Hey everybody. Last session of the day, so I appreciate you coming out. My name is Mark Borschtine. I'm the CTO of TREMO Security, and we're going to be talking about Kubernetes in public safety systems. What were some of the things that we had to do that were different from maybe your typical enterprise and our journey over the course of about a decade from running on virtual appliances all the way to containers. So like I said, my name is Mark Borschtine. I'm the CTO of TREMO Security. I've got 20 plus years of identity management experience. I've been working in Kubernetes world since 1.3 with OpenID Connect and RBAC coming out. So if you've ever read the documentation for OIDC on the Kubernetes website, I helped redo that a few years ago. I'm also the co-author of Kubernetes and Enterprise Guide, second edition, and contributor to multiple projects, Kubernetes, the dashboard, Keali. But you don't really want to hear about me. Let's talk about the case study here. So what is the National Capital Region IAMS program? IAMS stands for Identity and Access Management. It is a identity service for the Washington, D.C. area that provides identity and access for regional systems and applications across 22 jurisdictions. So in D.C. we have local governments, we have state governments in Maryland and Virginia, we have the D.C. government, and we also have the U.S. federal government. And the U.S. federal government, you have the civilian agencies as well as DOD. So there's a lot of different cross sections of identity that need to be managed. What's kind of interesting about our platform is that we do both authentication and authorization. So users can log in, authenticate using their jurisdiction credentials, but they can also request access for applications in a way that's independent of the jurisdiction. So it takes a little bit of the load off the jurisdiction IT systems. The applications that are integrated with IAMS kind of run a gambit from content management and collaboration systems, SharePoint sites, WordPress sites, Drupal sites, etc. All the way to emergency response. So for instance, the Fairfax County and Virginia emergency response system uses us for authentication. A lot of the emergency response agencies will use our system for authentication to get regional folks, like folks from universities, etc., into their systems during a crisis. So we run that entire gambit from the whole content management all the way to emergency management. And we've been in production since 2013, so we've got quite a nice long journey. And the entire platform is built on top of TREMO Security's Open Unison. So it's all open source. TREMO Security, my company, makes Open Unison. So yeah. So where IAMS begins. We go back to September 11th, 2001, when terrorists flew an airplane into the Pentagon. Units from Arlington County where the Pentagon is. Fairfax County, City of Alexandria, D.C., Maryland all came to respond to the attack. And out of that, from a public safety perspective, there were a lot of lessons learned. Things like, you know, the regions need to have interoperable systems, radios need to work together. And one of the things that came out of it was this attempt to build a network that would survive an outage on the commercial internet. So if the commercial internet went down, public safety officers were still able to communicate with each other. This network was built, and folks didn't want to put any applications on it because they didn't want to have yet another username and password. So that's where we came in. So when we're talking about public safety, the priorities are a little different than you might be used to in your typical enterprise. The first is availability. You might think security is the first one, but it isn't. Because a lot of the information, if you just have a radio, you can hear. So what's far more important is making sure the system is up and available. An example would be that if a jurisdiction's identity system goes down and they need to notify the other jurisdictions that there's a problem, well, if their identity system went down, how can we log them in so that they can notify these other applications that there's a problem? So we had to build in a way for them to be able to securely do that without their jurisdiction being online. For the stuff that isn't publicly available information, privacy becomes a big concern. It's probably the second highest concern only to availability. As an example, you get arrested. Your mug shot goes into a database. There are a lot of security controls around that to maintain your privacy. These controls are important. The ACLU comes up in almost every conversation when we start talking about how we're going to manage access to these things and making sure that everything is kept above board. So we have to be very mindful of that. Now, of course, security does play into this. You can't really have a good privacy system if you don't have a security system built that's built on top of. And so we use MFA. We use Open Unison itself to control access to the clusters. And then finally, performance. It's got to perform. It's got to be usable, but we're not talking hyperscale. There are about 10,000 users across the region, maybe a few hundred at any given time or logged in. So it's got to be available, but we're not exactly worried about serving millions of people. So where are some of the challenges to bring about? The first is we have to deal with a lot of legacy systems. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. It has a really special meaning in the public safety world because of the need to maintain availability. It's been a slow space to get into the constant movement of constantly upgrading, constantly keeping things patched. There are always exceptions to the rule. So as an example, a lot of the police applications we work with, the first thing they say is, we want to make sure only sworn officers have access. And then the second thing they say is, well actually crime analysts need to be able to access it. They're not sworn officers. So we have to be able to manage to that. There are silos of silos. You have every jurisdiction maintains a silo for the police department for fire. And then even inside police departments, you have silos because certain parts of the police shouldn't be talking to other parts of the police by law to maintain privacy. And then you run into the technology and regulations that feed into those challenges. So we've been talking a lot about what public safety is like. Let's get into the fun part, which is technology. So when we originally launched in 2013, we were running in virtual appliances. We thought it would be great to just have an ISO with the system on it, drop it into a VM, get up and running and have it work. And nobody was going to log in and put anything on it. And that lasted about 15 minutes until we were told, no, we need SNMP on there. We need this agent on there. We need that agent on there. So what was virtual appliance really just became another VM? It was a mix of Windows and Linux. So our product was running on Linux. The jurisdictions wanted to be able to take ownership of it once it was up and running. So most jurisdictions, local jurisdictions run on Windows, so they wanted things to be running on IIS, SQL Server, Active Directory. After a few years, we decided to migrate off of that platform. We were able to migrate to a different data center. That data center made it a little bit easier to run VMs. And so we moved still on virtual appliances, but everything was Linux. We got rid of IIS, we got rid of SQL Server and moved over to MySQL or actually MariaDB with Percona for high availability. We had set up a free IPA service to manage authentication authorization into our servers and for the most part, work fine. And then at that point, we was when Docker was starting to get a little popular and we said, all right, we're going to go ahead and try using Docker containers for all this. And we made every mistake you could possibly make with containers. We treated it like a VM. We didn't really know how we wanted to handle persistent storage. We didn't have a good way to handle networking or scheduling. We did everything manually. And we got it up and running. It worked, but we took one look at it and said, stiff wind is going to knock this thing over. This is no good. So we decided we were going to go Kubernetes, but we didn't want to run our own Kubernetes. So this was about 2017. And we were supposed to be moving to a new data center in a few months. And so we said, all right, we're just going to wait until we move. We're actually moving into a public cloud. And we said, we'd use that public clouds Kubernetes because we didn't want to manage it ourselves. Well, it took a little longer than we had hoped. And we ended up moving to the public cloud in 2019. We didn't have as long as an on-ramp as we hoped we would. So instead of doing Kubernetes, we first went to Ansible-managed VMs, which we'll talk about. And then finally, we did make it into Kubernetes. So the first major move was virtual appliances to Ansible. Our original product Unison was not open source. It had a GUI for configuring things. And so when we created open Unison, we got rid of the GUI, went to configuration as code. We liked that a lot more. It was a lot easier to manage. And we externalized the environment configuration. So now we were able to generate something that kind of looked like a container. It wasn't a container, but it was very easy to deploy. We were able to use Ansible Playbooks, and it worked. You know, we were able to take a VM and get a system up and running in five, six minutes, which was fine for us. The other major change here was we changed from a legacy monitoring solution that the region had been using. We, as a company, TREMO had taken over management. And so we wanted to do our own monitoring. We'll talk about that. And we did all of our patching via Ansible. So when it came to monitoring, we didn't have the capacity to just start deploying Prometheus and getting it up and running. We're a little bit budget constrained. So what we decided to do was we were going to run Prometheus and Grafana inside of TREMO's cloud, but do all the scraping against our in-data center or in the other cloud VMs. So what we decided to do was we had, on the left there, that's the TREMO cloud, we would have a Prometheus instance scrape open unison. Open unison would put a message on an Amazon SQS bus. You get picked up inside the cloud. Open unison would then scrape all the open unisons inside of the network, compile all of the responses, put it back on the bus, send it back up to the cloud, and then the open unison in the cloud, and then we give it back to Grafana. So that way we were able to monitor everything without having to worry about an ingress into the network. So now we're starting to get to the fun part. We're moving from VMs to Kubernetes. We had a few different challenges. The first challenge we had was a split network. Our applications are on a combination of that NCR net I had mentioned and the public internet. Some people can come in from the public internet, folks that are coming in if they're on the jurisdiction's networks are coming in from the NCR net. So we had to make sure that we had dual entrances and we narrowed down where things could go based on ingresses. We still had to deal with legacy security. All of the security rules across the regions are all still built on firewalls and IPs and natting. So that was a bit of an interesting conversation with security folks and they saw what we were doing and they were able to sign off on it. And then we had to get into CICD. This is where