Hi everyone, Joe for jaspyscasebreaks.com coming at you with Jaspy's 14 box bow nose football mixer featuring that bow jacks and helmet, full size helmet that we're giving away at the end. There you go, everyone will get a random team of NFL, no vet commonship. At the end, we'll re-randomize everybody's names, new dice roll, top name, gets that. I guess second name will get points, if any. Collected all as one lot for spot number two. And we'll use the same dice roll and separate lists if there's any other randomizers we need to do. Those are the boxes featured in this mixer right here. It's like a pretty good looking mixer. Big thanks all of these folks here from Matt Buckler all the way down to Robert Runkel. Congrats to the spot winners right there. Thank you to the people who bought their spot straight up. I appreciate that. All 32 teams are in. And let's roll it, let's randomize it. Four and a two, six times for each list. One, two, three, and sixth and final time. After six, we got AP down to Chris Maxwell. Four and a two, six times for the teams. One, two, and sixth and final time. After six, we've got the Bills all the way down to the Pat Riot, to the Patriots.  So let's get all this on one screen, sort by column B. We're gonna pause the video and allow for a little bit of trading time. And when we come back, we'll see if there's any trade and then the break, let's take a round. All right, trade window closed. Welcome back everybody. There is a trade though. Just got in before the trade window closing, Travis and Chris made a deal. So Chris is out of the Patriots spotted into the Denver spot. Put a T next to there for trade, so you know who draws first blood in the trade if you're falling along at home. And Travis is now in the Pat spot out of the Broncos spot right there. So there you go. Lot of trade chatter too, but just that one deal. It's all good. The 14 box bow nose football mixer. Let's print that out. There's all 14 boxes right there. You can see some on the top cam. You can see some on this cam right here. I'll take it out of the box once we give it away, but that's the Bo Jackson Raiders helmet. Looks pretty cool. Good luck, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you very much. We have a pick your team football mixer where we're giving away break credit. So if you wanna do another mixer tonight, I would definitely be down for it. All right, I don't know if I have enough supplies for this break, but we'll wing it. Where should we start with here? I don't know what to start with. We'll just grab boxes and we'll go. We're gonna start with this Donner's Elite retail hanger box from 2016. It's a little confusing. They hide the pack right there, but there's no way for me I just have to tear this open like the Hulk. It's, what's going on? We've got Marcus Allen etched in time. We've got Field Vision, Tom Brady, and we've got a Jalen Mills autograph, rookie auto for the Fly Eagles Fly. That'll be for Asa. Maybe a little tried to trade, couldn't trade Moto. And there's James Winston right there. All right, let's grab this. 20 and we're just gonna bounce around the years. We're going 2019 playoff. Penini playoff. Playoff? Playoff? Yes, what are some of the interesting games that are happening this weekend, folks? Patriots are at bills. Are the Pats gonna lose like three in a row? Is that what's gonna, the bills have struggled a little bit the last couple of games too. They haven't looked super sharp.  Buffalo's favored, they're minus three and a half. What does everyone have in that? They're gonna start Jared Sidham? They should, Sean Jaspy saying they should start Jared Sidham. I can't, it's a mess. Yeah, well, he looked so good like first couple of weeks or so. Some people are speculating maybe his, maybe COVID has kind of made him, kept him less than 100%. But I didn't think it was gonna be this bad. Oh, have they lost three already? Could they lose four in a row then? No, they're two and four. They've already lost three in a row. So could they lose four in a row then, Brad? I mean, when's the last time a Belichick team has lost four in a row? The Belichick's Patriots team. All right, here's 2019. We got Troy Eggman to 10, two out of 10 and Stargazing, Rookie Wave. Baker Mayfield, Stargazing and JJ Arthego Whiteside, Rookie Wave. And here is a redemption. Any guesses on that redemption for bragging rights? So Patriots last win was against my Raiders back in late September. And there's Rookie Stallions, Tony Pollard for the boys. Cowboys, what's going on with them? A lot of injuries, but is there unrest in the locker room? This is what happens in a COVID season, I think. Mike McCarthy doesn't get to have like a summer with like a face-to-face with his team. New coach, not face-to-face with his team and trying to instill a new system, a new philosophy. It's hard to kind of get everyone to buy in. I think that gets a little difficult. I think that's one of the, and plus the injuries don't help. But I think that's one of the more interesting examples. Harrison Smith, Game Day autograph. That'll be for Minnesota, that'll be for Oliver. It's Josh Jacobs, Rookie. And we got a 60 out of 99, Mac Wilson, Drew Locke, Eric Command and a James Connor, Accolades, Relic. That's true. We have new coach and the Browns are hot. I don't think the other new coaches or teams with new coaches, that's something we talked about in the preseason, teams with new coaches and new quarterbacks, you know, might struggle more than teams that are more established. No, but I think Browns might be one of the exceptions there for five and two. And we've got Gardner Minshew, Rookie autographs variation, fourth down variation. That goes to Jacksonville, that'll be for Matt Buckler. Jacksonville, they're on a buy. Kind of kept it close with the Chargers last week, I wanna say. All right, here's 2020 Donnery's football, Cellopax. Cowboys are the same offense of coordinator, Chris Maxwell is pointing out. But yeah, but in just in terms of, just in terms of Mike McCarthy having, I mean, I think it makes a big difference. It's still a brand new philosophy to that team. I heard something on NFL Network where they were like, Mike McCarthy came to Dallas and Mike McCarthy teams have always won the turnover battle. He's always been plus on the turnover margin, right? While the Cowboys in the last handful of seasons have been not very good on the turnover margin. They're in the negative. So I heard on NFL Network that Mike McCarthy went to Dallas and went to their training facilities. They only had like three or four jugs machines or something like that. When they were trying to do more practicing with ball control stuff, they had to buy like five more. And trying to get teams to buy into all of that, it gets a little difficult. New philosophy, new coaching style, plus the injury doesn't help. But can that division might still be able to win that division. The Cowboys are playing the Eagles this Sunday night, looks like. Who does everyone have in that one? Philadelphia is the prohibitive favorite. They're minus seven and a half at home. Is Ben D'Nucci starting that game? Dust off your Ben D'Nucci rookie cards from this year. We're gonna find Ben D'Nucci in this 2020 Donner's set right here, maybe. Yeah, the Dallas defense looks like the team from Unnecessary Roughness is. That, I thought that defense, I mean, again, I'm sure there's injuries involved there as well. I just thought that defense was gonna be so much better.  All these blue parallels, of course, will ship. They're parallels. Poor Dak Prescott, and there he is right here. Hopefully he'll be back healthy. What happens? Does he just become a free agent in the off season? Because is this the last year is Contra? I actually don't recall at the top of my head how that's gonna happen. Cowboy organizations say they're gonna sign him, but it's gonna be that long-term deal. Maybe they give him an extra year or two. Oh, they can tag him again? That's probably what they'll do. What's the time frame they're gonna tag? Yeah, Rich is saying that too. What's the time frame on an injury like that? It's gotta be at least a calendar year, and then however long it takes to get you into football shape? Yeah, no idea, says Rich, yeah. I don't know either. My guess is a calendar year. Like an ACL injury, almost a calendar year, and then however long it takes you to get into NFL shape, and then let alone be able to play some snaps. How long did it take Alex Smith? Yeah, Chris Maxwell's saying cowboys need to have a decision made by March, but it would be crazy not to tag him. Yeah, it's tag saying maybe a year, another four to six months maybe, get back into football shape, and then Odell Beckham Jr. out for the rest of the year too with an ACL. I wonder, it'll be an interesting question to see how the Rams, how the Browns do in that, without Odell Beckham Jr. Yeah, Alex Smith was out for almost two years. I don't know, is that, I'm not sure if that's a, that's a super short print or not. Yeah, there's your franchise tag answer. Thanks, Chris. And I think they can only do that for so many years, right? No Ben DiNucci's in here, well no Justin Herbert, Joe Burroughs, or two is in here either, interesting. All that, unless I, I don't think I missed any, I'll just keep an eye out for those, but anyway, there you go. All right, how about some 2016 black gold? It's right in front of me, let's do it. Franchise gold, 36 out of 225, this is all Patriots right here going to Travis. You got Matthew Stafford to 225, going to the Lions, that'll be for Karen. And we've got Derek Henry, 77 out of 99, gold prospecting quad relic, nice one for the Titans, Mike. This would be Rookie, Derek Henry, it's 2016. There's Jacim Grant, rookie autograph for the Dolphins, 46 out of 99, and that is Colton and the Dolphins. And we've got our randomizer here, Kent Dixon, Devonte