The following is a presentation of TFNN Trade what you see With Larry Pezzavento Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER> Now Larry Pezzavento Looking good Billy Ray feeling good Lewis well folks if there were any doubt that the royal family eats their young It's in it's in the news in the UK. You can't find anything in the paper or on the TV about this But Prince Andrew has lost all of his titles. Okay, he's lost all of his roles in the military He's lost all of his money. She's cut him off at the knees. So he is persona non grata I mean and that's her son. God help her if it was her husband All right, let's take a quick look here. We're waiting for JC. Hey, well, thanks. Thanks a lot Basil Anyway, let's take a look here at this folks giving you an example of what news is like January remember when a chap acquitted happened and In the president or a senator Ted Kennedy got in trouble with Mary Jo Kopeck and she died That was on page five of the New York Times. There was a reason for that. That was July 20th 1969 that's the day we landed on the moon. Everything was about the moon That was on page five of the New York Times. So the news is really controlled a lot and believe me. They're strong Our administration is a strong Figurehead of the What I come I don't know what the word is but they go along with what's happening in London with the royal family So that's why you're not seeing anything in it, but it's a big deal in Australia It's a really big deal in the UK. So I just wanted to bring that to your attention that these news things are total baloney now Yesterday when we were talking about some of the things that I had learned. Ah, we've got mr. JC Parrots coming on from all-star charts pretty soon. I think I see the charts coming into the room folks We're really lucky to have this young man. You remember his name because he's going to be very very famous He's already famous. He's going to be even more super famous. I can promise you that I I'm really impressed with what he does and Hopefully we'll be able to talk to him pretty soon JC. Are you there? I? Certainly am Larry. Hey, thank you, buddy I really appreciate it. Why don't you tell us the folks what you're looking at today? And we really appreciate your time because I know you're super busy with all the things that you do So tell the folks what you're looking at It's another day Larry a lot of charts a lot of good music. Maybe some tacos later some good wine I don't need much, you know rates are going up and people were breaking out I Find it hilarious You know I live in the United States very close to New York City, you know, I lived in California for five years I am surrounded by individuals who their home country bias oozes out of them You know everything in their world is high growth tech, you know, United States centric Screw the rest of the world screw a commodity screw energy High growth high growth high growth and those same people are just very very frustrated in an environment where interest rates are going up And those investments tend to underperform While the rest of the world that it has much more exposure to some of these cyclical areas like banks like energy Like commodities natural resources Industrials materials are out performing those high growth areas in a rising rate environment Which if you look at the bond market, we are obviously in and I just you know as an observer of markets and market Participants I can't help but notice the frustration out of these Americans with their home country bias That's the understatement of the year Go ahead my friend Australia and and sentiment is at a point currently That is very different than when we came into last year and for that matter when we came into the year before 2019 was a heck of a year for us investors and they came into 2020 super bullish right before COVID and completely got crushed And then we bounced back quick. They came into 2021 super bullish What happened all those growth names peaked in February bio tax Chinese internet All those growth areas the ARC funds the IPO index all peaked in February small caps micro caps struggled for the majority of the year and Therefore came into this year the most bearish and pessimistic that we've seen in years And I think that's a bullish catalyst for stocks Mm-hmm certainly could be Are you feel about that Larry? Well, I think we're in for a little short-term correction whether it's a long-term correction or not I have remains to be seen but I'm a short-term swing trader, you know, I'm more concerned about how much I risk not about how much I'm gonna make but We've done okay from the short side the last couple of days, but that could end in a moment, you know You know, I'm looking at these the natural resources, you know Look at things like metals and mining free port Mackamaran copper oil holding above 80 these energy stocks breaking out Financials breaking out, you know materials in general particularly the base metals the precious metals can't get going Nobody wants those rocks, but the the base metals continue to act. Well aluminum the stocks They look very different than these growth areas and when you look at the composition of some of these other countries around the world Particularly like in America you look at areas in Europe. They are very looking UK for example UK has four times the exposure to natural resources than the United States And you know what their exposure to technology is in the UK less than 1% So you can't you could you you have a hard time finding a more different market?  This is the United Kingdom This is a big market and it's completely different than what you're seeing in the United States and the outperformance is quite obvious and and why Looking at your charts with your cup and handles and head and shoulders patterns that you have in there That's really cool. I don't know if you know this enough, but my my daughter went to school with the folks over at With Bill O'Neill and as a matter of fact Well, that was her first boyfriend was Bill's Bill's son and she actually goes with him again So it's really quite quite funny Yeah Yeah, that's what's on my mind crypto currencies. I think hanging in okay if you want to look at that real quick I think that's an interesting scenario Go up shows what you're looking at there cuz I I'm very interested in the cryptos because I think that's gonna be I mean, that's they're here to stay in my opinion. I don't think this is a bubble I mean bubbles go up and down. They don't stay for 12 years You know, so I think that this is gonna be pretty exciting I'd like to buy this stuff down around 25,000 but they don't always do what I want to do Yeah, agreed for me. I have a hard press to believe this is a bubble if the price of bitcoin is at the same price It was a year ago, right some bubble looks more like a consolidation and a digestion of former gains If you ask me the question becomes how long will this digestion last and you know just this chart alone I think really tells an interesting story because you got former resistance, right early 2021 right around 41 10000 we broke through there hit that 65 came back down the crash really precipitated when it broke back below 41 Retested that level on the bounce Ultimately back again this summer sold off ultimately broke again all of that former resistance turned into support Classic polarity same stuff Edwards and McGee were writing about in the 1940s We came back in the fourth quarter retested that level and now here We are again Larry once again back at the scene of the crime I think if we can hold that 41 Re-tested 65 is inevitable, but break below 41. I think will be critical I think 30 is a near certainty and most likely probably 20 after that 41 is really important Hey JC, thanks for joining us today, buddy I know you got to do your twitter show coming up, but we'll have you on again soon and may god bless and stay on the Green side of the grass You got it. Larry. Thanks for having me buddy. Thank you very much folks one Carlos Parris All-Star Charms folks you cannot miss You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market You're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future, right? 