Welcome And so head of digital content at Douglas H.E. Mr. Sasha Pellenberg Welcome, Mr. Pellenberg President of AVS Mobile Tech, Mr. Edward Wen Welcome, Mr. Wen and also Business Weekly Chief Writer, Ms. Ru-Ing-Zen She was our panelist yesterday as well And also let's welcome the facilitator of the panel discussion, Mr. Jason Wan Digital Content Editor-in-Chief at Business Weekly Welcome all our panelists and of course welcome the facilitator for three days forum Now I would like to head over to Jason Good afternoon everyone I'm Jason Wan and we're visiting today weekly and this is our first day for future talk in Taipei and Actually, we aim to finish this future talk in very high note Therefore, we reserve the biggest shot today this afternoon and Here's four of us There are five of us, sorry We all have deal with the topic the topic we're going to deal with today is The last pillars probably the most ones in the future talk, which is autonomous driving and I think as usual so my first questions goes to Sasha and We just hear Michael Mr. Myers talking about a lot of the progress of Mercedes doing some autonomous driving and I still need you to use probably five minutes to give us ideas how the damler see the autonomous Drivings in the future and what are the major breakthroughs on technology to make the future mobility come true? Your ideas and you are representative of the damler. Well, thank you To give me that opportunity in general. Well actually Let me let me kind of build the bridge over to the keynote that we just heard I Really love the idea when people are constantly coming up with some buzzwords and they are starting to trend right now And we're when we take a look where they are actually really coming from yes So when we're talking about AI, I think the first expert system I played around with was in the early 80s when I was like 12 or 13 years old and Even before that as a kid the first thing where I had a little bit of a contact to a kind of fake AI That was the fake like Eliza from Weizenbaum Which was a little program that? Gave you the idea of talking to someone with a little bit of intelligent Okay, it was of course faking it a little bit When we're talking about the development of the autonomous car about three years ago I wrote an article about the roots of all of it, but he started in the 30s Where the first companies were working on cruise control? that was just the very first conceptual idea of kind of steering a car without Any kind of human control? Uh-huh, and it took until the late 50s to bring this into a serious production. Okay the first Fundamental developments are in the Daimler group started in the early to mid 80s Okay, 80s in 1986. We started something With a technical Institute of Achim in Germany the university which was called the project Prometheus And the project Prometheus was the idea of how can we? Combine what's already available was cruise control with automatic braking systems with an automatic steering and Therefore it was the first time where we had to dive into how we're gonna? Identify objects over cameras, okay, and sensors, uh-huh, which sounds for us as human beings just as such a commodity Yeah, to identity because we know right away if there is an object Moving towards us, right or it's just moving into the same direction. It's just standing still for a machine to Get this idea is it's really a challenge Especially when you look at the processing power of the mid 80s, right now We carry little supercomputers in our pockets That almost combined all of the computing power that was available in the early 80s in the palm of our hands, so but the fundamental Ideas and Workings and developments on the algorithms of object identifying for autonomous cars were set up from the project Prometheus in the 80s So this is over 30 years ago And we're still not even close what we would say is an autonomous car Okay, we're lacking processing power. Definitely the software layer on top of it, which is gonna be so important for the future It's constantly getting better Is it's another issue right now what we have in series to give you an idea There are five levels of Autonomous C in a car These are the standards for this industry right now. We are at a level, too okay, and We won't even call it an autonomous car. We call this driving assistance systems So if you guys are getting into the new s-class right now You will already get a really interesting idea of what it can do to you. I trust me next year It's going to be even more interested because you're going to be the first Manufacturer out there to bring this to the compact class with the new a-class Yes, we have prototypes right that are in the level four region a Level four is a completely autonomous car, but you still need to be there as a driver To kind of check out what's going on a level five is what you see for example at Google was rainbow This is a level five autonomously. There's no there's no steering wheel anymore We're gonna get there in the next We probably think right now our prediction is that in the next five to seven years five tests at seven years This is all about the safety, right? So on top of it. We also need to have a Legal infrastructure for this. All right. So who is responsible for this? It is going to be the company It is going to be the developer. It's just going to be I don't know the operating system that you build around this or is it going to be You're your telecom provider that needs to build up connection to the cloud, right? This is a really really interesting game we're in and it's so complex right now that I can just only Recommend everyone that are waiting things that there is an autonomous car available right now Just to step back a little bit calm down Do you mean seeing next five to seven years so we can see the level five Autonomy driving absolutely Okay, the breakthrough the breakthrough will be robotuxies I mean we've had a we've had a nice demonstration here in Taipei last year, right with this little bus I think it was driving up and down a genie road and I Think the robotuxies will be different Which will be a hard blow for the Taiwanese taxi community because we have so many caps on the streets over here But it's it's definitely gonna shake it's gonna be the first step into autonomous driving's taxis next Should be the first Product service. Yes. Yes. Okay, and we know at worse. Yeah, you are also one of the play Major players in the autonomous driving technology, right? And I know you found that you are chairman's of a mobile mobile eyes, right? Could you could you give me a Some ideas what your business engage and how did you? contribute to the autonomous driving in the future Okay, I'm Thanks, I'm not the chairman of mobile. I am I'm the partner of the mobile I in Taiwan in Malaysia Malaysia and I'm very glad to talk about the subject of the autonomous Driving and I'm not not sure how many of you have a really the experience to to be in the car of the self-driving car. I Think I got some opportunity in March last year in March because I am the President of the eight us mobile tech and also the secretary general of Taiwan Israel Chamber of Commerce And I'm not sure how many of you have heard about the company called mobile. I Mobile I they just got acquired by Intel and they are very kind of important technology provider for autonomous driving for eight us advanced Driver assistance systems and so so kind of we help because they don't want to sell that's a margin to load They wanted to be the technology Driver so they did that the sale and take support to us so When I Was in Israel last year They give us a try for the on the road in Jerusalem for the autonomous car So it's not kind of 30 kilo Kilometer per hour is 120 Kilometer per hour 120 in the auto pilot car. No, no, no in the regular regular road Okay 120 recognize that the traffic light and auto pass the car Stop slowly and even now they Intend to develop the the map for the for the car and also that the strategy the AI is Kind of better than human being to judge. What is the driving policy? So this is kind of this is not a dream. This is happening today Actually, I got a Mercedes. So I really like Mercedes. I like to have a autonomous car from Mercedes next time Okay, yeah, I like to hear that in my first question goes to Andrea and we know that Autonomous driving is not power only by fuel but also by data artificial intelligence and Data and artificial intelligence. This is not matters for the vehicle itself it's a matter of a whole ecosystem, right and including the regulations and the legal matters and such as The whole ecosystems and I think the government is the quite important players to make Autonomous driving come true and in your ideas how the Taiwan will play the roles in the Future autonomous driving's in a word your ideas because you found the government, right? Could you say something share with us? certainly Actually the legislative Yuan our legislative body have just passed the so-called Fintech's Sandbox right you may have heard about it the idea is that the current Financial technologies such as blockchains such as novel uses of Financial data or information is sometimes not anticipated by the legislators who did those car those laws before So the sandbox says Basically any fintech company can declare that they are going to deploy a new technology But instead of inflicting it to the whole society they select an area Maybe a hundred people maybe five hundred okay, and then over a period of six months They do a what we call a regulatory co-creation The co-creation means that it is not just Specified by the vendor nor it is just specified by the city government or the national government Rather whether this is a good idea is collaboratively determined by experts Of all the different disciplines including social sciences as well as the people who are affected by this new technology Right, so this is just like having an autonomous car driving at a slower speed on a smaller region But for the society to have a chance to interact with this new species if you will and so this Idea of sandbox can gradually expand so after six months of fintech Experimentation they can say okay This is a bad idea and so the whole society learns with actual data that this is bad idea All right, or if it's a good idea then the regulators can develop what we call Regulatory technology or rec tech Regulatory technology enables the public servants to look at how the technology is interacting with the society Also with the help of AI of machine intelligence So AI is not just useful on the private sector and civil society But it also possible part of the regulation for AI to help us to regulate this new creations And so after a period of experimentation if this is deemed a good idea by the whole society Not just legislators and vendors then we translate this into a new regulation or a new kind of law And then everybody already has the consensus and so the startup can go on and establish a new discipline And so after the fintech sandbox the next sandbox law we're going to introduce early this year is the What we call the uncrued vehicles autonomous vehicles And we call it vehicles rather than cars because we already have those remote islands such as Penghu Island There's many rural island that really needs a you know autopilot boat To send the people who have medical needs to have any kinds of needs to places to Ma Gong or to Tainan or to other cities and then there's of course also you know air taxis like vertical takeoff and landing Devices that are not strictly speaking cars anymore by more like mini helicopters And so we call them autonomous vehicles instead of just cars because by calling