This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread? That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire.com where today We are talking about the return of major league baseball coming up later this month with Nick Costos of you better You bet breaking down his favorite bets for the futures market as MLB gets set to return My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire.com joined here as always by Ed Fang You can find his work over at the powerank.com Ed It is July 1st today when we are recording which means baseball is coming back this month MLS coming back one week from today NBA coming back at the end of this month. It's a good month to be a sports fan Once again, how you doing? I'm doing pretty good. Yeah, I'm definitely looking forward to all those sports especially as the Bundesliga just ended and Like I mentioned on the show, I'm not as much of a fan of English soccer as the rest of the world seems to be So I'm definitely I mean particularly Looking forward to the NBA coming back seeing how these players adapt. I thought it was really interesting this morning I mean, I think there's been a lot of talk about how the how is the NBA going to start? The the cases in Florida are spiking right near where they're trying to play What is the league going to do and Adam Silver said today is like well, you know We we're gonna take all precautions But I thought what was interesting is that he did not he did not have like a predetermined number of cases for him to shut down the rest of the season and I thought that was interesting because well, don't don't you really want that number now? I mean you want that number you want to make that decision ahead of time and not make kind of an emotional decision later when you know, maybe you're kind of You're getting a run of cases on teams and try to figure that out. So The NBA is a pretty thoughtful league. I think they will do the right thing I just think it's interesting that they don't have like a number and I don't think any of these leagues Right have a number and I think that if you are to put faith in any league to be mindful of these things coming back It's probably the NBA because you've heard Adam Silver talk at Sloan before I assume I was at a talk that he gave once where they talked about how They look at where league pass viewership changes to know when they need to change the game And that led to some changes with timeouts late and haves and stuff like that like they are an analytical organization And I guess that made me also be a bit surprised. They didn't necessarily have a number But it also gives me a level of confidence that if they get to a situation where Things are getting out of hand. I guess I have faith that the NBA will do the right thing I mean we can question this whole this whole plan to begin with maybe it's not the right thing Anyway, but I think if it gets to a point where things are getting out of hand I feel like if I'm going to give the benefit of the doubt to anyone It would be basketball over the over the NFL major league baseball Like at least I feel like they've earned more of a benefit of the doubt than other sports at least Yeah, for sure. And and we've seen Anthony Fauci talk about how, you know, these leagues need to quarantine the entire league Which is obviously more possible in basketball than it is in football Where there's there's probably just too many people to do that Um, but still, you know, like, I mean, there's a lot of places they could have picked to go play They they managed to pick one of the hotbeds of new covid cases Which, you know, I mean, you have no idea. I mean, it's just that's just pure bad luck um from when they planned us so But yeah, I mean, but on the plus side, I mean, I think they are going to start the season Uh, hopefully they will finish out the playoffs and uh, hopefully it'll be great We're going to talk about the NBA with nick costos once again We can find nick on twitter at the costos. He is a host on you better you bet on radio.com We're going to go through a bevy of topics with nick. We're talking mlb How the 60 game schedule impacts the futures market from a betting perspective his willingness to enter said futures market We're going to talk about the NBA How he's viewing things as they come back from the covid 19 layoff and of course Get some nfl talk in there with cam newton signing with the new england patriots as well And ed will talk about that in covering the future in just a bit But quick reminder once again to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We are an apple podcast spotify stitcher the google play store i heart radio you name it You can find this there make sure you are subscribed if you like what you hear from ed me or nick Make sure you leave a rating and review as well now before we get to nick We have to go back to last week. We had collin davion to preview the travelers championship ed talked some soccer I talked nascar. Let's go back through all those before we talk to nick Covering the past Last week you're uncovering the spread we had collin davion to chat about the travelers championship and talk about his process for betting on golf make sure you follow collin on twitter at adj baseline Collin mentioned four guys Uh, he was thinking to bet for outrides for the travelers championship He had zander schoffelade at 25 to 1 and victor hoven at 38 to 1 collin moracala at 39 to 1 and scottie schaeffler at 75 to 1 It was a pretty bloody week all around where there was a lot of there were a lot of popular golfers who missed the cut Um, and it was a pretty volatile event for sure But did get victor hovland, uh, he was tops in that group finished 11th zander schoffelade 20th moracala and schaeffler both missed the cut But they were all 25 or 1 to longer Collin had mentioned how he wanted to go for longer shots in kind of a weird event dustin johnson won so, uh, definitely an interesting event and uh, dj surging once again after a rough couple of months But good to see him getting back in the swing of things and i'd still check out collin's discussion because I thought the Discussions around judging current form are growing pertinent for a long time evergreen content there So make sure you check that one out and a big thank you to collin once again add on covering the future You would talk about wanting to buy into southampton and they had two games after that discussion First one against arsenal on thursday southampton was plus 160 They fell in that one uh two nil but then on sunday southampton was facing wattford and southampton was plus 210 to win that game wattford was plus 140 so underdogs there, but southampton came through for you They got the win three to one so a loss to arsenal, but a big win as an underdog on sunday It seems