In today's session we are going to see the decision making under certainty at the end of the session the students is going to formulate the business problem or industry problem in the linear programming for the optimal assignment of the jobs or the resource along with that is going to determine the schedule of job assignment with the minimum cost or the time involved in the process and the maximizing with the maximizing the profit or the sale of the assignment problem here this problem consists of the four labors or you can say the four workers to whom the particular four jobs should be assigned here the question is what there is a decision making regarding that the particular ABCD workers which job job number one job number two job number three and job number four means for person or the worker a either the first job should be assigned or job two should be assigned or three or four here the below there is a particular table which is defining the a minutes required by the particular worker to complete is respective job for example if I say if the worker a is assigned job number one means 45 minutes are required to complete the particular job one by the particular worker a and forty minutes are required by the particular worker a to complete the job number two and fifty one minutes are required to complete the particular job three by worker a in this way for each worker each job there is a payoff table which is defining the minutes required to complete the particular job by the is respective worker or the person now as I've done we are discussing earlier session further we have to come from the first step is what to come from whether the given problem or the given assignment problem is a balanced or unbalanced type of problem here the number of workers are four and the jobs are four means what four rows and four column means a number of rows are equal to number of columns that's why the given assignment problem is a balanced type of problem means there is no need to convert the particular problem in the balanced type which because already it is a balanced yeah that this particular problem we are going to solve it with the hangarians assignment method as per the hangarians assignment method the first step is the row reduction yeah in the original table the first table yeah we have to select in each row we have to select the smallest element or you can say smallest value in first that is a worker a that is 45 40 51 and 67 the smallest is 40 in second row or for worker be out of 50 for us or 57 42 63 55 the smallest is 42 as a highlighted or I have highlighted by the showing the arrows in each row we have shown it by the red color the row reduction means yeah we as we have selected 40 we have to separate it with the respective row to each p of element which are one of the example I have shown yeah 40 my sorry 45 minus 45 40 minus 40 it will get 0 51 minus 40 we are 11 and 67 minus 40 27 this is been done for the respective row that is a first row for the BCD same way 57 minus 42 42 minus 42 63 minus 42 55 minus 42 in same way we have to carry for the each rows this is a obtained table after the row reduction as per the rule the hangarians method there is at least one zero in each row at least one zero there may be more than one zero in each row but there should be at least one zero in each row second step is what after getting the row reduction table this is a row reduction table in that the second step we have to see the minimum value in each column that is of job one two three four yeah out of this first column 5 15 1 0 the minimum is 0 in second column 0 0 4 4 there is 0 is a minimum in third 11 21 0 and 19 the minimum is 0 and 27 13 16 14 there is minimum is 13 again similarly the selected minimum value should be subtracted with the each respective column elements after subtracting will get the table this is a table which is showing the subtraction I have shown the fourth column because when I have seen the row reduced table in each column I have getting at least one zero when I might subtract it with the each element of that respective row the value will be same but in the fourth column there is no any zero the minimum is 13 that's why the particulars in this table I have shown the only calculation of the fourth table that is 27 minus 13 13 minus 13 16 minus 13 14 minus 13 this is the table finally after the column reduction in this when we observe the row reduction and the column reduction here each row there is one zero in and in each column there is at least one zero yeah after this the particularly we have to draw the horizontal line and the vertical line as per the requirement and we have to bracket the zero the process is what we have to select the row first of all we will go with the row selection this is the table after the row and column reduction which is shown in this table we have to carry out this step number three yeah in each row we are first we are solving it with the row here in each row we have to see first row is a year only one zero is there so the rule is what select that row which is having only one zero now first of only we are getting zero that's why I will mark it by the bracket and I will hide it or I will particularly draw the vertical line as I shown here similarly after hiding this there will be a reduction of the means reduction of the second column of that is job number but to only again we have to see the next step again 15 21 and 0 is been left yeah I have not considered this second job because already it has been hired idea here there is 15 21 0 there is one again one once more there is a zero again I will hide similarly I will cover it by the vertical line as shown is here after that the second and the four job is been hired only first and third job are been non-hired again I will start with the first 5 and 11 there is no any 0 15 and 21 there is no any 0 1 and 0 there is 0 at least in third row that is C workup again I will make a bracket 0 bracket bracket for that particular 0 again I will hide in this step 2 3 and 4 columns are been hired it only one column is left that is a first and I start again with the first 5 15 1 0 at the last row there is 0 I will again mark it by the bracket again I will hide the obtain table will be in such a fashion here the 0 which is been marked by the prox are 1 2 3 4 as per the Hangarians rule when the 0 which is marked by the box if it is equal to the n that is number of column or row then the optimal solution is been obtained when I compare this particular table with the original table here I have shown the original table for the first step we have considered for the first step in the first and we have started the problem I marked here are highlighted first or original table here the 0 box here the value is 40 in second row where the 0 been marked by the box it is 55 similarly for the third and fourth here this values 40 41 and 48 and 55 these are the values means this table is saying what the particular worker a should be assigned job number 2 particular and worker b should be assigned job number 4 worker C the job number 3 should be assigned and worker d job number 1 should be assigned which is again I have shown in the next table or slide this is a worker a b c d job as I have told worker a is assigned here worker a is assigned job number 2 I have shown here worker a as assigned number job number 2 b 4 c 3 3rd one job and the d first job and the these are overall minutes required to complete the particular jobs here all the four jobs are been scheduled to each respective or you can all four jobs are been scheduled to each workers at a time we can assign only one job to one worker or one person which has been shown here also and the total minutes required is 184 this is the questions let us select the correct answer for the particular questions hope so you have selected this answers princess for the today's session


helping with the state and federal fundraising. And then we are partnering with the Burlington Student Foundation so that they will provide a mechanism for us to do the private fundraising so that we can do individual outreach and that's gonna be calling lists of people to ask if they want to have a gym named after them or a library and so that's gonna be a part of our fundraising strategy, that is a part of our fundraising strategy. Thank you, Councillor Chang. Any other councillors who have questions or councillor Carpenter? I think I said this last minute, I just wanna repeat that I hope you can, as we get closer to the vote, have developed a portal where taxpayers can figure out how the homestead credit affects them. It's so important and it's underestimated. I mean taxpayers don't understand, I mean they understand it when they get it, of course. But it's another translation and I just, the state has it in a global way and if you can get somebody with a creative mind to figure out that would be very helpful. Great, thank you very much, Councillor Carpenter. I remember that comment from last and saying it twice just means it's incredibly important and I think something that's shared by all of us to just give that level of transparency to our taxpayers. If there's no other comments, then we will, it doesn't appear as though there is a recommended action so I guess what that means is that we'll close this informational item and thank you very much. We will look forward to seeing you at our council meeting in August and please do communicate with us in between. Any information that you have and you can share with us would be greatly appreciated. The more time we have, the better. And thank you as well for staying until this hour. Greatly appreciate it. Wonderful, that's great, thank you again. So that completes our deliberative agenda and as per our vote to suspend our rule is that completes our meeting. So I will take a motion to adjourn. Motion made by Councillor Bergman and seconded by Councillor McGee. All those in favor of the motion to adjourn, please say aye. Aye. I assume no one is opposed. We will end our meeting at 11.25. Thank you so much for joining us this evening.


