The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Morning Market Kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good Monday morning everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien, company alive from TFNN. Just after 9 a.m. Eastern time, we got about 24 minutes to go until the start of trading but you got markets picking up right where we left off last week, quite the acceleration overnight. It begins at about 3 a.m. Eastern time. When you have Europe opening, you're trading at 42.60 right then on the S&Ps and you trade down 45 points from the high to the low. Since then we've bounced about 20 points. When you put it on a Fimonacci basis, we're coming right up to that 50% mark. I'm gonna take the longer term off here. And so we touched 42.37 in this market. We're trading at 42.33. But boy, you back things up 10 days, right? From where we were less than a week ago. Yeah, 44.21, just like that folks. We're trading off 200 points, quite the accelerations, whether it was Wednesday, Thursday, and then Friday as well. You got two large legs to the downside. We finished at basically lows on Friday at four o'clock. You open the futures positive by five to 10 points last night and then boom. We raced to the downside 42.15. We got yields on the rise yet again as well. Seems like the trends are intact. We got a big week of earnings. 30% of the S&P, about three out of 10 S&P 500 companies reporting this week. Many of the tech companies reporting as well. We'll get into that later in the program. NASDAQ 100, we're negative by 48. You drive down to 14,520 overnight. We're trading at 14,615 right now. The Dow off about 150 points. We'll call it 33,112. We're gonna get a 32,000 handle. You almost got it last night, 33,026 was the number we got at about 6 a.m. Eastern time. And you get the Russell, negative by five. How about Bitcoin? How about it? Having a moment, man. Bitcoin up by $1,120. That's almost a 3.8% climb to the upside at 30,805. Crude backs off a bit from the highs we had on Friday, 89,85 was that spike high on Friday. We're trading at 87,38 right now. The gold contract makes it to 2009. Just remarkable action on that gold contract. We're trading at 1990. If you haven't checked out the gold report, folks, great day to do it. My dad comes up with new issues every Monday. And this is weekly issue 11,22 I think. Let me make sure. Absolutely remarkable how consistent. Yeah, weekly issue 11,22 on the gold report. That's 21.57 straight years, 21.57 straight years. My dad's been writing that gold report. We got gold rocking, man. Great time to check it out. You can check out the gold report at the front page of TFNN. You talk about an acceleration, man. Almost $200 from where we were on October 6th at 18,20, about your trade up to 2009 on Friday. We're backing off a bid on gold off about $3 right now. Back to the short-term timeframe. And of course, we jumped in nodes and bonds. You drive down to a low of price of 105.10 on your 10 year. Jumping around one second for me. And there's the headline there. Ten year treasure yield tops 5% for the first time since 2007, keeping traders wary. Yeah, I would say so. Cross 5% for the first time in 16 years. Man, it was so close last week. I saw on the CNBC chart, they had it at five. Guess it didn't quite get there. Nonetheless, yields rose as much as 11 basis points. What are we trading at right now? I think we've backed off that number just a bit. Have we? Yeah, we're trading at 4.96 right now. 4.96% of the yield on that 10 year right now. But we got above that level. And we got above there when you had the 10 year trading at 105.12, we're up by about 12 ticks. We'll call the 10 year 5% for all intents and purposes right now. We take a look at the yield curve in terms of where we are. You're talking about the 10 year, as I said, about 4.97 right now. You get down to the two year, 5.1. Now it's interesting, right? Two year had been as high as 5.2, had been above 5.2 versus the 10 year basically sitting at near highs. 30 years sitting at 5.11. Yeah, so on the shorter end, and you can see, right? On the shorter end, we're talking about what? One basis point, you're up by two basis points on the two year, but the longer in duration you go with the 10 year actually up the most, up by more than four basis points, even with that pullback right now to 4.96%. And that's the headline we kick it off with, man. The 10 year treasury yield tops 5% for the first time since 2007. Now this is gonna correlate to some of the stuff we talk about, one of those is housing, man. We also got a big deal, why not? We'll touch on it with Chevron, buying Hess, right? How about that one? Chevron, let's back it off a little bit more.  As of the close of Friday, we're gonna drop about $4 on the news that they'll be buying Hess for $53 billion. Now here's the interesting part about this. Chevron is gonna pay $171 per share for Hess, okay? That's a premium of about 10 to 20%, excuse me, that's a premium of about 10% to the 20-day average price, according to the statement. Okay, that's interesting. You can see how they locked themselves into this. Hess is trading lower right now. Hess is trading lower right now. This thing's been on quite a tear, okay? And that's where that gets placed into the statement. It is a 10% versus, what do they say, the 20-day average? How far do you go to go back to 20 days? Let's see, three, six, nine, 12, 15, 18, 20. Yeah. And so you're trading at 1.63. I mean, that's wild that they're basically gonna buy him at the price they're basically trading at, right? Is that it? No, 171, okay. Yeah, 171 per share. And so it's still trading at 1.63. So not exactly a done deal, manager. 