Week 14 is an intriguing one for NFL DFS because we've got some lower salary plays in non terrible games There's some mid-range guys I don't hate in games that I don't mind and honestly it grades out pretty well We can actually do some fun things whether it be a quarterback tight end Maybe a high-side receiver or running back and I kind of like the way this slate sets up We're gonna break down that slate talk about some key game stacks this week talk down Who those mid-range and lower salary players are we like and we want to Outline where we're allocating that salary when filling out week 14 Fandall DFS lineups This is the heat check fantasy podcast right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research joined here as I am every Thursday by Brandon Ghadoula check him out on Twitter at Ghadoula 13 You can find his work at Fandall research where he is a senior managing editor Brandon week 14 is coming in hot How you doing today? Yeah, let me be the first day. I can't believe it's already week 14 It does feel like it's flying by but then I think back to back when we had I Mean well the first thing that came to mind with injuries was Nick Chubb, but like, you know That feels like a long time ago too. So but things are flying by this week's really Really interesting from from a lot of different the angles, but you know, I'll answer the question I'm doing great Jim. How are you? Oh, thank you Brandon. I'm doing great as well. I appreciate that you got you found your way there proud of you You know a little bit of meandering, but it's okay. You touched some key points along the way You mentioned the Nick Chubb injury feeling like it was forever ago I feel like Seahawks Cowboys, which is one week ago was a decade ago. So I get it We're all in the same boat, but honestly like you get this like Rejolt of energy in I feel like to me I'm not sure if you've had the same experience but the past month has been very good to me for DFS and I think a lot of it is because we've been able to get back to basics with key check favorites of Just stacking up good games and letting the cards fall where they may and I think that that is something we can do again This week specifically with Bill's chiefs, but also I think to an extent Rams Ravens despite the fact that total is low and then Also to an extent 49ers vs. Seahawks We're gonna break down those games from a from a bookmaking perspective letting you know what we're seeing in those games Outline other spots where you see some value for this week and get you ready for week 14 and DFS But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast You wherever you get your podcast Tom Vecchio is with you every weekday breaking down NDA DFS on the daily iso That show also goes up on the fan duel TV plus app You can also find us there with the heat check every Monday and Thursday the heat check shows also streamed live over on the fandal YouTube page So shout out to YouTube you leave us a thumbs up if you like what you see over there If you like what you hear leave us a five star rating on Apple podcast or Spotify And then if you want to watch us on fandal TV plus go to fandal.com a slash watch And log in with their fandal account you can watch up and Adams run it back You can watch covering the spread heat check whatever it may be daily iso all in the fandal TV plus app also available on Amazon fire Apple TV or Roku devices also a free play is up once again for week 14 If you want to enter the free play for week 14 go to fandal.com slash research the fandal research free play There is a post on the main page of fandal research where you can find a link to the free play for week 14 Fandal.com slash research to find the link for that Score early this NFL season with fandal America's number one sportsbook right now new customers get $150 and bonus bets with any winning $5 moneyline bet That's a hundred and fifty bucks if your team wins if you've been thinking about joining fandal There is no better time to get in on the action. 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I hope this year is a gambling helpline MA.org or call you 103 27 5050 for 24 7 supporter, Massachusetts or call 1877 hoping why or text open why in New York? Let's dig in now to our slate overview for week number 14 Brandon when you look at the week 14 main slate What stands out to you as being the key to filling out a good lineup for this week? Basically figuring out which non obvious games I want to prioritize There are a very small handful of games that just jump out release the offenses in some cases that the jump out but After that it feels really flat and you can make a case for a lot of different games a lot of different teams Lot of different one-offs, which if anyone's listened to the show the whole season. They know I don't love the one-offs even in just sort of my main highest well, I must say highest floor but Safest sort of lineup because the floor does not exist and you got to ignore the floor But I think trying to parse through and there's the graphic Just trying to parse through the other games and figure out where I feel good. So this show is going to be very helpful In that regard because it's really easy to kind of take a look at the slate see who stands out relative to salary Like from a primary standpoint and then you got to take that next step and figure out like okay I can't just play, you know, I can't play all the cheese and bills, right? Like where do I go from there? Part but that's fine. Go ahead Can you fill out one lineup with nobody else? Legally, no, but I would if I could that's what I'm saying So we got to go somewhere else and figuring out which of those games stands out I think it's gonna be very helpful as we talk through this slate. Yeah, so for me it's like building around the key games I like and I'm okay going with the obvious ones because Honestly, like they're standouts for a reason Like that bills chiefs game Like I'll just I'll build around that game and kind of go from there But I think the key thing for me on the main slate is how good the mid-ranges at running back and then how good The like sixty five hundred and lower ranges at receiver, which we haven't really seen a lot this year I've had a hard time finding value receivers I did not despise most of this year and for some reason this week there are four guys I feel legitimately good about using those guys being the Zay flowers Rishi rice Odell Beckham and Jackson Smith and Jigba Maybe there are more but like having four is four more than we had literally last week. So It's a weird deviation where I know I can spend up a quarterback I can spend up a tight end and I want to do that this week via guys like Kelsey Kittle and then all the quarterback so I feel like it's a Like I was talking about going back to basics with he checked stuff like stacking games It's also a massive deviation where I'm spending down a running back and receiver in order to spend up a quarterback and tight end so Back to basics in one sense as far as stacking gains But then massive deviation and using the savings at running back and receiver in order to spend up at least right now at quarterback and tight end Yeah, I think I think the whole Shift for us at running back over the years where we're very receptive to running backs and like the 7,000 range Is because those are the featured backs aside from like the true elite Which is basically just Christian McCaffrey, right?  I would assume there's a little bit of a trend In the red zone in terms of passing I could be wrong in that but at the very least things are getting spread out a little bit more But the you know in years past the 7,000 range would be the players with like Week snap rates and stuff, but like these are the these are a lot of the featured backs now So like Zach was 95% of the snap weekend is $6,800 Like are you telling me we're shot whites like not the teams like the Buccaneers featured back he is 80% snap rate every week, you know Yeah, so like is the production as good as you know the David Johnson's of years past obviously not but it's it's a whole different landscape now. So I'm with you that that mid-range at running back and trying to narrow that down to is It's gonna be a you know, I have my favorites and everything But yeah being receptive to moving away if I need to Is gonna be look this is gonna be a sort of for me a discussion-based kind of show agreed All right, so let's dive into a beginning with the injuries for week 14 Trevor Lawrence didn't practice Wednesday with a high ankle sprain CJ Bedford would start if Lawrence can't go and in very Iowa fashion.  What's the same Lawrence does not play? I think there's a chance he does But like let's assume for now. He does not So I don't really even target good teams against the Browns if I can avoid it I'm I don't see a lot here the salaries though for Calvin Ridley and Like Evan Ingrams is a little high at 57, but I think he's a good player. He can like he's got some Athleticism he's do well. He's been I feel like he's eternally due for some some TD regression, but he got there last week Yeah, um, so so should be more in the way, but you know, I I don't think that This is a situation even if Lawrence plays he's not gonna be near a hundred percent That I'd want to get there as a primary Maybe you could talk me into as we talk about this next injury like a bit of a mini stack, but I think I'm mostly out on the Jaguars. What about you? Yeah, I think if Lawrence were to miraculously play I could talk myself into Parker Washington at forty one hundred dollars You know, you're a huge Penn State guy. So you got that going for you a Washington A Penn State guy had like a very low breakout age like very young breakout age And popped up last week with uh, Christian Kirk going down and played really well Not like he was a bad prospect or anything. Uh, but he's rookie He looked good in that game So if Lawrence were to play maybe I get there, but like it's not just Lawrence that has caused this total to be low There's also a lot of wind in this game, which we'll talk about later on as far as some bad weather for this week Uh, like you mentioned the defense is very good Like I bet the under on this game before Lawrence got hurt when it was 36 and a half so like I'm not expecting a lot of scoring or even if Lawrence does play so Maybe Washington, but likely not even there as for the other game You mentioned other half of this game Mari Cooper didn't practice Wednesday due to a concussion and an injury to his ribs Joe Flacco remained with the first team offense here with Cooper leaving early in week 13 Flacco fed Elijah Moore, but It was a lot of prayer yards a lot of un-catchable deep balls Shocker from Joe Flacco and now they're in a game of the total 30 and a half. So if Cooper does sit What is your interest level in Elijah Moore? It's moderate, um He had 251 air yards last week, which if anyone doesn't know It's just like how many yards downfield the ball traveled Whenever you were targeted As Jim mentioned not all of those were catchable or anything like that but You want air yards because downfield targets are just generally worth more fandal points on average because when you catch those They're very impactful, but his 251 air yards were more than any other player all season. I believe there have been nine Games this year with two where a player had 200 air yards in a game Um, so like that was by far the sort of best workload from an air yard standpoint there's still risk Based on how many are catchable and everything like that, but It's hard to turn like completely turned down considering Elijah Moore at 62 This week with that kind of workload and he and flacco have a bit of a rapport from their time together with the jets. So I'm Pretty interested. I don't think he would do enough to jump out to me compared to some of the other names you rattled off in this range, but I think he's in play I think if there were a better environment, I'd be okay with it. Um I just don't I don't really know if I want to go at a high a