Okay, let me know if you can see the slide and if everybody can hear me. Is that good? Wonderful, welcome everyone. Welcome, hopefully everyone had a great day trading. My name is Melissa Armell. Thank you, Kathy. If you have any questions, you can write and text it in the room. Okay, we're gonna talk about volatility today, which is a great topic. One, because the market is still very volatile. A lot of people think that it's not, that we're broken out through the volatility, which was all of the month of August. We were sideways, we were up, we were down, we were up, we were down. The fact is the market is still volatile and we're not through it. Now, if you're an active trader, volatility is good. You can make money trading volatility if you get it in the right direction. But you could say that about any day and any stock in any trade you ever take. So the point of the webinar tonight, and we're gonna discuss, is how trading volatility actually is a very profitable way to trade, not just now with these market conditions, but also going forward in the future. So it's not a bad thing, it's a good thing. Now, if you have a long-term retirement account or 401k, you might be on the jitters when you see big sell-off sometimes when we have them in the market, like we had it in a few days in August. But we will have more days like that. And long-term, though, the market uptrend is holding. So as far as your long-term positions in your retirement accounts, the market uptrend is still intact, but expect the volatility in the market to continue probably into the end of 2019, okay? And again, if you have any questions, I just wrote there, hi, you can just type it in the room and I'll see them as we go along, okay? And Kathy's here from support to help anyone. All right, let's get started. I think everyone has seen me on TV or somewhere before, but if you have any questions, you can email me at Melissa at thestockschwisch.com or call me at 929-3200 gap, follow me on Twitter, Facebook, YouTube or Skype. So again, we're gonna talk about volatility today. So what is volatility, okay? Volatility is you think something is gonna go up and then it goes down. You think something is going to go down and then it goes up, okay? It's a reversal of your current expectation of wherever direction you think the stock or the market is going. And it's often, okay, I'm saying often because not always, but often it's unexpected, okay, for many, many people. Now, for me, like right now with this market, to me, I will not be shocked at all if we see an extreme move to the downside whatsoever. Even though we've been very strongly broke out of the range and the upward direction from August, I won't be surprised if we have a violent direction down. But most people, when they look at the chart, they're surprised when they see an opposite directional move. So volatility is typically your expectation, it goes the opposite of what you think something's gonna do. So that's one thing. Also, there's usually big moves with momentum, okay? And that is good for you as a person, as a trader to play on, because you, as one individual, cannot move a stock. But if you get on the tail, on the end of a move or the beginning of a move, of something that's going in a certain direction in a big, big way with volume, you can make money even if you only have a couple hundred shares. For example, if you are in a stock and you short a stock and you have 500 shares and it drops two points, what would your profit be if you were short 1,000 bucks, okay, which is a lot of money with even a 500 share size. So you don't have to take thousands and thousands and thousands of shares in big positions in stocks to make money when you get extreme moves. And again, going back to what is volatility, it's moves in the opposite direction you would think. It's extreme moves. It's moves with momentum and volume. And this is all the things that I'm typically looking for in any given day. But right now in this market, particularly, particularly this market, and we're getting into the fall trading season, it's a busy season, earning season is coming up in a few weeks, we're gonna get a lot of volatility. It could be in individual stocks, as I said, or it could be in the market or it could be in both, okay? Any questions, let me know. So let's talk here, Ben, what I was talking about with the market. What is volatility? So here's the market. I'm gonna go back to the middle of the summer. This was in June, market rally. This is the spy, which is the ETF for the market, SMP. It dropped, fell, gapped up, rally. We actually made new highs here. And the period here in July, we didn't hold it. Okay, we couldn't hold it. We couldn't hold the new highs. We couldn't hold the rally. We dropped off here. And this is, this was the beginning of August that started this whole shift where we dropped off and we sold off pretty, pretty tough. Okay, this was all that period at the end of July into the beginning of August. Here was the day I was talking about in here in the 23rd. Really good day for the stocks whoosh, called every put that I called on that day worked. Every short that was a huge, big one day directional move, power trending down, which is rare, but called all shorts that day and every single trade worked. Okay, can everybody see the chart? Anyways, this is rare, but we will see more days like this. And we will see more days to the downside and more days to the upside too. But I'm just saying like to have the power trend in one direction is something that is rare. But we did see that here on this day and we saw that here on this day. So the both of these days were in August, right there. Okay, Mark has a question. I don't know if he's typing a stuff or what copy if he can help him because I can't really see the question. It just shows typing. Anyways, I just wanted to quickly go over here and I'm just doing this really quickly somewhere on YouTube as a video up. This was the month of August. These were all the ticker symbols we did about the month of August and I wanna show you there were no losing days. Not one single losing day in the whole entire month of August in the trading room. These were all the trades I call in the room. Some days we didn't do any trades. No losing, no losing days, okay. In fact, the hardest day we had was the day after that drop off, the 28th in here where I did a bunch of trades. Most days we do one trade and stop and Alt has a trade that happened. The 30th we're gonna talk about in BBY at the end of the month. But there were 17 winners, five losers, one break-even trade and 23 trades called in the trading room during the month of August, a 78% win ratio and really nice profits. Now the profits of over 40 grand was with a $2,000 risk per trade. These are day trades, these are not options trades although I will be talking about a few options trades in tonight's webinar. My system, the system that I use to look for volatility pinpointed in the gap. You can use to do options, you can use to do day trades. I am doing both because I think there's reasons to do both. The day trades, okay, happen quick. Sometimes you're in and out in a couple of minutes or five minutes, 10 minutes, 15 minutes. Those trades we do in the morning between 9.30 and 10 AM Eastern time. For those of you that are interested, you can email me. I'm doing an open house for the trading room this week. Those of you that are here, you're welcome to come. Email me and I'll send you the link. You can sit in the room Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and watch what we do and observe, okay? So we trade between 9.30 and 10 AM Eastern time for the day trades. The options trades, which again, I'm looking for volatility. You can sometimes hold for overnight moves or big moves on the day. I'm typically doing them in stocks that are expensive like Amazon would be a good example, okay? That was one of the ones from today where it's a really high price stock and we do options trades because it's cheaper than actually doing the equity because when you trade equities, you need margin. When you do options, you don't have to have margin. And if anyone has any specific questions about that, you can ask me about that later. And Mark, if you're typing something that's definitely stuck because I can't see the question at all. Kathy, if you wanna help him. Anyways, I use one system to pinpoint where something's gonna go. I wanna see volatility. I'm looking for volatility. So in the month of August, there was no losing days in the room. And my point being, a lot of day traders got chopped up in the month of August because most traders wait till later in the day after 10 o'clock or 11 a.m. Eastern time to take trades. And most traders are looking for moves with the market or need the market. Most traders are trend trading or they're looking for to take a trade with the direction of the market on any given day. Now, I will tell you one thing. I've read the market very well this calendar year and even back in 2018, I read the market very well. But I don't get it right every time, okay? The market is difficult and challenging to read correctly every day. I get it right a lot, but I don't get it right 100% of the time. So if you need the market to get your trades to make money, you're gonna have a tough time, not just did you have a tough time in August, but you're gonna have a tough time going forward because as I'm saying, as I said before, the market volatility will continue, okay? So you have to look for specific stock symbols. That's my belief system. My belief system is find specific stock symbols to trade each day. Try to do a different one every day if you can. That's number one. Number two, don't need the market for your trades because if you do, you're gonna get chopped up. And again, August was a good example of that. Number three, follow one system, whatever it is you choose to do, one system, one strategy, when you're making choices in trades and try to get the best entry possible, okay? One of the reasons that I'm in show quickly into the open because remember the market opens at 9.30 Eastern time and I said, we're looking to take trades in that first 30 minutes. One of the reasons I'm in so fast is because again, I don't have conviction if it doesn't set up early. Like I don't have a lot of conviction that it's not gonna go, that the volatility isn't gonna take hold of stock that day and if it's gonna drop, choke it to death or if it's gonna rally, let it explode and take off like a rocket. Either way, I wanna see that happen fairly soon because if I see that happen fairly soon, that I have a high level of conviction that it's going to work, okay? Any questions so far before we keep going? And again, I see Mark is trying to type something but nothing's coming up, Kathy, if you're there. I don't know if you're a listener or not. Okay, so let's get going. So why do people find day trading so hard? There are so many reasons. However, one big reason is a lack of focus, a lack of clarity, uncertainty. A lot of people are insecure, they don't know what to do. Should I do this one? Should I do this one? Should I go long? Should I go short? Do I need the market? You know, what should I do? Traders are often second-guessing themselves. You need conviction to trade well and make money. And if you don't know what this is or you've never had it, it may be one of the reasons why you're not successful. You can't second-guess yourself every trade you take. That to me is no conviction, it's zero conviction. And if you're in that mindset that the best thing you can do is either A, stop trading, okay? Just stop, stop trading altogether because you're gonna lose if you don't have any conviction and you don't know what you're doing.  