Good evening and welcome to the Center for Strategic International Studies. I'm Andrew Schwartz, and I'm very happy to see all of you tonight I think some of our friends are still coming in. We do a little maintenance housekeeping around here now It's just sort of the state of the times. If there is an emergency and I don't expect there to be one We will have people directing you to the nearest exits. There are exits behind To the right of mr. Sanger here, so we'll make sure you get to where you need to go But general we don't expect anything bad Can we welcome general skokoff general Brent skokoff this year? Have to welcome one of my bosses, and I also like to welcome judge William Webster is here as well It's been a great day at CSIS today. We hosted Representative Mike McCall chairman of the house Homeland Security Committee to discuss cyber threats then we had Interior secretary Sally Jewel talking about The department's energy priorities and now we've invited Bob Schieffer and Carol Lee to preside over Jake Tapper and David Sanger's bar mitzvah I'd like to thank Bob Schieffer and the Schieffer College of Communication at TCU For their great partnership and bringing us these dialogues It's been about seven years that we've been partnered with the horned frogs, and we are proud of that relationship None of this would be possible without the generosity and support of the Stabros Niarchos Foundation We're so appreciative appreciative of them and all they do for CSIS Now without further ado, please join me with your applause and welcoming Bob Schieffer. I think everybody up here would be much more Comfortable if we were sitting out there in Brent skullcroft and judge Webster. We're sitting up here But be that as it may we'll we'll press on And we hope they'll have good questions. Everybody knows David Sanger down there Washington correspondent for the New York Times reported from New York from Tokyo On globalization on foreign policy It's been a member of times reporting teams that have won the Pulitzer Before covering the White House he specialized in Confluence of economic and foreign policy and wrote extensively about that Carol lead my left is the White House correspondent for the For the Wall Street Journal She was started out here in Washington at least at the White House for political, but she's one of the few reporters It's been there for the entire Obama Administration so we're glad to have here and then of course my friend Jake Tapper here. You all know Jeff Jake he's the anchor of the lead and it says a long and distinguished career here and I Think I want to start With Jake because I think the first thing we ought to talk about is what's happening in Israel and what the latest is and I know you just got off the air. So yeah, just bring us up to speed Jake on what happened? It's really fascinating. First of all, it's an honor to be here and it's such a pleasure Especially sitting next to my colleagues most unably mr. Schieffer The the exit polls according to their three Israeli TV channels that do exit polling Channel two is the one that CNN went with this year because they have they have a slightly better track record than the others they had Netanyahu and Likud with 28 seats in the Parliament and And and Herzog with 27 the other two networks have it even 27 27 As I'm sure you know the Israeli Knesset the Parliament has 120 seats So you need a coalition of 61 no party in Israel's history has ever won 61 votes. So now What comes next is first of all the actual poll results need to come out and then the president of Israel if there is no clear defined winner In terms of who had the plurality has to pick so already Who gets to pick which party can now has 28 days to form a government? the jockeying has already begun and Netanyahu has already basically declared victory even though the actual results haven't come in and Herzog and his Coalition with Cipi Livni Are pushing back saying this is more Likud Misleading of the public as to what's going on because this is very much a perception game in terms of the Israeli president Some not so surprising, but also just very interesting Results the third place it appears is the coalition of Arab parties About with about 13 seats and then the two secular center parties I have about 11 seats and 10 seats again. This is all just exit polls. So who knows So I really don't have official results, and I don't really know exactly what's going to happen yet And nor does anybody other than mr. Netanyahu apparently But it is it is fascinating and if it comes I think what would be most interesting would be if it turns out to be 2727 Well, then and I'd like to bring David into this too if if it winds up like this Who has the best chance of putting together a coalition? Well, that depends in large part on How some of these smaller parties end up as Jake points out the fact that this Arab coalition Slate Put together what 13 seats from the last that we looked at in part This was because of a legal change that was designed to try to keep them largely out Of the the NASA and so they came there were so many fragmented Arab parties, and so now they've come together in in one panel I Would have to say that if you had to bet right now You would have to bet that the machine that at this point that Prime Minister has put together Would probably cobble this together from the right and some of the some of the others But you know the president of Israel has no love lost at this point for Prime Minister Netanyahu, and I think if he can figure out a way that he could Begin to put into designate somebody else to try to put a government together But first I could do this with this combination with if the living I think he would be inclined to do that that would be hard to do if it's 28 27 it would be I think something he might be able to pull off if it was a tie Carol what do you think what are obviously the people at the White House most have been very disappointed? Yes Oh, they've no position about When the Prime Minister came out one was a yesterday of the day before and said he no longer favors a two-state solution Which obviously we all know what the US policy is on that What what was their thinking over there? Well privately their thinking is that they don't really believe he was ever really for a two-state solution and That was just his most explicit articulation of the policy. They believe he has held for a long time You know their View of this election. They've been very cautious about making sure they're not looking like they're weighing in on that but the White House Press Secretary and others in the administration made clear that what Netanyahu said was at odds with President Obama's policy and Secretary Kerry said that he would like to make another go at the peace process and that he hoped the while he wasn't weighing in on the election He hoped that the results would be in favor of peace a peace process and coming to some sort of resolution but the general thinking is that this election either way it goes is going to set the tone for relations between this White House and Israel for the next two years and They feel that if Netanyahu were not to be Prime Minister that that would be much more Beneficial to them because he while the disagreements would still be there. They would not be as Blustery as they have been under this Prime Minister and whose relationship with President Obama has significantly deteriorated what do you all think would be What happens if let's say that Netanyahu is able to put together a coalition and now you have The Israeli government saying we no longer favor a two-state solution What happens after that? Well to some degree Bob you have to think that every time that Prime Minister Netanyahu came here There was always this question of could they drag him into uttering the words that he was in favor of the two-state solution and he told many other Israeli politicians and some American officials at various times Before he came into office this time That he was he would not sign up for it. Then he did reluctantly Undergrade the national pressure. I think what's interesting about this election is that as it came down to the wire In the last three weeks you saw him move to Hardened positions on the two issues that were his signature issues. It was coming here to denounce the Iran agreement before it was negotiated But basically to lay out his his case Against it as he said it would pave the way to a bomb in his view rather than then block it and then to announce that he was not favor of the two-state solution and to Defend much more vigorously than he had even before his imposition of settlements in places that he knew would be A blocking of a negotiated solution It's just been fascinating when I spent I spent the first four years of Obama As the White House correspondent for ABC News and it was just fascinating to watch the relationship deteriorate From the very beginning I think when Vice-president I'm sure I'm gonna mess up the chronology here But there was a Biden trip to Israel and he landed and immediately new settlements were announced there was Netanyahu not being permitted to come through the front door one time an honor usually reserved for the Dalai Lama and In deference to our friends in China, of course the and then just just the Netanyahu what was interpreted by President Obama's Netanyahu lecturing Obama in the Oval Office and I think it's fair To say that that the respect that Netanyahu and Obama have for each other knows bounds But beyond beyond that It has affected the relationship. Yes the defense cooperation the intelligence cooperation that continues There is this undergirding of the two countries being allied But but the idea that it's irrelevant Which is something that you hear sometimes from Obama's Supporters that it doesn't really matter that these two don't get along of course it matters that these two don't get along and And and it's I think it had very bad consequences especially for Israel, but you know beyond the idea of The impact on us in Israeli relations How are you going to resolve this problem if it's not a two-state solution only it's to me It's like when we talk about immigration in this country and people say well, you know They're against any kind of Work permits or anything for all these you've got eight million people in this country. What are you going to do with them? You don't have enough buses to haul them out of here You can't build enough jails to put them in it. You have to be realistic have to figure out something In a realistic way to deal with it What do you do with these with the Palestinians if there is no two-state solution? well, I think one of the things that believes in the White House's view is that if Netanyahu were to prevail and Continue to be prime minister there's third questions about whether they would even try to restart the peace process Is it's not I mean there were questions whether they were going to do that anyways You know in the last two years and so I think that a lot of the policy that particular issue is really in flux If if Netanyahu stays and even if he doesn't where I think his The election is really impactful particularly if he wins for Obama is on the Iran issue because if he comes out of this As the victory as if it's a victory for him, then that's going to influence him with Republicans in Congress. He's may feel emboldened to go back and get views them further to try to scuttle a deal I mean that all of that the thinking in the and the administration was that if he went down in this election that then that whole Speech and all of those that his efforts to sway lawmakers in Congress would kind of become less influential and If that doesn't happen, then that may not be the case and I think that's where the real policy implications Where do you where would you see the next thing? What would happen next after that if if if We no longer or if Israel no longer favors of two-state solution You'd have a