Look at her and all her glory boys our second Season one ended with a Super Bowl ring season two ended at the wild card playoff season three ends with our Second ring and season four is yet to be determined But we're gonna find out soon the question on everyone's mind at the start of a new wheel of mud season is who was the prestige player? And as I unveil this offense, you'll notice that nothing has changed our prestige player is not on offense Now that being said we take a look at defense and nothing has changed either This probably isn't a shock to anyone. I did tease this a little bit My prestige player was limited 90 overall Harrison but for the first time ever in wheel of mud history We have a prestige kicker. I'm not gonna lie to you guys This might not have been as fun as the Gronkh prestige But I think this might have been one of the smartest prestige is I have ever made Having Zen kicker for the rest of wheel of mud slower kicking meter for all kicks over 45 yards could be so Unbelievably massive not to mention kickoffs won't be so horrible either I actually think this was super important to do the only other thing I really could have gone with in my head was loop Keekley I like the idea of going loop Keekley lurk artists great middle linebacker But you know what scared me away from that would scare me away from that is this dude right here Magaman himself Donald Trump's long-lost child Nick Bosa still has a core elite was this I mean Wasn't this the defensive player of the year last year am I missing something? Why is the defensive player of the year doing a whole lot of nothing? I mean granted that Niners defense is so stacked and they're playing great So it doesn't really matter, but why are you not getting a new car? Basically, I'm scared because I whiffed on Nick Bosa I didn't want to pick up another defensive player like Luke Keekley and whiff on him too because is Luke Keekley really gonna get another Card, I don't know but it doesn't matter if Harrison but Kerr gets another card He's got those abilities and they're amazing next up on the docket is determining our team for this wheel of my season I'll be spinning the teams wheel whatever team and lands on will decide my jerseys my stadium and my head coach But most importantly it will determine my offensive and defensive playbooks. I don't know man I low key want NFC since we've been all AFC So far. Oh my god I've never used Eagles offense or defense But I have to imagine their offense has a lot of QB run option plays or read options because of Jalen Hurts Oh, we are gonna need a fast quarterback this season. You know the last time you guys saw this jersey It was two years ago wheel of mud when gold 74 overall Jalen Hurts was the most broken quarterback in the game and he led me to a Super Bowl It was Jalen Hurts season all that season and the Eagles were supposed to suck. I'm excited to see these playbooks It says Eagles offense vertical and their defense is an attacking for three. All right boys. The team is ready to go We got Nick Siriani. My hope is that Eagles have eye formation. I have a strong feeling they have eye formations They run the ball with the Andre Swift so much in real life because if you remember last season Cincinnati Bengals had no eye formation I could not take advantage of Rob Gronkowski's Vanguard, which is such an awesome ability Hope and I can this year But as you look at this team, we have an infinite amount of holes to fill the entire offensive line the entire backfield Which is horrifying two wide receivers defensively It's every single linebacker almost the entire secondary and almost the entire D line There's one final thing before we start the game when you win the Super Bowl you get these special packs called trophy packs I'm an absolute moron and I opened them because I thought I was on a different account And I'm supposed to get to open those for wheel of mud. It gives you three packs. They're honestly very good I don't have access to them right now. So in its place, I'm gonna open three mystery packs This is my reward for winning the Super Bowl Hopefully it can give us a few players just to kick start this lineup and then we can head into the episode We'll start with a star elite pack. That's amazing. I'm guaranteed. I shouldn't say that. No, I am I'm guaranteed an upgrade Hey, I said I want eye formation. I said I want eye formation.  Second mystery pack is a pro playmaker. This is up. This is a lot of players They're usually just golds, but it's a lot of players Alan Lazard Let's go.  I've got a red tackler right guard a center I got Alan Lizard at wide receiver got DeMarcus where dude. Oh my god. Oh my god Tillman I guess I have a half bag. I think I've used him on double or nothing before Jamon Davis Mike Oh my god, let's go.  By the way, don't open that mystery pack. That is not worth 3500 training you're out of your mind if you think that like I would get those same polls except the mystery pack used to be 300 train Alan Lizard season. It's Matt Brita season Defensively we got Jamon Davis and then at left outside linebacker dude this Marcus wears really nice at left Then we can put AJ Eponessa free safety. So I did pull Antoine Winfield He's 5 9 with 82 speed whereas Pat Tillman is 5 11 with 84 I think we kind of got to go till man up there that as my corners I can take Valentine out from Mike Hilton and I can probably put Antoine Winfield at like CB3 Just another reason why it's so important to actually win the Super Bowl I would be looking at a 71 overall team right now But instead we're 77 obviously none of these guys are gonna make my end game team But they're gonna be super helpful right now. I think I'm most excited about Pat Tillman I would love to get a pack of punch and get the full legend Pat Tillman Hey, let's get it boys a queen slate a zero and zero record and our very first wheel spin of Wheel of Mus season four, you know We actually just did a playmaker pack and we just got an elite in it So I get to open pro playmaker packs until I get one elite once I get an elite player I get to keep the entire pack no wonder wait that makes so much sense I apologize gentlemen the reason the mystery pack is so much more expensive is because these packs are so much better The pro playmaker pack used to be eight gold players and I would actually guarantee is elite players So really what this wheel spin is is one pro playmaker pack since I'm guaranteed an elite here We get to keep everything in this dog But I left tackle the team of the week player tank Oh dude tanked L has an insane card coming out for blitz. Awusukara moa. He'll be a nice He's a past coverage outside linebacker. Yeah, he'll be nice and unstoppable They're really gonna get us out of zavy and how are none of these are my 81 plus elites yet These were all the golds Davion Howard tin Jenkins my offensive line is like done. Definitely need corner help Brian cook Jerry a sneed we're gonna start here. Okay, so my new corner one is gonna be 84 prime time go the Jerry a sneed at corner To I could either go zavy and Howard unstoppable 6183 speed or Brian cook 6183 speed then we're gonna go zavy and how about Brian cooking and then Tillman will actually be my Tillman could low-key be like my user slash my just my backup strong. This is perfect though Cuz right now with no middle linebackers. I have to use her Darwin Jane. I'm gonna make a woosukara moa my middle linebacker I'm so sorry guys.   