I'm going to get started. Welcome to CMC Markets, Non-Farm Payrolls webinar on Friday, the 5th of March 2021. Thank you for joining me. Michael Houston, will I take you through the numbers that are due out in just over 15 minutes? Certainly going to be an interesting set of numbers. I'm not sure that they're going to have a significant impact on where the markets are going, but nonetheless, we could see some very interesting price movements going forward. Before I get started, we'll go through a little bit of housekeeping with the disclaimers and what have you. Get them out of the way and then we can get cracking on looking back at this week's events in the context of today's payrolls number and what is likely to happen to markets over the course of the next few days, bearing in mind, of course, that we've got an ECB rate meeting next week and a Fed meeting the week after. So the next two weeks are going to be, I think, fairly important in the context of central bank jaw bonery, for want of a better word, when it comes to trying to keep a cap on the recent rise in long-term bond yields that we've seen over the course of the past few days. Now, I'm going to show you a Bloomberg chart to try and give you an indication of why markets are spooking out the way that they have been. And what I've got here is an overlay of the spread between the US 10-year yield and the US 2-year yield over the course of the past 10 years.  Now, the Federal Reserve this week has gone to great lengths to tell the markets that they're not overly concerned about the rise in the long end of the yield curve. And this graph down here at the bottom is the rate differential between the 10-year and the 2-year. Now, one of the big complaints that banks have had over the course of the past few years is the fact the yield curve has been flat, i.e., the difference between two 5s, 10s has been very, very narrow. And that means that their ability to make a profit is compromised. Over the course, since the beginning of this year, we've seen a sharp spike higher in the longer end of the yield curve relative to the shorter end. And if you look at this orange line here, short-term borrowing costs are fairly well anchored. They're anchored. They're trading sideways. They're not going up. That's a good thing because, ultimately, what that means is that companies can borrow fairly short-term at fairly low rates. What's concerning people is the rise in the longer end. Now, the reason we're getting the rise in the longer end is because of higher expectations of a very significant economic rebound in the wake of the rollout of the vaccine programs here in the UK as well as the US. Now, bear with me, this does have an impact on today's payroll's number. Because how good or bad today's payroll's number will indicate whether or not we get further rises in the US 10-year yield. Now, at the moment, it's at 158. That's this number here. So we're at 158. At the beginning of this year, US 10-year yields were at 0.9%. So that's really a significant rise over the course of the past three months, or less than three months. It's the equivalent to a 60 basis point rate hike. So obviously, there's concern about a tightening of financial conditions and that's a concern. So this is my Bloomberg terminal that I'm looking at here. So this is something that I put together just before we came on. So this is not something that you can view on the CMC platform. I'm just showing you this for illustrative purposes as to why markets are concerned about rising interest rates at the longer end. Because if you look at the S&P 500, it trades on a one-year dividend yield of about 1.4%, 1.5%. Now, if interest rates are at zero, then it pays to buy stocks. Because in terms of valuation, you're likely to get a fairly decent capital gain. When US 10-year treasury yields are at 1.5% or exceed the forward dividend yield on the S&P 500, the reasons for owning stocks are far less compelling. And that is why you're getting rotation out of the higher-valued areas of the US market and you're getting a rise in bond yields. And the reason you're getting a rotation out of the higher-valued markets is simply because the case for owning something which has a yield of less than 1 or 1.5% becomes far less compelling. So you move that capital out and you move it into lower parts or lower areas of the market that have a lower valuation, which is why in the past two or three weeks, you've actually seen European markets outperform US markets. You're seeing more capital moving into the UK, FTSE 100, and European markets more broadly. Now, you may raise your eyebrows at me saying that, but if you actually look at what US markets have done over the last three weeks, they're on course for the third successive weekly decline, particularly the NASDAQ. The DAX is going to finish higher this week, as is the FTSE 100. So you're getting the beginnings of a divergence in the more highly-valued areas of the US market into the more cheaply-valued areas of the US market. And that's a direct consequence of what we're seeing here. You're also seeing the dollar strengthened as well on the back of optimism about the recovery that we've been seeing in the dollar index. Now, if we look at the dollar index, we can see from this chart here that we're starting to break higher. And that potentially tells me that the dollar is likely to strengthen even further. Now, you can argue whether or not that's a good thing or a bad thing for US equities. I would argue in some areas of the US equity market, it's a good thing, but the more highly-valued parts of the US equity market may be not so much. So why does what I've shown you just now matter in the context of the payroll's report? Well, I'll tell you, if we get a fairly decent number of the US payrolls and we're expecting a region and the range for the expectations is minus 100,000 to plus 500,000. So it puts us in the middle of around about plus 200,000 as a consensus view. Now ADP, the ADP report earlier this week, came in at 117,000 and that was well below market consensus of 200,000. Now, we've got a US stimulus plan that's currently going through the various procedures in the US Senate. The hope is that it will get voted through this weekend and we'll get another stimulus program of $1.9 trillion on top of the $900 billion that we saw at the end of last year and which helped prompt a rebound in US retail sales for January of 5.3%. So a good payroll's number could be bad for US equities. Bottom line, why? Because ultimately what it will do is it will drive yields higher because it will then underpin the recovery story and prompt concerns about the Federal Reserve tightening policy sooner rather than later. So that's why the dollar is also rising because the market is pricing in the prospect that the Fed may have to tighten, not that it will, it may have to tighten before the end of 2023-2024, which at the moment, it's encouraging the market to think. If you look at the two-year yield on US treasuries, it's trading at 0.13%. So at the moment, the market is not thinking, the market at the moment is not thinking that the Fed is likely to tighten anytime soon, but it is thinking that it will have to tighten before the ECB or potentially the Bank of England. Having said that, the way Cable's performed over the course of the past few weeks, there is a possibility the Bank of England may well have to tighten sooner rather than later as well. The prospect of negative rates is no longer on the table. As long as the vaccine rollout continues the way that it has been, and we get an economic reopening on the timetable that's been laid out by the UK government, what you're seeing in Europe at the moment is concerns about a third wave rising infections in France, Italy, Germany and Spain, which is likely to hollow out their services recovery in the summer. That's going to have significantly negative consequences for the likes of Spain, Italy and Greece who rely ever so much on a decent tourist season for the health of their overall economy. So the Cable is being affected by the stronger dollar, but it's also being underpinned by a weaker euro. So I still think the pound has potential to go higher as long as it stays above 137.30, but digressing. Let's have a look at the key levels on the NASDAQ because yesterday I tweeted a chart 24 hours ago with respect to the NASDAQ that suggested we may well have seen a reversal of the uptrend that's been in place over the course of the past 12 months. We've broken lower. We've taken out this previous low here. Now what that means is momentum is starting to subside and the case for owning tech stocks if yields continue to rise will continue to diminish in terms of their overall valuation. If you look at companies like Tesla, Apple, Amazon and what have you, while the case for owning them is fairly compelling, Tesla less so because it doesn't make any money, not from selling its cars anyway, then investors are going to have to take a much more critical look at the underlying fundamentals that underpin a good proportion of the rise that we've seen in equity markets over the course of the past two, three years. And if you take the tech sector out of the equation for US equity markets, most of the rise that we've seen over the course of the past two or three years has been pretty much as a result of unicorns like Peloton, well that's not unicorn anymore, but all of these IPOs that have been trading at a premium straight out of the block and which now or what we call stay at home stocks and which on an economic reopening could actually struggle to keep pace with the type of revenue growth that we've come used to. So on a technical basis the NASDAQ is looking a little bit ropey in terms of further upside potential. Now that doesn't necessarily mean that it won't finish the year higher but I think there is potential for us to come down a little bit more particularly if the payrolls numbers are particularly solid. Now they could just be neutral in which case we'll just get further chopping around and probably trade into the weekend you know in a slightly in a slightly sideways fashion but if we look at the weekly chart here we can see straight away that we've seen three very strong downward thrusts to the downside and as such the upward momentum does appear to be waning. So let's move on to the S&P and the S&P more encouragingly even though it has also been coming down it's still above this previous low back in the first of February so in terms of the S&P we're not at risk of coming down significantly harder but we are coming close to a very important trend line on the daily charts from these lows in December. So I changed that to a four hour chart just to give you a