In this video, we're going to talk about the mean value theorem. And so when we say the mean value theorem, we don't mean that it's a grouch. In this situation, mean means an average, so like mean, median mode. So it's the average value theorem. That's how you should interpret this because the mean value theorem is going to make a connection between the average rate of change with the instantaneous rate of change, the instantaneous rate of change of a function being its derivative, of course. The value theorem tells us the following. If f is a function that satisfies two conditions, first, f is continuous on the closed interval a to b. And two, f is differentiable on the open interval a to b. Of course, the difference between an open interval and a closed interval is the closed interval includes the endpoints x equals a and x equals b. The open interval does not include the endpoints there. Now, of course, if a function's differentiable, that implies continuous. Continuity is a weaker condition than differentiability. But we only require differentiability between an endpoints a and b. We are okay with the weaker assumption of continuity. Now, if these assumptions look familiar at all, it's probably because we saw in the last video about Roll's theorem that this sounds a lot like the assumptions for Roll's theorem. The Roll's theorem actually has three assumptions, one, two, and three. The first two are IBC right here. The third condition for Roll's theorem, the third assumption, I should say, is that f of a equals f of b. And this is the main difference between the mean value theorem and Roll's theorem. That in the mean value theorem, we don't require that f of a equals b. But we'll see in a moment that under the right assumptions, we can view Roll's theorem as a special case theorem. The Roll's theorem is a consequence of the mean value theorem if we set x, if we have f of a equals f of b, which we don't require that. So these, again, are assumptions. If f is continuous on the interval a to b closed and chibble on the interval a to b open, then there exists some number c that sits between a and b, such that the derivative f prime of c is equal to f of b minus f of a over b minus a. I want to write this equation very slightly different. What this is telling us is that dy over dx, the derivative is equal to delta y over delta x at this value here, where of course the average rate of change is the rate of change on the interval a to b and the derivative is evaluated at x equals c. So the mean value theorem tells you in a nutshell that with some appropriate assumptions about continuity and differentiability, somewhere the function, this function's instantaneous rate of change will equal its average rate for which I want to show you this diagram that I drew all over to give you some appreciation what's going on here. So our function f is going like this. So it's a continuous, differentiable function like so. If we consider the average rate of change, that's this friend right here, delta y over delta x. The average rate of change is the slope of the secant line. So if we take the line that connects the point a comma f of a with b comma f of b, if we connect those two dots, because two dots, two points form a line, those two dots we get are so-called secant line. The slope of the secant line is the average rate of change delta y over delta x. On the other hand, if we consider a tangent line, so right here we have an example of a tangent line, tangent line where the slope of the tangent line is equal to the derivative dy over dx. We are saying that our function will have some place where the tangent line is parallel to the secant line. The secant line is fairly one secant line in consideration here. And although we're guaranteed the existence of some points, its location, we have no information about it, except it's somewhere between a and b. But somewhere, the tangent line has to be parallel to the secant line. That's what the mean value guarantees here. And that's why we call it the mean value theorem here. We're saying that the average value, the average rate of change is somewhere equal to the instantaneous rate of change. Now, if you take this equation here, f prime of c is equal to f of b minus f of a over b minus a. If you clear the denominators times both sides by b minus a, well, then this side it clears out and you get this equation right here. It's an immediate consequence and sometimes it's a useful UV error. Now, before we prove the mean value theorem, I do wanna make sort of a statement about it. Again, try to give sort of like a physical interpretation. We've seen sort of a geometric interpretation already with tangent lines and secant lines here. So think of the following. Imagine you're driving your car down a highway or the interstate and some location in the United States or wherever you're located, it doesn't really matter. And so let's say that you're driving on the highway, the speed limit, let's say is 70 miles per hour, right? So if you're driving faster than seven miles per hour, then the local highway patrol police officers could give you a ticket for speeding. That's a very common law, at least in the United States. In which case, if you're caught speeding, they'll give you a ticket. Well, if you're on a highway and there's like just flat planes, then it's pretty easy to see things far down the road. So it's not really possible for the highway patrol officers to hide because everything's just so flat, nothing to hide behind. As you're driving, you could see them, over a mile away down the road. In which case, if you're speeding like 100 miles per hour or 120 miles per hour or something, then you're gonna slow down before you hit the officer.  