This is stock number 21J14AA. We are here at Summit Automotive in Fond du Lac, Wisconsin. You're new and used Jeep and Jeep Cherokee headquarters.  This is a Trailhawk package. It has the 3.2 liter V6 Pentastar motor which pumps out 271 horsepower. This Jeep has been fully safe and inspected by our service shop as a fresh oil and filter change. All the fluids have been checked and topped off and this Jeep is 100% ready to go. Brilliant black is the color. We shoot all of our videos in 1080p 60 frames per second. So if you have HD capabilities on your computer tablet or smartphone device turn them on right now because it is definitely your best way to check out the quality and condition of the vehicle before seeing it in person. And if you want to check out all the photos on this Jeep in the upper right hand part of your screen is a link to our website. Click that and check us out there. This one has the Firestone Destination AT. Tires these are P245 65R17s and they have probably about 80 to 90 percent of the tread left on them. It comes with the painted and polished aluminum rims. I always liked those rims over the fully painted ones. This is a one owner vehicle. Clean title history. Clean auto check. Front bumper is in excellent shape. I believe this one was purchased from us brand new and just traded in recently.  You get the granite crystal Jeep and grill inserts there. Projector lamp headlamps, factory fog lights and of course the red powder coated till hooks. Passengers side front fender is in excellent shape. No dents or dings on there. And the passengers side rim no scuffs or scrapes. As you go down this side of the vehicle take note of how clean the body is, how reflective and mirror like that paint is. We take these HD videos so if you are far away or even if you're close by you just cannot make the trip down but you're still interested in purchasing the vehicle. You can see the Jeep, hear the Jeep and have confidence in what you're looking at before you even get here. So that when you do get here there's absolutely no surprises. And that is why we offer the Summit Auto Fastpass option in the upper right hand part of your screen. A link right to our website where you can apply for financing, get pre-approved, see a payment quote, even appraise a trade. All from the comfort of your own home. Bacteries are just as new as the fronts. And it's really a nice feature to have that you can basically make this vehicle yours from your own home. You do get the dual chrome tipped exhaust with the B6, the LED tail lamps and the rear gate is in excellent shape as well. This is a manual raised gate, back storage area is like new, still has the trailhawk off-road kit. I believe there's tow strap and maybe some gloves in there. And it does come with the full-size spare tire and jack tools. Those seats do fold down for extra storage and you can see that those rear shocks are doing an excellent job holding that gate up. Shuts nice and solidly and as you go down this side of the vehicle, just as clean as that passenger side, I didn't see any dents, I didn't see any dings, I didn't see any scratches. Just really, really a nice, nicely kept automobile back rim, no scuffs or scrapes on there. And down the rest of the side, very, very clean. You get the heated power mirrors inside. The trailhawk package gives you the cloth and leatherette interior. There are no rips, there are no tears on those seats. You get the trailhawk stitched into the backrest and you do get the driver's seat height adjuster. All-weather floor mats, this one does have the cold weather group so those front seats are heated. You also have remote start on the key fob there, auto headlamps, power windows, power locks and power mirrors. You get the wood grain door trim there and as we hop inside the vehicle, we'll turn on the ignition here so you can see the miles and everything, 8,505 miles on this vehicle. And it's definitely as nice as the miles are.  Here you can set up that screen however you want. You get the heated leather wrap steering wheel, cruise controls on the right, Bluetooth and information center controls on the left and audio controls on the back of the steering wheel. This one comes with the 8.43C radio, AMFM and SiriusXM radio capabilities. You also have the factory navigation system on here. This is also where your backup camera shows up. You do have your heated seats and heated steering wheel there and you have your climate controls that you can control up here or you can control them down here. This one does have the start-stop capability, stability control. Down here is really what makes this a trailhawk. You get the four-wheel drive low as well as the axle lock, downhill assist control and speed select crawl control. Auto, snore, sport, sand, mud and rock settings. SD card, USB and an aux jack does have a nine-speed automatic transmission. And the passenger side seat and floor mat are in excellent shape. What's kind of cool is you get an in-floor or in-seat storage bin right there. Keep some valuables in there, out of sight on a mine. Passengers side seat, no rips or tears. This vehicle has never been smoked in and his headliner is very, very clean. You get 911 and assist buttons in that rear view mirror. And we'll take a quick look at the back seats and then we'll check out under the hood. Back seats are just as clean as the front seats. This one does have the side knee bolster airbags. There's actually 10 airbags inside this vehicle, so very safe vehicles. I've actually owned three. Trail Hawks myself has latch child safety system for any child car seats. Factory all-weather floor mats back here and you do get a 115 volt, 150 watt plug-in. These seats do fold down for extra storage and you can see just how nice and flat that they go.  Having those flat is a great thing. Child safety locks on the back doors. And we'll start it up and take a quick look under the hood. I would personally like to thank you for checking out the video today and hopefully from this HD video.  Now under the hood we have 3.2 liter V6 Pentastar motor. 271 horsepower engine base, very clean runs, very smooth. This Jeep has been fully safe and inspected by our service shop. Has a fresh oil and filter change. All the fluids have been checked and topped off. And this Jeep is 100% ready to go. And I don't think you'll find a cleaner 2016 with 8,000 miles on it anywhere. And I'd highly recommend this one from a quality and condition standpoint. And to see more pictures of this Jeep or one of our other 450 new and used. Cars, trucks, SUVs, minivans, Wranglers, Cherokees, Grand Cherokees. You name it we got it on our website www.summitauto.com. Full pictures and descriptions of every single vehicle from 2 locations all at summitauto.com. And if you'd like to check out more HD videos you can go to www.youtube.com. Remember to like, subscribe, and share on this video and all the videos that you see there. In fact in a second you will see a link to subscribe to our YouTube channel on your left. You'll be linked to more Jeep Cherokee videos like this one on right. If you have not been to our website on the bottom link to this vehicle on our website click those check us out. And we really look forward to helping you with this super clean 2016 Jeep Cherokee Trailhawk in brilliant black crystal pearl. Thanks again for checking out the video.


Welcome folks, we have the Dow industry is up 25, you get the Nasdaq up 28, S&Ps are up 3, Gold contract trading up $5.30 at $1306 an ounce, you have Silver up 5 cents, $15.38 an ounce, Light sweet crude, flat, $59.08 a barrel, notes and bonds, they just won higher price folks. Bottom line, you get the 10 year right now on two ticks, $122.24, 30 year off 10, $145.26. We get over and take a look at that 10 year first. What you're going to see out here, you back down today, you got only a million contracts traded, you're trading into I believe 1.7 million contracts and 1.3 million and 1.7 million. Bottom line, this 10 year and 30 year bond, they want, they go up into this January 3rd high. January 3rd high in the 10 year is 1.2317. King dollar, King dollar bottom line, it's down a bit today but guess what, the end volume is anemic, this thing wants to bounce, so we get some real divergence out here. You down 143 ticks, you get 8,900 contracts traded, you're going at the 21,000. So bottom line, the battle of the bulls and the bears continue inside the King dollar. Each time that we're going higher, volume dies in the vine, each time we're going lower, volume dies in the vine, one of them is going to win. That's the bottom line. We'll see how this baby does shake out. When we take a look at the S&P out here, what you're going to have with the S&P, the sellers are winning the day out here inside the S&P. Small caps still continue to be the weakest indices out here. When you take a look at the S&P, we hit a high out here today of 28.58 and right now it's 16 points lower than that. You're up about $0.75 and we expect as we're coming into this close out here, this thing is going to try to blast through the 28.41 which was 28.39 which was the low of today. I suspect we're going to be somewhere down into this 28.39. Nothing heavy but the bottom line is you are going to have a failure on price, on volume inside the S&P. Small caps did it again, meaning another failure. Bottom line, small caps are the weakest indices out here. You're only down $0.40 inside the IWM. You're $0.155 but that couldn't even make it near the highs which is $0.159.50. NDX100 is still the strongest indices. That being said, that's also giving it up. You have the Q's right now up $0.78. They had been up $0.78 and you get light volume out here. It looks to me that we got a nice little turn in the market coming. Stay right there folks. The next 60 minutes trading coming back to recap. We have the now at 12. NASDAQ up 24. S&P's up 1 coming right back.


