Welcome, everybody, back on Siegel Talks, here at the Martini Siegel Theater Center at the Graduate Center. CUNY, another day of the week, another Thursday on planet Earth, another day in the critical zone, as we learned yesterday from Frédéric, the 10 meters above the ground and below the ground that really matters where we talked about, that we have to change our thinking, that like Galileo, who taught us that we are no longer in the center of the universe, Darwin, who told us we come from the apes, and that now that we have to realize we share a planet, we share it with plants and animals, we are alive because of it, and what happens affects us. They are actors and they are invisible, like the virus. One doesn't even know if it's alive or not. It's some DNA traces, but it has a catastrophic effect on our lives, and so many have been talking about this, warning about this, and the Western world, at least, has come to a full stop. The car is still up in the air. We all hope it will land on four wheels, but it can also be a great catastrophe, a crash, and nobody knows what's happening. Really, nobody at the moment can look into the future, so we all in the same boat, we are connected like never before. It's a global crisis. The world has become very small. What happens on a little fish market in China influences that, but also we are in tiny places at home in our apartments, even so we can go out, but we still are connected, and we can talk to artists like Iman Aoun from Palestine, who we have here with us today in week 14. We at the Segal are the only theater institution, as far as we know, who creates new content every day of the week, related to corona and to the crisis we are experiencing. It's a devastating moment for the theater performance community. The first one to shut down, the last one to open up. As many countries have next to massage salons, because it's work with the body, and we realize that our body is that, what rules as we are reminded about it, and it's a good reminder, but it's also uncertainty. But artists always have engaged in the right side, as we always say, of struggle for the complex freedom and liberties, the history of it, on the right side of social justice, and they are doing the same again, and we need to listen to them. They also have to contribute now. They show why art is important. No one at home survives without reading, without watching films, perhaps listening or seeing a bit of theater or music. If there ever was a question, why is this essential? It is answered now, but on the other hand, we are non-essential, we are not out. Already New York doesn't have space, doesn't have money. Now there is no space, now there is no money at all. Everybody is out of work till the end of the year. It's a catastrophe too, if you can do take care of artists, to engage with them, support them there. It's important work, what they contributed over all the centuries, and we have to pay back. Here at the Segal Talks, we do look at what's happening on the world, but also in theater, that new times as Baton Bright said, need new forms of theaters. Theater always has reinvented itself, but perhaps accelerated now and forced, in a way it hasn't perhaps been in many, many decades or centuries. Musk, as we know, are closed for the first time in over a thousand years. The pilgrimage to Maca where normally 2.5 million people go, it's been closed, only a thousand people will be able to come. And we had living through a complicated times again, we thought there would be a little opening, a breathing room in the summer, but news are not good. The United States had 52,000 infections yesterday, the fifth or sixth day in a row with record numbers, how it had never been, not even in May, because of course there's more testing, but it also shows, perhaps just at the beginning, Tokyo, Israel, Serbia, South Africa experiencing big, big spikes. New York City took back the opening of the restaurants of phase three, where they said 50% even could be inside. And they said no restaurant owners who bought all the foods had to take it back. And it's a devastating. Iran is still refusing the lockdown, also record high numbers, like Brazil and India, and it is a global catastrophe. And we don't know where it is going. There's a curious piece of news. Tesla is collaborating with a German company, which I just heard. It's for Kurevac. It's a small company, a biotech company that is producing a vaccine the German government has invested in. Together with the Goa Tesla company, they are creating printers, if I understand right, R&D printers. I don't fully understand it. So the shadow DNAs, they say they will have mobile little units that can be deployed in different places fast in the world to print vaccinations, in case the right one could be found. I think this is great. Over 100 vaccinations are being tried out. Three to 400 remedies for the COVID. Unfortunately, it looks like America bought up 90% of the world's reserve for remdesivir. It shows some sign of shortening recovery. It costs $5 to produce one of those pills with profit. But the company that developed it, it was already existing with shots between two and 3,000 for each five-day healing process. So American taxpayers have to bail out car industry, airplane industries, big, big companies. But the ones who make money are refusing to pitch in and taxpayers, theater workers, actors would have to pay two or $3,000 for that pill in case they get COVID and don't have the insurance. So it's a stunning, as Richard Schachner said, it's a nuclear explosion that happens. It's a Fukushima event, but everything is open like an x-ray, a social political x-ray we see and everything. And of course, we look always at our world, at our families, our neighbors, the next street, maybe the next block, the next city, and we care less and less and less. Like when you break your leg, if it happens to you, it's bad to your sister, it's terrible to someone next door, it's not so bad. And in the next neighborhood, in the next city or another country, but we have to care. And we do care about our global theater community. And with us, we have Iman Aoun today from Palestine. And thank you, thank you for joining us, Iman. And she's an award-winning actor as a director on drama talk. And she has a great record on stage and behind the scenes. In 91, she co-founded the great Ashtar Theater Initiative, and she has been instrumental in directing many, many productions, drama talking to them. And she is a specialist in Augusto Boel, the great Brazilian theater maker, who we also have to take a closer look again, the theater of the oppressed techniques for over 30 years. She has acted and worked directed over 45 or 50 plays, eight movies, and four TV series. So stuff people like me dream about, that I could say that. She, you did it. So after my long talk, and I hope you will forgive me that introduction Iman, welcome to Segal Talks. Where are you, what time is it? Well, first of all, thank you so much for having me. This morning, this evening for me, I am in Jerusalem at my house, particularly in Shafat Street. And we are at the moment under the quarantine because the new wave of the pandemic had started in Palestine, and we hit more than 3,000 people who were affected by the pandemic, and 11 rest their souls were dead. So therefore, the government had imposed the five days quarantine one more time because we spent two and a half months under quarantine, but then they reopened. We went back to work slowly. For some people, they went back on full-fledged. So the amount of sickness had retaken but more vicious than it was before. So for three and a half months, you were under lockdown? Yes, for two and a half months. Two and a half months. Yes, from March 8th until the end of May, and a little bit plus, a few days in June, and then everybody went back in June to work. And now, here we are. We're back to quarantine, and we don't know what will happen next because as I said before, this wave is worse than the wave before. I will say a little bit about it because we heard that Israel wars, at least in Israel and in the territories, it was quite a successful story. Amir, who we talked to and others said, because of the history of lockdowns and it was followed fast, implemented fast. So tell us a bit. So that was not fully aware of that. In fact, in Palestine, it was very successful because the minute that this group that was in Bethlehem from Greece had tested positive, the government had shut down the area of Bethlehem. And so they were able to really close down the threat of the spreading of the pandemic. And then slowly we all went into quarantine because there were thousands of workers who work inside Israel from the Palestinian workers. And it was the time of Ramadan Feast and then it followed by the Da'id, the Iftar. So all the workers were to come back to their homes and it was then that the amount of sickness had been elevated because of the people who were living and working inside Israel, they were infected. And so they brought it back to their families. Going back to the issue of our experience of lockdown, of course, we are more than one time we had been locked down but lockdown was always imposed on us. It wasn't our choice. This time it was different because it was our own security, our own health and the government had chosen to really lock the people down and everybody was really behaving well with that. How did it feel for you? Yeah, I'm sorry, go on. So no, it's okay. The problem is those who were not able to really maintain the lockdown, as I said, were the workers who were working inside Israel. And because Israel viciously had put them without any health protection on the checkpoints, literally they just throw them at the checkpoint, letting them go back to their families without even being checked. In long lines, in close, no social distancing, you mean? No social distancing, but not only. They work with cheap labor. They don't have rights. They don't have, how do we say, health security. They don't follow treatment which they should be following the treatment inside Israel because they are working inside Israel. But all of that, they're not protected. So therefore when they came back home, some of them were really affected and they affected their families and some of them even had faced death unfortunately. They maybe also lived together in close quarters and in Israel. What are the numbers? How many people are we talking about? For us who do not know as much, how many of those workers migrate daily or weekly? Oh, the workers, we're talking about 12,000 workers who really go and work inside Israel. And it really varies from one era to another, one period to another because they are on daily basis as well. Most of them, they are workers of daily work. But as I said, most of them, they do not follow the health insurance. They don't have any health insurance from their boss or from the organizations or from the people who really work with them. So, yes, you were asking me a question. How did it feel for you to be under lockdown where you said, yeah, it's a good thing? Tell us a little bit about that feeling or the underlying emotions. In the beginning, it was a shock for everybody. I think all the planet was under a state of shock from this pandemic. But, you know, on a personal basis, because at the last maybe 30 years, I've been so much on the go, so much running around from one place to another, traveling a lot. And on top of all, spending so much time going from my home in Jerusalem to my work in Ramallah, which is only 10 kilometers, but spending hours on the way because I have to pass three checkpoints. How long is the journey? It's supposed to be 20 minutes at the most, but then sometimes, well, every day the minimum is one hour and sometimes three hours. It depends on the checkpoint. So, it's training. It is time consuming. And it is also the time consuming and it is also devastating psychologically, economically, and emotionally. So, when the quarantine took place, I was really happy. For the first time, I could relax at home. I could spend time without this mad rush to go back and forth every day. So, that thing was only the positive aspect of it. Then, of course, we were all perplexed, not knowing how to really maneuver what to do. All our work was stopped. We had so many productions and tours inside the country and abroad. We were invited to go to Serbia, to Canada, to come to New York. Everything was really put on hold. So, when we looked at what is happening to us and around us, to the world, we thought that the best way, really, to maintain our sanity is to keep our connection with our audience and with the world around us. So, we turned into the digital life. We started to really take from our background plays, from our old productions, and put them and stream them live on Facebook and really disseminate the information around us. And what amazed us, really, is that we gained double our audience with this. That was really amazing. It was a cheering moment rather than a suppressive one. So, suddenly, everybody wanted to talk to everybody via Zoom or Skype or Messenger, whatever. So, we found ourselves. I found myself daily in front of my computer talking to more people than I ever do in real life before the pandemic, which also had raised certain questions into my mind. Is that are we really going into a phase where we will be slowly getting rid of our real connections through the world? I think this question had, everybody had asked themselves. It is quite interesting, charming, to be able to really connect to the people that you know so easily, to make meetings that were so much draining and taking time to bring everybody together, or conferences, to bring everybody together.  