Ambassador to El Salvador will be leading shortly and will take up his post there. Ambassador to victory. The President's will is on the right in El Salvador to make his progress. It's a photo opportunity. Thank you. What about the black points? They won't do more than that. Photo opportunity. Photo opportunity. Is that an invitation, sir? Yes, we're very pleased to have him here. It's President Abul Juf, the President of Senegal. Can you talk about the French response? The French done enough, Mr. President? Photo. Photo opportunity. Thank you. So, all the time, meetings and sneezing starts first on my commitment to open that door and try to walk right in on somebody's tagline. What did I interrupt? Do you want to continue? No, sir, I do not want to continue. Nothing will happen if you just said yes. Well, listen, I'm glad to see all of you here and I have a chance for a visit. And you can take a few minutes here. And as you know, I'm off to Florida and Texas this week to seek support within the Hispanic community for our Central American policy. Emphasize the benefits of our domestic policies with regard to the community of Americans of Hispanic descent. And in the last few days, I've been leading with some leaders. A few days ago, I met with 75 Hispanic supporters and leaders in the dining room. And just a couple of days ago, with several Hispanic leaders who were various professions, civil, legal, and educational. And this weekend, as a matter of fact, tomorrow, I'll be addressing the Hispanic Chamber of Commerce and the next day, the GI Forum National Convention in El Paso. And I want to express my appreciation for all of you and for your dedicated service. I believe that communication is important and we must take our programs, make them, our efforts known to the community at the local level. That's not easy because no matter what we do here, somehow the press usually finds something else to write and talk about and what we're doing here. And the positive effect, I think, of our economic program, one of which for all Americans, it certainly has had an effect on some of the problems in the community. The effective tax rate cuts, the reduction of unemployment, and re-education, re-establishing the quality education idea with the changing the curriculum and doing something to inspire teachers to stay in the profession at all. And the central American policy, which I know, from the polls alone is the least understood of anything we're doing. The polls will come out with the majority as opposed to what we're doing and so forth. Then they ask a question and find that the greatest majority in the polls don't know which side we're on. And the Saturday morning on my radio program, I'm going to try and explain again if I can in five minutes whose side you're on. My special assistant here, public liaison, Kathy Villa Pondo, she needs your support and expertise and suggestions so that we can reach the community better. And recently, I've brought Joe Sargado from the Department of Justice to work in the presidential personnel so that we can have a better input in our recruiting people from the Hispanic communities. Now, one last thing I want to say before I turn to you is I'm a little frustrated by the tendency of the press to psychoanalyze and tell you why you're doing things in public print. And of course, you've seen that everything I'm doing is all aimed at there's an election year coming. Therefore, belatedly, I am grandstanding in trying to prevent things with political purposes. Well, it is frustrating because the truth of the matter is long before I ever thought I would have an opportunity such as this. I do what was on my mind. I long believed that this country of ours has never established the proper relationship that it should have with our neighbors here in the Americas. And that's why when I did have this opportunity and came to me before I was even inaugurated, I met the president then of Mexico with a border. Subsequently, here after I was in office and met with President Donald Dredd. I'm going to meet with him again, but met with him before he took office but after he'd been elected. And it's why early on I made a trip to South and Central America and met with leaders there. And the message had to do with that dream of mine. I told him I knew about the various things that the United States had proposed and the ideas for better relations. I don't think they were ever properly followed up, but also I think the thing that was wrong with it was we're the big colossus of the North. And for us to suddenly say to our neighbors here in the Western Hemisphere, look, here is a plan. Well, that's the big colossus, big brother speaking again. So in my trip to every leader, I met with, I said, what are your ideas? How can we bring ourselves together as equal partners and allies in the Western Hemisphere? And bring about the proper development of these two continents and pointed out that from South Pole to North Pole, there's no place in the world like it. We all have the same pioneer heritage. We all worship the same God. We are all Americans. And I was surprised when I said that in some of those countries to find the reaction. They thought that we kind of grabbed off the name. Well, I pointed out, you can't go around saying I'm the United States. But we are all different. Yes, we're different countries. Yes, we have our own diverse ways. And that's fine. Nothing wrong with these sovereign nations. But where else in the world can you cross the border into another nation and still find your among Americans? We are all Americans, North, Central, and South. And what a force for good we could be with more than 600 million people in this Western Hemisphere. Developing, helping each other improve in the economy. Erasing those areas where there is extreme wealth and extreme poverty and no man between. Opportunity for everybody. And that's what it's all about and I better quit talking now. Eric. Well, Mr. President, and carrying out our function at the VA, we also have... I never think I'm going to be serious. Mr. President, we are all concerned that the commission may turn into critics of your policy. Not at all. Why not? Because we wanted a completely independent commission to find out something on us. For a long-range policy, they're going to remain independent. Now, I thought that was very interesting. All right. I am gathered here today for the public signing of legislation which proclaims September 3, 1983, a national day of celebration marking the 200th anniversary of the signing of the Treaty of Paris. What the United States will observe on September 3, of course, is much more than the anniversary of a distant diplomatic agreement. In a real sense, the Treaty of Paris marked the moment when America became officially or wanted to officially join the family of nations. A long and grueling war for independence had already been fought, risking their lives, their fortunes, and their sacred honor. Our ancestors had earned their freedom in the grim privation of Valley Forge and on far-flung battlefields throughout the 13 colonies. It's been a hard struggle, fought against what was then the mightiest empire on earth, without the courage of our people and their dedication to freedom, and without the help of France, our oldest ally, we couldn't have prevailed. But on September 3, 1783, eight years of heroic sacrifice meant their just reward. The Treaty of Paris officially recognized the independence of those 13 infant states, born of pioneer strength and a vision of freedom, and opened a great new chapter in the history of the world. If July 4, 1776 is the day when the American people represented by the Continental Congress declared their independence, September 3, 1783 is the day when our independence became an accomplished, recognized fact. The true birth of a nation forged in freedom and dedicated to a noble ideal that still inspires men and women everywhere. It's a special tribute to the great venture that is America that in the past 200 years, as our country has grown from strength to strength, drawing on our native dynamism and the ancient ideals of Western civilization, democracy has taken root in so many other parts of the world. Just six years after the signing of the Treaty of Paris, France began writing its own proud chapter in the history of liberty. Our English cousins, too, continue to evolve and expand their free parliamentary institutions. Perhaps the greatest tribute of all is the fact that today all the signatory nations of the Paris Treaty are themselves democracies, staunch friends and allies of the United States sharing our dedication to peace and freedom. So this bicentennial is not just a great event for America. It's a time of celebration and rededication for all peoples who cherish our ideals and who've contributed them to them here and around the world. And I'm particularly glad that we can share this moment with the representatives of England and France. And I also want to add a special word of thanks to Congressman Herb Bateman who introduced this legislation and to Senator Mac Mathias who represented his Marjorie Holt, Bill Bromfield, and Clint Zablaki and other members, Clem Zablaki and other members who've done so much to make this celebration possible. And I thank you for sharing this memorable moment with us here at the White House. And now to borrow a phrase. Oh, I couldn't resist this. I am going to put my John Hancock. It's a historic piece of legislation. Thank you. God bless you all. I'm a Reagan on that John Hancock. Thank you very much. Well, thank you very much. I'm very proud to have you here. Thank you, Mr. President. Thank you all.


