The following is a presentation of TFNN The power trading hour with your host David white Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER> now David white And welcome all to another excellent edition of our trade power and as always it doesn't matter where you're at as long as you're here at this time The following takes place between 2 p.m. And 3 p.m. So what do we have down today half a percent on the S&P cash down 24 points? Dows down half a percent to I was kind of looking a little bit more for that after everybody read through The infrastructure bill and saw the lack of infrastructure in the infrastructure bill An asset down a little bit more kind of a giving back a little bit of a huge run over the last week or so But down 118 points Russell's down 17 Crude oils up a couple bucks Everybody In the administration wants to make sure That we're paying eight bucks a gallon.  It's another Gold's up about two bucks, but that's kind of it. We've got I Think it's that's kind of it. We've got a little bit of a pullback Options go delta neutral tomorrow if you're new to the show. It's something I spent a lot of time with Because I suspect that it makes the market a lot more predictable on a statistical basis And that is they start selling arms to both sides to even out any moves over the next seven days from Thursday to the 19th But we were on the very very top edge of On the right shoulder of what anybody should expect for returns I put that in the newsletter this morning and you know, we'll get a better prediction tomorrow But right now it looked like 460 to 470 in the S&P Or in the spies. Let me put it that way so that we kind of got up there. We kind of hit a wall It's probably time to consolidate at a minimum some of those wins I still remain long in one position Just because I think it's going to vastly outperform the market even if the market goes lower But we shall see we've got to see how it closes today, but it's up on a bad day So that's always nice But as I said tomorrow, I'm probably thinking a lot more after I looked at options What I'm thinking about doing for the next seven or eight days or so, but right now is this Maybe a little foreshadowing of trying to get the market down tomorrow So they can sell a lot of puts so they can move it right back up. I don't think there's a lot of upside so the Big trading range may be have a very short window of going after it if they push this market down and then pop it right back Up in the next couple of days. My guess is that we go back to a very tight market at 4,700 Just so many options at that point suggest that no one in the option market maker Business thinks that we're going to go higher than that so we can keep a look Yeah Yeah, yeah And basically I'll paraphrase from the den and that is that we have a bunch of folks from Malibu Who gave a huge amount of money and that money was to make sure that the rest of us didn't have any money to drive with So for gas prices, but you know what if you want massive inflation All you got to do is raise gas prices because it raises the prices of everything that has to be transported And of course it is the most regressive tax on the poor It is probably the worst thing you can do if you want to get reelected But hey, don't let anybody know I told them that Other things going on in the market. I wanted to take a look at Market volume a little light today Not massively light 7.3 billion shares as we start the show But what else can you say about that everything? That we were talking about that had popped kind of lately like AMD Microsoft those the usual suspects a bit lower the one that I was talking about yesterday Course was in Vidya Coming up on earnings to for that Was up a little bit more about 318 319 earlier in the day Yeah, it's down about a percent. I have to say that I'm fairly jaded with the kind of What would you say? hyperbole in the market especially for technology But the presentation from in Vidya Absolutely staggering Doesn't mean that they're gonna be able to do all that stuff tomorrow But there's a great deal of the stuff maybe 20% that they can do in the coming weeks and months But from hardware They switched very much to being a software company and there is a ton of things that they're offering now Things that I'm going to be using in the near future for some of the stuff. I do for the stock market, but you know Just all kinds of stuff Out of those guys you'd have to see the presentation But a lot of it along the metaverse kind of idea a lot of it It's gonna be tricky and expensive right now They are showing that they can do it though, which is kind of interesting. It's possible question is whether or not it's profitable To do that and you know spend the kind of money you get that done but everything from routing to giant computers and mega computers Just it's staggering what these guys have in front of them in the future probably the thing that amazed me the most on in Vidya was their quantum simulator With I forget how many GPUs that I think there was 10,000 Graphic processor units. That's like having 10,000 video cards in your machine, but they just have the chips but They're simulating some very Nice stuff in the quantum realm. So when the quantum computers do come along we have software for it But they're answering some of those quantum questions already if the answers Don't take too much computation They can at least get close and they are doing that especially with drugs and some other stuff so very interesting technology from Nvidia maybe On the pullback here if it's maybe back to 250 or something If we get a decent market pullback I'll be ready to pull the trigger again on them. I even in a down market even in a bear market I think that there is a price to buy Nvidia at as they go forward again AMD and Vidya. Yeah, are they down a couple of