1.62, 80 right now. Gotta be a little frustrating, the deal gets done over the weekend and it trades lower. It's been quite a run up on that potential, I'm sure, from 1.42 to 1.63. But nonetheless, it's the same price you were trading at on September 15th. Not a bad deal for Chevron to get this thing at that price. Now, the other side of that is, look at the run this thing's been on. Right? There's your five year weekly, man.  This means you're not gonna tear on a monthly. Oh man. It's too bad Chevron couldn't figure things out anytime sooner than right now, man. They're buying it at 1.71. Look at this long-term chart. And they come in and they buy it at 1.71. Never traded at 1.71 before. Makes sense if you're buying it. But boy, they had plenty of years to buy this thing between 40 and 60, right? Look at that. Remarkable. Now, one of the things they talk about here, Guyana, I guess, is the gem in here. The acquisition's gonna give Chevron a significant foothold in Guyana, the South American country that's one of the world's newest oil producers and enable faster production growth and more generous returns to investors according to the statement. Yeah, so it's gonna be an all-stock deal. They're gonna get 1.025 shares of Chevron for a hash share, giving the company total enterprise value of 60 billion, including debt. So another big oil deal gets done. We jump over to oil. We got crude. Dive in lower from 88 to 87 this morning. We got a lot to talk about, folks. Stay tuned. We'll be talking some tech earnings. When we go back, going over some of those tech companies, big week of S&P earnings, don't go away. We'll be right back. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. 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NASDAQ 100, that is, trading at 14,603, taking a look at the S&Ps. Let me take these shorter-term, sorry, one second. Let me take these shorter-term Fibonacci levels off here for a little bit of clarity. Now, we've been talking about a little area of confidence, man, and it's come in, right? We're talking about that area of confidence. I'm gonna go back a little bit further here, where you take the two different trends, okay? And I don't have to go back further, actually. You're talking about the lows of 3500, that 382 area, we're coming right into it, okay? So this is the first area, man. We started talking about this when you really got a rollover from about the 4,400 range. We're trading at 42.29. This area begins at about 4,200, but you're getting into this area, okay? You're getting into that 382 area in terms of this pullback. Now, where you get this box from is that if you also take the spike low from March, where this market really just surged higher on one-way trip from March all the way to the highs of July, you take the Fibonacci projection here, okay? And your 682 lines up with an area of 4,140. So that's an area of confidence. An area of confidence is two different trends from, excuse me, two different Fibonacci retracement zones from different trends, okay? You have a shorter term trend. That's the 618, you have a longer term trend. That's the 382. Those areas line up with a range of about 50 to 60 points. I put it on the chart and that's where you're coming back to, man. And it seems like that's the natural area you could finally face a little bit of resistance when you're trying to trade lower, because what do you have? You have a bunch of highs here that might act as a little bit of support when it was resistance. I mean, look at this area of 4,200. It's a very important area in the market. And we were 15 points away from it early this morning, okay? You originally have the first pullback area. When the market pulled back, you're talking about an area of 4,200. These are just simple areas on the chart that stick out, folks, okay? Then what do you get? You get the first, one of the first pops in May of last, yeah, last year, 2022. May, you jump up to 4,200. You get just above that area in August. You get back up in December to an area of 4,180. You get back up in January to an area of 4,208. You chop around at that area for a bit, 4,198, before really accelerating higher. So keep that area in your chart, man. 4,200, very critical area for this market. You trade below 4,200. And where do you find an area in this chart? I'm not sure. Probably talking 4,000, right? The next natural area, 200 points to the downside. We just ripped 200 points in almost a week. I mean, look at this week that we had last week. You had a high of 4,423 and a low of 4,243. That is 180 S&P points. So don't be fooled in thinking we can't see 4,000 in this market and a heartbeat, especially depending on how we get earnings going. Okay, so let's kick it off. We get Microsoft and Google tomorrow. You talk about some expectations, right? Microsoft shares trading at 326 this morning. We have a high of 366 out here. You jump over to the analyze tab and they are out with their numbers tomorrow. And you're looking at about a $13.64 move in either direction. Okay, as of Friday, about a $16 move is what you're pricing in for the entire week. Excuse me, back to an analyze, back to the earnings. But looking for the event, you're talking about $13.00. So what, maybe