And that might be someone like me that you want to come in and be mentored by me, okay?  You really have to be very confident with what you're doing. I think it's important to understand why you're doing the trade or at the very least follow someone that does understand, okay? And a lot of people are trading to make money. Not everyone is trading for their full-time job. And why say full-time job? This could be just part-time hours. But not everyone is interested really in being a professional trader. Some people wanna trade on the side for extra money. If it's an extra two grand a month, they're happy.  They don't like the job they have now. I do think it's important to know the goal for trading. Why are you trading? Why do you wanna trade? Why are you trading now? I think it's something that definitely has to be in the forefront of your mind. It helps you with your goals and it definitely helps you to proceed into the future and to achieve those goals. But you need to know what they are. A lot of people flounder around for years in the market and they never make money, but they really don't even know why they're doing it in the first place. Even though trading is fun. And I'll be the first one to tell you that I love reading charts. It's not fun unless you make money. In fact, it stinks if you lose, okay? Kathy, are you there? Because Mark's comment is not coming through. So I'm gonna send Kathy a chat. Okay, I don't know what's happening there but I can't see his question at all. And he's getting back to what I was saying. Knowledge is important, okay? So the conviction comes from the knowledge because without that you won't be successful. A lot of people are scaring people talking about volatility in the last couple of weeks. But like I said, volatility is good. But I will say now everyone's off the volatility stick.  Man, is that gonna bring in more volatility people? Man, oh man, is that gonna bring in more volatility? Okay, and I'm not saying it's short the market today. I'm not saying that at all. I'm saying that the volatility is here and it's not going to win anytime soon, all right? And there's an FOMC rate decision out Wednesday as well. You gotta focus on specific stocks. You have to focus on knowledge. The knowledge gives you the conviction and what I'm saying is it's very important in order to make money.  It was on September 11th. I called the Google calls strike 1220. I'm gonna show you the trade. It expired 920. Well, it's not 920 yet. It's 916 today. So theoretically, some people still could be in this trade. I'm gonna show you the chart though of Google. Here it is. So 911 was here. Okay. So I called the trade rally boom. Here's the move green, green, green, green, green. Okay. And then here was today. I didn't go back and look and see how Google closed today but I thought a really good exit on this was last week. You could have got out of it Thursday. You could have got out of it Friday. Going into a weekend. This was a positive trade. It was a nice trade. It was a nice move. Okay. So this was what? Momentum. Now what happened today? Google gap down today with the market bringing in more volatility. Now I like this chart. I love this chart. This chart could still be higher. But again, this just goes back to what I was saying earlier. We trade for a purpose. The purpose is making money and there isn't any other purpose. So anybody that was in this trade should have got out of this trade Thursday or Friday. If they didn't, they could still be in a piece of the trade but they're taking a chance because the fact is this only has a couple more days. It was a nice trade. It was up. Where is this gonna go from here? Now people could come in and start to sell into this here and drop it down. I don't know. I don't know what this does and I don't care anymore because the trade is done as far as I'm concerned. But I wanna show you here again how volatility could break this and then it could spin around again. Even if this goes all the way down big it could spin around again. But this is the move that you wanna do. This is the move that I called on the 11th. This is a move you would have done boom, boom, boom and out two, three days out. So here it is. I'm showing different examples here because I want people to know that you can trade with a certain amount of money and it doesn't have to be hundreds and hundreds of thousands of dollars. Let's look at each example. Again, this is momentum to the upside. I called calls a 1220 calls. The stock flew well through the strike, okay? Cost of the option for the 1220 calls expiring 920 was eight bucks. You could have paid seven something. You could have paid a little bit more than eight. It was around eight. Contracts, 10 contracts would have cost you $8,000 and this one actually I think it went over 27. But this is a good exit here I think close to 24. 2375, you would have made 197% return in investment with this entry and this exit which would have been with an $8,000 risk $15,750. This is an advanced trader risk which you certainly can do if you have the cash. You don't need to worry about the cost of Google which is why this is nice as far as an equity trade because Google is expensive, all right? $1,200 and change per contract. So I call this often as an option trade if we do the Google. Now an intermediate trader is a risk that could range between 1,000 and 2,000 for options. This was a $1,600 risk to contracts still a great return of investment, almost 200% $3,150. Again, a really nice trade. You take it on the Wednesday, you out of it Thursday, take it on the Wednesday, out of it Friday, take it and get out, take it and get out. Beautiful move, okay? And again, you're up this kind of money and trades you must book it because that is the reason that you trade. You don't trade to try to get, hold something to the end of time, you trade to make money. And as soon as you make the money in this trade, well then the money that you took to make it is back on your account too. So like if you risk $1,600, that money is being used until you exit the trade and book it. So then you book the 3,150 and then the 1,600 is back into your account plus the profit of the 3,150 and guess what, you can take another trade. All right, that's the beauty of trading. Take it, get out, take it, get out, take it, get out. Okay, and we're very active. I've called more trades this year in 2019 than I've ever called in my life quite frankly between the options letter and the day trades. But I'm very pinpointed, very focused, okay? So this is the beginner risk, one contract, $800. Really nice, really nice cost in this actually. Considering it was Google and it was out for a week. Profit $1,575, return and investment $197, okay? So that's a good return and investment.  So we'll see where this goes from here but I'll be watching it. Now that was a call, that was a long, that was a bullish gap. Again, what is conviction? Conviction is what tells you, I believe that this stock is going to move with momentum in this direction. If you think it's higher, you buy a call. If you think it's lower, you buy a put if you're doing an option. Or you day trade it where you short the stock with the outright equity.   And sometimes trades go turnover more than the amount that you risk which could be two amounts, could be three amounts, could be a half of them out. Either way, it depends on your timeframe for what you're doing. Now here's another one here. Ulta, again, we're talking about volatility. Now what happened with this one? This was extremely volatile about two weeks ago. This was really a beautiful move. The stock closed here the night before. This is Ulta. Everybody knows Ulta, the beauty place. Closed up here around 330, whatever in change. I don't know, 338 or whatever it was here the night before. Opened down here the next morning around 255 in change. Fell hard, fell big, fell almost $20 on the day that it actually dropped. So Ulta, you could have done a put in it. You could have shorted as a day trade. You could have done both. Okay, I called a lot of trades in this. We're just gonna go over one here but the reality is that this was what? Lower and it had a lot of volatility. What happened here was it kept going and I'm gonna show you this here and then this green bar here, this is a candle stick. Again, the red depicts the selling, the selling and the shorts that came down. Stock price drop, drop, drop. Again, if you're in the put, you could have been in it. The day trade, we did it in and out here. I wanna show you this one here. So this is on the 30th. This was August 30th. Then it was the weekend. Then it was Labor Day. Then this based out here. Then this was on the 5th of September. Okay, actually this was after Labor Day. So the 5th of September, I wanna show you here how the stock rallied. So there were people that actually bought all tough, crazy people, but they bought it and they bought it on the 5th. How do I know the stock rallied? Guess what he did after that? Fell, fell, fell. Fell and broke the love the previous day that the people bought it. Then people bought it again. This day on here is the 10th. This was last week. So all of this is depicting and I'm showing you this here. Volatility, volatility, volatility. Cause you have the shorts, then you have the longs, then you have the shorts, then you have the longs. Does everyone see that? So it's like a battle, which it always is. And you have this in different stocks and that's what I'm looking for. But again, I'm playing one direction based on my gap rating system, which I rate the gap. That's what you'd learn in the class. But I'm only looking for qualified gaps, specifically, to take in one direction. So I would never short-alta and then go longer. I would never short it and go longer. I would never ever do it. And by the way, I'll just lower, okay? But I wanna show you here this volatility and I'm pinpointing these days because people are along the stock. How do I know? There and there. And they think they're gonna win. And some days I might have been up. They're not gonna win. But the reality is that that kind of volatility is playing out big time in this because of the fact that a lot of people think that the stock's gonna, that stocks has too big of a drop, too big of a fall, too big of a move down and that it is going to quote unquote, push back, pull back, whatever nonsense the way that people talk. I don't talk like that because of the move that the stock had was so big, so fast, but that has nothing to do with editing and all that what I do, okay? And this volatility is gonna play out and it's gonna play out in the direction that I've called the trades. So I'm looking for that specifically based on technical analysis and what's happening in the gap. Now let's go over what a gap is. For those of you that don't know what a gap is, a gap is a difference between the close and the open. This stock closed to the night before then it opened at a different number. This is a gap down. There also are gap ups. Let's look at a gap up. There's a gap up that happened here the day before. It reported, closed here, gap up. Close to the night before at four o'clock around 3.30, open in the morning around 3.30, five, 3.36, wherever it opened here. This was a gap up. So stocks gap up, stocks gap down. Any day of stock gaps, you can rate it using my system but it doesn't mean it's gonna rank good enough to actually take a trade in it, whether long or short. So I might get up in the morning and I might be looking, I might make a list of 10 things that I think are volatile that are gapping, that could be longs, that could be shorts and then I will look to find the best one and hone in on the right one to do. And again, some days we do more than one. Okay. Any questions so far? Mark, I think you gotta press enter because I can't see your question.  