Good afternoon and welcome to the United States Institute of Peace My name is Johnny Carson, and I am a senior advisor here For those of you who are joining us for the first time The US Institute of Peace was established Approximately 35 years ago by an act of Congress It is a non-partisan institution whose objectives are to prevent, mitigate, and resolve conflict It acts as a think tank, a facilitator, and as an implementer And trying to carry out its global mission of promoting and advancing peace Today's program is focused on Ethiopia And the very remarkable and extraordinary developments that have occurred In that country over the past 15 months Since taking power in March of 2018 Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has undertaken an unprecedented And largely unexpected number of domestic, political, and economic reforms After over 25 years of increasing authoritarian rule under the EPDRF The country's dominant political party Prime Minister Abiy has opened up the country's political space He has lifted Ethiopia's state of emergency Freed hundreds, if not thousands of political prisoners Expanded media freedoms And allowed the opposition political parties and leaders to return home He has also made sweeping changes in the upper levels of government Dismissing many of the country's hard line security and military leaders Appointing women to half of his cabinet And also creating a ministry of peace On the economic side, he has promised to accelerate economic reforms Privatize a number of state-owned companies and enterprises And also to break up METIC The large holding company that was run largely by the governing party He has also sought to strengthen Existing regional alliances And to improve relations with Ethiopia's long-standing enemies And adversaries After meeting with President Isaiah Shafiwaki in Esmara President Abe has restored Ethiopia's diplomatic relations with Eritrea And has agreed to implement a long-stalled agreement between the two countries Ending their 1998-2000 border conflict President Abe's blitzkrieg of reforms Have been widely noted by those in the human rights And the democracy communities They've been widely praised by those in the international community as well But concerns are now growing That the euphoria around Prime Minister Abe's changes Are both masking and unearthing deeper problems inside of Ethiopia A growing number of observers are starting to ask whether Prime Minister Abe is simply moving too fast And whether the reforms he has initiated Are generating instability and security and hostility In Ethiopia's ethnically-based federal system of governance One of the most worrying of concerns is the resentment and resistance That is building up against him and his government in Tigray province The home of Ethiopia's once all-powerful security chief Kachacha Asfa Although three arrest warrants have been issued for Kachacha He remains free and at large in Tigray Where he is being shielded and protected by the regional federal authority Ethnic tensions are also bubbling up in other parts of the country Concern about the pace of change and reform Has led two journalists who recently raised the specter That the political situation in Ethiopia could slowly deteriorate And that the country could experience the same type of ethnic, regional, and religious fragmentation That tore Yugoslavia apart two and a half decades ago As we assess where Ethiopia is going It is sometimes useful to look back to where it has been Today we have a great panel of four former American ambassadors And former colleagues and friends who are going to share their insights About their experiences as the U.S. ambassador in Ethiopia My colleague Ali Virgy will moderate this panel And we'll make more formal introductions of all of our colleagues here But just to say that we have Mark Bass, who was the first fully accredited U.S. ambassador After the fall of the DERG and after the escape of Mngistu to Zimbabwe And we have Ambassador David Shen, who followed him by two tours Ambassador Rih Brazil and Ambassador Don Booth, who many of you know From his more recent position as special envoy to Sudan I'm going to relinquish the podium and turn the microphone and the moderation over to Ali Welcome again to USIP and this discussion on Ethiopia Well thank you Ambassador Johnny Carson for those opening remarks And for setting the scene for what I hope will be a very exciting discussion today Thank you all for coming to Nustalin, welcome And thank you very much to our panel for being so gracious to reflect on your experiences So just to perhaps present to you a bit more in-depth for our audience's purpose I ceded directly to my left Ambassador David Shen, who was in Ethiopia from July 1996 to August 1999 And was also ambassador to Burkina Faso I ceded next to him Ambassador Aurelia Brazil, who was U.S. ambassador to Ethiopia from November 2002 to September 2005 And also served as ambassador to the Federated States of Micronesia and to Kenya And see you next to her, Mark Bass, who we've heard already as the first accredited ambassador after the fall of the DERG But was there also for a year before that as the permanent charge leader affair from 1991 to 1992? My first year was as permanent charge leader, but I was after the DERG Yes, after the DERG, but before you were accredited as ambassador And then Ambassador Donald Booth, who was U.S. ambassador to Liberia and Zambia before going to Ethiopia And then as Ambassador Carson has just said, served as U.S. Special Envoy for Sudan and South Sudan before retiring from the department Thank you all again for joining us today Part of the purpose of this discussion as Ambassador Carson has said is to look back for a couple of reasons Not only because going down memory lane is always an interesting thing to do But because of the recurrence of so many of the themes that these ambassadors dealt with when they were posted in Addis And that Ethiopia confronts today and we will touch on some of those subjects Democratization, elections, political reforms of other kinds as well The economy, the rapprochement with Eritrea These themes have recurred, they've repeated themselves, we'll come back to some of them again This is not to say that we are facing or Ethiopia is facing an exact replica of those circumstances But it is instructive perhaps to see how they were dealt with in the past And also how the United States dealt with Ethiopia in the past And of course there's a long and storied relationship between those two countries as well So with that in mind, I think the first thing we would like to try and do also Given we have this experience of many years of service in many different countries across the world In this panel is just to ask you, perhaps I can start with you Ambassador Bass being chronologically first as well as alphabetically first What do you wish you'd known about Ethiopia before you'd been posted there? I mean partly it's important I think for us to understand We know this is a difficult and sometimes impenetrable country What do you wish you'd known before you had gone out there? You ended up being there very soon, very quick after your last assignment And so what are your reflections on that point? Well I guess I would say that the one thing that I wish I would have understood better When I arrived was the depth of the ethnic identity in Ethiopia I just come from Zaire, now Congo And yeah there's lots of ethnic groups, you know 400, 600, whatever it is in Congo But it's somehow, it's very different from what you find in Ethiopia What we found in Ethiopia when I got there On reflection I think that rather than just be ethnic groups in Ethiopia It's more like certainly the three or four depending on how you want to count to some always Main groups are much more like nations or like states A little bit almost, not quite I don't think France and Germany kind of nation But a little bit maybe like I don't know Massachusetts and Virginia During the time of the revolution and the first 40 years of the United States Where it really mattered, politics was a zero sum game in a lot of ways And I think it was that way in Ethiopia at that time as well And it mattered in the early years of the United States Whether the president came from Massachusetts or the president came from Virginia And I don't think it matters anymore, at least not quite so much in the United States It's still I'm pretty sure matters in Ethiopia And I think that was the one thing that really surprised me Ethnicity was almost a zero sum game Everyone was an Ethiopian but in their heart they were Tigrayan or Oromo or something else And I think when you look at ethnicity as a zero sum game If she gets something that means I lose something and that's not good for a country obviously Ambassador Brazil perhaps I can put the same question to you And what do you wish you'd known before you had gone to Addis? I think I would have benefited from having more time to get to know the diaspora In the US before I went to Ethiopia Because they played an important role in what was happening inside the country And I had not met enough of the diaspora before I left So I think that would be my answer Ambassador Shin, when you were in Addis What surprised you about dealing with the Ethiopians? We'll come to some of the specifics later But just as a general matter of the government being you're interlocutor I think the one thing that I wish I had a better understanding of In terms of doing the job that I was expected to do in Addis Ababa Was to understand the mentality of particularly highland Ethiopians I think there is a distinction to some extent Between those who live in the lowlands and those who live in the highlands On the whole issue of compromise It took a while for me to figure out that compromise came very, very hard to Ethiopians I was there during the beginning of the Eritrean Ethiopian War And it became apparent very quickly that highlanders on both sides of the border Were not very anxious to compromise on any issue And I think as Americans where we do tend to be more willing to give and take on issues We expect others to do the same And when others don't do the same we get very frustrated Or perhaps we don't understand what's going on After a while I figured out that there just were going to be occasions When compromise was not going to happen And you learn to live with it But it was something I probably should have known earlier Ambassador Booth do you share that view That there's this difficulty with compromise You were the ambassador most recently posted in Addis of our panel here You were recently in Addis yourself Do you think that's still the case today, what David Chin is saying? Well I think the Ethiopians If you look at it within the party structure of the EPRDF Which is a coalition of regional parties plus the allies They do compromise, they have their gem-gema sessions The party congresses go on for weeks And it ultimately comes down to the EPRDF party congress But once that decision is made Then policy, at least when I was there Was really locked in concrete And there was no compromise beyond that But within the party they did find ways to compromise And overcome differences I agree that there's a very high degree Of ethnic identity in Ethiopia And that's really what Melis and his colleagues Struggled with after they overthrew the DERG Which was how to try to govern a country And maintain stability so that they could Achieve economic development How to do that without the centrifugal forces Of regionalism, ethnic identity pulling the country apart You've just mentioned Mela Zanaoui Ambassador Donny Carson in his remarks mentioned Abiy Ahmed The current prime minister of Ethiopia Once upon a time Mela Zanaoui was also a Young, bright