But the Ravens be packaging picks to make a major trade-up in the first round to take Isaiah Simmons? Bruce Arians already stated this to no goal, but with new videos servicing and Lamar Jackson even posting on his Instagram the possibility of Antonio Brown joining the Ravens, could Eric DeCosta actually make it happen? With the Rams having to make several tough decisions on their roster throughout this off-season and rumors about Brandon Cooks being available, should the Ravens make that potential move? Please and many many more questions on this episode of NFL Questions from Subscribers. You too team keep it clean, what's going on is saying Raven here with another video and another episode of NFL Questions from Subscribers. This is a series where you can ask me any NFL question you want to based off of any NFL team and we answered it in a video just like this. Now if you want to be part of NFL Questions from Subscribers just send me an email at teamkeepitcleanatgmail.com. 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in a Ravens group chat on Instagram he said hey I just sent you a I sent you a fire long question so I'm looking at it and this is whoo hey yo this is a long question anyway from my guy Devon he said what's up engraving I have an extreme hypothetical situation I would like your thoughts on so I first saw this on Twitter when it was suggested that the Ravens could trade Jude on in a third for Chris Jones from the Chiefs and then using cap space to sign to Davion Clowney but from there I thought what if we could do some contract work with the two of them to free up some more cap space from there I was thinking we could do what no one else in the league is willing to do sign Antonio Brown now hear me out we know he's hinted at this before and so is Hollywood we know Hobbes is a no-nonsense guy who would probably advise for him to be cut the second anything happens in the locker room and if anything went public in a break up between Brown and Ravens it's not like we haven't faced these things before Ray list Ray Lewis issue along with Ray Rice and you could even say the bits of trouble we've had with Jimmy Smith and Alice Collins I I definitely the raised stuff was on a much higher level than one Jimmy Smith and Alice Collins and even Terrell Sugg stuff Dante stall it's been different players been I mean every team got the players that go through this stuff but I think that Ray Lewis and Ray Rice stuff that pretty much trumped everybody but I see what you're saying anyway the Ravens are a team that has often had public drama before and never has it really been handled poorly by the organization so why not take a shot in the dark but there's even more to my plan I know you have continued to hint at the thought of Ravens trading up in the draft how about trading all the way into the top 10 Saints for Marcus Davenport kind of move oh they gave up a lot for that for the best overall defender in the draft Isaiah Simmons imagine a front with two the best interior defensive linemen in the league Campbell and Jones with a premier edge oh yeah this is after we would trade for Chris Jones I forgot about that along with the premier age guy like Jadavian clowning and then the fastest inside linebacker we've ever seen I was wondering what you thought on this situation would this be one of the best rosters ever in the NFL is this even possible and I'll find his dreams with the NFL had to start an investigation on EDC to see how in the world this is possible lol well wishes to you and your family shout out to my god Devin man appreciate you man I would love all of that but one thing that I've been thinking of man shout out to my god dog pound coverage man he's a he's a Browns fan he runs his Browns Instagram and he has sent me a DM today today is old I'm recording some March 27th by the way at 6 10 p.m. he sent me a DM of on Instagram and Tony O Brown was live and I was okay let me check it out see what you talking about he probably just chilling whatever joking whatever I will see I mean the last lives I heard about Antonio Brown it wasn't so good but I see you know let me see what's going on kind of this is a guy and I'm no scout or anything but I'm like this is a guy that there's been a lot of conversation especially amongst Ravens fans recently especially with all the posts he put out recently should the Raven sign Antonio Brown so yeah I'm like you know IG probably gonna just be chilling so he was he was on it chilling talking maybe somebody made him mad maybe somebody upset him I don't know but he was he was showing his texts he was showing his 1099s and showing just the money that he's made and I'm like okay we know you got money we know that but he was still he was just trying to prove that he's still making money even though he's not playing and I and he was just flaunting money then he started picking up like stacks of stacks of a thousand dollars and he picked up like 60,000 and put it to his ear and he was like oh it is at 60,000 in my still the best receiving NFL even though I'm not even playing and he's like oh $60,000 replies yes and he just it it was just sad man it was it was it was it was sad to see and I hated to see that because I was like man like I know a lot of people that ain't feeling Antonio Brown I know they're not but I'm like man like this stuff like that doesn't help and just it just it was it just seemed like arrogance it seemed like some arrogance and immaturity and he was talking about all these people they use my name and all these NFL players they use my name and they they call me this and they call me that and it's like um but and and that's true he has talked about in the NFL community whatever I mean we talk about him on here too but when he's talked about by people in that negative light when they say he's this they say he's that and he cues talking about the girl Brittany Taylor who got the the charges against him I don't know what the status of those charges are but um it's like he's talked about in a negative light so much but then he adds fuel to the fire by doing stuff like that and cuz he he was like oh uh Brittany Taylor he was like remember Jaleel Collins or something like that forgot what he said the guy's name was who used he said he used to play for the Texans or something he was like that was his girlfriend that was Jaleel Collins girlfriend in college or something he was like oh his girlfriend had a crush on me and in college his girlfriend had a crush on the best player at Central Michigan or whatever the school was and he was talking about how he was still the best receiver in the NFL even though he not playing and he just kept kept flashing the money kept showing the 1099s and stuff and it was like hey me and my baby mama we still be arguing but she's still getting money she downstairs and it was just ah it was just like I couldn't even get mad to me it was more sad to see I'm like man this guy like he's just for anybody that's watching this he's just making it worse and he kept saying oh it's a positive vibe it's a positive vibe but it was just a lot of arrogance and it was almost like like just sad to watch it was just sad to watch and I was like man like I just hoped that I hope things work out for me I hope things work out for him and I just want to see him do better me like not he's obviously doing fine money-wise we know that but just personal wise like I just I just want to see him do better than there so with Antonio Brown for me after I saw that live video I was just like man like just just his mindset just seemed like it seemed like it was immature man and again maybe somebody maybe somebody upset him because the way that he was talking to you sound like somebody may have upset him but it's a talented player and he was even talking about he's talking about he was with his trainer something his trainer said his catapult is better than most players in the league right now and he ain't even playing and he talked about he was like he did start talking about juju again he started talking about juju he said oh all y'all said that juju was better than me and he only got like five six hundred yards then he was like oh all y'all said another receiver better than me he only got six hundred yards he was like y'all keep saying these receivers are better than me but the numbers the numbers don't show it and he was like sometimes he said he's like I feel like y'all use like a different he said y'all use like a different measuring system when it comes to me versus when it comes to them something like that he said but it just to me what I it just seemed like he might be hurt man it might seem like he might be hurting from not possibly not being in a league maybe something else is going on I don't know I don't know but it was just for me it was sad to watch so I had to turn it off because he was about to get Floyd Mayweather in there and I was just like I just I can't watch it some more can't watch no more one positive about it was he was keeping it clean the whole time that dude did not say one curse word and I was like let's go let's go man I love it cuz I know he don't know what keep it clean I mean we saw them Instagram live videos from all them scenarios and stuff and not but he was keeping it clean did for this one and I was like wow shout out to AB but um as far as your scenario I um I just I don't think I could rock with it no more man all the talent in the world man all of it and more all of it would immediately be one of the best receiver on this team if he came on board and that ain't no disrespect to his cousin of course I mean but um I nah I just I can't man I can't I thought about it as I can't anymore so didn't know we're gonna be talking about the same question for 10 minutes and we ain't even talk about the other parts of it trading up for Isaiah Simmons I wouldn't be mad if they did that I would be cool with that and then actually trading and that that that suggestion came from Kevin Ostrich the um I know I said his name so wrong I know I said his name wrong but let me um let me find it right now because I quote tweeted it and I said that I would I would like that I said oh okay I see in there let me find it real quick Kevin oh Kevin Ostrich I I don't know how to say that last name but he was the one on Twitter that originally suggested it he said hypothetical Matthew Jude on in the third to the chiefs for Chris Jones and then Baltimore signs your David and Clowney so I think it was that suggestion that that my god they have saw um so yeah I'd be cool with that man I'd be cool with it that would definitely be something shake shake up everything and yeah I do like that last one I said well the NFL had to start an investigation on how EDC is able to uh to make this stuff possible whoo yeah they work because he been doing some wild stuff but appreciate your question Devin um whoo you did say it was fire I ain't know we were gonna be on it for this long but hey I'm with it man so I appreciate it thank you next question came from a boy Jack he said hey engraving love your work hope you and your family are keeping safe at this time I appreciate it Jack hope you too do you are you are too man it's been a long day man uh he said I know you touched on it before but with the new developments I wonder if you had any new thoughts on the is in Isaiah Simmons trade-up situation do you think we could be planning a big draft a swoop form we let peanut and Josh Byans go we still have Judah on the trade and I feel like we are looking to trade him as we are running very low on cap space and EDC doesn't seem like the kind of guy to go into a season with no spare cap to work with huh you said we did try to