Let me introduce this evening dinner speaker, Olivier Blanchard. Actually, it doesn't need an introduction. If not for saying that his insights, both provocative and rigorously argued, have often attained the highest goal, or what I think is the highest goal, that any macroeconomist would like to achieve. Namely, make people change minds on important issues that were thought as settled, and draw from this new perspective momentous economic and social policy implications. One of these issues is the role of fiscal policy and public debt in a low interest environment. Olivier, the floor is yours. Thank you for the incredibly kind word. It is truly a great honor to have been invited to give this talk to an amazingly distinguished audience. It is also an immense personal pleasure to be the dinner speaker for what will be Mario's last intro event, at least in this official capacity. Put simply in awe of what Mario has achieved over the last eight years. He will probably be remembered for three words, which on their own and without having to take any posterior action, literally saved Europe from tragedy. But remembering him just for these three words would be unfair. And behind the three words, there was a lot of preparation, both intellectual and political, to make sure that the three words were credible. And Mario's contribution, I think, to the ECB and to my trip on this in general, is much deeper than just what history will remember, which is probably these three words. He has done it for a combination of, I would say on the one hand, pragmatism and intellectual creativity, and on the other, an exceptional political or geopolitical sense. That's really what defines him. Larry Summers, who gave a speech last year, I think, had it right, which is he said, you sometimes meet policy makers who are exceptionally pragmatic and creative, and sometimes you meet policy makers who are extremely good politicians. It's very rare. It's exceptional that basically you meet somebody who fits both boxes. I think when history is written, Mario will probably be there in the pantheon of the fathers of Europe. They created Europe, but he saved it. And that's at least as important as creating it. Mario can relax. That's all the nice things I'm going to say about him. Because I want to move from Mario to the institution, to the ECB. I mean, the ECB is not one person, and you all know that. But through Mario's influence and that of his predecessors, and I'm looking at Jean Claude there as well, the ECB has achieved a truly amazing transformation. It is fair to say that when the ECB was put together at the start, we, or many of us on the other side of the pond, looked at what had been put together and were a bit worried, be it about the two pillars, which looked like a strange combination, the lack of buying of sovereign bonds, the asymmetric inflation target, all this to us looked like a recipe for disaster. I can say this now. I think some of us said it then. Now, and it came close. But what is extremely impressive is how much the ECB was able to modify, to transform itself and basically develop all kinds of new tools, which basically, in the end, have made it a very modern, a great central back. I mean, if I think about, again, the provision of liquidity, the purchase of a much larger set of assets that was in the initial on date, the negative interest rates. And it has done all this while maintaining, or indeed strengthening, its credibility, which is, again, an amazing achievement. So I mean, I would say that the ECB of today is hardly, I mean, the ECB of then is hardly recognizable today, at least to an outsider. It really has transformed itself and adjusted to the main changes which have taken place. So it is clear, again, that it deserves credit, not for being a great central bank, but having helped the recovery which has taken place since the financial crisis and the euro crisis. And here, I cannot resist a zinger. I had many more in my initial draft and they have been removed by people with more sense. But it seems to me that given how much it was able to change its skin without losing any credibility. I'm still disappointed that it refuses, it has refused, and refuses to consider a higher target inflation. We all understand that if it could happen without the loss of credibility, it would help. My new twist on this is to think that maybe we could have a target inflation which is higher than usual so long as the equilibrium real rates remain very low, which is the time when you need it. So eventually we would go back if the real rates recover to something like the existing target, but for a while it might actually be very useful to have a higher one. I don't think that this implies that the ECB would lose credibility in the light of all the other things that it has done. But this was the parenthesis and I will now move to the main part of the speech. So the main part of the speech is based on the idea that monetary policy as good as it is cannot do everything and that the Euro macro policy architecture suffers from two serious weaknesses which have shaped the history of the last 20 years and if nothing is done could shape also part of the next 10 or 20 years. I'm going to leave aside, I'm going to focus on the Euro macro policy architecture not the Euro macro financial architecture which is a whole different topic on which many people have much more expertise than I. So let me tell you what I see as the two weaknesses of the architecture. The first one is an old one which we knew at the beginning had been documented and has been documented since, which is the lack of adjustment of relative prices in a set of countries which suffer from different shocks. This was at the source of the large current account deficits in the South early on and we know what happened and it is now partly at the source of the large current account surpluses in the North which are not as bad an issue but are still an issue for the Eurozone. I don't think that this issue is solved and I think it will come back to haunt us or haunt you in the future. So that's the first thing I want to talk about. The second is newer and it comes from what I see as the inadequacy of the current fiscal framework in the light of extremely low interest rates which both have direct implications for optimal fiscal policy but also have very serious constraints on what monetary policy can do. And it seems here again that at this stage, fiscal policy is just not ready to do what it may have to do in the near future of a more distant future. So what I'm going to do is talk about each one. I'm going to talk about the first one because I think it has been under-talked in the recent past because somehow the current account deficits are partly gone or largely gone. But I still think that's a major issue but I'll focus much more on, as you could guess, on fiscal policy which these days is what I think about when I go to sleep. It's going to be, the other thing I should say is that this is going to be very much 30,000 feet thinking. I'm not going to try to say the rules should be changed this way or that way. I think that it's important to start at that level. Just think about the economics and then eventually come down at least closer to the ground. But I'm not going to do it. So let me start with the first. And before that, I want to start with what would the ideal architecture, macro architecture, macro policy architecture of common currency zone like the eurozone could be or should be. First, monetary policy should be in charge of euro level output. That's not the way central bankers would say that. They would say that is in charge of maintaining inflation at target. But I've always thought that there was a cross-relation between the two, which have called the divine coincidence. But conceptually, you basically want to make sure