Thanks, Dan, and the other speakers. I'd like to ask the four speakers from this morning maybe to come up to answer and field some questions. We have about 10 or 15 minutes or so for questions from the audience. And I encourage you to use the microphones. So don't be shy. But I will start, I guess, particularly since I know that we probably don't have Francis here for the entire two days. I would like to just ask him from the perspective of someone who has led a very large and complex multinational project, the Human Genome Project, as you think about the potential for this group to do maybe something in the genomics implementation space at scale. What types of lessons learned? Or I wouldn't hesitate to call it advice. But what sort of insights from that project would you want us to be thinking about as we think about what we might do or might not do coming out of this meeting? I think it is an appropriate question. And we have some experiences from the genome sequencing effort, from HAPMAP, from now the International Cancer Genomics effort, from the International Microbiome Project to sort of see how those kinds of models have been developed. There are other things going on with rare diseases. So certainly it would be appropriate, not just in my quick response here, but in a more thorough way to look and see how those were structured and what seemed to have been successful efforts and which things maybe we could learn from and not make the same mistakes. I think the most critical thing is to create a space where talented, motivated, energetic, visionary people will want to come and take part. And that was critical for every one of the successful international efforts that I've mentioned. You want this to be a place where somebody really would not want to miss out on taking part in such an effort, because they know that the atmosphere, that the quality of the team, that the consequences of what goes on are going to be something that you just don't want to miss taking part in. That being said, it will be crucial to have leadership of the effort that is truly international, that recognizes the importance of having the contributions of all the participants really clearly laid out and appropriately credited so that people don't feel as if they're cogs in some machine. And particularly for this effort, it's going to take maybe more in the way of sophistication in managing all of the differences that exist in medical care systems across the world. That was not such a serious issue, although it occasionally came up in sequencing the human genome or even in HAPMAP. But here, it's going to be a big issue, just in terms of what kinds of access one has to specimens, to issues about a policy, and so on. I would urge strongly that the ethic that the group adopts, which has served so well for genomics, is this idea of immediate open access to the information that's derived, because that becomes so empowering. It is a little threatening at first for people who have not lived in that kind of space, because it has not been the tradition of medical research in many areas previously to be so forthcoming and revealing. But it turns everything into a much more interesting and productive enterprise to take that step. Recognizing that immediate release of the data does not mean that the producers of the data should have their contribution ignored or neglected or downgraded, but that basically, by making the data available, you're actually having the producers more important, not less so, and that'll be an important issue to consider. I could go on a bit, but those are some of the main principles to think about. That's those are terrific responses. Eric, did you look like you had something to add to that? Well, I mean, I think the only thing I would, I was going to immediately add, was just vehicles for communication. And I think maybe even more important in this regard, because, I mean, almost Terry started to allude to it. I mean, I just think the complexities of the heterogeneity of healthcare delivery. I mean, you know, Genome Project was very focused, goal laser focused in some ways. I think the concept of genomic medicine and how that gets implemented in different countries and different cultures and different ecosystems, it makes it even more important that whatever we do collectively, that there's just incredibly good communication that we're going to benefit from collaborative efforts. Excellent point. Hi, I'm Alex Sheldiner. University of Maryland. So there's I guess another kind of personalized medicine paradox related to the one that Dan mentioned that I thought maybe the panel could address. And that's one of a policy paradox. The fact that our U.S. healthcare system we're told that we need to be moving towards population health, healthcare systems taking on risk for populations and the maintenance of their health. And I'm just wondering how you all think about layering personalized medicine on this policy paradox. You know, Alan, I don't really have an answer to that except that so there's this, I'll be a politician and not answer your question, but answer the question that I think you asked or the question that the answer that I want to give. And that is there is this tension, as you know, between evidence-based medicine and personalized medicine. People sort of argue that they're sort of to, you know, like the North and South of magnetic poles they'll never meet because if you have evidence-based medicine you have evidence across the population and if you're interested in the health of the population then you ought to deploy certain kinds of medications widely across a population, for example. And personalized medicine has this individual flavor to it. I don't think that those are actually as diametrically opposed to as they appear on first blush and the reason I don't think they're opposed is because if we have evidence that personalizing care results in better outcomes then we ought to personalize care. And the challenge I think to us in Emerge and to everybody in this room is to develop that evidence base and it's really early, early days, number one and number two to figure out which variants really are important for implementation in a clinical environment and not. And I think that's where the gap is as I see it but I think that those are not difficult views to reconcile except when it comes down to actually doing it you have to have the evidence and that's one of the things that we ought to focus on. Maybe I could just add in that, you know, I agree with everything Dan has said and we are sort of trying to start little smaller and then getting bigger and so populations are big and clinical care is a little bit smaller but we didn't have time and I'm sorry that we don't to have Howard McLeod talk a little bit about his PG&E program which really is looking as Dan sort of alluded to across populations at very big differences in drug metabolizing variants. Hope I'm getting this right, Howard. And making recommendations on a nationwide basis to say, you know, the prevalence of the polymorphisms that really make it inappropriate for your population to be using. Isoniazid, for example, is so high in this population that it probably shouldn't be a first line drug. So those kinds of implementations probably are possible along the road. I think we're not quite there yet for a large variety of them. Dr. Alfala. So thank you very much. So I, as I understand from the genomic medicine one to five, the various American agencies founded hard to work with each other, at least that's my understanding. What is your vision for this an international consortium? What are we going to get out of this? I mean, of course there is a basic question which is a basic answer that we all gonna learn from that but what are our targets really? Do you have anything set in mind for all of us to work because it's gonna be a gigantic job? Right, so I might ask Jeff to comment. And he did review sort of what the outcomes might be. My personal dream would be in, sorry? Would be an evidence generation project on a large scale because we can actually get at the wide diversity of genetic variation and if we can use some of the electronic phenotyping tools that were described here, it can't be that difficult to try to get some phenotypes out of the medical records that we're all collecting worldwide. So that to me would be a dream but I don't know Jeff. I would just say that we would in want to be very proscriptive going into this meeting about what the output would be, thinking that our own provincial view of what the field looks like should not represent yours or any of the diversity of people in the audience. So I think this is one of our challenges for the next two days is to keep coming back to what are the opportunities? And think about things that would have near term wins that could really be a demonstration that we can act as a global community to do something impactful in this field and then go beyond that. I'm not saying anything very detailed purposely. I mean the kind of project that Terry alluded to an evidence generation project would certainly be something that I think we would all rally around though. Thanks for the question. We have time probably for two more questions. I think, I can't tell how many people are in line but we do need to also respect some of the agenda so let's go with Heidi and then Mark. So this is a question probably for Francis. As Dan mentioned and I think many of us believe the implementation of genomics into medicine is going to critically depend on electronic health care systems that we all employ throughout our hospitals. And being involved in the partners healthcare implementation of EPIC at the figure of $1.5 billion and being on the genomic medicine committee for that, we are struggling to even get family history implemented into an EHR environment let alone all of the things that all of us in this room want to do. And my question is what if any role does NIH potentially play in the EHR environment and how we interplay between private healthcare systems and other healthcare systems and the NIH that has such momentum in this space? So it's a great question and in the United States in terms of the standards that have to be adopted by electronic health records, much of this is overseen by the Office of the National Coordinator for Health IT. And we have close and regular interactions with ONC about exactly how in their various phases of implementing those standards they could be put in place in