Hello everyone, I'm You Xiong Huan. Today I'm going to talk about our work on the Comprehensive Oracle Technique and Post-Quantum Security of Proof of Sequential Work. So this is a joint work with Kaimin Zhong, SearchFear, Myself and TinyNail. First we're going to talk about the Quantum Render Oracle model, and then we give a brief summary of our results. As a commonly used technique, we talk about the lazy sampling in both classical and quantum settings. Finally, we discuss our results in more detail. So the Render Oracle model is a common way to analyze classical cryptographic schemes that use a hash function. Here, hash functions are idealized into uniformly sampled functions that everyone has access to. Previous into the quantum settings, everyone can make the query in superposition. Contrary to the sequential query, we are in the setting of parallel query in which multiple data points could be asked for a single query round. A typical example problem in the Render Oracle model is a zero-premise problem which asks to find an input that is mapped to zero. It is well studied and understood in both classical and quantum settings. For example, when given parallel access to the Render Oracle, running global search in parallel is known to be optimal. Another example problem in the Render Oracle model is a hash run problem which asks to find a sequence of inputs x0 to xq such that one is mapped to another. We refer to this as finding the hashq chain, and it is easy with Q-scratch queries but expected to be hard with less than Q-scratch queries even if we are given parallel access to the Render Oracle. This is mainly because the data points being asked in a single query round are non-adaptive which means they should not depend on their query output. The harness for the hash run problem is easy to show in the classical setting but there hasn't been any quantum proof parallel work. So what have we done? We offer a useful framework for analyzing such problems in the parallel query quantum Render Oracle model. Using our framework, one can prove quantum harness of this kind of problems using classical reasoning, and this works by lifting classical proof into quantum proof if in suitable form. For demonstration, we apply our framework into solving various example problems such as simplifying existing proof such as the harness for a zero-primes problem and also obtain new bounds such as for the collision finding problem and for the Q-chain finding problem. The main application of our framework is that we give the first post-quantity security proof of the PLSW scheme or the proof of sequential work scheme constructed by Cohen and Piatrack in 2018. Independent and concurrent to our work, Blocky et al also managed to give the post-quantity security proof of the PLSW scheme. However, their proof is tailored to the specific problem whereas our framework is generally more applicable into various example problems. Also to understand their proof, a certain amount of quantum information science is required while assuming our framework is correct, verifying our proof is just a matter of purely classical reasoning. So next, let's talk about the lazy sampling technique. It is useful for analyzing harm problems in the random oracle model. So instead of sampling the entire hash function, the random oracle function, at the beginning we use a database to simulate a random oracle. The database is initially empty and whenever an entry being queried we sample the fresh randomness for that entry. Formally, the database is a partial function with augmented value but and after Q queries there will be no more than Q non-empty entries within the database. For analyzing the zero-premise problem, an important observation is that if there is no zero within the database DQ then the adversary is unlikely to output one zero-premise neither because his best guess is some input that is not recorded within the database. But this will success with probability no more than the exponentially small error bound. Formally we can write this down as in following probability bounds. Putting this into the content settings, it is a way to understand Zendry's compressed oracle technique in the sense that now the database state are in a content state and whenever an entry being queried we are essentially applying the compressed oracle onto the content state of the database. Formally the state of database is now in a superposition of partial functions with no more than Q non-empty entries after Q queries. So here similar observation applies. If there is no zero within the database DQ which is obtained by measuring the database state after Q queries then the adversary is unlikely to output one zero-premise neither except here the error bound is slightly different. Although this simulation is not obvious it is a way to understand Zendry's compressed oracle technique. And notice that now we have reduced the probability of adversary finding a zero-premise into the probability of database having a zero within some of its entry. But how do we bound this desired probability? Next let's see the classical analysis of zero-premise problem and keep in mind that our goal is to eventually lift them into the content proof using our framework. We have two observations. First we observe that if after Q queries, sequential queries the database acquire a zero within some of its entries then the zero must occur within one of the Q sequential queries. We can therefore bound the desired probability by summing together this bracket notation we called the transient capacities which is simply the maximal probability database shifting from not having a zero within some of its entry to having a zero. And second we observe that if after one parallel query the database acquire a zero within some of its entries then that zero must occur within one of the queried entries. Put this all together we can now bound the desired probability database having a zero. For the second observation we are using the technology the transition of database shifting from not having a zero within some of its entry to having a zero is strongly recognizable by local properties zero. And here we refer to the database property zero being local because it only depends on one entry of the queried database. Put this into a higher level we obtain the following recipe. First we decompose the desired probability of database into sum of transient capacities. And second we bound the transient capacities by the probability of local properties that recognize the transition. And in our framework we use pretty much the same recipe except now we are in the quantum settings so different definition of transient capacities and correspondingly adjusted formulas to bound these transient capacities and probabilities. So similarly first we decompose the desired probability into sum of transient capacities. And second we recycle probability bounds from classical analysis and plug into our formulas to obtain quantum transient to obtain bound for quantum transient capacities. We also in case of weaker notion of recognizability provide correspondingly a different formulas but the point here is it also just a matter of recycling probability bound from classical analysis and plug into our formulas to obtain quantum bound. Now back to the zero-premise example. We can finally using our recipe to lift our classical analysis of zero-premise problem into the quantum analysis. So first we recycle local properties and probability from classical analysis and then we plug in the probability into our formulas to obtain quantum bound for the transient capacities. Summing together these transient capacities we obtain a square root probability bound for the database having a zero within sum of its entry. Finally by Zandri's compressor called lemma we obtain the probability the probability adversely finding a zero-premise with only an exponentially small error term. The function here is we don't need to understand the definition of transient capacities we can simply lift the classical proof into quantum proof using our framework. By using the same recipe we obtain several additional results. This includes a better bound for a collision-finding problem and also a new bound for the future finding problem. It is also worth mentioning that our improved bound for collision-finding problem is in fact sharp in the sense that we can parallelize a BHT collision-finding algorithm and the success probability will meet our asymptotic upper bound. The main application of our framework is that we prove the post-quantum security of the non-interactive variant of the PSW scheme or the proof of sequential work scheme constructed by Cohen and Piatrack in 2018. So the proof of sequential work scheme is a cryptographic primitive that is interesting in the context of blockchain in which a prover interacts with a verifier and we want to force the prover to do a lot of sequential computational work in order to convince the verifier while assuring the verification process is logarithmically fast. At the bottom level of the PSW scheme constructed by Cohen and Piatrack is a so-called PSW graph which is simply a merkle tree with additional red edges as you can see in the following figures. So we are essentially forcing the prover to compute labelling on each of the vertex within the PSW graph which will require a lot of sequential computational work. So for each vertex, the label of it is computed by the hash of the labels of its incoming vertices. In case of internal vertices, it is as if computing the labelling in the merkle tree. And for leaf vertices, we are essentially computing the labelling from the hash of vertices from the red edges. For