Yes Okay, hi there everyone. This is Jessica Hagman again at Aldum Library and today we have a live video interview with Carmen B. Croft and Stacy Lavender who are going to tell us about an exhibit and collection that they have been working with similar the exhibit will be called Civil War Stories and Next week they're going to talk about launching a digital archive of Civil War materials So they're going to tell you all about that and some of the amazing materials in this collection And we hope will be able to join us next week. So can we just start with introductions first? So maybe you could tell us I think you've both been on our videos before but for anyone who's missed them Could you introduce yourselves and say what you do in the library? Sure. My name is Carmen B. Croft. I'm a digital projects librarian I work in digital initiatives. I image I oversee the imaging of Unique and rare materials from the Monsenter for archives and special collections, which is where Stacy works and Then I describe them and then I put them online Yeah, and I'm Stacy Lavender. I'm our special collections librarian for our manuscripts collections. So I Those basically are the collections that are not rare books and they're not university archives So they're archival collections that are not specifically related to the university. So it runs a really broad gamut of Topics a lot of southeastern Ohio related materials, which is what we're going to be talking about today But basically I just curate those collections oversee their preservation needs and promote their use and make people aware of them. So could you just tell us a little bit about what sort of materials are in the Civil War correspondence collection? Yeah, so it's Eventually it'll be materials from about 16 15 or 16 different manuscript collections It's largely Civil War correspondence so letters that people wrote to each other during the war But we also have a little bit. We have several diaries Like these a lot of soldiers kept little diaries while they were a waste. We have a handful of those And some other military documents. This is a you probably can't see it But it's like a volunteer enrollment list where people signed up to join the fight So we have some military documents. We have some medical documents a couple of the collections are people that were Doctors during the war or nurses during the war So we have some medical related stuff in there, too So it's a pretty a pretty broad range of things that are in the collections and it totals I think about a thousand ish items online now. We have almost 500 letters Oh So whose stories or what kind of stories are we going to find if we start looking into these collections? a lot of different stories, so The collection that's already online the Brown family collection and it's a family writing back and forth to each other So you have two sons that are away fighting in the war They're writing home to their mother who is also writing back and forth back and forth to her brothers and sisters and other places spread out through Ohio and Where is still water? So writing to family far away writing about You know raising children and illness and traveling in that time period So you get a lot of aspects of rural Ohio life along with stories of the war As I mentioned we have people that were serving as doctors. So you get Some stories about battle injuries. We have people that were prisoners of war. So their stories about being held captive Also people writing back and forth to their loves We have some pretty dramatic Relationships represented in this class romantic relationships. Some people split up over this So yeah, I don't think there's a lot of different stories that are really personal and really engaging I think will help people connect with something that was so long ago Knowing that people are experiencing the same kind of feelings that we experienced today So interesting it's very personal stories right these aren't like You know the stories of great leaders that we might have heard of out of the civil war It's very much just everyday people. So What do you feel like people well? We can take away having looked at those personal stories and these kind of materials in the archives But what what can we learn research wise like what how my people use these collections? So I'll start from the big picture and then get a bit more More personal as it were so When we think of history where we're talking about Like an infinite number of data points that are both recorded and unremarked on they're observed in Unobserved and then history is the stories we tell About those things that happened So we need to keep going back to primary source documents to retell reinterpret and reimagine those stories over time as more data points are added to that gigantic corpus By looking at history from the bottom up We can see the impact of these monolithic events as we learn about it in school These monolithic events that we learn about in school on ordinary people how they adapted to and interacted with them and how they Reinforced or rejected these stories And finally, you know, most of us aren't famous leaders and authors. It's easier to relate to people that don't have a ton of power To shape their own destinies who are just trying to do the best they can in desperate situation It's really about making history seem personal. So who do you see using this collection either here or outside of the university? Well, I'm hoping you'll see a lot of news fire students I'm hoping we can get it into some classroom use Especially since these materials are going to be available online now. I mean people can access them at home Professors could access them, you know in the classroom without me having to bring physical materials somewhere or them to come to me So I'm hoping for that. I'm also hoping anyone who's interested in this award people in the community I think you know, there's a lot of Areas of interest for people, so I'm hoping as many people as possible So see mentioned things are online. So how do you like get to these things online? And like, how do we search them? I mean, especially since 500 things, that's a pretty big collection. How do we kind of find out what we want to see through there? So to access the digital archive, you can go straight from the library's homepage There is a tile that says digital archives That would give you a list of all of the collections that we have our collection is called civil war correspondence Clicking on that link will take you to the landing page These items are fully transcribed. So it's about 350,000 words We did preserve misspellings and alternate spellings But this will allow you to do keyboard searching within the letters. You can also search by facets So the author and recipients are all available to be searched by as well as the place where the letter was written So, um, can you I've seen you both kind of was you're tweeting about kind of discovering these Stories and from the Alden look digital account I've even kind of talking a little bit about the stories that you've seen here. Can you tell us about I'm gonna have materials here Can you tell us anything about those interesting stories you came across or what kind of? Just a little bit of an introduction to what you found Yeah, yeah, I'll tell you about something really cool that happened to me this week So as I mentioned the Brown family collection are the letters that we digitized first And it's a collection of about five hundred almost 500 letters Of the Browns writing back and forth to each other And so we have all these materials about these people and Carmen I think both have read all these letters at this point So we feel like they really know all the Browns, but there's no pictures anywhere of any of them until this week I was picking up An envelope it has Edwin who is one of the sons who fought in the war who is like one of my favorites in the Brown family He has his discharge papers and a little envelope and I picked it up in this teeny tiny if you won't be able to see it On the camera, I'm sure but this teeny tiny little picture of him fell out of the envelope But I'd never seen him before so it was like getting to see somebody I'd like known just you know Virtually but not in real life But I feel like I do so we digitize that picture of Carmen did yesterday So you'll be able to see Edwin in the exhibit that we have opening next week Which we haven't mentioned yet, but we have an exhibit with some of these materials opening on Monday And his little picture and perhaps a slightly blown-up version of the little picture will be in the exhibit for people to see us So that was a really exciting discovery for both of us. We scan that photo at a thousand pixels per inch So hopefully we'll be able to show you a little bit more of his expression Then you can see in this like one and a half inch by one inch Ten types snip.  Basically. Yeah, basically Yeah, very small So what about so this is a diary? Yeah, this is Edwin's diary. Oh, we have two of them that he kept during the war and They're really interesting They can be really difficult to read because Edwin was less literate than some of the other Letters that we have in the collection. I transcribe those I can attest to that I really wished when I was working on it that he would spell things wrong the same way twice, right? It's much easier if you just Speak aloud what you're seeing on the page. He spelled phonetically and he spelled with a little bit of an accent so Yeah, you're talking it makes a lot more sense than what you're looking at on the page So that's that process that so you said you're like so you're looking after it's been scanned Do you kind of look at the document? You're reading it to yourself and then transcribing it as your okay? Yeah letter by letter when possible Some stuff is just illegible We did the best we could okay. We've done several iterations at this point and We've gone over it with multiple people in order to pull out as much as we can And so you have students probably working on this to write a lot of students working in the digital Yes, we currently have a student doing like a final quality control Run through of all of the letters that are currently online to remove Character encoding artifacts so where things suddenly turn into question marks when you move them from one program to another and also to to Apply her own discretion in in some of the words that are unintelligible So I've seen you tweeting about a lot of your research like into the Brown family So what kind of other things did you do is that did you like go look at other materials besides what we have here? Or like what did you do to do that? So I used our the library's institutional newspaper archive accounts in order to search for more information about Specifically their deaths because there were four children in the family three of them died in their 20s van died The earliest use 21 he died of smallpox during the war And then two of the other children the only daughter and the youngest son died very close to each other Unknown illnesses and we didn't know what happened to them So I looked up their obituaries. Luckily their uncle used to own the Athens messenger. So yeah, yeah, so Their their stories were perhaps better reflected in print than other people in Athens County Okay, but so speaking of Nelson Van Voorhees and the Athens messenger He is very Integral to the story of one of the people that we'll be highlighting in the exhibit who is not going to be part of the digital collection But it's very important to the Civil War in Athens County and how we remember the war His name is Milton Holland. He was born a slave in Texas. His father was his owner When he was 11 years old his father sent him north to Albany which is also in Athens County he Works for Nelson Van Voorhees When war broke out because he was 16 and he was too young to serve as a soldier And when he turned 18 he returned to Athens and raised a company of 149 other African-American young men at the Athens County fairgrounds and they became company C of the fifth United States Colored infantry, I think it was yeah And they went on to Milton went on to win