What is going on ladies and gentlemen and welcome to another episode of let's talk crypto with myself Bitcoin J and of course I have with me here the BTC Queen. How are you doing today Queen? All right, take it so we got taking with us today, which is gonna be talking some Bitcoin and I'm hoping that Tigger sees a bounce for Bitcoin today You know, you know, I had to go there, you know, I had to hit hit hit it with that But yeah, so today we'll be covering a bunch of stuff I think some of the some of the main things that we'll be talking about today is of course the price of Bitcoin Currently sitting at 31 that I'm sorry at 30,155 dollars as you guys know Usually when we go live the price goes up So we'll be monitoring that today to see as As we continue this live stream by the end of it if the price goes up might open up a trade and everything right here at that This current price 30,155 to see what happens Not financial advice by the way. I will also be looking at the rest of the coins and we're gonna be talking about XRP There is a big thing last week if you guys didn't hear about it. I'm sure you probably did But a judge ruled that XRP was not a security and we'll go a little bit more into details on that case Today we're gonna go over the economic calendar talk about the inflation report that we got last week Of course, we're gonna do the news with the beat with Tigger with BTC Tigger today and and at the end of this we're gonna do a market analysis where we break down everything that's going on and Look at some trade setups and then of course a Q&A So if you guys have any questions about anything if you're tuned in live right now If you have any questions about anything with crypto drop it in the comments and we will Try to answer it if we have an answer for you now Another another a breaking news not breaking but we are now officially live on Spotify Apple And anywhere else where you can listen to your podcast We're officially on there last week's episode is on there That's the first one that we uploaded to that and then today's episode will also be on there So if you're currently listening through the podcast Thank you so much and make sure to leave us a five-star review if you enjoy it If you don't enjoy it go to another podcast and leave them a bad review So let's go ahead and first thing we're gonna do is jump into the price here Let's see. Where's the main monitor? Here we go So right now the current price is at thirty thousand one hundred and thirty three dollars So you can see exactly what's been going on here This is currently the four-hour chart here and you can see that last week We had a huge run-up and then a big sell-off So we'll talk a little bit more about this what happened exactly what happened here last week We actually spoke about some of this in last week's episode if you tuned in So we'll go more into that today Let's take a look at the rest of the market and see what is going on Let me refresh it to make sure we have the latest prices here And as you can see over let's let's take a look at the last seven days And you can obviously see the biggest winner over the last week is XRP up 55% right it's at currently trading at 73 cents and believe it or not Last week it hit a high of it was above 90 cents So last week it was trading above 90 cents and it was up. I think 90% on the day Which was pretty crazy if you asked me But that's exactly what happened last week once the announcement came out with the rolling It's of course retraced a bit since then So that's something that we're gonna be monitoring here this week as well to see if anything else comes out this week There any more movements happen there if we continue to look through here We can see Salana up 27% over the last week and Remember Salana was one of the the projects that were Put in the SEC's lawsuit right that that was that they were calling a security I believe I don't know if it was in the lawsuit versus Binance or the one versus Coinbase But it is one of the coins That was in that lawsuit If we continue down Polygon Matic up 8% Let's see if that anything else that's really pops out stellar is up 28% If we continue going down, I don't see anything else that really pops out too much We have optimism there up 21% We could we could just pull up here the top gainers and losers from the top 100 market cap over the last seven days Of course, it's gonna show us XRP at the number one spot, but look at what's not number two one inch It's currently up 39.7 percent It just broke into the the top 100 it looks like it's at the 99 spot Then we have Caspa. That's the 71st spot up 34 percent In the last seven days compound up 32 percent and stellar up 28 percent if you look at the biggest losers In the last week Bitcoin Cash so Bitcoin Cash had it was kind of on a tear over the last few weeks It looks like it's currently You know retracing a bit here Then we have Bitcoin SV also down 11 percent. So the first two are Bitcoin Forks, that's interesting, right? Then we have e-cash Down 10 percent and Kava down 6.9 percent Like coin is also down 4 percent so Let's go ahead and now take a look at the economic calendar for the week see if there's anything going on and The main things that we're gonna see this week is going to be on the on Tuesday tomorrow U.S. Retail sells month over month I don't I don't think that's that's not gonna have much of an impact on the market Building permits not gonna have much of an impact on the market. So these two events. They're really not events for us Now the big event that will probably cease already having effects on the price of crypto this week is The event that we have coming up next week on the economic calendar Which is the Fed interest rate decision? That is going to be on the 26th of July next Wednesday at 2 p.m. Eastern Standard Time So that's definitely something to that we need to keep an eye on going forward because right now Basically, everyone thinks that they are going to do another interest rate hike So if they do another interest rate hike It will put basically the interest rates at 5.5 percent Currently, we're sitting at 5.25 percent if we take a look here. Let me refresh this We'll see the probability for a 25 basis point hike next week on Wednesday is sitting at 97.3 percent now what that tells us is that It's probably already priced in because it's basically 100 percent, right? Last month we saw something similar, but it was not at a pause. I think it was that we're sitting at like 95 percent area For a pause and we got a pause this month. We're sitting at 97 percent for a 25 basis point hike So we're probably gonna get a 25 basis points hike, right? So yeah, one thing to note is that this this usually is priced in beforehand like I told you guys market loves to kind of front-run The news announcements, right? So this happens with CPI it happens with With interest rate hikes Decisions and all that so that's currently what we're saying where so we've seen it get priced in a bit here now What we'll see on Wednesday once that report comes out Depending on what happens with the report if 25 basis points comes out I imagine at that point it's gonna be you know where we might move the price might go down a little bit It might go back up a little bit and it's but I don't think it's gonna be anything crazy If exactly what the market is expecting is what happens now where we would see Volatility is if the report comes is something that the market wasn't expecting So for example, if we get another pause on Wednesday Markets are gonna go ballistic to the upside, right? They're everything's gonna moon if we get a rate hike higher than 25 basis points Then a market once again is gonna go crazy, but to the downside everything is just gonna dump, right? So as long as we get what's expected then I don't think we see too much We might get some you know some volatility on the day of To the downside or to the upside when the report comes out But it's most of most of the volatility is probably gonna get retraced right away if any And what people will be watching for it and what might really affect the prices are is it the press conference? After the report comes out after the decision comes out, right? So the decision comes out at 2 o'clock Eastern Standard Time 2 p.m. And then 30 minutes later We have Jerome Powell the chair of the Of the Fed he's going to basically have a You know, he's gonna be speaking right and they're gonna he's gonna be talking about You know how why they did what they did and what their outlook is going forward So then that gives us a basically a glimpse an idea On on how they they're seeing it right now and how they might be moving forward in the future And as you guys know, they've been they they usually try to be very very hawkish kind of use a hawkish tone basically all the time Because they don't want to sound bullish and then every just give everyone an excuse to kind of shoot the market up, right? So I think that's why they probably do that So they're usually their tone is usually more to the hawkish side So that's something to keep in mind. So if we get the 25 bps plus a hawkish tone We might see downside Next week or at least during that time just depending, you know, what else might be also be going on in the market so The last thing going on here. Let me see The last thing going on on the economic calendar is we do have earnings. So earning season has started I think last week was actually the first week of earning season And usually in the beginning of the earnings season is like banks and stuff like that But this week we do have I know tesla is going to be reporting earnings And that's usually has a pretty big effect on the market overall Because they are in I believe they're on the on the nasdaq. I think Do you know tigger if tesla's on the nasdaq or uh s and p? I want to say nasdaq I want to say nasdaq. Um, which is a technology sector, right? It's on a nasdaq, right? Okay. So um, so that now when when earnings come out when earning season happens It sometimes could affect the overall market. So if earnings are are bad, you know, you'll see the market The overall markets start going down and uh, sometimes crypto likes to kind of follow traditional markets So, um, we could see downside or upside depending on how the overall earnings come out For everything because it because the earnings it kind of gives an idea of where the economy is overall, right? So, um Again something else to keep an eye on this week Um, all right. I think I've pretty much covered The the the main things I wanted to talk about here. Um, so next let's go ahead and jump into some news with btc Tigger our guest for today security now The one thing I kind of want to like caution everyone Is that there is the possibility of This going into retrial? um Now it is unlikely according to some lawyers that There will be You know a flip inverted However, it is something that is possible and I don't think they've Although xrp did win the verdict on whether or not it was security The verdict isn't in for the rest of the case. So like all the other stuff that was In litigation specifically with the founders and them enriching themselves and all that other stuff That's still on the table. Um, but it is news good news for the asset overall, which is cool But it's not a full win yet for the entire xrp team Because there are other things that they are facing However, a lot of exchanges have relisted xrp Such as point base and binance and kraken and a lot of other Individual exchanges because they did take this as a win and this looks very optimistic for a lot of crypto projects overall Which is really cool. Um, but again, this has to do with the initial sales of xrp So we actually still have to wait on the verdict for other things and hope that there is I guess no retrial. We don't want that, right? We do not want to try to retrial that so For now, we will celebrate this win Um, but please do remember that this is a partial victory Um as some some some news I guess outlets have have reported that it was a partial victory Others have uh, just taken it as a total win But um, we do still need to keep in mind that there is still stuff on the table But yes, um, it looks like there is a lot of buzz around xrp for that reason everything from us banks using xrp as a settlement system outside of