So what I decided to do for this audience is to focus on one of the many controversial points in my recent reconstruction of ProtoBask, or the oldest form of the Euskadian language. Sorry, I know as I was here. Just for those of you who don't do much with Bask, some of the reasons why it's thought to be sort of a difficult language to work on are no longer probably that relevant. I mean, the language is still spoken by very many people, under a million, but still it's quite healthy. It's spoken, as you probably know, in the Bask country. There are at least seven major dialects. Some of the big dialects have disappeared in the last 100 or so years, but there's still a lot of diversity. There's also the Aquitainian language, which most people agree is a relation of modern Bask. And this language is attested in Latin text, dating from about 0 to 300 before the Common Era. There are also many place names from antiquity that can be used in the reconstruction. I think some of the medieval data will be discussed in this workshop as well. And yes, well, the language is considered an isolate by many, including those who are producing the etymological dictionary that will appear this year. There's been a lot of work on Bask historical phonology, the best known being the work by Martinet and Michelina. There's been work on Aquitainian. There's been work on the root structure of proto-Bask, on the accentual system, starting with the different dialects and reconstructing back from there. And there's also been work on the phonetic basis of sound change in the history of the Bask language. And again, you'll hear more about that later in the workshop. And the reason I said that I think the situation has changed from early in the 20th century is because there are now a great deal of lexical resources on the language that are searchable, including the 16-volume orotarico escaricegia.  And now we also have collections of Aquitainian data. Actually, the last thing on this slide is the collected digital version of the cartularies compiled around 1100, which contain place names and personal names, many of which maintain sounds that have been lost in modern Bask. So for the past five or so years, I've been working on reconstructing proto-Bask, which would be meaning methodologically using both methods of internal reconstruction and the comparative method where the Aquitainian and dialect data is available. And much of this builds on the work of Michelina, in particular, as you'll see, the debu-calization of initial P-T-K to H plays a central role in my reconstruction. It's something that Michelina thought was going on, but I think I've found many more examples of that. So what I'm presenting today is a very small piece of the big puzzle relating to the status of sibilance in the oldest form of the Bask language. So I'm just reviewing here some of the problems with reconstructing isolates. I think most of us are aware of these here, so I'm just going to go quickly the comparative method. I didn't know whether we would all be Neogramarians using the same method, so these are reviewed here. But there is a problem in working on Bask, and that is in identifying inherited words, because we know from the known history of Europe that Euskadian has been in contact with at least three branches of Indo-European. The Celtic languages, the Romance languages, beginning in about 200 BC and continuing, and then Germanic languages as well. So a big part of the difficult work is separating out potential loans from inherited vocabulary. And of course, it really helps to have a good sense of what the proto-language looked like to start weeding these things out. But I think you have to try to be doing both things at the same time. In the etymologies that I offer at the end of the book that I've published, I've tried to stay away from any term which has what looks like a potential cognate in Celtic, Romance, or Germanic, unless I have a good argument why it could not be borrowed. So here, words that appear to be native, maybe loans, and seeming loans may be native. So here we have a word that you might see later today or tomorrow, Ibaii. That's medieval Basque for river, so it's attested with that H in the ultimate syllable. And this is considered by most Basqueologists to be a native term. But there is a Celtic form or proto-Celtic form which looks very similar. We can't definitively rule out that it could have been loan from some Celtic language. We have other words.  