And then I think that's something that we need to acknowledge that the store is important. It's going to continue to be important. But it's how do we utilize that in-store experience? How do we utilize brick and mortar to support everything else that's going on with digital? Welcome to the Smarter Building Materials Marketing Podcast, helping you find better ways to grow leads, sales, and outperform your competition. All right. Welcome to Smarter Building Materials Marketing, where we believe your online presence should be your best. I am Zach Williams, alongside my co-host, Beth Popingloff, and we've got a great show lined up for you today. We're going to be breaking down for you data that we recently shared on a webinar that we co-hosted with the Foreign's Worth Group, with some market research that we conducted together about what's happening in the building product space, specifically DIYers, contractors, and pros. What shifts have happened because of COVID? You can grab any of the data that we talk about today, any of the webinars. You can make sure you go to venue.com slash audiences. It's going to help you in any kind of marketing or strategic planning. But with that, Beth, who do we have on the show with us today? We have potentially our favorite guest. We are really excited to have Grant Farnsworth back with us. He is president of the Farnsworth Group. They are one of our very trusted partners. Really excited to have you here, Grant. Thanks for joining us. Well, thanks for having me again. Clearly, I've got some more work to be done. On my part, I'm potentially the favorite. Yeah, potentially. We like to hedge. It's always a moving list, so you've got to make sure you can send gifts and whatever you want. We can be bought. If you'd like to get to that number one spot, I can send you some things that have been sitting on my Amazon wish list for a while. Always good to chat with you guys, so thanks for having us back. Grant, just in case any of our listeners are not familiar with your work at this point, why don't you do a little intro and then we can jump into the things we talked about in the webinar. Yeah, so the Farnsworth Group is a custom market research firm who gets deeper insights on your customer, your brand, your product, and your specific market to help you develop strategies, whether it's product strategies, overall acquisition strategies, customer strategies, whatever the case may be. We are the leading primary research firm for the Building Products Home Improvement Law and Branch space. Any questions about getting a deeper insight to your customer, your brand or product, we'd be happy to help have those conversations and develop a scope for work for you. Awesome. So to give everyone a little insight, in case you missed the webinar last week, in October, November 2020, guys, we introduced the 2021 Building Products Customer Guide, so the Farnsworth Group in Benvio. We surveyed almost 2,000 contractors, builders, architects, designers, engineers, installers, DIYers to talk about what's changed, how the pandemic has influenced their behavior, and not just in the immediate but what they expect from manufacturers and building product suppliers and retailers in 2021 and beyond. So we did a huge webinar on that in October, but the main feedback we got and what we really wanted to dig into was like, okay, let's go deeper into the specific audiences, and that's what we just talked about last week. So we did a deep dive into architects and designers, into builders as an individual group, into contractors as an individual group, and into DIYers as an individual group. And that's what we're going to chat about a bit today. It's just what were the highlights? How are people talking and receiving the information that we talked about? And really, what are some of those standouts for Zach and Grant and me that we wanted to make sure anybody who didn't get to participate in the webinar at least had these like a couple of high level pieces on their radar? Not to mention there's some really cool infographics, right? Not to mention those really good looking infographics. Beth, if I could put you in the spot, what was your biggest takeaway? Like if you're looking at the data, you know, with architects, contractors, DIYers, whatever it might be, is there anything that really stands out to you? Yeah, I think the number one, so we're obviously going to talk a lot about online and the importance of online from last year. But I think the main thing that I've actually heard Grant say is like, it's no longer e-commerce, it's now just commerce. And as we're starting to see things open up and as we return to at least being able to get out of our houses, the need for really like complete seamless messaging. What you're saying on the aisle has to match what I'm seeing on your website and what you're seeing to me on social media has to match what's in your ads and in your email and in your newsletter and in your flyers, that that is so blended and we've been talking about that for years. But it feels like, okay, now since I was really pushed back online, but I'm really excited to be able to go back into the store now, that seamlessness is more important than ever. Because as Zach, as you like to say, if you confuse them, you lose them. But that's no longer just on your homepage if it's confusing. Now it's, I might be standing in the aisle checking reviews on your website and I need all of those boxes to be ticking all alongside each other. You can't take for granted the individual ways that people might be looking into you. I love that. Grant, what about you? Yeah, well, I think with that, the return to end stores is certainly there. And I think what's critical on our side is that the brick and mortar isn't dead. And despite us maybe talking a lot about digital and the growth of digital and the acceleration, the store isn't dead. It's just the role that the store now plays. And I think that's something that we need to acknowledge that the store is important. What's going to continue to be important. But it's how do we utilize that in-store experience? How do we utilize brick and mortar to support everything else that's going on with digital? So I think, Beth has fought on and we haven't seen a decline in online purchasing, a decline in digital as we've seen a return to in-store. So I think constantly as we talked about last week and as we always hear from clients, what's going to stick? Right. And so far, these digital behaviors are sticking. Yep, the store is still important. And yes, a lot of that has come back. But that online piece is still there. So I think that was really important. And as far as, Zach, your question on what was one of the most surprising things, for me, it was the amount of brand shift amongst pros. And it was most amongst the architects. It was pretty high with commercial contractors. It was moderately high with builders, lower for GCs and remodelers. But overall to have anywhere between 25 and 35% of pros try a new brand of a building product that they had never touched before. That's a pretty big slap in the face from a group that is pretty steadfast in what they buy, how they buy, where they buy, what they do. So again, I think that's woken up a lot of people in our industry. And one of the things that is certainly driving that is, that the word he alluded to is the acceleration of digital. But I think as we were talking last week and have been for the last several months, the theme of availability is really connected throughout, whether we're talking about channel behaviors, brand behaviors, online behaviors, the supply chain issue isn't going away anytime soon. And it's already had a dramatic impact on what people are buying, where they're buying it. Well, it's not just supply of the products, it's also supply of the labor.  I was talking to a buddy of mine. He's like, yeah, I'm scheduling my remodel for 2022. I was like, what? Scheduling for next year. He's like, oh, yeah, the remodeler is booked out through the end of the year. And so if I look at DIY, which I think is really interesting, and I was asking before the show grant, like how many of the companies you work with focus on DIY and Pro, and you're like, what, roughly half, right? Half and half. What's interesting is if you look at the last recession, 2007-2008, people got into DIY because of pricing. People got into it in this pandemic because they don't want to see people, they're concerned, and they just had time on their hands. They couldn't go out, they couldn't go to vacations, so they took on projects. So it's very different. And so one of the questions I have for you, and I know we didn't really necessarily cover this too much in the webinar, but what do you think the future of DIY is? Do you think that more people are going to be DIYing? Or do you think we're going to see this continue to see a little bit of a decline in the percentage of Americans that do DIY? Great question. We know historically, and the foreign group has been studying this industry for over 30 years now, and we know classically, historically, the younger generation, the more DIY they're going to be doing, the more first-time home buyers, the more DIY activity we see. So I think from that standpoint, when you look at the fundamentals of the industry, when you look at population demographics, when you look at demand, etc., we've got a lot of first-time home buyers, relatively new home buyers, maybe second home buyers that are coming on board. So I think the population, the group of people there to do DIY work is still going to remain solid. They're going to be getting into homes for the first time wanting to touch up this, that, and the other paint the walls where the case may be. So I don't believe, and our firm doesn't believe, that this DIYer is going away. And I think for a long time, we were talking about Gen Y as kind of the death of DIY. They don't want to do anything themselves. They're going to hire it all out, and that hasn't proven to be the case at all. What I think we may see though, Zach, is maybe a leveling off of some DIY activity over COVID. So 2020 was insanely good for DIY activity because you mentioned that people were home, they had the time, they didn't want people in their homes, disposable income shifted greatly. So I'm not going out, I'm not traveling, I've got this money.  