The following is a presentation of TFNN. The morning markets kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good morning, everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien, company live from TFNN Wednesday morning, just after 9 a.m. Eastern time. We got some jobs numbers from the ADP this morning, a weak number, giving the markets a boost, a little bit of a reversal of the trends we've seen recently. You have yields pulling back a bit. We have markets in positive territory. The S&Ps, boy, it was looking dire last night, 3 in the morning, 42, 35. You were negative by about 30 points on the pre-market session, and just like that, we are 40 points. You almost were 50 points off of that price level. We get a bid, and interesting, that the market was already higher coming into the economic numbers. So, yeah, we're up by 10. The market jumped a bit on that jobs number, but basically holding on to the reversal that we got from 3 in the morning, we get yields reversing as well. Markets in positive territory, S&Ps up by 10. That's about 2.10 percent, NASDAQ 100, up right now, 57 points. You're almost 200 points off of the low of last night, NASDAQ 100, up 4.10 percent. The Dow, up 2.10 percent, just in line with the S&P, and the Russell, up 2.10 as well. So, Dow, Russell, S&P, up 2.10 percent, you get the NASDAQ 100, up 4.10 percent. Crude backing off. Now, let's jump to the dollar index before we jump around. Dollar index, you talk about a pullback here, okay? You had been up to 107.34 yesterday, you were at 107.20 earlier this morning. That correlates to the market action there, man. We finally get a pullback, and boy, it's a pullback. You're talking about 700 ticks, right? 700, in terms of going from 107.20 to 106.50, basically, in the dollar index, and you jump over to Crude. You got Crude backing off at 87.68. You jump over to the gold contract this morning, gold for the reaction that you're getting in that dollar index, just chopping around at 18.42. You were at 18.30 yesterday. You were at 18.31 earlier this morning. So, as we've seen the dollar index pullback, right, we've seen gold go from 18.32 to 18.42. You could argue that you might want to see a bigger move with the type of the move that we got in the dollar index, and we get to the main event, yields. Quite a reversal. We almost got a 105 handle, man. We almost got a 105 handle on the 10-year, I mean, yesterday during the program. Look, we were at 107.10 before we got a little sell-off towards the end of the program, and we almost just got a 105 handle, a full point and a half almost to trade it lower, but boy, you saved yourself. You're only back to where you were just about yesterday. Right now, you're talking about a 10-year yield, 4.74%, I think we were up to, what, 4.83, 4.84 was the high, something like that. You've got the 2-year right now at about 5.09. Now, check out the move on the yield curve. The 2-year, 5.09, we're down almost 6 basis points, mammoth move. Let's jump to the 2-year for a moment. That is a mammoth move on the 2-year, folks, because to get a move on yield, that's 6 basis points. On something that has a duration that is much shorter, like a 2-year, you have to have a dramatic move for that yield to move over a 2-year basis. 102 to 108, you see the mammoth move as it gets back, basically, yesterday, Monday, and we've been talking about this 2-year backing things up to, yeah, let's put it on a 10-day, does that get us back? It does. That is Fed Day Wednesday. So, look where we are now. The 2-year, back to 108, we were at 101.15 before the Fed, two weeks ago today, actually. Yeah, two weeks ago today, the chairman spoke, rates are going to be higher for longer. We got the dot plot recalibrated a bit. We're looking for one more hike, and next year, they recalibrated things to show that their interest rate was probably looking at about half a percentage point higher than the market. All of that combined to quite the reversal. But look at the give back, just that quick, man, from this morning. We're at 103, we'll call it. We're at 10109 right now. We're only at 101.15 before that move. So quite a reversal, and let's get into the main event. Now, the main event this morning, but here's what to consider, okay? You're going to hear a lot of rhetoric about the jobs number giving the market a reprieve. It already got the reprieve from three this morning, okay? In Europe right now, you've got the DAX up about half a percent, you've got Calc roll up about six tenths percent over in Asia, markets in the red in pretty dramatic fashion. You've got the Nikkei down 2.3 percent. You've got the Hangsang off eight tenths percent, okay? Shanghai barely in the positive. But this started at three in the morning. You jump over to the Euro-US dollar. As we continue this wrap up, before we get to those ADP numbers, Euro-US dollar, there's three in the morning, right? You get a move from 104.50, we'll call it. The low there, 104.50 exactly. Up to 105.20, just mammoth move. So that's what correlated. The move has held since we got the ADP numbers at 8.15 this morning. Let me find it. There it is. There's your volatility, the volume bar, of course, 8.15. And we're right back to where we were before that bar. So this move, just holding on the equities, you do jump to the 10-year and we are a bit higher, okay? So the equities, the indices, right where we were at about 8.15 coming into the ADP jobs number. Meanwhile, we have had yields pull back a bit, okay? But look where we were at three in the morning. Three in the morning, you go from 106 basically to 106.25. So you move 25 ticks coming into that number and we're only five ticks away now. I'm trying to emphasize that we're going to go over the ADP numbers. You're going to get a lot of focus ahead of the jobs number on Friday, rightfully so. But this move is its own move outside of that economic number, okay? All right. Now, let's get into that number. Where are we? Here we are. U.S. firms added 89,000 jobs. These are private payrolls from ADP, fewest since early 2021, weaker than all estimates, annual pay growth for workers continued to ease. Continuing to ease. That's going to be happening. Private payrolls, 89,000, they put up 180,000 in August. Where are they? Leisure and hospitality, man, right? Financial activities a bit higher, 17,000, monthly change in employment, construction, higher by 16,000 on the negative side, manufacturing, trade and transportation, professional business services down 32,000. Now this is all ahead of the jobs number on Friday for pay numbers, okay? We've been talking about these, still big numbers, man. If you stayed in your job, you saw almost a 6% median pay increase in September from a year ago. If you changed jobs, you got almost a 9% increase in the median rise in annual pay. Both of those numbers, the weakest since June of 2021, no, even longer, yeah, even longer, yeah, about two years. And large firms with at least 500 employees cut 83,000 jobs, second largest decline since early in the pandemic, all regions except the South added workers in September. And we get the non-farm payroll number on Friday, they're looking for 155,000 in September. And we got that jobs number, they talk about the jobs number, there's a lot of rhetoric about that jobs number and how it might not be the most accurate representation of what's going on in the economy. Nonetheless, the market reacted yesterday, right? And you're getting a little bit of a recoil today, but yeah, we're still talking about some lofty yields. And I pulled it up this morning. Five-year ladder this morning, 5.16% your yield over that five-year ladder, 5.16% the yield on a five-year ladder risk-free, FDIC insured. You got to talk about it because it's out there, 5.16%. I imagine that may pull back a little bit tomorrow if yields persist where they are today. But stay tuned, folks. We're coming back. Talk to our man, Kevin Inks from the Schwab Network Fast Market. We'll be right back. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then rocket equities and options report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities and Options Report today with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. For all the details and to start your subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN, educating investors. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything, from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. 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TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years, with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours, the Tiger's Den. Available to all tigers and tigers for just $1 for the year. There's no cash or added costs when you join our Community of Traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back, folks. It's going to be an interesting day in the markets. As it's Wednesday, we're coming into the non-farm payroll numbers on Friday. Quite the reaction yesterday to the jobs number. We got that number at 10 o'clock right when I got off the air, and kaboom! Markets traded lower in dramatic fashion, man. You go from $43.15 down to a price point yesterday. We were at lows of $42.52. You're talking about almost 65 points off of where we were trading. As I enter the program on those job numbers, your job openings going up, indicative, I should say, of a strong economy. What do you get this morning? You get a weak ADP number. You're still talking about wage growth of 6% in the same job, 9% if you're changing jobs. Those are waning a bit, but boy, it's just like inflation when they say it's waning a bit. We got a long way to go. You still have people, if you change jobs, making 9% more than you were making the previous year. Think about that. If times were really tough, man, you're not allowed to just pop to a different job and make 9% more than you were making a year ago. If times are that tough, the median pay increase is not almost 6% right now. It's easy to say that those numbers are going down as in they're decelerating, right? It doesn't mean they're going down at the rate that we need them to go down to. They are lower, but here are those numbers, 6% staying in the same job, 9% changing jobs, dramatic numbers. We get wage numbers tomorrow, excuse me, Friday, we get wage numbers in the non-farm payroll number. One of the numbers that people are looking at in a big way as well. What are we going to talk about? Let's see what we got pulled up here. I've got a few good articles to talk about this morning with some of the action going over. We could talk about bonds. Let's talk about rates as we're talking about a 30-year mortgage rate, top 7.5% for the first time since the glory days of 2000. Higher rates send MBA mortgage-backed asset home purchase index to the lowest since 1995. 30-year fixed rate has climbed 32 basis points in four weeks. That's just in four weeks. These things, it just keeps going, man. 7.53% for the week ended September 29th. That was report out today. The index of home purchase applications fell 5.7% to 136.6%. The lowest level, there it is on the bottom part of this chart. We'll blow it up since 1995, man. This one only goes back to 2020. Look at these mortgage rates, man. What are we talking about? Look at how it dips under three, right? I mean, you had a long time to refinance it anywhere between, even call it under four, right? A long time, man. And boy, I mean, we had a lot of technical traders out there. The trend is not your friend here. OK, mortgage rates are going up, man. If you're a momentum trader, this trend has not reversed in any way. And applications are going to run hand-in-hand with that, all right? I mean, it doesn't mean you don't have to be a rocket scientist to take a look at a longer term chart and understand why. Now, it's remarkable. This is the 30-year. OK, the 10-year does not go back that far. The 10-year only goes back to 2002. We got a little 103.20 out here. The way we're dropping, folks. Nothing's saying we can't hit there. And what I keep talking about on this program, and it was a lot easier to talk about, actually, right? I mean, we started having this conversation, maybe at the beginning of last month, beginning of September or so, when you had the 30-year at 121, we're now at 111. And the point I was making was at 121, that's only about 35 days ago, you're basically buying at highs in the 30-year anytime before 2008. Now that's changed to at 111. But still, I'm going to put a chart, I'm going to put, check this out, OK? I'm going to put a line on here of where we're trading at right now in the 30-year. And this is the entire 30-year trading range. It's the trading range for the 30-year bond, OK? The entire trading range for the 30-year bond from the years 1996 to 2008 over a, 12-year period, you're near the upper boundary, OK? And boy, if you want to back it up from the period of 2003 to 1995, and that's as far as it goes back, it's going to be even worse when you go below that, OK? You start getting 80s-error inflation in this chart, and you're really going to look like you're still buying at the highs here. So context is important in everything as you go forward. Quite a reversal. And yeah, bonds are going to be in focus, man. Look at this momentum, right? I mean, we had a channel line at one point on a short-term basis in the year 2022.  Let's see on Fibonacci level where we got to. Yeah, look at that, man. Those 3A2s, right? It looked like it. You break out of the channel line, you get to a 3A2. And if this is an E to B, C to D, man, and where can you start this, right? Where does the trend start? Let's just say we started in March of 2022. You go from 160 and a 117. What's that, $43? Boy, that would take you to 90. So check it out, right? That's just your A to B from March of 2022 to October of 2022. You get a 3A2 retracement, and then you form the C point at about 134. Brings you to about 91 if you get that full extension. And where is 91, man, right here, right? I hadn't even done that before. And that's just the A to B, C to D. You see it on a longer-term basis. All right, now that might not be the natural A point of that acceleration, but that's almost the most conservative if that's your B point right there, right?  