Hi everybody, Joe from jaspyscasebreaks.com coming at you with a two box break of 2018-2019 Upredeck the Cup Hockey. Some pretty sweet stuff here. So we've got four boxes, so Nick popped open the case yesterday, so he made those squiggle marks right there, so here's what I'm going to do. First off, I'm going to thank all the people who joined the break. Appreciate it. Thanks for spending a bit of your Thursday with us. Thank you. And now we're going to select a die, select this one, and we'll go 1-2-3 for the left side and 4-5-6 for the right side. Good luck boxes. And it's six. 1-2-3-4-5-6. We're going to be doing this side right here, and this side we'll say for break 24, which is on the site right now, jaspyscasebreaks.com, and only seven teams left. So we can definitely run these back tonight. I'll leave them right there on the old comfy sofa there. All right. Good luck, everybody.  We've got a Thomas Shabbat Cabot, 13 out of 249, Chabol, and that'll be for the Flyers, for the Ottawa Senators. I just saw the orange. The colors actually kind of faded right here. Let's say it's supposed to be a red. That goes to Ottawa that'll be for Steve Birch. Joe Jobeck saying it's Shabbat, Shabbat? I am a Shabbat, beep boop bop beep, welcome humans. I am hockey player Shabbat, beep boop bop, I am Shabbat. I play hockey, beep boop bop. There's Daniel Brickley. That's an easy one. Three-color patch, 249, clearly hockey, not my strong suit. This goes to Nick Stanley and the Kings. We've got a nice patch right here, Thomas Hurdle, or Tomas Hurdle, six out of 50. Maybe part of the shark fin down there or one of the fins. That goes to Silvio and the San Jose Sharks. There's his autograph right there too. It's limited logos. That's a pretty sweet one. We've got Drake Batherson, 23 out of 99, Ottawa Senators. It's another Ottawa Senator for Steve Birch. We've got the Cup Sixes, wow, five out of six and they're all Chicago Blackhawks. That's, let's see if I can get all these names. There's Jonathan Taves, Brandon Sud. This is a difficult one down here. Duncan, Kyeath, Patrick Cain, Alex Debrinkat, and Corey Crawford. That one trips me up. Duncan. All right, that goes to the Chicago Blackhawks, Bob with that one, five out of six. That's pretty nice. Game used? Yeah, all game used hockey materials it says right there. It's pretty sweet. No randomizer right here. And we've got the plate and it's a King, it's Daniel Brickley again, one of one. That goes to Nick Stanley, all aboard the Big Head Express, woo-hoo. But wait, there's more. We've got another box, ladies and gentlemen, thinking to Fort Knox. All right, Brad Marchand to 249, Boston Bruins, William L. We've got Robert Thomas to 249. It's a nice patch in there for the Blues, St. Louis, Jeremy Lagman with St. Louis. Another nice patch. That's Jonathan Marshall Salt, 27 out of 50. Isn't that an old World War II era tank or plane? Anyway, this goes to Vegas. This will be for Silvio. A few more to go, we've got, ooh, color-coded, that looks nice. Dale Hauerchuck, seven out of 33 for the Buffalo Sabres, Buffalo! That goes to Mike Sommich with the Sabres. It's pretty sweet. The blue ink on there too, it's kind of hard to catch in this light, but that looks pretty sharp. There you go, nice. Next up is Victor Edgesell, 125 out of 249. Chicago Blackhawks, I think that's Bob, right? Yep, Bob with that one. Nice patch, nice auto, and the last one is another plate and an autograph. Ooh, for the Caps, that's Jonas Singenhalter, and that's for Bob Parton as well. It's a strong finish to the break for you. Extra watch, autograph, one of one, all aboard the Big Head Express, whoo-whoo! And there you have it, ladies and gentlemen, Cup Hockey in the books. Let's also give away a box, how about that? All sorts of things happening here. All right, so let's get everybody's names here. Let's alphabetize everybody's names first off. So if you bought at least, as the rules say, if you bought at least two teams, you'll get one entry in the chance for the OPG Platinum box, two gets you one, four gets you two, six gets you three, so on, and so on, and usually people don't buy more than six, though. All right, so Jack, you bought two, you're in. Joe, you bought two, you're in. Joe Drobak bought two, you're in. Mike Sommich bought two, you're in. Nick Stanley bought two, you're in. Bob bought four, two entries for him. Scott also got four, Scott gets two entries, and will be shipping this box sealed. Silvio, two, one entry, Moody, two, one entry, Mr. Birch, two, one entry, Tony, you bought three, but only those two teams count, but you still get an entry, although your third spot did block someone else from getting an extra entry. It works that way too, ladies and gentlemen. All right, now let's just double check that I got all the names. It's always good to double check, otherwise it's had times for me. Jack, Joe, Joe, Mike Langdon had one, Robert, Scott, Silvio, Moody, Birch, Tony, and William only got one team, and Derek Hamilton only got one team. All right, got it. So one spot in 13, one spot in 13 is going to get a sealed box of OPG Platinum. Now this is 18-19, upper deck cup hockey. The OPG Platinum is the current year, 1920. Let's roll it, let's randomize it, seven times, six and a one. Name on top, gets it after seven, two, three, four, five, six, and good luck everybody. Seventh and final time, Scott Corwin. There you go, Scott. I don't think I called your name at all during the break, until now. So an OPG Platinum box going your way. I'm Joe. Thanks for watching. More hockey in the store. We'll see you next time for the next one. Bye-bye.


