Welcome back to The Breakfast on PLOS TV Africa and thank you for staying with us. Our next major conversation this morning is going to be, of course, reactions to President Obama de Boiri's statements yesterday where, of course, he threatens to deal with those who are misbehaving and, of course, have forgotten what happened in the Civil War and some of all of that. He also spoke about INEC offices being destroyed and said that they will support INEC and provide everything necessary for the elections to still hold in 2023 and there will be no third term according to, you know, the statements from the President. We're speaking this morning with Ikemesit F. Young, the head of research, SPM Intelligence and also Nikolas Ibekoe, an investigative journalist. Good morning. Thanks for joining us. Good morning, gentlemen. Good morning. All right. I'm going to start with Mr. Ibekoe. The reactions to the President's tweets, mostly on social media, for those who didn't also see the video clips, have been, of course, very, very loud. A lot of people have complained, you know, that it didn't seem presidential, you know, to put out a statement like that. Do you agree or do you think that, you know, this was necessary with regards to the events in the South East in the last few weeks? Well, it was not only unnecessary. I think it was a reprehensible statement that the President put out. Yes, there have been insecurity in the South East. People have been killed. Most of these killings have been blamed on the unknown government, but I basically think that it's something like an unknown government. These are those IPOC or ESN, which is the IPOC militia carrying out targeted attack on police stations and INEC offices, which was the reason why the President tweeted in the first place, the reason for the meeting from which he tweeted. But going back to the President's statement, it is quite unpresidential. This is quite the reprehensible. I think every Nigerian should come out and condemn the statement because we need to break down that statement to understand what the President was trying to do by putting out that statement. The President was going back 50 years back to, so, unarguably, the Nigerian Sardis history. I mean, this is the darkest history of the country, the Civil War. We've not had anything as bad as the Civil War. He went back that far to break that statement.  What he was saying, basically, was that a war that is generally referred, I mean, considered to be a genocidal war, over three millions evils. I mean, over a women number of them were civilians. Over 90 percent of those of that number were civilians, were killed. Most of them died of starvation. And it was not a starvation that was, let me say, it was a deliberate state-sponsored starvation then. He was going back, there was rape, there was total destruction of Igbo Heartland. And the President is going back to make reference to that. And look at his choice of war. We would teach them in the language they understand. What do they mean by that? Basically, he was saying that, oh, older Igbo's did not tell the younger Igbo's the horror of the war. We will revisit that war. We will revisit the horror of that war to them so that they can know what that means. And it's basically what the President is saying. And this is a country that is a deeply divided country. And any same person at this time should be seeking reconciliation, should be looking at building bridges rather than deepening the division that has turned the country into the security mess that it is right now. So there is no, I don't know where those who think it was presidential. I don't know what they were reading. It wasn't written in Eskimo Spanish. It was written in English.  It wasn't a clear court statement that the President made. I mean, let's not, I heard when people started beating about the Bush. It was bad. It was reprehensible. It was not nowhere around. There's no way to look at it. There's no positive you can take from that statement. Honestly, I don't see. Okay. Let's bring in Mr. Effion. Mr. Effion, can you hear me? Yes, I can. Okay. So the newspapers this morning were flooded with statesmen from President Mohammad Buhari.  But should Nigerians find any sucker in those messages? If recent experience in terms of how the conduct of security of the security authorities have been, right, in terms of countering these elements, then I don't think that there is much space for, you know, anyone acquiring any sort of comfort. The fact of the matter is that you are dealing with a, we are in a multi-dimensional, you know, security paradigm, right? Right now, where the country is confronting at least seven significant security threats. And each threat has its own unique profile, right? And demands, you know, it bespoke, right?  But what you've seen from policy makers, you know, primarily, you know, chaired by the President, right, is that there appears to be a one-size-fits-all approach, right, to our security problems. And that is, you know, that leaves a lot of, that leaves a lot of room for comfort. In a region like the Southeast, which, you know, has a historical hangover, right, with, you know, how the deployment of violence, you know, has led to the achievement of certain political outcomes, right, historically. You would have expected that the tone, right, of the President's comments would have been attuned, right, to that heightened sense of sensitivity. The Southeast isn't like any, you know, other region. Probably you could argue maybe the South-South comes close, right, in terms of, you know, how organized and state-sponsored violence has been consistently deployed against residents, you know, of that region. And you'd expect any Nigerian President, and not just this President, but any Nigerian President who has the slightest understanding, right, of, you know, this country's historical context to be acutely aware about how he communicates his priorities, right, to, you know, and concerning that region. I didn't see that from the President's comments yesterday. And so, furthermore, you're also dealing, right, with a President, right, that has the fundamentally skewed perception, right, of how security issues should be addressed.    And let's take note of the fact that the President really speaks out on issues concerning security. So anything which, you know, he eventually comes out to say, right, you know, acquires a heightened sense of, you know, importance, and will be seen and perceived, you know, by Nigerians, right, with a higher degree, you know, of sensitivity, and for him to have come out and said the things he had said, the way, you know, he said them, right, in the context and the manner in which he said them, on the platform in which he said it, right, just, you know, is a classic textbook case of, you know, how not to understand and how not to communicate your non-understanding of a very, very sensitive situation. All right, back to Mr Aibikwe. Is there a possibility that maybe people are misinterpreting the words and the tone with which the President spoke? That's one. And then second, what are your biggest fears with regards the actions that can be taken after such a statement is made? What are the fears that people across the country, maybe particularly in the Southeast, should have with the President drawing up narratives from the Civil War and saying, you know, that they would be taught lessons or they will be treated in ways that they know best or they understand. What fears do you have as a citizen? Let's take the part of people misinterpreting what the President has said. Because, I mean, the thing with most people is that there is always a pattern. I mean, most people, as human beings, we work with our pattern.  Most people take their statements at the face value and try to interpret it. But let's go back to what we have seen. Since six years ago, that this President has had this warning, what has been his response to security issues in the Southeast. It has been heavy handed from the World Goal. Let's not joke about this. This is not the first time the President had made reference to the Civil War and the role he played in the Civil War in relation to security challenges in the Southeast. This is not the first time. This is just the most egregious of all of those statements that he has made. Now, let's go back to his response. What has been his response? His response has always been that of deploying the military, deploying soldiers. We have to forget that very recently, the intelligence of police basically gave policemen a blank check to shoot at anybody in the most case. That is in the Southeast. That is the epicenter of these violence in a way. He gave the police, and he told them that when a question of human rights abuses arises, that he knows what to do to handle all of that. That is the recently appointed IG of the police, who reposts to the President. So let's take it that he is commander in chief. He will not make those statements if he hasn't gotten the backing of his boss to say go and do this. Now the President is coming out to say this. So there is no ambiguity here. Okay. Now, for those in the Southeast, if I was in the South, because the Southeast is caught in a whirlwind of violence, Namdi Khanu and his Ethiopian militia are also perpetrating violence. That is here. We saw the sit at home order. I can tell you for a fact that this is not the first time Namdi Khanu will call for a sit at home order. Why is it that the sit at home order this time was too tough? And why is it that the other sit at home orders have not been that successful? You know, the only changing dynamics here is the erosion of the militia ASN, iPod militia ASN. It has gone around causing mayhem in different people and creating fear. So people sat down at home not because they didn't want to go and do their business or something or because they support Namdi Khanu that much. If you go to the Southeast now, people will tell you that people are worried that Namdi Khanu and iPod are bringing violence to his home state, to his home region. People are basically worried. A lot of people will tell you in hot voices. I mean, a few weeks ago I traveled around the Southeast and people would tell you in hot voices that they are worried that they literally don't support ASN. But what do they do? People can come out to challenge Namdi Khanu because even the security forces that should protect people are even under attack by the ASN. They can't even protect their stations. So where do you go to? So if I was in the Southeast right now, I would be very worried. We have seen Operation Python Dance, Ego E.K. have one, two videos. So now we have an Operation Restore piece or something, which is a little bit mild in this language. But it is still the same thing. It is Restore piece.  