It's a presentation of TFNN. The Tom O'Brien Show is produced every business day. Tom takes your phone calls toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER>. Let's go to our man, Alan Homo-Sasa. What's going on, brother? It's, isn't it wonderful? I went ahead and invested in your, uh, Tiger Dollars, and I went ahead and got your gold report for a year, and also your morning, your, your call letter and stuff like that. And I got over a 50% return in one day, not counting, uh, everything else, but I just want to thank you. Tom's not perfect, but he tells you how to put your stops in and keeps your losses small. You can take your small losses, but then all of a sudden you'll be like Dave Bruce, and you'll pay the whole month, I mean a big home run, and put the money in your pocket. Okay, brother. You're awesome, man. Thank you. Now, Tom O'Brien. Welcome, folks. This is Tom O'Brien of TFNN. We go five days a week. We go seven hours a day. We go 24 hours a day on the internet at TFNN.com. Always remember, folks, whatever you think about, you bring about whatever you focus on grows, what everyone's having a great day, safe day. Let's make it a great night, folks. Don't make assumptions. Learn to ask questions. There's always better to ask questions than make an assumption. Have the courage to ask questions until as clear as you can be. Once you hear the answer to that question, you won't have to make the assumption because you won't know the truth. I'm not going to lie. Let's take a look at it out here. We have the Dow Industries up 144, NASDAQ up 98, S&P's up 26. Gold. Gold contract trading up $8.50 at $18.72. We have Silver Flat. $21.92 an ounce. Light Sweet Crew down $0.47. $85.91 a barrel. Notes and bonds. A 10-year note. Down five ticks trading $107.22. The 30-year down two at $111.31. And King Dollar. King Dollar's down $240. Ticks trading out at a price point of $105.83. I'm going to show you a second. It broke. It's uptrend. Euros at $105. Yens at $148. British Pounds at $122 to $1. U.S. Dollar. Our phone number is<PHONE_NUMBER>. Give us a call, folks. I know it's going on in your world. So in the world of the S&Ps, let's take a look at them. What do you have? Well, you're going to have a slow grind here. That's what you're going to have. And that's just enough to get everyone totally, you know, basically on both sides of the market saying, no, no, no, it's going to break down. Yes, yes, yes, it's going to go up. Bottom line. What do you have with the spy out here today? The spy just got inside this larger range. That's another indication that we're going up for the highs, okay? Bottom line. We got inside that 430-301. You're at 434-925. We're going to the queues which are leading the charge. What do you have with the queues? Queues out here, they were only under that swing point for one day. And what you have out here, the queues are trading up $257, $369, $13, and we go to the notes and bonds. Why the notes and bonds? Because the bottom line is that if interest rates have topped, my take is that interest rates have topped. So we'll see how the shakes out. But bottom line, if the 10-year, right now, rejected lower price today at $107.10. You're at $107.22. It's only a couple of days up, okay? What we had done though is that we had come down and didn't break out the bottom last Thursday. You can see what happened here. You came down hard. You didn't get to the bottom. The bottom was $106.03. We got to a price point of $106.06. And it had light of volume rejected it. That's always a good indication that it just might have a bottom coming in. So we'll see how that shakes out. More so than anything though, it has to do with that, because if in fact the rates start going down, you'll see the weaker dollar. And what you have here, you can see what we have out here, the bottom line is that since July 14th, the dollar hadn't been down more than two days. In this particular case, we're down five days, but what we also just did is that we also broke its uptrend. You broke the channel line. So now the question is going to be, okay, it's a nice break. It's a nice break. Down 255 ticks, not bad, it's a quarter of a penny. You can see it's a size of break. So when you break something like this, your first get-go is right there. You're saying, okay, we're at 105, 800. Now 104, 690 is going to be a lot of support, because if you break that, then you're going back inside the lower range. That's one way of looking at it. Another way of looking at it is that when you do break a channel line, guess what, you know, this is all the Bud Rawls deal. Now watch how this goes, right? You, let's picture this, you can go down to that level, then you've got a counter-trend bounce, and then it goes back up and tests that channel, then you fall apart. Either way, bottom line, my take is that this market wants higher price, the metals want higher price, and we'll see it shakes out. Take a look at the gold market out here. You know, there's not enough volume in this gold market right now. 148,000 contracts. I want to see something like 215, 220. That's when you know you get some real buys inside the gold market. You're up 8 bucks, but gold can get down like 20 bucks and about a heartbeat. So, inside the NDX100, let's take a look at the strength of what's running the NDX. Oh, look at this, what a joke that is. So you've got Lucent, the car maker, up 7.5%, 8.5%. You've got Dollar Tree up 3.5%, and Electronic Arts is up 3.2%. Taken away from it. Netflix is down 2.5%, you get it fast at all. Yeah, which is off 1%. Inside the Dow Industrials. Let's take a look at the Dow Industrials. This would be point-wise now. You have Boeing up 33 points. Home Depot, they're putting 33 positive points in the Dow. Home Depot, 27. Caterpillar, 17. Visa, 15. Taken away from it. UnitedHealth, 12. Travelers, 7. If we give it an update on the Friedman trial, this guy is this guy, you know, the difference between him and Madoff is that this is a young guy that's going to be going away for a long period of time.  You know, that's the bottom line. But what has happened is that you get these two that flipped meaning that they're now working for the prosecution and going away forever, folks. I don't know like, I guess the difference is that if he's 30 years old, who knows, he's going away forever, though. This is a Madoff all over again, except that it's a lot more money. Stay right there, folks. Good job, man. It's the battle of the Chapman coming up. We have the Dow, and that shows up 147 Nasdaq's up 96. S&P's up 25. We're coming right back. 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For all the details and to start your 30 day Tiger Forex report subscription today visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN Educating Investors Are you ready to take your trading to the next level? Introducing Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter Market Insights, your key to successful active trading. Tom O'Brien, renowned for his expertise in the financial markets, has designed Market Insights to be your daily guide to profitable trades. Tom publishes his daily Market Insights newsletter every market day before the market open, along with updates when warranted. Stay ahead of the game with Tom's real-time analysis and trade recommendations delivered straight to your inbox. Whether you're a season trader or just starting out, Market Insights comes with a 30-day money-back guarantee for all new subscribers, so you have nothing to risk. Don't miss out on this opportunity to revolutionize your trading game. Head over to TFNN.com right now to join the thousands of traders who have already experienced the power of Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter Market Insights firsthand. TFNN Educating Investors Are you ready to take your trading to the next level? Introducing Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter Market Insights firsthand. TFNN Educating Investors Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at TFNN.com. When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from Veteran Day Trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to, and you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos, and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today. TFNN.com Educating Investors. Call now, toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER> Welcome back folks of Dow. Dow Industries right now trading up $149, you get the NASDAQ up $100, SAPs are up $27. Let's get over to our man Mr. Basil Chapman as we do each and every Tuesday. And don't forget folks, Basil is an outstanding show here every trading day. 10-11 Eastern Standard Time also has a great newsletter, the opening call. Now it's very easy to get Basil's newsletter folks from over to our website at TFNN. Going to newsletters, you see it right on the left-hand side, the opening call. You can get the opening call for one month for $149. You get it for six months, a $695 which is a savings of $199 or 22%. And you get it for one year for $1195 which is a savings of $593 of 33%. Now they all come folks with a 30-day money back guarantees and no matter which one you pick, if it works for you, awesome. For some reason it doesn't, 29th day just cancel it. And Basil has a huge amount of archives out there that you can really understand how to ride that wave. Basil Chapman, what's going on? Well what's going on is what's going off. I was in the middle of a show I was able to set some time aside to do the heavy show and Larry's suffering from Covid and it was going on suddenly everything just went off, everything and then I finally got through the Comcast and it turns out someone had cut the cable and they got to spend a couple of hours replacing it. Isn't that wild how we live and die by cable and internet? You can't believe, yeah and I've got backups and everything but I've got my laptop when I'm out of town and I don't see it anywhere around I can use my laptop it's all set up but it's set up to go to my desktop which has my charts that I use all the time. So I'm standing at a Dow that says, Dow up 185 I'm not sure what it's up right now but 144. So I thought I'd just do this quickly because I wanted to give an overview. So Basil, where are you? I've got an update. So you were going to say?  No, I'm actually right here in my office. Oh, okay, okay, I got it. You can cut off what I'm saying that when I use my laptop I can be anywhere in the world and connect but I connect to my desktop and my home office. So we're looking at the Dow right now one of the things I had looked at quite often was the low that was made on the 25th of May in the Dow and the high that was made on August 1st at 35,679 which actually is where we went short to Dow and we still short that position. Oh, I'm looking, we're back. I think I got my internet back but it's too late. I'm looking at you on my laptop. So that was the exact number of days to October the 6th on Friday. That's crazy. I used bar symmetry in a cup formation. The bottom from the left side high can go to the right side high in the same number of bars and the arm formation from the bottom to the top and then back again is exactly the same. I actually have to make you look.  