That concludes our questions. The next item of business is debate on motion 5172 in the name of murder Fraser in Scotland's economy. I would invite all members who wish to speak in the debate to press their request to speak buttons now, and I call on murder Fraser to speak to and move the motion. Thank you, Presiding Officer. This afternoon, the Scottish Conservatives will use our debating time to highlight our concerns about the Scottish economy, and in particular, the growing divergence between Scotland's economic performance and that of the rest of the United Kingdom, the sturgeon slowdown. We want to examine the reasons behind that, press the Scottish Government for action and propose our own solutions for improving Scotland's economic performance. Above all, we will ask the Scottish Government to drop its high tax agenda and its ruinous plans for a second independence referendum. Last year, we were in the run-up to a referendum on EU membership. Ahead of that vote, there were many warnings from economic forecasters as to the negative impact on the UK economy of a vote to leave the EU. I was part of the remain campaign, and I shared many of the concerns that were being expressed on the impact a vote to leave the EU would have. As it happens, as we know, the UK economy has defined those predictions. It has been growing strongly since last summer, much more strongly than was previously forecast. Yes, of course. That is one of the model phrases that I would recognise. Those forecasts were based upon the UK leaving the EU. It has not actually left the EU yet. The member is totally wrong. The forecasts were for the economy at the point where we currently stand after a vote to leave. The forecast said, including the IMF incidentally, that the UK economy would lag. I do not know if the member was paying attention. Just yesterday, the IMF revised upwards is growth projection by the UK economy by 0.5 per cent. That is the biggest upward change that the IMF has ever made in its history. The British economy is growing and the member needs to pay more attention. The unemployment rate has continued to fall. The employment rate across the UK is now 74.6 per cent. The highest rate of people in work since records began in 1971, in a second. That is a story of economic success, Presiding Officer. I will give way to the cabinet secretary. The growth rates projected for the UK economy. Is he able to explain why it is the fact that the unemployment rates between Scotland and the UK diverged with unemployment being lower in Scotland? Can he explain the statement that he made? Previously, when he said, the SNP Government cannot have a responsibility for this failure as the gap between the UK and Scotland's unemployment rate continues to grow, it does. It has higher unemployment than we have. You would really think that the cabinet secretary for the economy would understand the issues. The reason the unemployment rate in the United Kingdom has been falling, according to the Fraser of Allander Institute, is because people are coming out of the jobs market altogether. There has been a rise in economic activity. The cabinet secretary for the economy does not understand that. He does not understand his own figures. He should not be in his job. There is much to celebrate in the growth of the UK economy. High growth rates, record levels of employment, falling unemployment and solid levels of business confidence. However, there is just one fly in the ointment. This good news stops at the border. For the situation in Scotland, it is markedly different from that elsewhere in the United Kingdom. It is only in Scotland unique across the United Kingdom that we are seeing this economic underperformance. In Scotland over the past year, our economy has been flatlining, not growing at all over the 12 months to quarter four 2016, as opposed to growth of nearly 2 per cent across the UK. In the fourth quarter of 2016, the most recent one for which we have figures, the output of the Scottish economy contracted by 0.2 per cent. Across the UK, as a whole, growth was 0.7 per cent. Another quarter of contraction and we are officially in recession. The sturgeon slowdown will have become the sturgeon slump. Those headline figures mask a more serious problem in that the active economy, defined as a measure that strips out public sector activity and focuses on private sector non-financial services contracted by 0.6 per cent over the last year, compared with growth of 3.6 per cent across the UK. On that measure, Scotland's active economy over the past four years grew at just 2 per cent against 13 per cent growth across the UK. We have grown at one-sixth of the UK average. The figures elsewhere are a little better. Scottish workers have had the lowest rise in gross annual pay in the UK in any region, and Scottish business confidence is significantly lower than in the UK as a whole, according to the Federation of Small Businesses. Let's look at the unemployment figures that the cabinet secretary was talking about, because what is clear is that unemployment in Scotland did fall in the most recent figures. However, what Fraser Valander says is that this is driven by the rise in economic activity. It's not about jobs being created, it's about people taking themselves out of the economy altogether. The employment rate in Scotland is lower than the UK average, and Scotland lags behind every single other region of the UK on job creation rates. I don't know why the minister is shaking his head. These are the facts. He has to start taking responsibility for the actions of his Government. The picture that we have is absolutely clear. Although the economy of the UK as a whole grows strongly, in Scotland we have a specific Scotland-only problem. Our economy is not growing, we are not creating more jobs and wages are not rising. How do we explain the divergence between the UK and the Scottish economies? We had our answer from the finance secretary two weeks ago. I noticed that he is not in the chamber this afternoon. Perhaps he is still on holiday. Perhaps he is being hidden away this afternoon. That is not surprising. His response was a laughable one, almost as laughable as the concept that Sir Jamie McGregor has just joined the SNP. His response was ridiculed in all quarters, for he tried to blame Scotland's relative underperformance on Brexit. As Professor Graham Roy of the Fraser of Allander Institute put it, much more diplomatically than many others did, and I quote, with any Brexit uncertainty affecting the UK as well, it is hard to argue that Scotland's relatively weaker performance can be explained by the outcome of the EU referendum. As I have said, that is putting it diplomatically, others put it in much more colourful terms, for it is simply ludicrous to blame Scotland's relative economic performance on a factor that affects the whole of the United Kingdom. Why is it that every part of the UK is doing well, just not Scotland? No, it must be a specific Scotland-only issue. We are very happy to have a serious conversation with the Scottish Government about what the factors applying to Scotland alone might be. In the absence of any more credible explanation than blaming Brexit, which is the go-to excuse from the Scottish Government when anything goes wrong, let me propose two possible causes. The first is the question of tax. We know that the Scottish Government has extensive tax powers, and the recent budget passed by the SNP with the support of the Greens means that one in seven income taxpayers in Scotland will pay more tax than if they stayed elsewhere in the United Kingdom, up to £400 a year more. On top of that, we have council tax rises, not at the moment, seeing families paying more than £500 a year extra in some cases, and we already have the increased tax on business with a large business supplement, being double the rate that applies south of the border. Let's remember that this large business supplement, this misnamed large business supplement, applies to many comparatively modest retail premises that happen to suffer from high rateable values because of their location. On top of that, we have the lands and buildings transaction tax, set at the upper end of the market at higher rates than elsewhere in the United Kingdom. It is no wonder that the draft budget 2017-18 had to revise downwards by some £750 million to take from residential LBTT between 2017-18 and 2020-21. Indeed, the Scottish Property Federation pointed out at the end of last month that the targets for LBTT take for the current year were £100 million short of target with just one month to go in the tax year. It is no surprise, because if you set the tax rates to high, you depress economic activity and you end up with less tax revenue as a result. Yes, I have time. Would you agree that, for ordinary families, what is going to affect their income and the economy is the fact that the decrease in tax credits given to families with children of three or more is going to take about £7,000 out of their annual income, and that is a more serious impact on ordinary families in Scotland? That is an astonishing intervention from someone in the Scottish National Party benches, who wants to take us down the route of independence that will leave a £15 billion black hole in the public finances of Scotland. If you think welfare cuts are an issue, why on earth do you support a policy that is going to see austerity max imposed on the people of Scotland, which is what you want? Let me go back to the issue of business rates. It is no wonder that they are causing so much concern. The recent rates-to-evaluation saw businesses throughout Scotland reacting with horror to huge increases in their valuations. After pressure from ourselves and others, the finance secretary agreed to cap the increases for the hospitality sector at 12.5 per cent for the coming year. He did not tell us—perhaps he did not realise that, in fact, there was not a cap at 12.5 per cent. It was a cap at 14.7 per cent, because he had forgotten about the impact of inflation. Just this afternoon, I have heard from Fife Council that, because the Scottish Government laid its regulations to implement the cap so late, the rates demands that they are issuing now to businesses do not take the cap into account. They will be asked to pay the higher figure. Will the cabinet secretary have a specific problem for Fife or is it occurring right across Scotland? If so, he needs to get it sorted. We have also heard elsewhere that the cap may not be automatically applied, but it will be up to businesses to apply for it themselves. In the meantime, we will be expected to pay the higher sums. It is simply a shambles and sums up the Government's lack of understanding of the business community. This is a Government that has done nothing for all those other businesses, not protected by its cap. Whether it is children's nurseries, renewable energy projects or garden centres, there are a whole host of other businesses that contribute to our economy and provide jobs. They are all seeing a dramatic increase in their rates bills. Over the recess, I met two hoteliers in Persia who told me that unless real action was taken on their rates bill in the longer term, it would no longer be viable for them to do business beyond next year. That is the impact that this Government's policies are having on the Scottish economy and it is time that it is thought again. There is a second factor doing damage to the Scottish economy and it is the on-going uncertainty caused by the Government's obsession with the second independence referendum. A whole host of business figures from the Royal Institute of Charters of Air to the Institute of Directors in Scotland have warned of the impact that this uncertainty will have on their ability to do business and the ability to attract investment. A corporate study survey by the law firm Burness Paul found that 88 per cent of firms thought that the prospect of second independence referendum was creating uncertainty for Scotland. 50 per cent stated that their company would not feel comfortable undertaking investment activity until the outcome of further another referendum was known and 83 per cent said that it was vital for Scotland to remain part of the United Kingdom. The evidence is absolutely clear from business. The uncertainty caused by the prospect of a second independence referendum is damaging Scottish economic recovery. I have set out what we believe are the problems with the SNP's approach. What is the Scottish Government going to do about it? Let me give some practical suggestions of what it might do to improve things. Firstly, the Scottish Government has very extensive powers on taxation. It should be using those to create a competitive tax environment in terms of business rates and personal taxation, including LBTT. Secondly, we need constitutional stability. We need to rule out a second independence referendum, which the people of Scotland simply do not want. Thirdly, there needs to be a renewed focus on improving productivity. The Scottish Government should be working with the UK Government, helping to develop an industrial strategy that will focus on innovation and promoting research and development. Fourthly, there needs to be a renewed focus on exporting, with the role of Scottish development international enhanced, particularly in non-EU countries. Fifthly, we need to do more to see our cities as drivers for economic growth. The UK Government's initiative for city deals is now being rolled out to every city in Scotland. That is our welcome initiative, but it needs to be supplemented by Scottish Government action. Finally, we should empower local government to assist growth. I commend to the chamber the ideas that we have to do in our local government manifesto launched this morning. Above all, the Scottish Government needs to think again on its damaging policies for Scotland. It needs to think again on tax, and it needs to think again on a second independence referendum. If it does not do those things, we will continue to see jobs disappear, our economy will continue to suffer and the sturgeon slowdown will become a sturgeon slump. I have pleasure in moving the motion in my name. Before setting out some of the actions of the Scottish Government to strengthen and grow Scotland's economy, I would like to reflect that it is clear from Corporal Fraser's speech that the Tories are setting out to ignore the fundamentals of Scotland's economy, which are strong. For the record, Scotland's GDP per head is 99.9 per cent of the UK average. Scotland has achieved strong productivity growth since 2007. Productivity per worker has grown 9.4 per cent in Scotland, in comparison with 0.1 per cent for the UK as a whole. Scotland has a strong and resilient labour market, and I will repeat that for Mr Fraser. The latest figures show unemployment in Scotland at 4.5 per cent is lower than the 4.7 per cent in the UK as a whole. Since 2008, employment in Scotland has risen by 45,000 per cent. Scotland has a very supportive ecosystem for new businesses. Since 2007, the number of registered businesses in Scotland has grown by 15 per cent to an all-time record level. Indeed, a survey for export market cited Edinburgh as the best city in which to start a business as part of a study of 43 UK cities. The value of Scottish international exports has increased by 41 per cent since 2007, from £20.4 billion to £28.7 billion by 2015. Scotland's business expenditure on R&D, not as high as I would like, rose by more than 40 per cent in real terms between 2007 and 2015 to reach £871 million. I will give way to Mr Fraser. Mr Fraser. I am very grateful to the minister for giving way. I do not know if he is familiar with the Fraser of Allander institute, but I think that he needs to read his analysis of what is happening in the Scottish economy. Rather, the