All right y'all second wheel spin I don't have a quarterback So anything that can give me an option here would be really really really Ooh, why rock money man cell I need a fast quarterback.   There's another two AP. All right boys third and final wheelspin Bro, so far this has been textbook script written s plus steer wheel of mutt Can the third wheel spin? Oh my god I'm about to be loaded with aka play a low aka, but a jackpot. I still need help at the wide receiver position I'm gonna go for OBJ. So I don't make them juniors got this 83 overall aka It is technically my second best wide receiver on this team though So not bad, but most importantly if I can score a touchdown with that 83 overall OBJ I'll get this 90 overall OBJ. This is a nasty wide receiver card. They gave him really good stats 94 jump His spec catches 93. He's got great route runs. He's really fast. This is a really good wide receiver We'd love to add him with jamar chase. I mean have two good wide receivers just looking for the third But I got a score with so Alan Lazard's gonna come out for OBJ I definitely want to keep tank del on this lineup in case I have a wheel spin onto a pack of punch There are also pack of punch wheel spins on the rage quit wheel So if I can get a rage quit get a pack of punch, I could take tank del up to his I think he has a 90 overall blitz card regardless. Let's get our abilities on so on offense double me jamar chase Vanguard Rob Gronkowski escape artist gift-wrapped gunslinger on johnny football and that is all of offense Defensively the only player who can even garner an ability is derby james. That's only two AP right now So I'm gonna load derby up like crazy until we get some other players. I'm also gonna give him pick artists I guess I'll give him homer Like I'm literally just clicking buttons because we have free AP on defense, but I'm cool with it Final thing before our season opener here Is the challenge wheel challenge wheel get me one of any pack in the store or It's such a tough challenge just because of my team right now a defensive touchdown Headed into our clean slate regular season.  I'm so scared of that air numb. Okay. Now the question is defensively. What do the eagles have? What is three two mugs? You're not necessarily. Oh, wow. I whipped them. He's got the season four or is it mad season three? He's got the season three berry sanders gotta pass here Throws low on the left side makes a nice juke play action. Oh, no, it's definitely a run.  I'm not on derwin. Tell me why I'm liking this defense so much Ah, no defensive touchdown, but that's a huge stop. All right. Let's see what eagles offense has is obj open Normally, I'd say yes. It was actually open with anything over the middle. I don't know. I missed all of them second and 17 This leaves jamar pretty open who makes a really difficult catch I got a scape artist.  Johnny football. I've never used the scape artist before right now Mabrita, Mabrita Oh my god, tell me why I'm getting 11 yards per play against this team get it into x obj get in the end zone obj I need you in the end zone.   I'm just gonna walk this in mabrita hopefully Geez the odds that I get a turnover again. I don't think I'm very high I think he made a fluke and I don't think he'll fluke again. I'm going on true 4 3 here Kara mo is the user berry's going absolutely nowhere nick posted tfl I'm just a I am I'm kind of a liability downfield. I gotta bring tillman down for the run. That's a run I gotta make that 10. I'm a hop on prime to try and add numbers here Hey Good catch. We're honestly close to that very close to that. We gotta switch.  Did we did we stuff the browns? Are they gonna go for this?  I'm going back to this stretch alert bubble. I don't think he's on this He's not oh good block great block great joke one more I have an angle route out of burrito Okay, he's not gonna cover the middle gonna go right to gronk here That was not the right throw the right throw there was jamar But I'm gonna get that yards out of that how much times a spike gonna take eight seconds one time out This is gonna be the easiest read of my life either jamar chases open for a touchdown or I am throwing the ball away second 10 Oh my god. Oh my god In the season opener ball a half. I can't believe we threw his ass over We have momentum going into half and we get the ball I would gladly settle for a field goal.  Fuck. These are so good Please catch it. Yes Zack codes. It's so there if he bites on the running back. He bites. I gotta go Okay, serious clock burnt right there.  I love you breda This is dude. I'm not gonna lie though. This is exactly why the gronk prestige Was a good prestige because it didn't matter if we used him as a fullback or not He was already a good tight end almost. Whoa. Whoa. Whoa. I did not mean to keep that ball I didn't even know that was a read option third name.  I'm up by 10.  No, okay The dig's not there.  He almost he would fall. I mean, he's kind of He didn't have clock. Okay. I slipped screen Derwin's over there big hit Derwin's got unstoppable enforcer It cannot be turned off enforcer crusher for the rest of the game huge Get there Good heads Tillman's need and Brian could all combine to drag that out of the sky second to 10 I think I need a sense of heat. I haven't said he a while He goes play action. He doesn't have that Derwin James defensive touchdown How do I make this? Very same as flagging my house down. Damn it. He would stop Pyrrhus conceded the game. That's all she wrote I said offense was gonna carry us defensive Masterclass this is a perfect example of how wheel of mutt rules can get really weird though So I won the game. I get to keep my players. That's easy enough my challenge wheel I was robbed of the ability to complete the challenge wheel don't know that I would have done it But he quit also I was robbed of my ability to upgrade odell beckham jr Instead of spinning the rage quit wheel. I'm gonna upgrade obj Basically trading in my rage quit wheel spin for my obj upgrade And I'm gonna open one pack from the store for my challenge wheel So no rage quit wheel spin, but we get obj and I'm gonna take one pack here. This is such a unique scenario I don't know if we'll ever run into this again But actually, you know what to make it most fair the one pack that I'll take is a mystery pack So if it's a gold plus player, then that's karma for me scheming the system here our mystery pack is All right, you know max fantasy packs are kind of me I think this is truly fair max fantasy pack germane johnson daniel scott You don't help us. You don't help us. You don't help us. Okay. So first round. No bueno second round's gotten a lead in it Mitch, you don't help us either. We do have a center admins. You don't help us Rashaun slater is an upgrade. Jelani. Tyvi is an upgrade.   I wonder if germane johnson is a better option here Yeah, my current detack was 49 speed, bro Even if you like got past your blocker, you're not gonna sack anybody put your main johnson in there lbj 90 overall odell beckham jr 200 000 coins, you know, I can put double me on obj You know what? I got to do it. I got to put this on obj his double me x-factor And I got to take vanguard off of gromp because without i formation. I can't use it So the double me aka wins aggressive catches versus single coverage amazing opener episode. I love you guys Thanks for watching as always.