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I started my really heavy study back in 62 63 When I was just getting out of college and I got into my mba And then I really started getting into it, you know our 60s, but I've done a lot at least 55 years I've been doing this. I thought I knew everything back in 1988 I was in switzerland if you remember I told you about this banker deal And I was in Zurich and I was being interviewed by the European version of the wall street journal by their Zurich correspondent who was Beatrice schauffhausen She was absolute. She was a model and she was absolutely gorgeous And so we spent about three hours being interviewed and stuff and I was using every move I had none of them worked And then she said, you know, you're wasting your time and I said, yeah, I figured that and she says I'll introduce you to my boyfriend. She said when we leave and so we went through all this stuff And so we went down into the lobby and there's there's five or six. It looked like the secret service You know, folks, it was a secret service. She was a mistress of france. We'll meet her and That dude from france. He was the king of france. Whatever he is over there I don't know what is but anyway, I got to meet even say hello and everything went back to my room when I I was trading and all the things that I were in was in that day. I got stopped out of all of them And I figured out what I did wrong and I had my stops in the market reversed right after I got stopped out And I got stopped out at the exact 1.27 of those numbers I didn't know what those were until about three months later when I met brice gilmore in chicago One of my students came up to me says you got to come in and listen to this guy So I went into the room as I walked into the room Brice saw me. I'd never met him before he had seen my picture and he said hey Pesavento is in the room come up here young man. He said sit down. You might learn something and everybody was laughing Which was you know, it was a big joke. So I went I sat right in the front and after 10 minutes I was flat blown away. I saw that the 1.27 the expansion what it was and I knew what that was I knew I I didn't know what 127 was and I didn't know what 786 was I mean the square roots of 618 and 1.610. I mean doing these numbers. I don't know this Well, what's happened to me this week folks is the same thing what I'm looking at when I look at that smh art He showed me some things that I'm going to share with you later in the year But uh, he asked me to do the work myself. He's you learned from somebody that taught him And so what I did was I he said pick pick seven or eight things that are really crazy today And check and see how it works. Just you know, there's certain parameters that you have to use and everything Folks every single one eight for eight. There was soybeans. There was wheat The s&p you're not going to believe this. We've had a big swing in the s&p, right? We had a high last yesterday at what 47 30 Okay, and you came down and you made a new bag bang down low and we rallied up 60 handles Why don't you do the work yourself and see where that rally stopped? I did nine of these that I didn't do them. I watched what they were doing folks This is something really exciting. I've never seen anything like this. I mean I I know I'm only I've only looked at a few samples, but my goodness I haven't been excited about something like this in a very very long time I'll share a couple of them with you because I think it's that important And I know I'm not really worried about it because most of you are not going to do the work yourself So that's not a problem at all. So let's get this up here. This is the one from Early this yesterday. I believe let's get this up here. I wanted to get this to your attention here Hold on one second And there's where we were yesterday. This was yesterday's You'll see when we were on the when we were on the line there between 11 and 12 o'clock You see we went up and rallied right around 11 30 up there at 47 20 Which was a 61 percent retracement and I mentioned I said if it goes below that low at 46 95 We're going to go down hard and we did and look what we did just right on the close We rally up to 4700 and you know where we went today. We made another abcd down there at 47 who way way way down there boys and girls Let me let me give you a 10 cents worth of advice If the market closes really badly today doesn't make any difference if it closes near the low You ought to be short something in the in the stock indices whatever you can afford the The dow Jones or the well not the nasaq is too wild But the dow Jones or the s and p because this is setting up for a very very nasty day Coming in on tuesday. Remember we have a holiday Coming in on monday So the markets will be open sunday night and they'll probably be open a little bit there too So we'll be able to see what we're doing ruby. I'd be really careful about those rebies on these puppies This this has got a lot of downdraft to it darlin Okay, let's take another one. Here's look at this. You're not you're not going to believe this one because I I know you won't but this is a case. Here's yesterday's action This is for blast yesterday's high, okay This is a 15 minute chart. You can see 11 o'clock in the morning We were making a 382 retracement when the s and p was making a 61 perfect 382 15825 to the tick breaks one more time makes another 382 15700 and then last night it made another one at 15,050 and went down and broke all the way down below 15,300 Or whatever it was and then it rallied it rallied like there was never going to be another bear market and guess what? Do the work yourself boys and girls. I ain't going to help you that much, you know I don't know. I just think this is really interesting of what we're looking at I mean some of the things that changed shared with us on monday where it was really spectacular You have to know that with these different things that he's was watching and they certainly Falling through and remember he's mentioning the Fed is not out there trying to protect their Their quorum anymore. You never know what they're doing. I mean, they could be heavily short the market You don't know what they were they were short the market during 1929 during the crash For heaven's sake. So you can find that in the book I'll reminisce not reminisces of stock operator, but my own story by bernard baruch. It's in that area So we were watching that now here's one even even more exciting and we shared a little bit of that Yesterday and that was this is the this is the e-mini Let's try it again larry. This is the natural gas. Let's get this up here There's a natural gas from that high that we made back there and look at the 382s folks. This is one day's action The the the red line happens to be the ai but look at look at the 382s on this thing Give me a break Do the work yourself? This is one hell of a thing. I mean I and I've been doing this for so long and You know, I know as much about fibonacci is you know, probably half the people anyway But it's very interesting to see this happening Now someone's asked a question about the heating oil fact that it went up and made new highs One of the things that you do when you're watching these things remember We were looking at 262 yesterday and what we did was we watching a 15 minute chart We had a really nice break We went from 262 all the way down to 258 that was four handles 1500 bucks And then we went up and made a new high at the 1.618 last night at 264 and a half And we backed off a little bit from that level. So that's what we're doing right now and watching it I'm sorry. We'll be for for Butting in but by golly Uh, I think you're using a stop. So you got that one in the right handle. No question about it looks pretty good now Since we watched the dow Jones, uh, quite a bit here I wanted to well, we've got to take a break eight seven seven nine two seven six six four. We'll be right back Are you having fun trading the markets? 