Good morning traitors. Happy Monday. Happy 2024. Thank you all for joining me. My name is Charles. I run a community called Pirate Traders. We are a set of traders that are focused on the ES, the NQ and the two way auction process. And I'm here this morning to talk to you about that. So first things first, let me just take a moment to quickly explain what the different software is that you're going to see on the screen throughout the the live stream here today. And then we'll get into some specifics about what's happening in the market. Okay. So over here on the left, this is a market profile chart. This basically is very similar to candlesticks, except that it takes the same information and it plots it out on a bell shaped curve. Okay. So the advantage that that lets us have by looking at the market's information on a bell shaped curve is that it makes it easier to see the specific price levels where the market likes to do business. Okay. So the way that differentiates from a regular chart, let's just pull up a regular bar chart. All a regular bar chart is showing you is where the market opened, where it closed, where the high and the low was, and then how much volume traded in that particular time period. So you know where the market went in terms of price movement over whatever given amount of time, and you know how much volume traded during that given amount of time, but that's all you know. You don't know specifically where the business took place on the vertical axis. Well, that's what market profile shows you by showing you both how much volume trades in a certain area and how much time the market spends in a certain area. It can give you insights as to which price levels have the most relevance. Okay. So the market profile allows us to map out the market and understand where the market wants to do business and what type of opportunities exist at those locations. So then we let our eyes roll right on over to the right side of the screen, which is where we have the book map software. The book map software is for watching the order flow of the market. So essentially all these little colorful things that you see up on the screen here, this is called the heat map. Okay. The heat map is really the magic of this tool because it allows you to see where the liquidity is currently in the order book. Okay. So where traders wanting to do business and then where was the liquidity in the past during different moments? So the market profile lets us see where the market did business. The heat map lets us see where they were willing to do business. It lets us see where the market, well, what the market was trying to do. And by comparing what the market is trying to do with its liquidity to what it is actually doing with its price action, you can find opportunities where you have an edge over the competition, where you see an opportunity that others are missing because you see the setup and then you see how it plays out. Okay. And then lastly, we may end up talking a little bit today about market internals. This is a set of tools that I use to kind of give me a look under the hood of the market. So to speak, this looks at the actual NICI and NASDAQ and measures, you know, the type of momentum on those, on that exchange level. And then that gives me insights if people are buying stocks, they're probably going to buy futures, right? The futures are going to come along for the ride because of arbitrage or vice versa. Okay. So now let's give ourselves some perspective for this morning, right? It's a new week. It's a new year really. And it's a new week. So we want to start fresh. We want to zoom out. We've been super focused on trading over the last week. And so we want to give ourselves some perspective. So the first thing that I'm going to do is I'm going to go all the way out to the monthly chart. Now, it might not seem like that is so that chart just looks so crazy to me now that we're back at all time highs. We've been in a bear market for so long, I've been like looking for resistance in here. So even just clicking on it now, it's like, man, it looks bullish. Looks like it's going the other way. Anyway, okay. So the reason that we start zooming out all the way on the monthly chart is because it changes our perspective. If we've been so zoomed in, we've been so focused on what the market's been doing over the last few hours or the last few days or the last few weeks, by stepping back and looking at it on a monthly timeframe, sometimes we can get some clarity. So what do we have on a monthly timeframe? What jumps out of me? Well, first and foremost, on a much longer multi year timeframe, the market had excess. It pulled back with price to balance off that excess. It has now returned back to the level where it ran out of steam, the previous all time highs. That is a setup for the market to either continue higher or look above and fail the all time highs. So I know, obviously, we're not talking about today, but I know over the next few months, what happens with the market is very, very important to give us insights for what will happen over the next few years, right? Either this thing is going to keep the momentum going, or it's going to fail. And we might have another year or two of sideways inside of this range. So we're at a very important area in general, this month on the monthly timeframe. It is also bullish to me to see that on the monthly timeframe, we had excess, okay, we were making higher lows and higher highs. And so far this month, we have an inside month. So right now, there's no information as to whether the market is going to continue higher or not. But if we poke up and make new all time highs, at some point in this month, we still have momentum on the monthly, which would be bullish to see. Alright, so we'll zoom in a little bit and we'll take a look at the weekly and see if there's anything else that jumps out at us, anything that's different from what we just saw on the monthly, now that we have a little more information. Okay, well, first off, talking about the excess and balance, this is a lot of excess on a weekly timeframe. Okay, that is nonstop higher highs, higher lows every week for, you know, one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine weeks in a row. That is a lot of excess on a weekly timeframe. One thing that we understand about excess and balance, they work a lot like ying and yang. The more excess you create, the more balance you need to balance off all that excess. Now there are two ways that the market can balance off excess. One way it can choose to just go sideways at higher prices for however long it needs to until it has balanced that off using time and then it can continue higher. Or you can balance off the excess using price, you can get a big move to the upside and then the market pulls back down with price that dip brings in the buyers to turn around and keep that thing going. Okay, we don't know on the weekly timeframe which of those two is going to happen yet, but we do know one of those two is happening. Okay, and that is fantastic because it gives us insights to carry forward. So what are we looking at first and foremost? Well, on this weekly timeframe, what type of balance are we going to get? Are we going to get balance with time or with price? If we start to make some strong lows this week, okay, and reverse the market back up, well then we know the market is balancing with time. We look to test the previous all-time highs and we do not fall in love with the trade. We take profits at the previous all-time highs and then we wait and see what happens there. Either it looks above and fails or it looks above, find support and we keep going. In which case we're bullish as a breakout of balance. Maybe that's all it needed. Just that two weeks was all it took, right? Or if the market continues the momentum to the downside on the daytime frame, we know we need to balance off this excess with price. We're looking for a larger pullback in price. So then we're monitoring for continuation lower. How much longer does the market keep giving us signals that it still has momentum down? That's the insights we can take away from the weekly, okay? I would also say this could be a setup for balance on the weekly, the candle that we made yesterday. If this week can stay inside of there, would set us up for some sideways. Let's wait and see. And then lastly we will zoom in and we will just take a quick look at the daily chart and see if there's any other insights that pop out at us when we look at the daily chart. Well, first and foremost, we can now see we have quite a bit of excess to the downside. We've been talking about all this momentum and all this excess to the upside because of this large move. But we've now on a much shorter time frame. Over the last week, just day by day by day, we're creating momentum down in price. So that tells us what we're going to find out from today's candle is do we get continuation of that momentum lower, which is balancing off the previous excess with price? Or does the market work its way up today and make a higher high on the daily time frame? If the market can work its way up and make a higher high on the daily time frame, well, then we're probably balancing with time. So each one of these insights starting with the monthly, zooming into the weekly, zooming into the daily tells me quite simplistically that one of two things is likely to happen today. Either the market is going to get above yesterday's high and that's going to lead to balance with time over the next days, weeks, who knows, right? Or the market is going to break yesterday's low, which is a sign of continuation of the momentum lower, in which case I want to be very bearish because we need a bigger pullback with price. We know we need a bigger pullback on the monthly. We know we need a bigger pullback on the weekly. So if we start to make new lows, I'm looking for a much bigger move to the downside. All right, so where would I be looking for the market to do business if that were the case? If the momentum to the downside continued? Well, then I'm looking at these previous highs in here. Okay, somewhere around that 4600 number, that is likely to be the next major support. It might be that we just barely have to touch it and then we can turn around and head higher. It might be that we have to kind of grind around in here one more time and then we turn around and head higher. But the next major support is these previous highs as a balance of price, not time. And of course, this is that gap that was created by having a contract rollover followed by FOMC that was bullish. So if the market needed to balance off that excess created from the contract rollover slash FOMC, 4600 is where it's got to come back to. So Charles, you're telling us it could go up, it could go down, or it could go sideways. Thank you so much. Yep, that's what I'm telling you. Have a nice day everyone. Bye bye. I mean, that's it. That's it, right? That's all we need to know. But by knowing it could go up as a continuation of balance using time, we know how to monitor the strength of that move. If they're able, so now we're zoomed in looking at the intraday market profile. So now we're able to say to ourselves, can they get the market up above the overnight high? The overnight basically just means everything from the close on Friday to the open this morning. So the overnight, can we get above their high? The highest level that they could get in that over the weekend. If we can get above there, we know that's the first sign that we might be trying to balance off with time. If they look above and fail, well that's bearish to see because it means we're probably not. Which means we're probably balancing with price. Okay, great. Well, let's say they get above there and they find support and they keep going and they get all the way up to yesterday's high up at 4760, right? Well, if they get all the way up there and then they poke above, now we know the higher probability is that they're going to balance with time, right? Now we know the chances that the market's going to keep going lower are significantly less because if the market wants to keep going lower, it should not make a high or high on the day timeframe. It should keep going lower today. So if we get above yesterday's high, that's the second signal of balance with price and the first signal against, I'm sorry, balance with time and the first signal against balance with price. Okay, great. Then once we've poked above yesterday's high, can we stay above there, right? Once we get above yesterday's high, what happens to the market? Does it instantly go and run out of steam and pull right back down? Or do they get up there and all of a sudden there's FOMO and the momentum picks up, the tempo gets faster, new volume starts to come in. If that's the case, well, then we know for sure we're balancing with time. And so if we're balancing with time, what was our target when we were back looking at the weekly timeframe, the previous all-time highs, right? So as crazy as it seems, if the market can get back above the high from last week and stay up there, that means it's likely going all the way back up to all-time highs. So we want to be very bullish if we see that. But what about the opposite scenario, the scenario where the market pushes down instead of pushing up? Well, as soon as we get below the low from Friday, which is $47.20, then we know that increases the odds, we're balancing with price. And that decreases the odds, we're balancing with time. Because that momentum on the day timeframe is continuing, so that is very bearish to see. So the next target becomes testing the overnight low and we see what happens there. Then the next target is testing potential support at $47.09, which is a base of single prints from last year. We see, can that hold? If not, then we're looking to test $47.00 and we're monitoring for continuation lower. And the further down it goes, the more and more bearish it is. Because it's just proof they are not balancing with time, they are balancing with price, and where is it eventually going if they're balancing with price? $4,600 area. So it's a party, guys. We could have some fun today. We are set up for some excellent opportunities and I'm pretty excited. 