So I think as we, quote, return to normal, which is a terrible thing to say, but as we feel more comfortable and we go out and go back to experiences and entertainment, et cetera, that disposable income is going to shift. So I think we'll level off on DIY. I also think a lot of work is pent up on the contractor side. So there were things that I've been wanting to do for the last 12 to 18 months that I didn't do. Because again, I didn't want somebody in my home. I wasn't sure where the economy was going to go. I wasn't sure about that. Well, now I'm feeling uncomfortable and by the way, the equity in my home is twice as much of what I expected it to be at this point. If I want something different, if I want a new layout of a home, I can't go find a house to buy because there's no inventory. So again, we look to Fundamentals Act to really help us understand what's going to drive whether it's DIY activity, contractor activity, et cetera. And the fundamentals are there to speak to the fact that there is going to be DIY activity because of house buying activity. But there's also going to be a lot of contractor activity. Again, because of Fundamentals, equity in the home, lack of inventory, et cetera. So we're seeing bigger projects come online from contractors than we have in the last few years. We're seeing better closure rates with contractors. We're seeing more project requests come in over these last few months than early last year. So I think things are trending in the right direction, certainly on the contractor side. Long-winded answers to say DIY I think is probably going to be level off here a little bit. Yeah, it's interesting. I gave a pretty close balls on Google Trends specifically, what's happening on Google when it comes to DIY projects versus specific building product categories. And I was doing some research over the weekend. And we saw this pretty nice bump of how to do X, Y, and Z in the home, or how to do this during COVID. Really nice bump. And like you said, it's leveled out a little bit. What's interesting though is we saw this very similar bump in COVID on how to buy certain products online in COVID. We saw this really nice uptick. What's interesting is that has actually stayed pretty consistent on Google. So although activity for DIY projects may have leveled out, the increase in online activity of how to get a hold of products and purchase them online, that acceptance rate and the likelihood that someone might be willing to buy that online is just escalated. I think we mentioned maybe in the webinar about that TechCrunch article where there's I think the acceleration of e-commerce grew five years and five months. And that's true for building products too. It's like the idea of how do I get products online or even begin that research process where I may have done it a different way, may have talked to somebody. People are going online even more. And are you all seeing Trends by category? So Beth, I wonder as we think about seasonally lawn and garden right now, I'm assuming you're seeing some metrics that are seeing that spike. Are you seeing a shift to in other product categories that has maybe fallen off from COVID or has stayed level or even increased since this pandemic started a year ago? So we're right at the beginning peak of when lawn garden starts to pick up. I was actually looking at that information this past weekend and it looks like it's going to be very, very strong. Like that's just a leading indicator on Google. Like if you look at what happened, literally it's like March 15th is when things really started to shut down last year and you saw this dip. It was literally like a dip and then like a massive spike. We're not seeing a dip, but I don't see people spending less money outside. If anything, they're going to spend more. Well, I actually was going to ask you that, Grant, if you're seeing that because I think as we've been talking about, you know, we're talking about the building materials customer, not just like what's changed because that's not helpful, but like what's staying the same from what's changed. And I think it's similar from a homeowner standpoint. It's there's this shift that you can feel that's like my priorities now and in the future have changed. And you see it in how KB Homes is going after home designs, that home design plans from one of the largest builders and the nation has shifted as a result. That tells you they're not really known for like quick right turns. Like they are shifting because there is a stayed demand for I'm now going to just spend more time in my house because I have spent more time in my house over the last two years. So I'm going to invest because that habit isn't going to change. We were like talking recently like no one's just bum rushing grocery stores right now because things are starting to open up. Now I started to get my groceries delivered and it turns out that that's incredible. So I'm just going to keep doing that. And there's there's some other pieces as well along the same lines and just interested if you guys are seeing something similar. I mean just look at this practically if you're manufacturing anything that's an outdoor space. Let's say you're selling decking or pavers or pergolas for that matter. Do you think you're like I don't know if we should like run at full capacity after 2020. You're probably like all in just pushing.  I mean if you look at Google yes indicators look very strong but after what went through last year of course you would right. We were talking with the fastener company and we often will you know meet with like contractors to get some feedback or audience feedback on specific products and they were like yeah we'd love for you to talk to our customer but you can't can't get them on the phone like they're not available. We like maybe in December when it's snowing outside like those things will slow down but like they can't talk to you don't even try. Beth your question on stickiness or what you know what what's what's I think that's a really appropriate question because we've been talking a lot in our company about imprint and this idea of how we look at the home is going to stick. I mean we've maybe almost I don't want to say forever change like how we look at the home but you've referenced you know Lunar and KB and you know those big builders of the world already shifting their design trends. I think we're seeing that translate to you know DIY projects I think we're seeing that translate to contractor projects as well. We are still doing our COVID home improvement tracker we're looking at DIY activities and contractor activities and I know it's not about you know the building products customer guide but in that COVID tracker we are actually seeing increased DIY activity in March this year compared to March last year and in fact if you look at the retail sales data for home improvements hardware lawn and garden January and February are up year over year and we're actually going into March with metrics that would indicate March is actually going to be better than last year. So this stuff I mean like I think we all keep waiting we just had a webinar with another group about this topic and I feel like the industry is just waiting for DIY to fall off a cliff that there's no way that homeowners can continue to do work on their home. While contractors are getting more and more projects there's no way both can do work in tandem but we haven't seen it yet like this idea that everyone's going to like in a mad rush just go fly off to Disneyland or go travel and eat out of restaurants and just spend all their cash on things they couldn't do for the past year it just hasn't happened yet it's just hasn't. Well you said it in the beginning grant of you know like Gen Y millennials were talked about as like the death of DIY and from since I've started like really being a part of the building materials industry like 2012-2013 that's all I've been hearing about like when we would talk about DIYers everyone's like yeah but they're like fly by night they were like this little like minuscule part of the building products they're like this isn't gonna last and HGTV was like oh no pretty sure it is like we're we're good here. And it's just beat like the lines have just blurred I feel like DIYers just double down and they're like uh not only am I not going to go anywhere I'd also like your installation guide on steel siding please. Well there's an interesting article that came out a couple weeks ago in the Wall Street Journal about this I think the title of it was something like here I'm actually going to pull it up says Home Depot and Lowe's shouldn't fear pandemics end you know because they had such a strong year and I mean both of them are pretty good indicator of the pro and the DIYer and the basic premise of it is you know Wall Street's a little concerned are they going to you know have as strong of a year as what they had in 2020 and the data says that they had their best January ever. Now Graham we're in a little bit of a lockdown but they're still seeing very strong revenue and and on top of that think about how much infrastructure they built into their business during that time too whether that's faster checkout or streamlined ordering all of these things make it easier to buy which we all know translates to more revenue. That I've heard you know you and Beth and the Venvio team talk about frictionless and you know Beth you use the analogy of grocery and and you may never go into a grocery store again because you found a more frictionless process a lot of us have had that same experience with with building materials and home improvement products and how we go about getting them and so yeah I mean I don't think this is the end you look at those sales data I mean you look at those numbers and you look at the intent that we're seeing on our tracker you look at how people are going about the projects they're doing it's I mean at least for the next few months it looks to be holding pretty solid. I think it's an interesting point to bring back the conversation around channel conflict because we all have heard a lot we always hear a lot about that and we're hearing a lot about it we're just frankly a lot of questions when we talk about how big online was last year and I think we've always said rising tide lifts all ships that's kind of been a bit of our mantra of like yeah it makes people uncomfortable I actually was just talking to somebody the other day was like looking for a bathtub used Kohler's website to find exactly what they want they're like mega pumped about it it's a homeowner mega pumped about the gorgeous soaking tub that they found from Kohler but then they bought it from Home Depot because they're like it was like $200 cheaper on Home Depot I'm like yeah that's by design by the way they did that so that Home Depot doesn't get pissed that they have an e-comp experience I didn't say that but anyway but I think it's no longer going to be rising tides lift all ships it's like if I'm not available everywhere wherever the consumer happens to be in that moment I also won't be a good product for you to stock on your shelves because no one's going to buy me there either you are going to see like