the Congressional Medal of Honor He was promoted on the battlefield to captain and then demoted because of his race and While he was serving in the war He was writing letters to Nelson who then published them in the Athens messenger And so we have a very good idea of what he was experiencing as he was experiencing it because of that relationship I saw your your tweet about his mother's yeah, right. Yeah, like I found several sources When I was doing research on him that says mom is unidentified. She was a slave. We can't find any information on her She's buried right next to his brother with our mother Matilda Holland and So I corrected the Wikipedia page Got a little digital information when I see an action there, so I love this like idea that you're You're not only just making these materials online, but you're also adding to our knowledge about these ideas Like I don't think I mean as someone who's not an archivist or works in digital collections It's probably not something I would have thought of is see the work You know the immense amount of work that goes into making this accessible to people and as much Giving as much information as possible so people can do their research How long have you been working on this? It's been what like your months and many months. I'm sure it was Yeah, when we first started working here is digital projects librarians identified as one of the priorities for us to get started on because The letters were rights as you three they were in the public domain And because the format was conducive to the scanning equipment that we have it was easier to put the letters on a flatbed Scanning try to photograph a bound volume. Okay, so we've been working on this about a year. Yeah, that was last August Planning scanning describing and then building the digital collection and Injustice and adding these items to it You had said that Edwin was your favorite brown. Can you tell me why that? Yeah, I mean, I don't know I to me he comes across as the The sweetest of the grounds letters.  I think he has a hard time in the work He doesn't like being there He's one of the ones that has a really dramatic Relationship with his fiancee That spoiler alert it does not work out and she I don't like her so it makes me like Even more. I don't know. I just I think you read, you know, 200 letters by somebody and you kind of develop Either you love them or you hate them, but the other that I think Yeah, that was definitely my experience as well. There's some people that we complained about a lot. Yeah I think you at one point you told me that they they talked a lot about health. Yeah, oh my gosh Health details are amazing. Especially one person. Her name was Jane She was Elmira Brown to like the main focus of the Brown family collections Sister and she talks a lot about the digestive problems of her immediate family and The horrific broken leg of her son and lots of detail. Yeah. Yeah Yeah, the amount of information I know about people's foul habits from the 1860s now is really shocking There's not something you think about. Yeah Like I said that means that like you could even from like a health public health for not public health But a health perspective like what is medicine and like discussions of health look like at that time Yes This is another item that will be in the exhibit And we will be photographing the covers and some of the other salient details of this book with published by the collection But this is hospital sketches by Louisa May Alcott She wrote little women. I'm sure you're probably familiar with that She actually served as a volunteer nurse for six weeks during the Civil War She contracted typhoid fever and was treated with mercury which affected her for the rest of her life But the protagonist of hospital sketches is named tribulation periwinkle Which I yeah, which is a which is a detail that I think is Particularly interesting Fun fact Okay, so I so just as you're talking about these kind of personal Did you find that you ever thought about like how this is maybe similar or different to how we communicate now And like I keep seeing the shades of like you can't believe I can believe what that person posted on Facebook in a same We're like I can't believe what that person wrote in the letter like obviously it's different But do you feel like there are any kind of yeah To kind of how we communicate no, especially how letters were passed on after they got to the initial recipient There's a lot of letters in the collection where somebody says Please don't read this out loud because that was often how everybody would gather around the letter would be read out loud It's like the person was in the room a lot of them use that language So they would say please don't read this out loud. Don't give this to so-and-so or burn this letter Yeah, there's a lot of just destroy this after you read it. There's one Very creative example in the collection where a person wrote a letter in ink Then turn the letter upside down and wrote in pencil between the lines a secret message and then said just erase the pencil marks And they did kind of so I was able to like reconstruct some of what she wrote It's mostly just complaining about this person that she doesn't like who's living with them. But yeah, all sorts of petty secrets and Gossip and Obviously people didn't bring their letters. They did pass them on and that's how we have them today Do you think there's any any obvious things missing like can you see any reference to like a letter that you just wasn't in the collection? Or do you feel like they were they're the type that really saved everything I think there's tons and tons That's missing. Yeah, especially since because the mail service was so I'm spotty and hard to do with the Civil War going on So I mean you'll have you know Edwin for example saying, you know It's been six months and I haven't gotten a letter that that's probably long But like two or three months and I haven't gotten a letter from you guys and you know Almyra's at home writing every week And you know she'll say I've sent you ten letters and why haven't you gotten me? So I know that there a lot was getting lost in translation that way I would imagine Just based on the volume of letters that the letters that made it they probably mostly kept Would be my gut feeling but I mean yeah, there's definitely gaps and if somebody did burn a letter we obviously don't yeah That's true. I wouldn't even know that we don't have it, right? Yeah So you've got an exhibit that you're putting up later this week, right? And then you have an event coming up next week. So could you tell us about those? Yeah, so the exhibit will be up on the fifth floor of Alden Library From September 18th to December 15th 2017 It's a whole room. Yeah, so we have a selection of letters from the digital collection And we're terming that side of the room the living the war Experience and then we have the remembering the war experience where we're drawing on these rare books from also from the Monsenter collections and this The the juxtaposition of living and remembering and how we remember what remember, you know what stories? get passed on and and who were what gets forgotten is is Very important to The research process and becoming a scholar and a historian and it's also in the news right now And the event is on Next Tuesday the 19th at 2 p.m. It'll be on the fourth floor of all And so at that event we'll talk a little bit about the collection And then we're also going to have some live readings of some of the letters from the Brown family So hopefully people can get a real feel for how personal and dramatic and interesting These letters are getting to hear some of them out of loud And then after that we're going to have an activity where people can write their own Civil War era letters We'll have some stationery from the period and fountain pens and ceiling wax and so I think it's going to be a lot of fun so we will have Student actors and professors from the theater department reading these letters out loud so you'll get a very dramatic And an interpretation of these events hopefully yes, and we just think it's going to be a lot of fun All right, so I guess one last thing before we go What would you say is your favorite or most interesting item or kind of thing that you encounter? I feel like I'm putting on the spot a little bit because it's 500 things But if you can think of just one thing that you would say people just have to see is most exciting or interesting I'm just going to keep talking getting more and more time to say wow So I'm not sure if everybody knows this but Paul Lawrence Dunbar who is the poet who is very famous for his poem We Wear the Mask Was born in Ohio? His parents were both born slaves his father escaped from slavery after the Emancipation Proclamation and became a soldier in the Union Army and so Paul was born 20 years after the war ended but he keeps coming back again and again to the sacrifice of black troops during the war and This particular item is a Collaboration that he did with one of the most famous commercial artists of the day Margaret Armstrong whom you will see in the publishers binding collection and The Hampton Institute Camera Club, so they're poems that are all illustrated with stage photography and he Has this beautiful beautifully Staged poem about Soldiers marching off to war and so it's going to be really interesting to To delve into this story a bit more and show both the anachronisms like for example in this famous photo This guy's wearing loafers and his uniform and also to to discuss the reasons that Dunbar used the writing style that he did and how even in a very white dominated Publishing industry. He was able to be subversive in some manner There's so many stories You can spend like your whole life just writing research. You're doing research. Yeah, you're absolutely good. Fortunately, we Yeah, yeah, we have two jobs, but all right. I say your turn.  It's the William McKnight collection and he was another Soldier that fought and he and his wife wrote back and forth to each other while he was away And they from the letters that they're just were clearly very much in love They're really romantic letters and they really miss each other a lot and he ended up being killed in battle And so I found there's a poem that he had written for her This you know really sweet like not particularly, you know well written poem But like the the idea is just so so sweet And it was apparently found on his body when he died And it looks like there's like blood stains on it and when I found it in the in the back that I was reading it And I realized what it was there was a little note with it I said found with this body it actually made me cry, which you know, it doesn't happen to me every day Okay, but so that that was a procedurally I think moving moment for me with these materials Wow that is amazing Like this is a personal. Yeah, that's not a word, but the of that story that yeah, the intimacy and like yeah, that's It was really yeah, I'm really moving Wow Okay, well on that note We hope that you will join us for the event next week Tuesday at 2 on the fourth floor or when you get a chance Come visit the exhibit on the fifth floor or take a look at the materials that are available online If you have any questions, of course, you can always put them on Facebook or you can We'll pass them on to Stacy and Carmen who of course know the most about this collection But thank you so much for watching and we will talk to you soon


Former Ivory Coast President Laren Babo plans to return home on June 17. This comes after he was acquitted on charges of crimes against humanity at the International Criminal Court. The ICC confirmed in March that Babo and Charles Blair-Godd were in the clare over the post-electral violence that rocked the West African nation in 2010 and 2011. He had spent years behind bars in the Dutch city and waited in Brussels for the decision of a 2019 appeal. Alison Watara stated at a Cabinet meeting that Babo's travel expenses would be covered by the government and that steps will be made to guarantee that Babo obtains the pecs and allowances afforded to past presidents.


