This is Chichou. Welcome to my channel. Now, what I would like to do is sort of start sharing some of the behind-the-scenes work that I do or some of the behind-the-scenes stuff that goes along with the math videos because if you've been following my channel, you know, there's sort of three areas where I'm creating math content. One of them is ASMR math. Another one is the language of mathematics, and the third one is math in real life. ASMR math is sort of going to be each module is going to be sort of completed on its own and it's going to complement everything that we're doing for the language of mathematics and math in real life because that's where I spent a lot of time and created a lot of content and I have a lot of material work that I still have to go through, right? So what I'd like to do is sort of start creating videos that are sort of acting as a glue, sort of bringing the content from math in real life and the language of mathematics together with ASMR math and one place I wanted to start was basically sort of let you know what my mindset is going to be what the content is that we're going to create in the next batch of videos for math and real life, which is sort of connected with the series that we're doing in the language of mathematics, which is series four, which is units and ratios, graphs and functions. Okay, and if this seems a little complicated, it really isn't. It's just giving a name to categorizing the content coming up and they're sort of all just going to be meshed together at some point, put together to create modules, to teach a certain concept of mathematics or certain branch if anybody wants to learn a certain type of mathematics to do whatever it is that they want to do, right? So the general gist of it is the language of mathematics is going to be the syntax of the language of math, you know, how you do things, right? The algorithm of mathematics, right? Steadying the language itself, the structure of it and how you work with it. Math in real life is going to be taking some of the syntax from the language of mathematics and applying in a real world and we've already done some of that stuff for math in real life. I haven't created too much content, but the content we've created that I really like and we've done some collaborations with a couple of friends of mine, actually two or three friends that I have. Two of the series that we started is the mathematics of art and design and the other one is the mathematics of farming, right? Growing your own food and we're going to do a whole bunch more stuff for math in real life, which is basically what this video is about, which is sort of giving you the behind the scenes thought process, how I'm going to go create the next, this is going to be two to four videos, I have the stuff laid out, but the way I do math in real life in the language of mathematics, I sort of, you know, grab my tripod, chalk, you know, my walking shoes and whatever supplies I need and I usually go for a nice long walks, listen to music and look for walls to do some mathematics on, right? So the content that's created for the language of mathematics and math in real life, whatever you've seen so far, which is sort of, I guess, I don't know, urban math, graffiti style math, however what you want to think about if you will have given it a few different types of names, right? But basically the way I've been doing the language of mathematics and math in real life, the content being created is sort of dependent on the type of walls that I find and how much, how much of the material I can cover in one shoot. Sometimes I, you know, I do multiple shoots of a certain concept I'm trying to get across and in general, if I get about 80% of what I've laid out to get across, get across in the video, I consider that to be done and I edit it and I load it up, okay? And the third type of math that we're doing is sort of ASMR math, which sort of, you know, grew out of me doing ASMR, getting exposed to ASMR and deciding to start creating videos and contribute to the community. Sort of that sort of meshing, sort of coming together with mathematics because I made, I think, a couple of videos or not even having made ASMR math videos where I started making just ASMR videos and some people commented saying they get anxiety, basically, when they study math. So it would be amazing if I could combine the ASMR and mathematics together and I started doing that and I love the content coming up. It's allowing me to get more than 80% of some of the ideas I want to get across that I'm, you know, that's the limit I'm putting myself for math and real life in the language of mathematics. I can sort of go on rants and ASMR math and sort of open up a little bit more and not worry about getting the core ideas across right away. I can, you know, let the imagination take over, right? And one of the main series playlists, one of the first modules I believe I'm going to put out for the mathematics content for all three of these sort of playlists that we're creating, is going to be trigonometry because I really, you know, like what we've done so far, I have the rest of it all laid out in my notes and, you know, it'd be a very nice module to put out because it is. Trigonometry is, as far as I see it, trigonometry and logs in grade 12. It's the one that's, you know, the killer, really. Trig seems to be the killer that takes a lot of people out of the game and it's, you know, slowed and introduced in grade 8, 9, 10. It sort of builds up in every level. Every year acts as a filter and, you know, people drop out because they can't wrap their head around trig, which in my opinion is the wrong way to teach it. I think if you're going to learn trig, the best way to do it is start from the highest level concept and then look into the details going down to a certain degree, right? Give the big picture and then look at the little parts of it, which is sort of the way I'm approaching the trig module that we're creating. So those are the three branches, the main playlists we have for the math content that I'm creating. Sort of a long-winded intro, I guess. But what I'd like to do right now is let you know what the next set of videos are going to be coming out and they're going to be for math and real life and they're connected to what we did for the last video for ASMR math, which is basically looking at time and trying to quantify time or the perspective of time or the way we experience time, right? So we talked a little bit about that and we created tables and looked at numbers, just absolute numbers, the ratios and just comparing the ratios and numbers and the multiples between them, right? So what I got laid out, sort of disconnected with that, is going to be, again, anywhere between two to four videos for math and real life, taking the concept of ratios and applying that to what we're doing, taking the information, the syntax of the language, how to work with ratios, units, fractions, what we're doing series four, and we're going to apply that in math and real life and take a look at the same concept, which is how we experience time, the perception of time. But instead of looking at it in table form, what we're going to do is we're going to create a couple of graphs and connect that up to one of the previous videos we did for the language of mathematics, which was how to break a line into pieces, right? So the first video coming out, that's linking up with the previous ASMR video, is going to be just talking about how, you know, we can take basically the columns we talked about in ASMR math and sort of put them on a number line. I think these are sort of the notes I make, you know, I have a few booklets, over the years I've got a stack of booklets where I sort of lay out the different lessons, I guess, or videos that I lay out and I sort of link everything up, right? And usually in general, I like to shoot things in batches. Sometimes they're solo videos, sometimes they're two videos connecting, sometimes they're three or four or five videos, sometimes it's a whole series that I, you know, take a whole summer to do over a few weeks where it links up. So it really depends, but I have a few booklets like this where I've laid out a lot of material. And this is just the one we're going to do in the next two to four videos, which is basically take the concept of time, link it up to how we broke a line into pieces, right? So we're going to take a line taking age from zero to, you know, we talked about 90, but we're going to take it up to 100 and then breaking that into 15 increments and seeing the multiple through that way, sort of visualizing what we talked about in ASMR math and talking about that concept, which is sort of introducing ratios. And then we're going to take that ratios and create a 2D graph, right, with an X and Y axis with, again, you know, we have the X axis and the Y axis and kicking that up and seeing how that links up with an exponential function, right? With kicking up and then taking a look at different forms of the graphs we can take depending on what variable we look at or what ratios we compare, right? And from there, you know, have laid out maybe taking it to a three-dimensional graph. I'm not sure if I'm going to do it where you're waiting the information, which connects up again to, you know, a line. We're going to do it as a scale system. We're not really going to break it into pieces, but we're going to do a pivot. So we're going to go into introducing positive and negative numbers, right? So, you know, I haven't laid out like this. I'm not sure how far we're going to go into this.  Well, we won't talk about probability in this, but this sort of links up with probability, which we'll do at some point later, right? So I like to leave things open-ended. So depending on, you know, the walkabout that I do, I've done a few walkabouts right now and it's just getting the feel for the see. You know, the weather is a little different. It's sunny here, it rains less than Vancouver, which is a good thing. But it's a windy city and I didn't realize Victoria was such a windy city. So I think what I'll have to do is when the wind dies down, the city is try to hit up the area. So I'm going to put a lot of miles on and, you know, walk around, bike around, drive around maybe and start locating some areas, some places where I see nice walls where we can do this work, right? So that's sort of to behind the scenes of what's going on, sort of the rhyme and reason of all the material coming up. I know some of the stuff may seem disjointed. Some of the stuff is disjointed. Some of the stuff is just, you know, random, is just being loaded on. And then there's some stuff that's really linked up with everything else, which sort of spack to a different concept, either touching base on math and real life or language and mathematics. So all three of those playlists are going to be sort of linking and slowly what we're going to do is create modules and put content together and, you know, complete modules with texts and exercises and solutions and all that jazz and have booklets and videos, you know, for each, either concept and math or for anything that we want to do with math and real life, right? Wherever you want to use mathematics in your life. So that's where I am right now with the mathematics videos. And we'll see how far we get. I'm not sure how fast this stuff is going to be loaded on. If I'm able to find, navigate the city fast, then the stuff will be coming faster and faster if I can get out there and shoot on multiple days in a row. And one other thing I should mention before I finish off this little behind the scenes aspect of it. For those of you following the ASMR math videos, the videos that I make when I go out looking for walls in the city and whatnot, usually I try to get in and out as fast as I can wherever it is that I'm doing the shoot. So the language of mathematics and math and real life videos in general are going to be a faster beat, faster pace than what's being produced for ASMR math. So, you know, it's just the way it's most likely going to work out. And I do like that fast pace because I can get as many ideas, as many concepts in as fast as I can. And I like the feel of going into a place and, you know, seeing what I can do, seeing how much information I can put on a wall, work in an area. And usually that requires, you know, a faster pace for me to work at to put the content out. And if you do, if there's anything in the language of mathematics and math and real life that you would like done in ASMR format, please let me know. I'll see what I can do about it because whatever I cover, some of the concepts are pretty important concepts. They're sort of glues, they're sort of binding that connects one branch of math to another, or one concept to another. If that glue is not there, it's hard to make the jump. So if the content and language of math and math and real life, I think it's important as well to cover in ASMR math, let me know and I'll try to get it done. Okay, I hope you enjoy. We'll see what we can get done. I'll see you guys in the next video. Bye for now.