Kathy said she tried to send you a message and does anyone else have any other questions as I'm talking here? Everyone get the point of what I'm trying to say here about Alta, hopefully. Anyways, returns can be incredible depending on your risk and how long you want to stay in something to move it but to be honest with you, as I said, I've called so many trades this year. I think the main point for people is to make money.  You can lose money if you hold onto a trade too long but that Amazon trade I didn't think was holding too long at all and was an amazing return, okay? And the Alta trade has just been incredible as well. That move that it had on that day, whether you did the puts or the day trades was just a really big move. Even a stock like that at that price point to go $20 on the day is a lot. Oh my God, Kathy, there's a blast from the past. The name from the calf passed. Good to see you, Kathy. Kathy, I saw it done to Kathy was 2018. Wow. Anyway, so when you're doing this, again, as I was saying, some trades will just end up being big. Just say will just fall into your lap. Alta was one of those trades for a lot of people. Target was another one, I don't have that in here. But anyways, a lot of trades that I call, some will just dump into your lap and be big.  And that's an important thing for people to remember. And I think when people are trading and losing for a long time and then they start doing a system that works when they're making money, sometimes the greed comes through. And you have to still remember the fact of what I was saying earlier today. You do this for the purpose of making money. As fun as it is, the real purpose of your training is to profit. Whether you're doing it as a side gig or whether you're doing it as your full-time gig, you must book money and trades. Day trading is not investing. It is a way of producing income. You chunk it, chunk it out. Chunk it, chunk it, chunk it. You get the move and get out. You get the move and get out. You get the move and get out. You get the move and get out. Okay, and very often what I'm doing in a lot of these trades and I ultimately was one of those ones, like I'll have something, we'll take it, we'll take it, get out. Then I'll call another one and I'll call another one and I'll call another one so that people can keep doing them. Because if I see this thing is gonna keep going, whatever stock that happens to be, whether it's a long or short, I'll keep calling it, calling it, calling it. We can keep getting the move as we go down. So there really isn't any reason to take one trade and just hold it forever. Because I'm calling them in waves and that makes a lot of sense too. Cathy's new to trading. Yeah. Well, this is all, I'm talking about options here right now, but we're gonna talk about day trades too. But it's the same system. It's the same system and the nice thing about it is I'm giving people a choice. If you're familiar with doing options the way to use my method for options is good for you. If you're not familiar with options, then the way to use the system will be for the day trades or swing trades for you. But either way, it's for both types of people that you can do it because some people work at a job and they can't day trade in the trading room. They can't be in the trading room every day when we're open and we're doing the trades. So some people can do the options if they're at work. They don't have to be right on top of the trades. Like when we did that Alta, and again, I'm gonna go over that here in a minute, it was a quick one, boom, boom. And you had to focus on it to get in and get out to get the day trade move. Because when you're doing a day trade, when you're doing an equity trade, you must take the trade between 9.30 and exit it before four o'clock, okay? So volatility is the name of the game. Volatility and focus, focus, honing it in. Just like you're shooting an arrow, okay? And you're getting it right into the area, okay? Yeah, Kathy, it would be great to have you. So anyways, let's talk about BBY. This was another one, okay? Again, looking for a move, looking for the gap. What happened here? So again, this was back at the end of the month of August. This was a 29th. Stack close to your gap down. I forget the reason for this. I think it was earnings, but I really don't even remember at this point. It was a couple of weeks ago. But the stack close to your rent 69, boom. Up in the morning, a rent 65. Sold off like a banshee, okay? This is volatility, people. This is volatility. The stock fell down in here and dropped in here $3. And that is a big move. That is a large move for the stock. You have to get it at the right point. I have to get out. I don't wanna go back and point this one out here since we're talking about volatility. This was here on the day of August. I have no idea why this happened. We actually did not do this one this day, but since we're looking at this chart, look at the move that that had here. I mean, talk about volatility in this. Woo, this was all the way up here at 76.5 and down here to 68. This all happened in one day. It was like eight points plus. We did not get this, but looking at this here, you can see, and this was today. So this was like out, we're more than a month here now, six weeks out. This has not recovered from this original sell-off. Again, I don't know what happened here. And the reason I didn't do it is because it didn't gap. This just opened neutral and fell this day. But this was, this has not recovered. The stock, meaning to be why, has not recovered from this volatility that happened here that just crashed this summer. And I don't know why that was, but I wanna point that out, okay? So this is the one that we did in here was the trade. The entry was a short, it was a day trade. Entry, 64.90, boom. Shares were 1,500. Stop was 66.25, so it was only 1,500 shares because the stop was wide. But I did it that way to keep us in the trade. Exit was still a nice move down in the drop. We didn't hold this all day. Again, we're in and out in a couple of minutes, but if you held this all the way down, like I said, it went to 62. You could have got another buck and a half out of this. Exit in the morning, quit fast was 63.66, with an 18.60 profit. This was a nice move. This is actually a cleaner chart of this picture. But here it is, we did it quick, boom, got out, drop. I wanna show you in here though how it kept going. But again, I like to be in and out quick, quick, quick. But if you held this down, you made another $1 plus. Okay, but that's not my goal. My goal is not to get out at the low of the day and every short or the high of the day and every long. My goal is to make money. And if you have that at the forefront of your mind, you will do very well trading, okay? And I think that's one of the reasons that people do do well with me, that have that at the forefront of their mind. You want the money. And when you want it, you have to book it. If you don't book it, it's not yours. It's never over to the fat lady sings. You gotta remember that when you're trading. Anything can happen in this type of day and age with Trump, Tweety, and all kinds of other things going on politically. Anything can turn in a dime. So you gotta be focused. You have to be focused on the stock. You have to be focused on the right direction. You have to be focused on taking the trade. You have to be focused on getting out. You have to be focused on making the money. Not obsessively, but it's got to be there as the reason that you're doing it, okay? I'm sucking as much money out of the market as you can. I try, I try. We're definitely trying. I mean, I mean, talk about that day in the 23rd, that day that the, that day that the market fell in the 23rd, I was like, I was like, what other things could be possibly short? It was almost like short the world really on that day back. It was a couple of Fridays ago. We'll have other days like that. We'll have other days like that where you just like, you know, but I mean, I honestly, it's rare that the market power trends. On that day, the market power trended down. I knew it and I knew it before the open. So I mean, that's, I think that's a benefit of being in the live trading room with me. I'm extremely good at reading what's going to happen in the market before the open.  It helps you decide to hold trades or not. It helps you decide if you want to take more than one trade. It helps you decide what options to do. It helps you decide what day trades to do. It helps you decide how active to be. I'm very good at reading where the market's going to go on the day of. And it's something that eventually in the future I probably will be doing on television, but I'm not sure how that's going to be incorporated with the room. It may not be in live time because it's something that I'm really, really good at doing. And very often when I get up in the morning sometimes at 5 a.m., I can see what the market's going to do four and a half hours before the open or three hours before the open. But let's talk about Ulta. This close to your gap down, dropped, boom. Again, we're talking about the day trade here. We're talking about the volatility because you've got people buying this. Think it's going to fill the gap. A lot of people are in Ulta long and they haven't given up on it yet. Even though it's getting close to falling again, they haven't given up on it. How do I know? Because it hasn't fallen off a planet yet. And I'm waiting, expecting, I'm waiting for it to go. It's going to fall off a planet any day. But the fact is that right now people are holding this and they're trying to hold on to it with dear life because they think it's going to be the biggest trade in the world when it rallies up and fills the gap. That is a wrong thing to do. That it's not going to happen. It is a terrible idea. But a lot of people are thinking that's going to happen. But those are people that don't know what they're doing. The direction to play this is to the downside. And if you missed it or didn't get it, then you just find something else. But anyways, this was a short of the day. Entry 251.48, boom. Stop was wide. So 500 shares was an advanced risk in this particular stock because of the fact that it was a big stop. I don't know some days what loans we're doing. Some days we'll do stocks in the $60 range like BBY. Some days we'll do something like Alta over $200 a share. Some days we'll do something that's dirt cheap. It could be eight bucks a share. I don't know. I don't know what we're doing tomorrow either. I don't know until I get up in the morning. Exit here 244.75, $3,365 profit. This is in the day trade, but this is only 500 shares. So if you had taken half this, if you'd only take 250 shares of this, you would have made well over $1,500, which is such a beautiful move when you think about it. So again, you don't have to take thousands and thousands and thousands and thousands of shares in order to profit. And many, many people will be happy