Thank you for this. It's really nice to see comparisons between Latin America and Africa. It's awesome And I have like a small question for Simone. Have you perhaps considered doing the same analysis for South Africa? Because then like the whole labor RTI could be really interesting to see. Thanks. And the second one, if I can take advantage of the mic, have you tried to see whether the nature of growth or the way in which the economy moves is driving this process of polarization in the labor market? Thanks. Thanks very much for all the presentations. It was very interesting to see these comparison. So I was, I'm sorry Simone, I don't have much to say about Ghana, but I was intrigued by the by the references to the minimum wages for both Brazil and Argentina. I understand Sergio, this is not part of your analysis, but you were referring to other things. And I was in particular wondering whether these how binding is the minimum wage in this country and how binding was it to start with? So you were making a reference to the fact that the minimum wage rose in real terms and at the same time we saw falling for, sorry, increasing formalization and a kind of more poor kind of growth. If I think from the standpoint of Colombia, 50% of people earn below the minimum wage and so the minimum wage is by no way poor. It sort of benefits the more the middle classes. So I was wondering a little bit how that's the minimum wage fit the overall story and the poor part of the conclusions. Okay, yeah, thank you. Actually, there's a study on South Africa that was done by Haroun Borat together with Amy and think something interesting that they were looking at like they disaggregated the patterns by gender and they found quite different patterns depending on whether you were looking at male or female workers. So in South Africa, you had this phenomenon that female workers largely stayed in the domestic service occupations and they saw kind of a move towards this low-skill routine manual work that was still dominant there and then you had a more polarizing pattern among the male labor force. The working paper is on the wider website, if you're interested in that one. Regarding the process of growth, I think what we have been looking at in a way is this kind of lack of growth in the manufacturing factor or this kind of absence of industrialization patterns and this move of workers towards informal service sector jobs and something that we have been struggling with to some extent is deciding on are those routine jobs or non-routine jobs that are done in the informal sector basically because on the one hand it's very ad hoc, so it's very non-routine in a way, but probably it's jobs that you could get rid of often or that could be optimized in a in a way kind of and I think this is something that we have been doing some extra coding on also to try to to get those right, yeah. Okay, so about minimum wage and inequality, so yes, you're right, we did not do this here but I've done that in a previous paper with Shikou Fihiri and Julian Messina and there are many other papers looking at that, so in our paper that this other one what we do is look at two sub-periods from 94 to 2002 and 2002 to 2012, okay, and what we see is that wage and inequality or earnings inequality was decline even in this during the 90s, but not as sharply as in the 2000s and there was a real increase in minimum wage at that time that produced unemployment and increase in inequality in that period, but during the 2000s when it had income growth in that period what we saw is that we had a real minimum wage increase, so basically it more than doubled in real terms and when I look at the wage distribution, it's funny to see that it becomes very concentrated around minimum wage, so when you say that half of the population in Colombia workers are making less than the minimum wage, they're probably also somehow their earnings are related to minimum wage, they're earning probably, no, okay, so that used to be the case in Brazil No, no, yeah, but we informally in Brazil is really high but when you see minimum wage being binding is at the informal sector in the known register with those or labor without contract, okay so and there is this fairness argument and also because of the labor legislation even if you are an informal worker if you are work for a firm, right, with no but you are not registered, you can then to the firm saying that look I worked here have proof and they did not pay me the minimum wage, so basically all the firms knowing that they pay when have this informal type job at least minimum wage, so it's amazing to see that the proportion of people in the formal work, in the formal job making exactly the minimum wage is higher than in the formal sector anyway, so in Brazil I think that the growth in 2000s, which was explained by manufacturers, right, could also explain why you had a rise, a raising in formality, right, formality grew in Brazil that period and minimum wages, raises that did not unemployed people during that time or did not contribute to increasing inequality Well, I don't know, I first thing as I think is that the question is about the proportion of worker under the minimum wage in Argentina and the labor market of Argentina, I don't have right now exactly the number, but I can refer to the article the author was Mauricio Mbazquez who analyzed the the role of minimum wage and the inequality in Argentina during the I think they focused on the first period when the minimum wage became more more operative in our labor market and what they say that it was an equalizing effect because this huge increment in Argentina more than to 200 percent and it is a reference for the collective bargains also