Saudi Arabia sees the writing on the wall. I think what they're doing is they're realizing where the hockey puck is going to and they don't want to be left behind. And what it really comes down to is them putting a lot of their funds into crypto and the gelato. There was a new report that came out today from BlockWorks. Saudi Arabia's 620 billion wealth fund has backed crypto friendly VCs. And when I talk about them seeing the writing on the wall, they are one of the hugest producers of oil in the world. Well, I mean, not the only ones out there. They're actually 12% for the global production of oil. Canada being 5.8, 5.3 in Iraq. And coincidentally, United States and Russia, 14.5, 13.1% in the top two. Not very well known, but that is the truth. But you can understand Saudi Arabia's OPEC, UAB, Iraq, and their condition that they have right now. The position that they're in is that there's not going to be oil produced forever for every single thing that we need as far as a combustible engines. There's a lot of things on the horizon. There's a lot of electrical cars, electrical vehicles coming about. So they kind of see where things are going. And this makes a lot of sense to me. So here's what's going on. Saudi Arabia has disclosed investments in nearly 40 US venture capital firms, including some in crypto, blockchain, and web through real-time investments. Now I want you to note that just because they have a 620 billion wealth fund, it didn't all go into crypto. They're smart enough to realize, and this is the same that I do, is diversification, I think, is key. The fund now lists investments in the likes of Andreessen Horowitz, go through management, Peter Tealback, Valor Ventures, and a host of other ones. Pay attention to the ones that they're associated with. Web 3 and blockchain, A16Z, Poly Chain Capital, Griffin Gaming Partners, and a host of other ones, B Capital, and so on and so forth. So again, they're not putting everything into it, but like, you know what, oil is not going to last forever. Let's spread around this massive amount of revenue that we produce over the years in oil and bring in the new era.  And of course, this is something I want to bring up because you might not hear about this too much moving forward because no one wants to be associated with Saudi Arabia, especially with what happened there. Saudi Arabia has made moves to diversify its economy beyond depending on revenue from oil exports since 2016. And that's why they're really getting into not just commerce, but into tourism and of course, investments that are outside of oil, which makes a lot of sense to me. And when I take a look at this, I was like, well, that's interesting, because on this channel, I've changed my views on what's going to be the next big thing. I personally think that gaming is going to be huge. And this is just interesting that Saudi Arabia talked about this, and then there was an email this morning from the daily upside. They said Saudi Arabia pumps $38 billion into video games, $38 billion. Saudi Arabia produced 11 million barrels of oil a day, country's public investment fund will funnel $38 billion into its e-sports subsidiary, Savvy Gaming Group. We turn the company into a studio that develops and publishes video games. How likely is it that they might, I don't know, take a look at not just the Web2 games, but maybe the Web3 games that are coming out and take over some of those developments, especially with the different companies that develop those games. The gaming market for years now, I didn't know this, has been bigger than the movie and music industries combined, which I've already known that before. Interesting. Savvy CEO Brian Ward hinted that the company may adopt the strategy currently favored by Microsoft of hoovering up existing gaming studios. Wouldn't that be interesting if it takes a look at Polygon Labs or some other different Web3 developers ago? You know what? We really like this. We're going to take this over. Where do you think the price would go from that? Anyhow, let me understand about that in the comment section. Again, gaming, I think, will be big. Here's another piece. Cardano gets on-chain gaming boost as Pima Layer 2 goes live. I didn't know what this was, but there's a new cross-chain network integrates with Cardano, which allows users to play on-chain games using aided tokens and users of other networks to play Cardano-based games. When I first read it, it says, I'm like, who cares? How many Cardano-based games are out there? Just wait. Pima Studio has released this feature for the Cardano blockchain on Monday, Pima Layer 2. Cardano users can play any blockchain-based games without needing to bridge the tokens to the network. That's huge because if you know about bridge and bridges and how they operate, they're risky. We've had a ton of hacks, so now it's saying you can play any blockchain-based game without needing to bridge the tokens. Pima also supports the migration of games built on other networks to Cardano, allowing users of those networks to play a game based on Cardano without having to move assets. Bridges carry major risks. As such, Pima has said all games in the network are non-custodial. Many funds are made in the user's wallets and don't have to be transferred to the game's wallets, many getting secure. This is awesome. The release is the latest in a series of network improvements and features for the Cardano blockchain, which may ultimately add value to tokens and blah, blah, blah. So what I want to show you is this, Pima Studios. If you go there right now, link in the description, you can play a host of different games. And this one is called, it's a goofy game, Jungle Wars, whatever. It's an NFT-based game. I don't think that games are going to really take off with just these types of games and card base and things like that. But what I found interesting was, first of all, I could play this in my browser. And the second thing is, you see this MetaMask? I'm not a fan of MetaMask. We'll give that a second. But you can just click on here. And what do you see here? Asked our Flint, Nami. Nami is a Cardano-based wallet, meaning you don't need a bridge. You can play this game to your heart's desire. Really, it's a little bit of gambling too. And you can play this for more ever. And this is actually available right now. Now, what happens as time goes on, well, I think games only get better. I'm waiting for the AAA ranked, a rated game to actually come out because these are just a little goofy. I think it'll be big. I could be wrong. That's why I'm going to have CryptoStash on the show tomorrow. And we're going to talk about all these things we just talked about and where things are going and maybe what to invest into. So, again, let me just think about that in the comment section. And then also about this MetaMask. This is interesting. This is Chris Black. You know what Chris Black, you should find. He's an interesting character. He's a advocate for immutable, unstoppable, decentralized tech, vicious adversary of everything that pretends to be isn't. And that's the truth. And he just calls out MetaMask on this. And other people have talked about this. I just haven't talked about it as much as I should. And he says, why stop using MetaMask? Swap and paying their fees because MetaMask is owned by Consensus. And Consensus is developing CBDC tech. Now, on this channel, we've talked about this numerous times. I think that CBDCs are inevitable. I'm not a big proponent. I don't really care because what's going to happen is I think people are going to get into it. It's going to lead us into a mass adoption of people understanding like how to use these digital wallets in their phone, but they're going to screw up. They're going to screw up. They're going to collapse. Not they're going to collapse, but they're not going to allow people to use their funds all the time. Absolute power corrupts absolutely. I think China and Russia as they get into it, we'll start to shut down people, just like we saw with the runs in the banks. There's going to be other problems. And that will just say, well, I know how to use digital wallet. Why don't I just use the other digital wallets, like Anami or whatever else? And they begin to Bitcoin and use a ledger nano wallet. Maybe I can just do that and get out of the system. Again, I'm not a big proponent of CBDCs. I just see where things are going to take it. But back to this right here, Chris Black says TSC has a nice little reference here. This is from Consensus, Enhanced Monetary Policy. CBDC gives central banks direct influence over the money supply, simplifying distribution of government benefits to individuals, and improving control over transactions for tax purposes. And again, this is also by Consensus. Recently, about a year ago, January 13, envisioning a future of central bank digital currencies for everyone everywhere. That's scary. But that is what Consensus and MetaMask wallet is. You're welcome to keep using it. I still have to use it. It's true, but I'll be looking for alternatives. If you've got an alternative, let me know. Put that in the comments section. And then next to last, Sweatcoin. I know people hate when I talk about Sweatcoin.  But just so you know, it's free to download, free to use, and you get sweat tokens. Oh, and guess what? In September of this year, they're coming to the U.S. So all those Sweatcoins that you actually accumulate, just for having on your phone for free, they're going to give you an actual sweat token that you can redeem for other value. But this is interesting. They're going to give you $24,000, not just as like a prize, but one lucky person, $24,000 a year for simply walking each day. They're looking for a chief walking officer who will receive a monthly paycheck. Yeah, you read that right. Chief walking officer just for walking around and having on their phone. You can get paid by that. All this person, and it's only one, is required to do is walk an average of 5,000 steps a day, send a Sweatcoin Foundation every month, and attend media interviews, which I think would be pretty cool, like just to be unlike, I don't know, Fox News or CNN or something, or whatever the kind of outlets there are, Twitter Spaces, my show. Unlike Solana, they move to an app Steppen. Users aren't required to make initial payments or buy an NFT. It's 100% free to start up. People looking at the prize should have a valid Sweatcoin account. They also require a two-stake 25 sweat and pay an opt-in fee of one sweat. It's okay. For every 3,000 steps, you get that one sweat. People based in U.S., China, Russia, Pakistan, or any particular location based on Sweat conditions are not allowed to participate. So sorry, America, that until September. And you can thank your boy, Gary Gensler, for that one. And lastly, I can't give you all the good news and just leave it like that and go, everything's gonna be great and fantastic. There's a little bit of balance. It's not too much Hopium in here, but you like to talk about the positivity, but there's an interesting article. And it talks about Bitcoin versus Gold and the largest hedge fund manager, which is Ray Dalio says. And he just pretty much, I thought it was a big Bitcoin proponent, but he's like, look, he expressed that he prefers Gold much more over Bitcoin, even though he says he holds a small amount. And he says Bitcoin has no relation to anything. Bitcoin status is a form of digital Gold is still improving. It's too volatile to be money or a store of value. Gold is stable because it's been a reliable store of value and medium of exchange for thousands of years. That's true. He has owned some Bitcoin, but it's very limited as compared to Gold. And this got me thinking and also got me thinking about there was an interview between Chuck Todd and Senator Elizabeth Warren where Chuck Todd just says, why are you so against Bitcoin? And that wasn't the right, the right question. The right question was, what is money? That's what he should have started off with. And it's the same thing for Ray here. I mean, he believes in Gold. And I got to tell you, I own Gold and Silver surprise. I don't see why you can't have all three Gold, Silver, Bitcoin. I think that's the new savings account, but it could be, no, that's, that's a pretty good one. Not financial advice. But the question then is what is money? And I'm just going to make this very simple and then we'll get out of here, which is this. I sent this to Elizabeth Warren on Twitter. And I think it makes somewhat sense. Again, you have to ask yourself when people are talking to you about what's Bitcoin and why do you need it? Because it makes no sense. I want to use a dollar. The first thing you should ask them is what's money? What's money to you? Well, if you think about what money is, the dollar, it's a store of value, right? You store your value in dollars. You sell things, you put it in dollars, buy things, use dollars. Of course, when you buy things, you're doing an exchange, a conduct exchange, there's just two values. It's a store of value, conduct exchange. Now with Bitcoin's a little bit different and Ray is right. It is volatile, but over time, over a vast amount of time, I would make the argument that it is much more of a store of value over time than the US dollar. Here's the example. 1980, you could buy a grocery full of food. 2000, probably half. In 2022, 20 bucks gets you yogurt. I don't know, especially in Puerto Rico. Now in 2011, 20 bucks of Bitcoin by groceries, about a full case. 10 years later, it could buy you a nice car. 2030, I don't know what it's going to be. It's probably going to be more. Who knows? So those are the two things that I would counter argument with Ray. And then two more things I would actually add on, this would be to Elizabeth Warren too, is first of all, it's scarce, only 21 million, which is a good hedge against inflation as the government keeps printing, which means my purchasing power goes down as it just happened right here. And the last thing is, and Elizabeth Warren talks about this, about belief. Look, since 2009, the belief in Bitcoin has only grown.  They're more for digitalization of assets, tokenization of assets. But you can see that's where things are going. I think it's a pretty bright case. But again, these are the things that we're going to come up against the radalities of the world who just like, I just don't really get it too much. That's it. So look, that's it for today. If you like today's video, give it a thumbs up, consider subscribing. Everything we talk about is time sensitive. That's it for today. Thanks for stopping by. I appreciate it. And I'll see you on the next one.


