Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Naval War College graduation ceremony. I am Captain Patrick Keyes, Dean of Students and will be serving as the MC for today's ceremony. You are welcome to take photographs at any time throughout the ceremony. We have official photographers taking pictures today and you will find those photos post in our Flickr site, found on the back of your program for you to download. At this time, as a courtesy, please put your cell phones on silent or vibrate and please remain seated for the student procession. Please rise and remain standing for the arrival of the official party, National Anthem and invocation. The National Anthem will be sung by musician first class Dan Smith from the Navy Band Northeast. Please join him in singing the United States National Anthem. To a sea by the dawn, sir, what's so proud whose broad stripes and Todd Chaplin of the Naval Leadership and Ethics Center will deliver them. Almighty God, we pray your blessing upon these graduates of the College of Naval Command and Staff and the College of Naval Warfare. We gather to honor this afternoon. Your word reminds us as iron sharpens iron, so one person sharpens another. For the past academic year, these leaders have had their minds sharpened by the rigors of study and new ideas, their experience and insight tempered on the anvil of reflection and critique and their critical reasoning refined through the crucible of academic discourse, debate and discussion. We give you thanks for sustaining them through every test, exercise and paper and the perseverance that enabled them to run the course with endurance and ask your providential care and blessing be upon them. Bless also the faculty and staff that have instructed, challenged and demanded more of these students that they might be fully equipped and ready for the task ahead and for the family and friends who have encouraged and supported them. We give you thanks. We pray that you would use this ceremony to stir in each of us a renewed desire to engage the challenges that lie ahead and affirm commitment to fulfill our role in serving the cause of security, prosperity and peace for all. Looking forward to the day when your truth, justice and righteousness shall reign. Amen. Ladies and gentlemen, please be seated. It gives me great pleasure to introduce the members of our official party. Captain Edmund Hernandez, Chair, Joint Military Operations Department. Professor Walt Wilderman, Director, College of Distance Education. Dr. Michael Pavovic, Chair, Strategy and Policy Department. Dr. David Cooper, Chair, National Security Affairs Department. Dr. Phil Hahn, Dean of Academics. Dr. Jay Hickey, Associate Provost, United States Naval War College. And Rear Admiral Jeffrey A. Harley, the 56th President of the United States Naval War College. Sir, the stage is yours. Good afternoon. I am particularly honored to be here today at this graduation ceremony to celebrate the extraordinary accomplishments of our graduates, the Naval War College class of 2017, and to formally mark their transition from intellectually curious students at arrival to the enlightened and dedicated professionals in strategy and national security they represent today. I simply hope my words today reinforce your experience of this last year and perhaps in some small way tie together the threads of this rigorous year of education. For today, you all join the long line of Naval War College graduates that extends back over 131 years. You are the new line of leaders from a list that includes the heroes that helped make our nation and countless more unsung heroes whose daily efforts defined our nation and set the course we follow today. Through your dedicated efforts and hard work, you have also been able to refine your war fighting skills and grown as members of the profession of arms. Although each of you worked very hard to be here today, let's not forget the tremendous efforts of our brilliant and committed faculty and staff. To the faculty and staff, I would like to say thank you and bless you for your gift to this new generation of leaders. I also want to say thank you to the families and friends who join us today. Thank you for supporting your spouses, your children, your brothers, your sisters and friends during their hard work here at the college. Your presence not only makes this celebration more memorable for your graduates, it recognizes your role in the accomplishments that we celebrate today. Life in the military takes a team. Your love, encouragement and support are the foundation of all that we do. Thank you for your love and support. Speaking of foundations, the Naval War College Foundation selflessly gives millions of dollars of support to ensure the continued greatness of this great college. I remember joining the foundation as a way of continuing my ties with this special institution. Many thanks for the foundation's generosity. Bless you all for what you do. So it's been almost 20 years since I graduated from this amazing institution, your Naval War College, and I remember how I felt that day. I remember that feeling of accomplishment for completing a rigorous course of study, a two-year master's degree in 10 months. I remember the joy of having a new set of skills, a new mental toolkit perhaps, the new ability for critical thinking. I remember how odd I was by this extraordinary faculty, and I am sure some of my professors were equally odd that I was able to somehow squeak by in this environment so far from the operational environment I knew so well. I remember the camaraderie of my classmates, both international and from the then alien worlds of joint services. I was a better officer from those days forward. And I remember the slight hint of uncertainty, a trepidation, perhaps even a small touch of fear about the road ahead and the more demanding assignments that potentially awaited me. I trust some of you may have some of these same feelings. And now you go forward, not merely to execute, or God bless you to lead others to the gates of hell and back when called upon, but rather to think, to help shape the contours of the debate, to help assess and clarify the seemingly impossible, to provide the key argument that carries the day, to be the light of the ethical standard for others to emulate, but most importantly, to distill the essence of courage in all that you do. Albert Einstein said, any intelligent fool can make things bigger, more complex and more violent. It takes a touch of genius and a lot of courage to move in the opposite direction. And you may not know it, but you are that genius. You now muster the courage. If not you, then who. And if not now, then when. Each of you will return to positions of great responsibility in government, at headquarters, staffs, and even leading forces in combat. Knowing this, I am reminded of the great American revolutionary hero, John Paul Jones, who said, sign on young man and sail with me. The stature of our homeland is no more than the measure of ourselves. Our job is to keep her free. Our will is to keep the torch of freedom burning for all. To this solemn purpose, we call on the young, the brave, the strong, and the free. Heed my call. Come to the sea. Come sail with me. Today, you sail away to destinations far and near, distant corners of the globe, to strange and curious cultures, including a place called Pentagon, to further define the stature of your homeland, to keep her free, to even the last full measure of devotion if required, to keep that torch of freedom burning for now and forever more. And so today, we graduate 12 students from the Nimitz course, taught by the College of Naval Warfare and the Naval Command College, and 44 students from the Spruance course, taught by the College of Naval Command and Staff and the Naval Staff College. Congratulations to each of you. This past year of in-residence education is truly a gift from the nation to you. As you continue to grow in rank and responsibility, you'll find there is no more precious commodity than time, and you've just been given a gift of a year of study, reflection, and debate, a gift of time to grow intellectually and to prepare for the challenges that wait. Do not take this gift for granted. I ask each of you to be the best warfighter you can be, to be ready for the terror of war if it comes, to be ready emotionally, physically, and spiritually. Our world is more dangerous than ever before, and like Sparta, our warriors must be ever ready. I am fond of quoting Shakespeare's Henry V, mostly because it reminds me of the humanity, the simple elements that tie us one to another. But Henry V also found his world more dangerous than ever before. His conclusion was also the need for courage against daunting odds. Henry said, "'Tis true that we are in great danger. The greater, therefore, should our courage be." I ask you all then to have courage. Know your faith is not misplaced either in God or in a nation