Yes, hello. Good evening. Good morning. Good afternoon is the Thanks for joining us. Just want to see if the sound is okay with you guys Great. The sound is good. All right, great. And you can see the And you can see the page. There's only one copper page. You can see the page Very good excellent. All right, it's 303 p.m. London time 10.03 p.m. Singapore time and Yeah, so let's get ready here. All right Very good. Hello everyone. Thanks for joining me. This is Ashraf Liddy and I'm happy to do my first webinar here for tick mill and We're going to focus on the Fed, but we're also going to talk about the ECB decision, which is important Been writing all week that this is going to be a big week I Don't think the Kim Trump Meeting is going to produce anything worthy for the financial markets I personally think that there's going to be at least three or four meetings Additional meetings for anything concrete to go into a lot of things going on in the market So I'm not going to spend time talking about this meeting But really the the Federal Reserve decision is very important. So let's get right to it here and if you have any question regarding what I'm saying right now, please just feel free to to ask it and I will make sure I'll take a look at all the questions I have all the questions here and all the comments and I'll make sure that I'll ask all and I'll Answer all of them. Okay So we're going to go through the key points on the Fed The key points on the ECB My suggested trades for the euro or your repairs for dollar trades and Suggested the ideas for gold indices and yields Okay, so Basically, what do I expect from the Fed? Well, we expect this is going to be the second Interest rate hike of the year The first one was in March and this one is widely expected to see a rate hike but this is widely expected to happen but when the decision comes out at 7 p.m. Wednesday 7 p.m. London time that is Excuse me that is 2 a.m. Singapore time When decision come out, the first thing that the market is going to react to is not necessarily whether they're going to raise rates That is expected to happen, but it's this So I want everybody to understand what I'm talking about here So I want everybody to understand what I'm talking about here. So this is a dot plot forecast. So every quarter So basically March June September and December the there there is there's the press conference and then there's the The dot plot which is basically the forecast by each single member of the Federal Reserve each single member will issue their forecast on GDP growth on Fed funds interest rates Where is it going to be at the end of this quarter the next quarter the next quarter and the following quarter and also their Forecast for inflation what really matters what really control the Forecast or the or the move and what has been what has been controlling the reaction to the market in the last four or in the last three or four Quarterly Federal Reserve decisions meaning those that have a dot plot meaning those that have a forecast okay, meaning in in March in In December in September and in June What has been happening was the The predict was the median not the average the median the median Forecast for the Fed funds rate meaning they take their forecast so they take you know, Williams they take Powell they take You know They take three or four or five other members. They take their forecast They put an average they get the median and they say what is expected to be by the end of the year and when they find out what is expected by the end of the year you can interpolate how you will compare that to June to to tomorrow's rate hike and You can guess so you can interpolate how many more rate hike? So they have done already one they're expected to do to and the plot For the Fed funds is expected to see the number of Fed hikes this year is expected Will it will it show that there's going to be four rate hikes this year meaning two more after not today But after tomorrow after June or will it be? One more one more rate hike meaning three rate hike for the year now I want you to pay attention to what I'm saying is that in In the last meeting in March and even in December in March meeting there was expectations That they're going to raise that they were going to raise Their forecast to expect four rate hikes by the end of the year from three, okay? So in December according to the dot plot they expected three For this year and that's why the market That's why the US dollar fell almost immediately after the December Decision of the Fed reserve in March when the market started to improve and the GDP and and and the US data started to improve and so on and so for the markets will almost sure that The forecasts are going to be shifted to suggest there's going to be four rate hikes in 2018 but guess what they did not do that. They expected They were going to be between three and three point two three point three because it's a number, right? It's interpolated. So it's going to be slightly three okay, and So here is the key now Is it because the data has been improving in the US and GDP growth has been sort of improving and consumption and ISM and the jobs job figures have been improving. There is a very good chance There's a very good chance that the dot plot is going to show four rate hikes So if they do if it's going to show three point seven or three point eight or three point nine If they do the market the US dollar is going to rally is going to rally The question how long and how high it's going to rally and that is going to depend on the next point Okay on the next point which I'm going to show but Before I go to the next point It also depends how much how how many more because like I said, this is this is taken as as an average So if it's going to be closer to three if it's going to be three point four three point five And this is what the headline numbers are going to show this is what the releases are going to show The first thing is gonna say they're gonna say Fed raises interest rates and I'll be tweeting it I'll be tweeting this and I'll be trading but I'll be tweeting it and this is the first thing that I'll say I'll say Fed hikes Fed hikes, which is not on news. No any news, but the main thing that I'll be saying I'll be tweeting which is Which is basically saying how many how many more right hikes for the year? okay, and And then the third point and this is I wanted to pay attention to this is the J Powell who is the new governor of the the new chairman of the Federal Reserve and His press conference which going to come out 30 minutes after the announcement So like I said, the announcement is at 7 p.m. London time or 2 p.m. US or Canada 7 p.m. Wednesday, London time or for a Singapore or 10 p.m. Saudi Arabia That's sorry 9 p.m. Saudi Arabia or 10 p.m. Dubai and The power's press conference is half hour after that. So it's 7 30 p.m. London time and his conference He's going to speak and he's gonna have to ask Answer every single question that he gets and they're very good questions very deep questions from reporters who specialize in covering the Fed Here's what I'm watching and this has been important this has been the new thing since Since March which is watch what he says on the symmetric approach to inflation And I'm gonna talk about this in a bit, and I'm gonna talk about this. I'm gonna explain what this means So we're gonna have so in the last press conference in the last Announcements even when there is no press conference the Federal Reserve said that they're going to have a symmetric approach to inflation symmetric meaning the left side or the Right side or the upside or the downside is similar. What am I talking about? I'll explain to that But before I explain to that I am also watching the reaction to high yielding currencies and specifically the Australian dollar which I have been bullish on and We bought a 75 30 right now. It's at 76 And he didn't do anything after reaching 76 40 or 30 But if he's going to mention the symmetric approach, which I'm going to talk about in a bit then The currencies with a higher yielding interest rate of the higher yields like New Zealand dollar or the Australian specifically the Australian They're likely gonna improve And probably the Canadian and the commodities are gonna improve and here is why This is maybe a golden a golden opportunity. So it could be a great opportunity for gold bulls And I know that many of you are bullish gold and I am bullish gold But it has been doing nothing and when something does nothing it does not mean that it is bearish It does not mean that it is a bad idea. Nobody knows about the timing So here is this The symmetric idea is that the Fed's recent reference to symmetric objective means that it Anticipates inflation to reach the 2% target and it is willing it is willing to allow inflation to go above 2 so 2.2 2.3 2.4 even 2.5 just as it has been willing to allow Inflation last year in the year before to go below the 2% target to as low as 1.4. What happened? The Federal Reserve was raising interest rates when inflation was below target So they were willing to do that and what is the symmetric approach a symmetric approach meaning that Just as they were willing to have some sort of gap below the target They're willing to have some sort of a gap above the target. What does that mean ladies and gentlemen ask yourself this question What does that mean? Does that mean that if the Fed is willing to see inflation slightly overshoot? Are they going to be in a rush to put to to press the break Are they going to be in a rush to raise interest rates? No, they're going to have an approach. They're going to have a a a a a a gradual approach So said in a different way Just as the Fed did not interrupt its campaign of gradual tightening or tightening or raising interest rates when inflation went below target last year and the year before It may not necessarily Accelerate the frequency of rate hikes this year when inflation reaches 2.2 2.3 Now today we had inflation numbers from the us and the dollar did not do much Okay, today we had the cpi and it came out and it was expected to go from two one to two two Anyone to two two but the Fed Does not in the inflation target. It does not Use cpi it uses core pce price index and core pce price