t They like I mean the the loon um Smash your fanatics don't really use it the ball and chain guys the other dudes whatever Okay, squig heard now moves d6 plus five inches So between six and 11 inches is their move Meaning you can't You know roll out and get like one bad. Just like oh, no, they moved two or three the worst okay, um Hurting squigs this unit cannot receive commands However at the start of your hero phase you can roll one die for each squig herder in this unit for each two plus You get to return d3 slain cave squigs for each one one squig herder in the unit is slain because they eat him Which is fun And squig gone wild each time a cave squig in this unit flees before the model is removed from play roll a die on a Two-plus you can pick an enemy unit within nine inches of that model and that unit suffers one mortal wound Uh, these guys are interesting. I don't know. I don't I'm not sure I buy the 36 pack yet I'm not really not sure. I don't as just like to go bomb it But I think maybe I buy a couple of msu things of these guys. They're bravery three And I'm not sure if I care if anybody runs I want to see what this like I think people will play with these in different varieties um What I'll say is this I think these guys are good is what I'll say But I think we're gonna play with what number to take them in go for it They can pretty reliably get across the table Yes And you're shoving 72 wounds into their face Uh, yeah, sure Yeah, okay and When they flee It's nine inches now So let's say the range to reach behind the line Yeah, like so then let's say that you make Like you kill 10 of them That's 20 wounds coming into these guys because you could give them a five up board pretty easily as well Um, like before they go in They go five up board They go into something hot You're gonna remove a bunch of them, right? Because they're like they have almost no difference other than one But 72 wounds on a five up board. Let's say that they lift 10 of them Okay, which would be a lot of damage. That's 20 damage. You're about through that's 20 damage, uh cutting through.   They could have like there's actually many ways to increase the attacks of these guys, right? Yeah, but um And and as he says you can have them without problem move up to 24 inches and on the charge to 2.4 damage Against the 2 up save per squig like it's a lot. They could get the rent from uh from the um uh Little dorks the five-pack of dorks whose name gava believes it. There we go. Sorry a lot of silly names Yeah, I don't know like I'm I'm always risky on the double reinforce of something that's so Potentially fragile like for it to just evaporate and not work in your favor in some way But that being said if you're right that if they if they make like 10 run, okay And so you're down to like 12 dudes now in the year uh 16 dudes in the unit, right? Like you lost 10 and then 10 more run. Yeah. Yeah, but if you're with the mortal wounds you're able to Zap the unit they were in combat with to death Or you kill that support hero nine. I understand the value of that. That's the that's the smooth brain play That's the bonus right right The the what i'm saying is if you zap the unit they're in combat with out of existence and then it rolls to the next turn This is a moon clan unit So If it can rally It just pops on a rally on a four up and i'm gonna roll 20 dice and get 10 Squiggy's back. Oh wait, I can't rally. I'm sorry. They can't receive commands. Never mind. I can't really see Yeah, I can't really know. Yeah. Yeah, but but you're gonna have six hurters and you're gonna re return most of the time 5d3 just from the hurters. Yeah, there you go. That's I was thinking of it. Yes. It's on a 2 plus 5d3. So you're gonna put back another 10 Just from hurters one average. Yeah, so so like I think there's real gas in just a suicide bombing unit of Twix right Yep Because it's just a problem that has to be dealt with And if they don't deal with it with all of the attack buffs and with all that heat that they're going to come in on Like it's going to be a nightmare. Yeah, no, they're good. Like I said Yes, they have their own rally that works in melee. Yes, exactly what tom said. Um Yeah, I mean, I think they're good. I'm just not sure what the right number is Is it missiles of them in msu or is it big packs of? Like in in what you're describing and I'm not sure about that yet. I don't know But they're strong Square curds are strong Yeah, so I uh, so I I am seriously Yeah, so Paul are you happy about square curds? They're fun. Um, I prefer the hoppers but It it again it comes down to the opportunity cost of like Do I take the square curds and I take those points away from the hoppers or I take them away from the boundaries or Like they're good, but they're not as fast as everything else in the squig list Sure, you know and and everything else is going to be faster And you're going to be more reliable to get them across the board because they're they've got 10 plus d6 instead of five plus d6 Yeah, when you get these guys run in charge and auto run six Like you you could get these guys across the table Well, absolutely you could but you could get the squig hoppers in a a better position And then you could rally them on a form you like and It's it's the thing where when we get to the the squig hero Right, like he does fun things with the squig Now with the bounders right and they do fun things together and so It it's hard it it it's hard decisions Which is what you want from a battle tone look like do I go with the squig herds? Do I Go with the squig hoppers that go with the bounders like there's so many different options in these lists Good call they can't be auto ran by the way Yeah, we keep tripping on that. Yes. They cannot that cannot receive commands keeps tripping us up Yeah, yeah, it's a hard thing to reset your brain too, right? You can get a plus three movement from the from the mushroom feeder guy though. Sorry. Yeah, right But you can do that to the squig hoppers too. Sure. All right Let's talk about the loon boss on giant cave squig. He's pretty straightforward eight wounds four up save 140 points The important part about him is he chain activates with moingrop bounders that that's his yeah um, right Yep, so That there you go. That's that's what he does Um, it's fine. I mean three damage on the Savva is pretty fun on the charge He has three damage and rend two on the stab on the charge. Yes. This goblin is he's he's sell a fourp to hit Which is good. I'm glad that saved fourp to hit. It should be But it's good Cool squig hoppers and bounders we mentioned him. Let's talk about him 180 for 10 battle line all the time Hoppers are are And 140 for five battle line with the moon clan general the bounders Uh, and they pretty much work a lot how you thought they used to um That is to say The uh squig hoppers go boing boing boing and after they make a normal move run or retreat You can pick an enemy unit and for all the models you have the pass cross models They have you roll a die and every four up causes a mortal wound Other than that, they're they're quite a good cheap delivery mechanism as it were Not as cheap as a squig herd, but uh, by the way, they the loon boss moves d6 plus seven inches These guys move d6 plus 10 inches base. So they are quite they are quite speedy At between 11 and 16 inches movement. That's quite fast, obviously um So cool And they are you know, a good decent delivery mechanism for the for a bunch of fang filled gobs And everything you might want to do with that In in very high numbers, but they are on 32 mil bases, which is always a concern, of course Because they are still one inch reach down the line so Yep The bounders however are 140 for five or 280 for 10 or 420 for 15 which they can go up to 15 because they can be battle line They have their little boing smash So they can which is when they make a charge move you pick an enemy unit within an inch and roll a die for each model on a four Up they suffer a mortal wound Um, do these things fly? Yes. Yes, they all fly. I just didn't bother to copy that. Yes. All of the squig things have fly except for the herds Yeah, go ahead except for the herds don't fly the herds and that that's the thing is You can't deflect them You can you can stop the herds because they don't have fly you can't stop the hoppers You can't stop the bonders because they have fly as long as you get a decent move I think one of the heroes doesn't have the fly Description in it like the correct the one on giant cave squig can't fly. Yes, right. Yeah currently He doesn't have that the hoppers and the bounders can fly Yeah Yes, I just didn't bother to copy it over because I was more concerned about retyping like I had to retype all these by hand folks So it took a long time. I apologize. I didn't like when it came to companions and mounts and champions. I was like, look, they got them It's fine. We all know they got them Okay cool Uh, I mean and then boy grots also their little poking lances can also get neg one or an additional one rend in one damage So, you know Pretty scary Yeah, they're nice And these are the guys that I was playing with and like I played with the herd. It was okay. It it it just doesn't move far enough for me and the not fly is real Real downfall against the hoppers and the bounders And I get that there's utility, but like it's just it's nice to have a wave that just can get where you need it to go And then you can double activate Um with the the bounders and the hero And it's it's fun and yeah No, I agree. I agree. My only sound the herd is just the meat 72 wounds is a lot of wounds. Yeah It is a lot and the uh You know the Oh, just a quick note on the movement the bounders are d6 plus seven like the guy on the giant cave swing as opposed to the hoppers Which are d6 plus 10 so There you go Okay Because I didn't have pictures herald. Um, so here we go of everything I had pictures of some here we go If I would have waited six hours, I would have had pictures of everything, but hey, who knows like that's the next I gotta work on these days in advance of things Um, okay loon boss on mangler squig. He's 370 points now. Oh boy Uh, and he's and in my estimation, I think he's worth it. It's 14 wins four up save Uh, his move is you know d6 plus 10 to then back to d6 plus 10 through with the seven and five Chain he still has the get better. He's actually the most dangerous now on his last two wounds completely He doesn't just go back To the beginning he gets Um, he gets actually better better um the Mooncutta little guy on top got a little bit of a buff at five attacks threes and threes neg one two damage base Um, we he lost the little goofy Thank you The the thing he could do the game like plus one a hidden room or whatever now. He's just threes and threes all the time Um, they have a really good uh curse flat rule now Where after this unit makes a charge move pick one enemy unit within one inch of this unit Roll a dia for each model in that unit to a maximum of 10 for each four plus That unit suffers one mortal wound. I like that quite a bit in the current season Makes them real good against big units not as good against individual heroes obviously, but it's cool Um, this thing obviously is a monster and can do monster things and has the monster jump with the monster section We talked about earlier in the beginning of the show so he can then bounce again deeper into the enemy line He can also float away like all the loon bosses can Uh, so he could bounce in attack bounce away, you know very very mobile hero, right? um When he uh dies his little his little explosion is now on a three at three inches six And he can still bite the moon, but it's not a command thing anymore. It's just once per battle At the start of the combat phase You can say we use this ability if you do so until the end of that phase add one to wound rolls for friendly squig units Well, they're holy within 18 inches of this unit So Plus one to wound pretty good in a in a you know in a big old radius That's pretty nice both And obviously this guy has you know some real