And don't forget that the context says that the Nigerian security is like, I mean, they act like capital. When you see a problem, they think hammer and they think nail. Just hit it on his head. And it's the only solution they have to solve in any case. Force, force and more force. If that more force is not enough, should put the force and add more force. But that is what the Nigerian security operative understands. I need to ask you this question because I want us to take a look away from what the president is saying to what he is doing or not doing. We know that the president has, you know, military experience, military background. And when he came into the country, you know, he rode in the manifesto of tackling corruption and fighting insurgency and insecurity. But looking at how security has worsened since President Mohammad Ubu Harry became president in 2015, would you say you're maybe shocked or disappointed to see that despite his military experience, he doesn't seem to have a grip on security? I'm not shocked at anything this president is doing. I'm not shocked. Some of us know that this government was going to be an abysmal failure. I mean, it goes back to patterns again. People don't understand this pattern. I mean, go back to the first coming of Mormon February as the military era. That was until now, that was the time we faced the worst economic crisis in this country, rice, sugar, everyday staple, what will ration. I mean, people queue up to get ration, to get ration of rice and sugar in the past. This happened under Ubu Harry. Let's not go into all of that. But again, what we are seeing here is we are seeing a man who basically is he has failed. He can't take care of security in the North East. The whole of the North West is being run around by terrorists. That's what we call bandits. Look at South East. Namdi Kano has become the most influential person in the South East and his ESN people are spreading the campaign of fear, I mean, among the people. The police and the army are in five and six. Nobody, I mean, are in six and sevens. So nobody knows what is happening. It's a total fear. I am not shocked. I am really, I'm not sure because go back to Warren. What has it, what, I mean, when he left, what did he do since he left as a military leader in the 80s? What did he do to update his knowledge? Is he in tune with modern solution of problem solving or conflict solving of tackling security? Even the country, the biggest army in the world, the USA, sometimes will suffer that and seek alternative measure to, I mean, to conflict resolution, other than violence. But what have you seen here? Is violence, violence and more violence. Okay. All right. All right, Mr. Ibekwe. Mr. Effiong, I want to ask you this same question to say, how do you score President Muhammad Buhari's hold on security vis-à-vis his military experience? Abismo would be the word that comes that comes to mind. The fact of the matter is that in 2015, there was a unique opportunity at least, you know, if you take the optimistic view, right, about the President for him to, to reach out to every part of this country and to, to build the kind of consensus that would have, which is required in democracies to begin with. But that would have also served him well in terms of, you know, how do you win the hearts and minds, right, of people, not just in the South East, but across the country, right, and, you know, get them on board, right, in supporting your agenda. He has done none of that, you know. He, he has, he has had the guns first, tanks first, military first approach, right, to resolving issues which have structural drivers, which are not violence, which have structural drivers, which are not rooted in insecurity, which have structural drivers, which are rooted in the social and economic contradictions that continue to define this country. He has done nothing to address those issues. His economic policy thinking, which is a feeder point to whatever kind of security containment or countering strategy that you would have had, right, has been peaceful to, to, to say the least. Nigerians are poorer now than they were in 2015, which is say something because we were quite poor in 2015. And so, on whichever lever you look at it, there is very, very little for you to point out, right, that you can use as an anchor points to give the president a good grade on security, on the economy, or just general policy thinking. And as long as this current state of affairs continues to persist, there is nothing to indicate that we, we, that any of these issues, right, will be escalated anytime soon. If anything, we are on an escalatory path. And I think that's very worrying, not just for people in the Southeast, but especially for people in that region, but for Nigerians everywhere in this country. All right, Mr. Ifing, I'm staying with you. I want, you know, your thoughts on the point where it is expected to be the responsibility of the, of the Nigerian government, President Mamadwari and security agencies to ensure that they track down and they apprehend everyone who has been responsible for the destruction of INEC offices and police stations and those attacks. The tweets and, you know, the things that we're speaking about this morning, are they, you know, an evidence of failure in that regard? And of course, taking a totally different approach instead of, of course sticking to what your responsibility should have been. That's one. And then second, speak also on his statement with regards INEC. It says, I have a short INEC that would make available to them everything they need to operate efficiently so that no one would say we don't want to go or that we want a third term. Okay. I'll start with the second point, right? Because the second point is pretty easy to knock down. There are lots of people that have had fears. As a matter of fact, there are people who have theories that the security situation in the South East is in part orchestrated to make the region, right? So inconducive to any form of democratic practice that, you know, elections would essentially be dispensed with or the government would exercise its constitutional powers to declare state of emergency or martial law in part or for a large part of, you know, of the country, right? Come election time. And in fact, the matter remains that, you know, nobody in Aso Rock has done anything or said anything to disabuse that perspective. That's telling, that's concerning. And concerning the, you know, considering the long arm, right, of Nigerian history, that's not unprecedented. And I think that's what worries, you know, those of us who actually, you know, look at these issues or monitor these issues for a living. To the second point, you could make the argument that if anything, the government is walking into their hands of, you know, dissidents and separatist movements like iPod, right, and militias, you know, like the ESM, in giving them a costus bella, really, you know. So when the tone of, you know, the conversation, right, or the narrative coming out of the government is nonconciliatory, is belligerent, is, you know, up in arms and basically telling every element that is countering it, that it's ready to, you know, to use that Nigerianism to meet fire for fire, you're only going to perpetrate and deepen the level of hostility, right, against you. And you've seen this clearly, right? That's a clear trend in terms of how the government has tried to manage the iPod issue since 2015. So prior to Buhari under Jonathan, Biafra was essentially ignored by everybody, ignored by everyone in Azor, ignored by everybody in the South East, ignored by anyone, right, who had anything, you know, close to a political head. But under Buhari, you've seen narrative after counter-narrative, you've seen elements, you've seen efforts through the courts, through the security authorities, first the police and then the military, right, to actively, you know, suppress this movement and that's actually elevated the status of this group, right, from just a fringe non-relevance to a culture which is increasingly like Nicholas has, you know, actually pointed out, you know, owning and dominating the narrative. And so even though they still find on the larger, you know, scale of things, relatively to support, right, within and outside the South East, they've been able to own the narrative to the point where they have significantly discolored the conversation. And so everybody starts from a standpoint of what are we going to do to deal with iPod. They've owned the conversation to that extent and the government is just merely playing into its hands by coming out and issuing these statements, which let's declare iPod and ESM will take and use as propaganda materials, iPod and ESM will take and use, right, as giving more evidence that the Nigerian state is out to disabuse and to counter the legitimate quote-unquote aspirations, right, of this movement and that's only going to lead to more radicalism, it's going to lead to more recruitment on the apart, and it's only going to worsen the overall security picture. So whichever way you look at it, from a message and the policy making standpoint, right, the government could have done a lot better to manage this issue. Okay. It's only if anything, emboldened these actors. All right, I want to follow up on what you just said, you know, how do you suggest the government does about it? What should be the message rather than this, you know, tough speaking, high-handedness, so to speak? What should the government be saying to Nigerians at this time? Okay, right. So even though iPod is, you know, if you look at a broad political spectrum of the issues which are important to the South East, iPod has taken one very far end, right, of that spectrum, which is that, you know, being part of Nigeria does nothing to advance the cause of the Igbo ethnic group. Our best bet is to leave Nigeria, but that political spectrum is what it is. It's a spectrum. They are long-standing demands, right, by all sorts, you know, of political and economic and cultural elements within the South East that have not been properly engaged with and addressed by the Nigerian state. If you go along with what's having that political conversation, towards making concessions, towards decentralizing power to the point where, you know, past centers, not just in the Southeast, but in every part of the country, feel an ownership and a participation in the shaping of their destiny. You've gone a long way towards, you know, delegitimizing the cause of separatist movement. And so in the end, this issue is not just a security issue. It's a political issue. It's an economic issue. And the government needs to begin to engage on those long-standing aspirations and demands. Okay, Mr. Igbo Kuei, all right. Mr. Igbo Kuei? Yes. Do you agree with your colleague when he says that what we actually need is the volition of powers and we need to, the government needs to begin to, you know, dialogue and solve whatever it is that is making these people agitates for a separate country? Yeah, I mean, I just predicted that a minute before I came here, we need to see the narrative from Nnam De Cano and his extremist view. I mean, by using false and jagged root method that this government had done since 2015, we are just playing into the hands of Nnam De Cano. I remember in 2011 or 2020, as a young reporter then, I was traveling to the Southeast and you see the flag of Massov, the ID, the Biafran flag, all over the Southeast on the major roads. But the Biafran architecture was not, I mean, was not the major issue there. That was Massov, but people didn't take them for, I mean, people, they had their people, like Ikemesi said. This was a fridge group. They never got out the kind of support that they needed. But look at what has happened since we decided that we have to squash them by all means and all of that. So I think we should be breathing bridges now. See the narrative from, because there are moderates, there are people in the Igbo Heartland who are concerned, who have, like Ikemesi said, have also said, who have also given, there's a long list of concerns about magnetization, about stuff that Southeast people have been asking for several years, even before the government. Has this government made any moves to address any of them? No. So the only thing it does is to use force and it's not going to work. So, so, Mr. Ibekwe. Mr. Ibekwe, other than violence or force. Mr. Ibekwe, I want you to also then speak on Namdi Kanu and, you know, ways that he can put out this message, you know, in a, you know, a lot better. The ESN, Stroke IPOB doesn't necessarily have a voice in the Southeast or anybody who speaks for them. There's a certain Ima powerful that once in a while puts out statements, you know, but there's nobody who can speak on their behalf and say, yes, we