Thank you so much. It's so great to be here. I just want to say thank you on behalf of enable ventures, which is the first impact venture fund dedicated to closing the disability wealth gap and You know, it seems and it is actually rather improbable that I'm here at all I mean when you think about it less than two percent of venture capital is invested in female founders and entrepreneurs about About 11 percent of fund managers or women in a field where about 40 percent of VCs went to two schools and live in three cities You know, it's so improbable that I'm here You can't even imagine Because I'm working on issues that involve a group of people that we very rarely ever discuss at Convenience like this what an amazing thing it is that we're here today discussing the disability wealth gap But the improbability runs deep of my presentation today because you know In a situation where the field is so limited in diversity it really takes It really takes the support of a platform like the Sorenson impact platform To back a fund like ours enable ventures, which is one of the first Sorenson impact funds The improbability runs deep because I had a different life than my mother and my grandmothers I had access to an education that was different than theirs and You know growing up. I was often accused of being able to tuck the doors off a barn The bark off a tree So naturally I became a trial attorney and When I was a trial attorney, I represented the interests of people with disabilities across the United States I worked at the US Justice Department. I Filed the nation's first cases on behalf of workers who in the 21st century earned Subminimum wages on the basis of their disability. I I I've worked across the United States evaluating and learning and Understanding and meeting with people with a range of disabilities in a range of employment settings And what I can tell you over the course of that career my early career Was that people with disabilities are so disproportionately? Participants in an economy that involves rote manual work at the precise time that we are in an era of technological change digital revolution and different remote and flexible ways of working I Met people who had disabilities related to communication Who desired to work but lacked appropriate technology to communicate with their employers? I met people who had master's degrees Who were cutting pieces of rubber and sorting pieces of wood? Because they lacked access to skills training they lacked access to technological Technological tools that would help them compete in the global economy Today across the world There are 1.5 billion people with disabilities and rising and Nearly two-thirds of working-age people with disabilities are not in the labor market not employed You might ask yourself how a specialist In a particular category of labor and employment ended up on the stage Let me tell you something This is not a specialty topic this involves you and It involves you because what is disability? Disability is the human condition If you don't have a disability today, you are likely in your lifetime to age into one disability not only spans the gamut of age and human experience But it spans the gamut of our society People with intellectual emotional developmental disabilities mental and When we look at the age that we're living in we're living in an age In which we are all becoming more socialized to the need for flexibility and work The need for accommodation. We just lived through a mass disability event There are more people with chronic conditions with long COVID with the opportunity to request work in a different format education in a different way and What that all means to me is that there is an opportunity That doesn't come along very often for this group here today There's a multi-billion person demand for Inclusive products and services in our economy There's a rising generation of people in the United States and across the world That have experienced two things at the same time over the past 30 plus years And that is they've come of age in a world where they have acquired civil rights The ADA is 32 years old In that age they've acquired civil rights at the precise moment that there was a digital revolution At the precise moment the digital technology became So ubiquitous that 97% of people carry around a supercomputer in their pocket How is it that we live in a world in which we have a group of people that comprises a multi-billion person population That is over represented in manual skills labor and employment But I've got good news today I've got tremendous news that this rising generation is demanding more of themselves and society To include but not just to be included to lead When we look at what technology does for us Technology has the ability Has the ability to widen inequality or to advance radical inclusion And who are going to be the leaders in deciding which direction it goes? Well, what we're seeing is that there are people who are advancing the concept of human-centered design of Universal design inclusive design what it means that there are founders and entrepreneurs with disabilities here and across the world that are planning Pieces of technology that will reduce inequality that will drive changes in the global economy to include people in new career paths in new ways of working in new ways of Economically participating and they will do it because we'll reach a wider consumer market. They're stress testing products and services to include more people and Exclude fewer people their thinking of products and services is as the opportunity to build on ramps for people that have been historically left out overlooked Denied the opportunity to participate What that does is it reaches deep into the heart of the consumer market? It includes not just people with disabilities, but other consumers When you think about the last half century of innovation even a hundred years of innovation disability has its fingerprints on the things that we hold dear as Items of rapid innovation You know the typewriter who was an individual an Italian inventor who was blind Trying to write his friend and loved one a letter You know Alexander Graham Bell. He was obsessed with sound and acoustics because his parents were deaf His family members were deaf When we talk about SS SMS texting it came from a deaf gentleman trying to order a pizza When we're talking about the internet the backbone of the internet Was a disability innovation? Many of the things that you hold dear your electric toothbrush your audio books Sliding doors cruise control disability innovations. Why were those innovations so successful? Because the idea from their conception was to make the user experience more friendly To design in a way that has everyone in mind From the beginning to put our humanity and our personhood at the center of why we create Why we innovate for whom we innovate? The interesting thing about that is that so often until now inequality has been widened Because there have been so few people who invest in so few people who make in so few consumers who are served This is all about to change There's a multi-billion person demand for that to change There is a demand for assistive technology around the world One in nine people who have a technological need To help remove barriers to their daily lives and have a disability don't have the tech they need and Yet there's this rising group of founders with disabilities around the world who are tired of waiting for Godot They're not going to wait for somebody else to create a technology inaccessibly and sell it to them only to be remediated on the back end These founders are making their own way to build Inclusively not only to solve for their own impediments to economic participation But to drive economic participation in your life To improve civil society To improve the experience in the marketplace What we know to be true about disability today is That not only are nearly two-thirds of people with disabilities not employed Who are of working age? But that lack of employment has driven a two trillion dollar hole in the global economy in GDP That's a white space in our market That two trillion dollar hole is accompanied by a poverty dashboard that should make you sit up straight in your chair Nearly half of people in the United States who have disabilities Nearly half of people in long-term poverty in the United States have disabilities less than 1% of micro finance is accounted for in Accessing the disability population What we are dealing with is 40% unbanked underbanked individuals with disabilities with lack of access to commercial credit even fewer people with access to small business loans and Yet we know We know and understand that disability has always had a front-row seat It's been on the front lines of innovation in this country. The only thing that has been lacking Conspicuously is access to capital access to capital where talent lives throughout this country and throughout the world And what we're going to see today is a real game-changer on this stage later today You're going to meet five entrepreneurs who are working in the disability market. They represent many many people who aren't here today and It asks it makes us ask a question Why are they here now and why weren't they at Socap in the previous? previous 15 years The answer is that we need to have the intentionality to build on ramps to the economy We need to Intention our capital and our commitment into innovations that are lying in plain sight They're here today because we have built on ramps to Socap This venue was inaccessible until this year This stage was inaccessible until this year Our founders are demonstrably moved by our invitation to be here But that's just the beginning they will be moved by the opportunity to tell you about their companies and The solutions that they're advancing in the world They can make it here for the first time not in the audience but on the stage Why do you care? Why should you care? Here's why you should care When we talk about disability We're talking about DEI When we talk about disability we're talking about the front door to the economy People with disabilities are women people with disabilities are people of color. It's the one Social identity group that you can join at any time and that is so deeply intersectional with all other groups When you want to put human potential and human capital at the center of your investment portfolio You need to look at the whole human You need to look at the whole human experience Our founders are putting the human experience at the center of tech the center of innovation The center of the future of the economy who participates and who doesn't This is a real opportunity For the capital markets a real opportunity to see people who haven't been Seen before to the degree that they will in the future as innovators as makers as creators And we're very excited. We're very excited to welcome you to our panel this afternoon with our founders Thank you