swift to You know as jay said xrp going up 90 percent for a day So a lot of insane stuff happening right now You know in the end and in terms of like some of like the the banking stuff and like money transfers I think I think ripple got a lot of um, I guess notoriety in a sense Because a lot of the things they were saying where they had like partnerships with like mastercard and this person and that person And the company's coming out and saying well, that's not true um now because Of you know potentially this verdict that hopefully sticks Maybe it will help them get some of those um partnerships in place and like actually help you know These internal money transfers because that's what actually jp morgan chase does that with their Jp morgan coin. That's that's basically what they do they it gives them the ability of Doing wires within whatever network they created And training value internally at a low cost with low fees So that's basically what xrp is in a nutshell. It's it's something to replace the current Switch system and work in conjunction with banks So this is something that could be optimistic just based off the recent ruling Uh, but yeah, we'll see what else happens In the next upcoming weeks with the case Hopefully nothing crazy, but uh, yeah right now xrp is deemed not a security Now I did see that brine ads Lightning network is now live Uh yesterday or actually this morning by ants announced that it's lightning network Now allows people to withdraw bitcoin from its platform That is not including the us that's by nasa.com overseas only I believe us I think is paused for all withdrawals And outside of that, uh, we're just watching the coinbase case very closely There is it looks like the judge is ruling For the most part siding a little bit with coinbase being sympathetic towards their voicing The tone of the judge seems promising towards coinbase, which is actually pretty interesting There's also a word saying that the sec let coinbase know prior to them going public that they may have been violating securities law Which again why on earth are you giving a thumbs up to a company that's violating securities law so they can go public Just actual insanity So We'll see what happens with that. Um, but not too much New news coming out of the coinbase case as of yet And then last but not least that bitcoin etf we've been waiting for is now being Revisited by the sec currently this week Maybe by next week we will have a verdict if not this week. Um, but I think there is a very promising Chance that we will see The first bitcoin etf come out Hopefully before the end of this month. Uh, if not early next month But that is the majority of uh, what's going on in the markets Awesome, and and yeah, that that would be Pretty amazing if we if we get that spot bitcoin spot etf that also a catalyst that would definitely Uh, send, you know everything up. Um, I still feel I still feel like the xrp Thing is is probably bigger. Um, right now at least I don't I don't know I think for the overall industry as a whole because it's going to Kind of slow down the sec I think right That what? It's definitely set the bar right and it's gonna set up precedents, right and uh, and and slow the sec from Trying to aggressively attack crypto companies and Exchanges with no other, you know with with basically no clear guidelines. So, um Yeah, I'm very excited about that But I think the bitcoin etf the spot etf is also obviously gonna bring a lot of money into the market Um, which of course is you know with more liquidity coming into the market prices are gonna go up, right? um But yeah, so let's uh, uh, let's let's go ahead and and jump into the market analysis. Um Again, if you guys have any questions about anything that uh, that you want Answered here, make sure to drop it in the comments and then after the we do the market analysis here We're gonna go into the comment section and look for some answers To answer for you guys. So let's go ahead and jump right in here. Um, let me switch over there We go. All right. So, um, we're gonna look at a few things. Let's start as always I always like to do a top-down analysis, right? I think If there's any new Traders in here or any anybody looking to get into trading And they're looking to kind of figure out, you know, they want to know how to start I say the first thing that you probably want to do Is learn how to just kind of do a top-down analysis, right? Where you were you looking at the chart? You're looking at prices from a high time frame and then going down, right? So right now we're looking at a monthly chart and it's very clear, right? We can we can see exactly what's been happening this year. We can see in january. We had a huge move up February there wasn't really too much going on then in march We had in once again another big move up and then over the last In april and may, you know, we pretty much kind of stuck in a range and then Last month in june We hit once again had a move up and now we're once again, you know, just kind of ranging consolidating in for the moment, right? So the other thing you can see is we can see a clear trend. We can see a clear Change of trend, right? So that's that's another thing that you always want to want to know You can see the clear change in trend here and then the clear change in the trend now To the upside so you always want to be looking to to kind of trade within the trend itself It's going to make your life way way easier. So what we're looking at right now is that As far as you know on the monthly time frame It's something that worries me a little bit But we have to keep in mind that we're only halfway through the month right now So, um, let me actually go to I think here we go. So on the monthly time frame Right now as of this moment as as of this recording We have what's basically a bearish pin bar While at a resistance point, right? So right now resistance is sitting at $31,000, right? You can see if if we look at the last four months basically we first hit 31,000 back in april We got rejected then in may we basically, uh went down consolidated last month. We went back up retested 31,000 Um, kind of got rejected again This month so far we've broken. Uh, we broke, uh Above 31,000 almost reached 32 but then got rejected again, right? And now we're sitting here at $30,000 at once again now um So what what this leaves is this big wick to the upside with the body being on the downside of this candle and what that Uh is that pattern in there is that's that's called. Uh, well that what that candle is is a bearish pin is a bearish pin bar, right? That means that um, there weren't enough buyers up here So sellers took control the market pushed prices back down so now When you when you kind of put this with a resistance area A lot of times that could mean that we're that we might see some downside because that's basically what it's telling us If it were to close like this, right? And again, this candle isn't closed yet, but if it were to close like this, this is telling us That uh sellers are currently in control. There's more Supply than there's demand, right? And it could mean a retest and when I say that we can go lower I'm not talking about, you know, we're gonna drop way down here or anything like that What I'm talking about look at this trend line that that work that we've been following, right? Um, we couldn't we can we could potentially retest this trend line here and that currently sits probably around $27,000. So that's one thing that that we're Going to be keeping an eye on um For you know going forward here for the rest of this month now Let's drop down to the weekly uh time frame So now that we're at the weekly time frame, we can see things, you know change a little bit. You can see Uh a little bit more clearer on the day to day aspect And and once again on the weekly last week If we kind of look at this Last week, what do we have here? This is once again a bearish pin bar at resistance So that means that last week and this this candle is closed already. So last that means that last week, um We we have we we already closed that candle and that is Uh a reversal or top out signal now mean top out for the trend but just for the immediate Future, right? And that could signal some downside coming up and when and downside would mean like I like I just spoke about A move back down here to retest this trend sitting at around 27 000 dollars Now i'm not saying we're going to go all the way down to 27 000, but it is a potential That's where the trend line currently sits at now another thing is That we have some imbalances as well. So um if we look at the This right here. This is called f v g which is fair value gaps And basically what that points out is imbalances Meaning that there was a huge candle. You see this massive massive candle, right? um This when there's an impulse move like this a lot of the times what happens is that The price Retraces that move maybe not the complete move, but it retraces at least 50 percent of that move Because there are orders that never got filled because this move happens so fast. So there's a lot of buyers There's a lot of there's demand kind of sitting down here. There's liquidity down here So what a lot of times the market does is that it'll push back down to this area? Pick up those orders and then continue up. So that could be something that we see here and You know, we if we look at uh previously look at this move right here back in march when we had this candle 26 percent candle, right? um Look at what happened with the price it kind of topped out and look how it pushed it retraced for a bit and look at Look at where it retraced to this is about 50 percent of the candle, right? So um That could be something that we see here and if we look at 50 percent of this candle If we say that all right, we're gonna kind of range in this in this area here for the next couple weeks maybe um That kind of that that trend line at that point would be sitting around 28 thousand dollars So if we were to kind of do the same thing we did last time we had an impulse move um, that's kind of you know, that's some confidence there, right? We would be at the trend line here Which is also halfway through this um this fair value gap Which is uh, uh a trade that a lot of traders do right? So there's a lot of orders down here So and again if you if you look if we look at this one look at this big massive candle here Uh moved up and then what happened it eventually retraced now This one didn't go back the half to halfway the candle, but it did get pretty close You can see this this would have been around halfway through the candle Um, and it came in about a quarter of the way, right? And again at the trend line it bounced right back up continued uh on and you know So forth, right? So that's something that we're watching here. We have to keep an eye on it We have to see what happens this week if we do not break above this resistance line That could be something that we see in the next week or two a retest of this uh trend line and a and you know, we we see the prices kind of fill This uh f v g area The imbalances in that area So um, that's something that that we're watching there on the weekly if let's now change to the daily time frame And i'ma change my chart here. So on the daily time frame We can see pretty much, uh, what we've been experiencing Since with this the the big move up last month, right? We've been ranging in this in this, uh Area between 30 000 to 31 000 dollars We've had some deviations to the upside and then a big retracement down now If you remember in the episode, um last week we we spoke about this, right?  