are responsible for the attacks in the Southeast or no, we have no hand whatsoever. We're not a military militarized group. We don't have, would you know, arms and ammunition. These attacks are being carried out by other elements and, you know, we are, of course, being painted as the perpetrators. So do you think that that is necessary? Do you think that Namdi Kanu himself, you know, should be able to change the tone of his speech? And also the responsibility of the Southeast leadership, governors, House of Assembly members, National Assembly members, I beg your pardon, and also their traditional leaders at a time like this. Arnaz and Liko and the likes. Where do they come in? Let me quickly dispel one misconception. Namdi Kanu has made statements repeatedly and he's still making statements about the nature of these attacks, about how they are, how they should be carried out, and how they should be done. There are statements all over the internet of him being saying that, I mean, soldiers should be killed, police officers should be attacked. So there is no, there is no confusion about who is responsible for all of this. Those who are saying that because they have not come to claim responsibility for particular, I mean, specific attack, it doesn't mean that they are the ones are just burying their head in the sand like ostrich. I mean, the thing here is, again, the other thing again, Namdi Kanu is not somebody you can have a conversation with. I mean, have you tried to have a debate with any, an iPod member, even in Lagos? Yeah, I have tried. It's a dead end. They are impossible to reason with. So we are not going to talk to Namdi Kanu and his supporters. Rather, we are going to seize the narrative from him by boycotting him and by creating other channels, other incidents. I mean, what Ikemechi just said, by addressing some of these concerns that have been there for years, but start to do all of that. This office has companies of several things. Yeah, but who should do that? And that's the reason I'm asking about South East political leadership. Nobody should do that. The government should do that. But the government has ignored this order. I mean, these are that concerns. And as they said that, the government has, like Ikemechi said, the government is still fighting the war that ended 50 years ago. Great. So since that has been established, Ms Aibikui, and it doesn't seem like the Buhari administration will be able to understand the perspectives that you've put out, it doesn't also seem like there's a lot of people in the administration who can advise that they take a totally different approach from what they're taking now. What is the role of the Southeast political traditional leadership at a time like this? The reason why Namdi Kanu has also become this popular, it's also partly because of the feeling of Southeast politicians who are endemicly corrupt, who are in there for what they can do, who have left their region to degenerate to this extent. So because the Southeast leaders don't have legitimacy. I mean, in the eyes of many evils, these are the leaders as bad as the Buhari government in the Central. Look at what is happening in emo states. Most of these people don't have legitimacy. They've come to their people. So it's hard for them to come back and start appealing to their people. What we can do now is to find influential people who are not in government, who are not, I mean, who are very, very neutral, who could appeal to people who start movement, NGOs should set in there and we need to start creating a different narrative from the one that the federal government has put forward and also the one that Namdi Kanu has also put forward. The people of the Southeast are basically, I mean, between a rock and a hard place right now. So we need somebody to come there and extricate them from that, I mean, tough position that they find themselves. I'm not looking towards the politicians in the Southeast or Hanezi. Look at this statement. Have you seen any Southeast politicians coming to condemn it? Nobody would say anything. I mean, several months ago, they announced that they were going to form a Buhari group. What have they done? Well, how long did they take the Southwesterners to set up a Buhari group? No, no one of them has sent any bill to the set of assembly to legitimize a Buhari group. They are claiming the fire brigade. Just yesterday, they had an emergency meeting saying they are going to do this again. That's what they have been doing. They have lost initiative. They don't have the legitimacy. So it's difficult to look at that. So we have to look at alternative approaches to solving this problem. Okay. Because people are not in government to begin to bring up different narratives from what the county and the government and politicians both in Assawak and in the states, in the government houses in the Southeast are putting forward. Okay. All right. Mr Iwakwe and Mr Effion, we'll come back to you both in just a minute. Let's take a quick break. So do stay with us on the breakfast.


What is going on ladies and gentlemen? It is Hold on. Let me transition It is what is it Tuesday the 13th of February, so If you're in the United States, it's pre it's Valentine's Eve Valentine's Day Eve Hope everyone's doing well It's been a few weeks since I've since I've jumped on the live stream since I've done since I've really uploaded anything to YouTube So I've definitely been very distracted as of recently But I've definitely been keeping up with my trading keeping up with Bitcoin and everything cryptocurrency So we've been staying on top of that. We just haven't been uploading as much Content lately. So, uh, yeah, one of the goals is to get back on top of this ASAP Because there's a lot of stuff that I want to put out there. I just haven't had the time to put it together So, um, yeah, it has been a wild few weeks We've gone from as low as 38,000 dollars to as high as 50,000 dollars yesterday so a very exciting time to be in crypto and And yeah guys, it's it's been crazy. It's been crazy. We were very excited I'm very excited and we've been trading a ton in the discord if you guys are part of it You guys already know You know, we have all sorts of new features that we launched this year. We have We're doing what we what we've always done for the last six years, which was leverage trading signals But then we've incorporated Options so so not options trading directly, but selling options for premiums that has been very very lucrative over the last few months We'll talk about it a little bit more Because we've been hitting at a 90% win rate, which is insane Then we also have the algo signals, which is an algorithm Right, it's a bot that has a certain rules once those rules are met It sends out signals and those have been crushing it as well with an 80% win rate So yeah, so if we've been it's been wild the last to start off 2024 Bitcoin's price has been wild to start off 2024 So so we're definitely definitely been very very busy keeping up with everything and And we're excited to share some of that with you guys today. So what we're gonna be doing in today's video is What we always do, right? We're gonna do a analysis on the price of Bitcoin where we're at Currently what the charts are looking like and where we could be going now to start things off The main thing here that we're that we're looking for that we need to keep in mind is This right here Bitcoin halving countdown guys, we are now officially 66 days away from the Bitcoin halving All right guys, remember this is this is an estimate is not exactly where when it might be but It's so far the estimated time is around the 20th of April, which is only right Right the on 420 on 420 the Bitcoin halving is gonna happen and the previous bull run we hit $69,000 So it'll be it'll be crazy if on 420 Bitcoin's price is at $69,000. I'm telling you guys I would not be surprised if that happened at 69 420 just that's how the Bitcoin community likes to troll I wouldn't be surprised if that's exactly what ended up happening so That's one thing that we have to keep in mind guys because pre halving there's always been some sort of rally within that 60-day period and Now we have institutions on board and they're bringing in a ton of money I think it was over three billion dollars in the first month of trading in their ETFs, which is insane and You can see it's being reflected on Bitcoin's price. So yeah guys, it has been it has been a wild wild Few weeks and let's let's go ahead and take a look here But before we do that, let's take a look before we break down the entire analysis Let's go over the overall market really quick as we usually do You can see over the last seven days Bitcoin has been outperforming pretty much the majority of stuff in the top in the top 25 And maybe the majority of crypto It's up 13 and a half percent versus Ethereum, for example, it's only up 11% and Ethereum is usually out Outperforming right so that means that Ethereum has some catching up to do soon and we'll talk a little bit up more about the money flow in the market cycle, so You can see right now it's outperforming over the last week We have BNB up 6% we have Solana up 15% so Solana has been keeping up with Bitcoin there XRP hasn't really moved too much We can see Cardano up about 8% Avax up 15% as well so Avax has been has been trying to match Solana here and And it's definitely one of our favorite bets here along with Solana here for this next bull run And as we continue to go down Bitcoin cash pretty much keeping up and matching Bitcoin's move there. We have immutable up 34% Optimism up up about 14 15% near protocol up 18% over the last seven days or so So those are some of the top performers here in the top 25 if we look at the top Crypto gainers and losers in the top 100 overall We can see that the top gainer right now is beam up 67% over 67% we can see dym dimension up 46% stacks up 45% Casper up Over 36% about 37% and immutable up 34% So those are some of the some of the top gainers here, and we have a few losers But not too many you can see that we literally only have three projects in the top 100 That are Negative over the last week that are in the red. So and this one actually just fell out of the top 100 It's not one-on-one so So, yeah, so it's been it's been a crazy time and let's go ahead and take a look at the At the trading the economic calendar and you can see today was in inflation rates And they actually came in pretty hot they came in higher than expected So we see in prices reflected a little bit So that you know, we've seen prices go down today so far. So everything's kind of in red and that's and that's basically because of That the inflation rates came in they came in a little bit hotter than expected You see the Consensus was 2.9% and it actually came in at 3.1% So although it was lower than the previous one as you guys can see here. It is lower than the previous However, it was higher than consensus. So, you know, the market doesn't like to be wrong, right? so anytime we have We have, you know, it comes in higher than what the market is expecting You see it a little bit in prices, but since it wasn't anything crazy I think it's something that that, you know, it'll be over rather soon, right? So looking here and this here is the probability the target rate probability So the next thing that we're focused on that we're looking for is Target the rate cuts, right? So remember last year And the year before basically We were just getting a bunch of rate hikes Finally at the end of last year we started getting rate pauses pauses and now we're looking forward for the rate cuts Right. So you can see right now that the next meeting is the 20th of March And it looks like we're gonna stay pauses about 91 and a half percent Chance of remaining paused and an 8.5 percent