chapter 12 verses 27 through 36 now my soul is troubled and what shall I say father saved me from this hour but for this purpose I came to this hour father glorify your name then a voice came from heaven saying I have both glorified it and will glorify it again therefore the people who stood by and heard it said that it had thundered others said an angel has spoken to him Jesus answered and said this voice did not come because of me but for your sake now is the judgment of this world now the ruler of this world will be cast out and I if I am lifted up from the earth will draw all peoples to myself this he said signifying by what death he would die the people answered him we have heard from the law that the Christ remains forever how can you say the Son of man must be lifted up who is this Son of man and Jesus said to them a little while longer the light is with you walk while you have the light less darkness overtake you he who walks in darkness does not know where he's going while you have the light believe in the light that you may become sons of light these things Jesus spoke and departed and was hidden from them now as we look at this passage we need to remember that Jesus had just been approached by two of his disciples Philip and Andrew and they had brought word to him that there were certain Greeks who wanted to see him now Jesus immediately recognized the request as an indication that his time had arrived his time I was sharing with you is his appointed time the appointed time to give up his life that that appointed time for his crucifixion has finally arrived and he's going to be glorified and the way he's going to be glorified is through his death because when he dies his death will produce a harvest of believers and and we know that to be what would be called God's plan of redemption in Isaiah 53 verses 10 and 11 it says it was the Lord's will to crush him and cause him to suffer and though the Lord makes his life a guilt offering he will see his offspring and prolong his days and the will of the Lord will prosper in his hand after the suffering of his soul he will see the light of life and be satisfied by his knowledge my righteous servant will justify many and he will bear their iniquities and so God's plan of redemption was for Jesus to bear the iniquities of people that they might come to faith in him and have a relationship with God so Jesus is about to give up his life and he's doing so voluntarily no one took his life from him he of his own will laid it down so because he is voluntarily laying down his life those who follow him are to be prepared to renounce anything anything that keeps them from the Lord in Mark 8 35 through 37 Jesus said it like this he said whoever desires to save his life will lose it but whoever loses his life for my sake and the Gospels will save it then he asked the question what will it profit a man if he gains the whole world and loses his own soul or what will a man give in exchange for his soul he's about to lay his life down voluntarily and his followers are to be prepared to renounce anything that keeps them from him and so in verse 26 he said if anyone serves me let them let them follow me where I am there my servant will be also and he went on to say if anyone serves me him my father will honor so honor from the father is to be chosen over any earthly honor we might receive from man that is a very important thing to always remember because sometimes the Lord may elevate you to a position of prominence and you can get caught up with that position of prominence and forget to honor the Lord we need to remember that no matter where it is or what we have what kind of positions we may have that that the most important thing for us is to remember to to choose to honor the Lord above anything else because when we seek honor from man we may be rejecting honor from the Lord and John 544 the question is asked how can you believe who receive honor from one another and do not seek the honor that comes from the only God how can you how can you believe when you're seeking man's praise rather than God's that's why Philippians 2 verse 3 says let nothing be done through selfish ambition or conceit but in loneliness of mind let each esteem others better than himself and so Jesus is here and he's speaking in verse 27 and he says my soul is troubled what shall I say father saved me from this hour but for this purpose I came to this hour he says my soul the word soul in the original language the Greek language is the word Suke and Suke speaks of the mind it's the seat of all natural feelings and emotions I'm troubled agitated when he says I'm troubled that means to be anxious or distressed I I'm disturbed or disquieted I'm restless and so when he says that my soul is troubled his words reveal a resistance the idea of a violent death he came for that purpose but it's difficult for him to go through it so what am I to do what am I to do am I to pray that God will save me from having to die well this is interesting this being the last week of his ministry on earth this is something that you see a similar thing once again later on when Jesus is in Gethsemane Mark tells us that Jesus experienced agony while he was in the garden in Mark 1434 he told Peter James and John he said my soul is exceedingly sorrowful even to death then he went on to say in verses 35 and 36 Mark says he went a little farther fell on the ground prayed that if it were possible the hour might pass from him he said Abba father all things are possible for you take this cup away from me nevertheless not what I will but what you will my soul is troubled he says what shall I say father saved me from this hour later on he was praying they're in that garden and then Luke reminds us and the physician Luke says that he was sweating as it were great great droplets of blood he was in that kind of anxiety that kind of stress that kind of of agony and he was praying that same kind of thing but he he's already prepared when he said my soul is troubled but what shall I say saved me because it goes on to say this purpose I came to the hour I came for this purpose I know Jesus is saying my purpose I know why it came I came to do just this today I came to lay my life down in Matthew 28 and 19 he said we're going up to Jerusalem the son of man will be betrayed to the chief priests to the scribes they will condemn him to death deliver him to the Gentiles to mock discourage to crucify but it went on to say in the third day he will rise again what am I to say Lord save me from this hour no for this purpose I came to this hour I'm gonna be rejected Jesus says I'm gonna be put to death that's because he's what is called the wounded healer that's because he understands man he goes to things that man goes through he's aware of our sorrows Isaiah 53 verse 3 he's despised rejected by men a man of sorrows acquainted with grief and we hit as it were our faces from him he was despised we did not esteem him so should I attempt to avoid laying down my life in this fashion no because this is why I've come this is why I came in the first place in Hebrews 2 verse 10 it says it was fitting for him for whom are all things and by whom are all things in bringing many sons to glory to make the captain of their salvation perfect through sufferings so in doing my father's will I'm looking past the crucifixion to the future to the fruit to the glory the psalmist in Psalm 40 verses 7 and 8 said wrote then I said behold I come in the scroll of the book it's written of me I delight to do your will oh my God your lies within my heart so this joy of laying his life down in order that he might be reunited with his father and that he might bring many people to to heaven with him is what motivated him Hebrews 12 to says looking unto Jesus the author and finisher of our faith who for the joy that was set before him endured the cross despising the shame sat down at the right hand of the throne of God and so he says my soul is troubled what shall I say save me but for this purpose I came then he goes into verse 28 and he says father glorify your name a voice came from heaven saying I have both glorified it and will glorify it again glorify your name Jesus obviously is praying that that the Lord might receive glory that his father might be glorified in Ephesians chapter 2 verses 4 through 7 Paul said God who is rich in mercy because of his great love with which he loved us even when we were dead in trespasses made us alive together with Christ by grace you've been saved and raised us up together and made us sit together in the heavenly places in Christ Jesus that in the ages to come he might show the exceeding riches of his grace in his kindness toward us in Christ Jesus and so he says father glorify your name and notice verse 28 again a voice came from heaven saying I have both glorified it and will glorify it again this isn't the first time we read in Scripture of God's voice ringing out from the heavens when Jesus was baptized it's recorded in Matthew 3 17 that suddenly a voice came from heaven saying this is my beloved son in whom I am well pleased you read in Mark chapter 9 verse 7 and at what is called the transfiguration where it says a cloud came and overshadowed them a voice came out of the cloud saying this is my beloved son hear him well here we once again have an example of the Lord speaking a voice came from heaven saying I have both glorified it and will glorify it again in other words I have glorified it in the past I will I will glorify myself in the future and it will be especially something that will happen will especially bring glory to me and that is when Jesus goes to the cross and when he's resurrected somebody wrote his life revealed the mercy love and majesty of the father and had to many glorified the father's name his upcoming death and resurrection will reveal God's character and therefore glorify the father's name to the entire world well as this is taking place he's saying my soul is troubled father glorify your name and then this voice comes and says I have both glorified it and will glorify it again notice what happens verse 29 the people who stood by and heard it said that it had thundered others said an angel has spoken and so they're listening and they hear but they don't get it when it says the people the word people there you might find this interesting if you take notes it is interesting the word the people is really speaking of a multitude a great amount of people is what it's speaking about not just two or three people is speaking about a great amount the people is a crowd so within this crowd within the multitude of people some hear the voice and I want to speak on this for just a moment some hear the voice but to them it's a natural phenomena to them it's something like thunder they hear the sound but it's natural to them it's like it's like like they say it well some are saying it thundered it's just a natural thing but others hear it and they attach spiritual significance to it they say an angel spoke to him now in order to understand that we need to remember that at this time there were there