On Wednesday I would like you to come having read one of Stephen's's longer poems. It's not too long, but it's a little longer. The Roars of Autumn, which is a wonderful poem. It's not exactly timely at this moment, but please come having thought about it. As you read it, think about images that you find in the poem of stars, of the theater, of images of mother and father. The poem is full of both. A friend asked me the other side, are there any happy poets? Well, and of course, no, there really aren't, or at least not any that are any good, right? No, that's not true. In fact, as I think about the syllabus, Williams is a happy poet. He calls himself the happy genius of his household in that dance roost where he's talking about running around the house naked. Marianne Moore, I think in many ways, is a happy poet. But no poet is so happy as Wallace Stevens. And Stevens is happy in the sense that he is a comic poet. And that doesn't mean that you're going to laugh a lot at Wallace Stevens, though you might sometimes. And he can be silly, though that's perhaps not his strongest vein. Stevens is a comic poet in the sense, in the generic sense, of a poet in whom and for whom and with whom the world always comes right. The world is right and good. It is a regenerative, exhilarating, endlessly consoling and meaningful place to dwell. And Stevens is really, as I read him every year, I like him more and more. He becomes more and more important. Stevens gives us really a comprehensive view of the world, in which poetry and imagination have central roles to play. Imagination, that's an important word in Stevens. It's a word he takes right out of British romanticism and the long tradition of romantic poetry. And Stevens is, though in complex ways, like Hart Crane and a defiantly romantic, modern poet. Stevens's poetry, like Moores, like Crane's, to some extent like Frost, is always, in a sense, meta-poetry. That is, well, he shares with these poets, as with certain others on our paper, the sense that poetry has to always involve an investigation into its own rules, how it works, what it does, what it's capable of, what its potential uses are, and that all these are, in a sense, open and available to redefinition at a fundamental level. He says there's a sort of wonderful set of adages or epigrams or statements at the back of your book, which come from Stevens's Dajia. One of those statements is, all poetry is experimental poetry. And there's a sense in any Stevens poem that Stevens is going to, is experimenting and is going in some new direction, not just at the beginning of the poem but throughout the poem. That's how it proceeds. You could compare this idea to Williams' interest in newness and a sense of life as always subversive of life preceding. It's a related idea for Stevens. In his poem of modern poetry, which is a little essay on the subject of what is modern poetry, Stevens says, it has to construct a new stage. And it not only has to construct that new stage, it has to be on it too. And there's a way in which they're both creating a new space in which to speak, and they're speaking from there. These two things are going on at once. Stevens also says, in that set of adagio, there are wonderful provocative ones throughout. A poem is a pheasant for one. He also says poetry is a means of redemption. He meant it. For Stevens, poetry stands in the place that religion once did. Other poets that we've read this semester look to poetry to serve different functions of religion, I think. For Eliot, he is concerned with ritual and community in ways in which poetry might establish these, constitute these. More is the most, well, with Eliot, the most serious Christian, is concerned with poetry as a model for ethical action, as a kind of guide for conduct in the world. And poetry models for her what she calls love, or hope, or striving, or doing hard things. For Stevens, poetry takes over another dimension of religious experience. Poetry takes over Christianity's traditional concern with redemption, and with redemption, with questions about the afterlife, paradise, the transcendental. How can culture imagine the transcendental in a non- transcendental world? How can it imagine the physical in a non-metaphysical world? How can we have heaven if we don't have God? These are all questions in Stevens' poetry. He answers them in ways that put him on Hart Crane's side of the debate with Eliot. In the wasteland, the decay of sacred authority, this is a crisis of community, of meaning. Language has sort of lost its meaning. For Crane, this condition, rather than a crisis, is an opportunity, an opportunity for poetry to lend a myth to God. Eliot is disturbed to see God as something constructed, something linguistic, something we might lend a myth to, and only lend it in the sense that we're going to have to bring it back. For Crane, for Stevens, God always was a myth, a metaphor, and metaphors can and need to be exchanged and renewed all the time. In this Crane and Stevens are very close together. Let's look at an early poem of Wallace Stevens, an early grand poem called Sunday Morning. The first one in your Stevens selection is on page 237. Sunday Morning was published in Poetry Magazine in 1915, which is to say it's contemporary with proofrock, roughly contemporary with Marianne Moore's aggrave, both poems that appeared in poetry, too. Let's read this first stanza. Complacencies of the peignoir and late coffee in oranges in the air, in the green freedom of a cockatoo upon a rug, all these things mingle to dissipate the holy hush of ancient sacrifice. She dreams a little, and she feels the dark encroachment of that old catastrophe, that old catastrophe being the crucifixion, as it calm darkens among them, or if it's not the crucifixion that's the fall. The pungent oranges and bright green wings seem things in some procession of the dead, winding across wide water without sound. The day is like wide water without sound, stilled for the passing of her over the seas to silent Palestine, dominion of the blood and sepulcher. This is a poem about not going to church, about doing something else with Sunday Morning. It announces, or it takes for granted, really a great change in culture, a change in the cultural order where Sunday Morning is no longer spent, or need not necessarily always be spent at church. Stevens is writing about, in some ways, the end of the Christian era. Of course it's gone on, but in a different form from what it had been known as. You could think about how unlike this poem is, how little this poem is like a poem on a similar theme in Yeats, such as The Second Coming, where the end of Christianity is an apocalyptic event and there's some rough beast slouching towards Bethlehem. Instead, in Stevens the power of the past, the Christian era, simply dissipates, dissolves in the circumstances that he's describing. What is a peignoir? I think Stevens likes the French word. This is a dressing gown. We have a female figure here presented to us in a space of domestic bourgeois luxury, comfort, complacency even, with coffee and oranges and a cockatoo. Whether that cockatoo is actually a bird or a design in the rug, critics have disagreed. You can make that bird what you like. This female presence that we're introduced to is a figure for the poet, an unnamed she that the poem will be about. She, embodying poetic sensibility, poetic thinking and poetic impulses, seems to place poetry in this space of domestic comfort, seems to identify poetry with the feminine, with a female perspective, and with consumption, with fine imported goods, as you will find elsewhere in Stevens, identifies a life of ease with the imagination. Stevens' poetry, like Yeats' in certain ways, though in very different terms, or even like Elliott's, presents us with a number of very powerful female figures with whom the poet identifies his own creativity. This is an important one. There's an aspect of Stevens that's gendered as feminine, you could say. It's that aspect of Stevens that identifies with poetry as a space apart from the masculine world of work. We contrast this with Frost, who Stevens identifies poetry with subjective freedom, a space apart from objective necessity, what Frost is always responding to. Stevens maintains a complex attitude, however, with identification of poetry with aspects of culture that are gendered as female. There's a macho strain in Stevens, too, often a hyperbolic and somewhat comic one in which Stevens is identifying with giants, big men, and I'll talk more about that in two lectures from now. In this poem, I think, well, possibly warding off the anxiety of identifying poetry so clearly and strongly with the female, Stevens includes in Stanzas 7 on 239, 240, a kind of parodic celebration of masculinity, supple and turbulent, a ring of men shall chant an orgy on a summer moor in their boisterous devotion to the sun, not as a god but as a god might be naked among them like a savage source, and so on. This is another vein of Stevens' imagination, and it's here in this poem in, again, almost hyperbolic form. If Stevens is anxious about identifying poetry with the feminine, I think that's because in a sense, as Stevens sets things up here at this early point in his career, all poets are women poets on Sunday morning. Poetry can only be written on Sunday morning or on the weekend or after hours at the end of the workday. These are the spaces in which, in his life, poetry exists, but more generally these are the sort of cultural spaces that the times that Stevens identifies poetry with. Here, in this poem, Stevens is, in a sense, brooding on the bourgeois image of the earthly paradise, that