This is it. This is it. This is going to be the last time we talk about well It's not gonna be cuz you know it's gonna come up in like different videos and questions from subscribing and stuff But this is the last time that we are going to talk about this this Extensively YouTube team keep it clean. What's going on? It's engraving here with another video and in this video Was the two-point conversion attempt? The right call is something that so many of us have gone back and forth with We got our opinions on this side Y'all got your opinions on that side and and we have had so many different conversations some constructive conversations and some not so constructive conversations, but Everybody has their own opinion on this wasn't the right thing to do wasn't the smart thing to do now initially Y'all know how I felt about it initially in the heat of the moment. I hated it Despise it. I thought it was a terrible terrible move Terrible decision and I just I did not like it and then I've been seen a lot of people say oh well if the Ravens would have got it You would have liked it. No, I would have liked the result, but I did not like the decision I did not like it even if they would have got it and that's been my stance all year long Even if there if there's something that I don't like that the Ravens do I let it be known I don't like it even if it works. I still didn't like the decision now I obviously hope everything works out for them, of course, but that doesn't mean I'm gonna like every single decision that they do But with this one in the heat of the moment hated it didn't like it didn't agree with it whatsoever Then after taking some time to really think about it After taking some time to really just really digest it really just let it marinate in my mind for a little while. I Still hated it. So not nothing changed with it on my part and my reasoning for why I didn't like it was because That's it That's it that ends it right there either game either you win. Yeah, or you lose but my my thinking on the whole thing is It's a little deeper than just that whole you win or you lose because It shows and and how ball actually doubled down on it because we always talk about how actions speak louder than words But how ball doubled down on his actions, which spoke just as loud as his words but his words made his actions speak volumes because After the game they at white. Why'd you do it? Why'd you do it? How ball? What was that for? Well, because I didn't feel comfortable going into overtime without Marlon Humphrey I didn't feel comfortable going into overtime with our cornerback our secondary situation in the shape that it was in So what does that say to your players? What does that say to your players? I Didn't feel comfortable since we lost Marlon Humphrey. We didn't have Tay Tay playing I didn't feel comfortable in you Jimmy Smith. I didn't feel comfortable with you Anthony Avid What does that say to the players for the right then and there and what does that say to them for the future too? Because Marlon Humphrey is gonna be out. He's gonna be out probably for the rest of the year It still hasn't been confirmed Officially well at the time that I'm recording this video It hasn't been a confirmed officially if he's gonna be out for the year But what how about if how about says somebody gonna be out for a while they're gonna be out for a long time So we're not expecting Marlo to come back this year But seriously, what does that say to your players? What does that say to your team like man? in in the clutch if we wouldn't went to overtime how about it and trust us Because he already let you know that by being like, alright, let's go for two We go on for two, but then in the presser when he said that he gave them a reminder. I Don't trust you. I don't trust you defense. I don't trust you and That's to the players and that's also to the coach to to wink. I Don't trust you And I know that people gonna be like, oh well the Ravens they gave up what I think 17 points in the fourth quarter alone After holding that team to three points through three quarters Everything just imploded. So you got guys running into each other Ravens running into each other Just oh things started getting ugly and remember the Steelers actually dropped the touchdown pass They actually dropped one so I had actually forgot about that when I was thinking about the game Did the post game thoughts did the recap all that I had actually forgot about that play But it just shows that he didn't trust him So when you don't have big trust for your players players remember that kind of stuff and When you say that to you say it publicly, I didn't trust y'all. I didn't feel I didn't feel comfortable going into over to they remember that and The players everything starts from the top starts with the coach So the confidence that he gives those players it makes such a big difference. It's not the end all be all But it makes such a big difference Now I know people been saying hey you play to win you play to win. You can't play scared Ravens were playing to win I wouldn't expect anything different from the Ravens than to go for the two. I could understand that Ravens have been a very very aggressive team very very aggressive team Now they've been sometimes when we felt like I don't think they should do that They've been other times where we felt like oh, yeah, they should do that and sometimes in those situations They go for it and we like oh, yeah, let's go come on Ravens They go for they going for it and then there've been other times when it's been like no no Go for but they don't go for it So it just all depends now something else that I've been seeing a lot of people.  It's the same thing. No, it's not it's not and With the chiefs game that was a call y'all can go back and watch the video too.   If they going for it I'm with it. I'm with it They going for it. I like that one now Completely different scenario though completely different scenario Have they not gotten it? The game is not over It's not over The Ravens were up They were up in the Steelers game the Ravens were not up They could have kicked the extra point to tie and head to overtime But they were not up in the Steelers game They were down and they went for two and again, this is all or nothing in the chiefs game It was not all or nothing. It wasn't now the chief they were the Ravens were on their own 42 yard line So the chiefs if they wouldn't have moved the ball at all Then that would have been a 60 yard field goal if the Ravens wouldn't have gotten it and the chiefs didn't move the ball at all It would have been a 60 yard field goal So they the chiefs they would have had to Obviously get the ball and they would have got it because the Ravens wouldn't have converted and then they would have to Move the ball just a little bit not too much. They would have to move the ball just a little bit and To kick a game-winning field goal so It's not all or nothing Because you can if you don't convert it It's like that puts a lot of pressure on your defense Especially against a Patrick Mahomes and that chiefs offense who had got you throughout the game There were some times where you stopped them too, but that's such a powerful offense And they just needed a couple yards But still they still needed those couple of yards in order to get in game-winning field goal position And then they would have had to kick the game-winning field goal and that kick is pretty good So would he have made it probably but we'll never know But the situations were completely different And again if Ravens don't convert on that fourth down against the chiefs The game is not automatically over. It's not automatically finished. It's not automatically done But if they don't convert against the Steelers That's it That's a wrap Game is finished Why they even go for that on-side kick. I mean you you already gave the game away when you decided you wanted to go for two now You got the people who said again play to win and I respect everybody's opinion I don't agree with it, but that doesn't mean that I don't respect your opinion So please I hope there's no cuz I I see some people just because I feel a certain way about it I see some people that they they try to make the whole thing disrespectful and it's really not People are allowed to have different opinions on stuff. They love to have different opinions on stuff Nobody has to resort to name-calling. Nobody has to resort to be resort to being disrespectful Nobody has to resort to any of that stuff. It's really not that serious. I Got my opinion. You got your opinion other people got their opinion. It's okay if we don't all agree. It's okay It's alright because some people oh, man No, it's not that serious, but anyway With people some people saying go and go for it Again play to win. Okay And we begin we know like we talked about earlier the Ravens are very very aggressive they been this way really since 2019 2019 that's when we start seeing like especially we all know the infamous the Seahawks game We know when when Lamar goes like that Baby, let's get it. I ain't see him do that in the Steelers game last night But anyway with the bar goes like that then it's okay. All right, cool Um and Yeah, the defense they again 17 points one quarter to the Steelers who you had been doing so good again Something else that I've been seeing people say oh man There's no guarantee that our offense would have drove down the field and got a touchdown And hey, who know we we might not have even stopped the Steelers We'll never know Because they weren't even given a chance to Because the head coach Did not trust him Didn't trust him Didn't even give them an opportunity To to go to overtime didn't even give them a shot Nothing Say, you know what? No, I'm not doing it. All right. Let's go all or nothing now one thing. I will say I Think something that Excuse me not that it makes it right but it makes it a Little less risky in the grand scheme of things And my guy JT he originally pointed it out to me That he said he thinks if the Bengals were the one yesterday Then how ball would have never went for it if the Bengals were the one But they lost so it was almost like again still doesn't excuse it for me at all But it was almost like Hardball was playing with house money It's playing with house money because