Good morning, I'm Peter Sharusian. This is Drug Reporter Stories from the Frontlines live video series on harm reduction during the COVID era. Today we are discussing the situation in Greece. As usual, I have two guests with me, two professionals from two leading harm reduction organizations based in Athens, capital of Greece. I have Niki Voduri from Praxis and Tassos Smetopoulos from Steps. Good morning guys, how are you? Good morning, hello, we are fine, you? Thanks. Good morning. Today is a special day, June 26th, the UN calls this day an international day against drug abuse and illicit trafficking but the harm reduction community told that we need to reframe this day and activists transformed this day a few years ago into the support on punish global day of action. As I see Tassos, you have a t-shirt with the sign, you can show. So yeah, this is the sign and on this day, everywhere in the world, NGOs and activists and professionals are doing some activities to raise awareness on the need to change drug policies and make them more supportive rather than based on punishment. So before we start to discuss general situation in Greece, can you tell me if there are any activities or programs in Athens regarding support on punish action day? Day, you mean for this day? Yeah, yeah, today, yeah, on the support. Yes, there is an activity in Kipseli, in the main market of Kipseli, there is the platform of NGOs, there is a coalition of NGOs, Praxis and Steps are members of it and there's going to be discussion on the rights of drug users, what should be done? There will be representatives from the state, from other NGOs, from addictions, addiction therapy bodies, Tassos, am I forgetting something? It's today six o'clock, three o'clock time. Yes. Okay. Oh, that sounds good. So let's start to speak about how this COVID crisis affected people who use drugs in your city. So can you tell me how the crisis changed the lives of drug users? Now I suppose the lockdown is more or less over in most cities. But let's go back to when this crisis started and please tell me how it affected your clients and your work. Maybe you can start Nikki and then Tassos. Okay. What you must understand is that the main problem during COVID was concerning the drug users that were in the streets, homeless drug users. In Athens, there are quite a few people that don't have a place to stay. So as soon as the lockdown was implemented in Greece, everything was shut down.  This was a indirect correlation with the drug users because suddenly they didn't have access, not even to bed and the whole house like before, but they didn't even have access to water, to a toilet, to food. So it was suddenly they were with nothing. In Athens, it's rare to have public toilets and water. So it's really difficult to have access to these things. And it was quite challenging for us because we had to find ways to provide even more basic things that we had to do before. So it was a really big problem and a big challenge. Tassos, do you have anything to add? More or less Niki described the situation, plus that the police was pushing people from corner to corner, not allowed them to find peace in spots. Actually I remember when we were with my colleague Istvan, we went to Athens to film about harm reduction. I remember that it's very visible on the streets of Athens that there is a strong police presence and like I've heard a lot of stories about police aggression against people who use drugs. So can you explain me or those people who don't know the situation in Greece, why is this so so much, you know, why the police is so aggressive in Greece and why there are so much emphasis on this kind of repressive law enforcement on the streets. So how did you get there in this state? My opinion, it's lack of education. The philosophy of punishment in Greece is for the drug users, I mean, it's the prevailing philosophy, not only for the police but quite often, and Tassos correct me if I wrong, in the general public. So because there is very scarce education concerning drug matters and also the police, the punishment is what is mostly what we deal with. There have been laws the last few years that seem to be shifting a little bit the things from, you know, from punishment to rehabilitation and support and stuff, but it's not enough in my opinion yet and also from the founding of a law to the implementation of the law and to what the police and people understand about this law, it's a long way. Tassos? You know, let's say at 60s in Greece, we used to say that the teachers, the priests and the police men are the real powers in Greece. This time, we lost the teachers. So we stayed with the priests and the police. So this is how they have it in their minds, that they have a power and they have to exercise their power and the easiest way to do this is to the most vulnerable people. So I think when we talk about Greece, we can't say that before this COVID crisis, it was everything normal because you already had a crisis, right? Since 2008 or it may be even before that the Greece was a country which was very hardly hit by this financial crisis and the austerity policies, politics and the budget cuts and lack of access to social and health care. So did it also make worse the police violence? Like was it even bad before this crisis or is it connected or linked to this crisis that the police became so aggressive? In my opinion, I really don't know if the financial crisis had to do with the police violence. In my opinion, the financial crisis in general, and I'm not speaking only about the police right now, was also an ethical crisis. Many things in the country were challenged, many ideas, many beliefs that we had up until now about life in general and rights and who is poor, who is the drug user. So the financial crisis was a really significant time but we also have to add to this seclusion also other things that happened in Greece during this time. For example, the HIV epidemic in Athens in 2012, in drug users, injection drug users and how they were treated at that time from the police and from the authorities. There were people that were arrested, they were accused of prostitution women, to be particular, they were accused, they were prosecuted that they were, how can I say, intentionally harming others. So I think that at this point we come through a series of things happening in Greece during the financial crisis concerning the police and the drug use and adding to this the cat-backs of harm reduction kits from public organizations like Okana and others. So it's a little bit complicated. You mentioned Okana and for those who don't know the system in Greece, Okana is a state agency as far as I understand and it provides lots of services for people who use drugs in Greece and it has a very central role in the systems. Do you think it's a good system? Okana is the only state agency, the only agency state or private, there's no private that has the right and the ability to provide substitution. Ok, so it's the only place where a drug user can have methadone or reprenorphine or any kind of substitution. So in my opinion, in these terms, no, to have just one, no. Tassos, do you agree? Yes, I just want to add that as someone that is coming from the community, because I used to be a person with problematic drug use for more or less 20 years, I can say that not many things really change since 80s in Greece. And I'm talking for the daily life of the people that are out there struggling to find their dose or struggling to have access to the services. It's having waiting lists, it's something that says that something is wrong, because many times if you lose the timing, I mean let's say finding someone on the streets in a street works if that saying that I'm tired, I want something for my life now. So if you cannot respond to this, what he wants at the moment, you lost it. And you don't know if there is another time that you are going to have the chance to serve the person or to support the person in order to find another way. What do you think what should be done to change the situation? What is needed? What kind of reform? First of all to decriminalize the law of the drug users. I mean in one hand we provide the kids for the safe use and in a gray zone. And in the other hand the state and the law says that these people are criminals. So the thing is that we have to change how they see all these people and what they are dealing with. Do you see any openness from the governments to change the drug laws increase? No. I mean it's and there are the examples let's say in Barcelona in 90s or in Portugal in more or less the same period. They realize that they have a problem, they sit down, they collaborate in order to find solutions and to deal with it. In Greece the last almost 40 years is just putting the problem under the carpet. So do you feel as NGOs that your voice is not heard by decision makers that there are no mechanisms to involve civil society? It's some years now and Niki correct me if I'm wrong but the civil society and organizations and NGOs are trying to asking strongly to be part of the policies and we have a strong denial from the state and also from the ones that they suppose to support these people such as Ocana, such as Keter. We've been included in discussions in workgroups in many kinds of things where ideas are exchanged and strategies are being discussed but in the basic policy making it's not us that have any words so but we are there at any time whenever the state has any difficulty, problem, trouble implementing anything the NGOs are the first to come and implement because it's easier for us to implement programs than the state so we are there at any time. I think that because we have a knowledge from the street we should be heard more except from academic and you know idea exchanging things. So when you had this COVID epidemic in Greece and you had to respond quite rapidly to this problem so did you see that maybe this could change your relationship with the decision makers that they were like dependent more on your knowledge and expertise and doing some new interventions on the streets, things like that. One positive thing that happened during the lockdown of COVID was the implementation of two shelters for homeless people from the municipality of Athens as the key stakeholder. One was for the homeless people and the other was for homeless drug users. So these kinds of shelters we have been asking and discussing for I really don't know how many years that they should be there in Athens for people to have a bed, a warm meal, access to toilet to water. So in terms of this, this was a positive step that happened. And if it was not for COVID and the lockdown and fear of people gathering together, I'm sure that it would be a lot more difficult than it was now. So emergency circumstances where the reason why this happened, it happened quite quickly for the Greek times. So it happened quite quickly during the lockdown. We were asked in this project in a way for the homeless people as practices, we are still implementing there along with the municipality. We have social service and medical service there for the drug use, the drug user's shelter. We have been having a lot of meetings and, you know, being asked about our opinions and, but in the end it is implemented from the municipality O'Connor and another addictions agency or anybody who doesn't know, still, it's still more needed. As I saw in the pictures, it was even opened by the mayor of Athens, right?  Yes, he was supportive of these projects and they were much needed in the city of Athens and there are more needed because they are, you know, they are spaces that have a number of places and I think it's not enough, in my opinion. Many other places, spaces should be opened and also what is what should be done, what we're saying years now that it should be done, there has to be also a place for the drug users to use drugs, you know, a drug consumption room. Now we have a place that some of the people can stay, not everybody, but we still have people having to use in the streets.  