You could say your A point's at 167 instead of 160. You add 7 to that, and that's bringing down to 84, which would be below where you were trading at in 1994. Wild stuff across the board, no matter what. But mortgage rates are up to say the least. Okay, where else are we going here? Yeah, we're going to talk... Okay, we've got two articles to talk about. No, we'll talk about it right now before the market opens. Let's make sure we'll check in on the markets. S&P up by about 7. Okay, this one is talking about insurance rates. Okay, Wall Street Journal article out when? Earlier this morning. Yeah, out this morning. I was reading it before the program. Homeowners flock to last resort insurance policies. I've been talking about this in the program with citizens. I own a duplex in Tampa, South Tampa, somewhat off Bayshore, not in a flood zone. Okay, so I'm fortunate there where I'm just about a block and a half away from Bayshore but the way that my altitude, the topical nature, I'm high enough that I've got some altitude to my property where I'm not in a flood zone. Okay, so this is not some high risk flood zone property. I'm at like 15 feet in Tampa, which for Tampa folks, if I have trouble for a flood, man, Tampa would really be in trouble because it's such a low lying Bay area. I'm pretty high, especially for where I am in South Tampa. But I've talked about that it's a duplex. Each side is about 800 square feet, total square feet, 1,590 square feet. Each side is a two bedroom, one bath. So in essence, it's a single family home neighborhood and it's grandfathered in as a duplex. So you can't even rebuild a duplex in this neighborhood. Okay, so it's essentially a four bedroom, two bath, 1600 square foot home in a single family neighborhood, which is somewhat how it's insured. Okay, the private insurance rate that they had that I was paying as my insurance rolled over this year, $7,360. Okay, I may be off by a few dollars, but $7,360. The citizen's insurance rate, the prior the state insurer of last resort, $1,200. Now there's some risks to that, but not when you're going from 7,200 from 1,200. We'll be back for the open. We'll talk some insurance, stay tuned folks. Currencies, commodities, and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity markets across the globe, which is why it's a great time to try out Teddy Kegstad's Tiger Forex report. Teddy Kegstad breaks down the Forex markets every Monday using his 30 plus years of experience as a trading veteran of futures, Forex, stocks, and options. 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Teddy Kegstad breaks down the Forex markets every Monday using his 30 plus years of experience as a trading veteran of futures, Forex, stocks, and options. Teddy releases his weekly Tiger Forex report every Monday morning with coverage of all the major currency pairs, including the Dollar Index, the Euro Dollar, Pound Dollar, Dollar Swiss, Dollar Yen, as well as many more, and he also has weekly coverage of the crude oil market and the 30 year T-bonds as they both influence Forex markets tremendously. When you sign up for the Tiger Forex report, you also gain instant access to Teddy's 60 minute webinar archive he just hosted, Forex strategies, and fundamentals what is behind the Tiger Forex report. For all the details and to start your 30 day Tiger Forex report subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN educating investors. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. 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Just one second, folks, welcome back. We're back for the open. I'm communicating as I'm doing this. We get the markets positive by five. I'm jumping into it. One moment, I apologize, but this one's an important one. All right, thank you. Okay, we have the markets positive by eight. Let's jump into the 10-minute chart, folks, on the S&Ps. S&Ps positive by nine. Nasdaq 100 positive by 56. Dow positive by 49. The Russell positive by three. Let's check in on yields as we kick off the trading day right now. The tenure, up by eight ticks. We were just above 107. Little bit of a pullback right now as yields are in focus and we're gonna talk a little bit of insurance. So this one's out from the journal this morning. Bunch of cool information in here, but I don't think it does a perfect job of accurately representing what is going on as somebody that's been dealing with this myself. So as I mentioned, right? I have a duplex. It's a 4-2 home for 1,600 square feet, 7,300 bucks, folks. I bought this property in 2013 or 2014. 2014, I think, I bought this property. I mean, you're talking about up until four or five years ago, I think the insurance was like $1,400 a year, okay? It went up to 18 and went up to 23. It went up to 24, it went up to 36 and then boom, it went up to like 72, okay? So I go to citizens and you have to almost fight with these agents for them to get you a citizens quote because they're not getting the same compensation as an insurance agent going to the insurer of last resort as that they are going to a private insurance company. So a lot of them say they don't even offer it. Either way, find the right agent. Okay, this is in Florida. They talk about what's going on in California. There's stuff going on in Texas as well. We're not the only state, but boy, I understand what's going on in Florida because it personally impacted me. So I go to citizens and you're talking about $1,200, from $7,200, okay?  I'm saving $18,000 to $20,000. I can buy myself a brand new roof without even insurance at that. I can buy two roofs practically at that price. Over three years, the type of money you're saving, okay? So they have some anecdotal people in here that they're talking about, okay? But this is the quick, you're talking about a California fair plan and then they have the Florida citizens. So the California number is in green. The Florida number here is in, we'll call it gold. These are last resort plans, okay?  And listen, to qualify for citizens, and I'm gonna try and find this out at the next break. They should have more information in here about the pure facts of what it takes to qualify for citizens, the type of differences that you're seeing and the policies that the private insurers are offering. I am not in a flood zone, okay? Now, what this article also talks about is, a lot of times the people who are going onto these last resort plans are the people who are the highest risk, right? Cause private insurers don't wanna insure them. There's less of a market for the highest risk policies. Therefore, those policies most likely to go into those last resort plans, but that's not the case everywhere, man. Florida has quite a deal going on, which is why, since 2018, you've seen a million people get added, a million. Now that's the number of policies, folks. I think there's only 23 million people in Florida. Let's see, 21.78, yeah, and 2021. So we got 23 million people in the entire state. And meanwhile, we've added a million extra policies. Now those policies are gonna probably include two, three, four people, and in certain instances, even more on some levels, okay? California has accelerated as well, but nothing to the degree of Florida, especially when you look at how big California is, okay? And as I said, I understand Florida a lot more than I understand what's going on in other states cause I've been living it, okay? Now, they talk about it here, the surging number of last resort policyholders who by their nature tend to be higher risk. And that's true when I'm telling you in Florida, it's not the case, okay? I have a property that is not in a flood zone. I think I'm in the second zone, but boy, there's a dramatic difference in being at a 15 feet foot elevation versus being on the shore in a flood zone, okay? There's so many houses that are in flood zones in that first zone of zone A, whatever they call it. They're calling it a slow motion train wreck. Well, that's that one, that one I agree. Insurers are concerned they'll have to pick up the tab if the California fair plan can't meet its claims. Now this is where things get real, man. You know there's a possibility, okay? That eventually we might have a storm. We've been very fortunate in Florida so far this year, but that's not always gonna be the case. So here, Florida in particular, Floridians with citizens policies could get hit with a surcharge of up to 45% of their premiums if the plan is wiped out by a big storm. Here's the kicker though, folks. I just told you the numbers. 