And then you continue on. Well, let's say that five miles down the road, there's another police officer. You're like, what are you doing? I can totally see you. The last one didn't work. Why are you gonna think that this one's gonna work as well? Whatever. In which case, you slow down again so that your speed limits again are 70 miles per hour. And then when you pass the police officer, this one pulls you over and gives you a ticket. I have a secret for you. Law enforcement officers work together. The reason there's two is because they're timing you, right? If there's two officers that are five miles apart, think about that for a second. If the officers are five miles apart and you drive between one officer to the other one, it only takes you three minutes to get from the first one to the second one, that gives you an average rate of change, an average velocity of 100 miles per hour. I switched from minutes to hours here, but you can do the arithmetic. If you do five miles in three minutes, then your average miles per hour by the mean value theorem, that tells you that if your average speed is 100 miles per hour, at least at one moment in time, your instantaneous speed, the speed on your odometer was equal to 100 miles per hour. So even though they didn't see you speeding, the only way you can get from one point to the other so quickly is that you must have been speeding. In which case your argument is to refute the assumptions of the mean value theorem, which would have to mean that, oh, my motion function wasn't continued. I was driving down the road and some wormhole appeared and then I teleported to the other side. That's how I got here so fast, officer. So by all means, you could try to make some spatial anomaly as your argument, but this basically cause your average speed is above the speed limit. That means your instantaneous speed must have also been above the speed limit. It's a nice little trick for the police officers there. The best way to avoid it is to, well, either drive through a wormhole or just not speed, all right? Let's talk about why the mean value theorem is true. We kind of have as a physical interpretation of it now. The mean value theorem is really an immediate consequence of Roll's theorem, which we had talked about in a previous video. I actually wanna put this picture back on the screen. So let's say that the average rate of change is just M, M as if it's the slope of the secant line. And let's actually let G of X be that secant line. So let G of X equal M times X minus A plus F of A. So this is the, so G of X is actually the secant line that passes through X equals A and X equals B for our function F right here. Make that clear. And let's consider the difference between F and G. So we have a new function H of X, which equals F of X minus G of X. Now notice that F of X by assumption is a continuous function from A to B. Great. G of X will likewise be a continuous function from A to B because it's a line. Lines are continuous. Functions of continuous functions are continuous. This implies that the function H of X will be continuous from A to B. A similar argument can be made about differentiability. So F by assumption is differentiable on the interval A to B. G of X is differentiable on A to B because it's a line. And therefore the difference of differentiable functions is differentiable. So we get that H will likewise be differentiable on the interval A to B. And in fact, we can compute the derivative of H. The derivative of H, since it's the difference, if we calculate H prime of X, this is just gonna be F prime of X minus G prime of X. But as G is a line, its derivative will just be its slope, which is M. So the derivative of H is equal to F prime minus H. The average rate of change right there. And so let's evaluate this derivative at the, excuse me, let's try to evaluate the function at the values A and B, the end points here. So if we plug in A into the function H, you're gonna get F of A minus, that looks like a G, doesn't it? F of A minus G of A right here, which G of A, as the secant line that passes through A comma F of A and B comma F of B, we get that G of A is just F of A. So we get F of A minus F of A, which is of course is equal to zero. Likewise, if you take H of B, same thing's gonna happen. You're gonna get F of B minus G of B, but G of B is just B, excuse me, G of B is just F of B, and so it's gonna be zero. You can see the exact calculation there if you want to, but the point of using the secant line is that H of B is also gonna equal zero. So notice H of A is equal to zero, H of B is equal to zero, in particular, H of A equals H of B. We created this function H so that A and B, X intercepts of that function. So notice that H, well, we have these three conditions here, right? H is continuous on the closed interval, it's differentiable on the open interval, and H of A equals H of B. So it satisfies the assumptions of Roll's theorem. So Roll's theorem applies and says that H prime of C is equal to zero for some value C that sits in between A and B. So this here just means that C but sits in between A and B, like so. But remember, the derivative of H is just the difference of the derivative of F and G, where the derivative of G is just M. So if H prime of C equals F prime of C minus H, then we can just add M to both sides, and we get that F prime of C equals M, where remember, M was this arbitrary change, F of B minus F of A over B minus A. So it might seem convoluted, in some degree, it's not the mean value theorem. It generalizes Roll's theorem, but in terms of the proof, we actually can prove the mean value theorem from Roll's theorem. So the special case of Roll's theorem, which we proved in the previous video, there. Let me give you an example of what the mean value theorem is kind of measuring here. Let F of X equal X cubed minus, which you can see drawn on yellow here on the screen. Here's our function F. And let's take the value A equals zero and B equals two. So noticing where this is on the function, you have zero zero, which is on the function. You also have X equals two. The point would be here on the graph. So we get zero zero. And this point right here, you're gonna get