huge demographic issue for The Israelis because the Arab population is obviously growing a lot faster than the Jewish population isn't it at some point they would end up having to choose between being a Jewish state and being a democracy and So that's one of the reasons that many in Israel favor Two-state solution is a way to sort of preserve the concept under which Israel was first created I'm not sure a two-state. I mean a Jewish state is possible unless you have to say I'm not sure Well, it can't remember a professor of mine in college This is quite some time ago telling me that Israel cannot be the same size. It is now Jewish and a democracy in perpetuity like At least one of those things has to change and Right now it seems like the Israeli leadership the current Israeli leadership, and that's in Yahoo government Thinks that the status quo is the only viable option and unless there is a hue and cry for full voting rights or few full human rights in some cases for the millions of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank I Don't see evidence that that's not true I'm not saying that that's what I would pick if I were in charge of the world and got to snap my fingers and change things but They seem to think that this is this is it This is what this is the solution is they live in the West Bank and these people live in Gaza And we have as little to do with them as possible and They don't get to vote. Okay, let's talk. Let's talk a little bit about the Negotiations with Iran you followed that very closely David for a long long time Where do you think we are the word out of out of there today was that they think they're getting closer Iranians seem to say seem to be more positive and optimistic than the Americans. That's exactly right by the Iranians We're giving a very positive spin And you have to wonder was that because they were really getting closer Or because if it does fall apart that they wanted to establish a narrative that they were they were ready and the United States Was not so a couple of interesting features of this first of all politically Secretary Kerry has put himself in an interesting position Because he has gotten to the point now of being the day-to-day negotiator here rather than coming in as the closer which would be the usual kind of expectation and That's a tough spot because this is not the kind of negotiation where the president himself can come in and be the closer so Secretary Kerry is going to be out there all this week We expect that if there is no agreement by Friday and I could look foolish for this on Friday But I think it would take a miracle to have it all together by then he'll come back for a few days. He's got President Ghani coming from Afghanistan And then he'll probably go back and try to hit this deadline of March 31st a couple of big issues to go look for First of all, there's the continuing argument about the number of centrifuges that will be allowed to be spinning what you heard a lot about when Prime Minister Netanyahu came but in some ways that's less important than the questions of What they would do to configure those in a way that they could not turn out much Bomb-grade uranium and there are all kinds of ways Technological ways to go about doing that the advantage is you have the face-saving element for the Iranians that they're allowed to keep thousands of centrifuges But you have the technological limits on it. The difficulty for Secretary Kerry is that's a very difficult thing to explain It's very easy to go on TV and say you have left the Iranians with thousands of centrifuges And it's very hard for him to sort of come back and say but no if you understood the physics of this This is harder to make into bomb-grade fuel inspections are a very difficult issue right now because If you were really going to cut off the covert pathway You would need to have a far more intrusive inspection regime than we've ever seen in any country Including the ability to go on the military bases which the Iranians and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps has opposed and Research and development is very important because the Iranians are working away on some very advanced centrifuges They'd like to be in the position that when this agreement expires whether it's 10 years or 12 years or 15 years from now And Bob has us back up here to ask answer the question. How did this all work out right? that at that moment they want to be ready to go with a very large capacity and The US wants to make sure that work on these centrifuges stops. So those are the big areas of disagreement Politically, I think almost anything that Secretary Kerry comes back with is going to be under immediate attack by the Republicans and some Democrats and so you have to think of this not as one negotiation, but three. There's the easy one between Kerry and Zarif there's the hard one between President Obama and the Congress and there's an equally hard one between President Rouhani and the clerics and the generals Well, I was gonna say that's part of why you saw the White House today playing down the prospects of a deal that they were Close and one of the reasons that they gave was because the big X factor is what? You know the ayatollah is at the White House thinks he's the ultimate decider And they don't know what he's going to do or say or whether this will fly with the Iranians leadership Iran's leadership, so That's and then there's the general Does the White House is very reluctant to raise expectations on something like this and any time you're getting closer To a deal like this. It's just all of the political forces start to really get cooked up again And you know they're concerned about that and they're really trying to manage that as But with this opposition that we saw you know beginning with this extraordinary letter That 47 of the Republicans signed which came up in the talks this week and which actually came up in the talks How is the White House going to be able to assure the American people that this is safe? And this is this is in their interest for us to sign on to a deal like this Well, that's gonna be a big heavy lift for the president. He said he'll do that one and if there is a deal but first he's gonna have to Get Congress to hold off on some things and I think in the administration's view that letter Gave them a bit of a reprieve because what was building as a very large bipartisan? Coalition in Congress around senator Corker's bill for instance, which would give The Senate an up or down vote on whether or not to prove any final deal That coalition is sort of fracturing and it started to fracture after Netanyahu's speech to Congress because some Democrats were Had felt those things were getting a little too partisan and then they doubled down on that the following week with this letter and You know not every Republican side of most of them did no Democrats signed it and that Helped the White House a little bit with this job that they have to do which is to get Congress not to Well, the president will veto any of those bills He's already said that but what Corker's been working towards is this veto proof majority and the view at least in the White House Right now is that that letter took some of the momentum out of that. Do you all is it your sense that? In the end that Congress will vote in some way on this I think Yeah, I'll have to vote on what to do about the sanctions But it's just a whether they they will approve or disapprove this. Yeah, I can't underscore enough Absolutely, I think so, but I can't have going up what what Carol just said about how much the cotton letter Hurt Corker's efforts to get a bipartisan majority veto proof To just to stand and say Congress needs to be part of this There there are so many Democrats who have serious concerns about this deal Not just the deal as it's being negotiated now, but the framework that was established a year or so ago The idea that the the deal cooks in it's already cooked in that Iran As opposed to in UN resolutions that Iran Gets to enrich uranium gets to manufacture plutonium and that again as opposed to What what you the UN would have required or the UN Security Council that Iran that there was this deadline Whether it's 20 years or 15 years as opposed to what the UN said which was It would depend upon Iran's behavior and then more could happen in terms of sanctions being lifted or whatever And the idea that the administration was was pushing forward a deal That was in the view of many Democrats weaker than what the UN had put forward Made a lot of them very very nervous I think what Carol and Jake just laid out is absolutely right But I think the president's argument is going to end up focusing on the question compared to what so what happens if we just walk away from this You know that was it Bob Gates who always used to say that the three the three words never asked enough in Washington are and then what and So let's do the and then what's here, which is which is Helps explain why the president finds himself in the position. He's in if there's no deal then The temporary agreement that was in place to allow the negotiation would expire on June 30th at that point The US would be free to ramp up sanctions as much as it wanted The Iranians would be free to ramp up their production of uranium and produce plutonium for the first time at the Reactor at Iraq as much as they want and then you're off to the races and this is why the White House argument was You know the Netanyahu Prime Minister Netanyahu when he came didn't offer an alternative proposal The wedge this puts the White House in though is that almost anything they negotiate will look better than letting the Iranians go off and produce whatever they're going to produce after June 30th and So it somewhat relieves them of the responsibility of is this the best deal you could get and that's the hardest thing For the president I think to explain can any of you Do any of you have the inside story of how this letter came about? I mean was this just one rookie senator who came up with this idea? Was this something that? senior members of his party put him up to I Find the whole thing. I mean, I know I'm showing my age, but when I came to Washington People just didn't do It just wasn't the way things worked and and and suddenly this pops up and 46 of his colleagues signed the letter along with it Does anybody have any idea how this thing came about? I did but that was an on-camera interview so The on-camera explanation is that he came up with this letter and passed it around but I share your Skepticism that this was the brainchild of somebody who'd been in office for 60 days as opposed to some larger movement And somebody said let's go with the decorated Iraq and Afghanistan war veteran and see if he'll be able to fill being charged Also having interviewed him several times He was remarkably when I interviewed him on message and concise Which usually does not necessarily suggest authorship Right, but but this is just conjecture. This is just conjecture. Well, you know, I You know, he was on face the nation Sunday, and I found him remarkably composed He he made a very good presentation and and he did not just give talking points. He actually Seemed to try to answer the questions the only question He really didn't give a definitive answer to was when I asked him to be planned to contact any of our other adversaries North Korea Which seemed like a logical follow-up I think he believes it I mean, I don't think any of the 47 who who signed it disagree with the letter Well, there are some regret, you know There were some regret about whether it should have been addressed to Iran's leaders as opposed to why not an open letter in the Wall Street Journal? The remarkable thing here is it's the jump the gun element of it And I think that Secretary Kerry has the best argument that he can muster right now is wait until you actually have an agreement Before you start criticizing the