dot guy in a game with massive wind Inefficient quarterbacks stuff like that. Like I think flacco is an upgrade, but like that's not saying a whole lot When I have guys like Rishi rice here is a flowers and the other guys we alluded to earlier on I'm okay missing out. Um, like again, I think that what you said is we should be receptive to considering it That's accurate and that's very fair But I'm also okay If it burns me it burns me because my process is not to target receivers in games with heavy winds With bad quarterback play So I think that the process is there from a volume perspective and for like a Like I agree that you where air yards are valuable, but I also think that It's a really volatile position and I'm okay stepping away from volatility If I think he'll be popular which I would not be shocked if he is popular for this week Zach Wilson is back Brandon. That's exciting. He reclaimed the Jets starting job this week per Robert Sala Uh, brief saw this practice Wednesday with an ankle injury They're at home against the Texans who will have their first game without uh, tank del his season or after his season ending injury RIP to our king tank del Dalton Schultz able to get in a limited session with his hamstring injury so Are you want to check out any Texans now that Zach Wilson is back to give this game more pushback or Is this game still a cross-off to you? I can relate to Zach Wilson because every every week after this show I say Uh, I'm not coming back. You asked me to come back. I said no and then I'm back It's basically everyone knows you're lying because I would never ask you to come back like at least lie about it um Yeah, I don't know. I mean Let's see here. Nico Collins salary 78 I'm not touching outsider receivers against the Jets. I love Noah Brown. I love Nico I hope that they I hope they tank this week so I can use them next week at lower salaries. Thanks too soon What? Don't say tank. It's too soon. Oh, you're right. I'm sorry. That's rough um Yeah, I don't really see who I would go to here You've been more on the Jets guys and I have uh, you've had interest in breeze hall His salary is down to 64 hundred dollars. I think he's a better play with wilson starting than with the other guys uh, shout out touched out trevor and like wilson's more in play too, but like I don't know Wind speed in new york is 10 miles per hour. There's some rain in the forecast there Usually I don't care about rain and if I can use it as an excuse not to touch this game. I might so breeze has At least the 60 snap rate hadn't hasn't hit 70 though, uh, but seven straight games What's it? What's his salary 64? He has a 44 red zone share as well, but like they don't get there. How many? Yeah It's four out of nine chances for the entire year I I think he's similar to Elijah Moore where I see the case for it. I'd consider him But probably doesn't do enough with The tier I'm still learning how to click out of the filter for the games So everything's taken me a little bit longer, which is why I've stalled a couple of times already. Um Yeah with Bijan, I know 700 is a lot, but like we got bijan Well, even like in that range like givante williams is better play than breeze, right? Given the game environment for givante playing indoors like a givante is also pretty inefficient, but like Hall has been too So yeah, if i'm going to use an inefficient back rather go at the guy playing indoors against a I think worse defense and givante williams Yeah, I think my larger point was just going to be We've got a lot of running backs in the consideration set. I don't know if I need to add more to it Right when I talk anyone out of playing breeze hall probably not sure, uh, but I don't think I'd get there I agree with you there The vikings have activated activated jesson jefferson off of ir clearing a path for him to return in week 14 Got in a full practice on wednesday the the rare full by wednesday as well You'll talk about jefferson in the trend section isaac pacheco Miss practice wednesday with a shoulder contusion and he reads that the shoulder is getting checked out But contusion to me makes it seem a bit less serious jerick mckinnon Limited wednesday he's missed out each the previous two games We'll talk about them in the bookmakers section other side of that game The bills open the practice winner for doson knocks who got on a full practice on wednesday another full by wednesday So it means he's probably back this week We'll talk about them in the bookmakers section as well Both kenneth walker the third and zax charbonne took part in a walkthrough for the seahawks on wednesday But neither took part in the actual practice Walker has missed the past two games with a nobleak injury charbonne heard his knee late in the game Against the cowboys other side elijah mitchell didn't practice with a knee injury on wednesday We'll talk about them in the bookmakers section. Derek kar Somehow got in the limited practice wednesday despite suffering concussion week 13 I've had Derek kar in the injury section of the recap podcast like five times this year And he's played every single game somehow He said he's not concerned about his rib injury taste some hill mispractice with injuries to his foot and left hand They're gonna monitor him throughout the week I initially thought he would be an awesome play at seven thousands under the assumption that kar would not play but now Kar may play and he'll may not so If this happens, how would it alter your view of the offense against the panthers for the saints? Yeah, and so I mean They've lost three straight. They're I think technically in third place in the nsc south but very very much within striking distance So that might skew things towards trying to push through so long as you know, everything is good to go um I just don't get how he can clear a concussion protocol in a week Like less than a week again, even though he was just in it over their bite week. I don't know. Um, it's nuts Yeah But either way, I don't care really who the quarterback is. I like chris elave. Um his salary 76 Indoor game He has one game all year with under 20 target share. He gets downfield work I think the bigger question is if there's no taste in hill What do we do with alvin kimera? Yeah, I think that's a good question. Uh kimera is Someone with like a really solid role from a past catching perspective, obviously Salary is nine thousands to between kairan williams and alvin and christian mccafrey And the big downside with kimera is that he loses work inside the red zone But if taste some hill can't go The odds he loses that go down. He could still lose it to mal williams Uh kimera's red zone share since williams came back as 32 but still have 106 yards and scrimmage per game Which is comparable to kairan williams so And he's in a better matchup than kairan as well kairan's on the road against the the ravens whereas kimera's at home against the panthers So I think I'd still prefer williams because I like his role a lot more than I like kimera's but like You could make a defense and make a pitch for putting kimera above him at least I think you could say that for sure Where do you have kimera's adjusted opportunities? In his most relevant sample because on the full season and just everyone's active games. He leads all running backs I don't know 28.2 in each guy's most relevant sample, which is third behind Zach moss at 32 or so I can't at the walk of the third is zach charbonne says That's probably not going to happen. Um, he's at 32 there So it's behind mccaffrey only at 28.8 For kimera zach moss 26.8. I lied there. I was off Okay, either way though Kimera, I don't even know how many times I've played him all season I used my monitor on this year, but I used him last week too But it's a long season as I mentioned, but yeah, I mean this This rushing matchup is pretty phenomenal. Yeah I don't think He's in like an awkward salary range though because if you're not playing kimera and kairin Like there's basically no one between mccaffrey And if you were I mean I'll say like I don't know how how many people are gonna consider etn Like I can say jobs jacos, but What's that not i for etn? Yeah so I don't know He's like in that awkward range where I don't think he'll fit most people's process Unless the optimizers just really like him and then match up and without tason, but I don't think they will I need to bump up kimera I'd probably just prefer him to kairin and I love kairin, but given everything here. I should probably prefer kimera That's probably fair if tason doesn't go you mean correct? Yes. It's clear out the touchdown equity. Yeah I think that's probably fair. Um Maybe I should be higher Maybe it's indoors too. So maybe yeah, I think you could be right about that too The chargers opened the practice window for joshua palmer this week. He was limited on wednesday He missed the past five games of the knee sprain Unclear whether he'll be back this week or not. I'll talk about the chargers Against the broncos defense in the trend section finally diante form and practice in full for the bears on wednesday He missed week 12 and roshan johnson was a lead back head of cleo herbert Personally, I want no part of this backfield until someone separates. What about you? Yeah, with so many guys like it's possible one of them burns us With so many options that that probability goes down But also the probability that you even pick the right one who they would like lean on Goes down. I just don't think Like from a whole lineup standpoint, it makes sense to target one of them Yeah, I very much agree with that and we'll happily miss out if one of them winds up burning me Let's move now into our bookmaker section for week number 14 and begin things with the premier game on the main slate That is between the bills and the cheese total in this game is the highest in the slate at 48 and a half Spread us tighten during the week with the cheese now favored by one and a half I did take the bill's money line when it was plus 118. So Clearly, I do this being a very tight game wind speeds here pretty moderate at Right now seven miles per hour It feels like a very traditional game to stack where we've got good players on both sides I think it's a two quarterback game and we can do some do it with some value plays Is this to you Brandon the clear top game to stack of the week? it is uh You said you think it's a two qb game Which is sad Well, I said I said I think I think sorry. I should emphasize the I I think because I know that you're more skeptical of mahomes But I don't know that's a quarterback game. That's not what I meant. I also think it's a two qb game Okay, but the fact that we even have to sure That's those terms around it because mahomes just hasn't really Been patrick mahomes from a pure production standpoint He's got what one game over 30 fandal points. I guess really one game over 26 fandal points um The touchdowns are like solid but not phenomenal that the the pure yardage output Just isn't there and I think this game For me the conversation around this game not that I would be low on this game if we kind of go away from mahomes But it speaks to the offense to whole Should we just sort of pencil in mahomes to have like a classic mahomes game or is Like 250 and two touchdowns Kind of to be expected They just try to go out and win because this game means a lot to both sides here It means more to the bills, but yeah, you know, maybe maybe it's a little bit Closer to the vests But what are your thoughts on mahomes because I think that really dictates like how we should feel About this game as a whole so he has not been Classic mahomes this year like you said the totals have not been there. You look at his his I've got the player card up on fandal tv plus and fandal youtube like he hasn't had a lot of scorcher games But then that's this column the fantasy points column I also want to draw your eyes to this column the rushing touchdown column where he's had zero the entire season Despite the fact he's averaging his most rushing yards per game for his entire career and most rushing attempts per game for his entire career so he is due for positive regression in terms of rushing touchdowns and Like you said this game matters a lot. So Should we expect mahomes to continue to be underwhelming? Yes, because the supporting staff is not good And the bill's defense has played pretty okay despite the fact that They've lost a lot of key guys. However Is vintage mahomes still within his range of outcomes? I think absolutely yes for that as well So that's why I want to be here. Will he be in my head-to-head lineup against you? No um Will he be in my highest dollar single entry lineup? Probably knocks and leaning lamar there But like he is in the consideration set for me and I will have in my player pool regardless So that's where I'm at on the homes. Alan's the better quarterback in this game Given the chief's injuries on defense, but I think that mahomes is a guy. I am Saying right now.  