a way that is friendly to research. We have to be realistic about it of course because the main point of the electronic health record is to help care be delivered. And so if we layer too many things on top of that that really don't have much use in the management of patient care but are purely research oriented there will be loud objections. We've already experienced a little bit of that. But we are being given the opportunity by ONC to put forward realistic standards that ought to be included as this whole process evolves. And of course it is an evolving process. What you see now, thank God, is not what you're going to have in a few years if we continue down this road. So it is a great opportunity if this group, for instance, wanted to suggest things that electronic health records across the world really need to have in place in order to deliver good genomic medicine. I'd love to hear about that. Thanks Francis. Mark, and then short questions please. Yeah, I just wanted to come back to the first question about population health. I think it's important to recognize that we do this already. I mean, if we do blood transfusions we personalize blood transfusions based on a variety of blood types and we treat that in a population manner but we use that individual data. And I think a concept that needs to be thought about is one that Clay Christensen has put forward called precision medicine that right now we're in an empiric period of medicine where we say based on population you're likely to respond to this drug, we're going to try it and then we'll see if it works or if it doesn't work or if it kills you. But he's envisioning a time where we will be able to precisely define diseases, understand what the causes are and then target those causes with drugs that are specifically designed or work best in that and that you can still use population approaches but be very precise about how it's done and the principles that underlie that are mass customization which is why we can all get the laptop exactly that we want but we use mass production techniques to get high reliability and that's the transformative re-engineering of health care delivery that will allow us to do that. So I don't see this as a paradox at all but it still does come back to the evidence generation we have to generate the evidence to understand how to realize precision medicine. Thanks Mark. Just briefly this is for Terry, I was very interested in your name and Paul Lasko, Canadian Institute of Health Research. I was very intrigued with what you had to say about education of healthcare providers. This is a hugely important issue and I wonder if your group has any plans to take that program globally and engage international agencies. Well, we would love to do that. We'll need some partners in order to be able to and since we know you're right next door, that's good to know but yes, absolutely and we're trying to make as much available widely as possible and we should talk more about how to expand that. Great, and just let me add a comment based on the previous question by Dr. Alfalo about what we could do coming out of this meeting. We laid out the working groups activities as a menu of potential ways to expand them to an international community. Thank you. I'm Sinha from India. I was thinking about the whole vaccinology area. My question here is that impact of genomic medicine in future in the immunization program, whether it could have some impact and second point actually, which I would like to flag here that in India we have couple of new institutions where we have longstanding Indo-U.S. relationship. So we'll be interested, particularly in some educational and training programs. Thank you. Thank you. In terms of immunization, I'm aware that there is some work that the CDC has done. They initially started looking at smallpox, I believe and then at some of the flu vaccine reactions because there are some really devastating reactions to those vaccines. So some work is beginning, but it's discovery work and it needs to be done and I don't think there's enough of it personally. Yeah, there's this intriguing recent observation about narcolepsy and being a side effect of immunization for influenza in Scandinavia with a particular batch of the vaccine. And that's just a snapshot of maybe the way in which genomics and vaccination may find some opportunities to work together. Last question, Dr. Hubbard. Hi, Tim Hubbard from Genomics England. This question of coordination bodies, a lot of the potential of coordinating across the globe is data exchange. Now there's this other entity, the Global Alliance, which has recently been set up. It's obviously not completely the same thing, but if you've had something new, there'd be a lot of overlap between that. Have you considered how to work with that? So I'm glad you brought it up, Tim. So I think not everybody is aware because it's a new arrival on the scene, but it certainly should be on the table for this meeting. The Global Alliance for Genomic Health GA4GH, as it has now been rechristened, is an effort to try to establish standards by which large-scale genomic data sets related to human medicine can find their way into a shared data format, probably in the cloud, to allow investigators to gain access to such data sets and to make inferences and provide insights that might otherwise take a long time by trying to be sure that formatting is thought about, that privacy and access is thought about. This group now has a series of working groups that are pretty rolled up their sleeves trying to come up with standards. There'll be a meeting London on March 4th to see where we have gotten to. It is an international effort. Certainly, while you might think of this as sort of on the mechanical side, if we don't get this part right in terms of how data finds its way into an accessible place, then a lot of the rest of our dreams, as far as the research opportunities and their clinical implications, will be impeded. So I think many of us have been quite excited to see this arrive. Many institutions, more than 100, have signed on. Probably many of you in this room have institutions that have joined this GA4GH, but certainly something that needs to be watched closely. The next year is gonna be critical. And we were well aware of the relevance of the Global Alliance and this meeting. And in fact, the organizers meeting, we extended an invitation, just didn't work out scheduling-wise for some of the key people. But anything coming out of this gathering should clearly somehow make sure there's good connections with the Global Alliance. All right, well, I wanna really thank our speakers and our panel for laying the groundwork for today's and tomorrow's meeting. We're gonna take a short break, probably about 23 minutes or so. We'll try to be back here at five after 10 to keep on our schedule. See you in a few minutes.


Hey everyone, welcome to this week's video update exclusively for pro members today's Friday, September 25th Hope everybody had a great week of trading Taking a look at the S&P 500 to start Obviously a nice big update today S&P's up 50 The Dow is up 343 Nasdaq up 250 Russell up 21 so a nice little bounce today I don't think we're done with the downside. We had this one big push A little bit of a bounce another push. I think we have at least one more flush. I don't really think that I Don't think the market's crashing. I don't I don't know that we'll get back down here to these lows But sure, I mean certainly could I just think just as a kind of a healthy pullback will have one more flush lower And then we'll see from there But nice little bounce today having some good two-sided action making for some good trading overall In our portfolio some good day trading and with that Let's actually start there and talk about our day trading today was actually a little bit of a a Red day a bad day ending the week if you want to check out today's video recap and more detail about the trades We posted our day trading recap in the Facebook group. So you can just go there to check it out But just to recap Mighty 90 minus 1500 for the week So not a great week in the mighty 90 just did a couple pairs trades minus 134 and pairs trades Runners up 2400 for the week. So total P&L for the week with the day trades 773 Not as great as the last few weeks, but still positive. So we're gonna keep that dream alive and keep it running We will be coming out with our runner strategy class here in the next few weeks So look for that just kind of finalizing details and then we'll let you know exactly when when that's happening So look forward to that Overall for the last four weeks since we've been breaking down our trades into the different strategies up almost $15,000. So still doing very well Had a big mistake in Nicola today that that really brought this down about 1200 bucks 1100 bucks So you can learn more about that in the day trading recap But let's jump over to the alerts and jump into our core portfolio here Starting with on Monday did a closing adjusting trade in gold So we had a remaining call vertical side on of our iron condor got down to just three days to expiration It came back in nicely booked over 40% of max profit on that iron condor overall Had another trade in gold here coming up. So I'll go to the platform when I get to that Rolling adjusting trade at ES. So this is a long put vertical and so there's the closing bell The long put vertical we've been rolling as this market's been going lower to keep that short delta in our portfolio We've been just rolling down our short strategies We're over 50% of max profit on this piece So we just rolled those strikes down and rolled it out So we're at 39 days to expiration and rolled it out to 60 in this case. So let's take a look at ES ES So we've still got the two different verticals on an ES So this is the one that we just rolled it's pretty close to where we put it on here or to where we rolled it The other one that we've got is in this cycle here and we're up about About 280 about 200 bucks since we did that last roll So got some more room to roam to the downside if we do get that additional flush that I was talking about Next trade in apple rolling adjusting trade in apple. So same thing a long put vertical Just rolling that from 32 days to 60 again We're over 50% of max profit on that piece. So we just continue to roll that down Keep that short delta in our portfolio. If we look at apple apple's up almost 4% today So after that roll prices moved up on us out of