The following is a presentation of T-F-N-N. Trade what you see with Larry Pezzavento. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER>. Now Larry Pezzavento. Okay folks, this is Billy Ray Valentine. Capricorn joining you for T-F-N-N. Here's what we're going to be looking at today folks. I've taken this across the pond to take a look at the footsie and also the Dax. There's very similar patterns that we're looking at, especially in the footsie is very, very similar to what we're looking at here in the Dow. And I will cover that in just a moment, but I wanted to bring a couple other things to your attention that I think are relatively important. If you remember all week long, we have been talking about the possibility of this three-day rally that we've had here in the Dow Jones. I want to bring this up so you folks can take a look at it. It's done exactly everything we expected it to. It's been up to the 3-8-2 three times. Probably it'll do it the fourth time today. Who knows? This pattern is being talked about in the news folks. I am a strong suspicion that they're going to try to put in a strong close in the market today. But if the market closes below the lows in the Dow that we made today, in other words, down more than 400, you do not want to be long stocks into Monday. And let me explain to you why. One of the things that we know about in these markets is they repeat over and over again. There's nothing new under the sun, just like in the Bible. It says nothing new ever really occurs. So the first thing you want to ask yourself is to what really happened to the Dow Jones and when we had the last COVID and let's see if there's any similarities. So let's bring this up here and we'll bring it up so you can take a look at it.  Here is the Dow Jones in 2020. You see when COVID hit, we were at $30,000. We went all the way down to $17,000 in six weeks, actually one month, and that was $12,000. Now look at that first one, that four-day rally, folks. You see that four-day rally right there? And then look again, you had another. You moved 2,000 points in one day and then went back down again. Then you moved 3,000 points in one day. Can you imagine where we're going to be now when we're trading at these big numbers? We've got to be very, very careful here, folks, because this is what we're looking at right now. It's that exact same pattern. And that exact same pattern is a really, really scary one because if you look at it on a little bit longer timeframe, and that's what we're going to do here. And again, I'm looking at it. I should have these lined up so that I can see them, but by golly, it's just not as easy as I would like to make it. So here's where we are today. Remember what happened in 2020? Okay, there's your four-day rally right there, just right at the 382 retracement. And when I did this, it was 34,168. We're trading quite a bit below that. Well, not quite a bit below, a little bit below it. Anyway, if we close below, in other words, if we're down there near that 33,000 level in the Dow Jones, then that's when you don't want to be long that. Anything under 33,600, low today was around, I think around that price, 33,600. Anything below that low tells you that you're going to see probably a 10,000-point drop in the Dow Jones very, very quickly, probably over a month. And that's a good thing because it's going to give you some nice buying opportunities and selling opportunities all the way down. And remember, this is my interpretation of what I've seen in the past. Does the past always equal the future? Of course it does it. Do the patterns always repeat? No, they repeat sometimes. So all we're trying to do is to find where they are and how they're going to, to unload, how they're going to complete. And if we do that, then we've got something to look at. But the market has to close down there in the Dow Jones around, at around that 33,000 level, that's really what you need to do. Now, the NASDAQ has had tremendous swings here. And that's a good thing. But the trouble is that people in the market don't like big swings like that. So that means that there's probably something changing and that's why it's so very, very important. One other thing is very important. Let's get to the price of Apple.  Look at this. We had really bombastic earnings. It went up to 68. It's now trading at around 65 or 66. Now, I mean, that's still acting pretty good. But if something happens that Apple starts to get lower on the day, which would affect the Dow quite a bit because it's a price weighted stock, it would really make it very, very interesting here because here it'd be a situation where you had super good news and the market didn't respond to it. But right now it's responding to it. There's nothing to be afraid of at all. It's the close today, folks. That last hour of trading is going to be the really important part of this because if we can hold that, and that doesn't mean we can't go down on Monday, it's just that it's got a situation like we had exactly like we had in COVID with the three-day rally, four-day rally, and then rolled over. So if it does that, then you're looking at something that people just don't do the work and go back and see what happened during that last time. Well, I tried to do that whether it's going to work or not. I don't know. You know what else, boys and girls? Nobody else knows either. So the only thing we can do is we can control how much we can risk. And we're seeing swings today. I mean, look at this. Yesterday we had a $2,000 move in the Dow Jones. We had well over 160 handles in the S&P, over 120 handles in the NASDAQ. These are monster moves. That's why your volatility index is going whack almost to the time. Because people are seeing this stuff and they say, oh my God, what do I do now? And that's the main thing that you've got to realize what you're going to do now is to see how it's going to end on Friday. Because if it ends badly on Friday, it's going to look exactly like it did back in 2000. And that's what you don't want to see happen. Well, if you're short, you want to see that happen. If you're long, you don't want to see that happen. The other thing that I think is apparent to many people now, some of these people, these millennials have been out there and they were doing Reddit and Robinhood and all this. Look at Robinhood, folks. It's gone from 90 to 10. And I don't even know if it's still at 10. I just heard it on the news this morning that it was trading at 10. Tesla, that we talked about just last week. If you remember, last week, in fact, we talked about it with that 20-minute number that we had here on Bloomberg on Wednesday. But look what our price objective was last week, folks. If you like ABCD patterns, look what our price objective was, was 800. And we hit 800 today. I saw it traded 802. So that's a sign that that pattern could be completed now. And that might mean the reason that the market could rally.  You'll see that many of these have hit major points. Amazon hit a 618. Microsoft hit a 618. Apple hit a 618. And they've held those numbers. So that could be the reason if the market does decide to turn, they let it down, they could easily lead it back up. So that's the whole key. How it closes today, that last hour, is going to be just so very, very important from my perspective. That's the main thing. Now, the second thing that we need to talk about today is the gold market. Guess what? We have Jeff Hughes as a guest today, Alpha Insights, but before that, we've got to pay a few bills.<PHONE_NUMBER>. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? 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At tfnn, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis, and it's not just dry, tedious text either. tfnn airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com and tfnn's YouTube channel with Tiger TV, live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern. For free, each host is an experienced trader and can take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at tfnn.com or on tfnn's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, tfnn, Educating Investors. At<PHONE_NUMBER>. Okay, we're back, folks, and just for kicks and giggles, I decided to put up a chart here of crude oil. You can see the ABCD pattern there. What's interesting about this is if you'll do the work yourself, you'll start to see that you have this beautiful ABCD pattern and it's also a perfect one when you look at AB equals CD in time. In other words, the distance between the AB leg is equal to the distance in the CD leg. Now, whether this is a major top or not in the crude oil, I don't know, but all I know up there at 8850, you didn't have to risk a whole lot. Now we're trading at 87 and change a little while ago. I don't know where it is now, but that's pretty much what we're watching as we look at these. Those of you that are in the grain business, I highly suggest you take a look at the soybean oil. I don't have those charts ready today because I just got too very busy this morning and I wasn't able to do that. But if you would be so kind as to look at them yourself, you're going to see a three-drive pattern in the soybeans up there around that 1480 level. That's a big expansion number and also crude oil. The March oil has a big 61% retracement up there at 6530. So it's interesting to see how that one is lining up.  