was there were rabbinic teachings related to angels and all and there were those who who thought that God did not speak to men but instead would do so through them through the agency of angels you see that in Hebrews chapter 2 verse 2 where the writer says the message spoken through angels was binding in Galatians 3 19 it says the law was given through angels and trusted to a mediator and so there was a common belief at that time amongst many people through the rabbinic teachings that God himself wouldn't speak but angels would do it and that's one of the reasons why they're attaching spiritual significance to this they're saying an angel has spoken to him what's interesting is you have on the one hand people who are just very natural just natural people they're just natural unspiritual people and you have others who have a bit of a spiritual understanding so on the one hand you have someone say well it's just thundering on the other hand you have people say no an angel is speaking to him and I find that interesting to see that contrast by way of application people can hear the same words but still not understand what's being communicated they can hear God's voice as a word is taught but they think it's just that guy's opinion they don't have the Holy Spirit they don't hear what's being said you you can go to a Bible study a church service and as an unbeliever and you hear the same words that that the person's next to you is hearing same words you hear the same story you hear everything the same and yet an invitation is given and one guy remains in his seat because he's saying in his own heart it thundered it's a natural thing this guy's eloquent perhaps he's intelligent perhaps he got opinions perhaps whatever he's thinking well now that's true that may be true that may not be true and so this message is being given and one person is sitting there saying you know when is this over I got to get going whatever because they're the natural man then you have somebody else in the same place listening saying that's the voice of God there's something spiritual about what's taking place it happens every time I teach every time there are people who are seated there who say it's just thunder it's just words it's just noise there are others who are saying well there's something spiritual here an angel spoke the interesting thing I want you to notice this is verse 28 because in verse 28 it says a voice came from heaven saying I have both glorified it and will glorify it again John heard the voice John heard the words one person saying an angel speaking another one saying thunder but John is telling us and this gives us insight there's the natural man who rejects the things of the Spirit of God there's the spiritual minded person who can pick up bits and pieces of it and then there's a person who knows the Lord who says this is exactly what he said so you see that in this in these two verses here they hear the same thing but some understand because the Holy Spirit made it clear to them in first Corinthians 214 and I'm using what is called the new living translation because it reads easier it says people who aren't Christians can't understand these truths from God's Spirit it all sounds foolish to them because only those who have the Spirit can understand what the Spirit means and that's true that's true only those with the Spirit of the Lord can understand what God is saying the natural man receive it not the things of the Spirit of God for they are foolishness foolishness to them neither can you know them for they are spiritually discerned that's what first Corinthians 214 says the natural man the natural man is the unspiritual man the non-Christian the natural man the person who doesn't have the Spirit of God the natural man doesn't receive the word receive in the Greek language doesn't welcome doesn't accept doesn't invite in the natural man the unspiritual man does not welcome in does not invite in the things of the Spirit of God why because they are foolishness the word foolishness means imbecilic or moronic they make no sense the natural man receives not the things of the Spirit of God for they are foolishness neither can he know them he doesn't have personal experience with them why because they're spiritually received a believer can hear a Bible study and and and it is deep calling to deep there's words of truth and as they listen to the Bible being explained the Holy Spirit takes the words and and as they're listening they have this this connection to what's being said and they say I get it I see I understand that that's true because God takes his word and he knits it in your heart when you receive it by faith but a person who doesn't know the Lord they don't receive it but you know that you know I admire you Christians you know I think that you do good it's nice that you have charities and I'm glad that you guys had orphanages and I realize that you guys started colleges and and that you're behind you know all so many acts of mercy hospitals they came from your faith and there's quite a number of things that the Christian Christianity brought into the world that people take for granted and didn't even realize that it was because of our love for Christ that we actually started the Red Cross that we actually had the first universities in the United States and the first universities Harvard and Princeton and Yale the first universities were started in order to train ministers of the gospel to go out and reach the indigenous peoples and bring them to faith in Jesus Christ most people don't know that because they have forgotten their history they have forgotten Princeton used to be that was was actually a seminary Princeton and it became what it is today all we know of Princeton Harvard Yale and all of the Ivy League schools now as we just know that they put out a lot of very brilliant atheists and agnostics but in their origin they were training people to take the gospel to the world that's why they were started to reach people with the message of Christ they have forgotten their history they have forgotten why they even began in the first place you see and so there are people who who are kind of like they they they nod appreciate in appreciation towards believers because perhaps they're educated to realize that the hospitals and and orphanages and and charitable institutions and all of that that were really originated with Christians who cared about the hurt and the orphans and how do we take care of them so we did welfare we helped them not welfare as you know what here in the United States but we helped it we helped them to to to live to survive to be to be trained and and that's that's what the church is always done so somebody sits and they listen to what's being said and they say well you know that makes some sense and all of that but it's still still looked at as being well it's just a philosophy and and they'll say things like you know atheists can do good things too and and Buddhists can and so can Muslims and also what makes yours any better than theirs and and they'll they'll say that you know it's under then there's others who say well no an angel spoke you know there's some spiritual truth to this there's a quality of truth that's spiritual not natural but John because he knows Jesus is able to say no this is what he said I have both glorified it and will glorify it again so you have three different types of responses a natural kind of a spiritual and are one that's spiritual spiritually led and taught which is John and John makes it very clear that God is saying I glorified it and I will glorify it again and so as this is taking place first 30 Jesus answered and he said this voice did not come because of me but for your sake I don't need any audible confirmation I already know what I'm here for but you needed to hear this this voice you're hearing this sound you're hearing is confirming my ministry this voice really is for your benefit not mine and maybe that those Greeks who had wanted to see Jesus maybe those Greeks who were present needed such a sign and so he says this is why it is it's for your sake and not for mine and so in verse 31 now now is the judgment of this world now the ruler of this world will be cast out and and I if I am lifted up from the earth will draw all people to myself and this he said signifying by what death he would die now is the judgment of this world that that word judgment when you look up its meaning it speaks of a decision that has been given especially concerning justice or injustice or that which is right or that which is wrong a decision concerning justice injustice or the right or wrong the point is though the world is about to condemn itself by the way that it treats Jesus the world is about to put God's son to death thus rejecting their only way to salvation in John 3 18 and 19 Jesus said he who believes in him is not condemned but he who does not believe is condemned already because he has not believed in the name of the only begotten son of God and this is the condemnation that the light has come into the world and men loved darkness rather than light because their deeds were evil they they like the darkness because the darkness hides their deeds it hides it you know crimes are committed 24-7 of course but many people prefer the darkness to commit their crimes in sin happens all the time 24-7 many people prefer the darkness to engage in their sins and so people love the darkness and that's what it is they got they're going to be putting God's son to death they're rejecting their only way to salvation so judgment has come and notice he says the ruler of this world will be cast out and so many says the ruler that word ruler is also translated chief or leader so the ruler the chief the leader of this world will be notice cast out so in verse 31 Satan is referred to as a prince a ruler and this was actually what has been called a rabbinic title for Satan the prince of this age or the prince of this world Satan is the ruler Jesus said the devil who has so long reigned and enslaved mankind Jesus is saying is about to be dethroned now Satan received authority when he deceived Eve and Adam voluntarily sinned it says in Luke chapter 4 verses 5 and 6 that when Jesus was being tempted that the devil taking him up on a high mountain showed him all the kingdoms of the world in a moment of time and the devil said to him all this authority I will give you and their glory for this has been delivered to me and I give it to whomever I wish through his deception he got a position where he could even say to Jesus this has been given to me it was yielded to me and I have authority I can use it Jesus in John 14 30 says I will no longer talk much with you for the ruler of this world is coming he has nothing in me and at first John 5 19 John said it like this he said we know that we are of God and the whole world lies under the sway of the wicked one he's called the prince of this age the prince of the world there are those who say they don't believe in the devil but Jesus most certainly spoke to him and spoke because he is real and he's speaking about