example, if we want to compute the label L11, we need to compute hash of the label L0 and L10 as they are from the red edges connected to L11. So next, let's see the PSW scheme. We talk about the interactive variant here, but we can also non-interactive this by fiascia minetransform, which is the target we analyze in our paper. So first, the prover computes the entire labelling on the PSW graph and returns the root label to the verifier. And second, the verifier will challenge the prover to open several random leaves of the PSW graph. Correspondingly, the prover will respond the authentication path of challenged leaves. At the end, the verifier will only need to check consistency of these opened labelling on the authentication paths. For analysis, the intuition is as follows. Since we have collision and pre-image resistance, once the root label is set to the verifier, the entire labelling of the tree is fixed. And if there are too many chasing leaves on the PSW graph, then it is easily caught by the opening process of the Merkle tree. But if there is only few chasing leaves, then there is a long hash chain going through most of the vertices within the PSW graph. For example, you can see the following figure. If the prover cheats on these two red vertices, then the green hash chain will go through the rest of the vertices. Therefore, by the previously mentioned hash chain bound, this will require a lot of sequential computational work. As we can see, in this analysis, we need to consider intertwined core problems such as collision finding problem, pre-image finding problem, and also hash chain finding problem. In order to deal with this mix of problems, the situation is more complicated and we cannot simply apply previous recipe. We need rules to decompose these complicated transition capacities about the intertwined core problems into simpler forms. That's why we are giving calculus for transition capacities. This includes some basic rules to manipulate the capacities. For example, the capacities are symmetric and whenever encountering union properties, we have something like quantum union bound and also lower bound for that. When we encounter intersection of database property, we also have bound for that. These are relatively intuitive and we also have more involved calculus rules to manipulate the transition capacities. The pattern here is this allows us to work with the transition capacities on an abstract level understanding the definition of transition capacities. We can by means of these calculus rules to decompose the transition capacities that captures the security of previously mentioned PSW scheme into simpler form and from which we can apply the previously mentioned recipe for the rest of our analysis. Finally, let's recap on our contribution. We offer a useful framework that whenever applicable, help us prove query complexity bound in the parallel query quantum random oracle model. This works by purely classical reasoning that lift classical proofs into quantum proofs. For demonstration, we apply our framework into various example problems including recovering non-results and also find new bounds. Finally, we encourage the audience to refer to our paper for more detail and thanks for listening.


Hello and welcome to the Growth Summit 2023 here in Geneva. I'm Juliet Mann, I'm an anchor for CGTN China's International Channel and I'm going to run you through our next session, which is growth hotspots, the new geography of investment and growth. I'm just going to throw a few numbers at you just to get us all in the zone here. Growth is forecast at around 2.7% in 2023, with around a third of the world's economy facing a technical recession. Now that's nearly the weakest growth outlook in over 20 years. But there are new opportunities in emerging markets, emerging geographies, leading in areas like food, like tourism, green tech, energy, digital services and more. So which countries and regions are going to drive global growth, are going to generate investment, attract that investment, not just now, but over the next decade. Here with me now are a fantastic panel to talk through just that, where the growth is going to come from. I've got Mamustique Feller, who's the Minister of Investment at Trade and Industry of Botswana. Thank you for coming. We've got Karen Harris, who is the Managing Director of the Macro Trends Group at Beylenco consultancy. And also joining us here is Burak Doglu, who's the President of the Investment Office of Turkey. What a great panel. Now, I think I'll start with you, Moussi, because as we speak, there is such an uncertain economic backdrop, isn't there? I mean, is your outlook for the global economy still doom and gloom, or are things going to perk up a bit in 2023? I think there's a lot of room for improvement. We shouldn't look at it as altogether doom. When we look at, for instance, our entry into the African continent of free trade and area agreement, which is the largest since the WTO was formed, the whole objective of it is to integrate the rest of Africa from Cairo to Cape, so that we could then jointly grow together. There are many other regional agreements that we have in Southern Africa, for instance. We have the Southern African Customs Union and the Sadiq Agreement. I think if we properly implement those agreements and collaborate with one another, there is plenty of room for growth. And Africa is the new market. It's a market which has not been exploited before. It is now time for it to be exploited. And we're inviting Europeans and Americans to look into Africa. It is, especially in Botswana, being known for our peace and stability, our fiscal discipline. It is a very vast amount of space available for food production, green energy production. It is quite an appropriate place from which those companies which are advanced technologically can springboard from to access the greater African market. And it's really an invitation to all of you to consider Southern Africa and consider Botswana as a destination place to go and set up investments. So there is a lot of, I think, we are pregnant with prosperity. I think we are. So Botswana, Southern Africa, the continent of Africa open for business. Karen, I wonder what your take is on this. What do you see as the key global hotspots, but also the challenges that are going to be affecting international trade and investment? I think part of the reason there is such a doom and gloom story is that we're in this interesting period where we're at the end of this business cycle that was bizarrely fast as the world closed and then reopened and sort of bumbled its way into what looks like a recession, certainly in North America and in Europe now going forward. But at the same time, we are at the end of some important secular forces that are also transformational and really will help us guide us in this next cycle. Probably the most important of those is moving from globalization to what we call a vain post globalization, which is a more fragmented world where trade and investment will have more barriers. Now there are lots, it's easy to talk about the downsides of that, but I think the opportunities there are, we go from a world that was largely, scale was unlimited in many respects. We had free movement of goods, the larger you could get the better and that presented one set of opportunities. But as we move into a more fragmented post global world, there will be different opportunities, certainly in the private sector to serve different markets that will have more localization, will have more focused domestically. Now, again, it's easy to bemoan industrial policy and of course China's always had industrial policy. The U.S. started quickly out of the gate with the Inflation Reduction Act. But at the same time, I think this more fragmented world creates opportunities for different experiments in green energy, different ways of attacking agriculture and other commodities and different business structures for trade that I think will be quite positive over this next cycle. I think the Inflation Reduction Act is possibly a conversation or a topic for an entire, a whole panel. There's lots to talk about there, but talk about opportunities. So, Puruak, let's talk about those opportunities and the green shoots. What do you think they are, the things that are going to lift growth prospects? Is it China? Is it the United States? Are there any particular emerging economies? First of all, thank you for the question. And during this summit and in other global platforms, we all agree that the growth must be, first of all, sustainable. Secondly, inclusive. And third, it has to be resilient. And to achieve that target, of course, it's not easy, but it definitely should be inclusive and all geographies should be aligned in these regards. So, when we look at those, for example, for the trade, last year, the trading goods were below the forecast that growth. And for the next year, the WTO expects that it will be 1.7%. This is nothing. So, most probably, these new emerging industries will make a kind of difference. And of course, the services trade will make a difference. So, when we look at those global hotspots as the geographies, all those trends that we mentioned, longer-term trends like sustainability agenda, digitalization, and we all know that globally there is a labor challenge. I mean, we are talking about this great resignation and et cetera. It's all resulting in a huge supply chain restructuring globally. I think the next growth will be around this team. So, the global supply chains are changing. Different countries in different parts of the world, like in Asia, in Latin, in Africa, is emerging. And in our