The following is a presentation of TFNN The Trader's Edge with Steve Rhodes Toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER> The Trader's Edge now Steve Rhodes Good day folks welcome to the June 24th the fantastic Friday edition of today's Trader's Edge show I'm your host Stevie Perseverance Rhodes who absolutely knows that each of us should always be pioneers of our future versus prisoners of our past hope everyone out there's having a great day and let's make sure we have an extraordinary one and the easiest way to do that well it's to always remember that life is happening for us not to us that's right when you now make that one little two-by-four shift means we can find the gift in every set of circumstance that life is gonna toss at us now today you and I we're gonna go check out the circumstance of these markets we'll go figure out what those bulls and bears what those buyers and sellers are communicating to you and I at just past 1 o'clock in the afternoon although it's just past 8 o'clock in the morning that's right so if you are listening live at 8 between 8 and 9 we would love to hear from you you can give us call<PHONE_NUMBER> if you can't call in you can always send me an email now make sure if you listen between 1 and 2 and you send me an email I won't be able to get back to you I won't be in front of my screens out there but if you're listening live you can send an email to Steve at tf9.com and inside the subject and if you would be kind enough to put radio show question and of course our Tigers didn't want any in every ping will do but Stevie prefers those private one just makes it a bit easier to keep track of your requests so let's go ahead and get this show started on fantastic Friday of course this is tiger financial news network I'm Steve Rhodes welcome to the show right now we got US equity futures all trading higher the Dow's up about seven tenths or percent that's 226 points NASDAQ 108 tenths or 95 points the eight tenths for the ES mini that's 29 points the Russell's up by nearly nine tenths that's about 14 to 15 points to the upside spot politics is trading down 32 pennies it is a quickly approaching its 50-day exponential moving average we'll take a look at that if we look at what took place overnight Asian markets and Australian markets closed higher the hang saying up by a little over 2% out there we look at what's going on in Europe via the DAX and the footsie they're both up over 1% the DAX is up one and a half percent goals back to bucks trade out at 1827 silver's off 22 cents she's trading at 2081 you've got 30 your treasury is nearly down one points off 26 takes straight out of 13609 so that's what's going on in the markets was all that mean I'll tell you what it all means let's start let's make sure that we go come back and understand where we're at how we got here why we're here what the markets are communicating to you and I so look at a couple of different things very first thing we take a look at the cash indices you'll see the A to B equal CD down patterns now each of these have completed with the exception being the Russell 2000 we'll come back to the Russell 2000 each of them have by the D point patterns out there by the D point patterns typically have five different outcomes the first outcome being a point three eighty for example let's take a look at a by the D point pattern example for the S&P 500 so we're looking at the cash in to see out here so the five different outcomes are for them are retracement levels so let's go ahead and take a look at those retracement areas these become possibilities likely possibilities of price target areas so we're going to go from the high of the A to B equal CD pattern down to the low out here so the first level this would be quite a move out there would take us up to the 4088 area again we're going from the top at 4818 down to low at 3636 out there that's just considered a dead cat bounce that would kind of be nothing so you've got the confirmed by the D point pattern the cash in to see what suggests that price should target the 4088 level out there we take a look at the equity future contracts we have really the same A to B equal CD down patterns three of them the ES the NQ and the Dow all confirming with bullish reversal candles now here we have some different levels to be paying attention to these levels are the profile areas profiles help us understand currently where we have both buyers and sellers in the case of the ES many in other words the S&P 500 out here what we can see is prices quickly approaching the top of its daily profile that's where the sellers are hanging out they're hanging out at 3842 we're trained at 3829 we've been up to a high of 3834 odds favor that price is going to go tackle that 3842 level now if price is able to close above that that's giving us a change in trend signal and that would add to the idea of doing a point 382 retracement well Stevie what's a point 382 retracement of the ES many great question let's go ahead and let's put that in here so now we're gonna have a second target for where price and I just say there's five different potential targets you'll see that those four out here are the retracement levels of point 382 which in the case of the ES many would say 482 would be a price target now a normal move would be a point six when retracement that would get you up to the 43 56 am I saying that's where price is going no I'm not saying that at this stage here the first level that price needs to overcome inside the ES many is closing above the 3841 level the Russell 2000 as I mentioned as you can see here that's the lower right hand panel did not complete or has not complete that same a to b equal CD structure out here does that mean that it hasn't bottom no it doesn't because what the Russell 2000 is done is this generated a road's momentum indicator bottom pattern out here and that that took place about four days ago on Tuesday when there was a three river morning star pattern it's a bullish reversal candle that's how we confirm tops or bottoms in this case here but a bullish reversal candles are to confirm bottom patterns out there and I really suggest you use it for whatever patterns it is that you trade out there that is how the market communicates to us bullish and bearish reversal candles at the completion of a pattern they're just kind of interesting to see during the pattern out here so you've got bottom patterns across the board basically for all the indices all the daily time frames in fact in the case of the NQ and the nasdaq composite they may form not just did they form bottoms last week but they may form they may form roads meant to mitigate bottoms well this week they're generating the bullish reversal candle and odds favor that the markets are going to finish higher today why does TV say that I say that because we just take a look what's going on across the globe out there pretty decent indication you've got Europe that close that's right now trading higher likely to close higher out there you've got Asia that closed higher last night no reason to think that the US markets won't do the same but you've got the yes many that is approaching resistance it'll be the first one to test that resistance the top of its daily profile while that is going on we have the spot ball utility index which is trading right now still above slightly above more than slightly above its 50 day exponential moving average the 50 day exponential moving average and some poll this little data box where you can actually see it so the 50 day exponential moving average is sitting at 2809 prices train at 2871 so in essence what we've got here is a convergence of spot ball tunics pulling down to a key level sport that's the 50 day exponential moving average we don't care what it's priced at it doesn't matter whether it's 40 or whether it's 10 or whether in this case here it's 2809 we just want to understand where is price in relationship that 50 day exponential moving average so you've got the yes many that's going to be approaching resistance and the spot ball tunics which is going to be approaching support from a bullish standpoint you want to see support on the spot ball tunics at 50 day fail and of course you want to see the top of that daily box inside the yes many fail as well don't know whether that will happen or not out here but the price is going to where there's there's no signals out here that I see on the interday charts to suggest that price should at least go back tackle the top of that profile we thought was a 3842 level of the yes many Steve Rhodes would see if it had to be right booming inflation we are purchasing powers eroded there's no better place to protect your hard earned money than a gold this the golds flagship asset is the Monk Todd Gold project in the Northern Territory of Australia this is Australia's largest undeveloped gold project we are talking a world-class gold 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you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed these newsletters are packed full of Tom's advanced technical analysis in our geared to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio get Tom O'Brien's newsletter market insights today and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk free with our money back guarantee at TFNN.com TFNN educating investors are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay area including the surrounding St. Petersburg Tampa and Clearwater markets Tiger Real Estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay area whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value or you're in the market for a second home or investment property Tiger Realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the Tampa Bay area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels from the price you should be paying per square foot in certain up and coming areas to the type of cash flow investment properties are capable of creating Tiger Real Estate can help you make the best decision when it comes to all areas of the market before you make one of the biggest decisions of your financial future call Tiger Real Estate LLC today at<PHONE_NUMBER> or email us at tiger at TFNN.com that's<PHONE_NUMBER> call us today call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER> welcome back up folks so i mentioned the NQ NASDAQ uh uh uh in the NASDAQ composite the uh so the NDX100 the NASDAQ composite the NQ on a weekly basis so we're looking at i'm just going to expand out the chart here just so uh you can just uh focus on just the NQ so what we have going on out here right now is you can see that there was a TD9 count bottom that formed last week there was a wave seven bottom that's letter g out there so you had two bottoms does matter whether we have two or three no but it