Booker, Tyler Irvin and Paul Perkins, 197 out of 249 Rookie Tetrad. Chris remembering that Grant, Jacim Grant, so fast but his hands, hands were like butter. We'll do this randomizer at the end along with the Bo Jackson giveaway, we'll set that up here so we don't forget about it. Next pack, we got Warren Moon to 225, Warren Moon stuff, of course we'll go to Mike and the Titans. Turn down for Watt, JJ Watt, 154 out of 225, Texans. Michael Hansen with Houston. We've got a Todd Gurley relic, 45 out of 150, Ram's edition, going to Gene. And we've got Black Gold Rookie signatures, Tyreek Hill. 152 out of 225 for the Speedster, going to Kansas City, Robert with the Chiefs. And we've got AJ Green for the Bangles, Steven Rushing, dual relic, or AJ Green and Tyler Boyd. Eight out of 49, dual relic. All right, that was 2016 Black Gold. Why don't we get into some plates and patches right here? 2019 plates and patches. We've got a one per box plate and it's Keenan Allen from Obsidian Football. That's a pretty cool plate, look at that. That goes to Robert and the Bolts. Gets the nice Obsidian plate, and we can't give you this top litter right here. Look at that, there's a chip right there. I'm not befitting this, actually there's kind of a little chip right there but it's not as bad. All right, there you go, Robert. All aboard, the Big Hit Express. Nice, all right now, we've got Rookie Daniel Jones. He reveals a Jerome Bettis to 35. Behind Rookie Daniel Jones is Love Triple Relic, two out of 99. All you need is love. Washington Levi, and there's Daniel Jones right here. Rookie Daniel Jones for the New York Football Giants. Going to Chris Maxwell. See the future, out there? We might get the number one pick. If that's the case, we'll go back in time to 2016 again. I've been hearing Rumble, I don't follow the college stuff too closely but I've been hearing Rumblings that Trevor Lawrence might just stay at Clemson if he doesn't like the team with the number one pick that he thinks he's gonna go to. Would he do that? Could he do that? Should he do that? Would Clemson even want him back? All right, yes he can, now could he then? Would he? Should he? He can, but he won't, says Chris Maxwell. Yeah, he's just, I mean, you can't risk, you can't risk being the number one pick and not take that paycheck. Imagine if you have like a serious injury, playing one more year of college football. I would start my career right away.  I think you want that, right? You want that kind of confidence. Yeah, Adam's a Jets fan. He's saying, gut feelings, he'll be in the draft but hoping the Jets have a promising new coach at that point. Right, look at Tua, cost him millions. Sterling Shepherd, Rated Rookie, New York football giants. You know, there was no auto in that plates and patches, by the way. It was just the plate, the relic and the Daniel Jones. Got shorted an autograph, on average. There's Carson Wentz, Eagle's Relic, going to ASAP. Look at that, Michael Thomas, Rated Rookie card for the Saints, Ryan P. And back when we were ripping this stuff in 2016, these Rated Rookie cards, we shipped, obviously they're rookies, we shipped them but they weren't really getting a lot on the secondary market but now, nowadays that, for a lot of players, that has really boosted in value. 2018 Phoenix coming at you. Ladies and gentlemen, let's take this moment to let you know that on jazby's casebreaks.com we got pre-orders for Phoenix football right now, 2020 edition of Phoenix football. In fact, I like seeing the 2018 version because earlier today I was saying, since it's debut, maybe that's the debut year, maybe a year before that, but since it's debut, I feel like every year they have improved the design and the vibe of Phoenix. So here, let's take a look at the old Phoenix and then you can compare that to new Phoenix and see what you think. I think the general kind of chrome design is still there. I feel like they've just improved, like relics, they've improved just overall design, they've sharp tightened it up a little bit. I like what they've done with this. So pre-order the new Phoenix football, drops this Friday on jazby's casebreaks.com. Right, good luck, everybody. We got 19 out of 199 Z Jones for the bills, AP with the bills on my Raiders. Now we got Doris Fountain of Youth, Jersey and Autograph, Doris Fountain going to Jeff Houston and Indianapolis. That is 264 out of 299. And we got Armani Watts, Rookies. Yeah, Calvin Ridley should be in a lot of these products. David Johnson, Adrenaline Rush, Cardinals, Benjamin. That was 21 out of 49, by the way. Kike Kutie, big relic there for the Texans. That'll be for Michael Hansen, 37 out of 100. John Kelly for the Rams, 71 out of 199. We got Jordan Lazley, Rookies to 149. Jose with the Ravens, 006 out of 149. And Lights, Camara Action, Veteran Materials. Going to Nolens, that'll be for Ryan with New Orleans Saints, 18 out of 100. And a Lamar Jackson rookie card, nice. Ravens, Jose with the Purplebirds. We got Keenan Allen to 299 for the Bolts. That'll be for Robert. We got Drew Brees, 002 out of 299 for the Saints, Ryan. Jalen Holmes rookie, Jaleel Scott rookies, Ravens. I think one of the things they did in subsequent sets was maybe trim down the numbered cards, I think. Just tighten it up a little bit. Vita Vea rookies, that's to 199 and Vaughn Miller to 299. Derwin James rookies, another one for Robert and the Chargers, 299. There's Calvin Ridley right there. To Tommy was looking for. From Tommy to Tom of Brady, 11 out of 299. Patriots edition going to Travis. We got Rising Rookies, Gloves and Autograph, Josh Rosen. What are they, what's gonna happen with Josh Rosen? You don't think Belichick could turn Rosen into, I don't know if the Cam Newton experiment doesn't work out. I think some team can take a chantette. That's for Ben and the Cardinals. Could be a wait and see on that guy. Blake Bortles to 199 and Mason Rudolph, the Red Nose Reindeer. Maybe the Steelers. Could the Steelers do something with? Big Ben's not gonna be around forever. All right, I'm saving all this mosaic to the end. That choice especially will be to the end. Let's go with some certified. 2020 certified, that's right, Rosen on the Bucks practice squad for now. And you don't think, this is Bruce Arians, sort of a quarterback whisperer? I don't think he can do something with, no?  He's no good. I feel like he just didn't get a fair shake. The coach, the team that hired him got fired. New coach, Cliff comes in, wants a completely different quarterback.  Maybe gets a little bit of a damaged goods tag attached to him. Maybe he's not that into football. Maybe he's, who's gonna take a chance on him now? It's not a practice squad. Let's see if he rises above the practice squad level. And we'll do an autograph and relic recap at the end. This is still 2020. So there's Devin Duvernay for Jose and the Ravens. 109 out of 199. Joe Burrow, 2020. Nice, who got the bangles? It's even Rushing, who won that spot in a blaster break, one of those filler breaks, got randomized the bangles and ends up with the first Joe Burrow of the break. Chris, I wanna see that in a scouting report someday. Josh Rosen's Millie Vanilly. He thought he was great, but it was all fake. I wanna see that in an official scouting report. Ms. Jalen Johnson for the Bears. Ms. Chandler Jones, 1999. Tom Brady, greatest, insert. Vaughn Miller. Pied Edward DeLair. Daniel Jones to 450. That's right, playing it on the rain. It's not Rosen's fault, it's the rain's fault. That's for the Chiefs. That's gonna go to Robert Runkle, Kansas City. Got Cam Acrest, 399. Cam Green Acrest. Speaking of green, there's some green right here. A.J. Dillon for the Green Bay Packers. Adam Cupperman with the Go Pack Go. And the Michael Pittman Jr. is our autograph. There it is, two color patch and auto. 301 out of 349 for the Blue Horse Shoes. Jeff Houston with Indianapolis. And we got, hey, look at this, a Tony Syragusa autograph. Five out of 20. What's Tony Syragusa doing these days? I feel like he did some TV with CBS for a long time. All right, let's get some of that elite going right here. You met Tony Syragusa after Jets Raven's game. A few years back, Adam saying, your dad knew his uncle. He always seemed great on TV. He was on the field. I thought he was kind of funny. What do I think about the Ram's new uniforms? I don't mind the uniform so much as the logo itself is just not good. You know, like that LA sort of logo looks like a Charger's logo. But I kind of like that sort of 3D polygon shape Ram's logo in the middle of the field looks cool. I've not driven by the stadium yet. I think I should. It's actually not too far off the freeway going home from work. So definitely do that at some point. I don't know how close I guess I could see it from the, from the street right there because it's pretty flat. I think it's right next to the forum. So that area has, it's kind of like a square gridded off kind of nicely. So it might be flat enough where I could definitely see it from street side. Tony Sirgoose had a home improvement show called Man. Need more Tony Sirgoose on TV. There's Antoine Winfield, Jr. to 399. Yeah, see this, the uniform, maybe that's last year's but that logo I'm not a fan of. Doesn't move, doesn't move the needle for me. I like the, this playing card design and elite. Kenyon Drake. I don't know, what do you think about the logo Chris? It's Tom Brady. All these Tom Brady inserts of course will ship to their respective teams. Anything crazy here? Marquis Brown to 399? No, I guess not. Matt Ryan could report a card. Thank you. All right, so we've got a trio of mosaic boxes right here which we're gonna save till the end. So let's do limited gala, some mosaics. Maybe I'll do some mosaics. Maybe I'll leave choice and gala to the end. How about that? Maybe choice and gala. All right, here is 2018 limited football. Jason, who won last week? Really?  