region, Turkey is at the nexus of Africa, Europe, and Asia. We believe that Turkey is taking the advantage of this new restructuring with given indicators, like exports are growing very rapidly, economy is growing. And I think this will be the new team, I mean, the restructuring of the global supply chains. And Botswana's economy is growing as well. There's growth forecasts that have increased. I mean, are there any particular sectors that you're excited about that sustainable growth is coming from? Yes, tourism and manufacturing as well as the pursuit of intellectual property is something which we are in hot pursuit of and it's one which has the potential of greatly growing the economy. But mainly on manufacturing. We have for a long time been an economy which was resource-based and not so much one focused on manufacturing because it's a part of industrialization. The bigger industrialization pursuit, which we have embarked upon as Southern African Customs Union and also the whole of the African continent, we are seeking to industrialize. So, we are working a great deal and also funding initiatives in manufacturing and also creating a climate within which industrialization can flourish. Both domestically grown or even if it's foreign based or foreign invitation from outside the country. So that's really what I thought I could maybe share with you when it comes to growth. In terms of investment, Karen, that's going to stoke growth. Where's hot? What's not? Well, I think when I just think about the context of this panel, one of the concerns that I have is when I think about the investment strategy that worked brilliantly for the last since World War II to lift economies really out to transform them, it was export-led growth. I mean, that's what the Asian Tigers, Japan, out of World War II, China all replicated that. And if we think about a fragmented world with workforces that are declining in China, in Europe, in the United States growing slowly, that all points to automation. And there's been a lot of talk during this session here in Geneva about AI, but it's much more than that. It's human hand dexterity, it's sensors, all of which are disruptive. The discussion about reshoring, which has a lot of energy in North America, is predicated on automation. There simply isn't the labor to do that. In a world where things are reshored, supply chains shift, but it's automated at the bottom of production, the question is, how do countries begin to climb that ladder of manufacturing without that labor arbitrage that was so effective before? And I think that's something that I'm really concerned about when I think about development strategies. Not many countries have the scale of India, both internally with markets and externally. And so that, I think, is when we think about growth hot spots, it points to North America, to China, to those industries, but other markets will have to be more creative in the strategies that they pursue. So you're talking about being creative, you're talking about being more nimble. I'm thinking of Botswana who are much focused on diamonds, but there are big investments in infrastructure, aren't there? So also in technology, you mentioned tourism already. Tell us about those and the potential there for regional partnerships. It's mainly green technology, green energy. When we heard the whole world gravitating towards the abandonment of fossil fuel propelled machinery, we immediately set our sights on possibly playing a role in the production of electric machinery, electric vehicles. We accept that we are not in a position yet to manufacture full vehicle, but in terms of harnesses and components, which are electric-based, that's what we are embarking upon. We are looking more, have our sights on the wealth of minerals that we have deposits which can be useful in our support of the green technology. So we are really open. We're also very much open to solar energy because we receive about 3,200 hours of sunshine per annum. So it's another area which we, because we and Namibia are looking at. So it's an investment opportunity. But we are really hoping that there could be some research and innovation to make it more sustainable and less expensive to sustain the solar energy production. Because at present, we do quite know that, yes, it's well and good to the ears to embark upon, but the capital is quite a capital-intensive exercise and the challenges of storage of that kind of energy. So if there could be research, we are funding a lot of research and development. If there could be a breakthrough in the capacity to harness this energy and be a part of the greater scheme of the whole world of conducting our industrialization in a clean manner. So I'm really making an invitation to embark on green technology. We're not blessed with water, so we can't look into hydroelectric power. We are to some degree in the southwestern part, but it's not as great as the sun opportunity that is there. So those are some of the things that are really my contribution towards. So some big investment opportunities there, scope for partnerships. I wonder what the investment picture is like in Turkey, because you've got eye-watering inflation. You've also had the devastating earthquakes and the fallout about that, lots of uncertainty also about the upcoming presidential elections. How can all of that maybe impact the longer-term growth and investment outlook? First of all, we would like to thank the international community, especially the international business community, for supporting us, for standing with us during the earthquake and we are in the recovery. Secondly, inflation was high. It is declining very rapidly. It's being tamed. So, of course, it's a challenge for all the companies, but a country like Turkey, we are very flexible, agile, and I think we were able to adapt our business models and et cetera quickly. And election, yeah, sometimes for emerging markets it's like uncertainty, as you said, but I think for the case of Turkey, in the last two decades especially, we did many reforms. Our institutions are very strong. So for the investors, especially, we are speaking to international investors every day, but we don't have any questions. I mean, in the recent weeks, we have closed many deals. For example, tomorrow morning, we are going to announce a new investment in an R&D center of a multinational employing almost 1,000 people anyway. So I think that's not a big uncertainty. It's a kind of functioning democracy thing. So when it comes to growth, if you looked at the store of Turkey in the last two decades, compound annual growth rate is 5.4%. And as of the global economy, I think we managed to have a kind of remarkable growth. And this is what we hear all the time from international business community. Turkey has a resilient and fast growing economy. Of course, one of the reasons is that our commitment to the reform agenda in the last two decades and this is a continuous reform agenda and we will continue that agenda. Secondly, we have a deep, competent and competitive talent pool within the country, especially when we consider the global labor challenge, I think this is a very solid value proposition. Lastly, as I mentioned, we are at the necks of Europe, Asia and Africa. But this is not just the geography because we have been living in that geography for a long while, especially in the two decades, we invested a lot in the infrastructure. Energy, logistics, healthcare and education. And sometimes when we speak about infrastructure in digital markets, digital infrastructure is ignored sometimes. We have been investing in digital infrastructure as well. So, in addition to that, we, with our successful policies, we managed to develop Turkey as a powerhouse in the region. Turkey now is a regional manufacturing hub and we are driving our country to be an R&D hub in the region, to be a design house in the region. And all the global companies are now putting their regional management centers in Turkey, just as an example, in Turkey we have more than 600 multinationals having their R&D offices. So, we have around 100 multinational companies managing the region from Turkey. So, these are the long-term, fundamental, value proposition of Turkey and it will not change because of the short-term inflation. It will not be affected with the earthquake or elections. It will not change it. So, international investors are committed to our country and we believe that it will continue and this is the reason behind our successful growth. So, some real building blocks there, not just for Turkey, but for the region as well. You mentioned, Karen, China before and they said recently, right, they want to press the accelerator button when it comes to foreign diplomacy. How important do you think China is going to be to robust economic recovery and changing the investment picture to slope growth? Well, coming out of 2008, China was the engine of growth that dragged the world out of the financial crisis. It's not going to be that engine this time. Even the recent GDP numbers, over 4%, still relatively disappointing for hot growth coming out of COVID and I think that just shows some of the structural challenges that China has and as they've said, trying to transition their model to a more consumer-led one, dealing with government debt that is accumulated both nationally and regionally, that doesn't mean that China is an interesting for investors or doesn't have opportunities, but I don't see it as having that engine role pulling the world out of the global economy and it's symbolic of a more multi-polar world. There isn't a country at the apex that will have that position now or going forward. Is there a