The US Naval War College is a Navy's home of thought. Established in 1884, NWC has become the center of Naval seapower, both strategically and intellectually. The following issues in national security lecture is specifically designed to offer scholarly lectures to all participants. We hope you enjoy this upcoming discussion and future lectures. Well good afternoon and welcome to our third issues in national security lecture for this academic year. I'm John Jackson and I will serve as host for today's event. Due to the expected storm, we are not welcoming participants on campus today, but will function only on Zoom. I'd now like to offer the microphone to rare Admiral Chatfield for her welcoming remarks. Admiral, we have you muted, ma'am. Oh, and now I'm unmuted. Okay, thanks everyone. It is really great to be here. I know there's been a change of venue, so we're just logging on from home as well as everyone else. This is going to be a fantastic lecture today. We really appreciate your continued support. We hope that the word is getting out that we are inviting our broader community to participate as well as our staff and spouses. And so I'm looking forward to this event. My husband David is here with me looking forward to our family group after discussion. Yeah. Yeah. So this afternoon we have Melissa Puyamara joining us, military one source. She's a repeat offender. We get her a couple times each semester. Professor Jackson knows her as well and it's going to be terrific. Please, she's going to have a pretty full presentation, but there might be room for some questions. So ask away. I was just in an Alphonse meeting. I was amazed at all of the offerings that military one source provides our families. So please make use of that. Thank you very much. Admiral David, thank you. The goal of this series is to share a portion of the Naval War College's academic experience with the spouses and significant others of our student body. It's been extended to include the entire Naval War College family members of the Naval War College Foundation, international sponsors, civilian employees, colleagues throughout Naval Station Newport, and participants from around the nation. We will be offering 13 additional lectures between now and 31 May of 2022. And as a reminder, we are pleased to offer certificates of participation to all viewers who attend at least 60% of the offered lectures or 10 out of the 16. And whether you attend in person or via Zoom, just keep track of your attendance. Looking ahead on Tuesday 9 November, May on Tuesday 9 November, we will hear from Professor David Burbach, who will discuss the role of space in our national security. And as David has indicated, we will have a family discussion group meeting after the prepared remarks. We'll take a short five minute break between those two events.  This afternoon, our speaker will explore the basics of climate change and the many ways it interacts with national security. Global changes to climate have significant impacts to local food, water, and other resources, leading to potentially destabilizing effects on fragile state systems and migration. The countries and organizations that best understand and anticipate these changes will be best prepared to fight and win in the unstable climatic environment ahead. Commander Andrea H. Cameron U.S. Navy is a permanent military professor teaching policy analysis in our national security affairs department. And she is the founding director of the Climate and Human Security Studies Group. Her academic interests include climate change and security, climate and energy policy, human security topics, and civil military coordination during humanitarian assistance and disaster relief efforts. She is an internationally known expert who was awarded the 2019 ECO Educator of the Year award by the Renewable Now Network. She has earned a PhD and security studies from the Naval Postgraduate School and an educational doctorate and educational technology from Pepperdine University. It is indeed my pleasure to pass the digital baton on to Commander Cameron. Over to you, Andrea. Thank you for this great opportunity to talk with you all today about climate change and national security. It's a topic that has gained significant momentum within the Department of Defense for the last eight months. I'd like to thank Rear Admiral Chatfield and Professor Jackson for this exceptional lecture series, and I'm truly honored by the large audience as well as my colleagues and students that have joined me today. Today, I'd like to take the chance to share an orientation about the breadth of climate topics. I'll interweave some of the trends, what climate change is, and what the DOD is doing about it. In addition to teaching here at the Naval War College, I'm also part-time assigned as a climate environment policy advisor at the Office of the Secretary of Defense for Policy and Stability and Humanitarian Affairs, and I also serve on the Navy Climate Change Working Group. That being said, I am involved in many of the projects that you're going to hear about, but everything I say here is my own opinion and does not reflect the official position of the U.S. Naval War College, the Department of the Navy, or the U.S. government. I thought I'd start my talk today by answering the most popular question that I get, which is why do I study climate? How is this connected to security? First, we at the Department of Defense have a clear mandate to deter war and protect our country, and if we cannot deter war, how do we fight and win if necessary? We're not only tasked to do this today, but to plan for the future. For decades, we've known that climate is changing. Our scientific agencies like NASA and NOAA have been researching the Earth's systems for decades. Back in the early 90s, our government created the Global Change Research Program, and that's the unit that gives us our national climate assessments. Our intelligence communities have been investigating the climate-related risks to stability around the world. So if we, as the DOD, are going to fulfill our mandate to protect our country and continue to operate globally, then we must increasingly take into account how climate is going to change how we fight and win. I often get asked also, why don't you study something else, like hypersonic missiles or cyber unmanned systems? Thankfully, we have brilliant people, many of them my colleagues at the War College, who study these issues. But we're a very large organization in the DOD, so we can study ABC, XYZ, everything in between and much, much more. So what I am focused on is understanding the strategic operational and tactical environment, what it is, and how it will change, how it will impact our mandate. So let's look at warfighting. In the joint warfighting concept, we anticipate things like contested logistics and distributed operations. Our warfighting apparatus is more supportable if it does not require as much logistics in the first place, particularly water and energy. All domain operations is challenging already, but it gets exceedingly more complicated if we are reacting rather than planning for how the climate will impact each of those individual domains. We are less effective if our ships have to slow down because the water temperature doesn't cool the engines the way it used to, or our sensors don't work. We can't fly our aircraft if extreme heat makes our runways too hot to take off, or our aircraft carrier flight decks deteriorate faster. What happens when air density affects how our aircraft conduct missions or ocean acidification affects our ships' hulls or our undersea warfare capability? We lose countless training and readiness days a year because of black flag heat conditions, and we've built our infrastructure, our platforms, our sensors to all operate under a certain set of conditions, and those conditions are already changing. And if we start thinking long term, our buildings, our piers, our aircraft carriers are supposed to last up to 50 years. So if we protect our country now and in the future, our fundamental mission, I think we do this better and smarter by knowing how the environment is changing and how we can plan future missions and capabilities for these changes. Also, many think that the DoD should not be focused on decarbonization. That we have to choose between being combat effective or being green. I suggest that this is not a binary choice. In fact, I think it's a false dichotomy. Let me tell you up front, I am not going to argue that we should compromise our combat effectiveness for the sake of alternative energy. But we have a lot of critical vulnerabilities that come from our dependence on fossil fuels. And if we can develop effective and sustainable alternatives, we gain a substantial competitive advantage in the future war fighting environment. And finally, we at the DoD are the largest consumer of fossil fuels in the world, which puts us in the cycle of contributing to climate change. In the end, that means we're going to be called upon more and more around the world to respond to some type of climate-related event, whether it's destabilized regions, competing for resources or some type of disaster response. So to diminish the cycle of activities that will draw on our resources, we should be looking for better ways to operate. All of these challenges don't only affect us, but they're also having impacts on our allies and partners, as well as our competitors and adversaries. So in sum, if there's a way to be more combat effective, less vulnerable to our dependence on energy and water resources, gain a competitive advantage, prepare our capabilities accordingly, and help stall the cycle that'll continually draw on our resources, I think that's worth investigating. I also think it's worthwhile that anyone tasked with a mandate of national security should have some understanding of how we protect our country in the era of climate change. So those are some of the reasons I give. When people ask me, why do I study climate change? Dean, can you please bring up my slides?  Next slide, please. I'll start with a quick video from NASA. Did you know that the Earth's average temperature has risen over one degree Fahrenheit in the past century? It might not sound like much, but think about it this way. A one degree rise in your body temperature can lead to a fever. Five degrees can land you in the hospital. So guess what? Our Earth has a fever, and scientists believe Earth's temperature could rise by three to ten degrees this century. Why? For one thing, greenhouse gases in the atmosphere raise the temperature by trapping heat. And warmer temperatures means, you guessed it, less snow and ice. As they melt, what's left behind are darker patches of land and water. And guess what dark colors do? Here's a hint. Ever try wearing black clothes to the beach? Not a good idea. Black absorbs more sunlight, thus emits more heat and makes you warmer. Not good for you or the Earth. Here are some other possible symptoms of planetary fever, shrinking glaciers, shifting plant and animal ranges, sea level rise, more intense heat waves, stronger hurricanes. Experiencing any of these symptoms? It's time to seek attention right away. Remember the planet you save may be your own. Next slide. Build off the NASA video with a short science lesson. NASA has studied the Earth more than any other planet, and it's some of the best science in the world. So if you're not familiar with some of the science on climate change, I highly recommend the websites like NASA Global Climate Change, NOAA Climate, or the U.S. Global Change Research Program. They're the ones who put together our national climate assessments. So studying climate change is a science about the Earth as a system. You don't have to be a scientist or an environmentalist to kind of understand the basics and think about what it means to you. There's two big things to understand about this Earth system. First, it's a closed system that stops at our atmosphere. And second, everything that happens within it affects the air, the land, the water, and the ice in this closed system. Kind of like your body. It's a closed system.  