There it is. That's all right, I'm just actually I see what you're saying. So I put up a chart showing the audience what you're talking about. Cool, man. I'll do that on my show tomorrow on my Tiger Technicians how I did it this morning as well. So it's the exact number of bars so with that in mind I was preparing that we should start a long but just a trading position which we have now. We actually have the three times long Dow because I thought we try to want to maximize whatever we can because how the big test is of the 200-period moving average is going to be very important if we turn down from there and it hit it exactly today at 30,000, 8,000, 98,000. So what happens after this we've taken a little bit off to garner some really quick very nice profits in that position. Then the other one was the QQQ the NDX100 I've been using the 9-period moving average over or under the 14-period moving average as a kind of a benchmark for the turns and the Dow when we got that turn on exactly the first of August and the Dow to the downside I was using on balance volume for that plus some other indicators but the 9-period moving average took about 11 sessions before turn negative in the daily. Well I've been looking at this and the weekly chart of the QQQ the NDX100 trading vehicle hasn't turned pink it's still green if there is going to be a bounce I'm sure that it's going to incorporate hack which is the which we've missed the buy signal even though I wanted to get it we missed it and that's the cybersecurity ETF it was acting so well on Friday early morning and the S&P had already made a low three days on Wednesday two days before that so we went along the QQQ which is three times along the Q's just on a short short term trading position and one of the reasons is if that weekly chart holds well it means that it hasn't even given a sell signal yet and that's a good sign and you've had this rotation through the big cap so because the hack the stocks that I like and hack are also in the QQQ I thought this would be a good opportunity to do that and then I was looking at the financials and they've been acting so poorly but I thought if this if the bonds are able to get some kind of traction to the upside then the financials should benefit a little bit but I didn't want to go to the standard banks we usually go to Bank of America I said no I think we need to go to an electronic banking system be a little bit more contemporary because it has the the panache it has that extra you know something interesting about it because it's mostly using high technology that we bought I mean I'm not going to give the name to my subscribers because we just got it and it's done fabulously but we got a very low priced internet banking stock and that's been going well so I'm being very selective on the moves and even more importantly is that the dollar even though it's pulled back and I don't know what the dollar is doing right now but that does help because I drew in I think I've seen you do channel lines in the dollar and it was just testing a very important trend line right now so I think if the dollar I haven't got any technical indicators and say the dollar is going to weaken a lot I see that it can pull back a little bit and we are along the dollar the dollar starts to pull back I think it can help the general market because they have been I wouldn't say tied exactly together but the strength of the dollar has been impacting the market so yeah so I thought I'd give a little bit of an overview here you know it's funny Basil when I was listening to your show this morning and folks you know where Basil lives is a beautiful place man great schools just a great city I used to go out there all the time because it has one of the best bagel shops and Basil was talking about how many Teslas were in his neighborhood and they'd probably kick you out Basil if you came in with a muscle cock you're correct about that I mean I look around and they almost as common as the Priests I mean it's very interesting but they have dropped the prices and if you look at the chart it really was the only electric electric vehicle company that has done so well in the street I think of them as the old guys on the block because they've been around for a while and as fast as anything in those Teslas man oh my god well listen Basil thanks for coming on man I really appreciate it and you have a great night safe night glad you got your internet back and I look forward to the show tomorrow thank you very much Tom you too stay right there folks we get the dial up on 35 8 recipes of 26 are coming right back Steve Rhodes started his trading career as a student almost 20 years ago and the student has now become the master Steve won the prestigious timer of the year award in 2018 and barely missed that mark again in 2019 finishing it number two for the year an amazing accomplishment Steve Rhodes is committed to sharing his techniques and knowledge with anyone who wants to learn and he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge every day in his mastering probability newsletter Steve's award winning newsletter mastering probability is delivered every trading day with 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trading up $130 and has a 95 S&P up 25 and let's get over to our manager Tim Ord folks and don't forget you can reach Tim every trading day at www.Od-Oracle.com www.Od-Oracle.com if you've been following Tim you know as these interviews have been taking place the bottom line we'll let him give us an update but the bottom line is that I think that sign of strength coming up the bottom action out here Tim Ord what's going on how you doing I'm doing great man yourself no good good good good I sent over a bunch of charts maybe too many but no it's not too many man listen man after you know the last time we had talked and you know you felt you said specifically I think it's here I think it's right here sure enough the next day man bang we had that sign of strength in the S&P man was pretty cool right well actually we can we got some charts kind of leading up to this but maybe we just go to that sign of strength chart that let's just do that first that just for right now let's say this bicycle is legitimate yes so what was that Tim wouldn't you go to chart four four okay one two three four I got it okay cool all right so we can go back you know if we got time we'll go back and how we create this signal but the latest signal that was created is a right signal running out of the whole thing depends on this rally you get panicked and you have to get a sign of strength you can do that on a bigger time frame to use McCall and Oskler in summation index you can also do it on a shuttered time frame and what we're looking at is a shuttered time frame so what I use for that is a lag breast thrust we talked about that before and so this is more of a shorter term type thing you got to have a selling climax I guess and there's a lag breast thrust indicator needs to get blow point four okay and it did that first part of October and all those red lines going back to 2020 are the times when that indicator actually got below minus 20 and there's some other ones in there but they didn't have a sign of strength and I'll explain that in a second but now you need a sign of weakness and right after that you need a sign of strength within 10 days and a sign of strength on the lag breast thrust indicator so you need to go below point four then within 10 days you need to go above point six okay and this is all to do that indicator is the NYSE advancing issues times the total issues and that's a 10 day average that's the lag breast thrust so that indicator needs to go below point four up to point six within 10 days so I sent this chart over it got below point and I didn't write that date down it's nice reports on actually I wrote down the date and this one I didn't but we did have it here over the last I think it was last Thursday you were on Thursday you were talking about a Thursday and then we got the sign of strength on Friday yes right five strength on Friday yep and they got point four nine as of today we're at point point five four needs to get point six so by next Thursday oh that's cool to know okay let me get this straight that's really freaking cool okay yeah it could happen today I don't know what number is going to be today but this doesn't update until after the close but it's got way till next Thursday so in general this rally has to have advanced decline pretty strong over a 10 day period for this lag breast thrust indicator to trigger and I triggered you know that big bottom we had back in starting April 2022 to April 2023 yes we had actually three swag breast thrust indicators you know the red line is selling climax and the blue line is a blind climax yet three in that time frame so that was a good indication that the market was building a bullish bottom not a bullish top right and it's one of the reasons why I kind of remain bullish and also there's some other stuff too but we're not talking about the other stuff we're talking about this is a lag breast thrust indicator so anyhow we got till next Thursday for this indicator to get point point six or above if it does you can have short-term consolations but basically you have to remain bullish you know sometimes they pull back sometimes they don't so after wait you see but probably support it 4200 is not going to be broken so pretty cool you can but that's probably strong support and it pretty much on the money so we're starting I think a rally that could last a year in well you know it's amazing Tim right think about this for a second right that you had the sign of strength on Friday and then you have over the weekend Hamas you know attacking Israel and the S&P's just shaking off I mean that's I mean that it's a deviant but that said quite a bit also right I mean yeah right it's what Normie Berry turns out to be bullish yes you know the sign of strength tells the story so this market especially if you get to point six wants to go up I know I know so we're not so let's let's flip to another chart let's flip to chart five five okay let me just one two three okay I have it yep all right all right so this is a monthly chart yes and I think we show this in Ford I was talking about 420 is being support and the reason why that's kind of a sport language is basically the previous highs of April 2022 right April 2023 it kind of hit that top area and that found support what I'm thinking is happening here is the head and shoulders bottom forming the left shoulder formed in late 2021 early 2022 up around that 442 to 446 right I'm thinking we're forming the right shoulder right now and the whole thing is breaking of that neckline the neckline comes in around 4600 so we have a sign of strength through that 4600 then this head and shoulders bottom you take the bottom of the head up to the neckline you add that onto the neckline you come up with 5700 I know it's a huge head and shoulders man yeah but this is all a conjecture right now this is what I'm looking on the bigger picture that's right but you know 5700 from where we are right now is 30% higher that's a long ways up it's pretty intense I can see that too you know even yeah man because it's it's actually pretty pretty D-R-E-T-T-Y this formation here it really is let me pull this over here one second I'm going to pull that over for the audience so they can actually see what you're looking at I mean that's about as clean as you can get man look at this thing actually I'll bring it back let's see I don't need to bring it back there you can kind of see this I mean that's pretty laid out man it really is the bottom of the COVID crash back in March 2020 and you go to the high of you know 2022 you only did a 50% retrace I know I know stay right there folks Tim and I are going to be coming right back you can reach Tim at www.Ord-Oracle.com www.Ord-Oracle.com www.Ord-Oracle.com www.Ord-Oracle.com www.Ord-Oracle.com www.Ord-Oracle.com www.Ord-Oracle.com www.Ord-Oracle.com www.Ord-Oracle.com www.Ord-Oracle.com www.Ord-Oracle.com www.Ord-Oracle.com www.Ord-Oracle.com www.Ord-Oracle.com www.Ord-Oracle.com www.Ord-Oracle.com www.Ord-Oracle.com www.Ord-Oracle.com www.Ord-Oracle.com educating investors. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks, and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices.  First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the direction shares carefully before investing. The prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares. To obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus, please contact direction shares at<PHONE_NUMBER>. The prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing. An investment in the funds is subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor, Foreside Fund Services, LLC. This program is brought to you by Vista Gold, traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. Welcome back, folks. Tim Boyd, Tom O'Brien. We do appreciate you growling and prowling with us out here. We have the Dow Industries up 132, NASDAQ's up 97, S&Ps are up 25. We were just looking at the potential head and shoulders, Tim, and the neckline. Now, when is this neckline set up again? I got a neckline on the chart there around 4,600. 4,600. Okay, cool, man. Okay. Yeah, so 4,600. We're always from it, and maybe I'm putting the cart for the horse, but if this thing starts falling in place like I think it may, which is that the wag thrust gets to 0.6, then my idea is that market is just going to keep going wine higher. To get through that 4,600 on the SPX, you'll need a sign of strength. So you'll need power to get through that. So you might see some sort of an explosion's wrong word, but sign of strength. You need to get through the neckline. So I'm thinking the market's going to actually pick up the energy as we head into year in. Right, because you know it's interesting, Tim. You talked about the aspect of the percentage's retracement from the last low that we had that was established out here to the low. Now, we didn't even do a 0.382 retracement, which is amazing. You know what I mean? Oh, from that last low in October to the current low? Yeah, right. Yeah, you're right. I don't want that. I should have done it, but I didn't do it. I didn't think about it. No, that's just wrong. I mean, it's not retracement. Right. Cool, man. So yeah, that could be the halfway point of the next move up. Right. So, you know, it's still higher than where we are. Yes, big time, big time. So yeah, it looks good.  So, you know, don't fight the markets, those things. That's a fact. So what do you want to go? We can go and show you how I created that signal or we're going to flip over to the gold market. Whatever you want to do, tell me where to go. Got a few questions on the gold market. Let's go to chart number six. Okay. And the bottom window is it seems to really draw the good conclusions of what the market, what this gold market kind of does as far as the equity market is concerned. Okay. The bottom window is a 50-day average of the GDX up, down, volume percent. And I went back to 2010 and every time that market, that indicator got below minus 20, I circled in red. So you got a lot of red stuff going, a red circle is going across. The last time we got the last signal came on June 15th, 2023. And when this indicator hits below minus 20, the market does either goes sideways or modestly down. It can go either way. Modestly down, it doesn't like crash. It just does go down some, but it's, you know, so it either flip sideways or goes down some. And the average length of time I went back and actually ran the times on all these indicators when that's got below, before the actual turn up. So anyhow, when it hits minus 20, the downtrend is done and either the market flip sideways or goes just down modestly. When it turns up, usually a thing went from two months to six months. Okay. And most of them around three or four months, but there is one in there at six months and some are just over two months. But all of them at least went two months. Most of them around three or four months. There was one at six months. So the four month period is October 15th, which is next week. So I'm thinking we're about in the sweet spot as time is concerned for this GDX to turn up. Wow. Okay. So, okay. Now, I didn't do this one either, but it's on tonight's report. When it hits below minus 20, in all cases going back to 2010, this indicator at a minimum got to plus 10. Okay. So that'd be the minimum upside target. So as we're putting this, right now it's minus 10.41. So what I'm saying is when it gets above plus 10, it can go higher, but at minimum it gets to plus 10 before the market either peers out or keeps going higher. We don't know which, we'll have to wait and see when we get there. That's pretty cool to know. Right. Exactly. Yeah. It's good to know if we get to plus 10. Okay.  Right. Some have some haven't. But they'll, so this is a safe place. So you already know that time wise, you're running out of time to go sideways because most of it could do is six months. That would run into October, November, November, December, but most of them are three to four months. So we're in that sweet spot. So yes. And we got minus plus 10 to go. So we got, we got my opinion room to run, I guess you might say. Yeah, exactly. So, you know, let's go to one more chart. Okay. Chart seven. Yeah. And we talked about this on the show. This is a shorter term timeframe. This is the 18 day average of the up, down, boring mass find indicator. So it takes a, it, all the blue area on the chart here shows times when this indicator is above minus 10. When it's above minus 10, you're using an uptrend and we're coming in around plus five plus six right now. Or excuse me, minus five, minus six, but needs to say above minus 10 that have the uptrend continue. What this indicator is good at doing is it shows it does pretty good with divergences. If you notice on GDX, which is the top window, we hit a low in August and we hit a lower low in early October. Yes. Well, if you look on the indicators and both those indicators, which is the bottom two windows, both made higher lows. Right. And if you go back and look over the times, I marked all those times when the market was making a lower low and these indicators were making higher lows and they all turned out to be worthwhile bombs. And actually, same thing usually happens at tops, which is that top we had back in. I know. Yep. April, May period, the market made a double top and that indicator went right through the floor.  So, but you know, you kind of learned to use indicators to go along. That top was pretty incredible, meaning that, you know, what had happened folks is that the second run, you know, almost took out the first high swing, but yet this indicator that Tim's talking about was saying, get out of the way right now. And that's pretty about as intense as you can get, Tim. Meaning, really cool. Yeah. So, actually, even look back in that 2022, that May as the February, the April high of 2022, so made a higher high. Yep. And that if you look at both those indicators, they made lower highs. Oh, yeah. No, that's what I'm one of. I know. I know. That's amazing, man, because, particularly because when that higher high was coming in, it was coming in fast and furious, man. But yeah, guess what? The indicator was saying, see you later. Wow. Yeah. See you later. So, I don't know what's going to happen here. You know, this is, you know, if this run is just starting, which, you know, I've been kind of calling it way too early, but the indicators were record. I thought it might be only two months going sideways. You know, we're going on three months going sideways. And will this one stick? You know, it's about due time that it should. This rally may stick. That's what I'm saying. Right. Because we've got divergence and we've got some stuff. And I remember, I think it was a week before last week, I bought call options because I got a few nasty emails. They're pretty good at picking up, buying, selling, buying calls. So they're working out for me right now. I love it. Well, listen, Tim, this is always a pleasure. You have a great one, a safe one. We look forward to speaking on Thursday, Tim. Hey, thank you. Thank you. Stay right there, folks. Come right back. Are you ready to take your trading to the next level? Introducing Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter, Market Insights, your key to successful active trading. Tom O'Brien, renowned for his expertise in the financial markets, has designed Market Insights to be your daily guide to profitable trades. Tom publishes his daily Market Insights newsletter every market day before the market open, along with updates when warranted. 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When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to, and you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos, and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today. TFNN.com, educating investors. I didn't see USA Today, but if you actually get a financial news inside some kind of newspaper or magazine that has nothing to do with financials, then your probability goes up a lot more. What my take is that this is it. The next Fed meeting, let's take a look at this. So we have, come on, come to daddy here, one second, calendar. Okay, so November 1st. November 4th, 1400 hours. And we're still at 525. Yeah, we're at 525 to 550. They're not going up. I just don't see them going up, man. Now, the question is how long are they going to stay there? But the market itself, just as I said last week, the market itself took us off zero rates. The market itself are going to take us off that 4.8. Always remember, folks, the back of Chloe Hot Out, the bull could run you over and thank God. There's always another trade. Health, happiness, and prosperity. Have a great night, folks. Have a safe night. Come back and visit Tommy tomorrow morning. Kick us off 9 a.m. Well, look at him, folks.