region at the apex? Is there a sector at the apex? There will be different regions that serve different roles. I think in this multi-polar world, certainly we see one hub around China, another around the United States that decoupling in terms of advanced technology is, I don't think, reversible in a meaningful way, but that doesn't preclude other parts of the world from having that sort of strength out to key out other areas. And I think, again, that's what's interesting. Is there an opportunity more regionalized to serve in a more localized interest? Saudi Arabia has done some very interesting investments in new energy along with traditional, obviously traditional fossil fuels and Ricardo Hausmann, who's here with us, has noted that the more diversity in exports you have, the better your development path. And so as we see countries begin to discuss how to find that diversity, there could be new hotspots. But I wouldn't say, as an investor or someone who works with investors, I certainly wouldn't say put it all on black with any country that's on the planet right now. Gosh, you're talking about the global economy and investing like a game of Russian roulette. Not Russian roulette. No roulette. You talked about investing in new technology, but I wonder where you see those new investment opportunities to unlock growth, because there isn't a one-size-fits-all, is there? There really isn't. And different regions, different countries have different challenges. Definitely. I mean, all the economies are in a different stage. And their competitive advantages are different. And sometimes focusing on some verticals may mislead us. When we encounter such question, I try to focus on some trends instead of some verticals. Of course, we value green economy, green energy, et cetera. And we talked about the period that we had in Turkey in the last two decades under the leadership of President Erdogan. A very big advantage of us, he's able to read the global trends very quickly and he's making those decisions. I mean, our story of green energy started 15 years ago, for example. Because of that reason, what we are seeing now, especially for the FDI inflows in the last three years, let me give you some specific figures. So one-third of the investments are coming from supply chain restructuring and one-third is coming from the technology startups. This is the digitalization of the economy. And when I refer to supply chain-related investments, first of all, companies are increasing their capacity within the country through expansions, through green-field investments. They are bringing their vendors or sometimes clients to Turkey. And another trend is to... It has been discussed that now we are talking about a more regionalization in the economy and reshoring, nearshoring, or Frenchhoring, whatever the name is. And when we look at the Turkey's effort, we are trying to create a region of stability and we are trying to integrate our geography, our neighborhood. We are ratifying in free trade agreements and et cetera. So this regional resilience and stability is quite important for us. So multinationals would like to use this opportunity to strengthen their supply chain. So the companies who were manufacturing in Turkey now they are bringing around post-manufacturing and pre-manufacturing activities to Turkey. So because this is important to make sure that their supply chain is functioning very well. A few words on the digitalization side. I think all the countries have to transform their industries with the new trends, I mean automation, digitalization. And this is a fact. So just another example. For example, in Turkey we have a very strong automotive industry. I mean we started manufacturing automobiles in 1960s. And now the automobile world is e-mobility. It is integrated, it is electrified, et cetera. So our policies are to encourage those companies to catch up with these trends and transform themselves. So my short answer is again the net trend to Turkey, let's say the supply chain changes are a major driving force of the FTIs. And secondly, that digitalization of the businesses, including those technology startups, are major drivers of investments and growth. So talking about those trends, you know, innovation ideas, implementation, these are things that forms like this have come to be known for. I mean what should policymakers be doing? What should businesses in emerging and developing economies do to turn all of these ideas into action? From a policymaker's perspective, you've got to pass policies which make it easy. Easy for investments to take root and once taken root for it to be sustained. You've got to pass policies which give assurance of safety of investments within territories. Investment protection. But conversely from the African context, we do things collectively in Africa. Our policies by and large are informed by what the African continent of retail area, the various agreements that come out or protocols which come out of it say. So it is very important to give assurance to investments and also have reduction or elimination of threats to security and peace. Have laws which are accessible and open and have courts which are or judicial systems which are independent to which investors can look when they feel a grift within the land within which they would have come in and invested. So I think those are really the things that we need as policymakers be looking into. But it's not just a question of having a policy. You've got to have to also fill it up and implement because a lot, many times we find ourselves with policies and laws, but we, the responsible leadership, simply giving it out and rolling out to the public, but then not ensuring or making sure that those that you leave us, the ones with which you implement that policy or law, actually working. Thought through. Thought through, actually working. So we need to keep an eye on it to be sure that these policies are not just many of the documents which get chained out, but yes, then get put away in shelves. So to make it meaningful. Make it meaningful. I want to use the last few minutes to see if there's anyone in our studio audience here who've got some questions for you. Anyone? I've got some questions. Yes, please stand up, sir, and say your name and please say who the question is for. Yes. My name is Shagawolo. I run the coordination of the African conditional free trade for public and private sector in Nigeria. Yes, I agree. A panel that is export lead growth that will really save the continent. That's why the leaders have signed the African continental free trade agreement area, the largest in the world, bigger than WTO for people to know. But my concern is really to do with automation vassals on employment. And I find that very challenging as we go forward. Last week I was in Kinshasha, DRC, and going through the road and seeing the population, I live in Lagos. I thought that was big and that was because the young, youthful population there tried to find employment for. But then seeing it in Kinshasha and right in my face there, I was like, wow, we really have a problem with this. And going forward, oh sorry, going forward, how do we use, well, go forward with digitalization and automation, but how do we also solve unemployment? Where are we going to create jobs for these young people if we start bringing automation into it? Let me just get the panel to quickly go through that because our time is running out. So I think we're actually just a quick fire response into that. How can you solve all of these? This is a very big debate. And what we see, the risk, it was discussed a lot. If you risk your people, according to the new business conditions, you don't have to fire anybody. So it is doable. And we witnessed that in many cases, this is happening in Turkey. So we are preserving employment at the same time. For example, last year we generated 1.8 million jobs in Turkey. So this is possible, I think, while digitalizing your economy, you can create jobs. Karen, it's a challenge. It is a challenge. When you think about the population, it's not a pyramid, it's a kite in Europe. And the lack of the bottom of the pyramid in North America, that's the incentive to speed up is in actually 35 to 45, that middle management. So automation solves a problem they face. Whereas, to your point, in Nigeria, in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, when you have a proper population pyramid, you don't want to be truncating those jobs. I don't have a good answer, but I agree with you that that's a challenge. Over time, new sectors emerge, but in the transition period, that does represent a real headwind. I think intra-African trade, which you are encouraging at AFCFT, once we increase trade within Africa itself, it may well be or maybe result in automation not being such an, after all, such a challenge. Because unemployment at present is escalated by the fact that I think, by the fact that the way in which Africa has been trading for a long time, we've been really exporting raw materials into Europe and the Americas and not adding value, value addition being done elsewhere. But I think if it's done internally, we may find that automation then becomes not... I think what we've got to here is there are lots of different variables and the conversation, I'm sure, is going to continue afterwards. We've been talking about the outlook for growth and investment with a fantastic panel. I'm going to go to Stella, to Burak Daglu and to Karen Harris from Beyn and Co. It's been upbeat, it's been interesting and I think that we've all got a lot to take home with us. Thank you all very much from the Growth Summit 2023. Thank you very much.