fall in unemployment is down to a rise in economic activity. It is not because jobs are being created if people are leaving the labour market and the increase in productivity, according to Fraser of Allander, is down to less hours being worked, not an increase in output per hour. Why doesn't the minister actually study the figures rather than making bland assertions? Professional economists for 19 years before he was elected to the Parliament, yes, I do know Fraser of Allander institute very well. I have worked with the Fraser of Allander institute. I would point out to Mr Fraser that, since 2008, at the peak of economic activity, prior to the recession, the UK-wide recession, Scotland's employment has risen by 45,000. Just to get that in perspective, the Scottish economy has remained resilient in 2016 despite the significant challenges that continue to face the oil and gas sector and the heightened uncertainty that has been created by the UK's decision to leave the EU. Since the Brexit vote, consumer confidence in Scotland has, indeed, fallen and has lowered in the UK as a whole. We can see, even if the Tories cannot, that Captain Theresa May and First Officer Johnson seem intent on steering a collision course for the SS Brexitania rather than to steer it away from the economic icebergs. We can see the problems that are coming. The Tories seem to be ignoring it. However, only this week, Begbeys trainer, insolvency practitioners—and he might want to listen to this point, Mr Fraser—gave us welcome news that the number of Scottish businesses facing serious financial hardship is falling, bucking the upward trend for the UK as a whole. They found that firms in Scotland saw a 28 per cent reduction in the most serious signs of business distress during the first quarter of 2017, compared with a 7 per cent increase across the UK. Ken Patullo, who leads Begbeys trainer in Scotland, said, and I quote here, "...over all the supply chain in the UK is facing challenges from a weak pound in rising inflation, in particular in fuel and food costs." And in case the Tories have missed it, I highly went on to state, and I quote again, "...there is no doubt that these Brexit effects will keep impacting parts of the Scottish economy too." However, despite headwinds, Scotland's economy still grew 0.4 per cent in 2016, and Scotland's labour market has continued to show very welcome resilience. Latest data to February 2017 shows that our unemployment, as I said earlier, not only outperforms the UK average but also outperforms on both female and young employment rates. The not 0.2 per cent contraction in the Scottish economy in the final quarter of 2016 stems largely from the continued slowdown in the oil and gas sector, and the impact that this is having on the wider supply chain. In that context, I welcome Begbeys trainer's assessment and I quote here again, "...it would appear that we have seen the peak of distress in that sector." Clearly, we need to remain vigilant, given that the oil and gas sector is still fragile, acknowledge that. However, if the peak has indeed passed, that would be great news for the oil and gas workforce and the sector, which has a long-term future in Scotland. The Scottish Government remains committed to supporting the oil and gas sector through measures such as energy jobs task force, our £12 million transition training fund and new £5 million decommissioning challenge fund. TTF in particular has assisted more than 1,800 individuals affected by redundancy to date, and up to a further 755 are being provided with new employment opportunities due to larger-scale procurement rounds. Furthermore, the Partnership for Action and Continuing Employment has in the year to 31 March supported 15,167 employees and 299 employers across the economy, with 2016 PACE client experience survey published last October, suggesting that some 71 per cent of those who have assisted had found new employment. That is an excellent service, I would argue. That is only provided in Scotland to the best of my knowledge. Mr Fraser, I am limited for time if I may have to press on briefly. The contraction last year was a blip. Why is it that under 10 years of SNP, average annual growth in Scotland has been a mere 0.7 per cent, a third of our long-term growth rate? Can you explain why that is the case? I think that as we will come on to discuss that the UK Government also has a role in the management of the economy, which is something that has been made already to Mr Fraser. It may not like it, but those powers are still reserved. We both have to accept both the Scottish Government and the UK Government that we would like to see improvement in economic performance in Scotland, but I have already highlighted a number of examples where Scotland is performing extremely well in comparison with the UK. Mr Fraser mentioned renewables. Last week's Beringa studies demonstrated that at least one gigawatts of new-on-shore wind can be commissioned without subsidy, but the UK Government, because of the 2015 manifesto, continued to deny a route to market for that technology, alongside 812 megawatts of island wind, 1072 megawatts of pumped hydro capacity and 150 megawatts of tidal projects, all held up because of a lack of support from the UK Government, potentially billions of capital investment for Scotland and the wider UK supply chain. The Scottish Government is also investing in the wider economy to boost growth and create jobs over the longer term, including investing in our future through our £6 billion infrastructure plan and the £500 million Scottish growth scheme. Hundreds of millions of pounds are being invested in transport, housing and energy efficiency, and £400 million of investment in digital connectivity to mitigate failings in another area that is reserved to Westminster. We are committed to reducing the burden of air passenger duty to improve Scotland's connectivity and we plan to invest more than £1 billion in our universities in 2017-18, and we are supporting collaborations between universities, businesses and others through our innovation centres, but it is vital that we retain access to Horizon 2020 and other key sources of funding. We have established a border trade and are creating permanent trade representations in Berlin to add to our innovation investment hubs in Dublin and Brussels. The new innovation investment hub in London was opened officially by the First Minister yesterday and will provide Scottish companies with a place to meet clients and customers, target new markets and secure investment. We are increasing the number of modern apprenticeship opportunities to 30,000 per year by 2020. Those investments are economy are crucial in the short term to the sport Scotland's economy during these uncertain times as the UK embarks on a hard Brexit, but also as investment in the long-term productivity of our economy. We are using our tax powers to support growth in the economy on business rates. Our actions demonstrate a continuing commitment to competitive business rates environment and we have reduced the overall rates burden by around £155 million and ensured more than 50 per cent of all properties paying no rates this year, with over 70 per cent paying the same or less than last year, 8,000 business properties no longer paying the large business supplement and the overall core business rate poundage being cut by 3.7 per cent to 46.6 per cent. We have provided specific rates release schemes for office accommodation in North East Scotland for renewable projects and the hospitality sector Scotland-wide. All measures that the Tories voted against in the recent budget vote. The economic outlook for Scotland remains positive, Presiding Officer. However, the main risk-facing Scotland's economy continues to be the prospect of a hard Brexit. Brexit presents a huge threat to jobs, to trade, to living standards and investment in Scotland. Brexit will take Scotland out of the largest single market in the world and threatens over £12 billion of exports from our country. I move the amendment in the name of the cabinet secretary. Thank you very much. I added a little extra time on for interventions, but it is now very tight. I call Jackie Baillie to speak to and move amendment 5172.1, Ms Baillie. Seven minutes please. I welcome any opportunity to debate the economy, although I have to confess that the debate is wholly overshadowed by events elsewhere. Before I turn to the Scottish economy, let me make an observation about what businesses tell us that they value. This was confirmed just this morning on Good Morning Scotland by David Watt of the Institute of Directors. Businesses value certainty. It is fair to say that this is the last thing that the UK and Scottish Governments have given them. An independence referendum in 2014, with all the uncertainty that that meant for the economy, a general election in 2015, a Scottish Parliament election in 2016, an EU referendum a month later, now another general election and the threat of indyref too. Whilst Barbara from Bristol may have summed up the nation's view, I think that it is safe to say that the stable, certain environment for business is truly non-existent. The only thing that is constant is change and murder-phrases interventions. I am very grateful to do my favourite Labour MSP for giving. I think that is your intervention finish. I am afraid that you must sit down, Mr Fraser.  It actually reminds me that the last time the Tories took us to the polls, it was to sort out an internal party problem over Europe. And look where that got the country. Out of Europe, the entirely fictitious promise of more money for the NHS and David Cameron out of office. Now, the new Prime Minister looks intent on using a general election to silence her internal critics. I can but live in hope that she will suffer a similar fate to her predecessor. But it was, of course—no, no, no, hold on—it was, of course, Theresa May herself that long held that a general election during the Brexit negotiations would be damaging to businesses and households. Well, what a complete U-turn on her own position, because it's clear now that she simply doesn't care about the damage that would result. Whilst I, like most politicians, quite enjoy elections, the reality is that the Scottish economy, which is already in a precarious state, might suffer further. The uncertainty of an election clearly does not help. And I will relish the debate, but I can't help but think as someone once said, now is not the time. I believe—no, I believe our collective focus—it is uncomfortable hearing this, I accept that, but you should listen. But I do believe our collective focus, whichever Parliament you are in or whichever party you belong to, should be on growing the economy. Because whatever set of figures the SNP tried to spin, we don't start from a strong base. The economy is not just stagnating, it is in decline. The last quarter's GDP figures show a contraction in the economy, negative growth of minus 0.2 per cent, and that, at the same time, as the UK economy grew by four times as much. That trend, that difference between Scotland and the UK, is also played out over the full year. The key areas that are contracted include construction and production. I would urge the Scottish Government to look particularly at those areas when considering investment, to bring forward some of the capital infrastructure and housing projects that will make a difference in those sectors. Because there is no doubt that the Scottish economy is underperforming against the rest of the UK across a number of measures. Growth is down and has been revised downward. Employment levels are decreasing. There are 17,000 fewer people in employment for this quarter than a year ago. There is greater underemployment in the workforce and worklessness is increasing, so that economic inactivity levels now stand at 60,000 more than they were in the last year. The Scottish Government hasn't taken the time to understand what lies behind this increase, which is ultimately bad for our economy. I know that the minister is shaking his head, but I have to say that I found his speech entirely complacent about the needs of the Scottish economy. Just yesterday, the Scottish retail... No, I think that we have heard enough. Just yesterday, the Scottish retail consortium reported that retail sales were down. You might listen to this. Retail sales were down for the last month. Although food sales appear to have gone up, that is largely as a result of price inflation. That should concern us all. Retail matters to the Scottish economy. Encouraging productivity and growth in this sector is important, and it is really time that the Scottish Government invested in a dedicated retail strategy. The truth is that Scotland lost out on billions because of the SNP's mismanagement of our economy. Failure to return to pre-recession levels of growth has cost the economy in Scotland £6.5 billion since 2011. With our new powers over taxation, we absolutely need to create jobs, to increase revenues, to ensure that we have enough to invest in public services. I do not like people whistling. Somebody was whistling now, so you are not in a class, so I do not need to ask you to stand up, but we will not have that. Thank you, Presiding Officer. I have to say that you would think that after a decade of the SNP being in charge, we would have a Government focused on boosting growth by investing in the economy and creating jobs. Instead, what we see are breathtaking cuts of some 40 per cent to bodies like Scottish Enterprise, the very agency charged with growing the economy. Quite simply, the SNP Government is not serious when it comes to dealing with the economy, either that or they really do not know what they are doing, and I am not entirely sure which is worse. Just look at the economic strategy. There is much in it that we support, but the ambition and warm words are simply not matched by action.  