like the numbers did play out pretty well there for southampton Yeah, you know, I mean i saw a little bit of the the arsenal match and they did not look good Not only they lose uh two nothing, but expected goals. It was 2.7 for arsenal to 0.8 for southampton, but uh, definitely did get the the win over the weekend You know, my numbers had about 42 for them to win that so Again, something my numbers saw and then uh, definitely leaned on the soccer knowledge of ted knudson who was on the show a couple weeks ago So, um, you know big part of my talking about those games was him. So definitely want to mention that Yeah, absolutely. Uh, ted we had had on a couple weeks ago find him on twitter at mixed nut mixed nuts k and uts Uh, your epl numbers are up on the power rank as well, correct? They are the power rank dot com slash predictions. Uh, well, uh, yeah, I'll get soon Actually, by the time this is up, I'll I'll have numbers for next week's games. So there's a couple tomorrow big, uh Big man city liverpool match and then uh, they'll start again on saturday Perfect. So check those out at the power rank dot com. I had discussed a couple of bets I liked uh for pokono specifically in the saturday race Those two drivers ryan blaney who was 13 one at the time and tyler retic who was 75 to 1 Blaney had a pretty fast car in both the races but pokono is a strategy heavy track and Blaney did not hit the strategy in either race on saturday He was third in the opening stage. He was fourth in the second one But got off schedule at the pit stops finished 12th there, uh retic was driving a Chevy and That entire manufacturer group was terrible. So, uh, didn't show a ton of life. He had issues both those days I feel better about the blaney bet than the retic one even though retic was 75 to 1 Blaney did not hit however We'll be talking about him later on in this podcast because I'm just going to keep on doubling down on ryan blaney until he really gives me a reason not to We'll talk more about ryan blaney and nascar in covering the future today But first we got to get to nick costos and a quick reminder that vandal sportsbook is giving you a chance to get in on the action Risk-free create a vandal sportsbook account today and place your first bet If you lose you will receive a refund of up to 500 dollars in site credit It is that easy for more details. Is it sportsbook dot vandal dot com offer valid for new users only must be 21 years old gambling problem Call 1 800 gambler. Let's bring on nick costos now of you better you bet Make sure you check out you better you bet on radio dot com and follow nick on twitter at the costos kos Tos we're talking mlb's return to play a little bit of mda and of course can to the patriots right now with nick costos Covering the present Let's bring nick costos back into covering the spread nick. It's been a bit I think we'll ask talk to you during the nfl playoffs and a couple of things have happened since then So how you doing today? Jim and ed. Great to be on with you guys Um being on your show kind of indicates to me that we've got at least a little bit of normalcy back in our lives So great to be on the show. I feel like everybody else just trying to Stay sane during this pandemic. Um, I feel like the first couple weeks were kind of I was kind of like cloaked In existential dread and as time has gone on you realize not the end of the world life's going to continue to go on God willing we get a vaccine sooner rather than later But I mean I guess all things considered it really could be a lot worse loved ones happy and healthy Hopefully it stays that way. So hopefully the same for you guys and all the listeners as well Yeah, the priorities there sound right, which is always a good thing. Uh, but what did you do during? The the months where we had no sports because it was a legitimate two months before Even nascar and ufc came back. So What did you do to occupy your time? Because you better you bet was off during part of that time too Yeah, actually it was really cool because we actually got a great opportunity on the show where um We were they took you better you bet and simulcast that and all like the intercom stations around the country And uh ross tucker and I did like a countdown to the nfl draft for about two and a half weeks Which like got us in front of a new audience Which was which was really cool And then we had when we had some time off which at the time like before it happened I was like pretty bummed about it But as I was kind of like I actually kind of enjoyed the the time away from from everything Um what I missed was though and really I think the big thing for me was and I've been on like I've done a number of podcasts and everyone asked everyone asked this question And I kind of give the same answer where like I love to gamble on sports And that's obviously where like I draw my income from talking about gambling on sports But at the heart of it like me as a human being I'm a sports fan like I've been watching sports I'm 30 turn 37 last month. I've been watching sports since 1990 like that was the first year I watched giants won the Super Bowl first year I ever watched which was really great So for me it was like less like did I miss gambling on sports? Like I did like I missed the sweat and then uh when I had justin rose uh to win the colonial And he missed that birdie putt on 18 to get into the playoff I was like well, maybe I didn't really miss the sweat so much While I did miss gambling like I just Man like I just miss watching just watching just watching sports because it occupies so much of my time Like I don't really watch a ton of scripted television. I don't really like I'm not a big movie guy I I watch sports. So it was kind of like what do I do with my time? Well, I moved during I would say like if you were to construct a list of worst times to move I would say in the middle of a global pandemic would be towards the top of the list So moved not only moved but moved in with my girlfriend first time I've ever lived with a girl And that that presents its own unique challenges, of course So kind of been dealing with that and then on the more like vanity selfish side. I've been I've been running like outside I've run like three miles a day now. So I've gotten back into pretty good shape and uh, you know I don't know if I can say this on the podcast But you know, maybe like you know, he's smoking weed and playing video games trying past the time So that's really that's really what it was until golf came back and ufc Obviously NASCAR and now our soccer as well and god willing We will get now that we're in july later this month baseball hockey in the NBA Yeah, I mean, it's it's it's tough to find hobbies to do so. I'm glad you found something But I'm also curious because you