Welcome back. Just before we went for our break, we were trying to answer this question. What would cause a teacher to have an impact on young person's life? So we had some answers. Thank you. Anyone else wants to answer or share your thoughts? Okay. If not, I'll just present four probable things that, you know, a teacher can have impact on a young person's life. The first one is that he or she is well prepared and employs effective methods and triggers the young one's internal motivation to challenge and freedom. Okay. So the first thing is that you need to be well prepared for your class.  It's not just creative, but it's catering to the learning styles and to the eight intelligences. And also when you are preparing your lesson, you are not thinking that your audience will just, of course, they take in everything that you tell them because they're childlike in their faith and their understanding. They just, you know, receive everything, take it as truth. But also you are teaching them as ones who are intelligent beings, you know, so that you can motivate them by throwing different challenges. And also you are giving them the freedom to, you know, to work in ways that will, you know, will help cater to their felt needs or to their challenges that they are facing. So you don't dictate to them how they are going to implement it in their own lives. Of course, you can suggest, you can give them various suggestions and share your thoughts, but give them the freedom on how they want to work out, you know, how best they can work out or what probably suits them or what they think they can use and take and do to face that particular challenge or the difficulty that they are facing or you're teaching them about, you know, how to overcome fear or how to overcome anger, disappointment, anxiety or you're basically teaching them about how to handle blessings of God in their lives. So get them to write down how they are going to implement what they have learnt, okay. The second thing is that, you know, when a teacher, he or she treats the young ones as competent and intelligent individuals who respond appropriately, okay. So when you're teaching children, you're teaching them, teaching minds or you're teaching lives that are competent, you know, competent to understand, competent to perceive, to, you know, they're capable, they're skilled to receive what you are telling them and they're also intelligent individuals, you know.  No, but you need to treat them as competent and intelligent individuals. When you think about them in that mindset then you prepare better, you're well equipped, you are more prepared for your class rather than taking it very lightly and also that, you know, that they are competent and intelligent children who respond appropriately to what you are telling them.  So all of those things, you know, look for appropriate responses. The third thing that a teacher can do to impact a young person's life is like, you know, he or she is loving, Godly, you know, they're concerned for the young one, they're willing and eager to share their life with them, okay. So just like Divya was saying, you know, just be loving, caring, show compassion, speak kind words, declare positive things over their lives, you know, also that the person is Godly, you yourself are, you know, moving in God's ways, you know, empowered by the spirit, you are living in constant intimacy with God and also that you show concern for the young ones. You know, children can easily see when you are teaching them just out of responsibility or you're teaching them because you're concerned about them. So for example, how can we show concern to children? Teaching a class, how can you show concern to the children? Taking care of individual differences. For instance, if a kid has got some issue, do not just brush it off, just try to show that you're concerned because at times kids never mind about how much we, until they know how much we care and love them. Thank you. Yes, you know, if you've noticed something that is really disturbing a child, you know, don't just cover it or leave it, son, but talk about it, show that you're concerned by discussing with them, asking them what really is the issue and how you can help. What else? Having the passion for what your purpose in teaching them is, like if at all we are teaching a biblical concept, if we teach them just for the sake of finishing that, then it may not impact them, but teach them so that with the desire that they would understand and they can be able, they will be able to apply it in their lives. So having that passion is important, I think. Yes, when children, when teachers take the necessary steps to do all the object lessons, the story and the PowerPoint and, you know, game and all of those things, they would see your interest in teaching them, in inculcating those godly values, the hard work that you're doing, the steps that you are taking. Anything else? I think to have a personal touch with them, like in my classes, like during the time we have a little break where we share the snacks and like before 10 minutes before I asked them how was the week and what's happening at home and make sure that you're appreciating them for what they have achieved through the week if they've got any marks and also if they are going through anything, that's how you know like if you spend most of the time teaching and you don't have a personal touch I don't think that's why we are there. I think we should have that. And the children are very open, sometimes we see them sharing, we may think they might not share but they are very open and they say this is what happening, this is what I'm going through and all this and those kind of personal touch, we should try to build that bond and make sure that we are not, they feel that safe with us, they feel that we are not judging but we are always there to help and also sharing our life stories might help like when we were in that age work there and how that help does might also show them that we are really concerned about their life. Yes, thank you, Jafina. I think not just speaking down at them but speaking at their level at times. For example, saying that hey, when I was in school I did this. Maybe you cheated in a test, you used a bad word, you fought with somebody or you failed or you didn't do well and what happened, how you went through that whole process, how God helped you actually get children to say hey, there is someone here who is not teaching down on us or telling us what we should do and not do and does not understand us but has gone through what we are going through, understands us and so maybe I can open up I can share. So that is also showing concern. Concern is also basically praying for them. When you pray for them, God actually feels things about them that he wants to be addressed that they are going through and then when you just quietly call them and say I have been praying for you and God has just kind of stirred my heart towards you for this area. Is there anything that I can say or help you and they will be shocked and amazed because God is basically interested in that area of their life, their struggles and challenges they know. So yeah, that shows that you are really concerned. I've had many children who their parents have come to me and said hey, he or she did this, this and then I spoke into them and they said we will share it with you but we don't want you to share it with our parents. So I said yeah, I will do that and I kept my word because I have not shared it with the parents and they have opened up they have told me what they really went through, why they did what they did. Now those children have all grown up they're in adult church, they're all part of various volunteer teams still have a good relationship with them. It's because they have seen that you're generally concerned about them it's not that you want to punish them or condemn them but you're generally interested in helping them to overcome those challenges and their difficulties and you really care. Also, eager to share their life with them, share your life what you have gone through and that will be a great learning experience for them. Children have told me they learn better not through the concepts that we teach them but when we have given them practical life examples like for my own life or when I've spoken something that I've read from the newspaper, something that has happened, some celebrity's life, some sports star life, what they did, how they went through this and you know what they should have done differently and all of those things those things really impact their lives. Divya says remembering their birthdays and wishing them, yes. Also if you know they look very sad, disappointed in class, you can ask them later on pray with them. If they don't come over to class you don't see them, call up, find out. All that shows that you really care and that they are part of the family and they're not just their teacher who you meet every Sunday. The next one is, the fourth one is he or she is interested in not just teaching Biblical truths but also concerned with the overall development of the children. You are not just teaching them the Biblical truths like Divya was saying but you're basically concerned of their overall development, the holistic development of the child. When a teacher uses excellent teaching methods combined with a deep genuine concern for the young ones, the children find it extremely difficult not to learn or they'll find it extremely difficult not to connect with you. They'll find it extremely difficult not to enjoy your class.  