No, no, no, it's not open. It was a pilot program, it was shut down due to law things and complications and stuff and people working in the drug consumption room were nearly prosecuted because of the gaps of the law, you know, employees, I mean. And now we have the law and we don't have the drug consumption rooms. If I can add something more, because there is a little story behind the shelters, the lockdown in Greece was like 46 days, more or less. And at a point, there was a discussion that there is people left outside by themselves. And the government said that, oh, this is not our business. This is the municipality's business. So the reality was that the central government said that, oh, no, you guys, you have to deal with this. It's not us. So the municipality of Athens, it wasn't like that, oh, we want to do that. They had to do that because the central government said that this is not, it's out of our business. So the before the lockdown was finished, it was like more 10 or 12 days that they opened the shelter for the people that had problematic drug use. This is, in my opinion and our opinion, this is points how they are interested or how they care about this population. Tassas, you mentioned before that there are long waiting lists for opiate substitution program. Did that change now with this crisis that people can maybe get their methadone for a longer period, take home? How does it work now? This was happening also before, I mean, take home for a longer period. The waiting list from time to time is changing. But the main thing is that why? Why we have to have one specific way to have access to a medicine? Because methadone or Subotex or whatever, it's a tool. It's a tool and it's a medicine. And the right place for a medicine is the pharmacist. And then people can have easier access on what they need. So you can see, yes, yes. So you suggest that there shouldn't be any restrictions on accessing opiate substitution medicines. Just go to the pharmacy, buy it for prescription, right? Yeah. And do you have a discussion about this with the decision makers? What are the, what are the arguments against this? You know, there has to be somebody overseeing the therapy of somebody because it is a medicine. In my opinion, you know, it's not like an aspirin that you can go to the pharmacy and take as much as you want or think you need or whatever. So there has to be medical supervision because it's a medicine. But what I think in my opinion is, and I think that's also we agree, is that it shouldn't be so restricted in only one place with all the bureaucratic procedures and waiting lists for these two, for these to happen. For example, it could even be in, you know, in family doctors, family GPs that could be able to prescribe or municipal medical practices and or wherever. I mean, not just go to the pharmacy and take as much as I want, but not in this kind of, you know, way because it produces time delays. No wonder. Yeah. We had a similar video with Norwegian professionals last time and they said that now during this COVID crisis, they are now considering to introduce a stimulant substitution also for those people who are in shelters, homeless people. So now we can speak a bit about the drug market in Athens. So what drugs people use and inject in Athens? How is the drug market now? Did it change during the COVID crisis? Maybe the prices went up. Are there any significant changes? During the lockdown wasn't any access even to the drug market because in an empty city full of police, you know, it's a bit, people didn't have access to buy any drugs. That means that the risk was higher to buy things that wasn't drugs. Synthetic opioids, it's one thing. Synthetic or a kind of cocaine. Also, it's another thing. And the crystal meth, it's, I think, plus the pills, different kinds of pills that they used to take. And I think that the services that we have for harm reduction has to do only with the ones that they are injecting or using opioids. We have this phenomenon for the CISA, which is crystal meth. Over five years now, and there is nothing, nothing, nothing. There is a big zero about the harm reduction for these people. And maybe I'm not wrong. It's the population that uses crystal meth at this, at this moment is even higher than the ones that injecting opioids. Nikki, anything to add from your experience? No, I agree in general. We have our history of drug use as a country is mostly many different kinds of drugs together. Okay, multi-drug use. Usually people don't just take one drug. Of course they have their drug of preference, but mostly due to economic reasons or other reasons, they use many different categories of drugs. So that's just right, either pills and the kind of cocaine or real cocaine and opioids and everything like that. And I agree that we don't have any, I can say, plans about the CISA users right now except from certain NGOs that distribute these, you know, pipettes for safer drug use. At times there is nothing, you know, stable. Even that, Nikki, I think nobody's doing this. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think nobody's distributing pipes. Okay, I think we lost Nikki a bit, but I hope she will join us again. So, Tassos, do you also have new synthetic drugs, so new psychoactive drugs coming to Greece? Yes, and I think the multi-use has to do also with the bad quality of the drug. Of course the street drugs. So it's very cheap and in a very bad quality. And this is, I think it's one of the reasons that we have this multi-use of different kind of drugs. Okay, and so what about prison, what about the situation in the prisons? Do you have any services for people who use drugs inside of prisons? There is some, but still not enough to cover the need. Let's say there isn't any distribution for safe use in prisons, because, you know, it goes like, if we do that, it's like accepting that we have a drug use in prisons. So the prison... The system is a kind of refusing the existence of many things. So this goes like not allowed to them. And that was, I mentioned before that the first thing is that you have to accept that you have a problem. And then you have to sit down and talk and find the ways that you deal with it. So the prison system is in a state of denial, right? Yes, and it's a very close system. But still there is some NGOs that they are working and trying to make a difference. But it's not enough. So you mentioned that in the Greek society, policemen and priests are very important persons. So how is the church, what is the role of the church in this discussion or in this discourse? Do they have any? Yes, but you know, in this theory of this church way, I mean, has to do nothing. It's like giving something to you poor people. Has nothing to do with the existence and the soul of the persons. That it's persons like us. Welcome back Niki. Do you hear us? And now I think she's connecting to the audio. So we also, in Athens you also have lots of refugees and migrants. And what is the situation of drug use among these people? Is there any special problem or? There is no service for, I mean, there is just one service and to advise from Keter. To advise migrants and refugees. There is a lack of translators. And of course, if they don't have the papers, they have access to nothing. And I really want to say that last night, we went to the shelter with a guy that he's a migrant. He has papers with his leg is, I mean, we deal with him and went to the hospital and take care of his leg. And the guy asked that now it's the time for me to go to the center because I have also to deal with the, with my leg and staying outside. It's, it's a risk. And the answer, we argue with the argue in a way with the security guards like, oh no, is nobody here. After some time was somebody there. And the answer that we get was like, we don't have space, but maybe we have space for emergencies. So you have to come back tomorrow morning because our supervisor for emergencies are coming tomorrow. We don't know exact time, but coming tomorrow. Okay, now I think Nikki tries to rejoin with another computer. What about, what about this drug consumption room story, let's get back to that. Do you have any chance that it will be reopened? Do you have any discussions with the ministries? How to, because you said that now there is a load. Hi, Nikki, you here? Sorry, my internet completely collapsed suddenly. I'm sorry, I'm back. No problem. We were just, I was just asking Tassos and also you that let's get back to this story of the drug consumption room. So that you said that now there is a load. So the legal background is there. So what is the still, what, what, what is the barrier? Why, why they don't open it? Is it now lack of money or political will or why, why they don't open it? I don't know. Because in different kinds of discussions, what we hear is that there is a will. It is going to happen, but it doesn't. So, I don't know if it's lack of money, if it's, you know, hesitation, because the public is also not educated in the benefits of a drug consumption room. So many times there's the belief that if we have a drug consumption room in Athens, in the center of Athens, because we cannot have it in the woods, we have to have it where people are. So there are people living in the area that think that it's, you know, we're going to have more drug users and more crime and so it's, it's need, they need to be educated. So I don't know if it's hesitation concerning this. And, and actually just correct me if I'm wrong, but this room was pretty small, right? So it's just a lot of few people and I, when I also talked to some activists, they told me that the rules were quite restrictive or they felt that the rules were quite restrictive. So it was like kind of high threshold service. So would it, would it really help the situation or if it would be open? It would help the situation. Even with, let me say that this, the previous drug consumption room, it was introduced as a pilot program. Okay, so it was working as a pilot program. In my opinion, we have the experience from the previous drug consumption room to do it right this time. But honestly, in any way that we can take people from the streets that are using with all the dangers of using in the street and all the, the, how can I say, the, the abundance of their dignity and their, and their rights and, you know, using in plain sight, any way that we can do it, it can, it will be a plus. Okay. So in Greece, you have some organizations for people who use drugs. Can you also tell us a bit about those organizations and what role they played now during this COVID crisis? Was it important that you had the voice of the users? You're talking about the state organizations or the, of people that use drugs? The people who use drugs, organizations of people who use drugs. Okay, so they, we have organizations of people that use drugs, we have created a platform with these people and with NGOs that are in the field. And we, all of us together, we try to implement, to suggest new implementations, changes of strategy, and all these kinds of things. We as praxis, we employ people that are injection drug users, we have in our staff people that are working with us. So, and in my opinion, it's a very valuable, you know, experience to have and to work with these people in, in this field. So I think that more is needed, more, you know, to, to involve them more, because they're the ones that know, they're the ones that leave it. Yeah. Tassels, do you have anything to add to that? Because you said you also have lived experience. Yes.  