But I think there are reasons to believe that actually bar is a native Basque root. It occurs in constructions like this term elbar, which has a semantic range that's sort of been extended outside of barring with an obstacle. But what's important about the word elbar is the initial part, the el, which I believe comes from del, which is a proto-Basque root. So this just shows you the difficulties inherent in this kind of exercise, especially if it turns out that proto-Basque is related to proto into European. That means there are going to be roots that look similar in the two languages. So as a background, and some of this is on the handout, the proto-Basque vowel system is a five-vowel system. On this slide, the diphthongs are in parentheses because, in many cases, things that look like diphthongs in modern Basque would have had an H or an N between the two vowels. But I'm following Michelina for the most part in this five-vowel system. And the big differences that come up are in the consonant system. So here you see Michelina's 1977 system. There's no P, but there's TK, BDG, and then at least two series of affricates and fricatives. That's the focus here. The two fricative sounds. You see that these are also reconstructed in Nakara's work. And they also are in the forthcoming Basque etymological dictionary. There is a contrast in all of those systems between an apical S-like sound and a laminal S-like sound, which still persists in some modern Basque dialects. And that is reconstructed back to the oldest form of the language. I am contesting that. This is my revised consonant inventory on this slide. As you see, there's only a single sibilant. So the problem here is, how do we get from a one-sibilant system to a two-sibilant system? And that's what I'd like to talk about. Summarizing agreement with earlier proposals, everybody, I think, agrees that Proto-Basque had a voice series BDG, sonarance NLR, and H, which was not reconstructed by, for instance, Trask. He did not have an H. That there was a single rhodic in Basque, not two is in the modern language. And that all consonants except for this rhodic could occur in the onset. Codas were limited to R, L, N, S. And in the coda, you could have R, L, N, followed by S. The differences here between my proposal and others are I'm arguing that Proto-Basque had an M, that Proto-Basque had a P, a voiceless bilabial stop, that Proto-Basque stops were aspirated. I think you'll hear more about this when Kanda Egretsegi speaks. And the focus today, that there was only a single sibilant in Proto-Basque, and that the origin of the contrast between the apical and the laminal sibilant originates from sibilant consonant clusters in the Proto-Language. So in reconstructing Proto-Basque, I have come up with sort of syntagmatic versus paradigmatic properties that aid reconstruction. Syntagmatically, most of these are the same as those used by earlier linguists such as Michelina, that you could have a bare root, a root in a compound as first or second element and reduplicated roots. What's different are the paradigmatic properties. I have identified what I think are two well-attested prefixes. One which is a nominalizer, ha, often expressed as ah in modern Basque without the H. A collective prefix, H-I, the verbal prefix H-E, which usually again is surfacing without the H, is a verbalizer which has been well recognized in Basque historical linguistics as has the participial agitival suffix. And then the two elements at the bottom, number four and number five on this slide, which are new, is an S which serves as a nominalizer, suffix and an S prefix which can produce an SC cluster from a single consonant initial root. And here this is illustrated with the protobasque root bil, which I think is going to appear in the Basque etymological dictionary. It's a well-recognized root meaning turned around as in the modern verb ebili to go or go around. And you can see that this root occurs with the ah prefix, the A prefix. It occurs as an agitival or participial form. It occurs in the word, I believe, it occurs in the word beats, which means like to meet or to come together. It can also be to round up. And perhaps even in the word si, siya, which is the word for belly button, okay. Another small difference between this approach and others is what roots look like. So I've identified, yes, monosyllabic roots, but also disyllabic roots. And you see in the first column, the last two entries here are roots that are claimed to begin with SC clusters. Okay, so let us talk about the single-siblin hypothesis. All the previous reconstructions of protobasque that I'm aware of using the comparative method, I should say, pause it, a contrast between an apical S and a laminal S that's continued in common Basque. And the motivation for this contrast are minimal and near-minimal pairs in the modern language where the two sibilants contrast. So we have words like shu for fire versus su. And as I said, in many modern varieties, the contrast is preserved, okay. That between the apical and the laminal. This contrast also exists in medial position, in intervocalic position, and in final position where the sibilant is africated, okay. So this is a general property of Basque that a sibilant fricative becomes an africate in word final position, okay. So from hach, you get hach. And so this is the big stumbling block to reconstructing a single sibilant. These two sounds contrast. Nevertheless, I believe there are five distinct types of arguments for a single sibilant in the proto language. Okay, the first argument here says, well, if you have a vowel, a sonarant, and a sibilant, you never get a contrast between the apical and the laminal in this position, okay. So that's one position where the two sounds do not appear to contrast. Furthermore, there are synchronic alternations between roots or stems that show a sonarant followed by the laminal, z, where there may or may not be a sonarant present suggesting a sound change