Then we have the SNP's plans for a second independence referendum, no longer once in a generation, but once every few years. That would be economic vandalism on a truly breathtaking scale. Just the prospect of indiref 2 will cause damage to the economy, never mind independence itself. The SNP cannot even tell us that most basic of questions. What currency will we be using? How do we fill the £15 billion black hole in our accounts each year? There is no greater ambition, Presiding Officer, than to grow the economy, but that ambition must be matched by action. Investment in growth, investment in skills, investment in our businesses and certainty to help them to invest in the future. We stand ready to work with the Government, but it really must pull its head out of the sand and focus on the economy, not on another independence referendum. Please move your amendment. I move the amendment in my name. Thank you. I call Patrick Harvie, Mr Harvie, to speak to and move amendment 5172.4. Thank you, Presiding Officer. I welcome the debate on the economy, and I am glad that it has not wholly descended into a debate on independence and Brexit alone. It so often happens, although I have to say that, when the opening Conservative speaker called for a period of constitutional stability, I almost choked on my watermelon. I really did. The Green amendment, which I move now, in case I forget to do it later, focuses on two main themes. The failure to invest in a transition away from the fossil fuel age and towards long-lasting high-quality and sustainable economic activity for the future, but also the inequality that persists in our economy. Narometrics such as growth alone are not enough. Even productivity alone are not enough to tell us about the quality of economic activity as opposed to its quantity. There is indeed a strong economy for some the top 10 per cent of the Scottish population have more than doubled the income gap between themselves and the bottom 40 per cent in just one year. In just one year that gap has more than doubled. That is in keeping with the rest of the UK. The richest 10 per cent of UK households hold 45 per cent of all wealth. The poorest half of the population, by contrast, owned just 8.7 per cent. Yes, the proportion of working-age adults in employment is at a high, but the number of people in working poverty in a family in working poverty is 55 per cent, also a record high. The Scottish Government's statistics show that 20 per cent of people in Scotland were living in relative poverty in 2015-16. For those who enjoy a position of wealth and privilege, you can indeed identify a recovery, a strong economy. That claim can be made and they will enjoy the fruits of that. Far more people are experiencing a labour market and an economy characterised by low wages, bogus self-employment and precarious employment through the so-called gig economy. That is the shiny new name, of course, that we have for just old-fashioned casualisation, but this time with apps. I do not think that we should be excited about that. We should be concerned about the people who are being exploited through it. The Tory Government is pursuing policies that will actively make poverty and inequality worse. Much has been said about the impact from the cuts to tax credits and universal credits. The idea that, in response to Gillian Martin, that model Fraser seems unable to recognise that taking thousands of pounds from a low-earning or average-earning household is somehow to be ignored while taking a few hundred pounds from people like us on high incomes is so much more devastating in the economy. I simply find that laughable. All of that highlights that inequality is the context in which we need to read what the numbers such as narrow economic measures like productivity and GDP tell us about the economy. Another factor that is ignored by those narrow economic metrics is sustainability. Brexit has, of course, endangered our economy. That much is certain, and the internal party squabbles of the Conservatives look set to trigger an opportunistic snap election and a power grab to undermine both parliaments. However, when Murdo Fraser asks the question why the divergence between Scotland and the rest of the UK cites tax policy, even though his beloved Fraser of Allander Institute has pretty much blown out of the water the claim that Scotland is the highest tax part of the UK, and he also suggests that it's because of the debate on independence. However, the divergent performance that he points to starts after the 2014 referendum, and before, in fact, in the run-up to his party's reckless decision to pursue hard Brexit, and so I don't think that that referendum can be the issue. He mentions the Fraser of Allander report on several occasions. That analysis concludes by saying that the independence referendum does not appear to have been a major driver of volatility. We find that global events, such as the Eurozone debt crisis, tended to have a much more significant impact. And later on, just one moment, later on, in that same analysis, it cites the downturn in the oil and gas sector as part of the explanation. I find it astonishing that Murdo Fraser wants to look at tax policy or the constitutional debate as though the uncertainty is all coming from Scotland, not the UK, and ignoring the fundamental structure of the Scottish economy. I welcome him if he's now got some nice new fruit and vegetable-based insults for us. That would be great fun. He certainly will not, Mr Fraser. Thank you. I'm grateful to the member for giving me. Does he accept the Fraser of Allander Institute analysis that he's just quoted refers to the impact on financial markets, in other words, on stock prices, not on the impact of the broader economy of the constitutional debate? It seems to me that, from our reading of the Fraser of Allander's publications and from what we know about the economy, it is bizarre to dismiss and ignore and not even refer to the over-reliance on the fossil fuel industry, which is central to Scotland's position. Burning just the fossil fuels that we have in known reserves, we know will tip the climate system into disarray. That resource will never be successfully turned into profit or economic activity. We cannot allow the dependence of people's livelihoods to depend on that volatile global price and that unburnable resource. That much is certain. I would also quote Douglas Fraser from the BBC, who said, down in the doll drums with Scotland was Russia. Those over dependent on oil revenues as well as those afflicted by war dominate the list of those with contracting economies. I simply do not think that we can dismiss the reality of this issue and it really should focus our minds on the urgent need to invest in a sustainable alternative. I do not have time to go through the other amendments, Deputy Presiding Officer. We will be voting against all of them for different reasons and my colleague Andy Wightman will explain that in summing up. I move the amendment in my name. Thank you very much. I call on Mike Rumbles to speak to and move amendment 5172.2. Mr Rumbles, you also have seven minutes please. Thank you Deputy Presiding Officer. The Scottish economy is not in a good place and it is not as though the Scottish Government has not been warned about the fragility of our economy, the problems of business confidence and the problems companies face over skilled shortages. The Liberal Democrats have argued that what is needed from the Scottish Government is transformational change in our education and skills base to build a high wage, high skilled economy. We argued this most recently with the Government ministers during this year's budget process, but unfortunately the finance minister had already decided that his budget beforehand. The evidence for this is the almost magical appearance of extra money, which, while appeasing the Greens, did not come anywhere close to providing the funds necessary for the transformational change that we believe is needed. We all know, don't we, that business doesn't like uncertainty. The Conservative motion argues that the Scottish Government should set aside its campaign for another independence referendum and focus on the economy instead. Now, the Liberal Democrats couldn't agree more with this view. The Scottish Government's actions on this divisive call for another referendum do indeed undermine business confidence in Scotland. However, looking at the Conservative motion, it is indeed the kettle calling the pot black. There are two main reasons for the lack of business confidence in Scotland. Yes, it is the worry, the real concern, over the future direction of our country caused by the constant campaigning rather than the governing of the SNP administration. But it is compounded by the actions of the previous and current Conservative Prime Ministers over Brexit. The threat of a second independence referendum coupled with Brexit is sending a chill through the Scottish economy. The Fraser, just a moment, the Fraser of Allander Institute recently reported and I quote, the unprecedented political and economic uncertainty generated by Brexit and in the ref, too, is likely to act as a further headwind for many businesses and potential investors. And since it is the Fraser of Allander Institute, Mr Fraser's choice, quotations, I'll give way to him. Thank you, Mr Fraser. Grateful to member for giving way. If indeed it is the case that Brexit is causing a fall in business confidence, why are we not seeing that reflected across the whole United Kingdom but only in Scotland? Because there is a gap of 30 points in business confidence between Scotland and the rest of the UK. Surely that's the case. Just before you reply, can I ask members, not if two members are standing at the same time? Mr Rumbles, will you reply now, please? Yes, I do accept that there is a difference between the two, but just imagine how the growth could be in the south of England, in England south of the border if we didn't have that threat. You know, absolutely. Surveys, surveys, well listen, surveys such as the Federation of Small Businesses, again often quoted by the Conservatives, index 2, indicate that business confidence is low. Scottish firms expecting the economic outlook to improve are outstripped by those who expect the situation to deteriorate. Now, two weeks ago, we saw the Scottish Chambers of Commerce warn that companies are facing a lack of digital skills. Of the Scottish businesses that took part in its national business server, eight out of 10 reported some form of shortage of digital skills. Companies and organisations in almost every sector and of the economy are struggling to find the skills they need. The Liberal Democrats are the only party in this Parliament who will work to change the direction of the whole of the United Kingdom and work towards securing Scotland's economic future by avoiding a hard Brexit and keeping Scotland in both the United Kingdom and the European Union single markets. I'm sure that if Mr Rumbles is committed to changing the direction of the UK, he'll do what his party leadership has not done at UK level and rule out any form of co-operation with the Conservatives after the snap election. Mr Rumbles. What a red herring that is, Mr Harvey. We're not interested in co-oritions, quite frankly, and I'm sure that the Greens aren't either because I don't believe the Greens will win one member of the Scottish Parliament member of Parliament in Scotland. Never mind, let's get back to reality. I want to look at the economic facts facing Scotland. During the Easter recess, we learned that in the final quarter of 2016, as has all been already mentioned, Scottish GDP shrank by 0.2 per cent while the UK economy, as a whole, grew by 0.7 per cent. There is no indication and I didn't hear it on the front bench today either that any minister has given much thought to the possibility of a recession and how to avoid it. No minister has publicly acknowledged the risk of a Scottish recession, not even in this debate. Now, with a lag in publishing statistics, we could already be in a recession. We just won't know that until July. What action have Scottish ministers taken to ward off the threat of recession? Instead of playing the blame game, and I've heard that already in this debate, the Scottish Government should be setting out clear and credible plans to turn the situation around. The Liberal Democrats, in our case, will not give up on our call for a transformational investment in education and skills training because that's where we think the key to this is to get Scotland's economy fit for the future. I want to turn to the Conservatives again here. I have to say that it takes some goal for them to bring forward this motion today, the day after they go to the country to try and consolidate their hard Brexit. And I know it's difficult. It's difficult for me to listen to most of the Conservatives in this chamber because most of the Conservatives in this chamber don't actually believe in a hard Brexit. They didn't argue that now, but because the leader says jump, they jump. So a hard Brexit but it's a hard Brexit that will do immense damage to the economy of the whole of the United Kingdom and I can't think of a worse self-inflicted wound. There's no getting around it. Barriers, and I thought the Conservatives would appreciate this, barriers are bad for business. People and companies are already paying the price of Theresa May's approach. Ruth Davidson knows the cost of that too. When we have the reckless hard Brexit of the Conservatives, the last thing we need is the divisive approach of the nationalists. But the electorate now has the chance to change the direction of our country. A chance to turn back the tide of division. A chance to give our country a brighter and better future. The Liberal Democrats are open, tolerant and united while the Tories and the nationalists offer propositions that would harm our economy. We stand with a majority opinion in this country. We stand proud for a united kingdom within the European Union. I move the amendment in my name. Thank you very much, Mr Rumbles. We now move to the open debate. A vet speeches with tight six minutes. I call Joan McAlpine to be followed by Liam Kerr. Ms McAlpine, please. Thank you very much, Presiding Officer. The Tories have an absolute brass neck in bringing this topic to Parliament today. Before the European referendum, the UK Tory Government said Brexit would, quote, make us permanently poorer. Yesterday, the Prime Minister announced a general election, the sole purpose of which is to ensure the delivery of the hardest Brexit possible, one that will make us permanently poorer, and which the Fraser of Allander Institute research not quoted by the Tory motion today has said will result in the value of the wage in people's pockets in Scotland falling by £2,000 in real terms and which will cost Scotland at least 80,000 jobs. That is the real insecurity that Scotland faces, Presiding Officer, and that warning does not just come from the Fraser of Allander. In a piece of work published this week, the World Economic Forum gives a devastating analysis of the impact of Brexit on the UK economy as a whole. According to their calculations, based on the direct costs, such as job losses from the financial sector, as well as inflation eroding income and savings because of a drop in the value of the pound, Brexit will cost Britain £140 billion, or 7.5 per cent, of GDP. That, they say, is the equivalent of £300 million a week over eight years. £300 million a week, Presiding Officer, a familiar figure in the context of the Brexit debate. The World Economic Forum has more to say about the British economy under the stewardship of the Tories. They are unimpressed by the bragging about recovery at a UK level. They explain it this way, in a quote, after an eight-year recovery built on rising asset prices and debt, but stagnant wages, the poor and the old will see their incomes and savings dwindle. The canary in the coal mine is the pound sterling, which has already dropped from over £1.50 to £1.25 against the US dollar. For an island that imports half its goods and food, that means higher inflation. High street retailers are already feeling the pinch, except even smaller portions, expect even smaller portions, less fruit and vegetables on the shelves. Brexit uncertainty, they say, could also scare off some investment and push jobs away. In fact, some firms are already relocating elsewhere. The minister has already outlined at Lend the substantial work being done by the Scottish Government to support the Scottish economy with unemployment now lower than the UK is a whole and the second lowest youth unemployment in the whole of the European Union, which is something that we really should repeat more often. They are achievements, Presiding Officer, that come despite the policy of the Tory Government in London, which has far more influence on Scotland's economic fortunes than anything that happens here, I am afraid. The fact is that 70 per cent of Scotland's taxes are still set and controlled by Westminster. Monetary policy lies down in London as does fiscal policy. So does energy policy, something alluded to by the minister, a critical factor in the Scottish economy? That is controlled entirely by Westminster. What an absolute pig's ear they have made of it, Presiding Officer. We know that some recent challenges faced by the Scottish economy result from a fault in the all price, something that was not predicted by anyone, including the UK Government. During the independence referendum, the UK Government, David Cameron, in fact, said that the North Sea was best left on the broad shoulders of the UK, but the UK Government has squandered that national resource. Over the