hope for the future All of you dealt with him during your time in office Ambassador Bass perhaps I can ask you You dealt with Melis in the early years And Ambassador Shane also the relatively early years Of the EPRDF being in power What do you take away from that experience In terms of dealing with both Melis the person The EPRDF as an institution Is there anything that's relevant from that experience That you think is still pertinent today? Ambassador Bass Well I was there as you say I was there at a very kind of unusual time And they had just arrived a month before I arrived And so the EPRDF and Melis and everyone Was finding their way as much as anyone else And I think people forget What was going on in the country at the time I mean there was the former Durg army Had been decommissioned or whatever the appropriate term is And we're sort of wandering around Trying to figure out what they were supposed to do There were lots of refugees There were lots of internally displaced There was a huge humanitarian problem There were, there was a whole issue of the transitional The national transitional conference Or whatever it was called I forget now To set up some kind of government There was the issue that was formally unsettled But actually settled of Eritrea What was the relationship going to be Between Eritrea and Ethiopia And so I think, I mean I spent I was really lucky I saw Melis as often as I needed to And probably saw him two and three times a week Which I'm guessing doesn't happen anymore And it's not because I was brilliant It's just because it was the way things were Embassy was small The government wasn't really structured That was where the wisdom was coming from Such as it was I suspect and I hope that over the years And it sounds like now in the present time Government has been revamped There are people at mid-level who you can talk to In the party and elsewhere So, well, what was I going to say? I just lost my train of thought But anyway, I thought I lost my train of thought Yeah, thanks Maybe we'll go to Ambassador Shin I mean you were also there in the relatively early part Of Melis' time in the EPRDF And there's still lessons that are relevant today That's difficult to say Melis was a very unusual individual The relationship that I had with Melis Was I thought a good one He was probably the only person in the Ethiopian government That you could go in to make your request And get a straightforward answer immediately Without having to worry about Whether it was going to happen or not Everyone else you met with in the government You made a request If they didn't like the request They would tell you We'll get back to you We'll raise it with the minister We'll raise it with Melis We'll do something else And it took me another six months to figure out That that was their way of saying no We don't agree And we're not going to go along with it But in the meantime I wasted an awful lot of time Waiting for answers to things that never happened Melis was not that way He obviously was more confident He was in charge He was fully in charge During the time that I was there Which put him in a very different situation I don't think you have had anyone In power since Melis Who has been in that situation Holly Merriam certainly was not He was pretty much at the mercy Of other members of the EPRDF I'm not even convinced that Abiy Ahmed is completely in that position The EPRDF is breaking down as a party He I think has a lot of respect More respect than any other Particular person in the country But he's not in the same situation That Melis was in So I'm not sure that What was going on during the Melis period Is really that relevant today Would you agree with that, Mr. Brazil? Not exactly I sort of picked up on what Don said About the way decision making is made I think people do I found Ethiopians very much like Japanese I'll start there And I served in Japan And what I mean by that is that Decision making in both countries Japan and Ethiopia is very slow It's very slow to develop that consensus That a lot of people have to talk to each other It's an internal process But once the decision is made Then implementation can come fairly quickly So I was very comfortable with The Ethiopian approach to things Because it reminded me of being in Japan In that sense And there's also practice in both countries Of telling you what you want to hear On the surface and telling you what's underneath In both Japan and Ethiopia And figuring that out is helpful So I found my time there That the party or EPRDF people And other people were evolving In their thinking Although it looked very glacial Can you elaborate what you mean by The evolution of that? Well, I think they loosened up economically When I arrived I'm not talking about the economic system But when I arrived there were 13 million Ethiopians facing starvation There was a drought And unlike the DERC They weren't trying to cover it up So I think the U.S. Played a huge role at that time To provide food To ensure it came into the country And was pre-placed into different parts Before the rains came, et cetera, et cetera But I think we worked with the government On that to create the understanding Of the donor countries as to what was going on And then to refine the kind of requests That should be made And then after that sort of period We had passed We worked with the government to suggest That they have an international conference To talk about how to deal with future Such incidents Because they were coming In any event And coming faster On the economic side And the political side I think there were some decisions To begin to loosen up On the political side a bit I think the elections of 2005 Surprised the EPRDF I think they felt people in Ethiopia The Ethiopians had a better understanding Of what they had been trying to accomplish Since they took over from the DERC And I think that surprised them And made them clamp down Picking up on what David said I think as an American We tend to go in and say Why don't you let the people have a demonstration And blow off some steam And that would relieve the situation Just from our approach here And the answer I was getting back from Ethiopian Officials was no You don't do that here If you allow people to have The slightest little demonstration You're going to have an armed uprising Or continued demonstration So that the reasoning Was sort of different from the Happy American who comes in and says Let people blow off steam So I'll stop there And we'll come back to the 2005 elections In a moment Because there's a lot more to talk about there But I first want to ask you and Master Booth Coming back to this question of Melis Zinaoui and the EPRDF And any parallels that might exist With Aby Ahmad You were there when Melis had already Been in power almost 20 years The later years of his rule And the transition to Prime Minister Haile Mariam What reflections do you have from That period and do you see any parallels Or any things that might be relevant To interpreting or understanding How Ethiopian politics plays out today Well I think we have to understand Melis in a bit of a historical context David was there when he was Fully in charge But we have to remember that At the time of the war with Eritrea There was a major internal upheaval And Melis kept his job really by a whisker And I think that shook him up It shook up a lot of the hardline TPLF leaders as well Then they had the 2005 election And the post-election violence And that's why going into 2010 When I arrived about a month before The election I didn't really understand The depth of paranoia that the EPRDF leadership had About a repeat of the 2005 Post-election violence And that's why when we would talk About free and fair elections All they would hear is these foreigners Are trying to incite violence And overthrow us And that really carried through In how they dealt with us In that period they wouldn't allow The election They two weeks before the election Issued a decree that all foreign diplomats And international NGO personnel Had to remain within ATIS And let's give an explicit permission to travel On the few days before the election We had had a number of people We were still planning to have Be up country Not to be election observers But to be up country And Melis called me outraged And said he would have them arrested His spies Foreign minister Sayum Called me the day of the election To caution that there would be serious Consequences in the bilateral relationship If we issued any negative statement About their election And of course we did issue a statement That did not see it as being Totally free and fair And there were consequences in the relationship So dealing with them I mean at that point they were really Very, very prickly But Melis I always found to be David said very straightforward No meant no, yes meant yes And no answer meant no He told me that I didn't have to wait six months To figure it out myself He told me that early on And he was very much into details He was a detail guy You could sit down And have great conversations with him And but he was always very suspicious Of foreigners and their motivations And I think if you look back Over Ethiopian history There is a basis to understand Why there is that suspicion So for people that are dealing with the issue today And policy makers I mean what's the relevance of I mean that's what happened You've described what happened What's the relevance of that To understanding today's situation Well I think to understand today's situation We see Prime Minister Abbey Making all these changes And most of them we really like The opening with Eritrea The release of political prisoners The opening up of the press But with this notion That we can somehow go in And really help him I think we have to be a little bit cautious And that there are limits As to how much advice They're going to take from outsiders They will listen But they will inevitably do it their own way One example I can give of that Was when I finally did convince Mellis That their logistics system in the country Was really undermining the economy It was like five times more expensive Well twice as expensive to get A 20 foot container from Dubai to Addis Than it was to get it from Dubai to Kabul At the height of the war in Afghanistan So he indeed looked into that He brought in some experts And they looked at their logistics system And their answer was We're going to combine Three inefficient state owned enterprises Into one giant state owned enterprise Which became hugely inefficient And resulted in costs going up And backlogs coming from the port So even when you can get them to Agree with you there's a problem And they may listen to you a little bit On the solution But again, ultimately I think they'll come up with a solution That's their own Several of you have mentioned Elections that you were either present for Or preparing for Or when Ethiopia was preparing for it I want to quote some of your earlier words From your very useful association For diplomatic studies or histories Which we have from Basta Shin In Brazil and Bas David Shin, you had said About the 1996 elections That the major issue Was the democratization Of the Ethiopian political system And where the government Was taking the country on this question So you were saying that about 1996 That easily could have been said Or written today Ambassador Mark Bas You said about the run up to the elections I talked every chance I got to the government About making the playing field level And giving the opposition a chance Again, words that wouldn't be Necessarily out of place today I'll come back to Ambassador Brazil in the 2005 elections In a moment But I want to ask you both In terms of your views On the democratization process And given what you've