Cheers. A presentation of TFF. The Tom O'Brien Show is produced every business day. Tom takes your phone calls toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER>. Let's go to Andy in Boulder, Colorado. Hey, Andy, what's going on, brother? How much you tell how you've been? I'm great, man. It's all pretty good. Hey, congratulations on the grand baby. Yes, thank you. I know. Tommy just sent me a picture. I mean, it's gorgeous out right now. He just was taking them out for his first walk. He's growling and prowling already. Now, Tom O'Brien. Folks, this is Larry Pesavento setting in for the master himself, Tom O'Brien, and this happens to be the Chinese year of the tiger. So I'm sure we'll be hearing his lovely growl for another year and many years thereafter.  I think that's what they refer to him as. Anyway, what I thought I would do today, because you folks here listen to the stocks all the time, is to show you what's happening across the pond over there in England and Germany. And I posted a chart for the FTSE and also for the DAX. And as you can see, they also had a big drop down and been rallying for the last few days.  And that's the way it should be. Each market is separately, and that's how it should be viewed. But let me tell you a little story. About 10 years ago, there was a man there in Clearwater, Florida named Tom O'Brien, and I had been doing his radio show for about four years. And Tom coined the phrase, the phrase, King dollar, when the dollar was trading at 73. And from 73, it went all the way up to, I believe, 150, as I recall, something like that. Some ridiculous number. So we're going to be talking about the King dollar today, because it's got a very interesting picture that's looking at it. I want you to see here, I'm going to put it into the chart room, so you folks will be able to take a look at it. And as soon as I can find it, which will be hopefully some time in each of our lifetimes. Here's where we are today, folks. This was as of last night. As you can see here, we had a big double top up in here.  But folks, let me see, double tops are there to be broken, and this one was broken very dramatically. I mean, it is told everybody that, look, look at me, I want to go a whole lot higher. And this next chart, you're going to see where the US dollar is going. Now, the pattern that you're looking at here is known as the AB equals CD pattern. This was formulated by H.M. Gartley way back in the 1920s, but Ben Mendel brought it out and showed that the fractal that he used to discover all the things that happened in nature and stuff is based on this seed pattern, which is known as the ABCD pattern. As you can see in the blue turquoise triangles there, that's nothing more than another ABCD triangle. It's also known as the lightning boat pattern, but it really helps describe where things are going. You can see we're looking at at least 98.23 in this US dollar index, which, you know, folks, you stop and think about it. The euro is 53% of the dollar index. So if the dollar index goes up, it means that the euro must go down, and that's exactly what is happening. If we take a look at the dollar here, get it up here so we can look at it on a little bit longer time frame, and I'll bring this up to you here for just a second here. There it is right here. Now take a look at the dollar going back over the last two years. You're going to see that we came all the way down to 89.40, and now we're heading to that number we just looked at on the daily, which is 98.29. At that point, you're going to be reaching a .618 Fibonacci number. We use a lot of our technical analysis based on these numbers because we see them act not all the time, but, you know, better than 65% of the time they help us out on where markets should go, and this one certainly looks like it wants to go at least to 61%, and that's up another full handle in the dollar index, which means the euro would be dropping another few handles, and that's not very good for the euro, but it is also good for people that happen to be looking to be buying gold because you're going to be buying gold a whole lot cheaper because as the dollar index goes up, gold goes down, and that's what we've been seeing here over these last few days. Now I want to give a quick little summary here on the euro because this is what we're looking at here in the euro. As you look at the US dollar going up, if you'll take a look at the euro, you can see that the euro is heading down. Now with the US dollar going up, it means we buy things in other countries cheaper because we get good dollars and we're buying them with the things like the British pound has been dropping, the euro has been dropping, that means we can buy things from Europe and also from Britain to tell us that prices are going down, so it's a good switch for us. How long that lasts? We don't know, but just take a look at this euro over the last two years, from 2020, and you'll notice that big drop during that time of the COVID where it went from February, those strong three weeks down into February when COVID was starting. Well, after that started, you can see the way it went all the way up to 120 and now the euro is down at, it's around 112 right now, but folks, it looks like it's heading to 106. That's a perfect Gartley pattern, also known as Benoit Mendelbrot's seed formula, the AB equals CD, and that should come in sometime around April or May, maybe even a little bit later, a little bit sooner. The timing is not important. The thing is the price level that we're looking at here should bring it down to that level. Now, let's get back to the gold market. If we take a look at gold and what we're going to do now is we're going to look at gold on a, just a second here, we'll get it up right here for you. And we're also going to look at the silver market too because silver's down almost a dollar an ounce today down around 22. That's $2.50 from where it was just the other day. Now, here is the price of gold, as you can see here as we get this up here to take a look at it. You'll notice here that we were looking for the price of gold atop somewhere in that 18.50 level, and it topped at 18.54, the 78% level, one of the Fibonacci numbers, the square root of 618, came in exactly at 19.54. Excuse me, try that again, 18.54. We're now trading $60 a barrel. Late in the day for me, folks, I'm a futures and forex trader. It's down over $60 a barrel down at the, and we've broken the old support there at 1800. We're down to 17.92. If we are correct on this, I think you're going to be able to buy gold at one heck of a good price somewhere between 17.18 and 16.74. One of those two numbers is what we're watching for. If you'll notice, look at the top of this chart here, when we hit 18.79. You see that big lightning bolt pattern again? In other words, Mandelbrot's ABCD. There it is right there. The exact high, folks, was 18.79. You can't make this up. And what did it do? It came all the way back down. It dropped from 18.79 all the way down. $150 lower, $125 lower to 17.50. Then we rallied up, and that tells us, hold on one second, I have to answer a question, and we'll be right back here. It gives us an ABCD. It should take us down to 17.18. We'll stop and think. 17.18, folks, is only $80 from where we are right now. That's it one day. We'll be right back.<PHONE_NUMBER>. Are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio? Tom O'Brien is here to help. Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years. A frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC, Tom O'Brien founded TFNN over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you. Tom's Daily Market Newsletter, Market Insights, is published every morning when the market's open to give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed. These newsletters are packed full of Tom's advanced technical analysis and are geared to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio. Get Tom O'Brien's newsletter, Market Insights today, and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk-free with our money-back guarantee at TFNN.com. TFNN, educating investors. The TAS Profile Scanner is the premier market-profile-based scanner. Powered by its acclaimed TAS proprietary algorithms, this feature-rich scanner instantly filters over 2,500-plus global financial markets, such as stocks, ETFs, commodities, futures, and forex. This powerful suite of tools leverages instant trade filtering and strategy formulation to show you emerging trades before they happen.  Level the playing field with the TAS Profile Scanner, which you can find under the Services tab at TFNN.com. Sign up today! Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, and you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis, and it's not just dry, tedious text, either. TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV, live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern. For free, each host is an experienced trader to take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be. TFNN, educating investors.<PHONE_NUMBER> Okay, folks, we're back. This is Larry Pesevento setting in for Tom O'Brien today. And what I'd like to do is we were talking about gold, and then I posted the chart of silver, showing you the daily chart much, much weaker than gold. Can't even take out the previous month's high at any particular time. But the next chart really was the one that made us really get sort of bearish on the gold and then also on the silver. Those of you that like head and shoulders patterns, you'll notice here that we have the left shoulder, the head and the right shoulder.  And there are two factors that must be there. The first is the distance in time between the left shoulder and the head and the head and the right shoulder should be very, very close to being equal. And then also the right shoulder, where we are currently, should be lower than the left shoulder or equal. It cannot be higher. If it's higher, it's not a head and shoulders pattern. As you can see on this one, it was just a tiny bit lower than it was back in September and it was hitting a perfect 1.618 expansion at 2475 and the high on that day three days ago was 2475. We're now looking at a $22 handle. That's a $10,000 drop in two days. So that also tells us there's a good chance that gold has a chance to drop even further and some great buying opportunities come in. Now, someone has just asked a question, one of Tom's listeners and that is have I ever seen situations like we're seeing in the stock market before and the answer is yes and I'll go through with that right now to try to answer the question. If we look what happened in the stock market over these last few days, if you'll remember here, we had this big drop in the Dow Jones industrial average. I'm going to bring it up here so you'll be able to see that this is an hourly chart so it covers at least eight or nine days and you'll notice here the last few days we've completed this thunderbolt pattern again. There it is exactly where it should be at 34,700 and what happened was look at this the market came all the way back down but something even more important has happened folks. This is what's really important from my perspective because the gentleman asked have I ever seen this again before and I certainly have and what I'd like to do is to try to share it with you of what I saw before and this happened to go way back into 1987 going into October the second when I saw that and that was two weeks of course before we had the greatest buying opportunity of all time which was also known as the big crash because even if the market breaks here sometime in the near future we're going to be able to see it that it's able to really able to do it but look what's so important here today folks and this is what the gentleman asked if you look at this I understand that Tesla's down 10% today but look at this we made the first ABCD and we came down last night and we tested it again today folks we go below 33,400 by Friday oh my god don't be long and let me show you why if you believe anything about what Mandelbrot did and believe me you don't get to be as smart as Mandelbrot without having a whole lot of followers and so what you have to look for and what you've really got to be afraid of is what you're looking at here very very shortly and that's here is the Dow Jones industrial average and what we're going to do here is we're going to look at this pattern that we've seen many times before and there it is the first one you see the ABCD pattern telling you it's a top and look at the ABCD pattern here and look where we're going to be if we start closing down here below 33,600 33,250 by tomorrow you're looking at a drop of 3,000 points in the Dow Jones industrial average sometime in the next two weeks folks that's 10% the markets are acting stop and think today folks the Dow was down 400 points last night it rallied 600 points that's 1,000 then it