damage potential makes a lot of attacks Uh with some good abilities like he's solid You can also if you're going for the pure build you the pure sort of damage build you can make it so his Uh fang filled gob and balls and chains are on twos and twos at uh And then rend two or sorry rend yeah, uh rend two on the on the gob as well, which is cool I'm so you're you got multiple attacks at rend two on twos and twos. That's a solid profile to be sure See to be sure. Okay, you get it And then the regular mangler is basically the same thing but without the hero guy So no bite to moon and no hero guy And 260 points so you know um It will definitely be shot at in this army because it is your best If you have the enemy has guns, they will all go weapons free on this guy It will be the only logical target because this is the thing not immune to shooting Um, how much does pregnant us again? I don't know like 720 I think something like that 700 720 a lot Like a lot Uh gen s if you were someone who bought the squiggle ranch, would you run two loon boss manglers or one of each? Hmm Probably one of each because I think you need to soup if like you're going in hard on a mangler strategy I like him when he's souped up and you can't soup up two of them So you might as well you might as well not pay retail for the second one and just and just get the the cool abilities out of him Like you can only use the monstrous action one She's going to the artifact ones the command trade ones and so on and so forth, right But I could see one being like a fighty one and one being a bounce away one or something or I don't I don't know There's options Okay, sorry. I just jumped like 50 pages. All right. Here we go trogoths um, the dank old trogoths I don't think they're worth it. You can see the war scroll. They're 180 points I just don't think they're worth it mainly because of what we're about to talk about on the next page They're fine if you really like them cool. I don't think they're bad I just think they're at best average in a selection of trogs that are good Really good That's my issue trog boss. I'm in for trog boss 12 wounds four up save Greater regeneration at the start of the hero phase. You can heal up to d6 wounds allocated to this unit In glogs. He's healing d6 in each player's hero phase and each player's combat phase As long as he's fighting And you and you can take the command trait to make him a monster with 14 wounds. Yeah Uh-huh. Yeah, you can Or or make him also like cast a spell or whatever. Yeah Yeah, um, and he's a trog so you can get plus one to save and all of that from the moon and so on and so forth You know get up four up ward All this is all true statements. This is all true statements I think this guy's uh, I think this guy's a house That's what yes that 20 extra points is doing a lot of work. I agree That's the problem like 180 for the regular dude, but 200 for the special guy Like this dude is pretty beastly like Yes, his damage is still very swingy because he's on the d6 as opposed to the d3 plus three and You know, he's he's three and three instead of three and two. I don't care It's not really why I took him. He just becomes an incredibly resilient quality piece that you can stack a bunch of stuff on Uh And importantly here we go again Shepherd of destruction This is what we were teasing earlier when this unit issues the all out attack command to friendly gloomspike gets trogoth unit In the combat phase until the end of that phase add one to the attacks characteristic of weapons used by that unit I wish at this moment so bad. Yeah melee units. Yes.  That just happened. I'm sorry. What? Like what No, but really what's one to hit plus one to hit and plus one attacks. What's what's wrong with that? I see no issues here fantastic Just fantastic just roar them. It'll be fine And just roar them. That's all you gotta do Uh, it's easy Um, yeah, so This guy's super good. I like him. I think he's great as a general. I think he's great in a lot of ways like Cool, I'm down. I'm down like a clown Uh, Leroy Jenkins a normal dank hold out damages an equivalent unit of rock cuts though even with extra attacks dank holds still keep the lead Yes, that's why i'm not using rock cuts rock trolls to attack because they're not the attackers anymore No, no, that's my new hot pick. I've always been a fan of fell water traugas that I mentioned that I've always been a fell water traugas supporter Uh, they're 160 for three. They're battle line with a dank hold general They have a vomit that's a six inch attack. It's short range, but it hits on twos wounds on threes It's rend two and does d three damage and then they have their two spike or they're they're sorry They're two inch range for attacking spiked clubs on threes and threes neg one two damage Is that right? I want to make sure I got that right neg one two damage for the fell waters. Yes Okay, good. I have the right numbers. I just wanted to make sure Yep, I got the right numbers. Okay. Cool. Cool They regenerate as well D three in the hero and then d three if you're fighting in glocks if you uh, so that's cool They're still neg one to be hit Now we need to get your face. Yeah at the start of the hero phase. Yeah started the hero phase. Yep, sure is Now we need to get to the power, baby Uh, let's get vomiting Uh noxious vomit if any wounds caused by this unit's noxious vomit are allocated to an enemy unit and not negated That enemy unit is drenched in vomit until the start Of your next hero phase That is a very long time Well unit is drenched in vomit Subtract one from save rolls for attacks that target that unit from anybody And in addition Ignore positive modifiers to save rolls for attacks that target that unit A unit cannot be drenched in vomit more than once at a time Okay Uh, great question Assistant ref. No, they are not elite and no, they do not have a champion.  Let's put these guys into the most brutal anvil we can imagine Let's talk about some nergal chaos warriors with the banner Okay, they've got the banner kicking All that kind of thing right So these dudes are on like a three up base And they they can easily get plus two to save so they're on like a one up effectively It's a very hard unit to move right But if a single wound resolves from noxious vomit against those guys, which is questionable I admit Because they have to you have to get through There's a single one get rolled. That's the question. Does a single one get rolled? Yeah, well, they wouldn't be on one up against your neg two rent So it's like do you get a one or two right? Okay, but if it happens Then all of a sudden That unit is now No longer on a one up save against your melee attacks Okay Instead Uh They don't get any of the bonuses And they're neg one and your rend they're on a five up They have minus isn't your rend minus one or is a minus two in melee on the noxious vomit minus two on the spike club minus one Right.   You can't benefit from positives. They're neg one from noxious vomit. They're neg one from rend Yep, it's a negative. Oh, yeah. Yeah. Oh, yeah Yeah, welcome to a five up save you're dead cast warriors.  Yeah, just nothing Yep Like these guys slap No, the banner doesn't work. Is it a is it a positive modifier? Then no it doesn't work Right. Yep. Uh ignore positive modifiers To save the banners of Plus one to save right Uh, no the banners, um Uh The nercle banners neg one to rend so I mean it would put a negative four up if you didn't kill a four up. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah Um, but remember of course, this is all just the baseline troll um Like we're not talking about putting extra Extra extra everything on What's meaningful is that these guys are assisting another actual hammer unit whether it's them or whether it's a big hero Or whether it's you know or whatever like I I know that you talked about these guys being a hammer themselves and that's fine I think I may like them in threes Better than as like a block of six or nine.  I will also point out that yes people are saying the six inch range is limiting It is and i'm glad it's on a six inch range if this was longer it'd be unbelievably brutal People can sometimes redeploy away from you like redeploy is in is in panacea And if people are constantly blowing their command points to redeploy away from me. I'm pretty happy about it. Honestly Uh, like that's great. Roll that diet on a 50 50 chance. I still get to shoot you right And it works on only shell Yeah Yeah, and that's and to me that's where the gas is is when they come in Yep Yep So I just think it's there. They're great and I at at a battle line 160 for three. I'm in I'm in like fling for them It's a super great only shall ability. It's great on the o great on the d Uh, they're strong Rock guts, I have a question because I'm not sure how one of their abilities works But that's fine and get to that.  They still have a ward of five up Oh, I'll point out that you could give the fell water Five upwards with the by by every by being snuffle in every day Yeah, um So but uh, you know, here you are But they have a base still every generation they throw boulders and I don't know how this works Okay Like do not use the attack sequence for an attack made with throwing boulders Instead pick one enemy unit within range and roll a dice Add one to the roll if the target has five or more models on a four plus that enemy suffers one mortal wound Do I roll for each troll? Uh before you didn't I think you do now I think I do now because it's specifically because it's one attack one attack Yes, correct. Yeah, I think I roll one per troll Correct Which is better than their 1d3 Correct 1d3 total. Yeah, so if I got a little pack of six, I throw several six dice and get three mortal wounds out of it So that's cool.  And so they're just going to do work Yeah, it being an attack profile sealed it in my mind. We had to just walk through it there Yeah, as I typed it out. I was like, wait a minute. How many of these am I throwing? But yes All right, let's close out with the spiders and get rolling scuttle boss on gigantic spider He does what he does his his the thing that matters. They all have spider venom. It's what you think it is Six is to hit jail mortals and five ups in the moon and blah blah blah But the damage is variable based based on what was terrible Uh, okay Um The and they all have wall crawler and all that they still, you know walk over terrain and stuff not people but terrain Uh scuttle away once for battle at the end of the combat phase You can say this unit will order his warriors to scuttle away If you do so pick one friendly spider riders unit holy within 12 Of this unit that unit and the unit you picked can retreat one after the other in the order of your choice Awesome, that's fun. Yeah, super cool The to hit also went from four plus to three plus Yeah, and the damage on the spear one from one to two. Yeah, that's super nice Yeah And he's 130 points and the move went up to 10 inches And the wounds went up to eight And he can take the cool headdress that makes him, uh, only be hit on fives Unfortunately, he has a mount so he's targeted. He's not a gc He's still a much more reliable unit than he was No, he has a mount he does have a mount. Yes He's just saying he's not a gc. No, he's not but he's just saying he's much more reliable than he was Yeah, I'm saying but he can still take the headdress and make that so yeah, even if he started He's only hit on fives, which is you know, quite quite defensive like this. Yeah Uh spider riders are still spider riders. They're 90 points for five. They're about a line with a spider fang general They still do what they do. It's venom in the wall crawlers. They have bad bows and bad spears They refuse to dip in this venom yeah, like Like this was one ability away from being a usable scroll And it just means that let their bows and their weapons Uh Get the poison. Yeah, and that's to be clear That's a little mistyped by me because I just didn't fill out all the words because it was running quick It's if the unmodified hit roll for an attack made by this unit's