that aggregate output at the euro level is at the right level, is at potential. That would take care of monetary policy. The second is for fiscal policy, you should basically ignore macro and you should run what I would call pure public finance policy, which is what you need to do given the intergenerational redistribution that you may want to do, the aging of population how you deal with global warming. But you should not preoccupy yourself with what this will do to output because it's taken care of by the monetary authority. And then when you've done these two things, there's absolutely no reason that demand in any particular country will be at the right level. It will be right at the aggregate level, but not at the individual level. So you're going to have to have relative price adjustments in order to basically generate the demand, the foreign demand and domestic demand that you need to achieve output. And if you do all these things and all these things work, then you have the best of all worlds. It works perfectly. You have output at potential in all the countries. Fiscal does the right thing, pure public finance, and monetary policy does its job. Now, unfortunately, what we knew, I think, to start is that that's an idealized version, which basically in practice doesn't quite work. And this is where I want to take the first point. So the first point is, relative prices do not adjust, or at least do not adjust fast enough. And I think we knew that this was an issue. Some people thought that maybe it would improve under the pressure of having to do so. But it hasn't happened. And so if anything, actually, the downward wage rigidity, which comes from low inflation, has made it even harder to get wage decreases whenever they are needed. So I think the evidence from the last 20 years is relative price adjustment, wage and price adjustment, works very, very slowly at best. And maybe not at all. Now, can it be solved? I think the honest answer is not easily, because I see a set of major issues standing in the way. There has to be agreement as to what needs to be done, what the configuration of current account deficits and surpluses should be, ideally. That's the first point. Second point is how it should be achieved, whether it should be achieved through inflation, some countries deflation in others. And then even if in this room we all agreed on these things, then you actually have to have it happen and you have to have these adjustments of wages and prices at the country level, which have turned out to be very difficult to achieve. And on each of these, I think that there has been very little progress. So let me just talk about what I see as the issues. I'll start with an anecdote, which I think is revealing. In 2015, the five presidents report, which you may remember, said that it would be good to have a council of competitiveness and then to have national councils of competitiveness to basically discuss what the adjustment should be. Under the pressure of, I can say it's not a secret, under the pressure of Germany, there was very strong objection to the word competitiveness and these councils have been created, but in nearly all countries, they are called councils of productivity. And I think if you think about it, I think this reveals who we're thinking about current accounts and competitiveness, which is an issue for these adjustments. So that's the first point. I think we don't quite agree on what the right structure of current accounts should be. The second is that there are two ways to adjust. Suppose that you have current account deficits in the south, then you can have deflation in the south or you can have more inflation in the north. Now it turns out that if you're going to do these adjustments, it is infinitely better from a euro point of view to do it for inflation because when you do it for inflation, what you get is you get the appreciation and you also get real interest rates, which actually goes down. When it's done for deflation, say you ask Portugal or Spain to do it, then there is deflation, so you get some of the adjustment of relative prices you need, but you get a real rate, which goes up a whole lot. So when you actually sit down and you forget politics, which I'm trying to do, the optimal adjustment to a set of current account deficits and surpluses implies inflation in the north, de facto it's in the north, less deflation in the south. If this is true, it actually has an implication for optimal monetary policy at the central level, which is that when you have large current account imbalances across countries, the best way to do it is to do it for more inflation rather than forcing deflation, which means that target inflation for the ECB should actually be higher. But again here, I'm talking at 30,000 feet, something has to do it. Last point is suppose that we all agree in this room that Germany is going to have a lot of inflation, which is going to allow the other countries to adjust without having deflation. Suppose we did this. And it's still the issue of how you basically get these wage and price adjustments. Now there's something interesting about wage and price adjustments, which is what we're asking countries to do, say countries which have current account deficits, is to have wages go down, relative to what they would have done, and domestic prices, or domestically produced goods prices, go down. So the reduction in the real wage is relatively small. The problem is that it has to come with a decrease in the nominal wage, a decrease in domestic prices. They still decrease in the real wage coming from the fact that you import goods and these are more expensive. But in effect, it's a problem of coordination. It's a larger problem of trust, which is workers will accept a cut in wages or slow wage growth, only if they know that the firms will actually pass this through to prices and the real wage will not be very much affected. There is basically no mechanism to obtain that kind of coordination at the national level, except in a few countries. And the lack of trust is such that nobody wants to go first. The workers don't want to be the first ones to cut, which I understand. And the firms cannot commit to prices, given that price is going to all directions. So here again, I think for all three reasons, it's not working. And unless something is done at each of these margins, understanding, agreeing as to what the right configuration is, agreeing to the best way of adjusting and then creating what I've been pushing in various countries with total lack of success. Meetings of bilateral meetings with workers, firms and the state. If this doesn't happen, then we may see problems again. I don't think we'll see the problems that we saw at the start of the Euro. This was a shock, which was an enormous shock. But the notion that there will not be country-specific shocks in the future, I think just cannot be taken for granted. Okay, now let me move to fiscal. I had a joke, which I will move, but I'm going to put back. Which is, it was Ronald Reagan's quote, in which he said, the most hated nine words in the English vocabulary are, and you may know the quote. I am from the government and I'm here to help you. And I suspect that some of you are going to react to my remarks on fiscal policy in the same way. Good, but let me still try. It is, I think we would all agree that interest rates, real equilibrium interest rates have decreased a whole lot and markets at least think that this is going to last for a long time. It has been such a trend that it's hard to think that it's going to reverse anytime soon. So in that environment, and here I'm going to paraphrase in two sentences, the paper I gave at the AEA meetings. This has two general implications. The first one is an obvious one, which is that the cost of debt is smaller and that's nearly