bucks? Yes Can they both sell four times as much stuff as they could produce? If they could do that for the next six months, they'd still wouldn't get to the point of saturation So always a tough one that I don't want to see short When we get back, we'll talk a little bit about history We'll talk about Tesla 3d systems few others out here They're having kind of a fair day and Be back in it. Are you grinding in the market? But seeing little to no return or are you a successful trader simply looking to make your job a little easier? Learn to take the path of least resistance with David White's powerful trading newsletter David White is an accomplished trader whose deep understanding of technology and the markets allows him to consistently find and share winning trades Support and resistance define the ranges in which stocks trade by understanding these trading ranges David White is able to find the path of least resistance David White's trading newsletter the path of least resistance is delivered daily Before the markets open to make every trading day an easy win Visit TFNN.com today and subscribe to David White's ultimate trading newsletter for $119 a month and try all of our newsletters risk-free with our 30-day money back guarantee Take the path of least resistance at TFNN educating investors What's separating you from the most successful men and women on Wall Street? That's right Information having all the information gives us the perspective we need to place the right trades at the right time The TAS profile scanner is the premier market profile base scanner Powered by its acclaimed TAS proprietary algorithms this feature rich scanner instantly filters over 2,500 plus global financial markets such as stocks, ETFs, commodities, futures and forex This powerful suite of tools leverages instant trade filtering and strategy formulation to show you emerging trades Before they happen for a limited time You can save $100 off your first month by using the promo code upgrade and you still get a 30-day money back guarantee So you have nothing to risk Level the playing field with the TAS profile scanner which you can find under the services tab at TFNN.com Sign up today Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument You have to practice sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts at TFNN You'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis, and it's not just dry tedious text either TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV Live every market day from 8 30 a.m. To 4 p.m. Eastern for free Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the Right moves with your money watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor You were born to be TFNN educating investors All now toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER> as we come back Looking at a market with a check back in on the indexes down 24 on the S&P Let's do a little history, and then we'll get into the rest of the charts And it's all just a little bit of history repeating On this day in 1895 Jen a German professor Physics professor Wilhelm Rottgen Stumbles upon what he would later describe as x-rays while experimenting with electrical discharge tubes Curious is what to do and what was causing a faint green glow on a nearby fluorescent screen Ron Jen begins systematically studying the unknown x-rays and published the first paper on the phenomenon less than two months later He referred to the raises x indicating there were an unknown form of radiation at the time One of the first pay persons to get the paper was a gentleman known By his last name and by the car name today Tesla He went down there and stuck his head in front of it for a very long time Described a lot of different Effects that it had also seeing things Did it for quite a while wrote a paper out of it thought that it was a way of unlocking a man's mind for better and stronger purposes, of course after a few months of doing this he had Un-treatable sores all over his head and he wrote a second paper saying hey You probably shouldn't stick your head in front of x-rays So when everybody talks about Tesla remember he was a genius and he was absolutely mad and He cut his naughty bits off before he died he was so mad Yeah, what a whack job anyway, Ron Made a bunch of other discoveries Pretty good scientists out of Germany at the time and of course laid the They'll the way for many of the quantum physicists to come behind him Out of Germany that would eventually leave and come to the United States But on this day in 1895 created something that mr. Tesla would stick against his head and Cook his brain But I do digress Okay What else do we have here? Oh, we wanted to talk about some of the stuff going on Okay, oh I wanted to get a chart up got a river what it goes on Okay First one I wanted to get to was in video as we said yesterday. We're having a dog and pony show late last night I think it was about four o'clock in the morning. It was rebroadcast here in the States at 9 a.m I did watch pretty much the whole thing pretty much a incredible story. I think maybe More people than not knew about what was going on inside What they were gonna announce and maybe that's why it was up that high. I went to a higher high a little lighter volume May just have outrun itself again. I'm not a big fan of going short in video But more of a market thing I think our sector thing that it was since AMD kind of got the same thing out here so certainly we've got Fairly interesting high As I said that tomorrow we go to Delta Neutral Expect some pretty wild swings in the market But you know what? It's gonna give us a much better view in 24 hours about where they think the market will go for exploration on the 19th But and not surprising that we have kind of a nice little pop out here Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, I