making even $500 a day because an average of $500 a day profit is 2,500 bucks a month and many people are not making that on an average per, I mean, of $2,500 a week. Many people are not making $2,500 a week trading. I mean, many people aren't making $2,500 a month trading. Now that I'm saying it. But the fact is it's the consistency. How do you be consistent? Using a consistent system. We're looking for the gap. We're looking for the volatility. We're getting out when we're up, okay? Part of the consistency is making sure that you're constantly booking money. You can always take another trade. And I'm calling a lot of trades, as I said. You can always take another one. Take another one, take another one, take another one. All right? I think being an active trader well suits my personality. It is something that well suits everyone's personality if they wanna make money constantly. But I think a lot of people are in their head about this idea of investing and they mix it up with trading. Trading is not investing. Trading is you're making money. That's why people do it for a living. I mean, you couldn't, how could you be an investor for a living if you take a trade in the year 2010 and you're not exiting out of any of the profits till the year 2025? Where's your income coming from if you're in the position and you're locked to the position and you're not taking profits? Nowhere. Active trading is what people do for the purpose of making money. Whether it's making a living or whether it's extra money every month. And the only way that's gonna happen is if you are actively in and actively out. It's actively in and actively out. Does this make sense? So I'm focusing on the volatility so I get the big move so I can take it in, get in and get out, okay? So that's why I'm looking for things like Alta. And again, you can only risk what you can afford. So it depends if it's whatever you're gonna spend. You could say, well I'm gonna risk $500 a trade and I'm gonna risk $1,000 a trade. It really is up to you and the size of your account. And you will quantify your share size based on the entry and the stop which I call live in the day trading room. What I'm saying these trades right here now is showing you, I'm calling them live. 10 by 50, 20 by 60. And again, if you wanna come to the trading room open house this week email me. I'm calling the trade entries and I'm calling the stop and you size yourself accordingly. But your risk, your monetary risk needs to be the same or close to the same in every trade you take. You can back it off and say that you start with your goals if you wanna do it for a living. If you can't afford to risk $1,000 a day, even if that's what you want to, then risk what you can afford. If you can only afford to risk $100 a trade then that's what you're risking. Whatever it is, you're looking to turn it over one. So if you're risking $1,000, your goal is $1,000. If you're risking $2,000, your goal is $2,000. Some will be a little bit less, some will be a little bit more. That's just on average, okay. But you can do this from anywhere in the world. I happen to live in New York, I live in Manhattan but I don't have to live here. I could live anywhere, I could live in Canada. I could live in Jamaica. It has nothing to do with where you live. It has to do with the fact that if you wanna be successful you must be focused and you must have a good system. And to be honest with you, I think having a good mentor is important too because I've never taught more people than I have this year and there's such a wide range of people that I've taught this year. Some people that I've never traded in their life and some people would trade a long time and they still need help because I don't understand what I understand about gaps. One of the reasons for my success is I've only done gaps since the beginning of the time that I started. So I started trading in 2008. It's 2019, it's almost 2020. So I've done nothing but gaps now for almost 12 years. So I'm very good at it. But the system that I do, I develop myself which is another reason I'm good at it as well. So that's a reason you come to me, that's the reason you pay money to learn from me. I have a very unique system and it's like I said, it's one of the reasons that I'm able to pinpoint something like Alta and see the extension on it or Target or many of the other ones that I've seen could continue. But trust me when I say the volatility in the market is nowhere near over. The fact that we broke out over the area from August means absolutely nothing for the market volatility. Absolutely zip, okay? And I won't be wrong about that either. So it's very important for you to be aware of that fact that if you're risking money in the market in these day and ages, and this is not just Twitter, okay, with the tweets, with the president and all that. This is the age that we live in right now where information on the news cycle is 24 seven things coming out. And it wouldn't matter if Trump was president or somebody else, it's nothing to do with politics. It's the world that we live in right now where everyone's interconnected. What's going on right now in England with Brexit is connected to us. What's going on in China and Hong Kong is connected to us. We're all connected, okay? And you have to be aware of that and this leaves for good opportunities for traders who know what to do. But if you don't, you don't. But again, it's another reason why you have to take the profits when you're in stuff. You must get in and you must get out and you must book the money. Now, this is another option. And again, you could have gone along the stock as a day trade, Kathy. So in the trading room, I'm calling the day trades. And the options newsletter, I'm calling the options. Just so you know. But I'm pointing this out because again, this is another one. Take it out, take it out, take it out, book the money. In fact, Apple fell off then after this, but the Apple calls were 222.50 expiring again next Friday, but that had nothing to do with anything at all. The stock had to move. And the volatility was there and here it was. So I called it on the 11th, boom, dropped.  Now you could have got out of it here. You could have got out of it here, but look what happened the next day. So again, this just goes back to show you. Woo, volatility. And now at this point in the last two days where nobody should be in this at all, why? Because some people shorted this. Some people went longer today. Yesterday, the on Friday, it fell. Today, people bought it. I have no idea where this goes from here. This is a mess, but this was beautiful. This was gorgeous. This was poop.  And wherever you get out, you get out.  This is a mess. And this again, it's volatility. Some people have short apple and some people are along it. This is a total nightmare here until it does something what we see it. And then I'll know it again, but everyone should just have done it and got now. But anyways, here was the one from last week. This was really was dirt cheap. 220, 30 contracts and advanced risk was 6,600. Exit five, again, beautiful move. 8,400 profit with this risk was more than 100% return investment. This one here, again, 220 price. If you wanted to get 10 contracts, 2,200 intermediate risk, exit at 5,200, 800. That's a decent trade, okay? For 48 hours or 24 hours or whatever, cost 2,200, one contract, 220 risk, exit 5, 280 profit. So again, you know, $220. Now you could have done this as a day trade. You could have day traded here. Kathy wants to do the day trades. You could have day traded it here, all right? Although you would have had to have that cost to take that at that price point. But if you wanna work for yourself, or even if you don't, even if you just wanna have extra money on the side to do more things with your life, you can be in charge of your own finances. But a lot of this has to do with personal responsibility. I'm a very independent thinker. If you are that way, you will do well as a trader. If you're an independent minded thinker and if you're motivated by money. So everyone says, well, I am, I like money. I love money, I'm motivated by money. Really? Well, let's see how motivated you are. Cause it takes hard work. You gotta do the class. You gotta pay for the class. You gotta understand charts. You gotta think about what you're doing.  You know, if you're really motivated to do it, the opportunities are there. You can come in contact with someone like me. You're here right now. The fact that you even have come in contact with someone like me at this point in my career means that you have an opportunity to come to me and take the trade call, sign up for the class. But again, you have to understand that opportunity is something that exists for a period and a moment in time. And if you don't grab it and take it, then it's lost. Because a lot of people see charts and see stocks and see trains. And they say, well, there's huge opportunity here. Yeah, if you're Warren Buffett and you have all the money in the world to invest in a stock that you believe in that's gonna rally for the next 10 to 25 years, great. But that's not what trading is. Trading is the opportunity is there in the moment. It could be seconds, it could be minutes, it could be two days, okay? But it is not there forever and ever and ever that you're holding something forever and ever and ever. Because what volatility is is exactly what I was explaining at the beginning of the class today. It means you think something's gonna go in one direction and then it goes in the next direction completely opposite. And that means opportunity, okay? Kathy, it should be in your platform. When we're done here at the end, I'll pull it up to show you. Do you have a live platform, a live trading account? You should have a free thing in your live trading account. Yeah, I'll show you in a minute. I don't know where that is, but you could call them if you don't know where it is. Anyways, if you're interested in trading, you can reach out to me. In the morning in the trading room, we trade for about 30 to 60 minutes a day. You don't have to trade every day. You can trade every day. I said the busiest days are Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday in the market. Probably the busiest day this week is gonna be Wednesday because of the Fed. And there's a couple of good earnings out Tuesday night. FDX and Adobe are out Tuesday night. But day trading, whether you day trade options or whether you day trade equities is producing income. Okay, it's not long-term investing. I have to be clear on that because I find a lot of people wanna do this and they don't understand how to be active, okay? But you have to want it. You can do it. I've been amazed about the amount of money that some people have made this year with me. Some people are really doing extremely well with me. And I'm gonna take all the credit because the fact is that I have a great system and people are seeing that and they're starting to risk a lot more money and they're starting to be really active and they're starting to just bang it out. I've developed some people into really nice traders. And one of the people actually helps me out now with the room when I take days off. Last week I took some days off for the trading room and my assistant, who's a student of mine, ran the room for me. So it is not without the realm of possibility for you to be successful to trader, you can be. And I've developed some people into really good traders. So even if you're losing right now in the market, even if you're down and out and you think you can't do it and you're feeling depressed, you gotta turn that situation around. You're not doing yourself any benefit by being depressed. It may mean that you have to change what you're doing or change something in your strategy or thinking, but you absolutely can do it, okay? So think about what I said tonight. If you're interested in trading, I definitely think having the goal at hand for why you're doing is important. So I have a system that I teach the classes this weekend for the month of September before the next quarter earning season. So this is a class if you wanna join for fall earning season to get into. I teach a 26 point checklist. It measures the stock gap on the day, again like Alta, that will have a high probability of directional bias for the entire day. A big move in the day with volume, with volatility. Early confirmation of the bias and the move between 9.30 and 10 AM Eastern time and precise entries with follow through and a good risk to reward. That's what I'm always looking for. It doesn't mean I hold something forever though. Again, the day trade in Alta I could have held way, way longer, but then we had the puts. But it is important to chunk it out. So some people have made back the cost of the class very quickly depending on their size. Some people it's taken a little bit longer. I would not push it, that should not be your goal.  