that for all its warts is unmatched in all the world. There is no nation like yours, no military as capable, no skilled thinkers as abundant and war tested as you. You are the asymmetric advantage that must hold tight to the strange sinews of liberty that echoes in your very soul. I ask each of you to also develop the constructs of peace, to rage against the dying of the light, to give our children one more month, one more day, one more minute, one more precious second of peace where we can. The UNESCO quotation on the wall of the DeWeldon corridor should speak to us all. Since wars begin in the minds of men, it is in the minds of men that defenses of peace must be constructed. You attended the world's best war college, but its greatness is not only a better understanding of war, but also an understanding of the enablers of peace in order to make conflict a last resort. As we stand here today, a mere century from a world war that was almost automated in its triggered nature, we must reflect on the horrible costs of our work. The best articulation I have seen remains our very own Professor Sally Payne in her book, The Wars for Asia, when she implores us to remember that wars produce sudden and irrevocable changes. Although they are fought for reasons, they can stampede passions and mass passions give no quarter to reason, let alone to any individuals barring the way. Millions of lives lost means millions of roads not taken, altering the roster of the born and the unborn and producing decisions informed by the road taken. The passions elicited by the killing, the dying and the witnessing put a period on the way the world was. The combustion of reason and passion leaves transformative and often unintended outcomes, which in the long term may prove more important than the war's original purpose. Given the cost, unpredictability and irretrievability, wars are important to understand. I ask you therefore to understand your art and the need for the constructs of war and peace. I hope this college has given you the skills. Really, I hope it has been a gift. Our art can never be an independent task divorced from policy of our nation. Our Professor Milan Vego tells us in a concept no doubt hammered home in your studies that to have any lasting value, tactical successes must be achieved as part of a larger and broader framework determined by strategy and policy. You now go forward to be the individuals who will determine that strategy and contribute to that policy. And your journey will take you into the halls of the most powerful decision-making forums in the world. I hope, may I know, our great college has prepared you for this journey. So I'll close now with the words of the great British philosopher, Christopher Robin, who said to his friend Poo Bear on a day much like today, if ever there is a tomorrow when we're not together, there is something you must always remember.  And so, braver, stronger and smarter, at the conclusion of this year of study, all of us wish you Godspeed. God bless us, everyone. Thank you for those remarks, Admiral Harley. For each graduating class, one student is selected for recognition as the President's Honor Graduate. Recipients of this award are chosen based on their outstanding achievement across a spectrum of disciplines, including academic performance, participation in Naval War College activities, participation in civic and community activities, and promotion of armed and government services in the public interest. For the College of Naval Warfare, the Honor Graduate of the November 2016 graduating class is Commander Jeffrey Palmer. Commander Palmer, would you please come to the stage? Commander Palmer served as a seminar academic rep, chair for NSA Academic Committee, member of Halsey Bravo Research Project, wrote an article that was published in the National Interest, served in a soup kitchen for the Evangelical Friend Church, participated in Newport Adult Soccer League, and probably his most demanding accomplishment of all was welcoming the Palmer quadruplets to the Palmer and the Navy War College family. Along with the certificate, he has received an engraved weems and plath compass from the Naval War College Foundation. For the College of Naval Command and Staff, the Honor Graduate for the November 2016 graduating class is Lieutenant Coleman Ward. Lieutenant Ward, would you please come to the stage to receive your award? Lieutenant Ward served as a seminar leader and academic officer, Halsey Alpha team leader, participated in Naval War College Hockey League and wrote an article on distributed lethality that was published by the Center for International and Maritime Security. Along with a certificate, he is receiving an engraved weems and plath compass from the Naval War College Foundation. We will now give our Honor graduates a few moments to address their fellow graduates and classmates. Thank you Admiral, this is a great honor. I think the biggest reason I'm up here though is as Captain Keyes referred to, I maxed out the degree of difficulty and somehow stuck the landing. But I've got some people to thank in that regard, but I'll get back to that in a minute. First off, I'd like to thank all my moderators for NSDM, Mary Rom, Jameson Hines, Nick Gavozdev, who really challenged me in terms of my thinking. Professor Gavozdev also additionally who gave me an opportunity to do some research for him over the summer and help smooth the way towards publishing, which is a real gratifying career milestone to make for me. Commander John Sheehan and Rick Moss went out of their way to work with me despite the split attention I had during strategy and policy. Jamie Gannon and Lieutenant Colonel Tony New did an excellent job of refereeing a vigorous JMO seminar. And Rick Moss again, and Hank Cameron and Bill Murray were great facilitators for the Halsey Bravo program. Very thankful to all the moderators. I've learned a lot from them. I had a lot of fun doing it and I learned I have a lot more to learn too. So that's my homework going forward. I also like to thank my classmates, particularly from the seminars, but also across the entire span of the College of Neville Warfare. They made this a real sharpening iron experience for me and I'll always be thankful for it. So getting back to that degree of difficulty thing. So yeah, we came here with two kids and we leave with six. Jill and I had quadruplets in February, right? At the beginning of the NSDM exercise, I really recommend that timeframe to do this kind of thing. In all seriousness though, across the staff, the faculty, seminar mates, Dean of Students Office, I'll call it Commander Bill Hendrickson in particular, but everyone across the span gave us the help, the space we needed to go see our kids in the NICU in Providence to take kids to doctor's appointments in Boston. Just very understanding across the board, people brought us meals, took time to hold a baby and we'll always be thankful for that. Finally, I'm sorry, I also should thank the Officers Club for understanding when we took over their elevator with all of our strollers. Great place for kids. And we talked about Evangelical Friends Church in Newport. There are a lot of war college students that are part of that church and that church was a real support to us during this time. So the college and the whole community should feel really good about all the support they gave as shipmates. So thank you. So having said all that, I feel a bit teased to have come here. It's not just because we couldn't go into all the restaurants in downtown Newport. It's about the college itself. There's so much goodness going on here across the departments. And I know I just got a small sample that I know my classmates got more of it to see. I wanted to call it specifically the Gene Anderson and Liz Cavallaro and the rest of the folks and Kozel who put on the personal development course during the summer and also run the electives program that was a real development moment for me. Real critical at this time of my career and I really appreciate the fact that we support that. And then I'll also say thank you to my first experience with the War College which was the strategic studies group. And though that group has sunset, I tried to bring some of that goodness and boldness that's part of that group into my seminar. So I hope I've been able to do that. I'll echo my NSDM seminar mate, Mike Ray, who said at the March graduation if you ever come up with a JPME phase three, give me a call because I'd like to come back. It was great. So again, just to sum up, I'm thankful for the opportunity. It was a great experience for us, for me. I know it was for the rest of my classmates too. I look forward to applying the lessons that I've learned here in the fleet and leading my sailors in the future because of course that's where the goodness comes in is taking everything we've got here, putting it into practice and giving it to other folks who don't get the