In 2020, Shamar Moore treated himself to a residential upgrade buying an ultra modern villa in Sherman Oaks, Los Angeles. It cost the actor $5.8 million and the home spans 9,000 square feet with features like top of the line security, a poolside pavilion and more. Prior to this, Shamar was living in a Mediterranean style mansion nearby in Encino which he sold at a loss last year as well. Today we'll take a look at where he calls home. In these videos, we don't reveal any addresses and even though I've done a house tour of my own place, please do not show up at any private residences because it's not safe for anyone. Shamar Moore is an actor and former fashion model best known for his starring roles on series like CBS's Criminal Minds, SWAT and The Young and the Restless. At the time of this recording, the fan favourite has been paid well throughout his acting career so far amassing an estimated net worth of $22 million or more. No wonder that Shamar could handle the slight loss when he sold his former Encino villa and still cash in on a newer mansion that's more than double the size.  You haven't already, be sure to subscribe and ring that bell for notifications because we post brand new videos daily. As always you can follow me over on Instagram to chat and now let's get into this video. Just last year Shamar treated himself to a brand new mansion located in the suburban Sherman Oaks neighborhood of LA and dropped $5.8 million on it. Sherman Oaks is definitely an area gaining more popularity with celebrities these days and Shamar's new pad is super private as well and hidden behind electronic gates on a posh tree line street. The ultra modern villa was newly built and set up with a state of the art home automation system as well as fancy security features. The lot spans over half an acre of land while inside the mansion covers over 9,000 square feet of space made up of concrete, wood and smoked glass. Shamar's estate boasts seven bedrooms, seven full baths and two half baths while there's a bonus poolside pavilion with two bedrooms as well. Walking in the front door there's a huge open space with soaring ceilings and a grand living area in the distance. The foyer boasts hardwood floors, fresh white walls and a grand staircase with glass railings. To one side there's also a small office perfect for getting some work done and a stunning glass walls courtyard fitted with walls of sliders for easy access. I love a cute courtyard. Under the stairs there's a piano on display and beside it you'll find a professional bar with glass enclosed wine cabinet. Also nearby is the formal dining room with space to entertain and finally the grand living room. At the time of purchase the living room was furnished with a white sectional and mounted TV on a black quartz accent wall with built-in modern fireplace and the room also flows out to the yard via Florida ceiling glass doors. The open concept space also attaches the modern kitchen which is full of clean lines and fancy appliances. Shamar can cook up a storm here as the colossal space has not one but two large islands one topped with wood and one with white marble. The wooden one also has snack bar style seating and beside it you'll find a fridge that's built for a giant. The main level is complete with a whole movie theater that boasts fabric upholstered walls and a snack counter with beverage fridge. Should Shamar need to watch himself on the big screen this is the perfect space to do so. His mansion offers a handful of bedrooms and that includes two master suite. One is on the main level and opens right to the yard also with a fireplace. Giant walk-in closet and fancy en suite that leads out to a secret interior courtyard. If you want to relax in private the courtyard even has a fire pit in the center. Upstairs on the same floor as the guest suites Shamar has another master retreat option and this one boasts doors out to a party-sized terrace as well as a spa style master bath decked out in gray quartz. Which one of the master suites would you choose? They're both impressive but I gotta say I'm sold on the main floor one because I love that secret courtyard and the built-ins in the walk-in closet. Upstairs there's also a bonus family room with wet bar that opens up to the terrace. Outside the grounds of Shamar's home boasts plenty of amenities including a large dining and lounging patio which is covered offering an outdoor fireplace, kitchen and a barbecue and bar. There's more than one fire pit back here as well as a basketball court, putting green and of course the pool. Shamar can take a dip in his chic infinity edge pool and spa that's decked out in block tiles or visit the pool house that seems to have a games room and even a spa. Recently Shamar showed off his mansion to People Magazine and explained how he showed his mother the home right before her passing. He wanted to outfit the place with things that kept her memory alive as well explaining. My house is beautiful but it's empty without her. There's always going to be that void but I'm doing my best to make it me to make it my mother's son's home. And it looks like he's done that. We can see that since moving in Shamar transformed the nearly all-white mansion to a place full of personal artwork and plenty of color. He repainted ceilings and walls to add warmth including a dark red accent wall in the entryway and touches like brown leather seats at the main bar. Shamar also added plenty of photos with his mother as well as cards and even carpeted a room in turquoise which was her favorite color. In summer 2020 Shamar let go of his previous home for $2.4 million which was at a loss considering he purchased it way back in 2007 for $2.5 million. His former longtime home was located in Encino, Los Angeles and while it was built in 1963 it had been extensively updated during the time Shamar lived here. The yellow spanner style abode sat on a corner lot boasting over half an acre of land and inside featured dark wood floors high ceilings and a new kitchen. Shamar's former home was in an upskill Encino enclave and inside spent over 3,600 square feet with 4 or 5 bedrooms and 4.5 baths. The welcoming front entrance had its own custom built waterfall and a fancy courtyard which then led to the foyer. The dramatic two-story entryway opened up to the living room and offered a wrought iron railed staircase to the upper level. The living room also had sparkling dark wood floors and a stone fireplace as the nearby formal dining room had French doors out to the terrace. A wide arch leads to the gourmet kitchen that Shamar decked out with new high-end designer appliances a center island and six burner stoves. Then there's also an airy family room which was technically a fifth bedroom boasting wood-beamed double height ceilings and more doors to outside. The guest bedrooms joined Shamar's former master retreat on the upper level which was super impressive made up of a massive bedroom with a fireplace a separate home office two balconies and a custom fit walk-in closet. If that's not enough there was also a stone-tiled ensuite bath with jetted tub. The inside of Shamar's former abode was gorgeous and so was the outside. The L-shaped home had two wings which helped form the exterior landscape and backyard setup which was designed for outdoor living and entertaining. High walls made the grounds of the home super private and secure and there was a stone terrace, fire pit, freestanding sauna and of course, a pebble-tech pool and spa. Shamar also completed the resort-style backyard by adding a full-sound and security system. Shamar first listed his Encino home months prior for over $2.5 million so he didn't lose any money on it but then he had to cut the price by $100k around April 2020. Now that we've taken a look at where Shamar Mork calls home I think that wraps it up for this house tour. Not only did we see the ultra-modern mega mansion he moved into last year for $5.8 million but we also checked out his long-time home in Encino he sold around the same time. It's hard to believe his former Encino home was only a fraction of the size of his new home. They both seemed so impressive and grand in my opinion. Out of the two properties which could you see yourself living in? Honestly his new home is stunning but was a bit too modern for me when he moved in. I much prefer the new color scheme Shamar added to make the place cozier and out of all the features in his current mansion which were your must haves. I don't know if two master suites are necessary but it couldn't hurt.  I've also been reading all your comments and I'm gonna shout some of you guys out. This was from our recent George Michael house tour. Velda Sorrentino wrote RIP George Michael loved his music and loved that Santa Barbara home. I loved that house too and I found that had some similarities with this Sydney home and they were both awesome. And on our Alicia Keys and Swizz Beats house tour Mother Knows Said. Inspiring couple, talented humans, exquisite taste, gorgeous home, much love. I totally agree. That Phoenix house was my favorite. I love reading your comments so keep them coming and don't forget to tell me your thoughts on Shamar's homes down in the comments. Thanks for watching. Go ahead and follow me on Instagram to chat and I'll catch you all in the next video. Bye.