better indication of where the support lines are but we really do need to get back above 3800 very very quickly to reinstigate the upward momentum because at the moment we're looking at these highs they're getting lower the lows are getting lower and there is a risk overall that we could start to roll over in the short in the short term and in the here and now when we're looking as we come into the weekend I think there is potential for a little bit of a short squeeze but again here we're on course for a third successive weekly decline and I'm not sure today's payrolls numbers will probably change that too much even though we could see a move higher into the weekend. Looking at the US 30 the Dow whatever whatever you want to call it the Dow's much more resilient there's an awful lot more resilient but that's essentially because it's not particularly tech heavy and it has an awful lot of big caps in it but it has posted a bearish reversal all the way back at the end of the month and it started to trend a little bit lower so in terms of the overall of the overall overview of US markets I would suggest the Dow is probably the less susceptible to downside risk than the other two. Russell 2000 has started to show signs of running out of steam as well I'm probably not as convinced about the downside in the Russell 2000 as I am in the NASDAQ simply because it's much more domestically focused and if the US economy does well in 2021 then the Russell 2000 should benefit on the back of that. So what we're getting here at the moment ladies and gentlemen there's significant divergence between the more richly valued areas of the US market and the rest of the market if we look at the DAX we posted a record high earlier this week which explains why despite all of these declines in US markets we're not getting an awful lot of downside risk and I don't think that we will I think even if US markets continue to decline any downside in European markets is likely to be fairly limited simply because on a valuation basis there's so much cheaper now that doesn't necessarily mean they can go roaring higher but certainly I'm much more optimistic about the prospects for the likes of the FTSE 100 and those of you who've been regular attendees to my webinars will know that I'm bullish on the FTSE 100 I think we can finish I think we can head back to 7,000 and certainly on the basis of this chart here we are gearing up for a break higher if we can get through this upper line through here if we look at the weekly chart we can see that even better the FTSE 100 is really underperformed and what's really driving it higher at the moment is the rebound obviously in the oil price with that OPEC with that OPEC decision earlier this week and I think that for me is a little bit of a concern going forward because one of the last things that we want to see when it comes to crude oil is for it to go too high too quickly and just quickly get this in before the numbers come out this is a big level around about 72.50 it's also the highs here here and here so at some point we're going to have to start thinking about whether or not oil at these sorts of levels is going to act as a break on the economic recovery than anything else let's quickly go through the numbers now we're two minutes away looking for anything between 182,000 and 210,000 look for a revision to the January number we could get an upward or downward revision there so keep an eye on that keep an eye more importantly on the unemployment rate relative to the participation rate we don't have that on here so I will be keeping a close eye on that because the participation rate is still quite low and 61.4% so if that starts ticking up that's actually a good thing particularly if unemployment continues to tick lower so all in all a decent number could well be negative stocks a bad number could actually be slightly positive and drive yields lower but it's really about yields now ladies and gentlemen as we're heading towards the payrolls numbers quickly go through euro-dollar that's still looking soft I'm still expecting a move back to 118.70 over the course of the next few trading sessions which means that if we get a move back to 119.20, 119.30 I certainly would be looking above 119.40 rather sorry because we're above that already towards 119.70 trying to get it in before the numbers come out look to sell any rallies back to 119.70 euro dollar cable support 137.30, 137.20 right I'll be quiet now wait for the numbers to come out okay that looks like a stonking number and it is a stonking number and it's a stonking revision as well absolutely stonking revision there and the unemployment rate is lower so that's going to place upward pressure on US yields and that's precisely what it has done it's they've gone up already to if I can actually look at my Bloomberg it's a 160 already dollars gone bid not surprisingly on the back of that let's quickly look at a five-minute chart down we go average earnings I'm not too concerned about that at the moment because they're skewed by the fact that you've got an awful lot of people who are out of work and most of the people who lost their jobs were at the lower end of the price scale or the wage scale but that revision I mean that's that's an absolutely stonking payrolls report very dollar positive and ultimately just reinforces the narrative of the economic recovery story so let's just quickly look at what US futures are doing on the back of that there you go and as I suspected the immediate impulse reaction there is is to sell good news sell good news buy bad news you know I'm almost in a time warp from about five or ten years ago and the worse than news buy stocks good news sell stocks and you can certainly see in the context of where we are and euro dollar that the line of least resistance is for a dollar surge and and a spike higher in US 10-year treasuries which are now above 160 if I just pull this over now we can see that with this chart here US 10 year around about 160 now bear in mind the previous peaks were around about 161 so that is just one month's number so you know be very care of selling stocks be very well start again be careful about selling euro dollar aggressively at these sorts of levels because you could get squeezed but certainly I think the die has been cast when it comes to the overall picture going forward the recovery story is once again reinforced the Fed is unlikely to step in unless the two-year yield starts to rise the 10-year yield they're not overly concerned about the moment and as we can see from that previous chart that I showed you with respect to with respect to lots of train of thought now a previous chart I showed you with respect to the yields means that we could well see further sell-off and bond markets and further strengthen yields up to 1.7 1.75 percent but that's not necessarily a bad thing gold I mean gold is going to take a rinsing on the back of this number I would suggest if I just quickly go to gold we are likely to see further losses in gold there is an inverse correlation between what bond yields are doing David and what gold is doing and if we look at this chart here I think we're probably going to see further losses back to the lows that we saw back in June 2020 when we were around around about 1660 1670 if you look at the way the gold has been trading since US yields have been going up you can see that there is this inverse correlation US yields here were around about 10 years with 0.9 percent they're now 1.6 percent so essentially if you're looking at a gold position you have to really think about what US yields long term 10 year yields are doing and what the dollar is doing and at the moment if you're longer gold then you're going to be in an awful lot of difficulty and potentially we could well see further losses in gold towards the lows that we saw in the middle of the summer so hopefully that answers your question on that and you can see from the channel that I've drawn in that the overall trend is for a lower gold price so we may see a rebound back to 1720 1730 but while we're below 1720 1730 the trend is very much towards the downside for gold prices are there any other questions ladies and gentlemen yes interested in in view dolly yen higher in in a word if you've been following my weekly videos we've had the breakout above 10680 we've held above this trend line here which I've been talking about in every single video over the past month or so we've held above that and at the moment we look to be on course back to 10980 for dolly yen which is basically the June peaks of last year so certainly in the context of dolly yen we're above the 200-day moving average we've broken this up with resistance level through here and again this is a US yield story dolly yen will continue to benefit while US 10 year yields continue to grind higher so very much a case of buy the dips and dolly yen while yields remain strong sterling yen again I would suggest that sterling yen line of lease resistance is likely to be the same by the dips in sterling yen because I'm fairly bullish on cable despite the dollar strength as long as we hold above 13720 13730 why is that important I'll tell you in a minute but first and foremost let's draw in a trend line through here there we go there we go okay so you've got a nice little trend line there in dolly yen and that's likely to keep the overall trend higher intact for quite some time the only concern that I might have is any short-term weakness in cable might act as a bit of a drag on sterling yen and that is something that you do need to be mindful of particularly where the key support levels are in the cable trade and I will look at that now because I think given this bout of dollar strength the cable is going to come under pressure over the course of the next few weeks look at the 50-day moving average we've got a nice little trend for following here but the really important level ladies and gentlemen is this level through here through this series of peaks between 13710 and 13750 because this was the breakout level and which cable found really difficult to crack on the initial move higher so we need to be really mindful that as long as we hold above this series of peaks through here and the 50-day moving average then it's still very much a by-the-dip scenario for cable I will only reverse that view if we break the trend line the 50-day moving average and this February low here at 13560 so cable will be affected by a stronger dollar but if euro sterling remains weak that should offset some of the dollar strength so that's why it's important that when we look at currency pairs and particularly the cable that we also look at what euro sterling is doing because there is there is a