does tell you um uh what the market's intentions are and now we've got a bull sash candle in fact if price closes above last week's uh open last week's open was 11-810 we're at 11-834 right now you're going to get a confirmed rose momentum indicator bottom so the mark if you're questioning whether or not the markets are bullish for this moment or whether they're trying to form bottom or whether they have formed a bottom here's the answer the answer is absolutely you can't ask me to do the show talk about a to b equals cd down patterns how they actually form and complete that whether it's the one to one one to 1.272 one to 1.618 whatever the level is out there and then when they do form to somehow say ah ignore it no don't ignore it no in the case of the nq what you can't see is on my daily time frame price is likely going to go target the top of his profile as well the reason is because price is above its oscillator and change line which by the way the chart that you're looking at the oscillator and change line is that green red squiggly line 12403 on a weekly basis price is going to go target that line now the line may move lower while price is moving higher vice versa but for generally speaking that is where price is headed to now you can see on a weekly basis that since the high that was put in we've only seen a one week close above that oscillator and change line one hit wonder out there but that's where price is targeting that's a natural resistance level but first stop on the nq is likely going to be 12 037 now 12 037 is the top of its daily profile and this is where it really kind of gets interesting because the es meaning is getting very close to the top of its profile and so as price the espany just going to stop and wait for the nq to get up there i i don't know the answer to that but it's something for us to watch and observe so on a weekly basis you got a very strong message with regard to the nq the last piece of the puzzle for the nq becomes its market profile market breadth out there i'm not sure that's exactly how i meant to say it but it is how i said it here we're taking a look at the daily time frame for the nasdaq 100 and what this does is it takes a look at each of the instrument center in there about 104 567 like that and what it does is it takes a look at where is price trading relationship to those profiles so we took a look at those profiles earlier the top is where sellers are residing the bottom is where buyers are residing the center which gravitates doesn't mean just because we call the center it's just a wedged in between the top and the bottom doesn't mean it's trading right at the center sometimes it does in other words the midpoint but oftentimes that center line is closer to the top or closer to the bottom in this case here it was closer to the bottom inside the es mini and in fact in the nq both the bottom and the center are at the same price telling you about strong support down at that 11396 area out here but here is the deal those profile levels when price is trading above the top of the profile conditions are assumed to be bullish and when price is trading below the bottom because of the below support conditions are presumed to be bearish well we take a look at all the instruments inside the nasdaq 100 this is as of 822 in the morning what we can now see is we have 30 instruments that are trading above the top of the profile and 30 instruments that are trading above the bottom in other words we've got kissing cousins right now or maybe it's hopefully it's more than kissing cousins but price is so we're going to see now if we get that to flip today when i say flip what i mean is you get more instruments trading above the top versus trading below the bottom that is going to be a bullish crossover and tells you to prepare for a bullish market and not to be shorting this market not just yet not until the next pattern sets up the next pattern of just simply trading up in resistance top of the profile is likely not it i can't guarantee anything but i can guarantee you one thing we see this nasdaq 100 crossover to a bullish mode it's likely not for a one day wonder out here so you want to pay attention out with regard to the s&p 500 it's got a bit more work to do so if we take a look at the s&p 500 we go to it's a daily time frame what we're going to see as we speak and this is as of 823 in the morning we have a total of 122 instruments trading above the top of their profile 171 trading below the bottom so what this does tell us is we should see the ES mini get up to that resistance level the top of that profile and probably pause there while the ndx 100 and the others perhaps move higher out there so what we've got is likely very bullish conditions inside the nq and we'll just simply have to wait to see what takes place inside of the es mini let's go out to our first caller it's john and philly john thanks for calling thanks for holding how are you this morning see well i'm very very well thank you for doing this show i must confess i uh i much uh i much like i won't say i prefer but much like you're doing the 8 a.m show giving you good preparation for the day ahead so this is just terrific so i thank you you're welcome steve i uh we just nearly supplement things you have just said about the nasdaq uh 100 index by just um emphasizing that low last week i think it occurred on the 16th uh on the weekly chart of course that formed a patented basal Chapman wave leg g lower uh it looks like that's going to be a trough g and then i also have to thank uh former dinner sarah toga bob who was a uh a student excuse me a student of basal Chapman's attending uh live in person workshops with basal in the boston area long ago and yes sarah toga bob came up with the Chapman wave trough g buy signal trading signal that he used when he was in the den for a good many years i saw him use that uh live in real time on all time frames weekly daily yes five hour two hour hourly chart uh so that is in place at the low last week in the nasdaq 100 yes and the cool thing about that pattern here as john was just really pointing out is that it does work on all time frame so for example because we're talking about the nq right now john i'm sure that you have noticed here that what we also have is a potential seventh wave top on the 30 minute time frame chart so we got up to that level that was a two o'clock this morning and what we did see what folks when you do generate a topping signal what the expectation should be is probably should pull back to support that's exactly what took place on a 30 minute time frame support being the bottom of its profile which was 11 812 53 now if we do see a close on the 30 minute basis below that level that's going to suggest that the nq would pull back to 11 684 but this is how we use this in real time so to speak out here although there was two o'clock in the morning but take a look at it on a 30 minute basis and as john had pointed out here on the weekly chart that you're looking at right now you can see that letter g and that's going to confirm today out there so uh so good points there but i know you were calling about ticker symbol igv i believe is that correct yes would you please um show me all the data you have on the weekly daily uh time frames on igv uh igv is the uh software etf of course it's dominated dominated by microsoft but it's got adobe sales force and a bunch of small ones in it uh that looks to a bottom that may lead higher if we do get a rally i love it hey john we're going to a break here john we're going to a break we'll be right back with john and philly just a few moments are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio tom obrien is here to help tom obrien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years a frequent contributor to td ameritrade network and cnbc tom obrien founded tfnn over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you tom's daily market newsletter market insights is published every morning when the market's open to give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed these newsletters are packed full of tom's advanced technical analysis in our gear to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio get tom obrien's newsletter market insights today and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk-free with our money back guarantee at tfnn.com tfnn educating investors tfnn has just launched their new trading room the tiger's den hosted at discord tfnn has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours and now they are expanding their reach with the tiger's den available to all tigers and tigers for just one dollar for the year there's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders in the tiger's den you can look over the shoulders of tom obrien and the other tfnn hosts while they analyze charts during their live tiger 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of timing the trade charts is designed to help you when scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days weeks or even months searching to find and right now we're offering licenses available at only seventy nine dollars a month we are so confident that you're going to love this new charting software that will even give you a 30-day unconditional money back guarantee don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software get your copy of the art of timing the trade charts today by visiting tfnn.com back up folks so we're taking a look at the charts here for igv for john in philly and igv as you pointed out is the tech sector inside of the surfeits and nasdaq but it is the tech software tech software sector etf now right now in pre-market trading john igv is trading at the last tough trade fired off at 281 the importance and the reason that i bring that up is if we take a look at the weekly time frame chart first of all we can see that the high form with erodesment to indicator top when i say it can form that that's because what it confirmed with a bearish reversal candle that was a bearish engulfing candle on a weekly base that was for november 19th now what we can see here and there were some other erodesment to indicator signals as price moved down folks that were triggered one was the week of april 22nd the next one was april 29th but just because a pattern triggered that was not the indication of a bottom that requires a bullish reversal candle that takes us to today we can see that this week another erodesment to indicator signal triggered and john we have what we have as the present time at 8 31 in the morning is a bull sash candle so just like the top was formed with erodesment to indicator top the bottom now is giving us erodesment to indicator bottom what i would have shared with you and i will share this with you is the likely price target is