So you have been doing this every day, multiple webinars? At least one to two every day. So yeah, it's quite interesting these days. That's how you get to talk to everybody. Mom, we are live. Well, good afternoon everyone and most welcome to the webinar that we are having today which is with Mr. Kanwaljeet Singh. As we all know that Mr. Kanwaljeet Singh who leads fireside ventures in India is one of the most veteran investors who has probably understood the consumer product industry much ahead than anybody else from an investment standpoint. You know, he's been with helium earlier and you know he's done a lot of work and I think primarily I have always felt and I've looked up to him in, you know, in his earliest days and I always read about what he talked about. But what I really realized about him was that you know how clearly he understood the CPG and the FMCG industry. And you know how going forward, that could be a great industry. I mean, I know that when we talk about startups when we talk about the digital world we always think of very technology based businesses. But you know they're also shaping up is the new world of FMCG new kind of CPG products which Mr. Kanwaljeet Singh has done a lot of work on and they've also been one of the great investors who's building new FMCG for India. So welcome today Mr. Singh. We're delighted to have you over here today at Entrepreneur India's capital insider which is ready to understand you know from the capital from the investor side as to what is happening in the space. What is happening in the sector and you know where investments will go. So let me start you know we're living in strange times today indeed you know I mean when we talk about business everybody's on predictability mode but it's very hard to tell as to how things will really take place. So you know I would like to ask you this that if you were to look at the consumer behavior today and the way the consumer behavior is changing today. How would you rate or how would you make some predictions about how what kind of products or what kind of investments you would look at as an investor keeping that consumer behavior in mind. Thanks Situ. My pleasure to be here and you know I think there is so much of dynamism out there that you know we used to say every quarter things change now every week things are changing. So it's been like I said strange time but I think the fundamental belief for us at Fireside for me and a lot of people we talk to is that what will come out of this and hopefully you know COVID will go away one day whether it's six months or one year. And we have to just be positive and expect that you know we will come out of this stronger will actually be a very interesting opportunity for consumer brands and that's really the focus for us. Now your question is a very you know I would say it encompasses everything so let me break it down into a few smaller bites as you media guys tend to say but you know happy to then go deeper into any particular aspect. So let's start with the consumer behavior. I think what is two or three things have got highlighted which are very very I would say seminal trends and which will change the consumption patterns and the way people consume products. First of all comfort with digital transactions. I think that has been almost like the default for everybody in the country because of the lockdown because of constraints on you know public places and shops not being open. So whether it was the you know classic e-commerce players whether it was the hyper local players Ricky and you know Clap and others or it was the like new players who sprung up like people like House Joy and store say etc. Or even the local retailers who are allowed to operate doing some kind of you know to offer a WhatsApp based solution and then you know we can go deeper into this later but now with this whole geo and Facebook partnership. I think that's another interesting dimension. So one behavioral trend we believe is that once people have experienced the convenience the choices the ease of access using digital means of commerce. I think that trend will not go back just because public service people will step out people will go to local retail is not that it will become a zero one game. So that is one behavioral change. I think second one is all of us for last 60 days have been at home. So this whole you know experience at home as a almost a new way of living is probably going to become a very much more every day or every part of our life kind of a trend. So while yes everything will open up at some point but we have got used to you know certain things that are going to be nice word I read somewhere called nesting and it's called the nesting economy. So anything you do at home in a way you know people are called it nesting. So whether it's work from home whether it's cook at home whether it's you know experience with the family together at home whether it's you know doing other activities at home Zoom calls. So that whole experience at home as a category is going to spin a lot of new interesting opportunities for branched and then the last piece I believe which will be we were chatting about this while ago is it is going to be a significant or a significant consumer desire to consume what they would trust more. So I think the move towards branded the move towards brands unorganized to an organized space is another thing that we will see and already started seeing. I mean I was talking to the head of food and nutrition for India and he was telling me that some of the clients have told them that even basic vegetables you know now people wanted properly wrapped and you know it has to come with a hygienic you know almost like a trusted stamp on it. People are not willing to just buy it from the street. The shares which is a company that I have invested as a personal investor and they are also seeing huge upsurge in demand because people are not going to go to the local unhygienic suspect which are used to buy their meat from. I think those are the three trends that I would identify as what can change the entire consumption patterns overall consumption we believe will certainly come back and you know it's not as if as an economy you know we will certainly see a shrinkage next 12 months are tough and you know clearly everybody has to under down and you know plan the priorities right but it actually augurs very well for branded food consumption patterns. Absolutely and I mean you know you rightly put it that we now sort of in the last 60 days and today is the 60th day actually and we've sort of got used to home so given the fact that you know consumers and particularly you know we've been so much in the hustle bustle of things professional life has been extremely excruciating for the last seven eight years with people traveling and doing so many other things that you know they've experienced home so to say in the last 60 days. And given that what kind of new product categories do you think are likely to emerge whether it is with food I mean for the first time I think I've cooked for like 10 or 15 odd times during these 60 days which has not happened for a long time but you know so it made me look into new things and I'm sure so it has with everybody so whether it's food whether it's gadgets I mean you know I realized the importance of gadgets so much more at this point of time so what new trends do you see in products coming up because of this time. So again you know the obvious ones are the ones you called out for example food cooking today is becoming an experience it is not a chore just because you know that's a highlight of the day. And you know all our homes we have seen you know everybody is getting involved and you know making a meal out of it and you're setting the table pulling out a bottle of wine. That's the only highlight that you know you're doing something different otherwise you know you're just stuck in the same four walls of the house so any product which caters to allowing me to cook better. No content side of course you know people are now looking at recipes and know the whole digital content piece but on the product side for example let me take three examples you know two of companies that I've been involved with not to fireside but on the board of dishes and ID fresh they have seen a significant upsurgeant demand and the demand is really because people want to cook on the vicious side you know little bit more exotic little bit more you know and obviously hygiene and safety factors become very important. Suddenly there's a big search and demand but ID also which is you know a very basic everyday breakfast ready to cook rage. There is Lido South Hatter, there is Parathas, there is Fitra Coffee Decoction but once again you know the convenience of getting something which you trust again going back to that same point.  That becomes an interesting one. We have a very small company which we incubated called Tasty Tales. They are ready to cook brand and they are basically focused on pieces which are very authentic from different regions and there you know again they have seen a significant upsurgeant demand because you know people want to try out you know new ideas. So that is one category food. Second category is like you called it gadgets. I think gadgets the work from home is here to stay. And people are upgrading you know the day Amazon opened I have ordered I don't know how many items just to you know find my you know because you know suddenly you're sitting in the chair and you feel that you know your eggs and creaks and things like that. So you order you know some things for your wrist you're testing your laptop and all that stuff like you know staring at a screen has never been part I mean certainly not our job is not staring at a screen for the day. And you know certainly it becomes very alien so upgrading your you know quote unquote your appliances and your gadgets to offer you a better experience. Second is the conduction of content. So now that you're watching more movies and more Netflix or Amazon Prime again you know there is a boat one of our companies. We have seen you know the day they open you know again you were telling me that there's one day peak in demand was quite unprecedented even though large number of larger mature that's not opened up so we are still seeing it more in the thing. That's the second piece I think that we are seeing. The one interesting thought which might be worth tracking is what happens to fashion. Everybody has talked about you know discretionary spending and all that stuff. So there are two or three different points of view you know one is this whole you know what people are calling revenge shopping. And you know you've been cooked in 60 days you know no ability to go out no ability to you know shopping is an instinct for all of us. I mean it's also it's also part of some kind of a like an explanation. So suddenly you have a situation when you can't shop and I think examples of China suddenly you know some luxury stores opening up and people buying unprecedented number of products. So that is one interesting dimension. But I think the other interesting idea which we feel can be worth exploring is again I'm making up a coin. Coining a term here so I don't know how good of that is the whole concept of fashion at home.  Right. So what does it mean you know what you how you and I look right now is really our public persona. So what we wear as our bottom is really more comfort more you know like saying and so you know is there an opportunity to create a range of products which are more comfortable are less formal. You can still you know mix and match them with it.  