Not yet, but that's the tipping point where you know that a guy's about to like go off Is if someone asks is they can drop them So ask tell your brother to ask you that just to manifest it for me, please It's just so weird because would it surprise me if he went for like 250 and one or two touchdowns? No, and they won. No, no, what does it surprise me if he goes for like 450 and five also? No, correct um So it's tricky. I have them a little bit more as like a 0.75 qb play because like you said you're not going to go there and like a main lineup really like josh allen more in this particular game, but You know, you can easily make the case uh to pivot to my homes, but josh allen Definitely In the salary is not that huge of a gap. Yeah. Um, don't go to play yourself on this for josh allen josh allen salary nine thousand dollars Do you prefer josh allen or lamar if you've got one tournament lineup this week? I feel like the higher probability of A game that I just adore would be this game Because Of what it means especially to the bills. Yeah They need like they they need this And whenever that happens, we could see josh allen with one of those like Seven or eight carries 50 yards two touchdowns, I mean I want to get to josh allen, but I I probably think I'll settle with lamar fairly often as well But I think those two names are the two qb's That I that I'm considering for my primary lineup. Yeah I don't think anyone else is particularly close So they're in a tier of their own to you because I think I agree Yeah, they're in a tier of their own for me. Although the hardest part honestly And this is a weird saying this for lamar I almost kind of think lamar is easier to stack No, yeah, yeah, I think he is Yeah, it just hasn't historically been the case, but I don't even know if you need to stack josh allen necessarily And with nox potentially back like I think it gets gets muddied. So let me know your thoughts on the pass catchers here Let's talk about why it's tough to stack because I think we both assume now that dos and nox will play here given he was full on wednesday In the games they played with nox, but with concade in the lineup Stefan digs at a 30 target share with a 40 deep target share and 32 inside the red zone Gabe davis with second the team a 15 target share and then dalton concade at 13 percent Now concade's role did get better towards the end of that stint with nox because he had Seven or eight targets and nox is a final healthy game before the wrist injury. So like it was getting better and I think another reason to expect them to kind of go back to that is like you look at They're passing efficiency in two tight end sets They're a 0.25 epa per drop back in two tight end sets according to next gen stats Whereas they're at 0.09 and three receiver sets and their success rate goes up 10 percentage points in two tight end sets passing There are a lot better rushing team with three receivers out there because it spreads the field about stuff like that, but like I think they're going to use nox I think I think they're going to have nox out there quite a bit So that hurts my confidence in davis hurts my confidence in concade. So I agree with you like from the perspective of Alan is tougher to stack than lamar because I think there are three guys. I feel pretty solid about lamar With that said, I will still use Gabe davis pretty heavily Um, I know davis is very frustrating. He's been very good to me. Um, I feel like I've had an okay read on him in general Um, throughout his career and I likened a lot this week. You look at the guys who've done well against the cheese it's a lot of like secondary options, uh, josh palmer had a buck 33 josh palmer had a buck 33 against them davante smith did well against them and the primary guys have been shut down So I'm not saying don't use tiffan diggs. You should use tiffan diggs, but davis and 68 is on my radar once again this week I mentioned before the 15 target and the gains of nox But he also did 35 deep target and scored a lot of touchdowns in those games because he was Yeah, I guess he did not I lied. No, yeah, touched the yellow touchdowns in those games. So Due for regression, maybe but also getting deep work. So I think he sets up well again for this game Yeah, I historically have just well For me gave davis at this point is Game stacks only and this is a game stack that I want. Yeah, so I think the salary is a little higher than it should be but it does You know, it does capture what is upside can be. Um, so I'll have I'll have exposure Would you consider davis in your primary lineup or do you think that there's too much of a risk? I don't care. I don't care about the risk honestly. Um, like In my main lineup I said before that like there's a chance that alan is in my main lineup And if I use alan there is a very high likelihood that davis is the guy stacking with so yes I'd consider him there like I used my main line two weeks ago against the eagles So like I did then no reason not to do it now Yeah, I mean, I'm fine with it I I don't see myself quite getting there But like you pointed out if I'm playing alan I probably should just have a stack Mm-hmm. So in that in that case, I think he's the most stackable. So Oh brother Let's talk about the cheese side of things from the past catching first Travis kelsie 8000 think that's kind of low hasn't had like a ton of blow-up gains recently But the yardage has been there rishi rice 63 Uh, a very nice target totals past two games 10 and nine the past two weeks And that came after a report where they were like We're gonna prioritize giving the ball to our good players and apparently that includes rishi rice not shockingly there So rice's salary is 63 can help offset a lot of the salary tied to My homes or josh alan. So I think rice brandon is in play outside of game stacks Where you got on him and then kelsie as well Yeah, so rishi rice has had just double checking here Single game target shares of 31.3 percent and 30 percent in his past two games I'm fine you know, one of the one of the hardest parts of You know dfs is finding the right samples and thinking about what you can trust You know full seats and stuff is For a lot of players fine, but especially younger players when there's like clear Differentiation points. I'm fine Uh, changing my opinion real quick. Yeah, this team needs a receiver who can do something rice is that I think or at least He's the chief's version of like he can be the number two behind travis kelsie. Um, I think rice is I don't see my favorite receiver play because I really like ze flowers as well But he's in that conversation set as just the top receiver play at salary So we're gonna have a lot of rishi rice and I think I feel pretty safe with it based on how involved he's been How about kelsie? Is he a priority for you at 8,000? he sure is um, he is Second and targets per game First and yards per game at the position Uh, buffalo is kind of like limited downfield passing from an ados standpoint Uh against tight ends, but Does kind of have like a high target per out rate and I'm like we love travis kelsie because he can get downfield work but He gets a bunch of like eight eight yard targets underneath because that's kind of what they're forcing they're trying to play You know play deep and not let my homes burn them with Some tosses to to mvs that Rarely go well, but uh, I think that kelsie, you know The path for him to have just a really I can't I can't say floor anymore ever but Like I have a hard time envisioning kelsie coming away from this game Getting iced out. Yeah, and I think that like The box score looking like what it looks like will keep his roster rate in check It won't be low, but it'll be in check and I think that's a positive for us as well Let's talk about the backfield here, uh, is a pacheco seven thousand dollars I've used him pretty aggressively the past two weeks single game slate for one of them Main slate for the other because jerick mckinnon was out Now mckinnon probably gonna play this week after he got in a limited session on wednesday Pacheco did not practice with a shoulder contusion now shoulder contusion to me is less serious. I I don't like shoulder injuries for running backs in general, but contusion worries me a bit less. So Right now with pacheco at seven thousand I am very on board and If I have josh allen is my quarterback Might have pacheco with rice is my to bring backs that josh allen lineup. Uh, where you got a pacheco at seven thousand Pendant let's assume mckinnon does go So I'm just gonna I'm gonna say if mckinum a disregard your question Um, like I feel like if if mckinnon were out seven thousands a little low for pacheco Very low. I think it's aggressively. He should be 77 without mckinnon Yeah, I know but you always have like a multiplier for pacheco in your head. So With mckinnon without the past two weeks With mckinnon, I think it's fair at worst So I still think that like Yeah A little bit of a downtick and his usage is still justifiable at seven thousand Especially compared To the other backs in that range, you know, we like a lot of them, but none of them are perfect Which is why their salaries are where they are um But you can overcome some of those imperfections by being in such a good game on such a good overall often so Uh, pacheco with mckinnon I would need a little more convincing to have him in like my primary lineup But he's still very much in that conversation and probably would wind up there anyway because I like this game so much Yeah, I think that if mckinnon sits, I prefer pacheco over bijan robinson if pacheco plays then I think Bijan probably has a slight advantage or pacheco and that's an area. Yeah, that's probably like the I think that was the name that jumped into my mind where You know, I have to and zack moss is above him regardless. So that's the other part of this Any james cook for you his red zone role sucks He gets sentinic to a cage basically whenever they get inside the 20 But he gets a lot of yardage and he could score a long touchdown. So I at least have to ask Will you use james cook at all on sunday? Uh, will I use him? probably not But he's I Okay, let's play this game james cook at 66 or Reset 64. Oh cook. I'm not using grace Yeah, I think it's cook or diva or javante Is it cooked or javante? That was the next one because javante since his snaps went up. It's a Five game sample is a 46 red zone share 80.4 yards per game Cook is at 86.6. So like pretty good from that but like not a big enough edge for him So like I'd rather go javante because of the red zone usage Yeah, so I think cook's low enough where Hope you take the tail end of my player pool Yeah, I I'm going in with the assumption that I will not get there and if I do Fine, you know, that is what it is Let's move to our second game where uh, we had the second highest total on the slate That is between the seahawks and the 49ers heavily slanted towards the 49ers as they are 10 and out point favorites Total is 46 and a half putting the 49ers and applied team total at 28 and a half The one concern here is that this is a repeat