drop off in sales of my product from your shelf because my product isn't available on e-comp yeah those are going to become the facts you're missing out on brand loyalty opportunities you're missing out on long lifetime conversion opportunities it's this if omni channel which is like very fancy but if like seamlessness from in-store online in your ads in your print in your trade show booth if that expectation from a messaging standpoint is increased also the expectation that I'm going to buy it like you've got an app you're in retail you're in a dealer wherever I am that's where you are selling it and that's what I want you have to be you have to be the customer whether it's what and now what's interesting is it's it's not just the di wire meeting them where they're at when they're at where they want it how they want it is the contractor as well and I think there's a really interesting power shift that could be happening right now what we've seen happen for the last you know two decades is that depot and lows really took power away from manufacturers right I mean if they were calling the shots and to a certain extent they were controlling the power when it came to the customer you're going to buy what we have when we have it what else are you going to do now what we're seeing is the customer is starting to take power they've got the ability to go to 50 different things and learn and educate and and figure out what they want where they want it and they're going to get it from whoever delivers it best to them so now all of a sudden I think the retail space the pro channel space as well as the manufacturers are now having to figure out a way to come together share some power so that they can meet these customers in a way that they want it and I think this is going to be and can be a really really good thing for our industry and Beth you're spot on this this discussion around channel conflict is going to solve that so if manufacturers and suppliers can figure out a way to work together and and what I think it's about is functional execution so we now need to understand okay the brand can do a bnc the channel can do x y and z let's all lean on each other for what we can execute really really well so that by the end the consumer stays with our little flywheel that we've built right we have every outlet covered we have every content piece covered because we have to be in all these places so I think there's a real tremendous opportunity we've been so scared historically with channel conflict but I think this is a huge opportunity and almost a requirement that we have to face it now and figure it out that's like a mic drop situation yeah it's great would you guys agree with that like but so kind of percent but what are you hearing from a standpoint of who's winning right now in in that channel conflict discussion what what strategies what tactics are you seeing when are we still too early to understand what doesn't doesn't work when I want to be in all places while not upsetting each of those suppliers well I think there's a couple of things you see that are happening that there's not a clear winner yet like if look what's happening outside of building products for a second massive growth in like delivery I can be on my phone and I get what I want immediately this hasn't really taken now there's in some markets you see it some people startups even Home Depot is trying to get to this place but there's not a clear winner when it comes to getting products on the job site or to my house like if I think food I think DoorDash like they were like the clear winner from the pandemic if I need a car tomorrow it's Carvana yeah right if I want to buy something e-commerce it's Amazon all of those conveniences is the you know the clear thing that people want if I want building products you'll notice that there's a lot of people investing in that VC money big money big tech trying to get to that space I think that is where you'll see I mean look back on this episode 12 18 24 months from now we oh this company won somebody's going to win that I don't know who it's going to be still a little bit fragmented than you think right now I mean from what we've seen and what we've heard there's a couple players out there trying to win this and not I know this it wasn't really in our webinar but there's a couple of players who are trying to win this who are going to invest heavily into this to be the go-to source for both pro and homeowner yeah and I think that will be probably the biggest thing we see that that came out is going oh well this is like the clear winner one of two things will probably happen it's going to be somebody an upstart that like really takes off and then like Home Depot or Lowe's buys them or Home Depot or Lowe's is going to do it yeah and they're going to win it's going to be one of those two things how important are you seeing the discussion around brand and truly creating brand for our industry or just which is something that historically maybe you know our industry doesn't do doesn't do very well with the exception of maybe a few categories but how do you see the role and importance of establishing brand in our industry kind of all across all categories taking hold over the next few years well I think it's a fresh start for everybody whether you want it or not the reason being is that everything people want today it's very different than it was 12 months ago maybe similar in some regards but you're basically starting over and so if you want to win if you want to be the brand of choice it's no longer just about your product it's about the promise around your product that's going to define you what I mean by that it's service it's ease it's support it's the experience and then the product is kind of at the center of that but manufacturers for so long have relied on hey look at our features features are great if you have availability today versus if you don't like what are people going to buy I need the product today that is a thing around your product that's going to determine whether or not people buy it so I think brand is incredibly important but if the brand is no longer just the features of the product and the product itself it's everything else around your product the technology service experience etc that's defining what brand is today for an industry that up to this point really hasn't had to think about that that's I think a really good point and that's in line with you know what we what we see in a lot of the research that we do for our clients we think about that traditional value prop oh yeah price is still important price is important quality is still important but those have become it seems table stakes and the research that we do for trade and for for DIYers so it's now Zach you know kind of that third element you know your value proposition now has to incorporate some other elements whether it's service or support or whatever the case may be like that's now got to be baked in beyond just quality and price well there's there's whole companies that that is their entire value proposition yeah instacart I go on my phone I get the oysters I want and they're delivered to my doorstep yeah their product is is a service and they scaled it you know and so I think that's the shift we have to make mentally you know great point but grand this has been awesome thank you so much for coming on the show yeah I know we probably went six ways from Sunday outside of the building products customer guide but there's a lot of exciting things happening in our industry right now and I think a lot of topics that that are going to be relevant for the next you know two or three years that are important for us to to help our clients with absolutely agreeing and again for our listeners if you want to get a hold of these data infographics that we mentioned in the show go to vanvio.com slash audience you can also get access to that webinar we just completed it's great information at your fingertips great if someone wants to get in touch with you what's the best way for them to do that yeah they can visit the farmswithgroup.com they can email our team at results at the farmswithgroup.com feel free to reach out to me directly or or any one of my colleagues and always happy to have a conversation perfect again for our listeners make sure you go to vanvio.com slash podcast to subscribe until next time I'm Zach Williams alongside Beth Popney Glove thanks everybody


Okay, now what happen say if we want to match a special character from within a character class for example the character sign, dollar sign or the period dot or the opening square bracket or backslash which is also called a meta characters. So the simplest way to match the special character is to escape them by simply adding the backslash before that character like this. Alright, now let us move ahead. Character ranges generally follow the character order of the local. Here what I mean to say is let's look at this ASCII character table. As you can see if you use capital A to capital P as the range all is fine and the correct group of character is selected. However, if I change the range to go from capital A to lowercase D the characters between the capital Z and the lowercase A are also selected. Obviously, this is just a simple example, but be careful when you define your character ranges in your regular expression using this character class. Another thing to be very of is the order in which you give the characters to define a range. Again, say for example, if I define my range as 0 to 9 then then no problem as it is a valid range. However, if I define the ranges as 9 to 0 the behavior is not completely defined. That means your regex is considered either invalid or it may happen that your regex engine might throw an error. So be careful when you define the character order within the regex. Let's move ahead. In some of the card games the Joker is a wild card and used to represent any other playing card. But with certain restrictions, same way in regular expression there is a concept of wild card which is represented by the dot meta character. The dot will generally match anything like alphabetic or numeric character or white space, punctuations and any other symbols except the new line character. When using a dot within a character class it loses its special meaning and matches just a literal dot. So here this a dot c matches only either a or dot or c. But if I remove this character class then it matches a b c or a d c etc. So using a dot within a character class as a wild card would be a kind of senseless anyways as it already matches everything. Alright so this is the end of part 1 of module 2. In the next part we will learn about the quantifiers, meta character alternation, subpattern and grouping. So stay tuned and see you in the next part.