15 minutes till the market opens, hit me in the chat. What do you want to know? What are your questions for me this morning? Good morning to Will, Jay, who says, thank God it's Monday and the casino is open for business. Bus to move, hello, hello. Ships, hi to you. David G in the house. Mike, who thinks Jay? Ken says, Q please. Yeah, let's take a look at the NQ. Actually, let's just really quickly. We've got plenty of time. Let's do a top-down on the Q as well for some perspective. All right, so looking at the NQ here, obviously it looks very, very similar to the ES. It is a very similar structure. It is a little bit more bullish and I'll explain why, but it is basically exactly the same, which is that on a multi-year time frame, the market created XS, it balanced it off with price, it worked its way back to the place where the market ran out of XS, the previous all-time highs, and now we're going to find out what comes next, right? Exactly the same as the ES. Can they keep the momentum going or do they need to pull back and we maybe spend another year or two in this range? Summing in, looking at the weekly, yeah, I mean it's almost identical to the ES. So yeah, same exact thing, weekly time frame, you just have all this XS to the upside for however many weeks that is. You probably aren't going to balance that off in just one week, right? You're not going to have that much XS and it's instantly over and then the thing just keeps going higher. It could happen. I'm not saying it can't happen, but I'm just saying that is very unlikely. The higher probability is that you need to balance off all this XS on the weekly time frame. So you're probably going to need to spend a couple weeks balancing. Is it going to be with time or is it going to be with price? Well, we'll wait and see. Let's zoom in on the daily. So yeah, it's exactly the same, exactly the same as the ES. The one thing I would say is they came very close to making a high or high on the daily candles there. If they had done that, that would be a sign they've had enough of a pullback. Another thing that is different about the NQ and the ES is that, and I know this is going to get confusing when it's like we're balanced inside of balance, inside of balance, blah, blah. But there was a shorter time frame balance area up here on the NQ and the ES, which they both failed last week and we were talking about that on the channel. But the reason that that's important is because when you have a move like that, you often get excess the same scale as the balance. So you would expect the market to make a move, boom, right to where it did. So technically, you know, over a weekly basis, that might have been all the balance the market needed to the downside. And so you might be going sideways. So it's a little bit less bearish, but it is still bearish. No doubt about it. All right, so let's zoom into the market profile chart and look for some levels on the NQ. Yeah, I mean, I'm going to make it real easy for the traders who have patience here. I pretty much see the NQ as like either we get above Friday's high today around 16, 5, 89 ish. Okay. In which case this thing's going up because it's done with its down move and it's going to either go sideways or up from here or if we get a lower low, we're heading back down to fill the gap. So basically look for a very difficult choppy day inside yesterday's range because this could be the beginning of balance. It really could. It could be the beginning of some sideways here. The way you've got all these lows, these very strong lows. So I would be much less bearish on the NQ today than the ES. However, the second they make a lower low in the daytime frame, man, it's going down. It's going all the way to 16, 11, 18, but inside yesterday's range, which is a large range between 16, 403 and 16, 5, 70. I mean, it's 77.  So it's going to be a tricky morning on the Q, I think. Sorry Q traders. Sorry to be the bear of bad news. Any other questions from the chat? Good morning to Percy, Grizzly Bull, Ken and Ernest. Welcome, welcome. I also think this little node of volume that we're seeing down here, sorry, node of liquidity that we're seeing down here in the order books at 4705. I think that is there for a reason. Anytime there's a random level with that much liquidity, kind of just randomly sitting at an exact place like that, which to me it is a very random place, that is likely trying to be a magnet. It's trying to give sellers a reason to head down thinking they'll be able to take profits into that liquidity, thinking that the momentum to the downside is going to continue and that they should be bearish. And then that's the type of thing where maybe they get right below yesterday's low, maybe they get to like 4718, you know, and then poof, it disappears. If that happens, it means we're going nowhere. We'll get a look below and fail and we'll just go sideways the rest of the day. But if that stays there until price gets to it, well it will be a magnet. I suspect to pull on price. So I'm just going to keep an eye on it throughout the day, kind of keep zooming out and seeing is it still there or has it poof disappeared. Five more minutes to market open. Any questions for the pirate? Speak now. Good morning to Phillip, the demo trader. Welcome. Thank you for the reminder. Yes, everyone please smash that like button. We got 93 people hanging out, but only 22 likes. So that means most of you hate me. And that's not cool, okay? So you better push the thumbs up button or I'm going to feel unloved in this moment. Hey, 37 likes. Crushing it. Good morning to Nor Auto Trader and Frito. Welcome. Percy says, Charles can you do Bitcoin? I can. There was a twinkle in my eye this morning when I saw Bitcoin. It just won't quit. It just won't quit. All right, so this is a messy chart, but basically I'm bullish on the corn. I'm looking at this large move to the downside and the fact that the 618 is at around 4800 and I'm thinking that's where we're going. There's just a lot of support that continues to build. They are buying the dips. You had horizontal balance here, here, excess, balance, failure right into balance, balance, failure right into balance and now you're breaking out once again. So I would like to see Bitcoin work its way up above 4600, then come back down to 45 again and turn it into support one last time and then I'd be bullish for continuation up to 48. Good morning to NAP. Truman says, if they make a new daily high in the overnight, is that still a sign that there is enough balance done? That's a good question. So no, if they'd have made a higher high in the overnight, right, they poked above the high that we left behind last week, that would have been a signal that the market was running out of steam. That would have been a signal that we were more likely you know to test the previous high during the regular trading hours, but it would not be a failure of the momentum. If the regular trading hours open and they're inside the previous day's range and they work their way below the previous day's low, then it's continuation of the momentum and it doesn't matter what the overnight did. In the same way with the lows, right now the lows of the overnight, both on on Friday or Thursday night and then over the weekend, are telling us that the overnight thinks this is support, right? They think that this is going to hold and we're going to go sideways from here, but the regular trading hours have to do it. It doesn't matter until we get above the previous high, we find support, we prove that it's going to keep going. Otherwise, we could just smash right through all this support, squeeze all these traders and keep going lower. So we are opening inside the previous day's range. That tells me that we are likely in what we call a chop zone. A chop zone is basically when the market just needs to play tug of war for the first maybe 20 minutes, maybe hour or two of the day, the market just needs to chop around and grind around. I would call that chop zone high, the area that it will be stuck inside, 47, 46. The reason is because we have that weak reference that needs repair. It looks like that's what we're heading for, so that might be all the market wants to do is just poke up there and repair it and then it comes right back down. So that's my chop zone high and my chop zone low is going to be yesterday's low, down at 47.20. So as long as the market is between those two levels, it is likely to just keep grinding and grinding and grinding maybe for hours. Get as many traders long as they can, then come down and get as many traders short as they can and then come back up and get them long and get them short and get them long and get them short and get them long. And then out of nowhere they break one way or two other and they squeeze half the traders. So I believe we are looking at chop here for a good you know at least half an hour or so and we will look for signs that it's trying to break one way or another okay because it's a chop zone. All right we're above the overnight high, that is a little bit bullish to see but really what matters is what happens now that we are. Do we just repair 45 meaning we poke and get a point above it or I'm sorry and then once we do do we turn the overnight high into support 47.43 or do we fail pulling right back into the overnight range leading to more chop. Let's see what happens. Nor says Q nor you were just a minute late. I did the Q. We'll pop in real quick and we'll look some intraday levels. Okay so Q bullish right now above the overnight high you know short short term. I would say that's a breakout of a chop zone type of move so that increases the odds that they're testing they want to at least try to test yesterday's high. If they get above yesterday's high if they get above 16, 5, 78, 50 that would be how do I describe this the least bearish scenario that would tell you that they are no longer trying to take the market lower and the market is either going to go sideways or higher from there so you'd be looking for support at yesterday's high and continuation higher. Bullish you know isn't exactly the right word just not bearish but um but yeah it would be a little bit bullish especially if they can turn that into support. Now if they pull back through the opening price at this point if they pull back through 16, 5, 12 well then you're just going to get chopped inside yesterday's range okay. It's a chop zone I think it's going to be a very choppy morning for the Q. Okay so there is the repair of the weak reference at 45 so here is where we find out do we really have the buyers. If we do they should be able to hold support at 47, 43 if they fail more chop. Chat says do you trade live every day? I don't trade live but I talk I mean I'm trading but I'm not telling you guys my trades I just talk about the market live. I do market