And this knowledge is, is, is something that the institutions or the, the governments or the NGOs need in order to, to understand more about the drug use and the addiction. Still, there is, you know, it's still, there is like praxis has some people, but still, we need more, more, more chances and for these people to, to, to use their knowledge because, you know, it's sometimes it's very hard to, to go back to the to go back and find a job from the beginning. But if you have an option to, to do something with your knowledge on the streets, it's a way out. And it's useful for everybody. So, I think that there is, there is more that we can do in this way. Now that when, when all the lockdown is, is eased, and we have, maybe we are still having in front of us another wave of the epidemic, we don't know, but right now it's a bit calmer period. It's interesting that those achievements that you had achieved in a sense like this shelter for drug users. Can they be maintained for the longer run. The bill this shelter kept open even after this epidemic is over. We hope it's a question. We hope, we hope that it's going to continue. We feel that it's necessary and, as I told you in the beginning, more need, more need to, to be implemented. For example, we have constant telephone calls or emails in praxis for people that are homeless and use drugs from different municipalities in Athens or in Greece. So, I think that this was a good, how can I say, pilot for more shelters to be implemented throughout in the center of Athens but throughout Attica and Greece eventually. What are the other hotspots of injecting or other problematic drug use in Greece outside of Athens. Right outside of Athens, there's, there are two, how can municipalities, Tassos, Zephyr, Menidii. Okay, there are, you know, mostly in the west of Athens, it's a suburb, two suburbs of Athens, if I can say, and mostly this is where the dealing is being done. But also, there is drug use. You can see buses full of people that use drugs coming and going to these places. So, the main, except from the center of Athens, the main other places there. In the, you know, outside Athens, I think that places of use and dealing are more concealed in small cities and towns. So, it's not very obvious like in Athens. A few years ago, you had an outbreak of HIV among injecting drug users. What is the situation now with HIV and hepatitis C? For injection drug users, you know? It was clearly reduced. Okay, there were actions implemented. This was a time that there was quite big cooperation of the state and the NGOs and the addictions agencies that everybody worked together. And it was a good cooperation at that time in order to increase the testing, increase the kits and the needles and all the harm reduction tools that we need. And, you know, refer the people who were testing positive as soon as possible to the infectious units and stuff. So, it was a good time. We managed to have it almost to zero, but at the last year or two because of the cat box and reduce of tools being distributed and many kinds of other reasons. Embirically, I can tell you that there are new diagnosis of HIV in people that use drugs. There is a danger, always there is a danger. What about the hepatitis C situation? Now we know that we have a cure for hep C, but do people access to this treatment in Greece? Right now, more people than at first have access, but the reality is that still people don't have access. Because there's the social security number problem. If you don't have a social security number, it's very difficult to have access to testing the viral load. It's really difficult for people to do. Also, we have to have services that support them in order to go and cooperate and be every time that they are needed to go to the hospital and to the doctor. So it's difficult, it's better than before, but it's quite difficult still. And also, the biggest problem are the drug users that are asylum seekers in Greece or don't have any legal documentation, because they actually don't have access. We don't have only Greek drug users. And I think I have to add something that sometimes, where we're talking about people that are homeless or they are spending most of their time on the streets, it's not their priority to have the therapy. So I think it's really needed that the therapy has to go on the streets and find the people. For example, what I can tell you that we have managed to do since 2012 after agreements and discussions with infectious units in hospitals of Athens. We have managed to have the antiviral medication of quite a few homeless people that are drug users in the day center of the homeless that for the homeless that we have that practice has. And because people come there to have a bath to wash their clothes to drink coffee or have a snack. We also have a primary health care practice so we give them their medication in the morning in the evening so it's easier for them to take them because they will come either way. Asus is very right when he says that when you don't have access to a house or a toilet, it's not a priority to treat your HIV or even your addiction. It's not a priority because what's left, if I don't have a house, if I don't have money, if I don't have access to toilet and water, what's the point in stop using drugs? What's the point? So I think he's right, I agree, I totally agree. If we start to speak about this like systematic factors behind drug problems such as poverty and social exclusion and homelessness in this regard, where is the Greek society now is heading to? Is there now an increasing problem like this homelessness, unemployment or is the problem has been diminishing in the previous time? And what do you expect? Are you optimist or pessimist about the prospects? Our point of view is that we are expecting a financial crisis following the pandemic crisis for many, many, many reasons. I think that we are going to see this coming in the next probably beginning of September. A crisis, a financial crisis? Yes, because it's expected, especially in Greece that it's mostly, our financials are mostly based in tourism and all these kinds of things. It's actually going to be a problem. We believe that it's going to be a problem and it will increase. But we still don't know what is going to happen if there is another lockdown, if there is a second wave that it's as large as the previous, even though Greece didn't have or we don't know if we actually had so many cases of COVID. But it seems that we deal quite mildly, but we don't know actually. So I mean everywhere we have a lot of questions we can't answer right now as we are approaching the end of our discussion. So do you have any concluding remarks on maybe some lessons learned from this COVID crisis, which you can use in the future, not to make the same mistakes, what you made in the past, so are there any lessons learned you want to share with us? One lesson learned is that we knew it. It's not a new lesson. I hope others learned it. It's really needed for people to have a place to stay. It's protective not only for these people but also for the general public, for everyone. It's no use for people being homeless. Injecting drugs is not a reason for somebody not to have a house. It's not a punishment. It's really harsh punishment for anybody too, not to have access to so basic goods and human rights actually. So we hope what started in COVID is going to continue and be actually a strategy. Our, I don't know if it's a lesson that learned but I have this feeling that the lockdown period was, I mean, okay, all these people left alone in the city center, but where the restrictions stopped, now they are the threat of the pandemic. I mean, the rest of the society that came out after 40, 50 days start pointing all these people that now these people that they left alone in the city center are a threat. We faced it having also to our team bullying us from neighborhoods that, oh why you are here and so I think maybe that period of the lockdown was a small oasis. If you know what I mean, because we wasn't, the society wasn't there pointing these people and when the lockdown was finished, we came back again pointing the enemy and the threat of the society. Well, it didn't teach us solidarity either way, the lockdown. Yeah. Definitely we need more solidarity and this is the message of today, the day action, global day of action, support don't punish. So Nikki and Tassos thank you so much for being with us. Thank you. Thank you for having us. And also thank you for those who were watching us online on Facebook. Please stay with us on Facebook and Twitter follow us and you will find out information about the next episode of stories from from the front lines. Stay informed and stay safe. Goodbye. Thank you.


Let me now quickly present the structure of the course for the various weeks to come. And the structure of the course reflects its aim, which is to teach you the fundamentals of international law. It is not about all the rules and all the institutions of international law, but about its basic principles and rules, its structural elements, which explain that it can be considered indeed as a legal order. Having acquired that basic knowledge, you will find it easier to learn by yourself some specific fields of international law, like human rights, international humanitarian law, investment law, law of the sea, etc. So after this introductory week, week two will set the stage where international law is played and developed. And by this I mean that we are going to survey the actors and the subjects of international law. International law, like any law, is about relations between subjects. And it is therefore crucial to understand who makes law and on whom it is binding. After having paid attention to the who question, we'll turn to the what question and we'll address the making of international law. What is international law means, what are the processes by which rules of international law come to existence. And this is an important, more technical part of the course, and it is usually referred to as the issue of the sources of international law. The making of international law will keep us busy during week three and week four. Then we shall turn to the how question. Knowing who makes international law and what it is, we are going to see how it is applied. Therefore week five will be dedicated to the application of international law, which requires to understand, among other things, how international law is interpreted and what is required to comply with international legal obligations, including in domestic law. Week six will also be dedicated to the how question, but turning to another issue, what happens when international obligations are not respected? How is it possible to claim responsibility for breaches of international law? And that issue will be taken a step further during week seven, which will be about seeking justice through international courts and tribunals. The pacific settlement of disputes, most notably through arbitration and through the law and procedure of the International Court of Justice, will be studied. But international criminal justice is also an important field in an important part of today's international law and will say a few things about it and about the international criminal court before turning to issues of immunities before domestic courts. And the course will end with week eight by addressing the rules relating to international peace and security. That is, all matters of war and peace, notably the rules relating to the use of force in international relations and the powers and actions of the United Nations Security Council. So that is the content of the course for the weeks to come, or menu if you want. And as always on edX, you do not have immediate access to all those weeks of teachings at once, as each one will be released in due course. Also do not worry if you are lacking a little bit behind in the course, and you can still be doing some work relating to week two, for instance, after week three was released. It does not matter much as long as you complete all the exercises and the quizzes on time. All along the way you will see there will be videos, readings, quizzes, exercises and some discussions. And we'll also have a few Google Hangouts in order to interact more directly during live Q&A sessions. The dates of those Q&A sessions are to be found in the syllabus and in the calendar of the course. So that's about it for now. I hope you've enjoyed the course so far and I hope that you'll take it right up to the end.


Wanderer down, in the form of Michael Swate, I need to be replaced with a hamstring problem. Yeah, when I got injured against Mariners, everything was going smooth, and all of a sudden it can change in one moment. But now we've got an opportunity to make amends for the last one, especially after the last game being so close. Look, I think it's just big moments that decide those games. But when it comes to Adobe, you know, the form book goes out the window. You know, you need to be there for the battle, for the fight.  Hopefully we can turn our season around from this point onwards, and we'll look to do that on Saturday. I guess West Sydney always believe there are a chance, and the fans always believe that we can win the game. West Sydney has always done that to Sydney FC. I remember watching a game in Toronto last year as well, where they won 1-0. As I said, it's those small moments that can change the game. It's about keeping in the game and being more instinctive and taking care in those big moments during the game. Yeah, you can see what it means to the club and the players, and especially the fans. I can't imagine what this Derby will be like in 50 years. I've played in Romania and Poland and Norway where you're playing in local Derbys, and it's unbelievable. And I think Australia will get there one day. But just the pure passion and aggression between the two teams, it's unreal to watch. And to be a part of that this weekend will be unbelievable. You feel that as soon as you walk into the stadium and during the week, the work up to the game is tense as well. I can feel it today at training. The boys are really focused about the weekend, especially in the position that we're in at the moment. We know we need to turn this season around and what better opportunity to do it against the rivals in Sydney FC this weekend.