So hello everybody, my name's Erica and I'm an educator of everyone from WIWON to elder hostel groups and I've along the way have taught everybody from grade school, like people in grade school institutions to post secondary to community programming and I'm also a storyteller. So I tell stories through the written word on stage and on the silver screen and via the web and these days I've been most excited about telling stories via web theories and documentary storytelling and I'm starting to explore along the lines of some AR and VR storytelling. I'm Mary I'm a Canadian educator with international and Canadian teaching experience again from kindergarten all the way up to adults. I'm also a multimedia artist and I believe passionately in community participation in arts and the ways in which technology can make that art happen right in natural and educational and community spaces and these days I'm exploring I'm very excited to be creating poetry films, augmented reality installations and community arts participatory projects. So just over a year ago I was just over a year ago I was trying to talking with the team behind the documentary screen screenagers and I was trying to arrange for a screening for our masters of educational technology program at UBC and so we were happy to pay their fee for the screening but as it turned out there was a problem and that problem was that our program is all online and so we would have to do the screening online. Now the people behind screen rangers they weren't comfortable with us doing an online screening of the documentary because they were afraid that one of our master's students might copy it and might start sharing it with their communities for free and we sort of had all sorts of different security walls that we could show them that we could do but they still weren't comfortable with the idea because this was their way of creating sustainable funding for their project was through paid screenings. Now as a documentary filmmaker that I have to admit that annoyed me. My team and I create we create documentaries to do social good to get people thinking and hopefully to have a positive impact out there so we want people to watch we want people to share and we especially want schools watching and sharing. However we do understand that to make projects such as screenagers you're looking at tens two hundreds of thousands of dollars so you do need to have a some sort of funding mechanism and something that's sustainable for them and I had to admit that their model was much more sustainable than the model I had in place at that time. So this has led us into researching sustainable funding models for storytelling and arts projects with OER and free aspects to them. Now we're purposely not limiting this to just projects that are OER and there's a couple of reasons for that but one of the main reasons is the types of people that are creating storytelling projects are often not educators. They might have educational value to their projects but they might not understand how that space works and they might be completely unaware of what an OER is. So what our goal is in the research that we've been doing the last few months is we're basically trying to create a resource of possibilities for both the OER community and also for that broader creative community. And so we began our research with this gentleman, his name is Said, wonderful fellow, he's up at the Emerging Media Lab at UBC and we started by exploring one of his first projects and so this is one of the earlier projects at the top there that the Emerging Media Lab did and it's called the Stanley Park virtual field trip. And the idea with this virtual field trip is they use photo, I always mispronounce a photogrammetry to basically map out Stanley Park as a virtual world. And so the idea is that this virtual world of Stanley Park is being shared online with other post-secondary institutions around the world and their hope is that other post-secondary institutions around the world will similarly create these different virtual worlds from places near their universities whether it's like the pyramids in ancient Egypt or like of Egypt or visiting the Roman Coliseum or all sorts of things like that. Now right now they're just at the stage of having mapped out the park. That ended up being pretty huge, which we're going to talk about in a second. But what Said's hope is is that other teachers at the university will come on board be interested in creating different educational opportunities in this and so one would be like potentially going down into the soil and learning about life underground or going back in time to when only the first peoples lived and used Stanley Park or even going back to like the geological origins of the space. Now as I said, the actual first bit has been huge and the Emerging Media Labs learned a bunch of things from it. Their funding model for funding these projects is very student driven so they count on both student volunteers and paid students along with their institution funding and their project specific grants and students work on a four month cycle with their semesters. So a few things they've learned from this is they need to have industry partners in there so that they're not reinventing the wheel and they also they need to start biting off their projects in smaller more manageable bites so that they work better with that four month cycle. Now in the whole conversation with Said we learned a few other things that have been issues and one of the things is when Said first sat down with me he said sustainable funding in Canada and he said well that's institution funding and grants and I said that's the problem that's not sustainable and I said and also those grants tend to go to the same people time and time again now Said said well that's because they've got a track record and I said well we've got a project right now that's got a track record of winning awards internationally is considered was was listed in 2018 as the top in the top seven web series in Canada and we're still getting turned down for that grant funding. So clearly we've got a problem here and that's what we're hoping to address. We interviewed a lot of really interesting people on projects which was the best part about this. It was a great opportunity to just reach out to anybody I thought was interesting. We spoke with a number of people. Marguerite Bairti her work is at the top she's got an institutional funding that is not sustainable and not comprehensive enough actually for her project. She has a university grant to help her build a database of 360 videos for Italian language learning and the grant covers the cost of a new camera and some of her travel expenses but not her time which I think has been an ongoing thread. I've heard this over the conference. When I spoke with Daniel Williamson managing director of OpenStacks and Open Textbook Initiative one of his key points really resonated with me. He said you have to build sustainability in from the beginning. It can't be an add-on and that made me think about well that's interesting and how does that apply to my projects? How does that apply to the people who we've spoken with? Their business model includes earned revenue from sales of hard copies of textbooks. Their online access is free. Partnerships with educational resource companies who provide added value media and technology components as well as grants from philanthropic foundations. A problem with his funding model though is that he would love to be able for them to be able to expand beyond their steam focus but that their current model does not allow them to do so. I also spoke with Todd, the co-founder executive artistic director of Motion Poems. Motion Poems is a non-profit dedicated to the creation of free distributed motion poems, poetry films. They started as self-funded artist and poet. He decided he could see the great potential in poetry films as a genre and expanded into a non-profit which is based on collaboration and partnership. They hire a guest producer each season who produces the films. The films are, each filmmaker is given a small stipend. He says they consider them volunteers but it's $1,000. In my world and where I've been receiving grants, that sounds like a lot of money but in reality it's not. They also offer lesson plans which they create in-house. So it's a great website if you're doing any arts education. I highly suggest you look it up. They have a great big comprehensive bank. And they share lesson plans sent in by other teachers and films created by other students. And the way they get their free rights, I asked them but open and he kind of didn't really know what I was talking about. So it's a free resource, it's not open. They partner with literary organizations and publishers to get rights to the poems that their filmmakers use. So these two projects are both funded through crowdfunding. One of them at the top there, Animals of the Great War. They are the woman who's working on that, Maria. She's went to crowdfunding because they're finding that they're not getting as much money in universities in Italy. But she also ran into some problems with that because the Italian market is not used to crowdfunding yet. So there's a few things she learned from that. She'd do it again, but she would make sure that it was more international the project she was doing. Now, the one who's been really successful with crowdfunding here is this one here, Kate Hackett. And so for her crowdfunded project, Classic Alice, she actually raised over $85,000 between three campaigns. And so she's been finding all sorts of mix and matches of ways of funding her projects. It's probably helped because she initially self-funded, so the audience knew what to expect. She's been finding Indiegogo to be the best crowdfunding campaign for her because they get the money even if they don't raise the full amount. She is playing around with Patrion and her own patronage on her website, which has been a really interesting thing to look at. And then on a smaller scale, merchandise and revenue sharing with the streaming sites. Sarah Radala is an immersive new media journalist whose VR stories are freely shared through her website and her channels, as well as bought and distributed through online newspapers and journals. Her funding model also includes direct sponsorship through organizations and corporations with a vested interest in VR content. One of Sarah's key tips was to take advantage of the shifting freelance community culture, making bigger projects more feasible. Sarah is also the co-founder and co-writer of Immersive Shooter, which is an educational website for those interested in learning how to film Immersive 360. Adding new interviews depends on the amount of advertising they have at the time, but she continues to add her own tips because it's her passion and what she loves to share. I also spoke with Jennifer Hicks. Her work swaddled, although self-funded, it is the actual work as crowdsourced, which I thought was kind of fun and wanted to share with you. Through Instagram, she connects with her viewers who then share their stories. They send their stories into her, and she incorporates those into an evolving, constantly-growing collage. She uses these as investments for future projects. Her artwork is released freely, and her revenue comes from running workshops around her participatory artworks. So where we found the most viable, sustainable models long-term has been with some of the technology companies that are creating storytelling platforms. And so there's two of them. There's a smaller one, Elementary, where they ended up getting turned down from any sort of angel investment funding because the people they were pitching didn't understand why storytelling was important, especially in education. And so they self-funded initially. And now they're looking at models where teachers have and students have access to the platform for free, but then they do institutional licenses. And then there's a lot of, they actually have a product here that could be useful in the corporate world as well. So they're going to be looking at some pay-to-play things around that and some freemium models with, you can get a certain amount for free, and then there's kind of a pay-for-play buy-in. FUNZEE is, they've done lots of businesses in the past. So very quickly, angel investors, partnership organizations, and we will be sharing more of this on our website this summer, story2go.ca. So you'll be able to get the full interviews there as well as the case studies built around them. I think, we've got more or two of your questions. Oh, we do, I'll show it to you.  Casting my route, I think it's really interesting, both, I was tweeting away as you were going, are you going to share your presentation? Yeah, so we are going to share a presentation and the reality is one of the resources we're building with this whole thing is to have a database for storytellers, for educators, to, well, yes, partially to connect, so they can connect with each other, but also so that anybody can access all that stuff for free and share it around so that you can see what, like see how other people did it and see what maybe might work for yourself. Great, super, I'll look forward to it. I like the narrative for trade funding and that kind of sustainability stuff, which doesn't really go on in this space in the UK, I don't think. So it's just some really interesting examples here. Yeah, and so just so everybody knows, don't expect that to be available next week, it'll probably be available this summer. That's the goal. Thank you. Thank you.