Everybody is there, and you could see everyone, and you could really make your work happen. What is not good is that this rapport with the audience, with the people, with our colleagues, with our friends is different now. How can I call it? Lost the empathy, because when you breathe together, when you really see a play, when you cheer an actor, this energy inside the rehearsing room or inside the performance room, or it's different. It means the world. No matter how far and wide we could really reach through our devices, we cannot really reach this moment, this empathy, this energy, this breath, this heat that makes the whole encounter humane. On the other hand, during the pandemic, what we did is my husband, colleague, and lifelong partner, Edward Muallem, he was able to write three books, bringing all the plays of Ashtar theater, whether the professional plays that we have done with the theater of the oppressed, or the plays that we have worked with our community groups and produced in a book of two chapters. He also gathered the plays of Al-Hakawati Theater Company, the company that we descended from, all the early, about four plays of the early times, from the 78th until 82, or 84. He brought them all together in one book as well. So that was also another push, another experience that was worthwhile in our life under the quarantine. Yeah. So in the way of life with checkpoints, that means six checkpoints a day when you went back and forth and hours waiting, wars, so there's a corona in a way, gave you a breathing room, so it's a very different, the western world that experiences perhaps for the first time, the uncertainty, they're not knowing. And so it's a beautiful moment. It's also sad to know that it has to happen like this for you to experience such a moment. Absolutely, absolutely. Especially because, I mean, for those, many friends out there who know a little bit more about Palestine and those who do not know about Palestine, to be an actor is not taken for granted. To be, to work in art is not something that is very easy. It's not easy anywhere in the world, but it's not easy, probably double here because we also have to face not only the occupation, which is a big stone on our shoulders, but it's also, we have to face social norms because it's not easy for the society to accept, especially for women to be part of the theater world, not everywhere. Women are much more involved at least at our time, but it was a difficult path to reach there. When we started back in the 77 with the Hakuati Company, there was only maybe three or four female actresses. Later, when we started in 1991, there were maybe 10 actresses. We had to work so hard in order to convince families, schools, the society in general, that this profession is a decent one. We had to convince the society that theater is a message. It's a political and social message. We have to really implant the importance of performing arts in our society over and over again. Every step that the community of performing arts had taken, it wasn't an easy step. It needed a lot to really establish roots and to establish a real cemented ground to stand on. Nowadays, we have actresses. We have many actresses in Palestine, but not in all the cities. In certain areas, more than others, you see that in the middle in Jerusalem, in Ramallah, in Bethlehem, there are more actresses, but less actresses when you go out in remote areas. We try to train different groups, different youth groups, women and men. We try to encourage them to continue. They do continue. They train, they work for one year, two years, but then the problem is also connected to the economy because it's a weak economic segment. As you were saying in your introduction in the beginning, all actors in New York are facing dire situation at the moment. So they do in Palestine. Regular basis, without the virus already. Without it, of course, but now more because we do not have a government that believes really in what we are doing, in the importance of our being. They praise the fact that we have theatres, we have dacke groups, traditional dance groups. We have cinema. But then when it comes to real support on the ground, there are no budgets. There is no support, real support. There are no laws that protect us. But what we are doing, I mean, organizations that have been there even before the Oslo agreement that wrote the Palestinian authority into Palestine, our organizations were there and were really struggling but also imposing and creating culture to the people. We will continue to do that. We will never go away. We will not disappear with the money or without the money. We will stay. But what we want is recognition. What we deserve is more support. Even though they do recognize us on the modern level, let's say, but we want more from them. But of course, saying all of this, we have to keep in mind that even the Palestinian authority and our government is under occupation. The whole country is under occupation. Nowadays, our workers do not have money. All the authority does not have a penny because they have stopped the cooperation with the Israelis due to the Israeli plan to annex the Jordan Valley. And so the authority is facing economical disaster at the moment. And so had been this way over and over. Every few years, there's something else. Today, it's the Jordan Valley before it was Gaza, before it was something else. So there are always excuses that Israel creates on the ground in order to jeopardize the position of the Palestinians, whether it be the Palestinian authority or even the people all together. And the main frustration for us is the weak and sometimes even the total silence of the world. And the surmounting support of the US to Israel, because for us, they are two coins or two faces of the same coin. Colonization had not vanished. So we're still living the mentality of the colonial. The white supremacy is still undermining everyone in the third world, whether it be on actual occupation or if it is on economical occupation, or when it is sanctions imposed on countries like Iran, for example, like Syria, like Lebanon. It's crazy. The world is in a crazy position. And it's our duty, our duty, the artists to really keep at least small bubbles here and there for pure breath for the people. But it's also our duty to have the pin, like in the old days, as jokers, and really push this big balloon in order to burst it out. It's not a big duty, but sometimes we feel ourselves alone, especially when it comes to political solidarity. And I should say that maybe this pandemic had brought something also good on the table, because suddenly the whole world felt that we are all connected. So what is happening in Palestine is affecting the people who are in New York or in Brisbane or in UK, et cetera. And we see more people in solidarity with us. But the problem is we do not have the power that doesn't have, because we own the world. We own the words. We own our body, but we do not own the material. We do not own machine guns. And we know who governs the world. Those who make war, factories of ulterior leave. Those who run it, politicians. And the media who really connects this triangle. So, well, you can ask me questions. No, no, no. As you say, what some people say, the world follows the golden rule, and that is who has the gold rules, right? And it shouldn't be like this. It's not in the interest of mankind. It's not in the interest of social progressive justice, and it will not make the world a better place. And how does it feel to be an artist in Palestine? How do you, what's, how is it connected to the society, to cities, this theater? Since we started our program in 1991, the whole idea for us was to really aid to give a new aspiration for our youth. That's why when we started, it was a horizontal project. We started in Jerusalem because we live in Jerusalem, but then very soon it went into Gaza. Bethlehem, Ramallah, Mirzai. And so the project was really going horizontal in Palestine. And we started to train our youth. But then, then we also, like after the first three years, we, and with the graduation of the first, the first group of our students, we felt that it's worthwhile to continue with them and grow even wider. It was in 91 and 93 it was the return of the authority or of the PLO into Palestine after Oslo agreement. So, and it was a time when we were not able at all to find even a small space in Jerusalem to rent because Palestinians were banned from owning land or from building on it. There were no permission for that.  And we rented a space that became our studio. And from there we continued to work in the different places. And of course, it was after the Goldstein massacre at the Ibrahim Mosque. That 700, 740, 740 checkpoints were imposed on the territory of the West Bank to protect whom. They killed us and then they want to protect themselves. Okay, now this had made us think of an alternative program in addition to our theater school, which is the theater of the oppressed. So we introduced the theater of the oppressed technique because people were not able to move from one area to another from one village sometimes to the city next door. So by introducing and adapting this form, we started to do forum plays and we started to go to the people where they are. Maybe say a few words about Boal and the theater of the oppressed. I'm sure not everybody who listens to us knows they should, but everybody does. Of course, well, great Augusta Boal, our teacher and master who belated Boal, had really developed with his troop, the CTO in Brazil, this form of theater that is called Theater of the Oppressed, that is based mainly on highlighting the problems of the people, by the people and indicating the problem and keeping the problem accentuated alive on the stage and opening up the performance to the audience and to become, instead of being passive recipients, passive audience, becoming active spect actors, which means that they become actors on the stage at the second round of the performance. The main idea of the forum is to really open up the debate, give space to the audience to think and become active beings in their society and also to testify ideas of change, to become change makers not only by verbal or thinking about it, but also in acting it out in order to realize whether change is possible or not possible. Because we think that change might be a very simple aspect, but in fact change is very difficult on the ground and that's why the world is not really in a good situation. So by adapting the forum theater and the different aspects of