Welcome folks, we have the Dow Industrial has finished down 108, Nasdaq was off 97, S&P is off 25. Gold. Gold contract up $7.60 trading at 2015 an ounce. We had Silverflat $25.54 an ounce, LightSuite Crude down a buck 87, trading $77.29 a barrel, notes and bonds. Ten year note, up 17 ticks, trading $114.23 to $30 a year up $23 at $134 and $KingDollar. $KingDollar down $129 ticks, trading $101.89, the Euro out here at $109, the Yen at, come on, where are you? You're hiding on me.  There it is. At $134 and the British Pound at $124 to one U.S. dollar. We get over and take a look at the spy folks and it looks like we got a slow roll here to the downside. You do have an expansion of volume as you went lower out here today. Let's pull it up. We just did 68,000 shares. Yesterday we did 55 when we made a high two days ago at 62. And to the NDX 100, we take a look at the NDX, same set up inside the NDX. The NDX had a larger expansion of volume on the way down, 58 million shares after making a high with 46. So bottom line, now the Q's, the number to watch in the Q's real closely folks is going to be the 31468, 313, 368 because that's the high volume high that we actually took out and it had good volume. We took that out with 75 million, but that was 83. Then we got to a higher high with 62. And then it couldn't make it. It missed that high by 15 pennies. So the bottom line is that if you get back inside that 31368, that sets up that high volume low because the high volume low in the Q's is hanging out here in spades, which is the 285. Have a great night folks. Have a safe night. Come back and visit Tommy tomorrow morning. Kicks us off 9 a.m. Great show folks. I'll get them folks.


Ychydig wrth gynhyrchu yno o'i sgwrdd o ydyn nhw'n dweud i'r dŵr ymgyrchu yn Teglaesol. Dydw'ch gynhyrchu'n gwybod yng Nghymru yn 5 o'n 10 o'u collin�u i'w ddweud. Mae angen yn dweud i'n ddweud a rai'n weithio haf I'n dweud i'n dweud. So, yr eich ddweud yna o ddweud i'r ddweud i'u ddweud i'u ddweud i'u ddweud. Felly, yn fwy o'n gweithio, mae'n dweud o bocs yn y syniadau cyfath. Felly, mae'r cyfath o'r cyfath o'r cyfath, fel y teoriad y 1.0 o bitcoin, mae'r cyfath yn ymdrych a'r bocs yn ymddangos, mae'r cyfath yn ymddangos. Felly, mae'n gweithio'r bocs, mae'n gweithio'r bocs, mae'n gofio'r bocs, mae'n gweithio'r bocs, mae'n gweithio'r bocs, mae'n gweithio'r bocs, mae'n gweithio'r bocs yn ymddangos, mae'n gweithio'r bocs yn 51% mae'n 51% gyda'r bocs yn gweithio, dwi'n gweithio'r bocs yn ymddangos. Mae'r bocs yn ymddangos, ac mae'n gweithio'r bocs yn ymddangos y cwm o'n gyfo. Felly, y gallwn yn ysgwrdd sy'n gyfrifwyr, fel ff2.0, fel Polka Dot, ddim ddod o'r nifer o y bwysig yn ei bwysig, mae'r set rhai ffanyddol yn ddod i'r cyfle a'r ddod i'r cyflwyngau yn fwyaf, mae eich ffanyddol yn fwyaf, eich ffanyddol yn fwyaf, oedd y ffanyddol yn fwyaf. Ac rydyn ni wedi fy huncwys llawer o'i cwyddiad hwn o'r cyffredinol, mae'r cwyddiad hwn o'r cyffredinol. Mae'r cwyddiad hwn o'r cyffredinol. Mae'n bwysig o'i cyffredinol ac mae'r cyffredinol yn y ddaeth cyllid. Mae'n dweud bod y cwyddiad hwn o'i cyffredinol, Brittany Collator produces it and there is some random subset of validators at all the set of validators and we divide them between parachains and this random subset checks the block says it is valid and available and they sign this header so the header goes on to the relay chain and then it is in the relay chain to account it is happening in particular when the relay chain is finalised which we do finalise by a finalised that you get Byzantine Agreement ac yn ei bod yn fflaen. Felly, yw'n gwneud y cyhofnwyswydKeith Ff2.0. Hwnaw hynny yw… Dyna'r blo'r rhan o'r opeth yn ymgyrch. Rydym i'r holl Brynion Llyfginwyr Cymru, sydd wedi bod ni dweud cyhofn yma ar ardal Y Shards. Rhywb yn gweld hynny'n c lywodau Croslink. Yn meddwl, roi byddiwch bod roedd yn ei wneud cyhofnwyr Croslink. Mae ydych wedi gweld bod y blo'r holl hwn, a'r bobl heb ac yn byw. ac mae'r bwysig i fynd i'w cyfrifio'n cyfrifio'r ysgol ei wneud. Rwy'n amlwg, mae'n cyfrifio'n cyfrifio'n cyfrifio'n gweithio'n gweithio, ac mae'n ffynaldig gennyn nhw'n gwneud y Casper FFG. Felly mae'n rhaid i gydag i ddweud. Mae'r ddweud i fi ddweud i gydag i ddweud. Fel y byddai'r ddweud i ddweud i gydag i ddweud. Mae'r ddweud i ddweud i ddweud i ddweud i ddweud. Ieidwch chi'n cymryd. Felly, y croslins yn ymdriol. Mae'r cwmno ar gyfer y Pocodot. Ond y dweud y cyfnod ymlaen i'r ddweud yw'r ddweud. Mae'n dechrau ar gyfer y ddweud. Y ffordd o Ethereum 2.0, mae'r ddweud o 100 o 1000 o ddweud o'r Sardd. ac yn Pocodoc we'r anodd yw'r gweithio'r te. Ac yna'r problemau lle'r gwahanol. A bai'n gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio, o'r gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio, ydych chi'n gweithio'r bobl yn ddiwedd ac mae'n gallu gwahanol. Mae'r gwahanol yn ddau'r gwahanol. Ac mae'r gwahanol yn ddau'r gwahanol. So, how do we guarantee this? Well, this is the reason why we wanted 1,000 validators per shard. So, what F2.0 plans is to have 16,000 initially to a million validators, all of which have every 32 units of validator. And it's like if we say three quarters of those are honest and we select say 100, then with everwhelmingly high probability, one third of those will be honest and say if two thirds of people sign to say it's valid and available, some honest person will keep it valid and available, probably a whole load of them and then it will carry on being available and valid. But it's still a sort of small fraction of the entire system that's giving us this guarantee. And sort of the question is will we be able to get a million validators? I don't know. So, if I have, well, maybe, but only if some people run a lot of validators, right? So, if I have a thousand there, then I should be running 30 validators. But what we really, you know, sort of a design goal was to make these runnable by someone on a laptop in their bedroom. But that doesn't really work so well if I have a thousand there, you see? And I'm not sure how all this is going to scale. But there's like sort of, there's network and computing limitations. And the networking is probably a problem. So, like how many validators can I run on one machine? Well, it kind of depends on how many peer-to-peer networks I can connect to. Can I connect to 30 networks? Instead of to be robust, maybe I need 30 connections each, a thousand connections. I can do that with a server in a data centre, probably if the code is good. But probably not in my bedroom. It would crash my router. And this is why we're kind of worried in Polkadot that we won't get this many validators so we're trying to design a system with less. But I'd like to sort of point out that because F2.0 has a very similar architecture, almost all parts of our solution would just apply. So you could use any of them. So what does Polkadot do? So they said before we only have 10 validators per power chain. It means we only need sort of five to seven signatures on this block. And the basic idea for validity was to rely on fishermen. So every collater will be a fisherman. There will be no shortage of fishermen. Every full node can just put up some state. They don't have to lock anything beforehand. They can just run it and then when they discover a block is invalid, that they're running, they're reported. And then people check it. And if we discover someone was lying, one of these five to seven signatures in a valid block, we'll slash them. We'll take away their stake. And we can allow sort of fishermen to stake themselves. We can ban them together if fishermen lie there. They get slashed. It's like if you're in there, a fisherman, and you want to convince all your friends to join in and say this is true, and this will ensure that we check it enough. And if you're correct, you will get a reward. But the problem is you can't validate a block you never see. And validators don't know that the full nodes never saw it. And even if the full nodes say they didn't see it, and it's sort of subjective, we know we're verifying that. All we can do is after the data ourselves, at which point if everyone has the data, we're not scalable anymore. And maybe when the validator is asked for it, it shows up. And it's correct. But we don't know we can't slash anyone. It's a kind of... The reason this wasn't a problem with Ethereum 1.0, with Bitcoin, was because the people responsible for the entire set, the consensus, were the same people who kept the data available. And at least all the miners keep the data available, as do all other full nodes. So what we really would like is to sort of do that again. And we can kind of do this. There is a solution. Everyone kind of... It's an old solution for robustly storing data. And that is you do use of razor coding. So you sort of had some redundancy to your data. And then you divide it into little pieces. And even if a large number of these pieces go missing, you can still reconstruct it from the remainder. And so we can use this to make the whole set of validators responsible for the availability of every data, with all the data without overloading any of them. So the way we do this, power chain validators, is to send the pieces of the data to every other validator. And one third of validators, pieces along to a third of validators are enough to reconstruct. And then we make voting on the consensus, particular in the finality gadget, which is the Byzantine agreement algorithm. We need two thirds of people to sign, conditional on having all the pieces you're supposed to have. And what this means is that if we finalise a block, and we're two thirds honest, then the block is available in principle. Right? We can reconstruct it. So the data, if we are now back to two thirds honest, and we'd really like that to be rational, but we can do that as well, then it's available. But there is a problem here, which if you launch an attack, we're going to catch you in the end. If these 10 validators sign in the valid block, we're going to catch them, we're going to slash them. Ideally that would be a hundredth of the stake in the entire system. But that isn't good enough. So what can happen is that these guys can send, sign in valid block, they can send a transaction to a bitcoin bridge that owns a lot of external things, bitcoin, and tells them to pay the bitcoin. And this means that if that's more than a hundredth of the stake in the system, they make a profit. And we can't revert it on our chain, because we're not bitcoin. But we can get round this if we have a protocol to catch people quickly. So if 99% of the time we catch this before they pay you the bitcoin, only 1% of the time you succeed, they expect to cost an attack, under the stake 1% of the time, they're all the stake in the entire system. It's cheaper to attack the main chain and the entire system than it is any one component. But we need a protocol for this. So what happens is that we take reports of invalidity or this time unavailability, and we get extra people to check it. We choose the extra people at random. This is important. We actually use a very viable random function. The people validating the shard were chosen at random, but everyone knows who they are. So the bad guys can just wait until they own enough, attack the rest, and they're fine. But if random people check it, they don't know. On the other hand of VRF, everyone knows who's responsible. We know who should be checking this after the fact. We know which reports we should pay attention to, and we can even pay them. And then if anyone claims it's invalid, everyone downloads it in checks. Now, there are other things you could do. You could do random texts without reports. And there's this great idea of doing fraud proofs. And there's this paper by the staffer, Abbasan, Metallic and Sonio, at which I saw what my staff are talking about at DevCon last year, where we do some erasure coding, but we sort of erasure code subblocks, and then we can check only a subblock, and it gives us a small proof. And if we have a small proof, we don't need this escalation. Or we could use succinct proofs to come into every one of the validity, and we'd use the only problem then is availability. And so any of these could be used in F2.0, if you want to do the same thing. So one of the nice things about finality gadgets is that you don't have to finalise things straight away. So what we do is we delay on voting on finality until we have all the erasure coded pieces, and until we release some time to get reports, and if they don't show up, if they do show up then we have to wait for checks.  And that doesn't slow block production. There's a bit of an issue with networking. We can't gossip all these pieces, but never mind that. We can solve that. And the result is that we can secure Polkadot with only 10 validators for parity and still have it as secure. And I think Ethereum could use a similar thing to produce a number of validators. Thank you.