Climate change is also called global warming, as the video mentioned. This is because of the greenhouse effect and the increase in greenhouse gases into parts of the system, the atmosphere, the land, and the water. In this NOAA graph of the greenhouse gases, you'll see that the most common gas is carbon dioxide, and about two-thirds of the portfolio. Methane is about 20%, and the rest is nitrous oxide or chlorofluorocarbons like freon and some other minor gases. As the chart indicates, more of these gases lead to more greenhouse effects and the overall change to the Earth system. Next slide. When NASA and other research organizations study the Earth, they use satellites, aircraft, ships, and submersibles. They've been tracking a few key measurements to understand the state of the planet. One of the biggest key measurements you probably hear talked about the most is temperature. We can also measure the amount of greenhouse gases in parts per million. We can measure sea level in millimeters per year and land ice in gigatons per year. What's happening is the temperature, gases, and sea level are all rising while the land ice is decreasing based on this warming. This science about the closed system of the Earth and how the climate would change has been understood for about 150 years, and we've had really good granularity on understanding the trends for the last several decades. This is something our federal science agencies and economic departments have been researching since the 1960s. President Johnson was the very first president to actually get a brief on climate change. But mostly what we've wanted to know was how this was going to affect American businesses and prosperity. It was a science and economic issue. Slide. Then in the 1990s and 2000s, we started to get our first indications out of the intelligence community that there's some risk here, not to just to our economics, but security risks. We finally got an official definition out of the government on climate security in the fiscal year 2020 National Defense Authorization Act. It called climate security the effects of climate change on U.S. national security and related infrastructure, on political stability at national and subnational levels, on security of allies and partners, and on ongoing or potential political violence and unrest. You will see me come back to these pieces of the definition throughout our talk today. Next slide. In addition to the global Earth changes that we've talked about with climate change, there are also many non-climate related environmental security issues as well. So here's a list of them, some of them you might be familiar with. Going back to the 1990s, Congress created within the DOD an organization called the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program, or CERDEP, and they could start researching these environmental issues around our military bases. There were a couple reasons for this. First, the DOD hasn't always been as conscientious about what we do on the basis, and this includes everything from our ordinance to firefighting foam, fuel, storage, and transfer, chemicals in the air, land, and water. Also, if we're going to build our infrastructure that's supposed to last for 50 years, you want to understand what's occurred on the base already, what we're currently doing about it, and what the base is going to look like 50 years from now. Fortunately, our researchers and our engineers have been way out in front on climate and environmental security, and we've developed some other programs along the way that really supports these efforts. Now we're going to take a big step forward because there's been continuity of progress over the last 30 years, but a lot of work has been done just in the last eight months. The DOD really started focusing on climate security based on Executive Order 14008, tackling the climate crisis at home and abroad, which was issued on January 27th, 2021. This gave a lot of tasks to the Department of Defense about climate security issues. Previously, we were working from the DOD Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap from 2014. The two big deliverables out of this Executive Order were just made public in the last couple weeks, so this lecture is very well timed. The first one released was the DOD Climate Adaptation Plan, and the second one released last week was the DOD Climate Risk Analysis. You might see these on the news right now because the Secretary of Defense and Deputy Secretary of Defense and many other are talking about it on the news. Next slide. The DOD Climate Adaptation Plan is very robust. It identified five different lines of effort for enablers, strategic outcomes, and an end state for adaptation. The end state is to ensure the DOD can operate under changing climate conditions, preserving operational capability, and enhancing the natural and man-made systems essential to the Department's success. Next slide. The second major document just released is the DOD Climate Risk Analysis. Now this one focuses on climate hazards, risks, and security implications around the world. Then we incorporate these considerations into our relevant strategy, planning, and processes. This is what I was focusing on at the beginning of my talk. How do we need to adjust our force management, force development, force employment, and especially how do we adjust our requirements in budgeting? How do we determine our future material requirements? Do we just keep buying the same way we always have without considering the changes? Or do we build climate into our future material requirements? Working on these will be the next steps for the Department of Defense. So now I'm going to change up my presentation a little bit. We've explained climate and environmental concerns and the latest guidance that's been issued. Now I'll talk about the strategies for addressing climate change and what the DOD is doing in those different categories. Next slide, please. The first thing that can be done is called mitigation. Within the closed system that is heating up from the greenhouse gases, we can do something about the amount of gas as we put into the system. When you hear about cutting emissions, using renewable energy or electric cars, or fuel or building efficiencies, this is all in the category of mitigation. As I mentioned previously, the DOD is the largest single fossil fuel consumer in the world. It's expensive, inefficient, and creates vulnerabilities based on our dependency. So the DOD is looking at improving this for installation energy, everything we need to run our bases, as well as operational energy. Operational energy is the energy required in the training, moving, and sustaining of our military forces and weapons platforms for military operations. Here's the thing, the dependence on this energy coming from fuel is a critical vulnerability. As important as it is for the cost savings and the emissions reductions, we can find ways to have less demand and provide energy that's more supportable than we minimize risk to our operations. It's also a critical vulnerability for our adversaries, so it's an important significant advantage on the battlefield if we can start to address this vulnerability. So mitigation is about decreasing the amount of gases we put into the atmosphere. Policy solutions are about mandating or incentivizing the behavior we want to change and disincentivizing behaviors we don't want to stop. So less fossil fuel consumption and more promotion of alternatives. The second approach that you hear about might be geoengineering or the interventions meant to counteract the gases we put into the earth's system. There's two big ways to do this. One is to remove the carbon and the other is to increase our ability to reflect the sun's energy back into space. So let's start with the greenhouse gas removal or carbon capture. With all this carbon dioxide in the air, water, and land, what kind of technologies can we develop that make sure it doesn't get into the system or can be removed from the system? Can we capture CO2 from the seawater or scrub it from an energy plant before it's released into the atmosphere or store it elsewhere? You may be familiar with regenerative farming or building more forests like the One Trillion Trees Initiative. These are some of the many efforts to pull carbon out of the atmosphere. Historically, the DOD has not focused on the strategy much and it's been left primarily to private industry, academia, and other government agencies. Now you may notice I keep referring to carbon dioxide specifically because that's two-thirds of the greenhouse gas portfolio. That's also what the DOD mostly generates. There's many big and small energy companies working on the carbon capture, especially if we can find a way to create energy in the process of removing the carbon. This could be an area that will get increased funding within the DOD research and development, and we can partner with companies for really innovative solutions. For this reason, what we've seen this is usually called energy security rather than climate change, but the good news is it does both and it's probably something the DOD will do a lot more of because Congress is applying more and more funding to these types of programs in our National Defense Authorization Ads. Another approach to large-scale geoengineering is to increase our ability to reflect the sun into energy back to space. Sometimes the terms geoengineering and solar radiation management are used synonymously, but the most common approach is spraying into the atmosphere to block the sun's radiation from getting into the whole earth system. It's basically a high-level chemical cloud. This is called stratospheric aerosol injection. The idea is built from the science behind what happens on earth when a volcano erupts. The earth has had colder periods after a large volcanic eruption because all the particulates in the atmosphere reflect back some of the sun's rays. The idea here is that on the planet, if we haven't been able to curb the warming from our own greenhouse gas emissions, we can run a large-scale experiment in engineering by injecting the sulfur particles into our atmosphere and manipulate it to achieve the same cooling. Naturally, this is very controversial because it can cause as many problems as it solves and we actually don't know until we do it. It can further exacerbate the environmental security issues we're trying to address and destabilize some regions of the world. NASA uses a great analogy that, at best, this is a band-aid or a tourniquet, and at worst, it can be a self-inflicted wound. It is not a substitution for mitigation, and it comes with significant ethical issues about whether we should do it. And to do it, it would involve significant multilateral cooperation because to do it on scale would be required of many states working together. So this solar radiation management option is really complicated. The last one is adaptation, and this is probably what you hear the most about. Next slide, please. These are the initiatives that reduce vulnerability. They're the preventative actions or the practices that avoid probable harm. This is where environmental management, planning, and disaster management come in. Because there are so many military installations, there's actually a broad interest in maintaining mission readiness of all of those bases. So this comes back to the research and engineering that started about 30 plus years ago. I already mentioned the brand new DOD climate adaptation plan. That was a significant step forward in setting a strategy for adaptation for the DOD. Another thing we've been developing over the last two years was the Army climate adaptation tool, which has now been adopted by the full DOD as the DOD climate adaptation tool. This gave us a way to standardize metrics to evaluate the hazard and risks to our bases. And we are rapidly trying to categorize all of our bases with these metrics. Another area in adaptation and understanding the issues is with sea level rise. So a big development released last year was the creation of the DOD regional sea level database. This resource looks at a variety of site specific scenarios for how sea level rise and coastal flooding will affect our bases. And finally, I'd like to mention the DOD installation exposure to climate change at home