problem the administration is going to run into is that Come March 31st One of three things is going to happen either. There'll be no agreement which case we're off of the scenario I described before there will be an agreement But the State Department will say we're not ready to provide you with the text of it In which case they'll be doing private briefings in Congress Which I hope would leak to the four of us within 10 15 20 seconds If not, we should all be fired and the third option is that they actually do release the text and That's going to then change the debate because then both Democrats and Republicans will have something on which to base their critique And you know, there are some legitimate critiques out here But that's going to be a very hard question for the Secretary to decide whether to publish this that early And one other thing on the letter The one of the big concerns the White House had with it is that if Negotiations fall apart if Iran walks away from the table Their concern is that it gives them a reason to blame the United States for that and that their their view is that the blame game is very important because if Iran if Iran is not to blame for talks blowing up Then it's they won't be able to hold together the kind of international coalition that they've had to tighten the screws to put more pressure and And so that's one of the things that they were they were concerned about in terms of how that would impact I find it I just I find it impossible David knows much more about this So I defer to him, but I find it impossible to believe that Iran would walk away from this deal Yeah, the Iranians have a lot to gain from doing a deal here because they really won't I mean Rahani was elected to get rid of these sanctions and Their oil revenues were down by more than half before the price of oil dropped So they're under a awful lot of pressure To get the deal together and I suspect that they will try to do it but they do want to make sure Carol points out that if the deal doesn't happen the blames on the US and I think that's a significant well with your great follow-up question and then what Should Iran expect tougher sanctions if this deal falls apart? I mean that seems like that's going to be almost They would get tougher US sanctions But let's face it. This is like us trying to put additional sanctions on North Korea as we did after the Cyber tax is not a whole lot left for the US to sanction on Iran We've if there's a good sanction on Iran believe me somebody's thought of it in the past 36 years, right? So what's that leave it leaves the other part of the program that the US doesn't talk about when you ask us officials They say they came to the table because of the sanctions. Well Half right they came to the table because of the sanctions and because of the sabotage Okay, and the sabotage program against Iran is a long one you've read about some of it in the New York Times and elsewhere and it's been everything from giving them bad parts to giving them Bads bad computer code which destroyed a thousand centrifuges and Natanz so what that would leave the US and Israel is the option of trying to step up the sabotage Because doing something directly from the air Or on the ground would trigger another conflict and that's obviously exactly what the president's trying to avoid What happens now on on getting? Authorization for a military strike the next thing will this Congress give that to the president my sense of it Is that that's looking kind of remote it is looking kind of remote. I mean part of the reason why the White House, you know, they'll say that this agreement is not a treaty and doesn't require a questionable They don't want to send anything to Congress because the Congress can barely keep the lights on and beyond doing anything beyond that You know that gets past that it's just it's a real question mark And so any kind of very serious issue that the president holds close which you know You can I really can't think of and Jake you probably would agree with this There isn't a foreign policy issue that this president cares more about than getting something and a deal with it Ron, but if the the relationship between the Congress and The White House to me seems about as bad as it could get right now Yeah, it's worse than it's ever been back to the days when and John Boehner wasn't Even taking Obama's phone president Obama's phone calls. It's it's It's stunning. It's interesting. I mean the the administration looks at the the Tom Cotton letter And in through the perspective of the authorization for use of military force against ISIS and and And says so they want to micromanage Every single thing we do to try to achieve peace in a treaty But when it comes to war have at it, whatever you want to do in whatever country How do you square that? You talk to Republicans in the Senate and they'll say we want to the president to keep us safe and That thing that means waging war however, he needs to do it and not signing off on this on this treaty, but They don't even understand how the other one thinks the Republicans in the Congress and and this White House well and also Republicans in various camps. I mean I Think it'd be very difficult for John Boehner to get his Republican caucus united On a number of things and I think the same thing holds true In the Senate, I think that's true and to your question could you imagine an authorization for the use of force? in Iran, I can't But think about that. They're having a hard time for reasons that in both parties getting a continued authorization for use of military force that would help against ISIS here and In the Syria case when the president thought about and then pulled back from that missile attack It was clear that either Republicans or Democrats in Congress were going to approve that as well so You know the Congress is caught between wanting or the Republicans caught between wanting to portray the president is weak Not standing up for the United States enough and on the other hand not wanting to go the route that they saw President Bush take They don't want to vote either Yeah, and when you think about I mean they're both right and how they criticize the other the It is difficult discerning a coherent foreign policy objective And especially when it comes to use of force in the administration right now President Obama Clearly feels very ambivalent and torn about it I have no idea and maybe somebody here can help me understand what we're doing with our troops in Afghanistan I thought that they were supposed to have been gone by now But now we're being told that that's being reconsidered and then dates are being reconsidered in Afghanistan That's not a public discussion that the that the administration is having with Congress or the American people It's kind of just you know, you learn about it by reading the New York Times and and Conversely as you point out with the Syria escapade it wasn't as if the president Taking it to Congress was the clear option to do it looked like he was gonna lose that so even when the president's critics I think With reason criticize him for walking away from the red line. He was about to have happened to him what happened To David Cameron in the UK they were about to vote it down. Let's talk a little bit about Russia number one Do any of you have any information on where I? Have to tell you I heard one of the one of the late-night comics saying that they thought he had a move job But I think that was a joke to be candid he needs one the Let's talk about aid to Ukraine do you all see the administration and the Congress coming together on this issue Is there gonna be aid to Ukraine or not and what's going on there? Well on the lethal aid question the president's made it pretty clear that he doesn't see an advantage Doing this by the way talking about Russia and how to handle it when you're sitting 20 feet from Brent Scowcroft. It's just it's not a good idea, okay? Discount whatever I say or Brent cover your ears so president clearly does not want to go to the lethal aid and One of the reasons is that he believes we don't have what in the academic world They call escalation dominance anything that we provide it's a lot easier for the Russians to go and match I think the fear that I hear the most in the intelligence world these days is that President Putin's strategy may well be one of Make some advances Declare another ceasefire Proclaim that the Minsk Accord which calls the ceasefire is a brilliant solution pull back for a few months until the headline shift elsewhere Gain another hundred kilometers Declare another ceasefire and make this work until he's gone down and rejoin You know his land bridge with Crimea and that may well be a strategy and if it is I'm not sure it's one That the West in any way can actually stop I mean they're not a member of NATO the US is not and NATO are not going to come to great military aid I haven't heard a plan for the lethal aid to the Ukrainians that Sounds like it's convincing that it would change the nature of the fight Yeah, I think well there's there are folks in the administration who favor Militia right flying lethal aid particularly if this current agreement is significantly violated But the doing so raises a whole bunch of questions like you know how much how quickly would it get there and most importantly? how would Vladimir Putin respond and Those questions have been enough to give President Obama pause to this point But even if they were to get to a point where he was receiving, you know Have grew a very strong majority of advice from his advisors to do this. There's still a big chance He's a cautious president He's not inclined to do this kind of thing and there's still a chance that he would ultimately say no And you know by the way, you know, he was here with the angle of Merkel not that long ago And she opposes it and he it's one of his favorite leaders in the world that he gets along with her very well They have a close relationship and he values her opinion and listens to her pretty closely So that that is also influencing how he's thinking we will go. Let's go to the audience now For some questions, but let me just ask You to how is the war as we're gonna be thinking of your question? How is this whole situation with ISIS going? It's going as well as can be expected without ground troops, and I don't mean necessarily us ground troops But you have the Peshmerga you have what Passes for the Iraqi military the Syrian pre-army still not really any sort of force that that has plays any sort of role and You know the US had its first casualty In Iraq and the fight against ISIS it came from a bullet fired from The row of the Iraqi side of a camp and accidentally hitting an American soldier on guard duty So as of now, you know the air campaign Continues and the American people are scared of ISIS, but not necessarily engaged in the day-to-day and US troops aren't coming home in bags I think that they can they've the administration feels like they can they can ride this out until there is some sort of There is some sort of Cogent force on the ground. I'll tell you who needs that lethal aid though is the is the Kurdish fighters That's who could really stand the lethal aid that we're not providing to the Ukrainians. All right Well, let's go to the audience now a general scope Rockwood. Do you like to say something? make an observation Factual errors to be corrected Well, if you do feel free to right here in the green shirt. Yeah, thank you Good evening. Thank you very much for your discussion. My name is Lieutenant Colonel John Oakley I'm at the National War College here in Washington, D.C. and and I'd like you to address a particular issue Not a current hotspot, but a potential future hotspot and that's dealing with the Arctic We have a lot of nations which are calling themselves arctic nations or close arctic nations as China is so I'd like your thoughts on The future as you see it From your from your