a 4% move in either direction? Microsoft out with their numbers tomorrow. You also get Google out with their numbers tomorrow. Google, you're looking at about a $7 move on $136 equity. Excuse me, we get Meta on Wednesday. Meta, you're talking about a $25 move. There's some volatility for you, man. Meta, jump over to Metashares, this thing. Talk about a rip roaring rally. From below 100 to above 300, we're pushing all-time highs, man, you get a big earnings number from Meta and you are pushing almost all-time highs, which is just remarkable to think about. Netflix just popped 15% man. There's a lot up in the air from Meta, advertising, the economy, Metashares. You're talking about a $25 move. Is that 9% almost priced in in either direction for this equity? They're out with their numbers Wednesday after the bell.  Amazon, you're talking about almost an $8 move for their earnings event on Thursday. Amazon shares this morning trading at 125, and you see the divergence of some of these different equities, right? Microsoft pushing near all-time highs. Meta, Facebook shares well off the lows. And then you look at a company like Amazon, man, still struggling dearly from the highs of 188.65. You're down to 80 bucks to start the year and you're trading at 125.17. Compare that to Facebook, right? They were under 100. They're above 300 now. Amazon, only 50% off their lows. Facebook shares 300 plus percent off their lows. And Microsoft sitting near the all-time highs is a way to put it. You jump over to Apple in terms of when their numbers are coming out, Apple shares. Yeah, that's next week. So they're coming out November 2nd, a week from Thursday. But this week alone, you're talking about three out of 10 S&P 500 companies reporting. I just went through it. We're getting Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, among many others. Let's see, what do we got on Tuesday? Yeah, look at all these companies, man. We got, as I said, three out of 10, right? So check it out on Tuesday. I'm just gonna jump through the list here. Coca-Cola, General Electric, GM, Spotify, Verizon, Visa, all announced their numbers on Tuesday. Wednesday, we got Boeing, General Dynamics, IBM, T-Mobile, jumped to IBM shares. IBM, they're out with their numbers Wednesday. You're talking about almost a $6 move priced into the earnings event. IBM shares, put it on a chart, man. This longer-term channel line. This is a weekly chart I have on IBM shares. You're somewhat near the middle of that range. But yeah, it's been pretty well-defined off the COVID lows, man. Chopping around to higher price, IBM shares just peaked above 150. You're trading at 157. They're out with their numbers on Wednesday. We also get T-Mobile set on Wednesday. Strong chart for T-Mobile. On the flip side of that, we were talking about Verizon, right? And AT&T, so Verizon is out with their numbers on Tuesday. On Thursday, Chipotle, Mexican Grill. They're out with their numbers. Boy, we've had some volatility the last couple of earnings events. Check it out, right? Six months ago in April, this thing spikes higher on their earnings. Three months ago, they dive lower on their earnings. Where do we sit? Pretty much right where we came into the earnings event six months ago. You jump over to the Analyze tab. They're out with their numbers on Thursday. There's a little volatility premium for you. $128.00. Well, it's an $1800 stock, Chipotle out with their numbers on Thursday. We get Comcasts. CMCSA is their symbol. You jump over to Comcast shares. They're out with their numbers on Thursday as well. Ford, see what they have to say in terms of the strikes. Seems like they're making some progress with the auto workers, Ford. I mean, maybe that's a nice area. I mean, look at this area in Ford, right? At least you get back against the wall, man. Doesn't mean this isn't gonna be a winning trade. But boy, the lows of 10.61 last year, and you've made lows, what, 10.61 last year in July. You make a low of 11.13 in October. You make a low of 10.90 in December. You make a low of 11.15 back there in March. You make a low of 11.25 back in May and you're pushing 11.64. And you got to like trades where you know where your limits are. You know where your stop are. You got to have stops. That's the bottom line. To finish up the earnings, what do we got? We got Southwest Airlines on Thursday. We got Merck, UPS, Charter Communications, Chevron, and, excuse me. No, that was Thursday. Charter, Chevron, Exxon, they closed it out on Friday. Nonetheless, big week of earnings, especially in some of the tech sectors, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon all this week. Stay tuned, folks, markets in negative territory. We're coming back for that opening bell. Don't go away. Currencies, commodities, and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity markets across the globe, which is why it's a great time to try out Teddy Kegstad's Tiger Forex Report. Teddy Kegstad breaks down the Forex markets every Monday using his 30-plus years of experience as a trading veteran of futures, forex, stocks, and options. Teddy releases his weekly Tiger Forex Report every Monday morning with coverage of all the major currency pairs, including the Dollar Index, the Euro Dollar, Pound Dollar, Dollar Swiss, Dollar Yen, as well as many more, and he also has weekly coverage of the crude oil market and the 30-year T-bonds as they both influence forex markets tremendously. When you sign up for the Tiger Forex Report, you also gain instant access to Teddy's 60-minute webinar archive he just hosted, forex strategies, and fundamentals, what is behind the Tiger Forex Report. For all the details and to start your 30-day Tiger Forex Report subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFN, educating investors. Are you ready to take your trading to the next level? Introducing Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter, Market Insights, your key to successful active trading. Tom O'Brien, renowned for his expertise in the financial markets, has designed Market Insights to be your daily guide to profitable trades. 