Now Bailey outside my webinars are barely stepped out on my yoga pants. Honestly you may be wearing yoga pants right now. I can but you don't feel like in the office. Yeah sure. No but I'm saying if you're at home there will be so I think while I don't want to over speculate and you know start predicting a lot of things. But certainly I would say that the opportunity to leverage this new consumption. Call it behavior or call it pattern. You have to just be fleet footed and you know again our startups you know entrepreneurs in general are always more nifty you know more free footed more experiment data. So as a fund you know we believe there are exciting times ahead. Yes you know all of us are you know concerned about immediate survival and certainly you know not only in our portfolio but at a larger level you know they will be cases that are struggling with survival and cash flows and all that. And we have to be very empathetic about that. But I mean I'm extremely optimistic about the opportunity hopefully in the next 12 months from now. Sure I mean you know so this is just prior to the lockdown happened in about a month back prior I was in Singapore and I realized how 7-elevens out there had a lot of these meal kits. So you know essentially you could just pick up that stuff go home and cook and I just wondered how interesting this is though I never seen it in the US and some other markets. Do you think in fact the biggest thing you know restaurant food is and so many other kind of meals that we've been used to prior meal kits you think might be an interesting opportunity in food. So I think so yes I think what is happening is that this whole desire to cook you know let's call it exciting meals is certainly seen a big upswing. I mentioned Tasty Tales, I mentioned Licious, I mentioned ID. You know these are all ready to cook categories. Interestingly what is happening is and you know these are live conversations we are having. So we are talking to Licious to say okay you know we have Tasty Tales which does all the you know the paste and the masala and you have Licious which supplies the meat. You know that you combine the two and can we find a new way of doing business where the consumer gets both together and in 20 minutes you have your exotic dish from regional parts of the country ready. So there are going to be certainly some interesting possibilities which will emerge. So I personally am a bit now in the company called Blue Apron in the US which went through a big upswing in terms of this market gap got listed and then had a huge crash because everybody said you know meal kits don't work and people are not. And now as you see it's gone back you know almost 2-3 times in terms of the upswing. So behaviorally I think whatever works for giving you more experiences at home is certainly going to see. Sure. So we've in fact had one question come which has come from Himanshu Mahapatra who says do you see some changes happening in the early learning market the preschool market because obviously you cannot teach the kids much on the screen. So any any trends that you likely to see over there. So see again I'm not an education expert so I'm just talking commonsense here. So we have a company called Magic Trade and their whole business model was based on this belief that parents don't want too much of screen exposure and they would rather have kids play with more you know physical tactile and so forth with some technology you know built in. So certainly as a concern and as an area of focus for sure parents are you know wanting to you know provide the time for the child especially in such an early age and we have seen good business structure for that business. Now what is also happening is that people are starting to use quote unquote digital interface as a way of learning which is not just self learning or learning from a screen. So live classes you know so again taking my example they just launched a series called master class series where they have you know chess instructor. They have people who teach you how to do different skills and all that and suddenly they see a huge upsurge in that demand because everybody you know wants their child and Indian parents are obviously excited about many things that the child can do. So using interfaces like digital you know thing not necessarily because of learning or learning through the Internet. It's almost like that's just a screen but you have somebody on the other end. Now it can be live it can be recorded you know we have a company called Sarva. You know now we have pretty much completely turned the business model on its head. So it's entirely digital you know you can do live classes you can have content streaming on the screen which you can follow you know they have various content for meditation etc. So digital content as a way of engaging and just expanding the scope of the question a little bit. Certainly that's that's a very exciting but how do you manifest that you have a live person on the other side you just have content or audio visuals which people can learn from I think those models will emerge in all directions. And your storytelling I guess a lot of store because kids essentially they understand stories that they say it's so much better. You know so I know that Fireside Ventures also has you raised fund from L'Oreal itself for your fund. So I mean particularly if I were to say with L'Oreal as your investor do you see at wellness businesses differently. Do you see some new things emerging or new trends emerging in the wellness sector wellness product sector that is. So certainly short answer is yes. I'm just looking at wellness is a much broader category. Surely beauty and you know what you're putting on your body is one aspect of wellness and you know we have a huge respect for L'Oreal and the fact that they have always been at the cutting edge of innovation. But wellness for us is everything from what you eat. And there you go all the way from the basic aspects of hygiene and basic aspects of safety and making sure that you know you are not consuming something which is harmful. All the way to you know better nutrition more natural more good for you immunity. So there are lots of you know new aspects of dimensions. And similarly on the personal care and beauty side I think there is certainly a very high quality of demand emerging for more herbal more organic or natural. More clean label products less toxic less chemicals and so on and so forth. And we have three companies using some form of Ayurveda as the basis for their offerings. Two of them in the more food and supplements phase one in the personal care space. And all are seeing in our renewed demand. So Ayurveda is I would say a subset of this natural and broad wellness team. So so wellness as a theme for us is almost like center of play. I mean we invest in a lot of companies which are in the good for you categories. So short answer is yes. I think to add a slightly nuance to your question is what Laurel has done very effectively and we are really you know big believers in what they're doing is they have invested and they have curated businesses which are more towards personalization in the beauty and personal care.  And those kind of emerging technologies are coming up which can influence both what you eat because it can personalize either diet or specific areas that you know you need help in which could be weight loss. We have a company in menstrual health and they can actually help to diagnose some problems and then recommend some Ayurvedic products or in the beauty space where you can actually say listen you have a you know it's not just oily or dry but it's also you know certain type of pigment and certain type of acne and whatever. So I would say that you know good for you is the big team. But within that even more interesting things are starting to emerge. So I mean Laurel we see as a very good partner for us to leverage a lot of this. Sure. You know so let me ask you a different kind of a question and you know you're right. You mentioned companies like Licious and then there are so many others. Now the fact is you know that there are there are startups and there are SMEs out there who are doing a lot of good work you know in Azure Veda in organic and so many other sectors and you know particularly for the product category. It's about their distribution. It's about how they reach out and sort of talk to the customer that gives them the business that gives them revenue in and given the fact that of course digital has become the medium to talk to the customer. But it also asks for a lot of burn you know you have to make a lot of investments in order to reach out socially because of the clutter that is there on social today. So what what kind of cost rationalization strategy are you giving to your own portfolio companies as well as largely that would be helpful for businesses out there. You know so that they're not able to put their burn less they're able to still reach out to their customers some new kind of marketing and distribution. You know strategies they can look at. So what what would be your suggestion to them. So you know at least our experience across now 20 odd companies that we have invested in and seen it and obviously I have been investing in this space before that is that it is not necessarily a very high burn and you know high capital requirement as a business model.  So you know we have companies like Amar and companies like vote who are now you know significant inside. Mama both of them are no much over 100 crores. I don't know how much numbers are publicly available so I'm not able to share specifics with very very limited capital. And what you have done extremely well is they have leveraged the whole concept of community building of creating affinity with their core customers through better content through referral through vitality.  And comfort so it's not it's not the cost part of it. It's really the strategy of how you effectively build that yoga bar you know works with a lot of people who are into active living go to the gym you know our boat outdoor and adventure kind of seekers. What again you know they have built a beautiful campaign using young almost you know edgy celebrities. So hard to get a role and you know Karthik Aryan and people like that. So I would say that you know so that is the I think there is a little bit of misunderstanding that digital brands have to be high burn and you know need to burn a lot of capital. That is we are not seeing that. Now within that I think the question still you know begs this answer saying what is the advice. There are two parts that we are focused on. One is that you know on one side we know that while consumers will continue to look for value it's not necessarily going to be the cheapest price. In fact our belief is that people will pay a small premium if they have more comfort that I'm buying something which gives me great not just product value but also the confidence the trust of the brand. So in that context you know what we don't want our companies to do is suddenly start discounting their products and ending in a situation where your unit economics goes completely out of. So that is one advice and that means that you know if you have to go back to your core products you know if you have to slow down the long tail if you have to consolidate and this is certainly for the next 12 months a very prudent strategy. And second is that instead of you know just advertising in large numbers get much more focused. Good news because really interesting as a almost like a antithesis of what we are talking is the cost of advertising on all digital channels has come down because all of the categories are not advertising. Airlines are not advertising banks are not advertising a lot of the other large sectors are not advertising. The efficiency of advertising on digital channels has actually become more in favor of some of these smaller brands. So if you can you know if you can build an interesting model where you know so we have this very strong metric tracking around the cost of acquisition and return on advertising and spend etc etc.  