I believe the Digital Security Challenge is a great opportunity for the member countries to come to IGCI, to know IGCI a little better, but most importantly, be able to exercise what they do on a daily basis, but in a safe environment where they can contribute with colleagues and learn a bit more on how to solve crimes and how to present it to a real court. This is the first time that we organize this kind of competition. This is the first time Interpol has a Digital Security Challenge and we want by this learn a bit more of the mechanism of this kind of exercise. We believe we are very successful for this first edition. We had much more participants that we are expecting to. We are able to set up a good number of groups, but we believe that you can do even better from the experience that we got from this first edition. And it's definitely our plan to keep doing these kinds of events. Interpol couldn't do it by itself. We definitely counted on several of our partners, some of our strategic partners and some of new partners that joined us specifically for this event. We contribute as police officers. We could input some information about how a real case works, how the officers usually investigate the crime, but of course the technical background, the setup of a cyber range, how to investigate in an entirely cyber environment using forensic tools. It's something that the private sector gave to us and also some universities who also helped.


So, I'm delighted again to be moderating the global economic outlook after what one has to agree was rather an unusual warm-up act. I am very disappointed, however, that for some reason they forgot to provide the bound, which I think we would have enjoyed very much. The previous speaker said three things with which I think we can all agree, that growth is very important, that jobs are very important, and trade needs to be free, and perceived, and I agree with this, to be fair. And I think those three points, growth, jobs, and the nature of the trading system are pretty important for our discussions now. We are meeting at a point in which I think for pretty well the first time, since January 2008, the WEF has a tendency to be a bit behind the times, so it didn't fully realize at that time just how bad it was going to be. But since so 10 years of extraordinarily global economic optimism, and about a widely shared and synchronized recovery, so we will discuss the nature of that recovery, the risks both in both directions to it, and some of the longer term opportunities and challenges it creates. To do so, if I may, introduce the panel very, very quickly, because you know I think everybody here, I have Christine Lagarde to my left. I think she's been a member of this panel for quite a long time. To her left, she's obviously the managing director of the International Monetary Fund. To her left is Mark Carney, who is to me the governor, but of course to others as is mainly the governor of the Bank of England, and the central banks have so many governors after all. To his left is Carrie Lam, who is the chief executive of Hong Kong, and to her left is Haruiko Koroda, governor of the Bank of Japan, who has actually been a friend of mine for 40 years. We met at Oxford. And to his left is Mary Callan-Erdos, whose chief executive officer of JP Morgan's asset and wealth management, whom I've met and shared panels with now on quite a few occasions, and I'm looking forward very much to this one. So let's start with the short-term economic outlook, and you've just recently at the IMF produced your update, which is wonderfully cheerful in every respect, and forecasting 3.9% growth for the world this year and next. So what could go wrong? Well let's celebrate what could go right for the moment, because we do have, we are in a sweet spot, as I've said, 3.9, 3.9, 2018, 2019, it's not bad. What I think is even more interesting is that about 120 countries, I've actually seen their growth increase last year, and we only have about one-fifth of the emerging and developing countries that are seeing their GDP on a per capita basis decline. So it's well spread out, and it's shared between advanced economies, emerging market economies, and the part of the world that I would certainly worry most about is Sub-Saharan Africa, where we have a combination of factors that lead to that lower income per capita. I think we should celebrate, we don't do that so often, and at the IMF we identify negative and downside risks in the most, but we should celebrate the policies that have been implemented by policymakers, and in particular by central bankers. I think one of the reasons we are in that sweet spot at the moment, it's a cyclical upswing, let's face it, but it's largely attributable to policies that have been implemented. Monetary accommodative policies that we had no idea about 10 years ago. Fiscal policies in many corners as well, which have been reasonably good, it's debatable what was done exactly, say, eight years ago, but in the main it's the result of good policies. What could go wrong, I'll mention three vulnerabilities as I see them. First of all, financial vulnerabilities, and while the U.S. tax reform certainly will have positive effects in the short term for the U.S. and for other countries around, it might also lead to serious risks, and we can discuss that later if you want. And that has an impact on the financial vulnerabilities, particularly given the high asset prices that we see around the world, and the easy financing that is still available. I would say that the second risk, which is short and medium term, but needs to be addressed in the short term, is the excessive inequalities that in many places are growing and creating those fractures that Klaus has identified as one of the themes of the World Economic Forum this year. And I would say that the third downside or risks that I see is the lack of international cooperation and the geopolitical risks that could be created as a result. I'll stop here, but happy to comment on any of those three. Well, these are huge points, and we will certainly come back to them. Let's turn to one of the central bankers who has produced these outcomes. Central bankers have certainly become controversial. They have been described by a well-known authority as the only game in town. And I think many of us feel that's probably truer of Japan than anywhere else. So that there were three arrows, and yours is certainly the arrow that's gone further, Mr. Koroda. So tell us about your remarkable monetary policy, its success, and how you're going to get out of it. Thank you, Martin. Let me first explain the current status of the Japanese economy. The economy is expanding moderately, supported by both domestic and external demand in a well-balanced manner. Real GDP has continued to grow for seven consecutive quarters, and the average growth rate during that period is close to 2%. Since Japan's potential growth rate at this moment is slightly less than 1%, 2% growth in the last seven quarters is really substantial improvement, and the unemployment rate has declined to less than 3%, actually 2.7%, which is even in the Japanese context is really full employment. And the current economic recovery has lasted for over 60 months, and this is the second longest boom in the post-war era. Going forward, Japan's economy is likely to continue its moderate expansion. So the virtual cycle from income to spending is expected to be maintained in both the corporate as well as household sector on the back of highly accommodative financial conditions. On the price front, the annual consumer price inflation excluding fresh food has been approaching 1%, but has remained slightly positive, excluding the effect of energy prices. In Japan, a contrast between strong economic recovery and relatively weak prices stand out as much as or even more than in the U.S. and Europe. However, we think that with the output gap further improving and labor market conditions steadily tightening, firms' price setting stance is expected to become gradually bullish and medium to long-term inflation expectations are projected to rise. So while consumer price inflation is likely to increase towards the price stability target of 2%, the deflationary mindset entrenched among people under prolonged deflation has been more tenacious than expected. Therefore, the Bank of Japan will continue to support Japan's economy and prices by pursuing powerful monetary easing with persistence under the so-called quantitative and qualitative monetary easing with yield curve control. There are various risks in the short to medium term, but from my perspective, they are mostly external, including some geopolitical risks. Can I just follow up on one question because it's one that is more generally discussed and it's an issue that you face in a way Mark Coney doesn't. So here you have an economy that is growing significantly above trend for a length, quite an extended period. You have unemployment at 2.7%, which is clearly very low and falling, and you announced when you became the government and the Bank of Japan together that you would hit an inflation target of 2%, which didn't seem, most people would say, if the economy was like this, you would have got there. So why is there no inflation? What do you think is going on and how does that fit with what we're seeing in many other areas like Eurozone and the United States as well? I think there are two factors behind rather slow response of prices and wages to strong economic growth. One is sort of universal common factor like globalization, new technologies, even Amazon effect and so on and so forth. All of them may make inflation rather subdued. This is universal factor. But second, Japan-specific factor is, as I just said in my initial remark, that is to say after 15-year-long deflation from 1998 through 2013, deflationary mindset, people expect the prices and wages do not rise. And this kind of mindset is rather strong and it's not so easy to eradicate this kind of mindset from Japanese household as well as companies. But there are some indications that wages are actually rising and some prices have already started to rise. And even the medium to long-term inflation expectations, which have been so weak in the last couple of years, are now slightly picking up. So there are many factors which made achieving 2% inflation target or price stability target so difficult and time-consuming. But I think we are finally close to the target. Okay. We hope so. You promised the government that you would deliver it. Mark Carney, you don't have the problem of low inflation at the moment. You do have the problem of managing monetary policy in the face of