commentary every day and if you want to join the party just head to piratetraders.io and sign up for the brigade $10 a month they say it's the best deal on the street that's what they say that's what they say okay. Okay so we got a weak high and we've got some new buying up here that's a little bit bullish to see can they hold 47, 43. Frito says is that the word of the street yeah do Frito that's the word on the street that's what they say thank you bust a move thank you Jay good morning to Arjit how to watch them just like this it's on youtube head on over to pirate traders.io you'll see all the info there okay so we still got FOMO buying it is new buying but they're not letting it test that overnight high well Charles why does that matter why do we care if they pull back and test support because testing support let stronger hand buyers step in FOMO is weak hands they're traders that are buying at the high that can easily be squeezed if the market pulls back whereas the traders who buy the pullback who buy the support they are stronger hands that can be trusted so it is nice to see volume up here it is nice to see new buying but we need to test support we need to give those stronger hands a chance okay that's bullish they are breaking out of the chop zone increasing the odds that they want to test yesterday's high up at 4760 I will remain again it's hard to make a call bullish when the market is trending lower on the day time frame but I will say intraday for the moment I am bullish as long as we stay above the overnight high as long as that potential support at 4743 holds I will continue to assume the market's target is testing the high okay if the market pulls back down into the overnight range it gets back down below there well then I know I'm wrong and we're just in a chop zone and I'll expect more chop so can they hold it they've got the buyers they've got the target let's see what happens whoo look at that man some computer is like desperately trying to get short here that was weird okay support is holding all right moment of truth looks like we are going to test 43 if the buyers can hold it they've got the momentum for yesterday's high if they fail more chop can they hold it oh no nope all right that's a look above and fail of the overnight high and a continuation of the chop so that doesn't mean the market is not still going to go higher today it just means they're not ready right now got to spend some more time going sideways before we'll have the buyers to attempt another move up so I am now looking for support uh 47 36 and then 47 34 and more chop all right nq testing yesterday's high so this is very very important do they make a weak high and fail here or do they get above yesterday's high on the queue there it is above yesterday's high okay so this changes everything this is a sign as we discussed that the the intraday or sorry the daily momentum to the downside is over so that significantly increases the odds for one throughout this week we're either going to go sideways or we're going to start to pull back with price and it also increases the odds that we don't need a larger pullback on a weekly time frame that the higher probability is balance on a weekly time frame at higher prices so all of that is bullish to see so intraday can they hold it or do we get more chop but on a daily time frame a higher high is a sign the momentum down is over act accordingly next question will the es follow suit I absolutely hate these icebergs this is a certain type of thing that happens where someone somewhere has a program where they basically just latch a an iceberg to like whatever you know five points or three points or whatever it is from price and they just follow price all day and when one of those is there it's a bitch it's always really tricky so I am back to being bullish once again as long as we stay above uh 47 43 but I would caution everybody this looks like it's going to be choppy as he says does the test of the zero line on the internal on the internals equally important uh you're talking about the ticks yes that is also bullish so again the market's in a chop zone it's trying to figure out who's going to take control now we're back above the overnight high and the ticks are trending higher and above the zero line that is also bullish to see further increasing the odds that the market wants to test yesterday's high at 47 60 however I just want to caution everybody I do feel like it's going to be a very choppy choppy ride I don't like this iceberg these things whenever one of these pops up it's the market is really weird so you do that with the liquidity you got this pocket of liquidity down here and that one we talked about earlier oh that one disappeared but you still got this one there is a magnet tugging on price trying to prevent it from getting to yesterday's high so it does seem like it's going to yesterday's high but it's just going to take some effort to get there Maya says enqueue please Maya it my enqueue is bullish above yesterday's high neutral back inside yesterday's range so bigger picture it's it's not bearish right bigger picture making the higher high today means the market doesn't need to keep going down means for the next few days next few weeks it's fine going sideways or going up it's done going down that's what the higher high tells us but that's on a daily time frame intraday today it's a it's a matter of do they have the buyers to keep it going or not so they got to hold that high at 16 578 as long as they do they have the buyers and they'll keep it going higher and higher and higher all day long until they get cessation of the momentum but if they pull back down into yesterday's range again well then they probably don't have the buyers intraday today so we go sideways until we do so just bullish above the uh previous days high and the es is bullish above the overnight high see that's the kind of shit they do when those icebergs are there okay so once again testing the overnight high it did not hold to support the last time will it hold this time nope man gonna be a choppy one today because they got the games they're gonna play the bots want to get you long squeeze you strong and then do it again all right so another failure at the overnight high again increases the odds we need more chop so i still believe same thing i said last time we're heading to yesterday's high which is not ready yet need more sideways to bring in those buyers and i suspect we won't get there until this iceberg disappears this funky whatever it is okay i'm now officially keeping a close eye on this note of liquidity here at 47 33 the market was trying to head lower and it turned around what did they do they started bringing in liquidity here they wanted to turn it into a magnet for price the market continued to move away from it so they added more liquidity to try to make a magnet to pull back price price then made a pullback towards it but didn't quite make it turned around and started heading up again what did they do more liquidity so they are trying to turn 47 33 into a magnet to pull price back down so if the overnight high can hold and this disappears it's gonna move much higher very quickly but as long as it's still there they got a magnet tugging on them keeping them from taking off so i'm watching that very choppy so here as price starts to move away do they start adding more liquidity there or do they start disappearing it do they start giving up on it they're pulling it away they're giving up you see the color is getting lighter and lighter we went from dark red to lighter red somebody just gave up probably the same person that just got stopped out of a hundred shorts all at once sucks to be you bro rob says two good setups i missed so far don't feel bad dude this is so choppy choppy markets are always the kind you know choppy markets like this they're always the kind that when you look at them in hindsight it seems so simple you know let's say right now the market works its way above yesterday's high you'll look back at this chart this afternoon and it'll look like oh we opened we pushed above the overnight high we spent a little time we brought in a little volume we went to yesterday's high it'll look so easy it'll be like oh man look at that it just you know perfectly worked out but when you're there in the moment man it's tricky it's so choppy it's so difficult it's tricks you one way it tricks you the other way it sends you all these mixed signals it slows down to get you bored and then it moves out of nowhere very very quickly so yeah that's the bitch of chop it's it's easy to read and understand what the market is doing but it's hard to enter trades okay so obviously we got some sort of news here at 10 a.m. giving us a little news bodage they created a poor high on the market profile chart a poor high increases the odds that the market will push away from the price looking for support but once it finds support it will come back and it'll poke through the high and continue higher so that is actually bullish to see even if the market goes down because it means it's going down to fine buyers all right so I also just wanted to mention today is the last day of the promo for my upcoming workshop those of you that follow the channel know that I'll be teaching a workshop in February called mastery of markets and mind it is a two-week workshop four hours a day there are webinars from 11 a.m. to 3 p.m. each weekday for two weeks if you can't be there for the live webinars the videos are available afterwards so so you can watch them anytime and I teach everything there is to know about trading like it is all encompassing I will teach you how to read a chart I will teach you how to manage risk and most importantly of all I will teach you how to analyze your own thoughts and behaviors in order to develop a system best suited for those thoughts and behaviors right building a custom tailored system for you which only you can do so that workshop is going on a month from now in February but today is the very last day to get the discount price so with promo code happy 2024 you can save yourself 30% today head on over to marketsandmind.com if you want to sign up for that and if not come hang out with us in the brigade I run a community called the pirate traders and we have a membership group called the brigade it costs 10 bucks a month and you get to hang out just like this every day for the first hour of the day with that I will say goodbye because I got to go hang out with the brigade members got to have some fun as far as making calls for the market moving forward I would say bigger picture I believe that this if the ES can get above yesterday's high right it's always a if if it can get above yesterday's high then we know for sure but if we can get above yesterday's high on the ES I think we're probably looking at a sideways or higher week this week because if they wanted to take the market lower they should not make higher highs today so that is why I would believe we're either going sideways or higher over the week this week and intraday today as long as we remain above the overnight high as long as we are above 47 43 I believe the highest probability is that we want to test yesterday's high from there we will do what is called monitoring for continuation so we just assume it's going to keep going and we look for signs that were right do we get support do we break through resistance okay there's the repair of the poor high a sign that the buyers are in control bullish to see with that I will say goodbye to everyone in the book map I love you I appreciate you happy new year we'll see you next week members of the brigade let's ride