is, what it's like to have a nice home and some free time in it. It's a poem that Stevens wrote in his twenties, in the earliest phase of his career. Like Eliot, like Frost, Stevens went to Harvard, all these modern poets went to Harvard. He was, from early on, divided in his ambitions between poetry and the law, a securely masculine pursuit. Stevens tried journalism briefly in New York and legal practice before, eventually, he entered the Hartford Accident and Indemnity Company in our state, where he remained for the rest of his life, becoming a national authority on surety bonds and leading an extraordinary divided life, a life in which poetry was identified with leisure and repose. There's a kind of cyberritic quality to Stevens' imagination. He luxuriates in another one of those adagias. He says, a poem is a café, and so it is, in Stevens' case. Poetry represents a kind of release from objective disciplines, including the nineteenth-century Protestant injunctions to refuse private pleasures, to save for future life, perhaps a life beyond life and after life. This is the, quote, puritanism that Crane projects to early in his career and fights against. And Stevens, too, is here in a more cautious way, struggling against it. On 238, in the second stanza of this poem, he says, Why should she give her bounty to the dead? Why should she give her spirit, her imaginative investments, her hopes, to the dead? Here, suggesting both the dead Jesus and also a future life beyond life that Christianity would look towards. Stevens is imagining Earth itself as where bounty is given and where it should be bestowed. It's where we are, and he'll go on and describe it in this stanza. What is divinity if it can come only in silent shadows and in dreams? Shall she not find in comforts of the sun in pungent fruit and bright green wings or else in any bomb or beauty of the earth things to be cherished like the thought of heaven? No, divinity can't be off somewhere else, it can't be beyond life. Divinity must live within herself. And what form does it take there? Passions of rain or moods in falling snow, grievings and loneliness or unsubdued elations when the forest blooms, gusty emotions on wet roads at autumn nights, all pleasures and all pains, remembering the bow of summer and the winter branch. These are the measures destined for her soul. Here, divinity must live within the person in her subjectivity, a subjectivity that's modeled on and represented as a version of the sensual encounter with the seasons, which are themselves revolving and balanced and cyclical, the bow of summer and the winter branch. To say that paradise must be here on earth is also to say that it must include death and dying, a world of change, a world that's always, in a sense, passing out of existence. And Stevens says in Stanzas 6, Stanzas 5, but in contentment, he says with her, I still feel the need of some imperishable bliss. Death is the mother of beauty, hence from her alone shall come fulfillment to our dreams and our desires. Paradise, if it is to exist on earth, must include death in it. And as the poem moves towards its close, that's what Stevens imagines for us. It's also a scene that he leaves us with, in the eighth stanza. It's a scene of a world of plenty, a beautiful world, but also a world which, for these reasons, includes death in it. Let's look at that. It returns to the opening lines of the poem and then the poem pans out to give a view of the landscape and the world around us. She hears, upon that water without sound, a voice that cries, the tomb in Palestine is not the porch of spirits lingering. It is the grave of Jesus where he lay. The tomb is empty. Jesus is not a presence for us. And now Stevens moves for the first time in the poem out of that third person she to speak in the first person plural. We live in an old chaos of the sun or old dependency of day and night, or island solitude, unsponsored, free of that wide water inescapable. We live in an old chaos of the sun. We live in a world that is material. It exists as a set of rocks blasted across the universe, that the sun structures and radiates. Even as Stevens makes this declaration, characteristic of him is the resistance to residing in any one formulation. He'll say one thing and then he'll say another, or, and notice this pattern here where he in fact gives two oars, old dependency of day and night. That's another way of imaging our world where day and night, these essential contraries, these essential natural forms are dependent on each other, are constituting each other continuously. We are dependent on them. They are dependent on each other. We exist or perhaps in island solitude. Here the world, the globe, this natural space, this earthly paradise is an island and a solitary one, one without God out there in what a condition Stevens will call unsponsored and therefore free. We are dependent on that of that wide water inescapable where that wide water that was first introduced to us in the first stanzas of the poem becomes a kind of image for a silence in the world, which is the silence of a lack of, I think, divine language. From these generalizations Stevens then moves to these mountains, deer walk upon our mountains, and the quail whistle about us their spontaneous cries, sweet berries ripen in the wilderness, and in the isolation of the sky at evening, casual flocks of pigeons make ambiguous undulations as they sink downward to darkness on extended wings. Stevens' approach, finally, is not to generalize about the world but to describe it, to not tell us how things should be or might be or were, but rather how they are, how they are now and at this moment. Stevens evokes the world in a state of fullness, of ripeness, those berries are ripening, deer walking on the mountains. That present tense that he's using evokes action that is ongoing, is present, and yet all these sensual satisfactions that he evokes are colored by evening. Pleasure here is shadowed by death, not unhappily, but it is the color of the environment, of the evening. The birds, they make a downward movement, and yet their wings are extended. Their undulations are ambiguous in that sense, much as the dependency of day and night is itself ambiguous. You could contrast those birds with heart cranes ascending seagull at the beginning of the bridge. This is a different image. Stevens is here trying to image for us a non-transcendental secular vision of the world. Let's look ahead to another poem, Poems of Our Climate on 240, excuse me, 252. Another poem exploring the idea of paradise. Stevens means here, in that title, the poems of our climate, he means America, our culture, our environment, our situation. It's a poem that you might read alongside a poem like England by Marianne Moore. He also means the poems of our time, or our moment, and our time or our moment for Stevens is defined as a climate, as a kind of environment, rather than some other kind of arching way of understanding or defining the present moment. It's not, as the poem unfolds, a question about nature so much as about culture. Stevens will here explore one of his recurrent impulses, that is to renew poetry by simplifying terms, by getting down to some essentials, some primary elements. If Stevens is a sensualist, he's also a kind of ascetic. He can be both, and as an even find, I suppose, a kind of sensual asceticism. And this poem exemplifies that clear water in a brilliant bowl, pink and white carnations. The light in the room more like a snowy air reflecting snow, a newly fallen snow, at the end of winter when afternoons return. We still don't have a main verb yet. Pink and white carnations, one desire so much more than that. The day itself is simplified, a bowl of white, a cold porcelain, low and round, with nothing more than the carnations there. This is Stevens exploring another version of secularity, of the secular. Giving us a poetry, it seems, as he starts, not of ideas but of things, as Williams might approve. It is a world of white. You can understand the impulse here as a version of the reduction to nakedness or the reduction to primary terms that imagism seeks to accomplish. And these are, in a sense, precisely images that Williams is presenting to us almost as a kind of still life there, that clear water in a brilliant bowl, and the pink and white carnations where that word carnation from the Latin, meaning flesh, evokes the colors of the body and of blood and of flesh. And yet those qualities are here held in a kind of suspension that contains them and treats them coolly and arranges them. And it's unsatisfying to Stevens. The moment he has created this still life, he starts to want to get rid of it. He says, say even that this complete simplicity that I've just produced here, stripped one, in fact, of the heat of the flesh, stripped one of all one's torments, concealed the evilly compounded vital eye, and made it fresh in a world of white, a world of clear water, brilliant edged. Still one would want more. One would need more, more than a world of white coolly sense. And again, this is characteristic of Stevens' imagination. If he said one thing, he will now try something else. He will now turn his strategy in another direction. He continues here affirming powers of mind. There would still remain the never resting mind, so that one would want to escape, come back to what had been so long composed. The imperfect is our paradise. Note that, in this bitterness, delight, since the imperfect is so hot in us, lies in flawed words and stubborn sounds. The never resting mind always wants more, even as it wants to get down to primary terms. It then wants more again. Paradise is the