that red oscillator and changeline and that's at 287 and the pre-market trading were already above that so i would be watching that 287 area if price closes above that we would eat a second weekly close above that to really give us a confirmed change in trend for the weekly time frame as i pointed out earlier with the nq charts that we're looking at in the case of igv on a weekly basis john the only week where price closed just slightly above that oscillator and changeline was the week of april first and that was a april fools joke as the very following week price closed back below it so it's why we need two consecutive weeks but you're getting a uh so the next level price trade at 281 the next level of resistance for it is at the 286 40 level and that is where both buyers and sellers believe there's fair value within side that weekly profile and the bottom of which is at 266 92 and the top is at 330 509 and if we get a close above the 286 40 level john that really becomes the price target now when we take a look any question about that weekly chart the center portion that we're looking at john so far so good steve okay the daily chart is on the very right-hand side and that confirmed erodesment to indicator bottom signal last last uh friday and then we had a uh uh and that's so that has a confirmation now it is going to deal with profile resistance levels that says there's a battle at 282 55 you clear that then there's a battle of 291 you clear that then there's a battle at 298 47 so you know where the defense is set up as price moves higher out here and then a price can clear the 298 47 level that gets us up into that 335 range the monthly chart you know doesn't have any kind of a bottom signal so i would the way that i would interpret this is that we should expect an anticipate a counter trend move one that should last two to three weeks as we get to that you know the end of next week or possibly the week after that we'll come back and reanalyze this but it looks like maybe the work to the downside isn't done but in the short term when i say short term i'm using the daily and the weekly time frames now we've got a rally that should ensue now it could turn into more than that but i don't have any kind of bottoming signal on the monthly time frame and with price having broken through the support of the bottom of its profile as well as its breakout area its chart suggests that over time IGV wants to get down to the 196.09 so it's kind of saying that the bear market isn't over but we should expect and anticipate the typical rally inside the bear market does that make sense it does even i'll just supplement everything you have said by saying this where of course we do not know if this very short term low turns into something more substantial as a investor speculator trader one way to handle it which is the way that i have done was uh bought it last week against that test of the may 12th low yes yes and now that you've got an edge you've got the luxury of just holding it and uh and then observing how far it rallies if it turns out to be something more substantial you've got a core long position that you can supplement with uh added uh added amounts and uh if it bounces then fails then you can get away at worst with uh a break even so well yes absolutely that is one way to handle it and that is the way i have handled yeah well congrats to you on buying it last week as it was forming that bottom uh that was wonderful and as john was pointing out it was testing a prior swing point so that was helpful now the chart that i've got on my screen here john is the is the s and p 500 in the weekly chart out there and those black arrows so since the high was formed what we have seen is we have seen two countertrend moves one that lasted two weeks one that lasted three weeks so people are wondering when i say we have a rally it's the last two to three weeks where's that coming from well this is one of the places now most people would say oh stevie come on you can't use two examples to tell me that that's how it's going to work so i'd say you know you're absolutely right it doesn't really come from just those two examples if we take a look at the last significant bear market and certainly march of 2020 is one that we could look at but if we go back to the 2007 2009 bear market out here if you take a look at all those black arrows john what you'll see is number two or number three you see two to three week rallies now when i say two to three week rallies folks i'm talking about where each week closes above the prior our closeout there and so you can see that it is very common to have that from a time standpoint to have that two or three by rally now as we came out of the march lows out there what started taking place and this really feeds into what john was saying he's taken a position we don't really know if this bottom is more significant than the way that we're kind of uh discussion at this stage here or at least the way that i'm discussing it which is to expect only a two to three week rally but if we see something more than that that's going to tell us john that maybe adds to the vigor that this is more substantial than maybe what you and i are discussing or at least what i'm discussing right now does this chart make sense and how i come up with the two to three week that's very helpful to add to that uh steve uh i'll uh thank you i'll sign off imparting just restate one thing that uh i have heard repeatedly david whites as mentioned this over uh over the years repeatedly and that is the the idea presented uh by paul tutor jones in particular and of course he's not the only one to have said this but when asked somewhere along the line long ago how did you pick that bottom yeah i know what you're saying well i picked that bottom seven times the first six were losers the last one was the winner each loser was tiny and the winner was huge so yes that's the only way you know a professional speculator trader that person he or she knows you don't know when the bottom is you don't know when the top is you uh yeah absolutely um uh place your best manager risk and if you see the conditions keep at it yeah exactly and that's why we you know that's really what this show is about and and all the shows here at tfnan is and we use different tools some of you so similar tools are the same tools out there but uh as you're pointing out you know we use these tools they help us identify patterns that are typically present at either tops or bottoms doesn't mean they can't get violated and that's why you use uh position sizing and if you use the proper position sizing you can limit your risk out there and that's really what john is referring to this is all this game here is really all about risk control if we limit our risk and i like to limit it to one percent of my working capital out there in a position size um you know you're going to be in the game forever out there so john always good to speak to you thanks for the call i want you to have a fantastic weekend and we'll look forward hopefully to speaking to you again next week thank you steve you bet that was john from philly we've got the equity futures still pointed higher now futures up 206 nasdaq up 87 seabroads with tfnan we'll be right back if you want to take advantage of this sector now is the time to subscribe to my gold report the gold report is a comprehensive look at the metal sector as well as the markets that move gold which is the currency and bond markets new subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee so you have nothing to lose every monday morning i published a gold report with coverage of gold silver bonds the xAU hui gdx as well as more than 30 different mining equities to see for yourself the types of profitable trades that are recommended within the gold report sign up now by visiting tfnan.com don't miss out on the next great gold trade sign up today are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the bay area including the surrounding saint petersburg tampa and clearwater markets tiger real estate llc is a firm that has extensive experience in the tampa bay area whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value or you're in the market for a second home or investment property tiger realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the tampa bay area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels from the price you should be paying per square foot in certain up and coming areas to the type of cash flow investment properties are capable of creating tiger real estate can help you make the best decision when it comes to all areas of the market before you make one of the biggest decisions of your financial future call tiger real estate llc today at<PHONE_NUMBER> or email us at tiger at tfnan.com that's<PHONE_NUMBER> call us today are china a shares hot or not if you trade china a shares now may be time to take a closer look trade chau or chad directions daily csi 300 china a share bull and bear etf's china a shares in either direction visit direction investments.com today an investor should consider the investment objectives risks charges and expenses of the direction shares carefully before investing the prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus please contact direction shares at<PHONE_NUMBER> the prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principle the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor four side fund services llc this program is brought to you by vista gold traded on the nyse american and tsx under the symbol vgz welcome back folks i'm gonna just uh uh there's a message posted inside the den here from frank trades uh from massachusetts and frank i want to just show you something frank's talking about the new york stock exchange the advanced decline austere that is the second yeah that's a second panel uh that you're looking at on the screen the top panel is the actual new york stock exchange and so this might help you out here frank there's a pattern that forms that helps us to identify bottoms and it's a divergent pattern or at least cautions you against uh at least if you're using the new york stock exchange as an indicator for being long or short um it really helps you so i've got these if you take a look at the red diagonal lines on the new york stock exchange on the price area you can see the prices moving lower if you look at the advanced decline austere now that's the difference between the 39 and 19 period exponents moving average of the actual advanced decline line so that's what it represents so when you see these divergent patterns that are forming out here for example that's what formed at this most recent bottom it's really telling you about caution as well as when you get down in the minus 150 minus 250 level that is telling you that