were talking about the the vanity aspect I don't think hair counts as vanity, but like there is an upkeep perspective and you value hair It seems like at least it seems like very value very much. Yeah What was it like for you not to be able to go to a barber for three months? It was it really like well, it was kind of like I feel like The first like month or so of quarantine. It was really like it was I don't know I don't want to speak for everyone, but it was I was like very proud of staying at home at that point in time Or it's like this is and I'm not this is not politicizing anything or saying like people should feel differently about anything or whatever But like that first like month plus. I was very like team We don't know what the deal with all what this virus is. We don't know how bad this is going to be There's so much and I still think to a degree. There's a lot unknown about but I feel like we can all agree Like we feel better about stuff now that we did like two three months ago Like the world's not going to end and like I kind of felt like oh my god Is the world going to end so at that point it was kind of like I was like aggressively team stay inside Don't go anywhere and you know, I I kind of like didn't really care for a while like I actually I was gonna move in with my girl on I think April or May 1st We pushed it back a couple months that I ended up because I was living by myself at the time when all of this first went down I actually went to her family's house where she lived and I stayed with her family for like a month and like None of us were going to get like and I was with my girl And it's not like I was like trying like to go out and like date or anything So for a while it was okay, and then like it's time dragged on. I was like, you know Like I like to have my hair look a certain way. I get my haircut once a week I'm extremely vain. I'm extremely anal about it and it was sucked for a while and now that like Things are open, you know, I had maybe been doing stuff a little Black market haircuts a little bit as I wore on a little bit But yeah, it was it was a little difficult But now I'm back to my once a week routine and feeling pretty good about it And uh, yes, that stuff does matter a lot to me probably more than I'd be willing to admit Well, Nick, you are you are a video personality. So you do need to make that work and uh And I got you giving me too much credit here. I was like this before I ever did video. So just just to be fair Oh, well, but but now it's part of your work. So and you know, you're back with you better. You bet We're doing some video today with this. So I think you're you're just fine that Nick we brought you on to talk some baseball and basketball And the unique aspect of this mob season is that it's going to be a 60 game season How does that impact your philosophy on the the futures markets? Well, I mean, I I think the we you can look no further than the kind of the way world series prices have changed, right? And uh, I I think that given and this is not like a you know, uh A an earth shattering take by me. Um, or splitting the atom or anything like that but There is going to be so much more variance in a 60 game regular season Then you will see in 162 game season like math and logic kind of dictate that that that's going to be the case In common sense, right that there is going to be a ton more variance and look no further than what the Washington Nationals You know last year's world series champion And it's a stat that's going to be beaten to death over the course of the next couple weeks until baseball comes back 60 game start last year of 27 and 33 now Look, maybe you could say well if you knew it was a 60 game season Maybe davie martinez manages a little differently and maybe it doesn't turn out like that But I think we're going to see here where there are a lot of teams that I think people assume Will make the post season and we can run down the list We it's the usual suspects atop the odds board, right? I think and I don't know if you guys agree or disagree and like I would consider both of you guys to be like Probably sharper gamblers than I am like i'm more of like entertainment hosts who also gambles But from my perspective here like it would not surprise me in the least If at least one of those teams towards the top of the odds board Misses the playoffs and conversely like if you take a team that's maybe got like The tools to put together like a good 60 game run But maybe over the course of 160 new games will peter out for whatever the reason It's not outside the run low possibility that a team like that could get into the post season So i'm a yankees fan. I'm from new york. I love my yankees I'm not a frontrunner also like you know the giants and nix, you know That I think nix kind of disqualifies me from all front running status here I want my yankees to win the world series and in a normal year I'd probably be a homer and bet on my yankees to win the world series But in a year like this like i'm not russian to bet on the yankees and the dodgers like coronavirus has kind of changed the game here in so many different ways like what happens if Garrett Cole gets coronavirus like in the middle of the post season, right? And he's the guy that the yankees paid 300 million dollars to and all of a sudden He's out for that series and you got to have you know a seven game series against You know the hated houston ash or so the indians a team that i'm really high on or whatever it may be where I almost don't think that you can go to the top of the odds board this year with confidence Like you may have done in past years and by past years I mean every other year where there was not a global pandemic Which was all of them dating back to the spanish flu in 1918 i guess right Yeah So are you willing to bet futures markets in general knowing how high variance there is How high variance it's going to be this season or are you trying to exploit? You know teams like you said that maybe a bit more volatile that could put together a 60 game stretch Are you just kind of staying away or are you still willing to bite on some of those more volatile teams? I'm just going to be real with you guys and i've actually it's been interesting because it's kind of been like Social experiments almost on you better you bet um And you know jim you come on the show and ed's obviously been on the show too where you know I'm kind of asking guys like where are you at with the futures market? And I feel like we've all got thoughts right like I have thoughts on teams that I like in the nfl Like i'm high on tom brady and the tamba bay buck and you're surprised like I love the cowboys this year in the uh In the nfl but like i'm not really rushing to the window to place futures wagers on the