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I posted the chart of the E-mini to go through Yesterday's action and I you can see what's happened today But I wanted you to notice on this chart that the bottom there the 1.618 expansion that held for well over four or five hours Last night of the end course this morning it broke down very hard made a new low by Considerable amount and from that level if you'll do the work yourself Check and see what the 382 retracement was today I think you'll be surprised. All right. Let's move on to something else That people are interested in these days thinking of tlt and stuff here is the treasury bond if you remember we were looking for a buy down there on the 10th on sunday And the buy came in of course on monday the 11th and you'll notice we excuse me monday the 10th And if you'll take a look at this we've had a perfect three drive to a top pattern up here Two full handles what we expected it to do you can see we have a little guardly that informed here Earlier today, but that was a three drive to a top pattern It reached the profit objective that we were looking for so that's another pattern nothing more than a simple a bcd This one's happens to be perfect If you don't believe that just go look at the just take your a leg and measure your b leg Measure your c leg coming down to 786 Measure your expansion up to 1.27 count the look at the bars just count the bars This is a 15 minute chart You'll see that they they're equal in other words the ab leg is equal in time and the ab leg is equal time in price I mean this is this is an absolute perfect three drive to a top pattern You cannot miss it the first top comes in at you know the 1.617 the second comes in at 1.27 I mean that's just perfect when you've got everything lined up. Does it work? Hey, I'm going to show you one that doesn't work in just a second But this is one that works just absolutely perfectly Now since we're talking about things that do work Let's see one that doesn't work and believe it or not I I I know you're going to find this hard to believe but the gentleman that i'm talking to over in switzerland He gets all my stuff He has for many many years and he saw the short that I put on with JP or excuse me with uh, what the heck was it wells fargo I was selling wells fargo and actually the price was 56 72 with a buy stop at 58 40 I was alerted to the fact that the As that the They were going to be earnings for wells fargo today. There were five bank earnings today folks all of them were about the same Everything was about 10% only one of the five went nuts and guess which one it was. Yep I just got stopped. I mean, I didn't do this trade. I just put this on for purposes of you know What I'm trying to show me risk control, but 58 40 that was a dollar 70 of gay The reason why I came up with a dollar 70 I'm not risking more than 3% on anything that I do I did that just not in my not in my cards The reason for that is the mathematics behind what I do which is you know Brought out in the floor traders handbook over and over again Is that you got a a chance of winning on these trades better than 62%? Okay And the payoff is better than three to one and that that gives you a sharp ratio, you know out out of sight So that's that's why it's so important. I'm willing to take that 3% risk now. Maybe Monday Tuesday I'll be re reinstating to looking at that but he told me he said it's gonna it's gonna take your stop out He said and I and I said I said okay if it does no big deal I didn't know what the earnings were going to be but the fact that he told me that with all this stuff He's been telling me. I said, well, I got to pay close attention to this stuff. Anyway Anyway, we'll keep a look keep an eye on some of these things as we keep moving on now. I do want to Talk just a tiny bit what jc was talking about and that was the the bitcoin folks the real key price level Toot, there's two really key price levels 46,000 on the upside and 40,000 on the downside if we get any higher, you know is I'm never bored Oh dear Oh, there's there's somebody just skyped me that their troop replacements are someplace I don't know what that Fundamental stuff is okay The bitcoin 46,000 on the upside is very important because that's the 382 off the high of 52,000 So if we don't get about 46,000 during this time, but if we go below 40,000 folks, you're looking at 25,000 dollars Most probably in bitcoin and the way some of these things are acting if we close really badly today in the stock market I mean that you know down 400 500 points in the dow You know down 80 90 in the s and p and maybe down 3 400 more and in the nasdaq if that happens And if that happens look out because monday is going to be you're going to be closed on Monday and you're going to come in on tuesday and these markets are not going to open higher That's the way that's the way I look at it. I that's my two cents and i'm sticking to it I don't know where the markets are doing right now whether they're holding up. Okay, they've Never made new lows and some of these things which is good So that's it we'll be able to pay very very close attention to these things as we go through And look at some of these things as we're moving on and on All right now we've got the gold coming down. We've been up and we've been watching notice folks that the uh I got to do something for mr. Z here. We're we got down to 18 16 in the gold We think we got a chance at 1809 maybe on sunday And we'll be able to see if that's going on and we'll have a pretty good idea Of what's what's happening with that also on that those treasury notes that we were long we we've suggested today Um or yesterday, I believe that you know, we're really close to those Looking at that bond chart that we were area where you know, we had to have a profit in it So you certainly uh had a nice little profit in that one So that's a key one, but I got to show mr. Z this one. I I he has to see this I hope mr. Z you're watching because I know you like the beanies, okay And I did this long before it opened. So here is the pattern that I was looking at mr. Z There's the abcd pattern after the report. You see per just like that heating oil Exactly the same pattern and no difference abcd the market breaks from 14 dollars Down to 13 64 downs 36 cents and the high today was supposed to be 13 77 and three quarters I was 13 80 and we went all the way down to 13 65 So that's why on these