Marcia Joyner and we are navigating the journey. Navigating the journey is dedicated to exploring the options and choices for end-of-life care and to assist people to talk about their wishes. It's time to transform our culture so that we shift from not talking about dying to talking about it. It's time to share the way we want to live our lives at the end of our lives and it's time to communicate about the kind of care we want and don't want for ourselves. We believe that the place for this to begin is not in the intensive care unit. So together we can explore the various paths to life's ending. Together we can make these difficult conversations easier. Together we can make sure that our own wishes and those of our loved ones are expressed and respected. If you're ready to join us we ask, navigate the journey. As you know we cannot talk about the end-of-life options without exploring the legislative actions of medical aid and dying. Today's guest is Hawaii Senator Lorraine Innoi, not related to the deceased senator. She is an experienced legislator of 40 years, a 40-year commitment to public service as member of Hawaii's County Planning Commission, Big Island Mayor, member of the County Council and twice state senator. The senator introduced the Senate bill on medical aid and dying. She introduced this measure last year in 2016 but it never heard in the consumer protection and health committees chaired by Ross Baker and the judiciary committee. Senator Innoi was one of several senators that voted for this bill in 2002 but it failed by three votes, just three votes. So therefore we have asked my dear, dear friend for 40 years to come back to talk to us about the bill and all that she's done over these last 40 years. So Senator Baker, oh my, what a mistake that is and we don't get to edit. Let's start, let's talk about you and all that you have done over these years as public service and then your flowers. All right, thank you Marsha. It's my pleasure to be here with you. It's just an honor actually, we go way back but we also thank you for your contributions to our society in the state and you have been a very, very great model for many of us women in particular. However, I have dedicated my life to do the people's work particularly concentrating on the Hawaii island but having had the honor of coming to Oahu and be a member of the state senate. Having said that I'm happy to be back here to return in the 2014 election as my constituents did say they wanted me back and not to retire from politics and so again where we are doing as far as I'm concerned my lifelong dedication is doing the people's work. Well now as mayor of the big island that's really a big island and just to drive from one end to the other is a day's so how do you reach all of your constituents? Well during my mayor's term as you did mention the geography of the big island is so expensive however that's a dedication that us politicians are committed to do whether you're going to drive over it takes two hours so 200 miles to reach the other side of the island in West Hawaii however I did make that commitment that I will do my best for West Hawaii as well. There were times that I did travel by helicopter as you know the county of Hawaii had a emergency helicopter but during times that I needed to be there on the other side of the island at a certain point of in time as well as to meet my obligations for my schedule in East Hawaii and so there were times that I did have to do that however in case that there was an emergency that I pledged that the helicopter is to make that commitment first so if they have to drop me off somewhere on the highway or in the sugar plantations and I'd like to talk about that because there was an there was a point in time that we ended up in the sugar plantation yes because we had a warning getting back into Hilo there was a warning light on the helicopter so our the pilot was just uh did his duty and he says mayor um there is uh we're traveling over Waipio Valley and into Hanukkah and god bless and thanks for the sugar plantations with areas that they kept like the roadways and those roads in Limbo was there for us so says we're gonna land there's a spot right there and I says okay uh I'm in your hands and I just prayed a lot to the dear lord well and the that island is so interesting because it's so different well so many what is it 11 different uh weather zones on one island and you can quarter the island and then you'll have all the different climates let me share with you the difference when I was mayor 1990 to 92 as we are here in um in 2000 um that as senator the district of course is much less than the the entire island as mayor however my district is from right outside of Hilo so if you look at the map and there's Kona my district includes Saddle Road the Daniel K. Noe Highway, Mauna Kea Mountain North so we have North Kohala we have parts of Kona past the airport so it takes me uh two hours Madam Pelle no no no I have not in your not in my district that is in Puna well okay yes yes but I have Mauna Kea okay and astronomy as well and so uh and the Pohakaloa training area the military camp uh PTA as we call it and so having said that it's rather interesting because now that we talk about energy in our my role as chair of transportation and energy is that um we're talking about electric vehicles and uh as far as I'm concerned I can't take advantage of it because we're not suited on the Hawaii island with uh with charging stations um to the point where we may need it in different areas so I would think with the tourism and Kona area and now the tourism because of Madam Pelle that you would have someone would be interested in the stations the charging stations oh yes eventually it'll come in that's what we've been we're working this year as well in our energy committee uh moving forward with with many many proposals before us and how we're going to place chargers and who's going to pay for it as well however uh having having said that it's um it's interesting to note that uh you did mention I was on the planning commission back in the 70s and that's how I did I started my political career as a young kid I would say and uh however I just wanted to share with the the audience out there that as a planning commissioner then we did not have the resorts so it started and and God bless the foresight of Governor Burns he created the Queen Kaahumano Highway to make it passable for all of us uh to to have a good highway system between Kona and the west east side and so there was no development however um there were there were proposals to rezone the entire region from near where the Manakea beach hotel is to the Kona area south Kona so I was on the commission of nine maybe seven at that time that rezoned the entire area into what we see today and I call it the diamond in the rough it is it it really is and of course with the marimona are coming up soon the whole world gets to see it exactly exactly so we have um during my lifetime uh serving as an elected official on Hawaii island um there were things that we did before that I can look back and say I did that exactly after that big rezoning on the planning commission we did another thing that is today very beneficial to the employment and the shopping opportunities for East Hawaii we did the rezoning so that what we have uh at the Prince Kohio Mall uh we have Walmart and those rezonings happened during my time so it's uh I'm I'm glad as I mentioned earlier my role is to do the people's work to make sure that we have job opportunities as well as the education system because we do have the East we do have the University of Hawaii at Hilo the Hilo campus uh we have now correct me if I'm wrong about the Hilo campus I was told it's the only one that has the pharmacy program is that correct correct and our first Hawaiian language program that it was implemented in our state and you can receive your master's degree in Hawaiian language at our campus when I was at the university uh Hawaiian was taught in the foreign language department now that's been a long time but that was in the foreign language department that was and at Manoa yes yes so so we've come a long way and I invite all of those out there please come to see that building it's just a beautiful building by itself not connected to the Hilo campus and it was designed by one of our architects who is from Hilo but has his office on Oahu oh okay yes we're proud of now I remember what was the storm oh the hurricane and hurricane I sell in 2000 two years ago two years ago 2014 and your plantation your your flowers your yes we do have my husband owns floral resources Hawaii he has several acres about 40 acres I personally own I I have no financial obligations to my husband's farms but I do have a 10 acre and theorem farm as well that I call Aloha Blooms and my husband is my partner I'm the president though oh good however I it's a joint joint venture joint venture however during I sell our farms experience the 80 percent damages by I sell and we're still looking for our inventory to market the flowers it's a slow process but you know farming is very challenging yeah so how often do you get back there I'm here and committed to be here as senator for the week however as we move towards our process before crossover time in in late February and March I sometimes stay here Saturdays go home the weekends and at times may not be able to go home and but my commitment is here I have a wonderful husband who's committed to be my who has been very supportive in the years that we've been married oh that's great and the name of your farm again my farm is