him being dealt with he's to be dethroned you know Satan's goal is to keep mankind in spiritual blindness to continue to encourage people to reject Jesus's offer of salvation in 2nd Corinthians chapter 4 verses 3 and 4 Paul said even if our gospel is veiled it's veiled to those who are perishing whose minds the God of this age has blinded who do not believe lest the light of the gospel of the glory of Christ is the image of God should shine on them it's veiled the enemy wants to keep us in spiritual blindness he wants to keep us in spiritual bondage but Jesus says Satan is about to be dethroned he's about to be deprived of the power he exercises in the hearts of unbelievers you see the sacrifice of Jesus and the message of the gospel sets captives free and he's about to give a basis for the judgment of the world the overthrowing of Satan the establishment of his kingdom through his followers and so he says in verse 32 he said if I be lifted up from the earth I will draw all peoples to myself when I first got saved that scripture was first introduced to me but it was misinterpreted and for a long time you know when you're when you're new created this way when you're a new Christian and you're reading the Bible you might get something you think is some kind of wonderful inside a revelation and when in fact you just miss reading the scripture and so my friends we're all brand new Christians I mean the oldest person amongst us in the Lord was a year old in faith I remember being at a Bible study where this young woman said today is my spiritual birthday I'm one year old in Jesus and and I was seated there and I was only a month and a half old in Jesus and I was thinking wow it was like I was looking at the apostle Paul you know Pauline and as and I'll never forget that I thinking man what's it going to be like when I've been a Christian a whole year a whole year and so you know babies are interesting when babies try to feed one another you ever watch baby try and feed another baby it's very humorous except to the mom who has to clean them up because I have seen it where an infant will just take the little hand in whatever the applesauce and then try and put it in the mouth of the baby next to him have you ever seen I have you know and then the other one will do that their faces are all messed up and filled with applesauce and all of that babies feeding babies always make a mess and when young believers are trying to feed other believers we can make a mess and so there I was getting some applesauce in my face you know because they're saying Jesus said if I be lifted up I will draw all men into myself and then they said so that's what we're doing right now we're singing and worshiping and praying and we're lifting him up but that's not what Jesus is talking about what Jesus said if I be lifted up what he is meaning is when I'm crucified he was lifted up under the cross and when I am crucified when I am put to death when I die for the sin of the whole world is what he's referring to he says if I be lifted up from there it's the crucifixion it's the death of Christ that draws people when I'm crucified though it appears I lost yet I will be victorious and by it by my death I will draw people to myself you see the Holy Spirit draws people to Christ through the preaching of the cross we make a big mistake when we think we can entertain people into salvation we make a big mistake when we think we can sing them into salvation the way you get saved is not by being entertained we know this we aren't saved because we like that song we're saved because the gospel of Jesus was proclaimed to us and it's the gospel that sets us free in 1 Corinthians 1 17 and 18 Christ did not send me to baptize but to preach the gospel not with wisdom of words lest the cross of Christ should be made of no effect the message of the cross is foolishness to those who are perishing but to us who are being saved it is the power of God in Romans 1 16 and 17 I'm not ashamed of the gospel of Christ it's the power of God to salvation for everyone who believes for the Jew first and also the Greek for in it the righteousness of God is revealed from faith to faith as it is written that just shall live by faith I'm not ashamed of the gospel it's a power of God into salvation and so we make a big mistake when we don't preach the gospel we make a big mistake when we substitute man's inventive kinds of ideas and we pollute that I'll be teaching this on Sunday mixing man's wisdom with with our philosophy and producing people who believe what we're saying but not God himself it's the gospel that saves you it's the word of God we need to understand that today it's the gospel it's the truth of the gospel that purifies minds it's the truth of the gospel that illuminates darkened understanding and so I'm 36 verse 9 it says with you is the fountain of life in your light we see light and so Jesus said I will be lifted up and I will draw all people to myself and he says in verse 33 this he said signified by what death he would die well verse 34 the people answered him we've heard from the law that the Christ remains forever how can you say the son of man must be lifted up who is the son of man Jesus said to them a little while longer the light is with you walk while you have the light less darkness overtake you he who walks in darkness does not know where he's going while you have the light believe in the light that you may become sons of light these things Jesus spoke and departed and was hidden from them well we've heard they say in verse 34 that crisis to remain when he says we've heard from the law that speaks of the normally the first five books of the Old Testament which is referred to as the law of Moses but here it appears to have a broader meaning it speaks of scripture in general you see in Daniel 714 it says then to him was given dominion and glory in a kingdom that all peoples nations and languages should serve him his dominion is the never lasting dominion which shall not pass away his kingdom the one which shall not be destroyed well we've heard that that when Messiah comes that that he's going to continue that he remains forever so they had drawn the conclusion that Messiah cannot die because scripture said his throne kingdom and reign shall be eternal so they're confused and that's why in verse 35 Jesus said a little while longer the light is with you walk while you have the light you see Jesus who is the light of life is going to give up his life for them and the darkness according to verse 35 the darkness desires to dominate but suddenly sees and control you so walk in the light so that you can see where you're going and be free and be free he says in verse 35 he who walks in darkness doesn't know where he's going in John 11 10 if one walks in the night he stumbles because the light's not in him in Romans 13 12 through 14 the night is far spent the day is at hand therefore let us cast off the works of darkness let us put on the armor of light let us walk properly as in the day not in revelry and drunkenness not in lewdness and lust not in strife and envy put on the Lord Jesus Christ make no provision for the flesh to fulfill its lust and so Jesus is saying this verse 36 where you have the light believe in the light that you may become sons of light well you have the light believe well you have me follow me when you have the light believe in the light either you're walking in darkness or you're walking in the light but you don't do it simultaneously either you walk in darkness habitually living a life of spiritual darkness or you come to faith in Jesus Christ and you learn to walk in his light when you walk in his light as he is in the light then you have fellowship with another in the blood of Jesus Christ to send cleanses you from all sin so you have fellowship with God in one another your life is pure and you have a relationship that is centered on Christ and so Jesus is making it very clear soon this light will be taken he's about to be crucified but you need to believe in him to believe in him is going to make you into what is called a child or children of the light so instead of being children of darkness you're going to be children of the light and one thing about light and darkness is under normal circumstances they don't coexist because if you want to drive darkness out all you need to do is turn on a light right you go into your room and it's dark all you need to do is turn on a light when you turn on the light you know in a metaphoric way you turn on the light and the darkness flees because darkness cannot exist where there's light so we have to make a choice guys am I gonna walk in the light as he's in the light or am I gonna walk in darkness I can't do both so I make a decision the decision is I will walk in the light I will follow Christ I will have relationship with him Jesus laid his life down for me and I will follow him


Thank you, Tom. Is it okay if I speak like this? Can you hear me at the back? Right. Okay, so I'm going to be quite fast because I would like to cover a lot of things. I'm going to tell you about the results of a project that finished a few months ago. And basically the motivation was this. We found, or as probably most of you know, we went to disseminate archaeological information. And the previous presentation concluded precisely with a point about this. And in addition, we wanted to get the feedback from the citizens who are looking at that information. And we wanted to integrate different datasets. We wanted to disseminate information that comes from very different places made by different people that haven't talked to each other at all. Okay, so this was a bit of a challenge. How did we do this? Okay. Basically, you can think of an organization producing archaeological data, another one, another one, another one. And we will end up with a lot of different datasets. Okay, hence the heterogeneous datasets. Our aim was to somehow integrate all those into a single dataset, at least as far as the citizens are concerned, and present that to the citizenship through a unified interface. So people using mobile phones or computers at home or whatever could browse and get to that information and perhaps give us some information back about anything. Right, so this is a bit of a dream we had at the beginning. Okay, this had to be a proof of concept. We didn't aim to produce a tool that could be usable by anyone. And we didn't aim to, on the other hand, to produce just a theory of some description on paper. I wanted to create some actual software that could work as a demonstrator of this infrastructure actually working. So I'm going to tell you quickly about the datasets we work with, how we integrated them together, how we tackle this issue through conceptual modeling technologies, and finally what kind of system we built and how users interacted with it. I know it's a lot, so I'm going to be fast. Okay, we started with two datasets in Spain. One was created by us, the one on the right-hand side, by the institution I work with. The other one was created by some people about 1,200 kilometers to