Hi there, my friend and friends, and thanks for taking the time to watch this video. Now, I'm assuming you clicked on this video for a pretty specific reason, so I'm hoping watching this helps you realize why you're struggling with CSS, even if you're going through tutorials, watching videos, or going through full courses. Despite all of that, you're still feeling like you're not improving and you're still struggling with CSS, so in this video, we're going to go over three of the reasons why that probably is. We're going to be going deeper into each one of them, but the very first thing is you probably don't have a good enough understanding of the fundamentals. You learn the syntax early on, and it's color blue, background red, whatever, and it's super, it's easy, it's declarative, and then you just took the language for granted and didn't really take the time to learn how it's actually working and really learn the fundamentals and implication that those fundamentals have. The second thing is you're not looking big picture enough. When that happens, you actually end up writing a lot more code than you actually need to be writing. It makes maintenance a lot harder in the long run because there's potentially different layers of things that you don't actually need to be there and there's implications of changing one thing that impacts another that shouldn't be impacted and it just creates a little bit of a mess. And so the first thing we're going to take a look at here is this project, which is by an anonymous submitter, but it's the final project of my free conquering responsive layouts course. And on first glance, there's little differences and little changes I may make to this just because I know the typography doesn't really match the layout, but everything's all right. And if we open up our DevTools and put it in responsive mode, we'll see that it's responsive. We got our hamburger menu that comes in. Everything's, it's working well. We're not running into overflows. The break points are working. We're getting the columns where we want. So like for someone who's, I'm guessing relatively early in their CSS journey, it's looking pretty good, but what happens is when we start looking into the code a little bit, it's where I start seeing some things that are going, oh, this could have been done in a lot easier and a lower maintenance type of way. And that's when we start relying on the real fundamentals of inheritance in the cascade. And especially inheritance, it's one of these things that people seem not to like get into very much. I don't know how to, that's a bad way to say it, but we don't use it. It's not taken advantage of the way it should be. And to highlight this, if we look in their code, you know, early on, it doesn't even look too bad. We have some stuff set on our body that we don't really need to width 100% and the box sizing shouldn't be there. But if you're going to do box sizing, it should be on star selector because this is not an inherited property. So right away that does also sort of go, okay, there's, there's probably some issues here because maybe there's a misunderstanding of what is and what isn't inherited. And just as a very quick rule, if it's typography related, probably is. So things like your font family, your font size, your textile line, all of those things, you know, you set it on your body and then everything that's in the body will get them. And if it's not related to typography for the most part, or maybe completely, it is, it's not inherited your margins, your paddings, your widths, your box sizings, things like that. But if we come further down here where I start seeing this really come in as potentially a bit of an issue is when I started seeing things like this, and this is another bit of a red flag, multiple H ones, especially lower down on the page since we're in the middle section, it makes me think that there's multiple H ones throughout the site. So you should only have one H one per page just as a general rule and then everything else would be H twos and so forth. If you want a video on how the heading levels work, I have a link to that in the description that goes into a lot more detail, but we're focused on CSS for now. So here I see the middle section left, central and right, all getting a text-to-line center. And then I see here we have these all getting a text-to-line center. And then down here we have the padding on them, but especially like these text-to-line centers, and this has the text-to-line center. So then I want to look at it and go, okay, well these are text-to-line center. That makes sense. But we didn't really need to redeclare it for everything here, because here I have my middle section left part, and then I have the H one in there, and I have my paragraph there. So if I wanted to, in here, there's the text-to-line center. So we can turn that one off, and then I can go on the H one, and I can turn that one off. There it is. And I'm just gonna say like I'm doing this as a really simple example. Let's just shrink that down maybe like that. But one thing I'll say was good here is they combine the selectors together, because I've seen this with three separate selectors. Like you're doing it three different times here. We're doing it three times, but with a single selector. So it's a little bit better. But I could have just come on to the middle section up here and done a text-align-center right there. And because it's inherited, everything within that section just becomes text-align-center. And in this case, we don't have to worry about media queries or anything else, just because we want it to stay centered the whole time, it gets a little bit more complicated. If you're changing things within media queries, but even then, maybe you're only re-defining it for the middle section. So it's a lot easier if it's defined in one place, rather than two or three or four different places. And you might even be able to use this where you're setting text-align-center, because most things are, maybe there's one thing in there that isn't, and then you can change the text-align on that one specific thing to change it from where you were. But that's really one of those things that not relying on inheritance for your typography stuff, it creates so much more code than you'd actually have to write. And it does make for a lot more maintenance, because when you're needing to make changes, you're often changing the same thing over and over in multiple different spots when you could be changing it a lot less. And we could keep diving into that project, but there's another one here that sort of goes into the next stage of not looking at a bigger picture. And I think there's a relationship there, but it's once you understand inheritance, then we wanna start looking at things bigger picture. So let's jump over to this one. This is by Adam Elitzer. And here, when you first look at the site, it's nice, it's clean, it looks great. So very nice on that, it's responsive. But when we open things up, and I started looking at it more, and at first I was like, oh, he's did a pretty good job. But then when he got to these cards, and this is a little similar to what we saw, but in a bit of a bigger picture type of way, where if we come in, we take a look here at what we have set up there. And this is what, I saw it said testimonial card. And this is like a really common thing. You'll have like your testimonials, and then you have your title, you have your testimonial grid, then we have our card, and we have each testimonial card in there. And this is super common to see. And at first glance, that's completely fine. But then when I saw testimonial card, and then we see this section down here, which is my class rates, and I