Within the framework of the European Union Mission for Military Assistance to Ukraine, 30,000 servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are planned to be trained this year. This was reported by the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine on Telegram. In 2023, within the framework of the EU Military Assistance Mission for Ukraine, it is planned to train 30,000 servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, including soldiers of the transatlantic force. The statement said. As reported, the participants of the Rammstein 13 meeting discussed the plans of the US European Command as well as individual European countries to train Ukraine soldiers on aircraft, tanks and other platforms as well as to ensure the effectiveness of the transferred weapons.


We had a three-part round table conversation that some of the challenges you may be experiencing you're no different than me There is someone there that looks like me like representation matters Having come from a time where I was the only black person in the building till today where we've got diversity Unlike we've had in the past. It's exciting. I am so excited to be here with these beautiful young ladies today for the Black history month round table and I would love to have each one of you introduce yourselves. I'll start with you Brianna Yes, I'm Brianna. I'm a group sales account executive, so I joined the team back in January 2020 my primary focus is Working with companies and organizations here across Tennessee and coming out and enjoying an experience here at Nissan stadium with the Tennessee Titans Whether that be for company purposes client employee entertainment or just spending time with loved ones here at our building So that's our my primary focus and what what is your journey to get here before joining the organization? Yeah, so I always knew I wanted to work in sports Just didn't quite know how I was gonna go about that right so during undergrad I took an opportunity to be an operations assistant did that really loved it that kind of solidified my passion of Man, you know, I'm addicted to this. I'm addicted to being in sports So after that I took an internship with a another NFL organization for one season and then January 2020 my first time in Nashua I applied to join this team and the rest is history. Love having you What about you Jihari? So I am like I said director of Titans Foundation and community programs So everything I do my role is Centered around community impact and how the Titans show up in our community on a local level But also on a statewide level and also looking at all of our NFL League initiatives when it comes to our Corporate source social responsibility Our foundation is is is plays a huge impact and a huge role in how we show up for our fans How we show up for youth and families and so I have the privilege of being able To connect the dots and really find opportunities for us to go deeper and wider in the community I have a long history and Non-profit and community work so prior to joining the Titans I spent about 20 years in the nonprofit sector And so I never imagined myself working for an NFL franchise team, but I love being able to connect the dots for that social responsibility piece and really giving Companies and organizations like the Tennessee Titans a chance to just show up for their neighbors. Love it. Love it Valeria What I do for the Titans is I do all legal and risk management with the focus primarily on transactional work So all of our event agreements all of our revenue generating agreements our sponsorship agreements That's primarily my area. I would say over the past few months I've kind of really served in the capacity of a generalist and so it's just anything that any of our 25 Departments our business units need any help with Whether it is business advisory Getting advice on like how to have these conversations with partners or clients To anticipate any risks before entering into a deal and then on the back end like reviewing Contractual languages to ensure that the company is protected from a legal perspective Before coming to the Titans I worked for the NFL for a few years, which was completely different I did not work as an attorney, but I did have some type of legal capacity I worked in football operations and I represented the NFL against players for on-field violation and so When I worked a few games on the Titans I worked about three games last season and when I seen the job opening I was like, you know what this is an opportunity that I can't miss and I took a leap of faith and I'm here now I Am so glad I'd get like goosebumps thinking about it to be sitting at the table with like three beautiful black women Having been in the position where I was the only black woman for I won't say how long I've been here But a whole lot of years like 23 You started at three years. Yeah, I was three and so then there was like it was first black child But it feels so good right it feels so good to be sitting at this table and there are others in the building that aren't necessarily Sitting here, but to have someone that you can connect with and it's it's natural, right and so Just talk a little bit about how it feels and anybody can jump in how it feels to not just be a black woman But a woman in an industry that's dominated primarily by men and what that feels like and how you navigate that and you know Just just coming from that perspective. I mean, it's challenging, right? I think we all three can agree on that. There's times where maybe I feel like Being a woman and being a minority woman at that I'm afraid to maybe be vocal if if times are Challenging or I might not agree with something and it's a little Nerve-wracking to allow yourself to be vulnerable in that in that capacity But I will say to your point Tina about you know us three at this table Yourself included and then all the women at our organization that are not here. I mean y'all are trailblazers I mean, I'm young in my career, but to be able to say hey There's you know Tina. I knew a Tina that did this I knew a jihari that that did that, you know Valeria reminds me of this and then to look at myself and be like okay My dreams aren't too big and my aspirations aren't too far and so to be able to connect the dots on that I think speaks speaks volumes about where we are right now at this table I just you know hearing you talk about that brings tears It makes me really emotional Because I will honestly say that in my career oftentimes I didn't have someone that I could go to Understood some of the challenges I had and that was so on top of being frustrated About what was happening or what you were dealing with there was a second level of frustration That there was no one in your circle of influence that could help navigate that situation And so I appreciate being called a trailblazer because oftentimes you don't see yourself in that light You just you go to work to do a job and to do it well, right? Yeah, but when there is an opportunity To to help bring somebody up. I think that's what we all have right. We all have that responsibility to Bring somebody behind us up to help them get to wherever it is. They want to go in their journey So I I really appreciate that. Yeah, I think you know Tacking on to Brianna's comment.  She was the first office that I really Saw where she really just showcased her kids and showcased like I am a working mother and so It does become When you're looking around the room, you kind of are able to just make these kind of subtle eye contact moments of like I got you we're in this together And I love that, you know, if I'm having a stressful day or if I'm having just a day where I need to just let loose and Just you know that I can call on some of the women that look like me in this workplace And then I know I have Multiple women who look like me in this workplace and who can share and some of the sentiment and the experiences that that we go through as working women I Think for me if I'm being honest It's like fighting this imposter syndrome, right because it's like you're in this role and you're in this position and you're in this industry And you fulfill in a capacity that traditionally and historically did not look like you and so constantly you're walking into Your office as you walking into like the day trying to tackle on the roles and responsibilities And you're questioning and you're having insecurities like am I fit for this role? Like I don't I haven't seen anyone to come before me And so that adds on another level of challenging because then you know as trailblazers We're kind of really set in that position to be responsible for the next class of women that's gonna come in And so I just appreciate the camaraderie and the family that I have here their times. I'll go to y'all Like cuz I'm dealing with problems everyone's issues Everyone's contracts day in and day out and it's different different topics different groups different peoples and different issues Right after the other and so sometimes the person that's carrying the weight of the organization needs somebody to You know to talk to and you ladies have been mad and other ladies throughout the building and so I appreciate that while we are women working in a male dominated feel that we are there We show up for each other and we are available to assist and we meet each other right where we are And we're here because we're supposed to be here That was a I was many years ago when I worked in a different department I had gone to one of the league meetings where everyone comes from around the league and I was the only woman there, right? Black or white only woman, right? And so they went to do a social outing after our meeting and they had Golf outing for all the guys and when I was looking for my name I didn't see anything and I finally went up to the organizer and I and I said well, where is mine? They said oh, we've planned a spy day Day and the opportunity to go off because I'm not here And like I want people to see me as someone who is deserving of the space not Here because I check a box not here because they need to check a woman box Or here because they need to check a black box, but here because I deserve to be here So when you think about like being deserving of that oftentimes people Young people see you and see you as arrived You are here and here and here like they don't see the the heart times and things that you went through to get here Talk a little bit about some of that adversity and how you handled it and what you learned through that process Still handling it I Could say this transparently I Felt and I felt miserably throughout the course