the south in Andalusia, describing a very different kind of archaeological situation. Both datasets included a lot of structural information and some structured text descriptions of sites and objects and everything, and also a lot of multimedia details as well. We have lots of pictures and other multimedia elements. The technologies we use were these two. Basically, we applied Charm, the cultural heritage absent reference model, which we've been working with for a while already. This allowed us to have a comprehensive model of both datasets and then have specific models for each of them. I will come back to this idea later. And we use Konimela's conceptual modeling language because of its expressive power, especially in terms of multilinguality, subjectivity modeling, temporal modeling, etc. Okay, so basically we started with Charm, which is, as I said, a reference model, a very abstract description of what the archaeological record looks like without making any specific commitments about types or specific kinds of things. And from Charm, we derived a model that was specific to our project, a model that's addressed the very specific issues of interaction with the citizenship and getting feedback, right? And then from that model, we refined it a bit further into two different models, one reflecting or capturing the structure of the first dataset, the second one reflecting the structure of the second one. Okay, so with this in mind, we have to say that these three models that we created specifically for this project are the models that, in some fashion, give us the structure, the information that the citizens are going to interact with, okay? The fact that we are using Charm is important from a technical point of view that it's totally invisible to the users interacting with the system through the mobile application. Right, I don't assume you will read that. This is just a quick overview of what one of the models looks like. So this is how we created the knowledge models of the datasets. This is one of them, ours, and actually. Basically, I don't know if you can see that there are two colors. Some boxes are green, some boxes are yellow, more or less. Well, the green ones are stand for concepts that are taken straight from Charm, from the standard, whereas the yellow ones are concepts we added as part of the refinement process, right? Okay, we used some tool sets we developed in-house to actually put this into computer form and created instance models that contain all the information. You could say that we actually translated or converted the original datasets, which were in different formats. We had extra spreadsheets, we had some database records, we had Word documents, everything together, and we converted all the sources into a comprehensive repository of information. Then we created a software system. For the technically inclined, this is how it looks like. We work with a data server, in-house data server, that holds both support database as well as two different datasets with a modeling engine, supported by a modeling engine. This is used by a web server that exposes the information to the public through a totally standard web service front-end and also exposes an administrative website for us to monitor what citizens are doing, how information is going, browse, etc. This means that any user in the world, just using an application, a mobile app that can be freely downloaded from the Apple Store, can connect to this website, sorry, to this web service front-end and get to the information. No, I'm fine. Thank you. What can the users do? Basically, we implemented flexible search features in the mobile application so people could find any archaeological element either around themselves or within a specific area or a specific category or just by looking for a text. If you know the name of the place, you can just type it in and the system will give it to you. The application also implemented some mechanisms for making comments, rate size, rate things, interaction, a sort of mini Twitter, if you want, embedded within the application. Because, as I said at the beginning, one of the aims of the project was to get some feedback from the citizenship about the information being exposed. And finally, we also implemented a feature for the users to be able to suggest missing information. Many times you find that the local people who are living next to a site know a lot about the site and sometimes they are able to give you some feedback about what the site is looking like right now or what kind of information is incorrect or just missing from the system. OK, so this is what the application looks like. It's not in English, it's in Spanish. So, well, that's tough, I'm sorry. I will quickly give you a review of what you can do. Here you have a home screen showing a list of sites that are around you or are suggested by the system. You can touch one of them. You can search. For instance, this screen shows a search for a specific category. So only show me entities of whatever category you want. If you go into one of them by touching it, you see a complete description, including pictures, location maps, texture descriptions, etc. This looks very simple, but behind the scenes, remember that what this is doing is directing the queries of the users to one data set or another, depending on what information required is, integrating that and giving back to the user as a single homogeneous data set. You can, of course, play with location maps, click there and explore the information as you wish. I have the application on my phone, if any of you is interested later. As I said, the interesting thing of the project is not the application itself. This is just if you want a means to develop an end, which is what I was showing before in previous slides. After doing some interaction with users, we basically... Well, we wanted to interact with users in different amounts. So first of all, as I said, we uploaded the application to the Apple Store and people downloaded it freely. Unfortunately, we didn't get that many downloads. Some people did, but I mean, this was a research project. We did have very limited funds, very limited time. And the dissemination we did of this was limited as well. Still, some people downloaded it and used it. Then we selected some used groups for focus testing. We sent people to the field in both areas, up north-west, down in the south. And we did some field testing with users and asked for explicit feedback. And thirdly, we also sent some work to do some people to do some field work interviewing pilgrims on route to Santiago de Compostela and who presumably would be interested in using the application. Conclusions about this work was, well, the technical aspects, the capability of these technologies to integrate heterogeneous datasets and federate queries is good. In that respect, we are happy with the technologies employed that have proven that they actually work nicely when they are actually implemented in an actual software application and put to work in the real world, if you wish, outside of the lab. We still need to do some improvements. We are working currently in some very deep improvements to the modern technologies we used. I'm not going to go into this in detail, but if you are interested in what kind of improvements, what kind of weaknesses we have, how we are planning to solve them, just please let me know and I'll be delighted to talk to you. We got some valuable feedback from citizens, although not a lot, as I said before, this was a limited resource, a limited time project. And we, well, we had inevitably to end up asking ourselves how interesting is archaeology to regular citizens, actually. We often assume people are very interested in our cultural heritage, and that is fair enough. But when we actually try to get some people to give us some time and spend some time with us and look at this information, give us some feedback, not everyone is openly available and willing to do it. So we need to perhaps challenge us a bit more and stop assuming that everyone is going to be willing to engage in that kind of thing. I know this is a very... A lot of nuance can be added to this challenge, and I'm also very happy to talk about it, but this is something I believe we have to do. Thank you very much.


Good evening. This is crime classics. I am Thomas Highland with another true story of crime Listen six shots from a colt 44 For no reason whatsoever other than to get your ear attuned to what you're going to hear Of course, I might have said that the colt 44 belonged to our hero And our hero happened to be walking the field and plucking off rail birds But he would have done that for no reason whatsoever, too So here we are Our hero's name is William Bonney a lad who was a product of his time and whose time may be described as a blot So tonight my report to you on Billy Bonney blood letter also known as the kid Crime classics a series of true crime stories from the records and newspapers of every land from every time Your host each week mr. Thomas Highland Connoisseur of crime student of violence and teller of murders now once again, mr. Thomas Highland Bonney got to be 12 years old by being born in New York City in 1859 and being in Silver City, New Mexico in 1871 He was not tall for his age, but he was a smart one Give him a pack of cards and say Billy Let's see a deal of foolhouse from the bottom and the boys nimble fingers would flip three aces and two ladies in front of you quicker and short with a cut snout or Put a few stick in his little fist and if he didn't hit you with it He'd run the rack in rotation like is not real smart on a sunny day You could see him walking down the shady side of the street Whistling and handling the odd mints in his little pocket a slingshot a pair of dice Shaved and a knife razor sharp There he goes I'm playing cards Billy get away. I know you're playing cards, and I wish you luck But I got a talk to get out of My mother was crying this morning. Mr.  Thank you If you ain't the one Billy Now Billy dearly loved his mother and he couldn't stand to see her cry a good boy He stabbed mr.  Garvey a thing or two and she did this Pat at her son's tousel hair gave him five silver dollars and told him to get out of town Billy did I'd like to know a pick out a couple of more highlights at random Events in Billy's life before he was 17 of Here's one morning mr. Carpa morning son What you doing feeding my horse mr. Carpa paint your horse son? Tiz paint tiz paint Was Here's another one kid Yeah, bet Bet what like I've been saying bet you twenty five dollars. I kill someone today before you do You mean it. I mean it Stack me 25 on the table and I'll stack mine. Sure Now it's a bit all right. Ain't it now it's a bet Draw what hot out there in the street.  