fangs is six That attack causes a mortal wound like to be super clear. I didn't type it there But it's only on the fangs. Do you get the mortal wounds? Yeah If it had been the fangs spear and bow then you would have a usable unit that has a very interesting niche in the army As it is now it does not have a perfect Yeah Web spinner shaman little 65 point boy He's a little boy He is a wizard. He's a one cast wizard with a ward of five up Cheapest wizard in the arm in the game now. He's he's a super easy way 65 Yeah, yeah, he's he's cheap as chips Uh speed of spider god is his spell you can pick a friendly spider fanning unit Holy within range invisible to the caster casting by 4 24 inch range Until your next hero phase that unit can run and still shoot and or charge If you get an eight or more you get d3 friendly spider fan units instead. So Yep That's fun. That's fun. You can get an arachnor off your cross stable with that. Sure sure But yes, he's uh, he'll probably show up a lot just because he's so God awful cheap as a wizard like just That is that is bargain basement wizarding right there And and he can curse do that hurt the 24 inch curves of the spider god if you'll remember sure that makes the ones and twos fail Yep, so he's a great delivery mechanism for that even in like normal troll armies or whatever Paul are you excited about the arachnor rock spider spiketer? Apparently is what I wrote there. That's fun. Yes with war party Can we talk about how they finally did it? They went and did it This unit counts as 10 models for the purposes of contesting objectives Hallelujah, we got there right right because you have the dudes on top and the monster There's 10. There's 10 models Uh unfurl the banner mission accomplished paul. What do you think about this guy? Oh, it's awesome I mean Besides the fact that all the arachnor rocks get three base damage now from the monstrous fangs It's just it it's fantastic. Um, and the move is now a static Yeah, it doesn't go down. It's just 10 inches So you're not wondering around with any bracket at all. I know or they do bracket Yes, but the chin is like the attacks and the to hit on the monstrous fangs brackets The chin is legs go eight seven six five. They don't go down to four anymore And the monstrous fangs never get worse than a four up to hit correct So, no, yeah, I mean, it's great Let's uh, let's let's move this along. I want to talk about that All right, we're right on Web spinner shaman on arachnor rock coming in at 270 Not a bad deal For this guy. Uh, not at all He's got his little catch web spider shrine still Plus wanted casting rolls and unbinding rolls for friendly spider fang wizards while they're holy within 12 inches Given a bonus to cast to that 65 point wizard. Not a bad deal at all Still got venom still got wall crawler has the venom of the spider god Uh, let's him pick a friendly spider fang unit and range on a six up with 18 18 inches Until the start of your next hero phase add one to the number of mortal wounds caused by the spider venom ability Of that unit if the unmodified hit will roll six It's only if you roll a six the unmodified hit has to be six It's not on the five and six. It's just on the six on the six Uh, if the casting roll was 10 or more pick up to t3 units instead of one cool, uh, that dude good it's all like 270s I think reasonable for the package this guy brings to the table. I really do In getting a bonus to cast you know for him and for buddies nearby is great Yep for all your little or all your little cheap boys Double cast are single all right the flinger. Let's talk about it tom So they got 10 little spider bows. I see unfortunately their little spider bows only have a 60 inch range They need to go over and talk to the shooters You know really get up to the better range there But all the spider bows now are four plus five plus instead of five plus five plus So it's not massive, but it's it's a difference the spider learn how to walk with more stability to keep them in And the bows on the back went from eight to ten two So you've got more attacks. Yeah, so they're shooting two per exactly So let's talk about that flinger the attacks characteristic of a flinger is equal to the number of models in the target unit to a maximum of 20 In addition if any attacks made with this unit's flinger score a hit just a hit hits on three up. So it's not that hard Any of any of the attacks Yeah, yeah score a hit. Yeah after those attacks have been resolved roll a die on a two up the target unit is entangled And you have its move Cool, what's the range on that? 36 inches I love it. I love like this is wonderful tech utility Being able to have a unit's movement at 36 inches reliably because Yes, it's going to not be as reliable Against a single model. Like so against a single model. It's going to be a three up two up To have their movement. That's still really good Like that's those are numbers that I would gamble with with beyond right Like to cut his movement in half Okay, um And so I think that it's reliable enough for movement hindrance And that combined with it being able to actually maybe do some damage against like multiple like Higher model count units. Like I really like everything that this is doing Like this is a very interesting option Yeah, well and If any of them hit on a three plus Right, right, and then a two plus they're entangled as opposed to before it was even six If there's more than five you could make it a five and then if there's More than ten you can make it a four. No, this is just this is really reliable comparatively Yep, it's just hitting on a three plus because that's what you said right It's three plus four plus for the profile or three plus three plus three plus three plus three plus So you can assault and go two plus two plus Two plus to hit two plus to entangle so like that's Like if you want to have movement, it'll do that even if it's not doing damage Like so I just I I think this is a wonderful tech piece. I don't know that a lot of people are going to run it Um, but I think that it it brings some really interesting options to the table Cool very good. I'm not sure I'm sold on it, but that's okay. All right skitter strand of rack and rock Uh He's 200 points He can do the ambush from beyond that we talked about earlier and take other units with him And then I didn't this up action.  I noticed that it's great It's just him. It's that guy It's what you think it is he does what you think it does The big difference with this dude and it is a big change. This is how his drunken stagger works He had the dumbest rule in the game before because if you roll doubles in the charge You basically fell over and couldn't attack or couldn't charge Now instead he just gets free 18 inch charge Uh rolling 3d6 on that charge basically and you can declare from 18 inches away And you only fall over and do bad things on a trip roll um Which you could re-roll if you wanted to with the command point Sure and like the statistical difference between getting doubles and getting triples is so wildly different Okay It is insane Um, so Uh You know, but he's still here.  Um, because you know, it's Legacy some things are just legacy the giant was the classically part of this army. And so he still is This is this is their nod to the history of the thing Um, assistant ref can the skitter strand go back into reserves till turn five Don't know FAQ question because the skitter strand can be put into reserve attack and then go back into reserve Um, but the trick is if he's in reserve like by the normal rules He cannot use that ability anymore after round three because any unit in reserve at the top of four is destroyed Okay, but if he's in play At the top of four And then goes into reserve after that the destroy trigger happens at the top of four not at any point later, right? But then theoretically you can't you can't put him into ambush at the bottom of three and then put him back out at the top of four Right. No, no, but you'd fight And or you'd like go into ambush like let's The answer is it's a It's the the answer is by the way, it's an FAQ question. Yeah, sure Yeah, but that is a super great utility though to be able to go in To attack and then at the end of the combat phase just pull them out And then ambush in again Yeah, right I think that's a super nice ability that the rest of the spider fang don't have and it adds even more utility Um, so you could ambush in and then put the you know Erector rock with the spider party or the flinger exactly where you want to and then At the end of the combat phase you can see this it doesn't say you have to be in combat You can just pull them out and ambush them in again Yeah So he functionally is just a foot of gork For spiders for free with no casting cost and you can take as many as you want Well, when you drop him uh each time he has to deploy outside nine So it's still going to be a long bomb charge. So he won't reliably get in everything But um, I I think that he he certainly does have you Uh, no jeremy Um, yeah, and then the three spells. I'll just talk about them. Um, just very quickly They don't have slides for them four The four spells. Sorry. Yes, correct Um morex mighty mushroom. It's pretty good Does a lot of mortal wounds in an area when you set it up. It's cool. There you go And it's got a decent enough range on 66 inches The arachnid cauldron does what the arachnid cauldron does it joins to a model and gives them Uh an additional spell and lower access and stuff Uh, and you know people have to die or it gets hurt The scuttle tide can still pop out from terrain and does some decent mortal wounds Um, that's the cool part about it is that it doesn't have to set up near the caster It can set up within eight inches of a terrain feature visible to the caster So it's got just incredible board presence as to what it can do around and it can still Then affect an area of the board because if they run retreat or charge around it, they take more mortal wounds Um, so that's cool. It's also by the way very very hard to dispel if it happens to be near any arachnid rocks It only dispels on a nine plus, which is a fun new ability. That is super fun Yeah, and then the malevolent moon what's notable about the malevolent moon Uh, was that it uh, it has a very long range being a 12 inch base and 12 inch predatory move and Uh, you roll a dice for each unit within After it moves you roll a dice for each unit within three inches of it on a two up It's d three mortal wounds gloom spite aren't affected by this ability And while this endless spell is controlled by a model of gloom spite gets army gloom spite gets units in the same army Are affected by the light of the bad moon while they're wholly within 12. So it is yet another potential Uh bad option. Yep Um, but it's cool. It's a super long range actual potentially decent uh area damage spell That also cast the moon way across the board. Um, I really like the malevolent moon because I like its its range I value um Sort of going being able to go downtown with endless spells quite a lot Um, the moon is 80 points the mighty mushrooms 100 points the arachnic cauldron is 50 and the scuttle tide is 85 So there you go. All right quick summary and let's close this out Because it is late We've been going a while folks Well, I mean that's gets one of these gets amazing. There's a lot. There's a lot to talk about All right quick summary for me much more versatile book A lot of different combinations some real standout units Some very cheap heroes who can have a real impact on the battlefield despite their diminutive nature Battle shock is much more of a concern now Um protecting the terrain piece is still very important though because it does a lot in regening a lot of different units Potentially a lot of a lot of different units Um, I don't like some of these rules. I think they're out of place. They have a cool idea It just doesn't fit the gets The third rail of touching the objective capture thing scares the living crap out of me But overall this book is absolutely great. Like I really do think so like I took I