shorter term timeframes. You've got to pay attention to this if you want to You don't have to if you don't want to but if you do I highly suggest it I'm going to be doing a a day trading webinar here coming up in probably late february early march and this is going to be Uh the 100 well not 100 it's going to be probably 70 of the theme and then i'm also going to be working on How to show you folks how to do some of these artificial intelligence You know pictures yourself because you can't do it because the market repeats over and over again That's why when this gentleman uh over in switzerland, uh He's got a funny name when he told when he when he told me what he was doing I thought I had seen everything just like I did before I met brice I thought I'd seen everything it wasn't till I saw brice and and I started meeting him in 88 all the way through 94 He came to Tucson a few times but for six years He came to the the house in in pismo beach and stayed for one two three months at a time Mark would come and stay a month at a time and other people would come in too But I learned a lot from him just by watching that I never had a losing day with brice in the room Because his work was so uh intense that uh, yeah, I had losing trades But I didn't have any losing days You know, I'm you know, basically I look at smaller timeframes to make a living You know, I'm a shopkeeper someday. I have bacon for sale someday. I have uh socks someday I have uh, you know women's hats I just depend on which looks good to me and that's one of the things that uh, I was looking for Yesterday, uh, we were talking about this one on the air and I'll talk about this when we get back This is the natural gas from yesterday folks and we'll talk about this one when we come back Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the bay area? Including the surrounding st. 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That's tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv Okay, folks. I posted that chart of the natural gas. I just wanted to show you what happened yesterday We remember he had gone up $7,000 on wednesday on thursday. What did it do and gave it all back? In fact kept going lower and lower We're getting close to something that could be very interesting in natural gas here folks Give me give me a second here and I will bring it up if you remember here Just a few months ago. Well, it was one month ago.  We were looking for this big abcd pattern To complete in the natural gas down around the 350 area. The low was 353 now We had this huge run up yesterday as you can see here and then they run down again today Believe it or not folks. We were trading it. I believe 412 or something earlier in the day But what what is really interesting about the natural gas now is if you'll Break it down to just a little bit. We'll be able to see it here. I think I'll be able to see it I've approached the chart here somewhere now. Where did you put it cowboy? That's not it. This is it. Here's what we want to see Okay, here's the last several days Going back last well, it's the last two and a half weeks. I guess three two and a half months Here is the move here that we had in the natural gas. You can see yesterday We went from four Four 420 all the way up to 486 488 was a high We went from 488 and we come down now look where we are We look where we're trying to get to folks right around this 405 403 level That's going to be where the old highs were back in here before we made new lows And it's also going to be a 61 percent retracement level So that's going to be a pretty good chance now. We've come down really hard here in two days I mean this is 12 13 14 two days we've gone we've gone up We've gone up 7 000 and come down 7 000. This is not for the faint of heart So what you have to do is you got to be able to find out a spot Where you're going to find out where you're going to be risk controlled about and that's what we're looking at The Only thing boring The only the only boring days is your trading style. It says yeah, it is boring You don't have to listen to me much anymore boys and girls. Hold on just a second here. Let's get back here We got another question. Someone's asking. I think do we have someone calling in? Um, do I trade not daily but just about four days a week? Yes four days a week on the natural gas It's one of the better ones to trade for it's basically just like pork bellies used to be I don't know what that stuff, you know, I you know, I really don't know the units All I know that at each tick is worth 10 bucks. That's all I need to know so That's uh, that's pretty much uh what I watch but uh, it trades beautifully. Well, you can see it I mean, well, I've posted so many of these darn charts You you know, you could be able to you know, write a book about the darn stuff Look at the well, I showed you the other one the other day But this is uh, this is uh, what we're trying to do is to line things up One other thing I wanted to mention here getting off the track yesterday If you remember, we were talking about with the Dow being up 150 yesterday And the Nasdaq being down 200 it was because of stocks like Boeing You see Boeing had this, uh, it went through the 38 to retracement there, but uh Thanks, Shane There's gonna be there's gonna be a is gonna be a revolt. I think hope boys and girls let's move on here Anyway, when you see a stock like this and the Dow up so much and the rest of stocks down It's because one or two of the high-priced stocks are tough That's why the Dow sometimes is a little little squirrely because you got one or two stocks in there That are making the Dow move You know folks if you want to see a real bearish chart go look at Walt Disney Go look at Walt Disney and just look at the abcd that we just completed at the 3a2 Disney's got big problems. I don't know where they're coming from, but they got big problems I don't care about their draft kings or all that other stuff. Look at that chart of Walt Disney. That is not a good chart It is not a good chart. It just flat out isn't and we got a break coming up here And if I got a chance I will bring that up. By the way, if you have any questions You can call us at eight seven seven nine two seven six six four eight Oh Al says don't even bother right now because the lines are just backed up Maybe you'll get through to us on Monday and we'll be able to be able to answer their questions there But I will do that chart on Disney because it's just an absolute Bearish chart. There's no question about it here. Let's just move here if we have any questions We've got a break coming in four minutes, but I don't want to break anything up You know what I could do since this is our show and we're going to do this right now. Hold on one second here Jim Bartolioni is going to be our guest. I believe on Tuesday boys and girls And I'm going to I'm going to do this right now this chart on Disney unless it's changed is so bearish That way and hey Walt Disney's like muck mcdonald's man. That's just a mother god in country stuff So let me get the old chart up here of the old Disney Reno and we'll see what we've got here And uh, we'll go from that level right here. Okay, what are we doing here? Okay, all right Hold on one second here and let me get this up here for old Walt Disney here. That's dis as I recall Let me see where we are Yeah, I to me and hey, I could be wrong. I might have looked at a different chart, but I don't think so No, I haven't done it. Oh no wonder. Hello Gee whiz. All right, you'll be able to see this in just a second. Hold on Uh, this is worth the price of admission boys and girls. So just give me a second I saw it here last night. Oh my goodness. You'd never believe this. Hold on and they will be up We'll be to you in about 30 seconds or less So all I got to do now is to come up and I got to change the scale of the settings Only takes a minute here getting a little more better at this as I go through these late years of the old Life hold on a second here and where are we all I got to do now is find that little puppy And it'll be here somewhere. Where is it? Walt Disney Disney Disney everywhere Oh, there it is. Nope, that's not it chart chart chart chart. It's got to be under chart. There it is There it is Disney. Here we go. Now. Take a look at this chart. You want to see a various chart? This is the old program with the old a p c d boys and girls. There it is right there You'll see it. There's your 382.  