Hey, this is Brett and this 2016 Dodge Challenger Hellcat is stock number 13887Z. I'm here at Summit Automotive in Fond du Lac, Wisconsin, your new and used Dodge Challenger and sports car headquarters. This 2016 Dodge Challenger Hellcat has the 6.2 liter supercharged V8 engine. It puts out 707 horsepower when paired with the red key. This one has the automatic transmission. This car has been fully safety and inspected by our service shop for the state of Wisconsin inspection process. Has a fresh oil and filter change. All the fluids have been checked and topped off and this car is 100% ready to go. I'm going to go all the way around in this video. Inside, start it up, take a look under the hood and give you the most accurate representation that I can of the car. B5 Blue Metallic is the color. Shoot all my videos in 4K and if you like the video, you can subscribe to my YouTube channel which is youtube.com slash summit auto click the bell notifications you'll get updates on the videos I do each and every day as well as having access to one of the largest catalogs of vehicle walk-arounds on YouTube. This one comes with the 20 inch brass monkey wheels. They are in fantastic condition. Of course, you get the Brembo brakes on there with the slotted rotors. This one comes with Firestone Firehawk Indy 500 tires, they're 27540R20s. I would say they have probably about 60 to 70% of the tread left in the front here. Front fender is in really nice condition. This one does have a 3M or a plastic wrap on the front of it. So that goes to the end of the fender there and it's also wrapped on the front bumper. That front bumper and lower valance are in really nice shape. I didn't see any drill holes in the front bumper, I didn't see any major scuffs or scrapes on there either. You get the halo running lights, the HID headlamps, we'll turn all those on at the end of the video so you can see how nice and bright they are. This one comes with the black hood. You get the covell induction in the middle and then the two heat extractors on the outside. My favorite looking hood on the Challengers. As you go down this side of the car, front fender looks really good. I didn't see any dents or dings in this passenger side front wheel. No major scuffs or scrapes. B5 blue metallic, really rare to see these Hellcats in this color. Do not see too many of them. In fact, this might be one of my first ones I've ever videoed. As you go down this side of the car though, see just how nice that body is, how reflective and mirror like that paint is. But I do really like the B5 blue, it's got a lot of metal flake to it. When I take these HD videos, so if you are far away or even if you're close by and you just cannot make the trip down but you're still interested in purchasing the car, you can see the car, hear the car and have confidence in the vehicle that you're looking at before you even get here. So when you do get here, there's absolutely no surprises and you can make a smart and informed buying decision from wherever you're at. If this video helps you make that buying decision, let your salesmen know that you saw the video that was helpful and that brought sense to you. Back wheel is in excellent shape and the back tires have just as much tread as those front tires. Frame and underbody is in really nice clean condition, from what you can see. Coming around the back of the vehicle, rear bumper is in great shape, it does have the backup parking sensors, the dual rear exhaust, rear bumper is in fantastic condition.  That trunk area is in very nice clean condition and those shocks are doing a nice job holding that hood up. You get the Harman Kardon factory subwoofers, a tire and flater kit and that's where your battery is located as well. Shuts nice and solidly, that trunk lid is in great shape and going down the driver's side just as clean as that passenger's side, I didn't see any major dents or dings. Looks really good and for full disclosure, this back wheel is in great shape as well. Coming around the rest of the side of the car, the doors, or the door looks good, has the heated power mirrors, blind spot monitoring, they have that wrap on the mirror as well.  Get the SRT stitched into the backrest. No rips or tears on the seats. Power driver seat with lumbar, factory SRT floor mats, bright pedals, auto headlamps, power telescopic and tilt steering wheel. Harman Kardon sound of course, power windows locks and mirrors, you get these suede inserts on the doors and you get the Hellcat logo underneath the door, which looks really good. Back seats are just as clean as the front seats, you get the red seat belts as well.  We'll hop inside, check out the miles, the radio and everything that this car has to offer on the interior. See that this one has 26,518 miles, I honestly can't believe it's that many miles. This car is really clean for those miles, a digital speedometer on that seven inch LCD display, instrument cluster is very nice and clean, comes with the leather wrap steering wheel. Cruise controls on the right, Bluetooth and information center controls on the left, you do get the pedal shifters on the back of the steering wheel and the audio controls on the back of the steering wheel as well. This one has the 8.4 3C radio, note that you get the machine finished dash and center console trim on here. You have all your more tactile volume tune and climate controls down here, including launch control, SRT and stability control. Here you get AM, FM and Sirius XM radio capabilities, you also get your heated and cooled seat buttons as well as your heated steering wheel controls, get all your different apps on here, including the performance pages and they do take a second to load sometimes. There is your factory navigation system, there's highway 41, so that is working nicely, you always want to make sure that these nav systems are working on these radios, especially in the challengers, they have been known to fail, but this one's working great and then you get your performance pages, they do take a second to load as well, in fact it's loading right now. It has the keyless entry with remote start and that's a nice shape, your 8 speed automatic transmission and the passenger side format and seat are in fantastic condition as well, I don't think this car has ever been smoked in, smells very clean inside and the headliner is in great shape, does have the power sunroof, map lights, home link buttons for your garage door security systems and lighting systems, sunroof controls and 911 n-assist buttons in the mirror, here are your performance pages, you have your timers, your gauges, I'll show you the gauges first, so you get all those, your g-force and then you also get your engine, what it's doing and of course it's off right now so it's not going to do anything, then your timers, they do take a second to load and while they're loading I'm going to start the car up and then we'll listen to that exhaust and check out the lights and we'll also take a look under the hood, other your timers right there, alright let's start it up, starts right up, no check engine lights or anything like that, we will be putting some fuel in this car right after this video, love those LED tail lamps, really like the sound of the Hellcats, they sound really good, you can actually feel the air pumping on those Hellcats, it's pretty crazy, there are those HID headlamps, the LED running lights, I would personally like to thank you for checking out the video today and hopefully from this HD video you've been able to verify the quality condition options and of course the funliness of this car, all the way around inside out under the hood we have an extremely clean engine bay, engine runs really smooth, once again this car has been fully safe and inspected by our service shop, has a fresh oil and filter change, all the fluids have been checked and topped off and it is 100% ready to go, there is the emissions sticker, shocks are doing a nice job pulling that hood up and I would highly recommend this car from a quality and condition standpoint, I would ship this one anywhere, California, Texas, New York, Florida, whoever is going to get this car is going to be very happy with the quality and condition on it, especially for the miles on the car and to see more pictures of this car, one of other 550 new news car trucks, SUVs, minivans, Wranglers, Challengers, Chargers, Mustangs, Corvettes, Camaros, ZO6s, Hellcats, GT500, you name it, we got to go to that website right there, summitauto.com, full pictures and descriptions of every single vehicle all at summitauto.com and if you'd like to check out more HD videos you can go to youtube.com slash summit auto click the bell notifications, you'll get updates on videos I do each and every day as well as having access to one of the largest catalogs of vehicle and sports car walk-arounds on YouTube, 8,000 videos and counting in fact in a second we'll see a link to subscribe to my YouTube channel in the upper left, a link to more challenger videos that I've done in the upper right link to this vehicle on our website in lower left and a link to one of our latest YouTube videos in the lower right, click those, check us out, we're super excited to help you with this ultra clean 2016 Dodge Challenger Hellcat in B5 Lumetal, thanks again for checking out the video remember to like subscribe and share on the YouTube channel I really appreciate it thanks again


Global water withdrawal and consumption has increased significantly over the past four decades due to population growth and economic development. This study combines a global water demand model with a global hydrological model to analyze the effects of this growth on water resources. The results indicate that surface water and groundwater withdrawals have increased globally, with a greater increase in groundwater withdrawals since the 1990s. Additionally, the study shows that human activity has had a significant effect on terrestrial water storage, particularly in heavily regulated basins like the Colorado River and the Columbia River. This article was authored by Waewata, D. Wisser, and M. F. P. Birkins.


