All right. Good morning everyone. My name is Paige Jarvie. I am the Global Marketing Assistant here at PMMI. On behalf of PMMI, I want to thank you for joining us today. Today's webinar is one of a series of webinars that we have planned this year or, you know, have continued to market with, you know, Brazil and Thailand and a couple other ones. So we're kind of keeping on the same ropes. In a few moments, we will hear from Ajay Hamini. I do apologize if I mispronounce that. He is the Founding Partner and Director at IndeBraws Consulting. And he'll be presenting the latest findings from PMMI's Market Research Report India Packaging Machinery Market Assessment. And, you know, before we continue to find out some of the other things that we have going on, I do encourage everybody to visit PMMI.org forward slash global. You'll be able to, one, get all of the information on the India Packaging Machinery Report that we are going to present on today as well as a lot of other things that we have going on. And if you are attending Pack X India before I hand it over to Ajay, who will actually be at Pack X India, I do want to let you know a few events and services that we have in order to prepare you to go over to India. Like I said, we do have the newly released Market Research Report on India at Pack X India on that Friday, the 23rd from 6 to 8. There will be a presentation from none other than Ajay kind of detailing a little bit more on what we're talking about today. And dinner will be served. So please come and listen to Ajay speak and get a nice free dinner. We also have the India Agent Directory. For those who don't know, the Directory is a generated list of qualified international sales agents who are based out of India. And it gives you the information to connect with these packaging and processing machinery agents, distributors, and representatives to kind of help you get into that target market. And we also have a few complimentary services at our booth. It's in hall one, booth number E34. We will have an on-site interpreter as well as market information. And you will get to see Jorge Skirdo from Global Marketing Department. So I will introduce Ajay and I will then let him take over from here. As I mentioned, he is the managing partner and director at Indebras. And he is going to help us tap into growing questions and opportunities in India. Some of you may be thinking Ajay's last name kind of looks a little familiar. You're not crazy, I promise. We had a non. His brother, he did the Brazil webinar back in June and also was presented at FISPOL for us. So we have a longstanding relationship with them. And we do appreciate all the good information that they give us. Ajay and Indebras specialize in global sourcing and identifying and developing new business opportunities in retail and consumer product sectors of press emerging markets. Ajay has extensive experience in analyzing packaging machinery and capital goods sectors in India and has conducted several reports for PMMI over the past several years. So again, he will be sharing the findings on the India Packaging Machinery Market Assessment. And that is available to download on PMMI.org. Quickly some housekeeping tips. Everybody is muted. They entered in the webinar on mute. And if you do have any questions, please go ahead and type them in the chat box located on your lower left. And Ajay and I will get to them as soon as the presentation is over. And that way we can make sure we don't miss anybody's questions. Again, this webinar is being recorded and will be posted online after we conclude and everybody will be able to rewatch it in case you missed anything. So without further ado, I will present over to you Ajay. Great. Thank you so much. Good morning to everyone. And thank you for joining in. I would like to start off by thanking both Jorge and Paige along with the rest of the PMMI team. Firstly for their kind introduction and then along with that the ongoing confidence and efforts to promote global packaging studies. That basically these studies that seek to help companies such as yours to not only understand the opportunities and challenges of each market but also to understand the cultural nuances of doing business in them and what sales and distribution approaches are needed to be mastered in order to conduct business. I thank Paige for the kind introduction. I'll just give you a quick brief about myself. I've been collaborating with PMMI since 2002 in both Brazil and more recently now in India. My experience among others includes advising several FMCG companies regarding marketing and sales expansion strategies. The distribution structures that are needed for each market from imports all the way to the final sales of products and most importantly in this case capital procurement opportunities. You see when writing the reports we always find that when preparing them it is very helpful to take a client's view into account and that is what we try to do in this report in a very pragmatic way as possible. So just skipping to the next slide. Let me give you a quick overview on India to set the stage. Basically to those who have not been to this market I highly encourage one visit at least. Aside from the unique cultural experience that should last a lifetime it is currently living its golden economic and business era and is set to grow at 7.5% this year compared with global growth which you see in the news or through other reports that is anywhere averaging between 3 to 3.5%. And to top it off this market covers 17% of the world's population and is rapidly becoming one of the largest consumption markets in the world. If we just put that into perspective the population is currently four times bigger than the US and another perspective of the sheer magnitude of this number is that this country has approximately 250 million households averaging about five people per household and while two-thirds of that yes granted are still rural there has been a recent urbanization trend and there's a rise in nuclear families and along with the growth and mid-income segment that are driving demand for more packaged goods. So clearly this is an opportunity that just cannot be missed. Some more on India it's on track to become the world's largest middle-class consumer market by 2030 and while most of the population falls within the deprived segment earning less than $2,700 per year which is that lower section of the pyramid there are several government social inclusion programs that are currently underway there are aims that maybe not eradicating because that will be too tough but at least minimizing the poverty along with tax release to rural segments that will drive a better level of sustainable living across all households. So there's a lot of work being done over there additional socio-demographic trends such as increased participation of women and young adults in the workforce are also bringing behavioral changes in consumption patterns and what are these consumption patterns some patterns such as a greater search for convenience change and variety reusability portability and single serve packs along with the ready-to-eat and ready-to-cook options. Now at the same time and for those who have been to this market will find it fascinating and those who haven't there is the rule and low income segments that will drive tremendous growth of volume in packaged goods despite not having a very low income base particularly for those low price products in food and personal care sectors I don't know if anyone has come across these one rupee sachets basically they range from anywhere from condiments to shampoo where it's a daily use or a one-time use and if you look at one rupee that's equivalent to two cents of the dollar so you really have a mass market volume that can be explored as well even if you target the lower end segments. Some quick basic macroeconomic indicators that I usually find are always good measures for investor industrial and consumer confidence. India has now structured its public finances and its foreign reserves are what I'd say at the highest levels that they've ever been with GDP growth and inflation showing great signs of long-term stability and all these coupled with an impressive FDI growth which we recorded at 48 percent last year has made this one of the most favored investment destinations in the globe today. So these are all prime reasons to really consider entering this market if you haven't done so. Meanwhile if we look at reduced interest rates basically that means less savings and greater disposable income for consumer packaged goods and it also means if you look at it on the on the client side a reduction in borrowing costs that allows your clients to increase their capital investments including for purchases of new machinery. At the same time we must always be wary about the controlled yet gradual depreciation of the incurrency against the US dollar since it reduces the amounts of funds available that local companies have available for US dollar purchases and encourages local purchases basically makes US imports more expensive but if you consider the the sheer demand in the market for products and for machinery this should not impact it as much and in summary what I'd just like to say is that the economic conditions are prime they look great and the government is really on a fast track to liberalized investment policies reduce frictional costs which in other words deep bureaucratize India and boost industrial development and domestic consumption moving on to packaging industry today it is one of the fastest growing sectors in India where we're showing a 15 percent 15 compounded annual growth rate over the past 12 years to reach 32 billion dollars in 2015 now what's even more impressive is that with all the efforts that are going on in the market the segment is expected to grow at an even faster pace over the next five years and we're we're looking at a 73 billion dollar market by 2020 driven by a domestic consumption and b retail sales today there are currently over 22,000 registered firms in the Indian packaging sector alone and this includes everything from raw material to machinery to ancillary much material manufacturers out of these I would say that around 15 percent are considered large companies and yet 50 percent remain in the unorganized sector within the 22,000 we've found that approximately 700 companies fall in the packaging machinery manufacturers and out of these 85 percent are what you would categorize as micro small and medium enterprises so what does this mean is that when we do talk about consolidation and that's happening at a fast rate this market is primed for mergers acquisitions and partnerships and this you should take to your corporate level discussions to see that how is my entry into India going to be is it going to be via acquisition via partnerships and the the market is there for the taking but it requires a lot a lot of homework to be done and that we can go on and talk about further over the next few slides what we'll do is we'll review some market forces that support this packaging growth led by the booming internal consumption which I mentioned earlier the organized retail expansion and other segment specific such as food safety compliance acts and a shift towards consumption convenience see as I mentioned earlier the boom in internal consumption is bringing about much change in the packaging segment now out of the entire FDE FDI that was recorded during the past 15 years 8.2 percent belong to the FMCG sector and out of the sectors that we're covering in this report which is the food beverage personal care and pharmaceuticals we're talking about a size that is just shy of combined a hundred billion dollar market but what is more interesting other than the sheer size and is that India's become a global powerhouse in individual segments within each sector for instance I'm not sure if many of you are aware but India is the second largest food market today behind China it is the second largest producer of fruits vegetables livestock fish behind Japan and today is the largest milk producer and it's even the fourth largest pharmaceutical producer in the world so we're really talking about