see those ads occasionally So anyway, we got Nvidia there, of course One of the stocks that came out with earnings did very well early in the morning when it came out for earnings That was SSYS. What I disliked about it was it gave it all up. I said that was problematic DDD came out with earnings They opened low went lower down to 27 78 Again, I these guys get a lot more of their stuff from China and there was a lot of problems with I think a little bit of sales and a whole lot of Getting some of the parts that they needed to build their systems But a sharp open below the three by three all the way down to 27 78 So we shall see but anyway kind of interesting move out here I would say back to the 2505 low or their abouts Still a good business just in the longer term Supply crisis is going to continue to be problematic for a lot of these companies See what we have Yeah, you're just in a big trading range I think that that goes back to about 23 25 bucks to about 41 bucks. So light volume better issues with The supply chain for them getting parts and stuff think SSYS and DDD should be okay To to to what else do we have out here? We're gonna talk about Tesla La getting smacked around like a redheaded stepchild as I said Before you're always see these big candles generally when they break the three by three display moving average You had one day you got yesterday But people asking whether they should buy back into this over the next last couple of days Made me to shiver It got down close to a thousand. I suspect that we are going to see Musk sell his 10% share and then they're gonna try to drive it back up My guess is you're probably looking if you can get it about 1175 ish Is where you'd pull the trigger on this if we don't get a lot of people moving and short on it If people continue to pile back short on this it becomes a problem and not a shortable solution But a lot of shorts got blown out. You got a huge pullback in this It's gonna be with fairly decent volume, but I would love to see one more attempt Maybe it takes to the first of the year to get this back up But I would suspect that a ton of new cars That are competition to Tesla are gonna be shipping soon enough The people in the den have lots of fun give me a call today<PHONE_NUMBER> Email me at path at tfnn.com or put a message in the den if there's something that you want to To take a look at I think we've got a couple of emails are ready We'll go back to them. Oh already going to the break. 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I think just eventually there was last straw that broke the camel's back PayPal had been a adjunct of eBay for so long Before there was a lot of competition with both Bitcoin and other fintech solutions, but I have a feeling that companies like Vmo and a pack of others Especially in the not in the US but outside the US have really gone after the pale PayPal market and You know if you snooze you lose they really didn't do much in the way of innovation To keep up with it and the Bitcoin stuff secondarily a lot of what eBay had been doing was stuff from China in fact, I'm trying to think of anything I bought off of eBay that wasn't Some kind of trans ship thing that I could have bought from Ali Baba And had shipped over here if I could wait six weeks for it to show up. I'd pay a fourth So there is kind of a big business in reselling Cheap stuff like screws nuts bolts More motors parts All kinds of little knick-knacks stuff that I were and it's kind of like Christmas because they just kind of show up out of the blue But you know what don't use PayPal to buy it And I suspect but I do not know for a fact. That's it I do suspect that the other apps on the phone Are a lot easier To use especially for young folks they aren't and didn't grow up with PayPal PayPal wants to link to your bank account a lot of people dislike that and now that they have other options Are going with it? so I Don't think does PayPal own Vmo. I thought that it was owned by somebody else Let's see. That's what mr. Google is for Do they don't oh they do own well there's other things you got to think that something's going on out there Where the stuff go? Maybe it was just the PayPal stuff. I didn't see inside of it But there are a lot of those stuff. Maybe Vmo is out and other companies back in again I didn't track it that far. It didn't look good going into earnings You had lots of volume on the way down that was telling you that there could be possible problems with it But I don't know maybe is a company It just has the problems that other ones do I don't follow it very well But I there's a lot of stuff. Maybe it is this straight Bitcoin out there where people are looking at that as the future But I know there's four or five competitors to Vmo Maybe that's it. Maybe they everybody thought that Vmo is going to be the big winner And there's just a lot of them out there including Bitcoin But I'm sure we'll hear in the next few days. I'll I'll take a look and see Okay PayPal bought brain tree. Okay. Good enough. Anyway, we will do this for the For the PayPal people It is the loser down 26 down 11% and there's a couple other ones that are just as bad, but That one really looked like it broke Okay, what else do we have out here? I got some more emails during the break Delta neutral. Please explain this term Options go Delta neutral Now options start and can be Maybe as long as 90 days actually they used to have a bunch of ones that are longer. Maybe they still do Where you could buy leaps which are out a year or two years Anyway, options can be like 90 days most of them run for a period of somewhere on average for 65 days and What happens is there's pre a lot of premiums to start off with because of course you're buying protection Options are just like buying insurance on your house You don't hope