them cars And boats and drones all kind of just go back into the old delineated silos, but what we want is this creative creations are Co-created with the society so those new hybrid model of vehicle are then given like six months or a year of a limited speed Limited area creation so that we can co-domesticate With this kind of new species and so to learn how to for example How to pull a car over how to have a real dialogue? How do we know that what's its intention are and things like that and then gradually you co-evolve the regulations So that's our basic strategy. Okay test fields data sharing and then regulatory Taxi will be one of service Well, actually there are many remote places that currently no taxi will drive to because it's not worse The driver's time and because they will not pick any passengers on the way To those rural areas and so at the moment the Ministry of Transport and Communications has this idea of maybe you can book your needs in advance And then one taxi go and pick up the the right sharing your passengers But it still needs a you know platform to Collect people's needs what if we can just make this, you know speed limited But still very practical for people in the rural areas and it will not compete with taxi drivers Uh-huh, it will be serving the places where it was an economic to serve those areas And so this is one of the few areas that the Ministry of Transport has agreed that it may be a very good use for Experimentational Self-driving car rather than just go into the street of a Taipei and compete with everybody else I'm excited to hear things like this and I know Microsoft better lots of in Taiwan especially when Taiwan is the IT powerhouse say from 30 years ago See and do you have any plan to work with Taiwan company or Taiwan government on the AI? applications such as Autonomous driving is for other things that do you how do you feel when you hear the Andrew says there's a sandbox of the autonomous drive is in Taiwan. It says excited you No, yeah, I have to say this sandbox is definitely the The first step in the right direction. Okay, because the thing is that nowadays Innovation comes from everywhere. Uh-huh. We cannot just foresee everything and then to try to come go through the existing complicated Illegals to try to make it happen. So having the sandbox is something will encourage Innovation right so that way though the way Microsoft sees is the way we position ourselves is We are an IT provider We provide the platforms. We encourage Innovation, but we don't compete with our customers So if you if every people people try to recall for the last couple years You never heard any news that Microsoft is trying to build our own driverless cars. No, no We are not like the other G player, you know, the other thing they tried to build their own, right? We are just here mainly as a technology provider. You have learn. Yes, just like Satya says right? We are here to empower people. We're not here to compete with our customers So we work with them like Mercedes. We have this mobile office Collaboration that's working on right. So this is basically where we see Microsoft role is and then also of course We are working closely with the government Taiwan many things in talent developments in basically how to bring AI down to Taiwan Is there any Projects about the autonomous driving for Microsoft in the other countries? I'm going projects or Well, you're the way I will put it this way Okay, we have a lot of close collaboration with many Automotive companies. Yes, then one of the key things for instance We develop actually it's not just with the auto companies. We actually created a simulation platform called air sim Air sim basically gives anybody everything the access to the data and the simulation required To create applications based on autonomous driving or based on mobility What does that mean because think about it? Who can actually have the access with car companies to actually build something with it? Very limited people right you want to develop autonomous car needs a lot of money. That's number one But with this simulation platform like I mentioned in my talk that Anybody a high school student as long as an idea he can leverage this platform, which is open source, right? And then he can already develop application on top of it with the data We have collected throughout our platforms and also actually how we came out with this because of Xbox All the Xbox, you know all the car games nowadays, that's how we basically simulate those so what that further encourages is innovation from the crowd from the people because once that same Mercedes come out with a nice Exciting driverless cars then probably within a short period of time a lot of applications are already available And then the users or the drivers can decide what they do to further enhance Right, they do they experience so that's basically our strategy. Oh, yes, and Andrew There's our government Seeking the partnership from the overseas companies or government or institutes to realize the sandbox My name is Audrey by the way. Anyway, I think the the idea is not exactly just about one or two partnership with multinational companies The Taiwan government is very much aware that our AI talent is not specific to any vertical There are other Asian countries that focus on financial technology that focus on one or two verticals But one of the strengths in Taiwan in addition to a very good semiconductor Supply chain is that we have social innovators in all of those different verticals Including every cultural use of drones, right? And and then like disaster recovery and emergency response of autonomous boats and vehicles Right, so when a new technology comes many innovators in Taiwan The first thing they think about is what social problem or what social issue can this technology solve? How can we make the society a better place rather than how just in one or two verticals Can I earn the most profit profit of course is still important? But for many Taiwan entrepreneurs the ability to work across different fields and to solve real social issues is even more important And so which is why the idea of social innovation of social entrepreneurship of having the society to Co-create the regulation is important because otherwise we would just be you know Agreeing to any and every new technological buzzword without it's actually integrating with the need of the society So multinational companies our focus is more on the talents Parts on the talents more on the education stem education on delivering more equal participation like What Microsoft has said it's crowd sourcing platform allows anyone with a iPad or a surface tablet To participate in application design for a virtual simulated autonomous vehicle So we see it as a education tool with a new tool even school children will not see AI as something mysterious Or something dangerous everybody will just learn, you know how to use fire how to cooking, right? They have this very basic grasp of how to interact with AI and then if people want to feel how it's like We have virtual reality augment reality and so on so we create a safe spaces in the education system So people can get literate with those technologies without the fear of being hit by an actual car So as I think this is one of our core focus of partnering with multinationals is to create a stem education environment Very good. Very good. And I know the carry and I know why we impressed in Autonomous driving you have some worries about the talent a special job loss, right? although some talents will be promoted or or Be promote as a Rising stars and but there are some job losses occur as well. Yes, and could you just Share your fault autonomous car will be it must have it's will happen. Definitely. And what I noticed is the Uber started a project in Pittsburgh well started a project in Pittsburgh To use a self-driver to self-drive car and to pick up people and all of a sudden I think about that We think a Uber driver Can earn extra payment, you know by just using Uber as a driver So ordinary people can not only have their job and then can could have Extra pay you know by using their time to be a driver And just after three and four years and all of a sudden that's a Uber trying to text the self-drive car Which means that the the company only have a if the company has a self-drive car and they don't have to hire any Driver to deliver their service service, right? I just pop out the question is Well the number Artificial intelligence with a number of the job of the artificial intelligence create Could equal the number of job is Terminated so I just have this question that maybe a lot of people have the same questions So I just want to know Andrea Jackson Jason. Oh Sasha. I have some opinion about about that About government. Yes Come realize Yeah, you got to a lot of talking today as a Educator and previously a member of the K212 curriculum design program Our main idea in redoing the basic education K212 curriculum is to stop Seeing the school as where the student pick up useful skills And and that was a very East Asian view right people go to school They pick one or two disciplines and they get trained have to skill the society needs and so on and so forth But in our new curriculum our focus has shifted instead of a skill set best Education we are have moving to a mindset a character based education and a mindset based education or character based education Suyang Daoxiang Jiao Yu places the importance of Autonomy actually just like in autonomous cart in the sense that people should be motivated Children should be motivated by their curiosity instead of them being a useful skilled Person as we say here in Taiwan工具人 where we're moving moving away from that and the second character We're encouraging is the ability to interact Ability to communicate to especially with people with very different backgrounds or very different trainings very different Disciplines and then after they can do this They can collaborate on what we call the common good meaning that we enable the children to have the idea of Being team players instead of competing with each other on arbitrary score on arbitrary skill sets and Identifying with those skills. We are teaching children now to identify with what social good Can they co-create for the society? And so if you think about work this way as in life's work as in what beneficial to the society There are many work that only becomes possible because of artificial intelligence and for example Rural areas that really needs those AV Transportation they will need plan us. They will need people who take care of their medical needs There are every other needs and so transportation for them is an enabler without this Autonomous transportation will cost too much to ship medicine to ship services to their doors So it will of course create more kind of jobs But the key idea is that whether people will identify with the work they create Value to the society rather than they being especially good at one particular skill Because if identified with the skill set eventually it will be automated away And then we will have a subjective loss of dignity But if dignity is built on the life's work that you can do for the society it will never be a source of Fear because anything is just an enabler to these students And so for people to adapt quickly from one skill to another skills They need it for example from more manual skills to more planning skills more communication soft skills What AI can do is that they can serve as a tireless teacher We have many stimulation boxes where people can learn how to repair Machines how to do urban planning how to talk about democracy Participatory