This off is Dr. Gretchen Schwarzie. Gretchen is assistant professor of surgery at the University of Wisconsin. She's currently funded by the Greenwall Foundation, has a K Award from University of Wisconsin, CTSA for her research on surgical buy-in. She'll be speaking today on its big surgery, pre-operative expressions of risk, responsibility, and commitment to treatment after high-risk operations. Welcome, Gretchen. Thanks, Peter. I'm sure you're as overwhelmed as I am about all the other talks today. They were just so fantastic, and I'm really honored to be invited and to be part of this. I was saying to Peter before this started, I'm pretty sure this is my block time at the McLean Center, because I'm always in the last session on Saturday. But my talk today actually starts, the story of my research talk today actually starts here at the McLean Center when about five years ago, I was talking on some very different surgical topic, and at the end of my talk, Rochelle Bernaki, who I think many of you know, stood up and said, Gretchen, why is it that surgeons have such a hard time withdrawing life-supporting treatments on their post-operative patients? Is it just because they're so worried about their mortality statistics, or is there something else to it? And at the time, I really didn't have much of an answer to her, and I said, you know, Rochelle, my hunch is that it's something a little bit more than mortality statistics, but I just don't know what it is. And so I set off trying to answer Rochelle's question after leaving this meeting. And what it came up with after our first endeavor is this issue of surgical buy-in. So, and I'll show the data that supports surgical buy-in, but I wanna just briefly describe what it is so that I can describe our newest project. So surgical buy-in is something that we call an informal contract, formed between the surgeon and the patient, in which the patient not only consents to the operation to be performed, but commits to the post-operative surgical care anticipated by the surgeon. And this was something we defined after talking to surgeons, both in a qualitative study and in a quantitative study that we were able to validate with a large national sample of surgeons. And here's the data from our qualitative study. Surgeons talked about how before a big operation, it was important to establish the patient's commitment to post-operative treatment, that this was actually agreed upon as part of the process of getting to do the operation. So one surgeon said, during a big operation, surgeons feel that there is a commitment made by both the patient and the surgeon to get through the operation as well as all of the post-operative issues that come up. Surgeons talked about negotiating about post-operative life-supporting treatments or contracting for a level or amount of time of care afterwards. And they reported that they were quite surprised if post-operative treatments were refused. So we went on to do a large national survey of surgeons sampling almost 1,000 cardiothoracic, vascular and neurosurgeons. And the reason we chose this group is because we wanted to be sure to sample people who routinely took care of patients who are gonna have post-operative intensive care. And one of the things we did within our survey was to embed a vignette. And the vignette was about a 75-year-old woman who had had an operation. And after the operation suffered a severe left hemipiridic stroke. In addition to this she had a post-operative pneumonia for which she was intubated twice. So intubated, extubated and re-intubated. And on post-operative day seven the patient says to the surgeon, I've had enough, I can't do this anymore.  And we asked the surgeons, what would you do? Well, only 40% of surgeons said that they would honor the patient's choice to withdraw life-supporting treatments at that time. And if you look here at this slide their reasons for doing this were difficult to pin down. Many of them were optimistic or felt that the patient didn't understand the future quality of life she would be able to have. But all of them, whether they chose to honor the patient's preferences to withdraw life-supporting treatment or decided to delay or refuse to honor this request said that the reason for doing so depended entirely on their preoperative conversation with the patient or the family. And you can see 97% of surgeons who withdrew said this was dependent on their preoperative conversation and 94% who favored not withdrawing also said that this was dependent on their preoperative conversation. So this left us with a question about, well, what's happening in these preoperative conversations? How do surgeons get buy-in? And then we proceeded with our current study. And the objective of this current study was to assess whether surgeons ask patients to buy-in to postoperative life-supporting treatments in the preoperative setting. And to do this, we did another qualitative study. And this time we did a multi-site study in Toronto, Boston, and Madison, Wisconsin. We had three surgeons at each site, surgeons who we knew regularly treated patients who would require postoperative intensive care, like cardiac surgeons, thoracic surgeons, vascular surgeons, neurosurgeons, and surgical oncologists. We also purposely sampled surgeons who were reported by peers to be good communicators, thinking that if anybody was gonna ask patients to buy-in, it was the surgeons who were good communicators. They would talk to the patients before surgery about what they were doing. We recorded between three to seven conversations per surgeon, and our coders had extensive experience with postoperative ICU patients, including a postoperative critical care nurse and a medicine resident who is going into critical care. And we used inductive content analysis. So what do surgeons say to patients prior to high-risk operations? Oh, sorry, this is the patient cohort that we ended up with. We had a very nice mattering of ages and a fairly good diversity of education level, likely socioeconomic status as well. So what do surgeons say? Well, they say it's big surgery. Say it's a reality. This is what they say to patients. It is a reality when you have big surgery. This is inherently dangerous business, and my job is to make it turn out right. That's what we do, but it's still dangerous to go through it just so you understand that. And we found this again and again as surgeons were talking to patients before very high-risk operations, that they would explicitly talk about how dangerous the operation is and use the words big surgery. And if they didn't use the words big surgery, they used analogs of the world, of the word, saying things like it's not small surgery, it's not day surgery, it's a really big deal, or this is heart surgery. You can see as we went through our transcripts, we tried to sort of peel out the meaning of what big surgery was. So one thing that they were saying when they were talking about big surgery was that the surgery hurts, that it would be uncomfortable or it would be difficult for the patients to go through. Big surgery also meant that surgery had risk. Now as one heart surgeon say, what can go wrong? Well, lots can go wrong. This is heart surgery. Or that the operation was technically difficult. And as the surgeon says, well, we have to make an abdominal incision, that we're making incisions in each groin, and then we clean those arteries out. And sometimes we have to bring the graft down and actually go into the groin and do a bypass. It's a pretty big operation to go through. And finally, the other meaning we saw was that the patient may experience a profound change in their quality of life after surgery. One surgeon said that's just forgetting about the whole patient, who's maybe older and their lifestyle, what they're capable of doing, what the dangers are, the time to recover from surgery, like it's a big, big decision. Surgeons also discussed informed consent, but this was actually in a separate part of the conversation. It was more towards the end of the conversation after deliberation about surgery had occurred. And this is fairly typical of how informed consent went down. The big risk that we worry about surgery, it may sound terrible, you know, heart attacks, stroke, bleeding, infection, death, kidney trouble. Risks were typically listed and the complications were named, but not described. Surgeons also talked about the routine use of post-operative life-supporting treatments, but they talked about them in a very regular routine way. As one surgeon said, you're in the ICU for a day or two afterwards, usually a couple of days. Many times we let you stay on the ventilator overnight so we can wake you up gradually and it's not too stressful. Then that evening or the next morning we take the breathing tube out of your throat. So they were preparing patients for a routine post-operative course, but did not mention what would happen if it was a complicated post-operative course or if the patient required prolonged, aggressive life-supporting treatments. So did surgeons ask patients to buy in? Well, my answer to that is sort of. In one case, we did say a surgeon explicitly asking a patient to buy in and what he said was, if we decide we're going to be there, then you and I have sort of a verbal contract and we're going to do everything that we can to have the outcome that we want. So if we're going to go forward with that, then we have an understanding that everybody is going to do their utmost and this was the most explicit buy-in that we saw. We saw a few examples of implicit buy-in where the surgeon said, if you need to be here longer, you're here longer or sometimes it's a war and you have to fight the battles to win the war so you have to be prepared for that on some levels. But most of what we saw was an assumed buy-in that the patient agreed to move forward and that this was part of their understanding that risks could occur and that surgery was a package deal and this sounds a little flippant but in fact what this surgeon is saying is a little bit more complicated than the quote here. So she says, this is a form that basically says we've gone over the risks and that you agree to go forward. It's not a contract by any means. You can always just not show up but what she really means is that once you've shown up, then you're committed. So what did the patient say? Well in fact, you might imagine probably this is maybe a surprise more so to me, the surgeon than to many of you but most of these conversations, in fact all of these conversations were dominated by the surgeon. 