As everyone is having less and less children, Asian Americans are asking themselves, is it my Asian duty to have kids?  That's your duty. Yeah, that does sound like a lot of pressure, but anyways, guys, we're gonna talk about this because there was this viral post on Reddit in the Asian American forum that was asking, hey, anyone planning to have kids or not to have kids?  Yeah, and plus there's actually some TikTok memes that went viral about them as well, so let's play those right now. We're Asians in our 40s and unmarried. Our parents wanted us to marry a doctor, now they'd be happy if we married anyone. We're Asians in our 40s and unmarried.  We're Asians in our 40s and unmarried, and we started the yellow fever trend. We're Korean, we're 40s, well, yeah. We're Asians. We're Asians in our 40s and unmarried. I still get shocked watching kissing scenes, Korean drama. We're Asians in our 40s and unmarried. We've never shaved our legs. We're Asians in our 40s and unmarried, and a stick of deodorant lasts us a one whole year. I'm an Asian in my 40s. I'm a man dating an Asian in her 40s, unmarried.  Oh my God, I'm a man dating an Asian in her 40s. Help me.  So these memes are becoming more and more common and a lot of people are saying they relate to them. Yeah, and I think, David, why do people relate to them? Is it like, because people, a lot of Asians who worked hard in their life or went to college, they got their corporate job or they got this and this job, maybe they became a doctor or whatever, they're weighing the options of like, should I even have kids, do I want kids or is it my duty as an Asian to keep the bloodline going? Like, does it matter? Well, Asian grandparents and parents, they typically care a lot and they feel comfortable expressing it to you very blatantly. Anyway, guys, we're gonna break it down. Make sure you like, subscribe and turn on your notifications. But you know what is gonna be a great substitute if you're not able to give your parents grandchildren?  Sorry, you guys were too late, but please check back in because it will be restocked in a little while. I just think that, man, it just varies so much family to family. And I noticed that the more like grad school you focus on, it's sort of like that movie Idiocracy. It's almost like when the both the parents went to grad school and they're hyper-educated and they got their career tree and their career arc in their specific industry that they're dedicated to, it's almost like unlikely they're gonna have more than one or maybe two kids, but a lot of them trend-wise are opting Andrew to have zero. People are going for the dink, the dual income, no kids, they wanna travel around the world, have nice things.  That, I understand, I actually think that when you come from such a high-pressure environment and not all Asian families are like this, but if your Asian family did put you under a lot of pressure that finally you're just like, oh, I don't want more pressure to have kids. What, now I gotta pop out grandchildren for you? I gotta raise grandchildren for you? Well, not only that, those kids, Andrew, that you feel pressure to have, you gotta pressure those kids so the cold can turn into diamonds.  I think you should have at least one kid and continue the generation. Now whether they're full Asian, part Asian, it doesn't matter, I don't even care if they're mixed, it doesn't matter, just have a kid because there does need to be a next generation that comes from like good families and I'm not saying like every other family. Who are you to tell me what I should do? Well, let me ask you this, I'm not telling you what to do, your choice, your body, but I said, what else are you gonna do for the world? What'd you make all that money for? What'd you get educated for? You're not gonna pass it down to somebody? No, so they can give it to the resorts in all the other countries when they're traveling. So you're just gonna have all this money and you're gonna pour it into tipping waiters, you're gonna buy it, put it into products, material things, iPhones, MacBooks. Right, the nicest, nice cameras, nice strips.  More Instagram photos on vacation, Bali, Bali, Bali, Cancun, South Africa, Peru, boom, boom, Thailand, China, Seoul, you're gonna do, get all the surgeries, that's fine, whatever, listen, that's up to you, but I'm just saying, you're probably already living life like you're gonna have something to pass down. Because if you are for sure not having kids, then don't save any money.   You're already setting yourself up for it. Okay, well you believe in having the kids. I think it really just comes down to the family you're born into. Like I noticed a lot of my Southeast Asian friends, Andrew, they're already two, three, four. We know somebody with five kids right now, but then I noticed other people I know, they're like, they're married in their 40s and they don't have kids. Dude, I have a friend who's Filipino and his wife of Vietnamese, so not surprising. They have four kids. That's my roommate from college.  I also think it depends on your opportunities. What is your village looking like? Are your brothers and sisters having kids? Are your cousins having kids? Are you guys all living in the same city or one city over for each other so you guys can coalesce and share resources, right? Because it also depends on your outlook on the future, Andrew. There was an article that said today's teenagers anxious about their futures and disillusioned by politicians. People are concerned about species extinction, widespread disease, unlivable heat, ecosystem collapse, cities menace my rising seas and rising housing costs. I will say this, man, these politicians gotta be better people. These politicians are terrible out here, man. They're all either pedophiles or corrupt people or rude and dickheads. Or they're hanging out at Epstein's. Or whatever, I don't know what these politicians are up to but they gotta do a better job, man. Everybody from Mr. Trump to all these other people on the other side, they gotta do a better job. I know this Chinese girl and her mom actually told her because she's getting worried because the girl's 28 now. She got worried and was like, yeah, why don't you just have a baby? Because even if the guy changes, the baby will always stay with you. That's hilarious. That's how pressured she wants to have a grandchild. She told the daughter to just have the baby what they random dude. Well, give it a shot, but if it doesn't work out, she's like, the baby will always stay with you. Right, and if that family has the means to always help support that baby, then the baby will always have means to live and be raised a good baby. Yeah, I mean, that's theoretically, if you come from a good family, that's not the worst thing to do. If your family got a little bread. Yeah, if your family got a little money, that's not the worst idea. Obviously guys, they're probably gotta freeze their sperm after 45. There is a biological element, Andrew. They recommend that women freeze their eggs before 35. So obviously it is different from men and women. Obviously a woman that made the original TikTok meme, it's probably like she's never gonna have kids. Right, right, right. But Andrew, Robert De Niro just had a half Chinese baby at 80. Oh, it's half Chinese? Yeah. Shout out to Robert De Niro. I never thought Robert De Niro would be holding his daughter and it just literally looks like a Chinese child. Nice. Anyway, let's just get into the comments section. Somebody said, yikes, man, you can't be in your 40s with a receding hairline, you're out of shape, that sounds brutal. Well, he's talking about like single life, right? Like how fun is it gonna be, right? Right, right. Other people said, what's it like to watch your parents gradually descend into a state of despair? I mean, if there is family to family, right? Some parents are gonna feel that despair, others are just like, they're chilling. Yeah. Somebody said, having an upside down pyramid distribution chart across many countries structurally will just be not good. Right. Like from a economic standpoint, who's gonna take care of the older people? Is the economy gonna be dynamic enough? Of course, a lot of people are worried about that. A lot of people are saying anybody in a first world country is essentially slowing down and or South Korea last year, 0.8 replacement rate, 2.25. That's way off. Yeah, that's rough. Other people just talking about how they had to struggle with it, the Confucian filial piety to have kids, but they finally came to terms with it. And I think it's not like about like, oh, feel, I'm not telling you to have the obligation to feel like you gotta repopulate the earth. Like don't have four kids if you don't want four kids. I'm just saying even have one. One kid you could do. You can do it in the city too. I know plenty of people raising one kid in the city. Yeah, I think having, I heard that like having the second kid makes it three times more complicated. Yeah, I could see that. Yeah, I'm just saying have a kid. Contribute something. For example, I actually have a, and we have a cousin who got married to somebody that was 27 when he was 46. Right, a little older. Yeah. But they have, what, two kids? Yeah, they're two kids. It worked out healthy. Somebody said, I have to end my bloodline because I had a traumatic childhood and I do not want to continue any of the trauma. Listen, if you honestly believe that, then don't have kids. Don't have kids. Somebody said, I hate kids personally. They're effing annoying. That's it, yeah?   Somebody said as long as ever since my brother had kids, nobody asked me about my plans anymore. I'm a female and I'm 37. Somebody said kids in this economy, forget about it. I think a lot of it does come down to the village around you, though. If you have the systems, if you have the money, are you living in the burbs? Are you in the middle of a career arc?  Yeah, you're probably gonna need to take a more sedentary desk job if you want to have kids because what are you gonna do? Be traveling every week and you got a kid at home, it's too crazy. Yeah, I just also think everybody has a very high standard for how they want to live and I understand that feeling because I want to live in a nice place in New York City, that's cool. But also, I think some of our, we got spoiled. So we spoiled ourselves and now we don't want to take the hit of our lifestyle. Right, you're talking about millennials, Gen X or even in the future, Gen Z. I think ultimately, man, it just depends on the situation. People gotta be, like, you just gotta be deliberate about your situation, man. So what are the things, no, be more specific. For example, like the top three things that you want to check off before you have a kid. I think for me, I would like to be in a nice suburb that has a lot of other families that I relate to that are in a similar situation with kids around the same age range. I think raising kids on an island sounds really miserable because what, you can't share advice, you can't share stories, who are your kids gonna play with? Let's say you only have one kid and you don't want to have four or five kids yourself. That kid's gotta be socialized and play with other kids but that's only gonna be possible if everybody's around the same age range, at least on a kid level, whether the parents are the same age range or not. So I think that, you know, people gotta make decisions, right? If they're, the reason why I think South Korea has a 0.8 lifestyle and everybody wants to live in Seoul, but the property is hyper-expensive in Seoul, Shanghai, Tokyo, wherever you wanna say it.  I wanna send my kid to a competitive preschool, get my kid into a competitive elementary school. It just turns into this whole thing where I just, I think people just feel like it's gonna be so stressful to give their kids like what, quote unquote, like the best of everything. Well, are you scared? Does that scare you from having kids? Then don't have kids. But if you're not scared and you wanna step up to the plate and you wanna contribute your offspring to the world and to the future because you think that there is gonna be a future than optimistic, well-to-do, well-educated parents should have kids. Yeah, so what if, if you believe that the human species is gonna go extinct in 300 years, should you still have kids? No, if that's your belief. Hey guys, let us know what you think in the comments section below. There's no answer to this. Like we said, you look at a lot of late-stage capitalistic environments around the world, the birth rate way below replacement. Let us know what you think about it. Is it your duty? Do you care? What have you seen in your family? Let us know in the comments section below. Until next time, we'd hop on boys, we out. Peace.