last five decades, North Sea production has generated over £330 billion in tax revenue, and all that went straight to the UK Treasury when it could have been invested in Scotland's infrastructure and put beside for the future. In Norway, a small independent country, oil revenues have been invested wisely, and there is now a sovereign wealth fund of $900 billion. What an indictment, Presiding Officer, on the failure of successive UK Governments to safeguard Scotland's most precious resource. However, the mismanagement of energy is not confined to oil, Presiding Officer. The UK Government under the Tories has, since 2015, sought to sabotage our renewables industry and what can only be described as a series of spiteful measures that undermine the Scottish economy. Scotland's ability to attract investment in the renewables sector is being hampered by UK Government policy. The UK position in the EY renewable energy country attractiveness index fell to the 14th place in October 2016 due to, "...uncertainty caused by Brexit, the closure of DECC and the approval of the Hinkley Point C all dealing a sizeable blow to the UK renewable sector. In February 2016, the Energy and Climate Change Committee reported that investor confidence had been dented since the UK parliamentary election in May 2015, and they identified six different factors that have confined to damage investor confidence, including sudden and numerous policy announcements that have marred the UK's reputation for stable and predictable policy development. The UK Government has been criticised by a wide range of experts and stakeholders in this area, for example, Andrew Watkin, head of energy and marine team at the property consultant Carter Jonas, stated that the plans will, quote, "...kill off the solar and offshore wind industry in the UK from 2016 forward." The figures are stark, Presiding Officer. They show that investment in wind, solar, biomass and waste to energy projects could decline by 95 per cent between 2017 and 2020. And these are areas that no-one needs to be focused on. Members, in the last 30 seconds... These are areas, Presiding Officer, that are particularly important to the Scottish economy. This is just one aspect of many aspects of the Scottish economy where the control lies entirely with the UK Government. They have made a mess of it, they have made a mess of it in the past and, because of Brexit, they look to make an even bigger mess of it in the future. Thank you very much. Thank you. I call Liam Kerr to be followed by George Adam. Mr Kerr, please. Thank you, Deputy Presiding Officer. There are things that keep me awake at night, ensuring that Scotland has signed the climate change agreement with one of the 50 states of the USA, ensuring that Scotland spends millions on an over-budget baby box scheme, which, according to research by Cantar, people neither want respect or even use. Spending days debating whether or not this Parliament should ask a question to which the answer is already known. Spending 31 hours debating Brexit, but only seven on education. These are things that concern me. On that point, a question only, please. When we're talking about things that keep you awake at night, what about the rape clause? How do you go on with that? Let's try and keep this relevant show away. We've been written to. Peter Chapman has given a very good reply to that to your colleague Gillian Martin. I suggest you go and ask her when there's more time. What does keep me awake at night is the Scottish National Party's stewardship of the Scottish economy, because, whilst the UK economy grows at 0.7 per cent, the fastest-growing economy in the Western world, whilst the UK job creation rate is 8.6 per cent, the Scottish economy has a job creation rate of 1.7 per cent, and a lower employment rate than the UK average. It has a lower GVA growth per head than in England's north-east, north-west, Yorkshire, the Humber, the south-east, the south-west and Wales. Scotland's active economy contracted by 0.6 per cent over the last year, compared with growth of 3.6 per cent for the UK. According to the Scottish Government's own figures, the Scottish economy grew 0 per cent over the last year, compared to 1.9 per cent for the UK. Then we've heard about the Federation of Small Business Statistics, which shows that the confidence of Scottish small businesses remains significantly below the UK average. However, my insomnia is a function of two things. Firstly, that the Government in this debate will, I confidently predict, totally and willfully fail to acknowledge any of the problems or indeed their agency in them. They will blame the Tories, Brexit, Westminster, perhaps a lack of powers, or if you're Joan McAlpine, all of the above. Secondly, there is manifestly, staggeringly and absolutely no plan to rescue the situation. This Government has the power to do something. They have the power to do something about it now. We might not agree on where the blame lies, the responsibility, nor would we necessarily agree on the solutions. But surely the very least a Government should be doing is presenting those solutions, presenting a road map to success. A road map that says, here we are, and using the following levers, here is the plan for how we are going to get out of it, and in five years' time, here's where we'll be. But instead, no thank you, we have a finance secretary who set his proposed air departure tax rate at a particular level because it felt like the right thing to do, who announced with much fanfare a capping of business rates for hospitality businesses at 12.5 per cent, but forgot to account for inflation, so it will be 14.7 per cent. Gers figures trumpeted three years ago as the basis for the economic case for separation, and now, when they start showing that Scotland's net beneficiary from the rest of the UK derided his nonsense, and a Government who preside over people's council tax going up, business rates going up, income tax going up, LBTT going up, and all, of course, requiring the complicity and support of the Greens, who have been revealed to be the SNP in all but name, but with added virtue signalling and less economic credibility. Specifically, a party whose leader admitted in March 2016 that he did not know how much extra revenue his party's preferred top rate of tax would raise, but would continue backing it, even if it didn't generate a penny more. Now, there are solutions, which Murdo Fraser suggested and others will no doubt articulate, but we need, above all, stability and certainty. Whatever our desired outcome, we can surely all agree that certainty does not come from a bipolar second referendum, where the outcome is, by definition, one of two polar opposites, or a prospective country in which the currency is not certain, the status of membership of the EU is not known, and the existence of a hard trading border at Berwick, losing a single market worth four times as much to Scotland as the EU is a distinct probability. Therefore, whatever our individual aspirations, it is incontrovertible that the threat of a second referendum is causing economic damage. Just this week, the serial entrepreneur Robert Kilgauer reported how he regularly comes across financial investors that no longer consider Scotland as a place to put their funds. I have no doubt that this Parliament is unconcerned with my nocturnal wellbeing. It must be concerned that this Government is spending vast amounts of time and money tinkering around the edges whilst the economy of Scotland labors. The lack of any form of concrete long-term plan to deal with the economic underperformance is concerning and must be addressed. I have set out the basis and the paradigm within which that plan might operate, but, look, the people of Scotland demand stability in our institutions, predictability in our policies and consistency in our decision making. So I say to the cabinet secretary, please, in your summing up, tell me the Scottish Government has got a better idea. Set out a comprehensive and coherent plan to turn the economy around without blaming everybody else. Set aside the campaign for a second referendum. Support the Conservative motion and let me get some sleep. Yes. On the matter of sleep, I think that your speech woke up a baby, Mr Kerr. I call George Adam to follow by Pauline McNeill. Mr Adam, please. Thank you, Presiding Officer. Scotland has one of the strongest economies in the world with advantages and resources that few nations can match. However, if you listen to the Conservative party, you would think otherwise. There are questions that keep Liam Kerr up at night, and I do not doubt that for a minute, because perhaps it is the guilt of the pain that him and his kind are inflicting in the people of Scotland. That is probably the reality of the situation. Presiding Officer, I have always been a glass-full kind of guy. It is my nature. I have always looked to the positives of life, regardless of the challenge. As my old dad used to say, who said that it was going to be easy, son? Because the important things in life seldom are easy. That is what the challenge is. However, it appears that this is lost in the Conservatives as they wallow in their own negativity. You will not hear a Tory MSP talk about building a better tomorrow. They are happy to wallow in their own mucky-sordid vision of the future. Presiding Officer, not for me that type of negativity, and constituencies like mine, the small business bonus scheme, has made differences in regenerating the east end of Paisley. Obviously, the Tories are not interested in regenerating towns like Paisley because it is under them that the problems have happened in the first place. However, 100 per cent occupancy in retail units, many of them are actually qualified for the small business bonus and this has saved businesses in Scotland over 1.2 million in rates alone. This year, the Scottish Government expanded this by removing the rates burden entirely for 100,000 business properties. Politics is about priorities, and the priorities of the Scottish Government has always been the people they serve. Although the Tories and Westminster cut taxes for those in the higher rate, the Scottish Government is forgoing the tax cut of £400 that equates to £760 a week and making it contribute to Scotland's social contract, which includes free education, further childcare, free school meals, no bedroom tax and free prescriptions. The abolition of tuition fees saves over £120,000 undergraduate students up to £27,000 compared with the cost of studying in England. The Scottish Government increases in free childcare to £600 and saves families £2,500 per year per child per year. A total when the expansion comes up to 1,140 hours is equivalent of 30 hours a week will save families £4,500 per child per year. Free school meals, all children in primary 1 to 3 are entitled to free school meals, saving families around £380 per year and making sure stigma does not stop children who need to get in a decent meal. No bedroom tax, the Scottish Government has ensured that no one in Scotland has to pay the Tories' hated bedroom tax, ensuring that 70,000 households, 80 per cent of which have disabled family members, save more than £600 per year on average and able to stay in their own home. And free prescriptions, Presiding Officer. Scottish patients who need a prescription save £8.40 per item as compared to England. The Tories want to charge patients every time they need a prescription. That would mean a Tory tax of an extra £100 for people with long-term conditions. But of course, Presiding Officer, we all know that the Westminster Tory Government is more interested in making those with long-term conditions suffer under their so-called welfare reforms. Presiding Officer, you may or may not be aware that next week is multiple sclerosis awareness week and although this year's theme is on MS specialist nursing, the focus over the past few years has been the impact of welfare reform for those living with MS. Now, I mention this for two reasons, Presiding Officer. The first being that Stacey Adam would probably inflict bodily harm if I didn't mention it, but also the impact that this can have on our economy. MS Society Scotland published a document called MS Enough and it talks about this impact. The findings of this report are quite staggering as it finds that people with MS have had to reduce spending on basic essentials and show that socialising is a result of disability benefit changes. 30 per cent of those with MS spent less on food because of the Conservative Westminster cuts. 25 per cent reduced their spending on gas and electricity and 47 per cent spent less on socialising with family and friends. All that on the back of Tory welfare cuts. That has obviously had an impact on our economy and if you increase that to include all those living with other long-term conditions, you can see the impact that Tory economic devastation is causing. MS Enough also found that 80 per cent of people living with MS were forced to give up work within 15 years of diagnosis. So you understand how all that impacts on people with long-term conditions being an active member of the economy and there are 11,000 people with MS in Scotland. However, one of the biggest impacts on our economy and one that has been created by sheer Tory recklessness is that of Brexit. A hard Brexit will impact negatively on business growth and lead to skill shortages, which will in turn reduce employment, investment and public spending across the country. Of course, David Davis told the Commons Brexit Committee in 15 March that he had done no economic assessment when, as he said, I cannot quantify it yet, I may be able to do so in about a year's time. That shows how much focus and direction the Westminster Government has on our economy. Presiding Officer, I stated earlier that I believe in facing our challenges head on in finding solutions to problems. The Scottish Government has the same attitude working within a system that they have had to mitigate against the decisions made elsewhere to protect our nation from the Tories. And they will continue to do that over the next couple of months as we continue to debate the true cost of potentially never ending Tory rule in Westminster. Thank you very much. I call Pauline McNeill to be followed by Ash Denham and Ms McNeill, please. Presiding Officer, whatever the positives are of the employment figures in Scotland, overall it is clear that all is not as well as it should be in the Scottish economy. It is surprising that this has not attracted more debate as we wait with concern for the next quarter figures to find out whether Scotland might be in recession. If that was the case, it is already too late to prevent it. Therefore, we must see the evidence that the Scottish Government is using all the available powers to change the trajectory of the Scottish economy. And whether the UK Government, who is also responsible for the Scottish economy, whether it is ready to give appropriate appropriate Brexit solution for Scotland's needs, which are different as they will be in Wales and Northern Ireland. The solutions that are being presented are a choice between hard Brexit out of the single market or independence from the UK. Sadly, the general election now called will probably be dominated by these two options. I for one will be campaigning to expose the Tory record of failing ordinary people in their everyday lives as the cost of living rises. Restricting child benefit to two children will only add to child poverty that they claim they would solve, but, crucially, it will not encourage the population growth that we need. As others have mentioned, low wages, insecurity in work, the gap between rich and poor, which is increasing, must be at centre stage in this election if ordinary people's views are to be represented. If Theresa May is real