an identity. But here, the refinement on that statement, it's not just a fiscal cost, which clearly, that dynamics are more favorable, it's the economic cost. And the notion is that if the rate is so low, it's probably because the risk-adjusted marginal product of capital to be a bit nerdy about it is also not very high, which means that the crowding effect of capital, which is there, is not terribly costly. So I'm not going to go into this, but I would say in general, we should be more relaxed about that. That's the first implication. But on the benefit side, there is also an important point. Now, which is conceptually separate. It could, it need not happen, but basically when interest rates are very low or neutral rates are very low and you have very low inflation to start, then you get into what used to be called the zero lower bound, what is now called the effective lower bound. And nitric policy loses a lot of its ability to affect the economy, in which case you may be stuck and I think that gives a fairly strong case for using fiscal policy. So a combination of both, lower cost of debt, more need for fiscal policy to maintain demand. I think these are fairly straightforward and uncontroversial implications of the fact that the rates are very low. Now, the first thing I want to say is, well, is your description of the world the right one? You know, a world in which the interest rate is very low. My trip policy doesn't have a whole lot of room. I think so. That's what let me just develop that quickly. So I think, you know, we've all said many times don't trust markets. But if you look at the yield curve, we know that they're extremely flat. This is true here. We can also look at option prices to get a sense of, well, not the mean, but, you know, what some people believe. So what do you think is the probability, based on these option prices, the probability that the markets put on the very low rate three years from now being more than 1%. So here we're not talking about just the mean, we're talking about the answer is 0.3%. So, you know, you may not be convinced that there are people putting their money there. So I think we can assume, you know, it may not last forever, but I would say that we're clearly in for quite a while. So I'll take that here, just a tip to Larry. I think that when interest rates remain low initially, it was thought that maybe the financial crisis was the source of the low rates or they had decreased before. I think as time passes, it's clear that there's something else. The effects of the financial crisis are largely gone. So I think that Larry's secular stagnation hypothesis is no longer a hypothesis. It may not be there forever, but it's more. It's a fact. And I think we should take this into account. The second issue is whether there is a Euro gap. Maybe there is a need for fiscal policy at this point to basically help monetary policy. The case would be there if there is an output gap, a negative output gap. It would not be there if the economy for the Eurozone as a whole is about there. I think we can discuss at length, and that goes to the discussion of output gaps and various other strange beasts. But my sense is inflation is far from, I think, where Mario would like to see it. Maybe he will disagree. It is not, like, too, for sure. And I have the impression, looking at least at the countries at which I have looked, that there is one or 2% unemployment, which is above the structure of a likely structural unemployment rate. So my sense is, yes, there is a need for fiscal policy now. Now, that sense is clearly much stronger if there is a recession. And I would say that the last few weeks, the last few months, and the trade issues suggest to me that that surely is a possibility. If there is a recession, I think it's very clear to me that monetary policy cannot do the job alone and that fiscal policy will be needed. The third one is, as a monetary policy lost how much room of maneuver, monetary policies still have. And here, it seems to me that, again, there are many things that the ECB or other central banks can do. They can buy many more assets than they do. And we have the Bank of Japan as an example. You can increase your balance sheets enormously. But whether this will translate into much lower rates and these rates having substantial effects on activity, I think one has to be skeptical. So clearly, the ECB should try. It probably has some room to do things. But I'm not terribly optimistic that it can really, on its own, handle anything like a recession. So given this, given this environment, as I see it, let me turn to the implications for fiscal policy. First in general and then for common currency areas, such as the Eurozone. So let me start with general implications. I see three main implications. The first one is that whatever urgency there was in reducing debt, urgency is less. That's a matter of arithmetic. Whatever speed of adjustment was required, the right speed today, given the environment, is slower. So I'm not saying we should not care about that, we should. But it is clear that it's less essential to decrease that if it comes at some cost. The second implication is that if demand is too low to deliver output and potential, and again, there is a discussion as to whether that's the case today, but surely it would be the case if there is anything like a slowdown in the Eurozone. Then you have to be ready, or the Eurozone has to be ready to use fiscal deficits for cyclical. Of our cyclical, in this sense, becomes long. I mean, it may have to use primary deficits for quite a while. The case of Japan is very scary in this way, which is maybe that fiscal policy deficits have to be used for quite a while, but it's no alternative. Now, again, you may want to use other measures, and that goes back to structural reforms and kind of a repeated light motif at the fond head when I was there and still has, which is, well, you should do structural reforms. It's clear that you should do structural reforms, but the notion that they'll get you out, that they'll create such optimism as to increase demand or get you out of a recession, I think is a joke. And therefore, it should be done, but that's not enough. Fiscal, I think, is the only tool you have. The third one is if you're going to have primary deficits to maintain demand, there is no reason not to use them right, namely to actually use them to do good things to the supply side. So to the extent that there is an increase in primary deficits, it seems to me that the priority should be on financing public investment or financing reforms, not just financing current consumption. So of our, I think, main reason to do it is to boost demand. It's clear that this would be used to actually boost supply and help, potentially help growth in the future. So I think these are the three implications. What I want to do last, and then I'll be done, is basically go down not from 30,000 feet to the ground, because I don't think I could actually work there, but maybe to 10,000 feet and think about the implications for the Euro area of fiscal architecture. So these are what I see as implications of what I've said so far. So it is really a repeat of what I've said, except applied to the Eurozone. So the first one is that the various rules defining target debt, speed of adjustment to debt, should be revisited. And first, they haven't been respected. And also I think that even if they made sense at some point, they don't make sense today. And basically there should be, you know, if tightening fiscal leads to an output gap, because my trip policy cannot respond. And it seems to me that letting that not decrease or increase very slowly is probably the thing to do. Now whether this is done for a formal change in rules or just by having the authorities in charge be more lenient, we know that there is