Welcome to the Bogleheads chapter series. This episode was hosted by the Metro Boston Bogleheads chapter and recorded April 23, 2022. It features Chris Pedersen of the Merriman Financial Education Foundation, discussing several simple and effective portfolios, which offer massive diversification appropriate for both accumulation and retirement stages. Bogleheads are investors who follow John Bogle's investing philosophy for attaining financial independence. This recording is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as personalized investment advice. We're fortunate enough to have Chris Pedersen from the West Coast with us here today. And Chris volunteers at the Merriman Financial Education Foundation, a nonprofit run by Paul Merriman with the goal of providing financial education and tools to investors to make informed decisions. For several years I've been listening to the Paul Merriman's podcast, and I heard about Chris's research. A few months ago I watched a presentation Chris did in 2020 on the topic he's going to speak about today. And I was impressed by the research that Chris and the Merriman Foundation have done, and also how Chris can take complicated data analysis and explain it in a clear, concise way. Chris, I thought I'd start by asking you a few questions so our audience can get to know more about you. Sounds good. Okay. You were an engineer working in Silicon Valley until you retired. How did you meet Paul Merriman and how did you get involved with the Merriman Foundation? Well, I was an engineer in Silicon Valley and I was, you know how you get that kind of spidey sense that maybe a change is coming and maybe retirement is coming. I kind of thought that was what was in my near future and I knew that that meant I needed to become a better investor. So I started listening to podcasts, reading lots of books, and I was like you, I was impressed with the work that Paul did. He just didn't have any conflict of interest. He was motivated by one thing to help people. And so I thought, well, if I could reach out to him, maybe I could volunteer. That was something my mom always did. She volunteered to work with all kinds of impressive people. And to my surprise, Paul said, yes, he said, I've got some cool projects, you know, would you want to work? He was like, great. So I started working with him and that gave me access to a huge amount of data and research and perspective and more than anything, the opportunity to try to teach things I was learning because you always learn better when you try to teach. So that was, that was how I got started. I mean, it was really just a phone call. Okay, great. And can you tell us a little bit more as director of research about, you know, the research and the work that you do at the Miriam and Foundation. Yeah, we, you know, we try to essentially become time travelers. We have return sequences that go back to anything from the 1990s to about 1928. And sometimes there are gaps in those return sequences that we have to fill in so we get, you know, we do the very best we can leveraging all the various data sources we can find to do that. And then when we have those, those return sequences for different asset classes going back into the past, we think about interesting investor questions like, you know, does it make sense to rebalance more or less frequently. Does it make sense to just invest in the S&P 500 or diversify more broadly. And we had, up until I joined the organization, all of our work was with fixed allocations, but I wanted to do some work with target date funds which have time varying allocations. So a lot of what I do is building back testers that will take a time varying asset allocation across a lifetime and a number of assumptions about how somebody's cash flows look and figure out how it would have performed in the past. So there's no guarantee the future will be like the past, but we have no way to know what the future would be at all unless we, and we base it on something in the past is the best predictor we've got so it's fun. We work with a lot of really interesting questions and we get a lot of interest. I'm hoping to get some interesting questions at the end of the presentation today and I learned as much from those as I do from the work I do with Paul. Great. Well now that we know a little bit about you and your background. I'm going to turn it over to you. Okay. Go ahead and start. Let me see if we can get this sharing setup right. One thing. One thing Teresa's at the saving of the chat would be at the end of the presentation. If they say, are you seeing the presenter view or are you seeing the presentation. Okay, excellent. Okay. So, I, man, I can't believe it's been two years since I first did this presentation and I hope that this new version can live up to the kind of introduction Teresa gave me. When we did this two years ago, one of the criticisms I got was that our analysis only went back to 1970 so today I'm going to be doing some analysis to go back to 1970 but we're going to extend where we can back to 1928. And that'll give us a scarier picture because it includes the Great Depression but it'll also give us a more realistic picture because from 1970 until now was a relatively strong market for bonds. And by going back to 1928 will include the good news the bad news and everything in between and I think it'll give us more confidence about the conclusions. We're going to talk about simple and effective balanced lifetime portfolios. And before we get started because I'm talking to Bogle heads I have to mention the three best pieces of advice that I remember hearing Jack advocate one was by right the second one was hold tight. And the third was don't peak and I think in many respects. If you had to just give somebody six words those are a wonderful set of six words for investing. The focus of today's presentation is mostly going to be on by right and I know that for for Jack Bogle by right meant the S&P 500 or a total market fund. And I really don't have anything against that I think it's fine I think it's great advice and I think for people who aren't willing to learn more about investing and aren't willing to study it a little bit. It's probably the right place to stop and that's probably why Jack stopped there. I think if you do have an appetite to learn more though there are other opportunities for meaningful this diversification that at least historically have had really significant advantages. So let's talk about what some of those are. When we talk about simple balance portfolios the reason I'm excited about it is that they give us an ability to control the return risk trade off that we're going to get and sometimes even improve the return per unit of risk that we're taking. They give us the ability to have higher safe withdrawal rates or higher survival rates sometimes in retirement at least that's what the history says. And they're easier to manage than 20 stocks or 50 funds or you know, there's a lot of complex ways to get to the same place. But why be complex if you don't need to be so we'll talk about the simple paths and then we'll talk about the trade offs that we give up for that simplicity. What we'll cover today are first of all what balanced portfolios are. Second of all, what we can do with a few funds in a fixed allocation and then third what we can do with a few funds in a time varying allocation like a target date fund. And we'll in each case look at how they differed during accumulation and during retirement because those are dramatically different phases of life and they have different priorities. And finally we'll talk about what we give up by being simple and hopefully have time for question and answer. So balanced. Let's just start with the word what does balanced mean most of us have ridden a bicycle so you know about left and right and staying balanced and. And so one definition is an even distribution of weight enabling someone or something to remain upright and steady. A second definition which starts to get closer to what we're going to talk about today is a condition in which different elements are equal, or in the correct proportions. And then the third and most specific to investing would be an investment strategy which balances risk and return by combining different assets such as stocks and bonds. And we'll look at all of those but let's start just to kind of get our minds going let's start out of category. Let's start with something I'm very passionate about, perhaps even more than investing food. So balanced flavors. If you were to start thinking about trying to be a great chef, you probably have on your mind the idea that you need to balance flavors. And you would probably think of the world, at least I do like, like this, you know there's 10s of 1000s of ingredients there's, you know, tomatoes and chickpeas and onions and steak and cereal, how do I balance them all. The good news is that through science over the course of the last 100 years, chefs have come to realize that there are six underlying key attributes, and that foods kind of cluster in these key attributes and those are spicy sour sweet salty umami and bitter. So some of these attributes balance one another and some of them complement one another, and that you can make fantastically tasty meals by properly selecting among them, and combining them, and that the best things are usually a combination, not just one note, not just salty, not just sweet, the fast foods we eat are just that. But the best foods, the meals that we probably remember the most are usually an artful combination of all of these. Well it turns out you can look at investing much the same way. If we look out at the kinds of stocks or companies we could invest in in the world. There are 1000s 1000s and 1000s of companies, and trying to figure out how you would choose among them and why you would choose certain ones over other ones and which ones might complement one another or which ones might balance one another's a very difficult task but fortunately for us academics have done an exercise much like the food scientists did, and have figured out that there are key attributes both in the fixed income or bond space and in the equity or stock space. So in the fixed income or bond space there are basically two attributes that really matter. One is the length of the bond, or the term. And you can imagine if you are going to, if you think of the bond as a loan if somebody's going to loan you money, or you're going to loan somebody money and buy a bond for one year. It takes up to smaller return or interest rate than if you loan the money for 20 years, because who knows what's going to happen with inflation over 20 years so the longer the term, or the longer the duration of the bond, the more you're going to ask for in terms of a return in interest and and you're likely going to get it credits the similar kind of thing. If you loan the federal government in the United States money they can print money and give it back to you you're going to get paid back, the money may not be worth quite as much, but they could do that. If you loan money to a fly by night business that's on the verge of bankruptcy you're going to ask extortionist rates, and you might get it and so in bonds. So five attributes term and credit, pretty much define about 98 to 99% of the return experience you're going to get in terms of the volatility and the compound annual growth rates in stocks, or equities there are five attributes that the government generally agree upon. The first is market risk and that's the idea that by investing in the stock market, you're going to see the value of your money or your investment go up and down as all kinds of unknowns come to pass you know earnings go up and down the economy changes. There's geopolitical news.  