was like, oh, they look the same. What did he call them there? And down here, they're just rate. And what's really interesting is if we look at the, if we look at, like I'm on my rate, and you look at everything, the classes and everything that are on there, if I come up to my testimonial card and I click on it, oh, not much changed. One thing did. We have a new font family and color declaration. That's it. And do we even need those? I'm not even sure if we need that because everything else is literally identical. And this is where bigger picture comes into play. Where, you know, if we're understanding inheritance, we're taking advantage of that as much as we can. When I'm doing this, I don't want to look at everything in isolation. And this is beginners often do this. They're going to go, okay, I created this section. Now I'm going to create this section and then I'm going to create this section. And it's a little bit like here, but like a little bit more zoomed out. Like on this one, we had like my left part, right, left part, central part, right part. That's like really not big picture because they're all identical. So we could have just done, you know, whatever, a single class for all of them, similar to how Adam did here, where it's a single class for all of them. We have our testimonial card. So it's not so zoomed in and then recreating the same thing over and over, but right underneath it, it's basically the exact same thing here and here. We have a button in this one. We don't have a button in that, I could add a button to this and it would look the same. And so, you know, we don't need to rewrite the CSS for that.  And we can just leave it like that, right? Have all of the same CSS for both of them and they'd probably work exactly the same. We saw that and even I'm curious here if we go back into that, we did see the one difference here was there was a few extra font family declarations. But if I turn, oh, the fonts do change. Oh, look at that. Is it a different font up there? I'm not even sure. There might be something else and we can see that's coming in there. So there's a few different things but I would even say that if we made these the same way or obviously there's something that's changing the color of these over to white. But if we took the same approach and we plan this from the beginning, I'm gonna have a card that's gonna have a title that could be blue and then with a paragraph that's white and this is a subtitle, then I could set these up to work in exactly the same way and write a lot less code. I have my card, you put a card title on it, it changes it to the right font size, the right font weight, the right color. My paragraph that's in there is there. If I happen to have a subtitle, I can have a class for that subtitle that's going to work. If I don't include it, I don't have a subtitle. If I happen to include a button, the button works. If I don't have a button, everything is fine. And so really like don't look at everything section by section as if they're in isolation. All of these things exist there and this is page to page to page two. Right now we're looking at a single page but you see this too where it's across multiple pages. You have similar elements or so call them components, right? Cause they're this sort of standalone thing that just works and you can plug it into different places and the more that we do that, the better and it just means less code for us. If ever we need to update it, it's one update instead of maybe three or four updates along the way cause we need to switch all the variations that are all like actually exactly the same. And so yeah, just try and big picture things as much as possible. Look for similarities in typography and colors and setups and border radiuses and all of these different things. And the last thing that I mentioned, we're gonna look at two examples of this are band-aid solutions. We're gonna stick with Adam's project here to begin with and we're gonna look at this section here which on first glance, you know, it looks all right. Let me just undock my dev tools. And we have this like responsive section here that's working, but then when I dug into how this was created, I got a little bit confused. And so if we look at the main class that's in here which is looking at like this area right there it's highlighting it on our page. When I was looking at how this was created, I noticed some weird things going on. But when I saw the max height on there, I sort of wondered about what's happening here at the smaller screen sizes. And then when I looked at it, it's like, oh, everything's overflowing, right? Like we have stuff overflowing at the top and the bottom which is kind of cool, I guess. And it happens to work here but it seems to have been one of these band-aid solutions type of things where they were trying stuff and it wasn't working and they just sort of kept layering stuff on top. Now this is partially happening because we have a max height. If I turn off my max height, you can see it's all jumping down because now all the content is within that height which maybe is part of what he wanted to prevent. He didn't want it like he wanted to get rid, whoops, this one, wanted to get rid of that space. We can see he tried things with clamp here on the height as well. But maybe he was just trying to make sure it stayed up high. And along with the flex here, if we didn't have the flex on that we wouldn't have it overflowing. We turn off the flex and that's just because it was a line center so it was actually moving things back up within that space, which is interesting. I don't think I'd realized that would actually happen. And while this is sort of, you know, it's working here at one point it does actually create a bit of a problem because we go small enough. Like now it was sort of working at doing what it wanted to do. And I think, no, I have every, did I turn off something on the hero there actually? Whoops, the flex there. So it does like keep things out and to me that's like really like we're fighting to make that work, right? Because without that it was coming down too low. And often for me like the fix for something like that instead of like layering these things on top and then fighting with clamps and then having to throw a display flex into center something within the area it's overflowing just seems like a lot of work to try and solve something. And like, so I just wouldn't put a max height on that. And that way this whole area just is its own little self-contained area and this next section is going to come after it. And maybe the margin here is too big. And so like when I see this with this clamp coming onto here to try and like control the height of everything in general, let height just do its thing. And if the height isn't doing its thing like maybe there's something you can do but like especially max heights they're really dangerous because they run into those situations where stuff will start overflowing because at one point we run out of room, right? And especially height is, we have height and width and the screen size always changes this way. So if our content is getting less spaced this way just it needs to maintain the same area. So the ratio needs to stay the same so it's going to gain in height. And as soon as we put a max height on there it's going to say, well at one point it's gonna break that ratio and it's gonna cause overflows. So there are times when you need it but in general we're keeping things simple don't use the max height. If you need to a min height can be okay. But here we could just do something and we're playing with calc and other stuff here so we could just come in here and do a clamp. So a clamp and we'd have zero for the left and the right