What's going on guys?  Now if you guys do enjoy the video, at the end leaving a like is much much appreciated but let's just get straight into this top 5. In at number 5 we have a clip sent in by ScrambyVision.   No way that Fist of Panic should have impacted him from there. Either way it's funny how he dies. We have a clip sent in by a soul called Warrior. Ok so we know of Randal the Vandal but have you ever heard the rumours of his cousin Greg the Dreg? I believe what we have here is the first ever captive footage of this rare creature. Embrace it. We need to nuke this guy. Apparently they don't like tech cats. I need to mess up some launchcoaster Russian. Oh look that bubble's still up there.  This is a Trippier's car that we're doing. Why won't this Dreg die? He took away my sword.  Yeah this lobby is so trippy. My sword is only at 20 ammo and it's on fire. We need to step this Dreg up in a 1v1 battle against Vax's. He'll win. I'm not complaining because I'm just getting 3 axe energy from swiping this guy up. In at number 2 we have a clip sent in by the Reaper Penguin.  Then we have a clip sent in by Mr Jiggity Jack. Now this is one of the most impressive feats I've ever seen. He managed to take a sparrow literally right the way through the hole we were after the machine raid right up until the very very end. Absolutely incredible. We have to get him below the damage. Come on. Take him to sword. Why did we shoot Tethered earlier? I tell him to. More damage. Come on please. We got him. We got him. We got him. We got him. We got him. We got him. We need to kill him now. Pop your heavy ammo since if we need you. Come on. Shoot. Shoot. Shoot that motherfucker. Shoot everything you have. Come on. Come on. Come on. Shoot him. Shoot him. Shoot him. Shoot him. Shoot him. Shoot him. Shoot him. Shoot him. Shoot him. Shoot him. Shoot him. Shoot him. Shoot him. Shoot him. Shoot him. Shoot him. Shoot him. Shoot him. Shoot him. Shoot him. Shoot him. Shoot him. Shoot him. Shoot him.


Are you feeling burnt out from the dating apps? Look, I get it. And I'm going to suggest something in a few minutes because I can observe that many human beings, whether you're in your 20s, 30s, 40s, 50s and 60s and even 70s, are feeling rather frustrated with the dating apps, mainly. And like we can go through the litany of things that are, you know, that we might have issue with it. But I want to share something with you that hopefully will shift this narrative for you and maybe trying what I'm about to suggest in a moment could make a big difference for you. So I want to read to you a post I did on Instagram yesterday. And it says, in full transparency, I'm burnt out by the dating process in general. I wish I could bypass it, go straight into a relationship or better yet, go straight into falling in love. Why is it called dating when just meeting someone for the first time feels daunting? From swiping to boring text conversations to no attraction when you meet in person. It's only really even dating if you see someone multiple times. Given that these days most likely 70% of all new relationships happen through some sort of online connection, why do humans curate such poor effort when using this medium? Why are dating profiles created with such apathy? If falling in love is the end goal and a real true desire within a person, wouldn't it make sense to make fantastic effort right from the get go? In truth, I feel like a cynic. And yet I hold space that there's at least one extraordinary woman out there for me who sees my profile and says, wow, I wanna meet this person and better yet, I better bring my A game. I better bring my A game. And by the way, the meme that goes with this post says, if you're looking for a needle in a haystack, try becoming an electromagnet, okay? So I wanna dive into the frustration many of us are feeling with the online dating world. And I've been wondering, this is gonna sound like a radical thought. So just bear with me for a moment. But I wonder if the dating apps were designed to punish the human psyche, to punish the human psyche. Maybe it reveals a deeper, so okay, so let me tell you why. First off, it's kind of interesting. I think statistics say that women are only swiping right on about 5% of the male population, something like that, 4.6% or something. So basically all the best men are getting all the action. They're getting 90% of the women out there if they choose to want to be with them. And the balance of men are not getting any action, so to speak. And I don't mean action in the physical sense of sex. I just mean any opportunities. What's interesting, they claim that roughly men swipe right 60% of the time. But then again, I think men's desire for sex oftentimes makes them swipe or their desire to feel some level of connection with another person. In other words, the dopamine hit that happens when we match up with someone. So I don't feel like that's truly genuine in that sense. Men just happen to swipe on 60% of the women. I don't think they're being very discerning when they do that. But the problem with, now, and here's the thing, someone once asked me, which is the best dating app? And I say they're all the dating apps are the best. The problem is people. See, I look at dating profiles of women and men and they're so poorly done, it's no wonder that they're not attracting somebody that might be of interest in them. In other words, the quality of the photographs, the effort they make when there is an actual matchup with someone is rather poor. And here's the funny thing. Everybody thinks they're the exception. Every woman I speak to when I review their dating profile seems to think that that photograph that they chose, which is out of focus, a picture of the sushi plate they put right next to their face and somehow that's going to attract someone. So I think the challenge with dating apps is the amount, the apathy and the effort people are putting into it. But really we have to get into the deeper issue that's going on here. And I said a moment ago, maybe dating apps were designed to punish the human psyche. Maybe the process of dating the, and when I say dating, let's just forget the word dating. How about just meeting somebody to go out on a date? Just actually meeting someone that might be of genuine interest. That seems daunting certainly for those of us in our 40s, 50s, 60s and even 70s. It's just getting a date seems like a challenge. And the amount of effort somebody puts into the interaction feels like a challenge. And I wonder if maybe this is all because we are in a new evolution of human behavior, human psyche. I think the whole process of dating triggers the number one emotional health issue faced with most everybody and that is, I'm not good enough, I'm not lovable and I'm not likable. I truly believe that the pain many human beings are suffering on the inside in the sense of feeling rather alone to some degree causes that feeling of being, let me reframe the word alone. Let's reframe that to being by yourself. I think we here in the United States don't live in environments where we're surrounded by people who love us and many of us are living lives that are rather lonely by ourselves, unfulfilled because we as human beings need connection with other people. And since we no longer live in this kind of tribe environment where we're surrounded by people who genuinely care for us day in, day out, not to suggest many of you don't have good friends in your life, but I mean day in, day out love because you're hanging out with people who care about you. I know my 20s that happen frequently, certainly in my late teens and early 20s, I was surrounded by my friends, but eventually like many people, I followed the program and go to college, get a job, meet a girl, get married, buy a house, start a family. Whether you're a man or a woman, we work rather program that way. And for many of us in midlife we're divorced and we find ourselves by ourselves, whether you're a man or a woman. And I think the minute we put ourselves out in the dating apps, which is this great opportunity to connect with people, and yet humans are so rather hurting that it's just they're bouncing off of the dysfunction that's going on right here, going on in this world if we live in. So what's gonna change all this? Well, I'm gonna invite everyone to start being optimistic about finding love, about being optimistic, not to the point of Pollyanna optimistic, but really being optimistic from a place that you can actually attract a really special human being in your life. I want you to have this vision of really holding space for someone really special that you can get along with, that you can meet each other's needs, that you balance out your strengths and your weaknesses, where you match up in your lifestyles and values and emotional maturity. I invite you to hold that vision that that exists for you from a truly optimistic place. And then I'm gonna invite you to say the following going forward, whether you're a man or woman, I want you to say the following. The right person will find me organically, the right person will find me organically, the right person will find me organically, the right person will find me organically. I want you to hold such a vision that the right person will meet you in some sort of fashion. Let's add to that organically or online, let's just change it, it doesn't matter. The right person will find me, the right person will find me, the right person will find me. I want you to hold that vision, that space. And if you can do that for just 28 days to hold that space, that right person will find me. And if you can hold that optimistic vision, I think we have a greater chance for success because I'm, as I said in the post I read to you, I'm feeling like a cynic. It's funny, I often watch content from John Gottman or the Gottman Institute and Esther Perrell. And so many relationship coaches or relationship therapists and coaches out there, but you know what? And some of them talk about dating, but they really don't get into the meeting process. Not one of them, like I love the Gottmans, but not one of them has any effing clue what it's like for those of us in midlife to try to even meet someone to go out on a date. And the challenges we're faced with. And I'm not discounting them whatsoever, but many of you who follow me and I'm in the same boat with you, so I get it. To really unravel the emotional effects of this process. And the daunting part of the process is that we are, as I said, I've said this in videos, we're swimming in a sea of dysfunctionality.  