national football league Or really major league baseball or the or the mba right now and the reason for that is like We don't know how any of this is going to look like how can you bet a future on the national football league? Are there going to be fans in the stadiums? Are they going to play a full a full 16 game season? Is there going to be any training camp? I think the pre-season is going to get cut. Will there be any pre-season games? Like none of us have any idea how this is going to look like we just we just don't know so I've got thoughts on the mba. I've got a lot of thoughts on major league baseball I've got thoughts on the national football league but I'm not rushing into the futures market and it's not because I don't want to It's because I don't feel like it's like a prudent like like expenditure of my money right now And what I found here and i'm not going to speak for everyone and blanket absolutes here But I feel like most of the cappers that we've had on pro-betters or people that do sports betting stuff in the media like me I feel like Most of them kind of feel the same way right now and it's unfortunate because we all have thoughts But I don't think that most of us are really rushing to put our money down right now just because of all the unknown So let's tap into those thoughts then uh, maybe not a team you're going to bet But are there teams in general you're looking at as being interested in in the world series market for 2020? Oh, yeah, um, I love the Cincinnati Reds And I love the reds kind of before the pandemic and for a lot of reason I'm sure like you guys probably share that I feel like everyone was kind of on the Cincinnati Reds Especially now that we're going to have the designated hitter in the national league I think obviously helps the reds with a top heavy rotation. I really like the Cleveland Indians more so than I like the twins I like the Indians now more post-pandemic than I did pre-pandemic and and here's the reason why I kind of really like the Indians And I like the Phillies as well and I'll give a reason why I like the Phillies after I talk about the Indians here where Normally in major league baseball and I think this is kind of like the prevailing thought The manager doesn't really matter in major league baseball to a great degree Like until we get to the postseason it's like why I kill Dave Roberts every October because the Dodgers have this stacked lineup and rotation And then they get to the world series or the nlds or wherever they're going to choke this year And Dave Roberts turns into robo manager and he's going to start making moves that don't make any sense because you know That's what the numbers tell him to do and he always ends up screwing it up. So In a 60 game scenario where each game is heavily more magnified I think the importance of the manager in major league baseball is going to matter more this year than it ever has before So I look at a team like the indians with a great manager like terry francona And I think that's like a major boon in their favor to have a guy like terry francona And I like and I like the front of their rotation as well Like even with cori cluber now in Texas like I love clevenger. We like beaver. We like plezac We like harasco. We like some of these pictures here the philadelphia philies are an interesting team and like If our yedda can be even like halfway decent in that as the third starter for that team I like their rotation. I think that they've got starters. They can potentially bump back into the bullpen I had grown tired of joe gerardi as yankees manager As a yankees fan, but like it did one of world series got to the playoffs in most years And I have a feeling that price harbors is going to put together a monster 60 game campaign coming off You know, what was a disappointing year for him last year? So I like the philies I think the blue jays are probably worth a look with that unbelievable lineup with the variance of a 60 game season Kind of the same thing with the san diego ponderis So these are all teams that i'm looking to target, you know in that in that mid range It's not that I don't think teams like the yankees or dodgers can't win the world series But it i'm less willing to bet on them now than I would have been in the past Excellent, let's go a little bit over to the player side of things. Are there any futures there? You know for for mvp That you are looking at Yeah, I like price harper a lot In the national league to win mvp and I acknowledge that this is a bit narratively And you know, that's kind of been kind of like one of my one of my schnicks here. It's a lot of narrative based stuff um, I just have a feeling and Generally, I think when you bet on things just on feeling that generally goes pretty poorly, but eff it I'm gonna do it anyway where he was bad last year bad by his standards I think like in normal standards I think he was okay And I know that was like a big topic last week was brice bad last year by his standards I think that's fair to say it is an absolutely stacked stacked lineup that the fillies are putting together You know, they're not going to be playing games in cold weather Obviously now that the season's starting later on in the summer and I just think he's going to be on fire, man And I love that lineup I love a lot of the pieces around them like I love the addition of dd gregarious there hitting in that band box and Yo realm uto is obviously fantastic and I love race huskens And I think he's got a lot of support around him in the lineup So maybe a bit narrative-y But I I love me some brice harper friend lmvp and I like the fillies to go over their win total as well Well, and you think about brice harper too and you think you're thinking about archetypes of players who can just go nuts A 60 game span for brice harper That can be really freaking good I think that you're taking the right approach there where you want to target players Who can go ballistic over a 60 game sample and brice harper has done that over 150 game sample But we've seen it even higher over 60 games So I think that that archetype of player makes a lot of sense and harper again specifically We know he can do that for sure too, and I think here's what's kind of scary about that though Conversely, and it's what makes this so volatile like I I'm again. I'm a yankee fan I hate to keep saying that but I keep bringing out these examples But they're the ones that are nearest and dearest to my heart But we remember and I want to say and I forget which year it was So forgive me for this a quick google search would be able to find out which it was But the year that Derek Jeter started the first like month a half of the season hitting like under 100 Was on the cover of sports illustrated And I think he'd said like the slump