That was about a week ago today The cat's out of the bag. It's from 160 to 149. There's a perfect garterly pattern in a 382 I mean, it's just spot on at 160, you know Now the the one I looked at with Wells Fargo, you know that one that you gotta take a 3% loss But look at that one. You see that's a very interesting something's wrong with with Walt Disney folks I don't know what the problem is, but there's a there's a there's trouble in What do they call that place fantasy land or whatever is Used to love that place my favorite place was the pirates of the Caribbean and the one with the Little house what's with the little small world the small world was one of my One of my really big favorites that we used to go there all the time the magic kingdom We were with Drexel one of the biggest perks We had at Drexel folks if you were the leader in in your group for making money that month one of the things that you got is you got a birthday day at the Pirates of the Caribbean, which was mr. Walt Disney's private Residents and they turned it into a beautiful place for parties and stuff And the Cinderella and Mickey Mouse and Minnie and Pluto all the gang would be there And you they'd be giving gifts out and having the cake and everything as the people were Writing the things through the pirates of the Caribbean That was a big deal when you had a birthday at disney everything private private Plus you had a badge that you walked in front of all the lines and you didn't have to wait in line at disneyland Not so many lines anymore. Hey, we'll be right back folks eight seven seven nine two seven six six four eight Billy Ray Valentine Capricorn Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument You have to practice sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts at tfnn You'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis And it's not just dry tedious text either tfnn airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com and tfnn's youtube channel with tiger tv Live every market day from 8 30 a.m. To 4 p.m. Eastern for free Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds tiger tv has eight different shows with expert hosts to help You make the right moves with your money watch online at tfnn.com or on tfnn's youtube channel And become the investor you were born to be tfnn educating investors You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market You're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future, right? 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I'll post the chart here of the nasdaq on the weekly basis You can see here that we talked about seven weeks ago back in When was that that was way back in december sometime december 5th? I believe six or seventh seventh I believe we've had a little bit of a break now. We're getting ready to take out these lows here In fact, we already have and we're going to find out whether we hold up or not as we go But as I mentioned before if we close really badly today I mean down like 300 points and more than 300 more than making new lows on the dow New lows on the s&p new lows in the nasdaq You don't want to be long stocks. You don't have to be short But you don't want to be long any of your stocks you tighten up your stops anybody want to these folks out there have not Kathy woods and all these other people they've not experienced these really vicious bear markets that occur Every so often we're beginning to see them. I mean we've we've already pointed out You know these markets are just not reacting well to the news at all We have good news and the markets, you know react poorly With the exception of will's work But anyway, that's the main thing that we're paying attention here to do to see that and also we got interest rates are going higher Has nothing to do with the stocks but has to do with the bond market You know the two ways that you can you know get rid of bonds There's only one way there's only two ways for the government's going to be able to get Through this bond fiasco that we printed all those bonds one is by hyperinflation. Okay, that's coming You can see it in gold and all these other things too The second thing is is they could renege against the currency and they're not going to do that So it's going to be hyperinflation. So they're they're priming the pump right now. So get ready for it That's what I see whether it's going to happen or not I don't know now we had that big move in the euro and it's backed off just like we expected to do We went up and made that that big abcd up there at that one at 1480 and now we're starting to back off a little bit So these are things are telling us that we got to get ready next week because We're going to be rocking and rolling. We're going to see some real serious stuff happening in these things. So Just keep your powder dry. There's going to be a lot of good things going on As we look at these markets coming out into the not into the future And that's my story and i'm sticking to it If you have any questions wait till monday live every day in an attitude of gratitude and may god bless


Hello, this is Gerard Leonhard Futurist, CEO of the Futurist Agency, together with Uri van Geest today. Uri is an accomplished writer, and his book is that he has co-written with Salim Ismail, it's called The Exponential Organization, and it's making quite a few waves, and we'll talk about that shortly. He's also the Dutch ambassador for the Singularity University. And so what we're discussing today as part of this debate about exponential organizations and digital transformation is the media publishing and entertainment business. We both have quite a bit of background there, I used to be a musician, producer, bunch of music startups, and this is actually how we met, long time ago. And so let's start with this whole idea of saying what has actually become out of the media business, you know, going from physical products and terrestrial transmitters and TV towers, you know, to the internet and over the top. What are the key things that you see in the next five years? Yeah, so I think the media business is quite different from, let's say, 10 years ago. On the one hand, the business models are different. You make more money using, let's say, offline events or spinoffs from your digital media outlets. Basically, the digital media itself or themselves are more for research or customer data points to aggregate, that you can leverage using alternative routes like, for example, education. You can go into training as a media company, there's a blurry boundary there. You can use those research insights to create offline events and monetize that instead of