just said Ambassador Booth about taking advice Or how receptive they are to it The 2020 elections That are upcoming in Ethiopia And seen as a very important Policy priority both for Ethiopia And for Americans dealing with Ethiopia What are the lessons from those Earlier democratic processes Do you think? Ambassador Booth Well, we actually didn't have an election There actually was an election When I was there But just getting ready for the first one The only election I actually had anything to do with Was the Eritrean referendum Right Which was a little bit We were responsible for Eritrean At the time too But the domestic elections Were approaching you Yes, they were approaching Yes, for sure I mean, I think it's really about the process I mean, it's obviously hard Ethiopians have to do it themselves They need to take ownership Of the process But I think we need to do all that we can To encourage them to make the process As open, as fair, as free as we can This includes things like Free press and an election board That actually allows opposition To campaign and trying to limit Government use of, I don't know Fertilizer to make sure that Farmers vote for the right party Whatever the right party is I think we have to really work On the process I think if we go in there and say This election must be fair and free We're going to be disappointed And it's not going to really help I think it's not easy to have Fair and free elections We don't have, arguably, fair and free elections In the United States A lot better than other places So I think it's really important To work on the process And I think we need, again Going back to what Don said You need to have the government on board Obviously, you can't go out into the country But I think we can use The whole international community When I was there We were doing it not for the elections But for humanitarian assistance And we had a big international group That sat down and decided how we could do this As a group and make our resources Most effective And I think you can probably do that On the election side as well Best of shit I think it's important to understand More than 2,000 years of Ethiopian history There's only been one election In the country that has ever approached What we would consider In western liberal democracy Is a free and fair election And that was 2005 And that one was also very troubled The opposition, some in the opposition Claimed they actually won the election I'm not sure I agree with that But anyway, that's their claim I think the lesson from all of this Is with this 2,000-plus years of history Even with a new leader Who is certainly saying and doing A lot of the right things And moving the country towards What I would define is More of a western liberal democracy It's going to be very hard to overcome This background And I think that's one of the things That Abiy Ahmed is encountering right now How do you move forward With all of these good thoughts That he has when one You don't have a sense of shit In order to even base an election on In terms of dividing up the country electorally I'm not totally convinced That it's going to make a lot of sense To have national elections in 2020 The country may not be ready To really do a decent election in 2020 On the other hand, if you keep postponing it You keep frustrating people So there's a lot of history That has to be taken into account But in both of those answers I think we've heard things That wouldn't be out of place Having a free press Having folks on the process Recognizing that expectations Have to be realistic At the same time, every election That you all dealt with Similar sentiments were expressed And Ambassador Rizil, you said in the past That you don't think you can impose a democracy From the outside You have to see what's organically developing And encourage those developments Towards democracy Again, that would be something Which would fit very much With the current situation You were the ambassador During those 2005 elections That David Shins just mentioned There is still that controversy About what happened But beyond the controversy I guess the important question For people to think about today There are many Ethiopians Most Ethiopians in fact Who are alive today Don't have much of a recollection Of that 2005 process They're younger And they weren't voters at the time As David has said This was a competitive election Do you see lessons from that experience? Are there things that you feel From the outside Might have been different Or could have been done differently Do you think the Ethiopian system Has changed significantly Or sufficiently perhaps To allow for Either something similar to occur Or something different to occur Do you see the landscape? Well, I think in 2005 We at the U.S. And also other diplomatic entities Established observers Worked with other outside NGOs Talked to the opposition Talked to the government As I said earlier I think the government Was very surprised by the outcome To the opposition Was that Particularly for Addis You won Take the seat Take the position Sit in that seat that you won The opposition didn't want to do that The opposition had its strategy As David said to say They won everything And the government said Of course it won So you had that standoff But you had a much more open process I would hope that That Ethiopia can continue Evolving that way I'm not sure I was there happily in Ethiopia At the 100th year anniversary Of our diplomatic relations We had them in 1903 And I was there in 2003 And I said publicly, privately Every chance I got After a hundred years There is nothing that we Cannot talk to each other about And that included human rights That included elections That included every issue That we might have come up In our relationship And we did that with everyone And we did it publicly As well as privately I think for the aftermath Of the 2005 election And I happened to be chair At that time of the Ambassadors group of donor countries I think by our public statements Which we drafted And got other donors To sign up on I think we prevented much more Violence and a breakdown Of the system That might be self-serving I'm not sure But we certainly were very much Concerned about the loss of life And a continuation of that So we tried to dampen it down And I think we did succeed in that But we didn't damp down the arrests The subsequent arrests And detentions and exiles And other things that happened After I left But preceded the preparations For the next election Because the EPRDF decided It was not going to be that Surprised again I don't know if they've evolved I mean, as Mark said 243 years of American history We're still evolving Certainly when the Founding documents were written here I was not included as a black person I was not included as a woman It took us over 100 years To get to women And black people still aren't included As far as I'm concerned Sufficiently So we're still evolving As a democracy And Ethiopia has to Organically water The little shoots of democracy Coming up there in their own way In my view, we can't impose it From the outside I've never been in favor of that Ambassador Booth You've already talked about The legacy as far as it Affected your time Of the 2005 elections There was also, of course, An election after you left In 2015 And now we're looking toward 2020 I suppose one of the Important differences Between 2005, 10, 15 Versus the upcoming one Is the status of the EPRDF That is different In some way Maybe it's difficult for us To say exactly how it's different But do you feel that Given the change of the party And given what we've said earlier About the importance of How the party And its chairman at the time Was the interlocutor Was the person who could say This is how we're going to do things What are the implications of that For both, let's say broader democracy promotion goals That are shared by the United States And other like-minded countries But also for Ethiopia itself Well, after 2005, the lesson Really learned was Don't be surprised again And what they did was They really empowered the party Now, my understanding really At least when I was there Was that the leadership In Mellis and Company Really relied upon the party To govern the country I can recall one meeting Where Mellis actually complained He had inherited this imperial bureaucracy Which was so ossified and unresponsive And very risk averse And not what he needed To really change the country So there was this reliance on the party And that's the structural problem That we saw play out in 2010 When they won all but two seats In the parliament in 2015 When they won all the seats In the parliament The problem is which local official Which war of the chief, Kabele chief Is going to lose their district When they have all the levers of power In their hand And the answer is none of them Are willing to So going into 2020 I think you've got an interesting dynamic Because as I understand it Recent conversations that I've had With a number of Ethiopian interlocutors That Abiy is basically You put it I think earlier Allowing the EPRDF to atrophy He's not using it as really the power tool But he doesn't have much of a governmental basis To rely upon either So this hammer lock on power That the EPRDF had Through all of its local cadres And all the allied parties If they go into an election in 2020 I think the dynamic could be very different And so what I think really is needed Is they need to figure out If they're not going to have That party lock going into the elections How do you need to change election rules So that you might actually have A more equitable outcome Representative outcome of what people want And they have to address that structural problem And I understand there's consideration Underway of rewriting the electoral law And all of that I think that's going to be a very important area To try to engage with Not that they're going to take our advice Wholesale by any means But it's a critical area to engage in Could I jump in and say also for 2020 You'll have more people who are literate More people, more social media access And so that's the difference That didn't exist in 2005 Certainly for the election And more people more generally I mean it's a bigger population Yes, a bigger population So that you have that dynamic as well In terms of what information people have And how they plan to vote and act on it Can I just follow up on that point a minute I think that's absolutely correct I mean one of the things that really struck me When I was there was How profoundly rural Ethiopia was And of course this was before The internet was just kind of coming in And there was no social media and all that And villages and regions and so on Were not exactly cut off But were really, really on their own To a large degree and which gave if you want Power to the local party To the local ethnic group to whatever it was And I think that now that that is being Slowly, probably dissipated With the advent of social media With more literacy, with more knowledge About what's going on in the world And remember that in my time They had just come out of a horrendous war And all of that entails So I think there are some Possible bright lights That might lead to a better outcome I'm not trying to be Pollyanna-ish about this I think there's huge issues yet But I think we're in a different Ethiopia Than certainly what I was there But given these changes in the context That you've just described Do the policy prescriptions Therefore thinking about it from a U.S. point of view Should they also evolve Ambassador Booth, you just mentioned The electoral law But beyond the law Are there other things you feel Could be done or need to be paid Attention to? I mean obviously the sort of Template is there But are there things that