This is Orson Welles, speaking from London. The structure on the Thames, which houses Scotland Yard, is a warehouse of souvenirs.  Thames, bro, good leather, expensive make, but the dark stain near the heel, wasn't put there by the manufacturer. The Thames shoe, sir. Left foot. What do you make of this stain? Looks to me like blood. Today, that shoe can be seen in the Black Museum. From the annals of the Criminal Investigation Department of the London Police, we bring you the dramatic stories of the crimes recorded by the objects in Scotland Yards' Gallery of Death. The Black Museum. Museum of Murder. Here lies death, violent, unexpected death. Here, in the objects that line the shelves and fill the room are the stories of murder. Here's a birthday card to Margaret with love. A present went with a card, of course. The present was death. This glass. A man was drinking from it when he died, most unnaturally. The glass fell from his hands. After a jump forward instinctively to catch it, he caught it and left a fingerprint to send it to the gallows. Ah, here we are. Here's the Thames shoe. A left foot shoe. The darkest stain near the heel inside and out couldn't be disguised with polish. But there was no stain on it that morning of May the 20th, 1930, when the two men, one wearing this particular shoe, walked along the platform at Newcastle Station. There's a few minutes before train time, as they made their way along the platform.  I'm sure they do, my dear chap. It's not that I care to boast, but their attitude speaks for itself. In what way? Well, as you know, they allow me to travel with a colliery wages each Friday from the bank in Newcastle to our office at Oldman. That's a very responsible task. Come, my friend, admit the truth. What truth, John? Well, they really don't deny you to travel unescorted with so much money in that black leather bag. Oh, yes, they do. But there's no guard cuddling me pushing someone else on the train to watch you? None whatsoever. You see, they place great trust in me. Well, they do indeed. Mark my words, I'm in line for a colliery manager ship one day. And you deserve it, my dear chap. Sure, should it be a fine reward for 20 years' work? Oh, good morning, Collins. Good morning, Bernie. Fine, chap. He's a clerk with a neighbouring colliery. It seems to be empty. Splendid. We can have a good talk during the hour journey to Oldman's.  And smilingly took their places in the empty railway carriage. It was quite a change for Mr. Bennett to have someone to talk to on his usually lonely courier service.  For it was not his habit to trust strangers when carrying a large sum of money. But this chap seemed a decent sort. And, John, you simply must come on to dinner and meet the wife. That would be very nice, old chap. That's good. Well, shall we say, Friday night? Delighted. Yes, a very decent sort. Bennett didn't take easily to people, but this chap seemed to be his kind. Don't he met him in Newcastle a week ago, but he'd warmed him at once and then awaited with few people. And so the train sped along the north-eastern line. Heaton, Stannington, Morpheus. Small station stops along the line. At Morpheus, the train took up water. A few people got out to stretch their legs. Some passed through the barrier and gave up their tickets. Among them was a man in a gray overcoat. Tickets, please. Tickets, please. Wait, huh? Yeah, I won't say, sir. Your tickets for Olmuth. Oh, yes, sir. I've changed my mind. I'm getting off here. Thank you. Very good, sir. Tickets, please. Four minutes later, the train left Morpheus and went on its way to Olmuth. There, the passengers alighted. The journey was over. The porter then proceeded to clean the train as was usual. But in one of the empty carriages, he made a gruesome discovery. Hey, what's this? Blood on the floor? A stream of blood running from under the seat. He bent down to look and found the carriage not so empty as he'd imagined. Help, please. Somebody's been murdered. A step after the local police had been arrested and brought to the scene of the crime was to send for Scotland Yard. Scotland Yard. Oh, Inspector Kelly. Glad to renew your acquaintance. Aye, sir. Oh, thank you, Sergeant. That'll be all. Yes, sir. Sit down, sit down. Well, in answer to your question, I'm worried. You said worried. About the murder, sir? Yes. They all come to the chief constable of the county. The railways telling me that no one will travel by train unless the killer's caught. I see that point. Yeah, but that's only one of them. And then there's the colliery, insisting that we find the murderer of their employee and the... the man's wife, of course. Yes, I know. Well, you can hand all that sort of thing over to me now. And I can't say I'm sorry. First of all, sir, would you supply me with some preliminary facts? How much do you know about the murdered man? The chief constable explained it all to the London detective. The dead man's name was Wallace Bennett, a meek and faithful little man. For the past 20 years, he'd worked with the leading colliery in the district. For the past five years, he'd been their paymaster, traveling with his cash bag to pay the miners' wages each week in Almouth. Well, there it is, inspector. He took the train as usual this Friday, but he arrived at Almouth dead. And the bag in which he carried this money, sir? It was missing. The inspector wanted to find out first about that missing bag. Most of all, how much money it contains. He went to the colliery manager. Now, sir, I'd like to have your help in connection with the murder of Bennett. Well, anything I can do to help her, you can count on me. Well, first, I'd like to find out how much the bag he was carrying with him contained. Well, the person who can answer that question is Miss Robertson in our accounts department. Well, Miss Robertson, I expect you have a record of the amount that Mr. Bennett drew from the bank on the morning of his death. Oh, yes, inspector. I have a note of it here. The amount is exactly 400 pounds, 8 shillings and 4 pots. And how was the money made up? In various denominations, inspector, you see, it was required for paying the men at the colliery, but the greater part in pound notes. And, inspector, I thought that you'd be making inquiries, so I was in touch with the bank this morning. Yes. And it was paid out in used notes, and the bank has no trace of the numbers. Oh, bad luck. Well, thank you, Miss Robertson. You saved me a disappointment on the wasted visit. Now there were other things, other people to see. Among them, the doctor. Yes, inspector. I was called in by the local police when the body was discovered. And what did you determine as the cause of death, doctor? There were four bullets in the body, one of which entered the left lung of the heart. Yes. The other two were lodged in the brain. A killer took no chances. None at all. A scour was also fractured by a heavy blow, such as might be made by the butt of a revolver. I see. Oh, thank you, doctor. The motive was clear enough. Robbery. Somewhere was a bag and 400 pounds. And there also was a murderer, but where? Who was it? Morton found it hard those first few days, there was a body, a missing cash bag, and four bullets, that was all. The bullets were duly tested and traced. Nickel cap bullets, sir, unusual style, fired from a .32 revolver. Any hope of tracing that gun, Morton? Well, we're working on it now, sir. The train was started to search. No sign of the gun, but I'm having a very thorough search made along the railway track to see if we can uncover anything there. Good. I should think it likely that the killer might have thrown the gun out of the window. Well, let me know as soon as you're in the report, would you? Inspector Morton. What's that? You found the gun. All right, send it along as quickly as possible and we'll have it examined by the experts. Yes, sir. It's the murder weapon, all right. I've compared it with the bullets and they were fired from this same revolver. I suppose there's no means of identification on the revolver. The number removed and all the usual precautions. Oh, no, sir. The number can be distinguished. Watch more. I've made inquiries and we've traced the owner. Good. Sounds a little too simple, though. Where is the owner? Well, he's a foreign gentleman, say. Living here in Newcastle. They are getting hold of him now. Oh, Mr. Rossini, I want you to identify the revolver. According to the gun license, it's one that belongs to you. Ah, let me see. Yes, that's my revolver, all right. Oh, I can't tell you how grateful I am to you, Inspector, for getting it back. Oh, my wife will be pleased. I never expect you to see the game. You mean it was stolen? Yes, over three months ago. You can tell us back. Oh, she was so upset for annunciate. You see, my house was burgled and this was missing, among other things. I reported it to the local police. I see. Just one other question, Mr. Rossini. Can you give me some indication of your movements during the last seven days? Oh, that's very simple, Inspector. I only arrived home this morning on a business trip from the continent. You see, I've been in Paris for the last fortnight, but please don't let my wife know that. If you want any witnesses, that's very easy. I've been working in the Paris office of my company all the time. Don't be suspicious on me, will you? All right, Mr. Rossini, just as a matter of routine, we'll check your statement, but I don't think we'll need to see you again. Dead ends. Wherever they looked, dead ends. With the inquest pending, it looked as if a verdict of murder by a person or persons unknown would be certain. And yet that was not to be. A twist of fate, a new chance witness was to revive the investigation, set it back on the trail which led to the murderer and the bloodstained shoe, that same tan shoe, which can be seen today in the Black Museum. Then on the third day, the morning after the funeral, he was a short, dark-haired man whose name was Collins. He asked to see the inspector in charge of the case. Come in here, Mr. Collins. We can talk without interruption. Thank you, Inspector.  Well, about minutes. Uh, about his murder. Yes. I met him on Newcastle Station that morning before he boarded the train. You saw him then? Was he carrying his cash bag? Yes, he was. I've seen Bennett travel down to Allmouth every Friday for years, but this morning I particularly noticed him because... Why? Because he usually traveled alone. Wasn't he alone last Friday? No, he had someone with him. I saw them get into the same compartment. For the first time, Bennett's train companion entered the case. Inspector Morton wanted to know more. A lot more. Was the man a friend of Bennett's? Did he, Collins, know him? No, uh... I didn't know the man, Inspector. He was a stranger to me. And it's unlikely he'd be a close friend of Bennett. I think so. Of course, his wife, I mean, Witte would be the one to tell you about that. I'll check with her. Now, Mr. Collins, you've been very helpful, but can you help her a little more? Yes, how, Inspector? Can you give me a description of this man? Well, uh... I noticed he was shortish about my height. That's 5'7". Yes. Anything else? He was fair, small moustache. Good. And his clothes? He was wearing a gray overcoat, a gray soft felt hat and a dark gray suit. At least, uh... I could see his dark gray trousers. A red tie, I think. Oh, yes, and tan-broke shoes. You're very observant, Mr. Collins. Did you buy any chance to notice when he left the train? Yes, at Moorpeth. You're sure of that? I got out to stretch my legs when the train took up water there. I saw him go through the barry and give up his ticket. I saw a witness and a lead at last. It happens that way. A person remembers some incident, some unusual detail and the trail begins. Mrs. Bennett? Yes? I'm from the police. I'm sorry to trouble you at a time like this, but, uh, Inspector Morton, I'd like you to answer a few questions. I'll do it. Thank you, Mrs. Bennett. Now, uh, your husband left home carrying the black bag contained in the money? Yes. I was always worried about that bag. Yes. And do you recall on this particular morning whether your husband was planning to meet a friend or anybody in particular? Well, if he... if he was, he never mentioned it to me. He always traveled by himself as far as I know. Ah. Well, amongst your husband's acquaintances, is there any man you can recollect shortish, five foot seven? Fair hair, small moustache? Hmm. No. No, I can't think of anybody like that. He definitely wasn't a close friend of my husband's of that, I'm sure. Inspector Morton hurried to Morton to interview the ticket collector. Hey, a man in a grey overcoat. Last Friday, you said, sir. Yes, no short, fair man, dark grey suit, with a small moustache. Do you remember him? Oh, I do remember him. He had a ticket to all of us. But he gave it up here? Yes, he said he changed his mind or something. Did you notice that he was carrying a small black bag? I couldn't say what it was, really. He had it inside his coat. Covered up. It looked bulky. Inside his coat? Thank you. Thank you very much. A casual question had brought an encouraging, unexpected answer. The man who had left the train at Morton was concealing something bulky beneath his overcoat. The black cash bag was missing and this man had travelled in the same train, according to a witness, in the very same compartment. All he had to do now was find him. The thought was not too comforting. Find one man who might be anywhere in England, one man who had left almost no trace behind him. And then fate. Strange, incredible fate intervened. Or was it fate?  