45% of my premium would be like a $500 surcharge on top of my $1,200 policy, bringing me to $17 to $1,800 for my premium. And meanwhile, the private insurance rate for my property was $7,360. Bananas, okay? And what I think is so unfair is that this is where you get some of the quotes. Policy holders are much better off being with a private insurance company than citizens, not only for better coverage, but to escape the potential tax that can happen. And that's a Florida, a former Florida insurance regular. Well, Lisa Miller, I would agree on many occasions that actually the market is so out of whack right now that you can get dinged with a 50% premium and I'm still saving 75% off of what I pay for private insurance. Now there's a couple differences there. I have a back shed area, external standing entities are not covered as much to their differences, okay? I am not an insurance professional. I'm not an insurance broker. Contact your insurance broker in a big way, okay? There are differences in these policies and in order to qualify for citizens, the private rate has to be X percentage above where you'd be paying. As in, you're only able to qualify for citizens if the private insurance alternative is X percentage above where you're just, they feel at least that you're getting priced out of the market which is why it is that last resort. Now, the politicians got to solve this, right? Well, how do they solve it? Well, one thing is that maybe citizens shouldn't be as cheap because maybe they're really not covering the insurance rate for a property in Florida right now. State lawmakers and regulators going back to the article are taking steps to try and reverse the influx into last resort plans by moving policy holders back into private home insurance policies, okay? You have California's dealing with this as well. They have wildfire risk, has threatened the ongoing stability of the plan. Texas is mentioned, okay? Texas Windstorm Insurance Association which covers wind and hail losses for certain coastal properties, charges homeowners 20% less than the rate needed to cover the underlying risks. An report showed, an official report showed but the plans board appointed indirectly by the governor voted to keep rates unchanged the fourth time in the past five years. There has been no increase, why? Because politicians control the rates on certain plans. Now listen, this goes deeper, okay? But in certain areas they do, but check out how hard it is to get people off the rolls. In this spring, the state offered 31,000, this is Texas they're talking about, okay? Of its 200,000 policy holders, the chance to switch to a private insurer and just 46 people accepted the offer. I don't think it was a good offer if they only got 46 out of 32,000. Florida also charges insufficiently high rates to cover the risks in its last resort plan. We're gonna talk a little bit more about this folks. We're also gonna talk some Amazon when we come back, all right? We'll talk some insurance, we'll talk some Amazon. Talking about using algorithms to raise prices shouldn't be too surprising. Markets positive by 50. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. 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In the Tiger's Den, you can look over the shoulders of Tom O'Brien and the other tfnn hosts while they analyze charts during their live Tiger TV programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas, interact with other tigers and tigeresses as they share trading ideas, news analysis, and discuss the market action all trading day, even at night and on the weekends. The Tiger's Den at Discord is accessible on mobile or tablets as well. So it's always at your reach. To sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders, just visit the front page of tfnn.com. This program is brought to you by Vista Gold, traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. Back folks, we have markets in positive territory. We have the S&Ps up by 12 points right now. We jump over to the dollar index. We got the dollar index pulling back from the highs of yesterday, 107.34 yesterday. We're backing off to 106.68 to talk about some of the market action. Let's jump over to our man, Teddy Kegsdatt. Folks, you can read Teddy's Tiger Forex report. He puts it out new issues every Monday with updates throughout the week when warranted. You can check it out under the newsletter tab at tfnn. You can subscribe for $97, comes with a 30 day money back guarantee. Teddy's got some great insights in there as he breaks down the market action. And of course, don't forget about the webinars. Teddy is done. We have the archives available. He's got two up there already and we got some more planned in the future as well, but you can reach those right under the services tab whether you're talking about capitalizing on time with calendar stock option spreads or Japanese candlestick pattern stock and option strategies with our man, Teddy Kegsdatt. With that, let's jump into it. Teddy Kegsdatt, good morning. Good morning, Tommy. Boy, where do we start off, man? I guess, how about some yields? Why not? Because they're driving some of the action at least. We got some good action today, as usual, when we talk to you, but what do you think about the yield conversation, man? A little bit of a pullback today, but boy, yesterday, quite the acceleration. Yeah, well, we're definitely pounding these new lows in the bond and tenure markets, that's for sure. But this is what we've been talking about for the past few months. We're trading at levels that we should be at right now. Right now, the interest rate market is looking for fair value. I think it's starting to find it. So I think that the media sensationalizes things and the public may not like where things are at, but that's because they're accustomed to a fantasy that was a complete illusion.  