index is still below two percent Okay, so it's still below two percent and this is the target that the fed reserve uses now Is everything good so far? Everything is clear or no right? Um, so now so Basically the summary of this is that the fed could be doing three rate hikes could be doing four rate hikes But it is not going to be in a hurry And there is another reason which has nothing to do with inflation Why it is not going to be in a hurry and it's important for you to pay attention As the Fed sells more treasuries if you know that the qe the fed reserve was buying bonds was buying bonds And then it's and then it's it stopped buying them and then it started taper Meaning it started buying less and less and then now it is in the process of selling them when you sell treasury bonds You would in order to reduce the balance sheet okay Then the us government and also the us government is borrowing Is issuing debt is borrowing money to finance its expanding deficit So as the fed reserve the central bank of the country is selling bonds you sell bonds bond prices go down yields go up I'll tell you why yields go up Uh What it means in a minute and when you also You issue bonds You increase the supply of bonds you reduce the price and you increase the yield What does that mean you increase the yield? This means you're increasing the interest rate on the credit card of the us government The fed cannot afford to maintain the same rate of pace the same pace of interest rate hikes At a time when yields are pushing higher Otherwise it will be a problem for the bond market because it's going to send bond yields higher Holding back on price tightening fed hikes Will also be consistent with the fed's symmetrical assessment, which is what we talked about before So as the fed takes it easy raising interest rates It will also and It will take it easy inflation may go to 2.1 2.2 And they will not be in a hurry to raise rates, but what does that mean for gold? This is exactly what gold bulls what people who support gold who buy gold will want And the guys who are short the dollar would are waiting for any moment any moment That a central bank of any country is going to say Um, yes, there is rising inflation, but we're not in a hurry to press the uh To hit the brakes that is good for gold. Why because gold rallies when there is Inflation when there is what does inflation inflation meaning too much money chasing too few good the value of money goes down okay and uh, basically money goes into gold and When interest rates are not pushing higher enough to contain the quantity of money Then the competition of interest rates or of that is gold and gold goes up Now i am not talking that i'm not And i'm not saying that 2.2 2.3 is a huge inflation is a big inflation No, but it's a reflex. It's a binary thing inflation goes down Not really good for gold inflation pushes higher. It is better or it is less bad For gold than it was in the last few months Okay, this is how you have to approach this and that's why in the last three meetings or four meetings The fed reserve decision led to a rally in gold or supporting gold Now um Before I go into the ecb. I'm just going to talk about some some charts here so and this is let's talk about Dolly and dolly and this is important. I'm going to talk about the ecb in a bit Now this is a trade that has led to a lot of um questions and so this has been We basically shorted dolly and and So where we are now There is this is the 200 day moving average. This is the daily charts and Before I go into the charts. Here's basically what I see The previous chart showed an inverted head and shoulder okay You had a left shoulder matching this left shoulder a head A right shoulder and then you have a neckline And the neckline even though neckline really start from Between the shoulders this was extending. So you had a you had a high here so basically the difference between the distance in 104 50 and 107 20 so we're talking about 330 points 330 points Plus 107 20 you're talking about 110 60 around 111 And the target was reached. Okay So the market did reach This uh inverted head and shoulder target if you believe in head and shoulders, I do When they are applied correctly the market goes up goes down And what I believe is that there is there is a there is a there is uh, not an inverted but a head and shoulder or a bearish head and shoulder left shoulder head Neckline always pay attention to the closing values not the lows and the high This the closing value the closing value the closing value the closing value. It's around one or nine And this is the right shoulder What do you say? I'll leave it up to you You tell me Is is the is the right shoulder is the left shoulder broken now? This is a bearish formation and Shoulders do not have to be the same size. They do not have to be the same shape. They do not have to be the same level And basically Here's the question the fact that the 200 day moving average is coinciding with the with the right shoulder is also something And what is the theoretical? Goal or target If you have a high around 111 44 And let's say the neckline or let's say the bottom here Or the neckline is around 108 60 108 60 111 30 So we're talking about some 300 points 300 points minus 108 60 talking about just around 105 50 here um And today the numbers came out And we had uh, we had a jump earlier Uh One 10 47 but the market does not want to go up.   Well, you'd have to see is it gonna close About that about this level or not. That's what's one thing and let's change the horizon now Let's change the horizon Go to weekly Yeah, Faisal, uh, still not confirmed until it break the neckline. Okay I'll get back to the daily chart and then This is the weekly chart. There's nothing major here. That's that tells me anything. You can put a trend line here and so on so far if you can You know, you can put a trend line Here and it tells you again 111 or seven What about the monthly chart? So the monthly chart here basically the market's still respecting it so The problem with being fixated with only one level of one analysis Let's say 120 130 140 is that we may even break about it, but we may not carry forward. So while I am Focusing too much on this one 1066 80 the market really showing the key resistance 111 26 and you have to remember here is that Um, you know, there is a lot of all goes this market is over 5 trillion dollars a day and there's a lot of all goes that are basically, uh You know, they there's a lot of volatility in the market. So you may see a lot of false clauses and so on and Anton, uh, are you telling me that it's going to go towards 123? Okay, so Anton tells us he thinks that dolly and is going to go towards 123 Okay, so 123, which is basically around here. There is a possibility That it might go there There is a good chance. Yes, there is a chance if if we do break If we do break above 111 80 111 20 We could probably go towards one 1850 1860 Okay There is one positive thing for dolly and meaning that it's could be pushing higher Which is basically the stochastics here are really improving for dolly and they are improving now Um, there is I am actually a little bit more bearish in dolly and But there is another pair which I am bullish against the end And this pair is the following this pair here is urion and If you are long urion And if you are long if you are short dolly and then you are long what? You tell me Give me the answer If you are short dolly and and you are long urion, then you are You are long euro dollar very good Some people are saying what are you saying you long euro dollar? Well, this is your dollar here And this is the quarterly so I'm going to the monthly chart and I'm going to talk about the ECB in a bit So this is the monthly chart And there was a lot of similarities from the 2000 2001 2002 analog here and here We had the lows held up the support then we broke Then we basically broke Above this trend line and then things started to change from here and here's what we had This previous resistance like you saw here this previous resistance Do you see do I need to finish the sentence right now? So some people are saying yes euro dollar long is not a bad idea A dolly and short may be wrong and if dolly and short is wrong Then what does that mean? Well, it could be Well, I am also Long going long euro urion and I'll show you urion in a bit, but let's look at euro dollar You see here is here. Let me say this again if you're long this if you are long This and if you are Long this Then you are You are what with this you're short so If this is not going to go up that means something wrong has to happen either this or this Okay, now technically This is a monthly chart respect it created the trend line support here Excuse me It's created the support Then we fell one two three. We respected it and here we're respecting it Is this um Is this a coincidence? Probably not. What about the weekly chart? Well, you can draw a trend line and you can make it fancy and so on and so forth And you can say that there is a doji You can say there is a nice doji here. It's just basically a big sign of of reversal in Candlesick analysis off and it's followed by a big month A big week the biggest weekly gain in Since the beginning of the year Okay, and then you have this So where do we go from here? So is there anything that druggie is going to say on thursday that is going to push this thing further or not Okay, so that's just really key And and here's a daily chart Some people said that there is an inverted head and shoulder in euro dollar. I don't believe there is An inverted head and shoulder is bullish There is sort of a right shoulder, but there's no left shoulder If you want to basically change the rule and and go to the two hour chart Just for you to try to force it in and you don't want to do that Still maybe Maybe there is If you believe this is a right shoulder, this is just this is just a wake or just a shadow and one candle What's but if you if you believe this is it you're trying to formulate it from from from From a neckline and you're saying 115 And then basically you're saying 117 200 points plus 117. It was 119. It gives you 119 Um So When you're trying to see the the signs you're trying to look for the signs that the market's trying to