We saw that Here and guess what guess what last week we just saw that again and look at this look at this candle, right? Look, this is the previous high broke above those highs Faked out and look at this very next candle We had a massive dump to the to the downside right after breaking those highs So what was it that we that we that we mentioned last week? Um, the idea was That they want to stop everybody out, right? That's what market market makers want to do is grab as much liquidity as possible To fill their positions whether it be short positions or long positions and the way that they do a lot of that Is by liquidating retail investors So um and stopping out retail investors. So how is it that they're getting liquidity by doing this? Well a lot of traders what they do Very simple strategy is they set by orders above Previous highs, right? So above previous yearly high above a recent high. They set long orders, right? Now what what about traders that are shorting because that that would only cover that would only trigger long orders And breakout traders while people that are shorting a lot of them what they do once they get to this resistance area, right? They're going to place their stop losses Guess where above previous highs above recent highs above yearly highs So what happens is? A bunch of people have orders placed right here, right? We have a not only breakout traders placing orders there We have short traders placing stop loss orders there. So there's a lot of liquidity in that area So what market makers do? What do they do? Like they know this right these They know that you guys are setting your stops there.   They take all that liquidity And then boom a massive candle to the opposite side So they just took all that liquidity. They took a bunch of money Away from retail investors and they flushed the price to the opposite side Now Now they're just gonna kind of do the same thing to the downside, right? They're gonna they're gonna look They're gonna say, okay, how much where where's the area that we can take the most amount of Money the most amount of liquidity where we can fail our positions fail our huge orders And they're gonna be playing it the same exact way and this happens over and over again So um, so that's something that that you need to be kind of aware of When placing orders in either direction whether you're with the trend or against it Whether you're going long or short doesn't matter Market makers are looking to stop you out.  If you did it again over here They just stopped you out right there, right? They're going to know that you're That you're doing that right if you placed your stop loss below this candle Guess what today? They just stopped you out. So they're they're gonna keep doing that They love to do that. It's something that that you're gonna see over and over and over again in the market Until one of these levels gets broken And you know, it how do you know when the level gets broken? Well, you're gonna have to wait for a candle close, right? Either above or below that level So we did get a candle close here that was bullish But the very next candle dumped the entire move and this is a bearish engulfing So, um, this is a huge engulfing candle there Which could mean a again a move to the downside, right? We can we can see we could potentially see further downside So, um, if if you don't want to get caught trying to take a breakout trade Usually the way that you play it is you wait for for That to be confirmed the move to be confirmed Let's say to the downside if you're trying to short Below the resistance, you're gonna let you're gonna have to let the price go down Let it come back and return and when it tests, that's when you would open your order there Now you are gonna miss A lot of moves to the downside because sometimes they happen just like this right where they they don't return They just dump really really fast So, I mean, that's part of the game though You you just kind of have to you know, know that that's gonna happen and be okay with it So again, that's something that that we're watching there. Um This is still a huge support area as long as price continues to stay above this $30,000 area It's still a big area of support there. So Last week we spoke about when I was telling you guys, you know, where what trades I was looking for Where I was looking for trades. Remember, we spoke about this last week on Monday I said that I'm looking to to take a longs at this support So I'm still doing that same thing until proven otherwise. I'm going to be looking to long the support Now you have to be careful with the longs because remember the market's looking to to shake you out So if I get shaken out and I see price Returns back above what I'm doing is once again opening a long At $30,000 Another thing you can do you can also like kind of ladder your position. So if you're going long at 30 And the market drops lower then you can, you know, maybe add on to your position here and so forth But that's a little bit more dangerous because you don't know how low it's gonna go So, um, you know, you might think okay at 29,500, you know, I'll add on to my position there But then price could drop down to 29 and then at 29 you'll be like, all right There's a support here. I'll add on to my position there We might retest this trend line down here at 27 28 thousand dollars. So you have to be careful You have to make sure that if you're doing that, you know what you're doing So I only I only recommend you to do something like that if either one you're very experienced with trading like this Um, and you know how to handle your liquidation level So you don't get your position liquidated or two if you're not trading with leverage. So, um Other than that probably I would say don't try to take those trades because they're just very very dangerous And you can get stuck bad bag holding and potentially get liquidated if prices go a lot lower than than what you initially thought, right? So, um, yeah, so what I'm doing what I'm looking for this week. I'm looking for bounces here I'm looking for the price to bounce here. Um, I again want to ride it to that top, right? I want to I want to ride these levels to the top Um, I'm looking to to take profits probably around 30 800, which is this level right here It's been a big resistance here as you guys can see and I'm actually going to the four hour chart here Um, you can see that that 30 800 level has been huge, right? Um, and then then that next area is probably going to be that 31 000. Um and and above, right? So if if we pull up, um, let's take a look at our liquidity here liquidity levels to see if You know, what what is going on in that aspect? You can see that we have Some liquidity here to the upside all the way up to about 30 400 right now Um, and we have liquidity to the downside. These liquidity levels are sitting here at 29 700 And 29 400 so that was actually the year the low of the previous low Here this on this candle here. So, um And remember last week we had a bunch of levels to this upside and we spoke about 30 700 31 700 remember I said that we'll probably retest 31 700 which was above this level because there was a lot of liquidity there and look what happened Look at this. That's the exact level. We tested 30. We went up as high as 31 869 so we deviated a little bit above it and then they crashed the entire thing down So now to the upside here. We have you will see that the biggest level right now is 31 963 so pretty close to 32 000. So if it gets here, it's most likely going to hit 32 000 above 32 000 We have liquidity levels at 32 400 and 32 600, right? Now I want to pull up here The this heat map right here. So this here is a heat map of The liquidation levels. So this is basically People that are trading with leverage where the liquidation levels are And this shows us this is on the monthly time frame that The majority of liquidations right now are to the downside, okay? So if we look up like we yeah, we see the end and to explain this a little bit more the more the brighter The brighter yellow that this heat map is The more orders that there are in that in that area the more liquidity that there is liquidations, right? So you can see look at uh, look at last, um Last week remember we spoke about that 31 700 that was this level right here and look where price went It went it triggered that all those liquidations and boom shot the price back down Now we have um some liquidation levels down here. This is at that 29 000 area This is really not a lot. You can see it's really not that bright But as we get closer to that 28 to 27 000 area We see it gets a little bit brighter And then right now the brightest one which is where the majority of liquidation orders are is Around 25 to 24 thousand dollars So I i'm not thinking that we see a move down to 24 25 But it is it isn't out of the realm of possibilities But I I do think maybe I'll move down into this liquidity level which is around 29 000 And if it were to push lower than 28 to 27 would be the next big level of liquidity So um now to the upside is up here, right? It's above at this point We've taken out all the liquidation levels between 30 to 32 000 dollars The next Liquidation levels are sitting between 33 to 34 000 dollars and after that it's at 36 000 dollars. So If we're moving if we're looking for liquidation levels to the upside It'll probably be up here But what i'm thinking right now is price might at least aim for the these Liquidation levels right here, which is in that 29 000 dollar range. So that's something to to watch out for here In this coming week, and this is on the seven day timeframes for liquidations uh, we kind of we're basically zooming in a bit here to um The more immediate future and we can see there's a lot of liquidations here on in the 29 000 dollar area So because of that, I think there is a possibility there is a potential that we might See some deviations to the downside uh this week um and leading up to next week when the Fed interest rate decision comes out to basically take these uh trigger these liquidations, right? They're gonna trigger this all these liquidations and then you know start moving the price back in the opposite direction probably um after that so Those are the things to keep in mind If we do see that move to the downside um The main thing that i'm i'm going to be looking for is potentially a long Here you can see that this is a a Fibonacci level right here. That's around 29 000 dollars If that doesn't hold then my next support that i'm looking at is this trend line Which again is currently around 27 000 dollars and if we think if we look back at those liquidation levels that we just spoke about um, there's a lot of liquidations below 28 000 at that 27 000 dollar area, right? So um that gives us some confluence with this being a level that the market may trigger Um for if we were to break to the downside of this range Now if we're breaking to the upside, you know, we just we just showed you guys um those other levels, which is basically between 32 to 34 000 dollars I think is uh where price could go my overall target to the upside if we were to continue up is of course up here Which is between 35 to 38 000 dollars and um if we you know when looking at this The liquidation level heat map you can see there's a lot of liquidation levels up there as well So it would make sense for prices to to reach these levels as well and on a move to the upside so, um, that that would be what i'm targeting But right now this week and of course every day we have to reassess reevaluate what's going on in the market But i'm looking to take alongs still here at 30 000 dollars um And if when we when we get up here to the top side, I might be looking if I see rejections like this Then i'm looking for uh to potentially short in this range So last week we spoke about shorting uh up in that range. Um, I think I mentioned it in my discord at 30 31 700 dollars um, I said that uh, I would probably take a short there And you can see that exactly what happened here. We had this massive candle to the downside. So um Pretty much how i'm playing it this week, you know You know, if you guys have any questions about anything that I just went over I know I I kind of went over a lot of different scenarios and a lot of different things Um, I kind of gave you guys a bearish and a bullish outlook Um, so but you have to always kind of be open to both scenarios You know, uh, you don't want to have a bias to the upside or downside because that's going to affect your ability to to be basically be able to trade The right way you want you want to try to make money regardless of which way the market's going so um If you're experienced trader you can trade it both ways if you're less experienced Then I would say just stick to the to the side with the trend Um always try to trade within the trend if you even if you think price is going to go down at resistance That just means uh, you should be taking profits at resistance and waiting for