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At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis, and it's not just dry, tedious text either. TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV, live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern. For free, each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while ticking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN. Educating investors. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV. Welcome back, folks. Excuse me, we got markets open. We got the S&P catches a little bit of a bid. We're 20 points off the pre-market session lows of 42.15. We're down just 13 points in the S&P NASDAQ 100. We're solid 100 points off the low last night. Coming into basically the lows of Friday's session. We're just off that level, negative by 46 or 3.10% the Dow right now off by 4.10% the Russell. Off by 4.10 as well. You check in on crude, 87.39, negative by about 70 pennies. Go contract off by about $6.00. Let's jump over to that dollar index with yields. This one's an interesting one, right? Dollar index got ahead of everything you could say. As in the dollar index is trading where it was September 26th, okay? Dollar index is trading where it was September 26th. Compare that to where we were in yields. There's September 26th, folks, okay? You have the tenure more than two full points below where it was trading at then. That is indicative of higher yields. Meanwhile, the dollar got ahead of it all. So now you got the dollar index plateauing a bit when we still have yields playing catch up. One of those is gonna catch up to the other. As in the dollar index is gonna continue with strength if yields continue to push higher or you're gonna potentially see yields consolidate for a bit which you look at this downtrend channel, man. Look at where we're bumping against, okay? Put this channel line on your charts, folks. Doesn't mean it's gonna happen but until it's wrong, it's right. Then that's a nice area that you can trade off. It's lower prices, it's higher yield on the long term and this has been well contained within that channel line. Really surprising how it reacted so quickly last week in the last couple of weeks from that spike high of 108.16 and just like that we traded down three full points to 105.10 and maybe we get a little bit of a bounce on these 10 years. All right, what are we gonna jump to next? Let's jump a little bit of housing. Nope, that's not what we're talking about but that's a teaser to what we will be talking about. Car owners fall behind on payments at the highest rate on record. Why not? We'll scroll through this one real quick. The risk of vehicle repossession is rising from many Americans facing a budget crunch. You know, I was thinking about this recently. A repo man? I don't think I wanna live the life of a repo man. Not an easy life. Some people probably thrive on it and do exceptionally well on it.  Some people thrive in moments of stress. Good old dog the bounty hunter. But man, there is a real opportunity to get into the repo business right now and that's the sad reality, what's going on? Americans falling behind on their auto loans, interest rates going higher, right? The percent of subprime auto borrowers, at least 60 days past due, 6.11% the highest in data going back to 1994. You gotta keep this stuff on your radar when you see things like the highest level in almost 30 years. You put it the other way. That's one out of, what? That's one out of 16 cars. One out of 16 auto borrowers is two months past due. In April that figure slipped from a previous high of 5.93% in January, but after burning through tax returns, contending with the shakier job market and grappling with a still elevated inflation, more car owners have become delinquent. Okay, and there's the number for you. And look at the spikes man, okay? Yeah, we're approaching lofty levels here in terms of, anyway, it speaks for itself on a graphical basis. All right, now I am looking for, come on, don't fail me, where are we? That's not it, oh shame on me.  No, that's not it, it's here. All right, we'll jump around. Yeah, I must have clicked off on it. All right, I was talking about renting versus home ownership, and we'll get there. I think it was a Bloomberg article I was reading. I get confused, I love Bloomberg, I love the Wall Street Journal. I'm pretty sure it was a Bloomberg big take article. Now I can't find it, we'll get it back up though. Oh, shame on me. All right, ah, perfect, here it is, the journal. Okay, it was the journal. There's never been a worse time to buy instead of rent. You talk about the same thing, right? You got renters in terms of the numbers that you're saving versus the number you're paying for a mortgage. Boy, you talk about a spike on a historical basis. Same thing, when you talk about the spike we just look at on delinquent car loans, we'll check this out, man. 52% more expensive to buy a home than to rent because of climbing mortgage rates. It shouldn't be surprising, right?  