if he and the Ravens lose then They drop they they go to eight and four and now they tied with like 20 other AFC teams who are like eight and four right now now before the recording or during the recording of this video The bills play the Patriots tonight The Patriots are currently eight and four The bills, I don't even know what their record is But the Patriots right now the number one seed in the AFC Senate eight and four they have an opportunity against the bills to go to nine and four and just and really be the number one seed in AFC, so we'll see what happens and then I know they've been some Ravens fans. They're like, oh man Because as a fan What a lot of people do they try to comfort themselves when stuff is rough So they'll be like, oh, you know what we don't want we don't want number one seed anyway We remember the last times we had the number one seed and we ain't do so good We don't want number one seed anyway. Remember 2019. We had number one seed. They remember with Steve McNair. I think it was 2006 we had number one seed look what happened both times So oh to AFC South teams to to the Titans and the Colts. We'll shout out to that. But anyway, I Disagree with that and again, I just I don't in my opinion. I don't think that just because the bingos lost I still don't think it was a smart call because in my opinion you should Try try to Get a firm hold try to give yourself some leeway some space in order to hold it down Because say for instance, they could have been at nine and three right now I mean, who knows how over time with when they could have lost an overtime They could have won it over time though, but again, it's something that we'll never know but if they would have won they could be sitting at nine and three right now and Even so regardless I love and again, this is not no more Ravens football when this happens because that's why again 2019 was fake. It was a dream. It was not a real season But it's it's a beautiful thing When no matter what anybody else does It doesn't impact you No matter what this team does no matter if this team wins or loses no matter if this team loses or ties No matter if no matter what happens You're not impacted because you took care of your own business.  They don't put themselves in a position where they they can take care of their own business A lot of times they got to rely on this they got to rely on that they got it and it's football So it happens. It's NFL. So it happens, but still but anyway, so Yeah, man, that's that's that's my thoughts on it Hope for anybody that was confused. I don't think anybody really was confused on my thoughts at all But hope this clears it up cuz I know I know there been some people What about that cheese came didn't party what about them cheese what about when we went for it against the cheese I Hope that that cleared up how I feel about going for it against the chiefs because again, like I said, I liked it I like the call against the chiefs Again, you can go rewatch the video. I like you can go rewatch the live stream from that game but um Yeah, so we know Harbaugh. He's very very gutsy coach when it comes to certain stuff When it comes to certain stuff, he's very gutsy When it comes to other stuff like hiring guys It's not very gutsy with that. He goes for the more comfortable moves But hold another conversation for a whole another day team keep it clean. I appreciate y'all love y'all we out


It's about time to get started with our talks again. And sorry about the display. I was trying to hide the Windows taskbar, but I haven't used Windows for so many years that I don't know how to do it anymore. I can't make it go away. So that bottom strip of the screen seems to be blocked. So for those of you whom I'm meeting for the first time, I'm Li Ping Long. I'm an assistant professor. I'm at UC Davis and one of the academic collaborators in this open force field initiative. And today I would like to tell you about the strategy that we use to optimize the parameters in our first release of the optimized force field. And before I begin, I want to say that this was really made possible with effort and assistance from everyone in the collaboration, but in particular, the three individuals that I'm showing on the screen here. So you don't chill from my group, Simon and Ruth Roy, who is a post-doctoral fellow supported by XLPIE and is in Don Kedera's lab. And Daniel Smith, a software scientist with Mulsey, who not only have really gone above and beyond in terms of the efforts they contributed, but they also came up with many original and very innovative ideas that I think really made the difference between this working and not working. So without any further ado, we can start. Some of this will partially overlap with what David gave in his introductory talk. He has that kind of laid the foundation for everything that we're going to be talking about in the rest of the day. So basically, as of this week, our first major round of parameter optimization is complete. That's not to say we're not going to do any more optimization and corrections, but we've now reached a point where we can start doing some really extensive testing and benchmarking and getting community feedback from what we're doing. So the current version of the optimized force field available online is we're going to call that our first release candidate. The previous rounds of optimized results are also online. We're just not encouraging that you use the early ones. Use this. There's a numerical versioning scheme that Jeff referred to. So x is the major release, y is like a minor release, and z is a bug fix release. And then we're also giving these releases code names. And one reason why we're calling the first of the release partially is that we're hoping we can make the four major releases, and then we could have a partially sage, rosemary, and pine. Yeah. OK, so let me summarize the optimized parameters of the force field and the data that went into optimization kind of added claims. So first, which parameters were optimized? We looked at bond stretching and angle bending equilibrium parameters and force constants. The number of parameters is listed up there. We also looked at barrier heights in the torsion. So to be clear, we did not optimize the phases in the torsions. And we did not add any new barriers that were not already there, which means that in the starting force field, if it was one-fold, then it stayed one-fold. We didn't add any two-fold or three-fold terms to a two-torsion term that was originally one-fold. There's also a total of 30 Leonard Jones sigma and epsilon parameters, so 15 sigma and 15 epsilon's that were optimized for a total of 530. So one of the, I guess, one of the arguments that we made for one of the advantages of this spin-off format from very early on is that this really gives you a very compressed representation of a small molecule force field in that the number of independent parameters is a lot smaller compared to the indirect chemical perception that uses atom types. Yeah. Like, oh, you mean how many atom types do we have in here? No atom types. There are Leonard Jones types, which, I guess, serve some of the same purposes as atom types, but they're not used to the sign of London Grand Prix. All right. Yes. In the new optimization system, do you optimize everything at once? I don't know about the zone. It's not for us. It's not for me. There are people who don't even know who you are. Yeah. In the protocol for optimization, do you optimize everything at the same time? For example, if Leonard Jones are optimized separately, then you'd have 30 parameters and roughly 60 observables. That's an important question. The answer is coming up. Short answer. We did iterate back and forth. We can bond it and non-bond it just once. This time we did not fully co-optimize them just because we ran out of time, so again, at a glance, what data did we use to prioritize the force field? We used both data from initial calculations as well as experimental data, and to generate and curate this data, there was a lot of effort that went into this, so you don't primarily did the QM data generation working closely with Daniel Smith who created and maintains the QCR cut ecosystem, and Simon was carried out the experimental data curation by pulling the information out of the thermal ML archive. So the valence parameters are informed by ab initio optimized geometries and calculated vibrational frequencies. There's a total of about... There's almost 1,800 optimized structures and 900 sets of frequencies. And then the torsion parameters are informed by these torsion drives. These are basically energy versus torsion angle profiles of constrained optimized QM geometries. Everybody here is more or less familiar with these. And then for Leonard Jones, we're going to look at the density and heat vaporization of molecular liquids. This is sort of just taking the historical cue of what was done to optimize the OPLS parameters back in the day, and we have a total of 39 liquid densities of vaporization for use right now. Okay, so... And then just at a glance, again, how are the parameters optimized? First, we have to describe the starting point. So we started from Svernoff 99 Frost, which were the parameters that Christopher Bailey adopted from... They basically form maximal, you know, closeness to amber 99 and parmafrost. And then... And the parameters are optimized by this regularized nonlinear, at least squares procedure which is implemented into the force balance software developed in my group. And the parameters were optimized in three major stages. This answers Arnie's question that we first fitted all of the valence and torsion parameters through the QM calculation, then we froze those parameters and then Simon optimized the Leonard Jones parameters to reproduce the thermodynamic properties, and then we froze those parameters and then we re-optimized the bonded parameters again. And then that's where we said that we were going to use the nonlinear release candidate. And then here is the current location of the optimized parameters, the fitting data and optimization output. We actually forked it over from my group repository to the more official force field repository, so this link needs to be updated now. So the force field is provided in the OFFX in all format. You