very distinct correlation and relationship between the two now if we look at euro sterling once we broke out below this horizontal line through here and again regular attendees of my webinars will know that I'm a big proponent of support and resistance levels and these sorts of breakouts now this was a bit messy I grant you you know and it probably wasn't the most ideal scenario but once we got through it and consolidated through it it's gone it's ancient history and now for me euro sterling is very much sell the rally so you know that's something that we really need to focus on more than anything else now we have posted a little bit of a doji there which was prompted a bit of a pullback and that would suggest that we do have some buying interest down here but this peak here at 87.30 is going to be a key line in the sand for me as long as we remain below 87.30 I'm very much of the opinion that euro sterling line of least resistance is for further euro weakness further sterling strength and I I don't think the european central bank are going to be talking the euro up next week not by any stretch of the imagination they want a weaker euro now you can argue the bank of england doesn't want a stronger pound but i'm not being funny the pound isn't that strong not on a historical basis you know we're at 137 138 it's not a big number by any stretch of the imagination you know so it's not something that i'm going to be overly stressing about and you may get the bank of england saying this you know high in a higher pound is not good but i would actually counter that by saying a higher pound is actually very good because it clamps down on inflation it has a significant deflationary effect and the uk does suffer quite a bit from higher levels of inflation than the european peers or its us peers so for me a higher pound is actually good and also it means that you get more euros and dollars for your sterling if and when we're able finally to go on holiday so all in all um you know i'm still fairly bullish for sterling overall and certainly in the context of the sterling index which i can find here let's quickly open that there we go as i say we've seen a little bit of short term weakness but overall we're still in the broader uptrend and we are getting a little bit of weakness at the moment but we're still above the lows that we saw on the 26th of february so you know on a broad basis we've seen a little bit of a short term peak we may see a little bit of sideways consolidation but that's no reason to suggest that we won't see further sterling strength going forward i've been asked about ozzy dollar and that was certainly very that's certainly a very interesting chart let's just get rid of this because this is now surplus two requirements as is that this is very much a commodities play now last i don't know how many of you saw my copper video of last week last friday um but bear with me on this because it's important i think there is some evidence that we may have seen a short term peak in copper prices why do i say that because of what i saw last week with this bearish key day reversal on copper um over the course of the past 12 months we've seen copper prices rise exponentially rise really sharply they've doubled nearly doubled in value and at the end of february we saw a reversal which suggested that we may have well topped out nickel prices have fallen even faster and the reason we've seen this rise in base metals prices is the recovery story the copper is used and a whole host of different things it's used in um obviously electrical wiring it's used it's a good conductor of electricity it's used in solar panels it's used in batteries it's used in motor vehicles it's used in anything that basically runs on an electrical impulse so if you're going to a greener future and for renewables you need copper you need nickel now this doesn't mean that it can't go higher but at the moment we're seeing a short-term pause now that has significant consequences for the Aussie so obviously the Aussie showed a reversal at around about the same time right about the end of february same key day reversal so big question now for Aussie dollar in the face of a strengthening US dollar is to keep an eye on these lows here so you know Aussie dollar is a commodity play because of the number of miners that operate in Australia BHP Rio Tinto two biggest miners and commodities in the world so the price of commodities plays a significant role in how well the Aussie dollar does so the key level for me on Aussie dollar is in and around the February lows here which is around about 75 60 we've seen a bit of a reversal let's look at the weekly chart to see if that's replicated and yes it is replicated here so every single chart that I look at is telling me that the dollar is likely to rebound that's significant against the Aussie we've seen a reversal euro dollar looks weak dolly in looks strong you know there is a theme going through all of this and if we get a break of this 75 60 level Aussie dollar we could come all the way back down to 72 so the Aussie dollar is very much sell the rally type of trade when it comes to current sentiment and the only way that I would reverse that call is if we trade back above these two peaks here on the 2nd and 3rd of March 7840 okay so that for me I think is the big problem I think now with respect to Kiwi I've just been told that some people have lost audio please confirm that the rest of you have still have audio and just just take a break check speakers okay Kiwi quickly check the Kiwi and we're at a very key support level on Kiwi dollar at the moment if we look at this chart here and it's a similar sort of story with the Kiwi so if we draw a horizontal support and resistance line through here I can actually get it to attach we're right on 71 a break of that could we'll see us drop a little bit further let's get rid of that line there so this this looks as if we could be on the cusp of a bit of a reversal in the Kiwi as well certainly it certainly looks more compelling but again you know we are on the cusp of a very key support level on the Kiwi so for all of those people who've been writing the dollar off you know I've been in this market for 30 years and people have been writing off the dollar for the last 30 years and it always tends to come back stronger and usually when you get a chorus of people writing off a particular currency particularly when it's the dollar it's usually the time to go long of it anyway okay so um any more questions ladies and gents before I move on or wind this up because I think silver yep silver silver silver just just checking to make sure I haven't missed that so now we're going to move on to silver just right here yeah the picture for silver on a technical basis looks a little bit negative we can see a break of that short-term trend line here important to remember though that there's going to be fairly decent support in and around $24 so while I think we could get a little bit of weakness going forward I think the downside any downside is likely to be limited to the lows that we saw in January the 18th and obviously the 50 day moving average which is actually is a decent area of support and positive trend over the course of the past few weeks and months so no reason to suppose that silver won't remain fairly well supported obviously we also have the $30 level which we were driven there at the beginning of February by the reddit crowd when they decided they wanted to take on the silver market which was probably not the wisest thing they could have done okay so what else have we got right crude oil crude oil I'll try and deal with your questions each in turn right crude oil looks still looks fairly positive for the in the short to medium term certainly on the basis of this chart I'm going to change it to a weekly chart so that you can actually see the bars on a more granular basis but what I would say is that you're going to start finding the air is a little bit thin anywhere near 72 73 dollars a barrel you've got the highs from last year and obviously you've also got the highs from September 2019 so I think there is potential for further gains in the short to medium term but at some point the pressure for OPEC to release more barrels onto the market is going to grow on the basis that higher levels of inflation are likely to tighten financial conditions and if I'm honest I think Saudi Arabia are playing a very dangerous game because all they're doing is hastening the move towards renewables by making oil much more expensive and you're also expediting the return of the US shale industry after they got knocked out due to the cold weather they're going to take a while to come back but they'll be back so this talk of 80 85 dollars a barrel I'm not convinced about it simply because everyone's calling for it once everyone starts to call for a particular thing to happen that's usually the time to go the other way but at the moment you know very very solid week of gains for crude oil but you've got to think that we're starting to find the air a little bit thin at current levels and looking looking I'm certainly looking for a move back towards the peaks that we saw just over a year ago right very good question employment numbers improving seem to point to an improving economy so why would the stock market come down due to higher bond yields it's a bit confusing encounter intuitive yes it is but it's only certain parts of the stock market are coming down when I was in my introduction I outlined my reasonings as to why an improving economic picture could actually be negative for the stock market the stock market is not homogenous blob it's a it's a load of different sectors and what we're seeing at the moment is weakness in the more highly valued areas of the stock market so for example if we look at say for example the US NASDAQ an awful lot of those stocks have been rising exponentially over the course of the past four or five years because interest rates have been nailed to the floor so the the reasoning for owning them is very compelling because you can't get anything in terms of a return on government bonds but you can get a decent return on stock markets now you can get a decent return on US treasuries but there is no sort of dividend return or income return on say for example the more highly valued areas of the stock market so what you're seeing is the NASDAQ 100 coming down it's down for three weeks in a row but European markets are higher this week the FTSEA is higher the DAX is higher we've seen big gains in oil and gas stocks and they were the biggest victims of the sell-off at the beginning of last year and the lows that we saw in April May so money's coming out of the more expensive