Yeah, it seems like there's been a dramatic repricing. And I'm not sure it's slowing down just yet. We got quite a reversal from three in the morning last night, but boy, on a longer-term picture, not really that big of a reversal considering where we've been and where we are right now. What do you, do you have an opinion of the tenure in terms of where you think it might head to? I know you talk a lot about the 30 year in the Tiger Forex report as well, but it seems like, you know, everybody loves talking about the tenure. We're hearing people out there saying 5%, mortgage rates going eight, but do you have a number out there for the tenure? Is that just gonna be dependent on where we go with the Fed or do you have an opinion on that one? Well, actually I'm looking at the next couple economic numbers because right now we're starting to stretch the extreme for the yield curve. Okay, it's from the long end to the short end. So are we due for correction? Absolutely. I mean, the volatility we've had over the past two weeks, let alone the past four to five weeks, has been pretty, pretty extreme, you know? So when you start to push a trend like that, you got to realize that we're in a bull market for yields right now. So we're pushing the highs from the short end to the long end of the curve, okay? So as we're doing this, we should have some sort of pullbacks, you know? Now we're already, we already know that expectations are pretty much built in for as how much the Fed is gonna raise rates over the next probably six months, okay? So let's just say that that is somewhat reasonably right, that it's gonna be a quarter to a three quarter point hike over that period, okay? That's pretty much factored into the market consensus already. And once again, we're starting to get to fair value. So can we see a little bit higher uptick in yields over the next like couple of weeks or so? I think it's very possible. I wouldn't say that we should try and pick a bottom. I mean, like over the past two weeks, there's been some good reasons to fade the yield curve and you'd be very hard pressed to try and even get a bounce out of that, you know? So I wouldn't try and catch a falling knife with it. I do think that we're gonna see a little bit of a retraction in yields, you know? I mean, you gotta realize we're coming off of the end of third quarter. Now we're into the beginning of fourth quarter. October, we're gonna see what happens with the equity markets, you know? I mean, but right now I think you have, all these markets aren't extreme. Gold has been tanking. Oil finally is getting a little bit of a pullback. Obviously yields are hammering, you know, through new highs, you know? And I think that that trend is gonna continue. I mean, look at the dollar, how strong it's been.  Should we have a pullback? Absolutely. I wouldn't get married to any pullback. I'd be looking more for trend trades, meaning like trade the bounces right now, look for that than trying to, you know, go fade the trend. I'd be very careful fading the trend right now just because momentum is so extreme. I appreciate the take and the analysis and I agree with a lot of it. And when you say, you know, fading the trend as in, in the long haul right now we have rates that are going higher and we have a dollar that's going higher. So is that, you know, the trends that you're talking about when you say that? Correct, correct. Absolutely. Right now until we see a reversal of the Fed, I mean, okay, could we set a top in the yields over the next like, even like week or so? Absolutely. I mean, look at how far, look at how far the yields pulled back just over the past six months.   I mean, relatively, I remember it's an inverse relationship, you know, that people thought they keep thinking that's the normal. Well, that rubber band effect is gone, you know? And I think you're going to see less and less of that. So right now, yeah, I would look for the bounces and when you get the bounces, expect a decent pullback in yields, but I wouldn't get married to them. I'd be very cautious, especially like, look at the numbers. And if we still see low unemployment for the next three quarter or three months going into the end of the year, that's not what the Fed wants. They want higher unemployment. If unemployment starts to even look like it's down ticking, well, then you might start to see the Fed lean on, we're going to have a full basis point hike over the next like six months or so, versus just a half a point or so, you know? And then also look at what happened with where the yen is at too. We're at that 150 mark. There's a lot of talk about intervention from the Japanese bank coming in. Is that going to happen? They haven't said anything yet, but they are pushing that level. Is that going to really interfere with the dollar overall? Not too much, you know, in the short run, it probably will with that currency relationship, you know, but if the BOJ does raise rates and if other central banks raise rates, well, it's very good chance that our Fed is not going to stop raising rates. You know, are they going to be the first one to stop? Very possibly will be. But once again, remember, they're looking for certain economic numbers that we really haven't seen a pullback in inflation like they're looking for, you know, and there's certain targets that we're still way off on hitting, you know? And if that trend continues, I think you have to still look at the fact that, hey, you know, a year from now we could be looking at mortgage rates at 10, 11%, you know, I mean, do people want to hear that? No, but that's a reality. And then I can see us pulling back to where we're at right now. I think we're setting, right now, it's resistance. Eventually it's going to become support, the area that we're at right now. Yeah, it's a possibility to say the least, man, as in we're almost at 8% mortgage rates, right? So people better believe that there's some risk to the upside, even though that seems like quite a number. Boy, 8% mortgages seem like quite a number, not that long ago. And we're basically sitting right there. But that's not that inflationary if you look at the levels we're at now. You know, over the past year and a half we've seen a huge jump going from 1% to 8% mortgage or whatever, you know what I mean? Like that's a huge jump. If we go from 8% to 10%, well, that's really, right? Mathematically, it's not that much of a percentage, right? What is funny though is that, and not funny or interesting, I was looking at some of the numbers and we all understand it. But boy, when you're compounding that type of interest over 30 years, right? You start going from an 8 to a 10. The payment that goes with it, you know, it's a bigger dollar jump from an 8% to a 10% increase than it is from a 6 to an 8, obviously, because you're only going from a 6 to an 8, you go from the 8 to the 10. That 2 percentage point is actually adding more, just real dollars to the payment, which it just keeps going, man. Can you hang with us, Teddy, for one more segment, man? Perfect, we'll keep talking about it, folks. I wanted to talk a little bit just about the Euro in there as well. Talk to some crude. We'll come back, we'll talk to our man, Teddy. We'll talk some crude oil to wrap up the program. Stay tuned, folks. We'll be right back. The SOS, Bond's, The South African Rand, as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy-sell recommendations, the Gold Report. New subscribers get a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. Subscribe to Tom O'Brien's Gold Report newsletter now at tfnn.com. 