Okay, our next speaker is from Munich. His name is Bernd Paison. I'm a French, I have to pronounce it the French way. Paison, I suppose you say that in German. Normally I pronounce it French as well. Okay. He's going to present his own project of a shared cloud environment, if I correct. A peer-to-peer. A peer-to-peer. Okay, so please let's have a big hand for Mr. Bernd Paison from Munich. Okay, my talk is called Cloud Collapses. It looks like you have reached the end. That is me coming from Google Plus shutting down and then they had some hiccups right after the announcement when you load the Google Plus page, you've got an empty page and it said it looked like you have reached the end. So that's what will be true in April. You really have reached the end on Google Plus and you've reached the end on other clouds as well. So what I'm talking about is now what to do with your data. And I want to say one thing about this cloud, cloud collapse that is very commonly used for this kind of problem in the clouds. That is very bad Greek because apocalypse means uncovering. It does not mean any catastrophic. It's just uncovering. And so what we really mean when we want to say it in Greek is a Sinepho catastrophe. Sinepho is cloud and catastrophe, you know what it is that made it in the English as well. So cloud collapse is very bad Greek but it has been translated in the cloud I suppose. So that's how it's going on. So this is a pretty dark picture. There's a tornado and the lightning and the people in the cloud are here in a farm land. They're probably playing farm well in the cloud, in Facebook or so. So the tornado creates a lot of chaos and what do you do? So let's talk about why I'm motivated to do this thing. The internet is bad gateway. We have a lot of travel internet. Let's see what we have kind of political problems. Five years after Snowden we have this EU parliament. They did upload filters, link taxes and of course they want to upload filters to use to filter terrorist contents. I don't know what terrorist contents is but they seem to know. And the Germany wants a cyber administration like the Chinese CAC or CAC as we often say. That is media and if you publish something on the internet you are treated like a TV broadcaster. And that means you have to go through many bureaucratic hoops. That would be a problem if they really do it. And we have all these requests for back doors. Please back door, back door here, back door there, back door in 5G, back door in any chat program, whatever. We have a progress on the political side. The ECHR rules that the GCHQ Dragnex surveillance actually violates your right. And my project NETTO becomes more and more usable and still not finished, still not polished, still not perfect but the top layer is going on. So what is cloud calyps? What goes wrong? So clouds are failing. Here you see a bubble diagram of world's biggest stage of breaches and hacks inside the clouds. And this one starts about 2010. And there were little failures, little failures and it became bigger, bigger, bigger, bigger. And now you have each of the big bubbles is about half a billion of people affected. So yes, the cloud looks darker and darker and darker and is falling apart. What kind of cloud failing events did we have last year? Something like Microsoft bought GitHub so it's not failing but it's now owned by someone we don't like or many people like. That one was easy. You can install GitLab and Dropbox dropped the Linux client except for X4 unencrypted and the explanation is somehow weak.  This is on purpose. Facebook had so many scandals that I have a literature link, made a special look back onto the Facebook scandals. The year in Facebook, it was very terrible. Google Plus had some similar problems in their APIs that affected both users and they are now shutting it down. One of the users was me and so I thought, what to do with my data? So that started this subproject of Net2O. Tumblr deleted all porn which means there's now 1% left of the contents of Tumblr. And yes, the last one is what I just made up. You can't date on Tinder anymore because stating while it's Facebook policy. The second part is correct. Tinder uses Facebook login so they have to somehow get over that. On Facebook it's not allowed to date so when you use the Facebook login to go to Tinder and share your Facebook account and so it's probably also not allowed. So the purpose of Tinder, of course, is not to share cat photos if you have any questions about that. What are the root causes of this cloud failing? One root cause is that the ad-based revenue model is toxic, inherently. I will come to that next slide. The next root cause is the user plus password authentication. That is all these data breaches that is just doesn't work. People pick 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 as password so and they will continue to do so. This doesn't work. And the main root cause is your data is on someone else's computer, not on your own computer. It's not under your control. And it's under control of a big company. As you see in the federated system under a small company a small person is the same problem on a different scale. So why is the ad-based revenue model advice a toxic? So they have, first of all, they have the incentive to keep you on the side and they do that by XKCD3H6. Are you coming to bed? I can't. This is important. What? Somebody is wrong on the internet. So when you have a controversial discussion you will be engaged, you will answer that, you will comment, you will write back and forth and that will keep you on the side. So that's why you don't have the dislike because otherwise if you have a controversial discussion you just hit the dislike button and forget about it but now you have to comment if you dislike something.  The ads don't tell you the truth. The ads want to manipulate it to buy something. And they want to get a lot of information about you because they think then they can sell their ads at a higher price because targeted ads are more expensive than targeted ads and so they want to know everything about you to meet their creepy business model. Make your post about your private things, not the Tumblr and Tinder way but the private parts, the private things, the things they don't know about you easily. And yeah, the participants on this kind of social networks also think yeah, it's a good idea if the people are already weak and easy to influence, I become influencer and make a lot of money. So all this drags the entire social network seen into this ad-based business. When you go on YouTube you have a lot of influencers, maybe you don't because you go to YouTube to see a Chaos computer with your but you don't please don't go to YouTube. Go to the CCC media center. And you should be aware that this is nothing new with the problem. This is in TV, in this is very old the problem. So every newspaper wants to do the same thing with you. So obviously the centralized has problems, it has its good parts because centralized means there's good funding, there's robust hardware, there's a lot of protection against attacks.  And yeah, there is a censorship problem. All these big powers want to censor something. So here in the West we have copyright based censors because our power is the people who own things. And the far east there is political censorship because their political still is more powerful. And then you have all this nipple censorship with some religious issues. And you have this toxic business model that is bad on the centralized. You can go federated, let's say you leave Google Plus for diaspora, many people do so. And it has the big advantage, it's not actually captive because it's small business operating this diaspora server. It's cheap and they don't really need a lot of money to do so. I think the plus for our people told us you need about two cents per month and the user to operate such a thing. So it's really cheap. The censorship becomes more regionally. So in parts of the world, for example in Japan, Lollicon is okay. Lollicon is a dropout of a previous censorship on porn. And the Japanese government said, okay, we messed this up. So we don't censor again because that will move the people to more weird fetishes. And just allow it. This is all fiction. It's just images painted by some artists. Nobody is harmed by these Lollicons. But in the rest of the world, there's this child porn, especially in German. So the musta done, now it's musta done a big search in from this Lollicon community because they use musta done to post their stuff. And these are isolated to Japan. You can't get their feeds on European American musta done service. So you have blacklisted notes, you have regional censorship instead of global censorship. You can't do Lollicon on Facebook or Twitter or so. That is why they came to musta done in the first place. The downside to a funding, underpowered hardware and attack protection is also bad because this are operated by small business or by private persons. And the problem of lack of privacy is the same as above because it's all public postings. And the end of life is, now it's the win of the note admin of a particular note. So if you sign up on a note that goes down next week, you lose all your data just because there may not be even an announcement when they shut down. It's just shutting down. So that possibility is peer-to-peer. So you have full control over your own note and you have privacy because you can limit who can access you. And funding is mostly development funding because operating of a peer-to-peer network is very cheap.  The plus-minor side is that peer-to-peer networks cannot really censor. So the plus thing is, yeah, we don't really want censorship. The downside is it attracts the people who are refugees from censorship first.  That is actually a problem because that shapes the mental image of such a system to people. So when I want to make this a friendly place, nonexistent censorship can be a problem. And also the trolls, the people who, whose communication pattern is so evil that you cannot really tolerate them, they will come very early as well. They get kicked out of the other places so they come as refugees. So you really need to do this full control of your notes so you can kick out people you don't like, kick out content you don't like. Therefore the downside that you have, the upside that you have full control note is mirrored by the downside that you actually have full responsibility for your own note. What do you do on your own? There's nobody helping you as you. So what is about this taking out? Fortunately we have the article 20, you can now legally take out your own data and the big cloud providers are obliged to help you. They sometimes they provide something, lackluster and still the situation we still have is not very good but they have a duty. So if they are too bad unsaid you can talk to some official and have said regulate it. Put a bit more pressure on that. Taking out your data is important.  So what I'm doing is not to owe and if you want to start have a look over this lower six layers or five layers you best go to the 31 3C talk on my home page. I'm talking a lot about the technical details here. I'm talking about the app level details about how to take in your data. Not about so much about the packet formats encrypt things and flow controls, the command language and the distributed data. A bit about that because that is needed for implementing it to our social networks. So today will be more mostly six and seven and not the other sticks. So let's start with the take out.  