Anyway, it happened that same week at a hotel bar in London. Come on, have another, George. No, no, thanks, matey. I've got to be going. Come on, and pay. Rich, you've already paid for three. What's that matter? I've got money. Look. Limey. One pound notes. Hundreds of them. Until you're rich. Come on, have another. Two men drinking in a bar, two casual acquaintances. It might never have happened, but it did happen. And when one of them is mind-filled with misgivings and doubts, went to the police the next morning, Scotland Yard was speedily informed. Now, let's hear the story. Your name's Blakey, is it? That's right, sir. I'm a bus driver. This fellow I was drinking with, he used to work for our company once. Do you know him well? Well, no, hardly at all. I met him in the pub last night, and he kept on buying me drinks. He brought out this great fistful of money. How much money, would you say? Oh, two or three hundred, quit, I should think. Well, it may be I misjudged him, sir, but, well, I heard about the murder in Newcastle and the money being pinched. Who did the right thing, Blakey? Don't worry about that. What's the man's name? Linkman. John Linkman, I think it is. Do you know where he lives? No, I've not the faintest idea about that. But you'll find him most nights down at the Roundhead Arms, sir. In the bar there. The Roundhead Arms, a small pub on a London side street. A long way from the scene of the murder. But here, that same evening, went Inspector Morton. What'll it be for you, sir? I'll order them in a minute, Miss. Thanks. I'm waiting for a friend. OK. You might happen to know him. He's one of your regular customers. John Linkman. John Linkman? Oh, yes, I know him. Funny thing, I came in here last Friday to have a drink with him and seemed to miss him. Oh, that's no wonder you should have asked me. Johnny was away. He was away about a week. Oh, that explains it. Yes, some business trip, he said. Must have done all right, too, because he's pretty flat now. Nice to hear of an old friend doing so well. There he is now, just coming in. Hello, Johnny Love. Hello, Ruby. Find a bitter. Better make it, too. You've got a friend waiting for you. Oh, never mind the drinks, Miss. John Linkman? Yes, who are you? Inspector Morton from Scotland Yard. Scotland Yard? What do you want with me? One or two questions I want to ask you. Outside. With a firm grip on his quarry's arm, Morton left the hotel bar. Outside, a car was waiting. Morton and Linkman were drived. In here, Mr. Linkman. Dear Inspector, you must be out of your mind. What's the meaning of this treatment? Where were you last Friday, Mr. Linkman? Minding my own business. Well, come, sir, that attitude's only wasting our time. Well, I was on a business trip, if you must know. Where? In the Newcastle District. I'm a salesman. What firms did you deal with there? And what firm do you represent? I'm a private trade. I saw no firms while I was there. None? No, my trip was a failure. Then where did you get the very large sum of money you've been carrying with you lately? Money? What money? I think you know to what I'm referring. May I see the contents of your pocket? Certainly not. Then you'll force me to go through the formality of a search warrant. Oh, all right. Here. A pen. Yes. Some silver. And this. One pound notes. And a guess? About 300 of them. Linkman was held in custody, meanwhile Morton and the sergeant went to search his home. I'm sorry, ma'am, but we have a search warrant. Shall I start on the bedroom, sir? Yes, sergeant. What has my husband done? Why are you here? We're just making a preliminary investigation, ma'am. There's no cause for alarm yet. They searched the bedroom, the cramped lounge room with its fading wallpaper, the bathroom, the kitchen, pursued and harassed by a distraught Mrs. Linkman. Then, in the second bedroom... What has he done, Inspector? You've got to tell me. I'm sorry, there's nothing I can tell you yet, Mrs. Linkman. What is it? Awful. Awful? I've got something, Inspector. A tan shoe, sir. Left foot. What do you make of this stain? It looks to me like blood. We'll take it back with us and have it tested. In the laboratory at Scotland Yard, they found out it was blood. The bank in Newcastle identified the notes. In a police line up Collins identified Linkman as the man who had shared a compartment with Bennett that fatal Friday morning. And then the game was up. Well, Mr. Linkman, have you anything to say?  I can explain everything. Oh, yes. You must have found it in my flat. It's one of my shoes. Can you explain the stain? Yes, just by the toe cap. Somebody seems to have been trying to cover it with shoe polish, not very successfully, I'm afraid. Come along, Mr. Linkman. Can you explain that? I've never noticed the stain before. It's probably some oil or something. No, Mr. Linkman, it's not oil. I have the laboratory report here. It's a blood stain. All right, you know everything, don't you? Not everything, Mr. Linkman, but enough. Would you like to make a statement now? Very well. I'm glad it's over. Glad I can tell somebody the truth at last. Confronted with all this and the evidence of the stain on the shoe he'd vainly tried to cover up with shoe polish, Linkman confessed to his crime. And today that same shoe can be seen occupying a place in the Black Museum. Orson Wells will be back with you in just a moment. The trial was held at Newcastle with an eminent counsel retained to defend the prisoner. But inevitably, the sordid details of the crime emerged. Linkman being out of a job and needing money a chance to make the acquaintance of Wallace Bennett in Newcastle, learning his new friend carried large sums of money by train every Friday, Linkman carefully planned his crime. But he learned much to his eternal sorrows that care must be preserved both before and after murder. A moment's lapse, a few drinks and it meant the thirteen steps and the rope one morning not long afterwards. As the Lord Justice said in sentencing the prisoner the scales of justice are now balanced. Come on till we meet next time in the same place and I tell you another story about the Black Museum. I remain as always obediently yours.


Right so Yeah, so it's just I mentioned this already, but in some cases back from scar have reason to Suspect there's a pre-initial, but they can't tell what its place of articulation is so they write it with a capital C Okay, so we start with pre-initial s Basically all researchers who think there are constant clusters at all Think there is a pre-initial s, but there is kind of quite I mean I would even say vicious Disagreement about in which circumstances you should reconstruct This type pre-initial s and Zev Handel has a nice article. They kind of where he's trying to kind of make the camps kiss and make up So so so I think that's a good place to go for that, but you know, I'm gonna stick with back from cigars presentation so Type pre-initial as one of the origins of Middle Chinese type re-initial s as one of the origins of Middle Chinese s So here's a shei sheng series where you see contact between M initial words and an s initial word. Yeah so Here and in other places you will see that I give a Pre-chin form of the script And I'm not doing that in any kind of rigorously paleographic way It's just to help you see that the analysis of these characters as belonging to the same shei sheng series is Plausible so if you look at the fourth character on the slide It's not really obvious that it belongs in this shei sheng series But if you look at its pre-chin form it it seems pretty plausible, right? so in this series we have you know, let's say two two words that start with M one that starts with a With an X which actually it's probably some kind of font problem in my presentation There should be a little circle under that M because as we saw yesterday one of the sources of velar fricatives is voiceless labial Resonance so, you know in if you look at those first three you're like, oh, okay We we did that yesterday But now today we add in look what is an S initial word doing in this series? well Baxter and cigar say Actually, it also was an M initial, but it had an S pre-initial. So that's their solution to that and And yeah, and then I just am trying to go through kind of systematically in type a syllables So here we have an SM reconstructed in a type a syllable and here we have SM Reconstructed in a type B syllables. Okay, so now Yeah, I don't want to go through this too fast, but it's kind of Much of a muchness is what they would say here in the UK so SN develops into S in type a syllables and Here's the evidence. We have a sheshring series. That's mostly an initial, but it has an S initial word in it and In type B syllable so again mostly N initial but one S initial word And now with no so we have in type a Here I'm mostly no initial series, but with some words that start with S and in type B Again, a mostly no initial series, but with one word that begins with S in middle Chinese Okay, now With the lateral so I mean and this is actually a nice series in terms of showing you just how messy a Middle a middle Chinese, you know in middle Chinese garb a sheshring series can look but you we have this Contact between ya and da and ta so we saw yesterday. We reconstruct that as a lateral series And then We We have some S initial words one type a one type B which it's convenient because then we can just use the one series to prove both sound changes so we reconstruct SL as one of the sources of S and And You know a same style of argument here. We have a uvular series That suddenly has and it's actually a labial uvular series where we have a character with an S initial so So why not reconstruct a type pre-initial S? I will state it slightly differently, which is when a person has a syllable-based Orthography and they want to write a word that they don't know how to write they turn to a similarly pronounced word and And then press it into service, right? So I'm actually this is I haven't written it yet But this is what I'm planning to talk about in my evening lecture next week. So a very simple You know example, let's say let's say we speak modern English and We've just invented writing and so we have we draw a picture of a deer to mean the animal deer And then we find ourselves wanting to write a letter back home to our mother And we want to start it with your mother, but we have no no writing system So we don't know how to write the word deer So we draw a picture of the word deer and and now that works well because it deer and deer have segmentally identical Pronunciation at least in my dialect. Yeah, okay and then and then later, you know in the letter I find myself wanting to say I bought a new steering wheel for my car and I think gosh, how am I gonna write the word steer and Then I think well, it's awfully similar to deer, but it's not the same So maybe I'll like write a picture of a deer with a little car next to it. And then my mom will Will be able to say to herself, okay What word sounds like deer but has to do with cars and then she'll say oh, he probably means steer here Yeah, so that is the That is called the rebus principle Which is basically I mean, I don't know it. Let's stick with bolts here He thinks basically whenever you invent a script, you know ex nihilo you you use the you start with very iconic You know things and then you move to more abstract things through pronunciation using the rebus principle so we imagine That's what we're looking at when we see a shesham series is like this is a series of morphemes that That could that could be related to each other via the rebus principle Which means that their pronunciation has to have been Pretty similar. Yeah, and then the question is which which is partly just a question of your a priori assumptions is How similar can something does does something have to be to be permissible to use this rebus principle in the let's say in leaf on quays version of the shesham hypothesis you say Syllables must rhyme and have home or organic initials in order to qualify for this kind of rebus relationship and And and then I would say that you can really Set up different Chinese historical phonologists on some kind of spectrum In terms of how doctrinaire they are about this principle Where Baxter and cigar are very doctrinaire like they really think, you know, you cannot leave that as alone You cannot say that, you