So, we've got 10 more minutes, Francis, is that right? Yes. Okay. So, I could either like go like crazy on 30 slides in 10 minutes or I could sort of stop here and take a lot of questions and maybe go over something that you do not understand and I think probably that would be better. And then you can read the other material in principle component analysis, which is pretty small anyway. I wasn't going to talk too much about it. So, which one do you think is best? Okay. So, here it is, that's the definition. Now, I could give you a definition, but I'm going to try to tell you what it does, which I think is a lot more important than just the definition. So, you can have the definition, that's nice, but let's go through the examples, which would be better. So, there's two things. So, people often talk about singular value decomposition or principle component analysis. These are almost exactly the same things. So, PCA is kind of like doing singular value decomposition or SVD when you standardize your data. But in fact, the idea behind it, it's exactly the same. It's just the way you define it is slightly different. The idea of principle component analysis is to say, okay, let's try to look at our dataset. Typically, it will be a multivariate dataset. So, it could be a gene expression dataset or flow cytometry dataset. We've got several variables. And because you've got lots of variables, it's very difficult to visualize a multivariate dataset when you have more than two dimensions, right? Because in fact, we're not very good at looking at things, at data sets that have more than two dimensions because it's hard to visualize on the computer or on a piece of paper, right? Three dimensions, you can still do it. But still, it's quite difficult. So, what principle component analysis is trying to do is to say, okay, let's try to look at the data and let's try to put it in a way that's going to be much easier to visualize. Let's try to reduce the dimension of the data by only keeping the information from the data that's most relevant. That is, what we're going to try to do is to look at the data in a way that shows us the most viability in the data. So, let me show you an example of this. So, why is it nice? Because it's a dimension reduction technique. And this is very nice because sometimes you've got a huge dataset multivariate, you don't know how to look at it, it's very difficult. So, you can sort of simplify the dataset. And this is going to be easier maybe to do some clustering. And you're going to hear about clustering next. Or maybe doing some discriminant analysis. So, let's say you've got two big cords of patients, one that have some kind of disease, one that don't have the disease. And you'd like to discriminate between the two by taking a sample of something. But if the sample is multivariate, like you do a flow cytometry experiment, you take a blood sample, and then you've got tons of markers, you have no idea how to look at this data. It's multivariate. How can you find something that will help you discriminate with it? So, maybe you can try to reduce the data in something that's simpler to look at, and that will help you in trying to discriminate. In my opinion, it's most important when you do exploratory data analysis. So, we're trying to find the most important signal in data. And this will help us in projecting the data to look at things as we like. So, here's an example. So, this is a two-dimensional dataset. It's really a taller example. But I wanted to start with something like that because it's going to be easier to understand. So, what principal component analysis is trying to do is to look at the data, here's two-dimensional. And it's going to say, try to find the direction in the data that has the most variability. And that's this one in red. It's saying that if you follow this line, this is where there is the most variability in the data. And this is called the first principal component. Then after that, it's going to say, let's try to find the second direction where there's the most variability that's orthogonal to the first one. That will be the green one. In fact, here, there's only two dimensions. So, you can only have two orthogonal directions. So, the first one is the red. The second is the green. So, the idea of principal component analysis is that you are given these things in two-dimension. Maybe you'd like to reduce the dimension. Here, you can say that there's almost nothing going on in that direction. So, you could almost say, well, I only need that direction to look at the data, to explain most of the variability in the data. So, the first idea is to say, OK, maybe I can remove some of the things that I don't really need. So, here, it's a two-dimensional plot. But in fact, you can see that the green dimension, the green direction, does not show you very much. There's nothing going on in that direction. So, you could just retain these directions. So, you're going from a two-dimensional to one-dimensional data set. Then the other thing is, you might say, OK, maybe there's a better way to look at this data. Maybe I shouldn't use the x and y-axis like I have. But maybe I could rotate it so that the red line becomes my x-axis, and the green line becomes the y-axis. And it will be easier to visualize. Is that sort of clear what we're doing? So, trying to find the line of the most changes, the most variability in the data, then you're going to look for the orthogonal that is the most variability in the data. And in three-dimension, it's the same. You're looking at a data set in three-dimension. You're trying to look for the most variability in the data. Then you're looking to one that's orthogonal and the most variability in the data. You're going to find that one. And then orthogonal to these two, you don't have any more choices because it's three-dimension. So, let's say the dimension is n. Let's say you found the first n minus 1 principle components. Then the last one is given because it has to be orthogonal to all the others. Typically, you could do it either way. You could either say, I'm going to try to look. It depends what you want to look at. So, let's say you've got two-dimensional array genes cross samples. You might say, my variables are samples. And I'm going to try to look at the samples in terms of their gene expression. Or you could say, the other way you're going to say, I'm going to try to look at gene expression as a function of the sample. So it depends what you care about and what you want to look at. So typically, it will be genes. But sometimes, people want to look at samples. For example, let's say you've got 20 cancer patients. And maybe you'd like to explore the different types of cancer to see if there's any subtypes or something. So in that case, maybe you want to look at the samples in function of the expression. So this is kind of looking at the gene signature. Things that maybe will help you to visualize the different subtypes of cancer. And it's hard to visualize that when you've got 10,000 genes. But maybe there's only a few genes that will help you to discriminate between the subtypes. Well, here it represents nothing because it's a toy example. But in that case, it would be yes. So here, this is another toy example. So there's sort of two artificial clusters. And you can see that this time, PCA is saying this is the first direction where there is the most changes, the red one. And then this is the green. And it's orthogonal to the red. And this is the value of the contribution to each of the principal components. So you can see that this one explains most of the variability. And then this one explains a bit of the variability. So then using principal component, you can say, OK, let's try to rewrite the axis so that the first PCA becomes my x-axis, or the y-axis, and then the green, the x-axis. So you just rotate using the principal component and say, this is the best way to look at it. So I'm going to show you some examples that are more interesting, because these are sort of toy examples. Actually, let's go in R. And I'm going to show you that, because I think this is pretty interesting. So this is a data set that's available in R. It's called the crabs data.  