My name's Alex Kooke, I'm an associate professor at the School of Public Health, just over an MD1, over in the US. I am currently a normal guy. From the 1st of January, I'll be taking over as a vice-team of research and head of the Baostats domain within the school. So if you're ever interested in doing any collaboration with our school, then from January, come to meet before then, you go to Michael Kern Moss. So I'll be talking about modeling analytics in population health. Firstly, can I just define what is population health? Because not everyone is completely aware of what it means. It's different from health in general. So I do not work with any data that comes from the hospital, because that is not really population health, it's not about the population. That's about patients. Instead, well, we're interested in more people like you, members of the population, who may not be sick yet, about how we can try to prevent sickness and prevent disease. So I work in modeling and analytics. And I guess you guys are data scientists, right? So analytics will be completely, you know more about analytics than I do. But maybe more, I can tell you a little bit about modeling. So what is modeling? By the way, in case you hadn't realized, I'm not from Singapore. Can you guess where I'm from? This might help. So I'm originally from Scotland. Imagine that you're in a bar and you see a man wearing a coat. What would you think when you see a man wearing a coat? You may think, a few things may come to mind.  So I don't want to go rounds with this guy because he might want to go off with his sister. You might think, well, you've seen the film, brave. Scots are brave.  If you know a lot about us, you may know that the Scots have a big problem, have a bad diet, et cetera. But if you really know as well, you might notice some particular adjectives which are blind to Scots that were thrown on it. Or we could be a bit too. Now, all of these are stereotypes of Scots. Stereotypes have an element of truth in them. When you create stereotypes, you are essentially developing a model of the world. You are not perfectly characterizing the world with a stereotype. For example, I am very generous with my money, and I'm not. I love a bad diet, I think. So you're making some approximations when you create this kind of a stereotype. But it can be useful. It's a useful way of understanding the world because actually many Scots do satisfy these characteristics. So when we're doing modeling, we're talking about mathematical modeling, what we're trying to do is basically to take something which is very complex like human beings and represent them in a simple way that more or less captures all of the dynamics of that system. Now, mathematical modeling in the area of population health has got a really, really long history. How long did it go back? 10 years? 20 years? If you go back to the year 1915, in volume one of the British medical journals, one of our top medical journals, you can see this paper by Ronald Ross. So Ronald Ross won the Nobel Prize from medicine for discovering the parasite, which is a positive area, the vector which was stressed out. Now, although he won the Nobel Prize for that, that's not what he considered to be his main scientific achievement of his life. He actually thought of his development of the field of mathematical epidemiology as being the thing which really characterized the success of his career. And if you look back at this paper, the very short scientific paper is just two pages long. On paragraph two, you can actually see one of the world's first mathematical models of a disease. It's set up as a series of ordinary differential equations which characterizes what we know about the epidemiology of that disease. So when we're doing modeling, we are using information, but in a different way from the way that data scientists would usually use information. So when you're looking at analytics for data, then essentially what you're trying to use that for when you're making decisions based on that is you take rich data because you're able to tell you pretty much everything that you can know about that underlying problem. In modeling, we kind of often will have very cracked data. Honestly, data that I have is way worse than the kind of data that's available in the hospital, where you have computer data for all patients of all the cost, and all the tests that you've got done, and so on. The kind of data that we're having access to will be like from an upgrade of a disease with 100 cases in it. So obviously it's much, much smaller than that. So what we want to try to influence policy, and one of the things that our school does is we work very closely with them into health in influencing their policies. What we are trying to do is to capture a different kind of information, rather than information from data, information from our heads. It's using expert knowledge in a sense in order to characterize relationships that may not be explicitly visible in a data set, where it's very small and it's got a little noise in it. And this is often as a cover for weak data. If I have really rich data and I've worked with the National Environment Agency, where we're predicting denki upgrades, and there I've got data on my computer for like 100,000 cases over the last 10 years. That's a very rich data set. I don't need to do any modeling of that, because the data themselves is telling me everything I need to know about it. But when we're out, we're working with some like the disease that Kisha will talk about later. We had a few hundred cases only, and there we really need to account for our knowledge of the system. So what are we talking about in this talk, in my part, so I'll be talking for the first half or so of the seminar, is about diabetes. And I'll be talking about the individual based model that we've developed for diabetes, which is influencing our colleagues in the ministry. So what I'm showing you here are data from some national health surveys which are conducted, have been conducted every six years by the Ministry of Health. This is the three surveys which were conducted in the 90s and the 90s. And what they do for this is that they will recruit 5,000 or 6,000 adults in the population, and then each one of those adults so it doesn't have to see if you got diabetes or not. And so what I'm presenting here is the prevalence of diabetes, DMs for diabetes measures, in working-age adults. So if you just look at these three data points, you think, well, it's a pretty boring plot. You're trying to predict what the future burden of diabetes would be before you think, well, it looks like it's staying constant, maybe going down another level. So I'll show you the data that had been published in the most recent national health survey. So in 2010, we saw that the prevalence of diabetes had risen to around about 13%. Another given number is, can't remember what it was, maybe 13%, maybe 12%. Now, it seems like it's a small amount, but 2% of diabetes, diabetes are very slow disease. You get diabetes usually towards the end of your life. If we had over a six-year time period a rise of 2% in the absolute percentage, that actually is a really significant amount. Now, if we're trying to predict what the future burden of diabetes will be, let's say, in the year 2050, should be well beyond the current government in Singapore, then we obviously cannot just expect that we can take the least raw data and extract it as trends into the future. Because we tried that here and then we did this wrong. So what else could we do? One of the major, the number one driver of diabetes is actually not obesity or overweight, it's age. Although you are, the more likely you are to have developed diabetes throughout your life. So what we could do, if you want to predict the future burden of diabetes is, we've deconstruct the problem, you see, I know a lot about the aging of the population and I can project how the population will age to the year 2030 to the year 2050 and so on. And I know now what is the relationship between age and the prevalence of diabetes speed. Maybe stratified by ethnic world or gender of all. So then I can then project what the demographics will look like in the future, the main driver, and use that to predict what diabetes will look like. Now that will give you a kind of an okay approximation of reality, but still just an approximation. In particular, this is the second most important thing, which is as I mentioned, overweight recently. We know that people are getting more and more overweight. There's another mechanism which may drive future trends. Now here I'm showing you the prevalence of overweight again in adults, again in the National Health Service in the year 2004 and year 2010. So across the board, this is risen, in particular amongst younger adults.   An exercise of punishment, right? So you don't want to exercise that anymore. So there we see that, it seems like that young males in their twenties are especially overweight, relatives in the past. So this represents basically a fundamental change to the rules. We cannot just expect the prevalence will be the same, but in the age groups, in the future, if more people are overweight, at least. So instead of what we could do would be that we'll forecast the population age structure and we'll also forecast what the obesity prevalence will be like going forward. And so we can combine both of these risk factors together to project the burden of diabetes. So when I'm talking about modeling, that's kind of what I mean. Each of these components is actually quite simple from an analytics perspective, but from a modeling perspective, we're bringing it all together in a more complicated way. So we've been developing a platform within our school called DEMOS, Demographic Epidemiological Model of Singapore. I was really, really proud of that acronym. So what is this? This is an individual level life history model. It combines survival analysis and what we know from statistical demography to simulate individuals at the whole population level how their lifetimes will change over time. You know what I mean, right? We're simulating their lifetimes over time. So within each individual, because we're representing people as individuals, rather than just as a population as a whole, then we can assign characteristics to those individuals that may vary dynamically over time. For example, there'll be a map. And some of these characteristics will be risk factors for disease. So by simulating, by developing this as a simulation model, we can simulate from the past through to the future and then at different time points, we can then project down from the simulation to get a simplified representation. So for example, we could project census tables at different time points. Then check, are we actually reproducing the census that we've observed? We can project down and get national health surveys and say, are we reproducing what the Ministry of Health has measured? So the kind of data that goes into this is small, kind of chaotic, in the sense that we have quite a lot of different data sets that are providing different kinds of information for our model. So we're taking data from national statistics so that the census, which has been up to there every 10 years, we take some of the data from the U of those statistics which since that publishes yearly. So we can use this to get information about things like mortality rate and how it's changing over time for our fertility rate changing over time. And that's that the drivers of the demographics of the population will look like. We also take a cross-sectional health surveys like the ones that the Ministry of Health conduct this would be in the six years so far. This tells us information about things that prevalence of risk factors and prevalence of disease in different groups in the population. You'll note that there's a lot of