You were tied for second. All right, that's Sean's first good week. I mean, you're not an expert like me and Ted. Winners, winners of the pool. There's Vaughn Miller to 25 and Saquon Barkley rookie phenoms just to rally 49 out of 99 for Chris Maxwell and the Giants. Yeah, right? It looks like a Chargers logo. That Rand logo looks like a Chargers logo. It just doesn't make sense. All right, we've got Juju Smith-Schuster and behind him is Mike Kasicki. Two-color patch and on-card autograph. 249 out of 299. That'll be for Miami Colton with the Dolphins. Redemption on the back? Any guesses on this redemption from 2018? I'll do this no huddle first. Feels bad for Saquon on the Giants. Man, I feel, I don't feel that bad. I feel like the Giants kind of had a little bit of a team. You know, they had like, they had Daniel Jones, decent. Could, I mean, we don't really know what the story is on him, you know, but I think he has a high ceiling.  They got Saquon Barkley, so they had like some pieces. You know, sorry, I lost my voice too much yelling yesterday. But anyway, I feel like a little bit of defense kind of get them to a position to maybe threaten in a few years. That injury, I think, really kind of set him back, though. Chris Richards isn't saying the Texans quickly turning to the worst even football? I think the Jets might, Jets and Giants might have something to say about that. Darius Leonard. I don't know why Darius left around. Oh, the redemption. It's Karrion Johnson, rookie patch autographs variations. That's gonna be for Detroit. That'll be for Karen and the Lions. Carry on my way, what's going on? What's going on with the Texans, Chris? Well, they got rid of Bill O'Brien. I think that was one of the big deals. So maybe this year is just a weird transitional year getting out of the Bill O'Brien era into a new era. He's came down purple. Disco for Robert and the Chargers. Van Jefferson. Disco parallel. Antonio Gibson. Got an NFL debut, Chase Clayfull. He's been a debut season for him. Steelers, Corey. Antonio will go to Levi and then the Washington football team. No O-Lines, Chris. We have no O-Line. Defense is horrible. What do they gotta do? I feel like there's Mercury Morris. Well, Dolphin going to Colton.  Oh, right. Cause they gave away those picks for cooks, maybe? David Johnson. I saw a crazy, and I think this was maybe just for clicks on ESPN, but someone mentioning, do they trade JJ Watt? I feel like maybe yes, but I feel like you can't really trade JJ Watt though. It's Drew Locks, 75. Fans would riot, I feel like. Oh my God, yeah. If he gets traded, he does have to go to Pittsburgh. All three brothers playing together. There's our Joe Burrow. Mose, Joe Burrow. Bass going to Stephen Rushing. And we got Justin Jefferson, six out of 10. Nice one for the Vikings. That'll be for Oliver. No? Chris Maxwell loves Bill O'Brien.  I feel like Bill O'Brien will get a chance somewhere else. Yeah, let's do this. But I don't know. I think, when's the last time, there we go. When's the last time like giving a coach like GM power as well, head coach GM power as well. When's the last time that worked out in recent memory? Like in the last 10, 15 years, I feel like the game of football is just too complicated, too complex now to be a head coach and the GM. But maybe he lands somewhere as a head coach elsewhere, but just as a head coach. Just focus on that. I don't think he's gonna get hired as a GM anytime soon. Pittsburgh might go to the bowl this year. Who are they playing this week? Pittsburgh's playing. Ooh, ooh. Pittsburgh, yeah, Ravens, right? Steelers at Raven. That's a great game. Who does everyone have in that one? Ravens are the home favorites. Minus three and a half. Little hook there could be interesting. All right, here's the mega box. There's TJ Watt, we were just talking about him. Jordan Love for the Packers. That'll be for Adam. Yeah, see, that's why maybe you just trade away a lot of guys, Chris Richardson. Try to re-accumulate some draft picks. Try to rebuild that team. Sooner or rather, I mean, it might as well just do it sooner rather than later. There's Yandere Swift for Karen and the Lions, because you don't wanna waste the better part of Deshaun Watson's career, just blow it up.  New coach, new GM, just tear it down to build it back up ASAP. No need to waste time, just do it. Easier said than done, but at least there could be some progress. All right, there's Gala football right here. This is Gala from 2019, 2016, sorry, upside down nine. We got 15 out of 99, Curtis Martin, Jets edition going to Josh, a redemption, a Travis Kelsey autograph, nice. Eight out of 25 starring roles signatures on card auto. Travis Kelsey heading out to Robert Runkel and the Chiefs. We got Jared Goff, autograph, rookie autograph, cinematic signatures. That is 39 out of 99 heading out to Jean and the Los Angeles Rams. There you go, Rams having a nice season. And there's Christian Hakenberg, two color patch, two out of 10, Jets, Josh. And the redemption is gonna be Artie Burns, cinematic rookie signatures, Artie Burns, Steelers? Back in 2016? Yes, Steelers, he's a bear now on IR. But that'll go to Pittsburgh, that'll be for Corey. Put the sticker a little high here. And look at this, a free top loader too. All right, so that was Gala and now we're here. We're here folks, we're here at Choice. Mosaic Choice, this is pretty nice. One card out of here could easily save your break if you're having a bad break. One card out of here could easily make a good break even better, I don't know where the autograph spot is. I don't know, we'll just roll with it. All right, we got Kevin King for the Packers. There's the autograph. Jake Luton is your choice autograph. That goes to Matt Buckler and the Jaguars. Jaguars, Jaguars. We got Red Leveon for the Jets, Josh. We'll see how he does in Kansas City now. We've got Red Darien Tenevin, 34 out of 80. For Mike Krasinski and the Titans. I thought this was gonna be Joe Burrow, for instance, Tyler Boyd, 58 out of 80. I'll be for Cincinnati, Stephen Rushing. This is the guy that Chris Maxwell was talking about. They only have more autographs than James Morgan. He wants to have dinner with him. I think he might be used to signing checks. Signing cards, signing checks, slip that right over there. James Morgan for the Jets, Josh Melton. Here's a good one to hang on to. Jordan Love, I think Adam, right? Adam Cupperman with the Green Bay Packers. Is this future, Aaron Rodgers, is the future of the organization here? Hold on to that. Once he emerges, he busts this out. Oh, and, and the AJ Dillon for you. So good finish for the Packers. Could be Love and Dillon in the future. And there you have it, boys and girls. That was a pretty nice break. Nice 14 box bow nose football mixer. We did not see a lot of bow Jacksons. But we are giving away an autograph full-sized Raiders helmet along with the randomizer for this. So, let's go grab a new list right here. No points in this too, which is nice. A couple lists here. All right, so the first one is gonna be the Quad Relic. That's gonna be Kenneth Dixon Baltimore, Devonte Booker Denver, Tyler Irvin Houston, and Paul Perkins, New York football giants. And everyone has a shot at the helmet. So from Benjamin all the way down to Levi and everyone in between. Put you in this list right here. Got a shot at it. One dice roll for both lists. It's gonna be five and a six, 11 times. Team on top here after 11, one, two, 10, and 11th and final time. After 11, team on top is Baltimore. So that's gonna go to Jose with the Ravens. He'll get this Quad Relic right here to 49. All right, and the big giveaway for this mixer right here. Five and a six, 11 times. Name on top gets the helmet. One, two, 10, and 11th and final time. After 11, big thanks everybody right here. Thank you for getting in. And congrats to Levi Johnson. I don't know if I called your name out very often, Levi. You had the Washington football team. Yeah, I don't think there's anything too crazy for them. But you got a Bo Jackson helmet. It is. We got a little, let me show you on this camera here. You got a little Ridel, Ridel, Ridel hang tag right here. Where's his autograph? There's his autograph right there, Bo Jackson. It's pretty awesome. We got the Beckett sticker on the back here. We have a Beckett card. Usually they include a card here somewhere too. It's pretty sweet, right? Put it on the Raiders one? Yeah, the Bo Jackson. Oh, it was in a box. I thought it was that. Yeah, the chrome one's pretty nice. And the card is right there. Have you done the second MV here or no, right? Not the second MV, right? You haven't done the second one yet? Oh no, I have not, no. And there you go, boys and girls. That's a nice helmet right there. Nice finish to the break. Set that over here. Let's do a quick little recap. Yeah, I agree, Chris. It was a nice break. Nothing too insane. But I mean, nowadays with these rookie cards being so valuable, a lot of different rookie cards that we pull will have a lot more weight, a lot more value than it did in previous years. We spanned a lot of different years in this. There's the Gardner Menchew, Harrison Smith Game Day signatures. All these parallels from choice are really nice. The Goff Rookie Auto, Travis Kelsey on card, that's a 10, the Joe Burrow, old school guys, new school guys, on card guys, goose guys, Pittman Jr., the E-Lair, Clyde Edwards E-Lair right here in the Joe Burrow. It was pretty sharp. And then of course, the Devin DuVernay as well. And there you go, ladies and gentlemen, that was the quick little recap for the 14 box. Bow knows, football and mixer, awesome helmet. That was a lot of fun. The mixer was a lot of fun. Thanks for hanging and chatting with us. Sick with us all, NFL season long. We'll talk football, break football. We'll do all this sort of fun stuff. I'm Joe, I'll see you next time for the next one. Bye-bye.