So you select nothing only the stream data of Google plus and then you have to go through. This is HTML by default. HTML, HTML, HTML you have to change that to JSON because that HTML is not possible what they produce very ugly HTML. Please use JSON. The JSON is not perfect, far from perfect but it's much better than the HTML. So let's look at how does this JSON look like? This is a real posting and you see down here they have this unique code escapes for what's this what's this. So I decoded that for you. This is just HTML angular brackets. So what you have is you have some anchor, the URL where you find it on Google plus until April and later you won't find it anymore. You have a creation time, you have an update time, unfortunately you have no editing history, you have an author which is always four tuples. So you have display name, profile page URL, avatar image URL and the resource name of this posting are just somehow redundant because the URL has the resource as well differently encoded of course but it's the same thing. And the author that is the resource name of the author that is sometimes plain text, you can ask for your own name there or you get that number encoded in something like base 64 or whatever that is. And then you have the content that is very limited HTML because Google plus does not have so many formatting options and you have bold, you have some links in there, let's go a bit down and you have things like link, when you have a link, when you post something, I want to show you this link on the internet, you get the link and then you have all these plus ones, the people who liked your postings, they are like the author, all the details are in there, so you have a lot of redundancy inside of this data base, the chasing thing, you have to make sure that it's just the same person always. And here in this part, in this example, we don't have any comments, but normally you have all the comments, the comments that are lacking the plus ones, you don't get the data of the plus ones and the plus ones are lacking the timestamps, so you don't know when the people liked that, there's the details that are lacking that I want to take out but Google doesn't give me, so let's look at how does the competition do this, if you have Facebook, the timestamps are no longer human variables, they are just seconds, since you mix timestamp seconds, I like that because easy to pass and yeah, you don't have likes and you have comments here, you have a timestamp for the comment, I don't want to scroll, I don't want to skip, so you have your data description and the post double in this case because that's a video and it has a little, oh my presentation crashed, fuck, so let's go back to the Facebook takeout, then we go to the Twitter takeout, a treat you think is a small thing, it's just 280 characters now, maximum, but they have a very complicated way to describe the things inside the treat, so when you see the treat itself, please, the treat itself is just full text here, it's very short, but they give you a lot of metadata about that, they say who is the user ID, what did you reply to, when did you create this, where exactly is the substring you need to highlight as a hashtag or as a user ID and what's the screen name of these people, you can do make some use of that, this is not too bad, it just blows up the archive, but Google plus is much worse with blowing up the archive size, on average, every image you post it there, you get in the takeout three times on average, they don't duplicate these images, they just push them to use three, maybe four times on average, so images are big and people on Google plus often use to post images because it was a great function Google had done right, and so many photographers went to Google plus posting a lot of big images and then they do the takeout, they get the images three to four times. If you do blogging on Google, blogger is still alive but it looks like ten years ago, so they are not doing anything on their blogger and maybe they are shutting down it when they want to, I don't know why they bought it in the first time when they don't do anything new with it, but yeah, that's it, Google, so you might want to take your blogger posting out, it's not, JSON, it's an Ethernet feed, so it's XML, XML is okay, we can't pass XML easily, it has a reasonably metadata structure, not too much, I kept all the actual content and the metadata is okay, so it's not too much and the content is HTML, you have to deal with HTML, that is not a big problem as well, so what do you need to program for this imports, if you want to import the people into the diaspora you have to do the same things as I do, so you need a JSON parser, you need an XML parser, you need an HTML parser and these are all parts which are either easy to write or in many frameworks you just have them, so you need this Schema's first set, you don't want to take anything in, you want to know what you're taking in and in Net2O you need an HTML to markdown converter and diaspora, same thing because modern frameworks often use markdown during HTML and you need a download of the missing parts because the archive does not really contain everything, but in Google the avatar photos of all the thousand people that commented and plus one all your postings, the avatar photos are not in your takeout, only the screen names, so when you have the URLs you can collect them all and you can download all these avatars and what you need to do in Net2O particularly, you need to assign a temporary secret key for all those persons because in Net2O a person is identified by a key, a pub key and you don't know the real person is not importing your data, you are importing the data, so you have to assign a temporary secret key which you hand over later to the person if they join that network, so it's how then does the social network look like it's implemented in Net2O, so you have texts as markdown, no big deal, you have images as JPEG PNG, no deal at all, you have movies as MQB WebM, some deal because all those multimedia streaming APIs like GStreamer or on Android are clumsy and not the way I like them. I want to have open GL as backend, so I want the thing to render into GL texture, that is one of the easier things they can do, so it's not a big problem, if you want to embed it in your browser you need to hope that the browser supports all this stuff, usually it does, so that's what you want as data formats. In Net2O, the structure for something which like a timeline is a chat log in general, so you have a chat app, you can add entries to your chat log, chat logs can be synchronized between instances, if you have duplicates they don't get, they get deduplicated, they don't get copied, if you add new things, the chat log has a mechanism to spread that out through peer-to-peer network, so that is all there, that is working well, and the timeline just is a chat log with maybe one line of your posting and the link to a DVCS project, DVCS means distributed version control system, so like, think like good, but minimize to the features you actually need for simple things, you don't need all this fancy stuff with Git, and it has 100 different commands, and each command has at least 20 different options, now you don't need that. What you need is patches, diffs, merges, forks, that kind of thing is what you need, and that's what I'm giving you in Net2O as well, no need for big things, but small things are very important, you want to edit your posting after you did it, because usually you write your posting, you look through it, you fix all the typos, then you press send, and then magically a typo appears in the title, right in the first word, and you want to fix it because it looks really like you are stupid, and therefore you need a version control system, and yeah, so a DVCS project, how is it structured? It's a chat log again because all this thing is recurring, now it's a check-in log as the chat log, and each check-in has either a patch set or a snapshot, and it is not difficult to build that data structure. Now if there's actions on your postings, actions are typically actions to reshare, you reshare, you add a message yourself, you put it into your own timeline, so that is a fork of the DVCS project, you add another postings to it, and you put your log message into your own timeline, a comment is the same, but you kind of make a pull request, which is probably ended automatically, so you put the log message into the original project, log, and what you can do with that, you can do both, something you can't do on Google+. You can say, okay, I want to write a comment and I want to reshare that comment. Other social networks have these sort of functions where you have ready discussions or they only have the reshare function, something like Twitter where you have comments and reshares look a bit different, but essentially are the same, it's always a postings that refers to the original posting. And you probably want to have likes, so the like is a chat log message into the DVCS project without link or anything, just this one character for the sum up of a plus, what you decided to have as your like, or maybe dislike as well, because you don't want to have the people to comment on bad postings. That's how it's supposed to be structured and what's missing now? Because I'm not finished. The shutdown was announced in October and I wanted to present it here and I wrote code, but I'm not fully finished. I still have things to do. So the bike importer for Google percent is almost finished. It's just not tested with all my 3,000 postings. It's tested with a few important postings where all the challenges are inside. And what I need to write is a bike importer for the other big things like Facebook, Twitter, blogger, if you have suggestions, Instagram, maybe Tumblr, that is all not so difficult to write an importer. The formats are relatively easy to deal with. It's only that you have to put all the infrastructure in place that you can bike import these things. I want to use the avatar to display the user ID at the moment. I just take a screen name. I need a markdown renderer and Net2O, but that's what you see here is a presentation using the user interface for Net2O. So actually there's not much to do here. This markdown is very easy to pass and the rendering is already in place and works. We are movie players that need to look nice. If it doesn't look nice, the people will not post your photos on the social networks. That is one of the problems I have with the diaspora. The background maybe is okay, but the display does not look like Google Plus or polished. It needs to be polished if you want to have photographers inside. These are people who think visually have artist's mind and they don't tolerate when it's ugly. They just don't tolerate it. They don't come to you. That is why they didn't come to Facebook. Facebook's album viewer is just too ugly for these people. The key handover to contacts needs to be programmed. The infrastructure is there, but it needs the actual details needs to be programmed. And I need to mark this important key as non-trustworthy. They are not the original person, not the real person and all the content that is coming from this person is not authentic. It's coming from Google. They could have messed up with that in any possible way. You don't know. So in Net2O, every chat message, every posting is signed by the person who did it. It's authentic. That is where the good crypto system does. It ensures authenticity. It ensures your privacy because it's encrypted. It ensures that it's integrity because the hash is correct and it's authentic that it's really coming by the person who controls the secret key. But here the important key is not controlled by the person who owns that posting. So it's not authentic. It's not trustworthy. And I don't have any mechanism for that at the moment because normally in a secret secure system you know only the person who has the key can sign it. Here it's not the case. So the last part, I'm good in time. The last part is the non-technical problems. The one non-technical problem if you move from one community to another is what to do with your contacts. If you lose an oil you are in this two user Google Plus style ghost town. Now Google Plus wasn't really a ghost town but it didn't have so many people inside to look for them. But when you don't get your contacts over you are in a ghost town.  