price needs to work off that oversold condition now what price did yesterday was it closed above the zero threshold line closed at 5.34 if price closes above that level today second consecutive close that tells us that buyers have resumed control of the general markets and we likely will see that advanced decline austere move up towards the overbought area towards the plus 150 zone so use that if you're if you're not familiar with that divergent pattern it's very cool when it approaches when it when it begins to form out there because it really tells you about being cautious to the downside out there now let's go to our first request that is coming this is from snp who wanted to take a look at the fang the fang etf out here so we've got the monthly the weekly and the daily time frame out here let's start with the daily time frame for snp and yesterday formed bar number nine of a td9 count so what that tells us is that fang should form a bottom between yesterday and today now let me just see where this is trading in the pre-market if you give me a moment it should be trading higher but let me just make sure fang trade out a 122.99 close at 119 so odds favor that you've got a td9 count bottom the other thing snp that you look at here as you see that oscillator and change lines change from green to red when that's changing from green to red what that tells us is the price oscillator now that's the difference we'll take a look at a price between its 19 and 39 day exponential moving average out there so when that tells us that the price oscillator returns to red tells us the price oscillator has now moved below the zero threshold line below zero bearish directly speaking above zero bullish directly speaking well the oscillator and change line helps us because it tells us when that has taken place now when that has taken place you get that crossover that's when my line will change colors what you then wait for is you wait for a bottom signal the bottom signal could be a a to b equal cd could be erosement of indicator bottom could be wave number seven could be some pattern that you'll use for me here there would be the td9 count and so that's going to suggest that price is going to go approach that 130906 level so that's what the message that's coming from the daily time frame and it would appear that that would be nothing more than just a countertrend move what would say that this is more than a countertrend move would be for fang and i'll move over to the weekly chart now we can see that price has closed last week and now this week it appears let's we get above 128 which is the bottom of its bullish structured weekly profile so as long as price closed below 128 today we'll have two consecutive closes below that and that tells us that countertrend moves will typically if it's just a countertrend move will typically find resistance at the center of its profile 130 371 it's kind of the high for the week so far out here but if price closed below 128 what this is suggesting to us snp is that on a daily basis expect a countertrend move because the weekly what really wants to go target the 10412 level the monthly chart however is saying hey steve i don't know what you're talking about i don't really care about the weekly and the monthly time frames i'm telling you that i found support and support for the monthly time frame is that green oscillator and change line so even though we have a td9 count top out here we have a sell the d-point top that means we have an a to b equal cd that at least on a monthly basis has been confirmed with a bearish engulfing candle out here when you get a top prices just simply it's just telling us it wants to at least pull back and test support well one support level is a green oscillator and change line and that's in fact what has taken place so far now if price were to close below that that by the way is currently printing at let's see your monthly green oscillator and change line at 1704 if price were to close below that then that's telling us that what price wants to do is go target 88 21 to 73 26 so to summarize fang you should expect to anticipate a countertrend move and a countertrend move should take us up towards the 130 906 level that number is literally going to change as price moves higher and lower and uh and if price does do that gets up to 130 906 then it would overtake that 130 370 uh one area and that would suggest perhaps more than a countertrend move out here so those are the levels that i'd be watching and i hope that that helps you out uh let's go to our next question next question coming in from brent in martin is california brent uh good morning to you's out in california so he's up really it's 547 in the morning there and brent wants to take a look at uh microsoft and the ibb so let's put microsoft up on our church we'll look again at these three timeframes monthly weekly and daily time frame well let's go see what kind of signals microsoft is generating for us so in the case of microsoft on a weekly basis much like we were taking a look at for the nq you've got a td9 count bottom and what this suggests to you and i is that price should go target the 268 19 now microsoft is stronger on a monthly basis because price is likely to get back above that 264 33 level that's the bottom of its monthly profile so it's only the 24th next week we'll come back and see where that has closed but if it's above 264 33 then support will have held on a monthly time frame the daily time frame brent shows that yesterday price closed above the top of its daily profile 257 85 when price is above the top of a profile it is bare is bullish directly speaking that then suggests to you and i again that price should go target that weekly oscillator in changeland in the 268 19 level if price can overcome that then you've got resistance at 273 91 and above that it would be in the 293 to 294 level and that's what microsoft is communicating to us let's go take a look at ibb and see what it is so you got microsoft is definitely bullish weekly bullish daily time frame is bullish and the monthly isn't over yet but it looks to me like it's still bullish from the standpoint of price holding support now we take a look at a monthly time frame chart here for the ibb brent man you've got a monthly td9 count bottom that is very likely to form the only thing that would that would say that this has not formed would be on a monthly basis a close above 126 07 so as long as that doesn't happen so you really you're really pulling for between now if you're a long ibb what you're really pulling for is for price not to close above that on a monthly basis if it closed above that it negates the pattern that would be the td9 count pattern and actually suggest to move and to pull back all the way back to 92 45 let's go with the assumption right now that you got a monthly td9 count bottom which you have on a weekly basis is a confirmed broachment to indicator bottom that confirmed back here with a uh bit bullish hammer candle the week of may 13th now this uh last week that was tested and rejected i don't know if it was on lighter volume or not but right now what we have is if price can overcome this the ibb if it can overcome its recent highs that would be in the 1950 level and right now ibb is trading at in the pre-market at 118 90 so if price can overcome that's the recent high out here from may 27 if price can overcome that level the son of weekly basis again 1950 that's going to tell us or confirm that what ibb wants to do is make its move to 135 57 that would be the top of its weekly profile of course the daily as uh that confirmation oh well oh i'm sorry i apologize the daily closed above the top of its daily profile two days ago and had some nice follow through yesterday so yeah it's this most recent highs out here Brent you get above those it's off to the races will it form a monthly td9 count bottom then i don't know but you've got bottoms at this stage here across the board inside of the ibb look right now the reality is that navigating financial markets can be risky markets can be chaotic and difficult to understand having the latest market advice can help you turn this chaos into a key for creating winning trades at tfnn we understand that it can be hard to find reliable market news that's why each of our market experts offers their very own market newsletter a must-have tool for every trader out there striving to find an edge in today's markets tfnn newsletters cover every aspect of the markets so you can analyze the market before you trade try any of our great newsletters risk free with our 30-day money back guarantee just visit the newsletters tab on the front page of tfnn.com tfnn educating investors everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence this mathematical principle is 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home and of course if you're listening live it's 8 54 in the morning and we have made today's show very pertinent i believe for the one o'clock hour out there then uh we've got tom you'll brian coming up with the morning market kickoff right now kicking off the markets you've got the us equity futures trading higher dow's up about six tenths percent 190 points the nasdaq up seven tenths or 86 the es mini is up seven tenths or 25 and the rustles up about 11 points or six tenths percent markets in asia closed higher last night markets in australia closed higher markets in europe are trading higher odds favor markets are going to close higher inside of the u.s. gold's off four bucks effect let's go take a look at a nine panel market update chart just to leave you with the kind of an overview uh from a number of different instruments here so the es mini it's a next uh resistance level is the top of its daily profile that's at 3842 we get a close above 3842 that tells about a change in trend and then the next target is 3887 it will approach 3887 if that spot volatility is able to close below or move below the 50 day expense moving average that's at 2810 so we need that proof out there why because i and i don't have the time to switch over to take a look at the chart out there but those of you are longtime listeners you know that when the spot ball takes is above the 50 day expense moving average prepare for a that's really a bearish directional signal and when price is below that it's a bullish directional signal the nq is trading right now above the top of its daily profile on my black background charts 117 16 suggest a price target of 11891 next that's where the sellers are us dollar index is just consolidated with inside its daily profile that's between 103 62 and 105 56 the goal is trading with inside its or consolidate with inside its daily profile between 1813 and 1879 silver is a struggling it's trading below the bottom of its weekly profile