viewpoint on the Arctic. Thank you Well, I'm gonna have to say I'm kind of a fair weather soldier on this one This is something I feel absolutely nothing about but who can I make that clean? Yeah, all right Who would like to talk about I don't know a whole lot about it, but I would certainly say that You are seeing countries make claims and You know the joke that's going around is that if you get enough global warming, you know rolling You're gonna be able to actually have navies that will roll right right into the territory that you're you're worried about But I think it's sort of a long-range problem at this point I mean when you look at both the the Russian and the Chinese strategies right now The Chinese are much more focused on the South China Sea and the Senkakus We've seen the Russians trying to do greater patrols that will sort of intimidate the Europeans So I think you've got a it's a 10 or 20 year problem out, but I'm not sure that it's an imminent problem Understanding is that he actually would like to visit the Arctic before You never know what you're gonna get for an answer right behind you there go ahead Peter Harpre former diplomat current analyst. I the one I lose sleep over is This is the Southeast Asian Islands. Isn't it time for some adult supervision to formally divide up All those islands and prevent a major even a global war that could result from the failure to do so The big question is who provides that adult supervision? So, you know, the Chinese have made it pretty clear They want us to stay out The Chinese strategy for Establishing a presence there both the air defense zone that they Created and then the the naval zones they're creating Is one that I think the Asian pivot is designed to counter But it doesn't solve the territorial issue on which the US has said it'll only be resolved by the individual parties and You know, I thought today's news in the Chinese sort of gave you another part of this strategy you saw last week Britain and today Germany and France and Italy all sign on to this Asian infrastructure Bank which is an alternative to the World Bank or the Chinese portrayed as an addition to the World Bank Well, where's this infrastructure going their concept for it is throughout Southeast Asia so that they begin to establish Much more of an economic as well as a military presence It's actually fairly similar to what the Japanese strategy was in infrastructure when the Japanese economy could still sustain it when I was living back in Tokyo and I think that is going to be the longer term Problem here. I think the Chinese will continue to press their claims, but won't actually Take over much of this territory. I could well be wrong on it But that they're going to try to surround it both militarily and economically Okay, over here somewhere any ladies There's all men here There's one right there. Okay. I have actually two questions that are somewhat related. One is that I haven't heard you discuss our sort of path to endless war which we seem to be on and how that affects the economy and Also, I see almost no coverage of the fact that we have more refugees that at any time since World War two and Aside from the humanitarian disaster. This is creating. It's also breeding ground for terrorists Well the endless war I mean it's a it's a it's a good point. I just find me the major presidential candidate who's going to Stop it. I suppose one could argue that Rand Paul As a is is or Bernie Sanders if they ever were to get those nominations But I find it impossible To perceive Bernie Sanders getting the nomination and I think it ran Paul actually poses a strong Challenge as he potentially could I think a lot of people in the Republican foreign policy establishment will stand up and do everything They can to try to Not let him get out of South Carolina or Nevada during the primaries I think that where the parties are politically whether it's Hillary Clinton or Jeb Bush are very supportive of the current defense budget very supportive of Involvement abroad in situations such as combating ISIS or the next field Which is going to be in Africa in terms of fighting terrorism there whether or not it poses a serious threat to the domestic to the United States homeland I Would just say realistically speaking. I don't think whoever the next president is and not this he's going to turn just Turn away and just suddenly withdraw. I just don't think that that's going to happen And there are no American quote ground troops on quote, but I think America's going to be involved a long long time and particularly the Islamic State has really tested folks like Rand Paul's Theories and you know, that's going to be an issue for him I think if that had he was really getting a lot of momentum in that view until the Islam until a year ago And and now that's a little bit dampened Your point about the refugee crisis is though is also very well taken that those are breeding grounds and whether it's in the Syrian refugee camps or what's going on in Gaza right now or any number of other horrific places you're right and More should be done. I mean the key to solving the refugee problem is get people to stop fighting. I mean, that's That's that's if we can do that then there won't be any more refugees. Yes, right here. Go ahead I Like to ask David, sorry David what about the reported failing health of the? Supreme leader in Iran some people have said that the Council of Experts could in fact pick The next successor to the Ayatollah and that he could in fact be harder to get an agreement with Well, you know, we don't know a whole lot about this system and This Council of Experts now has sort of a hard-liner who's been put in charge We don't have a full sense yet of What we know the Supreme Leader has allowed this negotiating team to go out and negotiate this deal He's done that sometimes in the past and they brought back deals a much smaller one in 2009 that he then rejected so he leaves himself open that option and That has to do with this vague constellation of IRGC generals and the coups force and other mullahs Who are influencing him to some degree, but he recognizes that The majority of the population at this point very much wants to get rid of the sanctions and doesn't really care about the details of the nuclear infrastructure as much whether the next Supreme leader Would have the same view is you know sort of hard to know and While they might take a harder line at the same time there They were very spooked by 2009 and the restiveness on the streets and that's their long-term threat the question back over here Peter Pennington JGB just a good bloke Earlier this week in this very room Senator John Warner or retired secretary for the Navy John Warner posed a question To the three heads of the sea services Navy Marines and Coast Guard He pointed out that throughout the Cold War There were always semi official unofficial links between the heads of the services here and their counterparts in Soviet Russia He asked the three heads did such links exist today There was a long silence a very long silence and eventually Admiral Greenert said He could talk to his counterpart in China any time There were no such links into modern Russia Would the panel like to put an interpretation on that? Well, I think that's probably right Would be my interpretation of that and I think I Think that just underlines the dangerous world that we live in right now, and I think I think Senator Warner is absolutely right. There used to be some pretty strong links and that was always a good not back channel, but it was it was a channel and It worries me now that maybe those channels are not as strong as they used to be in a few months A few years ago. You wouldn't have been able to even say that about the Chinese you remember that after the visits of the Dalai Lama and Arm sales to Taiwan we had about a two year down period where there was sort of very little military-to-military relationship which came back some in the last months of Secretary Gates time at defense and then through Leon Panetta's time But with Russia the chance for miscalculation is so much greater now That they are out doing these active patrols that we discussed before in some cases at least for the aircraft they've they've turned off some of their air identification as well and You know, that's that's how stupid things happen All right one last question right here Steve Winters local researcher since I Don't think we mentioned China particularly yet We had to talk here a few days ago right here and was mentioned that the China experts are Suddenly getting back to this idea that China may be on the brink There was a very striking article by David Shambau in the Washington the Wall Street Journal probably all familiar with In parallel to this, you know ISIS seems to be metastasizing all over the globe Is how how is the situation in DC with this paralysis and the government in effect? I mean or at least splits how is this a tenable situation faced with these Massive possible catastrophes that people are predicting for the near term Well, I mean, I would just say I would quote Bob Gates I would quote Leon Panetta the greatest danger to US security right now is our inability To make decisions and the whole decision-making process and the paralysis from one end in the disconnect between Capitol Hill And and and the White House. I think that is our foremost Security threat. I would anyone disagree with that No, I mean cyber security is obviously the one thing that they also talk about when they talk about big threats to this country Yeah, all right. Well, thank you all very much on behalf of PCU and CSI


What's going on everyone Sam here late in sports cards. We are doing in 2022 tops Chrome baseball jumbo HTA four box break number 17 Pick your team style gonna read off the list of teams and names next to me We've got Adam C with the Cubs white Sox angels and Orioles. Thank you there Adam Alexandra's S with the rays Barry S with the Braves athletics David D's got the pirates Don L Dodgers Nationals Dustin H Cardinals Ed B. Metz Yankees. Thank you so much Ed Evan C with the Royals Hank B at Red Sox Jeremy S reds. Thank you, Jeremy John F Are John F mariners Joshua K Blue Jays Kyle C with the Phillies Kyle P with the Padres. Thank you, Kyle Matthew K's got the Marlins Michael M Astros Mike P has got the Donbeck's Guardians Rockies Giants really appreciate that mark Russell G's got the Brewers Tom B with the Tigers and then Willis T has got the Rangers and the twins So give me one second guys and we'll get started. Thank you so much. Let's do it We also got four silver packs that we're breaking with this We have another break of this coming right up after tops Chrome number 18 jumbo four box break pick your team style Gonna have to pull some fire out of this man That's what I'm hoping tops chrome when it hits man, it hits hard chiseled Don't we got a greenie out of your Molina going to the Cardinals that's 64 out of 99 on the green way Tim Anderson and Carlos correct 77 at teen the spots to go breaking next Top scroll PYC the other eight of the other four boxes That I've got right here next to me Seager Clayton Kershaw there you go Dodgers on the prism got a refractor auto Ronnie Dawson going to the Astros That's 302 out of 499 There you go at Houston grads each town refractor John Lester on the back there What's up Wow, look at this guy God does not play by the rules. That's all I know Not the only way Read that murder's rookie Nolan are not we got Luke Voigt going to the Yankees on the blue raywaves 97 out of 150 there you go Ed congrats on the Luke Voigt. That's sick man Luke Voigt and Tim Anderson Padre legend now Luke Voigt You know what I started doing that. I think it's gonna make a huge difference. I'm officially doing the hot teen honey Probably for from my voice it's made your first purchase on the site zesty. Let's go. Let's go Welcome in man zesty Italian that is Jared Kalnick and Matt Olson on the refractor It's just that's what it's solid musicians and stuff. Yeah. Oh, yeah It is it has helped my voice is still hurting today Yeah, when I saw you guys on Sunday, it was it was like on fire I guess so Gavin sheets on the refractor rookie there you go white socks congrats on that one nice refractor rookie It welcome to the addiction. Yeah honestly Yeah, I'll see you neighbors man That would be awesome You've got pink Tim Anderson going to the white socks to 70 out of 399 south side Sharon Durand rookie and John means refractor Very just a very low on the buccaneers right now. Yeah, that was pretty bad Shane Boz on the prism rookie GP realm you too.  