range But so we still need some downside action to get back into range there Next trade qqq. So this was a bunker that we had in November So we're getting down to that 60 days to expiration in November And so we went ahead and just closed this one out took a small loser in that one never really got the downside that in In that period that we needed to to get out of a with a profit on that one. So we just closed it out XL K long put vertical. So similar situation just rolling these down over 50% of max profit So just rolling it down rolls from October to November. So let's take a look at XL K We've got a couple pieces in XL K. Here's the long put vertical. You can see price moved up today So just at a range. We've also got a long put We're up about well with today's up move only up about 180 bucks we're gonna hold this for that for that Next flush that we're looking for trying to get out of this with at least a 50 some 50 to 100% profit We're in capital using this about 1245. So if we can get out for seven eight thousand bucks That's what we're looking for out of this trade And then we've also got a bunker That's up a little bit of money here. So again holding this if we get that one more flushed down We'll we'll book that one as well Next trade SPX. So we did a weekly double calendar in SPX So this is one that we put on earlier this week, which is three days to expiration Took this off today and booked a winner of $300 on that we ended up putting on another SPX weekly double calendar today that I'll get to here in just a minute We also put on a long call in XBI now We don't do a lot of long calls in ETFs or kind of for this type of duration But let's take a look at why let's go to the charts and take a look at XBI The reason we did this I looked at doing a vertical But I just didn't like the risk reward that we got With the with the rest of the market, you know kind of flushing XBI has been pretty strong And so you can see I made this big push higher started to pull back And so we wanted to just kind of balance out our portfolio It's not that we were leaning too short But I just thought you know if anything XBI is gonna be continued have continued strength Even if the market does continue to get weak and it did flush down a little bit against us But now it's starting to bounce back. So I'm looking for a continuation Higher in XBI. So if we look at where that trade is now, it's pretty close to where we put it on We're down about 50 bucks. I just looking for some upside upside swing in XBI Next trade GC so this is opening adjusting trade where we added another iron condor in gold This one with 34 days to expiration. So let's take a look at our gold positions. We've got two different pieces on This is this is the one that we had on be already had on and you can see prices hanging out right here at the break Even it actually came through and breached it. I mentioned this in the commentary in the community But if we look at just the the untested side the call side We still have a decent amount of premium left in those so I I have not closed that out yet If price continues lower and we get some theta decay I will close that out and we'll just see if we can get a bounce back on the put vertical The other one that we just that I just mentioned from the alert is right here So it's dead centered so we just layered on another iron condor widen out our break evens collect another credit And try to continue to manage our gold trade Next piece opening adjusting trade in SPY. So we added an iron condor and then we closed one out Closed one out No, we did not close it out. I'm sorry. Yeah, so we added this iron condor I was going to close the other one out and then we got a quick down draft in SPY in the market So I did not now and so then I forgot I decided to wait until next week So here's the one that we just put on this one's out in November. We still have our October one on We are close to actually were a little over 40% of max profit and then the market just flushed on us So we never had a chance I looked at it today and and we're back there because this up moved today But I just wanted to hold it over the weekend see if we can squeeze a little bit more out of this But we'll look to close this early on Monday and hopefully book at this point over 50% of max profit on this one on this piece Next straight SPX. So here's where we opened an iron duck in SPX big down move in the market We went ahead and jumped in with an iron duck in SPX. So let's take a look at that. We've got two different iron ducks in SPX That's our weekly double calendar that will the alert will come up here in a second So we might as well just talk about it now. So prices moved up today after we put this on still well within range and We'll look to take that off next week on Thursday or Friday If we take a look at the iron duck situation, let's click off these So here's one of the iron ducks you see prices right here approaching the duck head So if we can get into the duck head nice week next week possibility of hitting a max profit of 605 on that one and Then the other one that we have here is right here Make sure I'm clicking on the right ones Right there So this is the newest one we put on so after today's move. It's kind of run up the beak We're up about 90 bucks on it But got plenty of time and and a possibility if we get a big down flush still to get back down to the duck head So that's the plan on our SPX ducks There's that XPS X SPS duck that we let retire expire excuse me not retire actually booked a full 635 max profit Full duck head on this one. So that was a nice trade. It'd been a while since we got a duck head. So that was nice DIA rolling adjusting so this is a another one of our Short vertical. So this is a short call vertical. We were over 50 of max profit in this So just rolling out to the next cycle extending duration Keeping that short delta in our portfolio. So let's look at DIA. We shedded one of these Last week. So we've just got the one on If we if we open next week If the market opens up I may add another one back in just to add some more short delta to our portfolio But for now we just have this one it's hanging out right near our breakeven Just looking for some downside to benefit that piece IWM closing trade. So we had a another November bunker that was you know a little past that 60 days to expiration. So we needed to close it Got a nice nice little down move At that point on yesterday. And so we ended up closing it out for a small profit SPX weekly double calendar. So here's the one I mentioned earlier booked a few hundred dollars on this one close that out Here's the SPX weekly double calendar that I just showed you And then IWM rolling adjusting trade so another long put vertical that were over 50 of max profit on Just rolled that from October to November rolled our strikes down. And so let's take a look at IWM So this is uh, this is yeah, this is it right here. So I've rolled it. It's pretty close to where we rolled it to We've got one other one in this weekly cycle You can see we're not quite at 50 of max profit, but if we get another flush down next week We will roll that one as well Or we might you know, if we do get another big flush down kind of that third flush I've been talking about We may start to actually lighten up on our short delta But we'll see where we're at with everything at that point. We've also got a bunker in december That's up a little bit of money. So looking for some downside action to benefit that one as well So those are all the alerts. Let's take a look at some of our other positions I mentioned es I mentioned gold natty gas down three percent today. We're up about 466 Price was way down here. It really rallied hard towards the end of the week here On this adjusted short strangle, but looking for some more downside And then we've got about you know, we've got 32 days. So we've got plenty of time on this Hopefully we get a little bit of downside action next week and then You know in the next or in the next couple weeks and then we can look to to roll that and lock in that credit zb This is this is one where we're getting close to a point where we want to roll out We're not down to 21 days to expiration. We're at 28, but next week. We'll be rolling this for sure Rolling that to december with which currently has 56 days Hopefully, you know price maybe moves up a little bit. That would be the best and then if it's dead centered here We'll we'll go ahead and roll that I mentioned apple de still holding this for that short delta exposure just to add a range looking for some downside to benefit that smh So this is one we're going to roll next week as well So price was before this big rally today price was down here And I was wanting some more theta decay wanting a potential little up move before I did anything So we'll roll this one on monday. We're at 21 days today, but I just wanted to give it over the weekend Potentially get a little bit more theta decay before we roll that out to november mentioned spy xbi Oh, well, I mentioned the I mentioned the call in xbi. I didn't talk about the Short strangle which has been adjusted into a straddle. This is another one that's got 21 days to expiration So again, just giving it over the weekend and then we'll roll that out early next week to know to the november cycle to keep that going Uh, and then xlk We've got a bunker in xlk We've got a Short or excuse me a long put vertical and then we've also got a long put We're up about like I said a couple hundred bucks on that one So just looking for a little bit more of a down flush Before we do anything there. So those are all our positions. Those are all the alerts That's our recap. Everybody. Have a fantastic weekend We'll be back trading live for the day trading in the morning 8 30 to 10 a.m. Central if you haven't joined us make sure you check that out We're having a good time booking some profits and look forward to seeing you there. Everybody. Have a great weekend. Talk to you next week


It was a very enriching experience for me personally. So many innovations we got to see in one day through the various entries. So good to see the human spirit that kept the marketing flag flying even during the pandemic and coming out with various new takes on communications to the consumer. It was also very good to interact with my peers and industry stalwarts as part of the jury which hasn't been going on in the last few months or almost a year. So I remit thanks for giving this opportunity. Thank you.