Okay, then let's start with the last part of this symposium. And now we're actually moving to the second stage, like the first stage of this symposium was the academic part. And since this is also part of a larger research program which is funded by the German Research Foundation, Lars Köln and I and Matthias, who are organizing this event, we're always thinking we have to give something back to society. We actually funded this program. And so we would like to start off with a short introduction of what we have accomplished this year. And then you will probably all be looking forward to hearing this year's keynote speech by a different colleague. And so let me first of all welcome everyone who just attends now. It hasn't been part of the academic conference this year. And as you might know, crowd investing in Germany actually started in 2011. So we are now in the sixth year. We are just moving into the seventh year each. And every good marriage, as you might know, the seventh year everything falls apart. But as far as I can say, for the crowd investing market in Germany, this is so far not the case. So as you might have realized, we are having this crowd investing symposium now for the fourth time. And this year actually, for the first time, we opened it more up to financial decision making in the internet because we believe that fintech is really an emerging barrier and we shouldn't really focus only on crowd investing. And as you might have realized, a couple of papers that have already part of this topic like fintech but also social trading have been part of the conference. And I think we're going to continue with that and we'll have the symposium more open also in the future on that. So now we are getting this open session and before I start with the latest findings, let me briefly tell you what we're going to proceed. So in the first step, I'm going to briefly say something even shorter than the slide presentations on a couple of our recent papers. And then Ethan will have the keynote speech and we are very much looking forward to what he has to say. And then there will be a discussion with the practitioners from different fintech companies that have actually invited some of the ministry of finance. Okay, before I start with our latest findings, let me briefly thank a couple of people and institutions. First of all, I would like to thank all the participants of the economic workshop this morning and that you didn't make this symposium turn out like here in the comic and it probably didn't get out of hand. So that was good. And I would also like to thank the Max Planck Institute Foundation Competition for hosting this year's event. I would also like to thank them and the German Research Foundation for providing funding for the event. I think they're both very supportive. Third, I would like to thank all the people who have helped us to make this event successful and as you might have realized or not, the event for us is still like a little startup. So we are, yeah, you might not have realized that you are also improving and I think it turned out quite well. And particularly I would like to thank Matthias Schmidt who did really an excellent event or organized an excellent event and it was not like a crowdfunding journey and look at the funding success but also turn out in the end was really successful like a venture capital exit with a really good VC in the end. So thank you very much. And to give everyone an overview of how crowd investing has evolved and what we mean by crowd investing is the fact that everything that is in some form an investment in the future cash flows of a firm or of a project. But as an investor you should actually receive the future cash flows because what you might have realized is that in Germany we don't call it equity crowdfunding but crowd investing because we don't really use equity here and we'll show you in a second why and what you see here is the investment in startup companies. So it's moving up and if you go until here this might have looked very cool and if you're an economist and you have gone on you would have thought like this. So it didn't and actually you see it's quite flat and what actually why this is an intriguing finding is that here in 2015 we had the Small Investor Protection Act and so Forbes installers might say well this has hampered us a lot to get funding but you can see that this was not the case at least not for startups. However the market has developed and what you see is here that this is a different segment that has emerged recently which is investments in real estate projects and so there have been some really big quarters where there was a lot of real estate finance which quite similar or which replicates quite similar to the contracts you have seen in crowd investing for startups but also Forbes moved into different areas like one of them is the eco and social and movie projects but this didn't really take off in Germany at least and so if you look at the entire market so the market didn't really grow in 2013 and 2014 and 2015 there was a big peak and I don't think that in 2016 we will see growth rates again so it will be pretty much around about 30 million euros Okay, so here is the story So let's come to the first study and this is joint work with Tobias Schilling in the last learn and what you have looked at is the contracts in crowd investing and you have already noticed Tobias mentioned that already like in Germany we don't have any equity shares sold in a private limited liability company I mean there have been some securities in larger stock corporations but this is really rare so in the beginning what happened was like we only had sided partnership agreements and the reason for that is mostly that if you want to transfer a share of a private limited liability company in Germany you need a notary and you can imagine if you're selling a 5 euro share and you have to pay a notary for 250 euros so that's not really an efficient thing to do and most of the time you won't make a return of a couple of thousand percent to get in the fees you pay for the notary and what happened then was that signed partnerships kind of disappeared and in fact here you see we have profit participating loans loans starting off and the major reason for that was that you actually need a prospectus if you issue more than 100,000 euros with a signed partnership but with a profit participating loan for a long time you could actually issue unlimited amounts but at the time the Small Investor Protection Act kicked in in 2015 and then you could only raise up to 2.5 million however what you can see is that at this time there was only exclusively almost like profit participating loans or subordinated debt the level was mostly used by real estate projects ok so study 2 is a joint work with Matthias Neumann from the University of Tio and the major was we were interested in the pricing of shares and how they got evaluated you might know that in equity crowdfunding in Germany how it works is that the portals and the entrepreneurs get together they decide on the price of the startup the portal says not too high the firm says oh we are very valuable so we should have a very high price and then they come up with the price except for one portal namely Indovestment where the crowd could actually determine the price and with a lower bound and so you could learn something about the willingness to pay of the crowd for a share so what you see here is like two different periods from 2011 to 2012 from 2012 to 2014 and this is the number of investments an investor has taken and here is the premium they have paid and the first thing that is striking is apparently previously investors have been willing to pay more so the premium got lower all the time and the second thing is like there was apparently not much learning going on so it didn't matter how many investments you have made so the price you were willing to pay was pretty much the same we also checked rather characteristics and what we found was that you can pay characteristics like funding gold and so on had an important impact on your willingness