Welcome to Think Tech on Spectrum OC16, Hawaii's weekly newscast on things that matter to tech and Hawaii. I'm Jay Fidel. And I'm Elise Anderson. In our show this time we'll attend a talk on deep sea mining by visiting professor Philomene Verlon at the Science Cafe. She's an oceanographer specializing in the biogeochemistry and ecology of deep sea mining and also a lawyer specializing in the law of the sea. The Science Cafe, part of the Hawaii Academy of Science, celebrated its 10-year anniversary with a talk by Philomene Verlon, a visiting colleague at the Department of Oceanography in the School of Ocean and Earth Science, SOEST, at UH Manoa. Dr. Verlon is an oceanographer specializing in the biogeochemistry and ecology of deep sea mining of ferromagnese nodules and crusts. She took her PhD at Imperial College in London. In her work she has done some 24 ocean research voyages. I'm coming up to number 25 in two weeks. Okay, well now you're on the surface on these voyages. You can't go down two miles to look at the nodules. Oh, yes, you can. Oh, can you? Oh, how do you do that? Oh, yes, you can. Unfortunately, we no longer at this university have the submarine capacity to do this. We used to. And the U.S. generally doesn't have a great deal of submarine research capacity anymore. We do still have our wonderful Alvin, which I believe has just been reconfigured to go down to 4,500 meters. But other countries, unfortunately, are doing much better than we are at this. And but I was lucky when we still had the two Pisces subs here to do my two Pisces. I've seen them. Yeah. They were at Sand Island and Snug Harbor and Sand Island University. Yeah, they're now there. Well, the last time I saw them, they were out of Makapu at the point there, just where Makai has its pier. Yeah, Makai pier. Yeah. The, it's always really lucky. I got to do all of my master's work with the two Pisces on cross seam out, which has a huge ferro manganese cross resource, in fact, and it's just south of the big island. And but the Pisces were never able to go any deeper than 2000 meters, which is already pretty deep. But not deep enough to look at these men. No. Okay. No, no, no. She's also a lawyer specializing in the law of the sea. She assists international public and private entities in the interface between marine science and the law of the sea to achieve responsible deep sea mining. I ran away to sea later. Why did you do that? Well, the sort of law I was doing was international trade based in Europe, the former treaty of Rome. I became rather frustrated with the direction that was taking and revisited my career decisions when my law firm, which was completely wonderful, offered me a partnership and thought that I would actually like to return to my first love, which was marine science, which I did. But now it's come a combination, isn't it? Completely. It could not have been more useful to still have that law degree. Can you describe that connection for me, the combination and how it works for you? Yes, with pleasure, because I hope it might inspire other people when they want to revisit their careers that they don't need to throw away an entire degree. They might make it work for them. Marine science is governed by an international treaty called the law of the sea convention. And marine science, and in fact, all marine activities or activities on land, which is not very well known, that affect the marine environment is governed by this treaty. So those of you who are thinking about carbon dioxide emissions, for example, yes, it is covered and it is being comprehensively ignored by the international community. Deep sea mining is an emerging marine industry with huge prospects, competition and contention. The technological, scientific, environmental, social, industrial, political, economic and legal challenges that must be addressed to make it profitable, however, are very challenging. These nodules are in areas beyond national jurisdiction. The most important resources, in fact, not very far away from here at all. You have Hawaii here and Mexico there. We have two fracture zones called the Clarion Clipperton Fracture Zone, and the most interesting resource is right there, but it is in international waters, which means that no single country can go and recover them without first seeking permission from an authority that is international as well that has been set up to govern the exploration and the exploitation of these resources. What's the name of that authority? It is called the International Seabed Authority and it is headquartered in Kingston, Jamaica. It has 167 countries plus the European Union that are party to the law of the sea convention and being party to the convention makes them also members of the authority. So anything you do out there in international waters with regard to nodules means the approval of 167 countries plus the EU. The US is not a party to the law of the sea convention. This is a sad thing. The US has, however, signed one part of one of the amending treaties to the law of the sea convention, but it has not ratified that signature. The countries out there have to get special permission from the International Seabed Authority to go out there and they're given, usually it ends up being a 75,000 square kilometer area. Yeah, it's bigger but then it gets legally weird and you guys don't want to hear about that. But it ends up with about 75,000 square kilometers that they can then go and then according to all the criteria that are set by the authority under the auspices of the law of the sea convention they can do the resource assessment. They have to do a huge amount of research simply to establish environmental baseline so that when they start mining. As a condition of the license. Oh it's not only is it a mega condition it is very, very, very closely observed. Every year there has to be a complete report sent to the ISA. I've seen some of these, they're like this. This costs an enormous amount of money but for all of this a resource assessment and then towards the end of the exploration it's possible to start doing a bit of tech development. So research assessment, environmental baseline and tech development. That means equipment. That means equipment but that also means videos. That means everything that goes on down there is imaged. What would happen? What would the seabed authority do? If China decided it wanted sort of the way it's handled the South China Seas, right?  Well I don't know what the seabed authority would do but we have in the law of the sea convention an extensive set of chapters that talk about dispute resolution and it has also set up a specialized tribunal called the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea. It also has within that context a specialized seabed disputes tribunal and that is where the situation would be brought. Whether it be brought by the authority or by other countries that might find that this is problematic from their own point of view is an open point, an open question but that is where it would be taken in the first instance to have the international court that has been set up specifically to deal with these subjects. The judges are based in Hamburg and they're elected for I believe, anyway some sort of term and they're elected by the members of the parties. Suppose they found that China had willfully violated the rules of the seabed authority. What would they be able to do? A court as such can do nothing. It can simply state whether or not this is or is not consistent with the obligations under the law of the sea convention and how that is that these judgments are then enforced again because it is an international judgment by the countries in various ways. There are sanctions by there are various responses that might be for example one potential response. What generally tends to happen is a lot of in the corridor type discussion afterwards. Dr. Verlans talk described the deep sea metal bearing mineral deposits that are of greatest interest to the industry. Ferromanganese nodules, cobalt crusts and polymetallic sulfides found on the ocean floor 4500 meters below sea level southeast of Hawaii and their distinctive biogeophysical marine environments. She presented an overview of the industrial interest in these resources, the extraction technologies and the technical environmental and regulatory issues with emphasis on the Pacific Islands. When I decided to go back and become completely qualified in oceanography, which meant to go up to the PhD level, I became really really interested in deep sea manganese crusts and nodules. Now these are ocean precipitates that are found in the deep sea. They drop to the bottom. Yes, I'm sorry. Yes, absolutely. They form in situ in their place around little with the case of nodules. They form around little nuclei like shark's teeth, for example, and the cross-form on sea mounts. But the principle is the same. They need a hard surface to form on. I became really, really interested in those. And with regard to the nodules, the most interesting resource of nodules, which is for their metal content. Ferromanganese. In fact, manganese is probably the least interesting of the metals. The iron is even less interesting. The most interesting content for the nodules are copper, cobalt, nickel, and zinc and some molybdenum. And right now cobalt is the one that is of particular interest because of its huge use in all of our electronic devices that everyone has to have. And it is also a strategic metal. And it is also very difficult to find on land in a context where you can have security of supply that is also environmentally and socially licensed. What is a strategic metal? What is this? A strategic metal, anything used in any kind of defense purpose. Yes, yes, yes. The nodule forming mechanism is, in that sense, quite ubiquitous. But the ones that form with this particular type of metal composition, though they're not very, very found ubiquitously. You've got this major resource here in the Clare and Clipperton zone. You've got another huge resource in the Central Indian Ocean basin. You've got a few in the Atlantic Ocean. You've got quite a few, but smaller resources in the South Pacific. But no, the ones that are really attractive, the Goldilocks nodules, if you want to call them like that. Yes, yes, yes. There's not that many places in the world. Our background over there, is that Ferromanganese nodules? Those are Ferromanganese nodules. And they are, in fact, I believe quite a representative field of what you can find in the Clare and Clipperton zone. And that is actually quite a rich coverage of nodules. And those, the blue objects there, the rock-looking objects, those