a read a long re-entry at the next support So that as a beginner that's what I would recommend you want to trade it like that You don't want to trade against the overall trend. So, um Yeah, that's that's pretty much what I got to say there. Uh, what do you think tigger? Do you see an upcoming bounce? I can't hear you Just kidding. I mean myself while you're talking So I think eventually I think with the overall news that we've been seeing in the market Especially with most things being positive for the most part. We're definitely going to see a um There's going to be retraced because we we don't we went up way too fast kind of like how you said before Um, but we're going to ultimately bounce up like we are ultimately the trend is bullish We're on a bullish trend. Um upward. This is just historically how it's built in And then, you know, just common events. This is this is what's going to happen, right? There will be fluctuations throughout these periods of times just because uh, things are moving faster Then, um, you know, the market can pretty much like fill orders, which Has a lot to do with um, the price being retraced And then kind of like what jay said with all the market makers, um, all that stuff makes sense Their liquidity is their main goal and their main purpose and if they can see, you know Things like the heat map and have access to these tools just like, you know, all the traders do They will use this to their advantage. Um, so yes, be careful with a potential retrace You know for us to go under 25, I think that's probably like The lowest will probably will probably go. Um, just based off The growth amount that we will be facing Um, but yeah, I think I think overall if you are trading to definitely play it safe Don't get bold People get bold around these times. Um, I think the only appropriate time to get bold is is if we're like For real and like an upward trend like gaining Up like, you know price up a thousand dollars every day, you know day after day That's that's really the only time I'd get bold other than that, you know, be safe guys Right safely. Yeah 100% So now we're going to move on to the q&a portion of the stream. So if you guys have any questions Drop it in the comments, um, and we'll answer those for you. I did ask on uh, instagram Yesterday for some questions So i'm going to be pulling them up here right now, uh, and we'll answer a few Let me see. Um, and if we get any in the chat, then we'll answer those as well So, uh, let me go ahead and pull them up here. Give me a second And I answered some of these already on instagram. Um, so if you want to take a look at those, you can as well But uh, let's let's go here. Let me see which is a good one So somebody asked where in the world are you just wondering what the time difference is So we're both located in miami, florida Um, which is eastern standard time Miami. Yep Um, the next one is do you think bitcoin can hit six figures in 2024 2025? What do you think tigger? Six figures 2024 2025 what is 2023? Yep basically Yeah, I will obviously yes, um big Most certainly hit six figures like that's that's not an it the question of if but when right between 2024 2025 absolutely 100% yeah, I I I agree with that as well. Um, let me see Uh How long have you been knowledgeable about crypto? So basically when when did you get into crypto? I I got in in 2016 2017 yeah, it's been a couple years now guys Yeah, so so I actually tried to get into crypto earlier on probably around 2013 14 um But I couldn't buy a van kept rejected. Yeah, I couldn't I couldn't I couldn't buy I got frustrated and I was like I I just I just didn't buy so Yeah, I you know, it sucks. I I wish I would have I would have gotten earlier But hey, it is what it is. I did end up still getting in at a pretty decent price I just the only regret I have is not buying more, right? I think that's the the regret everyone has And I think I think in the next, you know, six seven eight years We're gonna look back to this time and we're gonna be like damn it. Why didn't I buy more?      So be humble um and do what you can do it out of a timely manner because You know in the world's going to continue, right? Yeah, so just just a word of advice. Yep. I agree um, when will crypto start to go parabolic? again, probably Like mid next year, I'd say yeah, I think I think um After the halving is definitely when I think like things will really kick off um Right now Slowly until the end of the year like maybe we'll end up this year with like 50 at 50k, right? We're gonna slowly creep up to like previous highs, right? So like 50 60k and then once we start like Nearing the happen and getting past the halving. That's like when things will start to like jumble But in the past it's been a year after the halving Last last run not not so much because covid and like that was a very unique situation um this year Yeah, this year this year might be might be different, you know, um, I I would expect um I would expect things to get hot going into Um the middle of going into next summer. Let's say I would expect things to get hot. Yeah. Um, yeah I I think you know right now we're basically it's the moves are more based off uh catalyst, um, you know news events What the macro economy what's going on in the world with inflation reports, you know, the interest rate decisions That's what's kind of been moving uh prices this year Um, I think once we we move kind of past this and start going into next year and the halving coming up and all that Then, you know, um, that's when we might really start to see some some big moves and things like that Um, but remember when there's a big move up there's also a big move down So you got to be prepared for all those scenarios Um, let's see. We got three minutes left Uh, let's see any other questions here that uh that we should Uh talk about Um share some of your mistakes learning experiences Uh end up from the previous bull markets, uh, specifically 2017 and 2021 Do you have any? Um Make sure you don't ride the coaster back down. We're on a roller coaster guys. Okay, but think about it this way Corner roller coaster. We're on the way up, right?  Um, I was lucky enough to not write it back down and I purchased House which has increased in value. So I Uh did very well with my gains and I you know, put it into another appreciating asset, right?  Where are we going from here? Do you feel like you've made sufficient gains? You know get out right if you see that the market is down 10 000 dollars from where it was the previous day get out um those are things that you need to keep in mind because Yeah, there there is no again Bulls eat bears eat pigs get slaughtered do not pig out on gains Yeah, never do that. Um, that's probably rule number one Yeah, rule number two Um, I didn't know I didn't know you had another rule my bad my bad Number two Put in the into the market whatever you can Um, don't sit around thinking. Oh, I need to get like, you know, 500 dollars a thousand dollars at least to get it No, no, no if you got dollars a week That is enough Whatever you have left over right whatever savings you think you have put it in the market Right, like if you're not if you're not saving up to like go on vacation Or like, you know do something specific and you just got money laying around your bank account put it in the market. Um Personally, I keep very very very very very very minimal amounts of cash on me at all times Um, like if somebody robs me and like tries to take on my account like maybe they'll get like 500 dollars out of me like max Like otherwise my bank account would go to fish it. I just I just don't do it. Um, all my savings are in Um assets or crypto or something. I I do not keep cash handy.  Just just take your savings and put it there. Um, because I mean That's probably like the biggest mistake I made Coming into the industry was not taking whatever arbitrary little bit amount of money I had and putting it into this Um, rather than, you know, doing nothing at all like like do something but don't do nothing at all That's that's probably the second like word of advice I have. Um That's about it Yeah, I I definitely agree and uh, what I would say is uh, the first one is dca, right? So when when your dollar costs at the same way that we recommend dollar cost averaging When during the bottom during while prices are down while while it's a bear market, whatever the case I recommend the same thing when things go up this now now instead of dollar cost averaging in You dollar cost average out So it's the same play the same thing all you're doing is just in the opposite direction Once all the prices start going up once you're in profits, right and I actually uh did a thread yesterday On threads. I didn't do a thread. I I I basically did a post I guess on threads and it said, um Usually need three market cycles to make it the first cycle You're probably going to be down bad a lot of people the first cycle that they join in they buy they buy the top, right? Uh, of course, there's people that that get in earlier and even though even like for example for myself The first cycle for me, even though I got in early at a good price. I didn't sell at the top So what happened I was kind of I was in profit But I wasn't in the same profit that I was at the top So I was at that point I was like I can't sell right now You know because I knew what the value could be so at that I just kept accumulating after that first cycle The second cycle is where you really really begin to understand and learn Um, you know, you're still making mistakes, but you know during the second cycle I was able to actually take profits. I was able to actually, you know have money Uh that I was able to pull out and basically use for for other things, right? Um, like btc tigger said she used her crypto to buy a house like that's crazy, right? Um, and I think that's what happens in in the second cycle type of aspect You start really learning how you can really maximize your profits and maximize the peak of that bull run, right? And then the third cycle is to implement everything that you've learned the previous two cycles And I think that the third cycle is where you really can just like you the first to the first cycle You made all the mistakes the second cycle you improved some of those those mistakes But you still probably learned a few things the third cycles where you just kind of put it all together and become a multi millionaire billionaire crypto holder, so I think we're gonna end it with that one But uh, but yeah, that's that's what I think um You know out there guys first of all hold on. This is actually the most important thing that everyone needs to know If you are new to this industry Do not Do not do not do not buy Random metaverse coins, okay?  Don't do it.   I lost it.  Okay Do not do that. Okay stick to bitcoin If you're bold go to ethereum Maybe even cardano, but do not just go Buying random things that some person recommended because somebody else told them blah blah blah Okay, like that is the biggest thing every time I run into someone who is Just mildly knowledgeable about crypto and they complain that they're down in the hole and what's going on and is it dead It's always the same thing.  I've never heard of And now they're upset. Okay, just buy bitcoin You can buy ethereum. Just just buy the things that are actually vetted for And you'll be fine That's it. I'm off my soapbox We're gonna end it on that note. Thank you guys to everyone who tuned in live Thank you guys if you're listening on the podcast. I appreciate all of you. Uh, we are live every single monday At 1 p.m. Eastern standard time. Usually sometimes we have to push it back to 1 32 o'clock But it's fine.  Um, I appreciate everyone everybody that tuned in Again, we do this every single monday. Let's talk crypto Episode 21 already. So we will see you guys on the next one. As always guys Peace and love and be safe


