And then you do the exact same thing for the other walk. There will be no overlap on the trees. The only overlap that can be is going to be on the cycles because remember, you already use each edge in a tree twice, you have no leftover, you can't have overlap. If you overlap on that, you're gonna have to use it four times. So, that means that once you've decided on a partition of the number k minus r over two for the first, for w i and on one for w j, then you have to choose the trees from amongst all of those trees with prescribed size. They have to be rooted because you care where you place them or how you place them on the cycle. So they have to be rooted. And of course, what's the number of unlabeled rooted trees of size k sub i, c k sub i. So once you've decided on partitions, the total possible combination is given by this product of c k i, c k i. So this is a square actually, okay? Moreover, you will be able to pick the labels on these graphs in n to the k ways because k is v. And given a cycle and dangling trees graph, properly partitioned, there are a total number k squared of ways of choosing starting vertices. So remember that we're looking at w i and w j. W i encoded in it is the starting vertex where you start doing your walk. That will have to be one of the k vertices available. And it's the same thing for w j. Again, you'll have to pick one of the k vertices available to do the walk. So that gives you a total of k squared ways of choosing starting vertices. You'll have two choices on how you walk on these things. You could start walking this way or you could start walking this way and they will give you different terms, different combinations, different pairs w i, w j. But you have to also take into account a rotational invariance of the cycle. So you'll get the same picture just by rotating the cycle, okay? So there's an over count. So these two are multiplicative and this one is division. So it's a dividing factor. So overall, the conclusion is that summing over all possible cycle lengths, you're gonna have this two k squared over r and then the sum of all possible partitions of k minus r over two of the product of c k sub one, c k sub two, c k sub r, and you square that because you have to have one partition for w i, one partition for w j. And since they're independently chosen, that means that things multiply. And this is the number of pairs and the number of ways of labeling the vertices in the graph that will give you non-trivial terms, non-negligible terms, okay? All right, so now, okay, so that's the count for when the graph has a cycle. The reason why the n to the k disappears is because we're dividing by n to the k in the, by taking the product of w bar. So remember w bar was the scaled matrix, yes. How can r be odd? Why wouldn't it be odd? Oh, good point, okay. So I just wrote it like that. If it's not possible, then that term disappears. Yeah, so c of an odd number is not defined, so that's gonna be a zero term, okay? Pardon me? Right, so if k minus r over two is not an integer, then you cannot partition it into an integer. So that's gonna be, yes, but it's a good point. So yes, you actually want r's that are even. Maybe I should have started the sum from four on, but there's a certain parallel that you'll see with the odd case, so I would rather keep it like that. Just consider that. When you can't do something, then that's a zero term. Oh, sorry, I actually wanted to make one more point here. Since each edge is worked on twice, when you take the expectation, that variable is going to be squared. So you look at the expected value of a square of one of your variables, so that's always one because that's how the Wigner ensemble is defined. So that means that everything here has weight one. Okay, so that's the count for having, for terms that come from cyclical graphs. But what if the graph is a tree? So that's the recall that that was the other possibility. You have either a graph that has a cycle and in which case you have every edge appearing exactly twice, or you have a graph that's a tree, in which case almost everything is going to appear twice with the exception of one edge, which will appear four times. Okay, so if it's a tree, that means that both the graphs for WI and WJ are trees and what you've done is just overlap them on one edge. That's all. Okay, if they are trees, that means that you have, oops, sorry, wrong button. There are CK over two possible trees that you can choose among and then you have to pick one of the edges to overlap on. There are two ways to do that. There are K over two total edges in each tree and you decide which edge to overlap. So that gives you K over two squared. But you have two choices of orientation on how you do your walk. So that gives you another factor. So there are two choices of orientation in that the edge that you decide to overlap could appear first in one direction for the one and the other direction for the second or in the same direction for both of them. So that's a much easier count. And each choice is going to come with this weight. And notice that this is the first time that we've seen a power of the variable that's other than two appearing. Well, and once the powers were two, then that was one. But in this case we have the fourth power and the fourth power appears from the fact that that edge is actually used four times so you need to have that. Every other edge we'll have in expectation weight two but this guy will have weight to the fourth, weight w i to the fourth. Then we subtract one because it's the covariance on the other side is just gonna be power two squared. So it's gonna be one squared so that gives you the one. So overall this is the total weight for that case. So to assemble things for the case when K is even, this is the variance right here. So this comes from terms that correspond to a single tree with one edge walked on four times and everything else walked on twice. And these come from terms that correspond to one cycle with dangling trees in w i, the same cycle with some other dangling trees in w j and overlap on the cycle. This is the variance for K even. Actually let me see how much time I have. Okay. So let's do the same calculation for K odd.  