are the nodules? Those are the nodules. And you must note, because this is very important when you look at the environmental consequences of removing them, those nodules are resting on sediments. And what you have there is a hard sub, bottom, a hard substrate, which is the nodule, on a soft substrate, which is the sediments. And one of the two issues that are environmentally of concern, and which have really, really interesting technical possibilities, is to remove those nodules in such a way that you do not leave pure sediments behind, because in the deep sea there are two types of organisms in this particular context. There are the ones that like to live on sediments, and the ones that like to live on nodules, and the two do not mix. So if you remove all the nodules, all the organisms that like to live on nodules have no place to go back to. So one of the interesting technical challenges in deep sea mining is to design a mining system that either leaves either nodules behind or types of nodules that, well, no, actually, that it does anyway, that's the problem, that's one other problem to work with, but I'll give you that one in a minute, either leaves nodules behind or substitutes for the nodules, or mines in such a way that you leave little strips with nodules on the seafloor. And all of this is a technical question and it's also a mining approach question, because you could, for example, design a miner that will suction up the nodules at one end. Meaning a machine. Exactly. Yeah, a mining, yes, thank you. And then leaves others behind as you collect them from one end and send them up to the top of the ship.  For example, or there are several different ways you can go about it. Now, the other major environmental problem, remember the sediments? Well, you're going to generate a big cloud of sediment as you're going over the seafloor. This is also not a good idea because you want to minimize that sediment if you possibly can, because there are out there filter feeders who need quite clear water in order to be able to filter their food out of the water. Now, if you clog up those filters, you know that from your dryer you've got issues where you've got the same thing in the deep sea. So another really, really interesting technical challenge is to design your mining vehicle so that it generates the least amount of sediment. And another area that is really important and that we need to have a lot more information on is to find that you will generate some form of sediment, but how far does that cloud go? And how thick is it going to be? And how quickly will it attenuate with distance? And all of this requires a lot of in situ experimentation, like also deciding what would be the best way to mine to leave some form of hard substrate behind. You also need in situ experimentation to do some form of mimicking at least of what the mining might look like in the real world so you can start looking where the sediment plumes go. Hawaii is hugely lucky and so is the United States, because the entire Hawaiian island archipelago and also the other areas that are associated in various ways to the United States, like Johnson-Atoll, etc. There are nodule and more importantly in this context ferromanganese crust nodules within the U.S. EEZ, the U.S. doesn't really need to go to the Clarion Clipperton zone if it wanted to have those resources available. It's got it within its own jurisdictional waters and in fact we were the first here in the U.S. and the state of Hawaii long ago to do the first environmental impact study. It was state of the art and it's still extremely good for the mining of manganese crusts and also to the certain and processing, by the way, processing. This was also going to be done in the islands. This was back in the 70s and I think it was what was then called the Minerals Management Service for the state of Hawaii. It's changed names since then. Exploration involves at this point three big elements all of which are controlled and mandated by the International Seabed Authority in these areas because this is all still in international waters. Resource assessment, in other words, how many kilos per square meter are there and how variable is this resource? Because one thing that's really interesting about manganese nodules is you can have a really rich deposit which you see here. You go a couple hundred meters to the north or to the south or to the west and it could be much less. It could also be much more and it could also be not there at all. And what keeps me going as a research scientist is that we still don't fully understand how nodules form. All these boundaries that we like to put in the sea, the sea doesn't recognize them, completely irrelevant to them, right? To anything that lives in the oceans which is another aspect of the convention. It's the only international instrument that actually does take a global view of the environment. However, your question was a little bit down the road. In international waters, in fact, it's not going to be such a huge gold mine as you might think because what was trying to be avoided was to have exactly that kind of gold rush where, again, only the highly technically sophisticated countries could go sit on a resource and take all the benefits. The benefits from that mining needs to be shared with the rest of the world. Dr. Verlan's talk was part of a film and seminar series cosponsored by the Center for Pacific Island Studies at the University of Hawaii and the Pacific Islands Development Program at East West Center. If you want to know more about the oceanography program at the School of Ocean and Earth Science at UH Manoa, check it out at sows.hawaii.edu. And now let's take a look at our ThinkTech calendar of events going forward. There's so much happening in Hawaii. Sometimes things happen under the radar and we don't hear much about them, but ThinkTech will take you there. Remember, you can watch ThinkTech on Spectrum OC16 several times every week to stay current on what's happening in government, industry, academia, and communities around the islands and the world. ThinkTech broadcasts daily talk shows live on the internet from 10 a.m. to 5 p.m. on weekdays. Then we broadcast our earlier shows all night long and on the weekends. If you missed the show or if you want to replay or share our shows, they're all archived on demand on ThinkTechHawaii.com and YouTube. The audio is on ThinkTechHawaii.com slash audio and we post podcasts of all our shows on iTunes. Visit ThinkTechHawaii.com for our weekly calendar and live streaming YouTube links or sign up on our email list to get the daily docket of our upcoming shows. ThinkTech has a high-tech green screen studio at Pioneer Plaza. If you want to join our live audience or participate in our shows, write to shows at ThinkTechHawaii.com. Give us a thumbs up on YouTube or send us a tweet at ThinkTechHI. We'd like to know how you feel about the issues and events that affect our lives together in these islands and in this country. We want to stay in touch with you and we'd like you to stay in touch with us. Let's think together. And yes, you can call in to our talk shows live. While you're watching any of our shows, you can call in to<PHONE_NUMBER> and pose a question to participate in the discussion. And now here's this week's ThinkTech commentary. Aloha, my name is Jay Fidel. I'm the CEO of ThinkTechHawaii. ThinkTech is a Hawaii nonprofit dedicated to raising public awareness about tech, energy, diversification, global affairs, and much more through digital media. We stream 35 live talk shows a week on ThinkTechHawaii.com. We upload them to YouTube and iTunes and we broadcast our top shows on community television and Spectrum OC16 cable. ThinkTech is a study in citizen journalism. The value of citizen journalism is that all the people involved become more actively engaged in a more thoughtful examination of the world around them. By this interaction we can build a more dynamic, productive community dialogue. We can become more curious, more aware, and better informed and educated and better citizens. We can separate the wheat from the chaff and raise the clarity of our collective thinking. And Lord knows we need that clarity in these difficult, divisive, and most interesting times. Now, more than ever, watch us, follow us, and like us. We're ThinkTech at ThinkTechHawaii.com. We'll be right back to wrap up this week's edition of ThinkTech, but first we want to thank our underwriters. Okay, Elise, that wraps up this week's edition of ThinkTech. Remember, you can watch ThinkTech on Spectrum OC16 several times every week. Can't get enough of it, just like Elise does. For additional times, check out OC16.tv. For lots more ThinkTech videos and for underwriting and sponsorship opportunities on ThinkTech, visit ThinkTechHawaii.com, be a guest, or a host, a producer, or an intern, and help us reach and have an impact on Hawaii. Thanks so much for being part of our ThinkTech family and for supporting our open discussion of tech, energy, diversification, and global awareness in Hawaii, and of course, the study of ancient education in Egypt. You can watch this show throughout the week and tune in next Sunday evening for our next important ThinkTech episode. I'm Jay Fiedel. And I'm Elise Anderson. Aloha, everyone.


The global experience of extreme temperatures, rising sea levels, droughts and storms have made climate change a defining issue of our time. On World Humanitarian Day, we focus on vulnerable populations that are hardest hit by the global climate emergency. Last year more than half of all new displacements worldwide were due to weather-related disasters. Millions lost their homes, access to food and water and their entire livelihoods due to worsening and more frequent natural hazards. These are climate migrants and we will be seeing many more of them in the years to come. Excerberated by a global pandemic, the impacts of climate change have further stretched the ability of frontline workers and humanitarian community as a whole to respond. The climate emergency is a race against time, one that requires an all-inclusive response from all stakeholders, governments, the profit sector, civil society, you and me. As the world marks World Humanitarian Day, we stand together with those affected by climate change, including migrants. We call for a further scaling up of emergency preparedness and resilience building and also for more work to be done in climate change adaptation and mitigation. This is a humanitarian crisis that knows no borders, a crisis that affects the entire human race and its solution will not require the participation of Minitarians, but yes, of everyone.