budgeting in a simulated environment facilitated by Artificial intelligence plus human intelligence and so in this kind of educational environment people come to see AI as something They can go back to when they need to learn something new and then so they become life-long learners And so AI first becomes an help to the life-long learners And then becomes a help to people who do social good as what their life's work are then there will be no Fear of job loss or job, you know Elimination so that's our educational strategy to collaborate to the face a future where all the tasks and skills will be Automated gradually away, but the life's work of people and what people value will always be there Sasha, I know you want to say something that could you just hold on for a minute and My next question goes to Edwards, and I know you went to Israel On March right and so something interesting and in AI Development could you share with the audience while you saw things in Israel? Israel is a Country is a small country 800 8 million people only but it's a kind of different operation model than that our country in Taiwan. They are more focused on some Innovation high-tech research portion. They do not take focus too much in them in the manufacturing And but I want to right away. I would like to say talk about some more about the continue about the subject about AI and the safety Because that's the thing about the reality if we talk about the eight us That the seven self-driving car if this is not better Than human being that myself Why why should I what should we hold the whole industry go move on to that direction? That that simply think about this and you know Must be Joshua professor Joshua did kind of a model and calculation For the self-driving car must be kind of maybe thousand times safer than the human being If I said one hour the accident ray is Time does I don't know say how the English is it a full city the full of Sipang that the accident rate is That the the the self-contact it should be food your Sipang Sorry, I kind of too long. I cannot I don't know how to say in So must be safer and that the reality if the car Implement the eight us advanced driver systems it can reduce I think about 50% Traffic accident, that's the reality So when we are moving from the computer time from the smartphone the next things I think when we are visiting customer Got to every day many customers Many many people are very very interesting in car industry now Indeed, okay. Yes. Good nice to hear that Sasha. I Would just like to act fine something in general Regarding the Regarding the fear that always comes up in societies whenever a new technology gets introduced to it The first and most fundamental fear is a very existential one. It's Will it kind of kill our jobs? I remember that in the Action the car industry they had this in the 70s When they started to introduce automatic production lines to this industry They're just in time production the way of how to do lean production The first robots came into the car industry in the mid 70s. No, huh and Did it change anything for this industry actually we have way more employee right now We have released right now in this industry that we've ever ever had before It's evolving dramatically Yeah, every new technology did this to the world right when we look at like 500 years ago What were the fundamental resources we had at that time was basically like metal wood and stones And that's about it and we've had a couple of professions at that time that we don't have right now anymore Societies are evolving and I think also Taiwan is a fun It's a perfect example what what what the government established over here in the late 70s early 80s how they Really inspired a complete in new industry Yes start over here and to basically take over the world with their products So sometimes you need to whether it's from the government side to kind of kick-start new processes it's always important to have the right environment for this and It's also a matter of how you're gonna educate people about new technologies Okay, to educate them about what's gonna happen AI sounds first of all kind of weird I mean there is an artificial intelligence. What does that mean? Is it gonna be smarter than us? Sooner or later. I mean we've had these predictions Based on Moore's law a couple of years ago that by the year 2025 we're gonna have process of a silicon that combines the performance of a human brain on a little ship and like five years later We're gonna have silicon that combines the performance of all human brains. Is it gonna happen? I'm not so sure even though that the Moore's law was quite a constant over the last 20 years We need to be aware of challenges with new technologies But I mean I live I came here to Taiwan 50 years ago a 15 years ago for the first time I live over here for nine years. There was a reason why I really love Taiwan And and I say this as a German because Germans are more like yeah that technology is pretty pretty cool But what if it could do this and this and that right over here in Taiwan is like In my opinion Taiwanese people are in general more open to new technologies and they love to embrace new technologies They are more like wow. This is so cool. What can I do with it? What are the advantages of this new technologies by Germans are very skeptical? Yeah We always love to perfectionize everything and it needs to last for a thousand years or what not Nothing lasts for a thousand years in our societies anymore things are changing so quickly Okay, right when I when I look at what we what we have with a company like Microsoft. Yeah It's now Almost 50 years old Yeah, we're old When I was the kid I could have never imagined that oh wow Microsoft is a company that is half a century old All right, and how they transformed especially with such a dollar joint them. Yeah, absolutely amazing a geek by heart Someone that really came out of the company to transform this company by the way I also have that book I just read it in On my vacations absolutely fantastic or a company like an Edward was so humble about the achievements of mobile I they're actually that was in my opinion the biggest The biggest acquisition in the automotive industry last year that into took over mobile. I um a very rational a very pragmatic company and in terms of their technology the leading company on the autonomous field and What they were what they were doing in in the last years It's absolutely mind-blowing and it was very very important to have a Company a start-up studying in Israel and I think it's a very inspiring story the story of mobile I what is possible in this world? and that's actually basically the last statement I just want to add to this is To educate people about technology to educate them about the possibilities Right and especially to educate young people about the possibilities of technology in at you in It needs to start at a very early age and to inspire them and to just let them know about the possibilities Yeah, and what's going to happen because we are on the edge of A world very good that's going to look so differently in a decade from now It's going to change for the automotive industry It will change more fundamentally and more radically in the next five years than it did in the last 50 years Yes, and I think that's mind-blowing right right and my next question goes to miss Tom's and We know the technology keep changing right how the regulation follows in the government roles you are regulators to Allocate the resources and regulating the behaviors and how do you see when the autonomous driving commies? How the regulation follows as a government? official as I mentioned about the regulatory Co-creation this idea actually came and it's pretty consistent With what we call the you know character based learning or The new to tough curriculum because the teachers role in the new curriculum has changed Fundamentally as compared to the skill set based education in the previous era In especially East Asian countries the teachers role is to represent the source of truth Right, so even if the kids know better in order to pass examinations Yeah, they have to memorize what the teacher declare as true and then otherwise they don't get a score even though We educated right exactly exactly and that's very East Asian I mean right but in the new curriculum We're seeing the teachers as a new role. They're Facilitators, they're co-learners There are people who are as interested as the kids with the new developments in the field and when kids Inevitably now when the teachers are saying, okay, this is what and what the kids nowadays are fact-checking The teachers on their phone Wikipedia on Google Everywhere and saying, you know what what you say is not necessarily the case and to adapt to this new Classroom dynamic. We're saying now teachers are just people who have a more strong sense of how to find resources Right on but the agenda what to learn is always Co-created and determined by the students and so it is the same with the government in our new digital nation plan that DIGI DG plus plan The governance model has changed fundamentally as compared to the previous needs the plan in the needs the plan The government are still the rule makers Okay, in the DG plus plan the government are now just like the teachers of the new curriculum Co-regulators what what we mean is that we ask the private sector innovators of what laws are you going to break next? What regulations make no sense to you anymore, right? And then we use those simple laws and designs to Collaboratively test whether this is a good idea to actually break or change those regulations Yeah, so for example, actually the sandbox law for autonomous vehicles is on the public website on V-Taiwan and also on join the GOV that DW where everybody can go and have a real discussion online which will inform our regulatory Co-creation and so the idea is that the private sector says which law should change and then the government's role is to engage in dialogue with other stakeholders with many different ministries with people who will be affected by this change With the local people with the academics and try to agree on something that everybody can live with and so it is the same With delivery when we talk about, you know equal opportunity and delivery to the last mile Instead of the government doing everything we're now seeing the local NGOs the local social enterprises may actually Be better people to deliver those visits and instead of solving the problem ourselves and finish just those KPIs We're now focusing on solving the problems encountered by those problem solvers So again, we move to the second line and then we do a co-creation with the social enterprise and NGOs in order to further Inclusion and so this is our current regulatory model. It is very different from the regulatory model in the past that came We probably has only five minutes left and I think a show of panelists have one minute to do the red box and How how did you picture the scenario in the future? especially on the autonomous driving Areas and why don't we start with Jason's could you that give me as your scenario? Microsoft scenario in the future, especially on the autonomy Face or AI well the scenarios right like I said in my session right the future is only going to be better Okay, and then one thing I just want to add when we talk about job and everything That one thing that is an example to prove that the future will be better enabled by technology Back in 2000 when internet first came up Everybody says internet will replace all the travel agents Not only they haven't replaced all the travel agents, but it completely changed our lives in the