Hey everyone, how's it going out there? Hope everyone's having a good day so far Just gonna fire off this discussion about Really what I'm seeing in the markets Gonna talk a little bit more about Some of the technicals some of the other drivers that are going on of course you can check this out on YouTube You can check this out on Twitter and otherwise and just give me a moment I'm just getting everything all set up here. So alrighty So this is a segment. I'm gonna call back to the futures with me marks markets in mayhem and we're gonna talk about a Couple of different markets here the S&P the NASDAQ the Russell oil gold Bonds and the dollar and just got it got it go through all these and talk about what I'm seeing and what I think We're setting up for as we navigate the week ahead Of course, I hope everyone's having a good trading day so far Give me a moment. I'm just popping this out there So let's kick it off first. Let's talk a little bit about me My real trading journey began in 2005 funding my own account and trading stocks then moving on to options futures and forex I navigated through the great financial crisis Which helped me to better appreciate the importance of understanding intermarket dynamics momentum and macro and particularly how they all Potentially can interact. I think that's a really important part of appreciating Really, you know staying power in the markets. And so my approach is systematic. I back test I build models. I trade off of a system. I do not just trade, you know, looking at a chart and winging it I really try to be very thorough and that helps me to be more consistent. It helps me to be more disciplined It helps me to not take some of the trades that I don't believe have a lot of potential And that it also helps me to stay in the trades that I feel could actually do better So it's kind of a win-win to have that systematic approach and I began working in book map We're working with book map in early 2022 because I really saw a great value in the way their platform Including the heat map icebergs and stops work. I Found this to be really a game changer for me and multiple timeframes as well So we'll talk a little bit more about that but there'll be some cool Information about how I use book map as well as some discounts So you can take advantage of if you're interested in checking it out and then after I really learned book map I Found there was one piece that I felt if I added into it could actually jump start my trading journey even more and that piece was the idea of Having options visualized right inside book map as well Right because if I could see how options were moving the market that could give me an edge So let's go through the disclaimer real quick I know this is everyone's favorite part of the presentation all book map limited materials information and presentations are for educational purposes only and should Not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations Trading futures equities and digital currencies involve substantial risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors Past performance is not necessarily Indicative of future results. So just wanted to put that all out there. So you all know so we're all on the same page Now let's take a look at the Nasdaq McClellan oscillator here. I have that on screen What am I looking at? I'm looking at breadth and momentum and I'm seeing it not really show Anything too impressive here. We're just near all-time highs and yet you wouldn't really know it looking at this chart You're really not seeing that thrust that I'd like to see You know, we really do want to see a broadening out to show that a market that's making all-time highs has staying power So of yet, we're not seeing it doesn't mean it won't happen But I would like to see it happen sooner than later because I think some risks are beginning to develop on the other side of this Now let's talk about skew skew is a measure of looking at how well hedged the market is through the lens of put premium versus call premium on the S&P 500 index. Why does that matter? because that's the biggest hedging vehicle that exists and Since the 1987 crash skew has always tilted more towards puts and calls as Value at risk calculations have changed and become more rigorous now. Why is this important to us as traders? Because when skew isn't as high But positioning is pretty stretched and we can see that in single stock options We can see that in futures positioning it tells us we're not in a particularly well hedged market and this matters also as we get closer to starting March and those Resuming that resuming of flows that help to bid up the market if we don't have That much skew then those flows can be somewhat subdued, right? So that means you don't have the same level of that passive implied bid kind of pushing things higher So I think that's important to take into consideration as we're Approaching the market today, you know, we're not quite yet in that point where those flows are back But as we get into the later part of this week, they will be and this is going to be happening around the same time We get GDP and PCE and other data Now hedge funds are extremely leveraged on the gross side That means the long and short side of their book are very very extended in terms of their exposure In fact, it's 290% which is the highest it's ever been Now what does that mean? It means that some of the single stocks and macro products are crowded into Can see squeezes particularly on days when their lungs are being punished, right? So we know hedge funds have been piling into some of these single stock shorts Mara has been a good example of that and the kind of squeezes it sees as a result have a lot to do with hedge funds covering as Momentum traders buy in and kind of squeeze these hedge funds out on the other side It means they're very crowded into their long mag five or mag seven trade, right? So as you see Say for example a NASDAQ down day You may have a bid in the Russell or you may have a bid in biotech or or non profitable growth because those are areas Where the hedge funds tend to be pretty short so you can have these days where there's these Divergences that don't necessarily seem like they make a lot of sense on the surface But when you dive in further you can actually see that there is More substance to it, right? And that's why I like to look at this because when you see hedge fund leverage this high it is important It does have an impact on price discovery dynamics particularly in those more crowded trades Now let's take a look at the NASDAQ composite versus tenure note futures They typically enjoy a rather strong positive correlation That is to say the NASDAQ moves in the inverse of tenure rates and with tenure note prices We do have a send a seven-year note auction coming up today just after 1 p.m So that'll be really interesting to watch But I think that this chart illustrates that there is some growing risk that interest rates could present to NASDAQ stocks here And we do have some events this week that could move rates now just as a bit of foreshadowing This came out from Bloomberg recently that strong labor market You know basically the labor market not really showing any signs of slowing down That's allowing the Fed to be more patient here. So we have both Non-farm payrolls re-accelerating and I know they've been revised lower You know month after month, but they're still re-accelerating last reading was Fiat 353,000 and the last our average hourly earnings gain month over month was 0.6% Now when you annualize that that does create a pretty big kerfuffle for the Fed because that would annualize to about 7.2% Now we'll have to see how our average hourly earnings Manifest from here But this has been one of the big reasons that prices and services have remained resilient And in many cases continue to rise like in transportation and shelter and travel and leisure And the fed's preferred inflation gauge PCE will get that information later this week It is expected to re-accelerate and that again does create a bit of a concern Because that re-acceleration could give the Fed pause about the plans to try to hike And when those plans may happen and I'm sorry to cut and when those plans may happen And how much they may cut hiking is on my mind because there's a lot of things We're seeing that actually could portend to a potential hike at some point if things change on the inflation front You've got the market near all-time highs as well as many housing prices You've got crypto running not a lot of signs that are saying hey, it's time to cut right away And also we've got financial conditions Easier now than they were before the Fed first started hiking So in many ways you could say really the Fed's hikes haven't had a lot of influence on the market Now let's look at tech stock valuations rather extended here coming off of their highs But still this is an area to concern ourselves with should interest rates go lower right all these intern market dynamics They do relate to each other and rates on the long end going higher changes how we value stocks So it is something to pay attention to and I do have some charts. We'll talk about with that Specifically, but first let's talk about what hedge funds are doing on the other side They're dumping tech stocks as folks like us retail are buying the same. That's not really what we want to see I think that we are starting to see a larger exit from institutions and some of the more crowded trades So it's something to be just a little bit weary of Because if we do have a move down that's going to start to catch up and you could start to see a greater exit from those same popular stocks Now this is an alarming chart. I share it because it's something that Has been talked about a lot, but now we're reaching a new extreme US market breadth is the weakest since 2009 and that is the S&P 5000 market cap relative to the equal weight index Okay, so what that's telling you is equal weights just not performing the same way as market cap weight And you can shake this up a number of different ways You can look the mag 7 versus the equal weights or versus the market cap way to s&p You can obviously use this ratio chart or others And you can use other measures of breadth like the number of stocks above their 200 day or 50 or 20 day moving average All these are showing us that there's still a lack of participation, but here's a really easy way of showing it Here's the market heat map across All the u.s listed equities. This is from finvis. Their