ac yn ystod gyda'r cyfnod gredig sydd wedi'i argynnu cyfnodol, a'r cyfnodol yn ymgyrchol wedi'u gweithio, a wedi'i gweithio'r cyfnodol, a'r cyfnodol yn ymgyrchol ynglynethau ar yr ysgol, ac mae'r cyfnodol yn ystod cymdeithasol. A'r cyfnodol yn ymgyrchol, a'n mynd ymgyrchol. J Van Denne. Mae Dyblin ac Eirlin yn enw. Mae'n meddwl yr ysgol yn ymgyrchol ychydig ar gyfer y llyfr, Roeddwn i ddechrau mi roedden nhw ar y dda, felly mae'n amser oed ymdarganiad menud gyda'r Unedig. Llyrgrifaf, adegwch am yám erbyn mewn ymlaen, bwrth le conwyd ar yr Unedig Brydwyr ar gyfer yr unrhyw lyfr. a dyna fyddech chi'n dweud a gweithio'r cyffredin iawn a gweithio'r cyffredin iawn yn y cyffredin iawn.  Felly, ydi'r ffordd, mae'n ddiddordeb yn ddiddordeb? Mae'n ddiddordeb yn ddiddordeb, dyma'n ddiddordeb yn ddiddordeb yn y llai'r ymddangos. Ac mae'n ddiddordeb yn ddiddordeb yn ddiddordeb, it does tell you a bit about where we might be going. So voting leave was correlated with lower income, but more strongly than that, lower educational attainment. There was an age gap, older people much more likely to vote leave. There wasn't much in the way of a gender gap. Place did matter, less prosperous areas were more likely to vote leave, even controlling for the demographics and ethnicity mattered a bit. ddydd y rymhau i ei ddweud o unfrwm ar gwrdd, dypa i ni limch hynny o'r rymhau gwlad y widerfynodol yn gael i'w gweithio. A pheth ymrydol ei wneud o'r careturiadau i gael i hynny i meddwl arall y afetio deallu yn gweithio. So a dyma rhywbeth i mi yw mae, that of people who say they support the death penalty, three-quarters of them voted to leave of people who say they oppose the death penalty. Only one in five voted to leave. And this is quite interesting of course, because the death penalty is not an issue in British politics. No one really cares about it that much. But whether or not you say you support the death penalty is a sort of broader signifier of your social attitudes and values. That wider set of social attitudes and values is very strongly correlated with how you voted in the Brexit referendum. The vote genuinely represented a sort of cultural, geographical, and to some extent economic split in the UK. Why does that matter? I think it matters to where we are going, both in terms of Brexit and as a country and a whole, for a number of reasons. The first of all is that values do appear to trump economic interests. Even if the values, obviously... Nothing here is completely exogenous, yn chlasalu llwith Cheese with people's values and their economic situation runs both ways, there are a couple of very good articles by Martin Sandboo and the FT over the last couple of days on this which I would highly recommend to people that are further interested in this difficult set of issues. I think what it does mean is that this Pro Brexit political coalition isn't going to be swayed very much by the fact that banks are saying that they are going to move their head offices to Dublin or Frankfurt. or Frankfurt. That is not going to change the minds of many people who voted to leave. So some, at least of the economic consequences that you see from the other side of the IRC or our partners from the other side of the channel and say, ha, the Brits are now realising just what a stupid idea this was. That isn't going to resonate with that many people who voted leave. It's going to take more than that. And it means that we are largely boxed in at the moment, at least, to some of our key red lines on free movement and sovereignty, or at least that is how it is perceived. So I think that, and I'll try and nuance this a bit later on perhaps in questions, that at the moment the prospect for reversing where we're going, reversing the trajectory that we're on, looks bleak unless we get a severe and widespread economic downturn. So I don't mean just investment decisions being held up or some companies or institutions relocating their head offices, but a more widespread economic downturn in the next 18 months. And at the moment that is not happening. It may happen, but it's not happening yet. So all that, I think, stepping back means that the most likely outcome, not, as I say, I wouldn't bet on my predictions or anyone else's, but the most likely outcome still seems to me that we have some form of hard or possibly chaotic Brexit. I'll say what I mean by those later on. So what can we say about the economics? First of all, very briefly, and this will come as no surprise to an Irish audience, I suspect, although it doesn't always go down that way with some British audiences, that EU membership was good for the UK. We know that. That is pretty solidly established in the economic literature, and you get estimates of an 8% to 10% boost to GDP or GDP per capita or productivity for the standard reasons. But I do think it's important for economists to emphasise that these things are not symmetric and the fact that EU membership was good for the UK by a reasonably, by an amount that we can reasonably quantify does not mean that leaving the UK, the EU will be bad for the UK. It certainly doesn't mean that you can take the quantitative estimates that we have of the impact of joining and translate those into negatives from leaving. And if you look under the skin of some of the econometric estimates that I'll talk about later, that is sort of what they're doing, and therefore in my view they do need to be treated with a grain of salt. And what we can say is that the economic impact so far has been actually quite small, and what economic impact we have seen has come pretty much exclusively through the fall in the exchange rate. So we know the fall in the exchange rate has boosted inflation that's reduced real wages and to some extent real domestic demand. That's all sort of standard macro stuff. But in a sense that doesn't tell you that much about Brexit because the pound goes up and down all the time. It's a large fall in the exchange rate, but it's not an unprecedentedly large fall in the exchange rate, and it might have happened for some other reason anyway. So it doesn't tell you that much, whereas the more Brexit specific impacts that were talked about in the run-up, in particular the impact of uncertainty on business and consumer confidence, and hence on both investment and consumption, those impacts have not yet been visible in the data. So far apart from the exchange rate impacts it's actually quite difficult to see any impact of Brexit. Now that is projected to change. I won't go through any detail, but this is just the IMF projections. But the key point here is that in 2015 we were at sort of the top of the, close to the top of the developed country growth league, and we are projected to fall back quite significantly, much more towards the bottom as the Eurozone does much better and we do significantly worse. But this is still not disaster right. 1.5% roughly growth in 2018 is mediocre, but then the UK economy again is no stranger to mediocre economic performance from time to time. So it would be hard to describe this if this turns out to be the case as the end of the world. Of course these things can change quite quickly, and it seems to me that there is at least some possibility that we will see a very abrupt reversal, that the uncertainty related impacts on business and consumer confidence which some people forecast, the Treasury in particular forecast as it being a direct result of the referendum, will materialise as a result of some breakdown in negotiations or some particular event on the timetable over the next 18 months. But as yet it has not happened. So what, where therefore could we be headed? There is a lot of talk in the UK about hard and soft Brexit and there is also a lot of talk because of the Prime Minister's phrase that no deal is better than a bad deal of what the implications of no deal would be. And I think this does get, does quite confusing. So we have tried, we and my colleagues in the UK and in China in Europe have tried to present a sort of taxonomy of the different types of outcome that might materialise over the next 18 months. And you can quarrel with some of these and there are perhaps some intermediate positions but I think this gives some idea of the possibilities. The first possibility is a chaotic Brexit where we have literally no article 50 deal. And I think we recently produced a publication which is on our website called The Cost of No Deal. And I have to say I went into it thinking when I and my colleague started looking at the different aspects and trying to write it as thinking well it's not, it's clearly going to be bad but it's not going to be disastrous. When people talk about planes stopping flying between Dublin and London or whatever or the electricity being cut off they surely are exaggerating. And I think what we concluded was that while that is, those things are probably, you can probably mitigate those impacts it actually would be pretty disastrous for the UK. Pretty bad for the rest of Europe frankly too but pretty disastrous for the UK. On my own particular area of immigration and free movement one thing which really strikes me which is not highlighted very much in the UK is that the day after on March 30 2019 if there is no article 50 deal the status of EU citizens in the UK will be sort of all right because UK law has incorporated the key provisions of relevant directives and those so UK law states EU citizens have the following rights and that will not change as a result of no deal. Now there will be all sorts of uncertainties and problems I want minimize the difficulties that these people will be in after no deal but there if you think about it that's nothing compared to what will happen to UK citizens on the continent Ireland of course is somewhat different because of the historical legacy but to UK citizens on the continent who are currently again Belgium domestic law says EU citizens have the following rights but on March 30 2019 under no deal UK citizens will not be EU citizens anymore. What will their rights be in Belgium? I genuinely don't know and my lawyer colleagues don't know either and I think that is really really frightening the idea that there are close to a million Brits who on the day after no deal would literally would they be illegal immigrants would they be working illegally technically quite possibly yes that is not something I think any British government should be willing to compliment. Second set of options Cliff Edge Brexit where we do get a deal on the article 50 issues but there's no deal on the future relationship and there is no transitional period so that's where we go straight in that is an orderly Brexit that nothing stops working but we immediately go to a full customs border full tariffs on WTO most favored nation terms and all the rest of it. Again pretty nasty from the point of view of the UK economy and not helpful from the point of view of the rest of Europe. The third which is where the government seems to be headed at the moment is hard what I described as a hard but orderly Brexit that is to say we have an article 50 deal and we have some agreement that at least for a transitional period not too much changes but there is only no or only a limited deal on our future relationship so that in that sense we still end up with a hard Brexit but it we do it in a much more orderly drawn out way that allows us to at least manage and mitigate the economic consequences and then finally you have a the softer version which is not on the agenda for the UK government at the time but then the UK government that we have now may not be here in in three or six or twelve months which is a much softer Brexit where we have an EA or an EA like relationship where we try and negotiate membership in either in the single market and the customs union either permanently or over a very extended transition or implementation period or or limbo period as you might call it but the fundamental problem here of course remains is that we don't know we the UK and indeed you know don't know collectively which sort of Brexit we want we genuinely don't we do not know whether we want a Nigel Farage Brexit a Liam Fox Brexit or a Keir Starmer or Philip Hammond Brexit to you know and what I mean by those is not so much the option to know but you know what's our vision of