Read my book called, What the Heck Is Self-Love Anyway? A Journey of Personal Development, Self-Help in Spiritual Work. I'm such a proponent of doing the inner work to create that life within oneself, to create the skills needed to actually lean into a healthy, happy relationship. My book doesn't cover that, but I'm just saying it's a gateway to feeling more in that optimistic space. And that's what I want you to try going forward. I originally said, the right man will find me or the right person will find me organically, the right person will find me virtually. Well, I'm just simply want to shift that to the right person will find me. And I want you to hold that vision for the next 28 days and see if maybe something interesting comes from it. Is this sinking in? Is this resonating? Please let me know if it is. Post a comment below. I'd like to hear your thoughts on this. As always, if you find value in my videos, please hit that like button. Please share this video. Please subscribe to my channel and hit that notification bell so you can be notified of new videos. Also, if you want to connect with me, there's links below the schedule discovery call with me. See if working with a coach is right for you. Hey, listen, I'm live today. So because I'm live, it's time for Q and A. If you have a question of me, let's talk about this, write the word question, then post the question there after. Or you can purchase a super sticker super chat because a little dollar sign in the chat box. All the monies from the super sticker super chat goes to a scholarship fund in the name of my son, Connor Asley. That's a picture of him right there with me and his brother. It's my son who passed away over five years ago and his honor we donate to causes like the Hoffman Process Insight Institute and scholarships and coaching. So let's have some fun today. I'm gonna be chatting for the next 20 minutes. All right, let's see. Brown Canida says chronic narcissist personality disorder due to lack of community. You know, I do believe that genuine narcissist what I know of it, and this is not a fact, stems from deep trauma in childhood that causes a person to create a world within their world, if you will, that blocks out that compassion, that empathy, that regard for other human beings. And I suspect maybe that is a result of not being raised in a community by being raised with some really challenging parents. I was watching the movie last night called Split, M Night Shemalong. I never pronounce his right name properly with James McAvoy and has 24 different personalities. And I mean, distinct personalities.  And while most of us didn't have that form of abuse, even garden variety, general, you know, parenting can cause deep emotional harm to a child that translates into adult behavior that is rather dysfunctional. You know, I don't think my mom intentionally meant to hurt me emotionally speaking, but I am still cleaning up a lot of, or I'm peeling the layer of a lot of stuff that relates to my mother, my father, their belief systems. I mean, and then we can get into ancestral trauma.  This is why I'm such a big proponent of doing the inner work. Okay, Gigi's in the house. If you're in your 20s and 30s, we partner with someone to have a family, then why can't we partner with someone to have a retirement in our 60s? Maybe happy, healthy relationship is a pipe dream. Well, the difference between our 20s and 30s, Gigi, is in your 20s and 30s, you're a blank sheet of paper and you have an end goal. Retirement is a whole different ball game and it requires a lot more moving parts to fit together. This is one of the challenges. This happens to do geography, geographically speaking. Are there like, for example, I look at women's dating profiles and they're skiing, they're mountain biking, they're repelling off of mountains and such like that. And I'm like, that's not who might, that's not me. I'm not that athletic. I'm kind of a Netflix and hang out and explore the inner world kind of guy. And some people have different lifestyles. So that's where there's a greater challenge for those of us. And then you might have grandchildren. You might be babysitting grandchildren. You might have health issues where you need to be taken to the doctor. And there's a lot more stuff going on for the 60 year olds that the 20 and 30 year olds aren't even dealing with. And then all of our emotional baggage surface right around at age 40. Do you know why it's called midlife crisis? Because right around age 40, all of our emotional baggage that went unhealed in childhood or in our early phase of adulthood begins to surface. Is it a pipe dream? No, there are plent. Listen, I spent time with a group of men last weekend of which all of them, most of them, excuse me, all but one was over 50. Six of them married, five of them met their partners online. Five of them met them online, okay? Actually one of them wasn't married but he met his partner online. So, and by the way, all good men, it exists. We have to be more optimistic. The right person will find you, Gigi. The right person will find you. Betty says, Jonathan loved your Facebook today with live with gratitude. Well, that post, I'm gonna read that to everyone. That was today's post, the one I spoke of yesterday. Let me read it to everybody. The post says the following.  Honestly, I feel so blessed to have a friend like him in my life. Lately I've been exploring whether or not I'm a cynic or just feeling down about the dating process and trying to find my way back to optimism. It's a double-edged sword for me as both a single person and a dating coach witnessing so many people confuse unhealthy attachment with love, including myself. As we discussed my emotional state, he reminded me that self-love requires gratitude. The state of gratitude is a powerful force in every facet of life, especially when dating and eventually being in a relationship. Tapping into gratitude is the pathway to abundance in life, which is why I'm going to make this my primary focus, even when pointing out the inevitable challenges of dating, mating, relating. Who is here with me? Yes. I jokingly say it's a clusterfuck out there. I appreciate that some of you don't mind my expletives. I get it. I'd rather be aware of the potholes than not. I'd rather be aware of them and then I can choose whether or not I'm gonna fall into the pothole and that is despair, frustration, upset, anger, disappointment.  I invite you all to shift that inner dialogue right now, right this moment. Are you willing to do that? Please hit that like button this moment if you're willing to shift that inner narrative right now. Okay. Stephanie says you got to love yourself and your own company. It's easy as an introvert to love being by myself. I think there's a real, you know what, actually I, for the most part, I enjoy my own company.  