I am guessing that you understand what's going on. These are again all the possible at first glance, all the possibilities. And now just as we did before, let's figure out which one of them are actually not possibilities. So first of all, the last one again here is not going to be a possibility. In fact, this actually never happens because you have to have, if the graph is a tree, that means that w i and w j are both trees. And now you have that you're doing a closed walk on a tree which will have an edge of, that's only walked on once or three times. And it's the same impossibility as before. It doesn't matter how many edges you have total or what the parity is. You just cannot do a closed walk on a tree that visits all the vertices and has one edge walked on only once or three times. So that's not actually a possibility. And also, this is also not going to be a possibility because remember, this comes from the case when both w i and w j represent closed walks on trees where each edge is walked on exactly two times, but that means that the powers themselves have to be even. So that's also not a possibility. So the only possibilities that we can, that we have to examine are the case of a cycle or a loop. The case of a cycle is identical to before. It's the exact same count. It's the exact same discussion. And of course, now you're going to have that instead of summing over even lengths of cycles, now you're gonna sum only over odd lengths of cycles. But again, it's okay to express it this way because if you can't do a partition of K minus R over two, then this term just doesn't appear. So that term we know and we're familiar with. And now let's look at the last remaining case which we previously dismissed as being impossible. And that was the case of a loop. So you have now it's K odd and what kind of graphs can we have? Well, it's actually easy. We're gonna have a tree that gets walked on in a closed manner here and a loop that appears once. And the same thing here, not the tree that gets walked on in closed manner here with the same loop that is only taken once. And this time the parity is okay because you walk on a tree, it's a closed walk on a tree where each edge is walked on at most exactly twice and then plus a loop that gives you an odd number. So this is indeed a possibility now. So what are our choices? Our choices can be described as follows. First we pick the tree. The tree will have to have K minus one over two vertices. It's going to be a rooted unlabeled tree. The labels come afterwards, but it's important that it's rooted. And then we pick the loop to be on one. So we choose the loop to occur after one of the edges is walked on. So we don't just dangle it off of a vertex, but it's important when the loop occurs in the walk. So between each, what two edges does the loop occur? And that gives you exactly K possibilities. And since the choices are independent, you get a total of K squared, CK minus one over two, so the Ketlin number corresponding to K minus one over two squared, so one for WI, another one for WJ. We have these two trees with the loop decided in the walk, and then you just identify the loops, okay? And the total number of choices at that point is for the labels of the vertices, N to the K, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. There's one important factor here. Did I write that somewhere? Yes, okay. It's the weight of the loop. So it's the first time so far that we have cared what the variance of the diagonal entries is. Diagonal entries do not appear at all in our calculations for calculating the ESD because remember, I mean, if you take a diagonal entry, then that means that you give up a choice. So you're not at optimal choices, optimal number of choices for vertices, but here it's important. So the weight of the loop is important. It's gonna be the expected value of W11 square, and that's going to be the weight that those terms are going to appear with in the total count. And the rest is just as before. It comes from the choices that we have to do for the cycles. So this is the variance for the case when K is odd. Fairly similar to for the case when K is even. Okay, higher moments. Remember, computing the variance is not enough. In fact, computing the variance is just the beginning. What we want to show is that higher moments behave exactly as you would expect a Gaussian variable, the moments of a Gaussian variable with this particular variance to behave. So for the higher moments, you have to examine these quantities, but the same ideas apply. You just have to look at joins of graphs and the like. Two things that I'd like to say. One of them is that you will examine a join of L graphs for power L. And you'll have the words W1, W2, WL. The graph corresponding to WI, so the graph corresponding to G sub I sub J, let's say, will have to overlap some other graph. So any pair of graphs will have to overlap. Otherwise, if it's, sorry, not any pair. I said that wrong. Any graph will have to overlap some other graph. Otherwise, if that's not true, then it follows that you have one of these words that's independent of the others, and therefore the covariance is going to be zero. So you will look only at graphs that overlap in some manner all together. But unlike before, when that meant that the join of the graphs is connected, that's not going to be the case here. It won't necessarily mean that the join of the graphs is connected. In fact, because the requirement will always be subject to this overlap, to maximize the number of vertices, that will occur when you'll be able to pair the words in such a way such that one word only overlaps with some other word. So only the pairs of words overlap and the rest of them are independent. So in other words, you'll have to construct a matching. And from the matching, you'll get the weak formula which will tell you everything you need to know for the higher moments, how to compute the higher moments. Anyway, that's one thing to say. And the other one is that you noticed that in the variances, we have an expression of the fourth moment of the off diagonal entries. So unlike, so to begin with, I assumed here just to make things easier that all the variables had moments of all kinds. But because only the fourth moment is appearing and because you might want to extrapolate from work that we've done before, you might be able to see that, okay, so maybe I need to have fourth moment for the off diagonal entries, but that's maybe all I need to have. That's almost true. So you can extend this result by constructing the same kind of truncated variables as we did before, but you'll have to assume four plus epsilon moments. So you'll have to assume that x to the four plus epsilon is integrable with respect to the distribution of the off diagonal entry. So it's not exactly just fourth moment, but almost, almost that. And you can extend it not just, so we did it for polynomials, but some sort of, so you can extend it to functions over some sort of space. Okay, so it's a pretty strong result. And I think that's all that I wanted to say today. So you have this central limit like theorem, which nicely involves only four plus epsilon moments and can be extended to functions with a certain degree of smoothness. And when it comes up tomorrow, we will see how in a sense this is a one-dimensional version of a result that we'll talk about tomorrow, which relates to the Gaussian free field and which is kind of like a two-dimensional statement. One way to think about this central limit theorem is the following way. You can say that the fluctuations give you a Gaussian process. So it's a one-dimensional Gaussian process over functions with a certain degree of smoothness. And I think I'll just finish here. Thank you. Questions? Yes, could you say that again, I'm sorry? Why you divide by r? Okay, I can actually maybe draw a picture. Yes, I don't have to, yeah, they can start at various, yeah, at different places. So here, I'll give you an example with where I have a single tree dangling of size one, right? So you have your cycle here and I have one