Let's get started with this week's weekly charting analysis webinar. Definitely going to be an interesting week. Got the end of quantitative easing. The stimulus program from the Fed that's pretty much propped up stock markets this last couple of years. So that's pretty big. Before we get to that, though, I've got the risk warning on the screen. Well, maybe you've all read that first page. Let's shoot through to the next one. Well, it's a bit of an aside. So let's just start with it just because I did a bit more of a sort of exaggerated chart picture than I typically would, but Twitter report earnings after the close of U.S. markets today. So even if you're not trading individual stocks, you know, this is always, well, not always, but the last couple of reports, earnings reports for Twitter have been pretty volatile. And so I thought it worth just putting a chart foreign post up there. And according to the chart, you know, we are potentially a bit of a turning point with Twitter. So what you can see here is that this is a daily chart. And so we're trending higher. The 50-day moving average, if I scroll out a bit, you can see has been quite instructive. In terms of the general direction of the trend, you can see we've sort of come back, break out of it, on that stronger up movement, come down, retest, and we've been higher above. And now we're grinding into it again. So that's not to say we're going to definitely go below it, but there are a couple of indications we could. One is this bearish divergence in the RSI. And the other is the fact that we've made a lower low. So if you consider that the first low, you know, and the other is the fact that we've made a lower low. So if you consider that the first low, I wouldn't typically classify this as a low, because I mean it's to their own in terms of how you do call a low and maybe you don't even consider highs and lows important. I think they're essential. So there's two higher closes on that side. But on this side, only one. So to me that's not quite a low. So even though it proved to be quite instructive of what was to happen next, to me this is the big one, because you've got plenty of highs and lows on either side. It was a longer term, more significant low point. We've moved beyond there. And you could actually consider this a high at this point, because it's had two days either side. So a lower low and a lower high. So, you know, technically that's a downtrend, but it's not always as easy as that. What we'd be looking to move down there would be the big confirmation. And that would also obviously be below the rising trend line. And then we get into the territory of this gap, which often acts as a support. So that whole zone would potentially be support. But given that we've closed that much before, I wouldn't be unduly surprised if we went and dropped down to the beginning of that gap and just closed that whole gap. And that would be a change in trend. And we could even be pushing down below 30. It depends how bad it is for Twitter. Of course, it may not be bad at all. The last report was actually quite good. And it's just been sold off a bit recently, just because of a general set off in some of the more high valuation stocks going into this earnings season. So always hard to know exactly what the earnings will be, whether it will be a beat or a miss. But here's the technical set up, so definitely worth considering. Now back to markets as a whole. I'm going to go straight to the German DAX, just because the big data that we've seen so far today was the German IFO. So that's just a business sentiment or report that's pretty widely watched. And there was some hope that after, I believe, six months, no, five months of declines, there was some hope that actually would see a bit of an uptick this month. And that's not happened. It actually is the same in terms of future expectations, which is kind of the key one to one, because you obviously want to know what's going to happen in the future, not what people think about the current environment, but what they think about the future is key, particularly in terms of businesses and whether they're going to invest in some future projects. So that was actually just the same as last month, which is obviously not a decline, so that's good. But the rest of the report was a decline, and it still missed expectations. And so that has essentially undone the sort of positive feeling that came out of these European Bank stress tests that came out over the weekend. Basically 25 banks out of 130 failed these stress tests, but only a handle of those actually need to raise capital in order to shore up their balance sheets to a sufficient standard to actually then pass the test. Why is that important? Well, the European Central Bank have been trying to stimulate the European economy, because there's been low price inflation. And one of the recent measures they did was this TL-TRO program, and silly name, but all it is, is just the offering of sort of cheaper interest rate loans to banks to then hand out to businesses. Specifically, the money has to go to lending towards the business to obviously stimulate the European economy, which has been in a rough state since the European debt crisis. And so the thought here is that maybe now that these bank stress tests is out of the way, banks don't have to worry about having sufficient money on their balance sheets. They passed the test, so now they can make some more loans again. And so this may be the turning point for when the European economy can pick up with banks now feeling much more able to hand out loans. And so then conversely, if the European economy does pick up, then there wouldn't be any need for the ECB to do full-on quantitative easing, and that would potentially be not such a good thing for stock markets. But I would argue perhaps a good thing for the euro. The euro's been declining pretty massively since they hit 140, and if massive amounts of euros are not going to be printed in a quantitative easing program, that would be kind of supportive of the euro. But as I mentioned, the Fed is the US Federal Reserve. The central bank there is ending its quantitative easing program this month, and markets are looking for someone to take the baton. And maybe that's not going to be the ECB if their current programs, this TL, TRO program works. So that's the possible implications of all this. There is a distinct possibility that it makes no difference. There are a lot of people out there, almost myself included. I think maybe just more of the issue is just a lack of demand in the European economy. So a demand for loans. So if it's just a really weak business environment, the business is struggling, you're not going to take on a loan because you're feeling so confident. You're actually not feeling confident. You don't want a loan. So just the fact that banks feel more capable of making loans doesn't mean that people actually are going to want to take them up. So that's what we're going to be monitoring in the months to come. So when the next set of take-up from this TL, TRO, that would be important given that this bank stress test is now out of the way. Technically, with the DAX, I can see it a bit better on the weekly chart. I've mentioned this a few times now. This is the sort of head and shoulders formation. So this would be the sort of double-ish left shoulder. Triple even. This would be the head. This would be the right shoulder. You could also call it a triple top. I would say more accurately a head and shoulders. So it's broken the neckline. So you can either use that as a neckline, which would be the two lows, which do correspond pretty well, or kind of closing prices. And I would close weekly prices. And so that proved to be perhaps a bit more instructive. And so that's where we are now. It's not necessarily a big coincidence. I had this line drawn in weeks ago. That's where we're reversing at the moment. And it's right around this 90-50 mark. So what we could have seen here, technically, is a pattern breakout, a retest of the breakout area, the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern, to subsequently make the next move down. So that's something to bear in mind. And that would put us, these are the low down here, I believe it's sort of about 7-7-50 or something, I believe is about the projection. What you do is take the height of the head from the breakout area, perhaps this, the 90-50 mark, and project that downwards. So definitely an important price level right now. If this pattern does prove to be work out, this would be pretty, if this was a retest here and then moves down, obviously this would be a great place to be selling. But I only know that with the benefit of hindsight. This could be the end of the correction. This is about 10% from the highs. So a lot of people have that 10% number of Gallup in mind. This could be the end of the correction, only for us to make up new highs. A lot of that could depend, maybe not even on German domestic conditions, but more just the overall international stock markets and how things pan out with U.S. corporate earnings and the end of quantitative easing. So with that in mind, let's have a look at the U.S. 30. This is here, looks very similar. So on the weekly chart you can see this longer-term trend line that I've got here, going way back since the bottom of the financial crisis in March 2009, connecting these lows here. And so you can see we're well above that. So even if we did make a new low, which we haven't quite done yet, we'd still have the support potentially of that rising trend line. So it's still pretty constructive on the U.S. stock market. And obviously we've not even made a low-low on the weekly chart yet. This level is, you know, you can see we've bounced off there pretty nicely. So then it's a matter of, well, are we going to go down perhaps challenge this line here and the longer-term rising trend line? Well then we need to sort of look at the daily chart for that. This is what you call the sort of the bottom potentially. If it is in fact the bottom, it's been a very sharp move down and a very sharp move back up again. So definitely great market for trading, a lot of big price movement. So what I'm kind of weighing up here is the fact that in terms of highs and lows, you know, this was really the last high that was formed. It's way up here. So still theoretically anywhere below there we could still roll over and still be in the context of a downtrend. So if that was the last high, this was the last low, none of these really on a kind of daily basis classifies lows in terms of that definition that I previously used to higher-closer these aside. So this would be a consideration because this is, you know, you can see we kind of broke through there. We had these kind of two lows there. That could be big. I'm also looking at this big spike here. It's kind of proved constructive in the past and kind of matches these lows and this high-ish on the past. This zone is tricky and we've had such a big strong move up. You've got to feel that we would correct somehow at some point. So what we're either going to see here is maybe a correction lower down here and then a further bounce up again or just that's the end of it and we're down again to potentially test that long-term trend line. For short-term trading, you know, we're in an uptrend. We've got to be a bit wary of this movement from today. It's harder to see the levels on the