love the way you set up your planner. It is my first time using one and it's possible would you go over your last year's planners and I love your idea. Hey guys my name is Brittany and welcome back to my YouTube channel.  I am going to be answering all of my unanswered comments that I have here on my YouTube channel. You guys I am so happy for all of you new subscribers that have subscribed to my channel. I really feel grateful for um I guess my little platform here on YouTube growing and I'm so happy for all of my new subscribers and my new viewers. I really appreciate all of you guys and in attempts to remedy me not answering all of my YouTube comments I gather all of my most commonly asked questions and I put it together and I'm going to answer all of those questions today for you guys. I am going to try my best to be better at answering all of my comments on my YouTube channel. It's really hard you guys just because um when I get a more deeper question or a more elaborate question it really takes time for me to like really think and make sure I you know answer the question thoroughly and a lot of times I always say oh I'm going to come back and answer that question later and I never come back to it. So I'm going to do my best in attempt to answer all of my unanswered YouTube comments and if you guys like this type of video I definitely will make more for you guys and I'm going to do a lot better at answering all of you guys's questions or at least as many as I can. So you guys the first most common question I always receive on my YouTube channel is um this one right here which is do you have any videos or guidance on how to create a schedule for your preschooler? How does a typical day go for you with your youngest? And I definitely will say I do not have any videos on my channel as far as scheduling tips for preschoolers um but I will direct you to my friend Rachel from Seven and All. She has two young boys that she is homeschooling now. I believe they are three and five. They are um similar ages as my younger ones here and I got a lot of tips and guidance in helping me create schedules and routines from her video. Another one you guys who is a big YouTuber here on this platform is JDA and she really specializes in that like preschool, kindergarten, uh routines and things like that and I definitely love watching her video for tips in like creating my schedule and routine with my younger two.   This is a time we eat breakfast and do bible. This is the time we're reading. This is school time. This is outside time. So I really had to be consistent in our rhythms in our home uh and it really made I guess squeezing in that educational time with them a lot easier. So um I definitely will um link some of my favorite videos from Rachel from Seven Awe and from JDA that I loved um that helped me incorporate some type of schedule and routine for my younger ones. My next question that I have is from Jennifer Wilson 9195 and she asked me um how do you like math with confidence? I'm considering it for my youngest when she's old enough for kindergarten work and I have been receiving so many questions you guys about math with confidence or in particular kindergarten math with confidence and you know how I am enjoying this uh program right here with Leia. So um we started kindergarten math with confidence in January. I wasn't consistent with this program so in the summer I come I completely started it over from the beginning and right now we are on week nine. I definitely will say I absolutely I you know I love this program and I really don't want to speak too soon especially since I'm still kind of like in the beginning part of it but I really have been enjoying it. I've been enjoying the games the hands-on activities. I will say some of the warm-up exercises that they have in the beginning the ones that take a little bit longer like uh we have been playing goldfish and things like that sometimes I separate the lesson where we will play like goldfish uh during like our um afternoon time whenever we have downtime and then I focus on the meat of the lesson. So sometimes I break up the warm-up section from the actual lesson that's a way like I try to keep my daughter's attention focused because sometimes I feel like the warm-ups and the lesson practice may feel a little bit scattered um so that's something that I have been doing and really shaking it up and it's really been fun uh something else I definitely will say about kindergarten math with confidence if you are going into this program just know it does take some prep work uh what I do at the beginning of the week is I make sure I have all the supplies and materials that I need for the whole week and I put it in like my little cubby um so I can ensure when I am sitting down doing lessons with Leia I have everything I need whether it requires like straws or I need a construction paper whatever I need it's typically something I do have in the home but I do make sure I uh look ahead and I plan I love that this is scripted and you know it's really been so much fun um as far as this with um what is it kindergarten not kindergarten but as far as this program with math you see primer because we are doing both math programs if anyone was to ask me which one do I love better there are both two completely separate programs and I love them both and I really can't say one is better than the other but I really have been enjoying both of our math curriculums this home school year so far I really been enjoying also to the picture book so last week our picture book was this one right here which is cn symmetry now uh this was a replacement book because I think the book that they recommended it wasn't in stock in my library so I went ahead and I grabbed this book because it was really similar and I really loved how since we were talking about symmetry my daughter had an opportunity to read like a picture book that really went in depth and explain and what symmetry is and um I love the incorporation of the math books and even though this um is like an enrichment exercise that you can do on Fridays with kindergarten math with confidence I read the picture book all week long and I really really love that so our next couple of picture books we're going to be using for the next couple of weeks is going to be left right Emma which we're of course going over left and right and these books are so stinking cute and then after that we're going to be using this book right here which is called pattern fish and um I love like all of the illustrations all of the books have been really really hits in my home school so far so I just make sure I at least have like three weeks worth of books on hand um for the kindergarten math with confidence because I didn't want to purchase all the books but um they definitely add like a little umph into the program so I really really have been enjoying it so you guys the next question that um I received is um I love the way you set up your planner um is it is my first time using one and it's possible would you go over your last year's planners and I love your idea so you guys um over the past couple of years I have been using schoolness's homeschool planners and this right here is my big uh schoolness homeschool planner that I used last year and then I have my new one that I'm using this year which is my homeschool minimalist planner from schoolness so you guys I am going to flip you around and I'm going to show you guys the inside of both of the planners and how this one looks and compared to this one right here I am going to kind of give you guys some glimpses of what we've been up to in our homeschool don't worry I will give you guys our um August homeschooling update next week and you'll kind of know like all the nitty-gritty things that we have done but you will see some sneak peeks when I show you guys inside of both of these planners and the layouts and the differences really really quick so um I absolutely love schoolness planners um I'm not going to lie I do miss my bigger one because I miss all of the pages that I have but this one is working out just fine but I think next year I may go for the bigger uh the bigger one again so these are my schoolness planners and I'm going to flip you guys around and show you the inside of them okay you guys these are actually my two planners this is my planner from last year my new one from this year the only difference is is that I actually uh took off the binding myself and I laminated the front cover of this uh schoolness minimal minimal planner because it actually doesn't come like this all of the planners come like this with the I don't know there's just a regular binding on the side and this is how my um planner looks after like a year of wear and tear so I really feel like it held up pretty well so I'm going to go ahead and show you guys how this planner looks right here since I have another video showing you guys the setup already of this one so this is last year's planner this is just the big bad boy in the lesson planning so this is my first page of my planner I still didn't fill out my index this right here has our schedule and our yearly overview all the days that we took off I have our attendance record the curriculum that we used last year and I even marked like if we finished it or not I have all of the resources that we've used so this is history science this is all the things that I use for my pre-care at the time I have our fill trips which you guys I don't think we did any fill trips last year and you know it is what it is we have different seasons for things so yeah that is my fill trips calendar that I tempted to do here is the books that we