top five rankings across very important sectors of trade you know and these numbers keep getting updated every day and something or another always keeps coming up like just last week I read somewhere that India has overtaken Brazil and Australia as the largest meat producer in the world if you combine buffalo meat with the beef so it's really astounding that a company that is a country that is extremely religious and for that nature has a certain what do you call the constraints on purchases that a market like this can even turn to be one of the largest beef buffalo meat exporters it's just astounding we move to the next slide another equally important driver for the packaging market is the growth in this retail market we're expecting a one trillion market by 2025 we're traditional retail still occupying around 90 of the market online sales are also on a sharp rise with an expected 320 million online shoppers generating close to 120 billion dollars in sales by 2020 now we look at these numbers and I've said quite a quite some some quite large numbers over the last five ten minutes and what does this all mean to us well aside from the fantastic size and scope of the market you know the growing share of organized retail will require packs that promote longer product shelf life and that are sturdier to withstand for nationwide dispatches and also the intensified competition in modern trade will also require brands to reinvent their packaging material and design resulting in search for innovation when we talk about food compliance in a recent survey we saw that there are over 50 million food producers in India today but only 10 of those are licensed under food safety and standard regulation authorities many which have their home based cottage industries so just to just with the efforts that the governments are making to transform all these cottage industries into formal producers of food the sheer demand for packaging is is is off the charts really off the charts especially for food and here what we have is some packaging trends that came up during our market survey earlier this year on the food side I'll give specific attention towards the packaging norms which I just mentioned earlier which are generating greater enforcement of the food safety regulations through multiple government authorities requiring hygienic and appropriately labeled packs along with flexible packaging and ready to cook and ready to eat both of which are growing at 16 percent on the beverage side special attention to recycling pre-mix pre-mix juices and teas and carton packs whereas on the personal care a greater attention is being given to the premiumization of products so that packs can actually stand out at point of sale given the intense competition in the market and and some shift towards metal as a preferred packaging material meanwhile pharmaceutical sector we're seeing some greater move from glass to rigid plastics and clean label messaging and barcodes for over-the-counter products particularly with the growth of the chain drug stores that you see today in India so when we look at government data available regarding imports it is clear that the highest share of imports and here close to 50 percent occurs in the 84-22-3000 code which is the HS code that covers filling closing sealing capscaling or labeling and aerating beverages so we do have quite a skew towards those items but at the same time and also not too different from other developing markets we see Germany and Italy remain the market leaders in terms of machinery imports into India however recent growths have been recorded by the US by China and Sweden in 2016 and I'd say that the top five markets today the top five countries today corresponds to 75 percent of total imports into India and meanwhile India has an export market of its own it does exports over 170 million dollars of machinery last year but mainly to Asia Africa and Middle Eastern markets now this is an important slide to understand so I'm going to spend a little more time on it here basically what we have is a simplified working example of how import duties work in India using a basic example of a hundred thousand dollar cost insurance and freight at a rate of 67 rupees to the US dollar now if we look at the chart we can immediately see that customs duty accounts for 26.5 percent across all the three main HS codes but if we segmented further we see that there are five elements of customs duty three of them are pretty simple to understand which are the basic the and the educational and the secondary and higher educational duties those are levied irrespective of what the product is but the other two labeled CVD which are the countervailing duty and additional duty I wanted to touch base a bit more on that basically these additional duties are levied on imports to level the playing field with domestic companies that have to pay local excise duties and local excise duties are nothing more than inland tax on goods produced for sale or sold within the country so basically you're having to pay this extra 16.5 percent but what you should be made aware of is that similar to excise duties these CVD duties can also be set off by your clients over a period of time here is where understanding the local impact of a purchase from your client's point of view becomes very very very relevant while the overall cost of the machinery is higher when measured in initial cash outlay of how much the client is actually going to have to fork out right in the beginning at the time of purchase clients need to be made aware that they can claim the equivalent of both these countervailing duties and additional duties reaching up to 16.5 percent in their regular operations simply by offsetting these against excise duty payable so for instance your CVD you can offset over a period of two years and the additional CVD you can set off a hundred percent in the first year now this set off is possible until the time the full amount that was paid in CVD duty is absorbed and that is by not paying the extra by not paying excise duties for that period so while the client has to pay 26.5 percent at the time of import the client can actually avail the full 16.5 percent back in foregoing excise duty payments on local sales that's very important to understand this because many times when you go out for a sale or your marketing team or your local team immediately the first thing that happens is they'll look at the cost and usually it's higher than what they get in India but they'll also look at the duty and they'll immediately be set back and say oh my god 26.5 percent there's no way I can pay that but what you need to make them understand is that they can recover part of that in their operations there are also some other schemes that we can talk about later on that are very well explained in the report but in particular there's an export promotional capital goods zero duty scheme that really allows for zero custom duties provided the manufacturing company commits to exporting six times what he paid in the duties over a period of six years so this is why the KYC is so important in this market so unless you don't know what your what your client's business is it becomes very hard to have this type of discussion with them and now evidently I'm sure some of you may have heard that these structures will change with the introduction of the GST which is a goods and services tax that is currently under debate in parliament basically it's been approved a constitution amendment bill was passed in August just last month in the upper house representing all the states of the Indian Federation and the intent is to substitute India's multi-layered indirect tax consumption structure with basically a simpler tax regime that allows for uniform pricing nationwide and eventually cheaper products now both of these structures and rates have yet to be defined but what do what we will start seeing is that once this comes into effect the entire duty structure may change so this is something that we will be monitoring closely and you should request your local teams or at least next time for those who are coming to India we can always have a have a discussion and to see where where we have progressed with this but we believe that by next fiscal year GST should be in place in India what now I'll jump into the actual study when we we conducted 20 interviews with the FNCG companies five in the food sector five in beverage five in personal care and five in pharmaceutical along with three co-packing and conversion companies the details of each interviews are very clearly written up in the report but here I just wanted to touch base on some highlights what we saw is across all sectors there was an overall preference towards Indian origin suppliers with the greater skew in food and pharmaceutical and more evened out between foreign and domestic suppliers in the beverage and personal care obviously with the exception of multinational companies that depend on their global supplier lists and here is one of the recommendations in the report is really if you are selling to one of these multinational clients then you should check to see if your company is already listed in their global supplier list which would speed up the sale process by eons on the on the average purchasing potential we asked each of these companies what's your average purchasing potential on a scale of one to five where low one is low and five is high we we arrived at a 3.2 average where food had the lowest propensity to purchase but not because there was no interest but there was an underutilized installed base among the five companies that we interviewed so here what we would classify as the sector as an opportunistic expansion so if I do see the the need to enter a new food product line then my purchases will happen and they will be big on the beverages side we had a 3.2 rank where there was a need for systematic upgrades or expansions that happen on regular intervals so here we could classify the purchasing preference towards innovation and efficiency so show me a machine that can innovate show me a machine that can bring greater efficiency to my operations and I'm willing to I'm willing to talk on the personal care side which that basically led the purchase potential with a 4.2 score and here again we focus on innovation and attractive pack designs for impulse purchases so here the preference was towards automation and integration show me a machine that can help me pack in multiple different sizes and line extensions and I will I'll be ready to talk and pharmaceuticals stood at the at three at the three mark with the greater preference towards customization and maintenance and we we look at the sector as an ongoing growth sector given that the aging population is growing and there's a growth in the OTC market as well when we ask these companies what what is the process of procurement who makes the decisions we found out that usually the product development teams liais closely with the marketing departments to determine the new product development department then marketing takes a back seat and the purchasing policies are taken over by both the technical and commercial teams and similar to most developing markets all the interviews have taken into account traditional aspects in their supplier selection processes such as quality financial considerations and obviously the after-sales service level agreements now here this chart basically shows some of the criterias that were raised by interviewees when considering new suppliers or packaging machinery I'll give you a minute to take a look at it I'm not going to read out each point but what one can clearly see are commonalities among all sectors particularly in reference to words such as consistency efficiency material wastage customization and adaptability and I will explain to you a bit more about the reasons behind these words in the following slide then again all these all these elements are very well detailed in the report so let me just skip to the next slide now the following slide this slide is I'm just going to talk about some key takeaways from the company interviews firstly there's a preference towards suppliers that are able to provide