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Go to tfnn.com and hit watch Tiger TV. That's tfnn.com and hit watch Tiger TV. We've got markets in positive territory, S&Ps up by about 12, pretty much where we've been trading for the entirety of the trading session so far. We're talking to our man, Teddy Kegstad. Don't forget to check out Teddy's Tiger Forex report and the trading webinars under the services tab, folks, and I've got to talk a little bit accrued, Teddy. Quite the pullback from the recent highs. Sorry, I'm jumping around my chart right now. We are at $86.72, man. You back it up though. We were at $95 recently. What do you think of the action in crude? Oh, I love it, Tommy. You know, when we talked last week, we were on the highs, you know, and right now we're trading in that area, that 86 to 84 is where I'm looking for the market to pull back and stabilize. And then I think we're going to get a bounce and start heading back up to the highs again. I think that right now the trend is your friend, right? Any type of downside action, I believe, is definitely a correction and a break to buy right now. And especially the area where we're at right now, I would say that, you know, could we hold it for a couple of sessions or maybe even a week? Yeah, we might see some nice digestion. I think we'll chop around and still poke the, you know, test support a little bit. I don't think we're going to get below the $84 area. I think if you, the only way you'd see a turn is if we got back below the, you know, $77 range and I don't think we're going to be anywhere near there for quite some time. I see us stabilizing here around the mid 80s and then starting to poke back up to above $90.95 over the next couple of weeks. Yeah, the volatility is wild, man. And just I have it up on the chart here as you're talking about it, 86.70 right now, that high from August 10th on my chart, $84.89. And then interesting that high back there in April, $83.53. So both those areas potentially an area that it could trade to. Well, Teddy, I appreciate the time as always, man. I appreciate the conversation and we'll talk to you next Wednesday. All right. Sounds good, Tommy. You have a great weekend. You too. Folks, thanks so much for tuning in. Stay tuned. We've got a man Basil Chapman. He's coming up next. We've got live programming today. Don't forget to check out Mr. Peter Bruno with the Wall Street Money Hour. New program live from two till 3 p.m. Eastern time every market day. My dad, Tom O'Brien, he's back in the chair today live from three till four. And yeah, market digesting a little bit of a reprieve. We'll finish it up with yields. There's your tenure right now. We're still positive by 11 ticks. Yeah, well off. Almost a full point off of those lows. You talk about moves, man. Keep your eye on yields. Folks, thanks so much for starting your trading day off. Stay tuned. We've got a man Basil Chapman. He's coming up next. Have a great Wednesday. I'll see you tomorrow at nine.


Colgate Tooth Powder presents Inner Sanctum Mysteries. Good evening, friends of the Inner Sanctum. This is your host, Raymond, inviting you in through the squeaking door. Well, it's so nice of you to come here tonight and help me sit up with the corpse. Such dull company, so cold and stiff, bored with being dead. But all the life seems to have gone out of him. Well, you say you've seen him before. Oh, no, he's not that horror man who plays in pictures, but he does look like him.  Tonight's Inner Sanctum Mystery, Voice on the Wire, is an original radio drama by Robert Sloan and stars Miss Leslie Woods in the role of Geraldine Reeves. It's produced under the direction of Hyman Brown. Use Colgate Tooth Powder. Keep smiling just right. Use it each morning and use it at night. Don't take a chance with your romance. Use Colgate Tooth Powder. Romance. What is romance? Romance is the light on the path of love, but a light so delicate that even a breath may put it out. Even a breath.    I tell you what, brush your teeth night and morning and before every date with Colgate Tooth Powder. Because scientific tests have definitely proved that in seven cases out of ten, Colgate Tooth Powder instantly stops unpleasing breath that originates in the mouth. And let me add, Colgate Tooth Powder is the only tooth powder that offers proof of this fact. And then too, Colgate Tooth Powder cleans your teeth beautifully. No amount of money can buy you a dentist that will clean your teeth more quickly and thoroughly. Remember the name Colgate Tooth Powder with the accent on powder. Don't take a chance with your romance. Use Colgate Tooth Powder. No doubt the telephone is an ingenious invention, but as far as I know, no one has yet been able to commit murder over it, although many people have wanted to. Still, there are worse things you can get on the phone than the wrong number, especially if you happen to call the voice and the wire. On a long, narrow island just off the shore of one of our larger lakes, Mrs. Geraldine Reeves, widow of the late composer David Reeves, lives alone in a gaunt gray shingled house. Only a few hundred yards away are the charred remains of her former home where David was burned to death in a fire just two years ago. It's after dinner now. It is the clock in the hall strikes eight. You've got to get hold of yourself, Geraldine. I can't help it, Doctor. You see, it starts every night. About this time. What starts? The music. David's last composition. I hear it being played on a piano, and the note seemed to come from the old house, the house where David died in a fire. Well, perhaps someone is playing that piece on the piano. Someone on the island. No. No, there's only one other house out here, and those people are away. And the dog. The dog keeps howling all night long. What dog? I don't know. There's no dog on the island, but David and I did have a dog. You remember? He stayed with David the night the fire. He died with him because David was too well to get out of bed. There! There it is again! It's amazing. That's a real dog. Somewhere on the island. Do you think so? Why, of course. Probably some stray got across the bridge or swam over from the shore. Well, you see... Oh, excuse me, Doctor. Certainly. Hello? Yes, speaking. Who is this? Geraldine. The music. The same music. I heard it again. What? Over the phone. Someone's playing it on the piano. It must be some sort of a crime. No, no, no. A man spoke to me. He said I have four hours to live. Four hours to... Here. Let me have that phone. No, it's no use. He's rung off. Well, we might be able to trace the car. Hello, operator. Operator. Somebody's trying to kill me. Hello, operator. Operator. What's wrong, Doctor? I'm afraid the wires have been cut. We'd better get into my car and drive into town, right away. Yes. Yes, it isn't safe for me to stay here another minute. I can't understand it. The motor won't turn over. Somebody must have meddled with this car while we were in the house. Well, try my car, Doctor. I think perhaps I'd better. Is it in the garage? Yes, yes. I'll... Great heavens, it's gone. The garage is empty. The car has been stolen. Now, let's not lose our heads, Geraldine. We're not completely cut off yet. We can't use a car. We can still walk. But it's almost a mile to the bridge, and the road is so dark down along the water. It won't be too dark with a flashlight. We can go down through the woods to the edge of the water and walk along the shore. Oh, wait a minute. What's the matter? I just remembered. David's brother's driving out here tonight. Are they? Yes, and his wife, Laura. They said they'd be here by 8.30. And if we wait for them, they can take us back in their car. What do you think, Doctor? Let's save it and try to make it alone. If we wait right here, perhaps we can watch the bridge and see them coming. They haven't saved Geraldine. What are you staring at? The bridge, Doctor! The bridge! Look! This end of it's been washed out! Oh, Doctor, this is crazy. You're searching for a telephone wire in back of the house that we're seen out here. There's no telling what might happen. Please, please, Geraldine. We've got to find out where that wire was cut and splice it together again. It's our only chance of reaching the police. But it's almost 9 o'clock. We've wasted an hour already. If I'm not out of here by 12... Stop it, Geraldine. Stop it. I'm sorry. I didn't mean to... It's the dog again.  