This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread? That's right here on the fan to a podcast network in number fire calm where today We are taking a look at the football outsiders projections for 2020 talking with Aaron shots the creator of DVO a the editor-in-chief of football outsiders and So much more to get you set for 2020 NFL. My name is Jim Saunas I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joint here as always by Ed Fang You can find his work over at the power ink calm Ed We are a couple of weeks now into this weird overlap of MLB NBA NHL whatever else you may have it It's been a fun ride so far. How you doing? I'm doing pretty good. It's nice So first of all my kids are back at school So I get you know, I have a little bit more time You know kind of during the day sit down have some lunch like around one and hey, boom There's an NBA playoff game That's starting one of the first in the day and it's kind of what you know There's like these random little things that the pandemic makes that are actually kind of nice like getting a playoff game at you Know one o'clock in the afternoon. Yeah, so that's been pretty good And then the Champions League has gotten moved back to so That's been going on You know had some of the I guess quarter finals last week Had a chance to watch Bayern Munich just destroy Barcelona. It was a little embarrassing for for the Spaniards and then Yeah, I had to give I was giving a kid a hard time I had a Barcelona shirt on and I don't think he had any idea why I was doing him a hard time about his Barcelona jersey But it was kind of like But that that's been a lot of fun as well It's been a weird like this whole situation like my Twitter timeline is a mess because like I'm probably watching baseball because you know DFS stuff betting stuff. Someone else is watching They're watching Basketball someone's watching hockey and like everyone's tweeting about and someone's watching the bar so the Barcelona game And like I can't keep up with people what people are talking about on Twitter And I haven't had a feeling in a long time, but it's so nice to have activity on my Twitter feed again Like this is this is a delight. I love it. Right.  Not all the Champions League game is going on today Right or people complain about something else, you know And it's it's fun just to have things to try to catch up with once again So it's been fun to have activity with sports once again And hopefully get to have that for a very long time as mentioned We're gonna have Aaron shots on today if you don't know Aaron make sure you check him out on Twitter But you should know Aaron by now, but check him out on Twitter at fo underscore a shots Again, he is the editor-in-chief of football outsiders. He is the creator of DVO a so kind of this mythic creature I would say within the sports analyst community for the work. He's done there We're gonna talk to him about the football outsiders almanac year 16 of publishing that we're talking about there 2020 DVO a projections and his outlook for subcommittee NFL season If we see if we can find some betting edges based on what football outsiders numbers say before we do that though Quick reminder to subscribe to cover in the spread wherever you get your podcast We've had a lot of good stuff recently had Orlando Scandrick the former cornerback for the Dallas Cowboys on two weeks ago He talked about the impact of a lack of preseason what that does whether advantageous offense versus defense Orlando talked about that two weeks ago last week Drew Dinsick whalecapper was on to break down Also, not just the NFL but also the NBA bubble and you know, it's been an interesting couple of days with the the bucks Include the the bucks in the and the lake because I must have the Cavaliers. I think a LeBron, but adjustment apparently More than a year later. I'm still getting used to it But good thoughts from Drew there So make sure you check out both those by checking for covering the spread wherever you get your podcast And if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well before we get to Aaron Gotta go back to last week talk some NASCAR in covering the future recapping that then we'll dive into our discussion with Aaron covering the past Last week here on covering the future I was talking about the NASCAR race down at the Daytona road course and how I wanted to bet Martin Truex Despite the fact that it was kind of this weird race. He was six to one And I wanted him to win in Daytona I thought it was a good number despite the fact that it was short in a high variance race and Truex was Crazy fast early on he passed a Denny Hamlin for the lead and then led most of the opening stage He decided to pit to get track position going into the second stage and as someone who bets Truex I like that because I don't care about stage points. They don't benefit me So I was psyched about that he took the lead back during the second stage and Did the same thing during the second stage you pitted from the lead in order to give himself better track position for the final stage But while he was pitting he was penalized for speeding on pit road and because of the timing of this What usually would have been a pass through penalty was instead something that forced him to restart at the end of the longest line So instead of you know, like a 20 second penalty, which given the way things were running at that time Would have been about four or five spots. It was instead about 20 positions And that was tough But because his car was so good. He was able to battle his way back up there We started fifth on a late caution and gave it a run Worked his way back up to third but couldn't quite come through he and chase Elliott clearly the fastest cars in the race They both had the the one and two cars in fastest laps total run. So I think the process was good didn't work as he finished third another race where pit lane bit me But couldn't quite get over the top, but I am okay with the process They're an ed if you're wondering ryan blaney finished 31st. So I'm glad I was not on there this past weekend So we picked a good spot to jump off of ryan blaney. Sounds good Before we take a look at erin shots and discuss his football outsiders projections for this year The nba playoffs are upon us and fan duel has you covered Compete in the mountain dew nba free play now through september 4th For your chance to win your seat in a virtual event with nba legends gary patin and ray allen With each entry you'll be entered into the king of the mountain three-point bonus for your chance to win a share of $15,000 brought to you by mountain dew official sponsor of the nba For more details as a fan duel.com or download the fan duel app today Eligibility restrictions apply. Let's bring on erin shots now find him on twitter at f o underscore a Shots he again is editor-in-chief of football outsiders the creator of vvoa We're talking about the football outsiders almanac for 2020 if you want a link to the almanac It is in the notes for this podcast over on number fire.com directly into that you can find that there Let's talk some nfl though with erin shots Covering the present Let's bring erin shots into covering the spread to talk some 2020 nfl erin. I appreciate you coming on for today How are you doing? I'm doing about the same as everyone else That's that's my answer during covid 19 because saying oh i'm doing great is a little It's a little wrong there, but you know i'm not doing any worse than anybody else is right now If you were doing great, we'd have some bigger questions to ask you at that point because it's like how much do you like your house? Right exactly It's a very deep question. I think that there are more questions that come from i'm great than i'm terrible So I I appreciate the i'm as good as everyone else. I think that's a a good way to handle this And I think it's been weird for me here and because like we're talking football with you But like it doesn't feel like football season yet I know we've had some like training camp tweets and stuff like that But do you feel like disoriented with no preseason going on? Does it feel strange right now? Yeah, it feels it feels a little weird first of all it feels weird because we're the one sport that's gone on at its usual schedule Yeah, right all the other sports had to stop Restart some sports are in bubbles sports without fans college football Some conferences are canceling the nfl is the one sport that's basically gone ahead Almost at its regular pace So even that is disorienting because the whole rest of the sports calendar has been off But then the fact that there's no preseason games Is weird like the rhythm of the preseason is off Yeah, it's been strange and I was like so I was looking at the the football almanac and like You published this in like mid july correct? Yes Was there like trepidation for you when you're going through all the countless hours of editing this thing about like You know because you were probably doing this back way earlier when we didn't really know what the nfl Is going to look like how nerve wracking was that for you to put that work in not knowing what things would look like What else was I going to do with my time? We went forward like the season was going to happen the way the season always happens and it was you know I mean if it's not going to then all this work is for not but This is what I do for a living so you know, I'm very lucky actually that in everything that's going on I was able to continue to do for a living what I do for a living So we just kept working on the book like there was going to be a season and Hope that we weren't going to have the rug pulled out from under us already I mean there's a whole college section of the book. That's basically an alternative history novel of support Yeah, you guys put a lot of work into the college I mean, I think it's the top 50 teams that you have summaries on Yeah, and number projections for all the teams that includes all of their original schedules So even the teams that are going to play aren't going to play the schedule that we have them listed as play right That's tough. So 11 and a half No, nobody's getting 11 nobody's getting 11 wins this year, right But this is the 16th year you've done this. Um, so congratulations on that. That's really cool What brought about the idea of publishing this almanac yearly and has gotten you through 16 years Well, it started out actually as pro football perspectives So when I first started football outsiders in 2003 We were approached by baseball perspective and they were doing books in other sports with their publisher at the time There was a basketball book that was written by john Hollinger And there was a football book and they asked us to take over the football book starting in 2005 So our first four books are actually called pro football perspectives and they were done by actual publishers And then starting with 2009 We started to self publish and we changed the name of the book to football outsiders almanac So there've been 12 almanacs and then the four perspectives before that That is a lot of publishing and a lot of work and a lot of editing that has gone into that So congratulations on getting that far But the other reason we want to talk to you today outside of just the almanac, which we'll get back to But the inventor of dvoa dvoa is a number that a lot of us lean on when it comes to discussing the nfl trying to judge strength and all those things When did you first concoct dvoa and what led to that creation as well? Well, I was playing around with things in 2002 And I ended up with a database of every play in the season And I was just trying to think of some ideas of what to do with So it starts with the basic idea from the book the hidden