areas of the market and going into the cheaper areas of the market but at the same time bond yields are going up because markets are pricing in a recovery story and a potentially higher rate environment so I hope that makes sense for you Angela or if it doesn't drop me an email and I'm trying to explain it a little bit further you'll be getting an email in 24 hours asking for feedback on the session so if you do have any questions on anything that I've covered please include any comments in that email okay with respect to do you think the rise in US Treasury yields will be capped by foreign investors attracted by higher yields I do but that doesn't necessarily mean that I don't think yields can go higher I think the higher yields are a consequence a direct consequence of a more positive recovery story and certainly I think you will start to see more buyers of US Treasuries as the market continues to fall and yields continue to move higher but you're probably better off still putting your money in some of the more cheaper areas of the market particularly in Europe and in the UK so in terms of the dollar story more broadly I think the dollar will strengthen and as a result that will be on the basis of more stimulus just to think on the basis of the fact that people will think that the Fed won't be able to key interest rate expectations in place could cable touch 146 what time frame do you have in mind I mean yeah it can touch 146 maybe in two years time not this year I certainly think we can probably go as far as 142 143 over the course of the rest of the year 146 is probably optimistic but I'm still very much while we're above 137.5 in cable remain very much in buy-the-dip mode if we drop below that then obviously I will have to change my view and it's really about that what's your you know what's your reaction function when it comes to a particular currency pair I'm buy-the-dip until such and such things happen otherwise I will then change my strategy on that and at the moment I'm very much buy-the-dip can I can it touch 146 maybe but certainly it's got to get through 140 it's got to get through 140 first and until it does I'm not calling for it much higher than that it's about taking one step at a time you know to get to 146 it needs to clear 140 so until it does so thinking about whether it can go to 146 is really neither here nor there um Swiss franc okay similar sort of story I mean you know it's pretty much looking for a move back to 94 it's broken above the 200 day move in average that's positive for it likelihood is we're going to see a weaker swiss franc stronger dollar that was that will please the swiss national bank who don't like a strong franc so every commentator was saying dollar week in 2021 due to stimulus kicking in not every commentator Richard so yeah I mean basically I still think dollars buy-the-dips Gary send me an email and I'll put you in touch with the people you can talk to um as I said you'll be getting um you'll be getting um a feedback email in the next 24 hours just reply to that I will then forward your details on um with respect to your question Angela about rewatch the beginning of your presentation I am recording this and once I finished it I will upload it to CMC YouTube.com forward slash CMC markets PLC I will also tweet the um replay of this webcast on social media so um on Twitter and LinkedIn so it is it is my copper chat was recorded you can find it on CMC YouTube.com forward slash CMC markets PLC um on our YouTube channel and you can watch it I mean obviously it's a week old now so it's a bit a little bit of ancient history but nonetheless it you know all the stuff is there um the Euro Currency Index is the euro versus major trading partners in answer your question for stuffer yes it is um buh buh buh buh buh keep going keep going keep going when you say my price target for the dollar against what Angela okay so um while I'm while I'm waiting for a response to that particular question I'm going to wind this up um for you ladies and gentlemen and say I'll get to Singapore dollar ah right okay um give me a second well let's find the Singapore dollar for you before I wind it up oh it was there I don't think it is so let's just quickly find it usd sgd okay close that maximize that so you can see the bowl this all gives you a bit of an insight into my thought process is when I'm doing analysis and what have you okay so it looks to me as if the Singapore dollar has just completed a double bottom so let's just quickly do that over labels okay so this would suggest to me that now we've broken through 134 that we could we'll see a move back towards the 200-day move in average on this break higher um because we had a good deal of resistance all the way through here so any short position on a Singapore dollar trade would have had stop losses through 134 so certainly in the context of this particular move this ties into my stronger dollar story yes the oscillator is overbought so that is a worry we might we could see a little bit of a slide back but overall as long as we stay in this uptrend here then Singapore dollar should be now very much a buy the dips type of trade but as I say as with any trade you've got to run your stop loss and I certainly wouldn't be getting long at these sorts of levels I'd be looking for a pullback so we're around 13390 13380 or a pullback to this trend line here to get in for a move higher okay so um so there's that so anyway going back to this thank you very much ladies and gentlemen for your attendance today as I say I do these every month for non-farm payrolls we cover a whole multitude of different factors thank you for your questions thank you for your attendance and I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and have a great have a have a have a great weekend thanks very much


Welcome back to the batting practice show if you didn't catch the start we've taken over my name is Jimmy This is Jake. We're from talking Yanks and dream has come true. We're on yes network now We're gonna watch some BP. We said is it what do you want to talk about? So we want to watch some batting practice. It's a batting practice show. It's the batting practice show Let's watch some of the boys tee off and I think we're gonna get some good hints into who's gonna have a big Day today. We're gonna start off DJ26 DJ LeMayhew Doesn't like it great. I he's been walking a lot.  There's boony blown bubbles and the hitting coach that's okay And and no one wants it bloops in is that Britain Britain's out there. Okay? Development breaking news Britain is in the Bronx the vibes are electric. I was gonna say fielding But he wasn't really he was just standing around get up ball I mean that's at least two maybe three for LeMayhew. That's a double at Fenway that one easy power Let's go on okay for LeMayhew fans fight over that one and now he goes back to down the line foul Well, I love DJ LeMayhew's bat. It just looks like a relic. It looks like he's swinging with a a bat from 1930 that burnt dark look. Oh boy. That was hard made out of piano He he's actually been playing sneaky good lately. I think depending how you know, that's big gone. Yeah, that's how you Yeah, he was gonna do another one. He was like, nope. I'm out. It's got a chance. I think he's got oh Whoa, who's this cartoon character has wandered into the box. Oh, but WB Mason Matt Carpenter Not getting the start tonight, right? We thought he might cuz Rizzo got hit by the pitch They just love him as the pinch hitter. He actually has really good numbers off relief pitchers He does so much tongue action before your swings. Have you noticed that? It does like a full Garrett Cole Silly Garrett Cole has a huge development for this team this year. He likes winning and they've been doing a lot of that I think get up. Is it oh? I was gonna say maybe go Castro having a blast out there. He liked that one Matt Carpenter That feels like a pinch hit home run tonight I kf okay still looking for his first home run the season Yeah, he's gonna go say hi to some of the A's players Okay, all right, and they're friendly Elvis right Elvis Andrews members of Texas Rangers teammates glavers over there yuckin it up sneaky Sneaky chillin with the boys. I mean Joey was an ALS guy, so he probably knows all these guys. Oh, we had a funny joke Me supposedly a very funny guy Joey jokes. Yeah, okay, I kf He got his buns out of the way takes the first bit. She's fundamentals, but he liked it. He said that was good He threw that one. Oh good. I coach now Jimmy. Yeah, I kf without a homer on the season Yeah, we're doing the first ever there it is talking yanks No Yankees prospect James probably his friend of ours. Yeah, he was probably minor league teammates Yeah, I got some swinging strikes and blitzball. Oh, here is here's Jake's guy. Jake's Jake loves If there was a Yankees home run derby, I think Kyle Higashiyoka would finish top five I think you'd have to drop the bracket. Yeah, and I think he has to get a good seat I think you'd have he'd have one upset that would surprise people, but Higgie's got pop Higgie pop Jack Curry You told him this and he would thought you were he almost didn't he thought you're playing a joke And I mean thought you're being rude. Did he just okay? Okay, but why didn't that kid rob him this time? No, it's just Yeah