chance of a rate cut So the market is not thinking that we're gonna get any rate cuts here next month If we go over to May You can see that The the chance is a probability for a rate cut go goes up to about 35 percent. So still They're still expecting in May to again keep rates paused And then in June is when is expected to have the first rate cut this year? So it's currently is it's up to around fifty one point two percent probability for that But again, we're one two three. We're about three four months out at this point So, yeah, this could change and this will change a very very easily depending on what happens going forward with inflation rates with You know with the meetings with the Fed meetings and and all of that So something just to kind of keep in mind keep paying attention to but Because when they do finally when the rate cuts do finally come in It's gonna be crazy, right? Markets are gonna definitely we're definitely going into What I'm gonna call a raging bull market at that point In the markets and the markets are already at all-time highs So we're definitely expecting to see prices go up higher if you have money still parked on the sidelines You should you should definitely be be looking to move into the markets because yeah, even though the economy overall is not Super strong right now You know the markets don't care people just want to see prices go up Values go up and their investments go up So that's kind of how how it looks like 2024 is gonna play out and of course overall and this kind of plays into bitcoins bull run because in April we're gonna have the halving and then after that, you know If we get in the summer we get the the rate cuts, you know that kind of adds on so what's already gonna be going on with Bitcoin and Yeah, you know, I'm expecting definitely New all-time highs this year is pretty much what what I'm expecting And then, you know, maybe even a hundred thousand dollars I don't know. I don't know if we're gonna hit a hundred thousand this year But I know we're definitely hitting over a hundred thousand in the next two years So either this year next year Bitcoin's value will go into the hundred thousand dollar range Let me say what's up to a few people here in the chat We have rivers. What is going on rivers? Great to see you in here again. We have ducky Dave great seeing you here again He said crypto ducky Dave says yo J What a time to be in crypto hope this last week is just a start of a new bull run 100% Dave I agree with you This is a great time to be alive great time to be in crypto and And I love it man bull runs I love bull runs it because everybody gets happy, right? We it's just that energy that goes That that comes into the markets Where everyone is is happy everyone's making money And and a lot of lives get changed so I try to do my part in in that as much as possible by educating and And you know providing, you know kind of showing what I'm doing personally and providing that type of information So I'm excited. It's been a long two years since the since the previous bull run So the last two years have been Have been pretty slow And just kind of all these people saying that bitcoins dead bitcoins going to zero bitcoins, etc. etc Right having to fight them off for the last two years finally here We are back again. Just as we said just as we knew we would always be The ETF Bitcoin ETFs have been approved Ethereum ETFs are going to be approved next. It's inevitable BlackRock already applied for it. We had another hedge fund recently applied for it Guys, it's a matter of time. So You know, I would suggest filling up on some ethereum bags if you don't have them already so With all of that covered all of that out the way Let's go ahead and jump into What this video is all about what you guys are here for which is that Bitcoin? analysis Where we take a look at the chart. So Starting off here all the way in the monthly as you guys know, I love to do top-down analysis My favorite way to analyze the market Because it gives you an overall understanding of what's going on through all the different timeframes, right? So you're not just looking at one time frame. We're looking at Multiple time frames. So I personally like to do monthly. I start off on monthly Then I go into weekly then I go into daily Then I go into the four hour and the four hour. I mean not as much four out Once you go under daily, then you're looking at timeframes more for trading more than anything So so yeah, so monthly weekly and daily is what I like to stick to that gives me the understanding of The overall market the overall charts what's going on with the overall trends, etc, etc And then I could go Into the four hour and under timeframes when I'm looking for trades or planning trades, etc, etc So Let's go ahead and start here at the monthly time frame as you guys can see here We have one two three four five six green candles in a row guys The last time we got six green candles in a row was all the way back in 2020 We had one two three four five six So at the end of 2020 Beginning of 2021 was the last time that we got That basically right though, but the crazy thing is that this happened After the Bitcoin halving right So if we look here, let's see in 2019 so this is pre halving Right like in pre halving and you can see that it was pretty much red most of it, right? And then in January of the year of the halving, which is where we're at right now We had a big green month. It was up 30 percent. Let's see January January we didn't have it was pretty much break even but that's because we had we started this run in September basically so we had September 4 percent October 28 percent November 8 percent December 12 percent Last month January it was pretty much break even but still green. It was plus 0.5 percent and Currently we're up about 15 percent now 15 and a half percent So it's it's been a wild ride so far and you can see that usually It's after the Bitcoin halving that price that we go into that bull market so if we're saying that we're still not in the bull market then Just imagine what could happen going forward. We got a donation here from Ramiro Hernandez. I wonder who that is Ram. What's going on Ram appreciate the donation man? I don't really get donations on this channel It's always it's always nice when one comes through man appreciate it Ram everybody everybody give it up for Ram here in the chat appreciate it man So so yeah, so going back into what I was saying Historically the the Bitcoin bull run doesn't really begin doesn't actually begin until after the Bitcoin halving But there's been so much going on already this year That we've already started moving up. So that's why I think that We could definitely not only not only are we Guaranteed and not only is it only a matter of time that we're gonna break these these all-time highs But we're also going to be hitting a hundred thousand dollars Probably this year There's a remember there's a lot more institution institutional investors and the institution money coming in right now so Things could get pretty crazy As Bitcoin and cryptocurrency become mainstream and you know, there's already ads running on Google ads running on TV about these Bitcoin ETFs Once a theorem ETFs become a thing as well Even more billions of dollars are gonna be poured into into this market and guys It's gonna be crazy. I'm telling you guys it's gonna be crazy. I'm expecting Bitcoin to hit over a hundred a hundred K Probably this year if not for sure in 2025. I'm expecting ethereum to hit maybe like ten thousand dollars Maybe even beyond that So so yeah, there's a lot of opportunity in the markets right now guys. This could be one of the last times where we have Basically this generational Opportunity where we can really make life changing money Encrypto and the reason I say that this could be one of the last times is because With institutions coming in I think volatility is going to It's gonna drop right where I'm not expecting the same volatility that we've had in previous years Once these institutions come into come into play because now we're gonna have a lot of money that'll be able to You know soften basically the the volatility within the market, so This could be the last major major bull run now with the new Institutional money that's gonna be coming in that really pushes the prices up in not only Bitcoin, but all of crypto And this is probably one of the last Opportunities to really make that life changing amount of money just by investing in something and kind of holding it So other than that, you know, you're is gonna be a little bit slower You know, you won't be able to make a life changing money right away in in one bull run like you could in the past But yeah, but but this is definitely I think one of those last opportunities here So you got to take full advantage of this guys. I personally got into crypto in 2016 and I retired I made enough life changing money by 2017 that I was able to Basically retire and I started this brand right where I just started educating on on Bitcoin because I See it as it saved my life changed my life And and I wanted to kind of pass that on to to other people as one to as many people as I could And I started just like you guys get I started with very small investments of a thousand dollars or less and Slowly built my way up You know through through through over time right through one of the one of the first Bitcoin board runs that I ever encountered so Very exciting stuff guys and that's why I that's really why I do this. I don't do this for the money. I Don't need The money, you know from I really don't make money from YouTube So that's not why I create this content Why do these things I do this to educate and to pass this along to as many people as possible So hopefully you guys are able to get that from my content. So let's go ahead and now And and break down what what we're seeing here. So this that I have this red block here that I have Is basically the resistance area for Bitcoin, right? So if we look here We can see that last time we hit this on last month price got rejected very very quickly And we that's when we dropped as low as thirty eight thousand five hundred dollars that was with that rejection at this resistance line and How how so how did I know that this was a resistance line? Well, just kind of looking back in history if we look back in history We see one two three four times price was rejected there. We see one time right here price uses this as a support Once again when we lost is when we lost that as support and we came back We got rejected two months in a row before a big break out to the upside. That's when we set our new all-time highs We use it as support here again here. Look at this We broke above it and in a big rejection down before a once again a big break out to the top Then we topped off here use that this as support So that's why that's how I knew and that's how I know that this is a big big level of interest here And it's because just looking back historically, right? It doesn't take a genius. You don't need to be an oracle You don't need to see the future. You just need to see the past Right, and that's what trading is a lot of trading is not about Trying to guess the future and I know I know like I always see people write You know, you nobody knows what's gonna happen in the future and and you're right Nobody knows what's gonna happen in the future. That's why you don't try to guess what's gonna happen in the future But what we do know is what's happened in the past and by using the past by using his history by using historical data We can make Educated guesses on what could happen in the future So that's why we always look at history. So Now we know that this is a big massive level there, right? So let's let's dive into the monthly time frame now We're gonna zoom it a bit. So We're