What's the point of a social network with only one person? No point. So a related problem is how to make social networks nice places. And the ad-based revenue is actually working against that. So they don't want to make it a nice place.  That is a very thin limit. They have to dance on that volcano. And the third non-technical problem is how do I fund Net2O? And at the moment I fund Net2O by using my technology, especially the user interface, technology to get some contracts. Totally unrelated to peer-to-peer networks but interesting contracts and maybe I should think of some other way of funding it. I don't know. When a lot of people use it each person needs to give only very little money to fund it or maybe only a few persons need to give some money and most of the people can use it for free. That is the ideal world. I don't want to sell a big thing because that would give me that toxic kind of business model. So I'm done. You have literature and links. The most important, at least, the other one likes XKCD was embedded in the presentation when you want to know more about Net2O, you go on my home page, watch previous videos, read some documentation. If you want to know what these biggest data breaches are really, here is the link. And if you can read German and you want to see how many breaches of those were Facebook only, they're on timeline. And that's the QR code of my Net2O key in the inverted format because I had to shift to night mode here with my presentation, all slides dark. Normally that is inverted and the cameras do a better job when everything is bright and not dark. So we have time for questions and answers. Well, thank you, Bernd. Wow. Thank you. Okay. We still have about 10 more minutes. Sorry, I have to do this because I don't see against the light. Are there any questions? The mics are open. Yeah. Yeah, I think. Oh, there we are. Speaking to the mic, please go right to it like I'm doing. It's okay. Yeah. I have one question regarding the security of the node because you mentioned the security of the big central model, I must rely on the operator, on the decentralized, I must rely on the administrator of the POT, but on the small Net2O, I must rely on my own. Yeah, that's what I said. It means responsibility, but the attack vector on your side is always there. So if you go to Facebook, to Google+, your own computer can always be hacked. That attack vector does not go magically away because you go to the cloud. So on your side, I have to take care with my implementation that it's robust and secure and that you can use that as normal person without having a too big attack vector. But the attack vector never goes down to zero. Some invimate can come in and compromise your laptop first, install a key logger and the keyboard and then in the second visit, use that key logger to extract the password for your hard disk and then decrypt your hard disk and install different programs. That kind of things is totally out of reach for me. That kind of breaches that is in your responsibility, but that is an attack vector that can be done anyhow. So that is why they have this backdoor, this Trojan horses, the state Trojans they want to install on your laptop and your smart phones. That kind of thing, other people have to fight. That is not communication on the network, that is your device security. And that problem is always persistent. That does not change when you use a big cloud. It just makes it easier with the big cloud because now you have this big company which has to comply to all kinds of laws in the region. When you get an NSF national security letter, Google has to collaborate. They are prison partner, Facebook is prison partner, Twitter is prison partner, Microsoft, Apple, they all have to collaborate. But you as a normal person, you don't have to collaborate. They won't ask you. They will break into your computer, maybe you can do some things to prevent that. Other people may give talks here to help you, but that is out of my reach. And that is not changing when you change from big cloud to small cloud to peer to peer. That's not changing. Yeah, as they say. The network is not secure, but your computer is your business. Yeah.  I have a question. How many, how big is your crowd until today? At the moment, it's all still in small development. I have a few testers. We regularly use the chat app to chat with each other. There are four to five people who are regularly. On my contact list, I have about 30 people who tried it. So it's small. At the moment, it's really small. And to stabilize that, it's okay because my testers still find bugs and send me reports and keep me busy. And I want organic growth. So I don't want to, the worst nightmare is when I'm ready in April and all of Google Plus, all 300 millions to users come in. That would be too much. So grow, slow, get the technology robust and stable and then grow organically. I don't want to be the fastest growing network in the world. That would be very difficult to handle. In French, they would call that umbrella de l'échec, embarrassment of riches. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Okay. Any more questions? The mics are open. No, well, in this case, as I understand it, you're happy for beta testers, aren't you? Yeah. So if you feel free, there's a stream. You can always, if you don't have your camera with you, you haven't taken it down. Always look at the stream. And I'm on the table right over there on the corner. Just over around here next to the stage. When you have questions to me, you don't want to talk in public. Go there. Right at the corner with the robot playing and the LED lights and just there. Okay. Let's have a big hand for Bear Paison.


The following is a presentation of TFNN Trade what you see With Larry Pezzavento Toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER> now Larry Pezzavento Okay, looking good Billy Ray feeling good Lewis. That's a total lie We're having lots of trouble here in Tucson with data and internet connection folks So if I lose you there's nothing I can do about it It's been off and on all morning something's happening in the neighborhood, but I don't know what it is But right now we're up and running. I posted the chart of the German Dax As you can see it had a little bit of a ABCD structure up to the 50% level sold off So far this morning. So we'll be able to see if it holds up That's really what we're going to be waiting on today Now we went up and made a major test at that 61% retracement in the S&P that we talked about quite a bit And so far it is backed off Let's just bring this up to remind everybody that this is what we were looking at And you'll be able to see here that we got up to that exact number except as a matter of fact at 259 anyway That's what we're looking at now. Now what we've done is very interesting folks out because this is really important Here's the ballgame right now in the S&P from there's from the chief seats here in on broad street here in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania That that number that we hit this morning at 2912 I believe in the S&P is a 382 retracement So it's very important that we stay above that if we start going below that that's going to be telling us that You know, we're heading down a lot more But that's that's neither here to there We don't know whether that's going to happen or not But if it does that that will be the reason it's at a real critical level for sure We want to take a look here at also the footsie because it's also doing the same pattern And we'll bring this up here You'll be able to see that we made the 50% retracement on the footsie just like we did with the Dax It hasn't moved down very much So we'll see the pound was hit Last night had some really good support In fact, we we talked about this one in one of our videos the importance of the support here that you had a near risk-free trade in the In the British pound there at that 12285 level and the key word there was nearly risk-free trade because once we were only risking 10 pips on that and It court once it broke there Just you know cascaded to the downside, which is that's what happens when they look at these things So we're seeing what's looking at we're chatting here in the den this morning about inflation and food prices and stuff folks This is nothing come on back in you get most you people weren't even trading back in the 70s when we had food inflation They used to have supermarkets were being picketed by the housewives And that's when cattle was selling for not even a hundred bucks and now they're at a hundred a quarter You know, so don't they it's just a main and they change all of the that's what Volcker did Volcker went in there and learn how to change the indices So people thought that there was less inflation and that's what turned it around And of course they should they slammed the door on the 13% Treasury bond rates and stuff like that. And what do we have now? It's the exact opposite. You know, it's really It's really amazing Anyway, we'll see we'll see what happens with some of these things But let's remember I wanted to bring to your attention. I'm a big fan of Dennis Gartman folks I really you know, I've known him a very long time. He's a really nice fellow But I have to I have to pick a bone here. Let's just get it up here And I'll bring you said he posted here that this was a chart that he's looking at in the S&P and Basically, it's a weekly chart and he's saying that the chart of the Dow And they eventually proved to be a textbook head and shoulders top folks It's not a textbook head and shoulders top if you go by the work of dr. Andrew low From, you know, the the non-random walk down Wall Street that was written in 19 or 2002 In order to be a perfect head and shoulders pattern the left shoulder that you can see there is Lower than the right shoulder correct and the time distance between those is not correct This is closer to a double top or a three drive to a top pattern than it is a head and shoulders pattern And that's the way I see it But those were the rules and Andrew low put out so we'll see whether that's going to be The case or not that I don't know but we'll do one thing at a time as we go through and look at some of these things the other one that was interesting is that Dennis posted a A real interesting thing on the the sudden move in China buying gold now I don't know, you know, you can see it's spring April July and October Evidently they've been adding to their reserves. That could be the reason, you know, why are we having this big move in gold? Now gold held if you remember when we were talking yesterday when we got down below that 1495 level that was very strong support and of course we've had a nice $20 rally From that level stopping exactly at the 61% rich race one of the high that we made Sunday night at 1519 if we get above the the 1520 level, then this is going to have legs I don't know whether it's going to happen or not All I can tell you is that it's got a really good