the UK's place in the world in 10 years the vision of a Farage Brexit is one of us reversing globalization shutting ourselves off to people but also to some extent to to the other aspects of globalization to the extent that we would have a key international relationship it would be be be with the US as a effectively a subsidiary of a Trump a Trump oriented America so that's the sort of Farage vision the Liam Fox vision is much more of a global Britain where we'll be freely trading with the world and we'll leave you parochial insular protectionist Europeans behind as we sail off and make deals with with the US but also with India China and and so on and then there's the the Keir Starmer and Philip Hammond version of Brexit which is basically that to the extent possible we keep things as we are now as they are now while leaving the political structures of the European Union but we recognize that our fundamentally our most important economic and trading relationship by far is with the EU 27 and that our priority must be to to preserve that at the same time is continuing as we always have done to trade with the rest of the world so this is a sort of not a status quo because leaving the EU in political terms means quite a lot obviously it's not the same but it is a lot closer to status quo than either two and frankly the point is that the UK has not made up its mind and you know we haven't had the debate between these versions of Brexit almost certainly there is no majority for any one of those versions of Brexit which obviously is quite a difficult problem in a you know if you're trying to think about how we get from where we are now to settling on one of them since there's no majority for any of them and we don't have clearly identified political parties identified with one or the other it's quite difficult to see how we resolve this particular set of dilemmas on to the economic impacts of these various various possible scenarios just to list the key aspects and I'll talk mostly about trade and migration because those are the ones where most work has been done and where I think which I think matter most and so on trade the key point obviously is that the impacts will depend both on the nature of our future trading relationship with the EU and also on what our trading relations with our countries are and this is something where we have a fair amount of evidence to go on regulation I think we can fairly safely say at the moment there is no great political will in the UK to make major changes to the regulatory environment if anything we are moving somewhat away from the current our current ultra flexible approach to labour market regulation for reasons which don't have that much to do with brexit it perhaps just a natural swing in the pendulum in the way the UK economy has evolved I think there is a degree of consensus that the relatively flexible labour market model that we had in in the early 2000s which worked pretty well then in my view is not working so well now and a bit of extra regulation is called for it won't be a huge change but if it but the the key point here is we're not going to leave and suddenly deregulate the labour market or remove the aspects of labour market regulation we have is not going to happen and similar similar things apply on environmental and other aspects of regulation budget contributions you know again this is macroeconomically not a big deal we will get some benefits from not paying in eventually but not in the short term and immigration what are the impacts of a likely sharp reduction in EU migration to the UK um so this just gives a summary of of of the um the credible estimates that are out there from from people using reasonably well established models um and I think that the I'm not going to describe these in details that I'd make two key points first of all that the the estimates range from down to you know a hit of two percent of GDP up to eight percent of GDP and that's quite a big range and it reflects I think the uncertainties I described before about trying to use historical data to project forward and I think it represents to my mind a sort of reasonable set of plausible bounds I do not see that it's likely that leaving the EU will do as much damage as we gain from joining the EU so I think excessive negative impacts of greater than eight to percent beyond you know outside a total chaos scenario don't seem to be plausible whereas on the other side two percent is is quite small and if you think about these are quite you know this is quite a range this is over 15 years or so so two percent head to GDP is maybe a tenth to percentage point off each year for 15 years well that's not good thing um obviously tenth to percentage point and compound growth rates matter you know um but it's hardly noticeable certainly not from a year to the year basis um at the other end of the spectrum eight percent is is um 0.3 um sorry is about half a percent off the growth rate each year that is quite a big deal and certainly compounded it is a very big deal but again it doesn't mean we're we become a poor country we're still growing on our most reasonable perspectives we're just we just notice our relative standard of living compared to you guys and the rest of Europe falling slightly farther and farther behind each year um so you end up with a the a view that you know leaving the EU will not be economically painless but it won't be economically cataclysmic either it will be something in between the you know sort of unpleasant but not but not too bad through to really rather nasty but not the not the end of the world and I think that to me is a sort of reasonable way of characterizing what the balance of possibilities are at the moment this would however we are talking about quite large impacts on trade so we're talking about reductions in total trade from most estimates of 20 to 30 percent so that is quite a big deal so although we don't use that much in growth we do see out the share of trade in GDP would become a much less open country in trading terms um and crucially I think this is very unlikely be compensated by increases in in third country trade plausible trade deals with again these are methodologically quite difficult and and you can quarrel with them but no one I think suggests that that the impact on total trade of any plausible free trade deals with other countries is going to be anywhere near enough to offset the negative impacts of of leaving the single market finally say a few words about my own recent research on immigration so this is a recent paper I published in the Oxford University of Economic Policy on the determinants of EU migration to the UK and I think two key points here one is that free movement in and of itself really does matter you really do see it in the data whichever way you cut the data free movement really really did lead to a large upsurge in migration from EU countries to the UK and there is every reason to believe that limitation that that major restrictions and or the reversal of free movement will lead to very large falls in immigration and this this assumes still that we retain a more liberal system in some sense than towards the EU than we do towards the rest of the world but that free movement itself ends um and you see quite large falls in net net inflows over the next five years or so and incidentally I should note that these estimates were made towards the end of 2016 based on data available then so far then we have already seen quite a significant fall in inflows broadly consistent with a sort of picture we're trying to paint here so I would argue that the data already supports this idea and this of course is even before free movement ends any changes are made to free movement and law and policy terms this is purely a result of some of the psychological and practical impacts of free movement in terms of what people think their future rights might be in in the UK as well as the broader economic developments in in the rest of the the the eurozone and we also try and this is much more speculative to project that through into what that might do to to to GDP and GDP per capita and again as I say these are highly uncertain sorts of numbers but you get implications for GDP which again are sort of on the unpleasant but not the end of the world end of the spectrum we will be as a result of leaving the EU and reducing migration we will may making ourselves somewhat poorer not disastrously poorer but somewhat poorer exactly how much very much remains to be seen so I'll just conclude on that say that you know I don't think we should assume that Brexit necessarily will be a disaster for the UK either in the short or the long term um but some of the more positive outcomes that you could paint in principle of what Brexit might look like um do seem to me to be quite implausible at least given the current political conjuncture in the UK that may change meanwhile the the short term impacts are almost impossible the forecast and will depend completely on what happens politically over the next year or so and what the the market and economic reaction is to those political events but there are obviously a number of potential tipping points but over the long term I think we can be reasonably clear that the UK is likely to be less open to trade and migration over the medium to long term as a result of Brexit and that will make us somewhat worse off that is that is a consequence of the decision we have taken we still have the power to to influence very much exactly how large those effects are and and and we will see we will get a much better idea over the 18 months over which of these possible trajectories that I've outlined we're going down


I thank you again for the invitation to speak here. This is a really fascinating debate for us as a company, and I wanted to start just by outlining just very briefly why does this matter for SAB Miller. I then wanted to look at one or two examples of how within our own industry the resource nexus plays out. I wanted to finish up with looking at some of the wider questions about the policy environment within which we as businesses operate. But firstly that question, why does this matter to a business like SAB Miller? Who are we for those of you who don't know us? We are one of the world's largest brewing companies. I was delighted with Carlson's example there about the brewing, and I think we'll come back on to that question of resource efficiency in brewing a little bit, very shortly. We operate across six continents, so it's a very large company now. But it emerged from the developing world, so the SAB and SAB Miller is South African breweries. That's where we started. And I think some people in the United States say, oh yes, you South African breweries, the ones that Miller took over. Actually it was kind of the other way round, which is an interesting story. We're now listed on the London Stock Exchange, a very large company, but we've built up all of our greatest strengths in terms of operations in what we call the Global South. So Sub-Saharan Africa in Latin America and in Asia are our heartlands and still remain that in terms of contribution to our business. And that's very interesting in terms of how the resource nexus plays out in those settings. But the starting point for this is beer itself. Beer is a very locally produced product. It's too heavy to be traded very much. It's too heavy to transport very far. So that gives us an interesting characteristic as a business or as a set of businesses. We are national businesses in each country. It's produced and consumed very locally. So not only our production facilities, but our customers and our suppliers tend to all be from the same communities or the same countries. And that gives a very interesting characteristic to a business like ours, because it means that you cannot in a sense trade your way out of problems. You've got to manage issues like the resource nexus locally in every setting. They are, to a certain extent, independent in each of the settings that we face. And, of course, each of those settings faces these different resource constraints in very, very different ways. So the constraints in a lush part of South America like Colombia, for example, very, very different from some of the constraints in some of the