tell you There's multiple cases of support here near a dollar okay, and I am still bullish your dollar. I am still your bullish your dollar And I think the bullishness we're going to get it tomorrow from druggie and not from And not from The fed reserve. I think the fed reserve you're going to get a lot of the volatility The market's going to go up and down and so on and so forth, but the mark but eventually it's going to come from the ecb If we look at your yen, you can say this is a You know a cup and handle formation. It's in it's complete But look at the weekly chart here very similar to dolly em okay, and If you look at the monthly chart, it's raising some Raising some eyebrows. This is the monthly chart okay, and So this is something interesting and if you if this were a head and shoulder This is the head. This is the left shoulder This is not even going towards the right shoulder. So this is really holding on Okay, so What am I saying if well Since I am I am short dolly em instead of going outright long year a dollar instead of going Outright long year a dollar Some people say no no there is the ecb and there is the fed the last pair you want to trade is the euro dollar because you're really Directly because you're vulnerable to to to a lot of the volatility and so on and so forth so instead of going long euro dollar you can go long the euro yen and Short dolly em, okay It's an indirect way Of going a long euro dollar. It's a defensive way The problem is instead of dealing with one pair. You're dealing with two pairs. You're dealing with two problems and That could be a potential problem, but obviously You know if you want to reduce and this is important if you want to reduce your Your riskiness it's not really in the choice of pairs, but in the choice of the Of the size of the the size of the trade size of the amount And your leverage and so on and so forth and in here the So what do you expect from the ecb? We expect upward revisions in the cpi. So this is going to be so again. Let's talk about the timing the interest rate announcement announcement from the ecb Is going to come out at 12 45 p.m. On thursday, london time. That is 7 45 am new york time. So 7 45 am new york 12 40 5 p.m London time Plus seven that's 5 45 p.m 5 45 p.m. Singapore is the announcement on interest rates And the announcement on interest rates is expected to remain unchanged Because they're not expected to change interest rates, but here's a tip for you.  So the euro comes down But the biggest event is on is 45 minutes later, which is 130 p.m London time, which is the press conference of druggie 130 p.m thursday london time. That is 8 30 p.m Singapore time or 4 30 p.m. Dubai time And what are we expected? So there is going to be the revisions of the federal reserve of the ecb And the ecb is going to explain that euro weakness The recent euro weakness on rising oil prices have justified Their vigilance on inflation. So they're going to raise their inflation and if you recall The inflation numbers went to 1.9 and near 2 for the eurozone and for germany. So inflation is pushing higher You can say oh, yes, but that's because of a weak euro and rising oil. That doesn't matter it happened And the ecb is slightly more vigilant on inflation and less tolerant Less tolerant of inflation rising inflation than the than the Fed The ecb Is also expected to emphasize and and again this may be too much word and useless language and Text for those who are trading charts and technicals, but these are the kind of things that end up moving the market whenever they are Triggered as a bullet or as a sentence by druggie during that conference. Okay, so this is the kind of thing Uh, you're emphasizing that the eurozone is in an x in an expansion Right now the eurozone is in an expansion is not in the recovery. It's a big difference The market pays attention to this Uh, now the main reason why the euro went up in the last few uh, few days a few weeks is because there were some Comments by prior to its chief economist who basically said that the june meeting is finally going to be used to have a discussion And to clarify to the public and to the reporters. What are we going to do with the qe? Okay So they're going to clarify the time path to ending the monthly purchases of 30 billion If you remember they started with 60 billion then they cut them to 30 billion And now they have every month they buy 30 billion worth of assets corporate bonds government bonds and so on The question is the program is expected to end in in december the question is Is it going to be ending? In a you know In a drastic way. Sorry in december the program is expected to end in december In december of this year What does that mean? Are they going to use are they going to tell us tomorrow or thursday that If everything goes well They're going to communicate communicate The schedule in september meeting Or are they going to say Or if everything goes well, they're going to come in september and they're going to reduce qe from 30 to 15 billion Or 10 billion and then they're going to do 10 billion for september october november and then end december and then in march They will probably take it to zero This is what they could do, but it would be more concrete than anything they've done before So they're going to clarify the time path and the market is going to move sideways left right and center on this But there's another point which is italy and people are going to say why are they going to stop qe when italy's still in trouble? Well italy it has some Uncertainty, but it's not really in big trouble Expect a lack of worry from druggy regarding italy Excuse me, so Basically, this is the story so Somebody said is there an explanation in arabic? To this i've i've made them i've i've done um there is a there is I have a web I do arabic for the for the for the ashraf lidi subscribers and And there is going to be a video that is going to come out Later tonight or tomorrow tomorrow the actual videos is going to come out for the ashraf lidi subscribers More on that here later, but let's just talk about this now so This is the key now. I talked about gold. I will talk about gold But this is basically the euro dollar And this is the story here with the weekly chart So and there is something else that i want to show is that just back to that quarterly chart and not a lot of people don't like this quarterly chart, but If you remember, we are about to end the quarter. Okay, we're about to end the quarter So this is a quarter and here with a similarity We well in here we had a failure in the previous quarter ending march Then we tested the trend line and then we fell But we're still holding the support as suggested by the by the monthly and weekly trend line But if this is going to be similar If we are to regain this trend line, we'll have to go towards 121. Is it possible? It's very possible It's very possible for the euro to push towards 120 or 119 You know In two weeks because the because the quarter ends Okay tune We are the 12th The decision of the fell of the ecb is the 14th One more week is the 21st one more week is the 28th and friday the 29th is the last day of the quarter So this is going to be very similar Now let's just Make sense here the Market ladies and gentlemen the market Um, yeah, somebody asked me about the boj The boj decision on friday. Nothing is expected to happen. I'm sorry. Nothing is expected to happen It is going to be the least important of them all. I don't think they're going to remove the stimulus It's going to stay as as it is um Yeah, that's all I can say and um And actually on friday I think the yen and and fx they're going to be Mainly reacting to what the ecb did on friday and they're going to react to also what trump is going to decide Regarding the final decision on import tariffs from china. So that's going to be that kind of day Okay So there is another pair which I like ladies and gentlemen, please pay attention here um Now I'm going to show you something else and Yeah, I want to talk about sterling for a bit and then I'll talk about gold but um There is something tuesday and wednesday for the uk which is so Tuesday is today. We saw the uk jobs figures and they were okay today the The highest performing currency So, yeah, it was it was a sterling and now it is actually one of the weakest so Euro new zealand dollar the swiss franc are the highest performing currency since the beginning of the day since 10 p.m london time Yes, this is for my website, but here's something I want you to pay attention which is this uh Please pay attention to this which is from the uk. So we had the tuesday jobs, but tomorrow wednesday tomorrow Wednesday, I know there's the fed reserve But tomorrow we're expected to see a 9 30 a.m. New york time. Okay, that's 4 30 p.m. Singapore time We're going to see the uk cpi uk cpi and the uk cpi is expected to come out at 9 30 london time and it is expected to Show to remain unchanged at 2.4 percent Which is which is okay. It's still above the 2 percent level, but there is something else ladies and gentlemen Which is more crucial more important for the sterling, which is this There's going to be a series of votes on wednesday related to the Related to brexit. Okay Sterling traders will await as important developments in the lower house. There is the house lord and there's lower house in the In the british parliament where a set of votes related to brexit transition And whether britain will end up staying in the customs union after leaving the eu in march 2019 If the ua if the uk stays in the eu customs union For some years after the march 2019 for a so-called transition period that is supposed to be called a soft brexit Soft brexit, which is positive for sterling And the votes are expected to take place tuesday and wednesday. So there's going to be a lot of activity here now What does that mean? Why am I talking about this because? There is this pair here you're sterling And even though even though this cup and handle Has been broken There is something that has not been broken Which is what? Which is what tell me What do you see here the very good asim asim very good Bravo Yeah Good job. Well, at least that's what I think. I'm not saying this is the way of my way or the highway. But yeah, so