Murphy the other led by mr. Chisholm and mr. McSween Mr. Murphy had the law on his side, but mr. Murphy and the law happened to be thieves Mr. Chisholm and mr. McSween were outside the law, but they were the good guys and Billy the kid was on their side During this war Billy kills five men the fifth man died hard The war was never really resolved in spite of the United States cavalry appearing at a fast trot from time to time Stopping someone shouting forward someone's blowing a bugle and then trotting on again And it was in this war that Billy grew to full stature five foot eight Also, his reputation as a killer 16 men since he was 12 Also, he liked to have his tousaled hair played with Let's see your name was Paul Eater Paul Eater and you they call Billy. Yeah Billy Nino Nino boy young boy That's right They call me Billy the kid What when I see you're riding through Fort Summon When I see you the way you are writing the way you do Here is where the wings beat inside of me I've been to your country. Do you know that make sure three years ago? Kill the man in El Paso on a posse chase me fair across the border. Well, did you like my country? Sure? Sorry to leave it, but I had to okay kill the man Sonora Mexican police chased me back over to Rio Grande Billy yeah Many girls in Fort Summon or do as I do watch you as you ride by Then they meet together and talk of you and giggle. What do they say? Kiss me Billy. Yeah, I want to You do that What you were doing? To my hair Like this Yeah At the very moment that this was going on and not dreamt of by our star-crossed lovers who couldn't read anyhow Ben Hur was being written The writer's name as we all know is Lou Wallace He was in the area at the time being governor and peacemaker That's it Another chapter done the one where Ben Hur and Marsala meet face-to-face and toss jibes But the general's day is not over. I Guess I'd better more writing to be done. So the general picks up his pen Writes and when he's finished reads over what he's written Dear Billy, you don't know me, but I know you I'm your governor and I want to see you I've got a proposition that I think you might be interested in. Hello governor. Oh, hi Billy Had you a letter read to me by my partner at Charlie Baudry? He says you got a proposition is interesting to me. I'm offering you amnesty Billy What's that? Don't wear your gun anymore and no law is going to touch you. I Killed a lot of men governor. I come you're offering. Let's start having a little piece around here. That's all Oh, I'm for that governor. I've always been for that. Well now. I'm glad to hear it except nobody Let me be peaceful. Well, it's going to be different now governor Don't me you know what had happened. I put away my gun. I'd be shot down like a dog I could name 12 men shoot me down soon as I see I was wearing no gun There's Bob Allinger. It's going to be different. You take all in here for a for instance. He's a deputy. He works for the sheriff You'll be wearing a gun will he? Yes. Yes.  You got a lot of living ahead of your son not without no gun It's going to be different You say I got a lot of living to do and I aim to do it governor Just cause you say words like Amnesty Ain't no magic word to make me front Bob Allinger for instance without no Billy I've got something else to offer you What else when all the shooting is done when the killings over how'd you like to be a sheriff? Look down there border bottom of the hill. Yeah, I see him What you reckon that doing? Digging I guess just digging maybe for a water hole or something Man has to be crazy to be digging in this hot sun local You gotta admit something about it. What I'm facing into the sun now What are you gonna shoot those three fellas for they ain't doing nothing.  You are listening to crime classics and your host Thomas Highland Driving tonight then remember this most highway deaths are caused by two temptations to cut out of line and to go too fast Crossing the center line of the road is more dangerous than you realize Statistics prove it excessive speed is just as dangerous as officials say you can predict your own impulses But you can never predict the other drivers when driving tonight drive cautiously, please and now once again Thomas Highland and the second act of crime classic and his report to you on Billy Bonnie blood letter also known as Kid You'll recall that earlier I referred to this era and scene of American history as a blot Well, I've been thinking it over and I must say that blot is a good word It was a terrible time in New Mexico Killer and murder and looting by a breed of men who did these things with no sense of shame or remorse This bleak country was a kind of trails end Spoilers came here and the buffalo killers and the gunslingers. I Suppose it was as good a place as any together because while they were killing each other off They couldn't break anything. There was hardly anything there a grand piano owned by a Mrs. McSweene early went up in smoke during the Lincoln County War and once a stray shot shattered Mrs. Gaffney's fluted terrine But aside from these a clever hand could mend anything in the area with adobe or a piece of wood You may ask them why did all these people kill each other my answer to you is that's what happens in a block But in 1880 the government officials in the area received notice to clean up Therefore general Lou Wallace summoned one Pat Garrett Got a paper here Pat from Washington says to clean up We're going to do it too But we're gonna need your help I heard you used to be a friend to Billy Billy Bonnie Pat the kid uh-huh That's why I'm forgetting all the things I've heard about you probably lies anyhow Want you to get Billy for me? Take a look pretty bad.  I'm a Pat You are the man to take Billy aren't you good luck Sheriff About the events which took place outside of Fort Sumner Well, let's see how they told about it at the time Let's see how the boys who wrote the 19th century paperbacks had at it Here's one written by Bledsoe Sheridan Jr. and entitled hero in ambush or the daring escape of brave Billy Bonnie Mr. Sheridan starts out this way Pat Garrett squinted steely eyes off into the distance. He saw six horsemen The sheriff turned to his lieutenant and he said men that is Billy the young boy and his desperado friends The worst will be a better place to live when he and his breed are six feet under Get out your pistols men and make sure they load it up. You there pick a spot get behind that boulder else They see you here they come and Bledsoe Sheridan Jr. Goes on The desperados came within a hundred feet of the boulders and were not aware of the ambush until In spite of all the steely eyes that must have been on both sides of the ambush and in spite of all the six shooters and shotguns There wasn't a scratch in the crowd Brave Billy Bonnie and his merry band turned tail and fled Bledsoe Jr.'s next chapter is aptly entitled Stinking Springs for that is where we pick up the boys When we gonna rest Billy Now I'm away then what They're gonna come after us, you know that border.  That was Pat Garrett one of what I could see it was He can get all he wants You scared Billy you're talking foolish, but Sure, I am Billy Yeah starting a snow Yeah One thing I'm glad about What?  You're here.  Just keep you cold pointing out just like that You get one of me here Just keep your hands way up there. You're not gonna get hurt Hi Wilson Glad to see you Come on get some coffee for yourself.  I swear Billy and then you know what?  I'm gonna kill me you Okay, I'll and y'all take garden now Explain to Billy how we're gonna hang him And watch how he does a thing You gotta watch him.  Now you know what Billy? That island just a man.  Open her up. Where'd I get me Bob Allinger? Room up in front where he sleeps This time and I guess that's where he just went. Hi Bob It's safe to assume that this was one of the happiest moments in Billy's life He had killed a fellow. He hated he felt so good about it He didn't even stop to wave Tata to share of Pat Garrett Just walked right out of there and drifted along down the trail which trail wound up across the street from Pete Maxwell's Which just happened to be Paulita's place? Love you Billy Love you and worry for you. Just love me. Just don't worry about me. That's all Billy what we can go to Mako. I've been thinking that oh bueno when when shall we go when you want to right now?  What do you want? Be careful Billy Maxwell is my friend. But be careful. Let go of me. Let it go. No, you say you'll be careful.  I could Was July 14th 1881 a killer was killed a bloodbath was over July 15th 1881 was one of the finest days in the history of New Mexico in just a moment Thomas Highland will tell you about next week's crime classic Billy the kid tonight's crime classic was adapted from the original court reports and newspaper accounts by Morton Fine and David Friedkin The music was composed and conducted by Bernard Herman and the program is produced and directed by Elliot Lewis Thomas Highland is portrayed on radio by Lou Merrill in Tonight's story Sam Edwards was heard as Billy featured in the cast were Jane Webb Clayton Post Anthony Barrett William Conrad Dick Beals Harry Bartell Barney Phillips and Fred Shield Bob LeMond speaking Here again is Thomas Highland next week Warwickshire England in the year 1905 and a lovely young lady whose married name was Catherine Hayes and whose ambition was to be a widow My report to you will be on John Hayes his head and how they were parted Thank you. Good night Right after stations identification keep tuned for a CBS radio sports exclusive as the middleweight champion of England meets the middleweight champ of America Randy Turpin versus Bobo Olson fighting 15 rounds for the title of the world Yes, it's next presented by CBS radio So stay tuned and hear it over most of these stations coming right up for newspaper adventure Rogers of the Gazette on the CBS radio network


Now, just like before, if we would use a fully connected neural networks for encoding and for decoding, they would have crazily large numbers of parameters. As such, we might hope that in this context of autoencoders, we can equally get a lot of mileage out of convolution. Now mind you, when we do convolution, we have a setting like this, where we have the convolution applied at multiple places, producing, say, the two by two outputs out of a four by four input. But if we want to see how good we are at decoding, then we will somehow need to invert this convolution operation. Like we just changed our dimensions. Now we need to go into the other direction. And for that, we can use the idea of deconvolution. So what we do in the case of deconvolution is we rather have something move over space here, potentially with stride, that sees these two by two outputs, potentially with padding, as you can see here, and then goes back in dimensionality to this higher dimensional space. And that should allow us to have fewer parameters and better generalization. And let's see if we can get there. So now do a non-linear and convolutional autoencoder. We want a mapping from the mapping for meaningful features, which is how we want to interpret C to images to be nonlinear. The encoder will be a conf net followed by linear projection. And the decoder will use deconvolution. And both can be nonlinear and therefore have re-lucid net. So now, why don't you train a convolutional autoencoder?