uncertainty on those. You look at it, the common principles are very wide. And that's because when you start cutting them up by different groups in the population, then you find the sample sizes are quite small. We also combine this with data from our own pro-mark studies at the school ones. So a pro-mark study is where you invest a lot of money recruiting people into a study and it's like millions of dollars for this. And then you measure a lot of them at baseline and then you basically wait for them to die. And you can use what you measure at baseline to get your information about what the risk factors are for that or for different diseases. So like if you get cancer, then your cancer will be notified to the registry of diseases over at MOH. And so we can then relate our cohort data to subsequent disease. Now you can imagine that not many people get cancer at a typical one-year period. So we have to recruit a large number of people based on it. So our cohorts are around 100,000 people from across the world. Now for some of these, we actually follow them up and we get them at a second time point. And so we can use this to understand how disease changes in the same group of people over time. So we have to merge all of these kind of data together. So I'm going to give you kind of a simplified representation of the model. So you get an idea of how we do it with modeling approaches. So this will be populated with arrows and boxes. So we'll start off with demographic variables. So we take the most important demographic variables of age, gender, and ethnic group. We know there's differences, for example, in ethnic groups for disease. So the prevalence of diabetes in India and Malay is much higher than it is for Chinese. For ethnic Europeans, we are at the lowest genetic risk for diabetes. Yay. A few people in the audience might be happy, but most of you don't. So this, because these are important risk factors for pretty much everything that goes on after this, we'll use these and we'll feed them into a model of the demographics of the population. So this model then creates, as output, trajectories for individuals, which gives you the time in which to get birth or maybe the time in which to die, and also migration in and out of the economy. Demographic variables also feed into a model of BMI. I'll tell you a little bit more about that in a subsequent slide. It essentially gives us a BMI trajectory, which accounts for typical changes over your lifetime. And this BMI trajectory together with demographics feeds into a model which gives us as output incidents of identities and also prevalence, instances in new cases, prevalence of total cases over your life. And because diabetes is a known risk factor for death, as well as other diseases, so we put this one back into the demographic model. A really great example to remove this spot. So we have a genetic model as well, but actually it's just for fun because we've got a lot of genetic stuff over in our school. It doesn't contribute anything, so you pretend it's not there. But essentially that gives us an extra influence in the diabetes model. And because we want to be able to project economic burden of disease, then we also want to work out who in the population has diabetes and are they working or not? And what is the contribution to the labor force? So we have built another model, which is of individuals moving between being out of work in work, which gives us a work trajectory, and we combine this with diabetes incidents to get a measure of the amount of diabetes in the workforce, as well as in the population as a whole. When you want to influence policy, what we find is that one of the most important things is to be able to go to a cost because Minister of Health is not really in charge. Minister of Finance is the one that's in charge. So if they want to go to say that something is going to be a burden to the health of the country, MOF is going to say, I don't care. If it's a burden to the economics of the country, MOF will say, okay, we should do something about it. So the demographic model, I'll just talk a little bit about that. So it is of the various aspects of your life. So for example, we have mortality rates, which we don't change over time. We basically built, using what we want to call out, we built a model which projects what that will look like over time. Fertility rates have been going down even within the two decades that we've got models set up for. So the feet fertility is a bit later and then overall fertility is lower. The data that's since that published is actually not very good for estimating this. So what we'll give out is a fertility rate in people aged 15 to 19, 20 to 24, 25 to 29. But if you think about it, probably no people aged 25 and aged 29, they're quite different fertility rates. Not a lot of people aged 25 are having kids. Fair number of people aged 29 are. So it changes by a lot even within those kind of bins that they will use for their aggregations. The hardest thing for the demographic model was actually to model migration. This is very sensitive topic. So there's not a lot of good data on this. We know from other settings that there's a typical migration pattern for age, so people tend to migrate if they are aged less than five or aged around about late 20s to late 20s. So basically, when you're working age and you have kids, but the kids are not yet at school, then migration can happen. Once your kids start school, you don't want to migrate anymore. So we find this in other countries and we were able to reverse engineer it for Singapore by looking at the change in the age pyramids that are published by SingSend. Again, we've done this for a different ethnic groups, but it all looks very similar to the one. So what this allows us to do then is to project how the profile of the population will change over time. So if you go back to about 1970s, it really wasn't age pyramids. So age pyramids are so-called because they look like pyramids in some countries. By the 1990s, the base of pyramids is moved up near this flat part of the bottom. When we can see that by the year 2050, we're looking at more like an age-care part of pyramids. So I'm going to go bear shape right now because you have too many more people. Okay, so we have a rebuild model of BMI, which I alluded to earlier. So what we're doing here is we have data from our cohort studies, which tell us about individuals at baseline and at one round of follow-up. So we have the BMI at two time points. And by looking at the patterns from across the whole cohort, we're able to build a longitudinal model which is individual-level. So we use a hierarchical model where we've got hyper-counters which govern the variability between individuals. What this characterizes is a very typical profile for weights. So on average, people who go on weight are about 18, 20s. And they kind of keep on being all the way for some time. They start to lose weight again when they get about 50 or so. So we can characterize that in this model. This lets us project what the future burden of overweight and obesity will be by looking at changes in the younger stage group that we've observed in the sense. So Singapore will start to look more and more like Scotland over time. So the final model that I want to talk about within the overall framework is our model of diabetes. So looking at the size of the audience, there's probably one or two people who have diabetes in the room. But there's probably more people in the room who have diabetes but don't know about it. So quite often you'll have diabetes but you just don't know about it. You're not going to be testing for it. So it's not like flu. If you've got flu, then you know you've got it because you've got horrible symptoms of it. But as you play around about 50% of people who have diabetes in Singapore don't know they have diabetes. One of the major problems when we're trying to reduce diabetes in the population. So we have our cohort where we have only two time points and for many people they'll have started off without diabetes but the second time we find that they've got diabetes. We don't know when they develop diabetes during that time window. So what we've done is we've developed a model of potentially cryptic unobserved diabetes which depends on a bunch of risk factors like age and ethnic group and so on. And we fitted this using a combination of Markov team on Karlo, an important sampling based on the PMID that we had before and the demographics. So by tracking the population's aging and ill health we are able to forecast what the burden of the disease will be. So for example, we can look at what we think the profile for overweight, obese, and overweight will be. And I've used that to project what we think the future prevalence of diabetes will be. You may have read about in the news that we're expecting to have a million diabetics. Maybe I read this because I'll let you know. It's about my work so I'll find out how I'm going to do that. So our projections of one million diabetics have actually been fed through to the Ministry of Health and we're signing to when Singapore declared war diabetes last year. So I'm a bit of a warm-up. Fire the first shot in the diabetes world. I think this is really unfortunate. I don't think we're going to win this war, but never mind. I've been recorded, right? The thing about me about not winning the war is let's cancel that one out of here. Okay, now the purpose of being one is not really because we want to just project the numbers. We want to go to look at what the burden of this will be and how can we try to change things so that the burden is less? So what we can do with this simulation model is to look at the effect of different interventions, what would the downstream benefits supposed to be? So if we are, so we don't really care about diabetes, diabetes itself doesn't really matter. We care about not diabetes, but the complications that come from that. So if you have diabetes, if you're a high risk of diabetes, so heart disease, et cetera, okay? So when we are thinking about interventions, these will be interventions which either focus on the risk factors for diabetes or diabetes itself. So what are risk factors? Overweight. So an intervention which tries to reduce weight in the population will target the risk factor, lower diabetes, and therefore lower diabetes. What else could you do? You could have an intervention which focuses on the disease itself. So screening people to try to identify if they have diabetes and get them on to medication. That won't change the risk factors, but it means that these will have lower risk. So I'll talk about now two such interventions. So one is weight loss programs. So one of the ministries asking us, how can you try to assess how much, if they give us a weight loss program and they can describe what we think the effect of it will be in terms of reducing weight. Can we then say, what will that be in reducing diabetes? So for this, we're gonna project under no changes what we think the future burden of diabetes and some of the complications. So for example, here for AMI, that's heart attacks and strokes. So we think that by the year 2050, we're gonna have basically about a three-fold rise in the number of heart attacks and strokes. It's a really good time to be a doctor. Not a radiologist, but any other kind of doctor. So MOH will come to us and say, okay, we want to build our program. We think that we'll roll out a population level and it will reduce the weight by some amount. Can we want to do it? That's what we say. Well, we need to transform this.  