we really started to have some fun because what went from generating what was essentially a executable war file now became how do we generate a container and keep that container up to date. And then the last couple of things that we had that were challenging for us were logging and monitoring. We take all of our logs from Open Unison. We put them into a database. We started this before Splunk really became a thing and when Splunk did become a thing, nobody was going to give us budget to actually run Splunk. And because of the volume, it was actually easier just to do it in real time using message buses than trying to do something fancy with persistent volumes. So let's talk about our pipeline. So Trummo Security manages multiple base images in our Docker repo and we keep them up to date. We use gripe from anchor to scan those containers every single night and if canonical, all of our images are built on Ubuntu. So if canonical releases a patch for a CVE, we get triggered to go ahead and rebuild the container. That rebuild then triggers another rebuild to go ahead and build our NCR container. So we execute a webhook that triggers a patch into a GitHub repo that stores the application code that then triggers the cloud CICD pipeline to do a rebuild. That rebuild then patches the API server and the test environment to go ahead and load the new container. And because we have continuous monitoring, that tells us that everything is still working. Once we're happy that everything is still working, we go ahead and update our production API server with the new tags to run the new version. So we've got Kubernetes up and running. Everything is going great. And so the next question becomes what's next? Are we done yet? And going back to our original requirement, we need to have multiple instances. We all know public cloud data centers do go down. It doesn't happen often, but it does happen. And so we wanted to be able to fail over to a different data center, a different region entirely. And we didn't want to have to maintain two different clusters from nothing. So GitOps seems like the right approach. Well, before we could get to GitOps, working backwards here, we needed to figure out how we wanted to manage our secrets. Wasn't willing to put secrets in Git, and we'll talk about that in a second. So we needed to figure that one out. And, of course, we were on managed Kubernetes, so we had that one done. So let's talk about secrets management. You need to be able to externalize your secrets for GitOps. Secrets should never go in Git. I know there are projects out there, like sealed secret for encrypting secrets. The problem with that approach is a couple of fold. The first is if you... Git is specifically designed to be easily distributed. And to lose track of it. And so if I download my Git repo, I pull my Git repo, accidentally I push it up to GitLab or GitHub. I have now lost control of it. There's nothing I can do at that point other than try and go delete it. But once it's out there, there's no centralized control. You've now lost control of it. So that's issue one. Issue two, the big point... The biggest value of Secrets Vault isn't the fact that you're locking down the secret itself. I mean, it's good to lock that down. I'm talking wrong. But it's that you now have control over who's accessing it, and you have control over... or visibility in who's accessing it, and the ability to quickly rotate it. Which you can't do if you're using encrypted secrets in Git. If you're using encrypted secrets in Git, now you have a key that you have to maintain, and if that key gets lost and you need to rotate it, you have to go to find each secret that is encrypted by that key. So I understand why people do it, but for operations, we were not going to do it. Another point about using Vault, we wanted to use Vault as a centralized database for Secrets, but we were not worried about using Kubernetes Secrets. It's a common API. All the systems we use know how to use it. And so Kubernetes Secrets were fine, and the blog post I linked here came out early in 2022. It does a really great job of looking at the different potential threats to Secrets and Kubernetes and explaining why it's fine to put your Secrets, for the most part, into SED. Most of the value that you're going to get out of Vault beyond what syncing the Secrets into SED would get you, would be defeated by automation anyway. Especially now that Kubernetes has a way to provide an identity to workloads to talk to your Vaults without having to have a specific password or unlock things. So we decided to go with the CSI Secrets Store Driver. There are other projects that let you synchronize from a Vault into Kubernetes Secrets. We liked this one because it was part of CNCF. The kind of trick with it was that you still had to have the Secrets mounted to a pod, even though you were generating Secrets. So that was a little bit of fun to figure out. So the first thing we did was we wrote a script to convert our existing Secrets to a Vault. We automated it. So we wrote a script that went through each Secrets, generated the correct CSI object. The CSI object is kind of standard, but each implementation of the CSI Secret Driver, every vendor has its own implementation. So the Secrets Store Driver for Amazon has different things in the object than the Secrets Store Driver for Vault, for AKS, et cetera. So it's a little bit of hard-coded from that perspective. But once we did that, we were able to connect our cluster to Vault, generate the correct objects, and then we had to synchronize the objects, the Secrets into our cluster. So the way that we handled that was we used the pause container, or the pause image. It hasn't changed in, like, six years, I think. So we created a deployment with pause. It takes almost no resources, don't have to worry about patching it. That would mount the Secrets internally, and that would then get the CSI Secret Store Driver to synchronize the Secrets into our... the Secrets from the Vault into Secret Objects into STD. So that way we're getting our cake and eat it, too. So once we had our Secrets figured out and working, then we could start having fun with GitOps. And the first thing we learned very quickly is that eventual consistency is a lie. The reason I say that is if you've ever run a Helm chart and it failed kind of halfway through, Helm doesn't try again. You've got to make the decision to do that. If you have stateful systems, if you have monoliths, a lot of applications require specific sets of steps to happen in the right order and things to be ready before they can even get started. And so that was really our first big challenge, was figuring out how we were going to coordinate that. We have a combination of Helm charts and static manifests. My original thought was we were going to use Helm for everything and just have a different values file for each environment. We ended up deciding to go with environment-specific repos, though. Our Dev environment is much more complex in our production environment. So I talked about 22 jurisdictions across the region. In Dev, I have to replicate that so that we can test and make sure that things work before we push it into prod. So that infrastructure that's needed to provide those testing identities doesn't need to exist in production. We're not going to sink it into production. So we decided to go with the separate repos. And that made for a really easy migration from Dev to prod. And for a GitOps controller, we decided to go with Argo CD using the app of app pattern. So when we create Argo, we create a single application. That application points to a Git repo that has a bunch of application objects in it that gets synced in and then that powers the rest of the infrastructure. I really like Argo CD. I like having a GUI. It makes it easy to track what's going on visually and see what's going on and it simplifies the day-to-day operations. Some of the things that we had to... that were interesting to deal with was learning how to use waves properly in Argo CD. So making sure that I talked about sequences. Yeah, certain config maps were deployed before deployments were deployed or making sure that certain CRs were deployed before the relying deployments were there. So that was an interesting journey, seeing how all that fit together. So once we had our environment ready to go, the next thing we had to do was move all of our configuration out of our old cluster into our new cluster. And there are surprisingly few tools that'll let you do that. If you have a cluster and you use the kube control getAll plugin, that literally just gets everything from a namespace, you've got a ton of objects that are ephemeral in nature. Endpoints, pods, replica sets, these intermediary objects. So the first thing we wanted was something that would strip all that out. Then we also wanted to strip out all of the metadata information that was very cluster specific. UUIDs, resource versions, the annotation that stores all of the state management so you can do kube control apply, I'm blanking on it right now. So I could not find a tool that would do it, so I wrote one. There's the URL for it, you're welcome to use it. It is not a polished CLI tool, but you're perfectly welcome to use it. And what it does is it goes through the environment namespace, exports everything by object into folders that I can then easily clean up, go through, import into a Git repository. So some of the challenges we ran into with GitOps were CI CD. So when we talked about our CI CD pipeline previously, we were using the cloud vendor CI CD system to build, generate the container, and then patch the API server deployment to go ahead and roll out the new container. Well, in the GitOps world we don't want to do that, we want to patch a GitOps repo.  So that was a little interesting trying to figure out how to get that to work. One thing that's really good is you can use the kubectl patch against a local manifest to do the patching, so you don't have to worry about using sed or grep or awk or any of the other text-based tools to update it. You can do kubectl patch the same way, you just do it locally against the YAML file in your manifest. Monitoring was a little interesting. When we moved to Kubernetes we stopped using the tremolo-hosted monitoring solution and we moved instead to Prometheus Stack running inside the cluster. The issue we ran into though was that Prometheus Stack isn't really designed to be customized, and so we had specific dashboards and specific metrics that we wanted to track. And so we ended up writing a script that would download the source from Git, make our changes, and then run a lot of them, and then bring that into Git. And that worked pretty well. That actually wasn't as bad as I thought it was going to be. All right, I talked about leveraging waves in Argo, and then the last is once the repo is updated, making sure that Argo is synchronizing in the proper order, so we ended up writing some scripts to do that. I'm looking at doing something maybe with Argo workflows to make that a little bit more automated. Yeah, and that's pretty much it. I'm going to do a little shameless self-promotion here. You can find me on Twitter, either myself or tremolo-security. And we've got a 20% discount on Kubernetes and Enterprise Guide second edition. You get it off of Amazon, that's what that QR code is for. And you've got the code there. Any questions? All right, oh, sorry, one more. We got one. I'm sorry, I didn't hear that. We have three people on the team. The question was how big was the team? We have about three people on the team. Any other questions? All right, well, thanks for making it to the last session of the day.