vertex, one tree of size, well, I guess of length one dangling from it. Well, I mean, I can label things like this, one, two, three, four, okay? And that would give me one thing. But if I looked instead of this picture and labeled things one, two, three, four, I have the same thing, okay? So this is, I have to divide by the number of rotations. So before I put the labels, this is different from that. But the way I put the labels in matter, over counting that you can do, yeah. This is the only type of over counting. No, they're not silly. Yeah, so r equals one, I guess you could think of that as being the loop and r equals two is just the additional overlapped edge. But the problem with thinking of that is that you don't see the four power, yeah. So very good, very, very good. Any other question? Sorry. Maybe, can you use your microphone? Maybe people, here. Okay, so you know, if you consider a random topics matrix, with IID entries on the diagonals, and then you divide by root n to get this limiting spectral distribution, in that case, this is no longer true. So if you take linear statistics, they have square root n fluctuations. So it's not because you're dividing by root n, that's something more subtle that's going on. Sorry. Thank you, Shoraf, yeah. So like I said, the reason why you don't get this square root n is because the values are so correlated and fluctuate very little. Any other questions? You'll have some problems to work on. Actually, what you'll be doing will be computing the covariance of this Gaussian process in a problem session. All right, thank you.


The following is a presentation of TFNN Trade what you see With Larry Pezzavento Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER> Now Larry Pezzavento Okay looking good Billy Ray feeling good Louis the first chart we're going to start with today is from David White He and Tom O'Brien have a really good service showing the different patterns and it's the ETF for wheat as you can see here It's forming a beautiful butterfly pattern Now what I'd like to do is to bring this up here and show you something just a little bit different here And that is this is a long-term chart here. This comes from Sherman McKellen son Hold on one second. This is from Tom McKellen. Get this up here. It's through Jim Bianco's research But basically what it's showing you here is let's just get this up here to take a look at it and that is the wheat chart You'll notice here that the it's in a really strong move here But what they're doing here is they're showing the relationship of gold and wheat now I You know in fact wheat is golden so maybe that does mean something but the thing is we're looking at here As you'll see that the 2008 commodity bubble index was way up here and then we've had lower tops in here And you can see we've had lower tops and wheat we've had a little bit higher tops in the gold market So that makes a correlation between wheat and gold that I've never seen before But I thought it was worth bringing to your attention because I wanted to share with you a chart that we've been watching For quite some time now and that's this this chart here. Hold up and get this up here. We can see it today You'll see this is the chart of wheat and we were looking for this high to come up in here and around this Actually the high got to 807 last night and we're now we're now 16 cents lower than that It sold off quite a bit. So if you were selling that you would certainly have your stop at break even now Because these markets are very very volatile. The only trade that we were in was the trade that we talked about Which was the soybean oil. This is cooking oil as you know it went up to the 61% retracement up there at 6230 We came down you'll see our first target was at 6140 the low last night was 6141 And then we've rallied back a little bit but that that completed the and remember now we have higher bottoms in here That was the reason for the potential profit there because it came down so sharply that you when you when you Make $600 that quickly and when you're only risking $200 that's what you really try to do This is what we're going to be doing when we do the day trading on November the 10th with with Tom who guard Tom Hopefully we with us for a little bit over an hour during the day coming in and out but that we've got a lot of things to cover A great great trading markets now folks.  I didn't put his name in here but George if you're listening I know you're going to be watching this From Hong Kong but he was kind enough to send this here. He says he entered the Tesla position at 900 once it exceeded 1.618 What level should it go to and he said he wanted to know where to lock in his profits this morning Well, when you ever you ask the question where do I get out? That's your answer you if you don't know get out And all I said was look the 1.618 expansion was at 1148 and he got out at 1190 is where he got out at so he made I think 3032% on that but when you have to ask that question where do I get out that means you don't know where you are And if you look at that painting right behind me there I think the very first one is when in doubt I think it is the first one Let me double check pretty sure. No never add to a losing position when in doubt is a little bit farther That's this number two never add to a losing position is number one because that's the dumbest thing you can do because you're not only You're increasing your exposure with risk margin. You're the wrong side of the market because your analysis is wrong So you don't want to do that but when in doubt stay out. That's from Mr. W. D. Gatt himself So anyway, thank you for the thing on but the thing that I wanted to mention is folks know when nowhere in the world Did I give a buy signal on Tesla? I mean I watched it go up and I said once it goes above those areas It's going to very very bullish. I was saying that but I never I never for a I never trade stocks and B I don't buy breakouts, you know, and but that was one of the ones that you know once it went about you're trading in Their direction of a very strong trend. So that's that's what we're watching. So let's keep that in mind when in doubt Yeah, just keep buying because they're going to go up forever. That's for sure. They will never go down anymore Now I wanted to we've got Jeff huge as our guest today from alpha insights and so that'll be fun I also wanted to bring to your attention here. If you remember last week we had a young man calling in I don't remember the his name or the city that he called in from but he was looking at this Zs whatever that thing is I can never remember but I saved it because we've been up to the 1.618 now for five days Folks we hit it again today that we made a new high today at 3121 I believe but it was trading right at 320 50 a little while ago so it's been up here for quite a while and it also could be breaking out listen if they can take Avis I just saw Basil post a chart on Avis There's what you have to worry about folks if these reddit folks and these Robin Hood people start jumping on these things You better stand out you better stand and stand out of the way because these things