U.S. 30 but obviously looking at that, Germany 30 chart, that level is a bit more significant and we're seeing a sort of similar reversal on this four-hour chart there. So potentially the beginning and the end for this correction. But as of the moment, we're still above the 50 on this four-hour chart and we're still above the 21 period MA. So default is you've got to assume we're trending higher but you've got to be aware of this longer-term picture. Actually, technically, we're still going down. So when thinking about the U.S. 30, the U.S. SVX, the U.S. NDAQ 100 and any of the dollar currency pairs, definitely and in fact gold, we've got to think about the U.S. Fed this month and on Wednesday the Fed is expected to end their quantitative easing program by cutting the last $15 billion that they pump in each month from the QE program and ending it. So that's a certain amount of liquidity that's been provided to in the market. It's used to that amount of liquidity. When you've got a big buyer in the market buying up treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, it's supportive of risk-taking in general. If you've got a big buyer like that, people just tend to be on the side of buying rather than selling. So when that ends, it's going to be down to the economy and the stock market to hold up on its own and it's pretty highly valued right now so there's a distinct risk that it won't be able to. A good measure for how this report on Wednesday gets, this judge will be gold, can have a look at that chart in a second. But just in terms of what to look out for in this report, they're almost definitely going to taper the $15 billion. They may not. If they don't, that would be, I would think, pretty supportive of the stock market and also pretty supportive of gold. The more gold did really well in the years leading up to and during the first part of the quantitative easing program. But when it looked like it was going to be starting to kind of tape it off, that's when gold just couldn't get up beyond that $2,000 per ounce mark and we're in this kind of correction phase now. So almost definitely going to taper and that would be theoretically bad for gold just because they're getting closer to raising interest rates and sort of going, you know, there's not going to be that much risk of sort of a hyperinflation in which you would need gold as a protection if they're just raising rates which generally acts to curb inflation. What they could do is change the statement. There's a big statement in there which references a considerable period of time referencing when they're going to hike rates next. So if they change that to indicate that they may hike rates sooner, then that would probably be pretty bad for stock markets and also pretty bad for gold. So that would be certainly something to watch out for. The general assumption I think out there though is that they won't be changing the statement. Really all they're going to do is NQE. So it's not really to rock the boat too much with all too much in one meeting. Next month could be one in which they change the statement. But I think they're trying to kind of anchor interest rate expectations. Not worry the markets too much. Just say it's going to be the middle of next year by the time we raise rates. But while we're on the gold chart, let's have a look at it. So you can see on that longer-term chart we hit that 1180 for the third time. We bounced off there pretty strongly but we've now broken through this rising trend line on the four-hour chart and these two blue lines just correlate to the recent highs and lows as I judged them on the daily chart. So we've broken the rising trend line on the short-term but we've not broken below this low here. And we're just in a really tight range because gold is very sensitive to the Fed and interest rate expectations. So a move below there doesn't bode well. We could be in for another test of 1180. If we drop below this blue line here which corresponds to the kind of most recent low. But we're above the low at the moment and we have made a high high just about. So even though we've broken this short-term trend line still the general assumption would be that gold can hold above and at least retest the high again, perhaps make a new high. Just with the idea that trends tend to last longer than you expect. But while we're on the commodities space let's have a look at oil. So it's been a pretty huge market of late in terms of the direction of trend. For those of you who've been trading a while, you've been loving it. For those of you who've been new to trading perhaps you've missed some of this trend but this really is great trading when you have such a sharp trend like this because what are your decisions on a trade? You have to decide what market to trade. Decide what direction you're going to trade in that market. Obviously with CMC markets you can trade long or short. And then exactly where to time your trade is obviously key. That second element is often overlooked in terms of just actually picking the right direction. Your timing doesn't have to be that great if you get the right direction and you put your stops in the right places. You can sort of improve how much risk you're taking each time. If this was the downtrend in crude the benefit of hindsight we're looking for a continuation of the downtrend.  And the benefit of hindsight that would have worked out beautifully. But if as long as you got the direction right you could have sold down here. Yeah, you would have been sweating when it was bouncing up here. But as long as you had your stop above the previous high which is the definition of the downtrend that would make it lower lows, lower highs you'd still eventually be good. So can't overestimate how important it is to have a nice strong trend and that's what we've got in oil right now. Obviously you've got to be cognizant of when it could end. And we've just in WTI we've just hit 80. And so the dynamics in the oil market right now are mostly centered around global supply and demand not so much global geopolitics that's just really being discounted at the moment because nothing's massively disrupting oil production in Iraq and Syria and Libya. Nothing actually is halting oil production right now the same with Russia. They're threatening to not distribute natural gas or they're not giving Ukraine any natural gas at the moment and that's a bit of a sort of political turbulent situation at the moment but in terms of oil that's not so much a factor it's just the fact that the global economy seems to be slowing a bit particularly coming from Germany and China China especially is obviously a massive consumer of commodities and it's slowing a bit and the US is now producing lots of oil. So there's a lot more oil out there and potentially less people wanting it so the prices have been crashing down but as I said we've hit this key 80 level so then you can see better one of my daily chart now on a four hour chart you can see we're in this kind of range really on WTI it's 80's key but it's about 8070 to this 8390 but really we're talking about 84 and then in Brent it's really the same thing but it's 83 to 87 is the range. So we're in the sideways market right now we're hitting the bottom of the range depending on your trading style this potentially is a there's a bear flag and we potentially broken out excuse me so yeah as of this panel we've broken out if you're trading that that bear flag so we could be in for new lows and just based on that idea again that the trend is down you know we really want to be trying to trade with the direction of the trend but we've just got to be aware of the potential for it to reverse 80 is a big round number and it could still hold and I think the thing that could make it hold is what OPEC does namely Saudi Arabia they've been cutting prices to their supplies to Asia sort of but they did apparently in September cut the amount that was supplied to the market so they produced the same but they cut the amount of oil they supplied to the market in an attempt to obviously that same discussion be less supply on the market to match that less demand and push prices back up because obviously as an oil producer they buy higher oil prices because they make more money so the next OPEC meetings in November so that if they actually do cut production or some of the other OPEC countries start to at least cut supply to the market that could be a changing dynamic as of now we're still talking about higher supply than higher demand and the trend is down we're hitting the bottom of the range now so if you're a breakout trader you'd be ironing up this area and waiting for corrections we're obviously right at the low right now so not optimum in terms of a bounce for selling now let's get into the currencies Pound is interesting right now this is a daily chart what I'm looking at here is kind of a wedge with bullish RSI divergence so I'm sure a lot of you are familiar but for those who aren't price making lower lows you see an indicator momentum indicator like the RSI making higher lows shows the prices still turning down but it's just got less momentum behind it so this 50 level when you're using the RSI with the period 14 and well any period really but particularly with the 14 is deemed significant if you're above if you're below there and we're kind of roughly we're sort of bouncing around uptrending it mostly above it here we've been below it for this period and obviously that was a down trend as well so it's just an extra indication to judge which way to be trading and we've tested off there, it would look like maybe we're going for another test to potentially move through and that would correspond with the top of this wedge and this declining trend line and we've got this divergence going on so the trend is not reversed yet but we could be in the midst of a higher low we've not seen a higher high yet so I've got my line drawn lower actually only to update it, there is the line in the sand now short term I don't think that changes the picture too much you can just see it in a bit more detail it's kind of a choppy market in the short term you need this at the moment daily chart is a clear one for the pound for me Euro similar situation Euro is obviously tanks but we've hit 125 the round number we've gone up hit 129 where we have this last period of consolidation obviously that was a low at that area no coincidence that we banged into that we'll come back down and we're in a kind of a range trading situation and these blue lines that I've got on the chart see a bit on the four hour chart there you can see it corresponds to the highs and lows on the daily chart and you can see it in a bit more detail in the short term chart we're in a range trade right now so with a benefit hindsight obviously buying off these low at the bottom of the range is good we've come off the round number around 127 theoretically we're going sideways in the short term we've broken through this slight rising area but probably ahead of the FOMC on Wednesday we're not going to get any Godgantuan moves in dollar pairs dollar yen near in the end of the session here so any questions at all put it through the chat window and I'll get to that after the official webinar time so for those of you who are following the chart forum there's inverse head and shoulders that I pointed to not quite made the target area yet we're in this kind of consolidation period again ahead of the Fed we've got quite a bit of data out of Japan as well this week we've got the Bank of Japan rate setting meetings that will also be of some influence so we're not quite at the objective yet for this pattern if it is to play out we did break out but the question is if we break out of this pattern based on this pattern here but obviously if we break below the bottom of this range we're heading back down to the neckline again which would stretch out over here down to this 107 mark and also matches along with this consolidation area there below there probably coming into this area but still looks like a continuation pattern to me where you have more like a kind of bull flag there's the pole there's the rectangle up to 110 again but remains to be seen if in fact that plays out okay I'm going to just stop the recording here so any of those who at the end of their lunch break thanks a lot for attending again there will be a recording of this on YouTube should you want to check back or obviously feel free to share it for those of you who want to stick around we've got a quick question here that I'm going to answer from the chat window