divisional matchup and they just faced each other a few weeks ago on thanksgiving So does that fact dampen your enthusiasm at all for stacking this game? uh, only a little The same The thing for me and when we talked about that Thanksgiving slate, I just thought that San Francisco was a substantially better team than the the seahawks, which wasn't like a hot take but it was just I didn't think that game was going to be particularly like close It it wasn't uh 31 13 um I think that that could be a similar situation this week where there just doesn't have to be A ton for the 49ers in terms of just constantly pushing it. I think they'd be fine Putting a pretty big nail uh in the seahawks season because they'd be six and seven if they lost, um Would you make them the price in the nfc? Sorry the six seed. I forgot Dallas So I just don't know how this one like I don't think this one stays competitive I just think the 49ers are so good That it really hurts things for me Now any one of their stud players can really like torch us But I think the main thing here is that the spread being as big as it is lowers me on Brock perty and just bumps him out of like The qb consideration set. Yeah And that's nothing against iuk or diva or kiddle or macafery, but if i'm not playing your quarterback. I'm a little bit low I just feel like someone's gonna have a huge game probably two guys have like a really good game But not everyone can and that's the hard part of narrowing it down. So I want to get here. I don't know how to prioritize it. I love macafery But I don't think I need to jam him in because we have so many running back options. So Where are you with uh, san francisco pretty similar to you? I think where so like last week against the eagles that was a game where it was supposed to be back and forth So pretty high in the game stack and as a result. I was okay using two of their studs in the same lineup like diva and macafery Um macafery and iuk stuff like that this week. I won't get there. I can use one per lineup I think like I can have diva in a lineup. I can have macafery. That's totally fine I don't think I can get to two though because of the potential for this game to get out of hand In the past out is said with elijah mitchell being banged up again shocker I'd have been like, okay macafery is now a priority again But jordan mason has looked really good this year. So I don't think that actually changes things too much as far as macafery's projected workload. So I still do like macafery. If you give me three single entry lineups, i'm probably gonna get there in one but if I don't get there like It's the lowest I viewed him in terms of like a prioritization in a bit given the salary is way up there given that I do want to get to a high salary quarterback and tight end stuff like that. I've got a lot of good mid-range running backs So like I want to get there if I have three single entry lineups or like a three entry max tournament But it's not going to like ruin my day if I can't get there necessarily Yeah, I just don't know if the path to I don't know if the path to like 30 plus is required sure for him It's always there Because it's just so good. I just don't know if they'll need it I think it comes down a lot to how you view the seahawks and maybe that's sort of the conversation We should have next because we gotta talk about their offense, but Do you like what does your model say about this game? Do you think says the 49ers should be feared by two touchdowns? Yeah so It's tough and like look san francisco's had a lot of big wins Their their guys can still produce, but it's just hard from a process standpoint to think that that's a high probability and then Look mccaffrey If he gets 25, that's awesome. No one's turning that down, but at 10 5 like That's still kind of You need him to be christian mccaffrey right You know his salary was what it wasn't an In the 9 000 last week 98 because terry kill was 10 000. Yeah, that's right. Yeah If you were 98 it'd be a different conversation. I think I agree So I think he's just kind of almost maxed out and I don't quite need to get there So tell me about the seahawks. What are you thinking? I really like jackson spith and jigba as a salary saver We've alluded to him a couple of times, but the target numbers and the target depth has had been improving recently He's had a deep target and now I think four consecutive games whereas he just was not getting those earlier on this year um He had four in a game where he's had he's had one three straight games. He had four in a game where Gino got hurt But two were from gino two were from drew lock who's a total de gap or so that makes a lot of sense but last week 11 targets a first smith and jigba and Dk mccaff and title lock at both at eight. So I think what we've seen is a phasing out of like the Quaternary options is I did I use that right? Yeah, sweet. So they're they're getting phased out and we're kind of narrowing down to those three guys Which is good for smith and jigba salary still out 55 gonna have to throw a lot in that game So I think that given the trajectory he's shown recently good value play So I'm okay with smith and jigba If both the running backs play, I'm not going to use them if neither running back plays I'm not going to use dj. Dallas even at 4500 dollars because I think he's he's not that good I think one of them will play at least So I'm probably avoiding the backfield I think it's really Just about jsn for me personally. What about for you? Yeah, I never thought we'd see the day where uh, seattle had a true tertiary option But right we have that with jsn and I think he's I think he's the play Uh I don't I don't know if I it's weird that we wouldn't necessarily consider Their top two pass catchers at reasonable salaries. I just I'm kind of I mean dk mech. That's gonna be really popular, right? That's I don't fairly popular coming off a huge game Is thursday people forgotten by now? No, I didn't know I don't know like traditionally. Yes, people do do point chase But also they could point chase with the guy right above him on the team with the higher implied total That's true. Although it's not point chasing because diva is actually a good play this week But you know, yeah, I don't know. I could see like diva and dk being a pretty common pairing but I just don't fear like I don't fear teams going against the 49ers At this point. They're just so good. I don't either Like it's this it's a little dismissive, but Yeah, so I kind of had like a true competitive like back in last week. Oh, I guess not even last week Supposed to be competitive. Uh, was not. I know but like I didn't want to go back to diva for a second. The reason why I think that he's not point chasey is that Looking at the games they've had all those guys healthy and exclude the games where diva was banged up He's now up to 86.2 yards and scrimmage per game in that sample Uh, iuk is at 79.8 in that sample kiddle 56.8 diva's reds and usage is 16 which is much better than both iuk and kiddle So I think when diva is healthy, he's still a dog guy And I also don't like using outside receivers like iuk against teams like seattle given their cornerback quality so I think the diva once again a very good play at 75. Are you on board with diva this week? Assuming you don't have macafer in your lineup Yeah, I mean, I think my default assumption is that I'll take advantage of the mid-range running backs whenever we have them And diva will fit my lineup a lot better He had three carries last week for 22 yards and a touchdown. You mentioned Elijah Mitchell being banged up I think that helps diva as well He's just such a unique skill set and He's very very good. Yeah as well. So I think that diva Frankly, I should be higher even though I think this game doesn't stay competitive The way that games don't get like that. They're no longer competitive is one team has to score some points I think that flows through diva. But um, I think it's diva over iuk for me at this point based on usage and the the Carries and like cool red zone touches he gets I feel I feel good with that But where are you with george kiddle because his salary is very reasonable He could have a big game But I think again, he doesn't necessarily need to have a game for them to just walk away with a safe win So you said his salary is reasonable. I would say it's actually low Um, that's I think that I actually put in that department. Again, I've had a pretty big turnaround on Kiddle personally from where I used to be like it was like, okay if diva and iuk are healthy I'm not gonna get there. Um But like he's been getting a lot more downfield work this year didn't get any last week But that's because there was rainy and they didn't throw deep at all last week But like still at 68 yards in that game. I think that for 66 if I'm not using kelsie I'm not stacking isiah likely with lemar jackson. I'd probably want to get the kiddle So he's probably my tight end three or tight end two this week considering salary. So I'm pretty high on him personally Yeah, I said reasonable Look, he can do a lot with any target Which is what makes him just an elite tight end. But when I see like the target total is being what they are I Have a hard time viewing kiddle was like a And again, I know you don't care about any sort of semblance of safety, but I think this is a pretty high salary For someone who could see four or five six targets in a game that they don't really need to throw in That's kind of where I'm a little bit more hesitant but I would agree with you where I think there's kind of like Three and a half tight end plays who kind of jump out to me even a little bit at most. Yeah Yeah, so kiddles definitely one of them Uh, and if I can get there in my main lineup, I'd be fine with it I don't know if I can quite Justify or get to Kelsey in my main lineup although I'll have to kind of figure that one out because I'm really prioritizing quarterback but um Yeah kiddles in play so it sounds like I started this whole thing saying like I think there's This game's not going to be competitive enough to play everyone but All four they're big, you know, they're big fours in play I just want to be a little bit lower than I typically would be if this were a A more competitive environment and less overlap between the their individual players too than what I would typically be okay with But I'll say like a kiddle jsn game mini game stack is Pretty fun. I would say for this week Let's finish up with our third bookmaker game for this week Which is actually probably the lowest total we've had for a bookmaker game Since we started having this section in The podcast that is the rams at the Ravens The reason it's in here is because the Ravens implied total is actually the next highest in the slate of teams We have not discussed at 24 right now Total this game is 40 and a half at the spread at seven and a half in favor of baltimore Wind speed has come down a bit throughout the week I actually took the over in this game yesterday when it was at 40 and a half and is still there So no blue bit in my favor boo who Still 13 miles per hour still a bit high in terms of wind but not terrible So are you prioritizing of exposure to players in this game? Prioritizing exposure to the ravens. Yes for sure um Like I said, it's between lemar jackson and josh allan for me for my qb1 for the week I feel good enough with lemar Uh to to want to get there his rushing workload has been You know pure lemar levels 11 9 8 10 carries over his pass for for 39 54 41 and 60 he's getting like You about the wisp or something and zero touchdowns Yeah Only has one rushing touchdown in his past eight games. He has 20 rushing attempts in the red zone at that time Let me see Yeah, he should have about He had five red zone or four red zone rushing touchdowns in his first seven carries So like he was due for regression them and now he's due for some positive regression recently Yeah, he should have about two more rushing touchdowns this year than he does have also shout out Uh, you you caught out the mahomes one. I have him at three point nine He should have like almost four rushing touchdowns. So um Based on my my modeling there, but Yeah, so he's uh, he's due let's go Yeah, with the rushing being what it is and then what really really helps out is three Very easy justifications from a game that are just a stacking standpoint for him uh with with zay flowers very reasonable salary odell beckham and then You know, thankfully for us because tight end's not great If you can stack a tight end with your one of the again top two qbs isiah likely 5200 i'm very much on board with that so With all of that in mind I might say like the ravens are my favorite offense of the week because they're so All things considered. Yes. Yeah, like they're just affordable and sure have passed to to big games And I think that you can like go with a raven stack You can bring it back with pukinakua and you can still get exposure to bill's chiefs very easily Like let's just let's just have some fun here. Let's go crazy. Okay, so we got lemar Let's put in odell. I'm going to put likely in there too Um just because it's very low salary.   