Aloha Blooms okay now we have to take a break and when we come back we want to talk about the legislation okay we'll be happy to thank you Aloha my name is Josh Green I serve a senator from the big island on the Kona side and I'm also an emergency room physician my program here on think tech is called health care in Hawaii I'll have guests that should be interesting to you twice a month we'll talk about issues that range from mental health care to drug addiction to our health care system and any challenges that we face here in Hawaii we hope you'll join us again thanks for supporting think tech okay I'm here with Brett Obergaard of the faculty of school of journalism in the department of communications at UH Minoa we've had a number of shows we have a movable feast going on and we talk about journalism we talk about language we talk about communication in general and we talk about the effect of that on the country and on individual people Brett it's so good to be able to discuss this with you in our movable feast oh it's my pleasure this is a great opportunity you'll have to come back again and again okay deal that's the deal Brett Obergaard I'm Jay Fiedel we care about everything thanks hi we're back with Senator Inouye and we are going to she's taken us on this wonderful tour of the big island and I must say if you haven't been you must be I have enjoyed it so much now we're going to talk about your legislation and it is let me get the correct title here what is the correct title okay it's relating to aid in dying okay and for all of you that may not know it is about medical aid in dying for a terminally ill patient who has been certified that they have less than six months to live and that this is their choice that they get to choose and the doctor would write a prescription and they have to take it themselves the doctor does not administer this this is not getting rid of grandma kind of thing and so I'd like for you to tell us more about the bill what it says what it does not say and where are we in the process okay I do want to add Marsha recognizing that my bill senate bill 357 also has another measure that's authored and introduced by senator Rhodes and his bill is senate bill 1129 and as you did mention I've had been involved with this legislation as you mentioned and my interest in legislation when I first started in the early 2000 I was a senator elected in 1998 and 1999 was my first session however having noticed that we did there were there was a bill with regards to the same issue and I was very active that time to ensure that the my colleagues and those at that time had an opportunity to discuss that issue however the chair of health refused to hear the bill and so we needed to somehow force the chair which we rarely want to do but because of the issue and those in the communities that wanted us and our constituents to address something that they would like to make personal decisions for their end of life and so there were 13 of us and maybe even more had signed a petition to make sure that we can pull that bill out of the chairs committee so that we can all make sure that we want the bill heard and that's the challenging times we had and of course once it went on the floor we lost by three votes however over time I've I've had taken care of family and personal friends who had you know not an opportunity but as their time went by we're experiencing ill health and so I've personally watched them including my father-in-law who supported the bill measure in 2002 and said if I have cancer or something I would just want the family to know that I don't want to live through you know the pain and suffering and so he says my daughter-in-law will you please make sure that this you continue to do your work and so hence we also and I was more encouraged when Governor Brown last year or the year before decided he's going to join the other states like Oregon Washington Montana and Vermont that and he did not support the measure and he would clarify that when he signed it he says however we need to make sure that the people have a choice and it's not my choice to make decisions for them and so I was very encouraged and again that's why I introduced last year's bill however we're here today and I'm so happy in my discussions just to bring up and up to date as to what's happening at the legislature and the discussions on SB 357 and SB 1129. Senator Baker has told me she did take a poll amongst all of us and to also honor the polls that all of you out there did take recently that there are 80 percent of our Hawaii residents support the measure and so she did take a poll and she will be hearing this measure and she's looking at putting on the agenda SB 1129 on Senator Rhodes bill however the discussions that I hope that the community and people who want to see us make decisions this year please come and support Senator Baker's bills that she is going to introduce and on her agenda and Marsha I know you're going to be the charge with our dear friend Scott Foster who I've been so blessed to know for many years and we want participation we want people to come out and please send in your testimonies in support give the senator and her committee an opportunity to hear from your experiences out there and to ensure that something passes for the first time and make sure that we have good discussions and that it passes the senate make sure that there's something that goes over to the House and have their discussions now this is not a guarantee because we know what we know that we need two houses to pass a measure so we we request that all of you out there in the listening audience and those viewing this wonderful program and Marsha with your encouragement and the group out there please send in your testimonies support the bills now I'm the governor Igay was a member of the senate and you knew him well what do you think I know you don't know where he is but what do you think I can't remember how his vote was maybe you don't you know but they were okay all right however I think the governor at this point in time will address if there's any bills that will come before him I know he probably would think the same as we all do and I would encourage and we'll have some discussions with him I'm sure senator Baker will and many of us who want to see a measure at least supported by the governor having said that in the event that he vetoes I am sure if it goes on his desk that we will be able to override oh wow we've got that much support exactly so there is an opportunity that the legislature jointly we'll go back in session in case the governor vetoes which I I have a personal feeling that he would support the legislation that would be before him well I talked we did think tech yesterday live from the Capitol and we talked to the speaker of the house because he introduced the bill on the house side and he feels really confident about it I feel confident as well oh great yes and I'm so happy that our local newspaper on the Hawaii island did a great article and I've had numerous emails and phone calls and people who's I have not heard of for years or people throughout the island not only my district just thanking us for bringing this matter up and it's just an opportunity matter of fact one a couple my friend Sandy in my district from Waimea and she was the first to email me and she sent me an email yesterday saying my husband and I are going to Oahu yesterday we'll be here till Friday and for doctor's appointments however if there's anything that I can do or come in lobby please we want to help and so but I did tell her it's not on the agenda yet so don't reschedule your appointments with doctors what how long does it take before it's on the agenda okay it has to be heard before Thursday that's tomorrow Thursday next week yes so she has time so if it hasn't been posted now they are measures that probably she could have put a put a posting yesterday for Friday if it's not on the Friday calendar then it'll be probably heard uh anytime from Monday to Thursday the least Thursday morning I'm sure she would want to do it sooner like Monday Tuesday or Wednesday so she has hearings for three days okay four days actually before we deck the bills I think of course I'm a romantic a hopeless romantic so I would like to see it on Valentine's Day so we could say this is a gift to you know that you're a loving gift I have chicken skins for sure when you say that from the legislature but I'm like I said I'm a hopeless romantic so exactly but I needed to share with you that and I think Scott remembers the gentleman and that's why in 2002 I remember there was an elderly person who lived here on Oahu that lobbied us to hear that bill in 2002 and I'm getting kind of teary because when we did the vote in the chamber the old elderly man who was ill stood up and he was looking at us in the gallery for all of us to take the vote and I remember one of us did I could have been the person but I can't remember who did mention him in the gallery he was by himself and he knew his time was coming and he was introduced and he stood up and it was such an emotional time so we were trying to encourage our vote our colleagues to please give us at least three more votes it failed but I he must be looking at us today and saying thank you and I I just feel for him today so if it happens on Valentine's Day I want to have someone give me the gentleman's name so we can make a dedication to him when we pass the bill thank you thank you we will find his name okay thank you so much for spending this time with us and hope you'll come back I will when the bill passes yes I I and I'll bring senator Baker is that okay yes tell her I'm so sorry and and senator agaron because yes the judiciary chair okay because there are two key people okay thank you so much it's been a pleasure spending this time with you I love it's my pleasure


We started taking fire and everyone got into as much a cover and concealed position as they could get in and I heard someone yell It's our cue. It's our cue. You don't think about it That's another soldier and you need to do whatever you can possibly do to help them