Sub-Saharan, the arid countries Sub-Saharan Africa that we also work in. So our success is very closely tied as well to the communities and the countries within which we operate. And that's the reason why I think people sometimes pose the idea that there's a kind of trade-off between shareholders' interests and the interests of the countries and communities within which you're operating. For us to thrive, the emerging economies in which we're based have to thrive. And for those countries to thrive, and for our businesses to thrive, we have to manage these long-term shared resources, like food production and water and energy production, in a way that works for us as a business over future decades, not just for a quick profit at all. Beer production, in a sense, plays out very neatly in a quite simplified way, some of these connections between food, water and energy. And I'll touch on those in some of the examples, just a few, how we're managing those. So the starting point is, of course, water for us. It's very interesting hearing Carl say that the whole environment debate five years ago was about climate change and energy. For us, of course, the starting point is water because beer requires large volumes of very good quality, stable supplies of water wherever we produce it. And that's true in rich countries near the rainforests of South America, as it is true of very arid countries, including Australia and parts of Sub-Saharan Africa. So securing our water supplies is clearly a fundamental business imperative. But you can't do that in isolation because of all those reasons that I pointed out about us being deeply rooted in the local communities and countries within which we operate. So that water, of course, is at least more vital for the communities that are our neighbours than it is even to us as a business. And managing that shared risk, those absolutely vital needs for fresh, safe drinking water, is really important to us. And I'll give just one or two examples of how we think about doing that, because I think those examples are important at a national level as well. On the energy side, again, it's obviously very closely linked, energy and water to us, because the more water we save in our processes, the more energy we save. If you think what brewing involves, it involves taking large volumes of water up almost to boiling point and then cooling them down to drinking point. And that involves huge amounts of energy. And the more water you use in the process, the more energy you're using. So for us as a business, those two are completely inseparable. And when we set targets for resource efficiency, those two things track each other very closely. And setting our engineers the tasks of reducing water use in terms of efficiency automatically drags down our carbon and energy use as well. So they are tied together for us as a business. But I think the whole interesting thing about the nexus debate in public policy is the realisation of the many ways in which at national levels in businesses for whom it's not so obvious. These are very closely linked together. And then, of course, food and agriculture. So we are a business that is based on agricultural raw materials as well as water. And then you think about the competition for land or the future use of land in a world as Carl has outlined of at least nine billion people. And we have to manage very carefully the use of that land because, again, ultimately beer is a very important product to us and to many people. But safe food, safe water is something that is going to trump our need for those resources unless we manage those trade-offs extremely carefully. So one of the ways that we're doing that is to begin sourcing increasingly locally, tied into our business model of being very local in terms of our production. And to think about therefore shifting the basis of some of the crops that we use. So brewing traditionally uses barley as its main grain for producing the alcohol within the beer. We've started, for example, in Mozambique looking at and effectively operationalising the use of cassava from thousands of small holders. So cassava is a root. It's like a sweet potato. It's a root that is pretty good for calories but not very nutritious beyond the calories that it offers. It's quite easily grown and there's often a surplus even in a country like Mozambique. But there's virtually no market for it until now because it goes to waste within about 24 hours of pulling it out of the ground. So we found ways of brewing beer using cassava instead of barley. And it's a good quality clear beer that we can sell at a slightly lower price because cassava is cheaper than barley is. But the beauty of this is it involves us with, I think, some 5,000 or so local small holders who become our suppliers of that. It's a local crop so it saves us from the currency risk of importing barley from elsewhere. It's a local crop that's adapted to local conditions so it's going to do better under climate change. It allows us to grow the livelihoods and the farming practices of those local small holders. But crucially, by giving a market to what was just a subsistence crop, we're enabling many of those small holders to have an income for the first time. And not just to have to grow cassava that's not that great as a set of nutrients and to start to diversify their diets. So with the money that they gain by selling us some of their cassava, they can start to diversify their families' diets so there can be a win-win there for a company that's using a food crop for brewing can actually increase the food security by increasing the livelihoods and incomes of those small holder families. I think those kind of win-wins are what we're going to have to increasingly look for as we face the increasing resource and population pressures that Carl outlined so clearly. So just briefly on just a few more examples of our responses. The first one is starting again with Carl's major point about resource efficiency. This is at the heart of our operations. And again, there's no charitable instinct here being frankly about it. Although there is a moral imperative and we need to get this right for the future of the planet, at the same time there's a very strong profit imperative for us in getting this right. For me that's a very helpful synchrony in the sense of where you have the profit motive aligned with the good of the planet. This is the way in which we release all the ingenuity and the creativity of our engineers. We have thousands of technical specialists, the people who know our brewing processes inside out, who much of their lives focuses on squeezing more out of less every year improving the efficiency of those operations because of course that improves their bottom line and they're rewarded accordingly. But this works for us particularly in terms of water efficiency because it improves the efficiency of those plants as well in terms of water use. So if I give you the example of Yatla brewery, this is in Australia. So a thirsty country Australia particularly for RBS. It's also quite a dry country and Yatla brewery which is in southeast Queensland is in a particularly water stressed area. Now the interesting thing about that is that very water stress has driven the ingenuity of our engineers there to unparallel heights frankly. So you remember Karl talked about a few years ago the typical brewing in Belgium required about 7 litres of water to produce 1 litre of beer. In Yatla the guys have got it down to 2.2 litres of water for every litre of beer and that's world class efficiency there. But of course that's in response to that very tight resource constraint. So it's quite interesting the price mechanism and the resource constraint mechanism work together to drive that ingenuity to new heights. But of course some of the learnings from that in a global business like ours can be transferred to other parts of the world. So we're seeking to drive down the efficiency in many other places through learning from what we've achieved in Yatla there. The other major point Karl touched on there which was of interest to us is that closed circular economy or closed loop production. And beer is interesting in a sense because just in its own right it's already quite a long way towards that and we're trying to push this all the way to being a form of closed loop production. So if you think about beer the major byproducts are things like yeast multipliers as you brew the beer. So we sell a lot of yeast onto food companies who can use that. The spent grain is sold on almost everywhere as animal feed. So those massive, those major components of our waste are things that have a value for us and we don't use the word waste. We have products, good quality beer and we have byproducts that we also sell and that give us profit. But that's an important part of the circular economy. Now to squeeze the last in some places 5% of the waste is what we're trying to squeeze out of the system. So in some places our breweries are 95% efficient. They only send 5% to waste. Getting that last 5% out is of course the most difficult challenge. So I visited our road brewery which is the largest brewery in the southern hemisphere. It's on the northern outskirts of Johannesburg. I was there in July. And one of the ways we've done that is to treat the effluent. So the organic waste that's coming out in liquid form that's not possible to sell on for cattle feed. We've started turning that into biogas. So South Africa is a classic case of a country that is resource rich in one area, energy, but that's through coal that we need to clearly reduce the use of coal there. But it's very, very water scarce. So the more you can purify and return water to the system, the better. Now to cut back our coal use in heating the water, we have developed a complete new biogas boiler at that huge brewery that's using the biogas that's generated from our organic liquid residues that comes out of the brewing process. So that's about 85% methane. And that's again gas that's a carbon greenhouse gas 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide. We use it for firing up the power generation element of that brewery there. And it's displaced a significant part of the coal that we used to use there. So that's a part of closed-loop production using what was waste to power our breweries there. I also visited in May, we have a one sugar plantation on the planet in Honduras called Azernosa. And I visited that as part of a certification programme that's using its environmental and social standards. And the most striking thing there is they produce about 72,000 tonnes of sugar a year, which is obviously its main purpose, but they're also effectively a power station. They produce 18 megawatts of clean energy for that country, Honduras' power supply, simply through the clean use as a fuel, a biofuel effectively, of what would be waste. So these are the off cuts from the sugar cane, the foliage that doesn't have much sugar in it, is used to generate clean power. And that's not biofuel that displaced food, that is biofuel from waste products, woody foliage waste products from sugar production there. So again, this is a sense in which we are increasingly getting to the point where I think we can start to think about the word waste itself as being a kind of quaint concept from the past. Increasingly, companies will come under the resource pressure, the prices of commodities rise, and we find new ways of generating value from waste. And that's how you realise that ultimate dream of a completely circular economy in closed-loop production. My final example is what I call managing shared risk. And I'll just give you a couple of stories, one from Bogota, one from Idaho, of how we're thinking about managing the shared risk of these shared resources that we share with the communities and countries in which we operate. And as I just tell these two brief stories, I'd like you to keep in the back of your minds the story you're almost certainly familiar with, the parable, if you like, of the tragedy of the commons. So I think you probably know this one. It started with the idea that on a shared common land where you have individual small farmers able to graze their cattle for free, there would inevitably over time evolve a tragedy in which even though it's