opportunity to come here like we do. So in accordance with the motto, we're time to go take this knowledge of sea power and turn it into victory. Thank you. Well, good afternoon. Admiral, select members of the faculty, fellow graduates and family and friends. It's a real honor to be here speaking to you today. And what I'd like to do is just take a few minutes to discuss some of the takeaways that I have from my college experience and as well to give thanks for all the people who have made this very memorable as well as rewarding. So growing up, I was mostly interested in the sciences and solving math problems and not too keen on doing all the readings and writing papers and whatnot. And I think it was the certainty of knowing that there was always a correct answer when doing those math and science problems that kind of made that more appealing to me back then. And needless to say, I was quickly forced outside my comfort zone once I got here to the War College. But as this chapter in my career comes to a close, I can tell you that it's been the most enlightening educational experience that I've had. And I'd like to expand on that with just three very quick points, each of which characterized by a paradigm shift that I experienced along the way. The first shift was kind of that tactical to operational and strategic. Going through the curriculum, I've realized that the Department of Defense of Enterprise has won a complicated organism, but as well its mission is even more complex. Spending my short time in the Navy to date, dealing mostly at the tactical level, is extremely enlightening to explore the operational, strategic and political aspects of military operations. Just looking back at some of the experiences we've had from the guest speakers, we've had multiple geographic combatant commanders. We've had the SEC DEF, we've even had a Chief Justice come through here and just kind of understanding how the whole DOD Enterprise works together has been truly enlightening. And I've been thoroughly conditioned to recognize how the bigger picture influences military operations at the tactical level. Second, the paradigm shift that I had was kind of formulas to framework. So kind of going off this idea of those math and science equations, you could always get the right answer. But here at the War College, you're forced to first learn frameworks and then apply them to very complex problems. You know, it's not, there's not always a right answer. There's usually not a correct answer. And there may be no answer. But I've come to realize the value of diversity of opinions and perspectives that were brought to bear by not only my classmates in the Navy, but as well the sister services as well as our international students. The last paradigm shift, and I think the most important was that of making the shift from training at the tactical level to education here at the War College. It's all too easy these days to get distracted by technology where relative military strength is measured by how stealthy your fighters are, or how many nukes you can launch from a submarine, or how far your missiles can fly. All these things aside, the strongest military is the one that can outthink its enemy. So with those kind of lessons learned, I'd like to turn to giving thanks. First to the faculty, I wanna thank you for demanding us all to think critically, for forcing us to challenge assumptions, for stimulating meaningful debate and discussion. And I just have to say that I've enjoyed learning from you, from your experiences, as well as your leadership, so thank you. To my fellow graduates of the intermediate and senior class, I think I've had the opportunity to work with both of you, or some of you from each class. Your experiences from the other communities, not just the submarine community, within the Navy, as well as from sister services, and across the DoD Enterprise has broadened my horizons and kind of what I understand, not just the Navy, but the military and the DoD to be. I've enjoyed debating with you in class through our seminars. Some of them got kind of ugly pretty quick, but I think they were all very useful. And I wanna take this time to also recognize our international students. You know, they're not graduating with us today because they graduate in June, but I cannot stress enough how valuable it is to have those international students in the class with us. You know, I can think back to my early days at the Naval War College in strategy and war and having the Kuwaiti officer recounting the experiences that he had, not just with him, but with his mother and father, as the events were unfolding with the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait back in the early 90s. And you're just not gonna get that from reading old news clips and books. So that was extremely valuable and I'm very fortunate to have the experience to interact with our international students. As well, I also had the distinct privilege of participating in the Halsey Alpha Advanced Research Program. And I'd say I probably learned, or I'd say it's the most dense type of learning that I had here at the War College, working with guys like W and Ricky there in the audience. I was able to bring kind of my submarine experience to bear in conducting these war games, but I had no idea what happened with the air picture, with the Air Force guys and the Army guys and you guys really all brought that together and helped me understand what it means to fight jointly in a maritime campaign, so thank you. And finally to the families, even though no one deploys or sent to the front lines while we're here at the War College, we still fulfill the military obligation to serve. Through education today, we are better served to serve our country tomorrow. I'd like to give a special thanks to my mom and dad, Tracy and Doug, as well as my wife and son, Eileen and Riley in the back. I certainly would not be here today without your love and support. So I look forward to taking my new honed skills back to the fleet and I hope to see you all there. Thank you. A master of arts degree in national security and strategic studies or defense and strategic studies as appropriate will now be conferred to the graduates. Will the graduates please rise and remain in place? Reverend Harley, please approach the podium, sir. Admiral, I have the honor to present the November graduates of the Naval War College candidates for the Master of Arts in National Security and Strategic Studies and Defense and Strategic Studies. They have been thoroughly examined and approved by the faculty. By the power invested in me, by the almighty God, the secretary of the Navy, the accreditation of the New England Association of Schools and Colleges and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, I confer upon you all appropriate degrees and diplomas. Ladies and gentlemen, please join me in saluting through your applause the November 2016 graduates of the United States Naval War College. Thank you, Admiral. Graduates, please be seated. Beyond the requirements for graduation, certain individuals have distinguished themselves through academic excellence. For those in the top 5%, they are receiving a diploma with the highest distinction. Those in the next 15% will receive a diploma with distinctions. Graduates will now receive their diplomas. Graduates, please proceed to the stage as your name is read. Guests are welcome to come forward to take photographs. Please try to hold your applause until all names have been read. Admiral Harley, Dr. Hickey, and Dean Hahn, please rise. Presenting the graduating members of the College of Naval Warfare and their next duty assignment. Commander Andrew V. Byrne, United States Navy, Joint Planning Support Element, Norfolk, Virginia. Commander Marcus A. Devine, United States Navy with high distinction. Naval Consolidated Brig, Chesapeake, Virginia. Commander Mary Catherine Devine, United States Navy, USS Bainbridge, DDG 96, Norfolk, Virginia. Lieutenant Commander Kevin S. McNulty, Supply Corps, U.S. Navy with distinction. U.S. Special Operations Command, Tampa, Florida. Captain John P. Moon, Dental Corps, U.S. Navy, UMED, Washington, D.C. Lieutenant Colonel Anthony E. New, U.S. Army, U.S. Naval War College Joint Military Operations Department. Lieutenant Commander Matthew J. Niswand, U.S. Navy, Strike Fighter Squadron 106, Virginia Beach Floor, Virginia. Commander Jeffrey M. Palmer, U.S. Navy with distinction. Defense Intelligence Agency, Joint Base Anacostia Bowling, Washington, D.C. Lieutenant Commander Kevin L. Shackleford, U.S. Navy, Naval Air Warfare Center Training Systems Division, Orlando, Florida. Lieutenant Commander Joseph Spinks, U.S. Navy, U.S. Strategic Command, Omaha, Nebraska. Commander Samuel E. Young, U.S. Navy, Carrier Strike Group II, Norfolk, Virginia. Presenting the graduating members of the College of Naval Command and Staff in their next duty assignment. Major Anthony J. Allen, U.S. Army with distinction. 