The second one is size smaller companies tend to be more volatile. So investors tend to expect to and get a higher return out of investing in smaller companies, not always, but, but they tend to and particularly higher quality smaller companies and we'll take a look at that in a minute. Value is the third characteristic and this basically says that if you buy parts of the market that are out of favor. They're not inflated in price. You're going to have a kind of a buffer a cushion if you will a margin of safety that potentially will deliver you a higher return in the market that historically has delivered a higher return. The next two qualities are momentum and the quality attribute or factor and momentum basically says things that have been going up continue to go up until they don't. So the trick with momentum is that although it, you know, the, the companies that have been going up tend to continue going up. You don't have to keep watching them and when they start to go down if they go down for a certain amount of time you have to trade out of them so momentum is a more active strategy. And then quality says companies that have better financials or better moats to defend against competition do better so this is all kind of airy fairy and fuzzy but the key takeaway if you back up to the 10,000 foot view is that in the same way that there are these attributes that drive a tasty meal. There are a handful of attributes that drive a high performance portfolio, and we're going to look at how they have actually done in the past and how they performed. But before we do that let's look briefly at how available they are. So if we're looking for market risk, there are literally thousands of us stocks or funds that give us access to market risk. And what I've defined as meaningful access is greater than 30% of the premium that the academics have discovered so pretty much every stock fund you could invest in whether it's a mutual fund or an ETF is going to give you exposure to the market risk that we just talked about. The size risk is available in 1000 plus funds. The value risk is available in about 1000 funds. You can get market size and value risk in about 500 funds in the United States. You can get market size value and quality risk in about 300 funds in the United States. So these would be called small cap value funds, and they are the original multi factor fund. If you go out and look for multi factor labeled funds, you won't find that many. But if you invested in a small cap value fund that also screens on quality, you're in a multi factor fund, and we'll see why that's important in a little bit. If you're looking for funds that deliver meaningful exposure to momentum and quality, they are rare. They're hard to come by. And it's because momentum is a costly attribute to get in the market and involves a lot of trading there's an efficiency associated with that. And if you're looking for quality, too much of it's absorbed in these other funds, everybody tries to screen on quality and the quality specific funds there, there aren't that many. So, if we're looking into somebody's kitchen, they're 401k, they're trying to cook their portfolio what do they have what are their ingredients well, basically they have two staple ingredients they have stock funds and they have bond funds and almost every 401k or iris going to have two of those.  If you're lucky you'll have a small cap value fund, because that's a stronger spice and as we'll see, working with the stronger spices better way to diversify because it's more different it's more different than the fixed income it's more different than the all stock portfolio. So, if we were to look now at how they've performed in the past, do they do what I say, right, do they, did they really could you really buy this, that's another way to look at it, and did it really make a difference and you can test the portfolio visualizer.com. Tuomo runs a great site there it's free, and you can go back test asset allocations into all of these assets that are on the board the value to blend the growth the large the mid and the small. And you can see how they've performed since 1972. And what you'll see, I got to grab a marker here. Is that large cap blend. Yeah. So large cap blend has delivered about a 10.55% annual return. And interestingly, the total market has also delivered about a 10.55% percentage rate of return. And it's come at a cost if you will a behavioral cost of tolerating a 51% worse drawdown. So, you had to be willing to lose 50% of your money on paper, but if you stuck with it and you endured and you didn't bail when the mark was down, you got the return of 10.55%, which isn't too bad that's actually amazingly good. What's interesting is that the total market did about the same thing as large blend. Now how can that be right how can it be that when I add in the mid caps, and I add in the small caps, and I add in the growth and I add in the value I get the same return Well, first of all, the mids and the small don't make up a lot of the market, the bulk of the market, 80 plus percentage of the market is in these large companies, so they just don't have a lot of weight. And the other thing that's true is when you add the value and you add the growth, they cancel each other out you don't have it tilt to either value or growth you end up back at the same place you started you end up with blend. So this area this large cap blend that I've highlighted. That's essentially what you get with the S&P 500. It's also pretty close to what you get with the total market.  You can see you get about six tenths of a percent higher rate of return with a little bit higher volatility, about 4% more worse or worse draw down that you had to tolerate That's a the drawdown is how much your balance declined from its peak, or how much the account got smaller from its peak before it turned around and started coming back up. If you look down here in the bottom left though look at the strong spice 13.94% was the compound rate of return. So that's over 3 percentage points almost three and a half percentage points of compound annual rate of return benefit for spicing the portfolio or investing in the strong spice. And it came with a little bit more volatility now we're a 56% drawdown but not much not much so the return per unit of risk in small cat value is actually the highest of anything on the chart. Interestingly, the worst return per unit of risk is in this bottom right hand corner in small cat growth. So in some respects, there are two lessons here one is you want to spice things with value and small. But the other is you kind of you want to avoid small cat growth you want to avoid that part of the market that's in the bottom right hand corner. And again if you buy the whole market you get them both and they kind of cancel each other out. So let's, let's take a look at what things look like without inflation. Let's look at real returns, and let's simplify it down to our three key ingredients. We've got bonds down here in the bottom left we got stocks up here in the middle and we've got small cat value stocks over on the bottom right, and they kind of form a triangle of returns. Now we're looking at returns that are real which means without the effects of inflation or with inflation removed so we can see how our buying power is increasing. And what you see is that the compound annual growth rate for bonds, this is intermediate term government bonds is very low, it's about 2%. And not surprisingly, that doesn't enable you to take much out safely and retirement it only has a 40 year safe withdrawal rate of a little bit less than 2%. But it's very safe only minus 9% worst case drawdown. If you look at stocks. Now we're talking about a meaningful engine to drive good returns you get 6.8% going back to 1928 that was the median annual compound on annual growth rate after taking out inflation that's really strong. But you had to tolerate a worst case drawdown of 83% and it generated a 3% safe withdrawal rate. You know it's better on safe withdrawal rate but worse on drawdowns. And if we look at small cat value, obviously the highest compound rate of return but also the worst drawdown and interestingly not the best safe withdrawal rate either. The best safe withdrawal rate on this chart is right up here. It's for all stocks. So does that mean we should just be all stocks and retirement. Well, we haven't looked at what happens when you combine these let's take a look at the combinations. So, if we look at the middle of each side so that would be a 5050 combination of stocks and bonds or a 5050 combination of stocks and small cat value or 5050 combination of bonds and small cat value. The highest safe withdrawal rate is actually down here on the bottom now, which is starting to speak to this idea that depending on the meal you want to eat the ingredients that you use may vary. If you want the safest retirement portfolio out of these combinations, it would probably be this one at the bottom. It doesn't have the lowest drawdown, it's got a drawdown of 60% out of the ones on the sides, but it's got a really strong compound rate of return at 6.8%. If you want the lowest drawdown out of these 5050 combos it's right over here. It's the combination of 50% bonds and 50% stocks. These are US stocks by the way going back to 1928. And if you want the highest rate of return. It's over here. It's the combination of the 50% stocks and 50% small cat value. We're starting to play around with mixing this up and if you want all the gory details, if you want to see all the 10% changes I've got it going back to 1928 and 1970 this is out of my book to funds for life. I'm not going to spend any time on this they're just too complex for this but I will make the point that the highest safe withdrawal rates always come from a combination of these asset classes, not from the extremes. And I think that leads nicely into this idea of a balanced portfolio having a little bit of a lot of different things rather than all one. So some of you, if you're still with me or probably thinking but I don't want to cook right I don't want to be combining all these ingredients just give me the fast food meal or give me the microwave dinner. And we can do that we can talk about some microwave dinners some really easy ways to get things done and in fact most of the rest of the presentation will talk about that. And there are two categories that I think are really interesting. The first is a set of funds called balanced funds you can get them from Vanguard in their life strategy funds you can get them from a lot of other providers as well. The second is something called a target bait fund and many of you are probably familiar with it and whether you use it or not you almost certainly know somebody who does because they're the default for a lot of new 401k programs for employers. Let's start by looking at these life strategy funds with fixed allocations, and we'll start by looking at the Vanguard life strategy funds. I've pulled up four of them here. They go from a 