Tlo what's up I just low-key wanted to come on here cuz I told you I was trying to do a vlog man I was trying to get real vloggy and I'm trying to stick to that especially during the month of December you know vlog missing things of that nature everybody be at home on Christmas break tuning in but okay so this one is you see the title I'm trying to get into that but also ain't somebody getting the victim that's tough but also so I had did a vlog like a couple weeks ago with a with the car with that Porsche and I had did a vlog with like with my new crib the new crib I live in your title so yesterday right I dropped a reaction you know can't pay we'll take it away and they was talking about removing this lady was getting kicked out or she owed somebody some money whatever something about daycare and I mentioned oh yeah the gut like the government you know the government be paying for daycare shoot my daughter is in daycare because of the government somebody made left the comments so this count this this whole spiel is addressing you first and foremost please don't speak on my daughter that's first and foremost second is you don't know me really at the end of the day so you can't say I'm a L dad man's called me a L dad a lot of y'all know what's going on there's no way I could be a L dad so this school that my daughter goes to it's a daycare but they it's a learning daycare so they teach her my daughter is two years old she knows her ABC's she can speak in school sentences in English and she's fluent in Spanish and can count to a hundred and she's a very smart girl so that's first and foremost when we're speaking on L dad before I got a car I was getting I was 10 hours per day to get there to that school and back to where I was staying 10 hours you might not have a father let's let's begin with that and that's fine we all aren't so I don't have a father we all aren't so blessed to have a two-family household but I don't know if you're trolling I don't know what you're doing but get it get off my get off take it out your mouth at the end of the day just take it out your mouth man man said I'm a millionaire too are you sick are you sick well it like I'm not Sidemen I don't compare myself to them either but like just like before you speak man get all the facts you know I'm saying I know I give y'all insight of my life when I'll be doing the reactions especially when I'll be on Twitch you know I'm saying live streaming and things of that nature which is in the description below hit that go to the description hit link tree all of that will pop up but like at the same time like if you want to do something personally in your life don't project it on the other people man that's that's that's that's really what it is man and you know envy like not envy what's the word I'm looking for I had this I had this before I came like I was thinking about it like no comparison is the thief of joy you can't compare yourself to what other people is doing man I'm moving at my own pace nobody knows what I've been through nobody knows the journey I've taken to get to where I am right now you get what I'm saying so just worry about yourself at the end of the day just enjoy the content but don't like don't speak on my child I'm a single father by the way I forgot to tell you that I am a single father there is no mom so it's just me at the end of the day and I'm doing what it takes to get my daughter to where she needs to be later in life I know that this is not for all of y'all this is just for just it's really for one person man but anyway check me out man I said in my last video that I had got a new whip I got a new whip it's right here I'm looking at it it's pressure you get me pressure the last time I had a car was when my daughter first was born I was still living in Chicago I wasn't living right I wasn't living I was outside and the result of that car it has eight bullet holes in it but but yeah I was blessed with this car somebody blessed me with this car I needed a car because like I said earlier I was driving 10 days 10 I was on a bus 10 hours bus train however it took 10 hours today to get my daughter to school so somebody blessed me with a car I prayed my prayers were answered and I got blessed with a car and I am appreciative for that but anyway check me out this is my 2015 Toyota Corolla sitting on dubs you know I'm saying aka hubcast it do got a beauty mark but that's okay I got a couple of them Florida weather was getting the best of it I don't know if y'all can see that I tried to watch the car did not come off we got limo tent in the back we I don't know what this is this is dark too but at night I can't see nothing okay let's see the front you know I'm saying you get me oh I got three hubcaps I thought I had two so okay I got three hubcaps I'm missing one but that's okay not worried I feel like I need to move this car because here's the driveway and somebody could easily anyway yeah let's take a quick look inside no cuts in this video can go yeah you ain't even see that hold on go back lock the car hit it once for the front door hit it twice for all the doors you feel me yes I got this car like two week through two three weeks ago I do need to go get it detailed it is disgusting but nevertheless it is a blessing got the car seat keep my daughter with me all times you feel me front seat you know I'm saying got a little glove compartment you know I'm saying little radio joint you know I'm saying TV I'm capping but you know let me get in for a second what's on the dash hold on they ain't gonna show up okay it's been shy but it got 102,000 miles when I first got it it was like 94,000 and look full tank of gas come on now I'm applying pressure out here that's a full tank I keep a full tank on me shoot you're doing nothing but applying pressure I'm gonna show y'all all of it all of it my bad you ain't gonna flip for me oh there we go they go to trunk good trunk space this is 2015 Toyota Corolla I don't know what type of gray that is but you know we got a Jeep stroller Jeep by Delta children this is a one keep a tambourine on me now let's check under the hood now my neighbor my neighbor is really stepping I introduce myself he owned two McLarens the man on two orange McLarens he got the 520 I think that's what it's called in the 760 he this is the 760 right this the big boy I thought this was a P1 I ain't never been up close to a McLaren like that but like the 500 and the 7 the 700 two different ballgames I'm talking he's really out here thugging it's a Hispanic man but he going crazy you know I'm saying VVTI dual don't know what that means a lot of leaf a lot of leafs just got the oil change fully synthetic that was 160 you know I'm saying I'm happy I'm happy with where I am and what I got going on we're gonna get that replaced soon but the what the point of this is man be happy with what you got going on man because it ain't what you got it's the journey of how you got there just appreciate it just appreciate it is you could be broke you could be not alive you could be homeless you could be you can you cannot even have a phone to watch what I got going on you know I'm saying I'm blessed to be able to wake up see a palm tree every day I moved out of Chicago and that alone is a blessing in itself I mean y'all I mean y'all got rough neighborhoods to wherever y'all from wherever y'all currently reside in the UK or Australia or wherever y'all reside from but I was dealing with shoot shootings every day there was a shooting every single day every single day where I live oh yeah hold on now put me in park listen to the engine cutting up out here you know I really be going crazy I just just just you know I'm saying at the end of the day all you really got to do is mind your own business you know I'm saying and when you wind up your business and you creeping guy first and you put me in the work you're gonna achieve every goal that you want to put that you set out there for yourself but like I said comparison is the thief of joy so as soon as you put yourself in somebody else's business and it's too worried about what they got going on you're not gonna be able to achieve you'll achieve what you want because your energy isn't where it needs to be you know I'm saying this car was allowed me to put out a crazy amount of content now like I have videos in the like 20 videos that I haven't even put out because I ain't got that I put out six a day cap but you know I'm putting out a lot of day and I appreciate I appreciate God appreciate you up there big boy appreciate you and I appreciate the young lady who blessed me with the car and you know I'm saying just get everybody gets your energy in the right place man y'all gonna achieve what y'all need to achieve man this is day one of vlogging I gotta continue not to look at that camera up there I gotta look at y'all but yeah man look oh yeah it's on now you know I'm saying audio hit the button AM FM CDO CD aux US and Bluetooth come on now look climate control full speed you get me stay blessed man I've got