18th Field Artillery Brigade, Fort Bragg, North Carolina. Lieutenant Commander Lucas Rockford Argobright, U.S. Navy, U.S. Fleet Forces Command, Norfolk, Virginia. Lieutenant Commander Willard E. Ball, U.S. Navy, DNI Vupers Support, Millington, Tennessee. Lieutenant Commander Samuel Bettencourt, U.S. Navy, Supreme Allied Commander Europe, Castro, Belgium. Lieutenant Commander Timothy Birbach, U.S. Navy, VP-30, Jacksonville, Florida. Lieutenant Commander Larry Jeff Blankenship, U.S. Navy, U.S. Naval War College, Newport, Rhode Island. Lieutenant Commander Michael Patrick Betcher, Junior, U.S. Navy, with distinction. Naval Operations Support Center, Avoka, Pennsylvania. Lieutenant Commander Joseph E. Cantu, Jr., U.S. Navy, U.S. European Command, Stuttgart, Germany. Lieutenant Commander Lloyd L. Core, U.S. Navy, Center for Security Forces Learning Site, Gulfport, Mississippi. Lieutenant Commander David Joseph Dartes, U.S. Navy, VFA-25, LaMoure, California. Lieutenant Commander Patrick Calgiel-Drain, U.S. Navy, United States Military Training Mission, Jubel, Saudi Arabia. Lieutenant Commander W. Todd Emmons, U.S. Navy, HSM-48, NAS, Mayport, Florida. Lieutenant Commander Matthew L. Enos, U.S. Navy, with high distinction. Joint Staff Hampton Roads, J7, Norfolk, Virginia. Lieutenant Commander Christopher Douglas Glandon, U.S. Navy, with distinction. U.S. Strategic Command, Omaha, Nebraska. Lieutenant Commander Brendan T. Gray, U.S. Navy, with distinction. NATO Joint Electronic War Corps Staff, Royal Naval Air Station, Yoveltown, Somerset, United Kingdom. Lieutenant Commander Brian M. Haney, U.S. Navy, VAQ-129, NAS, Whidbey Island, Washington. Commander Robert Hanvey, U.S. Navy, Naval Reserve Forces Command, Norfolk, Virginia. Lieutenant Commander Chad H. Harvey, U.S. Navy, with high distinction. U.S. Strategic Command Joint Functional Component Command for Space, Vandenberg Air Force Base, California. Lieutenant Commander Brian Haas, U.S. Navy, with distinction. U.S. Northern Command, Colorado Springs, Colorado. Major Devin M. Henry, U.S. Army. Brigade Modernization Command, Fort Bliss, Texas. Lieutenant Commander Dirk Hendricks Herron, U.S. Navy, with distinction. VFA-101, Eglin Air Force Base, Florida. Lieutenant Commander Sean M. Jarvis, U.S. Navy, U.S. European Command Headquarters, Stuttgart, Germany. Lieutenant Jason David Junker, U.S. Navy, Explosive Ordnance Disposal Mobile Unit 8, Rotis, Spain. Lieutenant Commander Lucien D. Kins, U.S. Navy, Carrier Strike Group 8, Norfolk, Virginia. Lieutenant Commander Daniel Derek Cuitu, U.S. Navy, Joint Force Command North, Brunsum, Netherlands. Major Morgan H. Laird, U.S. Army, Pearlbrook Field, Eglin, Florida. Lieutenant Commander Carlo D. Leveron, U.S. Navy, HSM 35, San Diego, California. Lieutenant Commander James Matthew Malvesio, U.S. Navy, U.S. Special Operations Command, Tampa, Florida. Lieutenant Commander Hector Marin, U.S. Navy, USS Pasadena, SSN 752, Point Loma, San Diego, California. Lieutenant Commander Caleb C. Moore, U.S. Navy, Patrol Squadron 30, Jacksonville, Florida. Lieutenant Commander Larry J. Parker, U.S. Navy, U.S. European Command, Stuttgart, Germany. Major Samuel McGowan Price III, U.S. Army, Third Infantry Division, Fort Stewart, Georgia. Lieutenant Commander Steve Reese, U.S. Navy, U.S. Special Operations Command, Tampa, Florida. Lieutenant Commander Eric K. Rolfe, U.S. Navy, Surface Warfare Officer School, Newport, Rhode Island. Lieutenant Commander Craig Salveson, U.S. Navy, NATO School, Oberammergau, Germany. Lieutenant Commander Catherine Brady Sears, U.S. Navy, With Distinction, U.S. Special Operations Command, Tampa, Florida. Lieutenant Commander Jonathan Edward Satorius, U.S. Navy, Officer Training Command, Newport, Rhode Island. Lieutenant Benjamin D. Thornton, Supply Corps, U.S. Navy, Naval Leadership and Ethics Center, Newport, Rhode Island. Lieutenant Commander David A. Turpin, U.S. Navy, Halsey Alpha Fellow, U.S. Naval War College, Newport, Rhode Island. Lieutenant Coleman A. Ward, U.S. Navy, With High Distinction, Naval Submarine School, New London, Connecticut. Major Anthony Michael Wurtz, U.S. Army, Fourth Military Information Support Group at Fort Bragg, North Carolina. Lieutenant Commander Andrew R. Weezy, U.S. Navy, Joint Information Operations Warfare Center, McDill Air Force Base, Tampa, Florida. Major Anthony Williams, U.S. Army, Fifth Special Forces Group, Fort Campbell, Kentucky. Unfortunately, the following students could not attend today's ceremony. Commander Michael E. Kinney, U.S. Navy, Lieutenant Commander David J. Schlesinger, U.S. Navy. Ladies and gentlemen, please join us in a round of applause for our graduates, honorees and their families. At this time, Commander Todd will deliver the benediction. Ladies and gentlemen, please rise. Let us pray. Eternal God, as you have graced us with your presence, so send us out with your approbation and peace. As these leaders return to staff positions in the operational arena, grant them wisdom in applying the knowledge and skills they have mastered through the course of instruction. Give them the spirit of a scholar warrior, ever seeking a deeper understanding of the forces at play in the field of battle, a greater appreciation of the operational arena, and a more precise way forward in the hour of complexity and crisis. Enable them to maintain a steadfastness of purpose, fidelity to their nation, and self-sacrificial dedication to the high principles of honor, courage, and commitment in defense of justice, freedom, and liberty for all. Grant that we may all remain resolute and faithful in our particular places of responsibility, demonstrating by our every thought, word, and deed the honor, courage, and commitment to which we have been called. Amen. Please remain standing for the departure of the official party. This concludes our graduation ceremony. Thank you for joining us this afternoon.


So there was once a very fascinating theory that the word rocks itself was in fact an anagram, with each letter representing the name of a member of the crew, such as C for Charlotte Lin, K for Kaido, or even S for subscribe to the Grand Line Review for regular One Piece content uploaded straight until YouTube feed. Hello and welcome to the Grand Line Review, your source for everything One Piece and today we have a rather exciting topic as we will be endeavoring to examine everything we know about one of the most influential and insane pirate crews in the history of the world being the Rocks Pirates. And just in case you've missed it in the video title, there is a spoiler warning in place for this video because if you are an anime only watcher or just not up to act three of Wano and the Manga, you might just might want to think twice about watching this because there is some pretty groundbreaking stuff that we will be going into. So feel free to just casually hit that subscribe button and come back at a later date. But for everyone else, we have a fairly epic journey of insight to embark on. And of course, everything commences with our very first mention of the word rocks which occurred in chapter 907 as part of a banquet of revelations that was the Reverie Arc. Now a slight etymological note here, rocks was originally translated as rocks as in ROX by the official English translation as well as several scan groups. However, this was later amended when the rocks name was romanized in the Manga and its official spelling is now ROCKS. So I don't want to be seeing any of this ROX nonsense. But what even are rocks? Well, they came up in conversation as the Marines became aware that two of the four emperors being Big Mama Kaido signaled the potential of an alliance, a very worrying factor that prompted Rear Admiral Hina to ask, but GARP, speaking of Big Mama Kaido, isn't that the reason why you're considered a naval hero? At which point Monkey D. Garp interjects with, oh, you mean rocks. I figured you were too young to know about that Hina. Before Roger, it was their era, but that was over 40 years ago. And with this one line, the ROX pirates were born in our minds and pretty much changed everything we thought we knew about the one piece world. Well, maybe that's an exaggeration, but it did give us a pretty brilliant insight into a time before Roger, which is something that I never even knew I needed before it was presented to us. One piece is a primarily generational story after all, with the core focus on Roger's generation, Shanks's generation, and of course, Luffy's generation. So to hear of a time before Roger's cohort fully took over was pretty endlessly exciting and still very much is. However, the big implication here was that both Big Mama and Kaido were part of the same pirate crew, which seemed nigh on unimaginable by our modern views of them. But little did we know that was just a taste of the sheer insanity to come. And we wouldn't have to wait too long to discover more pivotal information on this