take issue with a few small things I think the spiders are still a little underserved Um But they're better like they are better don't get me wrong And I think that there's a lot more potential here for some fun mixed armies To play the units you want and to make a lot of really fun armies I do think there will be some opportunity costs and choices in what exactly you're you're how much you're putting into buffs into Units and so on and so forth and I think it will respond to a skilled play really well There you go Tom any final thoughts from you and then we're gonna let paul close it out I mean I may have put in an order today for all the get stuff including a school lunch battle force I think that says everything paul your final thoughts I already own the school lunch battle force Probably be buying it But it it just it does all the things it does all the things that you think that it should do And it does it well It has asks you to make some really hard choices And I think that's also a sign of a very good book And I have all four of these forces and I feel like I could run them individually And I would have fun and I could run them all together and I would have fun. So fantastic Yeah, I mean another another Another example of this was I was one of the first raffle folks at holy wars Like my my first ticket that got pulled and the first thing that I grabbed was the getting started gets box So it's a good one like trolls and squiggard. Yeah, I'm in yeah But Overall good stuff. I expect we'll see some points moving around here or there I think there's a few things that are undercosted a few things that are a little overcosted But that's always that's always life, you know points always get refined over time That's like the least problematic thing who really cares like that'll just get dialed in over time So that's that's not a problem. I think the foundation is here is good. We got good bones We got a good book. It's a day for celebration and happiness For gets all around like if you've been a long-term believer or if you're just gets curious Now is the time. That's all right. There's no gatekeeping here Even if you're a recent convert to bad moon welcomes all and I think this is a this is a good book I'm happy with it. It continues the trend of really solid Uh, three inch books So Or 3.0. Sorry three inch three three three three inch books. What that thick? No, it's not that thick Sorry, I'll 3.0 books. Sorry hilarious All right. Anyways, thank you so much everybody. Don't forget to hit like don't forget to subscribe Do all those things The road to 100,000 is so close. We can just taste it Not that it really matters in the end. It's just some weird number But youtube seems to care about that sort of thing. So there you go. So we will too But thank you paul so much for being here, buddy. It was a great time Uh, thank you all for watching. Uh, if you've got any thoughts about anything we talked about drop it down in the comments below Uh, hit all those buttons. Don't forget if you want to support the show. There's a patreon down there you can Uh, chuck in a few bucks for that. It's focused on hobby and taking your next step on your personal hobby journey and review and feedback Uh, as always though, thank you so much for watching this one. We really appreciate it. And as always We'll see you next wednesday


He should be now as a young nigga who done who I'm saluting I'm saluting you but you want to throw you want to Try to stump on me, but I'm a giant like I'm what that and that's the that's the difference between Dallas Now he's a North Alderton nigga. That's what he told me now I don't know nobody from North Alderman, but they ain't like that.  They are the ones who pretty much he do it Both of them have that that they the ones these are the ones that now say cheese too busy putting out Charleston And what Charleston doing? He ain't trying to break nobody Man knows he can get Charleston the talk on some current event and go wow and break that boy That's all he worried about he ain't trying to put don't nobody to see you so constant you got record labels talking Why are they talking about Charleston and not about no artists my nigga? You come by Dev job regular label want to talk to Charleston about some entertainment.  Yeah Now you go tell him the echo fool so you can get them numb You want him to you know, you know, you want the Charleston white, you know I'm saying so He's not trying to break nobody, but you so-called got the avenue to the to New York the labels You ain't trying to break no music my guy You know when when you look at the things that that we do have the capability of doing You know like even when when Charleston was over I never forget the time You know, we went spoke at the at the deal me my wife and all us and and when the kids will get out We we did we gave kids clothes right out of here Right, what was he there? Did he post that who say no, no just me and Charleston did this and you can go back and look the episodes up The thing that that was the part of it that that I enjoyed to be honest with you Not only that with it just basically we did talk about a lot of other stuff to do with it It's because it's sauce, but at the end of the day we did do some real thing with those kids I know that for a fact and and I don't regret it one day, you know what I'm saying But that's what it's all about you right You know I'm saying and the music the music aspect of it is what what put what's putting these Now I'm a Pmc fanatic I talk about Pmc so much just the way that he was and his legacy and and and what it did his music done for me You know what I'm saying because that was my error right right, you know And when I see certain times and people look his kids look at this or whoever I want to be able to look and say hey man He doing you know he telling the stories and the bobo's come on here and all that Just trying to make sure that the story being told right but I'm a fan of his just like I'm a fan of yours That's what you saying the story. Yeah, like how can a person be mad at me for trying to tell my story your story heavy, too Like that's what's wrong. Like the young niggas want to sweep out of the ship of form up under like it never happened Like it never was like you should be honored to talk about a nigga like me. No, I definitely I definitely enjoy it No, he should be now as a young nigga who done who I'm saluting I'm saluting you but you want to throw you want to Try to stomp on me, but I'm a giant like I'm what that and that's the that's the difference between Dallas Now he's a North Arlington nigga. That's what he told me now I don't know nobody from North Alden, but they ain't like that.   I salute you.


I'd like to welcome everybody to this month's agricultural market situation outlook webinar, which is continuing on now in 2022. We have a series of presentations as usual with questions saved for the end. We actually do have a special guest this month who has a little information and request for you. And so we'll start with that. So Professor Cheryl Wachenheim, the floor is yours. Well, excellent. Thank you so much. So I appreciate a couple of minutes today to introduce a short survey. Let me turn this other one off. So my name is Cheryl Wachenheim, and I don't have a camera on this computer, but I'm as beautiful, much more beautiful than my picture as well. So what I want to talk to you, I want to solicit your participation in a survey that essentially tries to figure out what farmers, ranchers, and service providers, as many of you are, what they prefer happen to data that is sent to ag tech and management providers, the data generated from precision agricultural operations. Once it's set up, sent up, what happens to the data? And we know there's detailed privacy policies and data license agreements and so on. And we're not always really familiar with them. But we want to know what what farmer, ranchers and service providers think those contracts should look like. And the question is why? And other than it being super interesting, interesting to know, it'll help us develop educational materials and as well as input towards contracts standardization. And it'll help facilitate identification of service providers that are providing data management contracts that appeal to farmer, ranchers and service providers as well. So there's already a movement in the lot of ag organizations are involved in called the ag data transparent. And their objective is provide certification for handle firms that handle the data like we'd like. So if you could go to the next slide, there's a, well, actually, I'll stick here. There's the survey code. If you could just go there, it take about 10 minutes. But it's a fun survey. I think you'd enjoy it a lot. So if you go to the next page real quick. All right. So one thing that this survey makes it a little bit unique is it has what they call a choice experiment in it. And essentially, you answer regular questions as you would in any survey. And then the second half is designed to ascertain what what people value in a contract. And we're essentially looking at four attributes. And one attributes is whether or not the farmer is getting paid to provide that data. However, the service provider is using. The second is what happens to the data once the data goes up to the service provider. For example, can the company that has the data that's managing the data and providing you that service share that data with others. And the third is whether you retain ownership of that data. In other words, if a farmer changes service providers or stops using a service provider, does that data go with them? Or is it retained by the service provider? And then, of course, ease of use is essentially how the data is moved from the machinery of equipment to the service provider. So we essentially ask you to look at two contracts and they differ by those four attributes. And doing that a series of time will provide us a lot of data, a lot of valuable data about what people value. So that's a lot of words. But essentially, I'd love it if you took a survey. And I think it'd be it'd be a lot of considerable value to the industry. And I'm working on this project with Eric Hansen. So my email wasn't the initial part, but you can also get it from the fellows. If you have any questions, if you don't have any, if you have any questions right now, please ask. Otherwise, feel free to email me. That's all I got. Great. Thanks, Cheryl. And if it's okay with you, I'll send the URL to all the attendees today. That'd be great. So I really appreciate it.  