Had did of course play it left back in the 6-0 loss at Norwich in the lead cup. Terry's trying to put Billing in, he's on side now down the left-hand side. Salanke wants it square, Salanke gets it square! Paulie by Ryan Bennett to the onrushing Leaf Davis. He tried to take on Bennett down the outside, it's still going to run for Leaf Davis. If he can get there ahead of Norton, which he does, Leaf Davis just... Leaf fantastic. Little one-two. Downers, Ben Hamer, the goalkeeper, got the ball next to get his hat through it, but he went himself and we've got a lucky bounce. But he's not going to walk you about the head, he's still got plenty to do there. They nicked it back, Morgan Rodgers did well there in conjunction with Jamal Lowe, and here's Jamal Lowe, surely against his old club, he's going to try and go himself here, onto his right foot, comes across the edge of the six-yard box. Rodgers is challenging, and eventually it's back to Jamal Lowe, the space for Jack Nancini, just... I mean they could have got the ball away previous to that, but we recycled it, and it was a great pass. Was it Champions who passed it to Jamal Lowe?


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This one is called Gersnatch. Gersnatch. I'm Corbin. I'm Alexis. I'm Ashley. Be on the lookout for those Gersnatches. They'll get you. Every time. Please follow us on Instagram. One, two. From all Jews at Goddard. So juicy. And today, thanks to our Patreon. He did not suggest this. He just subbed it for us. Yes, thank you, Gersnatch. It's the one that's been most requested of Rithics. They say the one that is his best acting. Because we've been talking about, we know he's beautiful. His history. His dancing. We know he's beautiful. We haven't seen his acting. And we are watching the Deborah one this week. Yes, because of me. Because I am Deborah. I've renamed it the Deborah one. Yes. And you know what I'm talking about. Yes. But here, we go. The mover won't move. He had me at Sanjay level. 2010. Wow. Okay, geez. That's something. Because like, is that either his past or his imagination? Right. It was very intriguing to have that shot with him going in the Pamparazzi around him. Because it makes it look like he was this famous dancer who had an accident. Maybe. I don't know. But the fact that Sanjay is directing it. I will see anything he does now. Yeah. He's the director of Bajramastani and Padnava. Oh wow. So you know what would be visually beautiful. Yeah. And we saw that one just the other day with the black hat. That trailer was so fantastic. I feel like it's gonna make us cry. I feel like tears are just gonna. It's just gonna. I'm sure it won't. Except for Corbin because he has no soul. That's a fact. How would you pronounce it? Guzaric? Guzaric? I would. Yeah. Guzaric. Guzaric? Guzaric. Go ahead. One of you girlies. Yeah. Okay. Just a plot. Okay. Sure.  This looks like assisted suicide. Oh wow. I said it was gonna make us cry. That is deep. Wow. This is way at the top of the list. We have so many freaking movies to watch. I've never seen a film depicted assisted suicide. No. And what a shock. Because that's illegal here obviously assisted suicide. Yeah. Well except I think there's like one place you can do it. Oh really? Seriously. I think there's like one place where it was allowed. Is it legal in India? I don't know. We don't know that place. That's. And no spoilers. Yeah obviously we've seen this obviously. Don't tell us anything. But the runtimes. I know. A lot of runtimes. But the subject matter. The subject matter of the films coming out of India are. So interesting. Well and the timing of it because we first noticed it with pink. We were shocked to see that pink was all about what we're talking about for the past couple of years is the Me Too, the hashtag Me Too. But pink preceded the Me Too movement. Yeah. Oh yeah. And then Amir Khan's films and then this clearly. And I know I'm forgetting six or seven other things we've seen that we were just shocked. Yeah. That not just that you're doing the subject matter. That's shocking enough. But so way ahead of American cinema. Yeah. In terms of big name people doing these kinds of subject matter films. It's kind of annoying that we never heard of this. Because that's like an Oscar worthy subject matter. I know. Just for the subject it would get nominated. But what else is it's why I just the mantle keeps getting more fuel put in it. And I just I'm telling as many people as I can. To watch. To the year too. Yeah. Exactly. Always student of the year too. Because if you really want to feel the depth of the cinematic brilliance of India. We're being facetious. Oh I couldn't tell. Yeah. No. There are so many freaking incredible films.  At least from the amount it's been recommended. We hadn't gotten to it because it I mean it didn't really actually need subtitles. So then maybe that's. No. Yeah. But I didn't know because I'll look for I won't watch the trailer obviously while I'm looking for subtitles. Yes. Right. I'll just I'll kind of skim through it. And if it doesn't have it I'm like sorry because I don't want to watch it. And then you have it ruined. Disappointed. So sorry. But yeah clearly they didn't have any talking in it. But I'm at the point now with Sanjay that if I see his name I don't care. I'll watch it. I enjoy his films and his trailers enough now that if he's directing it if he's involved. Hold on. I'm going to go to his IMDb and just point out one and see if it's worth it. Ready. Hum Dill D. Chunk Surround. Hum Dill D. Chunk Surround. I think it's Chunk. Chunk. That's a movie about this guy who's trying to find. Hum Dill D. Chunk Surround. Hum Dill D. Chunk Surround. Hum Dill D. Chunk Surround. I'm a doctor looking for a serum. Do you have some chunks? Yeah. Let us know if that one's worth anything. That was a little test. Yeah. You can tell us. Bandai is in that one. Yeah. It's a reboot of Chichi Bang Bang. Okay. Oh geez. Wow.