crew, which would come in the form of chapter 957, when Fleet Admiral Sengoku expanded on their background with the following. The ROX pirates were a collection of individuals who came together on the pirate island of Fulaled years ago to make one big score. They were a fiery bunch, constantly killing one another within the group. He then went on to say that they were captained by a man named ROX Deez-Abek, adding yet another character to the roster of those wielding the mighty D. But not only that, for the first time, he also had a parallel drawn to another famed de-holder being Marshall D. Teach. Prior to this moment, he was very much the black sheep or awkward uncle of the D clan, as he was the antithesis of every other member that we'd met. But the existence of Zabek went on to show that Blackbeard is not as much of an aberration as we may think. And this parallel only becomes stronger because a nice fun fact that was dropped prior to introducing Zabek into the series was the name of Blackbeard's current flagship, the Saber of Zabek. Very, very strongly hinting that Blackbeard has the inherited will of Zabek in much the same way that Luffy does with Roger. Furthermore, Blackbeard's home base is currently full of lead island, which is where the ROX pirates were formed. And just as a side note, this island is called Hachinosu in Japanese. And it's one of those things that just doesn't quite translate nicely into English. I mean, Hachinosu directly translated means beehive, but it's a colloquial term to refer to riddling someone with bullets.  But with that side story over, to add to the idea of Zabek and Roger corresponding to Blackbeard and Luffy, Zabek was also labeled as Roger's first and perhaps greatest foe, which is a pretty big claim, considering the pirate king had the likes of Garp and Whitebeard to deal with during his time. So Zabek would appear to be something else entirely. And according to Singoku, Zabek's ambition was to become the king of the world, which is kind of like becoming the anti-pirate king.  So it seems only natural that figures such as Zabek and Roger would come to clash in that regard. Although with what we currently know, that would make Zabek's greatest enemy, the world government itself, as he and his crew would have acted sort of like a super evil revolutionary army. In fact, Singoku stated that the rocks pirates directed hostilities against the world government like some kind of terrorist organization.  And while it might seem like an absurd idea for one pirate crew to be capable of such thing, when we do expand on its members, all of a sudden it seems pretty exceptionally possible. So under the command of Zabek, as mentioned before, we had Big Mom and Kaido. Very notably though, this was a much younger Big Mom and Kaido. I mean, we don't know exactly when the crew was formed, but it was at least 38 years ago, which would have put Charlotte Linlin in her late twenties or very early thirties, which is known by fans as the, oh my God, Big Mom is hot time period. Meanwhile, Kaido's age is currently unknown, so it's very difficult to place him. However, believe it or not, he was an apprentice pirate on this crew, meaning that he was very much the lowest ranking member. And this might also indicate that he was quite, quite young at the time. He was also nowhere near as powerful as his modern day form, but still, any crew sporting even a baby Kaido is not to be taken lightly. That fact only becomes more apparent as we examine its other members, which also included one, Edward Newgate, aka Whitebeard, the individual who would go on to become known as the strongest man in the world. And he would have been in his early to mid thirties, back in the times when he was sporting his luscious blonde locks. But with this presence, the Rocks Pirates have turned from a serious threat into an insane global catastrophe because three members of this crew would go on to become emperors of the sea. And other big names also featured include very surprisingly, Golden Lion Shiki. Surprising because he is of course the main antagonist of one piece film, Stronghold, and to this day remains the only primary film villain ever inserted into the canon of the series, mostly thanks to chapter zero and a bit of a name drop here and there. However, it should always be noted that the events of Stronghold itself are still not canon. But that is another massive heavy hitter because Shiki was yet another rival of Roger who almost got the better of him on at least one occasion. But as his fate, things ultimately did not go Shiki's way. Another intriguing member is the rather blandly named Captain John, although I suppose he wasn't a captain at the time. Regardless, he was a moderately famous pirate, so much so that Buggy the Clown has been on the hunt for Captain John's treasure in the series, which he may very well have actually found thanks to Luffy giving him the armband map during the impaled down arc, which might also explain how Buggy funded his pirate dispatch squad. In any case, what's cooler is that we have actually seen Captain John in the series or at least what remains of Captain John, as Gekko Mori was able to acquire his corpse and turn him into a zombie. Although after Mori's defeat, he became a lifeless corpse once more. And at this stage, there were only two other confirmed members of the Rocks Pirates, one being the very vaguely named Silver Axe, as well as another known as Wang Zi, also known as Ochoku, the latter of which is based on a real life Chinese pirate from the 1500s. However, we currently have no other information on either of these figures. But with all of these heavy hitters and future captains, you might be asking yourselves, how did they all get along? And the answer is simply that they didn't, which is a big part of why the name Rocks isn't terribly well known in the current day. Sengoku posited the explanation that while they got along so terribly, that none of them actually wanted to tell the tale. And this went on to more or less be confirmed by Whitebeard himself in chapter 964, when Kozuki Oden requested to join his crew in a flashback and Whitebeard basically told Oden, you're not the type of person who serves someone else. I know what happens when you get people like that together in a group. I had plenty of bad experiences with my last crew. And in fact, I even brought up before that Sengoku claimed the Rocks pirates were consistently killing one another within the crew itself. So it seemed like a very survival of the fittest sort of scenario. Although it is a testament to their leader, Zabeck, that this crew was able to function in any way, shape or form. But another big reason why the Rocks pirates aren't much more well known is because oddly enough, the world government itself covered up much of their deeds. Now there could be any number of reasons for this, one of which is that they simply did not want to glorify piracy, which we have seen in the modern day happen with Luffy actually. However, there is another much more impactful reason for their coverup. And this has to do with the ultimate fall of the Rocks pirates, which occurred on a mysterious island known as God Valley. 38 years ago, God Valley marked the final stand of the Rocks pirates, who were wiped out in one fell swoop by Monkey D. Garp, which is the act that earned him the title, the hero of the Marines. Or at least that's how it was reported because in reality, Garp was unable to defeat this group on his own. And instead he formed a temporary alliance with Goldie Roger himself. And together, the two of them managed to defeat the Rocks pirates. And while we aren't exactly sure of what part they played in all of this, weirdly enough, both Roger and Garp fought in some way to defend the world nobles, which seems quite out of character for both of them. What with Roger being a pirate and directly opposed to their rule, and Garp just possessing a strong distaste for them. So much so that he has refused the rank of Admiral, so as to not be under their direct control. But the presence of the world nobles most certainly has something to do with why the world government has kept the Rocks pirates name so secretive. As well as God Valley itself, actually. In fact, in the modern day, you won't find many people who have heard this name because according to Sengoku, that's because you won't find any map featuring an island called God Valley. As a matter of fact, God Valley itself vanished without a trace. Of course, implying that the world government had something to do with this erasure, whether that be via a bus to call, or through hiding knowledge of it from the world. Kind of like Laugh Tale, really. One of the many, many mysteries we still have yet to solve in this series. In any case, following this, the Rocks pirates disbanded. Although what became of Zabeck himself is currently unknown. However, he is said to have died, allegedly. Whether this was in battle or