What is going on everybody? Welcome to this edition of Market Talks. I am your host TA Tim from the coffee and crypto channel I'm so excited to be here with you guys here on the coin telegraph channel though What's over so before we even get going make sure to smash that like subscribe to the channel if you love content That brings you weekly updates on everything happening in the crypto space that you need to know about and you get to hear from some Of the most phenomenal guests experts of their field And I'm super excited today to have Yashu Gola here with me He is a Mumbai based financial analyst and technology journalist with a strong focus on Bitcoin smart contracts exchange assets NFTs commodities and the global stocks. He has been covering the cryptocurrency industry since 2014 so he knows what he's talking about. Let's go ahead and roll his clip Yashu, how are you doing today my friend? Hi, Tim, and thank you very much for that cool intro I'm just feeling very happy to see that and so excited to be here Yeah, I mean, I'm excited about this again. You just read about who you are and how much you've done I'm just like I love I love hearing first of all from people who have been in the crypto space for a long time Myself I came in during the last bear market So I haven't gotten to fully live through the longevity of what it looks like to go up high into a bull market down into a bear market And then ascend once again So I love hearing from people with your take but then you just look at those other credentials You got and it's primed for an amazing episode of market talks But I'm gonna dive in here with you man We're gonna go ahead and just jump into the deep end What is on the peak of everybody's mind right now? We just had the that meeting the FOMC meeting with interest rate hikes once again And while a lot of us expected the 75 number to come out It was the remarks by Jerome Powell that might have been the most interesting I want to start off by just open-endedly asking you what were your overall thoughts about that Fed meeting and what should we be expecting moving forward? Well, just as you said Tim's I think we all were anticipating 75 BPS rate hike and Some of us were scared about 100 BPS. So fortunately that did not happen And yeah, I was particularly surprised by the bluntness of Federal Reserve's chairman Jiro Pavel and how he came up, you know with the terms that the US economy is actually suffering and it's gonna suffer because of their rate hike policy further So for me, I think the the biggest takeaway was when I see their projected policy rate For 2023, I mean you might know that they are now up from 3.8 percent to 4.6 percent by the end of 2023 That is actually 0.1 percent higher, which is a very little thing You know what the future market was predicting and but it's still within the frame of what people are anticipating and for 2022 meanwhile, their target is about 4.4 percent. So given we are at 3.2 for 5 percent right now after the latest rate hike I think Fed is doing everything it can to bring the inflation down at least for this year Yeah, no, I agree and I think that's really interesting because here's here's what I'm kind of coming at it I was under the impression that was the expectation is that we keep raising I do think that potentially the market and a lot of retail investors are a little scared this morning I think a lot of people thought that we might get a break a lot sooner than we did But Jerome was very adamant that we are gonna do what we have to do. There's gonna be some pain But we're gonna tackle this inflation Regardless of how it will affect people now. He was conscious. He said I know this gonna affect families I know this gonna affect jobs, but we've got to tackle this inflation. What did what was your takeaway? I walked away from the meeting feeling like this was a good thing But I know others are a little bit more bearish and thinking this has a negative outlook long term What are your thoughts? Do you think that was a good announcement or or it's gonna be sending Marcus down soon? Well, Tim, this is the first time I'm looking at where being, you know, like I said blunt about what lies ahead and If I recall correctly, I think he's learning a great deal with you know from one of its predecessor So let's travel back in time and take you to August of 1979 So add back then the inflation in the US was more than 11 percent And then there was a Fed boss called Paul a Volcker and he had the task of bringing inflation down from that You know trophospheric levels. So by 1983 Volcker managed to bring the consumer prices down to 4 percent But yes, his effort left behind two economic sessions and sky-high unemployment levels But no raising great. I think I think what well is actually doing is right now is simply following the same philosophy So he's coming to the terms that yes, we'll have to see some, you know pain in the market We'll have to make people poor will have to suffer higher unemployment But his foremost and first task is to bring the inflation down without giving any thought to other things Which is what Paul a Volcker did So I think that that entire era of higher inflation and the rate hike really saw as a good case study All of us in the crypto space as well, which is why I started studying back there I started looking at it and the policies are quite similar So, you know, this is this is why I believe that what happened during the markets in 1980s When the hawkish policy were really hurting the economy the same thing is going to happen this time Wow. Yeah, no, I mean and and here's the thing like we kind of referenced this a little bit We were talking before the show and we'll kind of stay brief here and then we'll keep moving on You know one thing we knew kind of for certain from Jerome Powell was it does look like the stock the housing market Excuse me is going to be seeing a drop I think numbers that a lot of people are throwing out there is about 20 percent We're gonna see housing market drop by 20 percent That's something that Jerome was kind of direct about on housing and about jobs and stuff The question though on I think everybody's mind is is what we just heard from him implying that the stock market and crypto Namely Bitcoin does it have further to go to the downside or can we hold that? 176 on Bitcoin and just range sideways for a while before things start to get better See the rate hike is clear. I mean when you look at something like a housing market, which is always always in demand When even you are predicting that it is going to fall by 20 percent It simply translates to one thing that people do not want to spend money at this time Because there's also one more thing the rate will be higher. So the mortgages will also rise up So there is no point investing in something on which you'll have to pay some fixed not floating fixed rate for the next Multiple years. So I think the demand for housing market is, you know technically it has to go down because of the higher interest rate and stock market and Bitcoin and crypto, you know, they are not left anyway, you know, they'll have to face the same consequences We are looking at the time where we're talking about recession. We're talking about the prospect of unemployment higher in unemployment So what does happen? What would really happen is that all the retail investors and even even the institutional investor They like to hold as much cash as they want because they wait and they save for the worst day For companies, it's about acquiring so that they can they can have enough cash to, you know, run the business And they cannot like be in hard assets such as stocks such as Real estate and the same goes out for retail investors as well So what what's really happening is because of this housing the prediction that it's going to crash by 20 percent I think stock and bitcoin will have similar consequences Hmm. Okay. You when you're saying similar you mean similar to the housing market and going down potentially as far as 20 percent Uh, see we cannot predict the number because uh, I think each market has a different set of volatility It has a different set of supply and dynamic supply and demand structure So, uh, but yes, what we can what we can really look is that whatever that rallies very high very widely during the easing First the hardest because you know, it has the most profit to offer you Even if I compare today is bitcoin private to march. We are still up. We're still up by a lot So that is why, you know, bitcoin actually gives me more opportunity to take Good enough cash out compared to stocks and that also applies to our housing market So which is why I think if you're talking 20 percent about, uh, the housing collapse I think bitcoin will have more than that at least at least by 40 percent in that case I'm just giving a rough number, but it has to be like that Okay, well, let's go and let I know you have some charts available for us Let's let's talk about bitcoin price here for just a second and and let you maybe go through some charts here What are your expectations for bitcoin now that we have this news and we're going to continue We have some other questions about the fed uh numbers as well and what you're thinking they will do to the space But let's start with your chart. What are you seeing for bitcoin's future in terms of price action? All right, so I'll just uh share this chart right away So I'm kind of like, you know, mixing two things here. I'm mixing a bit of fundamentals with technicals here, which I always do Uh, so because of the rate hike fears, I mean all this time, you know, you're looking at This crash from the beginning to here. It's like more than 60 percent already And all this period we have seen federal reserve increasing their rate hike So we already know that what bitcoin is about to do when in a higher interest rate environment And all of this, uh, you know, during the time of this downtrend, we have also seen many indicators Uh, technical indicators flashing like for example in December 2021 to april 2022 we had Which some would look like a b or flag what really happened, you know, according to the technical, uh theory that defines it We had A fall, you know, this is the this is the downside target and we actually reached here quite easily So it's really happening that technical indicators are being suited Due to this interest rate environment. So whenever we're listening to a bad news, uh, these technical indicators are also working according to the You know, theoretically, so right now we have a similar problem here in in the name of this cup And handle pattern. So what really happens in the cup and handle that? Once, you know, this is uh, this is the neckline. So once the price break below this neckline Which has happened right away if this breaks below this, uh, neckline, which is around 18,505 The price Security glee needs to fall by as much as the height of this cup Which bring us to almost to $14,000, you know, and this is the projection for the end of this year coupled with all the fundamentals I discussed in the previous, uh, you know in the previous questioning So which is why I think that we have to see more pain There is, uh, you know more credibility to this model because of what we have seen, you know, in the in for example, the beer flag So I think we should be prepared to work for a drop toward $14,000 I love that you did the reverse the the reverse or inverse Cup and handle formation. I had not seen that. I love technical analysis. I love looking at charts I had not seen that but you make a very compelling point now Here's what I will ask you as a technical analyst You know your projection there you use the full length of the cup How how do you project this? I've seen some analysts use just the length of the handle Why is it that you use the full length of the cup and not just the handle? Well, I'm just following, uh, you know the patterns that has appeared before this because any any technical pattern It is shaped after starting similar pattern across the ages So even if you look at, uh, you know, great analysts like thomas bilkowski, uh, who has studied these patterns for a long time So we find out that whenever these patterns form Most of the time I'm talking about 71 to 78 times Uh, the percentage either the successful percentage at which the price meets the profit target up in hand Is actually equal to the uh, the height between the cups speak and the cups bottom So it's not something that can be, you know, that can be explained by secondary analysts like myself But we are simply following all the data that is available and their outcome. Yeah, because it has happened 79 person times It's the probability of it's happening 79 person in the future increases Man, that's good stuff, man. I love seeing that. I love love listen to other analysts Let's jump back now that we kind of have a price target potentially for bitcoin again That's pretty similar. I've heard people talk about 15 16 You know, some people are going down to 12 and 11 Um, but you know 14 is a good little number to keep our eyes on Let's go back to the fed and let's just talk about the market as a whole Because I think something you said earlier was even if the price does drop to 14 in the long term You know prices if people are DCing and buying right now, that's still a good purchase long term Let's talk about the space.  