in all of their interests collectively to manage that ground and to make sure it's still fertile and not to overuse it. For any one farmer, there's a huge incentive to keep putting more cattle on there in order to increase his or her productivity. And gradually each of those acting in isolation increases the number of cattle and you degrade the land and ultimately the land fails for everyone. So that old parable of the tragedy of the commons is something that's quite helpful in thinking about our shared resources both at national level and even globally. So just think how are we trying to tackle what's perceived as a paradox, the inability to get enough collaboration together to manage that risk of shared resources. Let me give a couple of examples. So Bogota, the capital of Colombia, we have a brewery there. We found a few years ago that our water price we were being charged by the Bogota water utility was going up substantially and that's obviously a problem for us just in terms of the bottom line. We went up discussions with the utility and found that that reflected a genuine increase in their costs that was being driven by increasing sediment coming down the river into Bogota that was making the water treatment facilities more expensive to manage. And where was that sediment coming from? It was coming from local farms, small holders, small farmers, mostly cattle farmers, further up the river that were increasingly clearing the forest and the foliage there, other vegetation, in order to expand what were quite, frankly, quite inefficient cattle farming up there. So this is a classic example of the water food dimension of the nexus and again there was a win-win here. So we got together with Nature Conservancy and the local government, and as SAV Miller we put up some money for a small water fund to support the start-up costs for some of those farmers in, frankly, one of the simplest interventions was buying better quality cattle and helping them improve the production processes. So they could generate more milk with fewer cattle and on less land. And just simple intervention that enabled them to generate more income through more efficient processes allowed them to clear less of the vegetation there. This allowed the water in the river to become less silted up. Over time it's extraordinary saving that was realised by the water authority there. So the water authority in Bogota saved four million US dollars a year out of that intervention. So clearly it's paid for itself and a significant part of that cost saving was passed on to us as a business there. So that's a classic win-win that worked in the short term. Frankly we do things like that even when there isn't an immediate cost saving because we as a business have to make sure that we have water not just for next year but we have water for 20, 30 years into the future. We're in this for the long game. So those kind of interventions where you solve a fundamental problem with the river shed are absolutely vital in terms of managing the shared risk, the risk we share in terms of water supply with the communities there. My final example was from Idaho. So a very different setting in the United States. And again this one is looking at the simple water energy nexus within our production processes. It started with getting our own house in order. So we developed a showcase barley farm in the Silver Creek Valley. Within two years we'd saved about 10 million hectorliters. I should have done the calculation in terms of Olympic swimming pools for you but it's an absolutely vast number. It's about 10 million large barrels of water were saved in two years there. The interesting thing there is that just the simple pumping of that water the saving of the pumping cuts the farm energy use by more than half. So that was an enormous saving for us as a business. But in terms of the cost of the energy was actually what we saved in terms of money there. Now again instead of just doing that as a business we've also tried to multiply that up with the local farmers there. So by supporting with relatively small amounts of cash injections just supporting the shift, the wholesale shift from flood irrigation to drip irrigation. Those farmers have saved about 75% of their water use. So again that's good for the farmers because we're all paying for water in these kind of settings. It's very vital for us because we depend on that water as much as the farmers depend on that water and unless we find win-win ways of dramatically reducing our collective water use and we do our bit in the brewery and the farmers are doing their bit with a small capital injection we've given them we're not going to be able to have enough water to go round for all of us. But just coming back to that example of the tragedy of the commons in a sense it shows ways that it's frankly the same as the old prisoner's dilemma story. But the prisoner's dilemma story is different from this because it involves no communication between the two prisoners that are in different rooms so they each do the worst thing for themselves under pressure from their interrogators. In this situation we can set up ways of collaborating, we can set up ways of communicating and therefore solving those problems. So let me finish just very briefly on the policy points. I think as Carl started with energy has often been seen as the ultimate constraint for many economies. For us as a business the water pops up as being the major one but they're very very closely connected as I suggested. I think the interesting thing for us is we can't solve all of those things by the kind of interventions on shared risk. We operate within national environments in which the policy is matter to us as well. So the political pressures to prioritise one dimension of the nexus such as energy production at the expense of the others are something that are very important for us to overcome I think. The final point on policy is that in almost every setting tough trade-offs are needed and many of those countries in which we operate have very fewer degrees of freedom than the richer countries in which many of us live. So if you think for example in sub-Saharan Africa you've only got one or two different choices in terms of some of your development pathways. We have many ways of managing those trade-offs and one of the important possible conclusions from some research that we're doing on policy on the nexus is that managing these trade-offs on as broad a geographical scale as possible can help to think about that. So if you think about Peru it's got desert on one side of the country it's got rainforest on the other. Manage nationally you're much better off than managing those separately. How can we get countries to collaborate in managing those trade-offs is a question I'll leave perhaps for the Q&A. Thank you for your time.


Let's get going. So today we're going to quickly cover defining content first design and then we're going to show you what content first design is through a few example projects we have on our learn site and then we're going to talk about starting a project content first. This content for this webinar is based off of some articles from again our learn site the balsamic wire framing academy. So you can check those out we will link to all of the content. On the webinar page wants to be released and so here's more we do these things called process behind interviews I recommend you checking them out you'll get some previews today. So what does content first design mean? It's actually really simple it's the content determines the layout or the design so I'll have Amelia Barnes one of the people I interviewed explain it because she does it much better than I do. You know you can explain it really simply content first design is you decide the content before you decide the design right and I think the simplest way to make a case for it is you just have to know what you want to say first before you decide how to say it so you can't say oh I know my book should have an orange cover until you know what your book is about and it's the same for our website right you can't say oh we're gonna put a big picture a big hero image because that's what's trendy right now well I mean maybe that works but maybe it doesn't work too you have to know what it is that you want to convey to people first and then everything else falls around it and that's that's the basic idea of content first design. I love that what I love the most is that she talks about what's trendy right now and I think that's really important to understand that your content you need to think past trends when you're designing something and you need to think about what you're trying to say and who you're trying to say it to first and then you can layer on your branding and your visual design so I thought that was great. One thing I wanted to call out is I feel like content design is having this moment right now and there's a lot of people working on content there's content designers it's a much more popular job but this idea that content first has been around for a very long time. Jeffrey Zeldman's tweet is from 2008 and I think it's just a reminder that this has been a thought for a long time and that writing and how you say what you want to say is more important than how you visually show it or you should consider it first because it's it's really important so what I want to do is design in the absence of content is not designs decoration I wanted to throw a visual example of that so I took a screen grab of YouTube you can tell I have younger kids because there's lots of you know YouTube YouTuber videos on it but I think this is a great example of showing content first and if you remove all the text you can still see it but it's a lot different so a lot of the screen is made up of content right and YouTube is actually a really interesting example because it's pretty well designed and you can still guide yourself around YouTube without words because their their text I'm sorry their icons and their images do a really good job but icons and images are content as well so if you remove all that it's really just a blank canvas and I think what I like in my mind what I think about is when we start a project because it's digital and it needs an engineer to build it it needs someone with a lot of technical skills to make it a real product we sort of forget you know that it has to be simple we need to start first with what we're trying to say before we think about any of that other stuff so we really visualize building things as this really complicated process and I intentionally left the iStock water mark on it because I thought it was funny just adds to the complexity but we really want to show this simplicity of we want it to make it feel like it you know an infant's toy or a toddler toy and that's through content so what do we mean by the content term determines the design is we start and we really just focus on what images and words do we need to convey our message and then after we decide on that we can work on tons of different types of layouts that fit that content so if you start a project content first and you feel like you have a lot to say about your product that's fine and write it all out gather all the images really work on that content and then start designing it and you know like here for content one and design one maybe it's got a really full website then and you have a lot of content there's a lot of stuff there maybe you don't want that what is great about starting content first is you can go back and edit down all of that content you already built you have content to here and then design number two and it's a much more simple minimalist website that they're probably going to be easier to use but if you didn't start content first you may be trying to cram content one into design two and it's just not going to work and it's going to be time consuming and kind of difficult all right so that's my little spiel about what content design is let's show some examples so we're going to kick it off by showing what I call system-based design versus people-based design and this is the project that Emily Barnes presented in her process interview where she worked for the United States government redesigning the finance campaign finance website for the federal election