Yeah starting tanking PJ Walker. He's like You know not a very good like not a start third straighter Yeah, he's a good backup and he's slung it all over the place. Oh, Neil Cruz rookie Brian Burns look great on defense their past rusher. I know he's one of the guys that they are not like willing to get rid of Got Trevor Lorna that is twins. We've got Ivan Castillo. There you go Congrats on that one Kyle picking up an auto for yourself go Kyle and Byron buckson refractor Yeah, Packers what the heck happened to the Packers what is going on with the Packers? Yeah, I Don't know man. You know what it is. It's like It's there. They're they have no threats on offense outside There's a wander rookie outside of their running game like they have no good wide receivers Brandon Marsh rookie Hey, it sounds good. Dang appreciate you, buddy Thanks sports car baby. Yeah, not having Adams that I think that's obviously gonna be the biggest issue there But I think the defense isn't as good as people thought it was gonna be There's a lot of guys on that defense had not taken the next step They lost it area Smith in the offseason, you know, he was their heart of their past rust essentially So now you're putting all of your eggs in the basket with Rashaun Gary Patrick Wisdom that's going to the Cubs Congrats cubbies And Connor Wong refractor rookie Someone took the hometown Tigers from you Yeah, Tigers are a good team in this man. You're looking for Torx, which is big Joe Ryan rookie woodruff. Yeah, we've got Trey Mancini And then we've got Spencer Strider. There you go Atlanta. Congrats Braves, man I am a Spencer Strider magnet out of top scrim on believable Kyle talker Yeah, yeah, I mean he's still he's still great, you know But I think it's just I think it's tough when they have such a lack of offensive weapons like there's just there's no playmakers there Louise Heal, Jaren Durand There's legitimately no playmakers at the receiving position That's Matt Olson 121 out of 350. We've got Tyler Gilbert going to the Diamondbacks and refractor Peter Lonzo. There you go again, Ed I thought they were gonna be yeah, so much better. Yeah, I thought Matt Ryan does Ryan's Yeah, he does he's not a good he's just not he's just old he's washed like he's not serviceable anymore Yeah, it's just not not a good move getting him and they're really just going through like old washed up quarterbacks Or like guys who aren't that good I know Jaren Durand, but I mean they kind of screwed Andrew lookal by not protecting You know But no, I get that like that's tough Yeah, same I did too. I mean they were pretty much like no brainer like everybody was like they're the lock to win the AFC So Chris Bryant, that's Glenn Otto going to the Rangers. There you go Right no for sure Jim like he's trying Christian. He's he's borderline his stats are borderline Doesn't have the accolades for it. I don't believe But he is yeah, it's time for him to to give it up Hang him up Maddie got a gold wave coming up here. No, he watches the stream Brandon Marsh see what the gold wave is good luck here everyone Connor Wong. We've got Cedric Mullins go into the Orioles 17 out of 50 Congrats on that get better Elon. Yeah, thanks for we're always here whether you're sick healthy Absolutely, get better buddy Nelson Cruz. Yeah, get better man for sure for sure Keep me updated on the next one See what we're rocking with Bets that pop It's an old sin got auto tray amber J. That's going to the Reds. There you go, since he Grads on that reds. We've got Goldy on the refractor for the cards 16 to go on the next one guys 16 at so go and We get breaking on it GD Martinez going to the Red Sox and now to a refractor Yeah, I'm trying to think I who else surprised me The bangles look very good. I will I will give credit where credit is due You know, I think we're over blowing it a little bit more because it's they played the Falcons But they look like they're kind of jealous. Yeah, they look max crannick on the green there you go pirates 92 out of 99 rookie Brandon Marsh rookie and Zach Wheeler Chase took a little stinger Might have buddy might have been one of those come back in kind of things I don't think it's gonna be I like I don't think it's gonna be a Affecting injury I guess is the way to put that There's Luba and Joey bought over fracter Uh, how's the mic Donald says the mic keeps coming in and out are you guys? Um Pull it down. Yeah, pull it closer to me a little bit. How's that? That's not a little bit better guys That'll happen. So it might just be your iPad Donald that will happen on occasion It's fine. I'm on worms and okay Pete Alonzo on the prism there you go Ed and Luis Garcia refractor Tim Anderson we got Brian de la Cruz on the Marlins rookie out of there you go Miami Miami's a good zoom in this one, too They got a boatload of hits and refractor Patrick wisdom It's a Cal Raleigh rookie big dumper Got a gold Fernando Tates, Jr. 41 out of 50.  That's awesome. There it is man. Congrats Take some gold tautis action. There's a tapia refractor rookie auto Chas McCormick 9 out of 499 starting center fielder for those astros Very nice hit there Houston. I like bone on the second year refractor. Who else impressed slash did not impress me. Oh The Patriots did not impress me last night. I think they could be in trouble man after that Yeah Tyler Gilbert, there's an Ian Hap and Jigula, Mehue. There are they're one of our division rivals Andrew.  He called it. He called it Rosarena set beer Nolan Aronato and Ryan McMahon All right, I'll do it for box two A bunch of orders coming in appreciate you guys See what we got on our next one here refresh 15 to go now on our next break guys 15 to go On number 18 Between it. Thanks, sir. We'll get on to box number three Lester I think he Unless they're on the Cardinals this year was that his this year's last season or do you retire this year? trying to think I Feel like he might have retired at the end of last year But there's like guys like Ryan Zimmerman's in this guys like Who else is there Zimmerman? Buster Posey has cards in this too. So there's a couple of like guys who retired last year who are still in the product There's a large new bar Brandon March rookie. I think we're due for a super. I hope so man green auto Kyle Muller not auto Green rookie 63 out of 99. There you go Braves Braves doing well out of that one in now trout and refractor Trevor story Team results, there we go. Oh, I hope so man. I think we are due for a super though Definitely do for a super definitely definitely definitely Curtis Terry Rodolfo Castro Joey Gallo, we've got angels is gonna be Jansen junk on the rookie rookie auto I should say going to the angels Grats on that one L.A. and Blake snow gold coming up. Yeah, we got a true gold coming up. It looks like true gold Goldie junk is his last name. Yeah, Jansen junk great name for a picture Christian Yelich. We've got Spencer Strider Boom congrats Braves There you go Atlanta Barry s Dude, I told you this is a third gold Strider auto. I thought really yeah What's up, how many to go to 50? Yeah, still though that will be odds dude That's huge 15 out of 50. There you go.  I have to say Killing it with that brave spot. That is Kevin Gaussman and Whoopie bets on the refractor for the Dodgers that is awesome dude Pulled nothing but Spencer Strider Brown Spencer Strider and Christian Watson those are my guys Oh, yeah, Gavin sheets Trevor Rogers on the second year for the Marlins a Raleigh Flavor tropical. Yeah, not a fan. No, I'm Carlson. There's an Austin Riley 19 out of 199 getting some nice color coming your way to Barry got Freddie Freeman. That is one Soto on the refractor I don't believe that's the variation That is not the variation and Jackson co-ar That's the only way to spend a sick day at home Absolutely Absolutely is Andre Jackson Rookie with all Bruhan for the race Prism Zach Lothar and Lord's Gurriel It'll it'll have a different serial number on the bottom and you're like and with three different numbers and then they're always refractors as well Get some purple auto-action coming up here now. That's gonna be Corbin burns purple We've got Teosca Hernandez very nice blue jays nine out of 250 Congrats blue jays And Joe Adele refractor 14 to go guys breaking next we're chipping away. We are chipping away a Lot of good teams still left there value-wise teams are all on sale as well You know some of the higher and mid-end teams definitely are Got Vidal Bruhan Ryan Mountcastle Yeah, a lot of good color in this box is sure Absolutely Absolutely, absolutely always love pulling colored autos. It's always one thing For sure for sure So I think we got a blue coming up now to Peter Lonzo blue Alex Wells for the Orioles at the eight out of 150 Congrats Baltimore There you go For the ooze cold Calhoun on the refractor Rangers No, you got four solar backs to Pull out of there, man. There's no Neil Cruz ripping. That's Pirates That's how fun. So we're like everything stuff together in this box This packet at least I should say Rizzo Magtrow we got Josh Lowe Alex Kierlov going to the twins. That's 176 out of 250 Nice Kierlov, Casey Meyes, Prism and Zac Pop refractor rookie Nice way to end that and that pack but nice last three cards All right, it's a Tian That's Josiah Gray prism rookie. We've got auto Brendan Woodruff on the auto going to the brew crew There you go brewers nice one there and Jacob the grom refractor All right, that'll do it for box three. We're on the box for good luck here everyone Again guys 14 to go on the next one. A lot of good teams still left definitely some good value in there Yeah, definitely recommend checking it out Definitely would recommend checking that out Poshcrum's a lot of fun. We get 20 autos a break sometimes more depending on when the silver what happens in the silver packs And those can get a little crazy Those can get a little bit wild for sure. I mean we've seen it firsthand with our own eyes here How crazy they can get? Wonder Franco rookie there you go raise and refractor Max Muncie Dodgers That's Tyler McGill on the negative. There you go. Ed nice one there Love pulling these these negatives, especially when they're rookies. That's awesome. Jacob the grom. We've got purple speckle Louise heel 152 out of 299 there's some closer mojo for you there Ed. Congrats, buddy One of the Yankees top prospects right now and refractor rookie Tony since he on for the Reds. There you go, Jeremy Jordan Alvarez going to the Astros. We got refractor Joe Musgrove 65 out of 499 nice that for you there Kyle Take that for sure. He didn't generate you not too bad one of the Padres Probably their second guy. There's an O'Neill cruise pirates. That is John Carlos Stanton going to the inks and refractor Hoy Park Just shut us out in game 3. I know honestly At least you guys took the series though.  