game of football of success points that each play is successful or not successful based on the down and distance and then that eventually developed into needing to compare Success points to some sort of average because we ended up with mike allsdott as the most valuable running back in the league in 2002 And the reason why is that mike allsdott tended to get the ball in situations where success was likely right He was carrying the ball in third and one. He was carrying the ball at the goal line So there needed to be something to control for the fact that most running backs have success on third and one, right? That it's not like third and ten So that's where the over average came in and then the system has developed gradually over time since there Excellent So we're going to talk about the football outside of the almanac I've used it every year to do my nfl prep. I highly recommend that anyone interested Check it out. You have each team's dva dvoa projection for the upcoming season. Can you just give us a bird's-eye view of how that comes about? Sure, there's a number of variables that go into it. It starts with their dvoa from the last three years With last year counting about six times as much as either two or three years ago But we do account for two and three years ago because teams do tend sometimes to settle back into their like longer term pattern And starting with dvoa means we're already filtering out a lot of luck Based, you know differences that you know The reasons why a lot of people are high on the cowboys this year, right? Is because their underlying performance last year was much better than their actual win-loss record Well dvoa already You know controls for that because their dvoa was much better than their win-loss record would normally Suggest so by starting with dvoa We're already starting with you know Dallas up and Green Bay down and the teams that their underlying statistics last year didn't match their win-loss record Then there's variables for things like coaching continuity offensive line continuity performance in a couple of specific places and then personnel changes So we do account for personnel changes on both offense and defense and then the quarterback on offense We do a specific quarterback projection That way when a team changes quarterbacks like for example going from james winston to tom brady We can try to account for what that different quarterback is going to mean although it's you know, you can't ever Project a quarterback without including Some sort of team, you know the team is going to play some role in those numbers We can't pot. You know totally separate what brady's done the last couple years from who he had on the patriots You can't separate winston from who he had on the bucks and so on and so forth Aaron um, you've been on my podcast and talked about uh, the statistical significance of a wade philips being your defensive coordinator What is your reaction to the fact that he is jobless right now? Yeah, I I mean, I hope he's jobless because he wants to be because he shouldn't be jobless because He should be he's he's one of the best if not the best defensive coordinator of the last 30 years So people ask us about whether we control for specific coaches And the problem is there's very few coaches who have been with different organizations with enough different organizations That you have a real sample size that you can use to judge What their impact is on teams, right? How much is um, Sean mcvay How much is it Sean mcvay and how much is it the rams or jarragoff or? You know Right So if mcvay suddenly went to another team you you couldn't say oh well This team is going to be x better because of mcvay because you don't know how much of mcvay was mcvay philips has been with so many teams by this point that you can actually look and see That defenses get better when wade philips shows up You can't account for that in a way. You can't for other uh, especially for other Assistant coaches Yeah, do you get a 35 year old andrew whitworth along with sean mcvay when he moves like is that a situation? So yeah, I think that that makes a lot of sense and a lot of factors And that's the issue with football is a lot of factors not a lot of sample size pretty much anywhere It definitely makes things tough for you, but then makes it more impressive when the numbers bear out So let's talk about other stuff along with the dvo a projections in the almanac You have projected win totals. You got playoff odds super bowl odds, etc. etc for every single team And that's always tough to begin with but now this year we have Additional uncertainty with covet 19. So do you have to make any manual tweaks to those to adjust for? Potential additional uncertainty relative to usual Well, obviously you can't include covet 19 in your projection system If you're doing statistical projections because there's no past covet 19 seasons to use as an example. Thankfully Um, we made a decision not to make any subjective changes based on covet 19 And I think the reason why is our projections are naturally very conservative like our projections the way that we Simulate wins and losses End up with teams averaging very close to eight and eight like teams get very clustered around eight and eight Almost every team in the league ends up between six and nine wins as their average for example And so I think that we all believe that the effect of covet 19 is going to be to group teams closer together because You don't know which players are going to suddenly disappear in the middle of the season It's going to have sort of a random effect on certain teams and you know It's not going to treat the good teams any different than the bad teams, but good teams will be losing better personnel So it's going to bring things closer to eight and eight. So since we already had a really conservative system We didn't feel like it made sense to make a subjective manual change that would bring the team even closer to eight and eight But it's certainly it's tough to balance It's not a good year to play favorites and that at the same time Our projection has three teams far and ahead away from the rest of the league So by our projection system, we really like three favorites, but it's not a good year to play favorites Um, were you surprised can you can you go over those three top teams and and whether he's whether you're surprised that any of them were there No, I think the teams make a lot of sense. They're teams that are uh, in particular two of them are very balanced between offense and defense Um, and the other one has the best offensive projection because they have the best quarterback So the three teams that we have ahead of everybody else are new orleans kansas city And then a little bit behind them baltimore Baltimore was the best team in the league during the regular season last year So it shouldn't surprise anybody that we have them Very far ahead New orleans has been really strong in the regular season for years now on both offense and defense. It's they've had these crazy playoff losses But the fact is that the team has been very strong in the regular season and then kansas city has the best offense And offense is easier to predict than predict than defense So for example, all three of those teams make the playoff at least 70 of the time And no other team we have above 60 percent All three of those teams win the super bowl at least 10 of the time and we don't have any other team above five percent That's very interesting And I think that that's even with the conservatism of the of the projections Which shows you how optimistic the numbers are about those three teams and erin along those same lines You know talking about surprises relative to expectation like we all have our thoughts about teams before we run These numbers and stuff like that Were there any surprises for you personally before you ran the dvo a numbers for this year? Were there any teams that popped up as being different from where you expected them to be going in? I think if if I had just Ranked every team subjectively at the beginning of the process I probably would not have ended up with indianapolis as high Or jacksonville as high As I ended up with by jacksonville as high. I mean not last They're like 26 through 27th, right? Like they're not good Right, but there are reasons to believe that they are not the worst team in the league like people think now There's a subjective reason to believe that they are the worst team in the league There's a subjective reason to believe that they might be just tanking the season Right like I can't control for that in my number, right? But they were something like the 26th best offense last year. I don't see why We should expect that they're suddenly going to become the worst offense when they were 26th last year I think it's more likely that they're like 26 again um But indianapolis for one thing they have the easiest projected schedule Uh, and then for other reasons about sort of the way things bounce back and you know The fact that we use three years of data rather than just one their defense ended up a little bit better than I expected and uh, you know, the way that we treat the aging quarterbacks is It's tough you because there haven't really been a lot of quarterbacks at this age in the future I mean in the past we're not looking at age as much as we're looking at performance over the last two or three years So you it sees raffles burger rivers and brady all bouncing back a little bit Which affects like indianapolis's projection. So we ended up with indianapolis Higher than I think I would have expected they end up. I think if In projected wins it might be sixth now after seattle added jamal adam Uh, but but having the easiest schedule in the league is part of that Excellent So the full almond act shows uh, how often each team is going to Finish in a different win range from super bowl contender to you know, worst team whether that's jacksonville Which team do you think is going to have kind of like the most high variance results? Like what's what's the most intriguing team to you? So I looked this up earlier which teams had the highest variance and I don't have any variables in here that specifically try to create variance I've actually thought about doing that in the future. For example, I wonder if It might make the system more accurate to have a variable for the backup quarterback As well as a variable for the starting quarterback because in the you know, when you do end up with the backup quarterback There's a big difference between having james winston And having some fifth round rookie who nobody's ever heard of or like logan white side or something wood side logan wood side um So uh tampa bay though had a wide range Pittsburgh had a wide range and new england had a wide range. Those were the three widest ranges A lot of that has to do with um defensive regression that's expected from Pittsburgh and new england because their defenses were so dependent on turnovers Last year, but a lot of it also has to do with sort of the not being sure what you're getting at at quarterback with those teams Yeah, and they're easily the three most drastic ones And I think that the the pittsburgh one is pertinent too as you were just talking about the back of quarterback because There's a pretty massive gap between ben rothelsberger and mason rudolf regardless of you expect mason rudolf to be somewhat better than what he was last year It makes sense. So I'd be interested to see how that would work as well Let's talk about playoffs here because over at vandal sportsbook You can bet yes or no on the playoffs for every single team and like we mentioned You have those literal numbers available to you uh via the the projections Any teams seem to present a bunch of