We present a method for change detection in images using conditional adversarial network approach. The original network architecture based on Pix2Pix is proposed and evaluated for difference map creation. The paper addressed three types of experiments, change detection in synthetic images without objects relative shift, change detection in synthetic images with small relative shift of objects and change detection in real season varying remote sensing images. This article was authored by M.A. Lebedev, Y.V. Vizilter, O.V. Vigilov and others.


Hello, I hope everyone is safe and thank you for listening to this presentation. My name is Antonio Flérez Gutiérrez and I will talk to you about my joint work with María Naya Plasencia on the subject of key recovery algorithms for linear cryptanalysis. Linear cryptanalysis is one of the fundamental cryptanalysis tools for symmetric primitives and any new proposals are expected to claim security against this type of attack. Over the years, many extensives and improvements on the original idea have been proposed. One of them is the work of Colad and others in 2008. They found a way to use the FFT to reduce the time complexity of some linearly recovery attacks. After that paper, several attacks have been proposed which use this technique, but so far nobody has tried to give a general description. In this work, we introduce a generalized version of the accelerated key recovery algorithm which covers any number of rounds, and takes the key scheduled of the cipher into account. We then use the new algorithm to propose the first attack on the 28th round present. The presentation will be organized as follows. First, I will shortly describe the contribution of Colad and the others. Then I will explain the extended version of the algorithm, including the key scheduled techniques. Finally, I will give an overview of the new attacks on the present. We will begin by revisiting the contribution of Colad and the others. In a simple last round linear key recovery attack, we consider a linear approximation of the cipher after removing the last round. The aim of a key recovery algorithm is giving a large enough collection of plain-text cipher text pairs to guess all possible values for a part of the last round subkey, decrypt the last round for each cipher test and key, and compute the correlation of the linear approximation for each possible case of the key. We expect that the correct guess for the last round subkey will show the largest correlation. If we implement this algorithm, its time complexity is the number of available pairs N times the number of guesses for the part of the last round subkey, which is usually 2 to its number of bits. Can we improve this time complexity? This type of attack needs to compute the correlation of the linear approximation for multiple guesses of the last round subkey. This correlation can be rewritten as a sum of signs over the space of all the available plain-text cipher text pairs. The correlation can in turn be separated into two parts. One doesn't depend on the data and can be pre-computed, and the other is independent of the key guess and can be obtained very quickly from the data. In other words, the vector of correlations for all the key guesses is the product of a matrix C, which only depends on the structure of the cipher, and a vector A, which is obtained from the data. Additionally, the matrix C has a specific structure. Each of its entries is minus 1 to the power of a Boolean function of the exclusive or of the row and column number. This type of matrix diagonalizes in such a way that the change of basis matrices are the Hadamard-Silvestre matrix. Furthermore, the eigenvalue vector can be obtained by multiplying the first column of C by this matrix. The product of a vector by the Hadamard-Silvestre matrix is what is usually called Walsh Transform, for which there is a fast algorithm analogous to the FFT, which has time complexity Bgo of M times 2 to the M. The result from the previous slide provides a decomposition of the matrix C, which in turn gives a way to compute the vector of correlations efficiently. The attack would proceed as follows. First, the adversary looks at each plain cipher text pair and updates the appropriate counter and a vector until all the pairs have been processed. This is called the distillation phase. Then, the attacker proceeds to the so-called analysis phase. First, the FFT is applied to the vector from the previous step. Then, the eigenvalues of C are computed using the FFT. They can also be obtained in advance. The vector is then multiplied element-wise by the eigenvalues of C. Finally, another FFT is applied to the vector in order to obtain a multiple of the correlation vector. The attack returns the largest components of this vector, which provide good guesses for the value of the last round subkey. The time complexity thus becomes Bgo of M for the distillation phase and three FFT for the analysis phase. That is, Bgo of the number of bits of the key guess times 2 to the number of bits. We now proceed to describe our generalization of this algorithm. We considered three possible ways of extending the accelerated attack. For example, we might desire to do key recovery over multiple rounds and not just the last. It would also be interesting to adapt the algorithm to multiple and multi-dimensional attacks. And finally, we should also consider the dependence relationships which are induced by the key schedule and how to reduce the time complexity of the algorithm with them. For now, we will focus on the first possible avenue. We will consider a cipher like the one on the picture, where the plain text is short with the first round subkey and then goes through a small keyed outer cipher, corresponding to the first few rounds. After this, the main inner part of the cipher is applied. At the output, another small outer cipher corresponding to the last round subkey is added to obtain the cipher text. Many ciphers and especially key alternating ciphers adapt to this structure. Like with the previous attacks, we will consider a linear approximation of the inner cipher. We also consider some parts of the subkeys which need to be guessed. K0 and K3 for the external round subkeys and K1 and K2 for the outer ciphers. As in the previous key recovery attacks, the adversary wants to compute the correlation of the linear approximation for all the possible guesses of the subkeys. We will now rewrite the correlations as we did in the previous attack. For a fixed value of K1 and K2, we can rewrite the correlations for all the guesses of K0 and K3 as the product of three matrices. The matrix A can easily be obtained from the data. The matrices BK1 and CK2 only depend on the respective subkeys included in the super index and can be pre-computed. Furthermore, the matrices BK1 and CK2 have the same structure as the matrix C in the previous attack and exhibit the same worst transform-based decomposition. From this formula, we construct the following algorithm. In the distillation phase, we look at the path of the plain text which interacts with K0 and the path of the ciphertext which interacts with K3 and count the number of appearances of each possibility for those. These counters are stored in the matrix A. We then proceed to the analysis phase. First, the fast-force transform is applied on all the rows and columns of A. This is the same as applying the fast-force transform on a vectorized form of A. Separately, we compute the eigenvalues of BK1 for all possible values of K1 and we do the same thing for the matrices CK2 for all values of K2. We now repeat the following steps for all possible values of K1 and K2. We multiply the entries of the transformed version of the matrix A by the appropriate eigenvalues from the previous step. Finally, we apply another set of fast-force transforms on the resulting matrix to obtain the correlation for all guesses of K0 and K3 for the fixed value of K1 and K2 that we have chosen. After repeating these steps for all possible values of K1 and K2, we have obtained all the correlations for all the possible guesses of the sub-keys. The only thing left to do is to search for the largest values and proceed with the attack. The time complexity of this new algorithm is big O of n for the distillation phase. For the analysis phase, it's the number of bits of K0 and K3 times 2 to the total number of bits involved in the key recovery. Apart from the possibility of covering multiple rounds, the new algorithm has the following advantages. First, we note that the distillation phase can be done just once in multiple and multidimensional attacks, thus saving a lot of time in the distillation phase. We also note that the matrix description of the algorithm allows us to separate K1 from K2. This can be useful to improve the efficiency of multiple attacks where approximations serve input or output masks. Finally, the worst transforms can still be seen as purely vectorial operations in order to perform all the optimizations, as we'll see later. Most real ciphers use some sort of key schedule, which means that the sub-keys are not completely independent. So far, our algorithm assumes that all these kivits are independent. Is it possible to use these dependencies in order to reduce the time complexity of the computations? For example, if K1 and K2 are dependent from each other, it is easy to omit any impossible pairs of values from the computation. However, exploiting dependencies involved in K0 and K3 seems harder, as they are involved in the computation of the worst transforms, and we need to compute the correlations for all the guesses at the same time. However, we've been able to introduce two different approaches. While the complexity gains are not dramatic, sometimes they can make an attack faster than exhaustive search, so they are still interesting. The first approach we consider is called pruning the worst transforms. Pruning is a problem that's been studied in the case of the FFT and can be thought of as the construction of efficient algorithms which compute only a subset of the outputs of the transform. We consider a simple visual example to illustrate how this type of algorithm could be used. In the picture, we have bits of the round subkeys which are repeated, bits which have fixed values, and bits of K0 and K3 whose value can be deduced from those of K1 and K2. In the picture, even though there are 24 bits of subkey involved, they can all be deduced from just 14 bits of information. In order to make use of this type of dependencies, we have described a new FFT pruning algorithm which can be used to compute the outputs which lie in an affine subspace. More specifically, if we think of the indices of the outputs as elements of the binary vector space of dimension m and we choose an affine subspace of dimension d, we can compute the outputs in that subspace in 2 to the m plus d times 2 to the d operations instead of m times 2 to the m, which would be the