dropped 600 right then it went up 200 that's an 18 point swing in the Dow Jones industrial average people don't like that kind of stuff they want to buy it watch it quietly go up quietly go down these are volatile markets what is that volatile market telling you get out of dodge unless you know what you're doing it's not for the faint of heart so be careful anything below 33,250 you're going to be able to buy it 10% lower if this is correct and believe me you don't want to fade it for two reasons first of all the rally that occurred took three days a three day rally in what is called a bear market and then reverses not a good thing but remember I'm a technician so maybe it doesn't work but the key is like on that other chart it goes below 33,250 that's the key to what you're looking at I haven't checked to see where it is one of our friends in the den will tell us where the Dow is where is the Dow Jones trading right now folks around 34,000 probably where is the Dow index itself 34,000 okay well you've got another 600 or 700 points to really be afraid of because it gets below 33 shut the front door and raise the rent it's going to be a very good thing to look at that's when it gets really really crazy and we don't like crazy we like things that are really easy to do and that's why the danger signals are out on this we see it happening in some of these commodity markets also it's really amazing look what happened here to the E-mini S&P here just the other day here this was happening on the 24th that was just a couple of days ago we had the big drop and that 382 retracement the high that day should have been 4440 and guess what that high was that day folks 4440 and it's trading down below 4320 right now so there again you got a market that is telling you be really careful from an old movie you know be afraid be very afraid and I'm just saying these patterns don't work all the time but they work more times and they fail and that's why you really want to pay close attention to them because it's very important and let me explain to you why the statistics behind this are so very important when we had the first drop in that S&P which was down on the 24th I want to bring this to your attention here so you'll be able to get a pretty good idea of what we're looking at right here and let me see there's the first one where there it is right here this is what happened when the market broke and this is important because these algorithmic people watch this this was the break you'll see on the 24th we got down to one standard deviation and the market immediately reversed ok now what happened last night unbelievable you can't make this stuff up it's just really exciting because I see it happen all the time here is the same situation when we had the market come down you'll see the first standard deviation came down again folks if we go below that standard deviation one more time boy oh boy this is where the option option people the guys you know they're six seven times the size of the stock market that's where they have to change their strategies they have to start covering positions and believe me when they start covering positions they're not worried about what price to get out at just let me out and that's the other thing you have to worry about with these markets with all these TFs if we could get a lot of people starting to come to the well at the same time we could easily see a downdraft and believe me the people in the investment business they love these downdrafts because the public is selling getting out at any price and at a much lower price they'll be looking at them and that's what we want to be watching for if this happens so the other alternative maybe this is a major high of this move that's been going on since 2009 we'll be right back we'll cover some fang stocks when we get back<PHONE_NUMBER> and round yourself with these sharpest minds in the trading world subscribers to the tiger's den are also the first to have their questions answered live on air and can privately chat with our TFNN hosts live during their shows interact with other tigers and tigers as they share trading ideas news analysis and discuss the market action all trading 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become the investor you were born to be TFNN Educating Investors you to scan thousands of stocks for Fibonacci formation setups including Gartly's, ABC's, Butterflies and much more. The art of timing the trade charts is designed to help you when scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days, weeks or even months searching to find and right now we're offering licenses available at only $79 a month we are so confident that you're gonna love this new charting software that will even give you a 30 day money back guarantee. Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software get your copy of the art of timing the trade charts today by visiting TFNN.com This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim for more information just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com Ok folks we're gonna look at a couple of fang stocks here because it does a couple of fangs it shows this you can see Tesla here there's two turquoise triangles there's nothing more than the ABCD pattern these patterns can be found in Tom's award-winning book very very popular timing the trade and he focuses on these patterns gives us a pretty good idea of where we're going but as you can see here I don't know where the price of Tesla is right now but as you notice here that the pattern that we were looking for said it should get down to about $800 it can't be very close because last time I saw it it was like $900 or something someone could update me where we are with Tesla we're almost at $800 shut the front door and raise the rent so that one worked relatively well I don't trade stocks folks I'm just giving you the 10-4 on this now I wanted to show you a couple of others here this is the weekly chart of you're gonna see it's had a heck of a correction here this is the weekly chart of Netflix and as you can see we're looking for support to come in somewhere around the 350 level we think that should be a pretty good correction and this remember this was done quite a while ago so so far it's running true to form now if we look at Tesla on a smaller time frame look what's happened here just in that you'll be able to see the ABCD patterns as Tesla is making its high up there around $700 you know we're in half now it's dropped in half in a matter of two months that's not a good sign but things are picking up maybe this virus thing will be over in a little bit making it a whole lot better for us to look at some of these things by the way if you have any questions it's<PHONE_NUMBER> I'd be happy to answer them for you and if I don't know what it is I'll make something up let's take a look here at another one here the one of my favorite stocks of all time and that is the I had to change the name of it I think they were afraid to call it what it was faceless no not faceless Facebook just drive safely Shane Shane was listening Shane Smolian one of our favorite contributors here TFN is on the picking up his son from school and it's listening to us on the old Jackson Jackson take good care of your dad tonight buddy I know you're a day older but that's okay you're still a little boy you'll notice here in Facebook the pattern that we had with the ABCD pattern there that was way back in September when it topped at 385 it's trading below 300 today and you notice here this market has been in a really pronounced downtrend here for the last three or four months telling the folks that maybe some of these tech stocks have been overvalued and we've seen that in the NASDAQ by the fact that it gives so much of it you know away each day I think it's holding its own right now as I recall yep it's starting to hold its own that's a good sign that we might be able to put it together here for the end of the day and we'll see what's happening but we had another day with a market you know tried to rally and it still could rally this last half hour but frankly it's it looks getting weaker and weaker as we look at it now let's look at one of the all-time favorites here this is the daily chart of none other than Mr. Appel who's down by the well get this up here okay this is uh this is Apple you notice here that we were looking for support to come in somewhere around that the 162 level and what happened was that day Apple gap down below that level and that was why it was so very important let me explain to you why there was a possibility that it could gap down below that what we do is we go down and we look at a four-hour chart so that tells us where we are in the sequence and as you can look here you'll see all of these patterns completing down here 162 well when that market opens you know a half a dollar and it opened a lot lower than that it opened down to about 159 that that tells you that there's something seriously wrong so if you got the big daddy rabbit the one that's been the best for the last well forever since 82 I guess 84 whenever it was I think 82 is when it came out but this has been a heck of a stock you know multi dollars in cash and everything but they're having a little trouble with supply chains like everybody else but that's where all we're doing is we're just looking at the price charts trying to get an idea of where we are with some of these things so that's I think it's very important someone just posted a book David White just did about the short history of financial euphoria by John Kenneth Galbraith in 1993 I happened to have met him when I was doing my master's degree in Indiana finance and he came down to talk to us about the speculation and everything and one of his favorite quotes was from that presentation was he said we were in a graduate school for two years and he said kids he said you know you learn more about going short a contract of soybeans and you will in these two years that you're going to be here so and he was probably right anyway I was just beginning trading back time back in the early 60s but I remember the quote really nice fellow and really very nice to meet and here's one that's got big troubles folks and it has had trouble for quite some time this stock this was done on Sunday and it's had a huge break from that level and that's Amazon you'll see it had the huge break of a little over $150 last Friday and I know it's continued down I don't know where Amazon is trading right now but the minimum objective would be around $254 in Amazon and if someone would be kind enough to tell me where Amazon is trading today I would certainly like to know that but where is it that is it too well it's still ahead it's almost close to that level but it's still got another few hundred dollars to go just looking at these charts watching it and then we need to look at soft this is one that is really has come down and should have held this level at $296 that was a really big spot I think it has held it for a few days but anything below $296 in Microsoft tells you're going to drop another you know $20 down to $279 so if it can hold that $296 and I believe it has it's $299 last so it's certainly done that so we still have a possibility the stocks could hold this level but folks go below that level that we were talking about earlier and that is $33,000 in the Dow that's another thousand points from where we are right now you don't want to be in that because it's going to go to $3,100 and that's $3,000 points in the Dow and it could do it very very quickly you know we got enough things out there we got COVID we got the we got what else we got COVID we got the Ukraine situation we got well you just pick one out you just whatever you want to look at but any of those could you know flare up and you can be looking at just the movement in some of these financial markets could be enough to make it you know make it you know very very scary now the strongest of all of these stocks has been Google and as you'll notice here even Google I don't know how low we got in Google this week but it said we were going to go down to about 25 2520 and someone could tell me the last price in Google did we get anywhere near 2520 this week we only got one more day to go but that said we should get pretty close to that this week 2520 in Google and where that is now I don't know but someone's going to tell us soon there it is 2592 we're only 90 bucks away so we're getting close in that one too so this is going to be interesting whether these things hold as we come up this week because we got a lot of things going on that will make it you know very very important to look at so I hope that helps you as we're going through looking at some of these things I think we have to pay a couple of bills here for Mr. O'Brien and the Tiger Financial Network in the year of the Tiger which starts on the 1st of February the full moon up the new moon and then we'll