we try to sign Jamal Adams last year we have been collecting picks to me all this seems like his EDC is determined to build this defense into a monster we need a lineback and seeing as we didn't get Adams last year maybe they're looking at a certain blue chip prospect that could be versatile enough to feel either need now we have let our linebacker debt walk it will make sense for us to be looking at a player that is a short thing anyway that's my two cents what do you think and looking forward to more your great content so I appreciate that Jack hey hey y'all starting to put all these scenarios together for getting one Isaiah Simmons and yeah I've been saying the same thing to not as far as Isaiah Simmons but to that I see the Ravens possibly dread trading up in the draft especially if it's a short thing and somebody that they like oh man yeah like this this guy is a hit this is it right here I can see them now how high would they have to trade up and what would they have to give up to trade up and I know I've been talking to my boy JT about it he's been saying the same thing for a long time now to he's been saying a Ravens need to trade up they need to do what they need to do to trade up and he's been see he's been with cuz he got he got on that GM hat me I only put it on I don't even put the whole thing on on my head I don't even strap up the back you know where you put the little plastic pieces in where they snap like that but um I guess that's why they call it a snap back but anyway I don't even put the whole GM head on I just put it on the top of my head he has a GM hat fitted snapped tight all that stuff he always got it on and he was telling me some players that he'll be willing to give up and he actually been talking about this since during the season last season so it ain't like it's been nothing new for him but um I was like man you really willing to give up him and him too like oh man but it's no feelings involved with him man with me I can do got some fact I understand the business side and I understand the business side but with me there be a little bit of feelings involved but then I can understand too but with him no feelings involved whatsoever a thank you for your services you out we got trades you because we got to get better on our side wish you the best in your future endeavors enjoy but I oof trading up for Isaiah Simmons possibility yeah would it be crazy yeah without mind them doing that absolutely not I would love it next question came from a boy Kenneth you say what's going with you engraving my appetite because I what did I just eat oh I'm about to make some catfish now about to fry it up I gotta put the season in on it then for some flour on it then I'm a fried and then I'm eating with some rice and oh I can't wait but that's what's going on with me right now it's Friday at 622 p.m. just to let you anyway he said I'm fairly new to your channel I've been watching your videos for about four to five months now but I absolutely love your content so hey I appreciate it thank you thank you for watching I'm glad you found it and I thank you thanks for being part of team keep it clean he said anyway I have three a three-part question for you that might get asked before you get to this but I'm gonna send it anyway it's all good man he said first do you think the team franchise tagging judon was a security move to keep him or potential trade-based situation oh okay was a move a security move to keep him or a potential trade-based situation I think both I think both because it could be the latter the potential trade-based situation but if you can't find anybody that you can trade him with then you could resend him or you could he could still be on your team and you could try to figure ways around like okay we couldn't trade him all right so you know what we could keep him for another year see how it goes cool that says it is what it is so you could do that and then he said and if he does end up trade it do you think we should get clowny yes I am a yes I would be for clowny but not to a long-term deal short-term one-year deal two-year max with option year second year I do not want to invest in clowny in a long-term love how he plays but the injuries will scare me so I wouldn't want them to pay him no crazy amount of money and I wouldn't want them to sign him to a long-term deal and then he said he was a powerful pass rusher that not only can play defensive end but outside linebacker if we get rid of judon lastly with the latest rule update that just came out allowing players to smoke weed and such how do you think that'll affect gameplay again I appreciate what you're doing keep up the good work and nothing below brother appreciate that Kenneth um wow I would just huh I don't know I know they've been players that said they smoke before every game I don't even know me I don't even know I don't know I have I have no clue I guess cuz cuz I'm not a smoker you know his team keep it clean I'm not a smoker so I don't I don't know how that would affect somebody in sports would it make them sluggish would it make them sort of slow down and sort of droopy and a little less responsive and whatnot I don't know I mean they they they still get fine though they just wouldn't get suspended they still get fine so they they still gonna get tested and stuff but they just wouldn't be suspended for like they would before so I really can't say I really can't say so I don't know the answer to that last one next question came from boy Anthony he said hey man I recently got into your stuff of last month and it's always awesome watching videos I hope everything's been going well for you and keep it up I appreciate it man said sorry for all the writing by the way oh no this this is nothing trust me we've seen much longer he said Bruce Aryans of the Buccaneer State yesterday that that there is no chance of a B going to their offense I think it's very possible that EDC puts a B in with a veteran deal and uses the rest of the cap space to sign longer term deals with Humphrey and or Stanley that would make the most sense because the Ravens could humble a B especially with its cousin being on the team a B is also outstanding it would be a great target for Lamar adding more depth to our receivers the draft could focus on linebackers defensive linemen and possibly go late second or third for a receiver instead of a instead of wasting cap on a veteran the positives outweigh the negatives and it'll help us keep outstanding players like Humphrey with extended deals what are your thoughts on that I do think it's a possibility but again like I was everything that I talked about earlier and I mean obviously watching this episode of question from subscriber if you watch the whole thing through then you will have heard that that first question just my my thoughts on a B now because before I was I was a lot less opposed to the Ravens bringing him in and I just but I just just watching that video watching that live man I was just like ah I just I would love for him to just to grow up because it just seems like it's a lack of maturity I just and it seems like there's some pain too like I said earlier it seems like he's hurt from maybe not being in a league or something else is hurting him inside I don't know what it is but to me it seemed like there was some pain in there there was some hurt while I do think he could be great with the Ravens he's a phenomenal wide receiver phenomenal and if they sign them they sign them but I just I just don't for me I don't think it would be the best of moves right now next question came from a boys to find he said what's up in Graven hope you safe out there appreciate it man he says so what the Brockers contract being next should the Ravens sign ever since Griffin I think it would be a good fit by playing him a defensive in came by defensive tackle and Brandon Williams it knows tackle love your content and team keep it clean I had a burp that I was trying to hold down before I read the whole thing but it you obviously ain't work anyway shout out to my guys that fall man ever since Griffin could be a new option now I mean we talked about this before but this could he could resurface as an option now that the whole Brockers thing is done snicks snowless void is a wrap so I mean he had a longer stint with the Ravens than Paul Warlow did and I and he lasted longer than a Ryan Grant to so yeah he is a he is the leader for shortest Ravens career ever so he's got it so good for him but now it's all good man it happens so I mean yeah ever since Griffin could be a good option it could be a good option but again like it was pointed out to me shout out to my guy Marcus White that ever since Griffin is coming from a 4-3 so be a little out of position but sure they can make enough adjustments and he be fine next question came from me Zana he said hey it's me again he's on I hope you day is going well and stay safe out there appreciate it see I wanted to get your opinion on Terrell Suggs and honestly at the moment I have no clue what's going on with him in his contract whether he's a free agent or still locked up with the chiefs no he is a free agent he is as free as can be anybody can sign him he can go anywhere I haven't heard any interest of about him on the market I haven't heard anything about him whatsoever so yes he is a free agent and I mean hey what is his call what he wants to do next if you're gonna continue playing and wait for a deal cool but if he wants to retire you know Ravens are waiting with open arms saying come home and retire Raven next question came from my boy Andy Bermudez he said what's up in Raven love the videos keep it up my question is with all the reports saying that the Rams are looking to trade away Brandon Cook's at 26 years old do you think this is a good chance for the Ravens to get a wide receiver or should the Ravens just get a couple of wide receivers in the draft I was thinking they could land cooks and one receiving the draft instead of two or more I wouldn't be down for this I absolutely do not want them to trade for Brandon Cook's as a receiver he's fine but just the injury history the concussions catching the deep pass and he just get clocked the wrong way boom season done career possibly done too so I don't think it will be worth the investment to trade for Brandon Cook's would he work in as often as he could another deep threat add some more speed to the roster I'm at a veteran wide receiver who done played in every type of game but just the concussions I just nah I just I wouldn't want to do it so I would be I would pass