This is Mises weekends with your host Jeff Deist Hey ladies and gentlemen welcome back once again. It is time for Mises weekends this week I'm joined by a friend Daniel McAdams someone whom I've known Gosh since the early 2000s someone with whom I worked in Dr. Paul's congressional office in Washington DC for any of you who aren't familiar with Daniel He runs the Ron Paul Institute for peace and prosperity and along with a couple of real luminaries I would list him in you know amongst the one or two top Libertarian foreign policy people we have out there working so with that Daniel good to see you welcome. Hey Jeff Thanks for having me back on Mises weekends Well, so we are talking about the financial costs of war this week And I and I notice I say war not defense Because I think this is all part and parcel of how language tends to shape our thinking about this stuff And I noticed I didn't realize this but We actually you called the Department of Defense so-called The Department of War up until after World War two it wasn't until 1949 that it that it happened in stages that we fully started using the term Department of Defense I for some reason I had it in my mind that that was earlier Yeah, and I guess that was the last time we declared war too. It's what makes sense They stopped calling it the Department of War. Yeah, well you from Mises, you know George Orwell Had that faming famous Essay about meaningless words and politics and I wonder how it would shape shape our perception if for instance if we called Mattis the Secretary of War Because these wars we don't even think of the United States as being at war the the popular Culture that we don't think of this and even as we did in Vietnam, but certainly not in World War two Which was a concerted national effort Well, it's a lot more hidden now too you have special forces that are doing the things and they you know It's very convenient for presidents to deploy special forces because it's secret You can't tell people what they're doing between that and drones It really is kept out of our of our site The only time you see them is if you turn into an NFL game and you see soldiers marching across the playing field So that's about it. I think yeah, it's very hygienic. We're separated from from the carnage I did notice a bit of Orwellian speak and Trump's state of the Union speech the other night He called on Congress to fully fund quote-unquote Our nation's defense and if you certainly remember this, that's an old trick the Democrats used to always use that because what does that mean? It's meaningless it means more, but what when is any federal program or agency or department fully funded? It's meaningless Yeah, and that's what's also meaning is this this idea that the Pentagon has been hamstrung by the so-called Sequester which even if it had been implemented like it was envisioned would have simply slowed down the rate of increase in military spending You know, this is a great canard, you know And Matt has said when he unveiled his defense strategy a couple weeks ago that we've been in a period of strategic atrophy You know, which is such a bizarre thing when you think about on the one hand the military itself talks about how uptempo It's deployments are and how engaged it is everywhere in the world But he talks about strategic atrophy as if these guys have been sitting around on their hats under the Obama administration Which this hasn't been the case although there is as I said on the Liberty report There's an atrophy when it comes to strategy Because our concept of our strategy of what we should be doing in the world That is atrophied to a large degree and there's no amount of military budget that will that will compensate for that kind of atrophy Isn't it interesting during Trump's speech that now of course the Democrats are no better on foreign policy We all know that but it's interesting how really since Reagan Militarism and support the troops all the stuff has become a Republican phenomenon Whereas to our grandparents, they would have associated the 20th century wars with Woodrow Wilson and FDR and then LBJ in Vietnam It's it's funny how that's turned around and it's become a Republican thing It's such a great bait and switch, you know the propaganda among conservatives if you're conservative you support war You support more adventure overseas. It used to be no conservatives The idea of being a conservative was you realize the government can't run your life. It can't run the lives of people here It's terrible at running the DMV. It's terrible of all these things But then all of a sudden they place their faith in this same government to go over and run the world in a place Where you don't speak the language we have no idea about the culture most of these people couldn't even find it on a map It's just so preposterous and unfortunately They fall in Fort Hook on and sacred because this idea that if you don't support the wars rather than just the troops Is that the military? Then somehow you're less American or less patriotic that really that that really is a worship of the state And it's really a not a conservative phenomenon historically Yeah, well, I'd like to get into the numbers a little bit And I think we're going to see that you can be for limited government or you can be for our current foreign policy You can't be for both So as I'm sure a lot of our listeners are familiar Right now the federal budget is about four trillion dollars You could silo that into so-called mandatory entitlement spending on Medicare Social Security Medicaid that's two trillion of it right there and Really we have about a trillion dollars in overall so-called defense spending so that's two trillion so really you're left with less than a quarter of the budget or about a quarter of the budget is You know what? Is remains for the kind of things that the federal government reports to do things? We think they shouldn't do but in the public's mind things like schools and roads and farm policy and and Welfare and all these things are actually just this this this tiny Sliver of the federal budget And the military spending will increase and you know, there's a there's a bargain this grand This grand alliance between the Republicans and Democrats if the military budget increases The Republicans will often cave on more domestic spending. It's the only way to get these things through You know Secretary Mattis the Secretary of Defense at the end of this past week was it was a green by Briar at the GOP retreat down there And he told them hey, we're gonna ask for seven percent more military spending in in for 2019 than we did in 2018 And if you remember Jeff in 2018 the president first came through with I think 680 or 690 billion dollar request Which was bumped up. I think 50 billion in Congress said that's ridiculous We need to bump it up 50 billion dollars more So they ended up with a hundred billion dollars more than they had initially discussed And when you talk about this compared to the rest of the world Just that 150 billion dollar bump-up that Congress gave the president is the entire military budget of Russia So it's just a little that's considered a little bump-up for us Yeah, isn't it interesting how the magic word support the troops Becomes an excuse for just unhinge spending of money that we're not we federal government is not bringing in taxes And I will throw this out there Daniel isn't aside these congressional trips like the one of the Greenbrier Yeah, they're not funded by taxpayers But if you're giving money to one of the either the republics of the democrats to their parties, you're an absolute chump Because this the Greenbrier I've been there. It's I think like a $500 a night place They can go stay at the days in and Anacostia if they want to talk as far as unlikely, but you know the Ostensibly from what I'm reading today that the 2018 Defense budget the military budget is 824 billion But I know you've argued and talked that we talked about this offline that there's a lot of hidden Defense spending in places like the State Department budget. So talk about that a little bit Certainly in state. You've got Homeland Security You've got a counterintelligence component of the FBI. You've got the Department of Energy that does our nuclear program You have the interest on the the the war debt, which is a huge chunk of money as well You've got veterans expenses. Those are related to the cost of our military empire So when you add it up, it's definitely well over a trillion and many many others have You know marked it at well over a trillion dollars a year and rising And the question is what do we get for it? Do we get more security? No, we're told we're even less secure than ever after 16 years 17 years Fighting this war on terror. We're even more vulnerable Than ever. So what where does this money go? So is the the appropriation for v. A Veterans affairs is that separate from the dod approach? Is that how is elsewhere in the federal budget? Yeah, that's a separate appropriations Theoretically, I know this is going to you're going to have a hard time remembering how long ago this was Jeff But we actually used to do appropriations on the hill where you'd go through Each one of these departments and and appropriate the funds Of course, that's now all gone and everything is is handled from the center from the from the speaker's Office and through crs. Etc. Etc. But yeah, they we used to go through line item These different requests each year and veterans was was separate Well, just think of how many 20 and 30 somethings we now have Who have mental or physical injuries from iraq and afghanistan? That will require Medical care for the rest of their lives. They might live to being in their 90s And of course with battlefield medicine now a lot of people survive that might not have survived in earlier wars It's I mean has anyone ever done a study of what our future va costs might look like Well, sadly the the fact is to be quite blunt The only mitigating factor is that so many of these vets are killing themselves to a quite young You know ironically and horrifically there is a big savings there because it's an epidemic of these soldiers because the other thing is You know, jeff when these guys go in with ptsd Depression alcohol addiction whatever problem. They're not given these sort of long expensive Therapies that they may need they're given a cocktail of psychoactive drugs that we have no We see over and over again produce terrible results in people All of these mass shootings you see these kids are on these drugs These guys are given a cocktail of drugs until go home take these drugs and you'll be fine And you know, it's it really is not the way to treat these guys and gals Well another angle to all this is that these wars are funded using borrowed money In effect treasury debt Going through the budget Currently the the interest on the national debt costs congress in terms of its budget appropriations about $315 billion a year But we're in a very very low interest rate environment. So the fed By by targeting and keeping the the fed funds rate very low makes it much easier for congress to service the debt but I'm sure a lot of people know that Janet Yellen and and now mr. Powell are talking about right raising interest rates I read an interesting article national review how if we ever went back to the 10 interest rates of the Early Reagan and late carter era Then with a 10 interest rate that 300 billion dollar a year interest payment would become 2.5 trillion dollars So in other words, it would be the single largest Item in the federal budget now even with an interest rate far less than that I don't think the fed will are ever going to let us get back to that But but assuming just sort of a normal range of 5 to 8 interest I just wonder if all of a sudden congress had to grapple with this gigantic Interest payment every year and people could actually see oh my gosh We're spending as much on that as entitlements I wonder if if that might be a way to wake people up To to how much we're spending on these wars Well, jeff. I mean, uh, I don't know if this happened to you It probably didn't because you're smarter than me But it reminds me when I was very young in my early 20s and I got my first credit card And had a great old time and then all of a sudden I got this bill It shocked the heck out of me, you know, and I think that might be the case If I mean these things are hidden The middle class they declined the middle class in earning power Etc etc is all a part of this hidden budget this hidden spending and if it ever becomes apparent I think they might start asking questions But who in the mainstream media is even going to bother asking right now or bringing it to their attention Well, we are hearing a lot about how republicans don't care about deficits anymore And of course they never really did and and democrats certainly never did It looks like the 2018 deficit will be about 666 billion dollars So we're back into that range of half a trillion per year I think it's going to get a lot worse than that The cbo congressional budget office certainly predicts that it's going to get a lot worse than that under current budget and revenue scenarios But let's let's just for the sake of argument assume that it holds at about half a billion or a little more per year That's still a trillion dollars of new debt every two years five trillion every decade You know, it's clearly unsustainable so The question becomes then who Who will fund our wars that right right now the majority of treasury debt is still owned by Uh, the security trust fund and americans and individuals Um and banks holding treasury debt. I mean, what's the What's the end game scenario here this dovetail between unbridled military spending and deficits How does it play out? And how will it play out in the future as you as you pointed out at the beginning You know, we have to fully fund and not only that we're in the middle of an upgrade of our nuclear nuclear weapons capabilities and that means revamping basically retooling los alamos Livermore all of the nuclear weapons labs Bringing them out of mothballs from the cold war rebuilding them with modern technology If anyone thinks this is only going to cost a trillion, you know, you've got another thing coming So you've got some big bills coming down the pipe if he continues Only on the military side Plus he said in a state of the union that he wants a trillion and a half dollars to rebuild our infrastructure So there's some big spending coming down the road If he if he if he gets what he wants or if he pursues what he claims he wants to pursue What what is our nuclear capability?  