And that's the key to what we're looking at. This volatility that we're seeing is just absolutely fantastic. Now, let's get back. We've only got a little bit of time before Jeff comes on and I've got many things to do over the weekend with charts and videos. This week, we've had a terrific week. We've seen pretty much what we thought these markets were going to do. That's not always the case. But look at this, folks. Look what Silver did. Now, this is really incredible now. Last week, if you remember, we were on last Friday and there was a head and shoulders pattern. You can see it just as clear as a bell at 2475. And now we've come down. We've made a 135 pattern down here at 2250. Now, if it breaks anything below 2250 into 2230, something like that, this is going to be a failure of a 135 pattern. And that, my friends, is not very constructive. Now, we've broken down below the 61% retracement in the gold. It's already broken more than $60, which we were expecting it to do. Now, that doesn't mean it's going to turn around and go crazy here. But look where we are here. This is what I sent. I sent this out yesterday and I followed through with it today when we went below that coveted 1790 level. Last I saw was 1780 and changed. But look at this. We went below the 61% retracement. We got all the way down to, I believe, 1780, I believe, or maybe even 1779. Well, the danger at that 61% retracement is the fact that it was only... Look at these wide bars down. You don't have to try to catch a falling knife in this market. Well, you can if you put your stops in. But look at this. This is only two days down from the top. Go back at the top in November. Look how quick it came down there. Go back to the top in September. You don't want to have anything to do with that. That's one of the major danger signals of ABCD folks are these wide-ranging bars, both up and down. I put that in the book. I talk about it all the time. Whether you think it's important or not, not important because it's important to me. So if you pay attention to ABCD, two of the danger signs that you have are wide-ranging bars. Second one is gaps. And the third one is how many days has it been off from the high? In other words, like today in the crude oil, chances of this being a big reversal day to the downside in crude oil is probably nil. But if it is, you know, crude oil is already broken a dollar from the high. If it breaks two or three dollars from the high, that's going to tell you something. Whether that's occurring or not, God only knows and she happens to not be trading today. That's how we know that. But look at the, if you have your trading, your trade, what you see letter, go look at the charts in the FANG index, how they lined up perfectly with these, just like we did with Apple, just like we did with Microsoft, just like we did with Tesla. All of those came in pretty much where they were supposed to. And that could be the reason that we have a really good close here today, that this is an important bottom for some wild stretch of somebody's imagination. But if we close badly, and if we close badly and that's the key, that's where you want to be careful because that's where you really, really run into some serious problems with these things. So that's the main thing to remind yourself of that. That's what I think is important. Anyway, of course, since this is my show, I'll say it's important, but that's neither here nor there. Okay, now we'll move on here to the next one here that we want to take a look at. We've covered the gold, we've covered the silver. Folks, we have an explosive move in natural gas. Look at this move we were looking at yesterday. Hold on a second. Yeah, that Alibaba is making a triple bottom. To me, I can't touch Alibaba here. Your risk is very, very small here in Alibaba. But frankly, this is such an important day, folks. I mean, I heard Basil talk about it because if we close badly, and we're a long way from the close, folks, we got, what, four hours and a half to go, and if this thing turns around like it's done many times, you could be looking at something really, really disastrous in this. The key to this whole thing, folks, is the chart of the S&P. We did all of these. We did the 3-8-2 on every single one of these. I want to do it again because it's that important. Look, we made a bottom on the 24th, okay? We rallied for three days really strong. We went from 33,000 into Dow up to 34,800. We rallied 1,500 Dow points right at, pretty much right at the 3-8-2 of the high. We stayed there twice. We went back there and hit it twice. Yesterday we came down and we tested it again this morning at 33,600. We're trading at 34,000 right now. And if we can close above 34,000, 35,000, then this has got a chance that there's been some strong distribution and accumulation in here. One of the two we're going to know by the close, I think. But if we close badly below that red line, be long at your own risk, at your own apparel, because that is not going to be, it's going to be exactly what it did in 2020. And guess what? We had COVID in 2020, and today they came out with variant number 29 or something like that. I have to tell you a quick story too. I sent John Jameson some books yesterday by Federal Express. There's some rare books. It cost me $373 to send them to the UK. They weighed 10 pounds, all right? This morning at six o'clock, John called me to tell me that FedEx had called him and they were at the London airport. Of course, he's in the Isle of Man. It'll take a couple of days to get there. But they would not deliver the package to him unless he answered a series of 30 questions. What's it in it? How much did you pay for it? Is it a gift? Does it have any bullets? Does it have any acid? I mean, 30 questions. And then when he went through the whole thing, the guy said, yes, you've been approved. You will get it on Wednesday. So I mean, you talk about a different world that we've lived in before. That's what we're into. But anyway, that's what's going on over there. I thought you'd be interesting to know that's how much it costs to send something somewhere if you want to get it there in a hurry, which isn't too bad. You stop and think it's 10 pounds. So that's $32 a pound. You get a child on an airplane from Tucson to the UK. It's going to cost you probably 800 bucks. Pretty much a fair deal, I guess, but, you know, we'll see. Okay, now, here's another one that's in big trouble. And I still think we're doing it. The dollar is still strong. When the dollar is strong, gold is weak. Euro is heading down to this area right here. It means the dollar is going to be strong. 877-976648. Stay tuned for Jeff Huge, Alpha Insights. Are you having fun trading the markets but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with? Become an Apex creditor in the trading markets and join the Tiger's Den Trading Room only at tfnn.com. The Tiger's Den is an exclusive trading room where successful traders from around the world come to exchange trades and ideas. Join the Den and surround yourself with the sharpest minds in the trading world. Subscribers to the Tiger's Den are also the first to have their questions answered live on air and can privately chat with our TFNN hosts live during their shows. Interact with other Tigers and Tiger's as they share trading ideas, news analysis, and discuss the Market Action All Trading Day. 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Okay, we're back, folks, and I believe we have Jeff Hughes, Alpha Insights on the line, and he's going to talk to us first about trend analysis. Good morning to you, Jeff. Hey, good morning, Larry. How are you today? Very good, my friend. Very good. So what are you seeing here in the trend? Well, you know, obviously, we've had a little problem in the trend over the course of the last week or so. You know, we've been monitoring this thing on a daily closed basis just to take some of the noise out. The chart you're looking at goes back to, you know, the March 23rd lows of 2020. And, you know, the trend was fine. It was moving just fine, despite the fact that we've had, you know, huge overvaluation in the top seven stocks, heavy concentration, a lot of leverage. But, you know, the silver lining of an uptrend has been broken now, and we have corrected a full 10% from its peak to the trough. And I think this is normal in a bull market. A lot of people, I think, are overreacting to this pullback. It's not that unexpected. Especially if you look at how historical mid-cycle election years trade, January is almost always down. I think it's got like a 90% history of being a down month. And we usually get a rally into late first quarter, early April. And so that's what I would be hoping for if things play out historically. We've pulled back through, you know, trend support, and what I would describe as initial support at 4500, and we're now testing 4300, which is critical support, and it also marks the 55 weeks simple moving average, which historically has been a great barometer for intermediate term trend. And so my hope is that, you know, we can hold that level and develop some sort of a base here, and then I'd be looking for a chance to do that. I think it's going to be interesting now.  