and my margin top and bottom could be like a two ram comma 10 viewport height comma five ram. And now as this adjusts you can see that space on the top is changing and maybe that's, you know we can play around with these numbers and reduce them and get that to work. And it's a little bit of a playing around game but at least then you sort of get something that adapts a bit to the screen. You're just playing with the margin so you're playing with the distance between things and you're letting that area maintain that whatever space it needs and then it's just going to adapt to the space it needs and then you're not trying to deal with like how is it overflowing controlling things it could get it to work but then you'd change the content a bit if this paragraph here got longer in that other setup we could even try that if we came back to here and went back to how we had display flex and a max height on there and you know we broke something here we had the five ram that was there and oh five ram zero we had that five ram zero that was there and now we're back to where we'd started I guess I could have just refreshed the page but we got back to where I started but let's say this text here actually ended up being longer and so in the dev tools we can do that really fast here you just get into here and you know the client updates the text that you need to have in there and now we're running into a similar problem I guess it's not too bad eventually though you can see it's starting to overflow in there so and it's hitting the navigation on the top so it worked for that one specific situation but then it breaks now again because the content got updated and then you're trying to fix that and you're gonna probably come up with another band-aid on top of the one that you already had and it just gets very frustrating go simple, back things up try and find the simplest solution always and if you feel like you're trying heights and then this other height with the weird clamp with the viewport units and all these other things layering on top of each other you might just go okay let's delete all that start over again and as soon as you delete it and you just go back to the default maybe it's what you needed in the first place or maybe you realize that you just need some small tweak and it's gonna be fine and now one last example we're gonna look at is this one by Chow Cabral which is again it looks pretty well set up but if we come back into here and take a look to me this is when you just get a little bit too clever and we're just gonna move the dev tools off for a second and let's say we come in here and I wanna add a movie title so I like Star Wars and it's a cool little app where you can search for movies and okay there's a movie that I like we get the information on it and everything here but this is in my opinion where like when you get a little bit too clever with viewport units and to me viewport units are a band-aid solution so I'm including it in here I could probably do a whole tutorial on viewport units but we get into these situations where we feel like it's really good because it's this like super fluid thing everything is just working no matter what the screen size is because everything in here is based with viewport units if we come and take a look at how these things are all set up we start seeing things like the gap is a viewport unit the height is a viewport unit gap there again the width is a viewport unit everything the border radius is everything in this and I think I'm just looking at one part of it but like everything in this entire project is using viewport units and viewport units have their issues and they really should be a last resort if you're going to use them again I could do a whole video on issues with them but just to me this is a band-aid solution to try and make something responsive so I'm including it in here as part of it because here it sort of works well on this screen size but like if we go to this way and I'm not at like a ridiculous aspect ratio now but I can't even see most of the content and it just feels really awkward like this is where two columns would probably be better and so like trying to get things to work perfectly it's hard to do and then maybe the person's on a laptop that has like a little bit of a smaller screen actually the font sizes don't look too bad but let's say they want to make them bigger I'm zooming in now and nothing's happening and I'm zooming out now and nothing is happening and that's because viewport units aren't responsive to zoom in and out because they're based just on the actual viewport so let's just say I add this in and so like whenever we come up with these layouts that are completely done with viewport units just really like think about it for a second and is there a better approach because for font sizes they're problematic and a lot of the time at different screen sizes like if you start going wider and wider here I'm on an ultra wide if I really wanted to I could make this thing like super big and I'd probably just have this image and nothing else on my screen at the beginning so it feels like this magical thing that you can like push around and play around within all of that but to me it really is a band-aid solution to make something responsive without having to worry about it it's very magic numbery you plug the things in you feel like it works you have this nice cool fluid layout but it's not actually the best solution and it could be problematic especially with accessibility when I can't zoom in and out on the layout at all and so the biggest piece of advice that I can give you is to go back over the fundamentals go look at those early tutorials you did or find other ones that are really talking about the simple things and even if you feel like you're beyond that now because going back over the fundamentals when you already have an understanding of something can make such the world of difference to how you're doing things and that's gonna impact the next step and the next step because when you're making mistakes with things like inheritance or the cascade you're not taking advantage of those you're not taking advantage of how CSS works you're giving yourself more work and then that runs into things where you're making things less maintainable and that runs into band-aid solutions where you could be doing things in a much better and simpler way and the other thing with CSS is so much of it is about mindset and approaching it in the right way because we do have these responsive layouts and not these static things that we're just trying to build for and that really means that you have to think about things in a little bit of a different way and approach things in a different way so we're not just throwing viewport units in there and hoping for the best even though it's not an ideal layout whatever we throw in every situation and so if you do want something where I dive into that as I mentioned off the top I do have the free course conquering responsive layouts it is about learning how to make things responsive but a lot of it is about the concepts I've covered in here and leaning into the browser and taking advantage of the browser and how the browser wants to work and a lot of it is also about the right mindset and approaching things with the right mindset which just so happens to help us make things responsive in the simplest way possible so if you're interested in that the link to it is in the description below and with that I would like to thank my enablers of awesome Jan, Johnny, Michael, Patrick, Simon and Tim as well as all my other patrons for their monthly support and of course until next time don't forget to make your corner the internet just a little bit more awesome.