normal Walsh transform. We'd like to point out that in our paper we only describe a more specific version of this algorithm for the case in which some coordinates of the output index are fixed and not for general affine subspaces. The time complexity gain of the new algorithms are particularly significant when d is significantly smaller than m as we essentially achieve a reduction by a factor of m in the time complexity. If we use this pruned algorithm on the last set of Walsh transforms of the key recovery attack, which are indeed the bottleneck of the algorithm, we can obtain moderate but noticeable reductions in time complexity and great reductions in memory complexity. We have also considered a different approach for multiple linear attacks. It is possible that different approximations require different parts of the subkeys, as shown in the picture. We have a different set of bits for each approximation and they can all be deduced from some bits of information about the master key, which we'll denote by kt. In this case, we can use the previous algorithm separately on each approximation considering only the bits of key which are completely essential and then we can combine the information from all the approximations into the multiple linear cryptanalysis statistic. The resulting algorithm is like this. The distillation phase is performed separately for each approximation, or more specifically, for each masking of the plaintext and ciphertext. The analysis phase begins by using the generalized algorithm separately for each approximation, considering only the essential bits of subkey in each case. Then, for each case of the master key, we compute the key squared multiple linear cryptanalysis statistic from the tables obtained in the previous step. The time complexity of this version of the algorithm is shown on screen. We have now reached the last part of the presentation, where we will give a very short overview of our attacks on the block cipher present. As a reminder, present is a lightweight block cipher, which was made an ISO standard in 2012, which has a 64-bit block and 80 or 128-bit keys. It consists of 31 rounds which have the following steps. First, the exclusive or addition of the round subkey. Then, the application of 16 identical 4-bit S-boxes. And finally, a fixed-bit permutation of the state. This is a drawing of a present round. The present test box has 8 linear approximations with masks of Hammingweight 1. Because the linear layer is a bit permutation, this means there are linear approximations whose linear holes contain many linear trails comprised of these 1-bit test box approximations. There have been many linear attacks which make use of these strong linear holes, which so far have been effective on up to 27 rounds, and are the best known attacks of any kind non-present. For our attacks, we have looked at all linear trails with up to 2 active S-boxes in each round, and have selected some approximations which have a strong ELB, with this subset of trails. More specifically, we have designed 3 different multiple linear distinguishers, which have different properties. For all these distinguishers, we consider a key recovery attack with 2 rounds at the beginning of the scythe and 2 rounds at the end. Distinguisher number 1 is the most lightweight, and has 128 linear approximations with masks of Hammingweight 1. It has the smallest capacity of the 3, but also the smallest cost for the key recovery. This is why we used it on our 26 and 27 round attacks. Distinguisher 2 has 296 approximations, some of which have input masks of Hammingweight 2. As a result, its capacity is slightly larger, and the cost of the key recovery is not too large. We used this set in our attack on 28 rounds present 80. Finally, Distinguisher 3 has the largest capacity of the 3, with 448 approximations with masks of Hammingweight 1 or 2 in both the input and the output. It also means that it has the most expensive key recovery, so it can only be used in the 128-bit key variant. We used this Distinguisher for an attack on 28 round present 128. Our theoretical predictions of the properties of these Distinguishers were evaluated experimentally, by simulating the key recovery attacks on 10 and 12 rounds present. That means we tested the properties for 6 and 8 round versions of the Distinguishers. We were happy to find that the experimental results closely follow the predictions of the statistical models of linear-kept analysis. So we are fairly confident that our predictions for the larger number of rounds will still hold. As an example, this picture illustrates the key recovery for the attack on 28 round present 80 using Distinguisher 2. The crosses mark all the sub-key bits which are needed in the attack. All these bits can be deduced from the 73 bits which have been highlighted in red. Because of the Hammingweight of the masks of the approximations, for each one we only need up to 32 bits of the first round sub-key, up to 8 of the second, 4 of the penultimate one and 16 of the last. By using both of our key schedule techniques, we can bring the time complexity below that of exhaustive search, as we'll see in the next slide. Considering all this, the attack can be summarized as follows. In the distillation phase, we use the whole code book to construct 8 tables corresponding to different parts of the plain text and ciphertext. Then, we compute the correlation for all the approximations for all the guesses of the corresponding part of the key using the prune-fast-wash-transform algorithm. We obtain 228 lists which can actually be merged into 32 corresponding to different parts of the key. For each possibility of the 73 red bits of key, we compute the rest of the sub-keys with the key schedule and compute the multiple linear kept analysis statistic with the tables from the previous step. We keep the key candidates with the largest values. Finally, we search exhaustively for the remaining 7 bits of key in all the key candidates from the previous step until the correct full key is found. There is a probability of 95% that less than 2 to the 77.4 encryptions are performed. We should note that with the naive implementation of key recovery, this attack would have a much larger time complexity than exhaustive search. This table compares our new attacks with the best previous attacks on present. In short, we have provided new attacks on 26 and 27 rounds with smaller data and time complexity, as well as the very first attacks on the 28 round version of the cipher. With this, we reach the conclusion of this talk. In our opinion, the main contribution of this work is the new generalized algorithm for accelerated key recovery linear attacks which covers multiple rounds. We have also introduced two techniques to make this algorithm more compatible with the sort of dependence relationships introduced by the kill schedule. One of them features a novel pruned walls transform algorithm for affaying subspaces of the output. With this renewed toolbox, we are able to construct the best known attacks on the block cipher present. We think that these new algorithms will not just allow to speed up the time complexity of existing attacks, but permit attacks with better linear distinguishers which would be impossible without acceleration, and therefore also reduce the data complexity and sometimes even increase the number of rounds. However, there are still many avenues for improvement. First, we would like to apply the new algorithms to other ciphers. For example, we are currently working on attacks on reduced round no-account. More theoretically, we'd like to study the case in which the matrix A is very sparse, which for example happens when our key guesses cover more than half of the plain text and the cipher text. Can this situation be used to speed up the walls transforms? We'd also like to develop automatic tools which compute the cost of an efficient key recovery attack given a linear distinguisher of a block cipher. Another much more ambitious task would be to create software which finds optimal linear characteristics not just in terms of the linear properties, but also the cost of the key recovery. Finally, because the focus of our team is quantum cryptanalysis, we'd like to explore the possibility of efficient implementations of linear attacks in the quantum setting. So, this concludes the presentation. Thank you very much for listening.


Governor Shayim Makhinde has admitted new executives into the People's Democratic Party in Oyos state. The new PDP National Chairman of the South West Zone is former Ambassador Taufiq Arakpaja. Governor Makhinde urged the new PDP executives to reconcile all agreed members of the party and win elections. This next report has more. Taufiq Arakpaja is playing about his mission as the new Chairman of the People's Democratic Party PDP South West Zone. He wants to unify all members of the PDP and ensures that the party wins all six states of the South West in coming elections. He said this after he was inaugurated alongside other elected Executive Committee members of the PDP South West Zone at Oyo Government House Ibadon on Wednesday. Arakpaja also raised concern over APC handling of the security situation in Nigeria while touting the PDP as a better alternative. I mean look everywhere is insecure, insecurity everywhere. Even at the backyard of Mr. President, they negotiate with Bandit. Hopefully the governor come out and negotiate with Bandit, hopefully. I don't know, I don't know how you see it but to me, well, it looks as if we don't have a country, we don't have leaders. And it's because the power is there with the, with the cabal. The power should belong to the people, we should be giving back to the people. Oyo State Governor Sheyma Kinde, who chaired the ceremony, said the South West PDP is positioned to take its rightful place in Nigeria's politics, beginning with the forthcoming Osho and equity governorship elections. For us in the South West, it is time to ensure that we take our rightful position. On his part, Lagos State Party Leader Walego Mez noted that the PDP is a brand new and unified party. If you look at the Congress, you find out that it was peaceful. Not the election, it was peaceful. And let me tell everybody, as you are speaking, that PDP is going to be a new party, a new party of love. Because right now, we're going to have reconciliation in every single area that is part of Lagos or part of Nigeria. We're going to be one party. Arapaja is a former deputy governor of Oyo State and former Nigerian ambassador to Jordan. He has now assured party members that the executive will present credible and acceptable candidates that could lead the party to victory for elections. As far as we are concerned, what happens before the election, during the election is gone. What we want now is how to reunite our people, unify our people so that we can become one. If you look at it in the South West, if PDP comes together, APC can never defeat us.