Fantastic. Okay. Where are my slides? All right. Thanks for having me everyone. There's going to be a lot of puns in this presentation. As you can see, you know, easy e-commerce and then static because Gatsby, so ecstatic commerce. This is a pretty fancy location. I think normally there's a ballroom. I think the mirror is very distracting. At least I found that to be. So please look in the middle, not at yourself. Cool. Now normally when I'm in this country, I'm sweating a lot, but this is very comfortable for me. The temperatures is perfect. So I'm actually visiting our Singapore office this week, last week and this week. And normally I'm based in our Amsterdam office in the Netherlands. So this is the view from my window normally. Down there is the swimming flower market. It's on the canal. And what you can see the church is a melodic church. So every hour we get a little melody. That's great. And what you see on the rice there, that's Sir Nelson. You might be able to see a dock down there. And Sir Nelson is on call. As you can see, the API is up and running. So he can chill. This is actually a poster of increment. It's a magazine about building and deploying software at scale. So if you're interested in that, you can look it up online. It's pretty cool. There's some good issues. Now, quickly about myself. My name is Thorsten Scheff. I'm originally from Northern Germany. But because no one can pronounce that, you can just call me Thor. I think being in Northern Germany, that's close enough to the Norse kind of mythology. Yeah, so Thor. And then I guess my Twitter handle is pretty self-explanatory. Thorweb.dev. I also got my .dev domain. So can you guess what it is? Thorweb.dev. Yeah, cool. So what I do, I'm an integration engineer at Stripe, which means I work with many of our largest customers and partners, helping them build great payment experiences, checkout experiences. Generally more complex integrations like multi-sided marketplaces. So if you think of booking.com where a customer pays, and then the payment has to be routed to a hotel or a property, that's kind of a marketplace. Uber or Grab. Oh yeah, Grab is a good example here, right? Payment goes in, needs to be routed to a driver. That's what we do. And I do that in continental Europe.  Have you heard of the term Jamstack before? Raise your hand. Brilliant, yeah. So Jam stands for JavaScript, APIs, and markup. And it's pretty much aesthetic size, like Gatsby is sort of a Jamstack application where you use JavaScript and APIs and potentially markdown, markup, aesthetic files to surf your content.  I think there's a guest network and we can actually get cracking or you can follow along and the resources are available on Thor.News slash ecsthetic if you want to follow along. Okay, if you have your laptop now, it's the time. Crack it open. I can see you there in the front row. Put that water away. Okay, now let me see, can you see that? Yeah, so Gatsby has a fantastic documentation. There's also Jason Langstorff. He's on the DevRel team at Gatsby and he does many live streams, which are really great to follow along. And there's the Gatsby CLI that you can install. I've already done that. And then we can simply run Gatsby new to scaffold a new project. So we're going to do that here. I'm in my document folder, Gatsby new. We're going to call it Gatsby, let's say Singapore. Cool. Now, while that is running, and I hope it is running, we can actually look at hooks. Quick show of hands. Who here has used hooks in React? Okay, yeah, good amount of. Sorry? Okay, yeah, no, that's fair enough. So the reason why we need to send, actually what we're going to use is the effect hook. You're probably familiar with the component did mount function that you would use in your class components. Now, in function components, we can use the use effect function, which is exposed by React to get sort of the same effect of component did mount. And the reason we need that is because later on, we're going to load Stripe.js, which is our JavaScript library, which is going to be available on the window object. But because Gatsby site are server-side rendered, we can't actually access the window object in our normal React code. So that's why we need to wait until everything is mounted, and then we can access the window object. Cool, let's see if we... Oh, wow. Still running. Should we talk a bit more about hooks? What's there to say? Can you read the size? Is that good? Bit bigger. Bit bigger? Like that? Even bigger? Right, right, right. I mean, we're not actually really going to look at that. We're just sort of fantastic. Okay, time has passed. Let's open this in VS code. I guess it didn't work, sir. Whatever. Just going to... Come on. Open folder, sorry. There we have it. It's like I've never used the laptop before. Okay. Here we are. The structure is here. We have our pages. We have our index page in here, and what you can see, our index page is a function component that simply returns here our layout, the SEO, and all of that stuff. Now, we actually want to use the... use effect hook in there, so we need to turn this into a quick function. I'm just going to return that, and then what we can do is simply copy this. We don't have the variable here. We're just going to set this to 10 just to see if it works, and then let's actually... Is that size? Okay, can you read that? Higher. Well, now that's a bit awkward. I'm going to zoom in when it gets important. Can you see that? Yeah, cool. So what we actually can do now is we can use Gatsby develop to run our development server, and then when we go back, our local host... Oh, already have an error. Fantastic. Use effect is not defined yet. That makes sense. We need to actually load it. What did I do? Oh, yeah. Look at me. This is very collaborative. I like this. This is great. Ha! There we are. Can you always come to work with me? That would be good. Awesome. And as you can see, okay, our effect is working. Great. So we have that set up. Now, what do we need to do? Yeah, so actually now we'll quickly register a Stripe account because we're going to use the new Stripe hosted checkout because we're building a static website. We're actually not having a server, so we're sort of outsourcing the whole checkout piece to Stripe. So what we can do is we can go to Stripe.com slash register. Actually, have you heard of Stripe? Anyone doesn't know Stripe? Okay, wow. Is that everyone? Oh, yeah, that's okay. So what we do is online payments infrastructure. So you can sign up and within five minutes, well, probably 20 minutes, what we're doing here with all my talking, you can accept payments online as a developer. It's really, really easy to do that. And that's sort of what I'm trying to demonstrate. Now, let's do this. Let's quickly sign up in your account. I'm going to do Thor plus Singapore React.js. Well, actually, maybe. That's straight. Stripe.com. Thor. Now, can we get like a great Google password or something? Or actually, let's just do... Yeah, I mean, this is really, when you have your laptop and you follow along, it's not as boring. Cool. Oh, what? That is crazy now, okay. Let's do React SG. SG React.js. What? Not a robot. Come on. Let's quickly pin that tab. And what we want to do is we want to use checkout. So we're going to go into the settings, into the checkout settings, and we're going to enable checkout. Cool. When we're operating in life mode, and we have a client-only implementation without a server, we actually specify our domain in life mode to make sure that actually only your domain can redirect off to the checkout page. And now, what we need to do, because we don't have a server site component that can validate the products and the SKUs and actually calculate what we need to charge, we need to tell Stripe about the products that we're selling. So my cool ebook, and we see if I can do Singapore dollars. Let's do 10 Singapore dollars. I'm not going to upload a picture with that internet. Good luck. And now, once that happens, what we do in the background is actually we spin up the product object with an associated SKU. SKU stands for Stock Keeping Unit. And so we can see our SKU here. We have a SKU ID. Can you see that? We have a SKU ID. And then we actually have a button used with checkout, and we're just going to follow along there what we have to do. So you can look at the steps here. We need to load Stripe.js. We need to provide a button. The button has a raw link because it actually redirects off to a Stripe hoster checkout. We then need to initialize the Stripe library with our publishable key. And that is here going to be living on the window object. And that's why we're using hooks. And then lastly, when the button is clicked, we can simply call redirect to checkout with our SKU ID to then kick off the checkout process. And here we can specify success URL where we return back to if the payment was successful or a canceled URL if the customer doesn't actually go through the checkout. Cool. And I hope that is clear. So with Gatsby, because the server side ran it, the way you load Stripe.js is actually, well, at least what I do is use a plugin. So we can here find our Gatsby Stripe plugin. We're not using the Stripe checkout. That's for the old Stripe checkout. What we want here is the Stripe.js library. So what we can do now is we can install that plugin. Now let's quickly kill the server. Install the plugin. And then what we need to do is in our Gatsby config, we need to register our plugin. Gatsby config.js. There we are. So I'm actually going to make it the first plugin. And then yeah, what's more to say here. The internet is slow. We can sort of look at the next steps that we'll need to do is we actually need a button. So let's still running, wow. Let's simply put a button here. Okay, we're going to call this by my ebook. Let's give that a quick save. Are we still? Wow, okay. Still running. There we are. Now, if we fire this up again, just to quickly verify that the loading of the plugin all worked fine. We can go back to our page here. Hmm. Let's see. And if we now check on the window objects and actually let me zoom that in. We can now see that we have the Striper library loaded. We also have the buy my ebook function here. Button, sorry. And we actually now need a function that triggers when the button is clicked. So we're going to just put a redirect to check out function here. We don't really have any input parameters. We're just going to hard coat the skew ID in. So actually empty there. And then what we do for now is just console lock that were clicked. And then the button here we can simply do on click. And then we can specify the redirect to check out reference to our function. That is now compiled. And so, okay. That is all hooked up. The pipes are working. So let's have a look what we need to do next. Yeah, so we need to initialize Stripe. And then make Stripe available in our function later. So let's quickly give that a copy. So as I mentioned, because the Striper library is on the window object, we actually need to do that here in the effect hook. So I can actually we need a variable here. That would be helpful. And you can see now Stripe is not defined. That's because it's on the window. So if we give this a save now, that's all good. Warning, yeah. Okay, Stripe. And now we can, can you see that? If I ask people, I'm just going to say it needs to be bigger. That's a good question. So what we need to do is redirect to checkout. But actually, let me, maybe zoom in here and give you a quick. So what you can see is actually the Stripe redirect to checkout returns a promise because what happens here is we're actually sending off a request to Stripe with the skew ID with our publishable key, the quantity, all of that. And then Stripe goes off and we evaluate does this skew ID actually belong to the account with this publishable key?  