to pay it on because it could be seen as a signal because it actually had an impact which was mixed if you invested in real estate before it had its experience there you weren't willing to pay a higher premium but if you invested in stocks before you were willing to pay more and you also looked at funding progress and hurting going to the positive effect and very interestingly we looked at the stock market for the utility in Germany what you could see is that if the stock market for the utility in Germany was higher then people were more willing to invest in equity crowdfunding which is interesting because it indicates that the two are not compliments they are apparently substitutes so if the utility is higher the stock market can move to a different market and the third study jointly with Matthias Schmidt we looked at the local bias of investors and what you see here is first of all where are the investors coming from and here is where is the money coming from if you see like most of the money comes from most of the people come from Berlin however like if you look at Munich it's not so many people but more money and it should got similar and so this is how this looks like interestingly we also looked at how individual investors decided and what you could see is that so individual investors mostly invested in local firms if you have an average distance so they decided to invest from which was more closer to them and also their portfolios were skewed in this direction we also found out that it's not all the investors who have this local bias, a certain type of investors have this local bias more often for instance company-friendly investors invested more locally investors who invested larger amounts also invested more locally which makes sense because if they invest a larger amount then they might also want to have more control of the start of their investment and if investors have more diversified they also have a lower local bias which is however kind of topological ok so in a third study with a full study it's dark coming and then in Schreitzer we were looking at fraud and crowdfunding and what we were interested in is we identified around 200 campaigns where there was obvious fraud on Kickstarter and Indiegogo and so sometimes the entrepreneur just took the money and moved somewhere else and he didn't produce the product he was supposed to produce and then we matched the sample with very similar campaigns and we wanted to see whether we could identify fraudsters from non-fraudsters so what we found is first of all if you're confronting a campaign which is already a repeated campaign and not the first time then it was less likely that you actually had a fraudster which is not surprising so if you are a serial entrepreneur and if you did a couple of campaigns you probably also said confident about yourself and you just ran a campaign so you didn't engage in fraud also interestingly what we observed is that if there is a fraudster people most likely have a lower social media presence which makes sense in economic terms so if you are all over the internet you don't want to be detected if you're a fraudster and you're trying to hide already also probably not surprising campaigns of the fraudsters who are poorly murdered and mostly confusing and if you think about it like if you don't know what you want to present and what you want to create you also don't know how to describe that and fraudsters trying to make up for that by generating more pledge categories and just generating more incitements to encourage the investors to get into this crowdfunding campaign so talking about crowdfunding I would like to introduce our keynote speaker Ethan Moly and probably all of you might know Ethan already however I would like to briefly introduce him so Ethan is the ever be and surely are and shows assistant professor at the Wolfson Business School and prior to that he received advanced technology and policy from Harvard University he also received a master's in science and management as well as a PhD in technology innovation and entrepreneurship in economics and sociology from the MIT Sloan School of Management his research interests include not surprisingly crowd investing and crowdfunding so he's also interested in use innovation and other topics he has received many awards from three of them so this year he became the Schultz Distinguished Professor of Nursing in 2014 he was among the most outstanding business school professors under 40 in the world also in 2014 he was the 30th most important influencer in crowdfunding and as he just told me in 1996 he got awarded the prize for the worst website on the web so one of the first memes too so he published several articles and various prestigious journals among others in organization science management science probably most of you know the lead article from the Journal of Business Mentoring and the dynamics of crowdfunding an exploratory study and Ethan is still exploring crowdfunding and today he will present his latest work on crowdfunding he will be more to your presentation Ethan and your series thank you


Can we sell the welfare as well as food quality and food safety? Isn't it a market for the fact that we do in South Auckland things in Asia? I'm sure we can sell welfare in Australia. Australian consumers are highly sensitised to the issue, and the South Store Free Initiative, I guess, was to say Australian pork is not only Australian, but it's different. And there's many other initiatives that we're trying to differentiate our product around from those that import competition. We've always had a mantra that selling welfare in China is just a waste of time. I believe that that's slowly changing, and I believe that the ultra-premium segment that we would be seeking to engage with in China would be a segment that would have an aspect of animal welfare as an attribute that could be quite positive. That's a hypothesis. I think there's still a lot of work to be done around that. And there are sort of table stakes to get into that market around food safety and quality and eating experience as well. I think animal welfare can be the icing on the cake for some of those consumer segments of very, very high value. Great question. I might direct that one to Tom too to see whether there's any differences in the beef industry from the point of view of animal welfare and where it fits in value-based pricing. I think from a beef perspective, sustainability concepts are becoming important, particularly for some of the we market a grass-fed brand around the world. Consumers have an expectation about that grass-fed brand and over time the sustainability claims that brand makes is going to become more important, but I wouldn't see a particular brand associated around welfare. Any great questions? This one is a whole panel of both, but before we give it a time, Troy and Andrew talked about how they've vertically degraded approaches to extractable food. The audience is never on use with the screen, very much a vice-praceman. Do you think there will be any further integration of formal land and contractual land? Absolutely. Traditionally the industry has been very much of the processing industry here, a spot market industry, but as I think we've built more collaborative relationships with our customers, what's beholden on us is to build those relationships with suppliers so we can meet that demand. So very much the concept around value-based marketing is to move away from that spot market transaction to a longer-term relationship. Thanks, a good question. We tested that recently thanks to someone in the Department of Finance who thought that in Indonesia it would bring in a new tax a couple of weeks ago, and so we put on 10% tax and we didn't have a buyer turn up. We're certainly very customer-focused in our feedlot operations, but really the buyers send a truck and turn up to the feedlot, and we saw that by putting the price up 10% but didn't turn up for a few days. So I think we're at a pretty tight spot at the moment in Indonesia, but prices, you go back a couple of years ago even and you