let's see where it closes up the week like three crew forming a new daily profile supportive 103 51 resistance 113 42 natural gas today is going to complete a TD nine count bottom the price is able to close with 635 that suggests to move to 720 out there the 30 year treasury dealing with the sellers that reside between 136 26 and 13809 folks have a fantastic weekend we'll see you on building wealth trading in the stock market seems impossible to most people they think it's too volatile and risky most people aren't going to take the time to educate themselves on how to do it right but you're not most people are you at tfnn you'll get the guidance you need to refine your strategies and techniques to invest like a pro because you'll be a pro all tfnn subscriptions books software and courses are available at tfnn.com and i'm even going to tell you how to get them for less use tfnn's tiger dollars and you'll get up to a 20 bonus on your purchase and once you apply them to your account tiger dollars are 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Welcome this afternoon everybody. My name is Jacob Walsik. I am a principal solution architect with the Rackspace Private Cloud team. This afternoon we are here to talk about three topics that I would like all of our customers to consider before they start talking to us about building their private cloud. It seems like a lot of times we go into these conversations and customers have some preconceived notions about how their experience running VMware is going to translate into their experience owning and operating a cloud. And they don't always think through all of the important bits that change and the mental shift that comes along with moving from a virtualized world to a cloud world. The first of these topics is all about anticipating change. More than likely when you move into the cloud world from the dedicated world things are going to be different. You might be using Microsoft cluster services in your environments. You might be using Red Hat cluster services or any other sort of traditional cluster platform that requires a shared volume for Quorum and all of that fun stuff. Those applications are not going to be able to be forklifted into most cloud environments. You're going to need some other architecture to start thinking of for providing high availability for your applications. You're going to need to look at a option for doing fault tolerance within your application itself. And you're also going to need to start thinking about doing scalability. If your developers don't have experience designing apps for the cloud and they're accustomed to a world where high availability means having two giant web servers with a load balancer in front of them, they may not be ready for a world that's going to expect them to have 16 tiny web servers spread out across a lot of hardware to help mitigate risk. When you look at your existing application catalog and you think about how do I get from where I am to a cloud, you have to sort of figure out what legacy applications I have that aren't going to be able to stick around that I'm either going to have to upgrade or replace. You have to think about applications that might be collecting user data and they expect to find some place in a file system to stick them rather than uploading them to an object store and just tracking a URL or a unique identifier. You also have to think about the, you know, what is it that my applications expect today in terms of, oh, well, I can just go swap out the hard drives for SSDs or I can stick four more nicks in that machine and bind them all together and get more throughput. You have to start thinking about how am I going to address those sorts of changes. Christian here who helped me put together this presentation kind of deemed this as the 30, 30, 30 rule. So you have to figure out what those ratios look like for your application catalog and kind of determine what sort of investment that you're going to have to make to modernize that collection of software. You also have to accept the fact that your APIs are going to change. I've been talking to a lot of folks that are already using OpenStack. They're already very familiar with Nova but maybe they haven't started using Neutron yet in their clouds. That's been a pretty popular theme of conversations that I've had this week with users. When you make the switch from Nova Network to Neutron the whole world changes. A lot of the API calls that you're accustomed to making will continue to work. Nova will pass them through to Neutron but a lot of the advanced functionality that you get from Neutron is only going to be available for the new API. Changes like that are going to happen across the board. The Elbaz platform that's part of Neutron is going to mature at some point in time and you'll be able to put more than two ports behind the same bit. The Nova API will mature over time and you'll have more and more flags that you can pass through around either aggregation zones or hypervisors specific hardware that will change the way that you think about deploying your applications in your environment. You're also at some point in time going to need to think about hybrid. Some of your platforms are going to run in public clouds but they're going to run in private cloud. Some of them might need to live in both. You might need to run primarily in your private cloud and be able to burst into a public cloud. You need to think about how you're going to do that, how you're going to handle the security, how you're going to set up connectivity between these clouds and what that's going to mean to the way that you deploy software today. The second point we want to talk about is thinking like a service provider. In a world where you're running on dedicated servers you have specialized database servers. You have specialized web servers. You have specialized proxy servers. When you move from that to virtualization you probably started standardizing on hardware but the hardware is probably optimized to run VMware not necessarily to be a KVM hypervisor host. One of the most common scenarios we run into are people that are using blades that are just booting ESX off of an SD card and then running all of their storage off of a sand. If you want to keep using VMware as your hypervisor that's great, it'll work. If you want to move to KVM and local storage for all of your VMs those blades are going to become a hindrance because you've only got two disks locally. When you start running 50 operating systems off of two spinning hard drives you're going to run into IO issues. You also want to start thinking about standardizing your tooling. You can provide much better support to your developers if they're all using the same set of tools. They can start to support each other across project teams. You can also have better automation in place and you can have better control of that automation if you're only having to worry about your enterprise chef install not your enterprise chef install and your puppet install and however you're going to manage all your recipes for all these things and the folks that are over there using Salt and all the other pieces. Thinking like a service provider also means that you're going to have to help make these users that you're enabling self-service for aware of what they're consuming. A very common thing that we hear from customers that are moving to a private cloud from a public cloud, whether it's Amazon, whether it's Rackspace, whether it's somebody else is they've got VM creep. They've got 700 VMs. They know what 300 of them are doing. They're not quite sure what those other 400 are there for. They're kind of afraid to delete them because they might have some data on them and if there's just a credit card and it's getting expensed every month, you don't necessarily have insight into where that money is going. Once you own the cloud and you can see all of those VMs and you can show to your users what they're consuming and you can look at the data from Solometer and you can go back to your user and you can say, hey, you've got these 10 VMs, you've got an enormous amount of RAM allocated to them and I have seen zero CPU utilization I need them for the last 30 days. Can we get rid of these? Do you need them? Are they gonna get spun up on the 17th and there's just some scheduled thing I don't know about? You start to gain some insight and you're able to have much more constructive conversations with a group around controlling their cost and how their needs to continue to use giant VMs is going to impact what you're either gonna have to report in your showback or in some cases what you might even be charging back to their department. The last piece is one of the most important pieces and as a private cloud provider, it is one of the most difficult to address. It is planning for integration. Your cloud is not likely going to be a standalone thing. First, it's going to have to live somewhere. Do you have a data center? Do you have more than one data center to provide a disaster recovery site? Do you have a hardware vendor that you like to work with? Do you want to continue owning a data center? Do you want to continue renting space in a data center? Do you want to use a different provider? Do you want to use a Redapt to roll in racks? What do you want to do with that gear? Where do you want it to live? How much of that existing infrastructure are you going to keep using? And also very importantly, how many of those existing processes are going to have to be rebuilt? How many of them are going to go away? You have a process now where someone requests a VM and a human being receives that request, spins the VM up, installs some software on it and then sends them a response, their trouble ticket with some credentials. Do you need to keep that process? Do you want to replicate that in a world where what you're trying to enable is agility and self-service? Some helpful resources here. Doblatory Rackspace Commercial. If you are interested in building a private cloud, we'd be more than happy to talk to you about it. We're going to re-deliver the same content through a webinar at the two weeks from now? 27th. So we are going to talk about this some more. What I would really like to do is start having some questions from you guys. How many of you own clouds today? How many of you are thinking about building clouds? How many of you have started making these decisions and what kind of factors have you found that have really sort of helped you down that path? Please. Hey, I'm Trevor from RMS. Great talk. We're going through this right now. We've been out of cloud for the last couple of years and one of the biggest challenges that I think we've seen is changing people's mindsets, everything on your slides. We have a group of people that have done it and then they're the new people and then the other people that haven't done it. And I think just the biggest thing is the mindsets about the servers, big VMs, thinking about re-architecting your application as far as being monolithic versus clustered and it can expand and all that sort of thing. So yeah, that's great. Thank you. One of the things you mentioned about large VMs, interesting conversation that we have on a pretty regular basis is how do you determine your instance sizes? And it's a pretty basic, you know, mathematic formula.  