production efficiency performance consistency and minimum material wastage now here is where we encourage our PMMI members to use everything in your arsenal from case studies to input output calculations and even live demonstrations that speak to the packaging machines cost-saving attributes these will always very heavily during the machine selection process next stage is most of the companies require trials to be conducted prior to purchase I cannot stress how important this is while this favors local companies it is also a call to action for many of you and your your teams to maintain local operating units on ground in India now in case you do not have a local team or partner I know that PMMI regularly updates a comprehensive list of prospective agents and potential distributors and I believe that's what Paige was referring to in the start of the in the start of this call and these may assist members in India to showcase and sell their packaging machinery I encourage members to review this list and get in touch with some of the listed contacts at your own discretion and convenience thirdly this is a technical and financial sale if there ever was one basically here we have a situation where you need to capacitate your local sales team or whoever is interacting with the clients to have the technical financial and cultural skills to complement the sales and marketing sales pitch they don't want just a marketing spiel you need to back it up because the competition is fierce in this market and finally uh limited budgets and bank finance uh have uh have have uh given words such as integration flexibility customization and that adaptability a lot of value because basically what you're having is there's a large one-time cash outlay for machinery purchase and many people are many of these clients are saying wait a minute before I go and make this large investment am I comfortable with this new product development that I'm that I'm putting out in the market given that there is a lot of unpredictability and that the market is extremely extremely competitive you know I've moved from Brazil to India just three years ago and I and I've worked in Africa as well and I and I have to say I've never seen such a highly competitive market as I have since I've reached India so what what I'm trying to say here and pass on a bit of my experience uh short-lived experience is that uh machines that we offer this market should champion the words such as integration and multitasking and one size fits all because people who are going to make those investments are going to have to justify to their boards on how do I maximize my ROI and can I extend the use of this machine to multiple product lines and line extensions should I be required to do so maybe my I start with a with a product a but market realities and competition has made me shift that product into a product B or a product C I should be able to do so with the same machine that I bought and finally some considerations if I could leave you with some few basic ground realities I would say that the perceived value of foreign made over domestic is really dwindling local suppliers are building on their own technical strength to bridge this gap and performance driven ROI coupled with high processing volume speeds ranges integration automation will remain the key differentiators for them to choose us machines over any other now basically it is about performance driven ROI for instance for instance let's say you're promoting automation then consider what the prevailing labor labor costs are in the market and how will this investment impact your client's operations before offering the machine this is where really again knowing who your client is is going to make all the impact and secondly cost sensitivity remains at an all-time high there's a boom period but that's also matched with the competitive intensity making this a long-term play market now they're also limited availability of government schemes and bank loans that require many of these clients to dig into their personal their P&L accruals to build up their capexic requirement so it's not so easy to go out and just get a bank loan many of these companies are actually whenever they are going to purchase they're going to do it from their hard-earned operational inflows so here what what another opportunity that arises is to provide supplier credit against bank guarantees here it basically is a fairly simple process that allows suppliers to receive installments via the U.S. based banks who in turn receive local guarantees from client's bank to whom the client has pledged some assets so basically if I'm a client I'm going to pledge my assets to my local bank my local bank is going to correspond with your bank and your bank is going to give that give that credit now this process basically allows clients to break down their machinery payments into installments without having to resort to local bank interest rates it also allows clients to hedge their dollar-based investments with forward covers of up to one year and that basically safeguards them against currency depreciation so these are some areas where you can really look into on how do I help making this sale into a more practical sale to my clients and finally one thing that we've seen that really helps is we have a tendency to to do a fully loaded proposal but what more and more Indian companies are asking for is for a decoupling of the quote by itemizing components between core and optional and this can allow clients to better manage their budgets so with that finally I'm just adding here a list of the upcoming trade fairs that many of you may benefit from while in India I do really do look forward to meeting many of you as many as I can with your local team representatives next week here in India the PAC X Fair and for all those that are considering other trade fairs please do drop in a note so either Jorge Paige or myself saying that you plan to visit and which dates and it'll be a pleasure to help you out further so I think that that concludes my remarks for today Paige I'm back to you awesome thank you so much Jay that was a very knowledgeable presentation we'll now open up the floor for the audience to ask any questions again use the chat box on the lower left of your screen to type any questions you may have and while we wait for questions to come in I would like to remind members if you are attending PAC X India that again a Jay will be there presenting a little more in detail on what he touched on this morning and the excuse me the dinner is on Friday the 23rd you'll hear again firsthand forecasting on the packaging and process processing excuse me machinery market and again don't forget to stop by the pavilion where you can take advantage of some of the other services again we do have a onsite interpreter as well as some market information hall 1 booth E 34 and again you are able to chat with Jorge he will be at PAC X so let's see we have a question here a Jay for a buyer in India what would be the net duties and taxes paid after recovering some of the taxes and fees okay thank you basically your your first cash outlay is 26.5 but then you will recover 16.5 over a period of two years and by recovering I mean you're not getting you're just getting credit on the excise duties that you will have to pay as a as a as conducting your regular business in India so rather than whenever I make a sale once I've processed my goods and I've got a final product I will not have to pay the excise duty I'll get a credit on the amount I paid on my duty so here when you talk about net you're paying 7.5 you're paying two you're paying one two you're paying 10.5 but you're paying 26.5 you're recovering 16.5 that's an easier way to place it okay thank you I did get a question also asked me if they can get a soft copy of the webinar yes you are able to again the webinar and the slideshow will be available online at PMMI.org I will follow up this webinar with an email detailing all of that information so everybody has it we do have a couple more questions we have question asking what should be the first city or region to visit when entering the Indian market oh that's that's that's a that's a tough one because basically I recall when I was doing a study in Brazil we were trying to plot every city that had more than one million inhabitants and I think I reached to 15 or 13 I tried to do the same thing with India and I just gave up after I crossed 50 so you know the demand is everywhere each each state you're looking at 29 states and seven union territories each state is is is a world of its own with its own language its own culture we've got each state has promotional the state is very strong in promoting industry growth so whether it be the state of Marastra or the state of Gujarat or the state of Tamil Nadu each one is having their own promotional promotional efforts so it becomes very hard to pinpoint which is the right one what I would suggest is wherever the clients are that would be the best bet because if you look at even logistics complexity what we're seeing is that many of the global clients or even the strong domestic clients ITC, Britannia, Parley to name a few on the food side they are opening hubs all across India so they're not that just benefit from avoiding paying freight so I'd much rather invest in the market because I know that the the the the state itself will be will cover all my all my all my demands okay and we do have a few more questions here what is the market share of vacuum-based packaging machinery we haven't gotten into that level of detail so I wouldn't have that information we can definitely look into it but right now we don't have a segmented beyond beyond the HS codes and that again is because of government data to go a step further would be a bit very I'm not clear we'd get the right level of information because we'd have to do a different type of study and interview each company as it has as its own because there are no government data that supports further details beyond HS codes okay thank you I'm not sure that this next question is a question it says how we analyze potential of packaging machinery and primary secondary and end-of-line packaging uh if correct me or I'm wrong I'm not sure how to pronounce last name Marathy um if you could clarify the question or Ajay if you understand the question I think I did I think I did I think that we've we've we've got a huge potential all across the board now what where where where it starts getting interesting is where is that opportunity you know where do you where right after core manufacturing comes primary packaging and primary packaging is I would say the most important part today in in the market and why do I say that because secondary packaging and end-of-line automation what we've witnessed uh in many of the service that we've done and many of the factories that I've visited you've got a huge huge labor availability in all these states and and just to put things into perspective uh where you're paying around 250 dollars a month to a worker uh or even 150 to 180 dollars a month to a contract laborer then your ROI for your uh if someone's going to do a make an investment on end-of-line or even on secondary packaging the ROI has to really justify it and and and and Indian people uh are very good with numbers they're number centric and they will get to the bottom of the the the rupees and the sense of the rupees to see is this something that I should carry on working on with my current labor staff or is labor getting too complicated are there too many laws in the pipeline that are going to come soon that will raise the minimum wage up to 25 percent that will justify the shift towards uh towards uh uh automation and towards packaging machinery so what I would say is that uh your for your form fill seal uh primary and then if you start doing carton carton bagging and boxing and all that that is still uh hugely dominated by the labor labor class uh next question is asking what do you think would be the market for end-of-line packaging uh again uh I it would it would have to be an estimate uh basically we're looking at uh at a still still a fraction of what it could be you know uh labor labor