I have the filter on okay Gabe davis and we'll go pacheco. I'm going to plug in which defense Browns Oh, there are too many uh, there we go. Okay, uh 79 50 left for two for a running back in a flex. So like You can use lemar Double stack him have a bring back and still get exposure to bill's chiefs very easily so like I still might get down on my primary lineup But that's a big key and lemar's favor for a primary lineup is having That much flexibility with the guys you want to stack in with even preference between ze flowers Odell beckham and isiah likely with lemar Uh from in ze I would say for is the easiest one to justify the role's been there. I think he's really good. He can get some creative uh touches as well but Secondarily probably just likely because he's he satisfies the need for a tight end And you know, he was what second and targets on the team without andrew's He's got some yardage upside. We've seen him be good. Yeah without andrew's so You know, he's I don't I wouldn't say he's like a I miss the days of like tray mcbride at like 51 His peak, but I don't think it's quite to that level But given the whole context of the tight end slate this week Likely at 52 definitely jumps out to me and he's the best low salary tight end, correct Yeah, I like another name though, too um Someone gets someone who leads all tight ends and downfield targets on the season more than even travis kelsey He's got nine more than anyone other. Oh, piz. Then travis kelsey. It's kyle piz. That's fine. Yeah, okay I thought I needed to say like doll or david and joker or something and I was gonna yell at you But piz is fine. Um, yeah, I think that I like odell a bit more And like it's not a good process-based thing because odell snaps you look at them for this year. They've been bad Um, he hasn't had big snap rates the entire year I think that some context is important with those though because He has been on the injury report in all but three weeks so far this year In one of the games. He was not in the injury report. He left early with an injury I think he actually left early in two of those. Uh, but in one of them before he left early, he had 116 yards Um, he is not on the injured part at all this week For only the fourth time this year coming out of their bye week Um, he has 2.3 yards per route run this year and a 26 target share on the routes He's run So if we get a healthier version of odell with no mark andrews, I think the upside there is big so I will have odell in non lemar lineups. I think that he's very friendly outside of game stacks Uh, I think that it's kind of on the assumption. He's healthier now is what leads me towards odell beckham Is that too far of a reach for you to kind of say, okay, he's healthy now Therefore I can use him. What are your thoughts on odell 57? I think he's viable, but he's my clear number three. It sounds like you like him more than Do you like him more than likely or is a Well, I'm probably gonna have likely in every lemar lineups like he's not even like a consideration for me I guess in this um, so you like odell more than ze Given respective salaries. I might Uh, it's it's a it's a tough call though. I would say um I think I need to be sold a little bit harder on that just because zay's consistently been Like the guy Again, I'm gonna play odell, but I yeah if I have a lemar Uh, if my main lineup is lemar, I'm gonna I'm gonna play likely In that case, I'm probably more likely to play odell. Um, just to save the max salary But if I don't play likely and I want to like I'm playing a kelsey or kittle Tight end lineup. I think I'd probably just go zay there. Okay. That's fair Let's talk about the bringbacks here on the ram side.  I think I am just because like I think the ravens will be or the rams will be fine in this game And I know where the ball is going and that's primarily the puke nakua and kairan william So and I think the puke of salary is like lower than it should be at 76 So I will bring it back with puke nakua.  Um, where are you out on the ram side of things here? Yeah, puke hasn't had a single game target share under 20% all year His lowest was 20.6 in week 13 Uh, the salaries, you know dropping or like stabilizing Um in in recent weeks He's like caught He's getting banged up. It seems like more and more which is he keeps coming back. It's absurd like Take this guy out for his own health, but like he's gonna keep playing. I'll keep playing him Like he's got that ceiling. I know we don't care about like a floor I think there's a little bit more of a wide range of outcomes for him in this matchup Then I would necessarily want to see at 76 that being said In lamar stacks, I have to bump him up because I'm sort of assuming that this game is is productive on both sides in that case So I'm there with nakua. I have a hard time though, uh sitting here and saying that I would play puke nakua over chris elave or debo samuel I might use him over elave Speak to like this game more That that's fine, but Elave is a monster and he's playing indoors and doesn't matter who their quarterback is he gets Just peppered. So I mean, so does puke She's saying you know I like elave too, but I think the puke is pretty fun. Um I'm just gonna ask this like Any any any interest in keaton michel or no Like by any I mean any any, um The case for michel is that he had a 46 snap rate before their buy. It's a rookie Coming out of a buy week He's been really good to the point where like you you think they'd want to get him more work And he actually does earn targets, which is weird for raven's running back. So I'm currently at a no And I you know, I don't think I'll get there but like I could be talked into it real fast potentially at $5,900 If this were any other team I'd be a little more inclined But they never want to give any running backs more than like a 55 to 60 snap share And you know, if you get a 55 percent snap share for a player this good in this offense at 59 like that's Very reasonable, but that's only up 9 percentage points from where he was before their buy week Yeah, I'm saying like I don't know if that's going to happen and there's an inherent cap on his His role And I would not be surprised if he does everything between the 20s and then they just bring in anybody else so I I don't I don't hate it. I think it's a good call out I have a hard time tying line-ups to someone who could Fog down the rest of my lineup I think that if I had like a josh allen staphon digs travis kelsey line up and I really needed to save salary I would consider it but that'd be like the one scenario which I would get there I think if you're playing mitchell, you don't do it to like have a lot of mid-range plays you do it For that type of lineup He was like kind of what zack moss was last week where you use him to get access to other guys And that's I think that's worth something. He's currently a no in my player pool But a yes on my radar for this week. Let's take it out of the trends across week number 14 You're on top of the bear is running back defense because jamir gives the salaries pretty low at 69 this week Even montgomery revenge game part two is also not that high salary So talk to me about the bearer's defense what we should expect out of them against the lions this week Yeah, a lot of mid-range running backs one team that has two Is the lions usually when you have two running backs for us. You don't have one But this team is kind of operating a little bit differently montgomery's salary of 7600 very reasonable jamir gives 69 very very reasonable as well Last week the lions got up big early on the saints and that kind of skewed things from the trends We've been seeing with both of these guys back and active, but david montgomery played 61 of the snaps had 18 carries and two targets jamir gives his snap rate Was 46 8 carries two targets did have more routes with 14 Compared to montgomery with 11 but in the first half again that game got out of hand pretty quickly Both had a 55.9 snap rate. So I think that's intriguing But now we have four games with david montgomery back after jamir gibbs had his breakout and If you look at that four game sample, it's still favors jamir gibbs pretty heavily 59 snap rate 66 route rate 30 red zone share In terms of carries plus targets for the team montgomery by comparison 41 snap rate 23 percent of the routes On a 32 red zone share So we basically had three games saying gibbs is still the guy and then a blowout game saying that They're going to ride david montgomery a little bit more Especially in the second half because their snaps were the same in the first half But this is also really intriguing because of the bears running back defense They are really good against the rush In a lot of different metrics second in rushing yards over expectation per carry allowed to running backs according to next gen stats Top eight in rushing success rate allowed to running backs third and traditional yards per carry allowed to running backs but Out of the backfield and I I double check this stuff. Some of these things sound kind of kind of crazy, but um, I believe they're all true Based on the the numbers that that I've uh that I have They've allowed 713 receiving yards to running backs No other team has allowed more than 594 They're letting up 1.89 yards per route run to running backs the nfl average for running backs is 1.08 It's basically like a davante smith level yards per route run Uh for running backs against the bears, which is wild They're letting up 0.18 epa per drop back to running backs with the league average being minus 0.1 They're letting up 7.9 yards per attempt to running backs the league average is 5.5 And we kind of saw this play out a little bit in their first matchup You're grimacing so I don't know if you're seeing anything but you know, it always makes me nervous And I'm like going over stuff and you're and you're grimacing But I was searching for I say a pacheco updates and saw a lot of like fan voting for the pro bowl And that's why I grimaced. Sorry. I can't hide my emotions I'm like am I am I do I have everything wrong or something? No, I'm just trying to find info on a guy's injury and all I get is pro bowl voting Why is pro bowl voting done on twitter? Sorry continue In this in the first matchup, uh, which was pretty recent in week 11 jimera gibbs 56 snap rate 57 route rate six targets for 59 yards eight carries 30 of red zone rushes or red zone opportunities overall um David montgomery even did some stuff out of backfield 22 yards on his two targets, but uh 12 carries 76 yards in a touchdown. So like I think they're both somewhat in play I think gibbs Will be easily sort of forgotten about already and This matchup out of the backfield could be very very fruitful For him at a salary of 6900 if he takes back over his Again, he had three weeks where he was the lead back in the committee Then the game script kind of put things on