Thank you. Moving now on to the regular part of the program. Dr. Brian Parman talking about fertilizer prices. Thank you, Dave. So this has been being covered quite a bit, a lot of information in the in the newspapers and trade journals and everything else that have come out. I spent, I did several presentations on this exact topic over the last couple of weeks and spent several minutes doing a podcast yesterday on fertilizer prices. So my first slide shows the DTN tract price of nitrogen based fertilizers, which is in dollars per pound of N. Okay. And so obviously something like anhydrous ammonia has more pounds of N in it per ton than a product like 28 or 32. So those those products nominally will be cheaper than anhydrous, but anhydrous still is is is the the cheapest price per pound of nitrogen. And what you see from the chart, and this one was from last week, week ending last week is that for the most part, most of these fertilizer products, the nitrogen products have have essentially doubled in price, price per pound. And for instance, anhydrous around this time last year was about 30 cents per pound. And now it's a little bit north of 90 cents. Urea, the product that was predominantly used in North Dakota, was around 40 cents a pound of N this time last year. And now it's it's it's more than double that it's around a dollar and 28 and 32 have increased about the same amount as well. So my next slide shows potash prices and in potash, obviously an important nutrient that we apply quite a bit. And it if you look at this chart here, the way to read it, that dotted line at the bottom, that's the the five year average. The purple line is 2020. The green line is 2021. You can see all through 2021, the the price of potash pretty much does a straight shot trend upwards. And it was around right around $375 a ton or so to start the year approaching $400 a ton by this time last year that that'd be early February. And now it's it's over $800 a ton. One thing to note about potash, though, is it's it's leveled off some over the last month. It's kind of the first month that it's had that where it wasn't wasn't increasing week over week. It seemed like every every day or every other day, you'd go check the prices and they would be higher and and potash prices, at least for the over the course of the last month have have leveled off. My next slide shows your phosphorus prices, the the two major phosphorus products that are put on map and DAP. And they're up over 80% from where they were about a year ago. You got map at about $920 a ton nationally and DAP closer to 880 nationally. And those two products for the most part have have leveled off as well. You can see the red line up in the upper left corner. That's the that's the month of January for this year, and the data that we have for this year. And so it's it's leveled off compared to a year ago, which in this chart reads like the last couple where you've got that five year average, which is the gray dotted line. And it was the green line is 2021 for both products, pretty much just steady march upward for for the entire year of last year, and basically leveled off. And so, you know, we I'm not saying that they're not going to we're not going to go back and look at the end of this week and see that they've moved upwards. But it so far there there's been a kind of a mute they they've muted the upward upward marcher prices of these two products as well as potash. Then my next slide shows urea prices, that being the predominant nitrogen product applied here in North Dakota, and it it too has leveled off now it's leveled off again at a very high number $920 a ton, which is more than double of what it what it was this time last year. But but there again, we haven't moved up at all since the since the start of the year, which is kind of the first time since September, October that that's been true, that it hasn't increased in price dramatically. But one thing that remains to be seen when fertilizer starts being applied heavily here in the next month or so, where you were the where the the delta area and across, you know, the south starts getting into the fields and starts applying these products as planning season kicks off for them in late February early March. And then as the as the as it starts getting warmer and planning season begins in earnest for places like Kansas and Nebraska and Iowa and and and and onward. Typically that's when we see fertilizer prices in a normal year increase, where they're the the lowest that they'll typically be in the fall, and then increasing as we move into spring planning and demand really picks up. But this is not a typical year. So I'm pretty reluctant to predict that we're going to see the same increase in fertilizer prices, considering how high they already are. There's a lot of other factors at play that could could impact it. My impression has been, though, that we're not going to see much of a movement down until after planning season is over. So probably right now, as I see it, our best case scenario is is that they do not march upwards anymore. And we just kind of move sideways through the planning season at the prices that we're at right now. Now, my next slide shows one final fertilizer product, 1034. And it's also up as well. A lot of nitrogen, not a little bit of nitrogen in this in this product. But what you see there is starting this year or last year, around $470 a ton, and now closer to $820 a ton. And it's it's it's way over the the five-year average as well. And one last thing I wanted to mention, I've been looking at chemical prices for a lot of these products as well, or the herbicides and pesticides that are typically applied. And kind of that's one thing that it's been talked about, but it hasn't been talked about as much. And a couple of things I have note, and I don't have a slide on it, was about this time last year, Glufosinate products, like Liberty or the generics, they were around $70 a gallon around this time last year. Glufosinate now about $122 a gallon for name brand, and about $116 a gallon for generic. So up quite a bit.  Some areas are seeing it as high as $74 a gallon right now. So a big increase in Glufosate, and then products like 240 good old 240 selling for 36 bucks a gallon right now. That product's obviously been around for nearly 100 years now. So it's not just fertilizer prices, it's herbicides and pesticides. And I know Ron Haugen, who worked hard to get our crop budgets put together, is going to do a presentation on those and talk about overall production costs and how they're impacted this year. But that's something to think about. And Franal might hit on it as well. This year is absolutely a year where soil testing is important. There's no real way to know how much residual fertilizer is left after the drought that we dealt with last year, since we in a lot of areas didn't get the yields and didn't get the rain. So a lot of that fertilizer is still sitting in the ground or a good bit of it. How much is impossible really to know unless you go out and do soil testing. And soil testing will probably pay for itself this year. That's the first thing. And the second thing is it's going to be awfully tough if we spend what we're going to have to spend to make a crop this year. And we don't protect ourselves with the ability to use the market to hedge this year. And so that's kind of the story that we're all telling. And so I believe a question popped up, but I think we're going to do those to the end. Yes, I guess there was a comment real quick. You re-quote locally this week or down to 750 to $780 a ton range. Well, that's good. And these were national numbers. That's one thing that's important. And Hydrus was really peaking. There were reports of $1,600 a ton. And then you'd look in a place like Iowa and it'd be $1,350, $1,400 a ton, especially if it was kind of really near a plant. So yes, you're right. They can be down. And that actually brings up a really good point. And one of the things that a lot of our co-ops and other areas were afraid of is if they're out there buying, let's say, Urea for $800, $850 a ton and then all the sudden prices come down to $750 a ton. How much do they have on hand and are they left holding the bag with high price fertilizer? It's a dangerous situation financially for some, especially the smaller cooperatives and stuff. So as high as fertilizer prices were to end last week, they've been volatile. And I'm not surprised at all if the local quotes are down to $750 a ton right now. It's very possible considering how high they were. And it doesn't take a huge percentage change to come down $100 when you're starting at $1,000 or $950. So that's a great comment. And on supply issues for fertilizer in the spring, I guess I'll go ahead and hit that real quick. Yes, I think that there probably will be, if not for any other reason, then there may be some folks who are reluctant to price fertilizer when the price was high and cooperatives are not going to buy a bunch of high price fertilizer and have it sitting there on hand because of fears that the price could fall. And if that if something like that happens, again, that could absolutely cause a financial, a real big financial hardship for those cooperatives. So there may be some logistical issues and supply issues with these entities, the agrochemical dealers having it on hand. So I am worried about that. That's absolutely true. But thank you, everyone. And if there are any further questions, I'll try to answer them at the end. And I'd like to turn it over to Dr. Olson. Thank you. All right. Thank you, Brian. So I'm Frank Olson. I'm the crop economist and marketing specialist with NDSU Extension. Here's my contact information. So again, as we finish things up, if you do have some questions that come up later, feel free to contact me. I'll do my best to try and answer them. So the other thing I want to mention as I start, I'm actually speaking in my not today. I'm broadcasting for my not right now. I'll be joining a conference here in town shortly. So I'm going to be giving my talk and hopefully we'll have a couple minutes for Q&A. And then I'm going to have to drop off the call to be able to get ready for my next presentation. So just you're aware, think of some questions now as I'm going through my discussion. So on my first slide, I wanted to give you an update on kind of the summary of the information we got from the WASDE report yesterday. So the WASDE is the World Agricultural Supply Demand Estimates. USDA updates that information once a month. So on the very top highlighted in blue is the average industry estimate for what they were expecting USDA to come out with. So that was the numbers that the average industry analyst was looking for to come out of the report yesterday. Now this is for ending stocks. So this would be again, just a summary of both the supply and the demand areas. So how much grain are we going to have in reserve just before harvest of 2022? The bottom row highlighted in red is the numbers that actually were reported in the WASDE. And then the highlighted black number just above that is the number that was reported last month. So just to remind everybody, the markets already had have anticipated some changes. So the critical thing for when the report is released is not necessarily what was the number from last month, but more importantly, what is the number the trade is expecting to see. So what we really need to do is compare the blue row with the red row. So when you compare on wheat, the ending stocks and wheat was a little bit higher than what the trade was expecting. Actually, they were looking at very small changes. USDA did drop both domestic consumption and exports a slight amount. So there was kind of two small adjustments there on the corn side basically left untouched from last year, last month's estimate. So corning and ending stocks did not change. The trade was expecting a little bit of an increase or uptick in ethanol consumption, but that didn't appear in this month's report. On the soybean column, they were expecting to have a slight cutback in the ending stocks, basically an increase in demand. USDA did increase the amount of soybeans going into the crushing sector, a small amount. That's where that's where the change came in. I think most analysts were expecting a slight adjustment in the exports number, which did not come.  