site's pretty cool You can check it out. They've got a lot of different tools on it And this is showing us that this isn't how this really hasn't been a market of equal participation There's been a lot of parts of the market that just haven't participated. This is year to date So you can see that and how that could be a concern when the market's hitting all-time highs And yet there's a whole bunch of stocks that aren't really falling along including one of the former leaders apple Now let's look at options positioning as we head into the trading day We've got an implied open of a gain of about one 12th of 1% here from the s&p. It's uh Looking like implied up about six handles here So that puts us just a little higher than spot was on this chart when I made it But basically what this is showing us is we do have some significant positioning here at 5100 At 50 50 and of course at 5000. These are key levels So if the market pulls back a bit, I think 50 50 could be a reasonable area of support and 5000 is a huge area of potential support On the other side of that 5100 could provide some resistance Now what we would want to see to say that resistance may not be such a factor is Positioning continuing to roll up That would be seeing more and more interest at calls at 5200 5250 and so forth We're not seeing that quite yet So I do believe 5100 is a key level to watch on the upside and of course 5000 on the downside really really big area of potential support. These are spx levels You can adjust them over to es. I think the delta is about 14 points right now Speaking of es here is my latest chart looking at the technicals on es And we can see here. We're just below a pretty important area of resistance that 50 93 We haven't really been able to hold above that area for more than let's say You know, they basically the last couple trading days. We've challenged that area. We've fallen back We did have one day where we held above it I think looking at how we hold 50 50 today in particular on es is going to be really important And remember that's going to be above that 50 50 level on spx right because we do have a delta between the two contracts But nevertheless, I think if we can break above 50 93 75 we've got room to the upside That's going to probably take us top to the the value area, which would be around 51 20 So right now path of least resistance remains higher in the intermediate term But in the short term we could consolidate these gains a little bit and possibly retrace I think it's going to be all about interest rates in the dollar in terms of how the s and p trades today And remember once again, we do have that seven-year auction coming in just after 1 p.m So I think that'll be pretty important to take into consideration as well Next we have the nasdaq 100 futures contract for march We could see once again resistance overhead that 18,044 25 levels what I've marked off I think that's a really key area if we can break above it I don't see any reason this index can't try to make an all-time high But for right now, we're sort of consolidating between there and 17 9 28 50 I think if we slip below 17 9 28 50, we've got 17,731 50 And then we've got the point of control, which is just below that and then finally 17,484 Those are those key areas of support I'd be watching But again for the nasdaq path of least resistance in the intermediate term likely higher Right, but as we're going into today, we are kind of in a market that's in more of a resting state It's more going sideways over the last three days And we need to break out of this range up or down to get a sense of direction The Russell looks interesting here. The Russell's actually looking stronger overall than the s and p And the nasdaq with how it's behaving Some of this is going to be short covering from those crowded hedge funds that really love shorting the Russell It feels like they really want to short the Russell to zero as much as they possibly can But on the other side of it, you know, there is appetite for small caps And we have seen that appetite growing as the year has gone on So we'll be watching the Russell today that 20 47 90 level that next area of resistance We want to see it climb above and then 20 69 40 becomes a pretty logical area of potential extension Next up, we've got crude oil crude oil when I was making this charts trading at 77 40 I'm right now looking at 76 41 is my bullish pivot So above that level and I'm inclined to take long trades, but I do want to see this break above 77 84 So we get a chance at 78 91. I do think from here, however The chances are that oil gets to about 85 86 are pretty strong over the next month or two Then we've got gold everyone's favorite shiny thing Gold is looking like it's still stuck in a state of consolidation But it is trying to make a push part of that push is Longer end yields are starting to sort of flatten out after their recent rise and the dollars Making a bit of a stair step pattern lower. So gold could have a bit of room here I still think gold's got to prove itself though. So I'm looking for gold to push above 20 49 20 And then I think we have a chance at 20 71 50 above there. We have a chance at 2100 Next we have the two-year note futures, which look like they're ready to continue moving lower If you're called last week, I showed this chart saying we're really looking for that 101 28 level to crack it did so I could see the two-year note futures continuing to grind lower Meaning two-year yields move higher. This is a repricing of the Fed And their resolve the market still thinks they're going to cut more likely more times and more aggressively In terms of timing than they are I think that that's most likely we get maybe one or two Fed cuts this year at most three and they probably start in July So this this contract could have room lower on the basis of Readjusting to the reality of the Fed versus what the market was initially pricing in which was as much as six cuts earlier this year Here we've got the 10-year note futures. This is basing. This one's looking a little bit more constructive We might have seen the downside complete in this one. We're kind of basing around 109 16 And it's been something the other area where the market's found interest in buying It's also going into a lower volume node every time we see that sort of look below There's demand that comes back in we get pulled back into this higher volume node. That's not a coincidence The market's interested in transacting here and as long as it is this is a contract That's in that auction state of not really seeing excess in demand or supply just consolidating Building up some potential energy for a bigger move later And we'll have to see what that looks like. Maybe pce or gdp this week will give us a little bit more of a clue Then we finally have the us dollar index here, which you can see is making that stair step pattern lower 103 64 is going to be a pretty important level. I think if we break below that we get 103 40 And then we get pulled into that big volume node below So we're sort of in a decision zone right now if we do get pulled into that big volume node below You can see what happened last time That was a um, you know something that that the market traded we kind of got stuck there, right So it wouldn't be too surprising if we do get pulled lower into this volume node here That the dollar sort of consolidates between 103 and 103 40 for a while That would not be a terribly surprising outcome So we're going to get right into book map But before we do i'm just going to talk about some of my work that you can follow Obviously you can follow me on twitter and on youtube my handle on both is mayhem four markets That's mayhem number four markets my short term trading ideas coaching and tools can be found at trader aid.com You can get 20 off of your first month or quarter with the code mayhem 20 at checkout It's a limited time offer and my new advanced spx options visualizer is available on the book map marketplace You can check that out by visiting trader aid.com slash sp x also You can get up to 40 off of bookmark book map. I'm sorry by visiting trader aid.com slash book map That's trader aid.com slash book map scroll down to the specials and you can see those discounts My long-term trading and investing ideas research and consulting of the services are available at macro visor.com And set your calendars. I stream regularly including for book map every tuesday at 9 a.m So be sure to join me here and without further ado We're going to dive right into book map as we get ready for the market to open So let me just take a moment to adjust my charts here. I've got a little bit of everything on screen nasdaq Russell gold crude course s and p and then the treasury contracts for the twos the tens the thirties And the euro And the yen so we'll be covering all of that this morning and more And i'm going to take a brief pause here if anyone has any questions about anything that i've talked about Please feel free to ask it this time All right, so we're going to dive right in so we can see on the screen here. This is the uh Book map contract for s and p 500 e-mini futures in march Right, we're looking at that. That's the most liquid contract We'll continue to look at that contract until it's time to roll Which I typically roll the contract the week of exploration both for my own book map and also for how I Encode the spx options visualizer and i'm really keying off of where volume is right So when volume starts to trade the most at a certain contract, that's when I move to that contract That helps me with execution It helps me to follow where the liquidity is and of course book map gives us a really good view of that liquidity So it's important to you know be able to see what is Happening in the market where bigger players are expressing their interest in transacting, right? So on screen we can see the wall of calls above us here. This is going to adjust to about 51 10 Okay, so I think the delta is actually about 10 points here. Let me just take a moment to look at that Yeah, that rounded delta that I have calculated every night between es and spx is 10.5 points All right, so for you all that are keeping track at home The delta there is 10.5 points All right, so that means the call wall puts us at 5100 spx or 51 10 50 Yes, so you can mark that down If you're keeping track at home, we've got this gamma one level. This is the largest area of gross gamma positioning near spot And this is going to be about 50 50 spx or 50 60 50 es Right, so