We're even a guy like Jeter and people some people think he's overrated foolishly in my opinion But like when a guy of like that stature Like it's baseball like we we the best player struggle over the course of a long season It's a very difficult game It's like I always say that like I used to say in my single days If you go one for 10 on a night out like and you hit on you know 10 girls on the night out you go one for 10 You make the hall of fame like in baseball you only have to go three for 10 and you make the hall of fame Like it is a difficult sport and like an over the course of a season You're gonna have periods where you're really cold So I just think that like oh look I gave you the Bryce Harper pick and I feel good about it But I mean what if price hits 230 over 60 games What if my trout hits 250 over 60 games like not likely but certainly within the realm of possibility Over 162 games you eliminate a lot of that variance in 60 games. There's gonna be a lot more of it Well, and when you talk about guys like Bryce Harper and uh Derek jeter you're talking about regression to the mean right you're talking about regression to their mean behavior and um, you know We usually think about regression as like, you know coming back from an outlier performance, but in this case like We can expect Bryce Harper to be better just because of the season last year Absolutely and like again like love the lineup around him Coming off the season where he wasn't that great.  No, no, no, there's data for Bryce too. So you're good No, this is this is a math based narrative. Nick.  Well, you guys can fill in the blanks on the Pythagorean theorem or whatever the hell we're talking about My narrative here on Bryce Harper Let's shift gears here and talk about the NBA because we're now in july, nick Uh, which means the NBA is coming back this month too The schedule just came out. So any team stand out to you is being undervalued within the futures market on the NBA side of things All right, so let's talk about the NBA here. I think this kind of falls unfortunately under the same brabrile of major league baseball like I think like There are going to be people and I will probably be one of them over the course of the next month because we'll get caught up in The excitement and quite frankly, it's more fun to talk about it like this where it's almost like we are handicapping This like there's no coronavirus, right? Right. What happens? If like LeBron James gets coronavirus Is it outside the realm of possibility that we could see a team in the playoffs have to forfeit a series like I Would pay a lot of my own money for that not to happen. I don't want that to happen I want more than anything for there to be sports for many different reasons many of them selfish But like I just feel like like we can have this conversation But I feel like that's kind of the like the cloud hanging it over everything right now is What happens if blank and blank is stuff related to coronavirus? So I can be like, yeah We can have a conversation as if like it doesn't exist and we can do that right now But like that's in the back of my mind again. So that kind of makes me feel like I don't know how great I feel about like putting futures down or even having conversations like this But we have to because this is what we do. So let's do it. Um, I don't feel as good About the Milwaukee Bucks as I did pre-pandemic Because if you look at their price on the Fandals sports book and Jim you can correct me if I'm wrong I'd correct me if I'm wrong, but it's highly similar to what it was pre-pandemic. Here's the difference. Um, there's no home court advantage There there there are no fans here So I don't know how we could price the bucks the same way. Does that mean the bucks can't win the title? No But I ain't betting them at that price here. I don't feel as good about the Lakers without Avery Bradley Even like if they bring jr smith back I mean jr smith's ago kind of like we haven't seen him do anything this year Bradley's a good defensive player I think we kind of look at a team like the clippers and that's a team that I feel really good about Assuming no coronavirus and everyone plays. We love the coach. We love dock rivers and here's something else that I think we have to take into account where I think that games are probably going to be more defensive than they had been We've heard odds makers talk about this where when you're playing at home in front of the crowd and the crowd starts to get Juiced and we've seen the Warriors do this and a million other teams do it where you know Runs can snowball very quickly because you've got the adrenaline of the crowd behind you. Well There's gonna be no crowd So I think that defense is really going to play a pretty large part in how and how a lot of this works out So I would almost look to really good defensive teams and almost give defensive teams an edge here teams with great coaching An edge here. It's one of the reasons why I don't love the Philadelphia 76ers because I'm not really a Brett Brown fan Um, but then I think you could maybe make the argument like another reason why you don't like the sixers Is because they were so great at home this year, right? And now like they're not playing at home now They were a terrible team on the road So people will say, oh, well, they've got a beat and they've got Simmons and they've got to bias Harris and they've got These good players, but they can't win away from home and now like they don't have the home court advantage So I think you can maybe bang on the Philadelphia 76ers for that reason So I think there are you could go down the list in many in many different directions And I think there are many different conclusions that you can draw It's just just so much unknown But like I said, I would definitely not back the Milwaukee Bucks at this point given their given their price tag right now Yeah, sixers have some other problems in that they act like knucklehead sometimes on the court too So and that's probably not going to go away even with like like like what would you say? Like if we were to like set odds on players likelihood to get coronavirus like what would Joel and B'd be Nick please set that market somewhere If you just have to do it on your show, let me bet into that market. That would be great Yeah, I'll have to yeah, I'll I'll get taken to the cleaners because my market will not be sharp So I'm not I mean please yes Yeah, Nick, I love what you're talking about in terms of like just the different environment that they're going to play down there and how that And what you're saying about the futures market Can you also bring that to kind of the early games? Like are you expecting to bet unders because you think defense matters Or just because you know, these guys