just digital publication. Can we slice it up into media being entertainment and content and advertising, because advertising is also media, right? So if we talk about the product, you know, or the service, there are key trends, for example, that everything is becoming fragmented. So I can watch anything I want to do with the internet. I have everything on demand as a flood of content. And then we have media advertising, which is becoming automated and using artificial intelligence once again. So there's a couple of challenges, I think, the disembodiment of media, for example, the DVD used to cost 25 euros, now Netflix is seven euros a month for essentially anything. And so the margin is going, you know, it's just collapsing. So what do you think is going to happen to media companies when that whole thing becomes from physical or from restricted environments like cable to an open platform? Yeah, so I think what you see in most vertical markets is a trend of technology, deceptive, then disruptive, then you have decentralization, democratization, demonetization, and that's the end of the story. So that's also happening in media. That means that there will be a lot of consolidation. If you are a medium category publisher, you will be in deep trouble.  If you are large, you have triple A quality, you will consolidate power like New York Times, blah, blah, blah, New York Washington, all. So there will be a lot of consolidation at the top end globally. If you are a local player, you will be increasingly in trouble because it will move towards a global playing field. So we can already see that in young leaders, for example, of viewers. If you have niche content, you might be able to survive and to monetize it. If you can create your competitive advantage on a global scene, that is. That's going to be harder. But isn't it a way that we had giant media companies in the past like the cable companies or Time Warner or whatever, or MTV or Viacom or whatever, dominating to a large degree. And now what's dominating is what generally are called the siren service. The giant things in the sky like Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Google, Alibaba, you name it, right? They are sort of running the show and then we have this giant over the top organizations like Netflix, who is not quite the same level and of course, being more close than all the others. But isn't that kind of replacing the old big guys with the new big guys? Yeah, to a certain degree, that's true. Even though there's also disruption going on there, right? For example, you have Netflix and then you had Ariel, but it was discarded. Then you have right now, popcorn time as disruptor. So there's a lot of interesting innovation there happening, but I do agree with you that right now, if you look at the big players, of course, it's Google, Apple, etc., Amazon and Netflix dominating the fields. Well, if you're looking at Spotify or Netflix, it's the same effect as an artist or writer or whatever, Netflix, Amazon, Spotify, the same thing. Your individual amount per stream, per use goes down from a lot, probably too much, too very little. And so that can only scale if you have 6 billion users. Yes, that's true. And so how do we get to the money there? Now, the point is, actually, you talked about that yourself 11 years ago, with music and the future of music. So what will happen is in most cases that you, at first, have to give away more value to your end users for a low price point. You get more customer data and research and data points. Then you can leverage using offline events or constructs, whatever, or offline events as a medium. So you have a different way to monetize your business. It's a more long term view. More added value. Yes, yes. In which you, at first, have to give away a lot of stuff and then later on monetize it. Yeah, so I mean, let's talk about the flip side of this. I think this is doable and I've been looking at possibilities and if you look at the new media companies like, for example, what the Atlantic is doing on Quartz, you can see this heading in this direction. But let's talk about advertising, because that's the other part of the equation. Advertising is currently increasing at 6% to 7% per year. So it's actually not declining, it's increasing. But the money is going to the new platforms now, actually. So I always tell the publishers there's money here, but you're not getting it. So what's going to happen with advertising in your view? And how can you be a part of that in the future and not lose out? Yeah, so I agree with you that most platforms will increasingly consolidate their advertising revenues like Facebook, Google, etc. This will be a hard play for classical media companies to monetize because it will move away from their core business. Advertising business itself will become more real time, more dynamic, more AI driven than already today. It will become much more personalized than today. For example, what I expect that you can ask higher CPM rates based on targeting on additional variables like NeuroStates, Quantified Self-Censor data outputs to personalize content, advertising, and services increasingly over time too. So you can monetize that at a higher rate as a publisher. I think there's two or three things that you speak to that are strapping the core with me. I mean, first, the fact is that advertising is becoming content itself because it's going to be good, otherwise nobody wants to see it. Second, the metrics are completely transparent. So you get almost 98% or so transparency of what the money is actually doing. And the third thing is fragmentation. So 90% of the internet in 10 years will be mobile. So that can be completely trapped, which is kind of scary for privacy and things. But that's really going to change. But my view is that to wrap this up in a way, I think the media business has gone to the valley of death, as I call it. Coming off the other end now. It's quite clearly going to be 5 billion people connected on mobile devices, advertisers wanting to find an audience. There is money there, in my view. The media business could be very, very strong again in a few years after reinventing the monetization model. I think I would like to build on that a little bit. I think it will move away from mobile over time because it will move into the environment, right? The internet of things, the wearables, it will be in your car, it will be in your building, it will be in your home, your toys. So you see a fragmentation of touch points and devices over time, different by the internet of everything. So this is going to be interesting because the interface is essentially, as you say, moving away from the fixbox into the environments of becoming invisible, could be any wall, could be anything, could be any projector, could be anything I wear on my iris, whatever, right? So the mobile becomes essentially every surface. And I think that is extremely positive for the media companies. It may be creating all kinds of problems with humans for their own interfaces. Having natural user interfaces is really quite different. Like Microsoft is doing with the HoloLens and those kind of things, that's going to be extremely powerful and be vastly addictive, if you can imagine. So if you enter that, I suppose it could generate lots of money. Anyway, it was nice to have you here, Yuri. We're talking about the Future of Media and the exponential organization. This is Yuri Fanges. I'm Gerd Leonhard. If you want more information, please go to thefuturesagency.com. Thanks for tuning in.