The February report is typically not one of those big shock value kinds of reports that we get. On the next slide is a summary of USDA's forecast for South American production. We're going to look both at corn and soybeans in both Argentina and Brazil. And really these were the numbers that I think everybody was anticipating to see what would happen from USDA's perspective on total production numbers. We know that there's been some drought in Argentina that's been going on most of the season. We know that there has been some pretty severe drought conditions in southern Brazil. However, northern Brazil has had some very good weather and yields coming off of the northern harvested soybeans have been very, very strong so far. But soybean harvest is now getting into the central and southern part of Brazil. And we're getting some better information from harvest reports that, yeah, that crop isn't nearly as big as what we had expected. So once again, comparing the top row highlighted in blue with the bottom row highlighted in red, again, small adjustments and not major changes. We were not expecting big shifts, but we got kind of what the trade was expecting. Now on the next slide, I want to compare not only US soybean production to Brazilian soybean production, but also talk a little bit about the differences between what the private forecasts are saying for yields coming out of Brazil versus how USDA makes those calculations. So the very top row, this last year in the US, we had a record soybean crop. This is reported in million metric ton, which is kind of what we use in the international trade sector. So just for reference point, our US record soybean production was about 121 million metric ton. If you look at the highlighted black line in Brazil last year, Brazil produced 138 million metric ton. That was their total crop size. That was a new record. Now, when we were finishing up our harvest and they're planting soybeans down in Brazil, most of the private forecasters for production and yields were looking at an increase in output between 140 to 145. So that was kind of the mentality as we were finishing our harvest here in the US, and they were planting soybeans in Brazil. Now the current USDA forecast, as you saw earlier, was 134 million metric ton. Most of the current private forecasters, when they look at what are their own estimates, are saying anywhere between 125 and 130, which is again, a bit lower than what USDA is forecasting. And this morning, actually late yesterday, Conab, which is kind of Brazil's version of USDA, came out with an updated forecast. This is kind of the official government forecast of about 125.5 million metric ton. So why is the USDA forecast a little bit higher? It's when USDA does their forecasting, they're looking at current cropping conditions or getting as much harvest information as they can. But what they're assuming and they're modeling and they're forecasting for final numbers is that the weather is averaged from this time forward. So the assumption is that whatever their benchmark, the date that they do their forecast on, the assumption is the weather will be returned to normal or returned to average for the rest of the growing season. Well, obviously, if you're in the middle of a drought, a lot of the private forecasters are assuming that those drought conditions will continue and may even worsen. So that's one of the reasons we see this difference in the two numbers. And then also when Conab came out, the Brazilian version of USDA, they also dropped their forecast for total corn production. So these two reasons are as part of the driving force kind of updraft we have now in both the corn and the soybean markets over the last several weeks, actually. The other thing that there was been over the last about a week to 10 days, almost two weeks now, because of these lower forecasted numbers, we've seen some Chinese buying return into the US market. So China is now returning to the US market and buying some soybeans not only from old crop for immediate delivery, but also for new crop. And so this is kind of an unusual time for the Chinese to come in and start buying US soybeans. Normally they're buying almost all of their product out of the Brazilian market. So this too is also giving psychologically some boost to both corn and soybean prices. So on my next slide, I'd want to also talk a little bit about what's happening between Russia and Ukraine and the potential impact on wheat. Now, we don't have time to go into a lot of detail, but I do want to give you a quick geography lesson. So what I've tried to do here is zoom in on the key export facilities in both Russia and the Ukraine. So the blue stars are the major grain exporting terminals out of Russia. Notice that there's the Sea of Azov and then they have the Black Sea. So they've got a couple ports right along the Black Sea and then one up in the Sea of Azov. So the blue stars are Russian export facilities for grain. The red stars are Ukrainian export facilities. And then that black star down on the very bottom in that peninsula of Crimea is one of the large Russian naval bases. And so you can see that with the political tensions as well as some of the military tensions growing between the Russian Ukrainians that this has a very high likelihood that we're going to spill over into potential grain movements as well. So on the next slide, this was actually a quote that came out this morning. This is from Reuters News that came out early this morning. And I'll just read it really quickly. Ukraine criticized Russian naval exercises near its southern coast on Thursday, saying the presence of warships are part of the hybrid war that had been that made navigation in the Black Sea and Azov Sea virtually impossible. So because of these these military drills, the military actions that are going on again, Russia has announced they're going to have these drills for keeping their soldiers at high levels. It's now spilling over or potentially spilling over into some of the grain shipments coming out of your crane in particular. So the second quote directly from that report was that Moscow is staging these naval drills in the Black Sea this month. And at the same time it holds the ground drills. Again, we've been listening to that on the news between in Belarus, which is just north of the Ukraine. Part of the Shoah force for the West says could be precursor to an invasion which Moscow denies. So again, these political issues are starting to escalate. It does have a significant possibility or potential to be able to restrict the flow of not only wheat because Russia is the largest wheat exporter and Ukraine is the third largest wheat exporter in the global markets right now, but also potentially restrict grain corn exports because Ukraine is the fourth largest corn exporter. So this is all now starting to be built into the marketplace. Some of these uncertainties are starting to also provide a bit of an updraft in particular in the corn market. My next slide is just I'm going to zoom back out a little bit to give you another perspective of what's going on on the right hand side is Russia and the left hand side would be Ukraine. I put a little if you notice a little red bar on the very bottom. There's a canal that runs through the middle of Istanbul. It's a large city in Turkey. That canal is really the only way that vessels ocean vessels can get between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea. So again, another potential choke point from a military standpoint is to try and just block off that canal which then would restrict not only grain shipments but also potentially crude oil shipments and and LNG or liquefied natural gas shipments. So again, these tensions growing can have spillover effects in a lot of other industries and a lot of other markets. So my last slide, kind of a question I've been getting more recently is, so will this impact U.S. winter wheat? So the classes of wheat, the type of wheat that Ukraine and Russia export, it would be classified as a hard red winter wheat in our system. So will this have an impact on U.S. hard red winter wheat prices? Will that cause an updraft in the wheat market thus allowing spring wheat to go higher as well? And the question is really unclear. I think it's going to take a pretty large disruption for U.S. hard red winter wheat prices to really be impacted in a dramatic way. And this is a price chart. This is a price forward chart. So this would be like your local elevator putting bids for delivery in the future. So if they're going to buy grain from you several months into the future, what are their current bids and prices? So what I did was I gathered the information for the prices loaded on for wheat loaded onto an ocean vessel and then the freight rates, the ocean freight from that particular port to North Asia. So think about like Japan or South Korea, potentially China. So just to give you an idea of what the different bids are and the different prices. So if you're in North Asia, like a Japanese buyer, you're saying, well, if I want to buy hard red winter wheat off the global market, what kind of prices might I be looking at at different period delivery periods? So this is from March of 2022, all the way through November of 2022. The brown line on the very bottom is Ukrainian 11.5 protein wheat. The red line is Russia 11.5 protein wheat. Of course, their ports are very close to each other. So the prices are going to be very similar. Now the US Gulf, about 11% protein wheat is the green line on top. So right now, one of the challenges we're having in the wheat market is because corn prices are so high, US wheat prices have to be even higher to be able to prevent the wheat from going into the feed supplies. So right now, today in the global market, our hard red winter wheat is priced kind of at a high level relative to some other major suppliers, like Argentina and Australia and of course the Black Sea. So if the exports get cut off from the Black Sea region, Ukraine and Russia, if they kind of have to back away from the marketplace for a while, global wheat prices will increase. The question is will they increase enough to make US hard red winter wheat competitive in the global markets? I do think we'll see a pretty substantial increase, but it may not directly translate into a lot of additional US hard red winter wheat exports. So I just want everybody to be cautious. I do think we'll pick up some additional sales, but it may not be the larger volumes that I think some people are hoping for or counting on. So with that, I'll take a short pause. If there's any questions, I'll try and answer them now and then I'll let Tim get set up for his portion of the discussion. Frank, I'll ask a quick question maybe a little bit early, but your thoughts about plantings. I'm wondering about how many soybean acres are going to get planted this year relative to corn. Yeah, and again, when you look at, and we got to separate kind of old crop pricing from new crop pricing, when you look at what's happening in the new crop markets right now, again, a very nice heavy lift, an updraft is what I call it, an increase in November soybean futures, which then is also causing some increase in the December corn futures. So I do think it nationally, we need to have about the same kind of balance between corn and soybean acres as we did last year. We can see a little bit of a shifting, a slight reduction in corn, a slight increase in soybeans, but we can't let soybeans get too out of balance relative to corn because we still have some very strong demand base for corn. Now, so far wheat has been kind of lagging behind. It hasn't been caught up in this competition or bidding for acres quite yet, but I do think in particular for hard red spring wheat, because it's spring planted, that will join the mix here pretty shortly. So if you're looking at spring wheat pricing, I do think we'll see some lifting, some improvement in spring wheat futures markets as we get closer to spring planting to be a bit more competitive with some of the other crops. So in the corn belt, I don't expect to see big shifts between corn and soybeans, but the shifting for acres or the bidding for acres kind of this acreage battle is really up here in the northern plains in North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, because we grow all of these other smaller market crops that can suddenly make the acreage shift more important. So a long winded answer to a relatively short question. Good afternoon, Tim Petra here, Extension Livestock Marketing Economist. If we go to my first slide, USDA NASS in the last month has issued the three annual inventory reports for cattle sheep and hogs. So I'm just going to summarize those in a quick review of they all showed lower numbers, which obviously is supportive to prices. So first of all, let's go to the beef cow side of it in the cattle and I don't have time, you know, I could spend an hour just on the entire cattle report. We're just going to do beef cows because that's what gives us beef production on the top is January 1 beef cows. And then for the commodities, I'm going to say how North Dakota might compare because we differed in many respects in the commodity. So on the cattle, beef