I'm going to show you the data.  There's some blue and orange crabs, male and female. So you should have four groups, male, female, blue, and orange. So if I look at the data, this is what I see. So OK, and you're measuring four variables. And I can't remember what they are, but I think it's the length of the legs of the body or things like that. And based on the four variables that you measure, you will want to see the four different classes of crabs, either they're blue female, blue male, orange female, orange male. And in fact, here I show you with the same balls the different classes of crabs. And you can see that it's very difficult to discriminate between the four subgroups. They are almost all of the same here. So if you look at the data, this is all the possible 2D scatter plus using the four variables that we have in the data set. I can't see very much where the four groups are, even though I put the samples. So you can see there's a triangle plus circles and the cross. It's very difficult to see the four different groups. It's just because naturally maybe these four variables, these four projections are not the best way to look at the data. But maybe what we can do is we can say, OK, let's try to do singular value decomposition to try to find maybe directions that might be more interesting, whether it's the most variability, and try to project the data into these directions. So here I show you another two-dimensional plot. So if I zoom in into one of these 2D scatter plot, you can see there's one group over here. There's another group over here. There's one here, one here. So you can sort of see there's a slight difference between the grouping, but it's very difficult to see them. Now if I do a singular value decomposition and I'm going to plot the principal component or the data projected on the principal component, this is what, OK, this is just plotting the first and second principal component. So still you don't see it's a bit better, but you don't see a clear separation of the groups. So remember, there's several principal components. So typically you will look at the first few that explain most of the variability. So here I tried one and two, but in fact, one and two wasn't the best. So I've tried also two and three to see what I get. And if you try two and three, you're going to get something that much better, OK? So here this is two and three, and you can see that there's a much better separation. There's one group, another group, one here, and one here. So looking at the data that way, you can actually see a much better separation of the four groups, OK? And in fact, you can see that if you take into consideration the four variables, you can almost separate or discriminate the four groups. But it's very difficult to do it. There's information coming from the four variables. And if you were just to look at 2D scatterplots, you wouldn't redo that. But if you do principal component analysis, you kind of see that here, yeah. So this is really exploratory. At this point, I'm not trying to discriminate or anything. It's just to try to help me to visualize the data. Maybe now you could say, OK, I've done PCA, and I'm going to keep the first three or first four principal components. And then I'm going to try to do clustering on these. And you're going to talk about clustering next. But this could help you to maybe cluster your data better. OK, so that's a good question. So typically you don't really know how many you should keep. But what you could do, so here I look at an expression data set running a bit at a time. But I'm just going to show you that plot. Actually, it's in my slides. What you can do is that when you do PCA, not only will give you the principal component, but it will also give you the strength of each principal component. So here you can plot that kind of like a bar plot. Here you can see this one is very important. This one's pretty important. This one's pretty important. And then it's becoming slightly flatter over here. So you could sort of look at this plot. Of course, it's going to be slightly subjective. But you can see that after the first three components doesn't change very much. There's not much of a gap. So maybe you could stop. So looking at these kinds of plot can help you a little bit in choosing. But there's been lots of debates, lots of theory on how you could sort of choose. People will typically say, well, maybe pick the first principal component that explains maybe 80% of the variability on your data set or something like that. But there's no rule. There are more rule of thumbs that you can use. Which component is it? Each component will be kind of like a new axis in your system. So it's kind of like a direction where you should look at. So it's like a vector. So a component will be OK. Let's say you're looking at data in two dimension. A component will be like a line, like the direction in which you should look. So it's like a direction. Well, it's difficult to do 3D plots, because you don't see very much with 3D. So typically you will do 2D. Yeah, but you can in R as well. You can do very nice 3D plot. But the human eye is not very good at looking at 3D plots, except if you can maybe rotate some of these and do fancy things. But it's very difficult. So PCA can help you to get a good 2D plot. Because if you just do the basic 2D projection, sometimes you won't see anything. But if you say, OK, let's try to do PCA to look at the directions where there's the most changes, where it's the most interesting, then maybe doing just a simple 2D on the PCA will help you. PCA1, PCA2, PCA3. No, it's a good question. So if the variables are different, if the units of the variables are different, then it's basically the PCA will be a linear combination of the original variables. So if you've got two things that are sort of very different, you won't be able to put a measure on it, because it will be very difficult. And that's one of the criticism of PCA is that people would say, well, that's nice. But then the variables that I get, I cannot reinterpret them, because there's no scale anymore, there's nothing. So that's why I really say it's a way to explore data, to visualize data. But I wouldn't necessarily say it's a way to do statistical inference. It's just a way to explore data sets. It's different. So cluster analysis will try to cluster. PCA1 will not try to cluster, it will just individualize data. So cluster analysis, you might cluster, but then you still have the same problem is that the way you're going to look at your data might not be the right way. PCA1 will say maybe you can look at it in some other projection. If you've got in 3D, for example, you're trying to say, OK, I've got these three dimensions. These are the axes. But maybe this is not the right way to look at it. Maybe I should rotate it in another way. And this is the way I'm going to look at the data better. So it's just a way to explore the data. Whereas clustering, you're trying to do inference. You're trying to say there are that many clusters, and here are the points in the clusters. So I think it's time to stop, take a break, and I'm glad to take questions now.