those are pretty key levels. We also have from yesterday All the the most active flows that were happening Uh inside the market, right? So these were the most active calls the most active puts We saw that the most active put contract actually was Quite active. This was the first time in a while. I've seen it be the most active contract at 10 103,000 Versus the most active call at 74,000 so quite a contrast there All right, let's take a look at our more volatile friend the nasdaq Pre-open we do have a little bit of interest building above here Not as much below So, you know, you have some participants looking for a higher price on their offers You see a little bit of that in the s&p as well You see a decent amount of interest above but there is some below here particularly around yesterday's area of options interest in spx Russell's a bit more of a mess here not as much liquidity In this contract overall trading about 5.6 thousand order book depth this morning And we can see it just trading below the point of control and view app here Gold trading at 2045. There is a decent actually a decent amount of liquidity in this contract today got 111 at about Looks like 2043 75 and then 101 at 2048 50. So that's pretty big This is not a very liquid contract. So when you see that amount of interest in gold, I do think it's important And we have crude oil here crude oil trading above its point of control and see how important that is today Wow, look, I mentioned it. It just starts trading right at it and even testing below it But seriously, you can see how important this level has been for the contract as buyers pulled it up It was continually tested and tested and tested So far it's held having mentioned it. Maybe I cursed that we'll see Rates moving a little higher pre market on the twos And the tens ahead of that seven-year auction 30s seeing a somewhat similar look as well And then as we look at the euro here a bit of dollar strength this morning Just over the last 20 minutes or so And a somewhat similar look in the yen suggesting the same So we'll go back to the s&p. We'll zoom in a little bit more here on the microstructure Just a little bit of a bid above vwap and the point of control here into some of this resting liquidity above As we're about one minute away from the opening bell. I'm sorry 10 seconds away from the opening bell And uh, there is that opening bell for you coming in right about Now And as it does you can see liquidity really start to grow Once cash trading takes off It's also important to watch the liquidity. You can see liquidity really starts to thicken up here So you can see that the difference between the pre market and the cash session is the heat map gets a lot more Interesting a lot more participation During the cash session. You can see it in the russell. You can see it in the s&p. You can see it in the nasdaq Right And that's telling you there's more folks that are interested in transacting. There's more activity happening That also means you're more likely to get better fills in this market, you know During regular trading hours than pre market And seeing just a little bit of a pull here As we start off the cash trading session, we do see some interest growing below in s&p plenty above as well though And we see price just getting right back here to the vwap and point of control Right where we saw the second most active put contract yesterday. So we see there's a continue continued amount of interest really at this level and within about 10 minutes or so we'll start getting the updated flows from cboe on the spx options visualizer populating Let's take a look at the nasdaq the nasdaq's looking a bit nastier in the s&p here overall It's not really what you want to see the nasdaq tends to be the momentum leader So when it's not behaving well, it is something to uh to look out for And we see a big pop rate there a lot of volatility so far this morning decent amount of volume on that pop too You can see that by the size of these circles here That's one of the things that's kind of neat about book map as you can see it right on screen That price action demonstrating how much volume is involved with each move Let's take a look at the russell russell reversing russell is kind of doing the inverse of the nasdaq The nasdaq was down the russell was popping the nasdaq's coming up russell's dropping It's interesting to see that it does kind of illustrate that idea that there's that dichotomy And some of that, uh, you know changing and hedging patterns You see a little bit of selling coming back in the nasdaq not as much conviction You can see the smaller bubbles here. We'll zoom in on the microstructure. It's kind of interesting to do this You can zoom in at you know really any time interval Uh and and really to the depth that you want so that if you're a higher frequency scalper You know, you've got that opportunity to really look at just how things are trading at a much shorter shorter You know frequency like right now. We've just got about five minutes of tape on screen Hey, steven. How's it going? I'm gonna go back to s and p here. We see it pulling A bit down here and we do see interest growing in, uh bids below We also see cumulative volume delta falling into the red for the first time this trading session Let's see how much more interest we do see some more interest growing at lower prices as well So I think this is all pretty important to take into consideration Now I like to trade the 20 minute opening range So we still got about 15 minutes left before we see how that forms but initial indications so far Look like we do have some weakness. Maybe some continuation of yesterday's selling in the tape so far today Let's take a look at the nasdaq and we're gonna just, uh Zoom this out just a little bit here And we can see it's getting a pull and there is some more volume building in that pull As the bubble's starting to get a bit bigger. Well, yeah, we'll take a look at this Let's see if there's any interesting options activity that I should be aware of Got some big buys in tesla and coin Tesla got the 207 fifties about 128 000 trading for next friday's expiration Coin we've got the two tens at 150 000 trading for this friday's expiration both on the call side Nothing too unusual on the put side yet And going into this morning. We had about a 270 million imbalance to the buy side See s and p kind of continuing to pull here. We're going to zoom in just a little bit focus on the cash session A little bit of a continuation of that pull new lows being made in the cash session here on the s and p nasdaq not quite as weak yet, but It may follow It is looking pretty volatile. Let's take a look at the rustle rustle is also starting to pull here too So much for doing the opposite of the others Gold continues to just sort of steadily build here Crude coming off its lows now pushing above that point of control level. We were watching earlier And rates just sort of basing here after moving a bit higher looking at the tens Now looking at the 30s now And let's take a look euro building a little bit of strength after falling earlier We watch the euro because about 70 of us dollar index. It's a quite a liquid contract. So it's worth watching closely Let's go back s and p making new lows here getting back down here To that 50 78 50 77 area where there is a large resting bid and we see those resting bids building below us more and more Now we do get a conference board consumer confidence at 10 a.m I don't know that that's going to be a huge market mover, but I think it's at least important to watch We can see a larger resting bid now coming in just below price So again, this tends to act a bit like a magnet when trend is your friend. So this is important This is the market whether it's algos or trading desks giving us a sense as to where they're interested in price And it's at lower levels with these bids And we just saw that resting bid now disappear Was that a bit of a spoof interesting to to look at these when they come and they go We'll see if that one comes back. It seemed to have been triggered when price started to come down to 50 77 50 Take a look at the nasdaq here Now it's actually starting to follow the s and p. So we're going the other way around today nasdaq is being led by the s and p and the nasdaq is now making new post cash session lows We've got spx cash trading at 50 66 nasdaq cash trading at 17 9 29 Both down less than a tenth of a percent so far seeing more interest in those tesla 207 fifties also Pretty decent sweep on smci 7 42 50 puts For next friday the trade value of 615 000 in premium So someone either hedging out their smci or betting on lower prices But that's a pretty big trade for that one. We also got some nvidia puts coming in 200 000 paid for the 750 is expiring this friday s and p continuing to make new lows here this morning nasdaq really pulling harder than the s and p lower now Now this could just be a healthy pullback You know, we've had quite a run and there's no reason that stock shouldn't get a little bit of a consolidation Or maybe a correction in time or price or both We can see that positioning has become really extended We do see some distribution happening from the institutional side and some of the were crowded areas of the market So we'll see whether this leads to a rotation consolidation or some kind of correction Let's take a look at the spools here or the s and p 500 e-mini futures. We can see vwap getting drug down just a little bit here And we're just waiting for that options data to populate So we can see where some of those initial flows are today I'll keep this a little wider as we wait for that to populate. We can also see a large resting bid at es 50 50 46 contracts on the bid interest rate and price just above that Gamma flip level that our naive model has calculated some more tesla calls coming through 205s for two weeks from this friday 156,000 and premium paid that tesla 210 level overall also has a lot more interest growing Based on our gamma profiling tool that we have on our trader aid discord that I created that scrapes all the options on the chain You can see sellers pulling down the point of control here now to about 57 50 77 We'll zoom out just a little bit more. Yeah, it's mostly that 50 50 of order. That's really the biggest one on the book right now that i'm watching Let's go over to the nasdaq nasdaq continues to also plunge new lows here Let's see if we see any interesting levels of resting liquidity below. They're of similar size nothing