Before we talk about the design of complex systems, let's start by thinking a bit about design itself and our traditional approach to it. Design and engineering are very broad and fundamental human activities, and there are a lot of different definitions for them. But at the heart of many of these definitions is design as a process. That is a process where we conceive of an original or improved solution to achieving some desired, optimal end state. We then identify the set of factors and constraints within the given environment, and lastly, developing a model for the arrangement of a set of elements to achieving this desired end state, that is, the design. Thus, whether we are engineering a bicycle, new production process for our factory, or designing some healthcare service, we can say design is about the arrangement of elements within a system in order to achieve some optimal global functionality. Within engineering, this optimal functionality is typically talked about and quantified in terms of systems efficiency. A design paradigm, then, is an overarching approach that consists of a set of basic assumptions and theories about how the world we want to engineer works, coupled with a complementary set of principles and methods with which to approach this design process. Like many other areas, our modern engineering paradigm inherits its theoretical foundation from modern science, and in particular, classical physics. A key method employed by both is that of reductionism. Reductionism holds that a complex system is nothing but the sum of its parts, and that an account of it can be reduced to accounts of its individual constituents. The reductionist approach results in a vision of the world that is made up of isolated components that interact in a predetermined linear fashion. What is sometimes called the clockwork universe. As we put our reductionist goggles on, everything starts to look like little deterministic cogs in a vast machine. Thus, the reductionist approach applied to engineering results in the decomposing or breaking down of whole systems into discrete components that can be isolated and modeled using linear equations. The overall functionality of the system is then achieved by defining an overarching top-down plan as to how all these components will fit back together. In order to achieve this overall functionality of the system, it is important that the elements can be constrained, that is to say, they are relatively static and their behavior can be predetermined and thus controlled. The reductionist approach has worked well in the engineering of bridges, airplanes, and skyscrapers. These systems are designed to be, and we want them to be, stable, predictable, and reliable. Reductionism works well when we are dealing with systems with a low level of interconnectivity and interdependencies where the components are static, controllable, and the environment relatively unchanging. But what happens when this is not the case? When we have to design information systems where the components are highly interconnected and interdependent, when we have to build sustainable cities with multiple stakeholders that all have their own agendas or infrastructure systems that will have to operate in a changing, uncertain future environment created by climate change? In this case, our basic assumption or design paradigm has to shift to one that is more focused upon the connections that integrate diverse components into systems as opposed to our traditional component-based paradigm, and this is where complex systems design comes in. So let's talk about the key features to this new design paradigm, all of which will be major themes throughout the rest of the course. Firstly, complex systems are open systems. In traditional design and engineering, we are dealing with things like chairs, bridges, and buildings. They have well-defined boundaries. We can fully control all the elements within these boundaries and fully design the system. This makes them orderly and predictable. With the design of complex systems, what we're dealing with instead are open systems. Think of electrical power grids, cities, or the Internet itself, a massively modular, distributed system. It has no defined boundaries, people and devices couple and decouple from the system. It is not random, but this world of complex systems is not so orderly. It is, to use the catchy phrase, edge of chaos. No one is in control and no one fully understands or can fully design these open systems. Next, connectivity and networks. Whereas our traditional approach is very much focused on components, that is to say designing things, complex systems design is about connecting these things together and networks are the platforms through which we connect things into systems that deliver functionality. Instead of focusing on the properties of things, that is, how to make them bigger, faster, and better, the primary focus here is on how to design the protocols and interactions so that diverse components can work together. Think about smart power grids. What we are designing here is a network through which multiple diverse components, meters, power generators, and different electrical devices can communicate and interoperate through a standardized set of protocols. Next, self-organization. What we're used to designing are monolithic technologies. They are controlled by one master plan that is imposed on all elements in a top-down fashion. One monolithic design constrains all the components within the system. This is how we make buildings, cars, and airplanes, and it works well until the components of the system are autonomous. When we try to apply this approach to designing something like whole cities, the results can be disastrous. A massive waste of resources and hugely alienating and disengaging environments. In these complex systems, the real capacity to act, to deploy capability, lies on the local level. Think of social networks. A social network without its users is essentially nothing. It is, at the end of the day, the users that really create the value of the system. Trying to control the network will likely end in overburdening it with system-level constraints. Users will become disengaged and simply opt out. In complex engineered systems, global functionality emerges from self-organization of elements on the local level. Therefore, we do not seek to design the system in all its details, but focus instead on configuring the context and the local interactions that may lead to effective global coordination. Lastly, adaptation and evolution. In classical engineering, the components to the system are specifically held static so as to coordinate the system as a whole. This requires prediction of the environment in which the system will operate, the conditions it will face, and the tasks it will be required to perform. In complex engineered systems, the components have a high degree of autonomy. Whether we're talking about websites on the Internet, where people choose to build their houses or invest their money, the elements are adapting to their local environment and thus the state of the system is a product of the evolutionary process that results from this. Their capacity of adaptation and evolution allows for these systems to operate in more complex and volatile environments where complete knowledge of the system and its environment is impossible. To summarize, we can say complex systems design represents an alternative paradigm to our traditional design engineering approach. This traditional paradigm is focused upon the development of discrete, well-defined objects by breaking them down into individual components and then coordinating these components within one top-down global design. These systems are designed to be static, stable, and operate predictably within well-defined parameters. Examples of these are cups, washing machines, bridges, houses, and cars. In contrary, we have seen how the paradigm of complex systems design is focused on the development of open systems that integrate diverse components through dynamic networks and that global functionality emerges from the bottom up as elements interact, adapt, and evolve over time. Classical examples of these complex engineered systems are the Internet and cities, but also healthcare systems, electrical power grids, financial portfolios, logistics networks, and transportation networks.