Good very good. So so we have other najam up on the screen and What we have so far this morning is sort of a very nice tour of the landscape from a professor Pramachalani a very nice tour of the landscape from a professor Pramachalani We might need you to mute your computer for a second at them if you would Okay, I'm going to skip the whole introduction part and just hand it straight over to Adi the najam Who's going to try and take us into a discussion of how we move forward Hear me now. Can someone give me an indication maybe on the message? I have turned my Livestream off Can people hear me there? Very good. Excellent. Thank you very much for having me. It is a great pleasure to be with you And this is an organization that I have The highest and utmost respect for and I think the topic that you have chosen for today and Talking about in the South Asian context is about as timely As it possibly can be I Really do wish that I was there Myself with you to be there live with you and unfortunately That was not possible, but luckily While we still live in the world of borders Technology is one of the things that helps us break those borders. So very much in the theme I am very glad that technology has come to our assistance I want to use my few minutes to essentially make three points I'm usually a powerpoint or a slide person, but luckily By not being there. I'm I'm I will resist the temptation to put those and I'll make three big points people before me Both the speakers have made excellent points on both the larger end and The practical end of doing something about climate change, but I want to make three points, which I think are central central to The future of South Asia as it relates to climate change and they are central to the work of MSF They are central to the type of work that doctors without borders does and really central to the type of work that I think many people in this room do So they're three parts the first of the points that I want to make is a Very clear sense has to really emerge that we are now as of today As of May 27th and before that now living in the age of adaptation Now this may seem a trivial matter, but it's not because frankly I think the culprit here are people who work on climate change and many of us Unfortunately are still talking about as if the age of adaptation is something in the future No, it is not the age of adaptation is here. It is here today It is happening now. What does that mean? What that means is that we have generally in the past talked about climate change as if it was something that would happen in the future because we were living in the age of mitigation and You all know the difference between mitigation and adaptation But the central premise of the old age was that if we are wise enough if we do something about climate change We will somehow be able to avoid climate change or minimize climate change That is no longer true because of the callousness of our species because of the consumptive sins Not just of the rich countries, but of rich people you and me In developing countries, we are now living in a place where we have condemned not just future but current generations To live in the age of adaptation, which means that we will have to adapt to climate change Now, of course that doesn't mean that mitigation has evaporated that doesn't mean mitigation is no longer important mitigation is very important But simply because if we don't mitigate the amount of adaptation needed will be even more So yes mitigation is important to reduce future impact But now we are condemned to live with impact now This has very serious Serious implications that I will come to but let me give you a very very simple Simple example with two facts before I go to my second point and the first of this is that Mr. Donald Trump? Aside and and and other skeptics aside this myth and this lie that we need to do more science For climate change because we need to know more about it before we act is absolute nonsense Yes, we need to do more science to figure out how to do it better. Yes We need to do more science how to find better solutions. Yes We need to do more science because more science is always good But no we do not need to do more science simply to find out whether this is real or not Here is my artifact, which I would have put up on the screen if I had the ability But let me give you the numbers between 1991 and 2012 note these numbers carefully 1991 to 2012 13,950 13,950 scholarly papers were written in peer-reviewed journals on climate change 13,950 and of those 13,950 papers only 24 in Any way rejected the idea of climate change? Please tell me what other scientific concept has greater scientific unanimity Then 13,950 papers only 24 of which question the idea in any matter So let us put that whole nonsense aside The second important point is that tells us that we are living in the age of climate impact We are living in the age of adaptation is that if any one of you in this room is 32 years of younger I can't see you but I would still like you to raise your hands if you are 32 years or younger If you are 32 years or younger You have never in your life Never in your entire life. You have never ever witnessed a year That was cooler than average And my Instinct tells me you're not going to do that in a fairly long time That is the extent of the reality of climate change. So this is not something in the future This is something that is probably already impacting your work. Whether you recognize it or not Certainly it is impacting the world work of doctors without water. So that is point one point two is in the age of adaptation the in the age of climate impacts the key metric of how we talk about climate change changes in The old age of mitigation which hasn't ended that's still continuing as I said But now we are in this in this new formulation of adaptation being added to it as long as we were talking only about Mitigation the way to talk about climate change was essentially to talk about car Because mitigation was really about carbon management. That is all it was about how to manage Carbon so that we can we can we can reduce Future impacts and that is all that was to it as long as we were talking carbon. We were really only talking energy Because that was the primary culprit Therefore the entire focus of the climate debate was on carbon management Therefore the entire focus of the climate debate was on energy management That is why you hear about Tesla's and you hear about cars and you hear about renewable energy and you hear about oil prices All of that is important. However however The real focus of climate change in the age of adaptation has moved in the periodic table. It has moved from carbon To hydrogen and oxygen and what I mean by that is that we are now living in a place and a time Where we are and will be defining climate change mostly mostly through the lens of water Climate is no longer only carbon defined Climate is going to be more and more defined by issues of water and that is where I think it will hit your real lives as Individuals and as professionals in the humanitarian and development fields What do I mean? Think about think for a moment about the major impacts of climate change Particularly in South Asia, whether it is Pakistan whether it's India whether it is Nepal whether it's the town whether it is Bangladesh Whether it is Sri Lanka But anywhere in the world whether it is Africa Think about war-torn areas and think about where does climate change actually impact the lives of people and I bet you that most of the answer you will find will no longer be about carbon They will be about water Think about this. So what is climate impact? What are the most likely climate impacts? They are about water melting glaciers They are about water disappearing Drought They are about water rising sea level rise They are about water falling from the sky like no one's business extreme events So climate where it meets real people in real impacts really turns into issues of water And that I think is where in your practice world Climate starts impacting how we live what we do How we do it my country Pakistan for example has now been for nearly eight years in a constant state of floods and A constant state of drought and a constant state of heat waves Now no one is suggesting this is simply because of climate change That's not how the fingerprint on the trigger works. What climate does is it exacerbates Regular processes, but then Creates a new normal and I believe all across South South Asia There is a new normal that is water defined that is sometimes water scarcity defined that is very often Water intensity defined, but that is everywhere Exacerbated by the forces of climate climate change and is everywhere showing itself in the lives of real people In the form of water. So that is the thing to take care of finally and I hope I'm not not not overstepping my time here finally my last point and This is is is a sad point, but it is a real point It is a point that MSF knows very well the poor shall pay the poor always do That's unfair, but that's the world we live in that's the world we need to change But I don't think we're going to change it very soon. So let's at least realize the reality That here is an issue that is exacerbated by the equity issue is very very important It is exacerbated not just by rich country poor country, but by rich people poor people by this by this great Differential not just in consumption, but in the footprint That you and I leave on planet Earth Which is far more dangerous and which has real impact on the lives of the poorest people who do not Leave that footprint and and whose life is going to be impacted here is here is what I mean by it climate Eventually is a development issue and this is the real big problem with I think climate how it is discussed at least where I am right now In in in in developed countries climate is still seen only as an environmental issue as a as a as a as a as a as a planet and cute and cuddly issue and we need to humanize The impacts of climate change what it means to ordinary people not just to polar bears I've got nothing against polar bears. I love them But we have to humanize the real pain and the real misery and most importantly the real insecurity That climate change causes we have to talk about climate change in the language of insecurity We have to talk about climate change in the language of vulnerability We have to talk about climate change in the language of poverty And we really have to talk about climate change as an issue of justice of Development justice around the world Let me give you one one example as I end and I was I was warned that I should be very neutral in what I say not bring politics So let me say I am not trying to bring politics I am professor of international affairs and and that's my lens But but this is really not a political issue. So bear with me for just a minute Some years ago. I wrote a book along with colleague that you did a book called human security Environment and development in South Asia This was about all of South Asia. We had about eight authors from all the countries in South Asia and In one of my favorite favorite numbers harrowing numbers that comes out of it Is is is is is is the following? And and it is about water And and it is it is the following at that point. It was 60 years of Constant conflict between India and Pakistan again. I'm not making a political point here 60 years of constant conflict between India and Pakistan not one more two or three wars Just up and down various levels of conflict in the 60 years of conflict between India and Pakistan total number of Indians total number of Indians killed by the Pakistan side in 60 years is less than Listen carefully total number of Indians killed by the Pakistan side in 60 years is less than the number of children only Who will die in New Delhi only where you said today in one year only because of dirty water only The exact same number is true on the Pakistan side for Karachi That I think is the reality of what climate change is about when it meets impact when it's to meet water I'm not suggesting those people died those children died because of climate change But I'm what I'm suggesting is that climate change exacerbates Development and human insecurity issues like the one that I'm talking about why does this make me Why does this make my blood boil at 4 a.m. Where I am now? Why am I getting excited at 4 a.m.  