Hello friends, we finally got news of Pokemon Stadium coming to the Nintendo Switch. We're going to cover all of the details in today's video. So as we know, Pokemon Stadium 1 and 2 were announced to be coming to the Nintendo Switch a little while ago now, but we had no concrete dates with when they would be available on the systems. But as of this morning, we've had the announcement that the release date for Pokemon Stadium will be on April the 12th, so a week on Wednesday we will be able to play Pokemon Stadium on the Nintendo Switch. You can see over on Serabee they did a bit of an update with the news here. It has been confirmed that Pokemon Stadium will be made available on the Nintendo Switch on the Nintendo 64 software next week April the 12th, so not very long at all. This game is available for all people with the Nintendo Switch online expansion pack subscription. This game is the Nintendo 64 game that released in 1999, so very long time ago and has you battle through various modes as well as play mini games which is one of the best aspects of the games in my opinion. The big bad caveat to all of this is though that Nintendo have kind of doubled down on some news that was a little bit concerning the first time around when the initial trailer dropped and now they're kind of reiterating the point that you will not be able to transfer Pokemon into these games. Now there is a part of me that thinks that this is just normal because at the moment although it's suspected we haven't got red blue yellow gold silver crystal ruby sapphire and emerald confirmed coming to this online subscription right. So it wouldn't make sense for them to say yes you can transfer Pokemon in because it kind of lets the cat out of the bag it kind of hints that these games are coming and if they want to do a big announcement a big reveal kind of hype up the fact that these older games are coming finally to the Nintendo Switch then that news would kind of hinted that and maybe they don't want to do that so I wouldn't discount it fully down the road that we will be able to transfer Pokemon into these games because I think the big thing about Pokemon Stadium Pokemon Stadium 2 is the fact that you can trade in your Pokemon to these games to play with them in the gym battles and all the other facilities that are in these games that's a big feature about it otherwise you're kind of left using rental Pokemon which are not probably the best Pokemon you want to be using and kind of takes a little bit of the fun away so that would be my take on it I think that somewhere down the line if we get red blue yellow and all the older games kind of confirmed for the Switch this might change there might be compatibility there although we'll have to just wait and see and on the back of the announcement we also got an update for a little trailer as well for the stadium games and I think you've probably seen it before the interesting thing about this news as well there was a video linked to this but unfortunately it is literally like minutes ago just being taken down I was gonna play through it capture the point on the video where it does go through and say Pokemon will not be able to be transferred into it but it looks like the video itself has actually been taken down which is quite interesting because it was there I watched it right before recording this video and so interesting that there is nothing there at the moment about the Nintendo Switch and you can see on all the sites that it's being featured on that this video is not appearing at all and I'm just coming over to the Nintendo Switch online page just to see if there's any updates here but it's still listed as upcoming games is not update about Pokemon Stadium on here or anything like that but very strange that the video has went down and it'll be interesting to see what the video looks like if it does when it finally does go back up because I have no idea why it has been taken down because it didn't seem to be anything other than what we'd seen before in the first trailer there just seem to be an updated text with the Pokemon not compatible or be able to be transferable into these games in that video and a little bit of a shame that I can't actually show you it yet but that is the news of course we are gonna be getting Pokemon Stadium on the expansion pass plus remember is the plus subscription where you get the N64 with Pokemon Stadium next Wednesday so that will be the 12th so like I say as well I think the fact that we haven't got any of the old games on the switch yet or an announcement that they're even coming to the switch they may not even end up coming to the switch so this might just be an old point but I think once they are announced if there is possibilities to transfer from those games into Pokemon Stadium then this statement might be reversed and you may be able to transfer Pokemon and you just got to keep your fingers crossed because it is one of the big appeals of these games anyway friends that is everything for today if there's any further updates on Pokemon Stadium or if there's any news going on off that video that has been taken down weirdly which I don't really get why we'll do an update on the channel and let you know everything all about it so thank you so much for tuning they found today's video useful please drop a like do subscribe to the channel and I will see you all in another video very soon so until then friends take care


That looks like a Spanish restaurant. I love that. Sounds like it should be a shop. Chocolate mocha extra caramel? It's caramel.


Perfect, yes thanks. So what where I move to now is where in some sense the South African policy debate is in February earlier on this year South Africa and its budget announced its intentions to explore concretely explore the opportunity of introducing a carbon tax in 2014 and so in a way it's in a period of evaluation how best to design an instrument that could potentially be adopted by the South African government and implemented in a couple of years time. This is some work that we did with the National Treasury with Constantine's group and there's a large number of people involved and I'm the lucky one who gets to present it. It's been a really exciting process. What we're looking at is in some ways picking up where where Allison left off and building on the database that that that Rob was talking about earlier looking at at looking at what the additional economic impacts of a carbon tax would be and whether or not what level of a carbon tax would be needed in order for South Africa to meet to meet those very ambitious emissions reduction targets that Allison was just talking about that came out of that LTMS process that roundtable discussion process. I'm not going to draw too much on this because this is just another way of looking at some of the data that Rob's already looked at except to say that you can see very clearly that emissions you can see very clearly that emissions per unit of energy use which is how dirty is South Africa's energy and you can see that South Africa is as right at the top amongst all the countries in the world as one of the dirtiest energy countries and also a fairly high energy user per person. All I'm drawing from this graph is just to convey just the challenges that are involved for South Africa to adopt a low carbon growth path that it really requires South Africa not to follow the path that the rest of the developed world has followed. It has to sharply turn the corner and so this pledge of reducing carbon emissions by 42 or greenhouse gas emissions by 42 percent by 2025 even though it's relative to a baseline scenario that is very dirty very carbon intensive even that is a very challenging proposition for South Africa. So what we what we did with