So rather than giving people the ability to create rectangle shaped or octagon shaped, you define flavors for them that are square shaped so that you can get the most utilization. But that does require re-education. That does require having people aware of what the cloud can do for them and what it can't. I gave a talk on security groups yesterday and somebody asked me, how do I get my customers to stop using IP tables rules inside their VMs and start using security groups? And if they have root access to their VMs, you can't. You know, they can go in there and they can do whatever they want.  Hi, I'm Sridhar from ThoughtWorks. And I've had to be administrative of quite a few private cloud setups at ThoughtWorks. And honestly, they were not clouds. You know, they were just a lot of VMs that we used to spin up and run for our projects. One of the practices that I started to adopt is make sure we have configuration management and then delete some VMs and recreate them and make sure the app still runs. That way I work with the devs so that, you know, we move away from snowflake servers or snowflakes, VMs being their works of art. You cannot recreate them again. And making sure that devs understand that if it ran there today, it better run the next time I spin up a new VM. And one of the things that we moved towards was I did something a little bit radical wherein on one Saturday, I said that non-words every Saturday we're going to delete all these 500 VMs and start spinning them up on demand every Monday. That way, even if you have a build with customized settings for that specific, you know, dev environment or whatever, it does not persist beyond a week. And it better be fixed by the next week. Now, because I'm a dev, I know how to work with devs and get these things sorted out. But we found that helped us move away from a snowflake servers towards what we call Phoenix servers. That is a very aggressive approach and it's a somewhat admirable approach as well. For those of you who aren't aware, Netflix, Adrienne Cockruff started a project a while back called Chaos Monkey that does something similar and the folks at PayPal ported it over to project that I can't remember the name of to have it work with OpenStack. Because Chaos Monkey was designed to run against AWS and it was the exact same sort of idea.  One question. How much of an operational change do you see companies need to do to build a private cloud? Because when I talk to companies that are doing it, they seem to really moved away from that silo mold. Is that something you see as well? It's a pretty substantial operational change. The degree to which it will be impactful largely depends on how the organization runs today. In a group that is, has IT be more siloed? I mean, we have any number of marketing departments from companies that are customers of Rackspace's traditional hosting platform because we can stand up servers, we can stand up in a full blown environment with storage and network devices and whatever in less than a month versus them having to go through a 10 month process. So even with dedicated gear where we feel like that's a slow process we still move faster than their internal procurement program. So some of it is that, some of it is, okay, so I'm going to be able to take that person who received that trouble ticket and laid down the Windows image or copied the master VM for a Windows VM and then went in and installed and made sure all my security software and all that stuff is in place. I'm going to be able to take that person and I'm going to be able to have them go and do something more valuable. I'm going to have them evaluating the next generation desktop platform. I'm going to have them building automation for my application deployments.  And the customers that we have that look at a move to cloud as an opportunity to get more valuable time out of their staff. They're the ones who have the most success with it and they're generally the ones that their staff is the most excited about adopting it because they don't look at it as, oh, well, you're going to do this automation thing and then my job is going to go away. They look at it as, oh, we're going to do this cloud thing and now my job is going to be more interesting. I'm not going to be doing repetitive tasks anymore. Thank you. I'm an engineer. My thought process is a little different. So I'm going to ask two questions. One, the word cloud is used and abused, you know? VM shop is not what you're calling a cloud. So one, if you describe what, when you say cloud, what you mean more IaaS or D-Bass. I'm largely referring to the infrastructure as a service platform that is sort of the core for like any of the public clouds that you're familiar with, the Rackspace cloud, Amazon, Linode, any of those. And I'm also referring to private clouds based on OpenStack, whether it's our platform, Piston, Morantis, you know, any of the others that is the, you know, it's the infrastructure as a service piece. It has an authentication piece. They normally have some block or object storage bits, but I am referring to, you know, API enabled infrastructure as a service. Okay, thank you. And then the second is, you know, how do you, when a customer wants to choose or the company wants to choose why OpenStack over AWS or over, you know, whatever else is out there, what do you see as advantages and disadvantages of both? So the why AWS versus OpenStack is largely a, more often than not, comes down to a cost play. You know, Amazon has committed themselves to a price war where the race or the race to zero for the cost of compute. That's they cut their prices twice a year and it's a regular sort of cadence. And if all you care about is I want the cheapest thing, then Amazon or Google is a clear option. For most general compute scenarios, a public cloud has a fixed cost. I pay 30 cents an hour for a VM of this size. And if it runs for, you know, five minutes or if it runs for 50 days, I paid 30 cents an hour for that VM. At some point I might get a discount.  But when I have enough of those VMs, it's going to be more expensive for me to keep paying that flat rate per hour for every single VM than it is for me to go out and build my own cloud. So you either have to have a provider who has a flexible enough cost model to support you scaling in that way, or you have to accept that, okay, I'm at the point where I have 2,000 VMs that are running all the time and it's going to be cost effective for me to go in out and build my own cloud because as I build that cloud and my footprint's larger, the sunk cost of the firewall or the load balancer, the storage appliance starts to average itself out across all of those VMs. The choice of which platform to use, should I use OpenStack, should I use CloudStack, should I use Eucalyptus, could be purely philosophical or it could come down to finding a service provider that you really enjoy working with because they push all the right buttons in terms of what you're looking for from services and that service provider happens to use PlatformX. So PlatformX becomes an obvious choice because the functional difference for basic compute is kind of minimal and what's more important when you go to build your own cloud is largely who is going to run it, how are they going to run it and where is it going to live, more so than it has to be OpenStack because OpenStack is open source and that's better than something else. Yeah, if you want to leverage existing infrastructure, some of our customers, they seem to be, we don't find many customers that are in the middle on this opinion, they either have existing data centers and they want to continue using them and maybe they have some sort of regulatory reason that they have to stay in their own data center or they want out of the data center business, they've been running data centers for a long time, they're sick of doing it, they never want to have to buy another server again. So that can definitely influence your decision as well. A minute or two left, right? Yes. Okay, I'm Daniel from Omeo University. We're looking into cloud services for researchers who need cloud infrastructure, IAS, but I wanted to ask you all the different customers you're working with, what are people using it for? He talked a little bit about strategies to handle VMCRETE, but that's going to vary wildly depending on what the users need and what they want. Some people need a little tough love, others will hate you for it, so. So we have research organizations where they are using it for researchers to either run simulations, store data, whatever the case may be there. We have a lot of test dev shops, so they spin up infrastructure service clouds, and what they're looking to do is they're kind of fighting the shadow IT battle. They know that their developers have gone out and thrown down a credit card at Amazon, and that unless they can offer a service that at least smells a little bit like Amazon, they can't get that computing back in-house, and some of those customers, especially the ones that are in heavily regulated industries, have concerns about a developer playing fast and loose with company data. So they're doing the development there, they're doing their continuous integration testing there. It's not dissimilar from the way that the foundation runs all the, whatever the CI test for OpenStack itself, and we also have customers that are running production applications, mostly like scalable web apps, and they're starting to kind of explore the true flexibility of hybrid where they have eight or 10 applications that are running in a cloud, and if one of them needs to scale beyond a certain level, being able to leverage some sort of private network connectivity to be able to start spinning up resources in our public cloud. Anybody else? Okay. Yes. I'd like to share some lessons learned about coaxing the IT teams to say, yeah, it looks, our jobs are not on edge. How do you think? So, I generally find two different models for how a large enterprise starts the cloud journey. It generally involves a new leader coming in, so you've got a new CIO, and they got hired because they said cloud enough times in their interview, and they lay down the law one of two ways. They say, all right, June 