I want to get numbers. I want to be able to describe this in a more mathematical way. So we'll come up with an algorithmic way to describe it. So for example, we say, let's assume all adults in the year 2018 who have a PMI, which is medium-weight strokes, and then because I've worked with NUHS, NUHS controls this part of the country. So we can actually then break things down by the different regional health service which is in charge of the different parts. So we can use that to project what is the burden of different diseases in the different RHSs. And not just to say, this is just now, we can actually also project into the future because we know for a new housing estate is going to be developed by the year 2030. For example, the 10-day estate around the world is your own. That will probably, it will be up and running by 2030. And we know what the typical age profile is for new estates, right? Again, potentially like young married couples, maybe with young kids. So we can, from what we've learned about from past new times, we can then project what the evolution of new estates like Tengel will be and use that to project what the burden of disease will be each of these parts of the country. Oh yeah, and then, because it's individual levels, we actually, we can zoom all the way down to like blocks and say, this is like, what we expect prevalence should be for different diseases in the block. And that's used for our NUHS, but they're like the screening programs which blocks should be targeted for screening. I'm talking a little bit too long, so I'm going to, I'm going to head over to you in a second. So, I hope I spoke to you, so thanks. Thank you so much. You're welcome. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. So, so I was going to talk about smoking a bit, I won't because I've spoken too long about diabetes. So what I'll do now is I'm going to hand over to Keisha to talk a little bit about some of the work that she's doing on Zika from the Zika outbreak of last year. So it's a very different flavor. Diabetes is a very slow disease. Zika, very quick. So we had an outbreak in just a couple of months and it caused a lot of panic and it required lots of overtime for our team. So Keisha will talk a little bit about that. Okay, I guess just now Alex is just sharing about something that's like non-communicable disease. But you must be familiar with what happened in Singapore last year. We had the Zika outbreak and it pretty much the whole world knew about it. CDC in America was talking all about it. We had travel bans or travel restrictions to Singapore. So exactly when it was published, it was published on 27th of August in Straight Science. That is our most recognized journals as academics. You get it the straight times, you make it big, really. All right, so, and you must be familiar with this mosquito. I think irritated y'all quite a bit. This is the Agus egypti, also responsible for transmitting dengue. So the same mosquito transmits Zika in Singapore as well. So the very next day, suddenly they tell you 41 cases, oh my goodness, but actually not really because it's from the retrospective testing of cases. So what we did was that with the data given to us by MLH, we found that the first known case actually dates back to 31st of July. So it's not just like, oh, suddenly ministries hiding information. It's just that nobody knew Zika was actually really spreading at that point in time. And when they found out, it dates back all the way to 31st of July. So Ministry of Health actually brought in together a group of people. So we call ourselves the Singapore Zika Study Group and the work they're presenting today is actually really a collaboration between everyone that is here. So researchers at the School of Public Health, mainly us, we were helping the ministry just answering two basic questions such as how quickly was the outbreak going to grow? As it was unfolding without interventions and how widely dispersed was the Zika outbreak when it was happening itself? So answering the first part, we had case data given to us by the Ministry of Health day by day, they were coming in.  So Zika does not really transmit much from individual to individual, but it transmits faster through a factor. And this factor is a mosquito.  And we found out that on average, an infected individuals would lead to the infection of about three people. And this is actually at the construction site. So I'm not sure if you're familiar with where the outbreak was happening. It was somewhere in our junior area. So that was what we saw at the construction site. So this was the case data as it was coming in. And if there were no interventions, we found that about 90% of the population would be infected. Yeah, but then again, having said that this is, if the scenario was the same in the rest of the island, like it was at the construction site, but we know that at the construction site, you have like puddles of stagnant water. So there was actually an avenue for mosquitoes to start breeding and then biting human beings around the construction site. So NEA and National Environment Agency and the Ministry of Health, they panicked a little, but it immediately activated that intensive control measures at that area. So vector control measures that were targeted at getting rid of breeding sites as well as isolating cases.  So now we're seeing about one infected individual could potentially lead to the infection of about one case. And if you're familiar with the epidemiology, then you would know that this would lead to no longer, the disease no longer is very further. So we found that if the intervention was successful and less than 10% of the population was now den-infected. So the next thing that we did was to look at how widely dispersed was the Zika outbreak in Singapore. We must have been familiar with SARS. I think we all talk about SARS all the time. When you have an infected case with SARS, you do contact tracing. You ask the individual, okay, who have you contacted and then who are the closest contacts you have? But you can't actually do this for Zika because you cannot contact trace mosquitoes. You cannot say, A, who you bite today? Tomorrow who you bite? But actually from the pattern in space and time, so from the case data, we knew where the cases were getting infected. Where people live and work and when they were getting infected or when they started sharing symptoms, you can sort of project how the cases would be like. So this is how we represented the 455 confirmed case up to the end of November. And you can see how the disease was sort of like spreading around people here. So Zika is actually a disease that is asymptomatic. So majority of the cases actually do not feel it. So you may actually be infected with Zika but because you do not know that you're infected, you go to work. So you're actually able to transmit the disease at your workplace as well. So from here we noticed that you can, what our model could do was to not only just say, who infected whom, but where were they infected? Because we had the case of home and work address. So that's what this model is doing here. So for, could you click next on the next slide? Thank you. So for example, individual number four was infected at work by a cluster that was seated at his workplace. So this is in Algeria and this cluster was seated by someone who one of his co-workers. So his co-workers infected first, infected the mosquitoes around him and then led to the infection of him. He then can go on to seat clusters at his home and work because he does not know his sake. So he goes back home to woodlands where he's now able to let the mosquitoes around him bite and then you have other cases that spring off from there. So both at his home and his workplace. So this is how we see the mosquito cannot actually fly from our unit to woodlands. We know that the mosquitoes, the mosquitoes can fly at about 150 meters and that's the furthest but it is the human that brings the disease around. So this is how we see the serial rise part of the island being affected with Seeker. So you say, oh, there's a cluster in Algeria. Next thing you know, the cluster is in Bichon. Next thing you know, the cluster is in Sarangoon. So why is that so? It's because humans move from places to places. What we also notice is that the secondary cases can go on to seat further clusters. So they go and bring it to their workplace and their homes and et cetera. And you know that now about a large number of people are actually infecting people at home and infecting people at work. And large number of people are getting infected at home and work. So in the past, MOH usually just collects home data. They say that, oh, here's the residential address you can sort of target such infectious disease but in this case, we say no, you can't. And factor control measures that were targeted at home only because you know at your house, they'll fumigate, they will tell you, let me check your pots and your pots to see if there's water stagnant, water dead. You realize that that does not contribute to most of the infection. In fact, you need to also look at what happens at the workplace. So what we did was to evaluate, is it better to just look at the home alone? Like if we assume that Zika could only transmit at home versus if you now say that it can be transmitted at home and work. And we did some modeling with that. We found that the model that looked at both home and work was able to better explain the disease itself. So the time between the infection was about five days and the median distance about 400. That's pretty much the rough size of how people move between classes. Yeah, so when you're studying vector-borne diseases it's actually really important to understand that spatial information is very, very important. So that's what we did there. We did some spatial temporal modeling. And we do not exactly know, as we mentioned here, we look at how cases are. We don't have the exact place where individuals are infected. But the modeling acts as a lens for us to see, okay, this is the potential route in which the cases being infected by this way. So yeah, I guess that concludes our part because I think we're running out of time. Okay, so I'll just give you a bit of a sense of what population health is about. How it's different from clinical work. And also about what modeling involves. So it involves taking data which are often not very rich. Here, how many data points do we have? Either a few hundred or one, one hour break. So we're looking at data where actually the size is so much smaller than you would be able to get if you were getting data speaking to the web or you're getting it from an existing database. Okay, so I hope you don't mind. I'm gonna take advantage of this to do a little bit of advertising. I've got a job I need to fill. So within my research channel and EHS, we're looking at our research fellow who ideally have a PhD as to this day, as to the end of the day, sort of where they need to field. And their main role will be to develop an online panel to go some funding from the Ministry of Health in the last set of web calls. And so I kind of personally need to hire some for this. Also, I was speaking to one of my colleagues, one who has all the data on 100,000 dengue cases over the last decade, as well as like a million records about mosquito brain. And so she's looking to hire a data scientist over at the National Environment Agency at EHI. This is an image of someone who's got stats of computational biology or bio stats or data analytics background. So if you're interested in either of these two jobs, contact me to the first one or raise your hand for the second one. So instead, find an eight-kitchen watch every time. Okay, so we, together with MIT, so NUS, we have, we organized this thing called a data ton, which is basically hackathon with actual data. And we had one just, no, mid of this year, sometime in end of June, where we got a group of people came down together to just hack on data over two days. If you're interested, look out for it. We will be having one in June next year. So the webpage is still up. You can go and check it out. And we hope to see you there. Thank you. It's free of charge. All right, thank you. I like the kitchen, pretty fascinating stuff. Actually, we still have some minutes, so we're going to... Oh, I still got the showcase.