of my career when I tried to get into law school I did not get in the first time I did my score was not high enough and I knew then I was like maybe it's not meant for me to be a lawyer And then I took two years and then got into law school And then when I graduated law school then was my my battle would pass in the bar I took sick and so it took a few years for me to get back on track and pass the bar and then Right whenever I get you know into the career then I graduated law school at a time Where it's like the economy was like literally going through a recession And so it was hard for everyone to find a job and then that question came like is it meant for me to be a Lawyer and so how I sustained that it's just like keeping that vision in front of me And knowing that isn't attainable and knowing that it is okay to fail and not giving up being open to pivot Like I said before I came here I was in a non-lawyer role so you have a person who is Licensed to practice law, but it's not practice practicing law So being open to pivot whenever the opportunity that presents itself is not ready for you But you are and just extending yourself enough grace to know this is my end goal This is what I need to do to get there But I know it may take a little while longer it may take a little more effort than normal But to still keep that in front of you. Yeah, I Mean there's been several conversations throughout my career where I'm expressing interest that I have in in sports and in careers and jobs and just things of that nature and literally having Men tell me oh women can't do that or or that's not made for a woman to do and so I see as you know the course of the past couple years women are doing these you know Groundbreaking things and opportunities and in my head. That's that's fuel to the fire It's like oh, I remember when someone told me that I wasn't meant for a woman and look at this girl now Look at her. She is rocking it And so it it makes me take a step back when there's been times where I'm like oh Maybe I feel this way because I'm a woman or maybe this is why I was given this task in this role I alluded to those things that I heard earlier on but now that I see just the growth it keeps me going it keeps me You know Like no one's gonna tell me I'm not qualified to do something I end to your point checking a box or hitting a quota. I Want you know women to just get the job because they're the most qualified like you know all power to having women in roles Love to see that I'm the biggest advocate as we all are for those But you know Some of these opportunities have granted people saying oh she just got it because she's a woman and it's no She got it because she's the best person for the job. So I used to say it was funny I used to say I'm gonna take one for the team if I got to be the only black in the building that allow Represent as well, but I remember when you talk about Being in places where they they felt like or they told you that it wasn't the right position for a woman Like I've experienced that personally I know when I was interested when I started working with the organization and I learned all the facets of the Organization and one I was really interested in was player development now it's player engagement and I expressed interest and I was always told No, nope can't do that. No can't do that and one particular instance The position became available and I went to the hiring manager and said I really want this job and they appeased me and Interviewed me and asked me to go downstairs and bring somebody else up and I did it unbeknownst to me Two minutes later. They introduced that person a male as the director of player development And so in that moment, I'm like damn. Sorry I'm like that was a slap in the face Because I have to work with this person Be I need to really stop and think what's important to me And if I if is this the place I'm supposed to be like am I supposed to be here because I really thought I was prepared But what I learned is the value and losing right there was so much less than in losing I had so many opportunities to learn so much more That what I learned from that is I wasn't ready then and so by taking that step back and reevaluating what was important in my life Five years later the team called me I didn't ask them they came to me and said are you ready to be the first woman director of player development in the NFL? And so that moment showed me perseverance and how you work through something and how you have to determine What you stand for who you are what it is you're hoping to achieve and what you're willing to do to get there So it's like not about you telling me no or you telling me no It's me believing that I believe there's a yes, right? And so when we think about Like there's a lot of weight On all of our shoulders for various reasons whether it be your communities your sorority sisters College students your little nieces and nephews you have a beautiful daughter and son like there is a lot of responsibility Sitting at this table like talk a little bit about how you handle that and what message you have to those What what do you say to your beautiful daughter? You know? Yeah, I you know as you are talking and sharing about your experience with Player development, you know I started to think about I've spent a lot of time in nonprofit and a big chunk of that has been centered around youth development and I think sometimes we Under estimate Even though we may think oh no one cares about what I'm doing or no one's noticing what I'm doing But I found that oftentimes you'd be you'll be so surprised at the person that you are Inspiring the person that you have impacted the person who's aspiring to a role like yours And I never fully Saw the value in that until I had a daughter and then once I had a daughter You know, I would work with young women and they would ask me about oh, mr. Are you you you're an executive director like wow like I want to be that and I'm like That was just a job for me Like I didn't realize that it was that I didn't realize that people were watching and so I think that is the one thing that I always Constantly remind myself that Someone is watching Valery you mentioned this about being an example and that you're we're paving the way for the next set of women who are coming and That is something that I always try to remind myself is that someone's watching you're paving the way for someone else You're kicking down a door for the next woman for the next black little girl that needs to that wants to work in sports and so I try to go approach everything with this mentality of I Want the next little black or brown girl to be able to say I'm here because a Tina knocked down this door a Brianna kicked over this barrier or Because an Amy Adams strong, you know was the first woman whatever it may be. I want to Be able to leave that legacy I want to be able to leave that notion with black and brown little girls of you can be the next Like I may be the first but there's always a next after me And I want you to be that next and I want you to learn from what I did and come in ten times better be the next bad Ass in this role And even for my daughter, you know, who knows if she'll work in sports or even if she Love sports the way that I do Not But I do want her to think of her mother as someone who like you said never accepted a no, but also Found the found a way to encourage herself and use that confidence to say, you know what I Can do this can't be I can't be ex. I can't whatever she aspires to be and to know to not let that imposter Syndrome sink in and to find ways when those little voices do creep in to find ways to negate that and say, you know what nope I'm not listening to that or I'm not listening to the person that's trying to tell me no It's so funny because When I was you know Raised in my son. It was very similar. It was like how do you teach him to have the confidence? He needs to be what he wants to be when he sees things that aren't right and you accept them So you have to like like in that moment to that whole parenting aspect of it. I had to change my mindset To make sure that I was showing him how to be confidently whoever he was you guys may have heard me use the phrase train I'm how to treat you That is like it's not it's that that phrase was very just authentically created when I finally realized who I am It wasn't because I'm trying to be somebody and you will respect me a certain way It was more so I finally have what it takes to respect myself this way And I'm gonna give you your respect and all I ask is the same every turn And so I'm training you how to be better at treating people the way I want to be treated and out the way I'm gonna give you what I'm gonna give you in return And so when you're talking about like oftentimes you don't necessarily see that people are paying attention It reminded me my son's when he was in college He was trying to figure out what he wanted to do with the rest of his life and didn't want his mom who worked in sports to influence that And I'm like I can help you.  I was reading something the other day and In my role with sales black women are the most underrepresented in in that industry and in that department and so you think of a male-dominated space and Then you take another layer of the onion and it's still You know even even less than in a sense and so I think about it how many how many black women are looking at a job application and They're reluctant to apply Because they haven't connected dots of maybe someone who's in that role and and so that's where your story is that you shared of You know connecting the dots and having someone that you can relate to and that inspires you is so critical because There's a lot of people not taking the leap of faith because they don't think they have a place here but I'll also add to that Brianna also Feeling empowered because even in this circle. I know that there have been times where I'll use valeria as an example Well, I've had conversations with valeria and I'm like I don't think I can do that because I'm black. I'm this I'm that whatever and Valeria is like no Look yourself in the mirror.  