Think about the place, wherever market you're in right now, okay? Think about a very simple home. Think about a home, because it's a little bit easier for a home because apartment values can vary so widely, I find, depending on where you are, what kind of apartment it is, et cetera, but single family home. And let's just say a small starter home or something like that. So you do a three bedroom, one bath, a three bedroom, two bath, maybe a two bedroom, one bath, right? Think about what that home costs. Let's say that home costs $300,000, okay? Call it a three two, maybe it costs $350,000. Think about what it would cost to rent that home right now, depending on where you are, okay? I'm out in central Florida, near it, Lakeland, Florida. There's a lot of lovely homes you can get here for $2,300 a month, maybe $2,400 a month. The kicker is, man, when I try and do the numbers in my head and I say, what if I wanted to go out and buy that home? That home that you're paying $22 to $2,400 for out here, which is a great home, starter home, something like a three bedroom, two bath, right? Something like that, maybe a three bedroom, one bath, something $250,000 to $300,000 home. Maybe you're paying $2,200 bucks. Man, when you think about the mortgage it takes, when you think about what's happening right now, in Florida, okay, the amount of money that you're paying for insurance, asked to just through the roof, okay? And then of course you get taxes. You add that on to what your payment's gonna be in the mortgage rate. I mean, it speaks for itself, but check out this chart. This is the premium versus the discount to buy a U.S. home versus renting it. Now, for all you that went out there and got a home between the years 2012 and 2016 kudos, because it made sense, because in May and was it cheap to get money when rates were so low, you had rents at a pretty decent price. And I don't know if we're gonna have, we're gonna see those again, right? And look at the spike we've just seen. It's not surprising when you run the numbers. We've all seen them, right? We've all seen what it costs to sign a mortgage on a property that's $250,000 right now versus what it was to sign a mortgage on a $250,000 property and a mortgage at 3.5%. I don't know how this plays out. Now, the one kicker about this that's interesting is that when mortgage rates finally come down, you can make the very easy case that it'll loosen up the market and buyers will come back in. But what I can't wait to see is what about all the people that may sell for the first time in a while? Well, if they're selling, that probably means they're gonna be buying as well as in they're gonna get released from their houses and maybe they'll be able to trade up from that first house. So anybody who's selling to take advantage of the mortgage rates when they couldn't is probably doing it because maybe they're gonna buy on the backside and they didn't wanna replace it. Nonetheless, we're gonna finish up with this article when we get back. We'll talk about this. We'll also talk a little active versus passive in terms of investors. And then we'll talk a little bit of retail investors in here as well. Stay tuned, folks. S&Ps, negative by 25, we'll be right back. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices.  First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. 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To sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders, just visit the front page of tfnn.com. This program is brought to you by Vista Gold, traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. Back folks, the market's picking up steam to the downside. Watch out, man, we just gave it up like nothing, man. We're trading at 42.18 in the S&Ps. You're inching towards those lows of 42.15 right now. Seems like 42.00 it's on the radar. Look for that area between about 41.50 to 42.00, where we face a little bit of resistance, maybe possibly call it support to the downside. That was quite an area that was resistance for some time to the upside, and we're gonna face some resistance at some point in that area. Now, finishing the conversation up about owning to renting, right? You take a look at the numbers. And again, we're all familiar with the numbers, okay? We've all heard them because they're tantalizing to put it lightly. A person taking out a 30-year mortgage today on a $430,000 home with a 10% down payment would fork out around 3,200 in monthly payments, 60% more than if they had bought the same house three years ago. Rents have risen by a less blistering 22% over the same period, though this was still moderately ahead of wider US inflation. Those rents, as we know, those numbers, as we know, vary greatly depending on where you are in the country. Now, what they don't do though, is that they don't include in this 3,200, taxes and insurance. Think about that, okay? I mean, example in Florida. I mean, you're looking at easy. Florida, five grand in taxes, depending on where you are, that's a single family neighborhood approximately where I are. I'm just ballparking five grand in taxes and boy, insurance numbers depending on where you are. I've talked about on this program. They tried to get me in the private insurance