Hello everybody, thanks a lot for having us here after winning a slash Shanghai it's great to be here and thanks a lot for this last team for inviting us here and there should be a slide before that anyway so let me dive right into it the quiz we digitize accounts receivables accounts payables to make this asset class accessible to institutional investors and provide cash liquidity to small medium enterprises so they don't have to wait 60 days and longer for getting paid. Why are we doing this? We have 43 trillion US dollars in outstanding accounts receivables any given day worldwide and only three trillion in liquidity is provided by traditional incumbents such as banks leaving us with a market opportunity of 40 trillion which we aim to unlock in in the currently locked capital and focusing on a niche market of food exports from Europe to China and vice versa because we are based in Shanghai and we have an existing partner network that helps us tap into this market. Do we have market validation we should do these are invoice financing platforms and as you can see exponential growth so it's not only a massive market it's also a growing market whereas we focus on a very niche market of fast moving consumer goods. How are we doing this? We have a very easy to use web interface so as a small medium enterprise you go to our website you register upload your invoice and we issue the digital asset that token on your behalf. Why is blockchain important for you as an investor? Simply because this token is instantly tradable so it streamlines the securitization process so a secondary market it's available for institutional investors that is not the case at the moment and it solves and mitigates the trust and transparency issue in international trade which you currently have between buyers and sellers. Business model is very straightforward so we charge a service fee for this operating this technical infrastructure of 1% so a 1 million euro invoice nets us 10,000 euros and leads us to revenue projections of 11 million by 2020. We'll go to market as I said through partners in FMCG and the existing network in automotive and our competitors mainly focus on loans and therefore higher risk asset classes we are the only solution focusing on accounts receivables payables. Therefore we have a first to market advantage and blockchain has the two competitive advantages of serving the trust and transparency issue between buyers and sellers as well as streamlining the securitization process. It's very easy to use and since it's a marketplace it also has competitive pricing. Our team has over 50 years combined experience in launching digital products and I'm happy to answer your questions thank you. Thank you the final round of questions please. Yeah cool but I mean every time you introduce a new financial product like this it requires some experience and volume because money starts flowing to it and although now you do it based on blockchain as well which should increase increase trust I think that might mean that you will have a double gain trust issue until it's really out there. So my question is what are the things that need to happen before this can really start growing? So actually we use a standard a securitization from a framework of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. So something institution investors are already they already known so actually for us it doesn't matter if it's a token or not we actually only use the blockchain because it cuts out the intermediaries so since it's always accounts receivables accounts payables we can have a standard legal framework and we don't need intermediaries like custodian banks because it's already distributed over like as per se with the blockchain so it actually increases efficiency and it still has the same legal construct and for us as a platform operator it doesn't matter if it's a security or not because we only target institution investors and not retail investors. And you said the securitization model that's already that's a standard one. That's a standard one yeah but at the moment you had just have a lot of intermediaries which we believe that actually the blockchain technology streamlines and makes more efficient so it cuts costs and actually yeah it's just faster and how ready are you and so we have an MVP and a first customer which we are currently like progressing or like conducting the business the first proof of concern. Can you give us a little bit of background of yourself in the management team? Yes for me it's a second start I've been in financial technology my first one was in mobile payments 2011-12 raised equity crowdfunding twice successfully for that but too early wrong market was in Germany and the management team actually as you can see like Florian and Armin are actually managing partners of media man it's a German digital agency with 140 employees worldwide so they are minority shareholder and quite quite active so we have a lot of supporting URUX we have SOS Ventures as the first VC investors and actually Simon Capron is the former CIO of City Portugal helping us as an advisor and investor we have some other and advisors and investors as well actually just recently Amogo which is a part of Cardano invested in us or confirmed investment in us as well. Thank you and we are out of time and this was our final pitch so thank you so much. Thank you.


So good afternoon from my side. I'm Christoph comes from the ECB's Monetary Policy Department. So welcome to this afternoon session of our conference, which is also the last session before we're going to wrap up I'm very happy to chair the session in a conference that so far I've enjoyed very much And so the last session of today is on banking and safe assets. We're gonna have two papers The first one will be presented by Shohini Kundu, who is an assistant professor at UCLA He will speak about the aggregate effects of deposit shocks and then we are happy to have Salim Bahay From the University College of London as a discussant and as in previous sessions we're gonna have 25 minutes for the presentation then 10 to 15 minutes for the discussant and then Some minutes also for questions from the floor here in Frankfurt, but also from the online audience So if you are connected online please feel free to Raise your questions via the chat function. And so without further ado, I would give the floor to Shohini for the presentation Okay, great So first I'd like to start by thanking the organizers for giving me the opportunity to present this work today The title of this paper is the Geography of Bank Deposits in the Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations This is joint work with Sangin Park and Ashant Vats who are two excellent PhD candidates from the University of Chicago And both of them are on the market this year. So please keep an eye out for them So in the motivation the motivation for this paper comes from a simplified diagram of a bank's balance sheet In this simplified diagram a bank's assets consist of various types of loans securities and other assets and These long-term illiquid assets are financed primarily by liquid liabilities in the form of demand deposits Now this liquidity transformation is critical for financing long-term illiquid assets But it's also a key source of vulnerability for banks in the economy In this paper we introduce a new source of financial fragility, which is the geography of bank deposits We posit that the geography of banking assets and liabilities can make the economy on aggregate more susceptible to idiosyncratic shocks So what do I mean by this? Well banks collect deposits across geographies and then allocate it towards lending activities So concretely loans in Los Angeles might be financed using deposits from Washington DC And so local shocks that affect Washington DC can transmit to distant areas This problem is aggravated if bank deposits exhibit geographic Concentration and that's what we empirically test in this paper We show that local exogenous shocks to areas where bank deposits are geographically concentrated Concentrated can account for aggregate fluctuations, and that's what we refer to as the deposits channel of aggregate fluctuations So the research objective is can local deposit shocks account for aggregate fluctuations? The classical economics answer is no idiosyncratic shocks cannot account for aggregate fluctuations as implied by the central limit theorem But two recently developed lines of inquiry in macroeconomics challenged this view The first is the granular hypothesis of Gebex in which he argues that when Economic activity is fat-tailed in their finite samples the central limit theorem breaks down And the second hypothesis comes from Asimoglu, Carvalho, Ozdoglar, and Tabasco-Lehi In which they argue that idiosyncratic shocks are amplified in the presence of a network structure This paper combines both of these hypotheses First we show that bank deposits are geographically concentrated exhibiting fat-tailed and Second bank internal capital markets provide a mechanism for the amplification of idiosyncratic shocks through their network structure So the overarching objective of this paper is to study the mechanism through which the geography of bank deposits and idiosyncratic shocks can account for aggregate fluctuations There are four key findings in this paper First we introduce a new fact, which is that bank deposits are geographically concentrated Specifically we find that 30% of bank deposits come from a single county Second we construct novel bank-specific deposit shocks by combining the geographic concentration of deposits with local natural disaster-induced property damages Third we show that these idiosyncratic deposit shocks can account for aggregate fluctuations And the transmission of local deposit shocks into aggregate fluctuations occurs through the deposits channel So specifically local disaster shocks negatively affect bank deposits, which then negatively affects bank lending in other areas And lastly we argue that financial frictions are critical for the aggregation of idiosyncratic shocks These frictions include bank capital and regulatory constraints, bank's informational advantages, and the stickiness in bank borrower relationships So first is the fact, which is that bank deposits are geographically concentrated Note that this is the within bank concentration of deposits and not the within county concentration of deposits So using summary of deposits data from the FDIC We identify the share of deposits coming from each county for each bank Let me be specific on how we construct this figure We take a bank like PNC Bank and we look at where PNC raises the greatest amount of deposits from and we rank those Counties based on the share of deposits coming from those particular counties So county number one refers to the county in which PNC raises the greatest amount of deposits County number two is the county in which PNC raises the second greatest amount of deposits and so on and so forth So the x-axis denotes the county number and the y-axis denotes the share of deposits And here we have plotted three different lines So the blue line shows the simple average of the share of deposits Across all banks for each county number The red line presents a weighted average which weights the share of deposits coming Across all banks for each county based on the bank's total assets and the green line Plots the regression margins after taking out a county cross year and bank cross year fixed effect And we can see that regardless of the methodology the largest deposit county accounts for almost 30 percent of bank deposits Now you might be concerned that perhaps the geographic concentration of deposits is a fairly new Phenomenon or perhaps it's driven by the smallest of banks or the largest of banks So we do a battery of robustness tests in which we verify that the geographic Concentration of deposits is not a new phenomenon. In fact, we can see it from 1994 when our sample Period begins The deposit concentration isn't either driven by the smallest of banks nor is it driven by the largest of banks The share of deposits coming from the largest deposit county doesn't vary with the percentile of bank deposits bank assets bank liabilities or bank loans And the largest deposit county is scattered across the United States So it's not the case that the largest deposit county is all coming from New York City, for example So next we switch gears and try and understand how natural disasters affect aggregate deposit growth We show that local natural disasters negatively affect bank deposits both in the short run and in the long run And we identify county level shocks using local natural disaster induced property damages So this figure presents a heat map of the property damage