read and I have all the little pictures in here I didn't complete it and do all of them I kind of got fatigued towards the end but it's okay so what I'm going to do you guys is I'm going to pull out a week and show you guys how a week of my lesson planning looked here so here is my reflections page where I would take a picture of either me working like with the kids so here I'm going to zoom you guys in so right here I have a picture of my oldest doing her science and doing math and then I have a picture right here of me working with my four-year-old at the time she was four on her um Matthew C right here and then I have a picture of all of her crafts that she got up to in her all about reading pre-reading this right here was a schedule that I typed out for um how we were doing like our weekly days so I always glue it in on here and if it was anything I wanted to write in or fill out I would here is actually how our whole week would look so uh I would reverse plan so in starting off our week I will only write like the subjects and the dates across and then as we go throughout the course of the week I will go ahead and fill it in and then I love this planner right here is because it had these daily detail pages and what I used them for was to write out specific things that my kiddos was working on things that I wanted to incorporate for the next week uh areas that I thought that they did really really well in and I really loved incorporating these daily detail pages because it was really notes and reminders for me as I was going into the next weeks and then my weeks will kind of go off the same and here goes another week I tagged to show you guys so here is another week this is a week where my oldest finished IEW we were so proud of her and um again here goes our week overview so now all of the weeks will be completely full which is completely fine I mean I feel like that is homeschooling some weeks are busier than others so this is how this week looked and again here goes my daily detail pages where I like to write details of what all the kids got up to and then here is my you know next month and this was our last month of the year so that is how this planner looked for last year now here is my school next planner oh you guys excuse the table I didn't clean it off this is our homeschool table but it's all good um here is my homeschooling planner uh and how it looks right now I'm going to give you guys a brief flip through again so um here is my first page of my new school Nest minimal planner my index page is of course still not filled out yet I have our uh overview of our curriculum the lessons in each one and how I plan to attack them I have my calendar for the school year and all the field trips that I want to do right here I actually took a picture of the field trip and I plugged it in on this page right here here is our attendance record so here is all the days that I highlighted that we have done so far this homeschooling year here is our um classes that my oldest is taking and then here is the curriculum overview pages for uh all the kiddos here is the pages I haven't started these of the book list that we've read I think I just started my Kenny Gartner's books I'm only going to put her favorite books right here and I think I'm going to go ahead and write out the book list so when we end off our first six week term I'm going to come back in my planner and actually write out all the books but these so far were her two favorite this homeschooling year so I'm going to go ahead and go to our August month overview so here is my month overview at a glance and I have different things and schedules that I have going on so far for the month um here is my month in review so I will come back to this page after we complete the month of August so here let's go to my weekly layout so here is our first day of school pictures here is like my weekly goals for the week and any type of things that I have I want to do in the calendar I put there so this is our first week back at school I highlighted some of their favorite books our hymn study and um here is our second week back at school my goals and plans some of my um Kenny Gartner's favorite books for that week and again um this is everything that we did for that week so I reverse plan so the only thing I will have out at the beginning of the week is the subject and the days of the week and I will fill it in as we go and what I've been doing is taking this last column and using it as a note section so here is our third week back at school uh again somewhere a book I had to reread for my Kenny Gartner that she enjoyed one of my daughter's favorite books she enjoyed and again this week was a slower week for us so um these are the goals that I have for us to do on our third week and a new um independent read my daughter read that week notes here is our week four what we got up to my weekly reflections goals books that my kiddos read we had our home school hangout and they talked about pollinators which was really really fun uh here is like some of the books that the kiddos enjoy a new read aloud and then right here is our next week that is coming up which is uh week five and I have my goals that I did already and then right here this is how my calendar actually or my um planner actually looks for that week where I just write out everything that I plan to do and then as we go through each day I will fill it out so now I have my notes and then I have my morning time right here on the side I have math English literature history and science for my oldest for my younger two my Kenny Gartner and my preschooler I have them right here at the bottom because my oldest kind of takes up most of the planner for right now so this is how my planner is looking right now you guys so I gave you a sneak peek and I can't wait to talk to you guys about my August update and all the things we got up to in my next upcoming video okay you guys another most common question I get is how do I create the small little pictures that I put inside of my planner so for the most part how I create those pictures is I go on to amazon and I type in whatever book that I am looking to make a small picture or replica to put in my planner and the main keys that I press because I am using a mac or iOS I press command shift four to take a small screenshot of that particular book that I'm looking for and that is how I I guess get the right size that I want so typically I don't resize the image I just use that little image that it has on amazon so at that point then what I will do is I go to whatever like word processor that you like to use I like to use google documents because it's completely free it reminds me a lot of microsoft word and what I do is I take my screenshot and I just drag it on to my new word document and that is how I save all of the pictures that I want to add in my planner and I simply print them out at my glue and washi tape you guys my next question that I have is I have been binge watching your content this week so I'm so glad I found you I have three kids 11 five and three in the same grade just yours I like to know what resources you plan to use what methods you are planning for study hall time with your sixth grader since this is something now I would love to work with mine as well over the years so for right now as far as our study hall period for my sixth grader the main thing that I'm working on right now is note taking skills so because we did IEW structure and style last year for my sixth grader we are following a similar model as far as taking notes and writing and citing sources and writing them in her own words so that is the main thing that we're working on right now I really wanted her to get used to doing some type of note taking skills as far as like Cornell notes and we've really been focusing on that and that is the only skill I have been working on right now but for my study hall period again it's really going to be helping my daughter learn how to do note taking skills and study skills because as she is getting further and further in her academics I do want her to have the confidence in being able to consume information and be able to write notes on her own because I definitely know because she is on a college path here in our home school I definitely want her to be able to have that skill mastered as she is entering high school because I do plan for her to do dual enrollment classes so right now that is our only focus in our study hall period but I definitely know we can use it for a variety of different things but right now we are working on note taking skills and in her oak metals curriculum she's working on citing sources right now so that's really really cool and I really have been helping her do that um she's been citing her uh sources right now in mla format however I do want to teach her how to do other formats in citing sources as well so you guys my uh next question is um I love this video and I admire the dedication and the progress in your home school kudos thank you so much and it says any chance can you elaborate on the use for your science notebooks so you guys I am going to flip you guys around I'm going to give you a sneak peek inside of our old school next science notebooks and I may even give you a sneak peek of our history science notebooks so you can kind of see some of the inspiration and ideas that I get when I am doing like some type of interactive notebook for my kiddos okay you guys here is our school nest notebooks from last year this is the history one we used in the science one and I'm going to briefly show you guys um some of the pages that my daughter did last year this is her chart that