Yeah, true true that that's a little bit of a Gut punch when you get one hit shot at least he didn't strike out 30 times in two games like the Yankees Wander rookie Stupid tiktok Matt beer leg on the prison rookie. We've got all over our taiga. That's going out to the angels Nice one there refractor Harrison Bader One of the few Yankees that was able to hit he was Stop Zosie So is a Siri Showhead and Ian Hap base back there. Oh What's up Nick? Nick the quick slick Nick This heel Wander rookie. We've got pink speckle Emmanuel Rivera 103 out of 350 Royals. We've got large new bar on the prison rookie and DJ Yeah, probably as of right now. I would say Steve Probably that gold strider Very nice card though for sure Big fan 17 times in one game you're striking out I say a can of falafel why oh gotcha November I thought that starts November I was saying in November. Oh Start now. I thought you said we can't shave them off until November. I was like wait a second Gabriel or I is that's going to the Guardians There you go Cleveland and Willie Castro Yeah, that's that's not good right now literally what a billion Red Sox also Yeah, Matt Manning on the prism and refractor Brandon belt last pack of the the boxes guys and we got our silver pack still to do Have a good one Nick Jonathan India blue air and judge 101 out of 150 two off a Jersey number. There you go. Ed nice one there, man We've got prism Luba Followed by a Andre Jackson on the a rookie auto for the Dodgers and refractor rookie Jake Burger All right, that'll do it for those. Let's do some silver packs Then guys with every single one of these top stone breaks we do we always include the silver packs Josiah Gray refractor Brandon belt Come on, baby.  Let's go buddy. Congrats On the base image variation Let's go Congrats, man Dude, that's awesome. I love these things. Let's go Kyle. Congrats, man. Congrats Kyle. Whoo And Blake Snell and we've got Tyler Gilbert They look who's Kershaw and Minoa that'll do it for the break guys do a quick recap here Yeah, Andre Jackson Dodgers Gabriel Ryan's Guardians all the Ortega angels Joe Musgrove Padres. Yeah Oh, yeah, another Abrams short friend Brendan Woodruff dodge our brewers Jansen chunk angels Chas McCormick Astros Brian De La Cruz Marlins Trey Amber J. Rhett's flannado rangers Spencer Strider Braves Patrick Wisdom Cubs Ivan Castillo Padres Ronnie Dawson Astros. We had our colored stuff Louis seal purple to 250 Yankees Teosca Hernandez blue jays purple blue Alex Wells for the Orioles blue Luke Voight Yankees. That's gold Cedric Mullins auto for the Orioles gold Tatis then we had Short print image variation CJ Abrams going out to Kyle with the Padres Congrats Kyle and Then we had a gold Spencer Strider auto for the Braves. That is 15 out of 50 my third one of these I've pulled That'll do it for the break guys. Thanks again for hopping in and the fill next up. We got another one of these Let's get it sold out Congrats again guys


Thank you so much Aditya and thank you all of you for the attention that you're giving all the odd those who are speaking here at the forum So we have this interesting conversation Samrati who is the who is her interesting journey. She is comes from a media background and is now Doing some disruptive work. I mean we have heard about fans But we have never celebrated fans in return they celebrate their celebrities, right? You know communities they follow but no one gives anything back to them. That's what Samrati is doing She has Co-founded the company fan drum, right? So let me ask you straight away From media to fan drum. I mean what what made you think of fans of all the things? First of all, thank you so much. I would really like to thank my co-founder For this opportunity So to begin with As we heard of talking about content content content, right? Every content producer is only talking about making content But the content is only successful if it's only viral as long as fans watch it So the whole purpose of fandom is to validate and celebrate those fans who make the content viral who make content a part of the pop culture person Right. So tell me I mean how is it different from where fans are right now?  They follow.  What is there for fans if you can tell all the people here? Good question. The thing is that Facebook was never meant for fans neither was Instagram neither was Twitter neither was What's that neither was but the fans found themselves a community, right? There was a need So they automatically found form communities here. Here. We are building an exclusive platform just to celebrate fans You know as just Gaurav was mentioning that they're producing contents around the world Everybody's watching content. There is no language or geographical barrier But who's watching out for these fans to connect them together, you know There is a world outside the real world You know Facebook is connecting you in the real world with friends and family and so on and so forth LinkedIn in the professional world Pandrum has content at its fulcrum where we celebrate fans across geographies across languages together Three words that you've often used as regio recognize reward and Rejoice. Yeah, what exactly is that? So Once the film is produced, you know, the fans are the people who actually create content around content around content for them, right? They create memes they create gifs. They write articles. They write reviews. They talk about it They fight for their stars. They fight for their celebrities The idea is to recognize these people who are these people who are creating and generating value for these content producers So the idea is to recognize the reward them for being these creators in its truest sense You know give them tangible and non tangible rewards make their dreams Make I mean fulfilling their dreams and obviously we rejoice with as a content industry together because it's part of the ecosystem Right, it has to be a 360 degree ecosystem. We validate a content producer We validate everybody else the only person not validated in this whole ecosystem are the fans You know since this is a new work conversation in India, you know focusing on fans give us a sense of how big is the fan economy and If you compare it with the rest of the world, where is India? What are the opportunities here? Even for brands that are looking to meet people, you know present themselves. What all is there? What is the scope for people who get associated with it? So right now when we are building a platform the whole idea is to recognize and identify the span You know we are building a new economy the scope and all will be all secondary from it, right? Every brand that comes on television wants to be associated with the customer so-called or the audience, right? But 20% of the people give you 80% of viewership and that 80% of viewership is your market market share So those 20% become very very essential part of your ecosystem for brands or for any economy Today if I ask any big broadcaster who are your top thousand fans I'm sure they will not be able to name it and even for that matter if you have to tell them the persona that What what is your fan really like? Do you even know the customers that you're making your content for? We are the only industry who don't know our customers who we are making content for that's why less than 5% of the content It's successful currently and that's why we want the whole 360 degree approach to the content ecosystem So when we talk of fans, you know it there it seems that we always talk of two genres You know one is Bollywood and one is Cricket. Is it so? Are we narrowly looking at the entire narrative of fans according to you? We are looking at an absolute narrative. I can be a Bollywood. It can be a star fan. It can be a character fan It can be an IPL fan tomorrow. I can be a fan of any brand. I'm a big fan of Ferrari I'm a big fan of Porsche fans are available everywhere, right? Those fans connect with content So it's an inter merging community and we get to know The persona of the fans better There is no nobody in the world who's actually calculating the fan value index You know people who are watching content their social values their social attributes and their persona to make the content and map them Fandrum will be the first of its kind who will actually map this kind of data with the brands with the column with the content and everything else Fan value index Sorry something very new of course, I mean I've heard about it But for our people present here, can you can you elaborate exactly? What do you mean by it? Fandrum is a fully gamified platform, right? The more the more creators are engaging with their communities the more they're putting out for their for their Celebrities for their characters for their products the more they are gaining points, right? The more they gain points. That's how the fan Calculer fan value index works the more they calculate The more they spend the more the fan value index goes up and that's how you become a mayor a moderator a super fan And it's a whole journey that they go through in the ecosystem You know one interesting aspect that you bring about is something called fan safety a new term What is fan safety? To answer your concept. We are not trying to Steal their data we will be completely GDPR compliant and the persona that we are trying to use will be all according to the GDPR Compliance and the laws that exist in the country, okay, so for broadcasters and OTT players you are also seeing that language, you know is an important like it's not just mainstream language That where you find fans, you know regional also has a lot of untapped potential So, how do you integrate the regional fan following into the mainstream fan following? Is there a way that phantom is planning to address that you know this fan economy actually? Already exist across across regional language, and it's much bigger than anything else when we talk about the South industry It is much more organized. It's just very very scattered and very fragmented You know if I have to go become a fan of a join a community I don't know where to go until unless I am in that ecosystem and I belong to the South industry where I know the admins That's where I can join so the whole idea is if I am like We are watching content in multiple languages. That means our things are the fandoms are increasing So if I have to become join that particular community, I don't know where to go That's fandom You know you connect fans around the world at a common place where people can chat interact with each other continuously they can become friends and Gain points and get rewarded for being a fan Some of you arrived at a point where people are now you know coming to know what phantom is all about I'm sure it was not an easy journey Give me a sense of leaving High-paying job for phantom and what all went to it went into it a little bit of backstory Was it also easy because right now we're just hearing the front side of it that this is all this and that But was there any what is the back story like a struggle or anything of that sort which you would like to share There is passion when there's passion there are there are roadblocks, you know so you have to cross every roadblock and When people like mr.  