some leeway. And that's not for me to decide. But it seems to me that that signal should be sent. Not that that is irrelevant, not that that is good, but that maybe the priority should be somewhere else. The second on the use of primary deficits to do good things for the future, you probably are all aware of what fiscal austerity justified or not justified did to public investment. In the Eurozone. So since 2007, the ratio of public investment to GDP for the average for the Euro has been minus 1%. So it decreased 1% of GDP. And the numbers are very scary in the countries where it should be the reverse. So it's basically 2.3% for Greece, 2.7% for Spain, 2.3% for Portugal, 0.9% for Italy. It seems to me that that's just wrong. And therefore, if we have primary deficits, they should be used for projects like this. I think in this context, the idea of having what's known as a fiscal golden rule, which is a separation of the current account and the capital account and being more lenient again about the use of debt for the capital account is clearly something which should be introduced. I think we're all aware of the dangers of doing this. It has been introduced, it was introduced in the UK and was cheating on a large scale. But I think it can be done. Again, an anecdote here. I was in a Euro country not long ago where somebody in charge explained to me that reducing the age of retirement, making retirement earlier, was public investment. And the argument was fairly straightforward, which is that this liberated jobs for the young and the young of the future. So that's, I think, what you don't want to happen. But that can be taken care of by having some commission in Brussels, which basically puts a check mark when you come with projects. But I think in the current context, that would be important. Last two points which reflect the specificities of the common, of the Eurozone. The third one has to do with the coordination of monetary and fiscal policy. In a world which I'm thinking about, there is a need for coordination between the two. Before that, there was separate. And in the ideal scheme, it is separate. But here, fiscal policy has to come to the rescue, if I may use that expression. It is very difficult to do with 19 countries and 19 ministers of finance. So I think the argument for having somebody who would be the counterpart to Mario or to his successor, being in a position to say, yes, we need some common fiscal expansion or not, is probably more relevant today than it ever was before. And then the last one is externalities, which are very relevant. Suppose that you need expansionary fiscal policy at the Euro level. It is agreed that basically you should have a 1% increase in the fiscal deficit. How is it achieved? Well, if you let each country do what's best for itself, you will basically get an undersupply of fiscal expansion. And the reason is spillovers, the fact that when you do a fiscal expansion in your country and your small country and an open economy, basically you tend to benefit others, which is good, but you don't care about. And therefore, the question is, what can be done in this case? I think if you just, even if you say, look, have fiscal deficits, the implication is countries will probably not do enough. And so in this case, there is an argument for coordination. And I think it can be done in one of two ways. The first one is to have the countries which are able to do it have a coordinated fiscal expansion. So by able, I mean that some countries may not be able to because of their fiscal situation. And then in this first case, each country would basically issue its own debt. That's very much what happened in 2009 with the G20, basically it was a coordinated increase and it helped, is my guess. But not all countries would be part of a scheme. Then the more ambitious one, but which implies some risk sharing, is basically to have a common budget and to do it from the common budget issuing euro bonds in order to, and this would allow all countries to participate, would clearly be better from an economic point of view, but it would have some of the implications which have made that kind of risk sharing likely not happen quite yet. So let me conclude. I realize that I've offered kind of blue sky thinking, if you know the expression, basically, stuff that academics can say, but politicians face more constraint. I've realized all the complex geopolitical constraints that in the end will determine the outcome. But I still think it's the right place to start. I think it would be a waste to start by saying, should we go from 62 or something else without thinking about the bigger issues and then coming down from there? Anniversaries, and this is the 20th anniversary, are good times to assess both progress and setbacks. And we need it to actually make bold moves. I think my trip policy has done that. And so, again, congratulations. But the rest of the architecture is not quite right there. And it may not be completely smooth sailing in the future. Let me stop on this terribly optimistic note. Thank you.


Hello everybody, E here. Welcome back to another book review. Today we are talking about False Bingo by Jack Jensk. I'll put the picture over here. It was a digital ARC, so it was an ebook copy. I blew through it. I didn't blow through it. Let me stop lying. I took my time with it. I've read, I think, one or two stories a night. Some of the stories were on the longer side. If they were, you know, longer, I usually only read that one story. It took me about two weeks, two or three weeks to read. This is, like I said, I did get the copy for free from NetGalley. I enjoyed it overall. I think my least favorite story of the bunch is actually the longest story in the collection. I'm going to link down there in the doobly-doo to my review on Goodreads. You're going to get a more in-depth experience reading that review than what you're going to get here. The reasoning for that is I can't recall the names of some of the stories. I don't think that's the point. Usually the titles, though, were double entendres or they had double meeting kind of thing, where, like, Trivial Pursuit was about a couple looking for a friendship, a couple to do things with, but also it was about them, you know, their love of playing board games. So the Trivial Pursuit, the board game, a Trivial Pursuit and trying to find friends that, you know, that share the same interests as you, that kind of thing. My favorite story in the entire collection is called Don't Let's, and that's one of the stories that I want to focus on with this review, because I actually believe wholeheartedly that the entire collection is worth reading for this story alone. I'm not saying the price of admission would be worth it. I'm just saying if you're going to try this collection, the reason to try it is for the story, don't let's. Opening up, the reader asks a bunch of questions, not all of them are answered, but I think the important ones are, and it is the closest you were going to come to the type of experience that you got, if you read Jen's second novel, I believe it was, the grip of it. You're going to get the same feel there where the author is trying to install dread without too much input. There is a bit of lore in that short story that I absolutely loved. I'd never heard it before. If any of you are familiar with the lore when the book finally comes out in October, if you're familiar with the lore, if you get an ARC and you want to talk to me about it, I would love to talk to you about it because it's not something that I've heard of, so if the author created it, that's fantastic. If not, I would love to learn more about that, but that's also not the point of the story. Now, going back to the grip of it, and also want to talk about the description problem I had with this one. It says it's a collection of sinister stories, something, they used the word sinister. I did not get that from this collection. What I got from this collection was a collection of very eclectic works ranging from a darkly comic to literary, to there's a little bit of horror in Don't Let's. There are some other stories that made me feel uncomfortable, but I never found anything sinister, except for in the story Don't Let's.  