value in either direction based on the current odds at vandal Yeah, this is one where I think we're going out a bit on a limb compared to everybody else But the san francisco 49ers to miss the playoffs at plus 300 Really like that one not that I think they're gonna miss the playoffs I I have a feeling we have them a little bit too low, but In they only make the playoffs in about half of our simulations Because of the fact that we account account for the last three years Not just the last year San francisco last year was the first team in 35 years of dvoa To improve by 20 percent on both sides of the ball It had never happened before that a team had improved by so much on both sides And there's a little bit of this thing called the plexiglass principle Which suggests that for most teams when they improve dramatically from year one to year two They have some retrenchment in year three when you combine that with some of the personnel changes that they've made Losing a manual standards on offense losing the forest buck they're on defense We're expecting them to come back to the pack a little bit and then also a hard schedule being in a really hard division Right. Like we have all four nfc west teams projected with an average over 8.0 with So, you know, if you ask me to bet You know even money, I would say san francisco will make the playoffs But if you're getting plus 300 on them missing the playoffs, I think that's a really good bet Yeah, and san francisco's defense was so good and you already talked about how defensive performance is not very predictable from your year As much as you're pretty A lot of the offense is everybody's like shanahan shanahan shanahan the offense can't possibly You know not be a top 10 offense The first two years shanahan was there. It was not a top 10 offense Not every year that he was mid-lander. Did he have a top 10 off like shanahan does not have this impeccable record Even though the fact is that film geek swear by his design Right. Yeah, and that's and also grapple. I still think has a lot to prove Good year last year, but Yeah, I mean he's still he's got to do it again before I'm a full believer I agree So let's talk about the Super Bowl odds because you mentioned how the uh, the chiefs the ravens and the saints are kind of outliers And they are above the pack from a Super Bowl odds perspective Are there any teams you're looking at here in a year where we may want to fade the favorites because of the uncertainty Is maybe being better than their odds would indicate to win the Super Bowl Based on the odds that you guys have at fan duel absolutely new orleans saints plus 1200 Okay, perfect I would I would have the new orleans saints with kansas city and baltimore right kansas city is at plus 650 baltimore's at plus 700 We actually have new orleans as the favorite to win the whole thing right now Okay, but even if but even if you don't have them as the favorite If you had them third out of that group It still would suggest that their odds should be with baltimore and kansas city Not like twice not almost twice as much at plus 1200 So looking at the Super Bowl odds at fan duel the one I would like is to put on new orleans saints at plus 1200 And they don't have to compete with the chiefs of the ravens into the Super Bowl, which definitely helps too Right those two teams we have ahead of the rest of the afc, but they have to compete with each other Whereas we have new orleans I mean their projection has a pretty good gap between them and the top other top teams that we have in the nfc Which are dallas seattle and tampa bay Yeah, absolutely. Well, that is erin shots We have a link to the football outsiders almanac in the show notes over on number fire So if you want to link to that go to numberfire.com and check that out Aaron, I appreciate you taking the time to talk some football with us to get sent for the season there You've got it again. There you go in full print as well. I think it's like 500 pages. That is Yeah, that's a lot of that's a lot of football knowledge in there Jonathan can the city chief's colors to celebrate their victory. All right I love it. Well, erin. Thank you so much. Uh, congratulations on 16 years of the book and have fun as nfl season We'll talk to you again soon. Thank you so much for having me on the show and yeah Here's to a season that lasts 16 games and is sort of kind of normal. Let's make it. Let's do it That's all we can ask. Thank you so much Covering the future Big thank you once again to erin shots Make sure you give him a follow on twitter if you don't already I'm sure a lot of you already do but at fo underscore a shots to check out his work there and ed that almanac There's just so much goodness in there from front to cover like it's just it's a lot of work Yeah, for sure And I really like the almanac for the context that it gives you on teams, right? So whether it's a coaching change whether it's like how a particular pass rusher is performed And whether you know because sometimes a guy will get a lot of pressures and not necessarily report a lot of sacks And we know that will probably you know regress for the better and he'll get more sacks the next year You know football is all about context, right and we've been a lot of statistics to try to account for that context But especially in the nfl in the preseason I think you really need to know about player situations and you know how each individual player is performed And they really do a good job with that Well, it's not just that context but also the context of showing the range of outcomes in wins and how often they spit They fit in specific ranges because we talked about this with whalecapper and his the way his model works Like that's so key in helping you from a betting perspective knowing That variance because there's a big difference between a high variance team with an eight and a half wind projection versus a low variance team And it's important to know that and they do you know put that out there within each individual team preview So context is Critical critical crucial critical whatever you want to call it and they do provide that So make sure again if you want to find they go to numberfire.com We have a link there. Otherwise just search for the football outsiders almanac and should pop up that way too Let's move into covering the future and we had whalecapper on last week drew dinsic to talk about the nba Sounds like you've been running some nba numbers since that discussion What did you find when you were crunching things over at the power bank? Yeah, in some sense. I wanted to check like his idea and see what Uh, it it gave me so the idea is like let's look at the markets and what they've said since the all-star break on these teams And normally like I I try not to trust a small sample size and I wouldn't trust, you know You know efficiency numbers and that sample size or whatnot, but the markets are a little bit different, right? We know it I tend to trust that and I spent small sample size more just because it is the market It is kind of the gold standard or prediction and what I do is I put those games I adjust for who you played and it gives me rankings just like It gives me rankings and and and point spreads on on neutral courts, which is exactly what we're seeing in the bubble so I ran those numbers and uh Got a team ranking for every team looked compared it to the markets and found who is actually garbage Uh, it wasn't it wasn't anywhere near where these projected point spreads were so Usually point spreads were a lot less Than what the market spread was and I was like, oh, okay. Well, we need to dig a little bit harder So so what you need to do is you need to again control for context, right? You can't just take every game you need to take, you know If you're trying to get the box you need games in which they have Yanis and they have chris middleton if you want the lakers you need to have games in which they have Lebron in which they have anthony davis as well So if you just do the team analysis by taking You know these closing point spreads in the market and and coming up with team rankings after you adjust for who you Who you play if you just do it the simple way you get that the bucks and the lakers are both about seven points better than mba average when you just isolate the games in which uh, you know Their top two players play then you start seeing a separation with milwaukee and this is what uh, drew was talking about last week I think I talked about it a couple weeks ago You know milwaukee's the best team in the mba when when they have all their guys Uh, they're about 10.2 points better than mba average And now when you start looking at it, orlando is about minus a point and a half Worse than than mba average and you're getting a point spread of about 11 and a half And and that's pretty much what the markets are giving you at 12 So suggests not any value there um With the lakers, they're 8.3 points better than mba average when they have lebron and anthony davis That's obviously pretty good. They're they're a serious title contender Um, and I actually had to change my calculation a bit For portland because I wanted both the amion lullard and uh, nerkich the big guy who who hasn't played in every single game When they have both of those guys the markets think they're four points better than mba average So that suggests that um That the point spread in that game should be about four four and a half It's been six in the first game So, you know, is there value there? Maybe. Um, we had the result where Uh, portland one game one, uh, but there was a couple of things going on that game The lakers couldn't hit a shot at all Especially from three. They shot really terribly from three. They shot anywhere near what, uh, they would shoot In a game. They probably win that game And potentially cover as well but I mean portland came out and punched them in the mouth and and the lakers didn't Didn't I mean The portland was the more active team the more energetic team and that was clear kind of from the get go So, um, I think a lot of people expect the series to be a little bit closer Maybe potentially even competitive. Um, you know, especially if portland can get another win in game two or game three So, um, also looking, uh, another series that I've been kind of looking at as the clippers, uh, versus dalis So, you know, if you have, uh quite Leonard and paul george for the clippers if dalis has, uh, both donchich and, uh, porzingas playing It suggests that the clippers should be about a four and a half point favorite in that series Um, the markets have been about six and a half And so it's this is interesting to me right because it's a direct check on Yeah, you know what the market should do going forward based on what they've what they've done in the past Um, so that's another thing i'm keeping an eye on Um, and um, yeah, we'll see how this analysis goes. It's very interesting I was checking you were talking about the bucks magic and how it was still very heavily slanted towards the bucks I was like, oh like cool. Maybe people are going to be Off the bucks give them what happened last year in the playoffs given You know, maybe there's this perception that they can't win So I went to fandal sports book and looked at the odds and like 12 told them to have They're minus 6 000 to win the series still, uh, the magic are 15 to 1 to win the series So if you wanted to buy low on the bucks, you don't really have a chance to do so Like the the markets are still there, but I think that the data on Specifically with nerk itch, uh, that's really interesting too because it does change the context That's one thing that drew mention too when we were talking last week Is the difference nerk itch makes so I think it's smart