The First Item of Business this afternoon is a statement by Humza Yousaf on Scotland's ferry services. The minister will take questions at the end of his statement, so there should be no interventions or interruptions until then. The Scottish Government's lifeline ferry services are essential transport links that make a significant contribution to the social, cultural and economic wellbeing of our nation. The Scottish Government clearly recognises our responsibility to ensure that essential services remain at the heart of island and remote communities. That is clearly evidenced by our record levels of investment in the order of £1 billion in vessels, ports and services since 2007. We continue to seek innovative ways to protect and improve the delivery of ferry services in the future. That is why I am today announcing a review into the legal policy and financial implications relevant to the future procurement of those services and setting out my reasons for doing so. Members may be aware, or have first-hand experience, that, since the turn of the century, successive approaches by that and previous Administrations have been made to the European Commission covering a range of questions on our obligation to tender ferry services. In 2005, the previous Scottish Executive published its own in-depth report into the consideration of the requirement to tender, which ruled out alternatives to tendering. In 2009, the commission concluded its own in-depth investigation into Scottish ferry service subsidies. The conclusion was that the service did not meet the alt-mark criteria and were therefore covered by state-aid requirements. With the exception of the Gwric Dunwun route, the aid was considered compatibly, only due to the tendering of the services. The decision also concluded that the Gwric Dunwun route had to be subject to competitive tendering. In 2012, Transport Minister Keith Brown wrote to Commissioner Almunia encouraging a further review of the requirement to tender ferry services. The commissioner at that time in 2012 replied, and I quote, "...the commission is, however, convinced that a transparent and non-discriminatory tender for public services is the best way to ensure that the public is afforded the best possible services in terms of both quality and price at the lowest possible cost of the taxpayer." Consequently, the commission strongly advocates the widest possible use of open and transparent tendering procedures when public authorities and trust companies with a public sector obligation. The commission emphasised similar points in the published guidance on the maritime habitat regulation, dated 22 April 2014, in paragraph 5.4.2. It states, "...launching an open tender procedure is, in principle, the easiest way to ensure non-discrimination." It also added, "...the commission believes that a direct award fails to respect the principle of non-discrimination and transparency enshrined in article 4 of the regulation." The commission therefore consistently advocated the widest possible use of open and transparent tendering procedures when public authorities and trust companies with a public sector obligation. That view has consistently been based on the premise that tendering satisfies the requirement of EU legislation, applying to ferry services, including the maritime habitat regulation and, importantly, state aid rules. We take very seriously our obligations under European and domestic law. We are confident that we satisfy all European and domestic requirements for public ferry service contracts. That has been achieved through a number of successful competitive tendering processes over the past 10 years or so, including, of course, most recently the award of the Clyde and Hepadies contract to CalMac ferries limited last year. That award was made in full compliance with the legal requirements and all the advice available to us from the commission at that time. The tendering of those services has guaranteed their future in a programme of investment improvements up until 2024. Following a debate in this chamber in the 25th of November 2015, Derek Mackay, the then Minister for Transport and Islands, wrote jointly with the RMT, Tread Union, to the European Commission on 1 April 2016, the letter followed numerous approaches by the Government to seek the commission's view on the legal requirement to tender the Clyde and Hepadies ferry services. In particular, it sought clarification on the application of the technical exemption, which was argued that it could potentially allow the services to be operated by an in-house provider without the need for competitive tendering. The commission responded in the 22nd of April 2016 formally, stating its view that the technical exemption should be capable of being applied to the maritime cabotage regulation under strict conditions. That could, if those conditions were met and subject importantly to compliance with stated requirements, allow for the direct award of ferry services contracts to an in-house operator. That response, when considered alongside the commission's published guidance, suggests that it is appropriate that we now take time to consider further that important issue. I should emphasise that the commission's response, which I will share in place in Spice so that Parliament and members can see for themselves, makes clear that, in addition to meeting the particular requirements of the technical exemption, any award in his operator must comply with stated law and the altmark criteria should be considered in that regard. I welcome the commission's response and have used the time since to consider the complex legal and policy questions that it raises. Furthermore, the commission's response was received during preparations for a live tender exercise for the next group during contract. We had already, for example, concluded the pre-qualification assessment and were in the process of informing the participants. It was therefore necessary to give careful consideration to the full legal and policy implications for the tendering process and the current contract before making a public announcement. I have therefore concluded that a policy review should be conducted to identify and consider in detail the legal policy and financial implications that are relevant to the procurement of ferry services, including the possible application of the technical exemption in light of the commission's letter, the requirement to ensure compliance with stated rules and all other legal policy and financial implications that are relevant to alternative models for procuring ferry services, including examining the organisational structure and the governance of David McBrain Limited and Caledonian Maritime Assets Limited. The review will draw on expertise from across Transport Scotland and the Scottish Government to look objectively at the options and make recommendations to ensure that ferry services are affordable, sustainable and provide confidence to ferry users, communities and employees going forward. Our overriding priority is to provide the best service possible within the framework in which we are required to operate, and the review will consider a range of options. Given the number of strict tests that relate to the application of the technical exemption and stated rules, all of which would need to be satisfied, no assumptions should be made on the outcome of the policy review. Nothing can be ruled in or out at this stage. However, while not prejudging the outcome, should the review conclude that it would be possible to apply the technical exemption and meet stated rules, we would, as the Government, be minded to provide ferry services through an in-house operator taking account of the communities that they serve. That would, of course, be subject to wider policy and value for money implications and, indeed, importantly and, crucially, the views of those communities affected. I am, of course, fully committed to keeping everybody in this Parliament and chamber informed about the purpose and progress of the review, including ferry users, local communities, local authorities, ferry operators and trade unions, as well as members of this Parliament. As a first stage in that engagement today, I will be speaking and writing to a broad range of key stakeholders. I will also be arranging an early meeting with trade unions, in particular the RMT and Dave Stewart MSP, who has previously raised those issues with ministers, but also with other MSPs, whom I know will have constituency interests, to discuss the purpose and the remit of the policy review. The reviewer will require a specific and urgent focus on the current tendering of the good at the noon services to be closely followed by the implications for the planned tendering of the northern Isles ferry service. It is less time-pressure to reach a definitive future position on the Clyde and Hebride services that current contract of course has seven years to go before it would be subject to any potential further tendering requirements. The reviewer will clearly require detailed consideration to be given to a number of very complex legal, policy and financial issues, and that will take time. I am therefore announcing a pause in the current good at the noon tendering exercise to allow time for the review to be conducted. That will require an extension to the current good at the noon contract in the order of around nine months, which we have concluded would be justifiable under regulation 72.1e of the public contract Scotland regulations 2015. Transport Scotland will work closely with the current operator, our Gail ferries, limited on arrangements for the intended extension. The reviewer will also consider what, if any, extension period may be justified and necessary for the northern Isles contract, which is due to end in April 2018. At this point, I would like to assure the people, businesses and communities who rely on our ferry services of the continued delivery of safe, efficient and effective services, and that continuity of service, delivery both now and in the future, remains my top priority during the course of this review. The final report will set out recommendations for the sustainable delivery of ferry services in the future and will be made available to Parliament and published on the Transport Scotland website. Ministers will engage closely with key stout holders when considering the full findings of the review. The final decisions on the best approach to improve the future delivery of ferry services will be based on objective and robust analysis of the evidence provided by the review. Our lifeline ferry services are essential to the economic and cultural life of our islands and remote communities. I would ask that Parliament joins me in supporting the pause and the tendering for good at the noon contract and also the policy review and the best approach to delivering our essential and iconic ferry services now and into the future. We will now have about 20 minutes for questions. If members wish to ask a question, I would encourage them to press their request-to-speak buttons now, and I call on Liam Kerr to ask the first question. I thank the minister for advance copy of his statement today. We welcome the acknowledgement by the Government of the concerns raised in multiple quarters over the recent competitive tendering process for the Clyde and Hebrides contract last year. I think that we can all welcome that the Government has taken action on this and sought clarification from the European Commission. However, there will be genuine concern at commercial ferry operators on seeing this statement today. They will see the Government's stated preference for an in-house operator as a direction of travel that may ultimately see an end to competitive tendering for our ferry routes and or automatic preference to any such operator. Should the review find that it is possible to apply the technical exemption and meet state aid rules, would that mean that there will be an end to competitive tendering of ferry services in Scotland? If not, can he guarantee that any such tendering exercise will not be preloaded in favour of an in-house operator? Can he also today give an assurance that local groups and stakeholders will have a chance to input into this review to ensure genuine feedback into what is affordable, sustainable and provides confidence to users, communities and employees? I thank the member for the question in the constructive manner in which he asks it. If I can take that last point and give him an absolute assurance that communities will be at the heart of what we are doing in regard to this policy review, their views are incredibly vital and important to forming our future direction on this. I am keen not to prejudge the outcome of that policy review, but I understand why he asked the question that he asks. I would say that if the technical exemption can apply, what we have said is that if it can apply, if it can comply with state aid rules, but, crucially, if communities want it—and I think that that is really important—then the Government absolutely is minded to make a direct award to an in-house operator. It may well be the case that particular communities, even if all the criteria can be met, if state aid rules can be complied with, may well be communities, for a number of reasons that the member highlighted in his question. They may not want to direct the award, they may wish a competitive tender, then we should be open minded to considering what communities want as opposed to what the Government is necessarily minded to do. I do not want to prejudge the outcome of that. I will look forward to hearing from him and his party in the course of that, but I want to give him an absolute assurance that communities will be at the heart of everything that we are doing. Rhoda