You want to tell the folks what you're looking at here? Well, there's two narratives, really. You know, the preferred count is the bull. You know, the preferred count is the bull. So one of the things that really resonates with me in the preferred count is the fact that the current pattern, which is really of intermediate term degree, that 3, 4 looks almost identical to the 3, 4 of primary degree, which is one degree lower, that parentheses, 3 parentheses, 4 below it. And so, you know, we put in that wave 4 low in March of 2020, and we've rallied up here, and it looks to me like the low that I'm hoping we're putting in right now could be wave 4 of intermediate wave 5 of cycle degree 5. And so, if in fact we are putting in a tradable bottom, we could get quite a rally. In fact, by my count, the S&P has the potential to rally to 5400. That's the bull case. Now the alternate count to the right of that actually illustrates the bear case. And the bear case is simply this. The market topped on January 4th, that was the top, and it wasn't just intermediate wave 5, but also primary wave 5, cycle wave 5 and super cycle wave 1 or 3, however you want to count it. And the implication for that is quite dire. That would suggest that we are on the precipice of a major correction of biblical proportions frankly. That's pretty severe. One of your specialties of course is your value versus growth, and you've got a chart here that shows that this is breaking out. Obviously we're very focused on relative strength in our work, and at this point we're looking at a 15-year monthly close only chart of the value growth ratio. We're using the pure value index versus the pure growth index. So there's no overlap whatsoever between the constituents here. And that ratio actually bottom in 2020 rallied to a interim high in 2021, and then pulled back and put in what looks to me to be a double bottom. And we have since rallied through moving average resistance, trend resistance and chart resistance. And the thing that really is convincing about this is the fact that structural momentum, the lower panel has led price the entire way, and that is a very, very bullish indication. So I think at this point value is leading growth, and that is potentially very sustainable. So if it's true then growth investors probably need to reposition their portfolios. Okay. Now the Fed met this week and they talked about interest rates and you've got a nice chart here on the interest rates rising. So I would like you to explain to the folks what you're looking at here. Absolutely. So, this might be the most important chart in history. And I say that perhaps in the context of my own career, which only dates back to 1990, but we've been in a 40-year bull market for bonds that started around 1980 or so. And what this chart is really telling us is that that bull market and bonds may very well be over. We've already put in what I would describe as a classic pattern base formation of the inverted head and shoulders variety. And it has already resolved to the upside when we took out the 177 level on the 10-year bond yield. That implies a move to about 3%. Well, and it's not illustrated on this chart, but the 40-year trend line actually bisects at 268. So we would then have broken out above that 40-year trend and that would be a clear indication that the trend is turning to the upside. And, you know, frankly, the bigger picture implication here is that asset prices in general, which have been based on this perpetual low interest rate environment, will have to reprice or recalibrate or re-rate to a higher interest rate environment going forward. And that would favor value stocks over growth stocks as well. Well, that's really good. And their next one sort of verifies that this is the one when you're looking at the rates as correlated with interest rates. Is that correct? That's right. So we've really just taken this same chart, the 15-year ratio of value to growth and we've overlaid the 10-year bond yield and we've come up with a correlation coefficient of over 80%, 0.81 to be exact. And, you know, what we're thinking is that if rates are breaking out, we do get a rally to 3% on the 10-year bond yield, then I think that this rotation from growth to value is just getting started. And we could see, you know, that ratio is actually up 10% year-to-date. We could see it up another 20-25% over the course of the next 12-18 months. Wow. Holy cow, that's really interesting. Now the next one that I'm really interested in to hear what you have to say is Halburton, the war stock. So are we going to go to war? I don't know if we are or not, but the only sector in the S&P 500 that's actually generated positive return year-to-date is the energy sector. And if we're going to dig around the oil patch for opportunities, I don't want to buy something that looks too stretched, right? And I think the oil services stocks are one of those spots where you can actually find a very fat pitch and Halburton appears to be just that, putting in an inverted head and shoulders base, and it's clearly resolved for the upside. The stock actually just made a new 52-week high this week. Wow. That's good. Hey, Jeff, thanks for joining us, my friend, and we'll have you on again in a couple of weeks, and stay safe and keep up that great work, buddy. Oh, thanks so much, Larry. You too. You're a prince among the man, my friend. Are you on the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area, including the surrounding St. Petersburg, Tampa, and Clearwater markets? Tiger Real Estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay Area. 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Ok folks, I've put a chart up of the NASDAQ that pretty much describes what's been happening all week up and down since the 24th. We had a bottom rallied up to the 382. We've been attempting to get through that, which is quite a bit away from where we are right now, but there's a lot of time left for trading so it can go either way. The close today is the most important folks because if we close poorly, all of this stuff that happened in between today is nothing more than cannon fodder. In other words, it doesn't mean a whole lot. And believe me, with all these things setting up with all the NASDAQ stocks that I look at with the Fang stocks, they hit major support. You look at the 24-7 newsletter you're going to see it and we stopped exactly at the one standard deviation. We talked about that several times. You can see it did it twice. Let me just get it up here so you can see it. Until we go below those numbers we're still in a bull market. The fact is this one right here happens to be the NASDAQ and is trading at let me see the last time I put this up, it was trading at $14,250. I have no idea where it is, but my guess is it's probably close to $14,250. Can someone give me a price on what the E-mini NASDAQ is doing right now? That number in the S&P is around $43.30, I believe, $43.25. So it's $43.50 was a 58% retracement yes on the E-mini S&P but the NASDAQ is the one that's important because it's the one that led us down, it's the one that's led us up so if it's going to lead us up it's going to be pretty doggone strong. It's very strong, right there it is $42.25 I said $42.25 and there it is $42.22. So today's close is it. If you close above $42.22 then I think you've got a chance for more of a rally but this market has a tendency to look very, very poorly in the morning and then come back in the end of the day and that's mainly because of the algorithmic traders folks they know where these numbers are do you know how I know that because they run this stuff by computers and computers do one thing and they pick up numbers and when they start seeing those numbers pop up they might know might not know that they're 618 or 1.27 or 618 or anything like that but they know those numbers are there when they see prices move around those numbers that's how they build their programs and the low that we made today in the Dow Jones which turned the whole thing was down there at 36,000 36,600 and excuse me 33,600 let's try it again Larry 33,600 we've rallied 500 handles we just hit 34,200 so 600 handles so and these swings we have you know nothing for the Dow to move 1,000 and 2,000 points in a day with these big swings I will say this sometime in this cycle whatever it happens to be we're going to see a day with the Dow Jones down more than 1,500 points and that's not going to be a lot because the most we've had it in any one day down was 900 points if you remember a couple weeks ago so what history does it's it repeats itself but not in the same ratio and proportion it will be 900 times 1,618 and that takes you to 1,500 and defy human nature go prove it to yourself and you'll see it over and over again that's just how the old market works and sometimes it works better than you might think it does but it's out there to glean as much money of yours that they can so the secret is like I say many times here it's not how much money you make it's how much money you don't lose and that's the thing that you want to really be focusing on as you look at this the overall picture in gold folks