I want to talk about a Ben Shapiro video, and this is going viral on Twitter because it is truly disgusting, but as gross and reprehensible as what Ben Shapiro is going to say in this clip that you're about to see, honestly, it's a relief to know that at most he's just ambivalent about queer deaths, because there are two types of conservative bigots in this country. There are the ones who don't really care about LGBTQ plus suicide rates, hence why when we cite statistics about suicidal ideation among LGBTQ plus youth, they just don't really feel compelled to change their opinion and it doesn't resonate.  Now if you don't believe that there are people in that latter category where they genuinely want queer people to kill themselves, well just ask a queer person and they have plenty of anecdotes to share with you, but also let me point out this tweet from Alejandra who writes, I want everyone to see what they did to an LGBTQ plus senior housing project in Boston. This is the hate we're dealing with, whipped up by right wing influencers and politicians for profit and political gain. This is only getting worse, and as you can see, the message is very clear.  So at least Ben Shapiro isn't in that category, at least seemingly. You can argue that indirectly, you know, his rhetoric and what he pushes, the policies that he pushes, lead to queer deaths. But what he's going to vocalize here really is that, yeah, even if, you know, hate against trans people leads to them wanting to commit suicide more often, oh well. This is always the threat that the left likes to bring, and it starts an academia that bleeds all the way down.  Now, in American law, and in law typically, the idea that you can cause someone else to commit suicide is pretty dicey territory, generally. And you actually have some pretty specific evidence saying that somebody is telling somebody to commit suicide in order to even attempt to hold them accountable for their commission of suicide because there's an intervening actor, namely the person who's committing the suicide. The generalized point the left tries to make is that if you say that a man is a man and a woman is a woman, a bunch of people who believe they are members of the opposite sex will be so despondent about the fact that biological reality exists and that you are saying it.  There's only one problem with this line of argument.  There's no statistical evidence to suggest that the wildly disparate suicidal ideation rate among LGBT people suddenly corrects itself to meet the cis norm, meaning people who know what sex they are and it is their biological sex, the heterosexual norm. The suicide rates, the suicidal ideation rates do not suddenly become equal if you live in an area that is highly tolerant of LGBT. They're still wildly disproportionate, which suggests that there are a bunch of other intervening factors, including serious comorbidities with regard to anxiety and depression that attend upon LGBT identity. We're not allowed to talk about any of that. The idea is supposed to be that it's because Josh Howley is mean that trans kids are now suicidal. That is not true. There's no evidence to that idea. And by the way, even were that true, it would not mean that it is now Josh Howley's job to lie. Truth matters in a society. If some people are unable to handle truth, and this causes them to be more mentally ill or more suicidal, that is not the fault of the truth, we're going to have to find some different solutions. The solution is not society-wide falsehoods. That is infuriating. But to be fair to Ben Shapiro, he did say that we should find other solutions, suggesting that he does in some way, shape or form, want to address trans suicide rates. Now he's likely just placating people.  But okay, I'll take him at his word there, right? But what he's saying here is callous and it's also counterfactual. See, I have facts and data and peer-reviewed studies on my side, whereas Ben Shapiro's conjecture is based off of his feelings. So he says here, there's no statistical evidence to suggest that the wildly disparate suicidal ideation rate among LGBT people suddenly corrects itself to meet the cis norm. If you live in an area that is highly tolerant of LGBT, they're still wildly disproportionate. Now, what he's doing here is he's just making that up, because environmental factors do indeed change the suicidal ideation rate among trans youth. And really it's two things, if I could simplify all of this, that will decrease the rate of suicidal ideation. It's freedom and it's environment. Now the first question is why do LGBTQ plus people have a higher rate of suicidal ideation compared to their cis peers? Now, as Madeline Carlisle of Time Explains, the risk is due in part to experiences with gender dysphoria, as well as the way that they are treated in society based on their identity, says Dr. Amy Green, the vice president of Research at the Trevor Project, who co-authored the study. Now, the study that they're referencing is a peer-reviewed study published in 2021 in the Journal of Adolescent Health, and we'll get to that in a second. But first, I want to go to a meta analysis conducted by the Trevor Project where they lay out risk factors for trans and LGBTQ plus youth more broadly. One risk factor includes minority stress. This includes anti-LGBTQ messaging which we see from shows like The Daily Wire, LGBTQ based physical harm, discrimination, housing instability and change attempts by parents. This means that if a child comes out as trans and their family refuses to accept them and they force them to live as a gender that they don't identify with, well that leads to increased suicidal ideation. A third of queer youth experience parental rejection. 36% report physical threats or harm. 52% of LGBTQ middle schoolers and high schoolers are bullied. Discrimination is another factor. 73% of LGBTQ youth experience discrimination at least once in their lives. Trans and non-binary youth who experience discrimination are twice as likely to attempt suicide. Now, there are other risk factors, but the point is that we know what the causal mechanisms are, right?  The studies have been conducted. They're peer-reviewed. The data is out there. We know what leads to an increased rate of suicidality among LGBTQ plus youth. Environmental factors do matter. And conversely, since we know what causes increased rate of suicidality among LGBTQ plus youth, we also know what reduces the rate of suicidality among LGBTQ plus youth. Among the plethora of key protective factors in the Trevor Projects meta-analysis include having at least one accepting adult which can reduce the rate of suicide attempts among LGBTQ young people by 40%. A 2021 peer-reviewed study by the Trevor Projects researchers published in Transgender Health found that transgender and non-binary youth who reported gender identity acceptance from adults and peers had significantly lower odds of attempting suicide in the past year. LGBTQ youth who felt high social support from their family reported attempting suicide at less than half the rate of those who felt low or moderate social support. LGBTQ youth who live in a community that is accepting of LGBTQ people reported much lower rates of attempting suicide than those who do not. And it's not just environmental factors that have to be considered. If we give trans people the freedom, keyword freedom, to live their lives in the way that they want to, that also is incredibly beneficial. A study in the Journal of Adolescent Health examines data collected in a Trevor Projects survey of over 34,000 LGBTQ youth between the ages of 13 and 24 across the US from October to December of 2020. Of the respondents, 12,000 identified as transgender or non-binary. The study found that young people receiving gender and hormone therapy reported a lower likelihood of experiencing depression and suicidal ideation compared to young people who wanted the treatment but were not able to access it. Notably, the study found that among young trans and non-binary people under 18, receiving gender and hormone therapy was associated with nearly 40% lower odds of having had a suicide attempt in the past year. So when Ben Shapiro says, well, you know, we have to find out what these factors are that's leading to an increased rate of suicidality among LGBTQ plus youth, we've already found it. All we have to do is treat trans people with respect and give them freedom and that will decrease the rate of suicidality. But Ben Shapiro refuses to accept that because, you know, feelings over facts if you're Ben Shapiro and he's not willing to look at the data. Now he also says here, the idea is supposed to be that it is because Josh Hawley, referring to a viral video between Josh Hawley and Kara Bridges, a law professor, that if Josh Hawley is mean trans kids are going to become suicidal. In other words, if they see transphobia, it will make them suicidal. Ben Shapiro contends, this is not true. He says, there's no evidence to that idea. That's just completely wrong. And by the way, even if that were true, it would not mean that it is Josh Hawley's job to lie. Truth matters in a society. If some people are unable to handle truth and this causes them to be more mentally ill or more suicidal, that is not the fault of the truth. We're going to have to find some different solutions. The solution is not society-wide falsehoods. When it comes to society-wide delusions, well, our side, the transaffirming side, we actually have data and statistics and science to back up what we're saying. But when it comes to religion, there's absolutely no scientific evidence to confirm that any God from any religion exists. None whatsoever. But yet, we afford religious people the freedom and respect that transphobes like Ben Shapiro don't allow trans people to have. All that we're asking to make it very simple is to respect trans people and let them have the freedom to live their lives in the way that they want to. And Ben Shapiro says, no. But yet, we're expected to give them respect for their society-wide delusions of religion and pretend as if there's evidence for a God that doesn't exist. I mean, look, we can have a disagreement. This is part of living in a pluralistic society. I'm an antitheist.  But I would always defend your right, your freedom to be religious.  I don't believe that trans people should have the freedom to live their lives in the way that they want to. I think that we should ban parents or ban gender-affirming care for youth and perhaps investigate trans-affirming parents who seek out gender-affirming care that's medically necessary for their children and treat them like their child abusers. That's what Ben Shapiro is, in essence, saying here. He's also saying, I'm not even going to respect them.  If you tell me that these are your preferred pronouns, I'm not going to use them. So I'm not going to respect you. I'm not even going to offer you freedom.  I mean, this is the difference between conservatives and the left. We have respect. We're pro-freedom. We have data and scientific research, peer-reviewed studies on our side, whereas people like Ben Shapiro have hate and they refuse to allow people they disagree with the luxury to live their lives in the way that they want to. Again, I just want to make this very, very clear. Not to sound like a broken record. Trans and non-binary people are asking for a very, very small thing. Just respect them and give them the freedom to live their lives. If they tell you that their preferred pronouns are she, her, he, him, they, them, just respect it. You know, sometimes you're gonna make a mistake and slip up, that's fine. Correct yourself.  They're just asking for you to try to be respectful. Support their freedom to live their lives. But somebody who Ben Shapiro hired on his network, Jordan Peterson, doesn't even know if trans adults should be given the freedom to live their lives as the gender that they want. And these are people who talk about freedom of speech. Gender expression is a form of freedom of speech.  I mean, this is the essence of freedom, to deny someone gender expression is to deny them their freedom of speech, their freedom in general. It's to deny their humanity. They refuse to even treat other people with respect, refuse to give them the freedom that they expect for things that we disagree with. You see, if I support trans people, according to Ben Shapiro, we're just buying into their delusions.   That would be absurd. I would fight against that. But yet they're trying to ban gender-affirming care for trans youth, ban gender-affirming care for adults in some instances. If you're Matt Walsh or Jordan Peterson, two people on the Daily Wire network. So it's insane. Republicans are authoritarian. People like Ben Shapiro are authoritarian and believe them when they tell you that they don't support freedom. This is Ben Shapiro saying, I don't support freedom. I don't even support basic respect for fellow Americans. That really is embarrassing. He should feel bad about that, but he doesn't because he's hateful. He's ignorant. So he thinks that if there are people who are inferior to him in society, then it's justified to treat them with no respect, no humanity, not recognize their basic dignity. Well, I disagree. And this is why we can never come to an agreement. There's gonna be no reconciliation. We have to defeat you because I don't wanna live in a world where people are denied the freedom, where we don't even treat trans people with basic respect and human dignity.  I'm gonna fight you at every step of the way so long as you are going to impose your theocratic beliefs on everyone else.