be right back<PHONE_NUMBER> Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Tampa Bay Area including the surrounding St. Petersburg Tampa and Clearwater markets Tiger Real Estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay Area whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value or you're in the market for a second home or investment property Tiger Realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the Tampa Bay Area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels from the price you should be paying per square foot in certain up and coming areas to the type of cash flow investment properties are capable of creating Tiger Real Estate can help you make the 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services LLC 1-8 Tom O'Brien okay folks Larry Pesimento for Tom O'Brien in the year of the tiger I have put up the charts of the Dow Jones e-mini contract it mimics exactly what the Dow Jones is doing you can see here from the 13th of January two weeks ago you know we came down hard into the 24th and then we've had a nice little three-day rally 25 26 27 here's where we are today if we go below this low at 33,400 we're only we could do it today but I don't think we will if we drop another 600 points and close there on Friday you do not want to be long market and I'll tell you why for two reasons one this pattern that we're looking at but the second reason is it's historical the last time I saw something like this was in October of 1987 and I saw this started this pattern that was completing on the second of October okay this one we're looking at right here and I bought put options on the second of October right on that high that we had just about two days ago okay and what happened over the next two weeks was known as the biggest buying opportunity the stocks had ever seen in any decade of with the 1980 in it but it was also known as the big crash we dropped 16% in the Dow in one day now they've got safeguards against that happening but there's a lot of people out there Millennials and edits reddits and all these other people that are not old enough to shave they've never said through anything like this and history has a tendency to wake people up and say hey look at me I've happened before maybe I should happen again maybe it won't maybe it will all I'm saying is just be very very careful if we close below 33,400 tomorrow especially tomorrow and if by tomorrow we happen to be closing below 33,000 man you just don't want to be there when the Chinese markets going to be closed all all next week because of the you know the Chinese holiday that's the that's their new years and they don't have a one day party you have a five day party so you just want to be very very careful maybe it won't happen you know maybe it'll go down and fake everybody out but I don't think so and I've been doing this a long time I I put my first trade on in 1959 and you know I've been doing a lot of things since then but I've seen these before and it's just a pattern markets go up and down and they do it in you know natural sequence but like like I mentioned before you know it's not it's not really worth your risk if you just look at this pattern that I that I posted earlier on the Dow Jones on on what it could possibly do I mean it's a it's a little scary and in fact it even scares me and I'm fearless so let me find it again so we'll be able to see it where is it I did I lose it again I have a tendency to lose a lot of things these days hold on one second okay nope that's the one for the S&P I've even done that one where is it let me look a little bit tiny bit closer here and we'll be able to see it I hope I know it's here because I haven't deleted anything and I'll find it somewhere well I guess I found it there it is nope that's not it I want to show you I've already showed you the Euro on that one I know I have not there it is I found it I'm sorry boys and girls here it is right here this is the Dow Jones here's where we are over the last you'll see the three-day rally you see that little three-day rally bada bing bada boom you see if we close below 3300 33,000 that's got a target of a minimum of you know 10% lower and you don't want to you don't want to do that that's just a really tough thing to do so let's remind ourselves just be very very careful and I think that's a very you know smart thing to do so those are the few things we got a lot of other markets you know the hurt not just the you know the Nasdaq has brought everything down but other things are getting hurt too so you've got to be very careful and there's another reason why you need to be very careful and that's this one right here which is many many times that's one of the other things that we're looking at here and that is the Treasury notes and Treasury bonds we're going to look at the Treasury notes here first here's that there's the ABCD pattern right there you see that little rally that's where we that's where we are right now in the Dow Jones were down a little bit from there so we're heading towards point D down there 125 that's what we're looking at so the same thing we're seeing in Treasury notes we saw it in the other was a daily but the patterns are still there they're valid doesn't make any difference what it is all the markets act the same you know they you know people don't understand that but all the buyers and sellers are all the same fellas that's that's really what it amounts to now if we look at the Treasury bond market here's a perfect example again of that pattern known as the ABCD pattern also featured in Mr. O'Brien's book you know what is it called timing he and David White put that together and it's a beautiful ABCD and that also if you look at that pattern on a much look longer term basis you know you'll be able to see that it will be hitting a whole lot lower just like we looked in the Treasury notes only what's happening is it can go a lot lower we got bonds trading about 154 right now we broken that support folks because of what the Fed did this week that sets up a price level of 129 that's the ABCD pattern that we're looking at here heading down towards 129 so that's why you've got to be alert to what's going on with these markets because by golly you know they can they can turn on a dime as we've seen many times but now is the time we've got to be you know extremely careful and I think you got to really be super careful here if you want to see a chart that should scare you look at the this is the weekly chart folks of the Russell 2000 index look what's happened here in the Russell I mean look at that big down move now if you want to be afraid go back and look in 2020 when we had a big down move like that in the Russell you see similarities there back in February of 2020 and where are we now we're going to be in February on Tuesday so let's be careful you know that's that's all I'm trying to do is to give you heads up here and there but as long as we can stay above that 34,000 33,000 you know there's no there's no danger but should we get in an area where we get way above that then you don't want to have anything to do with that puppy trust me on that one oh my old favorite word trust me yeah I've heard that a million times in these markets so they just they're just acting very poorly folk now let's get back to why this all could be happening and that could be the fact that we're having a lot of trouble in the foreign exchange markets and that is because of what's happening with the dollar again if I put up the euro which is 53% of the dollar index you'll see here again there's that same ABCD pattern getting ready to move that's the things that can make it really jump around in 1987 crash it was a deutschmark that did it and then the Japanese yen secretary Baker was over in Japan and he walked out of a meeting and he said the words that they couldn't come to a conclusion and boy that's what did it that's the market the Dow Jones gap down I think down about 50 or 60 points on the opening remember the Dow was trading at 2600 and it went all the way down to 1600 and 60 which was a 61% retracement of the 1982 low starting the biggest bull market of the 1980s which was on October the 19th and 20th of 1987 so hopefully we're going to see some really wild moves that we'll be able to buy and sell do both ways but right now the looks like the bias is just tightly slanted to the right side of the of the ledge and could change tomorrow just like it's done the last three days it's come back every time there's been a battle going on they run it up and they can't get above it run it up and they can't give it above it and pretty soon they're going to get tired my opinion only boys and girls my opinion only we'll be right back<PHONE_NUMBER> sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument you have to practice sure but you also need excellent instruction from experts at TFNN you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis and it's not just dry tedious text either TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV live every market day from 830 a.m. to 4 p.m. Eastern for free each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world from the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be TFNN educating investors you might think that if you want to be successful at trading 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the market was stopping at that time but I've been writing this letter for 15 years now but if you'll go back and look at 2009 if you'll notice the first little white triangles that are there this is where we are in the market right now my friends I really believe it you'll see the two white triangles there there's the first one and the second one I think we're getting ready to go down to make the second one for another low coming in in a few months but the key to remember here is that you'll notice how the market just rallies a very short distance in that little tiny ABCD format just like we did in both of those just like we're doing now and when that breaks here be careful so that's all I'm trying to tell you you got to be really really careful with these markets because they're very volatile when you see that Dow Jones can move $14, $1500 a day every day for three days are you kidding me people are scared hey raise my hand I'm scared too so you know it's you just got to be really careful these days folks you do that by using stop placement and when you see a market rallying really strong you say well I got to get out of the way here this is not working and try it again that's what patterns are for it's all about risk control folks it's not about the money that you make it's about the amount of money that you don't lose remember the slot machine nowhere in the slot machine does it say I've taken in more money than I've given out no way that you can ever beat me long term and over the past year I've taken in $500,000 and I've only given out $350,000 nowhere do you see that in any of your stock material that any of the people send you about risk control so you have to do that yourself you have to focus on what you're risking and not what you're making that's the real key to what we're watching here in the market we got one more day to go to Friday remember the thing to watch is $33,000 in the Dow Jones live every day in an attitude of gratitude and may God bless folks see you on the flip side


and if we invest in fixing that and we do it precisely now then that's an okay thing. Josh Bivens with the Economic Policy Institute what do you think about what Mr. Hassett is saying about missing the mark on the big problems? Well I guess yeah I mean there's some disagreement here I mean to me that the big problem right now is just the high unemployment rate and to me what is driving the high unemployment rate is not uncertainty or worries about long run deficit or regulation it is simply a shortfall of demand there's just not enough spending going on in the economy to to fully employ everyone and we know why that shortfall on demand happened you know we had an eight trillion dollar housing bubble that burst households felt and were much less wealthy all the construction of new homes that went on during the bubble collapsed and what we really need is something to step up and provide the spending to keep people employed until households burdened by all their debt that they took on during the 2000 that have worked that off feel comfortable spending enough again businesses feel comfortable spending enough again I don't think it's a shot of caffeine that will lead to an inevitable hangover it is supporting spending until the private sector has their balance sheets in order and can do spending themselves and so I think it you know I actually think it's not big enough to fill in that shortfall on demand caused by the bursting of the housing bubble still but but it's not small and it's a real step so I actually think it is kind of attacking the fundamental problem.