Any questions so far? Any questions? Yes Divya. Thank you ma'am. I was just thinking about how in these situations we can have the parents also right because when teachers have an impact do you think it's important even for the parents to be involved and how that can be done? Yes I think it's very important to keep the parent involved because basically when you want to have a holistic development you can't always have it in isolation with the child because the child is spending most of their time in school and at home and the parents know what's happening in school, they know what is happening at home so that's why when we were when I was doing the Biblical mandate for the Children's Ministry I said mentoring talk about mentoring, how important mentoring is and mentoring can be done only not with the child but also engaging and involving the parents. So I was saying that how we do mentoring at Children's Church at ABC is I used to tell the Children's Church Ministers they basically teach two Sundays, alternate Sundays in a month and I said the other alternate Sundays when you attend adult church make it a point to just meet your children who you are mentoring in your class meet the parent, tell them that you are their teacher, that you're praying for the child, is there anything that challenges the child going through any difficulties that you can pray for or help the child and all that and then I'll show them of the confidentiality of you keeping things confident or confidential in what they are going to say and all that and you will see that they will share because you're basically interested in their children and you're helping them out parenting their children and so yes, it's important to keep the parents also in the loop. But sometimes when children say specific things, mention specific things that they don't want to be that the parent should not be informed or don't tell anybody else then you keep it confidential. Okay, thank you. Anything else? Thank you Divya. Any questions, any queries, doubts? Anything I'd like to add, say? I would like to ask a question. So when we reach out to the villages maybe everywhere it happens but like when the parents are being little strict or abusive or like or anger or and then if the child is suffering silently, like how do you help them to develop in that area like do you go and speak with the parents or console them or I'm just imagining because I've seen my classmates like when I was at school, like many they didn't have a very good parents, they were very and then how they beat and put the bars and all those things and girls were being treated differently sometimes and boys were treated differently, they don't like their parents and all this. So if a child comes and approach you in those issues, what are the steps you would tell them to do or how do you actually have it? Yes, very good question, very important question as well. Anyone would like to share your thoughts on what Jeffina shared?  According to me, I think we can be confidential we should learn how to separate measures and minors we cannot keep quiet on something major like that if there is any criminality involved I think it is okay to break the confidential seal so sit with it that the kid is being helped because otherwise you will become an accomplice if you do keep quiet when you hear such a thing. Yes, thank you Loubega, I wanted to actually add that in the previous thing that I said that the child will say keep things confidential but there are some things that cannot be kept confidential has to be addressed, has to be catered, the need has to be met and you can't just overlook it and keep quiet, you need to do something about it then yes, you will have to tell the child that if you keep quiet you don't do anything you will continue to suffer so it is okay if I do this, this, this this is just for your help, this is for your benefit and see how things go, of course the child will need counseling but yes we will need to speak to the parent maybe if one parent is being very abusive, maybe you can speak to the other parent how the other parent can help or if you know anyone in the family who can step in and help grandparents can reach out to them as well, anything else how we can have the child? one thing, as you said, if there is another guardian for the child within the family who understands and was able to have a better was able to better help the child it will be a good way to connect with the parents rather than an outsider that was something that I was thinking and also helping the child with the right kind of counseling might help also it would be good to have parent teacher meeting or parenting sessions during the parent teacher meeting you can address some of these issues you can say our children are going through these things at home so you can address some of those issues and help parents so they know hey the children's church pastor, the ministers know they'll be a little more careful and they can also get the needed help you can share something, you can speak on those train counselor, you can speak on those issues how they can get the needed help, what is causing them to react like that or treat their children like that and also if they need additional help they can always reach out to the counselor at church or anyone so you can open up things so parents know and aware and also show how it's impacting children, you can talk about general case histories that have happened in the past and how it's affected them children who have had abusive parents, how it's affected them as adults and look at this adult, how he's living his life, how he's struggling and maybe the parents themselves have been victims of abuse and now it's kind of becoming a pattern in them and they are doing the same thing for their children or if they have unfulfilled dreams they're trying to live it out to their children and how so all of these things can be spoken of so parents are more aware so you can have parent teacher sessions, parenting sessions and you can just address these various issues that really help Anything else? Anyone else likes to add? Also if there are sometimes when children are going through things like this and they come and tell you and say, my child is or you're having a problem, this child is a nice child and I had this issue with one of our children in Children's Church who was a very sweet loving child but beating up another child and he was basically beating up another child who was a special child, they were good friends both of them, they sit together, he's very caring of her, very loving and all of those things but I think when he gets angry about something he speeds it up and she's not told me or the teacher, she goes back and tells the mother so the mother's comment, it happened twice, so there's a mother's comment told me so then I had to address that with the child and because he was a very small child I also had to address it with the parents and the parents are very upset and immediately the parent just hit the child in front of me I also know how the parent reacts when the child is treating his wife at home and the parent came back after a few months and told me the child was doing the same thing in school there has been reports where he's beating up other children and I know the whole history because I saw that the father immediately slapped him in front of me the mother was very very upset when he gets angry the father beats up the mother and the child is seeing that so I had to address it with the parents but I didn't know I can't say it directly because I know for a fact and I know it's true and I've heard but how do I address it so I just had to tell the father see the child is doing it because the child is learning