So, you can see where this is good news because as you give your mind over to miracles, things just work out. Not based on your past learning, as Jerry was saying, and the prayer to open up, but based on trust and this divinity inside you that's guiding the way. And that's the fun part of it. Things just work out. You just feel so good for no earthly reason. You can't even come up with a good reason to feel this good.  And then you notice in your mind's not content. It's always, you know, the old Peggy Lee song, you know, you're always looking out to see what's the next thing, what's the next project, what's the next conquest, what's the next achievement, you know, the ego's loves when the mind keeps searching and not finding. And the ego's in there saying, you've had it, you're just not very good at this. But the beautiful thing is you can learn vicariously from those that, you know, you don't have to go through the school of hard knocks in the physical realm. You can, I was talking about Marilyn Monroe the other night, you know, fame, sex appeal, money, you know, status at the President of the United States lusting after her. And all these things of the world would go, ooh, and yet, you know, very depressed and very suicidal. It's like, that's just a good extreme example about how when you follow the ego's fool's goal, bigger, better, faster, more, keep up the Joneses and then get as much as you can and grab for all you can and go for the gusto, you go down those roads and then they're empty roads.  And it's nice that we've had a lot of symbols that seemingly in history that we've been able to see that they really got what the ego said in planning. I mean, they, you know, Marilyn Monroe was married to Joe DiMaggio and Arthur Miller.  So that was, that helped me in my journey. I was glad to read books and look at, watch movies and meet people and really talk to them. Are you happy? Are you really happy? And a lot of them had seemed to attain things and really had done very well according to the world for the ego's plan and they weren't happy. And I thought, well, this is for me. This is a good, a good lesson for me. I'm not, instead of trying to put all my energy into trying to achieve and accumulate and build all these things, I'm going in the other direction.  And initially, those were some of the reflections I got. As I'm praying and meditating and doing all this inner work, you know, I'm calling forthwitnesses, even initially my parents, biological father, no good, lazy, dirty, rotten bum, get a job. Meditation doesn't really show up very well on your resume. Like, hey, I've been meditating for eight hours. No good, lazy, dirty, dirty. It's not showing up in the debit credit column here. So it takes a lot of faith, you know, to keep up with your inner lessons and your prayers and your meditations because initially, it's not really the people. It's like they're just reflecting your own doubt thoughts about, am I doing the right thing or am I wasting my life and am I going to end up in a gutter somewhere because I didn't put enough prudent care into these things, you know. So what I started to do was I started to have miracles and I started to show me that my inner quest was very worth it. And I was in college for 10 years and I spent, I mean, I got good grades and did all the projects and got the degrees. But I actually spent more time in the philosophy, psychology, religion section of the library asking some deeper questions like what's the point of all this in the first place and tracing it in, like why am I doing all these projects and all these committees and grades and everything like this. It came down to I thought, well, I want love. And I said, okay, I want love and so, so I want a relationship. Okay, so I went to love, I want a relationship and I thought if I date women and they say, you know, what have you got to offer?  I have nothing. I said, it's not gonna be very good. In fact, I was recently joking about it. I was doing a little skit with David goes on the dating game. I was like, bachelor number three. Bachelor number three, what do you find attractive in a woman? Nothing? Okay, bachelor number two. Bachelor number three, what skills and worldly skills and abilities do you have to offer? Nothing. Bachelor number two, funny, bachelor number three, just get off the stage. You can get away from that. I have two more questions on here. What happens is you get into this divinity and you become intoxicated with the miracle and you just want to let it pour through you. But the need to create, to get things, to accumulate things, to build and say, this is me, to carve out a niche in the world and say, this is my image and it's a good image. And I'm gonna polish it like a diamond and everything, very important stuff if you're on a date. How do you make a good person pressure you to take a look at this stuff? So I had to really go into this and start to say, I guess what I really want was, I want love and peace and freedom and happiness, but I've been looking for love in all the wrong places. I've been looking for freedom in all the wrong places and peace, some of us think we just lived in a particular place in the woods or we sailed the ocean blue that we'd have peace. But the ego is still down there until you get rid of or expose and expel the ego from your mind, then you're still not gonna find it in form. So that's what I did is it just, it helped me go inward and start to say that God was offering me that happiness and peace and love and intimacy. But my definitions of those things had to be questioned and let go. And that's what the Course does. I mean, that's what I had to do about sickness and health. I mean, I, in 10 years of college, you learn a lot of stuff about health, what to eat, what not to eat, you know, all about the body and exercise and cardiovascular fitness. I went through stages of vegetarianism and on and on and on. And then you get to this Course and the same thing that Jesus said in the Bible 2,000 years ago.  It's what proceeds forth from the heart. And I thought, my gosh, that's what this Course is about. It's like from the Beatitudes. Blessed are the pure heart, but they shall see God.  It's not about changing behaviors. It's not about morality. It's not about ethics. Those are systems of behavior. And the Course just says, what you do comes from what you think. And the only thing that you really can change is your mind. You know, you can change the way that you think and your behavior will flow automatically. You'll smile more frequently. You'll seem like you're joyful and happy wherever you go. You know, it will be a consistent state of this happiness. So that's what I mean by getting into the subtleties and like the question about sickness. You do start to realize that when you try to hold idols, that's what's being sick, that's sickness. When you try to judge, when you try to have preferences, when you try to control that sickness. And that sickness really, really isn't about the body. The body is just like a reflection of your state of mind. And so what medical, the medical model focuses on is on the body and it's like symptom management or trying to bring about the healing through drugs or through surgery or manipulating the body. Even alternative methods that seem to work with energy and chakras and so forth is still as long as you're working with the body as a cause, you're missing the point that the mind is causative and that there is no sickness in the body. So that's really what we do and it's wonderful the more you go deeper into it because you start to realize that just like Jerry was saying everything that you thought about this world and I mean everything was a mistake. And it is humbling but it is glorious when you drift into this state of humbleness and realize that you are clueless about nutrition. You are clueless about exercise. You are clueless about diets and clueless about medicine and clueless about fitness and all these different things. Your mind sinks into a state of trust and joy. And that is your health, that is your health. That's state of joy, that's state of love and glory. You might say blessed by the pure and heart, period. You can say that right there because you can put the period right there. You don't need to look for a reward. That's it. Little children are rewarded for being sick. We'll figure that out real quickly. And if I have a tummy ache, my mom is gonna just tug, came up and began. So right away we're taught that pain is a good thing. Sickness is a hope. I'm gonna get a reward from my mom. I remember my mom really tugging me a lot when I was home from school section. And I think that reinforces something that's later on in life.  So as you were saying it, I'm thinking, yeah, well, we were taught that. I know, I was listening, I agree definitely, and I understand what you're saying. I was just wondering, what would you, you know, what I notice is that people, some people who are searching and say someone who wants to meditate and pray and who's suffering, who's sick, who's sick in the body and wanna find the answer, you know, wanna, through meditation, or stern, of course, or whatever, Pat, there on, where they're in a situation where the body is interfering with their prayer because it's hard to pray, it's hard to sit and meditate. It's when your body is in pain or is ill, is sickness, and because it distracts you from what you wanna do. What would you suggest in that type of situation? Yeah, that's what's helpful about the course, is that it says, there's a point where Jesus says, sometimes a mixture of magic and miracle is necessary when the mind is too fearful, and that's what he's saying, is he's saying that, whatever, and magic is a broad term. We're not just talking about take the medicine or go through the physical therapy or move your posture, your position around if you feel discomfort or if you're trying to meditate and you're so cold, it's okay to go through, put a blanket around yourself. Magic is a broad word for the belief that you can change something in form to bring about a sense of minimizing or lessening the discomfort. And so what the course is saying is, magic isn't evil. And in fact, when your mind is too afraid of the miracle and too afraid of that spiritual healing, then be gentle with yourself and do whatever feels helpful and comfortable. It's not trying to draw a line and saying, oh, that's a sin, that's evil if you take that S-burn or you go to that doctor. Basically, everything that you perceive is bringing witness to your mind. So even let's say if you go to a medical doctor, that medical doctor to the Holy Spirit is just another agent or another angel that's being sent to help you, not an evil one that believes in all the stranger stuff, but actually this is just an agent. So I've had a lot of people that have come to me that are in that place where they'll say, can you give me some practical things that I could do or help them get in touch with some practical things that are intermediate steps that they feel comfortable doing? And the more that you practice them, once you get more into a comfortable state and there's not so much of a distraction, then you can get back into your workbook lessons. You feel much more inclined to attempt to meditate and to pray and everything. And you work, you do that inner work. And the more you get deeper into that inner work, then the need for magic slowly fades and falls away. So that's the way it works. Thought that's coming up is Christian Science and Mary Baker and what about her? Supposedly when I've heard Jesus also had a hand right in that, did you hear that or my? Yeah. Okay, so that would seem like I guess some people need that. That's the only thing I can think that they have. And instead of taking the magic that can temporarily just heal them, with them it's black or white, either total faith or you're dead, I guess. Maybe you can explain that, how we can piece that together. Yeah, there's been a lot of stereotypes about Christian scientists and children dying without medication and so on and so forth. I think the best thing to say about Christian Science if you really follow it in teaching is basically, pray first, put God first is the whole teaching of it. And that's really what the Course Miracles is saying as well. It's just that in the Course Jesus is clearly saying that if you're too fearful, just like this gentleman's question, he would say you want to reduce the fear. You don't want to increase the fear. And if you get to a point where you've got something in your mind where you're going, I should be able to dispel this with the power of God and it doesn't seem to be working and you start beating yourself up about it and