Hey guys, it's Nate, A.K. the Foot Accountant. Welcome back to the channel. Rule Breakers, set number two. And again, server breakers, set number two. A lot of servers were down today for some guys as well, not as bad as last week. But I want to talk about this second team, all the content that dropped today, and the market movements that were had because of this coming out. A lot of extinct cards were the new rule breakers today. Like half the team was extinct until just a little bit ago when they updated price ranges. So I'm going to talk about that where you can expect those cards to go and just how grossly overpriced all of these players inside this promo are at the moment. It's honestly ridiculous. So we're going to talk about all that today. So let's review the content, little promo review to start things off. This is the team that dropped today. Of course, special cards, impacts. You were barely able to buy these cards because they were extinct for like three hours, but they're on the market now with some price range updates. Pogba's obviously the headliner. You've got D. Maria, Royce, Alex Tasharis turning some heads. A lot of people were interested in potents actually. Quadrado gets a right back card, which is nice. Opares got a cool card as well with a lot of pace on a center back. This card might be decently OP. Obviously just very hard to link because it is MLS, but this is the squad today. Of course, Royce and Lukaku were the players that they ended up leaking. So if you did guess Royce and Lukaku, you were correct. This team was leaked today before the promo actually started again. We did have leaks and that was something that I saw across Twitter. But it's a decent team, right? Some people were saying this team, I would honestly argue that this team might be a smidge better than team one just because there's some more, I feel like usable players in here and just a little bit more hype for some of the upgrades. Even like Jimenez is a really usable card. We just need a dynamic image EA sports. I don't know what you're doing with Van Halte and Jimenez, we need those dynamics. But we do have our first, or one of our first white shirts of the year with Quadrado, of course, with EA not having the imaging rights for Juventus, AKA P-Monte Calcio, first of the year on those, I believe. But yeah, that's the rule breakers teams. And the biggest, most interesting part about this is this stuff goes out of packs. It's only impacts for four days, man. It's only impacts for four days and this is making a lot of people, including myself, think that this might just be the new way that EA is running promos, right? The first set is out of packs for a week and the second set is out of packs for like a half a week. So these guys are gonna go out of packs. I think it's Tuesday at 5.59 PM UK time. So basically Tuesday at the content drop, these guys will be out of packs and that will lead us into another loading time or maybe even loading screen time for probably the next promotion, which could be a road to the final unless EA is gonna run November, which I hopefully they don't. But I think it could be a road to the final coming after this. But again, these cards are only impacts for four days. So that means they're already rare because these cards are barely packable. These cards are gonna fluctuate a lot out of packs. That's gonna be fun to trade with and something to watch. But let's get on with the rest of the content. We did have another player pick SPC today. That was Bella Robbie, the Paciest, I think, in terms of a good value player. This is one of the Paciest right mids, right wings, in the Bundesliga, of course, because of the pace downgrades to Sancho and to Nabri. 87 pace, one card with 93 dribbling, one card with 88 shots. So again, big boost in those areas. You know, you kind of know you, if you're gonna do this SPC, I don't know, man. The shooting one looks interesting, but I don't know if you play this guy at Striker. So maybe you go with the dribbling one just cause he's gonna be out on the wing and maybe cutting in. So that's kind of a preference for you. I don't know if there's a lot of people doing this SPC, but it is a decent one. Now we added another objective player that was added today, Mr. Akin Fenawa. This guy's really friendly with EA. Like, him and EA, they love doing stuff. This guy gets some sort of special card like every year, the past couple of years. He's all about being Mr. Strong. He's a really strong guy in real life. He's absolutely jacked, which is pretty awesome as a footballer.  Definitely not as fast, but he's just a funny guy. So they did give him really nice upgrade over his, I think he has a silver item or maybe it's even bronze this year, but it is available in objectives and it's pretty easy to do. It's an easy English striker card that you can honestly put in your club and it's kind of just like a fun card to have. So Gigi's the EA for putting out fun objectives and it's pretty easy to do as well. Doing it in the live foot friendly section which a lot of the objectives they dropped today and in the past couple of days have been in the live foot friendlies, which is a W. So this is a decent one from EA Sports. Some people were saying we were gonna get a Zlatan Ibrahimovich objective today. That would have been sick, but I feel like it's a little bit too early for that from EA like this is a decent objective. I'm happy with it. I think a lot of people are as well. There was one other objective that dropped today. League one, league player. So the pack code that we saw last night or the card design foot wash tweet the last night that we looked at in our video was actually the league player card design. And the interesting thing about this is it's not a milestone player. This is just a league player. It's not in the milestone section. So that means that it is going to expire. We have 21 days left in the season, basically three weeks for the season one, the first season of FIFA 21 Ultimate Team. That means this card is going to expire. And unlike how some of the objective players and milestone players were last year, if you remember like Poletano for example, there was a secondary objective that you could do after you got Poletano, you could then upgrade his card. One of the things that was talked about in the pitch notes earlier this year about league players is it is a one time upgrade. So that means this Molet card, if you do get this objective, you do do this player's objective, he will not be able to be upgraded. This is his card. He's only out for 20 days. So he's not going to be in a milestone tab and be there forever. So this does expire, but it is a decent looking card. It is kind of time consuming. You have to win 15 matches using only league one players. That's the biggest, I guess, problem with this objective is it's going to be a little bit time consuming with winning 15 matches.  So that was a GG, and not a GG, but that's another objective content that we got today. Of course, there's the Moise Keen. We also got the no boundaries objective, which does give you some packs. And of course we have the mad science objective still in here as well. And again, the Bellarobi SPC was basically the only one we got today. We did get a kit SPC, which a lot of people were actually raving over this kit, the Screampuff kit. It's actually very interesting, the Screampuff kit. But the only problem is you have to turn in three squads, three freaking squads, man. Three gold squads, minimum rating of 75, 76, and 77 to get this kit. So this is going to be one of those like flex kits if you have it. But some people are saying that it looks pretty dope. It does look kind of funny. I think that's one of the most funny kits I've ever seen inside a FIFA. So that's interesting to say the least. But that was our new content today dropped by EA Sports. So a lot in quantity, but the quality is just kind of okay in my opinion. So let's take a look back at the team right now and take a look at some of these prices as well because I'm recording this a bit early and a lot of these cards were extinct today. And I want to talk about what I think EA is doing and why they're doing this. So Lukaku was extinct at 400,000 coins. Tashara was extinct at 300,000 coins flat. And I really think EA has like a mastermind plan behind doing all of this. Because what they're doing is when they make a card have kind of a lower price range, I don't even know if that Lukaku card is technically worth 400,000 coins. Like it doesn't make sense for me. Even this Tashara, an 83 rated card, new promo card. I know he's got PACE. I know he's got good links to the new Taliska and Polinho. But 430,000 coins for this and 1.6 million coins for a Paul Pugba that is a 47 stat increase from his gold card to his new rule breakers item. It's literally 47 stats are upgraded in that card. Now I know it's different, right? I know it's different because they changed his defensive stats, right? So instead of having more passing, he's got a lot more defense. So it's basically like you're buying this Pugba for 1.3 million coins more than his gold card with the shadow already applied with less passing. That's basically what this Pugba is. And it doesn't make sense to me that people wanna pay 1.4 million coins for basically a shadow chem style on a Paul Pugba with a dynamic image, a cool card design and minus nine passing. That's how I'm doing this. So now when you buy this Pugba, you're not gonna put a shadow on him. I guess some people are. I would put a catalyst on this card probably to boost his passing back up. Yeah, like this guy. But this is just what EA wants to do when they release promo cards on the market because what it does is it just makes for massive, massive inflation. This is how they do it, right? They make the cards really rare, right? They make the cards really rare. These cards are so unpackable. It's ridiculous. Like less than 1% is what it shows inside of the foot menu when you go inside the pack probabilities. But in all honesty, it's like less than 0.5% or less than like 0.01%. So they can get away with having less than 1% and satisfy their probabilities. But just the combination of these cards being so rare, they're not being a lot of special cards in the game yet. So people are just wanting to use something that spices up their squad and makes it look cool. And then also the price ranges, right? What they do with these price ranges is they make them extinct, right? Lukaku is extinct at 400,000 coins. And what that does is it makes you think, wow, wow, this Lukaku card is extinct at 400,000 coins. He must be worth a lot more than that. So people try to snipe the card or they can't get him. They have to wait until that price range updates. But all the while what they're feeling is, man, this guy must be wanted by a lot of people because he's extinct, he's not on the market. And it just makes you want the card more and it just like creates more of a like greed or desire in you as the user. Cause you want to use the card, right? You got footchamps to play. You want to use the card item. So what happens is it just creates more demand and more desire for these cards. And EA is like playing with all of us, man.  