20% stock 80% bond allocation to an 80% stock 20% bond allocation. And the way Vanguard describes them as they go from low to moderate to moderate to moderate to high to high risk. That's their their definitions. They're all a balance that tilts a little bit more towards the US like 60% US 40% international, but we can run the back tests and see how they did historically. And what we see not surprisingly is that we set as we add stock we go from a 6.4% median compound annual rate of return to 7.6 to 8.6 to 9.3 it's a pretty steady like 1% increase with each step up in how aggressive we're being. So look what happened to the drawdown risk. You had to take a lot more risk or tolerate a lot more volatility to get it. This 2080 fund had a 20% worst case drawdown. That's not bad. The 4060 even though it only gives you 1% higher compound under annual rate of return had almost twice the drawdown risk and the 6040 was 54% and the 8020 was 66%. So these higher returns accumulate over time but somewhere along the way you're going to have to have conviction to tolerate a much bumpier ride to get it. Now these numbers go back to 1928. If I went back to 1970 they'd be maybe two thirds the size so your ride may not be that bad but it's nice to know it could be right just so that you're ready and ready to stick with whatever investment it is you pick. We can also look inside these portfolios and see which of those key attributes they're firing on and all of these funds fire only on three they fire on the market risk the term risk and the credit risk that's it just three. We can also look and see what their safe withdrawal rates are and kind of interesting. If we look at the safe withdrawal rates they increase across the board the highest is over here with the portfolio that has the bumpiest ride it has the biggest drawdowns, but it also has the highest safe withdrawal rate. So I think the key takeaway here for retiree is that it makes sense to keep your equity engine alive don't get too conservative in retirement, especially if you need a higher withdrawal rate, because having a portfolio that can't withstand whatever withdrawal rate you need increases your risk of running out of money or falling on, you know a bad sequence of returns that basically put you out of business. That was a set of things you can do with one fund all of those are just one fund, but they all fire on only three of these attributes, what would happen if we brought in some more of the attributes if we spiced it up a little bit. Well, why would we want to spice it up. If you go and take a look at Andrew Birkin and Larry Swedra's excellent book your complete guide to factor based investing what one of the really interesting things you'll learn is that factors tend to show up at different times in the market. There are things that when one's going up the other one might be going down or when one's going up a lot the other one might be going up a little. And we kind of knew intuitively when you combine things that zig and zag at different times you have the potential to smooth the ride. And a fact a multi factor portfolio or one that fires on more of these attributes tends to disappoint less often and you can see that over here on the right. The only fund that would be like a total market or S&P 500 fund at five years has about an 18% chance of not delivering the return that you expect. In contrast at five years, a fund that has exposure to market size value and momentum has about a 5% chance of underperforming so the difference there is pretty dramatic. We're talking about a factor of three increase in the likelihood that you're going to get the return that you expect. I think most of us would like that we'd kind of like to have more predictable performance. So let's take those two, two of the two funds we looked at or the four funds we looked at earlier. Let's look at the Vanguard Life Strategy 6040 and the Vanguard Life Strategy 8020 we've already analyzed those. There's something in between a 60% stock for Chris you've muted yourself. How long have I been muted, you muted right about when you first started with the 6040 Vanguard Life Strategy fund and you added your spices. Excellent. Okay. Well, thank you for telling me sorry I have no idea how that happened but I'm glad we're back. Okay, well, so what I've done here on this chart is we've brought back the same analysis we had before with the 6040 stock bond Vanguard Life Strategy and the 8020. And we've slid something in between which is a 6040 so it's the same equity bond mix of the bond on the fund on the left. So we've done it with 35% US small cat value and 25% international small cat value. And the interesting thing is that we get a much higher compound annual rate of return than we do with the other 6040. Not surprisingly, I guess we took more risk right we added in this volatile class our spicy mix of small cat value, but the drawdown the worst case drawdown only went up by 5%. Return per unit of risk is much higher. And interestingly, our return is also higher than the 8020 would have been had we just gone with the Vanguard fund, and our drawdown is better than the 8020 would have been. And why is that it's because of this diversification down here. We have far more working for us. We have the market exposure we have the term and the credit exposure but we also have value and size working for us. So it's a multi factor kind of approach even though we're just doing it with small cat value and total bond funds. The safe withdrawal rates also went up the highest safe withdrawal rates are with this. It seems like kind of an extreme allocation because it's heavy on small cat value. What I recommend that a retiree invest in this portfolio know but as a teaching moment I think I would point out that it might benefit them to have some in small cat value, because it's going to improve the return per unit of risk and it's going to improve improve their resiliency and retirement. So with that that's that's kind of our fixed. That's our fixed allocations let's take a look at time varying allocations. And to set this up. First of all we have to think about why do we change our asset allocations over time. Why would we not just have the same asset allocation our whole lifetime and some people do.  And that may work fine for them, but it's not in line with what most people would describe as our risk capacity as we go through life. I think a stock allocation that's 100% through life works primarily for somebody who's an over saver, and who has incredible behavioral skills as an investor the ability to ignore the ups and downs in the market. But for most of us, especially those of us who are going to be just enough savers. It's really important to understand that our risk profile changes with time. When we're young, when we're over here in this early part of the chart on the left hand side around age 25. If we lost our whole net worth, we've still got a lifetime to work to earn it back. We have 40 years probably of career for earning and letting not just our work earn us money, but letting the market earn us money as well through compounding halfway through our career we've got a lot less. Nearing 65, we're nearly done, you know, most of us are not going to be able to work another 20 or 30 years at age 65, let alone want to. And so our risk capacity is declining with time. And our ability to have the market work for us is declining with time. It's only natural then that our portfolio risk would also decline with time. And the industry taking this into account has invented this amazing tool called a target date fund you can get them from Vanguard now for 0.08%. So eight basis points gets you effectively a robo advisor and what it does. We'll talk about Vanguard specifically but what they do in general in the market. What they do is they follow a path of decreasing allocation to equities and increasing allocation to bonds, and that's called a glide path. So this is an example of the industry average target date glide path on the right hand side and you can see that the equities are declining over time, and the bonds are increasing over time. And they do that, not just to retirement, but through retirement. And if we looked at the Vanguard glide path, you can see it on the right here, you can see that they start. They start ramping down about 40 years before retirement and they ramp through to about seven years after retirement, and their early allocation is about 90% equities. And the way you use these and the way a lot of new investors are defaulted into them in fact, is, is by year. So if I was a new employee at a company, I'd probably get an email that said we're going to invest 3% of your paycheck automatically into the, five years old and I've got 40 years to work the 20 maybe it's the 2065 target date fund. And if I do nothing that's what happens, I can increase it I can change it but a huge amount of today's assets and 401ks are in target date funds. And the question is, is that good, is it good and I think it's not good it's I think it's wonderful and the reason I think it's wonderful is that if we were to look at a lifetime investor, who on first chance when they are faced with this 401k decision says I'm going to put 10% of my income into the target date fund, and they do that for 40 years of working. And then at the end of those 40 years decide to take 4% out the first year and increase with inflation for 30 years of retirement, that 10% that they invested will turn into a pile of money that is much much bigger than well not much much bigger but about the same size to a little bit bigger than everything they earned in real dollars this is this is after adjusting for inflation in real dollars. And they'll have about half of it to spend in retirement and half of it as legacy. So, just pause and think about that for a moment this single investment one tool that you can automate and put in the background for your entire lifetime can double the amount of spending power you have. It's magical it's an incredible tool. I don't think it's perfect, but I think it's designed for the masses and it serves them well, and I think many, many people would be as as well off doing this as 90% of the other choices that they're likely to make. So, it looks like it works, most of the time for most of the people, but does it do exactly what it says it does. Let's take a look. If you went back and looked at a lump sum investor, and you analyzed all of the different months they could have started from. I'm only going to 1970 here but January 1970, February 1970 all these different start months when their career might have begun. When you look at the worst case drawdown that might have been experienced across all of those lifetimes, you get this line down here at the bottom that goes across and it shows that their worst risk exposure is in these early years from age 2728 something like that through about age 40 and then it declines all the way out to retirement it looks like it's doing exactly what it's supposed to do. But there's a problem. And the problem is that it's based on a lump sum investment. Almost no one starts with a lump sum investment saving for retirement, we generally start with practically nothing and contribute monthly. So what happens if we do monthly contributions. Well now we get a totally different picture. Now we don't actually see much risk in these early years at all in fact we see