like the s and p here He's not yet. Yeah, there's there's 17,800. That's going to be the largest That you see and that's about 1% lower than where we are now. So I guess it's somewhat similar to s and p. I'll be at lower Russell's pinging around the point of control that's been pushed lower by sellers here now Looking like it wants to push below it potentially making a new low There it goes Let's take a look at crude here crude is building Often is the case when crude runs higher We see interest rates run higher too not so much yet. So we'll be watching that one I like to watch the tens with crude they Rates on the tenure and and crude oil tend to have a strong positive correlation So that's one of those intermarket dynamics. You can watch pretty closely And then that tends to have an impact on the dollar as well We do see the dollar coming in, you know making a move higher It's the inverse of what we're seeing on screen with the euro, right? So the euro is going down that means 70% of the u.s. Dollar index is going down Which suggests that in that same time period the u.s. Dollar was moving higher and we see somewhat similar with the yen albeit not as extended someone selling Nvidia 790 calls 123,000 in premium sold that's for this friday and some more tesla call buying 205 strike 131,000 a premium paid for this friday Lot of interest in tesla calls this morning That's pretty much the the majority of the unusual flow. I'm seeing on the call side And I will be building an options visualizer for single stocks. I'm going to start off with spy But then, you know qqq and then I'll look at tesla and vidya and all the other single stocks that Folks like trading as well. And we do see tesla shares bit up 2.75 20488 today. So certainly that call buying is helping to drive prices a bit higher And getting a little bit of a bit over the last two minutes here But nothing to write home about just more stabilization. I would say than anything else similar look in the russell now trying to challenge the Point of control from below here And now we have these initial options levels populating from my spx options visualizer You can see that the most active put strike is actually above price right now And then the second most active put strike is just above that really large level of resting liquidity Now these order flows will develop over the first hour or so will get a better sense as to where there's a lot of interest But these are at least the initial areas of interest that we're seeing so we're going to zoom out a little bit more We also see the midpoint coming on screen the midpoint often aligns pretty closely with the point of control and view app and the midpoint appears when there is a relative balance between The amount of interest in the top two puts and the top two calls And now we see that most active put level lining up with the midpoint as well So we'll just zoom in a little bit more. We do see interest in these higher prices And we also see interest growing just below the point of control 313 at 50 76 And then you've got a stack double stack here at 50 73 probably up to 50 73 75 Earlier today we learned the us house price index for december was up 6.6 percent year over year versus 6.7 prior So home prices are still on the rise another reason that I don't think the fed needs to look at cutting Any time too soon in fact pal was the first fed chair ever to identify housing as being in a bubble And saying that we should expect a reset now whether or not that's still the case is a whole other story altogether But it's at least something that's in the fed's Per view and we haven't seen that You know prices have come down rates remain very high It's keeping a lot of the existing supply locked up Which is ironically keeping prices high right if there's not supply And there's still demand your prices are staying elevated and that's because you know If you got into a mortgage at two and a half three three and a half percent Why would you want to get into your next one at six and a half percent? So we've got consumer confidence and richman fed coming up At 10, uh, this is going to be interesting. We have the 20 minute opening range here having formed Let's call the top of the range 50 87 The bottom of the range 50 74 Now we're trying to get a sense as to if we're going to pierce either side of that range and potentially get some kind of Trend day here not a very big opening range Right, but still enough to be worth watching And also we have the government shutdown deadline coming up this friday for what that's worth I don't think it's going to be a big deal. I don't think this government Is going to shut down, but I think if it does it would be minimally disruptive I think a lot of the time what a government shutdown actually is Versus what people talk about are two totally different things right what it actually is Is uh, you know a part of the government that's deemed non-essential shuts down Temporarily, but what it's advertised as is like some kind of end of the world thing where you know It's going to have all these bad consequences on the economy in the markets often as a case It doesn't have a major consequence, you know, it's it's it's maybe a little bit of volatility a little bit of stress But um, you know the the pentagon's funded all the essential agencies are funded It's it's just like a temporary pause on on spending in certain operations And basically people don't get paid for a little bit increases their financial stress Particularly in areas where there's a lot of federal government employees and contractors But uh, ultimately you see creditors and landlords and others work with these same folks knowing they'll eventually be paid So it's usually not a big issue. So I wouldn't make a lot of it. We'll see what happens by the end of this week They'll probably get another continuing resolution But we haven't had a 2024 budget for this government I mean the 2024 fiscal year started in october 1st. It's it's almost march 1st So it's been five months almost with no budget in fiscal year 2024. So great job So let's zoom out a little bit. Let's see where some of these areas of interest are we can see now Things are shifting around a little bit and look at that. This is very interesting the most Interest inputs Is around the same level where there is the most interest in this 647 contract bid at 5050 There are no coincidences These are very much related and you often see this which is one of the reasons I built this tool for book map because It's really neat to be able to see the heat map Where people are interested where they've already transacted on various time frames intraday, but also, you know Full year volume profile is a good thing to zoom out and look at But then also where there's interest in transacting options and where there's already positioning So we can see today and now this is the second most active put. There's a lot of interest around es 50 50 which is going to be spx around 50 40 50 And right now because there's a relative balance between the most active Puts and calls you can see they're pretty much all 3000 volume right now We have that midpoint on screen and that is converging closer with the the VWAP level kind of getting pulled into midpoint here This midpoint is basically a magnet when the options flows are kind of balanced And so I like to look at it as You know, if we see the market get extended above the midpoint There's real buying happening outside of the options There's share accumulation and futures accumulation and on the other side if we get well below the midpoint You know, we're seeing the opposite We're seeing a real distribution outside of what's implied by options So it kind of gives you a sense as to where the drivers are And if we get kind of pinned at midpoint and you know in auction theory It's telling you there's a relative balance between supply and demand In the external factors and shares and futures not just options, right Let's take a look at the nasdaq Nasdaq making a bit of a push here on some decent volume But still below VWAP here we can see on the white land line and still below the point of control We'll zoom this out just a little bit more So we can see that 20 minute opening range, which we're also, you know We're really nowhere near a piercing either side of it So we're just going to keep that on screen with both of these Keep that last, you know, 20 minutes or really from the open on Till 950 see if we move either way That would be my key Trend indicator intraday for today Let's take a look at the Russell here Russell's just pinging the point of control from below just below VWAP as well It's been a bit of a choppy trade today Initially it was trading to the inverse of the nasdaq But now it seems to be becoming a little bit more like it overall Move on to gold Gold is just chopping sideways here. Not a lot to see We do have some of these larger areas of interest above and below though 2048 50 and 2040 50. I think these levels could be somewhat important. This is a thin contract So it doesn't tend to get a lot of large resting bids and offers. These are large enough to get my attention Now we've got crude and look at that big resting offering crude up here at 78 50 So with price moving in that direction, it does become more likely that that offer gets filled. We'll take a look at that later Rates just kind of chopping sideways here overall After an initial move higher getting a little relief in the tens ahead of that auction at 1 p.m similar with the 30s And euro coming down and basing so implying the dollar moved a little bit higher over the last 20 minutes or so And the yen a similar look there. So we'll go back to the s and p futures Right back at midpoint here view app getting pulled closer and closer to midpoint and really not a lot of activity You can see it on screen. The bubbles are getting pretty small. It's telling you there's really not a lot of Transacting you can also see that in the volume below if you prefer looking at volume bars But they're both telling you the same thing just not a lot of conviction in one way or the other right now This is sort of a market in balance You got some chinese equities having some interest in call flow baba 80s for next friday 125 000 premium paid for the calls on those buy you 120s for two weeks from now 132 000 premium there And sound hound stock bit up 30 percent today with their partnership with nvidia driving some interest in this Company those 7.5 calls got a lot of attention earlier today 62 000 in premium paid for them Just after the open Still have that large resting bid below us here in the s and p which is now just by the gamma flip level We actually have the put interest growing at even lower prices. Look at that Lot of put interest at what would be I believe spx 5000 So we'll keep an eye on that but we're going to zoom back in for now And I've got just about two minutes left on the stream for book map. I hope everyone has enjoyed it Of course, you can follow me on twitter and youtube at mayhem four markets Check out trader aid where we help you sharpen your trading edge For a limited time you get 20 off using the code mayhem 20 at checkout If you'd like to get up to 40 off of book map you can do so by visiting trader aid dot com Slash book map And scroll down to the specials and if you're interested in the spx options visualizer check out trader aid dot com slash spx It now works for rhythmic and dx feed Got 10 seconds till we get consumer confidence from the conference board. So I'll hang out to cover that We've got 106.7 lower than forecast markets catching a bit of a bit on this reading Forecast was for 115 S&P getting some decent excitement on that weaker than expected number And one of the things you can see here by the way in s&p.  