Because this demand, they know that it's there. They know people are going to buy the card and they did it last week with extinct Harry Kane and the other rule breakers that were extinct early on last week. They have this combination figured out where they make the card rare, they make the card extinct. So then the card price gets updated and then it maintains a higher price because there's just more demand for that card and people start valuing that card higher. And then EA's got you in the bag there too because then what happens is down the line two, three, four weeks later when the market crashes for some other reason, when there's more special cards coming out, they just make you lose coins, which all they want is for you to be losing coins constantly throughout the year, over and over and over every transaction when you buy a new promo card for when you sell it a week or two or three weeks later, they want to make you try to lose coins because then you're probably putting on more FIFA points to spend more money on the game to get those coins back through opening packs. So I think that's what EA is doing and they've been doing this over the years but it's really obvious after today and after the first couple of promos we've had this year, just with all of these cards being extinct, it doesn't make sense to me. In terms of a FIFA user, why these cards are this much? Like people, I would like to say that I think this entire community is smart enough to know that some of these cards are not worth that much but just with the demand and people wanting to be the best and trying out the newest cards and having the newest stuff and that's just not a FIFA thing. That's inside of all video games and in life. People want the newest, greatest and best thing and that's what these things are in FIFA. So of course, EA is gonna find a way to make you pay a premium for it so that you can possibly lose coins in the future and then benefit them by buying more FIFA points. So that's kind of my theory. Of course, that's pretty anti-EA honestly but over and over we've seen that throughout the past couple of years with the way they're doing promos and it's really, really coming out today. So what's gonna happen with these card prices though? Since these ranges just got updated, what I honestly see happening over the next couple of hours is overnight into the UK time these guys are probably just gonna start to trail back off in price. Now it got like potents who right now is 140. He was extinct at 150. He got his price range update to 200 and now people are listing him at 140. This card to me looks exactly like gold Rahim Sterling with less pace is what this card looks like to me. So he's probably gonna be somewhat in this price range just because it's a special item more rare than a gold card but I don't see much more in this card other than that to be honest with you. Like the rest of this team are there really any game-breaking players in here? If I'm being honest, not that many. Chua Nulu looks pretty good. Jimenez looks pretty solid. Quadrata looks interesting. Tashira's gonna have a lot of hype and he's gonna stay overpriced because of the Taliska links and Polinio links. DeMaria looks pretty good as well but a lot of these cards today, it's not a bad team. It's just, I feel like it could be a little bit better and you can just tell that EA is really trying to milk a promo this year, man. So the reason why these cards are so expensive is honestly it's baffling to me but I do think that people are gonna wake up on Saturday morning when you're maybe watching this video and you're gonna see these cards actually rise up from what they reach their lows on this Friday night into Saturday. They're probably still gonna rise up in the morning. So what I would do is, I'm recording this a bit early as you could tell there's still a light flowing in from the windows right now. It's usually not late when I'm recording this. It's early tonight. But as we head into the morning time on Saturday, you probably will see these cards hit a low point. I thought they were all gonna be extinct for a long time and not have a chance to rebound back but it looks like they are gonna have a chance to rebound back now that they're not extinct and the EA didn't update the price ranges like in the dead of night before all of the listings could come through. They updated these while the EU was still technically awake. So I think that these cards will kind of drop overnight. They will reach a point where they get pretty low and the ones that are the most meta, if we look at a team last week, right? Mertens bounced a lot last week. Laporte, Llorente, Kane, Douglas Costa and 9 goalin and even Ocampos were the biggest movers from that Friday night into Saturday rise. So this week timeframe I would probably expect guys like Van Anholt possibly to share for sure. It was one of the most hyped up cards.  I'm gonna be staying away from these cards in all honestly, because they're so overpriced. They might be good to flip with. If you wanna get a little bit ballsy, a little bit risky, they might be good to flip with. But what I would say is, stick to some of these players, man, some of the other out-of-packs golds, like even this Joe Gomez today at the content drop was getting panic listed at 130,000 coins. And this is something we do on every single promo Friday is we look for a panic like this. There was a little bit of panic earlier today which I was able to capitalize on. I bought these Kimmiches last night at 130, sold them at a decent amount. But this is what I wanna focus on. I bought two Firmino's today and I'm gonna show you his graph in a second. Out-of-packs informs that get panic sold leading up or in the first hour or two after a new content drop is one of the best ways to make coins in a short-term flipping scenario on a Friday that is a promo Friday. This Firmino I bought at 228,000 coins. I was looking on foot bin for cards that were low and checked this out. Firmino was 254, right before the content drop, couple hours after he's down to 228,000 coins, rebounded right back up to 249,250. So I snatched two of these at 228 and now he is back up to 250. So that was a G, freaking G right there. There was other cards that did that today but if you kind of think of it this way, a lot of the gold cards, right, that are in-packs right now, they went down today with pack supply, right? And are they gonna bounce back? Possibly. But a lot of people who have already bought these cards for their weekly teams, they didn't really panic sell them today. If a card like Firmino is going down, he is out of packs and that means his price dropping means people are just selling his card. He's so much more rare than a gold card on the market and he's not getting supplied with packs being opened that this makes a perfect opportunity to buy this card especially when we have new Brazilian players he might be trying to link to, Tlisca, SBC, Polinho, team of the week and this new Alex Tashira striker card. This would be a player that, I'm not surprised he rebounded right back because he's Brazilian, right? He links to those guys and provides a nice little Brazilian link for maybe a Tlisca, Polinho and Tashira that you would maybe run into the rest of your Premier League team. So that's why I was super duper psyched about buying this card today at 228. I would have bought more but I had no more coins because I was flipping some other things as well. I did buy some Polinhos and there's my other Firmino. I did buy a Zaha today trying to do some quick flips on team of the week into the night, hopefully they rise up a little bit. I bought some Bruno's because these were at 100K flat, 105 and he's bounced back up to like 115 or so. That's a high rated enough gold card that I do think you will rise back up. And then I did buy this Laporte today when I saw Pogba get released in the team. He has gone from about 475,000 coins all the way up over 500K and I think he probably goes a little bit more into the night. So I'm gonna try to get this out maybe like 527 or so overnight tonight. But there was some money to be made today, right? There was a lot of icons that dropped low today. And of course, some of these players are hard to link up with their nationalities like O'Para who is honestly, I think really cheap. Rule breakers O'Para is like, what? Is he like 40 or something thousand coins? Like it's really cheap, this guy but it's really hard to link in. And I think that's why he's so cheap.  So into the day today on Saturday I'd just be a little bit careful if you have a lot of players like this in your team. I don't think we're getting a week in the extension for the short amount of time that the servers were messed up today. So I would expect to see maybe a few of these golds rise up a little bit into the day today on Saturday. But then after that they're gonna tail off week in the excel office gonna start happening and you're gonna see these prices dip back down into the night on Saturday. Now if you're gonna use any of these cars just be careful with them, their price is gonna be fluctuating a lot. And if you have out of packs informs like this Rashford Flu today, Sanchez was at 160 he's bounced back up a little bit. I'm watching this Zaha because I think he might go back to like 255 overnight. I'm hoping he goes there. Some of these out of packs informs like same maximum is really high right now. I would try to cash this stuff out as early into the midday on Saturday today if you could just to maybe save yourself some coins because we can make sell off. It happens quick, it happens fast and it's gonna happen fast again this weekend as well. So today's content for Saturday I would expect another player SBC just because it looks like the past two promo weeks they've been doing an SBC the first two days of the promo back to back. Last week we've got Malong on Saturday I believe and then we also had Anaki Williams first day. So I would expect another player SBC today for rule breakers team number two and of course some promo packs as well.  There's people that are getting market ban. So be careful out there boys if you're using extensions I don't recommend doing that or if you're using the if you're having to solve captions be very, very careful. All right, very, very careful if you're having to solve captions. So that's video for today boys again if you did enjoy it thumbs up comment down below if you have any questions and subscribe to the channel if you're new it's been Nate the foot account and catch you guys later peace out.