is still cheap in this market so I would I would I would have to do some more homework on that uh our ROI again is key in this market so we don't have uh it would be wrong of me to attribute a percentage towards uh towards what is primary what is secondary versus what's end-of-line at this juncture okay thank you and final question is can we see industry 4.0 concepts in India packaging in the India packaging machinery or excuse me packaging industry uh by that you mean the the getting into robotics and cyber physical systems um is that like the smart smart factory issues right uh yeah I yeah I believe I believe I believe that's that's what 4.0 was uh I I I do recall I'm sure I'm sure some companies I'm sure some companies already uh do this um I haven't I haven't witnessed it I know that in the PACTX there are there will be some stands with uh with the robotic automation procedures maybe more on the pharmaceutical for hygienic purposes uh but and maybe in beverages as well but uh but food and food and uh and personal care I'm still seeing a lot of uh hand labor as I'd say that we're still on uh I still I still we're still on second industry and not 4.0 2.0 instead of 4.0 right now uh computer and automation along with robotics will come into play but we're we're we're still far away from that being um that being widely widely used well again Ajay I do want to thank you uh and on behalf of PMMI to everyone uh thank you for participating um as a final note again you will receive an email with links to the events and services that I spoke about um as well as a link for an evaluation on today's webinar um if you would be so kind as to fill that out as soon as possible letting us know what we can do what we can do uh to improve you know how we present ourselves or um you know what we can touch on more or things like that um basically to improve the webinar uh and you will again be able to view the webinar online I hope to give it up by this afternoon uh if not this afternoon it'll be up first thing tomorrow morning um but it'll be uh for viewing prior to PAC-X India so again thank you everybody and have a great rest of the day


Over the last few years I've said that I really believe that Linux desktop market share is exploding in popularity because I see it. I see more people online talking about Linux. I see more YouTube channels talking about Linux. I see the channels that are talking about Linux on YouTube getting a lot of views, a lot of subscribers. More people are interested in desktop Linux and I've seen that but we didn't have real world data to back this up. I can't really just say Linux is becoming very popular just because of a feeling, right? We need actual data. Well, we have some good news here from StetCounter because recently they released this month's operating system market share and specifically we're talking about desktop operating systems. So not servers where obviously Linux would dominate. This is desktop operating systems only and Windows comes in at a rather low 68%. I was really shocked by that and OS 10, so the Mac OS, right, 21.38%. That is extremely high. I can't believe that Mac OS has that big of a market share on the desktop right now. So Mac OS is actually gaining a lot of users. Chrome OS is at 4%, unknown is at 3% and look at Linux, 3.08%. What makes this really great news is this is the first time Linux has ever come in at 3% in the statistics forever. Linux was always hovering around 2%. I remember a few years ago we were 1%, 1.5% here in the last couple of years we've always been above 2% but we never really could get above about 2.5%, 2.7% and this month we come in at 3.08%. Of course this month's market share, if you go back about four years ago, five years ago when I started my YouTube channel, Linux market share typically was around 1.5%, 1.6% in these same stat counter statistics monthly reports that they would do. Which means in the last four or five years Linux has essentially doubled as far as desktop market share, right? We have twice as many people using Linux as a desktop operating system today than we did just a few years ago. So I know a lot of people are going to look at this 3.08% number and say well that's still a really low percentage of the desktop market share but when you consider that we just doubled the number of our users here in the last few years, this is an extremely good sign and the fact that Windows usage is obviously declining. Which means pretty much everything else is gaining all of these Windows refugees. I think that's why OS X is exploding in popularity all of a sudden as well as Linux as well as Chrome OS unknown, this unknown category, this is probably going to be really old installations of these other operating systems but for whatever reason they can't register what these people are running. So it's probably really old versions of Windows probably is what these people are running in the unknown category. Obviously the rise in popularity of the Steam Deck is really pushing Linux adoption. As far as this graph here, this graph is kind of unreadable because you still have Windows that started here at around 78% and now it's around 68% over the last year and you can see that Mac OS has slowly risen but it's really hard to read anything else on the chart. You really can't view Linux because the line really doesn't move. I mean the move from 2.4% to 3% is such a slight move that the graph is hard to read so I actually downloaded that data as a CSV file and if we go back over the last year you can see a year ago last June where we're at 2.42% and we've slowly increased of course it fluctuates a little bit and these numbers do vary but you can see that there is a slow gradual drift up for pretty much all the operating systems at set Windows which of course is on a slow decline down. Now the April and May statistics of 2023 are a little weird because for whatever reason Windows only reported 62% market share was extremely low much lower than 68% for this past month but I think that was due to some unusually large readings in the unknown categories. The unknown was 13% and again those are probably mostly really old versions of Windows that for whatever reason don't register as a Windows machine so you know stat counter just put something in an unknown category but probably most of those are actually Windows installations. Some of them are probably really old Mac OS 10 installations as well which was a little low for those months as well but you can see OS 10 went from 14.64% in the last year to 21.32% you can see it was a pretty steady increase you know a couple of jogs down but for the most part it has been a steady rise and much like Linux has doubled its market share in the last four or five years if I went back to like 2018 2017 when I first started my YouTube channel and I was checking these statistics Mac OS 10 then was only registering around 12% 13% so it's gone from like 12 or 13% to 21.32% in the last four or five years so it hasn't quite doubled its market share but that's probably a 70 or 80% increase in market share which is an extreme increase which is probably one of the reasons that Apple now is a three trillion dollar company as far as their market cap but Microsoft is also a trillion dollar company they haven't hit the three trillion dollar mark but they're doing fine with Windows and then all their cloud stuff and everything and of course Google the maker of Chrome OS is also a trillion dollar company not to mention that Google makes a ton of money on mobile operating systems which we're not talking about today now one interesting thing is there is another monthly report that comes out from the guys over at Steam and this report is not as good because Steam obviously is surveying Steam users so gamers and pretty much if you're a avid gamer you're going to use Microsoft Windows right so you're going to see a huge percentage of Steam users using Windows you can see 96.77% that is insane right and then OS 10 1.79% and Linux 1.44% which is crazy that Linux has 1.44% compared to OS 10 1.79% so there's many pretty much as many people gaming on Linux as there are on Mac OS but again this is kind of a niche kind of survey because it is only targeted at avid gamers and specifically those that use Steam so the stat counter desktop market share percentages are a much better representation of what's going on so what should we make of this survey what should we make of this number well there's a few things we could make of this number for one thing if this number is real then this means that Linux has never been as popular on the desktop as it is right now and if these monthly statistics if the trend is real then Linux has exploded in popularity here in recent months especially so I think that's a good thing we're clearly growing right we're clearly growing faster probably than any other operating system on the desktop right now and when you couple that with the fact that Linux dominates server market share right now pretty much in the server world it's all Linux all the time and then in the mobile world the biggest mobile operating system obviously is Android which is built off a Linux kernel at least you know Linux is very healthy as far as the just general computer space now where do we go from here I think with the rise of the steam deck I think this percentage is going to continue to see a gradual increase I don't know if it's ever going to get to the point where we have a mac os 10 kind of percentage like a 20% market share I think that is kind of crazy to predict that could we have a 10% market share I think that's probably crazy too but it wouldn't shock me in five years you know another five years from now if I'm still doing this Linux YouTube channel if this number isn't say five percent six percent like we double again here in the next five years I could I could totally see that happening in fact I think that's destined to happen I think we're probably going to see another doubling in our desktop market share as long as our desktop Linux distributions don't drop the ball as long as something like the big desktop environments like GNOME and KDE plasma as long as they don't drop the ball if we start releasing some really buggy alpha quality garbage out there for people to use I think that would hurt us one of the things with free and open source software is sometimes we will push out releases of stuff experimental releases because that's the way we roll with free software right well we often break things and change things and I think we have to be careful about that now especially as we're gaining this popularity we don't want to give any of this back now before I go I need to thank a few special people I need to thank the producers of this episode I need to thank Gabe James Matt Paul Royal we as armor dragon commander angry george lee meadows nader yon paul peace archon vador realities for less red prophet rolling tools devler war gen two and a boon to willy these guys they're my highest tiered patrons over on patreon without these guys this little look at the stat counter survey it wouldn't have been possible the show is also brought to you by each and every one of these fine ladies and gentlemen all these names you're seeing on the screen right now these are all my supporters over on patreon I don't have any corporate sponsors I'm sponsored by you guys the community if you like my work and want to see more videos about free and open source software subscribe to distro tube over on patreon peace one in five desktop computers is a mech that hurts my heart