with Constantine's group as we developed an energy it's it's not really a true energy model that's the work we're doing now but it's an energy it's an economy wide economic model of the South African economy with a lot of energy detail in it right we're at this stage now working with Alison and Bruno and Tara to try and get a proper energy economic model link but we're going to be picking up from where Alison left off we'll get to that in a second what we do is we start with the database that Rob was talking about where it has a great deal of sectoral detail household detail and a lot of information on the on the energy sector and this is a mathematical representation of the South African economy we parameterize the model based on the data that Rob was presenting and then we run the model forward into the future in a way as an unconstrained emissions scenario so without any attempts to try and curb emissions to replicate out well to some extent follow what what Alison was was talking about was the was the baseline scenario for the emissions reduction target and then we're going to impose on the model the energy sector right so what what investments are being made in the energy sector and we're going to treat those as predetermined those are determined by a different policy process than the carbon tax they're determined by South Africa's negotiated the southern government's negotiated investment plan with the national electricity provider so we're going to take that as given and we're going to ask what is the additional implications of a carbon tax right what our what level of carbon taxes needed over and above the electricity build plan in order to meet the national emissions reduction targets and this model which is a dynamic model allows us to trace the the the deviation in economic growth employment and a number of detailed economic indicators from that baseline so not not just changes in emissions right as I said the model has a lot of energy detail Alison was talking about just how complex the South African energy sector is particularly for a developing country we have coal natural gas and crude oil coming into the system a number of ways of producing electricity number of ways producing fuels one of them I think is the dirtiest in the world the coal to liquid or if it's not it's a good contender and and so these these complex interior interactions between fossil fuels in order to produce the electricity in the fuel at the end and then its transmission to the final users all of this complex interactions are included inside the model very simply put we also include inside the model a mechanism for improving energy efficiency so reducing the energy intensity based on prices in other words if prices rise produces in our model start to find ways to try and reduce their energy intensity to have fewer inputs going into the energy inputs going into the production process but they are limited to the extent in which they can just simply respond to prices by just what's happening to the level of investment going into their sectors in other words if you're a sector whose returns are declining you are very limited in how quickly you can you can retool your factory to use more energy efficient machinery right whereas if you are very attractive and fast-growing sector you are far more likely to be replacing your capital and being a bigger recipient of new capital investment every period and so what that means is that you're going to find it much easier to adapt to changes in energy prices so we capture both changes in energy supply and energy efficiency we're going to run a number of scenarios the most obvious one is what is the impact of the domestic carbon tax if South Africa introduces a carbon tax what is the impact of the on the economy we're going to imply this cop this carbon tax at the point at which fuel into the fossil fuels into the economy right so it's it's a tax on the fossil fuels it's going to start at $3 per tonne in 2012 and it's going to gradually rise to 30 US dollars by 2022 right and what's going to happen this is a very important part of the story about carbon taxes what's going to happen to the tax revenues that are collected how are they going to be recycled back into the system and we're going to start with this basic scenario by saying let's just recycle it back into the South African economy by reducing sales taxes uniformly this is a neutral adjustment everybody's buying goods in the economy so everybody benefits by recycling those taxes back into the economy we're going to look at some other options later on then we're going to look at a domestic border tax adjustment as Rob was saying there's a lot of carbon embodied in the imports coming into South Africa the plastic buckets coming from from different parts of the world they could be coming from a very clean Iceland or they could be coming from a very dirty China but there is carbon embodied inside that plastic bucket just because it's not produced in South Africa there are some arguments that if you are consuming it you should pay for the tax that with the carbon that was that was burnt in order to produce it likewise if you are not consuming the goods that you are producing in your country you're exporting them to Europe then it's the Europeans who should pay for using the carbon embodied in the commodities that they are buying from South Africa right so it's a rebate on the carbon within exports and it's an additional tax like an excise tax on the imports coming into the country and then we're going to look at that foreign border tax adjustment what happens if South Africa says I'm not admitting I'm not going to reduce my I'm not going to introduce a carbon tax or reduce emissions but the rest of the world says actually no we're going to tax you based on the carbon inside your products so it's a tax on South African exports into foreign markets this is very much a concern that Allison was talking about that South Africa feels it is very real and then finally we look at some alternative revenue recycling options let's move away from a neutral scenario and let's look at what happens if we reduce corporate taxes in which would favour businesses you will see or if we if we take all the carbon tax revenues and we transfer them to poorer or to households to poorer households right like I said we start from the end of the decision on what to build in the energy sector right so the base case or the baseline the unconstrained emissions scenario for South Africa has an energy profile that looks or an electricity profile that looks something like the graph on the left you can see the gray is coal and coal is going to dominate electricity supply into the future additional analysis that was done on the far right says well what what might the least cost energy plan look like for for South Africa if it wanted to reduce its emissions by 42% and you can see the green there is a much higher composition contribution from renewables right so there's a shift there's a much greater cost to this so the cost on the baseline is 108 billion US dollars over the next 20 years on the far right hand side 25 years on the far right hand side it's 171 billion dollars in energy investments it was decided that that was potentially too expensive and so that South Africa has adopted at least for now the middle case scenario the policy adjusted scenario right which which tries to balance the financial cost of of meeting emissions but also trying to reduce those emissions themselves we don't quite know what the cost is because it was never reported but but you can see it somewhere in between okay presumably it's the cost is somewhere in between as well and we would imagine it's closer to the left what this means is that the energy the electricity