It makes a lot of sense So When you compare Fandrum with what exists around the world Where do you see Fandrum in the next say two years and what is the plan? How do you action it? Well, how are you planning to take it from from where it is to where you want it? So right now we have launched Fandrum in five languages in the English In last two months we have about one like users and we have done zero marketing to begin with I think this will be the probably the first marketing effort that we we wanted to first introduce Fandrum to the Ecosystem that we belong to and then go out and out in the market and celebrate them The idea is to grow global beyond any geographical our language barriers Cater to every kind of person every kind of fan that exists around content and other spaces And that's where we want to be all right We have two minutes one is We are all fans in some way or the other right if we have to join Fandrum What do how do we benefit individually and what do you have to say about to people who are here who are fans of some? show some celebrity Would you like to say something? What do they get exactly so you get rewarded for being a fan you already are fans of something you yourself said So if you are a fan of something you have fundamental needs of engaging see when we watch content We are in a relationship right if I spend 10 season watching a particular show I get involved with the I get involved with the character I get involved with the plot I those are my house those are my highs those are my lows You know and when you are in a relationship you want to talk about it to the friends the good parts and the bad parts So here on front room we give you those friends who are like your like-minded community I may be married, but me and my husband absolutely share zero content choices right he goes if I go south he goes north So if I have to talk about the content that I have to talk about I go on the online communities and talk about my content I get validation. I don't get blocked. I can like any kind of content and be celebrated for watching that content great What is the size of the market by the way for the fan economy give some numbers some journalists sitting here They they have sent me this question the size of fan economy. Everybody who watches content is the size of fan economy So I don't know the specific number but all I can say 700 million only in India are people who watch television Right, and I'm not even talking about sports or films or in that matter So 700 million people watch television on a daily basis 42% of those people watch GC on a daily basis So imagine if you can cater to those people and fandom become the real second screen and a real friend to them That's that's what the size of market would be I have time for one question anyone Alright, okay. Okay. There's a question. Okay. Yes How do we join it's available on an Android and I always put Awesome, so I'll be the first to join. I've already started very very happy Dr. Bhattra has a You know, I know it but I'm doing it for more for the audience. What is the advantage to the fans? What is the advantage to the creators and what is the advantage to the platform as in media? Can you give those? you know very specific Advantages to all the stakeholders Sir right now out and out. It's a platform for fans They don't have any specific platforms where they can go and engage in first of all a platform Which goes out and say yes, we are here to celebrate you. We wanted to be a very democratic platform, right? Here everybody who becomes a fan gets an experiential reward Imagine I can send a fan to watch its favorite show make a fan watch walk down the red carpet So we are democratizing the whole value proposition for a fan people who have connects in the industry or people who have money Just don't get access to all these right people who actually stand outside their favorite Celebrities houses watch films in and out. So here is a platform for fan. The biggest thing is The biggest thing for finance that the fan gets a validation on the platform for the broadcasters and the content producers They get to know the audience better. They get to know who there's 20% of finance They start building loyalty to those fans, you know media and entertainment is probably the only industry Which does not have a loyalty program So here through phantom we want to build in the loyalty program for those fans and the for the broadcasters Loyalty brings in more revenue to broadcasters What was your third point sir? You know to the creators because you're you're in the creator economy Sir right now as I mentioned right everybody's career for a film content producer is making but the virality and the Sustainability of that content is purely and purely and out and are done by fans These fans are creating content and creating everything around the content on various platforms without any validation or without any revenue for that Here they get to earn those points. They get to earn the revenue We share our revenues with them whatever we earn and here the creators become those real creators It's no more about that five percent or one top one percent deciding the entire content ecosystem, right? We want fans to become the participants in the content production that is happening So yes, they get they become active participants rather than just being followers Somebody I should add that, you know You have taken fans beyond just likes and shares and some real value for them and being a fan can be celebrated, right? I mean it would be it would be something that can be monetized It will be celebrated the other way round as well They used to celebrate for free like and share but it's going to be the other way round and give them more value Thanks for doing this and bringing in this, you know a new disruptive platform. Thank you so much for joining Thank you so much. Thank you. No, that's it. Thank you so much


What do I think about the controversial topic of MLMs? Probably a lot of you know what that is, but those who don't, it's multi-level marketing, otherwise known as network marketing. And there's probably new names popping up every year about this. There are less charitable names like pyramid marketing or even simply pyramid schemes. So what do I think about this? Someone asked me, well, George, I'm building my, in this case, this person is building a coaching business or they're going to become a coach. They already have some clients and they're going to get more clients as a coach. And yet they also have been looking at a product for their own family, for their own use that they like and the product is part of a multi-level marketing system, multi-level marketing company. And so they're like, well, gosh, not only can we use the product, we might become distributors of the product. Why not earn some extra money, right? What's so bad about earning some extra money? And you just have to, you know, tell it to three people and they love the product and they'll tell it to three other people. How simple, how simple it is, right?  So why, what's my opinion? And you can already tell my tone, I apologize for those who are actually dedicated into MLM. First, I have to say, I have been involved with multi-level marketing since the nineties. So I know what I'm talking about. I'm one of the old school MLM folks. My family started doing multi-level marketing Amway. Remember Amway and Herbalife? And I got into, you know, noni juice, prepaid legal, even sold solar panels and wind credits, you know, green energy credits using multi-level marketing. I've done so many, so many multi-level marketing stuff, you know, you wouldn't believe. And not only that, I started my own multi-level marketing company back in 20, I believe it was 2013. I don't know if anybody here was part of that. And, you know, it was, I hired MLM lawyers and MLM consultants to help me develop this thing. And I had, you know, it was a one-year experiment, but I got like almost 200 members in my, technically therefore part of my downline because I was the one who started, I was in the top of the pyramid. And of course the top of the pyramid always wins. And so I, anyway, so I have lots of experience from both the member side, just using the products from early days, just Amway, you know, laundry detergent and vitamins and all that stuff to being a distributor and being a leader, a recruiter of other distributors and then starting my own company. So I think I know more than most people about this. However, I have to say I have not been involved in MLM for at least, for almost 10 years now. So I'm sure there's news to, I mean, of course now with AI and a lot of the social media stuff, MLM has, you know, taken the new tools, but the same old system of the idea is, what, come on, it's such a simple model. It excited me all my life, right in the beginning. Just imagine three people, you get three people excited about something, right? And then they get three people but they're excited about something. And then each of those three only needs to get three people.   You just need three people. Everybody just needs three people.  Now why hasn't that worked for the vast majority of people who get into MLM network marketing? It sounds so easy. Why is it, nobody tells you this and I'm gonna tell it to you. And if you are dedicated in MLM and you say, George, I do not wanna hear any negativity, don't watch this video. I have plenty of other videos for you to watch. I hope you'll watch everything else but don't watch this one, okay? But for those who are open-minded and even those who are in MLM and like, all right, hip hip me with it, I'm strong enough and I can be an, MLM apologetics, I have something else to say, that's fine, that's great. So here's why it doesn't work for the vast majority of people who do it, two reasons. One is that you think it's so easy to recruit three people to then sell the three people, you have no idea. I have lost more friends than three, than 30. I have lost so many friends in my life because I tried to get them into my MLM thing, multiple companies over the years and new friends, great, new recruits. And for some reason, it's really hard to get people to say, sure, not only do I like the product, I'm gonna help you sell it because people don't realize that it's not just very innocently, three people who just tell three people, no, no, no. We're actually talking about three people who will become leaders of an entire organization of people, because if you do three times, three times, three times, three, right? By the third or fourth or fifth level, you have an organization of people, it's not just an innocent, oh, I have three friends who are doing this with no, no. You now are partly responsible, not always, but partly responsible for hundreds of people and eventually thousands of people are looking up to you as one of the upline leaders to give a talk or to whatever, to model good behavior. And most people, when they see the upline leaders, they're like, no, I can't do that. So it's like, you end up having to recruit really three super salespeople who are also leaders or potential leaders, and that's like remarkably hard to find. It's hard to find someone like me who is like willing to go for it and it's really, really hard. Anyway, but not only that, that's hard enough, but once you start recruiting people and I've recruited dozens of people, hundreds of people in my life, I came across this dastardly fact that nobody tells you, which is not as easy as it sounds to get three people, three people, it's even easier for it to collapse the other way. What do I mean by that? Because you have to excite three people who have to then be so good at selling that they excite three people and then they have to be so good at selling that they think, but then on the other side, it's the same thing. If one person gets discouraged somewhere down the line, one person gets discouraged, that becomes a virus as well. That's why I told you, don't watch this video.  No, and they get discouraged and then the collapse actually happens faster than the recruitment in the beginning because it's just like anything else, it's easier to destroy something than it is to build it. You can destroy something almost overnight and it takes 10 years to build it, okay? Sounds like I have some personal experience from this, right? So that's what nobody tells you. It makes it sound so easy and it's like it turns out to be harder than building a coaching business and making it successful. That's the irony of it. It's actually harder to build and sustain a multi-level marketing organization than it is to do what I do. I've been in the middle of all my life. Why am I not still there?  They don't tell you that when you recruit people into the system, okay? Because that's how you want to make money. You got to recruit people into the system. The people, why do they quit? Why would they ever quit such a wonderful system? You know why they quit? Because every person in the MLM system is now a competitor to you. Let me explain, right? Like you recruit this person, right?  