Okay, good afternoon, good evening or even good morning, I guess for some of you. Welcome to this week's live analysis session with me, Patrick Munley. If you can hear me and see the Tick Mill welcome screen on your screen, can you just type a Y in the chat box? And we will get going. Before we get into today's charts, as always, I want to pay attention to the risk disclaimer and understand the inherent risk involved in trading any financial instruments. Secondly, the views expressed here today are solely mine. They are not representative of Tick Mill and they do not constitute investments advice. Okay, so that's the disclaimer and housekeeping out the way.  My name is Patrick Munley. I have been involved in the markets for 15 years now. I wasn't always involved in financial markets after I graduated. I went to work in London in the city for a public limited company consulting firm and after a few years there, I left with a couple of the other guys who I worked with and we did a startup, a technology executive search firm and we experienced some pretty rapid growth over a 45-year period and I eventually cashed in my equity stake in the business when we merged with another firm and so I had a bunch of time on my hands and some chips to play with and started to explore my passion for markets. I had a front row seat, the dot com boom and bust scene guys make and lose a fortune quite literally overnight and I'd always been interested in markets and had friends who'd gone to work in investment banks and hedge funds and so I started to basically dabble slash gamble in the S&P 500 day trade in the S&P 500 in a market that was pretty much just going north and I caught some lucky early breaks started to make some solid and then really quite some significant gains but when the market phase transitioned I obviously without the underpinning or anchoring of a trading plan started to make some rookie mistakes and ultimately that led to me averaging down in losing positions to the point that I had experienced a six figure loss which was thoroughly gut wrenching and devastating experience fortunately at that stage it wasn't terminal for me but it was significant enough that I really had to take a step back and assess what it was I was doing and whether or not there was the potential for me to actually make a sustained income from trading and so I basically started to take this more seriously and I sought out a mentor through my personal network I introduced to a guy in the States who worked with me for 18 months, two years developing not just my technical game but most importantly my mental game and really it was a period through which I became far more self-aware and understood the psychological requirements to making it in the markets so I developed a trading plan, a business plan thoroughly back tested and forward tested and I came back to the markets January 2008 and since then on an annual basis I've managed to deliver positive returns on the screen at the moment you can see performance since 2013 the reason why it's since 2013 is that's when I started and managed the account service initially it was friends and family who saw what I was doing and wanted a piece of the action and it's grown organically from there it's now a multi-million dollar portfolio that I managed and again the whole drive there is this annual performance I'm not concerned by or interested really so much in the outcome of individual trades for me my focus is on the next hundred trades because I know that if I stick to my plan I execute with excellence and focus on the process then the outcomes will ultimately take care of themselves and I'm looking for my edge to demonstrate itself over like I said there's next hundred trades really and this is a big driver for me in terms of becoming, being process orientated as opposed to goal orientated in any other commercial activity or commercial endeavour it's all about goals, setting goals, financial goals and setting new business goals and that sort of stuff whereas for me and for the professional traders or successful professional traders I know we're about process and that's where our focus is because if we get the process right the returns take care of themselves and from the statistics here the most important statistic for me is this the idea of unprofitable seven out of every ten months and when I do lose my average loss in a month is 2.4% but my average gain is 8.1% so it's almost three to one ratio so you can extrapolate that down into my individual trading performance and what I'm looking to achieve in terms of profit the important thing in trading is when you win is to make more than you lose when you experience the loss and I'm not here to suggest that I'm winning 99% of my trades and I've got a gold plated Lamborghini in the garage I experience losses I experience strings of losses just last month, April I had six or seven losers in a row but because of my experience I understand the process of trading and I totally accept the fact that it's a numbers game and for me to get the reward I just had to be executing the trades when they set up I was able to get back to close to scratch on the month and I'm still up 9.3% on the year to date so it really is that idea of focusing on process and that's a message I hammer home to the guys I work with on a daily basis so part of the trading project obviously I'm a resident market expert for Tickmail I provide a daily market outlook and a set up of the day you can register on the Tickmail blog there to receive those in your inbox the other project I spend a lot of my time involved in is FX Chris, we're a leading online education trading education firm with a slight difference we underpin our education and we believe so vehemently in what we do and the quality of what we do that once you complete the process we'll actually give you a funded account with the opportunity to grow it from 10k up to 2 million dollars on a profit share basis at zero personal financial risk we have interactive education modules there are 10 strategies that I use a combination of over the past 15 years that deliver that have delivered my returns and there's also a great community there of like-minded individuals who are all striving towards this idea of becoming a professional trader and I'm involved in what we have a team chat heavily in that in helping to guide the guys and girls on the team through the process of making it as a professional trader we actually have at the moment a 14 day free trial offer a limited time offer for those who are interested in trialing service and you can sign up using a link I'll post the link in the chat at the end for you that give you an opportunity to see what it is we're doing at FX career swap that's a flavour of where I'm coming from in terms of what I want to discuss today let's move on to the charts this is the dollar index monthly chart this is what we were looking at last week and we were looking to see if we got that close below this trendline and lo and behold we did in the end and I suggested last week that we could we likely see some back and filling now that May has from a seasonal perspective tended to be very strong for the dollar I've had some dollar longs in play this week and we're backing and filling as I anticipated ultimately what I'm looking for is the vast amounts of liquidity that are being channeled into the market the various guises of the Federal Reserve we're looking at $3 trillion flooding the markets over this next period I believe that that's going to lead to some dollar weakness certainly I think we'll see maybe not during the summer months but maybe as we're heading to the election period in the US I think we'll start to see this dollar have a bit of a wobble and I'm certainly looking to trade that from the short side if you look back through the recordings on YouTube I've posted these slides a bunch of times about where I see these dollar cycles this is explaining the liquidity that's being plowed into the market and how that should ultimately impact the trading we should see certainly some trading opportunities on the short side of the dollar like I say after having these dollar longs I've got a buy signal on Monday I've traded up into this trend line I've taken profit on those dollar longs I'm watching to see how we react now at this trend line in a minute we'll look at some of the majors at the reflection point we'll see we've had a break just above it there running some stops we'll see now if today we get a reversal in the dollar and potentially head lower now after we get a close above the trend line and we take out the trend lines I'll just show you this is the trend line we're sitting on in terms of cable we're going to run higher earlier this morning on the BOE but if we can defend or if bulls can defend this one twenty three area and I see the potential for another leg up here and an attempt to challenge this one twenty eight area one twenty eight represents the seventy eight point six percent retracement of this decline we've also got the monthly R2 up there and the weekly R2 but to get confirmation for this I need to what I'd like to see is a close back above the near term volumetric average price so that's currently coming in around one twenty four twenty so to get confirmation for this potential move we'll need to see that close if we don't get the close if we fail below the trend line here then similar to dollar index then we can look for an initially an equality move which would put us back down testing one twenty two and if we if bias fail to show up there then we've got a lower downside objective here fifty percent retracement one six one extension of this structure puts us at one twenty so we're at an inflection point a decision point to the market and we're going to see how that plays out in the coming sessions and similarly in the Euro we're sitting at this trend line support you can see the momentum studies here are also sitting on trend line support and starting to just tick back up a bit so I'd like to pay attention to these trend lines in terms of the momentum studies and we'll see if there is an opportunity for the bulls to step back in here in the Euro as we're sitting on the monthly S1 and this trend line support area from quite tested volatility sport bands but we'll see how we trade out the coming sessions here obviously with respect to the Euro I posted this in the team chat we've got some massive option expires between 108 and 109 going off today and tomorrow in that's three p.m. UK time it's called the New York cut and so we likely see a range support here for the Euro based around hedging strategies by market makers with respect to those options so I've got to put on an initial long here in the Euro and I'm going to use some of the profits available in the short side to give me some wiggle room here and we'll see how we trade but we'll see if we can get a reversal certainly back up through 10850 would be encouraging then I think we can head back up to test certainly back to that 109 where we get these options rolling off tomorrow so I think we're in 108109 range at the moment however if we close below 10750 then again similar to the cable story 10750 would be and certainly then we would be looking at downside targets so initially what we have in play would be a move back into these range loads here so this would be in a quality move versus this structure we can get it actually off here as well so yeah if we take out 10750 on a closing basis that would be a bearish development for the Euro and then we need to be looking at the other side trade initial target down to this 10630 the year to date loads would certainly be pressured there but like I said at the moment with these options in play we're likely we should see this 108 support area prove to be sticky in the short term and then we'll see how the market responds once these options are rolled off tomorrow obviously we've also got non-fun pay rolls coming up tomorrow we're expecting 2.2 million job losses of staggering figure and we'll just have to see I mean if that number comes in heavier than expected then I think that could feed through into some dollar weakness because that will obviously then suggest that the Fed are potentially going to have to increase their stimulus and that should potentially weigh on the dollar so keep an eye on those non-fun payrolls figures tomorrow in terms of other markets I'm watching the S&P 500 is one that's on my radar at the moment let's go here and see it what I'm looking at with the S&P is we've held some symmetry swing support versus this prior corrective move here you can see we tested back down into that area and got a reversal if we pull it back further to this first leg here you can see we pretty much held it to the tick and we're seeing push higher watching this 28 28, 70 on the closing basis we'll take out