What is our nuclear capability look like do we have lots and lots of active Nuclear wet long range nuclear weapons plenty enough to to to blow up the capitals of our so-called enemies Yeah, we have about 7 000 nuclear weapons right now and they're and you know, they're they're They're pretty powerful things But you know the new nuclear posture review is expected to be released sometime this month And from what others have written about who've seen part of it part of the plan is to start making so-called usable mini nukes and Things that can be used on the battlefield Deployed into western europe as a deterrent to the russians It's a strange concept because it suggests the idea of first strike as a policy Rather than mutual assured destruction and people think mini nukes. Oh, that sounds cute You know what we can use them on the battlefield Well, a relatively low yield nuke these days is around the strength of the bombs that were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki So these are some still some pretty destructive bombs But it's the new attitude toward nuclear weapons that appears to be coming down Unfortunately, this is what happens when you when you throw everything in the hands of the generals But this idea that we can use nukes and we might threaten to use nukes And also changing the previous guarantees to non nuclear countries that we will never attack you with nuclear weapons That is also expected to be done away with so there's a big incentive for worldwide proliferation If that indeed takes place Who do you think was behind sticking that crazy Language in the state of union speech about rebuilding our nuclear capabilities at trump I don't you know trump's not coming up with this stuff on his own Well, you know to be fair to trump. This is an obama policy. Obama is the one who announced Toward the end of his second term This trillion dollar plan to revamp the nuclear You know that our nuclear weapons capability But then again that just lets you know that really no matter who you vote for no matter who comes into power The same would have happened. I'm sure if hillary were president She would have probably doubled down on it But these policies remain the same because the military industrial complex The think tanks that they fund in the beltway the lobbyists that they fund These things go on and on and on regardless of who's elected. They don't even pay attention to who's elected You know daniel was interesting during the state of the union speech when trump alluded briefly to china and russia He didn't call them enemies or adversaries. I think he used the term rivals It was that was that remark telling to you in any way? I think it was I think it was it was a bright spot in a way And I think it was a soft peddling of secretary mattis's new defense strategy Where he went into great detail about how russia and china are our focus our main threats Soft peddling that that was also the only time he used the word russia and china in the speech And as a matter of fact, that's one of the things that the mainstream media criticized most about his speech Where is the russia bashing? You know, where's the china bashing? Yeah, what's going on here? so and that was really one of the The better parts of the speech that he didn't obsess about this about about russia and china gives us a little ray of hope I think and he didn't seem to go on and on about iran either I didn't hear any sort of new saber rattling Yeah, he didn't you know, he He's he's sort of a he's sort of you know A victim of his own policy.  Who's going to do that? Nobody's going to do that They're trying to cajole and worse the europeans into following But the europeans are also reaping are already reaping trade benefits out of the loosening of of sanctions against iran I think it's going to be difficult for the us to put to put this genie back in the bottle Well, give us your take on the situation in north korea right now vis-a-vis not only south korea, but but trump and his rhetoric Well, this is another example. I think of the of the real strategic weakness the real What was the word we use that the the strategic atrophy of the united states and that the u.s Is no longer relevant which for us libertarians is a good thing is no longer as relevant to these to these Disputes, uh, whether it's north korea and south korea whether it's israel and palestine whether it's in syria The us because it comes to the table pounding its fists on the table is simply ignored You know all of the saber rattling all of the bloody nose strikes that we threatened against north korea And here you have the north and south get together a very productive bilateral meeting the us wasn't invited They decided to send uh athletes to compete in the winter olympics in south korea They've talked openly about reunification For the first time in ages So the us is because it is so bellicose in its approach to the world Is becoming less and less relevant to the rest of the world And I think this is particularly important when you think about jeff when you think about The kinds of things that the chinese and east asia are doing with the rebuilding of the silk road with trade routes These are these are places for commerce. These are places for international trade That are taking to place and the us is just not invited to participate I think that at the end is going to come back in haunt us and might really be the final decline of of of the us dollar Well, this is something dr. Paul Used to to say time and time again was it the neoconservative foreign policy is what's truly isolationist In the sense that it puts us Not as cooperative friends With with the rest of the world are trading partners, but but instead Positions us as boss of the world and I noticed Just the other day the washington post our friend jeff bezos announced that he's hiring max boot For some new ideological diversity at the washington post and and against my better judgment I looked at the little self-description that boot has on his twitter or something And it was you know, it was all about the united you know, I believe the united states has a role to play. I mean You know, isn't it interesting that that that that non interventionists libertarians like us Are constantly attacked even more than libertarian circles. I hate to say it sometimes that that libertarians are you know They're always ready to compromise on foreign policy and war and you know, but but everything else is you know Domestic social stuff is more important. Um, isn't it interesting to you that Uh, how this flipped how what would have been seen so much as common sense You know 150 years ago We're now seen as the outliers and I I don't like to admit that but I think it's true I think it is true and I think it is because of the neocons because uh, you know, uh, every uh, when you all have a hammer Everything's a nail and this is therefore policy max boot is writing on the glories of this new book that he came out You know an exercise in naval gazing how we could have won the vietnam war You know, if you don't need killed a few billion more or something, you know, this is the kind of person here So you have this this great diversity And and and you're right to call it that this suit of diversity of a right-wing neocon amongst a bunch of left-wing neocons There are no one on interventionists Even semi non interventionists represented on the editorial pages of of the of the post or any other major american newspaper And you know, there's a lot of criticism that you know Dr. Paul myself and a lot of others tend to go on rt But literally those are the only venues open to criticize us foreign policy to criticize the neocons It just it just simply no other options to do that that says a lot about our so-called diverse media And it's of course state-run tv in the form of public broadcasting is a okay Um, I want to wrap this conversation up with a question Not so much about the numbers but about the size and scope of the u.s. Military presence Relative to the rest of the world. I know you're you're much more familiar With how many bases we have and how many countries around the world relative to everybody else So so talk about this this thing we always hear that the united states spends more on defense than the next five or ten countries combined And that is a fact, you know, and it's I would say Not to to pick on semantics, but more on military expensive than defense We should spend everything we need to on defense But yeah, jeff. It's we've got you know, estimated thousand bases in 80 countries You can google any map of u.s bases. They're literally everywhere. They're all through africa The entire rest of the world combined has about 70 bases outside of of national borders So, you know, we're number one in that and the question is First of all, this costs about 200 billion dollars a year to maintain these bases to maintain the personnel Overseas and the question is what is it for? Is it they say it's project power to keep open sea lanes to keep open trade lanes this whole idea I don't need to tell the you at the mesas institute this whole idea that our military's job Is to is to promote trade to promote the sale of of us goods and us weapons overseas Really is a socialist, you know Proposperous preposterous socialist notion But there you there you have it. That's what we've got Yeah, it really is unfortunate People who aren't following daniel they can find him as the sign behind him says at ronpaulinstitute.org There's some other great writers there like adam dick and chris rascini Daniel, what is your twitter handle at daniel mcadams? Yes, the daniel mcadams I really encourage you to to keep up with rpi to get your alternative foreign policy news from rpi And to follow daniel on twitter because he he's an absolutely Unbelievable resource and and what's so sad about this is that there are just endless amounts of money For places like the brookings institute and a e i in washington dc To to promote the same old same old foreign policy and and You know, we'd love to see organizations like rpi grow Because if there's if there's one thing that's going to save us and our grandkids It's getting out of this war Mindset the united states with that daniel. Thanks so much for your time ladies and gentlemen. Have a great weekend Subscribe to mises weekends via itunes you stitcher and soundcloud or listen on mises.org and youtube You


It's been absolutely fantastic. It's been a wonderful, wonderful evening and it's been a great honour to express my welshness and to have won this award especially from the Welsh Government. It's been a real honour and very privileged. A highlight has been just talking to people and seeing how everybody is and being with my cousin as well who I haven't seen for quite a while and it's a lovely thing to be with him and part of our Welsh family. ac mae'n fwy gweithio'r ffordd. Mae'n fwy gweithio'n gadewch, mae'n gweithio'n fwy gweithio'r ffordd y gwaith ac mae'n gweithio'n gweithio'n gweithio yn ôl.