montgomery last week I'm not saying gibbs is On par with some of the other names Because this is a risk that could happen this could have just shifted Signal to shift but again that first half snap rate being equal I kind of think jimera gibbs Could be the featured back in this offense again this week for a sub 7 000 salary That's really appealing to me. Uh, do you have interest in gibbs? Do you have interest in any other lions? What are your thoughts on this one? Gibbs, yes, um, he was actually a player pick for me Until I read more about it as a pecheco's shoulder injury being a contusion So like that talked me into putting pecheco back in there But I had gibbs in there initially. Um, I think he's a really good contribution to that midrange So like as a pivot in that midrange because like like you said, I think people will gloss over him Despite the fact that salary is down despite the fact like he said the bears are terrible against running back Targets so I think that he makes a lot of sense. I'm not going to get to any other lions because Salaries are high. This game is outdoors. Um, the wind has come down quite a bit It's now 10 miles per hour as opposed to I think like 18 earlier on this week. So that's good. So Let's offer this game in general But I think it's still really just gibbs for me, but I'm pretty interested personally I'm not going to get to Montgomery. I don't think but like I can be okay with gibbs for sure Yeah, it's not for the like actual rushing matchup being so difficult. I think I would really really like Place gibbs in a higher Like a higher priority, but yeah, I mean yet he played 58 56 and 70 of the snaps with Montgomery back like yeah And you always have a better read on this kind of stuff than I do Do you think like he has a 60% like snap right like they go back to the role that he had Or do you think it's so more like trends more 50 50 Um Because of what they did last week I would think 50 50 because Montgomery was on the field for like a third and like moderate which was surprising to me I don't know. I didn't like look at the numbers just like watching I know that Montgomery is out there for one where I didn't expect him to be on the field so Past catching may not be as heavily in gibbs's favor as it was before but like I still think like 50 50 is still fine When it's a dynamic player in a good offense So I'm fine with it personally still Let's talk about the other side of that game Because it's also decently attractive again assuming the weather holds where it is right now The line's defense has been rough recently So I think it's at least worth digging into this bear's offense Adjusting fields to see if there's anything we can take advantage of For this week fields has finished seven games this year In those games the bear's average pass rate over expectation is negative 3.9 percent according to NFL faster They were at negative 6.7 percent of tyson vagans So they are more willing to let him chuck it Even if they aren't super pass heavy The one exception though was weirdly against the lions the week 11 their proe there was negative 12.9 percent That could have been because it was fields his first game back off his thumb injury But it was odd and it's especially odd Because the lion's defense ranks 25th against the pass and 7th against the rush so similar to The bear's better against the rush than the pass The bear's did go more pass heavy against the vikings in week 12 And they're similar to Detroit where they're pretty good against the run But regardless it was hard to pin down what the approach might be here But we do know the fields will Push the ball to dj more as much as possible dj more and gains the fields 29 target share cold command is a 20 percent More has a 40 percent deep target share command is a 25 percent red zone target share more salary 777 That's pretty high. Uh, I'm unlikely to get there unless I'm using fields Commet is 56 That's easier to get to outside of game stacks But it also rather spend up for a guy like kiddle or spend down for is a likely No, no commets in the likely tier I think I guess So if the wind stays where it's at right now, I'm receptive to fields plus a pass catcher, but I kind of I can't view them as a priority And I can't get super excited here even if there are some positives So what are your thoughts on the bears in this matchup when you consider a Fields lineup with a gibbs bring back. Uh, what do you view in this game overall? I think they're fine. I think Fields by himself with gibbs Is the most likely exposure I'd get to this game Just sort of playing into fields having a good game the lions throwing it You know having gibbs involved having him breaks and big plays I think they're basically Well, I thought there were five cubies in play I think purdy's probably falling out of that For me the more that I think about it But fields is probably the cubie four Behind josh allen and the mar jackson sort of the 1a 1b then my homes. I agree Then I think it's fields And I don't know how you Consider anyone else honestly That like you don't have to get cued at quarterback. That's not really how how it works And honestly with the The upside of these guys You probably don't want to get cute because we have a lot of Swipes at guys getting like 35 fandal points and it's hard to replace that Even if you get 22 from someone at like 7,000 or 7,200 it's just it's hard to make up those points unless you're You know using that salary to play macafer and he goes for 40 or something like that but for fields It is intriguing He's got 18 and 12 rushing attempts the past two games tons of yardage and as you pointed out with Lamar didn't score neither of those on that amount of carries I don't have the numbers pulled up his expected rushing touchdowns But I can't in a second if excel doesn't crash there's only one this year Justin fields should have 3.7 more rushing touchdowns than he has okay Is overachieving from a passing standpoint, but Even i'm rushing touchdowns. I'll take it. Yeah, so I think he's the qb4 Yeah, so the question is do you get to a fourth quarterback or do you stick with three? I think that's the key question this week because I'm in the same boat as you as far as the ranking of those guys That would depend on how many lineups. Um, if I for me if I'm building like 20 I'd probably want to stick to three Sure I feel good with that because there's a lot of different combinations Again, a lot of game stacks mini stacks that I'm not sold on so that's probably the way that I would go I agree. Okay. Let's move to your second trend. Talk about a fun return with justin jefferson Fully fully back first game frame with joshua dobbs facing the raiders who are leaky leaky leaky So what do you see here with the vikings getting justin jefferson back in the lineup? Yeah, I haven't seen him in a while The return like it's not going to sneak up on anyone But I feel like everyone who comes back from injury is a little bit less popular than they deserve to be But jefferson I think he's ready to be back at this point. He has been practicing since week 10 He's gonna be good to go and and at that rate like He might be the guy like after this I'll probably ask you like alvin chimera or jesson jefferson if you were to flex one just to sort what I think the question is macafer here jefferson even though their salaries not the same. I think that's the question What was the exact salary that's all I thought I was gonna say we're both gonna like lean jefferson I was playing into something. I was just sorry I just got offended even comparing to chimera So if you give him like four full games this year, um He has 11 and a half targets per game 8.3 catches per game for 135.8 yards per game 0.8 touchdowns 30 and a half percent target share 43 percent air yard share 5.8 downfield targets per game, which is for me is at least 10 yards downfield 19 red zone target share the red zone stuff was the only thing like you get to kind of nitpick a little bit Uh, but I'm not going to because he's really good and that that'll go up eventually but 150 159 and 149 yards in his first three games and the his Fourth game where he had just just 85 yards. He scored twice. So It's a beatable matchup Indoors as well The question or like the thing here is like we haven't seen him with the qb downgrade And that's a fair question to sort of ask So looking at dobs, like I didn't really see enough to move away from Jefferson, it's he's got like bad epa numbers because he turns it over time But his success rate numbers are fine and he's been doing that without justin jefferson and like Spoiler alert justin jefferson's a difference maker. So I think the efficiency will probably go up Whenever you're throwing it in his direction but as I mentioned getting a limited practices since uh week 10 and Like that's such a good sign Elite receivers can overcome moderate like quarterback efficiency I don't really see like Anything here to move away I kind of went into this show not even remembering trending this on monday But like Should should jefferson be in our main line-ups I don't know if I'll get there from my like if I have one lineup, but like I'd like to get there if I have two Yeah, like I kind of think that's where I'm at because like He's sick. He's playing indoors in a slate that has a lot of gross low totals and I did take the under in this game so that's worth noting um but Like it is jefferson and dobs like he's at least good enough to support viable pass catchers. Yeah, so I'm into it personally I mean you can like I built a myhomes jefferson lineup like it wasn't with kelsey I just been down for likely at tight end. So it was myhomes rishi rice gave davis I could make it work Given the mid-range running backs. I think that a lamar jefferson lineup is very easy to make so Yeah, I think as like I think like If you're talking like one-offs on I keep saying like if you're talking one-offs on this slate Is he the best One-off like in a game that was in our bookmaker section I don't know how he's not. Yeah I want to I know it's I know it's a downgrade in terms of efficiency and rapport But he's been like he's been practicing. He's been with the team Like that stuff matters. Yeah Although I saw a tweet. I can't remember who tweeted it. Um, it was Josh jobs is getting worse the more that he knows his teammates But That's pretty funny. Yeah. Yeah jefferson I think of i'm taking savings at At running back travis kelsey's very appealing And I love travis kelsey. I think I should probably try to prioritize those savings for justin jefferson though You have one lineup and you're forced to use either macafe or jefferson. Are you going jefferson? Yes, because I have Numerous running backs to choose from sure. Okay, and that's a $1,500 salary gap. I think I agree So let's talk about my second trend here and talk about the bronca's defense They've gotten a lot of buzz recently for their improvements and Look at the full season numbers. They're still pretty poor. So I want to dig in To see if we should target chargers against them this week. It's an indoor game chargers are favored decent implied total So let's dig in. Uh bronca's ranked 27th against the pass and 30th against the rush overall this year They're the only team ranked outside the top 25 in both those categories They have legitimately been better recently though. They've exceeded expectations on early downs against the pass in five consecutive games Three of those were barely better than expected, but like they well exceeded expectations against both the chiefs and uh the bills Against the rush. They've outperformed expectations in that three straight and they've been really getting a late downs again adjusting for matchups I honestly think this gives us an out to be lower on the charge or something I would really like to do because since the josh with palmer injury Justin herbert is at 0.03 passing net expected points per drop back, which is bad League average run 0.07. I think or so this year. I could be wrong in that But like it's been below average