Welcome to this lecture number 37 of groundwater hydrology course and in this particular lecture class, we will cover this modeling and management of groundwater. Consider this topics to be covered are Contaminant Source Identification and Monitoring Network Design. So, first topic is this Contaminant Source Identification. Why this Contaminant Source Identification? Groundwater contamination is a problem of worldwide concern and this in this often man-made causes are responsible either we can have some kind of geogenic source or we can have anthropogenic thing like arsenic problem is geogenic thing, but contamination there can be dumping of some pollutant in online ponds that is some kind of man-made cause. So, source identification is management necessity. Why it is necessary? It is necessary from groundwater management point of view. If we can manage or manage to identify the source, we can have some kind of remediation strategy, remediation strategy for that particular aquifer and we can decontaminate or we can start the remediation process in that particular aquifer. Next is effective remediation requires reliable source identification. So, this is the point that remediation thing we need some kind of proper estimate about the source both in space and time both in space and time and its strength also a key parameter for identification. So, useful in fixing liabilities for pollution. Let us say for man-made causes we cannot do with the do anything with the geogenic causes, but for man-made causes man-made causes it is important that we should fix the liabilities. So that if 1, 2 or 3 or 4 defaulters are present within that groundwater jurisdiction area then we can fix the share of their responsibilities for decontamination or some kind of price that they need to pay for the health related spending of that locality. So, what is this hydrogeology as forensic science and forensic because we need to identify the things properly without identification it is a difficult thing. And ethics in this field so we should have some kind of ethics and the safety of groundwater that is the most important thing without a proper management strategy or identification strategy we cannot protect our groundwater. So, what is the basic problem? Basic problem is that let us say we have a source S 1 another source S 2 and this rectangular part is 1 aquifer and this is let us say our wells W 1, W 2 wells W 1, W 2, W 3 and W 4 these are in the down gradient portion of the aquifer. Let us say this is your flow direction so with this aquifer configuration and these many observation well or monitoring wells we can identify the S 1 or S 2 in terms of its location whether S 1 is responsible whether S 2 is responsible in terms of its strength whether for the first year second year third year fourth year maybe S 1 is responsible for the contamination only in the second year, but in case of S 2 they are responsible for the contamination of first third and fourth year. That is also important to find out the activity period and so three things are important here source location this is source strength and their activity period so these three points are most important thing. So, in this case forward modeling will give us if we have this source and this strength this source and this strength it will give us some kind of breakthrough curve that is time versus concentration curve for W 1 location like this and for more forward modeling we can get W 2 or breakthrough curve for W 2 as this multiple peaks due to different strengths and their activity periods, but the complicated problem is that we may not have a proper observation or management plan in place and we do not have any proper monitoring strategy for that contaminated area. So, it may so happen that the contamination may be noticed after 10 or 20 years after it has started in that particular area. So, the problem is that inverse modeling, inverse modeling means we have the breakthrough curve maybe we can find the breakthrough curve in truncated sense truncated means let us say that we are starting the monitoring at the end of second year. So, we will get this part of the breakthrough curve only. So, same for this part let us say we have started this W 2 well observation well after third year. So, we may get this kind of breakthrough curve or truncated breakthrough curve. So, it is important that with this complete or truncated or limited information we need to have some kind of proper estimate of the source in terms of his strength, its location and its activity period. So, source location magnitude and period of activity are three important aspects. Now, what are these inverse problems? So, first type is backward or retrospective problem the initial conditions are to be found. Second one is coefficient inverse problem in this one classical parameter estimation problem where a constant multiplier in the governing equation is to be found out and boundary inverse problem some missing information at the boundary of a domain is to be found out. So, our problem is basically backward or retrospective problem. Inverse problems are mostly ill posed problems because most of the cases we may not have a unique solution for a unique inverse problem. So, difficulties in source identification sparsely distributed observation wells that is the most important thing because if there is no proper observation or monitoring network is there then it is a problem and sparsity of observation data, observation data is also sparse in nature inaccurate prediction of contaminant transport processes, modeling errors, measurement errors. So, one kind of error that may be there is related to modeling error another one is measurement error. So, sparsity of data error in measurement and error in modeling these three are the most important things for source identification. So, billions of possible discrete combination of magnitude locations and duration possible. So, there may be multiple combinations that will give you the same set of breakthrough curves that is available for a particular monitoring well. So, it is important that a proper strategy should be followed for monitoring otherwise there will be difficulties in identification of sources. So, we can have situations where let us say this is first kind of combination in our previous problem we are having S 2 and S 3 S 1 and S 2 these two are the sources. So, we have two things that this kind of S 1 combination and the second S 2 combination may give the same results in the down gradient monitoring wells in terms of breakthrough curves. So, other difficulties problems with delineating the physical extent of the area to be modeled because we need to have certain kind of limitation in terms of delineating the physical extent of the area uncertainties in the boundary conditions and initial conditions. So, the problem is that although our in terms of our classification we are interested in finding out the initial conditions, but boundary conditions are also important because physical extent is important and if you are considering if you are not considering a proper physical extent of the area to be modeled then boundary condition is a critical thing for modeling. So, uncertainties in estimation of flow transport parameters so, uncertainties are also there in terms of estimation of flow transport parameters like hydraulic conductivity, longitudinal dispersivity, transverse dispersivity these can play all also important role in modeling and identification of sources. And identification of unknown pollution sources belong to the category of inverse problem which are often imposed because we do not have a proper system in place for which we can say that this is our proper source that we have identified from our problem, but the problem is that we can have a multiple combination for which there will be same breakthrough curve in the monitoring wells and unique solution does not necessarily exist and solution may be unstable to small changes in the input data. So, sensitivity of the solution approach that is another important issue so, various processes involving solute transport in the porous media so, we can have advection processes where ground water flow is caused by gravity, next we can have diffusion molecular process where constituents are spread due to differences in concentration, next we can have dispersion mixing process caused by differences in velocity, in magnitude and direction of water particles and another one is adsorption process where certain constituents are attached to grain material and final thing is the decay. So, there will be combination of these processes which will dictate the source identification. So, proper transport process identification is the first part of any source identification problem. So, overall methodology is that we can have optimization model, optimization model we can have objective function and we can have Jacobian matrix and with this we can have some kind of search direction, step length and decision vector that can be determined and the most important thing is the flow transport simulation model. So, we can use our flow transport simulation model as linked simulation optimization model as external module and we can calculate our objective functions also our search directions. Search directions are basically dependent on the Jacobian matrix and with this Jacobian matrix it will give the proper direction, but the problem is that if you have a Jacobian matrix based approach then you may or may not get a proper global optimal solution. So, it is important that your selection of optimization model is also important thing. So, first is identification of proper transport process that is identification of proper numerical flow and transport simulation model to simulate the complex hydrogeological system. Next is identification of proper optimization model and intermediate things are your linking things these are intermediate calculations. So, in this case we can have two optimization problems. First one this is the observed concentration in monitoring well and this is our estimated concentration. So, this the square of this difference and this is a weighted one. So, weight is calculated like this, this is observed concentration plus eta value, eta is a small value which gives some kind of support for the weight, this C fq this is again our simulation model, this is restriction in terms of concentration, this is restriction in terms of our injection from sources. Let us say that there will be some kind of