haven't shout as many basketballs lately Is there any advantage that you think you can find because of the bubble in the different circumstances? Well, I I well, I I think that that's going to be the case here Like for instance, I was actually looking at the phantals sports book And like the race for the eight seed in the NBA in the eastern conference like the brooklyn nets like might have to call like Carrie kiddles and like Keith van horn and like Jason kid and get the band back together here a little bit Because like everyone's got coronavirus and like no one's going to go play and I know that they've got Like a sizable advantage here at this point over um, oh over uh the wizards here and um and also the magic But like I you know if the nets don't have anyone playing, you know, it's going to be kind of hard to It's going to be hard to back them, right? I think the Lakers are a team that you could probably look to fade here in terms of the eight game regular season Before we hit the playoffs or what like five and a half games up on the clippers here They're going to be playing teams that have a lot to play for Um, so I think you could probably look to to go against the Lakers So I think though the regular season portion of this I feel like may provide some opportunities here just from a purely motivational standpoint here Team some teams may have something to play for some teams may not have a lot to play for so I do think that there will be opportunities early on in the right in the regular season resumption here And look forward to diving into more of those over the next couple weeks as we get closer to the relaunch And the plus of that too is you're not dependent on health as much for a single game bet versus a Futures bet so I think that that's it kind of goes with what you're saying before where maybe you don't want to risk it You know if an impactful player winds up testing positive later on before I let you go here, nick I wanted to get your thoughts on the Patriots signing cam newton obviously the big news of this week Patriots championship odds, uh, they're down to 17 to 1 at vandal sportsbook They're now minus 230 to make the playoffs again an additional playoff team this year How are you viewing the paths with where the market currently stands with cam newton now? likely the week one starter I think it's appropriate um at this point and I know that like it's kind of been like a johnny come lately deal Where people have kind of like flipped in the core for the course where everyone was anti-patriots when we assumed it was stittum And now people are pro-patriots when it's cam newton. Well, I actually Think that that's kind of fair like that's for the case given that you know Jared stittum's never done anything in the nfl and like we know bella check is the greatest of all time But I mean it's still an unknown quarterback tough to really feel good about it now If we're operating them through the assumption that cam is going to be healthy Um, I don't think there's any doubt the patriots are a playoff team and again I'll say something and relate the nfl to something I said earlier about major league baseball where There's so much unknown right entering any of these team sports in america right including football What we do know is that bella check is the greatest coach of all time And having bella check in this weird year I don't think there's any question that's gonna that that's gonna be a major advantage So I think that's a major boon in the patriot's favor is to is to have bill bella check there I think having cam newton kind of where I was going on radio when I would do podcast or I would do terrestrial radio hits And be like well look at the patriot skill position group. It's one of the worst in the national football league You know tight ends obviously a wasteland wide receiver You hope that's a new can can um can give you more than the nothing he gave you after you traded a second round Pick you hope the second-year receiver to kill harry can step up Sonya michelle obviously is hurt and like can't catch the football So I don't know how good we feel about that backfield But having cam newton kind of changes everything here And I think kind of an underrated aspect of the cam newton signing is We were I want to go back to denver when josh mcdaniels was the head coach there And draft the tim tebow in the first round And this is not meant to be a comparison between tebow and cam because cam is obviously Infinity times the player that tim tebow was in the national football league But you know mcdaniels kind of catered an offense Around tim tebow like like that was he did that that is an actual thing that happened And this is going to be a small sample size that i'm referencing here But this is the thing that happened when brady was suspended and jimmy garoppolo got hurt Um chacoby perset came in and started a couple games one of them was a nationally televised thursday And I came against the houston texans and perset had a couple long rushing touchdowns in that game on design quarterback runs And like you normally never saw that with the patriots because they had tom brady at quarterback So I actually think mcdaniels may be looking at this is like wow like I get to be a little bit of a mad scientist here Whereas with brady and it's great because he's brady and he's the greatest of all time Where you're running the same offense every year Well, now you can have a little more a couple extra wrinkles here with cam newton under center here for the patriots I am not as high on the buffalo bills as a lot of people are I'm still not sold that jo I like josh allen so I don't think josh allen sucks But i'm not sold on josh allen is being this great quarterback here We know the patriots defense is going to be pretty good Even with the losses and the interior of that offensive line is so good that I have to think That cam newton is going to have success rushing the football again assuming that he's healthy here I think the market is fairly priced right now on cam bill bellichick and the patriots Yeah, the market can be higher, but you can justify it for sure And if only every coach were as adaptable as josh mcdaniels I think the NFL would be a much better product then that is nick costos Make sure you follow him on twitter at the costos and check out you better You bet available wherever you get your podcasts and on radio.com nick appreciate the time I'm glad that sports are back so we can get back into regular flow of things and listen to you better You bet appreciate the time and we'll talk to you again soon And jim looking forward to having you on the show this week to break down some nascar appreciate both of you guys Hope you your families continue to stay safe same thing to all the listeners and you know as