chance of still going lower here Because if we look at platinum palladium and copper and silver, these are not these are not bullish markets folks They're just not they're not lagging on like we are with the With the gold silver you can see here as we talked about this many times We're still waiting for that 1660 level in the silver whether we get to there or not I'm not sure but you know what? Nobody else is either now. We are having some Just from just from just what's going on with some of these Futures charts. I wanted to bring to your attention one that we watch here for Ruby, of course And that is the let's get this up here so you can see This is the hog market. We were ready to see a nice retracement in the hogs The number we were looking at is around 6400. I believe that's where they got to Yesterday or this morning. That's where they're trading. So it's important that these Christmas hogs Stay right around this 6463 level because if they don't and if they don't that means they're going to be going a whole lot Lower but we'll have to wait and see if that is going better and better Folks, you know, they can talk about all the inflation and all the other stuff But the quality of our life no questions about it, you know, look at the look at the average age now Here I am. You know, I'm running into eight decades boys and girls and I certainly, you know I don't know how much I got left, but I'm still feeling relatively good But look, you know, my my grandfather he lived to be what 96 my great grandmother lived to be 103 My mother she lived to be 48 and and my father lived to be 60 So, you know, they were heavy smokers, but you know that the average age now is increased So we got a lot to be thankful about the problem that we're having is is what's going on in the world with all these Political things that are going on. I mean, I've never seen anything so sickening in my whole life I mean, it's just it's just amazing what what's going on, but I can't let that bother me and I try not to watch it at all So we Okay, okay. Oh the the hogs hit limit down Really? Wow. I didn't know that son of a gun. Okay. I'm really focusing on the S&P here today and stuff because you know, that's really the Yeah, I saw that yesterday Okay, let's get All right, let's let's move on here someone asked the question with having a pretty good rally today We had a we had a point two point drop two and a half point drop in the bonds They've since come back and are testing those highs again up at that That 165. Oh three would be right back eight seven seven nine two seven six six four eight If you're not currently using the TAS profile scanner when looking at setting up your trading opportunities Then your arsenal is short a mighty weapon The TAS profile scanner is a standalone piece of software that instantly filters over 2,500 global financial markets such as stocks ETFs commodity futures and forex headed by Steve doll TAS understands that in today's World the use of top flight software Applications and technical analysis expertise is essential to successful trading in today's market You also gain access to the webinar that Steve doll and Tom O'Brien just hosted the best way to use the TAS profile scanner To profit this webinar archive is available for all subscribers immediately upon signing up all new subscriptions Also come with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk start your subscription by visiting the front page of TFNN.com today, and you'll find the TAS profile scanner under the services tab sign up today Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay area including the surrounding st. Petersburg Tampa and Clearwater markets Tiger real estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay area Whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value or you're in the market for a second home or investment property Tiger Realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the Tampa Bay area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed Decisions across all price levels from the price You should be paying per square foot in certain up-and-coming areas to the type of cash flow investment properties are capable of creating Tiger real estate can help you make the best decision when it comes to all areas of the market before you make one of the Biggest decisions of your financial future call Tiger Real Estate LLC today at<PHONE_NUMBER> or email us at tiger at TFNN.com That's<PHONE_NUMBER> call us today Many of our new listeners have heard about the Tiger's Den The Tiger's Den is a lively community where professional traders and investors can meet exchange ideas and information in a comfortable moderated atmosphere Hear all of the TFNN shows plus see all the charts as they happen live and have access to archives of all of those charts You can test drive the Tiger's Den absolutely free for 30 days and greatly enrich your knowledge of these markets And how to make your money work for you details on the Tiger's Den on the front page of TFNN.com TFNN has launched our brand new website You can still visit us at the same TFNN.com URL But when you do you'll see a new and improved home page with a much simpler navigation Whether you're watching tiger tv live in high definition or just accessing your newsletter subscriptions We even have new pricing in six months and yearly options Check out the new TFNN.com now and experience all the upgrades TFNN.com educating investors Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 Internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER> Okay, folks someone's asked a question about limit up and limit down That's those are those are rules that they have at the Chicago mercantile exchange They're set by the exchange members And what it allows it in other words if the market goes up a certain amount It it stops trading and the reason why is that they want to make it Make people think about what they're doing and and maybe give them some time to think about actually limit up and limit down Really doesn't help very much because the market's going to go where it's supposed to go anyway But this allows the member firms to protect themselves somewhat So right and when when something goes limit down it just means there are no more buyers there They're only sellers when it goes limit up. They're only buyers and no sellers So that's what you have to know in the in the cattle and hogs it happens Once in a while it doesn't happen too much in the grains anymore because the limits They expand them enough and then stock indices of course are so wide that you don't see those at all So they don't happen very often But you don't want to get involved in a limit up and limit down situation because it's uh, well It's okay if you're on the right side of the market, but if you're on the wrong side of the market It's not a fun thing to be on so that's what limit up and limit down means And I believe we have mr z on the line now. John. Are you there? I'm at four hogs today would be a limit of 4.5 cents So that just gives a I also wanted to share with lary something regarding the hog market What i'll just share with anybody who's interested driven by uh Demand coming out of china china is limiting somewhat its purchase of us pork Going up and shifting from other countries back to the us So that if you're interested is uh 2016 through this year And that all came in recent 2014 It was a summer of 2014 from the job and that was an excellent example of what former tfnn host Ed young used to say The cure for high prices is high prices So we had very high prices and uh years ago the industry responded Increased that took a while to uh to unfold, but that's now in place The reason for my sharing all that here and now Is to say coming out of china Would likely not be at 67 on its way towards 40 So anybody who is trading december or february hog futures Please keep that in mind and thanks larry and tfnn team Great to have you guys all here larry pezzavento has just started his brand new service fibonacci 24 seven And he's already delivering content to his subscribers on a daily basis when the markets opened and even on weekends Each monday you'll receive larry's written report that provides detailed commentary and a summary on the charts and videos that larry sends out And throughout the week when warranted larry will send out via charts or videos or both The key markets that he is watching during the day This will be up to the date active trading information that will help you in your daily trading in larry's first week alone He sent out 25 charts six videos and a full report to his subscribers in just one week If you're a technical trader that uses patterns and retracements to trade then larry's service fibonacci 24 seven is something that you must try right now new subscribers can get a full 30 day money back guarantee With nothing to risk sign up now to larry pezzavento's fibonacci 24 seven by visiting the front page of tfnn dot com under trading newsletters


Gwdaeth hyn, dweudstech yn ysgol yn mi. Rydyn ni'n nhw'n rwy'n 15 o 20 y bydd yn gyfnodd y gwed i'w ysgol i'r pethau'y gydag. D er fawr yn gydigon, a awnodd dynon ac wedi'u cynu mewn cyfnodd a'i fu omdau. Nid yw yw'r gwrthwy flanker, dyw'r ddechrau ar gyfer oedd yr hyn yn gweithio'r gwybod. Dyma'r hyn yn ddweud o'r Tyfrasol yma, äddyn ni'n gwneud i gweithio'r You've had I was looking at the program, and if I didn't have to be here, this would be the one that I've missed this week personally. and I've come to the others, so it is remarkable to the Institute and I want to give credit to the Institute for, again, putting on such a stimulating group at such a really interesting time. I guess to start with, maybe get myself in trouble given my day job, is I want to put forward the thought that perhaps Mae'r cyfhysgau ymmwneud yn ymddangos gwyfodol yn ddoch gael o'r cyfosiwn. Rwy'n cael ei wneud yn gweithio at yw'r cyfrannu. Ta'r bywydau yn yma'r ymddangos, rydych yn y cyfrannu yn ymddangos i'r cyfosiwn yn ymddangos i'r cyfosiwn ymddangos, yn ymddangos i'r cyfrannu. Yn gyfosiwn roedd yn ymddangos i ddau. I think what's happened to us is an incredible fortuitous opportunity that other generations of Irish people would not believe how this generation finds itself right now in terms of the scale of affluence that is right throughout our society. And I can see some of you bristle already and saying it's not for everybody, but run with me for a while and then we can do it in the Q&A, the violent objection to the charge of affluence that Irish people seem to bristle at. Love the austerity cascade, but affluence is far too high. But yet the statistics on which I will draw upon will suggest that this is an affluent society, a fairly significant proportion, and that a lot of this has happened rather fast. And then when you look at the scale of the business community, which I have the honour of being a representative of, never in our history. And in fact I would argue geographically never in the history of many jurisdictions has a society moved as dramatically as Ireland on the scale of the resources that come in here in the last five years. So that's kind of what I'd like to do in the next 15 to 20 minutes and then open it up. So first of all, and I said this before, on the debate about whether GDP is a good measure or a bad measure or an accurate measure, I've always firmly been off the view is while I know GDP is not accurate, I believe it to be right. And so it's an imprecise way of measuring economies, lots of things left out, lots of things include that you might want to be in there, et cetera, et cetera. But the notion that the 2015 numbers, the leprechaun economics jibes, somehow was an aberration that has no tangible substance into our society is demonstrably false. And let me try to talk about why I think that is so.  