she charted the weather um when we was going over our weather unit she really really enjoyed that um so honestly when it comes to notebooking in their science journals to really be honest um I kind of just go with the flow so if the curriculum told us to look up vocabulary words I may look up vocabulary words and have my kiddos find pictures that they enjoy so this year of course we were studying space um so that is kind of like how this notebook started as far as science goes um any types of prompts that my curriculum does tell me to do that's typically what I would do and if I find like any free interactive notebooking pages that I like on teachers pay teachers that's definitely like an opportunity that I will use to like add in different notebooking pages within our like science notebook um this page right here um was when we went over like the layers of the earth and most of these templates like I say I do find on teachers pay teachers whatever we are studying so this one was my daughter's absolute favorite was when she had an opportunity to write out little facts and information about each of the planets and she really really loved doing this simple um activity when it came to science and I really loved it because I was able to see how fluid she was when it came to like her more structured writing since she was working on IEW at the time um here is like a space exploration timeline when we got to that and layers of the atmosphere once we got into more of the earth so this is just examples of how her school next science notebook looked and again I typically pick off interactive things from teachers pay teachers and a lot of free resources is on there especially when it comes to interactive notebooks here is history and it kind of looks the same in starting off um typically what I do is like this uh book this was a picture book that we were reading I would typically find a passage or a copy work passage that I really felt that stood out in that book and I might have my daughter write it out and we may add some pictures um other times I may have her like write a timeline um right here she redid the poetry and she wrote the copy work of I2 in America um I think she also in here um right here this is a picture or a little map that she made when we went over the middle passage and she wrote about it right here the triangular trait so um it just really depends like right here she just wrote a quote on Booker T Washington so to really be honest um each of the pages when it comes to the notebooking it just really depends on whether I want her to write a summary whether we're going to do a copy work passage uh whether we're going to write a quote we're going to you know find pictures about that person uh I just really leave our notebooking really really open and fluid and I really allow um my daughter to really have fun and she really really enjoys notebooking so that is how I utilize my science and my history notebooks and these are the ones from last year don't worry you guys in my update video um my daughter gave me the permission to share with you guys her notebooking that she has done for this year so far as well so you guys thank you so much for watching today's video I really hope that I have answered all of you guys's most commonly asked comments and questions if you guys have any more questions for me please leave them down below in the comment section and I definitely will make more videos like this if you have enjoyed them I really enjoyed creating this video and I really feel like this is my apology to all of you guys for not getting back to all of your guys's questions I'm here on my channel so as always you guys thank you so much for watching and I look forward to seeing everybody in my next one bye


I need to thank, first of all, the ERC for, well, the whole six-year project of which this is a small piece. And then also, you'll notice we're not at SOAS, we're at the friend's house because we couldn't find a room at SOAS. So I'd also like to thank the Society of Friends for being our gracious hosts today. Otherwise, I'll just get started with my paper. All right. So I'm going to start a little bit philosophical, which is when we're doing historical linguistics, what is data? What's our relationship to data? So in order to simplify matters, I've taken an example not from the Burmese languages, but from Gothic. So the Gothic language is more or less only attested in one book, which is the Codex Argenteus, which since the 17th century has been in the library of Upsola University. So this I am calling an artificial primary source. So it's some one used speech, and that has somehow been recorded in a physical substance in a way that it exists today and can be consulted. But not everyone can necessarily go to Upsola. So sorry for the size here, but on the left we have the kind of traditional, prestige, locus classicus edition of the Gothic Bible. It's called the Gotische by Bibel, and it was by Wilhelm Streitberg between 1908 and 1910. So this I'm calling an editorial primary source. So it's a representation of the artificial primary source in a way that's more convenient for consultation, just by virtue of being in libraries, for instance, but also potentially because it's transliterated or has some scholarly apparatus that makes it more convenient to consult than the artificial primary source. And then the next level of sort of epistemological distance that I would like to suggest is what I call a secondary source. Here is an example, this is a book. It's a dictionary of biblical Gothic by Brian Regan. So the nice thing about Gothic is all the words in this dictionary are in this book, right? Because we only have one book for this language. And my conceptualization here is that a historical linguist in his work may find it more convenient to consult a secondary source, but in principle any claim that's being made can be traced back to the artifactual primary source. And a good historical linguist would, if using a piece of information for an argument would always trace it back at least to the editorial primary source so that he felt confident it wasn't a typo or something like that. So in the case of the Burmese languages, so this is the Burmese languages, they're spoken at the border between Burma and China, and there's sort of around eight or nine of them. Only Burmese has a written tradition, and so this kind of model I've presented for Gothic works very well for Burmese because they have a written tradition, mostly stone inscriptions from the 11th to 14th century in terms of old Burmese, has very poor philological resources, so that makes it quite inconvenient as a historical linguist to work with. But the other languages are all modern. So this tripartite scheme of artifactual primary source, editorial primary source, and secondary source, how does it map onto languages with no literary tradition? And what I would suggest there is something like a physical record of the speech, like a wax cylinder or a wave file would be the artifactual primary source, and then a transcription of that, for instance, in electronic format, would be an editorial primary source, and then an article, scholarly article or a book or something with an argument, a grammar or a dictionary would be a secondary source. And one thing that's very lamentable, I think, is linguists tend to skip the first two, and they go straight from their fieldwork to their publication without ever making available somewhere the artifactual or the editorial primary source. There's no artifactual or editorial primary sources for the Burmese languages, and even in Sino-Tibetan I would say there are only two languages that I feel kind of satisfactory coverage in this way. One is Japook and the other one is Yongningna. Both have been worked on by people at the CNRS in Paris who have put really hundreds of hours of records online, both with the recording and the transcription. So in our research we can't use primary sources because they don't exist, which is frustrating. So instead, this is the kind of sources we are working with, which are word lists, and we have word lists made by missionaries or diplomatic officers in British colonial times, word lists made by Chinese field workers from the 50s until now, and then very recently word lists from the 1980s until now by missionaries associated with the Summer Institute of Linguistics. The British ones tend to be organized alphabetically by the English definition, whereas the other two sources are organized according to some predefined list of meanings. So the Chinese, for instance, they always start with the word for sky. And those of you who know about the Chinese indigenous lexicographical tradition, that will seem familiar to them. Now onto etymological dictionaries. We're writing an etymological dictionary. So here we have a little entry from a German etymological dictionary with the point just being that it's hard to read. I mean you might find it hard to read because it's small. It's also hard to read because it's full of acronyms and bibliographic things, and it's not so well organized that it's machine readable. So it's both hard to read for a human being and impossible to read for a computer. So we have tried to model here the information in this entry in terms of the relationship between the Latin words, and this is fruct, which comes from fructus in Latin, and the Latin word goes back to bre in the European, which is what's the German word? It's the same thing, Braufen, yeah. So the same Indo-European form becomes Braufen through inheritance in German. So we've tried to model this here, and in our own efforts we're trying to have