not, once again, we don't know. And as for everyone else, well, we're well and truly aware of the impact that they would go on to have in this world. Meaning that most of what we know about the modern piracy system did spawn directly from this singular crew, which is pretty wild to think about. And at this stage, I should also say that there are several other characters who are speculated to have been members of the Rocks Pirates. One of which would be Miss Buckin, the mother of Edward Weevil, and self-proclaimed former lover of Whitebeard. Buckin was said by Marco to have sailed on the same ship as Whitebeard close to 40 years ago, which would all but confirm that she was a member of the Rocks Pirates, although it still has yet to be explicitly stated. And in a similar vein, you could potentially maybe assume that Streisand was a member of the Rocks Pirates since he teamed up with Big Mom when she was five years old. Although there's nothing to say that Big Mom didn't temporarily leave their growing empire to go and do her own thing. Meanwhile, it's also very possible that Shaki was a member of the Rocks Pirates, but this is much more speculation-based than even Buckin and Streisand. Essentially, Shaki has stated that she was a pirate once chased by Garp and that she gave up piracy 40 years ago, which is that magic Rocks time period number. However, it needs to be noted that Shaki said this pre-time skip, meaning that she retired from piracy 42 years ago now, a much more awkward number because that leaves a four-year gap between Shaki leaving piracy and the disbandment of the Rocks. So it doesn't line up particularly nicely, and I guess it is still technically possible that she was a member, but Shaki could have just as easily been a prominent pirate elsewhere, somewhere not Rocks-related. But even without Shaki, the Rocks Pirates are undoubtedly the most stacked powerhouse crew we have ever heard of in this series and probably will ever hear of. Featuring an all-star lineup of truly terrifying figures whose influence still and always has been paramount in the story of One Piece. In fact, at the time of this recording, we have our hands full on one dealing with two of their former members, one of which being the apprentice Kaido, and we still have so much left to learn about this group, making me infinitely hyped for a hopeful eventual Rocks flashback. But for now, I'm afraid that's everything we know about the Rocks Pirates. But what do you guys think? Please do leave your thoughts in the comments below or even join my Discord server. And if you'd like to see more videos like this, then please do go and check out some of my other content or even subscribe to the channel for more glorious One Piece business uploaded straight into your YouTube feed. But for now, this has been the Grand Line Review and I'll see you next time.


There's a reason why Xtrades is currently the fastest growing application on the market for sharing financial ideas. With over $2.5 million paid in the last two years to contributors, users are flocking to see what trades the top traders on the leaderboard are sharing in real time. If you're looking to grow your reputation as a trader on the internet, or discuss your trading ideas with other reputable investors, click the link below and get connected with the trading mentor today, completely free of charge. Alright, what's up everybody? This is Alex from Xtrades back to you with another weekly trade ideas list. I hope everybody had a wonderful trading week last week. Got some good trades in at a good week, maybe you're enjoying your holiday. This week we do have a short week coming up, so it could be relatively quiet in the markets. Since we have Thanksgiving on Thursday, some people even start their holidays a little bit early. They'll take the whole week off. If you didn't last week, we had some amazing setups. Every single one paid. We're looking at a majority cause on everything. I think the one thing that didn't have as good a fall through as everything else was UNG, just due to warmer weather and a couple storage readings that came in a little bit bearish for natural gas. But overall, I went ahead and added more on UNG for a longer term swing. But the first day on Monday, huge day for natural gas, 7%. All the other setups as well had huge upside. It was just overall a really good week for the trade ideas list, for day trading, for everything. CPI came in pretty soft. Market fund that very bullish yields came down aggressively, bonds ripped, everything. Even the dollar came down aggressively, so it was a very good week for the stock market last week. This week for economic data, you could see it's actually kind of relatively quiet for Tuesday. We do have existing home sales and also the Fed minutes from the last FOMC meeting. So I'd say the minutes are probably going to be the most important of the week, just in case that anybody missed anything from the FOMC press conference, they're going to want to see if they missed anything written in black and white from the minutes. So this will drop on the Fed website at 2pm and it can cost some volatility. Could be a nothing bigger, but who knows, it just depends. And then Wednesday, just the usual initial jobless claims, durable goods orders. And then most importantly, consumer sentiment at 10. This is probably going to move the market the most. Durable goods orders is always a hit or miss as well as the initial jobless claims always just depends on how extreme the readings are. Then of course, Thursday, November 23rd, markets are closed. And then Friday, this could be actually a pretty big one. We have the S&P Flash US Services PMI and also S&P Flash US Manufacturing PMI. So definitely want to pay attention to this on Friday. This would probably be one of the most important data sets of the week. Otherwise, I'd say consumer sentiment, the minutes and existing home sales, pay attention to those plus the PMIs. So that's for the economic calendar, relatively quiet, nothing too major, but definitely a couple that could move us. And for seasonality, this week, we're going to have something different. I found this on the Almanac Traders Twitter. And I buy a copy of his Almanac every single year. I love his stuff. This is a seasonality chart for November. Recent 21 years worth of data from 2002 up into 2022. And you can see it, we kind of hit that midpoint of the month when we were looking at the previous seasonality chart. Once we get to that midpoint, we kind of stall out. As you can see here, every single index kind of slows down a little bit. And then you get that dip towards somewhat at the end of the month. And then towards the actual end of the month is when you start seeing that rip up. So on Friday, we just had the most recent monthly options expiration on 11.17. You can see I'm highlighting, which brings us into 11.20 here coming up. So we're at this exact spot right here. It looks like after the 20th is kind of when we started seeing things curl up a bit. With the exception to maybe the pre-election years, you can see these dotted lines. These are pre-election years for seasonality. They kind of have a different outcome compared to just the regular seasonality where it starts going up after the 20th. It kind of does stall out a little bit on pre-election years. So that's something to consider. But either way, it looks like on the 24th, everything, despite pre-election years, despite just regular seasonality, everything kind of starts curling up up into the end of the month for November. So definitely want to be careful shorting this market, especially with seasonality. You got a low VIX, all types of other stuff. Just be careful. It looks like the spy, which we will go over later. We're kind of at a stall out point at a big resistance, stuck within a range as well. At least three or four days worth of chop after the CPI. We kind of just stalled out. So got to be careful with that. But seasonality kind of a little bit promising here for the wrap up at the end of the month. So we'll see how that goes. But just consider that coming into the 20th year. So we're in this exact spot right here and on to the setups here. For our first one, we're going over Exxon. This is energy. This is going to move with CVX and overall the energy sectors. You could track XLE as well. For Exxon here, you can see it's actually poking out of the downtrend line. You got to test one, test two, test three. Looks like a test for rejection as well. Finally poked out just a little bit and not trying to get over 105, which is also a previous support right here. It's got a base where it bounced right there, base where it bounced right there. So as long as you're staying over that 104 80s to 105, good chance that you can start to curl up here.  