imperfect. The imperfect meaning, again Stevens is always playing on Latin, I think. The imperfect is the incompleted, the not finished, the ongoing. And two, there's tinges in that word imperfect of corruption, of fallenness, of flaws, as Stevens will go on to say. The imperfect is something that's not cold, but it's hot as people are hot. It's hot with desire. It's the heat, a heat of desire that shows itself, as Stevens says, in flawed words and stubborn sounds. Stevens affirms the never resting mind, but above all he affirms a kind of continuing impulse and demand to speak, to find flawed words and stubborn sounds. Over the course of the poem, Stevens moves from a still world to a world in action, and he moves from a world that is verbal to a world that is verbal, that's linguistic. Here, Ann Elsewhere and Stevens' language is the privileged medium of human desire and aspiration. It's what gives us delight, his word here. It gives us pleasure, and in this sense it remains, which does, on the side of leisure and of play, rather than of discipline and work. In yet, also note the implications of those adjectives. Flawed implies craft, some kind of making, I think, and stubborn. Stubborn suggests perseverance, discipline, perhaps surprisingly, a kind of continuing will to, well, not to rest and to go on speaking. These values that emerge in this poem are, well, they're recurrent in Stevens. You'll find him exploring them, celebrating them elsewhere. Let's go forward to the poem called The Man on the Dump, on 254, for another poem, again, exploring and affirming certain capacities of language. This is Stevens at play in the landscape of the world. This is the landscape of the wasteland, if you like. Stevens, in a letter, explains that on his way to work he walked to work from West Hartford to downtown, and he would observe, during the Depression, a man on the dump and composed this poem, directed by him. Day creeps down. The moon is creeping up. The sun is a corbea of flowers. The moon blanched. Of course, she's blanched. She's the white moon. Places there, a bouquet, ho-ho.  Days pass like papers from a press. The bouquets come here in the papers. So the sun and so the moon both come, and the janitor's poems of every day, the wrapper on the can of pears, the cat in the paper bag, the corset, the box from Estonia, the tiger chest for tea. If Stevens celebrates desire, celebrates consumption and sensual pleasure, as he does, well, that makes a certain amount of garbage. That makes a certain amount of waste. If you are constantly seeking new ways of phrasing and understanding the world, you're going to have to be getting rid of the ones you just had, the ones that you were just using. The dump is an image of this, which Stevens confronts here with a certain kind of irritation, playful, but not so far, I think, from despair. The dump is a place of old poetry. Of course, Stevens' own poetry doesn't want to end up like this, or maybe it does, since Stevens is able to find in the dump a certain kind of regenerative power. The freshness of night, any poet knows, has been fresh a long time. The freshness of morning, the blowing of day. One says that it puffs as Cornelius Nepoth reads. It puffs more than, less than, puffs like this or that. Maybe it's just all air, these poems. Stevens is talking about the problem of cliché. He's talking about the way in which any formulation dies, becomes frozen, becomes bouquet you must throw out. This is a condition in the wasteland that Eliot profoundly mistrusts. Stevens, on the other hand, sees in it a potential for a vision of the self that is consoling and is powerful. Stevens generates, as the poem goes on, an image of the poet as a man on the dump, one who beats an old tin can and makes stubborn sounds, which are, if you like, sounds of his own stubbornness. Stevens is willing, as Eliot is not, to make belief be a personal thing, to be something that each of us constructs out of our own will and our own powers of speech. As the poem develops, Stevens goes through a kind of gesture of throwing things out, a kind of reduction to primary terms that is like the poems of the poet as around line 21 or so. He says, now in the time of spring, azaleas, trilliums, myrtle, verbenums, daffodils, blue flocks, you know all the names. Between that disgust and this, and I think there is disgust in the poem, between the things that are on the dump, azaleas and so on, and those that will be azaleas and so on, one feels the purifying change, one rejects the trash, and as one rejects the trash, as one gets down to some kind of primary whiteness, some kind of fresh seeing of the world, we then start to see the moon in perhaps different terms, not merely as blanche, you know, some old lady from poems from the past, but perhaps in some new terms. Stevens says, that's the moment when the moon creeps up to the bubbling of bassoons. That's the time one looks at the elephant colorings of tires. Even this ugliness is interesting. Everything is shed. When the moon comes up, then as the moon, because all its images are in the dump, you have to see it freshly, and you see, because you're seeing freshly now, as a man, not like an image of a man. You see the moon rise in the empty sky. One sits and beats an old tin can, lard pale, one beats and beats for that which one believes. That's what one wants to get near. Could it after all be merely oneself that you want to get near, that you need to get near? Stevens is willing to say yes, whereas Eliot is, as I say, frightened of this prospect. Merely oneself as superior as the ear to a crow's voice. Did the nightingale torture the ear, pack the heart and scratch the mind, and does the ear solace itself in peevish birds? Is it peace? Is it a philosopher's honeymoon one finds on the dump? Is it to sit among the mattresses of the dead, bottles, pots, shoes, and grass, and murmur, Baptist Eve? Is it to hear the bladder bubbles and say, invisible priest, is it to eject, to pull the day to pieces and cry, stanza my stone? Where was it one first heard of the truth? The The. It's a wonderful poem that's on the verge of nonsense, that's on the verge of a kind of personal language that, as I say, is an apocalyptic thing to hear a source of energy and power and play for Stevens. Stevens is not afraid of nonsense, he's not afraid of idiosyncrasy of expression. He is willing to play with words. Linguistic play puts Stevens in touch with a kind of primal poetic resource. Stevens understands truth as something that is linguistic, it's something constructed in and through language. It is, therefore, perishable. It is also, for the same reason, renewable. Look at that last line. Where was it one first heard of the truth? The The, if you prefer. That last sentence fragment, The The, is it, what is that? Is that an answer or a clarification to the question? Where was it one first heard of the truth? Now, where did this idea of truth come from to begin with? Where did you get that idea? Why do you want it? Because it is something that you have heard about. It is something that has been spoken. It has come to us as language has framed it. The The, the definite article. It's the definite article that makes the truth the truth. Otherwise, it would be merely only what? A truth. That is, to indicate and declare truth in its singularity, to give it this status. That is a linguistic act. The truth is the function, as Stevens understands it, of a certain linguistic capacity. In this case, a verbal formula which takes priority ultimately over any specific content or doctrine, any truth. In that sense, the truth lies in the The. The The is here representative of the human capacity for declaration, for statement, a specifically verbal and linguistic power. The truth that it represents is not in any sense a final term, a last word, a doctrine, a particular content of any kind. Instead, it points to a way of thinking, a medium of thought, a medium of thought and desire, a process which is a process of naming, or as Stevens would also call it of modern poetry, an act of finding. This is what language does in Stevens. It creates the world, it finds the world, it constructs the world through such elementary terms as the definite article. Well, we'll hear more about the implications of this perspective on experience next time and following.


This lesson is called 10 gram algorithms. A 10 gram is a puzzle with seven pieces that can be put together to make other shapes. You'll be using an algorithm to explain to your partner how to put the puzzle together. An algorithm is just a list of steps that you can take to complete a task. We use them every day with things like shopping lists and recipes. If you keep an algorithm simple, there are lots of ways to interpret it and whoever performs that algorithm might not get at you exactly what you wanted. If you want to make sure that everyone ends up with the exact same thing, then your algorithm will need to be detailed and very specific. I'm using an algorithm today to complete a painting. So I wanted to try doing a painting of some wolves, but I'm not the most amazing painter. Luckily for people like me, there is paint by numbers. So there are 40 colors and it has little letters and numbers that tell you which color to paint each of these sections. First, tells me exactly what color to use and where. It's very specific, so I'm able to follow directions and the painting will come out looking awesome. It's a great algorithm. If the instructions weren't specific enough, my wolves wouldn't look as good. So when you really want something to turn out exactly the way that you planned it, it's best to be extremely precise. Good job.