This is a topic that up until this point no one else has touched on but I'm hoping that this video will inspire other creators to talk about this because we already know the effects that a smear campaign will have on the victim or target but what hasn't been talked about is the effect that it has on the narcissist and their flying monkeys. Narcissists start smear campaigns for a number of reasons such as to justify their actions, to silence their target, to control the narrative, to influence other people to take their side, to build relations, to isolate the target, to play the victim, for sadistic enjoyment, to sabotage their competitor, to punish you, to take revenge so that they don't feel bad about what they did to their target, to minimize what they've done or it could be in response to their jealousy or resentment or to small slights or to feel powerful and look superior because they don't want to feel less than anyone else so they have to work hard to make sure you're less than them or it may just be to shift the blame because you know things that they don't want people to know so they want to show everyone that you're bad and that they're good because they can't deal with the guilt and shame. So there's 15 reasons why narcissist starts smear campaigns. Eckhart Toll is a spiritual teacher and self-help author and he has said for what you do to others you do to yourself which is very true that it's an excellent summary for this video that narcissist and their flying monkeys are keeping you in captivity where you are imprisoned and confined, you're held hostage because you're involuntarily controlled by an outside influence but so are they because they're connected to a system and network so they're in a virtual reality because the true reality does not function in that way reality is the true situation and the problems that actually exist in life in contrast to how you would like life to be so they're just tuning in tuning in to what other people want them to see they're not seeing the whole picture they're watching you like a reality show because they understand that you are in the true reality but they're treating it as a game they're judging you they're pushing your buttons in an attempt to harm you because they're sadistic they enjoy hurting you they have nothing else to do with their lives they have no purpose their only pleasure is your pain because they all have personality disorders or mental illnesses otherwise they would not engage in abusive behavior because they would understand that it is unwanted it hurts harms and distresses you they intimidate and humiliate you because they're looking to gain a feeling of power purpose and control over you which they will usually do by focusing on something that is unique about you by praying on existing insecurities or creating new insecurities because they're trying to hurt you and they're hoping that you will internalize it and blame yourself when it actually has nothing to do with you at all they are bullies they're people who habitually seek to harm and intimidate those who they perceive as vulnerable and studies have shown that those who bully are far more likely than average to have experienced a stressful or traumatic situation in the past five years so their bullying is a post-traumatic stress response it's a response to their trauma because they don't know how to positively respond to stress so they bullied you as a coping mechanism to manage their painful and difficult emotions because they have low self-esteem and they're too weak to deal with it so they mask how they feel about themselves by focusing their attention on you and they try to avoid any negative attention directed at them by deflecting because they don't want to look at themselves they hate themselves and they hate their lives research shows that those who have been victims of bullying are twice as likely to bully other people the narcissists and their flying monkeys were victims in the past and they may be victims of something now but they bully you as a defense mechanism and because they believe that it will make them immune to being a target themselves when in fact it just creates an endless cycle of negative behaviors studies show that one in three people who bully felt like their parents don't have enough time to spend with them so the narcissists and their flying monkeys are likely dealing with feelings of rejection and they are also much more likely to come from households with arguments and violence they may also be uneducated people maybe their parents couldn't afford for them the proper education so hatred and hostility is normal to them and studies have also shown that bullies are more likely to feel like their friendships and family relationships are not secure so in an effort to keep their friendships they feel pressured to behave in a certain way even if they don't feel comfortable doing it when their behaviors are actually counterintuitive they have the opposite effect to what they're intending because these behaviors will affect their future development and it will increase their risk for many negative outcomes it will also impact their children as children are always watching and listening to their parents and they mirror their parents behavior so if they're taught that this type of behavior is okay they're likely to end up repeating it in school and bullies are more likely to drop out of school than their peers they're at an increased risk of experiencing depression anxiety personality disorders and psychological distress they're more likely to abuse tobacco alcohol and street drugs and they're also more likely to engage in early sexual activity being a bully as a child or teenager increases the odds of them breaking laws they tend to have four times the rate of criminal behavior than those who don't bully they're also more likely to carry weapons and they may develop sociopathy or psychopathy the smear campaign will destroy the narcissist and their flying monkeys research shows that it affects a person's home life narcissists and flying monkeys have problems with long-term relationships and they may be abusive towards their spouses and children they also have a harder time securing and maintaining employment and they're more likely to have children who become bullies which just begins the cycle all over again as it produces generational trauma so it carries down their family line as well a significant number of flying monkeys are also victims of other people in a study it was found that by the age of 30 one out of four people who bullied had a criminal record the males had greater tendencies to be abusive in their adult intimate relationships and the females were more abusive to their children the research discovered a correlation between bullying and a range of social problems which includes employment difficulties alcohol and drug dependency and divorce they're also more liable to suffer from depression and more likely to self harm or seriously contemplate a tent or commit suicide the smear campaign does not only affect the narcissist and their flying monkeys it also affects innocent bystanders they don't step in because they either fear the power of the narcissist or their flying monkeys or because they want to avoid being exposed as someone who reported other people's wrongdoings or reveal their secrets which is understandable although it is also what perpetuates the situation but they believe that nothing effective would be done even if they did report it which is why they're so reluctant to intervene studies have shown that bystanders also suffer negative outcomes as a result of witnessing bullying they often react to the emotional experience but they may then align with the flying monkeys and learn to blame the targets or they may accept their own indirect failure by failing to intervene which carries a lot of guilt and shame and it leads them to believe that those with power are allowed to initiate a conflict attack and behave aggressively while also achieving an upgraded social position as a result of their behavior to where they may even adopt the same antisocial behavior to take advantage of opportunities they may have increased use of tobacco alcohol and other drugs as well as increased mental health problems including depression and anxiety the smear campaign creates feelings of sadness and anxiety in children who witness it it creates a sense that the world is not a safe place and it can greatly affect their capacity to concentrate and to learn it has a devastating impact on all members of the school community it causes them to learn attitudes and behaviors which undermine the ability to cooperate to coordinate themselves with their peer group and to respect other people's differences and rights the reality is that the smear campaign puts everyone involved at the risk of numerous psychiatric issues including depression anxiety panic disorders suicidal thinking or behavior and agorathobia where people may develop a fear of open spaces crowds or situations that may be hard to escape from these problems persist even when the target is not like a present in the environment in reference to research published in JAMA psychiatry bullies have additional and different risks to their own targets and they are even more likely than their targets to develop a psychological problem with a four to five times risk for developing antisocial personality disorder which may include sociopathy or psychopathy described as a lack of empathy lying and criminal behavior they're five times more likely to experience depression and they're 10 to 25 times more likely to develop very various panic disorders they engage in bullying because they have emotional problems which includes low self-esteem feelings of worthlessness or inadequacy loneliness anxiety stress or conflict in the home and a history of trauma or abuse and it makes them highly identifiable because as a result of their emotional problems they will show an over concern with popularity or being in charge of other people but ironically they're likely to have feelings of social isolation and difficulty connecting with people socially they may also be aggressive and reactive because they're easily frustrated they may have difficulty handling conflict as a result of their negative view of people and also because they have a positive view of violence and aggression and they may have friends who are bullying other people the smear campaign has a lasting damaging effect on the narcissist and their flying monkeys but i have no sympathy for them as they chose to side with the narcissist without hearing the full story they chose to believe a lie without giving you the opportunity to state your case and regardless of that there is no justification for what they do they chose to become your enemy but as Eckhart Tolle said for what you do to others you do to yourself and this is evident in the studies and research that i have referenced in this video the smear campaign will destroy the narcissist and their flying monkeys thank you for watching if you found this video helpful please give it a thumbs up share your thoughts in the comment section hit the subscribe button to receive the notifications if you would like to support the channel you can donate at paypal.me slash narc survivor you can book a one-on-one with me on my website it's narcsurvivor.co.uk thank you for watching and i'll talk to you soon