I mean literally monitoring those kind of things. So I think it's required orientation but I can tell you again very honestly it is not as expensive or not as hyper as it seems to be. Sure but I mean you know also today a lot of companies are feeling that they probably need to pivot their product categories. Do you think it's a good idea I mean given the fact that the pandemic is still there with us and there are a lot of uncertainties. You know we might be out we might be nearly out of a lockdown right now but you never know when we might be into it once again. So I mean given all these situations and I mean would you ask would you think it's right for SMEs or startups to start thinking about non-code products at this time. It's a tough one see it's a very wide swath of sectors so you know pivoting as a general concept I didn't want to react to that. But you know for example we have a fashion brand and they were completely locked out you know no e-commerce they could not even do it so they started producing masks. Now you know that's not a pivot that is almost like a you know like a tactical opportunity. So in a way you know you are making use of the resources you have and you are able to do something. Now should every company launch sanitizers I think in the short term there is a shortage so you will see the impact of that. But you know in the long run you know can you create 100 brands of sanitizers with no differentiation and then it becomes like a totally commodity play. I mean I am personally not a big believer in you know doing something which is very you know in a long term very you know commoditized. But surely you know everybody is trying to solve for immediate problems and sometimes you know you are also using these tactical things to create the brand story. Some of our company one of our company launched a new sanitizer and they gave away a large number of sanitizers to the you know hospital workers to the you know the people looking after them. Now that is a leadership stance which is not so much a business pivot but a great way to build your trust and build your brand with the consumer so that when you come back to the normal you know business and people say ok we like this brand it has a conscience which is over and beyond that. So again are certainly you know very specific to the context. Like I mentioned you know we have Sarva which has yoga studios. Now we don't think yoga studios are going to come back in a long time. So therefore a pivot has to be done. I mean there is no choice. So that is one extreme. But you know should a company like table street like I mentioned you know women's work and very strong affinity with consumers they will have to decide. Like an example I gave you about comfortable bottom where is something that they are actually talking about. Now that is not a pivot. That is you know you are almost aligning yourself to a new trend. But should they you know stop that and get into masks. I don't think so. And you know can masks become a fashion accessory along with the products. Probably that's the way to think about it. Yeah that's a difficulty too. I mean so going forward you know as a fund do you see an opportunity which is more blended. I mean product and service coming together. I know so far you know at fireside you've been more focused on a pure product. But I mean do you feel that you know for example like a fitness tracker and IOT home gadget or I mean some kind of another gadget which combines both. I think so actually I would say that is a natural evolution. And it only gets more accelerated as people get more comfortable with the digital channel and the digital media. So short answer is again yes you know but for example we are already considering some of these fitness areas because the brand lent itself beautifully to two extensions. So that could be one. Now the other way of looking at service is also like I called it the personalization angle or the engagement angle with the consumer again through a digital interface. So you know recommendations either on counts of wellness or health or beauty. I think those are probably interesting models where you are using either live or some kind of a thought interface or artificial intelligence to actually in a way you know personalize the experience for our consumer. And we are seeing that as a very interesting trend even globally you know we have seen some models emerging in that space so I think that is one manifestation of that. But like you said you know can you create a fitness tracker which also has a service attached to it and you know somebody is advising you on you know based on the data that you are tracking what kind of food to eat etc. Absolutely. To me that is actually a very positive way of building the community building the brand and not just selling a product and then you are looking at the consumer. Sure. And I mean you know particularly since you have such lines you have a lot of beverages in your portfolio then you also have products like my mouth which have a continuous need from a customer. But you know I mean even the fact that the next quarter particularly looks a bit dark in the sense that you know we know that there have been salary cuts job losses and so on. And you know model business models which are either subscription based or they require constant ordering to happen. Do you think consumers affordability and the product price the how what kind of parity needs to come over there. So I think they will be you know as they call it a flight to value. I mean I'm distinguishing between value and price. It's not necessary that you know you're looking for the cheapest product but surely everybody will be more sensitive to what they are spending and how much they are spending. So what you know all our companies and overall as an ecosystem we need to be very conscious of. Is that we are not you know offering products or prices to consumers which are completely you know outside the realm of things. So you mentioned beverages or beverages you know start 10 rupees a kind of drink all the way to 150 rupees a drink. And we have always had sensitivity on the price point especially on the higher end. I think so the mainstream consumer will still you know whether they'll pay 10 or 20 or 30 I think that will find out from the value proposition. But surely you know everybody has to be sensitive to what kind of price you are putting on the product.   And I think that's a great opportunity to question every decision that you're taking and be very almost like butchless about it. So that's that's a great positive. So there is always you know in the in the desire to grow fast and gain market share you know a lot of companies get into this bad habit of saying we don't care about we don't care about you know the comics we will just throw at any cost and then we will figure it out. So I'm saying maybe some good habits will start coming back. Sure. You know I see that we just getting questions are pouring in like after every single minute. So I think before I ask you for questions let's take some questions from the audience also. Can we give the audio to Vikas please. Vikas please unmute and ask your question. Yeah. So I am I'm in Chandigarh and I'm into growing vegetables through the proponic technology. So my question is that with all this happening across the globe do you see the new word being the globalization rather than globalization. That's a very interesting question because I think it's probably going to be both. I think the produced local local actually has been a growing trend globally. And we have seen the finest restaurant in the world have this very strong narrative around you know essentially there are some technical terms for it. But you know you only use local produce to design your menu. So I think that you know consciousness of consuming local products is and in your case particularly because you are into fresh vegetables. I think that trend is probably going to get accentuated and also I think if I can be more philosophical about it. I think there's also a sense of community. I mean if you can almost think of it the world may come out kinder and a nicer world after this because you know something we have seen unprecedented as a collective. It's not you know it happened to me or to you it happened to everyone. So in that sense you know supporting local communities and become a very interesting trend. Let me give you some example and I'm sure we have seen this in every city of the country. All of us are on some WhatsApp groups where we are getting messages directly from producers and every one of us and again I'm generalizing it. I'm happy to open it up as a discussion. But all of us have bought direct from the farms. We have bought products which around we are in Bangalore.  And people are buying in quantities. In fact we have been buying because they say we're coming from so far we won't sell below 5 kgs. And we say okay we'll buy and distribute but we want to support the local community. People are bringing flowers. You suddenly end up in a punch of you know large number of flowers in the house because you're supporting. So I think the short answer is I genuinely believe that the world will see that. But however the reverse of that is where I am also very excited which is now almost become an agenda for the government. Which is to produce local and go global. And I think India could come out of this in a very positive way. And again as an example Port which is one of our companies. We are very excited that we can take Indian brand, Indian produce products into global markets. So I would say it's a combination of both we will see and both hopefully will be positive. Okay. Sure thanks because can we have Hari Shah next? Please unmute Hari and ask your question. Thank you so much for the insight sir. We briefly spoke about fashion at home. So I run a fashion jewellery brand online by the name Bling Bag. My question is more around can we if we touch upon the fashion accessory segment within fashion. I understand you know comfortable bottom pants and so on. Appearance is one segment of fashion but what about the accessories are not really a need. And people will not step out of the house and considering that you have a fashion jewellery brand in your portfolio. How do you see this segment going forward? How would this industry pivot? See jewellery at least I would put in a still part of the fashion at home at least in the short term. And it's not that people will not step out of their home for forever. So we have a company called Pippa Vela and they are also into fashion jewellery and completely online as a brand. And we have been now discussing strategy and you know what is the way back and so on and so forth. So at least to me the concept of quote unquote that whole look of how you're I mean I don't know if there's a word called zoom look. But it's more and more you know common and all of us are from zoom. So what is that zoom look and you know how do you accessorize yourself for that. So I would be that now if you are also talking about other accessories like bags and you know other category of products. That is where I would be still a little bit you know very in the short term again six to 12 months. Now from whatever we have seen of consumer behavior especially women buying bags. There is it's never a need based buying shoes and bags are not caught on the fact that you know I need it and I'll use it for the next 12 months. So sometimes you know like I called it that event shopping people may just buy bags because they just want to feel good. You know they've been hooked up in the house and you need to you know express yourself somehow the other. Now so I mean I'm not saying it's suddenly you know buying fashion bags will become the biggest trend. But I would also not be so optimistic to say that you know the back sale will completely stop. So I think you'll have to just wait it out. It's going to be a slightly longer recovery back in your category versus say food and nutrition those kind of areas. You think it's going to be comfort over vanity. I doubt it in the long run. In the short run I think comfort will add on shortly. Now you know the challenge for all the designers including Harvey and our company is can you make vanity and comfort come together. That is the exciting opportunity. Raju Nair is next. Can we have Raju? Please unmute and ask your question. Yes. Good day Ritu. Good day Kamal Jeet. Can you hear me? Yes. In a way you pulled some of that thought in one of your earlier mentions. I am based overseas but inherently and I've been outside in both the UK and the DCC for about 20 years. I have been seeing Indian brands vastly increase the quality of their produce. You know, be it in fashion, be it in food. The perception hasn't yet struck in these markets. Now with the impact of globalization, does India have the marketing ecosystem, combination of good packaging, combination of consistency to quality to take this into the international markets? Thank you. Raju, I think so. We have two brands. There is a brand of tea called Bhadam which is taking the high end exotic Indian teas and as a category Indian teas are already acknowledged globally. As probably the best teas in the world. But they are bought in big brown chests and in auctions. Nobody has taken the effort to brand them and sell them as a consumer product.  