This story does have tremendous writing, terrific points, very poignant pieces in here, especially the one about homeschooling, the lady in her daughter who lived off the grid was another one of my favorite stories. That's another one I can't... Now, going back to the one that I didn't like, I don't want to harp on this too much, but I can't pronounce the name of the one that I don't like. It's Mua Lawawi or something like that. I don't know. That alone is probably offensive to somebody that I can't pronounce that. But that's the only story that I didn't like. And I think it's only because I missed the point of the story. There were a couple of stories that I think were directed more towards a woman's perspective that I'm just never going to understand.  That's not something that I've ever thought in my life, but I do know that from a female's perspective, that is something that you guys have to worry about all the time. I get that. So while I don't... And there's a story in there like that which I enjoyed reading about. I just didn't... I think that's the point. If that's not the point, I fully admit I completely missed the point. And that's fine, especially with works like this. It's fine for you to say, hey, I missed the point. That's completely natural that you're not going to catch everything all the time. But I would like to talk to anybody who's read these stories about the point of some of the stories that I think I missed the point of, or that the point just didn't resonate with me. Maybe I got the point right. It just didn't resonate with me. Another thing is, if you are the type of reader who likes a beginning, middle, and end every single story you read, this probably isn't going to be for you. There's a lot of slice of life stories in here that don't go anywhere. Really, there's a point. There's a literary purpose. There's a theme. There's all that. But you're not going to get a beginning, middle, and end. Usually you drop you right in the middle of something and then alludes to an ending is what most of these stories do. Again, if I'm wrong, I'd love to talk to you guys about that. But my favorite story in the collection is Don't Let's. It was a fantastic dive into some of the scenery that I see around myself all the time, even though it's not the same scenery. It is a southern atmosphere. And I appreciated the lore in that story. There are several fantastic stories in here. And if you want to see more about what I liked and what I didn't like, you can click on the link down there. It'll say, Goodreads Review, and I will link you to that review. But until next time, I have been E, you have been U. This has been another book review. I'll talk to you guys later. Bye-bye!


Ladies and gentlemen, please rise for the arrival of the official party and remain standing for the National Anthem and the invocation. Officer Training Command, Newport, arriving. Commander, Naval Service Force, arriving. Ladies and gentlemen, Chaplain Butts will now offer the invocation. Let us pray. Eternal Father, you have fashioned and created us as a people and called us as a nation to a place of trust and leadership in the world. We honor this day our newest naval officers and we ask for your special blessing upon them as they embark on their journey into the fleet. Father, today our hearts rejoice and the day these graduates have dreamed of has finally arrived. So many are proud of their achievements. However, we are mindful that our achievements are possible only through the life you have given us, through the parents who have loved and nourished us, through the host of peers and friends along life's way who encouraged us, and those here at Officer Training Command who guided and molded each life, developing them into our nation's newest naval leaders. No one person is an island and none are perfect and each is a witness to your watchful care and forgiving grace. With every accomplishment and privilege came added responsibility and each one of these officers stands here today accepting of the duty that our nation has entrusted to them. Bless all who've stood by these we honor and give them an extra portion of your love. Watch over and protect them as they head off to their new commands. Today they stand on the shoulders of the greatest naval leaders of history who've inspired generations to fight for the freedoms that make our country great. Give them the strength and courage to carry on that legacy. Be with us today and forever. Amen. Ladies and gentlemen, please be seated. Ladies and gentlemen, Captain Mark Heisenberg, Officer Training Command, Newport. Distinguished guests, OTC and staff, family members and friends who are joining us both in person and virtually, and most importantly, soon to be commissioned officers of Class 01, TAC 22. Good morning. I am excited to welcome 70 newest ensigns into one of the most prestigious, challenging and rewarding careers in our nation, that of a naval officer. To family and friends joining us, I applaud you for the great work you have done preparing these impressive young leaders prior to their arrival here. Thank you for the support you have given them. It has enabled them to make the sound choices they have made and we are grateful to these graduates for their choice to serve. We are grateful to you for your continued support. To the graduates, as commanding officer of Officer Training Command, I am proud of all of you. You all had many other options in volunteering to serve your country, yet you chose this path. I thank you for your patriotism and your willingness to serve. I can assure you that a life of service holds many rewards and will bring you great fulfillment. You completed rigorous military, academic and physical training. You overcame obstacles. Nothing was handed to you these past 13 weeks except opportunity. The opportunity to make something more of yourself, to learn, to grow and to lead. And you seized that opportunity. You embraced it and today you reap its rewards. I congratulate each and every one of you for that significant and memorable achievement. It is now time to embrace a new opportunity, to lead sailors in the fleet. In the years ahead, your knowledge and leadership skills will be tested often. You will be standing watch and working alongside fellow officers and sailors around the world and around the clock. Know that you are going to be doing significant and meaningful work for our country. The nation and the Navy expect the best from you. The highest standards of personal and professional conduct. Excellence in leadership and its strict adherence to the Navy's core values of honor, courage and commitment. I urge you to continue to uphold the highest standards of excellence and integrity. Character matters. As writer George Elliott once said, character is destiny. Your choices in life will determine where you end up. Work hard. Learn the warfare and professional skills of your designator. Strive to be the best and give your country your best efforts because nothing else will suffice. In closing, I applaud your accomplishments and perseverance. Each of you are about to embark upon a great adventure, an adventure in which I hope you find both professional success and personal fulfillment.  