that your house burns down or most people don't to collect. It's there in case something goes bad Options were always an insurance policies for those who didn't want to have some kind of alternate edge in a particular stock So what you have though is that premium continues to decay and if it's over 60 or 90 days that decaying by the time you get down to the last seven or eight days the risk becomes Exponential for the people that actually hold it So if you're a big market maker and you think that you know what I'm looking at Apple Maybe at the highest it goes to 160. Maybe at the lowest it goes to 140 So I'm gonna sell as many 160 puts as I can Excuse me. I'm gonna sell as many 160 calls as I can and and sell as many 140 puts as I can and I'm gonna just let that run for the next 60 days Well, the problem is that generally it's gonna kind of move to one side of the other for the most part But they're gonna be other options in there and the idea is to make sure that no matter what happens If it goes up ten bucks or goes down ten bucks, whatever you have made From that last 60 days of options does not go away. That's called not that's called Delta hedging So if you're long let's say maybe Some calls you may short the equity and Actually go long the equity so that everything is fixed. There's no way that you're gonna get blown out lose a lot of money You won't gain any But the idea is to not have to try to fire or sell all those options a Handful of days now back in the late 80s and early 90s a thing came along called the black Scholes model That model was a mathematical model It showed that really the major losses were in the last seven to eight days of Trading options for these big market makers. They decided well, we'll just go ahead and do that We'll sell we'll sell arms to both sides the world discontinue and we'll be able to clean up on the other end So Delta neutral is doing nothing other than making sure that the war Continues as much as possible but neither party or either side wins and they walk away with the premium decay of the first 50 60 70 days now when they do that they have to actually Change the market and this is when kind of like when Paramutual betting and the and the horses line up to the gate and they don't take any more bats You know in that last few seconds those odds will kind of move around as people make last-minute bets but generally People are very good at a group of signaling where a particular stock or Who's gonna win if you ask enough people generally get a fairly good wisdom of the crowd answer And that's what I look at now. Sometimes you get in fact we showed it yesterday. Maybe I still have it in my I do we'll talk about Sometimes it's good. Sometimes it's bad. We'll talk about this talk a little bit about yesterday And that's just what the curve Probability curve looks like drop look back at Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area including the surrounding St. Petersburg Tampa and Clearwater markets? 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Tiger TV Paypal during the break and none of it makes sense And of course the people that are pushing the stories say that yeah that's what they heard But yeah it doesn't make any sense either I don't know maybe there's a little more to that As we were talking about what Delta Neutral is for options Options expire on the 19th this month, the 3rd Friday of every month What you have is that last 7 trading days from the close of Wednesday tomorrow Through Friday where they figured out mathematically that it's a bad deal to take That they could get blown out So they tend to hedge all their bets to the point where they're going to keep whatever they've made in those options up to tomorrow So it's not uncommon to see a lot of big swings in the market And generally the swings are option market makers and the rest of the folks Just move in the market around so that they can add shorts and buy longs throughout the day So they're actually hedging the other side of a lot of those puts and calls with actual equities Either short or long the actual equity out there And the whole idea is just so that whatever they've made up till tomorrow's close They keep all the way through the 19th Now do they always do it 100% no Some stocks don't have enough volume in the options to get it done But generally you're going to see a couple of things come out of options On the left hand side here I've got skewness that I showed yesterday And that just if you're looking at the black line in there which is the center one Standard bell curve kind of means that maybe they don't have a good idea where it's going to move But maybe it's a few bucks up or down Sometimes it's the red or blue line where they really think that man the stock could go a whole lot higher But it's not going lower and if you're on the blue line they think you can go a lot higher But it's probably not going lower So they can have a skewed bet to one side of the other in the options But generally if you put enough of them together you're going to get something over on the right hand side And that with the plurality of the stocks tells you what's probably going to happen in the index As you see a lot more of the kurtosis blue line in the center as we talked about it yesterday And that just points to kind of a fairly narrow trading range And we've got something that kind of looks like that But we have a huge amount of skewness on the other side at this time So tomorrow generally is thought of as a big day in the market Because they'll try to take that skewness out and they'll try to take the kurtosis out And you'll get something that looks more like the black line on the right hand side Kind of a standard bell curve or a Gaussian distribution as it's called Where 66% of it happens is going to happen in the inner one-third of it You're