some strange decision that British people, God bless them, took in June 2016, one which probably those who have ever read me will realize I wasn't wildly enthusiastic about. You have started a tiny increase in interest rates, a step towards normalization. How do you perceive the monetary policy challenges for you and other central banks in similar situations ahead in this strange environment of strong growth but still generally contained inflation and where among the other things people are concerned about is that this normalization process might reveal more financial fragility than is now evident. So what is the path forward? In the next, what, 15 minutes should I answer that? You can do it in two minutes. To do it in two minutes, let me generalize and talk about the overall normalization challenge if I could. And if I could pick up on some of what we just heard, the nature of the expansion, the recovery as the IMF has just indicated, it's stronger, it's getting up to around 4%. It's broader, it's 90% of economy is growing faster than potential, so slack is being used up. And it's also healthier. I'll give you one example. In terms of the acceleration of G7 growth in the last year, 80%, 80% plus of that has been investment picking up and net trade picking up. So this is not a consumer boom led recovery, this acceleration. And all of those have consequences for normalization as you can anticipate. So the first slack being used up is the Phillips curve coming back. That's the question. In the face of bigger secular pressures, globalization technology as Crota San just mentioned, and all of us have been discussing over the course of this week and at other times. I think the crucial point is as you get towards full employment, as the output gap shifts, they call it a Phillips curve for a reason. And you start to see the convex element of the slope. So the pickup should be there or should begin, maybe not quite to historic degrees. So we have to be cautious, but should come. And if you look at wage behavior in the US, in the UK, some of the well, maybe I shouldn't speak for other economies, but you see that firming of wages, which once you adjust for poor productivity growth and some under employment, and up until very recently, a relatively low level of churn in the labor market, it starts to fit together at least directionally. So there's that aspect which is pushing up. The second element on pushing towards normalization, I should say, of policy. The second element is that healthier bit, more investment as part of the recovery. So investment picking up relative to savings.  Think on average advanced economies, about a two, two and a half percent drag from fiscal policy, 2010, 2014, now adding, depending on how you use multipliers, particularly for the US, but adding to growth, maybe half a percent or so on average across the G7, somewhere in that zone. But that's a big, big swing. So investment up, savings down, pushing up on the equilibrium rate of interest. The third element of that I'd highlight is just the stance of policy as a whole of, if I could use the term for these purposes, the G4. So the members of the G7 who were practicing quantitative easing, and if you look at the flow of net fiscal issuance minus what the bonds being taken out of the market by asset purchases, whether it was the BOJ or the ECB or the Bank of England or the Fed, we've shifted from, collectively, 2013 to 2017, basically no net flow or even bonds being taken out on net to this year on the order of magnitude of about a trillion dollars of net issuance based on announced plans and potentially that going up to a trillion five or higher next year. So that one would expect to push up on rates. So in the context of normalization, you have sort of real economy providing some support for it. You have some technical factors which play into it. You have a very tough judgment to be made around where is the equilibrium rate of interest, which has been very, very low and arguably should be raising a bit. You can make a judgment about direction, but probably not, certainly not with any precision about degree. And so that's going to require one has a sense of direction, I would say, as a whole for the central banks, a regime shift in terms of towards normalization, but a requirement for each of us to be quite prudent and patient as appropriate in making those judgments. Last thing I will say, and I'm not going to expand on unless you want, I mean, the UK is in a relatively unique situation in that over the course of the next year, as the negotiations with the EU 27 progress, we're going to find a lot more about what the supply capacity of the economy is in the near term, what the right level of the exchange rate should be, whether or not there are going to be tariff or other trade costs, and how all of this affects demand. And of course, it is all of those factors together, which determine the appropriate stance of monetary policy. Let me ask one follow up question, because before go to the I was trying to run out the clock. Yeah, I'll come back to that in a moment. You have had a central role through the Financial Stability Board in strengthening the global financial system. I get, you know, every time I write on this sort of hundreds and hundreds of comments below on the lines of these crazy central banks have already, and if they haven't already will soon have created the most unmanageable asset price bubble ever, the Omni bubble. It will burst probably when you, as and when you raise the rate, you collectively, and the crash will lead to total meltdown of, this sort of thing. On a scale of one to 10, how likely is that? Which way? You can choose.  I have two points. It's a composite probability. What's the probability there'll be an adjustment in asset prices? Yeah, that probability has gone up. If you look at corporate bond spreads, high yield spreads, they're at near all-time lows. Last seen, you know, just before LTCM, just before the global financial crisis in a rising rate environment, if indeed that is the right stance of policy, one would expect some adjustment there, other asset prices accordingly. I think a big question is not, you know, the market will find the right level for assets. The question is whether the core of the financial system is in a position that it's going to amplify those movements in an adverse way, and there'll be a feedback to the real economy. And on that component of the probability, I would put that as quite low because it's not just the regulators, it's the financial institutions represented here and across the world that have really transformed the liquidity and capital positions of the institutions. I'll give you very quick numbers if I may. Pre-crisis, the coverage of short-term liabilities for banks, the major banks, particularly in the UK, plus their access to central bank facilities was 10%. Now it's 110%. So they're fully covered about their own liquidity and their access to our liquidity on all their short-term wholesale liabilities. That is a huge move. Second figure, and people can debate about it, and we've had healthy debates on it, but the overall level of capital standards have gone up 10 times, but the actual levels of capital have gone up about five times for the major banks, apples to apples comparison in terms of capital. That's a huge shift. And it's the type of shift in the judgment of the Bank of England, and I'll be around if this judgment is tested, that would allow that system to withstand a shock of a disorderly Brexit, which is a big call, but we're confident in terms of the orders of magnitude because we've tested it. And then the last point is we're not all the way there to end in too big to fail, but we have made a huge amount of progress in terms of reshaping and the institutions reshaping their business lines, being able to separate their high street or their retail component of their banking, and adding on top of all that capital, big layers of bail-in-able debt. For the UK, and I'll stop with this, the major banks have 25% total loss absorbing capacity. So even if they go through that capital, there's another layer of securities that are held by institutional investors, some of whom represented in this room, who would find out that they're no longer debt holders but they're equity holders. So all of that provides real shock absorbing capacity for the core of the system. That is not to say that asset prices couldn't change, but it's to provide a measure of confidence that if and when they do, even if there are sharp changes, that the system isn't going to amplify that impact. I think this is incredibly important. So the conclusion I would draw, too, one is that all those commenters, and possibly there are one or two in the audience who are just worried that the whole world will fall apart in the next couple of years, because the policy normalization and asset price collapses should calm down and feel completely and utterly relaxed. And the second conclusion, which is completely personal, that if there are any politicians in the world who are telling us that the continually rising stock market is an indication of how successful they are, they might find the central banks again and again in the way. Let me turn to you, Carrie Lam. Tell us about how the world looks from your perspective, both in Hong Kong as a core part of the Asian economy, financial center, and if you can, about the rather large place with which you're closely connected into your north. Yes. Well, as a small and externally oriented economy, but at the same time, one of the freest and most competitive economies in the world, Hong Kong certainly benefits from the global economic recovery. So we are doing very well last year. We are projecting the full year growth for 2017 at no less than 3.7% in real terms, which is considerably higher than the 2% in the preceding year, that is 2016. Christine kept on reminding us that while the sun is out, fix the roof. I'm pleased to tell you that I have not discovered a leaking roof in Hong Kong yet, but similarly while the sun is out, it's always good to strengthen the foundation. Strengthening the foundation will enable Hong Kong to seize the many opportunities available to us arising from China's economic policy and also Asia, because Asia's growth now accounts for 60% of the GDP growth worldwide, and China alone is 30% contribution. So this session is about global economic situation. I will not be doing justice if I just talk about this small economy of Hong Kong. So if one looks at the China economic policy, which will be very relevant for Hong Kong, because President Xi Jinping said in his 19th Congress report that he will support, the