Hello friends Welcome again to this new session on Triangles now in the last session we saw a very important theorem and we also saw its proof and scored basic proportionality theorem Now here what we are going to do is we are going to study some of the corollaries to basic proportionality theorem So corollaries are nothing but something some results which are which can be directly seen from some established result So, you know, it's not new or a different theorem is the same Theorem but with different manifestations. So or the same theorem leads to similar type of results. So those are corollaries. So let us now You know, see what our corollaries corollaries can we see here now? Let's recap BPT first that is basic proportionality theorem. So by Basic proportionality theorem, which is also called as Thales theorem. We learned that right basic proportionality basic proportionality so Pardon my spelling proportion proportionality right So basic proportionality theorem or Our other name was Thales theorem Thales Theorem now, what does this theorem say? It says that in a triangle if DE one line intersects or Cuts two sides of the triangle such that D is parallel to BC It's parallel to one of the sides Then we know that AD upon DB is equal to AE upon EC Correct. This is our Thales theorem. Now, let's see some corollaries to it. So corollary one So if I add one to both sides to the Equation add one by EC plus one is Equal to if you see what will it be? It will be AD take LCM and do the basic mathematics divided by DB is equal to AE plus EC divided by EC Now if you see what is AD plus DB guys AD plus DB is simply AB, isn't it? So hence we can write AB Upon DB is equal to AE Sorry AC AE plus FC AE plus EC on the right hand side is nothing but AC AC upon EC, isn't it? So hence this is the first corollary So first corollary is or the first result of BPT was that this Upon this was equal to this upon this, isn't it? Now the first corollary is full thing divided by this part is Equal to again on the other side full thing divided by this part. Now if you see this this has resulted from a rule in proportions called component dough Component dough. So from there also we could have said it directly component dough is nothing but if A by B is equal to C by D Let us say there is a there are two ratios which are equal and come rule of component This is A plus B upon B is Equal to C plus D upon D for example 1 by 2 is equal to 3 by 6, isn't it? So according to the rule of component dough, you will get 1 plus 2 by 2 is equal to 3 plus 6 by 6 Which is clearly if you see this is 3 upon 2 is equal to 9 upon 6 both are equal to 3 by 2, isn't it? So this is called component dough rule. So from component dough rule We had one ratio and we converted this ratio into This right. So this is also Valid or you know by BPT we can say this also can be directly said isn't it now Corollary 2 would be nothing but You invert this ratio the final ratio what you've got you invert it inverted means take the receivable. So hence, you know DB upon AB will be equal to EC upon AC, isn't it? This is this rule is called invert and dough Invert and dough means what if 2 by 3? So I'm writing the example of invert into here 2 by 3 is equal to let's say 4 upon 6 Then if you invert or take the receivable, then also it will be same Okay, so this is another corollary another corollary could be nothing but If you see Another corollary could be let us say, you know, let's start from The first one itself. So let us say I start from here. So AB by DB Okay, AB by DB is equal to AC by EC, isn't it? Now, what can I say about DB? I can say AB upon DB if you see what is DB here DB here is nothing but full minus AD, right? AB minus AD so I can write AB as a DB as AB minus AD AD just check once again What is we're talking about? We're talking about DB.  Now next AC upon EC. Now, what is EC? Let's see what is EC EC again is nothing but AC minus AE AC minus AE, so let us write AC minus AE right and then Use the invert into again. So you will get what you take the receipt portal By AB. In fact, you could have started from second corollary directly, but never mind. So this is AC minus AE by AC Right, this can be further written as AB upon AB. Now I'm splitting the fraction minus AD upon AB is equal to AC by AC minus AE by AC Now if you see what is AB by AD, it is nothing but one minus AD by AB is equal to one minus AE by AC So if you simplify this this one and this one will go this minus sign and this minus sign will also go So hence it becomes AD by AB is equal to AE by EC. This is another corollary. So what all corollaries did we learn? So I will just summarize here first by BPT you had got AD by DB is equal to AE by EC, is it it? This was the basic one and the first corollary to it was nothing but AB by DB is equal to AE by EC By adding one you had got that. See we had got this one Right, AB by DB is equal to AC by EC here Right, now we this was from component, isn't it? The rule of Component related to proportions. Now we did invert endo and we got DB by AB is equal to EC by AC and this is called invert endo invert Endo right and third one with some mathematical manipulation we got What do we got as a third one? AD by AB So I'll write here AD AD by AB is equal to AE by AC Right, and then you can you can actually derive many more. Let's say now I will use something called alter nendo. What is that? Alter nendo, and what is alter nendo? Alter nendo says that if 1 by 2 is equal to 3 by 6 then 1 by 3 is equal to 2 by 6 So if you see I just interchange these places these numbers right so hence Using alter nendo in all we can actually have many more corollary. So if you see AD by AE if I take the first one and Apply alter nendo that means you exchange these values So what will you get? AD by AE will be equal to DB by EC then here in corollary 1 if you Apply alter nendo, you will get AB by AC is equal to DB by DB by EC Right? No, likewise you can all all other or you know If you apply let us say on the second corollary you will get DB by EC is equal to AB by AC which is same as the fifth one and then Yeah, and and if you apply the same thing on the third one you'll get AD upon AE is equal to AB Upon AC Another way to look at it. So what did I do? I just applied alter nendo on this and I got this Right, and then there are multiple others. What others like you know You can do cross-multiply on on the first one here are the basic BP T and what will you get? You will get a D into EC Is equal to AE into DB? Isn't it just cross multiplication? Similarly for all others you can get a Corresponding corollary. So for this you will get AB into EC Is equal to DB Into AC. Okay. Similarly here. What will you get? You'll get DB into AC is equal to AB into EC which is same as the previous one So I'm not going it going through this. So if let's say you do this this will be AD into AC AB into AC is equal to AB into AE and likewise you can you can have so many corollaries, isn't it? Why am I Going through these many Corollaries is simple that while problem-solving there could be cases where they're asking you to prove something of this sort Yeah, so whenever you see something of this sort, you must know that This is this must be or this might be a case of application of basic proportionality theorem, right? So you can see so many corollaries could be drawn using just one Okay, so please keep these in mind and whenever such problems are there Where you are encountering such kind of expressions to be proved then? You can try basic proportionality theorem over there


Ten emails mr.  Have you ever had iced juicy content? Yeah, it's just as good. Yeah, we're a skit a skit This one's called flat lime soda, but it's a comedy sketch with Kenny Sebastian. Oh, right, and Connagill Don't we just saw one of those and the bang bus? Yes, they just get together. Awesome So this is a comedic skit. They did together on Kenny Sebastian's channel great about flat lime soda Yeah, so it's a little comedy sketch like you would do it in a black box theater. Sure, right?  Yes, it is flat lime soda Yes You're out of fresh. Yes, come on Monday 9 a.m. We'll give you Hahaha You're not understanding me you have line. Yes, you're soda. Yes, you can mix that. Yes, that's for a sense of good Which is not flat Sorry for the inconvenience. Yeah You're going through trauma He's just gonna put it around the other side and then set it back down He's just gonna set it right back down What This is the same thing. No, sir. Hey, you just put it behind your back and put it back on the table and said new drink So that's crazy Why would I do that? I don't know why not doing it. It's weird. There are still no bubbles in this. So they left, sir They left. Yes, the bubbles left. Yes, where did they go? It's a native place So hard. I just want a fresh lime soda. Good choice This is really good This is really Manager he's gonna be the man Switches vest or something. This is very Carol Burnett.  Yes. No, you're the same guy Who just told her and said hello, I'm the manager. So that's crazy Okay, you're the manager. Yes, okay manager. What's your name? I Okay, come manager. I have a problem with my drink. What is this if it brings what drink lime drinks I asked for fresh lime soda. Good You just give me soda, that's flat this flat How can you the concept of fresh yes, I'm Monday at 9 I can speak to who is not you Your friends family Next-of-kin siblings Robin Utdapa Howdy's nice Trishul anybody who works here and get the CEO The CEO the chief executive officer of this restaurant Okay, Trishul get the CEO. Here we go. I think better not be you If you I'm the CEO This will be all right Take a deep breath Trishul Don't say you're the CEO Sir, I'm not the CEO I'm the general manager, sir The waiter and the manager said there's a problem. You're the general manager Yes, why is it so hard to just get a fresh lime soda in this restaurant? You're not a fresh sir. You're very angry sir. You're like a different person only Person No, sir, that's crazy, sir. It is crazy. This whole place is crazy What what who are you now and the customer? Trishul customer We've met before I'm leaving Just like the bubbles It's a different part of Kenny's restaurant. We hadn't seen yet. He can create this unique character Yeah, and commit to it and it's hilarious That was up there with SNL Carol Burnett as far as the the actual Doing of it and the writing. Yeah, the writing was great. Yeah, it's almost like who's on first was on second Yeah, just similar that kind of top notch sketch comedy stuff You'd see at the groundlings here in LA and is this just part of like something he did first set Like did he just like after he has multiple aspects of his set where some of its sketch comedy some of its Which is great. Yeah, I love sketch comedy. Yeah comedy that would be that is a hundred percent Tim Conway would have been the waiter Harvey Corman would have been the customer if you haven't ever seen the Carol Burnett show You should just go watch them. They're on Netflix right Amazon Prime You should watch some old sketch comedy from the great Carol Burnett and that team of legendary comedians This was this was on that caliber. Yeah, it was so funny really fun Both of them would obviously good kind of know good choice Just great. Yeah, the entire day and I'm guessing Kenny Sebastian wrote the sketch. That's my guess He's a phenomenal, right? I mean everything every stand-up. We've ever seen from him in every because he has The regular stand-up and then he has like try time, right, which is completely different style of He's a very versatile comedian very versatile comedian, which is great And yeah, that was that was and they both did a great job Oftentimes in sketch comedy the best of the best will break and not the one of them broke You could see it. Sometimes I think kind of wanted to break a few times. I think a couple was close Yeah, it was close. He didn't But yeah, they both did really well. I'd love to see more Obviously stand up but sketches as well from great stuff from Kenny or anybody I don't know if anybody else does this Because that that looked like just Like old-school SNL. Yeah, almost. Yep Because now and they've a lot like old-school SNL was very bare bones at time. Yeah, very very bare bones But that's still the same spirit is there at SNL right now. Yeah. Yeah Good stuff. That was funny. I enjoyed that Anything else You


I'm Luke Bacon from the Urban Australia Foundation. I'm really looking forward to meeting people from all around the world doing small city tech projects and how they're doing research. I'm Sam from a UK organisation called Medical Financial. I tend to focus on what's happening in the UK and it's really useful to see all the things that are happening all around the world and where can we import ideas and strategies and just talk to people who live in very different places. I'm Nigeria Sambuli. I have research in Nairobi. One of my colleagues happens to work with my society and so she invited me to look into the conference and some written abstract paper and it turned out that it was actually really meaningful to bring a context from a different perspective and you know the region now being a staffer that we wanted to focus and so one thing led to another and so playing right or later here I am. It was great hearing that presentation about Kenya and particularly the importance of community radio there because community radio is very big in Australia and I'm very interested in that and so we can work together. Digital is just one part of the challenge. Understanding what the opportunities are from the citizens perspective lets you see how digital fits into the great context. Forming networks of support is always a big thing for me and so I think there's a great bunch of people here and the great community amongst practitioners that's coming from different places. It's a really really interesting mix of people and organisations doing lots of different work in different places and people have solved the problems that we find really hard it's like oh we can do that and that's you know really really useful and inspiring and it makes events like this which are very very incredibly valuable.