think, wow, we're at this tight spot, but then we sort of things flatten out and we find another leg up and people work out how to be more efficient. They change the serving size. They look at different methods of cooking and we're continually seeing growth in the market and the growth is certainly with people that have got disposable income. It's not people that don't have disposable income. I think certainly through South East Asia beef is moving to be more of a luxury staple rather than just an everyday staple. Any other questions from the audience? I've got a question for Troy or Tom that I might do as the luxury of the chair. Troy, you spoke about using or marketing the whole animal and Tom spoke about cuts-based systems and marketing the advantage of cuts-based systems. They pull the Australian beef industry in two different directions very quickly. So how long before we start reporting on a manufacturing Australian beef industry and a premium Australian beef industry? And will that be the topic of the 2013 presentation that Trish gives to the Australian beef industry? That's a great question, Alex. I think though that even though we're talking quality and not quality and what's the difference quality between different customers even though if you look in Lampung which is the bottom end of Sumatra we've got 18 main customers and they buy the cattle on live weight those cattle get full retail beef yield assessment. It's all manual but every animal is bone, red meat. The cuts are pretty basic, split into loin and everything else and then awful and fat and the next day your negotiation reflects that yield back off that with our customers. So I think the bulk of our customers in Indonesia are already at yield and they are very sensitive to yield. So that's giving the right signals to us as a feedlotter. We're now putting that into our genetics program and it's a really difficult one to weigh out fertility growth and yield. But we're making decisions, are we giving that information to other producers that supply us? No, we're not. We haven't really worked out how to do that yet. But we are also a very, our biggest customer that's not ourselves is teas. So we're working closely with the teas guys and thinking significantly. We made genetic decisions last year based on what teas said that they would do in the next couple of years. Are you all happy with that answer? Yes, Dougal. The interest from our customers, and I think I said we don't mind where they are in the world, is about getting a more consistent product that more consistently meets the needs of their customer. And we explain value-based marketing to them is that's what we're trying to do. And only by getting the right price signal back to the producer will we achieve that. So I think the interest is consistent around the world. If McDonald's want a more consistent manufacturing meet product as much as, you know, a high-end restaurant in Sydney or Melbourne wants their product to perform. Very good. With no further questions, would you join me in thanking Andrew, Troy, Solomon and Chris?


The following is a presentation of TFNN Trade what you see With Larry Pezzavento Oh toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER> Now Larry Pezzavento Okay, looking good Billy Ray feeling good Lewis. Well, we have a full moon tomorrow. So let's keep a close eye on that What we're going to be looking at today to start off with is the German Dax as you can see it's been in a Pro-stended that pro-pro extended downtrend for quite some time bouncing around these little ABCDs but the one that looks the most interesting today folks is the you'll take a quick look at this this is the the UK market as you'll notice here. We rallied up to the 78 percent level just spot on up there at 72 80 We've now broken down about 70 points into major support here at 72 40 in the 72 14 in the FTSE so kind of keep an eye on that if you do it, you know, it follows a nice patterns the one that Alan didn't put in here that's really interesting if you look at the low from August the 12th and The one into the 13th yesterday, you can see that really nice three drive to a bottom there There's a small one in green He's got that one pointed out But that larger ABCD has a really nice one from the area of 72 60 down to 71 60 very similar to like what we're doing in The SNP so let's take a quick look at what's going on with that SNP because we We had some real interesting things that we were Sending out yesterday because of the fact of what that market was doing shut the front door and where did it go? I know it's here somewhere. So just bear with me here one second folks and we will get it Oh, we got a caller from The state of Washington Marshall. How are you this morning? Good morning. How are you this morning Larry? I'm okay. I'm okay. I'm by myself I I said my friend John Jamison over to California for the week to look at all the museums they get a museum and the Manly Hall Institute all that stuff so that I Could take a little break. What can I do for you my friend? Well, you've been talking about this research You've been doing with Jamison for quite a while here And I was kind of wondering if you kind of explain it a little bit what you've been doing and What's happening and is it going to go further and what's going on? I think we're we're getting close to where we're gonna We found out some of the things that we like my met John 15 years ago He became my student and I've been conversing with him for about an hour a day for the past year on a project that Not related too much to commodities as for a cryptocurrency is trying to learn some of it Which I have had a had a difficulty with but I invited John to come over and spend You know July August with me to take a little break from you know The Isle of Man and you know and have him here with me working with computers and stuff So that's been a lot of fun But when when after he got here, I realized he was an autistic savant And I don't know if you've ever been around anybody like that Marshall But it has it has opened my eyes to what the mind can actually do he reads He reads more books in a week than I probably do in two years and he remembers it all Has a photographic memory if he reads something he can repeat the page back to your word for word without even missing a comma I mean, it's yeah, and he's very good with computers, which is you know helpful to me I can copy and paste now. Can you believe that the next thing next thing? He was going to try to get me a Twitter account, but he realized that was too sophisticated for me But the main thing that we worked on is he works on data and we watch you know These things he works on a call Bayesian statistics, you know way above my pay grade but it's based on data dependency and what data does in the past and how it moves to the future and That kind of stuff and so we found a couple of things that are just absolutely incredible. We're testing them now and It's it's very very exciting. So that's mainly what it is But boy, it's intense my Marshall He starts at five in the morning goes to ten o'clock at night non-stop and when when it comes time for him to sleep He literally has to do exercises yoga exercise and some other stuff to calm his mind down So that he can so he can come down so we can get down to a level that he can sleep I mean, I've never seen anything like it It doesn't we've introduced him like you've been out here to see me lots of times So you know you meet some of our friends and stuff and they just they're amazed at the level of knowledge that he has I mean, it doesn't make any difference what subject could talk about he you know, he's he knows a lot about it He's really nice.  