that you have those numbers where you can isolate when they have Those two key players in there Yeah, absolutely. And and I don't know if adam stanco talked about it on our show, but He's he's very high on nerk itch and he thinks he is a difference maker on the court Um, you know, he's a big he actually has a pretty good looking stroke Even though he doesn't shoot a lot of three-pointers and um, yeah, I mean that could that could really be a fascinating series Yeah, and if we can get good series from both the la teams right off the jump that would make things pretty pretty exciting We'll see how things play out there and I'm sure get more updates on the nba as we go along for my cover in the future I want to discuss something we were talking about with erin before which is the playoff bets over at fandall sports book because I've kind of flirted with this one throughout the entire off season But I want to fully commit to it today and bet the bills at plus 144 to miss the playoffs For 2020 the implied odds of the bills missing the playoffs at that number are 41 Percent which means their odds before the vig of making the playoffs would be 59 percent You're going to have a hard time Finding projection systems that will buy that number at the bills at 59 percent to make the playoffs at number fire We have our power rankings up They have the bills 15th the power rankings with a projected 8.6 wins Which gives them 53 percent odds to make the playoffs. So you're getting about 6 percentage points of value there if we look at football outsiders and their almanac There's even more value going against the bills there because they have the bills at just 43 percent to make the playoffs And that's right in line with the detroit lions who for context are minus three 10 to miss the playoffs Whereas the bills are plus 144 So maybe this should actually be make bet the lions to make the playoffs But uh, we're talking about the bills here because I think this one Yeah, fair enough As a detroit guy or a michigan guy you probably know a thing or two about that But as far as the bills go I think it makes a lot of sense that the projection systems will be lower on the bills because josh allen Did get better last year But it's easy to get better when your baseline is so low and they did add stiff on dig steps should help them a little bit But allen was still 27th in per drop back efficiency last year according to number fires metrics He was a couple of spots behind elie manning and right ahead of marcus mariota and sam darnold great company to keep for josh allen So even if he does get better with stiff on digs He needs big improvements to be a top 20 quarterback in terms of efficiency And there's also the chance that he goes the other way I mean like after improving last year We can't just assume because he's young he continues to get better So josh allen could prove me wrong and the talent is you know at times there the defense Could be solid again But if I can get plus 144 on a team quarterback by josh allen to miss the playoffs I'm gonna take that I think that you know, maybe things could have gotten better with them Uh, you talked about the market rankings with the patriots and all the opt outs they had maybe that does help the bills But even with that being accounted for I still think the bills are a good bet to miss the playoffs at plus 144 right now Ed what about you? What are your numbers saying about the bills as we sit here in mid august? Yeah, I mean the I mean the numbers think that the bills are better than nfl average team Um, I I think you you're right to have questions about josh allen. Uh, I thought his performance last year was remarkable I don't know if he can do that again, but what does give me pause is i'm starting to rethink my analysis on new england I have been high on them just given the bellichick factor given how good their defense is But then when when i'm really thinking about my process for like evaluating nfl wind totals It it really comes down to the quarterback I you know, I I I'm just not going to go against the team with a good quarterback Right with with with a reasonable wind total number And then when you think about you know, I've been saying so much about the strength of their secondary And that's certainly true, but when you think about how much past defense it regresses from year to year Uh, that makes me worry there Bellichick is still the best and and we'll see what he can do But I guess I guess I'm having uh, I'm having questions about the patriots And that's the only reason I would doubt like going against the bills to not make the playoffs I mean, obviously we just bet like we said we bet the dolphins then like, you know, just Let's just dive fully in get on the tua train and uh bet the dolphins. What are the dolphins here? I think I looked this up last week But the dolphins plus four tend to make the playoffs easy money there If you're a huge adam gaze person plus 430 on the jets, what could possibly go wrong? This is this is great. This is this would be fine. We don't need the patriots to to get the bills out of there. We'll be fine Yeah We'll see that would be huge shake up in the mcs I am looking forward to the bills fans. Uh, I'm sure taking this very well There are a lot of reasonable bills fans So, uh, I have faith in in bills mafia to handle this one well And that is all the time that we have for today I want to give a big thank you once again to erin shots of football outsiders for talking about the football outsiders almanac Make sure you follow him on twitter at f o underscore a shots to get all this stuff there and check out the football Outsiders almanac. It is well worth the read there for sure. Ed. What's going on for you over at the power egg this week Yeah, you can get uh my nfl preseason rankings based on fandoms wind totals This is something that is part of my numbers all year long Obviously with decreasing weight as the season goes across But like, you know, it's such a small season in the end of such a short season in the nfl You really do need a good preseason prior. This is the biggest part of my preseason prior Uh, and you can get it right now So sign up for my free email newsletter at the power bank dot com And you mentioned last week. Yeah, jay j's acorice on the football analytics show as well So uh, make sure you check that out uh to hear you talk to jay j about projections. I assume right Yeah, I'm really dug into his model We talked about how he builds things from the team first and then gets down into individual players and and looks at target share and just how that's a combination of both science and and art Sometimes he has to make little tweaks and things. Uh, really good conversation I've had jay j on before to talk about games and playoffs and stuff But it was really nice to have him to talk about his bread and butter, which is seasonal fantasy football projecting, you know fantasy points projecting You know and things that matter when you're when you're betting player props to right in terms of touchdowns and yards and and all that stuff as well So, um, you know, we found out how good his models were last year when with some of the things he had on a show Probably need to have him on again to talk nfl player props soon so yeah, it was it was um It was really nice to have him to talk about his forte Awesome, make sure to check that out over at the football analytics show and check out uh, Ed's rankings at the powerank.com as well. I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n and e s you can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcasts as a reminder As we get close to nfl season make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread to get the podcasts right when they are posted So you can dig in and try to find some betting value big Thank you to calvin theobald our video producer for running the video side of things to you today Thank you cal as always and thank you to everyone for tuning in good luck with your bets Uh, hopefully everyone is healthy and safe as we get set for nfl season We can sit back enjoy and just watch some football and continue the sports wonderful time We've had over the past couple of weeks. We'll talk to you again soon This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network


Hi beautiful um so you guys are always commenting Brad are you okay Brad is everything good you've been a little off and it seems like no matter what I do would I say I'm always seeming off to some of you okay and maybe that is because I'm a little yeah I'm well I'm never not okay but I'm never okay okay hold on let me let me get into some light here I am good okay I have a great life I have friends that love me I have family I have this puppy that I am obsessed with a great job I make good money so like what is there really to complain about you know the stress is usually because I overworked myself yeah I do but because I've overworked myself for so long I've come up with a lot of ways to like destress myself right people that overworked themselves they need a vice so you call it a vice they need to know how to decompress after they compress so I'm gonna take you guys along a journey today of decompression I think I have some good ways of decompressing it's nothing groundbreaking but they're good and I also just want to talk today to somebody so you're gonna be my friend I do have friends but today I don't have here's anybody here to talk to sometimes it's nicer talking to an inanimate object I will say so you are that inanimate object but you're actually real because you're on the other side you know what I mean I want to just like vent talk about what's going on in my life what are the things that are stressing me out maybe talk about my dating life a little bit not that anybody cares but and yeah I just want to like what if I just film all my videos like this I just want to take this night to feel good I want to feel relaxed and like chill with you okay so I definitely bought myself something hold on I told you I wasn't feeling good so I had to go shopping I don't always buy myself stuff when I'm feeling stressed but like sometimes I do sometimes I'm just like Brad you work your ass off go and spend something if you're making money why aren't you spending it type of moment you know because like life is short so you have the means to go shopping and you feel like I say why not so let's see what I got actually this is very unrelatable but I have my assistant go to the store and get things for me I know whatever I never claimed to be relatable it's fine so this is what I got I've wanted them for so long and honestly right now am I feeling happier yeah am I feeling less stress yeah cuz it like takes my mind off of the bullshit that's happening in my life love and puts it on the shoe thank you shoe I'm kind of obsessed I've wanted these for a while and I've been like do I really want to look like a little lad and the decision was yes I do obviously they're cute as and they're very practical and like really also kind of crazy looking at the same time I'll put one on my foot I actually hope that they fit hope that they fit because product sizes they they'd be fucking with me sometimes ooh they're so cute especially with this outfit really giving with this already I'm feeling beautiful and happy okay I know that wasn't practical Prada shoes look beautiful I can't wait to wear them tomorrow what do I wear them with oh I have so many options I have a date tomorrow these would actually be perfect for that date and that also brings me to something that is which is dating dating is hard you guys I feel like dating is actually one of the most torturous activities ever I also try to stay positive about it because like what else is there to do and I also