theater of the oppressed, because the theater of the oppressed has a tree of different methodologies, one of them is image theater, forum theater is at the heart of it, the way we open up the performance to the audience to interact. But there is the newspaper theater, the legislative theater, which really tackles legislative or laws that concern a city or a country and then how the people could really create a collective in order to change that legislation. Did it work for you? Have you adapted it? Did you find new forms or did it work? It did work in different ways in many times. The way we work with the theater of the oppressed, we usually go into the community, we make a research. First, we really, we put the target, we put a topic that we want to target and then we start our research in our community. We meet the people, we read about the issue, we look at the organizations who work upon this issue on the ground. We try to see what the problem in depth is and then we bring all the information back to the theater and we start to create the play. After we do the performance, we take the performance back to the audience, we meet the community and we perform it to them and we encourage them, of course, to think of different solutions. Then we open up these discussions, we take those discussions from the audience and we perform to decision makers. We try to go to key people who can really make the change on the ground, we perform the play and we try to lobby for the sake of the community. So whether it worked, it worked in one of the cases, we were working with different women's organizations to raise the marriage age because at the moment we had the marriage age 14 or around 14, it was between 14 and 15 because when we look at age history or the Islamic age or the Christian age. That was a big problem for many young girls who were wed at early age. So we went into a project together with the different women's organizations and we put a proposal for the head of the country because the legislative body committee were not functioning since 2005 when the world had really pushed Hamas into Gaza and so the whole country stopped functioning the right way. So all what we were able to do is to really go to the president every time we want a new law to be issued, we go to the president. And so the president really had looked into that with very thorough eye and wanted to change this law, but then it was only a proposition. It's not really a law at the moment because the legislative body is not there. On a different level other stories that were also going into lobbying towards some issues or big topics. We were working at the Jordan Valley with community groups and at the Jordan Valley and this is very important for our audience to really understand this particular land that Israel wants to annex is something like 300 kilometers length and five kilometers width. And it's supposed to be or it used to be the most fertile land where all our vegetables and fruits came from. But over the years with Israel occupation had done, they have really put this Jordan Valley under dire conditions and they have stolen all the water because there are big reservoirs of water under the Jordan Valley. One third of our water comes from there. So what they do, they forbid Palestinians to dig wells. So, if they give a permission, the only possibility in your land to dig a well is for 10 meters. Next door to you, there will be or there is a settlement, a colony, they dig 40 meters. So all the water goes to that well and your well is quite empty. So what happened to the soil, it became salty and unfertilized. The people became more and more poorer and poorer because they are peasants. This is how what they live on. And then they closed all the frontiers for any trade in the vegetables. So the Jordan Valley at the moment is really facing so much problems, so much attacks from different parts. One of them is also the Israeli occupation in the summer, they go and do life training inside the villages using life immunitions. While people are living. So they put them out under the sun for hours and sometimes without water, without food. And they have to leave their homes because the Israeli occupation soldiers are training. We can't hear you at the moment. Maybe you could just say again, we just lost you. While they have to be outside without food and water. Yes, I said that they put them outside under the sun without food or water. And they use life immunization in their training. Some of the people were injured badly and some were even killed. But there's total silence from the world towards that. And this is continuing. And at the moment, of course, they want to take this part of our land of the West Bank because it's a fertile zone for them. What do you think as a theater maker of that Trump Israeli proposal to enact? What are your thoughts? I think that it's not Trump. If I say it's not the person. It's the system. It's the cooperation of the American politics. It is IPAC who runs the politics in the US. And if it is not Trump, it will be X or Y or Z. It doesn't matter the name. It doesn't matter the person. The problem is that there is not enough will to change the political image or the political will inside the US. We were hoping that Sanders would continue his campaign and would be the next president. But look what happened because even the Democrats would not allow someone who has a different point of view to really run the state. So, yeah, I think that as a theater maker, one of my continuous role is really to raise such issues. To really present our life on the stage, to encourage our youth to continue and despite the despair, to create active and proactive hope, not to wait, but to be with a vision and with a mission in their life. Maybe I should put on my light. Put on a little bit of light. I think light is going down, right? Just to say yes. In Jerusalem, it's... Just give me one second. Yes, absolutely, yeah. I think that's what Guter said of some of his last words. As far as we know, he said we do need more light. Here we go, yes, yeah, thank you. It happened fast in the sun. It happened fast that the sun went down. It's right in the home zone, that's why. Yeah, yeah, yeah. No, these are devastating moments for a country and also for artists. And one doesn't really have a feeling that there are solutions that are thinkable that would create, as you said, a change. Why do you do theatre then? What's your hope in this complex situation? I do theatre because I believe that theatre is the breath that I have. It is the only way to keep me alive. Because if I don't do theatre, I'll go nuts. Too many and too much frustration around, not only in Palestine, in the world. But sometimes I say, if I were not a theatre maker, I probably would like to be a politician, but I hate politics and politicians. But I think that I have a role as an artist to really keep the, how do you say, it's like the Joker again in the medieval time, who will tell the king that he is wrong. So that's why I'm a Joker. And I believe that this is the most important role that I have. I always point my finger. I always use my pen towards what is wrong. And also maybe because I feel that the theatre, really an art in general, makes us more humane. If we are not using art in our life, our life is so dull. I mean, look, during this pandemic, the best outcome of it was the performances that everybody was putting on YouTube, on Facebook. So art is an important aspect in our life, which sometimes we feel that we feel how important they are when we miss them. Or when we are mostly in need of them. I started doing theatre when I was a child at school. The first time I was on stage. It was a play. It was called The Good Samarite or The Good Samaritan. Samaritan? Samaritan from the Bible. Samirir Rahim in Arabic. And it was a pen to mine. And I was Samaritan at the time. This feeling of being under the spotlight. This feeling of having the world as a stage for you, for you as an actor. To stand there and to say what you want. Nothing can be compared with. From that moment that I got married to the theatre. And I hope I would not divorce it ever. It's a moment, it's strange, we spent so many years in school, you know, and we forgot so much, but we never forget when we were in a play. We were part of a performance. It left an impression. It made us see things differently and that is not just us. It's for everybody in the world and this is why we need it and why we need to do it. As you said, it changed your life. Maybe your teacher wouldn't have put up that play. You would be, most probably, but I would be someone else. So the time we live in, of corona, of zoom, is it changing the way you now will be working? Even let's say we have a time after corona, the TAC, as I call it. But will there be a change to the seat of the oppressed and zoom and going outside? Are you thinking of different possibilities now which we haven't thought before? In fact, we are at the theatre. We're thinking of, like, let me put it this way. We've been working with students at universities using forum theatre in order to train them and really tackle the issue of immense battery education. Since the pandemic erupted, we're not able really to work with our students face to face. We used zoom and we discovered that, well, it works but it doesn't work the best way sometimes to train via zoom. But what could work is a live performance. So at the moment we are thinking of doing a live forum performance. So we're developing our skills in order to create a possibility for the audience to interact with us in the forum while performing. So an Augusto Boal idea of the forum online based on your history with theatre training with people on chat rooms. So it's an updated version or using a new technology for a traditional old forum which creates something new. That's the hope because if this continues like this, we cannot really wait until we find the vaccine and life goes back to normal. Yes, I think the world is really going into a new stage, a different age, the age of the digital at the moment. And so we have to be part of that world as well because we need our audience and our audience need us. Yeah, maybe in 100, 200 years on mankind we look back at this moment. It is the moment when the world really went online. We all thought cyberspace is not real but now it's one of the few real spaces where we can meet for real someone. What do you detect also from, I don't know how we are in contact with Arab countries, colleagues and friends in Israel. Do you see things online where you say that makes sense and that's interesting, that's inspiring. Have you seen something that was next to yet of course the screening of archival material. Is there something where you say this has a potential that was interesting? I've seen things, different things in fact, I've seen things from Germany, from UK, very little from the Arab world that I have seen and not many people. I've seen from Palestinians, I mean many plays that I didn't have the chance to see them. I mean from my colleagues of different years I was able to follow and I was really happy to be able to see them. But I've seen from Shakespeare company, I've seen different things. But maybe one thing also that interested me is an experience that was done in the Forum Theatre training online that David Diamond from LaMama shared with me. Because I'm supposed next week to train a group of people and using theatre of their breast and it's not an easy matter really to train different people at the same time when they are not in the same room. But I mean one thing that I want to say that the Globe, Shakespeare Globe for example, we received yesterday a letter from them from Terry saying that they will be performing all the performances that were in 2012 the Globe to Globe. And our Richard II will be also performed on the platform, on the website, so on YouTube link, which is great. So this is another way also of reaching out to more audience internationally. Hopefully that this would help the continuation because as I said before in the beginning that we were invited to different theatre festivals this year unfortunately all of them were stopped. Even our international youth festival that was supposed to be now, July 10 to 20 was postponed until next year and we had 18 performances from around the world. 