Baseball, baseball, baseball. If you remember Midget, this past weekend, you had a chance to see plenty of it. The Coca-Cola Classic flooded the diamonds in four-age divisions all the way from 11-year-old to 14. Let's get to those highlights. There are plenty of them, and the kids wearing blue and red. Let's start with 11-U, Fish Ganski. Drives the ball to right here. That'll score, run Northern Heat on the board first. Later in the inning, Gavin Kappa at the dish. Ball gets to the backstop. Another run scores to extend their lead then braiding down, he'll take his turn. Liner to the grass, right center. Two RBI single puts Bemidji up five. And now Schaefer adds some insurance later on. Ball gets past the first baseman here. Another run would cross the plate. They would end up winning this one 11-7. Let's bump up to the 12-U squad, playing West Fargo. Doesn't take long for Wills Zelman for the shot of the day. This one over the fence and center, it's out of here, they take the early lead and later on, Ben Karate, he'll go back up the middle. That's good for an RBI single and now a two-nothing lead. And let's go to the fourth, Ty Lundin. Base hit, this'll score another. Just like that, Northern Heat's lead is four. Couple batters later, Ethan Coffin. He'll join the hip parade, just tattoos it to the fence. RBI double Northern Heat would win the title at 12-U. Let's finally go to 13-U in their team. First inning, Avery LaZelle gives it a ride to deep left. That'll score one for the RBI double. The next batter, he's gonna come on home. Ball gets past the catcher, LaZelle. Trot on home from third. Lead now is two. This team just dangerous on the base pass. Double steal called here. No chance to get Seth Lindren sprinting home from third. They would fall on the championship game though to Graham Forks, but what a great weekend of baseball. If you've enjoyed this segment of Lakeland News, please consider making a tax deductible contribution to Lakeland Public Television.


I'm just going to, this is a science, here's my toolkit, sorry about that, and I'm just going to explain this thing called the Ominous Southern Oscillation. So, what climate change is going on, the expression of climate change will still be delivered through natural variability. This is the dominant mode of natural variability in Australia, and it's the one that we should still be looking out for. So we can predict this thing about six to nine months in advance. It's what our operations in terms of climate are centered around. It gives you a heads up for that disaster season, which is which fire and cyclone season in Australia. So it's El Niño and La Niño, which most people have heard of. What does that actually mean? I'm going to ditch this thing, use the spacebar if that's okay. So normally what is El Niño and La Niño, what does it mean for Australia? It's variability that's driven off the tropical Pacific. So normally you can imagine the earth sits there, the sun is shining on the tropical Pacific, it's making it very warm, the surface of the water over the tropical Pacific, and the trade winds blow from east to west. So what they tend to do is they pile that warm water up in what's called the western Pacific warm pool over the Australian region. And that's where the rainfall is, so the rainfall follows that warm water. So normally you're getting a situation where it's drier over the other side of the Pacific and it's very wet over the Indonesian and New Guinea region. So that's like a neutral phase, that's what it normally looks like. During the La Niño what happens is those trade winds blow even stronger and they pile more of the warm water up in the Australian region. So that pool of warm water now sits well over the northern coast of the Australian continent. And it means an increased chance of rainfall over the eastern half of the continent and that includes down to Victoria. So this is still the dominant mode of bringing floods to Victoria essentially. What's an El Niño? An El Niño is a reversal of the trade winds, so I won't go into why these things happen. They're just part of the dynamics of the climate system. But what happens is the trade winds reverse and you actually pushing that warm water over the eastern Pacific and the rainfall follows it. So it's now raining in the eastern Pacific, over Chile and South America and you tend to have droughts or reduced chance of rainfall over eastern Australia. So often those large stretches of heat waves and dry conditions come during El Niño events themselves. So this is that really big roundabout of swimming in the climate system that affects Australia. There is a cohort to this in the Indian Ocean and the phase of these two things is really important for Victoria. So normally in the Indian Ocean the trade winds blow the other way. They're piling that warm water up into the Indonesian region again right throughout that southeast Asian area. A negative phase of the IPO is the intensification of that pattern. So you're having more warm water to the north of Australia. It brings this rainfall down in this northwest cloud band kind of pattern and you can see that green zone there is the chance of increased rainfall. This is something that you quite commonly see just as a natural expression of the weather. So it's an intensification of that cycle. And the positive phase is the reversal of that. So reduced chances of rainfall. So why I'm showing this is because for Victoria what happens is really when you get these two things reinforcing each other is when you're almost guaranteed of extreme climate conditions in Australia. So when you have a negative phase, the Indonesian dipole and the La Niña you're almost guaranteed of heavy rainfall to that eastern-southeastern part of the continent. So just before I move on this is what I'm talking about. So the blue here is where you get highest on record rainfall. So you're drawing your eye down to the southeast. These are the really big La Niña events. So you can see almost the whole continent is blue here. So very much above average to record rainfall. This stuns climatologists from overseas. Mostly continents have a mix of dry and wet conditions. But these are the sorts of events we're talking about. Going into the most recent period where we had a twin La Niña event and really extensive flooding through Victoria. And flooding in Victoria once it gets there lasts for weeks, if not months. So that's natural variability. That's one element of climate risk. I'm here today to talk about a new climate risk introduced by changing atmospheric chemistry itself. So you can hear about globulinmy temperature and a range of other things when they talk about the climate system. This is the one graph that really is salient to climate scientists and to the downstream impacts of climate change. It's carbon dioxide in the atmosphere over the last billion years or so. This natural variability in carbon dioxide is driven by the ice age cycles. So the peaks here are the interglacial warm period, which is where we were when human civilization came along and the troughs there are what the collice age is basically. So what's happened in the last 100 years is you can see the maximum CO2 content in the climate system during this era known as the Pleistocene where we were known for the ice ages and interglacial warm periods was about 280 parts per million. That's now shot up to around 400 parts per million. Why is that important? If you go back before the Pleistocene there's an error called the Pliocene. That's the last time CO2 levels were about 400 parts per million due to naturally occurring changes in the climate system. It was about two or three degrees warmer. Sea levels were about 20 metres higher at equilibrium. So what happens if we stop emissions tomorrow? Over the next thousand or 2,000 years we'll slowly warm up to that mid-Pliocene level so you have a warmer planet and a higher sea level. So when you talk about mitigation we're basically talking about putting a break on further emissions because we want to actually slow the pace of climate change. These sorts of spikes in atmospheric chemistry have only occurred in the geological record in association with massive planetary outgassing when you have really large volcanic activity or asteroid strikes. They're almost all of them are associated with mass extinction. So that's why most climate scientists are actually faced when they talk about this plot. It's not a good mind at least. So what does that mean? What we've had is a 40% increase in greenhouse gases. This is a