market at like $7,200, went with citizens down to almost 1,300. Okay, but let's just say someone's paying three, four grand in insurance. They're paying five or six grand in taxes potentially. That's almost $10,000 over the year. You can easily be paying $1,000 a month in just insurance and taxes, okay? That's only 12 grand between the two. And I just told you that my insurance bill they were trying to get me to 7,200, okay? So you can add easily $1,000, but even if it's 800, right? You're adding 800 to $1,000 in taxes and insurance. The numbers you're dealing with, it's not hard to do the math and it's a lot cheaper to rent right now than it is to own a house, especially on a historical basis, depending, considering where we are. So you jump over to something like a simple mortgage calculator, right? And this is what I was talking about even. Imagine, you know, let's just do, watch, we'll back it down, all right? Let's do a $225,000 mortgage. And what I'm doing there is I'm saying you put 10% down on a $250,000 home, okay? You're paying at 8.6% a 30-year fix. You're paying about $1,750 right now, okay? You gotta add in that taxes and insurance though. And then what do you gotta add in? You gotta add in expenses, man. If you're coming to landlord, okay?  That gets you up to 2,500 right away, okay? And that's only putting 10% down. And then you have to afford everything else that might happen as a landlord, et cetera. You can see, man, if you know, most places folks that would be going for $250,000 that you're selling for, I'm not sure that you're, let's put it this way, okay?  And that's even with rents rising. Depends on where you are, but that's a simple case, man. You talk about a $250,000 home, you're talking about right away, your mortgage plus your taxes and insurance is pushing at least 2,500 bucks. I'd say you're probably lucky to get $2,500 a month right now for a property that you might be buying at 250,000 right now. Properties have gone up so much, think about what you're gonna be getting for that 250, right? And then think about the rental market in trying to get 2,500, 2,600 for a property you can buy at 250. I mean, tell me in the then, can you guys, girls, can you buy a property where you are right now for 250,000 for a sticker price and rent that out right now for above $2,500 a month? I don't know in many properties around here that you're gonna be able to buy 250 brand new and rent out for 2,500 plus a month. So at some point that's probably gonna normalize, but not just yet, right? All right, now this one's interesting. We talked about a little active versus passive investing. Just check out some of the numbers, man. And how the world is changing. Money managers with $100 trillion, that's right, trillion with AT, okay? Let me make sure. Okay. Conference the end of their bull market, we'll call it. It says the bull market. We'll call it their bull market, man. They got some headwinds to put it lightly. Active asset managers have been bleeding cash and strategies to stem the outflows have not had much effect. Many may not survive a bear market. Okay, now check out the numbers, man. You don't hear about all these cause all you really hear about is black rocket seams, right? They're just taking in all the money, man. But check it out. T-Row price, $127 billion has left them over just two years. Franklin Resources, the latest member of a billionaire family to run the firm is trying to reverse the nearly uninterrupted 20 quarter losing streak across the Atlantic. Aberdeen, Aberdeen, right, has reached a blunt conclusion. Mealy managing mutual funds is not enough of a business anymore. Across a $100 trillion asset management industry, money managers have confronted a tectonic shift investor appetite for cheaper passive strategies over the past decade. Now here's the kicker. About 90% of additional revenue taken in by money managers since 2006 is simply from rising markets, right? They always talk about how much money they have under management, but you talk about getting helped by a market that's going from $1258 to $4200. I mean, if you were managing $100 billion in 2006 and you just put it in the SMB, you're almost managing $400 billion. That's it. That's how it worked, right? That's not gonna be the case potentially and how are they gonna make up for that? And you look at the numbers of who's taken in what, man? That's Aberdeen, all net outflows, right? This is investors pulling cash, not talking about market appreciation. It's all outflows. BlackRock is really the real winner in here. Franklin Resources, they had one quarter. Maybe that was like one, a couple big inflows probably, right? I mean, that was the quarter when everybody had money in the middle of 2021 when Silicon Valley Bank was taking in all that money and putting it in Treasuries, right? That's the big quarter they had even in Vesco, they fared so well during again when everybody was flush with pandemic cash including companies. Janice Henderson, I see plenty of theirs commercials, man. One quarter of inflows in there. T-Row price, they were doing okay, not so recently. So it's interesting when you look at those charts, right? Wanted to go through there, interesting. And we got a comment from our man, John in Boston talking about those rents. Says, have you seen the rents in Metro Boston? 2500 doesn't get you far at all. I would agree, John, what is $250,000 get you though to buy a property in Metro Boston, which was the comparison, right? And that's kind of the point. What's the property cost you in Metro Boston? 