I have taught international affairs now for more than quarter of a century. I have no idea What I can do about that guy. I Know exactly what I can do about that tap eight dollars and 80 cents is The cost of saving one life because of dirty water and the cost is just about the same whether it is in New Delhi or in Karachi and That I think is the real tragedy of climate change that until we bring it from just being about carbon management Until we turn it from something about carbon management to something about human security to human well-being To development justice. We shall not be doing justice to the issue of climate change. Thank you very much Wonderful. Thank you very very much Professor Najam, I hope you can hear us. Maybe you can just nod if you can hear us Can you hear us yes You can can okay, can you nod if you can? Okay, please nod if you can hear us All right, so we will now Move into question and answers. I'm not sure if you heard me earlier, but thank you very very much for that extremely Erulite but also quite moving moving talk. I'm motivating so that so can we now can I invite Joe? It's not back up on the panel and Let's take a few questions a few comments If people would like to react to either of these talks or indeed to anything professor Chilani said the floor is open Yes, please first and second back then So I come from the health movement of a very simple question to ask you Do you think the health movement takes climate change very seriously? Okay, we'll gather a few questions because the back and forth but the time like becomes becomes hard Yes, please I Think there have been studies about how climate change has exacerbated the war in Syria or Yemen or places like this and Are we going to see more of this in the future and since we're talking about Asia? Maybe Some ideas about how what's happening with the climate can affect Asia from that point of view Okay, so the effects of climate change on in a sense traditional Military security kinds of issues and internal unrest issues I'd like to take a couple more because there's over there's a time like before we go back to our If it's been particularly if we go back to professor naja. Who am I missing? Oh, please There's a microphone coming to you This question for professor Nader. How would you place food security in the realm of? Climate change we serve as water Good security came One over here, please I'm uncle My question is I get that we understand what climate change does to us as human beings So I get that we know enough what it does to us Do we know enough what to do to mitigate or adapt? Okay, and I think that's probably enough for a first round of questions. Let me let me also just pose one to to Jyotsana Puri Which is to say that You gave us very convincing evidence of the the need for more careful and clear Evaluation studies understanding better what the How much we actually do know about how effective our interventions are but in a sense is a similar question To the one for professor Chalani. Is that the constraint on action or do we already know enough to act? reasonably well in at least a subset of cases so Maybe we'll just do this in reverse order turn to professor naja I'm first and then come back to you if that's okay Joe so over to you Not it Adil if you could just text him as well. Thank you very much. I I did hear the questions I've just muted it. So I hope you can hear me if I can just get a signal that you can I will I will not try to answer all the questions They are extremely Extremely good very good questions. They're excellent questions and and you realize that when someone says they're excellent questions What they really mean is that that that I have no idea how to answer that? That's why they have good questions But here is here is a few thoughts First on this this excellent question that was all paused does health take climate change seriously? I will I will leave that to you You are the health professionals, but let me honestly say to you what I do know I do not think that the climate change people take health seriously. I Really don't and then this is my sort of This is my my my jihad if you will In in climate change circles itself trying to get climate people to take development seriously because I think we have Carbonized the issue too much as I pointed out This is going to be a major issue. One of the things I didn't talk about But the neglect is major because I think amongst the biggest things that will hit the climate community is a Vector disease vectors and we are seeing this with epidemics whether it is dengue and so on so forth again I'm not suggesting the link between climate and these is Direct, but I think the scientific evidence is that that is probably one of the biggest things that will hit Beyond natural disaster that will make those dots connect and I don't think the climate community is ready for it That's my thought the second point is about wars and you are exactly right. There's been excellent research Certainly in Rwanda less so in Syria Which suggests that particularly in Africa some of the recent conflicts that we have seen have had climatic causality That doesn't mean the causality is linear What that means is that in many of these situations there is a natural resource push That comes before the conflict and what you start seeing is that you know Water disappears in my area. I start moving into your territory You are nice to me and you say sure come and take take take a drink Then I just stay there and very soon you find that you and I have ages centuries of dispute So climate becomes a major exacerbating factor In conflict and we have seen this in Africa within our region I think we have seen it more around the Afghanistan-Pakistan border We all talk about extremism and we all talk about the religious aspect But there's a natural resource aspect and you can look at at the spatial maps Of what has happened to vegetation in these nomadic tribes Of nomadic people with very little vegetation in the first place when you have large movements of people of refugees That puts a pressure on natural resources And that natural resource pressure then translates into Into into conflict a final thought on that about food security And and water wars water wars wasn't mentioned But when we talk certainly india pakistan, that's that's one of the thoughts that comes first on food security You're exactly right food once you talk water. You're really talking food Particularly in south asian, you know in in some ways. I think of what is food except Nature's way of packaging water Right water is the most important ingredient in what we call food in our region Nature just takes water packages it as meat sometimes and as as fruit other times and so on so forth so that we can Transport it but water and food are very very critically related my own research in pakistan suggests Both the good and the bad news the bad news is that we did a study of climate impact on On wheat and rice in southern panjab and upper synth in pakistan And what we found was that with current climatic trends the Productivity could go down by up to 15 1 5 that is huge For a country whose whose economics is really dependent on on these crops However, on the other side we found that even with the very little good adaptation Inputs that yield could come up Not just not just not just stay there, but come up By up to 12 percent From what it is now So there is a benefit just like there is a benefit in the energy transition There could be a benefit in better agricultural and food practices because of adaptation Water wars and last point on this and sorry for taking time the same book that I had mentioned In that book we had a final chapter which we all co-wrote and we had five conclusions about south asia and human security Only one of them was unanimous. These are south asians. We never agree. We are argumentative So off the five only one was unanimous. You wouldn't guess what that is But let me tell you the unanimous conclusion was india and pakistan will not go to war over water Why because we've got so many other things to fight about first But also why because water is too important. That doesn't mean water doesn't doesn't become conflict It becomes conflict very often at local levels It becomes conflict at the village level in in both india and pakistan Wherever water is so yes water is a source of conflict, but historically it has not been a source of national war My colleague Aaron wolf from the university of colorado suggests that the last real water war was pre-biblical But the reason for that is that water is so important to people So important to people that they have to find some way to coexist over it Even in israel palestine the only agreement that continues to work is the one about ground water