I wanted to bring this to your attention here because if gee whiz I have a new gold chart if I can just find the doggone thing Larry guess what Billy Ray Valentine Capricorn here's what I think is happening to gold with a very very high probability here folks let's get this up here you'll be able to see it here this is the daily chart over the past several months you'll notice that we just made the 78% level up there in 1852 we're now trading down below 17 where I think the last I saw was 1785 but that sets up a 1727 folks we're only 60 bucks away we've gone that much in three days we could easily be there why Wednesday or Thursday or you could you know sometime next week we could be at 1725 and that's going to be at ABCD taking out the lows of October oh my goodness Christmas day and not only that it's going to be equal to the move down that we had from the 15th of October down into the 15th of December 15th of November down to the 15th of November down to the low of December 15 30 days down so if you take the 25th that would get you down to hopefully you'd like to see that around the 23rd or 24th of February you'd like to see it trading right around 1725 1718 in a very very quiet market hopefully with an ABCD in between bada bing bada boom mother god country you light up the boat filling up with the gold coins and let it rip but that's what you'd like to see because you've washed out everybody on the long side now you want to get him down here to where you'd like to be a buyer right around 1725 to 1718 so that's the program that I'm looking at and that's what I'm sticking to it the only thing that will change my mind is that if we hold 1775 here next week and then start to rally that's the 78% level I don't think we will but if it does I'll be looking possibly to put a buy on there at 1775 because that's an exact 786 off the low December 13th folks this is not hard stuff I mean you look at ABCD and look at a few ratios this is not rocket science so that's the main thing of what we're what we're looking at with these things so hopefully that's something that you can hang your hat on we've got any questions coming in Al says it's impossible to get through today so don't even try to send your questions in folks or to call in because it's just not fair Bob you're right options are the best thing to do if you learn to do options unfortunately I've never done options at the number of times I've traded an option is very very rare but if you learn to be an options trader with this type of information that you're given here at TFNN you will be a winner because if you learn to be an option seller you've got the odds in your favor 85% folks 85% of the people that write options make money 15% of the people that buy calls and puts lose money gee that's really a tough one to figure out of course sometimes it puts and calls work out really good but boy your timing better be impeccable impeccable because if it's not and if it's not they're going to be teaching you a really really sad lesson here so remind ourselves of that okay anyway I do suggest people that starting in the business to start with the options because that's the easiest way to go you can't get hurt if you're writing options you know knowing how to protect yourself on the other side that that's really the way to really the way to move this someone asked me would I be a buyer of Apple folks I don't buy stocks but Apple made a beautiful number down there that just go look at the chart it made the exact 61% retracement I'll just bring it up here so you can see it here and of course I had a heck of a good rally here but three days ago it made a beautiful 61% retracement at $155 we're trading $10 at least $10 higher at $165 I saw a little while ago so that that's already completed that that move from that so let's take a little break eight seven seven nine two seven six six four eight sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument you have to practice sure but you also need excellent instruction from experts at TFNN you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis and it's not just dry tedious text either TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV live every market day from 8 30 a.m. to 4 p.m. Eastern for free each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while trading calls and questions live from around the world from the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be TFNN educating investors you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock you're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future right like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts you might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices selective stocks and commodities subscribe to the opening call newsletter at TFNN.com the opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman a trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave the Chapman Wave up down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman and your inbox every day first time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up TFNN.com educating investors are you looking for a secured investment which pays you on a monthly basis the target first mortgage program may be the program for you the best rate on a five year cd in the country right now according to bankrate.com is paying 1% per year or $1,000 per $100,000 invested the target first mortgage program pays 7% per year paid monthly on secured high value billable properties in st. Petersburg, Florida the investment is for four years paying 7% per year or $7,000 or $100,000 invested your investment is secured by high value real estate in st. Petersburg, Florida your investment can be anywhere from $100,000 to $500,000 you want to make $1,000 per year on $100,000 invested or $7,000 per year on a secured target first mortgage the target first mortgage program may be just the program for you the target first mortgage program pays 7% per year paid monthly for more information you can call<PHONE_NUMBER> okay folks here is the chart of the Treasury bonds holding up extremely well here given the fact that the Federal Reserve came out and said we're going to raise rates and they're going to continue raising rates which they do but this market's been very oversold it's just reversing some of that right now we'll get a nice rally probably up to that 159 level would be a great short again but that's something we want to pay attention to now Shane Smollion has just reminded me that next month actually it'll be on Tuesday we start the year the tiger with the new moon and folks if you want to see a beautiful new moon forming go out tonight or early in the morning and look at this beautiful beautiful moon it's just getting ready to move to almost total darkness but we can see the you can see the outline of the earth I mean it's just absolutely incredible so anyway this is going to be really exciting and we do have that new moon coming in which will be the year of the tiger for Tiger Financial News Network and we're going to see more volatility next year this year that we did all last year and you can already see what's going on now you know 500 up thousand down 500 up I mean drive anybody nuts unless your pattern recognition swing trader then you get a little bit of advantage on your side but not all the time by the way on that crude oil folks if we close above 89 I would I wouldn't even touch it because you know we had a nice pattern up there the timing was perfect for today it's had a dollar a barrel break and as long as it doesn't go back and make new high the risk would be very small there and we would wait until over the weekend and Monday to take a look at it because you don't want to risk anything at that level the same thing in the soybean oil market it would be the same thing if that thing gets above that 65 90 level 66 there's something certainly wrong with excuse me that 60 if it gets above that 66 50 level there's certainly something wrong in the oil but there's a weather market going on in there folks so unless you're an experienced trader you know don't even bother to touch it it's just too wild just my opinion folks today's close is where it goes if it closes good we go up if it closes bad we go down see you on the flip side Monday folks J.C. Parrots all start charts will be our guests may god bless


Hi! Joe here with Predator JSB. I'm here at the 2023 parent air cup. It's been a long time. Real happy to be back. You guys should be here if you're not here. I'm sorry about this because it's too late if you saw this video.  Watch the bench rest. Watch the field target for sure. Talk about a few products that we might have coming down the pipeline. You know, I didn't say this. Maybe I did say this. But for all you guys, you know what we do. We know what we sell. And if you look down the line, it's all they're shooting, which is nice. But yeah, we do have some products coming out. Possibly a heavier 25 and 22 Hades. Possibly. I'm not gonna say that I've shot the 25s yet and they shoot really good, but you know, don't tell Jay. But hey, if you guys get a chance, go to parent air. They got a lot of stuff. They sell a lot of Predator GSB pellets and we're happy to be a sponsor here at the 2023 Pyramid Air Cup.