a lot of wasted potential for taking risk, and the worst draw down draw down doesn't occur until age 40. It's about 42% and yes it does decline towards retirement. And why is that how could that be what why what's what's going on here some of you probably know what's going on as contributions. And by the way I've taken these draw down numbers just before the next contribution so they're worst case. But if you ask a young investor when the markets down how bad their investments have done almost none of them have run an IRR calculation and can tell you. They just look at their balance and say well it's bigger than it was last year it doesn't look too bad to me. Some people who advise young investors actually see that. And if you don't believe me we can actually look at it back test here I chose a volatile asset class this is small cat value we started in 1970. And this great out deep drop right here is what a lump sum investor would have experienced, and these shallow dips up here are what the dollar cost averaging or the annual contribution investor experience much much shallower draw and it's because they've got these regular contributions. So, with that in mind, knowing that there's a little more room for risk. We'll analyze this the target date fund, but let's also look at some simple ways we could spice it up. And these are three strategies that come out of our two funds for lifebook one is easy and this is simply a 90 10 allocation 90% to the target date fund 10% to small cat value. And it's not rebalanced during the early years, and then it is nudge withdrawals in the retirement years now what do I mean by nudge withdrawals I just mean you take your whole withdrawal out of which, whichever fund is too big. So you've got a 90 10 allocation if the target date fund is 11% you take your 4% withdrawal from that. If the target date fund is at 91% you take the withdrawal from that. So, it's simple in in my back testing it works pretty well and it avoids having to make a lot of emotional decisions about rebalancing. The last strategy we'll look at is a moderate one that starts at about a 60% allocation to us small cat value and declines all the way down to the full target date fund 100% and the target date fund in retirement and that's the moderate to fund for life. And then the last one, let's just be crazy and we'll go aggressive we'll go hyper aggressive will be 100% target date fund in the early years because remember there wasn't enough risk there. So let's see if this just pushes us over the edge. And we'll ramp that down to 20% in retirement because it might improve the safe withdrawal rates and retirement. And let's see how those did. So if we if we take a look at it. What we see is that the target date fund is, these are the 1928 numbers, it's going to potentially make you tolerate a 65% drawdown but it's going to give you a very solid 8.5% rate of return for that. And it's going to have the diversification we expect just credit term and market. This easy strategy gives you about an extra 1% in return, slight increase in the drawdown, a little bit of a bump in the drawdown towards retirement that's not ideal, but a much more diversified portfolio down here. In terms of the attributes the portfolio is firing on. And then the moderate one the moderate to fund for life is about the same return but it tames the risk out here by retirement so this is lower. And it brings some of that risk into the early years. And interestingly, it's not as diversified why is it not as diversified and we've got that 100% allocation to small and value in the early years. Well the reason it's not as well diversified is there aren't as many dollars in those early years so even though it sounds extreme to pull the asset allocation up in the early years. You're not taking your risk with a huge amount of dollars so it doesn't tilt it that much and then the most aggressive one over here, obviously the highest return comes with the highest risk, but the highest amount of diversification. And I think I think that this is intriguing but if I was a young person what I'd really want to know is, how did they do it multiplying my buying power. How did my real dollar benefit from doing this and to do that we need to calculate what I call a real dollar multiplier and the way we'll do that is we will remove inflation to get the real future balances and the real contributions. And we will divide the real balance that we have at 40 years. That's the inflation adjusted, you know, real purchasing power by the total real contributions that we've made and when we do that. We get a really interesting set of numbers down here at the bottom. Every single one of these strategies did better than double your purchasing power across a 40 year period of accumulation across all of the timeframes that we looked at. That was the worst. They all did better than double. The place where they really differ is in upside. The target date fund gives you about an upside the best case scenario of multiplying your purchasing power by about five and a half. The easy two funds for life is a little more than seven. The moderate two funds for life was almost eight and the aggressive strategy was about 14. So the averages are between the two and the medians or the expected values are between the two. So each of these strategies as it takes more risk is likely leading to you having more purchasing power later in life which I think is powerful. That covered accumulation, but what about what about retirement to do retirement we're going to use a different multiplier we're going to look at the nest egg multiplier which is the real withdrawals plus the real and balance divided by the initial nest egg. So that's all the money to get to spend in retirement plus pass on to errors divided by the initial nest egg. And what we see here is that again there's this growing kind of increase between, by the way, I've combined the target date fund and moderate in this column because they're the same thing they're all 100% target date fund in retirement. So that's about a 7.2 kager. The easy one is about a 7.7 kager. The aggressive is about 8.7. And because the aggressive is tilting us more towards the US I added another aggressive over here that includes a mix of us and international small cat value. And it performed a little bit more poorly but it's better balanced in terms of its geography. The other part though, most of you who are watching have probably already picked up on it is that these ran out of money in retirement. Now this is a 40 year retirement so it's a long time of 4% withdrawals. They all at some point from 1928 to 2021 on one of those scenarios ran out of money, but what's more meaningful is probably their survival rates, and that's right here. And they all did pretty well. So the target date fund had a 99% survival rate for 30 years and an 88% survival rate for 40 years. As we go across the chart, they get better. The easy to fund for life was 97% roughly in terms of the 40 year safe withdrawal rate, or I mean survival rate and the aggressives both had practically 100%. And down at the bottom if we look at their safe withdrawal rates, the best safe withdrawal rates actually the aggressive strategy.  The worst 1.1 is for the target based fund but they're all about the same 1.1 1.2 and the upside benefit just comes with more tilt towards the more volatile assets of small and value. So the final topic what do we give up by being simple. Well, I've analyzed a very complicated Merriman target date portfolio using 13 asset classes. It's a two fund for life right and a two fund for life aggressive strategy. And the answer is not much. The two fund for life aggressive actually had the higher return. Very slight I'd say that they're for all intents and purposes they're the same. But what this says is with two funds, you could do almost everything you can do with 13, and it's much much easier to manage. The things that we give up though some real things and the most important one is probably tax efficiency when you bundle your equities and your bonds together in a single fund you can't. If they're all in a tax deferred fund a Roth IRA or 401k, you're fine. But if they're in a taxable account you'd really like to separate out the bonds and put them in the tax deferred account so that's that's a cost to simplicity you can't do that. The account location is precisely. You also can't control individual attributes of the portfolio is precisely you can't you don't have independent control over the US international small large value growth splits.  You know if large cab blend is the hot thing last year if it had the best return. You don't hold that fund, and you might regret that so that's that's an issue and then personal preference, some people just like the complexity. So in summary, I'm simple balance portfolios can broadly diversify across companies countries factors age. And they can improve the likely return per drop per drawdown risk in accumulation and improve your safe withdrawal rates and survival rates and resiliency and then balances and retirement. But they do give these few things up customization tax efficiency, the chance to always own what's hot, and the chance to be with the herd. I encourage you to look for more on our website to sign up for the newsletter and get Paul and riches excellent book we're talking millions. And if you want the deep dive into two funds for life by my book all the profits go to the foundation and just quick disclaimer. So everything in this presentation is informational I can't be your advisor and I'm sure it has some mistakes so no


If you feel something's wrong, it probably is. Seize opportunities. If you see a chance to join an exciting project or take on a new role, go for it. Even if you only feel like you check off three-fourths of the boxes, you're probably more than qualified, so go for it. Please, women, never accept the first offer anymore. It's what we don't do either. It's not just women that should empower other women. Everyone should empower women. Take your place. Don't be afraid to speak up in meetings. Be bold. Believe in yourself. When you hear a woman being interrupted, call it out and say that you're really interested in hearing what she has to say. Don't underestimate your female colleagues. Do promote people based on merit, not gender. Always be true to yourself and to trust your intuition. Diversity is a must. Diversity creates more profitable companies, but it's also much more fun to work in a diverse and profitable company. Behind every successful man, there's a strong woman. You can do it. So I'm the proud mother of two daughters, and one of the things that I wanted to give them in life is the belief in themselves and the belief that they can have a career and still have also a meaningful private life so that you can be a woman, be ambitious, have a career and still be a good mom and a good friend and sister or whatever. Many places in the world, women are losing their rights. The right to education, the right for an abortion. Don't take your rights for granted. Keep fighting. We don't take it for granted. We keep on working in a very structured way. I work and worked with different kind of leaders, but the way how women work always inspired me. And I could adapt a lot for my daily business, daily work and for my leadership. Believe in yourself. You're capable of much more than you think you are.