sector which accounts for half of South Africa's emissions is only going to reduce emissions by 19% by 2025 so it's going to fall far short of pulling its own weight in terms of meeting the the emissions reduction targets and that means that the heavy lifting is going to have to be done by a carbon tax I'm going to shoot through some slides there's a lot of detail in the paper which is actually I saw it was one of the few that was printed out and being handed out for free despite the carbon implications the what you can see here are changes in emissions reduction scenarios and the the big thing to draw away from this is that what we found is that a 30 US dollar per ton carbon tax is needed in order for South Africa to meet its emissions reduction targets given that the electricity sector is only pulling a certain portion of its weight in in meeting those targets you can see that if we just if we didn't introduce a carbon tax and we just implemented the the electricity bill plan we would only reduce emissions at the national level by 8.6% but but the but with 30 dollars per ton and tax on the rest of the economy we can see that the other sectors reduce there would have to reduce their emissions by by more than 50% and that's what's necessary in order for South Africa to meet its emissions targets what is the implications for economic growth because this is what we're focused on economic growth and changes in employment what we looked at are different levels of carbon taxes and what are the implications for economic growth which is the white line on the left hand graph and what's the implications for employment these are reductions in GDP growth in 2025 relative to the the unconstrained the who cares scenario and so you can see with the 30 US dollar per ton carbon tax South Africa is losing about 1.1.05 1% of GDP as a result of the carbon tax and you can see what what is interesting and then when in a sense this is an abatement cost curve and you can see for at the national level and you can see that the cost ratchet up very quickly after about 20 US dollars per ton right the reason for that is because of course when the carbon tax is first implemented we start to reduce our emissions in the sectors where it's easiest to reduce them right there are a few sectors where emissions are very high and if worst-case scenarios we shut some of them down those are particularly the mining sectors and so to begin with and this is what's being shown on the right hand side most of those emissions reductions or the sources of GDP losses at low carbon taxes are the gray areas which are the mining sectors that's where that's where the GDP is lost but as the tax starts to increase we have to start squeezing a lot of sectors that actually are not that carbon intensive those are the service sectors which are the white at the very the white shaded area at the very top and so it gets increasingly more difficult to reduce those emissions further over time if the electricity sector doesn't play and pull its own share okay what is the implications for income distribution oh one more minute the um what we have there is this is changes in household consumption or in a way a measure of welfare with and without the carbon tax and you can see how we have on the bottom x-axis we have the poorest households on the left and the richest households on the right and we can see that the the sales tax is in fact a very neutral revenue recycling approach households do lose um welfare they do their consumption is lower as a result of the carbon tax in part because the economy is smaller as a result of the carbon tax but the impacts are fairly smoothly distributed across the income distribution on the other hand if we um if we recycle the revenues by reducing the corporate tax rate which is a fairly attractive option for a lot of businesses in other words this could come about through accelerated depreciation of those existing energy intensive technologies so that you can replace them more quickly um you can see that a lot of the benefits accrue to the highest income households who are the major beneficiaries of the dividends that are being paid by um but from corporations likewise this and and of course the situation then becomes worse for the low-income households we're not receiving those benefits or the reduction in the sales tax conversely if we switch to a social a social transfers program where we use these revenues to expand on existing social transfer programs then of course a lot of the benefits fall on to the higher income households and those uh on to the lower income households and the higher income households are then worse off relative to some of the other scenarios what is most interesting for us is remember we did that scenario we said what happened if the rest of the world imposes a tax right and but South Africa doesn't opposes a tax on South African exports and there you can see that that's the black line at the bottom and that's almost the worst case scenario for every single household group and one of the reasons why is because there's no taxes collected by South Africa that could be recycled right so one of the advantages of of being a fast mover and implementing the carbon tax itself is that South Africa then collects the revenues and gets to decide how they're distributed and that will really minimize some of the some of the welfare losses so just to summarize um and I haven't shown you enough evidence to prove all of these points you'll have to read the paper to take my word for it but um but we find yes it's true we need to be honest right there is a lot of opportunity for green growth and green jobs no denying it but overall carbon taxes are likely to reduce national welfare and employment in South Africa and so South Africa is likely to be its economy is likely to be about 1.2 smaller by 2025 and 0.6 percent fewer jobs as a result of the context as a result of trying to meet those emissions targets without the electricity sector um pulling its fair share but these effects are fairly small in terms of economic growth rates right less than 0.1 percent per year in in the annual economic growth rate the welfare and employment losses are much larger if South Africa's trading partners decide to penalize South Africa for its inaction right and so there's a real incentive for South Africa to be a first mover um on this particular uh on on carbon taxes we find and this is fairly controversial South African is probably unlikely ever to see the light of day but we find that a border tax adjustment is actually a very significant instrument for um eliminating some of those competitiveness concerns that Rob was talking about while still not really uh changing South Africa's ability while still being able to meet South Africa's emissions reduction targets right which is the key and so for us this is this is a politically expedient instrument and it's also one which which makes for us a certain amount of economic sense and so we think it's a win-win but like I said it's uh it's a tough sell in the global scene and it's also a fairly difficult instrument to implement and so we recognize that and part of the work that Rob was presenting was to show that it could potentially be done um and that was the very detailed analysis that was in the first presentation and then finally of course the mode of revenue recycling is fundamental for determining the welfare implications um who are the winners and who are the losers for us this is actually some way of saying that the real are actually instruments out there that Salafiq can use to try and smooth the impacts across different household groups and to try and respond to some of those different concerns that Rob was talking about in his first presentation. Thanks very much.