He's normal, but boy He's he's just like the rain man on the other side of the scale It's just yeah, it really is it's it's really it's been good for me because I I realized how Subnormal I really am but I keep I keep I keep it as I keep it as simple as possible And what I've been able to do for him because he likes to trade But you know, he for him to look at the screen is just about the most boring thing in the world But he does like the results and I've tried to get him to you know To calm his mind down and maybe just look at one or two little things and that's what we've been really trying to focus on So that's pretty much it Wow. Well, you you've really hit it out of the park. You found Shane and then and now yeah Yeah, that's right. Yeah Student. Yeah, well and you I found you too. What are you talking about? You know, give me a break I Know you are I I think about you all the time every time we drive by Guadalajara and please give Lynn my regards and we hope to see you know this spring You always come by in about six weeks, so We'll be here. We'll be here be no canyon and do that that night tour with full moon Yeah, you've been up to that have you been up to Mount P Mount Kim Mount peak Oh, it's at no kid peak to see the astronomy lob. That's really cool, isn't it? Yeah. Yeah, that's real great Really appreciate all the hospitality that you've shown us and the and Appreciate everything you've taught me to Larry. Okay. Well, thanks a lot Marshall. Listen, you have a good day my friend And we'll we'll talk to you pretty soon. Okay? Okay Okay. All right. See you later Okay All right, we'll move here on to the next thing that we want to keep an eye on here is We've had a inversion in the yield curve that caused the bonds to go absolutely Ballistic to the upside we took out the wax we took out 165 in the bonds notes have not made a new high But it's probably just a matter of time before they do that We've had a little rally back in gold from the bottom if gold gets if gold Let me see what's happening here. Hopefully we still have a Connection here double check broadsword to Danny boy broadsword to Danny boy. Have I lost internet? Have I lost internet? The chicken is in the pot. The eagle has landed. I think okay. I'm still live. All right. There we go We're back in business. I want to Bring to you your attention the chart of Bitcoin because it has been following pretty much exactly what's been going on with the Gold market and I've got a couple other stocks that we want to cover some folks that have asked for some questions But we did make that 61% retracement up there at 12,200 we're now trading at 10,500 so we have a nice correction here in the Bitcoin much like we did in the gold if gold gets above the 1130 excuse me 50 the 1538 level and we could easily see 1575 that's that could easily happen. So we'll we'll see when we live in interesting times I will cover the S&P first when we get back because that's the most Questions are asked for but I'll have that S&P chart for you when we get back<PHONE_NUMBER> If you're not currently using the Taz profile scanner when looking at setting up your trading opportunities Then your arsenal is short a mighty weapon the Taz profile scanner is a standalone piece of software that instantly filters over 2,500 global financial markets such as stocks ETFs commodity futures and forex headed by Steve doll Taz understands that in today's technological world the use of top-flight software applications and technical analysis Expertise is essential to successful trading in today's market You also gain access to the webinar that Steve doll and Tom O'Brien just hosted the best way to use the Taz profile scanner to profit This webinar archive is available for all subscribers immediately upon signing up all new subscriptions also come with a 30-day money-back guarantee So you have nothing to risk start your subscription by visiting the front page of tfnn.com today And you'll find the Taz profile scanner under the services tab sign up today Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area including the surrounding St. Petersburg Tampa and Clearwater Markets Tiger real estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay area Whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value or you're in the market for a second home or investment property Tiger Realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the Tampa Bay area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions Across all price levels from the price you should be paying per square foot in certain Up-and-coming areas to the type of cash flow investment properties are capable of creating Tiger real estate can help you make the best decision When it comes to all areas of the market before you make one of the biggest decisions of your financial future called Tiger real estate LLC today at<PHONE_NUMBER> or email us at tiger at tfnn.com That's<PHONE_NUMBER> call us today Many of our new listeners have heard about the Tigers Den the Tigers Den is a lively community where professional traders and investors can meet Exchange ideas and information in a comfortable moderated atmosphere hear all of the TFNN shows plus see all the charts as they happen live And have access to archives of all of those charts You can test drive the Tigers Den absolutely free for 30 days and greatly enrich your knowledge of these markets And how to make your money work for you details on the Tigers Den or on the front page of TFNN.com TFNN has launched our brand new website You can still visit us at the same TFNN.com URL But when you do you'll see a new and improved homepage with a much simpler navigation Whether you're watching tiger tv live in high definition or just accessing your newsletter subscriptions We even have new pricing in six months and yearly options Check out the new TFNN.com now and experience all the upgrades TFNN.com educating investors Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER> Okay, we're back folks and I posted the chart of the e-mini s and p with that hide that we made yesterday As you can see here, all we did was go out and take out the hide that we made three days ago four days ago But that one excuse me 2940 level we hit 2944 Of course, we're trading, you know 50 handles under that right now That was nothing more than going up into really strong resistance and you can see The importance of the Fibonacci numbers as you look at it. I mean it's right there Now we're now we're to point on the downside. We really need to hold should we get below 2865 That's going to be quite negative and whether that'll happen or not Remains to be seen but these markets react to twitter feeds or whatever happens and they move quite a bit And that's all you know, it's really all you can do it We could see that coming yesterday because it was coming off of major support And what we did is we were right up and stopped at major resistance The problem we're having folks is that the small caps are doing so very very poorly that it's really It's really important that we look at this next chart. I wanted to show you here. This comes from Raymond James research, but it really gives you a good idea of how poorly the stocks for the The small caps are doing and that's you know, a big part of our economy Of course is the smaller companies and you can see this down move that we've had here has been You know even more substantial in the small caps that it has been In the larger ones because the Dow has held up relatively well And we're still you know substantially below the lows we made on august the 8th, which was the you know The really big down day we rallied back up but going below that low of august the 8th would be Incredibly bad and today's a really important day mainly because we're one day off of the full moon in here And it's just going to be really important to see whether we can hold this 2860 level In the s&p that's going to be the key for me to watch that because breaking that means you're heading down And this lunar cycle that we're looking at either today or tomorrow may not You know be bringing in any support, but we'll do one thing at a time Now if we had a question for a couple of things that we needed to cover one was The thing about that I mentioned yesterday about dutch bank I wanted to bring this up because I had a question about it from someone last night If you'll notice here back in january dutch bank came out and offered their stock at a 35 discount folks Stop and think for just a minute.  