Hello everyone, welcome to yet another session of our NPTEL on non-linear and adaptive control. I am Shri Khan Sukhumi from Systems and Control, IIT Bombay. So we are into the 10th week of this course on non-linear and adaptive control and I hope that all of you now have a very fair idea of how to design algorithms that will drive autonomous systems such as the SpaceX satellite orbiting the earth that you see in the background. So what we were doing in this previous session was basically look at adaptive control in the presence of disturbance and how it impacts the robustness of the overall closed loop system. And we realized that one of the big issues that occurs because of adaptive control is the fact that though your errors might remain bounded under the action of an adaptive law, but what can happen in this is that your a tilde that is your parameter estimation error can very well go unbounded. And now this is a rather serious issue because this a tilde that is a parameter estimation error going unbounded means only one thing and that is that your parameter estimate a hat is going unbounded. And since this enters the control law in a very prominent way, this also means that in order to maintain this kind of bound on E, we will be forced to have an unbounded control law, which is of course something that is not acceptable in general. Not in general, but in every situation because obviously there is no way that you have unbounded controls available at your disposal. So one of the ways that we wanted to solve this was using projection of the parameter estimate. So the idea is if I do know what the bounds on my parameter are, then I implement a projected adaptive control law, which means that you sort of ensure that your parameter update stays within these bounds because of course since the true parameter value is within these bounds, it makes very little sense to try to search for this true parameter value outside these bounds. So we were starting to look at projection. So this is the most direct way to attack the problem. If you do know these bounds, then you can attack this problem in a very direct way. That is in the earlier situation, the lack of robustness is because of the parameter going unbounded, parameter estimate going unbounded. So now that's essentially what we do, we prevent the parameter estimate from going unbounded. And so it's like a direct way to attack the issue. How did we do that? We essentially related a tracking as always. So we also have a tracking error dynamics as always, nothing very new here. And then we redefine the control as this. This is not a big deal because I mean KE and R dot are both known. So obviously I can implement U if I know V and vice versa. So what's the idea of doing projection? How do we do projection is that we change the parameter that we estimate. We start to estimate this parameter phi star instead of A. How do we do that? We can write A in terms of this phi star using a tan hyperbolic function, which lies between minus 1 to 1. And because this function lies between minus 1 to 1 and it is 0 exactly when the argument is 0, that is phi star is 0. So if you put 0 here, you see that this outcome is essentially, if you essentially try to see the bounds on this, you can see that this lies between 0 and 2. This 1 minus tan hyperbolic lies between 0 and 2. And if you substitute 0, you get A min on the right hand side. If you substitute 2, you get A max on the right hand side. So this is the rather nice property that we are in a sense looking. And we will of course look at how to make the error 0 and so on and so forth. And what is the right value of phi star? So obviously you want to see what is the right correct value of phi star and all that. I mean the correct value of phi star need not be 0 obviously as you can see. Because that is not what we are looking for. In fact, if I put this equal to 0, then what I will get is something like A max minus A min over 2, A max. So let me write this out. If phi star is 0, I mean this is not the ideal value. Remember, I am just doing it for like an illustration.  So this is going to be some value. This is going to be A max plus A min over 2. And this may not necessarily be the right value of A. So phi star equal to 0 is obviously not the true value. Phi star has some true value which we don't know. What we are doing essentially is that we are moving the unknown from A being A to being phi star. And this is what helps us. And we can do this because of of course the tan hyperbolic function which is available to us. Just give me a moment. So how did we go about this? We started to define what is called filtered variables. And they essentially are true to its name. It is just filtered variable means that I define a filter on everything that appears on the right hand side. So the right hand side is simply, yeah, I am sorry, the right hand side is written here. Its E dot is minus Ae plus V plus Ax. And so whatever quantities I know on the right hand side, I define filters for that. So I know A, I know V, I know X. I don't define any filter for A because it doesn't make sense. I don't know. Any filter that we define in typical adaptive control setting would need to be implementable. So therefore, we define these filters which is E of dot is minus beta Vf, V of dot is minus beta Vf plus V and X of dot is minus beta Xf plus X. So the important thing to remember is that we define all the filters with the same gain beta. So this is what we need to remember. Of course, we have arbitrary initial conditions. The initial conditions are not very important. And now what did we want to do? We wanted to define the dynamics in terms of our filtered variables. All right. How did we do that? We simply took a derivative of this guy because that brings in E dot and E dot can be substituted friendly. That's simply the idea. So that's what I do. I take derivative of both sides of this equation, right here. And then I get E of double dot and then I get V of dot and E dot. And that E dot gets substituted from here, which is this guy. Now, because I want the dynamics, just in terms of filtered variables, I substitute for E from here, that is E of dot plus beta F V as Vf dot plus beta Vf X as Xf dot plus beta Xf. All right. So just substituting everything in terms of my filtered variables, okay, wherever available. And then I separate out terms with beta on one side and without beta on the other side. And if I define this quantity that's multiplying beta on the right hand side as Sigma right here, it's very easy to see that the equation that I have is Sigma dot equals minus beta times Sigma. So now, what do we do? So because we know that this is an exponential decay, right? That is, Sigma is equal to some Sigma 0 e to the power minus beta T. What we can say is that this is pretty much saying that instead of looking at this exponential decay term, which is well known in stability analysis to be not of any impact, we simply and we directly put Sigma equal to 0. And if you put Sigma equal to 0, this is the dynamics that we get for EF dot. Okay. So of course, I could be, you know, very, very precise and say that this is actually plus Sigma 0 minus beta T. So basically, Sigma is not 0, but Sigma is exponentially decaying. But this term, like I said, does not affect the stability analysis. So ineffectual in stability analysis. Okay. This is ineffectual in stability analysis. And therefore, we can ignore it and we choose to do that. Okay, we choose to do that. So let's see. So then what do we do? We define, we implement what is called a non-certainty equivalence type of adaptation law, right? So we just like A, we define an A hat. A was defined with a Phi star here, if you remember. So we, but we define A hat with a Phi hat plus Delta hat. So there are two terms, right? Not just a Phi star or a Phi hat corresponding to Phi, which would have been certainty equivalence, but a non-certainty equivalence. So we have a Phi hat and added to it, we have a Delta hat. So we have two terms and we will see how we use each of these terms, right? So because of this sort of using A and Phi and Phi hat, Delta hat instead of adapting for Phi, Phi hat and so on, we don't have to worry about A remaining bounded, right? Because our control, so if you notice our control is now VF of course, it is in terms of the filtered variables, we will of course take it back to the original variable, not a big problem. Yeah, easy to implement. So the control is now containing A hat, okay? And it's not difficult to see that this A hat is guaranteed to remain within this nice bound. Okay? A hat is guaranteed to remain within this nice bound. So there is no scope of VF becoming unbounded, yeah? Because we will of course prove that, you know, we will of course prove that XF will also be bounded, right? So there's no scope for VF being unbounded. So VF remains bounded, okay? So the other thing to remember is because we have defined a filter, yeah, it's and V is defined via VF and beta VF and V is what we really implement on the system, we have to also claim that V is bounded. And that's not difficult either because this is a stable system, yeah? So, so basically VF is bounded, the derivative is bounded. So V, which is the sum of VF dot and beta VF is also going to be bounded, all right? So boundedness of the control is guaranteed. And that's essentially one of what was the key issue in standard adaptive filter, all right? And which we can avoid now, great. So I'm sorry to seem like a long introduction, but I sort of re-explained a few things. So this is where our lecture 10.4 begins, yeah, technically. But again, the explanation that I gave for the earlier material were rather important. And I hope you can keep those in mind, okay? Great. So what does the filtered closed loop system look like? It looks essentially like this, right? It looks like this. I mean, the expression looks simple, but in reality, this A and A hat are complicated. So we'll of course write it out, yeah? So A minus A hat is actually this expression, yeah? You notice that the A min cancels out, yeah? And you're left with this gap, all right? So not a big deal, pretty straightforward, yeah? Now, we define a variable, sort of parameter error if you may, as Z, yeah? We use a different notation here and not the tilde notation because this is not certainty equivalence. That's it. And the Z is defined as phi hat plus delta actually left because we are using hats everywhere. This should be a hat, okay? So this is actually phi hat plus a delta hat minus phi star, all right? So this is what is your parameter error if you may, all right? And now we want to write this term, I'm sorry, we want to write this using the Z. So of course, we write phi hat plus delta hat as Z plus phi star minus a tan hyperbolic phi star, okay?  