central government will support Hong Kong being integrated in the national development strategy. Last year, President Xi delivered two very important speeches internationally. One, of course, is in this forum at the last year's Davos in January last year, but at that time, I suspect that the global economic recovery was not very certain. So President Xi was talking about leaders in various economies should show the joint responsibility to propel the economic growth globally. And then in November last year, which Christine and I were also there at the APAC meeting, CEO Summit. At that point in time, I think everybody was very assured that there is now very bright signs of economic recovery. So President Xi talked about that we should really seize the opportunity of a global economy in transition to accelerate the growth of Asia Pacific. So putting in that context, I try to summarize for distinguished guests the gist of the economic policy of China in my view, based on my reading of the two speeches, is how China will continue to uphold free trade and economic globalization that we should adapt to it and guide it and cushion its negative impact and deliver its benefits to all. Because if economic benefits are not shared by all, all economies will face one problem or the other. And it should be more reinvigorated, more inclusive and more sustainable. So with that in mind, since the world is now seeing some driving forces for growth, I feel we should take this opportunity to improve governance, to focus on more trade rules, to have more regulatory collaboration between central bankers and regulatory authorities, to put in place some social policies to address issues that Christine has reminded us also, poverty, income disparity, and lack of opportunities particularly for the young people. So I would just like to say that in this term of a government, I will embrace those values and although we do not practice state planning under the basic law, we are still a free capitalist economy, but we will embrace those values to put in place the necessary social policies to make timely investments in education, so enhance connectivity with the rest of the world, particularly with ASEAN. So last November we signed an FTA with ASEAN and we are negotiating several free trade agreements at this moment. So I remain very optimistic about the short to medium term future of Hong Kong, but as I said, since we are so externally oriented, please keep those tsunami away from us and then we will be safe. Thank you. May I, this is difficult, but I don't think we can avoid it. Just to ask one follow-up question and I'm going to also discuss this with Mary. President Trump, when he spoke here, I think the most substantive thing I think for this audience and this panel is what he said about trade policy and he said two quite interesting things, one of which was new and we'll come to that in a moment and one more traditional. He talked very explicitly and it's not new about countries, though he didn't name names, which are perceived to misbehave on intellectual property and countries that are pursuing industrial policies with government subsidies. I think he used that word and it's surely no great secret that when he says that he's thinking about China and there are those of us who are very concerned at the risk of serious trade conflict and we have of course at the beginning of this week seen relatively minor actions in this regard. From your perspective as running a very open economy, great trading place connected to China and of course to the US too, how concerned are people where you are that this actually might prove a very destructive development? How do you perceive that risk? Well of course as I mentioned being such an externally oriented economy and so dependent on free trade, we would not like to see any trade conflicts or trade wars so to speak, but trade deficit is not something that we are not used to. I remember at a session that I shared with President Trump at APAC, I gave him a figure, I said Mr President, the largest trade surplus that America has is with this small economy called Hong Kong at 31 billion US dollars a year and he seemed to be quite pleased with that and you didn't threaten him with protection? He did not mention his way, he did not mention his way just now so coming back to China as I mentioned from President Xi's discussions in the two speeches China is still a developing economy so it will evolve and build in those things that will make trade more transparent, fairer to everybody, but the fairness must be to everybody. If I may turn to you, Maria Does, I'm very much interested to see whether there's anything in the sort of overall picture of the world that has been presented by these very distinguished representatives of the official sector you disagree with and I would be particularly interested in your perspective from where you are on the impact of the tax reform which is obviously a very big issue and possibly on financial fragility as a representative, very very leading representative of the private financial sector. You know I can't help but sit here and we're all in this audience this is the last panel of the 2018 Davos event and when we think about where we've come from and what we just heard from all the major economies around the world I think we first and foremost have to thank Mr. and Mrs. Schwab for bringing us together to be committed to improving the state of the world because the vision to bring together not just policymakers in one area and central bankers and another and CEOs and another and philanthropists in another but all together to import and export the best thinking so that and especially after the great financial crisis how do we get back on a road where we don't have a boom and bust cycle and here we sit nine years later we could be in our second recession post then had we had the regular ups and downs and we have a global economy that is expanding almost universally and it is because you look at the people up here on stage and the other central bankers and policymakers around the world and you think to yourself how incredibly complicated this was to pull off nine years 11 trillion dollars put back into the system but not in an in an unthought through manner so that we are sitting here and we have these people who have worked tires tirelessly it is so incredibly complicated to have gotten this right and what you've done for all of us especially the investors of the world to be able to invest in that on behalf of all the pensioners around the world who will benefit from that as they move towards their retirement I cannot thank you enough for that and I can't also not thank you enough for giving all of these government jobs such a fabulous prestige and something that I know all of us now perhaps aspire to do even more so than in the past and we thank you for that well thank you fantastic thank you that's the nicest thing I've ever heard said about central bank so thank you all for coming Mark um well the all the official sector should feel extraordinarily happy I'm waiting for the but there is no but the the the and and therefore it is incumbent on us as investors to watch what they're doing and to not miss a beat and not sit here and think about the greatest worry in Davos that I've heard for the past several days is that there's not enough worry people are worried that people aren't worried and it's okay to not be worried it's okay as madam Lagarde said to celebrate where we are how we got here and to not miss a beat on investing so that people can benefit from that so that all the people around the world who can have access to public markets can be able to participate in the recovery of what has happened and to continue to do so and so the the opportunities we can talk about them in the US but they're really almost everywhere US Europe emerging economies being able to have participation in these companies taking these policies and putting them back to work and reinvesting in their own communities and in their own products and services is exactly what our job is to do. Do you want to say anything about the great tax cut and how it's going to impact the US and the world? You know the great tax cut is really the great tax normalization the US was just out of whack and so the fact that we got it done was a was a very important move for the US competitive nature. How that goes back into play I think is the thing that's so exciting for the rest of the world because what happens in the US can often be contagious for other companies that exist in a multinational fashion or just in their in their own nations and so the fact that the CEOs in the United States of America are not just doing one thing with those tax cuts but doing multiple things they're taking that money and they're helping the shareholders you see more buybacks you see more dividend payments they're helping the customers of the companies you will see much more M&A to get better products and services you see much more capex and then very importantly they're helping their employees so it's not just the one-time bonuses that we've heard about it is wage increases it is health care support it is being able to help them and and increase their retirement benefits so it's being able to help them to continue to participate that and then additionally companies are also taking that money and putting it back into their own philanthropic efforts in the communities that they serve in the job retraining and so if you can continue to see that across America that is what capitalism is all about I'm going to move on now to and if somebody wants to add on the shorter term risks to the longer term opportunity I think the IMF was the first to say we should fix our roofs while the sun shines I think it's as the the fund has been rather good on metaphors of various things of this kind in the in the last a few years so I like that and it's no longer the new mediocre which is nice so the big issue people are focused on is the feeble state of productivity growth some people seem to think tax cuts will be enough but what is what is your view Christine Lagarde of the of the agenda of fixing the roof in particular to to make sure the cyclical recovery and if clearly is a cyclical recovery will be turned into an uptick in trend growth across the world thank you Martin a couple of things that I would like to point out to one is the productivity numbers that we have are not satisfactory productivity prior to the financial crisis was about one percent which was not particularly high it's now down to 0.3 percent in the advanced economies so that needs to be addressed second point is the potential growth needs