I have another witty comment, but it's really not that witty. It's just a quick tip, John. And maybe one of you will have an idea for me that's even better than this. But when I'm out riding my bike, I have my phone in like a pouch on my on my bike, but I'm not using it. I don't have any reason. I have like a little mount for my bike, but I don't use that. So I have my phone with me, but I use my watch to track my ride. But bike riding time is very much for me like meditative time. And I have ideas that I don't want to forget. And so I'm always worried about like, how am I going to capture these ideas? And so what I've learned to do is just raise my watch up to my face and say, hey, s lady, text myself. And then it'll ask what I want to say. And I text myself whatever thought popped into my head. And then when I get back to the office or wherever, I've got this text trail with myself of all these little random ideas. And it works awesome. But I'm thinking there might even be a better way than this. But it's super efficient to just say, you know, Siri, text myself. And it works great. So if any of you have an even better idea, let us know feedback at Mackey Cub dot com.


Yr unig iawn, ac rwy'n cael eu bod yn bwysig am gyda'r unig i chi i chi'n gwybod, nid i'ch sy'n gwybod gyda'r unig. Rwy'n cael ei wneud eu gwbl ydych chi'n cymdeithasio i gydag o'r byddwyr yng ngyreithio weithgawr i fynd i chi'r ymarfer y byddwyr ar y pandemig, ac yn ymwysig i'r byd, o'r llunau dechrau. Byddwch chi'n gweithio'r gweithio yw'r bydd yng Nghymru yn ymwyaf i'r Gweithio Unidol, mae'r byddwch yn ymylion 1.7 bilion ymddangos gyda'r cyflwyng ymddangos ym Ysgrifod ym Mhwysoedd UK yn ymwyaf. Efallai'n meddwl iawn gyda'r gweithio cyllidol ymddangos ymddangos yn ymweld o'r 13,000 ymddangos ymddangos ymddangos yma, ac yn ystafodio i gael bod hwnnw hwnnw 100,000 ysgol, sydd wedi gael ei ddweud y cwm yw'r cyfrifod. Rwyf yn ystafod, oedd y byd yma, rwyf wedi gweithio cyfle cyflos o ffas three o'r fund o'r rhesunwch cyflosol. Yr rhaid y ffordd rhaid, mae'n ddod am 300 miliwn, i gweithio ar gyfer yng Nghymru, yn ymddangos i ddeallu ar gyfer y ffyrwyr y ddod am ychydig gan hynny i gael i'n dweud i gael eisiau cyfrifod sy'n bwysig o'r rhan o'r Brexit transisiwn o'r cyffredin. Ond yw'r bobl sy'n gweithio o'r resulio arlau 3 os ymweld y ddweud yn dw i'r ffwrdd nifer. First, mae'n gwneud 200 miliwn pwysig o'r bobl cyffredin o'r gweithio ar gyfer mwylo'r gweithio, byddai gweithio'r bwysig o'r cyffredin o'r gweithio yn ei ddweud o'r gweithio ar gyfer mwylo'n cwilio yn gwneud. Celιο hwn yn fan, yn dweud datblygu'r 60,000 micro cyfnodwch iawn yn anhygoel gyda wirshol sy'n helpu gyda gael fod yn gwasanaeth gwasanaeth gweithreig i gydig i'r gwneud eu ceisio ar gyfer y gorffod yma. Rydym yn ffordd i sicrhau portau os ymddir ymddemol gwahanol yma. Yn yma, mae ym 100 miliwn cyfrannu perfyniad am yr ymddirdd ym eich sydd Hynny, y dylai'r llwyddon yw'r lluniau sy'n fawr yn ddechrau sydd hwnnw'n hynny. Mae hynny, wrth gyrfa wnaeth yma, yn ddiweddol ar gyfer y cwrthod argyn iawn o bainfod ar gyfer gyfanyddol, ond o'r gyrfa'r projeg sydd ffosfyrdd yma ymlaen o'r cyfansodd ac o'r brexitu hyffordd. Y cwrthod ar gyfansodd yma, mae'r cwrthod ar gyfer gyfansodd ar gyfansodd, dyfansodd ar y cyfansodd a'r cyfansodd ar gyfer y cyfansodd. Felly, we have therefore paused this part of the fund last Thursday as we have reached the indicative limit. But I want to be clear, this pause does not affect the larger element of the fund. The £200 million of lockdown business grants which remain available and are designed to provide the emergency support to get businesses through this immediate fire break. So, retail, leisure and hospitality businesses with rateable values between £12,000 and £51,000 are eligible for a £5,000 grant. Every business eligible for small business rates relief is eligible for a £1,000 grant combined with a discretionary £2,000 grant being available for those businesses forced to close by the fire break lockdown and with a rateable value of £12,000 or less. And there's a further £1,000 grant available to those businesses affected by local lockdown restrictions prior to the start of the fire break. All of this, some two thirds of the fund remains available to businesses in Wales and I'd encourage all businesses to take advantage of this help. In addition, we also have available a £25 million lockdown discretionary grant for businesses that are closed or material impacted but crucially which do not pay business rates. As well as of course £5 million additional help for individuals not protected by the UK government's job retention scheme. Now I'm pleased to announce that through the lockdown business funds so far more than £11 million has already been paid to businesses since the fire break was introduced supporting 7,500 people in work and this is only the beginning. We also continue to work with our partners in local authorities to expand the discretionary package of the lockdown funds being which are beginning to come under pressure in some areas. I should also make clear that this support is in addition to that on offer from the UK government. The job retention scheme and the self-employed income support scheme have both been enhanced in recent days and while I remain deeply concerned that these things were not done sooner and in a more equitable way for the devolved nations, they are nonetheless very welcome indeed. I note the commitment as well by the Prime Minister on November 2 that the furlough scheme will continue to be available wherever and whenever other parts of the UK decide to go into future lockdown measures and I look forward to considering the Chancellor's Statement later today. Now in regard to business grant payments we are working as hard and as quickly as we possibly can are, collective aim on both phases of support, the business development grants and the lockdown business grants is to process applications as soon as possible. Assessment of the business development grants has already commenced and the first payments will be made in the coming 10 days. In regard to the lockdown business grants and local discretionary support we have been clear that we want payments to be made within 30 days of the registration or application but again our aim is for payments to be processed as quickly as possible. Now I realise there are some who have been frustrated by our pause on business development grants but the eligibility checker for funds was open since October 9 on the Business Wales website and businesses were preparing to apply for some weeks. However it is clear the demand for these forward looking grants has been exceptionally high and we are also aware some may have perceived the fund as being for emergency support rather than preparing for the longer term. Applications I can assure you will be assessed on the basis of quality, not on the basis of first come, first served. I have seen some of the quality applications that have come through. A wedding business wanting to develop their premises to expand the number of people that they can host to increase their turnover and protect jobs. A tourism business able to renovate their property in a sustainable way to increase footfall and lower their energy bills. It's shown that despite the challenges of Covid many businesses have strong and creative ideas about how to position their firms coming out of this pandemic and to future proof their businesses for tomorrow and we want to support them in this work. I can tell you today that we are actively considering the economic position and how future packages of support can support our Covid response and the end of the transition period and I'm pleased to confirm my colleague finance minister has set aside funding for a fourth phase of the economic resilience fund to support businesses and employees. We are currently developing a mechanism for businesses to express interest in that fund in the coming weeks and we will keep businesses updated through Business Wales online. This will ensure that those businesses who have not yet been able to successfully apply for business development grants can continue to