So to answer, we have examples of brands like that. We have a company which is the Ayurveda based personal care, you know, oils and beauty products. They have again done a very successful job in US and Europe and other markets. So I think it is a trend which is already starting to emerge. And he believed that it can become a much larger trend now that the government has, you know, officially announced this whole desire to, you know, support through reforms and through even, you know, stronger push for making in India improving quality and helping Indian brands go to international markets. So we see that actually as a very large vector of growth for some of our brands going forward. So I'm very privileged. Good. Thank you. Sure. Jigar Mehta is next. And we have Jigar. Okay. In case he's not there, then can we have Ritesh Shetty? Ritesh, please unmute. Hi, this is Ritesh. Jigar Mehta? Yes. Thank you. My question is that I understand your various wellness and Ayurveda brands and their portfolio. Question is how do and many of these brands get their work done from rural areas, workers working there. How will these workers get their sustenance going given these brands might shut down operations in the light of COVID? That's a philosophical question. I mean, specifically our brands are not sourcing in the context you mentioned. These are mostly sourced from production houses from various parts of the country. But at a broader level, you know, I don't have a good answer at a company or an individual level. I think this is something which already the government has been taking as a very serious look at. And one can argue, you see all kinds of debates in the media and in the intellectual intelligentsia about what is enough and what is not enough. So, unfortunately, it's not an answer that it's in the scope of what individual companies can do. You know, they're all figuring out what is the right strategy for them? How do you protect your workers? How do you protect your staff? But solving a larger problem of how do you, you know, support the larger global rate outside our scope? I'm sorry, I don't have a better answer, but it's very difficult for me to answer for what is essentially going to be a government led program. Okay, thank you. Sure. We have some questions also coming from Facebook very quickly to you, Kanrujit. It's, you know, they say that there are a lot of products which brand themselves is natural and organic. So how is the consumer supposed to tell whether they're really natural and organic? So, you know, I think ultimately, it's really comes down to what I called in the beginning brand trust. And, you know, therefore, if you see, you know, today the consumption, a lot of the larger companies which are supplying some of the more basic essential products are seeing significant growth in revenue and also, you know, stock market is starting to acknowledge that for the simple reason that, you know, the trust of those brands that already I was telling you before we started, I was talking to some people from supply yesterday and they have launched a brand of hand sanitizers. Now, that's a category which is obviously extremely monetized, extremely crowded, but no, it's a need of the hour but when you say it comes from the house of supply, automatically it builds in a strong element of trust and confidence. So in that sense, it actually becomes that much, you know, more important for the brand to build that element of trust in some form or fashion, you know, through conversations, you know, for our brands, you know, we're talking about communities, we're talking about people referring it so you can put anything on the label, eventually the consumer has to feel confident that they trust what you're saying. But the direction to natural and organic is surely there. I mean, clearly, you know, that's the direction everybody is going. Sure. And I think before I ask you a question that somebody is asking, how do you think the gifting markets is likely to change? I haven't thought of that actually. It's interesting. I wonder if virtual gifting will become the... Yeah, I wonder. I don't have a very educated view on that. Okay. So I think we're getting more questions, but I think in interest of time, you know, I have an interesting one for you. So today we've seen, you know, we've seen e-commerce becoming bigger in India. There's been Flipkart and then Amazon and now we have seen Geo becoming the next big e-commerce player in this country. Now, how do you think, particularly from a small start-ups and a very small business perspective, and I know they have a plan for digitizing the Kirana, the mom-and-pop stores, what changes do you see in the e-commerce happening in the e-commerce market going forward? Sure. I think the beauty is that the digital overall ecosystem is extremely dynamic. And what we have seen literally on a quarter-by-quarter basis is just that change is almost the constant. I mean, it has to happen as you think about it. I mean, take just Amazon, for example.  Now there is old conversation around Future Group. They have gone into Fresh Vegetables. Yesterday we read that they have announced their first quote-unquote food delivery service in Bangalore. So they are competing with the swiggies of the world. They are also getting into a local shop program. So the interesting thing for us is that all of this dynamism means that it creates new opportunities for especially the younger brands who are, you know, think of it as born-on-the-net kind of brands to leverage these channels and leverage these opportunities. So to us here and this whole relationship with Facebook and WhatsApp is a huge disruptor. So it empowers the local Kiranas and we believe that for a Kirana store to have that ability to offer some kind of a digital interface to their consumers makes them more competitive with the bigger pairs. And what that will do in exchange is that they can offer more choice because they are not now limited by shelf space in their stores. So for some of our brands actually it may become a new opportunity because you can actually put your product into their catalogs while you don't have to necessarily display it in the small space that they have in the local thing. So there are possibilities which actually will become even more interesting, we believe. And more than that, the response to this from the other players like Amazon and Flipkart has already started coming in. So I think it will take the whole digital disruption to the next level. And I think it's good for consumers and it's good for brands. And to the last mile I think, you know, we've had, it's going to take the last mile in now. Yeah, and you know, the whole narrative in the broad consensus is that the local producers, the local Kirana stores have been super proactive and almost the saviours for people during this lockdown. Now, if you empower them with a digital capability and digital payments and you know, all of those last mile like you called it, I think suddenly it becomes very interesting. So as a consumer, you know, I can show my love for the local guy. And as a brand, you know, I get more avenues to actually be present in and create some interesting new channels for myself. So I think it's a very good thing. I'm very bullish about it. So hyperlocal, I think we've already been seeing it emerging in the last few years, but do you think it's going to be interesting now? Absolutely. And hyperlocal is where even the large e-commerce pairs are going. Correct. In a way, you know, the fact that I can now order my fruits and vegetables, I can order everything from a store and it can deliver in say one hour or two hours. I mean, that is like an amazing consumer proposition. So now as we know, we're ready to unlock ourselves after 60 days, do you think the consumer demand which has been pent up in one sense? And we've seen that example in China where, you know, Hermi saw a $5 million sale in about the first two days of their opening. Do you feel that India is going to be more conservative? What do you think India is also just going to go out there and splurge and put money on luxury or lifestyle or eating out of, you know, wherever it is that they can spend? I would be a little more cautious. I would say that I don't think Indians are, you know, that extremely driven by suddenly going and expressing themselves by luxury. And also, I think the economic situation right now is not conducive for that. So at least to me, you know, China, I don't know, overall common economic slowdown, whether they saw the same kind of pressures that India has seen. But surely, you know, I don't expect people to start buying Hermi's bags. Where are they going to take them? Yeah, but I think certainly, as I said, you know, companies like board where the literally the gates opened last week on e-commerce and we saw a big splurge. So there is a pent up demand. Is that demand for everyday products plus plus or is that demand for luxury? I mean, I would be a little cautious in predicting luxury as well. Well, thank you so much for talking to us. It's been a real pleasure. And I think just to sort of summarize as to the points that you brought out really. For me, I think the biggest takeaway is that, you know, local is vocal now and I think we need to now think of Indian products and they have a long way to go. And with promising investors such as yourself in the market who have been great champions of consumer product market. We have a, you know, there's just I think we just started with how beautifully we can take out the Indian products and not just for the Indian market but also taking them globally and packaging them well and being able to sell them. And I think on another hand, you know, as you said, live from home. So you live from home categories are going to be very interesting. So whether it is food or whether it is going to be wellness or gadgets or, you know, the one thing I'm looking to spend on is actually a really large screen if I'm going to have to work from home in a very big way. So yeah, so I think we'll all probably get there. So thank you very much. Once again, any parting thoughts, your last message before we close this.   So we are all speculating at some level. So, you know, part of our grief to ourselves is to stay optimistic and stay positive and we are seeing some of that reflect in our brand. So I think if there are a lot of entrepreneurs and some of the questions came from entrepreneurs, I would say next 12 months hunker down, be, you know, very, very conservative in not, you know, essentially survive. And when you come on the other side, please, we are very confident that things will actually come out even stronger, especially on the digital and the commerce side of things. Sure. Thank you very much. And thank you to all the participants for joining us. And please keep the questions coming. We're going to be putting out this chat on Facebook also. So if you have more questions, please feel free to ask there. And we'll be happy to answer it for you. Thank you once again for joining us. My pleasure. Bye.