there is Um So this even though this is just one candle this left shoulder It is also coinciding here with this level But there's a left shoulder the head right shoulder come out you come out come out It is pushing higher the neckline is here. We broke it. We come back down and we are regaining it Okay, not the cleanest of them, but it is possible And it is doable and now we are holding right above right at the 200 day moving average. Okay So the uk the numbers are improving but there's always the risk of of of brexit And there is a 53 chance that the that the that the bank of england is going to raise interest rates In august, but it's not going to raise rates in july. It usually changes rates in august or in Around around around the november around the inflation report, which is every three months, which is february may August and november So what we're seeing here, this is this has been going nowhere. I know and But it has been going nowhere for those who like to trade the the consolidation. This is not bad But you can see that there is a sort of a gradual inverter head and shoulder here. Okay As you can see here, but this is and I would say that Yeah, if you would have to watch obviously the cpi to more from the uk how this is going to expect and we do have a In the trades here, we have a long-year sterling uh, you got stopped out the last one, but now we bought around 8810 and Yeah, so it's pushing higher. So I think there's a good chance. This is one of also the favorites here to go Long-year sterling now But what about this? What about sterling dollar? So sterling dollar is pushing weaker again and the numbers today from the job figures in the uk were Slightly disappointing as far as the average hour as the earnings Okay, the earnings Fell from 26 to 25 as expected slowed down 292 8 weaker than expected And jobless claims fell which is a good thing and but the iLO remained unchanged unemployment rate Okay, so I am I don't really have any strong reviews regarding Sterling I don't a sterling dollar But this is just something to look at Um, we've broken below this this this previous horizontal base. We entered back into the channel But really there's nothing here extraordinary that I can say This is the sterling actually Yeah Sterling all the I'll tell you which which pairs I'm watching So this is sterling yen The market is pushing higher Yields are pushing higher. So usually the yen goes down and anything goes up against the against against against the against the yen but here is Yeah, but here is A pair that I talked about when I talked about the symmetrical goal Of inflation, which is this Which is Aussie dollar An Aussie dollar again So you have left shoulder head right shoulder distance between the head 74 75 60 that's 130 pips 130 plus 75 60 that is around 76 90 77 So 77 just around here where you can see the target was reached 76 80 Some people say it was it was reached um But look at this And and as long as so we've broken the neckline. We've almost hit the target. Some people say we have reached it We're gonna come down There's a nice rising trend line support higher lows And if you look at the long term and as long as there's no big no bad news with china, this is good for australia But look at this Multi-year trend line support is still holding 2001 holding here and holding here here took a while But we're doing well and look at the monthly chart 123 reversal month Probably a confirmation, but this is going to take some time So this is also to pay attention Okay Okay, um I hope this webinar is going to be recorded. Um I'm not Yes, it is it is going to be recording. It says stop recording. So Yeah, it is it is being recorded. Yes all right D x y some people said let's show me the d x y the u s dollar index Which is basically 57 percent of which is the euro dollar Here's the monthly chart of the euro dollar This is the monthly chart That big horizontal brace which we broke we've regained it. So this is really going to be the key and But here is what the u s dollar has to negotiate We have this The meaning what is the meaning of that so 200 week moving average it failed It failed it's just the same high as this the market has memory And this level was basically um This high Is not insignificant. So basically This level here very similar. It could be 38 percent retracement if you believe in Closing and not highs 38 percent retracement. Here's the market close right below it Okay now The 10 year yield and this is what I want to show this the yield in the u s It's usually usually it moves up when the yen goes down But look at these technicals here And this is one of the as this breaks out. It's usually easier for currencies to break higher above against the yen Okay and So here is something for you to consider. Okay The dolly and the yield has been pushing for the last three The last three days The inflation numbers were Okay in the us But we we have to remember this word and this is what we have to remember this word is This The symmetrical objective and bonds and this is what the market is paying attention I use I use mt4, but this this is the one i'm using the charts is bloomberg terminal Okay, so and here's what we're seeing And if you look at the weekly chart in here, we basically look at this It is a nice uptrend Look at the monthly chart Now we have to see so at the end of the day, please pay attention to this. Please pay attention Whenever I want to know whether a data come out whether a reported job report that has multiple sets So the job report in the u.s. Has the unemployment rate has the has the earnings has has the nfp You know the federal reserve decision has the dot plot has the has the has the rate hike has the If I want to know what the market really think about something and where it is really stressing I look at the 10-year yield Okay, I don't want to see if the 10-year yield is really rising or not So there's a big school right now So the the bond market has been basically rising in prices and falling in yields for the last 30 years But things have been improving and a lot of smart people are saying that that's it The bond market rally is over meaning meaning The rally in in prices or the decline in yields is over and the market is going to break out I personally think I'm still in the school that we're not going to go above 3.5 or 3.3 percent And eventually we're going to go back down towards 2 percent or 1 percent. Okay And I don't think there's going to be a big problem about inflation And I think as the federal reserve is going to raise rates and emerging markets are raising rates And the rest of the world is normalizing. I think that they might not be handled very well by the world Economy so that's one thing but here's what I want you to pay attention to which is basically as this happens and again the The same high that we had here in 2014. We are testing it here Okay, we can talk about yield spreads and and yield curves in other webinars Um But let's talk about this gold so gold This is a monthly chart And these cycles every december. There's a low and then we push higher federal reserve december is usually Okay, there's a low push higher. There's a cycle here in december Cycle push higher push higher push higher And the same thing The trend line or the inverted head and shoulder is still being respected if we do fall below 1290 or 1280 I'm not worried. I'm only worried if we do break below 1260 But let's go into the weekly chart and again Any argument in favoring of rising inflating rising gold is not just inflation is going to run away It's just that the fed is going to have to take it easy This is the weekly chart. This is the 55 moving average. This is the 55. This is the 100 week moving average Okay, yes, we've fallen below this trend line, but it's still higher lows low higher low higher low higher low And now the daily chart what has happened here. Yes, we made a lot of noise falling But then what happened here? The market is not in a hurry to want to do anything Some people say oh the fact that we's not we're not pushing back higher is is bearish Well, the fact that we are actually hugging the support and we're not falling below the support repetitively is not negative It's actually bullish All right, so the sign that something is up does not necessarily mean that when it's breaking out It just means that it's it's ability to test the support and to hold off the support. Okay So we'll have to see tomorrow. There's any reactionary Event risk that would really drive your gold, but this is just something to pay attention And there is something that I like to pay attention, which is basically the gold box, which is And this is And this is gold divided by the miners Okay, and here This is gold divided by the miners by the gold box and as this ratio goes down what happens to gold gold It actually goes up. Okay So as this goes down gold goes up So what I'm seeing as long as this Does not go up or continues to go in a base or struggles to push higher Then this is good sign for me to keep on staying with gold The problem is probably 90 of the people that you pay attention now. They like gold. They they prefer gold But the timing is really a bit worrying So So with the ECB once again Again, this is what we expect. So there's you have to pay attention if there's going to be any Upward revisions in their forecast. I don't think they're going to have any strong upward revisions in GDP growth. It's going to be in inflation They're going to give you the path towards QE ending QE. Let's see how clear that's going to be And there's an Italy they're going to say well, we're not really worried about Italy things are improving and so on so forth And they're not going to select anybody who is anti euro and there's number four. There's a fourth thing Which is basically Is the extent to which Draghi is going to say we had a long discussion. We are disagreeing. We're not disagreeing. It was unanimous all of these things are key Before I finish I just want to talk about the Canadian dollar. I don't know how many people trade the Canadian dollar But There is I have been short in the Canadian dollar and I've been hurting and I've been struggling So I've been short Canadian dollar. This is the weekly chart. This is what it's been doing Okay, and