There's no liquidity here You see how like before the event and as the event's playing out There's almost none and then as we go kind of pass that event volatility catalyst It'll start to come back. You can see it coming back now. This is why it's important to be careful trading events Because liquidity thins out and you may not get the kind of fills or price action you expect So that initial pop kind of being worked off here that initial pop not really happening on much volume either We're still within that initial 20 minute opening range as well. We really haven't pierced either side So we're going to be just watching How this thing trades for now. I'm not necessarily going to be um You know taking any intraday positions because we haven't pierced the opening range the upside or the downside And this event volatility catalyst cb consumer confidence really hasn't provided the impetus at least yet We will see we do have some resting liquidity above us if we're able to get to that You know that will show us there's an opening range appears higher just like we have some below us So there is interest in either side of the opening range that could give us a better idea as to what Kind of trend day today is going to take shape into as we wrap up the book map stream here We can also see there's call interest just about um at 51 10. That's the spx most Aggressively bid call and then the hot put is moved up here. This would be 50 60 on ea So about 50 50 on spx So we'll be paying attention to all these levels today. We'll see how The market trades but so far no real compelling interesting intraday trades based on what we're seeing So I hope this has been useful to everyone Really appreciate you all tuning in And we will catch up soon


Okay, so we understand the Langmuir isotherm and this form in which we've made the Langmuir isotherm linear, inverse surface coverage linearly depending on inverse pressure. But the surface coverage is not the most convenient property to measure experimentally. If you imagine how you'd go about measuring surface coverage experimentally, you need to somehow look at the surface and determine what fraction of it is covered by molecules. That's not an impossible thing to do. You can do imaging studies, scanning electron microscope images, TEM studies, for example, or SEM, and somehow after you've adsorbed the molecules onto the surface, if you're careful not to let any of them desorb, if you quench or bind those molecules to the surface, take it into your SEM or TEM and image the surface, you can count what fraction of the surface is occupied by molecule. That would be one way of measuring surface coverage, but it's a fairly elaborate, maybe a difficult procedure, more difficult than it needs to be. A simpler procedure, so remember what we're doing when we adsorb molecules onto the surface, we have a surface, we introduce molecules above the surface at some particular pressure and then they'll bind to the surface until we have an equilibrium between bound adsorbed species and gas-based species. So imagine we've got a tank of gas, so in this container we introduce from this large tank of gas, so here I'll just draw a reservoir with lots of gas-phase species, doesn't matter what pressure this gas is at. I've got a reservoir of gas, introduce a certain volume of gas into this system at whatever pressure we're interested in, let it reach equilibrium with the surface, I've got a certain amount of surface coverage. Now imagine that I take this surface out of the system, I remove the surface from the container leaving the gas in here, so now I've removed some of the gas, the original gas-phase molecules that are now adsorbed with the surface and then when I take this gas and I bring it back out of the system the total volume of gas that I removed from the system is smaller than the total volume of gas that I've introduced into the system even if I bring it back to the original pressure because I've lost some of the molecules that adsorbed to the species. So that difference in the volume, if I say what the volume be, the difference between the volume of gas I put in and the volume of gas I took out, that's the quantity we can call adsorbed volume, that's the volume of gas that adsorbed onto the surface. So adsorbed volume sounds a little bit strange, once the molecules are adsorbed we don't think of them as occupying volume, they might have a surface area, they might be a number of molecules or a number of moles attached to the surface, so when we say adsorbed volume what we really mean is the volume of gas that is equivalent to the number of adsorbed species attached to the surface, so that's the adsorbed volume. If we imagine doing that experiment that I just described, I'm going to now measure the adsorbed volume as a function of the pressure of the gas above the surface. So at a low pressure I might adsorb a relatively small number of molecules on the surface which I measure not as a surface coverage but as an adsorbed volume at a higher pressure, I might get more molecules on the surface and at a higher pressure more still, very high pressures that curve begins to plateau. This is a graph of the Langmuir isotherm, I'm just plotting volume as a function of pressure rather than surface coverage. So asymptotically it no longer approaches one as the surface coverage does. If I were plotting surface coverage versus pressure it absolutely would approach one as I get a full monolayer coverage on the surface, but since I'm measuring volume rather than surface coverage it's going to approach some volume that we'll call V sub m. You can think of it as Vm for max, it's the maximum amount of volume that will adsorb onto the surface or m for monolayer, it's the volume of gas that's equivalent to a full monolayer if all the surface sites were adsorbed occupied by adsorbed molecules. So by doing this experiment at a number of different pressures we can obtain the value of V sub m. If we want to connect these adsorbed volume measurements to surface coverage, what we know is that the surface coverage is one only when I've filled the whole monolayer, when I've put a molecule at every possible surface site. So when V is equal to Vm then we've got full coverage. In fact the surface coverage is the total volume relative to that maximum volume that we can get. So now once we've measured V sub m we can use the measurements of volume to determine the surface coverage. So we don't measure surface coverage directly we get it indirectly by measuring adsorbed volume at several different conditions. If we ask ourselves what does that say about this equation, if I go back to this equation and rewrite my linear form of the Langmuir isotherm equation, instead of writing 1 over theta I'll write 1 over this quantity, 1 over V over Vm is the upside down of that Vm over V. So that's the left side. On the right side I've still got 1 over k, 1 over p plus 1. If, let's see, if I take the V sub m from the left side over to the right side, so all I've left, all I've got left on the left is 1 over V. I'm dividing by Vm on both sides so I'll write 1 over k times Vm, 1 over p and then the 1 becomes a 1 over Vm. So that's also a linear equation in the form y is equal to m times x plus b. The m term with k's and Vm's, Vm is just a constant whether we've measured it yet or not it's just some particular number for a given system. Those k's and Vm's are constant, pressure is the independent variable that we vary. So if we want to make a graph that corresponds to the things we're actually measuring, again instead of plotting V versus p and getting this nonlinear curve, what's more convenient is to plot, as suggested by this equation, 1 over V as a function of 1 over p and again I'll get a straight line. My data will be on or close to that straight line. And now notice that we have a slope and we have an intercept. The slope of this curve is 1 over k times the monolayer volume or the maximum volume. The intercept now tells us something. The intercept is 1 over Vm. So rather than having to do the extrapolation I described here and go to very high pressures in order to measure the asymptotic limit of this behavior, we measure these values at whatever pressure we want including very low pressures if we're interested. And then fit the data with the straight line, the intercept of that curve gives us 1 over the maximum volume. So we don't have to saturate the surface covered all if we don't want to. The intercept of the curve tells us 1 over Vm so we can solve for the value of Vm from the intercept. Once we know the value of Vm, the slope tells us 1 over k Vm so we can obtain the value of k from the slope. So in this form of the linear equation we're learning something both from the intercept and from the slope. I should point out also that this equation where instead of just saying the monolayer volume, let's say the monolayer volume, the volume of gas that's required to completely saturate one monolayer, one single layer on the surface of this substrate is let's say 0.4 liters or something like that. That number of molecules will occupy all the surface sites. So in addition to just telling us the monolayer volume reaches a surface coverage of 1, the monolayer volume also tells us something about the number of surface sites, the variable that previously we called and the total number of surface sites. So if we can use the ideal gas lot to obtain how many molecules are in this monolayer volume then we know that that many molecules can bind to the surface when it's fully saturated. So knowing how many surface sites there are can in turn tell us something perhaps about the surface area or the size of each little lattice site occupied by individual molecule. So knowing this monolayer volume actually tells us quite a bit about the surface that we're binding to. Alright so we're done manipulating the Langmuir isotherm equation at this point. We've seen it in lots of different forms at this point. It's now time to confess that actually when you go into the lab and you do this sort of experiment unfortunately the data don't always fall along a straight line. Sometimes you measure the data and they don't plot them in this way and they don't fall in a straight line. So the next question will be why would that happen and what is it we would do if the data don't obey the Langmuir isotherm. That's coming up next.