reason for calling a general election, as she says it is, if she is behind a Brexit plan so that she can negotiate for those purposes, then she does need to ensure and provide an assurance that that includes a plan that needs the needs of Scotland too. I have argued in this Parliament many times that that must include a say in immigration to provide Scotland with the appropriate population growth to ensure that we can have the appropriate skills that are markedly lower than the rest of the UK. There has been a diversion in the growth path and in job creation between Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom which increased around the time that oil price fell. There needs to be a serious analysis around this as to why. It's obvious if we don't know why they will not have the right solutions to tackle it. The global financial crisis of 2008 should never be forgotten as being the underlying reason for most of our country's problems current and future. The two-fold choices presented by the SNP and the Tories compound the problems that the global financial crisis created. Whatever the result of the general election both the UK and Scottish Governments need to be focused on the economy on the creation of quality jobs with protection at work attracting inward investment and new infrastructure to give business and consumers some confidence in the long-term plans for our country. Brexit and the manner of Brexit has already caused huge problems for the UK as a whole. Even though the UK economy has shown some resilience as Tom Arthur said earlier we haven't left the European Union yet so we haven't felt the full effects. But none of those constitutional choices if they come to pass will deal with the fact here and now that action is needed urgently to change the direction that we are currently headed in. Wage stagnation is amongst one of the most serious issues across the United Kingdom. In July last year wage growth was worse than anywhere in Europe apart from Greece. UK wages dropped by more than 10% since the financial crash. Francis Grady, the general secretary of the TUC said that that represents the steepest decline in real wages since at least the 1830s. Yes, the 1830s, not the 1930s. The story of Brexit was that immigration was presented as the cause for wage stagnation and it's worth noting that Anton Muscatelli a respected economist said in his recent lecture that since 2007-2008 real wages have been depressed in the UK. It's got nothing to do with immigration. It has been depressed because of the way national income has been shared between employment and profits and that's a direct quote. In my eyes this is another way of saying that unrestrained capitalism has caused this sharp gulf. If we do nothing about the long-term position of wages and not just implementing the living wage then we will never catch up. Many economists believe that we do not know all the factors which have led to this grim performance of the Scottish economy. However, one key problem is the slow rate of population growth which appears to be slow than in the rest of the United Kingdom. I hope that it is agreed by all the parties that we must be giving the tools to tackle the slow rate of the population growth. In concluding, I welcome the chance to debate the way forward. I have one question if the cabinet secretary Keith Brown is going to be summing up and that is how the Scottish Government is going to use the £200 million UK-wide apprenticeship levy. That's because I've had some representation that business groups are saying that they are not clear how that's going to be used and I'd be grateful for a response on that. I conclude. Ash Denham to follow by Rachel Hamilton. Ms Denham, please. In a report last week from the most comprehensive to-date research on start-up environments, the firm Expert Market named Edinburgh as the best city in the whole of the UK to start a new business. Edinburgh was named as the best place for new businesses because of things like high-speed internet, strong pool of university students and reasonable office rents. While that is welcome news, it's not altogether surprising. Edinburgh, like the whole of the UK, benefits from a Government that is investing £400 million to ensure super-fast, broadband internet to 100 per cent of properties by 2021. Additionally, £1 billion of yearly investment in Scotland's higher education institutions certainly helps Edinburgh's universities to produce a top-tier workforce for businesses. The economy should, rightfully, be a prime concern for all of us in Parliament, as the policies that we create and support make the difference between our cities, like Edinburgh, being at the top of the economic rankings or at the bottom. Yet I believe that everyone understands that economic policy in its great importance is ultimately about what kind of society it provides. It's whether a decent quality of life is afforded to those with less money in their pockets as it is to those with more. It's whether training and education is readily available and accessible so that all people regardless of income have a pathway to a successful career. It's whether a climate exists for the creation of good-paying jobs with tax policy that is fair rather than a patronage system to the wealthiest. It's whether the economy is creating equal opportunity for all or just for some and I believe that under the SNP Government it is equal opportunity for all. As a result, in the past five years, more young people from the most deprived areas in Scotland are going to university. Median full-time pay has grown 21 per cent in the last 10 years and is now the highest pay anywhere in the UK outside of London and the south-east. Unemployment has fallen as we've heard to 4.5 per cent lower than the rest of the UK with youth unemployment the second lowest in all of the EU. Productivity, a key measure of sustainable economic growth and long-term health of an economy has grown four times faster than in the UK. More people getting an education and better pay more people in work a more productive workforce these are all things worth celebrating. If you lived outside of Scotland and listened only to the Scottish Tories you would think that this country is a land where no business could prosper and no person could lead a good quality of life. Members of this Parliament more than anyone should be champions of this country yet as usual I will. I hear what the member says but does the member accept that there are some problems in the Scottish economy and if so can she point to any plan to address them? Ashton. Clearly there's always more to do in any economy and that applies equally to the UK but I think that this is rank hypocrisy today in coming to this chamber to discuss the economy. The Tories come to this chamber week in and week out claiming that they want to improve Scotland's economy and yet when the Scottish Government put forward an entirely feasible plan to keep Scotland in the single market the Tories will not back it. I think that tells the Scottish public everything that they need to know about the Scottish Tories and the member should make a decision. Does he speak for London or will he speak up for Scotland? As usual the Scottish Tories would rather paint a bleak and defeated picture to the rest of the world instead of celebrating Scotland being among the best places in the world to live and to do business. GDP is an important measure of how the economy is doing which is why this Government is instituting policies to try to grow GDP faster. There is £500 million for investment guarantees and loans to help companies to grow and export embedding innovation and investment hubs across Europe to boost international exports which are already up 41% under the SNP saving properties £1.2 billion in rates through the small business bonus scheme and it is clear that this Government is fostering a country where business development is less clear is why the Tories are keen to drag Scotland down a path that would be so destructive. How ironic is it that the Tories lead today's debate on Scotland's economy while all the while supporting Theresa May's hard Brexit at every step of the way which could cost this country up to 80,000 jobs? How ironic is it that their leader Ruth Davidson would not only defend the inhumane Tory rape clause but claim that Hollywood should spend money intended for vital public services to mitigate a Westminster created policy? What sort of economic stewardship is that? Not the kind that has the best interest of Scotland at heart, that's for certain. In a time when Scottish industries such as life sciences, financial services and tourism are flourishing on the global stage the Tories would point to a lack of confidence while my message to the Tories is this the greatest confidence that this country lacks is from the Scottish Conservatives. I remain confident in Scottish growth, Scottish opportunity and resilience and I believe that the majority of people who live, work and do business in Scotland feel the same. Thank you. I call Rachael Hamilton. I draw members to my register interests and remind them that I am a business owner. Today's debate sets out the SNP's dismal record of performance with regards to Scotland's economy. Brace yourself for a ride on the ghost train along our high streets and past the empty shops. Yes, it's that time of year when the Mayfair visits our local towns and cities and we whoop and holler on the rollercoaster rides. But this is real life. The Scottish economy is flatlining and in this chamber we will be accused of talking Scotland down. I say to the Scottish Government look in the funny house mirror because it's ten years of SNP Government that's led us almost every single major business organisation research unit, institute even your own Scottish Government figures point out the doom and gloom statistics that exist on Scotland's high streets and in rural towns and villages. Retail is Scotland's largest private sector employer employing 250,000 people 13 per cent of the private sector workforce. However, most recent data indicates that there were over 9,000 fewer jobs in the industry between 2014 and 15. We hear from businesses that they're struggling. They're juggling cash flow by robbing Peter to pay Paul. They're deferring payments and stacking up credit charges. Business owners are weighing up the cost of Labour versus customer service. Investment plans have been parked and essential maintenance put on the back burner. The Scottish National Party liked to blame the vagaries of Brexit. We heard earlier from Murdo Fraser who quoted Graham Roy from Fraser Ballander who said it's hard to argue that Scotland's weaker performance is explained by the outcome of the EU referendum, particularly when the rest of the UK is outperforming and have experienced the same Brexit. Let's take a look at what's happened on our high streets in the south of Scotland. Empty retail units and shops in Galashields and Donfries. Why? Because rents are too expensive and business rates too high. David Lonsdale from the Scottish Retail Consortium says, with shop vacancies increasingly increasing and one in every 10 retail premises now empty, there is a pressing need to reduce the cost of doing business. We have yet to hear a convincing explanation as to why firms operating from medium to larger size premises in Scotland are better placed to be stomping up more in business rates than firms in comparable premises elsewhere in the UK. Will the Scottish Government listen to the Scottish consortium and follow their recommendations? Have they actually read that report? Before I get an intervention about small business rate relief, I forget it because show me the evidence that small business rate relief is working. If it was, we'd see a growth in retail and thriving high streets in the south of Scotland. The divergence in tax rates has impacted on the Scottish economy and because of that Scotland is not an attractive location to set up business. A consequence of devolution means that the Scottish Government can make different policy decisions north of the border. Those differing approaches are firstly the impact of a Scottish-specific taxation such as doubling of a large business supplement makes operation in Scotland more expensive and affects retail investment. One in ten commercial premises in Scotland pay the large business supplement and Liz Cameron of the Scottish Chamber of Commerce said that the decision to double the large business supplement puts many Scottish businesses at a competitive disadvantage compared to their counterparts in the rest of the UK. When the Scottish economy is underperforming at the UK as a whole, it goes on to say that this additional tax affects a wide range of businesses including shops, offices, factories and hotels for whom an increase in their fixed costs is the last thing they need at the moment. This moves me from retail to hospitality. Two sectors that feed off each other and attract visitors to Scotland. Six weeks ago, Derek Mackay announced a 12.5 per cent cap on rises for eight and a half thousand pubs, restaurants, cafes, hotels and other hospitality firms. Over Easter recess, I learned that due to inflation the cap will increase to 14.75 per cent. I also learned that the SNP Government has changed the legislation to state firms must now wait at least 105 days before a decision is made on their rates bill. Previously the limit was just 70 days meaning those affected will have an additional 35 days of being out of pocket. I think it's great that the front is talking amongst themselves when this is quite a serious business matter. Considering finances for many of these organisations, I will. I was listening to what she was saying. I was looking for research to point out but presumably she will welcome the fact given that she is referring to hospitality industry that the First Minister on her trip to the United States has managed to sign a deal between TripAdvisor and VisitScotland to be a massive boost to the tourism sector in Scotland. Maybe she will welcome that. I thank Paul Wheelhouse for that intervention. Unfortunately I don't welcome that because of the very reason that's an unregulated organisation and if you looked at the international hoteliers profile on Facebook you'd actually realised that they don't welcome it either. This is just another indication of an anti-business SNP Government that would rather hit firms in the pocket than help boost growth jobs and the economy. The SNP Government took over three weeks to send out guidance to local councils who collect rates on their behalf resulting in businesses having to pay the original amount before the cap was announced. Some bills are mounting to between 50% and 300% increase more than they previously paid and then try to claim the money back. Just doesn't make business sense. Many businesses will see a dent in their cash flow and there has been an outcry from the industry who feel they've been misled by the finance secretary. The Scottish retail sector is going backwards under this SNP Government. Employment in this sector is down. Investment is stalling, cash flow is tight, fix costs are up and at the top of all we have a finance secretary boasting about business rate policy that is unraveling by the day. I support the motion in my utter phrases now. Time is really really tight so under six minutes would be appreciated Ivan McKee followed by Jamie Greene. I draw the Parliament's attention to my role as the parliamentary liaison officer to the cabinet secretary for the economy. Here we are, Presiding Officer, trying to get on with the day job, creating employment with some 16,000 new jobs delivered over the past three months, Scotland enjoying the lowest unemployment levels of anywhere in the UK, achieving the best inward investment levels anywhere outside London. The only