per capita across counties from 1994 through 2018 And you can see that some areas in the United States are very prone to natural disasters Relative to other areas such as Texas for the Gulf region and some areas experience relatively less property damage per capita over the sample period and These natural disasters represent a wide range of hazard types Everything from winter winter weather and severe storms to hurricanes and tornadoes Some of these events occur very frequently such as wind and severe storms, but they don't incur nearly as high damages in terms of the total cost relative to events that occur less frequently such as hurricanes and wildfires So next what we analyze is the relationship between deposit growth in a particular county and the disaster shock in that county in the previous year And in our most conservative Specification we include county fixed effects to control for the time invariant heterogeneity across counties and state cross year fixed effects to account for state level trends and We find that a one standard deviation disaster shock is associated with a point zero seven to point eleven percentage points decline in deposit growth This is comparable with the 25th percentile of deposit growth So we find that a one standard deviation disaster shock corresponds to a loss of $570 per capita and so this result tells us that there is an immediate effect on deposits following a disaster shock Now naturally the next question that arises is is this effect transient or is it persistent? So to answer this question we study the Georgia projection in which we analyze the long-run response of deposit growth to disaster shock We find that there's an immediate decline following a disaster shock in deposit growth and this effect persists even 10 years after the initial shock and So the takeaway from this analysis is twofold First we find that local disaster shocks negatively affect local bank deposits and second that this effect is permanent So next we look at how disasters affect aggregate deposit growth by By constructing bank-specific Deposit shocks waiting the county level shocks by a share a bank share of deposits in a particular County and so here We have constructed this bank level shock by waiting county level damages per capita based on the bank share of deposits And after constructing the shock we established two key properties of the shock First that the shocks are idiosyncratic and second that the shocks are important So for the shock to be idiosyncratic, they shouldn't be foreseen or anticipated And so first we regressed our bank level shock on a multitude of bank-specific variables This includes total assets loans equity cash deposits hedging assets dividends and income and we find that there isn't any robust Pattern between these bank characteristics in the bank level shock Second from the univariate regressions We find that the explanatory power is close to zero Suggesting that these bank characteristics can't predict bank level shocks in any robust statistical or quantitative sense So even if you don't buy that we then analyze whether these shocks are idiosyncratic in two different dimensions The figure to the left Foughts the kernel density of the air one coefficient associated with these bank level shocks and the figure to the right Presents the kernel density of the pairwise R square for these bank level shocks and both of these figures Indicate that the air one coefficient is centered around zero as well as the pairwise R square This suggests that these shocks lack spatial and temporal dynamics and they exhibit low persistence in low cross bank Correlation, which are two properties that you might think are associated with idiosyncratic shocks However, despite being idiosyncratic these shocks are important in the sense that they can predict aggregate declines in deposits and liquidity creation So in these two figures we present the long-run bank response in deposits and liquidity creation to the deposit shock We find that there is an immediate impact Once a bank experiences a negative deposit shock and these effects diminish five years after the initial shock occurs So in terms of magnitude we find that a one standard deviation increase in the deposit shock is associated with 0.97 percentage points decline in deposit growth and 0.19 percentage points decline in liquidity creation So next we extract aggregate and granular shocks from these bank specific shocks using the giv methodology of gebex and coyenne So we take our bank level shocks and we weight it by a bank's share of lending activity in the economy to construct these aggregate shocks And then we construct granular shocks by subtracting equal weighted shocks from the aggregate shocks And the reason why we subtract equal weighted shocks is to remove the effect of all common factors So intuitively this granular shock captures the idiosyncratic deposit growth experienced by large banks following natural disasters Now this figure presents a time series plot of our aggregate deposit shock And we conduct a narrative analysis to ensure that these shocks don't just reflect noise But rather they reflect fundamental changes in the microeconomy of different regions And you can see that our aggregate shocks coincide with major natural disasters the largest of which is hurricane Katrina But there are also major floods and wildfires that also occur throughout this time period We then conduct a narrative analysis of the crest and you can see Based on this table that oftentimes these natural disasters affect Multiple states and oftentimes there are multiple natural disasters that occur in a given year And then lastly we show that these aggregate shocks are nicely correlated with the insurance payout Suggesting that if that the aggregate shocks reflect the magnitude of the disaster that occurs in that year So next is our headline figure in which we document that the granular deposit shocks can account for aggregate fluctuations And specifically we posit that there's a negative relationship between bank deposit shocks and GDP growth So in the next set of slides We'll codify this relationship more rigorously through regression frameworks and establish that the deposits channel can Explain a substantial amount of aggregate fluctuations of aggregate fluctuations So first we regressed GDP growth at time t on the granular shock at time t minus one And we find that a one standard deviation granular shock reduces economic growth by 0.05 to 0.07 percentage points This estimate is statistically significant at the 1% level and is robust across all columns Naturally the next question that arises is well how much variation in GDP growth can be explained by these granular shocks So to answer this question, we regressed GDP growth at time t on labs of our granular shock And we find that collectively the granular shocks can explain 3.3 of variation in economic growth as indicated by the r-square Now to understand whether 3.3 percent is a large number or whether it's a small number We study how our shock compares to other shocks that are commonly used in the macroeconomic literature And we do this by conducting a kitchen sink analysis in which we run a horse race between our shock Excuse me and other shocks that are used in the macroeconomic literature This includes oil shocks monetary policy surprises uncertainty shocks term spreads government expenditure shocks and gobex's granular residual And there are two key takeaways from this analysis First is that our granular shock can explain as much variation as other macroeconomic shocks And in some instances it can explain more variation than other macroeconomic shocks And second that the effect of the granular shock is robust to controlling for other macroeconomic Shocks as you can see by the point estimate across the first row Now a concern with our analysis is that yes, perhaps the granular shock can explain as much variation as other macroeconomic shocks But it may capture the direct effect of disasters on economic growth Rather than the effect of idiosyncratic shocks to deposit growth So to address this concern We examine the long-run response of GDP growth on aggregate disaster shocks Which is measured using total property damages per capita And we compare this to the response of GDP growth to our idiosyncratic shocks Now we find that there's no statistically or economically relevant direct effect of the disaster shock on economic growth Which lends credence to our main finding that The results are driven by idiosyncratic shocks to deposit growth And now using this setup, we're then able to estimate the deposit elasticity of economic growth And we do this using a 2SOS specification Now this is the main contribution of the paper This paper addresses an unanswered question in the macro finance literature, which is What are the aggregate effects of deposit shocks? Identifying the effects of disruptions in bank deposits on economic growth is a major empirical challenge And that's because so far the extant literature has relied on cross-sectional estimates The issue with using cross-sectional estimates is that aggregate variables that don't exhibit cross-sectional variation Can still affect aggregate elasticity So by estimating the beta coefficient and cross-sectional regressions A partial equilibrium effect is being picked up on but not a general equilibrium effect because the intercept has not been identified This identification strategy allows us to identify the missing intercept and directly estimate the aggregate effects of deposit shocks So in column two We first regress deposit growth on the granular residual And then use this instrument this estimated value to then estimate the deposit elasticity of economic growth We find that the deposit elasticity of economic growth is 0.87 Suggesting that a 1 percentage 1 decline in deposit growth is associated with decline in economic growth by 0.87 percentage points Now this estimate may seem substantial So we then estimate the loan supply elasticity of economic growth for which there are estimates in the extant literature And we find that the loan supply elasticity of economic growth is 0.14 Which falls within the range of past work that I have with nishant as well as herenio 2020 suggesting that this Estimate of 0.87 is well calibrated Now further we can use this setup to estimate the money multiplier And what we find is that a one dollar increase in deposits increases lending by one dollar 18 cents So far we have shown that deposit shocks can affect aggregate economic growth But the question is how do local deposit shocks affect economic growth? We argue that the key mechanism through which shocks to banks affect economic growth is lending activity And we establish this by using micro data on small business lending and mortgage lending So here in our estimation We study what the relationship is between lending growth Conducted by a particular bank in a particular county in a particular year On the deposit shock that's experienced by that bank Our identifying assumption here is that banks face identical investment opportunities within a county A weaker version of this identifying assumption Is that any friction which creates a wedge between available investment opportunities across banks within a county Is unrelated to an idiosyncratic shock that happens elsewhere And in addition we control for the time and variant importance of a bank within a county by including county cross bank fixed effects And so in studying the relationship between lending growth and the bank level deposit shocks Even after including high dimensional fixed effects We find that a one standard deviation Deposit shock is associated