physical limit for the injection rate that is maintained with this particular constraint and there is some physical limit for concentration that is maintained with this particular constraint. And this is one particular component of our Jacobian matrix that is being calculated based on finite difference approach or difference approach. Second model is that your objective function is linear in nature, but our constraints are non-linear. Previously we have seen that our objective function was non-linear in OSIME 2 OSIME 1 and this is also non-linear constraint and these are our linear constraints. So, some literatures suggest that there is advantage in placing any linear objective function instead of a non-linear objective function. So, it is being converted like this, this is considered as equality constraint within the optimization problem. So, we need to incorporate some kind of errors. So, for a particular a hypothetically illustrative problem we have considered that this is a simulated value. Simulated value we have added some kind of error this it represents the measurement assumed error free it may represent a special case where the value is 0 and standard normal random variate for concentration. So, we can introduce some kind of error with the simulated values and we can create some observed value to test our two objective functions or our two formulations OSIME 1 and OSIME 2. So, what is our evaluation criteria? We have used this normalized error estimate for source fluxes, this is actual value and this is estimated value. So, this is average one for this is for a particular case. So, this is number of realizations. So, for multiple realizations what is the difference? So, from this we can get the standard deviation of the estimated source flux and this is the average estimated value of the source strength. So, let us consider one illustrative problem where we have three sources one S 1, S 2 and S 3 and we have three four monitoring wells W 1, W 2, W 3 and W 4. Out of this this thing is having two impermeable boundaries and two constant head boundaries these are linearly varying. So, in this direction and this is the final direction. So, this is the solution result for disposal period one it has been found that this is the actual flux and this is the estimated flux values. Though this is 47 from OSIME this is giving better result compared to OSIME 2 using this minus and NP Sol and this is actual flux 0 for all the cases this is 30, 30 is the strength and in case of Maharan Datta this was 29.92, this is 30, this is 29.99, this is 30 again this is 30 and for period two also the things are almost matching period three it is almost matching period four this both the methods are matching and case of NP Sol this OSIME 2 is performing better and in this case we have 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 sources or potential sources and this many pumping or observation wells and these two are basically pumping wells we have two zone case here and we have clean recharge pond we have zone 1 then zone 2 and this HT is time varying head which is defined like this and this is a constant head and these two boundaries are impermeable boundaries. So, with this kind of pumping rates these are the pumping rates for location 1, p 1 and p 2 have considered different scenarios scenario 1 that is error factor is theta that is 0.1 in the measurement data 5 percent increase in the hydraulic conductivities, 5 percent decrease in the porosity values, 5 percent increase in longitudinal dispersivity, missing data with error factor, concentration data during the first 5 years are assumed to be missing for observation wells 4, 5, 6 and 8 and observation wells W1, W13, W16, W18 the concentration data during the first 10 years are considered to be missing. So, in this case we can see that for different scenarios the error percentage is 9.98 percent this is 16.68, 9.23, 9.94 percent. So, graphical representation of different scenarios this is actual scenario and with actual scenario how things are varying here. So, conclusion is that with the linked simulation optimization model can potentially solve the large and complex system capable of incorporating erroneous concentration measurements and unknown parameter values missing observation data. So, monitoring is most important thing for any management problem or a source identification problem. Let us say this is our GL value GL and this is unsaturated part of the aquifer this is saturated part and this is our basically bedrock and unit of and this is our groundwater level in the aquifer. So, unit of groundwater level that is generally considered as H this H is a BGL value meter BGL. BGL is below ground level this is a piezometer a typical piezometer and this is the screen or well screen. So, with that we can monitor the groundwater level in any area. So, this is about the water level what about the contamination. Let us say we have a point source and we have three down gradient locations this is the direction of hydraulic gradient. So, ideally this point source should be detected by this particular monitoring well and if we estimate the concentration there. So, we can correctly identify that point source, but in reality the situation is different our soil is highly heterogeneous and due to that heterogeneity the point source may be detected by may be detected by the third well which is another well. So, the selection of sampling schedule under budgetary limitation that is one most important thing. So, monitoring network is basically that finding out that sampling schedule under cost constraints. So, long term groundwater monitoring is important. So, first thing is ambient monitoring which is basically regional annual monitoring for water safety, detection monitoring watch dog watch a dangerous spot for detection, compliance monitoring evaluate the progress of any management policy or remediation process, research monitoring is that monitoring for a specific research purpose. So, out of that most of the cases compliance monitoring is the important one. So, a site with 30 wells and single constituent single chemical constituent to measure at each well would have 2 to the power 30 or 1 billion possible sampling plants either 0 or 1 either 0 or 1 whether to monitor or not to monitor that way we have 2 to the power 30 solutions. So, any trial and error method is unlikely to identify the most effective sampling plan. So, mathematical optimization can effectively identify the most effective sampling plans to identify to satisfy any monitoring objective that can be quantified. So, objectives for monitoring one objective is minimization of concentration estimation error second one is minimization of uncertainty, third one is this mass estimation error minimization of error in locating plume centroids, maximization of spatial coverage and all are subject to budgetary limitation. So, basic approach is that we have the formulation we have optimization problem we can find out the optimal solution either local global or robust optimal. Ideally if we have a large number of iterations then it should reach to this x should reach to the ideal global optimal solution and linearity or convexity of the constraints space those are important things and we need to select proper optimization algorithm for guaranteed global optimality. So, spatial interpolation of concentration is important because we can have some kind of monitoring information for any selected locations or for other locations we can get some kind of estimate about the concentration from the some kind of interpolation spatial interpolation technique. Distance inverse distance wedding or IDW is the most common method where this W L is the weight 1 by W L x this is the distance between two points that is L and x to the power p p is the exponent D L is the distance or this estimated value for any particular attribute or parameter is estimated summation of W L x F L L is in the neighborhood points of j. So, j is if we are estimating the value for j and n b is the neighborhood set then L is in the neighborhood set of that neighborhood set of j this is weight this is the actual value this is again summation of total weight. So, one illustrative thing is that let us say we have this configuration where a and b two wells are unmonitored locations, but other locations we have monitored situation. So, if we are drawing this triangular neighborhood locations. So, for a we will see that e is the neighborhood location for a and in case of b f will be the neighborhood location for b, but the problem is that a e this distance is far compared to a b. So, that this information of b should be utilized while calculating a and information of a should be utilized while calculating the value of b. So, this is estimated value. So, we should have some kind of this is actual values in the neighborhood plus estimated value of b while calculating or estimating the concentration at a. Similarly, this is while calculating or estimating the value at b we need to use the concentration values which will be estimated using our previous equation. So, these two equation will act as constraints in our optimization model because these two variables are unknown. So, we can write it in disjunctive form that is if a well is monitored then we have actual value otherwise it should be based on the neighborhood concept or we should get the estimation from the neighboring points. If we use big M relaxation. So, this is a large value of M and this xi this chi thing this has got 1 if a particular location is monitored otherwise it is 0 if particular location is not monitored. So, for this particular form of constraints we can use this to get two sets of constraints that is if it is monitored then this chi equals to 1 1 means this is less than equals to 0 and this is again greater than equals to 0 that means ideally this should be both the equation will converge to the equality constraint and this Cj will be calculated based on this actual value otherwise it will be calculated from this particular equation. So, variogram is important thing. So, it is basically gives some kind of idea about the spatial variability of any attribute. So, this is the H or this lag distance between two different spatial points. This is the variogram value and variogram is calculated like this variance half of the variance between U plus Z U plus H and Z. Z is any particular attribute for our case we can calculate concentration value using this approach and the C is covariance and covariance is related to this gamma infinity. This gamma infinity is basically a constant value minus gamma H. So, we can use this expression for our calculations. So, ordinary Kriging is basically minimization the estimation variance subject to our constraints that is estimation in terms of these weights and weights should be such that the summation of weights should be 1. So, finally, we can get this particular set of equations and we can solve it and we can get the value of lambda and mu for our particular problem and we can also estimate the variance for any particular problem. For ordinary Kriging these are the potential monitoring locations. So, while if it is monitored then this part is not required this is lambda is basically zero and based on the thing that a potential monitoring location and unmonitored location we can use the Big M method to write our original Kriging equation like this. And we can have situations where chi i and chi l this is 1 1. 