from somewhere I started with either watching movies where there is a lot of violence so he's playing games looking at cartoons where there is violence so that is triggering of because he's a very nice child he's a very loving child and he just can't go around beating others it's not normal for this child to do that it's because he's learning it he's picking it up from somewhere he's either at home I mentioned that he's observing things either at home or he's observing things in the family extended family so that got the parent really thinking yeah that's not the fault of my child it's something that has to do with us because I'm behaving that way so sometimes you need to say things you need the wisdom of God you have to point out the things and say things you have to do it sometimes I would just like to ask a few questions so I think once when I went to the interior and I met child laborers over there and I'm just asking how do you think what we should do when we meet children like that and I think their life lifestyle is so very different from what we think the other children go through and they work and they go to school and someday they go to school and how as ministers what we can do for them and how we can what are the teachings we should give them I'm just wondering about all this because the environment changes not more like they are in school they are in workplaces sometimes they are abused or sometimes they work too much don't get wages and all this and also about what if you come to know a child is suicidal how do you handle that case just some case studies yes thank you jefina jefina works with more of the rural kids and so I think she engages with these kind of kids so any thoughts on how you can help children who are child laborers how to you know what to teach them what to narrate their stories how to minister to them any thoughts I would say basically talk about the love of God now how Jesus was loving his son jesus's daughter you know Jesus showing love to the children even though the disciples didn't think they were important various narratives and how the widow women son was there the Elijah story and all of those things so that he cares for the little children he sees he loves them they are in Christ that God still loves them he cares for them how he is a provider talk about stories in the bible about God's provision his love his care his compassion he is a God of miracles how he can do work miracles for them you know talk about a God of justice who is just he will bring about justice and fairness even in their situations is a lot of righteousness he does what is right as well so all of these narratives can really build them into a relationship with God and they can just depend on him and they can see him working through in their lives and also talk to them that this is not what God has planned for them poverty is not what God had planned for them being child laborers is not what God has planned for them God is not a partial God he treats everyone the same but how they can speak and decree God's promises and get themselves out of that situation that is what you can do anyone else wants to add yes no there are some relevant things that we can even if you are a pastor you can still add and tell us how you can help what if parents come to you as pastors children's church teachers ministers and you know their child is suicidal you know a child is suicidal how can you have the child still it can be like cancelling which is concrete but I think we can show them that through cancelling and guided and reading for them some lines in the bible to show them that the life they have is not theirs it is for God and God gave them for all a purpose so to show them that they should live and they should do nothing about their life we would find the reasons why they think to find a solution for that yes thank you Lubega yes they need cancelling they need you know help in topics that you can teach them it's about God has a calling and a purpose for them God has a plan he's created them for specific purpose he has plans to prosper them not to harm them it has a good future for them so all of these can be something that you can teach them on and also yes you can bind the spirits that are working against them tormenting oppressive depressive spirits tormenting their minds also you can talk about just declare that they are the mind of Christ speak declarations give them decrees and declarations that they can speak over their lives and when they feel suicidal they can you know just call you or they can just come give them some support adults they can receive support from who is there who can watch over them someone they are accountable to which will really help thank you Lubega okay we'll move on okay thank you Jeffina for your good questions I was thinking yes the class by saying you know that calling of a teacher is a divine call okay those who ministered in children's church or Sunday school you know they have an it's an important call and they have an important role according to Ephesians 4 verses 11 and 12 okay look at what Ephesians 4 verses 11 and 12 says can somebody read that please turn the screen so anyone can read it please Ephesians 4, 11 and 12 it was he who promised some to be evangelist and some to be pastors to prepare God's people for works of service so that the body of Christ may be built up amen so here we see that you know the ministry offices appointed by God himself so we have the membership gifts we have the gifts of the spirit and we also have the ministry offices specific ministry offices that is appointed by Christ himself and Christ appoints some to be apostles, prophets, evangelists, pastors and one of the ministry offices is that of a teacher okay so it is not just a simple calling it's a divine calling it's something that you know you're called into this position as a teacher it's a divine appointment by Christ himself so that is very very important to keep at the back of our minds because to know that hey I'm called into this specific ministry office by God himself and I'm accountable to him for the sheep that he has entrusted to me I am a shepherd and I'm accountable to the sheep that he's entrusted to me so you know even as I was ministering in children's church I always had this the back of my mind that God is going to hold me accountable to the lives that he has entrusted to me so what am I doing to you know spiritual upbringing you know am I just being complacent just going with what I have done before or thinking waiting on the Lord you know to see the next steps he wants me to take and how to move them forward in the things of God so all those are very very important because teaching is a ministry office and we're appointed by Christ himself you know was Jesus a teacher? 155% okay yes Jesus was one of the greatest teachers was he a teacher or a preacher? was he more a teacher or a preacher? what do you all think? was he more a teacher or a preacher? 100% he was all wrong he was a preacher, a doctor everything is 100% okay he was a preacher and a teacher yes but most of the time which role did he most of the time I'm inclined to say that he was more of a teacher yes right thank you Lupega thank you Jeffina as well yes most of the time he was more inclined towards teaching he was more a teacher you know and he magnified the work of a teacher he was both a preacher and a teacher but he was referred to as a teacher okay Divya says he was a professor and a coach okay thank you what is the task of a we look at what is the task of a teacher and a preacher but before we look at the task of a teacher what is the task of a preacher anyone what is the job assignment of a teacher the answer is in 2nd Timothy chapter 4 verse 2 the answer is in 2nd Timothy chapter 4 verse 2 what is the task of a teacher so all of you quickly look up 2nd Timothy chapter 4 verse 2 and let me know what's the answer to convince to rebuke and to exhort to convince to rebuke to exhort with all long suffering and teaching there's no slide on that rebuke to re-prove what is the meaning so the task of a preacher is basically to exhort basically to press push insist on a specific point and his job or her job is also to re-prove which means to take to task to re-buke some of the things that you know lifestyle sin that is not pleasing in the Lord's sight and also it is to re-buke and to press home of points so that it is acted upon by the people who hear okay so the task of a preacher is basically to convince, re-buke, sort, re-prove and do it with a lot of patience, long suffering long suffering and teaching a lot of patience and to continually teach okay so that is the task of a