And we are going to study what will be the shape of indifference curve if the consumer is having a bundle of the goods which are complement to each other. Before going to decide the shape of indifference curve, we should know that what are the attributes or the features that make certain commodities complement to each other. Two commodities will be complement to each other if the both commodities they are quite distinguishable to each other. It means one commodity has different utility as compared to the other but the consumer is going to utilize always them in a particular proportion and in a particular combination. So consumer will utilize them number one in the form of a combination and number two the proportion by which the two commodities will be utilized that will remain constant throughout its utilization. And number third, these two commodities they will be having the utility always when it is in the form of combination means their single utility and the other whatever it will be but for consumer their maximum utility is in the form of the combination. So if these properties are followed by the commodities they will be complement to each other. So the fixed proportion between two and number two the complement to each other whenever they are utilized they will make the completion to each other. So the process of utility they will meet in the form that if pen we have to utilize would require the pen ink. So it cannot be utilized separately so they will complement to each other and the elasticity of substitution between two is never possible. So keeping in view because they both are not having the same utility they both are not having the same features they both are not having the homogeneous features so we cannot say that they both are indistinguishable rather they both are very different it is like this that we are going to utilize that one vehicle cannot be utilized without the fuel. So the features of vehicle is different and the features of the fuel is different but whenever we have to utilize in collective because consumer is going to derive the utility from their both combination to travel. So travel is not possible until and unless the vehicle is having fuel or if I say consumption it is just like this that you are going to ask your mother at the breakfast that to give you two slices of bread with one egg so this will make one complete breakfast. So any type of the combination that we are going to utilize that will be complement but when we say the perfect complement it means they both will be might be identical in nature and they both are identical in nature means now they both are not indistinguishable but they are identical but they will be complement to each other so and here the example will be the best example will be a pair of shoe in which the right shoe is the complement of the left shoe with the only difference that their shape will be somewhat different and we can distinguish them with the right and left features. And any price difference either it is going to affect the price of X1 either it is going to affect the price of X2 but this will not affect the total bundle because the total bundle will only be purchased up to a similar that level where it can be utilized in combination so its combination will be affected only and only when the prices of the both goods will be utilized if the price of one good will be increased we have to decrease the total bundle not only the one so the choice between any two we will make from this example we can say so if anybody if has to increase just the right shoes so to complete the total pair he or the she has to purchase also the right part of the shoe so complement will go always in the same proportion so keeping in view this shape we can say the utility derived from the combination of these two goods is possible only at the vertex where the both they are combined and either utility is decreased either utility is going to increase so the in difference curve they will move only along the vertex so if I am going to make various combination here we can say that there are the various combination of this thing that this is on Y axis one commodity that was the left shoe and on X axis the other commodity that is the right shoe and if any consumer has to utilize one pair it will make at this point so if on right side we say that the right shoes they are going to increase like at this point this change will be of no use to the consumer until and unless he is provided with the same number of the left shoes and when these will be provided they both will be making the consumer to shift from this point to this point so this is the combination that makes the consumer at the higher level so this in difference point will be less and this B will be of higher level so like this the C will be of higher level but only utilization or the possibility of working is at the vertex likewise if I make an other example so here we can say there is any other combination of the goods so now there are the three combinations one combination when we are going to say mean four and four if X1 is utilized in the form of four and X2 is also utilized in the form of four so this is one combination and if this is the combination so consumer will move whatever like this to this so means all the combination will move to the right of and now if the combination is like this that 8 units of X and 4 units of X2 it means either this combination so we can say consumer is at this point so if it is like this so consumer is making this combination so if this is the combination consumer whenever has to be going on the higher level he again will maintain the combination like this now this will be his shape and this will be the straight line and if there is the third combination in which consumer is having X1 in the form of four and X2 in the form of eight we can say now the consumer is having this much level and if consumer is having to increase its consumption he will increase again in the form of the straight line and now he will again move on like this so if we will join these points this again can be in the form of the straight line it means for the complements consumer will always have in difference curves in the form of the L shape and either consumption is going to decrease or increase consumer has to move in the form of the straight line that is going to join the vertex of the indifference curve and this behaviour of the consumer will remain same whatever the commodities he is going to utilize but if these commodities they are complement and the perfect complement to each other thank you


Legal State Government has launched their weighted legal sustainable development goals grant. According to the Special Advisor to Governor Sao Lu and SDGs Solakwe Haamund, the initiative offers grants to civil society organizations, social entrepreneurs and non-governmental organizations operating within the state. This is expected for the implementation of critical projects bearing key relevance to the actualization of the SDGs in the state. The official launch of the legal sustainable development goals SDGs impact grants challenge. The competition is believed to enable the state government create a broader based collaboration with the civil societies, NGOs and social entrepreneurs who are already implementing solutions to achieve the SDGs. Those who are working creating change around Legos to bring them together to mainstream the SDGs. We're going to pick three projects across each of the 17 SDGs and work with them to implement these projects over a period of three months bringing volunteers together to deliver on that project. Now what that does is it amplifies some of the good ideas that many of them have and we all know NGOs are very resourceful they're doing a lot of great things with very limited budgets but it also helps them in a very difficult environment such as the one we're in now where resources are quite lean we also thought it was good to help the NGOs to also be able to continue the good work that they're doing. The mandate of our office is to ensure that we implement all the SDG goals in order to meet the agenda 2030 and the best way to do it we can't do it alone it's also engaged other people who have been working in different spheres to ensure that they also realize the SDGs. The special advisor charged Legosians to be closer to the government embrace the project and join the impact making challenge. Really at the end of the day all we're saying is this government cares this government cares for impact makers and we know that we need that partnership to be able to deliver on the themes agenda and on the SDGs. We're very thankful for the great work that the NGOs and civil society organizations are doing today and we can't wait to see some of these projects that are going to come to life because of this. Understanding the roles of SDGs and the economic growth and development is as vital as understanding the roadmap to doing excellently. The current statistics of more than 133 million Nigerians who are multi-dimensionally poor is important that people are giving this this opportunity for hope and one of the ways to be hopeful is you know not to to know where your next may will come from. I would like to say that these SDGs in total have been very helpful in ensuring that we are we as an organization achieve our objectives. Applicants who must have successfully passed illegibility screenings are required to submit one project idea that addresses one of the 17 global SDGs. The project must also reflect a specific key performance index and an estimate of total people that will be impacted by the project. Love you cuckoo you cuckoo, plus TV news. Hello, hope you enjoyed the news. Please do subscribe to our YouTube channel and don't forget to hit the notification button so you get notified about fresh news updates.


All right, the good news is that vaccines are coming out fast. So, furiously, the FDA panel on the verge of officially, you know, approving Johnson & Johnson's one-shot dose said that will obviously expand the pool of available treatments that are out there. The problem is getting your hands on them. And then they have these megasites set up all over the country, including one in East Rutherford, New Jersey that could ostensibly handle that traffic. But it is still an uphill battle. Bob Garrett joins us right now. The Hackensack Meridian Health CEO. Bob, good to have you. These facilities are very large. They aim to be very efficient, but invariably crowds form. And they don't know the procedure or who gets what and when and how appointments are honored. How is that being handled? So, Neal, first of all, thanks for having me back on your show. It's always a pleasure to see you. You know, I think we have to kind of level set and put it in perspective. If you think about it just six months, nine months ago, who would have thought that 70 million Americans would have already had a vaccine? They were talking about developing a vaccine that would take years. Distribution would probably take another year after the vaccines were developed. So we have to put it in a little bit of perspective. I do really understand people's frustrations. We are really literally working around the clock to try to deliver vaccines. The megasites are ramping up still. We started a couple of weeks ago doing about 1500 vaccines a day there. Next week, we're going to be up to 4,000 a day. We are getting more and more supply in as the weeks go on. It's been a little bit slow, but I think it is improving by the day. And as you mentioned with the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, hopefully being approved over the next couple of days, we're actually expecting the first shipments to come as early as next week to places like New Jersey. You know, on the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, the fact that it's a one dose vaccine apparently proven to be quite effective, how is it sorted out? Who gets what vaccine? Yes, so what each state has a separate distribution plan in New Jersey, those sites that invested in the ultra cold freezers are delivering the Pfizer vaccine. Other sites that don't have that ultra cold storage have been delivering Moderna. Johnson & Johnson only needs refrigeration. So it's going to be a much easier distribution plan. So I can speak for Hackensack Meridian. And what we're planning to do is, if we do get the Pfizer Johnson & Johnson vaccine next week, we're going to be delivering that vaccine in places like our emergency department because it is a one dose vaccine. So it's easier to administer to those patients. They don't have to come back. We're going to try to even administer to those patients who are eligible, who are being discharged from the hospitals themselves. We're going to try to get them out to people's homes through our home care program and also to some of the underserved communities through some of our clinics and some of our primary care physician offices. So the J&J product will be much more portable, if you will, and much more deliverable because it doesn't have to be stored in those ultra cold temperatures. All right. But again, Hackensack Meridian, health CEO, again, to his point, there's no shortage of possible vaccines and treatments out there. The problem is that proverbial final mile. They're trying to address it in some of these large distribution centers. You see similar ones popping up all around the country with the hope being that all of those vaccines get in a lot more arms and a lot faster. All right. Stay with us on that front of the bead time.