and the collective bargains during those period also increased more than 50 percent, I think from 2000 per year increase or I think more than 1000 collective bargains in Argentina in 2008, this is the number I have, but in the in the paper I mentioned by Mauricio Mbazquez and Mbazquez they with I think they tried with a counterfactual distribution wage, the effect of the minimum wage in Argentina and in the inequality and it was effect any other questions? So I have some questions for you It's for all of you the two first and the third is for you. So the first one is I think you all find that the earning structure effects matter more than composition effects So do you have any idea why is that result and the same for polarization when you find result It's mainly for earnings and not for jobs. So do you also have any idea of why is that? And the third question for you, you find that formality has an effect at the first period then the effect vanishes So do you have any explanation or any hypothesis for this? Who wants to start? So can you repeat the first one? Yeah, so the structure effect is higher, right Yeah, and I believe that has to do with the fact that many gaps have have closer have kept tighter during this period at least in Brazil So I mean many not only the RTI, which is not very important but other gaps as for example the education premium Decrease it the experience premium decrease it has ratio and gender gaps also decrease it So overall the structure effect which is basically fixing the the composition of the worker force fix it and look at looking at the difference in pay that explains most of changes in the wage structure and and your second question was Yeah Yeah, everything has to do with the way that you mean those two sub periods we see Like a growth incidence curve, which is basically proper in the beginning and more per rich in the second period So when combine those two you get that could explain that would be my answer Yeah, I think it's probably somewhat similar for For Ghana and I think part of why the composition effect wasn't that strong as because also we didn't include agriculture in In the analysis basically and I think the main Move in terms of the composition was really this move out of agriculture and then towards low skilled Informal jobs on the one hand and then this kind of more high-skill formal job sector jobs on the other hand But as we couldn't get a good measure of earnings in agriculture, which is really hard to do We basically had to to drop that segment and I think this is Partly why we may not to be seeing the the full composition effect essentially for for the case of Ghana Okay, my turn But what we find in the the composition and the the principal driver of the movement in the genie index was the earning Structure effect. We think that in Argentina would happen that it's not enough there in the increase in in employment to to affect the the distribution of the earning only unless the increment in employment changed the The the the returns of the occupation Where are increasing so because of that we think that the earning polarization was the principal driver and about the Third-second I think the the question and about the formalization process Stop it being an equalizing Factor in reducing in equal in equalizing factor in Argentina We think that because after after 2012 the macroeconomic context in Argentina became very very erratic with crisis and inflation over 12 percent per year and the even the The international context with what was favorable in the first period is stop it being in the second superior So the formalization Processes stop it and we saw in the in one of the graph I I show in the in the presentation and because of that the the formalization stop it being this this kind of factor Thank you very much. Thanks to the three of you. So if you don't have any questions Kunal, please Okay, so the question is this is the big picture question So generally you find that the routine bias ecological change make it not didn't make a big difference Explaining earnings movements and is equal movements So the question I have is that so if it's a horse race between skilled bias ecological change and Luton bicycle change It seems that skill by the current change is winning the race in these countries, right? If you could so it's just this two horse the two horses that are running of course The other thing minimum wages social factors other things are there But why would that be the case that skilled bicycle chains since you still dominate Luton bicycle change is it a good measurement of the task intensity occupations I know Simone is on great work trying to find new new measures It's to do with the nature of of automation not yet being so important in these countries Is it with structural change that was asked here earlier? What exactly is it? Why are we seeing as compared to the US that the horse race right now being won by skill bias ecological change? Sorry Okay, maybe I can give it a shot and then the others can can add I think something that we have been seeing in the global paper Is that even though I mean for all the countries we've been looking at here? We see this decline in RTI which if you look at it for the individual country case It looks like okay, it's it's declining But if you look at it from a global perspective We see that this decline has been way much flatter compared to the developed countries So the gradient is not as steep so we do see this move, but it's not yet as pronounced at least and I think this is Part of the of the story in a way Think the other aspect is this quite some change over time like if you remember the case of Ghana for example You have a decline in the education premium