But if you're invested in doing this and investing in yourself and are taking it seriously and you have a long term approach to it, you're gonna do a lot better off. It is really a function of what's your risk. It's really I'm looking for most trades one to one. So the system that I teach is a system that I created myself. It's called the Golden Gap. It's a 26 point professional bearish gap rating system. The purpose of the system is to help you evaluate which gap to trade each morning using a checklist. I do it every day for the last 12 years. Now when I started out in 2008, I did not have a checklist. I created it as a process over three years. So I didn't wake up one morning and have 26 points. It was a process that took me about three years to figure it out. But ever since I did, I never skip it. So as long as I do this, I will always figure it out. I use it for the market and it's one of the reasons that I read the market very well too. The checklist tells you what to trade, when and in what direction. The 26 point checklist predicts directional bias in a stock and Alta was a very highly rated gap. I've lost track of how many trades I've called in that. Between the options of the day trades, I've called a lot of trades in that. It might be the most thing that I've called so far actually this year besides BYND. But I think I've now called more trades and altered them BYND. But either way, I think I need to look at BYND. I haven't looked at that in a while. Let's look at that tonight. Either way, I don't skip it. I don't cheat it. I do the work. I do the work in the morning in the pre-market. As long as I do that, I know that I'm concrete and that is what gives me the conviction. So I can look at somebody and say, well, this is gonna go here, but it's the writing it down. There's something about writing something down with a pencil, with a piece of paper, with a pen. In your notebook, it's writing it. It's filling out the worksheet. It's doing that kind of old fashioned work. It's really, you can get in your head about money really quickly and get all excited. Oh, I love this. It's fabulous. But when you put it down and you rate it and you say, wait a minute, this doesn't cut the honey mustard here. Then you know, oh, I can't do it. I got excited for nothing. Well, let me find another one, okay? I will do longs. I will do longs we did Google, but I'd like to go to the short side first, Kathy, in the trading room. I've called options to the upside and to the downside as well, calls and puts. But for the day trading room, I'm mostly short. I mostly focus on shorts. Now, if I don't see any good shorts in the morning, then I will look for longs in the day trading room to go along. But I always go to the short side first and the only time I'm going long is if there's a gap that's so amazing, so fabulous to the upside that it's better than any short or we don't have any good shorts. And sometimes that's the case, okay? Anyways, one strategy is all you need to be successful in the market. You do not need a general overall broad base view to make money. I don't follow fundamentals. Again, if people are getting chopped up following fundamentals right now, why? Because one day somebody says one thing and the next day somebody says another thing. If you're following news events, you think a China deal, trade deals happening in the next month are a short-term deal and I wouldn't bet on that. I wouldn't put a dime on that. I wouldn't bet a penny. But people think that's gonna happen and they're back long in the market. Could it happen? Sure, do you know what's gonna happen? No, you have no idea. You don't know at all, okay? But I focus on the price because the price action's telling me exactly what's happening and there's no second guessing on that, all right? Learn how to read institutional money and price patterns and gaps and that's what I teach in the class and you don't need to do anything else. You will not need fundamentals. I don't even look at them. I have to talk sometimes on TV about things I read up about but it doesn't play into part of my decision-making and charts, okay? If your reason for doing this is making money then focusing on the price action is what's gonna make you the money. It's very pinpointed what I do. Again, in the system, in the morning, I'd use a worksheet. So if this sounds like something you're interested in, if you have a passion for making money, if you like the fast moves, the big moves, then you can reach out to me. You can call me if you have any questions. Again, the class is this weekend. It's called the Golden Gap course. It's September 21st and 22nd. Class tuition is 64.99. Class is online. You can be anywhere in the world and take it. Eastern time, New York time, 9 a.m. to 5. We usually do a one-hour break for lunch. Deadline is Friday the 20th. And investing yourself in this education is important. You will keep losing money in the market if you don't know what to do. There's no reason to get upset and depressed if you're losing. There are systems out there that work. My system works. There are other systems out there that work. You can't give up if this is a dream of yours and something that you wanna do. The trends course I'm doing then on Tuesday, okay, is a combo for that. You get two classes and you save money if you sign up for both of them at the same time. It's 69.99 for both of these classes. The trends is about long-term trends. And I'm running a fall special offer which gives you the trading room free to the end of the year. So this is a really nice offer. Sign up for the class or the combo deal. You get the trading room free to the end of the year. Offer expires on Friday. So you get to be in the room then for the rest of the year, for the rest of the burning season. I will bring up Kathy how to think about gaps, I think. And Mark, I never saw your question. I don't know what happened to it. I see you're still there. Here's a testimony from Steve. And again, if you're interested in the trial this week, here's my email. Now I'll bring up the thing for Kathy, one second.


On the breakfast, stagnation and power generation has continued despite the persistent increase in the demand for electricity by consumers since privatisation in 2013. Also on the breakfast, stakeholders decry delay in the launch of maintenance, repair and overhaul facility in Nigeria seven years after the idea was conceived. What is responsible for the delay? And don't forget, we'll also be looking through today's newspapers, analysing the biggest stories of the day. Welcome to the breakfast in plus TV Africa. It's a very beautiful Wednesday morning and we're still in January. All right, it's the fourth day in January 2023. I know a lot of people are not used to saying 2022 and I'm also still grappling with all of that but eventually we just get used to the fact that we're in New Year and it's called 2023. Now, just before we get to the crux of the matter, my name is Messi Bopu and it's really great to know that you are on the other side and you have joined the show. It's a great lineup this morning for us. It promises to be an amazing time to sit back, relax, grab a cup of coffee if you can or whatever it is and let's have a great moment. Well, on our top trend in this morning we set off with the fact that for 2023 the budget has been signed or a Centre 2, that's the language by the President Mohamed Abouhari. Finally, I would say President Mohamed Abouhari has signed the 2021.83 trillion Naira Appropriation Bill into law and the 2022 Supplementary Appropriation Bill as well. It's a two-way thing. Well, the approved budget was jacked by 1.31 trillion Naira which was moved from initial 20.13 trillion to 21.8 trillion Naira so that already got a lot of people talking about it but let's even look at this. Bouhari also said that this regime would speed up critical infrastructure projects and that's probably the reason why the spin and increase nationwide as it raced towards finishing the finish line on May the 29th 2023 noting that the budget is 21.83 trillion Naira and aggregate expenditure of course that increase that I mentioned 1.32 trillion Naira over the initial executive proposal of 20.51 trillion Naira the issue of you know INEC and what have you is also part of you know the reason why there's been an increase and that's according to the government flood that happened the fact that some infrastructure has been you know affected the reason why you have all of this but you know it's just quite worrisome Nigerians have reacted differently. You might also entrust you to know that the Nigerian president Mohammed Bouhari has accused just as this budget has been assented to the National Assembly of Padding the 2023 Appropriation Bill with 770 billion Naira and 58.55 billion Amid the country's 44.06 trillion Naira public debt burden he also stated that the National Assembly increased the ministries departments and agencies that's the MDA's provisioned by 58 which is what I mentioned pushing the addition to 830 billion Naira but too much let's even look at some of the consents about you know the 2023 Appropriation Bill or the budget if you like to say the National Assembly passed that budget it cannot be funded by the country's total revenue and the National Assembly also increased their own budget from 59 billion Naira to 228 billion Naira and so a lot of persons have said that our politicians are criminal they have liquidated the country with their reckless borrowing for consumption if you look at you know the 2023 budget some people have argued that the budget is too small if you look at the population we haven't budgeted enough but if you look at you know where the money is going to and what we're paying attention to the capital expenditure and the real current capital it's nothing to write him about so you say that you have uh you know the capital expenditure about five point you know so you're looking at five five trillion let's even talk about five trillion let's see that that there's an extra figure and then you're looking at real current that's the cost of running governance so but this is actually