and abroad. This was released just in April. It sets out the most revised set of climate hazards in the DOD that we're concerned about and it assesses the risk by service, which I find very interesting. What was most interesting about the report was that every service, including Navy, listed drought as the number one climate hazard. Over 10 bases have been affected by natural disasters and extreme weather events from 2017 to 2021. Totally more than $13 billion in damages. That's $13 billion that isn't going to modernization, cyber, AI, unmanned systems, or any other priorities we might have. And given the trends, this will be an increasing proportion of our budget. So you will see that both mitigation and adaptation will become priorities because it will cost less to address it on the front end rather than on the back end. I'd also like to mention that you might hear the term resilience. Resilience is something you can get from adaptation. But some people use these terms adaptation and resilience interchangeably. Resilience technically refers to the capacity of an ecosystem to absorb disturbances without significantly altering its structural or functional characteristics. And it can return to its original state after the disturbance has ended. So if your military base is resilient, you can resume operations as soon as the event has passed. Or if your unit is resilient, you can adjust to changes. But resiliency isn't just about structural integrity or mission accomplishment. There's also a big psychology component to resilience. The ability of each of us as individuals to bounce back in a healthy way after a disturbance. A building resiliency has been one of the key buzzwords since the Obama administration, and it will probably continue because our force readiness is dependent on our resilience at all levels. So adaptation is what you do ahead of time, and resilience is tested in the moment. But you can see how adaptation and building resilience can both refer to preparing for climate hazards to come. So we've talked about what climate change is and what the DOD could do about mitigation, adaptation, geoengineering, and carbon capture. I'd like to move into some of the trends we will see. We couple these physical changes that I just talked about in the Earth's climate and environment with these trends. We can use strategic foresight than to take into account all of these trends and develop plausible scenarios about what we can plan for. These trends include population growth, urbanization, poverty, or the inability to earn a livelihood, food, water, etc. While I review these briefly, please keep in mind that none of them directly imply instability or conflict. There is no causal connection between climate change and conflict. For over a decade, some have referred to climate change as a threat multiplier, generally conveying that climate change interacts with other destabilizing factors which can lead to conflict. This is a great way to introduce people to understanding the risk. Today, the literature aims to move beyond this phrase by examining which specific factors, after exposure to climate hazard, can lead to a negative security outcome. However, there are many context-specific things that contribute to either a positive or negative outcome. There are different geographies, political structures, and cultures, and all of those things are important to how countries are going to manage their climate-related risks. Just as important within all these categories, we have a range of policies and practices about what we can do about them. So the most meaningful question to ask is what are the best interventions and policies that countries can adopt to reduce those risks to these trends over time? So what are some of these trends? Next slide, please. I'll start with a talk on population. Current growth trends have us at about 7.8 billion people on the planet at the moment. That's three times as many people that were on the earth just 70 years ago after World War II. By 2023, in two years, we go over 9 billion. By 2056, 10 billion. And almost 11 billion by the end of the century. And in looking at the chart, most of the projected growth is in Africa and Asia. By 2026, just a couple years from now, India will overtake China as the most populated country. In 2007, for the first time in human history, the urban population overtook the rural population and it continues to rise. By 2050, mid-century, more than two-thirds of the population in the world will live in urban areas. That's almost 7 billion people. Remember, we're only at 7.8 billion right at the moment. On top of that, there's significant poverty and extreme poverty affecting about one to two billion people. The most recent global estimates suggest that about one in three people in urban areas live in slum households. We can also talk about food security and the trends there. Food and climate interact in two big ways. First, food systems account for over one-third of the global greenhouse gas emissions. You have to take in food generation like agriculture, forestry, fisheries, and livestock production. And also the greenhouse gas emissions just from the storage and distribution of food. On the flip side of food security, we have spent years examining it, coming up with early warning systems and monitoring systems and tools and practices for what we can do about food security situations. This is something that has gained a lot of attention globally and we've made a progress in food. Another resource we're often concerned about is fresh water. We're approaching about two and a half billion people in the world that live with water scarcity. With water, it's not just about quantity but about quality. It affects so many things like sanitation and hygiene, production, pollution, food, energy. All of these things are connected. So even with a variety of good water management practices, we won't be able to prevent drought. And as I said, even within the DOD, the Navy, Army, and Air Force all listed drought as the dominant climate hazard to our own bases. And finally, Al briefly mentioned global public health, which has been our focus for about two years. The pillars of securing our health were the same before as they are now. How can we prevent, detect, and respond to a health emergency?  So what does all of this mean? It really means that we could be called upon to act in parts of the world where we haven't had a very large footprint before. It means that the military with so much capability and capacity might be called upon to provide humanitarian assistance more often. Now I've had this whole long talk and not really talked about humanitarian assistance disaster relief yet. This is for a couple reasons. One, climate change and environmental security are broader topics and I wanted to get you a sense of that. Also, living through extreme weather events is probably how most of you have already experienced the change in climate. Most climate policies are about getting ahead of the problems with solutions and development and capacity building. And humanitarian response, where the body of my research actually is, is by definition response. Something's gone wrong, whether a natural disaster or in a conflict. And what we at the DOD do supporting USAID in humanitarian response doesn't change whether the event is climate related or not. There's an evening lecture dedicated to humanitarian response later in this lecture series and I'm sure you will thoroughly enjoy it. So the biggest thing it means is that if we're called to both fight and provide assistance both at home and abroad, when do we start making tough decisions about what we can and cannot support? When are we in the position that we undermine our own security by being spread too thin? And that's why understanding the science and the trends and what it means is so important. And now I'll wrap up my talk with a few of the strategic implications. I'll talk about China, Russia, and the standard question we ask every leader what keeps you up at night? Let's start with some thoughts on China. I hear from a lot of people that China doesn't care about climate change. Most of because China and their urgency to develop has become the largest emitter of carbon dioxide since 2006. They are the world's largest coal producer and consumer. But saying that climate change isn't important to China is simply not true. They are dependent on energy resources for their continued prosperity and development just like every other country on earth. China wrote their first white paper on climate change in 2008. They looked hard at their vulnerabilities, controlling their own emissions, adaptation, and intensifying their research and development. You know they have looked at renewable energy and optimizing their energy mix ever since then. Why? Because China actually considers themselves one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate change. They're still the largest developing country with a large population, insufficient energy resources, and they already have a very fragile environment. So while they're still dependent on coal, they also lead in photovoltaic technology and they're the top producer of solar energy. So when they're talking about climate change, the conversation is usually about energy and how they mitigate climate change with some emissions reductions. But they are looking at the same climate science and future trends that we are, and they're going to make decisions in their own interests. They need resources, energy, food, water, and the means to move those resources. So what might a strategic climate adaptation foreign policy look like for China? They might be buying large swaths of agriculture around the world. They might be developing fishing infrastructure to fish globally. They might be doing science research to exploit the opportunities in the Arctic and Antarctic. They might be securitizing the resources and routes in the South China Sea. They're developing alternative energy through hydropower or solar. Most importantly, they're probably building infrastructure throughout the world to bring them the supplies they need. So while we may look at these different things through a separate lens, like an economic lens or a research lens, or even a means to political legitimacy, China is executing big components of their strategic approach to address climate vulnerabilities. And they're probably about 10 years ahead of us in thinking about this aspect of the security dynamic. Briefly, I've also heard that Russia doesn't care about climate change, which is also not completely true. There's more nuance to that. Russia is concerned because they have vulnerabilities, permafrost melting, increased wildfires, and a myriad of historic and environmental problems. But from their perspective, the changing climate may also mean net gains. Their petrol state where most of their economy is built on maintaining those interests. Arctic waters opening up for exploitation and commercial traffic means they can monetize the Northern Sea route. And there are opportunities as agriculture may shift upwards or northward.  