in both periods, right? Okay, it was a bit less pronounced in the second one But basically this change was equalizing in both periods and actually we did see a Polarizing trend coming from the remuneration of RTI So I think something to also keep in mind of course data isn't collected super frequently So we don't have maybe the most up-to-date one And I do think that this might change in the near future kind of and I think in a number of the countries We have been seeing an increasing trend of RTI matter mattering more and Probably also technological change picking up more in those countries and routinization or De-routinization picking up more in those countries So I think even though it wasn't the main factor for the full period that we have been looking at Seeing it mattering more in the later period should still give us a bit of a warning that it might still Have this kind of polarizing effect in the years to come and I think something Why we don't see it so much in the earlier years is also if you think of Shoring like some of those countries like if you look at the case study for Bangladesh or something We're actually countries that received the kind of routine type of job So you had some increase in those occupations for some time and the patterns are mainly now only only shifting kind of and I think Think that's part of the reasons Thank you No, so I think that's for Latin America and Particularly for Brazil, I mean a productivity labor productivity is pretty stagnant over the last decades So and there are many reasons for that like the region being not very exposed to to trade We are in a way protective to Small firms which cannot afford to mean to increase technology or adopt new technologies So in that sense, I mean, we don't see any big change in terms of technology that could drive a decrease in routine task Jobs, so that's why I believe that that's not a big thing for for the region as you seen in other regions All my my answer is pretty similar because Brazil and Argentina It's not similar, but in this case. I think the explanation It's it's pretty the same the the skill In in the the written decision Task that the high the higher and the skill are very Associated, so I think it's because of that. We don't see that kind of movement Totally agree. We're not the members are the same. We have five world cups.


Guys, so welcome back for Friday, the October 12th. Everything that we're doing and knowing about October crashes, we finally have it, what's going on. Just please keep in mind that this is perfectly healthy. This is great. This is, you want this. This is good opportunities for a, you know, a swing trade. You know, for a lot of us we always worried about we chased the stock, we wish we could have got it, we could have got it. Well, now here's your opportunity to get it. A lot of stocks have some good rallies. I told you about three weeks ago to trade the UVXY for an insurance policy.  But you need to buy a lot of shares. I did pretty well on it. I think I pulled out about 15 points on it. But overall, that's basically what we do. You know, you gotta have an insurance policy. So anyway, that worked out well. But yesterday with the volatility and everything, it was a great shorts. I mean, it was a trader's dream. But please don't take it in a wrong way. This is what we do when it comes to trading. We go out there and we trade these markets, you know, with the volatility that we're having and that's how you make money. So listen, there was a lot of big movers out yesterday and I could just go down the list. But I think realistically the UVXY was probably the best day trade and swing trade out there. You know, I'm not a fan of ETFs but when it comes down to ETFs that's when you trade them days like this. So, you know, with the Fed, what they're doing, they're trying to slow down inflation. Listen, you know what? I heard a great line on TV the other day and they said, you know what? Everyone's been having free lunches, all right? Well, and everyone's getting fat, all right? So now what they're doing, they're starting to charge for the food and hopefully that will make people a little bit more responsible. So in other words, they're giving free money out with the interest rates at all time low. And you know what? Eventually, let me just tell you the theory behind this. Having a higher interest rate is not a bad thing because if we'd ever run into another bad situation, you could always bring it down. Right now, you can't go any lower when it's at zero. So a lot of people are spoiled, they borrow money for free and they're doing this, great. But you know, they gotta slow it down. The growth is doing great, the economy's doing great but they wanna slow it down, they wanna kinda ease into it a little bit.  So listen, eventually they can't go out there and they gotta pay that money back. So it's good the economy came back, now it's time, you gotta start paying for, just like anything that we're doing, right?  Now all of a sudden you feel bad and now you gotta pay interest, like we're not gonna pay. You gave me free interest on the credit card. Now you're gonna charge me? Well, listen, we built your business, you're doing good. You know what? If things get rough, we're lower again. But if things get rough, they can't lower it anymore, you know? They can't go negative, they gotta go positive. It's been a great situation for the last 10 years. It has, and you know what's great about it guys? This is what you learn about economics.  