75% of the time the surgeon was talking and only about 25% of the time was the patient talking. There was some variability in there but really these were very much surgeon dominated conversations. So how did the patients react? This is pretty typical of what we saw. This is a wonderful neurosurgeon who is fantastic with his patients and says very clearly this is an area for vision smell, function of legs and bladder. You could even have a stroke or damage to the vision. You could have an infection or trouble with healing and then he says in a perfect way, what questions do you have for me? And the patient comes in and says, well, washing my hair. And the doctor very politely responds to her question and explains her how to use the baby shampoo and he says don't scrub the stitches and the family pipes in with are you gonna use stitches or staples? And so here you have a pretty classic description of what we saw, a very intense conversation about the burdens of treatment, the potential complications and the response of the patient or the family coming in with logistic or technical concerns and very limited discussion about what would we do if something went wrong. So did we see patient buy-in? And again, a little is what I might conclude here. So these are the levels of patient buy-in that we saw. We saw some explicit acknowledgement that the surgeon could do whatever is necessary around the time of the surgery. You do what you have to do, I have complete faith in you or you're the boss. We did see some general recognition that death or other complications would be somehow tolerated. It's God's will, I've led a good life or something about your lifestyle changes and you adjust to it. But mostly what we saw was a willingness to proceed with surgery and acknowledgement that risks this. As one patient says, there's a risk to everything. So what can we conclude from this data? So surgeons certainly explain the risks of the procedure, their commitment to patient survival and the seriousness of the patient's decision to proceed. And I can understand how these efforts may confer a sense that the patient has agreed to participate in all postoperative life supporting treatments. However, we had limited evidence that the patient had truly bought in to the use of aggressive interventions beyond surgery itself. And as such, I don't think we can use whatever we think is being said in these preoperative conversations to make postoperative determinations about life supporting treatments. In qualitative research, often what we're looking for since we can't get generalizability is resonance. And after we sort of pulled our issues of big surgery together, one of my research colleagues was listening to Mike and Mike on the radio. It's a ESPN sports show. And what we heard was about RG3, who was the quarterback for the Washington Redskins. And RG3 had a terrible devastating knee injury at the end of last year. And they got a surgeon on to talk to Mike and Mike about his surgery. And the surgeon says, you don't understand. This is a major ordeal. This is redo surgery in a top flight athlete and he may never be the same again. But really, the surgical consult that they got on Mike and Mike was talking about big surgery. So I do think that this issue of big surgery does resonate with surgeons. How well it resonates with patients, I'm not so sure. And that's our for our future study. I wanna just acknowledge a few people from McLean Center who are in my research team. One is Caleb Alexander, who has been a phenomenal mentor to me and without whom I could not have gotten to this point. And the second person is Martin McNeely, who obviously supplied all of the patients in Toronto and has been a really fantastic research collaborator. So thank you very much for letting me present. Thank you. Great paper.  The first time I ever saw the buy-in situation was in 1973. I took a patient out to the Hutch in Seattle, Washington for a bone marrow transplant. And the Hutch was the only place in the world in 1973 under Don Thomas doing bone marrow transplants. And they simply made a deal with the patient at the outset that they would ignore what the patient said for the first 45 days. If the patient wanted a bone marrow transplant and the only place in the world that was doing them. I mean that, it wasn't a signed contract but it was that sort of agreement that we're gonna go all out and you may not be in the situation to make good decisions for yourself. But that was an explicit question and answer. I'm wondering if you're beating around the bush with some of these big surgery and so on. Yeah, I mean so I think the question is are the surgeons beating around the bush? And my answer is yeah, I think that they are to some degree and people when I present this ask me to sort of say well what should we be saying? And right now I really think I can just be descriptive and not particularly proscriptive. I do think that patients are often very afraid before surgery and sort of throwing down their throat what it would be like if a major complication occurred would be difficult. I think the other piece of it is we are actually interviewing patients now before their big operations and interviewing them after surgery. And so we don't have enough data to say what needs to be said or what could be said or what their decisional needs are before surgery. So it's still sort of up in the air about what patients need. I think it's really important for surgeons to understand that even though they think they've had this conversation, they probably haven't. And that's sort of where I am right now. Karen. Hi, Karen Devon, University of Toronto. I'm a surgeon there. Great research. I'm wondering if perhaps it might inform a case that someone called me about a week ago. This is a hepatobiliary surgeon who has a 60-year-old healthy patient who has a resectable pancreatic adenocarcinoma. The patient does not wish to know their diagnosis and wants the family to make all the decisions about having a Whipple procedure or high-risk surgery.  She's using her autonomy to defer the decision, but I just feel so uncomfortable that I can't do this. So I'm just wondering what you think about that. Yeah, I mean, I feel like I've heard this case in multiple iterations before, and I think Lainey actually does a good job with this sort of deferring decisions to family members. And I think for some people, that actually is a very reasonable thing to do. I think surgeons actually are very much face-to-face with this idea of how afraid people are before their operation. And I can understand why your surgeon is so frustrated and scared about this because he feels like, if I go and do this big operation on this patient, how are they, and they're not ready for it or they don't get it, then it's not gonna go particularly well for that patient. And I don't have the perfect answer for you, but I do think I can certainly understand why the surgeon is upset about that. That was a great talk, Retchen. I have one question. And when I saw your slide regarding the implicit surgeon buy-in, the comments included the analogy of to war. And I'd like to think that there may be some gender bias in terms of what's discussed with patients. I'd like to think that with more and more women going into surgery, we're getting away from the war analogies with battles and action heroes being the surgeons. Was there a difference in terms of men versus women's surgeons? Yeah, so I mean, it's a great question. You know, we did this large national survey of vascular surgeons, cardiothoracic surgeons, and neurosurgeons, three groups. And 95% of our respondents were male. And so while I think that maybe things will change over time, buy-in large surgeons who do very high-risk procedures are still male. We see a lot of war metaphors, a lot. Retchen, that was great. The hardest cases I've been involved in, and of course I always harp on this topic, I know, but I've been at cases where the patient consented to surgery and then had a serious complication and wound up intubated and on the ventilator. And it was actually the family who asked to withdraw. And I wonder about the challenge of the fact that the family may or may not be there for the pre-op consent process and yet later maybe horrified at the course of treatment or want to stop before the surgeon does. Yeah, I mean, I think that's a great question. I would say, Lexi, at least in our group, we had a lot of family members present. I would say at least in two thirds, maybe a little bit more than that. And we've even had them present for our preoperative interviews. So fortunately, at least in the elective setting, I don't know how elective you can call this, but at least in the outpatient clinical setting, it does, for these patients, it does seem that they often come with a family member. And so the family member is actually not necessarily participating in this discussion, but certainly has heard it. It's a great question. Thanks, Gretchen. That was great. Thanks.