Good afternoon, everyone. I'm Dan Versetti, Executive Director of the Environmental and Energy Study Institute. Welcome back to part two of our online briefing mini-series about rural communities, climate, and COVID-19 recovery. Today we will learn about how the coronavirus outbreak has affected the bioeconomy and what that means for the economic and environmental benefits we derive from biofuels and other products. If you weren't able to join us yesterday, we heard an update from three panelists about on-bill financing programs for home energy efficiency improvements in South Carolina. Tomorrow we will consider the dual threat of natural disasters during a time of a major public health crisis, the COVID-19 outbreak. If you need to catch up or register for tomorrow, you can visit www.esa.org. There you'll find an archived webcast and presentation materials. And while you're there, please take a moment to sign up for our Climate Change Solutions newsletter, which is a great way to stay informed about our briefing and other educational and informative resources. Yesterday, in my introduction, I mentioned that EESI is long-standing commitment to better understanding the impacts of climate change on rural areas. And those impacts are different than those affecting urban areas. At EESI, we like to focus on solutions. And again, approaches to climate change mitigation and adaptation are different depending on the geography and demographics of where you are. Today we will discuss the potential of biofuels. Biofuels are sourced from rural areas, but their potential benefits extend to cities and towns that's a well-rounded climate solution. As the U.S. transportation sector undergoes a longer-term zero-carbon transition, biofuels can be used to reduce emissions while supporting rural economies and contributing to improved air and water quality throughout the country. It sounds like a cliche, but biofuels represent a win-win-win climate change solution. The first win is economic. Biofuels provide economic development opportunities in low-population areas where feedstocks are grown, harvested, and processed, all of which compares favorably to costly and unsustainable fossil fuel extraction. The second win is environmental. Life-cycle carbon emissions from biofuels are about 80 percent lower than those from fossil fuels. We'll need liquid fuels for ground transport for some time, and we'll need liquid fuels for air travel for some time longer. Increased use of biofuels would reduce emissions from the transportation sector, which is currently the largest slice of the greenhouse gas pollution pie. The third is especially relevant in present circumstances, public health. COVID-19 takes aim at our lungs, which are already exposed to harmful particulate pollutants and aromatics, which are nasty, carcinogenic gasoline additives. If we increased the use of biofuels in our cars and trucks, we could do without gasoline and aromatics, and there would be healthier air for everyone to breathe. At a time when we should be doing everything possible to improve the health of the public, as you listen to our panelists today, I encourage you to consider how we want to recover to change our old, unhelpful ways of doing things for the better. Why go back to heavily subsidized fossil fuel consumption when we have a better alternative choice? As a win-win-win climate solution, biofuels can and should be part of that new way of doing things. One last bit of logistics before we turn to our panelists. Because we are online today, I cannot call on you if you have a question. So please follow EESI on Twitter at EESI online and send in your questions that way. You can also send an email to EESI at EESI.org. We will draw from your questions submissions after we hear from our panelists during our Q&A session. And let me welcome our first panelist, Patty Judge. Patty served two terms in the Iowa Senate. She also served as Iowa's Secretary of Agriculture, where she worked tirelessly to promote renewable fuels, ethanol, and biodiesel in particular. Under her leadership, renewable energy grew to become an integral part of Iowa's economy. She continued to work for the people of Iowa as a Lieutenant Governor from 2006 through 2010. And in 2017, she founded Focus on Rule America, a nonprofit organization dedicated to examining and addressing the problems of the most rural parts of the country. Patty, welcome. Thank you so much for joining us today. I'm looking forward to your presentation. Well, thank you so much for inviting me to be with you today. It's a real honor. I will start by saying, as you just heard, I'm now working with a nonprofit group that is called Focus on Rule America. We were founded after the 2016 elections when we were very much aware of some significant changes in voting and thinking in the rural parts of not just Iowa, but across the Midwest, Rust Belt. We wanted to take a look at what was driving voting decisions in rural America and what was going on. Why are the population continuing to decline? What issues do rural voters find important? We have done a considerable amount of research and polling on issues in rural America, trying to look at trends and policy drivers. We've worked with candidates and policymakers. Recently, we were very much involved in the Iowa caucuses, the many presidential campaigns that came to the state. We helped them draft rural plans. Actually, we helped draft plans for 15 different candidates, including Vice President. It was easy for us through our research to identify the top issues in rural Iowa and rural America. And the first, of course, is a good job. Beyond having that good job, rural people are concerned about having available and affordable health care, and they're concerned that their education system in rural communities is robust, preparing young people for the future. But again, I want to say that the first and the beginning and the end is, of course, a good job. Slide three, Katie. We know that rural communities feed and fuel our world. We also know that it is critically important to add value to agricultural products. Agriculture has changed over the years. Certainly changed in even in my lifetime of living and working on an Iowa farm. We are a commodity driven industry at this point in time and in order to add value to that commodity crop, we really need to be thinking outside the box. When we do that, we not only put additional dollars in the pocket of farmers, but we also create good jobs in rural communities. And the ethanol plants, the biofuel industry has really been good for rural America. It is providing good jobs and money to spend on on Main Street. And it seems like we've been talking about this and and trying to grow this industry for many, many years, but we do know that today, it is an important part of many, many rural communities. Besides the opportunity to provide for us some cleaner fuel. We have really struggled over the last few years. You know, farm income is down. And that's not a good thing. One of the issues that makes it very difficult to attract and retain good jobs and industries in rural America is the lack of high speed internet hookup. For many of you, I'm sure it would seems impossible to think that that high speed is not available in many places, but but it isn't. And we've talked for years about how to do that, but we never seem to be able to get that that to happen. Unfortunately, crumbling housing stock, crumbling highways and bridges, hospital closures, school consolidation, all of those. Those things add to the economic pain that rural America is feeling right now. Next slide please. This graph shows you that the net farm income is down almost by half compared to what it was in 2013. And that is just incredibly difficult for rural communities when farm income drops of the farm. Industry does not have money to spend on Main Street and and that is that is the bread and butter for rural communities. So we were really kind of on the ropes before the COVID-19 pandemic hit. We really view this here in the heartland as a triple whammy. We had the trade wars, which, you know, are really unfortunate and, in my opinion, unnecessary that it became agriculture took a real hit because of that. We followed that up with some devastating floods that further crippled agriculture. And the third thing that happened even before the pandemic is EPA's decision to grant small refinery waivers from mandated ethanol blending. So that was about all of the sucker punches that we could stand. And then we followed that up with the COVID-19 pandemic. Ethanol really adds to the economy in 2018. We're looking over 300,000 direct and indirect jobs. We're looking at $45 billion to GDP and 24 billion household incomes. That's a lot of money. And so when that is not holding true, it creates serious problems here in the heartland. Another issue that has been extremely hard on us is the failure to implement RFS as it was written. If we had had the renewable fuel standard standing strong, we would have been in a much more comfortable place today. But as I said, we've known the last few years that the ethanol industry has been shaky and then COVID-19 came along and really destroyed the safety net. I want to say just a word about small refinery waivers because I think it's something that is a little difficult if you don't deal with it on a regular basis. These refinery waivers were designed to help small refineries to allow them to be exempted from mandated fuel blending requirements. And we all understand that. But what has happened over the years is that big oil industries like Chevron Mobile have used these waivers, been branded waivers. And that has really hurt the ethanol industry when the waiver issue was not started for that reason. In fact, in the last round of waivers that were granted, there were 31 waivers that accounted for over a billion dollars in blending exemption. Since 2016, more than 4 billion gallons of biofuel have been diverted from the market. That was even before, that was of course before the COVID-19 issue. Now the loss of market lessened fuel demand from the pandemic, which has been very severe. That has resulted in about 30 plants across the country that have been idled or closed. In addition, another 130 have reduced their production. So we are in a very serious situation with the ethanol industry today. Next slide. Rural Americans know what ethanol does for our communities. Our polling data tells us that they support leaders that invest in it. We need to keep that industry strong in order to keep rural communities strong. COVID-19 is having a devastating impact on the rural economy. Food prices are soaring even here in the bread basket. Especially meat prices, how farmers are waiting for some help. I just want to let all of you know that the price jump that you are seeing in meat in the