I entitled my presentation Thinking Wider on Land Institutions in Africa and I think the challenge that we are facing and Alain already raised that very eloquently is that in 1990 to 2010 we saw a lot of African countries passing new laws and policies but the institutions to implement them have been lagging behind. I think the main legal innovation was the recognition of customary tenure but there was little change in terms of practice due to lack of clarity who is actually subject of these rights. Is it males, is it only females, is it the chiefs, the headmen or whoever and ways to exercise these rights and to transfer them. Also how they can be recorded and of course without having boundaries land rights are a little bit difficult to define. You have a lot of disputes possibly and the responsibility for maintenance and also access for arrangements for accessing land data by the private sector. This means that these innovations together have not really been enough for structural transformation and that's what has been talked about here quite a bit and that requires both long-term leasing and participation in value chains, valuation of land and so that it's possible to use it for collateral land acquisition for large infrastructure projects. I think in the World Bank we are having this regularly being a key bottleneck for projects and of course property taxation and levying of local revenue to provide services. Therefore we need to expand the horizon a little bit to focus both on formal and informal institutions both in urban and rural areas, use the new opportunities that are provided by IT remote sensing and connectivity and build the domestic capacity for policy dialogue and change. To put Africa in global comparison we put here an index of just four elements whether the disaster is digital because I think it's very difficult to plan if you have only paper maps and these paper maps and of course paper titles also can very easily disappear whether registry and disaster is integrated so that you can actually have the spatial information and the textual information on the same property in one go and whether most of the land and don't ask me about the definition of that in the main city is either registered or mapped. So these are four points countries can have between one and four points and you see here that Africa with the exception of Rwanda which is a green spot that is because of the size of the country hardly recognizable is quite red and doesn't meet any of them together with South Asia. So clearly there's a lot of things to do and what I want to do in my presentation is to draw out some implications for how to deal with customary tenure, how to formulate policies for large farms and I think there was a little bit of discussion on spill overs already yesterday whether it is possible and how it's possible to reap sustained benefits from land titling and what this implies for urban land tenure and competitiveness as well as policy and research. I think on customary land issues it is very clear that the colonial dualism that was introduced decades or even centuries ago has not been overcome by the legal innovations that have been introduced. Originally it was a myth of retarded small holders versus commercial farms that need to be promoted. Nowadays it is high entry barriers to statutory title both in terms of survey cost and in terms of inefficient institutions and that is often reinforced even in countries whereby non-transferable documents or documents that are not being maintained. This has two types of disadvantages. First of all it encourages speculative land acquisition by the wealthy and I think Tom Chain has been doing a lot in terms of documenting the increasing concentration of farms of land sizes in Sub-Saharan Africa and of course since all of the cost is upfront there's no incentive to use the title land effectively so much of it is speculative land acquisition. I'll show you a little bit of that later and of course the second element is that the benefits of customary tenure are largely foregone and the majority of the population who live under customer tenure especially women are left with very very little security. Sambia is one example, title means or acquiring title means that land is irreversibly transferred out of customary to state land which means that essentially the chiefs sell their consent of course they need to give their consent on paper. The cost is very high even if it's officially without paying off the chiefs and of course what you see then is that informal documentation emerges a substitute. What does this mean in practice? We did a small survey there of emergent farmers and of course not surprisingly and I think political economy is one of the currents that really goes through the session. It's the guys who are politically connected and often the chiefs who acquire land outside their kingdom in other chiefdom areas who are the ones who get formal title because they're politically well connected and informal certificates which they call chief certificates are not very equitable either but if we look at the productivity impacts we find the title even though there is huge costs associated with it has no productivity effects at all which is consistent with speculative land acquisition informal certificates are associated with significant increases in yields as well as profits. Of course that means that one desirable step really would be to see whether you can actually do away with this artificial dichotomy of customary earths versus statutory and document customary rights and I think Mexico shows a very interesting example for that. Elisabeth will talk in much more but what would be required to do that would be to define the status of the chiefs area demarcate and publish them to support basic resource inventory and planning put in place the regulations and publicize the internal and outside external transaction and then of course provide the basis for maintenance and the link to a national registry. Technologically I think all of these things can be solved they're not very difficult but of course the political economy means that there's a lot of people who gain rents from the existing system who are opposed to that. The second item that I want to touch briefly is on improving data on large farms and policy because I think as I already mentioned this is very important because there's a significant shift to expansion of large farms. Malawi provides an interesting example because 75 percent of the area is cultivated by small holders 25 percent by estates they have average 35 hectares were given in the late 80s but there's virtually no estates. What we did is we started by computerizing the registry then had to do a listing because the data was such crap that we had to actually see where things were located document the boundaries update these and add key characteristics and then use the sample of 2250 and divide it into as is seen here on the slide to complement the LSMS. What we find is that clearly sample composition matters quite a bit if you take only the ones so I think this one is the small holders this one is if you're at the estate so you clearly see that there is some shift in the so that the inverse relationship actually changes a little bit but even the estates are not homogeneous you have a significant difference between corporate estates and household based estates and I think these are tenants that are associated with estates and if you do this with profits I think you also see significant differences so clearly I think there is this raises a number of policy questions first of all the figures I showed you there are based on cultivated land the figures change significantly if you own land so I think clearly we need to ask why do estates not cultivate all of their land or why don't they do mechanize and does it the insecurity of tenure preclude them from leasing out the rest of their land to small holders second is that government loses significant revenue I think we did some simulations that could actually add up to five percent of public spending because 90 percent of the leases expired lease payments have never been adjusted and are rarely collected and interestingly enough as part of our policy intervention on the development policy loan we asked them to issue 30 000 bills and lease renewal notices we thought that would never happen but it actually happened and what they found is to their great surprise is that there's significant interest to buy these lease holders to renew that and of course that now creates an opportunity for doing very interesting policy experiments and seeing how this can actually play out and what are the conditions and the willingness of these leaseholders to pay and of course then the third question is what to do with defund estates land should that revert back to customary or should it be distributed to progressive investors and can it be used to generate spill overs and I think that will become relevant especially after the next elections then I think I think I have to skip over that because Alan will kill me otherwise but just to illustrate I think the Malawi case was of course all unmechanized and I was very surprised myself not to see any mechanization you see in mechanized cases which is Ethiopia here is much more significant differences between small holders which are illustrated here and estates which are large farms which are also significantly larger this one is for mace but I think you can do this for almost every crop and again I think it illustrates the importance of getting large farm data to inform policy and of course also it raises the question in the case of Ethiopia why we don't see so why we do not see any spill overs and of course that is a very important both either in terms of employment or in terms of technology transfer and that clearly is something where I think policy and some coordination and planning could be quite useful which can be combined and we hope to be able to combine that in the case of Malawi with recognition of customer tenure which I think Mexico provides a good example then of course let's go for the next item is to look a little bit at the weather tenure regularization can actually have any impact and the bright spot that I showed you on the map earlier provides a good example Rwanda implemented as many of you may know the largest program in Africa that regularized about 11.5 million parcels 64 percent of them agricultural and interestingly enough 86 percent have women as a sole or co-owner so I think that is unprecedented the neighbor Uganda has 23 percent I think this was interestingly enough that was preceded by extensive pilots and it's very low cost it's five to six dollars per parcel so I think nobody can tell me that that is not affordable we looked at the pilot impacts from the pilot I think we see significant investment effects but also some issues on female access that need to be addressed in the rollout for the national rollout where we did a randomized where we were able to actually argue with the government to randomize the rollout we see that perceived rights are much more secure we see higher levels of market participation lower labor for land preparation but not harvest which is stronger if the initial rights were weaker increase in wage employment and food security and I think all of these of course are consistent with structural transformation and of course if we complement the household data with