continue to manifest which I'll get into later dating is tough especially when you live in New York City and like everybody's so young and like just moved here it's just really hard to find somebody who I actually like I actually want to like date long term with that being said I go on a lot of dates a lot of bad ones a lot of decent ones and then like not a lot of great ones but you know we're manifesting we're visualizing every day and I will get there but you know it's gonna take time for me to find somebody that I really really really like but sometimes dating is a really mentally and physically exhausting honestly I think I just need to try not to take it so seriously even though I'm a very obsessive person and when I like something I like it a lot when I do something I want to do it to the extreme and so I think I should like chill a little bit and like not go on somebody dates and like not mentally exhaust myself when it comes to dating I'm sure you can understand like dating apps are the worst but then it's like if you don't have it what do you do that's the spot I'm in right now I think what I really need to do before I get any farther into this video is meditate um meditation has been amazing in my life there's been times my life where I've done it a lot more than I do now the harder life gets the more I meditate really but I think it's a practice that everybody should know and everybody should utilize in their lives I think it's so important when it comes to mental health just knowing how to meditate and knowing your own meditation practice is really important just to living a healthy good life and I have to like constantly remind myself Brad you need to take a second you need to meditate you need to chill out so I'm gonna tell you what I like to do it's not always like this where I'm like actually sitting cross-legged like it that's disgusting cross-legged I don't give a shit it's like it it's leg now I often meditate in the shower what meditation really does is you have to learn how to shut your mind off you to learn how to not let this thing that's coming in and this thing coming in and this thing coming in this thing coming in the tiktok you watched an hour ago just all seeping into your brain and the TV show that you watch earlier and the YouTube videos and the the thing that your mom said of your dad said of your friend said that pissed you off like you can't let all those things get into your brain or else you're gonna explode right and I do this all the time oh I am an overthink your times 10 but meditation has calmed that down a lot so whenever I'm feeling overwhelmed I can feel my brain going too fast I like to sit down close my eyes or do this in the shower whatever I do it's your own practice it's your own thing and I can do it for five minutes ten minutes usually that's like the maximum is like ten minutes for me I will just sit here and practice controlling my thoughts basically is what it is basically just not letting anything get into your brain clearing it out so it's just darkness when you do that practice constantly you can actually bring that into a daily life so you can actually meditate when your eyes aren't closed or when you're not when you're not sitting like this so it's definitely something I like to do when my life becomes a little bullshit or just on a daily so let's meditate together that felt great so what I actually do when I'm meditating is I've visualized myself as thoughts come in I visualize myself like pushing them out like guarding the safe space that is my mind I'm such a little like yogi bitch I love it lighting is so harsh part of taking care of this thing that gives me a lot of trouble this thing that gives me a lot of trouble love you um is eating well okay so we're cooking some fucking gold pineapple unfried rice there's a lot of veggies in this I'm also making myself an herbal tea so I can drain these toxins out through my urine should be good this food is so damn good this isn't sponsored it's like all organic vegan food that's prepared for you like the night before and then delivered to you it's so good and obviously we have to put some hot sauce on there chelula specifically okay but I don't hot sauce discriminate I think I'm always just trying to find like balance in my life I don't know how to do that I've always been like a workaholic it's like I'm obsessive working it's the thing that validates me in life and I always have something to prove to people I don't know why probably because I'm the youngest sibling and I'm like fuck you like I will be the best that's a whole nother issue I'll save that one for my therapist though obviously you guys know like in an influencer's job is basically also what they do for fun you know it's very hard not to exploit yourself I'm even kind of doing it right now where I'm like exploiting my free time by recording it and showing you what I do in my free time but at the same time it's what I really like doing if I weren't exploiting the things that I like in a way I wouldn't want to film it it's not just like a thing I need to like figure out is how I can maintain this job that I've been doing for the last five years also not make myself feel like I have to always be on and always be working even though that's something I really like doing see how the issue is kind of just like it's building it's like but I like it but I don't like it but I do but it's what makes me happy but then it makes me crazy but then it and that's why we meditate okay I don't want you to take that as like I'm not happy I want you to take it as like I'm always trying to grow and understand how I can get more and more balance in my life I'm gonna bring you for a walk huh yes I do I gotta bring you for a walk the city is so beautiful it definitely does add to the overwhelmedness and stress of my life very fast-paced dry food in my teeth no but these look white as f*** on camera what listen it's very overwhelming you do obviously get used to it but I will say like whenever there are times that I leave the city I definitely feel more relaxed but I think that I've just become so accustomed to this lifestyle that it almost feels kind of relaxing here but also I mean no matter how much I get used to it listen to what's going on around me like just so many so much so much honking having a dog really does help with like my mental state because she obviously always needs to be walked and I like to go for really long walks on different paths and try not to use my phone at all during the walk which doesn't always work but you know it really does help like clear my head and I practice meditate I practice meditation as I walk to and it's pretty chill you know I'm gonna take a bath it feels like the right thing to do right now and I'm gonna put some dead sea salt in because it makes my skin feel so good I want to be with my thoughts or without my thoughts actually and I want to manifest so let's do some manifesting in the bathtub okay we're getting myself a gel manicure I don't like to give myself gem gel manicures but I don't like getting them more but I do like the feeling of having a gel manicure so tomorrow when I wake up with a beautiful gorgeous fabulous set of nails I'm going to feel great which is why this is a part of my mental recovery regime this always makes me feel just very put together I think we're gonna go with like black I'm gonna put little stars in my nails too my job is you know it's good but you know obviously it is very stressful I film a lot of hair videos on every platform in existence and I love hair I don't want to stop doing hair and I'll probably always do hair but obviously it can get a little tiring today I was like you know what we're gonna do something different I'm gonna chill with y'all obviously when you do something day in and day out every single day of your life it can get tired especially for like an artistic person Artists always want to change typically always want to push themselves I mean a lot of people want that but like especially people in the arts it's hard for us to stay stagnant sometimes it feels like I'm staying stagnant by doing the same thing all the time what's the best thing to do when you are feeling stagnant do something different do something that gets you out of your comfort zone that's what I'm doing while also trying to maintain happiness I don't social media in general is like a hard thing to navigate everybody judges everything is very outward there's nothing to hide your success is very public as well and your failures are very public and that's something I struggle with sometimes just you know not wanting to ever fail and not wanting to be publicized but we all know that's not possible and a lot of I'm cutting my cuticles and I'm not paying attention I don't know it's like what what is the future in tail for Brad Mondo sometimes I'm like what if I didn't always do hair what if there was something else I don't know man I think taking some time and like doing these different kinds of videos sort of helps me like uncover what other passions I have oh hello where you going let's talk about manifestation shall we if it weren't for manifestation I know I wouldn't have any of this I have right now everything go to bed I like to visualize and feel what it's like to have the things that I want to have whether that be a healthy relationship more friends a good family relationship more money business opportunities anything like that like I actually visualize myself having it and that's the important part about menopent fainting it's actually like making yourself believe you already have it it's not about wanting it's about already having oh hello where did I go so you gotta pretend you got that that you want which is the hard part if you can achieve that and let your imagination run wild you get the things that you want in life you know there was a time this year that I wasn't really doing that and I started doing it again and I changed like so quickly I think it's so cool that you can want things into existence girl blackmail polish it's mad hard I don't know if I got the patience for it I'm going to try these little stubby nails the hell is this yeah I don't know a big one of mine obviously like you guys heard me say earlier I'm interested in having a new relationship I got out of a long-term relationship kind of recently and maybe realize that I actually really value relationships I like having somebody there for me I like having somebody listen my bullsh** and I can listen to their bullsh** and we can be bullsh** and we can be bullsh** together you know it's a good time this is difficult I have to do like 16 layers of black polish to make this look good I don't want to do it but I'm gonna feel so good when it's done and it's gonna make me feel so cute and sexy I finished my nails don't look too close I definitely have a s**t a little bit but they have little stars on them little gold stars it's cute you know what I'll take it they'll look good once I shower one time right isn't that like how it works and I feel gorgeous I'm f*****g tired, hair break, meditation and bath time took a lot out of me that's the journey for today honey I mean I gotta go do the most important thing of all which is sleep if I don't get enough of that bitch better watch out I'm the worst tired person ever like I hate the feeling of being tired gotta get my six to eight hours um preferably eight but usually six and uh yeah you can also check out my hair care my hair color line linked right here and you can also check us out at xmondohair.com you guys want to check out any other videos do it that's all for today thanks for watching don't forget to like your extra life I don't know this feels weird doing an outro in the vlog whatever uh I'll see you next time bye