a presentation of TFNN. The Tom O'Brien Show is produced every business day. Tom takes your phone calls toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER>. Let's go to our man, Alan Homo-Sasa. What's going on, brother? It's been wonderful. I went ahead and invested in your tiger dollars. And I went ahead and got your gold report. For a year and also your call letter and stuff like that. And I got over 50% return in one day, not counting everything else. But I just want to thank you. Tom's not perfect, but he tells you how to put your stops in and keeps your losses small. You can take your small losses, but then all of a sudden you'll be like Dave Root and you'll hit a home run.  And put the money in your pocket. OK, brother. You're awesome, man. Thank you. Now, Tom O'Brien. Welcome, folks. This is Tom O'Brien of TFNN. We have five days a week. We go seven hours a day. We go 24 hours a day on the internet at TFNN.com. Always remember, folks, whatever you think about, you bring about whatever you focus on, grows up, everyone's having a great day, safe day. It's a TGIF. And we're calling it the Christmas, folks. So Merry Christmas, Happy New Year, whatever type of holiday you're celebrating this weekend. Make it a great one, folks. Be impeccable with your word. Manifest your true intentions. Regardless of what language you speak, your intent will be manifested through the word. What you dream, what you feel, and what you really are, will be manifested through what you say each and every day. I love that cut. Make it a wise. Let's take a look at it out here. We have the Dow Industries up four. Nasdaq up 30, S&Ps up eight and a half. Gold, Gold contract up $14.10, trading at 2,065 an ounce. You get Silver down 16 cents, $24.42 an ounce. Lightsweak crude up 25 cents. 73 dollars, 64 cents, A barrel, notes and bonds. Ten-year note, flat, 112.21, the 30-year. Down two at 123.29, you get the ten-year right now yielding 3.895 and King dollar. King dollar's now at 151 ticks, trading at 101, 692, Euro 110, yen 142, British pound 127 to one U.S. dollar. Our phone number's<PHONE_NUMBER>. Give us a call, folks. Want to know what's going on in your world and the world of the S&Ps. Let's go take a look at what we have out here. So, you know, we know that you have the aspect of no liquidity out here today. We take a look at the spy, you know, the spies in an ABC structure up, man. You know, we're at 473, 502 is the number. You know, so we'll see if we get there or not. At bottom line, it's an ABC upmarket, folks. And, you know, you put this on a weekly, I'll show it on the weekly, it's a clean ABC, man. You know, you can see A to B, blew away the B point, blew it away with volume last week. You know, so we haven't even reached the highs yet, but you do have that ABC structure up as you do inside the NDX 100 also. Doesn't mean, you know, that, yeah, you can't get negated, but my take is that we're gonna go. The reason my take's gonna go is, let me go right here. You go into the note and bond market. When you go into the note and bond market, the bottom line, you can see, notes are hanging tough at 112, 21. This is the 10 year, right? And then the dollar is not holding price. You know, so the dollar is just grinding all the way down to this 99 level. We hit 101, 425 today. So my take is that, you know, we're gonna be there probably by, we can be there by next week. Well, no, the next week's only a three-day week. That was a four-day week. Yeah, that'll be pretty easy to do, actually. Let's go to our man, Frank and Gloucester. Frank, what's going on, brother? Hey, Merry Christmas, buddy. Merry Christmas. How you doing, man? Oh, very good. Thank you. Hanging in there. Good. Getting things done. But I'm loving your gold report. I'm making money there. Thank you. But I have this stock and I thought I had an ABC up and thought I had a clean break of a swing high with higher volume. But maybe you can take a look at it because it's gone nuts. EFC, Ellington Financial Corporation. Okay, so let's take a look. Ellington Financial. Okay, so low for the S10 to 81, the highest, 1441. Okay, so it's a mortgage finance company. Okay, a company investing residential and commercial mortgage back securities, consumer loans, collateral loans, non-mortgage derivatives. Okay, so they do, well, this quarter, that's interesting. They've been doing 24 million a quarter. This quarter, they're gonna be doing 42 million. Yeah. So I wonder if they took someone over. That's interesting. But most of the time when that happens, they take someone over. Okay. Okay, so let's take a look. Okay, so we good? Yeah, Frank, okay, let me, I would stay right where you're at. Let me, where are you looking at the ABC? The end of the A is the end of October. Is it on a daily or a weekly, Frank? I'm going to the point too, I got it. Is it? And up to 12. Is it a daily or a weekly? Daily. Daily, okay, cool.  Yeah, that's okay. The point is 1271 beginning of November and then it retraced, I don't know how you look at it, between 382 and 50%. Yep, yep. And it started taking off again and then it broke the B point with more volume. Considerably more volume. I'm just sitting there. There's about a million at the B point. I broke it with 1.2. Yeah, I see where you're looking at right now, right now. Okay, so you got this. But then there were those two huge down volume days the middle of December. Yeah. And it kind of got through the willies. They were okay, Frank, I think. The first one, I can see the first one that rejected lower price and it didn't get to the swing point, okay? And then the second one, you can make the case that was actually pushing higher with volume. Okay, yeah, yeah. I would say right where you are here, man. And then the main reason is that, on the weekly, this is nice, Frank. See this weekly, I just put this weekly up. That weekly is pushing this other swing point on volume in. And then- It's got a great dividend. I got a 13% dividend on it. Oh, let me look at this. Okay, so now they're saying it's eight and a half, but that's because it went up a little probably, okay? Yeah, yeah, right. And one of the main reasons that I'd stay right there, Frank, okay, is that the business they're in, right? I don't know how many commercial mortgages they're gonna do, but what has happened is that because this interest rate has come down so fast, you're gonna see mortgage companies make money again. You know- Well, that was the idea of getting into it, right? Yeah, you know. Just stay there for a second, Frank. We're gonna get a quick break and we'll be coming right back. Okay, sure. We have the Dow Industries. The Dow Industries right now folks trading up seven, yeah, it's next up 33, S&Ps up nine and a half. Stay right there, folks, we'll come right back. Currencies, commodities, and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity markets across the globe, which is why it's a great time to try out Teddy Kegstad's Tiger Forex Report. Teddy Kegstad breaks down the Forex markets every Monday using his 30-plus years of experience as a trading veteran of futures, Forex, stocks, and options. Teddy releases his weekly Tiger Forex Report every Monday morning with coverage of all the major currency pairs, including the Dollar Index, the Euro Dollar, Pound Dollar, Dollar Swiss, Dollar Yen, as well as many more. And he also has weekly coverage of the crude oil market and the 30-year T-bonds as they both influence Forex markets tremendously. 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In the Tiger's Den, you can look over the shoulders of Tom O'Brien and the other TFNN hosts while they analyze charts during their live Tiger TV programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas, interact with other Tigers and Tigresses as they share trading ideas, news analysis, and discuss the market action all trading day, even at night and on the weekends. The Tiger's Den at Discord is accessible on mobile or tablets as well. So it's always at your reach. To sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders, just visit the front page of TFNN.com. Toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER>. Welcome back folks. We're talking Frank from Foster. We're talking about BFC, which is Ellington Finance. So Frank, I think you're on to the right deal here, man. Meaning that, so technically what you have here folks is that you can see on the weekly, that bar from last week, we're pushing a swing point with volume. So when you push a swing with volume, it's like, okay, you want to go up to the next level, which in this case is the 1421. And as you said, Frank, you're getting a decent dividend out of it. The thing that's really cool is this. So picture what they do. What they do folks is that they buy mortgage backed securities inside the commercial market, inside the consumer loans, inside the collateralized residential and all of that. Now, I don't know what they have inside their portfolio, Frank, right? But what does happen is this, everything that they've been buying, let's say for the last year and a half to two years, right, is gonna have a high interest rate structure, okay? And so what ends up happening is that our interest rates are going down. Now, as they go down folks, and this is what's so cool about the bond market, is everything's reversed. As they go down, those mortgages that they bought go up dramatically in price.  Picture that they buy, okay? And when they do this, you get them in a discount. Now the discount they're talking about, I don't know what the exact discount is, but I'm just explaining inside of the bond market, when you're buying collateral backed mortgage, let's say the mortgage is at 7%, well, you might be buying it at 6.75 or something like this. It's not huge, it could be a quarter percent or something like that, okay? That being said, every one of those mortgages as we go down an interest rate structure, they will go up in principle. So I'd kind of stay right where you are, man, because any type of play like that to me is, I think we've turned the corner, man, you know what I mean? And right now we're still at restrictive rates and the market itself has brought the tenure down, it's just a matter of when the Fed will bring them down. Okay, that's what I was hoping you'd say, something like that, thank you.  