Let's get started. Let's just zoom through these risk warnings. So certainly an interesting week last week and probably going to be another one this week. Not sure how many of the participants here had trades in Swiss francs, certainly volatile, not in any sense of the word a typical occurrence in currency markets. I've never seen a 40% move in a currency like that. That was absolutely unprecedented. We may as well start by just having a quick look at the... I think we all probably know the fundamental situation behind it, namely that peg with the euro and obviously the Swiss National Bank keeping that peg on to try and artificially devalue their currency. This is the range we currently find ourselves in after this absolute crash down from that 120 peg. It's difficult to properly look at a daily chart now, but if we do scroll back, this has made it a bit difficult to see. Essentially what had happened is that we... This is very difficult. As you can see, we did actually have a range in the euro Swiss with a kind of higher floor, which was close to sort of 122. That's sort of a 121.80 maybe. We sort of fell through that. From the height of the web where the prices have been trading, move from about this sort of range. You can see prices sort of dip below here. Then the kind of crisis period sort of entered. It wasn't really October, but I would say sort of November. You can see prices really started hugging that peg. There was nothing even close to getting up to that form of 121.80 to 122 type cyber area that had been consistent trade for four odd years, buying in around the 120 and pushing prices higher again. You can see something kind of changed. Most people's understanding is that that was the ECB, the European Central Bank, just getting closer and closer to quantitative easing. That European Court of Justice ruling was the final thing that triggered the SMB to change their minds about the peg. They felt they wouldn't be able to sustain it were there a big barrage of euros selling if there was a QE program and they lifted the peg and preempted it. This is hard to see here, but what we're looking at here is akin to a triangle pattern in a way where you have a tall initial resistance, but every time you come off the floor you just don't quite make it back up to where you formerly were. When you have that kind of triangle pattern, this is essentially the floor, and it just wasn't the power to get back up each time. The dynamics behind this triangle pattern is that eventually, typically, prices break down below that floor because you can just see the buyers are trying to hold on, but the sellers and sellers are getting more and more aggressive until eventually it goes down. Tricky trade now, I've got this range that we're working on at the moment, and it'd be a brave sell probably to be buying euros against the Swiss franc prior to the European Central Bank meeting this week. That obviously is the big event risk that we have this week, event risk, event potential. The big one to be looking at obviously is the euro, and we dropped as low as 115 which is multi-year lows as we look back, really a monthly chart's needed. We can see we had this kind of rising trend line that I'd mentioned the prior week, that gave way, and so really what we're looking at is this floor from 2005 which we have moved below, but if we can hold the month above there, there is some chance of the euro recovering. But again, it's a similar looking pattern on a longer time scale where there's no trend line that particularly works here, but it's that general theme of here's a floor that's been giving way, here's a declining resistance where each time we've got down there, it's just not quite been able to do as much. So if this does give way, to me this is pretty big, and we could even be seeing something along the lines of this is crude, objective, where finding an objective from a pattern, but it could be something along the lines of this. So obviously the first big barrier is parity which people were calling for in the European debt crisis, but never happened because Mario Draghi stepped in there and saved the currency saying he'd do all that it takes. Now he's doing all that it takes to devalue the currencies. The things have changed. The parity looks increasingly likely, but should this pattern play out, we could be looking right back down to these values seen in 2002 and even down below that. So that's just a little indication of the gravity of what's going on here. So in terms of this meeting, there are high expectations going into this. That can be seen by A Euro 115, but also B Germany 30 at record all-time highs has hit 10,300 as of last week as of Friday with this huge breakout here, break of this triangle pattern. I have similar objectives that I've set up here, better seen on the daily chart where this was the kind of triangle. So I've discounted this spike at the bottom, used this low here. That connects nicely with these two lows. Used the height of the pattern projected from the breakout area. That would 100%, so that whole height there from this breakout would put us at 10,800. So this breakout's already started to happen. We're already at new all-time highs. Now of course we could see some pullbacks before getting there, but it seems like the race is on now. So even if we get a bit of a disappointment at the meeting on Thursday, maybe no QE is announced or the sort of German resistance means that the program's not as big as some would hope. We could get a bit of a pullback in the Germany 30, but the race is on now, especially if they do announce just something, then that would indicate that probably even if the Eurozone does sort of keep declining and we dip further into deflation, then they'd have the scope to expand the program and so that would be what's needed to get us up to that kind of objective. Equally a failure of that objective. We do roll over and break below these kinds of lows. That's a big bearish sign. If you have a patent that tells me it's objective, roll over. That's a good indication that we could be the beginning of a much larger decline in stock markets. So interesting either way. The other obviously, Euro-wise, the other thing that we've got going on at the weekend is the Greek elections. It's politics and all we can really go on is the polls which imply that Cereza, the anti-austerity party is topping them, Samaras' party, the Prime Minister is sort of catching up a bit and so there could be some element of the sort of Scottish referendum effect where people vote one way in the polls, but then when it actually comes down to it do something a bit more conservative. It remains to be seen but it's tough times for most, I say, but a lot of Greeks with these kind of austerity measures and they probably want a change. So good chance for Cereza we voted in, but what we have to keep in mind is they have said they want to keep the Euro so maybe the risk doesn't even so much come from them per se. Today it's more almost the other European nations and how they react to any change in policy domestically that Cereza introduced. Most likely the other European nations will do what they can to keep Greece inside the Eurozone despite all the tough rhetoric from the likes of Germany. They won't want the kind of associated political instability but it could set the precedent for other nations. I think, well, if Greece is just bailing out of its sort of IMF mandated ideas to kind of clean up then maybe we'll do the same. So particularly looking at Spain and Italy. Spain's done a lot more than Italy but a lot of people inside those countries are hurting from those measures and so they could easily follow suit from Greece and decide to vote in someone a bit more friendly to their short term means. So technically we've got this big breakout. We're at all-time highs so it's difficult to find resistance other than sort of objectives from the Fibonacci and the likes. Support's a bit easier. We've got support immediately from this former all-time high. That'll be worth looking at. Basically there's 10-100, 10-09-5 level below there. This next peak which is kind of the big area that kind of broke through with these kind of looking candlesticks and this big reversal that we sort of plunged down after that SMB, the bar call and then managed to pull higher and then rallied on Friday. So that would be another area should we get through the 10-100. But given this breakout and the general scope of things I wouldn't expect prices to get down to this kind of low that we saw 300 points down on Thursday but that should we do that. That again would be another area of support coinciding with this trend line again. The UK managed to rally nearly to the same extent as in Germany but definitely seen a bit of a turnaround. Got a bit of kind of on the daily chart we've got a bit of RSI, British Divergence, formed a new low but a big spike reversal on the daily candlestick coincided with a higher low formed on the RSI, pushed through this 50 level indicating in a kind of bullish trend. So it's looking a bit more, it's still very choppy markets if we look on this kind of wider scale. Still kind of sideways here and there's still the potential for this large decline that we saw in December to play out but we're still kind of in sideways mode and we could be looking at another run at the highs before this plays in again. For me 6, 7, 7, 5 is definitely going to be a big one. If we get through that it's going to imply a big shift in sentiment from what caused that to then pushing through that high again which we're already starting to see because that's a strong couple of reversals of this level. So you don't typically want to fight against kind of long wicks like that, two of them together. It implies that there's a lot of buyers coming in around this six or 300 to 400 type area and so 6, 7, 7, 5, 8 certainly looks like it could be challenged at this point but that to me will be certainly stiff resistance given that it caused that decline there. A lot of this price direction hinges on what the ECB do on Thursday. Obviously it does directly affect the UK but it certainly indirectly does. Other things affecting the UK 100 but also the British pound if we flip over to that chart will be average earnings from the UK. We saw last week inflation dipped down to the joint lowest on record at 0.5%. So very little incentive at this point for the Bank of England to hike rates. One reason they might is if we get a further erosion of this cost of living crisis where actually wages go up. So average earnings push up whereas inflation is dropping. So then actually people are earning a bit more. Obviously the unemployment rate's been gradually ticking down so people are in a better place than they were and there's just less need for the emergency measures associated with a really low interest rate that we have at the moment. So particularly with the pound we've also been absolutely collapsing since we reached 172 and we're pushing into this 148, 40 type low that we formed back in 2013.  