So, very good afternoon everybody. Hello and welcome to the exchange for media, EconClave 2020. E4M EconClave aims to bring the most enthusiastic minds together from different segments of the industry. Once again, a very warm welcome to all of you. My name is Khyati Kawa and I'm going to be your e-host for this E4M EconClave. Today, when COVID-19 has taken over most of our decision-making power, but still, practitioners don't stop to evolve or innovate. During these sessions, experts won't only share how they are managing their operations, but also share their thoughts on the revival and how they have streamlined the functionalities in the past one month. Also, we are available and live on E4M Portal, Facebook, Twitter, at E4M Tweets, Instagram and YouTube along with Zoom. Our official hashtag for this EconClave is the E4M webinar. Hashtag e-numerical 4M webinar. So, please do follow us and stay connected for our latest updates. Now, quickly moving on to our very first session for the EconClave. The pandemic has created uncertainty amongst all of us, whether individuals, organizations or brands. So, our first session is going to talk about, or rather try to answer, has this pandemic made brands more agile and created a new playbook for marketeers. And in conversation, we have with us Mr. Rahul Agarwal, managing director and chief executive officer of Lenovo, India. Rahul has over 24 years of professional experience and has held multiple leadership positions across Lenovo and IBM. Prior to his current role, he headed the commercial segment for Lenovo, India, the largest business for Lenovo, India. Before that, he headed marketing communications for Lenovo globally and is credited with setting up Lenovo Worldwide Marketing Hub in Bangalore, supporting 60 plus countries. Rahul will be in conversation with Dr. Anurag Batra, chairman and editor-in-chief VW Business World and Exchange for Media Group, who is an enthusiastic entrepreneur and an industry expert. Over to you, Dr. Batra. Thank you, Chathi, for that kind introduction. Welcome Mr. Rahul Agarwal to this Exchange for Media webinar, Exchange for Media conclave in a virtual format. As we discussed just before the webinar, we all are doing the best we can in the current circumstances. So how are you doing, Mr. Rahul Agarwal? Rahul, how are you dealing with this unprecedented pandemic, both on a personal level and a professional level? I think we are all dealing with it every day as it comes. But a few things that I've been telling people around me and my office colleagues, number one is to keep your mind calm. Because this is a time when a lot of uncertain information is being floated, which tends to stir the mind in the wrong way. So I'm telling people and myself to stay away from a lot of these unconfirmed information. Number two is not to over-analyze the impact of what this might have in the future. Logically speaking, when you don't know what this is really all about, what is the intensity, what is the longevity, what is the reason, what is the cure, then I think it's a little too premature to say that the world will change in a way that we won't be able to identify. And a lot of people are kind of panicking, imagining things. And I tell people that human beings have this amazing tendency to come back to their routine once things tend to roll back to normalcy. So in a few ways things will change, like work from home, less travel, more of these meetings. People here who travel a lot know how painful it is. If I have to come to Mumbai, it's a six hour painful process from my house to the door that I want to reach. But in many ways I think things may not change. The other internally what we're doing is a lot of communication. Every day I'm doing at least one meeting with the external stakeholder and at least one round table with my employees and almost a daily meeting with leadership team. A lot of employee engagement is happening today. And of course as any business would do in Iraq, we're doing a lot of plan A, plan B, plan C and cutting down expenses. So it's a lot of future planning. So fundamentally it's the way I'm spending my time that has changed a lot. It's not to review the current business, but to review our preparedness for different outcomes of the future. Thank you Rahul for laying out how you're dealing with so beautifully in a very authentic way, real way. Now I was in a conversation like this of business world with Debati Singh. She is now the senior VP at 3M in the headquarters at Minnesota and she was earlier in India.  And someone in the audience asked her a question and I want to give you the question. Everybody is referring to this pandemic as a black swan event. And he said it's a grey rhino event. So grey rhinos appear from time to time. They appear more often than a black swan. So if this is a grey rhino event and some experts believe that corona may resurface in the winter and it may be there for the next 18-20 months in some form till the vaccine is discovered at the fear of corona can go away. So tell us your ABC plan. I'm not asking for very specific, but if this is true and you yourself said ABC, tell us some scenarios. So I don't want to talk about the disease because the world has a lot of experts. There are 1500 medical papers which are coming out every week by the experts. 1500 every week and that's going up. And every organization, whether it's McKinsey, BCG, Deloitte, E&Y, they are rolling out their analysis of what's going to happen. So I think in that context, my view is quite unimportant. And I would not take my own view seriously. So I'm trying to take one step at a time. Don't analyze too much. Keep your mind calm. Do the right things. By doing the right things, I mean cut the expense, control the expense and be nice to human beings. So for example, we're going out of our way to make sure that we don't have to let people go out of our way. I'm saying cut everything else, but let's not touch, let's not go there. Three, we are trying to do things from a CSR point of view. Donations, we are helping some hospitals, procure equipment and so on and so forth, which I think a lot of good companies are doing. But in my role, my professional role, I think all that I need to do is look at the category that we deal in. It has three scenarios because computer is a very interesting category. Many people think that it will grow. I'm not sure. In the short term, I'm not sure. So the thing that we're dealing with is if the market goes down by 20% is scenario. So A is market remains flat. That's scenario A. B is if the market goes down by 20%. C is if we are pleasantly surprising the market goes up by 5% or 10%, which is less likely. Then how do we run our P&L? How do we run our entire business processes? How do we manage our people? What expenses to cut? What to do about marketing? What messages to give to our customers? What messages to give to our employees, to our stakeholders? So I think it's a lot of that, which every week things change because people's opinion about the future changes very fast because there is nobody who can prove you wrong today about what you were saying about tomorrow.  While we talk of business, we will talk to you a little bit about marketing. Now you're in a leadership, you know, general management, MD, CEO role but you're also the brand owner in some way, right? Being a global CMO, setting up the app. Tell us, as a brand owner, what are the brand activities you continue to do and what are the brand activities you put a stop to? So, see, a lot of people ask me, hey, how is the brand changing? And I tell them a very simple answer that brand cannot change because my definition of a brand is it has to have a character and character means that it has to have some values and the test of values is that when times are tough, they're still vouched by the same values. So as far as I'm concerned, I think the value of the new brand is not changing and what we are saying, however, to people might undergo a little bit of evolution. So for example, I know very well that a lot of parents are keen to get the second PC at home now. They have two children, e-education, they want to make sure that they have two PCs. Many people who did not have PCs earlier, they're saying, okay, at least let me have one. I can't just depend on my office laptop for the weekend. So our messaging that is going to go out is, hey, how can we give you a full bundle? Which PC is the best for your family and what are the accessories that you need? Number two, in India, there's always an affordability issue. So the affordability issue is that, hey, I don't have the money up front, especially now when salaries are getting cut, people are losing jobs. But in India, education gets top priority. So we are coming out with two-year EMI. I think that people can pay, which is a big deal. So what I'm saying, you're observing the changing consumer behavior and you're responding to it, not only in terms of the product offering, but in terms of pricing, in terms of financing, in terms of making sure that you really become a true partner in the consumer's journey. True. So we also, for example, in Raj, we did something very novel. We said till the time this goes on, our service centers, which are fully operational, unlike many other companies, my AC has a problem, but my AC manufacturer for two months is off. But we are on. We think that we will support any brand, free of