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It's like a lot of people just walking around and soaking it in Yeah, I mean meeting up like all the friends thinking like we haven't seen a lot of these people in years. Yeah, exactly So it's been good. Are you feeling wild a little bit? Dude, I'm I didn't bring a laptop Everybody all the all the GTA our peers. Yeah, all the all the loud people all the closet loud people Everybody's got laptops in the hotel room and they're all sitting in queue and they leave they get they get it They're gone.  I'm literally gonna get home And I'm gonna rate it as soon as I can get home. Nice. I played your game before Did it yeah, dude, this is sick. Did you did you craft this yourself? Yeah, dude. No way What is what is the material on this? It's all 3d printed. Oh, can you get close show them how good this is? What can I hold the helmet? Are you are you? I'm both pretty much Oh really Face reveal Dude, this is crazy painted the whole thing. It's got air conditioning in it.  That's crazy. 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Well, yeah, I'm most my what's my look I've got a wide range of people people want from high schoolers to like people in retirement homes So there's so so so the average is like I would probably say like a six foot five punter from Minnesota Okay, Frank legend at twitch con and we're asking streamers. Who are you and why should people follow you on twitch? My name is that's been and I don't know There's literally no reason to follow me and I don't know why so many people do it. You're such a great guy, man Thank you.  Yeah, how'd you ever meet Bruce? So I've known Bruce for almost five years. Wow Yeah, so me me and me and Bruce. I've known Bruce since I think it was in high school when we met I think it was a senior high school. Yeah, cuz he was uh Him and I used to do the raw show and you know what I said?  Yeah He's like that kind of that kind of personality. So it's good I love Bruce dude and Bruce Jordan OTK was like a perfect fit cuz like me Bruce miss like we've all known each other for years So and then him like I remember seeing Bruce Bruce started blowing up Like like two three years ago. I'm really like a couple thousand years.  I don't care about all that right Bruce is the guy That's like the bridge between like all the different communities on Twitch for me Yeah What's one of the most embarrassing moments that you ever had on Twitch? Most embarrassing moment on Twitch Man, I can I can say every day I go live Man give me the best man any time I cue League of Legends Oh That was a big that was a lot of aggro Yeah, that's a baby.  Oh, yeah, she she was just dream. I want to know that be she see yeah Dude minute you robber literally just talking about that Someone brought it up to me because someone brought the like he was bad thing Yeah, I was just like bro, like we were in the back of a cop car hitting your bad. Yeah, dude. 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India is known for its culture and diversity, for its splendid architecture and monuments, for its rich historical heritage. But what is little known is that the country was also one of the biggest homes to dinosaurs. Millions of years ago, dinosaurs of different ages and sizes from different periods of time inhabited India. Central India along the Narmada River has a particularly vast fossil record. In the early 1980s, thousands of dinosaur eggs were discovered in Balasar North town of Gujarat. A dinosaur fossil park was later built there. Despite the discovery almost 40 years ago, there is very little that is known about these eggs and very little that has been done to conserve them. Why is that? And what are the threats faced by India's fossil treasures? We find out. Till wherever your eyes can see, everywhere you will find fossils and eggs of dinosaurs. This is approximately a 72 hectares fence area where you will see fossilized remains of the prehistoric animals scattered all over the place. Alia Farhadbabi is a descendant of the royal family of Balasar North. She has been deeply involved in the fossil conservation efforts in the area. She is also known as the dinosaur princess. This is a very important place because it is the hatchery as well as the graveyard for the dinosaurs. The dinosaurs lived in this region and they died here. So the number of eggs which have been found here is also a large number and the eggs are of both sauropods and theropods and they are very well preserved. We have in the same park, Balasinar Park, there are some nesting sites and also very close to those nesting sites but not very close. In fact, it is about half a kilometer. You will find the beds, the lamata beds in which you find the bones. So that is why people are saying that it is a bad place and also a death place. Balasinar was the second largest dinosaur hatchery in the world. This is the place which is the hatchery for the dinosaur eggs. The eggs are found here within the clutches and the clutch consists of 5 to 7, 15 to 20 eggs and they are still deeply embedded in the rocks. So the largest clutch that we have over here is consisting of around 7 to 8 eggs in one cluster. So this is the largest cluster that we have discovered over here. It is consisting of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 eggs. As you can see, these are spherical in shape and they are probably from the sauropod dinosaurs. The sauropod dinosaurs laid spherical shaped eggs and the theropods eggs were generally oval shaped. Apart from the eggs, different bones have also been found such as this limb bone, parts of a dinosaur's back bone and many small bones which are still unidentified. One of the most exciting discoveries was of the bones of the local dinosaur, Rajasaurus Narmadensis. So this is our very famous, Balasnur's very famous Rajasaurus which was a theropod dinosaur, a 30 foot stocky carnivore dinosaur which feasted on the long neck sauropods which were also found in an area which I will be showing you now which is called the GSI pit. So the fossilized remains of both these theropods and sauropods were found in this pit. Approximately 400 bones were recovered from here including the brain case, the nasal horn, parts of the hind leg, the jaw with a lot of teeth and all were recovered from here. So this you can see is one of the fossilized remains which is still embedded in the rock. A research paper published in 2010 reveals the presence of another carnivore dinosaur in the area. From this pit they found fossilized remains of eight number of dinosaurs. They were probably from one herd, one family and all these dinosaurs were of various ages from an adult to a juvenile and the research was done by Dr. Chatterjee, Dr. Udra and all when they excavated it and it was studied and the papers were published by I think these Chatterjee, Udra and Novus and all and they identified the species as belonging to a carnivore dinosaur which was not the Rajasaurus but another dinosaur which the name they gave was after the village of Rayoli called Rayoli-saurus Gujaratensis. Remains of dinosaurs have also been found in Dhar district of Madhya Pradesh around 250 kilometers from Balasinore. The local population of this area is instrumental in the protection of fossils that have been found here. High school physics teacher Vishal Verma has been leading the effort. The area is rich in fossils of marine and plant life from different prehistoric eras. Dinosaur fossils were first discovered in 1991. About a decade ago, 100 dinosaur eggs were also found. I had a student who wanted to tell us about all the sites and he wanted to be a PhD student. During that time, all the sites where we were allowed to find the dinosaur fossils were rocks like that. We had to take it there as well. I was not able to find any dinosaur even after going there many times. But after going with him, we kept going for a few days. And we got 25 dinosaur eggs in a few days. After that, we collected a lot of eggs for 100 to 100 hours. There were a lot of nests. We had a lot of dinosaur nests from the institute and the Luz. We found 3 nesting fossils in Dhar district of Madhya Pradesh. They are about 30 kilometers away from Dhar district. This is the biggest nesting of Dhar district of Dhanasaur. We found 65 nests here. In 2007, we found 100 Luz eggs here. We also found the nests of the institute. It was a huge achievement for us. This is a Maestrian time age. You can see a mountain called Complamator Rocks. You can see a very thin white layer of a circular structure. This is basically an intact dinosaur egg. These are actuals of dinosaur eggs. The upper half of the egg has come out of the weathering. The lower half of the egg is in the institute. There is a structure like a cottage here. The entire structure has come out of here. Some actuals have come out of here. There are a lot of egg fragments around here. When we get a natural institute like this, when there is a lack of lithology, we get a complete Luz eggs when we go out. The actuals that you see here are the eggs of a typical dinosaur egg. They are fully spherical and perfectly spherical. You can see the dotted type of the actual details. This is not the way it came out. This is the way it came out. This is a Luz egg. The site has been declared protected as the National Dinosaur Fossil Park, consisting of an area of around 90 hectares scattered with fossils. In this, you can see the eggs of these two dinosaurs. Then there are two eggs. Then there are two eggs like this. In this way, you can see that a curvature shape has come out of the egg. When we get a lot of nests, and if they are of different dinosaurs, we get a nesting pattern. Some give eggs in a spiral way, some give eggs in a random way. We should know a little bit about dinosaurs. We call an oviduct a duct from which the eggs come out. Birds have a single oviduct. Dinosaurs have two oviducts. We get the laying of the eggs from both the oviducts. This is a different pattern. We can see that this is an understudy, but we have to understand that two eggs have come out of the oviduct. There are about 65 such nests in this National Park. We get different information about each nests. Not only about dinosaurs, but also about the biodiversity and the biodiversity of the time. The immense variety of fossils found in the area show what life was like when dinosaurs walked on planet Earth. This is the entire habitat of our dinosaur. This is the entire reserve. This is the formation that