And regardless of how long you serve our nation, it will most assuredly be a time in your life in which you will look back with much pride and satisfaction. Congratulations to each and every one of you. I wish you fair wins and followings. It is my honor and privilege this morning to introduce to you our guest speaker, Vice Admiral Roy Ketchner, Commander Naval Service Forces, U.S. Pacific Fleet. A native of Trumbull, Connecticut, he is a graduate of Unity College with a Bachelor of Arts in Political Science and earned his commission through the Navy's Officer Candidate School in 1985. He also attended the Naval Postgraduate School where he specialized in Western Hemisphere Studies and earned a Masters of Arts in National Security Affairs. As a surface warfare officer, he has had numerous at sea duty deployed around the world and commanded the U.S.S. John Paul Jones, the U.S.S. Higgins, and U.S.S. Princeton, and Expeditionary Strike Group 2. Vice Admiral Ketchner has served on numerous shore-based staffs and most recently served as Commander Naval Service Forces' U.S. Atlantic Fleet. Vice Admiral Ketchner assumed the duties as Commander Naval Service Forces, specifically on August 3, 2020. His leadership is absolutely essential to the continued success of the world's greatest Navy and we are truly fortunate to have him here with us today to share some thoughts with the Navy's 70 newest ensigns. Ladies and gentlemen, please join me in welcoming our guest of honor today, Vice Admiral Roy Ketchner. Well, thanks, Captain Haysenberg, and good morning, Officer Training Command, staff, veterans, family, friends, and soon-to-be ensigns. First, I'd like to recognize the class officers, class chief petty officers, academics instructors, and drill instructors. Your collective guidance and mentorship is paramount to the professional development of thousands of candidates who come through these doors each day. Thank you for your commitment to excellence. How about a round of applause for all that support of them? And how about a round of applause for these officer candidates? It's always an honor for me to speak at these commissioning ceremonies, but on this occasion, I take great personal interest in the message I bring to all of you today. I recognize as time passes in your lives and careers, the words that I offer will fade, but the underpinned value of today's message should resonate with all of you in this room today. As you set out on what will be probably the most professionally challenging, personally rewarding, and ever more critical to the security of our shared American values. You see, 36 years ago, I stood in your shoes as an officer candidate, having completed 12 challenging weeks of training. I confirmed that when I talked to one of your road guards out there. He was ready to sit in your seat today. Like many of you, I was eager for challenge and excited to offer my utmost in return. Like all of you, I was not entirely sure of what really lie ahead of me. I can tell you that I have experienced and endured far more than I ever expected. OCS, Officer Candidate School, set me on an exciting and rewarding path, having instilled in me many of the professional character traits demanded by our service. The lessons I learned here were critical to the success of the sailors I've had the privilege and the responsibility of leading throughout my career, many of whom themselves pursued commission through this program.  It is the most rewarding and exasperating aspect of our work. But leading sailors is what we do. Embrace this opportunity. Recall and apply the lessons we've learned that you've learned throughout your life and over the last 12 weeks. Believe in your ability. Be flexible in adaptation and continue to learn, regardless of your rank or position. Trust me, I learn something new every day. As naval officers, it doesn't matter where you came from or how you grew up and even less your commissioning source. What does matter is that the moment you take the oath, the weight of commission is not only immense, but it is binding. You will be expected to execute the responsibilities and authorities of this commission during the best of times and, more importantly, during the worst of times. Remember, mission first, sailors always. Regardless of the community to which you are about to enter, you must master your craft and consistently work to have an innate understanding of our Navy and its mission. Every one of us, every one of us play a role in supporting and accomplishing the mission. You, all of you, are responsible for connecting our sailors to that mission and motivating others to action in support of it. The Navy I joined is dramatically different than the one I serve in today. Quite frankly, today it's a much better Navy. And each of you are expected to drive change as we develop new technologies and tactics, expand into new operational theaters, and professionalize our Navy at a pace not experienced in decades. We employ revolutionary war fighting systems. We are developing new ships and aircraft designed to counter-evolving threats and deliver decisive combat power swiftly and precisely wherever and whenever we choose. But make no mistake, these systems are unserviceable without competent, dedicated, and strong leaders at the helm. This next generation of leaders stands in front of me today. You must learn to employ these tools in a fight we cannot lose, all the while creating calmness from the chaos of battle to enable our decisive advantage, which is the sailors that you will lead. Yeah, you ought to also be a compassionate and a strategic leader, a leader who understands how to measure tactical risk and when circumstances dictate, restrain these deadly capabilities, we entrust to your ability. Admiral Arlie Burke said in 1961, in this modern world the instruments of warfare are not solely for waging war, far more importantly they are the means for controlling peace. Naval officers must therefore understand not only how to fight a war, but how to use the tremendous power which they operate to sustain a world of liberty and justice without unleashing the powerful instruments of destruction and chaos. That they have at their command. These words spoken 60 years ago bring truer today than ever before. Be strong, be steady, be humble. In closing, and speaking from personal experience, it's doubtful that you will remember anything I said today. But remember these words from Admiral Halsey. There are no extraordinary people, just extraordinary circumstances that ordinary people are forced to deal with. It's up to all of you to be bold enough to use those extraordinary circumstances to bring about the extraordinary talent in those you lead and to find victory in the trials you will all face together. Finally, every organization these days, throughout history, has kind of a cool and meaningful Latin phrase. For all of you officer candidates, I offer non-ducor ducor. I am not led, I lead. Good luck and God bless. Before we all embark on some well-deserved leave and liberty following this ceremony, it is my honor and my pleasure to now lead you in the Oath of Office as you begin or continue your service in the world's most powerful Navy. The graduating class will now receive the Oath of Office. Would all military personnel in uniform please come to the position of attention. Class 01, Tack 22, raise your right hand. I, state your name, having been appointed an ensign in the United States Navy, do hereby accept such appointment and do solemnly swear that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States, that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same, that I take this obligation freely, without mental reservation or purpose of evasion, and that I will well and faithfully discharge the duties of the office I am about to enter. So help me God. Ladies and gentlemen, please be seated. The graduates assembled will now be recognized by the commanding officer for their achievements while undergoing training here at Officer Training Command, Newport. Ensign