Hi everyone, Joe for JaspeysCaseBreaks.com coming at you with a box of 21-22 Panini Mosaic Premier League Soccer, English Premier League Soccer. One box random team break number three. Few things happening here. First of all, we're going to give away three box spots to the people who bought spots straight up. So you've got a chance to win extra spots. Second dice roll will be the break itself. Third dice roll will be giving away those three teams in Mosaic World Cup. We're just coming up in the next video. So big thanks to this group right here for making it happen. So let's gather all your names and let's see who wins those extra spots. First dice roll, top three after eight, six into two, eight times. One, two, three, four, five, six, seven, and eighth and final time after eight. We definitely have the odds on his side, Louis T. After eight, a few extra spots going your way. We'll put those little rooftop symbols next to your name so you know those are your winning spots. Little buy one, get one scenario. There are the 20 clubs right there. Let's get everyone in. Let's roll it, randomize it, six and a five for names and clubs 11 times. One, two, three, four, five, six, seven, and 11 and final time after 11, we got Louis down to Louis, six and a five, 11 times for the teams, two, three, four, five, six, and 11 and final time after 11 we've got Man City down to Newcastle. All right, Louis got all of the teams except for Brighton and Wolverhampton. Daniel, you've got Brighton Ovalbian and Kevin with Wolves. Let's sort by team, let's just print and rip. So once again, at the end of the break, the third and final dice roll will re-randomize those names, top three. We'll get teams in that order right there. All right, now the whole hobby box. So let's see what we got in here. There's the final printout right here. You're on Sunday the 9th, there's the whole list and good luck. Rough day at the office for my team, Liverpool fell to Arsenal three to two. Some issues there in Liverpool, things not quite clicking, a little sloppy really. The penalty there in the 76th minute was a little soft, but what you can't do is let Gabriel Martinelli score a goal in the first minute. That's not a good thing to do. And you can't let Mikhail Saka score a goal in the 45th minute, in the injury time of the 45th minute. So the first half is basically over. So that's just, look at that, that's just a little lack of focus, not as sharp. So without those two goals right there, I mean it could have been a completely different match. Crystal Palace beat leads two-one, West Union over Fulham three-one, Arsenal three-two, Man United being Everton through two-one. And I think those are your big, what's the Monday night football game tomorrow? Forest and Villa, afternoon for us here in the United States. Harvey Elliott rookie card, Harvey Elliott looked pretty good for Liverpool in his few minutes that he was on. Seaman Cuss has been looking pretty good too, he's been kind of getting minutes over Trent Alexander-Arnold. His red parallel is not numbered, but they will ship Gabriel J. Seuss is now on Arsenal. It's a pretty good all-match. I think we're shipping all cards in this. Yeah, all card ship. That's for Palace, that's for Louis as well. Trying to save some of the rookie branded parallels. And there's Allen DeSantis at Max Mean, 24 out of 99 for Newcastle, that's for Louis. The blue parallel. Louis has Southampton as well, Diallo. Rookie Silver, should be an autograph in here somewhere. Here's Gabriel Martinelli, he looked pretty good, really good. Louis with Arsenal, rookie card. And here's a classic, England's John Terry, brave John Terry. That's Louis with Chelsea. It's John Terry up to these days. I feel like a lot of his peers are like Miquel Arteta and John Lampard are in the management, managing sort of thing. He's currently coaching a coaching consultant at Chelsea's Youth Academy in Corn to Wikipedia. So he's trying to get into the coaching thing too, it looks like. There's Irman Louza for Watford, that's for Louis. A couple inserts there to close things out. All right, there you go gang. Not too shabby at all. Now let's see who's going to win those teams. Let's see who's going to get into the next break. And we'll randomize your names, we'll match you up with those spots right there. New dice, new list. And top three after four, three and a one. Good luck, fingers crossed. One, two, three, and four. After four times, Daniel sneaks in there. And Louis got two of the three after four. So Louis, you get Argentina and Portugal. And Daniel, you'll get that big 15 country combo. In the next break, jaspyscasebrakes.com. Put a little rooftop next to there so you know you won that. Actually, this is a filler break, so let's put Mosaic three. Mosaic English Premier League three. There you go, that's the designation. And I'm Joe, I'll see you in the next video, jaspyscasebrakes.com.


Hi everyone, I am Akansh and we would be discussing about on-way gateway and in-depth guide to its benefits, use cases and features. I forgot the title, sorry. Okay, with me, Shivanshu was supposed to be here, but us visa issues. So he's not. Apart from that, welcome everyone. And I just wanted to know how many of you have heard about on-way gateway or used on-way gateway? A lot. Okay, so the other half of the room, what do you use? Anyone? Okay, not a problem. So let's start with this on-way gateway introduction. So with this, we have introduction to on-way gateway. The agenda is here with architecture overview. We have a demo by Shivanshu. I'll play a recording about eight to 10 minutes. And then we can have a discussion on its features and how extensible on-way gateway is. So what is on-way gateway? So on-way gateway is a gateway which manages all the, just a minute, it's slightly confusing. Yeah. So what is on-way gateway? On-way gateway is a gateway which is actually managing on-way proxies. So it is a native gateway for on-ways. It is an XDS control play which will dynamically manage all the fleet of on-ways wherever, however, how many ever you have in the cluster. It provides batteries included, I would say, experience for on-way proxy. Whenever you install on-way proxies, whenever you work with on-way proxies, always their on-way gateway is natively supported. And we can call it as a wrapper on on-way proxies. Batteries included is one of the most famous phrases for on-way gateway. It provides an extensible support to a multitude of applications, gateway use cases and everything. And why would we use on-way gateway over any other gateway? So it satisfies most of the common use cases for any of the gateway purposes. So I would say it's not a full-fledged service measure application, but yes, it will support all the other use cases, all common use cases like traffic routing and management. Apart from that, it is very performant, high efficiency, high performance. It's very extensible, we can have rules, we can have filters, we can attach other proxies as well. We have dynamic configurations for on-way. It's very secure. And we have support for all the protocols available, UDP, TLS, HTTP and what else do we have, GRPC. And it has a seamless integration with all the service measures and all the other orchestration platforms. So this is a basic introduction to on-way gateway. Now let's start with the architecture overview. So we have an on-way gateway which listens to the static configuration and dynamic configurations and it manages all the fleet of on-way proxies that are there in your cluster. So a traffic request is coming in to the gateway. It will redirect it to the proxy and the proxy will then manage all the traffic and send it to your user application, wherever it is. A high-level overview of this particular diagram. We have a provider at the bottom. The provider listens to all the static configuration and the dynamic configuration that I have told earlier. Then it goes to all the translators. The translator splits it up to the infra IR and the XDS IR. And this is done to provide like if you have a Kubernetes resource, it will have a Kubernetes listener. If you have a file resource probably in the future, it will have a file listener. And for this part, we have split it into two parts because we can have control over public-facing APIs and we can have control over all the other internal APIs. Also, we all know that whenever we make a gateway resource, on-way proxy is a new on-way proxy instance is already up and running. So we can have numerous on-way proxies with different configurations running and which is being managed by a single on-way gateway. So N number of gateway resource will manage by single on-way gateway. So a little bit of extensions. So we can have a lot of extensions to on-way gateway natively supported. Here we have an example of an OAuth2 filter extension which is connected to our on-way gateway right now. Coming to a slight demo, we will continue with the features after that demo. The demo is talking about HTTP routing and it's like traffic management and everything.  Thanks for coming today and let's get started with the demo. So there are multiple exciting features in our gateway and let's see a couple of them in action. Yeah, can we increase the volume? Can we increase the volume? Thank you, Kansh and hi everyone. This is Shivanshu. Thanks for coming today and let's get started with the demo. So there are multiple exciting features in our gateway and let's see a couple of them in action. Let's start with the HTTP routing. So we need to create a gateway class which uses an on-way proxy gateway controller and then we need to create a gateway which references the gateway class and exposes a listener. So here we are exposing an HTTP listener on port 80 and then we can configure multiple HTTP routes which references to different backend services and attach to the given gateway. Here we are attaching it to the example gateway. So to see this particular example in action, I have created, so I've created a multiple four clusters and everything is set up in two, three and four clusters and let's set up everything from scratch in the first cluster. So first of all, we need to install the NY gateway itself for that I just need to run this hell install command which is pretty straightforward and while it's creating, installing NY gateway, let me show you the routes that I'm going to configure. So this is the gateway class, this is the gateway with the listener and then I'm configuring three HTTP routes with different services. So this route is using postnameexample.com and is exposing example service on port 8080. Similarly, this route is using hostnamefood.example.com with path prefix slash login and exposing foo service on port 8080. And then the service is bar service and if the header is canary, the request goes to bar canary service and if the header, if there's no header, the request goes to bar service itself. So let's see if everything is installed. So NY gateways installed and let's check if the CRDs are installed. The required CRDs like the routes gateway class and in my proxy patch policies, everything is installed. So let's go back to deploy our sample applications and let's also deploy the, okay, I need to be in the right folder, deploy the applications