A fiery horse with a speed of light, a cloud of dust, and a hearty high old silver, the Lone Ranger. With his faithful Indian companion title, the daring and resourceful Masked Rider of the Plains led the fight for law and order in the early western United States. Nowhere in the pages of history can one find a greater champion of justice. Coming with us now to those thrilling days of yesteryear. From out of the past come the thundering hoofbeat of the Great Horse Silver. The Lone Ranger rides again. I'm still there. Let's go because I am still there. In what the hour before dawn, Tuttle urged Scout up the draw to the top of the bluff where the Indian ponies were bedded down and the Lone Rangers stood beside the Great Horse Silver looking down at the village in the valley. Easy Scout, easy fellow. Well done, O. It's no good, King of Subby. Thunder Cloud, not the valley. But didn't you tell him that ten few was tying to massacre his whole tribe? Ah, Thunder Cloud say he make quickie with government. Blue Creek Valley belong to Indian. Indians promise to stay in valley. Thunder Cloud, not leave. Didn't you tell him that troops were on the way from the capital? Thunder Cloud say, troops not hurt Indian. They were federal troops, he'd be right. But they're militia, raised by Canfield himself. They're his political followers. They've all been promised land in the valley after the Indians are wiped out. Hunter, say all that. They wouldn't believe you. Thunder Cloud say, governor not let Canfield hurt Indian. The governor's been recalled to Washington. Canfield's taken over in his absence. He's running everything. Thunder Cloud, not understand. No, he's made a promise and he'll keep it. He can't understand such treachery. When he's convinced of it, it will be too late. All Indians die. We can't let that happen. The troops will march through that pass to the south into the valley. Indians in trap. There's a way out through the draw you just rode. Once they're up here, the Indians can escape to the hills. Then wait too long. Unless we do something. Thunder Cloud not listen to us. Words are no use, we'll have to substitute action. How you, me, starve 500 men. I think I know of a way. Horses taught of. Horses? Yes, these Indian ponies. Only Canfield's officers are mounted. Come on, they're round up the ponies. Dye them to the opening of the draw. Then wait. The Indian ponies were driven into a compact groove near the opening of the draw. They milled around for a while and then settled down to grazing as the sun rose above the eastern rim of the valley. The Indian village woke to life. An hour later, General Canfield rode through the south pass, the militia marching behind him. As the Lone Ranger and Tahoe watched, they saw Thunder Cloud raise an American flag above his lodge. Then he and several of the older Braves started forward to meet the troops. Thunder Cloud carried a white flag. In a moment, the Lone Ranger's worst fears were realized. Canfield ordered the troops to halt. A single rifleman stepped forward, took aim at Thunder Cloud and his delegation and fired. The distance was too great for accurate shooting, a brave to the right of Thunder Cloud dropped to the ground.  Panic broke out among the Indians, and men, women and children ran toward the lodges. The troops started forward at the double. All right, let's go. The Lone Ranger and Tahoe drove the herd of Indian ponies down the draw. The draw opened into the valley between the village and the pass. And when the level ground was reached, the elves of the Indians were enough to swing the herd toward the pass and the oncoming militia. The Lone Ranger and Tahoe drove the ones stopping and shooting in the air. The troops broke ranks and ran into a scape of thundering hoofs up a herd. The Lone Ranger and Tahoe turned back to the village and pulled their mounts to a stop in front of Thunder Cloud's lodge.  Now you believe what's on the soldiers' undercloud? No, it can't be. There's no time to argue about that.  Tell them to keep moving on into the hills. Manisha! You have a few ponies headed down here. Give me 20 braves to ride them. We'll hold the mouth of the draw until the rest of your people reach the high places. That's good. Thunder God, do what mass friends say. Good. Over and out! Before Canfield could rally his troops, the Indians were moving up the draw. Twenty braves under the command of the Lone Ranger took cover just beyond the narrow opening.  They refused to attack again. The Lone Ranger and the Indians held the draw for two hours, and then they raced after Thunder Cloud and his people into the hills. Canfield took possession of the village and set up his headquarters in Thunder Cloud's lodge. The self-styled general was livid with rage at the failure of his murderous plan. How many dead? Firemen. No Indians. Twelve. Twelve. And hundreds of them escaped. All because of that mask man on the White Horse. I'm putting a price on his head. I'm offering $5,000 reward for his catch. In the days that followed, Canfield carried out his plans. He proclaimed a state of war with the Indians. He placed the territory under martial law. He ordered the militia to shoot every Indian on site. The capitals seized with excitement, and the Lone Ranger himself without his mask, and dressed as an ordinary prospector, walked the streets of the city, gauging the temper of the people. He stopped beside a man outside the post office. The man was reading a newspaper and muttering to himself. He should know better. He should know better. Who should know better? General Canfield? No stranger. Howdy Fairburn, the editor. Look at this paper. You should know Fairburn when he first came west. He had the habit of speaking the truth. Truth or not, he stuck his neck out this time. See the headline? Is this America? And what he says about Canfield and his proclaiming martial law. Don't you believe that general has exceeded his authority? That's what the way things are now. Not with the Indians out to get all our scouts. Who says they are? Canfield. And all these men who took part in the Battle of Blue Creek. The Battle of Blue Creek? Haven't you heard about that? The way the Indians attacked the militia under cover of a flag of truth. Hmm. Fairburn doesn't seem to think that's the way it happened at all. That's what I say. He's practically taken the side of the Indians. You mark my word. He'll end up before a firing squad. Is this America? Huh? I was reading the headline again. It's a good question. Firing squads. What's happened to a man's right to trial by jury? Firing squad? To trial by jury? Don't matter.  And so will that renegade who helped Thunder Cloud. That's man-span on the big white horse. You mark my words. That same afternoon, Captain Hugh McNeil rolled into the capital. His first stop was at the office of the Mountain News. And Lori, Howard Fairburn's daughter, greeted him as an old friend. Howdy. Oh, Hugh. Welcome to Mountain City. Hello, Lori. Dad? Dad? Come and see who's here. Oh, Hugh, I can't tell you how glad I am to see you. That goes for me, too. Hello, Captain. Hello, Mr. Fairburn. Is it like old times? It is. You know, I asked for this assignment just so we could have a reunion. The settlement? Not to be stationed here? That's right. We're going to have federal troops? Well, no, not exactly. You're going to have me, isn't that enough? I don't understand you. It's simple enough. The Army's sending rifles and ammunition for your militia to use. I'm here to act as a liaison officer between your General Canfield and the Regular Army. Hugh, that's terrible. Why? General Canfield. Have you met him? No, I haven't reported yet. You sound as if he was some sort of a monster. Really? Well, he seems to have done a pretty good job of putting down this Indian uprising. Oh, tell him, Dad. Tell him what he's getting into. What's wrong, Mr. Fairburn? Everything. In the first place, Canfield isn't a soldier. He's a politician. He raised his regiment by promising every recruit he'd share in the golden furs that were captured from the Indians. It's a regiment of riffraff, ruffnicks. A gunman and thieves. They've fought well. What about the engagement at Blue Creek? You can't make me believe it happened the way Canfield says it did. There was no ambush? I do believe there was. Why not, sir? Because Thunder Cloud is an honorable man for one thing. For another, it was a masked man who helped him and his people escape from the valley after the so-called battle. You're not sure it's the same one, Dad? Pleasably sure. And he wouldn't be fighting with Thunder Cloud if the chief weren't in the right. What masked man are you talking about? Oh, you know him? When was it? Five, six years ago when your troop rescued our wagon train from the soot? Yes. From the masked man who brought you to our assistance? What? Well, that was the lone ranger? And convinced this masked man is the lone ranger. Here, you. Here's the latest edition of The Mountain News. Read it. And you'll have some idea of what the situation is really like. This is the whole truth and nothing but the truth. The captain read the paper and then left to report for duty. He returned to the newspaper office at 10 o'clock that evening. Lori and her father were locking up for the night. Mr. Fairburn. Yes? How soon can you get out of town? Do you have a horse? Well, I have one out in the back, but what do you mean? What's happened? Canfield's read The Mountain News. Well, have it.  Run with gloves. Treason. Soon now he's repealing the Bill of Rights. There's to be no freedom of the person in the tent. There's no time to argue about it. Once you're in jail, there's no telling what might happen to you. I agree that the man's demented. He can be. But he has a regiment to back him up. Hey, who? Run away. Oh, yes. There's someone knocking at the back door. Could it be Canfield's men? No, they haven't left headquarters yet, and they wouldn't come to the back door. I'll see who it is. Hello, Fairburn. The masked man. Yes. Howdy, Mr. Hello, Captain. Oh, Heaven, help us come inside. Don't you realize there's a price on your head? Yes. I've been reading all about it. How did you get here without being seen? Through the back streets. It's a dark night. Where can we hide you? I haven't come here to hide. Hey, you are life's endangerment. Yes, so is yours, Fairburn. I want you to leave town with me. Hey, don't run away. You want to fight Canfield, don't you? That's what I mean. You can't do it from here. Our only chance is through Washington. You won't be allowed to use a telegraph here. Canfield has the office guarded. I've been trying to persuade him to leave. Canfield needs to arrest him. That should settle it. How can you fight if you're behind bars? Look, Laurie. I'll be all right. I'll take care of her.  