this is the monthly chart This is the monthly chart. Some people say that this is a you know A downward triangle Some people say no, it's not this is horizontal base. What is this? Is this is this declining? An ascending or descending triangle. You tell me. What is it? What is it? What does the textbook of economics stuff? Technicals tell you Okay So this is in an ascending an ascending You're saying this is an ascending triangle This means that it is a rising triangle Right Shall we look what does an ascending triangle of some of you are not answering Okay, so here's an ascending triangle. What is this? This is ascending ascending looks like this Okay This is a descending triangle not an ascending triangle. Okay, high lower highs Lower highs Okay, so at least the theory or the textbook theory backs me up My short dollar can't As far as the stochastics, it's debatable Here's the weekly chart and here is another textbook For head and shoulder So we were short in here. So let me just show you a little story here So this was a textbook head and shoulder Okay left shoulder Top right shoulder neckline the difference 131 22 128 25 difference in 131 30 131 20 128 20 is 300 points 300 points minus 28 28 20 is 25 We got here Then we went back up We went back up left shoulder and guess what look at this left shoulder Did it break or not any guy who who who who applies this to the letter is going to say yes, it broke It didn't break. This is the high. This is the close What and then you have to say what is the market really trying to do What is the is is the market trying to scream at you trying to send you a signal? What is that signal? While we're trying to break the other person is going to say no It's trying to break, but there is a reason why it doesn't break here. This could be a break This is a break. Yes, we're broken, but we came back Now we're broken now, so You may say we have broken you may say We are going to regain the high. I still think there's a chance that we're not going to regain the high There's something else you need to pay attention Which is the canadian economy is improving the only reason the main reason the only reason that The canadian dollar is falling meaning the us dollar is rising against canadian is the uncertainty with nafta and with the with the verbal trade fights between Between the two friends canada and the us and the us said we're going to i don't care about friendship. I don't care about this You've been issuing Tariffs and us we're going to issue tariffs on you and this happens and this hurts canada But the fundamentals of canada ladies gentlemen the fundamentals of canada are improving and the jobs are improving And there is a good chance if the federal reserve is going to raise rates is going to raise rates the canadians They are not going to just sit and watch they will have to They will have to Raise rates too okay, and and i'm going to show you from seeing here is that If you look at the canadian interest rates versus the us Okay, red is canada Interest rates blue is the fed funds interest rates The us and this is us dollar versus canada. Okay The interesting thing here is that let's look at the red and when the canada raised rates they raised them They raised them in july 2017 and They raised them in january 2018 But here They raised them in july 2010 okay The canada canada likes to raise interest rates in july because in june it does not have meetings And it waits until the fed does what it does and if the fed does Something with interest rates too low too high it tries to keep the margin So there's a tendency what you call a tendency. I'm not saying every time the bank of canada raised interest rates in july okay, and this is the margin and basically Yeah, and this is oil And as long as oil is going to push higher it's going to justify and that's why i'm going to show you this So they're going to show you the probability of which canada is going to raise interest rates in july and basically For july is 73 percent 73 chance that the bank of canada is going to raise interest rates Okay, and it's been hovering around 73 and 80 so I talked about yields. I hope that was clear discussion with indices I've shorted indices until I got stopped out and until I hated doing it. So i'm not doing it much of it If there is anything That is worth a while here is that maybe there is a possibility if the euro is going to rise and we're going to have a slightly hawkish conference from Draghi, then maybe we could look for any potential decline for the DAX And here is what we're doing. So if we get rid of this and No, it's not a hand and shoulder, but it has the same behavior formation inability to regain this high This is interesting. So if you want a short stock and this is this is something to look at Okay, there's a lot to talk about here today, but we just have one hour It is let's speak for 10 more minutes or five more minutes Actually, I need to take some of your questions, please if you have any questions Let's look at the stochastics and the indicators Yeah, this is slightly positive, but here's what the market's trying to do Let's look at the Dow The Dow is really pushing higher and this these these formation are positive. Okay And if the same behavior between stocks and between FX and the US dollar is going to continue that means that If we could see the the US dollar weakening if indices are going to push higher and it would be the rationale If you're going to tie it you're going to say that well Basically, the Federal Reserve is not going to be a high rate to raise interest rates And then then then indices are going to like it and and the dollar is not going to gain by any new proactive A campaign to raise interest rates The daily chart is here. We have broken here But you can see we're broken here, but we're testing the lows. We are testing these There was one metric that I had which is basically the weekly chart on the VIX Which is basically the fear index and this VIX basically telling you as this goes down more as this goes up as the VIX goes up The market goes down One indicator I had which is the 55 week moving average on the VIX. It was holding it was holding and finally we're breaking below it. So So as long as we held At it the market did not really rise that much So for me Let's look at the DAX And the DAX, sorry the S&P it does show that it's probably want to retest this level But I think probably around 2800 is still a big resistance, but the DAX does suggest something Any questions so far? Well, not so far, but for now because we're going to close this a bit Okay, um, just just just to give you an idea about the About the premium insights here basically, uh, we've had a tough, uh, three weeks Uh, a few trades got stopped out. Some of them got stopped out very very close. So let me just show you what I'm talking about Um So for instance, so canadian yen. Yes, that's another thing. I wanted to talk to you about we shorted canadian in at 83 30 um again Please if you So dollar CAD if you are Short dollar CAD if you are short dollar CAD and again for those of you who think that this is going to break out What about this idea? Look, there's a big candle High wick closing here high wick closing here. Could this month be the same? So if you are short dollar CAD and if you are Short if you are short canadian yen then you are What are you with dolly in? What are you? Okay, if you are short canadian versus the end And you are short us versus CAD then you are short dolly in Right. Yes. I use 55 200 and 100. Yeah, the green is always 100 Purple is 55 the yellow is 200 now When I was long dollar CAD, please pay attention to this when I was long when I was short Sorry, when I was short dollar CAD, I issued a short here just to hedge but also I'll tell you why but I also because there were some I expect the mark was going to go up and I expected that this issue with nafta is going to continue So I shorted dollar CAD and look at the problem. I shorted it 29th of May 83 30 at 83 30 had a stop at 83 6 85 30 85 6 They had to stop at 85 30 the market went to 85 47 and then it came down. It stopped me out and it came down Is this still viable? It's not a bad idea So basically This is Do you see what i'm seeing or no? Do you see what i'm seeing? Do you see what i'm seeing? So most Yen pairs are showing this formation quasi quasi head and shoulder So if this is really going to be my shoulder, this is just a interruption This could really come back down head 87 84 84 minus 381 what is 81 the meaning of 81 is that this used to be an inverted head and shoulder which we had for our clients here canadian yen We had a while ago when we shorted and we made money for it, but now Here is a head and shoulder So this is in the head and shoulder inverted head and shoulder shoulder head shoulder the market respecting this And the theory is that if you were to take the head and shoulder here This one the regular head and shoulder the goal would be 80 or 81 Which is right respecting the Shoulder of the inverted head and shoulder. Okay, so this is just one thing of looking at it So this is a nice way to hedge this and it is also in line with the short dollar yet If you don't want to short dollar yet, i'll try it you can basically go short canadian yen and long and and and short usd can't okay He's called defensive trading or it's called basically Using using the crosses the united states they say crosses because it doesn't involve us dollar Okay, and so, you know some people said what is Yeah, I mean the subject of the tausiyat Sa'at tausiyat. Yeah, I think I'm at a Yeah Your extent to which the success of the currency pairs Of the of the the extensive of the success Of these currents of these premium insight depends really on on which pairs are used But some of them are 50 percent some of them are 65 percent some of them are 40 percent Accuracy meaning a trade In the dow for instance we've taken the dow we've had very bad luck with the with the dow Let me show you your dollar for instance. Let me give you an example your dollar the last trade. So this was 23rd of may we've issued a long a 116 20 okay, so We've issued a long which was basically on the day of the minutes 23rd of may 116 20 23rd of may Okay, so we basically 23rd of may here and we put a stop