And then once that was successful, we return a checkout session back to the client which is then used to redirect off to the checkout. And so the reason why this is a promise, if there was an error, for example, we actually return back instead of redirecting off, we return back an error object to you when the promise resolves. So on the result object, you can then extract the error message if there was one. Cool. So we actually want to, because we have a promise here, we can use async await. So that is what we're going to do. And as I mentioned, we can extract the error object from the results. You know, because we're using await here, we need to declare our function asasync. Okay. That looks good. Now we get a warning because the error is actually not used. You know, to get rid of that, we just simply do install, warn, paste, and get rid of that. Cool. Now, is that it? I think that might be it. Let's give that a reload just to be fresh. Actually, you can see a stripe generated warning here.  Cool. Now, if we click here, in order to use checkout, you must set an account or business name. Okay. This is actually a pretty helpful error message. So the error message actually links us off into our Stripe account. We can just thaws. I know I'm selling ebooks, just came to mind right now. Now, okay, I think that is the only one. Let's give that a try again. Here we are. We send that request to Stripe. We can assume in here a little. And now, we can use any Stripe test card. I have them here in a sort of auto-expander. Boom. And now, in test mode, where Google wants to save it. And as you can see, I didn't change the result URL. So, yeah, this page doesn't exist. So we would actually have to modify that here. And I guess what we could do is we could go to local host. Was it 8,000? What was it? Yes. 8,000. And then we have page 2. So actually, page 2 on success. Let's go there. And if it's not successful, we just no, sorry, for the cancel URL, we just go back to our index page. Now, let's quickly see if that works. Note what success must start with, oh, yes. Okay. Okay. Now that isn't secure, but let's try that. Cool. And we can actually go back here cancel URL. Cool. So that worked fine. How are we on time? Five minutes. Yeah, so there's kind of two things we could do now. We could actually take this and deploy it to Netlify. If you're interested in that, we could do that. Or alternatively, we could look at using the Stripe API to retrieve all the products we have on the account using GraphQL as Thomas laid out earlier and sort of built a dynamic version that serves up all the products we have in Stripe dynamically. So what's your preference? Looking at the GraphQL. Okay. I'm not going to hook it in, but actually we can so I've written a tutorial here in Gatsby. And so what we've done right now is sort of the easy one button example. And then we can look at the advanced example where we're importing SKUs via a source plugin. Let's see. So as Thomas mentioned a source plugin, what it does is at build time it goes off to the Stripe API. It pulls the data about our products and SKUs from Stripe and then makes it available as static data. I believe it's just JSON that is stored as part of the build process into our page. So in the end it's static but it's sort of dynamic at build time. And actually the cool thing we can do is that Stripe generates webhooks when products are changed for example in the dashboard and we can actually point that webhook at a Netlify build hook to then automatically rebuild our page pulling in that new content. And so we can actually set up this continuous deployment with our static page and I think JSON has actually done a pretty cool example where he's built a clock that literally redeploys I think every second like rebuilds every second and sort of shows you that idea of you probably wouldn't do that in real life but the idea that building this based on some trigger is actually a pretty valid approach. So what we can do then here is we can use the Gatsby source Stripe plugin we say we want to pull in all the SKUs at build time and now in this case actually the SKUs can't be accessed with our publishable key so here what we actually would do is we would generate a restricted key and the restricted key can access, can read our products and SKUs and then we would put that into an environment variable and later on for example with Netlify you could specify it as a build variable in the process. And once we've done that what we can actually do that's the .nf here we can create a component that lists all our SKUs and Thomas mentioned there's sort of different queries so here we use a static query and we can then query all the SKUs for our products what we want to get is all the Stripe SKUs we go down in the etcher so at build time what the plugin actually does is go off to Stripe get the data and then insert the nodes into kind of our unified GraphQL API within Gatsby and then we can specify exactly all the attributes that we want we need the ID, the SKU ID later that's what we need to tell Stripe about the currency, the price and the name of the SKU and then we can simply render a component with the return data that maps all of our SKUs and here just outputting the name of the SKU in a paragraph cool I think we're at time what's interesting there I mean we can look at this so we would then have, and here I'm still in the tutorial using a class component and we can actually look I think I have this deployed so if we look at the advanced example here now we have three products and when I click the buy me button depending on that we go off to buy that product there's also an example that builds a cart you can build that in as well if you want to support multiple products buying but here really what it does is it renders and this component here what you've seen if we go back this component renders I've called it SKU card and then the SKU card again has here our async function redirect to checkout and the SKU in this case is now handed in from the SKU card so when we generate the SKU card we render it with the SKU ID as a parameter on that component and then on the onclick event we actually hand that in and so build this once and kind of hand it off to our marketing or operations team whatever and they can for example then use the Stripe dashboard or some content management system to modify the data and when that happens a web org is fired which kicks off our redeploy pipeline to pull in the new data okay I'm going to stop here but again well actually I have I think I have some most lights sorry well it's really just Stripe is also hiring sorry we're not sponsoring I'm sort of hijacking this here but just want to mention we have a couple offices around the globe as well as remotely here the Singapore team has actually grown quite immensely it's a really sweet team if you're interested here in the second row there's actually a bunch of them sitting there if you want to chat with them or you know come up to me later yeah that's it from me thank you very much for having me and for your attention and please do tweet at me with your questions feedback this is very much a learning experience for me as well or you know shout out your questions now thanks so as I understood you were showing how to deploy Stripe or is it a Gatsby do you guys also use Gatsby at Stripe? do we use Gatsby at Stripe is that the question so we don't as far as I know we don't use it at Stripe so our documentation or things like that that sort of bespoke systems that we've built in terms of content management there is experiments going on sort of using Gatsby for tutorials for example I think that that would be a great use case if yeah I think anything really that isn't changed a lot but it's read a lot so you sort of you write it once and then you know it's basically just a bunch of read operations that's where Gatsby is really good as one example so that could be a potential area but as it stands today we don't use Gatsby in production at Stripe now but many of our users do well yeah that's a good question I mean so actually all of our dashboard is a react nowadays so it is a single page application and the dashboard actually uses GraphQL to access data so if you want to use GraphQL with Stripe you can just join us and then you can use it we're actively looking into that but yeah so that's sort of the stack for the dashboard react application we actually have the design team manages all of our react components so we have kind of an internal component library you know for anything in the dashboard buttons pop-ups all of that is kind of in our own internal component library and then we have the API which is built in Ruby I think custom version of Sinatra and then MongoDB kind of sitting all on AWS as it stands today your customers use like what size? yeah I think it's it's different there was this one good example which I now forgot I think it was some sanitary product so that was more kind of a medium-sized company you know kind of a good good size was working with sort of kind of marketing agency to set that all up but yeah I think in that space well as it stands today it's sort of more kind of the SMB world that is using it yeah I think it's that Harry's yeah the women's razor cool yeah so go talk to that guy he knows his stuff yeah awesome any more questions? on Gatsby not on Stripe cool I guess chatting networking yeah thank you


For me, behavioral finance or behavioral science or behavioral economics is all about understanding how we do and don't think particularly well. And what we get right, what we get wrong, when is our intuition absolutely wonderful and when do we have perfectly good mental shortcuts that we then apply in the wrong environment so they look irrational. That to me is how real people make real decisions in the real world. That's my favourite homegrown definition of behavioral science.