can use it for simulations right away. And this repository includes really detailed release notes for each parameterization, which kind of shows our thought processes beginning to the point where we are now. And then the downloadable files includes not only the parameters, but a lot of really detailed information about the optimization. So how well does our current parameter set perform for each single torsion, each single optimized geometry, each parameter, you can find all of that information in there. Okay. So this is just a version of our software component and data flow diagram, and the parts in green are what I'm going to be talking about. So the parameter optimizer is going to take information and take quantum chemical information from the QCR type. It's also going to incorporate experimental properties and the differences between simulated properties relying on Simon's property estimator toolkit to do that. And then after the optimization we end up with an optimized force field and eventually we get to the new release that we have to take. So at some point along our thought process we had to decide on a QM level of theory. And then here we're mainly going to be talking about QM levels of theory for conformational energies because arguably the torsion drives are the most important QM calculations that we are doing in this step. And an important component of the torsion drive, not the only component, are relative conformational energies. And there are a few conformational energy benchmarks in the literature. There actually aren't that many. But here are two that we decided we're done quite carefully where they compared conformational energies from various DFT functionals. They compared it to high level couple cluster reference. And there was kind of a surprising result that there are, that there exist small basis sets, so double zeta basis set published in the 90s that give you very close accuracy and conformational energy compared to a much larger like triple zeta basis set that all it's published much later. And we're going to be using a pretty well established global hybrid density functional and P3LIP with with Gremna's D3 correction. And then for conformational energies this is we're going to, we basically decided this was sufficient for the generation of our data set. And in keeping with precedent we are carrying out these calculations by gas phase. Although I think it's a very interesting and important discussion whether we want to do future calculations with implicit solar. So which molecules do we use? David alluded to this. So we started with 468 small molecules provided by Roche and Xavier Lucas our contact at Roche so really thankful for those. And then from these molecules we identified 820 rotatable bonds involving four heavy atoms that are not in rings. So those are like the most obvious candidates for origin drives. And then because we're doing these in the gas phase we don't really want our fitting to be contaminated by the formation of strong intramolecular non-bonded interactions such as hydrogen bonds. So we filtered out the origin drives where there were strong intramolecular hydrogen bonds and that and then we ended up with 669. And then there was another set of molecules. The coverage set. I didn't know as much about this set so I don't have pictures of those molecules in this talk but David did. And this coverage set basically ensures almost full coverage of the spin-off parameters and it leads to 417 more origin drives. I think when we fully assess the coverage of the parameters we got 481 out of 500 parameters that were covered by the coverage set. And then we performed energy minimizations of these to get local minima. There was actually a conformer generation step in here although I'm not sure exactly what conformer generation procedure was used. So even though we don't have 1,785 molecules that's how many local minima we have. And then we are going to tweak the actual parameters so that our minima structures are as close as possible to the local minima. That's actually precisely what Jeff did in his demo. So that is one of the things that we're doing here. And then at the lowest energy minimum we're going to do the frequency calculations and we're going to match the vibrational frequencies as well. So I'll just briefly plug the QC archive project that Daniel is going to go into a lot more detail. This is basically a quantum chemistry computation environment where it will basically organize all of your calculations and also figure out where are the cloud resources to run your calculations. And it's really great for organizing large data sets such as the ones that we need for setting our force field parameters. And then so the calculations are going to be done on this ecosystem. So QC archive is going to be running our calculation. And so what QC archive actually executes at kind of a high level is that it calls this portion drive method. And portion drive is a method that does this recursive wavefront propagation of these constrained energy optimization. The reason why we are doing this is that you know that if you do a sequence of constrained energy minimizations you can get hysteresis where you might fall on to kind of a different branch of the potential energy surface where you have reorganization of your orthogonal degrees of freedom. And the thinking was that if you ever run into you know if you ever cross between these branches of the potential energy surface you might be able to step back and then do some constrained energy minimizations in the other direction and end up with some lower energy geometries. So this was implemented in this recursive fashion and that's essentially what portion drive is. And then because we need these constrained energy minimizations portion drive is going to then is then going to call a software package called geometric or geometry optimization. So every quantum chemistry package has an internal geometry optimizer. Geometric is a little bit different. It's an external geometry optimizer that basically calls any code you want for the energies and gradients and it contains the internal coordinate system for the geometry optimization. We found who were pleasantly surprised that it's pretty robust in these constrained optimizations because QC archive has run more than 200,000 of these and we haven't had a single convergence error. And QC archive is also going to implement other types of optimizations that we need such as a unconstrained geometry optimization and Hessian calculations which are going to give us our bond and angle force constants and then once these calculations are finished on QC archive it's only a matter of some scripting to download all of the calculations and convert them into a format that force balance can read. And now let's talk about the selection of experimental data. This is what Simon did. I just took all of his smile strings and pasted it into chem drawn. This is how I made this figure. So these are the molecules that had the thermodynamic property data that we identified from thermal ML. So the black ones they have both density and heat vaporization. The red ones have density only and the blue ones have heat vaporization only. To point out that thermal ML only covers data that's published in the last 10 years. So a lot of our data is actually not in there. But we think this problem will become less serious when we move to thermodynamic properties of mixtures where thermal ML really has a very copious data on this case. For now we're going to focus on small compounds with good parameter coverage and our selected set of molecules covers 15 out of 35 non bonded types. And even though this doesn't seem like too much it's actually quite a bit difficult because out of the ones that we don't cover a lot of them are things like ions or an HCL HVR and things like this. So the 15 out of 35 types that we're optimizing I think it actually covers a fairly good swap of chemical spaces. And then to do this optimization we use this force balance tool and because I've given these slides before maybe I'll go through this a little bit a little bit more quickly this is basically a Python toolkit that carries out this nonlinear optimization of the parameters for you. It handles the construction of the objective function that represents the amount of disagreement between your force field predictions and the reference data and it automates the execution of the molecular mechanics code to you know to calculate your energies, your minimize geometries or to run your simulations. Well now it calls property estimate or two months and then and then one thing that one feature of force balance is that is that it can is that it can handle I guess a force field parameters that will often obey like relationships such as such as you know you might you might want some parameters to sum up to zero or you might want other parameters to not change sign just because they represent physical quantities they can't just be anything so force balance has influence the mapping between the unconstrained optimization variables and the physical force field parameters and so and so because there is this mapping you can basically you can basically make the optimization obey any kind of constraint you want in your parameter space so because time is limited I'm not going to do this in too much detail but if you want to learn about basically how the objective function is constructed I played it out pretty carefully okay so what did we do that was new in the past few months so in order to enable this parameter optimization we had to implement new terms in the objective function so the optimized geometry target is new and the way it works is that it will match the molecular mechanics optimized structure to the QM optimized structure and in order to do this matching it first decomposes the structure into the internal coordinates the objective function is calculated from the sum of squared differences in the internal coordinates in particular we focus on bonds angles and in proper torsions because for the torsion degrees of freedom that's what the torsions are for and then and then we have a new torsion profile target this new target was it really it actually takes the what we were doing before is that we were fitting MM single point energies to these QM torsion