At 115 30 the market dropped. Where did he go 115 10? So 20 pips below his top it hit it and then he went back up and now the market 1780 So this was basically a either an appropriate wrong Wrong stop placement and I tell actually the subscribers Do not hesitate to put it lower than what I put it. You know, but again, this is up to you guys. So Again, and what we have we have this deal is that basically The premium insights for one month basically they are for 110 dollars three months 295 There is a premium videos below an arabia and in english This is the arabic section Okay, and Feel video at blue al arabia and this is it goes in the sms Then you click on it and then you get the actual service has been around since 2011 And we have a special the premium of trades You usually get a one week free But if you have an account or a real account a trading account with tickmail Then you get one month free if you sign up with tickmail today And tickmail is a very well known Trading platform and it also caters for institutional traders and And basically all you need to do you can send me an email and say I have opened an account. I have an I have an account with tickmail. Please send me One month free and you either send it to me And this is a telegram. This is not the premium inside. This is below arabia on telegram And you either send an email to support and say hey, I have an account with you guys Can you give me one month free and then I get the email forwarded and those can support or you can send it to me So I hope this was helpful It's a really swing trade oscar swing trade. So basically a trade can take anywhere between, you know Six days to two two two two two two weeks to three weeks. It is really a swing trading But when I when I give basically the when I tell people well I'm going for 250 pips. You don't have to wait until 250 pips You can get out after 30 pips and get and get back in 40 pips and get back in. Okay. This is basically the story So I hope this was helpful and I hope this There's a lot a lot a lot to look and to take in from the federal reserve decision The symmetrical aspect is very important. Again, I will be tweeting So I am an a lid here. Okay, so You look at this So this is my twitter a lid and And basically I will be saying something like fed raises rates Uh three rate hikes Expected and so on and so forth and just to recapitulate just to recapitulate Tomorrow is wednesday wednesday tomorrow. We have a cpi from the uk and 9 30 a.m. Okay, or or or or Cyprus 11 30 a.m. Cyprus or Saudi half past noon Dubai You cpi from the uk is important the federal reserve decision announcement is at 7 p.m. London time 7 30 is the decision is the is the press conference and then thursday the big day the ecb Okay. Oh, there's also australian unemployment data. I don't know how many of you are going to be awake That's on Thursday at 2 30 a.m London time 2 30 Meaning 5 30 It's going to be probably I don't think laid is going to be on thursday. They do at her Probably school me on friday, but a lot of them. So basically this is what i'm talking about Then there's the world cup on thursday, but interestingly the opening matches between south arabia and And and and russia in russia But putin and muhammad bin salman are definitely going to meet together to talk about oil And oil supply because just ahead one week ahead of the big opaque meeting. Okay, and this is basically that No, and the gentleman here tells me that the aid is yom jamaa. Some people say that In saudi, they don't like to go to laid on the day of jamaa So there's a very good chance that there's the aid is going to be on friday But yeah, we will have to see the aid is basically it's the end of the ramadan It's a big feast in the united In the arab world and and in the muslim world. So I hope this was Educational for you guys if there's any questions again, you can contact me either here or you can contact tickmail I've done events with tickmail in dubai and in abu-dabi last Two months ago and it was it was exciting. I was happy to strike a relationship with the company. It's pretty solid It's thank you very much and we will If there's anything again, stay tuned for the next 48 hours. They're gonna be very busy all the best and thank you


Yeah, welcome back to Think Tech. It's a given Thursday morning and I'm here as usual with Tom Yamachika talking tax with Tom and we're going to talk today about overtime. That's a threatening word over time. You know, overtime usually suggests something something that needs attention or else. Tom, what do you mean by that? The title of this is the 2021 legislature is going into overtime. Okay, we have just received word, I think it was yesterday, from Scott Saiki's office that the legislature is being called back into session on July, what is it, the sixth next week Monday? Mm-hmm, but it's the day. Yep, and what that means is that they are kind of gearing up to consider some of the vetoes that were on the intent to veto list that was released last week and had a rather large number of bills in them, 28 bills. So they are going to use that session to consider either changes to bills that have been vetoed by the governor or if they don't like the veto decision at all, they can vote to override it by a two-thirds majority in both houses and the bill- So this is essentially a special session. It is a special session, yes. So the question is, is this the ordinary way it works? They see some bills on the veto list, they are committed to, if you will, they don't want to see them vetoed. So they organize a special session even before we actually vetoes. Well, that's what the constitution of our state says that they have to do. In article three, section 16 of our constitution, it basically talks about what happens if there's a veto after a German of the literature. And what it says is that the governor has until the 45th business day following the a German of session to sign or veto any bill. That would be July 6th. 10 days before that, the constitution says that the governor must give notice of bills that may be vetoed. So 10 working days before that, and that was I think June 28th or whatever that day was that intent to veto a list came out, okay? And further it says that the legislature may return in special session without call for the sole purpose of acting upon any such bill returned by the governor, which means to amend things or perhaps override. And the constitution says that this special session must be called before noon on the 45th day. So July 6th is the 45th day. So they have to convene before noon on that day, which is what they're doing. Okay, and how long will the special session last? Well, we don't know. What happens in special session is that the legislature has a chance to act on vetoed bills. Now, the vetoes can be either total or line item in the case of budget bills. And the speaker's office said that they do have to take some action to fix some things in some of the budget bills to conform with federal requirements, for example, because they're relying a lot on federal aid to balance the state budget for this year, given the fact that the pandemic kind of shot holes in our economy. So we have to fix that somehow. We fixed that using federal aid, the massive American Rescue Plan Act package, but we have to conform with the federal requirements because those federal dollars don't come without strings. Well, to the bills that were passed, were they in conformance? Well, the governor doesn't think so. And for that reason, he's between a few of them. One of them, for example, is the bill that would have given $2,200 per teacher. And the governor's intent to veto message said that there were some concerns with the meeting federal requirements in that one. I don't know if the legislature would necessarily agree with his comments, but if there's a veto, then the legislature will have a chance to fix it or override the veto, one at one. One hand, generally, is this package of vetoes consistent with previous packages of vetoes? In other words, are there more vetoes here than before or is this consistent pretty much within the historical nature of this process?  I think it was maybe a bit more than that in the lingual administration, but there you had the added dynamic of the governor being Republican while the legislature is Democratic. So there were apt to be a whole bunch of ideology changes and the ideology clashes and there were. So a lot of the vetoes in Governor Lingl's administration did get overwritten. Well, there's this 28 number reflected a certain underlying clash, maybe not ideological, but nevertheless a clash between the executive and the legislative. Well, not necessarily, the way the governor put it is, well, they passed all of these bills in May with the understanding that we were maybe gonna get some federal money, we're not really sure how much and we weren't really sure about how the economy was gonna rebound at that point. And then by the time it got to the end of June, the governor said, well, the economy's rebounded and we've got a whole lot, we're in a lot better shape economically than we were in May. So he said, we don't have to deal with some of those extreme revenue-raising measures that were passed in May, such as the Enola Gay-Frankin bill which we had been talking about earlier, or the bill that would give counties the ability to levy their own transient accommodations tax while at the same time, shutting off the pipeline of TAT monies that's already going to them. Yeah, we talked about that last time. But okay, so let's go through some of this. It sounds like there's a number of them that are based on the fact that our economy looks better than it looked before. Although that may be ephemeral time, we do have the variant going left and right. There was an article in the Times today for the proposition that there are hotspots around the world now that are having extraordinary increases in COVID based on the variant. And some people think there's no exemptions anywhere including Hawaii for that. So we may find ourselves in a situation that is not as rosy as he thought.  