This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Sonnes and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread that's right here on the fan dual podcast networking at number fire dot com We're today. We're talking more NFL draft this time with Dr. Eric eager a pro football focus getting his thoughts on the number three pick And other things were regarding the NFL draft and betting it for this year. My name is Jim Sonnes I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire dot com joined here as always by dr. Ed Fang You can find his work over at the power rank calm and Ed I'm glad that we're talking today because I know nothing about soccer and there was this whole Super League discussion this week I had to text my high school friend who knows soccer and like I descend the Michael the Michael Scott gif of explain this to Me like I'm five years old. Luckily. I've got you Ed Explain to me what the heck this the Super League thing is please for a layman So so first of all, let's talk about European soccer, right? Right now each All the top clubs in a country play in their own league, right? So the Premier League in Britain the Bundesliga in Germany And then there's a European-wide competition called Champions League that puts the best of those leagues and you have to qualify in order to make it to Champions League So the Super League was this idea that some of the top clubs were gonna make Instead of doing the Champions League, they were gonna still play in the domestic league But instead of Champions League, they were gonna form this own Super League where they would play midweek I think it was either the idea was there would be 20 teams and 15 of them would be permanent members so they couldn't be relegated out of the league and The response was really interesting to me because the biggest argument against this was that it was a big money grab To which I say yes, you're absolutely right. It is a big money grab but you have to think like why is it a big money grab and It is because a lot of people would watch it would be some incredible soccer every week watching these top clubs play against each other and It's interesting from my perspective because I feel like I'm just this capitalist pig That's the only person in America or the entire world that actually thought this was a good idea I thought this would be great soccer and I think it would have generated more interest from everyone in Watching more European soccer. It's something that I really enjoy watching, but I don't really get much time to do it And when more people are watching European soccer, they're gonna want to bet on it So it would have been really a boom for for sports betting as well Everything kind of fell apart when the the people on in Great Britain decided they uniformly hated this And and it kind of fell apart. So it was like it was kind of an incredible 48 hours but I Just think you know the sports is not about fans, right? Sports is a business Yeah, and it's kind of interesting for me to think about how much of a capital is pig. I am I actually really don't think I am in real life But right the same thing could happen in college football, right? Okay, there's been a ton of articles this week It's the same idea Michigan, Ohio State, Oregon USC the top 16 teams form a super league At the exclusion of all other teams and that would be different because that would kind of you know They would they would actually have to leave their conferences because they're not gonna play that many extra games I Mean the meteorites would be incredible right? I mean they would they would be sickening how big Well, if you make the the college football playoff be every week. Yes, it would be sickening numbers basically. Yeah So you know, I mean you hear people say like oh, I don't want to play good teams every week You know like some of these soccer fans are like, but you watch the NFL So so yeah, it's been interesting for me to think about and I'm yeah So see this is the perspective of someone who roots for a bad team. This is me I'm thinking huh. I can get rid of Ohio State in Michigan Open things up a little bit the big 10 Yeah, yeah, okay, we'll get rid of them Honestly Get rid of everyone else who's good. If we just make it like Northwestern, Illinois Rutgers Like cool sign me up Iowa. Yeah, I was good. I don't know if I want to keep Iowa. You could probably take Iowa Like we need to put the bar real low here at if Northwestern like if they if they do what you wait for Whatever was saying like okay, we're gonna ban you and we ban all those other teams like if we can ban those other ones and make it Just be Northwestern versus Rutgers sick sign me up if Northwestern's ever gonna win a national championship It's probably gonna have to be as a result of this college football super league. I'm desperate ed. I'm not opposed Like great deaths. I think that's an interesting perspective from you. Um, yeah, it would be easier I mean, let's let it be noted that Northwestern has won a big 10 West championship within the last two years twice Well, yeah, they've won two big 10 West championships with right in the past couple years. It's it's not it's not, you know It's not they were never gonna win the championship game because they were gonna get just run through Sure, I'd like to not have that part happen at least at least you made it to the championship game true All those other teams had zero probability of winning winning that championship game Until we ban Michigan in Ohio State and we make it Northwestern versus Rutgers 15 times per year. They just play scrimmages against each other. I'm in man. Let's let's sign me up So just a couple thoughts about that like the idea that you wave is gonna ban these top clubs from their competition is a joke they need those top clubs that that's completely not happening and As much as I kind of like these super league ideas like the thing in America would be that that would Probably destroy the NCAA tournament. Yeah because of the the structure of of you know, those Those big programs kind of leaving the NCAA and I mean, I mean, maybe there's a way they can fix it Then maybe there's a way they can just make football leave and then everything else could stay the same. So Anyways, I thought it was a great. I thought it was a great 48 hours of drama I mean like it's fun to think about you never happen It is fun to think about the idea of having Alabama Ohio State on a random Saturday.  I'm sure there's somebody at Google thinking about how many billions of dollars they can throw at that right now Oh my goodness. Yeah, the streaming wars heating up by totally disbanding college football conferences. That is next level. I love I mean Someone someone at Amazon and Google are thinking about this that that is And they'll drop 16 billion dollars on the media rights deal and it'll be like One 190th of their annual income and it'll be just fine We're gonna talk about the actual college football guys coming into this year's NFL draft the doctor Eric eager a pro football Focus he has a data scientist over there. What are the hosts of the pff forecast podcast? We're talking about betting on the NFL draft trying to Balance your own evaluation these players with what you're reading from a reporting perspective and how that leads to edges in betting We'll talk to with dr. Eger about that in just a little bit But first a quick reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast Kentucky Derby Podcasts coming up next week. We're gonna talk about that So make sure you subscribe for that to get it right as it goes up and all of our other stuff here on covering the spread If you like what you hear if you win some money based on the bets make sure you leave us a rating and review as well What's going on sports fans? 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Eric eager now find his work over a pro football focus pff.com And also on the pff forecast podcast and get his thoughts on the number three overall pick in this year's draft and betting the draft for 2021 covering the present Let's bring dr. Eric eager into covering the spread to talk about this year's NFL draft And I've been listening to you guys a lot over on the pff forecast podcast So I feel like I know a lot of your thinking which is refreshing. It's been fun to listen to and I appreciate the info How are things going for you Eric so far? Things are going well. It's fun to talk to you guys again We haven't had games in a while other than FCS, which I think would take a true degenerate to bet But yeah, the draft has been you know, really fun sort of whirlwind of trying to understand what the markets mean and sort of where Everybody's thinking.  I have a little bit. Okay. We've been collecting data. This is like the first year. We've collected all of FCS And I think that that'll end up being the the reality moving forward here Which is interesting and to sort of see You know and watch some games on the weekends You know now that soccer started again and stuff why I might not watch quite as much But it's been okay. It's been a nice diversion a little bit so When you had trey lance back in 2019 when he was at North Dakota state Would pro football focused specifically watch just those games in order to get like the top end product because it wasn't just him Was that just to get him or if you always had FCS data just expanding it this year Yeah, that's a great question. Usually what we'll do is we will take on requests from NFL teams to to You know, basically collect certain conferences. So Um, for example, there was one year where we collected Um, you know for dallas goddard. Uh, there was one year we collected for trey lance Um, the the kyle dugger played for lonore ryan. We collected his conference that year We've never collected all of fcs at once, but we will collect for players who are considered, you know Highly like i've been barge last year was a from st. Thomas or yeah No, st. John's uh in minnesota division three school. We collected all of the myac that year Just so we could give uh, you know our team clients the the data Nice, that's uh, nice to have that next looking forward to next year too. It should be a lot of fun But I just want to talk to you about this draft betting process in general If you feel like you've had more interests this year because I feel like last year was unique in that There was nothing else going on. So we had our ability to Dump all of our energy and our focus into the draft if you felt that carrying over into this year as well If you feel like an increased interest on from you personally Well, I think for me personally for sure. I've really enjoyed, you know, we we my my colleague george and I do the You know the analytics mock where you use our projections But I've also dived in a little bit more into I would call the the market implied mock Which is looking at sort of how the markets would pick You know and the the interesting thing I've noticed from this year and I you guys are probably very privy to this as well Is last season there were a lot more markets available and a lot more markets available early I think this year. I mean you guys led the way a little bit at fan duel draft kings Opened up. I think it was mac jones 18 and a half That was like the only overunder that they had on the site for about a month there And you know some other places bet online, you know, uh, you know Offshores and things like that like there were there was not necessarily as many outs available to people who wanted to bet the draft As last year which makes sense. I mean because there was nothing to bet on last year except for like madden sims And you know brady versus paid man in golf So like the I get that but then that was kind of interesting in terms of forming opinions Like you really didn't have the richness of the marketplace. Um, you know a month ago that you do today Is that tough too? Because with