we get in Central India or Narbada River basin along which we get dinosaur eggs. We get STGN lamata rocks. This is a little earlier. They are about 70 million years old for their reductive dating. They have been alive since the time of dinosaurs. The marine life fossils found here are from different prehistoric periods. If you look at the Jalaskan history, this namada valley was once a rift valley. It underwent a sort of down drop of the rocks, which would result in a rift valley. Nowadays, we have the East African rift valley in Africa, which is a recent event. We had this long ago, much, much more before even the dinosaurs. And then this was reactivated in the cretaceous that is around 100 million years ago. So along this rift valley, the marine water incursion of the marine waters took place. So the sea transgressed the land. So it happened around 100 million years ago. The marine fossils originate from this incursion. As you can see, there are a lot of shark's teeth in this. There are a lot of them. We have a large number of them. We have a large number of them, in the time of Cognition, Silica, Laid, and Masti Chin. We have around 40,000 of them. In the last four years, we have collected the shark's teeth from different places. For the second teeth, we have the brittle rocks from those rocks. Or we have to cool them down and remove the tooth from them. So these are about 12 to 12 feet long sharks. And we have seven types of sharks here. We have seven types of sharks here. We have a large number of them. And as far as we know, the data is available on the internet. The large amount of shark's fossil deposits are nowhere in India. We have these sharks in the time of Cognition. And then there is a time gap in the middle. And then we have the late Masti Chin, from Cognition. So we have the sharks of different time periods. And then we have the chapter of its evolution. We talk about dinosaurs. So here we have pre-Chenomenian age which we have here, in the era of Abel Suright. When the sea did not come, there was a dinosaur at that time. When the sea came at the time age, it was around the dinosaur. So it came into the sea because the sea was quite shallow. When the sea goes away, the fresh land that is exposed then comes down to the valley. The beauty and widespread presence of these fossils has led to the development of interesting cultures around them. Worshipping a fossil is a common phenomenon in Dhar district. I felt that there was a rock in the middle of the river. It was like a rock. There was a rock all around it. In the middle of the river, I got it about 20 years ago. I got it about 20 years ago. I didn't keep it here. I kept it at home. Since the temple was built on the side of the wall, I have kept it here for 2-3 years. There are many columns-type structures. They are connected to each other. And if you look at these structures from a distance, there is a whole field and there is a small hill in the middle. There is a long one and a small long arrow. In the middle of the arrow, these columns are pressed inside. If something goes wrong, they come out of it. Basically, basaltic lava is formed by the cooling of the lava. In India, especially in Madhya Pradesh, there are a lot of these. But there is no protated declare. Narbada is a tectonic activity. The whole systemic activity is still active. And in the old days, we had monuments like this. And at different times, there are a lot of monuments like this. The age is the most important thing. The activities here in Narbada are also very important. Actually, we were working on making roads. It is very easy to fall down. But it is a very good preserve. Sometimes it gets a little messy. So it is easy to fall down. It is easy to make a pit. So, there was something here that the whole thing that you are seeing here, was removed and made a pit. So, when we got to know, we complained to him. Even the professor of telecommunication, G. V. R. Prasad, in a very written form, which was called by the administration, that you should not break it. But actually, what we say is that it goes away. That letter should always be in the form of a standing order for Panchat. So, it was a little difficult. Then that activity started. Then we met with some students and we made a way that we put a little vermillion here. By putting it, it becomes a religious issue. It is not good in science yet. It was a way of working for us to save this monument. And now it does not break it. It used to be dirty. Apart from worshipping, the tribals and the other locals of the area are also familiar with the scientific importance of these fossils. They regularly work in collecting them and ensuring their safety. I mean, if we were looking for a treasure, the children, the mother, the sister would find a treasure and collect it. This is Pachia. And this is Gai Ki Khur. They would find it and bring it. But they would tell me that this is the treasure. They would leave it. They would keep it. There are many people who are looking for it. There was a mother, and she was blind. She was blind. So, she could not see it. Even then, she could not see it. She could not see it. They would collect it and they would leave it. They would keep it without the treasure. They would keep it. They would keep it. They would bring it later. When we came to Visalsar and we came to know what the scientific importance was, we came to know what the treasure was. We came to know that this was the treasure. We have been working with them since long. So, they would take it out and they would find it. We also came to know what the head was looking for and what he was saying. So, we came to keep a lot of attention. The head told us to find it and keep it safe for ourselves. So, we came to know and we are protecting it today. Earlier, we used to do a stone ball. When it came we used to make it and worship it. So, we would keep it and worship it. We would keep the treasure in the field and place it on the ceiling. When it came to eat the macka, we would break it and make it five times and then we would start eating it. To keep the treasure, it was going on from the beginning. We didn't know what the head was looking for. We didn't know what the egg was. We now know what the dinosaur egg is. So, now we know what the head is. We keep a lot of attention and if we don't even look back even if we look back we won't be able to see the head. We need to keep a lot of attention keeping the head safe. They are convinced If we get all these things, we will get gold, we will get silver, but if these things are finished, then we will not get them again. That is why we are taking care of these things. And we are still thinking about where it is coming from, where it is coming from, where it is not breaking, we are saving it. Those who have been a part of the excavation process often form a lifelong connection with fossils. Gorabhai Chauhan was one of the workers involved in the excavations that took place in 1997. Curious about dinosaurs, he borrowed a book from one of the paleontologists, Shankar Chatterjee, and copied its contents to his notebook. At that time, there was a huge fear. How many species of wild animals were running in the forest in the name of dinosaurs? Of course, during this time, the age of reptiles in the jungle was 100 feet tall and 50 feet tall. Like Argentine, Seismos, Ultrasurus, Grachiosurus and Supersurus. At that time, your father was very alive. When he joined us, your father was alive. At that time, the wood, the stone, the pieces that were taken from the stone, I had never taken it from my father. My father is the owner of this place. I asked my uncle if he had taken it from his father. He said no. But your uncle is the owner of this place. Why don't you take all the property from the village? If I don't take it from my father, I won't take any stone. If I don't take it from my father, I won't take it. Because your village is the owner of this property. Many students in the area started collecting fossils at a young age. Some of them are still involved in fossil conservation. First of all, we used to go to the Stone Tours to search for them. We used to collect them. It was free time. We used to spend half an hour between 2.30 and 2.30. After that, we started going to the next sites. On Sundays, Saturdays and holidays. On holidays, we started going to the fields. After that, we went to the dinosaur sites. We used to go there. We used to drive cars. Mostly, we used to drive cars. The driver used to close our site. After that, we used to drive cars. We used to go there and collect them ourselves. After that, we started going to the children. We had passed out at that time. We used to take the children to the school together to collect them. We used to show them that this is what happens. We study the paleontology. We collect the fossils. After collecting them, we place them in a particular place. There is very little economic source. We want to study the paleontology. If there is no economic source, we collect them. We have to invest in the work that we do. Government or other agencies can't help us. My mind is in this field. But there is no future. I have seen it for the past 5-6 years. But there is no economic source. There is a financial problem to study. Some say that they don't let girls go out. Some say that they have a friend. But they don't let them go out. Unavailability of options and resources for education is an institutional problem. It reflects the general condition of Central Indian universities at the moment. Our university is neither Central nor State. We are facing funding problems. UGC has put a ban on recruitment for 3-4 years now. For the last so many years, people are getting retired and there are no new recruitment. Our department is the centre of advanced studies department and one of the earliest departments. Since 1954, we have been one of the best departments in paleontology and stratigraphy. Earlier there were 24 faculty. Now we are almost down to 10 or 11. Out of those, there are only 2 or 3 paleontologists left. In universities, there is a lot of problem of teaching faculty. The most universities and even IITs actually are running at about 50% of the required faculty strength. So we do not have enough teachers here. This problem is perhaps even more acute in universities. So that's one problem. The other problem is in universities, we do not have adequate infrastructure for carrying out research. Whereas in research institutes, infrastructure is not