Good day, fellow investors. I firmly believe that investing is, of course, first about research, knowing all the accounting, all that's going on, following and everything, but everybody can get to that. You have data, you have everything, everything is public today on the internet. The key then comes to the mindset and Benjamin Graham said that the biggest enemy of each investor is himself. So it's crucial to develop a correct investing mindset so that you can take advantage of what's going on, increase your long-term returns and today I will share with you 10 mindset tools that you can use that give you an advantage over Wall Street. Wall Street is, like the majority of people, very short-term oriented and therefore if you have a long-term orientation, a business orientation, if you're calm, if you're ready to buy into panic and sell into exuberance, you might do very, very well for you and eliminate all the fuss, all the hysteria, all the rationality that Wall Street is always offering. You just need to turn on the news and it will be always short-term panic and always about something new. We have the trade wars now. We had the Fed interest rates a year ago, always something who talks about North Korea anymore but two years ago it shaked the markets. So just follow these 10 principles and of course the channel if you like them. So please subscribe if you like this mindset style investing and then you will do well over time. Let's start. Number one, focus on the absolute business return. So when you buy, let's say you buy a house to let it out and then you say okay I pay 100,000, the yearly rent is 6,000, my business return is after costs and everything, 6%. And then you see okay if I'm happy with that business return, okay that's it. You're happy with what the business delivers and the same should be applied to stock market investing. You're buying businesses not stocks.  What you have to buy always is the business and then if it explodes free bagger, four bagger that should be inserted into the price for free. If you focus on buying businesses as an owner then you have a great advantage on Wall Street. If you look at Wall Street and their analysis they are always comparing to other companies so they are not absolute investments. They are relative investors because they compare to everything else and then they always give an outlook two quarters ahead. What will happen? This will hit their earnings in the next two quarters. Who cares? You have to care where will their earnings be in the next 10 years and then put that into an absolute personal perspective. Number two, think like an owner. So I buy businesses, hold the business, I feel like I own the business. A few days ago we discussed gas prom, okay I feel like I'm not owning the stock. I own the pipeline, the power of Siberia that goes directly into China where they'll start pumping gas in December. That's what I own. However it's boring to own a pipeline. Nothing happens, perhaps a fire here and there hopefully not. But you just own businesses, you accumulate them over the long term like Buffett did. He accumulated the American Express Geico and he just holds that let's it compound over the long term. Grow, grow, grow and that's it. There is no excitement and I know that I would have my current business short-term would be 10 times bigger if I would talk about Tesla, if I would talk about trading short-term gains, neostocks, even on the stocks I cover if I would say oh gas prom will go up another 20% in the next three months I think I would be at 200,000 subscribers. But I'm an owner and I know that long-term ownership beats stock market trading and that's a proven thing. Number three so much used, even over views but there is a difference between saying it and feeling it. Be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when others are greedy. Tesla stock I have seen the greed over the last two years, three years everybody was oh yes it will revolutionize everything ever. And now I see that greed turning into panic and you have seen what has happened to the stock. Now it's a much better investment I'm not saying it's good or anything I'm not covering it but it's a much better investment now that people that it is much lower than it was six, seven months ago when it was closer to 400 from an investing perspective. However trading it's always excited something happens and unfortunately few do what has to be done which is you buy Tesla now if you're an investor not six months ago when it was at 400 with a huge market capitalization which leads to the following number and that is hyperbolic discounting. Hyperbolic discounting is a behavior finance concept where people prefer small and soon rather than bigger and later. As people as normal human nature is you want something now and you want it immediately everybody your mind is then happy. It's very hard to postpone to delay gratification even if the gratification in the future will be much much bigger than what you get now which might be very very small. So most people sold gets from after it went up 20-25% later the company went even higher so you miss on a lot if you focus on the short term if you focus on the long term there is where the five ten baggers the Peter Lynch investments develop and this is something you have to take advantage because you see okay Wall Street focuses on the year two years max if you start focusing on the 10 years what will the world look like in 10 years then and forget about the short term volatility rationality then you really have an advantage over Wall Street and that's the key hyperbolic discounting also discussed in Seth Clariman's book the margin of safety and I really so few thinking about how the world will look like in three five ten years everybody's focused on what will the next trade tariff increase do instead of focusing what will the world look like in ten years when you focus on that everything becomes much easier and you have a great advantage because ten years will pass like this consequently anything can happen in the stock market but it's much easier if you focus on risk I love Tesla for example I love the mindset I love the craziness I love the changing the world mentality but as an investor I simply focus on risk I know the company is on shaky financial legs can go bankrupt if they don't hit their targets if the capital markets say I'm not going to give them you give you any more money they can burn their cash very quickly consumer cars it's based on consumer preferences which can change very fast we have seen Teslas around already for six years now so people might want to take something new which might hit the company so when you focus on risk first focus okay what's the worst that can happen and can I take it it's again something that makes investing much much easier you miss on a lot of companies that shoot up but when you compare it from a risk reward perspective then you see okay I missed that but I knew why I missed that and that makes your investing focused on low risk high return investment so you try okay there is a margin of safety there is a limit to what you can lose and that makes investing again easier over the long term and you have again an advantage because you know what is risk and reward what does it mean risk risk doesn't mean the stock cannot go lower that's absolutely impossible to predict any stock at any point in time can fall 70 percent and it will fall three times in your lifetime each asset class will fall 70 percent in value that you own the question is okay what's the margin of safety margin of safety doesn't mean the stock will not go lower it means that you have a long term value that will eventually bring it back to that level or deliver the returns you are hoping for it can be I don't know an asset a big building that is very valuable land feels a good ore body for a mine or something like that so those are the margins of safety something that will produce value for eternity and that's something you have to focus on the stock price will always be volatile but the value is usually very very stable so that's again something you can take as an advantage over the rest of the market and then something very interesting people prefer linearity you need okay my portfolio hopefully will increase five percent per year and that's again something that will not happen like that everybody knew Gazprom will eventually increase the dividend but the stock slowly was really lingering lingering lingering and then it exploded only when the news actually happened only when things started to happen so in the markets nothing will ever be linear and that's something you really have to keep in mind to avoid focusing on the short term volatility know that things are not linear but as long as the fundamentals develop in a relatively stable way grow grow and build on that then you are okay and then you'll find the stock price explode when the market gets recognizes what's going on another big advantage you can have you can have a percentage of portfolio in cash depending on what's going on in the market 98% of portfolio management's professional portfolio managers have to be 98% of 95% invested at all times because it's their job to be invested in stocks so they have to be invested only Buffett said Claremont can have a cash allocation as large as they wish for to wait for those opportunities and the best thing is to have a strategy okay I am investing when I find an investment that gives me a risk reward return of five percent if you are happy with five percent seven ten fifteen percent which is my threshold so I have said I'll be 80% invested when I can find investments of 50 deliver 50% 90% investment when I can find 20% business returns over the long term 100% when I can find 25 margin investment to 120% when I can find 30 and plus risk reward adjusted investments so for now I'm around 75% still looking but the portfolio is on strong grounds I think and over the long term will deliver me my 15% if some stock falls due to trade wars due to irrationalities I will buy more of that and then when it goes up again when it hits the 15% let's say from a 20 to a 15% return I'll sell it and then balance my portfolio with the cash I have which is something very few investors professional investors can do so to summarize with number 10 really look at what has been going on in the markets over the long term and do the opposite of what most investors and consequently wall street does because wall street caters to long term to most investors and not too long term investors if you just look at jp morgan's chart your investment returns over the last 20 years you can see that asset classes did okay in relation to asset classes we'll discuss reads in the following videos that were the best performing asset class but the average investor made just what less than 2% over the last 20 years because they buy inexuberance they sell in panic and they miss out on the whole market developments so just think okay if my neighbor is doing this how smart he is is he under the influence of crowd of herding of everything and what are the real basis margin of safety risk business return focus on absolute returns absolute business returns and when you build a portfolio on those basis on those strongholds you will do very very well over time we are going to continue to build this channel on those fundamentals on those things that have delivered great returns for the last 100 years as value investment has shown that it beats other investment strategies it's just a factor of mindset and you have to see whether you want to learn want to develop that mindset if you wish to do so please subscribe to this channel i'm looking forward to your comments thank you for watching and i'll see you in the next video