e a recommendation on the amended resolution, correct Motion was made first. We've amended it. So we need we need a motion to pass the amended before going forward So technically there's no question to be called So motion been made in second to pass as amended or to recommend passage as amended more in about Any discussion on that's All right, thank you Say this to me again The question was called to vote on whether or not we have a referendum or the question is called Whether or not we accept Alderman Boren's amendment. Okay, technically the question was called. However because we have never Had a motion to pass as amended There was no question to be called so now born and back have now made in second in the motion To recommend to counsel the passage of as amended And if someone like to call a question may do so at this point in time, but there has been no question called right now If someone calls the question again, we need someone to call a question if that's the answer otherwise Is there we're still in a call a question? Motion's been made to call the question is there a second to call the question At this time when we vote to call the question which what we're right voting on right now is to end input and debate On this question so everyone's clear. We're not voting on to pass the resolution with the recommendation yet We're just voting to end discussion all fear that motion say aye. Hi opposed All right, we'll do a roll call Call the question. This is the call the question to end the debate Moran. Hi Oh, hi hours. Hi, Decker. No No No No Kittleson says no my to me or no radkey. Hi Rindflash, no van der wheel. Hi Versey up staying Anwangeman, I Seven knows six yeses one extension Motion to call the question has failed. Okay this point in time The chair would ask that the fire department's has had heard of the commentary this evening And the question is whether or not we're going to put this on the ballots if the fire department has some input They'd like to add this time Thank You mr. Chairman. I too do not want to sit here another two and a half hours as the rest of you do There's been a lot of good points made I've been given Numbers at the same time that you were tonight Obviously did not have time to research them I do have a couple of questions on the green sheet From miss you Rainer it's got a number of $29,700 for donated equipment lease value I'm not familiar with what that is there was a $50,000 estimate of Supervision cost and I think Alderman Hanna did bring this up I Guess I'm wondering is that you're understanding that that is transferred then out of the fire department budget and into the ambulance I guess I'd like to know if that that is a question or the answer to that Also nor in it. I think it was touched upon but The amount in the fire department budget that comes out of my budget and is transferred into the general fund And I think that was related to as just paper But it is a deficit to the fire department budget and I do Agree with mr. Maples on the the actual hole in the 2009 budget. I think that his figures are are Fairly accurate The marginal cost issues I think we can debate this and we have debated this for months and years on How the costs are allocated for the ambulance? Unless somebody can show me that there's costs that are not in the fire department budget and not in the ambulance budget that are An expense to the ambulance system I guess I don't understand the argument because if it's in the fire department department budget It will come out of there and go into the ambulance and it's it's the net result of the city is the same You know I ran some figures on If we cost Expensed out all 18 paramedics And the expenses to the ambulance system. It's roughly I think about 1.4 1.5 million dollars If you subtract the eight or nine hundred thousand dollars I'm projecting it a little bit higher next year of revenue. It is a deficit of about eight hundred thousand dollars But again that comes out of the fire department budget my question is If you decide that we're not in the ambulance business anymore, and we take those 18 paramedics away from the fire department What do you have left? And I think that is the decision that this body needs to make Because that it's in your power to decide policy and fire department level police department level Department of Public Works level So I think that the public needs to know that I think you need to understand that that with When you take bodies away from the fire department stations will close Services will drop. There's there's no other way around it. I think we saw the public Outcry when we closed station five Just for a couple of months. I Spent the better part of the last two months traveling around the state Researching on the internet calling fire chiefs calling city managers looking at other systems To compare us to just the on Monday Alderman Bowers mentioned that the city of Oshkosh is looking at getting out of the ambulance business That's exactly what you said no well Okay You know I would recommend that we go up there and talk to them or take a trip with With a couple officials and talk to them to see what their reasons are for looking at getting out of the business Once again, this is a decision that the council needs to make as to what level of fire protection that you want The ambulance in my opinion is funding part of your fire protection right now if you take away just those four firefighters That are funded in the ambulance budget a station closes so there is a reduction in fire and public safety Protection just by reducing those those four people I believe miss a home made a comment in her statement that The only reason we took this one was to add employees and I guess I would ask how many employees Did we have in the fire department prior to taking on the ambulance service 78? How many do we have today? Is it 78? What do we have then we have 73 when we took it on right now? We have 69 soon to be 73 in a week although I would Wouldn't be surprised if I get a call from four gentlemen who decide not to quit their jobs in the next week and come here So once again, it's decisions that this council needs to make you need to educate the public whether it's through listening sessions, but make no doubt that Changes that are made from the system that we have now will have an effect on The delivery of public safety To the community and I think the one thing that was not mentioned tonight. That's very important is Aurora Memorial Hospital and St. Nick's have both stated that the system the medical delivery system is better with the Sheboygan fire department in it This the head of the state EMS has said the same thing And I think that's something that's something very important that those three entities have said that The delivery of emergency medical services in the city of Sheboygan is better with a Sheboygan fire department has a part of it There aren't any questions Lovin Bowers you're up. Yeah, I think it's five minutes or up And I'd also category denied that I said I talked with people in Oshkosh They had no recommendations one more the other and I talked to the president of the council Now you say that I talked to them and they were looking at privatization No, they're not right that Alderman Bowers. I didn't say that on Monday I asked you if there were any other cities looking at getting out of the ambulance business and you inform me that You had knowledge at Oshkosh was I talked to them, but they're not I didn't say that Okay, all right. Good. I said you straight or not. I said, thank you because that saves me another trip As for five minutes sees a department head So I'm not a member of the public that motion was not made to limit to five minutes So I did let them speak all in a long time. You're up Chief just one question, please Are you against a referendum? Are you against letting asking the people what they think of this because this is the question at hand We're getting way off the question again the question at hand They shall we have a referendum and my question to you sir is are you against a referendum? I would say as somebody who has stood up here since 2002 talking about this very issue Thinking about that that I'm not opposed to a referendum, but I Would caution you that I hope this is not an easier way out for this body right here Because I believe that this is what you were elected to do if you are choosing this avenue as an easy way out for you When With regardless of which way it goes if the if the vote comes out to say no we want the ambulance in the fire department and the people that know me well know that I'm a Pretty fiscally conservative You don't have to worry about that with me as chief, but I would hope that It's not viewed as okay the public voted this the ambulance is in the fire department. It's a blank check But that's one of the Possible Outcomes of that and the other is if the public is up in arms that as a result of that of not being in the ambulance business We close one fire station. We close two fire stations. We close three whatever it turns out to be I Would hope that this body then does not say well we washed our hands of it the public voted That's what they got so I guess I have a fear that it's an easy way out for this body But am I afraid of a referendum? Absolutely not I've always said let's listen to the people speak All the head. Yeah, I just wanted to reiterate that As many people possible as part of the education process is critical the information's got to get out You know, I encourage groups on both sides of the equation to get out And I know you'll be Appreciate that Alvin board. Thank you, mr. Chairman Chief in defense of what the citizen said I have a copy here of the letter that you wrote in the summer of 2007 in that magazine and I want to quote a paragraph there We are currently two firefighters short and have lost four in the last two years and Had the real possibility of losing four to nine more in the next two years due to budget for Shortfalls that would have caused us to likely close the station under this proposal Meaning getting into the ambulance business We will add four firefighters next year and have a staffing guarantee for the next five years This is key. There is still a real possibility that orange cross will fold And we will take over the entire area. We would then look to add an additional 12 firefighters Now if that doesn't say that this wasn't driven by increasing your staff when you said it yourself in this article in the union magazine I don't know what is if you want to comment on that's fine, but that's what you said And first of all it was written for a union magazine. It was edited after it left my hands We have not added any more staff other than the four In fact the council guarantee of staffing for five years was not held up. So Yeah, I wrote that letter And it said it I don't have I don't have to go over it again It said you're hoping that orange cross falls and that that's going to mean an additional 12 firefighters I don't know if I wrote in there that I was hoping they were full They would fold but in the event that we had to take over a larger service area That's a possibility that we would have had to add staff. That's correct Would I have that same viewpoint after being in the system for two and a half years? Probably not I'll never see sorry can't hold my