Oh, no. I didn't mean that. I meant the light on the road. There's a strange light on the road. The headlight of a car coming this way. A car? Yes. Quick. Behind the house and stay out of sight. It's turning into the driveway. How could a car have come out onto the island with that bridge? They're getting out. Arvian and Laura. Oh, Harvey. Oh, Harvey. Oh, Harvey. Jerry, what are you doing? Playing hide and seek with us back there? Oh, Harvey, I'm so glad you're here. Oh, everything, everything. But first you've got to tell us how you got here. We just drove over the bridge and on up the road the way we always do. But how could you drive over the bridge? It's been washed out. What? Well, I saw it with my own eyes. You saw it too, didn't you, Doctor? I certainly did. Oh, you must be mistaken. We drove over the bridge not more than two minutes ago. Are you sure you haven't been on the island longer than that? I'm positive. Why? Well, some very strange things have been happening here tonight. Geraldine's life was threatened. The car stolen and mine tempered with. What? What are you talking about? Look, I'll show you. The starter in my car won't even turn the motor over. Here. Hi, George. It's working now. Say, what is this, Jerry? Have you and the doctor been taking a few pills? Did you drink too much wine at dinner? Oh, no, no. Everything you said is true. Even the telephone wires have been... I must be going out of my mind. That is my telephone ringing, isn't it? Yes, of course. Aren't you going to answer it? I'm almost afraid to. Come with me, Harvey. Will you while I do? Sure. Hello? I think it's endless waiting. Why don't the police come? Easy now, Jerry. They'll be here. You only found them a few minutes ago. Something can happen before they get here. I have a gun ready, just in case anything should happen. And I won't hesitate to use it. You have a gun, doctor? Oh, yes. Geraldine gave it to me before you arrived. Oh. Smatter. You trust me with a gun, don't you? Why, of course. Laura, what is it? A face at the window. I just saw a face at the window.  No, I saw it right there. It was the face of a dead man. Quick, Harvey, out the back way. Right. No, no, please don't leave us. We'll be right outside the window. Jerry, I'm afraid. Well, if there's nothing we can do, Laura, they won't be far away. But I... I don't trust Dr. Prizing. You never should have given him that gun. Why not? Because... Because I think he's a murderer. Yes. Don't you remember how he acted at the trial? When you were accused of starting the fire that killed David, he testified against you time and again. Subtly. To make them think you did it. Because he started that fire himself. What on earth are you saying? I'm telling you the truth. During the trial, he saw that he wasn't on the island the night of the fire. But he was. And I can prove it. How? By this cigarette case of his. Here, look at it. You see how it's charred and melted on the side where his initials were? He must have left it in the fire that night by mistake. But he couldn't have. The police searched everything the next morning. They would have found it in the ashes. Not if it wasn't there. He came back for it that same night as soon as he missed it and dragged it out of the fire. He knew it would incriminate him if it were found in his possession, so he threw it into the lake as he drove home over the bridge. And that's where we found it. In the water. The last time we were out here. Oh, Laura, I hope you're wrong. So do I. But if I'm right, we're all in for... Laura! The lights! Somebody turn off the lights! Face our swords! Laura! It was meant to be me, Harvey. Whoever came through that door intended to kill me. Jerry, please. How is Laura, doctor? I'm afraid I can't do anything for her, Harvey. She's passed down. Oh! Laura... Laura, darling. You'd better not touch the body, Harvey. Oh, leave me alone. You've done enough already, doctor Prizing. I beg your pardon. You have a lot of explaining to do when the police arrive, doctor. Now tell them how you ran away from me out there before the lights went out. How you were here in this room when they went on again. Harvey, don't say things you'll regret later on. Just a moment. Where is the cigarette case Laura had in her hand when the lights went out? What cigarette case? You know the one I mean, doctor Prizing. The gold one that was charred in the fire. I hope I'm the faintest idea what you're talking about. I have. And if you're as innocent as you claim to be, you won't mind being searched. Not at all. Go right ahead. I will. Who are you calling, Jerry? The police. I don't understand why they haven't arrived yet. It's almost 10 o'clock. Maybe something's happened to them on the way. Maybe their car broke down. Their car, too? Huh? Nothing. Only it seems as if your car is the only one that works when you want it to. Well, Sergeant. Sergeant, I can't understand why your men aren't here yet. A murder's been committed. Dave, it's music. Prizing now while we're alone. Yes, of course, Harvey. But how will we go? In my car, it just sounds like footsteps in the living room. Prizing must be in there. No, I saw him go outside. He said he wanted to see if he could find the dog. Oh. There's someone in there. I'm going to find out who it is. Be careful, Harvey. You may be standing just outside the door. Yeah, yeah. All right. You stay behind me. Is anybody there? Is anybody in the living room? No. There doesn't seem to be. Don't talk like me, Harvey. Well, Dr. Prizing, you've been standing at this door with your ear to the keyhole? No, not exactly. I thought you were supposed to be outside looking for that dog. I was outside for a while. But I saw someone moving around in here. So I came back. And I got here. Your wife's body was gone. What? Gone? Your daughter's body was gone? I assume that it's gone. It's not where it was on the floor. But how could it? Look here, Prizing. You were alone in this room. And so were you. After I left, wasn't it, Geraldine? Well, yes, now that I think back, he was. Certainly. What's more, Geraldine saw me leave the house. And when I left, the body was still here. After that, I don't know what happened. What are you driving at? Draw your own conclusions. I've drawn mine. Why, you... Harvey, stop it! Stop it! I'm sorry, Jerry. I'll just... The dog again. I can't understand why you didn't find that dog, Dr. Prizing. He must be right out there where the old house used to be. But if you think you can find him, why don't you go? Good heavens, man. What?  On the grounds of the old house! Prizing, you started that fire yourself and you're burning Lara's body and it's a cover-up of your crime. Harvey, where are you going? I'm going to the fire, Jerry. I've got to stop it. I've got to put it off. I'm going to lose my mind if someone doesn't stop these awful things from happening. Won't anybody help us? Easy, Geraldine.  It's part of his plan. Here. Take a sip of this brandy. All right. Thank you, doctor. I... What's the matter? Oh, nothing really. I just don't care for any brandy just now. What's wrong with it? Well, I didn't say anything was wrong with it. I just...  