This is who you are You possess all of the qualifications and you in the words of Beyonce. Hey me But you deserve all of those things and you don't have to limit yourself or make yourself small Because you're afraid that you're going to be perceived as too big So being mindful of that and putting people in your circle who are able to speak life and empower you in that sense Goes a very very long way when you talk about how do you overcome those adversities? And even the one thing I will say is oftentimes when you're in a position to your point Valeria like I've been here as long as I have and there's still so much learning to do And so you never really arrived like I don't I don't believe there's it here doesn't exist You're always like you just constantly chopping wood and trying to get there and But you oftentimes need somebody look over the handsome will be like am I doing it right am I heading the right direction? But it's really like it's really Fulfilling to be able to have those conversations and to have those people I will tell you I never forget when when Amy took over the organization I was so excited because I was like it is a woman like we got like I told everybody with ears They're like we know we can see it But it was like also very motivating also very encouraging to see someone and and she took it and she owned it and she Had to be Kind of like a lot of the stuff that many of us are talking about she was a minority woman in that room And so that adversity is like like far-reaching and I think I learned a lot from her Seeing her start to where she is today in that level of confidence that she has in the position and the power that she holds And I think that's I think that's something we can all do regardless of the level or how long we've been within the organization Like we can all own those things. I Guess what if you're talking to a young lady What that, you know, what what advice are you giving her you're talking to young Valeria who you know Doesn't have this round table conversation to listen to inspiring stories like what advice are you giving her be yourself and Just love that authenticity When I showed up in the room and applied for many jobs I showed up representing something that I thought was going to get the job or Someone that I thought was going to be accepted and doors shut in my face And before I even reach for the handle You know like the the commercial with the state farm But it wasn't until and I'll say this Not until I actually got into sport that I started to be Recognized and appreciated and valued and started to receive these opportunities because it took that long I think I had been out of law school almost ten years It took that long for me to realize Valeria show up as Valeria and whoever cannot receive Valeria It's not meant to be in Valeria space And so the minute I realized that I was enough and I appreciated my backgrounds my adversity my obstacles Whatever I brought to the table even if I didn't have a seat at the table that that was enough for me And so what I would tell my younger self is just be okay with who you are Love that person and and bet on her take risks after risk and just continue to be authentic Well, I was gonna say I would probably tell little jahari All the things I would probably tell a little jahari girl do not be afraid do not be afraid like I can recall So many times That I have walked away from opportunities because of fear because I left fear creep into my head and Get all in there and do all the things And I'm so thankful and fortunate that I did not let that happen Walking into this opportunity with the Titans, but I would probably tell her do not be afraid do not Think that you do not deserve to be in these spaces in these rooms on these platforms in these Orbits all the things like don't be afraid and to take risk I think sometimes as as women and especially black women we are We are position or told that we're supposed to get in one lane and stick to that lane and When things start opening and start happening for us we start to question like well, wait a minute I'm the only one in that lane So is this really for me and I think we just we we get comfortable in thinking that we're supposed to remain low-key And we we have to get out of our own heads with that I would agree to Both of which what you're saying.  You know Am I gonna be today and how much what percent is that gonna be and it's just like who cares like I would This is who you are right and it's okay exactly and there would be times where when when people got to know me They're like, oh, we thought you were super reserved. I'm like, I wish you would see me at home Because that's that's far from the truth And I think I just had to like show up for myself a hundred percent and not 50 not 75 and and not just around The the ladies in the office or or maybe some of the guys that I got close with like show everybody your colors You know do it respectfully of course, but like don't be afraid to just be a hundred percent Brianna So yeah, if I could rewind I would be like just do it girl. Is that train? I'm how to treat you, right? Authentically you I mean that's what and I and the the like pivoting just a little bit. This is great Right, we're having this conversation and we can all identify with something that we're all talking about but in order to move The needle this is Black History Month. We are talking about being authentically who we are But the work doesn't just start and end at this table with these people When you're thinking about having conversations that are difficult whether it be with co-workers members of the community When you're talking to you know ticket holders like oftentimes there is whether it be microaggressions or there are times Where the conversations turn difficult talk a little bit about navigating that like in a way That's a respectful but being true to who you are in the hiding behind Being afraid to have those difficult conversations. I Mean I'll start I think you know I saw a lot of in my role I've spent a lot of time working on the new stadium and talking to community members about the new stadium And what that means and how it could be a great impact And through a lot of those conversations, of course, you know, there are a lot of Disparities in our city whether it's housing education you name it Transportation all the things and especially when you start to talk about the effects for Black and brown people and so there are a lot of tough conversations that I have to have and You know, I when I started with the Titans I came in I drank all the Kool-Aid blew me up y'all. Yes two-tone all the way But I think you know when you talk about having hard conversations and being realistic and being Genuine and really trying to think about What that means for the people outside of these four walls like people who have never gone to a Titans game or who have never experienced What it's like to work for NFL franchise team. I really had to think about In my role in my position How can I be of service to someone else who has no affiliation with the Titans? Regardless if they come to a game or not, how can I use my role to move that needle forward? How can I use my role to have a greater impact but to really connect people to genuinely what we stand for as an organization? And that's tough because when you are a minority and you work in spaces like we do Oftentimes people look at us like Yeah, whatever like, you know, and so you have to really find the space of like no Let me connect you to the good things that we're doing here as an organization. Let me let me really Inform you educate you Let me try my best to connect you with some of the things that we are happening that we are doing from a perspective of we genuinely want to show up for our communities But I also on the flip side of that I also recognize That I can't sit silent at the table when I'm in these rooms with our senior leadership And I'm in the room with other department heads or just our folks who do all the things that they do I have to make sure that I'm using my voice and speaking on behalf of you know of the communities that I serve and Really using that as a privilege and considering that to be a privilege and Thinking about all of the ways that we show up in the community How can I help us do more and be more? And so, you know, it's a it's a heavy a heavy heavy load to bear However, I know that we've all been put here to really think about like the next black lawyer that we can hire the Next, you know, how can we open up these floodgates? How can we open up doors and pave ways for? For us to show up for black and brown communities in a more impactful way Yeah, and those conversations can be challenging be challenging They can be you know, they can force you to think beyond just yourself I'll I've had I've had to have conversations and then I would go home and say I wish I would have said it This way, you know, but in that not being afraid to go back and say Hey, I know we talked about this two days ago, but no, let me text you right now Let me let me let me put this on your radar so we can revisit because I think that's the hard part too And I think having a certain level of comfort, right? It's it's as long as it's coming from the right place. Yes Is that's very important because you can't I've always believed that if I if I'm angry when I try to express something to you All you hear is my anger So how do I have that conversation with you so that you can hear the message and not the delivery of the message? And I was even having a conversation in my office with two white co-workers And they were asking me things and because I know that they were coming from the place of understanding Oftentimes I would you know, I asked the last panel the last round table Participants does it sometimes feel like it's too much. It's too.   Yes You've got other areas, too, you know, right now it is challenging and You both mentioned it is like the delivery and sometimes, you know You have to realize there are folks that may not have the same perceptions and experiences and Immediately you come in attack mode and you're like why but then also there was a time earlier in my career where I Was enabling it by not speaking up and I got to a point recently where I was like I'm gonna speak up because I'm I'm then becoming part of the problem And it's the way you deliver it and it's maybe like hey what you said upset me or maybe how I came off was aggressive or Attacking and I apologize for that but let me explain Why and maybe you can explain what your initial thought was and it's just being able to Own up and say let's communicate about whatever it is that maybe we both felt triggered by for lack of a better word and it's tough sometimes I you know, I look around me and there's only one of me and I Feel like I'm gonna own a lonely island, but then I remember like okay if there becomes an opportunity for me to connect I'm gonna advocate for that person and I'll be honest. I look around and say, you know We need some diversity because a lot of times that's gonna help us grow to where we're getting You know wanting to go and and the lack thereof is just slowing down the process So until we can start changing things and and growing in that nature. We're gonna stay stagnant. I jokingly Say this all the time because I am I'm biracial, so I'm Hispanic I'm like mm-hmm. I'm trading myself. I'm going over to the Hispanic delegation now I'm going over here to this side, but but in those moments where I get frustrated and I'm over it I think it goes back to remembering my commitment and You know, sometimes you kind of lay in the bed and you're like I gotta get up again and do this But I made this commitment and I'm a community advocate and I'm all about community. I'm for the people I am for the people and so look at yourself in the mirror and say you are for the people Don't forget it. So just having those moments of reminding myself But also extending grace to myself because we're also not monoliths So, you know and extending grace to others because you if we often only think about them coming from a hurtful place We respond with hurt.  