The joy of the Lord is our strength and He is our hope, our only hope is in Jesus and Jesus alone. We're so glad you're joining us on Hope Today. I am here with Amy and Amy. Tell us about what we're going to be diving into and discussing today. Speaking about joy, you know, happiness. Everyone wants it, but not everyone has it or knows how to get it. According to a recent Harris poll, only three, one in three Americans, describes themselves as happy. One in three. That's terrible. Researchers have dubbed this the most stressed of all generations, despite its economic prosperity, technological advances. And our special guest today, Anthony DiStefano, addresses this problem head on in this freshly rewritten book by Striving to Bring the Joy of Heaven, down to earth right now. And Sidney, I just want to prepare you for his no nonsense, get to the point, get to the guts, take the bull by the horns, kind of approach to life. I personally love it. Well, I know this is like right up your valley. You love talking about these certain things. And I think it's so important that we have sometimes these tough conversations, these real conversations, so that we know we can go on the right path. And you know, I hear like there's so many people that are stressed out. They're overwhelmed. There's all these things. And in America, you would think in this place of so many, the land of opportunity, people are trying to live the American dream. It is really sad that people are just like going down this path and there's a lot of anxiety, depression. And so if this is you, you're not alone. We're not like saying like, Oh, this is bad, but we want to help you so that you can live an abundant life because I love that Jesus said he came to give us life and life more abundantly. So this is a season. This is a time that we have to kind of throw out the junk in our mind. We have to renew our mindsets so that we can walk fully in him and that we can experience that joy, that peace, because that's what I wanted my life to. We all want that. I mean, no, that really, and so many things can, can kind of steal that joy and that peace from your life.  But it was, it's such a great time to stop, like stop the train. I want to rethink some things. I want to reevaluate some things and some mentors in my life said, Amy, you have to do five things every day that bring you joy. So what are your five things? Oh, that's easy. First of all, I get up in the morning and I go outside and I feed the fish, the deer, the dog, the birds. And I love it. If you like to be outside, go outside. I like to walk every day. I like to listen to audio books every day.  And I love to eat dinner with my family as much as I can. Yesterday we did a big lunch together and it's great. So sometimes people just go through life brainlessly, mindlessly, and they're missing out on how the little things are really the big things. So what I just hear you're saying is like you're seizing the moment. You're taking every moment, we're bit by bit. You're like, okay, I'm being intentional about that. I think that is so important. So I love that. That's something.   Stop the host. All right, Amy, it's just me and you today. Here we go. So what's the first question is what type of insect did John the Baptist eat in the desert? Locusts and honey. So that's from Matthew three versus four and mark one through six and quick like quick like insight things. So our director of marketing development, Crystal, she actually like at a conference like try to locusts. They had they were having locusts and she tried them with locust powder. No, like a real locust and honey. Yeah. Okay, I don't know what I think about that. I would love to know your thoughts, emails, your thoughts. Would you try a locust? Okay, according to the be attitudes, who will be filled the happy? Yeah, bless the bless, the happy, the happy, the happy, the happy, the hunger and thirst for righteousness shall be filled. Yikes. We knew that. All right. Well, we're one for a day late, the dollar short. All right. Here's our final question in the in the new Jerusalem described in Revelation. What are the 12 gates made from? Oh my gosh. Gems. Gems, gemstones.  Yes. Okay, we got it. Pearl. That's Revelation 21. That's a lot of pressure. Just two girls. I know three questions, but we did it. We did. That was a little tough. Well, now moving on to one of the greatest joys in life. You know, one of the common goals that most people hope to attain throughout their lifetimes is to achieve true happiness. Everyone may want it, but not everyone has it or knows how to get it. Our next guest believes there's one key ingredient that most people leave out when it comes to finding authentic happiness. Anthony DiStefano is the author of the book 30 Days To Your New Life, a guide to transforming yourself from head to soul. Anthony, it is so great to have you with us on Hope Today. It's great to be here with you. Thank you for having me. What a treat. Thank you. And just, we love a strong New York accent. So just go for it. Just go all the way with it. Are you sure about that? Are you sure you want a strong New York Italian accent? I don't know. That might scare off the viewers. It brings us great happiness. And speaking of happiness, you've given us a plan. You've written out a book. I personally love the approach that you take to this book. I felt like I was sitting with like a Navy SEAL Catholic Christian kind of buddy. Why did you take that approach in writing this book? Well, first of all, it's me. I'm Italian. I grew up in Brooklyn, New York. I grew up with a lot of Italian, Irish, Jewish, Puerto Rican people, loud and funny and sort of in your face in a nice loving way. So I have it in me to be a little bit of a drill sergeant. But I also think that that's exactly the right tone you need for a book like this. Look, if you really want people to get off their butts and do things right for a change and stop the nonsense, then you've got to be pretty sure of yourself. The Bible says, if the trumpet sounds an uncertain call, who will arise for battle? And the answer is nobody. So you have to be certain. I think as long as you show people that your tough love is coming from a place of love and service and not from a point of sadism, then I think that that's a key to effectiveness and people will embrace that because they want certitude. What do you mean by transforming yourself from head to soul versus from head to toe? Well, of course, there's a double meaning there between soul and soul of your foot and soul inside yourself. You know, there's so much suffering in the world, there's so much unhappiness. And at this time, there's so much confusion too. And I've always been a big advocate of the personal development industry. I'm for anybody who can help alleviate the suffering out there. I've taken a lot of self-help programs myself over the years. And I can tell you that while they work for a while, usually they break down, they're temporary. When life really hits you with a two by four. And unfortunately, we know that life always does at some point hit you with a two by four. That's when those self-help programs fail. And the reason is quite simply because they concentrate too much on self-help and not enough on God's help. That's the big mistake the personal development industry makes.  And yet they spin out of control with drugs sometimes and commit suicide. And so all the success in the world doesn't necessarily give you happiness. And interestingly, that also works in the opposite direction too. Sometimes people who are very, very spiritual, they think that if they have a big problem, all they have to do is say one little prayer and God is going to magically take away those problems. Well, now we know God has the power to do that, but he doesn't often do that. There's that truth. There's a lot of truth that I had old adage. God helps those who help themselves. So what I've tried to do in this book is take the best of both these worlds, the best of the personal development principles. And at the same time, combine that and balance and corrected that with Orthodox Christian principles, biblical principles. And my hope is that the results people get won't just be temporary, but will be long lasting and even permanent. So you take through 30 days and it's a really meaty, hearty chapter that's challenging and encouraging.  