with a decline of 1.09 to 1.85 percentage points in lending growth Now you might be concerned that perhaps this is driven entirely by the affected counties that experience natural disasters So to address this concern, we disaggregate the lending conducted in unaffected counties and affected counties And we find that the estimate is significantly higher in terms of magnitude for unaffected counties Relative to affected counties, which is consistent with the literature that's documented That affected counties experience an increase in credit demand following natural disasters We further verify these results using data on mortgages So here, uh, we study the relation between deposit shock And mortgage lending and we're able to disaggregate based on the type of mortgage So in column one, we have new home purchases in column two. We have refinancing loans in column three. We have home improvement loans and we find that the pecking order of the effects on different mortgage types is consistent with the argument that, uh Contracting frictions are more pronounced for new home purchases because borrowers don't have an established payment history unlike with home refinancing and home improvement loans And so the contraction in lending is dominant in loan types where banks face more contracting frictions We also find that the effect is dominant for loans that are more likely to be funded by deposits Which further lends credence to the deposits channel of aggregate fluctuations We establish this by comparing jumbo to non jumbo mortgages So a unique feature of the mortgage market is securitization in which Oftentimes deposits are replaced with bonds as a source of funding And this is a result of the secondary market activities of the government sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac cannot purchase jumbo mortgages. So these are more likely to be driven by deposit funding So in this regression specification We compare jumbo originations to non jumbo originations conducted by the same bank in the same county in the same year And we also include county cross bank cross jumbo fixed effects, which also allows us to relax our weak identifying assumptions and consistent with this we find that indeed Uh, the contraction in lending is pronounced for loans that are more likely to be funded by deposits, which are jumbo mortgages Let me move this okay And then lastly, uh, we highlight the importance of financial frictions in the aggregation of idiosyncratic shocks I won't go through these results in the interest of time But we find that the lending cut is driven by constrained banks which cut lending more sharply in other areas when they experience local deposit shocks We also find that banks cut lending in areas where they lack informational advantages and they're less likely to extract rents in those areas And we highlight that firms which are more dependent on banks as a source of external financing drive the response and lending growth And borrower financial constraints and relationship frictions can exacerbate both the cut in lending as well as the real effects that are realized We conduct a number of robustness checks Uh, demonstrating that large banks are responsible for the transmission of idiosyncratic shocks that the geographic Concentration of deposits matters. It's not driven by shocks to collateral value or granularity and gdp employment And population so before I conclude and while I conclude let me just highlight the three key ingredients for this story For our results to go through there are three important factors that can explain how idiosyncratic shocks can account for aggregate fluctuations The first is that bank deposits Should exhibit geographic concentration The second is that the banks have to be large to transmit these shocks through internal capital markets And third is that the natural disaster has to be sizable If deposits were perfectly diversified Then even the largest natural disaster would end up being a drop in the bucket when it comes to effecting Funding for the bank If the bank is a small bank and it experiences a large natural disaster It won't be able to transmit these shocks through internal capital markets And if there's a little bit of rain even for the largest bank in the most concentrated market It's unlikely to wipe out deposit funding. So to conclude This paper documents a new source of bank fragility, which is the geography of bank deposits We find that bank deposits are geographically concentrated and we highlight the role of internal capital markets in propagating idiosyncratic shocks Specifically, we find that idiosyncratic shocks can account for 3.3 percent of variation in economic growth and the mechanism through which This occurs is that natural disasters negatively affect deposits, which then negatively affects bank lending And lastly, we highlight the role of financial frictions in magnifying the deposit channel These frictions include bank capital constraints, informational advantages, and the stickiness in bank borrower relationships Thank you, and I'm looking forward to the atticilline's discussion Thank you very much, Shohini, for this very clear and very interesting presentation And let me then hand over to Salim for his discussion Okay, can you hear me okay? Yes, yes, perfect. So thank you very much to the organizers for inviting me to discuss this paper. I really enjoyed reading it and it's a real pleasure to get to discuss So, you know I don't need to motivate this question. I don't think at all to this to this audience that they're looking at the aggregate effects of shocks to to bank credit supplier and the paper is is very well done There's a neat identification strategy There's incredibly thorough empirics as you saw from from the presentation that the question is important And you know, I've seen your family put this before I knew she would do a fantastic job in summarizing the paper So I'm not going to try and compete with her In doing so, instead I want to basically just take it as as read and focus discussion on some comments and reactions that I had So I want to do basically three things in this discussion First is just press a little bit harder on identification And you know, this fundamentally is a paper identifying an aggregate shock, which is very difficult It's very challenging And so as sort of like an intellectual exercise I wrote down another model to see whether I could actually get a situation where the granular IV they used is correlated with output absent any banking frictions It's possible and we can cripple about how level those mechanisms are But the main the main point of that is to I wanted to press the authors in a bit harder about what variation they're using and what's generally going to result essentially I'll explain that in the second discussion Um, then I want to talk about the mechanism and in particular the role of the wholesale market and smoothing these shocks And the allocation of deposits, which is not something that's really discussed In the paper. I think it's an important feature of of of how these shocks could propagate And lastly, I basically have a question about about non-legal deposits And it wasn't clear to me from from reading the paper how exactly You think you've you've dealt with that and so I wanted to raise that and put out as a final point Okay, so I'm going to jump into this little more about I wrote it down As a starting point it's super simple to explain it in about about five minutes Um, and then it will allow me to think about identification a bit more So I'm going to have a situation where there's there's N counties in the US and time index by T as a single trade of all consumption good And it's a representative household in each county and a bank in each county too Okay, so it's about our bank area Asian The households are going to maximize lifetime utility from consumption And they're going to consume an endowment And income from deposits of an indulgent interest rate here RT And their savings will be indulgent as to ET And then they'll have some period budget constraint And then there'll be some disasters and I'm going to assume that these disasters Are going to damage The endowment so one thing I'm posing here is that disaster does affect How put there was a supply surprising result to me I led the paper that actually if you just took an aggregate disaster shocks in the US they don't I'm going to make this assumption assumption that they do You know, we can cripple about that as well. So in period one This this county could receive a disaster poverty pie Which lowers its endowment to a level which is lower than y bar the average level of income That can they would receive In period from period two onwards It will always receive Y bar as its endowment and then we said heterogeneity and the initial level of income So it means some more heterogeneity going on as well which determine the initial size of savings and then turn the banks out So banks in this model, which is this is what it's really trying to include Are basically pure Essentially frictionless price taking intermediaries. The only thing I'm going to do is just force them to raise deposits From households in the same county when they're located. Okay, so they raise deposits always from one place so we just we just Inbuilt the the geographical Concentration that shahoney mentioned but they're going to Raise as much as they as they want at the very interest rate And they're going to lend to a national that tends to firm Okay, so there's no lending friction here at all and there will be some aggregate and evenology which just takes the sum of all the deposits Raised by all banks and and generates some aggregate Return from doing that in t equals one f and b concave and then from t goes into onwards We're going to have a little technology. Let's just jump directly to a steady state Everyone's savings in in period one will just persist into the infinite future. Okay And then GDP is just simply the aggregate output From from all lending plus the endowment And then equilibrium will just be a set of household order equations which pins down the amount of of Savings that households have a very interest rates and the marginal return on on lending Okay, which is a national variable and then rt Will will clear the market And then the key point here is that banks are available In this model. I could just have easily had every single household invest in physical capital and their investment would fluctuate as As they get hit by these disasters. Okay And I know similar to this model. So n will be equal to 100. I have 100 counties and 500 possible It's actually I'm not going to be concentrated for sorts these numbers are relevant But the point I wanted to make here is that The uncertainty is basically just coming from from sampling right so in some periods Five counties make it by an example disaster in other periods four megahit by disaster or whatever So all the variation out there in this model is just driven by Uh, the failure of a large number which was a key part of shahen's talk In the frequency of of national disasters. Okay, so in some sample some simulations There will be a lot of national disasters and others that will be a few. Okay So then we can just do exactly the same exercise as As shahen did. I can construct my granular instrument. That's simply the disaster Indicated whether a region hit a disaster or not I can weight it by the size of the bank's balance sheet in that region Which is just its share of deposits over the national share Mindless this this equal weighting thing, which is what the granular IV relies upon I can compute the correlation between this IV and output. Okay, and