business model Why do I say that? Now each individual travel agents they can use the internet to maintain their run rate business Everybody wants to buy a ticket you buy on the phone you buy the ticket, but they use their individual human agents To work on the high-end customized trips Okay for big for better margin for better business revenues, and also because of this model We start to have the budget airlines Because budget airlines now can leverage this model to complete bring their cost down So that's why people in Taiwan they travel to Japan like like going to gao show Everybody goes to Japan every other week. It's because of the technology that allows us enablement So jobs are not going to go away and all the benefits technology brings will only be better And that's how you know we believe the future. Okay. Good carry Yeah, I also believe that the future will be better as long as Just as a miss Tom says that the education system have to keep up with the disruption of the technology And I think that in the future The age just as Sasha also says that in the next five years We will see many many interesting things happen in car industry and the changing in the mobility We are also changing people leave and changing the city and even changing our real estate So, you know that we may not need a lot of parking place And there is no need to on-street the parking space too So people will live in a more healthy and we can have more space for your recreation Not just to let the car be on the road So I think there's a lot of things for the government and the company and the people to do anywhere Yeah, I I think the Mercedes did a great job to define the vision Yeah, see as e I'm not sure how many of you have Read about their slogan see a see a se connectivity autonomous share sharing security and Electric electric car. I think that's kind of what we can dream of in the maybe next five ten Yes, okay Sasha Could you give us your final wish? Well, I'm actually facing autonomous mobility on a daily base I live At the one from community next to the MRT line that goes all the way up here and that line is driving autonomously so It's always a matter of your user scenario and what you want to do And I just love the public transport system over here in Taipei and I say this as a car guy by heart Every technician developer futurist geek by heart Believes That technology will change the future for the good. Okay. I truly believe that and I think When we look at what technology did to us in the last 10 or 15 years That we now have a little device in the palm of our hands where we can access All the information all the wisdom of mankind wherever we are This is one of the most amazing achievements still for me and again We use it in a very common way, right? We don't even think about it. We're basically using a little system It has so much performance Basically to open up the Facebook app or the line messenger And then don't really getting our head around The fact that we have this little supercomputer in the palm of our hands So how does it look like in 10 years? Could she imagine this from where we were coming from when HTC? In the late 90s started to show the first little PDA systems Based by the way on on a Microsoft embedded version at that time or when Apple introduced Almost exactly 11 years ago the very first iPhone or when we had for the very first time 3g or 4g here in Taiwan and we could watch a 1080p or 4k video on the go It constantly changes the way we're interacting with each other It constantly changes the way how we consume information and content in 10 years from now it will also be quite amazing And I'm pretty sure that however we're gonna travel and it's absolutely right to say we need to talk about Vehicles and not only cars However, we're gonna travel if it's on the road If it's in the air, which will definitely happen Or if it's somewhere on the sea We're gonna travel with a lot of technology, right and it's gonna be cool. Uh-huh. Yes I miss Tom. Hey, I do agree with the Alan cake. Well, they are the best way to predict the future is to Try to invent it and in order for the future to be better for everybody involved the creation the invention Need to be participated by everyone. And so I would like to to read you a prayer That I wrote just before joining the cabinets trying to make technology more collaborative more pluralistic And and it goes like this When we see internet of things Let's make it an internet of beings When we see virtual reality, let's make it a shared reality When we see machine learning, let's make it collaborative learning When we see user experience, let's make it about human experience And when we hear that a singularity is near let us remember the plurality of us is here Thank you. Excellent. I will say yes, it's a very inspiring conclusion for the future talks and we thank you for your Patients for last three days, and I hope we'll see you in the near future. Thank you very much. Thank you Thank you. I'll let you think all panelists and the facilitator for the inspiring panel discussion and also thank you


Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome principal program manager of the cloud and enterprise group Scott Hanselman Hi friends. I know hi. I Know it has been a long day. There's a lot of information here It's extremely overwhelming and sometimes hard to process. Let's try to put some of this stuff into context I know that we have a lot of demos. I've got a lot of demos But what I want you to understand is the power that this all gives us as developers this sense of I can do that I can build this I can see how that Snaps into this you can look at all of this as being a parade of demos But for me I look at it as this kind of cafeteria of all these wonderful things that I want to try and I want to Plug together so I've brought you a whole series of demos that are very personal to me about not just stuff You could create but stuff that has been created that has been created with the technologies that give us superpowers Now it is also important to note that one size does not fit all and that's one of the things that makes me happy about working on Azure and working on ASP net is that whether it be tiny shared virtual machines and small websites that I do on the side on a Hobby or whether it be super large machine learning type systems that can put together the power of Thousands and thousands of processors I can go and do that I can run Raspberry Pi code and I can run massive analytical systems in the cloud The cloud that is Azure allows us to do all of that kind of stuff and what I like about it and why I still work here And why it makes me so happy is because it we still there we lost our battery there this this microphone is not powered by the cloud So we lost that there for a second It's all good Is it is an open and flexible cloud it is a cloud that lets us use the technologies that make us happy if you want to use Puppet you want to use chef you want to use mess if you want to use Linux use what makes you happy and That for me means enjoyable development and I like to see these pieces all dropping together because Now I can build things the way that make me happy and I I put that in there I said enjoyable development happy development I want that feeling even when I'm by myself where I can accomplish something go Look there's no one else here, but look I did it. It was amazing that sense of power is why we continue to do this so I'm going to show you some of the great stuff that we've built and Some of the tools that we get to to use now here. We are I wanted to point out briefly that if you go to Get dot ASP dot net so get ASP net You can go up there, and that's your acquisition point That's where you go to get ASP net you can get ASP net for six you can use web forms This is the ASP net that you know and love and you can install that for windows today You can also go and get ASP net 5rc that runs on the dot net core And when you hit this website right now I hit it on a windows machine So it says install for windows, but if you go and hit it on a Linux machine It'll say install for Linux and if you hit it on an iphone It'll say view source and then you can go off and look at the source for dot net This is where you go to get these things now this application that I'm running right here I am going to add some open source software to it now This is an open source bit of software called the glimpse Some of you who are web developers may be familiar with things like F12 tools right and when you are inside of your system and you are doing Debugging you're going to go and set up f12 tools to see your JavaScript and then you saw earlier we had Application insights to do production time debugging, but there's a middle ground where people need a different experience So this tool glimpse is going to inject itself into ASP net we're going to bring up our Public website that we brought up before and I want you to look in the lower Right-hand corner there Look at that This is giving me insights This is actually a little bit of JavaScript that's injected a dashboard into my application and I can see How long the database took I can see what time was spent on the client what time was spent on the server This is that bridge between what you see in f12 tools and what you see in some deep analytics I can even go and hit let's hit some database work here here. We've just hit Some database glimpse pops up. It tells me how much time was spent in the database But let's even go farther. Let's dig in. Let's see what the database query was Exactly how much time was spent on the network tools like this or what make me enjoy ASP net so much This is actually an open source project. We had the gentleman that worked on this join our team and plug this in So now you've got an experience where you've got f12 tools in your browser You've got glimpse bridging browser and server and you've got application insights when it's time to go to Production this stuff is really really fun now if I go over into Azure right now and look at app insights for this website. We'll click on this We can see the application health Seize things like server response time how long the browser page took to load again a bridge between the JavaScript The client side and the server side coming into one single view now This is an application view because this app runs in the web Sometimes you'll have applications that run in virtual machines. You'll have like a legacy app and Virtual machines run anything that you want And when things go wrong it can be a little bit challenging to diagnose because it may not have been an application area in the website It may have been somewhere else in the virtual machine This is a azure Diagnostics that allows me to look at the failures in this legacy application. So here's some failed requests You can see the different requests I can see that we have a exception here See exactly when they happen I'm gonna pick one of these exceptions and see what's going on and It's interesting because I'm seeing JavaScript on the client so that says that something went wrong in the browser But that might be an echo of something that happened on the server So what I really want to do is I want to look at the telemetry Before and after this moment and see if there's something nearby the smoking gun So here I can see five minutes before and five minutes after I can see that we are Processing tracing data here 10% and Then suddenly I can see both an exception within a dot net application or even go down into Unmanaged code click on that and get the details that I'm gonna need to solve that problem When these things go wrong, I'll get an email And I can go directly