And finally, what keeps me up at night? To me, one thing I look at more and more when I study climate change is the issue of migration, whether it's internal and there's more and more urbanization or whether it's across state lines or even continents. This really pushes some of the premises of our fundamental liberal values. These values believe in human rights. All people are equal. And if you believe in democracy, that people can determine their leaders. What happens when your city is just tripled in population based on migration? Do you welcome in these people? Do they learn your language? Do you learn theirs? Do they have to assimilate into your culture? Do they take your jobs? Do you have the social safety net to support them? Do you make them citizens, treat them as equals, let them participate in your government? I'm not defending protectionism, but I am identifying tensions around the world that are going to continue to push these liberal values of human rights and democracy to the limits. So as I keep studying the subject of what will we have to adapt to in the future, migration challenges on the liberal values and its potential for destabilization is a huge question yet to be thoroughly explored. Next slide. I would like to point out that the White House just released the first ever report on the impact of climate change on migration, which is a major step forward in thinking about the impacts of migration around the world. I will close out my talk today by returning back to the Navy. Next slide. I want to mention the one Navy Marine Corps team strategic guidance from the Secretary of the Navy. In it, combating climate change is part of maintaining maritime dominance in defense of our nation. Next slide. And to quote Secretary del Toro from that document, climate change increases risk and exposes vulnerabilities to our people, installations, platforms and operations and its impacts and expands the mission set for our naval forces, which we must support. As I wrap this up, I leave you with the notion that the countries and organizations that best understand and anticipate these climate changes will be the best prepared to fight and win in the unstable climatic environment of the next century. Thank you so much for listening to my talk today. I am standing by to answer your questions. Andrea, thank you very much for an outstanding presentation, not a cheerful presentation, but an important presentation. One question I'd like to have you address is to what degree is the denying of the science a problem that needs to be addressed. There does not seem to be a universal belief that global warming is a real thing. And to what degree do you think the world needs to come to a grips with the science? I think in general, there has been scientific consensus. You might hear the statistic 97% of the consensus is a global consensus. When you speak about climate denialism, that's primarily an American problem. It's been politicized. The science has been politicized. And then there's debates around that. Some people don't believe it exists. Some people think climate activities at the expense of our economic development is not a worthwhile tradeoff. And those narratives tend to get mixed. Increasingly, you see less and less about the denialism part of it and more about the economic tradeoffs. And it just shouldn't be a priority. We should prioritize other things like American prosperity and opportunity. I do think, though, mostly because of the with the DOD lens, the infrastructure in our military bases, every member of Congress wants the safety and security of their military bases and understands that they are vulnerable to extreme weather events. So more and more, it has been Congress driving the DOD climate responses for the last four years because they've been putting more and more reporting requirements in the National Defense Authorization Acts. One of our participants today asks if we are partnering with commercial entities to address some of these issues, is DOD reaching out to industry to see what they can help us with? Yes, absolutely. In a variety of ways, one in adaptation and resilience. That's not just working with private industry, but also working with state and local communities. Our bases don't exist in a vacuum. They have towns and cities outside them. That's where almost everyone works and lives. So we have to be in a partnership relationship for that. The way I see a lot of this and the talk about decarbonization and moving towards more electric vehicles, perhaps, is that's the direction of our future transportation industry and a lot of our industry. And we don't want our militaries to get left behind in that transition. So the energy transition is something we see as a strategic advantage. We want to partner with industry so that we can stay on pace with that kind of development around the world. What kind of alternative fuels are we looking at? There's a lot of talk of biofuels and others. Is that a viable approach to addressing some of these concerns? I have not heard a lot of biofuels talk recently. A lot of it is about electrification and battery technology. And some of it on our installations is about solar and wind, sometimes geothermal. Do you want to talk a little bit more about sea level rise, particularly since we have a naval focus? How big a threat is that? And do we actually see evidence that the next set of piers that are going to be built somewhere are actually going to be built in a location or to a size and configuration that will address sea level rise? That's a really important feature for the Navy, which is why I'm always surprised that the Navy listed drought as the number one consideration over sea level rise. We can build our piers higher, as you've seen at Naval Station Norfolk. The piers have gotten higher and higher, but the parking lots, the airfield, the roads driving into the base have not. So it is increasingly a concern. We also have naval air stations that are right on the water line. And when you combine sea level rise in general with extreme weather events, which push a lot of more water ashore, it is increasingly a concern about the long term sustainability of those bases. Now the problem with piers and you can move an airfield more inland, but you cannot move your ships inland. Somehow we will have to find a way with sea level rise to still have the piers accessible to people who are working on the ships every day, but also in a way that safely accommodates the sea level rise. We have a question here about several books written by Steve Kuhnen, Unsettled or Michael Schellenberger's Apocalypse Never. Are those books that you're familiar with in this area? They are not. I apologize. I am not familiar with the themes of those books. Well, there are some very interesting science fiction kind of stories, popular issues that indicate when they decided to launch these rockets into the atmosphere resulted in freezing the world completely and whatnot. So I think your issues with be careful of what you wish because you may wind up with unintended consequences. And for anyone interested in water security, the Dune books and latest movies is all the hottest rage for those in the community. That's right. It's hard to watch a Dune when it's raining like crazy outside. Much of the fossil fuels the naval aviation community expends as dumped at sea to achieve aircraft recovery weight on board the carrier. Are there efforts to consider these types of sustainability concerns when designing future war fighting platforms? I think that's that's one of my students. Great question. And I think we are really far ahead on thinking about the installation energy part of our portfolio and less advanced on the operational energy part. And that's really where a lot of our future focus is going to be. We're going to work on a couple things. One, are there alternative sources that we can use? Can we use the ones that we use more efficiently, which is I think what the student is alluding to? Or can we just drive down the demand for it somehow so that when we operate and we're dispersed in our operations, we don't need to resupply so that those kind of logistical questions are are less of an issue for operating in the future? Well, I think that's the last question we had. Andre, any closing comments that you'd like to leave us with? No, I you said it was a sad talk. I actually think it's an optimistic talk because I've been doing this for a couple years. And I will note that there has been significant progress of bipartisan support in Congress, major leadership within the Department of Defense and all all aspects, whether you're talking warfighting or engineers and installation management or planners, a lot of people are getting on board and trying to really think through what the climate change is going to mean for the Department of Defense and how we can do our mission best in the 21st century. So I think very optimistically about climate security talks in the future. That's great. Thank you very much for sharing that optimism. All right, that concludes our formal presentation. We'll take about a five minute break here, and at 5.30 we will come back and do our family discussion group meeting.


This paper proposes a new data-driven approach to rainfall runoff modeling by using a long short-term memory, LSTM, network, a type of recurrent neural network. This approach was tested on 241 catchments of the freely available camels dataset and compared to the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model, SACSMA, coupled with the Snow 17 Snow routine. Additionally, the potential of the LSTM as a regional hydrological model was demonstrated by transferring knowledge gained from regional scale to individual catchments. The results showed that the LSTM out performed the SACSMA and THINST plus and THINST Snow 17 model, indicating the potential of the LSTM for hydrological modeling applications. This article was authored by F. Krotzert, D. Klotz, and others.


They tricked me. One minute I was using someone's phone, Kumbay it was... I can't believe it. I don't know who to apologize to. I really don't. Anyway, Twitter, Facebook, Twitter, Twitter, hashtag is why in the morning we are about to wrap it up because it's about 9 something and the show ends at 10.  So we are asking you, in fact we're also asking our socials from Facebook, Twitter, Twitter, hashtag again is why in the morning we are trying to ask, at the why are you single? First of all, what kind of question is that? Hmm. Let me allow the panels to introduce themselves before we get into the heart of the matter. Good morning. Good morning. Good morning. You look so nice, but you always look nice. That's my weakness. Then I feel ashamed of it, because it is a weakness. I need my spring. I don't know what it looks like to be strong. Please introduce yourself. Okay, my name is Bellino Dede, I'm a student. Student of life. I don't know when I'll really graduate, but eventually I will. Please when you graduate, give me your notes. I will. I will. I'm a professional photographer, journalist, CBA TV, Somali land. Wow. So today, apparently the question is, why are you single? And please allow me to state my definition of single. According to the government, when you sign a paper, when you're feeling anything, it asks you single or what? Or married. It does not say in a relationship, it does not say it's complicated. It does not say, oh, we're in love. It's just a single or married. And according to that definition, I am wanting to believe that we are both here single, it's Baba, and the only one who is not here is our lovely Bellino. Am I wrong? I'm not talking to you.  That's a problem. You can just say that all of us here are single. Me and you. Me and you. Okay. We don't know about her. Maybe she can tell us, but allow him. That's a good question. But before we venture into that, what is being single? Single love does not mean you're in a marriage. Many people are couples living under one roof, but very single. Being single is just an emotional vacuum that is experienced by both. The ones that claim to be married, and the ones that are maybe lonely, or I don't know what to call them. So it's like everybody is single, so everybody is married. Though marriage now gets into, maybe, it's a bit deeper. But when it comes to being single, it's like everybody is single. It depends on the situation at hand. So depending on your situation, how about it? Personally, I'm not single, but maybe lonely. That is so deep. I hope you understand. So what? You can be in a situation, but you are lonely. The reason why I'm saying that nobody is single, even the people that you think that are single, they are emotionally attached to somebody somewhere. Maybe they're not only just living under the same roof. That person may be far away from her or from him, but they are emotionally attached. While there are people who are closely, their body lean on each other every day in the same house, but very single. It's hard for me to understand. The two parties, even the one that is emotionally attached, distance relationship, they understand. I'm not single, I'm married. I'm married because of the legal process. I don't have to go to court. I don't have to go to court. I don't have to go to court because of the legal process. I'm not single. I'm an example. So what kind of features do you like in your washing machine? Some people say that they don't have a good personality. I wash the machine and say, I don't have to go to court. I don't have to go to court. I'm not single. What if you employ somebody to do it? Are you married? If you employ somebody to do that for you. Do you call yourself married? We know you are handwriting. Is it about somebody who washes your clothes or cooks for you? When someone comes to wash your clothes, they basically come to wash and live. They don't have to go to court. Some people don't know about that. Do you say that you're married? No, you're not married unless it is a legal process to me. After all, yes. Let me tell you, please. It is by law. For around six months, you are now legally bound to this person. I want to tell them support. Who keeps the tally of the six months? Majiran. Obviously it is impossible. You are now married. Your innocence is wonderful. I like how he is thinking so simply. There is no rule. When they were writing their law, they didn't know what they were doing. It was just being written. There is no law.  