Butel has been designated a service warfare officer and will be assigned to DDG-93 Chung Hoon in Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. Ensign Butel is a graduate of Virginia Commonwealth University. Ensign Sturpey has been designated a student naval aviator and will be assigned to Naval Instructory Flight Evaluation in Pensacola, Florida. Ensign Sturpey is a graduate of the State University of New York at Brockport. Ensign Alomar Alonzo has been designated a Cryptological Warfare Officer and will be assigned to National Security Agency Central Security Service in Fort Meade, Maryland. Ensign Alomar Alonzo is a graduate of the University of Puerto Rico at Beaumont. Ensign Austin has been designated a surface warfare officer and will be assigned to LPD-28 Fort Lauderdale in Hampton Roads, Virginia. Ensign Austin is a distinguished naval graduate and a graduate of the College of William & Mary. Ensign Castle has been designated a student naval aviator and will be assigned to Naval Instructory Flight Evaluation in Pensacola, Florida. Ensign Castle has been awarded the Commander Jack Levitt Leadership Award presented to the candidate chosen by their peers who most inspired her class and personifies the highest standards of personal example, sound management practice, and moral responsibility. Ensign Castle is a distinguished naval graduate and a graduate of Embry-Riddle Aeronautica University. Ensign Jones has been designated a service warfare officer and will be assigned to DDG-97 Halsey in San Diego, California. Ensign Jones is a graduate of Thomas Edison State University. Ensign Cook has been designated a service warfare officer and will be assigned to LPD-21 New York in Hampton Roads, Virginia. Ensign Cook is a graduate of Tuskegee University. Ensign Kitchener has been designated a service warfare officer nuclear and will be assigned to DDG-60 Paul Hamilton in San Diego, California. Ensign Kitchener is a graduate of Oregon State University. Ensign Bowdoin Shots has been designated a naval flight officer and will be assigned to Naval Instructory Flight Evaluation in Pensacola, Florida. Ensign Bowdoin Shots is a graduate of the University of Cincinnati. Ensign Vargas has been designated a service warfare officer and will be assigned to CG-69 Vicksburg in Hampton Roads, Virginia. Ensign Vargas is a graduate of St. Leo University. Ensign Menchow has been designated a civil engineering corps officer and will be assigned to Naval Mobile Construction Battalion 5 in Port Waineme, California. Ensign Menchow is a graduate of Southern Illinois University, Edwardsville. Ensign Brajava has been designated a submarine warfare officer and will be assigned to Naval Nuclear Power Training Command in Charleston, South Carolina. Ensign Brajava is a graduate of Texas Tech University. Ensign Brown has been designated a naval flight officer and will be assigned to Naval Instructory Flight Evaluation in Pensacola, Florida. Ensign Brown is a graduate of Texas Tech University. Ensign Bowdoin has been designated a service warfare officer, Nuclear, will be assigned to DDG-95 James E. Williams in Norfolk, Virginia. Ensign Bowdoin is a graduate of Northern Illinois University. Ensign Cable has been designated a submarine warfare officer, will be assigned to Naval Nuclear Power Training Command in Charleston, South Carolina. Ensign Cable is a graduate of the University of Washington. Ensign Claflin has been designated a student naval aviator, will be assigned to Naval Instructory Flight Evaluation in Pensacola, Florida. Ensign Claflin is a graduate of The Ohio State University. Ensign Coates has been designated a submarine warfare officer, will be assigned to Naval Nuclear Power Training Command in Charleston, South Carolina. Ensign Coates is a graduate of the University of Oklahoma. Ensign Dawn has been designated a student naval aviator, will be assigned to Naval Instructory Flight Evaluation in Pensacola, Florida. Ensign Dawn is a graduate of Penn State University. Ensign Dean has been designated an information professional officer, will be assigned to Information Warfare Training Command in Virginia Beach, Virginia. Ensign Dean is a graduate of Syracuse University. Ensign Demas has been designated a civil engineering corps officer, has been assigned to Naval Mobile Construction Battalion 1 in Gulfport, Mississippi. Ensign Demas is a graduate of the University of Southern California. Ensign Donaldson has been designated a Cryptological Warfare Officer, will be assigned to Navy Information Operations Command Joint Base Pearl Harbor Hickam, Hawaii. Ensign Donaldson is a distinguished naval graduate and a graduate of Colgate University. Ensign Fusco has been designated a Cryptological Warfare Officer, will be assigned to National Security Agency, Central Security Service in Fort Mead, Maryland. Ensign Fusco is a graduate of the College of the Holy Cross. Ensign Gados has been designated a student naval aviator, will be assigned to Naval Instructory Flight Evaluation in Pensacola, Florida. Ensign Gados is a graduate of Robert Morris University. Ensign Gros has been designated a student naval aviator, will be assigned to Naval Instructory Flight Evaluation in Pensacola, Florida. Ensign Gros is a graduate of the University of South Florida. Ensign Hawkins has been designated a student naval aviator, will be assigned to Naval Instructory Flight Evaluation in Pensacola, Florida. Ensign Hawkins is a graduate of Middle Georgia State University. Ensign Hazard has been designated a naval flight officer, will be assigned to Naval Instructory Flight Evaluation in Pensacola, Florida. Ensign Hazard is a graduate of the University of Nebraska. Anson Hearns has been designated as student naval aviator, be assigned to Naval Instructory Flight Evaluation in Pensacola, Florida. Anson Hearns is a graduate of Trinity College University of Dublin. Anson Hernandez has been designated as student naval aviator, be assigned to Naval Instructory Flight Evaluation in Pensacola, Florida. Anson Hernandez is a graduate of St. Leo University. Anson Haas-Dettler has been designated as submarine warfare officer, be assigned to Naval Nuclear Power Training Command in Charleston, South Carolina. Anson Haas-Dettler is a distinguished naval graduate and a graduate of Arizona State University. Anson James has been designated as student naval aviator, be assigned to Naval Instructory Flight Evaluation in Pensacola, Florida. Anson James is a graduate of Miami University. Anson Harige has been designated a civil engineering corps officer and be assigned to Public Works Department in Great Lake, Chicago. Anson Harige is a graduate of the University of Illinois at Chicago. Anson Johnson has been designated a service warfare officer, be assigned to LHD-1, WASP, in Hampton Roads, Virginia. Anson Johnson is a graduate of Columbia University. Anson Kamara has been designated a service warfare officer, be assigned to CG-59 Princeton in San Diego, California. Anson Kamara is a graduate of Medgar Evers College. Anson Kern has been designated a naval flight officer, be assigned to Naval Instructory Flight Evaluation in Pensacola, Florida. Anson Kern is a graduate of Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University. Anson Kesner has been designated a student naval aviator, be assigned to Naval Instructory Flight Evaluation in Pensacola, Florida. Anson Kesner is a graduate of the University of Cincinnati. Anson Kobashi Gawa has been designated an information professional officer, be assigned to Information Warfare Training Command in Virginia Beach, Virginia. Anson Kobashi Gawa is a distinguished naval graduate and a graduate of the University of Hawaii. Anson Khan has been designated a student naval aviator and will be assigned to Naval Instructory Flight Evaluation in Pensacola, Florida. Anson Khan is a