where erotic was lost in erotic sibilant cluster. I'm gonna go through the evidence for these. Third, there are root doublets where a z in one form corresponds to an sc cluster in another. Fourth, there seems to be a distributional asymmetry between the s and the z sound. The z sound seems to be at least twice as common in basic vocabulary items. And finally, there appear to be related stop and laminal sibilant initial roots where, well, that capital T represents a historical PTK that's undergone in most cases, initial debucalization. Okay, I mentioned the initial debucalization at the start as something that Michellena had discussed briefly in his work on bass historical phonology. And so I spent a lot of time trying to dig up roots that when they were not in initial position had initial PTK in initial position. They have H to support this general sound change of PTK to H in initial position. If we see then T or PTK with z initial roots, it suggests a possible spustusca to z, the laminal sound change. Okay, so the first thing I mentioned were inherited monosyllables with vowel sonar and sibilant rhymes where there's no contrast between s and z in this position. Here are some roots that I have reconstructed. You've already seen the second one, that root, pil. Okay, and what you notice here is that after a sonarant, you find the laminal africate, not the apoco, the t-z form. So the suggestion here is that at the bottom, these all derive from sonarant plus, well, but what that really is is s, right? Because the africation is a late rule. So to go through the steps, right? The distributional asymmetry suggests a single sibilant, s in the coda. There was a sound change then of coda cluster s-laminalization, taking s to a laminal when it's preceded by a consonant in the coda. And then the common bass final africation, which results in now a contrast between two africates as opposed to the two fricates. Just to show how this works, right? We have a form like protobascache with s not in a cluster versus the word for alder, which has an s that is in a cluster, okay? And what we get on the surface is two africates that are distinct because one originates in a cluster and one does not. So then the obvious question one poses is, wait a second, you said that the africates contrast post-vocalically. So what do we say about words like guts, right? This is the word for salt and huts or ats, the word for finger. Well, in this case, I'm arguing that there was a sonorant there. It's been lost, but we have other arguments that it actually exists. In the case of the word for salt, gud is a root, which means grain, okay, as in a grain of salt. And there's a lot of evidence supporting that root in bass. So I said at the start that there was other evidence for this coda cluster simplification, okay, namely actual stem variants within the language, okay? So you can see that whatever the simplification is, it's sort of continued to a point where we can recognize it. So we have the word, for instance, ats, bear, these are modern bass terms. The word for badger, which seems to be derived from bear, right, has many forms actually, but one of them of interest to us has an R and one does not have an R. And the one that does not have an R is showing this laminal fricative exactly where we would expect it, right? Because historically the claim is it's laminal because of the preceding sonorant, okay? The same is true for these forms, for aldergrove and the word for butter, okay? So these alternations motivate a prosodically conditioned coda cluster simplification. Notice the simplification is going on in diselabic or longer forms, okay? So the actual exceptions, I would say, are words like gotts and ats. We don't expect the R to be lost in the monosyllable, but it is. In diselables it seems like it was a fairly regular process. Okay, so again, just showing how this would work. In the case of the finger paw word in the last column of this little table, you see the reconstruction with a root pa, which means like foot, actually. And then a stem, final R, the nominalizer S, okay? So from this we get things like modern pats atts or a patch in the form with the historical ha prefix, okay? The other two words you already saw. With the coda cluster S-laminalization process and coda cluster simplification, we're now in a situation where actually we can show there's no evidence for an S versus Z contrast in the coda in protobasque, right? All of the instances of the laminal can be derived from clusters, laminalization in clusters, okay? So we're now left with the question of, well, what is going on in other positions of the word, okay? The, in medial position, my claim is that the medial position of these roots are cases which were historically final. They've had suffixes added. So the position we're left to deal with is initial position. The only other position where S and Z could contrast is in the syllable onset. S is well attested in the onset, sometimes affricated to tz, and you have some examples here of what I think are true continued S from protoforms with S as in the word for fire or the word for moth, see? But obviously you see there were words that begin with Z in the modern language, so what do we say