Welcome to Columbia University's Graduate Real Estate Development Conference in 2021. The conference theme is Stop, Go, Pivot. And I'm sure we have all experienced that, its sequence, the rich just ring of the sequence and so on throughout our prior year. Today we're going to start with a fabulous panel about the macro overview. Where are we today? How will the U.S. economy recover? And the presidential election inform the strategy, sector positioning, development trends and investment theses throughout the next cycle. I'm the moderator, Patrice Derrington, I'm the director of the real estate program at Columbia University and the Mark Holliday professor of real estate. I have two panelists. We have Joe Zidle, managing director and chief investment strategist of private wealth solutions group at Blackstone. And we have Dr Richard Barkham, the executive director and global chief economist at CBRE. Welcome gentlemen and thanks for joining us. Well, let's get started with looking at the economy overall. Joe, you and Byron publish every year your 10 surprises for the upcoming year. This year for 2021, which you just recently issued, you say the economy develops momentum on its own because of pent-up demand and depressed hospitality and airlines become strong performers. Fiscal and monetary policy remains historically accommodative. Nominal economic growth for the full year exceeds 6% and the unemployment rate falls to 5%. We begin the largest economic cycle in history, surpassing the cycle that lasted from 2010 to 2020. That is a five-powered economy that may indeed be sparked by some very recent actions such as the stimulus and economic readings such as we're seeing in rising oil prices, etc. Are there some things in particular that you find to have very interesting and significant potential in achieving this surprise? Well, yes, and Patrice, first I'd like to thank you for having me as a part of today's panel discussion. I'm looking forward to a really robust discussion over the course of the next few minutes. So the first point I'd make here on our view, my partner Byron Ween and I published the annual list of 10 surprises on Monday, January 4th. It was the 36th annual edition of the 10 surprises. And what we wanted to reflect at that time with the surprise you mentioned was a more optimistic view or more bullish view of the upcoming recovery. So we wanted to really plant a flag in the ground and be ahead of consensus with respect to our growth estimates, as well as unemployment as well. And we really were of the view and still are of the view that the record stimulus would end up filtering back into the economy and end up creating a self-sustaining recovery or a virtuous cycle. And so what I would highlight here quickly is just that if you look at the damage done economically as a result of COVID, we had about a $2 trillion drop in production here in the United States. And so far, there's been about $5.3 trillion in fiscal stimulus. And there is potentially more coming. Now there's the discussion of an infrastructure bill sometime later in 2021. So this fiscal stimulus that's been passed and is in the process of being dispersed currently is the largest fiscal policy response we've ever seen to a recession since the New Deal era. So so far, we're at about fiscal stimulus of about 23% of GDP and potentially going higher. And that is something that's second only to what we saw in the New Deal, which was about 40% of GDP at the time. Now interestingly, if you look at our policy response relative to other developed countries, we've done more since December than all of Europe and Japan have done combined since the beginning of COVID. So our policy response here has really been historic. For every $1 lost in income, there's been $11 in government transfers and benefits. So what we want to really, the way that we're positioning our views is that this is going to be a highly synchronized start to the recovery. And as a result, we think it will form the foundation for what will be a very long cycle. And by highly synchronized, I mean it's not just households. I think everybody here on the Zoom is aware of households in the United States having record savings, record net worth, record personal income. But when I talk about it being a highly synchronized recovery, it's because it's not just households. If you look at corporations, they raised record amounts of precautionary cash in 2020. And as a result, cash as a percentage of assets at corporations is the highest level it's been since the 1960s. And then thirdly, state and local governments are forecasted to produce their first surpluses since 1978. So normally these three cohorts, households, corporations, and state and local governments would have a more staggered start to a recovery, right? Because you have to rebuild income, then rebuild savings, then pay down debt, et cetera. But in this recovery, it's very highly synchronized in that you've got basically record cash at the household level, record cash at the corporate level, and now surpluses at the state and local government level. So that's going to introduce what I think will be a very strong front-loaded recovery. Now the part on it being self-sustaining, and I'll just finish with this point, is when the economy was relatively closed due to COVID, when we were restricted on movement, you saw a big boom in the purchase of goods. The goods side of the economy is significantly smaller than the services side of the economy. So what we saw through most of 2020, and we're still seeing it today, is a boom in the goods side of the economy. Now when you're spending on goods, generally that money ends up being exported, right? Because perhaps you're buying computers, laptops, iPhones, iPads, washers, dryers, et cetera. That money generally goes to low-cost manufacturers around the world. But as we reopen the services side of the economy, it introduces what I would consider to be more of a virtuous cycle. Because in services, one person's spending is another person's income. So as the economy reopens in the second half, and you've got all this cash, and the idea of the pent-up demand, as it goes into services, it ends up creating a self-sustaining recovery in that we will end up, I think, driving a lot more or recycle the money in ways that we haven't been necessarily up until this point. Excellent. Thank you very much. Very, very exciting. And definitely, we've got some constructive times ahead with all of this capital. And also this notion that the service sector is a very local, local, local economic dynamic, which reminds us, Richard, and it's a wonderful segue for you, real estate is often regarded as being locally constrained or locally beneficial. Now, you've commented that you see record household cash and excess savings in the economy also, and that you see this as a major source of pent-up demand for consumer spending. Just as Joe was saying, and that division between goods and services and so on is going to be critical. What specific areas of the economy do you expect to boost consumption, and particularly maybe the consequences for real estate, given the audience we have today? Well, if I could start with just a few comments on what Joe has said and what you reiterated. I think that is our house view that the US is going to see a very strong rebound in 2021, 7% GDP growth. And indeed, some of that growth will continue into 2022, maybe four or five percent growth. I don't and we're reasonably bullish as well, you know, because you've got the stimulus and you've got consumers with a lot of cash. I don't I would just a note of caution. I don't think we can quite write the virus off yet. And we're watching very closely the new variant of the vaccine of the virus. And that is a lot more infectious than the old the old virus. If you like. So it's now dominant in Europe and it's what's really caused the surge in cases in Europe. And I would be a little bit worried that places like Texas and Mississippi may have opened up a little bit too soon. And I think there's still a you know, you've got the the vaccine rollout, which is proceeding extremely nicely in the states. So it's doing a great job of it, you know, to two and a half million people being vaccinated every day. But I do want to just, you know, draw people's attention to the new variant, which is highly infectious, infectious. And the the rates of new infection have been dropping recently, but seem to have leveled out now. So that's just just an ongoing threat that we've got there. But I think, you know, and then there's the question that Joe raised about whether this initiates another 10 year cycle. I don't think the the the virus was really signalled an end to the old cycle. It's more of an external shock. You know, this this kind of big shock didn't have many of the self-destruct characteristics of an end of cycle. And what that means is some of the imbalances that pre-existed continue. So whether that can sustain another 10 