I'm not having to, listen, there's these, especially for men, there's grand expectation that, you know, we're the leaders of the relationship and we have to drive the bus. You know, sometimes I don't want to drive the bus. Sometimes I do, sometimes I don't. I certainly don't like driving the bus when she doesn't like where it's going. You know, women and men can be sometimes problematic to please, okay? This is why having deeper conversations early on might create greater opportunity for connection. Recently in a video, I said, I did a video, can a man fall in love? Can a man over 40 fall in love? And I invite you all to ask these questions of men and women. Do you want to build a life with somebody? What does that look like? Like coming back to Gigi's question is do you want to build a life with somebody and what does that look like? Find out how they want to curate their life day in, day out, pull out a calendar and say, if we're dating, this is what I want it to look like. Do you want to take care of someone? It's a really big question, especially for those of us in our 40s, 50s, 60s, and even 70s. And how does that look? And then lastly, what makes you think you're ready for commitment? These are great questions to ask someone in the, by the way, I'd say ask these questions before even going on a first date with someone. That's my opinion anyway. But Jonathan, but Jonathan, every dating goat says you do not interview someone. I say interrogate people, I say it tongue in cheek, but find out as much as you can before you invest time in someone where you're misaligned with one another. That's just my opinion anyway. Jody writes, in the middle of your book, love it. I had a date the end of this month with a man I met online. I'm 61, he's 69. He's widowed for three years, we've been talking. He seems like a really nice taking a risk. Yay for Jody, she's taking a risk. Big hugs to you. KK writes, question, what do you people do? What did people do before internet dating? Perhaps to go back to that mindset. Yeah, I think certainly. Okay, I don't know if you were like me. When I was in my 20s, every Friday, Saturday night, go out to bars, pick up chicks. Go out to bars, pick up chicks. Go out to bars, pick up chicks. Meet dancing. An alcohol can make someone make poor judgment, mostly women. I mean, for us men, it was a woman makes poor judgment and the other way around. Yeah, that's the old fashioned way, at least in the 80s and 90s before internet. But the mindset was go out and meet people. Just heart, and then let's own the fact that it's harder as we age. All right, beach lover just wrote, the benefit of living alone is that you get to decide everything for yourself. There's no compromise. Pleasing others is what brought me here. Time to focus on what I want, or at least make agreements with one another to do things like actually say, I wanna do it the other person. What care, you know, part of love is saying, you know what, I may not wanna do this, but I wanna do it because they wanna do it. And both operating from a place of being givers, not takers. Jody, and he asked, where do I want to live if we wanna connect? Love that he asked that. Okay, this is going back to your previous question. Okay, thank you. Robin is in the house. Jonathan, question. Jonathan, in a long distance relationship, is it a red flag? If my fiance wants me to move away from my son, family and sons, by the way, their father has passed away. Well, I don't like the way you frame that. If he wants you to move with him, that's a fair request, okay? That's not moving away from your family and sons, that's moving towards him. The two of you entered into a long distance dating dynamic, that was the red flag, the fact that he wants to move in, and that's a green flag because he wants to build a life with you. Now you have to face the real question is, do you wanna build a life with him outside of your family? But you made the choice to get into the long distance, so don't make it out like he wants me to move away and that's a red flag, the red flag, that's a green flag, in my opinion, if I understand the question correctly. Hey, I wanna thank Rosa for the $5 super sticker. Hey, we'd love to get some love, our goal is $50 today. So thank you so much. Sarah's in a house. If you want to do it because that's the right thing to do, then do it. This is going back to I'm assuming Robin's question about moving, that's how you should view it. By the way, Pixie says those are really good questions, I wanna go back to those questions if a man or woman can love. Do you wanna build a life with somebody? If you do, what does that look like? Do you wanna take care of somebody? How does that look for you? And what makes you think you're ready for commitment? I love the question, what makes you think you're ready for commitment? I realized in my last most significant relationship, I'm ready to take care of somebody. When you know you're ready to take, not just generally anybody, but when you know you're in that space, you wanna take care of someone, that's a great sign you're ready for commitment. But Jonathan, I don't wanna be a nurse or a purse, or Jonathan, I don't want to be, I don't want a sugar baby, I get it. For some of you, that may not be a fit, but you ultimately, what's the point of meeting? What's the point of dating? What's the point of relationship? If you don't have an end goal, recognizing that we're all gonna get old someday and taking care of someone is part of the process. That's a big question. If you're not ready to take care of somebody, then you're not ready for full-blown commitment. You're just ready for companionship, connection, and sense. That's my opinion anyway. Hey, Willem, just gave us a $10 super sticker. Thank you so much. That means we're $35 away from our goal of $50. All right, what else do we have here? Bump, bump, bump, bump, bump, bump, bump. Come on, give me some stuff to talk about. I need some questions in the chat box. Otherwise, we're gonna be wrapping up rather early. Rebel says, desiring a healthy way to share yourself, caring for someone, and expecting in return. Yeah, to the extent expecting it return or healthy reciprocity. I believe a lot of people don't recognize the importance of healthy reciprocity. Being reciprocal, reciprocal with one another. See, to me, healthy love is really being, it's when two givers get together. And sadly that we have so many wounded people out there that makes it difficult for them to give. This is why discernment is so critically important in the dating, mating, and relating process. And by the way, there's a link right here. That's what I teach, is discernment, okay? Hey, I wanna thank Beach Lover for the $10 Super Sticker, thank you so much.  It went really well. I gotta tell you, I had a lot of fun. There was, I think, 22 people. There was like five guys, the rest women. I think everyone found value in the presentation I gave. There was some mingling going on. I thought it was fun. And I believe everyone felt the same way. Linda says, hi, Jonathan, this is Linda from your previous Hot Seat episode. I couldn't deal with that guy, especially since he kept saying okey-dokey all the time. He was nerdy. Hey, are you willing to get on the Hot Seat right now and share that, talk about it right now? I'm gonna put a link right here if you wanna join the Hot Seat. So, what Linda's talking about is she did meet a guy, it was someone I met out in real life where she was on a second date with someone and then she got on the Hot Seat with everybody. We just posted that video yesterday in my playlist, my uploaded playlist versus my live playlist. And she said that she didn't feel a spark with them should she date him. She's now given us an update to say, okay, and she said, I couldn't deal with that guy, especially since he kept saying okey-dokey all the time. He was just so nerdy. You know, I'm sad to hear that. You know, we can pick apart any human being and find flaws with them. It's kind of the nature of the dysfunctionality we're dealing with. Genuine love is about appreciating someone appreciating someone even in the things we don't like in another human being. That's genuine love.  I just felt like he was a really good man. And I think when you have a good man, those are people you should give chance to, but I get it. Look it, if you didn't have a spark, if it was a turn off.  I'm just suggesting maybe try a nice guy that may be a little bit nerdy. Okay, that's my invitation for you. All right, hey, listen, this was a quick live stream. I wanted to get everyone on. Did you, hey, listen, if there's something you'd like to share about what I talked about, post a comment below. I'd like to hear all your thoughts. As always, if you find value in my videos, please hit that like button. Please share this video. Please subscribe to my channel and hit the notification bell so you can be notified of new videos. And always, if you wanna connect with me directly, check out the links below to schedule a discovery call with me to find me on Instagram, all that good stuff and wanna get props to Sharon right here. I wanna thank you for calming my insecurities about my boyfriend. Just keep being real. I'll do my best and keep being real. All right.  If you're a natural caregiver with everyone, how do you figure out if you should move forward with someone who only has a few things they're dealing with? I don't wanna waste my time. You know, if I met the love of my life today and she only had a year to live, I'd probably do it. I mean, that's just me. I think I would probably do it. But that would require her being the love of my life. I guess, that's how I feel. I guess I would do it. But you have to decide for yourself what matters most for you. All right, folks, I'm gonna wrap up this video. Oh, by the way, Linda says, I like men who are masculine. Folks, I don't consider myself masculine. I don't consider myself feminine.  I don't like the whole defining people into categories like that. But that's just me, Linda. All right, I'm gonna wrap up this video as I always do.  I'm gonna reach into the camera and give you a hug of love if that's okay. I'm gonna ask you to turn to someone. That, a teddy bear pillow and give Iter them a hug of love because hugs are a great source of love. And let's face it, we could all use more love in our lives. I wanna thank everyone who donated today. I wanna thank Linda, beach lover, Rebel, Sharon, Wilma, Rosa, everyone. Thank you so much for the love. Have a wonderful, fantastic.