about these? Well, the third argument for a single sibilant is that there are things that look suspiciously like doublets in the language, okay? The pair in A on this slide, you have two words, ashtun, which is the common word for heavy. This would be a word that would be on a Swadesh list, okay? It has an S-T cluster exactly in the position where I would expect a root initial segment or series of segments because A looks like the ha prefix that I mentioned. And then you also see there is a word, not very common in modern times, a sun, which means full loaded pregnant. So there's an overlapping meaning here between the pregnancy of people and animals. There's a semantic field, which is not uncommon cross-linguistically, right? Heavy meaning, pregnant, weighted down, and so on. It very much looks like a set of doublets. And the same is true for the word for skin shell bark, a sun, okay? I'm comparing this to that Ska cluster in Asaska, assuming that there's been sibilant harmony in this word. Sibilant harmony is a common process in Bask. Okay, there are more of these doublets in the languages, in the language. Here's just a few more sets. Istil is mud-filled puddle pond effluent sindu, means to dirty or muddy. So the idea here is that S-T-I-L is the historical form of this root. Okay, I spent some time talking about these things. That there are doublets, so if we have doublets, we propose then Sphastuska clusters. What happens to them? S becomes Z in a cluster, and then we have simplification of the cluster where the output is just the laminal sibilant. On the handout that you have, there's a paragraph or so about the phonetic basis of this kind of sibilant retraction. Cross-linguistically, there's been quite a bit of work on the phonetics of sibilant retraction in clusters. It is not an uncommon process. I know we have many people here working on Indo-European languages, so I'm sure you can think of many cases in Indo-European, including things like German, Ska, Tusha, okay? That's exactly the kind of sound change I'm talking about here, except that in Basque, all three clusters, Stospa, Ska, became something like S. I mentioned that there are asymmetries in the distribution of the sounds S and Z in Basque, and it's hard to express that by just showing lists of words, but there are many words like za, sa bada, zain, and so on and so forth, which would be considered inherited Basque words. They begin with Z, and I imagine this will be a big letter in the Basque etymological dictionary, because these are all considered native words. There are many more beginning with Z than beginning with S. And finally, and this is sort of very interesting property, there are roots that appear with Z, which then can be related to things that occur on the surface with a P-T-K that has been debutalized in initial position, so it shows up as H. And I think, yes, I've included here sort of my favorite word because if this etymology is correct, it's very interesting also from a comparative perspective. So I think the word for 10 in Basque, which is at the top of this list here, a la, has puzzled people, there are many different etymologies of the word for 10. Basque has a base 20 counting system, so 10 is sort of only halfway, but under my analysis, this word for 10 actually means at the top, or top of the count. The question is, on what basis do I reconstruct a T for this form? Well, I do it on the basis of some other words that don't really look necessarily like they're related to the word 10, but the one that really caught my interest was the fourth entry down here where you see tamar in a word, shash tamar, which means residue remains, waste, flotsam, the things that float on top of the water, the dirty things. Shash in Basque means dirty, and it shows up in lots of words, it shows up in the word for broom to clean up and so on and so forth. But the point here is, literally this would be, mean something like dirt at the top, okay? So it's an attestation of tamar, which I'm relating to amar, the word for 10, meaning top. There are other words like gardama, which means the, seems to mean the milk fat, and it means milk fat in modern Basque, but literally the drops things at the top, and what's interesting here is that there's a very common Basque word, samarra, which is the Basque sheepskin coat. It has many other meanings in Basque, including skull cap, frontal piece put on an ox, a blacksmith's apron, a smock. It is a piece of clothing or paraphernalia that goes on top of something, okay? That seems to be the general meaning of the term if we put everything together. So why does it have a z? It has a z, I'm saying, because it is historically derived from an ST cluster. So this is the point at which there's some other forms like this that I've given you information on. This is the point at which I say, well, this is all very interesting, the internal reconstruction of ST clusters in Basque because with things like spustasca, we have more material for a comparison between this language and this proto-Basque language and proto-Indo-European. And for this, because I'm out of time, I can refer you to the handout and to more information in the 2018 book. And thank you all very much for listening.