regardless They've had only one like really good offensive game since palmer got hurt. Uh, they lost 41 38 to the lions We also saw us nekler snaps dip in wheat 13 He played just 57 of the snaps. Uh, his first time under 66 percent this week seven, which was the second game off the ankle injury The broncos haven't been excelling against the run as long as they've been good against the pass and nekler's salary is low at 75 So I could see him being tempting And I don't think a lot of people will use him I just think the role reduction paired with the improvements for the broncos defense is enough To keep me off key now. He's getting fed 14 plus targets and three to five games palmer has missed He can't torch us, but I'd much rather use jefferson than keen and now and personally So maybe palmer does come back Uh, we can boost the offense because herbert was at 0.24 passing net expected points per drop back In the games with palmer without mike williams Then maybe we can consider the passing game But I think i'm out of nekler I might not touch the offense unless palmer is back Is that too dismissive brandon of an indoor game with a decent total and a tight spread? Uh, I wouldn't say it's too dismissive. I do think that this is As I was talking about at the top of the show kind of find like The game within the slate that has some appeal that isn't as super obvious or has You know enough question marks where I don't think people will really get in This could be that game The chargers are They've been a really problematic offense for me all season. They've frankly have been It always feels like their their output doesn't quite match expectation and like potential um, yeah, so I do think though that this is one of those spots where a mini stack Could be appealing Even a running back running back stack the problem for me with ekkler though is like in addition to everything He's been really inefficient. Yeah, like really really inefficient and he's Not getting enough of like the high leverage work They're not moving the ball quite to the extent that they need to for him just to walk in touchdown So do you have foma with him anymore? Not really. No, neither And we were For a while we were playing him out of fomo and early on this year. I feel like I was playing him out of Preference. Yeah, the things are different now. Again, the efficiency is just really really worrisome And if he's not if he can't break anything which he kind of hasn't been for a while I'm fine missing out Do you envision any mini stacks here because I know you mentioned givante If palmer plays I could go givante with palmer. That might be it though Um, what about worse? Sutton is 72, which is not terrible given his workload. Like he's had a really good target share recently. Um So like I don't think Sutton's out of play I just think that because I like a lot of receivers in the games I want to stack i'm not going to have a lot of one-off wide receivers and I'd rather use my one-off receiver slots on different guys like A one-off in a game that i'm not stacking in that line up. Basically, you know, like a brishee rice or something Yeah, I have Sutton With 5.4 more touchdowns than expectation as well. I think that's kind of just Boosting him up a bit. So sure while I think this game has appeal as like a Game theory differentiation mini stack standpoint. I don't necessarily know if I'm going to get there Okay, I think I agree with you right now unless again palmer plays and I can go givante palmer than maybe Weather for this week a big one is in baltimore for the rams and the ravens right now wind speeds projected at 12 miles per hour There is drizzle in the forecast don't care about that But the wind speed does downgrade this piece of bit still would rank it pretty high But it does downgrade them at least a bit in jackson or in cleveland for the browns and the jaguars right now Rain in the forecast wind speed projected at 10 miles per hour. Which is why The total is so low at 30 and a half. So we talked about that before not being super high there That's part of why Uh in chicago for the alliance and the bears wind speeds right now 11 miles per hour again better than it was still not perfect, but not terrible either for that game in East rutherford for the jets and texans wind speeds there 10 miles per hour with more rain in the forecast for that one as well Check back on the intensity of the rain probably not going to be there regardless though Other games do look pretty okay as far as the main slate goes so check back on the weather for baltimore primarily But then also for chicago in detroit to make sure we're not changing outlook on that one too much Let's dig in now to our positional plays for week number 14 brandon starting off at quarterback. Who are you turning to there? I got two Longest surprise anyone if they've been listening josh allen The chiefs and bills are in the game of the week at least from a quality standpoint Might not be the highest scoring game might be a little bit uglier, but You know, I don't think it's going to work out that way exactly be in part because both teams need wins The bills desperately need a win. They are on the road, but They're coming off of a buy. They should have some answers figured out they should have some Some wrinkles in the offense and if you just compare like josh allen to mahomes in this game I think that You'd have to do some real convincing to say that mahomes is the better play from a process standpoint Of course game theory is one thing, but You know, the the chiefs are a good overall defense They've got a pass defense top six in epa per drop back based on a number fire suggested model But in three games against top eight pass defenses this season allen's at 277 passing yards 2.7 touchdowns Over 20 rushing yards and five carries per game I think everything starts with whether you're playing josh allen and then from there how you save is sort of the question, but With my interest going up drastically on justin jefferson. I think I would really like the savings with lamar jackson at 8,000 You know, again, there are some upside quarterbacks this week if they go off. It's really hard to match that lamar 8,000 very very reasonable salary It's a mid-level overall pass defense. And if you look at sort of lamar versus mid-tier pass defenses 212 yards per game just 0.8 passing touchdowns But really good success rate in this split even with like sub par epa numbers But on the ground 10 carries in these games 61 yards 0.4 touchdowns and again should be Scoring more frequently and the rams are letting up 1.10 yards per carry over expectation Two quarterbacks according to next-gen stats. That's the second highest rate in football Yeah, lamar is pretty fun. I'll talk about him in a second as well But first let's talk about my homes kind of the pitch for him I do prefer allen like he said and I agree with you that allen's a better process play But my homes hasn't blown up recently But I think he's due for some rushing touchdown regression as we discussed No rushing touchdowns yet this year, but is averaging a career high 27.6 yards per game Those defense is fine, but it does get dinged of it once you adjust for schedule So my home's 84 at a spot where I don't think a lot of people will use him I find him pretty attractive. So I want to be on Patrick my homes in Like single entry stuff for this week, especially my second love is also lamar jackson We talked about the rushing touchdown regression But he also could get there via passing touchdown regression because his passing touchdown rate is 3.9% That's his lowest in the season where he's been a full-time starter He was lower his rookie year when he started like half the games for joe flacco But he should have regressed in the passing touchdown department could have regressed in the rushing touchdown department if he doesn't He is lowest in receptionist career So he's playing really well, but it's not translated into fantasy just yet The rams are the 16th ranked overall defense. So I feel like even if the the winds remain at 12 miles per hour I'm probably still going to have lamar jackson as my head to head quarterback this week I want the savings.  So At least there's that right didn't matter Yeah, I think i'm gonna be on lamar Pretty decently this week. I think Especially if people stay away with this total being low that makes them more attractive. So Very into lamar jackson for this week moving to running back. Were you focusing on there? This feels so weird and it feels like maybe i'm Getting too cute, but I don't have anyone in my loves with a salary over 7100 That's not to say I don't like any running backs over 7100, but we have so many options That I think I can get away with it this week, but I like bijan robinson a ton I should probably say that I love him But his role scaled up at recent weeks at least 61 of the snaps in five straight games Over 72 and three of those five including 75 percent in week 13 18 carries five targets 79 scrimmage yards last time out There's a lack of efficiency here for the offense, but not necessarily for bijan It's a middling sort of matchup for the bucking years on the full season and kind of nitpick certain Certain samples and say that they're good or bad or whatever, but overall Not enough to sort of avoid so bijan In this matchup at that salary very much like him Second love is going to be isaia pecheco assuming that things were good to go If not, I have no problem really pivoting to jimmy or gibbs, but there are you know other names that we've mentioned But pecheco You know the role has been up without jerrick mckinnon and the thing is even if mckinnon is back It's not like pecheco's not the guy. This isn't really how that works He'll lose some like leverage, but this salary being what it is and being in this game It's all worth it for for what pecheco's again. You think he should be 7700 um Without mckinnon, but I know that's too low. I get it. It's too low, but But yeah A back with this kind of workload and again might lose some like But I don't know he was still getting some targets and stuff went with mckinnon there. So Uh, pecheco is my second love, but I think like like the third love And maybe this is something we haven't talked about enough, but like exact moss The play of the week again Or is that not quite the case? So I might have him in every lineup again Yeah, and like we didn't talk about that yet. We probably should have toward the top potentially. Yeah It seems like he kind of slipped through Slip through uh make that clear at the one hour and 31 minute mark. I'm going to use exact moss in every lineup this week Yeah, as I was reading over my notes again, I was like But I don't know maybe we're maybe like maybe we're In the minority there. I don't I don't quite know but um, I don't think We will be okay because it'll be an optimizer a lot of this week and like that drives a lot of stuff So well, he disappointed a lot of us last week. He did but that's okay. We forgive him We forgive our son Uh, 94 snap rate 19 carries three targets Under 60 scrimmage yards, but eight red zone rushes Uh, it just could have been great The matchup last week. I did a trend on it. I didn't think there was enough to move away from it that kind of got the better of them Still 94 snap rate at what 50 Like 57 56 something like that. Yeah, take that every time you got to take that. Um, and this week the matchup is drastically easier The bangles are 29th and rushing success rate.  