year cycle, I would be a bit cautious on as well. But certainly a good growth here in in 2021 and 2022 fingers crossed on the virus. What does that mean for real estate? Well, I mean, I think, you know, Joe referred to the services economy. And we're already seeing it in the in the states that have opened up, Texas and Mississippi, huge increase in eating out. So, you know, that kind of food and beverage industry really hard hit by covid. That's going to come back really strongly really quickly. People are stir crazy, sitting at home. And of course, that draws, you know, draws footfall into other areas of real estate. So, you know, I would see probably some upside, some surprising upside in physical retail. People have been sitting at home buying goods on the internet. But I do see a revival in physical retail probably led by food and beverage and just a kind of post pandemic surge in wanting to get out and do things. You're also seeing travel increase as well. So, you know, airline travel is going up. One of the areas the hotel, you know, the hotel industry was the kind of domestic leisure that held up quite well. I mean, I would say high up quite well, but did better than expected last year. So I see some of the demand coming through into the hotel sector as well. So, you know, those are two areas that are going to be growth driven. The return to offices, I think, is really around the vaccine rollout. And we're expecting offices, you know, they're still at relatively low level of occupancy, maybe sort of, you know, somewhere between 10 and 20 percent. But we would see that that would that would start to, you know, that that will follow the rate of vaccination, which, you know, we could be up to 90 percent vaccination by Q3. So I think from middle of the second quarter, we will begin to see people returning to the office. And already we're seeing a little bit of a turning sentiment in office leasing. Thank you. Well, Joe, I'm sure you'd like to say a little bit about how you feel about the end of the prior cycle and whether we've adjusted for it. Thank you, Patrice. Sorry about that as having a problem on muting. You know, I think Richard makes a great point about the external shock. And so I think there is a bit of an open question as to whether we're starting a new cycle here or if it really is an extension of an old cycle. One of the things that I spend a lot of time focusing on is the slope of the yield curve. And, you know, what I would note is pre-COVID yield curves around the world had inverted and they had inverted and principally when I look at the yield curve, I look at the difference between the 10 year and the two year. And historically, the yield curve in the United States has been the most accurate predictor of recessions. Historically, when the yield curve is inverted, since the 1970s, you've had basically seven inversions followed by seven recessions. The yield curve had inverted last August of 2019 on a pre-COVID basis. Now, the curve will never tell you what's wrong. It just tells you that something is wrong. And at the time, there were many imbalances, as Richard talks about. I think a lot of them do continue today. And I think a lot of the damage at the time was due to trade and trade wars. So whether or not that's really been corrected or not, I think is an open question. But the reason for my optimism here on the start of this new cycle is because what we have done is we've rebuilt savings, we've increased income, we've reduced debt, and rates have gone even lower. Now, I think we've seen a floor on rates. So I do expect the curve to steepen even further from here. But generally, as we're exiting COVID, we're exiting it on some of the strongest footing that we've ever seen among both households, corporations, as I mentioned before, state and local governments. Now, the reason the idea behind a long cycle is if you think about the demographics here in the United States, as an aging population, we've generally traded strong recoveries for long recoveries. If you look at all recessions going back to the 1880s, I don't think it's a coincidence that three out of the four longest expansions have been in the last 30 years. Generally, in the second half of the 20th century, from post-World War II period to maybe, so 1945 to the year 2000, those periods between recessions, those expansions, would generally see about 4.5% GDP growth. But as the US economy aged, as boomers began to turn 65 and retire, we've generally been in a slower growth environment. But it's also translated to longer cycles. That's one of the reasons why we're optimistic that we are entering another one of these long cycles. We're going to see a front-loaded recovery, as I'd mentioned. And I do very much agree with Richard on his assessment for the above trend growth this year as well as next year. But my view is that we will settle into what will be a longer, but generally lower growth cycle. It's just, in my opinion, it's just a matter of demographics. In our work, we like to say that demographics end up being destiny. And so what we know of aging populations is they tend to trade longer recoveries for strong ones. And we are starting to see, as you say, slightly rising interest rates, but that's off incredibly aberrant historical levels. There's obviously going to be some benefits. And given the demographics, as you say, we've got a lot of pensioners who rely on higher savings rates. And higher interest rates on cash accounts. So do you see some benefit, even if we do see some higher long rates and steeper yield curves? Yeah, it's a great question. And I think the steeper curve reflects a healthier, call it more normal or self-sustaining cycle. So I'm encouraged by the steepening of the curve. If you look at the last three recoveries, the average steepness in the curve is achieved in the first two years. So if you look at the last three recoveries after the 1990s recession, then the tech boom, then the great financial crisis, in the first two years of the recovery, the curve starts to steep in. It peaks at an average of about 250 basis point steep. That's obviously going to lead to some type of rotation, in my opinion. I think we're going to see a rotation from long duration assets to shorter duration assets. And I think we'll see that across the board, not just in fixed income. We're seeing it in equities today, where you do see the 10-year Treasury yield rising. You see, quote unquote, longer duration equities underperforming. You can think about long duration equities as speculative pre-revenue companies, non-earning companies, and zombie companies. These are companies where their cash flow is disproportionately weighted to the distant future. And so when we see the 10-year Treasury yield rise, those long duration equities that tend to have a longer payoff are underperforming. Now, the reason for optimism is a steeper curve brings banks back into the equation in a really positive way, because it means they can earn net interest margin spread. And that's not only here in the United States, but the spillover has been global. The rate spillover has been global. So we're seeing higher yields in Europe as well. And so if you look at things like European banks, from the time when the 10-year Treasury yield bottomed on August 2nd of 2020 at around 50 basis points, you've seen European banks up about 45% through the middle part of March. Now, in the entire last cycle, which was March of 09 to February of 2020, the same European bank index in Euro terms was approximately flat. It was negative on a price return, but when you add in the dividends, it was slightly positive. So you've had European banks up 44%. Just with the steepening of the 10-year Treasury. So I think it's healthy globally. So hopefully that helps. Thank you very much. Absolutely. So, Richard, talking some of these specifics about capital and capital flows and what it has meant for different countries and investments, you wrote in your 2020 year end report that the foreign investment in the US fell to a seven-year low of $28 billion. And that's down approximately 31% from 2019 and so on. So on the other hand, you were very specific in where you felt the major falloff or the most severe falloff of foreign interest into the US came from. And this, of course, has huge implications for such a capital-heavy asset cost, such as real estate. So what do you anticipate these changes to continue or are we going to see different flow patterns as we move out of the crisis of 2020? No, I mean, all things, these things tend to follow GDP.  So I'm actually British, but US asset markets. And I think what we're going to see is that will be facilitated, I think, by continued weakness in the dollar. So this kind of super growth in the United States is going to, I think, we're going to see probably a record trade deficit as the US continues to suck in goods. That is difficult. Forecasting currencies is really a mug's game and I don't really want to get into it, but we've seen dollar weakness. I certainly think we wouldn't see any, there's no reason in those circumstances for dollar strength. And I think that kind of the US showing the strongest growth in the global economy, apart from China, is going to suck in, I think, foreign capital into US real estate assets going forward. And interestingly enough, even over the course of this crisis, because the policy support has been so intense, not just the fiscal policy support, but also the liquidity support given by the Federal Reserve, actually cap rates in the United States have actually been surprisingly resilient. We've even seen cap rate compression in the industrial and logistic sector. We've seen it in the multifamily sector, I think under conditions where the US grows ahead of the rest of the world and foreign capital targets the US, you're likely to see further cap rate, the very least cap rate stability and probably cap rate compression. There is just, I think, if we survey the global situation a little bit more closely, China is forecast to grow at 8.2% or something like that this year. It's quite obvious to me that the tightening cycle is just about to begin. We're hardly out of the crisis and the tightening cycle likely to begin in China, I think. China is likely to rain back the stimulus. So that will take a little bit of heat out of the global economy and might, in a strange