preacher what do you think is the task of a teacher what do you think is the task of a teacher the task of a teacher is to inculcate knowledge values, skills and attitudes from one side to the other okay thank you Loubega anyone else helping kids apply the truths they learn and guide them okay thank you yes so teacher's primary task is to instruct okay instruct means basically to teach to train to coach and to tutor okay so you're there to teach to train to be a coach to become alongside them coaching them training them and to be a tutor okay also teacher teaches facts not just teaches the facts but you know simplifies the facts or simplifies the truths and then just doesn't just leave those facts and truths by just stating it but looks to various means to illustrate those facts illustrates those truths okay and also how in ways they can the person that the audience that you're teaching to how they can apply the truth okay and they look for response okay they look for response so it's basically to instruct how to teach train coach and tutor how to teach the facts, simplify those facts and those truths they looked ways and means how they can illustrate it and also look at ways and how to help to apply the truth, apply those facts you know and they look back for a response so it's a whole complete package okay of course when you when you preach you are also talking about how to apply it and how they can respond but you're not coming back and asking them hey how did you respond to my message the next Sunday as a teacher you know you can illustrate those with various activities, games, object lessons, attention getters and also look at how you can help them to apply the truth like Divya mentioned and also look for response very very important okay but some of the teachers what they do is they basically do a good role of instructing the children they also may come to a good role of where they can you know simplify the truth, teach the truth but what they fail to do most often is how they can illustrate those truths, those concepts, how they can help the audience to apply the truth and also they fail to look at the response how you know the children have applied they don't come back next week and do a recap and say how did you know act on what we had studied last week or what we learnt yes Linden, yes Linden you have your hand up you have can unmute your mic and ask okay Linden are you there put your hand up you have any question okay we'll move on okay so that is the basic you know task of a teacher so we look at the task of a preacher and a teacher and we see Jesus being more of a teacher because he basically teaches trains the coaches then he's talking about the facts the truths he simplifies the facts and truths he also illustrates it says look at the bird of the air the little field the mountain you know and all of those examples the soul went to sour seed he talks about parables and then he helps them to apply the truth and then he also looks for response so we also it's important that the teacher gives students the opportunity for questions and discussion to be sure that the truth has been understood okay so give time for them to talk about what they have learnt ask questions so that you can know whether they have picked up the concepts of truth in the right way in the right sense and you know or have discussions to ensure that the truth has been understood well and also help them to apply the truth and look for response okay we'll move on to what is the qualifications of a teacher okay so even as we've seen that the role of a teacher is part of the five old ministry offices in the body of Christ and it's appointed by Christ himself so we just can't pick up anyone and everyone in the to be a teacher we basically need to pray and ask God to show us you know I do that you know when I'm looking for teachers for our children's church I ask God to I pray and ask God to show me faces or names in our congregation who I can approach and I ask God if it's his will then you know to speak to them as well so I go and then you know he shows me sometimes faces gives me names or somebody you know recommends them and I pray about it and then I sense God moving me towards them then I go and speak to them but I tell them hey take some time too this is our requirement this is the roles and responsibilities and then I tell them to take some time to pray about it and if they think I'm going to come back and let me know okay so what is the qualifications of a teacher okay or we looked at messenger and methods you know who is what a messenger must be okay the first thing a messenger must be someone who's growing and maturing in their walk with God okay so you know even as you are a teacher you need to grow and mature in your walk with God grow in your understanding of God's word grow stronger in your prayer life be mature and deeper get mature and deeper into the things of God because if you are not growing in your understanding of God or your revelation of God if you're very stagnant you know what happens to stagnant pools they just breathe all kind of insects and it's dirty water and it's not good for health and we don't have anything new to share with the kids so it's important that you know we grow and mature in our walk with God so if one has to teach then you know they must be faithful students of the word okay and we all know that we have the greatest infallible that is the perfect dependable flawless teacher who is the who is the greatest infallible teacher Jesus okay the Holy Spirit and he is the one who teaches and help us to understand the truth in God word and how we can communicate this to the children yes the Holy Spirit okay so we need to spend time and like 2 Timothy 2 was 15 Paul is writing to Timothy and he's saying hey Timothy study to show yourself approved unto God rightly dividing the word of truth so he's saying you have to preach and teach only the word of God only the doctrines of the word of God but even as you do it take time to study so that you can show yourself as one approved unto God rightly dividing the word of truth we'll stop here we'll look at the next 3 points next class next class maybe the last class in case I don't finish I'll just take one more class in the month of March but maybe next class the last class but anyone has any questions anyone has any questions then I like to schedule the first assessment we're going to have 2 assessments for children's ministry so lesson 1 and lesson 2 which is Biblical mandate for children's ministry and developmental needs of children so when can I post the assessment any possible date can you all give me please tomorrow is Thursday okay or Friday okay and then you can have 3 or 4 days to do it 3 days maybe is that okay can I post it on Thursday or Friday yeah we can cut and work for me this side okay Divya says okay Rosalind is okay John Paul says okay okay so I'll post it on should I post it on Thursday or Friday which is better the due date is the one we have to mind about when you post on Thursday what when is the due date we're posted on Thursday which is the 22nd I'll give you time till the 26th which is Monday we're posted on 23rd I'll give you time to 27th second option Friday is that okay with everybody 23rd okay 2 people are saying Thursday Rosalind is saying Thursday as well only one person on Friday what about the others okay fine okay thank you everyone pretending class I'll post it on Thursday maybe I can give you time to 26 or 27 for those of you who have busy weekends as pastors and you need Monday to kind of relax your mind can give you even Tuesday that's not a problem okay thank you everyone have a blessed day