part of the UK to be fixing the productivity puzzle rather than talking about it with growth and productivity in Scotland four times higher than that of the rest of the UK. Dealing with impact of global energy markets to support oil and gas sectors through the current cycle, with little help from a Westminster Government focused on the economy of London and the south-east, making Scotland the lowest tax part of the UK. With savings in council tax, which benefit the vast majority of people in Scotland more than offsetting any income tax benefit for the top 10 per cent that the Tories obsess about. Here we are doing what we were elected to do, but facing constant interruptions and distractions from a UK Government obsessed with exiting the European Union above all else. A Tory Prime Minister diverting UK Government resource during the blind alley of negotiating the first trade deal in history. The first trade deal in history with the objective was to make both parties to the negotiation worse off than they were before they started. That was a hard decision to drag us into a general election. The voters of Scotland know that this is a gimmick and they will respond accordingly on 8 June. There is in this Tory motion an assertion that the willingness of this Scottish Government to let the people of Scotland have their say in the future of this country is somehow creating economic uncertainty. That is from the party that gave us Brexit diverting the whole of the UK Government away from the day job to satisfy their decades-long obsession that irony meter is off the scale. Let's talk about uncertainty. With the FTSE yesterday, the 100s yesterday suffered the biggest single day drop since the Brexit vote, losing 170 points and wiping 45 billion from the value of UK companies when the Prime Minister announced she had no clue how to proceed with the Brexit negotiations so she was going to ask the country a different question instead. That presiding officer is what uncertainty looks like because the hard reality is that hard Brexit will take an intervention. I also say that, at the same time as the stock market had a wobble, the pound increased significantly yesterday. No, no, it's the other way around. The stock market reacts to the pound, you should know that. Can the member confirm what currency an independent Scotland would use? Ivan McKee. As you know fine well, before we go to the referendum on independence the Scottish Government will present full details of what an independent Scotland will look like which is far, far, far more than was presented to the people when before the Brexit vote we won't just be patent of slogan on the side of a bus. Because the hard reality is that hard Brexit is going to be a disaster. The Prime Minister knows that and she knows she needs to buy time and the hope that the mess will be sorted by 2022. That's why we've been dragged back to vote only two years after the last Westminster election in spite of the much-vaunted fixed-term Parliament act that turns out not to be worth the paper that it's written on. But thankfully somebody has done the work to examine using our robust methodology and real data what exactly it is that does cause economic uncertainty. The recent report from the Fraser of Allander Institute takes a long hard look at volatility over recent years and identifies the political events that drive that uncertainty. It makes for interesting reading because the inclusions that Fraser of Allander comes to are clear. The biggest drivers of economic uncertainty in recent times were the Brexit vote and, wait for it, the UK general election. Both of which generated significantly more uncertainty than the 2014 Scottish referendum. That, of course, reinforces what we already know. In the run-up to September 2014 Scotland benefited from strong and increasing inward investment performance moving up the UK league table to setting place after London. We saw a GDP growth per Captain Scotland outstripping that of the rest of the UK, hardly a sign of lack of confidence in Scotland's future or an indication of economic uncertainty. The Tories are concerned about the impact of political decisions on the Scottish economy. They might want to have a wee word with our Prime Minister and let her know that we've got a day job to do here and can't be doing with this constant and political gimmickry from Westminster. They might want to let her know that now is not the time to shut down Westminster for a month because she can't think of anything better to do. Let's talk about growing the economy. Scotland, as we know, doesn't have full control over the levers to grow the economy. Key levers are all controlled at Westminster. Corporation tax, tax allowances for business, capital gains tax, employers' national insurance, employees' national insurance, tax on dividends and savings, are all controlled over what is the very definition of income. We are trying to run this economy with one hand tied behind our back. Poseidon, poll after poll shows that people of Scotland trust this Parliament, this Scottish Parliament far more than Westminster to deliver for them and to look after their interests. The lack of confidence in the other place will only be deepened by the bizarre carry-on of the last 24 hours. The truth is that to deliver what is needed to achieve the level of prosperity and joy in other European neighbours and let us not forget that the top 10 richest countries in the world are always the same size as Scotland and almost none of them enjoy the advantage that Scotland enjoys in terms of natural resources and human resources to deliver those levels of prosperity to Scotland who is full control over the levers of the economy. That is why, in addition to getting on with the day job, unlike the Westminster Government, we will continue to argue for more powers to come to Scotland so that the Scottish Parliament will deliver for the people in the economy of Scotland. Five minutes each for the last three speeches, please. Jamie Greene, followed by Gillian Martin. Thank you, Presiding Officer. Here we are once again in this chamber discussing an issue that the Scottish Government has neglected to. Perhaps on the issue of the economy it is either too afraid to or too ashamed to. I will begin by pointing towards page 12 of their own manifesto that it stood on last year on a page entitled A Wealthier Scotland. In its states, our focus is on growing Scotland's economy and creating rewarding opportunities for all the people of our country. If that is your focus, you have a funny way of showing it. It is depressing to be having this debate today that after 10 years of SNP government, while the UK economy grows, our economy has shrunk. We are no longer talking about lower growth in Scotland. We are talking about negative growth. We are talking about stagnation. We are side slipping into a recession in Scotland under the less than watchful eye of this Government. Keeping in with Mr Wilhous's nautical theme today in speeches, the warnings came like a political Frederick fleet. Financial iceberg straight ahead. So why did the SNP grow Scotland straight into it bow first? Of course they blame Westminster. They always do, but the truth is that the problem lies much closer to home. It sits over there. What does this all mean on the ground for real businesses in Scotland? For months now, for example, I've been raising awareness of the private car higher industry. Small wedding and special event companies, including one in Soulcoats in my region, were struggling with the additional financial burden of regulation. One owner told me that hundreds of small firms could close down real companies, real jobs, real people. You only need to look at the FSB's recent survey on business confidence to know the scale of the problem here. This is a Government which thinks that wealth creation and entrepreneurialism are dirty words. Scotland lags behind the UK and every other region has job creation rates. The UK right is 8.6 and in Scotland just 1.7. Those are ONS figures. Is anyone to the Scottish economy retracting? How many firms can have confidence in a Government which, from April 2016, doubled the supplement on the right for large businesses from 1.3 to 2.6 per cent? What kind of message does that give to businesses? How can our agricultural industry flourish when farmers don't even know if they're going to be paid on time? How can households of faith in a Government which says if you live in a modest, bandy house you should be taxed more? How can workers have confidence in a Government which says that in Scotland you would be taxed more than the rest of the UK? So much for focusing on creating a wealthy Scotland. You might pay lip service in your manifesto but today's debate is a damning indictment of what taking your eye off the ball really looks like in the cold light of day. The SNP's refusal to even acknowledge that there is a problem is what has led us to where we are today. Their motion does not even mention last quarter's contraction. They're burying their heads in the sand. How many more warnings do they need? The FSB, the Fraser of Allander Institute, the Scottish Chambers of Commerce, the Royal Institute of Chartered Savers, the Institute of Directors, warning after warning, on income tax, on independence, on LBTT, on productivity, are they all wrong? But in the spirit of positivity I'd like to be helpful here. Here are three simple things you can do. One, take the threat of independence off the table. The First Minister can do this today not because I'm asking her to but because Scotland needs her to. Stop taxing Scottish workers more than the rest of the UK so that you can attract the best talent to Scotland from elsewhere in the UK. Before this debate today, I was in an event discussing the skills gaps in so many sectors in Scotland. How can we attract the best talent when we have a sign at the border saying welcome to High Tax Scotland? Thirdly, create an environment that rewards hard work not one that penalises ambition. Those aren't just numbers in a spreadsheet. Those figures represent the livelihoods of people up and down this country who are paying the price of this SNP Government. I tell you what, the sooner this ship sets sail, Scotland can say bon voyage to their mismanagement of its economy. Gillian Martin, followed by Tom Arthur. I tell you we're not going to be welcoming many people to Scotland when it gets painted like a ghost town in an economic basket case by the Tories, are we? You can always be sure that when a report comes out the first thing our Tory MSPs and their backroom staff do is scour it to see how badly Scotland comes out of it. The second thing they do is check that the performance figure for the UK is better than that of Scotland before they make a fuss about it. It's a bizarre way to act for elected representatives of a country. It's also a very strange way to look at issues around our economy and see our potential. We see where we can improve and how we can get to where we want to be and Paul Wheelhouse outlined many of those in his opening speech. That said, when two Parliament share responsibility for the whole package of economic and fiscal levers for those powers are still disproportionately divvied up between us, we need to look at how the policies of both Governments help or hinder Scotland's potential. The beginning of responsibility just is not working. It's looking like they're going to be divergent for a long time to come. The miserable Tory motion that was put before us today asks us actually tells us, don't look over there at the UK Government, don't look at the economic vandalism of Brexit, don't look at the fiscal maze of partial powers the UK Government of giving Scotland, with Ash Scotland to play poker with half the deck missing. The Resolution Foundation recently released a report concerning the economic history of employment income and inequality in the UK, and the report projected an increase in income inequality. It states that projected real earnings growth will mainly benefit middle and higher income households, while the proposed cut and maximum benefits cap to £20,000 per year contained in the full employment and welfare benefits bill would primarily hit lower income households. Inequality is the single biggest problem for any economy. IMF studies continually point to this fact. An unequal society significantly affects the economic growth and success of that country, far more than any market jitters around citizens being asked to exercise their vote in a plebiscite constitutional or otherwise. We are trying to end inequality in Scotland. It is morally the right thing to do, but it's also economically the right thing to do. However, the economic benefits of reducing inequality, the fiscal payoff at the other end of the equation, don't all come to Scotland, as has been mentioned by many of my colleagues. When citizens have more money, particularly those in the lower end of the economic spectrum, who don't hoard their money or hide it in offshore accounts, they spend that money. As a result, more VAT and corporation tax is collected. VAT, national insurance, corporation tax, all the other ones that Ivan McKee mentioned is still reserved to the UK Government. Those are not the only tax levers that the UK has that has been used to create inequality and damage to our economy. Let's take a topical example. The Tory two-child policy on tax credits affect on families and work in work. 50,000 households will be affected and £50 million will be taken out of the pockets of Scottish families by 2020-21. The Institute of Fiscal Studies estimates that a three-child family will lose on average £2,500 per year, while families with four children or more will lose seven pounds. No, I don't have time, Mr Lockhart. Pauline McNeill rightly points to the long-time effects of such a policy on population growth. Just how many disabled people having their pit payments taken off them has affected their participation in the economy as their adapted vehicles are taken from them. I would like to see the figures on that. Despite the drivers of inequality stifling economic prosperity from the UK Tory Government, we have good stories to tell about that economic activity of our people. Youth unemployment is at the lowest in the UK, one of the lowest in Europe. Productivity growth in Scotland is four times as fast as the UK is measured by output per hour worked. Perhaps that is because of our labour market strategies, or our free access to higher education, or our efforts to encourage businesses to pay living wage. Scotland has the highest pay anywhere in the UK outside London and the south-east of England. Expect that productivity to increase once more, once free child care provision doubles. It will save families an average of £4,500 per year, which means that working women will be increasing Scotland's income tax take. Yet again, all the other benefits of that will be going down to the Treasury in the UK. Here is an idea to grow Scotland's economy. Give us all the economic powers. Then, and only then, will the Tories not be accused of hypocrisy when they put a miserable, one-sided, finger-pointing motion like this before us. The last of the open speeches. Tom Arthur, please. It's a pleasure to have the opportunity to participate in this debate. It's a very interesting debate and I've enjoyed listening to contributions from all sides. Some interesting, some provocative, confirming what I already suspected. I want to pick up on a few things that Murdo Fraser initially said. I now set aside some of the issues. He did identify a couple of things I want to hone in on. He mentioned city deals. I absolutely agree with him. I think that city deals are a fantastic initiative and certainly is an MSP for Renfisher and East Renfisher, both Renfisher and And East Renfisher are