It's going to be a 109 19 probably rounded up to 110 flat. And that's probably the max upside I'd be looking for personally. We got to see a get over that first focus for this week for Exxon. Looking at calls, unless of course it starts going back within the downtrend line where it could invalidate that thesis. As long as it's staying outside of this, there's a good chance it could pop back up. And we saw that with WFC two weeks ago, where the week after we were looking at it, it actually didn't have its breakout until the week after we were paying attention to it. So it just ripped last week. So it just took a couple of weeks. And you know, these kind of breakouts can take a little bit. So don't be discouraged if it doesn't just rip up instantly when it breaks out. Maybe by time on your contracts, give us some time to work around.  But if it starts falling back within the downtrend, that's kind of your signal to maybe look elsewhere. So that's for Exxon looking at calls. Make sure it stays over 104 83 and the downtrend line. Make sure it stays broken out and it could head up to 109 19. All right. Next, we're going into AB and B. So we actually had this in our focus a couple of weeks ago as well. Is in the same list as WFC. So made its way back to the list here. But actually this time, I finally started getting over the 122 80, which in our previous video from two weeks ago, we're looking for a move over 122 80, or at least looking that as a level that it could get bullish over. And you can see on Tuesday here after CPI, really big day, plus 6.3 percent. And then had another rip up here, almost up to 132 resistance that we were looking for a couple of weeks ago. So this is the 132 we're looking for overall. Got really close from a couple of weeks ago. So really nice run up. But what I like here is that I pull back and now we have a bunch of moving average confluence. You can see we got the red and green dots here, which is the 200 EMA. And then also this one right here is the 50 EMA. So they're both confluent with each other, literally at the same exact spot. And you got your nine and twenty ones down here. So this is your nine and twenty ones, two hundred and fifty. And it's back testing right here. So it's trying to hold as a higher low, which could end up having a base. And you can see it head back up to 132 78. If it holds this higher low and moving average as a base, it holds both of them and maybe even holds the nine and twenty one. If you back test that, you can still see that move up to 132 78. Technically, it's in an uptrend now, finally getting over those moving averages after at least a couple of weeks of training under now back over those plus the 200 EMA plus the 50 back testing those really nice higher low. Maybe it could rip off here, head up to 132 78. As long as it's staying over 122 80, which is this structure right here. I feel pretty bullish about AB and B. You got multiple tests, previous support, this area right here. You got a big resistance here, slight resistance here. Nice breakout point right there. So that's why 122 80 is so important. Want to see a staying over that as well as staying over the moving averages like I just showed you. So you got your 250. Make sure staying up that and you can see 132 78. So AB and B looking at calls, let the moving averages guide you. Use 122 80 is kind of your must hold point. It starts going back under 122 80 and kind of toss the idea out the window, which a lot of our ideas have been hidden lately, a lot more been winning than losing. So I'm just waiting for a week where it's not going to work as well for the bulls. Obviously, it's going to come eventually. It can't always just have a good week or have good callouts or ideas. Eventually, the market's going to invalidate one of your thesis. This has got to be careful with that. But AB and B stay confident over 122 80. Make sure it holds the moving averages. You can see that move up to 132 78. All right. And last but not least for individual tickers looking at Baba here. Just had earnings a couple of days ago. Gapped down almost 10 percent. This one's going to be simple. You need to see it back over 77 77. That's literally the low. So seven seven seven seven quadruple sevens. Maybe that's a lucky level. Usually it's triple sevens that are lucky, but maybe this quadruple sevens could also be lucky. So this is a major low from May 23, 2023. And needs to reclaim back over that. If I start reclaiming back over that, I feel like it's going to work its way back up to the gap. Obviously with Baba, lots of overnight moves. There's going to be lots of gap ups and gap downs just due to time differences in China and Baba does trade on the Hong Kong exchange. So need to see it back over this low here that seven seven or quadruple seven. And once it starts reclaiming and closing back over that with a one day bar, I feel good about it heading back up to the gap. Maybe get filled back up to the upside as well as this is like almost like a 2014 valuation. I'm pretty sure this is like the same level they IPO that except they're bringing in way more revenue than they were back when they IPOed in 2014 or whatever it was. And there's a lot of people paying attention to that valuation in comparison on Twitter, especially lots of big names who post financial news kind of paying attention to that valuation from 2014 to now comparing their revenues. This is almost a discount. So that's one way to look at it. Obviously, you could buy time, be safe because there's kind of some free space down here right if it doesn't get back over that that quadruple seven level here. You got another base right here. I guess you could watch. So maybe it could support there at seventy four sixty eight comes from right here. And then it's pretty much just all like free space down to this low. Probably just sixty flat or something like that. So it really needs to get back over that low. We should originate some right here. They can get back over that. They could fill that gap back up. Probably a little downtrend line here as well. You could pay attention to it's kind of old. All right, I get already broke out, already had a nice kind of little short term breakout and now it's back within. I guess you could maybe watch that, but I personally would just pay attention to the quadruple seven level, which is as low. They could start closing back over, probably start seeing it make its way and try to fill this gap back up. So by time on contracts, maybe be patient with it. If you want to wait for it to get back in the gap, you can keep it that simple. Wait for it to start entering and closing inside the gap. It's going to be at eighty seventy seven. You can even make a line, hit alert and we'll name a gap. Simple as that. I want to just wait for that if you want to do that. But I really like it. It starts reclaiming back over that quadruple seven level. I like it for some upside. So it's for Baba looking at calls, be patient and remember trades in different time zones. So you're going to have a lot of gap ups and downs, a little bit riskier. All right, and on to the indexes last week for spy. We were focused on this downtrend line. I mentioned I needed to get over this downtrend line. I needed to break out of that pretty much to get up to four forty three. And I actually gapped right over that. So it didn't even give you really a chance to answer on the breakout or anything like that, because we had CP on Tuesday and it was a soft print. Mark, I liked it. I mentioned if you got over this supply right here that your free space is up to the next supply, which is, you know, four forty nine. So we did get that. So it got back over and got a couple of nice points up into supply. And that's where we stalled out last week. And now we do have this new gap open, which I really don't like. Lots of times gaps will try to fill at least 80 percent of them, I would say feel and a lot of the trading community and overall Wall Street kind of agrees on that number. It's kind of just a talked about number. About 80 percent of gaps do get filled, whether up or down. So I need to be careful with that, as well as we're stalling out at four fifty one eight here, which is the top of supply. It really needs to get over that four fifty one. If it gets over four fifty one eight and starts closing over that. That's your free space up to four fifty three sixty seven, which is this peak right here. So that's all trading is just trying to find those free spaces. Last week, your free space was, you know, over this supply that we focused on. So if I got over that supply, your free space is up to four forty nine. And now that we cleared those, we're at the next supply. I need to get over this point to get to this point. That's your free space. And then there's even a gap above that four fifty three sixty seven. So if it can get over that, this gap could feel. And honestly, I could see it stalling out about there. I really couldn't see it higher than, you know, it's was that July August highs. That's where it kind of gets a little bit risky at four sixty or right around that area. So it really