first looking at the at the monthly now. We're looking at the weekly, right? So now on the weekly we can see a little bit more, right? Things are a little bit clearer on what's happening, right? So if we look at what's going on right now, we can see This big move up, right? We have this massive massive move. Then we had consolidation here Me take this one out We had this consolidation We almost had a break down to the downside But then boom we broke up so This this is a very common pattern. So I mean, this is not a surprise by by any extent This is a bull flag here. So if you guys look up a bull flag, this is basically what it is a big move up impulse move up Consolidation and a breakout which the breakout is a continuation from the previous leg up, right? From this move up then the break to the upside is a continuation. So The way that you would measure this Let's do this together here. Let me grab Where is it what am I looking for I'm looking for a price range All right, so let's grab price range and the way that we measure this From the bottom the beginning of them the initial move up to about the top doesn't have to be exact Right now we grab this and we put this where the breakout occurs, which is right here the breakout occurred at about $44,000 and Now this is this gives us a target and look what this target is guys. This target is about 72 73 thousand dollars. Let me see where it's at. So 72 947 is what it's giving us Let's round it up and it's about 73 thousand dollars. That's a target that This move that this chart pattern is giving us, right? And now we already see the breakout now we saw a breakout We saw it go above this red resistance area Which was between about 45,000 to 48,000 dollars This was a level that I spoke about a lot over the last few months and now we're at $50,000 again $50,000 is a big whole number It's a big even number and it's halfway to a hundred, right? So that's a psychological that becomes a psychological Resistance level right so price is probably going to play bounce around here for a while I expect the range to be between 48,000 to 50,000 It'll be bouncing there around for for a bit and once we do do get a continuation of that breakout Above 50 then next the next main target is gonna be 52 I already know because I've done this for so long and I've been playing these levels for so long But you're probably saying, okay, why 52? Why is 52 the number and let's just before we even look back Or actually let's just go ahead and look back and look at this right here, right? So we have one two three four weeks basically a full month where price was stuck there between Look 52 To about in the bottom of this range was around 45 if we look here What do we see here again 52, right? This is 52,000 if we look here look at this one This is support it bounced at 50 around 52. Let's see the lowest 53 so just just before And once again, I've become here. This is bouncing between 50 and $52,000 as that support level there. So Again, we're not trying to predict the future We're just looking back on history and seeing where's where's that next level of interest that price? Likes that price has it has used as a resistance or support in the past and because that's that will likely play a role in the future and we see it over and over and over again and Once again, we're going to see that again Then that's the next main level here for for Bitcoin once we're above 50 is gonna be 52 So the level the trading range here because remember Bitcoin likes to trade in ranges It's proud right now is between 48 and 50 is what I'm expecting But don't be surprised if that top that top of the range Extends out to about 52,000 and then we could see something between 48 to 50 Honestly, I think once we hit 52 Then it we might not go back to 48 and the range might change to about 50 to 52 But with the possibility of the lower range being 48 So that that's pretty much the range that out that I'll be probably looking at 48 to 52 And that'll and that'll break above that, you know, we probably have 60 at that point, but overall Just from looking at this so we looked at the monthly right we we kind of Figured out what was going on overall then we as soon as we dropped to to the weekly we saw a chart pattern Right, we got this chart pattern this chart pattern gives us a target of about 73 thousand dollars For this next leg up for this next move up, right now. It doesn't mean it's gonna happen today Doesn't mean it's gonna happen this week or next week Look how long this this move took this move took started on the 16th of October and It reached its its top around The fourth of December so that was about two months For this move to happen, right? So in two months in the next 60 days, do you think we can hit seventy three thousand dollars? It's definitely a possibility because it's it's not that much of a reach It's really only a 64 percent move from this breakout point And from where we currently are I didn't mean to move that one see if I can grab this From where price currently is there's only a 48 percent move was 48 percent in crypto in two months That's really nothing guys that that happens all the time, right? So so that's the overall the main target, right? So now we've we've kind of By looking over the chart we kind of have a target to look for a target to look forward to now We say okay, so how can we play this right? So now what we're going to do is zoom into the daily Now looking at the daily We see we kind of it shows us more details, right? So now we're seeing more details of what's going on day to day, right? And that's why we always say that that you know regardless of what's going on Like when we see a drop like this This was a 21 percent drop here that we had over the last few weeks in January When we when something like this happens and you're just staring at the daily chart It looks like the end of the world, right? You're like that's it We're going all the way and that's why people were saying. Oh, no, that's it We're dropping back to thirty thousand dollars, right? So like let me go let me go to replay So when the chart looks like this, we're like wow, that's it We're we're dropping back all the way back down. We're probably going all we lost this with us Support we lost the 50 daily EMA moving average We were losing this support here We're yeah, we're dropping all the way back down to this support and this support sits at what? $31,000 the next Fibonacci level is at $30,000 if we look back recently here We can see that this was a big resistance. So that's likely to be a support So that's why you had a lot of Of people like on Twitter and all over the place Saying that Bitcoin was gonna drop to thirty thousand dollars to between thirty to thirty two thousand dollars I kept saying that's not gonna happen And why why did I think that wasn't gonna happen was because I zoomed out and looked at history. So Let's get out of the replay and Obviously, we know what happened, right? Look at this bounce all the way back up. So When when things are happening like that what you need to do you need to zoom out Right, you got to zoom out if you zoom out and now let's do the replay again. Let's go all the way down To to this candle here So although this might look like now now that we have this there's only want this one candle here But look how much better this chart looks now, right? And if we zoom out even further to the monthly Look at this Does this do you think we're gonna continue dropping? Based on this chart, but there's nothing here that tells us that we're gonna continue dropping at that point so that's why you need to zoom out a lot of times and I spoke about this but historically Last year overall during our move up The biggest pullback. Well, the average pullback was about 21 and a half percent in 2020-2021 During the Bitcoin bull run the average pullback was 21 and a half percent closer to 22 percent. So we actually hit 21 and a half percent So let's let's from the top right here to the bottom Look at that 21 and a half percent. So When we were getting this pullback, I said $38,000 is probably the bottom for this pullback Because one it's a major level historically, right? This is $38,000 To we were stuck below $38,000 for a while before we were finally able to break out above it and three It's a historical the historically Whenever we've had pullbacks or Recently not not over the course of Bitcoin's lifetime, but recently, you know as as Bitcoin gets older and more mature it's less volatile so the pullbacks aren't as harsh as before and Last year the average is 21 and a half The last bull run 2020-2021 was 21 and a half So I was expecting it when when I kind of measured it out It took us down to the $38,000 which was a big support 21 and a half made sense for me So that's how I came up with that with that number But that's why you have to be able to zoom out guys you got to be able to zoom out like today Today is red today. We've got rejected at $50,000 But it doesn't mean we're gonna we're gonna drop all the way back down to 45 44,000. We still have a lot here We just had a massive massive move. So now what Bitcoin's probably gonna do is gonna retest pre a previous resistance, right? So previous resistance is Let me get my brush here we go. This is previous resistance So what happens when you get a breakout you the price goes up comes back down it retest the previous Resistance it's now flips it into support and then we get a continuation to the upside So that's pretty much what I'm expecting to see here a slight pullback to $48,000 which is what we've already had look at the low the low today 48,300 and Then a continuation to the upside is what I would expect to see with a target a possible target of around $52,000 is what I'm looking at. I think at 52 we get another another pullback Maybe back down it could be either back down to 50 for a retest of 50 or maybe back down once again to 48 and then again a bounce in the continuation to the upside so That's pretty much what I'm looking for here. So Overall The target here the potential target is seventy three thousand dollars So so what we're trying to do is really buy on these dips Right because it's not gonna be a straight shot up to seventy three thousand over the next few months And we're gonna get dips so ideally you want to be buying these dips So today we have a dip and the ideal level here for me to enter would be at forty eight thousand dollars, right now forty eight thousand When I say forty eight thousand, I don't mean Exactly forty eight thousand dollars. It could be anywhere between forty eight thousand forty eight thousand two fifty forty thousand even as much as forty eight thousand five hundred so Don't don't come back and say oh forty eight thousand dollars never hit Well, it went down to forty eight thousand three hundred. You're just you have you can't set your your levels at forty eight thousand exactly Because a lot of the times Price is not gonna reach that number and if it does reach it price is probably gonna drop a little bit lower So at that point you want to wait for it to drop lower and then bounce back up over forty eight thousand dollars So that's that's pretty much My ideal buy zone right now though So I would say anything below forty eight thousand five hundred is a Possible area for a long entry right now. I Am not looking to short this and I love I know a lot of people always asking about shorting. I'm not looking to short Bitcoin here At any of these levels, I don't care how big of a resistance it might be I am not looking to short guys. You shouldn't be looking to short either You're you're making trading trading is difficult enough and trying to Open trades against the trend makes your life even more difficult why make your life more difficult guys No need to show here look for opportunities to go along