and actually the way this Watch the honey is really pushing for is that, you know, if everyone's the same And we're all exentered integral. There's no granularity. This this this instrument goes to zero Even though they may have some natural disasters There's no There's usually quite a short system that out and the correlation between between the instrument and output to zero And this fits the paper and you also get the result the disasters have a permanent impact on deposits and bank lending But that's simply through Households being permanent income consumers. Okay um Now let me just tweak this in a couple of very small ways. So the first thing I want to do is add worth heterogeneity So I'm going to make households have Different ex ante levels of wealth. So period zero endowments will be different. So some will have a high endowment Others have a low endowment. I don't make preferences on the bottom So I say I did it When you're ready the wealthy you have a lower margin to consume. Okay, that's why I'm sort of just forcing into the model here, and then when you do that and you simulate this model the correlation between The granular IV and an output and period two becomes positive and that would sort of push up the estimates that Shelly presented that would mean that essentially these deposit shocks are positive declarative output, right? So it's the inverse of the results we found in the data So it's just it's just making making your results seem weaker and the interesting business is really straightforward banks and wealthy regions More wealthy households have lower margins to consume. So when they get hit by a disaster their deposits fluctuates by less and so Disasters disproportionately hit these wealthy regions also hit larger banks And therefore the impact on aggregate savings is is smaller. Okay And that basically stabilizes output. Okay compared to a sort of just a shock that hits Poor regions and you actually can reverse that by changing preferences around. It's just it's purely a function of these As I assumed, okay The second thing you could try to try doing was looking at heterogeneity and how how hard disasters hit Okay, and and what I had in mind when I did this was the idea that you know a dollar of property damage Um does different things depending on where the disaster happens. So imagine a dollar of property damage in new york made you more Um That or a property damage it's more to gvp or more to the endowment of the people affected Uh, uh property damage in a rural area for instance, okay Maybe that assumption is is incredible. That's what I was going for If you if you have this uh, this setup, okay Uh, then you actually just get the exact correlation that uh, shahon which is that there's a As a correlation between the ground IV and alpha which is negative Okay, and the idea here is simply precautionary saving if you live in one of these regions where A disaster has a bigger impact because also different the given size has a bigger impact on your Income, uh, you want to save more and that means you have bigger banks and more disasters. Okay So I mean these are just different things that fall out of the model. Um, there's a bigger picture Uh, uh, I wanted to get from this intellectual exercise really which is that you know, the key empirical result in this paper is that disasters Hit harder when they occur in regions where big banks raise other positives Right, that's how the weighting is uh, is uh, is constructed.  Okay And you know, I fully take the point that the regions where banks as a whole Raise their deposits from these sort of concentrated reasons for all banks seems to be virtually were distributed across across the US But there was less evidence in the paper. I could see about how Where the big banks are getting their deposits from I was trying to find that And I think you need to do more to convince to read or you could do more to convince to read that There is nothing special about the regions where the larger banks are getting their deposits from Uh, that would explain your your results. So just that's just give me some some basic summary statistics What are their characteristics? Do they differ on their income levels? Which is sort of pointing to This sort of well-heard certainty point. Are they more dense? Are they local distribution hubs? Are they regional financial centers? Etc. All these things would generate a situation where uh, you know I'm thinking more disaster in new york where large u.s. Banks deposits Does have a bigger impact than disaster in a county where maybe smaller banks are are raising their deposits Okay, so I think I think it's more than just where the deposit's coming from. It's where the big banks are deposits from Uh, maybe I missed it, but I really cannot find that in the paper the second uh, and you know and just just for full disclosure the paper does control for for um For population weighting and GDP weighting and point weighting, but my point is more that there could be other mechanisms that work So that's sort of my my pressing on on notification um, then in terms of of the mechanism so You know taking taking the results hold its face value. What they're saying is that there is a permanent reallocation amongst banks in deposits where more of these eucnecratic disasters hit and when it hits a region where You know big banks are concentrated that will lead to even bigger reallocation deposits, presumably that was on my my reading of the paper Precisely because you know you can imagine a situation where there's a disaster People start making payments. They import resources from outside their county that reshuffles deposits around the US and One implication of this since loans are a liquid Is that this reallocation will require clearing in the wholesale market And this market isn't perfect because I've noticed for a long long time in this whole conference about imperfections in the money market And so I was wondering, you know, if you have this persistent and efficient allocation Of deposits, figure out the aggregate supply with just the fact that suddenly because we have these disasters The deposits are now in the wrong place compared to where loans are amongst banks rather than amongst geographies Doesn't that raise potentially the cost of intermediation? for the bank system as a whole because suddenly they have to reshuffle money around themselves to support the distribution of lending and you know higher costs of intermediation would in turn reduce Clear supply. So it's not about the aggregate supply but because it's per se it's about how they allocate it as a result Of the of the shop and so, you know, one simple test. This is simply is your it's a giv Collective measures of stress in the internet market for instance, or perhaps in money markets and the last thing this is part part the question is The key facts in the paper and this is this is one of the sources of variation that Showing to the results rely upon is that 20 to 30 percent of banks Banks in the u.s. raised 20 to 30 percent of the deposits from a single county Okay, and this is this is really the source of the variation for the The liv and sort of implicit in this and it's an assumption that the deposits that are supplied in this county are Related or reacts to disasters in the county, right? So they are somehow From from local agents, right? That's kind of the idea behind this um, and so, you know, the question I have was well, where does this concentration Come from And you're seeing the big national banks do this. So it can't just be regional specialization There's some discussion in the paper about online deposits and shuffling of headquarters around which I think is very welcome But the concern I have is that basically banks Book all their non-retail deposits through one or two Plants, okay So and that may not be the hq. It could be just, you know, a branch. They have a new york one of us sort of financial sector um So all the money to have the deposits covered by the same on the positive data I I presumed yes, I couldn't get the finance on this moment. Yeah for fdic If I look at the flow of funds around 25 percent of us deposits Excuse me. Just one second. I have time within the next minute. Oh, yeah, I'm going to use both points. It's fine uh So about 25 percent of from the non-bank financial sector mfs corporates rest of the world the federal government We'd expect these deposits sort of sit in one particular branch And there's also, you know, interbank lending and corresponding bank activity that will also take place In in so that's one or two branches And so, you know, I was wondering basically are these concentrated deposits really local? And you know as a test at the bank level Is there a difference in sensitivity between deposits and the disasters? Depending on concentration So that's what I want to say. It was a super interesting paper And I want to sort of push you to think a little bit more about your results by having this very impressive piece of work I thank you very much for the opportunity to discuss it Thank you very much. Salim. We now have uh, some time for a couple of questions either from Here frankfurt or from the online audience and and of course also I would like to give shohini Some time to react to your great discussion Maybe we're waiting for questions if shohini would already like Sure, so thank you salim for the very insightful discussion I think it gives us a lot to think about in the next iteration of this paper Um, let me just touch on two quick points So I think so far the paper is kind of agnostic to what actually happens to deposits following a disaster shock We haven't explored whether the deposits exit the banking system or whether there's reallocation Towards other banks in other regions, which from a policy perspective Has different implications in the sense that if you think that the Uh deposits are leaving the banking system entirely You might think that perhaps there's a failure of the discount window or the central bank and stepping in providing funds in the short run If you think that perhaps there's reallocation in interbank markets Perhaps it's the second channel you alluded to on interbank stress And I think the interbank stress channel is is very interesting and something that we should look More into but it's just something that um so far. We've been agnostic to as to what happens after Disaster hits The last point about the geographic concentration of deposits This point is well taken and I think it's something we've struggled with in this project Which is that we're in part limited by the data that's available to us the summary of deposits data Uh has some guidelines on how they book deposits in different regions, but we can't Entirely rule out whether deposits that are booked in one region may actually be attributed to another region In the worst case it's possible that it could understate our results if we end up attributing natural disasters in areas where deposits Don't necessarily experience an outflow or where the disaster didn't occur, but that's that's an accounting Concern that we've we've tried to do a number of tests to get at measurement concerns You know the headquarters switching how that leads to the allocation of deposits But we're largely limited by the granularity of the summary of deposits data And I think it's it's a it's an open question. Why is there geographic concentration of deposits? How does this vary? um Depending on the type of concentration and it's it's something we're looking into Thank you very much shahini. So i'm i'm looking around here. Um In the physical audience, is there any Any question you would like to raise at this moment? If that's not the case, then let me thank shahini and also salim for for two excellent presentations and discussions