So think of a family that wins the lottery. Two types of families, those who can cope with it and that good fortune that while it arrives in this generation, if used by that generation can make that family better off for generations to come, or the family that wins the lottery and has a great time for a short time but actually destroys quite a lot of the fabric that is the family with generational consequences of both regret and so on. And that's kind of the narrative I want to bring forward as a society right now. So what was our lottery win? Well, the lottery win is we happen to be alive at a moment where in business, to use that example, the world has very firmly changed from situation where value is particularly as reported in corporate balance sheets is now very heavily dominated by intangible assets as opposed to tangible assets. So if you go back to 1975, just as a year I happened to have the data for, it basically was an 80-20 rule, top 200, 500, 800, 1000 companies is pretty much consistent. Balance sheets will be 80% tangible assets and 20% intangible assets. And those of you who didn't have the benefit of some first year accountancy, the intangible assets are called good will. And even though today we call them brands or patents or copyrights or whatever, it's still actually good will. Because to be able to enforce your intellectual property, you need the good will of a social contract and a construct that people allow you to actually do that and you're protected by the law and society. So good will is pretty much driving a lot of the balance sheets now because we have the reverse. Today the situation is that it's the 80-20 has flipped around. But it's even been more dramatic than that. You don't have to go back to 1975, I just lent on that as a data point. 10 years ago or 12 years ago, the top 10 companies in the world were increasingly tangible companies in the sense of tangible assets being their driving balance sheet force. So these were oil and gas companies, four of the top 10 companies in the world would be oil and gas. If Exxon are still knocking around there just about, General Electric, a phenomenal company and still a phenomenal company is no longer in the top 10. It's not even in the Dow Jones industrial average anymore because they've been replaced by companies that have intangible assets being their primary drivers. You know the Google's, Apple's, Amazon's, etc. But it would be a mistake to think that this is a phenomenon of tech companies because increasingly when you look around and see other types of companies and substance companies, you will see that as well. The Glambia has been an example that I've had for some time in my head. I remember Siobhan, Talba told me I think in the year 2000, Glambia had exactly 1 million euros, an M, not a B, 1 million euros of goodwill on the balance sheet at that particular point. And about 12 months out of date perhaps, but it had reached 1.6 billion of goodwill on the Glambia balance sheet in the last 12 months. So it's not just tech companies. This phenomenon of intangible assets being a driver of a vast majority of companies is a very significant part. That trend then meeting the world changing and the need to try to tax corporations gave rise to a situation where we now have the OECD looking at in this new world of intangibility, how do we tax intangible versus tangible and where is the nexus on which to tax? And evocatively the word that comes out is substance, which is often why we have a campaign in eBay called the model of substance. And again this idea, particularly for a predominantly Catholic society, transubstantiation is not a new idea. The idea of moving between tangible and intangible in trending is conceptually at least something that we can cope with. And so the substance idea here is that you must have your corporate tax strategy aligned with where the substance is. And of course in the world of oil fields then the tax strategy would have to move to where the oil is evocatively, but in an intangible world the intangible assets can move to where the tax strategy is. And so I don't need to repeat what Ireland is to this audience. So we clearly had a well defined corporate tax strategy branded 12.5% etc. But we're also part of the European Union which gave that stability. And so the tournament as people started to move their corporate balance sheets away from the Caribbean islands because they couldn't show substance in those jurisdictions. They wanted to move to Europe which had substance. And then the choice within Europe was to land in a member state that was favourable. And the favourability that's often discounted or not taken account of is common law legal systems. Common law legal systems are much easier to deal with intangibility and fast moving, shift shaping events than codified law which needs to know what something exists to go through codified etc. Common law can be much more fluid. And so Ireland and the UK were the big beneficiaries in 2012, 2013 of this big nascent move of intangible assets. So companies moving to Ireland in 12 and 13 but also Britain were experiencing that as well. So for instance Pfizer, that great company and still a top 10 company in the world has attempted to become European twice in the last seven years. First by becoming British through the Asterix-Zeneca deal and then in 2000 that was blocked and then in 2016 attempted to become European again by becoming Irish through inverting through allergen. And again that was a change of tax code in the UK they backed off from that. But here is a top 10 company moving into a jurisdiction as a result of this trend. So in 2015, this very significant year for Ireland, the corporate balance sheet in Ireland tells the story of the leprechaun economics jibe and the fact that it wasn't taken account of I think has given rise to a kind of a misinterpretation. The rights or wrongs of it are a different issue that we can discuss the equity and the ethics and all of that kind of issues. Although I do find it offensive sometimes taking lessons from generations who have colonised the world for tangible assets in the past and certainly now have quite po-faced about totting. But in the same in the same regard what we're looking at is that the corporate balance sheet in Ireland increased by 40% in 2015 alone. And the reason is that Ireland was the winner takes all because Britain, which had been our competitor at the start, aggression of Osborne and Cameron around the corporate tax like the patent income box, 10% knowledge box, knowledge development box was our reaction to that etc. The torment was between the two jurisdictions really for capturing this moving corporate balance sheets. So Ireland wins because Britain made uncertainty and it wasn't even Brexit. It was the uncertainty about the break up with the United Kingdom at that point that gave Ireland its vantage. It was a Scottish independence referendum that created the uncertainty. So a 40% balance sheet increase for a sophisticated audience means that the P&L extraction from those balance sheets, which is a flow concept, is broadly similar to the GDP concept. They're not perfect, but they're proxy. And so what you see from the increase in the balance sheet was that the transaction, the P&L, the type of GDP activity was a 60 billion flow. And that 60 billion flow captured by GDP meant that our GDP increased by 34% in money terms in 2015. We're perfectly explainable from the balance sheet. But what the balance sheet movement was an incredible step up, so it's the equivalent of finding oil because the new oil is intellectual property and Ireland's been in the vanguard of frontier economy in that regard. And so Ireland is both a frontier economy and a resource economy in modern terms. This is the lottery win. And to give you a sense of the scale of that is that the 2015, the corporate tax returns were already revealing the phenomenon long before the CSO in July of 16 brought out the numbers. The expectation from the Department of Finance was for a 4.2 billion return on corporate taxes in 2015, but it came in at 6.9 billion. So there's nothing wrong in getting the forecast wrong. All I want to make the point is that the change was 2.9 billion of a surprise in corporate tax revenue. But 2.9 billion, whilst it's a fair bit of money in and of itself, is actually the end of the pipe. It is the money that you get from the profits that were in the balance sheets that were in your society in that year. So in other words, in an effect of 10%, just to keep my numbers easy, there was a 29 billion euro miss in our company accounts, as I mean the nation's company accounts in that particular year. So in other words, it was the equivalent of missing 29 Ryanair's. If you think of Ryanair doing a billion euro of profits, or CRH, or a carry, or whatever it might be. So it was a very significant miss. But that's just grown over the last number of years. Then there's the point and conscious of time, then there's the point to say, well, that's just all funny money and it's only just in balance sheets. And yes, that's a spin-off to the society. But what has it done for the individuals in that society? Well, what we've observed, and we're into the sixth year now in a row, so this is not temporary. It's not one year off. It may be a once-off epoch in a generation, and I do believe it to be. And that is all the issues about sustainability and how you use the resources. Let me just make another statement here. It is now the case that it has actually given Irish households a huge surge in income. And in fact, it is very clear that Irish households are clearly living within their means. Irish households are living within their means in spectacular fashion. Irish households have now more money on deposit in our banking system than they have borrowings from the banking system. In a phase of zero interest rates. It's perverse. The reason they may have that is because they're rationed from getting the things that they might actually want, which is family formation and housing units. So they're ready to pounce in terms of having the cash ready to go if the opportunity arises. So maybe a symbol not of something positive, but perhaps of something negative, being rich but rationed. Not being able to get your hands on the assets that they require. But it's also the case that disposable income over that six-year period is now increased by 25%. But when you say percentages like economists do, it's generally baseless. So have you ever had a conversation with economists? We told about 5% growth, but nobody knows what 5% of what. What does it mean? So I was on with Ivan Yates actually on Monday. It feels like a month ago already. And there are 2020. What's going to happen in the new year? What's your forecast? I guess the forecast is, if you look out there, in money terms, because economists will be a bad medic, because they don't tell you about your respiratory system. You say, how am I in my respiratory system? You're fine. But your blood system is actually poisoned. You're only half the story. So if you're only talking about volume and you don't know about the price, you say, well, we seem to be fine. So whatever it is, 3.5% volume growth, maybe 1.5% price growth, 5% next year, this year. It's not necessarily forecast. It's an exercise I want to go through. If it is 5%, that means that GDP in Ireland will increase by 15 billion euros. And there's 5 million of us now, which is 3,000 euros of an increase for the year. In those terms, if some family member wrote a cheque for 3,000 euros and gave it to each member of the family over Christmas, we'd say, it could be a good year. It's quite a nice gift to get. So that forecast, which is now kind of presented as an economy slowing down in Ireland, so it's only going to be 3.5%, it's beginning to slow and cool off. But actually, in reality, that's the type of a generation of activity measurement as a 3,000 per person delta in there. This is getting reflected in the incomes. So Irish households have self-reported through the household budget survey what they spend and what they earn. So the average Irish household has now income of over 70,000 euros. There's 2.9 persons or three persons per household. Their disposable income is pretty much the same level because the actual share of the average Irish household in terms of income tax is still in so low single digit. So we don't, not a high taxed household. The households have the money and they're spending it.  