can go crazy I mean Avis I mean They must have found a cure for cancer possibly who knows any and then we'll be looking out here Okay, let's move on if you have any questions<PHONE_NUMBER> I'll be happy to happy to answer for you if I possibly can now I wanted to spend just a tiny bit more time yesterday I had several people complain to the fact that they don't believe that bitcoins and all this other stuff is real and I I know you have an opinion on that and I respect your opinion however wrong it may be but this was given to me by John Jameson back in 2017 when he said that the Internet was there was like it was in 1990 and the main thing here if you look at that and read it carefully in the third paragraph it says if you understand that you're already ahead of the game because what this business is about it's a reconstruction of a metaverse and you know that what what's just happened to Facebook it's a construction of a new virtual real estate Internet type thing and that's going to be going on and that's the way it's going to be now I'm going to show you what I'm watching now because I'm going to start following some cryptocurrencies because I've watched what's John's done and believe me you can't do what he has done by accident and the good part of it is this is what you're going to be looking at when you're watching some of these Internet stocks and this happens to be one that we have on our watch list and this you can see it I'm not showing you the prices I'm not showing you what it is I just want you to see that the same patterns that we look at on anything else are in all of these stocks and there are thousands of them folks you know they have what three or four hundred exchanges and you know thousands of these that are trying to latch on you know to the secret code to you know what's going on so we're watching these things very very carefully the two reasons one it doesn't cost very much to get in this one happens to be under a dollar and but you can see it has fifty percent moves you know all the time so all we're watching for the different patterns to unfold and you can buy them but I think as later on we're going to have even better ways to enter the market but we'll take a break right now eight seven seven nine two seven six six four eight you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future right like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts you might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices selective stocks and commodities subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com the opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman wave the Chapman wave up down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman in your inbox every day first time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up tfnn.com educating investors what's separating you from the most successful men and women on Wall Street? that's right, information having all the information gives us the perspective we need to place the right trades at the right time the TAS Profile Scanner is the premier market profile based scanner powered by its acclaimed TAS proprietary algorithms this feature rich scanner instantly filters over 2,500 plus global financial markets such as stocks, ETFs, commodities, futures and forex this powerful suite of tools leverages instant trade filtering and strategy formulation to show you emerging trades before they happen for a limited time you can save $100 off your first month by using the promo code upgrade and you still get a 30-day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk level the playing field with the TAS Profile Scanner which you can find under the services tab at tfnn.com sign up today sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument you have to practice sure but you also need excellent instruction from experts at tfnn you'll get advice and guidance from the authority in technical market analysis and it's not just dry tedious text either TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV live every market day from 8 30 a.m. to 4 p.m. Eastern for free each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world from the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money watch online at tfnn.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be TFNN Educating Investors toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER> okay folks I have posted the chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average the one we've been watching for the past several weeks we have hit that number of there as you know we did hit 35,985 I believe the ABCD pattern measured to 35,967 but remember you know if you can see something like what happened in Avis today you know that's not a small stock if you can see something like that where it's up 300% I mean you got to stand aside of some of these things when they start to you know really go and the NASDAQ was one that really went a lot higher now the other one on the the S&P I posted them there because I wanted to talk about them today you can see here what happened I put them side by side this is long before this happened because I wanted to be clear on what was going on here but if you'll take a look at this these are the hourly charts of the e-mini you can see that price objective we were looking at at 46.20 that we hit 46.21 and changed today the NASDAQ went bonkers it made that last little ABCD up there at 159.80 so it jumped 100 points higher well part of that can be you know four or five stocks in that NASDAQ that go nuts and that you can't stand in front of that but that's what we're that's what we're really paying attention to now someone's asked a question about the painting behind my office here on the wall here that was painted by a wife of one of my customers from Drexel Burnham Goldbuyer customer for many years ago and she was a very famous painter she actually painted fruits and vegetables in oils on canvas and this is oil on canvas and they painted this picture for me to I think I have it in my you know I think I have it right here I can just what I'm going to do here I'm going to I know I have it but I don't you know since I'm talking about this let's just do it right now so if you have any question I want to get if you want that picture that painting and you can't see it if you'll email me Larry Pesavento at gmail.com I can post it in there for you and it shouldn't be any problem to to get to it so just give me one second here to pull it up and we'll all be able to see it easy enough God willing and usually she is hold on just a second what happened to my oh I know what I did wrong here just a second here there we go alright let me I got to get to the portrait P-O-R-P-O-R portrait T-R-A ah well that's what you happen when you have an Italian working on a working on a computer I'm not going to worry about it I'll get it done later folks and send it out I know how to find it I'm just not finding it right now and I don't want to waste any time question here would you be exiting all of gold shorts ahead of Wednesdays yeah I don't like to be I don't like to be into a in a position when the feds out there