commission and what they started off with was a design that was focused on systems and what they ended up with through content first design was something focused on how people think about it so here's Emily so back when I worked for the government I worked on the digital transformation for the federal election commission which is the group that tracks how all money is raised and spent in federal elections so if you wanted to look up you know who donated to Hillary Clinton or how much money she raised like that is the organization that knows the answer to that and they have been doing open data since they were founded in the 70s which means that their website was a really early government website which also means that it is pretty outdated when we got to it and the way their content was organized was based on form so if you wanted to know how much money Hillary raised you needed to know which form that got reported on to the fec and they all had like numbers and nobody understood um how to find that information so even though the website content was organized in a way that completely made sense to the organization it was okay all of the like form c information is on the form c section there was no way to find out the information in a way that humans understood it which was what is Hillary Clinton doing um so when we approached that website you know we we've turned all the data into an api that was the most important thing right so we could access it in different ways at different times but we organized the content around the way people understood the content right so you could find things based on the candidate you were looking for or the person who donated that you wanted to find out what information they were doing and by starting with the content rather than the organization um or rather than our assumptions about what the content should be it made the website something that people could actually use i really love that it's i think it's such a great example and i think a lot of people um maybe here but i know a lot of people work in big large enterprise organizations where the design is determined by how the organization thinks about its own data in its own content um and if you come at it from a content first plus a user perspective a people perspective you're going to have a much better experience so i wanted to show a few screenshots from the original design they started with and if i wanted to look up this video the interview is before the last presidential election and so it was older candidates but you know if you want to look up what a specific candidate is doing now you are using the site you'd have to go to data catalog here and then you'd have to go into candidate disbursements and enter their name and then you get a listing you'd have to know all that stuff you'd have to really play around with the site and then through the content first and sort of people first lens they redesigned it to be like this and this is what's currently um what their site is like now so that using a content first design using a people first design they understood people want to either look up candidates and how much they're making or contributions from specific people and they broke it up they made it much easier to use and then they also redesigned um what a candidate's page looks like so that you can easily search their data they made it way that we would expect it to work so and if you're working in a large organization remember that your mental model of your data is probably not going to match what your user's mental model is so if you want to start content first or work content first you have to understand the organization system and also understand your customer's perspective and then redesign it so the content and design is focused on how the user is expected to to present it all right let's talk about redesigning an application this is a more recent interview that I did with a content designer from Mozilla who worked on the totally new redesigned UI refresh of the Firefox browser um and it's an awesome project and I'll have Betsy kick it off so the project is based on read the project example is based on the application menu that she redesigned with her team and I'll have her talk about how she started the project so our first kind of step is to gather data to make some decisions we know what our menu is and I kind of reference this early in the interview of how we want to kind of go on that detective finding mission and start gathering some data see if previous user research has been conducted talk to people the organization who are really familiar with this this feature or aspects of this feature that we can use to inform our decisions so I love that um as you can tell from pretty much any design project it always starts with research and content design is no different she supplied us with this great image and it kind of showed off what they learned from their you know research background context building earlier in her interview she talks about leveraging institutional knowledge and trying to understand why it is the way it is now so that you can have a better understanding of what why what was decided on and what you can do to move forward um this next clip talks about their content first approach and how they move forward after they gain gain all that knowledge as far as the content design process what is the first thing that we do um if you have worked with a content designer before you will not be surprised to learn that we love a good table we love a good spreadsheet Billy's laughing well I might put a question on you Billy why do you think that is I think it's just easy to organize information yeah we do love a good table and although the tables are the use the use of them is like you said to organize information I alluded to earlier how we had this menu that had a lot of different items in different places where should we put things where goes what where do things go um and we actually got this really good guidance from I'm going to do another shout out here to um our senior design manager Michelle who has been in the content strategy field much longer than I have and when you are looking at a daunting task in front of you how am I going to organize all this content where do things go I know I know that it isn't right I don't know how to fix it instead of trying to fix it she advised that we take a step back and just start grouping like items together it's simple like anyone can do that right and it kind of helps you take some baby steps into how you're going to solve it eventually so the table yes it could be overwhelming and depending on the size of the project sometimes they do get really big and these spreadsheets have multiple tabs and oh my gosh um but if you can start organizing the information you can start thinking through it and you can start getting ready to actually write we organize these what we call semantic groupings it's a little bit of jargon insider content lingo but essentially just means putting things that are similar together and just by grouping those in this table it started to help us see not even necessarily what we were going to keep or what we were going to move or what we were going to cut but what went with what and so that helped us move forward and how we were going to make decisions about how we were going to organize this menu I love that so I think that's such a great takeaway is that if you feel like doing this or if you're starting your your project content first you're doing a content audit the first thing you can do is take everything and try to group it to what makes sense logically you know as UX designers we do this a lot in card sorting it's the same type of thing you can do this with your users with whoever you know is the end user or people that work in your in your company and it could be something you do together but trying to understand what goes with what is a big will be a big help when you're trying to do a new design because you're already organizing it in a way that makes more sense so after semantic groupings this is what they work on. The design team at Firefox have started to incorporate wireframing in our process for several reasons and when I talk about wireframes I deliberately chose this screen to show you how low fidelity it is and how just kind of basic it is so we actually started doing wireframes in google slides we call them wire slides and this is literally just drawing boxes it is drawing rectangles lines so it wasn't too difficult nothing too fancy what wireframing helps us do is it helps us kind of move beyond that scary table stage and start organizing the information in the appropriate hierarchy and it's really low barrier to entry it's really easy to just start editing to start putting words in and to start thinking through how you're going to put you know where in this menu are we going to put certain items what we have found is that this really low fidelity wireframe process is also an excellent way to start getting alignment and to start bringing other people into your process so there's questions that come up a lot of when do you do stakeholder reviews how do you make sure that people are aligned in my response to that is as often and early as possible and if you can use a wireframe to align your team you're going to the next phases in visual design is is just going to go so much more smoothly because you already have the content set I love it I feel like she's promoting the process of wireframings for us because that's exactly how we feel here at balsamic also what I love is that this simple idea of using Google slides to make really simple wireframes that can be easily shared I love it her whole the way that she talked about it their whole process of you know doing some background research leveraging the institutional knowledge taking and all the data and then trying to group like things and then turning those into visual artifacts to then share with people and to get feedback I think it's a great process I did try to make a content or take data from a website and turn it into a excel sheet type image and this is what I came up with it's not great but you get the point all right let's move on to our next project redesigning a feature I really love this because it's just another approach to considering content first and I think this is something that will resonate with a lot of you know entrepreneurs and solopreneurs who work on these smaller projects so let's I'll do a little background this is about a product called lead honestly in an interview with the designer and the creator of it she how and how he is redesigning a specific feature and he will let us he'll talk about it there's a process of adding an employee to the product and we've gotten a lot of questions and feedback just of you know why is certain information asked why is this information not asked what's the experience for an employee I can't see that how do I know what that means and kind of just like getting an understanding like what all that is and so for for a while I just started engaging people and asking them what would you expect what would you like what's the optionality you'd be interested in trying to get a sense of like what that is and I've since started just redesigning that process of how to add an employee and yeah it also like it started in the simplest like like I was trying to like go like low fidelity to high fidelity in this process and I'd say in this scenario I started at like no fidelity like I mean I love that I just like it was literally all copy like I I just created a Google doc and was like let me write the copy for the interface let me and like let me stage it out like because there's basically there's three steps in a completion state right so it's like step one like we need to know the employee's name and email address great we got that cool and like in that there's also the option like do you want to send them a welcome email to like to lead honestly or not right because some people don't want to and they want to be able to invite their team members themselves and kind of engage a different way so I just like wrote out what that would look like step two is a little more comprehensive because it starts to say like all right one like when do you want to meet how often do you want to meet do you