energy profiles but Christopher Bailey pointed out during one of our meetings that when you actually run a simulation the molecular mechanics structure will largely relax and that will and then that will give you in practice a very different profile than that single point profile that you fitted so this new torsion profile target is going to carry out a restrained molecular mechanics minimization prior to comparing the MM energies to the QM energies and that's how we are going to fit all of our all of our torsion and in the third part there was an existing vibrational frequency target but we weren't able to calculate the frequencies in open MM before but this is implemented now so so you don't know why basically we divided these tasks among three of us and now we can do this yes the torsion atoms are frozen yeah like it is in principle possible to use a package like geometric and actually freeze the torsion angle and relax everything else but that optimization is much more expensive and we're doing millions of these optimizations in every cycle of the parameter optimization so there is an approximate component to this freezing of the torsion angle alright and then as for the thermodynamic properties we decided to use the property estimator toolkit that Simon developed he's going to tell you more about that and because and so this is a toolkit for simulating physical properties and we basically use that as a drop in replacement for the for the codes that were native to force balance for calculating properties and the advantage is that this is going to give us a platform for improved performance and improved methods in the future because there's lots of innovative statistical mechanical methods to estimate these properties more rapidly as we go towards future releases so you don't get Simon work together to create this force balance and property estimator interface for force balance asks property estimator for the properties and also asks for the the gradients of the properties with respect to the parameters property estimator hands these back and the force balance will build the objective function and its associated gradients and then run the optimization that way and so the basic way of the basic workflow of using force balance is that you first set the parameters that you want to optimize in the force field file you set up your target folders that contain the data that you want the force to be fitted to and then you create this input file that specifies your calculation settings and then you run and wait for the results and then and so now we can start talking a little bit about the results so I said that the optimization was run in three main stages and here's the convergence behavior of the three stages so in the first stage we are fitting to only 2M properties and you can see that most of the decrease in the objective function happens in the first iteration and by the fifth iteration things are only changing by one or two percent so our convergence criteria are met by the 14th iteration or so and that's when we went to the second stage and in the second stage because you are calculating thermodynamic properties there's some amount of statistical noise that means the objective function can't convert as precisely as when you were fitting to the QM properties and so in the second stage you see things go up and down a bit and you basically have to terminate that manually because it's hard to define the perfect convergence criteria for that and then after we freeze the Leonard Jones parameters from here we fit to the QM properties again and that gives us the blue points here and we end up with an objective function that is just very slightly higher than the objective function that we got from stage one okay and so here is a graph that describes the quality of fit for the torsion profile so let me explain a little bit what this graph really means so here on the x-axis each point on the x-axis is one torsion profile and the gray curve is the starting value of the objective function the red curve is the optimized value of the objective function and I've sorted them in decreasing order of the optimized objective function the red curve is generally lower than the gray curve which is expected because we're optimizing the objective function but sometimes the gray curve is below the red curve which means that this optimization does not uniformly improve every single torsion value some of them like most of them get better but some of them get worse and furthermore the starting value of the objective function is not a very good predictor of the final value of the objective function and in fact I think there's probably a lot of fine details going on here and why certain torsions are easier to fit and others are harder if we take a closer look at individual torsion profiles you can see that some of them are fitted very well on the left the molecule on the left whereas the molecule on the right is not quite looking as good sometimes this might have to do with a particular torsion type which is applied to multiple molecules but the torsion profile for these multiple molecules are very different so you might need to add an extra parameter type and so for the cases that are not looking as optimal those are just things that will continue to study future as for, yes are you guys doing any error? is there sorry I'm losing my voice right now are you guys doing any train test splits for these torsional profiles? we're not doing train test splits right now but I guess that was we were I guess that's kind of what the I guess that's kind of what the validation is for and maybe one reason why we're not doing the splits right now is because is because our set of molecules does not cover our parameters that many times for example if our molecules covered our parameters a hundred times then I'd be more comfortable doing the tests and I would also say that we have lots of additional calculations that we haven't used for fitting yet that we're going to be testing on it seems to me you're doing yourself a bit of a disservice because the scale on the right one is larger than the left one so the errors aren't as bad as they look but I'm curious it seems that the optimization the fit got worse on the right I think I think it got slightly worse how could that happen well it could happen if the same torsion type is actually assigned to two different molecules what optimization procedure did you use oh I trust radius Newton-Raphson it's a trust radius Newton-Raphson thanks I haven't looked at this much so maybe I'm missing something but there's an arbitrary vertical offset that one could apply so presumably the most dominant state would be the energy global minimum if you align those one might get a different impression what's the metric of because it looks like the peaks are aligned or those two subsidiary peaks almost yeah that's totally true so you have to make a choice and how do you align things and we align all of the curves to the lowest energy structure in the QM and the reason why we did that is that if you end up with a if you end up with an MM curve that has a different lowest energy structure compared to in the QM then it will show up as having a negative energy on that on that y-axis and that is an indicator that when you run the simulation you could end up with an incorrect equilibrium sort of quarterly is that you've got them aligned on that QM energy minimum but it's the MM one is shifted off to the right so it's almost as though if you allow a little bit of phase shifting or something you know slop then suddenly it might all come together better and might even optimize better yeah that's so that's true I mean the way we've aligned things right now is also kind of the way the optimizer sees it so if in this alignment MM is lower than QM anywhere and the QM energy is low then it receives basically the maximum weight but yeah you're right if the green curve were shifted upward then we would see that basically the difference between the green and the blue is that the minima seems to be shifted inward by about right which might be preferable to this anyway yeah yeah yeah I guess that's true the way of aligning these curves is definitely not like said and done there might be different ways to do it but this way of using the lowest energy structure in the QM is how I've done it for I guess at least a couple of years but I haven't but there could be different ways to do it so I think that for the purposes for the purpose of an MD simulation you actually care about the heights of the barriers relative to the lowest states right so the optimized oh wait never mind I'm reading it wrong so you actually flipped sorry that's actually going to be quite bad because the minima actually changed to a different phase seems yeah yeah so the barriers actually got quite higher I just misread the plot I'm sorry yeah I think that we just have like a few hundred proportion profiles some of them get better some of them get worse you can always I could pick maybe like a hundred plots that look like the one on the left I could also pick maybe ten that look like the one on the right and then the ones on the right are always going to make that kind of uncomfortable right but I think every time the optimization actually makes an individual you know makes an individual profile worse that probably just means that there that there might be like a certain periodicity that we're not including in the parameter type or that one parameter type might need to be exploited too and I know we have discussed this point before but if we could since it's not possible to do PMFs with a quantum wavefunk with a quantum description a quantum chemistry description of the molecule it's too expensive it would be nice to have a set of charges that you felt reflected the gas phase so that you could be fitting the torsion profiles to a gas phase and therefore mimic more what the quantum chemistry calculations are we looked at this a little bit and determined some solution phase charges and then through quantum chemistry calculations and then went back and from the gas phase determined charges that were used in the fitting of the torsion profiles so that's just a comment I'm still not really happy with that I'd really like to do PMFs with the quantum chemistry but maybe it's