Do you think I'm trying to poison you? I don't know what to think. Here. Give me that brandy. I'll drink it myself. There. Leave me now. I don't believe anyone. Listen to me, Geraldine. I'm the best friend you have in the world right now. You've got to understand that because there isn't much more time. We've got to get away from Harvey while he's still out there. What do you mean? Can't you see?  That's a lie. It isn't, Geraldine. Harvey's the one that's lied to us. He and Laura both. They intended to kill you when the lights went out. But in the darkness, Harvey made a fatal mistake. He thought it was you he was strangling, not Laura. I won't believe that. The truth. They never drove across that bridge at 9 o'clock tonight. They've been here on the island all evening. How do you know? Because we saw that bridge with our own eyes. And I saw it again just five minutes ago. It's still down. You're lying. Come out and see it for yourself. You're just trying to get me out of this house.  Take this gun. If it'll give you any security. Take it. And hold it in my back while we're out there. But for heaven's sakes, let's get away from Harvey and still a chance. All right. Give me the gun. Here. Now you keep in front of me all the time. And I'm warning you.  You see? Harvey and Laura were lying to us. The bridge is still down. All right. They couldn't have come across that bridge. Of course not. The only trouble is, we can't get back over it now either. We've got to get away, Doctor. Now or before we're seen. What about that house at the other end of the island? I'll keep them away. But they might have a boat? Yes, of course they do have a boat. We can row to the mainland. Come on, quick. All right. I have a feeling we're being followed. It's your imagination. Hurry, Geraldine. Hurry. We are being followed, Doctor. Just like the dog you warned. The one that died in the fire. And the man. It's Dave. We've lost them. Lost them in the woods. They can't be far behind. It doesn't matter now. The house is just ahead. But the boat, Doctor. The boat's not at the landing. It must be. Captain, can't you see it isn't? Perhaps it's around and back. No, that side of the house faces the road. We'll have to break in. Hide here until morning. Our best chance is to be inside. But we can protect ourselves. After all, you still have a gun. But I hardly know how to use it. And give it to me. No. You still don't trust me, do you? I don't know, Doctor. But I'm the one who's been threatened. So I really should have the gun. Very well. Wait here. I'll break through the window and come around on the inside. Did you hurt yourself? No. I'm all right. Just wait there for me and I'll unlock the door. Oh, hurry, Doctor. Please hurry. They're on our trail again. Come inside, Geraldine. Quickly. Lock the door behind you. What's wrong, Doctor? Nothing's wrong. We're in luck. There's a phone here. If it hasn't been disconnected. Hello, operator. It's at 11 o'clock. She has one. I won't leave this house. I'm not going to run away any longer. If they're going to kill me, let them come here and do it. Only for heaven's sakes, why don't they do it right away? Why don't they come here and get it over with instead of waiting until 12 o'clock? Geraldine, please. Well, I can't stand it any longer. I'd rather die than go through any more of this torture. I just can't... Sit down for a moment. Relax. And try to ease your mind. What are you doing? Playing the piano. I thought it might relax you. But that melody... You! And I hear at night playing David's music. Playing it right here in this house. Yes, Geraldine. I've rented this house to protect you from David and the dogs. Well, stop it! Stop playing that piece! Stop it! Now, stay where you are. Stay... Don't be afraid. I won't harm you as long as you have that gun. But the gun won't stop David. David's dead. You see? Listen. Right outside the door. And in a moment, he'll be here to take you with him. No! Come back to see you. Despite of everything you've done... Stop!  You started that fire because you knew I was too much of an invalid to get out of bed. Stay where you are! You cheated me, Geraldine. Stop! Your bullets can't harm me now. Nothing you can do can harm me.  Oh, David. David, forgive me. I didn't know what I was doing then. Please, please, believe me. I was sorry soon as I started that fire, but it was too late then. I couldn't put it out. I couldn't...  I'm not lying. I'm not. I can't do everything. Why didn't you tell the police? Because I wanted to live. You'll confess everything now? Yes, David. Yes, I will. If you'll only leave me alone, please. Please. It was my cigarette case Laura found in the water. I'd thrown it over the bridge that same night after I took it out of the fire. Well... I guess that's all we need, Harvey. A full confession with two witnesses. Harvey! Yes, Geraldine. I do look like my brother in this dim light. And the dog Laura's holding outside is the same breed as the one you own. Laura! Laura! Did you say Laura was alive? Very much so, Geraldine. It wasn't hard for me to pretend being dead, with the doctor keeping you away from my body. Then you were all in this together. You forced this confession out of me. Yes, Geraldine. The blank cartridge as Dr. Pricing slipped into that gun of yours really turned the trick. Oh, excuse me. Hello. Oh, hello, Inspector. Yes? It's all right now. You can hook the wires up again. She's told us the truth. And you'd better get to work on that bridge right away. It's still down. What an outrage, all those opportunities for murder and not a drop of blood spilled all night long. Well, some days you can't lay away a corpuscle. Now, a moment where Colgate voices bring you a message. Use Colgate Tooth Powder. Keep smiling just right. Hit each morning and use it at non-happy rate with every date. Use Colgate Tooth Powder. Tell me, do you really mean it when you say, I want to be alone, or are you just pretending that you don't care about dates? Could it be that a little breath of trouble has cooled your romance? A little breath?  A little breath?  Why not brush your teeth night and morning and before every date with Colgate Tooth Powder? Scientific tests prove that Colgate Tooth Powder, in seven cases out of 10, instantly stops unpleasing breath that originates in the mouth. So use Colgate Tooth Powder for all it's worth. Enjoy its exciting cleansing results, too. No amount of money can buy you a dentist that will clean your teeth more quickly or effectively than Colgate Tooth Powder. Remember the name Colgate Tooth Powder with the accent on powder. Don't take a chance with your romance. Use Colgate Tooth Powder. Well, it's time for me to join the moonbeams now. But before I leave under a cloud, before I'm missed, I thought I might pass on the moral of tonight's story. If you must light a fire under your husband's bed, be careful where you drop the ashes. By the way, this month's In a Sancta Mystery Novel is Puzzle for Puppets by Patrick Quenton. Now it's really time to close out their squeaking door until next week when Colgate Tooth Powder brings you another In a Sancta Mystery. So until then, good night. Pleasant dreams. Then each time take 60 seconds more to massage Palm Olive's lovely soft lather onto your skin as you would a cream. Then rinse. This cleansing massage with Palm Olive's lather brings your skin its full, beautifying effect. See what Palm Olive can do for your skin in 14 days. Remember doctors prove Palm Olive's beauty results? Remember another In a Sancta Mystery next Wednesday night. This is CBS, the Columbia Broadcasting System.