to be improved as well because while we are in a sweet spot at the moment it's not going to last forever and clearly many of the economies that are growing nicely at the moment are growing above potential which in and of itself presents risks so growth potential enhancing reforms which are going to be country specific I'm not going to give you a laundry list because it's going to be country specific each country has a roof of its of its own need to focus on those two aspects if I can just focus on productivity for a second and that will touch on something which I mentioned earlier on as one of the downside risk which is lack of international cooperation to address productivity or the lagging productivity that we have we need to invest in research development and facilitate innovation no question about that we need more trade rather than less trade because trade encourages competition fosters innovation and actually is conducive to that improved productivity and that takes me back to my concern about lack of international cooperation to have more trade better trade fair trade free trade reciprocal trade we need international cooperation and the concern I have at the moment is that we tend to see a degree of common denominator which is yes we all need that but it needs a reset we need to look at state-owned enterprise subsidies we need to look at sharing of intellectual property rights we need to look at constraints imposed here and there yes and the IMF agrees with all that but it needs to be looked at in a cooperative way and through international cooperation I think that should happen I was particularly pleased to hear that president mentioned WTO it's one of the forum in which those things can and should happen and hopefully through improvement there innovation that we've heard many of the leaders in the last few days focus on and identify as one of the areas where they want to invest we will improve that productivity final say while Mary I want to thank you so much for recognizing the efforts that we've we've we've endeavored I don't think that we've completed the job having growth is good improving productivity is good but making sure that the results of that growth are properly allocated are properly distributed and that the growing inequalities that we see in advanced economies many of them and stabilized but still very high in emerging market economies are a threat to sustainable growth I mean we've done multiple research on that I can't imagine why but we don't seem to have any real professional politicians on these panels so they can't respond can I just want one tiny follow-up I was very interested in this came up yesterday already but President Trump repeated it just now he said if I understand him correctly then under the right terms the United States would consider negotiating to re-enter the TPP as a multilateral endeavor I think that's the first time I've heard this so these are you would have to regard that in terms of the trade agenda we've been hearing so much about that's really rather remarkable and encouraging development wouldn't we yes I think I think I think we I think I agree with you I'm not sure it's multilateral in essence it's plurilateral rather but you know better can be the enemy or the best is the enemy of the good that that's I think that's a really good indication one one more area if I may on where international cooperation is also key and I think favored by many countries including the United States actually it's the fight against corruption we haven't talked much about it and I don't want to spend too much time on it but it's one area which combined with the fight against tax evasion and profit shifting and all the rest of it is actually vital to give more hope and encourage our economies Mark honey you I think wanted to say something on this yeah and I'll you want to speak structural so I'll try to concentrate there but I'll start with a cyclical point which is that we should be seeing a pickup in productivity as you can appreciate in particular as with capital deepening but another factor in the cyclical sense which leads to structural is that we have had up until very recently quite low job churn certainly in the United Kingdom and part of the diffusion process of new innovations in their application is people moving from learning at one firm and moving to a new firm or setting up a new company and so we should get that in particularly at a time of great innovation that's where you get the productivity pickup and as you as you're well aware and you've written on this we have a very long tail in most of our economies of quite substandard firms and I think that's one of the elements of it it then goes to sort of structural policies around and I know it's motherhood to say training but the elements that facilitate people to move set up new firms last point on structural which is around trade as people think I mean entirely agree with Christine's emphasis there and also the emphasis of sharing the gains of trade and one of the things I would suggest there could be some more thought given is the nature of the trade deals how they can immediately provide a dividend because it's the nature of the companies that benefit people have put on in this for over the recent years free trade for SMEs being an objective actually we've got the the network effects and the financing ability to change that all of a sudden that's a element of globalization that works for all brings productivity and brings instant diffusion but also trade for trade in services when you think about having a positive set of discussions around trade the lagged liberalization of services where most of our populations work it's not all tradeable I know but most of our populations work trying to bring that up to the level of liberalization that has been accomplished on goods at least directionally has that that bigger impact or has the potential to have that bigger impact anyone else want to add something on the structural before we move on thank you in the Japanese context the most significant challenge faced by the economy is demographic change working a working age population in Japan is shrinking every year by half a million to one million so since the economy is growing by two percent or so well above the gross potential not just unemployment rate has declined to two point seven percent but really significant labor shortage is is developing in almost every sector of the economy and now the non-manufacturing sector which was compared with the US non-manufacturing sector less efficient is now investing heavily in high-tech labor-saving technology and investment and also robotics and AI IoT or whatever in Japan because of absolute labor shortage not just business but also workers and trade union they are in favor of those new technologies and and labor-saving investment being made and that is really improving labor productivity significantly particularly in the non-manufacturing sector so in some sense this makes prices to respond rather slowly to the very strong economic growth but in the long run this improvement of labor productivity and gross potential would make the economy sustain relatively high gross in coming years with hopefully price stability target of two percent being achieved. Can I turn quickly and then because we're going to have to have time for at least three questions as I always say Mark Carney if I can ask you a risk we haven't discussed which is interested you a lot and I think others here which is that the private sector and I want to talk ask Marietta about this again very very briefly the the internalization of what I think you call the tragedy you call the tragedy of the horizon namely climate change and which most of the world still thinks is a big problem and and how do you think we're getting at is the private sector people here beginning to have some recognition that this has significant business implications. Short answer yes and I think and to make it tangible let me use one example which is the task force on climate financial disclosures which is something that was set up at the request of the G20 leaders it was run by the private sector chaired by Mike Bloomberg and the bottom line with the summit of President Macron in December the middle of December I'll just give you some numbers of the investor numbers that have signed up to this and with an expectation the climate disclosure is going to improve for those who they invest and whom they land the top 20 globally systemic banks eight of the 10 world's largest asset managers the major solvent wealth funds largest pension funds and the two major shareholder proxy firms Glass Lewis and ISS all signed up the radiant agencies the big four accounting firms etc 80 trillion eight zero 80 trillion dollars of balance sheet with an expectation that working with the users of capital we're going to get into a much better place in terms of the disclosure not just of static risk but of strategy and governance of those risks and hugely importantly the opportunities as well over time so that together whether you're a skeptic or a true believer a believer in technology or a denier we need a market in the transition to a lower carbon future and now the private sector and I salute the private sector on this because they were passed the baton by the the public sector and they're delivering and now the question is implementation and improvement Marius is that something you'd like to add very quickly so so exactly what Marx just said at the end I think is one of the most important things for the private sector you it doesn't matter whether you believe in climate change or not because while you could have a majority of this audience understanding and believing in the issues not it's not universally felt and therefore the investors of the world have to figure out how to do that it's about the prevention of what happens when you have all these things that are happening in the world that must be addressed irrespective of what you believe in so if you look at a city like Amsterdam its infrastructure is set to protect itself for a one in ten thousand year chance event new york city a one in 100 year and the problem is we keep having these one in 500 year events in the united states of america if you look at hurricane Katrina it costs the government 120 billion dollars to fix something that had 10 million dollars 10 million been spent by the army corps of engineers to figure out that there was 10 feet of wall that should have been expanded and built underneath we could have saved the 120 billion so you have to invest in infrastructure to protect yourself for things in the future i think what we're going to see from the