But what's supplementing their means if the state is trying to go in an investment? Well, it's actually the largest coming from the corporate tax revenue is supplementing what the households should be paying in terms of the delivery of the public services which they profess to want. So it's going to be rather uncomfortable in an election cycle knocking on the door and saying, you've got the money. We want it to actually deliver the things that you say you want like better public services and more GPs and more teachers and more security for the state. The Irish households have the money. They choose not to give it up willingly and they choose to spend in consumption patterns that are very dramatic. And while there might be anecdotal, we see commentary about our criminal gangs are moving out of Ireland because the market is saturated in illicit drugs. Can't get price recovery given the scale to which the phenomenon is in our society. Markets work and economies work even in illicit markets. I don't know if it's true or not, but it's a proposition. In that regard, we're seeing this conspicuous consumption is reflected in the airport numbers. Dublin airport's gone from 18 million passengers to 32 million passengers.  I'm not a killjoy. I'm just expressing where people are spending their money, but they're not putting it back into the public infrastructure and sufficient away. The other feature that we've observed in the last number of years is that the scarce construction resources are getting sucked up by corporates as well, which is a positive thing because there are going to be firms invest to put down productive assets, which themselves will have recurring income into the future. They're not spending an investment just to get the money spent the year. They're putting something into the ground, machinery equipment, building construction, the intellectual property, so they'll have recurring income over the next number of years. And the investment in Ireland right now is absolutely gargantuan. Gargantuan, the SRI in their latest forecast suggests that investment in Ireland by firms this year will be 120 billion euros. Now think about that. That's 2 billion euros or so a week. The iconic and spectacular investment that is Intel in the west of Dublin, which again is an expansion mode, has taken 30 years to invest 15 billion. And we're talking about society that's now churning 2 billion euros a week. So in eight weeks we'll have done the equivalent of an Intel lifetime in Ireland type investment. That is spectacular, but it also has huge crowding out effects in a society that's trying to cope with this scale. And so what we observed then is that we've spent 3 billion euros on refurbishment of existing housing stock in 2018, and we spent exactly the same amount on new dwellings. So the scale of refurbishment both from the commercial but also then into the private sector, those with the money and so on as well, we're seeing that there's a crowding out effect into the capacity to deliver on the housing stock for an increasing population. I just put these forwards on either good or bad, it's up to you to determine whether these are good or bad things, but they're explainable stories as what's going on. The last feature maybe to finish Michael on this one is that if we are a resource economy and if we are a frontier economy and if we're the family that is possibly the ones that want to have a good time for half a generation as the ones that might be wanting to put down the long term. So in other words we found oil or gas, are we going to be in Norway or are we going to be a Middle Eastern country, let's put it that way. What would you might observe? Well one thing you might observe is the labour market responses. So stereotypically, and this may be unfair, but stereotypically to the oil rich Middle Eastern societies, one of the phenomenon that they've observed over time is the indigenous population stops working and dabbles. Not that they're not doing anything, but they don't have to work. In fact they supplement the society by bringing in people at both ends of the spectrum for low paid work and then specialists for teaching and medicine and sport stars and so on. There's a solution for the FAI. So in that regard we see that the participation rate starts to fall dramatically. So while Ireland is now at 2.3 million people at work and about 100,000 are so unemployed in that ILO measure, so we've got 2.4 million people in the labour force, that 2.4 million is actually only 62% of the population in the age bracket 18 to 65. 65 may no longer be politically correct, but just for the sake of the number. That means 38% of the population are not participating. And then the question is, are they not participating because of why? So we've got the same amount of sick people and people who physically can't work, disproportionately I'm sure, in other societies. So we also have much more children, more care responsibilities, childcare being expensive, getting to work being expensive, hard to get two buses, taxation system is punishing at the margin, etc. These are all reasons why, but they're affluent reasons. Now you might like the word affluent about that because people say it's a legitimate reason I'm not doing it. I'm not saying you're workshop, I'm just saying if you really had to work for the household and if there's jobs there, then you would. And there's plenty of jobs there and you're not doing it, so therefore you made a choice not to work because of reasons why you felt you weren't going to do it. This is not a moral judgement, I'm just explaining why we are experiencing this affluence. We're also seeing in the younger age cohorts, they're dabbling a lot more as we would describe in the past in finding themselves. So staying longer in education or staying longer in going away and coming back and beginning to postpone the start line. And again, that's great. That's a great choice to have, but it's an affluent choice. It's not an austerity choice. And so in that regard, the very last point I want to make, which is probably the most serious one, is all of this large S and it's great. People don't believe it, of course. They say, I don't feel it. And also I can see why the market found me and rewarded me, but I just can't explain my neighbour. They're real dumbasses. I don't know how they're doing the same living standard as me. But in that regard, you're seeing this kind of relativity piece that people legitimately have, they're disconcerted. So proves that money can't make you happy. But what we're then trying to figure out is where are we in this regard? Well, first of all, the median Irish household now has 50%, 50% more income than the UK equivalent. It's that dramatic what's been occurring here. And again, people say, I don't believe that. But what's your term of reference? Well, in rural Ireland, people compared to Dublin, but actually just think of Ballsbridge. They take account of the whole of the city and the various areas of the city. In fact, rural Ireland actually has a higher disposable income than urban Ireland through the household budget survey again. We see that. Very often, people will go to the urban to make the money and bring it back to the parish to live in, et cetera. But this imbalance is not actually as apparent as those describe it. So the imbalances in our society are sure there, but they're not as dramatic and the absolute level is very high. But the bit that I worry about most, and this caused consternation to some of the more right-wing fellow travellers as they might have seen me as, is that the state is potentially getting too small for the scale of the resources that are now in our society. And I think the labour market is probably the part that I would put forward as a proposition on this. My numbers are not going to be precise, but they're roughly correct. Off the 2.3 million at work, 0.3 is the public sector. It's 350,000, but run with me at the 0.3. When we were 1.5 million, we had 0.3 public sector workers as well. So in other words, what we've observed is the private sector has gone from 1.2 million workers to 2 million workers. We've got 800,000 more private sector workers and no extra public sector workers. As I said, I've been imprecise, but just for effect. A rich society, I don't know what the answer is in the ratios, but it seems suspicious to me that we're in this scenario of what a rich society actually wants in terms of public sector infrastructure and public sector delivery that would allow that ratio imbalance to get so low because rich societies want better public services, but they are provided through people very often, whether they are planners or teachers or medics or crucially security. If you use a tawt experiment that I've put forward before, if it is the case that our primary schools have a ratio of 28 to 1, again, I don't know if that's a correct number or not, it's a tawt experiment, why as a rich society don't we go for 14 to 1? Of course, in that sentence, I've doubled the teachers. But why stop at 14 to 1? You might say, well, I've lost a run of myself now. But by reveal preference, this society actually likes to have an Oxbridge tutorial system when it comes to the education of their children, it's called Grines. And Irish households have been doing Grines in my lifetime, time immemorial. Even when I was in short pants, the words Grines was familiar to me, even in working class household. So we have a reveal preference actually just in that one item to more. So it seems stunning that we're allowing this ratio to go without any commentary, but it has huge manifestations, and the last one is clearly on security. I can think of no worse labour market story than about our defence forces. On both ends of the command chain, the capacity to earn a living to be able to be there to defend us in the defence forces, and particularly in the navy on the ships that can't go out because they can't crew them, and that some of the navy who are living on the ships because they can't get accommodation, and at the end of the officer class, the phenomenon has been observed in the air corps for years of people being bought out by the private sector. We're now seeing it in cyber security and so on. The real issue we have to confront is given that we're now rich and in charge of so many assets, those two billion euros a week are building up into massive assets that we can physically see all around us. Are we certain that we actually have the critical mass of public infrastructure and public service capacity to ensure that we can keep this golden goose that we have, and that we can actually be the family that makes future generations better off? Thank you.