tongue on this one Got a correct a statement you made that you just spoke with the stadiums director Which is dr. Martins and she stated that it's been better since the fire department has taken over I know that it's not made that mr. Brian. Let's go. No, Dr. Martins is a stadiums director And she's also I may have most miss spoke on the title. I'm sorry I'll about thank you, mr. President. I Echo Alderman Hannah's concerns about this is a very complicated issue and putting it out to the people it may devolve into this popularity contest worthy of a high school prom, you know election and Because it's very complicated people who are very good with numbers can disagree with people who are very good with numbers And so again, I have concerns about putting this out to the populace Not because I don't want them to have their say but because it's a very complex issue And I'm afraid it's going to turn into who spends the most money and who turn who makes who the worst guy And are the worst people and then that other side will win in a popularity contest So again could be unintended consequences all the first month we are Thank You chairman Previously when we have the ambulance and with the police department there was a referendum in November of 88 and two-to-one margin in favor of city ambulance service And even though they knew at the time it was going to cost them huge amounts of money to train the police Because they were definitely not paramedics or just barely EMT's The citizens then still said yes, so I think there is a Sometimes the public just wants it the way it was And I don't want to make it that simple but to get the public Educated to the real Possibilities that might happen is going to be very difficult. It is not a simple issue. It is very complicated and remember when We did have orange cross and we worked at the county We paid for that. It wasn't free. We paid for that Finally toward the end we did not have to pay but when it first started we paid for that and Before orange cross was hired There were a couple of other ambulances that we paid to come to the city One of them just left another one intended to be here But on the last day that they needed a certification from a local doctor the doctor Renigden said I will not do that and that's how we came to have orange cross and We did have to pay a lot now. I would guess we probably will again because Orange cross will know we need them. We have no out if this is binding I'd have another question for a The way the question is written It says in favor of a private ambulance service doing to add non-profit So it's that we're not precluding companies like orange cross that we are including them in the victim process Or does private mean non-government? Yeah, that question for you The term private would that preclude non-profit Ambulance services we need to add that so that the nonprofits can bid as well I'm sorry. I'm clean. We're televised. I need to use the mics again. People could interpret it different ways. I suppose Private if you want to say non-governmental I suppose you could do that But every time you put a word in there, it's gonna have some sort of effect that you may not totally want the I Don't know if I can take a second to address Something Alderman and a Montemire said my recollection on orange cross was I Think when I first got here in 85 and 86 the county subsidized orange cross But when the city Drop the police ambulance and we contracted out we went for bids Curtis ambulance was the winning bidder at the time and I believe they They may have been paying us something But they didn't they didn't fly either they they couldn't cut it and I believe the latest two orange cross contracts The most recent one was a joint contract with us and the county with orange cross and I don't believe there was any subsidization And You know we didn't subsidize them and they didn't they didn't make any payments to the city again getting back to the Text of your referendum question if it's going to be mandatory You're gonna have to be very careful on each particular word if you want to make an advisory I'm not saying yes or no. That's up to you, but you'd have a little more leeway and If you made an advisory and you didn't abide by the voters wishes They vote you out at the next election, but then at least you'd know the will of the people perhaps and Could take that into consideration in some of your financial factoring but again, I'm not here to Argue one way or the other but just to make you aware of Thank you all of ours Yes, it changed the wording and make it nonprofit. You're eliminating a Lot of ambience. I'm not saying it'll change it all the way I'm saying are we precluding nonprofits from bidding right now? Well, add them as well because we're private We have what nonprofit. No, what do we have private private private that would include everybody wasn't it? Well, that's my question. Does private not mean nonprofit as well I want to make sure that the nonprofits have a chance as well as long as we get everybody because I have you want broad based Yeah, because I have talked not with the people in charge, but people with different evidence services And they said it's an interesting situation now these people had nothing to Say about the bids themselves, but they said it's interesting and they're out of town Ambulance services now the next question is that we go to buy three. Why don't we just Instead of postponing it Let's let's say it's a bitey referendum and get on with it and let the people decide Thank you, Alden Hennett Yeah, at this point in terms of there's some we'll have another kick at the cat the full council We've got some words that we all need to do some homework on So I would call the question at this second most of the maid to call the question this point in time the question Upon calling would be as amended because I question is All favor calling the question say aye. Aye chair votes. I opposed Motion court carries questions been called So the motion to be made and second to pass the resolution as amended With a favorable recommendation to the full council all favor that motion say aye. Aye chair votes. I opposed Stain Foreign aye Bowers aye Decker aye Hanna aye Heidemann aye Cough aye Kittleson says no Montemay or says no Radke. Aye Grinfleisch Vander wheel aye verse versey abstain Wangerman aye Love and eyes to nose and one Motion carries for a motion to adjourn Thank you. Second All here say aye


Thank you, good afternoon everybody. It's a great pleasure to be here in Dublin. As you said I'm going to talk about the case of monetary finance... ...or money finance. I usually spend my time at the moment promoting my book, so I'll wait the book around... ...that'll encourage you subliminally, it is subliminally to read the book. It came out last October. It's called Between Mortaire and The Devil. ac rwy'n meddwl i'r Rhannig o'r llyfrnod y Chynig, a mae hi'n edrych o'r llyfrnod ddweud â'r llyfrnod. Mae hi'n meddwl i'r llyfrnod o'r llyfrnod o'r llyfrnod o'r llyfrnod i'r Chynig, mae hwn yn olygu'r llyfrnod gwybodaeth yn y Llyfrgell Gwymau Arna. Yn y llyfrnod o'r llyfrnod ychydig, rwy'n meddwl i'w gweld ychydig o'u gyn nhw, yw rwy'n meddwl y 2008 cyfrifiadau i'r llyfrnod, ac fydd rwy'n cael y bydd y rechydig y pethau rwyf yn maen nhon a'n cyfifarcast. Rwy, 8 yr gyrs yma, byddwn i weithio gysylltiad o griffau ei wneud yn gweithio'r gweld, i wneud rwy'n cyfbrydol i'u gynhyrchu, i bwysigio'r profi, i gwneud o dechrau i'r newidau yn Gwbwyll Gwlad Oesas, why its January this year update of its world economic outlook was entitled Subdued demand and diminished prospect. So the book is about what is going on and it ends with part five saying that what are we going to do to get out of the situation that we're in. And it is in that part five that I made the case that we must consider the o'r ffinanthau meddwl. Rwy'n nhw'n gwybod o'r ffinanthau, ac mae'n rhan i'r ddweud o'r tebwio bobl ar y cyfnod o'r ffinanthau. Mae'n ddweud o'r ffinanthau meddwl o'r ddechrau'r ffinanthau, fel y dyma oherwydd'r wyf, fel y dyma oherwydd'r ymddangos, fel ydy'r cyfnod, o'r ddweud o'r ddweud o'r ddweud o'r ffynanthau. Mae'n oed yn ynddo, ac mae'n oed yn wirio eich bod felly mae'n gwybod o'r bwysig o'i eu ffynan â'r cysylltu a'r ddweud o'r ffynan. Rwy'n meddwl, i ddim yn ddiddordeb yn y ffynan ymlaen, yn fy modd mewn cyfweld i'r FFIA, ar y Ddweud Ymddangol Rheswm Yn Ymdweud, ar y Llyfr Gwysig, oherwydd ymddangol yn y FFIA. A'r ysgrifenni ar hyn, rydyn ni'n gwybod yw'r gweithio'r i'r gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio'r Llyfr Gwysig, ond gallwch chi'n gweithio heilio gyda'r unig o'r dweud yma. Ac os yw'n rhaid i'w ddechrau'n ffiyth am yr hyn newydd. Ond, dyma'r ddechrau, ddim oedd wedi bod yn cyfweld i'r bwysig o'r cyffredin, o bwysig o'r cyffredin i'r blaen. Dwi'n cael ei wneud i'r llwy ffair ac yw'r bwysig o'r cwysig o'r cyffredin i'r blaen, ynghylch ar y dyfodol yma hwn yn ymlaen nhw, ac mae'n gwybod ymddydd ychydig ymddydd ychydig ymdyn nhw, a ydych chi'n meddwl chi'n ei wneud y ffordd o ffynatru. Felly, rwyf i chi'n rai i'n mynd i'n arfer, rwyf i'n ffact yma, ychydig yma ychydig ychydig ymdyn nhw ym 2008 rhai-d currents. Mae'r companywyd o'r mae'r companywyd o'r Prifwyr yn dechrau'r Credit eisiau ddyniaeth canfodol a'r mwyaf atioedd a'r Rhys Gwll-Mwyaf a�on ni'n dim er mwyn nad yw'r companywyd phenomenonol, mae'r companywyd i'w cyfaint dda eich rhai-d considerably a'r companywyd am y cyfrifod nawr yw yn ddifol sydd yn dfosent yn wneud wedi'i gynnig o hysg-d awardedd arfer sy'r companywyd yn dweud i gyd-dodedd yn ymgyrch yn 50% i 170% yn 2007. Yn ymwysig, yw'r dros ymgyrch yn ymgyrch yn 50% i 2007, a beth yn ymgyrch yn ymgyrch yn 1090. Ymgol yma yma yr ymgyrch yn gredithol yma diddyn nhw wedi'i ddweud yr ysgolwyr mae cyfleu yr ysgolwch yn astudu'r gweithio'r cyflwyno, a sydd yn gweithio', a'u cyflwyno'r cyflwyno'n gweithio'r gweithio. Mae'r gweithio'r gweithio'n dyfu byddai real eisteddy. Felly mae'r hwn o'r fullfynu'n ddysgu'r Penedigol i'r Rhys Themol nad yw eich ddweudóol ddod oes sydd hefyd gan Scolwyr Alun, Oskar Yorda, Morys Shulwric. Mae'r ddim yn gweithio'r ddod o'r llippau gyrstech oedd yng Nghymru. Mae'r gwrth o gwneudio'r cyllid o'r sytó o'r system cyflogu i'r cyfrannu ihmairyn meddwl, o'r bwrdd y gwaith yn 17 mae'n i'n 17, a yna'n gofio'r sefflŷ defyn oherwydd mae sydd wedi'i awr. Felly, rwy'n meddwl y byddwch yn blod y swyddfa yn awr 20 yma. Gwyddiad a newyddau pan fyddraig gyfordd, sydd o'n pethau sydd gweithio'n bwrdd y byddwch yn gweithio. y dyfodol, mae ar 1870-1960 ydych yn ddechrau ar y dda yn llun yn ddiddordeb. Mae ddiddordeb 2007 wedi'u meddwl 60%. Mae'r flinigiaeth gwahanol y ddiddordeb yn ddiddordeb yn ddiddordeb yn ddiddordeb yn ddiddordeb, ond mae'r flinigiaeth yn ddiddordeb yn ddiddordeb yn ysgriffaith yn Arlen yn 2008. Mae'r flinigiaeth yn ddiddordeb yn ddiddordeb yn ddiddordeb yn amdano i ddiddordeb ar gael gweithfynol yma'r awgfyrdau yw'r gweithio. Yn y gallu pethau, mae'r gwaith ymlaen, er fydd yn gweithio'r awgfyrdau arall a gael gweld y awgfyrdau a'r awgfyrdau arall yw hefyd yn ymlaen i'r defnyddur. A'r awgfyrddau yn ymlaen i'r defnyddur yn ymlaen i'r defnyddur oedd y gweithio'r awgfyrdau yn y ffyrddau ymlaen i'r defnyddur, Rydym wedi gael cyfraeg adroddau'r cyflaenau ac mae'r prydynigfau cywir yn gweithio ddaliad, mae'r prydynigfau ar ddiw iawn yn ddiwrd ar y cyflaenau ac mae'r prydynigfau ar y cyflaenau oedd ein cyflaenau. Mae'r ddigwydd i'r ddaliad ei fwyaf o'r arfod.  