grocery store across this country is in no way reflected in the live markets and what the farmers are receiving. Hacking plants of course have been a focal point, at least in our state in the Midwest. As places, as industries that have had large numbers of employees that have become ill and that has even resulted in the closing of a plant for a period of time. There are lots of problems in those plants as far as keeping workers safe. And we have to wonder if the best practices are being used to keep people safe and keep the production line going. We know that value-added agriculture is critical to a strong rural economy. We cannot survive here if we don't have some way to add dollars to our raw commodities. And we also, in the ethanol industry, need to be part of federal recovery efforts, which has been a problem so far. I just want to also say, though, that the biggest problem for farmers is always uncertainty. We need clear and certain directions. We have shown through the years that we are capable of adjusting, of changing, of finding solutions. But the uncertainty that surrounds us today is very difficult to deal with. We do need, in the fuel industry, we do need assistance from the CARES Act. We need money to flow into rural communities, rural businesses as quickly as possible. I really fear that some of those businesses that have been closed down now since in March will not find a way to open their doors again. I just wanted to mention, too, about rural hospitals because since 2005, 166 rural hospitals across the country have closed. And we know that a rural community without health care availability is one that is struggling and doomed to fail. Jobs leave, communities shrink when there is no health care available. So I just want to summarize a little bit. Health care facilities add value to farm income and products. They put revenue into good jobs and benefits for workers in rural America. Policies the administration can and should use today to help, first of all, implement the renewable fuel standard as it's written and intended. Second, set the renewable fuel volume obligations as written and attended and in the use of the unjust small refinery waivers. Ethanol facilities add value. They put good jobs and benefits for workers in rural America. They get very hard over the years. Again, particularly due to small refinery waivers. Every inch of value added agriculture economy puts money into small towns. They are still agriculture is the backbone of small towns across our country. And ethanol facilities are a shining example of what we can do in rural America by adding value to our agricultural products. And without them, without them, I see that our small towns will continue to to contract and business asleep. Thank you very much and I'll stand by for question. Thank you so much Patty for your presentation and speaking of questions. We will begin Q&A after our next panelist. Two quick reminders if you missed any of Patty's presentation, just as a reminder that there will be an archived webcast online www.esa.org. Also the presentation materials that Patty used will be made available as well. It'll take us a couple days, but check back and you'll also see a written summary that includes the Q&A and things like that. So if you have any questions, you can email us EESI at ESI.org or you can follow us on Twitter at ESI online. Our second panelist is Stefan Unash. Stefan is Managing Director of Lifecycle Associates, a consulting firm specializing in the analysis of fuel and clean energy technologies. Over the past 30 years, Stefan has supported state, federal and international efforts to examine the greenhouse gas impacts of conventional and alternative fuels, including California zero emission vehicle program and low carbon fuel standard. He has published over 80 studies for government agencies, as well as peer reviewed papers on alternative fuels and life cycle analysis. Welcome. Thanks so much for joining us today. Well, thank you. And I would like to give a presentation on the opportunities for biofuels and their effects on air quality and greenhouse gas emissions. So first I will talk a little bit about what biofuels benefits are and then their role in air quality and greenhouse gas emissions and then how that might fit in some policies for rural development. First of all, we're all familiar with the fuel volumes for the RFS. The projected volumes have not panned out and we're not producing nearly the levels of cellulosic biofuels and what we primarily have is corn ethanol and oil based biodiesel and renewable diesel. There's also been a recent growth in biogas derived from dairies and landfills. Cellulosic fuels have really not panned out as projected and technically electricity and hydrogen could be generating D3 RINs under the RFS. And there's actually petitions sitting at EPA that are waiting to be acted on. So we actually have an opportunity to meet the RFS with many fuels, but let's see what their role is in air quality. So there's several factors having to do with alternative fuels that affect their air quality impacts. One is how clean they burn, but the other thing that people don't often think about is what do they avoid? So ethanol has a high octane number. Yes, that makes the vehicle operate more efficiently if it has a knock sensor, but also means that the oil refinery doesn't need to produce as much high octane product, lower intensity reformers, lower emissions from oil refining. The heat of vaporization, low sulfur, and distillation properties of ethanol also help with its hydrocarbon emissions. Renewable diesel has a very high octane number, 80 compared to 40. That means it runs well in a diesel engine. And again, the oil refinery doesn't need to work as hard to meet diesel specifications, to meet stringent California requirements. And this fuel also has virtually essentially no aromatics and zero sulfur. Similarly, biodiesel is along those same lines and biogas. Biogas is used by book and claim to make CNG. But using biogas actually helps landfills avoid flaring or helps them not have to use an internal combustion engine, which would have high NOX emissions. It avoids dairies and lagoons having methane emissions. And then finally, of course, electricity and hydrogen, which are all potentially derived from biogas or other renewables, have zero emissions in the local area. We did a study that looked at the toxic air contaminant effects of ethanol. And it's a very complicated matter because it depends not only on the properties of the ethanol, but the components that are blended into gasoline. And this chart here compares 5.7% ethanol with higher level ethanol blends. And it shows the weighted toxics. So basically, ethanol is displacing benzene and olefins, which are precursors of 1,3-butadiene. And these here are weighted by their cancer-causing potential. So basically, ethanol helps reduce cancer-causing components. And it's a complicated subject because it really depends on how you blend the gasoline, and ethanol helps you make cleaner gasoline. Here's an interesting chart. Perhaps it demonstrates that correlation is not causation, but it does show that over the past several decades, with the introduction of reformulated gasoline, phase 2 gasoline, and low sulfur, as well as ethanol, ozone levels have been declining as ethanol levels have increased in our gasoline to 10%, the 10% that we have today, and we have the potential to go to 15%. Unfortunately, we're losing our ability to operate flexible-fueled vehicles on ethanol because the incentive structure has changed for those vehicles. So a little bit about greenhouse gas emissions. As we're probably aware, you need to look at greenhouse gas emissions on a well-to-wheel or farm-to-wheel basis. Because if you look at ethanol, it has the same carbon dioxide emissions per mild-riven as does gasoline, give or take small changes in efficiency. However, the ethanol was recently removed from the air, which is the biogenic uptake. So you need to count all of these on a life-cycle basis. Similarly, for electric vehicles, those cars produce zero emissions as they're driving, so certainly you need to count them on a life-cycle basis. But first, let's look at petroleum. Petroleum includes the emissions from the car, the bottom blue bars, as well as all of the emissions in a life-cycle. There's the crude oil production, which depends on different production types. Here we have thermal oil recovery, oil produced from offshore wells in Nigeria, which flare a lot of oil, heavy oil which requires thermal energy, and refining. And believe it or not, we even get crude oil from regions in the world where we have to expend our money to fly airplanes to fly over the Middle East to protect our petroleum resources. And that adds about 4% to the greenhouse gas emissions from gasoline produced from such conflict zones. Now, when you look at ethanol, ethanol takes carbon dioxide recently removed from the air. We call that short-cycle carbon and turns it into corn, which produces animal feed, corn oil, ethanol. And there's also a component which analysts call indirect land use conversion, so you could take into account the opportunity cost of the land to grow something else. There's a lot of factors that weigh into the life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of ethanol. And this shows, this chart here shows how the thinking has evolved over the past 10 years. And these values are actually the basis for regulations that affect how ethanol producers generate revenue either under the renewable fuel standard or the California low-carbon fuel standard. So first, the green bars show a declining use of fertilizer over time. So this California Green 1.8B, this was about a 2009 model data. And now we have the most recent data in 2019 from Argonne National Lab. There's been a steady decline in the amount of nitrogen fertilizer that's used to grow corn. Also, there's been changes in how we conduct the life-cycle analysis, a better understanding of methane emissions from natural gas, a change in the electricity grid, a change in refinement and indirect land use conversion, and even better thinking on co-product credits. So today, the best thinking shows that about corn ethanol, just the ethanol alone, reduces greenhouse gas emissions by about 50% compared to petroleum gasoline. So all of these considerations on greenhouse gas emissions have led to low-carbon fuel programs. You know, why even have a low-carbon fuel program? Why don't a cap-and-trade program solve everything? Well, the problem is, transportation is a significant portion of our greenhouse gas emissions. And having a cap-and-trade program with the prices that are in today's cap-and-trade program would really not do that much to incent someone from not driving to get a cup of coffee in a military vehicle. We drive