When you are married, you are single. Do you know that? I have a question. This is coming from a conversation I had with the viewers yesterday. Do you trust too fast? Do you think you are in love? You have been in a relationship for months. Now you want to do business. There is no sleep for the weekend. Is that possibly a reason? Is that because we trusted so much? Is that why we are single? You trust so much and very fast. When you get into a relationship, you don't really know who this is. You claim to be attached. You have confidence in yourself. People should understand what you want in life. When you know what you need in life, that self-discovery, the mother of all discoveries, that is your problem. If you just meet a man with a jeep and you think this is what I really need in life, you see another one on motorbike, you think this is the one I need. You trust too fast. Then you will get hurt. They don't meet your expectations. This jeep was just hired. My brother Kaisu is in a good suit. What suit do you think this is? Kaisu Confirm. There is a lot of fakeness in Kenya. When we talk about love, when we talk about love, we are not in a relationship. We are talking about the public and private. We are talking about the post that we maintain. We are talking about the post that we maintain. We compare with the previous guy. He is the one who is in a relationship. He is hot. How many slices of bread do you eat per day? The first two weeks I don't have any bread. The next two weeks I don't have any bread. I don't have any bread. You don't make it sound like a bad thing. It's not a bad thing to open up. You have to at least leave something for yourself. Sometimes you have to give them some things. Sometimes you have to give them some things. My mother was aborted. My brother is in whatever. He doesn't do whatever. That's too fast. When I was in high school, my teacher used to teach me how to touch my daughter. The guy is just listening.  Why do you feel the need to throw someone's insecurities at them? Because I can do the same to you. What makes you think that you have the right to throw someone's insecurities? That is horrible. You have to be fast. You have to be able to do whatever you have achieved. Sometimes you have to give them some things. You have to make a lot of noise. When it comes to that time in school, you have to be able to do whatever you want. So perhaps it means that you don't have the right to throw someone's insecurities at you. But now that you've told me that you have the right to throw someone's insecurities at you, we are just giving an example of a teacher. Maybe your children have the right to throw someone's insecurities at you. You know? Anyway, I want to ask you a question. My DJS today had a question for me. But today we are asking you about your single. At some point, I asked her to complain. She said, you complain. I trusted him. I told him to buy you socks. Are people single because of past traumas? That also contributes. Also, women, they are gifted in talking. They really know how to talk. A man can take you six months before he tells you where he comes from. But just one day with a woman, I don't know if it's a gift from God or they just acquired it along the way. But they are gifted. Women can talk. They can trust a lot. They love their heart. When a woman gets in love, that's why they get hurt so fast. And when they get hurt, they remove it. The way they got into it, they also come out just like that. A man can be with a man for six months. He's not even in love with you. He's not in love. But a woman is already in love. I don't know if it's a gift from God or what. We trust too much, but it's not the right thing to do. It's a gift from God. God gives people those bad things. From the garden of Eden, it all started there. If we trust God, it all started there. We don't have the content. God should come and take it away from us. We trust too much. Take the wheel. Whatever. It's not good for us. God just take it away. We have a couple of comments on our socials. It's on Facebook, on Twitter. My Salty is just going. Where is it going? The things that I've seen because we're asking why are you single. You want to talk to them about lack of capital. It is not even lack of. I don't know primary or high school. You are saying inadequate capital. You find that you are fair. Where is it going? I want to talk to them about lack of capital. My wife started to get me in a box. Does it work? It doesn't work. We all had a bad relationship in the past. I feel it's unfair to act in response to such an experience. What is in the past should be left in the past. and that's how I live my life. Can I just borrow from this? Because I have once been persecuted for someone else's sins, and I didn't understand. I was like, why are you always angry? Like, I haven't done a thing, but all of a sudden, I get angry, so you just automatically believe I will also do it to you. How do we help you? Transcendentalism, which we don't believe. Wow, come up again.  You know, she has taught us about how women have that habit of talking the same way. You meant it as a general thing, right? Every woman talks a lot. Mostly. Mostly. Not all of them. I do not talk. My sister also does not talk. I do not talk. Okay, then most of the women, right? And then the same values, maybe, if you are a woman, you will have a bad feeling. If you are a woman, I probably think... I expect. I am sorry, but if you are a woman, you will have a bad feeling. Probably, you will have the same feeling as a woman. Is that not your fault? You are not after a standard type of woman. So you are talking in a box, bro. In ukulele, but you know, there are choices and preferences, right? So it's your fault, but you want to blame the showreels. Help me. It is a wrong notion. Help me. That because you are hurt by Joseph, definitely Peter will do the same to you. Well, now you go there saying what's mean and doves. You know, in a relationship, it's about what you want, not what he wants.   But I will only take that which I want. Yeah. I believe that if I get into a relationship, I will dictate my emotions towards you. Yeah. You cannot force me into your own.  It is about me first. In this relationship, it's about me first. Then we, you see. So there's no way I'll compare. I will crucify Peter because John did this to me. You know, Peter may be another God sent. No, no. So we must be very flexible in our thinking that even though John did this to me, I'm trying with Peter again. It may work. Do you feel like that's selfish? She's only, she's thinking about her first. It is right to think about yourself first because you comes first. And the smartest thing you've said all day. True. But when it comes to dating two girls, one Haisha, next Maku. When you know who you are, probably you have a notion that, eh, Makua doesn't know who you are. So it doesn't mean that you're going to tell the person that none of them know who you are. But you have to be careful with the person. You don't even tell them. But you just, you know what I'm saying? I'm not going to tell you what I'm saying. So it's pet pet pet things. So you be careful with Maku. You know, one thing why I always say it's about me first. Sometimes the mistake was you, I said don't, don't, don't, don't, don't amena. So when you go to Mary, it is still the you. The, the two, those are variables. But you are the constant here. So it is you, the mistake may be you. So you have to check yourself. What did I do to Mary? Okay, she used to demand a lot of money. What do I do so that this one does not fall in the same trap? Let me go and do some Django so that I get money. Yes, so the mistake, you have to accept that everything begins with you before it goes to the other person. Before you blame amena or whoever, check yourself. But if the girl plays you and Maku is right here. Plays whoever you and she was playing you. You know some people will play you because you're not always there. Not really physically, not physically. But emotionally, have you ever seen who I'm, who I'm to text, just to move it? Then I'd have to do the following. It's just within Nairobi. No, that one is not good. Those are emotional disconnects. Does it have airtime? Ah, ah, no. But again, it's just an emotional disconnect. But it's just, there's just an emotional disconnect. It's just an emotional disconnect. It's just an emotional disconnect. And I say, well, it's just an emotional disconnect. So, remember, airtime is out of question. Maybe I'm a shikana, you know. Shikana. Could just say hi. Two days. Two days to make a message. Which I'm jibu. At Ioni, I'm committing. But you can get time to eat. You can get time to go to the toilet. You can go, time to tease around with women around in the office. But you don't have time to respond to my texts. But women sometimes are so demanding men. Demanding how? When I tell you good morning, then you reply back, morning. I go to my hustle. You can chat later or during the day. Yes. Is that OK? Are you trying to say that women are lazy? Or we are idle? No, no, no. They are not lazy. They're very... They're very... Then you sit down and say, please, this is the time we need to chat. The mistake is ill yours. Because men were given dominion by God. Where did you take that dominion? We still have it. No. When you complain that you... Dominion sign is out, it won't. They now complain women... Yeah, they complain too much, these boys. And I chat too much. Why don't you call him? Well, sir, I am a fault. This is me personally. You text me, I will text you back in the next three to five business names.  Dominion is just a quality that I have in me. Maybe it's metoxic tape. I'm just not good. If none of you ever say, camera off, we are good friends, to know where to make a t-shirt, because what are you doing with me? While I, the next time you hear from me, is when you see me again. It's not my fault. So, maybe perhaps I want to help you. I really do, but I also take t-shirts as a point. But there's a solution to that too. What is the solution? If you can't text me, there's another option. What is the solution? Maybe you are available. Yes, that's why we say, I am a snob, I can't meet anyone. But somebody is not available, you can't see him, he can't respond to your text. And then you still claim you are very single. Why? Yes, very, very single. I don't want to join other sweats. Yes. If you can give me another comment, so that we give the link to my case, or say it's in the corner, squeeze it. That's why if I come to Facebook, what's the fortune on Twitter? Hashtag is on why in the money we're asking you, why are you single? Why are you single?   Why do you call a register, bro? Get out. Whether. None of us are single. We are all single. Sorry, my job is to have a quarantine, I think boys, Because women need to be stable Women need to be stable I just want to say now ladies principle is that you must be financially stable Is it just today that I might have been there?  Who are you dating? Who are you dating? Who are you dating? I am Kali I love to chat with you I have a high course of relationship maintenance Who are you dating? Sometimes I get stressed How? I have commitments I get messages, texts You know What are you talking about?  