something to think about yeah, so the I pull Q system is definitely like definitely has that physical like this physically grounded idea that in the gas phase your charges are going to be different compared to what you actually run the simulation another possibility I've been pulling around you're just thinking about is whether it might be possible to do both the QM and MN calculations with a solvent model and I think some people have started to do this yes, and so I'm going to make one more comment I don't think we should rely on an implicit solvent model for water water hydrogen bonds right and I'm quite I'm okay with using it for organic solvents benzene, dichloromethane things like that but I am very concerned about using it for water I am still a little bit confused on the right hand side plot what are you aligning for the relative energies I really don't get that sorry here this is the lowest energy structure in the QM and so every curve has that energy subtracted from each of the points so that's where all of the free curves are crossing when it's a yeah right all three curves you subtract the energy of the lowest energy structure in the QM is that really a relative energy well I guess I guess the way I I guess one way I interpreted is this if you were if you could do sampling in the QM you're probably going to get an equilibrium distribution that's centered around minus 75 degrees and maybe like plus 75 degrees whereas if you do the sampling of the MM it might actually predict your parts of your equilibrium distribution to be around negative 165 degrees and and I think that when we look at force field errors the zeroth order error is the equilibrium distribution and then only after we get that right should we pay a lot of attention to getting carries so but this is just really off the cuff and we're totally wrong but another way of comparing would be to get it like a Jensen-Shannon divergence between the probability density functions that correspond to these so that would allow for some lateral shift and in some sense it would give you what you really want which is the distribution yeah yeah yeah that's I haven't thought about that before neither I think that I think that has a pretty good chance of working yeah like I guess when it comes to relative probabilities of structures I find that when you get to like maybe five or six kT but well like I might it might be needed to use an elevated temperature but I think that sounds good yeah so I guess maybe is it okay to keep going I know we're a little over let's see have torsion profiles optimized geometries vibrational frequencies thermodynamic properties changes in parameters so sure so the optimized geometries and vibrational frequencies we can go over these kind of quickly so here again is the plot that shows you that here for the vast majority of cases fitting to the optimized geometries really does improve the objective function and then here is the more detailed analysis of exactly what happens so here let me explain how to read these plots the scatter plots that you see there you see an orange one and a blue one these are these are mm minimized internal these are mm minimized like bond lengths versus qm minimized bond lengths for the initial parameters in orange and the optimized parameters in blue if the force field was perfectly accurate then everything would be on the dotted line and because the force field only has one equilibrium parameter because we're grouping by bond type that's represented by the vertical line here so on the left panel you can see that the original equilibrium bond length parameter is in orange and the new equilibrium bond length parameter is a lot larger and then after the optimization you can see that the points start to cluster a lot closer to the diagonal line which means that this is a positive result but you can also see that by optimizing the valence parameters we are not really able to control the distribution in the energy minimized bond lengths of the same bond type because we don't see these we don't see these actually collapsing to the diagonal line it's more like the cluster moves over to the diagonal line and then there are also cases where the spread in the qm optimized bond lengths is a lot larger meaning and that's when our optimization of the valence parameters isn't able to improve things by all that much those are cases where we might want to rely on maybe automatically identifying new bond types or maybe using bond orders to interpolate between bond types that's some really promising stuff and here you can see an example of an angle type that was assigned to several angles and molecules where some of the qm and mm minimized angles are around 130 but other ones are around 110 or 115 so this is kind of an example where especially when it comes to the case of angles there can be a lot of there can actually be a lot of frustration in the angle terms of the minimized structure in the sense that the minimized value of the angle might actually be pretty far from the equilibrium angle parameter and that's definitely what some people call vibrational frequencies I think we can go through this a little bit more quickly here you can see the objective function decreases even more dramatically and moreover the initial value of the objective function seems to not vary by too much across the different molecules and if you look at the performance in the computed versus the mm versus qm vibrational modes you can see that most of the error in the objective function comes from a few outliers in the high like 1000 to 1000 range and after optimizing the valence parameters things fall a lot closer to the diagonal line so we think we're doing okay for the vibrational frequencies I should mention that we still want to move to internal coordinate Hessians and that just didn't quite make the cut this year and we're going to do that soon yeah I think there should be OH stretches yeah you mean like so OH stretch would be up here and I think some of those improved but maybe the biggest improvement is this yeah I I don't know exactly what that is yeah it's could be an angle and when I was putting this plot together I didn't exactly have the machinery to enter maybe Trevor can help me with that later alright so and so thermodynamic properties this is this perhaps the most challenging one because to estimate the thermodynamic property you need to run an entire simulation right so here so here we turn to the property estimation toolkit to run the simulations and give us the estimated properties as well as the gradients and on the left is the densities on the right is heat of vaporization and yellow is pre-optimization and blue is post optimization okay so this when you see the decrease in the objective function you know things you know things are getting better but but you don't really know you know how much more accurate things are getting and this and this plot will you know kind of give you a sense for that um so where was the original force field not performing as well um for example these points here like this very dense liquid experimentally around 2500 here it predicts it to be up to be about 1900 that's this uh um di-bromome thing okay and so and so the optimization will uh will correct the parameters for bromine basically in order to bring the density closer to experiment um as for the heats of vaporization you also see that um you also see that there are generally improvements but there is kind of an outlier on the on the high side here where even after optimization of the force field we are getting the heat of vaporization to be too high and this turns out to be um to be not only a pretty polar molecule but also a carboxylic acid um and so um and so um it might be possible that there could be a that there could be some sampling issues of that carboxylic acid in the gas phase because that flipping of that di-usual angle is just just so rare okay so that's a so that's the basic performance for thermodynamic properties as for um changes in parameters you can see that you can see that there's some variation depending on the parameter type and that um and and that's uh and and sometimes that's just a function of you know certain parameters just being much more well determined like a bond line um and other times you see we see a lot more larger variations in the angle force constant um that could be partially due to the relatively large prior width or you know relatively weak regularization that we said um but um but also there might be larger like intrinsic uncertainties in these parameters when they were when they were initially yes um here are the changes in the parameters for the van der Waals that David already showed you as well as the as well as the um the proper torsion parameters the proper torsion parameters are the ones that change the most but the larger changes are on the order of three k calc remords okay so this uh brings me close to the end um so um so in terms of outlook the force field is ready for benchmarking and testing really looking forward to hearing about your results because um because this is just a starting point right we would like to use this as a good starting point to do better and better um and um in terms of some near-term development goals there are some obvious things that we'd like to do um we'd like to use these internal coordinate sessions that I said we would do in January we haven't done them yet um and then um and for torsion drives the Roche set included a lot of flexible rings that we didn't include that didn't really make it into this data set so this requires a torsion drive with an energy upper limit which is implemented now so we can so we can do these um we're also interested in co-optimization of Lenard Jones and the bonded um parameters to see if we can do even better in terms of our qualities of fit um and you know for for our longer term goals there's many long-term goals to to discuss so this is not at all an inclusive list but um um but for example there might be valence degrees of freedom like um like say certain angles that have very large deformations that need to be explicitly scanned um there's a study that we started that is currently ongoing we're interested in improved charge models um um one one potential improved charge model is the REST 2 method that Michael Schauperl has developed and then um I'm also very interested in thermodynamic properties of mixtures in our training data set we think that might be a lot better than using heats of vaporization because we're never really simulating things that are purely in the gas space um and then um and so and so with that I did a I did attempt to list um um all of the um all of the folks who uh who contributed to um you know the um the current work as uh as well as as well as ongoing work um but um but it's also very likely that I um better left somebody out of this list you know it's been great um I'm working with everyone so far um and I'm interested in hearing you just so I'm the next couple of years trying to figure out what's going on fine with me um um um um um um um um