again is what I do So that's basically the only thing that I'm looking at here. So the first entry I'm interested in is anything below forty eight thousand five hundred next entry Potentially above fifty thousand. I'm interested in another move in possibly a breakout above fifty thousand Or you could do a breakout above the previous high, which is fifty thousand four seven five. So That's that's another way that you can play that and then Those are probably the only two entries that I'm looking at right now for this week Because above fifty one even though it is a possible play fifty two is good is definitely gonna be a resistance So maybe instead of fifty one I'd skip it and I do a breakout trade above fifty two thousand So so that's kind of the way I'm looking at it as of this moment Of course this all could change depending what happens in the market What price does etc etc? So I love playing breakouts during a bull market. So you'll see me play those a lot I like I love playing big support areas on during on retest During a bull market as well. So those those are the main two things that I'm usually looking for I'm also looking for breakouts out of big areas big points of interest and things like that as well so Think I've pretty much covered what I'm looking for and what I'm watching this week. Let's take a look at At the liquidation levels and While I do this if you guys have any questions about anything That I'm covering anything. I've spoken about maybe something. I didn't mention Drop it in the comments. This is your opportunity to drop it in the comments And and if I have an answer for you, I'll go ahead and answer them If not, then you know, maybe we can find the answer together But let's take a look here at the liquidation heat map a Liquidation heat map basically shows us where there's potentially A lot of money a lot of liquidity and how or why is there liquidity there? Well, it's either an area where there's a lot of buy orders or sell orders or It's an area where Traders are are putting stop losses Right or it's an area where people are getting liquidated their positions. They're leveraged positions Liquidated so all that kind of adds up to this liquidation heat map That shows us potential areas where There's a lot of liquidity, right and a lot of the times these These these areas of liquidity could play as support and resistance areas as well so what we'll see a lot of the times is You know, like for example right here Look at what when price was here Look at how yellow this was this was a big area of liquidity and eventually price broke above that level and continued up right now The next big bright yellow area of liquidity is up here, which is currently it's about It's almost at it's it's sitting around fifty one thousand seven hundred Which is very very close to our resistance area that we just spoke about fifty two thousand dollars, right? So it's probably only a matter of time before we break this the same way we broke this one here Now if we look for the downside We have some liquidity down here. This sits around see Looks like forty six thousand five hundred area Then we have a little bit more around the forty four forty three and even it down at forty two But as you can see those aren't It is not they're not very bright So when they're not very bright that means that there's there's there's some liquidity there But not as much as there is here the brighter It is the more liquidity it is and usually Bitcoin loves to go to wherever the majority of the liquidity sitting So this is a seven-day chart here that we just looked at let's let's look a little further back Let's zoom out a little bit and look at the monthly Again we can see the same thing here This was bright bright yellow and what a price do it went and broke above it, right? So now where's the brightest yellow part right now as far as liquidity we can see that there's not a lot There's nothing bright yellow like this one We do see some down here down. So this is around forty one thousand here is thirty eight thirty nine Thousand and this is thirty four. So One thing we have to remember is that we're looking at the monthly on a monthly time frame The reason that it's important to know that is Because a lot of these orders could be old right it could be from 25 days ago three weeks ago four weeks ago, right? So it they they might not the liquidity might not be there anymore because it's so old, you know That position might have closed already and and this doesn't track when a position closes It just tracks when they open where the liquidity is or Or when they set their orders in those specific spots So what you'll see a lot of times is on the month monthly time frame every day This will change a bit and you'll see that these liquidity pools Slowly creep up and start following the price So that's just kind of one thing to note there Um, but again, there's not anything bright yellow. We just see these these are a little yellow But these could be old they might not even be there anymore And then we have these liquidity levels that starting to build up above the recent highs here all the way as high as $52,000 which is the next target that we're looking at and then lastly let's look at the 12 hours So there's a 12 hour chart And i'ma zoom in even further because look how small it is we can't even see what's really going on and You can see that the majority of liquidity on the the smallest time frame that we can look at Is sitting to the upside once again. We have liquidity here 49,500 We have liquidity here at 50,550. So that's right above the recent highs Um, and that's not a surprise that we you'll see that all that time on these smaller time frames Um, and really there's there's nothing to the downside. So once again liquidity pools are pointing to the upside which fits Um, the analysis that I did on the chart that tells us that price is going to continue going to the upside So because of those things that's why I believe we're going to continue up at least to 52,000 dollars at 52,000 I think we can reevaluate if we get there The other time that we reevaluate is if we break below 48,000 dollars, right? Because right now 48,000 is the bottom of the trading range for us And 50 is the top but we still I still believe because of our analysis that 52 is uh Actually is the next target and could actually be the top of the trading range and we could be trading between 48 to 52 If we break above one of those levels Or if we get to one of those levels then we reevaluate the charts and we see You know what the charts are telling us and we look again at liquidity to see if you know What the chart is showing if it fits the same story if it's the same story that the liquidity is telling is showing so That that's pretty much what analyzing is is is you know when you're analyzing charts when you're trying to make predictions Or you're trying to play probability You're trying to look for a story. You're trying to figure out what story price action is giving you and then you're trying to put the two together and And and have a find as much confluence as possible to support your theory or support the story That uh that you think the chart's telling you so that's why this is always open to his perspective, right? Everyone's analysis could be completely different just depending on what story they're seeing in the chart and you know What confluence they have so um If you guys remember the the last thing I want to touch on here We had this bearish divergence a bearish divergence is simply when prices going up Right you see prices going up setting up higher highs Higher lows while the momentum in this case the rsi is going low Is dropping down and basically doing the opposite of this is setting lower lows and lower highs so we had that and that's always a a Something to be cautious about whenever we have that in the charts We spoke about that multiple times and we eventually did get that 21 dip um now You can see that we've broken Above this divergence. This was the trend line here that was basically holding price down You can see that we've broken back above this area And uh now if if we look at this now you can see that price is Perfect. There's no there's no divergence at this time now. We're back in sync Um, so we're all good even though that even though price here is oversold right now Um being oversold doesn't mean that price needs to drop. It just means that that's where the momentum is right now So momentum is all the way to the upside. You can see that here price was oversold All the way back in october, but price continued to climb all the way until january So just because price gets into oversold does not mean That price is going to go down, right? So, um, I know a lot of people get confused with that um, but Just, you know, that's something to keep in mind. This is more of a momentum indicator than anything else. So We're in oversold territory right now But we're in sync once these two get out of sync. That's when you should start, um, worrying a little bit But for now, we're good So, um, yeah, I think we pretty much Have covered everything that we wanted to cover today Um, I don't see any Questions in the chat. So, uh, so I think I'm gonna wrap things up. Appreciate you guys for everyone that tuned in Um, we've been live now for about 50 minutes We're gonna get back to doing these, uh, weekly and potentially twice Twice a week. So I want to do one day Bitcoin analysis the second the second live stream, uh, outcoin analysis. So, um, so Today, what day is today? Today's Tuesday. So either tomorrow or Thursday will do an outcoin analysis with another live stream So I'll see you guys there. Appreciate everyone who tuned in rivers. Dave. I see you 100 deaths I haven't seen you in forever. Glad to see you in here again And once again shout out to ram with a five dollar donation. Appreciate it ram um Brendan Matthews No problem. Uh, thank you for tuning in as well, Brendan Timmers, thanks for tuning in deaths What made it hit 50k? It was just time, baby. It was just time Now chat go go back on on the live stream and uh, and and check it out what I broke down Um, and right now this is this is my new target now 73 thousand dollars man So, uh, yeah, definitely go down it go back if you missed the live stream the beginning where I started Doing the analysis. I I suggest that you go back and watch that So, uh, thank you guys for tuning in. I'll see you guys on the next one. As always peace and love