administrative data which is on mortgages both the number and the amounts you see that there was actually significant expansion and that is not only limited to urban areas so how can of course the question that comes up everywhere is how can this formality be sustained and I think because informality I mean it's no use if you just regularize and then it goes back to informality I don't think this is an issue for urban areas we see in Kigali six percent of parcels are or sales for six percent of parcels of the national total are registered every year but of course we see a big return to informality in rural areas what can be done about that or the government of course was concerned as well so one step was to provide information and access to service points which they call sector land managers using administrative data we can show that placing a sector and the rollout of overtime of the sector land managers we can show that placing a sector land manager doubles registration rates for sales but has no effect on non-monetary transfers of course for more non-monetary transfers which is inheritance and gifts and others and it's very easy to link the personal and the land registration since ronda has now achieved a full a full online connectivity to all the sectors and the fully computerized personal registration system this is something that experimenting with and that would routinely then reflect changes in individuals personal status in the land registry but of course the big elephant in the room relates to fees I think currently ronda has a flat fee of 40 per parcel which was incidentally recommended to them by the world bank and that of course makes sense in urban areas but not in rural ones where the value of the land may be actually less if you have a very small parcel and so I think that is something that the government is changing actually we are doing an experiment right now where we have a survey in the field to document the level of informality and then also see what is the elasticity to fee changes of course one other important element is that rather than look to look at the benefits from from registration and registering subsequent transaction of course that means that you have to enhance interoperability establish online links to courts and banks regulate and publish valuations to also set prices for expropriation a link to building permits make the lands more say a land registry more secure and all of the wonderful things that are associated with the multi-purpose disaster just to give you an example here I think just the incremental revenue in kigali alone so only the capital in terms of taxation the government could create is about 5.9 million dollars per year which would in 10 years more than pay for the cost of the program then I think the last thing that I want to touch on is the conundrum of urban land tenure I think clearly urban land rights are essential for african's development urban I think what we see in much of africa is urbanization without growth which has been driven by resource rents and imports without actually providing a huge land appreciation has gone into private pockets instead of service delivery and public goods there is without land rights you cannot plan you cannot value the land of course banks cannot use it as collateral and of course that will increase the cost or will will drive up wages make and make cities uncompetitive what is surprising is that the demand for title even among low income households is actually very high we did an experiment in daris alarm where we actually did some surveys we reduced the cost from the official fee we did a lottery with vouchers and we found that an average willingness to pay off about 35 dollars which if you compare it with the cost of the program in randa means that you could easily do that interestingly enough this could also have a very strong gender effect we did we tested that by making some vouchers conditional on putting on you get the money only if you put a woman on the title and we worked with the woman's NGO who were very active in pushing female rights interestingly what we find is an impact is that or that compared to 25 or 4 percent who wanted to put a woman on the title in the baseline 89 percent actually did so when they applied for the title and actually made down payments for that but interestingly enough the monetary incentive had no impact it was all the awareness raising but of course there is very strong political invested interests opposing these titles titling I think we never were able to issue any title because it turned up because of all kinds of political reasons that were brought up so we actually had to return the down payments that people made and they were not very happy about that I can tell you so what mean what does that mean in terms of taking moving forward on policy clearly I think we need to go beyond the ministers of lands to deal with ministers of finance and local government I think in many cases and some be a good example title is needed to collect property tax the only they collect only 10 percent even on the title land but of course the local governments has very very little coverage so I think they have right now about 63,000 of 400,000 properties for Lusaka on title and they collect about 50 percent so I think they are our best allies in terms of actually moving that and interestingly enough by a quirk of the legislation in some via local governments are actually allowed to issue titles so we are working now with local governments to issue titles in different cities and create a lot of demand which I think is the only way of getting them people in the ministry of lands moving and actually getting them to wake up of course a second element is to involve the private sector I think India has been experimenting quite a bit with PPP's build operate transfers which I think are very well suited for land administration because of course the this rapid expansion and project mode that is possible in Rwanda where you have a president who will monitor every day what his people are doing but in many in very few other African countries so clearly that is something that the private sector is much better and local government should in principle be able to issue bonds to finance that so what does that mean in terms of policy recommendations I think there is a clear sequence and where of course new technology can help us a lot which would involve first of all computerizing existing data to be able to diagnose the data quality see what's actually going on some of the things that are illustrated in terms of large farm performance highlight the option the gaps and the options to close them and also I think that means you shouldn't underestimate the scope the corruption in land ministries and of course if you computerize things at least you have the possibility to eliminate all of these because you have an auditable trail of that means at least you can implement the security measures much much better than a paper based system second is to adjust regulations and institutional arrangements I think there is I mentioned a couple of examples but clearly means that needs to be very country specific and of course and then expand coverage and interoperability to actually harness the full benefits from a functional functioning land institution I think the global global community has a very important role to play in three aspects one is of course I mentioned already policy conditions I wasn't a great believer in such policy conditionality until I found out that in a couple of cases actually it worked quite well and of course I think it works because it can actually help some progressive parts in government to push for changes that are needed in any case I don't think we should overestimate our power there second is to have simple indicators and of course SDG indicator 1.4.2 and 5.8.1 and linking to some of these elements that I showed you earlier from the doing business is very important to raise the bar globally and create competition and of course there is need to build capacity for domestic policy analysis which is why we are working with AARC on PhD and master's course in terms of the research agenda of course I think all of what I told you is at three thirty thousand feet so you need to have local evidence and research to put this down to earth and deal with the enormous complexity and variability that is invariably associated with if you deal with land and I think that is very important because you don't have a second chance on land if you get things wrong and screw it up it's screwed up for a long time and you will never be able to fix that and of course people's lives are at stake there so clearly adopting that and then checking the impact is very important I think there is a lot of policy and institutional changes that provide very interesting experiments and of course with increased access to administrative data and remote sensing there is really immense opportunities that haven't been available 20 years or 10 years ago when Alan and Betty did their book so I would hope that combining spatial data satellite imagery and farm household surveys as well as the data on urban tax collection would provide enough material for another attempt by Wider to actually tackle these important issues and provide some policy advice that is urgently needed to improve tenure security for the poor and better functioning of the economies there thank you


Now a coalition of civil societies known as the Oshun masterminds have called on the Oshun state government to prioritize following due process in its award of contracts to enhance quality job delivery and even infrastructure development in the state. The group also called on the state government to review the spread of projects in the state to ensure that distribution of infrastructure is not one-sided. Executive author group led by its director Professor Oyedo Kun Ali said this while addressing newsmen during August's addition of the monthly meeting held in Oshubo, the Oshun state capital. The group expressed concern that a composition of the procurement board in the state does not fulfill the provision of law saying this pertains negative implications on projects execution in the state. Our particular interest is the purchase of the award of contracts in the state in certain times. We are not oblivious of the law of the state in terms of procurement and we are worried as a group on the fulfillment of the provisions of the law in terms of award of contracts. We demand to know the composition of the procurement board in the state. We are worried that the completion of the board does not fulfill the provisions of the law in this regard. Existing laws concerning public procurement, execution of government contracts and projects in the state and in the country and the government must not hide under direct labor or any other approach to avoid going through the due process. I was born here. I grew up here. I don't think it has ever been this bad that you turn the festival to a theater of war where gunshots were flowing freely. Clearly people were reportedly killed if they were no more and more than six were badly injured. That has been alleged to be caught cross fire but we were shouting when the partisan thing became rampant in Malaysia in Nife. Hello. Hope you enjoyed the news. Please do subscribe to our YouTube channel and don't forget to hit the notification button so you get notified about fresh news updates.