Income tax 2022-2023. Create a tax formula worksheet using Excel part number one. Let's do some wealth preservation with some tax preparation. Here we are in our example form 1040. We're using Lassert tax salt to populate it. You don't need tax salt to follow along, but if you have access to it, it's a great tool to run scenarios with. You can also get access to form 1040 related schedules and forms at the IRS website, irs.gov, irs.gov. We're going to be using this information to construct an Excel worksheet and put our income tax formula within the Excel worksheet. So note, if I look at the form 1040, the part up top is basically informational. The items related to the filing status and related to dependence will have an impact on some of the calculations down below. We're going to be using a single filer at this point with no dependence. So we'll start with a fairly basic scenario. Then we have in essence our equation down below the income line items. And then we've got our basically the support accounting instruction in the link below, giving you a free month membership to all of the content on our website broken out by category further broken out by course. Each course then organized in a logical, reasonable fashion, making it much more easy to find what you need than can be done on a YouTube page. We also include added resources such as Excel practice problems, PDF files and more like QuickBooks backup files when applicable. So once again, click the link below for a free month membership to our website and all the content on it. The deductions, the above the line deductions and the item eyes deductions and standard deductions or the higher of the two to get down to our taxable income. And then online to we have the actual tax calculation. Then we have other taxes and credits that are involved to finally get down to the amount that is refunded or the amount that is due. So you can see the actual 1040 is quite a long document. And if you were to actually read through it all, it would be referring to other documents and so on. And it would kind of walk you through each line. We can look at basically each line in the instructions to get further detail of it. But obviously when we're thinking abstractly, that's way too large of a thing to be keeping in our mind. Also note that if you were to construct this form 1040 from scratch, as if you're just going to build it today, then you would probably construct it more like an Excel worksheet, in which case you would put the bare bones on the form 1040 and have everything else on some type of schedule. And they've done that to some degree here. As we can see fairly recently, they broke out the schedules one, two and three that give more information, which we'll talk about shortly. But we also see that like this income line has a whole bunch of stuff on the face of the form 1040. You might want to ask, like, why? Why would that be? Why don't they just put that on another schedule? Many people don't have all this stuff involved. A simple tax return is just going to have maybe W2 income. The tax return would be a lot smaller if you just had like one income line and everything else coming from somewhere else. And one of the reasons it's built the way it is is because, of course, it's been changing throughout history. Before we had electronic filing, it was thought that you want to have just one page of a tax return would be the easiest tax return for most people. Therefore, they try to put everything on the one page and not have any other schedules. And then we had different forms for people that had more complex tax returns. Now that we're online and people file online, other schedules are not a big issue. And it makes a lot more sense to try to streamline the form 1040 to a summary page and then have everything else somewhere else. But obviously, we're not there at this point in time because we're building based on what has happened in the past. But conceptually, that's how we would basically visualize it. Most tax software has a tax formula kind of in it. So if I go down to here to the tax formula, this gives us the tax return and basically a tax formula outline. So this is basically what we're going to reconstruct in Excel. You might ask, why would I reconstruct it in Excel? There's a couple of different reasons. One, I think just building this in Excel helps us to visualize what we are doing. It's something that you can use as a double check to the software. The software as you do data input into it doesn't have the thing that I kind of like to go into school with to give me some assurance because sometimes I had a little bit of dyslexia, like I switched numbers around sometimes. And so the double entry accounting system, I really liked it because it gave me a double check that when I messed something up, I had to double check. That when I messed something up, when I turned a number around, I can see it. I can find it. I can fix it. We don't have that with the taxes because we're just looking at, in essence, an income statement. We don't have the balance sheet. There's nothing balancing. Therefore, how do you double check that you didn't do a data entry error, which I used to be just terrified of because I do them all the time? Well, then one way you can try to stop that is you could basically make an Excel worksheet and do the data input fairly quickly in an Excel worksheet. It also helps you to kind of see what the tax software is doing so that you can explain what the tax software is doing to a client. Because remember, if you're doing taxes as a profession, you don't really want to say, well, that's why the tax software spit that out. That's why it happened. What you're supposed to do is you want to use the tax software, be honest about using the tax software, but also be able to explain the rationale of what the tax software is doing generally. Not just, well, that's the answer because the answer key said that that's the answer. We want to add a little bit more detail in that. So those things are helpful as well. So let's just kind of reconstruct this. What I'll do is I'll build this in Excel and then I'll add to it as we go through the different components of our practice problem going through basically the accounting equation from income to deductions and so on. And we'll add more schedules to it each time. So right now I'm just going to add like the bare bones outline what I'm doing blank Excel sheet. I'm just zooming in. So I'm going to zoom into it a bit down here. I'm also in dark mode, by the way, so your ribbon might look a little bit different. But in dark mode, if you look, if you work on a lot of tax returns is easier. It's the Microsoft office has a dark mode, so I kind of like it. So I recommend it better on your eyes, they say. All right, so I'm going to scroll in. What I'm going to do is I'm going to format the entire thing in the format that I wanted to be in in general. So I'm going to put my cursor on the triangle. You can also hit control A. I'm going to right click on all the cells and format them. And I usually format them to be I like to go to currency. And then oftentimes I make the negative numbers red and bracketed. But right now I'm just going to make them black and bracketed because I might do some stuff with the colors. And I don't want the red numbers to kind of mess me up if I want to make the text color a little bit different. And then I'm going to go to the dollar sign. I don't want the dollar signs on everything. I'm going to remove it. I'm also going to remove the pennies because when we talk about taxes, we're usually rounding. So I'm just going to take it to the closest dollar because that's what the tax software does as well. That's what the tax return generally does. So that's what we will do. And then I'm just going to basically the top part of our formula is just kind of an income statement. So I'm going to the way you make these a little bit wider is you put your cursor between column A and B. So it looks like that, not like that, but like that. And left click and I'm going to drag it to the right to give us a little bit more space. And actually I might, well, let's just put my formulas first. So it starts off with income. So income is the top line. We're basically making an income statement here. And I might want to put signs in here as well just to indicate the direction of something. So I'm going to put another column before column A. The way to do that is I can select the entire column A by putting my cursor on that little drop down, right click and insert. And that should insert always to the left. So I'm inserting. I'm going to make this a little bit smaller, dragging this on down. And the next line I'm going to say is going to be minus what you might call above the line deductions or adjustments to income. Adjustments to income. And so I'll make this a little bit larger so you can see it. So if I look at the forms here, income is all of this stuff that's going to be summarized down here as total income. All of this stuff up top, as well as some of the other stuff on schedule one and whatnot. I'm just going to put all of that on a different tab. And then we're going to have the adjustments to income. And those are going to be the items on schedule one. Those are like the above the line deductions. So I'm going to put those here. I'll just put that on one line item. I'm going to make the whole thing bold because I think that might help you to see it. I'm going to select the whole thing, make it bold. You might not need to do that yourself, but I think that might help to see it. And then I'm going to say this is going to be equal then to a subtotal of adjusted, adjusted gross income. Why is it gross? Because it smells smelly. I don't know. It's not really gross. It's just a gross income.  You can double click on it to make it a little bit wider if you want. And then over here, so there's the AGI. So adjusted gross income. And then you've got the standard deduction or the itemized deduction. So I'm going to indicate that clearly in my formula by saying, okay, then after I get to the subtotal, I'm going to subtract. I'm going to subtract the greater of brackets, the itemized deductions or the standard deduction. And then the standard deduction, I'll put a little thing down here to indicate that I'm going to show those standard deductions on down below. So I'll put a table after I'm done with my formula of the standard deductions where I will pull from. You can see kind of a summary of the table right here. Those are the standard deductions, which will be dependent upon the filing statuses, for example. So then I'll go back to that in a second later, but that's going to give us the greater of those two. And then I'm going to add in this added thing, which we'll talk about later when we get to the business stuff. Schedule C and other business income, qualified business income deduction. You can see they kind of dumped this one in here. So sometimes we don't talk about it with the standard formula, but if you have a schedule C, they kind of squeezed this line 13 into the formula. That was kind of a mess when they tried to simplify the code. They did a good job for a lot of things, but then they kind of plugged up some holes with this adjustment here, which is a little bit, which is quite messy. You think there'd be a better way to fix that, but that's what we have right now. And then we've got minus, so that's the qualified business deductions, and then that's going to equal then the taxable income. And so that means that's going to get us down to here, the taxable income. And then if we're on page two, you would think we're done, but we actually got a ways to go from this point in time. So I'm going to go back on over and say, all right, what happens next? We were going to say multiply. You could say I'm going to say like as if it's a multiply, but it really comes from the tables times the average tax rate. Now, we don't really multiply times the average tax rate. We multiply by the tables. So in practice, what will happen is I will double check this number reconstructing it in that's being the taxable income in Excel to double check that I didn't miss key anything. And then I'll be more dependent. I'm not going to recalculate oftentimes the taxes because I'm going to rely on the software to do that due to the double entry account. I mean, due to the progressive tax system being quite complicated and having other things involved like different tax rates for passive income or different tax rates for capital gains and different tax rates for dividends and this kind of stuff that could kind of throw everything off. So but then you think we'd be you think we'd be done. That'll give us that'll equal then the tax before credits and other taxes. So now we've got the tax before credits, but we're also going to have other taxes that might be involved. So now I'm going to say minus other other other minus other credits credits.  