need to Be more responsive to the changing Context? Particularly if the party is fractured Particularly if you have the Uncertainty of what's going on in the regions Ambassador Shane or Ambassador Booth You have views on that Certainly some of these things Have already happened Political prisoners have been released That's obviously a good thing The media has opened up significantly The government is in the process They're not there yet But they're in the process Of making life somewhat easier For non-governmental organizations In civil society This is all good At the same time This takes the lid off of the pot And it means that things can boil over That didn't used to boil over Because there was so much pressure From security forces from the government To prevent these things from happening So somewhere in there There's a happy medium Where you let all of these good things From a western standpoint happen But that they don't get out of control On the other And the one thing that seems To be getting out of control Is at the local level Particularly the ethnic relationships And these are just creating problems All over the country Without much regard for what The central government is doing about it Or can do about it And this is the worrisome part And they're not confined to just One or two areas They're unfortunately happening Throughout much of Ethiopia today And I suppose on top of that I mean in any country where There is multiple ethnic groups There's the potential for ethnic clashes But what is perhaps different In Ethiopia is that you also have An explicitly ethnically federal state I mean that's how it's set up In the constitution So the big question And I'm glad you mentioned What you just did Ambassador Shin And Ambassador Busk Thank you for bringing up The rural nature of this Because I think that also feeds into this But the big question here is In some respect Do you think ethnic federalism Is sustainable? Is this still a model That can work? And how does that look then In terms of all of the other Prescriptions or actions That may be necessary to pursue I mean it's a big question But it's an important one For the country I think it's the fundamental question That Ethiopians need to address Because if they don't address The structure of their country They can't have a successful election They can't move the economy forward Security will continue to deteriorate You already have 3% of the population Who are internally displaced Because of ethnic tensions Displacements I personally think that A federal structure in a nation That has very different identities For its different components Makes the most sense Now most opposition parties In Ethiopia, at least while I was there Their main complaint was This was a divide and rule tactic By the minority to grants If you keep everybody separate Then you can rule Well, what's the alternative? I mean if you look at the history Of Ethiopia It's a series of strong rulers At the center Usually from the MRA region But the Highlands Who managed to cobble together A kingdom or an empire And then Maybe when the ruler is a bit Weakened or there's a weak successor You have rebellion from the periphery Or attacks from the outside And it all collapses And then you need to wait For another strong leader To put Ethiopia back together again This is a fundamental issue That I think Melis was grappling with I was told that there were many many Late night, all night sessions He had with Huntington Of a clash of civilizations fame Discussing how do you structure A government in this country And what came out of it was Ethnic federalism Now how do Ethiopians tell me Well we should just have a normal federal structure Like the United States does And I say well How do you draw state boundaries? I mean those have already been drawn By long history of ethnic groups So you know ethnic federalism Is probably the least worst option In my mind for long term stability In Ethiopia Just like I had one little historic point to that I think that when I think what you said is actually Is absolutely on the money When Melis was first in Otis Alba Had the transitional conference going on The national conference going on He clearly feared a dissent in the Civil War He clearly feared that somehow I don't know the Aromas wouldn't be happy Or the Amharas wouldn't be happy Or something would happen And he knew that the last thing Ethiopia needed after the long war That they just got over with was another war And so I think he did kind of fall on this Maybe just out of expediency Maybe it was the least bad choice And I think it made a lot of sense At the time I'm not convinced it makes sense 30 years later, but here we are I might just add I had a meeting with Melis After I had been ambassador It was probably in 2006 Maybe 2007 And I asked him specifically If he was convinced that ethnic federalism Was the right policy for Ethiopia And his response was kind of interesting Almost typical Melis He said, look, Mr. Ambassador We tried authoritarianism We tried imperial rule We tried communism under the derg We tried military rule And none of them worked So we've got to try this one now And his final remark was And I'm convinced it will work I, at the time, was not totally convinced That this was the right approach I'm even a little bit less convinced today But his response was an interesting one That we're going to try something different Well, I would speak up, too I think to me it was a very practical decision They had to make at the beginning Of the process Because they did have armed groups Around the country And you're trying to knit people together I traveled to all of the Nine regions when I was there To find out what was going on And I found at that time That the local officials were Feeling much more empowered They could speak their own languages In that region They were getting some budget money From the federal government And they could decide how to allocate it So there was this sense That we are not going to have The central government telling us What to do anymore We've got some modicum of control Now in our region And I applauded that The second thing I'd say is When I got to Ethiopia The first questions I asked of many But I'd consistently asked it Of Ethiopians and anybody I met Was how do you put pressure on an Ethiopian That was my question I got various answers But I decided that Ultimately putting all the answers together That Ethiopians really like To operate off of principle That while there are some people In Ethiopia who would like transactional diplomacy It's really principle And so I think if they continue to have Discussions internally about principles The principles of a free press Or the principle of ethnic federalism Of what does that mean In terms of the principle of being Voluntarily a part of something bigger That principle So if you can couch things as principles I think that might open up A discussion in an interesting way And that would move things forward too Could I just add that To caveat my remark about ethnic federalism Probably still being the best solution It doesn't mean it's the ethnic federalism That I saw in operation in 2010 to 2013 At that point The security forces, the security service The secret service was all dominated By one ethnic group They didn't like to hear that, but it was true And so a more equitable sharing of power Within that structure I think could alleviate a lot of the shortcomings of it And perhaps even a looser federation Is what might work But right now what you have is parts of the country You have local regional nationalism Rearing its head And not even the regional governments Being completely in control of some parts of their regions This is particularly true in Amhara and Oramia Some people would say that is a looser, weaker federation The center is weaker You've got this This is the result of what's happening outside So how do you reconcile that problem Of what's going on in the regions With what you've just said Well, the other part of the equation And I think we'll get to this Is the economy With the population growing the way it is We have to accommodate, I think it's 2 to 3 million people a year And newcomers into jobs Growing the economy was frankly In developing the country Was what Melis and EPRDF really focused on After the 2010 election They breathed a huge sigh of relief That they had weathered this They were in control politically And now they could really concentrate And they had their growth and transformation plan Number one, and it's been followed by number two They took that opportunity to mobilize the country To do what had been unthinkable in the past Which was built a dam on the Blue Nile Using just Ethiopian resources Because they realized no foreign country Was going to cross Egypt and put money into it They, the single-minded focus Was on economic development And this goes with the philosophy And I'm not saying I agree with it But I want to explain it briefly Revolutionary democracy and the developmental state You need revolutionary democracy Which basically means one-party rule In order to maintain sufficient stability And a sufficient focus on economic development So that you could create a middle class Which they viewed as a precondition For liberal democracy and free and fair elections And the idea was once you got that To that middle class That then sort of in the communist theology The state would wither away And you'd have this wonderful utopia It would be liberal democracy And people would be rich enough Smart enough, educated enough Empowered enough to be able to make The fundamental political change in the country That was the rationale that they were operating under During the period I was there Ambassador Shin, do you think that logic still applies? I mean the developmental state is still Effectively the framework I mean it is perhaps changing But for all of this time that Mellis was there Heilemann was there That was the mantra You had the very high official growth rates At least in the very visible economic development At least in some parts of the country I mean how much does the economic situation Effect the quality of political reforms Do you think that could be contemplated now? Well certainly the economy has a major effect On the political future of Ethiopia I'm not sure that the template Is the same now I think it was the same under Heilemann I think basically the economy was operating Under Mellis autopilot after Mellis's death But now that Heilemann is gone And aviamidism in charge I think he has his own ideas He and certain people around him Have their own ideas about how to move forward I think they probably want to see High economic growth rates As Ethiopia has claimed it has had For the last 15 years or so I was at a session yesterday With an Ethiopian opposition representative Who was sort of making fun of Or poking fun at Ethiopia's 11.1% annual growth rate For all of the last 15 years Doesn't change it's 11.1% each year What he said is not totally true The government doesn't claim That it's been 11.1% for every year For the last 15 years But the point is that they have been claiming A very high GDP growth rate Probably higher than it really is But the fact remains it's still been very good Even if it's in the single digits It's in the high single digits And that's very impressive And I think Ethiopia and all of the Economic leaders in the country Who are responsible for its economic growth Deserve credit for that That's not sustainable At some point it's going to become A more moderate growth rate And I think Abiy Ahmed is committed to that But whether he's going to Follow the same pattern I doubt I see signs Of certain changes in his economic policy That is opening the economy up To some extent not entirely Foreign banking