graduate of Clemson University. Anson Langham has been designated a service warfare officer, will be assigned to LHD-5 Baton in Hampton Roads, Virginia. Anson Langham is a graduate of Old Dominion University. Anson Lay has been designated a submarine warfare officer, will be assigned to Naval Nuclear Power Training Command in Charleston, South Carolina. Anson Lay is a graduate of the New Jersey Institute of Technology. Anson Mogales has been designated a supply corps officer, will be assigned to Naval Supply School in Newport, Rhode Island. Anson Mogales is a graduate of the University of South Carolina. Anson Marshman has been designated a student naval aviator, will be assigned to Naval Instructory Flight Evaluation in Pensacola, Florida. Anson Marshman is a graduate of the University of Central Florida. Anson Marchinsky has been designated a naval flight officer, will be assigned to Naval Instructory Flight Evaluation in Pensacola, Florida. Anson Marchinsky is a graduate of Montana State University. Anson Matthews has been designated a naval flight officer, will be assigned to Naval Instructory Flight Evaluation in Pensacola, Florida. Anson Matthews is a graduate of Northern Illinois University. Anson McCloskey has been designated a student naval aviator. Will be assigned to Naval Instructory Flight Evaluation in Pensacola, Florida. Anson McCloskey is a graduate Kent State University. Instant McDougal has been designated as Student Naval Flight Officer. We assign to Naval Instructory Flight Evaluation in Pensacola, Florida. Instant McDougal is a graduate of the University of Mississippi. Instant Medina has been designated as Service Warfare Officer. We assign to LSD-52 Pearl Harbor in San Diego, California. Instant Medina is a graduate of California State University Long Beach. Instant Meffert has been designated as Student Naval Aviator. We'll be assigned to Naval Instructory Flight Evaluation in Pensacola, Florida. Instant Meffert is a graduate of the University of Akron. Instant Milson has been designated a Student Naval Aviator and we assign to Naval Instructory Flight Evaluation in Pensacola, Florida. Instant Milson has been awarded the Lieutenant Thomas E.D. Honor Award for obtaining the highest average for academics, military training, and physical fitness at Officer Candidate School in honor of Lieutenant Thomas E.D. United States Navy Congressional Medal of Honor Awardee. Instant Milson is a distinguished Naval graduate and a graduate of the University of North Carolina, Wilmington. Instant Montalvo has been designated as Service Warfare Officer. We'll be assigned to DDG-76 Higgins in Yacuzco, Japan. Instant Montalvo is a graduate of Texas A&M University. Instant Narlok has been designated as Special Warfare Officer. We'll be assigned to Naval Special Warfare Center in San Diego, California. Instant Narlok is a graduate of Georgetown University. Instant Newton has been designated as Student Naval Aviator. We'll be assigned to Naval Instructory Flight Evaluation in Pensacola, Florida. Instant Newton is a graduate of Brandman University. Instant Prada has been designated as Civil Engineering Corps Officer. We'll be assigned to Public Works Department, Indian Head, Maryland. Instant Prada has been awarded the Chapel Clarity United States Marine Corps Physical Fitness Award for obtaining the highest overall grade in physical fitness while attending Officer Candidate School. Instant Prada is a distinguished Naval graduate and a graduate of Stephen F. Austin State University. Instant Paul has been designated as Student Naval Aviator. We'll be assigned to Naval Instructory Flight Evaluation in Pensacola, Florida. Instant Paul is a graduate of the College of the Holy Cross. Instant Pierce has been designated as Student Naval Aviator. We'll be assigned to Naval Instructory Flight Evaluation in Pensacola, Florida. Instant Pierce is a graduate of Auburn University. Instant Pizaro has been designated as Student Naval Aviator. We'll be assigned to Naval Instructory Flight Evaluation in Pensacola, Florida. Instant Pizaro is a graduate of California State University, Monterey Bay. Instant Kwan has been designated the submarine warfare officer. We'll be assigned to Naval Nuclear Power Training Command in Charleston, South Carolina. Instant Kwan is a graduate of the University of Tulsa. Vincent Quijano has been designated as submarine warfare officer. He'll be assigned to Naval Nuclear Power Training Command in Charleston, South Carolina. Vincent Quijano is a graduate of the University of California, Irvine. Vincent Romano has been designated a Cryptological Warfare Officer. He'll be assigned to National Security Agency, Central Security Service in Fort Mean, Maryland. Vincent Romano has been awarded the Rear Admiral Stephen B. Loose Academics Award for obtaining the highest average in academics while attending officer candidate school. Vincent Romano is a graduate of the University of Texas at Austin. Vincent Roe has been designated as Supply Corps Officer. He'll be assigned to Naval Supply School in Newport, Rhode Island. Vincent Roe is a graduate of Bethune-Cookman University. Vincent Shaining has been designated as Submarine Warfare Officer. He'll be assigned to Naval Nuclear Power Training Command in Charleston, South Carolina. Vincent Shaining is a graduate of Oregon State University. Vincent Scambati has been designated an Intelligence Officer. He'll be assigned to Information Warfare Training Command in Virginia Beach, Virginia. Vincent Scambati is a graduate of Coastal Carolina University. Vincent Sheehan has been designated as Service Warfare Officer. He'll be assigned to DDG 72 Mahan in Hampton Roads, Virginia. Vincent Sheehan is a graduate of Simpson College. Vincent Sanafeld has been designated a Student Naval Aviator. He'll be assigned to Naval Instructory Flight Evaluation in Pensacola, Florida. Vincent Sanafeld is a graduate of The Ohio State University. Vincent Spidel has been designated a Student Naval Aviator. He'll be assigned to Naval Instructory Flight Evaluation in Pensacola, Florida. Vincent Spidel is a graduate of the University of South Alabama. Anson Tuxbury has been designated Rose Warfrey Officer to be assigned to DDG-56 John S McCain in Everett, Washington. Anson Tuxbury is a graduate of Liberty University. Anson Breitman has been designated Student Naval Aviator and will be assigned to Naval Instructure Flight Evaluation in Pensacola, Florida. Anson Breitman is graduate of Old Dominion University. Anson Walston has been designated a Student Naval Aviator and will be assigned to Naval Instructure Flight Evaluation in Pensacola, Florida. Anson Walston is a graduate of the Ohio State University. Anson Wolfram has been designated as Service Warfare Officer. We assigned to DDG59 Russell in San Diego, California. Anson Wolfram is a graduate of Post University. Anson Youngblood has been designated as Submarine Warfare Officer. We assigned to Naval Nuclear Power Training Command in Charleston, South Carolina. Anson Youngblood is a graduate of Auburn University. Anson Walker has been designated as Submarine Warfare Officer. We assigned to Naval Nuclear Power Training Command in Charleston, South Carolina. Anson Walker is a graduate of the University of Nevada, Reno. Ladies and gentlemen, please join me in recognizing the United States Navy's newest ensigns. We will now conclude the ceremony. Ladies and gentlemen, please rise for the playing of the service songs and the final dismissal. Please remain in your places until after the graduating class has taken their class photo. On behalf of the commanding officer, officer training command new port, thank you for attending today's ceremony. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the graduation ceremony. Please remember the only authorized visitor locations are Nimitz Field and Cahall.