some explicit models so that this data is kind of both human and machine readable. And then in this next chart, let's say, if you're writing software or something like Wikipedia articles, every line of, let's call it code, that someone changes, it's version control, so at the microscopic level you can look at any moment what did the thing look like, and then over time you can have some sort of representation like this, where each color is a different user, and then you see the lines of code that are written by those different users, and it would be nice if something like an etymological dictionary we could represent in this way. So you knew who contributed which ideas, when, and watched the knowledge expand over time. But in fact, if someone writes a new etymological dictionary of a language like Latin, 90% of the information, probably 99% is old, but there's no explicit model of what's old, what's new, what's original, where are the disagreements. So that's something we would like to make more explicit. So our aim is to digitize all of the relevant secondary sources, but we're starting with this one, Huang 1992. Sorry, we have digitized them all, but now we need to do something with that, and we're starting with Huang 1992 because this one book has about 2,000, we call them concepts, they're just English words, no, they're Chinese words, translated into eight or so Burmese languages. So it's one source that gives you a kind of coverage of the whole thing, and then we'll supplement that with other sources. Yeah, so then talking about the specifics of our project, we have the source like this, it's a page of a book, we have it digitized if necessary by copying it out manually, but better to use OCR and maybe subcontract it to a company that specializes in this sort of thing, and then for each point we have three pieces of information, the form, the meaning, and the language. So I'll give the example, here we have the word Tian is sky, but the source says Tian, yeah, and it's pronounced Muk in this language, and the language I would call in English Maru, but in Chinese it's called Langsu. So we need to normalize that, which is to say make that comparable with other sources. So we have to say Tian means sky, where sky is not the normal English word sky, but it's some sort of arbitrary reference point that we will map other words, meaning sky to and other sources. We will normalize the phonetics, which in this case it's already written in the IPA, so it's quite easy, you just normalize it with itself. But for the missionary sources for instance, they might use CH for the Cha sound, where we need to normalize that into how that would be written in IPA, and then we need to normalize the language names so we know that Maru and Langsu are the same thing, and for that we use these standardized lists, like the ISO codes and the glottalog codes. So once we have that all normalized and in CSV files, we have a piece of software that my partner has made called the edictor, which is sort of a software platform for editing etymological dictionaries, and I won't talk now about the guts of it because that's about how we do our research and the methodology of historical linguistics, and it's not about data management per se. But basically if I can put it in the best possible light, we click a few buttons and then we get something like this where systematic correspondences between words in the different languages are just presented to you as a user, and then you can reconstruct the protoform, and then even the computer will allow you to test how predictive your protoforms are. That's the part we're working on right now, it doesn't quite exist yet. So now just jumping to the back of this, I have some screenshots. So this is the software, the edictor, where we have, this is the default page if you just open up the system, so we have the meaning here above and then because it's alphabetical, right, it's written by English, and then all, and these are the different languages, these are different codes for keeping track of the morphemes, this is the IPA representation, and then this is where the computer is keeping track of, it knows for instance that a T is a voiceless dental stop, and then the colors are associated with different classes of sounds. So that's the system, and then this is our GitHub page, which is where we have all the digitized primary sources, and we have a little checklist for each primary source, have we normalized the meanings, have we normalized the forms, have we normalized the language names. So all of our sort of workflow is happening on the GitHub, I would say one problem we have is we tend to keep reverting to communicating over email, rather than through the issue tracker on the GitHub page, and so that's if you like one point of data management that we're struggling with, but in principle then everything we're doing is here online on the GitHub page until we finish, if you like. When we write up this article for instance, we do it in this system, which is called Overleaf, it's a latex system, so here's where you write the latex code, and then you get a PDF reproduced in real time. So for me as a kind of latex idiot, this solves a lot of the problems of using latex where you have to have a compiler and you get an error message and it doesn't compile. In real time it's compiling all the time and you can see what your document looks like, and then also, Madison and I can be logged into the file at the same time, him and Germany, me and London, it's no problem. So it's a great environment for collaborative research paper writing. So that's one system, and then this is Zanotto, where once we are ready for publication there's a certain amount of data or a certain amount of code associated with that publication, which then at the time of submission, we file with Zanotto so that it's there forever, for everyone's enjoyment. And then also that Zanotto provides a standard way that you can cite this data deposit, it associates a DOI with it, then you can use in your bibliography. So those are the different systems we have, so just over, now summing up, we get the data, which is only secondary data because the primary sources don't exist. We digitize that, we normalize that, we put it in the edictor system, we switch it all about, then we publish some research on the basis of it, which we write in the overview system and we deposit the data then in Zanotto, and then the one thing in my summary I left out then is while we're switching it all about, that is all kept track of, at least in principle, on our GitHub page. So that's it, and if I have extra time... You are helping me at the time, yes. Okay, then I guess we can take some questions. I will also invite you to clap. I suppose the most obvious question is in the process of doing this, you are recording for posterity part of your sort of academic, personal workflow. Beyond the intellectual historians of the 22nd century, who will obviously be over the moon to discover in the rubble of London in memory stick containing a copy of this. What purpose does that serve? As opposed to what you're recording about the primary sources, what purpose does it serve usefully to think to have a record of the construction of your particular secondary source? So I think on the one hand, it serves no ultimate purpose. The submission to Zenodo is the important part in terms of this is the data that we used and this is the code that we applied it to. That's what's important. The stuff on the GitHub page of like, it was on April 22nd that we digitized this source, or something, it's not of any importance, I think once the project is over. However, I think it is important that we feel comfortable exposing that to the public. Because if we want to hide something, it means we're embarrassed by it. Like, oh, we're very far behind digitizing our sources. So I think it's a good discipline to say this is not my private life here, this is my public life and it's my job. So everything should be out in the open. Pressure on that? Sure. I think that an alternative when somebody might take is that while I'm perfectly happy in a sense to share how I work and explain to somebody that for every good idea I put down on a published page, there were 10 really stupid ones beforehand. I don't necessarily want to share the 10 really stupid ideas that led to the one good one. From my perspective, they won't end up in the publication and if there is a person out there who is every morning reading our GitHub to look for a stupid idea that then they'll somehow mention in a public forum, that person has some psychological issues and some time management issues that aren't really my concern. Yeah.  