18. Yes. Yeah and you also had it on HowlRound like last year right? It was also shown. Yes. HowlRound is doing a great job. Absolutely. HowlRound had followed our festival last year and they were really streaming it live whenever we were performing, which is great. Yeah, since we have I think international listeners sometimes we have them maybe from 35 countries, I don't know how many people have today but what do you need if you say we felt left alone perhaps the world isn't paying attention and we all should for everybody to individual experiences but also to critical situations to systems and structures as you pointed out they are so wrong forms that don't work. What would help you, what we would say to the world and you know that would be do this for us or what would be of use? Well, I think if I want to ask what I need from the theatre world more than the world in general because there are many things that we need from different parts. From theatre makers one is that, for example, we are not being presented enough in theatre festivals around the world, main theatre festivals where we are presented mainly in the off theatres not those the big ones because they don't know of our work because they don't come and see our work because they are interested or artistic directors they don't really travel to our part of the world to come and follow. So this is important I believe that in order to really raise the awareness of the people of our culture that is one of the things that should be done. Another thing is more co-productions between international companies and Palestinian companies. It's great that for instance the performance of Nizar was in New York. It's great that our performance Richard II was at the globe but there are more companies, we have new plays that are worth seeing. So there's always new things happening, more things possible, more joint forces possible to really raise the awareness from one side. And not only the awareness of the political issue but also of our artistry, of our ability as artists. On the other hand I think solidarity is an important aspect. Solidarity with us as Palestinians and not in connection to if you want to make any production with us you have to also make a joint production with the Israelis. We exist autonomously. We are the owners of this land, we are the indigenous people of Palestine. We deserve to be looked at as a whole entity with deep culture. Yeah, if I want to ask politicians I don't think that this is the platform to do that. No, but still I think this is important what you say you know to be invited to make co-productions maybe also that significant theater companies and directors from the Mousskaya and Oster Meyers and the great French directors and others so that they come and participate and also do work in your place. To do something with nothing as you say to experience a completely different set you know often and experience how to create something and to really think what's essential as we are forced now to experience this truly unprecedented moment where we are in a way also the same boat with you even so your life and your own experience of this is so radically, radically different and we most probably are not able really to understand the experience you go through every day, every week, every year, every decade of your 30 years plus work in theater but it gives us perhaps an idea for the idea of it. What inspires you at the moment? What do you read? What do you listen to? Is there something that nourishes you that keeps your knife sharp? People say you know you should do reading because it's like sharpening a knife. You should keep your mind clear. What do you do? But if you allow me to, if you allow me just to talk about a little bit about Gaza about this closure and the feeling of the closure and to connect it to the fact that Gaza had been under siege for the last 12 years now. Can you imagine two million people are living in 15 kilometers siege in the biggest prison on earth at the moment. They're not able to leave. People are really stuck inside with the very little possibilities of jobs and of life but they are doing theater, they're doing culture. Which is great and important and maybe going also viral and going digital is an important aspect. Maybe how around would be hosting someone from Gaza soon. That would be a good idea to listen to the people there and what they need to say. But what is inspiring me at the moment? Well, at the moment I'm really trying to read novels and listen to classical music. What novels do you read? There is a novel of, it's called Amir Hadar Alam, The Prince of this world by Russian writer Mikhalov. It's interesting because it really talks about medievals and the time of, it's like a research into the medieval period. Period, but also, what's the word? Behaviors. Well, I have to admit that I haven't been reading a lot apart from the novels. I read like five, six novels during the pandemic. Most of them are in Arabic. But I'm watching Sherlock Holmes and reading the book, so trying to really see the difference in the writing, which is interesting. I think Netflix had been number one during this pandemic of how many people had been seeing films at the moment. And I'm really trying to think for the future of our work, how to really go digital in most of our work. So this is mostly the focus that I'm doing at the moment. Fundraising as well, fundraising, fundraising, which is a big and draining aspect, especially that the funds are also becoming connected to politics more and more. There were always like this, but now, I don't know whether you have heard, or the audience have heard of the new political conditions that the EU have imposed on us as Palestinians. Because if we, the EU had been one of the major funder, supporter for the Palestinian civil society. And now, in order to take the money, we have to condemn the struggle of our political parties. We have, because they have really put them on the list of terrorism, which is devastating, because even international law had secured our right to resist the occupation. And when someone like the EU impose such a clause in their contract, you take the money, or you denounce your rights, that is against international law. And there is a big fight at the moment that there's a big struggle, let's say, at the moment inside the society to really, to find measures of opposing that act from the EU and trying to really stop it. And not only the EU, there are new and more countries that are following this EU action, which is putting us into the corner, reducing the very little money that comes into Palestine and the real bits and pieces that come to culture. Yeah, now it's, yeah, it's a big, big reminder, you know, also for people in Berlin or New York, who think already life is tough downtown theater, you know, but trying to survive, try to work in your place, where you do the work.  It's a devastating and people don't know someone said it might be Chacovian ending or a Shakespearean Chacovian where everybody's unhappy for centuries or a Shakespearean is a bloody killings and we don't really know what we of course hope that are in the very long run and it might take a very, very long time. But there will be solutions. France and Germany were the biggest enemy on planet Earth. They somehow made friends. Ireland came came to terms, but it took, you know, centuries and it took a good will and a lot of people like you who who were on the side of struggle for liberties and understanding and many people in all the in all the states have have contributed to it and I am sorry that you're also between the fronts in a way between the Western world and the and the Palestinian world between your own government or as a woman you try to fight for rights and then against Israel. So it's so complex and there is no black and white, no right, no right wrong and everybody who says it is lying and that's why we do need theater to show the complexities and perhaps also without a solution but we have to show what is how the world is about how we would like it to see so you're doing a great, great contribution there it's a heroic efforts as so many theater people we talked about and Lebanon and Chile and Brazil and the US people on the difficult circumstances you know really using the arts for an expression of man kind and as you pointed out it is now the time that we see how significant it really is that so much of what theater represents represents life itself the the joining friends meeting getting dressed to go with the show talk about it whether you like it or not like in a soccer game not every game is a great one once in a while you see but you do go you are passionate and it represents the very best and this is what we miss most and theater is at the center of it is thank you for giving an update and of course it could be much longer or every day and and I apologize that the time is short but it gives us a moment and it contributes to the mosaic of that global experience of the pandemic by theater and performance artists we are a community we care for each other your work is important you're not alone there and and I also from our talk we had with just a small and and the other Israeli playwrights you know they are they are concerned you know very real and for that place and it's a helplessness and but I think we we have to find ways at least to represent the symbolic imaginary and real way how change can happen and it is of at most significance so really really thank you for for for having spending time with us and I hope you will follow some of the series and again you know what you said for this theater series listeners and your artists think about how to how to connect how to reach out and maybe give a sign of support and inviting and and also maybe suggest getting involved don't stand by don't sit at the sidelines take action this is what this is all about and what you do getting involved in your community trying to change laws do it in your own world tomorrow we go on and we have Sakina Dia and Ivone Vultras from Jamaica English speaking Caribbean artists also experience a tough time Jamaica with the complex history the history of slavery and colonialism and complex a relation to to their language to their history and also the fear and the feeling that perhaps someone is not thinks about enough about it they are forgotten and not being paid enough attention to so it's a very significant talk we also going to have tomorrow Iman anything you want to say but what should young artists what should people think about what should they be doing you from your experience of over 30 years making theater complicated circumstances and we experience them now what what advice do you have well first I wanted to say that the situation is that that because it's really absurd what we are living at the moment but but what I wanted to say about young people and maybe before the young people I also want to salute all the Native American actors and actresses my dear friends who I worked with them in New York in last May but also I really want to say that indigenous artists are important artists for this world we really have to work together we really have to join join our efforts and the the white male male artists who sit on top of the business they really have to look with equal eye to us because they're there because of the colonizer and we're here because of the colonization and it is time to really make it a horizontal situation and cooperation no one is better than the other although they are sitting in their parish but but we have we have the soul we have the energy and we have the continuation of this land the connection of this land and this is also what I want to say to the young people my students the young people in Palestine but also around the world that they have a responsibility each individual artist has a big responsibility to make this world a better place for all of us not only for themselves but for all of us so I think I think