we have Sharon the director how long is this day going to be? we have like 16 hours like we have two sets so it's like two days in one day how are you going to make a bunch of people feel like they're at a party when they're actually in set


morning everybody welcome back to another stream hopefully you guys are doing great without further ado let's get started with yesterday's review we've got about half hour to get that news release so we're just about coming to it so yesterday pretty interesting day sort of we can see where we came in yesterday in terms of understanding that this was a split decision short long and it ended up looking like it was gonna break up at least from this point of view we got our nice little double bottom here and we got out 10 o'clock remember yesterday's advice was just wait for 10 o'clock and just pretty much do the inverse of what you see in the inverse of what we saw leading up to leading up to 10 was nice little downside double bottom so it made sense to sort of long uh this didn't really last long as you can see just very much exploded into these walls here and when our next time interval came along we ended up trading down you can see that it started collecting pretty much at this sort of very high level here as you can see went to 25k dropped straight down another 1k down so it's a very good move down it would require sort of Asia this was what 1600 market close depending on if you stayed in over 90 or not i mean 1600 came along here you had to wait an hour i'd say minimum weight should have been two hours if nothing happened two hours you could have easily closed that because you stand the risk of just reversing it after so maybe swiping at it so 1600 came along nothing happened 1700 came along it just sort of uh sort of cascaded all the way down into sort of this wall that they set up a very long time ago even this shallow wall got a bit more excited as we sort of came closer and closer to this price now it's all consolidating you can see the building up shorts again so maybe we go for the reach around looks like the move here was just an attempt to catch breakout longs for the most part as well as sort of take out liquidations that may or may not have been there uh if we sort of uh again break down sort of um the time intervals here uh yesterday 13 30 uh go look uh yesterday again uh 10 o'clock is just our standard sort of uh normal affair you obviously have potential of 8 30 being the initial swing that leads into 10 uh but is where we have that uh 130 coming in usually we look for that 12 o'clock but again uh often uh when we get the speakers they usually sort of uh play with that either moving it forward or backwards uh around that uh 12 o'clock standing time uh then lastly we had that sort of uh closing uh speaker coming in here nothing really too obvious coming in uh but this just led into that uh one hour sort of delay then you can see that here we add what 1600 coming here market close again just an hour of nothing then form off we go again if it was two hours of nothing out of said get out but it was just only an hour again we give it an hour uh we give about two hours to breathe if it consolidates for two hours like this you're usually not really wanting to be in that short uh you're more likely to be in that inverse position but again another sort of win in terms of understanding that uh time intervals are very important uh and not blindly just saying oh yeah just trade whatever time just do the opposite but it's just if there's a build up and a significant lead up into that uh again it's something that you can take advantage of uh alternatively if you if you went if you didn't know what the time speakers were you can just look came in look at this you can see that the first build up was uh very sort of climactic you can see that here then this one just creating that that lower area not really letting those uh longs release that just shows us sort of new longs entered into this market so you can see there's new orders new trapped orders into here and they're just adding as much as they can as close as to this without releasing the order orders and once you come along it's just nice and it's just an added benefit to know that okay you're looking for 13 30 here just because that's where you have that speaker coming in and and it will ran along coming to today uh again we talked about the split that they're developing here was the short traders uh looks like they're supporting and they're trying to push it up ahead of time uh not really too much news today except for 8 30 so looks like gonna be a pretty much standard fair where we expect 10 o'clock and and potentially sort of uh 12 o'clock just a typical sort of standard times where we may look for things in terms of a midday slump and and so on but as long as the thing above uh let's just say uh 23 750 we should be decent in terms of uh understanding if we're gonna go up or not uh again if we sort of eat into here as long as sort of above here developing this was sort of biased along for the most of the park uh listen to we sort of show that we have conviction to sort of just liquidate longs here the shorts here then if we start liquidating shorts here i mean it would ideally come all the way back into this area here uh maybe it would be slightly overhang just under 24 to 50 who knows but then we drop that's the only sort of uh short play for today if we're expecting prices to come down uh other than that you're pretty much uh looking for it to at least uh climb up uh a bit there just looking at sort of yes we're sort of seeing similar things that uh where we sort of again came in here to the down you see just put much earlier on and then continue back down hearing yourselves a nice little essentially double bottom uh connecting probably shorts at this area here uh in terms of resistance wise for it you're looking for just above here so we have that if it decides to climb back up uh it can hammer itself much early on or even support itself here if it wants to grow for higher so again it's just about understanding where your levels are pretty sort of uh far and between 40 years it's just not uh it's just not really uh doing so hard i mean bitcoin's been doing a lot better recently because ever since the shift and see that here it's shifted away just doesn't want to come back but we have that potential saying this area and this area here our points we may consider uh where it will do uh the same and if yes decides to sort of find itself uh at this sort of area here it continues to go up and then if it doesn't if it supports itself like yes does then yes if it doesn't maybe seeing this at least continue back down to 22 750 who knows the possibilities are endless not really but there are some possibilities uh yet to be seen uh whilst we wait on that news to sort of come out we can look at sort of yesterday news i guess uh we've got a half hour uh-huh the sec charges tarot labs terraform labs oh no the old department was defrauding crypto investors oh my god no uh skew she's invested in playing toga rising value statements from the sec also alleged that terraform and fun also uh receive investors while marketing lunar token a cryptocurrency that crashed damn it was may that was so long ago they only felt like yesterday uh stability of terraluna and algorithms stablecoin which deep paid from the u.s. all leading to a fomenting zero uh trying to include in karkin a public exchange which hits in staking program sec also hits two public exchanges and all for bitcoin trading gem nine genesis and in January with charges raised to unregistered securities all that to locate and the rest is claimed to only share location with friends who plan to meet and people playing web three games are about them yeah no uh just a bit of fluff i guess not nothing sort of too uh outlandish now so we have some bloody wait for it jitters always jitters that's what it is pre-market jitters everyone just scared in eight thirties just the only news timing to obviously turn across our standard pair 8 3 10 next week looking ahead uh nothing really uh when's the next day that's got major sort of minutes okay what minutes coming in at what Wednesday Wednesday okay week from now we've got the minutes which probably just tells you that how important the Wednesday is in the grand scheme of things but other than Wednesday it'll say we're pretty much relaxed uh is there any holidays coming up for the market uh it's not February i haven't got school after i don't think there's any holidays coming up never know they might have invented some random uh the 20th there we go three days from now monday's close so that explains why there's not much activity yeah i had a feeling uh london london exchange it doesn't really matter if it's closing up but good morning uh again no holiday for london but again it does look like uh us is closed on monday so that'll be interesting it'll be a what a four-day week mentally for the market uh we probably expect china to move it if uh if anything but usually it would just be quiet over over the next three days so it looks like we have an extended holiday uh for the most part uh to be honest uh looks like china is not uh not joining the u.s in washington day made up one day this is at half is impartial trading or is it fully closed uh yeah it's fully closed okay so washington's birthday fully closed exchange leading into a three-day week weekend and long weekend that's nice yeah i guess yeah for a made-up holiday i guess that's nice i like that kind of looks quiet monday kind of looks quiet today are they setting up something yeah cool they are uh april's way we got major holidays but one exchange i mean u.s being down's always big just because that's when the duration of the volume come from uh into the market i mean of course china has this volume even though it's very much illegal but it's nice to know that we have another date of quietness coming in from monday it's always nice uh it's leading itself down again this is what you want to see if you want to be on the long side just shorts getting uh sort of stacked into these larger bed walls uh it's sort of showing sort of strength rather than it being sort of uh lungs that entered into here again we're looking for shorts to be stacked here this just means we're more likely to uh break upwards than we are to break down just because we can squeeze those shorts much easier uh as we sort of go along let's have a look at some old coins since we're running out of things to say uh start with ethereum i guess before people start complaining about oh yeah what about ethereum uh looks like we've created a nice little daily level uh we sort of broke finally that monthly uh took a took a metric plan to break it but we did that we even created a nice little four hours we've got a nice little offer zone now to actually there flipping the monthly is very important for ethereum uh if you can continue on this trajectory uh hopefully doesn't get captured here and uh and then decline off of this uh if you can break this again super important because uh it's just been stuck here for a really long time it's a very uh pivotal point for it if you can flip this you can move into sort of new arranges and potentially even find yourself back into the uh okay uh mark at some point no not in the near not recently but eventually you'll find yourself back into okay you just need to sort of get on this area here as long as it starts clearing this area we