not choking for 2020 because over time that has been the pattern for us we have a located more resources or we have a located so much in running governance because when you look at the current expenditure is what you used to pay salaries what have you I mean all of the extras and what you have for the capital is what you have in investing in capital project rule construction and what have you so where does our heart really lies let's see and there's this cliche there's a phrase that says that if you want to look at the development of a country or a nation then you pay attention to where you know pay attention to where allocation is gone to I mean how much you're allocating to the capital projects and we look at that we can tell for sure that we're very big on spending very big on paying salaries and what have you and we're borrowing to do all of that because our revenue projection is not even if you look at all those also all of the assumption I mean this is a conversation we've had you know on a show very you know prior to 2023 and also in 2023 if you look at our revenue some of the assumptions in terms of oil and what have you it's not really realistic very weak and there are too many issues around it but we can only continue to talk about these issues and hope that we get it right and hope that those who are calling the shots will think about the people what's the rationale behind all of the increase I mean at this point we're grappling with revenue issues we want to be okay for us to begin to reduce you know some of the excesses that we have in the budget especially for the national assembly some other issues that are not developmental in nature but that's what it is another issue is about the fact that this fake recruitment portal and INEK has raised that alarm and they're talking about it is really worrisome because we have to guard our democracy as we inch closer to the elections don't forget that's in the next month and it's very close now the independent national electoral commission INEK has again cautioned Nigerians against a purported portal for recruitment of ad hoc staff for the 2023 January elections they say that the website and some blog below have advertised apparently not necessarily here but they have advertised ad hoc staff position for the 2023 January election the commission said that those portal or the portals are fake as the commission was not longer recruiting for the election okay officially website for the recruitment had been shut down a long time ago because INEK said that ad hoc staff recruitment portal was shut down on December the 14th 2022 I think it was open in about you know October September dare about that's when you know there was an official opening and we need to gather against this I don't think this should be an issue because at this point there should be some unique features there should be something very you know specific but it's also important that you know the electorate and the people pay attention to this so you don't become vulnerable and then you fall for this some of them probably will ask you to pay money and your life might also be at risk so yes it's a good one from INEK right but apart from that we'll also hear the issue of yesterday was dominating some of the papers talked about underage voters and the fact that parents would you know rick's going to jail and we say is INEK trying to pass the the blame is this the blame game how do you now blame the parents for underage voting why how did they even get how did how did this underage voters get into the register so yes we can't continue I would say that we can't act like we don't know what's going on we can't always act like you know we're leaving space and then for the ants and look for who to shift the blame to we need to put the arcs together you can identify yes I know that this is the hormones are grow are different now so you can see a child who's 10 and they probably look like they are 18 or they're about but you cannot set in for sure you would you can tell and then some people say that the issue of underage voting and underage voters have been very dominant and prominent in the northern part of the country let's pay attention to all of this I don't think I mean if you ask me to say that it's really great to say you blame the parents for what INEK should step up to our responsibility but we have moved beyond that because I mean I'm not sure that we're having you know the registration process so if we now get to a point where we say there were underage voters in 2023 election who should we blame should he be the parents or you know the umpire that saddled with the responsibility of ensuring that we have a credible free and fair elections every other time now just before we move away from a top trending conversation the issue of endorsement will not stop because another some people will say a political big you know force has endorsed pitao b for president now edwin clark endorses pitao b for president this is few days after pitao b gets endorsed by a former president of the federal republic of nigeria lucia guinobasan joe edwin clark is an elder statesman of the south south region and endorse pitao b as his preferred candidate according to him obese plan to restructure nigeria will bring unity so according to him is looked at the manifesto he thinks that the former nambraste governor is very um you know his demand for the job has a viable solution to tackling the problems you know plug in the country and what have you but um looking at it you want to say that the conversation is getting very interesting uh some people have appreciated where we're taking the conversation from it is no longer you know a party conversation it is not about the individual their personality and uh you know what they can do so he cited for instance honesty trust and transparency all of which he said will be displayed when he was governor of anambra state he also emphasized the importance of the next president being educated and experienced and argued that the southeast should be given the opportunity to produce the next president due to the region's resourcefulness and you know educated population but you know to that like other persons would say it's just the fact that if there's been an agreement over time for power rotation then it's it would just be right that power should go to the southeast being that um if you look at it in the history of all of this arrangement the south is has not been in charge uh others are saying oh it's a gentleman's agreement but like i highlighted and if you look at the thoughts of edwin cluck it's that we're moving away from all his of the apc we're moving away from the fact that he's of the pdp we're moving away from the fact that he's these his all of that and we're beginning to talk about individual's capacity um you know their resourcefulness we're looking at the personality rather than party affiliation on ethnic uh you know uh sentiment so yes i know that for sure that we will definitely in our democracy in ijo gets a point where all of this will become um an important factor in shipping the elections in shipping who becomes the governor who becomes the chairman of the local government or the councilor of a certain warden what have you all of these factors in no time it might necessarily not you know be for 2023 but i know that we're getting there and um this would become very important people would not be no longer be interested in whether you're of a certain political party but look at you know your track record and what you can do your personality and that will be the reason why you would be selected but it might also interest you to know that if you don't already know that the elections are around the corner 25th of uh you know February 2023 the presidential election would take place and of course the 11th of March there will also be another election state house of assembly and what have you governorship maybe why but endorsement whether you have anybody endorsing it doesn't really it might have an impact it will have an impact to some extent but the overall power of endorsement lies which you in which you'll vote and so if you don't have your pvc then it's important that you go get your pvc because you are um the the the endorser you are the real deal for endorsing whoever becomes president governor and what have you come 2023 of course in february and march well that's so much we can take on a top trending we take a break when we return we're looking through the papers this morning we call it off the press to the color will you join us or things very cool please stay with us


Hey everyone, this is Dan, S&P reached its peak about 3 weeks ago, it then drifted down for a couple of weeks and recovered a little in the last few days. Unfortunately, it dropped back down by more than 2% today. NASDAQ has dropped 6% from its peak, even worse than S&P. Many people are blaming the current market problem on Evergrande. What is really happening with Evergrande? Will the collapse of Evergrande bring down the US market? How about the container shortage? What other problems are out there? How can we protect our investments if the market does crash? I will answer these questions in the next few minutes. This is going to be a big video with a lot of information, that's why I'm providing this table of contents. I will first look at the SPY and QQQ chart, and look at Google Trends and the Schiller PE Ratio to see how close we are to an actual market crash. And then we'll talk about the issues in China, including Evergrande, the high-non airlines bankruptcy and restructuring process, China's new restrictions on the market and the electricity shortage in China. And then we'll compare the HangSan Index with the S&P Index and the DAX Index for 2015. And then we'll look at what the Chinese government did in 2015 to try to turn around the market, and we'll look at what happened today. And then we'll touch on briefly the world container shortage. We'll look at the 10-year Treasury Rate, the Fed Asset Buying, and overnight reverse repo. And then I'll discuss how the market might recover, and I'll talk about my investment strategies. Let's look at the chart. This is the SPY ETF representing the movement of the S&P Index. As we can see here, it peaked out around September 4th at 454, and then it drifted down for the next 10 days or so, hit the bottom here on September 20th, and then it recovered pretty much for the next 4 or 5 days, but then today it went through a big drop of a little bit more than 2%. Definitely that's not a good sign. If you look at RSI, it was fairly high here, but not extremely high. Nevertheless, the market started to turn downwards. DMI is bearish ever since about 10-12 days ago, same with MACD indicator. This is the only chart for SPY, definitely very bearish since yesterday. RSI hit a high value here about 3 days ago and started to go down. DMI is bearish since yesterday, and MACD is bearish yesterday and today. QQQ, representing the movement of the NASDAQ 100. Similarly, it reached the peak of 382 on September 6th and started to drift downwards for about 10 days. Then it staged a small recovery, but it dropped with this big red candle today. Overall it's 6% from its peak, even worse than S&P, which is 5% from its peak. RSI reached an overboard situation here on 9-6, that's when it started to drift downward. DMI bearish, MACD bearish on a daily chart. On the hourly chart for QQQ, definitely also very bearish just like the SPY for the last couple of days. RSI showed an overboard