I would stop here no that's a big very big reminder and you're absolutely right people also like me people who are in positions you know we never even questioned how we get there my others are not there and there isn't a Palestinian and African American others you know doing the work I do and and their reasons and for it and we have to listen we had a great session with spider woman it was very important what they had to say also now Native Americans who hit so hard they are the ones that my son-in-law a company member two friend people died from the coronavirus they are much more affected we're going to have Emily Monet and Greg Hill from the Canadian Native American indigenous community they will be with us next next week and I think this is a time if there is anything good at the S we will we do listen perhaps a little bit more closer and we do think a bit more careful about our lives and what life is about and what's the significance and to create a place for the next generation that is better than we found it and when we were young or better than should be better than what we have contributed and we should listen also you know to those young people who are protesting and seeing this moment of real change so again thank you thank you so much to our listeners for taking time it's now it's a long time but it's important for Iman to know that people do listen people do care that it is on our minds even so we might not have immediate solutions in that they might take a lot of time and 25 missions failed but the 26 might work out and to really keep in mind that we are fellow humans here on this planet Earth and that we depend on coexisting but also with the animals and plants and everything and respecting the place this unique planet in that solar system there are billions of stars and most probably billions of galaxies and we don't know if there's another one it is in danger and as Frederic pointed out yesterday it's the first time we have to think also about the extinction of a species what will happen if this is a deadly virus and can be fought what if there's another one comes up what are we doing and how recipes do we have and we really have to change the way we conduct our lives our business our existence on planet Earth and it's a it's a very serious moment so Iman really thank you HowlRound thanks for hosting us and Thea and Vijay, Travis, Asanyang and Andy at the Segal team and please do join us and tomorrow we'll know more about next week's line up I think again we will go around Canada and Japan and many places around the world, Africa, Kenya we will hear from and so it will be another week of contributions from theater artists on the world to hear how they experience this time and thank you really for listening I know how full the days are how much is out there and I also hope that it's as meaningful to all of you who are listening this is for me to be part of this and of course for Iman to know that there's a connection for work to the world and there really really is thank you all stay safe stay tuned wear a mask even if our president doesn't do it who yesterday said or will the virus will somehow go away he hopes it has never been as many high infections as now he famously told people to inject themselves with disinfectant it's a scandalous it's he has been called a mass murderer even on this program because he will have many dead people on his conscious and it is shocking is like in the tales and spider women the Native American company that they feel we are in a creational myth we have a mad king, a mad ruler there's the plague in the country everything has stopped and there have to be new energy, new Barba talked about the energy, there have to be new solutions and there ever is a time for us in our lives for this planet it's now and we have to understand that this is a very very serious moment thank you all stay safe stay tuned and I hope to see you all next week Iman thanks for staying up and I'm sorry it got so dark all of a sudden and almost the dark things you talked about you know were represented in that moment but light came back on


This is covering the spread. Here are your hosts, Jim Sonnis and Dr. Ed Feng. What is going on, everybody? Welcome on into covering the spread. That's right here on the FanDual Podcast networking at numberfire.com. Where today, we're talking about the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Dom LeShijun is gonna swing by, break down the nuts and bolts behind his betting model for the NHL, talking about the current round one series, some of the series prices there, and also some games on Wednesday night. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for numberfire.com. Joined here as always by Dr. Ed Feng. You can find his work over at thepowerrank.com. And Ed, can we call you a golf sharp now after you're John Ron, top 10 bet? Is that okay if I label you as such? I'm just a guy that has sharp numbers from Colin Davey. My knowledge of golf is still pale compared to too many out there. Although it was actually really amusing watching the last round of the PGA this weekend and having to explain to people that don't follow numbers that John Rom is a good golfer. Yeah, that was a very interesting conversation. Yeah, and I feel like that's true for a lot of golfers where you have to be like, no, no, no, this is actually, he's really good at this. Yeah, just because he hasn't won a tournament in a while doesn't mean he's not good. Right, it's same thing with like, again, we talked about Tony Fino with Colin last week where like, he's a tremendous golfer. Doesn't win that much. That's fine. You don't have to win to be a great golfer. Like Denny Hamlin has not won a NASCAR race this year. Tremendous NASCAR racer, best driver in the sport right now. Like, wins are overrated in a place where, Ed, we're trying to win bets. I am saying wins are overrated, but I think that we do overvalue them at times and we undersell the variance that goes into finishing in one precise position.  So, hey, it all factors it. Yeah, no, exactly. And if we could get the guy to play, take, you know, the first three rounds of a major seriously, you know, maybe we can get that some top five or even, even outright. Absolutely. Now you're wearing a U.S. soccer kit, is it, do I call it a kit? I am, Yeah, that's good enough. I'm totally out on like soccer stuff. Is there anything like big, is there a reason why you are wearing the kit for today? Yeah, well, I'm wearing the kit because I like it and because the U.S. plays on Sunday, getting back into some big time summer competition. And remember our last conversation about how there's a lot of young promise on this team, there's a lot of excitement for U.S. fans. So that's one thing. But the other thing I wanted to talk about is that I used fbref.com to update my world soccer rankings and they definitely needed an adjustment. And like it literally almost made me cry how easy it was to do it based on just the simple CSV files that you can just download from their site and just one fell swoop. You get all the friendlies from 2020 and then also some from 2021 this year, all the important Euro matches. And I don't think I wouldn't, I don't know, I probably would have figured it out eventually, but I learned about fb rough because of one of our guests on the show last year. So I'm like beyond a static that that site is making it pretty easy for me to update my international soccer rankings. I mean, I used to have scrapers that did it all and it was all automated and they broke as scrapers tend to do over the years. So yeah, anyways, you can check out at thepowerrank.com, you can check out my international soccer numbers. I will be talking about them on this show as Euro comes up pretty soon. Brazil is the top ranked team, but the next 10 teams are from Europe. And that's why Euro is always competitive and it's always exciting and absolutely, I mean, it's arguably better than the World Cup because of the parody of all those teams. I'm glad that your experience with the reference side has been good because our racing reference is changing their format and it hasn't messed up my spreadsheets yet. It is very close to doing so. And I am like every time I open racing reference, I get nervous that they're gonna jack something around, it's gonna totally throw off everything. It would be very, it'd be an easy fix, but like I am nervous that they're gonna change one thing that's gonna throw everything off. Cause right now I can boop, boop, boop, boop, boop, boop, cut pace, two things, it's really easy, super easy to do. But like, if they were to change one thing, it forced me to redo a lot of stuff. And I really would like to avoid that issue if we can possibly do so. Yeah, exactly.  And, you know, I mean, I used to just scrapepifa.com and then I actually, I hired someone to scrape some stuff from ESPN, but that was like a huge mess transferring it and all that stuff and now it's just there. So it's fantastic. Let's hope this is a problem for future Ed and future Jim. Current Ed and current Jim do not need the headaches. So let's hope it's a problem down the line versus right now. As mentioned, we're talking to Dom, Lucician of the Athletic, get his thoughts on the NHL Stanley Cup playoffs, talking about his betting model. It's a player-based model. We've talked to Rob Pazzola about his as well, similar stuff, but also Dom has a unique spin on us. We'll talk to him about that. Get his thoughts on the Stanley Cup playoffs, some series odds, some games going on, Wednesday night as well. You can follow Dom on Twitter at DomLucician and check him out over at the Athletic as well. Also a quick reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread. Wherever you get your podcast, weekly podcast year during the NFL and college football season, we are up usually on Wednesdays, on covering the spread, the podcast feed there. Just search for covering the spread, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, StitcherRadio.com. No matter where you get your podcasts, you can find us and while you're there, if you like what you hear, leave us a rating and review as well. Now we'll get to Dom in just a bit, but first we got to go back to last week. We did have Colin Davion. Talk about the PGA championship. We'll go back through that and then talk about the Stanley Cup playoffs. Covering the past. Last week, as mentioned, we had Colin Davion to preview the PGA championship. You can find Colin on Twitter at ADJ Baseline. For Outrights, Colin was big into Xander Schoffelay, wanted him outright at 20 to one. Xander was good off the tee and he putted well, but had a lot of issues around the green. He lost 3.4 strokes there across two rounds and that forced him to miss the cup, which is weird because Schoffelay is good around the green, just a rough week for him there and a lot of big names missed the cut, so no sweat there. Tough break for Colin with Xander, but did make it back with Bryson DeChambeau at minus 102 over Rory McElroy. That one he did hit correctly. Both guys made the cuts. Bryson beat Rory by two strokes. He's 38th. Rory was I think 46th there. So that's a win for Colin at minus 102. Then it was mentioned before, Ed had John Rom to finish top 10 at plus 160 and Ed, you had that one perfectly. Rom finished a tie for eighth. He had an all around great week of golf. I know you mentioned that, you know, didn't come out hot, but like look at the overall numbers. Really well rounded for Rom. He gained at least 1.6 strokes in each of these strokes game categories. So winner for you at plus 160 in a good week overall.  Like, can we just like, you don't even need to come up a guest. What's that? That, remember, I don't remember my own numbers. Everything I do is based on other people's numbers, but yeah, I think you're making the Rom thing feel easier than it was. Well, but like, I don't think that was in play until, I mean, I don't think he actually snuck into the top 10 until he was in the clubhouse on Sunday. Right, but would you rather trust a sample of 54 holes or 72? It's like the Ken Palm discussion. It's like the Ken Palm discussion where like, sure a game may have been close at halftime, but it's a blow up by the end of the second half, then it's a blow out. It doesn't matter what happened in the first half. Rom struggled the first three rounds, but by the end of the full sample we got, he was top 10 and like, his overall numbers were very good. No, no, for sure.  