to that from the email So I got a notification that this went wrong I can go and say click on the application portal and go right to it So you're getting a full lifecycle there to debug the issue that you that you might have Let's switch over to the slides here for a moment So we hear a lot about virtual machines and websites and it can be a little overwhelming because there's a lot of acronyms There's I ads and paths and there's all these TLA's right these three-letter acronyms I like to look at it like this. There's virtual machines that you own you manage you make one you own it It's like a puppy. You have to keep it alive. You are now responsible for this virtual machine You have to run Windows update on the puppy Websites you don't have to worry about those things the operating system handles it for you Now there is this middle ground Where you have these stateless virtual machines where Azure manages the update and you have still full power so that's a nice place that sits between platform as a service and Infrastructure as a service pads and I ads There's also this new thing called service fabric because sometimes when you model large object oriented systems You can't just go and make a million of some kind of an object and have them all have state and that's why we keep oscillating as a Industry between object oriented and service oriented and we're going back and forth about what the right thing to do is Sometimes it's just nice to model a million of something and have those million objects have state But you also want to deal with the life cycle management of those objects But then you have to think about versioning these stateful services these micro services are what we want to write but it's hard Service fabric allows you to do that and one of the ways that I like to look at it It's platform as a service is kind of like a hotel room like the one that I thrashed Down down the street because I'm a rock star and I don't have to worry about it because it's platform as a service Someone's going to put that back together Unlike the virtual machine, which is my home where I have to go home after this and clean the gutters because I am Responsible for that space Service fabric is kind of like those little Japanese capsule hotels where this is a little bit of space It's very stateful and it's handled for you, but you don't worry about the larger system You just do your job you sleep and then you leave the capsule hotel So it's kind of like you know renting a small room you get many things you get life cycle management I'll show you what that means.  Do you have to bring the system down again? But you're managing all this state. How do you deal with that? It's also important to point out that service fabric can run on windows in Azure or on another cloud If you want to run it on windows in Amazon you can do that and in the future perhaps on Linux or in a hosted cloud It's totally up to you. So let's see an interesting example of what the fabric can do and we had talked about How it's this is a health clinic right and we've got all of this iot data that's flowing in I've actually got a band on and we're going to pretend that there are people with bands on out there in the world So we've got thousands of thousands of bands all providing data and they're flowing that into the fabric This is all real this is in fact running on 40 virtual machines And in this case here it is modeling a hundred thousand bands and it's going to continue to add bands to this system now I wrote an algorithm to express the stress level of the people Just want to get a sense of America's stress Unfortunately, I did a lousy job and I only made three like stops. It's like black, which is not stressed Green which is like medium stress and high which is like either stressed or dead But it didn't make a very attractive Map here But the system is working How do I upgrade this system with 10 million health reports and a hundred thousand bands all at the same time? what I want to do is Take this system and upgrade it. I've made some changes here. This is where we send the health report and where the doctor Gets the health report back from the band in fact the doctors are what they call actors in the actor model and Each doctor is an object. So we're really talking about a hundred thousand bands objects and fifty thousand doctors across 40 virtual machines What I'm going to do is I'm going to go and publish this and I have Enabled this Configuration I plug the configuration of the surface fabric into my system So I actually made a new algorithm that I'm going to call new algo I made it in code But I'm going to make this change as a configuration object and I'm going to just bump the version of this and I want to point Out again each object is a real thing like doctors are something and bands or something There's hundreds of thousands of objects running right now, and I'm going to hit publish and you have to think about this from A different layer of abstraction before I sent a single website to a single docker container Here I'm thinking about this business object this band or this doctor And I'm going to send that out to 40 virtual machines, but I don't really want to worry about 40 virtual machines Do I right? I want to worry about The business problem the higher level of abstraction. I want to be able to go into a Explorer like this and see These are the apps they run on n number of machines I don't really know how many machines as many as is needed and when we see the upgrade starting you see that the current version Here we go upgrade progress What we're going to see as the upgrade proceeds is the objects actually update in Production so right now there's a moment where part of the objects are version one and the other one's on version 1.0 point 1 And that is rolling out throughout the entire thing while we still make new objects So we're actually modeling in this case already 11 million health reports from bands across a hundred and ten thousand doctors And this application continues to roll forward to this new version So this is a higher level of abstraction that we can we can think about and it's enabling a whole new class This is absolutely real 40 virtual machines updating all in Azure Cool, I know it'll take a minute for that to soak in it's okay. I don't feel bad No, no, that's okay So so let's talk about this That's a pretty cool map a lot of amazing stuff happened You know that's that's that's amazing, but what what did we actually solve? Okay, so This models these Internet of Things objects, I've actually got a couple of devices plugged into me right now I've got this band. This is real and it's modeling my it's looking at my heart rate But I'm also a type one diabetic and I've been diabetic for 20 years One of the things that every diabetic does when they become diabetic is they try to solve this problem Usually with Microsoft Excel, but at some point they try to figure out well, I'm diabetic and I'm an engineer Let's plug some wires together and see what we can do So when we say the Internet of Things, I think it's great that you the normal sugared people You know you have your Fitbits and we think that's adorable, but but I have You know an insulin pump and that insulin pump is plugged in There's the insulin pump and it's plugged into my arm. It's 24 hours a day and that talks to a system Here is a CGM. That is my actual live blood sugar right now Now you see how it's kicking up there a bit. That's because of stress That's actually plugged in down here in an implant in my side, sorry to show you my chubbiness and This is real when you hear Internet of Things you think Fitbit and you think Raspberry Pi, but I think this Okay, and we've plugged this into some cloud systems that I want to share with you while the Internet of Things is fun Things like Raspberry Pi is this is great This is a Raspberry Pi and this is an Internet of Things enabled one We've actually got some C code on this that is talking to this temperature sensor So what does that temperature sensor look like? Let me switch over To some code here and show you This is some C code inside of Visual Studio. This is the low-level stuff C code makes your eyes blur a little bit sometimes what you need to know People who are wearing suits is you've got IOT hub and you have Azure devices So the takeaway there is that that's cloud enabled But for the developers that think this is crazy I want you to notice that we've actually got a Visual Studio plug-in to do remote debugging of things like Raspberry Pi's in Visual Studio, so whether it be high-level Updating hundreds of thousands of objects or whether it's low-level and doing remote gdb debugging to a Raspberry Pi We can do that now. Let's talk about my system Let me bring back to the slides here for a moment This is overwhelming. It's Azure right to all these icons. What's going on? It's all these people that are doing all of these things. Well, let's talk about me and the system that I'm building That's me in my shirt I've got my band the band goes to Microsoft Health that goes ultimately into storage My glucose system actually goes up into an API and I pull that data in as well Because that's personal to me. I've got my heart rate over years I've got my blood sugar over years. What can I do with that? Well, I'm going to show you some visualizations some graphs I'm going to plug things into office and see if Azure machine learning can answer some really interesting questions About me and my health and this is all live and this is all real So let's come back over to this machine here This is a system called night scout. This is an open source Node application that is running in Azure and this talks to my CGM my continuous glucose meter And I want you to point out a couple of things here this is the first presentation today and this is now That is a real-time System that is showing my blood sugar and one of the things that happens is not just that I drink orange juice Which by the way I have in case I pass out But also stress stress dumps glucose into the system And this is just one of the things that I have to deal with when I'm managing my blood sugar And actually I'm not sure if the guy can get a tight shot of that But this just popped up and it will appear in the the cloud. It's warning me that I'm now going high So in a second the website is also going to announce and then I'll get a notification on my band And on my watch and then people are going to start calling me and then it'll be scary So there we go notifications just showed up So let's talk about how that notification did in fact shut up So I've got a band and this is some data in the cloud. How do I see that? Well, it turns out that the band Can talk some JavaScript. I can take JavaScript out of the band This is up at developer.microsoftband.com you may have a band you may not be a programmer But you may have a url that points to some JavaScript or a blog or some XML and you want to create a tile I made one for my blood sugar So now I've got night scout on my system and I can see my blood sugar right there What's interesting about this is that I can use this visual designer But I can also Look at the manifest directly and look at this That's the code there sugar is high if it's over 150 Notification and then I'll get a notification on my band This could be done with a build server whether you want to water your plants Whatever that is the personal internet of things and that's what makes me happy But let's think about this once my blood sugar is in the cloud. What else can I do with it? Well, I can send notifications My wife can be concerned. She's probably going to be calling in a moment to make sure that I'm okay