Excel's data analysis regression tool gives you a set of confidence intervals around the intercept coefficient and the slope coefficient. Here the 95% interval are shown, but if we wanted to find the confidence intervals around these predictions it's a little more complicated than Excel does not give you a tool and to do it is a fairly complex set of equations. Not to worry we given you in your assignment materials an Excel calculator set up to do the job. We're going to need to copy our data, our x and y values into the calculator. I want to highlight those, let click and copy. Here's the calculator. It's similar to those you had in one of your earlier assignments. This one is called the CI and PI for confidence interval and prediction interval calculator for regression and in the same way the blue cells are where you enter your data. The yellow cells automatically calculate. Here be very careful. Notice that column F is labeled x for your predictor variable, y for your response variable. Make sure that the data you copy in is in that order. Ours is, I'm going to click there and just click paste and I've got my x value, my predictor value and my y values in there now. Over here I need to put in the value that we predict. The first one is 55. I'm going to put that in 95% confidence level and we get the 19.988.99 that we got using the equation on the regression output. This calculator calculates the interval half width or in some cases the margin of error which is 230.34 and that gives us the upper and lower confidence interval limit. In the bottom we've got the prediction interval limits and you notice that the the half widths are much larger for predictions than for the confidence interval and that is because if we're using the the confidence interval we should be trying to predict a value of the mean of a data set. For predictions where we want a specific x value and a specific y value we should use the prediction intervals. There's a lot more uncertainty when you have a specific data value as opposed to a mean data value and that's why the prediction interval is much wider. But I'll leave it to you for your assignment do a little more research to be able to state that more clearly as to why the prediction interval might be larger. All you need to do for the other sizes and your it's just to change out the width. I want to put 150 in there and it'll recalculate and give me those values. What you can do is just to copy this sheet and paste it just the values. Let me show you how to do that. We want to select this information, right click copy. I'm going to insert a new worksheet, select that for cell, right click bring up the special menu. You want to paste the values first of all then while it's still selected right click again and then click the formatting and that'll give you everything correct. You might know on this copy there are no underlying formulas so you'll have to go back to the original to change and calculate those. But this is a good way to create a table that you can copy and paste and insert into your report.


Good afternoon, I'm very happy to be here my first time in Vietnam Thank you so much for the kind invitation by you when you wider particular to China here and I will talk today about Brazilian case study the institutional reform of the Brazilian power sector and The implications it had for transformation inclusion and sustainability Actually this Presentation is draws extensively from previous research work done in Collaboration with the overseas development Institute from the UK and together with our British friends We examined the Sustainability of Brazilian energy system as a whole so I focus here only on electricity and Particularly because as the previous speaker has already mentioned access to Affordable reliable and clean electricity is a key requirement of sustainable development so this Reform of Brazilian power sector has as its main Target increasing the economic efficiency of supply through market transportation this was done in the early 90s following the extensive debate all over the world about privatization of power sectors and was particularly inspired by the UK case These were the times where there was also strongly a political debate and a lot of neoliberals reform all over the globe following touch a reason and economics, so In the case of Brazil this reform actually led to has led to undesirable social effects and also environmental negative environment impacts and Eventually also the economic sustainability was jeopardized by a power shortage and this led the following government to Take a reform of the reform so I think this lessons of that can be learned from this experience of Energy regulation Interesting in terms of Discussing how to get to the right balance between state and market in the energy sector so the reform was done between 1984 in the 98 the first government of the Fernando Cardoso administration in Brazil and Before the reform what we get was a few state-owned Companies there was a holder Electrobras and it was a vertically bundled Industry that means that generation transmission and distribution where actually Now I can't see it's even worse. Okay. Thank you All right now maybe Better for you to follow so you have here and left column the pre-reform situation and Of course, there were problems with this kind of industry There was a financial crisis The state was not any longer able to supply to provide the financial resource to the investment in the huge Hydro power plants with long term construction and return on investment periods so the The previous situation that allowed this state-owned at system to endure and actually led to Brazil will have in striking high renewable share In the overall energy and electricity generation For for instance in 1999 at Brazil had 90% 90% of all electricity was generated through hydro power and This situation was made feasible by a mix of Public funding and also soft loans from International agents 60 to 40 percent, but this was not any longer Feasible giving the size of the system and also a lot of Conditionalities and constraints on the soft loans from agents like the World Bank Because of environmental concerns in building large hydro power plants so the government also was in a The Brazilian economy as a whole after the Monetary over the foreign debt and the public finances were facing a very difficult period so they needed to privatize to sell Some actives so the reform was as in other countries led to the privatization of The transmission and the distribution the generation they had not the time to do it there was the vertical unbuddling of the industry and There was a federal power regulatory Board that was created and they did to have a Competitive generation banning the monopolies attracting foreign investor and private funding and We've moved from centralized planning with a whole List of projects to indicative planning. So This situation Actually As in other countries Was following more or less the the model of the UK reform the problem isn't in Brazil with the Overwhelming role by hydropower there was actually a failure to generate incentives for the private sector to Take this investment in large hydropower plants because even if the electricity price would go up To recover the sums spent in acquisition of the state-owned Utilities the problems that the risk a Version of the private sector for long-term projects Also the environmental Certains over getting violent license Made that actually the supply capacity has not followed and we had a power crisis in imposing 20% cuts on households by the end of last century so In during this period there was also the negative performance that hydropower Share was decreased from 90% to 80% It was done too fast this reform just in five years against 15 years even in the UK And of course electricity price increase have put on a heavy heavier burden financial burden low-income class where the share of Electricity expenses increased dramatically compared to the household income So we have some figures in Brazil. There was already good access to electricity urban areas in Before the reform it was 68% in rural areas to us increase not so much but to 74 so overall Average electrification has a slowly increased from 92 to 95% Also is more increase of more than 10% in average household electricity consumption, but More than 80% of increase in the tariffs and then connection fees as well. So We've the political context Changed after two terms to four years terms of the Cardozo administration the Lula government for eight years Also to four years terms Did the reform of the previous reform stop privatization? Of course have no renationalization of distribution Which was kept private, but the generation Was still in the hands of state-owned companies is still today and there was the creation of a federal Planning agents EP as a research and planning arm of the Ministry of Energy who actually Got back to normative planning determines according to the Demand prospects that the privatized utilities have to give the government have to say how much power they Need in the next five years and they are bound to have contracted the Generation to meet that demand and the government takes care of what Plants have to be Built and where so the hydropower potential of river basins can be fully Explored because when in hand of the private sector sometimes sites that could generate say 1,000 megawatt We're just equipped with 200 megawatts and they were flooding all the Possibility to have the 800 megawatts just to give you an example So there was a kind of predatory use of natural resources by the private sector so this hydropower potential now is being tapped and There was a key Key Feature of this new planning is that the tendering is based for The project already decided by the government already with the environment to license the environment to permit that so the risk For the private sector is considerably lower. It is a reverse auction. That means that The the winner is the consortium that actually will build that project and Will have the Lower electricity price to the consumer so the model privileges the modesty of the electricity prices and The National Development Bank has been very key together with the state owner power generation utilities to make it feasible a public private partnership to fund this large rise of power plants but also Made possible a fast increase of wind power in Brazil as in other places and Hydro has stabilized at 80% which already an achievement In the last ten years so this actually in overall energy consumption Brazil taking also the fuel the heat demand Brazil had in Nearly half 49% of overall and energy consumption would come from renewables mainly hydropower and ethanol and baguettes from sugar cane and also renewable charcoal from eucalyptus Plantations now from 90 90 to 2000 this share of