And that's finally going to get us to the total tax. And then we're going to compare that to the payments that we made payments and the refundable fundable credits, which will finally get us to the tax due or refund. Okay, so let's populate this with this basic scenario that we have right on our tax return thus far. So this is our tax return. Let's see if we can kind of reconstruct this single filer and no dependence 100,000 W2 income. So that's what we will build. So I'm going to go back on over here and say, okay, on the income line item, there's going to be 100,000. But instead of me putting it right here at 100,000, I'm going to make another tab. So this is going to be the the I'm going to double click down here to rename the tab double click on the tab. I'm going to call it this is the tax form you love it's like the form 1040. And then I'm going to add another tab and this is going to be my income. So I'm going to call it income income. But this is on the form 1040 the income that's basically on the first page of the 1040. So I'm going to make another tab for this whole section of income in essence. So if I go back on over, I'm going to say, all right, let's format this cell. It's just like we did before. I'm going to hold control zoom in. I'm at 250 on the zoom in put my cursor on the triangle or control a right click. And I'm going to format and I'm going to say this is going to be currency. I'll make the negative numbers read this time and bracket it. I probably will not have negative numbers. Get rid of the dollar sign, get rid of the decimals. And there we have it. I'm going to say OK. And the major income categories here I could start to add from here. So the first one is the amounts from the W to income. So I'm going to say, all right, W to W to income. And then I'm just going to leave some space. I'm going to make this larger and then I might have multiple W to. So I'm just going to make a data input space fairly long that I can pick up the W to maybe down to here. I'll make it like blue. I'm going to go to this blue and I go to the standard color. I usually make this blue for my data input to indicate I'm going to put data input into here. And then I'm going to go to the home tab font group brackets and I'm going to put borders around it. So this will be my W to stuff. And then I'm going to say this is like W to for the employer number one or something like that, which I'm going to say is 100,000. And so there we have it. There's the data input and this is going to total up down below. So I'll put the total down here, which will calculate automatically. I'll put that in the outer column. This equals the sum of all of this stuff. So now I can put this many W to is in place and just put the dollar amount and it'll sum up automatically to 100,000. I'm going to make this whole thing. Let's put the whole thing making it border and blue. So that's going to be my total, let's say W to income. And so then I'm down. And so now I might add other kinds of income later, but for now this is my total income, my total income for form 1040 on the first page of the 1040. So if I sum this up, I just have the 100,000. That's it because that's the only thing I have. And I'm going to pull this page then into the first page of the form 1040. So if I go back to the form 1040 and I'm going to put my cursor in D1, I'm going to pull D1 from the second page, kind of like on the tax return, pulling from a separate schedule. So I'm going to say this is equal to the prior page, that number, not this one, but that one because I'm going to add more to it later. And there's our 100,000. And then I'm going to say the adjustments to income, adjustments to income are currently, I have zero for it. We'll talk about adjustments later. I am going to tie this to another place, another page later, as they do over here on our actual tax return, where we have the adjustments being tied to schedule one. So we'll do that later. And then I'm going to underline it, font group underline. And then this is going to be equal to then do a formula, the 100,000 minus the adjustments to income, which are zero right now. So the 100,000. Then I have the greater of these two. I'm going to indent these two to show that they are subordinate to this colon here. So I'm going to go to do that. I go to the home tab alignment and let's increase the indenting with this one increase so that gives it a little indent. And then I'm going to say I'm going to pull these to the inside and say I either have itemized deductions. I'm going to show these itemized deductions coming from another tab later. But for now, I'm just going to put zero or the standard deduction. Now the standard deductions, I'm going to put down in a little table down here so we can see them. I'll put them a little bit low, a little bit down here. And I'm going to call these the standard deductions. And I'm going to pull this from basically this information. If you're single 12,950, married filing joint 25,9, and so on. So I'm going to say, all right, the way I would remember this is single, single or married, married filing. Separate, that's going to be, which is married filing at separate like that is going to be, then let's put it right here. 12,950. And then if married filing joint, if I misspell anything, I'll check the spelling shortly, which is shorthand for MFJ. Usually it would be equal to this times two, you would expect, which it is because that makes sense. So there's the 25,9. And then if they were head of household HOH, then it's 19,4. And then if there's other kind of added components to it, if they're over 65 or blind, then you could have an added 1,400,1750 will get into those details later. This is for married filing joint and single, single head of household.  And then let's make this thing table. I'll put a table around this whole thing. Not a table, but font group borders. Let's put some borders around it. And so that's what I'm going to use. I'll make this a little bit wider to see that one. And maybe I could indent these going to the alignment and indent and then make this one a little bit wider. That might be messing stuff above, but there it is. So then if I go up, I can say I'm going to pull this information then from my table down below. So I'm going to say that the standard deduction is for single, which I spelled wrong right there. I'll check the spelling later. That's really bad though. Single. That's not how you spell single. Single.  My fingers are wrong. Single. Okay. Okay. So there it is. Then I'm going to put an underline here, home tab font group and underline. So there we have that. And then I'll pull the larger of the two over onto this side. Now, right now I'll just pick the larger of the two, which is this one later. I'll put a formula in, which will be an if formula or take the, take the larger of the two. So we'll talk about a formula to do that later. And then we'll get more into this one later. So that's going to be applicable if you have like a schedule C business oftentimes. I'm just going to put a zero for now on that one. And then that's going to be the, the taxable income taxable income is going to be equal to the 100,000 minus the greater of the standard or itemized deduction minus the qualified business income deduction. Boom. So 8750. That's the taxable income 8750. So we've recalculated this number. I'm going to go back on over and say, all right. And then the average tax, I'm not going to calculate the average tax, but rather use the software to calculate the tax based on the tables, which comes out to 14774. So I'm going to say, okay, this is 14774. I'm going to pull from the table and then I can check the average tax by just doing this is going to be equal to the tax before credits and taxes divided by the taxable income. And that gives us, if I make this a percent home tab number percentify 17%. If I go back to my tax formula, you could see the average tax 17%. So that allows us to like back into the average tax. And then we've got, if I go back on over, we've got other credits. We'll talk about that later, making new tabs to add those credits. We've got other taxes such as the self-employment tax, which we will add when we get into more complex scenarios on the like self-employment tax schedule sees, for example, total tax. Let's put an underlying home tab font underline. This is going to be equal to then the tax before other taxes and then other credits are going to be lessening it. Other taxes are going to be increasing it. So here's the tax what it was before minus the credits plus the other taxes that still gets us to the 14774. And then we had payments and other refundable credits, which we'll add another page for later. We don't have anything now, which finally gets us to the tax due or refund. This is going to be equal to the total tax minus the payment. Okay. And so at the bottom of the day or the bottom line, we got to the, to the, we have a penalty here, but basically before the penalty 14774. So we got the 14774. Let's do a quick spell check on it. I'm going to review and edit it and income is wrong. You started it off wrong on the first. Okay, but then you did pretty good. All right. So, so later we're going to make this a little bit more fancy. So notice we kind of just populated whatever we took the income from another cell, but then we just populated the standard. We took that from another cell, but we just populated some of these other items where as we get more complex returns, we will add more tabs, which will reflect a similar process as adding schedules. We'll also make it a little bit more fancy to try to indicate which items are going to be data input items, which items are going to be formulas. We'll put some colors into it as well. And we'll do a little bit more complex of a formula over here, possibly to pick the greater of these two items. I'll make this a capital and so that's what we'll continue with next time.