And where what have we done? We have simply used this shortening notation, a shorthand notation for this half A max minus A min and call it mu.  Okay, we've just flipped the sign. That's not a big deal. Yeah. Now what do we do? We have to choose two things. One is how delta hat is obtained in one and the other is how phi hat is obtained. All right? So delta hat is not given any dynamics. It is simply defined as minus E f X f. It's minus E f X f. Interestingly, I mean, if you do wish to do this, if you did want to do this, this essentially the delta hat expression looks like, looks like the certainty equivalence, yeah, adaptive update law. Yeah, this looks like the certainty equivalence adaptive update law. Yeah, why? Because I mean, if you if you took the filtered system, which is this guy, yeah, and you and then you thought of this as say, you know, thought of this as say A tilde.   I mean, in fact, it's a very quick calculation. I can simply do this. Yeah, this is an aside.  Well, actually, I don't need a gamma. So I take half a tilde squared.  So if you wanted to choose a hat dot here, what would you do? A hat dot will be E f times X. Yeah, a hat dot would be E f times X. Yeah. So let me see, there's only a sign issue here that we might need to resolve. But I think the sign issue is because we are defining things the other way. Okay, so the expression is exactly the same if you see, you get E f X f and you get an E f X f. The sign issue is just because of how you choose a minus a hat and all that. Yeah, let's not worry too much about that. But the expression for delta hat pretty much is motivated by this. Okay, so interesting for you to observe, I hope. So I hope you can sort of connect to this. All right, connect to this. All right, great. Now, what do we do? We start to we actually don't use a Lyapunov function in this case to get a phi hat dot at least. Yeah, not yet. We don't go to the Lyapunov function at all. So we directly compute a z dot and z, z dot is just phi hat dot plus delta hat dot. This phi star is a constant, of course, unknown, but still a constant. So phi hat dot remains as it is. And then you compute delta hat dot. Sorry. Yeah, compute delta hat dot. So phi hat dot is as it is. And then delta hat is minus EF XF dot minus XF EF dot, which is this whole thing. Now, what do we do? We take phi hat dot so as to cancel everything we can cancel. Yeah, so notice I can cancel this guy. Right, I can cancel this guy. And that's it. Right, I cannot cancel either of these terms. Right, so I choose phi hat dot to cancel this term with this and this term with this guy. All right. And so what am I left with? I am left with the z dot, which is this stuff. Okay, so this is the important thing to remember. The update law is already chosen before the Lyapunov analysis. It is already chosen before the Lyapunov analysis. Okay. So that's important to remember. So that was the, there are two pieces in the update in the, in the, in trying to find the parameter. There is the delta hat and there is the phi hat. The delta hat is this and phi hat is and delta hat is given by a static term and the phi hat is an update with this sort of an expression. Important to remember, unlike the certainty equivalence method, which we were doing until now, the phi hat, nor the delta hat to be honest are chosen using a Lyapunov function. They just chosen separately, just intuitively. Yeah. I mean, we are choosing a delta hat comes from, is motivated by the CE adaptive update law, as we just saw. And phi hat is obtained by trying to cancel whatever we can cancel in the z dot term. Great. Now, now we can, now we can sort of move on to the stability analysis. Yeah. So we have now two pieces of the dynamics, right? We have the let us see. We have the EF dot, which is written in this form, right? And we have the z dot. So these two are the critical ones. In fact, I will mark them with a different color, right? So this is the EF dot and this is the z dot equal. So these are the two equations that are required anyway, because we have essentially these two variables, EF and z. X7 and all are, of course, functions of these. So we do not have to worry about that right now. Yeah. Right. So we want to do a stability analysis of this closed loop system, right? All right. So let us see how we do it. I mean, I will do a few steps first. The first thing to remember, to look at is the sort of Lyapunov function we chose. The Lyapunov candidate is a rather interesting one. It is of this form half EF squared, which is just the normal quadratic in the first element. But in the second term, this is rather interesting. There is a positive lambda divided by 2 times a log cos log cosine hyperbolic z plus 5 star minus z tan hyperbolic 5 star, right? Now, what we want to, of course, we want to know and claim. We anyway want to do typically Babalat's lemma type analysis. So we are more than happy for V to be semi definite positive, right? So we know that the first term is, of course, nice, right? So no problem. First term is, yeah, it is sine definite, yeah? So no doubt. But what about the second term, right? What about the second term? So this requires a little bit of careful analysis. So what we will do is, let's take partial of log cosine hyperbolic z plus 5 star minus z tan hyperbolic 5 star, okay? So how do I take the partial? Just whatever, take the derivative, right? So this will be, there is only one variable here, right? So therefore, we have to take partial with respect to only this one variable. And so this is, this essentially becomes the derivative of this is 1 over cos hyperbolic times sine hyperbolic. Works exactly like the standard logarithm. So this is tan hyperbolic z plus 5 star minus, if I take partial with respect to z, it's just tan hyperbolic 5 star, right? And so this is what we get as the partial with respect to z. And of course, you want to note a few things. The first thing to note is that this term looks very similar to the term here. In fact, just, it's just the flipped sine version of this term. You have tan hyperbolic 5 star minus tan hyperbolic z plus 5 star. And I've taken the Lyapunov candidate in a smart way so that it's partial actually has the same term. Obviously, this will help us in the analysis. But the other important thing to see is that this term is always greater than equal to 0, okay? This term is always positive, non-negative, right? Why we say that is because, I mean, again this is something you can verify, right? This is something you can verify. So this is because you have a 5 star here and it basically when z is equal to 0, these two are the same. So it's equal to 0, okay? For any other value of z, this is non-negative, okay? That's the whole premise on which, you know, you sort of say that, so in fact, let me see, let me think about this a little bit carefully, a little bit more carefully, all right? Right. So basically what I'm trying to do is to take this v function and compute a sort of minima for this function, okay? That's the idea. And we claim that, so how do you compute a minima? You take partial with respect to the variables and equate them to 0. And then whatever you get is the minima, right? So in fact, let's see, because I took the partial, I want to equate it to 0. I apologize, I didn't complete the steps. So I'm taking the two terms separately because you can see that decoupled, there's only EF here and there's only Z here. I can do them separately, decouple them, not a big deal, right? So it's obvious that this term is minimum at EF equal to 0, right? Because I can take partial and equate to 0. Now to find the minimum of this term, I take the partial, I took the partial here and I will equate it to 0, equate to 0 for minima maximum. Of course, it can be maxima or minima. So when this is equal to a minima maxima, it's evident that at Z equal to 0 and I claim it is in fact the minima. Yeah, I'm not going to do this computation. You can check it out on your own, but it turns out that this has a minimum at Z equal to 0, right? And what is the minimum value? It is exactly, what is the minimum value? It's exactly going to be 0, okay? It's exactly going to be 0, all right? So that's what you have to verify, okay? So you will have, if you put Z equal to 0 here, yeah, at Z equal to 0, this will be log cos, this is just log of cos hyperbolic of phi star, I believe. Ah, okay. Sorry, the minimum is not, the minimum is not, minimum value is not 0. The minimum value is not 0. It's a positive quantity. So it's a positive quantity, yeah. So the minimum is not 0, I apologize, that's my mistake. It is a positive quantity. It's exactly log cos hyperbolic, in fact, is lambda times log cos hyperbolic phi star. If I plug in Z equal to 0, because Z equal to 0 here and Z equal to 0 basically gets rid of this term, yeah, I think that is okay. Yeah, I think this is fine, absolutely, all right, all right. So the important thing to remember is that the minimum of this function is strictly positive, yeah. Again, I have not verified, it's a minimum, you have to take a second derivative and verify, but it is easily verified, yeah, that this is in fact a minimum, okay? So minimum value I was thinking would be 0, but it is not, it's actually log cos hyperbolic phi star. So Z goes, Z is 0, because if I check here carefully, you have, if I equate this to 0, then tan hyperbolic Z plus phi star is equal to tan hyperbolic phi star only when Z is equal to 0, all right, excellent. So what did we look at today? We have sort of proceeded further towards this proof of this projection based adaptive control. We are yet to complete the proof of course, but we are, we have done the filter design and we have also, you know, sort of given the update loss, which is the phi hat dot and also there is a delta hat in this non certainty equivalence type design. In the subsequent session, we will be able to complete the stability proof for this set of system and we'll also try to understand what the implications of such a, you know, this kind of an adaptive controller is, all right, all right, great. Thank you and I'll see you again soon.