Good afternoon, everyone. I'm Bo Wu. I come from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences in China. The title of my presentation is Decadal Predictions by Las Jai Pes Capital GCM, FGOS S2. It includes three parts. The first one is about the scale evaluations of the Decadal Predictions by FGOS S2. In the second part, I would like to introduce our new enolization schemes designed for the decadal prediction experiment of the FGOS S2 in Decadal Prediction Project, which is a sub-project of CMAP6. Finally, I would like to introduce our preliminary result about how to predict decadal variabilities of the East Asian San Monsong. Firstly, I would like to introduce the design of enolization schemes. This scheme is used in the decadal predictions by FGOS S2 in CMAP5. We use the incremental analysis update scheme. I use the scheme to assimilate observational oceanic temperature and salinity of up to 1,000 meters derived from graded objective analysis data. UN3, this data is produced by the Met Office Highlight Center. Compared to the conventional lodging scheme, IU scheme can keep the analysis increment constant during the assimilation, so it can effectively suppress the noise in the assimilation. We use anomaly assimilation approach, so no clear drift during the prediction, so we don't conduct any posterior correction. Hindercast and forecast rounds follow the CMAP5 protocol. Because the limitation of computing resources during that time, the hindercast and the forecast has started every five years, and we have three members. This figure shows the hindercast qualities of surface temperature. We use two metrics from the IPCCI5 to measure the predictive skills of FGOS S2. The left panel is for hindercast year 2 to 5, and the right panel is for 6 to 9 years. The first matrix is the IMSSS, is the Rootman-Square Scale Score. The high score, the high predictive scale is. The second matrix is the ratio between Rootman-Square, IMSC of the decodal predictions and IMSC of historical rounds. The only difference between these two experiments is that in the digital prediction experiment, linearization are conducted. So we hope that the linearization can bring some added value for the prediction. So the lower value, the higher predictive skills. For the IMSSS, we can find that FGOS shows significant high predictive skills in the ocean, chopping on West Pacific and Atlantic. There's no significant difference between the hindercast year 2 to 5 and 6 to 9 years. But if we see this matrix, the ratio of metrics, we can find that the added value of decodal prediction is primarily seen in the Atlantic, because only in these regions the values are significant. For the comparison, I also showed the hindercast quantities of surface at temperature predicted by the CMF5 and multimodal ensemble. This figure is from IPCCI-5, Chapter 11. We can find that basically, if we see the IMSS, we can find that many regions have high predictive skill, especially in the ocean, tropical western Pacific and Atlantic. But if we see the ratio between IMSC of the decodal prediction and IMSC of historical round, we can find that the added value improvement is primarily seen in the Atlantic, North Atlantic and South Atlantic. In other regions, the added value is not significant. Because FGOS has to show high skill in the Atlantic, so we further investigate the skills in predicting Atlantic and multimodal variability. We use two metrics, the correlation on the IMSC is consistent with IPCCI-5, Chapter 11. We can find that both metrics, the skills of decodal prediction is much higher than the historical round. The red line is the decodal prediction result. We can find that the highest predictive skill is reached in the year six to nine is somewhat different from the multimodal ensemble result. I think this may be caused by the limitation of ensemble size, I think. We also show the time series for the in the class of year six to nine. We can find that the black line is the observation. We can find that basically the decodal predictions result is consistent with observation, but much higher predictive skills and historical experiments. Many previous studies proposed that the AMV is highly associated with fluctuation of AMOCK. We checked the model performance in predicting the decodal variability of AMOCK. This figure shows the clampotology AMOCK simulated by the FGOS S2. We can find that its central intensity is about 18-thread loop, generally consistent with observation. Now we calculate the lack correlation between AMV and Northward and its transport.  We can find that the lack correlation is very high in the South Atlantic and the North Atlantic to about 14-5 degrees, not degrees. It's generally consistent with the North edge of the AMOCK. To the North of this degree, the correlation decreased dramatically. If we see the simultaneous correlation, we can find that the correlation is quite low in the North Atlantic. This result suggests that the AMV is driven by the fluctuation of Northward and its transport preceding its transport. We further checked the model performance in predicted decodal variation of AMOCK because there is no true observation for AMOCK. We used the assimilation rounds as of the vision. We can find that for both correlation and the AMSE, the decodal prediction, the scale is much higher than is much higher than the historical, especially the Hindacast years 5 to 8 and 6 to 9. If we see the time series of the Hindacast years 6 to 9, we can find that basically the decodal variation of AMOCK simulated by the decodal predictions experiment is consistent with that simulated by the assimilation rounds. The scale is much higher than that from the historical rounds. Then we would like to introduce the new scheme designed for the FGOs in the next generation decodal predictions. This is a schematic diagram. We merged EON-OI and IU scheme together. In one assimilation cycle, we first integrate the model freely. This produces the first gas for the assimilation. Then we use the EON-OI. EON-OI is in some optimal interpretation. This is generally the same with EON-KF, but I don't need so much computing resources. We use the EON-OI scheme to generate, to calculate the analysis increment. Then we return back to the start of the integration and then integrate the first forward. In the process, we introduce the analysis increment through IU schemes. Finally, I would like to introduce how to predict the decodal variability of Eastern Asian Sun Monsoon. Because we can see that at present, the decodal prediction shows low scale in the Eastern Asian Sun Monsoon, but high scale in the AMV. If we know how the AMV influences the Eastern Asian Sun Monsoon, we can at least partly predict the decodal variation of Eastern Asian Sun Monsoon. We apply the AMV-UF analysis to the GJA mean low-level wing of the Eastern Asian Sun Monsoon region. Then we get to dominant mode. Because time limits, we just show the simple result. The second mode is highly correlated with the AMV. Its special pattern is anti-saclon over here. In the China, there is a strong north wing. It indicates the weakening of the Eastern Asian Sun Monsoon. Then we compare the results from the 20-year observation launch to check the robustness of the mode. It's fine that our analysis result is consistent with the observation. Now, we show the SIT anomaly associated with mode. We can find that it's a generator, AMV. If we see the large-scale circulation, we can find that wave trend here, mid-latitude north hemisphere. This wave trend is driven by the AMV. Generally, it has a biotropical structure. If we show the added component of the gel potential, we can find that this wave trend is more clear. The vector is the wave activity flux. We can find that this wave trend is propagating eastward along the jet stream. It has wave number five structure. Then we compare the result with GA-55. We can find that this wave trend is robust in different renaissance data sets. Finally, we make a conclusion based on the 20-year observation. The second mode is characterized by SACRON anomaly extending from north east China to Japan with a part of inter-decadal wave trend. We call it inter-decadal CGT pattern, SACRON global telecommunication pattern. Inter-decadal CGT pattern is associated with the forcing from AMO. Considering that the decadal prediction can expand in CMF-5 showing high-scale in the North Atlantic, the result may be used in the decadal prediction of East Asian salmon song. Thanks.


Welcome folks. This is Tom O'Brien of TFNN. We have five days a week. We go seven hours a day. We go 24 hours a day on the internet at TFNN.com. Always remember folks, whatever you think about, you bring about whatever you focus on grows up. Everyone's having a great day, safe day. It's making a great night, folks. And it looks like we've missed the bullet here, folks. Thank God. We still got to be vigilant. But the bottom line is that, you know, it's interesting. The Gulf of Mexico, the folks in the panhandle, man, it's always a trip. And I think that's one reason the panhandle have never really exploded on price. What happens is that, you know, if you take a look at how the hurricanes come in, you know, this one here was coming in, you know, into running into the east. But what seems to happen every single time they hit Mexico is that it's like a magnet and it starts pushing it north and pushing it west. And that's exactly what's happened this time. And hopefully, well, I don't want anyone to get hit, but that someone's going to get hit. But the bottom line is that that's exactly what's happening this particular time. So it's moving north-west still.  You have the power to create. Your power is so strong that whatever you believe comes true. You are that way because that is what you believe. In yourself, your whole reality, everything you believe is your creation.  Knock it wise! Let's take a look at it out here. We have the Dow Industries up 226, Nasdaq up 233, S&Ps up 56. Gold. Gold contract up $18.20 traded in 1965. You get Silver up 50 cents, $25.10 announced. Light Sweet Crew trading up $13.81, $23 a barrel, notes and bonds. A 10-year note, up 23 ticks, trading 1, 10, 12, the 30 up a full point, plus 7 ticks at 1, 21, 05 and King Dollar. King Dollar down 524 ticks, 103, 535, the Euro at 108. The end's trading out here at a price point of 145 and the British Pounds at 126 to 1 U.S. dollar. Offer numbers<PHONE_NUMBER>. Give us a call, folks. I know it's going on in your world. Excuse me, folks. In the world of the S&Ps, let's take a look at it. What do you have? Well, this market's going to go after its eyes, folks. You get window dressing coming. You know, we're in it. We're going to be in it the next couple of days, okay? And you can see it doesn't take much. This buys up $5.71 today. You know, you get an expansion of volume. It's not huge, but it already got into the high volume bar in the way down, which is the 446.77. Just blew that away. So your next one up there is the... Let's put this right here. You're going to see... We're right next to it. The highs of the lows are the... No, the lows of the highs is 451.88. Now, that's going to be pretty easy to tag, man. You know, and what that was all about out here is that you had the jolt's number come out. And so this morning when the jolt's number come out, the bottom line came out soft. And what the jolt's number is is the amount of jobs that are available, and they've been going down for eight months. Now, in this particular number, this particular number came down very fast, though. So the bottom line, what does that do? Well, guess what? Here we go. Go take a look at the Newton-Bahn market. You take a look at the Newton-Bahn market. You're going to see that right off the bat, it took that baby right up. It took the dolla down. You can see that wide price spread there on the tenure. You go back over to the dolla. You take a look at the dolla. And what it did with the dolla is basically failed after... So the dolla had... You know, the dolla was trying to make this swing point, right? And it just missed it. Now, this is where this always gets cool, man, because the swing point out there was the 104-699. We spiked 104-447. Now, we haven't broken the uptrend yet, okay? But we're just about there, man, particularly because what you had out here is this.   