I don't complain Why? I am not going to complain I am not going to complain from the heart I am not going to complain from the knees Not me I am talking about men That's a big burden to carry Be careful It is very true that I support I am not supporting men who support me When I met Mr.Yana He was about to see the future for me The future she has a bright future From behind and whatever People are happy People are happy I don't love this person This person has attached I didn't see She keeps on taking I have a question What if the reverse It is very rare But it exists Rare No, it's not rare, it's just because we don't like to talk about it You don't like to talk about it That's why it exists and it is very populated That's why Why are you behaving like you're the only one with powers to see And eat and run Ah, we can also taste and run No, no, love from their heart But whatever is in my heart, I can neither eat or drink It's not stuck there Do you know our heart is big enough to love more than one? True Because you think there that we love you You know we are great pretenders You can love eight men at a time And everyone thinks it's just You are my potato, you are my avocado, you are my stew And life continues It's something that maybe it hurts At the end of the day it hurts I think this is why Even the thought of Okay, perhaps maybe before we go back to the comment The thought of You may be from a relationship or a situation And then now you're healing and everything is okay And you want to move on, you know Because no one likes to be alone, no man is an island True Is it possible that I don't And hypothetical I would not want to get into another one Because I just don't want to start again Like what are your hobbies? What do you do? Like such transit in our lives What do you want to be That's being selfish to yourself That's being selfish to yourself Because God says it is not good for man to be alone So who are you to say you want to be alone? The only difference here What people are mistaking here That somebody like the My brother here is putting it That when you are legally married You see some legal processes and what That's what people are mistaking Nobody is not emotionally attached to somebody In this world It's not that they may be a part Or maybe the bond may not be that strong But at least There are two kinds of thoughts That we have to think about Yeah, it's somewhere Even if you are not The day was not good If you are talking about You feel But what people think here That when you are in a marriage I tell you these people that are in marriage Most of them are very single They are under one roof because of the kids And say if not for the kids I don't know what this Nyanja is doing in my house No, no As I know you are only 21 years But you may turn to be a Nyanja You see So these people cannot claim to be in a relationship Even if he wants to discuss something He'll rather call his grandmother back at home And discuss that But you are there Learned with everything that they want So people can be very very single Even in marriage So that's the confusion here People think that when I say I'm single Then maybe there is no man in my life Oh God They are men Not even just a man Men It's only different now How you treat them And perhaps we are many than women in Kenya Right? No, men are not many But we know how to play them Men You can play even eight of them You know you don't know It is a matter of You are forced to Not for this Personal choices Yes, but now I have a problem But no I have a problem But no Brian is not at home Brian is not at home Kevin and Food But it is wrong Najiba is not at home But it is wrong We must accept it is wrong Why do we play these games? Why do we feel like we need One person to do one thing Why do we assign different I won't say men But men and women in our lives Who you Who you are Who you are Who you are Who you are Who you are I always say For example I have a Duncan Sure Whenever I am in there food And I eat My husband comes He plays with sphere It is a sphere And thoseковاس I play together Why do we play these games Are we afraid to Però I don't know You don't know? I don't know I don't know Because you have to sign everybody Why don't you know how to cook? I don't know Then you don't even deserve I don't know I was not born to suffer You are suffering Let me tell you You know why you are suffering For you to talk to brand to give you rent It costs It's not just that easy If you don't have the money My friend told me I don't know So at some point When you come back to yourself You are not happy Because if you are happy You will be contented with the one If you can do everything But why would somebody do everything for you?   No! Once you have a child, you have to pay for it! You have to pay for the food you have. I'm a Ulipe. You have to pay for it. Why are you like this? No, you should know. When I was in the KFC, at least I could say I'm a selfish person. That's selfishness.  You're not the only one who proposes, you're the one who does.  You're not the only one who's being selfish. See, you're not the only one who's being selfish.    Because it's a If it's I can't prove it I really can't But it's just hearsay And this is what I hear That you We are connected Or rather they are connected So that's the age I am born I am happy Some people are angry Some people are angry Some people are angry Some people are angry I don't want to join I just want to click And the main thing I want to say is that I am a delin Delin is the main thing I want to see Why is it like this? Do we adapt for some? Yeah, those are just environmental influences But it is wrong Because if you sit somebody down as an individual If you put a building in a place where you simulate a group You can't come back If what she is going through is not that good story It's not good news Yeah, so I don't know what's going on I don't know what's going on I don't want to watch TV to check and check I don't know if we are happy No If you sit down such a person and tell Surely Are you really happy? I am just managing So that's why we don't have the rate of committing suicide Especially to that bracket Why? If they are happy They are happy Why? Because they can't accept that If they are happy If they are happy If they are happy You know, please God over your life My choice It's up to you Okay, guys Come, come, come Give me some more feedback Thank you, your daughter from Facebook right from your heart On Twitter That went straight to the test Any boy child don't know where is that And is she in there? No, it's not there I don't know where she is I think it's God Okay Congratulations Not even God but the head Congratulations We have Raspashir where Robo says he's watching at a forest That's where Bedia says he's much well-tuned If some other boy says he's well-tuned in Kaka-Mega County well-represented Walter Sanitizer twice I am Walter Rogena from South More who? More Yo Hey There's no person who's single Maybe I can't go a candle So, thanks Is it possible to have a candle in your single? I thought a candle in a puljah when you already have a main But hold that thought Joffrey Moutoko says have money so that you may have 10 ladies I don't know how to react to this but I've also heard someone saying Wait after Ella or some other day later I don't know if it's the same thing I don't know if it's the same day or some other day Sebastian Sebastian I don't know how to say it I don't know I think it's easy I don't know We know how to make money We may make money these days Thank you So if you think that will lure me into your nonsense just with your pain I think you're making a very big mistake Because Some of us some of most of them nowadays they have their money Yeah, they're working like this lady's here because he's I think he's not here for free So So I think I have some cash No, it's not I don't know I don't know I don't know I don't know I don't know I don't know I don't know I don't know I don't know I don't know I don't know Thank you Hashtag is one in the morning Okay To keep my list here guys As we continue Remember this is a white 5-4 on Facebook White 5-4 on Twitter Hashtag is a white in the morning And my gym says I'm single because I want to focus on my dreams Plus it's more precious I can do in a than a relationship I love being featured over the ones to have life as fun life as short as long as you have time left in the world to make the most of it Hope that case is Hashtag on the morning Auntie Waharia Whoa, you're a lead doctor Nah, I don't even know Baby Oh, baby A lead come out It's lack of capital to start a relationship TJ ordinary says because of the love of my life disowned me at one time Oh Maybe maybe you'll find another one Okay Hashtag is a white in the morning Auntie Waharia Gureki Hey Because of lack of money Are we an investment Are we a small business enterprise an SME Why? At the lack of capital Anyway Emma and James says I'm single For now better single I want to become a better person myself follow my dreams Okay, okay and not be a disaster in a relationship I like that you're trying to get to know yourself before you get to know someone else But Teviah what you from Meru I'm not single I am taken Like it went on to Berlin Hmm Could be opposite Give over Ilan Hmm He knew me I think And then Yeah Kayewa My thing I said Clevus says Jew Stucky Kua plural You see this is sad now Why? No, why now? I accept Just accept Yes, I do Stating out So because Because to lose is the wrong Hey bro Why won't you lose me? Hmm To come as such To the man who says me and me and me Ah Baby Good man James Hi Sean Bailey says Hi guys Because I'm single I don't have Though I'd love to have a partner Sam Eliquus says Only God knows Clemora says I'd rather have kids In a single life Has it a song Who says you're like a Germanist or one? What? That must be a ring See that Your honesty is Fabulous Thank you for being so honest Take a hope Since I'm single Because no girl is yet to understand me As I am Most of them Trying to change me Okay, but Isn't that a compromise? If you don't have a break Count it Ah Shhh If you don't have a break I'll be sure Papa was Tix's attack Of a delivery cut Can't cut trees Yes, yes That's how it is Yes Yes That's how I am Spongebob says Neighboring countries I'm saying I'm not going to talk about money Money Women are naturally expensive Do you agree? No Do you agree? What I think Is happening is If you're In a relationship And I've Spoken to a guy about this He I don't know what I'm talking about She's like Siwa Willie I don't know 4-3-4 But I'm saying What's the point of Having someone If you're not going to spoil them That's what he said Meras kumuliza He said What's the point of having someone If you can't spoil them And how do you spoil someone There are languages of love Yes Yes During creation There was a provision Before he could bring Eve Why do you think God had to Provide for Adam Before he could bring Eve He gave him animals Fruits Word and all Because he knew the one that is coming Is a consumer Yes That's it So telling me that you cannot provide A man who cannot provide For his family or for a friend The Bible calls that one That is worse than a pagan And you cannot challenge the Bible That's it So in another word To support my argument That women are naturally expensive Not expensive They should be provided For that expensive I don't know where you are coming from It is just the same thing No, if you buy me a hundred kachi for five That's expensive No, that is not expensive Yes If he is earning kachi Bob a day And you have asked for 100 kachi 100 kachi Are you not paying expensive Wait until you earn 100 Thank you Don't get into a relationship So lack of money after I give Not lack Not money Kill him too Can I say that Tell God to give the provision Yes Kill him too Can I say that Yes Yes And he is not alone If you want to be with him He is not alone Yes For wisdom A wisdom Not wisdom Ask for wisdom We will bring In fact, there is a sense here too How many concubines How many women do In conclusion guys We cannot live without them Let me start with you Can I finish with