make plans for the future. But I want to be clear, this should also indicate to the UK government the scale of the challenge that we face. The greatest risk to the economy is in not doing enough, soon enough to support businesses, which is why we immediately mobilise Business Wales, the Development Bank of Wales and partners in local government at the outset of this pandemic, armed with the United Kingdom's most generous and comprehensive package of support here in Wales. We are doing everything we can as a devolved government to help businesses through these difficult times and to position it well for the future, but there is more the UK government can do to help in that task. Now I am sorry to have to report that I have been made aware of a number of instances over the past week where Business Wales helpline staff have not been subjected to verbal abuse and aggressive behaviour. This is utterly unacceptable and this repugnant behaviour I am afraid of people abusing people is apparent elsewhere as well in the health service for example, in shops and online. We are fighting this virus together, showing others a little courtesy and respect makes a big difference to people's emotional and mental resilience. Whether you are in the private sector, the public sector, the third sector, whether you are a nurse, you are a shop worker, a railway worker, a call centre worker, you deserve to be treated with respect and compassion, which brings me to the final matter I would like to share with you today. Coronavirus is causing many harms to our health, to our economy and to our mental health. The economic scars will take a concerted effort to heal, so too the emotional and mental scarring that so many people are experiencing. But before this crisis, we in Welsh government wanted better mental health to be a bigger consideration of employers and through the economic contract we encourage businesses to do as much as possible to support better mental and emotional health in the workforce. And we are now at the point of refreshing that economic contract and given the many harms caused by coronavirus we will ensure that improving mental health becomes an even more significant component of our something for something relationship with employers. Thank you and I'm happy to take questions beginning with Adrian Masters from ITB Wales. Good afternoon Adrian. Good afternoon Minister and thank you. I realise that you've been talking while the Chancellor's been speaking but you'll have some idea of what he's been announcing, which is that the furlough scheme will be extended until the end of March and will be available across the UK. Also that the UK government is increasing the Barnett guarantee to the devolved nations from 14 billion to 16 billion. The figure I understand for Wales is 600 million which would bring the extra Covid funding to 5 billion for this year. So I wonder whether you would like to add to your welcome from earlier on and acknowledge that the UK government has moved to meet your concerns and related to that. Is it enough to support companies who mainly do business with companies in England who will now be shut for a month and if not what extra support they need. Well thank you Adrian. Unfortunately the media appears briefed ahead of Welsh government ministers on the further support from UK government but I do welcome what appears to be an announcement that meets what the Welsh government has been calling for for some time and of course there is a necessity to support people for as long as it takes to get through the pandemic. So I would welcome the Chancellor's announcement today. Of course I'll be digesting the detail of the announcement and the implications for Wales but as I said in my statement the greatest risk to the economy to our well-being, our economic well-being is in doing too little and too late. So it's absolutely essential that the UK government if further support is needed brings it forward as soon as possible and I think it also shows the value today of a union of Great Britain and Northern Ireland working together to overcome the economic crisis of coronavirus. Now in regards to the support for businesses in Wales, the businesses that might rely on supply chains within England, of course through business Wales we are able to offer advice and support but our business grants are designed specifically for the purpose of supporting businesses during our firebreak period but also in the longer term those business development grants are designed to future proof businesses to get them through the longer term and to become more resilient and more efficient. And to be able to thrive in the future, not merely survive. Thank you and thank you for responding to the Chancellor's literally just finished announcing that so much appreciated. I'd like as a second question to get some clarification please on the rules of the number of people that can meet up in the setting such as a pub, cafe or restaurant. The guidelines which have published today say that they just have to be distanced. Does that mean two metres because not many places have tables that could accommodate for people with a two metre distance in a distance between them and that would make it unviable for them to open? Yeah we recognise the challenges in many venues Adrian but I can tell you that the frequently asked questions for hospitality have just gone online on Welsh Government pages. That will include all of the guidance necessary for hospitality businesses to be able to operate in the safest way including their responsibilities in regard to safe social distancing. And I'll now move to Sarah Dickens from BBC Wales. Good afternoon Sarah. Good afternoon Minister and it's good to be here. You've acknowledged that there was like a huge huge interest in the business development grants and they were paused because of that. You say it wasn't a first come first serve but you know you don't know the quality of the applications that didn't get through before this pause. In the light of clearly real demand for help you say you're pleased that the fourth phase of the grant is going to be funded. How are you going to make sure that it works better for people next time and that we don't have the frustrations we saw last week? Well first of all Sarah it would appear that a number of businesses were trying to access support through the business grants fund for emergency cash. That's not what the fund was designed for it was abundantly clear on the website that the grants available for development are for the longer term. It's for business resilience in a post COVID post Brexit era. With the economic resilience fund moving to phase four and the finance minister has already set aside £300 million for that next phase. We will be opening up a register of interest for businesses. Those businesses that have put together quality proposals for grant support will be able to register their interest. I would urge them to keep all of the documentation that they have gathered together so that when that register goes on we can start scrutinising at the earliest possible time all of the decent applications that are submitted. And I think it's absolutely right that we take the time to be able to do that before then hitting go on the actual fund opening. That we are able to ascertain all information in order to shape that fourth phase of the economic resilience fund so that it best meets business demand. And returning to furlough many people were welcome that it's been extended to March. Of course for workers that's only 80% of their pay. That's a 20% pay cut. We're reminded by the resolution foundation again today just how many people in Wales are on very low wages. What more can you do to cushion those people because a 20% cut in your pay for a couple of months is one thing. But for a year that will mean a lot of Welsh families struggling if anything goes wrong like the washing machine breaking down. Well there are a number of important points there I think you've touched on. First of all I think the report from the resolution foundation from locking down to levelling up. It's a superb report. What it demonstrates first and foremost