Thank you for staying with us on Y254 Updates. Tonight we are talking about coping with stress during the COVID-19 outbreak. Continue talking to us on all our social media platforms at Y254 channel. You can also talk to me at Patricia Murioki. Thank you Zakia for finding the time to be here with us tonight. I hope that you're staying. You've been safe. You're keeping safe. You're practicing every directive that has been given by the Ministry of Health. I do that to boots. I very hope that's enough. I don't think there's anything else I haven't done up to this moment, but we say there's always room for improvement. So we know this pandemic has found us in a time where we had not expected for it. So certain things have changed, certain patterns. How we used to live life has changed. We now know that we're supposed to be home by 9 p.m. We know that there are certain people who cannot go to work. They have to work from home. There are people who have also lost their jobs. So as we get this topic of coping with stress and how really people watching us tonight can learn how to do that, what really is important? How important is it to make sure that our mental health is okay, is on check during this pandemic? It is very important, Patricia, because at the end of it all, we need to remain sober because life is still going on. Good forbid, we are not saying that everyone will perish and we are not hoping for that and we don't even hope for that. So because of that, we don't want a situation where at the end of this all, then we come out like people who are actually sick.    So we have to remain mentally okay because we know that this is temporary. It is there to pass. So we shouldn't go with it. Let it go, but we remain sober. We remain healthy. We remain okay because we still have to function for the future. Okay, when you talk about stress, it's very difficult, I believe, for someone to even probably identify if they are going through stress. Probably if you're living with a loved one or in a homestead where you have more than one person, out then what do you look out for? To be able to identify and realize that Patricia is under stress and probably this is the type of help that she needs. Okay, thank you for that. Now there are so many things we have to look at and there are two categories of individual that we can talk about. The first category is the children and the second category is the adults. And their stress may be actually noted differently depending on what they do because we know that for children we can easily look at some of the things like how they play their play pattern. We can look at how they respond to directives that are given within the family setup. And we say for children mostly they become so irritable. And irritable it means that the children we know that they'll not want to sit at one place and just concentrate on something because they have this energy that is just they have extra energy and they need to use it and use it positively. So for them it's about going out to play, doing all these things, meeting friends. During that time when they're schooled they'll go to school and all this energy will be displaced there. But now because there's no school there within the house so they get irritated because they don't know what to do next. Rules have been formulated, they have to follow these rules. Even within the house setup they have for example to wash once all the time for them this is too much. So you realize that when they become a little bit adamant they don't want to do what their parent is advocating for. They don't know that this child is not okay because maybe initially they used to do it okay because it was not so often. But now when it's so often they get bored. So looking for that point where you see them that they're getting bored with certain activities that is one thing to tell you that they're actually going through stress because it is too much. The second thing when they become so irritable they cannot settle at one place or they become some of them will just be crying depending on the age like the young ones will just be crying all the time because they feel like they've been kept at one place and they want to get out and yet the rules do not allow. So when they become irritable they are not okay and the question will follow is what are we going to do about it? And when you come for the small children some of them will even have nightmares. You know depending on the situation because they may not have witnessed anything happening anything traumatic. But then when the rules are so strategic that to a point where they feel like they've been handcuffed then they may actually start developing nightmares. For some they'll even go through what we call repression going through the behavior that they used to have before and they actually overgrew them like bed weighting like you know thumbs are keying and all those things simply because they feel like they don't know the way out. So these are some of the native groups that will look at children insomnia or lack of sleep for some this one is actually very common that you realize some of them do not sleep and these days we know the pattern has changed very much that people actually stay almost overnight and the children are there too. So realize apart from that they may have a coordinated sleep simply because this is happening and sometimes they are patterned their routine pattern is actually messed up. Then when we go to the adults then there are some things that will look at even some of the adults actually become irritable but most of them will go through burnout. Now we always have a tendency of believing that burnout occurs when somebody for example has overworked himself or herself but no it can be the other way round even sitting in one place not knowing what to do can actually bring about burnout. Yes. So when you see this you realize that somebody may actually lose you know interest in the activities you know of choice that you want to do even bathing people don't bathe by the way these days that's so unfortunate we hear people are spending their whole day in pajamas and all that unless they have a meeting Zoom meeting which have become an in thing but these are some of the things and some of them especially those ones who have been laid off then you can imagine they go through a lot of emotional stress and some of them can be very aggressive and some of them may even go to an extent of you know involvement in drugs and substance abuse some of them may not be may have been alcoholic then but now all of a sudden they start drinking or they start drinking excessively they have been drinking but they were managing it it was normal but now they do it excessively and then you realize here there's a problem then when people become so aggressive like between the spouses somebody cannot ask the other partner a question this one becomes so like so angry at everything and you realize something is not right because when people become so angry they know something is not okay and these are some of the things we look at for grown-ups even in Somnia is there actually much or for some is even now hyposomnia hyposomnia where they just sleep they don't want to leave the bed you know somebody just sleeping because they don't know when I wake up where am I supposed to go but even in the process if they've lost their job and that's why this whole thing is happening then it's not good because they may actually sleep into depression so we need to take action there you've talked about very many areas and you've touched on children and some of the things that probably as a parent or as a guardian that you could try to pick on so now for a parent who has noticed that their child probably is going through all these stages for probably someone living with an adult and they feel that this person now sleeps more than they used to what now can we do now as a person around what now do you do to make sure that you're helping this person because we don't also to get to a point where by the stress now gets to tend to where it becomes depression exactly that's very true so again going with these categories again for the children the approach could be different in that knowing the activities of the children that they normally like you know you know performing then we say that when we notice or we pick these schools that they are actually sleeping into you know a lot of stress that may lead into for example even depression then we need to act we have to let first of all the children connect and this one we advocate for the grown-ups as well that connection is very important these days we're happy because at least we have all these gadgets the phones the laptops the computers and all that so when adults are having their meetings maybe through Zoom and Skype and all that we have also to allow children to connect with their peers and we can allow them for example time to have a phone call maybe through WhatsApp and even that depending on the age we have to monitor of course we have to see what is it that they are communicating with the other but then that's time to communicate with others is very important so we should not deny them the right to communicate because that way they are connected they get to hear from the others what they are doing and sometimes they even exchange ideas oh we did one two three and then the children can pick and also say mama we need to do one two three so that's very important the other thing is to keep on reassuring them and you cannot say we say you cannot pour from a cup that is empty you as a parent need to have your cup full you must have managed your own disasters to be able to help a child meaning you have to manage to be able to deal with your stress with your anxieties we know that this is something that has brought a lot of anxiety you know across board and even adults are also going through this but then for you to be able to help a child you need to manage your own anxiety and where you can't manage unknown as an individual or through the support of the family you have to seek help so that when you are okay you are able to help that child who is not okay so by helping this child it means you keep them connected you maintain help them maintain a daily routine you don't just let them because children are in the house then they can just do whatever the hell they want to do no let there be a routine we call it a new normal so develop a routine according to the new normal okay yeah they can have their mask on and play you know outside depending on the kind of people who are out there if you have a big compound let them play out there they don't need to have a mask if they are just themselves there nor any other intruder or visitor who is there but they can play ball and what I keep on telling physical activity is very important so as they play you are actually advocating for physical activity which is very important for them remember we invite them to go to the parks to go to school to jump all over the field but then the little that they can do let them do even when you don't have enough place outside even within the house you can even push your seats and let the children have fun don't say I want don't want my seat to be touched I don't know they are clean this is not time for cleanliness I mean cleanliness is important but you know there's that you don't become so strict with your staff simply because you feel like I don't know my coach needs to be to stay like this because maybe you are a perfectionist and whoever you are no you just try to create space for children because they need to have this participate in this physical activity you can dance with them you can you know jump up with them you can play ball with them all these things are possible even within the shortest you know the limited space possible okay so I would like us to talk about stigmatization as we also probably take some comments from social media we have had the CS for health say that they are now implementing home based isolation so now for people who are going to find themselves with patients or with loved ones who have COVID-19 we've had stigmatization be a topic since the virus the first case of COVID-19 was reported in the country how now can these people help this person recover through the recovery process and how can the society come in to make sure that we stop and end COVID-19 stigma a very good question Patricia because I have never understood where this stigma is coming from quote in quote this is flu it is not the kind of deserts you should actually look at it and say because of one to three this disease has befallen someone anyone can get to this it doesn't choose in gender status, class or race it just cuts across board so this stigma I think it actually may be coming in because any time there's something new people do not really understand the entire makeup of the disease so they may associate it for us unfortunately we are Africans there are so many things we believe in and so they may actually associate it with maybe your caste