500, 600, 700. I was running those numbers on a $20, $250,000 property. And that's kind of the point. You run those properties on a $500,000, $600,000 which is probably more of what you're talking about in a Metro Boston home, right? Quite a different story in terms of the rent that you're gonna have to recoup, et cetera. All right, we got volatility in these markets both ways. S&P catching a little bit, only down 18. The VIX, 2168. Stay tuned folks, one more segment, we'll be right back. The gold report. As a precious metal, gold is still king. It continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market. The US futures market and the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The gold report. Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly gold report every Monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the XAU, HUI, GDX, the Dollar, Bonds, the South African Rand as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy-sell recommendations. The gold report. 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If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today. TFNN.com, educating investors. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. Welcome back, folks. We've got the markets catching a bid just like that, man. We drive down to 42.13 and we've jumped a solid 23 points right back to the pre-market session highs of 42.36 this morning. In the markets, you're only negative by 12 and jumping back to that conversation about mortgages, because it's interesting. John from Boston, our man, he's talking about in the den, many people, right? Saying, man, 2,500 bucks wouldn't get you much, depending on where we are right now. Definitely rightfully so. Just trying to create one scenario. So let's run the numbers one more time to put it lightly on this housing sector, okay? You run the houses on a $650,000 mortgage, okay? So maybe you're talking about Metro Boston. There's tons of beautiful neighborhoods, I'm sure, where a nice, beautiful, single family home. Maybe you're talking about a three-bedroom, two-bath with a nice, fenced backyard gonna run you about 650,000. Okay, maybe beautiful data Massachusetts, beautiful Melton, Massachusetts. Probably higher in Melton. I'm biased, grew up in Melton. Beautiful Melton, Massachusetts. Beautiful Needham, Needham. Some of my friends live there. Great town on the Metro Boston area. 650,000 in Metro Boston. Probably pretty affordable on the spectrum of how houses go up in Boston, right? 650,000, you put down 10%. You're talking about a $585,000 mortgage. That $585,000 mortgage gets you a monthly payment of $4551, right?  My dad's right. I mean, I'm running easy numbers, okay? I'm trying to put things on the cheap side to show you. Everything's a million. I agree, totally. My dad's in there. I'm getting him fired up on real estate, baby. He's coming up at three o'clock. But to do the numbers, that's $4,500 on a monthly payment. You're adding taxes and insurance immediately is probably a grand on a house like that. So you're talking about a payment of $5,500 on a $650,000 house. Folks, it's hard-pressed for a $650,000 house, okay? To get $5,500 a month and I'm being kind. It's not happening right now. So rents versus mortgages. Interesting to see it when you put it on a chart in terms of how much cheaper or premium they are. But boy, you talk about premium. Watch out for this market, folks. It's rip-rowing higher right now. We're off by almost 30 points from where we were just 15 minutes ago. Stay tuned. We got our man Basil Chapman with the Tiger Technicians Hour. He's coming up next. Don't forget about my dad's Gold Report, folks. Great day to do it. He's got a new issue out on Mondays and he's coming up with three live programming all day, folks. Have a great Monday. We'll talk to you tomorrow. Stay tuned.


Hello, my name is Sachin Rathore working in mechanical engineering department from Walsh University of Technology, Sollapur. So today we are dealing with the selection of belt part 2. In previous lectures, we had seen the basic terms behind the or the basic knowledge of the belt. So in this today's lectures we are going to see how to select the belt from the manufacturing catalog from the course Machine Design 1. So the learning outcome of this session is at the end of this session the learner will be able to select the flat belt from the manufacturing catalog. So there are the 8 input data parameters we required before we are going to design the flat belt. First one, power to be transmitted, second input speed, third one output speed, fourth one the center distance that is the center distance between a two shaft belt velocity, belt system whether the open belt or the cross belt system that we are going to use. This condition means for which application we are going to use the belt drive and the eighth one is a manufacturing data. So the design procedure for the flat belt drive. Step number one, we have to calculate the pitch diameter of the pulley. So we have to find out the d, the small d indicates the diameter of smaller pulley. For the selection of the diameter d we have to select the diameter from the standard data book. So for finding the diameter d at least you should know how much diameter we required. So we have to calculate by knowing the equation v is equal to pi dn by 60. By using that equation you can