benefiting substantially from the Glasgow City and Clyde Valley deal. This is something that the Scottish Government has put £500 million into. I think that it has to be welcomed and it should be recognised. This is actually making a fundamental difference within East Renfisher. Over £40 million of investment we've seen from that, the Cross Mill Business Centre, a new road network between Barhead, Newton-Merns and the M77 and a new railway station near Orkinback. All of this has been delivered by having the SNP and the Administration in East Renfisher Council and my colleague Councillor Tony Buchanan, who is the convener for infrastructure and growth, has been doing a fantastic job. One of the most exciting developments is going to be the Dams to Darnley country park. There's going to be a visitor centre and there's also going to be a wakeboard park. I don't know how many people are aware of what wakeboarding is. To untrain that, it's essentially standing on a surfboard and being pulled by a motor boat or a pulley behind up to speeds of 25 to 30 miles an hour. He performed various tricks and that's how you demonstrate your capability. Given that this is in East Renfisher and there are two MSPs for East Renfisher in this chamber I'm going to challenge Jackson Carlaw today that when that water park opens he will meet me on the reservoir. Jackson Carlaw. I'm very grateful to Mr Arthur giving way. It is true that the SNP are two or three of the minority figures in what is otherwise a failing Labour administration in East Renfisher. We've also acknowledged that millions of pounds have been wasted in East Renfisher by this administration, particularly over the Cowan Park development, where the council pursued policies which led to over five million pounds being added to the cost of the barhead high school he's talking about and some estimate potentially as much as 25 million. East Renfisher will do very well to be shot at Mr Arthur's party on May 4. Tom Arthur. It's hardly an appropriate intervention for this debate but if you want to answer Mr Arthur, you have no extra time if you wish to respond. I will simply acknowledge that the key figures in that administration of the SNP figures have been delivered for barhead in all of East Renfisher and will continue to do so after 4 May. There was another issue in Murdoffweath that did a serious issue and that is on the issue of exports and internationalisation. I find it bizarre that he would say this in the chamber because this Government is invested in hubs in Dublin, London and Brussels and including new permanent trade representation in Berlin. I would think that any efforts made by the Scottish Government to increase the internationalisation of our economy would be welcomed. A couple of weeks ago, when the First Minister visited the US announcing fresh investment that will support and create jobs, what was the Tory response? Get on with the day job. Clearly I hadn't realised that what the Tories meant by internationalisation was empire 2.0 but I'm very sorry to disappoint you. Miss Parliament doesn't have the power to reconstitute the East India Company or compare China to Biopium or whatever other deludied Brexit and fuelled nostalgic nonsense that you want to go and voice upon us. Specifically, one more issue that I want to highlight. I'm sorry, I'm pushed for time otherwise I would. Very briefly. Jackie Baillie. As a point of history, it was indeed the Scots that led the Opium trade with China. It's a very valid point and I appreciate that intervention. Specifically on the issue. No, I recognise it. It's not something that's important now, unlike this a lot, but never mind. In terms of productivity, which is a very important issue, we've seen productivity growing at four times the rate of the rest of the UK and that's a highly important issue and it's something that I know other members have taken interest in because with the onset of automation in AI and robotics this is going to become an increasing challenge and productivity is going to be a driver, it's going to be a key issue, it's going to be a key metric. More a key metric than perhaps it is at the moment. I think we have to think about that and give it far more cognisance and consideration in our debates about the economic performance of Scotland when we do it. I appreciate it. It's an inconvenient fact for the Conservatives but I think it's one that is rightfully should be highlighted. With the very little time that I've got left I just want to this issue of Scotland to be perfectly untrue. Taken in totality Scotland is not the highest tax part of the UK but what I find very disconcerting is the Conservatives present this argument and they state that higher taxes would undermine consumer confidence and business confidence. Why is it when they believe this to be the case but they know it not to be the case that Scotland is the highest tax part of the UK? Do they continue to propagate this misinformation of tenuous veracity? To be ashamed of that and take some responsibility. We now move to the closing speeches and I notice that there are a couple of members who participated in the debate who aren't in the chamber. Can I first of all call Mike Rumbles up to six minutes please Mr Rumbles. Thank you Deputy Presiding Officer. Well it's been interesting but somewhat predictable debate. The Conservatives have concentrated on, thank you very much, Conservatives have concentrated on criticising the SNP Government for a lack of action on the economy and absolutely deservedly so. The SNP have concentrated on criticising the UK Conservative Government for everything actually everything. If only we had a little bit more powers from the cry from the SNP members everything would be sweetness and light. The only problem with this is the fact that SNP Ministers refused to use the tax-varying powers to a large extent to make any kind of real difference to the Scottish economy. I'd like to just comment on three or four contributions that members have made and I'd just like to mention first of all Joan McAlpine I have to say I wonder where she is it just seemed one long blame game against the UK Government and I'd like to just single her out particularly because she was just quite remarkable with it she criticised the fact that the UK Government failed to use its tax-raising powers and I saw how ironic it wasn't it John Swinney who allowed when he was finance minister who allowed our tax-varying powers to lapse voted for in a referendum of the people and he allowed it to to relapse and kept it quiet from Parliament it was only discovered at a later date what responsibility that Mr Swinney Liam Kerr if I may refer to Liam Kerr very humorous contribution very effective contribution the things that kept him awake at night and I do sympathise I do sympathise indeed but he hit the nail on the head when he pointed out the complacency I'm afraid of Scottish Government ministers over a lack of any concrete economic plan to address the problems that raised the Scottish economy and he George Adam mentioned the SNP's abolition of tuition fees which I for one was pleased to vote through in the very first session of the Scottish Parliament it's interesting how people claim at various actions when they obviously weren't here themselves to realise that it was the Labour Administration with the Liberal Democrat Administration that did that and Gillian Martin focused and she didn't say this but it sort of came across as the nasty things the UK Government was doing instead of focusing on what the Scottish Government could be doing because after all isn't this the Scottish Parliament where we're focusing on what the Scottish Government can do if Gillian Martin believes that we should be raising taxes to help the less well off and I say that's an admirable thing to say in a moment and I'll come back to you within the gift of Scottish ministers to use their income tax powers to do just that but they don't want to do that so any criticism by Gillian Martin of the Scottish ministers I didn't hear a word I would have more respect for Gillian Martin if she did that I give way to Gillian Martin Gillian Martin I'm not too bothered about the respect Mr Rumbles what I'm bothered about has been misquoted in my speech where I said that we should raise taxes in order to help poorer people because I did not make that assertion at all Mike Rumbles I apologise, I was trying to be helpful to her when that's the point I thought she was making so let's get the record straight I'm happy to do that it's just that the speeches she makes so often called for more expenditure and I thought that's what she meant if you have more expenditure then you need to face the consequences of that I really do I would like to respect the member and I think it's important that members do respect each other and I hope to be able to do that I really hope that in the minister in his summing up well first of all recognise that the Scottish economy is not in a good place I think that's the first thing the minister has to do he hasn't done it yet when he responded to the conservative opening speech and I said this in my opening speech I hope it isn't the fact but we could be in recession right now and there seems to be a huge complacency coming from the front bench of the Scottish Government to be able to address a problem you first of all got to accept that a problem exists and so far we haven't heard that the Liberal Democrats believe that the Scottish Government has missed a huge opportunity in the budget process for instance a transformational change that we believe we need in our education and skills training base the Liberal Democrats have a clear vision for the economy of Scotland I wish the Scottish Government had too we want to see this transformational investment in education and skills which is needed by our companies and organisations across the country we want to keep the country within the single market of the United Kingdom that is fundamentally important for us and we want to keep Scotland within the single market of the European Union and avoid a hard Brexit and I don't have any great expectations of this but I would still urge members to support our amendment thank you I call Andy Wightman up to six minutes please Mr Wightman thank you Presiding Officer and I welcome this debate initiated by Murdo Fraser and the Conservatives I agree with Murdo that we need to debate it seriously but it's hard to take seriously Murdo Fraser and his party a party who at Westminster are pursuing a reckless, hard Brexit and who are now pursuing a hasty and disruptive general election to settle more internal Conservative party problems I think it'll come as no surprise to members that we recognise neither the conservative gloom in their motion nor indeed arguably some of the sunny optimism of the SNP and other amendments we're a party who are part of an international movement who have developed green economics over decades who recognise that endless growth is not possible on a finite planet Labour's motion amendment rather fails to take that into account with its focus on economic growth green economics also recognises that the climate crisis is leading to growing instability unrest and economic decline we also recognise that to keep within Paris climate targets we need to keep a majority of hydrocarbons in the ground hydrocarbons that are often touted by other parties here as part of the economic future of Scotland and that's why we can't support the SNP amendment either it's why also in 2015 we commissioned a report that Jobs in Scotland's new economy that found that investing in the transferable skills of the offshore workers who currently work in the oil and gas could create over 200,000 jobs in the renewable energy industry by 2035 as opposed to the 156,000 jobs currently provided by extracting fossil fuels none of those ideas are ideas that should keep Liam Kerr awake none of those ideas are things that keep Liam Kerr awake at night and no doubt Liam Kerr also doesn't lose sleep over the fact that whilst he criticises the Government for lack of a plan his own party leader his own government in Westminster is the one with no plan as the UK leaves the EU and who is sitting with many of his colleagues who stood on a manifesto in 2015 in the general election a manifesto that promised the voters of the United Kingdom that the Conservatives would preserve the UK's place in the single market it promised that it would strengthen the single market and it also promised even to expand the single market so that Conservative motions gloom we would be voting against it we also refute the gloom of the Liberal Democrats and will be voting against it as my colleague Patrick Harvie mentioned in his opening much of the economic progress being trumpeted by the Tories is based on precarious employment low wages and levels of in and out of work poverty that should shame any industrial society we heard a contribution from Joan McAlpine highlighting the fact that private debt is a problem in the UK and the latest figures on private debt show that over £1.5 trillion is owned is owed by households in the United Kingdom a figure that's forecast to rise to over £2.3 trillion by 2022 and it's those levels of private borrowing and private debt that are indeed responsible for some of the better economic figures coming out of the UK but are fundamentally unsustainable Above all many of the arguments cited by members in this debate this afternoon were based on economic data that is not fit for purpose for example, gross domestic product is a very, very poor indicator of a sustainable economy it fails to distinguish between useful economic activity and damaging economic activity and if Murdo Fraser wants to learn a little bit more about the failings of GDP I recommend to attend a lecture tonight in this building by Professor Lorenz Fiaromonte hosted by Ash Denham I also recommend that he and others read a very good book Donut Economics by Kate Rayworth senior visiting research associate at Oxford University senior associate at the Cambridge Institute for Sustainable Leadership although it's called Donut Economics it's not about people's diet there's nothing about watermelons or lentils in it but it does tell us about seven ways in which we can think like 21st century economists it highlights for example a growing recognition that what we measure is of little use if it doesn't meet the real challenges we face she recalls for example classical economic arguments around land labour and capital which since the late 20th century have been forgotten in favour of only labour and capital and yet it's the natural resources it's the planet it's the water the land the soils the atmosphere that sustain life on earth and if we would have a serious debate on our economic future we would reframe the debate around new economic thinking a number of members including George Adam and Ash Denham talked about non-domestic rates for example and indeed the small business bonus scheme and in terms of the practical things we can do in this Parliament yes we can do practical things with tax but in our view for example the small business bonus scheme is not a terribly helpful scheme I was speaking to a small business owner the other day in Musselborough who was very happy with the fact that she is now paying no rates because of the rising of the threshold but next door an empty shop the rent was being increased in recognition of the fact that the occupier would no longer need to pay rates and so they are no better off as a consequence and what's happening is that a tax that might help East Lothian Council in that instance is now being transferred straight into the pockets of private landlord we see this also in Edinburgh where short term lecs are growing all these owners of property that are part of the cause of the housing crisis