Analysts and investors are pouring over the data and details from Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Black Friday sales posted a big year-over-year increase before $6.6 billion in sales made Cyber Monday the biggest shopping day ever. But is making retail history enough to get the sector as ACDC sings back in black? To find out, I spoke with Melissa Armo, founder of Stock Swoosh, to take a look at what she had to say. Analysts and investors are pouring over the data and details from Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Black Friday sales are posting a big year-over-year increase before $6.6 billion in sales made Cyber Monday the biggest shopping day ever. But is making retail history enough to get the sector back in black as ACDC sings? The latest figure is Melissa Armo, founder of Stock Swoosh. Melissa, thank you so much for being here and joining us. And if you don't mind, when we spoke, you told me this great story, I can't believe I had never heard it, about the genesis of Black Friday and FDR and President Roosevelt. Give our viewers a quick clip notes historical on Black Friday, if you would. Sure. Well, good afternoon. Thanks for having me, Bart. Actually, I found this really interesting information out. I thought I'd share with you the other day, so I'll tell the viewers. Black Friday, it sounds like something ominous, but actually it's not. Back in 1939, it was right after the Great Depression, retailers were struggling for sales, so they asked the president to extend the holiday shopping period, which would mean moving Thanksgiving up. And he actually did it, but a couple of states fought him on it, so it was half and half till about 1941, when Congress passed a law that Thanksgiving that would be the 4th Thursday in November, so it falls differently on a different day each year, but it has extended the holiday period. And the reason that it's called Black Friday is because it turns retailers into the black, going from red to black, meaning positive in sales then, towards the end of the fourth quarter. And actually Goldman Sachs came out this year and said that this year, 2017, is going to be a big year for retailers, and 35% of their annual revenues may be in this final quarter of the end of 2017. So it's going to be a big shopping period, and you just gave the number. I mean, it's huge, $6.59 billion, it turned out to be, for the holiday weekend that we've just started. Super, thank you for that. I really enjoyed it, and I know our viewers did, too, a little historical. So look, while Black Friday and Labor Monday sales, as we've been talked about are really great, the foot traffic, the in-store traffic is basically flat or falling slightly according to Shopper Track. What's the real state of retail for the holiday season going forward now and going forward, Melissa? What's the big picture that fits into both of these figures we've been talking about? Well, it's kind of interesting looking at the statistics. People are doing more online shopping now on Black Friday than they had previously. We're moving towards a trend. Again, it's 2017, going forward 2018, 2019 by 2020, it may flip. But as of right now, you're still seeing more people in the store in Black Friday than shopping online. But on Monday, on Cyber Monday, you are seeing about 66% of the people doing online shopping on Cyber Monday, waning, not shopping on Black Friday online, waiting to see if they can get a better deal on Monday through sales and social media advertisements, all that kind of thing. One of the statistics I thought was very interesting, though, is that more people in the age group, 35 to 44, actually shop more online than people 18 to 24, which I thought was really interesting because it was a big gap. It was like 50% to 62%. So I thought younger people shop more online on the apps and their phones than people 35 to 44. But that wasn't the case and the numbers that came out in the report. So I was a little bit surprised by that. The other thing was surprised about too. And you'll find this funny, a bar, but more men go into stores and more women shop online. Yeah, that does surprise me and was not moi. But I do recall a couple of years ago, Melissa, my wife and I went shopping after midnight on the morning of Black Friday. And we got some really great deals. But now it seems the sales are starting earlier and you're earlier, even before Thanksgiving, focusing less on Black Friday or Cyber Monday. So what's the strategy of the retailers here? And how big is this trend to sort of stretch out these retail shopping days? And do you have to give a retail shopping day a name to make it a success? I don't think so. But I think it helps because people have in their mind Black Friday. Now people have Cyber Monday, which actually has been going on for years. Now it's Cyber Week. Like this whole week is Cyber Week. I did notice this year actually for the first time more so than even last year. Although there were a couple sales last year, even more sales now before Thanksgiving Day. It doesn't have a name. Maybe we should come out with a name bar and we'll call it something. But I will tell you that there was a lot of sales, discounts off and gift cards and different free shipping offers right before the Thanksgiving and even before the holiday weekend. You know, one of the reasons that Amazon stock keeps blowing out their numbers. So they just had earnings. The stock just made brand new off time highs on the last week. One of the reasons is because they've had a success with the online business. They sell so many things online, plus now they have they purchased whole foods or selling things there. You can get some of the nice discounts it offers in the store. One of the reasons that Amazon is so successful, the stock is so successful is because they're really doing everything right with the free shipping, the same day shipping, the next day shipping with the online sales. So all these other retailers have to come up with new ideas to compete with the Amazon. So they're doing the sales right before. They're doing everything they can, any type of thing that they can to try to get people in the door to, again, go from red to black. Because a lot of these stocks, a lot of these retailers are in downtrends. Macy's is in a downtrend. You know, you've got the Kohl's which stock, which is in a downtrend. Bed Bath and Beyond is in a downtrend. A lot of these stores like people like. Unfortunately, the stocks are not performing in 2017. Super interesting. You know, another thing I thought was interesting, Melissa, is Adobe Analytics says that over the shopping weekend that mobile devices, either a phone or a tablet accounted for about 40% of the total revenue. And that's a big increase, a 40-some increase, 40% increase or so over last year. So, you know, is this trend going to keep growing at that sort of rate or are we reaching sort of a plateau with mobile device purchasing? I don't think it's plateaued at all. I mean, I don't think that's going to be the case at all. I think it's going to be a growing trend where you're going to see a shift. And that is really the real challenge for brick and mortar retail stores. How are they going to compete with the Amazons of the world? Because it's challenging, it's hard to do it.  I mean, years ago, you used to go to the store and you used to have a fun day out shopping on Black Friday. But nowadays, you know, people don't want to deal with the hassle and you get so many offers online. The thing with having your phone with you is you can look at the app. You can go into the store and you can say, listen, I've got everything right here on my app and Amazon cart. Let me check it out and see which is really cheaper. Stand right there in the aisle at the store before you get in line, before you put the items in your car and you can price check it and say, And if you can get a cheaper price, you just press buy and you buy it online. And if you can, then you want to take the time and you want to get online and you want to wake through the crowds, then you do it. But a lot of people don't want to deal with the hassle anymore about it. And that has been the challenge for a lot of these stocks. And then we were also talking about the Macy's. They had a credit card problem on Friday. Black Friday, the biggest shopping day of the year, their systems went down in the stores. And that was just not really a good thing. And so the only negative about, I will say this, about shopping online is say you put something in your cart. Say you want to get a pair of shoes and you plop it in the cart. It says it's available, but when it goes to check you out or when you go to ship it, they go to ship it, it may be gone. There may be limited inventory. When you're there in the store and you've got that pair of shoes and you put them in your cart, that's it. You've got them, you go check out, you've got it. So that's the negative about shopping online. You might think you have something and then it might be gone like that. And then you don't have it and you can't get it. Yeah, I was wondering about that. I mean, a couple of things you said that piqued my interest. One, I know that there were some credit card issues with Macy's. And so that was unexpected. And two, when you say the people who prefer to go wait in line, it reminds me of that there's a television commercial now where they say for people who like spilling coffee on themselves or people who like revolving turnstiles, it's stop. Yeah, I don't know who really likes to go and just get stuck in lines. So it's at the bottom line, Melissa, it's not too late, is it, for people who