Yeah, promise present here, $130 on the problem of taxes 7, which is one of the fundamental assumptions in, for example, in the month of April, and each one of those planes cost $50,000 tons of bombs. What this all might, 67, and it looks to me, and this is the roughest kind of estimate, it might require $14 billion, more obligation authority, above the level that we went in in November that we estimated $50,000. Now we knew at the time that was a couple of billion light. And now we take account of these much higher levels of troops, all these ads up to, let's say, maybe $7 billion to as much people as Joe Bowler and Gardner close mouths as they are, leak a little, and they do just sure as hell your great society programs in trouble. On the other hand, if I don't mention them, I don't know how they can intelligently advise you on what they think ought to be done here this summer. My own personal view still is, as I related it to you before, we ought to try to squeeze by the summer without a tax increase and without a supplement, and hope that between the summer and January, we would see the Southeast Asia operation more clearly, and we would also see the economy more clearly. But I didn't want to hold anything back from your key advisors if you thought I should mention it too. It's very difficult. On what I have said at 1-8, that we will likely miss that by on sales of assets which will not bring what we think, or we will not get authority to do it, and so forth. I would say that we, a conservative figure to go in will be four. As a matter of fact, I did it better than I thought it would, because I wouldn't have been too surprised to hit five or six. I just hoping if I could keep it low, I could get my great society authorized, like the rent control, rent supplement, and teacher's core, and all these things that are so new and fresh. We can't do that because the liberals are really not supporting them. You don't get any enthusiasm or do or die attitude from organizations like Martin Luther King and the Royal Wilkins Group and the Labor Groups. And the leaders of Congress aren't helping you. That's right. If a rubber cough had much rather make a speech on UN or something and tell us how to run that and try to get a headline, they really don't have the enthusiasm for these new things. So that will be four. Now then, what the rivers is and the morse is and the forward is on health and education on what we've already authorized. I'm not talking about their new society, but they've already, I caught them through last year and the year before. My guess is that they will hit a minimum of five. Four anyway. Say four. So that's another four. They say they're going to put in $600 million more on education under elementary. They added $500 million more on expenditures in health and education in this appropriation bill. They have already added a good deal of the GI bills, $300 million that we've already signed. The pay raises will be nearly almost a billion. So it's not far off. All of the expenditures would run better than three, between three and four. And that was before they started talking to me about the estimates the morse is going to put in. And I would imagine that as they go along, they'll try to cut a little bit on foreign aid and stuff. But please, I have visualized it in my own mind. Four for you. That's what I thought you would finally get up to. I thought you'd be off to start with and you'd misjudge to. Or the need would be to. Now that I have thought. Now the question is whether we could keep that under his deficit and maybe get by until January. I was now had a 12 and a half one. And we've always just had a rule of thumb that we never go above that because that would really be capitulation. We just have to throw in the towel, not even run if we had a bigger deficit than he did. So I have hope that, say June the 15th, I believe the Congress will be there the 1st of September, but June the 15th that I could call all the folks together and say, now here's the next two weeks and here's the way it's going to wind up as we see it. Now what can you do? What will you do here on taxes and talk to mills and long and a few who have their feet absolutely in concrete now? My judgment is if I indicated that I was going to have to have taxes. Now I should have taxes like Martin asked publicly. And like Gardner is privately. My judgment is that that will drive mills and long to a position that's irrevocable that will make them as much in concrete against a tax bill as they are now against rent supplement. If they can see these figures and business can see these figures in June and we have the appropriation bills pretty well behind us and the Congress has taken the initiative in busting the budget, not you, not me, not the bureaucrats, but they have come through with a four billion when big and they have refused to give us the authority we need to sell securities. Then I would think we'd have a better position, say all right fellas you've looked at a different way. I didn't want to go this way, but here it is. Now what do you think we ought to do? I think then they would say we don't believe we ought to go home with this big of deficit. Now economic things that come out with us one tenth of a percent one way or the other. I don't know, I look at our prices here and we've got a lot of soft stuff. Our mohairs folks are way down 30 to 22. Our cattle nobody will buy a calf. They just nobody. Now that's dangerous business. When their market is 28 cents and you contract them for August delivery normally and you can't get a guy to contract. Now we're delivering our sheep today. Our lambs I'm going over and ship them on the train in the next two hours. I'm selling 575 per pound. They weigh 100 pounds so that's 25. They have dropped our delivery between the 1st and 15th of May. They weigh about, and I put 40 pounds on them. But they have dropped in the last 30, 40 days from 2575 that I'd contracted three months ago down to about 21 or two. So there's your lamb. There you can. There's your pork said yesterday. He's working on a Chicago meeting for these sales. It's not soft. It's not clogging up on him. His colored radios and other things are just not moving. People up and down the avenue. We have eight salesmen. The main street in Austin. It's a quarter of a million population. And they really are not buying anything. Won't even advertise what they got. Just say that things are awful slow. They've got to hold out. They've got to tighten their belt. But that is enough for me to say I don't have to jump from May 15th to June 15th. What will be disasters for us is if we demand a wage increase like Martin, I mean a tax bill like Martin's demanding.  And I wish that Martin and Gardner both could. If we demand it and don't get it, that's about as bad as we can go into election with the effects of it or the leadership. Whatever else you think we must not admit it. We must not even feel it in our own minds. But we're not going to get much out of the Congress. We didn't get the first six months. And you can just be sure you're going to get static. And what we have, the danger we have, is if we lose the Congress as we could very well, then the next two years as we go into election they'll tear the Democratic Party wide open and it will be in much worse shape than it was when Stevenson took it, 52, for the 68 election. Now they don't understand that and they are all talking about 72, but this fight's not 72, this is 68. Nobody that don't fool me. And our people are not just, the liberals are not prudent folks and they don't evaluate carefully and they don't see that. But you can't have Fulbright and Rivercoff and Bobby Kennedy and Teddy Kennedy and Mike Mansfield and everybody rush along will have a new viewpoint going in opposite directions and have a compact unified group. Now we would have been defeated in my judgment in 64, largely because that's what we did have. Nobody would co-heize during the 61, 62, 63 period. Really what we got through primarily was test ban and Peace Corps. We got none of the big substantive important things we needed, immigration and school bill and Medicare and all those things. Now we did get them through six months. So I would say back to your original question that I just wouldn't make my calculations. I would say to these people that you can't tell and no one can tell right now that Hoover had a mighty good period in 29 and everything was wonderful. But then the stock market started going off and things started getting soft and before he knew it by 30 he was in trouble and by 31 he was in a hell of a shape. Now you don't think that's going to happen at all but if we mis-guess this thing and if we took 8, 10 billion out in taxes and if something happened in the war that gave you a break you could have thrown this country into something right quick and therefore you think you better prudently look at it and see what effects you get from your bombing between now and June the 15th. You better see what the Congress does. You can't tell what they're going to do in these preparations. If they cut us 4 billion that would be good. If they go over 4 billion that's another action and you can't tell whether it's going to be under 4 or over 4. They say it's going to be under 4. Tell them you think the president thinks it'll be over 4. Be nearer 4 plus than 4 minus. That's the fair thing. I think you'd say that you could easily run 4 or better but that January, February, March you have missed it by a billion dollars if that's correct. I think January, February you even over 700 in March. I don't know what you do in April. Well, we're going to get it for the... Yeah, I know but I mean just... You're quite right in that. Then I think you'd get them to watch in the Congress transfer the gossip and the heat up there where they say it's going to depend on what you do, what we do. It's not McNamara made a fool mistake in Johnson and it's not us in decision. It's us waiting to see what you do. If you make a net change of 8 billion if Congress cuts it for, that's alright. If they raise it for, that's 8 billion difference and the 8 billion difference can really determine what we do, that's my thinking. And then the sale of assets, that's got a good deal to do with it. We plan to sell 4.7 billion. Now some of the market got tight and we couldn't do it and soon we didn't get the authority and we haven't got a rule on the bill yet. That's 4.7 that we count.


Hello, I'm Tom Wood, and I'm the trauma program manager at Mid-Michigan Medical Center in Midland. And I'm Dr. Tom Veverka, the medical director of the trauma program. As we enter another hunting season, we would like to personally remind hunters throughout the area to hunt responsibly and make sure to take the necessary precautions to avoid serious injury. One of the most important things to remember when hunting is to always hunt with a buddy. Before you leave home, make sure to let others know exactly where you'll be hunting, when you plan to return, and who is hunting with you. When using a tree stand, always wear a fall arrest system or full body harness, meeting the tree stand manufacturer's association standards. Nationally, one in three hunting injuries involve a tree stand, and 82% of these accidents were the result of hunters not using a fall restraint system. When attaching a full body harness, make sure to follow the manufacturer's instruction. Improper installation may result in suspension without the ability to recover. Remember, if you do fall, remain calm and seek help immediately or implement your escape plan. If you have to hang suspended for a period of time, exercise your legs by pushing against the tree or doing any other form of continuous motion. Prolonged suspension and failure to recover in a timely manner could result in serious injury or death. In addition, always select the proper tree for use with your tree stand. An important reminder is to never attach your tree stand to a dead tree. Instead, select a live straight tree that fits within the size limits recommended in your tree stand instructions. Another important reminder is to always carry emergency signal devices such as a cell phone, walkie-talkie, whistle or flashlight on you at all times and within reach if you are suspended. In addition, always carry a knife or other suspension relief devices and think through an escape plan. When climbing into your tree stand, always use a haul line to pull up your gear and unloaded firearm or bow. Never climb with anything in your hands or on your back. Prior to descending, lower your gear on the opposite side of the tree. Another important reminder is to never use homemade stands or make modifications to purchase tree stands. When hunting, it's also very important to remember to use proper gun safety measures. Your firearm should never be pointed towards anything that you don't intend on shooting. There's no such thing as an unloaded weapon and every firearm should be treated as a loaded weapon. Also, when being handed a firearm in the field, always assume the gun is loaded. Even if someone tells you it's unloaded. When taking a shot, always be sure of what's in front of you and what's beyond your target. If you cannot see what lies beyond your target, a good rule of thumb is do not take the shot. When carrying any firearm, your finger should never be inside the trigger guard unless you're ready to shoot. This is a big problem we see with inexperienced shooters. Finally, one of the most important things to remember is to never use alcohol or other drugs when you're hunting. The bottom line is you should never carry a loaded firearm when your judgment is impaired. We at MidMichigan care about your safety this hunting season, so remember to hunt responsibly and make sure to take the necessary precautions to avoid serious injury.