Hi, I'm Charlotte. And I'm here to talk about artificial intelligence. Last time we learned about recommender systems and data aggregators. How do those systems work? They work by AI sorting algorithms that help us to identify and match what we're looking for. Here's an example. Perhaps you want to listen to a podcast. And you've listened to several before. And the recommender system can recommend future podcasts that you might enjoy. We can also use AI sorting algorithms for health diagnoses and facial recognition. These AI sorting algorithms need to be both sensitive, so we don't skip important data, and specific, so that you don't find things that aren't there. So here's an example. Let's say that you want to search for dalmatians. These black and white dogs, right?  And a specific algorithm doesn't find cows. Doesn't find children in a dog costume. It doesn't find zebras. It just finds dalmatians. You can have a system that has false negatives and false positives.  A false positive is when an item is identified as a match and it is not, such as if a healthy person is told they're sick. Both false negatives and false positives are bad. For example, if we treat someone who's not sick, they may have pain and expense when they didn't need to. If we don't treat someone who is sick, then they may get sicker. So it's important that we refine these AI sorting algorithms to balance between the sensitive and the specific to eliminate both false negatives and false positives.  Usually we need results that are on a spectrum. So even in medicine or labeling that podcast that we wanna listen to, we need a balance of the algorithm finding, narrowing down what we need and a human deciding those final steps. Here's an example. Let's look at some pictures. What is swimming? Is it these kids in a competition? Is it kids playing at the beach? How about if they're riding on rafts? How about these surfers? What about water polo? How about this fish? Which of these would you label as swimming? We have to decide. It might be a spectrum. Maybe we're looking for a certain type of swimming. You can play with this crowdsource.google.com. Then we can explore more about AI sorting algorithms and how they're used for identification.


Hello everybody, if it's Saturday and we're live then that must mean it's Warhammer and a Warhammer reaction show Joining me not as always, but I've got a replacement Tom. We've upgraded It's it's Ninjohn. It's mr. John Nina's. How you doing brother? I'm doing a wonderful. Thanks for having me And you know it only took us so many subtle hints for Tom to finally get the notice We don't want you anymore Tom. No, it's fine Tom is He had some family Commitments today. I don't know why you'd schedule a family commitment on the day of a Warhammer reaction show That's that's bad planning Tom. It's bad plan. It's the first thing you check on the calendar, right? Obviously Yeah, yeah, I mean It's just It's just poor planning but thankfully John the hero. He was there. He stepped up. He's joining and We're gonna talk about all this stuff man for like let's do high-level John What'd you think of everything we saw for a OS today? What do you think of everything? well, I'm a little bit partial probably because I was pretty excited the Things that they showed are right in my wheelhouse. So I was pumped. They showed more than I probably had expected I had expected maybe a little bit less AOS right and just to sprinkle a bunch around the other games kind of equally But it really was pretty AOS heavy this morning. So I'm happy with that Yeah, I agree. This was definitely more than I thought I mean one thing was thank you finally We got the grave lords can we all just take a moment to say we appreciate you finally just revealing this thing? We all knew was coming that we it was like the worst kept secret in history, but What a reveal what a reveal so We got the full ride here. Okay, so let's let's just get into this man. Let's let's let's rock and roll I say we just we just jump into it So let's start out with the soul blight grave lords the SBG's Okay, here they are I'll let the video scroll for a minute while we talk it's on mute So nobody all they won't blow any years out or anything I didn't see anything hiding in the background. I scrubbed this video multiple times looking for like anything else anything else Hide back there. Do they put anything else in couldn't find anything if somebody else if I miss something Please tell me out there chat, but Yeah, man, if anything is it is hidden It's it's obscured by all the branches sticking out of the zombies Yes, the zombies themselves are like a forest they're obscuring right exactly yeah hundred percent Okay, so I mean obviously there's a lot to break down here, but John there's only one place we can start with the new soul blight grave lords Obviously we're gonna talk about the blood knights to begin right? I mean this is this is the show This is what we came for right right and this is what I thought we were going to see today I just didn't think we were going to see anything else Until they had that little The little sneaky peek of an outline of what looked like a zombie without a gravestone attached to him earlier in the week And I'm like I'm not gonna get my hopes up But this is what we came for and you are right that the image on the left in the shadow of the triple Threat earlier this week was in fact that female grave lord holding the banner on her lance. Yes Boom yeah, like she's great Uh, I don't know why like whatever it's fine. There should have been two two girl blood knights. Yeah, that's fine They only have one out of the five. It's just like I don't it's not about like Some kind of 50-50 thing. I just really like the sculpt. I just literally think this armor looks really cool In the female armor like I've never truly loved the the double clamshell thing, right? right and The the different chest armor actually just breaks it up. So it's nothing more than aesthetics for me I actually like the that form but still that's a minor quibble banner incredible Obviously, this will be one of those pre fabricated. You can paint the parts banner. You don't have to Paint my number paint my numbers. Yes, exactly Yeah, and so I look at this and I see all the beautiful folds in that banner with that Kind of a relief that's put on to it. And I'm like man, that's gonna be a pain to try to scrape that off But say lovey yeah, exactly if you like I It's one of those things where I hope I wish I doubt they'll do it but like one of the things I would really love when they do stuff like this is if they had the Like this version of the banner, right?  Totally fair. This would be a big effort But I wish they had like this version and then a flat version, you know like a detail-less version that way If you did want to freehand or put your own You know iconography if you don't want to be blood dragons or whatever You can you can do that, right? Yeah, I mean you're just asking for extra bits Vince. That is at the Paul order. You're I am asking for extra I am yes Cameron Smith said check out 34 seconds into the video. Okay. Let's look he said he sees a guy with a big Mace let's let's take a look Oh, yes, okay, so blood night with a big Mace Yeah, that's interesting because none of the blood nights do have maces It could be oh no, this guy has a big mace. It's just a leader does yeah, it's just the leader guy. Yep.  Yeah, yeah They're giving you the the great shot of his face and with that you get the angle of it Whatever he's holding doesn't look very obvious. But yeah, that's a big mace. Yep Just like the vampire Lord, right and he have a mace like that too. Yeah, it's smaller than parallel Yep okay, so I'm kind of torn, you know, we were we already kind of talking about these things and one My score is an eight out of ten on these models on the blood nights on the blood nights Okay, I think they're they're great because of what they are Mm-hmm. I don't love them though. I don't get why you have a live horse with a skull head Isn't I think it's a dead horse. I don't think it's a live horse It's a nightmare, which has always been this weird like undead pseudo quasi Thing like I mean you and I are both D&D players for a long time So when we hear the word nightmare, we don't think of this, right? We don't think of a skeletal horse Warhammers never had a nightmare like I think of a nightmare like we probably think of a nightmare, right? Yeah Okay, I mean if there was a little it's just the weird this is that his face is a completely bleached skull Yeah, and then but everything else looks normal worse Yeah, and maybe you're right though that it is it's not that it's a dead horse It's that it is a nightmare and this is what nightmares look like. Okay, right? Okay. I can go around to that a little bit Yeah, the aesthetic on the armor is cool Like I said, I'm not a giant fan of the clamshell armor either the heads are awesome though They really are these are just across the board awesome the females probably my favorite Yeah, I love the like swoop of the hair up to one side, right like yeah Yep, and on that leader model these like big nasty reverse wing armor things that are coming up I dig those his like his back his back wings or whatever. Yes. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, it's super good Yeah, I mean I'm gonna go nine out of ten on these guys I think they live up to what we wanted to see out of Blood Knights. They're a great reimagining of the old kit I I I honestly wish we had a little more of that a Little more flourishy stuff like like why don't they have super long cloaks billowing out behind them is one thing that occurred to me That would have really pushed it over the edge for me, right something like that. I think would have been cool So but that being said these guys are fantastic John here we go. Let's call it now Points how much How much current blood night kit five for a hundred dollars obviously that kids retired it's not actually available anymore, right? But it was five for a hundred dollars how much John is the new kit of blood Knights Okay in US dollars US dollars I'm waffling between 60 and 65 for five. Okay, okay, I think it might be 55 But I think maybe I'm being a little bit optimistic if I'm thinking that Yeah, I don't know that's where I'm landing if it's more than 65 bucks for five I'll just I'll just get very garden and then I'll just get bash my own better than me, so I Am saying well, I mean you have very guarded three for a hundred Somebody pointed out that I think this blood night might actually have the same female armor So maybe you're right. I didn't like the lance is kind of covering the torso plate. So good call. So awesome. There you go 75 bucks No, I'm going for it. I'm going for it. You know like the because here's here's my ultimate belief They price by points in your army not by anything else Okay So like the way that they think about how they price stuff is what percentage of your army? Are you buying when you buy this kit? all right and So like I fully believe that's how games workshop prices things because you know plastic is plastic designs design It's all sunk cost, right? So they've got to think what that's not how they think about things, right? Yeah, so and these guys will still be like Probably 280 300 points, you know, they'll be way up there Okay, I Just looked up how much a box of black knight's costs and those are 38 dollars Double it yeah, because I mean if you like there you get it cheaper Like this isn't a hard and fast rule But like it's one of the reasons giants were so expensive, right? They were like well if you get all they have you know X of them every one of them is a quarter your army We got it. We got to jack that price way up to cover that, right? So you're saying like there's an algorithm of 2,000 points divided by a percentage of 2,000 points must equal roughly this Price range. Yes for a total army size. Okay for the new stuff. They do right certain weird legacy models Obviously now that's that's when they make a new thing is what I'm saying, right like legacy models stuff like that You they also know that like if they had this kit that was $20 Sure, they'll inflate it once every three years because they they they do they track inflation with a third of their range every year or whatever But like they can't just take that $20 kit that probably they would price it 45 now and boom jack it way up, right? They'll they'll have people riot so they'll move it like 20 to 22 to 25 to 27 Like it's the creeping advance of time, right? All right. Yeah, blood Knights are great. Let's talk new Skeletons Okay Yeah, what do you think of the new the new deathrattle Skeletons here? Obviously very similar to the cursed city ones though Not exactly the same. They don't all have the same shimmy shake to them Yeah, right some of them are much more like these two I've got on screen right here One is kind of tilted but one is kind of standing straight up with his spear out, right?  