signal here and also actually here and then DMI bearish since yesterday, MACD also bearish since yesterday. Let's look at Google Trend. The blue line here is the bullish indicator I used, which is the trend for the search phrase best stocks to buy. And the red line here is the bearish indicator, which is the search phrase market crash. In the last 7 days, the bearish indicator has been running higher than the bullish indicator. That means it's a bearish sign. And in the past day, definitely the red line is still above the blue line. So what does all that mean? If you look at the blue line and the red line during the pandemic crash from February to March of 2020, we can see the peak here for the red line and then another bigger peak here march for the red line. These are the corresponding dips in the S&P index in 2020. From the correlation between these two charts, we can see that Google Trends is indeed a good indicator for the market sentiments. Actually it's a leading indicator. That's why I've been monitoring Google Trends. And then if you compare 2020 to today where the red line is comparing to the blue line, it's almost the same situation like in February of 2020 when the pandemic crash was just started here. At this point, it was about to be down 5-6% and eventually S&P dipped 35% before it recovered. Of course, in the next few days, the market might recover and then the red line might go down, but if the red line continues to go up, we better watch out. And that's why I've been spending so much time monitoring the broad market instead of focusing on the individual stocks. Because if the water level is rising, all boats will be lifted. Now we're seeing the reverse, the water level is falling. And I won't be buying a lot more long positions until I see the broad market recover. Let's look at this very important indicator called a SHILLA PE ratio. It's defined by the stock price divided by the 10-year average earnings of all the companies listed in S&P 500. If you look at the SHILLA PE ratio, the higher the ratio, the more likely it is we are going to be confronting with the market correction. So today we're at 37.57. Actually we are in the worst situation than before the year 2020 market crash. And definitely worse than before the 1929 market crash. The only point in history that was worse than today was right before the 2000.com crash. That means the market now is very inflated. Although this ratio has been flashing the warning sign pretty much for the last 2-3 years. So you might say we're just crying wolf but nevertheless it's still important to keep this ratio in mind to understand how inflated the stock market has already been already. For short term indicators, I will definitely look at Google Trends, the RSI indicator as well as DMI and MACD indicators. If you like what you've seen so far, I'd like to encourage you to click the like, subscribe and notification button so that you'll be notified when I publish my next video. It'll also encourage me to make more videos like this in the future. Thank you very much. Let's continue. What's happening in China? Recently the Chinese government announced three red lines in order to curb the over-leveraging in the real estate market. The three red lines are the requirements for the real estate companies. The liability-to-asset ratio should be less than 70%, number two. The net-garing ratio, which is defined by total debt divided by total shareholders' equity, should be less than 100% and the cash-to-short-term debt ratio should be more than one. And if a developer fails to meet one, two, or three of the three red lines, then the regulator will flag them. Evergrande, one of the biggest registered developers in China, violated all three red lines. And subsequently, Evergrande got into financial troubles. This is the stock price of Evergrande. As you can see, since January, it has dropped by more than 83%. Definitely it's not a good sign. Actually, most people say Evergrande is definitely heading into bankruptcy and the question is how messy is it going to get. This is a summary of Evergrande. As of 2020, they reported $79 billion of revenues that's translated into U.S. dollars and they had $9.9 billion of net income. Also they have $147 billion of assets. On the surface, it looked pretty good until everything started to unravel. As of today, they have more than $300 billion of liabilities, which they have problem repaying. Compared to Lehman Brothers, before its collapse in 2008, Lehman Brothers owed $600 billion. Definitely twice the amount of what Evergrande owes. But if you look at Bear Stearns, which was really the first diameter to fall in 2008, Bear Stearns owed $384 billion before it collapsed. And Evergrande is definitely in the same league as Bear Stearns, that's why it's so alarming. As of September 24th, Evergrande was not able to make interest payments to its global bound holders. The situation seems to be getting worse and worse of Evergrande. It looks like some kind of bankruptcy is inevitable. The question is how messy is it going to get. Here is a similar situation in China. A company by the name of Hainan Airlines, HNA Group, recently also went into financial troubles. Here's a summary of what happened with Hainan. It was founded in 1989 and it currently has 221 aircrafts, it's quite a big airline. But it also owns other properties and companies. At its peak, Hainan bought 9.9% of Deutsche Bank and 26.1% of Hilton worldwide holdings. That's the parent company of the famous Hilton hotels. As of today, they pretty much sold off all these foreign holdings. Electrally, some of the Hainan officers and shareholders embezzled nearly $10 billion from the company. It was announced on January 19 that HNA had entered into bankruptcy restructuring with about $90 billion in debt, only about one-third of the debt of Evergrande. Nevertheless, there's still a lot of money. It was reported that HNA will be broken into 4 components and one important piece is the airlines. Looks like the government is determined to keep the airlines running. But all the equity held by its old shareholders will be wiped out. Therefore, Evergrande will most likely follow the same path. And then after that announcement, on September 27, it was reported that HNA Group will receive strategic investment of $38 billion yuan or $5.88 billion US dollars after its restructuring, which will keep some of its operations including the airlines in business. And then on September 24, the chairman of HNA, Mr. Cheng Fang, was arrested by the Chinese police, probably related to the embezzlement charges. There are other headline issues happening in China. Most recently, it was reported that there's a power crunch in China. Factories, including those supplying Apple and Tesla, have gotten their electricity turned off because of the latest government control measures. Another report saying that 16 of the 31 provinces in China are under some kind of electricity restriction because of Beijing's emission reduction targets and because of the rising price of coal. Definitely that's not a good sign. The energy shortage will further impact China's stock market, which already has been depressed since January. We'll look at that chart later. In addition, the Chinese governments are cracking down on a few issues related to social problems. What are they? They are definitely the real estate developers. That's what triggered Evergrande's problems. And then they've been adding restrictions on e-commerce, including Alibaba, Tencent and End Financial. They have imposed more restrictions on internet gaming, right hailing, as related to DD, which is the equivalent of the Uber operation in China. Person-to-person lending, which the government didn't like what's going on with person-to-person lending on the internet. And that industry pretty much has been wiped out in the last six, seven months. And then, of course, a reduction of power consumption and carbon footprint, which led to the electricity shutdown in the various provinces. The famous 2015 market drop was generally attributed to what happened in China. This is a description from Wikipedia about the 2015 and 2016 stock market sell-off. It says the stock market sell-off was because of the Chinese market turbulence and because of slowing growth in the GTP of China, which rippled into the rest of the world. In addition, there were other problems in the world, for example, the fall in petroleum prices, the Greek debt default in June of 2015, definitely that had a very severe impact on the rest of the world, and the end of quantitative easing in the United States. In October of 2014, a sharp rise in bond yields in early 2016, and finally Brexit. How do all these compare to what's happening today? We'll talk more about that in the next few minutes. Let's look at what happened in 2015. The candlestick chart here is a hand-send index representing the well-being of the Chinese stock market. And then the purple line here is a DAX index representing the European market and the blue line here is the SPY representing the US market. As we can see, the hand-send index dropped first in May of 2015. The drop of DAX followed that and lag for about two months, and then the US index also lagged by about two months, actually a little bit more than two months. And then during the second leg of the drop for the hand-send index, the DAX and the S&P lagged behind by about one month. So there's a time delay effect there. Overall, hand-send dropped 30%, and DAX dropped about two-thirds of that, about 20%, and S&P dropped at least 10 to 12% before they recovered. Let's look at today. Hand-send already dropped 18% from its peak in June, and now we see the DAX and SPY. They followed the hand-send about two months later. We might be seeing a repeat of this year if the situation doesn't improve quickly in China. What did the Chinese government do in 2015 to try and stabilize the market? First, the Chinese government provided funding and liquidity to stay on banks, and they prohibited actually stock sales by major shareholders. They also restricted short-selling and eventually the government started buying stocks to shore up the major companies. So what's happening today? As of September 28th, it was reported that the central bank already started to inject liquidity into the market, similar to what they did in 2015. Let's hope the Chinese government will do more to stabilize your markets. What else is happening in the world to aggravate the market? Well, there is currently a container shortage. According to Healer Brand, which is a major forwarding company, the containers are piled up in cargo ports and onboard vessels and on trans-pacific lines. Why? Because of the pandemic, which hits North America and the rest of the world. And China recover from the pandemic sooner than the rest of the world. And that's why when the containers are sent, for example, to North America, they come in, but they don't easily come out. And that's why there's a 40% imbalance of containers. That means for every 100 containers that arrive in North America, only 40 of them have been returned and 60 of them have been kept in North America. And that's why there's a container shortage. And you might say, well, don't we just build more containers? But that takes time. It'll take months before more containers can be built to alleviate a shortage. There's an article saying that an all-time high of 56 cargo ships are stuck waiting off the California coast. The container shortage and the transportation problems will most likely