because it's so crazy and you know Mr. Z is asking that question and the reason why is folks liquidity dries up I mean you know people like myself and Mr. Z when you when you're in there talking and they say something I mean you have unlimited exposure those of you that were trading back in 1995 do you remember our good friend Allen Reins Greenspan at 10 30 in the morning came out and dropped interest rates a half a percent and the S&P gapped 50 basis 50 points folks 50 handles and I and I I'm not even sure I believe we try I don't even know if we were trading many all I know it was it was 50 handles I happen to be on the right side of that but when I saw the price I didn't even believe it there were more bankruptcies at the Chicago Mercantile that day than there were after October 19th I mean that's how bad that was how badly that hurt now if you had that inside information whether you were a treasurer of city bank or the CEO of city bank like Robert Rubin was and you could use that to your advantage do you think you would use that advantage well I don't think so you're too honest and too honest and good let's talk just a second about the the climate change thing I think one of the greatest predictions I've ever heard was from the number two polluter of hydrocarbons in the world China prime minister not China India Prime Minister Modi came out and said we will be carbon free by 2070 that's only 50 years from now and the New York Mets and we'll have won the penance and the World Series six times in a row by then are you kidding me I mean people believe this kind of stuff I just don't understand it you know it's just really really amazing but you've got the two major polluters Russia and China are not even at the meeting how can you how can you do a deal like that when you know a third of the world is not involved in it okay emerging markets MME futures I don't do that Ruby I could do I could do the ETF if you'd like how about that let me let me do the ETF I do do that and let's just get let's just get this on and then we will we'll be able to do it easily enough hold on a second here hold on just a minute boys and girls and we'll get to see it's EEM as I recall I used to look at it but anymore I don't there it is EEM by golly we got it Mr. Z's coffee's been smoking too it's been really doing well okay here is that boy this certainly doesn't look as bullish as any of the other stuff we've seen I haven't looked at it in a very long time but we are in a well last time I looked at it let's just get this up here to see it there's the old ABCD pattern again folks if you haven't seen it there it is on the EEM what we've done is we've look at these lower highs we had the big ABCD down here went perfectly to it we've rallied up and this is three lower highs this is not a bullish chart this is a major downtrend folks the last rally high was exactly 78% level we're at some relatively good support here but that's all we have is that support so let's let's keep that in mind because it's going to be interesting to see how that unfolds okay hope that helps Ruby but I don't do the futures I didn't even know they had futures for that but there's a lot of others that I don't know that we have either we've got Mike from Niagara Falls on Tesla Mike what can we help you with yeah hi there's some controversy regarding that Hertz deal that caused a big spike in Tesla late last week and I just wanted to take a look at the chart and tell me whether or not you've got a Gartley cell signal there or 135 no no no Gartley Gartley has exceeded the 1.6 we talked about this several times but the 1.618 on the Gartley on the Tesla came in at 1148 and we're trading now at 1181 let's just let's hold on with me one second here Mike I meant to bring this up for you but you can see as I bring this up here there is no reason that I can see to be short this stock and hold on a second here it's going to have some wild swings in here but remember oh dear I did this wrong shucks I think I just made a picture of the I just made a picture of the of the Dan I'm sorry anyway you can see that up is I'm thinking that the charts and just the cycles here last year we bought them around November the 2nd into the election night and then we took off into the end of the year maybe just maybe we're doing the reverse we're topping out and we're going to have a swoosh down and probably break that 20-minute line that could be but I don't see any signal to to short it here I don't have any pattern nothing at all zero so I have to stand aside on that okay okay thanks for calling in Mike appreciate it we'll be back with Jeff huge of the Insights folks stay tuned are you having fun trading the markets but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with become an apex predator in the trading markets and joined the Tigers Den trading room only at tfnn.com the Tigers Den is an exclusive trading room where successful traders from around the world come to exchange trades and ideas join the Dan and surround yourself with these sharpest minds in the trading world subscribers to the Tigers Den are also the first to have their questions answered live on air and can privately chat with our tfnn hosts live during their shows interact with other Tigers and Tigers as they share trading ideas news analysis and 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30-day unconditional money back guarantee don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software get your copy of the art of timing the trade charts today by visiting tfnn.com this segment is brought to you by thinkorswim for more information just click the thinkorswim banner on the front page of tfnn.com I hope we have Jeff Hughes from Alpha Insights on the line Jeff are you there okay he's not called in yet folks so we'll put him on hold if tfnn would give him a call I would certainly appreciate it anyway we'll move on to a couple of things here we're making new highs now in the S&P we just made a new high up here at 423 trading at 421.75 our forecast at high on that was at 420 and we are a little bit above that so we're paying close attention to that of course as we look at all these markets let's take just a few seconds here folks to look at the crude oil market because that's a you know they're talking about you know $120 crude oil now and I think it might be a little bit premature here but let's just you can see what's happening here over the last few days let's just spread it out a little bit so we can see here you'll be able to look at this is what we're looking at here in the crude oil that we've completed the ABCD here up yesterday for 90 level that was a double ABCD folks I didn't even draw on the one between the 28th and the 30th I didn't even draw that one in and now you see we've come down we've had lower highs now over the last the first and the second of November you can see we have had lower highs in here and are moving to the downside just a little bit so let's keep in I think we have Jeff on the line now Jeff how are you doing well I think we have Jeff on the line can you hear me hey we're in business strategic risk allocation 80 20 hey by the way I want to