1st, everything that we deploy after June 1st has to be in a cloud, or they look at their catalog and they look at the natural sort of life cycle. The, you know, most enterprises have like a three to seven year life cycle on a given application environment based on the hardware and the software and all that's fun stuff, and they say, okay, anytime we do an upgrade from now on, the new environment has to be into the cloud. And so, when we start having the conversation at that level, sometimes we are, you know, we become part of the sales pitch to the rest of the organization. And the organizations that do have a lot of the siloed IT, I spend a lot of my day making sure that backup tapes are in the right place, and I'm right clicking on VMs, and I'm replicating them, and I'm making sure they come online, and I'm sending somebody credentials. The shops that have that sort of process are generally far more open to the idea. They, you know, there was at least one occasion where I saw a man genuinely like excited to come back to work tomorrow. He's like, wow, so we're gonna get this cloud thing, and I can finally finish this monitoring project that I've been working on forever so that the marketing people will stop bugging me when the website gets slow. I'll be able to know before they know. You know, so it's, it really is. I mean, there are gonna be places where you're gonna have the, you know, you have a model where they still have computer operators, and they've been a computer operator for 20 years, and they follow that manual, and if you ask them to work outside of that manual, they have a hard time with it, but there's not many of those shops around anymore. Do you have a recommended path for a smaller, medium-sized IT company that's just getting into some type of cloud setup to import their virtual machines?  Do you have a recommendation? Pulling in the one-off servers is generally a bad idea. You're kind of violating sort of the tenants of why it is that you're adopting the cloud. You may find, thinking back to the 30, 30, 30, you may find that some of those one-off servers aren't going to come into the cloud. You may find that you have a Oracle Rack Cluster that's sitting there in the next rack over, cabled into the same VLANs that is going to continue to be a physical Oracle Rack Cluster because maybe you're bound to Spark, maybe you're bound to Oracle, like whatever the case may be, that's not gonna be part of the cloud. You almost always have some sort of application transformation that comes along with it. The three-tier web application model that we've been, you know, that's idea that we've all been familiar with for 10 years now comes over very easily. You know, the proxy layer, the application layer, the web server layer, like all that stuff comes over just fine. Sometimes the data tier can be a bit dicey, but you know, those pieces are already designed to be loosely coupled and they're horizontally scalable. And so you can run small blocks and you can have lots of small blocks. You can spread them out across a lot of hardware and you know, you generally want to stick with a public cloud if possible when you're in that starting mode because a public cloud gives you access to a lot more hardware than you can afford to put in a private cloud. There is a point at which you need so much, you need a certain number of hypervisors before a private cloud becomes something that you want to use for a production environment. If you only have two hypervisors and one of those hypervisors fails, you have lost half of your capacity, potentially half of your VMs. If you have 20 hypervisors and one of those hypervisors fails, you've lost 5% of your capacity. And the model that this man described earlier of randomly killing off some of those VMs or maybe even randomly pulling the network cable out of a hypervisor? If you only got two hypervisors, that's gonna be a far more impactful process than if you've got 10 or 20. It sounded like a lot of your discussion. It was kind of an implicit assumption that moving to a cloud is good for, just your general assumption with what you're talking about. But another common thing that I keep hearing at this particular summit is that many parts of OpenStack in particular aren't quite up to the 5.9s level. Have you had experience with moving applications that need the 5.9s and are strongly state dependent to cloud type systems? If you have an application that is heavily state dependent and relies on, as I mentioned earlier, like some of the traditional models for doing clustering, where I've got two machines, they have a shared volume, they've got a heartbeat cable, and if this one dies, this one grabs that volume and takes over, that's not a model that translates well into most infrastructure as a service cloud platforms. And that is not an application that is ready to be moved to a cloud in its native state. As a general rule, when a customer approaches us about building a cloud, they have already decided that there is some benefit to them of building the cloud. I will not say that building clouds is universally good, that you should cram it down everyone's throat. You definitely wanna be sure that it's an organization that's at a point that they're ready for it. We've built clouds for customers that their CIO thought it was a great idea, and we've never gotten a single ticket from this customer what's going on, and we call back over there and we talk to somebody, either an operator, a director, a sysad, whatever, and they may not even know they had it. They forgot about it, they never started using it. So, I mean, forcing cloud upon people is not very helpful, and moving to cloud is something that you should do with a purpose. You're looking to gain agility. You're looking to enable self-service for some portion of your business. You're looking at being able to move to a pure commodity hardware model, and you're okay with the software cost, the software development cost is gonna go along with it. There are a number of things about adopting cloud that are very beneficial to enterprises, but if someone's not ready to adopt, then you don't wanna force it upon them. Well, if no one else has any questions, thank you all for coming out this afternoon. Oh, we got one more. Just on your point about the question that the gentleman over there asked, about some applications not being ready, and this is my opinion, by the way, right? So, being a VMware shop, and we're looking at Alpastak, some of those applications that can't be moved can actually be moved, right, and you can do it with VMware, and I'm not of you and myself, but I work for Armist as well. But bearing in mind that when you're looking to doing this, this is the lessons we've learned over time, and our application isn't really the most cloud-friendly application I've ever come across. But I went to an Amazon site a few years ago, and Amazon presented it in quite a good way, that they said, when you wanna move to the cloud, there's three sort of phases, and one of them is that you literally get a forklift truck, pick up your product, and just dump it in the cloud, and you're not doing anything more than saving operational costs. But your application isn't cloud-friendly, right? So, for example, this scenario that the gentleman over there gave, like we have SQL clusters, for example, and SQL clusters aren't great, they wouldn't work really well with KVM and whatnot, but on VMware, it works great, and as you've probably seen in some of the summit talks that people have done, you can put Alpastak on top of VMware and still do what you were doing before, and continue using the state hardware, so it doesn't mean you can't move, this is a phase of moving. And then the next phase is, okay, now can we look at changing that? And the last phase is, okay, we're gonna actually embrace cloud technologies like Redis or Mongo or whatever it might be that help you move to that phase, so I think saying that most use cases, I mean, I have asked personally, again, my limited experience, I still have to come across something that you couldn't move, and so I just want to state that. It's definitely possible to use vSphere as your hypervisor and still get all the benefits you get out of VMware today, and be able to adopt OpenStack, essentially it's an alternate control plane for your VMware environment. That is a very, very feasible model. VMware is happy to help you down that path. It's really just comes down to, is it worth the investment of putting OpenStack on top of it and still paying all of your vSphere licenses? Is that the model that you want to go to? If you listen to any of the NOVA sessions about alternate hypervisors, if you talk about any of the storage sessions about using a NetApp or an EMC, these commercial, expensive, supposedly storage appliances, the reason this whole ecosystem of hypervisors and different server families and different storage platforms exist is because they're all right for somebody. Based on what my point is that if you want to move to the cloud, you can do it, but it's just the stages you might have to use VMware for the next six months and then leave VMware and then start going. But you can't just decide, okay, I'm gonna use OpenStack today or CloudStack or wherever it might be, AWS. But it's just, they are processes. And again, the point was just about, look at saying that Oracle is the only thing I can think of, right? Because Oracle is really, yes, and Oracle people are here. But it's very painful with the Oracle Rack licenses having to be on physical hardware. But that's the only thing I can think of. But generally, otherwise you just, you can do these tricks around, I'll use VMware for six months or a year to get everyone on board and then slowly coach them into saying, well, this doesn't really work if you wanna start doing the Amazon-like stuff and then move them onto different technology, et cetera, et cetera. Yeah, that's very true. If that's a path that you wanna go down, it's definitely one that can be followed. All right. Well, thanks everybody for coming out this afternoon.