But this is part of the process. Remember how I said I want to analyze this stuff in excel Well, it turns out that I'm not very good at vba visual basic for applications, right? remember that 80% of the world's business logic runs in excel, I think that's a fact and In fact, there's an excel j s api javascript api for excel I can write an add-in for excel In javascript using the web technologies that I know how to make so we went and we made the the Hansel sugars project and I'm going to actually show you Some of the code here in just a second here we go Where we're going to populate a table in Excel using javascript using web technologies and what is exciting for this exciting for me about this is that I Didn't know how to do this before you see I'm a web developer But now I can go in here and put it in my target range hit refresh And now we're going to go and talk to the back end system and then dynamically populate a chart in excel of my blood sugar That I could then send to a doctor or my wife you have to think about the sense of power and enthusiasm that I suddenly have For excel which I did not care about before I'm a web developer That's a web application in pain there And it works in excel online and one day it'll work in excel on an iPad like Once you learn how to use one Lego piece you can then plug them into other stuff So it's extremely heartening for me to be able to do this and again if my blood sugar isn't interesting to you And it shouldn't be maybe some hobby of yours or something at work or some Inspiration will come into your mind and you'll think about how you can plug these things in together That's what's so exciting about this. So I've got all my blood sugar in real time. I can collect it into the cloud What else can I do with it? Let's switch over to another machine here. I'm going to switch over to a a Mac This is a Mac running VS code and this particular Mac is got the code to collect my data from the oops From the health API Okay, so we're going to go and make restful API calls be standard API calls off to Microsoft Health with where this is where the band data is stored because this is the thing that's so important. It's my data It's my heartbeat data. My blood sugar is my data. So once I have that ownership of that data What can I do with it? I can plug in that data and do different stuff So let me see if I can jump out of here. This is gone full screen full screen It can be a little confusing. There we go I'm going to take that data I'm going to pull it out of the Microsoft health API and this is a storage explorer The reason I wanted to show you this on a Mac is that this is the Azure storage explorer that we've released that is cross platform We're looking at the CSV files of my blood sugar data as it's sitting in the cloud I'm seeing my heart rate data. Pardon me. I'm going to hit download. I'm going to throw that on The desktop watch the right side Now I have power now. I have control now I've got a hold of that and I can run an analysis on it now in this case. I just brought it down to the desktop I could do some test Notification about my blood sugar I've got and I can do some analysis here But maybe I want to do that analysis in a more sophisticated way when you start thinking about the Internet of Things You start thinking about huge amounts of data. I said it has my heart rate Well, like how much is that? Well, I mean is it an average over a minute over five minutes over hours This is a huge amount of data. My blood sugar is doing three or four hundred Datasets every single day over the course of a year. This adds up to huge amounts of information This is where simply putting it into Excel and sorting and going it looks like a pattern Isn't going to be enough for me. I'm going to need to do some machine learning I want to find out about why does my blood sugar go up when I'm stressed out What is Thanksgiving dinner look like maybe I can answer those questions with machine learning? So I'm going to switch back over to this this system here and What I've what I'm going to do I'm going to jump into Here this is a machine learning kind of algorithm that I've put together an experiment if you will to pull in data From the heart rate on the right there from azure storage and the glucose data and I'm going to come up with a stress index I'm inventing a number. It's the Hanselman stress index and we're going to load that data up and what we're going to do is Clean it up do a little bit of normalization Do a couple of analysis run some statistics and then come up with a data set that the result is going to be a Time-based data set of my stress Okay, so that's kind of interesting It's pretty powerful though that But I need to see it over time So how would I express this over time and what value is there in it? Well, there is this API in office 365 and all of Microsoft called the graph API right the Microsoft graph Graph dot Microsoft comm and this allows me to pull my information remember how I keep stressing It's my my blood sugar and my heart rate and my calendar and my email I want a unified API to go and get those things and the graph API You can see there graph dot Microsoft comm allows me to make those requests So what if we looked at my blood sugar and my stress and my heart rate over time Overlaid on an office 365 calendar that could give us some insights and again I don't know anything about this stuff. This is what's so important and why as a developer. This is so exciting I know JavaScript. I know the web. I know C sharp and now I'm feeling comfortable about the cloud But when I say when I see hey, this is an API and it uses JavaScript and I can access all of the graph data in Microsoft That's amazing. That's that's a playground of excitement. So I can go and build this Get a start date and an end date. This is all standard Parsing of Jason parsing of JavaScript all using the graph API. Let's go and see what kind of a question That that could potentially potentially answer. So here is my calendar the stress index as it applies to Calendar data, let's click on one. This is all real Okay, so here's glucose is updating I can see the different rehearsals and I can see heart rate and sugar and stress changing I can actually run queries and see the result of that machine learning and ask the really Burning question the question that we all have which is what is the most stressful person in my life that is causing these problems And raising my blood sugar It is a really really great time to be a developer. I can put stuff like this together now It is an extremely personal time. It is extremely empowering time You know how we keep telling everyone, you know, teach the kids how to code everyone needs to learn how to code That's a part of it, but we need to teach people how to think about systems how to plug stuff in I don't know the graph API But it made sense because it's using open web technologies I don't know a lot of open source systems, but I'm learning those libraries and I'm bringing them in because they're using open tech Dot net is open source if I have questions. I can look at the docs, but I can also read the source Maybe I want to run a Mac. Maybe I want an iPhone I can build those systems with the mobile tools and visual studio Maybe I want to run on Ubuntu then I can use visual studio code and I can write Angular and I can use go I can run those things in the Azure cloud It is such an exciting and powerful time to be a developer right now I really hope that you have as much fun building stuff as we have had building this stuff for you And I really look forward to seeing what you all can build. Thank you very much and have a really great day


Large language models, LLMs, such as ChatGPT, have become increasingly popular in recent years due to their ability to generate large volumes of text quickly. This technology has been used in numerous fields, including natural language processing, NLP. The impact of these models on the public health sector is significant, as they can potentially lead to an infodemic or rapid spread of misinformation. To counteract this, policies must be developed to regulate the use of LLMs in the medical field. Additionally, the inability to distinguish between human-generated and machine-generated text remains a challenge. This article was authored by Luigi de Angelis, Francesco Beglivo, Guillermo Arzili, and others.


Good morning. Welcome to CMC Markets on Friday the 20th of November and quick look at the week ahead beginning the 23rd of November. First of all, get started with the risk warnings and the disclaimers before I have a quick look ahead at what is likely to be a week that could well be fairly high on the volatility front, given the fact that it's Thanksgiving. This week in US markets are probably going to be a little bit thin towards the back end of the week. But before we start on what's coming up over the course of the next few days, think it's important to look back at recent developments over the course of the past few days with respect to vaccine candidates because we've seen more progress on the vaccine front. We've seen Moderna on the Monday come out with their latest trial results which were 94.5% efficacy rates. And that was then followed up by further trial results from Pfizer who reported 95% efficacy rates with very good results on the over 65 cohort. I think at the moment we've got very encouraging news on the vaccine front and as a result, markets have taken some marks from that. So the big question I think now is what happens next because if we look at what equity markets are doing by and large, they've maintained their resilience. The FTSE 100 is currently up on the day after a little bit of a week, a little bit of weakness at the beginning of the week. And I think a large part of the reason for the weakness and maybe the little bit of a pause is that markets and investors are now wrestling with a little bit of duality if you like. Yes, the vaccine story is a very, very positive one. And while we've seen some decent gains in the past week or so, on the back of recent reports about several vaccine candidates, there's the AstraZeneca and Oxford University vaccine candidates, which is also reported to be looking fairly positive. Markets now appear to be turning their attention to much more short-term factors because ultimately, whatever you say about the vaccine, it's very much a deliverable that is at a significant predetermined point in the future. So you could argue it's an oasis in the distance in terms of what the markets are focusing on at the moment. The main focus now is now how do we get to this oasis, how many businesses will fall by the wayside before we get there, and what sort of economy will be left if politicians don't step up to the plate. And this is essentially where we are right now. And I think this is why equity markets are starting to lose a little bit of momentum. If you look at what politicians and what's been going on at a political level over the course of the past few days, there is no coherent response or no imminent coherent fiscal response on the horizon even in the short to medium term. The UK economy is still in the midst of a limited lockdown, as is France, as is Germany, and you've got the US CDC already urging US citizens not to travel for Thanksgiving, which gives you a little bit of a foretaste of what could be coming our way next month unless virus cases start to come down as we approach the Christmas period. So that is what we're facing at the moment. So a good part of the answer to the question of what sort of economy will be left at the end of the first quarter of next year lies in the hands not only of central banks, but politicians