is still not allowed in the country There's total control of IT and the internet So there are some really serious issues Out there yet But I do see change coming And the question is Can he keep it all together? And what's your answer to that? I mean the rhetoric of change is there It can, I'm not saying it will I don't know if you share that Well I would throw out demographics as well And demographics really is the future That's already happened So with 50% of the population below The age of 15 You know the kind of bulge you're going to have You know the kind of jobs you're going to have to create And one of the things I've been working on With diaspora members And others is to Start an American university in Africa Cited in Addis Because I think you have to educate The people for different jobs You can't export folks to other countries With ease any longer After recent experiences globally And so they've got to Provide that educational foundation To give jobs to the people So yes there will be changes And I don't think they'll ever Well I don't think it'll in my lifetime Get the state out of the economy I think they see a role there That they will retain But they will loosen up And they could do it successfully I could just, sorry I could just add I visited Ethiopia five years ago And took my family around All through the country And through the countryside Which I hadn't done since I'd been there As ambassador and the one thing That struck me was that the economic Activity in the countryside Was much much greater than it was When I was there and it was Nearly zero when I was there So you know you're coming from a small Start but I think That we can't forget agriculture I mean everyone wants to Be an entrepreneur and be the next Apple of Ethiopia or whatever it is But I think we can't forget Agriculture particularly with The population situation Population demographic that is coming Down the, or is already there And by that I don't just mean You know growing teff but I mean The kind of things that I saw Which were food processing And flower plants and I know Some of it's got foreign connections And may not be all that much Value added but I think you need to Work on getting those sort of things In agricultural areas Where people can get jobs That use the agricultural resources Of the country and that bring more Value added to the country not Necessarily to Chinese or other Foreign firms Whatever. I mean just a couple of weeks ago The US government supported this Investment form specifically on Ethiopia I wonder If you've heard Ambassador Booth If you have a view as to Given the realities of demographic Realities, the structural realities Of the economy, what Ambassador Just said about the need for Considering that Ethiopia is much More than its urban areas as well At the same time we know that it Is rapidly urbanizing What makes sense In your mind for US policy Which is also explicitly Is now on promoting trade investment On economic ties Coming to perhaps More of a prominent position than they Have been in the past. Well again I'll go back to structural Problem and I talked about the Political structural problem There's also an economic structural Problem that basically relates to The political system which is You have too many state-owned Enterprises, too much of Military engaged in Massive projects Like run by the Sugar Corporation Which were huge money losers And The problem you have now is You can't just go and privatize Things Because what Foreigner is going to come in To run something in Ethiopia To sell to Ethiopians for the most Part. I'm not talking about Manufacturing in Ethiopia for export But to deal with the local market Which is primarily a local market If you don't have any foreign exchange That they can then use to Repatriate their profits. So I think structurally one of The things the government needs to work on And perhaps we can lend some Ideas in that regard Is how to sort of begin To demonopolize, de-oligopolize The economy Allow more Competition, allow Ethiopian Entrepreneurship to flourish. To really frustrate me when People would say we need to teach The Ethiopians entrepreneurship. I said have you ever been in Washington? You just Ethiopians are Naturally entrepreneurial. So Let's forget about teaching them how to do that. Let's give them the opportunity to do that. You know, one of the things That strikes me I visited a Turkish textile factory Where they were manufacturing Garments for export. And the biggest complaint was There's no supporting infrastructure. So I had to bring in Some of my own workmen to do The type of building that I needed For my factory. Of course I had to import All my machinery because none of it's manufactured Locally. But I then had To create my own Cardboard box manufacturing company Because there was nothing locally That I could just buy from. There was, I had to in effect Set up my own bus company because There was no one that I could really rely On to provide transportation for my workers. This all adds to the cost of production And it deters foreign investors. You add to that the fact that the banking sector Remains 100% Ethiopian. The idea of getting international Firms to go in there when they Can't deal with their own bank Is something that's Determined not only to western firms But also to Chinese firms. And the inefficiencies In the telecom sector Also mean very difficult to do business. I mean when I was there as Envoy for Sudan, South Sudan Several times the internet was closed Once because of the state of emergency Once ostensibly because the National University exams had been stolen So the entire internet Was shut down for days at a time. How do you process Credit card transactions when The internet shut down? How do you make Airplane reservations? How do you Make orders, conduct business? This was a real problem. Now in discussions I had with There was a lot of focus he had on Protecting the small Holder. The small Mom and Pop business. The small subsistence farmer. Because he realized if he took any policy Actions that would put them out of work He'd have a revolution on his hand. So how do you open up the Economy Without harming those interests Is a really delicate Question. But the key thing I think Is to break up the monopolies And the oligopolies. Is that something that you think applies Outside of Addis as well As an approach? I mean I want to extend this Also beyond the economy. I mean You talked about the importance of getting Out and going around and you went to All nine zones. I think everyone Here has also commented in the past On the importance of understanding What's going on outside of Addis Beyond Addis. Partly I suppose the question is Now with the difficulties that are Persisting And emerging in Regions beyond Addis Understanding what's happening Whether it's with the economy, whether It's with local politics, whether it's With the security situation. How can one do this effectively And break through this Addis bubble. Do you have Thoughts on that? I don't know. Ambassador Brazil. Well we had programs USAID programs When I was there that were Aimed at creating markets Outside of Addis, out in the Rural areas. Working on transportation linkages So that people could move their goods To a larger Town That kind of thing. So you are, at that time We were starting sort of at very basic Levels. But we were having some result. I think Outsiders need sort of sustained Programs, not sort of the flavor Of the day that might come in That will have Some effect because the people there Are very smart. They catch on Very quickly. You can have training And then people can run With what they learn. Keep it up to date. And they work on the national Government to To Remove the structural problems. But we had AID programs Around the country. Ambassador Shin, what are your Views on how to Get beyond the Addis bubble and try To understand what's going on, whether It's relevant to economic development Or indeed other fields.  I have a question of what has Happened in the American Foreign Service as a result of security Problems, largely stemming From 9-11. I was, I finished my time In Ethiopia in 1999. So I was there during the attacks On the U.S. Embassies and the Arabian Dar es Salaam, which Started to have a significant impact Upon the ability of embassy personnel To get around countries In Africa. It got much worse after 9-11. I was retired at that point, but I Get back to Ethiopia every year or Two and have a pretty good feel For how much movement there is By embassy staff in Ethiopia and Other embassies in Africa where I sense a very similar problem. By and large, The security Tail is wagging the diplomacy Dog these days. And people are simply not Around to the extent they used to Get around. I made a point of getting Out of the embassy for at least One week out of every month Traveling all over the country By road, usually by road, occasionally By aircraft. It made a huge difference. It's the only way you can Really learn a country as Complex as Ethiopia. It's to get out and meet with People constantly. I think in our Foreign Service That is becoming increasingly hard To do, and I think it's Not necessary that we Have such strict security Regulations. There's an added Problem in terms of Ethiopia in That they're getting so many high-level Visitors out there that the senior Staff are just consumed by Handholding every Tom Dick and Harry who wants to say He has met with the prime Minister of Ethiopia. So that's A problem I didn't have so much of. But that's nothing compared to What people get out there today.  And you're also Having to deal with a security problem Which is totally inexcusable And it's not going to change Until someone at a very high level In the administration decides to change it. I was at a meeting of the Academy In diplomacy two days ago And they have taken this on as an Issue on Capitol Hill to try to Get changes in the ability of Embassy personnel to move more freely Around countries globally, not just in Africa. Ambassador Booth, I want to ask you the same Question. It's always refreshing to Hear unvarnished views from People who are free to speak. Not only did you serve In Ethiopia after 9-11 After Dar-Salaam and Nairobi, But also after the bombings That occurred in Addis. Coordinated attacks That happened, and of course That the scourge of terrorism Is always sort of lingering. What's your view? There's that reality of what the State Department's security Restrictions are, etc. But in terms of understanding or Trying to understand what's going On, and particularly now, you've Just been to Ethiopia. How do you effectively understand What's going on beyond Addis and Beyond, say, the Prime Minister's level? Well, let me say first of all that David Certainly said a very high bar, and I Was quite aware of his extensive travels In Ethiopia when I went out, and I Was not able to do a week a month By any means, but I did get to all Ten regions and many of them several Times. What I found was It was repeatedly going back and Engaging the key people In a region that made the Especially I focused on the Somali Region, because it was one of the Areas that was most unstable Where we had the most human rights Concerns because of the continuing Conflict with the ONLF. And I think my multiple visits Out there engaging the Somali President actually did begin To pay off, and that there was A degree of trust and real Dialogue that we were able to Establish. But it's repetitive, It's being out there. And I believe that just flying in And flying out is less desirable Than actually at least going one Way on the ground, so you truly Get a sense of Ethiopia and its Diversity. I found that the security Problem was not so much in Keeping us from going out, And maybe I benefited from the Fact that I knew any time I Went someplace that the Ethiopian Government was going to make sure it Was safe.  