Grant, to be followed by Kate Forbes. I thank the minister for an advanced sight of his statement. First, I would like to put on record our thanks to the RMT trade union and my colleague David Stewart MSP for their hard work and persistence, not only on behalf of the workers in the sector but also the people who depend on lifeline ferry services. In 2015, Scottish Labour joined the RMT, the daily record and others, calling for the Government to use the technical exemption and reject the tendering process for the Clyde and Hebrides contract. That is why Scottish Labour welcomes the announcement today that there will be a review to look at the legal policy and financial implications on ferry service procurement. Given this review, it is sensible and understandable to extend the current Gwruch Tadunin contract. However, will the transport minister provide assurances that there will be the continuity of employment and conditions for the workforce on that particular route and, if necessary, on the Northern Isles route? Can he also provide an assurance that whatever the outcome of the review that the jobs and conditions will be protected and that the workforce will continue to be subject to 2P protection? Given the timescales on the matter, can I ask the transport minister why it took four months for him to publish the response from the European Commission when he said that his statement was received on 22 September? I thank the member and again I thank him for the constructive tone in which he asked the question. I also put on record my thanks to the RMT and again the approach that they have taken. David Stewart is well for his indifat stability on this particular issue. On the questions that the member raises, I can just give him a short answer that, yes, the rights of workers, the collective bargaining, the continued no compulsory redundancy policy that we have will continue regardless of the policy review, so I can give him that protection. What I would say is that it is very clear from the commission's response, which again, as I said, is available to members through SPICE, it is very clear that we will have to look at the governance and the structure of CalMac and Semal. That is absolutely going to be part of the policy review, so we will keep members involved and up-to-date in that discussion. What I would say also in terms of the fact that we received the response in September in making the announcement today, that is for three very important reasons. First of all, we had to ensure that because this advice was somewhat different to the advice not just received by us, but I should say received by previous executives, including, of course, the Labour-Liberal coalition, because this advice was slightly different. The first thing was and the priority was to ensure that this advice was consistent across all the DGs of the commission. The second and more fundamentally important reason why I had to give time was, of course, if I had made this public announcement as soon as we would receive the commission's response, while a live-tending exercise was going on, all sorts of uncertainty would have been thrown up. I think that the member would appreciate, even though he is a strong critic understandably of the actions that we have taken, that he would understand that procurement legislation is extremely complex. I had to find both the legal route whereby we could halt the current tender, and I think that that is important. I also had to ensure that we had a legally watertight position in order to extend the contract by nine months. That does not mean that there will not be a legal challenge. I suspect reasonably that there may well be, but I had to ensure that we had those legal ducks in a row before making any sort of announcement, so I hope that that gives them the reassurances that they require. Kate Forbes, followed by Donald Cameron. Thank you, Presiding Officer. Can the minister guarantee that the policy review that he announced today will have communities at its heart and ensure the best possible public ferry services to all of our island and remote rural communities who need long-term confidence in their lifeline ferry services? The short answer to that is, yes, that the communities have to be at the heart of that. As I said, I have travelled around the country in this job in the nine, ten months that I have been in this role, and absolutely communities have differing views on how they think lifeline services should be provided, so yes, they will be at the heart of this policy review. Donald Cameron, to be followed by Rhoda Grant. Thank you, Presiding Officer. Likewise, alongside Liam Kerr, I welcome this review and understand the implications of the decision. Representing the Highlands and Islands, I know first-hand how concerned and worried the people of the Cowell peninsula and Danun in particular have been for quite some time about the reliability and frequency of the route. Can the minister assure me that the nine-month delay to the tender will have negligible effect on the future of this service, so that both residents and visitors to Danun can soon look forward to a more robust service? Can I just give the minister the assurance that the continuity of service for me is the absolute top priority? Whether that is in Grick or Danun, the Northern Isles, the Clyde and Hebrides services, the continuity of service is absolutely for not just individuals but businesses, which are so vitally important. I can give him that reassurance. I do not want to prejudge the outcome of the review, but, of course, the immediate focus of that review has to be the Grick Danun service, which he rightly mentions. Rhoda Grant, to be followed by Stuart McMillan. Thank you, Presiding Officer. Can I also welcome the review and pay tribute to David Stewart and the RMT for their tenacity on the issue? Can I ask if the trade unions will be involved directly in the review group and communities further to Kate Forbes' question? Will they also be involved in that group? They all have a stake, and it is only right that they should have an involvement in the group itself. How long is the review likely to take? I will try to provide a succinct answer. The policy review will be undertaken by Transport Scotland, but as the key engagements that we will be engaging with the RMT in straight away, the first meetings that I will look to have on this will be with David Stewart and the RMT, which Rhoda Grant is right to say, have been leading on the issue. In regard to the second part of the question, I can give assurances that the communities who will be involved in the third part of our question are the reason why we have asked for that nine-month extension, which we think is justifiable under 72.1E of the public contracts 2015 regulation, because we think that it will take around nine months for that. If the review kicks up further issues, because stated, it can be quite complex, as members will appreciate that we may have to look again at that timeline, but we are looking to get that review under way as soon as possible in that time scale. I want to remind members that my wife works part-time for CalMac and Gherwick. In the statement, the minister spoke about the current structure and governance of the David McBrain group of companies, which includes CalMac, whose HQ is in my constituency. Can the minister provide some further information on any implications regarding the David McBrain group in my constituency? If I can just give him the reassurance that I have given in previous answers, we do not foresee changes in employees' terms, their conditions, and, indeed, the no compulsory redundancies policy and collective bargaining policies continue to remain as they are, and that will continue throughout the policy review period. I will say that, frankly, it is a part of the policy review because of the commission's response, which I would urge the member to have a look at. It makes it very clear that we will have to examine the governance structure of CalMac. I think that, without prejudging again, the outcome will be looking at more of the management structures as opposed to effects on employees as such. However, as I said, I cannot prejudge any of that, but I will be meeting with the unions as soon as I possibly can in order to give them the reassurances around employees. John Finnie, to be followed by Marie Todd. Thank you. I thank the minister for early sight, the copy of his statement. Welcome the review and indeed support the position regarding Gherwick to Noon. I heard what you said about time frame, minister, but in first acknowledging that it is important that we get it right, would you recognise the enthusiasm that there is to ensure that the beneficiaries of public money in the Northern Isles ferries are the residents of the Northern Isles rather than the private shareholders of a circle? I understand the point that the member is making, and all I can say is just to reiterate that the communities will be at the heart of that. I thank him for his welcome to the approach that we are taking, but communities must be at the heart of that. Having travelled to Orkney, Shetland, it would be fair to say that, for the communities that I have spoken to, they want to know about continuity of service. They want, as they have spoken to me, to see that reduction in that ferry fares, and we have committed to do that and to examine that, and that will not be affected by the policy review. Communities should be at the heart of that. As I said, the Government is minded where the technical exemption can apply, where state-of-the-art drills can be combined with, where communities want it, an in-house provider—a direct award should be made to an in-house provider. Marie Todd will be followed by Tavish Scott. The Northern Isles contract is currently due to end in April 2018. I wonder if the minister can set out what effect this policy review will have on this contract. Can the minister assure the passengers that the continued provision of the Northern Isles ferry service and continuity in service delivery is a top priority of this Government? Yes, I can, and I hope that I have been able to do that throughout my statement and answering those questions, that the continuity of service absolutely has to be my priority and will be my priority and continue to be this Government's priority as well. She is right that the contract would end in April 2018, and the tendering process for the Northern Isles ferry service is due to start in spring. That will not happen because the policy review, of course, will be under way, so already discussions have begun with, say, a quote about a possible extension to that contract and that continuity of service, and, of course, we will continue those discussions at a pace. Tavish Scott will be followed by Jamie Greene. I think that the Chancellor Minister for the statement that he has given to Parliament in the advance copy that we have had in it, on his last point, does that mean, therefore, that it is nearly sure that the current Circle Contract for Auckland and Shetland will now extend beyond next summer? Could he also clarify the position with regard to the fares review, because his Government has promised substantial reductions on ferry fares to the Northern Isles following the 50 per cent cut to the west coast? When will we see announcements on that, and will indeed the Auckland and Shetland see those reductions that have been promised? Lastly, given the possibility of full Brexit, there would be no EU procurement rules. Will the Chancellor Minister be minded to ensure that his review covers that eventuality as well? I thank Tavish Scott again for the constructive nature of the questions. On the extension of the contract, I would say that it would be highly likely that we will have to look for an extension to that contract, because no longer can we start the tendering process and spring of this year will have to wait until the policy review is done. We are already talking to the provider Circle about a possible extension, and I will make sure that he is kept up to date with those conversations. I can also give him reassurances on the work that we are doing to reduce the ferry fares, as the First Minister committed to and as our manifesto committed to. I have always been very clear on that point that it is not tied to the next contract. In fact, if we can bring ferry fares reductions before that contract, we would seek to do that. With that position, it does not change the work of the working group and that respect has not changed. Again, I will keep the member fully informed on the ferry fares reduction. I can give him an assurance that he is, of course, right that the policy review should take into account the possible implications of Brexit. He understands and knows the Scottish Government's position on all that, so I will not rehearse it, but notwithstanding that, yes, the potential impacts of Brexit will be part of the policy review discussion. Jamie Greene, followed by Kenneth Gibson. As the minister is aware, there are currently three services running out of Gwyrwch. Three different routes, three different operators, and three different lines of accountability and governance is described by one local user group as a complete mess. I note with interest that the minister does not want to pre-empt the outcome of the review, but in the same sentence does use language like expressing a preference for an in-house operator. If he can confirm to today and give some commitment to the long-term security of the Cochregan route, because that is very important in this triangle that is currently funded by SPT, it is also more important to reassure the chamber that we do not end up in a scenario where the review outcome gives automatic favour to Government-owned operators