They'll be here any minute. All right. I'll go with you. Good enough. Come on then. Adios. Goodbye. Goodbye. Oh, if only he can get away safely. He will. The phone ranger will take care of her. There they go. Now let's get this place locked up. I'll take you home. It's the front door. It's the militia. And Canfield with us. Where's your father, Miss Taboon? I don't know. Where is he? Left house. You have as much chance of finding him as you have of finding the masked man. You're under arrest. What for? We're aiding in a betting treason. They're going to jail, men. Why, don't any of you lay a hand on her? And you're under arrest, too, Captain. Well, you can't arrest me. I represent the United States government. We'll discuss that at your court, Marshal. All right. Take them away. The curtain falls on the first act of our lone ranger adventure. Before the next exciting scenes, please permit us to pause for just a few moments. After the lone ranger and Howard Fairbourn left Mountain City, they stopped at the well-hidden camp where Tata was waiting. Then the three men rolled down from the foothills and across the Great Plain. Early the next morning, they reached a small settlement far to the east. Fairbourn rolled into town to send a telegram and returned in a few hours with a message. Oh, man. Just listen to this. From the Secretary of the Interior, Nicklin has been relieved as Governor. New Governor Alexander Kilgore now on way to territory. Should arrive at Cheyenne today. We'll travel south by stage. Suggests contacting him at Capitol and making formal charges against Canfield on arrival. This couldn't be better. Kilgore's a good man. Uh, you know him? By repetitions? Well, what's the matter? Canfield must have this news already. Yes, I suppose so. It won't suit him at all to have a new Governor taking over. He wants the job himself. You'll never get it now. Unless something happens to Kilgore at the dangerous trail through the hills in Cheyenne to the Capitol. Canfield wouldn't dare. He's already defying the Constitution of the United States. Not to mention a few government treaties. What's a hold up on a murder? That's another crime the Indians will answer for. Yes, it's true. He could do it. I think you'd better have a talk with a new Governor before Canfield and his men have a chance to reach him. Come on, Tonto, let's get settled now. You're hitting knobs. The Cheyenne Trail as fast as we can make it. Two days later, the Long Ranger, Tonto and Fairburn were standing beside their forces on a high ridge. Below them, they could see the Cheyenne Trail for miles, twisting and turning up a wooded slope. The masked man was studying a small cloud of dust near the foot of the ridge through his binoculars. That's a stage, all right. Get not to get up here for another hour. Well, stop the stage, get aboard, and you'll fall with my horse. Maybe you ride all the way to Capitol. It depends on whether the Governor believes me or not. Tonto, take the glasses. This side of the hairpin curve about half the way up. What do you see? There are men there. Indians? They look like Indians, but Tonto see horse and they're brained on hip. That's not Indian horse. Confused men, dressed up like Indians. Yes, I think so. Do we have time to get down below the curve? You wait here, Fairburn. We need your horse. You go to stop the stage before he gets to the curve. We can. Easy said, big fella. You'll be able to see how we make out. Here's the reins. Thanks. Tonto show best way through trees.  The grade was steep and the trail was narrow. The coach was traveling slowly, but even so, it swayed from side to side, and the guard was holding on. When the coach rounded the bend and the two men rode out on the trail, he was unable to go for his gun. Rain up. I got it covered. No chance for me to get a beat on him. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah.  What's the matter? It looks like a hold up, Governor. You can call it that if you want to. I'm not arguing. I got my hands up. But you're making a mistake. We're not carrying any gold. I'm not interested in gold. Step out of the coach, Governor. What for? Better do as he says, Governor. There's a prize on this man's head. He's a desperate character. I have very little money on me. You're coming with us, Governor. With you? Get mounted, please. Do you realize who I am? Yes, Governor. I must ask you to hurry. Very well. Oh, now, steady. All right. Get your coach started. Yeah. Lead the way, fellow. The governor spent that night in the mountain valley where Thunder Cloud had led his people. And as they sat around the campfire, he listened to the old chief to fair burn and the lone ranger. His anger at being taken prisoner seeped away, but he found it hard to believe the facts that were laid before him. This is your side of the story. Before I can reach any decision, I'll have to hear Canfield's. Will you let me leave now? Canfield will deny everything we've told you. That's right. And if you believe him, he won't live long, Governor. There were men on the trail waiting to kill you. The only men I saw were you and your Indian friend. Will you let me go? We haven't convinced you. I'm afraid not. Will you give us a chance to prove our case, Governor? How can you do that? Governor, what do you think would happen to Fair Burn and me if we gave ourselves up? You'd be given a fair trial? No, Governor. No. That good deal and the masked man would be shot. What do you think would happen to Thunder Cloud and the members of his council if they rode into the capital under a flag of truce? They'd be perfectly safe. Governor, would you ride with us to the capital tomorrow morning? Well, of course. Would you conceal your real identity? Conceal my identity? Yes.  Would you wear buckskins or let Canfield will think you're an Indian? That he has no reason to be afraid. Would you give him a chance to convict himself? Yes, I will.  You'll carry no weapons? No, none. Then there's no danger? We'll see, Governor. We'll start for the capital as soon as possible. We must get there just as long as possible. That same night, long after midnight the door of Captain McNeil's cell opened and the captain jumped up from the wooden bench where he had been trying to sleep. Who's there? It's me, Sergeant O'Grady. I smuggled some good food in for the girl. She insisted I'd bring you some.  I wish I could be a better one. Do you mean that? I wish I could set you both free. We're getting fed up with Canfield. He had one of the men whip this morning. Then why don't you do something about it? What can we do? We've got to bear with the tale. Kind of let Gonyl crossed at death, but if you all acted together, man, we haven't got the nerve.  And me too. Me and O'Grady. I'm scared, Sergeant. It's no good talking. Each of us. As night faded in today the following morning the main street of the capital was deserted. The Lone Ranger, Thunder Cloud, the Governor, and the other members of the party had a quite bulk of the government building at the far end of the street, a mile away. Thunder Cloud himself carried the flag of truth. Light steward at the livery's table was the first to see them. His first shot was one of fear. Then he saw the flag of truth and realized the men were unarmed. In house after house, windows were raised, doors were thrown open, people poured into the street. By the time the procession had covered half the distance to the government building it was being polled by a constantly increasing crowd. Guards came out of the capital and formed a solid rank of rifles in front of the building. The Lone Ranger and his companions rode straight toward them. At last they pulled their mouths to a halt. Directly in front of the capital steps the door of the building opened and Kenfield stepped out flanked by more riflemen. Thunder Cloud come to us for peace. General tell Thunder Cloud what white men want Indian to do. Indian promise all white men ask. Indian want peace. Oh, so you want peace. What do you want, Mask Man? I'm here to face any charges that are against me. I want a fair trial. You took the new Governor prisoner yesterday, didn't you? You might call it that. Where is he? As far as I know, he's here. No lie, you killed him. No, I didn't. It wasn't smart, Mask Man. I'm still Governor and I'll stay Governor. You've been charged with treason already. Now I'm charging you with murder and I'm finding you guilty. Well, without a trial? I say you're guilty, that's enough. Fairburn, you're going to jail. What's the charge against me? You'll be told later.  Thunder Cloud come here under flag of truth. What's that to me? The only good Indian is a dead Indian. And in 15 minutes you're going to be one of the best.  Wait! The man's insane. What's that? Which one of you Indians said that? I did and I'm not an Indian. This is stain on my face and arms. Look, look at my arms. Renegade, eh? No, the name is Alexander Kilgore. What? And I'm the Governor of this territory. Bulls. And here are my credentials. My appointment signed by the President of the United States. I thought that... That I was dead, eh? And that you were free to govern as you please to set aside every federal and territorial law to commit mass murders. That's all the Indians deserve. It's only justice for the Mask Man. Justice you don't know what the word means. But you're going to find out, can't you? You're not going to do anything to me. These soldiers are my men and they'll only take orders from me. I'm relieving you of your command. You can't. I'll show you. Guard this man as an imposter.  Now that chance can't be used. I saw the President's signature on that paper. This man's the real Governor. And we're taking orders from him. You'll die for this, old crazy. We'll all die if we don't get rid of you. Right, men? Right. What are your orders, Governor? Take him to jail.  If you'll excuse me, gentlemen. Easy, sir. Any color. Just to make your work a little easier. No! Mountain City. Thank you for your vote of confidence. I promise to discharge my duties in accordance with the laws of the territory and uphold the Constitution of the United States. I promise to safeguard your rights and I promise you peace. Now, you're free to go, Thunder Cloud and to lead your people back to Blue Creek Valley. That's good. Ronego! Ronego! I'm probably free to go as well, Governor. Yes, indeed you are. With all my thanks. Thank you, sir. Easy, sir. Yes! Slowly, honey. Are you all right? What's the message? Oh, nothing, no. We've been in jail since you left, Mr. Fairburn. The guard just let it out. And can't he just take me a place? Yes. Governor, this is my doctor. And this is Captain McNeil of the United States Army. How do you do? We're so happy, Governor. So grateful. Oh, not to me. Your gratitude and mine belong to the mask man. Who is he, Fairburn? One of the greatest men the West will ever know. He is the Lone Ranger. A feature of the Lone Ranger Incorporated, created by George W. Trendle, produced by Trendle Campbell Enterprises, directed by Charles D. Livingston and ever...