as well. And while central banks are still on the pitch, a lot of politicians notably in the US and the European Union have decided to argue on the touchline in a manner that arguably the team is three nil down with 30 minutes to go, and they're arguing about tactics. We all know that the fiscal response is the next key pillar to a decent rebound to get us through this quarter and the first quarter of next year. Politicians in the US are still no nearer a new fiscal stimulus plan. And now we've got the US Treasury calling time on the CARES Act by year end, which essentially means that 12 million Americans would lose their unemployment benefits and less a new fiscal response is put together between the Republicans and the Democrats on Capitol Hill. Now there are reports that the two parties are talking to each other, but they've been talking to each other since July. And ultimately nothing has come about as a result of that. If we move to the European Union and the EU recovery plan, that was vetoed this week by Hungary and Poland. So it remains no nearer being passed than it was in the summer when the idea was initially put together. And yet we've still got rising coronavirus cases, rising hospitalizations and a rising mortality rate in Italy, Spain and Greece. The three countries that arguably need that fiscal injection the most. So the moment we've essentially got US and EU politicians arguing on the sidelines, while here in the UK, we've got the UK government basically putting forward a fiscal plan at the same time as arguing for a public sector pay freeze. You could not make it up. There will be plenty of time in the future to argue about how all of this is going to be paid for. Nonetheless, for whatever reason, the overarching narrative is not about getting businesses through the next six months. It's, oh, we're going to pay for it all. Well, you know, in World War II, you know, we're politicians arguing about defending the United Kingdom economically and militarily or German bombs are being dropped. No, they won't. Deal with the problem as it is now. Worry about paying for it later. And I think at the moment, markets are sort of erring on the side of politicians will eventually arrive at the destination in the end. It may take some time to get there. But ultimately, we're more likely than not able to get there. But at the moment, there is this little bit of a push pull in terms of what's the economic damage going to be six months from now relative to what is the fiscal response and what is the vaccine? So we're a little bit of a, we're in a little bit of no man's land after the initial boosts that we've seen over the course of the past few days. And that's borne out by this FTSE 100 chart here. We are trading a little bit sideways in what could arguably be considered a little bit of a flag formation. So let's drill down into that and try and do a little bit of technical analysis to try and determine where we are from a trend line point of view. So I'm going to draw in a couple of lines here and here through here and also potentially through here, through here as well. Okay, so basically we've got this period of consolidation through here. If we can break it back above 6460, then I think there's a good chance we could go and retest the peaks that we saw in mid-June. That remains I think for me the next key level going forward for further gains in the FTSE 100. So let's just quickly just get short of them. Don't need them anymore. It sort of gives you an idea of my thought processes when it comes to the next move higher or lower in equity markets. And I know that the oscillator is overbought, but ultimately it's what the price action is doing that's the most important. I will obviously rip up my script when it comes to further gains in equity markets if we break below the 13th of November lows here, which is around about 6,250. So while we're above 6,250 for the FTSE 100, the line of release resistance for me is for a move higher back towards a 6,500 level. Ultimately my end of year target for the FTSE is 6,500. And I continue to maintain that target while those support levels are in place. Similar sort of story for the Germany 30 or the DAX. What's surprising, I think what surprises me more than most is the fact that the DAX is underperformed relative to say for example the CAC Caron, the FTSE Mib and the Ibex. Not really a surprise. I think if you look at the DAX year to date, we're pretty much made back all of the declines from the end of last year. That hasn't been the case in the case of the FTSE Mib, the CAC or the Ibex or the FTSE 100. So you could argue that those smaller indexes, not smaller index, but those other European indices have much more scope to play catch-up than the DAX has because the DAX has pretty much recouped all its losses for the year. Whereas so for example the CAC, the FTSE Mib, they're still over 15% down year to date. And I think that is important, which is why you're seeing a little bit of underperformance on the DAX relative to all the other European markets. Looking at the S&P 500, we have broken above the previous highs, but we're finding it hard going. It's this 3600 level and I think to really gain confidence that we're going to see further gains on the S&P. I really want to see a big consolidated push above 3600 and for us to sustain that move above it. So we can see here that we did close above it, but ultimately we weren't able to consolidate those gains. So I would ideally want to see a weekly close above 3600. The Nikkei is broken to the upside, but it's been the only index to do so. We can see that based on this particular chart here. So we could actually come all the way back to 25,000 to 24,500 on the Nikkei without actually undermining the actual breakout higher. If we look at the NASDAQ, again, the NASDAQ is underperformed relatively speaking compared to the rest of the market. And I think that's largely as a result of the fact that we've seen a little bit of an outflow out of the tech sectors or the more heavily valued tech stocks like Zoom or have you Facebook, Amazon and the like, and more money has rotated back into the bombed out sectors. So that would be travel and leisure, retail, pubs on the basis that as long as politicians can navigate a way out of lockdown, we could well have seen the worst of the losses in these particular sectors. So airlines have seen a big rebound over the course of the past few couple of weeks as have hotels and other travel and leisure as well as pubs. So what we've seen here is a little bit of rotation out of the more heavily valued stocks, i.e. tech stocks into the more negatively valued stocks as a reweighting takes place in terms of valuations. So going to be looking ahead to next week. And we were talking about public finances and why the UK government is so fixated on fiscal rectitude. And that's because we've got a spending review coming up and that's due out on the 25th of November. And public sector borrowing is at a record high or a record post-war high. But you could argue that this pandemic is the equivalent of a war. It's a war against the virus as opposed to a war against bombs and bullets. So for me really, I think the fact that we're borrowing are set to borrow over the course of this fiscal year over 300 billion pounds. Yeah, that's a lot of money. But how much is it relative to lost economic output, permanently lost economic output? You can roll this dead over over a course of 30, 40, 50 years. Borrowing costs are at record lows. We're not in, you know, we're not the only one in this particular leaky boat.  What makes us any different? Well, we've got our own currency for a start and we have a Bank of England and a Treasury that are actually talking to each other. So we have a fairly cohesive political monetary policy and fiscal response irrespective of what you think about the actual governmental response, the political aspect. You know, some of it's been absolutely shambolic. But the fact of the matter is we are in a much better place in terms of cohesion when it comes to fiscal monetary policy than the European Union, for example, and the US at this moment in time. Let's not forget that Joe Biden won't be sworn in as president until January the 20th next year. So it's extremely important in terms of the fiscal two-ing and fro-ing that Democrats and Republicans agree something before the end of this year to replace the existing CARES Act legislation. So pay particular attention to that. So anyway, we've got the UK spending review. That's due on the 25th. Obviously, we've seen an awful lot of announcements in the last few days about a green revolution. The spending review is going to be a one-year spending review. It's going to look at budgets over the next 12 months. As I say, it'll flush out. It'll probably flush out last week's announcement by the Prime Minister of a Green Revolution. And we'll cover key areas like energy, infrastructure, the NHS education, and other public services. What does this mean for the pound? Well, I've got to be honest, not much. We've also got news about a potential Brexit deal between the UK and EU with a number of newspapers saying that the 23rd of November is one of the last possible dates to agree a UK-EU Brexit trade deal in order to get ratified in time for the end of the year. You can believe that or you can't or you don't. Ultimately, I think that it's unlikely that they'll agree something next week. But at the moment, looking at the way the pound is behaving, we're still in very much by the dip mode, very much in by the dip mode. So I think a lot of people have been briefing that the final cut-off date is going to be next week. I have a feeling it's probably going to extend a little bit longer than that. And as a result, I think that if we can say that the UK has agreed a deal with Japan and Canada, we will ultimately agree a deal with the European Union. The big question is really a matter of when. And I think it will behave either side to walk away without some form of deal, given the current economic circumstances that we're currently being faced with at the moment. So for me, the big level on the cable is 133.20. If we're able to break above 133.20, then we could well see a retest of the September peaks here and a potential move higher. The dollar is looking a little bit soft at the moment. Certainly, if we look at, say, for example, the CMC sterling index, that still remains very much in an uptrend, looking to retest these peaks around about 980 in the short to medium term. If we look at the CMC dollar index, I talked about this bullish reversal here. Since then, we've gone all the way back down here again. But I think as long as we hold above 970, then the dollar could go for a little bit of a rebound at the moment. It's pretty directionless. And I think it's hard to really establish any really short term direction. But I think as long as we hold above the support on the CMC dollar index, then we could we'll see a bit of a rebound back to 980 and back to 990. We've got the latest Fed minutes coming up over the course of the next few days. That's also on the 25th of November. And I'm not really sure how much value these minutes will offer. They came, you know, a mere 24 to 48 hours after the presidential election result was known. One thing I think we will need to keep an eye out for is obviously, just prior to the election, the Fed lowered the minimum loan size of its Main Street lending program to $100,000 from $250,000 in order to catch more of the smaller businesses which ran the risk of swarming through the cracks of any aid package. But of course, given recent events, there's no guarantee that that loan, that Main