It doesn't sound like drone pal has shut that conversation down Although it does look like it will be a slim chance. What are your thoughts about that? Uh, I don't think Pavel and his officials can give the economy a soft landing and again I'm taking the example for the Volcker times when I told you that there were two economic recessions during the period of rate hikes When the inflation was above 11 percent Now we are fighting an inflation about 8.3 percent and we have to bring it down to 2 percent. That's a big gap and uh, which is why I I totally think that uh, it cannot be a soft landing and Look at looking at Pavel's recent statement. I mean look at their words. They agreed that in 2022 the GDP growth Will be you know, it's they have downgraded the GDP growth from 1.7 percent to 0.2 percent, which is too much and meanwhile, you know in 2023 also They have gotten a half point here cut to 1.2 percent. So what's really happening there? And you know, there's actually one more Indicated about Employment and they say that the unemployment next year can go from 3.9 percent to 4.4 percent So all these indicators come together. They tell you that yeah, things are looking looking pretty bad And the soft landing is just a term. It's just a mean term for now So if we keep going on if the inflation does not come down and because there are external factors behind it America is not in the control of inflation anymore. They are relying on external factors such as the war in Ukraine And then there is another geopolitical issue emerging in Taiwan the china All of these things can actually hamper the process of bringing the inflation down. There is a huge possibility And i'm not saying it's going to happen I'm saying the investor need to be cautious about it and this cautiousness really Drive the sentiment, you know, whether whether we want to put money in something safer or something very volatile like stock Real estate or bitcoin So because of this cautious nature and whatever happens, but people are cautious about it they're going to be more invested In in in a non risky asset compared to bitcoin or something else So yep, there's not going to be a soft landing to answer your question Yeah, I mean that you kind of just open up a can of worms there issue Like if if that's true that the These outside factors are going to be the main determinants of if we can fix inflation And I think drone power thinks that you know with what they're doing the interest rates will help But let's say there is let's say that stuff heats back up over in europe between russia and ukraine Let's say that the things start heating up over there with china and taiwan And and there gets to a point where it's Legitimately outside of the control Do you think that there's an outside chance that even some of these more powerful countries? They're civilians Start moving their stuff into crypto start moving towards cryptocurrencies because even though, yes, the price might be down I mean those are going to be great buying prices also the decentralized nation nature of cryptocurrency Could be very advantageous to get away from the fact that the centralized u.s. Dollar centralized british pound chinese you want all this stuff these things are being so suppressed Could we see the population actually start to address and move over towards crypto? Or do you think at this point that's a little bit too far too far-fetched? That's that's too far-fetched because uh, you know, we have come a long way in the last decade But infrastructure wise bitcoin is still not available to masses I mean even if you want to if i'm somebody in ukraine and i'm in the middle of a war and i want to Just transfer all my bank assets into crypto I'll need to make sure that I I go through these K by cm and to go through this so many other thing that is typical bank needs and after that i buy it There are there are of course so much resistance And so you cannot just like anticipate people to simply jump on crypto Specifically when you know most of these people might not even know what it is probably and so I think during the time of distress People cannot go and start start studying it for months because they need to get out quick They need to be so so the first thing they actually think about is the cash that is available in hands because it's easily accessible Which is not in the case of bitcoin. So yes, uh, people don't have the time to study it And I I think there will be adoption like that. Yes, we are looking at an adoption at a later stage But not in not in a very sudden quick manner. I don't think that is that is the case with bitcoin for now That makes a lot of sense, you know with that being said though, uh, you know Now we're having to put our faith in the the fed They got to they got to do what they got to do to fix inflation. Do you think that they have it in them? Do you think they have a good plan? What are your thoughts about their moves going forward? With the limited amount of control they actually have do you have faith in that plan? What are your thoughts? Well Let's not have faith in fed because they have failed miserably in the last two years when building things things and uh, it started with that Mean thing they said, you know the inflation is transitory when half of the world was screaming on the top of their lungs that is not And uh, suddenly a fed found itself, uh, you know in the middle of new problems The war happening in Ukraine the food crisis the fuel issues and uh, now they are which is that like I said Now the problems are not the one they have seeded the problems are outside And now they are simply reacting to whatever economic data they can see And like I said, you know with going back to walker even even during the times of walker's rate hikes This guy took two steps back the central banker i'm talking about, you know, who raised the interest rate in 1980s to bring the inflation down He actually took the step back as well. So for well, it seems to me is simply following the same template Of course, nobody wants to see a recession and that includes him But it's tough to bite and he would read just strategies based on economic data So let's not expect a fed pirate I think he will just wait and watch because their dot plot is also the same I said it's a 4.4 percent in 2022 and in 2023 is 4.6 percent So we are looking at the rate hikes they are prepared to face inflation and to bring to two percent from the current levels Yeah, I I hear here 100 percent. How much longer do you think then that this uncertainty will last? Like do you think this is something that could run all the way through 2023 into 2024? Do you think it goes longer in 2025? Are you expecting us to have some form of relief in 2023 because everything we're talking about here? This is big stuff. We got to be aware of it. But how long should we be waiting on To maybe look at a ray of hope coming on the horizon See the question actually comes from a perspective when you are a bitcoin holder or you are like exposed in the risky assets So yes, if you're talking about that and if you're thinking that yeah, there's going to be a light at the end of the tunnel Yes, there will be Because uh, see even if you look at the summary of economic projection that came out yesterday It is actually speaking about you know Introducing less rate hikes as the year progresses. So by if I remember correctly It's 3.4 percent in 2025 Compared to 4.6 percent by the end of this year. Sorry 4.4 percent by the end of this year So even they have completely, you know, they have the idea that Yes, we will be able to bring the inflation down within the next 12 months And after that we would need to tone down. We need to you know, scale back a bit and during that time Yes, there will be enough opportunities for people who have invested now when the bitcoin price was going down And they were buying the dip I think there's going to be a good opportunity to for them to really secure their profits So, yeah, I'm just speaking from the bitcoin holders point of view. But when I when I speak like completely macro Uh, the and if you want to talk about next 12 months. Yes cash is the best place to stay in Uh, which is why I'm saying that uh Let yes, we anticipate that the Fed will scale back after a while We'll they'll dial down the interest rate hikes, but that thing is not going to be there until 2024 according to the dot plot Right, right. And and that dot plot, you know, I know some people don't really take that to account I know Jerome Powell even was on words said, hey, this is what we're thinking right now. This easily could change But you know, one of my takeaways and I want to hear what you think about this one of my takeaways was This is going to be a fun next year. What about by fun? I mean not very, you know, it's going to be painful It's gonna it's going to have people reaching deep into their pockets It's going to have caused some families to be very concerned on if they were able to feed themselves and their children and Um, keep a roof over their heads jobs will be lost However When you're looking at investing in things So it's it's sad that I have to kind of put the retail investor On the side for a second and just think about investors. We're talking about whales talking about institutions that are constantly trying to get richer and richer The investor loves stability of not of knowing what is coming next and and something that I thought that I saw with that Jerome Powell Announcement was the clarity that he's giving about what the future looks like. We know pretty certainly the rest of this year We're probably looking at a 75 and a 50 increase and then over the period of next year potentially an increased 50 Investors love knowing clarity. It might not be fun It might not be what they wanted to hear But at least if they have a feeling they can predict what the future looks like they can invest wisely Do you agree with that sentiment? Or do you think that this what just happened yesterday is going to cause a lot of people? Yes, we might crash down to 14 000 But do you think that could actually scare a lot of people and create more flood in the market? Or do you think that was actually a bringing of clarity for investors down the road? Without really like depends on if we are talking about investors who are trading markets for more years Are the professionals with how your market survive? Or they are just newbie, or they are just for mowing in and they are completely effuding when the time comes So I cannot actually answer the question that how people will behave. It's a psychological thing But having a certain clarity like I said really comes when Fed itself is clear Right now Fed cannot be clear about their Inflation targets They cannot be clear about how much time they need to bring inflation down to two person because like I said the Factors are external And that involves all of us Anticipate dotplot can give us an idea about how positive they are thinking what they are really thinking But dotplot is not the final final resolution It really comes from the fact when when the supply chain comes back to normal when the war is finished And when you know all the problems we are seeing across the world, you know in