haven't started shopping yet this year to go out there and get some deals before the year end? No, it's not too late at all. And that's the whole thing. I mean, these retailers are really going to keep doing discounts and specials and offers between now and pretty much Christmas Eve because they need the sales. This has got to be a big quarter for them. This is some of them that need this quarter to be huge. And Amazon's just going to keep going at a tremendous pace. There's nothing that can stop it and no one that can stop it. But as far as brick and mortar stores, I believe they will continue to do specials and offers from now through the end of the holiday season. You wait till the last minute, you may get even a better offer. Who knows? However, you may not get exactly the size or item that you want, so you take a chance. And that's the one thing. The other interesting statistic that I noticed too from the most recent consumer report was that when people were buying stuff, the top number one item was clothing, which I was surprised was talking about the phones. I was going to say it was going to be electronics, but that was number four. So I was really surprised about that. The clothes was one and electronics was four. In fact, books and CDs and music was three and toys was two, which is typical for holiday. But I was really surprised that phones, televisions, electronics was four. But actually talking about that in reference to stocks, that's another good stock. Best Buy is in a strong uptrend too. Best Buy is in a strong uptrend. Walmart's in a strong uptrend. Amazon's in a strong uptrend. Those are good retailers to buy stocks that are strong. The other ones that I named aren't doing so well. Target's not doing so well right now either. So all of that bucket of stocks are retailers that need this big push. Look for them to have all kinds of deals that Kohl's is doing, the Kohl's cash. And basically it's just like real cash where you get the cash off the item or the discount off the item if you have the Kohl's cash. And Target's doing free shipping up until the end of the year as well, up until the holidays. So they're, you know, stores are going to offer deals, but you may not get exactly what you want or you may not get any of your size. And that's the chance to take. Thank you so much, Melissa Armo for being with us with Stock Swoosh who is helping traders trade smarter. Thank you again. Thank you, thanks for having me and have a great holiday.


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Dr. Bones is the Managing Director of the Natural Gas Initiative here at Stanford. And she has been at Stanford now for a couple of years. Before this, she was in technical and management roles at Chevron for many, many years. And I'd love to hear from Naomi and to hear what NGI is doing in the area of research. And what opportunities there are for folks who are interested in this area to get involved. Naomi, it's over to you. Thank you. Well, welcome to Stanford, everybody. I know this isn't the experience you were hoping for, but we are thrilled to have you. I'm really happy to be here with you today. You know, Professor Dion is a tough act to follow, but I am not going to be talking about a specific technical project, but rather I am going to kind of zoom out and talk to you about the role of natural gas in the energy landscape. So I'm pretty sure that yesterday you heard from both Sally Benson, Chris Field and others probably about the global energy and environmental challenge. One of the things I love about the Stanford energy community is that we really try and look at this problem in a holistic way.  What a challenge and natural gas has a role to play in that. I know most of you are probably coming to Stanford to work on, you know, 100% carbon free solutions. So for the next 30 minutes, I just want you to keep an open mind about the role that natural gas has to play. And indeed the fossil fuel companies, they, you know, have many issues that I know we're all aware of, but I really think that in order for us to solve some of the big decarbonization goals, they have to play our role. So I'm going to talk to you about a few things. The first is really around how we have such an abundance of natural gas. And that provides immediate opportunities for decarbonization. And, you know, in the US, we are very focused on decarbonization and that is the luxury that we have because we have access to energy. That is not the case across the world. And certainly in the developing world, there's a huge role for natural gas to improve the quality of life for millions of people. So I'm going to, or billions of people actually. So I'm going to talk specifically about the role of natural gas for thermal fuels. And a little bit about how natural gas is going to or is starting to interplay with renewables, both in developing economies and in places like California, where we are rapidly decarbonizing. Why do I think that gas is going to continue to play a role for a long time? And finally, I want to emphasize that, you know, the oil and gas industry has a major role to play. And I'm going to talk about some of the technical issues around reaching CO2 emissions reductions that I think the oil and gas industry are really the only players in the room that have the means to do it at the scale necessary. So, you know, hopefully you haven't been living under a rock and you know that in the United States, we've had this huge acceleration and uptick in the amount of natural gas that is being produced. So the graph on the right shows the natural gas production in barrels per day as a function of time. And it's, you know, primarily in the Permian and the Marcellus, but certainly across the country, we're seeing this huge natural gas production uptick. And that directly correlates with a reduction in CO2 emissions. And hopefully yesterday, you touched base on this a little bit and know that natural gas is responsible for displacing coal. So the graph on the left shows the U.S. coal production, the black dots are the data points. And the red is where we were headed before natural gas became available to displace it, primarily in power plants. And the plot on the right is some work from Professor Kopchak's group who works with my program, the Natural Gas Initiative, looking at the avoided CO2 emissions. If you look at using natural gas with CCS, with renewables and how that all plays out. And we're talking about gigatons of avoided CO2 emissions. So we know that fuel switching from coal to natural gas works. And in the U.S., we've been really successful at doing this. But elsewhere, there is still a lot of coal production. So the plot on the left shows the projected coal production. And you can see that it is expected to increase substantially in the next 20 years or so. Mostly in China and India and mostly because of the cost factor. So coal is locally available and very affordable. So right now in Asia, there's currently about 300 gigawatts of coal generation capacity power plants under construction. And that's roughly what we have left in the United States right now. So this is a very serious issue because coal provides about 38% of global power, but it's responsible for 75% of the emissions. So anything we can do to displace coal is a good thing. So how do we make natural gas cheaper than coal? So one of the things that we work on in the natural gas initiative is looking at things like carbon pricing. There are a number of different philosophies on how you could implement a carbon price, whether it's a tax or a cap and trade. This is some work from Mark Thurba, who is in the School of Economics, and shows that even at a very reasonable carbon price of about $20 to $25 per ton of CO2, gas plants start looking as attractive, if not more attractive than coal plants. And the quote on the right, I don't expect you to read all the numbers, but just to show you that this is all of the current carbon pricing schemes that are currently in effect throughout the world. So there's about 50 countries or states or territories where there is some kind of carbon pricing scheme. So the y-axis here is the carbon price, and the x-axis is the volume or the percentage of the carbon that is being addressed through the pricing scheme. And this was from a 2020 World Bank study. So we are looking at doing this, but again, in the United States and in other developed countries, we have the luxury of thinking about decarbonization as our primary target. But of course, that's not true throughout the world, and energy poverty is a reality. I'm sure many of you have traveled to countries where you've seen this firsthand. And for