a problem. We have most of the equipments and instruments that we need to do our research. There are very few colleges where we have knowledge. The third thing is that we need to guide ourselves so that we can tell ourselves about a good dream and work with it. These fossils and the sites where they are found have immense scientific importance and commercial potential. Despite that, they have been ignored and neglected by the government. Very little has been done to conserve them, promote their research and showcase them to the world. In 81, after the site was discovered, between 81 and 97, a lot of vandalism did take place. A lot of fossils got stolen, eggs got stolen and they were being sold. But after 97 also when we got the site and all barricaded, because we had no guards at the site, we had no people manning the area. They were not here to protect. So at that time also in spite of the barricades a lot of fossils were being stolen and were being sold. Not that it's a big market in India, but there were some buyers and that was a very sorry state because a lot of good specimens have got lost in the process. So that's going to be very difficult when you're actually going to do the research now in the future and these important pieces are gone. So it's like losing a very important piece of a puzzle. So how can you make the whole puzzle if there are some important pieces missing? To the best of my knowledge, there is no law in this country that protects fossils. As of now, anybody can go to a fossil site and collect fossils and just take away. Unlike in many other countries where they have specific laws actually as to who can collect fossils, who can study fossils. There have been multiple incidents of theft of eggs and other bones from the Balasunor site. So from this rock you can see by the cut marks here that this whole portion of a rock which had eggs inside the whole portion was taken away. But two or three of the eggs are still remaining but the other eggs which were in that portion they got stolen. So the whole rock which was still here where this bush is small little shrub is till there this rock was there which contained some of the eggs. So the whole thing was stolen. No, we don't know who did it because you see even though the area was fenced off we didn't have adequate patrolling and we don't have the stringent laws which would kind of put people behind bars for stealing eggs because for a layman these are not eggs, they are just stones. And I think India does need very stringent laws when it comes to the preservation and protection of fossils. In one case which occurred around 7 to 8 years ago the theft was done in a precise manner with the use of sophisticated tools. See you can yourself be the judge. How beautifully they have been stolen. Who do you suspect? No idea. I don't know. As I mentioned this it was sophisticated instruments but nonetheless they left the eggshell there. Can you see the eggshell? You can see that's just another layer. Like in coconut there is no layer of cream. You can see that layer. That's the eggshell. Like that's the inside of the shell, outside you can see what. I was saying that if someone comes then if someone wants to buy an egg does anyone get it available here? No. The raioli that you went to they don't have it but they don't have it. They don't even have it. It's only in raioli. There are people in raioli who still sell it. But if you take all this then they think that this is the head of the government. That's why you didn't give it. You can give it if you want. They still sell it. It's not like that. It's difficult for you. It takes a lot of time. If you were traveling for a couple of days you would have found it. It's not like that. Without a camera. We went there. We were actually looking for some nesting sites because Harshra is doing her PhD. So we wanted to see the sites. And then we were waiting there to we went inside the park and then after that somebody came and said that you are looking for the eggs. He said yes. Then he said if you want I can bring one. So then he said he brought the egg actually. And it's half egg which is cut. And he said 5000. Fossils are also lost in other ways. Where there is no encroachment from villagers or no mining industry, cement factory or coal mining taking place there is no problem. But wherever there is this lignite or coal factory or cement factory these people just come and remove the overburden from fossil sites and then dump these materials somewhere else. This is a major challenge. The other challenge that I see is that when fossils are studied when the paleontologist retires from his service these fossils are just left unattended. They are left orphaned. So there is no proper place no national repository for these fossils where they can be permanently stored. I am going to retire after 5 years and all my collections all the specimens that I have collected where will they go? So because once I leave people who are here they may not be interested in these things they may just dump them somewhere because they need space. So ultimately they will be lost. So some of them are very important because these are the specimens holotypes or the type specimens for the new species that I have made. So if they are lost what will happen? I mean in future somebody wants to study those fossils they will not be there. So for that we need a sort of place a repository. So that is not there in India. That is the main problem. So most of the people it happened with many people even in recent times that their specimens were finally thrown away. See what is losses in the sense because we could not yeah a lot of samples are not gone now they are all gone so we don't know I mean how much we have lost but we have lost quite a lot. So this museum was commissioned by the tourism department of Gujarat and it got ready by 2011 but from that day it was just an empty shell what you see right now is all a lot of renovation work going on so for the empty shell now they are filling it up very soon with exhibits and models of dinosaurs everything related to dinosaurs and the historic era so as you can see a lot of work is going on but a lot of initial work is still left to be done this year we have proposed new gates because it is such a huge area it is such a large area we require gates especially at the hatcheries and even at the main entrance we require slightly bigger gates we have also proposed a new parking space it has been approved from the district level it is up for approval in Gandhi Nagar a parking space so that the cars the vehicles don't go inside the fossil park because impact can damage the fossils also additionally basic facilities like drinking water toilets all of sitting areas all of these things are being planned at the preliminary level at the park I have come from Baroda to see what is Baroda I had studied before that dinosaurs in Balasunur which is popular in the world heritage so we have vacations so we come here to see the real in Balasunur we came to know that the real which is popular in the world heritage and what is there it is too much we are angry because the government should take care of it and develop the development of the area there is no water there is no water there is a lot of shop there is no hotel near the fossil site in Dhar a museum was constructed two decades ago here the story of fossil conservation in Dhar district there was a lot of work on marine fossil on marine invertebrates there was a lot of work 60-70 years ago there was work but with research there was no problem with the conservation of fossil sites this is the story in 1992 I was doing master degree building but the purpose was not to do research we have to develop a park fossil is very beautiful and when you see it you will also want to collect it so as soon as we start something like this I had a lot of fossil it was a very beautiful diversity on a normal basis it was a threat and we just wanted where there is a lot of fossil rich area to be protected so this was done in 1996 at that time Dr. Rajesh Rajora was a collector we submitted a proposal that these are the sites and you can naturally protect them so we gave them planning and the DF Madam Samita Rajora visited many sites and she was very interested and she was very supportive so she said why do you keep it here it is a tourist place people will be able to see it but it does not have much to show anymore when tourists come it looks like less things if there are more things then there will be more maintenance if tourists come then our shop will also go here I kept my heart I kept it here I had made Gulab Karib so big in 5 years so many flowers made it so beautiful so what you don't want to know means outside that you feel good here it has been around 10-15 years what happened? the water was over we were working we were working we were doing good we did good maintenance after that we gave our shop after that there was nothing no one was paying attention the budget was over the Janpat Panchayat is a local government body which was given the duty of maintaining the museum but they do not have the funds to maintain it I told them the season of rain for tourists in more than a year in the season of 2-3 months 3-4000 the income of it is not much from the ticket the rest of the time it was the same there is nothing else nothing else whether it was his son or the dinosaur if it was then it would work from where? from the district from the district from the district so it is a big job so they do it and the rest of the work the income of the ticket we give it we give it from the same ticket and the next time we give it they do it they do it and when the money comes they pay it how much money from the other side? no money from the district the money of the ticket I have never seen no money from the district there are only 2 men employed to work in the museum Ashok Veeran's day I do it in the night and my responsibility is here the responsibility of the dinosaur to look at the eggs the small things to look at the plants I take care of the whole day and night the whole we have no other 2 men we have to work very hard in the rain but there are too many to look at they have to take care of everything the responsibility is for themselves it is very difficult because what can I do and I have less salary after that everyone has to burn people fight they take the ticket people give 5 rupees then we take care after that we say in the rain for a month then we close it no one is