Xander only missed a cup by like one stroke, I think, so. Yeah, he was on the number, I'm pretty sure. He played well. He just had like those issues around the green and like, DJ missed the cut. I think there were a couple other big names. Rory almost missed by a stroke. Justin Thomas missed it. Like, that's a big name. So there were some major dudes who missed the cut. It was a tough course, makes sense. And maybe that means we can get better value on Xander going forward. That would make Brandon happy. It would make Colin happy as well. So if that's the overall takeaway from this, I'm sure they'll be happy. But hey, you've got some money in your pocket so you can shovel that towards Xander down the line. How about that? Oh yeah, wow. I mean, I'm for sure betting Xander in future tournaments, right? Like, undoubtedly. So it was actually kind of interesting. Like, I came home and I told my wife, oh, a 50-year-old won the PGA Tour. The PGA Championship this week. She's like, oh, yeah, that's interesting.  And won the tournament. And she was like, why didn't you tell me Phil won? I was like, why do I think you know who Phil Milkelson is? We've had that discussion before. Why do I think you know who the second biggest golfer in the world was back when we were kids, right? Like, because I asked her, do you know who Mario Lemieux is? And she's like, who? I was like, that's kind of the same thing, right? Right, right. I've had that same discussion because I have no, I have no context what other people know or don't know. I'm terrible at gauging that. Like, just like my wife has watched Bless Her Soul. So many NASCAR races with me that I like, I clarified who Kurt Busch was and the Bush Brothers. She's like, you could just say the Bush Brothers. I'm like, oh yeah. I mean, they're 40 years old at this point. So like, I can just say that. And like, I have no frame of reference. I'm terrible at judging that. So I feel your pain there. Like, I'm really bad with those things. Yeah, so I thought that was interesting. And you know, obviously a storyline that we hadn't talked about yet was the 50-year-old winning a major, you know, the oldest player. And that was pretty cool to see, right? I mean, you just kept watching on Sunday, waiting for him to fail and it just wasn't happening. Yeah. And it was fun to watch him head-to-head with Brooks. I know like, sometimes that storyline got a little bit overplayed, but like Phil launch and drives. And Brooks Kepka is like an intimidating dude. And that's like a compliment to him, good for him. But like, to go head-to-head with Brooks on a Sunday, I thought that was awesome. So Phil Mickelson, major winner at age 50. Really fun storyline there. We're gonna talk some NHL playoffs with Dom Lucigen of the Athletic in just one second. But first, the wait is finally over and the 2021 Stanley Cup playoffs are underway. FanDuel is giving fans a special playoff promotion, correct score insurance. All you have to do is place a pre-live, 60-minute correct score wager on any featured NHL playoff game. If your bet loses, but your selected team wins the game, get a refund of up to $25 in site credit. Even if the game goes to overtime, you are eligible for a refund. Head over to FanDuel today and win alongside your favorite team in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Most be 21 plus and present in Colorado, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, or West Virginia. Refund issued as a non-lethropal site credit that expires in seven days. Max refund $25. Terms apply, gambling problem, call 1-800 Gambler. In Colorado, call 1-800-522-4700. In Iowa, 1-800 bets off. In Indiana, 1-800-9 with it. For Confidential Health, Michigan, call 1-800-270-7117. In Tennessee, call the red line at 1-800-889-9789, or in West Virginia, visit 1-800-gambler.net. Let's bring on Dom Listergen right now to talk about the NHL Stanley Cup playoffs. He is a reporter for The Athletic. We'll talk about his betting model, how to bet this postseason, whether he sees some value in any of the current series odds, and a little bit about Wednesday night's games as well. Covering the present. Let's bring Dom Listergen into covering the spread to talk some NHL. In the Stanley Cup playoffs, he is a betting reporter for The Athletic. And Dom, we appreciate the time. How are you doing today? Not too bad. It's a bit rainy in Toronto, so my hair is a little wet right now, but other than that. At least you have hair. Like, you know. We're not working with a whole lot here. You've got the best hair of this tree. I mean, Ed's is pretty good, but like you're sitting upper quartile, at least. I appreciate that. I usually looks better. Okay. Still beating us. So you got that going for you, but Dom, NHL playoffs, probably a pretty crazy time of year for you. How has it been trying to not only watch all the games, but also having additional time seemingly every night via overtime so far this year? I love overtime and I welcome any extra hockey, especially during the playoffs, because I think it's some of the best hockey you can watch. Honestly, I love the playoffs. Try to watch every game. I have two TVs in my living room, like set up, just so I can watch as much as possible and catch everything. And I live for this time of the year. I plop down on the couch at 7 p.m. and I do not leave until 2 a.m. when the games are over. That's all. That's incredible. What's your schedule like during the regular season? Do you have like a schedule? I mean, clearly it's kind of hard to watch every single game, but what's it like during the regular season? During the regular season, I try to watch as much as I can. There'll be some nights where like mid season where I'll just take a break and not watch anything that night. But because I'm betting on most of the games, I usually want to watch how that unfolds to the sort of ruining my mental health in that way.  So we talked to people who bet volume before, isn't like they, you know, a smaller unit sizes, but try to bet on a lot of games. Cause they feel like they've got an edge overall. They don't want to pick and choose the best spots. Are you of the same mold where you're trying to have action on a high number of games just because you feel like you have an overall edge on the market? Yeah, I'm big on volume. I feel like if I were to pick and choose, I would pick wrong. I trust myself enough to maybe pick right a lot of the time, but I think I trust my model more than I do. So I do tend to just go with what it says, even if sometimes I don't like it, cause hockey is just such a random chaotic sport that sometimes if it tells you to bet on a terrible team, it ends up working out. Yeah, and you wrote about your model. You gave an in-depth breakdown for the athletic last year and you said that it's a player-based model that revolves around game score similar to a metric used for basketball, but not used for hockey. So if you were to translate that to hockey terms, what is that? What is game score for you? And what brought you to making that the central focus of your NHL betting model? The basic gist, same in basketball and saying what I want to do in hockey is to create like a one-number stat that puts like all the box score stats we know and love into one succinct number. So after like every game, everyone's like, oh, this guy had a goal and assist. He had a couple of shots. His possession numbers were not that great though. Like how good was his game? That was the general idea of it. And I remember, I think it was the year LeBron won the championship with Cleveland and I was just soaking up any content I could and I stumbled across the staff for basketball, which I've never heard of. There should be something like this for hockey. So I did it myself. And at the time, I think my betting focused on teams and team strength. And I always felt that was a little wrong because there's a lot of injuries or a lot of lineup changes. I want to be as like up to date as possible with that. And if you think about a player getting injured for maybe like two months, how does that look when he comes back? How strong should the team look? How do you isolate that? And I think that was the way to go and I've had a lot of success since doing that. Yeah, that's excellent. And so that's awesome that you developed this own model yourself. Is it kind of related to expected goals or is it very different? It is related in the sense that it uses expected goals. I think the year that the Blues won the cup, they were really big on expected goals but not the best by Corsi and the old version of game score use Corsi because it was simpler and I needed to sort of adapt to that. So with the Blues, it was a bit of an eye-opening thing where I needed to adjust that portion of the model where I look at a player's play driving ability at five on five and sort of add that to how he produces those box score stats. So what was the process for you like when trying to decide whether to go with Corsi, stick with Corsi, what it had been or transition to expected goals? What process did you go through to make to decide to make that switch? It was a while ago but I'm pretty sure I tested both of them and which predicted future goals better and I think they were close enough that I could have went either way but I think just logically expected goals makes a lot of sense and the big thing for me was that it was a better way to isolate goalies because at the time I was having issues with saying that Devon Dubnick was one of the best goalies in the league just because he played for Minnesota and I was thinking what happens if Dubnick gets traded? How does that look when I put Dubnick on this new team? Will he improve that team as much as my model says he does and the answer is probably no because his stats are inflated. So I think that was the biggest reason I started using expected goals mostly for the goalies. Yeah, that's interesting. So you're just saying this goalie might have played in front of really good defense.  Exactly, and expected goals can control for that a bit better as opposed to what I was doing prior to that which is just using safe percentage. Now in the NBA, we talk a lot about in the playoffs how rotations tighten and stuff like that. It means you have to make an adjustment for NBA modeling. Seems like a player-based NHL model would be positioned pretty well to account for that in the NHL playoffs if there's something similar. So do we see shifts in ice time during the Stanley Cup playoffs and how do you have to adjust things for that on your end to make sure you're accounting for that change? Yeah, I do everything by using rate stats. So how much, how good a player is per minute. And then I use like maybe the last 10 or so games for to project as ice time. And in the playoffs, you do see that as well especially in games that go to overtime which has been a lot of games this post season. The Edmonton Winnipeg game for example, I think Ethan Bear and Slater Kuku had a bad shift and they just did not play for two over times. And you do need to account for that in some way. I think using recent ice time as the playoffs go through captures that effect to an extent where the top players are indeed playing a lot more. Do you ever think that a coach might just, you know, really change someone's ice time going into the next game and kind of hand put that into your model? It is possible, especially if there's a player who was on the fourth line and they decide to give him a promotion and put on the first line. That is something that does happen. It was not something I personally account for because there are times when a coach does that and then halfway through the game he changes his mind or he gives that player that ice time maybe five on five or even just a couple shifts with that top line and then puts the usual guy in that role. I think that that's, just because a coach does something for one time does not mean that will stick. And I think that's an important thing to account for too. We can't always assume what just happened will be predictive of what happens going forward. Now let's talk about some games. We have three games going on tonight. We're recording here on Wednesday. So let's talk briefly about those games. One of the teams playing is Tampa Bay and they've been high in their power rankings on the athletic. I know Rob was high on them too. We talked to him a couple, I think it was a month ago and they've had some trouble with the Panthers so far in this series. They've got game six tonight. Has what you've seen from them in this series altered your view of Tampa Bay at all or do you still think they're a big contender to push for the Stanley Cup this year? I think they're still a big contender. I think they're still the team to beat in the central as well. I would probably rate them higher than Carolina. But once you get to like the top teams I don't think there's much separation between them and Boston and Toronto and Vegas with Colorado still the team to beat. So if Vegas gets through, they still have to play Minnesota tonight but if Vegas gets through and gets by Colorado then I think the top four would be all pretty even. I don't think there's much separating them whereas I think a few months ago I would have had Tampa in that tier with Colorado. And over the last month of the season they sort of, their play started to slip a bit. Vasilotski wasn't as sharp. Headman was playing injured. I have liked Kutraw coming back.  