What's up guys we're back with another worth it or not series. This is episode 2 We're gonna be checking out your posts on reddit to figure out if what you bought if what you graded if what you're gonna Open is worth it or it's not so let's get right into it We do have a quick giveaway just like this video be subscribed and you can win this big shield gardener from duelist league Let's go ahead and hop into your posts So first of all we are on r slash works in 34 which is a subreddit for you guys to post and have me Review your cards or what you want to grade or what you bought etc. Just anything you want to post on there I will attempt to review it if there's a ton of posts. I might not get to everything But I'll try to get to a lot of them I'm gonna go a little faster on them today because I did take like a few minutes per post last time which made it so I did a lot less so I'm gonna try and get through a lot more this time. So go check out the reddit Let's check it out. What do we have here first off? We have a worth it or not I won this pre graded dark magician sd. Why e 0 0 5 the e stands for euros that means a it's a European copy for 18 I believe that's pounds or 25 dollars and was wondering if that was worth it I'm new to collecting bonus promo sensor serpent wc4 e 0 0 2 so you got a promo as well. So I don't know og grading I don't really know the values yet But if you only paid $25 for a sd.  Honestly, you probably can't go too wrong with that the being graded an 8 by a Sort of a newer company is usually not gonna be worth a ton of money But because this is a pretty solid card and you got an extra promo. I mean, it's $25. I'd say it's worth it We have a worth it or not pulled it years ago. It's been sitting in a top loader since Okay, so we have a ghost rare. This is one of my favorite cards This is unlimited though. So keep that in mind also one thing we have to consider for this week is PSA did lower their Express price to $150. So now we're not looking at $200 difference. We're looking at 150 grade Which is actually a pretty big deal. I mean a lot of cards are now worth that that warrant at $200 So if we check out TCG player for the price of an unlimited, it looks to be a near-mint ghost rare We have $80 is the lowest available. So it looks like you could buy one for $80 So you're looking at $80 card. You're gonna pay $150 to grade it So do you think it could grade a 9 or 10 and would it be worth at least $230 as a PSA 9? So if we look on eBay sold there absolutely nothing in terms of graded ghost res I checked everything then if you look at the listings you have one PSA 7 for 250 But it has not sold so that price really doesn't mean anything So it's a hundred percent a guess on this one as to if it's worth it or not So because it's an $80 card because it costs $150. I would initially be like probably not The only thing you have to consider is this is a ghost rare and ghost res are extremely collectible A lot of people like to collect slabbed ghost res So if you think it could potentially get a 10 to me It looked like it was probably a 9 there was a couple of scratches on it unlimited nines not really high demand So for me, I would personally wait for a lower rate like a bulk rate or maybe even a regular rate I could see why you would want to go express but for me I'm gonna say not worth it worth or not a couple of first-edition tuned chaos booster boxes seem to be rising in price But is it worth opening these boxes have gone up a ton? And I think that they will continue to go up as time goes on if they're around like $300 right now They were initially for you know $50 on release, but very quickly went up for the first edition It was a pretty limited run So these are actually really nice boxes to hold on to because they made a limited first-edition run because of all the COVID issues and everything they couldn't print a very large run like they usually would So there's just not a lot of these boxes that are gonna be around in a couple of years So personally I would say hold on to them You can pull some really awesome cards that are worth a ton of money like blacklist or soldier first-edition collector rare Stardust dragon, you know all stuff like that the a tune blacklist or soldier everything like that is really cool But I would say if it's worth it or not to open I would say it is not worth it compared to what you can get for keeping them still worth it or not first-edition Ghostraw I pulled from one booster box Actually, I pulled another one a few days later when I bought three loose packs the other one has the ding on The corner is probably not worth it. Okay. Initially. I'm checking this out. This card has a lot of print lines I'm just gonna say not worth it right now. It's not worth it. This card is extremely hard to grade PSA has only graded one rage of raw ghost rare So if there's any sort of print lines, it's getting a nine at best and at nine. I think technically is a high price But I think that you'd be better off waiting if we're looking at the numbers though I think the PSA nights it might actually make your money back But honestly, I think this one we get an eight So I think your worst case scenarios an eight or a seven personally for this one I would say hold on to it maybe graded when the lower services come back worth it or not first-edition German cyber dragon I bought for 120 euro. No, is this your oh, yeah, this one's your 120 euro a few months ago. So I I don't know if he's asking if it's great it like worth grading or if it was worth the price So we're just gonna go with the price here 120 euro, which is I think maybe a hundred fifty dollars maybe a little bit less than I think it's 1.17 to a USD So it'd be a little bit less than 150 It looks pretty clean from these pictures So I would say it's definitely worth the price for sure that you bought it for and then in terms of Grading I see the sinnering is a little bit off. It's a little bit skinny up here compared to down here And also there is edge where so I think this would get maybe an eight So I would probably not grade it for 150 out what an eight is not worth the hundred fifty dollar price tag worth it or not I have a first-edition seal 2002 LLB blister What should I do with it open the blister and weigh the pack give me options your last option open in way The pack is basically not an option if you have seen my videos glossy packs do not weigh accurately I've had some that have weighed accurately and some that have not it's in the air So weighing it does you really know good because you have no confidence and whether it worked or not And also it's only one pack and a lot of people don't know this but you need to have the entire booster box To actually weigh accurately people think you can just weigh one pack and compared to other numbers It actually doesn't work like that because boxes have varying weights each so it's gonna be different So I would not open in way it. It's a pretty rare item in this third-party blister It's pretty cool So if you want to risk it and go for that big pole like the blue eyes white dragon You have about a 1 in 120 chance to pull the blue eyes white dragon, which is not great You know, it's pretty small chance less than 1% chance But if you do hit it you get a great return and of course as with everything seal It's not really worth it to open in terms of the price that things probably worth $1,500 $2,000 as it is so you would have to pull like an LLB ultra rare and grade it at least in nine to actually make it worth it For some of a nine wouldn't even be enough. So opening LLB is not worth I do it a lot because the gamble it's the gamble That's kind of what makes it worth it, you know Because you have the chance to pull something good in terms of actual monetary value You're almost never gonna make your money back. You can grade the comments However, but we've got to wait until they actually give us a reasonable service where we can actually afford to send the comments in for not $150 so for now, it's not really an option. So for that one, I'm gonna say not worth it as well So we've got a lot of not worth it's today worth it or not I pulled the iris sword soul in Adana Magici blister box keep it sell it wrong get it greater when the price goes down if ever Do not grade this. This is absolutely Never worth grading for $150. This is a $25 new card for new cards You don't want to grade most of them things you would consider grading starlight rares new ghost rares that are like dark Magician You know something iconic, but if it's a brand new card like iris sort soul, which is a cool card and everything It's brand new. It has no nostalgia factor. It's only $25. It's not very expensive and it's just like a meta card So if you grade something that's meta it can no longer be played in a deck So it doesn't really have a lot of value to be graded and even if it was graded if you got a nine on it I mean it probably worth like 50 bucks at most and like you just spent $150 So if anything if you really wanted to grade it you have to wait until the $20 rate. That's it That's maximum. You can spend grading on this thing For keeping it or selling it raw It depends on if it actually becomes a staple or used in a meta deck like a really powerful deck like tier 1 tier 2 When people start paying a lot because they really want to use that deck because it's really strong right now I think the sword souls are very new so we don't know if they're actually gonna be really good or not I think there's some speculation if they will be if they are then maybe it'd be worth it to hold and then go up But if they flop, you know, it could tank to you know, five bucks or something like that It's all about meta speculation and I am personally not great at that I don't do a lot of meta play so I can't really give you an answer to that worth it or not I had this card for a while blue eyes ultimate dragon secret rare JMP I was wondering if it was worth grading. It's not a mint card I think it would be good to know what you think because I don't have grading experience So I think you nearly you almost answer your own question. So you said it's not a mint card. So for this card I believe it's around a $30 card. Let's double check. Okay, so it looks like they're selling $20 for a light play $15 I don't want to click on everything, but I'm guessing like light play is 15 to 20 bucks So near minutes, maybe 30 so it's about right on that. Let's check the pictures We have all we have damage right there up top. So that right there is gonna give you like five So you're grading a PSA five right now.  