way, that I wouldn't bore everybody by explaining probably likely to act against dollar weakness and perhaps not give us the dollar depreciation that we might otherwise have seen. But we expect capital investment into real estate from domestic sources and international sources to be pretty robust, particularly in the second, third and fourth quarter of this year. That's great. Well, capital flows are one of the key drivers of real estate performance and traditionally the other one has been employment growth. Obviously it increases the demand for offices, it increases what people can pay for multifamily residential, it increases retail. Just one of the key leading indicators as our students are often told and they certainly know by the time they graduate. So, Joe, would you like to speak a little about this employment outlook? You've said that it's going to be very, very strong. We do have the stimulus and we have the service sector, as you say, looking strong. Is this going to be enough to keep employment growth solid through the next few years as real estate people plan the demand and supply of their assets? I think it's a great question. I think we will see very solid labor growth. In fact, there's a risk here that we're beginning to see in the market and that is we're actually starting to see tightness in labor markets. And specifically what I would highlight is the NFIB, National Federation of Independent Businesses, a really strong proxy for small businesses here in the United States and they reported a record, 40% of companies, a record reported that they found job openings were hard to fill and 91% of them in the most recent survey, which covered February, found fewer no-qualified applicants. So, with an unemployment rate at around 6.2%, it sort of boggles the mind that companies are beginning to see labor tightness. There are some explanations to it. One is schools being modified for virtual or at home learning and that has had a disproportionate effect on women and specifically the causing women to drop out of the labor force in rates well in excess of men. In fact, if you look at the labor force participation rate, even though we have a relatively high unemployment number of 6.2%, the labor force itself is smaller than it was on a pre-COVID basis because so many people have been forced to drop out or have dropped out for other reasons. And if you look at the demographics, women lost 220,000 more jobs than men did last year. Some of it, a small portion of it is sort of explained by gender distributions among industries. But a more significant driver is when you look at mothers and the labor force participation rate for mothers is 4% below where it was on a pre-COVID basis. And so, as schools reopen, we think the prospects for childcare will improve and that should bring people back into the workforce. There are simply other people who may have just decided to retire early. For instance, there's 10,000 boomers that turn 65 every day. So it could very well be that we're looking at a structurally smaller labor force, which could actually exert some upside pressure on wages. So we could end up having a tighter labor force and one that drives wage growth. It's obviously very, very good for households, but it does run the risk of creating some longer term or core or stickier inflationary pressures. Thank you. And so Richard, another aspect of this strong economic activity and increasing anticipated strength is improving margins for particular areas of the various sectors of the real estate market. And one of these that you have really focused on and highlighted in your recent commentary has of course been this industrial sector, which previously we worked quite so quickly to align. It, yes, it certainly had its correlation, but you have pointed out that this industry, the growth in the industrial sector has been particularly strongly correlated with the economy this time. And you have discussed the increased growth, rental growth in this expanded logistics activity generally because of how we're now ordering and buying and being supplied with our goods. And of course this differs from our traditional focus on multifamily and office. So do you anticipate this continuing? Is the sky the limit in terms of the new, not your grandfather's industrial property sector? Yeah, I mean, I think we do. It was really surprising when we kicked off this whole pandemic crisis. We thought there might be a one-year hit to the industrial sector, two-year hit to the office sector, and a three-year hit to the retail sector. Well, we've telescoped those all back in a little bit. And indeed the industrial sector actually didn't really break step. And Q4 in 2020 was a record quarter for the level of square footage net absorption. Now I'm going to forget the precise figure, but it was about 280 million square feet. And we continue to think that the next 24 months is going to see extremely high levels of net absorption of space. And it's driven by the things that you would expect. Obviously the high rates of GDP growth and the need to ship more goods to consumers is all part of that. But I also think that American suppliers will want to, and all of the American distribution system, probably want to hold higher stock levels than they had in previous cycles. The shock of the disruption from COVID is still fresh in mind, so kind of higher stock levels, higher levels of economic growth. And the growth of e-commerce, albeit some of that will slip back. I think post-pandemic as people go back to the shops, as I've explained. But we're seeing e-commerce moving into, out of kind of hard goods also into the distribution of grocery as well as a strong growth area. So refrigerated logistics is another area that had been growing pre-COVID, but I'm going to make the worst joke on the planet, but refrigerated logistics is an extremely hot sector. So I think we do see that continuing extremely strongly from the next 24 months. And then I think we follow the scenario that Joe had outlined, that growth will probably slip back to a, unless we get some other big event, or the coming boom in the U.S. economy actually proves a lot bigger than we were thinking. Then I think growth will slow back to that relatively low level of economic growth. I'm going to throw in something that you didn't ask about. I think to a certain extent, how the economy grows from maybe 23 onwards depends a little bit about on immigration policy, because we may well run into labor force constraints. And the U.S. then has a choice whether it can grow the economy without inflation pressures building up, or whether it can start to solve some of the labor supply problems by higher levels of immigration. Immigration has dropped off quite considerably over the last 12 months. So I think that's a good point. Immigration has dropped off quite considerably over the last 12 months. Partly that is policy, partly that is COVID. But I think it is possible, the long cycle theory depends to a certain extent, I think, on immigration decisions. And immigration decisions, as we know, politically fraught at the moment and will probably take quite a while to resolve politically in governance and so on. And both of you, Joe, you mentioned indications of tightening labor markets. So this is the usual outbreak of inflation. And so this has led to recent changing predictions, such as by the Federal Reserve just this week, estimating inflation of 2.6% for 2021, something we haven't seen for a long, long time. And then we have Larry Summers warning about inflation and its undermining of asset values. So what's your view on this potential for inflation to bounce back problematically? Or is it going to be manageable? Keeping in mind, let me say, that commercial real estate investors, we really view real estate as offering a hedge against inflation. We have built-in consumer price indexes in leases and so on, and even actually benefiting from it in a not terribly rigorous analysis of appreciation, a more of a nominal appreciation in asset values. But we tend to think of it as really being more beneficial than lacking, until, of course, you get those nasty interest rates on your deck. Yeah, it's a terrific question. And I think this inflation debate is one that we're going to be having, not only now, but I think we'll be having it for the next couple of years, because I do think there is a risk. The way that I would look at it, and I'll offer maybe a couple of comments, I think we'll see a reflation now. But the long-term inflationary picture, I think is a much different one, and I'll highlight a couple of reasons in a minute. But the reflation now, I think, is, number one, just part of some of the historic excess liquidity that we see, not only in the part of households, but corporations, state and local governments. Number two, a reflection of an economy that will open up where you'll have the service sector maybe not necessarily having been able to scale up to handle the demand. And number three, just simply the base effects that a lot of the low inflationary numbers from the second quarter of last year are going to begin to roll out of CPI. So there's some mechanical reasons as to why inflation will rise in the short term, followed by some actual fundamental or what I would call economically-based reasons. But inflation over the long term, I think is a bit of an open question. And I might start off with maybe just a rough paraphrase of a comment that Fed chair Powell made in front of Congress just a couple of months ago when he said, the inflation that I grew up with as a kid is gone. And what he's referring to there is the type of inflation that we saw in the 70s up until it was broken in the early 1980s. There is an argument and I subscribed this point of view that says demographics are destiny and an aging population is inherently disinflationary. So to separate out the short term, which is going to be a reflation, which I think we'll see over the course of the next couple of years as a result of all of this excess liquidity versus the long term, which I think will be over the course of a very long cycle, I would envision that this tug of war between the short term reflation and long term disinflationary forces is something that's going to play out on a real time basis for all of us. And it will affect asset allocation and portfolio decisions. The long