cattle side up there, you see in the upper chart to the right hand side, we beef cow numbers as expected declined again, about 2.3%. And again, right now, drought monitor came out this morning, but half the beef cow herd is an area of drought. And so that's why we thought numbers would go down. It's the third straight year of declining beef cow numbers cyclically. And usually we do decline in a cycle, a liquidation phase is usually four years. So our expectation probably in some others on that too, but as dry as it is. And we'll see in a little while some other things that we may, you know, prices are high enough now that would probably stimulate some increase in numbers. But it looks like there is a good chance that they will go down again. But anyway, that's positive for prices. Our calf crop is going to be lower this year. And so again, supportive to prices. North Dakota then, similar in the last couple of years, we did buck the trend numbers actually declined there in 2019. And 20 and then 21. And it's up in the US, but only the last two years in North Dakota. We did fall off 2% again this year. And that was expected with the drought that we're experiencing. And not quite as much as the US, but with similar. So a decline there as well. So we'll have fewer calves in North Dakota. So if we go to the next slide, just on the top then is the January 1 beef cow replacement heifers saved. And so you see, we're down there again, about a little over 3%, 3.3% to start January. So that's maybe funnels into again, that we'll take the beef cow herd down a little bit for the fourth straight years. And again, weather is going to be the big factor there. Again, half the beef cow herd in and drought. We kind of buck the trend some here in North Dakota on replacement heifers. We've been keeping a lot of replacement heifers in North Dakota. You see those. We did go down about 4% on replacement heifers here in North Dakota over last year. But still, on a historic basis, we have a lot, we've been saving a lot of replacement heifers in North Dakota. It's been a good enterprise for people. And we have the highest quality heifers in the U.S. and they're in high demand. And heifers are extremely discounted in the fall. And even now, the lighter weight heifers $30 a hundred weight and so on. So we background them, keep them in the spring, then they can go to a feedlot. And actually, you see, we started off this year now, the eighth all-time high, number eighth place in replacement heifers. And last year, we were in sixth place all the way back to 1920. In fact, five out of the last six years have been in the top 10 for number of replacement heifers held. And so, but those six, that number sixth place that we had at the beginning last year, again, a lot of those that weren't, that hadn't been bred, these are replacement heifers that are really two crops. It's the replacement heifers that haven't calved, that are going to start calving here sooner, calve after January 1st anyway. And it's also the heifer calves save back that were designated as replacement heifers. But again, last year, some of those went to feedlots. And so, when we go to the next slide, I'm just going to, I'm sure I've been having meetings all over the state here since the report came out on January 31st. And the question that I always get is, why didn't beef cows go down more than that? And if you've been listening to my webinars all last summer, I said, yeah, we're going to have a lower numbers in North Dakota, but you know, people were saying there's going to be 30% down, 40% down or whatever. And I disagreed with that. I said we might be down from two to four percent would be my guess. And, and I'm going to show you why that I use that estimate and why beef cow numbers were just down 2%. Cattle producers, beef cow producers in the Northern Plains in particular, but probably all over the US are very resilient and do whatever's necessary to maintain herds and, and, and, and fine feed and, and do all sorts of things. And so I, the top chart there, that purple line admonitizes our state climatologist and the drought monitor first came out in 2000. So he's, he's got a formula for the intensity of drought. And, you know, since the drought monitor started in 2000. And so those numbers way on the top then show the drought intensity and how bad the drought was. And of course, our drought this past year in 2021 was the worst drought since 2000. But if we, but then right in the middle, you see those numbers there and you see some purple circles there. That is the percentage change in the beef cow herd, the January 1st after the drought occurred. And those numbers then the, the, the, the, the absolute numbers are on the chart below that you've seen before of the change in numbers, but I'm looking at percent. So if we go back and look at the second worst drought, which was back in 2006, January 1st of 2007, we had the same amount of, of, of cows go back to towards the right hand side.  We actually had 1% more beef cows than we had even though it was a drought. Then go back to the left hand side. Yeah, the fourth drought there in 2008, we did go down a 3.2%. Probably the changes in beef cow numbers are more because of prices relative rather than drought is what this bears out. But anyway, we had more there. It also might be a result that we had very dry in 2006, right in the middle of 2007, it did get better, but then got worse right away and then dry in 2008. So, you know, we had almost 2.5 years there and that funneled into it. And then we go to the fifth worst drought there in 2012, we actually had 7% more beef cows. So that's, you know, where I was getting my prediction that, that we were not going to be down major double ditch categories like people expected. Now, on the other hand, let's go to the right hand side of the chart and, you know, drought conditions persist. There's no snow in West River. It's dry. Our pastures are beat down and we're going to need a lot of rain. So certainly we hope it rains in, in the southeastern, south central part of North Dakota. It did get some refreshing last fall, but we're going to need rain. And if that doesn't happen, we are going to have more liquidation than we had this year, but we certainly hope it rains. So move along then to the next slide and just show you how lower numbers then are impacting prices on the top. Then there's our 800 pound yearlings. I usually do show you this. And you see that red line there starting at the, at the left hand side of the chart is higher than the last three years by quite a bit. And then those red squares are the futures market closes today.  And then in the fall up there close just under 191.88 or so. And then that gold square then is the January 2023 futures are showing even higher prices because of those lower calf crops we expect. And then on the bottom are the lighter weight 550 to six weight calves. And the same thing there, you know, last a couple of several years, last three years, we average about 170 at this time. And last week we averaged 195 and expectations like those feeder cattle futures show them. And we're up there 190 to 200 by this fall quite a bit better. So those are, you know, we've got good demand for beef on the fed cattle site. So fed cattle prices are higher in futures and then our lower supply. So moving to the next slide, then we'll just talk a little bit about sheep. The US number of breeding use has been pretty constant at about three million head for a number of years, but did fall off 1.7 this year, two thirds of our since most of our sheep are in Western US and the entire Western US now is dry. U numbers did go down 1.7% all due to drought with the prices that sheep or the lambs are now, we would have expected them to maybe the numbers to go up a little bit, but the drought limited that. Then North Dakota on the bottom, again, we kind of bucked the trend there. We had no, even in spite of our drought, we had no change in breeding U numbers this year over last year. And then, you know, we've seen a resurgence in increasing U numbers the previous two years and that we were up pretty strong there in 2019 to 20. And then 14% and then another 5% a year ago and then leveled off. So anyway, the US of lamb crop is going to be down a little and so go to the next slide is supporting prices and we have, you know, a very good demand for lamb and lower numbers. So there's the purple line then is the average of 2016 to 20. But again, last year, after we got the pandemic, some of it behind us and restaurants started open up again. And so on, we brought lamb prices up and they're already, you know, they're 235 on fed lambs versus about 175 a year ago. So a lot better lamb prices there and our expectation to continue and then the same on the feeder lambs below. So let's go on to the next and talk a little bit about hogs. The inventory on the cattle and sheep was as of January 1. But the USDA does it a month earlier on hogs. So this is of December 1. So the year is 2021. But actually it'd be the start of 2022 numbers. So you see there are breeding herd did fall off in 2020. You see in a minute with prices 2020 was just a terrible year for hog prices because of the pandemic. And we do reduce our herd down and it's the breeding herd is still kind of historically low now on on December 1. So down in the bottom chart, you see on December 1, we had fewer market hogs in the year before. That's going back to those December 2020 hog sows that we had the year before up in the top chart. And we've got the same number. So we'll be down there on market hogs again. So go to while you're going to the next chart, I will mention again that North Dakota did buck the trend. And actually we have 6% more market hogs on December 1 in North Dakota when the US was down about 4%. So we're going to have more hogs to sell at higher prices, which is good news for North Dakota. So the top chart is base slaughter hog prices at the packing plants. You see the purple line there in the bottom again $50 carcass weed hogs in 2020 is what caused us to cut back on sows. Then last year the blue line we saw a significant increase in prices up to mid-year up to $112. And then the seasonal pattern for hogs is for them to go up into July and then down into the fall. And so now we're starting off above last year up there about $83 now compared to 70 last year. And the red diamonds there are what the futures market today is saying back up by July up to $114 there in July, $110 and so on in August and in there in July and so pretty much following last year except a little bit higher. And of course then on the bottom that causes feeder pig prices to be in demand too. We've got fewer of them and they're looking at those $114 slaughter hog prices in July that these feeder pigs finish out on. So like I said all the sectors look very positive in prices with the lower numbers and also the strong demand. So with that this wrap up and say you know a reminder that Valentine's Day is coming up here in case you forgot on Monday so keep that on your calendar and you know a good present might be steak or pork chops or lamb chops and with that then let's go to is it Ron or Dave next? It's me Tim. Yeah, good afternoon Ron Hogan with farm management. There's my contact information. So I'm going to talk a little bit about the NDSU crop budgets that we just released. So the first slide basically just says I wrote a news article the other day and that's the headline in NDSU projects crop profits. And so these were very frustrating this year with a big run up in the input costs and the volatility and the commodity prices. And we try to make these budgets for what we think it's going to be the average for the year. It's not necessarily what things are right today. It's our best guess and it got to be a lot of guessing. These budgets do vary quite a bit by crop and by region and always remember these are a guide. It's just something that a farmer can fill in his own numbers because every situation is different. And one thing to remember too that these are estimates of return to labor