And then you say, if you will do this for 30 days, your life will change. So why 30 days? Why this approach? Because I wanted to harness one of the main principles that this talks about, namely the power of momentum. Look, if you're overwhelmed by problems, you don't have to binge trying to solve them all at once. Look, it didn't take one day to amass all your problems. It's not going to take you one day to solve all your problems. What happens is people look at all the problems they have in all the different areas and they're paralyzed, paralyzed with fear.  And that's when they finally start taking action. But that's a terrible way to live, to live in a pressure cooker like that. There's a better way and that's to utilize the power of momentum, to take small actions, but to take them consistently in every area, your finances, your family, your health, your relationships and your relationship with God too. Take small actions, do them consistently over a period of days and weeks and months. Now when you do that, that's when you start to accelerate. That's when you start to get motivated and that's when you start to really change things. And you know, this is a very solidly biblical Christian principle because remember this, when God chose to save the world, how did he do it? He started small. He became a little baby in a small humble manger. Now if God thought it was important to start small, shouldn't we adopt the same strategy as God? And my thinking was if we do these one chapter per day, one task per day items that by the end of those four weeks, by the end of that 30 days, people will be on fire and ready and raring to go. Did these principles come from like your personal story or your personal journey where maybe life hit you with a two by four in the head and it just knocked you out and did you apply these and work these in your own life to see great results? It would take a lot of programs to talk about all of that stuff. And yes, the truth is I think, you know, one of the best things about the best thing about being a writer isn't seeing your name in print. It's that everything that happens in your life can be used as fodder to put in your writing to help other people. You know, and I think knowing that I was going, God knowing that that I was going to be a writer made sure he put me through all these different experiences in my in my life. I've had lots of success. I've had lots of failures. I've had wonderful relationships. I've had failed relationships, successful businesses, failed businesses. I've had the whole gambit.  Lots of people in my family. So I've had to work through the ups and downs, roller coaster of emotions in my life. So I've always been an advocate of personal development, as I said before, and I've been a committed Christian since my 20s. So yes, I've used all these experiences in my own life, all the research I've done for all my books. I've written 25 books and all the personal development tools that I've become aware of. And I've tried to put them into one, one book that I wish someone could have given me when I was, you know, 15 or 16 or 20 or 30, so that I could have been able to reference this and maybe not learn so much through the School of Hard Knocks, but have it right there and ceisely in front of me. You know, Anthony, I know a lot of people can identify with that. Like sometimes we really don't want to go through those hard lessons, deal with those failures, but you know, that's something we all deal with. It's inevitable in our lives. And so can you just share with us and just go a little deeper into what, how did you find or discover happiness or joy in the midst of those hard times? What are some of the lessons that you've learned that you've been able to share in your books? I'll give you one key lesson and it goes to the heart of Christianity. And you can learn it just by looking at a cross. That is the greatest symbol of love in the world, not, not the wedding ring and not the heart, but the cross because, because that's the symbol of love and self-sacrifice. And what happened with the crucifixion, what we have to understand is that was the worst evil that ever took place in, in, in the history of, of humanity. The worst evil was not a homicide or even deicide or even genocide. The worst evil was deicide, the killing of God. Nothing could be worse than that. That's the worst thing that ever happened. And yet what happened three days later, the resurrection? Now, we don't just believe that the resurrection was one person rising from the dead. We believe that that was Jesus Christ reconciling us from God to man. We believe that he was opening the gates of heaven so that everyone can go to heaven who has faith. It's something that gives meaning to all our lives. See, what happened was that God was able to take the very worst thing in the world and somehow take, turn it into the very best thing in the world. That's an amazing thing that God did. And what, what we committed Christians have to have faith about is that if God could do that, then he could certainly take all the pains and all the suffering and all the miseries that, that we endure in this life. And he could somehow, some way, pull good out of that. So I think just looking and meditating on the cross and on the truth of the passion and the resurrection, I think that's done more for me in terms of making sense of the problems in my own life than any other kind of reading or personal development work. All right. In your book, you mentioned Pinocchio, Godfather, C.S. Lewis, and many more. Let's pretend like you're our life coach right now. We're sitting down and we just got an unexpected bill due. The doctor just said something. We just had a huge relationship failure. We need some, some of your tough love, like you say in this book. Can you, can you give, talk us out of it? I think that when you're speaking about those kinds of problems, like you come out of a doctor's office and you've got a tumor or something like that, I don't think tough love is this. I don't think that's where I would give you tough love. I would encourage you in those kinds of situations and other kinds of situations where you're, you can't get off your butt and you need to get to the gym. You need to straighten out some of the messes in your life. Then I'd be a little tougher, but you're mixing some very serious things in there. In the case of something very, very serious, break up a medical issue, someone you love is suffering. I think I could only tell you this.  What is needed is trust. Fear is useless, Christ said. What is needed is trust. In those moments, the only thing that works is radical abandonment to the will of God, just like Jesus had. Jesus, I trust in you. That's what you have to say. Even if you have to say it and think it a thousand times a day, that's the only thing that could really help in those kinds of situations. In other kinds of situations, the kinds that you mentioned at the beginning, I say that you have to start cleaning up the messes in your life. Here's where the tough love comes in. God is a God of order. From the very beginning of the Bible to the very end, we see Him separating light from darkness, water from the land, and we have to imitate Christ. Cleanliness is next to godliness. When you get up in the morning, you've got to make your bed. You've got to dress neatly, not fancy, but neatly. You've got to clean up your desk area. You've got to clean up your computer screen. You've got to do those basic things to clean up the clutter. Then all the other things in your life will start to be uncluttered and you'll be able to deal with those problems more effectively. One last thing, if I have one last second, you've got to start putting God first in your life. I mean that literally. When you get up in the morning, don't let your first thought be devoted to your social media posts and how many likes your Instagram posts got, or your stressful meeting that you have to come up with, or the bills that you have to pay. Let your first thought be devoted to God. As you're coming out of dreamland, say thank you God for giving me another day. If you have time, save the off father. It takes 22 seconds to do that. You're plugging into the power source of the universe. Believe me, if you put God first, God is going to start putting you first. Thank you, Anthony. I am taking that two minute clip and sending it to my three children.  