But the problem really was Allowing Ethiopians to access Our embassy. And when we put Our information resources, our Library, et cetera, behind those Walls, it truly is a Deterrent. But getting out Is absolutely critical to Understanding Ethiopia. And I think Now the problem is And what I've heard is that Because of the increasing Insecurity throughout the country That that's what's deterring More embassy travel as much as All the visitors that David Mention. But there are places Now where it used to be you Couldn't go near the Eritrean Border. And if you went to the far South, then you had to make You could go. The embassy Officers would go, I would go. But now that's being restricted More and more. But at the same time reporting on This insecurity, understanding this Insecurity is a key programmatic Diplomatic objective, right? So how does one do that if we can't Go there because it's too insecure To go there?  If you have views. One of the things I was very Curious about is the The number of long-serving Personal services contractors. One of whom was married to an Ethiopian from a marginal region. And so these gentlemen enabled Me to have a really good Understanding of those particular Regions. Was able to introduce me To people in those regions. They would always travel with me When I went to the regions of their Expertise, which was Gambella And Somalia. And I encourage To those political advisers. The AID director was not always happy That I was using them for those purposes. But I found that to be very effective. You would think the local staff At the embassy might also be helpful, But frankly they're all from Addis. Or just about all from Addis. So it's not particularly helpful in that regard. I should mention meeting with Women as well. In Addis and also around the country. Women know what's going on Usually better than The men sometimes. And I think So whenever I went out I met with women And men I remember one woman was hosting A luncheon in the Somali region For me and she turned out to be To have control of the Cot trade So we could talk economics And Social issues and other things Because she controlled it herself And her husband was there And she didn't seem to be doing Much of that Maybe Chewing cat I'm not sure But anyway she was very sharp. So I just throw out that women Are people to meet And I always took a group of people From the embassy with me Not a large delegation But people from different sections Who might have business. Gambela was one area we went to After they had some violence And that seemed to be a little Sensitive with the government But I agree the government Make sure that you were safe We were safe traveling around But there I could talk to the people Involved in all sides of the violence As well as the women To find out sort of what had happened And what might continue happening And also cross-border From Sudan Ambassador Busch, you wanted to add something to that? I was going to sort of state the obvious By my three colleagues, but obviously It's great to get out The best thing to do is for the embassy And embassy personnel and diplomats To talk directly to people in the regions But if you can't do that because of security Because of overwhelming Numbers of visitors from Washington Or whatever the problem is The obvious source or resource Is as we mentioned People like aid officers or NGO officers Or you can't maybe influence Policy in the region, but at least And you get the other part of it You can find out what's going on in the region Or regions And I mean It seems to me that that's a resource We shouldn't ignore Can we turn to foreign relations For a moment And specifically perhaps Eritrea The rapprochement with Eritrea Has been one of the Perhaps the most important Achievements of Abbey's Tenure so far We have people here Who were Ambassadors before Things went badly with Eritrea And after I want to ask first David Sheehan and Mark Bass Both of you were there before the war With Eritrea The relations in those years were Not bad, they maybe weren't perfect Between Addis and Asmara But they were there, Afarwarki As Ambassador Carson has mentioned People very much there At that time as well Are there Lessons from those dealings And how relations Functioned between Asmara And Addis in those years That are relevant in this new era Of rapprochement do you think Why don't you go first That last part of it's a kicker Yeah Well my first two years there We didn't have an embassy in Asmara 25 times because we were responsible For what was going on up there as well So I got to know Isaias pretty well And I think That Isaias Eritrea is Like the big brother of the Tigrayans I think They helped the Tigrayans from their point of view Win the war and all of a sudden the Tigrayans Won and they had this big Ethiopia Which they didn't really expect to get When they started out And I think Isaias was not happy To have as much influence In what was going on in Ethiopia As he felt he should have Both Ethiopians and Eritreans Are stubborn Nala certainly wasn't going to be treated Like anyone's little brother And he was after all President of the much bigger Prime Minister of the much bigger country Much more populist and so on And so I think that's an issue But not an issue I think that's Something of it I think what it can tell us for now Is harder I'm not sure it likes this I think Isaias is erratic And it's hard to know What he's going to do at any time And therefore It's hard I think To have any certainty About what's going to go I think what is happening now is the right thing You've got to have exchange, you've got to have Open borders, you've got to try to Work but I don't think it's going to be easy necessarily But maybe with the Tigrayans less In The Not in the Prime Minister's office Maybe things will be better And following along chronologically I was there before The war broke out in May of 1998 and I was there Throughout most of the war And it allows me to make a point Which isn't the one you were raising But I think it's an important point To emphasize the degree to which That war changed The U.S.-Ethiopian relationship And the Eritrean-U.S. relationship It totally transformed it And almost overnight The U.S.-Ethiopian Relationship had been on a steady Upward trend From Mark's time until May of 1998 All of us who were Serving there during that period benefited From this and there was a very Much of an improving relationship There would be little blips ups and downs In the relationship but nothing significant That war broke out And within a month or six weeks The U.S.-Ethiopian Relationship was in the tank It had just Become very difficult Almost overnight And the same happened in Eritrea With the Eritrean-American relationship And the reason was really quite simple Each side Nellis for his side And Isaias for his Felt that the United States Was supporting the other side It's this old business. If you're not 100% for me, you must be against me And both Nellis and Isaias And the leadership elements Of both countries felt that way So immediately I in Ethiopia And my counterpart in Eritrea Had a horrible time trying to interact With our respective Host governments What that means In terms of the future, I don't know Maybe it's irrelevant in terms Of where we go from here But it does underscore the importance Of local and regional Developments on the U.S. bilateral relationship With both of these countries And it Just absolutely overwhelmed the Relationship. We could say that the rapprochement Is the Ethiopia relationship. We've seen That was a useful thing For building confidence here So I will press you a little bit, David In terms of going back to that Pre-war period Where relations were good And now again between the two states Relations are good How can that be sustained How many people would say that the war That happened in many respects Escalated much more Rapidly and dramatically than Of course we know it lasted for For a long time there after the Cold war between them Are there lessons there? First off, time does heal wounds And the U.S. got Beyond this. I don't know whether it took a year A year and a half, two years But eventually the relationship Was improved significantly This side left by this time Other ambassadors had come in There were other ups and downs I know during these subsequent years But probably none quite as serious As the one caused by The Eritrean-Ethiopian War What's interesting, and this may be A lesson for some of you If you have any future ambassadors out here When you run into a situation like this It raises real issues as to What do you do with your time In a country When you know you've got another year Or two to be assigned there And you know the relationship Is in the tank largely Because of an event You have no control over And you can't do much about And it was probably One of the smarter things that I did At the time, I decided to focus On trying to do something About HIV AIDS in Ethiopia Totally neutral Political topic One that desperately needed attention USAID had resources They could put money into the program They had experts who were More than happy to come out And try to ameliorate the HIV AIDS problem Ethiopia was denying the problem It was sort of something They just weren't seeing By working with a combination Of the Ethiopian Orthodox church The president of Ethiopia, not the prime minister And even The Muslim community And the evangelical communities In Ethiopia, we launched A really serious HIV AIDS Counter program And it made all the difference in the world In terms of how I utilized my time And how the mission utilized its time Without that, frankly I would have been twiddling my thumbs out there For probably a year Ambassadors Brazil and Booth You both were there when relations Between Addis and Asmara were not good So I'd like to ask you both To offer any thoughts you have On anything that can be Appreciated from those days From that relationship Is there anything that's still relevant today Given how new the rapprochement is And how tenuous in some respects It might be for a number of reasons Whether in Tigray or whether in The mind of the president of Eritrea What do you see from that period That may be relevant? Well, I found On the border Areas, the communities there Knew who owned what land The local community On the Ethiopian side Would say that pasture over there That's Eritrea And over here this is ours So the local community Seemed to be Not more knowledgeable But able to Try to adjust That artificial line That had been drawn By the commission That cut off pastures Or cut off roads Or made people Have to cross two borders Just to get to town That kind of thing Left to their own devices I think that could have worked out But I know that By the time I got there The issue was still there The Ethiopians were hoping The U.S. could Do something about it As Mark said, I think our suspicions Of Isaiah's were such That we weren't convinced That anything could be worked out But it didn't loom that large Except that we did send Delegations there We did go ourselves As embassy officers and others To talk to local people To find out the situation And there had been a couple of skirmishes Here and there as well But things are relatively Peaceful and Addis The government and Addis wasn't Dwelling on it 100 percent Of the time There were more domestic issues I would say when I was there Was a bit warmer There were many instances where There were border incursions And retaliatory Border incursions At one point At least on two occasions that I can recall I specifically went in And cautioned against Things getting out of hand Making sure that there was no misunderstanding That