When you're in the thick of things, what do you do every day? I've been through three crashes and I only got better and better at it and believe it or not, I made most of my money on these crashes. And that's the way you have to look at it. Anyway, that's the memo for today. That is how you deal with today's economy. Now let's talk about what's moving because there were a couple of stocks. I just wanna bring up one stock that was my ultimate favorite, which is Square. Now Square, I just wanna bring this up. You guys know we traded Square a long time ago. We need a lot of money on Square. And unfortunately, I sold it too cheap. I should have held it. And when I saw it hit 100, I was like throwing up. I mean, I had it at like 25. I sold it at 46 and it went to 100. But listen, look what ended up happening. It got destroyed, it dropped down to 65, you know? And now where it is, it's back to 75. So the way you trade these markets, if you love a company and you wish you could have bought it and you get a situation like this, this is how you trade it. If you love Square and whatever happened to it, I'm just using Square as an example. Had a great, great run-up and it backed off that much. Almost, that's literally almost like 50%. You know, and this is a real company, all right? You know, this is how you get your buying opportunities, all right? So these are great buying opportunities. So don't get it. Great call Steve said on the Square. Listen, Steve, you're more than welcome and you know this. So many of them out there for us, all right? Now let's talk about what is moving this morning. First of all, the IGC, Early Bird gets a worm. If you're here at eight o'clock, you all should have gotten in around 7.80 when I called it out. Right now you're doing pretty well on that one. Once again, keep an eye on, be careful with the stock when you're watching, you know how volatile it can get. But she was a great, great pre-market. A lot of you guys should have made money in pre-market trading IGC. That one's doing pretty well. ICXS is another one that I found. The reason why I'm throwing this on my watch list, it doesn't look like the most pretty stock that's moving but a lot of you remember this China, Inet nationwide, we traded in the past. It got really destroyed. You know, you can see the stock the high was 46. I don't know, I feel like it's coming back a little bit. I don't know. I love stocks that get destroyed and getting that good buying opportunity, you know, like the INO that we saw. IOVA, another one I found this morning. Another stock that's pushing pretty nicely. Stock got really beat up 18 down to nine. Not really being affected too much on the little bit of that mini crash that we had. But she's gapping up, look at that. She's moving up pretty nicely. Only thing that you gotta be careful of spread is pretty big right now. IMDZ, another one I found this morning. Now this stock, another one, got really beat up. Nice, you know what? This is a nice level one stock, but you know what, down 40% got destroyed. Let's see if we get a little bit of a bottom fish. Design Corp. I don't know if this is a pharmaceutical stock, but we know pharmaceuticals don't come back, but we are getting a little bit of an uptrend right now. Square is gonna go on my watch list, but once again, you gotta be a level four trader. And then the UVXY, man. We cleaned up on that one. We did really, really well on it. Just remember, this is probably in the five category. If you're my 1,000 to 2,500 dollar day trader a day, then if you're my half a million, million dollar trader in this room, the stock, we killed it. We killed it. And let me tell you, this is how we basically do it. That's the, your race is up almost $3. Yeah, you know what? I sold race, and let me tell you this one day. I sold race and I got out when it had this big dip. I got out right around a buck 34, because it had a little retrace right here. I got out when it hit that resistance levels back here. And then you could see it went right back up. And I was getting a little upset. I'm like, oh my God, the thing came back. It went up. And I like race, I like Ferrari for the longterm, but you know what? Once again, great opportunity. You know, stock took a huge hit from 142 down to 115. Here you have a, maybe it's a big buyer up too. Yeah, and I might consider buying it right now because I do love the stock longterm. But being up almost $3, Wendy, and anything else, these are buying opportunities.  Remember, cash is king. All right guys, anything I'm missing, I did not call out. Nio's a plus 40, and Benito's a plus 80 on square. All right, let's give those guys a round of applause in pre-market. That's what I'm talking about. Beautiful. Congrats, that's what it's all about. We make a lot of money in our pre-market. I'll tell you this, you don't know how many people are that I speak to. I did so many events and they says, listen, I just wanna learn pre-market, I wanna learn level three. I'm like, well, it's a lot more than that, but it's amazing how many, so many people starting to realize that that's where the money is. All right guys, listen, good luck today. I will not be here this afternoon.  We got a, there's this big, big event in New York City. I wanna share it with you.  I was invited to this wine and food festival. All the top chefs in the world are there. There's probably gonna be like 10,000 people in New York City, 20,000 people in New York City in this big pier. No, about 10,000.  Remember, happy wife, happy life. That's right Grant, all right? But you know the staff will be here with you guys. Josh will take care of you. John's here, everyone's here. Great, Danielle, everybody's here. So don't forget, next week is the onsite. So look forward to seeing you guys all there for the soiree on Wednesday. Good luck everyone, happy trading. And just like what Kent said, look, listen and learn, and you will learn. Good luck everyone.