1 1 means this is represents the situation like this that a particular row or column whether it will be used or not that will be determined by the value of chi i and chi l and this left hand side this whole thing is represented as this chi i l. So, we can use this as constraints for our optimization problem and we can finally, get these constraints. So, these are basically spatial constraints in case of IDW we have seen we have got a set of spatial constraints these are spatial constraints for our optimization problem related to groundwater monitoring. So, now the formulation in formulation basically this is actual value this is estimated one and actual value divided plus this is eta, eta is some number which varies between 0 to 1 and this is number of wells and number of time periods. So, at the end of any particular time period and for a particular well this is valid and we need to minimize the total deviation and this is basically normalized deviation and absolute of normalized deviation. And this is the cost constraint we can install only p number of monitoring wells out of this NW impossible potential monitoring wells. And we have that IDW or ordinary querying for spatial interpolation. So, if we see our objective function this is having absolute operated and it is like this blue line and if we differentiate it it will be a discontinuous function. So, it is better if you convert it into linear formulation you have we have found out a linear equivalent thing of that. So, this is the linear equivalent thing and positive and negative. So, both are positive and we can minimize this if this is 0 that means we have got 0 estimation error and this is basically to balance or to calculate the absolute operators and C j it should have a proper value which should be greater than equal to 0. This can be solved using any algorithm for optimization algorithm lingo or seplex. If you have the linear mixed integer programming then it will guarantee global optimality. So, for a particular study area decreasing agent trichloroethylene or TCE 8 sampling events from December 99 to 2001 this was this methodology was tested for Fort Lewis logistic certain centurion the Spears County of Washington. And for these are the boundary wells these are the boundary wells and these are the inner wells. So, for this is the concentration contour for 2000 data and this is a scale we can see that we have these many wells and out of that we have IDW scenario where only September data 2000 was used ID2 scenario only September 2000 data with boundary well restrictions was used that all boundary wells should be selected and IDW scenario 3 that is all 8 time period data was used and scenario 4 all 8 time period with boundary well restriction was used and ordinary creaking scenario 5 only for September data was used. So, in this case the performance measures where this particular relative estimation error that is average value based on number of wells removed or eliminated number of time periods same here this is RMSE or a root mean square error difference between the actual value and this is the estimated one and error plots shows some interesting results. So, interestingly if we have out of these many wells if you have only 27, 26 or 25 wells the error is almost negligible for scenario 1, but if we remove more number of wells that is 6 wells if we remove then it will be a problem out of this wells if you remove more number of wells then it will be a problem and interestingly if you remove more number of wells again this error is decreasing. So, we can infer that not only the number of wells also configuration is important for any monitoring network. So, particular configuration can give a lesser error compared to a monitoring network where we have more number of wells. So, IDW scenario have compared this with the existing existing solution and this is our IDW scenario 1 is far better compared to existing results also for up to 17 percent reduction in wells this is performing better as have already told that configuration of monitoring wells that is also important thing here and for ordinary creaking scenario it out performs the existing results. So, these are the removal locations for both the cases we have found out a different configuration that is why our results are better. So, number of variables with so many number of variables it is giving a guaranteed optimal solution because our optimization problem is linear in nature and our approach that is also proper. So, that is why it is giving a guaranteed global optimal solution. So, you can see that ordinary creaking scenario have 1020 and NW that is 30 integer variables. In last case we have 1020 real variables and this 30 integer variables. So, this is all about optimization thing and in optimization basically we have covered this monitoring network design part and now you can see that what is the importance of optimization in monitoring network design method logic. So, with this lecture 37 ends


Russian soldiers captured German Leopard Tank for the first time. During the battles for Abdiyivka, the most modern German tank, Leopard 2A6, was captured by Russian soldiers. This is the first tank that Russia was able to capture out of 18 Leopard 2 tanks imported from Germany. According to Bulgarian military media outlet, some Ukrainian resources have acknowledged the loss. The German publication build also confirmed the loss. According to build, 18 Leopard 2A6 tanks delivered by Germany to Ukraine, and this is the first proven instance of a tank being captured by the Russians since the deliveries began. The Leopard 2A6 is one of the latest versions of the renowned German tank. Germany is currently developing the next two iterations, the Leopard 2A7, which has its customers mainly in the Hungarian army, and the Leopard 2A8, which remains somewhat of a mystery. However, Italy has expressed a strong desire to acquire hundreds of these units. Germany also plans to include the 2A8 version in its own army. According to Russian resources, the captured Leopard 2A6 is fully operational. The tank features side hatches, but the so-called cage atop the dome is notably absent. The grills on the side of the turret are designed to deflect some of the explosive force of an incoming anti-tank missile. These sources assert that the tank was seized while fighting near Abdiivka. According to Russian reports, the tank was ambushed by a small Russian platoon, an action that compelled the Ukrainian tank crew to abandon their vehicle. As reported by the German publication build, the German Ministry of Defence is deeply invested in monitoring the status of the Leopard tanks they delivered to Ukraine. German journalists claim that a significant portion of the total 18 tanks shipped to Ukraine required frequent repairs at specialised bases. Iran-backed Houthis escalate their attacks, threats to US warships increase. The Houthis of Yemen think they're at war with the West. According to Bloomberg, with the news that three undersea fibre optic cables were severed off the Yemeni coast and that one of their ballistic missiles took lives for the first time upon striking a container ship, it's time to acknowledge that we are at war with them. The much harder question is how to fight this kind of asymmetric foe. What the Houthis are proving is that the developed West faces rising challenges on two fronts, from weaker enemies ranging from non-state actors to the likes of Iran and Russia. And for all the still extraordinary power of US carrier fleets, the answer to those challenges can't always boil down to just getting tougher, drawing lines and establishing deterrents the standard Washington strategy. Recently US British forces shot down dozens of kamikaze drones, missiles engaged in an attack launched by Iran-backed Houthis in the Red Sea region. The Houthi operation, largest reported to date, was against a Singapore flagged, cargo ship and several American warships. The Houthis military spokesman Yahya Saari confirmed the strike and said the attacks would continue until the aggression stops and the siege on the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip is lifted according to Iran international newsroom. The Houthis have been targeting commercial vessels and often US warships in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden since November, disrupting global maritime trade, forcing major shipping companies out of the region, sinking one ship and killing three civilian crew members. The attacks began after Iran's ruler Ali Khamenei called for Muslims to blockade Israel. The swarm attack last Saturday may be seen as a significant escalation since it's much more likely that one out of the many drones flying together evades the defense systems and hits a US warship, which would force the Biden administration to elevate the level of its response, possibly even targeting Iranian assets. This time, however, no US or coalition Navy vessels were damaged in the attack and there were also no reports by commercial ships of damage, according to US Central Command. The action was taken to protect freedom of navigation and make international waters safer and more secure.