maybe switchcraft maybe something that you are not doing right in your family and that's why this is befalling you but that's not the case and that understanding we say that can only be done through psychoeducation so I say as we embark on home based care then the Ministry of Health has to look at something very important how do they encompass counselors in this whole setup because you cannot just let people go with their sick person in the house and then they have no idea how to actually deal with the psychological part of this person they can deal with it physically you know maybe emotionally through giving this person support but again psychologically this person they may not the caregiver may not actually understand and the patient may not understand so we say that it were possible and we say this is very very important for me I don't say we are possible it is possible because there are mental health workers outside there so many who actually just ready waiting to be called in and to help sometimes in fact most on the time they do it pro bono so let them come in of course we don't I don't sit here and advocate that it should be pro bono everything people are getting teller is anyway but where we can help we do help actually and the most important let them accompany these you know health care workers these people who are taking care of the sick because any time we say that somebody has to remain in the house it means that maybe at one point there will be a nurse who will be coming into check and where there are reason maybe they are giving directives from the hospital that this is what you are supposed to do because when a person calls they're supposed to be giving all the information on how to handle this person so there should be a special area where a health I mean a counselor or a psychologist can be slotted in so that they are giving them to come in adhere to all the directives but able to help this maybe once a week or twice a week to come and help this family psychoeducate the family give them the psychological support show them give them the tenets on how to deal with such institution to minimize stress you know and also to minimize harm because by minimizing stress it means that this person understand what is corona all about what is covid all about what am I supposed to do why am I actually in and also to alleviate that pain that is associated with stigma because when a person is actually educated on what covid is all about and what it entails and how it comes in and how it goes then they may not actually feel that this is you know something so horrible or something out of the norm it's just a disease like any other and we can deal with it so counselors, psychologists have to be given a slot to be able to be able to help this individual and they say that one is very much possible and I sit here advocating for that okay let us look at some of the comments that we have we have solokis say information as stress CTE me and Zajana so for such a person who is watching us tonight and probably this person has found themselves in very many faces in life where they found themselves stress how can they cope now with stress we're not only now addressing the covid-19 stress but for such a person watching us tonight this is what they have expressed what do you think can work for them soloh has said there because I'm looking at it from a very different perspective to mention a stress it's because this person has the inner resources to deal with stress people are never the same that's what we need to understand it doesn't mean that even during a pandemic like this everyone will go down you know so stressed I don't some people actually are making the best after this whole thing they come up with new skills identify their new skills you know they've tapped their inner resources and come up with some of them are cooks I know Patricia what you have to I know you too you are good at that I congratulate you for what you are doing thank you so basically it doesn't mean that because it's a pandemic everyone will go through stress there are some people who will go through what we call eustress eustress is positive stress okay there's what we call distress which is now the negative stress now eustress is mostly temporary is not permanent something that a stress just happens you know comes in simply because a situation is temporarily happening but when it's over the stress will be over okay so most people have the inner resources to deal with this so for these ones they say lianza so it means they are able to cook these are the people we need to even you know have them to help help others and help others we are not able to do that and I'm sure they have a word or two to tell this other so when we get them we tell them can you be part of us can we be able to help these and give them you know the tenets of how you deal with the situation because you may have actually the strength that the other person does not have okay thank you very much Zakia for really finding the time to come and talk about this I hope for everyone who is watching us tonight you've been able to take one or two from what Zakia has said tonight please if you find yourself in a situation where probably you're going through stress find the coping mechanism such as maybe try to read a book try to talk to someone I think talking to someone is always the best therapy that really works for people try to get out and even if you can go for a workflow in every directory that has been given just put on a mask and go and just be in the presence probably of just some good environment and all that is going to work for us as we all continue fighting COVID-19 all I can say from Y to 54 we wish you a very good night my name is Patricia Murioki


Hello and welcome to this month's non-farm payrolls webinar on 6th of February, Friday 6th of February 2015 with me, Michael Hueson, and my colleague Colin Szczewczynski in Canada. It's going to be our pleasure to walk you guys through today's or this month's non-farm payrolls data. To be quite honest, I think it feels a little bit like an empty climax because we've been so focused on Greece this week that really we haven't really thought too much about what effects the non-farm payrolls number that we're going to get today out of the US will have, but also what effect that the Canadian Jobs Report will have because there's definitely going to be a little bit of push-pull on those numbers, particularly on the dollar Canada which has been absolutely hammered over the past few months on the back of the weakening oil price. But for the time being, let's look at what we're expecting first and foremost for non-farm. So I'll bring my Bloomberg up and we can see the numbers right in front of us here. Now hopefully all you guys can see my Bloomberg here. I'm going to make the window as big as possible. So basically we've got the expectation here and changing non-farm payrolls. Bloomberg are expecting around about 228,000 which is obviously down from the December number of 252. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 5.6 percent, but I think the main focus this week is less about the actual headline number and more about what the average hourly earnings data will be. Now there is an expectation here of a rise in average hourly earnings of 0.3 percent and the year-on-year number to rise to 1.9 percent. Now if that's a weak number then I think there's potential for the dollar to sell off. And I know you and I have talked about this before Colin, haven't we? You seem to think that we will still get our US rate rise this year. We just might see it at the back end of the year whereas I'm of the opinion that we won't see one at all. So if you'd like to expand upon your reasons, you now have the floor. Thank you. Yes, I do still think that the US will raise rates back up too. Probably I'm now thinking about 1 percent by the end of the year. They could do that by three-quarter point increase starting in September. Originally there's been a lot of talk and even through this week from various Fed members about not only when are they going to start raising interest rates but how are they going to do it. One scenario I had thought of was that if you started in June you could do a quarter point increase every other meeting. So there's two scenarios you could follow. Some members say start raising interest rates and do it slowly. And some members say well let's just hold off and do it more quickly later. So I think that's a battle we could see play out among different factions within the Fed over the course of this year. So do you think the US economy is strong enough to withstand a rate rise when everyone else is cutting? At this point, yes. They do. They haven't gone the wrong way. The question is how long is that going to last? And what happens with the US dollar? So far the US dollar has moved up enough to basically does do the equivalent of a couple of interest rate increases here. Does it continue to rise or does it come back off? I mean if we get a low number here and the US dollar will probably start to come back off and then I do think you'll see it at least push out to September. Okay. So let's look at the numbers because we saw the GDP number last week, it's 2.6%. We saw yesterday's trade deficit numbers, minus $46 billion, which suggests that exports remain fairly weak. But more importantly, let's look at the retail sales numbers over the course of the last quarter. So I've actually been negative if you actually look at these numbers here and the consumer confidence has been rising, retail sales have been falling. Now next week we've got US retail sales for January and they're expected to decline again. Yet consumer confidence is at 102.9%. For me Colin, we're talking about the data and you're talking about consumer confidence but all the data we've seen thus far suggest to me that inflation is falling and we're just not getting what I would suggest is the actual growth going in the opposite direction. Yeah, I know things do seem like they're slowing here and that's why I find it interesting when all the Fed members come out this week and are still saying that they're on track and they still want to do it. I think they're going to go later, I'm not convinced that they're going to go as soon as they've been talking and yet the numbers are slowing down. I think though they will focus more on the X energy numbers so we probably want to focus on those. But I'll be honest, even core inflation has been a bit soft lately. Yeah, exactly. I looked at the prices paid on manufacturing this week and it dropped to 35 as well below expectations. We look at the employment components of non-manufacturing, it dropped to 51.6 from 56.5. You look at what's happening with respect to the oil price and the likely drag back of all the drag down effects on that. I suppose it's really a question of how much of a time lag you think you'll get on these oil price declines going forward. I think so. Yeah, and also on that, Michael, the time lag between the Hemic effect where you have the sharp drop-off in employment in prices at the beginning with the oil price crack before it ignites the rest of the economy, it's a matter of how long does this lag take before the positive effects work out. There is a delay and that's probably going to impact also how long it takes for the fed to raise rates because at some point, historically these crashes, it's a short-term negative but it's a long-term major positive for stocks and for the economy. I mean, I think you have to put the unemployment rate in the context as well of the participation rate. Yeah, absolutely. In the UK here, we've got a fairly low unemployment rate and we've got a very high participation rate. In the US, you've got a very low participation rate and a low unemployment rate and I think the more important rate is the under-employment rate, which is 11.2, which is hardly budged. They talk about a tightening labour market, well, I don't see it. I still think there's a significant amount of slack there and the fed does have an inflation mandate and they're missing it by a mile. Yeah, certainly on the headline numbers, they're going to be low for a while and probably for a year with this as the oil price works its way through. Okay, so let's look at some charts and look at some of the key levels because I think this is basically what I think the guys on here want to look at. Certainly looking at the S&P, we're right on the top of that right shoulder. This is around about 2068, 2070. So I think really what we've got to think about here is what would a good number first and foremost do with respect to the dollar, but also what does it do with respect to the stock market? With the stock market, I think we're in a range. The bottom of that range is highlighted by this series of lows that I've linked through here and the 200 day moving average at 1975. If we get a good number, will that actually be stock negative because of the fact that it might potentially bring a rate hike nearer? I don't think the