My name is Ferley Rincon, I'm happy to be here and to present this joint project with Cesar Mantilla. This project is about the relationship between labor mobility rules and productivity in a control setting. We define labor mobility as the possibility of changing contracts, in other words, the possibility that workers could pass from one low wage sector to another high wage sector. In dual labor markets, the probability of transition between low and high wage sectors sometimes is different between workers with the same productivity. Do not depend on workers, but it is due to external constraints. We designed this online experiment to measure difference in productivity resulting from perceptions of labor market in a control settings. Let's imagine, let's imagine a dual labor markets where the only works is the same between sectors and the unique difference is the peace rate in both sectors. We call these sectors contract A and contract A and contract B and the difference is that the peace rate in contract A is twice contract B peace rate. We found that workers could be low productive because their effort does not improve their chances of getting good jobs. Out of the peace rate implies that more effort increase the worker pay off. We contribute to literature about relative payment and sorting in competitive environments. The main finding here in this literature is that workers' effort provision depends on wages, but also in the information that workers have about their co-workers' wages. And we explored the effort provision in a controlled environment where contract relocation depends on this provision. So in other words, we are, in this work we try to understand how the rule for wage changing is affecting productivity. Natural and field experiment have provided evidence that perform based payment affects effort provision and in this project we show that labor mobility leads to productivity-based sorting when rules involves effort provision. To understand what is the effect of mobility rules between two sectors of a well-made labor market on participants' supply of effort, participants were randomly allocated to tournament whose mobility rules define the contract allocation for five rounds. In this experiment, we write two types of mobility rules. The first one is the initial allocation rule, is how the first contract is allocated, and we also write the reallocation rules for contracts from round two to round five. And this capture labor mobility. Contracts for round one are allocated randomly or based on participant productivity during the practice round. We have two conditions. In the first condition is the lack treatment. Contract A and B are assigned randomly to the participants and in the merit condition, participants after the practice round are sort by their productivity and participant with the best productivity receive the contract A, that is the contract with high payment, and participants with lowest productivity receive contract B. Then we organize a participant if group of four players two of them with contract A and two of them with contract B. This we use a stratified group rematching to ensure that the group is always composed in this way to contract A and to contract B. At the end of each round, participant within a group where lexicographically rank using two arguments. The first argument is the contract type. It means that workers with contract A will be ranked first and second, and workers with contract B will be ranked third and fourth. We also use the numbers of tasks to rank in the contracts groups and workers from rounds two to five can be promoted or demoted according to these three conditions. In the first conditions, all contracts are reallocated randomly. It doesn't depend on the initial contract or on the number of complete tasks. And in the other two, participants in the second and third position in the ranking of the group compete for contract A. And this competition depends on productivity in two different ways. In the perfect condition, the contract A, the best contract is allocated to the participant who do more tasks in the round. But in the noisy condition, more tasks implies a higher productivity, a higher likelihood of receive contract A. In this round, participants have 120 seconds to complete as many tasks as possible. We use our randomization mechanism to minimize learning between rounds. In this table, we randomize the correspondence between the numbers and the letters, and we also randomize the order in the numbers of this code. People have to see this key table to complete the encoding of the numbers to letters. This, in this slide, I present some details of the experiment. We use an online protector experiment with two populations, students and non-students. We separate this in workers, paid and unpaid, and students who only study or unemployed people who are studying. If the age between the groups are similar, and this experiment was conducted with 207 participants in 18 sessions. Okay. In this table, I'm going to present the main results of this experiment. We found that an increase of 0.3, complete task when the reallocation rules depends on the workers' productivity. This increase in productivity is driving by workers, when the reallocation rule is perfect, and by students when the reallocation rule is noisy. When we do this OLS analysis for the pool sample, we don't find any effect of the initial allocation rule, but when we do this analysis for workers, we found that when a worker is, when the first contract of a worker is allocated by merit and in the other rounds, the reallocation rules, it's random, these workers reduce his productivity. But when we combined a merit initial allocation with reallocation rule with perfect or noisy, the workers' productivity increase. We also analyzed the transition probabilities by treatment conditions, and we found no difference between the transition of perfect and noisy treatments. So these results are driven by the perception of mobility that makes aliens ish of the treatment. The conclusion is this experiment tried to contribute to this question about labor, mobility, and productivity. We find that both treatments with playoff encourage participants to provide more effort. However, the effects are driven by perfect treatment for workers and noisy treatment for students. And we also find difference between the interaction of initial allocation and reallocation rules for workers, but not for the students. Maybe students are more, the competitive environment is more natural for the students, but for workers, we could think that the initial allocation is really important, and it is affecting all the rounds. And finally, I would like to say that if exclusion parties playing the system of dual labor market signals that this exclusion can be overcome, are fundamental to encourage efforts. Thank you.


Hello, I am Bruno and I am a student at the University of Greenwich and I'm in my final year of mechanical engineering and at the Madway campus and I hope that you're inspired to always follow your ambitions, you never know where it may take you. Hi I'm Dan, I'm a first year biomedical science student at the University of Greenwich, I've started quite late going back to university, you can follow your dreams and do it, it doesn't matter when it is, it's never too late. Hi my name is Josephine, I'm currently studying computing at the University of Greenwich campus and if you take anything away from this video, I want to encourage you to take that leap, just go for it. It was so quick and easy, I literally just called up and was like, do you have any spaces on the computer of course and surprisingly they did. They had to check on my qualification because I've got Scottish hires instead of usual aidables, but they accepted it fine. They basically considered all my education before as well because I also got educated in Brazil, but I also did my GCSEs here, they just considered everything, they tailored the whole thing to me and it was a very good answer.


This is Social Confidential, where ad-beaks, social media editors take a look behind the logo to find out who's tweeting and sharing for major brands. I'm Jessica Ferris, and I'm here with Nathan Olibach, who has drawn global attention for the surprisingly deep and introspective discussions he shares via the Twitter account of frozen meat brand, Steakum. So, Nathan, what initially prompted your conversational and not entirely meat focused approach? You've always just tried to figure out, you know, what's missing from the conversation or how can we insert ourselves in a way that's offering people something while also kind of like lowering the temperature of a polarization and outrage and just a lot of the stuff that stresses people out on a day-to-day basis. We're trying to be the frozen meat solution, I guess, to people's problems and some weird propaganda sense. What inspired the anecdotes or not data thread? There wasn't no one moment that inspired it in the news or anything like that. It was more a culmination of observations that have been going on. When I was writing that it didn't really seem like that huge of a thing, but I think the fact that it came from a frozen meat brand just kind of, it struck a chord. On that note, in one tweet you wrote, people think it's bizarre, ironic, and funny when a frozen meat company points out the importance of critical thinking, but chances are the same message would never go viral if it was just from a person. Do you think brands have a responsibility to use their social platforms for more than just marketing, but for the larger good as well? I don't know if I would use the word responsibility. The point of that message was just obviously very meta and I'm just trying to like self-actualize, you know, the fact that as a frozen meat company, everything we're saying, you know, we still have a bottom line and that's essentially what all of our marketing is geared toward, you know, we're trying to generate sales and generate brand awareness. You could say the brands have a responsibility to do good, but at the same time, I think those lines get really blurry as far as, you know, what good a brand can do and how much of that is ultimately self-serving. So if you had one piece of advice for other social media managers, what would you tell them? Pay attention to culture, being able to check for trends, follow, you know, influencers, follow various sources between politics and art and comedy. Just have like a good grasp on what's going on in the world at a given point because that speaks to the work that you produce. It's a lot more clear and a lot more current and relevant than it would if you were just following, you know, marketing circles or just some kind of like esoteric groups that aren't totally relevant to what you do. So follow culture and let that influence your work. Do you have an idea of to what extent the activity on Twitter translates to sales of the product? All indicators point to that every time we've had a viral spike, sales have followed that. Since we started going viral on Twitter in early 2018, we haven't ran many, if any, other traditional ads. If it's not from like a natural economic phenomenon, we can trace it back to Twitter work. Thank you so much for your time. I really appreciated that you were one of the first people I thought of when we came up with this idea and I knew I wanted to talk to you. Really appreciate it. It's a cool community and honored to be part of it. I'm Jessica Ferris. See you next time on Adweek's Social Confidential.