then you start saying I am a miserable sinner because or I can't do this and on and on and on and the pain gets worse. That's not the direction you want to move. You do want to reduce the fear. And actually you could say that the same about miracles. Miracles should never be performed in the presence of fear. That Jesus is saying in order to be a miracle worker, even temporarily you need to line your mind with mine and he says let me do it through you. And miracles should be involuntary. Involuntary they shouldn't be consciously controlled that if you start going around and trying to decide where you're going to bestow the miracles but that's not how it works either. You have to let the Holy Spirit direct and in many cases smiling and not saying a word to somebody or a pat on the back or a hug is the most, the absolute most can be offered at a given point. Any words that would be offered would just be increasing the fear level. And that's why as we all take on these professions of miracle workers, we're really getting into the subtleties of that workbook lesson. I will step back and let him leave the way. It takes a lot of subtle practice at this to really stay a constant state of joy because the deeper you get into it, you get into this state of mind where you realize that it was all for you. And if you don't have to fix anybody, you don't have to change anybody. Of course he even says seek not to change the world. Seek better to change your mind about the world. How glorious! People could be saying and doing whatever and you're just sitting there beaming like, oh my God, you get into such grace, you get into that state of grace and it's so wonderful to not have to change somebody, to not have to convince somebody of something, to not have to even offer a belief system, but to just simply sit there in quiet certainty and feel all that love in your heart and it radiates out to the whole universe. So that's what I found that the subtleties are very, very important. And even with people that I work with, I've recently been doing some gathers with some friends and we had this joyful gathering and I'd get up to go in the restroom or do something and come out and there'd be this argument going on or this big debate and then somebody was really getting upset and everything and after they'd leave, I'd talk to them and I'd say, well, this is good practice. If you find your brother getting furious and you find, they were saying, no, but I am not a body, you know, and you start, you start to get into them and then somebody raging and everything, I said, well, you better turn it over to the Holy Spirit because for example, in that case, after the gentleman had left, I said, now, I said, the Course says that to deny the body is the inappropriate use of denial. In other words, if you are trying to deny something that is so deeply buried in belief and you're just on the surface trying to say, you know, I'm not a body, and it's like two course of miracles students getting into a raging fight and debate and finding one of them saying, I'm not here and you're not here and we're not having this conversation, that's going on. That's a good example of attempting to deny the body, obviously there's some anger going on there and that's not the appropriate use of denial. But what Jesus does say is, deny the beliefs that error can hurt you. Remember the power of your interpretation. You have a mind and your mind is always interpreting and you don't have to interpret ever that you are under attack. You don't have to ever interpret that anyone is under attack. In fact, that's a very little logical thing that's in the workbook. I am not a body and my mind cannot attack so I cannot be sick. And what he's saying there is, if you start to really look at it and you get deep enough into this, you will see the impossibility of attack. And that's where your invulnerability comes in. If you're still preceding attack, which just means you're holding on to attack box and proceeding through the ego's lens, it won't matter how strong you hold that smile on your face. It doesn't matter how you try to hold that body so it's not trembling and shaking. It doesn't matter how you try to keep from turning red. It doesn't matter how big of a front you seem to put on and try to control the body. If you're preceding attack, it's not going to feel good. You're going to have some churning going on inside some discomfort. And so this is, of course, in literally wiping away the belief in attack. And I would say that's what salvation or enlightenment is, is you come to this state of mind and you see that it is, attack is absolutely impossible. That you give up the dualism of attacker and taki. I mean, to have attack, you've got to have two. You've got to have an attacker and taki, a victimizer, a doer and one who's done you. You've got to have that split in the world before you can even perceive an attack. And what the Course does is it says, keep coming inside here. You're going to see that the only attack that there really is is the belief that you can separate from God. And it's such a horrifying idea that this entire cosmos was made up to project that idea out and splitter it into tiny little scenarios over a millennium to diffuse it, to try to make it not be such a horrifying thing. And that diffusing is not working. You find out more and more. You've still got the rage. The Bible said, forget 70 times seven. The Course is saying, if you could forgive one person, if you could receive salvation from a table, Jesus says, if you could withdraw all of your ideas, all of your past learning from a table, you could receive salvation or enlightenment from just a table. That would mean you'd have to forget what about length and width and height, about texture and about color, about size, about shape. You see, there's a lot there with that table. You really are honest. And you look at that table, you start to see, I think I know something about that table. And then Jesus comes along and says, don't tell the table what it is.  Let that table be just a symbol that the Holy Spirit uses.  You can never be destroyed because God created you. That's what a table has to tell you. That's quite a tale. It's a beautiful reminder that that table will tell you if you can remove all the judgments from the table. Just reading all the judgments, that's easy. That's it. It is. It's actually easier not to judge than it is to judge. Made it hard by Jesus. It's actually easier to be enlightened than it is to defend against the devil. I had a friend one time who was down in Tennessee with me and she was like going into this time of silence or whatever. And she said, David, I don't know. I know you're going to stock up with food and everything. I'm going to go into my mind and face the seagull. But she said, I've read a lot of spiritual books and I read about the saints and the mystics and John the Cross and Darth Nidus and everything. And she said, I don't know if I can do this. I mean, there's been a lot of people that came before me that tried to go for enlightenment or salvation and they seem to get her old back from the cave or something.  It's a piece of cake. I mean, and that's the attitude you've got to go at this. When you're doing those workbook lessons, not that you're going to do the lessons for 20 years, you know, to go at it every lesson, expecting to wake up.  Okay, always scared. I don't care what number this is. This will do just fine today, whatever it is. 20, 240, 360, doesn't matter. You know, that's the way I went to do the workbook lessons. You know, I expected to wake up every time. And almost like a child has that kind of glee and wonder, you know, where they don't, they aren't thinking how long have I got to do this and how am I going to have time to do this and all this and that. That's the ego getting in. Do you have a question, Jerry? Is there a comment? Yeah.


Thank you all for coming. This is measuring your Elixir application. My name is Hennan Hanali. But people call me Mew House. Probably much easier for you guys to pronounce than Hennan. So I'm a senior software engineer at Sherpa. I work full time with Elixir and Clojure Script. I've been doing that for about a year now. And I'm going to talk to you guys about measuring stuff. And before that, I worked with those hell of different languages. I spent a very long time in Ruby and C-Sharp world. So I surfed a lot on very different ecosystems. And this company I work on is called Sherpa. We're a Brazilian startup. I'm from Brazil if you haven't guessed from my accent already. We're a Brazilian startup that tries to do something like Xenophyts, namely, and those other HR platform startups are trying to do here in the US. Here's our home page. We have a home page now. We're very good friends with the guys at Botiform Attack. And when he heard that Elixir have hit 1.0, we decided, well, it looks like if it comes from them, it's going to be good stuff. So we're going to start our company using this brand new, exciting language. We've been doing that for more than a year now. We'd be very happy with the experience. And I'm going to talk to you guys about the experience we had in building the system and how we started measuring stuff in it and the things we discovered along the way. So first of all, why should I care about what Muhouse is trying to say here? Why should I care about metrics? I try to convince you guys about why this is important. And try to give a logic line here. So first of all, we write code. And we do so because it generates business value. Some of us do it because it's fun. I certainly know guys that do this only because it's fun. But most of us that need to pay the bills, we do this because it generates business value. But this business value is generated only when our code runs and not when it's written. If you only had written code sitting somewhere in the corner, it's not generating business value. If we want to, in order to generate this business value, we need to make good decisions about things. And in order to make good decisions about something at all, we must understand it. So our code generates business value when it's running. So we need to understand our code when it is running. And we want to make good decisions because we like getting paid. You want to pay someone that makes bad decisions. But there is a problem with that. It's very hard to reason about code. So I want to propose a challenge here and ask you guys which implementation of this weird dispatch function seems to be faster. Dispatch functions receives a list of data. The first implementation gets this list and maps synchronously over it, doing some kind of IO. Then it waits for all these async tasks to stop and then collects the results. Let's say that this IO is some disk-based IO. And the second implementation doesn't do anything. It's synchronous, but does it in bulk. So anyone at work with databases and disk-based devices know that doing stuff in bulk is always better in a sense of throughput because you can take advantage of aligned rights and things like that. So I would argue that it seems that doing bulk IO should be faster. This is some kind of model I'm constructing in my head about what seems to be faster. But if I show you the actual answer to this is we don't know. We don't know which implementation is faster because, well, maybe there's this one minute sleep beside the some bulk IO implementation. Only by looking at the code, we can't actually say it if it is how it will perform. So the mental model we have of our system is always, it is always flawed. We can never build a perfect model of our system. But wait, there's still hope. And how can we deal with these sorts of problems? Well, we measure stuff. And here is timing executions to both the first implementation and the second implementation. And you can see that the first one performs in 0.3 seconds in wall clock time and the second one in 60 seconds. So we probably should remove that one minute sleep there. As you can see, the remainder of the 60 seconds there, 0.06 seconds, is actually faster. So in order to understand the business value we are generating, we need to see our code for when it generates business value. We need to see it for when it runs. This, my friends, is science.  