The irony is that those three people not only your downline, they're also your competitors now because when they find somebody, right? They could either join them or they could join you. So it's like, it's weird, it's a weird dynamic and the other thing is not only is everybody up and down and cross your competitors, it's the weirdest thing. You end up having the most competitors than any system that I know of.  Whereas if you're just a representative of the same vitamins or the same noni drink or the same prepaid legal plan, well, so is everybody else. Sure, your personality is unique. Yeah, sure. Your training might be unique, whatever, but it's sensual, there's some other people in the system who are better trainers than you, better personality than you. They are better at love bombing than you, okay?  I was selling Amway vitamins, well, so what? Herbalife comes along, Usana comes along and every there's like a new vitamin, a multi-level marketing vitamin company every two months or whatever. It's like, oh my God, there's all these competitors now taking my down line away, taking my people away. Because of course, when the new company starts, they hype it up and say, listen, do you want to be part of the top of the pyramid or do you want to join five years later? Of course, every new company is the most exciting thing. Everyone wants to join at the top of the pyramid. So it's like, sorry, I Amway's too old school. I'm gonna go join this new company with a new formula, with a new system.  And then that's why the whole thing, their friends get recruited away, part of the, anyway. So like I said, I know a lot of this stuff and I'm telling the things that people don't say. I'm telling, and then so let me go back to the original question. The person says, George, I'm a life coach and I want to possibly use this product. And let me say one more thing about the product, okay? The reason why you're so sold on the product because there's someone selling it to you. What people don't tell you is that, well, that's one of the benefits of multi-level marketing is that there's an individual person, usually a friend or a family member or a colleague you met, who is like telling you about the best things about this product. You know who's not selling you the product? Amazon is not selling you all the alternative products. You have to go and look for it. You have to read the reviews, no, no. That's passive, the Amazon is selling all these alternatives to you passively and you have to go research yourself. Well, it's so much easier to research when you've got someone who's making sure they're direct messaging you every two days and say, hey, you have any questions about this vitamin or about this product? It's so much easier to buy when you've got a salesperson selling it to you than when he tells you this. Whereas, so you know what I found out after hawking so many MLM products? I'm like, oh my God, every MLM product, there's almost always a cheaper and better alternative on Amazon or elsewhere that they don't tell you about.  The sales people are not gonna tell you. You have to go and find out yourself. Why is it better and cheaper? Let me explain why. MLM, you have to pay all the lines, people. They don't tell you this. Now they tell you, well, no, it's not really, you don't really, the cost is not higher because Amazon has their own marketing costs and these other companies have their own marketing costs. Baloney, that's BS, I'm in business, I know business. I'm like, I've run the numbers. I'm like, no, no, no, I don't care because MLM companies have their own marketing costs too. They also do ads. They also have to do graphic design and hire marketing teams. And they have to pay three levels, five levels, eight levels or sometimes more levels of people, sales people, okay. One product costs $100 but they have to pay salesperson number one, two, three, four, a bunch before they pay the manufacturer. And so of course the product is less, I mean, you get better value by buying from a company that doesn't have all these layers of salespeople. Trust me, I mean, that's called economies of scale. All right, this is called economics, microeconomics. All right, so long story short, let's go back to the original question. Why is it detrimental? And by the way, I'm gonna make sure I don't send this too. I have some friends, some clients who are actually quite successful at MLM. I hope they don't see this because they're gonna get very discouraged or they're gonna hate me once this video comes out. But I'm telling the truth because I'm trying to save the majority of you who, now some people make it. My mom has made so much money in MLM. Actually she ended up investing all of her earnings into new MLM companies and those failed so she ended up having nothing at the end of it. But that's another story. So back to the original question, as a coach, as a consultant, as a whatever you're building, is it harmful to just also talk about this product, especially if this product is even related to your work? Maybe you're a holistic healer and then the essential oil product comes along. DoTERRA, Young Living, great product. I actually have DoTERRA somewhere in my house. My wife loves it. We've used Young Living product, essential oils. Essential oils, I feel like, are the gateway drug for a lot of MLM because it's very pop. I mean, it's very popular. DoTERRA, Young Living, oils, very popular. But also there are, like I said, cheaper and better alternatives probably if you actually do the research on essential. That's a beside. So back to the question. What's the harm? You add to a product and you just happen to mention it every now and then to your clients? I'll tell you the harm, okay? In my opinion. First, the deepest harm, in my opinion, or deepest liability is that you will always be tempted by this dream of MLM. Like I had to cut myself off because it is the most tempting and easiest dream to get back into. Your friends go, look, all these leaders are making all this money, just sitting back and giving talks and going to Hawaii, and which I've been to plenty of those vacation trips, paid for because I recruited enough people. There will always be this dream and it will always be nagging at you and then you will try it and then you'll lose some friends and then you'll, but really the liability is that it takes time and energy away from your own business. Your own business is really the only thing that it can control and I should tell you, by the way, I've been part of several MLM companies that seem really successful and they collapsed. And then I was left with, my God, of all these people who are following me and this company collapsed, we end up going to another company, right? But still it's like, you're never really in control because it's not your own product, it's not your own company. So that's liability number one, liability number two is the reputation is terrible. The person who asked me the question knows this, the reputation of multi-level marketing, other people have heard about it and go, yeah, I wanna stay away from that. It feels really salesy and I have my friends who went crazy over this stuff and yeah, something, you go cuckoo when you get the MLM dream, right? You just go completely nuts. I've been there several times in my life, I'm just completely nuts. I don't see it, it's blind, it's blinding how like shining it is, right? It blinds you, it becomes your God. Okay, you only realize it, but it does. Anyway, and then it's a cult. That's a better way of putting it. Okay, MLMs are cults, okay? Really, the effective ones, right? The ones that recruit people and retain them are by definition cults. All right, we could talk about that all day long. Anyway, but so either people have not heard of it or they have a bad reputation. They look at you like, okay, you're doing that kind of stuff. Instantly they think less of you, okay? And I've been thought of as less of many, many years. That's why I know this. Like they either haven't heard of it and then once you educate them to it, they're like, they either get the bug and they become crazy too or and usually they fail, 99, 95% of MLM people fail, myself included, I'm one of the failures and I was quite successful, right? Still failed or they don't, anyway, that's it. So I wanna say, sometimes the only way to learn the lesson is to do it, however. So if you have watched this video and you still have the bug, you still have the dream, what can I say? You have to try it out. You might be one of the successful ones. You might be one of the good ones that actually don't make it a cult. I don't know. It's weird that I'm ending the video this way but I am always, ultimately, no matter how strong of a stance I take on something, I always believe in diversity of thought. I always believe in diversity of ways because I don't have the only way. So with that very muddy ending, I will leave that to you and for you to decide what to do, I hope this has been helpful in some way and thank you, thank you for asking. Thanks for watching this. And I'll add one more thing. And thanks to those who are live here and giving comments. Everything has a light and dark side, right? Even cults have a light and dark side. Some of my most meaningful interactions, friendships have been in MLM companies. Some of the most personal development that I've grown have been through MLM training and MLM systems and networks and teams. It's true. They have, some of them have really good training that can be applied outside of that system to the rest of business and the rest of life. And so, of course, right? And so that's why I say there's always a diversity of ways and the people watching this, you're gonna take away from this video what you will. Some of you are like, thank you for confirming.   I'm gonna give it a try and see what happens. And please do. And then come back three, five years later and comment on this video and tell me how it went. I love to know. And I'll add one more thing. And I wanna thank the person who just raised this in the chat. One of the things I forgot, but one of the big liabilities of getting involved in MLM is that it's so easy to start thinking of everyone around you as either a potential customer or a potential distributor, potential recruit. Because why? Because, well, no experience needed. You just need to be willing to talk to people and in wanting to make some money. Some side money, just some side money, right? And so everybody becomes a candidate. Why not? Because you wanna have faith in people. That's part of the training. Part of the thing is you have faith. Have faith because they're gonna tell you stories of someone who was working at a gas station and that's all they thought they could do. And then now they're a millionaire because they were willing to talk to people. And so what happened was I lost some of the most precious relationships I had in my life because these were the people, I pushed them hard because they were the ones who were most people-centric. So I thought, well, of course you could succeed. If anyone could succeed in this, you could. You know all these people. You were so good at all these people and I pushed them. And I could have still had that relationship, still had that connection so many times over the years. And so it's like the irony is that, you know if you start, anyway, you might lose some of the most precious friendships and potential business relationships they could have had. So having said that though, like I said, some people meet the most wonderful connections through MLM as well. Some people meet their love of their life then people meet some of their best friends for life. Usually what happens is once I leave the MLM just like with most cults they don't wanna have anything to do with me anymore and that happens with all of them. I still have no friends who I knew from my MLM days because they're onto their, you know, anyway. So take that what you will and make your own wise choice as aligned with your own values and experience.