that on that level of closing basis certainly I think we can retest these highs at 29, 69 and ultimately what I'll be looking for is a run up into this resistance zone this again 78.6% retracement of the entire decline we've seen and the 161 extension of the initial corrective structure so this will be a key area for me in terms of looking at the potential for doing something on the short side I've played this over the past few weeks from both the long and the short side I'm not suggesting that no one knows what's going to happen and this is an important concept in terms of trading I don't need to know what's going to happen next for me to make money over the long term but certainly if we get up into this area and I could see us retracing again 50% of the move would be a natural occurrence so if we can get up there 31, 40 I can see us back trading into this 26, 60 area and who knows then again another key decision point because if the bulls decide to step in and the coronavirus pandemic news with these economies reopening to start to look a bit rosier then all-time highs could be taken out that seems a lower probability scenario at the moment but certainly one that could be in play again the beauty of having the ability to analyze markets in a consistent fashion gives you the ability to market maps so you can prepare in advance for these scenarios and the reason why this style of analysis works effectively is that we're just using prior swings in the market we're not coming up with ludicrous targets or ludicrous ideas in terms of where prices are going to go we're using measured moves if we accept the fact that markets certainly rhyme if they don't necessarily repeat then price action is the best guide for where things are likely to head through 2870 through take out these prior highs this is the quality objective here at 2899 so through 29 and then I think it's certainly retest of highs on route to the 3140 now if we believe or if we accept that this is that's the bullish scenario in terms of the S&P then I certainly want to pay attention to what's going on is what the N crosses the Aussie yen the Kiwi yen have form in terms of tracking equity markets and you can see here getting a bullish reversal potential outside bullish reversal we've got the RSI stochastic back down below 20 so in terms of momentum there's plenty of scope here from the for the upside and we've got some upside targets similar to the idea that just mentioned in terms of the S&P We've got the 78.6% of the trades. We've got this prior lows. We've got the equality objective versus this structure. So we could easily see now a run up here into this 72 area, currently trading 68. So we need to get this bullish close here with the BWAP. And there's the opportunity to take a look at Long's targeting this 72 area. Similar story in the Kiwi Yen. Nice bullish reversal from the range support here. And again, we've got these upside objectives. We've got the equality objective versus this swing from this swing low up into the 69.50. Again, 78.6% retracement on the cards. We've got the monthly R3. We've got these prior lows here. So, you know, there's a decent chance that if we get a good reversal here in terms of the Kiwi and those futures, lift the S&P 500, text out 29, then we can see this grind up towards this 70 area, currently trades 64.50. And again, the invalidation point for that idea would be taking out these swing lows. So that's the Kiwi Yen. Let's take a look at the Euro Yen. Euro Yen has tested down into three year lows. But what we note here is that again, we've tested in the quality objective. So we have this leg and equal leg down here and we pretty much hit it to the pit there and we're trying to put in an inside bar reversal here. In terms of the strategy, the call swing strategy that I teach, VWAP is a bit dispersed here. So this would be a price action play because at the moment, obviously this candle is green without the proprietary indicators. If I take that off, you can see this candle is green. So I mean, if we can get a bullish reversal here closing back towards the highs, then in a pure price action strategy, again, using the analysis, the core analysis and we're obviously trading into that two to three standard deviation VWAP support area. Then this setup has merits and certainly one I'll be watching on the close tonight. And again, if we do see this Euro yen reverse here and it's still an if at this stage, then that should add some support to the Euro dollar as well. So keep that in mind. The Swiss yen is also one that I'm watching again. The Swiss yen has traded into its equality objective and is looking to find some support here. Really wanna see a key reversal back up through this 10950 to get bullish there. But certainly there's a trade and what's the first target? Well, you just measure move, use the measured move of the last tick higher that we saw here in Swiss yen. So I mean, we could reasonably expect to move up to that 111 area certainly before you can see renewed selling pressure. So that's what I'd be watching there in terms of the Swiss yen. Kiwi and the Aussie are also a watch. We're reversing here in the Kiwi since you're putting in an outside reversal. And again, these commodity effects tend to trade with risk sentiment. So if we see an improvement in risk sentiment, these futures get moving today. Then this Aussie could also have legs to the upside. We've got an upside objective here at 6448. That's the quality objective versus this structure. And then let's just bring in the fibro-tracement. So there's the swing high. And again, you can see that 78.6% as well. So these targets are certainly valid from my perspective in terms of upside objectives to trade for. Let's take a look at the Aussie quickly. So I mean, again, this was a set of, I've been in this trade this week short. Ultimately, break-even exit just wasn't really playing ball on the downside. Supporting again, because we haven't seen this S&P roll over, that adds support to these commodity effects. But central tendency, we've got a bullish monthly VWAP that trading above the monthly pivot could take out the weekly pivot on a closing basis here. So again, there's a long opportunity here from a taxable perspective. And where's our target? Well, shouldn't be a surprise at this stage, but what we're gonna be looking for, or what I'm looking for is that, is the equality objective. So again, bringing in that extension tool. So versus this structure here, you can see we have 67 on our radar. We've got these prior swing lows over here. So I mean, once we get up here, certainly I'll be looking at how we trade here. Because again, at this stage, this is still a corrective structure versus this impulsive decline. And certainly what we could reasonably expect from a test up here, is we could then see a 50% of the tradesman. And from there, again, then we move into another decision point for the market. This would certainly give this opportunity. And then we'd again, watching for these key inflection areas, watching how price responds, and then entering once we get a price action confirmation, as like I say, as with my core swing strategy. I think that pretty much covers the main opportunities I've got on the board at the moment. So I'm watching Euro, Sterling, watching the dollar index, all testing these key trend lines at the moment. So I'm gonna be looking for opportunities to short the dollar here, if we can get price action confirmation. If they break, if these trend lines get taken out, and the dollar gathers some steam, let's just go back to the dollar chart, in terms of the upside objectives. If we do get a going here, and we hold, and we trade through this trend line, certainly 101.15 would be the next upside objective. So symmetry, sorry, equidistant swing, quality move. And if sellers don't show up here, then we're going back to retest the highs. And if we, again, if we take out those highs, then there is actually a target, the quality of target up here at 106. Obviously, this would be inflicting significant pain on the markets, this type of dollar strength. And again, this will probably be a blow-off move to my, in my mind. And certainly I would expect that the Fed and certainly Trump would be doing a lot of dual voting at that stage with respect to dollar strength. So, you know, from a strategic perspective, I'm still on, I'm in the bear camp on the dollar, but I, you know, I trade it tactically. Obviously, if I, when I get the, when I get sell signals in the dollar, I'm going to try and write those trades because you never know which one it could be the, the start-off of this bigger decline in the dollar. But, you know, I'm trading tactically around that idea at the moment. Like I say, just, just all I've got running at the moment is a euro long, closed-out shorts in Sterling and the euro. So that basically brings it up to speed with where I'm up to. Are there any questions? Are there any charts anyone would like me to take a look at that I didn't cover that could be of interest? You can just type them in the chat box and I'll have a quick look at them for you or type an N in the chat box just so I know that you're all awake. D-B-P-A-U-D. Yes, I mean, we're rolling over here. The Sterling Aussie has taken out, you know, this trend line here. Let's just, you can see we've got, you know, we've had this trend line support being eroded. We came up to basically to make an attempt here to retest it from below and we rolled over. It was inside candle here. So you could, you know, you can make the argument for continuation trade on the basis that the RSI stochastic is back up, testing that 80% level. So you've got momentum on your side and certainly, you know, in terms of downside here, we could reasonably expect an equality objective. So that will put us into this 186 area and you've got that pivot cluster as well there as downside magnets. Again, the alternative scenario is that, you know, we base what it looks less likely at this stage, certainly, but if we did, for whatever reason, find some sort of support here, then, you know, we could run back up, get that underside test and still it would still set up this downside move. Equality objective, even lower down to 180, but it doesn't look like that's going to be the scenario at this stage, but it's probably break lower and make a move for this 186. Good stuff, nice to meet you, well done. Aussie Swiss, Aussie Swiss. Yeah, I mean, so this one, again, if you just look at the Aussie complex at the moment, it's pretty much green across the board here for the Aussie. So I think we're on track here to certainly retest these highs. RSI has to cast it is back down in the 20s zone and positively diverging. So I mean, the setup would suggest that we're probably going to take a look up here if we bring in the bit of retracement. So again, this idea of that 78.6% retracement zone and what we don't have really here though is, I guess you could use that, but there's not a clear structure there to measure the equality objective, but if we're looking at this prior swing here, for example, and we just overlay that there, then it looks like all roads point to a test of the 65 and obviously that would coincide with the Aussie making its move. So when you're looking at those crosses, it's always useful to look at the major for your guides and we can see here that we've certainly got a confidence up at this 67 level and we'll see how we trade when we get up there. Okay, if there aren't any other questions, I'm going to wrap this one up here. Like I say, if you want to take advantage of the 14 day free trial for the trade pro program, please do so. I'll post the link now in the chat and you can sign up there and you can get, for whatever reason, I can't post the link, unfortunately, but you can see the link there, it's fxqueerswap.uk, forward slash trade, hyphen pro, hyphen free, hyphen trial, hyphen Patrick and you can take advantage of the free trial and access all the information and have access to me on a daily basis for the next 14 days. Okay, I'm going to wrap this one up here. Guys and girls, thanks very much for your time and I hope this was helpful and I'll see you all sometime next week.