Rwy'n gweithio'n bwysig wahanol surfol yw eu cyfrifiadau a'r trafodaeth sefydlog yn eu rhan o'r tyniad, sy'n ymddangos a'r eich credu o'r cyfrifiadau a'r ddaeth yn y rhan o gyrry. Yn y tro cyfrifiadau ap chi'n wych yn armeinydd yma, a'r gyrfaith yma yn hawdd iawn. The situation is where the debt doesn't go away, it simply moves around the economy, and where it appears that all our classic levers to stimulate aggregate nominal demand are blocked, imperfect, or have adverse side effects. What do I mean by the debt doesn't go away, simply moves around? Let me illustrate what I mean by reference to Japan. Japan in the 1980 has one of the biggest credit in real estate we've ever seen. Bank lending against real estate goes up defined now to your half times in five or six years. Real estate prices in central Togo, central Osaka go up by four times in five or six years. Then there's a crack of confidence on the real estate prices come down by 70% or so. What you then have is a whole load of companies Ac mae'n amliwysoedd yn nifer y gyd-enill, ond mae'n meddyliadau, ac yn meddyliadau sy'n meddyl yn meddyl yn ymgyrchu'r hyn sy'n meddyliadau yn Casasio, rwy'r edrych yn achievedur P3.  Ac yna efallai efallai bod yn gŷanodau ar y ffordd o atgwyd i'r afraith, i ni'n hoffi iwi gyd o bwyr i niwn brodd er mwyn ochr iawn, ond mae'r cyflodwch wedi cyflodwch yma, ac wedyn ydych chi'n gynnwys 25 yng nghymru Adonysau.  Fy ydych chi'n ymgylch yn y cyfrifysgfa i'r gwrslydd ymenig, ac nes ydi'r dros 2019 y bydd hwn o'r cyfrifysgaf sinol, ac yn ydych chi'n gyfrifysgfa'r gwrdd pleidig o'r gwrdd yn eriyd. Mae gwrdd o'r gwrdd yn ymgylch yn ymgylch, a fydd yn gwirio mewn ddechrau. Gwrdd, y j然后m yn ran cyfrifysgfa o ran ychydig o'r cyfrifysgfa sy'n duethaf i gyfrifysgfa'r gwrdd hwn. Mae'n mynd i'r cyfrifysgfa wedi amgueddion Not just two decades of very slow growth and slow deflation, but a real 1930 style Great Depression. So they were useful. But they have an inevitable consequence that public debt as a percent of GDP goes up. And if we switch from this chart which is flows to the next chart which is stocked, the stock of debt as a percent of GDP, you can see that the story of Japan for the last 25 years is that there has been a long, slow, steady de-leveraging of the private sector offset by a more-than offsetting increase in the debt of the public sector, which has gone from about 50% of GDP to about 250% of GDP and is still rising. The debt hasn't gone away, it has simply moved around the economy. ac mae'r pattern yn ystod o'r cyfnodau sydd wedi'i gweithio'r cyfnodau sydd 2008. Felly, mae'r cyfnodau sydd ymlaen i'r cyfnodau, y gallwn y dyfodol yn ystod o'r 50-year run-up o'r 50-year o'r 50-year o'r 170-year o'r 50-year o'r 100-year o'r 170-year o'r 1r. O wel y cyfnodau sydd… … amweithio yn deithas Sirgaryangol dros gyfer Hem hednig, yn r Bandfodol Cyfnodau a Shwerlwn Iredaeth, yn yr oed pan fawr i ni'r ch KEI- tonnes i diwrnodau οbat cynhyn equipped, yma os y ddechreuadau Youtube ac ond ac i ddim ekipu i gymfloweru i sabi cyfnodau amrawwn. Is ble hima caiss i holl y rool y decidel chromא gan thanysgafyddio. Ych yna'r flwyddyn ar draws. Yn ymateb gyda eu bodai gweithio siogel yng Nghymru Cymru, bydd y cyfnodol ac yn gwneud y bryd yma yn eich cyfrifnwyr ym Mhwyl Chart Ysgol. Yn ymlaen, mae hwnna'n ddefnyddio ar gyfer y gyrthoedd ac yn gbyn. Cymru digon hwnna'n ddefnyddio am ymlaen ni yn fwy o'r bwrdd yn oed. Yna'n gweithio ddusun dd derived yn cysylltu a'r ddigon o'r ddometai what deleveraging, because at the level of all debt together there has be no deleveraging. What kindly has also been though is a very significant shift. At least may be there has been a slight slowdown. There has been an additional take off of debt in emerging markets. The most dramatic of those is China where Chinese debt during GDP primarily corporate has gone up from 140% of GDP to 240% of GDP. And, again, that increase in Chinese debt isn't just coincidental. It isn't just that the advanced economies had a financial crisis and quite by chance, at the same time, the Chinese economy decided to increase its leverage. The one caused the other. The Chinese authorities in early 2009 were terrified that deleveraging by U.S. households in particular was going to drive a falling demand for Chinese exports a dyna'r unig o'r rhan o'r cwmwylo'i dynol yn Chynyddu. O'r rhan o'r ysgol, rhaid o'r ddihaf yn ddigon o'r ffath o'r unig o'r ffath o'r rhan o'r rhan o'r gweithio'r ffath o'r hollu. Ond mae'n fwy o'r gweithio'n gweithio, mae'n dweud o'r diwedd y ffath o'r ddechrau, mae'r ddechrau nid oed o'r gweithio eich cyfnod o'r economiai. A os ydych chi'n meddwl, mewn gwirdd o ysgol yma, yw hwn o'r cyflaenol cyflaenol ymddangos. Y cyflaenol cyflaenol yw fynd i'ch bod i'ch i'ch gwaith jopannu yn ymdweud y ffondiol ynchos ffondiol ffondol, mae'r ffondiol yn y ffondiol ffondiol sy'n ei ddweud y llun yw'r ffondiol. Yn y gweithio ymateb ar y bydd y CRISYs ar 2008, rydych yn ymddangos bod yna yn gweithio. Felly, yn ym April 2009, yn Llywbeth, y G20 yw'r gwneud o'r wyg ydych chi'n gofyn yn y ffobl y gweld yma yma yw'r economiynau i'w gwneud y ffinshwymiol yn ddiolchio'r cyfnodau drwy'r cyfnodau yw'r cyfnodau yma. Dyma hwn i ddweud am y ffordd yma yw'r ymellaf oherwydd dyma'r eu cyfnodau yn ddigwysig o'r economiynau. Ond ydych yn fawr, mae'n ymlaen i ddweud o'r wneud o'r cyfnodau yn ddweud o'r cyfnodau. rydych chi'n ei wneud o'r ysgrifennu cyfnodd yng nghymru yn y ffordd yng Nghymru yw'r lŷ, clwyddoedd yn agrwyngau am y llwyll yng Nghymru. A dyma yw'r ffordd yng Nghymru wedi'i gael ei gwneud i chi— dyma'r hyn o'r hyn o'r ffysgol ardennig, dyma'r hyn o'r ffysgol argym ni, mae'n rhaid i'r llyfrgellfa ar y llyfrgellfa ar y cynnwys. Felly, receiving the public sector continues to blow up its debt under control and pay that as the private sector is still also unrhyw dillegynau, so you can drive the economy into a deeper recession. Unless, that is, you believe that you can fix it by ultra-loose monetary policy. The conventional wisdom of the last five years has been that governments can take tighter fiscal stance, but central banks can fully offset that with ultra-loose monetary policy, o'r ddigustfawr drwy'i mai ddwydd, oedd yn negatifu, ac mae'n gofynnwch gwawndol iawn i'ch gydag y croisiad a gweithio mewn fawr i'r gweithio. Mae'r drwy'u gan'r iawnon eich bod yn nhw yn gwneud, ac mae'n ddweud y gwirionedd Gwilor Os edrych o'i bydd gilydd i gyf EQ a'r ddweud o'r ddigustfawr drwy'i gweithwyr yn dweud o'r Dau UK. Ond mae'n ddweud yn nhw yn nhw yn gwneud, Mae'r mecaniad hynny yn ychydig i'r eu gweithio eriaeth o'r bobl fod yr irthegi'r ardeil. Gwell, efally gweithio ym semnach yma yn sgwrs, ym blaeniechau gweld yn eich heb gweithio, i wneud i'r thymian polon i'r oedwch yn ei ddweud. Wrth gyda grannig yr scrill Cwwy, ac o'r Cwwy esgwrs, mae'r oedwch i'r Cyngor Cymru hynny tynu i'r Undi-Ylder i gael soedd o bydd o unedol gwahbwysig, yn gallu dyfodol o bobl DIDD mewn aod a'r swyddfa gael yn perthynas y nifer gwahanol a'i fydd yn ei fyddus' i'w wertau. Mae ymddwys i'n ddod i ni'n wneud dweud. Rydyn ni'n i'n ddod i gael y gallu awm o'r ffantffordi. Felly, allwn eich gwahanol yn anod y bydd yn credu i gael unrhywbh. Rydyn ni'n credu i gael achor yw y pros Faster. i'w oeddi'r lle. Mae'r bobl bun, mae'r bobl bun yn bach. Mae'r bobl bun yn bach. Mae'r bobl bun yn bach. Mae'n fyddiol ychydig i'r economi ac mae'r rhai o'r effekt i gweithio'r gilydd anhygoel ac mae'r bwysig ar y cwrdd i'w wneud am y cwrdd mwyaf oherwydd mae hi'w creu ffyrdd i'ch gwedd i'w ffyrdd oherwydd mae'n gweithio'r ffyrdd o'r sydd yn bach. Mae'n dweud oherwydd, yw dweud o'r cymdeithasol o gyllideb yn llyfr o'r cyflawn i'r ddweud. Yn amlwg, ychyn nhw'n gweithio'r ddweud o Kerudasarn i Japan o'r Mary o Draghi, mae'n gwybod yn ffocwsio'n gweithio'r polisi lwyddo'r ddweud o'r ddweud o'r ddweud o'r ysgol o'r Yn o'r Eur. Ond yna, mae'n gwneud o'r ddweud o'r ddweud o'r ddweud o'r ddweud o'r sefydliadau, mae hynny'n oed yn ysgrifennu. NYIt is a tool which can be used to help one country which has a debt overhang problem escape from it, but the world cannot escape a global debt overhang by devaluing its currency against those of other planets. And if the Japanese government manages to bring down the yen, the Japanese Central Bank manages to bring down the yen, that is then immediately a problem for Korea, for China, for the eurozone, ac ydy godwch i'n mynd i'r ddoedd y euro o'ch credu'r enw'r problem i'r U.S. Rydyn ni'n meddylion i'r eithaf sy'n hyn am y cwylgu, am yw'r hynny ychydig newidol. Rydych chi'n meddwl berthynas i'r meddwl siaradau gwyrdd a gwahod yn ffrydd ydych i'r ysguedd bydd y byddai bulladau i gweithio, maen nhw'n meddadu y bydd hopeth yn y brwynt. All yr Lyfriau yn ychydig o ddech chi'n gwneud rhai ymgyrchol a chw sellataeth wedi'u gwneud ar gael, ..  Large enough to make a significant difference to the leverage of the whole economy.. ..without that itself being disruptive and depressive effect on the economy. Or we just stay forever with large debts made affordable with ultra or low interest rates. Those are low interest rates for people creating incentives.. felly weithio ydy i'w ddweud y dechrau. Rydyn ni wedi bod yn ymdeg ar gyfer phobl mor eich ffordd o'r amunisi. Mae'r ffrwng ymdeg yn ymdeg yn ymdeg yn ymdeg â'r awr. Mae'r bankau cyfnodd yn ysgrifennu lleddau i'ch gael, rydyn ni'n credu bod ni'n ddweud a chyfnodd iawn. Mae'r gwahau, rydych chi'n gweld ymdeg, nad yna'n siaradau yn ymddeg, i ddod o'r hyn ar hyn o'r cymdeilydd yn ymddangos. Felly, o'r cwestiynau bod willig ymddangos yn part 5 o'r llygau, is that if our problem is inadequate nominal demand, if that is the problem it might not be the whole problem but if the problem is inadequate nominal demand, then central banks and governments together never, ever run out of ammunition. On oedd y gallu gweld o'r problemau sy'n oed yn cael eu defnyddio yn y economiei, ond dyfodd yn gael gan gweithio, byddwch chi'n ddweud bod yn gweithio'r ddau sydd gennych gweithio a'r cyfnwysig yn ddweud. Ond mae'r ddweud sy'n gweithio'r ddweud, mae'n gweld yn ei ffordd i'r rhan o'r cyfnod. Yn oed yn ddweud, rwy'n gweithio'r ddweud, rwy'n gweithio'r ddweud cyfnod gweithio'r rhan o'r ddweud, Ionwch, ond dyna'n gweithio'n gweld i'n meddwl i'r cym�in.  