Man, don't you guys want to be on the Hamptons right now instead of this shit? I'm just trying not to get beat up before I get out of here. The day's almost over, Frank. Let's not make fun of anyone. God forbid we make a joke about being in the Hamptons. It is a stunningly beautiful day today in New York City. Saturday, June 13th. Second Saturday of the Black Lives Matter protest. We are here again by Washington Square Park to hand out flyers to make a difference.  Perhaps dancing around the sprinklers with some Dominican girls, laying out in the Hamptons with some Russian bombshells. I mean, I did spend over $1,000 on flyers and employing people, so I could definitely afford some Russian girls. That being said, Frankie Boy made the right choice today. We are down here.   We already hired about 11 people to hand out flyers. I had one guy talk to those people, give them the flyers, and right now they're at the Square Park distributing them. So, you know, we're going to walk over and kind of hang around the outskirts and just see what's going on. So last week, we were handing out the Second Amendment flyers as well as the Wi-Fi radiation flyers. This week, it's just going to be the Wi-Fi radiation flyers. I'll put it up on the screen right now. The main difference is that there is now a warning at the top telling people they are likely being radiated at this protest, and there's also a link to my YouTube channel at the bottom of the page. So, it's not just like $1,000 on flyers and people just to get the word out. I actually have some advertising right now on the bottom of the flyer, so I'm not sure if that's a good idea. Technically speaking, if we hand out 5,000 flyers to all of these people, the impression rate is actually pretty good. I'm not completely throwing my money down the drain. I am advertising. That being said, there's a high likelihood that a lot of the people at these protests are hired, are not real, don't actually care about what's on the flyer. Unlike last week, we actually got 11 people. It's funny, last week I messaged at least 20 people on Craigslist and not one person showed up. Not one person showed up, yeah. This week was a little better though. So, we got 11 people handing out flyers today. Unfortunately, I don't think the protests are as crowded as last week, but we'll see what happens. So, we're sitting here on Broadway in Waverly and we were about to head over to Washington Square Park, but there's actually a rally at the park at 3 p.m. So, it looks like one of the groups is heading down the street right now. Maybe we'll give them flyers as they come by. I'm not a great judge of numbers, but it looks like anywhere between, like, high hundreds, like, 800, 900 people to up to 2,000 people. You know, it's not like a, oh, is that the guy from the vegan protest? That's the guy from the vegan protest that broke my camera. I'm pretty sure that's him, the bald guy with the white beard. He must work for ANT first. I better not let him see me. Then he'll follow me around. This is basically it, guys. If I hand out 5,000 flyers in the middle of New York City and there's no news stories, there's no news coverage, no one says anything about it, nothing happens. If I hand out 5,000 of these flyers and nothing happens, what more can I do? What more can I do? You know, how much more money can I spend? How much more money can I afford to spend? What is there to do next if I hand out flyers to literally every single person at these protests in New York City? What more is there to do? So this is nothing like it was last Saturday.  You know, there's no, like, angry, angry, likewise matter protest. Actually, I think a lot of these people are the protesters and they're just hanging out and resting, but I'm going to have to figure out where the majority of them went. So I'm here at Washington Square Park and it's just like an average day in New York City.  I'm getting a little aggravated that I hired 10 people to hand out flyers. I'm spending $500 and, I mean, at least they handed out flyers in the group of people, but I got to figure out where these protests primarily are and see if I can get these people over there. Hopefully it's somewhere in Lower Manhattan, so I don't have to pay them that much more. But as you guys can see, you know, there's just a fairly empty park over here. I'm, like, looking on the Twitter and Instagram accounts for the George Floyd protests in New York City. I can't really figure out where they are right now. I know there's some stuff going on in Queens and Brooklyn, but we're way too far. I'm, like, DM-ing the Justice for George New York City Instagram account, like, oh, do you know where the protests are? I'm trying to join them. And I think this guy, like, knows what I'm trying to do because he won't tell me. And I'm getting kind of pissed. There's actually a decent amount of people in this park, so I will have the people hand out flyers, but I can't imagine there's more than, you know, a few hundred people total in the park right now, whereas, you know, last week you literally had six, seven thousand people just standing around. All right, so I got a little relief because some protesters did arrive. I'm hoping some more people show up. We'll see. We'll see if more people show up. That guy just whispered they're not getting paid. Of course they're not getting paid with a 200K Instagram account. So this is apparently the biggest group in Manhattan. I'm not as great of a manager as I thought I was. I told those guys to go hand out flyers in that huge crowd in the beginning, and they just followed the crowd.  I mean, I did say beforehand we're going to hand out flyers at Washington Square Park, but they just went with the crowd. So now everyone is back at the Square Park. It's about 2.45, so in about 15 minutes everyone should be gathered here. 3 o'clock at the park right now. This is when all the protesters should be gathering. So this seems like it's going to be our biggest chance today to hand out as many flyers as possible.  Great. At least I know they're doing their job. I would hope that people would hold onto the flyers instead of just throwing them out. I mean, there's only a few hundred people here today compared to last Saturday. But I think it's only going to get less and less push.  So I didn't really expect that great of a turn up today, and this is probably going to be kind of like our last chance in general to really hand out flyers. So I'm not too worried about it. So I have eight problems. You know that one in three is up in the system. The protesters are a little tired after getting radiated for three weeks. I don't really know what happened. I don't know if Soros' budget ran out or what, but there's only a few hundred people here today. So I think we're going to see if I can get some of these guys to go to the other protests today and hand out flyers. I am so over this. This is making me think more and more that all of the protesters, for the most part, are like paid and hired actors. If you look around, like, 99% of people are wearing a mask.  Anyone that isn't is usually by themselves. It's about 3.30. This guy has been talking for half an hour. We handed out flyers to pretty much everyone in the park right now, so we're going to drive down to City Hall and see if there's a crowd down there too, and maybe I'll get a couple more guys to hand out flyers for another hour or two. Total so far, I think we handed out just under 2,000 flyers. So as I said, I'm just waiting on one guy, and as soon as he's back, I'm going to take three guys down to City Hall and we're going to hand out some more flyers. Oh, that's cute. Right before we leave, everyone's getting on their knees. Some type of ritual. I was looking forward to going home. You know, I've been hanging around doing nothing for like five hours waiting for these guys to hand out flyers so I could pay them. You know, we're in Brooklyn. We're following this group. I think they're going back to Manhattan. So what we ended up doing was I Ubered these guys in a separate car to Brooklyn, and then we found the protesters and they're walking back to Manhattan. So we stopped the car, we took the flyers out of the car, and I got four guys in that group of protesters that are still handing out flyers right now. So hopefully they can hand out all the rest of those flyers. It should be pretty easy with how many people are there. I'm just going to follow this group slowly in my car until they get to City Hall and then we'll try to park around there and we'll hang outside the crowd and film. Where are you guys going? Where are you guys going? Brooklyn Bridge? How long this is going to be? You know, it might take like an hour just for us to get behind this crowd. It actually doesn't look like the crowd's moving though, so I don't know what they're doing. So I've been sitting in the car for 10 minutes and we haven't moved at all. I think I'll hang out down in the city until like 6.37, but then I'm just going to get out of here and it's already 5.15. So we'll give this another hour and hour and a half. Hopefully they're in City Hall by then. If not, I'll just pay these guys, let them hand out the rest of the flyers and we'll say we did our best. Say we did our best. So we're on the Brooklyn Bridge to head back into Manhattan and all the protesters are on the side of the bridge. It looks like they're crossing, looks like some of them are hanging around, but they're going back into Manhattan. So we should be able to get all the flyers handed out within an hour and be out of here. It's unfortunate that most people are really, really brainwashed and some people didn't even want to take a look at the flyer. But again, I think this is the most important thing I could do right now, get the message out about this weaponry. So we crossed the bridge and I parked right on the side of Foley Square, which is highly illegal, but there's a bunch of other cars parked here, so I don't think it really matters right now. The crowd should be coming up, I guess, within 20-30 minutes. I don't really know how long it's going to take them. But this is pretty much right off the Brooklyn Bridge, so they should be coming up soon. So this is Foley Square. There's already quite a crowd over here, maybe like 100-150 people. There's some cops chilling over there. And the protesters should be coming up there. Throughout the day, I've asked at least 15 or 20 different sources where these protests