I think you guys know that one is not worth it But the reason is I mean, you don't want to spend $150 for a $30 card You don't have a comeback and still worth $30, you know $150 for nothing The only reason is a lot of people did not listen to the disclaimer last time But this series is about if it's worth it for your money or not not not necessarily your nostalgia So anything you want to grade for nostalgia I would still advise waiting for the cheaper rates But if you really just want it for this for yourself just to slab it up I mean, there's no point in asking me then because I like I don't need to tell you if it's worth it to You in nostalgia. So yeah, just to get that out of the way worth or not recently attained this beauty The box is a bit roughed out, but it's still in factory sealed product worth opening and grading bloods by dragon or not So with these it depends on What you think the blue eyes could get so if you could like if you are able to see in there and check out the centering Sometimes you can sometimes you can't Then maybe you could tell if it has a tin chance or not The problem with these decks is a lot of times they come out with stuff on the back of the blue eyes And they're on instantly like eight or nines and if it's eight or nine It really makes it a lot less worth it, but the potential of the tin is really high So it tends around 12 to 15,000 I don't know exactly where kind of jumps between in between those numbers and let's check out what the decks are going for I think they're like 5,000 or something like that. Okay. I'm not seeing any First editions on listed or sold, but I think they're around five to six grand So if you were to grade the blue eyes white dragon PSA 10 it would be worth about double your starter deck. However, if you got a nine, let's check that out Okay, so we see an eight here and eight is one thousand five hundred fifty dollars So I don't see any nines and nine was sold for less than that. This was a while ago. This was July So if it was one thousand five hundred for an eight, maybe a nine's like three four five grand something like that a nine Might get you close to breaking even so you have a good chance at breaking even if it gets a nine And then you could double your money if it gets a ten So honestly, I think this is one where because the box is a little roughed up It might actually be worth it to check out the blue eyes if it is off-center It has something on the back. It's gonna get the eight and you're gonna lose money But that's usually I say if it's worst-case scenario, but for this you got to take a little bit of a risk I think it would be worth it often time There is a lot of PSA team quality cards in the start at kibus So it could be worth it if you want to not keep the box seal But it is kind of cool to have the box you may get that ten and double your money So I'd say it's worth it go for it worth or not recently picked up my first ghost rare red dragon Archene first edition this card looks clean at the front of the back of some dings and scuffing Wondering if it would still be worth sending the PSA for grading even if I got an eight I would be happy with just for the collection. Okay, so you answer your own question I was gonna say you answer your own question It would be worth it But I think you're asking if it you want it to at least get an eight if that's what you're asking now I'm looking at the car. I saw this on the replay that that kind of changed I was gonna say this is not an eight the front looks good, but when you get to this back I mean wait, let me see if I can pause it right there boom. Okay. I can't I guess in the way There's a there's a big gas right here. That's gonna really kill the grade and then there's some lines like this, so That gas right there is gonna make it like a seven six area So if you're looking for a minimum eight, oh, and then there's more there Yeah, that's at least a six So if you're looking for better than a six then it's not gonna happen and then in terms of the money It's definitely not worth it because of getting a six or whatever So I would if you want to slap that one up save it for the $20 rate Not worth it worth or not really old promo and old. I do list ID cards. Is this for grading? I don't even know if you can grade these. I don't think you can grade dual s ID cards Honestly, they look cool though. I'll give you that worth it or not We got another obelisk the tormentor secret ferro secret rare So these are the same thing for all the ferro secret rares. They're not really worth it 200 They're more so worth it at 150 I think these are one of the things that it really like went from not really worth it to maybe they are worth it now They would were they're extremely worth it if they are, you know, $100 or less if they're 150 I think borderline, but I think if you think it's a nine to ten candidate Then I would you know, maybe send it in because one it'll be fun. It'll be an experience if you get the 10 It's awesome, and it's definitely worth $150 more if you get a 10 I even think the nine should hold up fairly well So I think yeah, it's probably worth the descendant 150 now for the secret ferro's rare Which by the way is the name I did not I actually mentioned on the last video and cut it out A lot of you guys asked me so yeah The secret rare name up here the silvery name means secret rare and the ultra rare is the gold name worth it or not Beckett I Don't know a lot about OCG So I can't really help you there I would say check out eBay check the prices and then bet for Beckett their prices are still really high So and I personally don't really like Beckett personally at all So I wouldn't want to pay a lot for for them unless it's like a really valuable card that you think could maybe get a black label That's about the only time I would use them worth it or not g3 11 secret dmg worth crossing grading to psa Another one that is OCG however I can't say about cross grading and he's usually very tough to send something in the case and have them actually cross it over They do it sometimes But it needs to be very very pristine and because this has a nine edges I can almost guarantee they would not cross it over because they see oh this is one of their weakest 9.5 We're not going to make this a 10 at psa and make us look weaker You know what I mean that might not be part of their thought process But I can almost guarantee it is because they're thinking you know Like do we really want to be like the weak 9.5 is our 10? You know what I mean? So I don't think it would be worth it. Maybe if you cracked it and resub it but based on those sub grades It looks like you would have a small chance. So maybe just keep it in the becket slab It looks good as a 9.5 worth it or not They would all have small things that bring down the grade vampire lord is the only one that seems perfect to me Okay, so we have a change of heart from metal raiders first edition That's a good card to grade if it's minty vampire lord first edition art crisis I like that exciting net cross first edition art crisis awesome And we've got a blue eyes tuned dry. What language is that first edition that might be is that german? I think a flage or it's probably not how you say that but I think that means german edition in german at least Okay, so let's see exodian net cross man. Honestly that card looks really clean. The centering looks good on the front Oh, there it is. Okay. Not worth it. It's not that one's not worth it Man, that's a bummer because that card looks good. It looked good in the binder though Okay, so for the german ones Uh, is that srl? That's actually cool first edition srl german that that corner doesn't look great And then being german it's worth less unfortunately. So I probably would not grade that Certainly not grade that one. Okay. Yeah, if it's got something like this, you just should not grade. It's not worth it That's gonna get like a four uh vampire lord Okay, from what I can tell so far. It looks good. Maybe a slight whitening there, but that wouldn't discourage me so far Okay, there's no extra pick. So I can't really tell but if it the centering may be a little off I would guess a nine just based off this There'd be a little line right there a little whitening there and then the centering I think that might bring it down to a nine and I don't know what the back looks like could be worse And then uh, the fact that you said small things and then this was there makes me wonder if this is actually in great shape I'm not sure. This has a little damage there And yeah, that would that would bring it down to like an eight. So Maybe the vampire lord But vampire lord nines are not worth that much. So honestly, I would not grade any of these at 150 Maybe at 20 dollars you send some in maybe like the vampire lord of 50 dollars Maybe even But uh, yeah, I would not send these in worth or not first at mfc. Is it worth grading also very tempted to rip it Okay, if you're going between those your best option is to grade it because graded packs have actually gotten pretty expensive however You're gonna have to wait a very long time because they only have their most expensive service up I think it's like 200 dollars. You have to pay 200 bucks You're gonna have to wait like a year and honestly paying that