congratulate you and everybody in the den does a couple weeks ago you said this market has not made a new high yet and by golly you were spot on so tell us what you're looking at today Jeff well you know strategic risk allocation model is really our most bullish model right now what it's suggesting to us is that stocks are continuing to go higher and our work really supports that there's a couple of mixed signals out there that you know we're watching just to be on the safe side but the technical trend is exceptionally strong and we have a count to 4800 on the S&P 500 right now will that be today or later in the week I wish I knew the answer to that so do I hey we have a chart of the those two upside down cars I thought that was really clever this is your advanced decline line what you're watching here you want to explain to folks what that is of course so the AD line is probably one of the most reliable signals to confirm the market upside potential and what market technicians have done for ages is they've watched the all issues version of the AD line for confirmation of the market and what I mean by all issues is that it covers everything listed on the NYSE that's common stocks plus preferred stocks plus closed end bond funds and ETFs and things of that nature and by and large that looks exceptionally bullish we did make a new all-time high in late October to confirm the breakout in the S&P and the rest of the major averages the new eyes what concerns us and the reason I put that gift of the Jeep you know on the top it's right side up and it says no problem but if we look to the lower panel that's the common stocks only version of the AD line that's stripping out all the bond proxies that I mentioned and in fact the common stocks only version has not confirmed the price action of the major averages and that's why the Jeep is upside down because we might have a problem mm-hmm well there certainly had been any problems as of yet Jeff I have to tell you do some of the most extensive work I've ever seen I mean it's just amazing the amount that you work on I think it's fabulous let's take a look at this next one that we're looking at and that is the inside what do you call that internals of the market yeah so what the S&P 500 market internals really refer to is the breadth of participation the momentum of the trend and the net advancing volume that supports price and what we're seeing is you know a pretty you know significant recovery off the recent lows when the market bottomed around October 4th however we're not making new highs breadth momentum and volume have all made lower highs and so that creates something of a negative divergence with the new highs in price and historically negative divergences of this nature have tended to precede market volatility now negative divergences can be resolved in other words if we get a big breakout in momentum and breadth and those signals will no longer be concerning to us and we would be expecting them to confirm the new highs thus far we have not seen that so you know again another minor warning signal that we want to keep our eye on that suggests that there is a possibility for increased volatility okay Jeff we have a question for one of our listeners do you have a weighting mechanism with all the things that you're looking at do you have a checklist like a you know a weighting how these things work I mean do you do anything like that at all and what we call a red flag indicator so we have these things lined up when we're looking for you know a number of them the vast majority five or more of our seven key market indicators need to be flashing a red flag for us to get truly concerned and right now we have three or four of them that are kind of on the watch list okay now it's another question if you don't mind and that is really interested on the Fed days like we have today what they say or do anything like that does that affect any of these indicators that you're looking at well sometimes it does but I think it's more of a coincidence than anything else for example we've been talking about Montgomery cycle turn dates in some of our cycle work and we do have a major month I'm sorry a minor Montgomery cycle turn date on the fourth which is Thursday the Fed meeting we're going today and tomorrow we should get their announcement on Wednesday you know this somewhat correlates with that turn date and it might mark a minor top in stocks where we'd be looking for some consolidation we would use a pullback as a buying opportunity in that particular case okay now the next one we're looking at is your volatility has subsided what effect does this have well you know we put a question mark there for a reason because in fact we have seen volatility subside back to around the 16% range in terms of the VIX however if you look back to say mid 2017 we have a series of higher highs and higher lows which by my definition equates to an uptrend in volatility and so the real question here is why didn't volatility make a new all-time low when the stock market made a new all-time record extreme high and so that leaves in place another form of a negative divergence which again is one of the red flags that we're focusing on right now as a minor concern wow that's very interesting I like that I like those higher bottoms like that that gives you a really good spot for risk control and the fact that it didn't make new lows with the market going as high as it did and of course with some of the stocks like Tesla we have a question from one of our listeners about Tesla do you have an opinion on that stock because we have three or four people can't you wait for the break and we'll talk about it when we get back Jeff? Yeah you know I do Jeff huge alpha insights we'll be right back folks are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area including the surrounding Osberg, Tampa and Clearwater markets Tiger Real Estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay Area whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value or you're in the market for a second home or investment property Tiger Realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the Tampa Bay Area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels from the price you should be paying per square foot in certain up and coming areas where cash flow investment properties are capable of creating Tiger Real Estate can help you make the best decision when it comes to all areas of the market before you make one of the biggest decisions of your financial future call Tiger Real Estate LLC today at<PHONE_NUMBER> or email us at Tiger at TFNN.com that's<PHONE_NUMBER> call us today The technology around us is changing every day with so much happening it can seem impossible to keep up with all the information David White's investment newsletter The Technology Insider is designed to give you all the information you need to understand the technology that shapes today's markets and tomorrow's future David White has made his living staying on the cutting edge of technology His weekly newsletter will give you specific recommendations for value tech stocks as well as entry prices, target prices and stops