Felly, gallwch i'n gwybod i'r TV i'r ffost i'r 12-11 ym Mhwythagor. Felly mae'r Llyfrgell yn llyfrfyrdd ar amfio, rydw i'n gweithio. A gael, rydw i'n gweithio i Jordan Pickford, wrth gwrs, rydw i'n gweithio i Jordan Pickford, Why didn't you redeem every or any mistake that he's ever made by having a big performance in a Masyside Dabby? You know, we came back in the week against Manchester City. I think he does better for the third goal. But obviously while Olson's been in gold, there's been goals that he should have done better for. Hajgwch y wath am fy gwaethaf. Rhaid i'n geau gwbl iddyn nhw i'n gwestiynau amddangos a rhaid i fynd i'w ffiyth i fynd yn gweinio. Fe yw'r ffordd gweithio'n gwneud yma a'r gwaith nifer o'r mae'r cyflod a ddyliadol i'n gwneud i ffiyth flynyddoedd. Nid efo'r eu rhaid i'u bêl yn mynd i ddraffu amddangos arfod yn y casg. I don't know, I just feel like it's important for them to play in this game and put all those wrongs that have been cast against them, right? It's not been exactly a happy hunting ground in the past for a manfield, so yeah I'm going to go for Jordan Pickford in goal. Right back I'm going to go for Mason Holgate because I think we have to be solid and I think we have to take the attitude we have in other away games whereas we're as solid as we can be at the back, so I'm going to start with Mason Holgate. Left back Luca Dean obviously, top player and you know go and prove that you're the best left back on the pitch once and for all. The centre backs Michael Keane and Ben Goffrey will obviously start at centre back, I mean it's a combination of those three isn't it? Mason Holgate could start at centre back and Ben Goffrey could start at right back but he might start Ben Goffrey at right back for the pace that he has and the physicality up against Marnie, so he could do that as well and I honestly have no issue you know if that was the if that if he swapped them over so maybe maybe he'll start with that and as I said it's those those two players could play those two positions easily, so let's see what happens. In midfield Tom Davis sitting in front of the back four, a lot of talk about Tom in the last 24 hours, a lot of newspaper stories and put a brilliant video out about him, he's in a really good I think consistent thing in the form and let's hope he can continue that in the main side derby, not do anything stupid, play the game and not the occasion as what they say and it'd be lovely for Tom to have a big main side derby. In there with him Alan for his first start since December, I think Alan with Tom Davis sitting in there can go hunting the ball, pressing the ball like he was doing before he got injured and I think that would be huge for the team especially going forward defensively yes but going forward winning the ball high and then recycling it to our attacking players, I think that would be huge so Alan in there and the Corey in there with them as well being a little bit more offensive trying to join in, trying to get behind the centre forward but also getting up and down on the pitch I think that would be huge as well so that's my three in midfield. On the right I'm going for Hamas Rodríguez, I think this is a game that he could open up and with that three in midfield and you know the right back behind him wouldn't be expected to do well I mean he's not really expected to do any defensive work anyway but can get away with not doing any defensive work and would have a little bit bit more pace around them to use so I would start with Hamas Rodríguez. On the other side on the left with Charleston don't okay at centre forward but back on the left and hopefully taking that confidence of scoring the goals in the last few games with them and being another threat and hopefully like Hamas can play higher because there's three plays in midfield who aren't playmakers, who are who are near to do the hard work of winning the ball back and recycling it and then up front Dominic Arvindlumin has to have a time for me. I think he'll really condominate their centre backs all of their defenders really and we need a big game from Dominic Arvindlumin hopefully he's fit and ready to go for this one so that's my 11. Let me know your thoughts if you agree on it or not. As I said I'm very flexible on Ben Goffrey and Mason Hallgate I think the manager might decide to put Ben Goffrey right back just to try and to stop Sadio Mani and the threat of Andy Robinson as well so yeah he might do that and we'll have to wait and see but that's definitely my 11 anyway that's definitely my 11 so let me know your thoughts in the comments if you agree do you disagree who would you start who would you leave out let me know your thoughts in the comments make sure to give this video a like make sure to check out our match preview as well our match preview and our opposition match preview for this game as well as a subscriber if you haven't already you want to get more great videos exclusive daily videos live videos join us on Patreon the link is in the description and it's on the screen as well see you later