I'm your host, Grace Chang, here today with Professor Patricio Abinales of the University of Hawaii to talk about Duterte's mouth and Philippine politics today. Welcome, Professor Morales. Thank you.  Yeah, you can call me Jojo. Yes, and we're going to talk about the president of the Philippines today and Philippine politics as we're seeing it unfold recently. It's very, very eventful. And you teach Asian studies at the University of Hawaii. I do. And I run the Philippine seminar. And I'm running a new course called Food and Culture in Asia. Oh, interesting. For undergraduates. Yeah. And you've been at the University of Hawaii for five years now. Yeah, I'm going into my sixth year. Okay. Yeah, and welcome to the program. Thank you. Nice to have you here. Could you tell us a little bit more about your background before we begin? Oh, I had a very circuitous background. I come from the southern part of the Philippines in the now. I went to the University of Philippines in 72. We were the freshman year when Marcos declared martial law. So I never learned about democracy for the next 15 years. And then I taught the university before I accidentally ended up in grad school in Cornell. It's a long story. And I stayed there and met my wife there. And after that, we went to Ohio. My wife got a job there. And then we moved to Kyoto, Japan. And we stayed there for 10 years. And then Hawaii, UH, who hired me. Well, this title of today's program, Duterte's Mouth in Philippine Politics Today, this was your suggestion. And it's kind of, it came, it came a couple of weeks ago, but it's kind of perfect because the end of last week, President Rodrigo Duterte, he said he would stop cussing. And he's been a very interesting personality to have, as the head of state of the Philippines. And subsequently quickly broke that promise. But he's been a very dynamic figure and a bit of a controversial one. And a little bit of enigma, I think, from on this side of the Pacific to understand him. Yeah, he is. Well, Filipinos in the U.S., apparently, who could vote in the Philippines, voted highly for him. I think they say 40%. He's a very popular president among people in the South outside of Manila. He's a new politician for them, partly because he was mayor. And he's the first mayor to become president. And if you know the local politics in the Philippines, it's very personalized. It's all this glad handling and cursing and getting people to vote by paying for their ballots and all. And so what has happened is, the sort of language in local politics, which includes a lot of cursing, now becomes nationalized. He brings it there. And so my reaction to him, because I speak the same language as him, is to think of him of how my aunts curse. He actually reminds me of my aunts when they're drunk. They curse like them. So I grew up with that. I grew up in a small town where every campaign, political campaign, politicians would go up in the stage and curse everybody. I went to jail and I found him with his mistress. So it's called a tabloid type of speeches because you have to control the crowd. So you have to be an actor and all that. That's him. That's him. And the problem is he still thinks, I think he's still mayor of Davao City as his president now. And people tend to fail to remind him of that. So he's not, therefore, if you want to understand why he curses a lot, that is coming from the kind of city he grew up in. It was a... Davao in the 1960s was known as Las Vegas of the south, the Philippines south. There's a lot of smuggling. There's a lot of gambling. A lot of smuggled goods were coursed through Davao because he had a nice port. And it was also a town where some of those unusual characters become mayor. There was a former communist guerrilla who was sentimented and now supposedly to expand the movement there ends up disconnected from his comrades. And so he settles to Davao, becomes the police officer, police chief, and becomes mayor. So it's sort of a frontier town. And it has a gesture of university, but it never really went as high as in terms of exposure like Manila. Manila is the big metropolis because it's very cosmopolitan. Davao is not until very recently. And so the 30 became famous for the reason. One is he was actually the first one, the only mayor to bring peace to the city. In the 1970s, the Communist Party had urban guerrillas in the city and organizing them, organizing protests and strikes there. But then the military formed anti-communist anti-groups. So Davao city became a battle zone. In fact, the section, the section of Davao called Agdao, people call it Nicaragdao. Everybody, every day there was killings and all, over and above smuggling the drug trade and everyone thing. The 30 came to power promising to bring peace into Davao. And the story goes that the first thing he did was eliminate the right wing militia and then come to terms with the communists saying you can do your ambushes, you can ambush militias outside of major city jurisdiction. Don't come in, don't make, don't do trouble in the city. And then went after the targets indicates because he wanted to control, I mean the large part of Davao city were controlled by drugs indicates. And that's how this extrajudicial killing started. In the meantime, the history of president, when he became mayor, he became mayor, he's one of the first mayors in the Philippines to legalize prostitution. So he has houses for prostitutes, if they are sex workers, if they are, if they are beaten up by their parents, they have free medical care. He's also the first mayor of city council issued a statement in favor of LGBT. No other mayor did that. He's pro-environment, and he actually is in favor of free hospitals. In the 80s, they experimented with this, but it didn't work.  So it's very socially minded, and that allows for a couple of things. He has one of the most unusual coalitions in the city, because it consists of traditional politicians, reformists, and communists, and liberals. So they all work together under him. And that accounts for a number of things. It cleaned up the city. When I was doing my field research for my dissertation, I was in Davao. And one of the things that really fascinated me was every time Duterte catches someone who's trying to achieve, you know, stealing money from a taxi driver, he calls all the taxi driver per radio and says, line up a city hall, one punch each before I send this guy to jail. So these guys are like, wow. And people respond, you know. They're a different kind of justice. They're a kind of justice.  So that's kind of a frontier, a kind of frontier by a character that made him. Some of the interesting developments that we met after I left was, it's one of the most no smoking cities in the Philippines. And it's one of two cities in the Philippines where nobody, everybody stops on a red light at 2 a.m. for fear that he might be around and he'll beat them up. And no smoking zone if you follow the speed limit. And that's basically it. And he has 99% support from the town. So many kind of social justice minded and he's been pretty effective. Even if heavy handed, I mean, that's one of the things I think in the U.S. press we hear most about him. We haven't heard that much about his previous political career, but as far as his conduct with the war on drugs, he's been pretty heavy handed as you were mentioning, how he cleaned up against the right wing militias when he was mayor. And it seems like he's been doing, using similar tactics on China. And that's I think the more worrisome because now you're dealing with the nation, you're not dealing with the city. And he thinks that the war he waged against criminals and drug addicts in the city could apply to the larger network, the nation. And I think that's a very big problem for him because you're president now. You have to have some, you represent the country.  Even among Filipinos who expect their president to be at least honorable in principle. And so that's the problem that he has to face now. But then his reaction is typically the reaction of a mayor.  You know, turn around and do something else. So it's, I think, difficult for his staff to handle someone like him now. It's also more difficult the fact that he actually, well, he reads a lot. He actually has this series of biases against the United States. And it's a personalized kind of politics now. Okay, yeah, because I mean, the relations with the U.S. has been, I guess, sort of turned around a little bit because of some of the things like, for example, yeah, the war on drug has conduct because, you know, some of the U.S. Senators on the Foreign Relations Committee are saying we will no longer sell the assault rifles, the national police, if they're going to use it, to violate human rights. And then also his President Duterte's recent statement that he announced the separation of the Philippines from the United States. Well, I think it's the product of, what he thought was a personal insult by the U.S. government on him. In 2004, an American sort of fortune seeker landed in Davao sending messages to the different rebel groups saying that he knew how to make bombs. One of the bombs he made exploded in his hotel room. And so he got hospitalized and was to be arrested. But while he was in the hospital, the U.S. Embassy came in and took him away and sent him back to the U.S. without informing Duterte. Now, remember, local mayors think of themselves as running cities on a personal basis. So he thought he considered it as an insult to his position as mayor. And so he's responsible that the U.S. military officers in Davao City, they could not come in. And then there's the story about him being denied a visa to the United States when he was trying to visit his girlfriend. And they think that that also was, you know, the emulation of having to line up and being told by a young consul that you can't, you know, go to the United States because with no explanation at all, hit on him. The third thing is, when he was a young man, he started under one of the founders of the Communist Party of the Philippines. You know, he was around in the sixties. It was the era of protest. It was also the era of Filipino nationalism and with a big segment of that led by Communists. So he was politicized by these professors and he still calls them professors. And he carried that to them. And of course what happened then is, as mayor, he took the criticism very personally and then lashed back at the U.S. This I think he can do it. He thinks he's stronger than anybody else. Yeah, he's made a lot of very strong statements. That's for sure. And I think it's raised a lot of eyebrows but interesting to hear about some of his background where he might be coming from. So thank you, Professor Avinalis. We will take a short break. You're watching Global Connections. I'm your host, Grace Chang, talking to Professor Patricio Avinalis about Duterte's mouth in Philippine politics today. We'll be back in a minute. Aloha, my name is Mark Shklav. I am the host of Law Across the Sea. Join me every other Monday when we bring lawyers who know how to get across the sea to meet people and resolve problems into your house. Thank you. Hello, my name is Crystal. Let me tell you my talk show. I'm all about health. It's healthy to talk about sex. It's healthy to talk about things that