Mae'r�lygededau ar gyfer y cyflen o'r rai cyflen o'r rai ddweud, a'i ddweud o'r argynnu'r iawn ffysgol. ..a miliwn oeddaeth gyda'r ddau ddau cyfnodol.. ..y'r ddau yn ymddangos yn ymddangos o'r ddau cyfnodol.. ..y ddweud y ffysgol yn y policy. Yn 1948, Milton Friedman ddim yn y cyfnodol.. ..y cyfnodol ymlaenau hefyd yn ymddangos. Mae'r ddau cyfnodol yn y system.. ..yna'r ddau cyfnodol yn ymdill yn ei ddau'r ddau.. ..y gweithio'r ddau'r ddau'r ddau.. ..y gweithio'r ddau'r ddau. Mae'r ddiwrnod yma yw'r dysgu wedi'i gweithio'r barhau o'r dweud o'r defnyddio'r ddefnyddio. Dyma'r ddau'r ddiwrnod yma yn ymgyrchu'r ddiwyddoedd yn ymgyrch yn gweithio'r ddiwyddoedd yn y ddysgu. Rwy'n meddwl, mae'r ddiwrnod yma'r ddiwyddoedd yma yw'r ddiwyddoedd yn gweithio'r ddiwyddoedd. Felly mae'n Jeremy Corbyn, mae'n Milton Friedman. Mae'n meddwl i'i gweithio'r ddiwyddoedd Ben Bernanke yn 2003, rhan o'r gweithio ar gyfer y txud o ddegyfrwyd rhan o'i cyfnodol yma, yn hyn sy'n dod i'r gweithio cael hwnnw i golffyr ac ystafell yn gallu atbygomau o'r cyfrifysgau, o'r gweithio gyda bytwn amlun gan PGOG. A wnaeth y txud yn bwysig yn bawb o ran o'r gweithio chi'w ffarnad. understands fel hynny mwy o bwysig yr afeid efallai diwethaf. Ychydig i chi'n gwybod. Ion i ei fyrdd oherwydd hynny, Unws unwyr i gwleidio ein gwin fel thirty-fwcaethau. O'n gweithio a gwleidio gweithio gwleidio fel three-fwcaethau o ffrindio'r gwleidio. Rwyf cael ei angen i gyda'r ei gwedd yn rhywbeth eich parwch, uhlion ddeigwad y chr�siau gyda iaith o ddefnyddio gyda'r cerddiff y bydd y Gweithreinikau. Gweithreinikau hynny o'r byd o erdwyddiol i gafodig, whysbeth y bydd trwy'r byd o'r cyfeisiant, ac rhaid i'r cwmhreit o gyfnodd iawn mlygol yn sylwgr yn ffachod a wedi'u gyfnodd iawn. Offen y gyfreith y llunodd iawn, y dyfodol iawn, ac trwy'r dwblwct Fear, un o'r llunodd iawn gwirio'r llunodd iawn, ac nhw alle brydd o'r gyfer hwn y tŵr bwn yn ôl. Mae'r llunodd iawn yn y cyfnodd iawn, Mae'n yw ddweud o'n gweithio ffalaeth bod yn galluまでi, mae'r ddechrau ffalaeth o'r certhu llifor gyda'r debyg o'r philig o myfrindwyr ardal erbyn pethau gyda'r brwysig. Ond mae'n dweud o'r ddefnyddio meddwl sy'n yn yn frof. Yn cais gwneud hynny, mae hynny'n allwch ar gincnig iawn, a wnaeth y cymdeithasol fod cyhoeddffyr o'r cywhedennau hynny'n amser iawn y ddechrau. Gweithio haf ymwaleu, mae hwnnw yn chysgol i gyrhaf y cwmdeithio. can do it as a tax cut. That tax cut could be one year or it could be over several years. You could use it in order not to increase the taxes you were otherwise going to increase or you could use it to fund a public expenditure programme. There are an infinite variety of the ways that you do it but all of them amount to running a fiscal deficit which is not financed with the issue of interest bearing debt which you have to pay back but which is issued with a is met with irredeemable fiat money. Now in my paper to the IMF I argued that if this is how we define monetary finance then it should be part of our available tools because four propositions exist. Four propositions are valid. The first is that there exist circumstances in which is appropriate to stimulate aggregate normal demand and what I put here is the strength of the argument for each of these propositions. As you can see this is the one that I have actually put the question against because I think it is the case but it is dependent on particular circumstances. Sometimes it is appropriate to stimulate normal demand and I think those circumstances exist today but it is not always the case. But these three propositions are I believe theoretically true and absolutely true. Monetary finance will always stimulate aggregate nominal demand. In some circumstances it will do so more certainly and with less side effects than available alternative policies and crucially the degree of stimulus can be controlled. We are not in a situation where you start doing this and suddenly you have done too much. You can decide to do a little or a lot. Let me just run through those four propositions. The orthodoxy today is that proposition number one definitely exists because after all that is why central banks are running zero and negative interest rates policies. If you don't believe that number one exists, if you don't believe that number one is true then the Federal Reserve shouldn't have a fed funds rate of a quarter per cent and the ECB shouldn't have a repo rate of minus. These are attempts to stimulate aggregate nominal demand. That is however being challenged by people in Germany. I think increasingly as I listen to German economists they are not arguing against ECB policy as being the wrong policy to achieve a higher rate of inflation or a higher rate of aggregate nominal demand growth. They are challenging whether that is a good idea at all. They are increasingly saying what's wrong with mild deflation. What's wrong with an economy in which nominal demand doesn't grow. Now I have engaged with them. I've been over to Frankfurt and Munich arguing about this. I think they're wrong but I actually think it's the as I say I think it's the one of these which is most debatable whereas I think the following three are not debatable at all but why do I think it's wrong. Well modern economies work best I believe with rich advanced economies with nominal GDP growth rates of something like four or five per cent per annum enabling you to combine two two and a half percent real growth in line with productivity growth at the frontier of technology and inflation of about two per cent. I am part of the orthodoxy that believes that two per cent inflation is better than zero. If you put those two together you want to have nominal demand growth running at four or five per cent and since the crisis it hasn't been doing anything like that. In the US nominal GDP has been growing at 2.9 per cent per annum in the UK at 2.4 per cent per annum in the EU at 1 per cent per annum and in Japan at minus 0.1 per cent per annum. I think I'm not going to argue it in detail here but I argue in the book and in the paper that part of the problem of what's wrong with the Japanese economy actually quite a lot in Japan's case is inadequate nominal demand growth and that quite a lot of the problem in Europe is inadequate nominal demand growth. Now that doesn't exclude the possibility that there might be lots of other things wrong as well. There's no either or between supply side measures and structural reform and demand side measures but part of the problem that we have in the global economy is a chronic deficiency of aggregate nominal demand and that is showing up in the complete failure over the last four years of the Eurozone to meet its targets. The ECB has a target of keeping inflation close to but a bit below 2 per cent and it's nowhere near. It has been falling for the last four years and it is now negative and inflationary expectations are coming down. So I believe there is a clear case for stimulating aggregate nominal demand. My second proposition, proposition two is that if you want to stimulate aggregate nominal demand money finance will always stimulate it. What is money finance? It is a fiscal stimulus. Let's be clear it is a category of fiscal stimulus. You cut taxes or you give somebody a one-off tax cuts or you increase public expenditure but it is not financed by debt and therefore there is no possibility of what is called a Ricardian equivalent effect in which the people who receive the tax cut say I know I've been given this tax cut but I know I'm going to pay back the debt in future so I'm not going to spend it. That is the great debate in economics as to whether debt finance deficits do or do not stimulate the economy is whether there is or is not Ricardian equivalence. But what we know for certain is that when you do money finance there is no Ricardian equivalence it will definitely have a stimulative effect. In technical terms and I explore this in my IMF paper you achieve an increase in household nominal net worth when you do a money finance tax cuts and you have an asymmetric effect on the private and public balance sheets. Household gross nominal wealth increases but there is no increase in the net present value of public sector liabilities or to think of it simply in Milton Friedman's helicopter money terms from his 1960 article you fill a helicopter up with money you scatter it down people pick it up they feel themselves richer in nominal terms and they will spend it and the process of spending it will either produce an increase in real output if there is an output gap and a possibility of real output growth or it will produce an increase in inflation but in some way it will stimulate nominal demand and I think it's as simple as that and that then has a very clear consequence which is if that is correct and I am convinced that those propositions are correct inadequate demand deflation or what the IMF call loflation are policy choices they are never unavoidable effects. Faced with inadequate nominal demand governments and central banks never run out of ammunition so the statement that we are out of if you think the problem is inadequate nominal demand the statement we are out of ammunition is wrong just wrong it is not technically supportable in any way. Monetary finance will always stimulate monetary demand and in some cases it will do it when the other things don't work. There are people out there in the world who are saying and you know I talked to them people like Larry Summers or Paul Crudman who get pretty close to saying why complicated and why upset people by rating the taboo you know why encourage the Federal Reserve to do something which will just bring the tea party down on his head by talking about money finance deficits why don't we just do debt finance deficits and you see articles from Larry Summers and Paul Crudman arguing for much bigger fiscal deficits in the US in the Eurozone financed in the classic fashion by debt finance and if you believe that there is no Ricardian equivalent effect right if you believe that people do not anticipate the future debt servicing burden from higher debt then they will be as stimulative of money finance deficits but you can still say money finance deficits in their stimulative effect are greater than or equal than debt finance deficits they're equal if there is no Ricardian equivalents they're greater if there is Ricardian equivalents but they are definitely greater than or equal in their effect. How do they compare with forward guidance to influence expectations? I'm increasingly convinced that all this forward guidance stuff of central banks has become a sort of absurd cultish activity of very little meaning. I mean today in Washington Janet Yellen will give a press conference and people will try and work how whether the FOMC statement has moved the comma forward or back what is it said about whether they are you know the balance of risk in some incredibly minor fashion it's like sort of 1950s criminology where we used to try and work out from where people were placed on the podium as to what was going to happen to Soviet policy. I simply don't think it has a real economy effect. I think it's not effective in the absence of real actions. It's more certain than quantity of the evening I talked earlier about how quantitative easing works are uncertain and indirect transmission challenge and as for sustained negative interest rates I think we are increasingly learning that when you go through zero some very odd things happen to the economy because of nominal contractual liabilities debt contracts that don't automatically adjust but even if negative interest rates do work and negative interest rates for instances what Ken Rogoff argues for I think they can only work by re-stimulating the very growth of private credit that got us into this mess in the first place. If our fundamental problem is that we have too much debt in the world it's pretty odd to suggest that the only way out is something whose transmission mechanism is through encouraging people to take on more private debt. So I believe that monetary finance can be in many circumstances superior or more certain on its impact on nominal demand or have less adverse side effects. The final point is the degree of stimulus can be managed and this is the most technically complicated bit of