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So, let us say this is earth, okay, the earth has radius of earth and mass of earth Me, okay. Now let us say this is the path along which I am moving an object, okay. So, suppose I am going from this point, point number 1 to point number 2, okay. This distance is let us say r1, okay, and that distance from the center I am finding the distance, okay. This distance is r2, right. Now can you use this definition of potential energy which is delta u is equal to minus of negative of the work done by the gravity force to find the change in potential energy. Between point 1 and 2, so this will be delta u, delta u is what? u2 minus u1, okay and try to use this formula, work done is integral of f dot dr, okay. This f is the force of gravitation, alright. Now try to do it on your own quickly, distances are very large, so you cannot say gravitation force is mg, because g itself is changing. How much is the gravitational force? The value of gravitational force at a distance of r is how much? Let us say mass is m, this is small m, how much is the gravitational force? gm into mass of earth, okay, divided by r square, okay. This is the gravitational force, all of you clear about it, okay. See change is always final minus initial, does not matter delta u, delta x, delta y, delta t, whatever it is, it will be always final minus initial, fine. This is the gravitational force, isn't it? So the work done by the gravitational force is integral of this into dr, r1 to r2. Is this correct? Something like this, is this correct? Is this the work done? No, there is a mistake, there is a mistake over here, can you tell me what is a mistake? This is an error, the direction of force is like this, and you are moving in this direction, okay, there is a dot product between force and displacement, okay. You are moving in opposite direction of the direction of force, so that is a negative sign will come in, okay. So what you have done is, you have taken a random point at a distance of r, found out the gravitational force, and you have assumed a small displacement along this path, let us say this distance is dr, okay. So you can assume that for that small distance dr, you can assume force is constant, because dr is very, very small, okay. So force is not constant, it keeps on changing the distance r, but for small dr, you can assume that force is a constant. So for dr amount of movement, you can find the work done as simply force into dr displacement, because dr, you can assume force is constant for that dr, okay. And then you need to integrate that total work done, okay. This is a usual question, they ask you in schools, derive the expression for potential energy for the gravitation in case of this kind of scenario, okay. Switching the limits, should you have, if you switch the limits, yeah, that is correct, what are you saying. You will learn about it later on, but right now let us keep it simple only. No doubts till now, right? Alright, integral of dr by r square, what it is, integral of dr by r square is minus of 1 by r, okay. So we are going from r1 to r2, fine. So limits are from r1 to r2. So this will give you the minus, minus gets neutralized, it is a multiplication. So this will be gm Me by r2 minus of gm Me by r1, okay. So this is what work done by the conservative force, fine. And how the potential energy was defined? Change in potential energy which is u2 minus u1 is negative of the work done by the conservative force, right. So minus of gm Me by r2, okay, minus of minus gm Me by r1, okay. This is u2 minus u1, okay. Now can you tell me what is u2 and what is u1? All of you tell me what is u1 and what is u2? Okay, can I say that u2 is this? Can I say that u2 is minus of gm Me by r2? Is this correct? Others quickly type in, my simple question is, is this correct? Saying like this, is it correct? This is not correct, okay. This is not correct, all right, fine, all right, this is not correct. But when I say potential energy is mgh, when I say potential energy is mgh, in work by energy chapter when we said potential energy is mgh, we always assume zero is something and compared to that zero, the potential energy is mgh, okay. So we never found out the absolute potential energy, we first assumed what is zero and then compared to that potential energy, we say it is mgh and whatever is the case, okay. And hence in this case also, we need to define what is zero potential energy, okay. But the problem is that now it is not just about earth surface, are you getting it? We are talking about stars, we are talking about planets, we are talking about interaction between sun and other planets. So I cannot say that let us assume zero potential energy as a surface of the earth, fine. It has to be something which is unique to everything, all right. So that is the reason why we need to define the zero potential energy in a very careful manner so that that is universal, okay. So let us try to do that. Let's say R2 is tending towards infinity. If R2 tends towards infinity, this term will go towards zero, okay. So I can say that u infinity minus u1 is equal to minus of or plus of gmme by R1, okay. Now till now we haven't assumed anything, all right. Now if you assume, okay, if you assume u infinity to be zero, then you can say that potential energy at 0.1 is minus of gmme by R1, okay. So when you say that this is a potential energy between the two masses m and capital Me, you already assumed that the potential energy between these two masses will be zero when they are separated by an infinite distance, okay. So write it down in your notebook that the zero potential energy, the zero potential energy is a situation in which the masses are separated by infinite distances, fine. So in work by energy chapter, you try to, I mean, depending on what kind of problem it is, you always try to find out where appropriately you can define zero potential energy, right. Every time you define zero potential energy in work by energy chapter. But in gravitation chapter, there is this unique situation in which gravitation potential energy is zero. You don't need to define every time every new problem what is zero gravitation potential energy. Here we are assuming that gravitation potential energy is a situation in which the two masses are infinitely separated from each other. Is this thing clear to all of you? Any doubts till now? Anything? Okay. All right. So what we have learned just now is the potential energy between the two masses is minus of gmme by R, okay. So this is the potential energy between two point masses or two uniform spheres separated by a distance R, okay. So once you define the potential energy, you can use the work energy theorem anywhere you may want to, okay. Now understand one thing that this is negative. There is a negative sign over here. So if R decreases, what will happen to potential energy? It will increase or decrease. Potential energy will increase or decrease if R decreases, correct. Potential energy will go down, okay. So earlier if it is let us say minus 100 joule, if you decrease the R, it may become minus 200. So minus 200 is less than minus 100, fine. There is a negative sign over there, all right. And also you need to remember few things like potential energy. You got this formula. This formula is valid for only two masses, fine. But then there can be multiple masses, okay. For example, this situation, all of you draw this. Suppose you have a square, okay. This is a square. Let us say you have four masses, masses M and the distance between the adjacent masses is A. It is a square, all right. Can you find out the potential energy of this system, okay. The formula you have is only for two masses. But right now you have four masses, okay. Now can you try to find out the potential energy of the given arrangement? Quickly do that. The hint is you can take two masses at a time and add all the potential energy, okay. Potential energy is a scalar quantity, okay. You do not need to worry about directions and all. You have four masses. Yes, you need to take care of diagonals as well. Potential energy will be potential energy between one and two. Potential energy between two and three. Between three and four. Four and one. One and three and two and four, okay. These kind of combinations can be there. In fact, you can easily apply the combinatorics. Four C2 is six, no. Six combinations will be there, okay. Now U12 is equal to U23, U34, U41. So just find out one and multiply with four. So this will be equal to minus of four times GM square by A. This is equal to sum of these four, okay. Then you need to take care of the diagonal ones as well, okay. You need to take care of the diagonal ones, these two and those two. You may think that I have already counted mass two. How can it have an energy with four? I have already counted two with one, two with three. How come it has with four also? The point is, it doesn't matter how many masses are around. The forces between the fourth and the second one is unaffected by what are the masses around? Between these two masses, the force will be GM1M2 by R square. And because of that force, only the potential energy is coming in, right? So it doesn't matter how many masses are around. You can always count one mass multiple times when you are talking about the potential energy, fine? Now potential energy between one and three is what? Between one and three, the distance is A root two, okay. The diagonal length is A root two. This is A, this is A. The distance between one and three is A root two. Same is the case with two and four as well. So these two are equal. So you can say that minus of two times GM square divided by A root two, fine? And then you can simplify it further. You can say that root two cancels a little bit like this. So minus of four plus root two GM square by A. Any doubts till now? Anything? Anything you want to ask? No doubts? No doubts. Okay. You need to now find out, find out the work done to create the system. This is a system I'm talking about. You are creating this system by bringing these masses from infinity. So initially they are separated infinitely apart, okay? So you're bringing these masses from infinity and making this arrangement, okay? Now in order to make this arrangement, how much work is done by you is what you need to find out. Properly solve it, okay? Properly solve it. Use work energy theorem. So whenever someone is asking you to find the work done, immediately this should come in your mind. Work energy theorem, okay? We are talking about the work done to create the system, okay? The first point is when the masses are infinitely separated from each other, right? And our gravitation potential energy will be zero. If masses are infinitely separated from each other, gravitation potential energy is zero. U1 is zero initially when they are at infinity. Even K1 is infinity. And then you are bringing them slowly, okay? So finally when they are static like this, then also K2 is zero, okay? So whatever work you need to do is equal to the final potential energy itself, okay? So you need to actually do the negative work, okay? You need to do this much work, whatever is a potential energy to build the system, to create the system. So work done is equal to potential energy itself. Is this thing clear to all of you? Any doubts? No doubts? Now find out work done to destroy the system. Destroying the system means you're taking these masses from this system and placing it in infinity. So totally dismantling the system from wherever you have brought it. Work done will be negative. Yes, because the forces are attractive, right? So they are trying to come close to each other. You have to move slowly. So you need to apply force in opposite direction of the attraction. So that is why your direction of force is in opposite direction of the displacement. So that is why work done will be negative. Now work done to destroy is how much? Now your initial point is this and final point is infinity, okay? So the work done which is equal to U2 plus K2 minus U1 plus K1, okay? So first point is this and second point is infinity. So U2 is zero, K2 is zero, K1 is zero. So the work done will be negative of the potential energy, right? So these kind of questions are very common in school exams, all right?  These things are in a way they're trying to ask the same thing as in what is the potential energy of the system. So depending on that, you will need to do some amount of work to destroy it or to create it, all right? So whenever like there is a question in school where they're trying to ask you or they're asking you how much work is done to create a system, first step is to find the potential energy of the system, okay? And the next step is to use the work energy theorem, okay? So these are straightforward questions which are routinely asked in school. No doubt still now, right? Nothing.


Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to this non-farm payrolls webinar on Friday 84th of March 2016. Welcome. My name is Michael Houston. For those of you who don't know me, I'm going to be co-hosting this presentation with my colleague in Toronto, Colin Suzinski. Say hi, Colin. Good morning, everybody. I just have to do a little couple of housekeeping rules first and foremost before we get started, namely the risk warning. So anything that you hear from Colin or myself is not intended to be direct trading advice. There is always a risk trading financial markets. Markets can go up as well as down, all of that sort of stuff. But ultimately what we will try and do is try and give you a steer as to how to interpret the numbers. And I think that more than anything I think is what markets are looking for today. We've seen a significant rebound this week. In fact, over the last three weeks we've seen some fairly decent gains in global stock markets from those February the 11th lows. And now ultimately what we really need to decide I think is whether or not these gains can be sustainable because certainly from what we've seen thus far it's been very, very tricky to gauge whether or not this is what I would call a little bit of a bear market rebound or whether we're actually at the start of another bull market. So first and foremost before we do get started let's look at the headline numbers and let's look at what markets are looking to price in. Because at the moment we're looking for a number in the region of 190,000 for non-farm payrolls which is this number here. Now last month we saw a significant miss. We're expecting a number in the region of 225,000 and we came in 151. Now I'm expecting a little bit of a revision higher and I think my colleague Colin is as well. And I'm going to pass you over to him so that he can articulate as to why he thinks is going to be a little bit of a rebound. I've been doing a lot of research into January and February and what happens with non-farm payrolls between the two months. And I've looked back to the turn of the century and the one thing that's come out of it is that January and February are consistently inconsistent. You don't usually see a strong number two months in a row or a really terrible number two months in a row. You usually get one bad and one good. And we had some weakness in January and we had a big storm in the U.S. in January and February, I still think we could get a bit of a bounce here. The weather through most of North America was pretty good in February. Thanks to El Nino, it's been a pretty nice winter here overall. So I do think there's potential for a bit of a rebound in February plus some of the U.S. economic numbers that have come out over the last little while have been reasonably good as well. So I think we could get a bit of a bounce here. I'm looking for a number of 220 which is a little above the street at 190. I'm also thinking we'll get a 20,000 upward revision to January. In terms of looking at the numbers and how I think markets will react on the headline number, it's important to remember the Fed has split itself into three factions over the last four weeks, six weeks or so. You've got the other side that's looked at a lot of the numbers that have come out and said, well, gee, the things aren't going as well as we thought. Maybe we better hold off on raising rates further. Then you've got the hawkish side that says, well, this is what always happens when we start raising rates to the blow over. We should stay the course. And then you've got a larger group in the middle that's kind of saying, well, let's see. We'll look at the data and see what happens. Well, this is one of the last big data points before the Fed meeting on March the 16th. So this is a key one for them and to see which way we'll go. So my thinking is below 100, definitely you're going to see a rate hike get put off. Above 250 makes a rate hike in January emerge much more likely. And somewhere in the middle leaves the whole thing mushy and murky is how I'm seeing it for the headline number. And Michael, you had some thoughts on the wage data? I did. I think the headline number is neither here nor there. I don't think it's really going to sway the argument one way or the other. The unemployment rate's already below 5%. It's a 4.9. I think it's the wage data more than anything else that Mark is really going to focus on the average earnings data. And in January, we saw an annualized up to 2.5%. But more importantly than that, we also saw the monthly rate jump to 0.5%. And that's borne out by the market calendar data items that we've got here. And in particular, this particular number here, average earnings month on month, they jumped from 0.5% in January. Now the reason they did that was similar sort of thing that we had in 2015. A lot of US states raised their minimum wage by a significant amount. But ultimately after that, wages then started to slip back. So what I'll be looking for from this month's numbers is to see whether or not we get a monthly move higher of the same sort of magnitude that we got in January. I suspect we won't. People are speculating about a March rate rise being on the table. I think if it is on the table, it'll be gathering dust. I really do not think that the Federal Reserve will risk raising rates in March given the volatility that we've seen over the last three months. Having come off a rate rise in December, we've seen a massive yo-yo bounce in markets. And at the moment, I think the Fed is going to be very, very cautious about feeding into that. And certainly given the comments by Mr. Dudley of the New York Fed, who's a governor and a permanent voting member, I don't think he's going to find it that difficult to get other FOMC members on board with respect to delaying a rate rise. Certainly, Lael Brainard is another dove. Janet Yellen is fairly well aligned with Lael Brainard. And ultimately, I think whatever the number is, it's likely that the Fed will hold off a rate rise until June at the earliest. I know Mark is surprising out a rate rise pretty much to the end of the year. I think it pays to be a little bit cautious about that. I still think the dollar's topped out. And we can't forget that we've got an ECB rate meeting next week. And the Draghi or certainly ECB policy makers that have been playing down the prospect of a shock and awe type response when they meet next Thursday. And I think that could actually lend a slightly positive bias to Eurodollar. But let's talk about the headline number and what a good number and a bad number would give in terms of the overall dollar reaction and stock market reaction. So I'm going to start with the S&P. I know Colin has got a particular interest in that as well. But certainly we are at a very, very key level in the context of the S&P. We're just below that 2000 level. Now look at that 2011 level. How well this level active is support on the way down around about 1995-2000. We've seen this is a daily chart we're looking at. The oscillators very overbought. Doesn't necessarily mean we can't go any higher. But I would certainly say the bias here is more to the downside than the upside. Let's not say that we can't hit the 200 day moving average, which currently sits here at 2020. But ultimately, I think it's going to be very, very difficult to see a significant rebound through this 2000 level. Having said that, this pattern here, we've seen a significant breakout in the S&P. And certainly on the basis of this potential double bottom, we could well go higher. But ultimately, there's going to be a massive area of resistance through this area between 1995 and 2000. And I think if you do fail at 2000, you'll probably get that retest of that breakout point. That is a classic base building pattern there, that double bottom. And something we have seen across the markets was that the base building patterns that have come in over the last month or so have been pretty strong. And they've been across a wide variety of markets. You'll see them in copper, you'll see them in S&P, you'll see them in oil, and you'll see them elsewhere. And it's a matter now of, are the markets ready to go up out of this? Or is this a false thing where we're going to see them roll back over? What will be key is which way does the S&P go out of this range? Up over 2000, you're looking like a fairly good move to the upside, at least in the 200 day downside. Pull back today, you're looking at a retest of that breakout point. So what's going to drive that? Well, at the moment Brent Crude and WTI have been driving it. So let's look at Brent, because we've seen a significant breakout on Brent prices, and certainly the bias does appear to be towards the upside. We've broken that downtrend line from the October highs, and we can see that there. And now we are trending quite a bit higher. The thing that bothers me about this particular pattern here is it looks like an ascending wedge. And yes, we have broken higher, but ultimately we've got to be looking at the next level of resistance, which is round about these peaks here. So you're looking at around about $38, $39 a barrel on Brent. Certainly if you look at it on a weekly chart, again we've seen a significant move higher, third successive week higher. Certainly the momentum does appear to be with Brent. So what's going to drive Brent higher, a weaker dollar? Because I can't imagine that it's going to be anything else. I suppose it could be a decent payrolls number, but a decent payrolls number could actually give us a stronger dollar because of the prospect that it brings a rate rise ever closer. So there's an awful lot of moving parts in the context of this particular move. And one thing that does bother me ever so slightly about this particular move higher in equity markets is gold. If risk appetite is returning, why is gold breaking up? And let's look at gold. It's starting to tick lower a little bit at the moment. And to my mind it does appear to be a little bit toppy on that basis, but certainly I think you've got a view on gold, don't you Colin? Yeah, this seems to me, I'm really curious to see how gold reacts today because I've been trying to figure out, is this a real breakout or is this a buying climax? As you can see the stochastics are showing overbought. We've broken out to a new high, but at the same time now we're seeing it, we are seeing it start to drift back a little bit. Could we get a key reversal day here? Or are we going to get confirmation of this breakout? And it's really interesting because gold has been acting on a couple of things. That first big rally up in January was a lot of that was driven by defensive flows off the market volatility. But since then we've seen, the end did too, but since then we've seen the NP can start to go back the other way. Gold has been climbing, gold broke out of a symmetrical triangle, which is a consolidation pattern. It's broken out over its previous high, which was 1262. If it holds that it confirms the breakout. If it starts falling back under that or back towards 1250, then you've got a buying climax and a key reversal and this whole thing could start to roll over. So we're keeping an eye on that today. The