much and waiting that long It kind of takes away a lot of the value that it's going to bring you eventually It's more of like a park your money somewhere and wait to get more. So if it is a Let's check it out if it is a I don't know if that's a dmg pack or not If it's a dmg pack maybe go for it If it's a diffusion wave pack do not open Not worth it because you can only get the the worst secret where you can't get the dmg So you need to know the ipc for that one if it's dmg I you can maybe go for it You might have might be worth the risk It's probably it's probably not going to be in there But if you want to gamble for that big one But if you are going to gamble make sure it has the dark magician girl potential Otherwise definitely not worth it worth it or not video to go along with my post. Okay. Here it is Pack fresh mp1 cosmo queen and o2 unlimited buster blader I've pulled both and they have been sleeved in card savers since then probably wouldn't great buster blader But just wanted to throw it out there since he's so elusive to rucks. That is true We did finally pull like two of them though, which is a visit three No, we pulled three which was awesome. We broke the streak Cosmo queen mcdonald's pack one of my favorites However, they don't have high value in psa. This is one that I would definitely wait until a lower rate But I really love this card and I would definitely grade it when you can for a lot cheaper The buster blader same thing. It's it's just not very expensive being unlimited But I would definitely grade it if I mean the centering looks fairly decent on both of these cards It looks like their surfaces are very clean Maybe a little that would probably get a nine because of that little bit of a foggy back But sometimes they get away with that So yeah, I would grade those maybe like a bulk and cosmo queen Maybe even for like 50 bucks or something. These are my favorite cards that I own stop playing yugio years ago I will never sell them. I wanted to get them greater for myself But when the prices go down, okay, you think they look good enough the blue eyes that I want left is sm 51 Okay, so this is another this is some other four ones I think this is from that debt. Yeah the ex deck that I opened But the ex is the cheaper one. I think I think I opened the original and there's an ex version So for these when the prices go down is what you're asking It looks like they're very clean when prices go down. I think grading blue eyes is a no-brainer for 20 bucks It doesn't matter what it is. They're gonna be super cheap. There's a little spot on this one Even if they get nine, I think they're totally worth the $20 sending So I would definitely send these in at the lower price like you were saying first at summon skull worth it or not Okay, this one's Oh, that's pretty That's really pretty Okay, I can't see the back too well the lighting needs to be on it. Yeah like this perfect. Yeah Yeah, definitely definitely worth it. It is a little bit of scuffing right there. I can see And that okay in that okay, you're probably looking at a nine at best But summon skull 150 bucks you get a nine. What what would an eight be worth? Let's check out the eights real quick nine goes for $1,300 $1,400 something like that. It's gone like that twice It's almost definitely not gonna get the 10 so we can't include that also with pwcc So you know how that is but it looks like nine. So that's a lot lower on that nine. That was july, okay, so At 150 you're looking up to increase like, you know a thousand dollars. It's probably no It's probably like a three or four hundred dollar card. Yeah 900 thousand dollars. I don't know what an eight would go for Let's see if we can find an eight in is there any listed There's no eight sold and eight there's up for a thousand. That's too much. It's not gonna sell So maybe like five six hundred, but I mean, I think your minimum you're like breaking even so I would say For the summon skull, I'd probably send it in for 150. I mean, it's worth the risk You could get a nine you'd go up quite a bit. I think in value So I'd go for it worth it or not demock pulled from force of the breaker special edition Noticable print line on the reverse with slide off centered border. Also an mr D en mirror force pulled from f l one small circular printing error on the middle right side of pick perfect reverse side Okay, so the front here from what I can tell sintering is yeah, it's it's off from top to bottom. It's not horrible Back with noticeable print line. So where's the print line? I honestly don't see the print line.  No, this is el en. Okay. So these are en. All right. So they're en. So they're very niche. They're very niche What en means is this en? abbreviation right here so They're actually a 2004 2005 print of the cards actually the invasion cast might be like 2007 because it's the breaker But mirror forces the 2005 edition from f l one or master collection one So these are I would say for 150 not worth it But I I would definitely grade these because people really do like these en's a few people Or um, you can just keep them, you know in the binder, but they're definitely not 150 worthy But maybe like 20 or 50 dollar worth. I would grade them at 20 for sure All right. Well, we're we're wrapping it up a couple more maybe BLVO traditional a good center with no discernible scratches on the obverse or reverse of the card also The utopia also nice center, you know to get detectable scratches on both sides of the card Both cards are very nice rounded corners possible at 9 10. Okay Because these are 9 10s, uh, I like grading star lights. A lot of people say don't grade anything new You shouldn't grow any new stuff. I mean, it's like three four hundred dollar cards So if it's like a four hundred dollar card and it gets a 10 It's going to be worth like a thousand bucks the nine However, you're not going to make a lot of money. So you've got to keep that in mind You're either going to break even or lose a little bit However, if you think I mean these look very very clean I am pro grading star lights if you think they get 10 even though There's you know a lot of them out there, but they're very hard to pull Eventually, no one's going to be pulling them people only pull these right when they come out And then nobody pulls them after that because they're so hard to pull It's got to be you got to open multiple cases to even get a starlight much less the one you want You guys have seen my stardust series. I would say go for it. Send them in centering looks good Services look good. I would send it in your worst case scenario. You get some nines But I think if you get a 10 you definitely like double your money, which is really good worth it or not We have a legendary dragon of white here This is one of my favorite cards where I saw actually get to me a PSA 10 of this, which is really cool I love the prismatic secret rare. This is from world superstars. So it looks like the card is pretty clean on the front The back Maybe a couple print lines, but this looks like a solid card. We got to check the price though Okay, so for first edition italian italian italian Okay, so if we get to the english copies lowest is 56 plus two dollars should be like $58 Pretty expensive card, but not that expensive However, we got to look at those PSA prices. See what they go for it looks like a gym mint 10 So for $340 a month ago, wait, what is this? Oh, it's a nine. Okay, and then 130 do two dollars for nine That basically answers our question I would not rate this for 150 because if you get a nine, it's worth less than the grading costs, which is not good So for that card, I really really like that card. I think it's a great blue eyes card. It's really cool looking I would definitely grade it at a lower price about 150. It's not worth it. This is gonna be our final post There's still others. I'm sorry. I couldn't get to everybody. This is already gonna be a long video Go make your post. I'm gonna check out older posts in future videos potentially so go make another post And I'll check them out in the next week or whenever we do this again All right, our final post if I miss you I might get to you in a future episode and if you guys want to be part of the series Check out rsus works on 34 on reddit and make your post and I'll try and review them Worth it or not starlight rare black rose drag and secret fair is rare raw Uh, we were to talk about fair is rare raw So you already know what to think about that slight scraps in the back of black rose, but overall good So sin ring looks good Back slight scratch. I'm not seeing is that the scratchy sign about or is that just the I don't see the scratch All right, so if it's between nine and ten like I've said about the star lights and black rose is one of the biggest ones It's an iconic card This is one definitely worth submitting. I think especially for 150 because 150 is much better than 200 I would definitely send this guy in Hopefully you get that 10 because that's a very very cool card and we're uh, hopefully gonna see my stardust coming back soon I'm really excited about that one that wraps it up for this episode of worth it or not If you guys are enjoying the series, please like the video Let me know that you're liking it because last video I wasn't sure if we were gonna make another one, but then so many comments were telling me I really like this video. I really enjoyed it. I think it was very helpful. So I was like, you know what? Let's go. Let's try episode two. Let's see how it does people are still liking it We'll do another episode so check out rsus works to 34 if you want to be a part of the next one And let me know in the comments if you really didn't like it Also want to mention we are getting close to selling out that magicians forest booster box So if you guys are interested in that live stream, I don't know when it's gonna be It just depends on when it sells out. Maybe this weekend or something would be really cool So go check that out in the description or in the pinned comment or whatever I put it and you guys can get a pack and we can potentially pull the dark magician girl I'll let you know if it's worth or not when we pull it up It's gonna be probably be worth it because that card's really expensive But that's it for this one guys. I will see you guys later Peace