Welcome once again, Professor Dunu and because as we've told earlier, we're running a series on the master plan of Delhi and in the series, we thought that with Dunu, we'll be able to finish in one episode, but we have not been because the dialogue has been very interesting or especially conformity, non-conformity, exclusion or slums. So, we've started our journey from the beginning of 1981 to the end of 1981. And from 1981 to 2021, we'll talk about that in this episode. Professor Dunu, I think it's better we start from where you left, you know, where you set the grey area of Shah Janabad and especially the skills that people have developed. He said, no, we don't want you.  So I think over to you, please.  And what the experts do is when the people don't do what the experts think should be done, they declare the people's activity to be non-conform and unauthorized. So in the 81 plan, what the experts had envisaged is the government would do or the government would enable that it did not, the TDA could not do. So the gap was made up by the people. They made their shops, offices, industries, homes, everything. They even made roads. They made trains. They made MCDs into sewage pits. They gave some money to the electricity board and changed the electricity line. This is done. All the slums have done it. All the unauthorized colonies have done it. And this creativity, instead of recognizing the experts declare it to be illegal, not in the plan. So you have not conformed to the plan. But they never answer that the experts have also not conformed to the plan. So this dimension of the failure of the experts and the government bodies to not able to deliver is converted into the success of the people to deliver, but it is illegal. So in the 82-2001 plan, they at least took the position. That all these non-conforming, we will conform them and relocate them. That means the industry is in a non-conforming area. Where they should be, they will develop the industry and we will send them there. So they will be conforming. But they did not answer this question. That you have not made 11 industries. Now you are saying that you will make more. So you are not exploring your own failure. You are only interrogating the success of the people. But at least they did not say they will demolish. They said we will rebuild. We will, for the one lakh people who have built their own houses, we will build one lakh more houses and put them there. But in addition, they said not just one lakh houses, we have to build some more houses for the coming population. So they said we have not built one lakh for them. There are 2 lakh more houses that are being demolished. And there are 13 lakh more houses that will be built. So they set a target of 16 lakhs for the next 20 years. This 16 lakhs they again never built, they have built 6. According to whatever data we have been able to gather. They have not built. So you can understand that if they have not built that house, then the previous one also went as per the plan. And then again and again blame the people. That why have you built all this unauthorized, all these illegals, all this non-conform. So in the MPD 2001, the same pattern was repeated. Failure on the part of government, but refusal to recognize it. Success on the part of the people, but refusal to accept it. And this has continued. But the big difference between the 2001 and the 2021 master plan was they finally recognized their failure. And they said, we cannot build it again. The people who have built it have built it. We surrender, but we will renovate. We will upgrade so that it comes within the norms. But because they were unable to fulfill their own norms, they started diluting the norms. So as I told you, earlier our primary school in the 2001 master plan was supposed to be built on 4,000 square meters of land. In the 2021 primary school, same school, same population, the land shrank to 2,000 from 4,000. That's nearly half. That's nearly half. And by half, they increased the FAR. So this means that in the same half of the land, the school will go up. So the primary school that used to have one goal was of three goals. So this is the kind of pattern that you begin seeing in the 2021 master plan. They are saying we will upgrade, but we will dilute the norms. There's one more thing because you've come to 2021. And I think this is the period post 1990s that we saw, you know, opening up of the economy. And going out of the industry, whether it's the Supreme Court's order or something. And the arrival of more informalization, that is, the informal sector today, almost 400% more, that includes labor. But there is a huge informal sector in the city. How does the master plan reflect that? One, you said about the school, okay, the land shrank up. So this is an argument that withdrawal of the state from all these issues. Do you see any withdrawal of the state in the master plan? We won't do that. We will do it like this. One withdrawal is that instead of giving non-conforming a second place, they are saying that it's non-conforming. That's why we will upgrade diluted norms. This is a withdrawal. That we don't see you as per our norms. There's no withdrawal. There's a deliberate attack. In 2001, the courts had started becoming active on these issues. On environmental issues. And factory closures had started taking place. As well as the eviction of jubilee. Do you remember the biggest demolition in the emergency period? Before the asiat games. Then the commonwealth games. And these have all been engineered till you remove them. But you see the problem is that the organic growth of the city. You cannot stop with this. All that will happen is that the creativity of the people gets channelized more and more into what is called non-conforming and unauthorized. And this tension between people's planning and expert government planning. They try to resolve it this way. One, they surrender that it won't happen to us. That's why we will upgrade. We will dilute the norms. And slowly, slowly, we will try to remove it. You can see these three things from the master plan of 2021. After 2021, the new master plan. There was another big change. And that is total surrender. The government is saying that we can neither make a new one nor can we fix the old one. Now they are saying that we should privatize all of this. You mean the whole thing? Yes, that's the whole thing. Land pooling. Land pooling, institute of privatization, privatization of electricity, privatization of water. They have put all of this into experiments. After the experiment, in 2041, this is all declared. This has now become public policy. That you distribute the whole city in pieces and send it to the private. That's interesting what you said. The phase of the experiment was from 2001 to 2021. And now it's a part of public policy. It's a private public policy. See, I'll give you an example of that. In C2 Upgradation, their first experiment is when they broke the cut-throat colony and gave it to the Rahija builder. I was going to take Rahija's name. Yes, they gave it to Rahija. What did Rahija Builders do there? That policy was 60-40. 60% land, which would be for the residents, would be 40% builder. But in 40% there are two states. 20% and 20%. 20% builder will make his residential complex which he will sell. In 20% he will make that commercial complex. But for whom? For EWS. And in 60% he would build high-rise tournaments for the residents of Cut-Throatry colony. This was all supposed to be done in two years. It is now already in nine years. Still not completed. And what the builder has done is captured the 20% commercial for EWS and made it 20% commercial for safe. So this is the PPP model. Why do they consider it a success? They consider it a success because Rahija made profit. They don't consider it a success because they have destroyed the people of Cut-Throatry colony. They haven't got it yet. They won't get it anymore. They used to give it for free. Now see how they dilute the norm. In the first resettlement, they used to give a plot of 20%. After that, it went down. 40% went down. After that, 25 square meters. After that, 18.5. After that, 12.5. That means the family is the same. But the land is getting smaller and smaller. And now what is there is no land. Now we will give you a flat on the ground. So you cannot expand. You cannot do anything. You are confined. For example, the chicken, they used to let the chicken out. Come out and give eggs. Now what has happened is that you sit in this and give eggs in this. This is modernization. This is productivity. This is efficiency. And this is what is being applied. And this is the logic of the neoliberal, neoliberal economy. Which you are seeing in its naked form. And the biggest problem according to me is mass organizations which resisted this in the 60s and the 80s. Either don't exist anymore because the working class has been in a sense not destroyed, but dispersed, fragmented. And their place has been taken by NGOs. Or Zadadar NGOs have bought this idea of neoliberal development. Well, this brings me to another aspect maybe before we close down. I think that's very important. I mean two aspects that you've got. One is the David Harveyan thesis which speaks in the same language what you are saying. The fragmentation of the working class, the conventional working class breaking down. And of course the rise of the right that's a separate political chapter. But at the same time the Italian communists, I mean the Italian left, in fact the architects and the planners who have been experimenting. And then of course Le Fabre, the French, the famous Frencher, plan architect. They are saying just treat city as an industry, as a factory. And then just wait for the factory to come back again and then wait for the rise of the working class and then further to experiment the social and political change. But right now, look at the whole city as a factory. And the social production as you said in neoliberalism is a massive capital accumulation. Start working on this. What do you have to say on this? I mean if we close down, so what exactly should people like who want to transform who are not even part of that accepted civil society version. I mean what do you have to say on that? You mentioned Italy so I'll take a similar kind of analogy. You know the National Institute of Design in Ahmedabad worked on the principle that if you're making a product designing a product you must first ask the user what is the product that you are designing for the person. You have to ask the person what is it that the person wants and design it accordingly. This is the basis of design which still exists in Italy. Italy is famous for design and the reason is in Italy they still teach according to the same principle that when you make a product you design it according to the needs of the user. The needs of the person who is going to use the product. National Institute of Design in Ahmedabad has changed. Now the user for whom they design is no longer the consumer. The user is the contractor or the industrial house. So the industrial house is giving them a washing machine to design. They no longer ask the user of the washing machine. They're asking the industrial design what is it that you want will give you your. So this is the radical change that has taken place in the concept of design itself. And if we want to restore it in the master planning process then I think we have to follow that principle that the user of the city has to begin saying that this is the kind of city as the people and it's there organically it's there what I have been describing organically it's there but it is never made into a theoretical exercise that people do this we need to understand and make it according to the people. So last word I think that's a very important way to say it I mean there is one more extension of one month now someone is not going to tell you what to do. What should be done I know it's a highly exclusive plan I mean that's what most of the planners I mean who think differently are pointing it out but what should be done so that people reclaiming their space in the planning process. So what is your call? I think in one month there is very little time to do anything I think you will also appreciate that in one month particularly during COVID to be able to do something and they have used COVID they have used the lockdown and the restrictions they have used COVID for the construction of the central vista I mean so it's very difficult to do anything in one month to propose an alternative design but I think there are two things that can be done in this one month one is to begin explaining the principles of planning to people to show that they are actually adopting those principles of planning in their own in their own daily life they are doing their primary studies they are setting their own norms and they are implementing those they are doing it but it is never recognized officially so this is something that can be definitely done and on the basis of this in one month time at least incipient resistance to the existing drug can come up to say we don't accept your master that is the maximum I think that's a fair more than that I don't think anything so thank you so much for explaining it so easily because it is not easy and they don't even want to make it easy they don't want to be as easy that's why they don't want to and thank you for your time and we'll continue with this with the series again