The Council on Revenue has, I think, met a couple of times since then. And they are the ones that are giving us the rosy picture. They are necessarily predictions, but they're probably better than any partisan politics could have come up with. Sure. On the other hand, if the people who are concerned about this are right in terms of prediction and we operate on a relatively rosy analysis, rosy data, if you will, what happens say in the month of September, October, if we find that it's not so rosy? Well, predictions get revised. And that's what happens.  And we have to act accordingly. Well, you get the Council on Revenues, they could revise, but what about the legislature? Could it revise in between sessions? Yeah, that's what we usually do. We budget on a fiscal biennium, which means a two-year session of the latest lecture. And initially, in the first year of a two-year session, we put in a budget for both years. And on the second year, we do a supplemental budget request that is just basically for the second year in the biennium. So- Yeah, but I'm thinking sooner than that. I'm thinking that right now, these vetoes are, at least in part, are based on the Council on Revenues, which has recognized that we have a reopening going on, the economy looks better than we thought it would look. But if the variant becomes a greater problem, say in the fall, how do we deal with the budget then? Or does it just have to suffer through till next year? Well, the governor does have the inherent power to not spend the money he's appropriated. That's called restricting money. That has been done in commonplace fashion pretty much in every year. When the pandemic was first announced, for example, the governor announced, I think it was a 10% across the board restriction, which means that an agency that was appropriated, $10 million could only spend $9 million. Okay, and of course, he always has the power to issue emergency proclamations as you and I have discussed on a number of occasions. Yes, and he's been doing so repeatedly. I think we're on the 20th one now. I would assume they're less emergent now, though. Well, there's still emergency proclamations and they still restrict pretty much the same things as they did before when it comes to taxation and open records and stuff like that. This is all kind of slightly chaotic. Anyway, let's go back to the bills themselves. So we know there are some that need to be changed to conform with federal requirements or at least settle out what is an applicable federal requirement in the context of these bills. What else? Well, like in the case of House Bill 200, for example, which is our budget bill, the governor has indicated that he would line items, some items there to be consistent with federal requirements. So let me explain what options the legislature has. The legislature can amend a bill that has been vetoed and only one reading is required in each house for passage of the amended version, okay. What's a reading term? That's not a committee hearing, is it? No, it's basically a floor session. Okay, so somebody reads the bill or maybe hypothetically reads the bill and then they vote on it. Right, so the legislature is where they consider themselves bound by a 48-hour rule, which means that the final form of the bill needs to be made available to legislators before they can vote on it. So they might have hearings, they might not. They may just kind of convene on the floor, put in a floor amendment, which is what they do sometimes. And then they vote on it and then what then happens is if it's an amended bill, if there's a bill that's amended to meet the governor's veto, then it goes back to the governor and he has 10 days to sign it. If he doesn't, it doesn't become law. So he doesn't have to veto it twice. Good, okay. Well, that would be redundant. He's already expressed himself. But I suppose they could try to fix it and still if he does nothing, it's essentially a continuation of the early veto. Yeah, and the other thing they could do is they could override the veto where the two thirds vote in both houses, the bill will become law anyway. But let me ask you this. I think I already know the answer. Suppose they try to amend it to deal with his original veto and they send it to him as amended, thinking, oh, this is gonna work because we addressed the concerns he expressed when he vetoed it and then he doesn't do anything. And now his earlier veto sticks. Can the legislature then override that veto in a second step? Not as I read this constitutional provision, but as I was next year. Thank you for that. Okay, anyway, so let's talk more about what we're doing. Yeah, we can't view legislation as a closed-end process. It goes from year to year. Absolutely. Okay, so we were talking about the bills that need to be, the he-fields need to be vetoed to conform with federal requirements. Is that a substantial number in the 28? I think so. I mean, at least half a dozen seem to have that in their veto messages. You know, another interesting thing that had come up was in a number of the veto messages, the governor expressed some concern that there was some log rolling going on. And what I mean by that is that the bill as discussed in the public and has presented in public hearings, they talk about that, but then what they pass is something entirely different. Okay, and the transit accommodations tax bill was supposedly in that camp, according to some people, Senate Bill 58, I'm sorry, House Bill 58, what used to be Senate Bill 56, the Anology Frankenbill certainly falls into that camp.  You know, with a stroke of his pen, he said, you know, the Open Beating Law is null and void and the Public Records Law, the Uniform Information Practices Act is null and void. And that's how it was for a couple of months. Well, of course, that's government, if you will. But what about politics? In other words, you can have a veto message that really doesn't ring true, at least not to a rational analysis that is just not acceptable from a rational point of view. And then you have to look behind that veto message and see if there's politics going on, lobbying, special interest groups, what have you, campaign contributions, if you like. Yeah, I think that's the... I think that is one of the primary considerations driving that teacher's bonus bill, okay? You know, the governor says in his veto message that it has to meet federal requirements. But you know, I think the real reason is that the bill gives a bonus to HSTA without the benefit of collecting bargaining agreement. HGEA is jumping up and down because their members didn't get anything. So I think that conflict has a lot to do with what's happening on that bill. So if you have a situation like that where there seems to be a special interest persuasion in the original veto list in the veto or the prospective veto, I suppose that people on the other side of that question are gonna make trips to the governor's office and try to lobby him the other way. I guess that's happening with any kind of bill that smacks of self-interest lobbying, you know? Well, I think that applies to all of the bills. If you have people interested in them, they're gonna try to lobby. And because we're going into overtime, there are lots of people that need to be lobbied, not only the governor, but the legislators are in play again. Sure. Because we've got special session going on. Sure. I don't know, maybe I'm... Mr. Smith goes to Washington kind of fellow, but it seems like from what you say, everything is subject to lobbying and special interests. And there are very few bills, and we saw this in Washington, in a really, in a reveal over the past four years. And there are very few bills that are actually altruistic, clearly indisputably for the public good where no one takes a self-interest position on it. Am I right? I mean, that's a philosophical question, but am I right? Well, you know, the law is supposed to be the science of what's right versus what's wrong and how our government works. So, I mean, in theory, you might be right, but I think there's always somebody who stands to profit or lose from any bill. Okay, well, once you talk about some of the others now, I know you've analyzed quite a few of the 28. Well, we have quite a few that are on our list because they deal with taxation of public finance. You know, that one with the teacher's bonus is one of them, as I mentioned. And, you know, I can't help but wonder what's, you know, what would happen if the legislature does something like totally unexpected? Like, they can say, okay, we'll fix this problem by giving the principles a bonus of 2,200 also. And then, there's nothing unconstitutional about that. Right? I mean, yes, you've given the teacher some money that didn't come from the collective bargaining room, but if you give it to the HGEA members too, at least there's some measure of parity. It sets a horrible precedent, but is that a possibility, as it is? Yeah, well, that's sort of like infrastructure.  Yeah, it's the I scratch your back, you scratch mine kind of thing. Yeah, that's too bad. I don't see that as altruistic or necessarily for the common good. Okay, what about suspending GET exemptions? What about that? You know, on that one, I think the main point of contention, at least from the governor's veto message was that the, not, it wasn't the GE tax. I mean, people weren't really talking about it. They were talking about conveyance tax and that affordable housing, which is usually bought and sold in bulk, right? Because the, and affordable housing developments usually an apartment complex or some large building with multiple dwelling units. The conveyance tax on residential buildings you know, is going to be between triple and quintuple. So you'll have like very significant conveyance tax imposed if the bill passes as it now reads. And the governor's big problem was, well, you know, heck, affordable housing is a big priority of ours. And this really, you know, really throws a kink into it. I would agree with that, wouldn't you? I would. And the way commercial buildings are being defined you know, through reference to the you know, the county real property classifications. It also shows that if you buy or sell a large farm, okay, the higher conveyance tax rates are going to apply. Why? Because a farm isn't residential, but it's also not commercial. It's, there's a classification called agriculture. And if you're, and what the law now says is, in order to be in that commercial classification where the tax hasn't gone up, okay, you have to be zone commercial, you have to be classified as commercial under real property tax, which usually means zone commercial.  