So yeah, I agree Uh, my first love it running back I think I do like these on robinson more But I like the opposing side of that game and our shot white as well at $7400 the falcons rush defense is pretty good But we're going at white for the past catching He's at 14.7 carries and 4.3 targets per game this year He has 98 plus yards and scrimmage in six of the past seven games including the first matchup against the falcons Uh, he had 65 yards on six targets in that game Salary of 74 so I could see a like not intentional but accidental game stack here of bijon with Rashad white very okay with that. I think that both these guys are good. I prefer bijon Uh, but I think that Rashad white is very much in that discussion as well I've got is a pecheco is my second love too as mentioned. I prefer him If mckinnon can't go but I think part of the reason why he's viable regardless is because They've been running the ball more effectively recently and I think I think they're gonna keep on leaning on that a bit more Um, again, it's something he's healthy. He has had some bad games But since the snaps went up, he's also had 158 yards 98 yards 90 yards so I want to monitor the injury report both for him and mckinnon, but 7000 for pecheco is reasonable for him if even if mckinnon does play Like if mckinnon does play maybe I go with Rashad white and bijon and zak mas above him and he gets outside my top three, but He'd still be a consideration for that top three regardless Let's talk about zak mas elite role in the games his lead back 21.6 carries and 2.6 targets per game as the lead back Even with last week concluding still at 114.8 yards from scrimmage per game in that sample as well With a 60 red zone share he's been kairan williams for 6800 dollars Against the bangles sure sign me up So i'm gonna have him in every lineup again this week. It's gonna do it. I don't care. So there you go Uh, one more name in this range You'll probably just say no and want to move on but joe mixon 72. Nope move on Uh receiver what you doing there?  I don't dislike him. I dislike using him Okay Well, actually there are reasons to dislike him too. I forgot about that, but yeah, sure Uh, I had okay, so I had chris olave. I was thinking of going to debo for my number one I love both of those guys But I don't know how I'll walk away from this not putting justin jefferson here You can vote a lineup. We talked about like I mean really three names at running back that we really really love a couple more pivots that are in play Uh, especially if you go down to like javonte and put him in that tier I don't know how you like walk away from this and not talk about uh, justin jefferson as a love I mentioned almost 140 yards per game when he was healthy um three touchdowns in uh those You know, he didn't have a touchdown in his first two games, but I had like It was like one I closed the tab already, but uh 150 like 149 148 yards like it is crazy You just got to play him at the salary It's very reasonable and you can play him with lamar with all the value we have so I'm playing jesson jefferson. Uh, just spoiler alert. I think I'll have jefferson And lamar in my head to head against you. I think that's like sort of one of the best starts you can have Uh for this week second love is a flowers another reason to like lamar, but 6500 in this matchup um I think it's a really really easy uh case to be made For uh zeh and and the first game without mark andrews. He pays the team eight targets At a rushing score, which you love to see Two targets at least 10 yards downfield. He's just sort of like he's been the team's top option in terms of wide receiver That's not going anywhere. We usually want roles to expand when injuries happen, but I don't quite think that he needs that um, so I think that uh With with the rams allowing some downfield passing as well Zeh just really stands out to me and then my third love is rashi rice Again, I mentioned this already, but uh over 30 in game target shares over the past two games I'm fully willing to buy in on on roll shifts, especially for young players as the season progresses He's got yardage upside um eight catches in each of those contests I don't necessarily overall love the The matchup against the bills, but in this game, uh, you know rice is going to be involved and for 6300 He's very likely to be in my main lineup as well I agree that in large part because I want to stack that game I also want to stack uh rams ravens, which is why pukin akua is my first level wide receiver Really good bring back option for lemar teams. He has a 28 target share If you look just since cooper cuts return He has 33 the deep targets and 25 inside the red zone They got him creative touches last week had a really wrong long rush got called back as a whole But like it was really fun to watch. He kept getting destroyed but kept on coming back I don't know how but this dude is made out of like titanium apparently And they're gonna throw a lot in this game. So sour for puka. It's reasonable at $7600. So I want to be in pukin akua for sure this week My second love is also rashi rice. Uh, the targets have gone up as my home's gotten more comfortable with him It's 24 percent since the buy Uh, which is actually above travis kelsey in that time and that includes a game before they said, okay We're gonna get the ball to our good player. So trying to make his shares look worse. He still looks pretty good He finally got his first hundred yard game two weeks ago. He's got the good red zone role that he's had all year He's $6300 for access to a great game. So I want to do that whatever I can So rashi rice at $6300 tremendous play this week We haven't had a lot of low sour receivers to love so far this year But we do get that this week both with jackson smith and jigba But also with odell beckham the third or with odell beckham jr. At $5700 beckham has been banged up all year This would be just the fourth game where he has not been on the injured port the entire season again He had 116 yards in one of those games seven targets and another He's at 2.3 yards per route run this year with a 26 target share on the rats. He's run as well And the salary is low So I can stack Lamar jackson with a very good pass catcher who may get a better role this week than he's had in the past He's healthier now Maybe have isael likely in the mix too and have a lot of salary to burn for the other slots in my roster I think that makes a lot of sense. So Beckham has not had a great year by any means the yard Just hasn't always been there hasn't shown a lot of upside But I think if the snaps go up which they could this week We could see beckham have a really solid game for a lot of sours odell beckham 5700 a guy will happily turn to you in week 14 Love love the uh target per route rate shout out there He's just behind justin jefferson and chris elave in that department. Oh didn't know that I mean there there are guys above them, but like that's just context. Oh interesting. I'll take that for sure Okay, tight end. What you going with there? uh travis kelsey, um, I'm already as in building lineups Having a hard time getting there because i'm prioritizing like justin jefferson now but I'm going to go out of my way, especially when i'm Building josh alan lineups to get kelsey in there because it's going to be it's going to force me to be a little bit Uh different just in the fact of the way that I need to build the rest of the lineup with some Really taken advantage of the value at it running back in receiver, but very easy to justify Leads all tight ends in yards per game with almost 75 I already mentioned this but like buffalo kind of limits Downfield passing to tight ends or second and a dot allowed, but they just they're 23rd in target per route rate allowed to tight ends so That'll probably change in terms of defensive scheme But I do like that metric because I think it kind of tells what teams allow and what teams sort of take against Certain certain defenses. So kelsey at 8 000 the upsides there Um, he just rates out really well in terms of the the floor ceiling projections that I run second love Is it more of a pivot? I like guys say I likely more because i'm just likely to like likely to stack his quarterback, but Kyle pits, I think shouldn't get forgotten about Salaries 5300 he's had a really really good role this season No tight ends have more downfield targets than pits who has 35 kelsey's at 33 and then next up is uh At 26 I can't remember who it is but He's got minus 55.1 receiving yards over expectation on those downfield looks and yes That's partially because the offense he plays in but it also indicates room for growth Tampa Bay's not good against tight ends. I think you could do way worse on a Tight end slate where we have like three guys Yeah, pits being the fourth makes a lot of sense to me So if you want to get away from Isaiah likely is like the obvious value tight end Look into pits a little bit more Yeah, and he's another route to game stack with shot white. So I think that's fine. I think the pits Pits is fine. My first love at tight end is also Travis kelsey salary for him is pretty reasonable at 8 000 He scored only once in the past five games. We know that kelsey has like Multi touchdown potential. He's had 91 and 81 yards the past two games So he should be able to get or we should be able to get here because we got a lot of mid-range running backs low salaried receivers we like And again, it's great access to a game where I'll be using my homes using josh allen. So I want to be on Travis kelsey for this week My second love is Isaiah likely you alluded to only 40 yards in week 12 without mark andrews But he was second on the team with six targets. He helps reduce the effective salary of Lamar Jackson They have a high implied total. I'm going to be stacking here and do you pair both odell and likely with lamar? It just gives you a lot of salary flexibility. So I do like as a likely quite a bit this week defense, what's going with there? The browns 30 last week for the rams was uh, joe flacco this week the notice uj bethard Yeah, and if not like a very immobilized trevor lorence with no left tackle and no christian kerb Also, the saints they're like 42 or 43 Maybe the colts, but I think the browns are the obvious plan. I don't want to get too cute I think the bangles are in play at 37 because that game could feature a lot of um plays So that's good for defense. Um I don't hate the raiders at 37 against the vikings because joshua dobbs can have some turnover issues So you sure can I don't think that's the worst idea So you can save at defense this week. Uh the chargers against ross I mean, I used the texans last weekend's ross and that was fine Not super enthused about touching that defense, but I wasn't super enthused about the texans defense either So, you know, I think there are routes this week to spend down at defense for sure My love is also the browns at 38. I'm okay with them if lorence plays Just prefer it if it's bethard instead Any final thoughts for you brandon before we close up shop for week number 14 I think we really covered this one. Uh, we finally got the zakmoss at the 90 minute mark. Um Yeah, it's uh I still don't I don't know if I feel any better about like the non-obvious games this week I think what I really what I really learned was that I want to play a lot of jefferson Yeah, I think that is a fair takeaway to come away with to me It's stack those good games get jefferson is a one-off you can do that this week So please do so because it is wise as always That's all we got here for today back with you once again monday to recap all the action and key takeaways That'll be up on the fandal youtube page live at 10 a.m. Eastern and then up on Fandal tv plus and the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed after that So go subscribe to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast branded People have questions for you on twitter or threads Where can they find you there because you're on threads now bullying works Yeah, that might be privates though because oh people tried to hack my instagram over davont Adams takes, but I'm on twitter at kudula 13. I'm on there all the time always tweet and Always do it boy. Yeah tweet boy at kudula 13 I am on twitter at jim saunas on threads at jim dot saunas You can find fandal research on twitter at fandal research want to thank you all for tuning in for today Good luck to you with your lineups. We'll talk to you once again monday and to wrap it all up This has been the heat check fantasy podcast right here on the fan dual podcast network