know, people are like, oh, yeah, you know guns son, whatever. Yeah Whereas other schools feel like, you know, come on like you The each act of inventing a new character happened in a specific time and place By a specific person and there's no way we can get in their heads and know exactly what they were thinking and Similarly, we can be pretty sure that they didn't hold some giant committee meeting where they all agreed like we will only invent new characters That have home or organic initials and rhyme. Yeah, so so so those people feel like you shouldn't push the shesham hypothesis too strongly And this is I mean kind of maybe you'll get used to this But I feel like, you know, the truth doesn't matter what matters is what's good methodology and clearly good methodology is to be as doctrinaire as possible, right and then and then Let yourself propose ridiculous things for ideological reasons and That is how you will discover Why they are ridiculous Yeah So that's you know, my feeling on on on this and I think that actually in the preface to his his dictionary Schuessler does this Schuessler is Thinks back strings guard go way way too far And so he tries to tell little stories about like why in this and this situation There was a counter prevailing consideration where basically, you know as someone found himself in in a tricky situation and So he found a pragmatic solution in terms of how to write something that that over read the shesham Hypothesis and I think that's you know, that's you know, how how that that's right, you know, which is to say That's exactly the conversation we need that it's yeah, exactly. Yeah, we need a conversation between the the the the ultra ideological shesham adherents and And and their critics who can come up with very good stories about why Being so ideological doesn't work in particular cases another labor uvular now in type B a Series that has an S initial. So let's reconstruct another as cluster But in this case, I'll just say it's not clear to me how Baxter and cigar decide whether or not This particular word is aspirated And I will also point out that there are no type B syllables that Baxter and cigar reconstruct with an S prefix to uvulars, but without Labio Labelization so we don't get any, you know as far as I can tell in the 2014 book We don't get any sq's without a w or a medial R and I just think that's a The pattern I noticed maybe it's totally meaningless, but that's I think that's the sort of we need to be on our toes for these sort of Phonotactic holes and and wonder whether maybe that they point to You know, maybe problems in their analysis. Okay, so Now Here's a series where we actually have an S connected to To a velar But and actually this is this is this is one where Morphological speculation comes in they think script notches and wedge are etymologically related And I think that's actually how they presented in their book But I I just sort of point out to you that this is also a sheikh and relationship So you can you can you can pause it at least some kind of Of S cluster in the word wedge purely based on the sheikh and relationship But the mismatch of the u-vehler with a velar is a problem And you you could of course, you know reconstruct the the velar as a u-vehler But the series overall does not have any other words That are incompatible with a velar initial reconstruction. Okay, so now, you know, I'm moving on again another example where we have a u-vehler series but with a With an S word in it And in this case, I would say it's not again. It's not clear to me why they choose aspiration rather than without aspiration Or why they don't reconstruct this series with with velar nasals because you can have a velar nasal origin of both the velar fricative and the And of course the velar nasal, right? So and and maybe this is just a case of showing you that that there's a lot of flexibility in their system, right? If you just look at these three examples, you could reconstruct it as they have s s q h m q h and and q h or you could reconstruct it s ng ng and and And you know ng the sort of voiceless ng and I think somehow that's this, you know I don't know this kind maybe just a question case I think that would have been a slightly simpler analysis because it would have left the the the view the Second character the velar nasal it would have just left it alone. Yeah, okay but But in case they do what they do and just to point out that they think there's actually a dialect split where s q h develops into in a different dialect and actually I think one of the most interesting and kind of productive areas of their book is pointing to Hypotheses of dialect variation that can then be more systematically explored Okay, so now, you know sts cluster. Well, here's this one's a little well. Yeah, this one's a little oh Yeah, yeah, okay So you have a ts in the first one and you have an s in the second one So they say well, maybe that's it comes from an sts. Yeah, and here's the same in type b So we have a ts h and s. So you think ah, maybe it's the sts Okay, and now those were all Examples of s clusters that became s in middle Chinese So now we will look at s clusters that become SR in middle Chinese and a you know is basically Not going to shock you that they're the same kinds of situations where there's a medial are so in the most Simple case They think SR becomes SR. Yeah, and Here's the the the evidence for it. We have a kind of our series And and there's an s in it. So Or there's an SR in it. So maybe take it back to SR and I Will just point out that They appear not to reconstruct any words with type a SR Although they do reconstruct s Voiceless are in type a so that's just I don't know. I just feel It may seem kind of random from you say, oh, look, here's a hole. Here's a hole But I think it's good to to you know, draw attention to these things. Okay, so then we also have Soon becomes SR like in this case where you know, you have Preclear, right? You have Vila nasal series And then you have an SR in it. So you take it back to s Vila nasal are They appear not to reconstruct any words in type a with this cluster. Okay Now that was it for SR. Now we move on to s y in middle Chinese So they propose these changes in Type a syllables so stuff stuff They all become sure But the SK to show change only occurred before front vowels and this is part of the the so-called first palatalization and Which was which we came which I hit on a little bit in the presentation about the six valve theory Which is that you got palatization of Vila's before front vowels as one, you know moment of Palatelization before you get the overall palatization of type B initials. Yeah Okay, yeah, that's what I just explained so so the restriction is result of the first palatization of old Chinese and And Yeah, so and and and this is basically, you know How you get the the the relative chronology, right? Yeah, so we imagined that you had something like ski So let's say key changes to chi. Well, so then you think ski probably changes to ski and then Ski changes to she as as an exact parallel of the change that we also saw saw of ste changing to s Yeah, and I'll just actually I feel obliged to say because I'm a tibetologist these sound changes of shuh to shuh and star to Or sir to sir happened in old to them like or are like Philologically attested to have happened in early old to bed and so on so their sound changes that feel, you know, very dear to my heart okay now aspiration after Initial s shih sheng series mix home or organic initials of different manner types. So it is not possible to distinguish Aspirates on the base, you know aft like it's Let's put it this way sp and sph, you know are neutralized in middle Chinese because both of them turn into s. Yeah, if you like, yeah so So back strings to guard do reconstruct these differences, but on the basis of aspiration in min or other dialects So that's so that's just basically an answer to if if you were wondering to yourself How can you know whether these these things were were aspirated or not because it's neutralized in middle Chinese After a pre-initial s that's the answer is is you look at things other than shih sheng series So here we have as tea goes to shuh. So you see, you know a nice dental You know dentals and pals actually this this answers This is an example. It came up very end of yesterday. Are there shih sheng series that mix? Palatels and dentals that argue for the sound change of dentals to palatals in Tai B. Well, here's an example, but it's also an example of Shuh initial words intruding into a dental shih sheng series. So is evidence for sth goes to shuh change And here's You know, I just I've discussed I presented these changes already now. I'm giving you the evidence, right? That's what's happening here. So here's a velar series and you notice one with high front vowel and evidence of for scuff because there's a Shuh that is intruding into it Yeah, and then I Will just mention that back string cigar think that in type a syllables scuh changes to cuh rather than to shuh But they don't use shih sheng evidence for that. So I'm not going to mention it now and by implication They would say that scuh develops into cuh also in Tai B syllables You know when not in front of high front vowels, but they don't explicitly say that as far as I can tell Okay, so now with aspirated k And they propose the aspiration Because of aspirate pronunciations such as actually including in mandarin in in guanzhou Which point to a middle chinese reading With an with an aspirate palatal But the but the actual middle chinese reading is With an s, right? Okay Now tight pre-initials as an origin of middle chinese z and you'll remember yesterday when I presented the The simplex initials I said we can get rid of the z because it has so many origins Well now is where we're going to see those origins of z They all involve pre-initial s. Okay, so here we go before voiced uvular, so this is a A uvular series Why is it a uvular series just to kind of you know, I don't repeat things so you get used to them? Well, because you see contact between yaw initial and a velar So it has to be a uvular series and we reconstruct the yaw to uh to a voiced uvular And then we have a z that you know that intrudes in this Series that we think is a uvular So why not reconstruct it as an s before a voiced uvular? And then you can understand the uh the voicing assimilation As the reason that it changes into a z Bactionary cigar also reconstruct sd and smt as sources of z But not on the basis of sheshen evidence. Okay, and then we also have you know, uh s Little g r changes to z r Uh in this series And uh now, you know, we go from origins of z to origins of zh And they're very parallel to the origins of shah that we saw so Here is a series that is clearly velar Because it it mixes uh You know jh in in in type b and dh in type a And then it has a zh initial. So let's you know, let's uh propose that it comes from sg And uh in general, uh, they believe that sg developed into g But uh their evidence for this Does not come from sheshen series. So again very parallel to the sk situation Which is that this sg goes to zh would only have happened before high front valves in the because of the first parallelization Okay, and now Tight pre initial s as one of the origins of sra So bactionary cigar, uh maintained that a tight pre initial s before q r gave rise to sra And here's uh evidence for that. So we have a glottal Uh initial which might come from a uh From a uvular And we have contact with sra So they they let's say this is the kind of problem That motivates them, um Reconstructing, uh This sound change and actually maybe this is a good one in terms of uh, you know shusler I mean, I don't know about what shusler would say about this particular case But he would look at something like this and say like like really, um, it maybe I don't know maybe maybe these aren't a sheshen series or maybe there's you know, this is the kind of place Why I think he would be a little bit, uh Suspicious in terms of well, it's not Prima fascia totally obvious that that a sra would come from a scura uh But if you want to make The sheshen hypothesis work on this sheshen series. Well backs from cigar have managed to do that.  