is that whilst many are now talking about levelling up the Welsh government has been levelling up within Wales. The report finds that geographical gaps within Wales have shrunk including crucially in productivity terms and that's whilst the UK as a whole has seen gaps growing. Of course there is more that can be done. There is more that must be done and especially in terms of the role that the UK government has whilst they've been talking about levelling up. It can't just be about a sprinkling of new investment in terms of infrastructure here and there. What is required is a concerted effort to decentralise and deconcentrate power and wealth from the south east to the rest of the UK. Both in terms of infrastructure spend yes but also in other areas of investment for example I think possibly just as important in terms of research and development and innovation funding. Now only the UK government has the fiscal firepower to be able to put together a scheme such as a job retention scheme. It's a matter for the UK government as to what level the intervention rate should fall out. I believe that it's absolutely vital as a minimum that it should be 80%. But of course even with 80% as you've identified Sarah there will be people who will struggle. People who will struggle. And that's why we have increased the level of support that's available through the discretionary assistance fund. But the beauty of the union of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is that we can redistribute wealth when and where necessary. Now is the time for a major redistribution of wealth and power from the south east of England to the rest of the UK. And I'm pleased that we are doing just that levelling up within Wales as shown by the resolution foundation. It's now over to the UK government to do it to work with us because we share that aspiration and ambition to level up. And I'll now move to Abby Whitwick from Wales online. Oh no I won't. I'll move to Dan Bevan. Sorry. Sorry Dan. It's good to see you. LBC. Thank you very much minister. I want to stick with furlough if that's all right. I wondered if because there are other developed nations across Europe but also in other parts of the world who have got more generous packages and had them announced several months ago. Similar to furlough that extend far beyond March whether you feel like this announcement from the Chancellor might have come a bit late. Thank you Dan. I said a little earlier that I think it has come quite late. I welcome it nonetheless but it's absolutely vital when responding to a crisis that you are swiftly with sufficient resource. My personal view is that there are very successful models that have operated for many years not just during the course of the pandemic in Europe. And add flag up first and foremost the German model and the French model as being exemplars. And I think UK could learn from those models in implementing longer term strategies for overcoming crises of this nature. Because in all likelihood we will we will experience future events future recessions that will require a significant intervention by the UK government. Learning from others our European partners is absolutely essential in shaping the best possible packages of support. Dan. Thank you for that answer Minister. And also if I could touch on your polio from being the Minister for North Wales as well as the economy. Will there be any further support for businesses who are in communities that are very near the border particularly in North Wales that have those shared communities with England? And because clearly they're going to be hit a lot harder when Wales comes out of the firebreak on Monday whilst England is still in a month long lockdown. Well Dan you make a really interesting point on the flip side of course. Those businesses will have a very captive audience in the people in Wales will not be able to access non essential retail across the border in Chester or in Oswestry. They will not need to cross the border because it will be open here in Wales. So hospitality businesses non essential retail in Wales will have a captive market. And that's something surely that they will be able to celebrate for four weeks during which their equivalents in England are in lockdown. And I'll now move on to Abby. Abby Whitwick Wales online. Let me just go back to that point at what effect will England's lockdown have on Wales's tourism and hospitality sector? And would it not have been better for everybody to have coordinated the dates of the lockdowns? And what work has been done to avoid that if there are further lockdowns further down the line earlier in the new year will you be talking more closely with Westminster and why has that not been coordinated up to now? Abby, you've raised a number of questions here. I'll try to get through them as quickly and concisely as I possibly can. First of all, coordinated dates obviously would have been desirable. We were pushing for a concerted UK wide programme of restrictions, but we could not wait on the UK government any longer. And as a result of us initiating the firebreak when we did we were able to introduce a two week firebreak. Whereas in England, because there's that delay, that delay, they now have to endure four weeks of lockdown. Now, of course, in the future, if any further measures, if any further measures were needed, I would prefer and the government would prefer a four nations approach. And the First Minister, Mark Rathford, has very regularly said that a regular rhythm of dialogue is needed across the four nations to achieve that consistent approach. And I'm pleased that certainly all of the messages are there in terms of Christmas, a UK wide approach will be negotiated, discussed and agreed. And I think that's absolutely vital. And in terms of business support, we have here in Wales the most generous package of support anywhere in the United Kingdom. On top of that, we are enduring a lockdown for just four more days, whereas England today going to a lockdown for four weeks. And for businesses in tourism and hospitality, of course, there will be challenges for those who rely on English visitors. They are able to take advantage of UK government schemes like the furlough scheme. That's going to be absolutely vital in helping them to hibernate through the winter periods in many instances. But we have made available above and beyond what UK government have been able to offer Wales support specifically for those sectors. So we ring-fenced in ERF tens of millions of pounds for tourism and hospitality, recognising the unique challenges that those sectors are going to experience. Thank you. My second question is about young people. People under 25 are, some reports, say three times more likely to be working in sectors that have been shut down. And that also applies to people over 25 who are paid lower. What specific help can you offer and what assurance can you offer those people, specifically young people under 25? Abby, thank you for that question. You know, we know from previous recessions that those who are most disadvantaged during the course of a recession immediately after the recession in the early parts of a recovery are young people. And we will not allow this to happen again during this pandemic or after this pandemic. Later this month I'll be publishing a recovery and reconstruction plan for the economy. And we are prioritising support for young people. We will ensure that through our skills and employability programmes we incentivise employers to take on young people and to take on as well other individuals who are often in recessions from history we have learnt it, often the most marginalised, disadvantaged. Now I add to the list disabled people, people from background backgrounds and also women as well. We will do all that we can as a Welsh Government to invest in those people and support those businesses that wish to recruit those individuals. But of course as part of the leveling up agenda that the UK government is taking forward we want to work with UK government ministers to ensure that inequalities within society, within our nations, within our regions are ironed out. They're