ready to pay because of little security precious eggs have been stolen from here as well the local authorities here have little understanding of the importance of fossils funds are unlikely to be allocated to a museum when there are more populations of the people living here there is little scope for progress without the involvement of paleontologists and government science departments this lack of involvement is also reflected in the museum information plates despite being a government sanctioned science museum some of the ideas here are pseudo scientific the people who have involved themselves in the conservation process have managed to protect many fossils but they have also brought in their own ideas created with fossils these ideas don't always comply with established scientific facts so that you can come with the vision of life with the fossils secondly, if you have an old science tradition then how it is taken is what common people think science should take that tradition and our records should take that record we wanted to do something on the old paleontology but it should be made by the agency because it is a religious issue something else but look at the people's interest you do a very good job and there is no one to see it so what is that work and you do a small work and the whole world is affected people's interest so we do work for people we do science for people this is the tradition of technology and all the stories that are mentioned why don't we show them so that they keep their place so for that we wanted to make a museum we wanted to make a very beautiful statue the scientific and their iconic icons and people come and for the religion which we talk about our nature, faith and science is very important so we are going to do that we are talking about your pharaonic paleontology because you have a big idea so you keep a lot of importance for it so you have never thought of taking help from such a religious organization because for them there will be a lot of importance for this look, I don't understand that I see a lot of banners which are worth lakhs then there are a lot of religious activities that are done by people in religion which takes a lot of time I don't ask for anything in front of everyone but I keep telling them that as I tell you that I will tell you a small thing there is a place near Bagh it is described by a great heart there is a lot of rain the clouds have been shining for a long time the light was shining it was visible in the whole sea there is a mountain to lose the shark I have visited the whole of Narbada I don't find the fossil of the shark if I have written about the shark I will write about this place so the shark is described there is a lot of pebble stones which are made of rain there is a lot of rolling stones the whole geology is described and with the references and with the fossils we can tell that we have seen the fossils in the land I have the Bagh caves the Bagh caves here there is a river called Bagni and there is a elephant universe you can see everywhere in temples there is a elephant there are a lot of icons Kirtupurusha so we can tell you very easily about the geology the elevation of the temple we can see the whole geology and its history we can describe with our own experience so what you are saying we have done all this but without asking or we should start the small land or at Narbada Kinar where we help to make a monument so in this way there are no such people this low pace of development is leading to some amount of disenchantment in the locals who have been working for the protection of fossils and I sometimes I feel very disheartened because this is considered to be the world's third largest dinosaur fossil excavation site second largest hatchery and still there is so much of negativity or so much of step motherly treatment step daughterly treatment being meted out to this fossil park considering its such a huge potential in terms of tourist or paleontological aspects we have international tourists visiting here so many times I do feel that why are we sidelined why is the work not happening at the pace it should happen it's happening but not at the pace it should happen I mean I've waited for 21 years for this site to come up the museum has been ready since 2011 but as I mentioned bygones be bygones and I would like to focus on what's happening today and what's going to happen tomorrow seeing all this development here now from what I've seen before I think I'm happy but still I'll be very quickly because people are coming they definitely are getting disappointed because there is nothing to see right now this is a place so the government doesn't have any knowledge of this for the villagers this is the first of all after that in those years it was like in our village and the other villagers were like this that the villagers will get a job they'll be happy but nothing has happened the locals who have been working for protection and preservation of fossils have gone through many struggles but they have persisted in their efforts for years and continue to do so the students here understand the importance of fossils so they give hope for the future ma'am actually with our science we won't let them waste we'll have to save them so we went to the side and saved them India's fossil record is not just restricted to dinosaurs it goes much beyond that to protect it a lot still needs to be done


called based on updating of statistical parameters and the probability models for ice peak loads, so This is now based on previous study which was presented in the last workshop one of the examples and The objective is to present some probabilistic models for peak ice loads acting on a ship in Arctic areas Also illustrate based on updating of statistical parameter for a simplistic data set Just to make it more transparent and also Based on updating for mixture of different models, which are members of a selected model space or Model universe, so this is similar to what we have also heard from costas Earlier where there was different models which are competing to get most Likelihood or or the highest possibility so Also to compute probability of failure for fixed capacity threshold for different Probability models based on the posterior distribution functions. So it's to illustrate The this space and updating procedure. So now the the data which was behind the study was from expedition with the coast guard vessels fall bar in 2007 and This is the fiber optic sensors on the internal frames so there are Five four frames in the front in the bow area, which are instrumented and then there's one frame in the midship, but most of the ice peak peak loads will occur in the bow area typically This is now the root of the the ship So, I guess you know where Svalbard is is up in the far far north in Arctic and This is now how you can use the the measurements to estimate the load It's based on share the formation so you can based on estimation of share forces. You can estimate the external load So this is now the local loading between two frames. So it's a line load estimation. So this is and this is what the typical record looks like you have a lot of these peaks and The intensity is pretty high. So we see that the scale on the horizontal axis is like five minutes between each of the marks 755 in the morning 8 in the morning 8 to 5 in the morning and so on. So we see we have a lot of impacts on the hull during even five minutes. So now what is the statistical model for this process and the data they show like two statistical Populations in a way you see the upper Upper data they are due to the hard inclusions in eyes. So they they show a different slope a Smaller slope than the for the lower part where you have most of the data So if you try to fit a straight line, we see that misses the what is happening in extreme cases where you really Where you have interest if you want to calculate the extreme loading anyway fatigue is different But for extreme loading, it's the upper parts The hard inclusions that really matter. So That means you should really Fit two slopes. So if you are using for example an exponential model, you need a Mixed model with two slopes and some mixing coefficient for the exponential part Now this is what you also can get if you use a single exponential model You have the lambda the intensity parameter of the exponential depends on the eyestickness. So you can Plot this as a function of the eyestickness and we see there's a large scatter, but there's some Decreasing trend that means that the thicker eyes the the smaller the intensity of the Lambda parameter of the exponential now also the Bible is much applied for for I speak loading and This is now the then you have of course two parameters. This is a two-parameter Bible So you have the scale and the shape parameters K and theta. So now they will also Have a more flexibility to fit the set of data and they also show Some trend if you compare with the eyestickness, they have some some tendency to change with it with the eyestickness and Then This is This is the same so we This is now the third one, which is the three-parameter exponential So we see that so now we have the three parameters. We have the mixture coefficient. We have the lambda one. We have lambda two and This is very much applied in The sign of ships they use the three-parameter, but in fact, they only use the upper part because that's what matters. So You frequently see one parameter exponential, but it's only the upper part which are the highest loading So that is applied for the sign And then you have the other community which are applying the Bible distribution. So in the way, there are two schools in the in the this branch to to use two different approaches to Estimation or extreme values. One is the Bible. One is the Upper slope for the exponential distribution, but this is now the true Mixture distribution if you want to use fatigue analysis, you will use the three-parameter exponential to look at that now We look at base and updating and we look at three different probability models. One is the exponential One is the exponential with upper tail data. Then we have the Bible and Then there's a combination of these because you can start with the possibility that These three models are all possible models. So you don't Say that exclude any of them. We say they say that they're equally probable to start with and then you look at the data to see what the data tells you about which model is the best one and Then