Good morning, welcome to CMC Markets on Friday the 16th of April and this quick look at the week ahead beginning the 9th of April with me, Michael Hewson. Before we get started, just put up a couple of risk warnings, but I think it's fairly safe to say that this week has been a fairly positive week for equity markets in general. We've seen record highs in the likes of the Euro stocks 50, the DAX, the stock 600, the C250, the S&P 500 and the Dow. Other indexes have indeed lagged behind, but certainly I think the prognosis for equity markets continues to look by and large fairly positive. This is despite improvements and I say despite improvements in economic data because normally what has been happening this year when economic data has come out much better than expected is bond yields have gone up. That hasn't happened over the course of the past few days which is slightly counter-intuitive and I'll explain that because ultimately the sliding yields that we've seen over the course of the past few days has been particularly puzzling simply because for the past three months yields have been on the rise due to concerns about higher prices, higher perceived concerns about higher levels of inflation and a strong economic recovery driven by large-scale fiscal and monetary stimulus both of which, all of which we're currently seeing weekly jobless claims at a post-pandemic low 576,000. We've seen CPI numbers come out higher than expected. Now it's easy to dismiss the CPI numbers why simply because you're having to take into account base effects inflation measurements a year ago or much, much lower than they are now simply because most of the global economy was in lockdown that has a deflationary effect on prices. So if you're comparing a deflationary shock a year later to the prices now you're always going to have slightly elevated prices. Yes there are concerns certainly I think in terms of prices paid, data that has been trending quite a bit higher that is largely down to supply chain constraints but overall the data has been by and large fairly positive and certainly in terms of the retail sales numbers that we saw out of the US. I did flag last week that we were likely to get a fairly decent beat on the basis of the fact that the stimulus checks hit the door mats in March and it would have been surprising would it not if we didn't get a significant rebound in retail sales off the back of that and that's exactly what we got 9.8%. So what does that mean for inflation expectations going forward because ultimately we got the data we expected and the yields fell back. So I think for me we can extrapolate that a number of ways either that the recovery is in the price already. Certainly I think there is there is an argument for that or that markets think that this could be as good as it gets. Now personally I don't think this is as good as it gets because the latter point doesn't bear up to scrutiny given that the April payrolls data which is due in two weeks time could well be even stronger than the March 916,000 new jobs that were added. So I think what we could be seeing here is perhaps a temporary leg lower before we get further upward pressure on yields. Maybe the market was so one way that it had nowhere else to go but down. Now certainly in terms of the price action that we're looking at here in terms of the 10 year yield what is significant and this is a warning sign is we've broken below the 158.75 lows from the 25th of March. There was a double tap there on the downside. We closed below that. Now what really needs to happen is for us to hold below 160. Now obviously if we move back above 160 that doesn't necessarily mean we're out of the woods. We do appear to be now in a slightly shorter term downtrend for US 10 year treasury yield. So maybe the top is in. We don't know yet. The data could get better. It certainly won't be anywhere near as good in terms of retail sales but certainly the labour market has potential to improve further. So the big question is how well does the labour market continue to improve but also what do prices do relative to the improvement in the labour market and that is likely I think to drive US bond yields over the course, long-term bond yields over the course of the next two to three months. So at the moment we appear to be capped around about 175. I think the next key support area is likely to be this low here around about 147-148. Take 150 I think probably as a fairly key support level overall. It's a nice round number but overall there does appear to be a slight change in emphasis now and that potentially we could start to see bond yields start to trickle off a little bit if the upcoming inflation data starts to show signs of levelling off. Certainly the markets appear to be pricing that in. So that's something that we'll be paying particular attention to over the coming days and I think that's what is helping to boost equity markets as well. I think diminishing fears about rampant inflation. I don't think that was ever likely irrespective of your views on the scale of the stimulus that's coming our way. There's still a significant demand shortfall at the moment and I think that while there is a demand deficit it's going to be very difficult for prices to start running away. We've seen an improvement in the latest Chinese economic data, China GDP, rose an annualised 18.3% in the first quarter again. Base effects account for the extent of that rebound in the first quarter of last year. The Chinese economy was in lockdown. Same applies to the retail sales numbers but I think one thing about the China retail sales numbers is that finally we appear to be seeing clear evidence that the Chinese economy is rebalancing more towards services and away from manufacturing and that is a good thing. A 50-50 split between the two is generally positive. Going forward I think the outlook still remains fairly positive for stock markets in general. Now you can argue about whether or not valuations are justifiable at current levels but at the end of the day we're not talking about the fundamentals here. We're talking about price and you could say well surely price reflects fundamentals. Well yes and no but price also reflects the amount of available liquidity that's sloshing around in the market. That liquidity has to go somewhere so essentially it goes into the markets. Now if we look at the FTSE 100 we've broken higher, we've finally hit that 7000 level. Whoever said patience has a virtue is a liar because it's been such a long time coming but finally we do appear to be seeing signs of the FTSE 100 on the cusp of potentially starting to ratchet its way higher. It's still got quite some way to go until we get all the way back here in the back of 2020 when we saw 7689, 7700 but we appear to be on the way there assuming we can hold above this 7000 level that we've broken above at the end of this week. But I've still got an end of year target on the FTSE 100, maybe a little bit conservative around about 7400. So FTSE 250 is already made record highs. If we look at the German DAX it's a similar sort of story. We've finally broken towards the upside after trading sideways three or four days but we can see quite clearly from this chart here we have a series of lows all the way through 15140. So stands to reason if we get a dip back there's likely to be very key support in and around the series of lows through here. Again the trend is your friends do not try and pick the top you're in the middle of an uptrend and the only reason to look at shorting a particular market or selling a particular market is if you're already long it's very much a case of the trend is your friend until it comes to an end and I know that sounds very cliched and I make no apology for it because ultimately it's the way that any sensible trader should trade markets you trade with the trend not against it. Here again the S&P 500 once again new record highs this week. Next target now 4200. So where's the support level I hear you cry? Well again I think if we're looking at the levels over the course of the past few days we can see there's fairly decent support in and around 4100. The lows there on the 12th of April and obviously the lows on the 13th of April 4100 is as good a support level as any given the fact that we found decent support there on Monday and Tuesday of this week. We're now at 4168 but it certainly does appear to be where the market wants to go. The NASDAQ is underperforming a little bit again that worries me somewhat but nonetheless what we have finally seen is a break higher on the NASDAQ through 14,000. Certainly we can see there's decent support all the way through these lows through here around about 13,780. Again it's looking for levels where the market has rebounded from. Now if you want to drill down into slightly greater detail on that it's fairly easy to do we can do that here and we can see throughout the week this week we found fairly decent buying interest in and around 13,780. So very easy to drill down into the detail you can see that there and gives you a much clearer idea of where the key support and resistance levels are. So as I say we've looked at all of them and now we can look ahead with a little bit of confidence I think in terms of what's coming up in the week ahead and it's quite a busy week by all accounts it's probably going to be a key focus on the UK economy which brings me on to the subject of the pound which has looked incredibly weak over the course of the past few days and I'm struggling to explain the reasons for that in the same way I'm struggling a little bit to explain why treasury yields are as weak as they are given the strength of the economic data that we've been seeing coming out of the US. Nonetheless you can't ignore what the price action is doing we've had a good run higher in the value of the pound over the course of the past few weeks and months and maybe now is a time for a little bit of a reassessment as to where we go to next but at the moment the sterling index the CMC sterling index is finding support with the bottom end of this downward channel that we're seeing here so maybe there's a perception perhaps that we're starting to find or we're trying to stretch we're trying to find a bottom basically and certainly I think that's particularly prevalent in the way that euro sterling has been behaving that's been the ultimate pain trade if you're playing a short position certainly in terms of where I see euro sterling I don't like it here I think it's probably needs to be lower but nonetheless I think so does everybody else and that's why I think it can start to become what is perceived to be a little bit of a crowded trade so that makes this week's coming economic data out of the UK that much more important obviously the the rally in the pound has been largely as a result of the successful vaccination program that's being rolled out and