are, where they're going. And not once has anyone given me a straight answer, so it just seems like these people are blindly following the crowd doing whatever. But this Foley Square is right by City Hall. So even if they do go to City Hall, we could just literally walk down the street and we'll be right there. Pretty sure this building is City Hall, so we could just walk down there. So we walked from Foley Square down to the Brooklyn Bridge, which is maybe like a quarter mile, because the crowd wasn't coming in. It looks like they're about to cross the bridge right now. So this is the front of the protest. But there's 1,000,000,000 people here. So it's going to take them at least like... So we're going to see where they're stopping. So I'm going to go to the front of this protest and walk with them. It looks like we are congregating here. The immigrant industrial saving crowd. So compared to the Saturday Manhattan crowd, there's a lot more black people here. I would say this crowd is actually 70 to 80% black people, whereas in Manhattan it was the other way around last week. I'm getting some creepy secret cult group vibes here, which I'm not liking, but there's groups of people hanging around looking at each other. And ever since I came down here, I started coughing. So I think there's some type of radiation weaponry going on. Because I haven't been able to stop coughing since I got down here. So I haven't sent away from the crowd, but it looks like there's at least a few thousand people down here, as we said earlier when they were walking by. Huge crowd. Probably going to do another nonsense speech like they did the other day. So there's still people just piling in.  So I think everyone's taking a knee again. Don't you guys want to be out in the Hamptons right now instead of this shit? I'm just trying not to get beat up before I get out of here. The day's almost over, Frank. Let's not make fun of anyone. God forbid we make a joke about being in the Hamptons. So there's thousands of people at this protest, and allegedly there's still people at the Barclay Center. But I don't know if the Instagram account that's tracking this is just giving this info, and the majority of the people are here already, but I would guess there's at least 10-20 thousand people protesting in New York City as a whole between all of the boroughs. Apparently those guys are still on the Brooklyn side handing out flyers, so this crowd is gigantic. They might be done before even handing any out over here. This is absolutely insane. There's a few thousand people there, and it seems like it's just more and more and more people. Alright, so people just turn around. Now they're walking the other way.  So these people are literally being racist. Like a white person handing out flyers they won't take it from, and the black person they'll gladly take it from. It's kind of funny actually. Like isn't the reason they're here to end this nonsense? So the protests are over. I'm just waiting for these guys to come over from Brooklyn so I can pay them. I'm out like $700 cash today, plus the money I spent on the flyers, but oh well, we'll see how many subscribers we get on YouTube. You know I'm not too optimistic. These guys might have like not passed out all the flyers, but I mean what are you gonna do? Try my best. So thank you guys for joining me today. This is probably the last time we're gonna do this ads. You know the momentum for this is kind of dying down and I'm completely over this nonsense.


To Germany From Alaska to Puerto Rico All over the world the United States Army is on the alert to defend our country you the American people against aggression This is the big picture an official television report to the nation from the United States Army Now to show you part of the big picture here is sergeant Stewart Queen This is a pictorial report encompassing three diversified activities Two of them have settings which are familiar to us all the reserve officers training program in America's colleges and The story of the thousands of civilians who play a vital role in our defense effort The third story comes from a place which was once considered a remote romantic island in the Pacific An island which now contains the hard core of hope for 400 million people for most But first let's take a look at the army behind the army Sometimes called the fourth man civilians from every walk of life Are contributing a tremendous variety of skills and knowledge to keep our fighting team the world's best This is an actual scene of war Soldiers advancing to engage the enemy These are the men in uniform at one end of the long line of our country's defense effort a Line that touches a battlefield at one end and reaches deep into America Into the ranks of its citizens without uniforms at the other No, that's not a man from Mars. He's part of the great civilian force serving the army in a very special way His efforts which seem to go nowhere on that treadmill are recorded and analyzed by a physiologist And enable our army to better gauge its strength and here is another who is serving in a special way He's not simply flying that balloon for pleasure He's helping to develop and test intricate radar weather equipment, which will be of great value to our services These technicians are part of a vast civilian army who are augmenting our soldiers in the field There are four basic ways in which they support our military mission Some have special abilities which would not be otherwise available Like this glass blower who works at a trade that takes years of apprenticeship in order to shape complicated glass instruments Scientists who help to design and supervise the manufacture of new and complicated equipment Which is tailored to suit the needs of the soldier Coffee sampling is a rather esoteric occupation which requires unusually sensitive taste buds The findings of these samplers along with those of expert dietitians who are constantly Experimenting with new methods of food preparation and packaging are responsible for the development of improved rations for our soldiers in garrison or in the field The results of a decade of experimentation are clearly shown by the changes which have taken place in the contents of the assault pack a Very necessary part of the civilian force is concerned with personnel administration Other civilians take care of records such as army payrolls Dependency benefits and the greater proportion of vital records of the army Another important segment of our civilians in the employee of the army are concerned with a manufacture of weapons and supplies These members of our unseen army are freeing military personnel for primarily military duties Many skills and occupations are involved in the manufacture of clothing and equipment This fabric tester for example, he handles one of the first steps in the production of uniforms and other soft goods Cloth cutters have an important job A mistake here is costly and the confidence and years of experience needed for this trade is not likely to be found among members of the armed forces Machine operators perform many types of work necessary to completely equip a fighting man These government workers are paid at peace work rates Their productivity is at the same high level as maintained in other industries a Big advantage in having certain types of civilians work in the production of military goods and services is that in many cases They would not be subject to active military duty and our defense program can be assured of continuity of effort The civilians normal work is not interrupted by military activities that often reduce the availability of army personnel This utilization of civilian manpower has increased the depth of our army by almost 30% Just like the soldier civilian employees are concerned with saving money in the various kinds of production There is a constant watch for ways and means of saving money Maintenance on army installations is performed by the fourth man of the team Civilians can continue longer in a single assignment or location than can be expected of military personnel The stability provided by these workers who may serve many years in one particular trade Makes rotation of soldiers possible within the military system men like the plumber who keeps the utilities in working order Or the electrician who sees that the power supply is always operating and the guards who maintain the security of Army installations Civilian buyers are down at the wholesale market dealing with the suppliers of top quality foods These civilians are experts in bargaining for the lowest price on the current market The army is the largest single buyer of food and equipment in the world In addition to those who do the actual purchasing there are a great many analysts and experts who assist them in making the best buy There is an enormous range of jobs performed by the army civilians Some of them are seagoing like these men who operate a special vessel of the Corps of Engineers Which keeps the rivers and harbors free of driftwood and other obstacles Some army civilians take the place of the soldier in the training of other soldiers They form a hard core of instructors for the expansion of our army in the event of all-out mobilization The place of civilians on the nation's defense team gives our army for big advantages It gives abilities not otherwise available assures a stable administration and operation provides a core of trained personnel for any emergency and Freeze the soldier for duty in the line These are the civilians of the army establishment. They work in army installations in your community They are the non-uniformed teammates of the soldier in the line Working together at their trades and crafts their professions and specialties They are an integral part of the ground defense force the fourth man on the army team Well, that's the story of army civilians who play such an important role in our national defense We swing now to the far east where our army is making a special contribution to the pool of strength of the free world Taiwan is its name in Chinese For Moser is what it's called in English Only 90 miles from the mainland. It's the home and hope of free China This was a story that made recent headlines These men had been soldiers of the Chinese Communist army fighting in Korea more than 14,000 prisoners of war Who refused to return to the totalitarian way of life in the Korean prisoner exchange? This was the greeting they received as they