So, the title of the course is the Science of Everyday Thinking, and what we're doing here is looking at some of the claims that people make about immunization and vaccinations. And I just want to start off by doing a bit of myth-busting on a few of the common immunization myths. Is there any evidence whatsoever that heavy metals in vaccines cause any sort of difficulties? Is mercury a problem these days? Vaccines nowadays, at least in the developed world, do not have mercury in them anymore. It was taken out not because there was evidence that there was a problem, but because people were concerned that there might be without any evidence. The reality is that the small, very small amount of mercury that's present inside the vaccine material that's going in a routine vaccination is far less than you'd actually consume in the course of a normal diet. Right. And another common one is that newborns or small children are overloaded somehow. Their immune system can't handle all of these vaccinations. Well, the reality, of course, is that it handles all the infections that the vaccines are designed to prevent, and the vaccines are much less of a challenge to the immune system than the infections we're meeting, yet we still survive all the infections as well. So the reality is that the immune system is very adaptable. And it's also very selective. It only makes an immune response to what you give it to do at the time. So it's not as if you're wearing it out by musing up all the capacity because the capacity for everything else still exists even after you've dealt with whatever virus or vaccine you've just had. Some people think that vaccines have long-term side effects that we just can't see yet. And so they're being slightly risk averse to try to, yeah, they don't want to tempt fate or something for something that could happen in 30 years if it hasn't been tested appropriately. Is there anything to that? Well, that's the most difficult one to prove or disprove, of course, because the frequency with which people get rare diseases is low and everybody gets vaccinated or nearly everybody, and therefore you don't really have a comparison to say definitely these things are not due to vaccination. Having said that, the diseases that we recognize are no more common now than they were before routine vaccinations were introduced. Some of them become commoner because we're living longer now because we don't get the infections anymore, but there's no direct evidence that any particular disease has been attributable to vaccines. With one or two minor exceptions, I mean, some vaccines that were made in great haste to deal with infections such as the swine flu vaccine definitely caused rare autoimmune disease. It was only increased about twofold over what you would have expected to see, but it was definitely increased. That vaccine was never needed and isn't used anymore. But for the vast majority of vaccines, we've got so much data now to say that there's no evidence that these vaccines increase your risk of getting disease. And I assume then that the myth of vaccines or immunization causes autism is obviously incorrect. Well, that has been dismissed thoroughly now. And of course, the person who first raised that spectre has been shown to me present his data fraudulently to achieve an effect, and the total data set has given discredited. Wow. The last one, I think, is quite interesting. It's driven a little bit by what we've been talking about. The anti-establishment bias. And that would be that the pharmaceutical companies are driving the vaccine enterprise. And if they develop a vaccine, then everyone has to take it, and therefore profits roll their way. Well, the statement that you've made is true. A vaccine company exists to make vaccines, and because they are owned by shareholders, they are expected to turn profit. But the cost of developing these vaccines is extraordinarily high, and the risk is extraordinarily high too, because the vast majority of vaccines that are proposed never get out there to the market. So vaccine companies actually got to the stage where they're pretty well turning around, saying that we're not going to make vaccines anymore, we can't make any money off these. And it was only when the American government stepped in and said, look, we won't identify the vaccine companies against any potential claims for problems from the vaccine that the vaccine companies were really able to carry on making vaccines. Vaccine companies actually started as philanthropic organizations by and large, Commonwealth Serum Laboratories was a government organization that makes vaccines in Australia. The boroughs welcome was actually founded by Henry Welcombe as a philanthropic organization, and eventually became the welcome of trust, and the money that was made out of the vaccines is given back to research. Right. So are there any risks then with vaccines? Oh, sure. Every intervention that you do, there is a potential risk. Most vaccines are very, very safe. One in a million allergic reactions. That's about the same for almost all the vaccines that we currently give out. And that risk is obviously far less than the risk that can be associated with the infection that the vaccine is designed to prevent.  And some people feel a bit flu-like, but in terms of long-term risks, they only clearly identified one is that you can get an allergic reaction when you get the vaccine, and some of these are severe, but about one in a million people that get a vaccine get an allergic reaction. Now, can you give us a bit of an indication of what this looks like? I mean, when a vaccine is being tested, we've talked a bit in the course about the experimental method, about placebos and experimental groups and the difference between them. How does it work with such a large sort of intervention like a vaccine before it goes out to market? What needs to be done? Well, the vaccines always go through a fairly similar sort of testing process. First of all, you demonstrate if there is an animal model that the vaccine will protect against the infection in an animal. If there isn't an animal model of the infection, then you at least test that the right sort of immune response is made in the animal to actually predict that it will protect a human. Then you do those ranging studies and a small number of healthy volunteers to see how much of the vaccine you need to give to give an immune response that you think will be protective.  Initially, they start focusing on the ideal target group and you basically compare the vaccine with a placebo and find out whether the vaccine protects. You, of course, have to wait until enough. People are naturally infected in the placebo group before you get an answer, which is why you need big trials. Then eventually you go out and take all comers and immunize and everybody that you would plan to immunize, including people who might have had the infection already, people who have recently been ill with other illnesses and basically try and give as broad a picture as possible of how protective the vaccine is vis-a-vis of placebo and whether there are any groups that are at particular vulnerable risk for complications. The most vaccines turn out to be safe in almost everybody that they're giving to the one exception is that if you've got an already-impaired immune system and one in 100,000 people are born with a significantly-impaired immune system, then you're not likely to want to get a live vaccine because the live vaccine might actually cause a disease you're trying to prevent if your immune system can't respond to the vaccine. And so how long does that generally take? Is that a long process? That's obviously an expensive process. Well, on average 20 years from the time when you start thinking about the vaccine to the point where it's actually out there as a product. But the trials, for example, for the papillomavirus vaccine took somewhere about five years before they could reach a conclusion that the vaccine worked and that was after you'd done all the preliminary trials so it was just when you actually were trying to prove it actually worked. Wow. Now, we're in week nine of this course. There are a lot of people in the course probably who've made it to this point who probably aren't anti-vaccination types, I think. And so they're probably thinking about this fairly critically and they might be fairly willing to just dismiss the claims of anti-vaccination groups and so on just outright or call people silly or fanatical. What we're trying to do in this course is to prevent them from doing that to get them to think why people might believe in these sorts of things. Any thoughts about what drives people who don't want to vaccinate their children? Well, one very simple consideration is that if we don't have any polio in this country and we don't in Australia, we haven't had polio in this country for many years then why should my child have a vaccine to protect them against a disease which doesn't exist in this country? After all, the vaccine has a very slight risk associated with it and there is no risk of the disease. What people, of course, forget is that their children, when they grow up are likely to go off to parts of the world where the infection still does exist and it's a bit late to get the vaccine after you've already got the infection. So that's one reason it's not really a problem anymore. In the old days, people used to rush to get vaccines. The polio vaccine was fought for when it first became available in the 1950s in the United States because there was an epidemic of polio every second year and people died and people became paralysed and everybody knew what polio was. But now, the next generation of mothers and fathers don't actually see polio anymore so they don't see a risk. There's a second group that say, okay, well, if everybody else is vaccinated I don't need to get my kid vaccinated and, of course, that's quite correct because if there's no way of the infection spreading for example, if everybody's vaccinated against measles, except me, I'm fine. But what they forget is that if only 99 out of every 100 people are vaccinated against measles, that's still enough to allow an epidemic to occur because every one person who gets infected will infect potentially 100 others and if 99 are protected they won't get it but the other one will and will pass the infection on so all the people who are not immunized will be at risk. So that's a second reason which is not a particularly good one but you can understand why people think that especially for infections which are not as infectious as measles measles is incredibly infectious but most infections are not that infectious. The third reason why people think that is that they've listened to somebody who's had supposedly an adverse reaction to a vaccine. They're persuaded by their neighbour saying when my little kid got it then he had convulsions afterwards. Now, that's a rare complication of measles vaccine for example quite often the febrile convulsions turn out to be occurring with or without the vaccine but the story gets around Mrs Smith's daughter got into real trouble after vaccination and wouldn't it be better just not to be vaccinated? Those people are persuaded very rapidly when an epidemic of the infection occurs for example with the Wipinkoffin epidemics we've had recently that their kid should really ought to be vaccinated but it takes the infection to do it and then there's a small group of people who basically just have a set of disbeliefs about how the world works they don't believe in the infectious nature of disease for example they have an animistic approach to how people get disease it's punishment from God or it's against my religion or whatever and they just have these fixed beliefs and by and large they stay fixed. You've mentioned that one of the reasons