the markets opening up now, we've had more time to collect data Which means you're not going to find as many inefficiencies Has that that been difficult trying to spot the inefficiencies when there are just fewer spots to find them? Yeah, well, I think that the you know the books that that hang lines up there that aren't copying other books Like obviously they're taking a risk the longer that they wait to get into the marketplace The the more that the consensus has been pounded into place now, you know all these books I think with with props like this have lower limits. So there's still going to be inefficiencies I mean for example today when the when mac jones eclipsed just in fields as the as the favorite to be the third pick There was another you know on draft kings. There was another book that sort of had it flipped So you could have had an arbitrage opportunity for a for a small amount of time Um, you know limits notwithstanding. So there it is like less efficient But it's obviously as we approach the draft and things, you know, sort of coalesce They'll become, you know, less and less of more and more efficient less and less opportunity And and you know having those markets open for like a month earlier last year I think just drove us to that consensus more quickly So Eric, I'm really excited to talk to you about the NFL draft Chris Andrews was on visa in this week talking about how they've never made a dollar Putting up this market, which which gives me kind of excited about things What are you parsing through reporting? Are you doing analytics or what are the tools? Are you just listening to people in the league? Well, there there are a lot of great resources I mean benjamin robinson as you guys know does the grinding the mox. That's a great tool or ifa song with the Athletic does a great great job with his consensus board. We have context within the league now You know, they're tight lipped, but you can sort of get an idea of you know from what people are asking us and things like that And a lot of it is just, you know, we also have our mock draft simulator Which by the way made it to nfl.com this week where you can parse through that data and see what fans are doing And again, like the wisdom of the crowds is really an effective tool and you know as long as There are enough independent pieces of information. I think that that information is extremely valuable And again just following the markets like, you know We had an idea that zack wilson might my betting partner and I, you know, bet it at minus 167 that he would be the second overall pick Now it's you know, now it's trending towards, you know minus 5,000 You could almost assume that that's a lock, but there are other situations as we'll talk about with justin fields mac jones And tray lance with that third pick You know, I think is anyone's guess at this point and then you're you're sort of looking and you're sort of logically going Through it and saying well, if this is the number for justin fields, what does that imply? You know, what would my intuition and prior say? Okay, does that make that a good bet or not? That's kind of where where it's going and sort of thinking through, you know, what teams need what teams have done historically All those things are I think Valuable once you sort of get a baseline prior set from the the marketplace itself Now I do want to talk mac jones, but I also you mentioned zack wilson I think that's an interesting point here because I know pro football focus has zack wilson very high In their player rankings for this year Did that inform your decision to take zack wilson at number two overall? Or was it kind of reading the tea leaves in the reporting or was it the the confidence you had based on your numbers at pff? Uh, all the above. I mean for me, you know, I wrote a piece about just or about uh, zack wilson right during his bowl game Against ucf and you know, it was one of those where With respect to justin fields, I thought fields is that You know statistical profile going into 20 20 was a little bit better than trevor lorenz's and you know, even though he had A long haul to go to overcome the prior that we all had that lorenz was going to be the first pick Two years after he beat alabama in the in the in the title game Um, you know, what ended up happening was that zack wilson even after you adjusted for the week schedule that byu had After you adjusted for kind of the week supporting cast at byu gave him and the circumstances He ended up having like literally the best statistical profile in the whole class And so even though I think it was he still didn't eclipse what we needed to see to have him overcome lorenz Right in the prior that we had on him and that you know the some of the things he had to overcome And he was kind of graded on a curve because of cobit and all that kind of stuff It was a fairly solid move for me to say well He's probably the it has the potential to be the most special quarterback in this class and as such Like he's probably the number two pick If you add it all up and then the question is is how close is fields to him? When you look at two versus three or you know, one a one b and one c Yeah, for sure Let's get on to matt jones.   Well, that's a 33 percent Do you have a three percent edge on that? Um, if you if you assume that lance is a little bit weaker than both of them Then that edge grows um, and if you You know Again, and if you even if you assume that that matt jones has a little bit of a lead It's it's it's going to require quite a bit Uh to overcome, you know the 250 as as being a negative ev bet So that that was kind of my my logic now and as I said on the pfa forecast this week now You know when once those guys start getting into that plus 125 to minus 125 range I'm probably not betting it just because like I do think anything can happen there And even though I wouldn't trade three first round picks for matt jones With with respect to the draft you can't coach your bet I mean you you have to bet what you think is going to happen. Um, and you know, it's very likely There's a very good chance that the 49ers do something that we don't necessarily agree with Right and what's it like for you because you've had this field's Position for a while now and you're seeing people like adam shefter daniel jeremiah who are super plugged in talking about matt jones How does like how does that factor into things for you when you're looking at that bet? You already have in hand. Are you like I don't want to say like regret because I think obviously we've seen good movement It's hard to regret when you get great movement But what were your feelings on that once you saw those plugged in people talking about the pick the way they were Well, I mean, I think you have to respect the information You also I think you have to weigh the information by history and sort of with with respect to the 49ers you've You've seen You know john lynch get hired without much of a peep at all And in fact, I believe the the report was that he was testing whether or not they could keep the information in house Before he would take the job You know the groplow trade happened without much of a lead up the buckner trade happened without much of a lead up And then this past trade with The miami dolphins happened without much of a lead up So in my opinion, I don't know if this would be the time where we're really going to say well, you know Back then was different now is now is what we're really, you know Back then was different now that the 49ers are a leaky franchise. Like I just don't see that happening So Again that like pushes me back not not necessarily away from mac jones like the opposite of what they're reporting but just back towards the prior of possibly even outcomes for all those all those Picks maybe lance a little lower given, you know, sort of his pedigree having just one season starting an fcs But when you look at fields and mac jones, like if you view them as equally likely to be the pick Then then, you know that that you're still sitting on a really good number at plus 250 even out to like I would say plus 150, you know might have value Um, and again, I'm not disregarding the information. I think the information You know sort of gives credence to the idea that jones could go at three which none of us were considering But I don't think it pushes him out to the 305 favorite that he was just about a week and a half ago Yeah, for sure. Let's go under the past catchers in this draft. We have call pits and jamar chase Uh, that have over unders at five and a half and uh, davonta smith and jalen waddle the two Alabama guys at 11 and a half How do you stack these guys up and do you see any value? Yeah, I mean chase was always considered to be the best from the beginning. Um, there were numbers available for him Like I think he was even even with uh, smith when the thing when the whole thing started It was like maybe plus 125 each guy or or something like that and I got it on the way up at minus 140 149 or something like that Um, and now obviously, I don't think there's any value in betting him. I think on fan dual It's minus 900 or so minus 925 You know at that point you're you're sort of you can sprinkle some I think on jalen waddle the the thing You know as I talked to people within the league like davonta smith is a great football player But I think and played the best of all of them in college But um, you know, there are people within the league and maybe they don't matter vis a vis the the first wide receiver taken But they probably matter as far as the second wide receiver taken Who think jalen waddle is the better of the two players and the best wide receiver? In that class so to me and these numbers have moved I think since we talked about it on the forecast But if you can look at and you can find a market where you're looking at waddle versus smith I think waddle is the pick there And maybe even smith on an over 11 and a half draft position prop I think those are all You know when you're looking at the wide receiver marketplace in addition to you know And this number is moved as well over four and a half wide receivers taken in round one I think those are great value. Yeah davonta smith was initially minus 140 I believe to go under 11 and a half. It's now minus 110 So it does seem like sentiment drifting away from davonta smith and potentially toward jalen waddle as well The under frame is actually now minus 122 on 11 and a half So fan duel as well viewing jalen waddle ahead of davonta smith He mentioned jamar chase the prohibitive favorite to be the first wide receiver taken But there are some you know other positions where we could get them at you know, the favorites at lower numbers potentially Anyone standing out to you as being the first Person drafted their position is being undervalued right now. Yep. And this is one You guys had I think have the best number at at fan duel I like javante williams at five to one to be the first running back I know that has opened and you know, some of us got it at seven I think it went all the way down to three to one for a while and now Yonaji harris I think is is growing as the favorite there But there are some issues with with him as the first running back for one Running back is just that position where some team randomly takes Clyde inwards a layer at the back half of the first round or some team You know the the 2018 draft barkley went first, which is a lock But then you know the next running back taken were guys that people didn't like like sony michelle and Rishad penny where which were worse players than nick chubb. So like, you know You know the the fact is is like I think a