needs to get over that. Otherwise, if it starts closing under this and it keeps stalling out of this, it could try to head back down a little bit. Although I don't feel that great about it falling just due to VIX is super low. It's closing, you know, near loads, almost at a triple bottom support. And when the VIX gets this low, it's really hard to short. So unless you buy time, be patient. You have the market time to fart around in a low volatility environment. You know, you're going to be punching yourself in the head pretty much trying to short this market. It's very risky. But this 451, I mean, this 45108, it does have potential. Like I said, it's a big supply zone all the way from September as well. It's a pretty nice peak. I mean, this area is, I mean, you could argue it's kind of getting to that overvalued territory on the short term as well as overbought as well. So like I said, it needs to get over that 45108, which is a clear peak. It just keeps staying under it and it's failing to break out of this. It could have just a little bit lower. And then obviously, I really wouldn't feel good about going short in this market until it starts entering inside the gap. It'd be a lot easier to trade puts once it's inside the gap because it'd probably accelerate faster. Sellers kind of come in and buyers panic when it starts entering the gap because there's no liquidity here. So it's fast trading in these gaps. So that's for spy. 45108 is your focus. You need to break over to that. Your next level is 45367 plus the gap, which is unfilled. This is an unfilled gap. And as well, like I said, if it keeps stalling out here, you're not getting any signal of a breakout that could be a sign of short term resistance, and it probably will try to come back down to the gap support about 446 at least. You could even mark the gap, the start of it. If you want to watch that as a support or a max low, I guess, if it stalls out here, 440609 is that gap support or the opening low from Tuesday, which is a CPI report. So that's your levels of focus, 440609. If it, excuse me, downside, which I don't feel that great about. And then 45108 needs a break over that to get over to 45367 plus the gap. All right. And for QQQ, similar story, except QQQ was already broken out. Right. We closed this big daily bar on Friday, opened up Monday with this inside bar. And as well, I was focused on this 38083. We were just too close to resistance for me to want to go long, which in hindsight, I mean, I missed out on a nice rally on Tuesday on the QQQ, but I had other stuff that I was trading anyways that I had to pretty good on. So I didn't need to buy the QQQ near 380 resistance, you know, to get paid and found other stuff this week. We did go ahead and clear that 383 and then above 383 takes you into 38488 plus the 38798. Those are your two above resistances. If it broke over 380 and it wasn't able to do that. And now we're just at a major stallout point, obviously needs to get over 388 to kind of get up to those major highs and start breaking out and maybe get back to the all time high level. She's just insane to be saying out loud, but that is the level. Needs to get over 388 as well as this. This is just a big resistance, guys. I mean, I wouldn't want to buy calls here. Not until at least it breaks over, makes a base. Once you start seeing a solid base, get made on 388, then you can kind of buy the dips at the higher lows and stuff like that. If it seems like it's holding over that, but you don't want to just buy straight into resistance, maybe with Nvidia earnings coming up, you know, they could just blast the market higher for all we know. But still, just risky, not my idea. I wouldn't have bought a 380. I wouldn't have bought a 384.88 and I wouldn't have bought a 387 either. These resistance points just, I don't know, I didn't like it. Just too risky. The risk for rug pulling is just way higher. I like to add at the moving averages, add on red days, anything with a discount really that is cheaper and it lowers your drawdown risk. If you buy on the dips rather than buying these breakouts and getting caught in the accumulation phase and stuff like that. So that's pretty much it for QQQ. I mean, it's still bullish, but we are at a stallout point. So it needs to get over 388. If 388 stalls out, it's the same thing. It would need to get under 384.88. So I need to get under this peak to see you downside and start entering the gap. And then it also need to get under 383 as well. So it's just the same levels of focus. Pretty much if it rejects 388, it takes you down to 384.88, 388. If 384.88 fails, it takes you down to 383. Simple as that. And it's just these three peaks right here. You got peak one, peak two, peak three. And that's pretty much your levels of focus. And then it'll need to break over 388 for upside. So no setup that I like on it really. Unfortunately, I like the individual tickers a little bit better. There's a lot better things to be looking at than the indexes, especially with volatility contracting. They're fine a day trade, but in terms of daily levels and swings, I just don't like shorts here and I don't like longs here as well for swing trades. So that's for QQQ. Just be cautious. 388 break needed for both as well as a 388 rejection or a 384.88 flush for the bears to start entering that gap. And on to the VIX. Really, it didn't have that much of a change from last week. So Friday we closed relatively low at, what was that close, 14.18. And then this Friday we closed at 13.81. So it didn't close too much lower than where it did last Friday. But the thing is, is it closed under that 20.21 low at 14.10, which is what we've been looking for. Because it's been stalling out at this 14.10. It did it on Thursday, closed back over it. And now we finally got that close under the 14.10, which is a good sign. This is a pretty bullish signal, at least to head down to 12.73. And if the VIX is going to go down this low, that could be a good setup for the spy, because obviously the VIX and the S&P or the spy are connected. They basically inverse each other. This is your reading for volatility at least 30 days out. I believe it takes SPX options and you get volatility readings for either 27 to 34 days or something like that. I just say it's about 30 days. So it's about 30 days of volatility that you're measuring on the VIX.  It's pretty much a straight shot down to the 12.73, which is pretty bullish for spy. And like I said, spy will need to get over that 451 area. So if it does get over that 451 area, I'd feel good about that move up to 453, which is, I mean, it's only like $2.50, but with volatility is this low, that'll be a pretty nice move if you trade the spy. And that's really it for the VIX guys. I mean, it's the same thing. Last week we were looking for either this close under the 14.10s or we're looking for a close back over the 15.50s for a real volatility signal. And once we start closing back over 15.50s, that takes you up to 17, 18.80, et cetera. And we did get the 14.10 close. So relatively bullish, I think for the indexes, the volatility closed under that major 2021 low. And now it can maybe head back down to the 12.73, which is this triple bottom support. So that's all I really got this week. Seems like a pretty clear shot down. Obviously, if it starts getting back over the 14.10 and closing back over the 14.60 mark, which 14.60 comes from this peak over here, that'd also be a signal that volatility could be coming back up. But my major point that I'm looking for, like I said, I'm not going to be that bearish until we start getting over the 15.53. And we've covered this in basically every recent video. Anything you see with a circle or an arrow is a major volatility point, some type of extreme reading, right? You got a major low, major rejection, major rejection, major low, major bounce, any volatility extreme. I have marked with a circle and an arrow and all three of these, these lows right here, these are major volatility extremes. And they've held in a very resilient manner. So that's why I can't see below the 12.73, but I can't see down to the 12.73 for right now. Since we did get that close under the 14.10, that's pretty good signal. Obviously, I mean, it could bounce. It's not just going to always just go straight to your level. I mean, it could stop early. It could stop at the 13.50s for all you know, but that's all you want to pay attention to the close. So as long as it's staying under the 14.10s and it's not closing back over that, you can feel good about it. Move back down to 12.73, which is bullish for the market. Simple as that. And then don't get too bearish until we start getting back over the 14.60 and 15.50s mark. And that's your volatility signals, guys. I hope you guys enjoyed this video. Make sure you like, comment, and subscribe to our Xtreys YouTube channel. I love you guys. I'm going to go ahead and get this chopped up, edited and sent out and I'm out.