u.s. government is the next phase of big investments in infrastructure asking for public private partnership and i think that's the next exciting wave of what's to come thank you that's very encouraging and it's certainly true that the dutch do really understand the danger of water so i'm going to take three questions they must be one sentence i'm very bad on timing say you are and you can address it to one person i probably won't be able to give more than one person opportunity to answer anyway does anybody want to ask is somebody right there yes please stand up and say who you are julio strada minister of finance of Guatemala just a question the productivity that's been growing down over the last 10 years isn't there an element of that the speed of urbanization has also slowed down and the social license needed for infrastructure projects has become much more complicated so that it's all an element it's not just innovation it's not just business productivity but social productivity and the capacity to agree on doing things which has slowed their capacity and speeds productivity but you said slowing urbanization is that what you said yes in developed economies yes it slowed down and the process i understand anybody else want to ask a question is there a woman here somewhere that i can't see ah yes i think there should be gender equality so let's go for you good afternoon juliana ferraino corrida de la sierra the world has changed do you think the the target a two percent for inflation is still realistic very good it's the two percent inflation target still realistic and okay and i apologize to all those i won't manage thank you paul sheet s and p global knowing what we know now about the lessons from the financial crisis are there any fundamental changes that you would like to see made in the macro economic policy framework is there any major things we still need to do to improve it this has the great advantage of being just the the envelope for the second question so we don't have much time so may i start with you christine legard the suggestion was made that productivity growth is slowing in part because of what some of the fundamental drivers in particularly urbanization is slowing i think that is actually very important so that we shouldn't be surprised that productivity growth is slowing emerging and developing countries on the other hand there is still a huge backlog of productivity enhancing investments they clearly can make because many of them still so relatively poor how does the imf see the balance here a bit like you just did oh have i answered the question dear still the answer no but i think i think urbanization when it comes to infrastructure projects the the lag time between the beginning of the project the financing the implementation and so on so forth that is clearly a slowing down factor i think this is not just it there's also population aging maybe not so much in the in some of the emerging market economies there is also you know delayed investment over the course of the last few years which certainly has not helped so the multiple factors that are actually affecting it but increased urbanization certainly is one of them can i just say one word of course on the two percent inflation because i think that that's really an interesting one that two percent inflation what was not decided randomly i think it was very carefully calculated on the basis of of multiple factors there are areas in the world was certainly from our perspective we consider that to arrive at an average two percent inflation targets or there about in a particular currency zone it might be actually appropriate for some of the countries in that zone to tolerate higher inflation than that two percent i'm going to ask the question about the inflation target of you governor corada since you've finally agreed it after as you said almost two decades of deflation and now it seems to be suggested by some that two percent is too low and really it should be four percent so you've got plenty of room for maneuver what is your view where you are now are you are are you actually trying to hit very hard a target that is already outdated i think two percent inflation target or price stability target there is still meaningful relevant and and useful for managing monetary policy a few points one as you may know consumer price index or whatever price indices is tend to overestimate real price development so if your inflation indicator shows one percent inflation but in reality there may be zero percent inflation so you must aim at achieving some positive inflation target rather than zero inflation second point is there continue to be some cyclical movement and when you need to implement accommodative expansionary monetary policy you have to have sort of policy room to do so and in order to do so i think you have to keep reasonable inflation target under which your policy rate would be some positive level and you can substantially reduce policy rate in case of need and so so so policy room monetary policy room is necessary third after many years of trial and experimentation almost all central banks in the developed world have adopted two percent inflation target and i think this has become a sort of global standard and and under which medium long-term exchange rate relationship between major currencies tend to be stable so all in all i think two percent inflation target or price stability target has been well established and although some economists are now arguing for higher inflation target or price level target or nominal gdb target and so on and so forth there may be a good reason to to consider but at this moment i think after 10 20 years of of experience among major central banks i think this two percent or so inflation target should better be maintained for price stability and sustainable economic growth well connie 30 seconds very quickly to the last question i think you know ben Bernanke's idea on temporary price level targeting in very clear circumstances and making it clear ex ante that that's a possibility is an interesting idea we've looked at it in the uk in the throws it's hard to do because of the quality of the data also it's tough to do in the middle of that circumstance um and obviously what ben and charlie evans previously had proposed is different than that um so it merits some consideration um in you know quiet seminars in good times it's an example of potentially fixing the roof while the sun sun shines the only point i would make if i may is i don't think the monetary policy in the macro policy tool was the mishandled element and i've been saying this now for 10 years the mishandled element was fiscal policy and we really have to go not it was used very effectively very early and it was withdrawn the stimulus was a draw much too soon and that created some very big problems now i have minus 10 seconds so i'm going to summarize our wonderful discussion in the following five unbelievably quick points one we have a wonderfully strong recovery which is certainly cyclical and we want to make structural second there is a consensus on this panel of those who are not responsible for all this uh um that the official sector has done a wonderful job in getting us here and since for this is a time to be generous i'm going to go along with that fully but of course in all other days when i write my um my columns i'm definitely not bound by that by that recognition but i think it is fair it could have been very much very much worse and in the interwar period it was three two three this is provides us with a serious opportunity to improve policy on a whole range of dimensions and uh christine legard particularly has emphasized some of the most important which include the distribution of the benefits of growth fourth the only thing to fear is the absence of fear itself well there are many other things to fear but the absence of fear always terrifies me particularly when it's in the markets um though we have been told very confidently by someone i always believe namely the governor of my own central bank that the financial sector itself is pretty strong and finally if we're thinking about fear beyond the financial sector and the possible meltdown of asset prices whatever that might do there are plenty of significant domestic political global geopolitical and joke global economic challenges um such as trade policy and beyond that we discuss climate so if anyone leaves this hall feeling the complete abstinence of fear then i suspect they're in the wrong job and in the wrong place and with that may i thank the panel for a wonderful discussion


Hello, everyone, and welcome to our talk, Galaxy Australia, the influx state of a national e-research service. I'm Gareth Price, service manager of Galaxy Australia, and I'm very excited to be able to present to the GCC once again, and this time with my co-host, Simon Gladman. Hi everyone, I'm Simon Gladman, and I'm the lead engineer of Galaxy Australia, and Gareth and I will be presenting this talk together. Okay, I'd like to set the scene for you. Galaxy Australia has been in operation since 2018. It grew from pockets of regional funding to be funded, supported, and really championed as the national service for mature life science analytics. And this was achieved through a number of mechanisms that I want to talk about. A close working relationship with Galaxy Project, membership with the use Galaxy Dot Star ecosystem, and quite frankly, all our close global friends in the Galaxy community, and also locally, a lot of hard work by the team. To make the service something researchers could trust in and in particular could recommend to their colleagues and students to come and use. Now, thanks to planning, funding, and successes, we have secured a nationally funded and ongoing host for Galaxy Australia at the Australian Academic and Research Network, otherwise known as ARNE. This talk is going to go through some of the reasons why and the planning that's taken us along to this decision. So, what do we know about our users? Well, the first and most obvious thing is the number of users is growing and the number of jobs is growing. But graphs like this don't really tell the whole story. What we know that was important to our users, well, service up time, seems obvious, but when you get tickets in, anytime you go down, asking why you're down, you know just in fact how important the service is to your users. We know our users increasingly want to be able to run larger and more complex jobs and have the capacity to run more jobs concurrently. We know our users are asking for a greater range of tools and workflows tailored for their research. And the talk after this by