going to have one-third on each side but that's a whole lot less of that But you can go back to your basic statistics book on that But this is what you get out of options if you get enough of them And it's not during quad-witching where this gets much more confused So I think I've just gotten to the point now where I'm not going to answer anybody When we talk about options expiration during quad-witching Because there's just too many cross currents and predictions just don't seem to work out But the other nine months of the year they tend to work very well Big brothers in PayPal, yeah I'm not exactly sure that that's true, Fletch I think that's the plan but I don't think that that actually happens I'm not sure maybe someone will call in or email if that $600 level stuck Last I heard they moved it to five grand And that was, Janet Yellen was pushing that crap But I do not understand that that is actually a done deal I thought it was a proposal that would have to go through the house and be approved by the Senate And I don't think there's any appetite that kind of slowly went away But maybe there's some other stuff, maybe I'm wrong on that too<PHONE_NUMBER> Question about you did like going long MUX for gold And I see you haven't done that one has changed They went from 13 and 15 days to cover to five days to cover So the shorts have finally gotten out of McEwen mining Now maybe that means that it is ready to start moving higher Or that they just took their shorts off But 13 days or 15 days to cover it high down to about five days Which is still a lot for a $1 stock But a third of what it used to be So maybe does it move, yeah But I was hoping that gold would move a couple months ago When these guys were massively shorted And they are not massively as shorted as they were before Other things going on out here to, yeah Just kind of the entire market Question about real estate from Ronald What is that, Q and B and X We're up here at the highs I would just say continue watching the TLT 151, so we're up probably at the highs right now Of the TLT, 151.07, got to 151.77 I think a lot of people were shorted Going in thinking that there would be Some kind of four or five trillion dollar spending bill And the TLT would be 115 or something Sooner rather than later But you know what, bond vigilantes probably getting out But we got to really where resistance is So we're probably looking at a trading range Of 146.50 to 151.75-ish I'm going to say on the TLT I don't think it's going higher than 151.75 or 152-ish There is a massive amount of resistance at that level But could you have like a nice $5 trading range In the TLT going forward? I think you can The one thing you didn't get is the same kind of volume You had before in the Vanguard real estate index fund It is just going sideways But we shall see The more we get a nice high out here In the TLT, the more you got to get it A few other things going on here Okay Okay and Frank says thank you for the delta neutral And okay Got a few more things going down here B, B, Y when we return, Y, and we'll wrap up the show. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority in technical market analysis. And it's not just dry tedious text either. TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV, live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern, for free. 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Your investment is secured by high-value real estate in St. Petersburg, Florida. Your investment can be anywhere from $100,000 to $500,000. Do you want to make $1,000 per year on $100,000 invested or $7,000 per year on a secured, high-value mortgage? The target first mortgage program may be just the program for you. The target first mortgage program pays 7% per year, paid monthly. For more information, you can call<PHONE_NUMBER>, that's<PHONE_NUMBER>. Catch Tom O'Brien, professional trader and educator, founder of TFNN, also a special guest on CNBC. Tom will bisect and dissect the markets. The Tom O'Brien Show, next on TFNN. As we come back, we get ready to wrap up another show. A couple of questions came in. What about Best Buy? You know what? Maybe this just goes up into Christmas. I've seen this stock get hammered coming out of earnings back into the January. It seems it's more than a little bit of a pattern that I've seen in the past. I don't know if last year qualifies, but it just seems a lot of people buy into this thing. There could be a reason in that what they're going to be selling is something that is small and expensive like iPhones for Christmas. It makes a lot of sense. The big problem is they're certainly probably not going to see the revenues they've seen previously because so much of the stuff is not going to make it to the stores by Christmas. Some of it's been sent back actually from what I've heard, but that's a lot of the low margin stuff like low margin TVs. We're not talking about four grand TVs, we're talking about $400 TVs, and sometimes if you're making 25 or 30 bucks, it's almost better not to sell the thing. The reason you've got those is to drag people in, and hopefully they buy the more expensive television with more and higher margins that you can make something on, so maybe you make instead of $25 on a TV, maybe you make $50 or $100. But I just don't see it. Certainly the volume is poor. First high came at $108 back on November 9th, 2020 with five million shares. We've got four million shares on May 10th at $126.98. We're now in a $133.27 on 1.2 million shares so far, so you can see that we're starting to get up into some fairly rarefied air. And I've seen this hold on all the way through Christmas only in the club. So when you can, not when you have to, we'll see you here tomorrow on the same bad channel. Save at that time.


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