term is this. If you look around the world at the countries with the greatest proportion of people that are 65 and older, those are the same countries that have the highest proportion of zero rates and negative yielding debt. And I don't think that's a coincidence. In the United States, 10,000 boomers turn 65 every single day. The first boomer is a retired public school teacher living in South Jersey. If you Google her, you'll see a picture of her on her boat. The name of her boat is first boomer. The last boomer was born December 31st, 1964 at 6.45 p.m. local time in Hospital in Hawaii. He'll turn 65 in the year 2030. Between the first and last boomer, 74 million people. Now, when you think about that in the context of what we know of Europe's demographics and Japan's, it means that across the U.S., Europe and Japan, one out of four people is 65 or older. That's 200 million people across U.S., Europe, Japan. If you look at the countries with zero rates and negative yielding debt, it's Europe, Japan, and then of course the U.S. I don't think that's a coincidence. If this were a course on economics, somebody would raise their hand and say, but wait, Milton Friedman said, inflation is everywhere always will be a monetary policy phenomenon. Milton Friedman argued that for the first time in June in 1970 in a publication. What I don't think Milton Friedman was maybe quite aware of in his day was the role of demographics because the data he had at his fingertips in 1970 was all pointed toward a booming generation, a booming population in U.S., Europe, Japan. So I think the shorter term is about the economy absorbing record liquidity. Longer term, I don't think it's a coincidence that the countries, the oldest countries in the world have the lowest rates. So I'll stop there. And lower inflation rates are actually more historically prevalent if you go back some centuries and so on. So maybe the higher rates was the aberration. And Richard, I know that you're constantly looking at inflation with respect to the various property types, different asset values, different return metrics and so on. So would you like to comment on the anticipated impacts and nuances for the property sector for us? Well, I mean, first just to, I think, you know, our general view is that, you know, similar that despite the fact that we've got all this fiscal stimulus, we do see inflation trending up over the next 12 months or so. And it might just trend up a little bit higher than we expect. And it will create a lot of chatter about, you know, the future and that, I think it will create a jittery bond market you know, I think we do expect it to settle back down. And, you know, this is certainly not going back to the 1970s.  So, you know, despite these record economic stimulus going in, you know, there's a lot of labor still to be absorbed into the market. And we may see odd sectors of the economy where labor markets are extremely tight and we get some wage inflation, but that probably not going to translate into a general inflation going forward. And this, you know, there is still, there are negative output gaps. You know, there is more supply than there is demand. In most of the G7 economies over the next two or three years. So not much, not enough demand pressure to stoke up inflation. What does all of that mean? But nevertheless, you know, I wouldn't want to write Milton Frieden off completely. You know, you've, you know, the last 10 years we saw the kind of decade when the money supply expanded by something like 4% per annum and we had a decade of low inflation. You know, the money supply has just expanded by about, I don't know, 50% or 100% depending on how you care to kind of classify. And it's not really clear nowadays how you do classify the money supply anyway. So I wouldn't want to write that up. And that might have some effects that we can't quite see at the moment. So we don't want to write that up. We want to keep our eyes open for economic anomalies and just keep alert to what they're telling us. Probably all of that monetary expansion will go into asset markets, but it might not. And we can't write that off completely. What does it mean for real estate? Well, I think, you know, one of the attractions of real estate is an investment asset class. Obviously, it's income producing potential and it's cap rate. You know, I think we would probably see bond rates. I think they're up at 1.7% today. Probably likely to continue to nudge ahead. My previous forecast was for the 10-year T to be at 1.8% by the end of this year. I might have to revise that up a little bit. And maybe we'll see bond rates, you know, nudging meaningfully above 2% over the next 12 months or so, maybe even up to 2.5%. And the 10-year treasury is really what property investors price real estate against. But I think, you know, there are enough offset. So, you know, theoretically, one might begin to think, is that going to push up cap rates? But I think there's enough spread between, you know, real estate cap rates. Real estate spreads over 10-year treasuries are actually pretty elevated. And that's been one of the reasons cap rates have been so stable. That's been enough of a spread to counteract the risk that's in the system over the last six or nine months. I think, you know, as risk diminishes, you know, I think investors will be comfortable with seeing that spread diminish. So I don't see too much upward pressure on cap rates in any sector. In addition to that, you know, positive factors, you know, our econometric models, you know, also pick up impacts, positive impacts on cap rates coming through from inflation, positive impacts, i.e. compressing factors on cap rates coming through from rental growth, which is, you know, set not exactly to turn or we've got high rates of rental growth. I'm talking about the office sector, probably see a bottoming of rents in the next 12 months, and people can look forward to some rental growth. And, you know, the other thing that kind of keeps downward pressure on cap rates is just quantitative easing. You know, central bank actions around the world have been quite significant in depressing cap rates. So, you know, I've talked a little bit, that's a bit of a rambling kind of discussion. You asked the question, what about inflation?  But I don't think there's enough inflation to push bond rates out far enough to, you know, to give us any meaningful upward pressure on real estate cap rates. By contrast, I think the counter, there's enough spread and there's enough countervailing forces to keep cap rates stable or even see some compression over the next 12 or 24 months. Thank you, Ed. It seems as though both of you are welcoming, you know, we need some healthy inflation. So it's all a matter of quantum, of course. And maybe we'll have that Goldilocks scenario for real estate whereby we have some good inflation so we get our incomes going up, rental incomes going up and so on. And that gives us enough spread over, you know, moderately rising yields, debt yields. So let's focus on that outlook and sleep at night for a while. So thank you, both of you gentlemen. Now, we're just going to finish up with some closing thoughts. The audience today includes many real estate professionals globally. We've got people tuning in from all over the world and particularly a lot of students in connection with our Columbia real estate, a graduate real estate development program. And they're going to be either hiring, expanding their real estate businesses in this, you know, coming scenario or this more constructive scenario. And of course students are trying to find employment in this industry. So do you have any specific thoughts about what you think might be those interesting areas for expansion, growth of the professional activity? Yeah, maybe I'll comment on that a little bit. We've just released our global investor intention survey. And I think, you know, one of the interesting things is 50 odd percent of investors are deploying ESG strategies. Another 30 percent of investors intend to, you know, deploy ESG strategies.  So I think your students are looking forward to quite a good market. But if they wanted to position themselves for the long term, they might think about how they play a role in decarbonizing the economy. That has, you know, that's extremely important in Europe. It's got slightly less resonance in the United States. But it's still, I think, you know, some people would hold the view that the U.S. has taken a strategic decision to green its economy.  Mm-hmm. Thank you. And Joe, that real estate mammoth at Blackstone, what's their focus these days? Well, I would really underscore Richard's comments on ESG and the long-term role that that's going to play in the real estate and in so many other industries. So I think that's a critically important area. And, you know, you might even point to China, which just released details on its 14th five-year plan. And what wasn't contained in there were specific GDP targets. But what was contained in there were specific targets for research and development, as well as targets on climate and decarbonization. So I think it's a worldwide phenomenon. I think it will shape the next decade or more. So I would very much agree with Richard's comments about positioning oneself for the ESG and decarbonization sort of trends. I think they are secular long-term trends. Last thing I'd mention is just the value of networking, especially for the students out there. In my own history, as I look across the various different jobs that I've held in the finance industry, one thing that stands out is virtually every job I've ever had has been the result of knowing somebody, either in the field or at the specific company. And so I think networking is critically important. Beyond just LinkedIn, anything that folks can do out there to create personal connections, I think will end up helping them in the long term. Thank you. Thank you. That's good advice. And you'd be absolutely amazed at how our students have built up all sorts of creative forms of networking, despite the COVID restrictions. So your words are well taken. Thank you both gentlemen. It's been a fabulous way to start our conference. Optimism but measured. Real estate continues to be something that we should continue to love. So we'd like that. Thank you to you both and we'll see you soon. Bye. Thank you. Bye.