want to install like a Google calendar integration to put this on your calendar and if so what time do you want to meet what's the duration of the meeting right it's like that and then the last part is what playbook do you want what type of questions do you want to ask this team member there's a lot because then it's like well what's a playbook and what are the types of playbooks and what are sample questions from them things like that and I literally just put it on a google doc and went to those customers who had had like questions and said like give me feedback like what do you think I'm like literally hadn't even put like pencil to paper on any of it and just iterated on the copy to try and make it make more sense I really like that so here's the example of the word doc that he created and what I love is that he got like he said it sounded like a very complicated set of you know lots of different options lots of things that can happen lots of choices you have in the experience and all he did was make a google doc and sort of mimic very crudely what an interface would look like and then sent it to the same people that were asking him questions and and providing feedback to his product and said like is this better to does this make more sense and so he spent a lot of time just iterating in google docs and then went right to code and redesign the interface because he already had the product there he just needed to update it because he needed to change it based off of what people were needing from him and I thought it was such a really interesting process during his interview I think he had another great quote that I liked is that he always starts with words even if he's just sketching because you know content first the content really is going to influence the design and I think this is a really cool way that you can approach content first especially if you're tech savvy so you know take customer feedback and then make copy iterations with customers it works great if you have a mature product and you're getting that customer feedback and you have the ability to make the changes to the product and I think it's an awesome way to do this no fidelity design or content first design so here's another image of his product if you're interested I like to kind of contextualize what he's building so that was it for redesigns now let's talk about how you can start content first for a new project I think starting content first for a new project is similar to starting it just as any other project you want to start with some research some background information building that context and then once you start thinking about it you need to do stuff like site maps and user flows you need to know exactly what pages you want on your site you can debate this with your team and I'll come up with what pages do we need and then from there you know what content are we going to need if it's more of an app app based product or something that you need to do things on and not just sort of learn things you can build you know user flows this is an example that we have on our wireframes but if I'm going to you know pretend this is Instagram and I'm designing the change profile feature of my site I need to know all of those places that are going to need micro copy I want to make sure that the words I'm telling them throughout the experience of this process are going to help them along and be the best you know copy they can be so I can start here I can say I have seven different interactions I'm going to need success language I'm going to need error language I'm going to need confirmation language I want all of that to fit within our brand within our voice and be clear to the user the next thing you can do is something called a competitive analysis so really try to understand the what's going on and you know the field that you want to play in let's say what are other businesses doing already what messages there are they trying to communicate I actually made this Google sheets that Google sheet template that you can download in the content first article and it just a really simple way to capture what's going on what values are they communicating how are they writing like what ways are they expressing themselves what are their key differentiators or their features that they they promote and who's their audience who are they talking to can you really understand by how they're you know their language who's their audience is that match your audience this is another great way to do this I apologize for not having the supporting image of where I text where I got it from I'm going to add that before I make this a PDF for you guys but I thought this was great too this is another great easy way to do a competitive analysis so say I'm in I'm kayak here and I want to see what the other groups of business and regular travel companies are doing but I'm going to talk about what features they have but also add how I feel about them and that'll help me build sort of my positioning about how I want to build how I want to produce my work and how I want to write about it and you know if I understand that I don't like the way certain people talk about it will help me figure out ways I can talk about it better so the next thing you can do and I think this works really great with marketing based websites and like homepages and landing pages is something called content modeling I did not add a screenshot here but we have this as an article on our learn site and I think it's fantastic you should check it out what I really like about content modeling is it really reminds me of the wire framing process with visual design so content modeling is you start with really really broad topics and then you start filling in the fidelity of it as you understand it more so another great thing about content modeling is you can kind of think of it as like a brainstorming workshop or like a design a mini design sprint and you can get together with your whole team and kick it off so what you do is you start out by discussing the goals of the site or the project you know what are you trying what do you want the audience to come away with what are the must-haves from the business perspective and then what's the priorities and communicating all this to them what's the order of importance so you can use a whiteboard you can use post-it notes and to start writing out what do you want people to know what's the most important things and then after you have all these major content blocks you think need to be on your site organize them how you think they'll flow on the page but the next thing you should do and you shouldn't forget about this is try to then understand what your customer's perspective is what do they need to know what's going to help them move forward what's going to benefit them what is their perspective I like using these illustrations that we have on our learn site so I just added in there and that represents this so what you do is you take your idea of how the page should flow and then try to match up what you think the customer's perspective is side note you can also totally talk to your customers and get their perspective about what they want or what they need and then you you know just like try to match them up to what content blocks you have if you're starting to see information that is you think is more important to the customer move those blocks higher up on the page and then the next step is really simple you can block out the content in wireframes in whatever fidelity you want you know each of these is a wireframe and you can start writing more and more content if you're not comfortable um writing uh if you're not comfortable in the wireframing phase and you work better in like you know the google doc phase you can totally do that too take all those content blocks and start writing out every piece of content that you have on your page and then you can put a minute at the wireframe and that's all I have you know I just realized I did not have a recap slide so sorry but um that's it


In Exercise Dynamic Manta that we're hosting right now in the Central Mediterranean Sea, we're going to be practicing finding submarines using a task group consisting of ships, fixed wing aircraft, helicopters, and other submarines. Submarines have a wide variety of capabilities. The ability to launch missiles that can threaten our population centers, critical infrastructures, and our nations. So it's very important for NATO to understand where adversaries' submarines are. It's a very asymmetric problem. In other words, it often takes several assets just to track one submarine.


You know the demons are usually a little prettier than this But I I'm kind of feeling the cleft chin today if I'm honest I do like the the square jaw as well and for any of you guys that are wondering why I actually critique these videos is because you know these young somewhat attractive influencers are Getting our younger generation to follow these diets that are damaging their health You know are these people actually following these diets in their lives? I doubt it and if they are the only reason they still look like they're not completely falling apart is a genetic godsend So let's see how I eat a high protein and plant-based Did she forget the word diet? wait hold on How I eat a high protein she put the letter a in there Where she needed to either put diet or remove the letter a Full day of eating plus why I track all right well apparently it's not helping you spell, but let's see What kind of what kind of health and fitness content are you making on snapchat? I have a feeling that's the kind of content. I would be glad to pay for young lady 99.99% plant-based if you guys Didn't know and I eat pretty high protein and I'm gonna look like sustained shape So we'll get going first things first. I'm gonna make oatmeal right now I'm not gonna show the process because I've made it on this channel and my Instagram and my tiktok just about a million times Hi everybody Stop it. It's been just crooked, but it's okay show your oatmeal The recipe for this is on my Instagram highlights and same but this is my breakfast So she just shows a bowl of oatmeal I Mean we can assume it's just carbohydrates that are laden with like glyphosate and agrochemicals and no actual good sources of fatter protein So it's mostly just going to kind of go through your digestive system Maybe your gut bacteria will eat up some of it Maybe you'll have some enzymes to actually absorb some of the macronutrient energy, but overall You know, we can just assume that the majority of the things being digested are the toxins are the hell legends the negatives and the foods apply I'm not sure what I want. So we're going with two apple cinnamon rice cakes with this protein cookie butter on top So first things first I'm gonna put this in a little container and measure out of serving This is like screaming bro science like bro science bodybuilders Eating rice cakes and measuring peanut butter by the gram. It's absolutely ridiculous And then you add a little bit of water and just mix it until it's like spreadable Then you just spread it on the rice cake using the Quaker apple cinnamon ones These are really good. Let me tell you something whoever invented rice cakes.   You're getting a pure carbohydrate bomb at least make it taste good Very fall tasting especially with this because it's maple. What's with the vegans and the golden spoons? This is like every single vegan feel like the past five ones they eat with gold and silverware The irony of eating slave food with expensive cookie butter You can then I'm going to cut up a peach on the side too, and that is the final post workout snack Same thing but bananas If you're not on peaches guys Well, what recommend surprise surprise so for lunch I'm making two brief morning star farms. Oh, no We did a video on the incognito stuff and them and morning star is actually like codeword for Lucifer aka Satan. Oh my god It's kind of funny They must be wearing devil outfits when they make that plant-based meat slop Ritos just cuz I only have the little kinds of these flop breads Joseph's lavish bread. You can get it at Walmart It's actually really low-carb and low calorie Which is actually kind of annoying because it kind of makes it hard to hit your carbs when you eat these But they taste really good and yeah, we just like them. So I Have to set out here with like just some greens in it I have a little bit more than a serving of this as my protein already microwaved some cilantro lime rice Gonna put some like veggies with it They're all together like I said, these are kind of low-carb. So I throw some rice in there. Sandmade tacos We are always making burritos and tacos for lunch. They're just so good It's gonna be delicious. Oh God help me. Just tell you low-carb.  