Mother, why did daddy switch to Post-Em? Your father says there's no caffeine in Post-Em, nothing to spoil your sleep, and your father knows best. Yes, it's Father Knows Best transcribed in Hollywood starring Robert Young as father. A half hour visit with your neighbors, the Andersons, brought to you by Instant Post-Em, the good tasting drink that's entirely caffeine free and by Post's 40% brand flakes, America's largest selling brand flakes. There's something about cog wheels, levers, gears, and springs that holds a certain fascination for the male species. The feminine faction, however, is not so enraptured, especially when the aforementioned cog wheels, levers, gears, and springs are spread all over the dining room table. And that's the way it is with the Andersons as we check in on a Saturday morning at the White Frame House on Maple Street, like this. Jim, you have a perfectly good workbench out in the garage. Why don't you repair the clock out there? Margaret, I'll be through here in just a minute. You've been saying that for the last two hours. But I can use your help here. Okay. Now hand me those tools as I need them. Uh, screwdriver. Okay, here you are. Now, pliers, tweezers, forceps, scalpel. All right, bud. Cut it out. This is nerve-wracking work. Oh, gosh, Dad, this whole thing sounds like an operation. Yes, and I'm afraid the patient isn't going to make it. Jim, those old clocks require a special skill. When mother and dad had the clock, they always took it to- Margaret, please, I've just about got it licked. Say, Mommy, what's all this junk on the table? Sh, Kathy, there's a genius at work. Now, see this spring here, bud? All I have to do is coil it up good and tight like this. Now, as I hold the spring with the pliers, I want you, bud, to open the little door in back of the clock. Okay, there you are. That's it. Now, I gently slip the coil spring inside, like this. Easy. Easy. No. That's what I call making time fly. Very funny. Now, help me pick up the parts. Jim, Mr. Timkins, the jeweler, specializes in clocks like this.  I'll fix the clock. Yes, dear. Dad, since you're having such a tough time with the spring, why don't you put that in first and work around it? Well, yes. I guess I could do that. Where is the spring? The last time I saw it, it was flying over the bookcase and heading south. Oh, bring it here, kitten. Thank you. Now, the important thing is to get the spring coil good and tight. There we are. Now, bud, open the back of the clock again. Okay. All right. Now, this is more like it. Now, I set the spring in like this. Just a little more. A little more. Mother, guess what? Oh, Betty, do you have to bust into the house like that? What's wrong, Father? Now, where did that spring go? It set a new record, Dad. It landed on the mantle. Oh, it was delirious. All of us girls went down to the train and met Ronnie. Ronnie? Ronnie who? Ronnie Kelso, the singer. He's only the rage of the whole country. Father, don't you keep up on anything? Not the important things. You mean the goon, the croons? Quiet, Junior. And Mother, while we were down at the depot, Ronnie's publicity man came over and said that Ronnie wanted to invite one of us girls to have lunch with him. And because I have a bigger collection of Ronnie's records than the rest of the girls, they chose me. Isn't that dreamy? I'd say you were very fortunate. Am I? Father, did you hear what I said? Yes, I heard what you said. Kathy, hand me the screwdriver.  Your daughter is having lunch with the most popular singer in the country. Am I to assume that this is the same fellow whose record you play all the time up in your room? That's right. I question his popularity. Now you're taking an old, foggy attitude. What? If you were 16 or 17, his voice would do something to you. It has done something to me, and I don't like it. No one in this world, but no one sings like Ronnie Kelso. There's something about him, the way he sighs when he croons.   But that's enough. You should hear him. He pants like a Saint Bernard when he sings. I love you. Brother. Oh, how awful. You aren't kidding. Where's that cogwheel that was here? Here it is, Daddy. Oh, thanks. Oh, it's probably for me. Hello. Oh, hi, Ralph. No, I'm sorry. Ralph, I won't be able to see you this afternoon. I have a very important engagement with, well, with someone. No, it's not him. It's Ronnie Kelso. Well, it is. I'm meeting him in front of the Olympic Hotel at one o'clock, and he's taking me to lunch, so there.  The only reason I was attracted to Ronnie is because he reminds me of you. The same mannerism, the same kind of personality, and you look quite a bit alike. If I was Ralph, I'd see my lawyer. Certainly I remember, Ralph. We have a roller skating date for this evening. See you then. Goodbye. Mother, can I wear your pearl appell pen? Well... Oh, please, Mother, I must look my best for Ronnie. I guess so. Have you something to go with it? Let's see. Oh, I know. I'll call Janie. Now, don't start borrowing a lot of things. Oh, she'll be utterly thrilled to have her bracelet meet Ronnie. Hello, Janie. Betty.  What? Yes, I know. I can't believe it myself. There, I'll be eating lunch and across the table looking at me with those soulful eyes will be Ronnie. What a way to get into gestion. But... Oh, Janie, Mother's letting me wear her pearl appell pen and I was wondering if I could borrow that new bracelet of yours. Oh, thanks a lot. Ruth's letting me wear that cute blouse of hers and Doris is letting me have her black velvet purse. Margaret. Yes, Jim? Doesn't that daughter of ours wear anything that belongs to her? Yes, all the girls do this. But it sounds like she's being clothed through the courtesy of the community. Well, Agnes offered me her plaid skirt If she lost her friends, she'd freeze to death. All right, Janie. And don't worry, I'll let you know about everything that goes on. Goodbye. Well, I better get upstairs and start to get ready. Yes, you haven't got much time. Yes, dear? Where are those bobby pins you bought the other day? They're on my dresser. Thanks. Well, I'm glad to hear that we're contributing something to this moment. Now, with all the excitement having subsided, maybe I can get this clock in order.  This? Yes, give it to me. But, Daddy. Would you please hand it over? OK. Thank you. I'm having enough trouble without you holding out parts on me. Let's see. It should go right here. No. Maybe it slips over this little bar. No. That's funny. This disk doesn't seem to fit any place. Maybe it's because it's a wheel off the wheel.  Jim, why don't you take the clock down to Mr. Timkins? Mother! Yes, Betty? What happened to this picture of Ronnie I have hanging on my wall? Something wrong? It's... Bud, do you know anything about it? Me? I never go into her stale room. Kathy? Yes, Mother? Do you know anything about Ronnie's picture? Well... Come on. Well, Patty, do you know anything about Ronnie's picture? Come on. Well, Patty, Davis, and I were playing darts, and we needed the target. Kathleen, you didn't! Ronnie's turned up nose made a peachy bullseye. Anything, Betty? Don't worry. She'll be home as soon as she gets fed up with Loverboy Kelso. Shouldn't take long. Margaret, can I borrow your nail file? My nail file? I think you'll find it in the... Jim, you aren't back to fooling with that clock again. I thought you gave that up hours ago. I did. But as I was getting ready to take it down to the jewelers, I happened to notice something. See this notch on this lever here? Yeah. Well, that's where the spring is supposed to be anchored, and it'll keep it from flying out. Uh-huh. Margaret, you seem to doubt me. No, but I wouldn't start repairing it until I put on Bud's catcher's mask. They're getting worse than the kids. Look, I've got the spring all coiled up, and I just set it in place. Like that. See there? Perfect. Stand back, Jim. That was merely the spring settling in place. Believe me, Margaret, I've solved it. All the parts are in order. Proud of me. I'm proud of you, dear. And I could never have done it without your helpful words of discouragement. Oh, Jim, I'm not that bad. Ah, here comes our illustrious daughter now. How did you make out, Betty? Please, Father, it's not Betty. From now on, it's Beth. Beth? That's what Ronnie calls me. Oh, so that's it. As Ronnie said, a girl of my sophistication and cosmopolitan quality should only be known as Beth. Betty is far too pedestrian. Uh, how was the lunch, dear? I wouldn't know, Mother. I couldn't eat. Don't tell me he was that bad. In Ronnie's presence, material things seem so unimportant. I'd say you were slightly taken by the gentleman. Mother, I want you and Father to be the first to know from now on, it's Ronnie and I. Oh, now, Betty. I know. You'll say I've gone off the deep end.   In the first place, he's too old for you. He's not old. He's just more mature. And a little prematurely gray. But, Betty, this is only the first time you've met him. And it was just a luncheon date. Yes, but before the lunch was over, Ronnie was holding my hand. I hope he let go long enough to pick up the check. Jim, please. And while he was holding my hand, the photographer took our picture for the whole world to see. Probably some publicity stunt. Publicity stunt. Father, you and your crass commercialism. That picture was taken to record the cherished moment when the paths of two lonely people entwined. Margaret, is this our daughter? Be patient, Jim. Be patient, she says. That's right, Mother.  Betty, you've got to be kidding. Father, one doesn't kid about such things. I'll get it. Bet speaking. Oh, hello, Ralph. What? No, I'm sorry, Ralph. I'll have to call off our date for tonight. Now, just a minute, young lady. Ralph, I mustn't see you tonight or ever. It wouldn't be fair to Ronnie. Betty, give me that phone. Yes, I know we were supposed to go roller skating, and the very thought of it depresses me. It's so juvenile, so immature. Betty? If you'd like to drop by later, I'll explain everything. Goodbye. Betty, this silly business has gone far enough. Ralph is a bird brain, but you did make a date with him for tonight, and you're going to keep it. I can't, Father. I mustn't. You get on that phone and call Ralph back. Don't you stamp your foot at me, young lady. Now, you call Ralph right this minute. I won't, I won't, I won't. Oh, fine. Now, Bet, you can get a sack and help me gather up the clock. Looks like Jim's clock was really fixed this time. But speaking of clocks, how about time-out for Ed Prentice? He has some mighty good advice for you, especially if you haven't been in tick-tock condition lately. Ed? Say, friend, how have you been feeling these days? Have you been sort of jittery on edge? Well, it could be the caffeine in your coffee or tea that's been bothering you, stealing your sleep and making you nervous. I know because caffeine bothered me plenty until I switched to post-em. Good old instant post-em. Why don't you make the switch yourself? Believe you me, post-em really works. It ought to, it's absolutely caffeine-free. Contains no caffeine. None whatsoever. So you see, instant post-em is a good hot drink you can enjoy anytime without risking coffee nerves, without losing your sleep. Now, of course, caffeine doesn't bother everybody. Lots of folks can handle it okay. But if it troubles you, just make that simple, easy switch post-em. Try post-em for 30 days. Why not? See if you're not sleeping better, looking and feeling better too. Thanks to instant post-em. Oh, and say, the kids will like post-em too and of course you can give them post-em often because there's nothing in post-em to harm them. Yes, sir? Post-em's the drink for the whole family. Get a jar tomorrow. Poets, songwriters, romanticists in general from the beginning of time have asked the question, what should we