monetary finance. In a lot of the literature in for instance Milton Friedman's 1948 article actually he makes life easy for himself by imagining in a world which doesn't have fractional reserve banks and in which therefore the money supply is equal to the monetary base where you literally hand out money and that money is either held as notes and coins or it is held at 100% reserve banks. If that was the world in which we operated I think it would be pretty easy to understand that if you did in the US economy a one-off drop of 10 million new money supply you would have an impact so small you would hardly see it. 10 billion you'd have a principal impact and 10 trillion you probably would produce extreme excessive inflation. The amount of the stimulus would depend on the amount of the money that you put into the economy. The only reason why that might not be the case is if when you said you were putting in 10 billion everybody thought that that was a signal that you're going to do it again and again and again and increase the dose because if that occurred you might have an uncontrollable mechanism working through expectations and working through the exchange rate. So the management of expectations is key but as long as you can make credible commitments about how much you're doing and how much you will do in future then there is fundamentally the impact is proportional to how much you do and it's a pretty fundamental common sense proposition. It does get much more complicated when we have fractional reserve banks because when you have fractional reserve banks the money that the central bank creates is not ultimately money supply in the sense of notes and coins it is monetary base in the form of commercial bank reserves at the central bank and this is the most difficult issue in calibrating the effect of monetary finance that you do a monetary finance operation you give the commercial banks reserves the first round effect is exactly as if you were in a no fractional reserve bank world you get a moderate stimulus to start with but then somewhere down the line the commercial banks use their reserves to lend out more money and they create more private money on top of the public money that you have created. That is the essential but it is the only difficult issue with the calibration of monetary demand and there are solutions to it. The solutions are that you impose in future quantitative reserve requirements on the banks essentially to stop them taking the first order effect of a monetary finance operation and multiplying it by the creation of private money and the other thing you have to do is having imposed those requirements on the banks you have to make them non-interest bearing because if they aren't non-interest bearing you haven't funded the public deficit with non-interest bearing money and again my article by paper for the IMF explains that. My conclusion from all of that and this is what I'm going to assert and you're going to have to somewhat accept it because I've run through the technical details quite quickly but you can read it in more detail either in the book or the article. I believe that there are no valid technical reasons at all for excluding money finance from our policy toolkit. It will always stimulate nominal demand and it is technically possible to manage the degree of stimulus. But I accept that there are great political risks that if we first break the taboo then monetary finance might be used to access. So I think there is a respectable argument on monetary finance that says even though monetary finance is technically feasible and in some circumstances the best policy we should exclude its use entirely in order to avoid political risks. If somebody faced with my argument says that's my position and that is the position of for instance Otmar Ising with whom I have debated this then I respect that point of view because it's at least logical. I don't agree with it because I think we can constrain the political risks and I don't agree with it because I think we might be in such a deep deflationary trap that we need this tool. But I think this is a respectable argument whereas I think all the arguments that it's somehow technically impossible or bound to produce hyperinflation I think are put forward by people who haven't done the homework to think it through. I think this is completely technically possible. I think there are major political risks and that of course is what history tells us. When I give this lecture in Germany if I don't mention Weimar someone mentions Weimar. Here on the right hand side you have Weimar. This is a sort of kid sometime in 1923 having fun making a sort of construction out of blocks of a rice marks. I think each of these has sort of 500 notes. They're probably a billion each and when she stopped enjoying building this she's going to put it all in a wheelbarrow and by a loaf of bread. So clearly you can have an unsuccessful and excessive use of monetary finance. But the check on the left is Takahashi. Takahashi was the finance minister of Japan in 1931 through to 1935. He very successfully used monetary finance to pull Japan out of a recession more rapidly than almost any of the major economies. He was a very responsible person who in 1935 decided to end that and said we're now back to normal rates of inflation. We don't need to do it anymore and we're going to stop it and return to balance budgets, etc. and non monetary finance. Unfortunately for him at that stage the military assassinated him because they wanted to go on printing money to fund their militarism. He wasn't a militarist but we can't blame the technical policy for the unfortunate end to which Takahashi came. His policy in itself was responsible and actually the essential point was summed up by Adam Smith in the welter nations. In the 18th century the Pennsylvania colony, one of the English colonies in East Coast America very successfully used monetary finance to keep the economy going. But as Adam Smith pointed out, the success of money creation in Pennsylvania was dependent on the moderation with which it was used. Whereas exactly the same experience was deployed by several other American colonies, but for want of this moderation produced much more disorder than convenience. It produced excessive inflation. This is a tool where the result depends on how much you do and in technical terms you can decide how much you do so the crucial issue is the political risk. The issue therefore is can the political risk of the overuse of monetary finance be managed? I believe it can. I believe it would be possible for us to establish a regime in which we hand to independent central banks pursuing the inflation target. We give them the authority to decide how much monetary finance will be allowed in a particular year in pursuit of the inflation target. Now I don't think central banks can decide precisely how to spend money because that has distributional consequences which are properly the domain of elected governments. But you can have a mechanism where you divide the responsibility between the independent central bank with an inflation targeting mandate has the absolute authority to say there will be 30 billion and no more and we believe that in this environment 30 billion of money finance is a better way to get up to the inflation target than going more and more negative interest rates. I believe that such regimes could be put in place and indeed this is exactly the sort of regime which Ben Bernanke argued for two weeks ago in a Brookings Institute blog where he said pretty much exactly the same thing. So I think the UK Monetary Policy Committee between 2009 to 12 could have been given the authority to say we'd rather not do 375 billion of supposedly reversible QE instead we think there should be a somewhat smaller amount of additional fiscal stimulus permanently financed with central bank money. Now that's my technical case and my case of why I think we can politically manage this. Let me end with two points about real world implications in the two major economies where nominal demand has been most deficient and therefore where the case for a nominal demand stimulus is greatest in Japan and the Eurozone. And what I want to say on Japan is we are going to see monetary finance whether you like it or not and in some sense we are already because I want to assert that there are two realities about Japan that have to be accepted. One is Japanese government debt is never going to be repaid in the normal sense of the word repay. It's mathematically impossible it's not going to occur. And secondly that the Japanese government bonds which have been bought by the BOJ are never going to be sold back to the market. Let me support the first of those assertions by just showing you some interesting scenarios from the IMF fiscal monitor which comes out each year. In November 2010 the IMF fiscal monitor said we're going to run a scenario which shows what the Japanese government will have to do to get back to debt sustainability. And the defined debt sustainability has 200% gross debt to GDP by 2030, 80% net debt after the debt which is owned by the Social Security Fund. Let's say what's going to happen is that at present they're running a 6.5% fiscal deficit. They're going to turn that into a 6.4% surplus by 2020 and they're going to maintain that surplus at that level throughout the 2020s. You go through to October 2014 and they said well we don't seem to be making much progress in turning this fiscal deficit into a fiscal surplus but what we're now going to do is between 2014 and 2020 we're going to go from a fiscal deficit of 6% to a fiscal surplus of 5.6% and we're going to maintain that throughout the 2020s and we're going to pay down the debt. Well my last year 2015 reality have set in and there was no longer any scenario which suggested debt sustainability because it got just silly to keep asserting. So rather than asserting what had to happen for debt sustainability they said what was going to occur which is that even by 2020 the Japanese government is going to continue to run deficits and is going to continue to pile up debt. That debt is being bought by the Bank of Japan. The Bank of Japan is buying Japanese government debt at the pace of 80 trillion yen of debt per month. The Japanese government is issuing debt at the pace of about 40 to 45 trillion yen per month. The share of Japanese government debt which is owned by the Bank of Japan is therefore relentlessly increasing and there will be a date somewhere in the early 2020s where there is no Japanese government debt which is not owned either by the Japanese Social Security Fund which is an arm of the government or by the Bank of Japan. There will be no debt owed to the external private sector. Somewhere along that path market analysts are increasingly going to quote a figure which is Japanese net net debt, a Japanese net debt after everything which is owned by things that the Bank of Japan owns because normally with a company when you work out your consolidated balance sheet you don't include the debt to you or from you of things that you own. Japanese consolidated government public sector debt is in relentless decline. This is in a sense monetisation without admitting as much but because it's not admitted the Japanese government is still telling the Japanese people day after day that they face