make the bear market even worse if they don't improve in the near future. And that's why we've got to be careful. This is the chart listing the freight rate for containers. As you can see, since July of last year, the price has gone up one in eight times. Big jump. Let's look at the 10-year Treasury yield. The 10-year Treasury yield index has shown that in the last 12 months, it has gone up 130%. Definitely, we are seeing that increasing. Remember the Wikipedia summary of what caused the 2015-2016 market drop? One of the items was the increase in bound yields. And if the 10-year Treasury yield and the other Treasury rates continue to go up, it will certainly cause the bound yields to go up. That will be a very bearish driving force for the market. Let's look at Federal Reserve Bank asset buying. The Federal Reserve Bank has been buying asset at a steady pace of $120 billion a month, which is called QE, Quantitative Easing. A lot of people said that the reason why the stock market has been so bullish in the last few years is because of the very accommodative QE policies. And if you look at this chart, indeed, the Federal Reserve Bank has been injecting a lot of money in the market. But most recently, there's something called the overnight reverse repo. It has reached the magnitude of $1.3 trillion a night. Reverse repo is basically the reverse of asset buying. With the overnight reverse repo operation, the Federal Reserve Bank is allowing the banks to buy treasuries from the Fed on an overnight basis. And currently, it's at $1.3 trillion a day. And compared to last month, it increased by $200 billion. So on the one hand, the Fed is injecting $120 billion into the market. On the other hand, it's taking away $200 billion in the market during the last month. In other words, the Fed in the last month has taken more money out of the market than it put in. And maybe that's why the market has been flattening and actually going down. If you look at what happened in the last few days, the reverse repo operation has decreased. Maybe that's how the Federal Reserve Bank is trying to avoid a major market crash. I would definitely be monitoring this chart very carefully. How might the market recover? First, the appropriate government actions from China will help a lot. For example, they can continue to increase liquidity of the bank to prevent a complete freeze up of the financial system. And they can ease up on regulations and restrictions. They can bail out Evergrande and other large troubled companies, although that's not likely. Looking at high non-aligned restructuring, the government will be involved somewhat to try to engineer orderly the solution of these troubled companies, including Evergrande. And the government might even buy stocks to shore up the market, like what they did in 2015. Or they can restrict selling of stocks by large shareholders, like what they did in 2015. And the US Federal Reserve Bank can do a lot to help shore up the US market. Number one, the Fed Chairman, Jerome Power, can make accommodating remarks, including the remarks he made last week to the FOMC press conference. And indeed, the remarks he made was very soothing to the market. And that's why the market went up. The two, three days after Jerome Power made his remark. And they can delay the tapering of QE, which has been widely anticipated in the last two, three months. And they didn't delay the interest rate increase. Although, as we can see, the 10-year treasury rate has been gradually creeping up already. The faster the treasury rates go up, the more damaging it is to the market. Or they could decrease the overnight reverse repo to keep more money in the market, keep more liquidity in the market. And I'll definitely be monitoring any news items or indicators related to any of these items in the near future. What are my strategies? First of all, I've been selling shares to locking profits or to cut losses. I sold some shares of BNTX, ASML, RCL, Royal Caribbean, and T-Triple-Q. And I bought some SQQQ shares to hedge my long positions. And I'll sell even more long positions if the market continues to deteriorate. I will continue to monitor the SPY 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages, as well as the 200-day simple moving average, and any other key support and resistance levels for both SPY and QQQ. I will hold on to stocks with good fundamentals, such as Tom and Sammy Conductor, Google, and ASML. And I've been keeping some shares of recovery stocks, including Royal Caribbean, the Jets ETF, and LUV Southwest Airlines. And I've been keeping shares of Moderna and BioNTech for the long term, because I'm bullish on these vaccine stocks. And I'll continue to monitor the technical indicators, including RSI, DMI, and MAC, for signs of recovery. When I buy or sell shares, and when I see any major news development, I will communicate with my subscribers by way of my Twitter account. For example, on September 20th, I tweeted that I sold NVIDIA share that I bought on August 12 at 4.6% gain to lock my profit. And then on September 27, I tweeted that I sold more BNTX and QQQ share. And I mentioned that Evergrande will most likely be divided and absorbed into other companies. And I said I would publish an update video on Evergrande in the next couple of days, which is this video. My Twitter account is DanMarketL. I'd like to encourage you to subscribe to my Twitter account. Again, I'd like to encourage you to click the like, subscribe, and notification button. As usual, I very much welcome your comments, questions, and suggestions. I'd like to remind you that I'm not a financial advisor. I share my stock trading strategies and analyses for educational purposes only. If you want to buy or sell shares, you should make your own decisions. And you should definitely sell with your financial advisors before you do so. This wraps up my video for now. I will chat with you again in the next few days. In the meanwhile, I'd like to wish you the very best of luck with your financial investments.


Well, Nintendo has done it. They have finally admitted that they may not have enough Nintendo switches for the holiday season, at least in the United States. That is, if President, and I believe CEO or CEO, whatever his other title is in Nintendo comes down to. He has spoken out now at an event for Variety at their little keynote. He talked about the Switch and a lot of other things in Nintendo, but the biggest thing that we're taking away from it is that he said that the Nintendo Switch may not be in stock for the holidays or they might not have enough stock. Here are the exact words. He says, certainly the demand is there and our supply chain is there to hit the 10 million unit goal we set for ourselves earlier this year, but Reggie stopped short of committing to fulfilling the demand for the coming holiday season. He goes on to say, are we going to have enough for the holiday? That's what we are focused on. So Reggie is essentially saying that there is a chance that Nintendo is not going to have enough units for the holiday season. So anyone hoping that there's going to be this massive influx of units enough to cover Super Mario Odyssey and Black Friday sales and all that stuff might be in for a rude awakening because the Nintendo Switch is looking like it's going to be hard to get for a while. What that means for most of you guys is that the methods you've been using to try to find a Switch so far, be it calling the stores or checking online or studying the bots or doing whatever you need to do, you're going to have to keep doing it and it kind of sucks. I'd say I'd sympathize, but I preordered it. In fact, preordering it was rather easy in my area, but I also live in the middle of Wisconsin and I don't live in a very highly populated area, like the biggest town next to us, about 60,000 people, something like that. So it's not tiny, but definitely wasn't that hard to line up and get one the very first day they were available to preorder in person. I think that's the key thing. I did it in person. I think of a lot of people who tried to do it online weren't willing to do it in person or they couldn't because they had to work. I don't know. I understand. But it's going to be a difficult holiday season. What we can say is that when you finally do get a Switch, which might be some time in 2018, you're going to have a huge library of games to come back to. I mean, let's just think about the library of games that have come to Switch so far. Launched with Breath of the Wild. Just an awesome, amazing, in my opinion, the best game ever made, period. Not just the best Switch game. You got Puyi Puyi Tetris. Love Puyi Puyi Tetris. You know, I've been playing a lot of Mario Bros. Kingdom Battle lately. We've got NBA 2K, Skyrim coming, L.A. Noir. Oh man, that's before we even talk about Splatoon 2 and Arms and Super Mario Odyssey. I mean, that's just the tip of the iceberg. There are so many quality games coming on at Switch this year that when you finally can get your hands on one, you're definitely not going to have a shortage of games to play. Game Droughts. The Switch has no idea what those things even are.   But yeah, it sounds like the Nintendo Switch, at least in the United States, is going to continue to be sold out through the holiday season. Yeah, I'm sorry. Anyways, folks, I am with Indie Ruffa Jets from Nintendo Prime. If you liked this video, you know what to do and if you disliked the video, hit that dislike button. Subscribe for more and as always, folks, I will catch you in the next one.


I've always found sort of like security and power and just knowing things and one of the most important things you can know is history and this is this is a big part of history here. We have this and a goal. Want to clean it up we want to make it look almost brand new. The cannon itself was actually captured in 1912 the Nano War started in 1896 I believe and went until 1934. After it was captured in 1912 Colonel Pendleton went ahead and brought it back over here to America and it was with him until he passed away and then his widow in 1943 went ahead and gave this cannon to Camp Pendleton. When we first saw this, this eagle, we just thought it was just some random bird like where maybe it's it's some Nicaraguan bird or something we put on there. The only reason we were able to identify this as an American cannon is because of the eagle on here. This is a very unique eagle image to America and in fact the moment I went ahead and I started uncovering it I was like it was this big discovery of woe. This is actually one of our cannons we're working on. Nobody knew that before. It started out basically stripping off all the old paint and it was actually multiple different layers of cart paint. It was a combination of sandblasting, a little bit of a dremel work, sanding, grinding, different chemicals like acetone and other things like that. That took about 40-50 hours straight work on it. The pieces there absolutely filled with old pits and they're all scratched up and you're having to get this very high-quality, very tough paint out of it without actually damaging it. I'm truly honored to be able to work on something like this. I mean you take a standard metalworker from this random walk of life and putting him on something like this I'm humbled by it. I mean this this cannon is a major it's a major part of history. It's it's Colonel Penelton's own personal cannon that was gifted to him well after he went ahead and captured them from from the hill in Nicaragua.