Yeah He kind of just looks like like What what's up with you? Like seriously, yeah, do this right? This is what we're doing So they did say that these are gonna be options for a sword or a spear Yes, my print my prediction is this is the same unit. That's in the box recursive Yeah, I think it's like a subsection, right? Yeah. Yes Because I think it would be weird when they're so very similar That they would have that be you know like cursed city skeletons and then deathrattle Skeletons like I Don't know. I think it would be weird They're clearly all the same unit and it's obvious that aesthetically you can sort of mix and match them, right? Yeah, and I'll say By the by to me This is a huge win because we talked about how one of the problems of some of the cursed city stuff is it was a little too Samey right which because they're board game stuff. They're all sort of you know meant to be Feeling the same a little more like, you know, they want to keep the sprues more simple blah blah blah blah blah, right? Mm-hmm and So but these guys clearly they can go bigger But if you just go get cursed city and take those 10 skeletons and integrate it into this unit Done like they're gonna look perfect. Yeah, no issue So these are these are clearly the new skeletons the new the new basic skeletons like they will replace the existing skeleton Skeleton warriors. Yes skeleton warriors. Yes, because they are deathrattle skeletons That's wild that they would replace that kit Which is a solid kit and it's not And I have like any of them, so that's why I'm sad But I don't need to buy all these right away But I will anyway because these are these are superior not even close I Like that if you look at the guy with the banner, I like that it's not a super tall banner, right? Whenever you have the banner the big super super tall banner ones, especially on 25 millimeter rounds Like that dude is just gonna fall over eight times a game It's because they're so top-heavy from that plastic banner waving off and it's gonna sink so I like this. I like that Yeah The question John will be do they keep these guys on 25s or do they move them to 28s? Won't that be the question? They look like 25s. They do look like 25 mil bases. Yes. Yeah, yeah But who knows I mean when you do this to you get a slight scale creep in things too So these guys are actually probably noticeably beefier than the old scouts and warriors So maybe the fact that their feet are on the edges of the bases It still looks in scale with the 28. I don't know The fact that they're giving you options of sword and spear Really makes the spears of much more exciting option if they are on 28s, but we'll see Yeah, it'd be a huge change because then you're 80 skeletons John.  I think maybe at that point I just buy another five boxes of the sepulchral garden be like those are on 25s too son of a gun Uh, it is the giant question right now of how much stuff moves to 28s Like do they only do with new things because you know that like that for example when they came out with the new slanesh archers All right, the foot archers. That's a unit that would classically have been on 25s, right? standard human Little weedy low armor Normal-sized person foot archer right units on 28s Their range though. So I think you get less of an uproar with that Sure, nobody had existing bliss bar bargers, right? Yeah Yeah, so it'll be interesting. It'll be interesting. I don't if they do you start pulling all this to 28s You're gonna have this weird kind of a timeline Where certain horde armies are gonna simply be better than newer rides because of the you know Your plague mugs are suddenly getting better in the meta of not by changing at all Simply because of the ranks. Yep Yep Yep, it's that it is like this giant proud nail right now in the game that we just can't deal with properly because none of us Want to rebase our stuff?  So yes, I feel the pain believe me Uh Let's talk about these new zombies man new dead walker zombies Obviously replacing the old zombie kit finally it had a good run. It had a good run I'm happy. I'm happy. I never bought any of that kit. I held off and held off kept thinking they we're gonna bring these back and Finally they did finally they did These guys are great We you know our problem with the cursed city zombies was why do all of them have The Why do all of them have the tombstones on their back, right? Right, so then they said we hear you and and of course here you yeah You've got a guy or two with the tombstone aesthetic. Perfect. There's always said it. It's a cool aesthetic. It should just be Two or three dudes out of the unit and hey look that's what it is 210 I Like those odds and even like the dude that's leaning over that's got the sword and he's just kind of getting impaled through with the stake Yeah, like that. I don't really mind at all. That's kind of unique. It's just the weird like you buried everybody face down Like three inches under the ground. Yes, like what you just made these zombies lives that much easier from rising from the grave Because they're right under the crowd.  It's just common sense. Oh Yeah, I'm pretty excited about these if they're new zombies there There are little things that I dislike which is the roots everywhere But little sticks. Let's talk about sticks man. How do you feel about the roots coming? Yeah? It's just gonna mean another two hours per block of 40 that I'm going through and snipping off sticks It's what that means for me And because there's zombies I don't think this is a major killer for me because you can add gore and gunk or even just snip it File it really quick add some grossness there and you'd never know I think I agree Like it would be this is this is so easy to fix and for me I'll tell you what this is the equivalent of John. You know that aesthetic that they use sometimes of like the skull Pimples in the in the flesh of chaos dudes where they'll have like their flesh just like a skull randomly popping out of their flesh Yes, right like Dorgar has this a couple other models have this I can think of few aesthetic choices I've hated more in all of the history of Warhammer than that. Okay.  I sanded it a little bit.  That's what that's what zombies have It's another great use for sprue goo to right you just snip it and then put a little sprue goo there And it'll be smooth as much as you need done and dusted So yeah, these guys are great and again, I think like you this is one of those units that That like they got the mix right on I like all the different weird weapons like do the scythe dude with a shovel You know somebody actually has a real sword You know like just there's a it's a really nice mix of poses and weapons and things going on so Yes My quite I do have a follow-up question to something you brought up earlier. I'm ready zombies, okay The pricing kits based on points in the army. Yeah, sure sure that that doesn't work with these These are gonna be like 60 points for 10 and you know damn well It's not gonna be $14 for a box of 10 of them. It's gonna be 30. Well, here's my question Do they come in boxes of 10? Yeah, that would sure be swell if they came in 20 chain rafts do come in 20s I think now don't there are 20. There are boxes of 20s, right? It's just thinking of newer stuff if they've done that with newer stuff. Yeah So I think that's how they get around this because it'll probably be a still a unit like that is bought in 2040 60 You understand I'm saying instead of like 10 20 30 40 50 60 like it or 10 20 30 40 Like it'll probably still be it's in that rarefied category of units that can go to 60 models Yeah, right. Yeah, and so I would say they probably still put it like they probably still put them out in 20s Yeah, I would make it 2040 60 be the unit purchase So there you go. I Hey, I hope you're right. I don't have any faith that you are but I hope that you're right I'm gonna put my money down now these come in boxes of 20 and Like as people have pointed out more tech come in boxes of 20 as many people have said in the comments So there you go. Okay, and the last kit of Dead Walker zombies did come in 20s as well 38 dollars for 20. So Okay, I'm with you. So there'll be a slide upgrade. We'll be talking about 20 of them for like 45 Yeah, or I would do I'd do that all day. I'd paid 45 for 20 of these things. Yeah, that seems reasonable That's that's what I'm thinking. I think they'll because again, I fully believe they price on points I agree with you. They'll still be cheap, right? Like these are still gonna be cheap because they are what they are, right? They're meant to be just like the shambling hordes Right, and I just think they'll make them 20 40 60 in the new book That'll be the way that you roll them out because they're meant to just be these big chaffy ridiculous Hordes of dudes, right? Yes. Yeah, I'm all for that. I want every inch of this board Yeah, just have none of it. Just zombies just spreading out everywhere, right? There's something compelling about that Sort of that aesthetic, right? The zombies just flooding out everywhere And if they're cool looking zombies all painted a wool baby, I'm in for that That's gonna be that's gonna be a fun video. John paints 120 zombies Yeah, that's that that video right there. That writes itself, buddy We're like every ball every one of us who makes youtube videos is like painting stuff The week these guys come out are just like how to paint 120 zombies in two hours Video makes itself Right. Yeah, all you need is two spec two cans of rattle can spray paint. You're done. They can do it all um Yeah, I uh, I'm looking forward and then we did see the a bit of a reveal on the rules of some of the cursed city characters this week and we saw that that uh What I can't remember what his name was but they like the head gravestkeeper or whatever He can they didn't say show his rule But then they said he can summon zombies. He can summon zombies. So Come on, baby. Let's give us. Let's give us some free 60 packs. Come on. We can do it Yeah, absolutely. Yeah, and that dude is great and yes I love the idea that with him or something like that you could have a zombie focused army Right that we actually have tools where we could do the zombie horde as a as an army concept because that actually was traditionally like Not something that was very easy to do in most editions not always there's some editions where it was cool But it's it's never been a thing. So i'm glad to see that like with with heroes meant to work with zombies Yes, thumbs. Yeah, all right. Now we got to talk about these boys by the way, john Can't leave him behind let's talk