big cars. Some people have good reasons for having big cars. And a cap-and-trade type pricing, which allows for forestry and things like that, is not going to cause advanced biofuels, fish or truck diesel, battery-electric vehicles to be built. So that's why we have a low-carbon fuel program in California and in other states. And it's being considered that way. And in such a program, it's a market-based program with a declining standard. So that gray line shows the declining standard in California. It's headed to a 20% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. And the obligated parties or the fuel producers need to either reduce their emissions, which is challenging because 70% of the emissions are in the gasoline itself, or they need to buy alternative fuels, and the lowest carbon options can participate. This is one advantage over the RFS, which has predetermined buckets. And corn ethanol can never become better than a D6 biofuel under the RFS. So mechanisms like the low-carbon fuel standard are attractive. However, they sort of leave out rural America. There's a lot of benefits that could be had at the farm level. No-till farming, low-nitrogen release, farming practices can improve the greenhouse gas emissions from corn ethanol. But currently, these aren't incorporated into any fuel programs. Also, energy crops. Of course, we do utilize manure to make CNG, converting crops and forests to advanced biofuels or materials. These are all options. And we could even consider land restoration. Farmers have land, and there's land around the margins, which could be used to absorb runoff. Now, farmers can't take this land and simply set it aside. They need to make a living. But with the value of carbon emissions, why not look at how some of this income could be helped to reduce emissions at the farm level? And here, this chart shows basically the complexity of certification programs and the value of the greenhouse gas emissions. So the highest value you can achieve is to get a grant from the government on a really small scale. That's not really a large volume choice. But the low-carbon fuel standard is paying $200 per ton of CO2 reductions. Cap and trade programs are one-tenth of that. And voluntary programs are getting about $5 a ton. There must be some way to harmonize farm-level activities so that activities such as habitat restoration or no-till farming that stores carbon in the soil could be introduced as a benefit and allow some of the revenue to flow to the farms. Perhaps not at the $200 per ton level, but certainly there's some zone in here that provides opportunities that can help store carbon as well as help the farmer. So we've learned a lot of lessons from these low-carbon fuel programs. One of them is having equity in greenhouse gas reductions is important. Under the low-carbon fuel standard, fuel producers get credits for having lower emissions. So if you take your ethanol plant and install an anaerobic digester, you get paid much more money under the LCFS than you would under the RFS, which simply would treat the ethanol as a D6 RIN. So there's flexibility in adopting new technologies. Also, I work for a lot of companies that are examining investment options. Investors are willing to look at the future revenue from the LCFS, whereas there's a lot of uncertainty with the RFS. So this mechanism, having a stable mechanism where a policy persists is very important. And this has enabled the adoption of new technology. Biogas from dairies has certainly grown. Almost all of the tallow and used cooking oil is headed towards renewable diesel as well as corn oil. And there's been significant investments in cellulosic ethanol as well as fish or trout jet fuels and certainly electrification. Just look at Tesla's stock price. So what can we do in the future? There's a couple of things. We could support E15. We could bring back the flexible fuel vehicle. The fewer and fewer of these are being built and bring it back as a high octane plug-in hybrid electric vehicle. So that way you can benefit from having an electrified vehicle and you can bring the electric technology into larger vehicles. So in rural areas, you need pickup trucks. You need larger vehicles. And if it were a plug-in hybrid, you could enable still getting most of your miles on electricity with a smaller battery. Add RINs for hydrogen electricity, very easy. Many developers are working on biomass to jet. We know they're going to succeed. Enable innovations. One of my favorites is manure by wire. Allow ethanol plants to get better credits by enabling biogas to come in with electricity credits, for example, and consider some of these farm level benefits such as low emission farming and habitat restoration. There's certainly a lot to do at the farm level that can tie in with low carbon programs and I look forward to an interesting future. Great. Thanks so much for a great presentation. You had a lot of charts in your presentation. Thank you for those. Lots of good stuff. If anyone has a need to sort of go into greater depth or review those slides, just as a reminder, in addition to an archived webcast, the slides and materials will be made available online. And Steph, and hopefully included as contact information at the end of this presentation too. We are now going to transition to Q&A and we have lots of time for that. If you have questions out there in the audience, you can follow us on Twitter and ask us questions that way. You can also send us an email, EESI at EESI.org, and some of you are doing that. But I am going to introduce my colleague Amber Todorov. You might remember Amber. She was my co-moderator for our climate adaptation data briefing series back a couple months, somehow a couple months ago. So Amber, welcome. Thanks for all your help with today's briefing and I'll let you kick it off with Q&A. Thanks a lot, Dan. And thanks to both of our presenters today. These are really interesting discussions and I definitely learned a lot. So this question's for Stefan, but either of you could answer, Patty, you probably have some insight too. What are the misconceptions held by the public that you feel are most troubling and want to get corrected in terms of ethanol and bile pools? Well, one is that it has no criteria pollutant benefits. It's much more complicated than that. The effect of octane and the ability to make low carbon, low emission gasoline are very integrated. And then the other conception is just that corn ethanol is bad. If you look at corn ethanol compared to other biofuels, there's a range of carbon intensity, greenhouse gas emission values. And if you want manure by wire, you could knock the carbon intensity of corn ethanol down by 20% simply if you allowed corn ethanol plants to invest in dairy digesters or manure digesters that make electric power that otherwise would never happen unless they had that investment. So there's lots of options and corn ethanol is reducing greenhouse gas emissions just like other biofuels. I might add in here something Amber. One of the arguments that we heard over and over during the caucus season when we had over 21 Democratic candidates for president plus full staffs and we were trying to talk about ethanol, we're trying to talk about farming, we're talking about rural opportunity. And many times I still heard the food versus fuel argument that somehow we were taking food away from American citizens because we were turning it into fuel instead. And we would have to stop in and have people understand that first of all, the crop is what we call number two yellow corn. It is not food, human food, it's livestock feed. And the great thing about ethanol production is that through the process of creating the ethanol, they extract the sugar and turn that into ethanol, but it leaves a high quality livestock feed. And so there really is not a great deal of waste and that food is used by livestock producers all over actually all over the world anymore as a high quality food. On that note, an acre of land making corn for ethanol makes as much animal feed as an acre of soybeans. Cool. That's really good to know. Thank you very much. So this one's for Patty. In one of your slides you said how in the spring of 2019 biofuel production buffered impact of trade disputes. Could you elaborate more on that? I'm sorry, I mean I say that again Amber. On one of your slides you said last year's trade disputes are biofuel production helped buffer the impact of trade disputes. Could you elaborate more on that? Well of course the trade disputes were over moving corn and soybeans both into international markets and we rely a great deal in the corn industry in moving that product internationally. And when we had embargoes placed on us, trade tariffs became very difficult and we got caught up in that with biofuels and it was really unfortunate. But they did suffer because of our inability to move ethanol across into our into normal markets. Thanks. I am going to give in to the questions that are coming in from our audience and thank you to those who are sending us questions. We're getting lots of questions today. A lot of people find this very interesting. The first one I think is for both of you, how would you weigh the constraints, the technological or technical versus policy constraints that are preventing biofuels from being more widespread, from being a more mainstream vehicle fuel? How would you balance those? Is it mostly a technical or technological or is it mostly a policy constraint that's preventing more widespread use? Well the policy opportunities are fantastic. So for example in the case of D3 RINs for biogas, the incentive has been very generous and perhaps it's a little bit too generous considering that the technology was intended to make cellulosic biofuels. So the problem is that the federal government hasn't stuck with it. There is an opportunity to change the RVO and as you make the requirement lower, the incentive effectively is not as strong. So the incentives work. I talk to clients every day who have me analyze what are the changes they can make to a corn ethanol plant to get a lower carbon intensity score and they are acting on these incentives and they do work, but they need to be persistent, persistent enough that investors will believe they'll be around for 10 years. And I might just add, I might add on to that. I totally agree with with Stefan's comments, but I think one of the things that we off times forget is that how new this industry is. A few years ago, 30, 40 years ago it did not exist. And so it has gone through growing pains like any industry, startup industry, some things work, some things haven't worked. It takes some diligence. It takes, as Stefan said, sticking with a program. And one of the programs that is taking a while to get to a commercial point is cellulosic ethanol. And we all still have