How can I help? I walk away better and that person walks away, and so, you know, it's it's that responsibility We all have not just as black women, but just as humans like we have a responsibility to each other to help each other grow So I just Again, I'm grateful for all of you This just warms my heart to be able to be here with Black ladies with ladies.  We were the minority Right. Yeah. And now there is a voice. There is There's sisterhood. There's like Shannon talked about the professional women's network and she talked about the the black ERG and Having those opportunities to grow together just mean so much. So thank you so much for participating Yeah


Thanks everybody for coming. I'll go straight into it. Even though we've seen quite a bit of growth in Africa in the last few decades, or in the last decade perhaps, there's no doubt that there's a comparatively limited industrial base. There's also relatively limited industrial diversity in Africa today in sub-Saharan Africa. Of course, we know, and this is the topic of this session, there's a literature that actually a set of models that predate modern neoclassical growth models. And these are sort of kick-started by Arthur Lewis, not necessarily Martin Rebellion's favorite economist, apparently. But I and I imagine my other co-presenters today will also use these models. So within this literature on dual economy, models, theory, and empirics, there's a sort of natural lineup of topics that you could look at. Are there differences between sectors in terms of their productivity growth, or their productivity level, are there factor product differences, marginal product of labor differences, or marginal product of capital differences? Of course, these two are linked. So the tradition has been to kind of look at what the sectoral differences are in these magnitudes, and then to do kind of counterfactual analyses. What would happen if Malawi had the TFP level of the United States? Not necessarily always very meaningful, but that's not for me to judge. Here's some of the authors. So what's new in our analysis is really questioning the production technology. Is the production technology really the same in all these countries if we just look at one sector? So is the shape of the production function for an Ethiopian tech farmer, is that production function the same as for a Kansas sorghum farmer? Or in the manufacturing sector, do Sri Lankan garment firms really have the same shape of production function as the German car plant? And part of this research will show that technological heterogeneity doesn't change the qualitative implications of productivity improvements, but it has very significant impact on the quantitative implications, and especially the speed of structural change. So apologies if this sounds a bit grand, but this is part of my research program I have. And please also apologize. I apologize to you for pretending that these are very important papers. You will never have heard of any of these. And of course, there are many other people working in this area, so obviously the two co-presenters today. So what's really going on in this literature? First of all, we looked at agriculture. So this is also together with Francis Thiel. We looked at agriculture and we wanted to see whether we can model agriculture in a way that reflects this diversity that has been mentioned from Hayami and Ratsan in the 1960s onwards, where people always say maybe we should model the production technology to be different across countries. That's what we did in this paper. Then there's another paper which has been around for a long time, and that's why I just name it here as the paper with a title that's nowhere near as funky as the No Mangoes in the Tundra paper, and that's on manufacturing. And here the idea is to show that there are technology differences across countries, and these are a function of the specialization that countries undergo in terms of their manufacturing and their export arrangements. This paper here is published and indicates how we really are making a mistake if we just look at aggregate economy data. And I think that's something quite popular these days. So many of you will be aware of the work by Danny Roderick, including with Margaret MacMillan, but he recently published a paper on the QGE on convergence in manufacturing. So this idea of going away from the aggregate economy data and going more towards sector-level data, given that now a lot of this is available, this is something that I'm very sympathetic to. This paper on agricultural technology and development will be mentioned more in due course. So what am I doing in the present presentation? Well, first of all, this is work in progress, but I'm trying to revisit lots of these theories looking at what drives growth in an empirical dual economy model, but accounting for this notion of technology heterogeneity. So rather than take you through the paper, which is obviously on the website, I'm going to use most of my remaining 15 minutes to try and sell you two ideas. And those two ideas are technology heterogeneity and then how we could probably model productivity. So technology is really the shape of the production function. So if we have a cop-dog's production function, those are just the coefficients on the factor inputs, most simply capital and labor, for instance. Now the radical, the new idea here is that different countries have different technologies. As to where those might come from, I think we can explain quite well in the agricultural context, where we have these agroclamatic requirements. You can't just plant mangoes in the tundra. You need to take into account these external factors, and they will probably affect what you plant and what sort of agriculture you engage in. But there's a host of other reasons why we think technology could be different in agriculture. A question mark is very important here when we're saying, well, if countries have different production functions, is that set in stone? And is that something we need to work around? Or is that subject to change? And this is an important question that so far we haven't really addressed. Then we have productivity, the manner from heaven, or the endogenously created productivity that drives technical progress, that drives growth to a certain extent, and that's the height of the production function. So I just want to make really this distinction between technical progress that a country comes up with, and then spillovers. So we're all standing on the shoulders of giants, so any technical progress that's developed in Silicon Valley is the product of other technical innovation that has taken place either there or in India. I'm saying India because a lot of Indians these days work in Silicon Valley. So perhaps this distinction is very fuzzy, but I just want to emphasize that what we often measure as country-specific productivity growth is really an amalgamate of what countries have come up with themselves and other ideas that spill over. How can you improve technical innovation, or technical progress in your country? You can invest in R&D and carry out efforts to improve innovation. But you could also try and capture more of these ideas that come over from elsewhere, absorptive capacity. So for instance, in the US, these are high, I forget the exact title, but the visas for highly skilled individuals, there are means and ways of capturing ideas that are from elsewhere, from outside the country. So productivity has a global element. There's global technological progress. There's a local element, which means a regional element perhaps, and then country-specific. And of course, whenever we have productivity comes into our marginal product of labor calculation. So very simple graphs to illustrate. These two countries have the same shape of the production function, a very simple one just in labor, because we can then present it in this two-dimensional space. But as you see, they have the same technology, they have the same shape of the production function, but different productivities. So the height of the production function differs. In contrast, these two countries have different technologies. This is a linear technology, and this is a curvilinear technology, but they're basically similar in productivity. So I'm going to go a little bit into this paper, which is with my co-author Dietrich Walroth, where we start out with an empirical motivation. We're looking at agricultural production in 128 countries, and we allow this production function to have different coefficients on the inputs. Now, inputs are labor, measure for capital stock, which is tractors, and then we have fertilizer, land, livestock, and over a very long time horizon. And what we observe if we look at the implied labor coefficient, which is our main technology coefficient in the later theoretical section, that there's certain kind of correlations between what share of a country's arable land is in which climate zone, and what this coefficient is, on average, across a total of 128 countries. So countries in the more equatorial and equatorial and highland zones seem to have higher labor coefficients than those in the temperate or arid and cold climate zones. And just as a test, whether we're just capturing something slightly different here, maybe income, there's a similar pattern here, although the lower middle and income countries are clearly not conforming to this simple relationship. So we're not talking about anything causal or so, but this is an observation. So maybe there's something systematic about labor coefficients. So what would happen if we start out with a labor share in agriculture of 80% and then we have different sizes of