about let's talk about uh them bats Them we're talking about the best model revealed today. Yes, it's creepy daddy bat Looking for his creepy sons this guy over here That's right He's creeping across the rock looking for his creepy sons that are creeping across other rocks in the bat swarms in the cursed city That dude is the best Love the new fell bats and I love that we've got bat swarms In cursed city and new fell bats here. We got we got the new and the obviously my favorite picture is when from when I had You know all you guys over and everybody did the the bat stance where everybody was doing the various bat poses For the for the for the bats. So yes all about these these fell bats like it's great that we'll get Uh That we'll get all the new bat models will be there Uh what we didn't see no wolves John are we getting new dire wolves as well? No, we are we're getting new dire wolves. I put I put my lunch money on it that we're getting new dire wolves for sure They have it in The cover of the box. There is a dire wolf and that old kit is derpy as heck and I um I don't think it's available right now anymore actually. There you go Uh, yeah, I I completely agree with you right like there's a John's point is the scan down in the book here. Why what do we have here next to the vampire? But a little a little wolfy boy He's the vampire has his best boy his his friend here. He's got a good boy And we did not see a new dire wolf kit. I think I agree with you. I think they sat on it It didn't show up in the video But yes, like because can we just get a new dire wolf kit so we can all stop using Forenzian wolves or Lord of the Rings wolves, which is all I've ever seen used as dire wolves ever right right Yeah, and I've got a couple units of those painted up with the Fenrisian wolves and they're nice You have to paint them basically just like dark evil wolves with glowy eyes may work, but it's not the same It's not the same right right So, yes, let's just get and by the way if it looks like this dude like look at this wolf with his like open jaw Right like the bottom. Yeah, exactly like what an awesome kit this if this art just becomes a kit Like yeah, that's that's sweet. Yes, please I would love it if they were like that a little bit Maybe even a little bit bigger a little bit airier meaner looking and make them Make them reflect that and the rules a little bit because They have their purpose currently, but they're really just they die to a stiff breeze. They can just move They can move pretty quick, but um You know, I'd like them to be a little bit beefier. We got plenty of chaff for the for that other purpose, but You know, I'll say about the bats. I was a little bit surprised Because they have been kind of so far removed off the radar of death For forever of bats one being used in the game really but two just the models are so out of date and even really like Attempt to reprint them for purchase. Yeah, it was just not even an option. So they bring them both back Exciting I'm curious to see what they're going to do with that from a game perspective If they're basically going to fill the same role or not I like I like the swarms for their ability to make it harder to shoot through them, which is nice Yes, like what role do these bats play? This has been a classic challenge with the legions of negash, right? Because they've got so many legacy units. It's like what actual role is are all the things in this army playing? Uh, and it feels like what you would want these fell bats to be is like super fast Like engaging chaff right flying engaging chaff But then and sure like the little bat swarms are just up meant to literally hang out in your army and be like a Debuff to things like shooting like if they if they get those rules right Then they could be really useful. I hope they do like obviously we're going to see new scrolls and uh So just let real quick here at the bottom. They have this text You can find all the war scrolls for these new units in the sole blight grave lords battle dome spg Packed with updated lore battle plans and more it's tough to pursue the wealth of contents for negash's undead legions too So don't uh, so budding generals of death grand alliance definitely want to miss it after all Critza the rat prince isn't the only vampire setting forth in search of victims Dun dun dun So we've got obviously, you know critza who we had seen before the rat vampire We've got the generic vampire lord. They showed in the video So john that leads me to the question. We've got this vampire lord on zombie dragon back here in the background of the picture This is the question john Are we going to retire a relatively new kit that is in use in multiple ways? Across the armies right because it's that's where you get the fec Boss as well, right? Yeah, and actually get a new Vampire lord on zombie dragon. Are we getting a new big model like that? Or is this going to be a release without a big centerpiece? I I think history recent history has showed us the value that gw is placing in centerpiece models and armies Yep, um And so it would surprise me if they just nixed that old kit It wouldn't surprise me if we have a new big named Hero on one that that's a brand new kit Um, so we've seen it obviously going back to catacross, but you know, obviously lube enough realm lords have though There's the new bellicor We're seeing their kind of and I know these things sell like crazy. So it's a 365 bucks for them to print this I think they will I think they will be I mean they have the article From the lower perspective about manfred just this week Yeah, so I was a little bit nervous that like oh, it's that their thing They're gonna push manfred is kind of is the big named character through this army But now i'm kind of thinking maybe not that that picture of that vampire on dragon looks So cool We need that. So let me let me suggest to you an alternative. Do you remember the old vampire lord on abyssal terror? That was like from way back. Okay. Yep What if as a new big centerpiece model instead of retiring a perfectly functional kit right that they still want to use What if we keep that kit? Okay, we keep that there. It's still there. We've still got the the valazda. He's around prince vorder I still around right all the all the vampire lord on zombie dragon action. You've come to know and love remains Yep, but we get a new reimagining of a vampire lord on abyssal terror as well Like a different kind of big flying monster Yeah, I I think that's probably best case scenario and i'm all for that more options more better, right? I want to keep my old stuff and I think they don't retire that kid I think they think that's too silly to do that. Um, you're better off Giving us something else you need to buy in addition Yeah, absolutely Why retire a thing and make you replace it? Which will possibly make you angry when we can just give you a second thing that you'll want to add to your army, right? And then if you're new to this army Maybe you want both so now we're by we're selling the old kid and the new kid. So exactly that feels more reasonable to me right So, uh, and some 93 nordo said abyssal terrors are smaller though. No, no abyssal terrors were Smaller though is the correct answer there my friend like, uh, things get bigger. Have you seen old sigvald versus new sigvald? He he got bigger. He done got big Okay, old bell old bellicor versus new bellicor Like old bellicor was a little tiny baby. Yeah, uh, he real big now So how big something was doesn't mean how big something is especially when it's a big centerpiece thing like that Uh, john, can we can we geek on a painting thing real quick here that probably the audience won't pick up on but I noticed Okay, go for it. Okay How fantastic is the lighting on that vampire? Uh, just I was I've been I've been obsessed with it since they revealed this image So it's an underlit warm light Right with an extremely hard primary cold light And look how primarily strong that cold light is it's turning the red armor blue Notice that like this is the other side of the armor and it's pure blue It doesn't show any of the red still That's stark moonlight. That is just a beam is shot right down Across his left side while still showing up nice warm red right towards you. This is yeah, this is amazing I was like, wow This is how I want to paint that armor Yes, I'm trying to think like if you did that in reality by the way the cast shadow and stuff too and obviously like the We we talk about all the time about on both of our channels about volumetric highlighting And how like the details that are far away from the The focal point of the model can be less highlighted and like look at the legs Look how little highlight there is down here, right? It's barely any detail picked out But like I have to picture painting this model in reality where literally like half of the model is just blues And half of the model is red and like would it sell in reality? Yeah, I don't know Um, I've done I've done something similar when I painted a kingdom death The lion the white lion. Yeah. Yeah, where he's walking into a warm light But then over his rear shoulder was that bright almost that same blue. Um, and it actually is not Too difficult You basically base coat the whole thing in like the red in this case And then you just airbrush from your stark direction and just Shoot it at that one angle. Yeah, and then just go about your painting as usual And just build up the blues there. I think it's doable now You're gonna do this same kind of thing across again those 120 zombies as well That might be a bit much You're gonna get some best painted awards. I'll tell you that There you go. But yeah, beautiful book. Can't wait. Uh, let's get the sbg's out here right away Uh, by the way, I'm calling that we these their their their acronym is sbg. I don't want to see sg It's sbg soul blight grave lords. So let's get that. Let's get that all locked in our heads sbg So there we go. Okay. All right. I'll stop that away now Something else came that is more question marks than answers. Oh, John Let's do it, buddy. Let's do it. Here we go. So, uh, I need to meet the video and let's give that a play Uh This is not what I was expecting as this is playing. Let's just talk We know broken realms two is coming next week tech lists going on pre-order next week They did confirm that in the video So broken realms two tech lists going on pre-order next week, which means we have Two weeks in a row of pre-orders. So maybe we're getting back to a weekly schedule. Maybe we're finally ironing it out And We know book three is bellicor. We've already seen the book Right, we saw the cover they previewed that looks fantastic. Okay And now we've got broken realms crag nose. I'm sorry who? Crag nose.  Um, I have only a 20 second video to go by so All right to me looks like a shag off But missing the front cause Yeah, it sounds it feels destruction at first when it first started and they show this I was like, oh my gosh They're bringing karnathi. This is the entrance to karnathi And then I went unfold and talking about his people are gone. I was like, gosh, I don't really know It sounds more destructiony to me. Um, so that's where I went towards the beastman shag outside, but I've completely had a loss exactly and he's it examined that visual of what he looks like because he does have horse hooves He does Okay, do you want to know who this guy is?  