running back gets taken in round one And I think it surprises us a little bit. Williams is I think the best running back in the in the class So I like him there. I you know the the other one and this is this is you know This number I can I've seen it anywhere from eight to one and you guys have it at five to one at fan duel christian barmore being the first defensive lineman taken This is where you can exploit the fact that defensive lineman includes more than one position because You know quitty pays the favorite You know jailen philips. I think is is closely behind both those guys benefited from gregory or so doing terribly You know the previous favorite gregory or so doing terribly in his You know workout But if a team is going to prefer an interior defensive lineman over an edge player barmore Is the only guy in that class worthy of a first round pick And so he could ran if one of those edges falls or both of the edges fall And a team prefers an interior defensive lineman You get a nice, you know five to one pop there if you go with barmore And it's also interesting too because like we have not seen NFL teams go away from interior guys like quinnan. Williams. We saw derrick brown. So There are still NFL teams that are looking for that. I think that that leads itself to what you were talking about Where there are still teams that will value that over an edge guy Yeah, and the edge class is about as bad You know last year wasn't great other than chase young but this year It's about as bad and they don't even have a top-end guy like a chase young. So Yeah, you're right. I mean you even go back to like christian wilkins was a 13th by miami Uh, you know teams will take defensive lineman on the on the interior, you know, uh The guy jivan kinlaw was taken I believe 14th last year by san francisco teams value that position and I think You know, there's some statistical evidence that if you get one of those big guys You know, it does help you in coverage weirdly because you can play More players deep because a guy can you know, eat up more blocker So there is some validity to being to taking those guys and if that's the only one and we'll talk about kyle Pitz I think if it's the only guy worthy of a first round pick that adds to their value due to scarcity Yeah, interesting. So, uh, you can also look at how many players at each Position are going to go in the first round over at fandal. Are there any numbers there that that stand out to you? Yeah, you guys have I think the the best price here if i'm if i'm not mistaken So running back over a half as minus 225. I think you know, pittsburgh's a clear one there I think you you're even hearing buffalo who that would surprise me given how smart they can be Um, but you're hearing buffalo, you know talk about taking a running back high Tampa Bay could be another one. Although they just got Giovanni Bernhard I you know, I've seen this other places at minus 300 minus 325 But if you can get that, you know at 220 225 or less I think that's a pretty good one wider see where the market has moved drastically. So I think I got over four and a half wide receivers at minus 160 You know, it's my anywhere from minus 200 to minus 310 now I think that price is actually pretty fair if you look at you know the top three guys And then you have rachad bateman. All you need is one of terence marshal elijah more Cadarius tony or rondell more to get over that number and that seems pretty fair to me Um, the last one that I that I do like Um is over six and a half offensive lineman Um, you were able to get a plot that opened at minus 150 And it went to about plus 110 now it's minus 118. I think minus 118 Is still a bad able number there. Yeah six and a half is a big number historically for offensive lineman But when over last year it sounds like the sentiment on this year's class is similar the testing numbers for lollies guys has been very good I mean shocker, you know, they're all pro days like and you wrote a piece about pro days versus the combine and stuff like that but It does make sense and actually what we have you here I did want to ask you about panacea well because And we got him jamar chase up there kyle pits all in conversation for those fourth and fifth picks I mean like I I don't want to ask you for betting stuff I didn't ask you to prepare stuff like this, but like if you're the bangles at five What are you doing there? Are you going with suell? Are you going with jamar chase kyle pits? If he's there, how do you view that from their perspective? Uh, that's a tremendous question because I think it change like so If I'm the bangles I have riley reef. I have jonah williams a player. I invested a top 15 pick in But who hasn't played much more than 10 games in two years? Um, my quarterback is just coming off an acl has not proven himself yet to be like a mom And I had this conversation actually with somebody who you asked me this very question And I said if you have them at homes, I would take chase or pits because My quarterback can my quarterback can do fine with the second round lineman And a and the first round receiver offers such a great benefit But you know, let's assume pits is off the board at four I would take suell over chase if I was Cincinnati because I think I can get A receiver in the top half of the second round that can complement tea higgins As well as uh, tyler boyd, um better than I can get an offensive lineman there That would help me protect burrow if if my three receivers were chase Um, you know chase higgins and and tyler boyd that that is a little bit like that's a variance versus mean argument Like I think the mean outcome for a wide receiver is probably higher But the variance is higher too and and right now with burrow you already have two really pretty good receivers If you decrease the variance associated with injury risk and all that kind of stuff by going with suell Uh, I I think that that's where you want to go Yeah, okay. I think that makes a lot of sense for sure any other bets standing out to you based on Where the currents are market or markets are currently Yeah, it could be any book based on wherever you see the best number Where are you seeing value still lingerie here as one week left? Oh, that's that's a great that's a great question. I you know right now, um, Ah man, uh, and now you have You know the one that the one that might be a nice Uh, it's Yeah, I'm gonna I'm just gonna go like I think I think tray lance under six and a half draft position is is where to go that the thing that the The the people sort of I don't know if they really saw this coming But when miami went from three to 12 to six I think everybody looked at them at that sixth position and said Well, they're gonna get the best of pit suell Or chase there and that's why that pick is so valuable Whereas when I see it, I think to myself, okay They're going to have that because the Bengals are sort of locked in they're sort of old school. They're not trading the pick They're gonna probably take suell or chase there If if if I look at I say well, they're gonna dangle that pick over denver's head Denver having a bunch of young players on on rookie deals in the skill position spots If it goes, you know If if fields lands there or lands lands there They're going to be able to I think move from three to let's say nine for a huge haul You know by by doing that pivot there and as such I think lance goes before pick seven as a result of that Yeah, I think the getting back in front of detroit given the fact that detroit very much could be in the quarterback market Makes a lot of sense if you can get two trade downs in one draft, I guess, you know, three trades total Why not do it for sure Miami a sharp organization? So Definitely would make a lot of sense that is dr. Eric eager make sure you follow him at On twitter at pff underscore Eric check out the pff forecast podcast as well Eric good luck with the justin fields and every other bet you've got going on and hopefully we'll talk to you again here soon Hey, thanks for having me on guys. This was fun Covering the future Big thank you once again to dr. Eric eager a pro football focus for swinging by and breaking down Betting on this year's draft makes you check out the pff forecast podcast a link to that is in the show notes over on number fire Dot com and we talked a lot of mac jones and justin fields and ed We haven't gotten to talk to zack wilson yet And I thought that what eric was saying was fascinating because I actually agree with him on most things with zack wilson I've used zack wilson and justin fields as being Like the 2a and 2b in this draft behind trevor lorence. I like zack wilson a lot and I feel like Because we've grown so fond of justin fields. It's led to a lot of Negativity around zack wilson and I'm like I want to be protective of a zack wilson. I'm like, yes We should pump up justin fields, but let's not have any, you know dry buys of zack wilson in the process What are your thoughts on zack wilson? Yeah, I don't know. I mean personally like from what I've seen him play and from other stuff I've read i'm not particularly high on him as an nfo quarterback But honestly that doesn't matter in this discussion, right because it's all about Where he's actually going to go and I think that's really important, right? Like what you think a team should pick should have nothing to do with your analysis of trying to bet this draft, right? You just just put that away and despite my relative skepticism about wilson like he's going to be the second pick and At this point, like I think I saw a minus 3000 somewhere And was wondering if that's still valuable, you know You can go over to grinding the mocks and out of the hundreds of mocks that the benjamin's collected There might be two in the last month that don't have them as a second pick So, uh, I don't know. I don't know. What do you think about minus 3000? I think I saw that yesterday somewhere. It's not a fan duel, but but somewhere else Well, the implied odds that are 96.77 percent Yeah, and if we're seeing every mock except for two saying zack wilson That would imply that there is value in Minus 3000 it's minus 5000 now the implied odds on that I can't do it in my head yet 98.04 um That's still probably Valuable right 98.04 implied probability But that's a lot to lay for a very little amount of money, right? So like especially because limits are low like, you know, you're not going to profit a whole lot there But yeah, yeah, exactly. So, I mean, I'm pretty sure he's going to be the second pick, right? I mean, there's right, you know, unless he Unless we get some videos of him smoking a joint like the night Draft or something like that. So yeah, you know, it's something You know, it's something that I haven't pulled the trigger on yet. I probably won't but Yeah, um, yeah, it's definitely gonna be it's it's definitely going to be interesting I mean, I definitely I do think he goes there and then all the drama happens at pick number three um, but Maybe something to profit on it makes me feel a lot better about my My being high on zack wilson that the people at pro football focus also like him too It makes me feel better about myself. It is, uh, you know confirmation bias, but sometimes I'm okay with that Let's move into cover in the future for today and ed you want to talk about the nfl draft and betting that Where are you seeing value in the markets right now? Yeah, for sure. I mean, and I think just as a general note, you know, I talked about how christ angers was saying They've never made a dollar putting up markets for the nfl draft, which I I just I just think is hilarious Uh, there's uh, you can go check