Johan is going to show you how we're engaging with our local research communities in Australia, so please do stay on for that. We know our users want more references. And thanks to Galaxy Australia's policy of hosting data, our users want easy mechanisms to get data in and out. And Newell, part of our Galaxy Australia team, has a lightning talk coming up on Galaxy Cloud Store integration, linking national resources to secure data transfers between our services. To find that on theskage.com, please just search for Galaxy Cloud Store. What was important to us was the operators of the National Galaxy Service. Well, many times it was the same thing that was important to our users, that's uptime and in our case with minimal constant intervention. Failover landing pages and failover responses if and when the service does go down. Clear and reproducible actions so the team knows how to respond on a daily basis. And again, aligning with our users because they're the ones that we work for, the capacity to give them a greater job size and the capacity to allow them to run more jobs concurrently. And really, quite frankly, what we want is a lot less bus factor and a lot less sleepless nights. So we did ask ourselves, when was enough enough? And that was when we acknowledged our historical design slash baggage in our operation of Galaxy Australia. Our current infrastructure at the time, which was excellent, but its infrastructure and our goals just no longer aligned in enabling a national service. That our staff growth meant that no one really understood implicitly how Galaxy was built and operated anymore and that we needed to address that. And that our original setup had evolved over time with gaffer tape and rubber bands. And that was enough enough. What we needed at first was maybe an intelligent design. We thought better about that. What we needed to do was evolve Galaxy Australia. So Simon's going to take over from this point and describe some of that journey. And I'll be back at the end with a couple of slides. For a handover to Simon, I just do want to point out that unlike the graphic on the bottom right there, our team does tend to wear more clothes than that as they operate Galaxy Australia. Thank you. Thanks, Gareth. And then in September and October of 2020, Galaxy Australia had a series of significant outages. Most of these were caused by the massive extra demand that would have undergone in the previous six months. But some of it was also caused by the fact that we were running on over-subscribed cloud nodes. And we had some very noisy neighbors on those cloud nodes. And we also had a few back-end storage issues that were concerning us. And then through some negotiation between the Australian Biocommons and the Pozzi Supercomputing Centre, we were given an opportunity to move our service to a non-oversubscribed cloud. And so we decided to take that opportunity up. And then we also thought this would be a really good opportunity to re-architect our system, to move away from our gaffer taped together, evolved Galaxy service into one that we think would better handle a larger demand and also to stand the test of time. And so the way we did this was we decided to systematically look at the architecture of what a Galaxy service would look like. And then we wanted to redesign ours with all of this information in mind. And we wanted to make this entire system completely reproducible. We wanted to use best practices like Terraform and Ansible and GitHub. And we really wanted to use all of the Galaxy community Ansible roles for as much of our system as possible. And the reason we wanted to do this was so that if we had staff changes, new staff could come into our project. They could do the Galaxy administrator training, which uses all the Galaxy community roles. And then they'd be able to transition onto our production system very, very easily. And we also took this opportunity to completely automate all of our tool installation, all of our tool updating, and all of our tool testing. And Catherine Bromhead has a really nice poster on this in Thursday's poster session. And so we did all of this work and we completed the entire move of Galaxy Australia from Brisbane to Perth in six weeks. But how do we actually go about doing this? Well, the first thing we did was we spoke to all the other Galaxy admins we could find. We talked to usegalaxy.org admins in Nate and Martin, et cetera, and their teams and talked to them about how they operate their Galaxy server. And then we talked to Galaxy Europe. We spoke to Björn and Jim Moro and Helena and asked them about how they built their system and some of the issues they were having with it. And just thought about how other people's experiences could relate to ours.  We wanted to separate out the virtual machines that we had all these things running on. We wanted to show you what a large Galaxy service actually looks like from a functional point of view. So we had our Galaxy application, our Q controllers, some Pulsar nodes, our CVMFS references, our email service, database and backups of the database, storage controllers, and how it all linked together and how it all fit. And then we sat down and we looked at what happens to all of these different components when they're booted and how do they affect one another. And through this, we managed to find out what our bottlenecks were and most of our bottlenecks were concerned with our storage controllers. And the fact that we had everything was trying to contact the storage controller at the same time. And so the loads were spiking and especially when this is on oversubscribed cloud nodes, we had a problem. And so we took all of this information and we redesigned our architecture. So the first thing we did was we split all of our service up into different machines so that we could have one for tools and references, one for user data and one for job working directories. And then basically built everything up. Every virtual machine in our new service is completely put together using Terraform, Ansible, and everything is automated using Jenkins. All of their Ansible scripts are stored in a GitHub repository at newsgalaxy-iu infrastructure if anyone's interested in looking at it. And all of the changes that we make are made via pull requests to our Ansible playbooks in our GitHub repository. We don't let anybody change the live machines anymore because that's just the path of not remembering what happened.  We had about 120 to 150 terabytes of user data sitting in our old location and we wanted to know did we have to move it all? It would take a long time to move all the way across the country. And so after it's a bit of investigation, we came up with the fact that we probably really need to move the last two weeks of user data and our data libraries. And why is that? Well, we did some analysis and it looks like at about 99 percent. Our histories have worked on for about two weeks and then they're rarely accessed after that. But we also found that data libraries are used quite regularly and so we probably should move all the data associated with those. But we also kept an ongoing NFS connection back through our old user data for everything else so that users could still log on and see all the old data, but all the new data and all the most recent data would be local to our new Galaxy Service in Perth. And so we moved our Galaxy Service from Brisbane to Perth last year in December. Got it all up and running and it worked really, really well. And then as Gareth alluded to earlier, our system in Melbourne hosted by Arnett is nearly ready to go and when as soon as it is, we will be moving our service from Perth over to Melbourne using exactly the same process that we use to move from Brisbane to Perth. And we hope that things will go just as smooth and we plan on making this move immediately after this conference, so very soon. Over the last six months and in the coming six months, we also will be making some large improvements to our Pulsar network. We've been given access to some significant compute resource in terms of remote compute. And so we've turned them into Pulsar nodes that we've added into our network. We've got a new one in Canberra. We also have large high-memory machines located in Melbourne and in Brisbane that we're adding into our Pulsar network. So this will help us support bigger jobs, more jobs and hopefully help future-proof our service a bit. One of the really important lessons that we've experienced over the last 12 months is what do we do when systems become unavailable for long periods of time? We really need to meet our user expectations of availability. But what do we do when we have significant hardware failures, when building services fail, like the power of the cooling system fails and it's going to be out for a long period of time or even if it's a long planned outage somewhere, what do we do? So we've thought about this and we've decided we're going to build a disaster recovery site. We're going to make one of our Pulsar sites dual-purpose. Normally it'll be a Pulsar node and then when we press the big red panic button it will turn itself into a backup Galaxy server which we can switch to. And we're going to accomplish this by some replications of the database and the recent user data, et cetera and we'll have a semi-automatic failover. If you're interested in this subject then please go and have a look at Nick's poster which will be on Thursday. And so hopefully by the end of this year our Galaxy servers will look something like this. We'll have our head node located in Melbourne hosted by Arnett with our main worker nodes and our main storage and we'll also have some Pulsar nodes in Melbourne, another Pulsar node over in Perth, our backup site in Queensland as well as some high memory Pulsars. And now I'd like to hand back to Gareth who will talk a little bit about connections to some national storage and then to wrap up. Thank you. Thank you Simon and it's over to me to wrap up our presentation with one final topic and that is the connections that Galaxy Australia is making to other Australian research infrastructure. So we do know that data movement has become increasingly more complex as our users become more ambitious in their own political demands they're bringing more data to the service they're generating more results and they want to bring that in easily and export it easily. To that end, Australia has a nationally funded research network in Arnett which provides one terabyte of data storage per person, a researcher in their cloud offering cloud store. So we in Galaxy Australia wanted to tap into this and so we did. We built, thanks to the hard work of Newn, two tools for Galaxy, an import from cloud store and ascend data from cloud store to cloud store option. These move data securely through authentication with password management and there's a talk here at GCC this year one of the lightning talks Newn's put together Galaxy cloud store integration which is linked to national resources. So I do encourage you to chase that down if you want to hear just a little bit more about our service. And with that, it remains for me to thank the Galaxy Australia team that's made our service so successful. So outside of Simon and myself that is Igor, Nick, Catherine, Newn, Michael and Anna and beyond the core Galaxy team we have so many things to have. So we've got a lot of comments with specific mentions there on this screen. There's the greatest staff at Cusin for Melbourne by Informatics, funding and resources provided by AIDC, Pausie, Arnett, Galaxy Project and via platforms Australia and funding from the Queensland Government. So thanks to all those partners for making Galaxy Australia the success story it is. And with that, I'll close and we welcome