It's not it's just it like or sorry big cast thing or like a big cast beastman thing Or a big order thing It's not it's a destruction god beast okay, and Uh, he says if you listen to his words in the video Okay, he says I awoke from my mountain And found that my people were gone Okay, what mountain did he wake up from? I don't know. I'll do be straight Oh Of course, which is in ger Which is where all of the destruction people currently are Yes, which is where the big was getting called by some force that gorderak can't fathom Okay, I guess we know what that force is now correct. It's crag knows Like that's what this guy is He's like destruction famously is one of the uh forces that lacks a god figure Right actually present in the world to lead them like i'm not like gork and morca off doing whatever they're doing Okay Being sometimes one person sometimes two people whatever now. I'm not saying they're not there. They're just they're just there They're around But they lack a morathi Alloreal negash Blah blah blah blah blah, right? Right Yep on the table and so and everything that uh That gorderak and the destruction is calling says they they need some new god to call out to you, right?  He's what what made it what it was, right? And he's going to wake up out of the mountain and be like and that's why he says all his people are gone, right? Because obviously it's beast grave Dead the answer is in the title.  And uh, and so that's what he's going to be There you go Uh, you can either agree with me or find out i'm right in a couple months. Those are the choices So does that mean that he's in almost a gotrek like in rules and that he is takeable in any destruction force Who knows uh, who even knows maybe Maybe that's the kind of thing he is. Maybe he's like, yeah, maybe he's like a super god where he's like gotrek You know for order where you can like take him in all of the different stuff, right? He's considered an ally doesn't his not points restricted on ally stuff. So he doesn't get benefits Yeah, I could see that otherwise the haves and the have nots in destruction Um in being able to take him makes it interesting. Yeah, I I assume he could probably just slot into any destruction army But but who knows right? um And you know, that's that's what he's going to be this big giant new god beast sort of thing of uh, of uh Of destruction. So yeah, there you go Uh, so that book then i'm looking at and that'll be the destruction book by the way Like if you think about the the the order of things that are going on Like obviously that book we're timed for the destruction book Right. Yes. Okay. So then that's that allows them to slot him in there in all of that destruction focused work pretty easily pretty seamlessly In addition to other additional stuff. They're going to do for destruction. Okay. All right. I'll I'll sell you further I'll sell you further on why I'm right. Okay. I mean I I'm right, but it's cool. Uh the The Okay, aos three. We know it's coming this year. It's starter box. What's the obvious thing that the starter box is going to have in it? because and Some bad guy some destruction because we had chaos then we had death now everybody knows we need destruction right, so If you're going to make destruction the main enemy in the relaunch Of the addition then there's got to be something to precipitate that Right, sure. They don't just like you're not just going to throw it in because it's fun Things are narratively driven now. They want to have excuses. Okay. Yeah So That means that they need some big thing To precipitate destruction becoming the new threat Releasing their big giant god beast out into the world Would precipitate that so broken realms four will lead directly into aos three Probably about the same time There you go so There you go So what I'll say is this um We're gonna get squig pigs in that starter box Oh, we're gonna talk about them squig pigs even though that's 40k thing because uh, I'm excited about them But yeah, so that's that's this dude. That's this is all my call Uh, I don't think I'm wrong So there we go All right, Babe Ruth call you shot. I think it's good There you go. Like I said Uh, no Keith sadly. I I had to retire this gave an idea. I wish it would have been that's how I would have done it But all signs point to big bad voodoo daddies and destruction. So there you go Okay, I'm curious what that actual army is going to be it might be bone split as he fits really well Kind of with what we're learning so far with the bone split is themed to Yeah, I don't know as far as like what the the you know, what destruction they put in there Maybe it's kind of a mix of all because he draws it together. Maybe it's not. Maybe it's something new Maybe it's like iron jaws. Maybe it's who knows. I don't know No clue Right, so yeah, uh cragnos. There you go. Uh One more aos related thing for today the the whole like by the way the ending text here is a realm quakes A god wakes right which just very much aligns with all of the destruction stuff. They've been Doing as far as ger and the big destruction wa and stuff like that. So I I feel like we're gonna hear that word quake again in some other Rhymey scheme of a naming of something Yeah, sure The quake lords. Yep. I don't know Uh, it's a good word. It's a funny word. I like it. Absolutely. All right Uh, all right. Okay.  You're in for you're in for boner boys So, you know, you have a you have a bone daddy army So what did you think of these new? Guys, what do you what do you think of the new underworld's obr models? Yeah, I mean if you're in for a tarsal you're in for a femur. So I guess I'm in um, and so I I both love this and hate this at the same time. All right. Um, the leader dude is awesome He's so awesome. Me or canan or whatever his name is. Yes Canan, um, which is a great name too And then they just were like, ah, let's throw five more tech garden here And I'm just like, come on Give me a little something to work with here. They they just They're slightly more unique poses, but I'd throw them on the board and they I wouldn't even know what they were other than the dude with the with the bow And the dude with the bow is great I want a whole box full of these guys that I can take as a unit, but we all know that's not going to happen so I don't know. I was a little bit disappointed when I was excited to see what the rest of his warband was going to look like Based on how awesome he looked, right? And I was just I just kind of was deflated and it was just five more tech garden Yeah, sure. I mean you obviously you've got the aussie archer long bone man. As we've said, that's his official name uh Okay, so John Should this herald a release for you of obr 2 boner boogaloo Where you get entire archer units um From a balanced standpoint in the game. That's not a smart move I appreciate your honesty Is I can sit there and not die unless I let mince throw three megas into my face Which I did And you wipe the floor with me, but if I can sit back and just unleash arrows on you That's that's not a fun game That's not a fun if you've got catapults and archers and suddenly become like a a true ranged power Yeah Yeah, I can foresee I take a couple of giant blocks of more tech guard a couple of giant blocks of Of archers, maybe even just one and then a catapult or two and a couple of death riders to swing around at like 18 inch move to grab objective after I just peel you off the table That that's a pretty non-interactive game right there Well, yes, and as somebody pointed out I was going to mention that yes, they do actually say uh, I'll scan up here because yes, this is there's a nice size comparison.   He's probably stands another head taller than them Yeah, he's big The regular guys are obviously just clearly more tech sized Um and they did tease at some point. They don't have this unit yet That was literally something that was teased there Uh of the of the archers so Or they're they use weapons that they don't have access to yet Well, you just got to take this one guy send him back to the home base right have him train everybody Like here's what I think. Okay. Here's the head cannon, right? Okay, this guy This guy right here that's on screen this archer dude Like a couple of the souls that got stuck in him were archers Right, and so he just one day went Wait a minute. What if I just like Made of what if we just like made a bow because they talk in we's right when they talk because they're they're we or whatever What if we just made a bow and then he goes out he gets some bones from the bone mason Right, he makes up some arrows, and then he just like shows up to work with this weapon They're all like what what what is what are you doing? He's like no, no, this is this is better Look, and then he just like shoots something and they're like Whoa, whoa Whoa revolution happens in the technology of the of the obr legions They're like this guy. He's got an idea get him get him up there You know get him up to caddy crows Yeah Yeah, we've got 750 000 souls here in this army. Just there's one of them. That was an archer It just might happen see I'd say it only picked people who were like pikeman and spearman and stuff like that up to this point Up till now.   I don't even need a bow string that if we if we get bow OBR if we get bow if we get bow baddies At some point right Then the call for chariots is going to be deafening Yeah, okay. It's the inevitability because people will then be like we're one unit away boys We're almost there Yeah from from like the core of what tomb kings were So there you go Uh, yeah I would say it would be kind of weird if they were to just throw this one thing in there and then never revisit It's almost like we're just gonna give you a little taste We've already done all the sculpting to show what how to make a bow and bow We might as well, right? We got one. Let's just run it another couple hundred times. Yeah We have the technology for bow BR Yeah, I like uh, David Campbell in the chat who said sigma sigmar stole all the archers for chute castellists It's why there's no skeleton archers. Yeah, that makes sense that checks out. Yep It's just a game of kickball where they're picking sides and he just grabs all the He's just real quick archer archer archer. Those are all mine. Those are mine now Oh, man, uh, yeah, I'll buy I'll buy this and I hope it's actually a It's a rarity, but I hope it's actually a good unit in the army for ages sigmar. I have a little bit of hopes Um, especially since there's a name dude attached to it is one of those Yeah, where it's like man in his in his squad kind of things Um, that means you can only take one of these in your army. I hope it has some some good Assets to the army that don't currently exist Yeah, if he is a good hero That has like a good command ability That's all you need right because these guys get picked when they have like either a good spell So like grass rack, right who has this good universally interesting spell Or whatever like if there's just like if the capability they bring Is such that they can basically perform Something that you would want in the army anyways And you can get them for about the same price as getting the hero like then okay Right, or if they have something slightly unique like if he's a good hero uh, and like there are There are multiple good underworlds warbands. It's the rarity. It's the minority, but it exists, right? like there's grass rack there's uh the Uh morgue weight right in in the dock Probably a couple others. I'm not thinking of but you know, there's like there's not many but there are a few Uh, isn't the Beastman one. Yeah, that's grass. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Okay. Yeah, because he has like just a generic plus one to hit spell He can fire off Here's a new design space that I would love to see them work with here is the the problem with uh Hero on foot. It's not a monstrous size Is that they strictly just tend to underperform in this game? Uh-huh. Uh-huh. But if if he can put out respectable damage, maybe give some kind of benefit to those around him or even his squad in general But he strictly has The extra boost of hit points and defenses of chewing through the dudes with shields Right. He's suddenly he suddenly becomes something that we can have a kind of a single model hero actually be good Um on the table because he's surrounded by his bank hit points. Yeah, exactly if he's got those albedo wounds. Yeah, yeah Yep, I agree. Um to me The like it's a it's he is a super striking character And it's like it This whole warband is going to turn on him. That's it, right? Like that's it If the if the hero's good, which model-wise he's great He's amazing If he actually gets some rules, then you're going to see this guy show showing up. So, okay Yeah, if he's got like five attacks Threes and threes negative one run three damage.  