actual headline number is the important number here. I think the important number is the participation rate and the wages data. So what might happen is you may get a fairly good headline number, which will be fairly positive from an economic point of view and a dollar point of view, but you might get a very weak average earnings number. So what will happen is you'll flick between the extremities of the range. I certainly don't think there's an awful lot of upside left in US markets. Earning is notwithstanding simply because we haven't really had some earnings that up in particularly good, Boeing and Apple notwithstanding. Obviously we had LinkedIn and Twitter last night, which were fairly good, but it's not been, it's been fairly unremarkable, I would suggest. There are not huge burn burners in terms of earnings and the guidance also has not been overwhelming either. Perhaps one thing we can mention on the headline number, what we've been looking at for a long time, the sweet spot, 200,000 to 250,000. Over 250,000, the Fed has to raise rates sooner, below 200,000, they'll probably go much later. You and I, Michael, are both below the street. We're both down in the year 205 and I was 210, and both of us have been factoring in a slowdown on related to the layoffs in the oil and gas sector. Yeah, I think that's right. I think we'll get a weak number because of that. It also ties in a little bit to my dollar weakness theory because if we look at dollar weakness, I think this is where it feeds in. We've had a breakout on cable. We've had a breakout on cable around 152.80. I don't know whether you've seen it. We've got what I would call a potential double bottom breakout or a potential breakout on a triangle. We've broken higher. Now potentially, now that we've broken above 152.80, which is essentially our breakout level here. This is a four-hour chart I'm looking at, ladies and gents. And you can see it here. I've drawn a blue line through the highs here, but I've also drawn a horizontal line through here. Now, irrespective of how you measure that, I think as long as you stay above this black line here, which is around about 152.60, 152.70, if you measure this up, this puts us at around about 155, 156, which is this series of lows through here. So potentially, I think over the course of the next few trading sessions, we could actually see further dollar weakness. But how are we going to get that? Are we going to get that through a weak headline number, or are we going to get it through a weak wages number, or are we just going to get it naturally because of the natural positioning of the market? I think the US dollar, regardless, had gotten way over extended here and was overdue for a correction. It was over extended again, pretty much everything. And we're starting to see the rebound. We're seeing the, well, the incredible volatility was basically a stabilization of rebound in crude oil. We're seeing it in cable. We're seeing it in the euro bouncing up off 111 to closer to 1415. We're seeing the, even the US dollar CAD has come back off a little bit off the tie. Yeah, let's have a quick look at that. There's a natural rollover, but a soft employment number could accelerate that. Let's have a look at the dollar CAD because I think this is actually a nice little pattern here. Can you see that? We had a bit of a top hit put in here. We've got a potential bearish engulfing here. It's not quite a key reversal day, but it's pretty close. And we've got what I would suggest is a bit of a neckline around 123.60 on the daily. Look at their rollover on the Cucasic. So it does look as if it's starting to roll over. Let's look at that on a weekly. And again, look at that. So that could actually be potentially very interesting on the dollar Canada if we break below 123.60. We could actually get a pretty good sell off there. So I certainly think, ladies and gentlemen, it's worth keeping an eye on that. They're just there on that, Michael? Yeah, go on. On the Canadian jobs, I think Canadian jobs are going to get hit even harder than the US jobs on the oil patch crunch. And so I was looking at negative $15,000 on that. The streets are plus five. It's plus five. It's right here, yeah? Yeah, I'm looking. I posted my guess it's negative 15. OK, what about the unemployment rate? Tick up to 6.78. 6.78, yeah. OK, all right, well, we'll keep an eye on that. We'll keep an eye on that. And have a quick look at Eurodollar before we get to the numbers. We're still just over two and a half, just under two and a half minutes. Eurodollar is slightly different. Again, this is a four hour chart. And we're pushing again against the limits around 115. But we can actually see that potentially we are starting to trend and squeeze a little bit higher. I think what we do need to do is break above this 115.30 area. But again, in my weekly video on Tuesday, I suggested we might get a squeeze to 117. Now, whatever you think about what's going on in Greece at the moment, you could argue it's Euro negative. Undoubtedly it is. But I don't think we're going to get any form of color on that for at least a couple of weeks, which gives us, I think, a little bit of what I would call scope to squeeze higher on Eurodollar. And potentially squeeze back to this series of highs just below 117, around about 116.80. And certainly if you think that the pound is going to go high against the dollar, then you've really got to think that potentially it's going to go higher against the euro as well, if not as much. But certainly I think any dips in Eurodollar, you're probably going to find a few bids around the mid-113s if we get one. Otherwise, whatever the number is, I'm still slightly dollar bearish, only because I think the market is so one way in terms of being dollar positive that any sort of rally in the dollar could well see a little bit of profit taking. We've got a similar sort of thing on the dollar index here as well, a significant area of support around about 93.56 if we make that a weekly chart. Again, we can see that on the weekly chart. It does suggest that potentially we could be building up for a bit of a sell-off. Did you put up an RSI or a stochastic on that, Michael? Do I have time to do that? We've got 43 seconds. What was that dollar index? OK, don't worry about it. We'll show it later. We'll show it later. And somebody said to see the RSI and the stochastics are rolling down, too, on that. OK, so I'll just quickly put one on there. So we all remind that it's rolling down. It's rolling down. I mean, it's almost at 50, so. Yeah, it's almost at 50. OK, so basically, we've got 15 seconds. So I'm going to pull my Bloomberg over to here so you can see all the numbers as they come in. Whoops, hang on a second. And hopefully we'll get some color in 3, 2, 1, and go. 2, 5, 7, wow. Well, look at our revision, though. Look at our revision, 3, 2, 9. Look at 3, 2, 9 to December. Huge, that is massively dollar positive. But the unemployment rates ticked higher, 5.7% on the unemployment rate. Let's look at the average earnings numbers, 2.2. Oh, my word, look at that. So that is massively dollar positive. Massively dollar positive, that number. So let's go. Yes, that's a big uptake in inflation. And that's even with losing high-paying jobs in the oil sector. Yeah, it is. So basically, that blows my theory out of the water. So now, really, it's a question of where do we go from here? Certainly, I think Eurodollar is going to test lower. So it basically brings us back to what I was saying earlier about the mid-1 13s as being a support area. And look, that's where we are. It looks like we're heading back to this line down here. Looking back on the cable, I think there's certainly potential for us to come all the way back to this area of resistance. Well, what was resistance is now support around about $152.60, and maybe even down to $152.00. I certainly don't think that we're going to get a significant rebound today in cable of Eurodollar on the back of those numbers. The market is going to want to test the appetite for pushing the dollar higher, I think, this afternoon, unless you have a different view. But I think on that basis, we're going to want to see what the appetite is for pushing the dollar higher. Let's have a look at Dolly Yen, because I think that's quite interesting as well. You're not even speaking. Yeah, of course it would do. So we've got Dolly Yen again here. You've got a pretty muted reaction, to be quite honest. On that sort of number, I would expect Dolly Yen to be an awful lot higher on the back of that. Given how sensitive it is to the bond market. A number like that is going to make you think, well, surely a US rate rise is sooner rather than later. We should push yields up. And Dolly Yen should react to that, and it's not reacting to it. So let's see if the US 10-year note has been sold aggressively on the back of that. And yeah, it has. Look at that. I mean, that's a massive sell-off. So basically, for those of you who don't know, and I'm sure most of you do, yields move inversely to prices. So a sharp sell-off on the US bond market will basically push yields higher. And as a result, interest rate expectations bring forward interest rate expectations as well. And certainly, there's potential for a little bit of a topping pattern there. Let's look at the Canadian jobs numbers, Colin, because I think that could be interesting as well. So the headline number was really big. 35,000, well above the 5,000. If we break it down, though, look at full-time jobs, it was the loss of almost 12,000. So that's pretty much in line with what I was calling. And you're looking at a 47,000 increase in part-time employment, which basically offsets that that revised 46,000 increase from the previous month. So I think you've got some distortion in here from part-time jobs. And actually, I'm surprised to see that considering that we've got targets shutting down, there were other big layoffs announced in Canada during the month, even though it's side of the all-sector stuff. Maybe there's a lag in there. Maybe there's a lag. Because you also had the fact that Target, basically, was pulling out of Canada as well. And you would think that that would actually have a negative effect on the employment picture. When is that happening? The liquidation sales started yesterday. And apparently already, since they put it at the announcement, absenteeism has gone way up. People are bothering to come in, even if they haven't actually been laid off. They're not really working there anymore. So you'll probably see that hit the numbers over the next couple of months. OK. The participation rate in the US has jumped from 62.7 to 62.9. So that's an interesting number. Let's just close that down there. So all in all, I'm a fairly good set of numbers. Certainly fairly dollar-positive. And it certainly has affected the bond market. Let's look at Brent Crude. Because I was talking about that earlier with respect to one of the clients and suggesting what to expect from that. And I think there's potential for that to push higher on the back of those jobs numbers. Certainly positive in terms of demand relative to supply. Let's not forget also that we've had seven successive monthly declines. And I think we're well overdue a bit of a pullback. So from that perspective, if we can break this high here that we saw earlier this week, around about $58.5, then we could actually see a move higher in Brent towards around about $65 a barrel over the course of the next few trading sessions. Certainly we've got a significant area of support going through this area here, just above $53 a barrel. So keep an eye on $53 a barrel. We're getting a little bit of a crossover on the two moving averages here, which are the 50 and the 200. So momentum is starting to turn positive on the four hour chart, which would seem to suggest that if we get a break through this resistance level here, then we could go higher. But at the moment, there does appear to be a bit of a cap around about $58.5. And certainly there does appear to be a little bit of weakness. And maybe given the fact that the oscillator is overbought, we could actually slip back first before we go up again. Certainly worth keeping on that little price range there that's starting to develop on the four hour chart. Let's quickly go back to Dollar Canada for you, Colin, because I know that you probably want to have another look at that. It's been a pretty neutral response, isn't it, really, in terms of the CAD chart. What would you say is the likely, what's the risk there, that we go back higher or we continue to drift lower? I think we're going to drift lower here, Michael. We've had a, even with the failure, or even with the US dollar rallying, it popped up from, I'm looking on a miniature, it went from 12380, popped to 125 even, failed at the 125 round number and started to come back. That's actually a lower high than those three candles there at 126. And it's already starting to drop back. So it took the worst that they could throw at it and still couldn't even get through 125. So that's telling me that there's one minute, so you see the spike down and the spike up and now it's settling back into the middle again. But basically that's like, anything that bears could throw at it, it took and still failed at the lower high and around number. And so that's looking to me like there's a pretty solid top forming in there. Yeah, it looks like it's pivoting around the middle of this moving average that I've got on the chart here, which is around about 120, hang on, 124.45 give or take. If I can actually keep the mouth still for long enough. Yeah, around about 124.45 give or take there. So there's a bit of a pivot going on there at about 120, between 124.40 and 124.50. So certainly worth keeping an eye on that there. While you're listening, ladies and gentlemen, if there's any particular market you'd like me and Colin to have a look at on your behalf, please feel free to use the chat facility and sling a question over because this isn't just about me and Colin basically chewing the fat and talking about the markets, this is just as much for your benefit as it is for us. So just been asked about the US 30, so let's go and do that. And again, it's a similar sort of story, I think, with respect to the S&P. We're pushing back against these series of highs through 2015, January and the beginning of this month. Let's have a quick look through that there. 