So my talk is about the lower one, the lower one of the cost of the external learnings. Okay, so the background motivation is the long-term security for the lattice-based crystal. So as you may know, the NIST post-contern project is going on and they want the scheme with the long-term security for the next 20 years or 30 years after us. So for this purpose, we need to understand the performance of the co-attacking algorithm for these critical systems. So now the majority of candidates are lattice-based, so this is my motivation. So the cost for the attacker is roughly the algorithm efficiency over the computing power and which is upper bound of the ratio at now. And this cost is lower bounded by the limit of these materials. So now a lot of efforts have been made to find the upper bound, for example, the many algorithms and increasing of the computing powers. But on the other hand, a few efforts have been made for establishing the lower bound. So we consider the lower bound. So lower bound is roughly speaking the limitation of this ratio and we consider the limit of the algorithm efficiency. But it's a hard problem to prove the limit of the efficiency of any attacking algorithm for one problem. So also this is very useful, but this is a very, very hard problem. So probably this is similar to the P versus NP problem. But now I think we have to understand the limit of some major algorithms. So for example, the sieve algorithm for the sieve algorithm, so they have a heuristic lower bound in the classical setting and in the quantum setting. But no one said about the elimination algorithm. So we have solved this problem. So this is a topic of this talk. So this is the outline of the theoretical result. We have proved a lower bound for the cost of the pruner lattice elimination. So this lattice elimination which is used to solve the SVP or VDD. And the advantage of our result is so easy to compute. And our lower bound is so reasonably close to the upper bound. So roughly speaking, experimentally this is less than 20% in exponent. And our result is for the classical enum and can be adapted to the quantum elimination algorithm. So these are the advantage of our result. But on the other hand, so now we don't know how to adapt our technique to other algorithm such as discrepancy or sieve algorithms. So this is a major open problem at now. So next is the outline of the application result. So these glasses show the lower bound of the hardness on the SVP beta on the classical hardness and the quantum hardness. So for the pruner elimination, we have two scenarios on the progress of the lattice reaction algorithm. So the green line is the state of the line of the state of the algorithm. And the red line is a constructive setting for this curve. So we assume that someone will find a very, very strong lattice reaction algorithm. But as you can see in the classical hardness, in the classical setting, the curve of the sieve algorithm is lower. So the sieve algorithm is better. But in the quantum setting, so you can see the lower bound of the elimination algorithm is better than the sieve algorithm. So this just means that some conservative designers need to update some parameters. So this is the outline of the result.  So this is the outline of the elimination algorithm. Now this algorithm is the core part of the lattice reaction algorithm. For given basis, it can eliminate short lattice vectors. And it is actually a depth first search of the three, depth first search of the elimination three depending on the input basis and the given radius. So one drawback of this algorithm is too slow if we want the exact algorithm. But if we consider the probabilistic algorithm, we know that if we want the probabilistic algorithm, this is much faster than the exact algorithm. So next is the Gaussian heuristics. So consider a lattice in the n dimensional space. And normal shaped object is in the n dimensional space. Then we have the number of lattice point inside of the s is approximated by this fraction. So this approximation can be used to estimate the number of nodes inside of this elimination tree. And also can be used to estimate the cost of the elimination. So under this Gaussian heuristics, the total cost of the tree elimination is approximated by this sigma, this sigma, the sum of this fraction. And here the CK, CK is an object defined by G and a paper that named the cylinder intersection. But this is formally defined by this formula. And so roughly speaking it's the intersection of the K dimensional cylinders in a dimensional space. So you can see the example for three dimensional cylinder intersection at this. The formula is here and the shape is around here. So with this preparation, we know that the cost of the Pruendo elimination is given by the minimum of this optimization problem. So we have constant probability defined by this one. So this means that to find the cost of the Pruendo elimination, we need to solve this optimizing problem. In other words, we have to optimize n variables r1 to rn. So this is not an easy problem. So also this is not an easy problem, but the effect of this strategy is very nice. So for example, if it takes 50% of the success probability, the speed up is about 10 to 10. So this is much faster than the exact algorithm. So this is the advantage of the GNR strategy. But on the other hand, there is some drawbacks. So now there is no efficient method to find the optimal radius r1 to rn. So to tackle this problem, we propose the variant of the closed center method, but it's not enough now. So the shape of the resulting graph looks good, but we don't know if it is an optimal one. And the second drawback is the non-trivial cost of lower bound is known. Of course, we can consider the naive type of lower bound. Naive type of lower bound is possible, but it's not useful. So for this problem, we propose the first lower bound result. So this lower bound is our contribution. So next is experimentally. So what is experimentally? This is a quote to show our lower bound from the geometry. So formally, experimentally is given by this sentence. So consider if we have any object C inside of the n-dimensional ball, and consider it's also a projection onto rk. And suppose the volume of this projection is bounded by m, then the volume of C is bounded by some volume of the C prime. So where C prime is the intersection of the volume and k-cylinder. So what means that if volume of C is big, then the projection must be big. So here the illustrative example is shown in here. For k-2, for the three-dimensional space and the projection in two dimensions. So from this picture, the area of the projection is the same, but the volume of the C is always less than volume of C prime. So this is an addition. So this reveals the reaction of the volumes. So this here is an australic projection. So how to use the experimentally to bound the inner relation? So the first one is a reminder. And we can observe that each, so this Ck is the australic projection of the Cn. So this relation implies that the volume of Cn is bounded by the volume of Cn prime. So where the Cn is some intersection of the ball and k-cylinder. So now we get the upper bound of Cn. So from this relation, so after some calculation we get some, we get the analytic formula for the upper bound of the Cn. But in this upper bound, so we have R prime k, which is the radius of the k-ball, the first volume is the same as equal to Ck. So this relation actually is a lower bound for the Rk prime. So from this relation, so we can have the lower bound for Rk by using the inverse of this function, which is the inverse incomplete base function. So this is some kind of special function, but easily computed by using some library. So actually we can compute its lower bound by using this code, just 10 line, about 10 line in C++ code by using the boost library. And also this is very fast, 10 millisecond and data mistake. So in contrast to find the upper bound, so we need about 900 line in C++ code, and it takes about 10 second or 1 minute. So this shows that the computation of the lower bound is much simpler than the computation of the upper bound now. So this is our first result, and I want to show some experimental result. The radius of tightness is here. So for some setting, the red curve is the upper bound computed by cross entropy, and the blue point lower bound computed by formula. So you can see they are close to each other. And beside the tightness of the radius, the number of nodes are also tight. So you can see the red point as computed upper bound, computed upper bound from the G and R formula, and the blue point computed lower bound. So the gap between the upper bound lower is usually less than 20% in log scale, but it's an experimental observation. So this is our first result. So secondly, we have shown the lower bound for the randomized enamelation. So the G and R extra improving strategy proposes that if we have many random bases, then doing the enamelation with a tiny probability makes it much faster than the single enamelation. So actually the total cost, if we use the many number of bases, the expected total cost is much smaller than the single enamelation. But it was unclear that there is a lower bound or not. So in this paper, we showed that these values are bounded from lower by a constant, and this constant is independent of the number of bases. So this is the outline of our linear lower bound. So we proved that for given bases on the radius, there is a constant CBR. There is a constant CBR, the cost of the enamelation, the proven enamelation with a probability P is bounded lower by P times this constant. And also we have showed this cost over P goes to this constant if the probability goes to 0. So this means our estimation is very tight. And this inequality implies the limitation of the randomization. So if we can use infinitely many bases, the total cost of the extreme pruning strategy is bounded lower by a constant by giving the b minima and r. So the next problem is what is b mean to achieve the lower bound of the C. But now it's still unclear. So to estimate this C, we put two scenarios, the state-of-the-art scenario. The state-of-the-art scenario is that b mean is the HKD basis in practice, HKD basis. So this scenario assumes that the HKD basis is the best basis in the future, a practical best basis in the future. But we have another scenario, the conservative one. The conservative one is the approximate, is from the theory of the ranking basis. So this scenario, the constant CBR is much smaller than that of the HKD. So today no one has to compute it. So the next is us. So we shall describe again. So here's the lower bound cost and the CBR bound in the two scenarios, the state-of-the-art and the conservative one. And I say again, for the quantum scenario, the conservative design need to update some parameters following this graph. So I go to the concrete image. So we have proved the lower bound cost for the GNR pruned enamelation with some probability. And this is the first use of the experimentary to the cryptography, maybe that is crystal. And we show, we update some lower bound cost for the SPP beta using the quantum enum and classical enum and quantum enum. So the next is the final slide. Okay, so we think we have a lot of things to do, but the territorial one is close. So to get tight upper bound or lower bound, and the next one is how to adapt our theory to other algorithms such as the discrete pruning. Okay, thank you for your attention.