that people tend not to immunise their children is like you said there isn't polio in the country but if there was it would obviously people would be flocking to be vaccinated can you paint a picture as to what some of these things look like polio and measles and so on for people who aren't in the cloud? Measles in most people's minds is just a spotty skin disease and for many people who get measles that's all it is but one in a thousand will get a serious internal complication and one in a hundred thousand will be left with major brain damage as a result of measles infection so that the unlucky one is not a trivial disease and in fact more people die worldwide of measles than of any other infection apart from diarrheal disease it's quite a significant problem particularly for young kids indeed that's why we push to get kids vaccinated as early as possible in the developing world because the risk of measles killing you is greatest when you're between the ages of zero and two polio well for 99 people out of 100 polio is a diarrheal illness which goes away after a couple of days but for one in a hundred people it leads to paralysis maybe of a leg or an arm if you're really unlucky it paralyzes your vocal muscles and of course the paralysis is permanent because the nerves that work these muscles are destroyed by the virus so that's why people used to end up on respirators for the whole of their lives because they were basically left unable to breathe for themselves another vaccine that I've been involved with of course is the vaccine for cervical cancer and again the virus that causes the cancer for 98 people out of 100 it's a trivial infection they never know they've had it but for the 2% of people that get persisting in infection they can go on and get a cancer which will kill them and if it's not detected early enough it's a lethal infection in fact papillomavirus kills more people worldwide quarter of a million people worldwide die every year as a result of papillomavirus infection so that's a very significant burden it's the ninth commonest cause of infectious disease death I was looking online at some of the claims by anti-vaccination groups and one group in particular in the US was looking at one of the I think it was a cervical cancer vaccine that you developed and said that people died as a result during the clinical trial how would you respond to them? Yes well judicial watch have been pushing that story for a while what they do is they take the data from the clinical trials and say there were deaths in the people that were immunized there were also deaths in the people who received the placebo these deaths were assessed by the clinicians who were running the trial as not in any way associated with the vaccine people die unfortunately all the time these vaccines were given to teenage and young women and teenage and young women occasionally commit suicide they occasionally are involved in lethal car accidents and they occasionally have other completely unrelated illnesses and there was no difference between the placebo groups and the vaccine groups so judicial watch can reasonably claim that yes there were deaths in the people who received the vaccine and I would have countered by saying yes equally there were deaths in the people who received the placebo and nobody thought that the deaths were connected with the vaccination process Sure Now what sort of role does the media play which is tricky I mean it we've been looking at a bunch of other issues in terms of climate change in terms of all sorts of claims that are made paranormal and everything else does the media play a large role when it comes to anti-vaccination? Yeah look the media play a good role and sometimes a less good role they get the story out there that a vaccine is available the direct evidence of that is that we're doing research on the herpes vaccine at the moment and there have been a bit of media coverage for that and that results in perhaps 5 to 10 emails a day to me to say when will this herpes vaccine be available so obviously everybody is now aware that people are working on the vaccine for herpes and when somebody claims that they have had a bad reaction to the vaccine it's sensation with stuff and the media cluster around and the story gains credence by the fact that more and more media get involved with it and the person responds appropriately to that by making their symptoms worse and worse and then of course the story goes global goes viral to use the current expression although that's not right for a vaccine I don't think and the net result is of course that the things get out of hand but what happened and the consequence of that with the cervical cancer vaccine was that India cancelled its entire vaccination program for the single cancer that kills more women than any other in India simply because there were 4 deaths which were attributable and the media picked up on it the Hindu times decided this was a political issue and that it went viral in India and eventually the government intervened and said that we can't have this much bad reaction even though there was no justification for it so they just cancelled the programs so what is the best counter what's the best way I think to that you can think of I mean you've had a lot of experience with information campaigns and education what do you think is the most effective to try to get as many people to immunize as possible given the in the face of this sort of blatant disregard for the evidence well there's 2 different approaches that are needed in countries where the problem is common and vaccines are there for being newly introduced to get rid of a problem then simple word of mouth works extraordinarily well everybody knows somebody who's had the infection and if you come along and say we've got a vaccine and it's safe and particularly if that message comes from within the community from the district nurses or health workers that are known to the people the vaccine will be accepted and that's usually sufficient in the developed world when you're introducing a new vaccine for something which people haven't really seen as a problem or don't think that they are at a particular risk of then there are 2 important bits one is that you start early with an education program before the vaccine becomes available you get people used to the idea let them ask the questions and make sure that you don't cover up stories that have been spreading around and make sure that everybody does get the information but you produce booklets like this one which basically explain the facts behind the story as well in a way that people can understand and again word of mouth is important if the doctor recommends it, if the district nurse recommends it if the midwife recommends the vaccine then the chances are the mother will accept it and you've got to also accept that some people don't want to be vaccinated that's the right you never say you must be vaccinated you say you should be vaccinated because that's the best way to do it okay this is a question that we ask each of our guests on in think 101 the title of the course is the science of everyday thinking given your career, given your experience in vaccination and immunology and so on what advice do you have for the students, the 60,000 80,000 students who are taking the course to improve their everyday thinking I think that basically the more educated people are the more likely they are to make correct decisions about things you can never have too much education even if you're not going to be a scientist if you're not going to go out there and do experiments understanding the scientific process the fact that you can make a hypothesis or call it a guess if you like and then test it and then at the end of the testing you're reasonably confident about whether your guess was correct or not that is the basis for making decisions about things that you don't leave people with so that even if they don't do the experiments they should be aware that when data are gathered through experimentation it is actually testing an idea and it can be falsified you can get an answer that says your hypothesis was wrong the alternative is straight guesswork don't bother doing the experiment let's just say I'm right and then you get an answer and that's not an uncommon approach to things but it does lead to some very interesting mistakes the important thing is to say that wherever possible test the hypothesis one of the issues that we're dealing with in the course is the idea of cancer clusters so these are quite common we even had a case I think in 2006 in Brisbane if you had much experience do you know the phenomenon or why they tend to pop up when I sat on the international agency for cancer research scientific advisory board for a few years this was one of the topics that used to come up regularly it related to use of mobile phones it related to stuff being discharged from factories some cancer clusters are very real environmental pollutants can produce a cancer cluster and sometimes those cancer clusters are the first evidence of the particular chemical that can cause a cancer mini-matter disease for example is an example where toxic pollution produced a whole swathe of cancers and then the Bhopal disaster as well where there was a release of methyl cyanide I think it was into the environment and that produced a whole cluster of cancers but most of the clusters that people are worried about that mobile phone tower this particular power station there are half a dozen cancers or ten cancers in the community and somebody says that's a cluster rare events occur rarely but they do occur and if you've got a population of 7 billion and you're sensitized to looking for clusters you'll find them and you'll find them with just the probability that you would expect if it's all random in other words, a statistical analysis plus a close look to see if it really is a cluster because quite commonly what you find is they say well we've got six cancers but it turns out that they're all quite different and they're not really a cluster of anything but six people who were unfortunate to get a disease so that it's partly statistics and partly common sense but you just have to remember that people do get struck by lightning every now and then and cancer clusters are in the sort of struck by lightning mode one in a million chance but it does happen My name is Ian I think about infections