perceptions that the economic recovery here in the UK will be much stronger than say for Europe than Europe now Europe is obviously behind in its vaccination program but by and large the data that we've been seeing out of Europe has despite the evidence of a third wave been improving ever so slightly on a month-on-month basis certainly in terms of the flash PMIs that we've got coming out later in the week from France Germany in the UK it's been clear for several months now that economic activity between the services of manufacturing has been diverging nonetheless we have started to see a little bit of improvement in services relative to manufacturing manufacturing has been very very good certainly in terms of the PMIs out of France and Germany but we're starting to see evidence of a little bit of divergence between the French manufacturing PMIs and the actual hard data because February manufacturing and industrial production for France was absolutely dreadful at the same time as the PMIs are fairly positive so there is a little bit of a divergence there which is difficult to explain just by looking at the PMIs so we need to be a little bit careful about that nonetheless we've got the flash PMIs for April coming out later in the week and they should give us a good indication as to whether or not services is going to continue to improve going forward so keep an eye out for them given the fact that we're getting large second waves of infections in Germany and France and see whether or not the improvements that we saw in March are sustained I suspect they may find it difficult to do so but in terms of the UK data that we've got coming out I think the big level on euro sterling is highlighted on the chart that you can see in front of you right now it's around about 87.30 there is evidence perhaps the shorts in sterling are starting to get a little bit squeezed and we can see further squeezing if we break above 87.30, 87.40 so that for me I think is the key level going forward if we do break high we'll probably get a sharp move to 88 and the 100 day moving average but nonetheless one buyer still remains for a stronger pound and a weaker euro we've also got the European Central Bank rate meeting so there could be a little bit of what I would call position squaring ahead of that because I think some of the narrative out of the European Central Bank in the past few weeks has been not as dovish perhaps as you'd like it to be there's been I think there's significant divisions on the governing council about the scale of the asset purchase program that's currently being rolled out across the euro area you've had a count number of members French central bank governor for example the Villa Roy Gahal basically saying that he wants to terminate the asset purchase program by March 2022 which would be well ahead of any potential timing from the Federal Reserve so that's giving a slight upward bias to euro against dollar and obviously that is bleeding through also against the pound so I think that explains to some extent why the euro has started to gain ground a little bit I think in terms of the other currency pairs because I think Christine Lagarde is going to find it much more difficult to draw consensus on future monetary policy decisions going forward if the vaccination program continues to get rolled out particularly across Germany and France and the rest of Europe and essentially the consensus could start to fracture as we head into the end of Q2 and the beginning of Q3 but as they say you know week is a long time in politics is an even shorter time in financial markets anyway moving swiftly on still think euro sterling big level 87 30 keep an eye on that but overall my buyer still remains for a stronger pound weaker euro which brings me on to the data that we've got out over the course of the next few days so we've got UK unemployment for February on the 20th of April we've also got the jobless claims numbers now obviously I think what's less important about the unemployment numbers is the fact that they are very much a lagging indicator certainly I think while the furlough is still in place there is a certain element of disguising the true level of unemployment but I think what is encouraging is that business optimism at its highest level for 13 years and vacancies are starting to rise as well so while unemployment may go a little bit higher over the course of the next few months expectations are that it will actually peak at a much lower level so the ILO measure of unemployment is expected to see a modest tick down in February to or sort of saw a tick down in January to 5% slipping back from 5.1% in December it's likely to stay around those sorts of levels in the February numbers what was more surprising was that we saw a big rise in jobless claims from 7.2% to 7.5 so it'd be interesting to see in terms of the March jobless claims as to whether or not we start to see them slip back given the fact that we're starting to see vacancies start to rise again we still can't disguise the reality there are 700 thousand fewer jobs in the UK economy since this time last year obviously most of those losses are in the hospitality sector and in the under age 25 cohort so you know I think I think these these could be a key indicator as to whether or not we're starting to see early signs of a peak in the monthly jobless claims numbers and whether or not we start to see them come down we've also got UK retail sales for March we're not likely to see the type of retail sales gains that we saw in the US far from it because ultimately there haven't been any stimulus checks sitting doormats here in the UK and the UK economy was still locked down in March as well so we saw a big slide in UK retail sales in January of 8.2% in February this saw a modest reversal of 2.1% as people took advantage of garden centers and DIY centers still being open 16% rise in household goods helped offset a 50% decline in clothing sales I think anyone expecting a big jump in March could well be disappointed but we could still see some fairly decent activity in DIY and garden centers as people look to the planting season when it comes to looking ahead for the spring and certainly I think in terms of the UK GDP numbers we have seen a much shallower contraction in January and February than was originally feared so I certainly think in terms of how the UK consumer is feeling I think there is a growing sense of optimism as we head towards a further unlocking of the economy not only here in April but also in May when indoor hospitality starts to reopen as well public sector borrowing yeah well less said about that the better but I think what we can say is it's likely to come in at a record level another 19.1 billion pounds was added to the national debt in February and net borrowing rose to 278 billion year to date with this week's March number expected to see borrowing get close to an even probably push above 300 billion pounds now this needs to be put in perspective it's still lower than was originally forecast a few months ago and has been helped by a number of businesses returning their furlough money and business rates money as they successfully adapted their business models to a much more online operation so you know I think it really depends on whether you're a glass half full or a glass half empty person personally I think given where we are at the moment I'm probably more glass half full and and as such given the fact that everyone pretty much everyone is in the same boat I think whatever the public sector borrowing numbers are at the moment UK guilt yields are still around about 0.73% so it's eminently serviceable even if it is eye-wateringly high as I say we are not alone in that regard and we've also got flash PMIs for April coming out for the UK economy and they're likely to be good fairly positive as well given the fact that we saw a big jump in UK services PMI in March as companies started to restock ahead of the reopening in April so hopefully now that we've seen a partial reopening of the economy in April that trend will continue so brings me on to sterling dollar pound dollar cable whatever you want to call it still big support 1.3670 that's the key line in the sand the further cable losses for me on the upside we're struggling to get much above 1.3820 1.3830 if you want to keep abreast of my updates on that you can find them in the chart forum right there they can be seen here so I put an update here we've seen four days of gains this week I think the thing that worries me a little bit about this is the lack of really an impulsive rebound off those 1.3670 lows but whilst 1.3670 holds I still think that ultimately the pound should break higher so that's the key line in the sand for me with respect to cable 1.3670 we can talk about euro dollar as well we've seen a decent rebound in that and it does look as if we could well be about to start heading higher so the big question then becomes if euro dollar goes higher does it take cable with it or does it push euro or does it take euro sterling higher now it is looking very overbought but at the moment I'm choosing to disregard that because ultimately it clouds my thinking it's a question of what's the price doing so the next resistance level is here it's currently where we are at the moment it's around about 1.1980 1.20 if we can hold below that we should start to roll back over but if we're able to push above 1.20 and it's quite likely stop losses will get triggered and we will push higher so it's really about mechanics it's about how if you're looking to short euro dollar where do you put your stop loss where would you put it you put it just above 1.20 and if 1.20 goes bid it will go 10.20 then we'll probably like we'll probably see a row of stops taken out we'll probably head back to around about 1.20 and a half but while we're below 1.20 then the likelihood is we'll drift back down to rules around about 1.1980 1.20.20 so it's really about levels trading levels when you're trading currencies if you forget that lesson for any minute you're likely to get burnt pick your levels and trade the levels accordingly okay so as I say UK retail sales 23rd public sector borrowing 23rd UK ILO unemployment jobless claims 20th of April ECB rate meeting on the 22nd of December how does Madame Lagarde basically bring together the divergent views of what the ECB can and can't do over the course of the of the next few months certainly PEP will be front and centre and ultimately how do they see the outlook for the eurozone economy I would imagine that it'll be a copy and paste from the last meeting but who knows moving on it's also set to be a big week for company earnings we've already seen US bank earnings this week they've been by and large extremely positive as loan loss reserves get basically rotated back onto the bank's balance sheets and thus helping to boost profits but nonetheless