and deploy the route itself. Let's see if the routes are created. All the three routes are created. Now, okay, we are using Minicube cluster which means there's no external IP for the load-based service. So I need to start the Minicube tunnel so that I can get a local IP address for the external IP for my load-based services. Now that the IP is assigned, I can start sending the traffic. So let me first send the traffic to widthwithhostexample.com and let's see, okay, I need to give the password, cool. And the request is served by the example backend which is expected because my rules says if the hostname is example.com, the request is served by example service. If I send the request with header with hostname food.example.com and with path prefix slash login, the request should come from foo service which is correct, but if I remove the path prefix from here, the request should not be served because there is no rule defined. For foo service, there is no path prefix. So this is again working and if I send the request with the host header with hostbarexample.com, without any extra header, the request is coming from bar backend and if I send the request with the canary header, the request should come from the canary department and this is expected because I've added the header match rule here. So in summary, it's just as easy as creating the STP routes and configure them properly so that you reference the right backend services and define the right tools. Similarly, we can have request and response header injected to take a look at this example. Let me switch to another cluster. The second cluster has everything pre-configured so that we can save some time. We have the NR gateway and all the routes configured. So if I go back to the examples, all right. So here I'm just creating a filter which adds foo header. Now, if I send the request, but before sending the request, we again need to tunnel the traffic for Minikube so that it has the public external IP. Okay, now let Megan send the request but in the second cluster where everything is configured with STP routing and header injection is enabled. So I see the foo header is there. In my request, I am sending something but the foo is coming from the injection. So it's again as easy as applying a filter in your STP routes. The third example that we are taking today is Jot authentication. To configure Jot authentication, we need to create security policies which attach to the specific STP route and then we can have the Jot URI configured. For that, let me go back to terminal and switch to my third cluster. And again, tunnel the traffic to get the public IP for my gateway. Let's check if we have the public IP public as an external IP. Yeah. Okay, so for the Jot authentication, the routes that I'm configuring just the idea is to create a security policy and that security policy is attaching to a given STP route. And then there we can define the exact Jot URI Jot token. So I have two routes. One is foo and one is bar. And both are sending traffic to the backend service with slash foo and slash bar path prefix. But the security policies configure only for the foo STP route, which means if I send the traffic with slash foo, I should provide token, otherwise the request would be rejected. And if I'm sending the traffic to slash bar, and it's okay, the token is not required. So let's first try to see if the token is there. Okay, the token is exported. If I send the request to foo without the token, it should get unauthorized access. Yeah, and 401 means it's unauthorized. But if I send the traffic to bar, since there is no security policy, it should get to 100. Okay. Now, if I again send the traffic, but with the token, the BLA token is in the header, it should be 200 okay. So in summary, we can configure to authentication. It's just we need to define a security policy which attests to given STP route. In theory, like any route, it could be a GRPC route also. But GRPC does not use short. So for STP, it makes sense. Now, the last thing for today is rate limiting. So if we use, so for configuring rate limiting, all we need to do is configure this backend traffic policy. The backend traffic policy is again attaching a given route and we need to configure the rate limiting with the given request limits and headers. So here I'm configuring the rate limit with limit three requests per hour. And the header is accessor ID. So it means if this particular header is present, then only the limiting would work. Now let's go back to terminal and switch to third, sorry, fourth cluster. And let's start the tunneling. So here also everything is pre-setup. I have also this Redis deployment to cache the rate limiting to enable the global rate limiting in Envoy and cache the values in Redis. So the gateway class is configured and all we need to do is first step is having the Redis instance ready and then configuring the Envoy gateway to use that Redis instance. And then we need to define the backend traffic policy. So in this given backend traffic policy, as I said earlier, I'm just depending if the header is present, I'm limiting the request to three per hour. So let's try to send the traffic first without the header and it's all 200 okay. And if we send the traffic with header, I'm expecting only three requests to get accepted because the backend traffic policies says only three requests per hour. So if I send four requests in just two seconds, only three should get accepted, let's see. Yeah, so the fourth one is denied and because it says X limit, rate limit and it's rate limited too. So configuring rate limiting is very easy. Just you need to create a backend traffic policy as it's to the STP route and configure your rate limiting in the rate limiting part. So I think that's it for the demo. I would hand over to Akash to take from him. Thank you. Yeah, so we saw STP routing. Header manipulation, jot authentication and rate limiting. Now we come back to cross origin resource sharing. So for cross origin resource sharing, we are attaching a security client to our on-line gateway. Here we do some filtering over headers and methods. If we have X header one or X header two in this demo, then the traffic will be routed to the service, otherwise it will be not. So this is about cross origin resource sharing. Going to GRPC routing. So GRPC routing is recently supported and it is very similar to HTTP routing. We can see here the service is being handled by the port 9000 and it is not a lot different from HTTP routing. Coming to HTTP redirects, here we are using some rules and filters. On the basis of our status code in this demo, if the status code is 301, the whole traffic will be redirected to port 443 of the hostname example.com of the service. We can also have a multi-cluster service routing. So in multi-cluster service routing, we are exposing the multi-cluster service API of Kubernetes where we can do an export of service A from cluster A and import it into cluster B or service B. So here if we can see that we have made a rule to HTTP route where we are using the back-end service of cluster A on port 3000 with the routing to our cluster B. Next we do HTTP route request mirroring. A request mirroring is nothing, a request will come in. It can go to two back-end services. So let's just say we have one request which is coming in and it will be served to port 8080 probably and then we have made a new rule which will serve it to 3000 as well. So a new service. Next we have HTTP route traffic splitting. So we can do a traffic splitting on the basis of some rules or filters. In this part we have done, we have made a rule that every traffic will be filtered on the basis of like 50% of traffic will go to port 3000 of service of back-end one and 50% of traffic will go to port 3000 of back-end two. So we can do traffic splitting as well. This is the most exciting part for me. So proxy observability. In 0.6.0 release of Envoy Gateway we have proxy on observability as well. We can have Envoy access logs and we can look into metrics traces on Grafana Loki. So we can have a lot of observability on proxy, our Envoy proxies and it was not available before. So it's very exciting for me right now. So that's the end of the presentation. We have a couple of minutes I think. Do we have any questions? Yeah, so if I'm not giving weights to anything so the splitting will be done on 5050. If I maintain weights like 9010 or something like that then it will do a split on that basis. I have no idea. I am very sorry we can get back to you on that. I need to check on the docs. Yeah, so he told the answer. I did not have an answer for round problem. Anyone else? Okay. Could you quickly repeat the question? Sorry to say. Sorry? Could you repeat the question? Okay, sure. So can you tell me your name? Yeah, so Dave you were asked why are we using on-world gateway over any other like Istio or some other gateway, right? Yeah, so my answer would be that one, I prefer, I use on-world gateway over Istio because I am not a very big organization where I have to have a whole service mesh configured. I can have just a gateway and the traffic routing or splitting and that will get my work done. It is very lightweight, it is very extensible and it is actually supporting all the major protocols that I'm using, so UDP, TLS and GRPC if I am using and HTTP. Apart from that, it is like batteries included. It is a wrap, we can say it is a wrapper over on-world proxies. We can like manage all our on-world proxies with one single on-world gateway. So I would say because of lightweight, if I have to go with this whole service mesh, I will go with Istio. Yeah, that way, for Redis. So Redis was being used for rate limiting, right? Okay, so you want to know the configuration? Like how we are maintaining that configuration? So majorly, I also use Lua only but I think we have an A2 support to Redis now. But if we have, like if you want to discuss, we can discuss this afterwards as well. Yeah, yeah, so I would say I would like to reiterate my part about the wrapper part of on-world gateway. So on-world gateway is very lightweight and we can consider it as a wrapper over on-world proxies. So it's a very natural connection to on-world gateway, all the on-world proxies. So on-contour or as Dave mentioned Istio, I will have to have another set of configurations for on-world proxies or sidecars. So that is why I would use on-world gateway but if the use case is more nuanced or more extender, then I would use something else. Yeah, yeah, exactly. But on-world gateway is natively supported and that is why I would use on-world gateway, yeah. I can't speak to any individual project but I know a lot of the folks who've built these kind of things are working together and there has been talk of a lot of these projects rebasing essentially onto on-world gateway as like a sort of commodity layer. Eventually, obviously, you know, I can't speak for any company or any other projects roadmap but that's definitely been discussed, right? The similarities. Yes, please. As much as I know, yes. Yeah, there's a resource type where you can essentially punch through the abstraction and give, avoid configuration, direct. Yeah, yeah, maybe you stay tuned. Okay, anything else? Cool, thank you very much. Thank you.