the U.S. was giving a green light Or even a yellow light to what might be done It was a clear red light There was very much a tit for tat I can remember Melis telling me once They killed 12 of our minors The NDF went across the border And killed 12 of their soldiers And then we withdrew Because we'd done an eye for an eye That was very tense He said something which was widely misinterpreted He said, I'm willing to talk With Isaiah anytime, any place And everybody thought, oh, this is the great opening It was a lowering Of the rhetoric without actually any change Of the policy, which was Until you talk We're not going to make any changes on the border We're not going to respect the international arbitration So Abbey comes along And he's not Seen as he's seen As someone who has basically Sent the, from Isaiah's point of view The hated to grants off into exile And so, yes Isaiah is much more open to This rapprochement with Abbey But my understanding From my recent visit out there Is that after the border being open For a few months, with tens of thousands Of people crossing into Ethiopia Isaiah has decided to reclose that border He can't let the whole gulag get emptied out So what's left in it Now for Ethiopia You know, playing a bit of a devil's advocate Maybe Prime Minister Abbey got played On this Isaiah has gotten Greater international Recognition, receptivity out of it What has Ethiopia Got out of it Ideally what they want is access to the ports But as my colleagues have said Isaiah is a very Erratic character Who's going to make the investments In roads or railroads And port development For somebody who may shut it down Over any perceived slight So I'm not quite sure what Ethiopia Has gotten out of it I agree it's a good development Anything that will reduce tensions But I'm not sure that it's really solved The Ethiopia archery of problem Thanks to the panel for putting up With my questions, but you're not off the hook yet We would like to give The audience a chance to also raise Questions that you have But only questions please So please, there are some mics Both on the left and the right side Of the room. Please tell us who you are Please ask a question And please be concise. Thank you So the gentleman here In the front And then the lady here Thank you for holding this. I feel a little sheepish Saying this, I'm one of the visitors Who was just there, so I apologize But I was there last week Actually with a UNHCR delegation And we took a congressional staff And my question is We all kind of agree that The next 12, 18 months is critical And we met with US Embassy, USA ID and they all Acknowledged that the US could be doing more And I'm particularly interested from you all What ways, what kind of specific Ways could the US help In terms of the next 12, 18 months Dollars, election observers What are the tangible things the US Can be doing in this critical time Before the election? Thank you. The lady here Marina, all the way With Wilson Center I'd like to take you all Back to the issue of Ethnic Federalism And the elections coming up In democracy And I'm convinced that Ethiopia did not have any Choice but choosing a system Of ethnic federalism back then I didn't particularly like it But I think it was inevitable Because it was the only way to keep The country together But what really kept the country together Was the fact that the EPRDF Was, it's like the Communist Party In Yugoslavia and the Communist Party In the Soviet Union held all the Regions together The country, even if the EPRDF Loses some of its Then particularly if the elections Become more democratic as you are all Advocating, can the country stay Together? Or is that the beginning Of the disintegration of Ethiopia? Thank you. And we'll take One more, the lady there Just further back My name is Brown Mungistu Faculty member at HODU I thank all of you for My mother country Especially the two ambassadors She and Brazil have Had the opportunity to visit And I thank you One thing I heard that I like Is the privatization idea is a Bad idea because for those Of us who did a careful study It was a means to transfer Wealth of the nation To private hands the first one I think we'll repeat it The question I have Is really Prime Minister Avi I think I understand This maybe Than most people The idea of power From the context Of Kenneth Boulding You may recall Some of you That power has three Faces Is power threat The second one power Is really exchange Kind of the way Madame Brazil talked about Transactional Which already Is proven that we through Ethiopia we don't have much To do transactions so we are Stuck. And the third one Which I believe he really Believed censorily Is Called it love but I think Respect Win-win I think would be a good idea My question For all of you and for the United States government is If my assumption if what I am asserting is true That he's trying to come up With a win-win formula rather Than I win you lose What is that this government Is ready to do what Can you do as ambassadors To help influence policy To help him Become successful Thank you. So let's take that first round And then we'll come back to the audience again Perhaps we can start with the question Of the next 12 to 18 months. I mean This is of course the question that we're always Asking we stayed away from it Until now for this reason so we could set The foundation but maybe David Chen if I could ask you to respond to that What do you think should happen In the next 12 to 18 months? Yeah this is obviously a real Challenge for Abbey, Prime Minister Abbey And the people around him In terms of what the United States might do And trying to keep it Realistic I mean let's face it We're dealing with a policy Towards Africa where there's not An enormous amount of interest In Washington So one can Pontificate about all the kind Of stuff we should be doing But I'm not sure it's worth My pontificate Because it's not going to happen There are things that can be Done with the limited resources That we seem to be We seem to still have And that is essentially Supporting those kinds Of institutions both Financially and with Plain, exhortatory And moral support Such as keeping the press As free and as open as Possible hoping that it Will also be a Responsible press sometimes Press is not always responsible But hope springs eternal Working with The electoral commission In Ethiopia and I gather All kinds of foreign countries Have offered to support the And to ensure that you have A commission that when you do Have elections and as I said Earlier I'm not committed to the fact That you have to have it in 2020 It may have to be postponed But keeping the electoral commission As honest and as Open and As unbiased as Can possibly be done Moving forward as quickly as Possible with the census It's just awfully hard to do a And without an up-to-date census The last one was 2007 It's hopelessly out of date How do you even determine Where your voting power Is in the country Encouraging the Support of Ethiopian Particularly civil society Organizations All of these things are interested In doing and willing to do And I think the U.S. Can be helpful in this regard Concert with partners Mainly the European Union But these are still Relatively small Contributions to the problem In the final analysis it's an Ethiopian It's got to be an Ethiopian fix Ambassador Brazil I'm sure you agree With that also that it has to be an Ethiopian fix But do you see additional things That the United States should contemplate In the next 12 to 18 months period Well I agree with everything Ambassador Shin said and I would add Something to do with the diaspora The diaspora has a huge influence In Ethiopia Because their families there And they can influence And money And money for sure And since the Prime Minister Sort of Reconciled With the diaspora I think there's an opportunity There exactly what I'm not sure Because it has to be Ethiopian made Not American made But I think there's opportunity And money there that could influence Preparations and openness To In the electoral process Ambassador Basin Booth Perhaps I can ask you to respond To this question about ethnic Federalism and is the country Facing a collapse If it isn't organized In that way Marina Aldaway's question Well I think You've heard my view which is I think ethnic federalism is probably The best system they have now I think what they ought to focus on Is trying to Kind of fix it and make it More palatable And more desirable to more People in the country In the monopoly Of any one ethnic group Any particular part of the economy Over the security services Over any particular ministry They might look at You know Right now it's a federal system But it's really a centralized system Because it's the party controls Governmentally federal Effectively centralized system So make it really more of a federal system Effectively Where perhaps the local parties That come out on top in their regions Really do have More autonomy and control I mean the other thing about Federalism is until A federal entity can truly Raise revenue and tax its people Is never really going to Have autonomy from the center So that's maybe something else That should be considered As a way of really Empowering each of the regions But at the same time It's very important that this notion Of Ethiopianness Be built up and be Stressed so that If you do have more Autonomous Regions Under a federal structure That's not licensed to say Well you're not from this Ethnic group so get out of Our region and to Atomize the country Along ethnic lines So I think it's a two pronged approach The leadership at the top needs to be emphasizing We're all Ethiopians Together but we do have Our uniqueness And we're going to allow people To express And experience their uniqueness To a greater degree Than in the past I know that's sort of a wishy washy answer But I think there's No cookie cutter That really fits And ultimately as we've all been saying The Ethiopians are going to have to decide What that solution is I agree with that And I really don't have a lot to add But I would just say that I think we Ethiopians need to be very Very careful because To come to your point I think for all its failures The system has prevented Most Terrible Outcomes of one can imagine And I think it's not bad for the international community To stress That okay, we understand This isn't perfect, we understand There ought to be changes and so on and so forth But let's not sort of rush into Some other system that leads To Who are fighting Tigrayans Whomever else Because that's not good for Ethiopian and certainly not good Either Would anyone like to respond to the professor's question About your own personal roles Moving forward or should we go to Take another round, feel free if anyone has Anything they'd like to add to that We're all hands built Exactly We might have muscle memory But we don't have any Any current role Alright, thanks Just do two fingers on the first question Which is what the U.S. can do One of the critical things is Don't let hubris take hold Let's be modest And realistic and not over promise What we can do to help Thanks for that helpful reminder Let's take a few more questions So we have the man in the back there Good afternoon My name is Robert Bowman I'm with the U.S. Department of Justice I'm the regional director for Africa Overseeing some of the capacity building programs In Africa, had the pleasure of living In 2006-2008 My wife worked at PAC To the USCID funded program For democracy and governance Had the opportunity since then to be overseeing Some of the programs in Ethiopia And just went back in December to do an Assessment tour to see what The USG should be providing Quickly I'll say Ambassador Rainer And his team has done a fabulous job Trying to get the