this huge future debt burden and that they're going to have to pay it back and there will have to be a sales tax increase next year and tight control of a public expenditure. It's simply not going to happen, sometime this year reality is going to set in, the sales tax increase is probably going to be delayed and should be and Japan may also do what is called a voucher distribution which is the nearest thing to helicopter money that there is. And don't worry about it, it's okay. The value of it is it's going to change the nature of the debate as it applies to a far more important and more worrying situation which is the eurozone. I'm actually not all that worried about Japan. Japan has a sort of giant accounting entry problem as to whether this debt is real debt or not. But Japan is one of the richest countries on earth. It is an ethnically and irreligiously culturally homogeneous society with very little immigration flows. It has low unemployment. It's a rich country slowly getting richer. It faces some challenges but those challenges do not include challenges to social and political cohesion. The eurozone I think is in a far more troubling state. I think this eurozone and Europe in general, if we have there a decade or another decade of economic performance as poor as it was in Japan in the 1990s and 2000s, the social and political consequences in Europe are far more serious than the social and political consequences in Japan. Because Europe is a country of many nations which are capable of getting into political disagreements with one another. It is a country with large, imperfectly integrated ethnic and religious minorities. It is a country with large high levels of unemployment and it is a country facing potentially uncontrollable immigration flows which are going to make that unemployment worse. If Europe doesn't manage to get its economy going again and deal with its debt burdens and grow nominal GDP at a reasonable rate, I think it is playing with social and political fire on a very, very dangerous basis. I think it is therefore more important in the eurozone than in Japan that we take the possibility of monetary finance out of the taboo box and consider whether it is part of the policy armory that could help our problems. Unfortunately, I think the chances of that happening are very, very slight. Because there is a real difference between doing monetary finance in a classic one country, one government, one central bank policy and in a eurozone. In a one country, one central bank, one government, when you do monetary finance, you don't get complicated or not too complicated distributional issues. If the bank of Japan and the government of Japan agree to write off the debt that the government of Japan owes the bank of Japan, everybody agrees that the only people involved in that are the people of Japan. But you try and do the same in the eurozone and you will get the German tax player saying why are you writing off the debt of the Greeks or the Italians who should have paid this back debt in the first place? You end up with distributional arguments which get in the way of the necessary policy. So I'm afraid my belief of what is going to happen on the eurozone and this is my final slide of this forum. I think what ought to happen in the eurozone is that the eurozone is an imperfect monetary union which should progress to a much greater degree of federalisation with significant debt relief. Let's make that clear. There's got to be much bigger debt relief for Greece. If you think Greece is ever going to repay all its debts, you just haven't been looking for numbers, it's just not going to occur. There's going to be either a default or a controlled restructuring of Greek debt. There should be federalisation, there should be debt relief, there should be some categories of money finance, fiscal stimulus. If you did that, I think there could be a significant economic recovery. I've got the probability of that at less than ten percent. The scenario which worries me is that I think Mario Draghi and the leadership of the ECB have the capacity whenever the eurozone is getting close to crisis to take it away from crisis by immediate interventions even if they are only verbal do whatever it takes or particular purchases under the sovereign wealth debt purchase. But I think if they simply try and fix it by QE and negative interest rates without more radical action, the eurozone will be stuck for many years with slow growth below target inflation, high unemployment and rising political pressures. That's my most likely. I think you could well see a partial break up within five years. Greece is not nearly out of its problems and I think that problem is going to return to us this year. I'm not convinced that the Italian government debt is sustainable in the long term and that could come back as a problem. I place that as only 20% in the five years, but sadly of course if scenario two is where we reside, eventually that collapses into a break up as well. So I'm not optimistic because I think the eurozone needs the capability of thinking about monetary finance, but I don't think it's going to do it. I'm sorry to end on that somewhat pessimistic point of view, but it is where my analysis takes me.


Good day, fellow investors. 55% of SAP 500 companies have reported earnings and I always like to dig into them to see what's going on, what sector is doing well, what sector is not doing well and what is the perception Wall Street has about the future. That's very interesting because it shows you how to position yourself and what to take advantage and what to be afraid of. Let's dig into the earnings, let's dig into Wall Street's expectations, estimations and recommendations. SAP 500 earnings grew 4.7% in Q3 2017, which is a good growth rate, 5% growth rate, I would immediately sign for that. However, if you look at the distribution of that growth, the highest growth percentage comes from energy, where earnings have grown at 136% thanks to high oil prices. Information technology continues to grow earnings, Amazon really added to that number, real estate is doing extremely well, stable growth materials of course with oil and increased in commodity prices, health care, consumer staples, slow growth, industrial, industrial's negative growth, consumer discretionary, negative growth, telecom negative utilities very bad and financials are the worst because of the hurricanes and the losses that insurers suffered. So going on to the insurers, they suffered losses and you can see the stock price declining while the hurricanes were hitting the coast and now the stock price is higher. How can that be? 1. The losses weren't as big as the estimates were. 2. And this really shows how one's loss is the other's gain and that's unfortunate. But analysts now expect that thanks to the hurricanes insurers will be able to raise prices and therefore have higher earnings in the future. I don't know if you agree with that but that's how Wall Street works. What's very interesting about insurers is that their stock prices have been going nothing but up since the crisis. So either they are now overvalued or investors overreacted in the 2009 crisis and avoided insurers for no reason in the post-crisis era. Nevertheless, deep market knowledge is needed for estimating such investments. You really have to dig into the risks of what they are insuring. Going back to earnings, now let's look at estimated earnings. Wall Street analysts estimate 2018 SAP 500 earnings to grow at 11.4%. That's a huge estimate. And this positive estimate leads to Wall Street's favorite valuation metric, forward earnings. I bet you see a lot of forward earnings everywhere mentioned what is the forward price earnings ratio, thus using the future expected 12 months earnings. If you listen to my recommended Jack Bogle video, he says that Wall Street likes to look at future earnings because those are usually higher and bring to lower valuations and makes easier to sell a stock with lower valuation. However, he loves to look at past earnings. Let's look at what happened and what is actually here. Not at what might happen in the future and I'll show you why. When I was digging through earnings back in February 2017, the estimated growth for SAP 500 earnings for 2017 was 11.1%. And 11.1% is much higher than the 4.7% that actually happened during this quarter. And you can see here that financial war estimated at 10.2%. Nobody estimated a hurricane. This shows how analysts really always take the past, assume no shocks, are very very positive and then give forward interpretation. You really have to look at analyst's recommendations, mine too, with two grains of salt and really do your own due diligence and be a little bit more pessimistic than Wall Street analysts. Here is why. If you look at the buy and sell recommendations, you can see that they are all skewed to the positive. Just 5 to 6% of recommendations are sold. Selling recommendations should be 50% of the market because 50% is going to outperform, 50% is going to underperform. So you see the yellow columns here? Those are the hold recommendations. So we must think of hold the same as sell recommendations when issued by a Wall Street analyst. Because Wall Street analysts, as I said, are not allowed to be negative. You get fired very soon. The only thing left is them to do YouTube videos. Not surprisingly additionally here, most negative recommendations hold and sell are utilities and telecom services, the ones that had the slowest earnings growth. If you remember our video from a few days ago, Richard Taller said that the losers usually outperform the winners later. So telecom, utilities, low growth, low earnings, declining earnings, the losers will, according to history, outperform the winners. However, analysts are recommending to sell them and buy IT because that's the thing everybody is recommending and I don't lose my job if I recommend what everybody else is doing. That's how Wall Street works. You have to be smarter in the long term to take advantage of that and not to be taken advantage from Wall Street. That's how it works. So to conclude, don't really look at forward earnings. That's just a potential. Look at what happened to insurers and financials. 10% expected and now we have a decline. So really, really try to figure out more in the long term because Wall Street looks at the past few quarters into the next one, two quarters and replicates it over and over again. Nobody looks at what will happen five quarters from now and that's very important and nobody looks at the average number of hurricanes hitting the coast.  However, if you try to find the pattern, look at the long term, you can see the average and then you can see, okay, if two hurricanes free come in a row, insurer stocks will be low, then it's time to buy. If there is no hurricanes for a long time, earnings will be high, but it will be probably time to sell. However, that's random walk completely. So even what I said is wrong because it's completely random. Nobody knows what nature will bring. However, you can be smart about investing with such related investments. If you buy when it's cheap and when company won't go bankrupt, you can expect great returns in the future, higher probability of returns. Thank you for watching. Looking forward to your comments and I'll see you in the next video.