Well, I think it is key and important because this is basically what allows you to do archaeology easier than later on, right? It allows you to trace and this is actually what makes the research transparent because right now the research is not transparent, especially in linguistics where none of this is ever shared, right? We don't know what the source data is. We cannot test and check the source data. We have no idea what steps have been applied that need to be analyzed because already that, but you see that is part of the analysis. So I think the division between complete data management versus analysis is one that is not correct because the way you manage your data the way you divide your data up and chunk it and relate it to each other is already part of the analysis process and this then in 50 years time will allow you to have a check on and it will see, oh, see, on the 21st of February they went in the wrong direction. Yeah, I think that... I mean, I also put in terms of version controlling like on software Wikipedia, what's the point of that? Like hopefully most of the time no one is wasting their time doing this like slice-by-slice retrospective look at anything because it's not a good use of human time. But it is there and it's also well hidden, right? It's not in the way, but it's there if it becomes important and I do think that's useful, but I would say that if someone said, look, you have to make me choose between depositing my data in a public archive or having a version control system for my workflow I would definitely say, well, that's a false dichotomy but if you're going to make me choose go with the archiving of your data in a public repository. Just to come back to your point many of us have tripped over mistakes made by people in farms and without a forensic analysis of trial like we have here we don't always understand how the mistakes that the past came about. We don't understand about how they came about. We're quite happy to commit them again. So it's very useful to have a forensic trial as you say to see where someone may have rolled in the past so I think that's really helpful. You're receiving a get-up, two things. First is it's a collaborative platform. So if you're writing code with underneath a call you having kids and get-up as a way of merging your code together and ensuring that there is a master version of that code available that everyone agrees on it's very important and get-up does that extremely well. That's the first thing. The second thing is if people are using your code again they can go they may not want the final version they may think oh they've written some code here that's very useful that was written six months ago they can take the repository back to that stage and then build on top of the code that we use that for. So if your Nathan's research is being funded publicly I assume and therefore people should be able to do that. Yeah, I agree with all that. I think that those considerations are particularly important for software writing which is what get-up was designed to do. So one question is just sort of practically speaking would it not be better if there was some kind of version controlled etymological dictionary writing platform? Well that doesn't exist and get-up would we more or less find easy enough to use that it works for our purposes but actually Mattis just made me aware in the last couple days about something called the Open Science framework and they seem to have designed a similar kind of version control workflow system particularly with biologists and psychologists in mind which might be more user friendly than get-up in terms of using the command line potentially to push and pull things. So I do think that in the near future hopefully but it will take all of us to be on board with this agenda having version control systems that are more easily usable by disciplines other than computer science like epigraphy or religious studies would be a good development and I bet I really have only just barely looked at it but I bet this Open Science framework is somehow specifically geared to biologists and psychologists that that might be a step towards the sort of work we're doing but maybe more work needs to be done in that direction as well. I think that let's because then we'll be a tiny, tiny bit early. So please


My name is Anthony Chung. I'm the Head of Market Analysis here at Amplify Trading. If you'd like to learn how to trade the Amplify way, then check out Amplify Live in the link below to access our latest on-demand training content. I'll see you in there. OK. Very good morning to you. Thursday, 5th of November. Hope everyone's recovered now from the election night. Thank you to everyone again who was joining us live on Amplify Live. Great to have you on board throughout, but just having a look then at markets this morning and really going to kick things off looking at the scoreboard from last night, which is the close on Wall Street and what a phenomenal close it was, particularly for the large mega cap tech names. And as like 100 yesterday, finishing up about 4.4%. And as you can see here, some of these biggest blocks, familiar names of course, the big out performer Facebook up over 8%. Amazon 6.3%, Google 6%, Microsoft 4.8% and Apple 4.1%. So some monster gains again from these companies and a little bit surprise actually when I left my desk at around 6am the previous morning when we kind of concluded our election at the time coverage. I was a little bit apprehensive in fact going into the European Open about how people would perceive quite a close run race. The rationale being that I thought it hasn't been the blue wave that a Biden storming victory that some would have seen, the closer then it was going to be, the more contested legally it was like to be from Trump. I just thought that that longer, more protracted process might well cause a little bit of disruption to markets kind of just general psychology over being quite nervous and that the longer it would have taken to get an end result, perhaps then people would panic a little bit particularly given how markets have been rallying up into the election on the notion of a Biden win. So that didn't happen of course and looking at what happened yesterday, I think it is fairly clear to see why what happened yesterday did happen now. If you think about Biden and a couple of things, what he means in terms of the trade war just softening that kind of protectionist rhetoric out of the US which is obviously very important for China but also other trade partners around the world including Europe, probably not being able to push through a tax hike, which was one of the things he wanted to do and would have been able to probably achieve much more effectively if he had a clean blue sweep. But that doesn't look like it's going to be the case, the Senate remaining Republican means that it's likely then there's not going to be any change on that front anytime soon and then the chances of major legislation passing could be particularly slim and that in itself is a good sign for many different industries but in particular as well no imminent tougher regulations around what would be impeding the technology sector, particularly the dominant tech names like the ones I've just mentioned means that for them then it's a major risk or hurdle eliminated in the near term because of the split nature of Congress and so they just rallied really sharply last night. So yeah definitely was surprising and just looking at the charts this morning I was just having a look on the NASDAQ obviously up a sharp amount yesterday but we're already up in the futures again we've just taken out 12,000 now in a NASDAQ so the continued recovery this is just looking then on a slightly longer time frame at a daily continuation chart and I've just marked up here the Biden victory but split Congress being good for tech and now we're at 12,000 technically you've got the high that was seen here back on the 16th which was also the low on the 13th and previous highs back going to the summer initial push to the all-time highs at the time so quite an interesting level here at around 12,029 or so in the NASDAQ but a break above that then I don't see why we wouldn't have a quick run up then to the highs that we were seeing back in the mid part of October which would be more around 12,172,75 type area so definitely an obstacle here resistance-wise but breaking of that then there could be potential to another decent push of upside here in the NASDAQ looking at the S&P the S&P is trading at 34,71 at the moment but one thing I wanted to share was this this will make Sam North particularly happy and this is the call from Goldman Sachs they basically said their cross-asset macro conference call that took place yesterday this election outcome was becoming more visible in terms of the Biden victory and they said the reader cross can be summarised there's no change, nothing to see here basically so what they're suggesting then and given the aforementioned reasons as I mentioned about the lack of shackling Biden of what he could have done because even if you look at things like oil prices yesterday rallying oil majors also benefiting the new administration would be restrained from enacting on some of its most ambitious proposals on things like climate proposals for example so all being equal it just means that they feel pretty bullish they got a year end call at 3600 looking at a 12 month outlook at 3800 for the S&P in terms of what Goldman's are expecting this again was as of yesterday quick look across the other asset classes then and in the FX market the dollar is down just a touch 0.1% Eurodollar and cable both up around a similar margin of about 10-15 pips cable a little spike we did have the Bank of England meeting just a short while ago which I'll recap the details in a moment and then elsewhere T-notes also up about 7.5-6 so here is again an interesting thing I was talking to some of the traders about last night in fact which was trying to explain to them why there's a synchronised move here with bonds and stocks both moving higher with a weaker dollar and therefore gold price also moving higher up about 14 bucks again having surmounted 1900 yesterday evening and so the idea being here is that again back to the split nature of congress then the ability for the democrats to push through a media and very large scale stimulus remember they were going for much larger than the republicans were the likelihood of that is now less likely because of the senate being retained by the republicans and so therefore just seeing a bit of a pullback in yields in