We've seen these two sort of long leg doggies for the last couple of weeks. So the unemployment report comes out at the same time as average earnings. If we saw a big tick higher in unemployment that would probably be pretty negative for the pound but if we'd see strong average earnings that to me could be a bullish catalyst off here because you can see this 151 we've not been able to get back through there since we made that push lower and we've seen some quite long wicks coming off that so definitely some buying interest there. So then if we can actually make it through that 152.70 which we can see a bit better on there. See this is basically the action on the four hour chart made that low. It came higher. Struggled to get through that 152.70 so far but again actually found some interest at these lows. So this is sort of interim resistance coinciding with this 55 period moving average. We've got through the 21 period. So above there could catalyse another test of 152.70 but really above there is what's needed. Kind of put in some sort of double bottom ish pattern and potentially to higher prices and to me the natural next area would be the sort of 155 essentially where these two lows were formed that we broke down heavily from at the start of January. Another one big one to note for the UK on Friday is that we've got retail sales. There was a US retail sales but pretty bad last week and that partly explains why US markets closed lower while European markets did well because the big hope from the drop in oil prices is that it translates to people spending a lot more. Let's have a look at the SBX500. We have a look on the weekly chart. See we've closed lower three weeks in a row now. Again some big kind of buying off the bottom as we saw in the UK 100. So definitely potential to push higher this week after three weeks of declines which you can see historically. One, two, three, one, two in an up and a down. We haven't had many three week in a row declines. Back in October 2012 we did. Maybe I'll go obviously here in September. Not many of them as you can see. Historically we've been buying opportunities when we've seen three plus weeks. Here it was four so obviously be wary. But edging towards buying opportunity when you see this many weeks declines. But yes US sales, retail sales were bad and so it would be interesting to see if that's kind of an international effect where these lower oil prices have really just not quite translated across into people going into the shops and actually spending that money. Something that's been driving markets today is we can have a look here. When it comes to China we don't trade a cash product but we trade the front month future. This is the China A50 index because this is today's move. I think that's over 10%. As we price it for the day. It's from above 11,000 down to 10,000 round mark. So this is a big psychological level that's offered support a couple of times. Well once and then another one so far. That's what we're reacting off. But they've changed the margin requirements or they've sort of the regulators are starting to clamp down a bit on margin trading in China. And that's what's based alongside a bit of extra regulation on their sort of shadow banking sector is taking a bit of fears that this massive run up that we've seen in Chinese equities which you can't see on this chart because it's just this front month future. But China shares over about a 50% appreciation in 2014. And without many pullbacks that was since they introduced an interest rate cut spurring speculation that there's going to be a new monetary easing cycle and new liquidity flowing in Chinese markets so they've been ramping up on the expectation of that. It's not really fully happened yet and these latest regulations may be the trigger for especially if we can break below this 10,000 and the China A50 could be the spur for a larger correction until we actually see some bigger move from Chinese authorities. But that certainly affects other markets. I think part of the reason we're down in Europe today and why US futures are down even though US markets are not open because of Martin Luther King is this slow down in global growth particularly emanating out of China which has driven oil prices and then recently copper prices which are getting hammered again today that's ahead of the Chinese GDP report that's coming out later tonight or in the early hours tomorrow and the people's back of China and the Communist Party they had a growth target of 7.5%. It looks like China may well be missing that growth target for 2014 and for the fourth quarter at least it's expected to come in at around 7.2%. So they're still much higher growth than in the developed world obviously but still much slower than they had been doing double digit growth only a few years ago. So a big slow down taking place in China and that slow down demand is half of what's explaining the drop off in commodities and if we have a look at this copper chart I should do another here. This is a longer term picture in copper it's a weekly chart. I did note before the end of last week that if we got a close back above this 61.8% level that could be a good thing because you see we bounced off this high from back in June 2009 that works pretty well as support and we did close above that 61.8 level so maybe that's as much of a correction as we're going to get for now and that could be the trigger for some higher prices now that the copper prices have sort of got in the press and things you can see that maybe we're a bit over done and it has perfectly coincided with this sort of 19 level in the RSI so if we get a higher, if we can return higher this week that would be extra confirmation and if we could actually push past this June 2010 low at the 270 mark that would be big and then that could be at least a push back to the 300 level. Whether we can get through there possibly not. That may be another area for selling to come in but this is the first sign this kind of long wick that we saw last week we pulled back over half the losses of the week we're down a bit again today so that doesn't really bode well but if we can hold above the 61.8% level again even get a higher close this week that would imply that possibly it could be getting up to 300 again and obviously just use the shorter term charts for any kind of candle or indicator triggers but I think as far as my analysis it really comes from this longer term chart when it comes to copper while we're talking about that kind of general demand slowdown story let's have a look at crude prices we actually got a higher close last week for WTI and I think Brent as well so that's the first time that's happened in a few weeks so now there are calls for the bottom to have taken place in 44 WTI and it wasn't far off and Brent was about 45 as well if we look at that Brent chart the low was 45-20ish and Brent that spread between the two really closed up so it's like pullback you can see the same thing going on in the Brent chart here we can connect these recent lows just about forming a rising trend line so I think the way to look at this here is a break below this trend line opens up a retest of the low potentially new lows and a breakthrough this level the 49-54ish we had a spike through there failed and that's kind of a bearish sign but then the fact that we pulled up again to the highs improves the likelihood of doing well we've broken above these short term MAs we're still being capped on the daily chart by the 21 so that will probably be the big one first through this little line of support here then a close above that daily 21 period moving average will be something a lot of people are paying attention to that hasn't happened since September obviously it didn't work then so it's not the beild and end all but we're obviously significantly lower than we were then and that was the trigger to break through that longer term rising trend line so bearish pressure was fully on there and that was going into the OPEC meeting up there obviously that's all pretty much priced in at this point and we are starting to see some evidence that the number of rigs all rigs in the US is declining as it just doesn't make business sense anymore to be extracting a certain value per having costs which need a certain value in crude per barrel which are higher than the current levels and that's part of why we got this move higher in all last week was the International Energy Agency report which suggested that supply from non OPEC members like the US could start to decline in 2015-2016 so certainly technically an interesting setup here in crude haven't got too in-depth into the currencies we've looked at the pound, we've looked at the euro yen is certainly an interesting one we're close to a double top here the break of this rising trend line I mean this is one of those tricky ones where there's two technical things going on here one is this break of this rising trend line which I tend to favour because we have broken through this 55-day MA and we did form a lower high there but we do have a bullish engulfing candlestick for Friday and this is what you would call a positive reversal for the RSI, a positive RSI reversal where basically RSI is made a new low and low but the price is made a higher low so basically price is held strong in the face of bearish momentum sort of shows strength in the market so it's really are we looking at this price trend line break to trigger lower prices or are we looking at this strong price in the face of lower momentum to push up the higher prices we're basically in a range right now with this sort of 115-116 as the base so if you're assuming even though we're below the MA's that will obviously happen in a range at some point you'll be above them some point you'll be below them but it's not as technically significant when it's a sideways market the MA's just hover in the middle so probably we're going to push up to the top of the range again and then if this broken RSI line has any merit then we're going to roll over again before we get up to 120 but we'll have to see we'll need some shorter term confirmation from the likes of the 4-hour chart to trigger our trades and if you're looking at a bigger move up into the range or down below the range then you might have a few false starts before you get there that's the nature of the beast not had any Q&A so I'm assuming oh okay, there we go so I'm just getting a question here on cable do you think it's going to want to do a retest of support around 150.75 going higher 150.75 I see what you're talking about yeah just these lows basically well I suppose looking at the 4-hour chart there's kind of little bullish and golfing pushing through the EMA would say otherwise I mean I guess as I see it this was kind of the level that I kind of deemed to be important here this green level we sort of pushed through there, retested then we just pushed below it basically ran a bunch of stops below it that became the new kind of support but it's still kind of a spike bottom so this vicinity of 150.75 to 150.90 is the sort of needed and I think we sort of maybe tried to get down there again and managed to pull higher without having to so we saw two tests at the top two tests here so I suppose the answer is probably no we don't necessarily need that but keep in mind it's a range and that's the support so it's not a trend that's the previous low you expect to rebound where we're getting higher highs and higher lows where this is the low and this is the next high it is a range so it can pretty much chop around anyway in between this and still hold on to its technical pattern so I guess my I would say we don't need a retest to that 150.75 but we certainly could and that would mean stops probably need to be below it somewhere below it obviously it's never great to be directly below it and so the higher you're buying into this range the less the trade makes sense so in a way sort of you know trading perspective you always want the best risk reward so it's maybe one of these where it's basically in the middle of the range at this point so that's the worst trade you can make in a trading range where buying or selling right in the middle you want to be buying at the bottom or selling at the top so if it does come down for another retest then all the better in terms of trading opportunity and risk to reward ratio may break through obviously but if you're only taking a small risk it could obviously then be that third test that's needed to get to the top so it's a trading style thing have an order down here and the off chance it does go for another retest for a better risk reward or if you think it's done you know buy more aggressively into the top of