I like to say that this is changing stuff and seeing what happens. That's what we do all the time. And that's why I love being a software developer is because we get to change stuff and see what happens. So I'm going to, this is like a very simple and contrived example to why it is important to measure stuff. But you can imagine that today modern applications, they have lots and lots and lots of different components. And it is going increasingly hard to think about what our system does and how it behaves only through diagrams and things like that. We need to see our code for what it is when it's running. So I'm going to talk now about some types of metrics and how we look at them, what are some important aspects of metrics, and then we'll go and show how we can get to use these in elixir applications. First, the metrics we're interested in are time series. What I mean by time series is that something that varies with time. Like you guys probably have seen things like that, graphs like that. There's some value and it varies with time. That's why it's called a time series. And the first metric we all hear about is the average value. Everyone talks about average values. And average value is defined by this boring math stuff I want to speak about. But it's something like, you can explain it with a thing like that. There's some value that encompasses all the area behind that curve. Those of you who took calculus class in school or college are probably familiar with this picture. And the most important thing here is when you talk about an average value, you need to talk about the period of time to which this average refers to. As we can see in the picture, there's an A value and A. It's not very clear to see, but there's a beginning and an end to the period to which the average refers to. If we fixate the beginning and let the finish go on with time, we'll see a picture like this. The average value will tend to plateau over a specific value. And we will lose completely the sense of recency and the variation of the data. If you guys have, how many of you here measure your things in production? Have something like New Relic and quite a lot of people. So if you were to do this in your platform of choice, fixate the beginning of the average value and let the time go, you'll see something like this. So we completely lose the sense of variability and recency, which is something very important when you're collecting metrics because we don't actually care about, well, how was the response time for this action one month ago? Well, I'm not really interested in that. I'm interested if the response time for this action is 10 times higher than it used to be. It's probably because there is a problem or because we introduced some change that had performance regressions and things like that. We need to take care about a sense of recency. And in order to do that, we can hack the average value formula with that term there to add a weighted average. We tend to give more value to the more recent values. And we get, imagine that the lighter line is the raw metrics and the bright red is the average value. You can see that the average value tends to follow the original value. It retains a little bit of recency. And you can tune the decay exponential to see how much of it you retain or not. So it's very important to take a look at that. Another important aspect of metrics I like to talk about is distribution. Who in here never saw a picture like that? Everyone saw, this is a histogram. There's also a boring math stuff to it. I'm only showing this because I want you guys to know there's theory behind it, but you don't need to know the theory to get job done. So when you're looking at a histogram, many things start to look very clear from the picture. Imagine that this is a measurement of response times of some web application. So you can see that there's two very distinct populations of data here. There's a lot of requests that tend to respond in like 50 milliseconds. And then the thing, there's another population of data that tends to take more time than that. And you can see that by around 250 milliseconds, there's a huge climb in response time and nothing after that. That's probably means we're hitting some time out value. So only by looking at this picture, we can like devise a lot of models of what might be happening in my system. So we're seeing our system for what it is for when it's generating business value for when it runs. And histograms like when you tabulate, then they tend to look something like this. You don't actually report pictures to a metric system. You try to get some values of it like the mean value, the percentiles, who in here doesn't know what a percentile is? Well, a percentile is a value like the 99th percentile is a value in which 99% of all the other values in your sample are below it and 1% are higher than it. So it's like the average value takes 50% of the values to the left and 50% to the right. The percentile is a generalization of this concept. So when you actually collect and report values that are called histograms, you're actually collecting and reporting percentiles and things like that. Histograms are like average on steroids. But you all like in the case of averages, you need to think about to which period does these percentiles refer to? I will talk about how this ends up showing in tooling after that. Another point is resolution. This is a sine wave and it's adequately sampled. So you can from the sample see the shape of the curve. But imagine that I were to sample it like three times slower. I would get a picture like this. As you can see, we are losing lots of peaks between the little dots which are the samples. And we are actually thinking that the frequency to which our data varies is much lower than it actually is. So when you measure stuff, you have to take care to measure stuff in a resolution that shows what actually is happening. You don't want to lose peaks, you don't want to lose these kinds of things. So I have talked about all of this and how do I get started in the real world? Like I'm talking about important aspects of metrics, but how does this translate to my day-to-day? If you want to use metrics in your day job, you have to solve four specific problems. You have to solve how you collect metrics, how you store metrics because you want to store them because you want to query, analyze, and transform this data so that you, and then you can visualize it and make decisions, right? If you only collect data but you don't store it, you're going to lose very valuable information. So now I'll show how we do our metric collections at Sherpa and then explain why we chose this set of technologies. So I'll go backwards here. We visualize our metrics with Grafana. When here has heard of Grafana? Oh, that's surprising. Grafana is very beautiful and very easy to use. We store our metrics in InfluxDB. When here has heard of InfluxDB, fewer people. So InfluxDB is a database tailored for time series data. It is made to store, query, analyze, and transform time series data. It has lots of features that allow you to tune the samples and things like that. And we have four major metric collection points. We have, we use HA proxy to serve assets and things like that. We collect its logs and parse it and report it to InfluxDB. We use collectD. When here has heard of collectD, collectD is a daemon that collects machine information like disk usage, memory, and this raw, more coarse machine, system-level metrics. We have our front-end and closure script. We have a very simple API to which the front-end reports metrics to. And we have our Elixir, Phoenix, Backend, everything, and Sherpa is. Actually, we have mostly these two components, the front-end and closure script, and the back-end, everything we're doing at Elixir. And we, in Elixir side, we use Exometer and Elixometer. Elixometer is actually just a front-end for Exometer, which is a library to collect and gives you various tools to collect. I'll talk more about that, how you report data. So, to collect data, we chose Exometer and Elixometer because they were very easy to set up. It was very easy, very well documented, so we tried it in an afternoon and it all worked fine, so we went for that. We don't have scalability issues and stuff like that yet, so we didn't overthink it, and since the solution worked, we chose it. We have used CollectD extensively in the past, so it's probably best to use something you already know. In FlexDB, it was very, very easy to set up and configure. It is free of charge. It has built-in retention policy configuration, so you get to say for how much time you want to keep the data, how the resolution you want for it, and all of those things are very easy to set up. It has an awesome query language. It is SQL Live query language. It has a feature called Continuous Queries, which you were able to write a query that will run continuously and you use it to transform and analyze data on the go. So it spreads out the load on the storage server. It's very nice, and it plugs similarly with Grafana. It's very easy, if you haven't, we will see how easy it is in just a couple of minutes. And we use Grafana in the past. It's very beautiful, you will see that. And you might ask, why are not using a solution like Splunk, Datadog, and all of those SAS? Who in here uses Neuralix, Splunk? I think that's probably the go-to solution for most people. And in fact, first, we don't like our data outside of our walls. And since we're dealing with HR stuff, there's lots of NDAs and legal obligations. We're not actually allowed to send customer data to third parties. So that's not really an option for us. That's why we built this architecture and we're doing everything by hand, so to speak. So just a quick overview of what Exometer does. This design is, how did this one broke? This design is prevalent in most metrics collection libraries. You have a high-frequency metrics report that comes from the application. There's a layer that stores in memory and updates an aggregated view of the data, like for example, you want to report how long did it take for this controller action to finish? You don't want actually to report every single point, every single request, because it might overload the storage. So you pre-aggregate it and a tool like Exometer gives you enough room to configure and change that. And there's a reporting layer that collects this buffer and adapts it and formats it to how very different backhands might expect its data to come from. So there's an influx DB Exometer reporter that we use. That's one of the reasons why we chose Exometer, because there was already a reporter built for us. So that's mostly, this design is present in Java metrics library, in Ruby metrics library. It's very common. And other tools like StatsD, Telegraph might fit the role of Exometer in our case. Use the one you're most comfortable with. It is very important, I want to emphasize that, it is very important to be able to control the frequency which your storage receives requests. You don't want to overload it. You don't want to spend time thinking about scaling your metrics collection stuff. And that's probably why many people go for hosted solutions, right? Because you don't need to think these problems through. So now I'll show a very simple demonstration how we could measure all requests through a Phoenix app. There are steps by step instructions in this blog post. I have recorded the demo because I'm not brave enough to do it live, so bear with me. So we're starting a new Phoenix project. I haven't like edited the video, so it would look more real. So I think I was, pretend I'm typing here. And we're starting a new project called metrics. Everything live. And now we won't need to configure Exometer and the reporter, so we go into mix. We add the dependencies there. With the, there's some sort of hacking you need to do to get the dependencies right because some libraries have conflicting declared dependencies, but everything works. We've been using this in production for over six months, so believe me, it's safe to do so. There's this amazing feature of Phoenix. One of the things I like most when I saw it is this override true option where you can say, well, screw your dependency revolution algorithm. I want you to use this version. Well, it's very not, who haven't spent hours