other question I've been asking myself is with gold is relative to the US dollar. How much of this move was weakness in the US dollar? If it's US dollar driven and gold's going up, that means people are expecting a poor note, they're expecting no rate hike in March. On the other hand, is this being driven by the fact that you've got negative interest rates in Europe, negative interest rates in Japan. And with the exception of the US dollar, the world's pretty dovish out there. And has that taken over again? Because there was a few years where gold traded more related to the euro than the US dollar. Then 30 year and a half ago, it went back to the dollar. So there's a number of factors at play in the gold market. We'll be watching play out as we go through the data today. And just we've got two minutes to the thing. So I just wanted to tell you one thing. We've got a big discrepancy between bond markets and currency markets. Bond markets as Michael said are pricing in no rate hike this year. Currency markets are pricing in multiple rate hikes this year with the US dollar still sitting just below 100 on the index. And at some point, you're going to see some kind of adjustment between the two and probably a fairly violent one. And so it's possible that this is one of the things that could drive that would be the how the markets respond to today's payrolls report. Okay, so let's quickly have a look at some of the key levels on cable and euro dollar because I think there's a potential for a little bit of a cable turnaround. And certainly a sterling turnaround, particularly against euro sterling. Big level on the top side on cables 142, 2030. Why do I think that? Simply because it was a significant area of support on the way down. But also it was the May 2010 lows. Certainly the move that we've seen off the lows thus far this week does appear to suggest that potentially we could be near a short term peak and it's going to take something quite significant to push us through 142 30. So I think the risk is more to the downside than the upside in cable. Similarly, I think in euro dollar that's not to say that I don't think it's going to go higher. But what I do think is that because we're so close to a number of key moving average resistances, I think a positive number, a positive dollar number, so a positive non farm payrolls number could provoke a little bit of a sell off in euro, a little bit of a sell off in cable. But ultimately it really depends on the number. But I think given the gains that we've seen thus far in euro and sterling this week, I think the bias is for a little bit of a pullback in the interim before a push back higher again. So the support level is on cable. I'm going to be looking at around about 140 80, which was the breakout level on the way back up 140 80 90. And on euro dollar around about 109 20 dolly and similar sort of thing here. We're in a range in dolly and it's difficult to say which way we're going to go. But a positive dollar number should see dolly and shoot higher to back towards those highs around about 114 90. And on the downside, potentially good support around about 113 and a half. But there is potential that it could be forming a double bottom on dolly and I'm not convinced that it is. But ultimately, given where we are at the moment, the bias doesn't appear to be more to the upside than the downside simply because we're in a little bit of a range. And we are near the top end of the range. And we're starting to squeeze higher already ahead of those numbers. So keep an eye on the headline numbers 0.2 for average earnings. Below that is going to be negative dollar 190 K non farm payrolls and 4.9% the unemployment rate. And look at our average earnings. That's really bad. But look at the non farm payrolls 242. So that's fairly good number. But it's the payrolls number. This is the average earnings numbers. And look at the way dolly ends just spiked up on the headline payrolls. But we're back down again because those average earnings numbers are disappointing. And I think that's going to be dollar negative. That is what markets will focus on. And that's essentially I think what is happening at the moment. A lot to digest at the moment. Unemployment rate is at 4.9. 242. It's the previous I think that I've done about the revision there. I haven't seen a revision to the 20 key upward revision to 172 Michael was 172. Thank you for that Colin. No problem. So so all in all the headline numbers for the payrolls fairly positive. But those average earnings numbers I think could well cap any upside in as a dollar certainly in the context of any decision that the Federal Reserve make with respect to an interest rate rise. I think they're still going to be concerned about the lackluster nature of wage growth. And as I suspected the spike that we saw in the January average earnings number was not sustained into February. Certainly we're going to have a look at the upside in dolly end. But I do not think that we will find it able to sustain a move higher. So it doesn't suggest to me that we're going to be anywhere near close to a rate rise at the moment. And certainly the bomb markets are reflecting that even if the FX markets aren't at this point in time. So got a little bit of a sell off in the euro dollar. Not really too much of a surprise. Overall I don't think it changes too much the outlook for a weaker dollar long term or in the medium term. But at the moment when we look at the 4-hour slow stochastic I think the bias for the moment it does appear to be towards a move back to the mid-108s before another leg higher. I would be very, very surprised if we sunk significantly below the lows that we saw at the beginning of this week. But certainly on the basis of this chart here I think this more likely will see a drift back down in euro dollar. But as far as interest rate expectations are concerned I really don't think that it shifted the dial that much. And don't forget we also have the ECB rate meeting next week. So I think that is also going to weigh on the upside in the context of euro dollar. So 1-10 on the upside euro dollar I think will probably drift back down. Similar sort of story with respect to cable. Let's have a quick look at Aussie dollar because I think that's particularly significant in the context of the rebound that we've seen in the commodity sector. And we have broken above the 200-day moving average which actually is a fairly positive development. And we've also broken above these series of peaks through October and November. So there's definitely a positive development in Aussie dollar in the context of the commodity price rally that we've seen over the course of the past few days and weeks. And overall I think looking at this particular chart here again it's going to be particularly difficult to sustain a significant move higher in the short term. But overall what these all these charts tell me is that this dollar I think is likely to continue to remain weak and potentially it's probably a sell on rally story for the US dollar as opposed to buy on the dips. There's another factor weighing on my view with respect to dolly yen. I think dolly yen can go an awful lot lower over the course of the next few weeks and months on the basis of this chart here. And this is something that I covered in a video a few weeks ago. We broke out of a very long term uptrend earlier this year. Broke through this neckline at 116, 115, 95. And if we project downwards that really brings us all the way back to 106. But we have to put it in the context of this move took place over the course of a 12-month period. So over the course of the next 12 months I think it's entirely possible that dolly yen can go back to 106. So what does that mean for the overall outlook with respect to the US dollar? It suggests to me that the US dollar is likely to remain slightly softer.  Also what we're finding here is finding an awful lot of resistance between 115 and 116 as well. So I would expect to see more sideways range trading over the course of the next few days and weeks and for dolly yen to drift lower as we head towards the end of the year. And let's not forget we've got the US presidential election and all the fun and games that goes with that. And ultimately that's going to I think weigh on the dollar as well. Because if you've got a fight between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump then I think the attractions of being long of dollars may well start to diminish somewhat the closer we get to the November story. So all of those political factors are likely to weigh on the dollar over the course of the next few weeks and months. Before I move on to some other charts is there anything that you guys out there would like me to cover for you in the short to medium term? Otherwise I will move on to the DAX. Again similar sort of story here. What we're looking for is a significant resistance, test of this resistance level around about just below the 10,000 level. So we've got this level here, put that in there, put that in there. Looks like we're trading around about 9,905. So that's a bit of a level there. Let me just remove that because I missed that high. You know that's not quite perfect but that's actually looking a bit like a reverse head and shoulders there isn't it? It is, yeah, yeah it is. So again it's a similar sort of potential reversal pattern on the DAX on the Germany 30. We just had a quick pop above 6,200 on the FTSE but we've come back below it again. Let's look at the previous high there. We had a little bit of a flotation with it earlier this week on the future at 6,212 that happened in the Asia Trading Session for the FTSE. So again it's having a little bit of a look at the top side there but again be aware that the 200 day moving average is starting to come into play in a similar sort of way as the S&P and again let's have a quick look at the S&P again. 