This rate change is a huge, like ship folks that is turning, okay? We don't see this a lot. I mean, we saw the rate change two years ago and that was one of the biggest ones, yeah, in the last 40 years, you go from, you know, one, it's totally, man, totally exactly, exactly. And you know, this one, this one's a big one too, man. This one, this one's a big one. We're not going back to, you know, 1% 2%, okay?  Let's put it this way, it's, you know. Hey, my kids are into 4% mortgages, I couldn't be happier.  Now listen, listen to this, this is a, folks, you definitely wanna understand mortgages number one and number two would you wanna understand is when your children are growing up, you really wanna make sure they understand percentages because I gotta tell you the story. Listen to this story, this is a crazy story. Okay. I had sold this guy a home, right? Beautiful home. Now, picture, these homes now, they're going for like 1.1 million, okay? Now, picture, I've been doing this down in St. Pete since the crash, so I've been doing it for 12 years, okay? So this guy had bought a brand new home off me for 690,000, okay?  Cause that was the price then and that's a main home with the pool and the carriage home, right? Now here's the kicker. He had a mortgage at 2.2%, 2.2%, okay? He calls Bestford and I up about seven months ago, no, it's eight months ago now, eight months ago, right? Wants to sell the home, right? And they were moving back to Sarasota. He had been in Sarasota, moved up here, five years, wanted to move back to Sarasota, bought a new house in Sarasota, right? So I'm talking with him and great guy.  And I said to him, I says, have you done the numbers yet of what you're actually going to lose giving up a 2.25% mortgage? And folks, okay? When you do this over the course of like 30 years, we're talking about six or $700,000 compared to, for what he bought and then what he sold. We sold this house for 990 grand, okay? And so that was great for him, do you know what I mean? But you get the gist of it? It's like, there's so many other things that could have been done there. And it wasn't up to us to, you know, say that to him. He just wanted the sale. But right off the bat, you could have rented that house for 6,000 a month. And he still wouldn't, anyway, you get the gist of it.  So I mean, I think it's going to stay tighter than people think.  I think it's going to release some houses. I don't think it's going to release a lot of houses, man. You know? Because I think some of those numbers, you know, and because of the rent structure, the rent structures are high. So it's like, if you can afford to rent it, well, then rent it, and then you can still cash out, you know, when these rates get lower, you know? Anyway, so, yeah, that's- Good advice, Tom, some age advice. It's wild, man. Well, listen, man, you have a great Christmas, happy new year. Thank you for all the support, Frank. And tell everyone I said hi. You too. Okay, man. I gotta take this crazy new dog to the beach and it's 32 degrees because she has to run, so. That is awesome. She got a new dog. What kind of dog? What's her name? Oh, God, it's a mutt. It's Willow and- Perfect. Cross with a red lacy and an Australian cattle dog, and she's nuts. Perfect. Mutts are where it's at, man. Mutts are beautiful. I love mutts, man. Yeah, totally, man. Yeah, yeah. She's great. She's great. Totally, man. All right, buddy. Have a great one, have a safe one. Make sure you get that mutt, some good Christmas presents, some good bones. They need bones and they're gonna- I've already got them.  Well, I think we're past that. She was doing the baseboards and my wife put a Vaseline on there and put on some hot pepper and she woke up one day very thirsty. Oh, my God. So she doesn't do that again. I love it. I love it. Okay, man. Have a great one. Have a safe one. Down the stairs right now at 11. That's six of 35. That's a piece of nine and a half. Stay right there, folks. Come on right back. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. 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Oh, welcome back folks, I doubt. That was about 13, as except 40. S&Ps are up 10 and a half. Let's go to my man, George in Newport, Richie. George, what's going on, brother? Hello, Tom. Good afternoon. How are you? I'm doing great yourself. Yeah, great. Just calling to say hi. I've been following you for the last two years listening to your show occasionally. Well, thank you very much. I appreciate it, George. All the hard work you've done for us over the years. Well, I really appreciate you calling and saying hi. Yeah, to follow with the previous caller, yeah, the real estate market here in Florida has been dynamized over the years. Yes. No doubt about that. No, and especially where you live too, I know. So what's happening, let's give them a little geography here. So what happens, folks, is this, is that George is in Newport, Richie. That's north of St. Pete, right? And what you've had in Tampa is not the St. Pete also. And that's where all the growth is happening. Because that's about the only place they can go, right? Yeah, pretty wild. Yeah, I mean, the building has been going on crazy for the last, I've been in Florida for 20 some years, and you just can see now they're moving even north of a 54 way north, like 52, because 54 pretty much is built up the capacity. That's right. So now they're even going way further north. And that new Vecton Expressway is pretty amazing, man.  And if you ever come to Florida, and if you like nature, I mean, we have nature like beyond belief, man. I mean, it's just gorgeous. And this Nature Coast is something else between the, you know, whether you want to go in the rivers, or you're basically going in Crystal River. There's just so much to see, man. It's pretty amazing. Yeah, you've seen quite a bit. I've been here just about as long as you have, George. So, you know, there's no doubt. And you know what happened, folks, this year in the census, the census, you know, they just come out, they just, well, did the numbers a couple of days ago. I mean, this is from the last one, but, you know, the bottom line is that Florida, Texas, those are the states that are still growing. So pretty cool. And we, you know, there's still plenty of room. So, yeah. Pretty cool, George. So yeah, Tom, I wish you a Merry Christmas, you and your family, Merry Christmas. Thank you so much, and Merry Christmas to you and yours. Happy New Year. Thanks. And thanks for calling, man. I really appreciate it. My pleasure, Tom. Okay. Thank you for your show. Thank you, man. Have a great one, a safe one. Appreciate it, man. Let's go to John and Orlando. John, what's going on, brother? Good afternoon, Tom. How are you? I'm doing great, man, yourself. That's about to start. I wanna tell you, I've been listening to you since your radio days, back in 99, 2000. And I appreciate the call. I haven't heard your voice for a while, man. All the time, all the time. I appreciate what you guys do. But the most, what I really enjoy that you brought back to me, or this guy is as smart as a whip. I am so happy for that feedback. You know? Yeah, because I used to listen to him on your show on Thursdays, on the radio. Yep. And he was gone for quite a while. Yes, he was. And, yeah. Yeah. And this guy is really, I enjoy his technical analysis, his charting and all that, really, really. No, listen, man, I appreciate the feedback because, you know, I know, you know, we do them twice a week, but I can tell you, flat out, folks, okay? TFNN is about educating everyone, including ourselves, okay?  This guy taught me so much in 1992, 93, 94. We used to trade live. I mean, I trade a lot more than most people, okay? But the bottom line is, is that if you just study his stuff, and, you know, you have to study some of it because there's a lot of ratios, okay? But I'm telling you, man, no one has stuff like this.  He's one of a kind. He is. He's gotta be at the number one market, you know, time or our talent. It's like, he calls it pretty good. He calls it really, really good. He does. And what has happened over the course of the years is that, like anything else, when you have that much screen time, you know, he's developed a lot more ratios. And, you know, you get the gist and I really appreciate the feedback, man. Yes, yes, because the technology, you know, with technology advancing, I think he probably gained more knowledge himself, you know, over the years. Yes, absolutely. No, because you gotta keep changing. The market keeps changing, folks. You gotta keep changing, not changing, but there's more things that get, you know, anyway, it's really cool. And that's great feedback for all of us. Yeah, I wanna ask you about coin. I got in this at 80, around 86. Nice. This is Coinbase, folks. I've been holding it. Yeah. And it's very, very strong. It is. It's really strong. Coinbase, the low for the year, folks, is 31, the high's 178, so it's up 400%.   It doesn't mean they won't get sued by the SEC, but they seem to have it pretty clean.  But, you know, what you really wanna do is, and you're probably doing it, you know, John, is you gotta trade this off Bitcoin because the higher Bitcoin goes, the higher Coinbase is gonna go.   Yeah, I bought in the 80s, and then I sold because it was a parabolic move, which is great. I mean, it's like, I sold in 146, and then I got regretted it, and I got back in at 136, and now I'm holding it again, you know.  And that's the way that you can get, you know, just keep rolling them, you know, you just go out a little bit. And, you know, cause I'm looking at these calls right now, man, they're outrageous, man. Like, we're at 175, and if I go out to even February, watch this, this is sick. If you sell, you can sell the, you can sell the two 10s at 1230, 12 bucks. Wow. Yeah. Yeah, so. Yeah, a lot of premiums there. It is. Well, listen, John, man, have a great holiday, have a great Christmas, great new year. Thanks for calling, man. Thanks for the feedback on Tim Maude. I really appreciate it, man. Yeah, thank you. Thank you. Thanks, man. You too. Have a great one. Have a safe one. Stay right there, folks, we'll come right back. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them, using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities and Options Report today with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. For all the details and to start your subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com, TFNN Educating Investors. Biotech is booming, but for how long? 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Having the latest market advice can help you turn this chaos into a key for creating winning trades. At TFNN, we understand that it can be hard to find reliable market news. That's why each of our market experts offers their very own market newsletter. A must-have tool for every trader out there striving to find an edge in today's markets, TFNN newsletters cover every aspect of the markets so you can analyze the market before you trade. Try any of our great newsletters risk-free with our 30-day money-back guarantee. Just visit the newsletters tab on the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN, Educating Investors. TFNN has launched the Tiger's Den, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours, the Tiger's Den, available to all tigers and tigers for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com. This program is brought to you by Vista Gold, traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. Welcome back, folks, I doubt. That was down 39, now it's except 19. S&Ps are off four and a half, so check this out, man. This is, I'm trying to find an inflation calendar, but I don't have my PC right next to me. Anyway, listen to this, this is like amazing, man. So I'm gonna bring this over. So what happened this morning, folks, okay? This is like insane. So the United States this morning claimed the seabed of the US continental shelf, okay? That comes off of Alaska. Now check this out, this is what's amazing. The United States extended its claims on the ocean floor by an area twice the size of California, secure on rights, of course, to everything that's on the bottom. Now this is the kicker, man. Wait till I show you this. You gotta remember something. So we bought Alaska off Russia in 1867 for $7.2 million, two cents an acre, okay? That's what we paid. Now watch this, though. If you're watching Tiger TV, look at this. So the way that the international boundaries work is that when you do have actually continental shelves, continental shelves submerged are the property of the closest country, okay? That goes back, it doesn't go back that many years. When I was reading this article, it goes back about 30 or 40 years that they signed this whole deal. But when you look at this, look at this just for a second because two different things you're gonna see here. Number one, Alaska's gonna, I mean, Russia's gonna be going out of their mind that they sold Alaska, number one. But the continental shelf itself, this thing is like freaking huge. And then what is also going to happen, this is where, you know, Canada is huge, there's no doubt about that. And there's gonna be a little overlay with Canada, so I suspect we'll make some kind of deal with Canada because we're grabbing parts, well, it has this angle that we're grabbing parts that contested also. But just look at the size of that grab. That is a land grab, folks, in a monster way. And, you know, it's a legit land grab. Well, it looks like it's legit in land grab anyway. And you can see the difference. See the difference on this map when you go down to the Atlantic Ocean because there, what ends up happening, the shelf drops off and then it's just wide open. Where up in the Arctic, that shelf goes that far.  I've never dove with tanks going down, but off the Cayman Islands, we get out of the Caymans a lot because it's only an hour and 20 minutes away.  Well, you're seeing it down 50, 60 feet. But this thing drops off like 2,000 feet, folks. And it's really cool. A shelf and a drop off is absolutely phenomenal if you've never seen one. I'm sure there's probably on YouTube or something, there's probably some of them. And that's where you talk about fish and species and talk about layered. That's when you actually see layered schools of fish and how the feeding gets one on top of the other and top of the other. It's phenomenal, man. I mean, it's just, you're talking about life, man. Teaming life in a monster way. And yesterday was the solstice, so now what we have, especially here in Florida, which is really cool, well, for all of us, every day gets longer now. Excuse me. Now what will happen in Florida, and this happens, let's see, there's a 20 second, yeah, we get it about another 40 days, 45 days. And about 45 days to 50 days, folks, okay? What ends up happening is that the fish in South America, they stop making their way up the coast. And when you see the water, it is just a mind blow, man, because the different specimens of fish that come right off the coast going, it takes them a while to go up to New England, Canada, but we have this twice a year. And it's just really cool, man. I mean, the dolphins are always here because there's so much fish, but when you actually see the migration of them, it is phenomenal. And where Steve lives, the difference, on the Gulf Coast where we are, that's the West Coast of Florida, you have to go out a lot further. We don't have to go a lot further to see the migration, but for bigger fish, we have to go out a lot further, like at 35 miles. Where Steve Rhodes lives, right? You literally only have to go out about 500 yards. That's how the drop-off and Fort Lauderdale, Boca, all that area that literally is about 500 yards. And you are talking about every specimen in the world, not in the world, but that's going up. And the difference is the larger fish, the whole ball of wax, rougher water, but beautiful fishing, man, insane fishing. And market-wise out here, hey, listen, coming into 2024, folks, okay, what you want to keep your eye on is keep your eye on the rates, keep your eye on the dollar. Because I suspect what we have right now is that rates number one, yeah, let me put this up for 10 year because I'm gonna put this 10 year yield up chart up first. Because this is gonna be one of the signals also. Tim Ward, we're gonna use his ratios, no doubt about that. But one of the signals here, see, this is a 3.8. If I take this and you put this on a few, you're gonna see that the bottom of the consolidation, which that's where I think we're going, that's 3.24, okay? So when this market stops going higher, okay? So if you're bearish in the market, you want to keep this in mind. When this gets down here, this is when the market's gonna be, I mean, it's extended right now, but it's gonna be extended beyond belief. And see how much support's there? I think we're gonna be trapped here for a bit in the 10 year, which is 3.24. And then we go over to the dollar and you want to combine these. And then you take the dollar and then we put the dollar and you can see the bottom of the consolidation and we're getting close to it. It's 99, 98 in that area. When those two line up, that's gonna be, I suspect, the S&P maybe finishes ABC up by then. The ultimate would be the ABC finishes ABC up by then. The Q's finishes ABC up by then. The dollar and bonds come back to that point. Then you can hit the shot button. Until then, I wouldn't be hitting no shot button, man. And this is a 1996 market, folks. 96, 97, 98, you know, home ball of wax. Stay right there, folks, come right back. Are you ready to take your trading to the next level? 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Go to tfnn.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. That's tfnn.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. Welcome back, folks. That was down 14. That was like as up 31 S&Ps are up eight. And that's kind of all she wrote, coming into this Christmas holiday, folks, okay? So let's go take a look at, actually, no, let's look at the gold market before we call it a day here. So we look at this. Yeah, see, this is the second spike. This is, you know, we got that huge spike and that has volume in it. Today wasn't bad, 161,000 contracts. This thing's gonna blow away all that stuff. Yeah, we know we had an expansion. This is good, here, check this out, man. We took out the consolidation of the last six days and it has volume. And that's amazing for being the Friday before, you know, the holiday. So this high volume spike up here that went up, gave the whole thing up, didn't go break a swing. We're going all the way up there. And my bigger picture is, and I'll put this up, this is gonna be the 2,500 number. And you know what, hey, the ABC structure up, this is a really large ABC structure up, and it's on the monthlies. And you can, you know, I mean, look at this thing, man. I mean, you know, huge consolidation, which makes it even more powerful. You broke the consolidation. We already broke the consolidation. So you get the huge leg up. You're at 2,052. It's not gonna be hard to get to 2,500, you know. That's the next, that's the move that we're in right now. That's my take on this thing. We actually are in this move. And, you know, 400 bucks in gold, yeah. That can take a while, I don't know. All you get an incident in the Red Sea and it's not gonna take long at all. You know, they're gonna have to be dealing with this Red Sea, man. It seems like they, yeah, that's what it comes down to. Oh, as you remember folks, LeBak and Claudia Hotout, the bull can run you over and thank God there's always another trade. Health happens in prosperity. Have a great Christmas. Whatever you celebrate and have a great one, folks. Have a safe one and come back Tuesday morning. We're kicking everything off again. Time to kick everything off Tuesday morning. Have a great one, folks.