trying debugging version issues, right? So after we got the dependencies there, we need to add a lexometer to our list of applications, standard procedure. And in config.exe, we add the configuration for a lexometer and the exometer reporter. All we have to do is like copy and paste and changing stuff that changes your case. So we're creating a DB and influx DB called elixirconf. We will see March of that afterwards. Well, I tried to compile, but it won't compile because I forgot to change my directory and I forgot to get the dependencies. You can see that it's more real when there are errors involved, right? So now it will probably compile and compile all the dependencies and it will take a couple of seconds, bear with me. Am I speaking too fast? It's very weird because when you're speaking in a different language, you're like, you don't know if anyone is understanding anything. So now what we're gonna do is we'll start Docker containers with Grafana and influx DB. Now I will start a container with influx DB version 0.10. There's an error there. So I have already downloaded stuff, so you won't need to wait. And the same thing for Grafana. That's not actually what we do in production because, well, we don't use Docker in production for various philosophical reasons, but yeah, I won't actually talk about that. So, come on. So we have started the services and here's Grafana. It is live. It is very securely protected with admin admin credentials. So it's working, right? We can see that we have probably stuff. So in order to set up a data source for influx DB, we need to choose the type of the data source, give it a name, credentials, and things like that. That's all it actually needs to do to connect Grafana to influx DB. And there's a mistake there that's not actually there that you need to put the credentials. So there it goes. So Elixir Conf, the database we put in config.exe, and data source is added. And when you click test connection, if it is green, it means it worked. That's very nice of the configuration to be able to do that. So, and now we actually need to create the Elixir Conf database, much like we do when we're using a relational database. Influx DB exposes an HTTP API. So we just use curl here to send stuff. So, all right, it's 200, means it is okay. Elixir Conf database is created. And now what we're gonna do is we're gonna configure our recently created Phoenix app to measure every single request that passes through it. We're going to make a graph of it afterwards. So we're going to use plug. We're creating a metrics plug that in web.exe we're adding it into the controller. So anything that you put in this code of expressions in controller is going to be injected in every single controller in your app. So that's a seam you have in Phoenix apps to customize and metaprogram things. So now we're going to actually create this metrics plug. And so, who in here is familiar with plug in Phoenix? All right, so I will need to explain a lot of it. So, in order to report metrics, we need to put that use alexometer clause. That's all we need to do to get all of alexometer reporting functions to create metrics and things like that. It's very easy to do so. We like every plug definition, we just don't use the options. So, we'll annotate the start time of our request using Erlang's monotonic time. This will give the instant in time where, in milliseconds, where the request started. And then we will have, before sending the data back to the user, we're going to get the period of time, get the interval of time for that. So, if you want to have a counter, all you have to do is call update counter, give it a name and the amount of increment you want to put on. And to use a histogram, it's pretty much the same. So, we're going to define a metric name afterwards and we're going to put the request duration in that histogram. We're going to define the request duration and use a function we have not wrote yet called elapsed time that will give us the elapsed time for the request in milliseconds. And as with every single plug, you have to return the connection. Since we're not changing anything in the connection, we just return it. So, what we're going to do is just get the monotonic time at the end of a request, subtract from the start time, and that is all. Now, we need to create a name for this metric. We don't want all of our metrics reported to the same metric, right? Every single action reporting to the same metric name. So, Phoenix gives us a very easy way to do that. In Phoenix Controller, you can get the action name from the con and the controller name with the similar name function. It is very easy. To get that information out of Phoenix. One of the things that I like most about Phoenix is how explicit everything is. So, the name of our metric is going to be the name of the controller slash hash, I don't know, the name of the action. But we forgot, we actually need to execute this duration when the request is, just before the request gets responded. And we do that using the register before send function we have in plug con. This will, just before sending the response back to the user, it will call every function you pass to it. Since, yeah. So, what, sorry? Oh, yeah, it's weird, eMaxHackery. I haven't even realized, sorry. It's the fn, like, it's a chart for the fn. Yeah, that happens when you use eMax to long. So, that is all we need to do. And we're going now to create a test action in a page controller only to show how this works. And in page controller we will define a test action just exactly the same as index but with a timer sleep in there. So, we'll sleep for some time and this time is going to be a uniformly varied random number from zero to 500 milliseconds. So, now we're going to start our Phoenix app, right? So, if you see this message in FlexDB report a connection success, that means it worked and it is now reporting Xometer metrics to in FlexDB. So, now we're going to access this recently created route. As we can see it worked, right? Hello, metrics, hello, elux.com. And we can see in the logs that stuff's working. Right? So, now we're going to write a very simple shelf script that will keep making requests to our page so we can graph them over time. So, I think I would just accelerate stuff a bit here. So, we're not at shelf script comp. So, I have like a pathological love for shelf scripts. I figured that most people don't have the same love I do. But let me just show what we're doing here. Just a second. Come on. Well, yeah, that's right. What you're going to do here is we'll silently execute what we were doing in the browser. So, we will not see output in the terminal. And we're going to spawn a given number of curl processes and then wait for all of them to stop. So, what we're going to do is we'll run the script and we'll continuously keep making requests to our Phoenix app. Hit dot us H. We forgot to give it the number of concurrent requests we want to keep happening. So, there it is. It is waiting because we have stopped our Phoenix app. We get it back to foreground. And now things will start to keep rolling, right? So, in the background you can see different numbers for the request time there going fast. So, it means our sleep is working. Now, we're going to create a dashboard in Grafana to show this reporter metrics. So, one of the things I love the most about Grafana is the query editor. You don't actually need to know in FlexDB's query language. You can just point and click at stuff and it works. Reminds me of the time I was working with SQL Server. So, there you choose the data source and we're going to get the last five minutes of reporter metrics. And you can select all of the various parameters and everything. So, what we're doing here is the green line is the mean time it takes to respond to requests and the yellow line is the maximum, the maximum. No, the ninth, nine, ninth percentile. So, it is just logical that the higher the percentile, the higher the value. So, the higher the value. So, as you can see there, the average value we wait, the average time we wait when doing this request is around 250 milliseconds, which is what you expect from a uniform distribution from zero to 500 and the maximum value is 500 milliseconds. So, means it's doing okay. It's doing okay. So, that's all I have for the demo and other things that you should be measuring in Elixir and Erlang applications. The Erlang VM is awesome. That is why we are all here. There are lots of resources out there on how to measure, monitor and operate it. Sadly, I don't have enough time to go in depth about it. I tried to give a high level overview of why it is important to collect metrics and how easy it is to get started with an architecture like we did. You don't need to get your data off your grounds. But, there's a very nice library called VMStats that help you gather virtual machine metrics. Measuring stuff in the Erlang VM is actually, there's lots of caveats to it. It's not like every other language that I worked with. And, there's this great book called Stuffs Goes Bad, Erlang and Anger by Fred Hubbard that gives invaluable information on how you can profile and inspect a production live system in Erlang. If you don't know Fred Hubbard, he's the guy who wrote the learning of summer lung for great good, which is a great book, highly recommended. And, some closing remarks with, yeah, just finishing our time here. Find seams in your code where you can plug measurements, like plug itself. Try not to spread metrics reporting everywhere. Like, it gets really, really fast. It gets like, those logging, who in here haven't worked in an application where there's logs everywhere and you can't see the damn business logic because there's so many logs. And, it's very easy to get to that point of metrics too, I say from experience. Try not to spread your metrics reporting everywhere. It's very hard to make reason of them if you do it that way. Try to separate high-level measurements from low-level ones. And, this is just the beginning. After you have this infrastructure in place, you have to start doing analysis, correlation, and other boring math stuff. There's where the real goal is. Having a metric that you don't look at and don't drive your decisions is not valuable at all. One of the things I like to do is bend the metrics to generate alerts. Like, if the response time of this action is taking more than 500 milliseconds, something's probably wrong. So, you can plug that in PagerDuty on whatever alert system you're using. So, it's very easy to do so on Influx DB2. There's a product from Influx called Capacitor. I think that does exactly that. Another similar metrics collection architecture described in that blog post. It came, like, one week after I finished this, making those lights. It's a very good read, too, from the guys at Football Addicts. Zed Shaw has an awesome post about statistics and how we can use the statistics. And the title of the blog post is, programmers need to learn statistics or I will kill them all. It's a very entertaining read. And thank you. These are my contacts and I think we have enough time for questions. Or we do not. I don't know. So, it was my first talk in English. I was completely terrified. So, it's a very different beast speaking a different language. Okay, I think it's working. How does Grafana and InfluxDB compare to Elasticsearch and Kibana? Okay, I haven't used Elasticsearch and Kibana, not for this use case, but it seems that it's likely that they fit the same role in reporting. Elastic has a suite of products, like Influx does, that gives you a batteries-included solution for alerting and things like that. I think that you probably, with Logstash, Kibana, Elasticsearch, you solve the same problem we did here with Influx and Grafana and Exometer. So, I don't know, use whatever you have experience with, with whatever you feel it's more appropriate. But the main point, because we chose these architectures, that when we started doing it a year ago, we had libraries that solved most of the problems for us. So, I think that today, the landscape might have changed in the Elasticsearch community, but yeah, have I answered your question? Okay, I don't know much about Kibana, so. Sorry about that. Any more questions? So, I think that's it. Thank you. Thank you.