also we look at probability of failure for fixed threshold and we apply a simplistic data set to make it more transparent, so I have picked nine samples which are Representative for the line loads on the on the bow area. So we have from 33 Kilo Newton per meter and up to 195 and This is now for the exponential. We see that this is exponential probability paper we see we have basically straight line is fitted and So the slope is point 0123 for the The fitted regression line and that means the lambda becomes point 0123 for the regression parameter estimation And you also see we have the lower part is is a high slope the upper part is a smaller slope So clearly we see that the data Does not fit Very well to to the upper part of the model and it doesn't fit too well to the lower part of the model But on average it fits quite well but Then we look at the the posterior distribution of the For this case and now we have a uniform prior so we take the uniform between the lambda max and I'm not mean and then we look at the posterior distribution and the Uniform distribution disappears because it occurs both the normalizing factor and the Nominator so that means We end up with a with a normalization factor and an exponential term which is a summation of the Sample and also a product of the lambda meter. So now this is a posterior shown as a function of lambda and then You can see that we have the peak which corresponds now to the max likelihood estimator because we have uniform prior a normalization factor constant is very small here. So This is now the Unnormalized one. So this is what you get after you divide by the normalization factor Now if you only pick the upper part of the data the three highest values You get the different posterior and you see that now the lambda estimator the max likelihood is smaller It's now closer to 0.01 And normalization constant is very different 2.8 times 10 to minus 10 for this case Then we look at the Bible model and This is the PDF and we have also prior which is uniform between Now two limits. It's one for the shape one for the scale parameter likelihood function is a bit more complex you have products involving the two parameters and we can also plot now the Posterior PDF for this one and the normalization factor now is 0.38 times 10 to minus 18 very small also and We see again that you have a peak which corresponds to max likelihood estimator for s and the shape and the scale parameters So this is now the the peak of this posterior Density function also since also here we have uniform prior prior distributions Then you can look at the extreme values based on the posterior and the here we use the the basic initial distribution and on the exponent Take the exponent to the end power because they assume independence and This can now be approximated for for large n which we have here by Exponential expression and then we can Also introduce the posterior distribution and we get then we get the probability of failure conditional on the shape and the the scale parameters and this is now the posterior probability of failure and Then we can integrate So this is now for the exponential and this is for the vibe. We can now This is conditional the parameters, but then we also combine with the likelihood function And we get the exponential case to the to the left to see that there is an increasing Probability of failure for small and small a lambda and for the upper tail. It's the same, but we have of course different Shapes you have different maximum values for the upper tail we have a maximum of five and for the other one we have a very small maximum value of the Probability of failure conditional probability of failure Now this is for the two parameter model. We see that they also have increasing probability of failure for Lower shape and for higher scale, which is not Unreasonable. This is what you would expect. So you see that the reason you stop here is that you have a Uniform prior which is Limited you have an upper and lower limit on the parameters now you can also look at the unconditional probability of failure by integrating away the the parameter lambda for one case and then you have The vibe will for the other case and you see that we get very different values of the probability of failure one is for the exponential ten to minus eight for the Exponential upper tail ten to minus three and for the vibe will ten one times ten to minus three which are is comparable to the upper tail exponential so They give Quite good correspondence for the two for the exponential upper tail and the vibe will but the exponential The single parameter and all data are it's not so good Then you can also look at combination of different probability models based on based on updating we have seen these formulations by cost us earlier, so the traditional basic and parameter updating is the upper Expression below of one is if you have combination of probabilistic models and J with different a priori probabilities Then you can find the joint posterior of the parameter Vector and the model and then you can integrate away the parameter vector So that means you can look at the marginal posterior of the model and you can also do the same if you have a continuous parameter model space sorry So the lower expression is for the case or yet the the model space is continuous. That means you have for example a structure model with the Continuous parameter and now looking at putting these Numbers into these expressions. We try first with the The prior probabilities for combination of all three distributions. We have one third on each of them and we see that for this small data set the posterior was probabilities they become binary because With the different normalization factors over the exponential tail gets all the weight others to get zero if you start with the Exponential on the Bible with point five then the Bible gets all the attention Exponential zero if you start with the upper tail and Bible with point five Then you end up with the the upper tail exponential and zero for the Bible and this is now due to the Different magnitudes of the normalization factors, but also probably due to the very small data set. So if you Increase the data set This might become more Not so binary as for this case now for the resulting failure probabilities, they also comply with the weighting of the different probabilistic models, so for the only exponential you get two times ten to minus eight as we mentioned then for the combination of all three distributions three point one times ten to minus three and for the Exponential and Bible one point zero ten to minus three and then for the exponential upper tail and Bible You get the same as or having all the three models in in your toolbox at the same time in your model universe, so You see that When you look at different candidates for statistical models, of course, you should not start with a single one you should have different alternatives and then they will Get weights posterior weights according to the data that you have of course you also have other ways of Looking at comparing different probabilistic models like regression coefficients or chi-square tests and all that but this is now For the Bayesian approach and then for the small data set, but what will happen. It is to look at Larger data sets and see how these numbers will will change for for a larger data set than just nine points Yeah, summary of results. This is just what we went through so Conclusions that we have looked at different probabilistic models rise loads and base and updating is performed for a simple simplistic data set Daniel probability for a fixed capacity threshold is computed for different models and Mixture of different models, which are members of the model universe. They are assessed by posterior probabilities And for the present data set is a strong ranking of the three models based on the posterior probability with binary type of Probilities and this is now Also, what was presented the last time we see that The extreme values long-term extreme values based on really real measure data. We have now the the upper tail or the two parameter exponential is to the right and Then the green one is the Bible then the single exponential is the Jell-O To points to the left and we have different return periods and again. We see that the Three-parameter exponential will give higher predictions of the extreme loads than the other two models So clearly the the overall data also seemed to indicate that the three-parameter viable or the upper tail Sorry, three-parameter exponential upper tail exponential is a very good model for the peak peak ice loads to predict extremes So these are now the three models one exponential to viable three three-parameter exponential and They also see we have return periods of one year five year and 20 years and the tendency is the same for all them all of these of course And this if you look at the factors the divide will predict 604 for the 20-year extreme The three-parameter exponential predicts 1061 which is almost a factor of or 40% higher than the viable prediction. So Concluding remarks we looked at the initial parent distribution of the ice peak load process based on updating our parameters basically an updating for the possibilities or credibility so the different models and also posterior failure probabilities for a fixed threshold based for the peak ice load and I should mention the threshold is 12 and a half times the the minimum lambda value. So that is pretty high threshold and that is to get the Probabilities of failure or way of a proper order of magnitude and that means also the design of the ship would clearly satisfy That threshold and even even higher design thresholds to get get the sound ship hull traveling in Arctic waters. So Thank you for your attention