call love? Up to now, no satisfactory answer has been recorded. However, Betty Anderson, alias, Bette Anderson, after a two-hour luncheon date with Ronnie Kelso, the popular singer, feels she has experienced the real thing. Jim feels that it's merely a question of Ronnie Itis and should disappear about seven o'clock this evening. As for Bud and Kathy, they just stand around the kitchen and ask questions, like this. Mom, what's wrong with Betty? Nothing, Bud. Nothing at all. But there's got to be something wrong. She looks like a dying calf. Well, if you must know, she thinks she's in love with Ronnie Kelso. Oh, no, not that. It's nothing but a crush. A crush? She looks like she's been pulverized. Never mind, Bud. Let's just drop it. Well, I go through that when I'm Betty's age, Mommy. I imagine you will, dear. I sure hope not. It's not so bad. But by the look on her face, it must be awful painful. Someday love will come to you, Kathy, and when it does, you'll know it. It'll be the most beautiful thing that has ever happened to you. You'll meet a man who you'll think is the most wonderful person in all the world. I will. And this man will have the same interest that you do. You mean he'll like bullfrogs and tadpoles? Kathy. Yes, Mother. I think we can postpone our little discussion until a later date. Say, uh, about 1960. Oh, Margaret. Look. Jim, the clock. It's all in one piece. Yes, it's all fixed. Daddy. Yes, kitten. Mommy says that when I'm Betty's age, I might fall in love or have a crush on a fellow. I hope not. Jim, let's not be bitter. Believe me, Margaret, I couldn't go through this again. Well, it's going to happen to Kathy, so you might as well accept it. Well, maybe when Kathy's Betty's age, there'll be a vaccine we can give her to prevent it. No, Jim. Have you seen Betty recently? I saw her just before she went up to her room. What a sight.  She looks like the ad. Don't let this happen to you. I just hope she comes out of it. She better come out of it. If she doesn't keep that date with Ralph like she promised, there's going to be some fireworks around here. Want me to get the hairbrush, Daddy? I'll get it. Hello? It's for you, bet. No, it's not the tonsil. It's Janie. Who was it, bud? Janie. She probably wants to get all the dirt on what happened at lunch today. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I think I'll sneak in and listen. Kathy, you be careful. What time is it there by the clock on the stove? I want to set this clock here. So you finally got it fake. I most certainly did. And I trust that my perseverance and stick-to-itiveness will prove an object lesson to the scorners around here. What time did you say it was? Four o'clock, straight up. All right, I'll set it for exactly four o'clock. There. Bud, get me the screwdriver off the dining room table. Jim, don't you dare take that clock apart again. What if we're adding on a couple of bongs every time the clock strikes? At midnight, it'll be 14 o'clock. Maybe I wound it a little more. It isn't ticking, Jim. All right, you win. I'll take it over to the jewelers Monday on my way to work. Daddy, guess what? Betty is going to Cincinnati.  No, really. I just heard her tell Janie on the phone she's going next Saturday. It's something about Ronnie. Margaret, I detest eavesdropping, but this should be very enlightening. Very enlightening. You kids stay here. Be quiet now. Yes. Oh, you're right, Janie. No. No, of course. Uh-huh. Uh-huh. No. No. Very enlightening, Jim. Quiet, Margaret. Well, you see, Janie, my plans are to... Listen now, Margaret. Uh-huh. Of course. Yes. Yes. No.  No, I haven't told the folks yet. I want to break it to them gently. Father, oh, he'll hit the ceiling and probably stay there for three or four days. Yes, it's so hard to make him understand. Of course, when you get up in years like that... Margaret, I'm going to... All right, Janie, keep your fingers crossed for me. Bye. Margaret, walk in as if nothing is wrong. Uh, hi, Bat. Oh, hello, Father. What's new? Nothing. Excuse me, I have to be getting up to my room. What do you hear from Cincinnati? Father, you mean you overheard my conversation? Yes, I was up on the ceiling listening in. Betty, what is this Cincinnati business? Please, I have to get up to my room. You stay right here, young lady. We're going to get this straightened out once and for all. You won't get angry. There'll be no guarantee. Well, next Saturday, Ronnie's opening at the Capitol Theater in Cincinnati. And you're planning on being there? Yes, I thought I'd buzz back. You'll be buzzing, young lady, but it won't be to Cincinnati. Oh, but I must. Ronnie's counting on me. He gave me a ticket to the theater, and my presence will mean so much to his performance. You aren't going, and that's final. But, Father... The discussion is over. I'm sorry, Father, but I'm going if I have to run away to do it. Well... Margaret, this situation has to be met head-on. Head-on? Seems like we've already had quite a collision. When did Betty say this Ronnie was staying? At the Olympic Hotel. But, Jim, you wouldn't. I wouldn't? Nobody's going to lead my daughter on like this. But Jim, he's a celebrity. I doubt if you could get in to see him. I'll get in to see him. Don't worry. Where's my hat? Over there on the table. But, Jim, please don't lose your head. Relax, Margaret. I know what I'm doing. I'll see you in a little while. Jim, you can't go downtown in your bedroom slippers. Oh, well, where are my shoes? Under the chair there. I got them. I'm going to set this pipsqueak right if it's the last thing I do. But, Jim, I don't like it when you get all steamed up like this and go off on a tangent. Margaret, don't worry about me.  See you later. Yes? You've got your shoes on the wrong feet. Oh, don't tell me, Mother. He actually went down to the hotel. Yes, he's been gone for some time now. Oh, this is humiliating. I suppose he went down to try and break up our romance. Yes, and the way he stormed out of here, I hope that's all he breaks up. Well, I have no fears. Anything that Father says will have no effect on Ronnie and me. Our bond is too strong. Betty, I only wish that... He's, Mother. Bet. Sorry. Bet, I only wish that you would understand that... Wait a minute. What, Mother? Your father's coming up the walk and he has someone with him. Oh, Mother, I'm afraid. Stay here, Betty. It's better to face it now. Step right in. Margaret, Bet, I'd like you to meet someone. This is Gladys Kelso. Hi, Bet. Gladys Kelso? You mean you're Ronnie Kelso's wife? No, I'm afraid not. Thank goodness. I'm his daughter. That's right. And he'd kill me if he knew I sneaked out of the hotel room. But, but Ronnie seemed like... Is he old enough to have a daughter my age? Is he old enough? You should see him when he gets out of bed in the morning. Oh, Brother, you think women have beauty aids? He practically retreads his face. Please, I don't want to hear anymore. Now, don't think I'm being disrespectful. Pop's really a grand guy. The only time he gets mad at me is when I make him take his vitamin pills. All right, so he is a little older than I am. A little? Wait, I'll tell you what happened in Seattle.  That's when he got burned up at me. What happened, Gladys? I threw down his whole toupee. I threw down his whole toupee. I threw down his whole toupee. I threw down his whole toupee. I'm not amused in the least. Don't take it so hard, kid. So he did hold your hand at lunch. Well, then you heard about it? Sis, he's held girls' hands from here to Albuquerque. It's all a part of the game. Well, what about the theater ticket? Oh, for the opening in Cincinnati? Hundreds of girls got tickets. That way, we're sure of a smash opening. Remember, kid, a crooner is only as good as a squeals he gets. I'll see who it is. It's Ralph Betts. It's Ralph Betts. It's Ralph Betts. I don't want to see Ralph. I don't want to see anybody. Now, just a minute. Betty, you promised Ralph you... Say, that Ralph looks like a real dreamboat. Betty, come back here. Say, I was just thinking, I'm going to be stuck in town tonight, Betty. If you don't want Ralph, I... Why, yes, Gladys. I think Betty would be glad to introduce you to Ralph. I'll be right out, Ralph. Uh, going to keep your date, Bet? From now on, it isn't Bet. It's Betty, plain and simple. Yes, and at times, how simple can you get? You know, that little melody reminds me that life is swell when you keep well. And I hope it makes you think of the new post 40% brand flakes, because as it says, they're good and so good for you. I mean that because something wonderful has happened to brand. The new post 40% brand flakes have a delicious new flavor, a magic oven flavor that many people like better than any other cereal. Yet they still give you the important keep regular benefits that only a brand cereal can offer. So, tomorrow or Saturday, when you go shopping, take home new post 40% brand flakes. America's largest selling brand flakes. They're so good. And so good for you. It's later in the evening at the White Frame House on Maple Street. And at the moment, it appears that a state of normalcy is set in. Betty is out on her date with Ralph, but is at the show and Margaret is dancing in the front room. The only thing to upset the calm is Kathy, who is trying to amuse herself with her toy airplane. Like this. Daddy, watch this three-point landing. Kathy, be careful with that airplane in here. Oh, Jim, these are precious. What are you looking at? I was just thumbing through this old album. Look at these pictures, would you? Let's see. Say they are a riot. Ha, ha, ha.   Here she goes again.  Kathy, I told you not to fly that airplane in here. Hey, let her go. Kathy, that plane will crash into something as sure as... See there, it hit the clock. Kathy, if I've told you once, I've told you... Listen, listen. Well, what do you know? It's running. Father Knows Best, starring Robert Young as Jim Anderson. Until then, good night and good luck from the makers of Post's 40% brand flakes, America's largest selling brand flakes, and Instant Postom, the drink that's entirely caffeine free. In our cast were Ted Donaldson, his bud, Gene Vanderpile, Rhoda Williams, Helen Strom, and Mary Lee Robb. It comes in a red, white, and blue box. What is it? Hot post wheat meal. It has the picture of Roy Rogers on the package. What is it? It's packed full of whole wheat nourishment. What is it? It has a rich, delicious, nut-like flavor. What is it? Cooks in just three minutes. Another member of the famous Post family. What is it? It's the best hot cereal you ever ate. Hot post... Father Knows Best was transcribed in Hollywood and written by Paul West and Dick Conway. This is Bill Foreman speaking. Tonight, play Truth or Consequences on NBC.