You had another doji, a monster doji. That was two days ago. You've closed a little bit lower yesterday, which is an indication it wants to go. And now, bottom line, you get a nice bearish engulfing. What we have is that you get one more day of this. And you're going to see, okay, the way this chart is set up, it has broken it, okay? What I like to see, the reason I want one more of these, I really want to see a break with conviction. You know, right now it will blow it. And a break with conviction is getting another red-accelerated volume, but we have no volume on the dollar. You get one more of those, guess what? Then you're going to start heading all the way down to this 99753. And of course, not once you have it, it's already happened, okay? You get gold and an ABC structure on the way up. Gold took off. You get $18.60. You get 5,000 contracts traded. Just the opposite of the dollar. That's how it works. You know, he's taken a B point out. The B point here had, you know, $137, 167, 176, you know, bottom line. You took it out. So, next move in gold is coming up to this 2028. A lot of moving pots, but the bottom line, let's go to the cues. We take a look at the cues out here. Because what you get to understand is that in both cases, the dollar giving up the dollar gives the broad market also room to breathe. That's how it goes, okay? Because it's not, you got to always remember what the number is. It's what you can buy with the number, right? If the dollar's lower and you still have a higher number, well, guess what? That doesn't mean you can buy more, okay? So what you have here with the cues, you're going to see with the cues, the bottom line is that, you know, you got expansion volume yesterday, not a lot of volume, but you can see when you look at it, the bottom line is that it's, you know, that small downdraft looks to me like we're going to go right for the highs once again, which is really wild in the time frame that we're in. So we'll see what happens when it starts to, you know, basically get up to that level. We get a lot more data that's coming in.  The TLT has rejected lower price, particularly on the monthly, right? And it never made the bottom, you know? Even that you can take it to consideration, too, that the TLT as an expense ratio is .015. So even taking that math into a, you know, consideration, the bottom line, we never made 91.85. We made 92.23, okay? So that's saying that that's also now, you know, step by step. You're only going to be on the way to 109 and we're at 96. Our phone number is<PHONE_NUMBER>. We have the Dow. The Dow industry is right now trading up 233 and as except 241, S&P is up 59. We'll be coming right back. Currencies, commodities, and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity markets across the globe, which is why it's a great time to try out Teddy Kegstad's Tiger Forex Report. Teddy Kegstad breaks down the forex markets every Monday using his 30-plus years of experience as a trading veteran of futures, forex, stocks, and options. Teddy releases his weekly Tiger Forex Report every Monday morning with coverage of all the major currency pairs, including the dollar index, the euro dollar, pound dollar, dollar Swiss, as well as many more, and he also has weekly coverage of the crude oil market and the 30-year T-bonds as they both influence forex markets tremendously. 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Hi everyone, welcome to my tutorial on how I draw faces and in this video I have broken it down into sections Which you can see on the screen so you can skip to whichever part you want to watch But before we get started I do want to say that this video is sponsored by Skillshare and I want to thank them for sponsoring another one of my videos if you guys haven't watched the previous ones that I've done with them They will be in the cards section, but basically Skillshare is an online learning community for creators taught by fellow creators And they've got a range of classes from design classes Business classes and so much more and you can actually get unlimited access to all of these with a premium membership Which is an annual subscription and you pay less than ten dollars a month What I actually love about this platform is that some of the teachers can provide a worksheet or a Project or an assignment for you to do and you can post it back on the platform and get feedback From the teacher as well as from people who are also watching the class So I do think it's really good value for money And it's a really great resource that I highly recommend and because this is sponsored by Skillshare You guys can actually sign up using the link in the description box to get your two-month free trial of their premium Membership I will also list down in the description box some Skillshare classes that I found helpful that you can hopefully watch along with my very own tutorial Because I do recommend learning from as many resources as possible and Skillshare is definitely one of them And once again, they are all in the description box So please check them out now moving on to the tutorial Let's start with drawing the head and I like to use two main shapes The first one being the circle and the size of the circle that we're going to draw pretty much defines the size of the head So the smaller the circle the smaller the head and the bigger the circle the bigger the head and The next shape is the inverted triangle and the height of this triangle actually defines the shape of the jaw That we want to draw so for example for a pointy draw We'll have to draw a tall triangle. However a square draw is a short triangle and the next thing I like to take note of is the distance between the circle and the inverted triangle because Changing this distance can help us create a range of face shapes such as an oval face shape a Square face shape and a triangle face shape And there are actually three main combinations that I like to use which you can see on the screen But for the demonstration, I will be using the first combination and the most common one Now that we have the basic head shape Let's add in the guidelines for the facial proportions, which is the ratio that I like to use so let's start by dividing the head into two vertical sections and six horizontal sections so that we end up with a total of Seven horizontal lines and I've named each line as line one two three and so on so that it's easier to explain But basically line one is for the top of the head Line two is for the hairline Line three is for the eyebrows Line four, which is the halfway point of the head is for the eyes Line five is for the nose Line six is for the mouth and lastly line seven is for the chin Now that we have the guidelines we can start adding in the facial features starting with the eyes When drawing the eyes, I like to start with a basic leaf shape on line four and the height of this shape Can determine how big or how small the eyes we want to draw I also like to take note of the outer point because Changing the placement of this whether it's a little bit higher up or a little bit lower It can give us a range of eye shape such as an almond eye shape or a downturned eye shape And the next shape that we draw is the circle in the middle Which is the iris and of course when you move this to the left or to the right It indicates the direction of the person's gaze And then we also have an arch above the eye to indicate the eyelid or the crease of the eye Now the distance of this to the eye Gives us a range of eye shapes once again. So for example a monolid or deep set eyes And also changing the angle of this can give us either upturned eyes or downturned eyes And the last thing I like to take note of is the distance of the left eye to the right eye Normally this distance is another eye However, you can draw the eyes closer together for close set eyes or further apart for wide set eyes When drawing the eyebrows, I always draw it below line three and I start with a simple arch Then I make one side thicker than the other. That's basically it However, changing the height of this arch can either give us a nicely arched brow or a straight brow When drawing the nose, I like to start with a circle just above line five And the size of this circle can give us a range of nose shapes So for example the smaller the circle the pointier and Narrow the nose usually is whereas a bigger circle creates a wider and rounder nose I then draw two arches for the nostrils And the height and angle of this arch can also be changed for a bit of diversity I also like to draw two more lines that look like the letter C to complete the nose And the final touch are two lines for the bridge of the nose So it connects down from the eyebrows to the circle that we drew for the nose And you can draw this as light or as heavy as you want depending if you want this to be way more pronounced When drawing the mouth, I start with a basic leaf shape With a V cut out on top and a line in between and I draw this on top of line six And the width of this is normally wider than the width of an eye But changing this width basically gives you either small lips or wide lips And then changing the height of this shape can actually also determine How large and plump you want the lips to be or how thin the lips are And then of course you can alter the shape to create a more realistic look of the lips When drawing the ears, I like to start with a line that looks like the letter C And the degree of this line's curve pretty much determines the size of the ear from the front view So some people do have ears that stick out So that will be a very curved C that we draw Whereas some people's ears don't really stick out as much So the curve of the letter C that we draw isn't as pronounced I also draw like this random looking line for a very simplified look of the ear When it comes to drawing the hairline, I have four options that I use to create The different face shapes So for example, we have an arch which can create an oval face shape This is very common We have a pointed arch which can create a diamond face shape A straight line can create a square face shape And lastly a letter M can create a heart face shape However, sometimes this won't even come in handy Hairlines are normally hidden due to different hairstyles For example, when you draw someone with bangs The last thing I like to add to my portraits are circles or ovals And I actually use the circle that we initially drew for the head As a guide when placing the ovals for the cheeks I do like to add these but for you it's optional However, if you've been following my style and my art You would know that I like to add these for my portraits I also like to draw an oval on the forehead just between the eyebrows As this will help me when I color the face in later And then lastly I like to add a circle on the chin Just underneath the mouth as this one helps me shape the jaw And as a bonus feel free to draw the neck For a more realistic look and something that I personally like I draw it almost as wide as the jaw However, you can change the width to make it nice and slender And once you've added in all of the facial features And the hair as well which will hopefully be in another video You finally have drawn a face So when it comes to drawing faces and pretty much anything I highly recommend using references Because reference images are very helpful When you're just starting out to draw And it also gives you an idea of the diversity in faces Face shapes and facial proportions So I do hope that you've got an idea of what the basics are And how you can change that up through this video I also highly recommend practicing regularly To try out other combinations and pretty much to experiment With the guidelines that I've shown you in this video There are honestly no rules Anything that I've showed you in this video only serves as a guide So technically it is up to you whether or not you want to follow them But I do hope that you have found this helpful In the description box are some links to resources And an exercise sheet that I've also included And lastly of course I hope that your main takeaway from this is to have fun Because that's the most important part of drawing Have fun and enjoy the process So if you liked this video and I hope that you did If you found this helpful and I also hope that you did Please give this video a thumbs up Leave a comment in the comment section down below Of anything you'd like to see from me in the future Because I would like to bring this channel back to life Subscribe if you haven't already for more content from me Feel free to share this video as well And thank you so much for watching And I will see you in my next one