Street lending program will continue after the end of this year. That's one of the programs outlined by the CARES Act. So I think whatever new fiscal measures are agreed, the US Central Bank will still be at the forefront of not only the US policy response, but also the global policy response. So I think the discussions between Democrats and Republicans about a new aid package from the 1st of January next year are likely to become much more important in the days and weeks ahead rather than the Fed minutes. All these Fed minutes will do is highlight the importance of these various lending programs. Also coming up, we've got flash PMIs. Flash PMIs are always important. They give you a decent indication of economic activity at any given time throughout a month. They're likely to be pretty rubbish from Germany, France and the UK, particularly on the services side. I'm not worried so much about the manufacturing side, even with respect to many lockdowns. Manufacturing generally does and has tended to perform better even when the various economies were in full lockdown. There was always a significant outperformance in terms of manufacturing relative to services, but services France, Germany and the UK in November have all been in partial states of lockdown. So the services numbers will give us the first indication this month as to the economic shock in terms of economic output for the services sector. Now in the most recent October PMIs, the services PMI for Germany slipped back into contraction territory of 49.5. Manufacturing was a really blue high to 58.2. So even if you get a little bit of a slowdown in manufacturing, the fact that we saw 58.2 in October was fairly positive. It's really how much further into contraction or Germany's numbers slip into November. In France, similar picture services remained weak in October, slowing to 46.5 from 57.3 in July. They were also in contraction in September as well. So with the rising infection rates prompting localised lockdowns restrictions and everything else as we start out into Q4, it's clear that the recovery that we saw in Q3 is pretty much gone. And now we're into much weaker economic activity for Q4 for November. And that is likely to be borne out in the services PMIs, France, Germany and the UK as well, where we also saw a slightly weaker October number, which came in at 51.4. We certainly won't be in expansion territory for November. So the England-wide lockdown came into effect on the 5th of November. Services is likely to be disappointing. And the hope is that everything will start to reopen again in December. So the Flash PMIs, paying particular attention to, we've also got US consumer confidence on the 24th of November. And that is for the month of November. Still seen some fairly decent gains in US retail sales. You would expect consumer confidence to reflect that. We've got the US economy gearing up for Thanksgiving, however. And I think there is a risk we might see a downside surprise in the consumer confidence numbers. There is expectations that it will remain resilient coming in at 101.5. But when you've got the Mayor of Chicago calling for a lockdown or the rest of November, and for that to cover the Thanksgiving period with New York Mayor Bill de Blasio following suit, then I think it's hard to imagine that consumer confidence won't actually take a significant impact on the back of those announcements by the respective mayors of Chicago and New York. And that won't ripple out across the rest of the US as well. I mean, we've got California as well. And the counties there in various states have locked down. That's got to have an effect. That's got to have an effect on consumer confidence. So that's going to be a very big number for the US economic numbers that we've got out next week. Also got personal spending for October and the US final quarter, final third quarter number for GDP on the 25th. That's not really going to tell us anything we don't already know. Personal spending has seen a strong rebound in the last five months. I think that will continue to be the case given the fact that retail sales have continued to remain strong. So let's have a quick look at Eurodollar on the basis of the numbers that we've seen and are expected to see over the course of the past few days. Again, we're in pretty much a sideways range for Eurodollar, but 119 remains a big, big level on the upside. So pay attention to that trend line, ladies and gentlemen, because I think that's going to be particularly key. Every time Eurodollar gets up near 119 or near 120, there is significant interest to sell Eurodollar at those levels. So for me, I think while this trend line, this downtrend line remains intact, then it's pretty much sell the rally on Eurodollar. Trade the range between these lows here and these peaks here. We're in very much Zedsville, Arizona when it comes to Eurodollar. Eurostirling, again, still in the downtrend that we've been in pretty much since September. The big, big level is 8860. I still maintain that while we're below this trend line here, we remain very much in sell the rally and looking for a break lower. And what could be the catalyst for that? Well, a deal. I don't think we're there yet, but that's not to say that we won't get there over the course of the next few days. But it says with everything with the European Union. Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. We're not at five minutes to midnight yet. The fat lady's not getting ready to sing. She's not even clearing her throat. So at the moment, we just got to wait and see and just trade the levels and try to ignore the noise around the various headlines. In terms of gold prices, we've seen a little bit of a slowdown on the back of more positive equity markets. Again, the big level on gold is this series of lows through here. This is around about 1840. If I draw a horizontal line through there, we can see that quite nicely. There it goes. So 1840, 1836, there are their abouts. While we're above those key supports there, then I think it's very much by the dips. If we do break below these lows here, then we could well see a retest of the 200 day moving average. I don't anticipate gold slipping significantly sharply over the course of the next few days. It still remains, I think, fairly well resilient. On the earnings front, we've got a host of numbers out next week. None of them particularly catch the eye. We've got AR World. They're reporting their first half numbers. Online electrical retailer. It's been one of the big winners in the face of the economic lockdowns. You can see that on the basis of the share price moves that we've seen thus far this year. If we look at that, this is where it was at the beginning of the year. Around about 91, it's now over 400p. So very much a winner there in terms of AR World. So the big question, I think, that really needs to be asked is whether or not all of the good news is already in the price and whether or not we do a little bit of a rebound, a little bit of a pullback given the fact that the move higher has been exponentially significant. Certainly, I think in terms of these highs here, this high here and these highs here, there is potential that we might see a little bit of a topping formation starting to form. It's not confirmed yet, and it won't be confirmed unless we break below 350. But certainly the air is starting to get a little bit thin for AR World. And we've also got the latest numbers from Aviva. And similarly, I think with respect to Aviva, it's their third quarter numbers. When profits in the first half fell 11%, insurance claims rose by £165m, dragged down operating profits. Be looking for news, I think, with respect to Aviva on disposals. In their first half numbers, new CEO Amanda Blanc suggested that she wanted to focus more on the core markets of UK, Ireland and Canada, which might suggest that they may be looking to get rid of the businesses in France, Italy and Singapore. So might be looking for news with respect to that when they report their third quarter numbers on the 26th of November. It's Thanksgiving next week, so US trading is likely to be thinner than normal on Thursday and Friday. But overall, I think this is pretty much it for this week. I hope you all have had a very good week. I hope you all enjoy your weekend. And with that, I'd like to thank you all for your time. Thanks very much for listening. This is Michael Hueson talking to you from CMC Markets, wishing you all a very nice weekend.


We just spoke at Brandon Carter's Renegade Summit in New York City. Check it out. Please, number two, Jen Zwei! Woo! Thank you very much. Appreciate that. Sorry I sold you 6,000 bucks for the Tide's programs. Sorry, sorry. But I've got some other stuff to say. So come hang out with me later. What did you say? The only reason I'm here today is because of you. What about you? There's a new man on Instagram. Instagram, the power of Instagram. My name's James Swanick. I'm from Brisbane, Australia. I'm 41 years old. I was the kind of guy who always had a job. So when I left high school as a 17-year-old in Brisbane, I got a job as a newspaper reporter for a Rupert Murdoch Broadsheet. And I was there from 17 to 23. And I had a job. I had a boss, got in the workplace. It was great. When I was 23, I moved to London because a lot of Australians get a two-year work visa and they can go and live in London, work legally for a couple years. And I went to London. I got a job at Sky Sports. I was a cricket and rugby reporter there for a few years. And then I used London as a base to go backpacking to South America, to do the carnival in Brazil.   I'm going to go live in the America. Do you like my talk? Yeah, I just saw James Toph at a Renegade Summit and it was an amazing speech. And I'm not even a good entrepreneur. I'm just a guy who decided I was going to be an entrepreneur and I decided I was going to learn the way and I decided I didn't want to have a job and I decided I didn't want to work for corporate America and I decided I wanted to have a kick-ass lifestyle and do what I want, when I want, how I want with who I want. And now I have a place in LA. I've got a place in New York. I'm hanging out with Brandon Carter and Brian. I'm looking to leave Brian behind. I've got Raymond Duke over here. Now I'm hanging out with people like Raymond Duke who is a kick-ass copywriter who does copywriting for Tai Lopez. I didn't know I was going to be speaking here today. It just kind of happened the last couple of days in conversation. But just being here, guess what? One of my 30-day No Alcohol Challenge members is right here. Julie, he's right here. Awesome. This is how when you create a lifestyle for yourself, when you do what you want and you help people in the process, life is so good. It's so good. He told us a story that means something to us on an emotional level and I was really grateful for it. It's awesome. Make that decision and then you get a mentor and you get help and you just follow that path. Man, amazing things can happen. Amazing things can happen. All right, thank you. Thank you. Keep going though. I got you on Snapchat. Keep going. Thank you so much for watching this video. Don't forget to subscribe and leave a comment down below. And if you want to learn about public speaking and you want to learn social skills and how to be more confident with people, you might want to check out my People Skills Reboot Program. Just go to JamesSwanick.com forward slash people. There's a link down in the about section. Please do subscribe and share this video and I'll catch you on the next one. Click on the links down there. Go on. Do it now. I'll wait for you. Snapchat. Snapchat me. Snapchat me.