For today's event and to introduce a colleague of mine, former colleague, head of E3G in London, Nick, I was very happy to work with E3G with my other colleague, Johnson Cavanto, who's here for a number of years recently on European energy policy, but was always hugely impressed with Nick, maybe, who's an amazing, I think, insight as to what's happening in the political system and applying it to a particularly climate and energy issues. Where he's had a long-held interest going back to MIT, I suppose originally, in terms of energy systems analysis, Al Strump, he went astray, World Wildlife Foundation, he was World Wildlife Foundation, he was found again, and then Foreign Office and number 10 in London, and as I said, for the last, must be 10 years in E3G, 11 years in E3G. So I think we're very lucky to have him here, it's a very interesting time to have his perspective on some of the climate change issues in relation to Brexit in our future of Europe. Thanks very much, and thanks so much for inviting me here. I think it's the second time I've spoken here. The first time I spoke here was the first time at Amen, and when we kind of dragged him into doing some interesting politics around Europe. Amen mentioned in my history that I kind of took a detour working in the nuclear industry. I actually wasn't working in the nuclear industry, though I was working in the nuclear industry. I thought I was working in the only UK firm that produced wind turbines at the time I graduated from college as a mechanical engineer. Then I found out that the wind turbine we were building was a three megawatt wind turbine on Orkney, and the partners in the wind turbine were BA Systems, a nuclear firm, and Rolls-Royce, and that's when I realised the reason we were doing that when the Danes were building 500 kilowatt wind turbines was that the Department of Energy wanted us to come up with the most expensive wind turbine ever built. So they could prove definitively that wind power had no future in the UK and the only future was coal and nuclear. That's when I started to stop doing engineering and started doing politics, so which kind of sums up my whole journey. I wish in some ways I'd graduated at the time I could have carried on building huge monstrosities in the North Sea that were drowned, but you don't get to organise the times you live in, and that's why at E3G we do a lot of work trying to connect politics and policy, and this is obviously the role of Brexit in energy and climate change is pretty much on the biggest piece of politics and policy out there. So before I start I'll just introduce E3G so you know who we are. So we're a non-profit. We have offices in London, Brussels, Berlin, and Washington, but we work kind of half in Europe and half outside Europe. We'll focus on accelerating the transition to sustainable development where real kind of climate changes are core business, but really looking at the difficult social and political and regulatory transitions. We're working with a range of organisations in Brussels and Jonathan leads that work here as well on the negotiations, but also on the future of Europe, so the link between that shifting how all of this changes Europe going forward, but we're also working in the UK with a set of environmental NGOs and others on for greener UK that are trying to make sure that the UK side is run well. So on both sides of the channel we see both sides of the conversation. I think we're trusted on both sides of the conversation but we'll see how that goes during the negotiations and just because everybody always asks where work we do is supported by foundations, mainly mixture of European and UK foundations. So what are the kind of core messages from the work we've been doing since the referendum really, since the fateful day afterwards we thought what does this mean for us? Well the first one is we think that EU 27 is much too complacent about the outcome of Brexit on the interests, the future security and prosperity of Europeans, but they just think it's something that happens over there and it isn't really going to touch them. But we definitely think Europe can't afford an uncooperative Brexit which can appear in several different ways because the chances of a deregulatory state in the UK are incredibly high for lots of structural political reasons which we'll downlifts discuss and if that happens it will massively chill the development of an inclusive high quality Europe and also lower Europe's ability to shape the world for Europeans, that ability to project power and influence and of course it will also give immediate costs and the country most affected by those immediate costs will be Ireland as you all know so well in the front page of the papers today say so eloquently about how much public revenue will be lost. The world has changed and we'll go through these detailed scenarios we've been doing for the last year when after the elections we see the scenarios kind of polarised now between a more cooperative soft outcome and actually a complete crash and with nothing much in between we'll go through why that is and it's a mixture of the kind of chaos in the UK plus the failure to get a mandate for a hard Brexit and we really think that in order to move us towards a more likely cooperative soft Brexit outcome and perhaps even a change of hearts in the UK that's all talk about that that energy and climate change is a great place to build cooperation we need to have dynamic cooperation there's a lot of win-win activities we need to do and that can be a way of doing it and Ireland has a specific role to play in championing a more cooperative politics inside the EU 27 because it's unique space, voice and position negotiations that's the general message so the first piece why do we think Europe is complacent about Brexit? Well part of it's the good news you know the mojo is back Macron is back the populace are defeated everything's fine well it's not everything's fine everything's going better than it was and the idea of Europe cracking up into chaos has seen us a much lower likelihood in the next few years though obviously in Paris it's we've got five years to defeat the populace it's a basic line and we need to make some big changes but still that means that the political attention in Berlin in Paris in Brussels is really focused on the Eurozone reforms it's focused on the offer to the left behind it's focused on dealing with Trump dealing with China if you follow the latest EU China summit good on climate still bad on difficult on trade and the relationship between two you know Europe's got to act like a proper geostrategic power now and it's not you know it's still getting its head around how to do that without the UK and of course this is embodied in a future of Europe process that's about to kick off from already in earnest start in December and it's because they think yeah and rightly that the economic costs of a disorderly crash Brexit will form up mostly on the UK and basically that will be a good thing to discourage others to go so if your main issue is discouraging others and that's still especially in Brussels is the main thing people think about then that's good in the kind of political chaos in the UK is an object lesson if even a stable politically stable country like the UK doesn't feel that stable when you live in it but anyway from the outside it's a narrative so that so basically the heart of the better is a little bit and it's I was talking to a colleague in Paris she said rationally they know that's not true but this is emotional this is about you know there's an emotional piece here which is still quite strong because of the resentment of the divorce vote but as I said before the underestimates the cost of having a very large economy just offshore from Europe which is focused on aligning with the US and Australia and others and using deregulation as a major force of competitiveness which will fail and therefore they'll double down on it they won't say we're not going to do more deregulation you know there's a long way you can go down that line if there's a lack of cooperation and really I think people underestimate on the continent the strength of that faction of the Conservative Party and their supporters in the right-wing press I mean it's a daily mail it's a telegraph it's the express they're the major right-wing tabloids and broadsheets and they're very vocal about this even after the tragic fire the Grenfell fire their headline was did EU regulations cause displays it was absolutely repulsive that's their first thought can we blame EU regulations for everything so and I just don't think people understand how much sway they have in a particular part of the party and they're already preparing for this you know the key objective of this faction in the UK is to do trade deals with other countries and they're already looking at how to harmonize around chlorinated chicken and beef hormone treated beef with the US and Australia so the first three deals they want to do are US Australia New Zealand agriculture will be key what's that do to Ireland and Ireland's agricultural sector what's the DUP think of that we might ask doesn't seem to fit their version of Brexit but that's the that is the agenda live in Whitehall at the moment so too complacent so where are we going into so this is the structure you know this you phase one phase zero the negotiations about negotiations that took around two minutes we're expecting that to take a little longer after David Davis was so baroc in his idea so we're in phase one you know citizens money in Ireland and at some point there will be a decision that that's going well and we'll move into phase two the future relationship which people start talking about the future relationship and then they turn it into a discussion of trade and investment and services and all the other bits of our future relationship seem to to drop off and that the sometime you know there'll be a conclusion of a withdrawal agreement and the end of the and the kind of some some undeterminate point because we want to finish the trade relations but have some kind of MOU or principles where you know nothing's agreed till everything's agreed but we're not quite sure what that means but anyway so they can sort that out that's not too difficult you know Barney I said it's a two plus two two years withdrawal two years trade like Hammond said two plus four yesterday two plus seven might be more realistic um who knows um but somewhere in that in that range but the critical thing for us when we look at this is when do you discuss areas where we need to carry on cooperating whether that's security whether that's environment whether that's climate change whether that's energy whether that's digital places where the world is moving on we're staying the same or a little less than the same like a tariff isn't good enough where we actually need to cooperate to do win-wins and it's just doesn't like there's anywhere there so that we're doing two plus two and then do these things or are they going to be bundled in so where do we actually do the issues which for us we feel are at least as important economically and probably more important in terms of health and welfare and prosperity and security than some of the issues being looked at in the trade area given the low level of tariffs bound in under WTO which already there so priorities and for energy and climate of course this is happening at a very busy time i won't go through all the different processes but we're doing a lot of stuff on energy and climate at the same time as brexit but particularly we're re-engineering the whole of the EU energy economy and transport economy and financial economy and the budget which we changed by brexit and then have to put a new offer forward in 2020 to put paris back on track now we've decided we're defenders of paris we can't so back and then pretty much straight after that in the same commission with the same parliament we will have the global stock take in 2023 where we have to put our 2040 target on the table to be finalized in 2025 so that's pretty much one political moment in the same time frame as the brexit strike future agreement where we will determine the 2040 trajectory and offer of the EU and that pretty much determines what temperature we get to live with globally so if we can't as europe put a strong proposition forward how likely is it that china and india and others will or we'll end up with three degrees what do we think of that or two and a half you know pick your number but it ain't going to be well below two and it's certainly not going to be 1.5 so paris fails at that point inside which brexit is going on in parallel with all these changes so that's why we say for energy and climate change to crash brexit would be incredibly damaging so first distraction