shrunk that we give opportunities to all. I'll now move to Gareth Wyn-Williams from the local democracy reporting service. Gareth, good afternoon. The First Minister has outlined already that police bosses on both sides of the border have a role to play. But after the firebreak and covering what remains of the English lockdown can you clarify if penalties will be imposed for non-essential cross border travel? To just visiting a shopping park just over the border for non-essential items and if so what will the level be? Well first and foremost Gareth I should just remind people who may be watching today that for four weeks from today non-essential retail in England will be closed. So that kind of removes any prospect of people travelling across the border into England for non-essential retail. And I also want to say at the outset that we are encouraging people to be as responsible as possible not to look at what we can and cannot do but instead to look at what we should and should not do. We know that in order to disrupt the flow of transmission of coronavirus the best things that we can do and minimise contact with other people to stay as local as we possibly can to stay at home and to ensure that we're doing the obvious when we're out. That we're regularly cleaning our hands that we wear face coverings through personal responsible behaviour and enforcement regime will not need to go to the nth degree of issuing fines. And our approach in Wales has always been one of the what we call the four E's to first of all engage to educate to encourage and then as a last resort to enforce and to issue fixed penalty fines as a last resort. And whilst I'm in no doubt that we'll continue to see on social media examples of poor personal behaviour I believe that the vast majority of people in Wales during the entire pandemic have behaved impeccably impeccably and I hope that people will go on behaving in that way. So obviously with English non essential retail being closed whilst on essential retail will be open so will the Welsh government impose any penalties on people travelling from England into Wales. Well actually there are English regulations regarding the movement of people who live in England anywhere within England and then cross into Wales. So the rules are actually going to be enforced by English police forces. People shouldn't actually in England be moving beyond their local area. They shouldn't be crossing county borders never mind national borders. This is a matter and a responsibility for the UK government in England and for English police forces. And I'll now move on to Rob Taylor at rexham.com. Good morning Rob how are you? Good afternoon Minister. Good afternoon. You've pointed to the Welsh government website for the hospitality guidance FAQ. That guidance page says under who can I go to cafes restaurants and pubs with that you are allowed to go to these venues with people outside your household as long as you maintain physical distancing from them. And later it notes that's outside too. As one owner of a local hospitality business is pondering live right now as he's reading through the guidance to maintain a standard physical distancing inside his venue you'd need a huge table for all four people. Is that how you envisage that rule working? And they also wondered if the new rules meant that they need to take addresses for all customers rather than just the lead group of booking. It's absolutely essential particularly during the four week lockdown period in England that we are able to verify where patrons are coming from and therefore adults who are accessing pubs and cafes and restaurants must be able to show where they are from. And this isn't for some sort of control this is of people. This is about controlling a virus and we know that the transmission of the virus is conducted most effectively when people come into close proximity with one another. And therefore the gathering of information is to ensure that we are dealing with the virus. And then in terms of social distancing of course it's going to be a challenge in many venues. And that's why we've outlined in the FAQs the measures that need to be taken to ensure as best as social distancing regime is possible. Of course two metres is always though the most desirable social distance to maintain. Thank you. And you've mentioned that an ERF4 is probable. Are there any timeframes for that? Will it include further business rates grants and will that only come in if there's further fire breaks or lockdowns? Well Rob, we're currently assessing the options for ERF4. It's not a question I think it's fair to say of if but when given that we face huge challenges in the months to come not just concerning coronavirus but also the end of the transition period. And indeed the third phase of the economic resilience fund those business development grants were designed to help businesses make plans for the future, future proof themselves in light of the end of the transition period, not just in order to deal with coronavirus. And so the fourth phase of the economic resilience fund we will envil it envisage supporting businesses in those dual challenges of overcoming the transition period and whatever happens next. And of course dealing with coronavirus. And I'll finally go to Josh Sirle from South Wales Argos. Afternoon. You highlighted earlier the abuse that's been suffered by Ms Wales staff and obviously we've seen it in the health service and in shops as well at various points throughout the pandemic. How frustrating is it and what can be done to stamp it out do you think? Josh first of all it's not just in the last few months that we've seen increasing levels of abuse intolerance aggressive behaviour and it's against pretty much all people in private sector, the public sector, the third sector, generally in society and particularly on social media. And I'm afraid that in the past few years we've seen levels on social media in particular rise quite terribly. Now perhaps it's got something to do with figures, key figures, people with responsibility encouraging such terrible behaviour. But you know Donald Trump is on his way out now and so too the sort of behaviour that he's encouraged will go with him. And it's absolutely vital that as we look to the future we encourage people to care about one another more, that we create a more decent society, a more respectful society and a more compassionate society. And it's absolutely vital that we all play a part in that role and call out abusive behaviour whenever and wherever we see it. Thank you. And you mentioned incentivising employers to recruit young people and others traditionally hit hardest by recessions in the future. What would or could that involve do you think? Well we're already looking with the £40 million employability and skills fund at how we can ensure that the COVID commitment applies to every single young person that's looking for an opportunity to train, get employment or to remain in education or to get a work experience placement. The COVID commitment is going to be vitally important in avoiding long-term youth unemployment. We've already got proven programmes in Wales as well. For example Jobs Growth Wales that supported almost 23,000 young people in avoiding long-term unemployment. The UK government has announced the Kickstart programme as well and whilst I have some concerns about the criteria, the eligibility criteria of the Kickstart programme it will nonetheless reflect in many ways the way that the Jobs Growth Wales programme has been operating for several years. And that's an incredibly successful programme. What we call the positive outcomes, those young people who stay in employment, move into an apprenticeship have amounted to about 70 plus percent. That's a huge proportion of young people who are successfully transitioning beyond their six month job growth Wales opportunity and we hope that there will be a similar measure and a similar set of targets put in place for Kickstart and that we'll see a similar degree of success for that programme as well. That brings me to the end of the questions. Thanks again for joining us today. Keep well, stay safe.