people don't talk about. It's healthy to discuss things that you think are unhealthy because you need to talk about it. So I welcome you to watch Quok Talk and engage in some provocative discussions on things that do relate to healthy issues and have a well-balanced attitude in life. Join me. I'm with Professor Patricio Avinalis of the University of Hawaii, where he's a professor of Asian studies and we're talking here today about President Duterte of the Philippines, the title of our program, Duterte's Mouth and Philippine Politics Today because of the interesting things that President Duterte has been saying. Welcome back, Professor Avinalis. Thank you. So as we were talking about, you were providing us with some really interesting background as to maybe some of the ways that President Duterte is seeing the United States because his announcement of the separation with the U.S. and his kind of suggestions that we should cut these, perhaps cut the mutual defense treaty and joint military exercises. This is kind of, nothing has happened yet. This is coming from his mouth, but it is something that, I think, has raised a lot of eyebrows and some concern. Definitely, yeah. Because if you go down into the level of the bureaucracy, that's a completely different matter. I mean, the military, the military, especially the units operating in the south, you know, protecting the south from terrorists and infiltration trying to police this. It's a Muslim separatist group there, armed group. It's a Muslim kidnapping enterprise called Abu Sayyaf. These guys are able to contain these threats because of the help of American special forces. So they're worried about that. Intelligence that Americans' special forces provide was very instrumental in the death of a couple of kidnappers from the leaders of the Abu Sayyaf. And the other thing is the next generation, this senior generation of military officers have actually shifted away from being an insurgent force into an external defense force. And their training is in the U.S. They went to Fort Bragg, they went to Monterrey. So the kind of mentality they have is very American in training. And down from military exercises, tactics and strategies to the kind of bullets that you have is very much connected to the U.S. So that's the first thing that I think is going to be a deterrent to the 30th proclamation that he will separate the Philippines from the U.S. The second one is 92% of Filipinos love the United States. More than Americans. So there's a pure research study that showed which countries love the U.S. the most. Israel and the Philippines topped everybody else. And the U.S. I think was number four, number five. So 91% of Filipinos are pro-U.S. And there was a survey done on national and locally two weeks ago determining what Filipinos think of the Chinese. That's very negative. So he will encounter this. And there's what, 8 million Filipinos in the United States alone. 20 billion dollars of the income of the country are remittances from Filipinos abroad, including me. So his minister of finance says, okay, I think there's a limit to this. And I think the only one who's towing the line is the foreign secretary. But the major military and the finance sector, finance department are definitely saying you can do that. Yeah, because in the Philippines gets the most U.S. aid for maritime security in Southeast Asia, and especially with the conflict with China over the West Philippines, the Chinese called the South China Seas, and with this pronouncement of his separation from the U.S., Duterte has also suggested he wanted to move close to China. So this is very surprising given these kinds of conflicts in the nearby waters. Yeah, it's another contradiction here. The Chinese, I think one of the reasons why he's pro-China is the fact that if you go to Mindanao, his island, the Chinese are the fastest-moving, fastest-rising investment, as the fastest-riding investment in the island. Mining, export crops like from bananas, the pineapples, fish. So these are, these industries are targeting China now as the huge market. In other parts of the Philippines, Chinese investments are not really that high. So if you aggregate it, it's not really big, it's like 0.3%. If you stock where they're going, they're going to Mindanao. And therefore that's one reason, one financial reason why, one economic reason why Duterte says, you know, we have to get closer, have closer ties with China. Yeah, yeah, yeah. But it's very surprising, I mean, as far as he doesn't seem to be so concerned about the conflict over the territorial waters. No, and, oh yeah, because I forgot one thing about local politics in the Philippines.  Everything is run personally, and coalitions and alliances go shift. And one of the things that's very, most local politicians do in terms of pragmatic politics is marry off the son to the rival's daughter to the United States. So for him, it's not a question of principle, it's a question of being pragmatic about it. We won't win a war against China. It's trying the way to settle it with China. I don't know, most Filipinos agree in principle, but probably are worried about going to China but then leaving the United States. Yeah, I mean, yeah, in other countries, there's kind of, you know, ambivalence about China before China's so-called rise, this kind of free market, which is led by Western economies, didn't really bring a lot of results. And so actually with Chinese going out more into international markets, there has been more immediate results. So I think there is kind of some, a little bit of interest in, well, what is the Chinese model, development and courting Chinese investment. But yeah, there's a lot of ambivalence about that I can see. But his, Duterte's envoy to China, Fidel Ramos, former president, he recently resigned, correct? It sounds like within the political decision-making elites in the Philippines, they're not necessarily with him on this. I think there is considerable debate inside. The one thing I forgot is that the 10 richest families in the Philippines are of Chinese Filipinos and have considerable investments in China and Southern China especially. That's one factor. But you're right. I think the cabinet meetings are, you know, becoming more and more divisive. There's debate on policy, because he brought in some communists into the cabinet, too. Very anti-American, along with pro-U.S. business officials. And this is reflected, this is probably one of the 100 reflectives of the way he governs. He focuses on one issue unless the others run the other issue.  So with the economy, with politics, agriculture, land reform, he passes down to appropriately secretaries and allows them to resolve things. It works with the city, but it doesn't work nationally. And I don't know how he's going to deal with this. I wrote a comical piece about his first day in cabinet where everybody was shouting at each other and he threatened to kill them. So I think the cabinet meetings are going to be more and more divisive and rancorous, I think. Yeah. Well, it's not that unusual. I mean, we're seeing in the American presidential elections that, yeah, there are people who are unsatisfied with kind of the way things have been going. Moving very slowly, change isn't moving within politics, isn't moving as quickly as change in people's lives. And there are some people who have some more radical or radically different approaches and that seems to be the case here, as we see, but not terribly unusual, I mean, as far as around the world. Yeah. I mean, Filipinas want peace. Peace in their communities, stability in their communities and the first culprit that they see is the drug addict in the corner selling, or the drug pusher selling, you know, heroin or methamphetamines for the children. So when he does this, you know, for Filipinos in these communities, it's a good sign that, you know, the most number one problem in the community has disappeared and now they can go on with their lives. So that's one of the reasons why it's very popular at the local level, especially among the poor. Yeah. Yeah, because people have immediate problems. It seems like he's been very at least effective and they can immediately grasp the impact of his approach. Would you say that the average person in the Philippines cares so much about his foreign policy, unlike, you know, you were talking about the decision makers in the defense or finance ministry? I think only in vaguely, they say, well, you know, sure, by guns in China, oh, it's worrisome to have the Americans cut off aid.  So it's no question that Filipinos are still applying in the big numbers to the U.S. to become immigrants. Like 4,000 Filipinos leave the international airport every day in search for jobs. So I think there's about 12, 13 million Filipinos abroad now. Yes. And so the sound bites are there because of TV and everything, but I doubt if it has really sunk in the most Filipinos' mind. I mean, it hasn't that sunk into my brother. My brothers are like, okay, sure, as long as he kills the drug addicts in our street, then that's fine with me. Yeah. He can do anything he wants. So he's popular in Mindanao, which is in the southern part of the Philippines. What about in other parts of the Philippines? It's popular in the North because he's allies with the children of Ferdinand Marcos. Uh-huh. He's unused. Actually, he's very, very popular among the elites. Is that right? Because of the peace and order thing. Filipino elites are just quiet about it, but they're happy that you have somebody who's guns of the crime. Is that popular among the intellectuals in the middle class? Because these are the groups that follow the law, that respect the law. So he's not popular. He's very popular with the Muslims, by the way, because they're going to give them their autonomy. So against him, it's a very formal group of civil society organizations, university presidents, university kids. And that's a very... They're fighting a lost cause at the moment. Yeah. Yeah. So very mixed feelings among different constituencies. That's very interesting. Yeah. My friends back home call me a moderate, the third neurologist. Because I had to go back and forth from Mindanao. So it's interesting to have somebody from Mindanao become president for the first time. And somebody who speaks my language, including the metaphors, as I said, told you. I spend more time laughing at these curses than being shocked by it, because I grew up with it.  You see this off the mark remark. He throws away his speech and rumbles about China and separation and joining an alliance with Russia. And that's also worrisome, because then his cabinet officials have to figure out what he was really saying. Yeah. And there's criticism there. So let's see what happens in the next, by the end of the year. Yes. Because he's only been in office since June 30th, but already made quite an impression overseas. And I'm sure among Filipinos within the country. Right. Well, thank you so much for coming here, Professor Alvinales. And I hope we'll see you again sometime. Oh, I'd be happy. Just give me a call. OK. Excellent. All right. You've been watching Global Connections with Grace Chang here with Professor Pedro Gil Alvinales talking about Philippine politics today. Join us next Thursday at 1 p.m. for more Global Connections.