you Whatever I can say In conclusion There are a lot of people who are single And they don't know whether they are single You think that you are dating But in real sense you are single You are in the same town as you are in Braio Braio is totally cheating on you You know, you don't know if you are single or not So the both of you are single And you don't know And you don't know if you are single or not You don't know if you are single or not You don't know if you are single or not So I could urge every person to be honest And I can say to you If it is love You make it out of yourself First you Then we That is me In conclusion What I would say It is not good to be alone At least find somebody that you can confide into A confidant that you can share Not necessarily bad Remember a relationship Then we have to tie it with the bed It is not good If you want to interfere with the bed You have to audition I am not interested No, no I don't want to interview No, no If you want to interfere You are definitely going to fail So let's just be good people God does not want us to be lonely What we should People should be talking is about lonely When we talk about single Being single and in marriage Thus there is a lot of confusion Because the married are single The single are married Yeah Somebody the man that you think is by your side As your husband Is so much emotional They attach to the woman outside Not even you So he is married there Not to you But the paper The one that he was talking about Legal whatever Is with you So what is it helping you with So I think people should just be true To themself Seek God's wisdom And relish Live on Bible statistics It's not good I understand upon them There are seasons for everything I mean seasons for every There is a time to be single There is a time to be in a relationship There is a time to be married I used to really really really Really Have that biological clock ticking inside of me I want to get my Until one day someone told me Everyone inside the marriage Is fighting to get out Out When everyone outside Is fighting to get in So guys Relax Okay Enjoy where you are right now There is a time for everything Thank you for staying with us It has been my honor To escort you To hold your hand To dance a little bit with you For a winding morning Confidence of water from Facebook Quite fun for channel On Twitter Hashtag this one The morning we have a repeat From 2 p.m. Or instead You can go to our YouTube channel That is the quite to find for each channel We insist that you have a fantastic day But please remember it's a daily thing Monday all the way to Friday So that means we do it again Tomorrow and the day after My name is Valentine See you and I see you Bye


start this address by commanding the very excellent work that His Excellency the governor of Anambra State, Governor William Viano, has done in driving economic development in this state. I want to make this point because the economy of Nigeria likely depends on the effort that is made at the sub-national level, that is at the state level. It is the aggregation of the good work that is done on the states that endures to the great economy that we hope and that we are working for, for this nation of ours. Anambra State's revenue has increased from about 10.4 billion in 2014 to 26.37 billion as of 2019. And this is an almost 152% increase in the state's IGR. I'm not sure what the current figures are, but if the figures of the last year or anything to go by, then we would have seen a significant increase. The enabling environment and ease of doing business measures that have been implemented in Anambra State have seen it become one of the fastest growing manufacturing hubs in the country. Newey which houses key local manufacturing companies, including Inosan vehicle manufacturing, Tommy, Tommy Industries, Chickasin Group, amongst others, is evidence of the entrepreneurial ability of our people, of the Nigerian people and the drive that is possible, but also importantly, the enabling environment that states can create and can endure. And what we've seen here today is evidence of that. We're coming from Obunike where we launched a shoe making shared facility which has very good equipment for shoe making, state of the art equipment for shoe making. And this is a joint effort of the federal government of Nigeria and Anambra State to make it easier for the shoe making ecosystem in Obunike. To be able to manufacture shoes at not just good quality shoes, but really high volume. And today we've been able to launch that. And I think that it's important to continue to emphasize that the way that economy will develop is through small businesses powered by states and assisted as much as possible by the federal government. But this is all the more impressive, considering the fact that a lot of these economic progress that we've seen in this state is despite the limitations on electricity supply in the state. Following the creation of Anambra State in August 1991, industrial as well as commercial activities grew significantly and very quickly overwhelmed the existing supply arrangements to all kind in particular, which was then the new Anambra State capital. So this led to the eventual installation of a one unit 40 MVA 132 slash 133 KV mobile transformer substation, which was erected then by the TCN in Oka. But in recognition of the deficit of the willing capacity in the state, the Niger Delta Power Holding Company through the NIPP committed to undertake to upgrade the transmission infrastructure in Oka by constructing this new 132 33 KV substation equipped with two 60 MVA transformers. This project was energized and achieved technical commissioning as we've heard from the migrant director at about 430 PM on Thursday, 26 November, 2020. Since then, this new substation has been in service providing 33 KV evacuation capacity for at least a hundred megatopath through its two units of 60 MVA, a total of 120 MVA. One day they are looking and we're talking about the 132 33 KV transformers and this is for the whole of the Oka and environs of the EEDC distribution network. The commitment of the administration to ensuring the completion of this Oka NIPP 132 KV grid substation now provides a heath or two unavailable 70 megahertz additional power capacity for driving industrial growth and boosting the economy of the state with positive knock on effects on employment and the socioeconomic upliftment for residents of the states. As you have heard, this is not just for commerce, it is also connected to the new ultra-modern airports at Umeri. So we're looking here at a substantial addition, not just to power capacity, but more importantly to the capacity of the residents of this state, businesses in this state to be more effective in their business. So it is really my very special pleasure today to join you in congratulating the governor and all of the people of the state and also to thank the NDPHC for the great work that they have done. And in the next few minutes, we'll be commissioning officially the new Oka 120 MVA 132 slash 33 KVS substation in Anambra state. Again, I want to commend all of those who have done the great work that has led to this particular day where we're able to do this commissioning and to assure you of the partnership of the federal government in doing all that we can do to ensure that our people have the perfect environment for doing business. Thank you very much. God bless Anambra state. God bless the federal republic of Nigeria.


It's the end of the day, almost time for the bell How many options will you sell? Fire up your platform, get ready to enter But first let's get the mindset centered Hey, hey, let's get half success Find what works for you and forget the rest Stats and probabilities is what I'm gonna dismiss Greed and doubt, focus on the process Not the money and the profits will flow like honey Power our lives, let's start the show Come on trade hackers, get ready to go Zero date options, time to make bank Get locked and loaded, then be ready to play What's up everyone, welcome to Power Hour Live Monday, October 16th Hope everybody's doing well Big bounce back today S&P up 45, NASDAQ up 180 Russell up 28, Dow up 300 NASDAQ, the strongest of the, oh no Russell strongest of the bunch Volatility, big contraction 10%, VIX is down 10% After being up as much as 20% On Friday So I did a AM ratio, hit first profit target Got stopped out for profit on the second portion I tried to do a RIC After it bounced, it started kind of consolidating Around right here, around 40 minutes After the market opened and then it kind of took off Didn't get filled, so I missed out on RIC Anyone else take RIC? Getting on where he got in, I would assume it should have hit No RIC And then Once we got up to Kind of just a discretionary trade I took once we pushed up, basically to the top Where we got up to the peak of October 10th And then October 12th, kind of that price level I sold some calls And took those off when we got that little flush Now we got this bounce, I started playing around With my JSP back test That for strong short squeeze up 1% Playing around with it, looking at 0.7% To see what that was like, looked pretty good So I got in some JSP's as well, which I'm still in Up a few hundred on that Price can get up to about $43.80, those should hit For power hour though, we do have the short squeeze So Trunch 1, I'll be doing 2 to 1 ratio So I need to buy some longs Looks like we should be 5 wide for Trunch 1 Let's see where we settle out here in the next minute or so Put on a 1.3 DTE double calendar Earlier, it's up a couple hundred I'm also, after I get into Trunch 1 I'm also going to put on a 2.3 double calendar To put some more longs on the Thursday when JP is talking Alright, so 75.70s 75.70s for Trunch 1 Ratio, trying to get filled at 10.90, filled at 10.90 And getting a little bounce right after I got in 2.3 reminder, so what I was saying there Oh, got filled on some JSP's At 50% on that little bounce So we got Powell speaking on Thursday So I put on a 1.3 to get some longs on that day I want to put on a 2.3 as well So bear with me for just a minute here I have any overlapping strikes The 35s and the 20s Okay, 4.15s Let's try this Yeah, sorry, I was just, I'm trying to get filled On a 2.3 double calendar here On a different monitor And my order is getting rejected for some reason I'm trying to figure out why SPX bouncing Hmm Well, time Alright, I'm gonna have to figure it out later Something, I'm doing something wrong So I'm just gonna, I'm just gonna skip it Alright, back to Power Hour Nice little push up, helps the ratio Also good for the JSP's Focus, yes, need to focus So I saw some folks got stopped at On the AM ratio It looked like he had the 70 strike Versus the 75, so that just That little difference helped But some others hit their profit targets as well I got in within 30 seconds of the bell In fact I got in and literally within Two minutes I was up like 13 or 1400 bucks Just got some quick contraction And then on that initial 5 minute bar, that big push up That little pull back It kind of pumped the volatility back in I was only up like 7 or 800 But quick, really quick contraction out of the gate I got a, yeah I was pretty fortunate I got a good fill Yeah, I used the trade link stop On AM ratios, yep Quanteo I'm doing it Two puts versus one call Make sure you can check the trade plans channel And you'll see all the All the links to the different strategies SPX is over a half percent higher from the open That's why I'm doing a two to one Man that, if you guys caught the Weekly video update, I talked about this a little bit But Friday was weird, right? Like, I mean the S&P was down Around a half percent, Dow was actually green And yet VIX was up 20% And so, as you guys, as I mentioned And as you guys saw, I started reducing risk Shedding some positions that I thought Needed to be let go In anticipation of something, I thought Something fishy is going on, it still might be But now we got a big bounce back Big ball contraction, so who knows But sometimes, I very rarely ever do that But Friday was one of those days where I was just like Something just doesn't smell right And when something doesn't smell like smell right I just feel