at the same time is doing this and especially if we we have a very uncooperative process and we're dealing with clearing up mess the idea that it will both empower low ambition forces in poland and it's silent allies in certain industries in certain other countries to do less but also weaken european diplomatic capacity uk has 145 full-time climate diplomats the european commission has 1.5 germany has around six so you know having a good relationship on climate deployment through the uk really helped as well as in global influence we don't want the uk veering towards a trumpist or post trump to be honest us which will still be split on climate change and not a real leader on climate action um because it hasn't got a good relationship with europe um deregulation a race at the bottom we need to stop that how do we make sure we've got rules that stop that race at the bottom especially if you're in ireland um disruption to markets you know ireland becoming an energy island if we haven't got rules to have a seamless internal market particularly in electricity it's going to be very hard to respond to the any energy revolution that's going on at the moment just as we're accelerating the growth of renewables and just when things like offshore wind are dropping radically in price and starting to become cost competitive with any other alternative but can only be deployed at real penetration scale inside an integrated um at least you know sub regional scale grid if not a continental scale grid you know you need that to make it work otherwise it doesn't become feasible disentanglement if the uk drops out we have to open up the european 2030 target have to rearrange burdens does europe actually put forward a lower target in 2020 like trump will was going to do that so we do in that we do a us so you know what's the consequences of dropping out so uk is drafting an ets bill even though it wasn't in the queen speech it's drafting an autarkic climate policy which is not connected to europe and deferral of investment you know until people know how they're going to be integrated together will they actually put money on the table for significant investments until they know how the european budget is going to work how the eib is going to work uh the market so on all of these areas of course um even under the best agreement some of these will come in but under a crash agreement all of these will be very bad sense so so where are we now what are the what is the kind of state of play in terms of the way the EU sees this um so we've got some good things barnier has said repeatedly in private and public that he wants to have a strong clause on not rolling back environmental standards um however in ceter and t-tip that was non-binding it was non-justiceable though there's a new court ruling that may change that but so fine but actually how binding is going to be in the final agreement when this is a real demand from the uk the hard liners they want to have the flexibility to do this because they want to align with other people's trade agreements um no cherry picking so there seems to be a bundling of the internal energy market with the internal market as a well it's not a thing that's a name for a lot of things a lot of treaties and so no you can't cherry pick sectors that's the need that's the line but again you know there is a revolution energy and digital systems which means we are integrated physically and we need to evolve with the integration of technology it's a technological fact we have to work together because we are physically connected and getting deeper connected in that way um the political importance of the climate leadership has risen with Merkel and Macron particularly coming out vis-a-vis Trump they've got to back that up if they mess this up they won't be able to back up their rhetoric with action so that should impinge on european prioritization um by 2030 at an aggregate level europe gets to 50 percent of renewables in the power sector and uk and others will be further down that path you just can't do that without integrating at the regional level and in the end there's an out the energy has never been a classic internal market system we have lots of different arrangements with countries like the energy community outside the EU and so if we want to carve it out and call it special it is special it's a different bit of the treaty it has different structures around it it's not the same as trade competence legal wise so there's no need to bundle it together to avoid cherry picking but you know it's unclear those are good arguments to make it different but Barney to us anyway has been unclear in terms of where he sees cooperation fitting in the negotiations and this issue of you know punishment and integrity is this just a chip in a bigger game of making UK feel the pain well if it makes Ireland feel lots and lots of pain perhaps it should be lower down on the list of instruments to use to enforce that particular negotiating objective the problem is we're not having a public debate about those priorities in Europe it's as if it's all done in Barney A's head well that's obviously not good enough there should be a public debate about in which areas you make leaving the EU look like a bad thing I mean obviously UK politics is an object lesson of why you shouldn't try and leave Europe but you know I think it's really you know the absence of that public debate is really stifling the discussion we are not negotiators Barney A has to say certain things he's a negotiator but we can have a political discussion around the negotiations which thinks about these things whereas sometimes it feels like it's like no you're not allowed to speak because that will undermine the European negotiating hand well I just don't I don't believe that and I don't think it's healthy for democracy and for 21st century diplomacy to say people in in closed rooms will determine the future and I think t-tip showed what's happened when you try and run a 21st century diplomacy process that impacts people's what they eat what they breathe where they go to work and then try and run it like an old classic 19th century process where you just trust the negotiator to go away for six months and come back with a deal so we've done a lot of work on scenarios around brexit thinking through how they work and we've I'll show you the kind of how we've labored it so we've looked at four core drivers the first one is how people are prioritizing national interest we've done quite a lot of work particular energy and climate looking at the national interest different countries secondly you know orderly versus disorderly negotiating processes this is not always what you want but the negotiations are so complex the UK is so disorganized just trying to run this even with goodwill is hard and as the co-behagian negotiations showed us in climate change you know things can just fall over because they're too complicated and geometry of the negotiations can determine things which political outcomes the third one is the timing extent of economic impacts how wealthy do people feel particularly in the UK at certain points how's that going to change that's going to be a lot of this is what forces come together at what time relative to negotiations again it might not be your intent you have to live with the economics and politics you've got and then last one is what's the momentum coming out of the article 50 withdrawn negotiations are we hating each other and static or is it you know we've done a quick deal with lots of goodwill and we got half when you've got on the way to moving forward so how that's gone which is again a mixture of tactics playing into strategy so those are the areas we've looked at and this is where we kind of plot them out we have a y-axis between orderly and disorderly we think that's really important that how things are playing and then we have a x-axis of corporation interest dominate and on the other one sovereignty and integrity for the EU interest dominates that's the kind of playing field and we identify kind of three stroke four kind of core blobs of where we think things can land up depending on the dynamics they don't overlap because they're driven by very different forces at the bottom there's the EU in chaos outcome which is very disorderly driven from the EU side remember we started writing these last year and basically integrity and sovereignty is not completely dominant but pretty dominant so that's the kind of that was one outcome at the top right we have economic transition that's a corporation interest dominate it's an orderly process we try and do you know the best deal we can obviously there's a range of outcomes that you can get in that but it's generally we're trying to get a good outcome and we have a process that lets us go through it and then on the other side we have a blob that has two poles one is the sovereign transition which is you know Europe prioritizes integrity UK prioritizes sovereignty it tries to run an orderly process and kind of tough battles David Davis is in there being kind of I'm going to make a row in the summer um that's you know but that can drop down into hostile nationalism particularly because that's where you play tactical games to your own audience and say aren't they bad they're not looking good faith and so it's a bit of a slippery slope and so in February 2017 that's where we thought the scenario was that's amazing negotiating position we thought the dominant scenario was they'll try and do sovereign transition particularly from the UK side with a very high risk of dropping into hostile nationalism and I go through this in detail but you can just from the reds for the energy and climate change on all of the indicators and benchmarks we use um not very good either for the UK on the left or the EU on the right more reds for the UK but still not a very good outcome and particularly if it crashes out and I say there's a paper you can read all of this um so what's changed so we just updated the scenarios they've just been put on the website so after the UK and French elections so what have we what have we seen well positive move on national interests we think there's a kind of stronger view towards cooperation macrons come forward people feeling um more confident UK election result means business voice will be stronger there's you know the remainers were seen to have kind of pushed against the hardest of brexit outcome so positive positive on that line orderly versus disorderly on the other hand gone the other way the ability of the UK to hold a negotiating position and particularly to do a final deal at heads level when the normal negotiations break down because this will not be solved at the negotiator level has dropped off massively because there is no consensus in any party on what brexit UK wants so this isn't just a fact so who knows what brexit will pop out so the likelihood of um disorderly negotiations has gone up um economic impacts mixed but we're seeing them hit in but not a real change from what we were expecting we're expecting that to you know negative economic impacts to roll through pretty much as they are now and momentum coming out we think yeah it's kind of mixed as well not not a huge change um going forward updated it after the recent meeting was a bit more positive because they've not argued over the agenda so how does that change what we think is likely in dominant scenarios it's it's very strange we think that UK can't do a sovereign transition anymore it's lost that mandate so the actual that space has gone that's why that blob has gone down we think EU and chaos is off the table for the next few years you know we may be proved wrong but we're taking a fact that that's an unlike very unlikely event now so we're now stuck in two polarised scenarios a solid orderly kind of economic interest driven approach and a disorderly populist driven hostile nationalist approach like a crash brexit so you know kind of either one or the other and the question is which one are we going to go for and how do we try and get further up that side and again I won't go through the detail but we've done analysis of what hostile nationalism means for energy and climate very bad for the UK gets lots of reds it's still pretty bad for you on all of our metrics and particularly bad for Europe going into the next climate I mean climate is really really bad because it just you know there won't be much much better if we get an orderly outcome orderly cooperative outcomes again feel free to read through the detail so quite big stakes quite polarised outcomes how do we make sure we're more likely to get on the cooperative outcome and we think that's my island it's on my last slide but island can play a really critical role so island has the most to gain from the strong cooperation and not just an engine climate but everything and much to lose from the crash brexit I don't think there's much complacency here so you're a bit of an outlier compared to certainly Paris and Berlin I wonder if Denmark and Sweden and others what they think we haven't gone but we are planning to take this down to kind of get the temperature