productivity shocks? A, what would happen to the labor share if we calibrated our model to the case of South Korea? So you can see when you have a higher labor coefficient, 0.55, then your agriculture labor share will decline much slower than if you have a smaller labor coefficient. And in return, what does that do to real output per capita? The lower coefficient countries can basically grow much faster than the higher coefficient ones. So just to illustrate that more, we measured the improvements that we identified in South Korea. Arguably the single biggest success story in the 1950s and 60s, South Korea was at the same level as Ghana in terms of income per capita. So they have seen a 270% increase in total factor productivity, 250% increase in wages, and an 80% increase in population. So these are then the counterfactuals. If we look at these three types of coefficient, high labor coefficient, intermediate low. So you can see starting from 80% agricultural labor share, all of them have dramatically reduced their labor share in agriculture, but there are tangible differences between these three cases. And perhaps one of the most striking insights is the labor productivity, which is partly due to the amount of labor in the sector, but also the output increase. So we have three times more output per worker in agriculture in the low coefficient than in the high labor coefficient case. And this has very tangible impacts on real income per capita. So what could you take out from this paper? What's the story? Maybe some regions with high labor, maybe they've actually done quite well in terms of getting productivity increases. So maybe there's not such a barrier to productivity improvement in these countries than we previously thought. But the pessimistic view is that if you have a high labor coefficient, then structural change is really slowed down dramatically as compared to a low coefficient case. So if this is really structural, if countries in, say, the equatorial regions of the Earth, if their agricultural productivity is such that they have a, sorry, their agricultural technology is such that they have a high labor coefficient, then it will take them a long time to achieve something as career, even if they had exactly the same shocks introduced in the model. OK, so I've got five more minutes now. So I'm going to introduce an alternative set up which has to do with how to model productivity. This is a lot of algebra. But what do I really want to indicate? So productivity is something unobservable. Let's pretend all of you are employed as typists. No, actually, you're writing down every single word I say. What happens if I turn the light off? Well, maybe some of you really have some kind of night vision goggles, and they can still write. But others can't. So what does that mean? They're unobserved global shocks, me turning the lights off, but they have heterogeneous impacts. Think of a global oil shock. It probably has a different impact on different countries, depending on whether they're exporters, net of oil, or importers of oil. But then there's also more regional localized effects. So if Robert suddenly starts talking to Maggie really loudly, maybe that part of the room, the people around them, they're kind of distorted. They can't really pick up on what I'm saying. So if I'm monitoring the productivity, the output, the accuracy, and how much you have understood of what I've been saying, or how much you've written down, then probably those guys over here, they're not affected. But these guys over there are affected. So what's this phenomenon called? It's called cross-section dependence. Just the idea that if you're in Canada, what goes on in the United States is probably really important for your economy. Now, let me tell you something quite surprising. In cross-country empirical analysis, that's not taken into account. There's no taking account for the fact, where are you within the sort of global space, if you think in a geographical manner? Where are you in the room? Are you sitting over with Justin, or are you sitting with Robert in terms of your relationship to other people? So we're modeling this in our papers using common factors. And there's strong ones, which would mean there's global shocks, and they have a different impact on different countries. And then there's weak ones. The weak ones are these localized effects, where they really just affect some of the people in the room. And then we use some methods to, even though these are unobservable, these factors, given that we have time series data for a lot of countries over 30, 40 years, we can actually account for them. We can kind of blend them out, which is quite amazing, and there's a substantial literature on this. So what do we do in this paper? Three minutes. So we use the same data as in the previous paper, which is quite a unique World Bank data set, Kregor, Don Larson, Rita Butzer, and Jan Mundlach. And this is investment series for agriculture and manufacturing. So the agriculture bit is really amazing. So that's why you can then directly compare your sectoral production functions. We have 40 countries over a 30-year time horizon. I'm not going to go into great detail. Basically, these heterogeneous technology estimates using these common factor frameworks give you, let's say, these technology coefficients on capital, and these would be the implied labor coefficients. And these are the ones that we're using for the later analysis. So first of all, we can see that sectoral TFP growth differences are actually not that substantial. So if these are the means, the robust means, this would be 2.4% per annum in manufacturing, 2.3% in agriculture. This is quite a different result from what the seminal paper in this literature is perhaps Martin and Mitra 2002, and they found that agriculture had higher total factor productivity growth. Then we can have a look at sectoral TFP levels. So these are different estimators for agriculture. These are different ones for manufacturing. The lower ones are always the ones that are favored by theory and residual diagnostics. But what I want you to look at is just the standard deviation. So we can see if we use a standard way of measuring TFP levels by looking at the intercepts of a production function. We get a very, very high variation. You can also see the range is quite substantial. More than three times the variation that you get if you use one of these heterogeneous parameter estimators. And similarly, manufacturing half the variation. So what does that mean? People have thought these differences in TFP levels and the differences in TFP growth rates, they are everything. They matter the most when we look at whether this is aggregate economy data or sector level data. But what our research suggests is that, well, you're really leaving out this guy here, this beta I.  And then in terms of the marginal factor products, we can show different assumptions lead to different outcomes. Perhaps this is a more interesting graph. This gives you the relative marginal product of labor between manufacturing and agriculture. So if these were the same, then this country does not seem to have any distortions. There's no misallocation of labor. If you have a much higher value in agriculture, then that means more of these people should be in manufacturing. They should be shifted. But clearly, there's some kind of barrier. There's some structural problem why they cannot shift into agriculture. And what these numbers mean are these other ratios. So the marginal product of labor in Madagascar in manufacturing is 3.6 times that in agriculture. Now, these numbers might not mean very much to you. But again, what do we see? These numbers are very, very modest compared to what you get in a model where you do not, where you assume everybody has the same technology, be it in agriculture or be it in manufacturing. So to summarize, this is tentative results, the ones that are presented towards the end because we made a change to the estimation. So things will inevitably change. But what's quite clear is that this idea of technological heterogeneity, different production functions across different countries, not just across sectors, has a very significant impact on measuring these kind of sources of growth structural change. There's not much evidence for higher TFP level in agriculture. Again, that's speaking to Martin and Mitra. And this duality, this massive, the ratio of marginal product of labor between manufacturing and agriculture seems substantially reduced here.  But some of the things that I didn't have too much time into discussing here would be how do these results really match with what was there in the literature already? And perhaps also motivate a bit more, why do we think there could be technological heterogeneity, bring up some theoretical, like some proper economic theory, and then perhaps also compare the empirical results with some results from a calibration exercise? Thanks very much.


As still in Ogwen State, electorates have lamented over disruption of electoral exercise as some polling units at Shagamu Ikberu, Kenner area of Ogwen East, Senatoria district of the state. It was observed that a ballad box was destroyed by the suspected hoodlums and sporadic shootings in Ikberu, Remotown, of the Kenner Luka government when hoodlums suspected to be political thugs snatched away two ballad boxes at polling unit 05403 in Ayakbami area of the town. Speaking with newsmen at the polling unit, they claimed it all resulted in chaos forcing many electorates to scamper for safety to avoid being hit by stray bullets. Almost 50 of them, I have pictures, the ballad boxes, the ballad papers and the box six they burnt it down and they ran away. So as I was living there, they got a call that along Isotte, they have about four or five polling units along that road. So about two of the polling units have been burnt down and with all the ballad boxes burnt. And they used the same method of being on a bike, they said about 50 of them, that Isotte. And one other school, Wesley's school, along that Ujumele too, they've got it burnt. So I think they are just selecting places they are visiting to carry the boxes out to burn it down and they will leave the place. There wasn't much on ground, it's just based on wrong information. Some people thought there was some kind of chaos or problem at the polling unit. But unfortunately it's just a false information. Everything is called back to normalcy now. So people are done voting already. Maybe some people just came around wanted to disrupt the election process but thanks to God the police came on time and normalcy was returned.