This is hilarious This is how they look they're not really wrapping too well, so I'm gonna eat them Probably semi-falling apart, but it doesn't matter. They still taste good. So I'm gonna eat these for lunch We are back. So it is now 3 30 p.m. We just hit a podcast episode That will be up when you're watching this both up ladies take notes If you want your chin and forehead to grow follow this diet Friday go listen. We're both making snacks. She got some Brass freeze please. Yes. I'm like super coffee cereal. I'm going to make This girl keeps making a southern voice. Is she a carnivore? Oh, she can join the club. Definitely cakes What should be fun guys? I have no idea what I'm gonna make for dinner So this might get kind of random dinner after this one. Yeah, I just don't have really another carb source for dinner I have no idea what my car for dinner is gonna be. You've eaten every carb there that exists already Three little pancakes with some sugar-free syrup and this is going to be my afternoon snack for the the irony of these people eating I mean, I don't understand this. We're only a third of the way into this video and she's already had like four meals But if you just have like high quality organic pancakes made with good ingredients and real maple syrup Yeah, the amount of toxins in this type of meal offsets the natural foods That you could be eating. Yeah, you it might be higher carb higher fat higher sugar But it tastes better and it's much better for you today Also while we were podcasting I had this just a poppy in the raspberry rose flavor. These are my jam I mean, I have no idea what that is but almost all of these drinks now They're an aluminum cans, which is of course a pollution concern I mean aluminum is one of the main soft metals that are neurotoxic that we consume and and plus all of the Natural flavors chemical additives to actually make it taste. Okay, you know Who knows if they're ever actually come out with studies on the stuff showing us how bad it is for us back in the kitchen it is 640 which is actually a late dinner for me I feel like normally I'm eating dinner at like five, but I don't know weird afternoon. I'm not hungry till now So let's go with it. We're gonna throw together something random.  I air fried some tofu So this is gonna be our protein and then I normally don't let me tell you something you feed this shit to prisoners They'll have to be breaking out within two days Like having rice two times in a day normally I like to have just like different carb sources, but I kind of don't really have Have much else right now like I don't really have another option. I don't like Pasta or anything, which maybe I'd make instead. I don't have For some extra carbs when you see it to a grain-free tortilla chips Just gonna do a sir. I mean does this make sense to anyone She's eating tofu with white rice and grain-free tortilla chips like like in what dietary context Would someone consider this healthy like not the vegans not the bodybuilders not the standard American dietors I'm very confused myself That's how you know your diet's messed up you're eating plain You're eating plain tortilla chips and it tastes good. I think you need to steak young lady Of course, we've got a green store bowl so have these Brussels sprouts I made yesterday gonna throw those on then I just honestly these girls probably wouldn't fart so much If they just laid off the vegetable a little bit added Mindy cucumber and a bit of romaine lettuce And I'm going to top it with this sauce. He makes it healthy. I'm obsessed with it. I think it's so amazing No idea what to call this bowl. I just type a nourish bowl If you will Nourish bowl Yeah, I mean I would love to have these people actually explain why this type of food is healthy Instead of actually understanding what it is you have oxidized Omega 6 Estrogenic soy in the tofu one of the worst things you can consume the white rice Hey, if it's not organic at you might be a little bit of pollutants, but it's not too inflammatory Those grain-free tortilla chips, you know, I mean how many ingredients are in them one dozen two dozen They're probably fried and vegetable seed oils and the vegetables themselves If you have a small amount on their own organic high-quality not horrible But that much all you have is anti-nutrients and they're very high water You know fruits and vegetables in general are going to suck up whatever water they're grown in which is typically very Polluted full of halogens chlorine fluoride as well as all the chemicals and and waste in the water supply not good we did quite a bit and This is going to be dinner for the night for the greatest time of the night. I pretty much eat this right after dinner. It's 7 20 It's macro cap time. So basically I go into my fitness pal and We see what we have left for the day. So you have some fat. We got like 20 grams How many times you guys think she called the plumber so far? What are you tracking the volume of food that is excluded into the toilet? Oh my god that's a good time because I Like me high-fat foods. I'm pretty much hit my protein and we're barely short on carbs.  So I was eating it yesterday and I just was full So I put it back. So this is what we're working with the rest of the ice cream these chocolate chips I'm definitely eating a little bit more out of the bag and a little drizzle of peanut butter chocolate guys mmm Chocolate is my weakness. I Don't care.  I think it was really just like a clever What's it called operation? I mean And any sort of diet is an operation by the CIA Vegan carnivore if it fits your macros the goal is to get people to consume Regular crappy foods. It's why you won't be able to find one YouTube channel outside of my own that just recommends local high-quality organic foods Mostly animal products just to make sure you're getting in certain nutrients.  It is the next day now.  It's the morning. I got a bowl of oats here Same thing. I only have that's lovely and although you're a very pretty young lady.  All right. Here we go built him my man boring. We need to invite this guy over to New York. I Mean, I Mean, I should have checked this out before because in hindsight This looks like a fake of I mean only 18 comments and 12,000 views I get about a third of that Views but I get 10 times as many comments. So I mean it's possible that I You'd have to check out her other social medias and see how many views she's actually getting but I don't know Either way whether she's pumping herself full of fake views or whether this is the actual case it's an example of The powers that be using these young woman to promote starvation diets that are basically Grains and fruits and vegetables that have no semblance of animal protein. No B vitamins none of the nutrition you need for fertility or or health in general and You know, I mean this has been going on for years and years and years before I started YouTube And I don't really know what to expect Because people are so brainwashed and ingrained in this conventional wisdom that it's kind of hard to dig them out of it But thank you guys for joining me today hopefully you don't end up with a forehead brow and Browbridge and a cleft chin like that, but you can Drop a like on the video leave a comment down below Subscribe so that YouTube can unsubscribe you next week and be sure to check that notification But also they don't notify you of my videos Therefore you can go to Frank dash to found a calm and support me through all of my businesses So I can pay a girl prettier than that to be my girlfriend


Hello everyone. My name is Loi Liu and I'm a CEO and co-founder of Kyber Network. Yes, today I'm super excited to be here to give you an update about what Kyber has been doing, especially in connecting decentralized liquidity for decentralized finance. Before we go to the details, let's just define what is liquidity. I think a lot of us have heard about liquidity but not many of us understand what exactly that term means. So liquidity really represents the degree in which an asset can be sold quickly in the market without impacting the price. Like for fiat currency like USD and Japanese yen, they are super liquid. For assets like Bitcoin and Ether, they are also very liquid. But for many of the ESC20 tokens, they are not as liquid. And when it comes to liquidity, there are two main parties. The liquidity takers are people who buy and sell the asset. And they are also the liquidity providers are people who actually make the offer for other to buy and sell. And they work closely together every time. So the main incentive for the market makers is that they're going to get the profit from the trading. But they also have the reach of holding the inventory and sometimes the market moves against the direction. But what is decentralized liquidity? There's literally no definition of this term on the internet. So this is really our first attempt. Decentralized liquidity in our definition is the liquidity that is available in the decentralized ecosystem. And there are two important properties of decentralized liquidity. First of all, there has to be a trustless relationship between the taker and the providers. So that means when they do the trade, there's no need for trust, right? There's no middleman sitting in the middle to settle the trade. And all the parameters including rates, amount and all these things have to be transparent and verifiable. So that people can detect everything and can verify everything before they enter the trade. And most importantly, it has to be utilizable by decentralized application or smart contract on public blockchains. So this is the current state of all the decentralized liquidity in Ethereum ecosystem. So we have several players like Uniswap, Kyber Reserve, Oasis from Maker, Bankor and Dash Edge from Nosis as well. But the main problem is that all of them are working in silo, right? So if a dev wants to take liquidity from all of these players, they have to have six different integrations. And sometimes it's going to take a lot of time, right? And sometimes it's even really hard to find enough liquidity because they don't have enough time and gas to talk to everyone. So this is where Kyber comes in, right? We are building a decentralized liquidity protocol that basically connect all the on-chain liquidity sources, you know, be it Uniswap, Kyber Reserve, Bankor, Oasis. And the main goal is to create one single liquidity pool for all the decentralized applications and wallets and websites to take the best rate available in the market. So basically they just talk to Kyber and Kyber will just find the best rate available for them and return it, you know, to the dev. So this is one example of how an on-chain index fund can use Kyber. For example, here the users, they want to send the ether and they want to convert this ether into an index of, you know, that has 30% of die, 30% of WBTC and say 40% of link, right? They just send the ether in a transition to the index fund. And the index fund will just forward the instruction and the fund to the Kyber contract and we just find the best rate according to each of the assets for the users. And in one single transition we can return everything to the end users. That will reduce all the friction because, you know, in a non-Kyber transition they may have to do three different transition in order to finish the trade. So what are the good properties that we enable, right? First of all, it's, you know, just combine all the available liquidity sources and make it single in one single, make it available in one single interface for any application, any DAB to integrate. So that will just make it easy for all of them. And secondly, we have a flexible liquidity models so that we can work with, you know, all of the liquidity sources. That's why Kyber is the only one