sort of start shifting to the higher sort of uh higher bound realms once we find ourselves on these higher bound realms we start looking a lot better than we have been in the past with ethereum so definitely keep your eye out see if you can hold above uh this sort of monthly uh sort of level if it can again it catches itself on here doesn't want to doesn't want to give you the retest or doesn't want to hold this area of whatever reason uh then it just sort of falls off inevitably back to sort of the 15 100 levels and you're sort of shouting interest like oh my god ethereum trash why not do something but that's pretty much ethereum again it's just i guess decided on what bitcoin ends up being today and bitcoin's just decided to whatever uh the es is doing for today against if it is nice flip stuff it can flip stuff but uh i don't think i mean let's see i think people are going to be trading scared today uh just because what it's an extended weekend and you got a Tuesday so we've got to do a lot of setup uh a lot of setup today and Tuesday for Wednesday minutes uh if everyone's or if everyone's trading scared Wednesday is probably when you want to reverse long uh if today falls uh looking at Solano uh again just found itself in a rock not hard place fell down to that resistance uh level after hitting the higher bound tier uh it's holding here again i think most coins will most coins will be at level of support just because they move and very nice together we discussed where the supports were yesterday and it's all up and low bounds uh it's nice to see it trading both sides uh sort of the extreme again it's got a lot more breathing space up top but then the day it's still sort of at something where this people would trade short for some reason uh but as long as you see that those short traders come in you're trading long uh it's basically just do the inverse of whatever retail does at this point i think most people will be entering into Somnelo shorts and see this one's a lot faster in sort of reclaiming ground but uh most people yeah will be likely to enter shorts because they see sort of live they see sort of recognizable patterns uh and uh uh uh right in doing so but uh a right in but they just want to believe this sort of works and enter short here and we already saw the break up on uh on big uh on bug map power this was majority short even on this sort of side here you sort of break that short usually they like to sort of break out long above here so we see if it leads into a break out long into decline as all the sort of holes here and trade short uh the majority of uh the climb there uh we can look for that to reverse it if we don't it'll just be a nice one and done sort of ah yeah this plays out because people entered long here they said oh yeah if we're not trading that flag there's a long break out here it supersedes that sort of flag pattern this is the most recent thing that we see and then they sort of uh get run up on and decline down that's the only sort of uh scenario where you do want to go short again when you see that run on uh short stops uh and the addition of breakout long in that we closely followed uh with sort of yes doing similar things uh if not the exact same thing which comes up runs up into this area here and sort of falls down much lower not much to add today uh don't expect it to be too loud today uh can go about 15 minutes but we'll wait for the 830s release then sort of uh see if there's any need to go uh add anything today uh let's sort of look at some things else gold finding its way down slowly but surely again what we expected uh what we wanted ever ever ever since ever since i was a young boy uh if all i wanted was gold to go down i don't know uh ever since we found ourselves on these fires at uh last week essentially uh looking at uh we were looking to say gold to go down and they slowly find its way down so again like i said should be a nice downward swing for a while we'll see how far they take it if they decide to double bottom at this at this junction here or continue back and then find the weekly all the way down here before sort of trying to reclaim higher ground uh just because the weekly was looking very much uh like you wanted to go down but we can still get upward swings even if we sort of look at again just looking at sort of where the volume was see where they're sort of capping that off here just catch that trading below you can see that here trading trading to it here but you can see the majority of volume they're just trading below the most part but you're looking at this you're seeing okay potential em uh here we'll see how far they go see how far they will want to lead it hopefully they go a bit lower then sort of then you can maybe expect to go higher after that but generally uh was first sort of start up again so it's very bearish sort of projections but hopefully we can get it and get something out of it on this swing uh or sort of reclaim higher grounds it's about some Microsoft corporations and they're just so close to so close to adding chat I mean they already have that beta function they already rolled up the what edge update that uh that's saying oh yeah you want to be part of chat gpt bing bing supremacy finally bing will no longer be a meme and then doing good uh I mean doing better in google at the very least I mean where we stand now it's not too bad you can see that it is sort of a nice little double top here you can see that so I've got that volume node here if we hold that area here we expect it to reverse off of that maybe sort of get out into here then reverse just dependent if we don't hold this you're looking for this sort of probably swing down a bit but more aggressively maybe down to the weekly one who knows we've got a lot of buffering here but generally it's not a bad investment being again so it's something that you can consider a little more long term just because it's I mean it was down I mean it was down now it's like I love going back up I mean it's a good company just to sort of have I mean it's much a major rise back up especially with the whole sort of chat gpt if only they get activation blizzard they just become unstoppable I think at this point like if they can get it and then here's what you go around like they'll be sort of the gaming division will finally have some profit to it which are they much needed a meta I think also a decent one you can see the gacha hopefully sort of they fill out again like I said ever since this we've been sort of looking at meta just because they have that sort of quest free announcement on the horizon I mean they already released a quest pro lineup and we've got that quest free coming up and we've already had those leaks sort of show and it'll be sort of very big for meta just just because it's a commercial stress of the best to hopefully translate some quest free for the most part just fill out these mainly if it can sort of fill out these maybe continue back up into some sort of trajectory upwards we're going to answer all the highs I think you can see how bad but it fell down but it's got back up again just some certain extent again not something bad to have just just doesn't general thing just I mean with this current sort of discounted price that we've got here I mean it's just not bad to have period just way on sort of better news for I mean sort of if you expect better days to be in the horizon we're getting a lot of companies now stepping into sort of exile or augmented reality and VRs reality as well as mixed glasses I mean apples entering into and so on and so forth but so it's starting to pick up some traction which is much needed for I think a meta as Oculus is Oculus value proposition second to nine I mean you just can't be there a lot of people just use it because it's a solid piece of care was sort of game library and sort of compatibility with PC so it's something to consider and looking at sort of the Oculus Pro and the potential of and the yeah and the potential leaks that are coming up for the Quest 3 you can see that they're improving it miles beyond what they need to so it should be sort of a major sort of release for them should expect some cells yeah should expect some sort of waters to sort of bob and weave and the cells numbers to sort of at least improve because hopefully this time they don't sell it out a lot or sell it at a very sort of value proposition to themselves so they don't lose too much money hopefully now it's just a lot easier to sort of swallow these sort of hard as well as those like 500 is budget now because I mean now what the PS PS VR game out is about what 550 as decent as it is it just doesn't have the game library that PC or even Oculus I stand alone has so that's why I'd say the matters are still something that you want to consider having I know a lot of people don't like the Zuckerberg but the homicide poor leadership side admit just from a pure technical point of view in terms of understanding the size just understanding the kit behind it and the technology behind it this is very good to say the least and that's a bit kind of going down a bit again just seeing those shorts here that's just drives it home that we're just building up shorts nothing sort of to outlandish seven minutes to get that person's drop we're building up in shorts the more we build down head of 830 more likely we are to sort of hit that on the other side and say just waiting for this thing down I can I can sit here and sign up seven minutes if that's that's what you guys need but again it should be as simple as if we go down 830 hits here we hit 830 here there's a lot of shorts that ended in here shorts and didn't hear we'll get squeezed out into there we start seeing a build up along I mean first step is obviously here second step is here if you start getting these longs and there's just to liquidate these shorts then we sort of curve that back down if you don't sort of come back into here and read sort of shorts just these sort of two places that you're looking for for today for the most part generally don't think too much of today it shouldn't be too I can't even say we'll be too explosive it should be it should have some magnitude behind today considering sort of we had next three days off it just depends if they want to save it for Tuesday or if they want to go explosive today ES is more of the same story again you're just looking for this carved here it doesn't hold here you're falling if it does hold here you're sort of trying to climb that back there's backup and just maybe even collecting just below uh let's sort of say like that but I'm not holding sort of this uh what we held here before and would be bearish for us other than that I think that's pretty much what I've got to say because I've got a rush to an appointment and it's um yeah I'm cutting it very close already but generally just sort of should be in decent hands you guys should know what you guys are doing uh it's nothing sort of too uh too foreign I mean if you guys don't know what you guys are doing watch old live streams like playing everything and it's just the same same same like five five different things that we do every day uh on the sensor and times look for double bottoms understand some volume traps and understand just doing the majority of the time just doing the opposite of what everyone else does uh so again that's been great as always I will catch you guys next week I hope that have a lovely day folks and enjoy the rest of the weekend peace