What is up guys today? We're going to be shooting a video on how do you build a successful restaurant in 2020?  Hey guys, this Wilson here I just want to give a major shout out to these people who have commented in And and support us because of the end date. It's much more than just talking behind the camera I'm actually connecting with you guys So definitely shows a lot of support and I definitely feel it So thank you major shout out for you guys if you guys want to get featured make sure you guys leave comment section below Or just follow along the journey either Instagram or YouTube So a lot of you guys have been asking how do you build a successful restaurant out there Wilson? And that's the reason why we're shooting this video for you to give you just a quick sense of what it takes to build a Successful restaurant the step-by-step and on top of that I want you guys to be able to build something that has people coming through the doors And that's the reason why we're going to dive in to the five core principles That I personally follow in order for us to build an ice cream shop into an international chain Which recently got acquired now without further ado, let's dive right in the number one core principle to understand and building a Successful restaurant is to know your customer It is super crucial for us to understand the needs and the wants of our customer in order for us to create an item That they would enjoy we don't create items because of What we'd like and this is by far the number one Mistake that a lot of restaurantiers make is to create items that they they like and then they enjoy themselves But rather creating items that are fitting for their paying Customers and that's a little bit of a mindset shift that would set you apart from a struggling Restaurant here to a restaurant here that has lined up out the doors For example with 720 Suites our ice cream shop. We created this whole brand with Michelle in mind Now who is Michelle? Michelle is an 18 year old University student she loves spending time with her friends She loves being on Instagram and TikTok and she loves Sharing moments with the fans and family and that's the reason why everything that we created is specifically for Michelle from the item that we created to our Social media presence to the pictures that we take to the experience that they receive when they come into our shop Everything is tailored to Michelle and because Michelle feels and engage in this she feels like wow this place is amazing She in turn was able to get a lot more of her friends to come in and enjoy our products And that's we're able to get traction right out the gate By identifying everything and tailoring everything to Michelle's needs So for you you need to create something specifically to your customer go out there and start Identifying your own Michelle in order for you to create a successful restaurant in addition to that by Identifying your core customers. That's how you're gonna be able to build some loyal fans We don't want to go out there and create items that only people come in once and they never come back That's not a sustainable business And that's the reason why you need to understand Michelle in order For her to come back again and again to bring her friends and that's the power in knowing your customers Identifying who they are and identifying their shopping behaviors as well And in addition to that with this whole new change in spending behaviors We need to cater our offering to them as well Whether it is by curbside pickup whether it is online order We need to start implementing and adapting to the ever-changing landscape in order for us to serve Michelle better The second core principle to understand and building a successful restaurant is to keep it simple It is super crucial for us to do that because the major pitfall That a lot of new restaurant tiers make is that they have so many brilliant ideas of what Michelle would want And thus they create three four five pages of menu items in order to serve Michelle But unfortunately as human minds we can only receive so much Otherwise, we would suffer from something called a paralysis by analysis and thus we can't make a decision It is too complicated and we would not buy from you That's the reason why we need to keep things simple Have five to ten different items the core items that you want Michelle to purchase and just put it out there And in turn Michelle can pick her needs from their onwards with 720 sweets We have only four flavors for our ice cream curation The reason why we only have four flavors is because we want to make sure Michelle gets to try our Different rotation and every single week We have different rotation that comes out and in turn whenever she comes in She doesn't have to think for 10 20 minutes about what to purchase because if she likes chocolate There would be a chocolate version up there If she likes something plain and simple vanilla would be up there if she wants something tropical there would be a fruity option out there and it just helps her make the decision so much faster so much simpler and thus It becomes an effortless experience buying from us and that's the experience you want to serve to your customer In addition to that we need to make sure that we keep it simple by Understanding our costs. We need to keep items out there that are super profitable Make sure you work out your math and in this video We talk about how do you calculate the cost of good solds for your menu and thus if and only when you have Enough margins in your menu items would it work for your pocket at the end of the day? We want to work so hard To put some profit in our pockets and that's how you're able to build a successful restaurant It is by having profits left over after all the crazy expenses from rent from cost of good solds and labor That's why you need to keep everything super simple The perfect segue into point number three, which is to know and love your numbers This is by far the biggest mistake that restaurant tears make is to not know their numbers just imagine this you working five years in your restaurant and you're looking at tens of thousands of dollars coming in every single month You're happy but at the end of the month you're sad You're sad because you don't know why your bank is left with only a hundred bucks because all these expenses are Are costing you tens of thousands of dollars? And that's what a lot of restaurant tears face is because they don't understand their numbers without understanding the numbers they do not know whether they're truly profitable or Are they actually losing money? It's a very different story from what you make and as a revenue to how much you put it in your pocket That's the reason why we need to know our numbers and pay attention to them In addition to that it is crucial to know the numbers so then that way we know areas of Improvement for example, if we have 40% cost of goods sold So that we have identified then we need to understand Why is it costing us 40% because typically in the industry? We want to aim at only 25% cost of goods sold some areas That might occur that brought up that percentage might be for example spoilage That means we're ordering too much food and they go Expired and in turn we have to throw them away and that becomes a practice and an oversight that we have in Operating our business and if we don't understand the numbers if we don't pay attention to it We would not pay attention to this operational flaw, which we can easily fix Imagine just imagine that 10% of cost of goods sold that we're throwing away every single month that money Could be your profit that you put in your pocket and that's to provide for you and your family So that's the reason why understanding your numbers is crucial to your restaurant success If you guys find any value whatsoever from this video make sure you smash the like button because that just shows me This is the type of content you like and I'll create much more of it for you now Let's dive right back in The fourth key element in creating a successful restaurant is to diversify it is crucial for us to diversify as you can see from the last few months if you put all your eggs in one basket and In only focusing on dine in as a service only then the pandemic would completely wipe you up Then the political unrest in the world would completely wipe you out when the slow days There's no income coming in and that's the reason why you need to diversify Into different streams of revenue perhaps something like catering running different events or even doing a workshop or courses online would help you diversify and bring in different streams of Revenue when your dine-in service is being affected for an example check out this video right here where I interviewed Kyle and how he has made more than $50,000 just by selling courses on how to make cocktails and that in turn isn't an additional Income that he's able to add on top of his dine-in service So for your restaurant make sure that you guys create different streams of revenue and actually explore Where can you provide more? Value for your customers The fifth component in building a successful restaurant is the ace formula I'm sharing this formula with you based on my personal experience on building multiple different businesses And this is a foundation of what I personally follow that I've seen tons of Success what does the ace formula stand for it stands for a line connect and explode What does alignment mean a line means to identify your why identify your mission and identify your values So then that way you take a stand on What you stand for and in turn you are able to attract people who? Believe in the same thing whether it be customers or your team It is super crucial for you to identify that the second piece connect. What does connect mean?  Advertisements and how do we actually do marketing it is by stacking by stacking by stacking We don't rely on just one promotion or one stream of marketing We rely on all these different types of Marketing tactics in order for us to actually have exponential results for us Explode in revenue and explode in traction a lot of people fail in their business Because they focus on marketing tactics before connecting with their customers before aligning with them And that's why this ace formula is super powerful And this is also the formula that I've used to build our ice cream shop into a seven-shop chain Which recently got acquired so this stuff works make sure you guys jot down notes and follow the ace formula So there you go the five key components that sets apart the struggling restaurants versus the ones that actually bring in Profit every single month. I understand this video might be a little bit short and a little bit on the surface And that's the reason why we created this master class for you over an hour long Completely free where we dive into how do you build a successful restaurant? Make sure you guys sign up in the link below because that's where I'm going to be presenting it to you an hour long of Action-packed Content just for you. I really hope you enjoyed this video. Make sure you guys subscribe along the journey I'll see you guys in the next video