od understanding of what's actually going on at the agency level that I don't think we necessarily have what the second advisory committee gathered was some anecdotal evidence that they were able to incorporate in bringing this recommendation about but we certainly advanced in our report and we've talked it up to folks on the Hill but I think it's there's a long way to go we need help thank you okay if there are no other questions from the committee I know Melanie wanted to just briefly update us on what's going on at OIB I Melanie Peste I have a fun update we have just published literally this morning our summary of the annual FOIA reports for fiscal year 18 so all the data all the agency annual FOIA reports are in cleared in the data uploaded on to FOIA.gov so that was a big obviously a bigger challenge this year with the shutdown than prior years I want to just give you what all of us expected the number of incoming requests went up yet again it's like people cannot get enough for FOIA we are up to 863,000 requests which and actually and well and they'll just tell you compare but we also agencies also overall increase their processing of requests so once again agencies keep upping their game and doing better each year agencies overall processed 830,000 requests and when you look at how many requests were received last fiscal year it was 818 so if the incoming had stayed the same the processing of 18 would have surpassed the incoming and we would have seen backlog reduction but we just no matter how much the agencies process more each year we seem to be in a cycle where the incoming yet again trumps the processing so it's a really interesting trend that just keeps continuing the exemptions that were most commonly used remain the same as they always have been that over 50% of the exemptions used are 6 and 7c for personal privacy 7e is the third most used exemption we also talked a little bit during the course of this discussion today about the difference in the difference in agency size and how the proportionality of who gets the most requests so once again we had five agencies that got 70% of all FOIA requests DHS with almost 400,000 requests last year they were 395 so it's just staggering DOJ was next we were 96,000 so we're heading to the 100,000 the sixth digit DOD was afterward with the next one with 57,000 NARA with 52,000 and then USDA was our fifth largest agency this year which is that they are a new entrant into the top five in whether that's a good thing or a bad thing and then the one thing that was also a nice highlight was that agencies were able to reduce the amount of time that they took to process simple track requests so that helped show that our focus on that our attention our negotiating with requesters to get simple track requests is reaping rewards agencies are able to process those in a faster amount of time so that was a really nice statistic so the data's all available as I said on FOIA.gov any questions for Melanie anyone on the phone okay so we're right on schedule we are now at the point where we're happy to take any public comments I would like to Ashila if there's anything on livestream that needs to be reported she's shaking her head no everyone is just glued to their computer screens and just can't think of anything to say do we have anyone from the audience here that would like to come up and offer any comments to the committee no okay well that was easy um so um I think we're all very excited about all the work that's going on and I think it was great to hear from each other about what is going on our next meeting is Thursday, September 5th at 10 a.m. right here on McGowan Theatre I want to invite everyone to visit the OGIS website and social media we're going to post all this information up there from today's meeting and I'm just going to ask anyone on the committee if there are any other questions before we adjourn otherwise we'll stand adjourned any any oh I'm sorry Kirsten is asking me to remind everyone to return their NARA folders as they are they've become quite a scarce resource and they're fairly expensive to reproduce as we have learned so we are reusing them if there are no other questions or concerns oh Jason has a question or a concern just a question Alina do you have or Kirsten do you have any ideas for speakers or for people who are going to be invited to give presentations to us through the remaining time that we're together so I did mention that I thought the technology subcommittee co-chairs I'm putting them on the spot but I would like for them to come and brief us but I think otherwise we have a pretty open slate we do certainly need to leave room for lots of work time at the last two meetings so but if you have any suggestions it sounds like maybe you do perhaps you could let us know I would yeah I do think that we do need to leave work time and so if this is precluded by it then so be it but I I would be interested in hearing from some lawyer advocates from the public interest community of what they find as challenges in filing lawsuits against the government and we can talk offline about some of our favorite people who are out there who are experts at this and I'd like to invite them to to come I'm not going to put Lee on the spot but we have Lee on the on the committee he can more than happy to to gather a Lucian all people obviously yeah when you gather a panel I'd be it's more than happy to participate okay anyone else all right everyone we stand adjourned thank you again for your time I'm giving you back about 10 minutes all right great thanks


Okay, Jovanka, you played Leandro Grisa today, the game was a draw. Tell us something about it.  At first something went a little bit wrong in the opening and I thought that I was slightly worse and then as usual it seems in this tournament time travel kicked off and things just got crazy and maybe I even missed a few Wins but the position was a bit mad So I'm not sure but I'm somehow left with a feeling of disappointment that maybe I could have scored a point It's the one that got away. Yeah. Wow One of many that got away Okay, let's have a look at the game Okay, Jovanka after lots of adventures you reach this position just after the time control. Yes What happened next? Well, my opponent actually gave a check and Then offered me a draw and I was like, no, thank you So because I just retreated my queen and I thought actually I'm doing really really well here You know, I think if he trades queens and the rook ending is probably one for me And so he just played queen to be one and here I think I went a little bit wrong and The computer showed me a very nice way to kind of net the advantage And that's actually to create a hiding place for this king and to play the ruthless and very calm h3 It's a really cool move that isn't it? I was your king is just getting in the way of your mating attack. Exactly need a little hidey hole for it Exactly and and the big point is that really that he can't get really a play queen takes pawn because the queen will dash over to b7 and I will resume my check mating ideas. Nice one. And yeah, it's just all about king safety because in the game I Played this move and I thought yeah, looks good But he had the really sneaky idea of just going ripped up seven. Whoops What's happening here? I don't know Where are we rook rook f7 rook f7 and you know the funny thing is I can't even do this Rook takes work because suddenly queen to f4 and he were trade of queens and the king and pawn ending Would be one because of this outside passport. So just so unfair when you've got an extra pawn I know but you know What can I say, you know, it's the golden rule when it comes to these queen and rook endings is all about king safety and my king it's not very safe, so it's vulnerable some to some checks and I think maybe I could have just gone Rook takes pawn But I didn't find the most accurate way forward and I ended up drawing Enough said. Thank you very much. Thanks