That right there would change your life. So in our last few minutes, will you define what true authentic happiness is? True happiness is a state according to the great philosophers of the world and the great theologians. It's a state of supreme contentment irrespective of the highs and lows, irrespective of the pleasures you have. Pleasure can contribute to it, but it's not the definition of happiness. You have to be able to have this contentment irregardless of the ups and downs and the roller coaster in life. It's what the Bible said when it said you will have a peace and a happiness that transcends all understanding, and that only comes through one way by being in union with God. That's the only way it comes. Fulton Sheen said that if the sun could speak, it would say it was happy when it was shining. If a pencil could speak, it would say it was happy when it was writing. Well, the reason why that would be true is because those are the purposes for which those things were created. Well, human beings were created to be in union with God. That's our purpose. So whether it's this life or the next life, the whole name of the game is union with God. If you're in union with God, if you're trying to be in union with His will, then you're going to have that supreme state of contentment and that peace and joy that transcends understanding no matter what happens with this crazy schizophrenic roller coaster life that we all have to go through. Thank you so much, Anthony. To know God is to know life and to know true happiness. Thank you so much. Where can we get your book? Everywhere. It's blessed with great distribution system. Amazon, Barnes & Noble, all your local Christian stores, pretty much everywhere books are sold as the proverbial saying goes. Thank you for your New Yorker, Italian great wisdom today. We appreciate you, Anthony. Thank you for having me. When we return in 60 seconds, we're going to look at a scripture that speaks about the hand of God and how we need to fully depend on Him when it comes to our daily lives. We'll be right back. and practical biblical insight. Learn how God wants to expand your dreams, give you divine direction, equip you with tools to overcome fear and much more. Request your copy of this life changing book when you support Cornerstone Television. Call<PHONE_NUMBER> or give online at ctvn.org slash donate. Find air times for turning point with Dr. David Jeremiah at ctvn.org. Donate and request his book forward. Thank you for your partnership with Cornerstone TV. We are so glad that you're joining us on Hope Today and we just wrapped out a phenomenal conversation with Anthony just talking about happiness and we know when it comes to happiness, when it comes to the state of being and our spirits and our soul, it all starts with God. We cannot do this life without him. We cannot do this life without walking with him, talking with him and reading his word because that is so important. It provides a firm foundation in our life and we have today coming out of the book of Psalms, it's verse 127, chapter 127 verse 1 and is this, unless the Lord builds the house, those who build it labor in vain. So simple but so true and this is talking about our spiritual house and so today as we're just like reflecting and thinking you know Amy I'm thinking about maybe it's time for us to take an inspection of our spiritual house today. What is it built on? What is it standing upon? You know even I just what's coming to mind is I know like in recently in the news we see what is happening in Alaska with the houses like there was a glacier and the houses were falling off of this cliff and I'm just thinking about in Maui, in Maui, the fires that are going that are going I mean it's just like chaos that we're seeing but I just think in a spiritual way what are we built on? Are we built on sand? Are we built on some rocky ground because when the storms hit when the waves come things will come and corrode our house down but unless it is built on Jesus unless we make sure that our foundation he is our cornerstone everything that is built out of our lives that is centered and focused on him when those storms hit it is amazing how we are sturdy that we are steadfast in him and those things won't knock us down. They might like rattle us but it won't tear us down. Well there's we're trying to build our marriage in our own strength we're trying to raise kids in our own ability or reading natural books which we're thankful but I mean you need the help of God in your life. You need the help of the Holy Spirit. I love what the scripture says in the passion if God's grace doesn't help the builders they will labor in vain to build a house that's what we need in our we need a big wide open door for God's grace to come in God's ease God's help that is what he is the master of so today whatever you're going through whatever you're trying to do in your own ability maybe today just just just let go and say God I need your help I'm asking you know sometimes it's hard Sydney to ask for help I'm honestly I even have a hard time asking my kids for help because I just think I'll just do it real quick I'll just do it myself I'll just and then at the end of the day I'm so worn out because I did everything when I should have asked for help so maybe that's you today and you're doing everything on your own maybe you need to right now call a friend maybe right now you need to call us at<PHONE_NUMBER> and say I need help and I need God's grace in my life today is a great day to stop working toiling striving in your own ability and let God's grace and peace and true joy fill this house and this foundation you know when you were talking Amy I just kept here going God saying like being like a wrecking ball allowing him sometimes we need to go through a little demolition there's a song about that a wrecking ball I think Katy Perry right but I just think about that like in your life right now sometimes we have to be like you know what God I have these idols I have these issues I have this all these things that are going on but will you allow him to be the wrecking ball in your life will you allow him to come and tear down walls tear down thoughts tear down trauma tear down everything that is hindering you from walking and the fullness and then of your purpose in Christ it is not a pretty thing it is not easy but there's been seasons I know Amy too that God has been a wrecking ball in our lives and it's amazing what he tears down it's amazing the lies that he just shows me is like you believe this lie and that lie and you're doing it this way and that way and that is not my will and that is not my plan for you my daughter or my son so today will you allow God to be the renovator of your life will you allow you know like right now I think of HGTV it's like one of my favorite things like to watch about home renovations and those shows God wants to renovate you and you know where it starts it all starts in your mind I love what it says like we need to be renewed and transformed in our mind and that that word actually look in the Greek means renovation allow yourself to go through a renovation in this season allow God to clean up clean house dig up uproop and put new soil down so you can flourish and you can grow like never before you know God is waiting to be in relationship with you there is a wide open door you know even today as I'm talking we're getting ready for our daughter to fly in you know what I was doing as a mom and what my husband was doing as a father we were preparing the house we're washing and cleaning and getting ready and filling the fridge and planning the activities because we are so excited that our daughter is coming home the same thing with you my friend the Lord is so excited for you to come home today come home to him let Jesus be the Lord and save your of your life let him be the builder let him be the foundation with which you build your life on we'll see you tomorrow on tomorrow's hope today learn to combat the lies of diet culture and step into your divine design Christian dietitian and nutrition therapist Leslie Schilling breaks down the negative influence of diet culture and explores the truth about health well-being and how God sees us that's tomorrow on hope today cornerstone television wishes to thank all our faithful viewers whose consistent prayers and financial support have made this program possible