always I got to give my catchphrase here until we meet again on this podcast I am wishing you minimal sweats winning bets in the absolute very best of luck Thank you nick appreciate it. Thanks guys Covering the future Big thank you once again to nick costos for swinging by and breaking down Everything that we discussed a wide-ranging interview there for sure and ed nick is always an entertaining guy to talk to and maybe we can get him to Introduce his own sports book at some point in the near future That's right. I mean It's just the idea of betting on the odds of joan beat of getting covid or testing positive for covid Makes me chuckle. I mean that team in general is just uh, you got to be really frustrated If you're a sixers fan, right? Yeah, there's there's there's an infinity of talent. Um, I mean, there's there's no limit to what joan mb can do on the basketball court But uh, you know, hasn't hasn't really played like that. Um, you know, I had a flame out of playoffs last year And um, yeah, well, we'll see what they do this year I'm hoping that they can put it together because I I just like watching joel and bead like consuming him From a personality perspective like he is one of the more Loose uh, nba players. I think that's the way to put it. He's he's he seems like a fun dude So I hope he puts it together, but My brother-in-law is a sixers fan and I I can I can tell you that there is some frustration Uh, for sure when with regards to that team Let's move into covering the future here today to talk about uh, some things We are monitoring ourselves at various sports books ed You want to go back to the nfl and talk about cam newton going to the patriots because the patriots are a team We talked a lot about and this is obviously a pretty big change to their outlook So what are you seeing at the patriots now that we know cam newton will be on that roster to start the year? Yeah, I mean, I think that he really definitely raises the floor for the pat season, right? I mean they went in with the idea that they were going to start jared stittum Now they have a veteran in cam is well, you know, just the odds of one of them playing well is is much better than the If they had only one of them So, you know, we know what we're going to get with cam. He's not going to be like he was in his mvp season in 2015 But he's a solid nfl starter And you know, if he's healthy, uh, I think he's going to do a pretty good job there and and I do think he's going to be healthy Um, you know, he had the shoulder injury in 2018 Looked like he had gotten over that last year in 2019 and some of his early play and then broke the foot The foot injury looks like something that a quarterback can usually come back from As well. So I think he is going to be healthy. He definitely raises the floor Um, and you know, and and I think just if you only had jared stittum, there's a lot of uncertainty, right? Like jared stittum could have been terrible Actually, I think there's a better chance that jared stittum is great than cam newton We have a lot of data on cam newton. We know that, you know, he's he's a very good quarterback, but He's not always going to play like that mvp season So let's put some numbers behind how much better the markets think that the patriots are given this acquisition from before The patriot is the patriots were at nine wins. This was after the draft It was minus 120 on the over Now they have settled in at nine and a half wins It's minus 110 on the over and what I do at the power ink is I take NFL win totals and the price to go over and under And then I back out a rating for each team and this is, you know A predictive point spread against an average NFL team on a neutral site, which is particularly relevant in in 2020 So when you do this, um New England actually increases by about 0.7 points. So about three quarters of a point better They go from eighth to fifth. So they have a rating of about 3.2 And what this says the markets are saying like look, they're not in the same ballpark as the former main Super Bowl contenders Kansas City, Baltimore, San Francisco, New Orleans, but now they're the highest contender after them There's still a pretty big gap between, um, you know, the the top four and down to new england's about two points I really think there should be a bigger shift. Um, I think this is a good signing for new england. Um, I think I've talked about how I've been high on this team Before the draft, you know, when you look at their defense, it was excellent last year They still have all four of the corners that all graded out really well last year The past defense was amazing and that that's really, um The the the hardest position to replace in the end one of the hardest probably sorry The second hardest position to replace in the NFL behind obviously the quarterback Um, so they still have a lot of talent on that side They still have bellichick who's a great coach and probably someone who's willing to get every single edge Uh possible now they have cam newton. They have him or stood him to be the quarterback Um, I I actually think the markets probably should have moved a little bit more It seems like a point point a half would would would be appropriate Yeah, and I think that it's a really interesting discussion because When people talk about cam, I feel like he has been written off due to injuries But I think the injury discussion is a bit exaggerated because it's been impactful injuries But like it's not as if he was super injured before that he got in the car crash once and like that happened But from an NFL perspective there weren't a ton of injuries and the shoulder injury like you said like There were there was video of him throwing the ball pretty well last year We saw Andrew Luck come back from a a similar shoulder injury and play Really well in 2018 obviously things played out differently than Andrew Luck But like he played at a really high level throughout that 2018 season so I think that Cam the injury discussion may be a bit overblown and if you look at the first Six games of 2018 because bats from the shoulder injury really cropped up They had Tyler or a Taylor or Tyler Taylor Heinecke come in to throw a Hail Mary in their seventh game So it was really just six games where cam was healthy in those six games He played really well like he was putting up good numbers in that time both from an overall expected points perspective and Just as a passer. So if they get that cam Newton, I know the the the pass catchers aren't good but You give that that cam Newton with potentially a rushing ability in a A good offensive scheme and with that defense I think the ceiling on that team you talked about the floor But I think the ceiling also is really intriguing if they get that early 2018 version of cam Newton too