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Hi, everyone, Sean with jaspyscasebreaks.com here doing 2020 Peony Contenders Optic football 10 box case break pick your team number three on release day All card ship. This is my first in-person look at it, but From a fresh case, so let's see how it goes Here's the list of customers and respective teams from Mark Neubauer and the Cardinals down to Peter Eng and Washington football team and Andrew Sanker with the Cowboys with last spot mojo Here is that list in print show And the fresh case so We got to figure out which boxes which inner case we're gonna do for pick your team number three And which one will be coming up for pick your team for which is in the store now, and I think Pretty close to filling so we can do that tonight So two inner cases in here. We're gonna roll a dice to figure out which one we're gonna do for this pick your team Three which one's gonna say for picking four Which I expect we'll do tonight so one two three on the dice for box on the case on the left four five six On the dice for the case on the right. Good luck it's a four so Place on the right this one here will be for pick your team number four They're great Eric. Love luminaries. Those two are backwards NBA player has the most championships That's um Bill Russell He's got coaching and yeah, he's got coaching and Playing championships doesn't he have like 11 or 12? Got a redemption Starting off with cj. Henderson clave on chase on for the jaguars Jerry bennington James robinson also for the jaguars and jerry bennington patrick mahomes chiefs matt lever These are sharp Leviscus should all junior red for the jaguars this jaguars box so far jerry bennington That's numbered out of 125 and our first auto Is curtis weaver Boise state But that goes to the cleveland browns and michael grant first redemption out of the case Rookie ticket rps autographs orange Orange is numbered out of 50 like the curtis uh weaver we just pulled card number 120 C i'm gonna say Clyde Edward Gilaire Oh, no chase claypool Pittsburgh Steelers michael galucci There you go michael congrats Is he with big nice? It's a pretty good one Orange out of 50 You guys get to arizona. Okay, i'm assuming Jeff gladney justin jefferson duel for the vikings randy lew Van jefferson for the rams angel ocevado marquise brown for the ravens erin billingsley tea higgins red for the bangles parker wilson out of 125 nice rookie ticket auto grant delpit for the browns michael grant and all-time contenders on-card auto joe thomas for the browns michael grant 11 out of 50 Three autos so far for the browns Did somebody from the dog pound the browns fan club specifically packed this case? Yeah, i've uh i've seen pictures of the nebulas. Did we pull any of them? henry rugs demonard net for the raiders robert runkle van jefferson again for the rams and angel ocevado joe mixon for the bangles michael or sorry parker wilson quichean von for the buccaneers kevin sullivan Oh, okay cool out of 125 Curtis weaver again for the browns now four autos for the browns michael grant and antonio gibson rookie ticket auto for washington and peter angt cuts out a lot of players that cuts out a lot of players brian because even a lot of those players have have played for teams afterwards javon kinlaw and brandon iuk for the 49ers william frazier 13 out of 99 that's a good question antonio gibson for washington and peter angt um elway terry mclauren for washington peter angt you can say rogers, but at the same point i think rogers will probably end up playing for a different team so maybe elway kyla murray silver hollow for the cardinals mark newbauer terrell lewis for the rams angel ocevado and chase claypool we had a redemption for him earlier so apparently he didn't sign the orange this one signed steelers michael galucci 93 out of 99 i thought bradshaw the bradshaw never played for another team so that claypool was out of 99 the orange would have been out of 50 so i guess he just didn't sign that one so yeah maybe bradshaw i don't know still a good debate well then yeah it's got to be bradshaw kyla murray for the cardinals mark newbauer mvp hollow deandre swift for the lions angel ocevado travis kelsey for the chiefs matt leber philip rivers for the colts a j anderson silver hollow right there and john hightower little green pulsar for the eagles three out of 27 philadelphia eagles eric angel and jonathan taylor for the colts and a j anderson 91 out of 199 i think the homes is likely to never leave but awesome jake so yeah i'll add that to the schedule t higgins oh that's terrible brian bangles parker wilson oh he's awesome hulio jones for the uh falcons hosier agon juju smith schuster to 125 for the stealers michael galucci damon arnett rookie auto for the raiders robert ronkel and anthony mcfarland jr rookie ticket auto for the stealers michael galucci so so far it's been browns and stealers i mean didn't elie manning end up finish his career with a negative winning percentage i thought he was one game under brian is that 117 117 is that including playoffs i think regular season record i think he's an under 500 quarterback jaylen regor for the eagles eric angel gardener minchoo for the jaguars jerry bennington julian edelman who apparently can't play a full season healthy anymore if what they're saying to 125 for the patriots kevin sullivan cj henderson for the jaguars jerry bennington and anthony mcfarland jr again for the stealers michael galucci i said stealers are crushing this break 89 out of 99 i agree jake but elie manning super bowls were not him cj henderson and clave on chase on dual for the jaguars jerry bennington jake abeason for the colts a j anderson baker mayfield for the browns michael grant jared gough blue for the rams nice team color matching there for angel osavado 48 out of 99 dj dallas for the seahawks and rick thomas and jonathan taylor red again for the colts a j anderson that is 175 out of 199 two boxes left let's get a big quarterback to finish it off here nice joe burrow in zone that's pretty cool bangles parker wilson like look at that joe burrow rookie ticket as well bangles and parker wilson it's a joe burrow box roquan smith for the bears charles wolfkill michael thomas orange should be out of 50 for the saints robert escoto 50 out of 50 ebay one of one yes thousand times rookie ticket terrell lewis for the rams angel osavado right oliver it's north we're crushing it and rookie of the year joe burrow this was a joe burrow box bangles parker wilson 29 out of 99 a hell of a box for the bangles directly three joe burrow in that one box and last box guys good luck if this was a division break afc north would have taken almost everything huh erin roger's winning ticket is that orange or gold he gets orange out of 50 25 out of 50 for the packers shawmatic jordan love for the packers shawmatic ben rothasberger for the stealers michael galucci nice jake lutan rookie ticket red for the jaguars jerry bennington to 125 ben denucci rookie ticket orange for the cowboys andrew sanker last spot mojo 37 out of 50 and final auto of the break rookie ticket darin ten evans for the titans and patrick davis and there you go guys that was the first inner case from the master case pick your team four still has spots left maybe some of these hot teams are available in that case still maybe it's going to be completely opposite we'll see but there you go guys that was 2020 punini contenders optic football 10 box case break pick your team number three from jasky's case breaks dot com i'm sean jasky's case breaks dot com thanks for hanging out and i'll see you next time


Next we have James Carroll, epiphenomenalism, the problem with property dualism. James has a PhD in computer science and a minor in ancient Near Eastern history. He taught Institute for several years and as a graduate student taught Pearl of Great Price, Isaiah, and the Book of Mormon, part time, in the BYU Ancient Scripture Department. He is currently serving a post-doc at Los Alamos National Laboratory doing ensemble machine learning research and computer assisted radiographic analysis for nuclear stockpile stewardship. His interests involve artificial intelligence, machine learning, statistics, linguistics, epistemology, consciousness, comparative ritual and ritual practice. A current list of his publications is available on his website and you can see that in the program. Thanks, James. Thank you. My topic is philosophical and it has to do with consciousness and it has a whole bunch of background to it and the challenge is gonna be to present that background in the time allotted. Those of you who've been following Brent and my arguments on the mailing list will know something about what I'm about to talk about. So what is it that you experience? I want you to all look at this red strawberry and think for a minute. What do you see when you see a red strawberry? How about when you touch someone's hand? What do you feel? What do you taste when you taste salt? It was Brother Packer's famous analogy. What is it like to taste salt? What is it like to smell a rose, to hear a symphony or to feel the extreme pain of an injury or the extreme pleasure of human intimacy? These things, sight, touch, taste, smell, hearing, pain, pleasure and many others constitute what it's like to be you. I had to point to a borrow the famous phrase. There must be something it is like to have these experiences and where do they come from and what are their nature? Now that's one of the hardest questions in all of philosophy, theology, artificial intelligence, computer science. This is the hard problem to figure out where these things come from and to explain maybe why it's so hard. Oh first, there are several theories about this, right? There's a typical spiritualist theory that says that light hits your eyes. There's a perception process. There's some pre-processing that goes on. This is the subconscious pre-processing, that edge detection and all this other stuff that happens in V1 through V8 or whatever that is in the visual cortex. And then somehow that gets passed to the conscious you. And the conscious you then experiences that. And so the spiritual idea is the conscious you is some spirit that lives over here. The black arrows are causal natural laws and the red arrows are supernatural laws or that operate in the supernatural. And this is one theory, right, of how this works. And so the processing gets handed to your spirit. Your spirit has the experience, your spirit then affects the processing and therefore the spirit affects the behavior. Of course then there's the materialist view. Oh and as a side note for the Mormons in the audience, of course, if you believe Joseph Smith that spirit is just matter, then of course the red arrows become black arrows and there's no such thing as the supernatural, right? But we're just giving you some of the theories that are out here. Then we have this version which is the one Daniel Dennett and others subscribe to that says everything is just causal and all we deal with is causal connections. This part over here is simply the subconscious processing. This part here is just the conscious processing and one leads to experience and the other doesn't. But both lead to behavior. The problem with those two theories is one makes you believe in the supernatural, the