the US which is lifting fixed income and consequently as well that lack of stimulus just seeing the dollar ease off which is lifting then gold prices given how inverse that relationship has been of late so that's the kind of rationale behind what a lot of that cross asset class movement was about otherwise oil is backed off a little bit in the overnight Asia pacific session from where it was with the recovery back above 39 which was a short term range kind of high so I'll be keeping back to on the futures chart back to keeping an arm 3883 which is around that kind of range high that was shackling some of the price activity back on Tuesday and was a little bit supportive as well for periods of the session yesterday so when you push back above there it would be worth keeping an arm but if we continue to kind of found the flames of the general sentiment from yesterday could well be again a breakthrough that just grinding up higher in a similar fashion to the equity market okay let's have a quick look then at a few things and this is looking at then what is the current state of play so as you've probably read overnight it's pretty much wrapped up now that Joe Biden is going to win the election and this is a far cry from where we were on the night if you remember those that joined us when Trump won Florida then he started to pick up some of the other states in that kind of early hour activity it did look like Biden was looking like a bit of a flop and Trump certainly did outperform comparative to polls by a sharp degree but fast forward to where we are now and the mathematical possibilities as we'll discuss here for Trump now are looking highly unlikely that he's going to come through so Biden last night won Michigan and Wisconsin and if anyone was following me on Twitter you would have seen us kind of running the numbers last night and sharing a few insights and Michigan really is where it's at because in the current vote counts that have happened in the other states you could almost dictate who was going to win what the one on the on the fence was Michigan and now that's gone to Biden that's pretty much sealed it for him he also then won Wisconsin these are massively important battleground areas and again that puts him on the brink now getting the keys to the White House Biden needs now to only win one more additional state such as Nevada where he is leading currently and he's over the line basically if he wins Georgia where his campaign believes absentee votes will push him over the top then he's won so here Biden can reach 270 by winning just that one additional state and you can see here there's still a few to come in so once again Pennsylvania very important but given some of the flips that Biden has already done against what Clinton lost particularly likes Michigan and Wisconsin he doesn't even need Pennsylvania now to get to that magic 270 and again he's on 264 at the moment and areas like Georgia for example are pretty big on the electoral college vote and that will easily put him over the line but even just Nevada which accounts for for five or so I think it's five votes perhaps it's more in fact what's yet to be called will push him over the line and then you've got how can Trump win from here because no one's declared a victory just yet and that's the reason behind that is that basically for Trump to win not only does he have to win Pennsylvania here he needs to needs to basically secure North Carolina, Georgia and Nevada in order to get get it through so he's got to win all of the remaining battleground areas and it's not looking favourable for him given the current status of the accounts at the moment that he's going to achieve that that would then put him one vote over a 271 to Biden's 264 of where it resides at the moment Trump's campaign has said that he is going to sue in Pennsylvania Michigan to halt votes that have been trending toward Biden Trump campaign has said it would demand a recount as well in risk constant not sure really what difference a contested legal battle from Trump is going to mean for financial markets because in my mind everyone knows Trump has telegraphed this for some time that he was going to challenge this outcome if it was going to be relatively close for Biden and so I think if markets were nervous about that then we'd already be selling off and not rallying right now so I think the markets just jumping on this kind of split congress Biden victory as for the positives we just discussed earlier why we rallied yesterday so all in all I don't think there's a lot Trump can do really and where he goes from here who knows I'm sure he'll sign a big book deal and have a TV show a lot of money so I don't think we need to worry too much about about Donald taking care of himself in the future another interesting thing here to think about though is the US COVID situation AFP has tweeted that US COVID-19 cases hit a new daily record topping 99,000 cases citing John Hopkins university while a major newswire Tally noted US cases rose by 105,000 which is by far the higher single day increase that we've seen remember going into the election numbers were stabilizing around 80,000 some of these reports are jumping out to 105,000 and don't forget there's a lot of physical in person voting that were done during the election day in itself as well as campaigning that was done last minute particularly on the side of Trump in some of his physical campaign rallies so one would think that number is going to get worse over the coming week and weeks and now that we have Biden in the White House it's going to be interesting to see what the general rhetoric is towards lockdowns now an interesting point there of course is that although Biden has won Donald Trump is still in the White House until the inauguration which isn't going to come for a number of weeks during that time of course COVID is going to get a lot worse so really it's on Trump's watch still Biden of course if I was tactical for Biden I'd be putting a lot of pressure on Trump to kind of shut down to a certain degree parts of the economy just to make Trump look even worse and so that any economic impact that that might have or then that's on Trump's watch when I come in it's a fresh new star and you can start from a low base economically if the economic implications have really hit through more stringent restrictions implemented from Trump whether Trump wants to do that just to be a pain I mean there is obviously the cost of human life here on the line but we know what politicians are like so yeah that's definitely something to keep an eye on because at the moment some kind of action needs to happen for COVID to be contained in the US for sure the one big winners here are you guessed it these guys the rich just get richer Bezos, Amazon up 6% yesterday I'm feeling quite bullish about them going forward as well as the rest of the mega cat tech names not only because of the fact that there's no imminent now tougher regulations because Biden hasn't got the type of commanding control on Capitol Hill because of the Senate being Republican but if we go into another period of lockdown in the US well then it's going to benefit these types of companies which we have seen flourished under a pandemic conditions just given the way of which their companies are structured and the products and services in which they offer Moving on then I'm going to have a quick look at a few other things and starting off with the Fed because I'll go through Fed then I'll move to the UK, the BOE and Brexit but with the Fed we do have an FMC meeting of course this evening but it's going to be a non-event so I don't really anticipate too much at all to be quite honest they're going to hold off any major changes in policy unlikely to be much in the way of many hints or changes anything of that nature just given the fact that there's still a lot of uncertainties of course around the election still things though have shown signs of deterioration economically and I think that will cause an adjustment and a slight tweak in their statement to say that they're seeing new risks to the economic recovery as the virus picks up again and particularly given the way that the virus is accelerating at this point in North America a power likely to reiterate that the central bank stands ready to do more to help the kind of sputtering US recovery at the moment one thing to be aware of is that San Francisco president Mary Daley who is of a neutral disposition from a monetary policy perspective she isn't a voting member of the FMC but will vote in this meeting taking the place of the Minneapolis Fed president Neil Cush Cary who will abstain from meeting for the birth earlier this week of his second child that's pretty swift I thought he only had his first child less than a year ago so he's a braver man than me Neil Cush Cary but Cush Cary is a dove his interim replacement daily is neutral I don't think that really makes a great deal of a difference because they're not in a position really to make any significant changes so I don't think we need to talk about them or the FMC for too much longer we have had the Bank of England this morning and you've probably witnessed the pound rocketing hard on the back of this and it's in a similar vein to what we've had of late which is kind of counterintuitive move to what would normally happen a larger than expected boost to quantitative easing and an increase to money supply generally theoretically would weaken the currency but quite the opposite the pound has strengthened now a lot of this thinking was similar to what we saw in the euro when we had the implementation of the European Recovery Fund