Just to further Polish my soul Yeah, this 30 foot club that's six feet around Still going to be damaged too But but but disapproving axe man here. He'll have a three damage chopper Yep, right You don't want him like the thing is if he chops in the middle of that axe, there's a big circle He could just like miss you that sounds like a d6 damage to me All right So then there was all the 40k stuff, which obviously we're not going to talk about in Tremendous detail because this is more we do aos here, but you know, it is what it is These little caudor dudes these guys look cool There's a lot of them that would make fun little aos conversions or could be cool stuff Like they're neat if we ever get the order of azir like flagellants and and you know religious fanatics Then yeah, I'm all about these guys You can go and steal them and just take their gun hands off and put in like flagellant weapons and boom bang You've got a you got a winner on your hands Uh, so that's fine. You know, they're cool That's a good point. I hadn't thought about order of azir, but they are a great kind of canvas for those for sure Yeah, if we ever get that army, which we should get like that should happen Then uh, then that'll happen right then then that's an easy these are like these are just conversion fodder ready to happen for that for that That army I wanted I wanted to touch on something just real quickly. Yeah, if you look at the what's in the box picture yes Um in the middle of the right it says 25 barricades and objectives I could be wrong here vince, but it looks like the old games workshop painting crew Might have been using a little bit of oils or enamels in this weather in here Oh, it's hard to say That doesn't look to me just like strictly Acrylic paints put on like they typically do their rusty doors and stuff, but sure I could be wrong, but man There's there's ways that that stuff is collecting and streaking down that i'm thinking It might be uh innovating here Uh, well, it could also be done by the the forge world team because a lot of this a lot of this stuff gets done by them Or specialist games team or whatever they're called now and that team does do a lot more weathering into the traditional like scale model weathering stuff So that would make more sense So there you go. But yeah, I uh, I'm all for it. Let's have everything not look like it just rolled off the assembly line Uh, yeah, so skitari guy. That's cool. Adeptus mechanicus Cool book. I don't really care too much Uh neat tank. I like tanks tanks are cool Sisters are pretty cool tank pretty cool tanks are cool Uh, yeah cool looking tank. Uh, good animation for it as always. I like the stained glass thing They've been using for the the sister's animations. I think that's a good look. Uh, so yeah, big giant tank Cool, uh, right on Then and then we get these guys. So this this is a really fun video I like the cave drawing thing with the orcs, but let's talk about my new unit of Uh, let's talk about my new unit of gore gruntas Exactly Just how excited I am about these guys Uh, so and how how little work it would actually take to turn these into gore gruntas Like there's very few bits that you have to completely overhaul and take off Yeah, exactly. Like these guys are ready to go armor plates look fine The orc itself is fine. Like there's Uh, basically like maybe the little goblin dude needs a different weapon and That's it. I think that's it.  Yeah, these dudes look like yeah, the squig gruntas the the squig pigs however you want to say it Uh These guys are awesome. I saw this. I was like, oh my god. I'm so excited for this Because you know is the question is can you ever have Too many gore gruntas for your iron jaws army? And the obvious answer is no I've already used other models before like some of my gore gruntas are on the birds Uh, the like the the burb the big uh, the big burbs from the vanguard Wing of a os or whatever, you know from the storm cast And so I love mixing up different mount types, you know, uh of this kind of stuff I think it's I think it's fun to have different mount types as as your mounts in a os because that's what the mortal realms brings us When you look at the art of the mortal realms and that shows up in a lot of the books or in soulbound People are always writing like weird crazy things, right? Uh, and and we just like That's what we need. I like that. That's one of the cool things to me, right? Uh, so yes, this dude is sweet He is going to be a gore grunta and and uh, hey woe said he the mount needs more armor The orc needs more armor base needs more armor weapon needs more armor To be an iron jaw you may be right there. Fortunately enough. I do have some extra Orc plates because of things I've used so I have like from bits and stuff I've collected so it'd be very easy for me to slap some extra work Shoulder iron jaws shoulder pads and stuff like that on him and we're ready to rock so Uh in in the video some of them looks like they have like robot legs So you might have to get a little creative there Uh, fortunately enough if you if you ever collected Brutes, okay, you got peg legs that you may or may not have used I I ever used the peg legs on the actual on my brood.  There you go So, yeah, I'm excited. I haven't like oftentimes I'll say like oh, that's a cool 40k model that you could sort of convert and bring in But I don't usually want to go through the effort because it's not for an army I love but in this case. I'm like nope. I'm in I'm in like these guys. This is great. We're fine Yeah, and they did in that the kind of the wall painting stuff They had a lot of very distinct looking models or you know drawings of models on there that this isn't gonna be It's gonna be a whole tribe. So yep I'm in for that. Yeah the the all sort of I think we're yeah, there you go When you get the squig pig riders and all that kind of stuff. So uh, very fun Uh, yeah, so that's kind of it. It was a good reveal show today We got some fun stuff Yeah So I uh, I'm jazzed about it I think that there's a lot of good stuff coming. I'm excited about them. So like grave lords I probably won't get the army. I was hoping for it to be all vampires. Yeah But there's there's still time. It's there's still time for more.  I said probably You could see we'll see what happens. You never know What I mean like It's okay. If I don't like I will end up having a death army out of this John because if The soul like grave lords don't grab me Then it's just gonna be smash bat all day, right? And I've got the new Uh, I've got the new varglic or whatever he's called to be my smash bat model. So The strictly superior model for the smash battery That needs to happen. So a death army comes out of this one way or another. So I'm I'm happy camper. That'll be a great project Uh, excited for crag knows and what he's going to bring to the destruction world And uh, yeah, the grave lords, uh cool model. That's what I'll say there I was once again another Reveal show went by without giving us a damn release date for for the cursed city Um, I I'm thinking they're gonna probably try to have that release date Close to when they want to have soul like grave lords probably within a month of each other Maybe even because they're so tied together from a perspective of rules Maybe i'm just being optimistic or I just assumed by now we'd have that release date It feels like they've got to be kind of close Right like And by that I mean in my mind The cursed city is probably april Right like that. We know teclas is next week I'm thinking probably april. It's a lot of boxes probably mid april, right? And because they want to get enough volume out there. I hope they printed enough of this I hope they they had to realize cursed city is gonna sell like gangbusters had you right I gosh, I hope so if that's a pain to get Yeah, that will make me very sad So I assume like early to mid april for for uh for cursed city And then probably may Right for uh because because with broken realms teclas Going on pre-order next week one assumes that the rest of the lumeneth stuff will be not far behind Yep, right So like you're gonna get because obviously that's gonna have a bunch of rules For lumeneth stuff. So if broken realms teclas goes on pre-order next week Either that means the rest of the lumeneth do at the same time or they're like the week after Right, they're not gonna be like, hey, here's here's a bunch of new lumeneth rules Now wait a month and a half one would hope One would hope to get back to play them if we've learned anything about the release schedule of lumeneth realm lords It's that we know nothing. It's that we know you know nothing. Yes. I I do agree. They I've said that before and they uh They really thrown me for a loop with lumeneth. It's been a weird army in its release schedule Uh, the lumeneth have eaten the sort of pandemic Problem worse than any other army. So yeah, they sure have but Uh, but yeah, so I I'm hoping for grave lords being like an early to mid-may release That would make sense like basically a month away from cursed city, which seems fine, right? Yes You can get your cursed city. You can get painting like there's plenty of stuff in there for to keep you busy Uh until like over a month and then boom drop the new spgs And you're good. You're good. And you get some time with your Uh, the new underworld's vampire team too. Yes, those will come first And so I decided I decided the magic number is three. I'm ordering three boxes of those vampires because There's no way I'm not going to find awesome uses for them in that army or just to paint or for Competition painting or whatever absolutely. I need those vampires in multitudes.   I mean when you look at the next three months like q2 Into like maybe early july It is packed homie right The underworlds war bands that we've talked about like the the vampires and the everything else right the lizards and so on That just came out and so on You've got cursed city. You've got the lumineff part two. You've got three broken realms books. We know about you've got aos three You've got the grave lords like holy moses This is going to be an intense q2 for aos for sure Prepare your wallets They're like, okay. We haven't dominus last year. How do we Try to stay on board for our board of directors, right? I know we release just everything just For aos And that's just what we know about there's stuff that we don't even know about yet That's going to probably be and q2 early q3 too.  All right Will john, thank you so much, buddy. This was great. Appreciate you hanging out with me Thanks for having me. I'm sure we'll do it again. And once once we get uh, the soul bright grave lords book in hand I'll be back to show you. You will be back.  It'll be a great time Yes, I'm going to have a list where it's all minimum unit size about 17 units of 10 zombies You just have to go through them one at a time Yes, I I look forward to that nightmare for all of you out there watching. Thank you so much Give it a like If you didn't already liking it helps other people find the reaction show and other people find the channel It's so easy to do you just click a button and we thank you for it Look how simple that is obviously subscribe if you haven't already but john, thank you again Thank you If there's anything you feel like we missed or you're excited about drop that down in the comments below But as always guys, thank you so much We'll see you next time