at the expense of transparency and reliability to local users. I will try to give him some assurances. The Cochregan issue is a separate one, and I will speak to him perhaps offline or right to the member on that. He knows that discussions between Transport Scotland and SPT have been on-going on the fair funding principle, and in principle we have an agreement to take over that service. That is a slightly separate issue as to what is in the policy review. On his wider question, I can just give him an assurance on the continuity of service. I can also give him an assurance that communities—I think that I know which community group he is probably talking about—the wishes of communities will be very much at the heart of what we are doing. On Government's preference, that is not an inconsistent view at all. I am not prejudging the outcome, simply saying that we have made known what our preference is in that regard. I look forward to hearing from the Conservatives their input into that policy review. Kenneth Gibson, to be followed by David Stewart. After years of extensive engagement and correspondence on the issue under this Government and previous Administrations, what the ministers announced today suggests that the commission's view may have changed in the event of a direct award under the technical exemption. Whilst complex state aid rules will still need to be satisfied, does the minister agree that the review will encourage many to look forward to the strong possibility that ferry service contracts will be awarded to an in-house operator? I would not want to prejudge the outcome of the review, but the member is correct in saying that, of course, commission advice not just to my previous predecessors, Keith Brown, not just in terms of this Government, but, of course, commission advice received by previous executives and Governments has been consistent in that the technical exemption could not apply. Yes, it would be correct to say that the commission's view in that respect has seemed to shift. That does not mean that there are not obstacles still in the way and there are some serious, serious issues that have to be examined. State aid rules, of course, still have to be complied with legal, policy and financial questions that have to be answered, and the policy review will look at them in the fullest possible manner. David Stewart will be followed by Angus MacDonald. Thank you, Presiding Officer. I warmly welcome this afternoon's statement from the minister. Nearly two years ago, following advice from the RMT, I met the European Commission officials to discuss the technical exemption. They said that, in principle, it was acceptable and consistent with previous European Court of Justice cases. Could the minister verify the cost to the public purse of tendering the last Clyde hebedean, Gerrit de Noon and Northern Isles ferry services and, in the future, that could be a substantial saving to be reinvested in public services? Can I say what I said at the beginning of this and, in some respects, pay tribute to the hard work that David Stewart has done on this issue that he's made with me when I first became transport minister on this. I want to thank him for the advice that he's given in that regard. I'll get him the figures and the facts. If he doesn't mind, I'll write to him, but I know that the chief's contract he'll know came at a cost of £1 million in terms of the other contracts that he asked about. If he doesn't mind, I'll give him a written response to that. I can absolutely give him assurance that I'll be looking to engage with him. In fact, we've emailed his office to seek an early meeting with him and with the trade unions to have a discussion on that. I look forward to his views during that policy review. Hailing from the Hebrides has very much welcomed the latest advice from the European Commission on the Tecal exemption and I look forward to the outcome of the policy review. What chance does the minister see that the policy review will result in a means of procuring ferry services other than by a public tender? Again, if I can just reiterate, I wouldn't want to prejudice the outcome of the review. I've given an indication of where we'd be minded to go as a Government, but if I can just reiterate that point, there are some very serious questions that will take time to delve into from the financial to the legal to the state aid rules and the potential implications of Brexit as well. I think that I've made my position in the Government's position on this in terms of our preference fairly clear. Thank you, minister and members. That concludes


Our man Teddy kegs that every Wednesday folks we talked to Teddy at forty past the hour. You can read Teddy's outstanding Tiger Forex report folks every Monday he puts out a new issue he puts out updates throughout the week when warranted you can check it out under the newsletter tab on the front page of TFNN. It's ninety seven dollars a month folks and you get it for thirty days risk free with a money back guarantee and right now folks you're seeing it we're talking about yields we're talking about the dollar right it's driving so much of this action going on Teddy kegs that good morning good morning Tommy boy it seems like we always got an eventful market when we bring you on on Wednesdays Teddy but it seems like that's par for the course these days where do you want to begin you want to talk a little bit maybe just about what we got yesterday with the move uh... pretty interesting i'm not sure if you listen to the program that we got dollar higher right we got some yield moves in the yield kind of pulls back what do you think of the action right now with maybe the dollar the yields are just the general consensus of what we saw yesterday uh... some huge action following the the chairman's uh... speech and he does it again today sure well i think that yesterday you mean if if you before he started speaking it was an opposite situation the dollar was under pressure you know and yields were uh... i'm coupling back and stuff like that and it looked like it was going to be a different type of day obviously once he started speaking you know i think the biggest thing is that you know if you look at what how the narrative is changing it all just over the past couple of weeks you know uh... the consensus was all about the fed be stopping its hawkish system becoming even possibly dovish at the end of the year you know now they've been proven a totally wrong and that the direction which they've been talking about for months and now they've gone flip side to you know is breaking news breaking news pow things we have too much inflation rates are going to go to the moon now you know i mean i saw projections yesterday that they're looking at all they went from saying no more uh... rate hikes you know to contain that you know what there's gonna be excessive rate hikes you know i was looking at the forecast now they're looking at every meeting to be a half a point to three quarters of a point going throughout the rest of the year i mean i started laughing when i saw that okay i mean that's it talking about a pendulum shift it's so would nonsensical you know my eyes linked a few times when you said that teddy i stuttered right you know so i think that you have a lot of overkill that went on yesterday especially with that kind of stuff you know today i think you're going to see a little bit more of a calm trade until paul speaks again but he's already said what he's he's not gonna say anything different you know it's just gonna be a repeat you know yeah so i mean it's the event for sure yeah so and yields put in a nice high you know back on friday they had a big surge of pulled back you know and you had followed through today i mean look at today the bonds are up to ten years up you know so i mean our our rates going higher absolutely you know but there's this is a profit-taking move right now i would use caution just saying you know that they're gonna see yields raise go up very very quickly you know wait until they pull the trigger you know i mean we know now that the target point for sure is going to be much higher than originally expected just a couple of months ago you know the market will adjust to that you know so but i i wouldn't get too overly you know caught up in it actually today especially nice and it is pretty remarkable man when you look at where we are just in equities and you did a great job just talking about i mean pretty wilds how recently this market was talking about the idea that we would be cutting uh... it's a you get laughed out of the the store right now if you talked about that conversation in meanwhile i mean the markets have some volatility man but since the market has figured out that aspect of things which are the pretty well man i mean even this year we're talking about a range from thirty eight fifty to forty one fifty and we're right in the middle of that range right now and meanwhile we got yields you just talked about fifty seventy five my goodness the market uh... that ever comes to fruition watch out folks four thousand on the s&p is not even close if we start getting fifty and seventy five i don't think that's going to happen right now but who knows where the data goes right teddy it's like right in the data to fight we got a number on friday that blows things away and we got a hot cpi again or something everything's on the table so it's pretty wild and i think you hit the nail on the head there tommy i think that's exactly what's going to happen with these numbers you know they're becoming more and more important this is like the old days which were like when the interest rates start to swing because of these numbers odds are unemployment is going to be relatively low there shouldn't be a big shocker in that number you know so that means more hawkishness with the fed cpi and ppi even if they're not as bad as i expected if they come out even better they're still not going to be good numbers relatively speaking you know so and i think that that's something we all have to really keep in our main focus as far as driving through the markets over the next couple of weeks especially i think one of the things i deal with myself right is this this uh... it's like a human tendency man to think that we've never dealt with inflation so of course it's going to abate you know and i i'm trying to train my own brain you know to say hold on a second like we just had you know zero percent interest rate forever basically and you know right ballpark and everything exaggerating everything and we got generational inflation who says that doesn't go away in a year man and all of the numbers we talk about um... i'm not sure if you heard the call we got hosay from lake is right you know it's like you know ones out there looking for a job that can't get one right now it's like the wage numbers in the adp seven and fourteen percent i just feel like we got a long way to go potentially and we get to find out every month with the data but boy i see a big risk that this thing is a battle um... my dad's been on there talking about dramatically higher rates and you just better be planning for the possibility folks because it's very hard to imagine that this thing just uh... drops to two percent and we're seeing house how much of a struggle uh... not supposed to get sticky at these levels right teddy and boy we're getting sticky if not he actually going up which is remarkable right uh... where else do you want to jump to on currencies can uh... teddy where do you want to go uh... well we've had some nice moves a dollar obviously had a nice spike high yesterday today i think you've got you gotta watch out for it especially with the yields going lower than i think you're probably gonna see a little profit taking in the dollar versus most currencies you know the n i think is really picking into a resistance where it's at the pound actually made a really nice new low yesterday i think you can see some follow-through with that over the next couple of days the euro the euro is trying to hold up i think that one's going to probably be to have the one that's going to have the least likely to hood of having a really good move you know the pound they think is where you're going to see the volatility that the u.s. dollar yen i like it to the long side but i would be very tight with my stops you know because i think that you're you're coming to where you can have a big sharp pull back there and for those listeners that haven't heard you talk about it before teddy see put out the tiger forex report every monday and i know that subscribers i'm pulling up right now they also gain access to a live webinar you did i'm talking about forex strategies and fundamentals i'll pull it up here so they can take a quick peek about a 60 minute webinar that subscribers gain access to if they check out the tiger forex report can you just tell the listeners teddy what you talk about in that webinar and it's what is behind the tiger forex report kind of how you talk about how you put together uh... your newsletter on a weekly basis sure sure well the bit i started off the webinars putting the main components of the variables that are impact currency pricing so we look at yields right off the bat you know we look at the dollar index which gives you a broad basis of how the the major basket of currencies is trading and then we look at that relationship with how it either is in tandem with certain currencies as far as trend or if you have divergence you know and then we look at the yield curves of the bonds you know in the ten year versus other countries we compare the central bank action what they're doing which right now we're in central bank wars it's a very great time to be looking at yields because you know that there's going to be lots of action you know it's not like where anyone sit in their scratch in their head being like gee when's the next time the Fed or the ECB or something is going to make a move well we know pretty much it's on every single meeting you know so we get we get we delve into that and then use that like for instance how that'll drive certain currencies like the euro and the pound you know and then we also integrate oil as well because oil is also affected by interest rates and also the price of the dollar like why is oil retracing right now higher rates more expensive cost of carryover more expensive dollar oil is traded in dollars it's more expensive for oil so you're probably seeing right now a lag in purchasing because of that and that's helping to hold the prices down so things like that is how we look at it folks please check it out in the front page newsletter tiger forks report teddy we appreciate it man we'll talk to you next week sounds good to me thank you