I'm Conner, I am a nursing student doing the Bachelor of Nursing through the University of Newcastle and I'm in my 30th. When I was a teenager I fractured my spine and I was looked after by these amazing nurses who really just cemented for me that that's where I belonged. They made every day happy for me no matter how miserable I was, no matter how much pain I was in. I just wanted to do that. I just wanted to be there through someone's dark days and make them bright. So nursing was for me. The scholarship I received I believed I was the only recipient for so I was blown away. I applied on a whim and was absolutely blown away that they wanted me to receive this money. The fact that this support exists is massive. It's knowing that people want you to succeed no matter where you came from. It means that people can change the cycle of what may have been generations of poverty. I was really surprised that there's these amazing people in the world that want to reach out and help people they don't know. One of my children was going through a bad experience and I was able to be there for him because of this scholarship. I was able to actually buy my uniform because of this scholarship. My laptop died. I was doing my exam on my phone at one point because I just couldn't, I couldn't get any laptop. I don't know if I would have continued in the manner I was doing well. I had no interest in being an academic but now I'm just, I'm so pumped for what my future holds. It makes me want to go forth and give back to everyone else. So I got this opportunity to volunteer at Children's University which is where they take these year six kids through. And their parents may never have been to uni. Their grandparents probably didn't even finish high school. Like these kids who had never seen a university and seeing their highs just like, whoa this is so cool, like this is what you do. I just know that when they go forward if there's people who donate money to scholarships that they're not going to feel like they can't succeed.  To the supporters of the university, the students and the scholarships, I just want to say thank you. Thank you for helping us individually as a community and for making our future brighter.


Hey everyone, it's Missy. Thank you for watching. Today's tutorial is three different types of updos. Make sure to subscribe to my channel if you haven't already and click the notification bell so you never miss a video. And let's get started! For the first bun, I'm going to combine all of my hair together into a high ponytail and tie it off with a hair band. On the last wrap of the elastic, though, I'm only going to pull the hair part way through to create a little loop. Then I'm going to take sections of hair from along the front side of this bun and pin them against my head using some bobby pins. I pinned about three sections of hair and then I pinned the side sections of the bun so that it was flush with my head without any gaps. And then with the ends sticking out the back of the bun, I'm going to combine all of this hair together and bring it back towards the bun and then tuck the hair into the elastic to form another looped section. Then I'm just going to slide some bobby pins into the sides of the bun to close off any gaps between the front and back sections of the bun.  On the last wrap of the elastic, I'm going to pull the hair part way through again to create another loop. Then with the hair that's sticking out from the bun, I'm going to lift this hair up and back comb it with my fingers. So I'm just putting my fingers into the hair and pulling my hand downwards back combing it so it's thicker and more full. Then I'm going to divide the hair into two sections and twist each section upwards. Then I'm going to wrap each of these sections around the base of the bun, one around the right side and one around the left. Then crossing them along the front of the bun, I'm going to pin down the ends using some bobby pins. Then to hide the elastic band at the back of the bun, I'm going to pull on sections of the hair in opposite directions just to make it fuller. And then I'm going to take a section of hair and pin it down at the back of the bun so the elastic band doesn't show. For the third hairstyle, I'm going to combine all of my hair together in a high ponytail and tie it off using a hair band. Then I'm going to divide the ponytail into two sections and using my fingers, I'm going to back comb each section again like in the previous hairstyle so the hair is really big and full. Now I'm going to loosely gather the ponytail and gently twist it all together. I'm going to wrap the twist around the hair band to form the bun and you can either tuck the ends of the twist underneath the bun or I want to head and pull on the edges of the twist to make it fuller and then I just laid it in front of the bun and then I'm just going to pin down the ends using some bobby pins. I also went around the bun pinning the edges with bobby pins making sure to hide them underneath the hair so they didn't show and I just did this wherever the hair felt a little bit loose. Let me know down in the comment section which of the three hairstyles was your favorite and I'm also curious to know whether you found these hairstyles easy to do or more difficult. Make sure to subscribe to my channel if you're new or if you haven't already and click the notification bell so you'll be notified whenever I post a new tutorial. Thank you so very much for watching and I will see you next time.


The results of this study suggest that although the patterns of GFAP and UCH-L1 release in trauma patients over a week post-injury were similar between the sexes, there were significantly higher concentrations of UCH-L1 in males at several time points post-injury. Despite this, the overall diagnostic accuracies of both GFAP and UCH-L1 over time for detecting MTBI and CT lesions were not significantly different between male and female trauma patients. This article was authored by Linda Puppa, Gretchen Embrophy, Wilma Alvarez and others.


In this video, I'm going to show you guys how to create these beautiful layers using only four ponytails. That's right, four ponytails. Let's get started. Alright guys, so sectioning is simple, separate front and back. And then you're going to take out that crown area using a round horseshoe section. So basically creating kind of a moon shape on the top crown area. Then I take out the fringe, I put that into a ponytail. And then I grab the two sides, pull them up, put them into one ponytail together at the high point of the head. And then I take that entire back and I put that into the fourth ponytail. And that's where I'm going to start my cut. So the key thing here is to make sure you get that ponytail at the highest elevation possible. That'll give me really nice collapsed layers. Pick your length and then you're going to start cutting in. Pretty blunt line. I'm using point cutting so it's a little bit softer.  This not only removes weight but it builds a ton of texture in the hair as well. Want to let you guys know that this video is sponsored by MinervaBeauty.com And they are doing an incredible giveaway. $5,000 plus your airfare for you and a friend to check out their 25,000 square foot showroom and experience firsthand what MinervaBeauty has to offer and hand select your new equipment. All you have to do to enter is go to MinervaBeauty on Instagram, follow MinervaBeauty and then also click the link in their bio, fill out that form. And that's it. The contest ends 10, 15, 20, 23. So make sure you don't wait. Go over there so you don't forget. You can't win if you don't try. They'll be announcing the winner on their story within seven days after the contest ends. Good luck, guys. Let's get back to the video. So now we just removed the ponytail. You can see the layers already popping through. These are the longest layers in the cut. Now it's going to get a little bit shorter as we move up. I grab a guide from my previous section. Bring it to the new ponytail, the second ponytail. I'm using the FSE hybrid elite dry cutting scissor available on freesloneducation.com to cut and point cut in on the dry hair. And then I go in with my Dual 20 Pro just to lighten things up, add a little bit of texture just like I did in the first ponytail. And then we drop that ponytail down and we move on to our third ponytail which takes on the sides of the head and the top. And all I do is I grab the guide from my previous section, bring it to the third ponytail, point cut my line, point cut a little bit deeper to add that texture. And then I go in with the Dual 20 Pro and I add even more texture and lighten it up even more. This is really the area that is going to focus the most on that face frame. So you'll see that those are the shortest layers. You can see how they're starting to form around her face. And now we're going to go in with our Dual 20 Pro. That ponytail on the very front is right on the forehead. That is over directing everything to a center point. I use my Dual 20 Pro to make the line nice and light. I don't want a blunt line on this. It'll allow her fringe to fall nice and soft. You'll see I even go in on those mid shafts and pull through. And then once I take that ponytail out, you're going to see how soft that falls. And then once I comb it back right here, you're going to see how that just flies right off the face nice and light. So here you go, guys. This is our end result. Let me know in the comments below. Do you like this technique? Does it seem simple? Can you use it in the salon? Let me know. Thank you guys so much for watching. I'll see you guys on the next video. Thanks.