So we made it here after a long day of driving yesterday. We started off our day in Nairn Centre, Ontario Way out by Sudbury. We drove all the way through the narrow road of Highway 17 Squirmed our way through Northern Ontario over Lake Superior and got past Thunder Bay Almost a drive. Couldn't quite make it there. Couldn't quite make it. I was about an hour short So I stopped here in Ignis. I haven't spent many nights here at this petrol pass, but it was a nice quiet place to sleep tonight Did the trip Today I get to go home. I'm very excited It's been quite the trip. We went from Winnipeg, Manitoba area Down through to Cranford, New Jersey Then across on the Long Island to Hapog Then from Hapog we went all the way back up to the Pennsylvania border Realized that our load changed went back down to the 87 to the 87 went up into Quebec To Montreal and then we went up to Quebec City that load got cancelled came back down to Montreal got loaded found New Freight Went down to Kingston, Ontario picked up that skid steer And then my trailer was filled up and we started coming back home here And it was about a two-day drive two and a half day drive From Kingston, Ontario to get home.  I want to go home All right, it's time to get rolling and the brakes work fast equal just turned off already Okay, all their lights are turned off their bumper on that and get very upset stick around Too far out in town I can see across the street. So that's an improvement as long as they go a good speed You'll see it first go down to half the speed limit for every corner and then you know drive 20 under the speed limit the whole time Which you can't really say is like it Terrible and speeding through everywhere, right? It's way better than speeding, but at the same time I'm not getting paid by the hour If the conditions are good not like today, but if the conditions are good and the roads are dry I'd like to go to the speed limit. Thank you But the funny thing is when you get to a passing lane with those same guys suddenly their truck can do 120, right?  I wonder people just don't realize I think I think they do Don't purpose to be honest That has to be a purpose Today is a little bit different because we have this fog so everyone's gonna be moving a little slower understandably At least I hope so. There's still gonna be those guys that want to do 130 through here You know speed limit's 90 like x-ray vision goggles that they wear that they can see better than everyone else Doesn't matter what the conditions are they're doing 130


Reliabilit ovat yksi kertaa, että randomaiset voivat influensioida study-resultaamista, mutta se ei ole yksi kertaa, joten se on tärkeää ymmärtää, miten erilaiset kertaiset erilaiset ovat kertaiset ja miten he ovat erilaiset. Reliabilit ja samppalien erilaiset ovat yksi kertaiset erilaiset randomaiset. Reliabilit ovat kertaiset omistamiseksi. How much your individual measures vary from one measurement occasion to another. Sampling error, on tyhjellä kertaa, on edelleen toinen asio dati, joka on randomaisin erilaisethrilaiset durustajat vuosenteet. Sampling error refers to the composition of the sample and how it varies from one random sample to another. So the idea here is that reliability measures of the same individuals, Miten ne varmistavat yksi kertaa, jos me olemme the same measurement procedures? Sampling error refers to how much different repeated random samples from the same population influence the study results. Definition for reliability is how much measure of a trait of an individual varies over measurement occasions. Sampling error, how much statistical estimate varies over repeated samples because different samples contain different individuals. So this again is a bit different. Courses of reliability and sampling error are also different. Reliability is related to the quality of your measurement instrument. It's not related to sample size and sampling error on the other hand is related to sample size and population heterogeneity only if you have a random sample. Consequences of these two sources of error are also different. So reliability if you have unreliable measures then statistical associations using those unreliable measures will be inconsistent and biased unless you explicitly take reliability into account in your statistical models, which can be a bit complicated to do. Sampling error on the other hand simply influences the efficiency of your estimates. If you have a high sampling error then your results could still be unbiased. They are just less precise. So these two sources of random error have different, very different consequences. Sampling error is easy to reduce by increasing sample size. To reduce unreliability you have to improve your measurement practices. Let's take a look at the bathroom scale example. Reliability here is whether these real weights here, these people here are an accurate presentation of the population. So is this a representative sample? That's what the sampling error is about. If we happen to take shorter people than on average in the population by chance to our sample then we'll have a larger sampling error than what we would have if our people in the sample are closer to the population mean. Then reliability is whether these real weights and the bathroom scale readings actually agree. So assuming perfect validity there would be no other measurement there except reliability. So these are about two different quantities. Is our sample representative, that's the sampling error, are our measures representative of these actual values? How closely they match? That's the question of reliability. Assuming perfect validity. We can also take a look at this through the hierarchy of reliability and validity. So reliability is whether you have the same sample, you measure it again, do you get the same result? Sampling error goes to the statistical conclusion validity and is about if you have a new sample from the same population, do you get the same result? If you don't get the same result from a new sample then either you have a reliability problem or you have a sampling error issue. If you have a different result from the same sample then it's a reliability issue. Then finally we have the external validity which is about new population. So if our results don't generalize, if we repeat the study with the new population and we don't get the same result then if we have ruled out sampling error, we have ruled out unreliability then it's an issue of external validity or generalizability. So these are different sources of random error or why your results could be different from one study to another and it's important to understand what the differences are because they are sometimes confused.