17,900, yeah, between 17,950 and there's certainly a barrier there. And for me, I think we're still in a range here, Colin. I'm not really convinced one way or the other that we're ready to push to new highs or new record highs at the moment because when you look at the earnings and you look at the strength of the dollar and you look at the potential for a rate rise, essentially what you're saying is how strong is the US economy to be able to stand, to hold stock valuations at their current levels? And I still think the jury's out on that. I certainly don't think that we're seeing very, very good jobs growth. And yes, we've seen a fairly positive average early earnings figure, which is fairly positive, but will that in itself be enough to prompt the Fed to raise rates? I'm still not totally convinced by one data point. Yeah, I still think they're going to, it just is a general long-term program of, they need to get interest rates at some point back up to 1%, I think, just to give them some flexibility. I mean, one of the reasons why banks like Canada and Australia and Norway have been able to step in and cut rates now the way they have over the last few weeks was because previously they had raised rates a little bit to give themselves some room to work with. So I think eventually the Fed's gonna have, they're gonna want to do it just for their own operations. And I don't think a 1% interest rate would kill the United States economy. What would it do to the dollar? Probably run the dollar up close to 100. I think the Europeans continue with their QE, which you would expect. We're already at 94, 95, I think you could see 100 even on that, let's say over, towards by now in the end of the year. Okay, I've just been asked about the FTSE 100, the UK 100, and are we ready to break to new highs yet? Let's look at the price action around the levels we saw earlier this week. Certainly there's still a barrier at 6,900. I don't think anyone can dispute that. Let's get rid of this line here, we don't need it anymore. What we can do is stick this horizontal line in through here. 6,905 still appears to be that proverbial line in the sand, but even if we get above that, 6,950 is the all-time high. What's gonna take us above that? Is it gonna be more stimulus in China? Is it gonna be a rebound in commodity prices? Or is it just gonna be straightforward QE from the ECB when they start printing next month? I think at the moment, we've still got a natural barrier at 6,900, but what I would say is that each subsequent dip here is starting to get a little bit shallower. We had an early attempt this week to get above it, we failed, I think with all the uncertainty with surrounding grease, are we gonna push to new highs? I think we'll struggle to get there. I think as long as we stay above 6,000, the longer we stay above 6,800, the more likely it is we will eventually push higher. But at the moment, I wouldn't stake my mortgage on it. Yeah, the 6,900 has been looking pretty formidable there. And then there's an all-time high and 7,000 where I'm never kicking in. So you're into that 100 point, pretty serious resistance band there where you could peak above it, but you may still take a couple of times before you get through. And I look at the stochastic. So on the one hand, if you look from the beginning of the month, you've got basically an ascending triangle forming of those lower higher lows, which is positive. But on the flip side, you've got your stochastic's over-bottom rolling down, which is negative. Now, this is interesting looking on it. It's a four-hour chart. So there you've got higher lows on the other side. It's a little better in terms of the stochastics and the momentum. It's almost a megaphone pattern. Is it a diamond? It is, isn't it? It looks like a megaphone or a diamond. Yeah, interesting. There's certainly something going on there and it's certainly worth keeping an eye on. But I think if you were trying to figure it out. Yeah, I think the market at the moment is trying to figure out which way to push this, but it certainly does feel that the market is probably starting to get a little bit short. So we could get a spike higher through 6,900 to 6,935. The key question, I think, is what's going to be the catalyst to drive it through 6,950? And I'm not sure what that catalyst would be given what's going on with respect to Greece at the moment. I still think that there's potential for a massive accident, a Grexit, unless one side backs down. And at the moment, neither side looks like doing that. So it's really a question of what a potential impact the Greek exit would have on the rest of the markets. And that could be, you know, our next little black swan. So on that, Michael, do you think that, I mean, obviously we've seen over the last few years any kind of trouble in Europe has sent capital into things like gold. If capital was to start leaving Europe, could some of it be finding its way into the UK or is the UK too close to the United States? No, it's definitely finding its way into the UK. If you look at UK gilts and the yields on that, the yields are at the lowest levels that they've ever been. Certainly with respect to gold, this is a little bit of a concern for me. The fact that we've rolled over and it's coming back down below the 200-day moving average as well. So I think maybe there's a little bit more in terms of legs with respect to this gold price decline. Maybe we'll come back to 1233. And the results? Look at the declining highs here. That doesn't really bode well. We broke to the top side. We didn't actually get to my minimum price objective. We got to 61.8% of it, but it does appear to be that we are now starting to trade lower. So if we drill down onto the four-hour chart, we can actually draw a line through the highs here. So first of all, we need to break this downtrend. And the only way that we're gonna be able to do that is if we break back above 1275, 1280. And at the moment, we don't look as if we're doing that. We're in a nice little downward channel at the moment. And the momentum does appear to be pointing towards a slow decline towards this 1230 area that are highlighted on the daily chart here. So I think with respect to the FTSE 100, sir, the jury's out on that. We could squeeze higher, but I'm struggling to find a catalyst to really push us through 6,950. Certainly, I think that any short positions are gonna start building up around 6,910. And I think for that reason alone, I think we could find dips well sought after. But what's gonna be the extra catalyst to drive us through that? I'm not 100% convinced about that. I certainly wouldn't stake my mortgage on it. So is there anything else, ladies and gents, that you'd like us to have a look at before we sign off? I think we've pretty much... Have we covered everything? I'm hoping that we've covered everything. I think we've covered all the mean ones, that's for sure. I think we have, yeah. Okay, well, listen, if T-bond. So you want, with a 30-year, or the, I'm getting asked to hold hosts and stuff now, crew WTI, T-bond short, okay. So you want me to do the 30-year, I'm guessing that's what you mean by the T-bond. They're probably gonna be pretty much of a muchness because the yield curve's fairly flat in terms of US markets. But again, I think you've got a similar layout through here. A nice little potential reversal pattern forming on the T-bond. We look at that low there, or you could even draw a line through here. Could even argue that potentially we've potentially broken lower on the four-hour. If we look at the technicals and the oscillators on the T-bond, I'm gonna use my slow stochastic. It's one of my more accurate ones. What, not that one. That one's just a little bit too sensitive. Slow stochastic I want. That's just too noisy, that one. Okay, so we've got this one. So for me, the T-bond is near a key support level. It's been trading sideways. And at the moment, it does appear to be finding a little bit of support around about these lows around about 148, 148, between 148 and 149. WTI is probably gonna play out on a similar way to Brent, which I covered earlier. Not quite looking out of this downtrend that we've been looking at over the course of the past few months since the end of September highs. Colin, I can hear a lot of background noise. Can you sort out your audio, please? So we've got a downtrend line here. Yeah, it is. Potential bearish candle there, but the fact that we've actually broken above the highs of the last two days makes me think that until such times as we break above the highs that we saw earlier this week, the risk remains still for a little bit of a pullback on WTI in the same way that we have with Brent. And before we potentially break higher, but certainly think that the risk remains towards the upside at the moment with respect to oil prices, simply because we've had such a long decline. All right, I'm getting asked, what else have I been asked? Let's see, we've got NASDAQ, NASDAQ. Let's look at the NASDAQ. There we go. For the last little while, it's been pretty range-bound between, yeah. Yeah, again. 4,100 and 4,300. Yeah, we're looking at that, and you look at the line through the highs, still resistance through the highs, and we actually haven't got back above the January highs either. So again, it's going to take significant effort, I think, to get back through these highs. So for me with respect to US markets, it's really a question of how much more upside is there relative to what we're seeing in Europe? And I think for me, yes, you can talk about the QE from the ECB, how much of that is going to leak out. I think a lot of that could potentially leak out into the UK and the FTSE 100, simply because if you look at the FTSE 100 and the NAS performance relative to the DAX, it's underperformed quite significantly. So therefore, there's certainly much more potential for upside, but at the moment, it's going to take a significant amount of effort to get it through that 69-10 barrier. Okay. Right, well, I think that's pretty much it, unless you've got anything else you want me to cover, Colin? No, that's great. I think we've really gone through everything well today. Okay, cool. Well, next week, we've got our honest debates, which is on Thursday at 3 p.m. So if you want to join me and Colin next week on Thursday, you can just look it up on the education section of the cmcmarkets.co.uk website. Otherwise, thanks very much for your company this month. And if we don't speak to you next Thursday, we'll see you pretty much same time, same place in March, where hopefully we'll also find out what the next ECB rate decision is, but also find out whether or not that jump in average earnings was a one-off or symptomatic of a new trend. All right, thanks a lot, guys. And as I say, we'll post this on YouTube. Otherwise, we'll see you again next week. Thanks a lot. Thanks, everyone.


One of the coolest things that I got told, I got paperwork at like my three year mark again, LOR, and it was given to me from a senior master sergeant. And after he gave me my paperwork, he was like, hey, sit down. And then he's like, what's going on?  And I was just like, oh, so I like explain stuff. And I was just like, yeah, I'm just like frustrated with this and that, you know, it's like I'm discouraged. And he was like, I agree with a lot of those things. And I was like, oh my gosh, it like blew my mind. That was the first time I'd had like upper supervision really like agree with me.  And so then he said, he had done, I think at that point he was at 19 or 20 years and he was like


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