plot of global mean temperature. That's land and ocean temperature. You can see this large trend so all of the warm years have occurred in the last decade or two. Significant warming from the middle of last century. In terms of that important part of the climate system, the oceans and how important it is for Australia here's a plot of ocean temperatures as we estimated them about the middle of the 19th century compared to today. So it's a massively different climate system and this means a very different region for weather already over Australian globe. So I'm just going to focus now on Australia and Victoria itself. Australian mean temperatures increased as well so broadly in line with the globe. You can see there's more variability here and that's basically because we're looking at a smaller part of the globe. So that's mean temperatures. They've warmed up by about 0.9 if a degree. So almost a degree since good measurements are available which is about from 1900 to 1910 onwards. So it doesn't sound like much about degree of warming. It changes by more than that from night to day and from one season to another. Why we're concerned about that degree of warming. It basically pushes the extremes even further and it means that the frequency of weather is quite different. So if we look over the last two years these are our warmest periods on record for Australia. We had the warmest year on record in 2013 and the 24 months were easily the warmest on record as well. If we go further north into Queensland for example where they've been experiencing quite bad drought. The rainfall deficiencies they've experienced haven't been historically the worst on record. They're probably not as bad as they were in 2002-2003 but they've had more drought declarations than any other time since about 1960 when they start collecting those statistics. What are one of the reasons there's probably socio-economic reasons for that. The other one is that that drying and that drought occurred during record temperatures over a 24 month period. So that just means that you're basically sucking the moisture out of the soil and out of the vegetation as well. So that's one impact of a change in mean temperature. The other and this is as science is the talk gets. These are bell curves of temperature so temperature is normally distributed near anything else. And this is a plot of what happens to the extremes. So what we've got there is bell curves from 1951-1980 in blue 1981-2000 in grey and 2001-2010 orange. So these bell curves are moving to the right. That means it's warming up. So the average climate is warmed by about a degree. It's out at the toes that we're interested so these are two standard deviations which means extreme monthly temperatures. And so the main thing I want from this plot is really these 2, 7 and 10%. So extreme weather that occurred about 2% of the time in the 50s to the 80s. It's now occurring about 10% of the time so it's about a 5-fold increase in extreme heat. And that's the same for daily temperatures, monthly temperatures. What we're finding is the extreme heat is occurring about 3-5 times more than it was in the past. So here's another way of looking at that. This is in Australia where we can actually calculate daily temperature for the whole continent back to about 1910. We've got really good records. So that means we can sort that into a percentile. So a bit like exam marks, this is the 99th percentile and the frequency of how many times we hit that 99th percentile. So the very warmest 1% of days over the last century. And you can see there's a trend there. So something's happened to my years at the bottom there, I'm not sure what. So this starts in 1910 takes about till 1940 to accumulate 28 days where the national temperature hit that 99th percentile so that top 1% of warmth. Why do I choose 28 days? We've got 28 days in 2013 alone. So that means the frequency is rapidly increasing. You can slowly change that mean temperature. You can see there's no change for the first 5 or 6, 7 decades. And then suddenly you're pushing that tail out to the other end and you're starting to see large changes in the extremes and that's salient for everyone who's in the adaptations base basically so they still have to cope with those extremes. And I've chosen temperatures here I could have talked about sea level so if we're up north and we're more exposed to storm cessation, tropical cyclones I could talk about that. But you can take this I guess as a general overview of extremes of the climate system. This one's just expressed on temperature itself. So I'm going to talk about a couple of days that would have been included in that plot so the sorts of days we're talking about is where we have heat spread over more than one state it's over a large fraction of the continent. So basically that plot summarizing that we're getting more heat waves they're more frequent they're longer when they are occurring and the central intensity of those heat waves is hotter. Especially in the last 10 to 15 years. So one a day that would have made it in there or one week really is the Black Saturday 2009 heat wave. So we're talking about events that look like that. More silently again I guess is the January heat wave in 2013. So 2013 for that January we started off that record year with really really hot temperatures a heat wave that was we only came close to once before in the record in 1971-72 and even then not really. So basically we broke every sequential record from one day through to one month in January 2013. This is important for people in charge of operations so from the Bureau's perspective during that week we were flying in or that month we were flying in forecasters from the US to give people relief off the bench so they could get some sleep. Of course these days you just go out and fight a fire and our models and our grids as much as possible during that period. So you know when you're getting these events and we're very lucky during this period in terms of the fires that did occur there was a lot of fires but luckily not a huge loss of life. The most high profile one I guess was down in Tasmania and the Denali fire but across New South Wales and Victoria and South Australia. So as you can see from the combination of these plots we're talking about these sorts of conditions not occurring for the next 10 years. We're talking about them occurring multiple times per season as we go into the future so that's a massive change when I go and talk to others around the Country Attorney General's departments and others it's really that change and that frequency that starts to increase itself in terms of what we're talking about here. And that really leads to an increase in fire weather as well I'll quickly talk about rainfall after this but this is the forest fire danger index and these red dots are where the danger index has increased both in terms of the amount of fire weather during the year a longer fire season and the extreme days, the extreme fire weather days becoming more extreme essentially and you can see the clustering around the south southeast there fire prone region anyway here's our graph from Melbourne Airport a lot of that variability is due with droughts and rainfall cycles but you can see a clear trend in terms of this FDI going up I'll quickly look inside so that's our sort of case study Black Saturday you couldn't say it was caused by climate change but it's really consistent with the sorts of events that will become more frequent and my won't go into the impacts I don't need to here but the sort of things that line up is a record heatwave record daytime temperatures record nine time temperatures a prolonged drought that was record breaking in some of its aspects and consistent with some of the projections going forward so I'll quickly talk about some long-term over Australia rainfall has gone up which is consistent with the greenhouse world you actually hold more water vapor in the atmosphere and in the tropics it tends to rain more in the higher latitudes it tends to rain more as well so you see that so when we're talking about rainfall increasing in Australia it's mostly from tropical systems that have originated north of that red line that I've drawn there it's just a marginal increase it's not a statistically significant increase and you can see it's concentrated on being fed by a much, much warmer Indian Ocean for us here in Victoria and our friends in southwest WA it's really the dry and this is again related to climate change those sub-tropical regions as you increase you