the range but you know realistically to be absolutely well to be the safest you can in terms of this range trade you need to stop below there but that's obviously a bit high so then you'd have your choice of having another stop behind these recent lows but it certainly could chop down through there and then run higher again so it's one of those situations where obviously with the benefit hindsight just that buying right there before you know as this move happened was the best trade that's already taken place but it may happen again so you could have another one I know that's a bit of a caveated response I hope that was useful though so that's about the end of the webinar at this point we'll run a little bit over but I hope it was useful definitely big with the VCB you know really in terms of European trading building up to all week is that ECB announcement on Thursday and you're going to see a lot to speculation probably the old ECB rumor mill will you know tell us a few little gems beforehand indicating what kind of thing it's going to be introduced often time there are leaks from sources open quote close quote that will give us a good idea of what they're planning I'm assuming a program that kind of kicks off QE in a small degree and sort of hints that it's going to be expanded should it need to be something that hopefully won't upset the Germans too much but will satisfy markets that some sort of asset buying is taking place which I think will probably be quite well received but you know should nothing be announced I think it will take a lot of you know a lot of talking from Mario Draghi to satisfy markets should absolutely no program be introduced so that could be the catalyst for low prices and retest of those levels we were chatting about in the Gemini 30 alright thanks all Jasper Lula signing off


The Anderson family. Oh, but, darling, if Junior says he didn't use the saw, he didn't use it. But he had it last. Now they're building a clubhouse and he asked to use the saw. Of course, but he didn't necessarily lose it. All the circumstances point to the fact that he did. Uh-oh, here we go again, folks. Well, this whole thing started at the office where Oliver Anderson spends a lot of his time. It seems as though some very valuable papers have been lost, and Oliver is implicated, according to the boss. Now, look here, Anderson. That letter was right with those other letters I sent in to you. Uh, look, I'm rather an alert sort, Mr. Thompson. At times? Yeah, yeah. Well, if the letter came in to me, I'd have seen it. Where do the letters go when they leave me? In to me. Right. And when I want a letter, where do I get it? From me. Good. So far you're betting a thousand. What letter was it? Letter? Uh, uh, uh, uh, close the door, Anderson. See? Yes, it is. What, what am I whispering for? I don't know. Look, Anderson, that letter is a bill for a corsage I sent to a, uh, a young lady, and you know how my wife is. I'll say I do. What's that? I mean, uh, yes, I know about her. Good. Now, now she wouldn't understand, of course. I never do. Isn't that the truth? This woman's name must never be repeated by anyone, Anderson. I know a fellow who takes his wife some sort of a little pet when he's been a bad boy. It works, too. It does. Uh, uh, I mean, it does. Uh, how does it work? Oh, well, if it's something small, you take home a bird or a parrot or something. Oh. If it's bad, then, of course, you have to get up into the pet monkeys, and so I... No! I will not take my wife a pony. Gee, that is that, huh? It's that bad, Anderson. If you don't find that letter before she does, you're in a spot. Yeah, but I didn't lose it. The circumstances point to the fact that you did. Uh, yeah, well, I guess it does. Just last night, the police chief let a criminal go, even though he had a lot of circumstantial evidence against him. That's the trouble with the chief. Oh, boy, I told him off. I'm on the committee, you know. I laid him out proper. You did. Yeah. Just watch where you park, Anderson. Yeah. Okay. Now find that letter. You better find the saw, Junior, before your father gets home. He wants to get it sharpened tonight. Oh, gee, Mom, I brought it back and put it on the back porch. I remember. It's not there now. Think hard now. What did you do with it? Oh, gee, I don't know. Oh, hi, Pop. Oh, home so soon, dear? Uh, yeah, uh, did I leave a letter here by any chance this morning? I didn't see any, Oliver. What letter? Oh, letter about a corsage for someone. Corsage? I know. I didn't see the letter, nor the corsage. Well, it was for someone else. For someone else? Yeah. I'm mildly interested. Well, I don't see why. You don't. Junior, go on out and bring in the hose from the backyard. Put it in the basement. Your father has something he wants to discuss. Don't start that, miss. Mom, listen. Now hurry. Do as I say. Hurry. Oh, darn it. I admire your frankness. I'll give you that. Some men would have sneaked to lie about it. Why should I lie about it? Oh, why should you have sent some woman a corsage? Gee, did I say that? Indeed you did. Let's talk it over, hmm? No, I have to keep her name out of this, honey. Her name? Is it someone I know? Oh, no, of course not. You know, Oliver, this is the first time in 13 years you've ever done a thing like this. It's the first time I've ever lost a letter. Oh, so there have been other times. Oh. Well, I'm sure you don't mind telling me more. I promised the boss I wouldn't even mention it. The boss? Yeah. You didn't send him a corsage.  I didn't say that. It's a letter of his about some corsage to a girl, and I lost it. Oh. Well, for heaven's sakes, why didn't you say so? Oh, I don't know. The boss has me upset again. But you didn't lose the letter, is that it? Well, the boss said I lost it. But you know how he is. Oh, well, never mind. Remember I phoned to have that saw ready so I could take it down and have it sharpened? Yes. The saw seems to have disappeared. Oh, no. I told you you're not to lose it. Well, he didn't. He said he left it on the back porch. Now, wait. No one's going to walk up onto a strange back porch and pick up a saw. But he says he left it there, Oliver. Look, now he asked to use the saw. He took it and used it. I didn't use it, nor did you. He says he left it on the back porch. The fact is there is enough evidence there against it. Why don't you run for district attorney? Well, I, huh? Oh, you think it's fun? First. Let's have a short lull, darling, till we see who this is. Good evening, Chief. Come in. Thank you, ma'am. It's Mr. Anderson Hall. Yes, of course. Oliver, the police chief to see you, dear. Oh, hello, Chief. Sit down. I can't stay, Mr. Anderson. But I've been thinking over what you said about me letting that criminal go. Oh. Because the evidence was circumstantial? Well, I'm glad you have. Well, all the robbery's going on. But, uh, Mr. Anderson, we, we, we can't just hold a man because he's out late or because he's near a place that's been held up? Well, of course. Now, being chairman of the sentence committee, I take my duty seriously. Yeah, yeah. But I'm, I, I'm in a bad spot. Yeah, I know. I'd, uh, I'd kind of like to have you go along with me on some of these things till I can work them out. Well, the only thing we decided on at the meeting is this. When you catch them, convict them. But what if the evidence is purely circumstantial? Convict them anyway. At least you'll get a couple of guilty ones that way. Well, I'm sorry to see you take this attitude, Anderson. Well? You could be in the same boat yourself sometime. You'd want justice. Me? I'm not a crook. Well, we won't go into that. Oh. Well, I'm, uh, I'm sorry that's your attitude, Anderson, but it, uh, might work out somehow. I'm sure it will. All you have to do is jail them when you catch them. Well, you, you can tell the committee I'll, I'll do just that. That's fine. I'm glad you stopped in. Yes, of course. Good night. Good night. I'm, uh, awfully sorry this thing came up, Anderson. Oh, well, maybe it's for the best, Chief. Yes, maybe. Good night. Good night.  Well, the committee expects it, Mary. I don't really mean to be that way. Well, never mind. If we're going to the Bronson's party, we'd better hurry. Party? What, uh, party tonight? Well, yes, the costume party that the committee's giving. You made the date yourself. Oh, yeah, that's right. That you, Junior? Yeah, ma'am. Party, costume party. Gee, Pop, I looked all over the back porch and the saw isn't fair. You know why it isn't fair? Now, I know what you're thinking, Pop, but you're wrong. Believe me, I did too put it there. I just know I did. Never mind. We'll find it tomorrow. We have more important things to do. Look, Junior, Homer's coming over to sit with you tonight till we get home. Oh, ma'am, not that. Gee, those corny stories he tells about back in Nebraska. He's come quite happy. Junior, what a way to talk about Homer. I know what Junior means. I've heard him too. Well, anyway, you'll be a good boy now. Does that take care of everything now? Yes, indeed. Now, let's hurry or we'll be late.   Oh, well, tough guys always wear caps like this. Now, I'll give you four sticks of gum and you'll be queen of the taxi dancers. This is fun. I haven't been to a costume party for years. I wonder if anybody will know us with these masks on. Not if you don't talk. Oh, all right. Get in now, queenie. Thanks, Bo. You got men as you have. Check, sister. Hey, wait a minute. What's this junk in the front seat here? Junk? A tin hat, sword, and a gun belt. Wait a minute. What's this? Look, Mary, Junior's got a real gun. Where did he get it? Oh, calm down. The boy's found it down by the creek. It's no good. Junior says it won't fire anyhow. Well, you never can tell with these things here. Maybe it does work. Look at that car window hall. That isn't loaded, huh? Well, I'll see that he doesn't get a hold of that gun again. Oh, give it to me, Oliver. I'll bury it. Oh, no, no, never mind. We don't have time. Just toss it alongside of me here. That's it. I wonder if anyone heard this shot. Well, if they're awake, they did. Homer may come running with his squirrel gun. Come on, let's get going. Fast. I think you'd better stop and get gas, Oliver. Gas? Didn't you get gas this morning? No, I didn't use the car. There's a station right there on the corner. Okay, don't point. Folks, could even fill her up. Nope, just four. Four? Trying to wean it? Brother, you listened to too many radio comments. Pardon me, sir. Four it is. I'll get out and see that I get some, too. Are you dropped something on the driveway, Oliver? Just that old gun. I'll watch it. Let's hear that last chime, son. Yes, sir. That's better. And put the cap on tight. All set, sir. How's your oil? Good. How's yours? Hurry, Oliver. We'll be late. A water okay? Yeah, perfect. Better let me look at the battery. No, I've seen it. Looks pretty good. I can get that windshield for you. Gee, how'd that window get broken out? It was shot out. And do I have to get all this service? Well, no. I was just being a good salesman like they taught me. I got a wife and three kids. I got a wife and one, and I'm not beefing. Well, gee, I don't want no trouble, mister.  