we've seen some really decent numbers over the course of the past few months one other question that I was asked as a result of one of these videos was could I do some could I cover some more exotic currencies I will I will try and do that if time permits but ultimately I think one thing about these particular videos is that they preview what's topical in the week ahead and say something like sterling mexican or dollar or dollar south african rand is probably not that topical but what I can do is I can update the chart forums for those currency pairs and that's what I've done with sterling mechs and dollar south african rand they're in the chart forums you can find the chart forums in the news and analysis section there you display it there and it displays it here so sterling mechs for example I put some chart analysis in there you just click on that button there and then it displays it there and the analysis is displayed in the left hand column there so the chart forums is a great vehicle for essentially posting analysis of a particular market and essentially inviting feedback if you want it from other like-minded traders okay so moving on we've got company earnings from the likes of associated British foods johnson and johnson taylor wimpy and netflix so i'm going to start with netflix given the fact that we are potentially coming out of lockdown and netflix is starting to find competition heating up from the likes of amazon prime disney and apple and they those those those companies will be reporting in the week beginning the 26th of april but in particular netflix i'm particularly interested in netflix because it's the market leader now at the end of last year netflix managed to show it's fending off the challenges from the likes of disney plus apple tv and amazon prime by reporting 8.51 million new subscribers on posting revenues of 6.64 billion dollars in its final q4 numbers now this is key because it also projected that subscribe subscriber numbers in this first quarter would rise by six million with profits expected to come in around about three dollars a share now despite the challenges being posed across the entire sector next netflix has still been able to increase its prices which means the big question given the fact that it's increased its prices in this quarter is will it be able to um sustain the subscriber growth that has been that we saw that we've been seeing over the course of the last 12 months that will be the big test currently netflix subscribers are now north of 200 million 203.7 now the american market is saturated there's not much growth potential there but certainly international markets it's continuing to grow market share the company is also saying it's looking to target an operating margin of 20 as well as being cash flow positive by the end of this year now that's highly ambitious but these numbers will give us a decent indication as to whether or not netflix is it's only work on its way to achieve to achieving that goal downside risk as we look ahead to q2 are likely to be a slow down in subscriber growth as economies come out of their winter lockdowns and we start to go outdoors more and cinemas start to reopen i think that's the big problem so i think we could well start to see netflix management start to become a little bit more circumspect about their growth numbers as we look ahead to the rest of this year so that could mean that the share price that we've seen which has been pretty boring over the course of the last six months will continue to trade sideways albeit with a slightly negative bias towards the downside now i'm going to talk about johnson and johnson why because johnson and johnson has hit the news recently because of its jansen jab it's a one-shot covid jab it's and it's you know fundamentally different from every other vaccination shot out there which are two jabs this is a one jab shot but like astrazeneca it's an adenovirus and there are concerns about blood clots so it'll be interesting to hear what johnson and johnson have to say about that when they announced their first quarter numbers on the 20th of april the company's opt is optimistic about its fiscal year forecasting revenues are expected to rise to around about 82 and a half billion to over 90 and a half billion dollars for the new fiscal year so obviously divide that by four give you a decent indication of where they expect quarterly revenues to come in and first quarter profits are expected to come in around about two dollars a share but certainly in the context of where we are at the moment we're in a nice little uptrend be interested to see whether or not they're able to shrug off the concerns and get approval from us regulators and european regulators for their single shot jab that's johnson and johnson we've also got taylor wimpy the taylor wimpy has been a bit of a strange one when it comes to the recovery in the housing market we are still well below the peaks in house building shares that we were a year ago and that's not surprising simply simply by virtue of the fact that completions have been lower which is not surprising because the construction sector did briefly close over the course of one month between march and april of last year while they adapted their working practices to be more covid friendly operating costs have gone up taylor wimpy's margins almost halved from 18 19 percent to around about 10 percent in their last annualized numbers this first quarter trading update should give us an indication as to whether or not they've been able to start to widen those margins out again they are looking to restore those operating margins back to around about 18 by the end of this year with a view to getting them up to 21 or 22 by 23 24 certainly we've broken towards the upside the housing market still looks fairly strong and the stamp duty holiday has been extended so there are significant tailwinds with respect to taylor wimpy we've also got prime orchestra associated bridge foods their stores are starting to reopen so that will be a significant boost to associated bridge foods there are other business areas have actually done quite well grocery sugar and agriculture have all been ahead of expectations closed retailers has been a little bit of a drag with loss of sales around around around about 1.1 billion pounds so they will be hoping for a significant rebound there so and that brings to an end i think this uh this preview of the week ahead as you can see quite a lot to get through but nonetheless plenty to talk about so keep an eye keep an eye on bond yields over the course of the next few days if we continue to if we continue to move lower then that's obviously going to be fairly positive in terms of inflation risk of inflation expectations and obviously keep an eye out for any other potential sterling weakness as well given the fact that we've come off the back of some significant declines over the course of the past few days so that's it for this week thank you very much for listening this is michael houston talking to you from cmc markets have a great weekend


Hey guys, I'm not a quick book expert. I'm just going to show you how I set up my Amazon accounts in US and Canada So for the US, I will go quickly. I set up as a bank and You might wonder why the balance total is zero So that's because of here how I set it up. So I set up as a bank then I go to I go through the statement transaction statements where you can go to sell a central go to Go to report and Transaction report. So for example, I set up the date exactly as the At the transaction date. So for example, for example, those the charges on the 19th you got a promotion sales and then and Then after this statement When the Amazon deposit money, I go to a transfer And here I transfer to my bank account. This is how I'm Amazon deposit money So the date is 21st. That's a date the charges come in so I Made a $5,000 on Amazon and then I transferred to my local bank So every time after I clear it the balance is zero. So what happened if we have a foreign account for example, Canada account with Amazon and the Amazon deposit US currency. So We do the same thing we go to orders and We are not orders. Sorry. We go to reports and the payments and we go to all statement and Then we'll just pick one For example, let's work on this one That's ended in April 11th 2017 So first thing we do is we calculated the currency transfer rate Exchange rate. So we have US dollar is 1294.91 and The Canadian dollar is 1770.47 so the exchange rate is 0.713 in the quick book you have to enable multi currency, which is under Preferences and multiple currencies and Once you enable you cannot enable it. So So you have to make a decision. So if this is a one-time deal and then after that you can set up you can set up a Bank Which is Amazon store I call Canada and you can see you can select a default currency is Canadian dollar Okay, so The problem with this is Somehow the quick book will not let you use the register anymore so what I found a way to do it is just let click on the bank and Say Mac deposits Okay, and the date will I'll set it up at the last day of the of the statement Which is April 11th 2017. So I'll do 0411 2017 and exchange rate Remember every time you come here you have to I mean every one you have to remember the exchange rate the point I'll just call it this Here, okay, and then I put all the deposits in Which is the first one is a product charge So receive from our is it about a customer This is a product charge and from account I will as I set it up to Canada income and the amount is to 2661.88 Okay, and then Look at the second line, which is other so I got the all the all the money comes in as a deposit and We did a date, right? We did the currency exchange, right? And We save on clothes and now we go back to the store we do Red checks and the date is is already filled at 411 and I do for I set it by charge all and The exchange rate 17. Yeah, that's right. So I now I start enter all the charges So But here are I Got all the expenses in and I save on clothes After enter it, you can see our balance is 1770.46 and Canadian dollars and If we open it, you can see here are the Deposits that we have and Here are the other charges we have and now we want to transfer this money to To the US Bank so we Right-click and say transfer funds and Then make sure the currency exchange rate is right and The first thing you do is I automatically selected from account and then you have to set this account to be a Canadian dollar and Then you can pick the second count second count will be the US Bank and It's in US dollar and Here you're typing exactly how much US dollar come in. So it's one two nine and they save a close And now you can see our Canadian store is off by one cent and There there will be like a one cent or two cents for From transfer. Okay. I hope this hope you found this useful and this is how I do it