USG to turn Its attention in a more Directed fashion and with more resources Quickly going back to questions Asked earlier what we can be doing Based upon your historical knowledge And your knowledge about what's going on In Ethiopia now What is it within the justice sector That you would suggest should be What institutions and what priorities Should be addressed That's certainly the question that we were Asked in the assessment One very quick observation that goes back To how this panel started On this Ethiopia being on an Assessment and going around and meeting The leadership of all the various Ministries was how young The people were that were now in Place supposedly in the leadership Of running institutions And you compare that To the opposition, the spoilers With their years of running things I found that very Surprising or Concerning. But anyway Back to the questions really about justice Sector and what your focus Would be knowing what you know. Thank you. For the free advice to the DOJ. So okay, we'll have the gentleman Here. Yeah. Thank you. My name is Jerry Jones. I'm happily retired. I'm curious if during Your individual 10 years, in your Interface with Ethiopian authorities Did you find the Annual State Department's Human Rights Report and Voice of America To be of no consequence To be harmful, to be Helpful, or What was the, or maybe It never came up. Thank you. There's a gentleman Right in the back there. Thank you very much. My name is Goutou Oyesa. I'm affiliated with the University of Helsinki in Finland and American University in DC. My question is As we think of framing The problems to look for the way We need to frame it Rightly and I need To raise a concern about The ongoing displacement Attributed entirely To ethnic conflicts. Would it be fair to Mention it as entirely Caused by ethnic differences And describe it as ethnic Conflicts? These are broad implications And I would like to see Your reflection because I see A complex state of causes Actually driving the current state Of affairs. And the same goes Into the way we understand The implications of ethnic federalism. Did it fail Entirely? Did it work in Some ways? Did it fail where It failed because it is Organized in that way or Did it fail because it was not Implemented in the way it should Have been implemented in the first place. The absence of entirely fair shared Fair Self rule In the absence of democracy How did we expect to work It better than this? Thank you for your question. And we'll take one more. There's the lady right there. I'm Julie Stewart. I'm an intern At the Africa Society. I feel like I got a well Rounded number of statements About how the US feels about What's going on in Ethiopia right Now I'm wondering if you guys Know anything about how Ethiopians On the ground are feeling about All of these reforms. Thank you for that. So we have the question about Justice. What could be done in The justice sector? Any thoughts? I'd like to comment on that. We actually had during my time In Ethiopia a very active Program Funded by USAID The judicial sector of Ethiopia. I thought it was one of our better programs. I probably misjudged that To some extent because I'm not sure I fully understood the degree to which The judicial sector was A tool of the executive branch In Ethiopia at the time. In other words we were training Judges we were training prosecutors I thought this was all great stuff. And these were young people Up and comers and hopefully They're now in a position where You can be independent judges And prosecutors under The Abiyamid government But unfortunately During the time that I was there It never really was able to break Out of the control of the Executive branch and become A truly independent judiciary. And the program ended a couple Of years after I left I believe I know it came to a halt At some point in time. But it was a good program and A program that ought to be looked at Right now to see if this Isn't the time to revive this sort Of program so that you can Have a more independent judiciary. Can you carry on with the Voice of America? A good point. In sort of a good way The day that The annual human rights report Came out was always one of the worst days Of my life in Ethiopia. Because you could be assured that You were called in by either Mellis or somebody else and hammered For what the hell are you allowing To happen now? You're criticizing us. It's all wrong, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. But this was one way That we could get the word out And it would not necessarily be attributed To me individually as the person Getting the word out. But those reports were done very carefully. They were done in concert with the Embassy. The embassy didn't always agree But they were negotiated reports Between Washington and Addis Ababa As they are with other posts Around the world. They're very important reports. Governments I think do read them, Do pay attention to them. They do serve a purpose. I was always in favor of them In spite of the fact that it Made some very difficult days For me at least one day out of the year. A couple days out of the year. I'm a strong believer in Voice of America. Sometimes Voice of America would Get a little off track In that you would get Some particularly Ethiopian American commentators who might go a little Bit over the edge on a few things Totally irritating the government And sometimes justifiably so. But then the reaction from the government Was so heavy hand that it's to be almost Bizarre, shutting down The service of the I believe it was the Amharic service On a number of occasions to Ethiopia. This is totally uncalled for. Heavy handed, unnecessary. Even if Mistakes are occasionally made By Voice of America, which they probably Will be. But I think it's A very important institution in Washington to maintain. Ambassador Brazil, the Human Rights reports The question was also did they make A difference and what's your view on that? I think they made a difference. I think it got information out To the general American And international communities As well as to People in Ethiopia. Perhaps because I was a woman I didn't get As strong a pushback We got pushback But I like to think that the Reports during my time there were Very honest and very Comprehensive. We pushed back on any allegations That we were not, we were just Simply updating what had been done Before and we weren't cleaning Out old information and that kind Of thing. We made an effort to Actually Go and talk to the government agencies Responsible for whatever it was We were writing up. So I think You know, there was Some pushback but not, I don't Recall being particularly perturbed By it. Ambassador, can I ask you to respond About displacement. This is the Current situation. Is it fair to say it's all the result Of ethnic problems? Are there other Causes to it? Are there other factors That explain it? My understanding is the Displacement that we've seen, the 3% of the population that I Mentioned are now driven from Their homes. It really is Ethnic. But I've also been told that It's basically political leaders And the ethnic card To boost their own Prestigian popularity. You know, you get people riled Up. I'm here to defend your Interest against the other. And I think that's what we've Seen in Ethiopia. I did hear When I was out there that the Federal government's response was An edict that everybody should Go back to where they came from. I.e. if you were displaced, go back To where you were displaced from. That's nice to say, but very Hard to actually implement. Why would people go back if They were driven out of their home? How would they feel safe there? If their home was burned, who was Going to help them rebuild it? So there's a conundrum there. And I don't think that this Displacement issue is going to be Settled until the broader Political structure issues are Settled in the country. Perhaps I can ask you to continue With this. Well, I think it's a matter of, You know, you see it from where you Sit. If you're sitting up in Tigray, you think this is not Particularly good development. That the country is degenerating Into lawlessness and chaos. The economy is collapsing. If you're sitting in Oremia, You're breathing a bit of a sigh Of relief that we now have our Rightful place. We have some Power. We're still by far the most popular Person in the country, but that Popularity is beginning to wane The longer he's in charge. And I would say one of the real Challenges that he faces is There are rising expectations In Ethiopia now. And one thing I do remember from Political Science 101 is that Revolutions only occur In situations where there are Rising expectations. So he has a lot of work to do That he's going to keep the Country together, find that Sweet spot of, you know, what Works Governmentally wise, structurally, Federal, centralized, what Combination, what combination Between government and party Going forward. I think that's Also a key structural issue that Needs to be addressed. So again, it's, you know, Where you are depends on how You see the developments. We're at time. Back to the justice question. I think that some Of our efforts could be aimed At Concentration, how do you diffuse Ethnic tensions? How do people Get a fair shake in the Courts In some Setup That would maybe reassure people. So I just throw that out. Just real quickly on the I would simply add that it's Not uniquely a question of Ethnicity. The whole land issue Is a very important element of This, which is related Obviously to ethnicity, but it's Far more complex question than Just ethnicity. And the land is also a place Where the justice question Intersects once more. Of course Is the problem with these kind Of panels just when you get it Going, it's time to end I'm very grateful to all of you. Mr. David Chin, Aurelia Brazil, Mark Bass and Donald Booth for Your remarks and for your patience. Susan Stigant, our Africa director Will just say a few final thoughts. Thanks. Thank you, Allie. I have the Nice job to be able to say thank You to our panelists and thank You to all of you for joining Us. I also have the benefit that Nobody will ask me any questions And what am I about to say? I will go back to a discussion we Had several years ago talking About transitions and transitions In countries that are ready for Transition and transitions in Countries that aren't ready and What role the US and diplomatic Engagement can play in that. I think listening today, it's Clear that transitions are Incredibly difficult. There are Issues of the immediate moment That have to be addressed. There Are issues of the past that Are not in the context of Transition and transitions along The way and diplomatic Representatives play a critical Role in that. We tend to think About the transition in Ethiopia I think in the last year term And what I really appreciate Today is to put that into the Context of the various points Of transition of the country and The relationship that the United States has had now for Over 120 years and the That conversation a couple of years We were talking about the role of External partners of helping to Hold up a mirror as some of these Transitions are taking place and I think that's true in capitals But also true at the regional Level and at the community level So let me thank our excellent Panelists for sharing their Experiences. Ali, thank you for Asking difficult questions and Keeping the conversation honest and Genuine and let me thank all of You for your interest. I think In a country, when we look at Ethiopia, one in 12 Africans is Ethiopian. What we're seeing take Place in that country I think Deserves the attention that Fills the room today and the Deep experience that our Panelists have brought. So thank You very much. Please join me in Thank you.