Don't seem any guy's wearing caps anymore. Hey, I am tough, son. Well, I could shoot that cigar right out of your mountain, never nick ya. Gee, I read about fellas like you. Ain't you scared of the police? Scared of the police? Say, I'll take them on all day. You know how tough I am? They leave me alone. Gee, I... I don't blame them. And there ain't a jail that can hold me, pal. Put up them shooting arms, partner, and let's get it. Okay, babe. Gee, the phone. Now, don't get sore at me. Come on, Oliver. Leave that poor fella alone. He's actually scared. I must look like a warmed-over lightning to him. We go down three blocks. Turn left now. Hey, come back here! What's the station attendant, Oliver? He's waving something. It's that revolver you dropped out of the car. Oh, well, let him keep it. Hey, did you pay for the gas? Me? Well, no. I didn't bring any money. Well, neither did I. I'm Iowa. It's home in my other pants. Oh, well, you'll, uh, get it when we pass back this way. Hello, police? This is Sam Snodgrass. It's a filling station. I've been robbed. Get a squad car. Help! Do something! Two of them. He's got a mile with him. He was going to shoot that cigar out of my mouth. This license number is Q, like in Cucumber. Three, nine. Oliver and Mary were on their way to a costume party. Mary Dress is a tough name, and Oliver is a thug. They stopped to get gas and forgot to pay the man, who has, of course, called the police. Nothing has happened so far, and right now, Mary and Oliver Anderson are leaving the friend's house. I'll be glad to get a home and out of this outfit. Yeah. Can't understand why they gave Snyder the prize. Anybody could see he wasn't a bullfighter? No, no, no. Saw our grapes, dear. Where's the car? Oh, right over here past the hedge. Junior's all right. Oh, he and Homer are probably both asleep for this time. Homer puts himself to sleep for those gags of his. Well, here we are, dear. Okay, Mary. Copy him. Just a minute. Take it easy now. What? What is this? This your car? Our car, of course it is. What's wrong? No parking lights or something? I wouldn't be so cute, brother. Frisk him, Freddy. Frisk him? Frisk, what are you doing? Hey, say, wait a minute. This has a fine state of affairs. A citizen can't even go out in the dark. What is this? Okay, okay. Can the chin music, bub? But we live in town. This is Mr. Anderson. Oliver Anderson, that's me. Oh, Anderson. Yeah. See, where did I hear that? Oh, yes. The chief. Yeah. Oh, now, that's it. The chief will know who I am. Well, just to make sure, let's see your driver's license. Driver's license? Well, hey. Oh, driver's license. Sure. Oh, wait a minute. I don't have my wallet. That's all I want to know. Huh? This is getting funnier every minute. Well, wait a minute here. Over here, Freddy. They're riding in our car. And will the chief be glad to see this guy? Get right this way, babe. You with the makeup. What have you done to Oliver? Oh, he's cooling off in the tank. He won't get in bad company. All right, just follow me now, Toots. Chief wants to see you. This is positively humiliating.  Held up a gas station? I can't help you, lady. It's up to the chief. Oh, let me talk to the chief. He knows us. The idea. You'll get your wish, lady. Go right in. He'll talk to you. Chief, I've never been so humiliated in all my life. I, uh, know just how you feel, miss. I see it every day. But you know me. I'm Mrs. Anderson. Names don't mean a thing, miss. It's the crime that counts. Oh, but we've committed no crime. Committed no crime, she says. Yeah, well, here's the report. One, no driver's license. Two, parked without lights. Three, hold up an extortion.  What? Chief, that's a lie. My lady, we have the gun. Yes, and we have the witness who saw you and the man who held up. Oh, now look, chief, that isn't true. Oh, it isn't? Well, Oliver did have a gun in the car, and we did forget to pay the man for the gas. Oh, you admit it then. Well, of course it sounds bad. Yeah, that's what I wanted to hear you say. You admit that it looks like a pretty good case. Now, don't you? But we'll fight it. We're not guilty. I know you won't. And we'll get a lawyer and... Huh? You know we're not? Of course I know it. But, uh, by rights, I could hold both of you on suspicion of armed robbery with those, uh, masks we found in the car, the gun, and other things. Oh, but, well, what are you going to do while I'm here? That's what I want you to see. You know, he, uh, he's been giving me a tough time in council with his, uh, you're saying I don't hold people on circumstantial evidence? Uh, how do you like it up to now?  It is? Yes. Well, uh, you ain't seen nothing yet. Way to let a husband of yours gets in here. But, uh, remember now, Mrs. Anderson, don't, uh, don't tip them off. Oh, no. Uh, you, you might even help me along a bit. You mean to cure him of meddling? Right. Now, help me out on this, Mrs. Anderson. Oh, well, it won't take too long. No, no, no, won't take but a couple of minutes. Oh, fine. Bring in that Anderson.  Don't start pushing me around.  Okay. Huh? Sit down.  I only go on the evidence. Evidence. Now, let's see here. Let's see. No driver's license. You were driving a car. That's about $10.  And then, uh, you drove into Snotgrass's filling station, held up the attendant at gunpoint. I did no such thing. Snotgrass says you did. Oh, Snotgrass. And anyhow, we have the gun. We've got the fingerprints. Tell him all. Yeah, I'll tell. Huh? What do you mean? Well, the, uh, the little lady here just told a straightforward story and saved the county some money. Judge Brown will probably go light on her sentence. Sentence? Now, wait, Chief. Yes, Anderson, from what, uh, from what evidence we have, you're, uh, you're good for at least five years. Five years? You're good for at least five years. Five years. And with the, uh, committee crowding me, I can't show any leniency. Oh, he's right, Oliver. He's right! Mary, what's wrong with you? Well, nothing, but it does look bad, Oliver. I'll find it. I'll get out of here. Don't you worry. Uh, but Mr. Anderson, I, uh, I haven't even mentioned Larsonie yet. Larsonie? Uh-huh, Larsonie it is. Huh? Driving out and not paying and, uh, holding the man at point of gun. Mary, come on. Tell him how it happened. Now, wait a minute. I'll tell you how it happened. Oh. Send snob gas in. I'll get him. Oh, I don't know what to advise you to do, Oliver. Advise me? You mean you think he has a case? Oh. Okay, I'll go get him in now. Oh, yes, uh, yes. Come in. Come in, snob gas. Come in. That's him, Chief. Right there, yes, sir. Right there, that's him. Now, wait a minute. Of course, I got gas from you, yeah. And he, I, he was gonna shoot the cigar right out of my mouth. Oh, that. Well, I was. Some shooting, huh? He'll go about without paying. Oh, okay. Yes, yes, I'll admit it. Ah! Ah, that's what I wanted. Uh, a confession. That's not a confession. It's a. Oh, Oliver, you did. It's true. Mary, not you, too. No, no, no, no. Don't, uh, don't add wife feeding to this rap, too. Well, I'm not. But look, Chief, think of my reputation. I can't stay in this jail. He, he, Junior would be thrown out of the gargoyle club and, yeah, my job. Uh-huh. Well, it's, uh, it's pretty late to think of that now. Well, you don't. But I'll do this one thing, Anderson, just for the little woman there. Oh, you will? What? Uh, just a minute. Hello. What? It does. Well, now that's a break. Bring it up to me in 10 minutes. Maybe go now. Go? You know who just called? No. It was Ballistics. Ballistics? Who's he? They, uh, they fired a bullet from that gun of yours. Oh, that, yeah. And the, uh, the bullet matches the one found in the wall of the millinery store that was held up last week. Now, wait a minute, Chief. That's Junior's gun, right? Oh, I see. Throw the blame on your own son. Oh, I don't. It was an old gun, Junior, found in the creek, Chief. Yeah, he did, uh. Yes. Well, of course, it's only your word, Mrs. Anderson. But it's true, Chief. Believe me, I- This keeps getting worse and worse. Look, Anderson, up until now, I've got you down for 15 years. 15 years? That's not counting the gun thing. Oh. But we're, uh, we're kind of full in the jail tonight, so, uh, I'm releasing you to go home. Go home? I can? Gee, Chief, that's great. But what about Mary? Well, she can go too. Don't, don't worry about her. The judge is lenient with women.  We'll be watching you. Yeah, yeah. But Mary, he said 15 years. Oh, no, don't worry, dear. You'll still be a young man when you come back. Don't talk like that. You've already got me in for life. I wouldn't take that Chief too seriously, Oliver. It's probably won't come to 15 years at all. Maybe not more than 10. Good behavior. Oh, wait. You know darn well I didn't do anything. But darling, the Chief doesn't know. He just goes by the evidence. And Junior? Oh, now never mind. I'll tell Junior you didn't do it. But I'm still in jail. Explain that to him. I'll get the best lawyers. Oh, that's foolish, Oliver. It'll cost the state a lot of money. Cost them. It's costing me years. Oh, well, let's not cross our bridges before we come to them, dear. I wish I had a good high bridge right now.  No, no, no. Just take it easy. I'll work something out. Well, good. Well, I'll run on then. Junior gone to bed? Yep, yep. I've been reading a couple of magazines to kill time. Uh, what's wrong with Oliver, huh? Shall I tell him, Oliver?  Home? Home? Well, well, yeah. I guess I should, Oliver. Hey, yeah. Maybe tomorrow I'll feel better. Oh, that's all right. I'll just get my magazines and scooters. You understand, Homer. Yep, yep, yep. I do, yeah.  Saw? What saw? Well, your saw. I rung the bell, but there weren't nobody home. So I just took it off your back porch and I was going to leave a note. You took the saw? Well, gosh, I hope you ain't mad. He's not angry, Homer. I'm at that. Well, I'll be going along. Marthie's waiting for me. Thanks a lot, Homer, for staying. Yeah, thanks. Oh, that's all right. Glad to do it. So you're sure Junior was wrong when he said he left the saw on the back porch? Look, Mary, forget the whole thing. And you had to pick a fight with the chief because a lot of busybodies thought they knew more than he did. They elected me to do it. Sure, and you did it. The idea of making it bad for the chief because he let a man go. How do you feel about it? Now, you see the other side of it, don't you?  I'll admit the evidence is overpowering, Oliver.  Now you're getting sensible. Maybe if you told the chief that, he might help you. No, you heard what he said. I'll answer it. All right. Yes, Oliver Anderson speaking. Anderson, this is the chief. Oh, wait. My sentence hasn't started yet. What's funny? Funny? Why, uh, nothing, nothing. Let me do a tend again. Just using my authority. Well, you won't say any such thing. I know what you're up against, chief, but now it's too late. Well, Anderson, sometimes we... Talk it over with Mary? Yeah, that's right. And then call me back. Uh, yeah, uh, so long. The chief? Yeah. What do you mean, talk it over with a little woman? He said that? That's what he said. Well, then I'll tell you, he had no intentions of putting you in jail. He didn't? Of course not. Had he followed the argument you put up to him on that committee meeting, he could have held you forever. Now how do you feel? Feel? Why, Mary, I feel great. Hey, what a great guy, you know? People don't appreciate a guy like that. And tomorrow you'll go down and tell him so. That's like getting a reprieve, Mary. How about some coffee? You think it could be arranged? See? Catcher looks funny. Hey, what'd you do? Wash the dishes? That's cute. This cake out on the table. Cake? I remember I told Junior not to touch it. Touch it? No, no, no, wait a minute. You might have left it out when we went. I did no such thing. And the icebox door opened. It is. Well, you remember that catch on it doesn't hold any too good. It could have swung open, you know? But, Oliver, I left the cake in the cake box. Oh, you did. I know what it was. What? I bet those mice have been around again. That's what it was. Mice. Junior wouldn't do a thing like that. The Anderson family is written by Howard Swart, directed by Herb Lytton and features Dick Lane as Oliver, Louise Arthur as Mary, Walter Tetley as Junior, and Herbert Rawlinson as Homer. Others in the cast were George Peroni and Doug Young. Music by Gordon Kibbe, sound effects by Ray Erlenborn, and your announcer is Ken Peters. The Anderson family is a Hollywood broadcaster's production, transcribed from Hollywood.


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