great hopes that that's going to happen. I think it will. But again, we need the research, we need the incentives and we need time. Before I send it back to Amber, just a quick follow up. Do you think the public health benefits, the air quality, water quality benefits that are becoming more on people's minds during the coronavirus outbreak? Do you think those public health imperatives will help sort of shift that dynamic and maybe encourage greater use of biofuels? Well, I would like to think so. Another one of the arguments that we heard last winter, of course, was that we have a role to play in air pollution. And I think some of the data that was being used is old and that we really are on the right track to cut emissions. And we certainly have a role in the future doing that. I'd be interested in Stefan's thoughts on that. Yeah, I think the air quality effects are largely a co-benefit. Certainly producing renewable diesel with a high C10 and zero sulfur makes it easier to sell, but these low carbon policies are monetizing the fuels based on their greenhouse gas emissions. You have regulations on refineries and fuels and they're not fuel. Everyone's able to participate on what's effectively a level playing field. However, where we really need help is with higher ethanol blends. There shouldn't be obstacles to going to E15. And we really should consider plug-in hybrid E85 vehicles. This is a problem because the folks who would like a perfect solution are the enemy of the good. I don't know if we're going to be able to have pickup trucks and larger vehicles with a 400 mile range that have to haul horse trailers, be dedicated battery vehicles. And there are a lot of them in this country and why not have them run on renewable fuel and get down to over 80% greenhouse gas reductions all of the time. Thanks. Amber, I'll turn it back over to you. Patty, this is for you. Given your experiences, are there things you think that state secretaries of agriculture could do to help the public and policymakers better understand the role of health, environmental and economic benefits of biofuels? Well, definitely, again, I want to say that this is a fledgling industry by industry standards. I was amazed when I was Secretary of Agriculture in the lack of good information that even Iowans who live next door to a corn field and or an ethanol plant seem to have. So we have a lot of work and using the elected offices of the Secretary of Agriculture and US congressmen, the Iowa legislators, all of us have sort of a built-in bully pulpit. We have an opportunity to tell that story and I think that we need to do that. I have seen a big change. I will tell you that when we started trying to promote ethanol, I went on the Rotary Circuit at noon and I would challenge the Rotarians to buy a tank of ethanol and drive the car and tell me what they thought. And they would come back at me with it was going to ruin, it would ruin the car if they put ethanol in the tank. And so I told them the story and the story I'll tell you very quickly is my father who's now passed but lived to a good old age of 95 believed that ethanol was a terrible thing and that you should not ever ever put that in your car because it would in fact make it make your car quit running, ruin the motor. So I would take his car when I was home, I would take his car uptown and fill it up with ethanol. And I'd never told him and he was happy, the car ran fine and I was happy too. So we've come a long way since those days, but again the are our opposition, which are to be very blunt is is big oil. They would like us to disappear and they are well funded. They are vocal and they and they try constantly so we really have to keep working at spreading a good message of renewable fuel of all kinds because it is about the future and it is about good jobs and it is about a clean environment. What do you think it is new, as you said, so what are there other countries that are kind of on the vanguard on this that we could take, you know, some case study of Well, I mean, we're not the only country in the world that is creating renewable fuels and certainly what's definite to address that, but we have real competition for the ethanol industry, particularly in Brazil and and other a few other places. But again, other countries are are promoting their fuel. They are trying to establish good trade policies that allow that fuel to move and and I hope they're not spending as much time as we are trying to back back our opponents that are funded by big oil. Steven. Yeah, I work a lot on helping export ethanol. I've been to, you know, Mexico and all over the world. I think there's lots of opportunities there, but it is, you know, it is, you know, maddening when we've had a, you know, issues with petroleum supply, we have all of the, you know, pollution issues from petroleum that we ought to be able to use our own, you know, our own indigenous resources and, you know, more importantly, we've had laws on the books for 10 years. You know, the purpose of the law is to allow the investor to take the risk. And if it's really just a bait and switch game, it's not a policy. It's simply someone gets to take credit for writing a law that did nothing. And that's not the purpose of laws. It's supposed to be able, you're supposed to be able to allow investors to make multi, you know, $100 million risks. And then they're supposed, and then they're the guys who their problem is supposed to be, does the technology work? Not as the government going to change the RV, you know, based on a whim. And I may have just dithered off the question. Thanks. I'm going to go back to our questions that are coming in. This one came in from Twitter and I always like to try to make a special note to ask questions that come in from Twitter. So thanks. And this is for, this is a grab bag. So whichever of you has the answer, I'm not sure who to direct it to. What policy options exist to ensure farmers receive at least partial value upfront on co2 sequestration activities when it takes a little while it takes a little bit of time to verify that co2 permanence.  However, if you if you ask the farmer, would you rather we give you 20 cents a bushel, or that we have an incentive that goes through the oil company that then goes to the ethanol plant that then trickles down to you. I'm sure they would prefer the former. So there's a potential source of revenue from low carbon programs, and it can fund activities that are beneficial. Some of these activities are already occurring.  So, you know, if we paid 20% of the farmers to who are already doing no till to do no till that's not going to have a big effect. So the policy has to be sorted out that it will result in some higher level of additionality. But there are mechanisms available. And also, you know, farmers will never be able to come up with the same level of evidence as an ethanol plant.  One of those, like you do a receipt for an ethanol plant, it's not that easy, but it's clear when farmers are employing practices that reduce nitrogen emissions. You know, some of these practices cost more to monitor. And, you know, perhaps, you know, take it as an initial step to pay for the monitoring and to pay for activities that have a clear incremental cost. But this can be sorted out. And there's 20 pedograms, which is millions and millions of tons of carbon that potentially could be stored in the soil over the next several decades. And we need to get to work on that. All right, so I have one last question. We hear about cities and municipalities adopting biofuel compatible buses or other vehicles for their fleets. Is there one city in particular that you think is doing a really great job at this or multiple cities. I really am not familiar with what but all the city what cities are doing. I know that there have been a lot a lot of tests done particularly with biofuel and buses across in cities across the country. I think most of those show that that there's real good possibility of reducing emissions by by using biofuel. I and again, I would I want to echo what what Stephen said about being able to use higher blends if moving from 10 to 15% or beyond is is really I think very will be very beneficial in our to the to the environment as we as we Americans resume our driving that that we enjoy so much and we've kind of put on hold for the last few months. In California, a lot of bus fleets have requirements to use renewable diesel. And that's a lot of fuel so I don't know exactly if they have the same access to do that for ethanol or frankly whether they even would. However, in the Midwest, I think an 85 F F V would make a dandy police car. And there's many opportunities. There's many opportunities for for, you know, local governments to use to use 85 to purchase the 85 vehicles and and there potentially could be cost savings because of the ability of the ethanol plant to sell locally. Well, thank you so much for that. And your answer reminded me of Patty's sort of switcheroo story reminded me of those old taster choice taster's choice commercials where we secretly replaced your gasoline with 85 maybe that should be something that we worked on. I'm local officials would probably frown upon that, but I, you know, still think there's a kernel there for marketing purposes. Patty step and thank you so much for joining us today and making your presentations. And we're even keeping you over the hour mark now we're at 301 but thank you so much for your presentations it really means a lot to everyone to DSI free to take time out of your day to join us and help educate policymakers in the public about biofuels rule and the coronavirus outbreak. So thank you very much. Before we conclude, let me thank Amber for joining me today. Thank all of ESI who had a hand in today. So I'm just going to go on and just look at the staff page at ESI.org and say oh everyone had something to do with today's briefing which is more or less the case. One last thing before we conclude. conclude while you're visiting EESI.org, looking at the staff page saying, oh, all of those people had so much to do with today's briefing, it would be really helpful if you would take a few moments to take our survey. We really pay a lot of attention to the responses that we get and it helps us improve our offerings also just to make sure that what we're doing is what we need to be doing and we really appreciate everyone's time that you spend filling out that survey. So thank you very much, apologies for going a minute or two past the hour, but this was just such a great presentation and Q&A, sometimes the temptation to go long is just too much. So thanks everyone for joining us, hope you have a great rest of your Wednesday and we'll see you tomorrow for the final installment of our mini-series looking at natural disasters in the public health crisis, thanks so much.