We're about to head down the road and pick up our load, I'm not even too sure what it is yet, but we'll find out when we get there. This is a, I don't really know what it is. It's a rock divider, rock separator, rocks, something to do with rocks. Taking it from this gravel pit, here in Belle Plain, Minnesota, to a gravel pit in St. Malwell, Manitoba. They said it's about 10,000 pounds, there's the crane that loaded me over there, he's just cleaning up. I'm going to get this thing secured and we'll be on our way. There's a pipe on the other side yet that I had to belly wrap in here. These are the tarps that Caden had put on that last load of lumber, bringing that back to the yard. Got this weird metal piece that's part of it back here, a one strapped there, I'm going to put another one there yet, tie that down. And this is the pipe here, this is a loose pipe, right? So what I'm doing is I'm belly wrapping it in here and sucking it against this, right down here, against that foot, so that it's pinned against that and down, and it won't be able to move that way. This is just an extra piece up here, I'll probably just throw like a short strap just over this thing so it doesn't flap around up there, okay? I got some work to do, I'm going to put you guys in the truck here, I want to get going, it's already 1pm, we're close to it, it's got to be, I don't know exactly what time it is right now, but that sun doesn't like us very much this time of year, and it's just begging to go back down below that horizon and I'd like to be moving before then. Alright, okay, let's go. We're going to have double triple checked everything, and we've got to get up this hill here without getting stuck, we're loaded now so we shouldn't have a problem. When I was maneuvering around in this pit down here, I was empty, I almost got stuck a few times, even in this little bit of snow, when I don't have a load on my trailer I don't have very much traction at all, just hold that momentum all the way up the hill, don't stop on the hill, you don't got to go wicked fast, but you got to go fast enough, right? In 200 meters, turn left onto 295th Avenue. I wonder if this is the exit, or is that the exit? I came in here, I don't know if this is an entrance only or what, it's an exit today, there's no sign saying anything, so. Finally, three kilometers, proceed to the highlighted route. I had to pick up some of my paperwork here in Alexandria, Minnesota at the pilot, faxed over some paperwork from the office that I would need for the border, so that was waiting for me here, picked that up, I think you have to pay with 50 cents a sheet, that's what it seemed like. I had seven pages and it costed me $3.76 US, which is kind of silly, right, but I guess I got to get back the cost of the paper and ink somehow, but, so we got my paperwork, I had a shower here, gave myself a haircut, cleaned myself up, now we've got to go up into the cold, there's a deep freeze settling into Manitoba tonight, I almost just want to stay here in Alexandria because it's not going to get so cold here, but it's too far away, I have to go the rest of the way, I'm going to wait till we get back into Canada to fuel there, and I'm going to go somewhere close to St. Molo and sleep there, I might even sleep at St. Agath at the Flying J, that's probably what I'll do, or even in Morris, I'll find somewhere, but I've got to go fuel up tonight, first I want to go to bed with full tanks of fuel, it's supposed to go down to minus 32 degrees Celsius, minus 43 with the wind chill last I checked, if you're wondering what minus 43 is in Fahrenheit, it's minus 43, Celsius and Fahrenheit meet up at about minus 40, so it's cold, it's gonna be a cold one tonight, gonna have to button up the winter front on the grill when we stop, and stay warm, we all knew it was coming sooner or later, the polar vortex is here, okay, well let's go, I may not need to go all the way to, I know like the Flying J and St. Adolphs a little out of the way, but I have to make sure that tonight that I sleep at a location that has a 24-hour truck stop or facility where I can go into, just in case if the worst happens an old blue gets a little tired and doesn't want to run through the night, I need somewhere warm where I can go inside, I don't want to stop at just a parking lot somewhere, I grab a lot where there's no facilities, so we got to be careful, I'll wait for this guy, no he's taken too long, I'm