2003 was that resistance line that I drew in through those lows in November and yeah we did have a little bit of a flotation through it in December but ultimately we weren't able to sustain and move through it. So I think for the S&P to sustain and move higher we really need to push back through towards the 200 day moving average and I'm skeptical that we can do that at this point in time. Was there something that you wanted to look at on the Canadian dollar coin? Sure let's bring that up a little. Can you bring up gold first because I want to have another talk about that now that we're asking the data because that's kind of a big reversal downward. Yeah I mean gold's reversed downwards which is somewhat surprising but I think people are focusing on the headline payrolls now but for me it's not a great rapport. Well I think it's reasonably okay and at this point when it interests me about gold as you've had this spake up it's coming back down now you can see the big negative divergence there in the stochastic this is looking like a buying climax. Your breakout point was 12.62 you've rejected you've gone back under that so you couldn't hold it and you've got gold back at 12.50 which is the next support level so that's that's quite a significant quite a significant reversal here and that could become a key reversal at the end of the day if gold doesn't doesn't start to rebound soon. It's going to have to go quite it's going to have to go some to be a key day reversal because with a key day reversal ladies and gents what we've got to do is you've got to close below that yeah you've got to wait to go on that. You've got to close below the open of the previous candle or the previous bar so the open is displayed over here in the top left hand corner so the open of that chart there is 12.40 $1,240 an ounce we're currently looking at 12.50 $12.53 $12.54 so we need to drop at least another $15 an ounce to post a key day reversal and a key day reversal is when the market makes a higher high the day after which is done but then needs to close basically down here where my cursor is around about the 12.35 between 12.35 and 12.40 and that's what we call a key day reversal or a bearish engulfing pattern. Now I can give you a better example of that with respect to euro sterling because this is a chart that I did earlier this week on Tuesday we look at euro sterling on the daily this is the daily chart here and we can see that we've declined pretty much five days in a row and now we've had a couple of minor rebounds but if we look at it on the weekly chart this is a not quite a beautiful example of a key day reversal but what it does do is we've had this strong move higher last week and then we've pretty much reversed it completely and now what we need to do is break below $76.90 and that's really the low of two weeks ago and if we actually blow it all the way out you know is this a potential for maybe some form of potential double top or maybe we're going to get some form of head and shoulders reversal what we don't want to do is break back above this trend line here which we've broken out of or go back above the 78 level this move higher it looks to have given up the ghost it's still marvelly positive but the key level really sits around here at $76.90 I'm just going to basically underline it for you but certainly the first indication that we could be seeing a little bit of a reversal in euro sterling would be a break of $76.90 on the downside which is basically this this low here and this low here that we saw two days ago but certainly on the basis of the weekly chart I think the bias has now shifted for euro sterling maybe the worst of sterling losses is lower I think it's a difficult call to make and certainly I would be a little bit worried about going longer sterling against the dollar but I would be less worried about going longer sterling against the euro despite market expectations that somehow they think the ECB will raise rates before the Bank of England personally I think I think that's laughable that the market can somehow think that the Bank of England or the ECB is going to raise rates before the Bank of England I think that's very unlikely given what's going on and the other thing is a lot of the weakness in the pound was was totally overblown on the on the Brexit risks last week and and so you're seeing that top out against the euro and that could be the bigger trade with with the US potentially going its own way and strengthening here against some of the other markets I think Michael's right you could if you're looking particularly at that dynamic you're looking more at the euro pound at this point okay so that's a euro sterling let's have a quick look at euro yen because I think that's important in the context of the easing policies of the respective central banks so depending on obviously what what we see next week out of out of the ECB this pan here looks to be quite a nice potential box reversal let's basically do that to a four hour chart and what we've got here is a nice resistance level all the way through 125 we've got a nice little uptrend there now is that an upside is that an inverse head and shoulders or is that a potential double bottom it's too hard to say but certainly in the context of this particular move here there's a good area of resistance through 125 and potentially we could see a move back to this trend line here potentially we could even see a move back to around about 123 but certainly 124 123 the bias does appear to be towards the downside again the oscillator again is starting to roll over which would seem to suggest that euro weakness is likely to prevail over the yen over the course of the next few sessions particularly if we break this line here got any comments on that Colin I know this is looking like a really nice beat and I mean it's a question of is it a is it a double bottom with an ascending triangle or a head and shoulders but also look at the stochastic you got really oversold on the stochastic and that has turned up really nicely as well so you've got a a good momentum build behind it and it's not like some of these markets that we saw over the last month or so where that will go screaming higher for five eight percent gains like the kind of thing we were getting in in Crudewell in particular where you were sitting there wondering well is this short covering or is this legitimate and but something like this is looking pretty legitimate for a base building pattern okay so that's that's the euro yen so that does appear to suggest that potentially there is scope for us to move higher but ultimately I think with this resistance here at 125 it's going to take something significant and the fact this is turning over for that to happen which means that we're probably going to drift lower first okay anything else does anyone else want us to look at a a market that we haven't covered yet any questions use the chat facility here I've just sent a message any questions here that should be any questions here sorry about my typing that's called my lunchtime typing I'm a bit hungry at the moment haven't had any lunch so yeah as I'm looking here at the markets well just before we wrap up we're seeing the Dow has the Dow popped up to 17,000 has started to struggle S&P popped up to 2,000 has started to struggle so they've had a bit of a move up but they haven't really been able to get too much further yet they're sitting there digesting it the Crudewell same thing we're seeing it that's up a little bit we've got WTI sitting on 3350-60 right at a at a resistance level as well so we're bumping up against ground numbers we're bumping up against resistance but we're not seeing any to really go through at this point in time and even gold has bounced up off of the 1250 and it's hanging around just below 1260 at this point right just been asked about sterling yin that looks quite interesting actually because again it suggests that we're going to get a bit of a sterling reversal that looks like a bullish and golfing week but again it really depends on where we close tonight but ultimately I think that ties in with my slightly stronger sterling narrative at the moment we've got good resistance coming in around about 182 but ultimately I think here I think the narrative really is in the same way for euro sterling is to buy sterling depths and I know that feels dangerous but ultimately I think Dolly ends in a range and I think cable's got potentially more upside than Dolly end so yeah we could see a little bit of sterling weakness in the short term and sterling end back to around about 160 certainly in the case of this low here and obviously the low for yesterday and if we look if we look at the four hour chart that pretty much bears it out we're probably we could probably drift back down here but overall again I think I think we could well have seen a short term base in sterling I think most of the bad news is out there and I think it's unrealistic to think the cable will continue to fall between now and June in a straight line I think we're going to get we're going to get term interim bouts of sterling short squeezes and as anyone who's traded cable or sterling nose as I have in the past when cable rallies it tends to rip your face off so I certainly think that there's a good chance of that that might happen and it's certainly worth bearing in mind if you're looking to keep you know if you're looking to sell sterling rallies I think that's probably the weaker side of the trade we've talked about sterling dollar again I think we could drift lower towards around about 140 80 90 because you should find a few bits around there with resistance of 140 42 20 142 30 if you if you want if you want to look at my analysis on various instruments I put them on the chart forums so in the case of cable here I've used this chart here and basically described where I think it's going to go continue to edge higher after breaking about 140 80 yesterday stabilization processes continuing this break could well see us head back towards 142 20 30 which is obviously that resistance level through there in the May 2010 lows but the risk does remain from move towards the 2009 low at 135 while below 142 20 142 30 and with respect to the three green soldiers are you talking about the four hour chart that I was just looking at just a few minutes ago you know who you are I'm not going to mention you by name but I'm guessing that's I'm guessing that I'm guessing that's who you mean or are we looking or are we looking at or are we talking about the daily yeah the four hour chart okay right I would suggest not no certainly not in certainly not in that context I think we are we're seeing a little bit of a consolidation and I think we're probably going to drift back towards these lows here where you got the Ichimoku Ichimoku support so if I draw a line through them there we've got a series of loads through there around about 160 but that also happens to coincide with obviously that low there so you've got you've got a what I would call a congestion area around about 160 and okay the daily you're talking about the daily okay so we'll go back to the daily yeah you could argue that the only problem I have with that is that the middle candle here it's not it's not as full as I would like it to be with three green soldiers you really need three candles of a similar length and a similar height and ultimately well that's a fairly decent one there and that's a fairly decent one there that one's not so you know again I'll be looking at the 160 level to sort of get an indication as to where we go to next and if we drop below 160 then obviously we could find support around about 159 but you know my bias still remains for my bias remains towards the fact that sterling is oversold I just don't buy into this narrative that the bottom is going to fall out of it between now and June now that may change if the narrative changes out of the respective camps but ultimately if you look at the data there's been a slowdown in Europe there's been a slowdown in the UK and there's been a little bit of a slowdown in the US so it's a question of how much you think is priced in and I think a lot of risk is priced in hope that helps guys all right okay so unless anyone has any other questions Colin and I are going to wrap this up we will put it on YouTube in the next 24 hours if anyone any of you want to go back and listen to it otherwise we both like to thank you for your time and hopefully see you


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