I mean, we're tuning up things or maybe not as if there were no crises going on. There are two main crises, major crises. You know, to make the place sustainable and resilient against climate change and to make it hardened against the other possible pandemics. These are complex issues and, you know, they deserve the attention of the legislature. But if I had to characterize this session, I would say let's just not really dealing with the hard questions. I mean, for example, another one is homelessness. I mean, keep the society alive to avoid having everybody leave, to avoid going into backwater, to build other industrial sectors, for example. I don't really hear anything going on about that. And I suggest to you that we're not dealing with the larger questions. None of these vetoes deal with larger questions. And it seems to me, you're gonna know more, but it seems to me that we don't have bills that deal with the larger questions. What's missing? Well, I think what's missing is a unified way of thinking about the issue. If you can't have any coalescing of the thinking around the issue, you're not gonna have a bill. And even if you have a bill, it's not gonna pass if there are too many divergent approaches. And getting a lot of people behind a particular idea is called leadership. We need more of that. I mean, we need somebody to propose a good idea and have the resources to do it that everybody gets behind and then we deal with it that way. When you have a ton of different people with a ton of different ideas, lots of things get proposed, but they all drop by the wayside as nobody coalesces around. Yeah, exactly. I totally agree. And it also goes back to the issue of self-interest. The recent people go down in the lobby is their own self-interest, their business interest, their interest as consumers or homeowners of what have you. And we have a lot of that. We have a lot of self-interest operating. I guess that's the part of the tumultuousness that D'Tochville gave us on understanding democracy. But the problem is you also have to have the altruists. You have to have the people with the vision. You have to have the people who want to come together on larger issues and saving humanity, saving the planet, saving Hawaii. And I'm afraid that the group that is lobbying for self-interest is a larger, far larger group than the people who are lobbying for those visionary measures. Well, I mean, and there are other considerations too, like take your typical legislator who has a constituency. If you talk to those people in the district, they're not gonna worry so much about whether this island's gonna be here in 500 years or what, if they're worried about how to put food on the table or how to shelter from the elements this week. There's a priority scheme that's going on. And there are a lot of unmet needs that the population has right now. Yeah, true, that's true. But if you measure priorities in terms of the future of the species as against what's happening this week, somebody has to stand up and say, well, I think we should care about the future of the species. And I guess you're talking about leadership now, but one, my last question for you, Tom, is let's assume we have a leader who is interested in these larger issues. And I know has the capacity, capability to evoke thinking and commitment to those larger issues. How does that work? How does it work in terms of Hawaii? How does that work in terms of the social dynamic of raising issues and advocating for issues, getting interest groups to pay attention to them, getting the legislature to pay attention to them? How are we gonna do this if we do it right? Well, I think if we do it right, we need to realize that each person has a hierarchy of needs. Okay. And there is, I think, a minimal point that has to be met before you can even start talking about the broader issues. I mean, if I'm homeless today, I'm gonna need shelter today. I don't really have time to think about or argue about what's gonna happen 500 years from now. How about 50 years from now? But once you have basic needs of the population that are met in a collective sense, then at least people will start to think about it. And then you can maybe have a chance of getting some, you know, ideas going in and wisdom coalescing around one, two or a few ideas. Some people in the legislature are trying that. I hear that in some of the committees like Water and Land and EEP all the time. But again, the big problems are resource constraints. Do we have enough money to do this? And two, do we have the time to do this given what's on everybody else's plate and what the needs of the population are? Bottom line is we don't do it. We always find a distraction always. Our priorities never include this. As a result, you know, we've been talking about a climate change since Al Gore. And we haven't really done anything. We haven't spent any money on it. And there's always something that gets in the way and distracts us always. So if the process continues the way it's been going, we won't do anything. And that's regrettable because at the end our progeny will suffer. That's my thought. Yeah, well, and if you don't tend to the other stuff, you don't have to wait for the progeny to suffer. We'll suffer in real time. Okay, it's all about leadership, I think. And a leader, just as you say, could change the way this works. That's not happening right now. Maybe next time around. Maybe next time around. Yeah, well, thank you, Tom. I always enjoy these discussions. We always find nuggets of wisdom work, nuggets of important issues in what you say. And I really appreciate that. Thank you for having me on the show again. Take care, Tom. We'll see you in a couple of weeks.


Seven Latin American countries committed that by 2020 they will restore 20 million hectares of land. By restoration we don't necessarily mean it goes back to pristine forest, it could go into productive agriculture, it could go into mixed use, but essentially taking land that is today degraded, that has very little economic value and has very little ecological value and turn it into something that is good for people and very good for the planet. Well this is the first time that a region has got together and set themselves a target and we expect Latin America to do more, we just have seven Latin American countries, we expect that to grow. You'll remember that at the time of Ban Ki-moon's climate summit in September the goal was that 350 million hectares would by 2030 would be restored and this is part of two billion hectares that we at the World Resources Institute have now mapped. Two billion hectares in the world that's twice the size of China has degraded. It used to be forests and now it has very little value ecologically and economically and so the opportunity to restore land is one of the most wonderful opportunities that we have in the world today. Not only to sequester carbon and it could almost close the carbon gap on its own but in addition to that it provides food security, income, greater resilience of agricultural yields and so on. We currently have about 60 million hectares that are committed for 2020. The goal for 2020 is that 150 million hectares would be restored so the important thing about today is that seven nations, seven ministers got together and they said we get it and not only us but our cabinets and our heads of state get it and this is very, very important because if the revolution is going to take place and it will require that it's not only a ministry of environment or even a ministry of agriculture actually the minister of finance has to understand this, the minister of planning and indeed the head of state and that's starting to happen and it's a very, very exciting thing. We need all hands on deck. Government ministries have to operate differently from the way they've traditionally operated. In most countries government ministries and departments don't like to share information with each other they have their own flags that they want to wave and they need to learn to work differently so too financial institutions, the multilateral banks, the donors and the private sector need to operate differently and even civil society quite frankly and research institutes need to operate differently we need to operate in a way whereby the whole adds up to the sum of the parts because actually on a Monday morning it's very difficult to actually do the restoration the good news though is that we now have examples really all around the world of governments that got serious about restoration demonstrating it can be done and that's terribly important that we have that demonstration so a country like Niger as you know through smart policy reform has been able to transform rural development through bringing trees, shrubs, bushes and carbon into the rural landscape so the way you think about restoration is you have a fairly serious analysis of who are the players who are the landowners and what are the financial mechanisms that exist are there constraints to make this happening what is clear is that the economics of this is very very attractive we've done a lot of work on this and you can really show that for really any ecosystem really in the world almost that once was forest that actually restoration to various degrees has a very very high rate of return it also has a high rate of return for the individual but also for the nation and the region it also makes the land more resilient, it improves food security so I think the intellectual battle has been won the political battle winning the political hearts and minds is still very much open I mean most countries still when they think about investment and capital they think about who can we get to come and build factories and when they think of capital they think of physical capital whilst actually on their doorsteps in their backyards are hundreds sometimes millions of hectares that are degraded land which is capital which is going to waste and you can restore that capital and turn it into something hugely productive