going, not today buddy, I am nice every other day, today it's gonna be cold, not as nice when it's cold, off we go, it's not so cold here yet, it's only minus four degrees Celsius here, it's around 25 Fahrenheit, but it's gonna drop down quick once we get into North Dakota, onto the I-29 and start heading north, it's gonna change quickly, that's why I thought it'd be nice to stay here, but this is too long of a drive to do tomorrow morning, I have to keep going, otherwise I won't have as far as I, I won't be able to get as far tomorrow, right, because I'm hoping I can get reloaded after I get this thing off my trailer, and I want to keep going, I really don't like the deep freeze, like I don't mind winter, it's tolerable, we can deal with it, right, as long as the snow is not on the road, we'll deal with it, it's the really cold, like below minus 25, it's just, it's a little ridiculous and a little over the top, I really think it was a design flaw when whoever designed the earth designed it, I don't think that that was supposed to happen, but who knows, coming over there, hours to go, always dings like that, like a doorbell whenever there's a turn or something coming, coming up ahead that I should pay attention to, you're wondering why it's always ding like a doorbell, she's very annoying, but I like to leave her volume on, because if I turn it off I forget to turn it back on, and then I get lost in my thoughts and music and stuff, and I miss my turn, alright bud, alright bud, I know you don't want to go too fast around here, you don't want to tip, but come on there, kind of a sharp corner, I don't like on-ramps like this, very hard to get up to speed then, because now this is, this is the only space we have right here to get up to highway speed, and there's no way we can do that, so we don't really have a choice, and right now we're entering traffic at 35 miles an hour, which can be very dangerous and disruptive to the flow of traffic, if they would have had the ramp on this side, you'd have the whole like a whole half mile to gain speed, right, so that when you hit the highway, you're already doing like at least 55-60 mile an hour, on-ramps anyways if I was in charge, but as we've all been over and been through, I am not in charge, things would be very different if I was in charge, I don't know if it'd all be better, but it'd be different, I think it'd be better, hey bud watch where you're going, man he just about drove right off the edge there, you see that, you awake, we made it back, I fueled up at St. Agath Manitoba, I put about $1400 worth of fuel in, 663 liters or 175 US gallons, I didn't go over all the numbers on video there, it's so cold outside, it's minus 45 with the wind chill outside that door right now, so I brought the truck here to the shop for night and we're gonna park it in here overnight and then go deliver that load tomorrow, it's just much better that way, if I if I park the truck at the Flying J or somewhere you know what God's planning on, in this weather you don't shut your truck off at night, you're not gonna get started in the morning, minus 45 you you are gonna leave that truck running, so you're wasting a lot of fuel right, wear and tear on the engine, it's very hard on a diesel engine to idle, so this way I brought it here or I'll let's just outside there right now, I'm gonna bring it in right away, this way I can turn it off for my 10 hours or however long I'm gonna be here instead of idling at the whole time and then we go deliver that load tomorrow, so thanks for joining me and hanging out with me today, we made it safe and sound, we're nice and warm, I got the heater going on the other side of the pickup there, we're gonna be all right, I don't like these cold winter days so I'm very thankful that we have a nice warm spot to bring all blue, all blue is you know our bread and butter, so we got a treat or good and if at all possible always bring her home for night and put it in the shop here so that it doesn't have to sit out in the cold, that's why we have this shop for specifically days like this, thanks for watching everybody, don't forget to hit that like button and subscribe, there'll be a new video tomorrow, come and hang out with me as we deliver that freight, it was a big temperature change from where we picked that freight up to here, it's crazy, it's only 500 miles but total different total different atmosphere, literally, fun times, gotta love it