me, it's unacceptable that we live in a world where, you know, in places like the United States where we're squandering energy and then there are people who are living in absolute poverty. And of course, energy demand is only going to increase. So this is a map showing how energy demand will change between 2016 and 2040. And so you can see the United States, Europe and Japan are expected to reduce their energy demand. But the rest of the world is greatly going to increase. So of course, Africa and India and China in particular are on our minds when we think about energy access and changing energy demands. And we know that wealthy countries have access to energy. That's just a fact. So there are still upwards of a billion people without access to electricity. So in places like India, great strides have been made. So now if you look at electricity in India, what you see is that actually 100% of the country has access. But of course, that means that your village might have access and you would have access if you had the means to pay for it. So even though, you know, we have to be careful about how we think of this and how we measure it. Having access doesn't mean that you actually have electricity because it's a function of whether or not you can afford it. But nevertheless, India has made great strides. China has made great strides. But Sub-Saharan Africa, which is the big yellow bar at the bottom here, is in a ever-worsening state, actually. So in Africa, the situation really hasn't improved. We know that one in two people that are going to be added to the world's population in the next 30 years are in Africa. And there really hasn't been a lot of great progress on the electricity front. So that's something that we are working on actively in the Natural Gas Initiative to come up with innovative ways to solve some of these energy issues. So I think it's really interesting what's happening in India. And I just wanted to take a moment to talk about the interplay between gas and renewables. So in India, I'm sure many of you know, renewables are set to generate almost 50% of all the electricity by 2030. That's remarkable, right? Because in California, we're at something like 35%. So they've really kind of embraced the renewable energy transition. But in order for them to have reliable electricity, and typically that's measured as a function of reliability as a percentage. So 99.97% is a kind of standard number. That's the reliability of electricity in developed countries. They need 12 hours of storage, which is going to cost $675 billion. So that's a quarter of India's GDP. And so their government has actively embraced gas as kind of the backup for renewables, if you will. The reliable backup that allows for energy electricity to be continuous. Because unreliable energy, you know, if you look at places like Pakistan, they have electricity. It's 100% access almost, but it's very unreliable and it has absolutely crippled their economy. Their manufacturing and industrial sectors in particular suffer greatly because of the reliability factor. So India is thinking ahead about this, and they now have a target for 15% natural gas consumption by 2030. And they're investing $60 billion on gas infrastructure, which when you think about it, it's kind of a drop in the ocean compared to the $675 billion that you'd have to invest in storage to go along with the high renewable share. The graph in the bottom just shows the increasing imports of liquefied natural gas. So India receives a lot of imports mostly from Qatar because of the close distance. But certainly as the United States begins doing more imports, some of those will also be going to India. So we talked a little bit about electricity, and I want to also talk about cooking fuels. So the number of people without electricity is around a billion. There's almost three billion more people, or many of them are the same people, I guess. It's kind of an overlapping venn diagram that require clean thermal fuels. So they're using wood and biomass and four million people die every year from this type of indoor air pollution associated with cooking. So I mean, I was shocked when I heard this number and to put it in perspective, that's more than eight malaria and tuberculosis combined. And again, the graph on the right kind of shows the breakdown of where this is the main issue. India is actually doing much better now. So this was data from the last study that the IEA did on this in 2017. In the last few years, India has put in government run subsidies to get LPG propane tanks, just like the ones you use for your barbecues, to people in India. And this has really kind of been a successful program that has really, really sort of changed the death rate in India associated with indoor air pollution. Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia remain concerning and certainly in Africa, again, as the population is increasing and no real solutions are being put in place, it becomes even more of a concern. So in my program, we kind of look at this in all sorts of shapes and sizes. You know, it's very easy to sort of jump straight to the bottom picture, which is this huge LNG import facility. It probably costs $10 billion of capital investment to put in place. It requires the cooperation of countries, governments, companies, and it's got a very long time frame. But some of the most successful programs in addressing some of these issues are actually at a much smaller scale. So I mentioned the government subsidy program in India as picture on the left there, this guy delivering the propane tanks on his motorcycle. And we've also done some work with some really kind of interesting entrepreneurial companies in Africa that they have a pay-as-you-go propane tank system that they deliver out to villages. So that's a picture from, this is B-Box, but there's actually a number of companies that are now doing that that's very successful. So, you know, I think keeping an open mind and the reason I wanted to mention this is I think you're, you know, looking for projects and companies that you want to get involved with, I think scale matters. And sometimes the best solutions are at the smaller scale. So thinking about these problems in different ways is really important. All right, so that's a little bit about the developing world. So let's jump back to California. And I just want to sort of highlight the main issue on the table here. So here's a timeline of California policies for greenhouse gas reductions. So nobody is disputing that, you know, this is a great set of goals and we need to have goals and targets. So I think up to about 2035, for me it all makes sense, right? We've got, you know, a 60% renewables goal. We've got a target for about 5 million electric vehicles. I'm like, okay, you know, this all seems manageable. But it's what happens after 2035 that I think is concerning. So we now have SB 100, which is 100% zero carbon electricity goal by 2045. So I am many, many people at Stanford. This is the space that we're working in because it is unclear how we're going to meet these goals. So having goals is one thing, but the pathways to get there are unclear right now. And we need to be explicit in how we're going to meet these goals. I mentioned the cost of storage in India for renewables. Well, that's also true here. So we could not afford as a state to move to 100% renewables and expect everyone in our state to still have access to energy. And so those issues around affordability and social equity are really emphasized here. And to put this in further perspective, right, we're, you know, I think about the, I've been thinking about the electric car evolution. And 5 million EVs roughly requires doubling the electricity from our energy supply. And roughly about 70% of our energy comes from natural gas. So we're talking about, you know, moving to higher shares of renewables whilst increasing the overall output of our electrical supply system. And if we now talk about 2050 goals of around 15 million electric vehicles, that's quadrupling our current energy supply from the electricity grid. So these are very real problems that need to be solved. And one of the things that my program and pre-court and others have been working on is looking at hydrogen to solve some of these issues. And, you know, it's really interesting. So I worked at Chevron for many years and back in like the, I don't know, 2000, something like that. Hydrogen was the latest fad and everybody had research centers set up around it. And then it died a quick death when the oil price dropped. And it's kind of made this resurgence. And I think many of us feel that it's different this time