don't just increase the water holding capacity you actually increase the ability of the atmosphere to evaporate so already dry regions tend to get drier and wet regions tend to get wetter so I've chosen southwest WA here just because the signal is so clean so again blue here is wetter than average red here is drier than average and I'm looking to walk away from this microphone but hopefully you can see the step change in the rainfall that occurred in the late 60s, early 70s so you have to go back to the mid 60s to get a really wet period in southwest WA and since then the wet years have gone and we've had this 10-15% drying in their winter climate so still getting rainfall in summer but the main rainfall coming from coal fronts and cut-off loads so the things that I've circled there that's where the rainfall is coming from and we're getting less rainfall from those it's still raining when we look at the rainfall over the southern ocean to the south it's actually raining more so what's happened is these fronts have pushed south it's a little bit like moving into a more permanent spring or summertime situation you're pushing those fronts further towards the pole and it can switch off quite suddenly just because it's quite marginally it was only getting the tip of those fronts coming through and then as you move the south it can actually change and the step change. We've seen a similar change in Victoria and the southeast since about 1995 even given those two wet years there is a 10-15% reduction in autumn and winter rainfall which is related to that fire increase that I've just shown and it's related to the impact of the next long drought I guess in Australia itself I've been over the southwest WA I've gone down into limestone casts underneath the carry forest that forest is similar ecological niche to the mountain ash so it's obviously rained in that part of the country for millennia it was the most reliable which time rainfall in the country actually it's still that most important grain-grain district and the limestone casts are dry you can see the high water mark from the mid-70s you know a couple of minutes above your head you can snap off some of the carry roots in your hand it's quite stark actually going down so that's what we're talking about in the introduction we talked about southern California they're experiencing similar things basically any part of the globe which was in the subtropics getting these westerly winds delivering the rainfall has experienced this drying and that is very symptomatic of global climate change itself so change is an extreme rainfall even in those regions where it's projected to dry when it does rain the rainfall is going to be heavier and that's just this densification of the hydrological cycle itself so that little sort of schematic that you would have been shown at school water evaporating off lakes going into the clouds and rainy you're basically souping that cycle up as you add the heat to the climate system and so just going through that I showed this plot earlier on of those twin line linear events that occurred in 2010 and 11 that's natural variability what was the influence of climate change well these are sea surface temperatures around Australia during that period and the orange there is when we've got the warmest on record so we've never seen those temperatures before you can see they're sitting off that northwest part of Australia so very important for rainfall in Victoria and you can see the impact on the record rainfall so we think the studies are showing there's probably about an extra 10% push from climate change on top of natural variability so that's what we're talking about and this is just a plot of the proportion of rainfall that's coming from really heavy heavy rainfall events there's sub-24 hour rainfall events across Australia and that's going up so what we're saying is the proportion of rainfall that's coming from extreme rainfall events is actually increasing and that's consistent across the globe and it's consistent with the climate model projections so just quickly touching on future projections this is just looking at sea level you can have this for temperature and really what I want to talk about here is the difference in the emission scenarios so RCP 2.6 is an theoretical emission scenario where we start removing carbon dioxide from the client system RCP 8.5 is an extreme or a high-end emission scenario it's also a business as usual business scenario unfortunately so when we talk about uncertainty and future climate change some of that's due to the emission scenario itself it has a natural component as well so if a volcano goes off a number of volcanoes go off that affects that emission scenario as well and then the rest here is just due to what we call the transient response or physics in the climate system so this is uncertainty in terms of what happens with the oceans what happens with polar ice caps things that aren't in the model so methane clathrate is permafrost in the northern hemisphere once that starts melting it releases carbon methane to the atmosphere very powerful greenhouse gas so when you're looking at that range these are the uncertainties the problem is the bottom of that range is really quite extreme in terms of climate change so when we present these to people it's like well that's a lot of uncertainty there's no comfort in that unfortunately really what we're saying is the bottom end is going to be hard to adapt to and that top end is one that you want to avoid I like to show you this at these kinds of talks so this is an uncertainty cascade and what it means is up this end is our uncertainty around CO2, global climate it's a lot smaller than it is for specific localised impacts this is kind of diabolical because specific localised impacts it's at that end of scale that a lot of the policy agility is it's where people need to act it's where people in this room actually have to start enacting their plans the less you mitigate into the future the bigger that uncertainty is at our end of the scale so I like to connect these two things together we're not just talking about adaptation here the two things go hand in hand so here's another way of looking at that here's that RCP 2.6 limiting warming to about 2 degrees over Australia and I'll come back to that RCP 8.5 you're talking about maybe 6 degrees of warming over Australia the rainfall on the right there the stippling there is where you have no significant change from natural variability so under a low emission scenario not much change in the rainfall under a high emission scenario you're actually starting to see a significant drying out of the southern half of Australia and interestingly how it's picked out south west WA these models know nothing about the real world observations they don't know anything about what's happened to rainfall in south west WA all they know is that the greenhouse gases have increased so it's really quite stark to see how they line up with the real world itself so this is the way I communicate that these days so instead of showing the projections we've actually got landscape analogs out there that we can look at and that people can understand so if we start in the Yarra Valley there in Melbourne and we just theoretically get 2 degrees warmer and 20% drier you actually move to somewhere out in the Wimmeram Alley or out in the clear south Australia so similar but different but a lot less rainfall you're losing your high-end rainfall ecosystems you're going to slightly drier cropping cycles and the like that's 2 degrees so that's like that guardrail that we're basically saying we want to limit warming to you can go 2 degrees warmer from clear or 4 degrees warmer from Melbourne and now you're in the Central Darling so a very very different climate system altogether there's no agriculture there's a very different environment and that's what we're trying to avoid that 4 degree scenario so this is another way to look at the projections I guess from that perspective so this is RCP 4.5 we're currently overshooting that it's a mid-level emission scenario these are about 30 different simulations for Australian annual temperature and the white there is what's actually happened over Australia and again these models don't know what's actually happened over Australia it's amazing how well that lines up really showing the influence of greenhouse gases dominant in Australia and there's that record warm year 2013 sitting there in the record with you know why heat waves and everything that ensues so that becomes about