joined the forces of free China on the tiny island of Formosa a wildly enthusiastic crowd jammed the docks as they came down the gangplank a Solidly packed cheering mass shouted its welcome as the trucks bearing these new additions to the cause of freedom Rolled through the streets of Taipei the capital city after many years They were in a place where individual freedoms still exist. They were in a new resurgent plan a land of marked contrasts Where primitive is side-by-side with the modern where the techniques of the past are yet in evidence For a being shed as rapidly as modern methods can be introduced vast expansions in the electric power is Increasing production of goods which once had to be transported thousands of miles Products which might someday be necessary in the liberation of their homeland Many contrasts are marked by the main government building a relic of the days of Japanese rule The statue of Sun Yat-sen founder of the Chinese Republic ox carts and automobiles share the streets which contain Western style department stores and The products of the Hollywood studios a Conspicuous feature on Formosa is the intensity of the campaigning for public office Here is something which has not existed on the Chinese mainland since the day the communists gained control Free elections take place here without fear of reprisals These people are voting for the election of local mayors and magistrates But they are also casting their ballot for their country's position in a tense world a world divided by an iron curtain By their alignment with the forces of freedom they have indicated their unwillingness to be a part of a Soviet controlled empire aid from America is assisting the free Chinese in their efforts to become a free modern democratic nation Recently the Nationalist forces received their first shipment of jet airplanes Generalissimo and Madame chunk I check watch a demonstration of the fighters capabilities on their delivery to a Formosan airfield The major effort of Nationalist China is the rebuilding of a robust and potent army One of the most valuable parts of American aid is the military assistance advisory group or as it's commonly called Mag Officers and men of the United States Army are imparting their skills knowledge and experience to the effort on Formosa They are giving advice to an intense training program which encompasses every phase of military operation The ways of modern warfare are complex and while some of these Chinese are veterans of many years of fighting on the mainland most of them have to undergo constant Reorientation and practice in the utilization of current weapons of war as it would be an impossible job for the few Mag personnel to train an entire army much of the effort is concentrated in the officers training school These trainees will then pass on the knowledge to the bulk of the Nationalist army Demonstrations are given of all the basic weapons. This class is learning the nomenclature of a mortar site But technical information by itself serves little purpose to a soldier and there are constant sessions of practical application of what's been learned in the classes Nationalist officer candidates learn to operate all the weapons of the infantrymen Conditioning both men and machines is a vital part of the program to which the mag instructors have given much advice Equipment gets a periodic inspection and all of it is kept in top working condition ready to be used in an instant The soldiers on Formosa spend a great deal of their time working in the field These sessions on the other side of the globe are helping to strengthen the defense of the free world in the far east During the frequent maneuvers combat conditions are closely reproduced to give an accurate flavor of what could be expected in a real war Most of the new arrivals from the Korean compounds have already become members of the Nationalist forces They have seen communism in action and will not soon forget it today They are training with the forces of freedom While they dream of a free China for the 400 million on the other side of the South China Sea The flags of America and free China fly side-by-side as the fighting force of the Nationalist shows its combined Strength in a giant parade at Taipei Major General William C Chase commander of our mag unit reviews the results of US assistance No longer a bedraggled group of refugees the armed forces of free China have now become an important Contribution to the total strength of the free world Men and equipment Stream past the reviewing stand an impressive fighting force ready to guard against the aggression of communism Made more effective through the assistance of the United States Army Yes, our military mission to free China's fighting men may be the guiding hand of their destiny Now for a subject close to home Our cameras focus on the college campuses Where the youth of today are learning to be the leaders of tomorrow as members of the reserve officers training corps Each year our colleges and universities turn out a new group of young men who have received specialized training for their future roles in life Each college has some special features of which it is proud One of the most distinguished courses common to the curriculum of most institutions of higher learning is that course called General military science or as it's more commonly known the reserve officers training corps You're probably aware that during the history of our country Almost every generation has been called upon to enter military service That is one of the major reasons your government established our OTC as part of your college career You're probably wondering what ROTC can do for you Well, it can do a lot Primarily it will give you first-hand knowledge of military science and tactics and train you to become officers and leaders in the defense and development of our country It will teach you the principles of leadership Which are essential for a civilian as well as military success It will teach you how to get along with and lead your fellows It's a four-year course Freshmen and sophomores study a wide range of subjects from military symbols and elementary map rating To an understanding of the powder kegs and dangerous spots throughout the world Other subjects include learning the way to select the right man for a job Training in the M1 rifle is a must for every cadet its nomenclature and maintenance become thoroughly familiar Most colleges have indoor rifle ranges They're scaled down to use 22 caliber ammunition in the M1 rifle They develop the eye at a fraction of the cost of regular ammunition Not a bad score. He squeezed rather than pull the trigger an Opportunity for developing the qualities of leadership are given to top cadets in their second year They get a chance to practice on new cadets and build their self-confidence in handling men There are many branches of the army in which a cadet can take specialty training They can pick a service which closely fits into their college course and have the advantage of supplementary training in a field In which they eventually plan to earn a living The quartermaster course is profitable to those cadets who are interested in merchandising as a career or in any field where Distribution is important Engineers work with problems common to civil and military activities Automotive engineering is an important part of the ordinance core stripped down vehicles give a part-by-part understanding ROTC veterinary units have been established at many colleges The care of military animals mules horses and dogs is the job of the veterinary core But a fighting army needs fighting weapons and an understanding of big guns is the major concern of those students who are interested in the artillery Infantry students get to set up and handle all the weapons of the infantrymen in addition to their small arms After two years of training a student executes a written agreement to complete phase three and four of the military science course The advanced course discusses subjects on the strategic as well as the tactical level Third year means summer camp for members of the ROTC Most branches have their own camps and students converge on them from every part of the country for six weeks of active duty The cadet is now a soldier and subject to army regulations He gets a physical examination army style and when he limbers up. It's by the numbers During his stay in camp. There is much variation in duties and position one day a student may be a wire stringer On another he may be a company commander or become involved in an all-day maintenance job He's housed under canvas and learns to live and get along with others And when he eats it's out in the open where the food has a special tang that's hard to beat Units of the regular army frequently put on special demonstrations for the benefit of members of ROTC Here a lineman has suffered an injury while working high on a pole The cadets see the special technique for getting him safely down Are also demonstrations of the latest kinds of equipment the kind that would not ordinarily be seen on a college campus This television camera is part of a mobile unit which is becoming an important part of military communications Through its electronic eye pictures of tactical situations in the line can be instantly viewed at headquarters But participation is most important on combat maneuvers They learn the many things that enable an army to fight and sustain itself in battle These men are becoming better prepared to better serve their service in ROTC has brought in their experience Graduates are candidates for appointment as second lieutenants in the army reserve or National Guard Some outstanding students may be selected for regular army commissions Now the biggest source of junior officers in our army. It has become the symbol of leadership ROTC Learn today leave tomorrow America's young men are better prepared to better serve and That winds up this pictorial report This is sergeant Stuart Queen inviting you to tune in the same station next week For another look at your army in action on the big picture The big picture is a weekly television report to the nation on the activities of the army at home and overseas Produced by the signal core pictorial center Presented by the US Army in cooperation with this station You can be an important part of the big picture You can proudly serve with the best equipped the best trained the best fighting team in the world today the United States Army