cost. Fantastic. That is the kind of thing they're doing. We've also launched a campaign called SmarterEd, which is a portal we've made, where in teachers, people who want to teach can register. Students who want to learn can register. SmarterEd. SmarterEd, so you can just do a Google maybe. SmarterEd. SmarterEd. So it's a platform we've created. We've just launched it last week. With thousands of people like you and me have registered, think that now I have some time and I want to teach something. Students all over the country are registering. They're saying that I may have teachers, but the teachers are not really good, which is a big problem. There's a one million shortage of teachers. So we are doing these kind of things, which I would say that was always in our agenda. And therefore I would say it's not new to the brand. But I think the situation demands that that part comes out a little more than the commercial part. Fantastic. I think that's where innovation comes in. That's where a larger purpose comes in. We support any brand, any big. And going back to your purpose of enabling people to do what they want to do using a technology brand. So after the webinar, I'll chat SmarterEd.com and if we are somewhere towards the end to show the homepage, we must now let me ask you a direct question because we're talking to a group of CMOs who are logged in or brand managers or marketing professional, advertising professionals, media professionals. Will the marketing budgets come down in the immediate near term? Tell us what will happen to marketing budgets in the short term. We did term long term. But for the most category, they will unfortunately. And by what percentage? I think that will vary. So FNCG, I'm told, you know, I have a lot of friends who are in that part of the FNCG which is selling sanitizers. One organization which sells sanitizers. You know what is the explosion in the sanitizer business? 500 X of the normal. FNCG actually may go up because people are going to be more cooking at home and spending more time at home. But most categories, I think the drop could be anywhere from 10% to 50%. Thank you Rahul for being so specific. So Rahul, if the drop is 50%, let's say, let's take the worst case scenario and 50% is left, how will your marketing mix change? How will your media mix change? What are the thoughts in your head that you can share that can help the professionals who are watching you? So I think some of the headlights are quite leading. It will definitely be a move to more digital, more performance based marketing. Also I would say more marketing which is not related to immediate business. So I think there is a bit of a dichotomy here and I am seeing it in Lenovo. For example, we are cutting down on normal TV and print. We are doing a lot more digital, just starting to do digital. More performance based, measurable marketing. On the other hand, we are also open to spending more money on giving the larger message because brands don't mean much to an average consumer. Brands mean a lot to the brand managers. Unless you are talking about iconic brands which have been there for decades and maybe centuries. Otherwise, if you go to a survey, brands' perception will never match with what the brand manager or the CEO thinks. So this is also an opportunity to come up with what we truly believe in. Like smarter at spending money. So I think there are two kinds of pathways that I see flowing at least for Lenovo. But the traditional marketing budget will definitely go down. Digital will go down. TV and print definitely I think should be very worried. I am sorry because right now people are not even getting the newspaper. No we are. I get it too.  But I think human behaviour is very panic kind of pro. Rahul, what I love about the conversation is you are very real. You are being very specific. You are not giving cliched answers. You are telling us as it is and I think that is the mouth of a great leader. Yes, you have to stay human centric, you have to be compassionate. But you also have to say what you have to say and do what you have to do. So I see that. I must compliment you because sometimes conversations are very goody-goody and they are not real. So I must compliment you on for being so specific and giving specific inputs. Now let me make it a little philosophical and I sent you those questions of leadership. When the lockdown started in the last week of March, I was confused. I was lost. I had feelings of guilt, wish I had much more money. So that I could take care of my employees. I was worried about the future. But I gathered myself in the first one week and I can say in the last 40 days, I have given it my best. I have worked longer, harder. I have clarity on the future. Tell us what went through Raul's mind. You lead a very large organization, a very big brand. So as a leader, as an individual, how did you prepare yourself to be able to lead in this hookah world? So I think a lot is to do with the tenure. You know, I am almost finishing 5 years in this role. I think if I were in my first or second year, I would have panicked a lot. But what I experienced was that, I think there was, I just told myself that I got to accept this. Because there is nothing that I can do. Number two is, I realized everyone in the company is looking at me, my tone, my body language, what I say about the situation. And you know, I mean, I don't believe in being artificial. I like to call a spade a spade. But I still felt positive that people might overplay the impact. And therefore I started communicating a lot. I started talking a lot and I told people that, you know, possibility is endless. But you got to look at the probability. And therefore keep looking at the facts, keep looking at what is within your fear of control. And really not too much. As I said, I didn't overanalyze. We just did the right things. We didn't get into a panic mode of cutting things. But we said sensible, cutting down expenses, great scenarios, great situation. Because the human mind sees the worst of it when it goes through uncertainty. Now when you make, if you can make your business heads, look at scenario C, which is the worst, I think it calms you down subliminally. Because then you know that, okay, things can't go worse than this. And you know, I'm prepared to an extent that I can be. So there's no playbook. I don't think I have done it very handsomely. I'm listening a lot to people. We have created more than 100 ideas in an over. 100 ideas that I'm tracking personally. I think that is new. People are feeling very energized by ability to contribute to ideas and we are implementing some of them. I think these are some of the things that you do between employee activities. And then I tell everyone, guys if you're working in a company like Lenovo, firstly, you are privileged. Number two, you're not kids. Therefore, you've got to find your own way to motivate yourself. Good. So you know, we're getting very interesting questions. And I'll start with the question. You know, the whole idea there is Shalini Shankar asking in the current scenario of reduced demand and customer being selected in the purchase. They should branch off for reaching consumers through campaigns and be on top of their mind or should brands look at pricing and become more attractive. So is pricing going to play a bigger role? That's one question from Shalini Shankar. And the other question is from Amit Setia. I would like to hear your thoughts on future proofing for the brand. Future proofing of the business from supply chain and consumption perspectives. You also had an add on question in what all aspects the brand will go for normalization, both in the short term and long term. Yeah, not there. Firstly, I don't think I'll have answers for everything. On the first one, I stayed forward. We are reaching out to, for example, the student community through schools now, which we never did earlier. We're going to be doing specific campaigns to reach out to students and give them messages as to what is the right thing to buy for them to have continuity in education. Pricing, I don't see pricing as a big lever in the current situation. And I think a brand which has a character and values will not try to take advantage of the situation if there's an opportunity. And we've seen good brands actually make statements on that. But if the demand goes down, will there be pressure on pricing? I think you have to study your industry and see what is the price elasticity. I don't think on computers, if I reduce the price by 5% people, more people are going to buy. But if we can give them financing offers that many people may come provided they have the need. Second one was about the future proofing. I don't really am a big fan of future proofing. You can't do future proofing. And Amit is the CM of a brand. I always talk about the price of perfection. The price of perfection is too high. And if you want to be prepared for a black phone even like this, the amount of investment you'll have to make may be too high. It may not be worth it. So I think if it's a regular event and people think that it can happen again, then yes you should be prepared. And I think every business will have its own playbook on what to do. One thing is just to be sensible. A lot of messages for startups who had unlimited money coming in. And I'm one of the few people who are vocal about it that every business in the medium term needs to be sensible. So I think it's a good reminder that your business model needs to be sustainable. You can't just keep sustaining on infinite money being infused because it's a game of investors trying to outdo each other. Which is what happens. So part of it is hygiene and the other part I think every organization will have to find its own answers. I can't generalize. I can just give some general principles which I think for this esteemed group may not be of any value. I want to ask you, will brands collaborate more? So for example, you talk to an educational segment and hence I'm asking this question. You could take it for other segments. Will say let's say partner with an EduTech brand. Will it partner with an education website? So will brands collaborate more than they ever did? So very good question. I would say brands should collaborate. Whether they will or not is to be seen. It's very difficult to collaborate. I've tried this personally. Brands have egos and you know, processes and companies. So two large brands, very difficult to collaborate. One large brand and one small brand