an average year by 2030 in terms of its impacts on Australia and then going out to about 2070 it actually becomes a cool this year so again adaptation has its limits in terms of what we're talking about I don't want to be too going home about adaptation when you're looking out to the end of the century what that upper graph there means those extreme years up the top there whether you can adapt to that or not and again this is why climate scientists you want to limit that warming to something that's manageable so I haven't talked about adaptation I think that's in the talks that follow here but I'm just again setting the scene and that's the end, thank you our reflection there everyone is that we are just so lucky to have the Bureau of meteorology doing this work for us and there's so much expertise that we can learn from and draw from that well if you're anything like me your minds have just been blown a little by some scary projections and some things, some motivation for us if we take them on the day does anyone have any questions for Carl anything you'd like to understand a little more about Craig does I think there certainly seems to be a step change in the rainfall from the early 70s going onwards now it's probably it's hard to say whether that's definitively a result of climate change it's definitely consistent with a warming planet at that time there's natural variability in there as well so there's this sort of decadal variability through the ENSO or the El Mino cycle as well but yeah certainly it seems like we've moved into a different rainfall regime following a really large cluster of Latina events and when you're looking at the way climate change is unfolding as I say it's sort of, it's managed in a way by natural climate variability so you'll notice the big spikes up in global mean temperature the last one was in 98 and that was coinciding with a really large El Mino event so we're sort of adding heat to the oceans at 90% if the additional energy from greenhouse gases going into the oceans that's changing the way the oceans vary so the planet's kind of warming up like a staircase and you can see these kind of step changes in the rainfall and the temperature so we don't quite know why there's a sudden change in the early 70s but we suspect it's due to the background change in the climate system I have a question if I can I've been hearing through rooms such as this or people in the rooms such as this about this summer and an El Mino after way now that I've learnt a little bit more is it on both sides? No, we've got neutral conditions in the Indian Ocean but we've got an El Mino event now at the moment so we can close last year to getting an El Mino event sort of surprised a lot of climatologists that we didn't get one and in this year we've got one quite early they kind of spurred on by tropical cyclones in the western Pacific so we had twin tropical cyclones around the time that I think Pam hit Vanuatu that kind of spurs El Mino along and we just had a couple more really late in the season that's pushed it on again so almost certainly we'll be in El Mino conditions by spring in summer in Australia which means dry conditions most likely when you get really extreme El Minos you almost always get flooding in Australia extreme El Minos don't always mean drought it's not quite symmetrical with the tropical and the late impacts but certainly the last we've missed out on the monsoon up north the last three seasons in a row so the very way we use that weather and Queensland but western Victoria is actually really dry and that's again it's a long-term run and there's sort of starting off or looking into the remainder of the year with a bit of trepidation that plot I showed about the changing frequency so we're getting more heatwaves in spring to give you an impact of what that means so that can knock about 10% for wheat yield in western Victoria just by coming at the wrong time of year and the fine parts of WA they're actually sowing earlier so they're taking advantage of the summer rainfall and they're trying to actually harvest before so they've changed their cocking cycle there and most of the viticulturalists because they keep such fine data so you find viticulture I think like really fine wool merino breeders they're under no illusions as to what's happening with the climate system because they're seeing it across the landscape for their own peace so yeah would you all join so I'm going to have questions SES I'll do that sometime can we hear the spaces Jack Marcus said that I was interested in your comment about the weather systems that come across from the west and how some of them are tending down towards the Antarctic what is the relationship between that and La Nina and El Nino and is there also an impact from the monsoon that's coming down from the north they're all interconnected basically so there's a pole of vortex around the continent and that contracts towards the continent or pushes north part of it is in concert with El Nino and in concert with say in the Indian Ocean so generally what we're seeing is that vortex is more contracted around the continent more of the time which means that storm tracks are getting pulled further south they're all they all share variability and yet negative IODs or dry conditions in the west in association with El Nino is on average but yeah I'm not sure I've answered your question but you can maybe chat to me afterwards and I can answer a bit more but yeah all those expressions of natural variability as you're adding heat to the system they're actually changing and that's the major challenge for us is to understand how those modes are changing the background climate system Tim, did you still want to ask a question? Carl, the current modelling that the Bureau has quite often struggles or is challenged by the extreme so extreme heat or extreme rainfall sometimes underestimated by 2 or 3 times a year in light of what all the statistics are showing what's the Bureau doing I guess to work at those models to try to give us a better chance of knowing what we could replace it So you're talking about a weather forecast now? Yeah, absolutely The extremes is really interesting for us so I'm not being recorded so I can sort of say some of this stuff I know it's live, I am live thanks so as you go further back in so if you go back to 30 years or so the rule of thumb was don't forecast a record particularly not on a weekend because there's no one on duty so the forecasters for years were trained to be skeptical of something where you were seeing a temperature that you've just never seen before that's now changed so we've sort of moved into a space where we're starting to get forecasts that basically forecasting records so we're implementing a system that actually tracks that in itself rather than just a forecast now it's going to be 45 we actually want to know where that sits in terms of the historical record so that means we've got to do a whole lot more verification to actually understand whether we can just trust the model without any input from a forecaster because a forecaster's biggest job is to use their personal experience of what six different models have done in a particular instance so you get an east coast low you might survey the Australian model the US model and you know which ones the system is better when you move into a climate system that's doing stuff you've never seen before then you have to really place your trust in the models itself and actually I think the models have been coming out pretty good we're about to move to a new supercomputer which is the biggest increase in terms of model skill that you get and the new satellites just come online which is Himalari 8 so previously we used to get about a 10 minute imagery that means we can basically watch a tropical cyclone or a weather system in real time and we're starting to draw with a bigger supercomputer you're actually pulling more observations in at the start so really in about two years time I think you'll have another step change in the forecast capability it's already increased basically the skill of a one day forecast at the time of Ash Wednesday is now about the skill of a four day forecast in terms of a Black Saturday event and things like the wind changes and others are what we're focusing on predicting so I think in terms of meteorology as a form of adaptation that's something that certainly we're thinking about and moving towards do you all thank you so much Carl would you all join me in thanking Carl thank you again Carl that was really great