Oh, yeah, for sure. I mean I feel like You know, let's assume that the defense is still a top five unit I mean it can't really expect them to be, you know Second best but we expect a little bit of a regression, but let's say it's a top five unit, which I think is reasonable Then the offense has to be Average to top 10 Yeah For them to be a legit contender and and be knocking on Baltimore and Kansas City's door in the playoffs And the offense could be better this year too because I mean they do lose Brady But Isaiah win the left tackle mistake games last year David Andrews their center missed the entire season Muhammad Sunoo as nick alluded to didn't come into mid year And they added a couple of tight ends in the draft as well And the keel harry was hurt the first half of the year So they had a lot of injuries on offense a lot of impactful injuries specifically to win and Andrews So there are paths to that offense getting better despite losing Brady So I think that they I think that they're very interesting I'd agree that maybe the market didn't react enough To this change with cam Newton coming in moving to my cover in the future I'm going to talk more about some NASCAR this weekend. We're going to stick with the exact same driver Ryan Blaney did not pay off last week at Pocono And Pocono Indian Indianapolis are very similar tracks. They are big. They are fast They are flat the only two tracks on the circuit that check all those boxes So if Blaney didn't work out in Pocono, you'd think I'd avoid him this week You're giving me too much credit. I'm not that smart So I am going to go back to Ryan Blaney once again this week at 11 to 1 for the big machine hand sanitizer 400 Which is a glorious name for a race Blaney is a top ranked driver in my model Straight up for this week. It is the most positively my model has ever viewed Ryan Blaney That's the dates back to the start of last year. So if we look at the drivers in Blaney's range within this model 36 drivers have had a projected finishing position within a half position either direction of Blaney Small sample 36 36 drivers They have 10 wins out of those 36 drivers 19 top 5s So a 28 win rate and a 53 top 5 rate last year Blaney had a fourth place average running position at this exact same track It is one of three straight top 10 average running positions for Blaney at this track So although he's never finished better than seventh He's had good cars and good runs and I care more about that than finishing position Blaney has already shortened from an opening of 13 to 1 So I'd grab him at 11 to 1 while you still can Because that number could continue to move and I want to buy him at 11 to 1 If you want a bit of a longer shot or if you're just bored of betting Blaney Because I've recommended him like 19 times in this podcast I think you could consider Eric Amarola at 42 to 1 Amarola will also start with in the top 12 spots. He's Not great at a lot of things but he can maintain track position decently well and Amarola has shown some upside recently He has four straight top 5 finishes and two of those came with a top 10 average running position He also had a top 10 average running position in Fontana this year and in Indianapolis last year So similar tracks Amarola has run well. The Stuart Haas racing cars always bring big speed To this track type Amarola has been cranking things up on similar tracks So I'm okay buying into him at 42 to 1 The better market for Amarola will still be for a podium finish or for a top 5 finish once those markets are available but I am still Comfortable buying into him to win at 42 to 1 that is the longest of any driver Who will start in the top 12 spots alex bowman's second longest at 35 to 1 So I am okay taking the plunge there on amarola at 42 to 1 But my favorite bet for this week once again, ryan blaney at 11 to 1 to win in indianapolis and It's been interesting for me because my model has consistently been higher on ryan blaney And it's paid off once this year in talladega but Do you ever question? You know what the model is saying when it continuously says to go to the exact same person or Does that does that come for you? I guess it could go either way I mean, it depends. I mean, that's why you kind of got to watch races and follow What's going on with the team if there's something that Excluded off with his crew or his car or whatever then then maybe you go away from it But if not, then I think you trust the process of your model speaking of joel and b trust the process And we'll go back to ryan blaney once again for this week That is all that we have for today here on covering the spread big thank you once again To nick costos make sure you give him a follow on twitter at the costos and check out you better You bet on radio.com or wherever you get your podcast ed What's going on for you over at the power bank this week? Yeah, over on my podcast the football analytics show we talked about uh soccer as in football analytics I had michael kailey on he's a soccer analytics expert. He's been doing expected goals on twitter for For forever Actually found out that He is a phd in religious studies. Wow and and not the quantitative kind Interesting. So we talked a lot about we talked about that we talked about soccer analytics and and basically how they go about collecting the data for expected goals. So it was it was pretty interesting how manual that was talked about the premier league and If you're a fan of the us men's national team, we we actually spent a lot of time talking about That team and whether you can have any hope moving forward. So so that's a football analytics show And then also uh over at the power ranks on it for my free email newsletter. Uh, you can get my full nfl Preseason rankings based on market wind totals from fan duel Just go to the power rank dot com. Alrighty power rank dot com Are the power right dot com and the football analytics show as well To check out ed's work and follow it on twitter at the power rank. I am at jim sonnis j i m s a n And yes, you can also follow the fan duel podcast network at fan duel podcast dfs podcast For pga and nascar going up uh nascar one up later today and the pga one post is already You can find that at the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed big. Thank you to calvin theobald our video producer For running the video side of things here today as always. Thank you cal And thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Hopefully all of you are staying safe and staying healthy out there And hopefully uh, you're enjoying the return to sports. Hopefully that return to sports continues We'll talk to you once again next week. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan duel podcast network


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