easily calculate diameter of smaller pulley. So in which we have to consider the belt velocity. So generally the flat belt velocity is ranging from 18 meter per second to 25 meter per second. So we have to select any belt velocity and you have to calculate the value of d. So as you are calculating the diameter of the smaller pulley so we have to check out the design data book. So these are the preferred diameter. So whatever you are getting the value of small d by the calculations so we have to check out from this data book. So you can think that why we have to select the diameter from the given table. So as this diameter of the pulley are already manufactured or it is already available so we can prefer this data and you are going for that pulley diameter. If suppose the pulley diameter by the calculation that is v is equal to pi dn by 60 if we are getting the d is equal to 135 then at that time we can prefer the diameter of the pulley is equal to 140 mm. Next we have to find out the value of capital D that is the diameter of larger pulley. So we are knowing the equation that n1 by n2 is equal to capital D by small d that is the speed ratio of input pulley to the output pulley is equal to diameter of output pulley divided by diameter of input pulley. As we are knowing the input parameter that is n1 and n2 already we got the value of d you can easily calculate the value of capital D. Step number 2 calculation of corrected velocity or corrected velocity of the belt. So here we have to calculate v corrected is equal to pi dn1 by 60. So already we have made one assumptions that v is equal to 18 meter per seconds as we are selecting the diameter from the standard data book so definitely the velocity is going to change so that is why we have to select the corrected velocity. Step number 3 calculation of load correction factor from the manufacturing data book that is indicating by the letter F a. So this is a table for selection of the correction factor. So depending upon your the applications we have to select the F a value as the load is normal we can select the F a is equal to 1. If you are using the centrifugal pump fan light machine tool conveyor at that times we have to select the 1.2. If heavy duty fans are there compressors are there we can check out for the 1.3. If the shocks loads are there at that times we have to take F a is equal to 1.5. Step number 4 calculate the angle of contact of the smaller pulley. So it is denoted by the letter alpha s so the angle of contact of the smaller pulley is nothing but the portion of the pulley are going to contact with the belt. If you consider the smaller pulley how much portion of the belt are going to contact with the smaller pulley that angle we have to find out. So by using these equations we have to find out the alpha s value that is also called as the wrap angle of the smaller pulley. So as already we had calculated the value of capital D small d c is the distance between two shafts that is the input data we are knowing you have to calculate the value of alpha s. So this equation we are using for the open belt drive and for the cross belt drive just we are placing here the plus sign in between the capital D and small d. So by using this equation you have to calculate the wrap angle of the smaller pulley. So as we are knowing the wrap angle you have to calculate the contact factor arc of contact factor fd from the manufacturer in data book. So I have taken this table from the manufacturer in data book only. So as per your the alpha s you have to select the value of fd. So if the alpha s is 170 you have to take fd is equal to 1.04. Step number 6 calculate the design power. So we have to calculate the design power by using this equation pd is equal to p that is actual load into fA into fd. Step number 7 calculate the power rating of the belt PR that it is comes by kilo Watt per mm per ply of the belt. Step number 7 is calculate the power rating of the belt PR in kilo Watt per ply per mm of the belt. So this is a equation for finding the PR. It is used for the high speed belt and this equation for the fourth belt. So in this equation this equations we are getting suppose we are using the high speed belt at 5.08 meter per second velocity the power rating is 0.0118. So we have to calculate the actual power rating for that much corrected velocity. Step number 8 calculate the width of the belt it is denoted by the letter W. So W is equal to pd divided by PR into number of plies. So if you observe this will gives you the total width. So we have to select the total width for selecting the total width you should know how many number of plies you require. So these are if you suppose consider this diagram there are 1, 2, 3, 4, 4 plies going to use. So we have to check out for these number of the plies whether the width are available or not. So according to that we have to select the number of plies for availability of that width. Step number 9 calculation of length of the belt. So we are using this equation for the open belt drive for finding the length of the belt and for the cross belt drive we are using this equation. So you have to calculate total length of the belt. So by the above steps the design solution will be obtained as first one we had calculated the diameter of smaller pulley, we had calculated the diameter of larger pulley, the width of the belt, number of plies and the length of the belt. So I have taken the reference as a VB Banda Rebook. Thank you.