Good afternoon everyone a very warm welcome. I'm sure after a nice meal. It's always a bit challenging The conversation went a little bit beyond that talk that talked about where the future would be beyond the surface transportation side But you know at a very broad level we've heard this for multiple things There are going to be five key drivers as we think of where the future mobility is right It's about being electric about connected about shared about Autonomous and powered by renewable energy and you've heard this multiple times What's interesting is two things one is in the last few years There's been tremendous progress in each of these verticals Independently right you've got renewable energy at a price. That's under three rupees You're electric vehicles that are really making business sense today And you see connectivity in almost everything you do people you share transportation all the time But what would be key what's going to be very big going forward is at the intersection of these active it of these five key Pillars that come together and what would that do in terms of the future? So let's think about this if you look at electrics, they're probably around 10% more efficient overall from an energy consumption by having better Power trains lower drag rolling resistance. You'll get a 10% lower cost You then say I'm going to use renewable energy. I could probably reduce the cost by another 10% Then you say hey listen, what about if I do shared mobility? We get a 20% improvement in performance Then you start to say what if I remove the driver from the equation? There's another 20 30% cost reduction and what if I get true connectivity if You know a hundred thousand of us want to go from this side of town to white field and you're truly connected You can get another 10% efficiency So what does this mean that by 2030 we could get transportation to probably be 30% as expensive And where does today we could look at everything of course being green would be hygiene and also it would be completely Energy-clean right through the ecosystem This is a fairly big transformation that you're going which is a combination of technologies and business models That's going to get us there here right and it's across platforms. That's going to happen Which would transform how we think of mobility here? so what's really Driving at least the first piece of a you know road transportation or service transportation in India You know, we're all aware that's you know our Transportation is seven percent of our GDP today. This is a huge amount from an auto industry And almost five, you know four to five percent of a manufacturer fifty percent of a manufacturing GDP in the country So from an industry point of view, it's very important for the country if you think of course from climate change and from Energy point of view where we are importing, you know, eighty ninety billion dollars of oil. It's very critical that we address these issues So here's an opportunity as we think as a country of how we can address all these three pieces in a meaningful manner And I think connecting energy with mobility is going to make a huge impact In the years to come for example, if we were to fast forward to 2030 and just take for a second That every vehicle is electrical very hypothetical We won't be at a state by 2030 where every electric every vehicle will be electric Which is also the past fleet India would need around 300 gigawatts of renewable energy, right? And we're planning by 2030 to have around 600 gigawatts of renewable energy So theoretically we could power the entire surface transportation of the country by complete renewable energy on this front Of course from when you generate energy to when you use it there will be gaps So you'll need storage in other mechanisms, but that's a very important perspective Or why you can attack both energy and mobility in one space and the impact What would that mean in terms of size? That's probably less than point five percent of Rajasthan covered with solar panels I would do that for you, right? So and it it's available at under three bucks a unit which means it makes business sense for someone to look at it So transformation is can be very huge for us as a country in the next seven years as we think of integrating energy and mobility Now the global markets as you these as you know, it's it's been 10 million this year for passenger vehicles, right? This last year sorry 22 and 23 supposed to be 17 million, right? India also for the first year crossed a million vehicles Which is which is great and I see a lot of people here in the thing who was responsible making that happen And congratulations to all of you to me to be part of that journey to accelerate India's vision here But scooters for the first time last month on you know exceeded 5% So getting to 80% the next five six years is a real is a very much a reality in Three-wheelers loaders. We've crossed, you know, 36% passenger over 50% So by 2025 to be 90 95% electric on three-wheelers very much a reality, right? If I think of cars, they've been slower But if I look at Shared transportation and taxis in the last one year it's grown 6x So if you think of the trends of what you're going to see Shared will be very big driven first to drive adoption and then slowly move to personal mobility But it shared it makes business sense in buses. We've done well The country's trying to get its first 7,000 buses on the road and it's putting out a tender for 50,000 buses The area we haven't done a lot is on trucking But interestingly, it's 2% of our fleet, but 40% of the energy we use in the country so we've got a lot of work to do on the trucking industry and Given the current pricing with the right business model Trucking can actually be cheaper than diesel So I do believe that in the years to come you would see a large transformation on the trucking industry, too So in many ways you're looking at some of these going faster than others But there will be a big push across the entire industry on electrification throughout here So if I look at therefore the mobility landscape and say Where are the areas that there could be focus of things that we could look at or how would the larger picture be? Well, it's given that electric mobility is clean I think there will be a next step to how you think of electric mobility from a cleanliness point of view It's going to be thought both from a well-to-wheel point of view and a cradle-to-grave point of view So from a well-to-wheel point of view is how quickly can we integrate renewables to enable to have our reduction, right? How quickly can we further make our powertrains more efficient to make sure that we're even lower of energy consumption? On a cradle-to-grave perspective, how do we limit the use of raw materials to enable us to go further? For example, when you look at a battery swapping option, you may use half the battery and your battery life is 3x You may use one sixth the lithium in its total life cycle, right? And then you can do reuse and then recycle So it's important that we start thinking clean beyond an electric vehicle is clean But how do we take the next steps as we think of both cradle-to-grave and well-to-wheel emissions in the space, right? The other part from a consumer point is going to be complete convenience, right? It's about that seamlessness that consumers want, right? A lot more people would take the metro if they knew They could get a vehicle from their home to the metro station in an air condition or whatever Transportation they'd like and as soon as they reach a metro station, a vehicle is ready to take them to work If that seamlessness is available, the convenience factor would increase and of course people adopt it So there's a large role of how do we think of digitization at scale on this front, right? And I take that one step further on the efficiency side, right? If we look at today probably We could do the same transportation the country by using around 40 to 50 percent of the assets we have So think of what that would do to congestion if we could use the same Move the same number of people and goods around with half the assets And that's all around the efficiency of of transportation that we could have and how we look at data connectivity So these two pieces Need us as a country to create a sort of new mobility platform what API did UPI did excuse me to to the industry from a payments gateway The mobility platform has an opportunity to create humongous entrepreneurs and businesses that could start to leverage this because if we reduce that and Optimize this part of the equation, right? Then the impact is huge from a congestion from an energy and from a cost point of view And that's an area which we have to first put away our own independent company goals and think of the larger picture And if that picture is going to grow everyone's going to grow with it And that's going to be an important piece as we think of the larger piece around this Safety needs to be just almost taken as hygiene and granted and we had a wake-up call earlier this year With a few safety issues to be honest with you They were far less than if you take the equivalent of gasoline vehicles for miles done We just get a lot of attention on the first page of newspapers But that wake-up call has created a set of new regulations and honestly those new regulations Are more advanced than even Europe or US? I think half the cars from products made from they would probably fail the Indian regulation if they came here They're applicable to them. So it's been pushed to the limit But the idea is that safety has become important, but why do we need? Policy to do that, right? And how wise why aren't we inherently thinking? That when we build products, we have to be responsible for them and we have to have a safety in that culture Has to be far more ingrained in everything we do a sense of responsibility in everything We do here has to inculcate as you're trying to take a transformation In a new energy space on this front, right? Affordability is the key part if you want to have sustainability No affordability if your vehicles cost 20% more your market is point zero one percent that it's cost neutral It's point one percent twenty percent lower. We have an infinite market and We are breaking this paradigm in some segments and we're seeing that the one segments that you're breaking it Clearly the market is going very quickly So affordability in everything we do and I don't mean low cost I mean using technology and business models to create affordable and value conscious solutions for consumers, right? And that's an area where India can play a large role on this front The last thing is around scalability of solutions. We have to You know, we're caught off guard the kind of climate change challenges are quite big We can't take a pace that has taken 20 30 years to do it We have to accelerate this in the next five to seven years, which means the scalability of our solutions And organizations have to be at a level that are very different to rethink this Almost go to the computer world and other industries to see how well they did it and and use those Analogies as we think on mobility when we look for this So what's the opportunity ahead for all of us as we look at this entire space here? Well from an auto industry At a product level, you've got the two-wheelers. You've got the three-wheelers. You've got all of that The industry by 2030 would be 350 billion dollars in India, right? So it's a huge space that we look at it But the other places would be custom-made vehicles which are India centric and Shared mobility solutions which would play a large role in addition to the standard products that we today already have in the marketplace You know 50% of an electric vehicle's bill of materials is is is different now going forward, right? That by 2030 would be around a 75 billion dollar opportunity The auto component industry today in India is 2.3 percent of our GDP So it's a very large amount if you start to think about what this transformation It is which means everything from motors controllers You know charges DC DC converters air conditioning systems thermal management batteries The whole list of things that are going to be new are going to come through here And and we can't undermine the fact of how big part of our GDP this entire thing is and the impact It's going to create if looked at well The third is new mobility solutions would probably constitute 15 percent in addition to this piece, right? And these new below mobility solutions are going to be around a battery as a service Mobility as a service how we integrate energy? How do we do shared mobility on these new platforms and leveraging this entire area? It's going to be a combination of technologies and software stacks that probably help us enable such new business