Dewitt Scholar profile, Randy. Shapes, letters, and multi-colored rays appear over photos. A brown-haired boy looks over his shoulder. Behind him, a curly-haired woman smiles. A boy wears headphones. Another boy stands next to him in a computer lab. The boy looks at a computer monitor. A hand pets a yellow Labrador. The boy wears a blue shirt and name tag. He smiles. Sheryl Bergstahler, director, Dewitt Center. My name's Sheryl Bergstahler, and I'm the director of Accessible Technology Services here at the University of Washington. And part of my role is to direct the Dewitt Center, where Dewitt stands for Disabilities, Opportunities, Internet Working, and Technology. The first program we funded started in 1992 is called the Dewitt Scholars Program. The Dewitt Scholars Program is where we work with teams with disabilities to get them ready for college and careers. Randy was in our first group of Dewitt Scholars, and now he's an adult and moved on, but he's still engaged in the program. He's still giving back to the Dewitt Scholars Program by mentoring younger people but also sharing with the world how to make this place a more accessible place. Randy, Dewitt Scholar and Mentor. I'm Randy Hammer. I was one of the first Dewitt Scholars. I started with Dewitt in 1993. We were one of the first summer programs. I believe there were 16 of us that came to the University of Washington. We spent two weeks on campus living in the dorms, and experiencing different types of science, technology, engineering. All of us had disabilities. I, for example, am completely blind. Both of my eyes are prosthetics. Other folks that were in the group, we had some that were hearing impaired. We had some with mobility impairments. A very good friend of mine has cerebral palsy. I specifically remember one of the Saturday night that we were up here, and we all sat in the common room of the dorm. We had TV going. We were all just being kids, all being teens, and we were existing with each other in the way that all teens normally do. And it was so, looking back at it now, very special even though at the time, it was just another night. But thinking about the context of that night now with my perspective is actually a very special memory. I'm glad I brought that one up. On film, I learned what college life is like, and most importantly, I learned that the early bird catches the shower. It's a good program because it teaches you a lot about science and math and engineering. I learned a lot about engineering, both from the labs we did and just from the professors and teachers that were brought in. Through Duet, I found an internship at Warehouser. Warehouser is a forestry company, and through that internship, I got on with their IT department. I had already started to think about computers as my eventual career, and so this kind of meshed very well for me. And I worked through that internship, and not only came out of that internship with a permanent position at Warehouser, but ultimately became a senior member of the team that I was on, was promoted multiple times, and it was all due to the fact that I got my foot in the door, and Duet got that for me. The mentorship that I had early on from Duet was sufficient to show me how to actually mentor people, and that has specifically influenced my career because I manage people now, but it also has allowed me to be a functional mentor for existing or new Duet scholars, the ones that are coming into the program now. The only way to become a leader is to observe other leaders in the field, and sometimes those leaders are successful and you learn from how they do it successfully. Being a leader is so key to what I do today that it's difficult for me to break that down, but if I go back in my own history and think about the things that I have done in my life, all of that rolls back to the idea of how do I take the people that are around me and through my own actions make them better, and that really is the idea of mentorship, and that's what Duet does. We started the Duet program with funding from the National Science Foundation, and now it's grown to a collection of activities that are sponsored by many groups, including the National Science Foundation, the U.S. Department of Education, the Department of Labor, the State of Washington, Microsoft, Boeing, many other funders. All of our projects are centered around the success of people with disabilities in college and careers using technology as an empowering tool. For more resources about supporting students with disabilities, consult uw.edu slash d-o-i-t. This video is funded by Accessible Technology Services of UW-I-T. Copyright 2021, University of Washington. Permission is granted to copy this material for non-commercial purposes, provided the source is acknowledged.


There is a new way to polygraph someone and this is a company called Conversus, or no, just Converse. Converse. Converse. Converse. Converse. Hmm. The product is called iDetect. Aha. It can detect liars just by looking into their eyes. Or can it? Let's just say this. There was a case a few years ago, a volunteer track coach in New Mexico on trial for allegedly raping a 14-year-old girl. His lawyer asked the judge to admit the evidence from one of these iDetect tests, a lie detection test that's simply based on eye movements. Well, his attorney said he took the test and he passed, that he told the truth, he did not rape that 14-year-old girl. The judge agreed, five of the 12 jurors wound up voting not to convict, they declared a mistrial. Now, again, that's not the same as saying the guy didn't do it, but it is a mistrial, therefore he's not guilty. The chief executive says that they've, well, they may retry it. True. The chief executive, Todd Mickelson, says they have built a much better truth detection mousetrap than the good old polygraph. That eye movements reflect their bearer far better than the old polygraph. They have 600 customers and they say that this is all about the polygraph in more algorithmic clothing. Listen, the polygraph measures blood pressure, breathing, sweat to figure out if you're lying. And the way he describes it, again, this is the guy who is in, Todd Mickelson, the chief executive of this company. He says the polygraph is emotional, iDetect is cognitively based. And he explains eye movements would be affected because you have to think harder to lie than to tell the truth. The polygraph measures blood pressure, breathing, and sweat to determine the lying. That's what sounds better. You see. Oh, yeah, it does, doesn't it? It's like a new coat of paint on that point. New coat of paint. Yeah. Like that spin? I do. That's a good one. People have been trying to make these predictions about who's lying and who's not for a long time. There's a psychologist at Brandeis University conducted some of the leading research in the field of truth detection. Oh, yeah, Leonard Sacks. That's the guy. Yeah. He says science really hasn't progressed much in the last hundred years.  What judge in New Mexico would have allowed the evidence from a brand new lie detector test no less, not even an old fashioned polygraph test that's been used and studied over and over and over again, whether it's reliable or not, is up for argument. This is a brand new version of it. The American Psychological Association says that most psychologists agree there is little evidence that polygraph tests can accurately detect lies because good liars can cover up ticks. 1988 federal law bans private employers from administering these things. Most states don't accept them as evidence in court either. So make way for eye detect. It's terrifying, isn't it? They said that describing this as a groundbreaking technology may be jumping way ahead of it because it's okay to be skeptical about all of this. We see things. They use an example of the soft drink industry. Sodas with diet sweeteners that come in and are supposed to be game changing. There's no side effects. It's like real sugar doesn't change the formula of your soda, whatever, but then you taste it and you're like, nah, I don't know about that.  Yeah, maybe there is something wrong with that, but they always fall short of their promises. About 15 years ago, they came up with a lie detector based on a functional MRI, which says that the blood flow to the brain could hold the key to truth detection. But it didn't meet scientific standards, cost and intensiveness, further inhibited broad adoption. You don't want to get an MRI while someone is throwing questions at you about whether or not you've ever hurt anybody. The police like this thing. They say people will come in nervous because they're expecting to see what they have on TV. You know, you're hooked up to this machine, you're sweating and it's crazy. This, he says, it's just clean and quick according to Lieutenant Josh Hardy of the Wyoming Highway Patrol. They've used eye detector screen more than 150 prospective job candidates in the last two years. And it's, it's pretty cheap. It's about $5,000 for this system. Let me see it. Look at my eyes. No. And then, no, I am lying. My question is, if you get tagged, tabbed, like if this, if this guy, this volunteer track coach accused of raping a teenage girl, what if he's innocent, but he's terrified about the prospect of going to jail for 15 years? That's why they're thrown out. That's why polygraph tests are thrown out all the time. It doesn't make any sense. Okay. Look at, look at me. Not gonna. Look at me. When we come back, swamp watch, we'll talk a little bit more about that, uh, three hour conversation between Joe Biden and President Xi from last night and how things are going. Do you think I'm funny? Layla, I didn't even look at you. You could, you could not see. My eyes were closed.