two comma, you just put it in the function, you'll get eight minus two, which is six. So two comma six. These are the points we're gonna consider right here. So our function F is a polynomial. So polynomials are continuous. So F here is going to be continuous on the interval zero two, and that's because polynomials are continuous everywhere. And likewise, since it's polynomial, it's also differentiable. It's differentiable on the interval zero to two. So what this shows us here is that the mean value theorem applies, it applies to F on this interval zero to two. So what the mean value theorem tells us is there exists some letters C. So this backwards E is just shorthand for exist. I'll write it out here. So there is a C. Such that, well, what do we know about C? We know that C sits somewhere between zero and two. And we know that, what else do we know about C? We know that F of two minus F of zero is equal to C prime, F prime at C, excuse me, times by two minus zero. So I'm just applying the mean value theorem right here. Which F of two, we saw was six, F of zero is zero, F prime at C right here.  So I'm gonna put the two in front, two minus zero is two. So we get this, or in other words, we get that the derivative at C is equal to six over two, aka three. All right, so there's some point where the derivative is equal to the instantaneous rate of change. So the mean value theorem guarantees that somewhere the derivative is equal to three. Which we can actually calculate the derivative easy enough. Right, the derivative here, just by the usual power rule, we're gonna get three X squared minus one. Is this ever equal to three? Well, let's see, we can add one to both sides. And we end up with three X squared is equal to four. Divide both sides by three. We get X squared is equal to four over three. Take the square root, we're gonna get the X equals two over the square root of three. We took the square root, there's actually two of them, plus or minus two over three. Now notice we're looking for a point that's between zero and two. Negative two over the square root of three is negative, so that definitely is not larger than zero. So we are safe in assuming it was positive. And so this is the number we're looking for right here. Number, and then when we found this number, we see that the C value is in fact equal to two, two over the square root of three. Now the mean value theorem wasn't necessary to find this number, because I mean, I found it just by solving this. The value theorem does is it guaranteed the existence of such this number. Now with this example, it might seem a little bit eh, right? Why does it matter? I mean, because we can see with our picture right here that the secant line from zero, zero to two, six is this line right here. And you have this tangent line, this tangent line where the point of tangency would be about right here. This is when C equals two over the square root of three. So the mean value theorem guarantees that there's some tangent line, in fact, there's only one, two over the square root of three that's parallel to the secant line. But the mean value theorem doesn't tell you where it is, it just guarantees the existence of algebraically where that point was. So why do we need the mean value theorem if we can solve for it? Well, the kicker is that there are many situations we can't solve for it, but the guaranteed existence of said tangent line is still pretty critical. We'll see that a little bit later in this. For many students as you work through the homework, often time what the homework questions ask you to do is to say, figure out what point, what is guaranteed by the mean value theorem and then actually find that point. It's not the best example of the mean value theorem, we're gonna see later in this lecture, the next few videos in fact, why the mean value theorem is so important, at least we'll begin to see it.


We were looking at a lesson with young children grade two students thinking about growth and change in animals, and we began by asking them, why do we have zoos? But instead of just brainstorming, I presented, you know, here are four reasons we might have zoos, and the children were invited to rank those from the best reason to the fourth best reason. So now they have to make, so notice as soon as I give a list, I can turn into a thinking question by inviting you to pick from or rank my list. So the children were invited, do we have zoos to bring people to visit our city, to study animals, to observe animals, to protect animals, and they talked about which is the best reason, which is the fourth best reason. So that's a way that we started the lesson, and then we invited the children, if you were to create an enclosure for an animal, what would you do? They give us some ideas, well what if we thought about this, now what changes would you make? So we put the task, the challenge up front, and then as the children learn new content, they continually get to revisit and rethink their ideas, their responses to that. Another example, at a grade seven level, looking at Akkadian deportation, inviting students to think about, you know, were the British just in the way they treated the Akkadians, and in a critical thinking lesson, rather than saying, well here's all things that happened, we played the song from the band called Akkadian Driftwood and invited the students to say, well what can you learn from that song about who the Akkadians were, about what the British might have done, and they have to draw out the evidence, and then begin exploring, but why might the British have done that, would that be a legitimate reason? So notice there's a reversal there, instead of me saying, here's a reading to do, or here's me telling you what happened, we use a song, digging into pop culture even for students to decode that, to dissect that, and then begin to respond. So the invitation to think is up front, and the kids are engaged always in building that background.