other makes you believe that cause and effect alone can create experience and that's kind of strange. It feels to me like there's something more than cause and effect going on when I see a red strawberry. I mean it just feels that way. So is there some sort of a third option or a middle road we can take? And one possible middle road is called, well here's why we need a middle road. Physical theories are ultimately specified in terms of structure and dynamics. They're cast in terms of basic physical structures, you know like a molecule and it's position, it's rotation, it's position in Hilbert space if I'm in quantum mechanics or phase space if I'm in more classical mechanics. And there's everything that describes the object, that's its structure and its dynamics is the function, the matrix if you're in quantum mechanics that you multiply by the vector to get the next vector and there's this how things evolve through time, right? So I have structure, my vector, and then I have the evolution of the vector, a function that operates on the vector, structure and dynamics. And principle specifying how the structure change over time, that's our dynamics. So if I were to do this mathematically, I have a state at a certain time, I have, and that's the structure, and then I have the function that operates on that state, that's the dynamics that gives me the next state or the state at the next time period, structure, dynamics. Structure and dynamics at low level can combine in all sorts of interesting ways to explain the structure and function or dynamics of high level systems, but still structure and function only ever adds up to more structure and function. So in other words, this is the pressure times the volume is a constant, this is structure and dynamics at a high level, and it's this can produce that. And it was the structure and dynamics of every molecule add up to more structure and dynamics. The structure and dynamics at a low level of all the molecules interacting in a gas, together adds up to more structure and dynamics, Boyle's law, right? We call that reductionism. I can reduce Boyle's law to a simpler, more fundamental set of structure and dynamics. And the question is can qualia, qualia is just a fancy name for subjective experience, can my experience of red be explained reductionist in a reductionist manner by the fundamental forces of nature, cause and effect? In most domains, this structure dynamics is quite enough as we have seen a structure and function are all that needs to be explained. Now, this is David Chalmers claims. He claims that when it comes to consciousness, something other than structure and function needs to be accounted for. That's actually the question. Is there something more that needs to be accounted for? To get to that something more that he claims has to be there, and explanation needs a further ingredient we're forced to the conclusion that the further question will arise for any account of physical processing. Why is there structure and function accompanied by conscious experience? To answer this question, we need to supplement our story about structure and function with something else. And in doing so, we move beyond truly reductionist explanation. So he says we need something more than a reductionist explanation to explain consciousness. That's his claim. Whatever account for, and I told you it's intuitive, right? That's how I feel. It feels like there's something more. Whatever account for processing we give, the vital step, the step where we move from facts about structure and function to facts about experience will always be an extra step, requiring something substantial, some substantial principle to bridge the gap. To justify this step, we need a new component to our theories. So what extra element, let's skip to this one. What extra element does he propose? And hopefully these slides will be online. You can read the rest of his comments later, but this is what he proposes as an extra step. We'll take experience itself to be as a fundamental feature of the world, alongside mass, charge, space, time. If we take experience as fundamental, then we can go about the business of constructing a theory of experience. Where there is a fundamental property, there are fundamental laws. A non-reductive theory of experience will add new principles to the fundamental feature to the furniture of the basic laws of nature. These basic principles will ultimately carry the explanatory burden in a theory of consciousness. Just as we explained familiar high-level phenomena involving mass in terms of more basic principles involving mass and other entities, we might explain familiar phenomena involving experience in terms of more basic principles involving experience in their entities. In particular, an un-reductive theory of experience will specify basic principles, telling us how the experience depends on physical features of the world. These psychophysical principles will not interfere with physical laws, as it seems that physical laws are already form a closed system. Now, by the way, it's unfortunate to me that he explains this in terms of English instead of math, right? It's really hard to figure out exactly what he's talking about. But we're gonna read what he says, and then we're gonna try to see if we understand what he means by formalizing it. So let's see if we can make sense of all these words in a minute. Rather, he says there will be a supplement to the physical theory. A physical theory gives a theory of physical processes and the psychophysical theory tells us how those processes give rise to experience. We know that experience depends on physical processes, but we also know that the dependence cannot be derived from physical laws alone. The new basic principles postulated by a non-reductive theory give us the extra ingredient that we need to build an explanatory bridge. This position qualifies as a variety of dualism as it postulates some basic principles over and above those invoked by physics, but it's an innocent version because it's compatible with laws of nature and so it's natural. So here's the idea. It's not reductive, but instead, he postulates a new function, right? A new function of the state leads to experience. And so it's unfortunate he didn't explain this in terms of math, but I think this is what he says. A new function of experience, a new function of the state gives us experience. It's like this, states evolve, but each state leads to experience. So you could think of our experience like this. Perception, you see the red strawberry, that changes some source in your brain, whether that's some matter or some processing unit, that leads to experience and behavior. It leads to behavior through causal laws, but it leads to experience through these new laws he's proposing this new function. The problem is this is epiphenomenal. What epiphenomenal means is the experience doesn't matter. It doesn't change your behavior. It doesn't matter in terms of behavior is the problem. And so what does that mean? Why does that matter? Well, it matters because what we claim, what are our experiences? Our experiences really are what we claim we experience, what we believe we experience and what we remember having experienced. But we know several things. My claim of experience involves moving molecules in the air, does it not? What I believe I experience involves and that we can actually do brain scans and determine what you believe from the brain scan. So it involves moving neurons in my brain. And what I remember, same thing, involves moving neurons in the brain. So if experience is as David Chalmers claims, the problem is it doesn't lead to claims, it doesn't lead to beliefs and it doesn't lead to memories. And what that means is the experience I claim to have, the experience I believe I have and the experience I remember having is not the experience that David Chalmers is describing. So although I can't prove that his extra function doesn't exist, if it does, it's not the experience I want to explain. And therefore, property dualism, as expressed by Chalmers, whether we have a different version or not, property dualism as expressed by Chalmers may exist, but I don't care, right? In other words, I may have this thing that if I hurt my hip, hurt my hip, that's accompanied by intense epiphenomenal pleasure. But I'm still going to say ow, I'm still gonna believe it hurts and I'm still gonna remember that it hurts. And so that epiphenomenal experience, if it exists, is unimportant and I don't care about it. So all this really means is that I can throw this one out, but it doesn't mean that I've solved the problem. And of course we care, because all sorts of things in computer science depend on answering this question, right? I care about the experience of conscious creatures, do I not? Which means that's where my morality comes from, which means if I wanna make decisions about how I treat animals, how I treat an artificial intelligence, whether I can be uploaded, as has just been claimed, whether that upload will have the same experience as me, depends on answering this question correctly. And so I can at least throw out one of them, we still have a long way to go to answer it. But it's important that we get this right. And so it's important that we can at least throw out one of these answers and explanations. And I hope to see all of you who voted on Canonizer will now abandon the property dualism camp, because it's clearly incorrect. Thank you. So if I understand it right, you throw away the possibility in the middle and you leave open only the one on the left and the one on the right. Which one do you prefer? So I've thrown out one, there's two left is what you're saying. By the way, these two are examples, there's a lot left. Yeah, there's a lot more than three. There's a lot more than three, there's thousands of these. And so I gave two examples. I'm a materialist. Yeah, so I prefer the one on the right. And believe it or not, that has nothing to do with whether I believe in Mormon concepts of the spirit, because as we've said, Joseph claims that there is no immaterial matter. There are no supernatural laws. And so the one on the right can be the right one, whether or not you believe in a spirit. The one on the left is intended to be different because it proposes supernatural laws. And I don't believe in supernatural laws. So I happen to believe in the one on the right, but I think that that's compatible with a lot of variants of spiritualism, et cetera.


It's because You have evolved to a higher Better version of you butterfly if you like that's gone through the caterpillar chrysalis Butterfly stage and you're at that stage of the next version of you where you were trying to get to months years ago But you are still attached to involved with Caterpillar people and Now you know Something that they don't now you are someone that they can't relate to and They keep dragging you back to that Groundedness that that earth bound life that you had as a caterpillar if you like And you are not factoring in that that's no longer your tribe no longer your people You have to find butterfly people who are fluent in butterfly language To continue to flourish and keep flying in this new version of you stop hanging around With caterpillars you're a butterfly you're born to fly go