it's on twitter of vison. You can kind of look in in my profile if you want to find it but um But just kind of as an example of you know, why you should be betting the nfl draft Um, you know, there was an article over on pff that noted how in the market for the first corner back patrick sirtan was kind of opened as the favorite a plus 110 which is about a break even probability of 48 percent Right now he's minus 300. So break even probability about 75 percent and You would never see that kind of market movement on a money line for an nfl game, right? So that just shows you like when markets move that much like Bookmakers are struggling with with those with with putting out those numbers, right? And I and I and I do think there is value there and you know, these lines move fast If you like something you should bet it like don't wait um You know, I'm actually now coming to think about I think I think uh, wilson was minus 3000 at vandal yesterday Yeah, he's 5000 now. So yeah, he's 5000 now. So that right, right? So um So anyways, yeah, let's let's talk about like the tools I use You know grinding the mox is is the tool that that dr. Yeager talked about and it's benjamin robinson Who uh, does this hard work of putting together all these mock drafts and it uses the wisdom of crowds, right? You know one mock draft is not going to be is not necessarily perfect by any stretch But when you put together enough of them Um, uh, you get a pretty powerful predictor and so one of the things that uh, his tool likes is nagi Harris So he's projected to be about the 22nd pick Um, so I definitely like his under, uh, I I got at draft kings at 30 and a half Uh, the number was lower at fan duel. So and and one of the things about benjamin's tool that he's shown is that, um Um The total the total mock draft tool tends to be better for later picks Um, the expert picks tend to be better for the first, uh, the the first picks the first 10 picks in the draft The way he's done is analysis So I tend to lean more towards his tool when i'm looking at late first round picks or or anything that is in that range Um, I am working on putting together kind of an experts, uh, type wisdom of crowds estimators This is definitely inspired by Matthew Friedman last week Um, I'm not going to talk about it today because that was kind of a frustrating experience this week Um, so for example a glance their line of nfl.com hasn't posted a mock draft since uh, march 29th So i'm going to wait for some of these, uh top experts to to post more updated information Over the next week and then uh, we'll probably talk about it next week Okay, I like it the nagi Harris number at draft kings is interesting because 30 and a half gets you the bills Whereas the fan dual number does not get you the bills and the bills I agree with dr. Eager where they're a very smart organization Where your prior going in is that they're probably not going to take a first round running back But like there is a need there and in theory if you can get the bills involved in the under for nagi Harris I think that makes a lot of sense because the Steelers are 24th They're in the market for running back, uh, so I think that if you can get both the bills and the Steelers encompassed in there That's pretty advantage. And I think that also goes back to the point where because these markets are a lot less Sharp, I guess I don't know. It was right to phrase it, but like they're a lot less, uh, drilled down Yeah, the The value of line shopping is so much higher Like uh, matty freeman's been tweeting about a bunch of different like arbitrage, uh, possibilities, um, and like those are available to us Most of the situations so it's not just the fact you can get Tremendous closing line value. It's also that you can get bad numbers if you're comparing one book to another So multiple reasons to be super in tuned to the nfl draft next week is going to be a lot of fun Looking forward to it for sure But before then we have to have fun this week on sunday because the nascar cup series is in talladega Super high variance track which means that there are a large handful of teams that can win Which means you have more leeway to bet long shots here If you want if you want to look at your then you would other tracks I'm looking at a long shot for this weekend, but not as a guy to win I think that cascara is a massive massive value for a top 10 at plus 550 You can find that at draft kings right now the other drivers around grahla are in absolute like lemon equipment like On the nascar entry list it lists the year the car was made These dudes are driving cars that were not made in 2021 whereas cascara is we've seen collag racing A couple times this year. They've been competitive There are very good xfinity series team that seems like they have plans to transition to the cup series next year Also be their fourth time racing in the cup series And they've already got a top 10 in the that span that came this year With aj allmendinger at the Daytona row course and part of that's because allmendinger is tremendous on row courses But you're not going to finish top 10 there if you're driving a lemon and they're not right now grahla Was in this car for the Daytona 500. We saw jason haley in it last year at Daytona He finished 13th grahla finished 28th at Daytona this year, but he was competitive He seemed to be running pretty well. He's running 16th when the race got delayed by rain He was running competitive lap times and that to me says They have the equipment to get the job done if grahla can run a clean race And he's done that plenty of times in other series before he has run Three Daytona races in the Xfinity series and in the truck series He has a win in those three races other two are both top five finishes So the talent's there. He finished ninth in talladega and a truck last year Talladega's not a place you can run. Well, if you're in bad equipment It is more equipment heavy than Daytona is but I don't think that grahla is in bad equipment based on what collig has done so far given the funding that they have And I know that he has a talent based on what he's done in the other series So getting him at plus 550 to finish top 10 is Too good for me to pass up. So I like that one quite a bit if you're looking for outrights You want to bet to win uh talladega my model does like kyle bush a lot of 16 to 1 He's at 7.6 to win in my simulations compared to 5.9 Implied I think that's the biggest edge uh from an outrides perspective over there Other guy that seems like is chris busher not as big of an edge there He's a 2.7 percent implied or 2.7 percent overall versus 2.0 Percent implied. So those are lower probability ones, but they do present good value So if you're looking for value, I think that bush and busher make a lot of sense in the outright market But I think if you're looking for a bet that is just Miss priced cast rala is your best route at plus 550 to finish inside the top 10 And I thinking back to when I was a kid I remember how much fun these couple of weekends always were like there was one weekend in In the n april where you had the nfl draft you had the kentucky derby I'm pretty sure there was a big Like it might have been a maniwether uh fight at some points on a saturday as well But like this is for me as someone who is a nascar nfl draft nerd who does enjoy the kentucky derby Like this is one of the best two week stretches in the sports calendar Yeah, absolutely. I mean, that's uh, I mean I think everything, you know, my attention gets taken so much by the draft It's good to talk to you about other things that are they're going on during this time Yeah, and nascar chief among them obviously nfl draft very secondary to nascar at all times for sure That is the only time that we have for today here on covering the spread Want to give a big thank you one more time to dr Eric eager for swinging by and breaking down the nfl draft Make sure you follow him on twitter at pff underscore eric if you want a link to the pff forecast podcast or search for it Uh, wherever you get your podcast, but also I do have a link there in the show notes over on number fire dot com Ed What is going on for you this week over at the power rank? Yeah, i've been writing about the nfl draft and uh, my free email newsletter You can check that out at the power rank dot com there will at least be one more Before the start of uh, the nfl draft next thursday Oh, also, I wanted to bring up quarantine corner. Yes one more time. So the Hemingway documentary Uh by ken burns is is awesome. I've been completely enthralled by the entire thing and um, you know, i'm a fan of hemingway I've read some of his stuff and it's kind of you know, he's he's like a macho kind of guy Like if you like football and you like to bet You're probably gonna like some of his books because that's the kind of that's the kind of duty was back then Um, but his life is so much more interesting than I knew so I kind of known that he was he was Within the first, uh allied forces that liberated paris at the end of world war two Really? So as yeah as a journalist, he somehow got himself to you know Be with the troops that that liberated paris. And so there's a story about how how earnus hemingway liberated paris Um And that was the kind of guy he was he's like, hey are people shooting at each other over there? I'm gonna head that in that direction But the whole truth about that whole world war two thing is so much more interesting than the fact that he just showed up at paris When it was liberated, uh, there's just so much more going on including a couple concussions and And a lot of drama with the the women that he was with so The whole thing is is so interesting like any little snippet.  I mean, I am um You know, I mean, I definitely love us can 30 for 30 Yeah, I was thinking about that when I was thinking about talking about this like the two eskibars and and some of the other ones The myrnavich project. Yeah, man. That is one of the best Documentaries I've ever seen at least for me personally. I'm not sure if everyone would like it But in terms of like father son type bonding Uh father son type story It was pretty amazing. So I do like documentaries. I mean, I don't like documentaries as much as I like novels Sure, but um, well, I was going to bring back if we're bringing back quarantine corner I was going to give a recommendation to you for another documentary to watch All right, when you were in boston, do you ever go to the isabella steward gardener museum? Oh, yeah, yeah, the the netflix thing about the robber. Yeah, it was amazing My wife and I were watching part of that. We got it. We got it. We haven't finished it yet You should finish it. It's worth it. I think it's like three or four episodes, but it's so fun Um, like what's it called just so everyone knows Oof This is a robbery. I believe I think it's called. This is a robbery if you search isabella steward gardener museum It's like it's a story about The robbery of the isabella steward gardener museum in boston, which is an awesome museum My wife and I went there when we lived in boston and really cool place Uh, but I didn't know the story at the time. What they do is they have these These frames hanging up in the museum Of where the art was stolen like they just kept the frames up of the stolen art pieces And so I was like, what what is this and I remembered that happening But I didn't remember the story behind it because I didn't I know I wasn't paying super close attention But like they have a whole documentary about it. It brings the mob into it They try to track down where stuff is and it's pretty fun So I'd recommend it if you if you are someone who enjoys documentaries but good stories They actually talked about that robbery on drunk history So I would say do a twofer you watch the The documentary then you watch the drunk history about it And I think you just kind of double dose on your isabella steward gardener museum history there So that's your next recommendation. Yeah, that sounds good. I mean that was like the biggest art heist ever Yeah, like 500 million dollars worth of art was stolen. I think so it was it was I'm not a big art person Like I I appreciate art, but I'm not it's not my biggest interest, but the documentary was fantastic So quarantine corner back Uh for your uncovering the spread make sure you check out add on twitter at the power rank and check out the football analytics show As well, uh, wherever you get your podcast We are covering the spread wherever you get your podcast there again, kentucky derby podcast Coming up for you next week. So make sure you are subscribed and as always if you like what you hear Leave us a rating and review. I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to calvin theobald our video producer for running the video side of things here today Thank you cal as always and thank you to everyone for tuning in Good luck to you with your nfl draft betting. We'll talk to you once again next week to get to set for the kentucky derby This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network