again are paying no taxes to Edinburgh City Council Presiding Officer Scottish Greens have done a lot since our establishment in 1990 to argue that we need a very different economic model we can begin that with devolved powers but we cannot fully realise the transformation without very fundamental change in how the UK economy is run from its financialisation of the housing markets to its isolationist approach to Europe, to rising public and private debt Presiding Officer, the green amendment highlights the real challenges facing the Scottish economy and I commend it to members I call Richard Leonard up to six minutes please Mr Leonard Thanks Deputy Presiding Officer many people that I speak to on the doorsteps of Central Scotland would simply not recognise the economic golden era painted by the Government's amendment to the motion this afternoon in truth the real rate of unemployment is twice as great as the official figures suggest and we are living through a period of rising inflation of a falling although sometimes oscillating pound and Scottish manufacturing output as a share of GDP has crashed by 10% over the last two years down to 9% of a share of onshore GDP and as a result we have a trade deficit according to the Scottish Government's own figures with the rest of the UK of £5.1 billion with the rest of the world £4.8 billion we have chronic wage stagnation which other speakers have referred to and so long term real pay cuts for the working poor year on year and that is a description which applies to workers the Scottish Government itself employs as well as those in the NHS in local government and those in precarious employment in the private sector and all of this pain for working people while shareholder dividend payments rose in the last quarter of last year by 11.7% as the Liberal Democrat amendment suggests the Scottish economy is teetering on the brink of recession I take no pleasure in that that's not something to relish but it has to be faced up to because the contraction of the Scottish economy means painful consequences for jobs cuts in not just the standard of living but in the quality of life not just for adults in work but for working age adults who cannot find work but who won't work and in the quality of life for children being raised in those families some of this stems from the immediate crisis we face from the threat of Brexit and the uncertainty it brings from the threat of a second independence referendum in four years when the people have already said no and from a Tory Government which has reverted to its old armory of attacking the trade unions and in so doing rolling back as much as it can the social responsibility of the idle rich and heaping the financial burden on to the working poor and to George Adam and others I say that the Conservative Government are not anti-Scottish they are anti-working class and whilst we haven't yet seen and whilst we haven't yet seen the Conservative Party manifesto I guarantee that the start that they have made on undermining trade unions will be considered unfinished business and they will be back for more and the Brexit mandate they are seeking will be a mandate but to diminish workers' rights in this country and we see it here again this afternoon in the Tory amendment which we will not support that the only economic programme of the Conservative Party is a tax cut this is not a serious policy for jobs and growth it is a recipe for continuing inequality and division and I hope that that philosophy will be rejected at the polls but to the SNP to John McAlpine Ivan McKee and others the charge is not that you don't have all of the powers you want it's that you haven't used all of the powers that you've got the government amendment says most power over the economy is reserved to the UK government but what about the power to increase government spending in Scotland and to raise all our taxation what about the power to build homes to create jobs what about the power to forge industrial policy and rebuild our manufacturing base what about the power the convener of the education committee what about the power over education and training what about the power to create well-paid socially useful jobs looking after the very old and the very young what about the power the government amendment speaks of investment in transport but the government just over two weeks ago slashed by almost 30% of the low carbon vehicle subsidy element of the bus service operator grant from 14.4% pence per live kilometre to 10.1 pence per live kilometre the government amendment speaks of a commitment to investment but at the same time they are not prepared to set up an investment bank structure worthy of the name it's been downsized it should be grown properly capitalised so that it could play a transformative role in changing our economy because if we are serious about tackling Scotland's productivity gap Scotland's investment gap if we are serious about the need for a renaissance in our manufacturing base the Scottish investment bank should be properly capitalised and let me turn in conclusion because in our view on these benches our task is clear the scourge of unemployment and reassert full employment as an item of public policy let's start the regeneration of our industrial base let's give hope to our young people let's turn the fate and anger of people of all ages into real hope and let's use the powers of this Parliament to do that because that is something that the Labour Party will be advocating in the weeks and months ahead I call Keith Brown up to seven minutes please cabinet secretary thank you thank you I welcome the opportunity to highlight the underlying strengths of the Scottish economy not least because nobody else in this chamber will in terms of other parties and also its resilience over the past couple of years and the actions that we are taking to support growth in our economy and protect Scotland from the impacts of a hard Brexit as Paul Wheel has set out at the start of the debate the Scottish economy is fundamentally strong but he also mentioned that we do have challenges and I've mentioned before we have challenges in terms of internationalisation making more of our companies involved in international activity thereby increasing exports we have challenges also in relation to productivity it's true as many people have said that productivity in Scotland has grown by 9.4 per cent since 2007 compared to growth of 0.1 per cent in the UK as a whole but that shouldn't be the bar that we aim for other countries like Germany and France have higher productivity it's also true to say of course Scottish employment is now 45,000 higher than it was in 2008 and just I'll come back to the point raised by Dean Lockhart in a few minutes about the growth over a period of time but we should remember since 2008 we've had one of the longest and deepest recessions in the UK's history now despite these challenges Scotland has substantial natural resources one of the most highly educated workforces in Europe a long standing reputation for innovation and national recognised brand we are world leaders now in key industries of the future such as life sciences, financial services and financial technology as well as creative industries and sustainable tourism in that context it's worth bearing in mind the productivity I will take a brief intervention from Mike Rumbles Mike Rumbles just to indicate whether he believes that the Scottish economy is in recession at the moment or not in recession Keith Brown The figures don't demonstrate that Scotland's in recession and I'm not going to play a game of trying to talk Scotland into recession as some people want to do so that's what the figures currently say just now as well as the fact that we have as I've mentioned the figures in terms of productivity and also in relation to employment it's worth saying that really this debate and I think it might have been Gillian Martin in fact no it's Andy Wightman said that really looking at Murdo Fraser's contribution this is not a serious debate for the Conservatives they're not treating this debate seriously look at the terms of the motion well if he was treating it seriously then I think you see first of all that take for example his stunning acute economic insight into a bit like his unique understanding of the Laffer Curve actually the unique insight that he's got when Gillian Martin made mention of the economic impact of transfer payments things like the rape clause will have an influence on that do not understand the economic impact of transfer payments shows the economic illiteracy of the Conservative Party it's also true to say that if I can make a bit more progress just now I'll see how time goes Murdo Fraser also showered Jackie Baillie with praise his favourites Labour MSP I think he was only cut off just before he was able to deliver that invitation to come to an invitation to a Conservative branch meeting Jackie Baillie is quite keen to do as well we had mentioned Murdo Fraser in relation to tax as well but no mention as to why the Conservative Party's flip-flop back and forward in terms of APD they didn't support it they weren't sure it should be done across a whole of the UK so the Conservative Party as well as having U-turns on things small things like SNAP general elections also has U-turns on things like the APD it's also true to say that if you look at what's behind the Conservative comments of the contributors that were there really it's harking back to a 1980s kind of economic model it's kind of thatcherism the kind of rancid toxic Tory kind of legacy that we had and the recession that we had in the 1990s the recession that we had in 2008 the foundations for that were laid in the 1980s in terms of again as Andy Wightman said in terms of personal borrowing and so on the build-up and the lack of banking regulation has kind of the Alan Bistard level of economic competence and I don't know how many people on the Tory side see themselves as Alan Bistard but I can tell you it's not an economic model that we intend to follow so it's not a serious debate that we've presented with by the Conservative Party there are very serious issues there have been some very serious contributions that by and large have not come from the Conservative Party if I can mention Rachel Hamilton who I think adopted a new line for the Conservative Party which was to be FFM has signed up to in the States that has actually been accepted by I think it was Douglas Ross who welcomed it at the time sorry, Ross Thompson who welcomed and I'm sorry I always confuse the two I'm apologising I see your face already I thought I was going to get sent off there for a second but it's been condemned by one but accepted by another it's not exactly economic literacy thank you to Keith Brown I would like to point out that I said that it is unregulated and if you looked at the United Hotel his Facebook page you would realise that they do not support it and I believe that a combination of Visit Scotland and TripAdvisor is not a good combination if it's unregulated Keith Brown said you didn't agree with it and I'm just saying that other parts of your party do agree with it despite those things I do think that there's an underlying strength Scotland's economy has proved its resilience over a number of years we have had growth in 2016 by 0.4% I've mentioned how unemployment has fallen £47,000 rather over the past year and the unemployment rate is now below that of the UK I mentioned that, it's not the only indicator I'm not trying to pretend that it is but it's been the subject of previous Tory press when that was the defining characteristic of the competence or otherwise if it is a mere lord in the UK you should draw the conclusion from that you can't have it both ways the Scottish Government will continue to implement its widely admired economic strategy based around the twin pillars of boosting competitiveness and tackling inequality and the point was made about inequality very powerfully by a number of speakers that's why we've had the emphasis that we've had on inclusive economic growth that's why we've had the emphasis and the success that we've had in terms of the living wage however it's true to say of course that the latest GDP data it shows that there is no room for complacency there is no complacency in relation to this we have laid out time and time again the measures that we intend to take and for those that call for ideas make your ideas, we've had one or two one from Gillian Martin, we've had one from Andy Wightman I think the points that Andy Wightman made in relation to data collection I have a lot of sympathy that's why the economic and skills enterprise review is looking at that but we also have to recognise what the real challenges are and to try and pretend that Brexit's not having an impact at some point you've got to say to yourself everybody else is saying it everyone else knows what's going on for the Scottish Tories to be the sole group of people in the UK that don't see the impact of Brexit just means you've got less credibility than otherwise you would have and that's not great in the first place so it's a great deal that we've heard it's exceeding within the Scottish economy I would just say finally that in relation to the motion before us I would ask the Parliament to support the amendment in my name the motion from the Conservative party I'm always happy to have a serious debate in the Scottish economy but this is not that debate and that's down to the Tory motion that's before us today support my amendment in my name I call indeed Lockhart close this debate up to nine minutes please Mr Lockhart we called this debate today because Scotland's economy is facing a crisis as we've heard the economy contracted by 0.2% in the final quarter of last year zero growth in the 12 months up to that period and all sectors of the active economy are in decline all of this at the same time as the wider UK economy is the fastest growing economy in Europe despite this the SNP amendment today refers to the strength of the economy in Scotland is this really what's stronger for Scotland under the SNP means economic decline under performance and stagnation this economic crisis is more than just falling GDP is having a direct impact on people across Scotland as Murdo Fraser highlighted workers in Scotland have had the lowest pay rise of any part of the UK Rachael Hamilton told us about struggling high streets and that Scotland is losing shops faster than any other part of the UK Jamie Greene pointed out that business and consumer confidence is down and Jackie Baillie highlighted that retail sales are falling in a desperate effort to try to salvage some good news that the unemployment is down in Scotland and productivity is up but this would be welcome if it were true because the underlying reasons in closer scrutiny we see that the fall in unemployment has been caused by higher levels of economic inactivity in Scotland and the main reason there's an increase in productivity is because last year less hours were worked that's not positive news last year we're not talking down to Scotland leading organisations share our deep concern about the economy the Scottish Chamber of Commerce warned of a red alert on the economy and are calling for urgent change of government policy and the Fraser Valentine Institute voices serious concerns over the economy one of the key questions this Parliament needs to address is how did we get to this position Scotland has world-class universities world-class cities and a world-class workforce but we find ourselves suffering from long-term economic under-performance and we're facing a recession the simple answer is that after 10 years in power the SNP must take full responsibility for the, I will later the SNP must take full responsibility for this mess and stop blaming others contrary