So this is, um Pre-initial s As one of the origins of tsah. So backs from cigar Take tsah as a reflex of a voiceless resonant Prefixed with s if there is any evidence of connections to words that are otherwise known to have resonant initials Whether voiced or voiceless So here's an example S before voiceless n in type A syllables they think changes into tsah And here's the reason why It's uh because of uh, these two words, uh, and you see why I've given the, um The, um Pre uh chin orthographic forms because the the the modern forms of characters doesn't make it obvious that these are related So the second one means person and the first one means a thousand. I think if I if I'm wrong about that, uh, someone told me um So, you know, they were written very very similar in in, uh, right back to oracle bone inscriptions So they think well, they must have been similar then, right? And they don't cite uh station evidence for the same change in type b syllables But they do reconstruct, uh, the change in some words. So in particular this, um, this word, uh twice And I don't they don't quite spell it out But I think it's pretty clear that what they're thinking is that uh, the word twice is related to the word two Yeah, so it's a etymological speculation. Uh, and, um, and that this sound change Would give you the machinery to link those two words.   Uh, and then onto this one Uh, uh Which I think I've mentioned already that s q h changes to suh or tsuh Depending on dialect I include this here. It's not exactly xie sheng evidence, but it's pretty similar because two readings of the same character Right. So this character means slipper or shu and, uh, it has two readings one with, uh, uh, uh, a tsuh initial and one with a Tsuh initial. So I would say generally speaking, I don't think they articulate it as a principle, but it makes sense When there are two readings of the same character in the same meaning, that's kind of, uh, pretty good indication of of, uh, let's say a dialect Split and then, uh, borrowing into the same, um let's say standard, uh That gets represented in the guanyun okay So it's not clear to me on what grounds they, uh, reconstruct a uvular in this word kind of, uh per se So it appears to be because, uh The the the Because of this loan into pro-mian, which has a vela fricative initial Uh, yeah, so it so I think the presumption is that this word shares the same root Uh Yeah, I won't I this I don't want to get sort of drawn into these details But they're in the presentation if you want to look at them later Um, but they do show kind of that, um The level of sophistication, I think and I mean that in a good way, uh in the 2014 book, which is, you know, you look at, uh this intricate interrelationship between, uh, borrowings into unrelated languages, uh, and, um Sheshaeng series and etymological speculation okay, so now just, uh Sticking with uh, well, yeah, I'll try to get let's try to get through the the s initials so They propose, um Both sra and sra as two sources of sra in middle chinese Here's, uh, some sheshaeng evidence Uh, a character that starts with sra having contact with the character that starts with sra um in type a syllables, uh Instead as we saw earlier, um, they have sra developed into tsa And then here's the other source of tsa, uh, which you get from, uh, this case of a character with two different readings But I would say that I'm a little skeptical here because if the s prefix which you see in the first of the two readings in their system Is morphological is a morphological aspect one would expect it to somehow contribute to the meaning And And uh, and it doesn't the two readings, you know referred to the same meaning. Okay Uh, oh, yes, so we're almost done with the s is so so we get s as a source of the so So so in the first of these bullet points, you see sheshaeng evidence. So you see a contact between piang and Uh Zhang ziang So they think well, uh, you know, the the the second character must somehow have a labial in it because uh, Otherwise they wouldn't be the same sheshaeng series. So they reconstruct that back to uh, sb And then uh, this is you know, kind of, uh Not technically a sheshaeng series, but exactly that sort of rebus principle I was talking about which is this one character Uh In early sources Splits into two characters to distinguish two different meanings. It meant nose and self So the reading meaning nose is with a b initial and the reading meaning Self is with the z initial. So it's it's very similar and they take it back to an sb cluster So now that's basically it for uh, a pre-initial s is based on, you know, mostly sheshaeng evidence uh, and I'll just sort of, uh You know wrap up that section and I have a concern because, um I don't see much sort of elegance in this Uh in these proposals. Yeah, so so tsa tsa tsa you might expect them to have similar sources in in pre-initial s, but they don't Uh, and I mean, maybe this isn't a big consideration But I think it points to the fact that what's missing from the 2014 book which was in the tooth in the 1999 sorry the 1992 book is really ordered sound changes like Uh, we let's move away. This is sort of, you know, I don't know a proposal if you like as a discipline We should move away from this sort of ad hoc Uh proposing sound changes to fix particular sheshaeng series Uh and say no, we need we need to come up with a coherent story of how did the one language development the other one through ordered sound changes And I don't see that that is very easy and actually, you know at one point I sort of intended to do that in my book and it what it turned out to be it would have delayed the book by You know, uh a few more years. So I decided not to uh, and yeah, so that's a uh, that's one sort of reservation and then also, uh You know, I've been pointing out gaps. So let's look at the distribution of pre-initial s. Well, we don't have, you know spa spa ska But we do have zba and and ska in type b syllables. So it just seems very like You know Weird distribution. Now, I think what back to Mr. Garwood say is well these clusters probably existed and we just haven't figured out what uh Evidence to look for to reconstruct them Or uh, they were lost without a trace things can be lost without a trace But I think both of those stories of where they lost without a trace or what evidence should we be looking for to reconstruct them Would be would sort of be natural consequences of Of an ordered list of sound changes as part of our theory of olcanny's uh reconstruction okay, um Oh, and then yeah, and then as mentioned this is just just there's more, um kind of Objections I have to the distribution of the s So it's clear that much more work remains to be done on old chinese phonotactics I think that there are these things like also, you know, having a first person pronoun that starts with a velar nasal happens in sino-tibetan and in, um in, uh In uh, what language family is kasi and um in uh, uh, austro asiatic, uh and Yeah, um, and and I don't know I My inclination is to say these are these are sort of, um, that there are materialist explanations for these things somehow in terms of, uh, of, um, you know, um Like I don't know and human biology and communication needs. Yeah, uh that are also things like, um Actually one I've been thinking a lot about recently is is it a coincidence or is it a borrowing that? That uh, uh, indoeuropean has a word something like quen for dog And that old chinese has a word something like quen for dog. Um But actually baxter and cigar reconstruct that that not with an n but with an r So that you get something like core as um as dog and then I sort of think well it could be a coincidence because Uh, because you know having a word for dog like curl or you know Is is not so surprising I wouldn't I wouldn't go that far Because the the use of a second character to represent loose pre initials is is not at all systematic in old Chinese and I would again, uh sort of compare to um sumerian where sumerian had uh Like actually it's a very interesting thing, which I think is is is a very good comparison Maybe some of you know more more about sumerian than I do but the earliest Stages of sumerian have the worst evidence for prefixes Uh, and then the as the prefixes actually became Unproductive or as no one knew sumerian and had to learn it as a second language The the writing of the the prefixes becomes more systematic And I think that has a natural explanation, which is actually, um That when the prefixes were totally productive You didn't have to write them, you know, you could just say the kind of uh overall Syllables and people would know the the necessary grammatical interpretation and apply the necessary prefixes for that grammatical interpretation, but the the the less you could rely on people to um To actually Productively use this morphology Or or to have command of it the more you had to write it explicitly And I think actually in in a sense the the problem for you know a whole old Chinese Is that we have no akkadian, you know, there was no there was never a moment where a huge body of of foreign speakers Needed to learn old Chinese when it still had pre-initials and if that had been the case I think we would have much stronger evidence, but I I think kind of I mean you can almost think like as a thought experiment What would have happened if the sumerians lived until today? Well, they might well have Ended up with a kind of highly analytic, uh, you know tonal language And the philological evidence for those prefixes would be extremely scant Because the occasion never would have arisen naturally to write them down. They just You know, uh, yeah, anyhow, that's my sense Which is to say the preservation of those two character writings is really specific to this For the reasons that I uh, I said we will get to is there shesheng evidence for loose Pre-initials, uh, I think so, uh, but it's later in this presentation This really doesn't bother me. I mean, maybe it's because I'm a tipatologist, but uh, I think that having you know, uh You know sp Like like I don't know s m t are Yeah, like having loads of initial clusters, but only one glide it doesn't bother me. I mean, I maybe should Oh, yeah, so so I have, uh Self-consciously not said anything about Morphological structure, you know, because I think shesheng series as evidence don't point to that So I think that yeah, you can you can understand that that actually all pre-initials. That's what backsters Sorry, that's what cigars 99 the nine theory was that all pre-initials are morphological affix all roots have a kind of c optional r vowel c But it's clear that in Certain cases actually I would point to elbow as an example, which is now they reconstruct elbow is something like the crew and I think there's very good reasons for Reconstructing elbow that way, but they don't have any theory about the morphological function of the toe Yeah, so so I think that yeah, this is what this is exactly the sort of thing. I was explaining which is that like Uh, the the current version of the pre-initial theory passed through a phase Where where morphological structure of the root was the primary consideration And and I think that was very helpful for them, but it's not clear how much they're sticking to that as an idea at the moment Let's say this is actually gets to the the controversy about the the pre-initial s that I that I referred to sort of at the beginning where Me Too Lin in particular reconstructs an s Where Baxter and cigar reconstruct voiceless resonance so, um Baxter and cigar Sort of it's not worth rehearsing that whole discussion But I would say the problem that me Too Lin has is Explaining the evidence that they explain with Pre-initial s. I don't remember whether he has an alternative theory for that But what your point is is that like, you know, uh, they're clearly our cases and we saw some with like person and thousand Where there's variation Initiation series or you know word family so-called Uh between voiced resonance and voiceless resonance So Baxter and cigar recognize that problem and say Someone else can deal with that later maybe Probably these voiceless Resonance did start as some sort of constant cluster, but you know, they think at those at the level of at the synchronic level They're interested in reconstructing Uh, all chinese had You know, let's say n voiceless n s n and s voiceless n Yeah, I yeah, exactly. Yeah, if you like at at at You know at whatever old chinese was yeah Which is let's say In their approach as early as possible based on entirely chinese data And I think they're very good about that much more so I think kind of they go a little too far Much more so than let's say pang pang wu yun or jang jang shang fun baxter and cigar really feel like you cannot use comparative data When you're working out old chinese Um, uh comparative data to say to ben and vermice