easier to partner. Very easy to partner with startups because the founders can take decisions like this. There's a beauty about the way the start of this. But absolutely, I think this is a time for a lot of brand partnerships to happen. Thank you Rao. There are more questions coming. I'll take them. Say somebody called Swamiji Bhosh as an outdoor media agency employee. I'm really tensed about the future prospects of out of home. If big brands are cutting down marketing budgets, how will out of media home media survive? There is Ravi Kumar with increase in online education. What is the plan for urban and rural markets both in branding and pricing? Out of home, I mean, I don't have an answer. But I think as I said, my feeling is that people will start coming out. Bangalore by the way are not set out because I'm usually in calls. Many of my friends are going out. They think it's normal other than the IT corridor. Everyone is out. So I feel that human beings will end up being human beings. And they will do what they've been doing for centuries. They will not suddenly hold up in their houses. So OOH and my opinion will come back. Now every organization including marketing media will have to brace for a tough next six months without a doubt. And I think the test of an organization is can you survive the six months? And if you can't, I think there was an inherent problem in your business model. What is the second question? Can you tell me again? In terms of urban markets pricing. As I said, pricing, I don't think we are looking at pricing at all. Anyway, we are on a tight ship on margins. So I don't think we can reduce the prices and we definitely will not increase the prices. So I think it's more about messaging and reaching out to customers in an effective and endearing way. If you appear opportunistic, then I think you will do long term damage to your brand. So it's a very careful job for marketers right now. For companies like Lenovo because there is an opportunity for us for sure. We don't know how big but we have to come across as people who are generally trying to help. So Rohail Amin who is a senior editorial colleague. What is your advice to brand managers and brands in these times? Specific advice, one or two. I'm a little very, to be honest, I'm a little very about giving general advice. I think it's not just to brand managers but to everyone as I said that I think this whole situation has given us a lot more thinking time. Therefore, first you should calm your mind down and this is a great time to do two things. First is really push yourself to come up with some ideas and implement them. And second is to think long term. And for brand managers I would say that you watch your companies. You will know whether your brand has a character or not. Everyone will want to claim but the way you are reacting, organizations as well as the brand, it will come out whether the value system is authentic or not. And it's a good test. Write down what is my value, what is the behavior my brand should be demonstrating and then honestly ask yourself, am I demonstrating that behavior? Will e-commerce become preferred mode of sales for most brands? With physical retail become lesser and lesser important and will e-retailing become bigger and bigger? No, I would not take it to that extent. But today for example if I look at a consumer laptop market, one out of three laptops are sold online by either Flipkart or Amazon. So that 33% may go up to 40. I don't think it's going to change in the next two months. I think it may be even more 50% but as I keep saying everyone people will want to come back to their whole habit of wanting to see a laptop, compare five laptops and six hours doing comparisons. So I think the balance right now will take.  Another question from Ravi Kumar. Going forward how do you see brand approach impact properties like sports or KBCs or movies? I think the person is from television. See as I said I think you have to break every all these questions into two parts. How is it going to impact in the next six months? And then how is it going to impact long term? And there could be W's. We could have more lockdowns and because nobody knows the trajectory that this disease will take. In the short term I think everything will get affected. And personally sometimes I feel that once a brand is established you don't need to spend money on just flashing the logo. So Lenovo was the first company by the way to sponsor KBC when I was handling marketing 15 years ago and we spent a lot of money because Lenovo was unknown. Today we will never do it. So I think it's all about your context. If you're a new brand you will continue to do that. If you are an established brand I think some of those film placements may actually get deep prioritized because people will say I want to spend money on what will give me immediate measurable business. Fantastic. Thank you for being so real and you know in terms of being just the content and being real it's one of the best conversations I've had. So thank you Raul and you know because sometimes as I said it's a little shy to say. I wouldn't say that to be dishonest but they just want to keep the optimistic message going and you know. So I like to ask last two questions and then maybe bring one or two audience questions. One is what is Raul Agrawal's personal leadership mantra? A personal leadership? Mantra. You know what is your leadership style? So I keep three pillars for me. One is strategic pillar, second is execution pillar, third is people pillar. And I think a good leader is somebody who has to keep an eye on all three. A leader who's excellent in all three is maybe one in a billion million. But as a leader if you can be strong on two then you are a good leader. But if you're weak on equal one pillar then you will not survive. You will not survive.  So first is I think this tripod balance is very important. I think second is leaders and I have learned it over the years on ROG that the tendency to add value is too much. So the lesser you speak the more value you add actually. It has been a very tough learning for me. Beautiful. The lesser you speak the more value you add. So you let basically Rahul is saying if I give you delegate more you let people take chances, make mistakes, learn, become leaders themselves. Give them an opportunity to fail and learn and hopefully become better leaders. That's right. And the third thing that I have learned lately I'm still doing it is that I think ideas will not drop like an apple. You have to push your system and your processes to come up with new ideas and allow people to actually take the risk and fail. I think that only a leader can do.  So I can go on and on but these are some of the things that I maybe subconsciously or consciously try to do. Rahul, is there a book you want to recommend to people or a blog or a movie that could help them get through these times? Yeah. I think couple of books are The Art of Thinking Clearly is a good book. By Mr. Dabeli. Yeah. And he's also written a book of The Art of Living Happy or something like that. So that I think maybe is more important in these times. And Rahul, if you have to say make one prediction for the future, what would that be? Future means 6 to 12 months. I'm not thinking beyond that. You're putting in an uncomfortable zone because it is so easy to predict the future and yet so dangerous. So my feeling is that 90% of the world will come back to normalcy in the next 6 to 12 months. That's a very optimistic note and looking at your answers which are very real. I hope and pray what you say is real and I'll take the last audience question Will brands look for innovative localized media given these difficult circumstances? Rajesh Radhakrishnan from Ritthi Media. Localized innovative media. Do you mean the content or what? I mean he has not specified but I think that's a fair point to assume. I think that debate is always open, global content or local content and MNC always deals with it. So I'm a fan of a good hybrid model. I think your global brand ethos need to be preserved but you will connect more to the audience if you have a local message which is rooted in a local insight. That is always desirable COVID or no COVID. What are the positives for you as an individual of this COVID? You know, every cloud is a silver lining. For example, positive for me is that I've lost 2 kg weight. I'm not travelling, I'm eating at home, I'm mostly sleeping well. So I've done no socializing, so no drinking. So my health has improved, my focus has improved. What are your personal gains? Firstly, I thought all the MBTI tests have always told me in Iraq that I'm an extreme extoward. It almost suggested that I will go mad if I have to sit alone. I usually sit alone for most of the day, I've been absolutely fine. It's a self-discovery that I'm actually happier, calmer when I'm alone. Number 2, I realized I'm speaking 30% less. Everyone is happy about it. My team is happy, I'm doing less calls, so I think there is no end to you being more efficient. I'm sleeping more, I'm sleeping now at least 7 hours, 7-7.5. I'm working out more, at least 15 more minutes have got added. And yes, we are all eating healthy. So I think personally, I've also lost 2 kg. I never came, but I've lost because life is healthy. So I think these are some of the benefits I would say. Thank you for being real loud. I really enjoyed our conversation and hopefully in the next 30-60 days or even earlier, we can get on to another conversation when some of the things you said have actually become a reality. We wish you luck, we wish Lenovo luck, we wish our industry luck. And we look forward to engaging with you on another issue in happier, better times. Over to Chati. Thank you Anurag. I just want to tell you that I think your questions were very real. So that helped me answer them really, even on hypothetical questions. So thank you for keeping me honest there. And it was a pleasure coming here and I wish exchange for media all the best. I think the way you guys are dealing with this situation is quite admirable. And I think I wish you all the success for this Econ Clay. Thank you Rahul. You've been a big support to us and part of our big initiatives for the last 7-8 years, 10 years. And we hope to continue to engage with you on this. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you so much Rahul. Thank you. So thank you Mr. Agarwal and Dr. Batra for such an insightful session. And we thank of course Mr. Agarwal for giving us this valuable time.