Alright, now I don't think y'all need any more reminders of just how that game against the Dolphins last year went Because it was ugly. It was rough From start to finish even though Raven they started off. It was like, okay They moving the ball even though they settle for a field go early on but they were moving the ball But then it just it stopped and it just got worse and worse and worse and worse as you all already remember But Lamar Jackson He he didn't forget what happened last year in Miami and his presser Some of the stuff that he said in yesterday's presser really stuck out to me And and it really let me know that of course like you're gonna try to win every single game, but to me It just seemed like this game is a little bit different Like So you too team keep it clean what's going on the same grave and hit with another video and in this video We know that we didn't forget what happened last year. We know Lamar didn't forget what happened last year Miami and certainly the media in order and as they didn't forget what happened Last year in Miami. And it was rough. It was rough. It started off like hey, maybe Ravens They they don't do they don't do the thing man. They gonna make this happen But then as every quarter went on it just got uglier and uglier and uglier and That was the game to where as fans of the NFL if you didn't know what a zero blitz was If you ain't know what it was that was the game where you learned about it because that was the talk of The town for like the rest of the season almost was like hey I dolphin showed the blueprint how to beat those Baltimore Ravens dolphin showed the blueprint how to stop Lamar Jackson Hey cover zero blitz. That's how you do it even though a lot of times. They didn't even do the cover zero blitz They showed it But they didn't strike all the time They would show it and they would disguise it in different ways and whatnot and have some guys going in some guys staying back They just did an excellent job on defense that day, but Somebody else who does an excellent job are the team keep it clean patrons and a team keep it clean channel members I got to give a special shout out to the newest team keep it clean channel members Heather Who is also a team keep it clean patron? So we appreciate you double and then Kevin So shout out to the both of y'all appreciate the both of y'all. Thank you to the both of y'all much love to the both of y'all now Somebody who also deserves a lot of love a special shout out to her shout out to Rita Because Rita in the presser yesterday Rita she asked the first question and it was a really good question because it's a question that Hopefully it's the start of something Long-term with the Baltimore Raven. She asked if Lamar Jackson was comfortable going under center Since that's something that we hadn't really seen and that's true Like we had heard Greg Roman talk about it in years past like oh, yeah We're gonna have Lamar Jackson operating on the center a lot more this year, but then didn't happen And then I know last year people like well, hey the offensive line, they weren't in good shape They weren't shambles they were hurt So if you have Lamar under center then he's gonna be on his back in less than two seconds every play because the offensive line They're not gonna be able to pass protect and they not even gonna be able to run block if they were that bad So, okay. I understand it, but Okay, I'll give it a little pass. Not a big pass, but a little pass But anyway, we're here now and in the game against the Jets. He was under center He may have taken more snaps under center in that game against the Jets then he did the past like two three years But anyway, I am over exaggerating a little bit or am I but anyway? She asked if he was comfortable going under center since again That's something that we hadn't really seen like that and Lamar said they've been working on since camp And he said coach wanted to do things a little bit different this year and that he is certainly Comfortable with it. So then it got to the sort of the cringy part It's like if you're a parent If you're a parent and you tell your kids, hey, don't do this a lot of times the kids will ask why Why why why why why why why why why why why not? Why can't I do that and It's up to you as a parent to explain to them why the reason when because it's it's one thing if you take it All right, you can't do this, but you don't give them a why it's like They're gonna be thinking why and they're not gonna fully understand But if you explain it to them and allow them to understand Then it'll make it make that much more sense to them, but this is the part of the presser where it seemed like There were kids that were asking their parents why even though the why had already been given because Somebody asked they asked him about the contract and he said that he was done talking about it and that he was focused on Adolphans now now Lamar has already talked about and he gave the reason he said a we're gonna be negotiating cool Hopefully we get this thing done before week one cool But if it's not done by week one, then I'm cool. I'm gonna play in everything, but I'm not gonna talk about it anymore So he gave the why he gave the reason he gave all that before But somebody decided they still wanted to ask after So they asked me about the contract and he said he was done talking about it He's focusing on the dolphins now then somebody else They asked if the guaranteed money was so important to him and before he answered He took a little sip of his smoothie and when I saw that I said, oh, okay Yeah, he trying to hold himself back from saying something that he might regret later because I'm sure he was very annoyed Like again, he's already expressed. I'm not talking about the contract ain't talking about the contract I'm talking about the dolphins and somebody still asked anyway, and then after that a third person They this is what they even apologized first. They said I'm sorry But then still asked a question about the contract and I'm just like oh my goodness Like I don't know man. Anyway, um now for the part about the dolphins Somebody asked when you look at the game film from last year Why do you think they were as effective as they were and they also asked them on Jackson If he expects to see a lot of the same stuff that the dolphins did last year And he said the dolphins they really caught him off guard last year He said that they really haven't went over defenses going all out zero against him Now when he said that I wasn't sure if he was talking about if they hadn't went over that last year Or if they hadn't went over that this year So cuz again, I would think last year like you got the person who if you had the person who invented cover zero As a defensive coordinator that being wink.  So I would have thought that last year. They would have definitely Had some practice a lot of practice Against that. So again, I don't know if he's talking about last year or maybe he was talking about this year I'm not sure But he also said that he feels that they'll have an answer for this year He said he said that they watch film and then right after that he said that they've watched a lot of film So he reiterated it right away that they've been watching these Miami Dolphins And he said they don't want it to happen again. Oh, yeah I don't think we wanted to happen again either because that was yikes. That was a big yikes Because they just they manhandled the Ravens last year. They they bullied them. They just They they tore him apart Then Jeff shout out to Jeff's review He asked if that game changed the way other teams played them because people talked about that being a blueprint to facing the Ravens And he said Lamar said that other teams did do the zero the zero blitz and whatnot But it was just the way that the dolphins did it. He said they'll have an answer this time around you know like if You if you tried something say for instance, and I just use food because I love food I'm a connoisseur of food if you try this recipe and you like hmm I know this recipe is it is going to be fire. It's gonna be so good. I'm gonna love it I'm gonna make this and I'm gonna love it. My family's gonna love it. My friends gonna love it. I got it so you made the recipe and It ended up just being I Then you let some power somebody taste it and they were like this. That's it. That's Okay, this was your special recipe.  I don't know man. It just to me when I heard him speak It didn't just sound like he was talking about any other game now Somebody did ask him Oh when you when you even though he's not playing at home the home that they were talking about Because one reporter was like hey when you play at home against the Dolphins He said you played against him I think in preseason of your rookie year and then you played against him Last year too. I think he forgot about a 2019 game. I don't know But anyway, he was like that. Do you get extra like excited or amped up when you when you play against the Dolphins at home Or when you play at home And he was like, no, I get excited for every game. I get hyped up for every game But I was thinking like this game is at M&T Bank Stadium. It's not at his home But I mean, it's a home game for the Ravens, but anyway, I that that just to some that that that was on my mind when he said that He uh Jeff Jeff's rebuke shout out to Jeff man Jeff said, uh, what are the keys to punishing a team that wants to bliss you a lot? And Lamar said by going at their weaknesses How they came at ours last year He said that they don't really know how the dolphins are gonna play them Because they could show one thing on film and then end up doing another and that's true You don't know what they're gonna do. Yeah, you don't know how they're gonna come out And and this is it's a chess match, right? It really is. I know that little corny saying Oh, this is a chess match between these two teams or it really is Because these teams are trying to figure out each other's moves So the game is gonna really tell the answers to that question So then they moved on from that and um He was asked about a question that has been on a lot of people's minds And a question that when we did the episode question from subscribers the other day I just I didn't know who the issue stemmed from in the Lamar whether it was Greg Roman Well, I did not know a lot of people in the comments section for me Y'all always got a lot of good stuff to say and it was very creative stuff too and fun stuff But anyway, he was asked about the offense rushing to the line with the play clock winding down And he said that they do have some long play calls I said they have to do it a little faster sometimes and then he joked about the play clock Being a little bit low, but then he said that this week they will be better and as the season goes on They will continue to get better at that and that's important that that's important because You you want to have time to examine The defense because say for instance like you you get into the the line of scrimmage You getting up there to the line and it's like two seconds left I mean unless you like somebody crazy something you could scan a defense in two seconds and no Okay, more power to you But I would think that you would want to have as as much time as you possibly could Especially because ravens they do a lot of motion with people and whatnot. So I don't know man, even though my guy my guy jt. He did bring up a good point that uh, because he showed me how uh To the the bingles and the rams Last year they were those two teams Were in the top three or top four spots for teams that got the most the layer game penalties last season So, I mean it and obviously what they I mean they made it to the subo But um, I just like with the ravens it just It just seems like a lot of rushing and then if you rush stuff a lot of times It doesn't come out as neat as and successful as if you would have taken your time But we'll see how they uh, they move about that going forward Um, he was also asked about I say a likely his first game being a little rough Uh, he said that it was just his first game and that it was nothing He said he still got 16 games left. Which they do is a lot of games Uh, he said likely it's still a star in his eyes and he'll prove it So shout out to Isaiah likely man And then shout out to Rita again She asked if the slow starts could have been attributed to them not playing in the pre season And them just having to knock that rust off and he said yeah, he thinks so a little bit He said he felt a little stiff Early on in the game and that's I didn't say exactly that he was stiff But I said that he just did not seem as energetic As he normally is he wasn't as loose as he normally is he just he did not seem himself early on But it wasn't until really for me when I really saw him like really get loose was uh after Rashad Bateman touched him That's when I really saw him like really like okay. I was like, okay that day goes days Um, but anyway, uh, he said uh, would it be in his first game action in nine months? Um, he said a couple of them said the same thing as far as them having to really Knock that rust off. But let's hope that against these Miami Dolphins That not only is the the rust knocked off But so are those fish