to set for each trade Dave delivers his weekly newsletters every Friday with updates throughout the week You can get the Technology Insider at TFNN.com for only $37.50 Sign up for Dave's newsletter The Technology Insider and get an inside look at everything the technology sector has to offer Try it risk-free today with our 30-day money back guarantee TFNN Educating investors Are China A shares hot or not? If you trade China A shares now may be time to take a closer look Trade CHAU or CHAD Directions daily CSI 300 China A share bull and bear ETFs China A shares in either direction Visit Direction Investments.com today An investor should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the Direction shares carefully before investing Prospectus and Summary Prospectus contain this and other information about Direction shares To obtain a Prospectus or Summary Prospectus Contact Direction shares at<PHONE_NUMBER> The Prospectus or Summary Prospectus should be read carefully before investing An investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors Distributor 4-Side Fund Services LLC This is a successful transaction and with that we have a short break We're back with Jeff Huge we have two questions One is about Tesla and that will be followed up by Avis I can't explain how a market can double in price maybe they've found a cure for cancer first one is Tesla do you mind giving us your comment on that Sure of course we're recommending Tesla we actually posted this in our recent notes one of our top picks with Tesla is that back in 2020, mid-2020, the breakout above the split on a post-split basis, 175 level, saw two weekly candles that were explosive higher. And a lot of people were concerned and sold the stock at that point. We saw a modest consolidation before the stock ripped higher to about 500. And then another modest consolidation. The same situation occurred on the next breakout. You saw these big, heavy weekly candles that were just huge upside 100 points, that sort of thing. But they didn't stop there. You saw some minor consolidation and then they ripped higher to the new all-time high of 900. And here we are again. We saw a somewhat more significant consolidation suggesting to me that the initial upsurge to 900 was the first wave and that the pullback that we just experienced into, say, the June lows of around 550, that was probably wave two, which means that we're in the midst of a third wave, which should be the most powerful wave of a five-wave impulse progression. Now, our analysis suggests that the stock can go meaningfully higher. We've got target prices of 1262 initially. Then we think 1328, 1661, 2327. And ultimately we think the stock could go to $4,324. That would quadruple. That would make it the first $4 trillion market cap company if that played out. Not going to happen overnight. Not going to happen in a straight line. But it wouldn't surprise me if it happened over the next 12 to 18 months. Okay. You just gave George and Hong Kong a heart attack because he sold his long today at $11.90. Anyway, he's happy with that. He could always buy it back. Believe me, George knows that. Second was about Avis. I mean, I just saw it on the Bloomberg today that I think it doubled in price or something. Yeah, almost tripled. Actually, you know, Avis is a very small component of the transportation index, about 1.1 percent as of yesterday's close. Now it's about 3.3 percent because it's tripled. We recommended the stock on the breakout at $95. And our initial target price was only like $125. But we've been raising that target price this morning following the news. We posted on Twitter that we were reiterating our bullish opinion on Avis. We raised our target price to $475. And people said, you're crazy. But if you use the rule of seven, okay, Art Scleru's classic methodology of projecting upside targets for commodities and equities, you can arrive at a $475 target price. And of course, we've exceeded that already. The stock went to, I believe, $545 at a tie. It's now $355. We actually followed up after the stock blew through our $475 target. It said to sell the stock at $481. So what am I doing right now? I'm sitting on the sideline. You mean to tell me that it's went from $545 to $385 today? Yeah, $355 as we speak. And the stock's all over the place. It is open this morning. The load today was $173. The high was $545. This has become a meme stock, I believe. Wow. I had no idea. I saw the chart, but I had no idea that, wow. That's actually scary, you know? From my perspective, it takes, all right, let's take a look at this next one that you've been kind enough to send us, which is about that I have no idea about this victor analysis that you're doing here. But can you tell the folks what you're looking at here? Sure. We use a principle known as Elliott Wave principle. And it basically looks at various wave counts. We think that the market advances in five waves and corrects in three waves and multiple degrees of trend. And so the chart on the left there looks at really a 12-year progression from the 2009 low. And we're in the final movement to the upside. And I believe we're in the early innings of that final movement. But we expect the market to carry to 4800 at least. And if you look at the chart on the right side of this slide, you're looking at a shorter term. This is just off the March 2020 COVID crisis low. And so we're looking at about a year and a half's worth of data. This is the weekly chart. And it shows that this breakout to a new high has the potential to move much higher to the top of the channel, which would be about 52, 5300. But we get a measured count to about 48. So we like to start there with our measured count and then look at the price action between now and then and see if we can drive any new calculations for target prices. Now, the one thing I can tell you is that if in fact the S&P pulls back and closes below 43.69, it means that there's something wrong with our count. And from one perspective, the wave 4 on the right side, which we just put in on October 4th, that could be wave A of 4. And this move up could be wave B of 4, meaning that there's another move down, wave C that could just slightly take out that October 4th low. I'm not suggesting that that's going to happen. I'm saying that's one of the possibilities. And if our maker break at 43.69 is taken out, then that's probably what's happened. Wow. Okay. Now, the next one is one that is very interesting. I don't understand it at all. So if you would explain to us what you're talking about with these different, what do you call those things? Not wave counts, but the weights kept vectors of the cap, cap weighted sectors. Yeah. So we're looking at the 11 gig sectors of the S&P 500. And where technology and healthcare had been the leaders a month ago, we've seen them rotate down into the lagging and weakening space. So the tech's still relatively strong, but it's rotating into the weakening quadrant. In other words, it's relative strength and losing momentum. Conversely, energy is soaring, financials are doing exceptionally well. And so much to our surprise, discretionary has exploded to the leading quadrant. It led last month up 12.1%. And so that surprise to us has really shifted us to focus on discretionary. And of course, if you look at the next slide, I've actually shown the discretionary index and this huge breakout that we've seen. And we believe that the ETF, XLY, can rally further to around $241. Now, one of the things I would mention about it is the simple fact that Tesla is the largest component of the discretionary sector. And that is driving much of that performance. And so if we're right about our analysis of Tesla, then we're going to be right about the sector. And we're playing it two different ways. You can either play it with emphasis on Tesla by buying XLY, or you can just buy an equal weight version of the entire sector, which is symbol RCD. Okay. Jeff, will you stay with us and let the folks know how they can reach you, okay? Sure, of course. We'll be right back, folks. Jeff Hughes, Alpha Insights. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority in technical market analysis. And it's not just dry, tedious text either. TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV, live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern for free. Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN. Educating investors. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks, and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at TFNN.com. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices.  First time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. TFNN.com Educating investors.  The Tiger First mortgage program may be the program for you. The best rate on a five-year CD in the country right now according to bankrate.com is paying 1% per year or $1,000 per 100,000 invested. The Tiger First mortgage program pays 7% per year, paid monthly, on secured, high-value, buildable properties in St. Petersburg, Florida. The investment is for four years, paying 7% per year or $7,000 per 100,000 invested. Your investment is secured by high-value real estate in St. Petersburg, Florida. Your investment can be anywhere from 100,000 to 500,000. Do you want to make 1,000 per year on $100,000 invested or 7,000 per year on a secured Tiger First mortgage? The Tiger First mortgage program may be just the program for you. The Tiger First mortgage program pays 7% per year, paid monthly. For more information, you can call<PHONE_NUMBER>. That's<PHONE_NUMBER>. Okay, we're talking with Jeff Hughes, Alpha Insights. Jeff, tell us the products that you have. They're really quite extensive and how they can reach you. Sure, absolutely. You can always find me on my website, jwhinvestment.com, or you can follow me on Twitter, at alpha underscore Insights. I publish a variety of institutional and retail publications. The institutional publication is Alpha Insights. It includes our monthly review and outlook and weekly playbook. Then I also publish a newsletter entitled Huge Insights. It's a monthly newsletter that's designed to help individual investors and those that are not fast money traders, if you will, come up with more thematic ideas, things that have a lot of shelf life that can play out over months as opposed to days and weeks. Those two publications are available at either of those locations. Wow, that's amazing. Well, thank you very much for joining us, and we'll have you on again soon. Great information. I really appreciate it. You have a wealth of things to share with us, and we certainly do appreciate it. So, Jeff Hughes, Alpha Insights. Travel safe, and I hope your legislation there in Minneapolis passes so that you have a police department. Exactly. Thanks, Larry. I appreciate it. You bet. You bet, folks. Jeff Hughes, Alpha Insights. I did post the picture of the painting behind me. If you do want a picture of it, let me know, and I'll send it out to you if you like. We will have tomorrow, as our guest will be Shane Smollion Thursday. We will have Stan Harley, and I'm still searching for someone for the Friday show. So, live every day in an attitude of gratitude, and may God bless and be sure to help take care of your neighbors, folks. A lot of them need help, and things are not going to get easier right away, but they will soon. So, it's always going to be brighter. So, we got to remember those things also. We'll see you all on the flip side, and may God bless.


The central problem with the Irish situation is that a massive accumulation of private debt ended up being socialised, being taken on by the state. During the 2000s, property speculators in Ireland borrowed enormous sums of money from Irish banks, Irish banks borrowed it from European banks and when it looked as though that system was going to come crashing down, the Irish government issued a guarantee backing all of that private debt and leaving all of that debt on the government books. And that's really the main reason why Ireland now has this massive sovereign debt crisis. Well the trike is definitely not a good option to manage debt in Europe. One of the ironies of this situation is I come from a global justice background, I've been campaigning on issues of global south debt for many years and of course the IMF has never been a hero of ours in those circles and yet the IMF has actually been not the worst actor in the trike. If you look at the Irish situation, the IMF proposed some modest write down of some of the debts that were owed to private creditors and that was vetoed by the European Central Bank and by the European Commission. So you know you're in trouble when the IMF is the least bad cop on the block. So the trike is definitely not the answer here and that's obviously true not just in Ireland but in other countries as well where you've had very similar policies, Greece, Portugal, the Baltic countries etc. In terms of the alternative, I think the ideal alternative would be some kind of cross European solidarity among debtor countries, a progressive coordinated multilateral write down. Failing that, I think the next best option is unilateral action by governments who have the will to do it in terms of writing down debt. Well Ireland has ostensibly exited its bailout program, it is supposedly a sovereign and independent nation again, but of course in practice it's not, it's carrying this enormous burden of debt which as a proportion of income has not actually even peaked yet and some of the debt, some of the socialised private debt has been converted into a particular form of government bond, the last of which is going to fall due for repayment in about 40 years time. So unless action is taken even at this relatively late stage but not too late stage to write down debt, then our grandchildren are going to end up repaying this debt and of course in the meantime enormous damage has been inflicted on our society in terms of unemployment, in terms of cutbacks, cuts in people's living standards, people who could afford at least, cuts in health and education, rising suicide rates, rising alcoholism and very high levels of immigration. So a high social price has already been paid and I think it's very important to ensure that that price is not paid into the indefinite future.