island is very well positioned to be a advocate for a negotiating approach actually creates a clear space to do the cooperation so let's just leave it to chance or Barnier's whims to do it because you can blend you've got an interest which is very hard headed about the deregulatory side so being tough in the lose lose negotiations over trade relations you know those aren't much fun they're not going to generate any wealth or value but they need to be sorted out but at the same time in the kind of win win areas where we need to strengthen future cooperation from where we are today's isn't about you know in climate change we need stronger climate change to go cooperation is stronger energy than under current European rules and that's what we were negotiating internally inside Europe a positive cooperation a cooperative approach and we think you could do this in four ways firstly just making the case for it just saying if we want the politics to be shaped in the right way we can't just talk about lose lose all the time we have to have some places where you are building this partnership and that's important for us that's important for Europeans and it's important for Ireland so making that kind of principled national European case secondly make sure these issues are dealt with positively in the first phase discussions about Ireland because all of these issues will come up now we're not quite sure when the timing of that is going to be but it's something they will have to address in phase one on things like energy cooperation etc and properly can't just be again a kind of border discussion it's going to have to be about how we cooperate thirdly start to build the coalition of other countries who care and who will start to move that again trying to find who those people on the environment side on cooperation and different areas and realize that if it's just a negative relationship we can end up with something very bad and also support business and think tanks talking about it like this this is a way you surround negotiations with thinking it's not all about negotiation we haven't thought through all of the dynamics and the priorities of the brexit negotiations that should be a right debate and it should be a debate with Europeans across all the countries including the Europeans who live in the UK who have some interests and don't necessarily feel particularly represented by David Davis at the negotiating table and lastly the potential as we get into the second phase to oppose that climate energy then becomes a bit of an early harvest strategic confidence building measure very normal thing to do in big complex negotiations say let's show we can work together on these things let's work we can work through arbitration and regulatory harmonization of in an area that is not politicized but we've got very aligned goals there's lots of value to be created and show we can do it and then other things on the cooperative side can move forward and that is a and that's put in from the beginning not waiting till after we've got totally bored of doing you know customs deals and tariff negotiations and access for the city of London and everybody's completely tired at the end and I think there's a particular issue at the end of phase one which is about international obligations where we have to decide if we're going to talk about UK being part and EU's commitment under the Paris Accord which was taken together and part of phase one is talking about ongoing international obligations so again there is a place in the current terms of reference to say okay how are we going to deal with this this is big and important it can't just be shoved in a side closet and left till later we need to actually have a process for dealing with it and so we think if this is something Ireland can do which would have a material impact in getting a better outcome and again not just in climate energy but in shaping the whole frame of the negotiations and particularly so that European citizens this back to the future of Europe that they think these things are being done not to in the interest of Siemens and Goldman Sachs and others and trade-offs between you know sectors and services and goods because whatever they say that's what the trade stuff will be about but actually in the interest of what Europeans care about and what give Europeans direct welfare benefits security benefits prosperity benefits because we don't want this to be t-tip too in terms of the relationship between a negotiation and European citizens because then one it might fall over right at the end which would be another way of getting crash Brexit not getting ratification but also it would set up the new Europe assuming UK does leave in the wrong spirit from the beginning in a spirit that had distrust at its core rather than trust and a new social contract at its core which for me is what the point of the future of Europe debates was all about and this is critical to do it thank you very much


Hey, what's good boys, welcome back. We have one of the dopest mystery box openings we have probably ever done on the channel today. Oh my God. So I hit up Christine Auction who has all the amazing mystery boxes we've done before. I said, can you just send me five? Not one, but five. So what we did is rather than just opening all these, we've kind of labeled them. Each of these mystery boxes is associated with a team. The purple is Minnesota Vikings, green is Philadelphia Eagles, blue is Buffalo Bills, red is Niners, and white is Pure Random. And rather than me just opening these and telling you guys to comment and giving everything away, we're giving it away on the spot. I invited five subscribers to come compete for these mystery boxes. Everybody's going home with one so it's gonna be awesome no matter what. All right, we got all the boys here. The first challenge is the last to miss the pass. You're gonna take one throw, seven yards away. If you hit one, two, or three, you're still in. So the last man standing is gonna get his choice of the first mystery box. No pressure to mess up the very first throw.  That was too easy. Oh, oh, okay. Stay hot. Oh, got that one, got it, got it, got it, got it, got it. Stay hot, boys. Okay, ooh, down to two, down to two. Oh, you threw first though. You still gotta hit it. This is redemption shot because he's still gotta throw. You make this, you win. Oh, sir. First mystery box to choice. Purple Vikings, white mystery, green eagles, blue bills, and red 49ers in one. We're gonna do the red 49ers. Red 49ers box, let's go see what's in it.  You made a good choice. Oh, oh, there's a lot. You got a ball? That tree lands. Okay, you can start. Trees will have that. Whoa, whoa, whoa. Also, a massive thank you to Pristine Auction for hooking us up with these mystery boxes. Pristine Auction sells all of the amazing stuff you see in these mystery box videos. I know they're gonna have some awesome signed memorabilia for your favorite team. There's a link in the top of the description to check out Pristine Auction and use my code MMG for $10 off your first purchase. We got the Vonte Adams. Yes, sir. Is that Dalvin Cook? Dalvin Cook?  Oh, that's tough.  Jerry Rice. The Jerry Rice Black, Gold, and White. That's wild, man. That's wild. All right, one more. There's one more right in there. Oh, kiddo up the middle. Let's go. That's gold. Oh, salute to service. Thank you. Hey, congratulations, my guy. Hey, first winner, 49ers box. What do you got? Let's get a review here. Jerry Rice, Black, Gold, and White. Sign with the red. That's so fire. Salute to service, kiddo. Crazy, man, with the army green. Then got Dalvin Cook, Signed Drizzy, Davonte Adams. What'd you call him? What was his name? Trilot Dance. All right, next up, you have to assemble the beer pong teams. You know the rules.  Everything else is the same rules, you know. Y'all? Oh.  Balls back? That's what we needed for the visual. Balls back! One hour later. Dude, I don't know. Do they blow? Fake snap. Here it is, Carson. A few moments later. Staking that thing or something. He was not allowed to happen.   One hour later. He's hitting the thing every second. One eternity later.  What are we going for? What will the decisions be down here? He's going mystery, mystery box. What's your team? If you had one ahead of your team, what would it be? Sadly, the Cardinals.  Sadly. Hey, I'm a Lions fan, man. All right, the mystery, mystery box. Mystery, mystery. I don't even remember. I don't even remember what's in this box. Ooh! Barry Canary, signed here. Is he a good start? Ooh, is that a charger? Don't worry. Who is that? Blue. That's hard. That is hard. Here, let. Oh! Uh-oh. Did you see this? Oh, no. No, we didn't. I have no idea what this is. Trevor Lawrence with the patch. Trevor Lawrence, rookie auto jersey.  That's Clemson. Yo. Wait, that's so fire.  Is this Clemson jersey? They say these are worth more when it actually has all the colors of the jersey in it. It's got the orange, the purple, the white. That's fire. That's fire. Oh, no. No way. Say Barry Sanders on it. As soon as he saw it, he looked at me, too. He goes, oh, bro. That's wild. Devonte Adam. Mystery box. What do we all got? Barry Sanders. Barry Austin Eckler, Henry. Trevor Lawrence Otto. Devonte Adams' helmet. Congratulations, my guy. That's awesome, bro. All right, Elijah. Your pick. What do you got?  He's going Vikings. All right, the purple. Oh, oh. What is this?  What is this? Little Dan Marino playboy? Wait a minute. I'm going to need that. Wait, no, dude. That's not, no. That's my bro. Is it the Viking? Who is it? It should tell you on there somewhere.  Yo, Mills. I couldn't figure out who that was at first. J. J. Dennis. Justin Jeffers. Just Matt White. Oh, that's fire, dude. That's it.  John L. Way. He's got the OG box. This is the OG box. Dan Marino, L.A. and? Luke Keekley.  This is the OG box. John L. Way. Sign ball. Got the actual Panthers ball. These are so dope. It's got Panthers logo on it. Luke Keekley. And the Vikings box, of course. Justin Jefferson. And Dan Marino playboy.  All right, boys. Eagles box and Bill's box remains. We've still got two competitors. It's going to be the last to drop a pass. So we're going to get out the judgment steamer again to get these boys some gloves. We'll get after it. All right, boys. Hey, hey, hey, Rio. What are you taking? You've got Eagles box and Bill's box left. You win. What do you take? I take the bills. You're going to take bills? What were you going to take? I honestly don't know. I didn't really say anything. You have a face just here for it. I'm a f***ing. Look at me. That looks so smooth. If the boys keep catching, we're going to turn up the speed. But I'm pretty slow right now. Got a casual. Dude, that's a f***ing genius, though. Is that going through him? All right, give him a little juice, Shane. Ooh, nice catch. That was a bad ball. Oh. Nice catch. Nice. Shane, give him two. I do not provide health insurance. This is a legally binding contract. I don't know, QB. That was hot. You just got to catch this one and you win. But you still have to catch it because Rio was first. Ooh, we're still going. We're still going. I don't know if I want to give him any more heat, Shane. Let's keep it right here. That's f***ing. Oh, my God. Oh, my God. He's got the f***ing mitts. I heard wins. Got the action figure, though. See me in the lamp? Wait, that's actually sick. What is that? Oh, it's soft. I thought it was that close, your first take. Well, let's be nice. Two lids. Two lids in the Bills box.  That's why it's the Bills box right there. The fondigs, Bills. That's fire. Oh, that's a dolphin. Oh, yeah. Tyree kill. Oh, that's the f*** with the orange face mask card. That goes into a f***. Tyree kill. The digs, Bills helmet. Dude, what was the CD lamp? I didn't see the CD lamp and sauce gardener. CD lamp signed 2021 football air series action figures. So it's like a rookie CD act. That's kind of fire. And the sauce? The sauce, dude. Hey, that's fire. Congrats, my God. Thank you, man. Thank you for coming out. The Eagles one going last is surprising to me. But hey, there's a lot of variety with this one lid. You know it's going to be a heater. It even hurts. Oh, my God. Oh, holy s***. The Kelly Green. Oh, my God. The old Philly helmet with Jalen and Hertz signature on it. That's fire. That goes crazy. That's so it's like they got out the old helmet for him to sign. Yeah, we got a Cardinal. Let's go. Got my Phoenix boy out here. Oh, Najee here. Najee. Oh, that's the real lesson. Yeah. They got like the picture and everything. This is, there's your authenticity, ladies and gentlemen. Pristine auction. Devin, Devin Hester. Yeah, Devin Hester. Oh, Devin Hester, bears. That's so fire. Huge shout out to everybody for coming out. You guys are amazing. I appreciate you guys so much. Absolute heater, Pristine auction. Thank you guys for setting the mystery boxes, you guys. Make sure you check them out. You can find all this stuff and more on there. And next time I do a mystery box, I'm doing this exact same thing. It's the best way to do it. So look out for that. I love you boys. Thanks for watching as always. Peace out.