and management with no consideration to the risk. So next I want to show you the budget map. We break the state down into four or nine regions and basically there's cropping systems that are unique for those various regions. They do things certain ways. As I've done these crop budgets over the years things are getting a little more homogeneous and maybe at some point we could maybe just have five regions instead of nine but at this point this is what we're doing. So the next slide I want to talk about some generalizations. I won't show you any numbers. The budgets are on the web now. Generally for most all regions there's been an improved profit from the previous year. When I first started these working on these I thought man everything's going to be negative with the high fertilizer prices and the high chemical prices. But it actually didn't turn out too bad. On a negative note of course we know all about the increases in fertilizer prices and then certain chemicals. All chemicals are up but especially some like Roundup and Liberty. But this is what was a surprise to me. Well not a surprise I should have known. I checked with Eggwice and Northwood and they do all the they do a very good job of keeping track of the soil nutrient levels throughout the state. And they're basically double from last year because of the drought. The crop didn't take the nutrients out like a normal year. Now you may have your farm may have had some rain showers and you may have had a good crop during the drought. So as Brian mentioned earlier soil tests are just a must this year. But you could actually see quite a bit on the fertilizer bill. And I put the regional nutrient test for each region. So that helped a lot on the fertilizer cost per acre. The next slide I'm going to talk about the cost. As I mentioned fertilizer cost have had the most increase of all the costs. And even with if even when you factor in applying a less rate because of the higher nutrients it's still the highest cost. Crops like corn and wheat too big fertilizer users they were the hardest hit as far as the cost. And also crops that also you know pesticide costs have increased and also crops that have a lot of pesticide use usage they really showed a significant increase in costs. Everything seemed to be up seed was up for most crops fuel of course we know that's up we see that at the pump repairs and ownerships they that always seems to go up every year. Land rants you know we don't have much hard data on that. And so the data we have shows things fairly flat. We don't get our next land rent survey till April so so at this point we kind of kept them flat. The yields then on the next slide that the yields then that we that we used are based on an average of seven-year moving average. And then of course we got our commodity prices from from Frane and he has he's done his best to try to figure out a price for the for the year and with all that everything seemed to be very positive. I wanted to note that we do a lot of different crops in these budgets a lot of specialty crops and some of them look like they have a very good return and you really don't want to plant the whole crop to a whole the whole farm to a specialty crop you're taking a very high risk. A lot of them have contracts and and and and reduction it and and limitations on on what they'll pay is it with the yield so make sure and use these as a guide. Here is the next slide shows the link to get to the crop budgets and the next slide i'm going to talk about crop compare that is another tool that kind of goes along with these budgets we use our budget numbers and this is available online too. We only use the direct costs and it's kind of a way of of changing prices and comparing comparing costs among among the crops if you're we we can grow a myriad of different crops in North Dakota so if you want to try different crops you can you can pick a reference crop and and then it will actually kind of show you the differences. The next slide I want to make sure that that you understand that this is for checking scenarios until you actually make your final planting decision you you look at break even prices. We're assuming that that kind of an assumption that the fixed costs are static for example you could probably be grow wheat and barley with the same equipment but if you had some crop that you don't have the proper equipment you need to adjust your cost for that so it doesn't account for that. The last slide then shows you the the link to get to the crop compare program on our on our website so with that I will turn it over to Dave. All right thanks Ron yeah I'll I'll share those links in an email following today's webinar. I just have some really quick comments about a recently announced funding from USDA and the reason I want to talk about it is not so much that the funding is there but rather taking it as a signal of what might be coming from USDA and federal farm policy in the next farm bill in upcoming years and so anyways on Monday there was an announcement that was somewhat expected regarding monies available for what they're calling climate smart commodities and this is really part of the push it's been around for you know over a year with a new administration for climate smart agriculture and again this is really just broadly speaking about ways that we can manage greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture and forestry. What they decided to do at USDA is take a billion dollars with monies from the CCC. I remember when a billion dollars was a lot of money I think it maybe still is to some extent but that's what they they've set aside with this and again these are things that you know the administration can do without acts of congress similar to what the last administration did to help offset losses from the trade war but anyways there's two pools of money available and there's actually a really quick turnaround for both of these so with the first pool they're looking for large-scale projects from five to a hundred million dollars those proposals are due in less than two months and then there's a the second pool which is due later at the end of May it's for smaller projects from 250,000 to just under five million dollars so these are obviously quite large projects or could be quite large projects going forward. Anyways you know they're looking for a couple of things this is where I think it's kind of important you know they're looking for pilot projects that help us identify how we can best manage greenhouse gas flows looking at the costs and the benefits you know how to best conduct these practices and again to me I think this might be a signal of the practices that would be approved likely by the federal government for funding and so it's it's kind of laying that foundation first there's this signal that hey we can use CCC to to to find funding and second we're looking specifically at practices that might be good for the environment or good for climate with the actual activities that would be funded here's a laundry list of some of the projects they're looking at I remove the most of those which we're focusing primarily on forestry most of these aren't surprising if you're if you're familiar with what's been done recently in this space but it might again be kind of a signal of where future farm programs might be providing monies to farmers to producers for for new practices so cover crops strip till no till uh nutrient management and the like and you can just see that that full battery of bliss these these aren't anything new but again it could be you know that that some of these all of these would end up being different options for farmers to practice you know beginning in 2024 and and forward with some sort of financial assistance from the federal government again they're really kind of looking at a couple things one is the practice themselves then also how do you monitor and verify these things and finally how do you build a market in each one of these legs are really important to kind of what's going on with these emerging carbon markets and so you can see that this is supportive of things that have been happening in many respects largely in the voluntary markets the carbon offset markets and not federal programs to date but they really align closely with what is evolving or kind of coming together on that private side and so this is to support those private activities to some extent but then also possibly to provide that foundation for future activity that the federal government might be supporting so I do think it's important for everybody in agriculture to take note of this again the the administration found you know a billion dollars out of ccc even though it's you know it's a it's a driven by the administration itself most of these aims are broadly supported in agriculture across both parties and geographically to in in general so I think it is important for us that to keep wind of this to see how this goes also in a in a few months to see which types of projects are selected to see what folks are thinking about how climate smart commodities climate smart agriculture might look both in terms of federal programs and then in terms of what we end up doing in the country to to take advantage or to help support these climate issues that we're facing so that was the official end of the the the remarks that we had prepared we do have some time for questions I believe we might have some already we'd ask you using the q&a tool but the chat tool works as well we'll go through those questions as as we have time as long as they keep coming we'll be we'll be happy to answer them as I mentioned I will send a url for for professor walkenheim survey as well as the urls for the crop budget and crop compare that that ron just talked about so with that I think we can open up the questions if anybody wants to grab some that are up there I see one I see there's a question about the sugar be do we do a sugar beet budget no we do not we have not done that for many many years it was kind of hard to for us to get the information that we wanted and it's kind of and we just decided we're not going to do it we don't do potatoes either I guess and it was just we got enough to do and and it was just tougher to get the data yeah a lot of a lot of the potato especially potatoes potatoes they go they're contracted and it's kind of like private information sometimes so and I think it was the same question on both yeah yep I did anybody else have any other questions or comments or thoughts that came up when others were speaking you know one question I have is you know with this these changes in fertilizer prices what might you know the implications behind how you know how long lived are these high prices going to be is it you know just for this this crop year this marketing year and then also too you know are we going to see shifts in practices you know and and Brian already spoke about you know testing being really important you know more testing but then also even shifts of different fertilizers and shifts of crops you know depending on profitability although Ron like you said you know even though a lot of these input prices are high there's there's these are still profitable most of them are still expected to be profitable but as I don't see any other questions to make best use of everybody's time I want to thank everybody for joining us and the panelists for for presenting today our next webinar will be in four weeks on March 10th at the same URL if you've been registered you're registered for the rest of the year I will try and send a reminder out beforehand to get it get that reminder out to you and of course you can see this recording of this webinar as well as past webinars the slide deck and past slide decks on the URL on the screen usually that takes a couple of days just to get everything edited and up but it will be there shortly and as I mentioned I'll send out the links for the other resources we talked about today and with that I hope you guys all have a great weekend and as Tim mentioned a happy enjoyable Valentine's Day thanks