You know, why can't they just go to the bank and get the money for that? I mean that that's this is just common sense but I just thought of something funny speaking of common sense. Why would anybody? Why would you give a hundred thousand dollars to somebody to hold your money and not get all of it back And that's what they're doing in the bottom in these foreign banks like or foreign countries like france switzerland france switzerland germany spain and One other one like uk i mean in japan You know and that's what they're doing, you know, but that's the way it is. We'll see anyway Now you see where we are as we're heading down. We're only if we take out six dollars the You know, it's going to go down to that 1.6 way down around four And there's no way that germany is going to let their flagship bank go under so You know, it's going to if it drops in half again from here We're going to be looking at something that's going to be relatively interesting to look at someone's asking a question here mentioning bitcoin Okay, here's a mr. Z is asking about bitcoin and okay here is here's some questions I think terry. I think what I think the central banks have made a bad mistake and they don't know how to correct it If you want to know the truth that that's hey, but I hey I'm so far behind the leal curve on that's the thing that I don't really know But here here's the one thing that if you want to write these down, you know There's thousands of bitcoins out there and china has most of them But the the main six that john follows. I'll give you these these are bitcoin litecoin ethereum Ripple cardano and stella and his favorite is cardano It sells for about a nickel a share and the reason why he likes cardano is the man who used to run ethereum Charles Hoskinson's this out of a company out of hong kong Is running cardano and it's got all of the things necessary To make blockchain that good. That's only a nickel a chair. So nobody sees it, but there's so many of them out there That's pretty much what it said. So those are the ones bitcoin litecoin ethereum ripple cardano and stella and believe me He really understands his stuff Yeah, he just really does anyway, that's that's all I know about it, you know, I really don't know I'm going to try to get him on next week When he's back to you know, talk to us, but he doesn't like to He doesn't like to you know To get into the public stuff very much. Anyway, let's take a look at a couple other things that some people have asked me about And the next one, of course Let's get it up here So we can see it and that is the the old granddaddy of them all which is general electric You can see here The main thing is is look at 99 you can see the three drive to a top pattern just Sweetest could be up there in the january of 2000 and the market went from 60 You know all the way down to five and it rallied up to 32 was now trading in around nine And this looks like you know, the stock is not going to go anywhere But this was the last of the original dow Jones industrial averages over a hundred years ago It was the last one that was replaced by wall green So that's pretty much it people don't realize but of the the 30 dow Jones industrial stocks 15 of them Went bankrupt during the time between 32 and 37 I think American telephone went bankrupt twice as I recall From the book only yesterday, which is I re as I recall that so we'll keep an eye on that Okay, the next one that Someone has asked us about is the old let's get this up here So we can see it to get into the marijuana stocks here a little bit Don't do stocks, but we do charts. So here's this tillray You'll notice that it made a top up there to 300 bucks One of these vertical move now. This is this is what you really call a What do they call that doggone thing a mania? That's definitely a mania up there But the key there is if after the market break breaks from 300 You know down to 100 it rallied up to the 382 level exactly At 170 and from there, it's you know got all the way down, you know to 30 The best way to look at it where we are right now is if you'll just blow it up On the daily and just be able to see it a little bit better You'll be able to get this up to see where this still looks bearish I mean it's not going to go anywhere But we're completing we just completed a little abcd correction here last night at 46 So that's this is pretty much the This whole thing about cannabis might be a real blow off Whereas the thing with the the bitcoin we really didn't do that Mr. Z is asking no, I've never traded anything I Mr. Z John I hardly ever trade stocks I mean I I really do I Mainly I do foreign exchange and futures and that's pretty much it And I don't really do any more than that that's and I only follow about 12 things You know, that's my biggest my biggest thing with John is to get him to focus on just you know Five or six things but you get him to focus on something the next thing you know He's he's looking at a monthly pattern that has nothing to do with trading, you know So you got to keep it really simple folks. It's it's not that hard Like you know, like mark Douglas says trading is simple, but it's you know, it's not easy in the easy part is You know being able to uh, you know understand, you know, what what you really need to do to try to make a buck Well, hey when we get back here, uh Yes, I do Terry and we'll we'll get back here. 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It's a mirror of all the psychological baloney that's going on in your life at that time I mean it really is and when you start counting money That's when it really gets difficult So I would really highly urge you, you know to try not to look at the monitor You know all day long first of all your eyes will go bad and the second of all it's not going to help you at all You can do short term trading if you like but only do it for periods of you know an hour hour and a half But the best thing to do is to you know plan your trades for the day And then put the order in and as soon as the order is filled put your stop in put your alerts in if it's made the first Profit objective and the rest of it not even worry about because the market doesn't care About you they really don't I know it's hard to believe but they really don't And remember that looking at that monitor doesn't do anything but confuse you because When you see prices go up it makes you feel good if you see prices go down Makes you feel bad. That's if you're long the opposite if you're short But it really doesn't make any difference. So try not to look at it The only way you can break yourself of this habit Is to do it in baby steps if you're watching the monitor all day try to break it from Say don't look at it for 10 minutes and then 20 minutes and then 30 minutes And you can every I check it every 30 minutes Those of you that have been out here to see me know that I don't like to look at these things I put the orders in and you know, that's really what I try to do. So Let's let's keep that in mind. Okay. Looking at this first one from bill. Do you notice that that's expecting the This is the a histogram that shows that the probability that The top will be be made sometime in September or in top at sometime in august The second one that bill showed us was this is the german bond And that's been that's been going crazy because it's at a negative yield down to Someone just posted it in the room at point minus point six two Never be looking here No bruce. I I try to keep my eye on the road. In fact, I'm driving like an old man these days Anyway, which I am so that makes it about right So that's also topping and then of course he has another one here Which is the japanese bond market and that's been negative for for quite some time And it also has a tendency to stop during that august period And we're in the middle of august as of today as we come into this full moon tomorrow And we'll watch it tomorrow is my grandson's birthday 19 years old. I can't believe it, but He was born on the full moon in august of 2000 and uh, his middle name is moon His name is chase moon Doyle his mother is quite involved with the The esoteric part of astrology not from my end, but she does like reading charts and things like that David white just posted something from paul tuter jones that we should probably read this every day These are the rules that he goes by is lose your opinion not your money Never average your loses folks. That's the worst thing you can do in anything is to average You're losing trades.   