But I think the issue with Florida is that they're a tough matchup for Tampa Bay all throughout the season series. They've been able to control play against them. And I think in a series against Carolina Tampa might fair a bit better especially with Kutraw back and close to 100%. But I don't think they're the team to beat by any means they are contender though. Would you say if they do face Carolina you might view Tampa Bay as being undervalued as an overreaction to what we saw in this series? It's possible. I haven't run the numbers on what their series would be especially because this year I've added like a matchup component. So I would want to see how Tampa Bay played against Carolina during the season series. But it'll be interesting to see how the books rate that series because I do feel like a lot of people tend to still rate Tampa Bay very highly especially because they won last year. So Dom, how does that matchup component work? I presume it's something like you're looking at just how Tampa Bay played Carolina during the season? Yeah, it's not even just how Tampa Bay played Carolina but how the players specifically played. So I use game score as well and I look at their game score in those games specifically. So if Brayden Point's average game score is one and against Carolina it's 1.1 then he played a little better and he gets a little boost from that. And I do that across the entire team and the same for the other side and that gives a little push in the right direction. So for this series, because Florida played Tampa Bay a bit better during the season series they got a bump. Edmonton versus Winnipeg, Edmonton was the better team so they got a bump as well. I think it's the same for Minnesota and Vegas where Minnesota for whatever reason outplayed Vegas during the entire season series and I think what's interesting is seeing whether that's manifested in the playoffs or not. In this Tampa Bay series, Florida has been the better team at 5-1-5 and I don't think they're quite out of it yet. Edmonton, every game they were the better team at 5-1-5 against Winnipeg and Minnesota, well it's been interesting. Some games they've been better, some games they've been shellacked by Vegas' shot volume but I think by XG it's a lot closer than the shot counts make it seem to. Let's talk about the wild. They're playing tonight. So we got the Penguins Islanders and Vegas, Minnesota going on tonight. Any value you see on the boards for those two games as of right now? Right now, I actually have a bet on all the games. I'm not sure if the Lions have moved too much since I bet them but I bet on Pittsburgh because I expect Oliver Wallström not to play and I think going to Travis Zajac is a bit of a downgrade. Minnesota, my model can't get enough of them. Apparently they will bet Minnesota almost every single time and I got, I would say a pretty good price at like plus 119 earlier this morning and I think it shifted down a bit. I am still like waiting to see if Max Patch ready plays but I have an edge regardless so I put a little bit down and then Tampa Bay, that's a tough one because Spencer Knight is starting and he's played all of like five games in his NHL career but based on what he's shown so far, I think Tampa Bay has a pretty good edge in that game and I liked their price. I have their price around like minus 145-ish so there's still an edge there of what it is now. Excellent. So after the last night, Maple Leafs are minus 3,500 to beat the Canadians and Carolina is minus 700 to take down Nashville in their respective series. Do you see any value in these series? I would say probably not. I don't think it's worth it to lay those prices, this late in the series, especially at that range like Toronto, you can probably just bet them to win and game five and call it a day. Carolina, Nashville, that series, it feels like the home team wins every game and I've had an edge on Nashville in most games and I think I bet Nashville before the series and Nashville plus one and a half so I don't know if I would stick with Carolina regardless, I'd probably play Nashville at home and then leave game seven alone. Now when we were talking about the Lightning earlier, you mentioned that the Avalanche have kind of pulled away and separated from the pack and that's reflected in the Stanley Cup odds right now. They're plus 270 at Vanderbilt Sports Book. The Bruins are five to one, Toronto plus 550, no one else shorter than that. Do you think there is value on Colorado at plus 270 or anybody else standing out or are you just staying away from this market right now? I bet Colorado before the playoffs started because I thought even at plus 450, it was still really short. I thought the first round was a freebie for them. I had them at like 88% to beat St. Louis and it was like one of the highest, it was the highest first round probability I've ever had and I just think they're head and shoulders above everyone else and that's also given them the highest cup probability I've ever had as well. I think I started at 37% which is way higher than what the market even currently has them at now where they've already won a round. So that's probably the only team I would bet on. I think there's still value and usually I don't say that about the number one favorite but I think Colorado's on such a high level right now. They have the highest expected goals percentage of any team since expected goals has been a thing and it's not just like by like 0.1 or 0.2, it was by like 3 percentage points. It was insane. So I don't think we've seen a five on five team like Colorado and I think the reason the market is maybe pricing them the way they are is the expectation that they have to get through Vegas and maybe the market viewing Vegas a little closer to Colorado than I do. I don't think Vegas is that close to them to be honest. We might have to be the official podcast of the Colorado Avalanche because Rob was on the Avalanche too so I'm glad to hear Smart Minds saying the same thing. Makes you feel good about Colorado right now. That is Dom Lushijin. Make sure you follow him on Twitter at Dom Lushijin. Check him out at theathletic.com as well. Check out his NHL work there. Dom, we appreciate the time. Thank you so much for swinging by and spreading your knowledge about your model. We appreciate it and good luck to you with your bets not just tonight, but also the remainder of the Stanley Cup playoffs. Yeah, thanks for having me. Covering the future. Big thank you once again to Dom Lushijin for swinging by and breaking down the NHL playoffs and talking about his betting model and Ed.  Seems like innovations and analytics have made things a lot easier on people trying to make out their own models. Yeah, for sure. I mean, when I first started doing this, so 2008 I started thinking about sports analytics and even when you, I think I ran some NHL numbers and it was just goals, right? And then a couple years later, people trying to start to convince me that shots were more important than goals which is kind of counterintuitive yet. I mean true, right? In the sense that, you know, finishing is kind of random and the volume of shots actually is pretty predictive. But then, you know, whether you wanna debate about that or not, you know, things that move forward and now you have this notion of expected goals in soccer, hockey, and it just gives you a better sense for the quality of shot attempts and knowing that finishing can be a little bit random. And so, yeah, I think with the data they have in the NHL, that's really cool that they are doing that.   I don't know if that's true. I don't know if anyone's tried it, but obviously teamwork matters a lot too, right? So you take a guy like Robert Lewandowski, who's on Bayern Munich and great, and then he goes to his national team with Poland where he doesn't have the same type of support. So, yeah, all interesting things to think about and definitely where soccer and hockey are headed. And it actually does tie into golf, too, because we were talking before about how, you know, John Rom hasn't finished the job at a major or whatever and stuff like that, but, you know, the components to get there are there. It's kind of like expected goals. You could have expected wins and stuff like that for golf. We don't want to overvalue results when we want to, I mean, results matter, obviously. We don't want to overweight results and ignore the components that lead to good results in the future. And I think that both expected goals, a lot of the data from golf and like that, that all does interlink. And with NASCAR average running position, stuff like that, those all link up together to hopefully give us a better context behind the results, as opposed to just looking at the results on the surface. Yeah, well, I mean, golf's interesting, too, right? Because just the, you know, I mean, you're in a field with 100 golfers and the most emphasis put on one position, right? The win, whereas that's just, you know, even great golfers are not going to get wins over long periods of time. So, yeah, no, it's certainly the same idea as with the expected goals and just looking at the underlying process as opposed to just results. Well, we'll see how things go in the NHL for tonight and hopefully the avalanche can pull it out for both Tom and for Rob. Let's move now to covering the future for this week. And Ed, you're going to talk about something we discussed with Whalecapper when we did our NBA playoffs betting preview. He talked about home court because fans are back, at least partially, and there is an interesting dynamic there. You want to talk home court in general for the NBA playoffs or for the NBA, what are you seeing right now? Yeah, did Whale give us a number? Or did we just talk about it? I don't believe, I don't believe so, no. Oh, good, because if you gave us a number and I forgot about it, and then I'm going to tell you this, it would be a little embarrassing if that number were different from what he said on our show. But, so yeah, let's talk about home court advantage. Like, you know, you have a model, it's modeling teams on a neutral court. Like, what should you add for home court in the NBA? And it's really, you have to consider two different things. So first is that home court is bigger in the playoffs, traditionally, and I'll talk about that. And the second is that home court is going to be less this year because of fewer fans in the pandemic. So look, we're not going to be able to get an exact estimate by any stretch, but you know, let's do our best, right? So first, let's look at home