like I need to reduce risk I left an F on so that this all contraction really helped Some of those portfolio margin trades for sure But it's very interesting So I got some more JSP's that'll come off at 250 They're currently trading at 320 Our time flies need a little push lower We got the one here It's got a double calendar adjustment, double diagonal It's gonna either need to sit here Any more push up, any more ball contraction It's just gonna take longer If we get a little bit of a pullback tomorrow Might be able to start peeling off for some profit And we've got the one with October 27 With the single calendar adjustment Looks like we're pretty close to break even on that one Again, could use a little pullback And then we added a calendar adjustment To our no third one today And that one's down a little bit Pretty well centered though I've got a 5.7, it's up a little bit It was up more I'll close that out at the end of the day tomorrow Short strangles and MES and QQQ Or like in this ball contraction Oil still not contracting much Dead centered, but a little bit down on that I did put on a long VIX call spread Just as a hedge Since we got this massive contraction In case there's still something going on behind the scenes That we don't know about And we get a reversal tomorrow I just wanted to have a little bit of a hedge on So I used a long call VIX spread for that My 5.7, I've got the 42.55s, 43.90s SPX bouncing a little bit I got in, let's see I got into Tronch 1 at 10.90 So I need to reduce my stop once it gets to 6.55 And it's currently trading at 8.75 Yeah, my 5.7, it was up a few hundred earlier today It's basically the scratch Looks like it's up about 10 or 20 bucks now Getting some quick decay coming into this ratio For Tronch 1 Tronch 2 and 3, I'll just do 1 to 1 Yeah, the yield curve inversion That's tatted quite a bit It's kind of a precursor to recessionary type situations But it's a little bit more of a longer term approach Than I was talking about I was really just talking about how volatility exploded And yet nothing was really moving But yeah, from a longer term perspective I've done a lot of statistics Around that yield curve inversion as well Getting close to closing out some JSP's Trading at 260, I'm looking for 250 Yeah, it was going inverted Uninverted, kind of bouncing back and forth for a while There's my JSP's Alright, so I still got 4 left I don't know, I still got 2 left Got an order at 50 cents for those ones Coming up on Tronch 2 Buy some longs Looks like it might be the 80, 75s 5Y again I just do 1 to 1 for Tronch 2 And 3 I only do the ratio on Tronch 1 And SPX, let's see We had a high of day of about 43, 83 We're at 79 right now So just a few points under the high of day Might get a straddle In Tronch 2 for a while I prefer never to see it straddle in Tronch 2 Might be back to 5Y here Just a little few ticks lower to get 5Y Tronch 2 is going to be 5Y Tronch 2, 5Y Trying to get 5.50 Be weighted a little bit Bounce between the 80s and 75s on the put side I always get in at 2.14 here Looks like it's back to 5Y Tronch 1 is down to 7.70 I'm looking for 6.55 Tronch 2, I got filled at 5.50 I'm looking for 3.30 To reduce my stop on Tronch 2 The remaining puts are the 43.75 I need price to stay above 43.75 Just a couple of those left though We still got some time before Tronch 3, it's going to be 5Y Vicks obviously had a big contraction overnight It was real on edge We just had that little pullback here Right after the first 5 minute bar So like the 10 minute and the 15 minute bar When they turned red Vicks really popped up It's just a little on edge Start getting a little spiky on this little flush too But then just continue to Grind lower I also put on a TGIF today It's up a couple hundred So far Tronch 1 is still trading around 7.80 I need 6.55 A little bit of a pullback on that one Here's a little pullback getting back to center Tronch 1 down to 7.20 Can you explain the stop loss triggers on spreads What's the difference of no bid It's trying to get a price On each leg If there's no price on one of the legs That's why it sometimes won't trigger Or you'll get really bad slippage Well, it's going by the mark price If there is a price on that leg I did not trade any futures today Oh, I'm sorry, no I did I tried to get short Once we started pulling back and bounced a little bit I tried to get short right in here And then I had a tight stop So I got stopped out on that big push But that's the only futures I did today A few minutes until Tronch 3 Looks like It's either the 85 or 80s And then the 75s on the put side Maybe the 85-75s Give it another minute or so I'm still trying to push a little bit They're going to be 10 wide, low premium Or 5 wide, big premium Give it about 20 more seconds Looks like it might be 10 wide It's a tweener It's a tweener 85-75s Trying to get filled at 270 270 Pretty low But it is 10 wide So 43.75 is the ultimate sweet spot Tronch 1 is down to 720 Still looking for 655 Tronch 2 is at 440 I'm looking for 330 A little pullback for Well, for both Tronch 1 and 2 To get our stops reduced The ASPs are trading down to $1.35 $1.45 I use a fixed stop on all three of my Tronches Tronch 1 and 2, I do ratchet down But they're all fixed They're not trailing stops Tronch 1 got down to 695 Just a little pullback Tronch 2 is at 430 I need 330 on that one Fixed down 11% Down to 1720 Popping up to a high On Friday at 20.78 And it's still pushing About to get our first market on close In balance 337 million sell side There you go Come on down Nice and easy For 655 And then I'll reduce my stop to 3 bucks 690, 685 Tronch 2 is trading at 405 I need 330 on that one 615, there it was Alright, reducing my stop on Tronch 1 Maybe Tronch 2 as well Let's see Tronch 2, I'm looking for 330 Tronch 2 is currently trading at 390 330 Tronch 1, I'd reduce it to 3 380 375 370 That's the 75-80 strike Getting close to center on that one 355 I need a little bit more decay Out of Tronch 2 Last Monday was my biggest One day winner in power hour ever And last week was my best One week profit Power hour ever Tronch 2 still hanging around 365 Now we just got to complete the trifecta And make it my best month ever Got a couple weeks 360, I need about 30 more cents out 355 Andrew Kay, if you So if you look at it from a Stop perspective Tronch 1, 2 and 3 are all about the same As far as the risk goes Because we have a tighter stop Alright, getting down there 340 Looking for 330 for Tronch 2 Got about 21 minutes till the bell There's 340 335, 330 Alright, reducing my stop on Tronch 2 My win rate per day of the week I don't know And my trader sink is actually going to be a little off From that perspective because Well, I guess, I mean the vast majority of the time The lungs expire so they settle on the next day So that's when it actually tracks it as When they settle Oh, just overall Let me see, there's been little tweaks And adjustments to how I trade power hour As well, but The other thing is I used to I used to just combine all the Tronches Into And I just used to tag them as power hour So I treated it as one trade from a statistical standpoint And then I moved to monitor Tracking each Tronch separately So let's see if I can at least give you A decent idea So here is So April was when I really started Diligently trading it Exactly like I planned That's when I started doing kind of one month at a time I'm going to trade it this way with the size All that good stuff So here's April So I had a 70% win rate in April And that was just by the day So you can see it was tagged just as power hour So that's all three Tronches And what's crazy about this is I did Over 36,000 that month Had a 70% win rate And I was doing Six contracts of Tronch 1 Three contracts of Tronch 2 And one contract of Tronch 3 Isn't that crazy? And then, okay, so that's April So that was 70% win rate If we look at May 60% win rate in May And again, that's just by day All Tronches together And then June was 57% And I was still tracking just All Tronches together July is when I Halfway through July is when I started Splitting out the Tronches And you can see my win rate that month was Almost 54% That was a Just a tiny bit of profit on the month That month And a little down move in SPX So that's July August That was the down month 55% win rate And that's between all the Tronches September September only a 49% win rate But still made over 29K that month Pretty crazy Yeah, Andrew K, I would Landon and I had this conversation I would Yeah, I would consider spreading it out because If you just kind of go through the back test What you'll see is that Sometimes Tronch 1 will struggle for a while Sometimes Tronch 2 will struggle for a while And it kind of rotates So I would say If I was you, I would probably As you start to increase your size I would start to spread that Between Tronches September Profit per Tronch So here's Tronch 1 Which also includes, let's see There's just that one day that I had the Short squeeze So the 2 to 1 ratio Which was a $9000 winner that day 60% win rate on Tronch 1 In September No, that was October Tronch 2 in September Was red 42% win rate Tronch 3 for September Was basically a scratch 45% win rate Just above our 4375 mark 13 minutes to go Yeah, I think it was August Tronch 1 struggled Kind of depends That's what I like the idea of Tronching That way you're kind of Spreading your entries Spreading your Spreading your range a little bit We could just hang out right about here That would be beautiful Tronch 2 is trading down to 280 Tronch 1 is trading down to 370 Tronch 3 is trading at $2 Tronch 3 is trading at $2 They were starting to get a little bit Further away and because My ratio for Tronch 1 is bigger I'm doing 8x16 And I already had some Puts that I sold That I was using on the Put side But you can see my calls Were way up at 4435 And 4455 So just to be safe I went ahead and just Bought some more longs 10 minutes to go First 3 indications of Market on close and balance 337 million to the sell side Final 1 It's already out But it'll pop up on my Feed In about 10 seconds 660 million to the sell side Decay You must be a paid subscriber Oh the voice is Okay My voice is delayed also My voice is never enough decay My jsp's are at 4375 So I need to stay a little Above that And to decide What if anything I want to take to the bell today Tronch 3 is 10 wide But my low strike is 4375 It's right there See where we end up here in a few minutes Tronch 1 is 70 and 75 So it's 5 wide to a little Iffy I prefer to do something 10 wide I did my jsp's Right around 1pm Central and then I added a couple About 130ish So That little consolidation and that little dip Right there Trader Pionk out at 80% And she's yelling at us for some reason She really wanted to let us know Tronch 2 is out at 80% 5 and a half minutes to go I'm going to try to get out of my jsp's At 75 cents Tronch 1 What do I want to do with you Trading up to 4 bucks now I'm going to try to get out of Tronch 1 At 380 Build at 385 on Tronch 1 Tronch 2 is trading at a buck Tronch 3 is trading at 50 cents Tronch 2 I'm going to try to get out at Tronch 3 I've got at 25 cents Currently trading at 30 I'll go ahead and lower that one To 10 cents So I'll take Tronch 3 to the bell Billing on Tronch 2 At 75 cents Tronch 3 it's up to you To go to the bell Are you going to snag my 10 cent order Pretty well centered So Tronch 1 in at 10.90 Out at 75 cents 10.15 Tronch 2 in at 5.50 Tronch 1 out at 385 sorry Tronch 1 at 10.90 Tronch 2 in at 5.50 Out at 75 So plus 5,640 on Tronch 1 Plus 7,600 on Tronch 2 Tronch 3 I got in at 2.70 3,640 on Tronch 3 Assuming it holds up But it's coming down a little bit Uh oh, spoke too soon See that's what happens when you spend your money Before you got it A little bounce, bounce above 75 Nasty red bar Not what I was looking for And Tronch 3 is going to be Oh, low markup on the clothes Nice So it looks like Tronch 3 will be about $1,700 winner So 5,640 Plus 7,600 Plus whatever that settles at $1,700 All three winners I'll take it Beautiful, alright my friends Let's see, live stream tomorrow Tomorrow is the 17th So Chad will be streaming in the morning And then we'll be back here for power Our live As always Alright all, take care, have a good night Talk to you soon