back in May when the ECB and the Guard overdelivered on their PEP pledge and their overall envelope well in excess of a trillion euros euros actually rallied and so the pound has done a similar thing now a lot of this is because economically we're in a very fragile, precarious situation and so if they're throwing more at it then it kind of alleviates then the apprehension anxieties in the market about the economic situation so it seems there's a positive move when they overdeliver at this point overriding them the underlying increase in money supply another question I had is this was actually semi kind of leaked last night so again on Twitter I don't tend to sleep these days there's just 2020 there's too much going on in the markets but there was a leak in the telegraph where pretty much this came out and the Sun newspaper actually broke this they were talking about the fact that they were going to go for 150 possibly 200 someone did ask me in Amphi live in our chat room why would they do that why would they leak that so close to the actual event and usually what happens then is that remember before every central bank major decision there's normally a two day meeting of the committee in this case the monetary policy committee the NPC now at the conclusion of those talks that's when they'll put up their hand they'll have a final vote then of what is the course of action from a policy perspective that they're going to take it probably would have been then a pretty lengthy discussion and at the end they decided that given the fact that the UK has gone into now the most extreme lockdown we've had since the first wave back in kind of March April and things are getting worse at this point with Covid with the compounded negative possibility of a messy negotiations surrounding Brexit and increasing risk of no deal even if a deal then the implications then for Q1 and beyond they just felt like they needed to do more and so what they do is they just call up the guy at the Sun whichever newspaper and then they'll drip feed it in under sources and that then prepares the market so it's not spooked and shocked when a piece of information comes out remember the intention of a central bank is to mitigate volatility in markets they want nice controlled orderly response to their policy changes and communications so it's quite typical this type of activity here the guy I was talking to also said to the Sun really yeah I mean absolutely in my old job see when I used to run an analyst desk absolutely I'd have to look at the Sun every morning and every day you know don't discount then a publication just because of its readership demographic let's say on social economic status I think you'd be wrong in thinking that news can come from anywhere yes it comes more frequently from certain sources which are more aligned to talking about business and politics specifically but even with the latter the Sun is actually particularly good at that and the Sun's main political editor will also be at all of the same meetings with the telegraph at times so just be aware of that so that's the kind of BOE situation a couple of comments that I thought were worth looking at they kept rates unchanged so that's very much as expected no one as much as there is so much talk about negative rates we're not at that juncture just yet for me it's all about just talking about negative rates to get in the investor psyche that we're willing to do it and it's an option a credible one on the table I don't think they want to do it but that's part of the art of the forward guidance I guess they did say signs consumer spending has softened across high frequency indicators the outlook for the economy remains unusually uncertain UK trade and GDP are also likely to be affected during an initial period of adjustment over the first half of next year given Brexit they did downgrade then their GDP outlook as well with their latest monetary policy report which also came out downgrading this year and looking for a more shallow type recovery going to 2021 hence the reason why they're over delivered on the QE 150 against 100 expected talking of Brexit where are we on this at the moment EU UK negotiators will make a further effort next week as talks have been paused as of yesterday before resuming next week now looking to hammer out differences where there are still apparent very serious divergences on all of the same things focus on getting fisheries level playing field breakthrough they are still said to be the main sticking points at this point in time the two sides face an approximate mid November deadline of course to broker an agreement in time for it to be ratified by Westminster and by European Parliament again I see that as a semi hard kind of deadline the real tangible one of course is the legal one which is the end of transition at the end of this year so for me I tend to think that these kind of deadlines that we've had whether self-imposed like from Boris Johnson that we've had mid October end of October now it's mid November it's strategic within any negotiation to have a near term to kind of target just to keep momentum behind discussions but I really don't think there's much in the way of credibility I mean at the end of the day if they need to then have an interim hold period of an extension of weeks months just to get it ratified both in the Westminster and in Brussels I think that that's fine so therefore that would lead to the belief then that perhaps then striking a deal doesn't come to the last moment looking into December I wouldn't be surprised by that at all at the moment though short term markets don't really care about Brexit because of that timeline it's not really a pressing issue right now even though it will be in a period ahead because right now the pounds jumped on the BOE and people are just digesting the dollar led movement which is still key given we're still digesting the US election the other thing worth to mention as well as Rishi Sunak UK Chancellor is going to come out and announce his new Covid 19 economic support for the whole UK today this comes after the reintroduction of the furlough 80% funding scheme for companies wages when following when England went into lockdown and that's what's caused quite a big reaction generally in the political world against the government because furlough has only been reintroduced when England and the south predominantly the south east has gone into then full lockdown whereas as we know areas in the north and in other countries that comprise of the UK have already been in lockdown for some time and there was no forthcoming furlough kind of commitment then so Rishi's going to face some challenging questions I'm sure but overall we know what the situation is there so I don't think it's particularly market moving otherwise wrapping up the other headlines of the morning German factory orders rose for a fifth month in September this is what that looks like for German manufacturing seeing demand increasing for a fifth month but as you can see we had this massive catastrophic collapse in activity as you would imagine through then the first lockdown in the spring we've had a massive comeback as we get reopening of the economies and it's kind of all that pent up demand that was lost over that period whereas now it's been diminishing and so for me I think this is particularly important last Friday the German minister for the economy said the government predicts the economy will contract by more than 5% this year another aid programme worth 10 billion euros is already in the pipeline for companies shuttered by month long and partial lockdowns in Germany but for me this number doesn't really matter what matters now is about the future and the future being the coming months given the fact that we've only had in the last two weeks Germany has reintroduced quite strict lockdown measures and not only that factory orders when we're talking about a country that exports goods the rest of the world on most of their main clients whether that's in mainland Europe, UK, US Covid is getting worse likely requiring more restricted measurements from their local governments or national governments and so it's going to be challenging for Germany to keep this afloat hence the reason why the government is offering 10 billion euros to assist in a similar fashion to the other mechanisms that the likes of the UK have done to help companies looking at the calendar for today we've already had the bank of England of course and the German data so that's pretty much wrapped it up in terms of the key fixed things for this morning construction PMIs it's really a moot point doesn't move the markets then going in European retail sales not important either so I wouldn't get too bog down with that and then we go into the US afternoon and it's the final kind of job indicators going into non farms tomorrow on Friday so we get challenger layoffs initial jobless claims 12.30 and 1.30 the initial jobless claims is expected at 751,000 today then you've got the Fed in the evening again largely to be a bit of a non event I'm sure I'll drop in on the outfire live chat at the time that comes out though just to make sure you never know and then the ECB speakers really dominate on that side of things 11.40 de Gwindos 5.03 Schnabel at 3.10 and then Fed shares press conference begins half an hour after initial statement release so power will be up at 7.30 ok so that is it any questions at all feel free to just drop me a question in the comments and I'll be more than happy to help those have yourself a good day and it's looking like we're going to have a new president in the White House well done Joe Biden