court in the playoffs versus the regular season. So if you look at the last three full regular seasons, so throughout 2019-20, the three seasons before that, the average home court in the NBA was 2.66 points. Now, in the playoffs during those three seasons, the home court jumped to 4.11. So that's about a 50% increase. And I had to recheck this number. I used to use about 45% increase when I did NBA stuff back in the day. And so that's about the same, right? So you're basically getting about a 50% increase in the playoffs. So check, that's our first, that's the first thing we needed to know. And then the second thing is like, you know, how does the reduced crowd size affect the pandemic? So we know from a lot of work, like in the bookscore casting, that one of the reasons behind home court is the crowd effect on referees. And if you have fewer people in the crowd, you should have less of a home court advantage. So there were obviously reduced crowds during this current season 2020-21. Overall, home teams had about a one point advantage, but that doesn't really tell the full picture because some of them were without fans and some of them were with. So luckily you can just got download the data from basketball reference to split out games with a home, with some fans and games without. And so with fans, the home court has been about 2.2 points this year. It's 503 games. And that's actually kind of interesting because that's basically the same home court that the NBA had in 2019-2020 before the pandemic and those crowds were a lot bigger. So 2.2 points, like that kind of shows you, like it should have been bigger with those bigger crowds last season. So there's a lot of uncertainty in this, but essentially I think two points is a good assumption with partial fans in the crowd and every NBA team in the playoffs is gonna allow some fans in, are gonna allow some fans in the games during the playoffs. So if you take two points, you assume a 50% increase. This suggests that you should get about three points for home court in the NBA playoffs. And you can actually check this against the markets, right? So if there's no major injuries in a series, you should be able to look at what happens on one team's home court versus the other team's home court. The difference in that spread should be about twice home court advantage because you're taking away home court and then adding it to the other team. So for example, Miami was a five point favor against, excuse me, Milwaukee was a five point favor against Miami at home in game two. Now there are one point underdog in game three in Miami. It's exactly six points. Suggests that the home court should be three. You get the same thing in Denver. You actually don't get the same thing when you look at the Phoenix Lakers series. So, yeah. So the number wasn't quite three in that situation. So, but at least those two series in which pretty much the same person all playing in those games, you're looking at a home court of about three and that's what I'll be using going forward. Okay, so I like the process to use there. Finding out what it was previously, the increase for the playoffs and seeing that there. I'm guessing it'd be tough to look at home court in a vacuum during the playoffs because obviously the differential in the teams is such that, but like in the regular season, you can just look at scoring differential, correct? To determine home court. But during the playoffs, you can't do that, correct?  So, look, the best thing to do is to actually just take an even number of games in each series. Cause that way you don't get the weird effect of like a better team having an extra home court. I didn't actually do that in this analysis. So before when I used the factor 45% increase, like that, that analysis did take that into account. So, you know, getting that it's about the same with a more coarse analysis of just looking at all games. It should be fine. I mean, you're only, you know, I mean, if you have a really good team that's winning by a lot in game seven, that's going to kind of throw it off, but that hopefully is few and far between. Right, okay. So three points for home court and the NBA for the post season. Hopefully that helps if you are trying to build out your own NBA model. If you've been struggling with that, Ed Find three points and Will Kapper talked about similar effects for his stuff heading into the playoffs as well. For my cover in the future, I want to talk some NASCAR, the Coca-Cola 600 is this week. So pretty big race. I'm going to go back here to NASCAR and there are two bets I like. One is an outright and one is a top 10 bet. The outright is William Byron at 16 to one. I wanted to go with a non outright on Byron because he has been crazy consistent this year. He had a streak of 11 or 10 straight top 10s, finished 11th last week. So he's just insanely consistent, but he hasn't let a ton of laps. So that lowers his upside, increases the value in non outright. So I went into this thinking, okay, I'm going to get a Byron podium or a Byron top 10. The problem is sports books are aware of William Byron's ability to finish inside the top 10 and his numbers there are I think basically absurd. So if I wanted to find the best value on William Byron, it actually is via the outright. His implied odds of winning are 5.9%. I have met 7.3% in my simulations. That is the largest outright gap of anybody on the board right now, pre-practice on Friday. And that's even with my model dinging him for his lack of dominance. Like it accounts for the fact that he's not let a ton of laps in this package and stuff like that. It does ding him, but he has been good in this package this year. He has had a top 10 average running position in all four races at the one and a half mile tracks. He did win in Homestead. So it's not like he can't win. He just hasn't been converting top three and top four runs into wins as consistently as others have. So he did win at Homestead, a sixth place average running position in Las Vegas. So it's 16 to one. I'm willing to take Byron outright, although you can find a podium bet longer than four to one, which is where he is right now at Fandal Sportsbook. I'd be okay taking that as well. The top 10 bet is on Matty Benedetto. He's at plus 225 over at Fox bet to finish top 10. That's 31% implied. My simulations have him at 42%, which made me go back and double check my numbers. Cause that seemed like, you don't get 11 percentage points differential very often. I thought I was wrong, but I see no reason to change what I have. He ranks 11th in my model straight up before accounting for variance. That is his projected average running position ranks 11th there, finished fourth in Kansas. A similar tire wear ish to Charlotte, more similar, at least in Atlanta and Homestead. The other similar track with a lack of tire wear is Las Vegas and Benedetto was running well there before his team couldn't change a tire on his car late in the race. We ran like 90 laps on one tire. The other three were all fresh, had a baby at around for the final 30 laps. So he finished 16th despite those issues. But I think it's still viewed as being a positive race for him from my perspective. So it's a really big gap between my model and the implied odds. I would be inclined to go harder at Benedetto for top 10 than Byron for outright is my favorite bed of the week right now. But if you do want an outright, like if you're not finding good top 10 odds, or if your book is an offering top 10 odds, I would say William Byron is your guy.  Yeah, I mean, you always want to check and double check things. I think that usually depends on the market. Yeah. So like if you're off by three points in an NFL game, you should, you know, you should be concerned about that. I don't know what the NASCAR market is like, how much you trust it. I presume it's a little bit like golf where it's not, you know, you're not going to expect it to be as strong as football sides in the fall. So I think with NASCAR, I would be a little less likely to think that something's wrong with my model. Right. I guess is what I'm saying. The reason that I was so taken aback by it is because it's something we discussed with Colin last week where the aggregate implied odds in a top 10 market are going to be a lot higher than the aggregate odds in an outright market because like, if that makes sense, like they understand that if you're looking at a top 10 that on that D-Benedetto, it's because you don't want to bet the outright. I think, and I think that what they do is they jack that up where it's possible. What is the house gold? Is what you're saying? Yes, correct. Yeah, the house take, yeah. Right. So like the top 10 odds specifically, I've had trouble finding value there for that reason a lot of times. And so that's why I couldn't talk about Byron for our top 10 is because I think it was minus 167. I can't get there. But so to see D-Benedetto specifically so far off in that market specifically, that's what caught my eye. Like an outright, I'm okay being different from the market there. But like a top 10 specifically, given how high the hold is, that's what caught me off guard. Yeah, yeah, for sure. But hopefully D-Benedetto comes through. We can make it look like the model is smarter that it made me feel earlier this morning. That is all that we have for today here on Covering the Spread. Want to give a big thank you once again to Don Lucigen for swinging by and breaking down his NHL betting model. Check out his work over at The Athletic and check him out on Twitter at Don Lucigen. We'll tag him in our tweets over on Twitter as well. You want to find him via that instead. Ed, you mentioned your soccer numbers. What else is going on for you over at the Power Inc. this week? Yeah, so I've still been in the off season. I've been writing my email newsletter actually every week now. So that's been kind of cool. This week is going to be the home court thing that I just talked about. But hopefully I will come up with something interesting, if not even more interesting next week. I will say that I did the home court thing to in order to do a different calculation on series prices. And I haven't actually quite figured out if that series price stuff is significant enough to tell anyone about. But I did think the home court was interesting enough to kind of put that out there as its own piece. So definitely sign up for that at thepowerrank.com. Also, I just definitely want to plug the pot I did with Sarah Bailey from Los Angeles Rams. It's pretty awesome. It's gotten some pretty good feedback so far. And the first time I've had anyone who works in the NFL on the show. So yeah, she talks about the lifestyle of working in the NFL and things that she does and working with Sean McVeigh, which I thought was very cool. So yeah, check that out. There's a little clip of it on my Twitter feed. But yeah, that's one that I would hope you go check out on the football and analytics show. I think, I haven't heard it yet. I need to go back and listen to it. But I think the Rams specifically are just in there because they seem to think about things differently than other teams in a positive way because they were talking about, they didn't want to waste their scouts' time by sending them to the combine. I think it was in 2020 or 2019. So they are taking the extra steps to identify where their inefficiencies and spending and time allocation. So I think listening to what Sarah had to say there might be especially pertinent. Find that by searching for the football and analytics show. Check out Ed on Twitter at the Power Inc. I am at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-M-N-E-S. Make sure you also follow the FanDuel Podcast Network at FanDuel Podcast. Big thank you to Calvin Theobald, our video producer for running the video side of things here today. Thank you, Cal, as always. And thank you to everyone for tuning in. Good luck with your NHL bets. Anything else for this weekend? If you're betting the Indy 500, the Coke 600, whatever it may be, we'll talk to you once again next week. This has been covering the spread right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network.