No expected return is free from uncertainty. This means that there is a level of certain riskiness associated with that particular expected rate of return. Now this riskiness is also associated with the liquidation of that particular investment. But at more importantly, the risk is computed for the expected return. So to determine the riskiness of an expected return of a particular investment, the investor needs to know the tools that can be used in order to measure the riskiness of a particular rate of return that an investor is expected to earn in the future on the intended investment. How to define the term risk? Risk is basically the dispersion of possible returns. This means that any deviation in the expected return is termed as the risk. For a financial analyst, this riskiness is required to be quantified in terms of number so that its level of toughness can be determined. There are certain statistical measures that allow an investor to compare return and riskiness of an investment with reference to the other alternative investments for the particular investor. There are certain measures that can be used to proxy the riskiness of a particular investment. These measures include variance, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation. This means a measurement of spread found between numbers in a dataset. If the variance is larger, this means there is more dispersion and the greater uncertainty which another means that the investment is more riskier in terms of its expected returns. To determine the variance, we basically scare the probability value of the expected returns. For example, we have certain data whose variance is 0.0141. If we convert this figure into percentage, we can see that the variance in this particular case is 1.41% or roughly it is closer to 1.5%. So the variance is much lesser so we can say that the riskiness of this particular investment is much lower. So investment is relatively safer as to its expected returns. There is a point to note that for risk-free investments, the variance is generally 0 because the expected rate of return on such risk-free investment is generally certain. For certainty, the probability value is 100. So this means the return would also be 100%. Then this 100% surety of the expected return means that there is no riskiness. So the variance on these investments is generally the 0. The second measure to compute riskiness of investment is the standard deviation. This is also the measure of volatility or the riskiness of an investment in terms of its expected return. Standard deviation is a quantity that expresses by how much the expected return of an investment can be deviated from its average return. Now to determine the standard deviation of a particular expected return on an investment, we just compute the scale root of the variance of that expected return on the investment. And if we carry the previous example, the scale root of our variance which was 0.0141, the scale root of this figure is 11.87%. Using this standalone figure, let's assume that the investment is relatively less risky. But if we have another investment alternative, then we would be using this standard deviation with this standard deviation of expected returns on that investment. And the investment with lower standard deviation would be termed as the safer investment. The conclusion on this standard deviation discussion says that higher the value of standard deviation, higher the volatility of returns of a given investor on a given investment, which means that investment is relatively riskier one. The third measure to compute riskiness is the coefficient of variation. It is basically a relative measure of riskiness because it compares alternative investment with widely different rate of return and their standard deviation. This coefficient of variation measures risk per unit of expected return and to determine the coefficient of variation, we just divide the standard deviation of returns over the expected return. We have our example that we continue here on the screen. You can see that we have standard deviation of 0.11874 and expected return of 0.07. The coefficient of variation comes to 1.696. This means that to determine one unit of expected return, we have to bear 1.69 unit of standard deviation or riskiness. So the riskiness of this investment is higher than the expected return. This means that investment is highly riskier. We have another example as you can see on the bottom part of the screen where we have two alternatives investment A and investment B. The expected return on investment A is 7% and on B it's 12%. The standard deviation on investment A is 5% and on B is 7% apparently. The B has higher standard deviation so the B is looking higher riskier than the investment A but if we compute coefficient of variation for both of the investments, we can see that for the investment A, the coefficient of variation is 0.71 and for investment B, this coefficient of variation is 0.58 as we have seen that higher coefficient of variation means higher riskiness. Now using this criteria, we can say that investment B is lesser riskier than investment A as the per unit riskiness of investment B is lesser than the per unit riskiness of investment A because investment B is yielding lesser riskiness which is as low as half unit of the risk against one unit of the return earned by the investment B. So we can conclude that investment B is relatively lesser riskier than the investment A. How to measure risk for the historical returns? As we have just seen the measurement of risk for the expected returns. In fact, same riskiness measures like coefficient of variation, standard deviation and variance can be used to measure the riskiness of some past returns or historical returns. For that purpose, again we can use the variance which is standard deviation basically and it is the scale root of the variance of the probability values of the historical returns. This measure indicates that how much individual holding period yields over the time deviated from the series expected value of time t. This means there to determine the riskiness of historical returns we compute its standard deviation, the standard deviation of holding period yield and then we compare the standard deviation of holding period yields against the expected return and the deviation computed through the measure of coefficient of variation, measure of standard deviation and measure of variance. That measure tells how riskier was the particular investment in the past.


This study examined the effects of epidemic-related lockdown measures on the health of women and children in low and lower middle-income countries. It found that these measures can lead to decreases in immunization rates and maternal and perinatal services, resulting in higher mortality rates among infants and mothers. Additionally, the mental health of both children and women has been shown to suffer due to the stress caused by lockdowns. These findings suggest that governments must carefully consider the potential negative consequences of implementing such measures and develop strategies to mitigate them.


Good evening to you, I am Justin Acadone and this is the news now on Plus TV Africa. After a delayed plenary, the Senate has asked the central bank of Nigeria, Sibian, to considerably adjust its recently announced cash withdrawal limits in response to the public outcry against the new policy. The Yapo Chamber in its resolution also asks its committee on banking and finance to embark on aggressive oversight of the apex bank as it implements the policy and give periodic reports to the Senate. Now the Senate's resolution was reached after an exhaustive debate by the lawmakers who attended plenary. Now some lawmakers argued that there was no threshold set by the Sibian is unrealistic considering the economic situation in the country. They voted the Sibian for not holding wide consultations on the policy before its announcement while some legislators argued that the policy will put point of sale operators out of business. In addition, some lawmakers said the policy will adversely affect Nigerians in the informal sector, the unbanked and those in the rural communities. Central banks should consider their decision and put us back the same amount they had in Abia, Lagos, Kano. They should do 500,000 per day for individuals and they will do 3 million per day for corporates that will cover any fear of anybody. The Sibian approved POS operators and registered them and took monies from them no matter how little. And now those people can only do so little. It took so many people off the roads. It took all our unemployed graduates off the streets. Now they're going to be thrown back with this policy if an amendment is not done. Mr. President, there's a big elephant in the room. Why is this happening during an election period? Why is it that it is coming now? When we have an election, just a little over a month ahead, there is a need to be flexible in what we are doing.