because we now have a clear vision of how hydrogen could help us. I think back in 2000, we were like, oh, hydrogen seems interesting. Like, I'm sure we can figure out a way to use this, but we didn't really understand what role it was able or going to play. And now we do, right? So particularly for heavy duty transportation, hydrogen has some really interesting and exciting prospects. And of course, you know, the natural gas initiative is so involved with this because right now 70% of hydrogen is made from natural gas. So we're looking at ways to make that 100% carbon free using carbon capture and storage and other techniques. I'm a co-instructor for the Stanford hydrogen seminar class in the winter. So I'll put in a plug for that. I construct that with Sally Benson and Jimmy Chen from pre-court. And so, you know, there's lots of, I think, pathways within this that are going to become more and more important. So, you know, for the foreseeable future, oil and coal remain about the same and new energy. So from the increasing population and increasing energy demand in general, it's going to come from renewables and gas. So gas is around to stay and it's our job to make sure that it is as clean as it can possibly be and that we consider, you know, the future and how we're going to eventually phase it out as carbon, completely carbon free technologies come around. But, you know, no doubt that gas is going to be around for the long term. So one of the things that I think is really important is if we're going to be using gas, let's do it as clean as we possibly can. And there's been a lot in the press over the last five years. I would say it's really kind of increased around methane emissions. We have a big team. It's one of our biggest focus areas in the Natural Gas Initiative, looking at how we can better detect methane emissions using a variety of technologies. We have some papers that we've written on using aeroplane detection methodologies and how we can mitigate it. How can we ensure that we are limiting the release of methane as much as possible? But given that we are, you know, in this world where we have increasing emissions, I really, you know, want to emphasize that I think we need to work with the fossil fuel industries, the oil and gas companies. And I'm going to talk a little bit now about carbon capture and storage. So this is a graph that shows the amount of carbon dioxide in gigatons that would have to be captured and stored in order to achieve the two-degree Paris Accord scenario. And it's broken down into, you know, various sectors, power industry and other, but that's sort of irrelevant. So right now, we capture and store globally about 30 megatons a year. So this is a gigaton scale, so it doesn't show up. It is miniscule. But the technology exists. I worked on a project at Chevron where we captured carbon in a depleted saline aquifer. It is completely doable. Now, what we want to aim for in the next 10 years is being able to capture somewhere around three gigatons. And it turns out that three gigatons a year of carbon dioxide is roughly equivalent to the volume that is extracted in global oil production. So it's about 30 billion barrels a year. So in my mind, there's this huge opportunity as we produce oil and gas to fill the depleted reservoirs with carbon dioxide as a means to reduce the carbon that's being emitted into the atmosphere until we get to the point where, you know, maybe some of these negative carbon technologies that people are working on are developed. In the short term, I really believe that this CCES is really the only realistic option for meeting our two-degree scenario.  So the oil and gas industry has a lot of existing knowledge of the subsurface. We already have these reservoirs mapped out. Much of the infrastructure is already in place. It's actually relatively simple to take an old oil and gas well and turn it into a carbon dioxide well. And we have the pore space to accommodate these huge volumes. And it's been done safely and effectively for many, many years. There's also the upside, you know, the oil and gas industry as much as we wish they were altruistic or not. So they have the potential for improving their production by injecting the carbon dioxide to push out the oil and gas. So this is just one of the things that we're working on. I just want to say a couple of words about my programs and the Natural Gas Initiative. We have about 40 research groups from Stanford. They range from nuts and bolts science and engineering through to business economics and policy. And then we have a consortium of industry partners. All of this is on the website. So you can just go to ngi.stanford.edu if you want any more information. So we have seven focus areas. Again, a range from chemistry and science and engineering through to global markets and governance. And we hold a number of events. This year was a little light. Obviously, we had a lot of postponing happening with COVID. But we're now planning a few different events. The next year focused on methane detection, flaring solutions, energy access, hydrogen. And usually we have about 10 events a year. And you are all welcome. So it's invitation only. But feel free to reach out to me anytime. And I guess with that, I know it's tough to engage with the community when it's in this COVID virtual world. But I'm always open to having a Zoom chat or touching base. I've worked with lots of students on specific projects. But also just if you want to have a coffee chat about the energy landscape, I am always happy to do that. So I will pause. And maybe we have a few minutes for quick questions. Folks, we have time for a couple of questions if people would like to raise their hand. Catherine, Bernard has a question. Catherine, go ahead, please. Hi there. Thank you very much for the presentation. Learned a lot. So at the end, when you're talking about carbon capture and sequestration, obviously this will have a lot of cost.  That's a great question. Yeah, I can. So there is an initiative called the Oil and Gas Climate Initiative. And all of the big oil companies have committed $10 million to that fund. So that organization is actively seeking carbon capture and storage technologies. They are looking at investing in small companies. Stanford has a carbon capture and storage initiative and is actively working with a couple of oil companies. I don't think I'm at liberty to say which ones yet, but on specific projects. Because it's obviously the oil and gas industry is going to have to reinvent itself. And I worked at Chevron for many years, and I understand the industry. But my greatest hope is that they move from being the evil fossil fuel producers to being the climate carbon sequesters. And it's really the only option on the table that could be done at scale and in the short time frame that's necessary. We need to move on this in the next 10 years. So I'm not suggesting that this is the only thing that we should be working on, but it is the only thing right now that can move forward. And everybody sees that. So I think funding through programs like OGCI is only going to increase. Thank you, Yomi. We have one more minute for a question by Matt. Matt, go ahead. Yeah, OK. This is going to be a tough question to answer in a minute. But I guess I find one of the difficulties when discussing natural gas and renewables tied together is that the conversation tends to drift to either no renewables are the solution or no oil and gas is the solution. So how, in your opinion, what's the way to kind of bridge the gap in that conversation to kind of allow those two sides to come together? Yeah, and I think it's a very charged conversation, right? So people on both sides feel like they're fighting for everything. And I think, for me, when I talk to state legislators, I just adopt a really pragmatic approach to this, right? And that diagram that shows the different things that we're trying to balance. So we've got the environment, national security, affordability. I'm missing one, but I think helping people think through that is really important. And we live in a very privileged world where everybody is just assuming that when they flick the light switch, it'll continue to work. And right now, we are not in a position where we can do that with 100% renewable. So we have to think about this in a more nuanced way. So certainly, one of the reasons that NGI was set up was to try and have that unbiased, scientifically based perspective, right? So that we're not biased one way or the other, but this is what the science is telling us, that we need to have a gradual transition in order to manage all of those competing factors.