All right, hopefully we cleared up the exhalation from last time except now I don't have my camera working for some reason. Why is that? Ay baka yan ito? There you go. All right. Just doing some housekeeping at my end and then I think this is the last stage of Plague Tale Innocence. So it's the first it is the first Plague Tale I understand there's, I'm not sure kung DLC ba yung requiem or parang two, I thought it was two but then some people were mentioning it was uh, it was oh no no it's super laggy again it was fine kanina stop no blaza wait lemme try to seem super laggy again through OBS but I literally just tried this and it was okay naman wait sa what if I turn my camera oh just running through different settings yesterday's oh it is the camera, hindi kaya yung ano there you go so I turned my camera off and the frame rate is a lot smoother okay I gotta turn the this is parang it's like the final stage na or close to the final stage okay yesterday ah so that's weird turned off my camera and now the stream is a lot better I can hold the rat at this point so I'm assuming it's very close it's changed a lot since last time which means mother is too that bastard's gonna get a surprise first we have to find the others I sit most games as you level up and you fill out the power wheel power power stats and everything wad ko alam mo na na you're reaching the end what's that shaking it's the rats so they're the ones who destroyed everything look at the ground hang on guys let me just check top Matthew this is plague tale in a sense it does have a very creepy vibe of setting oh why not ah because there was fire there because we have the rats because we have the rats because we have the rats because the frame rate on my end is fine because the pH it is a pretty good game so I enjoyed my time I think that time is coming to an end soon reaching the climax did you like requiem I know there's a sequel plague tale requiem same character as Yamisha and see you go I actually got this one plague tale in a sense a long time ago sa run on the way here I can tone down the in game sound should be better alright I guess we can be a bit stealthy about it basically just want to extinguish everything okay let's clear out everybody then I wonder what it is I have the camera on the frame rate stop stop crime lab gaming I turn on some lights this game especially when the rats come it does get a bit creepy let me just go around gathering your resources all of the extinguishing I'm doing I'm gonna stop my crafting supplies so for those of you tuning in you'll notice walang camera you can't see me because I have traced the problem of the low frame rate if you watched last yesterday's stream sobrang janky sobrang the frame rates were really really low in fact parang nag freeze nag freeze na lang sya at one point parang steady na lang sya like what the game wasn't even displaying anymore it's like a static image but when I turned off the dve10 the camera that I used to capture me my image okay na sya so I've turned it off for now figure it out later I am using for I don't know if there's anything to do with it I am using the indeed virtual green screen so I don't have a green screen behind me pero it will remove the background for me actually it's working pretty well tapos hindi naman siya gpu but first of all I'm using a 3080 so it should still be pretty good and also the game itself doesn't lag on my end even okay okay two guards one each this is have a helmet can't see parang meron ah de wala okay alright tag and bag o ya niya magnayip the web cam seems to be the reason why the frame rates of last night stream were so bad so I've turned it off for now can you say the average FAS while playing I think so let me pull up the g4's experience and it's my frame rate now performant FPS ah you know I can see it I can see the overlay on my screen but parang it's not throwing up in the OBS stream lemme try to move it around a bit I can just read it out right now it's at 87 so this is at 4k parang you can't see it wonder why 85, 86 I'm not moving lemme focus a little bit on the game I do want to rampage through it's kinda nice parang it's not throwing up oh running out of rock parang the NVIDIA counter isn't displaying when I stream although it's at 83 now oh wow very enforcement top of heart for sugar I see you to join us yeah for those just joining in now seems like my camera was the one that was causing the slow down in the frame rate quite sure why but I'll figure it out later right now we're just enjoying the game it's about to end yeah relax I'm just trying to get all the resources possible gather up some resources first anyway if you guys are watching my stream you probably already know what I look like and it's no great loss with the camera off it's a little annoying I just want to do one more thing I need to troubleshoot gather on to troubleshooting weird though I'll break it down swine you see Rodric take cover we'll handle them Hugo have fun I'll hit that one with running out of escape I'll hit that guy with a rock I'm not gaming looks like it's not happen to you I promise Rodric are you with us to hell and back although this was the inferno like which circle of hell would this be oh it's like troubleshooting I need to figure it out so I need to extinguish get out of the way Rodric at Richard Frank Club any thoughts on the last of us game and show I really enjoyed the last of us one I have not played the show I have not watched yet I think the earlier views have been promising pero parang pilot our first episode parang atalapos it's my father I'll probably get around to watching it this must be the exit personally though like when I watch at least I usually wait until the season is over so if I want to binge I can like I can do 2-3 episodes straight so any show I watch usually I usually wait matapos yung season the one I really like recently like that's a good series and again I waited ato kaya nabiten ako waiting for season 2 medyap matagal pa ata yung season 2 not bad 3 rocks I mean for the cost of 3 rocks thank you yes thank you and good ride roads to cathedral we're on the right track it's the only way to the cathedral we must find a way to cross hey it's I'm using a 3080 it is kind of fun it is kind of fun okay we're going through the back route hang on medisek to take off my headset for a bit although personally I was expecting a bit more oh okay in dami mga sneaky pathways dito like into the front route okay time to upgrade instruments ammunition is already pretty good that's a lot of resources though maybe let's hold off on that one the chain you shouldn't this place I know it all too well what is it rodrick what up definitely very immersive experience I knew it rodrick what's going on where are you going relax rodrick it can't be it's nothing left did they burn your house down was my father's forge where I grew up it's where I know how you feel but you're still alive and your roots they can never take that away from you you're right I know who I am come on we have to save your mother you'll see mommy's lovely we'll go together and we'll find another castle I wonder if that's like the sad leveling up or I'm thinking that's too much I mean that's like RPG thinking in a non-RPG game don't worry about me kid not yet gotta go to the hill whole emotional thing again speed it up rodrick see what happens here please feel very bad about it strive to better the chain you shouldn't this place I know it all too well what is it rodrick so we can't take out those archers for some reason even though they seem to be within range I knew it rodrick what's going on where are you going let's go it can't be it's nothing left did they burn your house down sorry bro but you're still alive and your roots they can never take that away from you we'll get another castle you'll see mommy's lovely we'll go together and we'll find another castle the framerate counter is not showing but it's around 80 now average FPS rodrick yo get your shirt together man we have to go back to get him come on come on rodrick man up boy rodrick if we push it to the port callus it will give us cover yugo will be protected behind it leave it amicia stay back with your brother I'm pushing I'll be fine if you want to help keep an eye out for guards alright let's do this don't worry about me kid good rodrick rodrick come on man that's what you get for not paying attention high hardware sugar fine club that kind of sucks why spoil oh man we have to go through it all again like legit we have to go through the whole alright that's too much that's too much for one night I'll redo it some other time so okay camera I do actually have to do some other work so thanks so much for watching guys I'm glad we found the main cause of the trouble um I'll have to figure out like how to get the webcam back on without it interfering with game performance but um almost almost there um alright so have a good day have a good night I'm actually going to go update now the price sheet for price watch and then I have to go look at a video that Ren edited that hopefully we will release tomorrow yeah so have a good night thanks so much for watching and stay safe alright very sugar fine club Rafael is back in town but he's been quite busy like I don't even know when his next video is coming out but definitely we should set aside some time for that actually next week we might be having a game night in the shop but like um non-digital games like board games or something um yeah may my brother also don't really play a lot I wonder if that's a brother thing alright good night guys see ya