He said the first thing I do is look for the two exits that can get me out of it And that's what you should do with your positions Be concerned on how to take care of yourself and getting out of position The most important rule of trading is to play defense not offense And every day you assume your position is wrong. You want to protect yourself against losses And don't have an ego folks. I had a hard time with that earlier in my career And I fortunately I was very generous and I kept a lot of my friends But boy I was I was flat out obnoxious when I was making money at the very beginning because I never had any And to have it was a was a big change after I lost it I realized what the importance of it was but that's it Anyway, those are the main things that you want to pay a close attention to Now the next thing we want to look at here folks is the british pound We're down in this area here where it's really trying to hold Let's just get this up here so we can take a quick look at it We got down to this 120 20 level That was the low that we made and we've rallied about 100 pips off of that We really haven't gone anywhere But it is trying to make some type of a bottom the us dollar Index has you know made that big three drive to a top pattern that and we're now trading We've been down for a week and we're having pretty strong day today because the euro was a little weaker But we need to get that if the dollar is going to be really strong it needs to get above 99 We get the dollar above 99 folks. That's going to be a game changer I don't know if it has anything to do with the tariffs or any that other stuff But we do that that would be important and also on the downside If the dollar would get below 95 that would also Be some type of a game changer because that means that the euro would strengthen up And then we would be looking at a much much lower dollar, but that's down the road The questions that are people asking me about the gold market. I mentioned Yesterday that it was due for correction. We did we dropped I thought it was going to drop about 60 bucks. We dropped 56 dollars in a matter of a few hours Since that time we've rallied back to the 61 percent retracement up here at 15 25 the Heisman 15 29 And so the 786 on this comes in at 15 33 if we get it about 15 33 folks You're most probably going to go up and see an expansion there Up around the 15 85 1600 level and above 1600 It's going to take you above the 61 retracement of that whole move From from august of 2011 when we hit 1932 folks if we ever get above 1932 The profit the profit price profit Let's try to use words Larry the price objective on that abc d swing should be clear 1600 in the gold which we could easily do I'm You know, I'm hoping to see a hundred and twenty dollar correction here to get a good place to buy it but That that profit objective takes you to 2700 an ounce And that's uh, you know, that's not unreasonable because you know once we cleared You know the 860 level we went to 1911 Or 1932 Per ounce that was in august of 2011. So we could easily do that. That's a that's not undoable So we'll keep a close eye on that Someone's asking a question about negative interest rates Hey, if you believe in it do it. I mean, it's you know, I don't understand it I think it's the most I haven't yet to meet anybody that I talk about that says they would do that But that's what they're doing. So that's the main thing the cattle futures of mr. Z's talking about that They've had a big collapse in cattle and that's uh, the lack of demand is part of it But also, you know, the the other things that are that are going on with the tariffs are having some effect But these cattle have broken a great deal. They've pulled hogs down too. So We are, you know probing for a bottom down in here. We want to wait to get a little bit more information the Um No, the demand is there Natural gas and natural gas looking pretty good. Yeah, we'll cover natural gas when we get back Tucker. 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Don't let gold's next big run pass you by sign up today Will the s&p 500 continue to climb for bold trades on us large cap stocks in either direction trade spx l sp u u or sp x s directions daily s&p 500 bull and bear Leveraged etfs direction leveraged etfs an investor should carefully consider a fund's investment objective risks charges and expenses Before investing a fund's prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a fund's prospectus and summary prospectus call<PHONE_NUMBER> or visit directioninvestments.com a fund's prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor four side fund services llc The bull bear binary option hour next on tfnn Okay, we're back folks and I someone said we have a caller this morning Can I help you? I guess we don't have a caller Well, I thought rich anison was going to join us today, but maybe i'm wrong. We'll have to wait and see Hey rich, how you doing this morning? Good. Good. I was trying to use another speaker. Don't worry. Okay Hey rich, is the end of the world been reached in the corn market yet? I think I think we're at a pause point You know they they caught everybody leaning in the wrong way and they're punishing them I figured the punishment will be over no later than tomorrow morning basis, you know various things And uh, so i'm just you know looking for some kind of market action, but the gap that we left is very disconcerting We need to overcome that gap in the next couple weeks Um, I The amount of prevent plan acres of both corn and the beans I think they're playing with the numbers But you know you got to play the cards that are dealt on the on the table and For the moment those are the cards cards dealt in the table and in the market will tell us When those cards are going to be changed and that's that's what i'm looking for you know, I Was looking for a various report to give me an opportunity And I think this is opportunity um But you've you've got to trade technically and you got to manage your risk They you know the the key to being a successful in trading long term because any fool can make money on one trade Is to learn how to be a professional At when you're wrong in losing small amounts Rich someone's asked a question today do this on purpose You know give us bad information when it was in june when they said there's going to be no more corn in the whole world And now we're a dollar a dollar a bushel lower and they'll tell us we have more corn that we'll ever use I mean is this he's asked that he's asking the question. Is this done on purpose? What you know, you know in conspiracy theory if it's almost seemed like it's it's uh I you know in june The commercials You know weren't covered and and you've seen that in the basis, you know the basis went from 40 and 50 under Um to even money You know, so as the market went down the cash price went up and so It didn't change all that much to the the farmer up until this report because the cash price kept increasing As you know the cash versus the futures the cash used to be 60 under and all of a sudden the money You know The commercial needed to get covered and you can tell that's what was happening You know, they they can destroy the commercials That that's you know That's that's my view of it And then in the cattle market you had an unexpected fire of a titan plant last weekend And so now you're gonna have the packers in control of the market and they're gonna make you know, maybe $300 ahead And the feedlots are going to be looking for work and I sell my cattle and the you know the best places on the board And so that that kind of became a trend, you know that train wrecked from a fire So, you know things sometimes happen Well, that's why I was warning about the cattle market because of the fact that you know, we had this You know really big collapse in cattle.  