models, right? In addition to this there will be areas around financing Data-driven financing would be very large which is going to be very easy to do in electrics given the fact They're all connected that you can now relook at how Finance and insurance is going to be done in the future, which would also create a huge on the solution business The fourth area is around energy right energy is going to be replaced by batteries by charging by solar By swapping and all of these new pieces and that by 2030 is an option to be 200 billion dollars, right? Because the energy space is extremely large when you look at this entire industry here, right? So what would be the new ecosystem technologies that then we have to create right? So it's going to be these new solutions around charging and of course battery swapping and v2g will be another big piece on this front connected car and big data analytics We're undermining areas like v2g both from a vehicle or from a swap station But if you start to scale it and say This is a country with 1 million 5 million 10 million 50 million vehicles That is the amount of energy that could come across It could be a huge enabling factor for the country when you look at grid balancing at scale on this front So that would be another big piece and I think what we can't forget is is the global side of it, right? We have to start to think not of just global components But global products and global solutions that we create across this area that we're able to capture the global market on this front You know this market is so so huge that there is not a single silver bullet, right? it's going to be multiple products multiple solutions that are going to coexist and Policies hopefully in the future will be agnostic to them so that we have an environment of entrepreneurship and solutions and Over time they'll settle down to what's right for the market at the early stages, right? Multiple solutions should run because we don't know where they're going to go in the future And they all have different customers and different use cases And that's important to look at that and not be myopic when you're thinking of the future on this front And how does it mean for people and organizations? You know when I think from a team point of view It's a new way of thinking of the future mobility, right? People have to be problem solvers You're not a mechanical engineer electrical engineer or you know a computer engineer you're you understand system solutions You have to go across everything to find answers for this front And that requires us to rethink the kind of organizations we create in the people to enable us to think differently If you're going to look at the future of mobility in the kind of impact it's going to create in the next five to ten years Right. It's also important for us to look across the business models and look at technologies and combine them because that Intersection of business models and technologies is where there will be a lot of disruption happening and we cannot think of them as separate accesses For organizations since you can't do everything. It's about new ways of partnering It's about new ways of getting quicker to market. It's a new ways of looking at Open solutions that come together that you can build on right and and so I think partnerships is going to take a very large role As we look at this and then this whole thing my you know to sense is we got a thing global from day one This is a flat playing field if we don't do it someone globally will come and disrupt us So we might as well do it here and go and disrupt globally on this front And don't think just of the solutions here today if an iPhone is done It can be made anywhere in the world and it's for the same consumer base Similarly the products and solutions we create have to be thought with that mind I heard the buzzer. So I'll just do a parting thought. I've been doing this for over 30 years, right and It's the first time I've seen everything come together Right Oil prices are high cost of renewable energy is the lowest Technology has just gone ways deep way in terms of the pricing of batteries to the technology things there are I Saw a motor the other day, which was 13 kilograms and produced 350 kilowatt of power right that's 500 horsepower. Can you imagine a 13 kilogram motor powering a large truck, right? That's the way the technology is changing on on a solution that we've looked at it, right? Consumer behavior is changing today. They're willing to adopt right and of course policy is so much more favorable today So there's never a better time for us to look at this industry, right? Be part of it make a change a huge change globally and create India as a winner in this space Thanks once again


For months, we watched in horror as provision after provision was taken out of the Buildback Better Act and whatever good remains in it has been watered down to oblivion. So we don't know at this point in time what's going to be in the final bill, assuming it even passes, but one thing that is likely to be included in the bill if it doesn't get killed by mansioner cinema is this. As Common Dreams reports, $285 billion tax cut for the rich is now second most expensive piece of Buildback Better. Jake Johnson explains, a $285 billion tax cut that would predominantly flow to rich households is now the second most expensive component of the Buildback Better Act after corporate Democrats succeeded in slashing funding for a number of key progressive priorities and removing other programs entirely. With the House of Representatives preparing to vote later this week on the roughly $1.8 trillion reconciliation package, The Washington Post reported Tuesday that Democrats planned to raise the cap on state and local tax deductions from $10,000 to $80,000 through 2026 would be more costly than establishing a paid family and medical leave program and nearly twice as expensive as funding home medical services for the elderly and disabled. Over the next five years, raising the salt cap would provide a tax cut only to those who atomized their taxes and paid more than $10,000 in state and local taxes, a group overwhelmingly made up of the wealthy, The Post noted. A recent analysis from the Tax Policy Center says, the tax cut will benefit primarily the top 10% of income earners with almost nothing flowing to middle and lower income families. Sad but predictable. Now in case you're wondering, what's the one thing that costs more than the salt cap reduction? Well, it is universal pre-K and childcare, but there's an issue with that because it's not necessarily going to be universal as it once was because in a write up by Matt Brunig of the People's Policy Project, their childcare plan could actually exclude half of black kids. So we went from a universal program to one that might actually exclude half of black kids and not just black kids, kids of color, more broadly speaking. Now how does this happen? Why is Matt Brunig making this case? Well, you see, rather than just having a federally administered plan, they're going to be distributing these subsidies to states and each state will be able to decide what they want to do with these childcare subsidies. Now, assuming that Republicans are going to be as unreasonable as they usually are and reject these subsidies as they rejected the affordable care subsidies, here's what's going to happen. So look at this map provided to you by People's Policy Project. As you can see, these were the states that rejected the Obamacare subsidy because they didn't want to give Democrats the satisfaction of even having a small victory. So they rejected the subsidy outright, which was totally irrational. Now, assuming that they're going to do the same thing again with this new subsidy for childcare, well, look at the percent of children below the age of three that live in states that haven't expanded Medicaid and look at the breakdown demographically. So if childcare or universal pre-K isn't expanded in these states, you can see that people of color would lose out the most, even though white people would also benefit a lot from this program. But overall, we don't know how these states are going to use their subsidy. We don't know what kind of plans they're going to create, which is why we shouldn't take any chances and just create a universal program, because the universality protects that program and makes it so that way these Republican controlled states can't take these funds and, you know, distribute it in an inequitable way. It just it's so stupid, but this was watered down because corporate Democrats wanted it watered down. But getting back to salt, I want to go to this graphic from the Washington Post. So as you can see, the salt cap increase costs more than the climate change provision, climate change. So they're willing to spend more money on the salt cap increase than they are climate change. I mean, talk about priorities. Now, it also costs more than the one year expansion of the child tax credit and the healthcare subsidies that they're including combined. I mean, this is just comical at this point. Now, going to the next slide here, all of the spending will benefit the top 1% of income earners, meaning that if you make over eight hundred sixty seven hundred thousand dollars annually, you're going to benefit from this bill. Now, if I'm remembering correctly, Joe Manchin said that he wanted to means test a lot of the provisions and build back better because, you know, why waste the money by giving out subsidies or money to families who don't need them? We should really target the most vulnerable. Well, explain to me how this does that. It's just it's absurd. Now, I want to give you some more context when it comes to salt. And this next clip from Steve Ratner on MSNBC, he kind of puts it into perspective for you. He has a very biased take, but his explainer here is actually pretty apt. So the salt cap was actually introduced by Donald Trump in 2017 when he passed his tax cuts for the rich bill. This was included in this. And this video is going to explain why Democrats hate it. So these these these domino blocks, I call them are organized by basically what percent of the residents in each state paid use the state and local tax deduction in past years. And all the way out here, which is Maryland, you can see that they are they were the most frequent users of it. But as you just cast your eye over, you can see that disproportionately the states in which the state and local tax deduction was historically used are blue states, the states in which the state and local state and local tax deduction was not used are historically red states. And so therefore, when the Republicans took aim at this provision, nobody should be confused about elections having consequences. So putting aside his bias, because I'm assuming he would probably personally benefit from an increase in the salt cap. What he's showing here is why Donald Trump did this.  And, you know, this idea is that, well, if we can make these rich people and wealthy people in blue states miserable, then they're going to move out of these blue states, right? And I mean, why do Democrats care, right? They're supposed to be looking out for the marginalized for labor, right? I mean, that's a joke. I'm saying it to be facetious. But why would they care about salt? Well, these top one percent of income earners, you know, you have to keep them satisfied. If you're a corporate Democrat and you don't raise your money through small grassroots donations, because these people who are going to be getting this salt cap increase, they can fund these campaigns. They can write really big checks and poor people can't do that, which is why Democrats are fighting to increase the cap, undo what Trump did. And the reason why it's here in the first place is because corporate Democrats have stated that they will not vote for a build back better if there's no salt deductions. And this is their red line.  They don't care about health care. They care about salt deductions. Now, Biden actually was considering removing salt deductions, like this is in phase 457 of Build Back Better Negotiations. But it was reported that Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer intervened and convinced Biden to keep it in. Come on, man. So, I mean, at this point in time, Build Back Better looks nothing like it once did. We went from six trillion to three point five trillion. Now we're at like one point seven five trillion and everything's watered down. And now we have a tax cut for rich people. And again, that's assuming that it even passes because progressives in the House, except for six, they gave away their leverage. They gave corporate Democrats that infrastructure deal. It's basically a corporate toll road bill. So they voted for that. So now they have no say. They can't make any demands. They can't say, I don't want salt in here. I want, you know, more funding for the childhood tax credit. I want an additional five years. They can't say anything because corporate Democrats know that they can cut it down as much as they want to.  They'll still vote for it because at this point they're going to take what they can get. So, yeah, Democrats are squandering this limited window of opportunity to actually make meaningful changes, take transformative steps to improve people's lives. And they shouldn't just do that because it's the good and the moral thing. They should do it because politically speaking, just delivering for voters is good politics, but they just they don't care.  So, you know, at this point they're probably feeling happy if they get anything. And it's just it's really a sad state of affairs. This is bleak shit, but this is American politics. And it's not surprising to those of us who have been paying attention for quite some time.