Hello, and thank you for sticking with me. I know that it's almost lunchtime and everyone is hungry. So I would like to start this one with a story. I had this great-grandmother. She was very nice and elegant old lady. And she was telling me the story how she got married to my grandfather. Back then, the marriage was arranged and her father did not agree with her choice. Because my great-grandfather was very poor. So she ran away from home, married him anyway. And by December they had their firstborn. And it was time for the harvest. And she needed to work anyway because they didn't have money. So she was going there with the baby, hanging the crow on a tree, and working the whole day under the sun. And she was telling me that there is no way that I can understand how she survived that, because we don't do that anymore. No one is going to do that manually. But when I was a kid, I grew up in a small village, and I had the chance to be on one of these machines that are doing that now. It's air-conditioned inside. And it's doing the job that otherwise hundreds of people should do manually. And it's doing it so fast. It's a very powerful machine. So that's just a small example how machines and automation help our life. In our job as developers, we probably can't do such a huge automation like this one. But still there are so many tools that can make our life easier and help us do our job faster and not repeat manually all the tasks that we have to do every day. So there are a few things that we can automate. We can spend less time on developing code, and we can track errors easily. We can check for all the standards that we need to keep. And, of course, we need version control. It's a very good idea after that to test our code and deploy it safely where we need it. So, how many of these tools do we need? There is not a great answer on that question. There are a ton of different tools there, and you announced all the time. And, well, it really depends on our organization, on our specific team case, and the projects type, and so on. So, just enough is the best answer, I think, like it depends what you need to customize, what you need to do every day, and how exactly your organization works. But still, I hope that the things that I found useful in my development job will help you at least give you ideas how to do that for your case. So, let's start with the very basics, the editor. Whatever you prefer, if it's IDE or it's a text editor, it depends on the preferences. And I struggled with IDE for several years. One day, he started making more noise than the washing machine. So, I decided that it's a better idea to find something quite, and something that I can extend and customize for my specific case. So, my choice is ATOM. It's a new editor built by GitHub, and it's actually a specialized version of Chromium that is designed to be text editor instead of a browser. It's highly extendable, that was the idea behind it, to be very easy to use, so even a school kit can use it, and also to be very extendable. As talking of flexibility, we can look at the editor plugins, almost every editor has it. And ATOM is even easier, because it has built-in package manager, so you can search for packages and install them inside the editor, or also start writing your own. And a few that can save you a little time. Terminal plus brings Terminal to your editor, so you can browse over to Terminal while you're writing code. Outcomplete, it's small thing, but it's very important. It can be installed for different languages, and there are several written for WordPress, for the WordPress hooks and actions. And, of course, the documentation, Dogbroker. It's a very useful tool that allows you to leave comments in the code for documentation to explain the next people how this is working. If you're starting to write a comment, and the next line in your code is function declaration, it will automatically detect it, and add lines for documentation, for the parameters, and so on. And stalking as code that will be more readable, let's take a look on the standards. There are so many that we keep. PHP standards, JavaScript, standards for WordPress, of course. And we will, from time to time, forget them. So tools to keep this in mind is like PHP code sniffer. It's essential development tool, and it's actually created by two scripts. One is checking the code for errors, and detect violations of particular standard. There is, of course, standard for WordPress, which you can download and install. And the other script is actually helping you to automatically fix the styling or code problems. There are also linters. There are small programs to detect styling errors in the code, and you can add them as a package in your editor, and see in real time when you are writing code warnings and errors if you missed something. You also have GS Hint. It's a tool for JavaScript development, and it helps you detect problems in the code as code grows very big. You can't actually check every line, and debugging takes a lot of time. So GS Hint helps in defining bugs and showing you where there are problems. To automate more things in one actual tool, you can use Go, which is a task built runner, and it actually can automate everyday tasks like minifying, erlifying, and wife rewarding of the browser every time when you change the code. Of course, there is also Grunt, which is kind of the same thing. There are both Node.js built task runners. Grunt was around for a longer time. It also, as Gulp has a ton of plugins, there are different opinions, and one people prefer one versus other because of how exactly the configuration is written. So what you prefer here is on your choice. And after all these, let's take a look on the version control. Version control is essential for every development. So you can... Version control is a system that records changes in the files, and allows you to recall specific version later. So you can track when changes are made, who made them, who introduced the problem, and so on. And of course, you can recall the old version if something goes really wrong. Some useful tools that you can add in your editor is git time machine. It helps you travel in time. So it shows you a plot of commits over the time, and clicking by them is showing you every change in that file that happened in the particular commit. Another one is merge conflicts. Two, it detects merge conflicts introduced by git merge, helps you to navigate through them, to choose your version, their version, combination of both, and then, of course, at end stage, the ready changes. And let's take a look on how we actually start working. We need a worker install. And there is no crazy fast way to do that. Let's say that you have 10 colleagues, they already installed a ton of plugins, they configured the WordPress install, and they're in the middle of the project. You need to join them, and you need to have the exact same thing locally. There are different tools that can help with that. At Cloud Favorite, we use Capstrano customization for that. It's usually used as a development, but it's also automation tool written in Ruby, but can be used in any language. And while we customize it to be able to create and set up worker installs with just several commands, that are just some of them, so it can help you create worker install, grab the database from a local server that already your colleagues supported there, so you have the same database ready. It also helps you to update that database if you're making changes and so on. Also, if there is a new version of WordPress announced and you want to test your project on it, you can change it with just one line command. It will just grab the version from the official WordPress repository, install it, and you have all the configs set up. Similar is to think you can do with Mac revigrant, you can actually mimic your production environment, and you can start developing the code on it. It's vagrant HHVM environment tool, and you also will have caching options as varnish and memcache, testing options, debugging, and so on. Also, setting up a worker install is pretty easy. You need just to set up a configuration file and run vagrant. And of course, here's WPCLI, which is a managing command line tool for WordPress. It has a ton of useful commands. Some small examples are for, of course, WPCLI, which can install WordPress for you locally and so on. And of course, plug-in install the entity management with a lot of sub-commands, so you can disable, enable teams, install them, and so on. And as going to the next level with that, there is a new tool that is in development called WPCLI, which is actually introducing the REST API in a command line tool. It detects how to discover the REST API endpoints and register commands for them, so you can use the REST API in your command line. At some point, I hope that this will be able to help us create local databases from production environments, for example, to be able to test the production changes locally, but that's still in the future. And after we've done that, we've created a worker install and we've done our changes. It's time to test the code. And here is time for another story. I had the honor to have this guy as our CTO for a while and one time in our call, he said something about testing that I want to share with you. He said that in his many years of experience, in a long-term project, it's most likely one of the two things to happen. Either the client will change his mind about some smallish part of the functionality to who that happened. Everyone, I guess. And either the developer will forget how exactly the code was written and what it exactly does. That's one of my favorite Stack Overflow comments from a page with hilarious comments in the code, so I guess that this happens to everyone, too. So, yeah, testing is really important and we'll talk about mostly acceptance testing. So, with acceptance testing, we can test new features, check compatibility with old code and actually check it from different points of view how the users are actually using our code. So, code exception is a tool for that. It's actually a full testing tool. You can do unit tests, functional tests and acceptance tests. In the terms of acceptance testing, there are a few models that you can use. PHP Browser is one of them. It actually is PHP Scrappers, it sends and receives requests. So, you can test a lot of things with it, not everything, of course. You can do assertions if some elements are on the page or they are not. You can also fill forms, send them and so on. It has some limitations, like if the fields are not informed, it can't actually fill them. It can't click on URLs if they're not in specific text and so on. So, here helps Web Browser with Selenium server. It actually is a model that helps you run Web Browser from PHP. So, it actually performs the actions that you need in particular scenario that you want to test, and it performs it in the browser. It's slower than PHP Browser, but it helps for testing of complete application with a lot of JavaScript. And also, there is WP Browser, which has all these useful models for specifically testing WordPress. It's also on GitHub in its open source, and there is a huge study on the code section side about the WordPress-specific testing. So, you can take a look and choose which one will be best for your case. So, after we finish with the testing, there is the next step, the deployment. So, we have been to the stage with the FTP deployment or just even changing something in the WordPress editor. But after all this effort to create clean code, test it and so on, we need, of course, a safe tool to deploy it. There are a ton of deployment tools, and I'll mention just two. The first one is, again, Capistrano. I obviously like it. And it actually has so many useful things. So, you can choose on which stage to deploy, like you can have dev, staging, production, or whatever stages you need. It also saves the release, how many you need and so on. So, if something goes wrong, you can just go back. Also, you can see in links some folders that you don't need in the deployment, like a Prodors folder. So, it's not touched during the deployment, and you can ignore files, of course, that you don't need to go on the server. It's not very easy to learn it, but it works really well on most of the cases. Of course, if you don't want to spend that much time to learn and set up a specific deployment tool, you can, of course, use what you already know, Git. So, you can set up just your server, like a new remote, and just Git push the code there. It's also more safe than FTP deployment because you can go back, and most of the hosts are supporting it. So, there are a lot of pros and cons on all that.  It requires a lot of time to learn these tools. It requires time to set up them. It requires time to teach your new members of the team how to use them. But if you do all this effort, and if you automate most of the things that you do every day, and it works really well for your specific case, writing a code can be just like a symphony. Thank you. I'm Ivelina. That's my Twitter handle. I work at Cloud Favorite.