Let's say you need to kill 100 head and you took You know capacity for 15 had away those 15 had got to go someplace else. There's no place to go That's that's um, I I didn't interrupt you your question No, no, no the other question that's did they ask me every every session here is about negative interest rates I I I don't understand it. No one's been able to explain it to me It's never happened before in 7 000 years of history of economics, but uh, can you give an explanation of negative interest interest rates, uh rich Well, it it's part of it, you know, like in germany, it's six tenths underneath Um, you know, you pay a thousand and sixty dollars and you get back a thousand You know part of it is the some a certain amount of money has to be put in the government bond And the banks have to take what they're told and do what they're told It's it makes it makes no sense to me. It eventually it'll be a train wreck But in the meantime, you know negative interest rates, as I said last time I was on the show Golden silver and silver's undervalued versus gold in the relationship. So You know go with the ponies that are running Yeah, that that's a good one. So they're in the stable Hey, I like that one. Yeah, I got a better one. Fall the oats is a lot more expensive than the oats has been to a horse, you know No Hey, listen, thanks for calling in rich. I really appreciate it Oh one other question we have asking at the beans have actually held up incredibly well during the fall in wheat and corn Um, the beans still looking good to you longer term I I think uh I think that Maybe going to be a story that nobody's thinking about right now I you know, I can I can make a case for bean oil Because if we don't need the meal, you know, they're still going to need the bean oil and You know the last time I was out in the country, which is a week and a half ago I could still roll fields and your your yield is dependent on the canapina that The leaves cover over the dirt and that preserves the moisture and that's when you get the best yield Uh on the other hand, it's continuing to rain and rain in august produces more plots So I don't You know, I I think there's a story there and and the harvest lows, you know, I think we're gonna have a giddy up You know the the two leaders g and trump They both have their individual problems and they need to uh sit down and get it squared away It's not helping anybody over here over there I agree with that 100 rich. Thanks for joining in buddy. I really appreciate it Alrighty, take care. Okay, you bet rich anderson folks of anderson capital management. Let's take a quick look here at the natural gas We're waiting for a really important bottom here One of the things that i've been working on with john jamison our patterns that uh show Tops and bottoms and we've got some, you know, real real incredible research on how these things are actually done Not just looking at the fibonacci ratios But in the sequence of actually how it happens and we have that situation going on here in natural gas You'll notice today we completed an abcd pattern over the past week from august the 5th Into the 14th. So that's a 12 day cycle topped right almost exactly to the 61 percent retracement Missed it by a half a point and now we're in a corrective mode So this corrective mode is going to be really indicative of what we're going to be expecting and The key here will be the 207 level the 207 level if we break that then we're going to be looking at something You know considerably lower as you can see from that black line That's showing from the uh, june 20th down to the june 29th Excuse me july 29th. That's basically a price line showing us that we'd be looking at 1.97 in the Natural gas it should we get there so the sequence that we're looking at right now Is very very important especially with the top being made today A pullback and if we exceed that top and get above 222 That changes the whole the whole structure of what we're watching here So let's kind of keep an eye on that the stocks are weakening up again We've given up everything that we made yesterday and this is not acting very good folks. It's just uh, it's one of those things that Makes you wonder why it jumped as much as it did yesterday but went right up into resistance and You know stopped exactly where it should have so we'll see eight seven seven nine two seven six six four eight I'm certain you are or strive to be one of the best of the best at everything you do in life It's the most common trait that we tigers and tigers share If you're looking to become the best of the best when it comes to managing your money Let me teach you to do what most wealth managers tell you can't be done, which is how to time the markets I'm steve rhodes author of mastering probability and for the last 12 months timer digest has been tracking my newsletter signals Which have earned me the ranking as their number one market timer in the nation for the s and p 500 for the last 12 Six and three months timer digest also ranked me as the number one market timer for gold as well The fact is markets can be timed and I'll teach you the exact set of tools that I use that has transformed me into one of the Best in what I do sign up for mastering probability today by clicking on the newsletter tab on the homepage of tfnn.com And get immediate access to workshops where I take you step by step How to use an extraordinary set of tools as well as provide great market calls to sign up today If you haven't checked out the newsletters page of tfnn.com What are you waiting for? 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I've been asked to take a look at the pound versus the swiss franc cross rate You know, we got 29 countries in the euro zone and they cross those different currencies But you know, I stick basically to the big six with the dollar I don't do these crosses very often. I'll do the pound yen euro yen, of course and the euro pound But this was a little unusual one But what he's showing here is a potential bottom a potential triple bottom down in this area 1.16 and that that means that you're long the pound short to swiss So if you're looking to buy the pound you're looking at that Level of 1.20 holding and if it doesn't hold The next level on the on the british pound that we've talked about several times here And let's just post it again just so we don't forget Because it's going to be real interesting if we do get down to the area That's the area of 1.08 30 And we could certainly do that without too much trouble because the amount of bounce that we've got here In the pound is like a balloon without helium. I mean, it just doesn't want to go up very much So I'm looking for 1.18 30 that takes out the brakes at low We went from 150 You know down to 119 and change and then we rallied all the way up to 143 If we take that old low out there at 119 I think we can get down to that 108 level 118 level very easily remember the pound at one time Back in 1985 got down to I believe I think it was 85 as I recall was it 85? I might have been 103. That's one of those two numbers I think it was 103 and but we'll see what happens It's going to be interesting to think The european leverage in bregge. It has diminished. I don't know that terry. That's I just look at the charts You know sometimes they help you sometimes they don't to help you more than they hurt you That's for sure because you're not going to be fooled with bullish fundamentals like we've seen in hogs and corn and some of these other things So that's really the bottom line of what we're watching here. We're at a critical level here At this 28 60 in the s and p we break below that folks It's not going to be very nice and we could have one of those days where the Dow's going to go quite a bit. We will see a day where the dow's down more than 1100 points for sure We had a big drop was 900 you multiply that times 1.6 That means the next drop will be around 1500 points in the dow in one day someday But when who knows<PHONE_NUMBER> see on the flip side