Right hello, welcome to the Lightning Talks for today. Your first talk is on regaining the sovereignty of your router from Lucas Lesarita Hello, everybody. Thank you very much for being here today on Sunday morning I really appreciate that you took your time and your efforts to be here. I have a long day yesterday But yeah, so today we're gonna talk about a very interesting topic that it's not just a legal Boring topic for lawyers, but it concerns all of us. Yeah, so I'm Lucas Lesarita. I'm work for FSFE I am a deputy legal coordinator, and I'm directly involved with this campaign well in order to talk a little bit what is router freedom I divided my presentation in three parts so first of one we're gonna see How it affects each one of us or why it's important and then we will see also some basic legal aspects in order to to understand what is going on on Europe a concerning router freedom and then The third part and the most important one how each one of you can take part on On this activity and have your own free router at home because we think that it's very important for us to enforce our rights and to have Control and sovereignty over our own equipment so What is basically router freedom? Well router freedom is the right that every customers has To use their own equipment at home or at work. So ISP internet service or providers they Usually they force their own routers to their customers and they don't allow We customers to use our wrong on router So router freedom is the right that each one of us has to use our own equipment when we are Connecting to the internet if you want to use a router that has installed the free software inside of it We can so and there's a lot of arguments I listed the four of the most important one But there and we're gonna see that effect This four arguments is already enough to see how that is important for each one of us The first one is well freedom of choice. We are we have this right to use The equipment that we want This is our right that it has been confirmed and has been protected by European Right law. Sorry. So the second argument is that when we have a router a free router or I mean a router that we have free software in it a router that we can choose to use its Privacy friendly so we use that in order to protect our own data Well from this qualified audience, we all know that all our data our communication our encryption our backups everything that is connected to the internet to go through our router and if we have some problems with that of course our digital sovereignty is Undangered well the third argument free competition and compatibility right there. Well ISP has created an entire market around The lack of router freedom. So if you want to to connect the internet They can provide you a very simple router without Wi-Fi. Ah, do you want Wi-Fi? Then you have to pay more for that. Oh, you want to use more computers to access the internet You have to pay more for that. So this is very bad for the user and besides when we have just a few Rotors manufacturers in the market We start to have it a monopoly and they have control our technology and FSE fee is It's completely different about that. We as users we must control our technology Not other people impose in their control over our own equipment and of course the security argument The security argument maybe for a few of us is the most important one because if there is some problems with the ISP router or If they are slowly providing updates a critical updates we Having our own equipment. We can install by ourselves a Program of software that is more secured that is based on community aspect and not just what ISP Things so basically these are the arguments that We are trying to push on and try to educate people to say yes Let's do let's use our own router because this is very important. Yeah So let's talk a little bit about the legal issues I promise you that it's not going to be boring. It's very It's very straightforward to understand so since 2015 there is this net net neutrality directive and in the article 3d is that every Citizen every citizen every European system has the right to use and to choose their own equipment. They call its term Of their choice and then in 2018 There is a very important piece of legislation saying called European electronic communications code saying that all the definitions that public authorities and and private actors all the definitions that applies to Equipment into applies to rotors must be Must be adjusted to ensure net neutrality. Well, but there is a small problem And let's see. What is this small legal problem? Some ISPs are telling that okay users have the right to choose their own router, but In fact, router is part of the public network. So if a router is not It's not property from users. They are ISP Property and we think that is very bad This discussion has reached the European level and Has reached the barrack a little bit mark is the board of European regulators of economic communications and they say yeah well, router is part of the Public network and then users have no right to choose it because it's our property, right? But we at FSFE we have this been fighting this war for years and in Germany we manage in 2016 to pass the rotor law that says that in fact the Network termination point that where the network the public network ends it Ends in the wall. So in the plug where you can put plug your modern or your router and Everything that's inside your home. It's your property and you have the right to choose your own equipment Yes, however This is not like this in all Europe. So we have conducted a research in that FSFE and we have Seen that it's not like this. They're in other countries people. Although these rules are already Present in European legislation in in those Countries who have already implemented that this European European rules international Legislation there are is still a Lack of awareness. So as we can see here a lot of countries Users cannot use their own rotors. So ISP by contract regulations, they impose their own rotors to users and they cannot choose their own equipment. Well and How here where things started to get interesting because we can do something about it and you can do something about it. So We divided in two things if you wanted to organize an activity in your own country Here in Belgium. Well in every European country if you wanted to start An activity in a campaign for router freedom We have prepared a wiki with a lot of information Beginning from zero how to speak with ISP how to speak with the national authorities And public authorities and how to organize yourself which arguments you can use which counter arguments you can use. So everything is Is is written on our wiki and Our work in the FSFE. It's all about community. So we Don't we cannot and we don't do anything by ourselves. It's our commitment it's everybody working together and raising our voice and showing to to public authorities showing to ISP that We have the right to use our own equipment. So we have prepared it Please use it go there check it try to communicate with your public With your political representatives in order to spread this board and in order to have your own router in your In your own house So since we are in the University here today, I have prepared Small homework for for for you. So tomorrow Monday or this week We will try to check router freedom by ourselves. This is very easy. This is experiment I think it's very good for you and for us in order to have a more precise panorama About router freedom in Europe. So what is the homework? What is the task first? Contact your or a random ISP in your region. So I think everybody has Connection to the internet you have an ISP in your home in your in your city in your region call them send a short email or if you are not Pleasant to if your ISP you are you are planning to change your ISP Okay, just contact your future ISP sending them my email and say Number two, I want to use my own router. I have bought my router in the bay I have bought my own router on on Internet I want to use it. I am allowed to do that and Maybe they will say yes, you are maybe you are not and then you ask for their login data Login data to public network. This is very important because In order to have your own router Working at home. You need your own login data Login data to public network. So Send them a message and say I want to use my own router. Please provide it. Yeah, the public network login data and Then let's see what's happened and then if they say yeah fine Cool if they say no, you are not allowed to do that. Please share your experience at community.fse.org and we are most Pleased to help you to get your own router or to To tell them that in fact you have the right to use your own router. So if you Want to try that will be it will be excellent for to to see what is the router freedom panorama in your region. Well Yeah, I think that's all that I really want to talk to you today I really appreciate your for you to come in today and if you have questions, please let's discuss it For Yeah, so in fact The barrack the the board of European Regulators, they are analyzing the technical aspects and they have provided the guidelines in order to how to do that in order to not Harm the public network. However, we do think that with subregulations We can do that but not restricted in the right to use is to use their own equipment. It's perfectly It's perfect perfectly fine to use our own equipment in order also to not to harm the public network Yeah Yes Yeah, that's a good question because then involves another type of of yeah legal considerations Yeah, here we would like to To at least at least at least enforce the equipment to have access to internet Yeah, because TV it's a little bit different But when we are wanted to have access to the internet Usually they do this combo thing and they put everything in the same box, but I would like yeah, okay So for TV it's fine, but I would like to have my own private connection to the internet and then Things he started to get a little bit messy. So this Example here is would be to have the rotor for for the internet Yeah, I think we're out of time. Okay. Thank you very much. Thank you very much again