that could talk to Oasis, that could talk to Uniswap, that could talk to Gnosis and we could even work with professional market makers, that marketing on-chain. So this really allows all the liquidity providers to use different strategy when it comes to market making on-chain. On the other hand, if you, you know, on Uniswap there's only automatic market making model and if you subscribe to some liquidity pool you have to follow that model, right? And it's the same for Oasis, for example. And third, but also like the most important property is that Kyber runs everything on-chain. That will make it, you know, super transparent and verifiable. That means there's no trusted third party and this is the main reason why we designed Kyber to be fully on-chain in the first place. But later on when we started working with, you know, a few projects we realized that running fully on-chain make it very easy to, you know, connect with others as well. That means there's a great compulsability with many other on-chain applications. And moving forward, I think this is one of our key concerns when Ethereum switched to ETH 2.0 when, you know, there are different shards and, you know, running on-chain doesn't mean that you can, doesn't mean that you could talk to a different smart contract easily. This is the start in the last few months. Okay, so we have more than 5,000 monthly unique addresses that have been using Kyber. The number of liquidity providers that have been working actively on Kyber is around 30. So value locking, this is the metric that a lot of people are talking on Twitter. But I don't think it's that important because for Kyber, the value locking is actually much less than others. But we are processing in terms of the trade volume much more than others at the moment. And in the last six months, we are processing more than, you know, 800,000 Ether that is corresponding to around 150 million USD. The number of tokens that we are supporting is around 70 and we are adding more every month. So in terms of application integrated, I want to show this figure, right? So we have more than 65 different applications, wallets that have been integrating with Kyber to utilize the liquidity pool that we have. And many of them are here today, like Toto and BZ-Rx. And we can also see a lot of other DeFi players like SetProtocol and Nuo and Instadab. In terms of wallets, I think we are connected to most of the major wallets in the space already, including, you know, MITRE wallets, Amptoken, Ben Guzuz here, and NGene and CoI-based wallets. And it's, you know, totally open and permissionless to integrate with Kyber. You just go to developer.kyber.network to see the API, and you can just like integrate with Kyber, I guess, in a couple of hours. I just want to share a couple of, like, you know, spotlight integration that have been using Kyber so that you can understand, you know, what they use Kyber for, right? The first one is the in-house end users decentralized chains. We call it KyberSwap. And the main advantage of KyberSwap is that, you know, it optimizes for the user-friendliness, right? We have many features that make it super easy for the end users to start, you know, doing decentralized trading. Some of them are like, you know, non-custodial limit orders that allow them to create limit orders even, you know, even when there's no custodial involved, right? They're also like price alert. And we also have iOS and Android mobile apps so that the users can just do it on the phone. And this is the growth of Kyber, of KyberSwap in terms of trade volume. This is just like part of the Kyber volume because we have many other partners that introduce volume to Kyber as well. But we could see that, you know, from February to June to July when the market was, you know, was booming, we saw a lot of, you know, transition and volume from KyberSwap. But in the last couple of months, when it's cooled down, we see a dull trend. But in the last six months, we, on KyberSwap, we have around like 10,000 new users, and a lot of them coming from all the end users' marketing that KyberSwap targeted at conference, at events. And one of the activities that KyberSwap team did is that they just, you know, distribute the end user gift card with preloaded ether so that the users can just start using the Ethereum blockchain without, you know, the concern of, like, acquiring ether or, you know, understanding what's gas and things like that. Another one is SET protocol. And basically what they do is they allow people to manage the asset in a different strategy. And one simple strategy is that they can just buy in some index, right?  And SET use Kyber in background when the users, you know, do that conversion. And everything is fully on-chain. You can also see all the transition on ether scan or any explorer, right? Another one that is super interesting is Nuo.  So they basically, you know, if you have ether and you want to borrow DAI, right, you just collateralize your ETH and when the price of ETH, you know, goes down, which is unfortunate, Nuo will just liquidate the users' position on Kyber. And everything is done via the smart contract, and the users can also verify the activities. So in case there's dispute, they can verify it, they can check it, and it can be used as a proof, right? So that is on the taker side. Let's see how we are doing on the reserve side or on the liquidity provider side, right? So here's the list of, like, top 10 liquidity providers on Kyber. So Kyber, we have our own reserve as well, but at the same time, we also work with many other reserves, including Oasis, Uniswap. There are a few professional market makers, like their guys in the third position. They don't want to share their identity.  This is mainly used by the professional market maker. We also have something similar to Uniswap, that we call automated price reserve. And of course, there's the bridge to Uniswap and Oasis as well. And the top 10 tokens are, you know, stablecoins, of course. You know, DAI, USDC, and Ether and WBTC, and USDT as well. There are a few other liquid ERC-20 tokens, like Maker, Omisego, and KNC, and Link, and BAT as well. So one of the initiatives that Kyber has been actually working on is, you know, crotch-chain, right? Our goal is to bring more and more assets from different blockchains, like Bitcoin and EOS, and other blockchains to Ethereum, so that the users on Ethereum can trade them, can use them in a trustless and freely manner. So the first initiative that we launched together with many other partners, I think six or seven months ago, was WBTC, and the idea was very simple, right? We just, you know, allow people to create a representative of Bitcoin on Ethereum, which is in the form of ERC-20 tokens. And the main question is, you know, who will custody the Bitcoin for the users? For simplicity, which is not ideal, but, you know, it's very simple and very easy to understand. We just use Bitcoin as a custody.  And if they want to redeem it, they just burn the token, and they will get back to Bitcoin on Bitcoin blockchain. This is a very widely supported initiative by all the projects in the ecosystem. And, you know, feel free to integrate WBTC in your project, in your DeFi project now. It's just like, you know, adding any other ERC-20 token. Another one that we started not too long ago was the bridge between EOS and Ethereum. Basically, this is, you know, having... And this is going to be a trustless bridge. And the idea here is that, like, we could... We essentially build a client of EOS on Ethereum and the client of Ethereum on EOS, and we just allow people to, you know, verify the transition of one blockchain on another in a trustless manner. The detail of this, you can search Waterloo Bridge, you know, EOS to Ethereum. You will find the blog post that our developer released a couple of months ago. You'll find all the technical details. Yeah, so, final thought. I hope that I have convinced you that decentralized liquidity is important for DeFi and, you know, they are still scattered. And we are doing our best in connecting all the liquidity sources on Ethereum. There's still a lot to do, especially in the cross-chain space. We need to have a better mechanism to, you know, to bring WBTC on Ethereum. But, you know, WBTC and TBTC as well. And Waterloo is a good start. We can improve from there. And, yeah, we look forward to work with everyone on this. And thank you. Is there any Q&A? Okay, sure. I have two minutes. Thank you so much for your talk. I have two questions. Our first one is about your index fund. I thought like link talking is 40% consists of the next one. I was wondering why it was chosen. I think like DAI and WBTC kind of make sense, but the other is the link talking was not. And then the other question is, I often hear from the DeFi community that the Kiber exchange rate is a little bit expensive. The exchange rate is not, you know, really good compared to the central exchange. It's probably due to, you know, on-chain transaction of everything. However, are you guys going to solve this issue in the future or what are you walking on? Thank you. So I think for the first question, it was just like, you know, out of nowhere, right? Is this like, for example, is this for example? Oh, okay, right. And for the second one, I think in the last few months, we have been working with a lot of professional market makers to work with them to improve the rate and the liquidity on Kiber. I think one of the challenges is that updating the price on-chain will cost you some gas, right? And a lot of them don't update the price like instantly because they just cannot. Once you send the transaction to update the price, you have to wait for like, you know, 15 or 20 seconds. So they have to help that in the pricing model to slippage. Yeah. But I think currently the rate for stable coins are quite good and they are quite competitive. I think it's as competitive as centralized genders. I think one thing that is different in Kiber price is that that's the final price that the user will get. There's no fees after that. So it's the post-fee price, right? But the price on centralized genders, for example, they are like pre-fee price. So that's the price you get and then, you know, that's the amount you get before the fees. So after the centralized genders deduct the fees, you may get, you know, less. Okay, thanks. Hey, thanks for your talk. So Kiber and Uniswap are becoming the defective price feeds in the DeFi space. One thing I'm concerned about and would like to understand what you're doing with flash crushes. So if I want to lend some amount, I'm concerned that, you know, due to thin order books, my, you know, position might get liquidated. What are your thoughts on that and what do you want to do to prevent these things? Thank you. I think, for example, on... I think that's a good question. I think, for example, on Kiber, if you wanted to trade a very large amount, you wouldn't be able to, and Uniswap, because the model, they allow you to scale to, I think, infinitely, right? So if you wanted to sell, like, 1,800, they could also allow you to do that. But the price is very bad, because there's not enough inventory there. So on Kiber, we just decided to revert the generation if there's not enough liquidity. Yeah, and I think the only way to address that is to work with more professional market makers to bring them on chain and to help them provide more liquidity for the DeFi ecosystem. Okay. If there's no other question, I'm going to be around, so feel free to ask me.


We call it a sunrise, even though we know that the sun isn't actually moving. When you're born into a world already in motion, riding this thousand mile an hour roller coaster becomes a skill we didn't even know we had acquired. We become so used to something that our language fails to reflect what is actually happening, and to some extent I think that's okay, because it's not always about asking the question what actually happened, it's about discovering what people THINK actually happened and the impact those cultural interpretations have on the world around us. While we may have left the myth of a flat earth behind, we still hold on to the mythical language of a sun that rises and sets around our static world and our earth-centric view of reality.