terms of economic collapses and Sri Lanka and Pakistan the China's real estate bubble issue The UK inflation the Euro-Gas issue and then the inflation in the US and so I think We cannot actually predict. This is the most I have to I have to be sorry to say that But this is the most unusual times in economic history. We are faced after the world war two There has been nothing like that. We have not had this, you know Great money supplying billions of dollars even in the time of Walker, which I am quoting repeatedly We did not have that money supply This kind of so this is a very very unprecedented time and Which is why the best bet for any retail investor right now if they are, you know, they don't have the appetite for higher risk If they don't have spare cash to you know, they cannot actually bet their money in so Which is why I said, you know, it has to be it has to be in markets that can guarantee you certain returns Which brings me back to yield, you know bonds basically sovereign bonds German bonds and Any kind of cash settled or cash related instrument? This seems to be the only safer choice for now That makes a lot of sense Well, let's let's transition here a little bit. Let's talk about regulation here. Uh, you know, that's another thing that's going to be hot Uh, coming into the next couple of months. We got a lot of people working in Washington We have a lot of people working around the globe trying to figure out cryptocurrency moving forward and we're you know Price aside What do you think the future of crypto regulation looks like not only in the united states, but maybe worldwide Are you in the moment thinking that all the regulations will be good? Is there any particular regulation? You're concerned about that people need to know about maybe they haven't heard of See, I would just first clear that I mean, I'm in favor of regulation because it actually makes the space more safer And uh, it makes sure that all the investors have an insurance net So in a way it leads to adoption But yeah, it comes with its own sense of and and we have been told that crypto is a breakaway Technology it has to be this an arctic version of finance so Personally, I don't think that the regulation can be a bit of an issue for crypto as far how, you know, these countries are gonna deal with it um For now, I think we in that study stage People are looking at it. Some some some governments are outright banning it. Some are trying to study it. Some are Just using old laws or to, you know, bring to bring a cryptocurrency in the new law So everybody has their own opinion. There is no unified response so far And it clearly depends on how us, you know, as crypto lobbyists and how we can fund this market how we can Talk about a unified law because we're talking about a global technology like internet. So, um In my opinion, I think us can be a benchmark which it has failed so far to become And if us takes a if us takes a good stand about it if we if it really clarifies the regulation because it is taking its time Yes, but when it really comes up with a clear clear No methodology about every kind of asset out there. I think it can give other countries to really follow the lead Because uh, yes emerging economies, they don't have the resources to really go after this technology and employ people because they are already running behind So many other things which is why we are seeing, you know, india are imposing this really You know completely unfair 30% tax on crypto transaction china is completely banning it So Yes, we I think I think us has to lead the market moving further But if the regulation comes I think it's going to be good for everybody Yeah, I think you're right I mean, it's one of the things we we've joked about it on our channel Coffee and crypto that the word regulation is like a lot like the word moist. No one wants to hear it But I agree with you that I think it comes with adoption It has its side effects. The question is how severe the It's severe how severe the regulation is and currently I know in the United States government There are certain people for example senator Elizabeth Warren who would love love love love to have very very constricting Regulation on it and I'm very much hoping that we get some some balance make sense type of regulation I love the fact that the sec gary genseler as horrible as he is for the crypto space has conceded Bitcoin probably does belong to the cfdc But I'm going to transition to kind of change it just a second I'm going to get your take unless I see some questions in chat that uh, you know, we can finish off with I want to get your take on ethereum speaking of regulation and speaking of gary genseler You know ethereum's got a had a little bit of a roller coaster ride here over the last month or so We finally got that ethereum merge And there's a lot of fundamentals that could lead to it being one of the leaders of this next season. However They found themselves potentially in the crosshairs of gary genseler in the sec What are your thoughts when you're thinking about regulation and you're thinking about what we're hearing from gary about ethereum Do you think ethereum could be in trouble or do you think this is not really something ethereum holders should worry about? Well, I cannot take a statement the grain of salt. I mean, it's just a statement. It's his opinion Like people before him have given their opinion and they are getting completely wrecked in the court because of that Uh, what gansler is saying is that because the stakers are in america. They are officially the property of the u.s and That is I don't know how to pronounce that but he is simply to equate that he's saying that if you rent your property If you don't you really stay to somebody that property is mine Uh, so there has to be some logic. I think he's he's a big guy. He has reached to such a great chairmanship level But to really speak like that without even understanding it simply says that he doesn't understand things about ethereum itself Uh, he does not understand the concept of having decentralized nodes. He does not understand how staking works He just thinks that you know, it's uh, he just read some ways centralized. Maybe so. Yeah, they they have to be treated like xrp Man, I mean, um, what which what should I say? I mean it would be controversial But I don't think uh, but but yeah to answer your question. I'm sorry to answer your question I don't think it means anything in the longer run. I mean, it's just one man speaking something about ethereum And he's gonna retire somebody else will come I think it's interesting that you know, because I think you're right I think there's aspects he doesn't understand, but I don't know if you remember this One of my co-workers are reminding me Last year There actually was some bullish narrative when gary was appointed to be the head of the sec You know his his background. He actually used to teach blockchain technology We thought here's a man with some fundamental understanding. He should be pro-crypto and he's been nothing But uh, but a deviant the whole time he's been there. He's been anti-crypto Even though, you know, he's not necessarily the worst for bitcoin when it comes to all the rest of them They're just always looking over their shoulders always gary coming for me today We thought that was going to be bullish But so, you know, I love what you're saying there You think that he might be understands blockchain technology But he doesn't understand the decentralized nation of staking and what that means different than securities Uh, see I blockchain technology. It's a very new there is no expert out there I really hate the term expert when people say i'm a blockchain expert How can you teach blockchain technology when blockchain itself is evolving every time we look at it? There's a new project coming up and introducing a new format. We did not know proof of stake a like a couple of years ago Now we know I don't know what he was teaching you can learn But I think the book he had from the way he learned from was the same book you and I read But yeah, he stopped reading because he got under pressure. Maybe he just stopped reading He just stopped getting updated by what's happening in the space Um, so I'm not gonna I'm not gonna call him an expert just because he was teaching some people Uh, nobody's an expert. Uh, it's just it's just a Fall thing to say that you're an expert in blockchain technology That's a good point issue that I'm gonna steal that point from you when I'm talking about it I you know, I got to sit in the room during one of Charles Hodgson's meetings Where he pretty much echoed kind of a similar thing and you know, everybody knows how brilliant he is But he was saying like listen, dude, we're we're three five years from fully understanding what we have like We have so many things that are going to come out here over the next three to five years And then the three to five years after that will blow that stuff out of the water So I could not agree with you more blockchain It's really hard to call yourself an expert of blockchain with it ever evolving. It seems like every single day Well, I'm gonna look at chat here your shoe and we're gonna be wrapping this up. Let's see questions I did see you know a similar question what I asked and I told you a forehand. You said I got your name correct Yeah, shoe gola. You said not a lot of people get that correct I'm a I'm a I'm a name obliterator, right? I know I'm gonna obliterate this one three a beat Hey, um, maybe you could print. I don't know like I'm I'm so sorry. Is that three sri. How do you pronounce that? Three should be three. I'm so sorry He pretty much he first asked the same thing I was asking Will the government regulation in the coming year squeeze the blockchain utility kind kind of similar but maybe update a little bit Do you think it will squeeze the blockchain utility and maybe squeeze it to be more powerful? Maybe squeeze it restrict it. What are your thoughts about that? I would always say that look at internet Yes, people have controlled it people have, you know, imposed new regulation on the top of it But then you also have secret things. I'm not trying to speak like anything illegal here But the people who want to step away from government who wants to have a private channel. They will still have it So regulation, like I said, it does not really hamper growth. It actually makes it's safer for other investors to come It makes people, you know, feel more confident about investing So some kind of regulation is good. Otherwise, we'll be looking at all the frauds. We have just business this year, you know, all the patrols and withdrawal tracks and the defi exploits We don't need that. So I think having regulation will actually solve the problem then hamper So, yeah, that's what I think Well, yes, you thank you so much man for coming on today and joining so many great nuggets of wisdom from you Everybody watching right now, not only should you like this video subscribe to coin telegraph Make sure you follow your shoe on twitter You can see right now his twitter handle right there. Follow me as well at tims underscore ta for more crypto updates Yes, you it's been a pleasure, man. I'll see you next time we have you on here. We'll have to get you on back real soon Thank you, Tim. Thank you. It was great talking to you Yes, and everybody else out there make sure you tune in every single day for more content Just like this here on coin telegraph and every thursday you tune in at 12 p.m. Eastern standard time for market talks That's all I have for you guys today, but I will see you in the next one. Peace