renewables dropped from 49 to 41 percent partly due to lack of investment in hydropower And from 90 from the year 2000 2010 after this reform of the reform it was back from 41 Increased again to 45% of overall energy in the country is renewable so there was also Improvement in the social impacts because of stronger role of the federal regulatory board in Requiring specified the number of new electricity connections So universal access to every household in the country is target for next year 2015 and the program to do that was replayed from the Replaced from the previous light for a light in the countryside the name of the previous program to extending electricity access to this light for all and a brief comparison of the two programs Shows how the new program has channel more resources significant models sources near Point 37% of the GDP against point 25% and Connected to point million households So now the excess of a brutal households that was increased from 68 to 74 percent in the previous program Now has reached 90 percent. So Electricity access in Brazil next year May be very close to 100 percent to all the households So Finally the lessons learn and policy recommendation that we can draw from this case is Mainly the danger of automatically Translating translating international regulatory trends for managing public utilities to a national context We have to address domestic Circumstances specificities for in the case of Brazil the natural resource Endowment in hydro power resources for instance and of course we have to manage Concerns about extension of electricity assets and afford the ability which is a key part of access of course and The adaptive policy learning and the change the reform of the reform is also interesting aspect so There was a kind of back-and-forth. So actually Didn't go back to the previous situation But it's more like a compromise in the middle way with greater state-led planning but a mixed Economy of provision and particularly much more room for the private investment in Generation which is absolutely key for the expansion of the system so I think that is also important to check the Impacts on the environment particularly the share of renewables and also the social impacts as Electric access. So this kind of report must take these concerns aboard and actually provide a specific programs targets to Take care of the possible Negative impacts on low-income classes. Thank you


Check it out when I want to be a hero I ain't changed for the rest of the age I'm whatever they think, I won't bow I'm gonna be out, out, out, play Gonna do that, dance with the feeling suit So soon I'll be left out to the cold blood I ain't too bad, I'm not too much Out, out, out, play


How you going mate? What's your name buddy? Alfie. Alfie. Good to meet you Alfie. I'm calm. You're calm? Yeah. So what do you think is about this statement on the sign? I don't even know what it means mate. Can you explain it to me? Okay so a live auction is where they sell off cattle to other farmers so they have them in this big cell yard and they bid on bid on them and they sell calves and you know pigs and lambs and I'm saying that it's the slave trade what do you think about that? It's not. It's not? No because it's an animal isn't it? It's an animal and we've been doing it for like millions of years, centuries. So if it's wrong why try and fix it? If it's wrong why try and fix it. So we well so animals can't be enslaved and also we we've been enslaving each other for thousands of years too just because we've done something for a long time do you think that justifies us still continuing to do it today? Well no because the slave trade in that it was people on people and as you know people on people it's not good but with the slave trade of animals that they're made to be killed ain't they? Animals eat other animals we just overdo it I admit to that we overdo it yeah we should cut down on it yeah but okay so animals do something to each other in the wild or whatever do you think that justifies our behavior in a civilized society and also you said they're just animals or something along those lines I can't remember you don't think our slavery is only a human on human that's what you said you don't think animals can be victims of slavery? No. So what is it about them that sort of exempts them from being victims of slavery? Well I think what exempts them from being slaves is how do I put it? It would be like a slave would still get money or something wouldn't they? No no slaves are property they are used. Yeah but you if you looked in history they'd still get a house or something or they'd still be treating bad. Not necessarily a slave is owned by their owner and they might have been had slaves that have had you know different granted different rights of freedom but they're there at the end of the day they're owned by their yeah they're owned animals are owned people were owned they were yeah yeah but we have rights protecting us now and are you saying we should just let animals roam free? No I'm just saying do you think that the fact that we treat them as property and as products do you think that that's slavery but you're saying that animals can't be enslaved there's something about them that makes them exempt from being slaves? I'm just wondering what you thought that was? What characteristic they possess that we don't? Characteristic that we don't. So we obviously have something special about us that means something special about us but it's that thing of you can't find something special about an animal can you? Yeah they were they sent in the same really ain't they? Well not necessarily but they they let's talk about what we have in common like we're all sentient we feel pain and suffer we want to live so do animals they value their lives and families they don't want to die. They don't have value to anything no. If you've got to think about it yeah you're you're trying to put an animal into a human intelligence a bit yeah. Not necessarily well I talked about what we had in common yeah and we have we share intelligence we share intelligence don't we?


A lot of runners and triathletes you'll notice will utilize that tape job.  They like that compression and added just a smidgen of stability that can be helpful to help, you know, get them through the game and get them through that little bit of pain that they're currently with.


On October 7th, 2023, the Cow football team played against Oregon State in an offensive showdown, with the final score being 52-40 Oregon State. This game was part of homecoming weekend, where Cow welcomed alumni and parents, hosting events, rallies, and of course, the football game. Between different events, rallies, and the game, what could be seen at all is the Cow Band. Performing across multiple days and multiple events, their biggest show came during halftime, with the band playing and marching to the songs of Rihanna in front of 35,000 fans. Danielle Payope is the student director of the Cow Band. I spoke with her on the planning and selection of music for each show, alongside the general structure of the Cow Band. A lot of what I do is coordinating our performance schedule, so I will have people reach out to the Cow Band saying, hey, I'd like to request a performance, I'll be the one to coordinate that. During the football games, you'll see me conducting on the podium during those, and we'll do everything with a team of six members. We are called the Music Activities Committee. We will organize all the musical logistics, so we'll run rehearsals. We'll arrange music sometimes. Anything that's music related is my business. Most of the people who do the marching, that's our stunt committee that's led by our drum major, Chloe Souter, show work with each member of the stunt committee to plan the charting for the shows. For this show specifically, we have a very specific set of arrangers that come from our alumni. They're our director, and sometimes our students. Our last half-time show is actually arranged by students in my committee, which is really cool. And we'll sometimes work with the stunt committee to make sure some of these transitions fit really well with the music. I really love our leadership structure. It's very unique compared to other marching bands, because we are one of the only student-run bands in the nation. We work through what's called the committee system, and each committee is on a different step of the pyramid. So as student director, I am on our executive committee with the drum major, our public relations director, our director, Matzodowski, senior manager, and executive secretary. Each member of XCOM leads another committee, and then each single member of those committees leads another committee. So you can see that it's like a pyramid. While planning and selecting the music is one part, there's still a matter of planning and charting the marching performances. I spoke of Chloe Souter, the drum major and head of the stunt committee, and Marianne Hahn, who was responsible for charting the halftime performance on the seventh. I'm the drum major of CalBand this year, so I'm basically in charge of coordinating the stunt committee, which Marianne is a part of, and then also just basically all of our marching and visual aspects that we put on the field. And I'm a stunt member on our committee. All of us help her do everything, and each of us on the stunt committee also charts a halftime show for each home game. With the performance being based on the music of Rihanna, I asked Marianne how each show's theme is selected. In March, around March, we have a whole thing called cut tape voting. It's which any band member is open to submit a cut tape. And what a cut tape is, is like a collection of songs under a theme. And we vote the whole band votes on which cut tapes they like best. And then from there, we finalize which seven cut tapes we want for the show. For this upcoming show, the first thing that I was considering when charting it is the fact that we only have one week to rehearse the show. There are certain techniques in our halftime shows that are harder to execute than other techniques. So I tried to put in the most straightforward ones in our show. And I also tried to make the show intuitive in terms of the transitions. And finally, I asked Chloe and Marianne what they were most excited for in the upcoming show. Marianne has put in the Tom Holland Umbrella dance block, which I am so grateful to be a part of, so I'm very excited to show that off. I'm also really excited to see the dance block, because we've been doing rehearsals since last week for the dance block specifically also. While the result of the football game was not what some cow spectators had hoped for, the cow band performance still remained. There to entertain spectators week in and week out. With CalTV News, this is Christian Sam. I'll see you all soon.