How are you today? We are going to, okay this month's design team prompt is to do a journal page. So I am going to create a journal page here in my little delusions journal with a few bits and pieces and scraps I have laying around along with some collage papers I've made using my new stencils, particularly I think I'm going to use this one with the orange slices. Although I do have, and this is with the melted metal paste we've been talking about at Nauseam, I know, you're probably sick of hearing about it by now, but I just love it. But I have the orange slices, of course I've got the gold arrows, I've got this face and some turquoise arrows, I've got the pink feathers, but I think I want to use the orange slices, so I think we're going to use those. I've got a watercolor doodled feather that I did a long time ago on a piece of old book text. This is something stamped in black paint with a homemade stamp of mine. I've got some scraps of sheet music, a little scrap of brightly colored junk mail, some scraps of corrugated cardboard, and a quote from my quote box that I like. So I'm going to speed forward through the process and I'll be right back. Okay the guys, there you have it. I want you to remember one thing that's really important. Your art journal pages don't have to be complicated. I didn't barely any painting on this. This art journal page was already covered in paint from just wiping off my paint brushes. Just have fun with the process. Do what you love and enjoy it. That's all that matters. If you would like a copy of this orange stencil that I made these from, which is this one, or the feathers, or the girl, or the arrows, a set of my stamps are a copy of my book. I did write a book if I'm not sure if you know that, or any one of a number of other things that are in my Etsy shop. The link for that is in the description below, along with the link to my two Facebook groups, my address for Happy Mail, my email address, all of that stuff, so check out the description. One of the other design team members journal pages, their links to their videos are in the description. They've all done a great job, so I want you to go check them out and show them some love if you can. That would be great. The most important thing is to go out and have a great day. Do something nice for yourself because you deserve it, and I'll see you later. Bye, guys.


SAG. Oh, why? What happened? So I was on the nominating committee for film this year. Uh-huh. Got all the movies, and then some. Made my selection, so I've seen everything before the rest of the SAG members have. I was sent copies of the exact same films again.  I'm Rick. Can you put that in the screen? She's got a contact! Yep. Early in the morning. It's a great way to wake up. Right when I wake up. Today we've got a new teaser. I dropped a Mamouti film. Eh? Uh, just dropped eight hours ago. At least from one hour. Sweet. We are watching it. Uh, it's called... It's just called Bishma Parvam. With Mamouti. And Anolidad. And then see Chandran. And it's Sushin Shyam. Forgive mispronunciations if they're already. Um, that is all I know. That's a Mamouti teaser. All right. Uh, let's get into what should be the next Mamouti film. We should watch, by the way. Let us know that right now. Or I will murder you. Here we go. Do you achieve it? Yeah, achieve the goal there of... I loved the teaser. I thought the cinematography was great. I thought that little fight scene they showed was great. He looked awesome. Yup. And badass. And the music was badass. The music was awesome. Yeah. Nice. Great trailer. Or a teaser, actually. I don't know what it's about outside of it. It kind of looks almost gangster-ish, right? Mm-hmm. Yeah. That's a very common theme. Yeah. When did that... It's a great theme. Obviously, I mean, it's not a new theme for any one, I guess. But it feels like India puts out a lot of gangster dramas. They do. Um... Has that always been a thing? Or has... Is it like a newer genre that they're just obsessed with? Yeah. I bet... Has there been an increase, like, is the line of demarcation, gangs of wasp-er, in terms of the increase? Because if it's existed, the gang genre become more prevalent after gangs? Is that an assumption I'm making? Godfather. Godfather, right? Yeah, it became huge. Yeah, that whole genre. And it still is. You could arguably say in the realm...  There were gangster films, and stories about Al Capone and things like that. But it really became commercially successful and cinematically replicated after Godfather. Yeah. Here in America. Along with, like, sci-fi after Star Wars. Exactly. Yeah, it's just... That's the way it works. And I would like to know how long... Could be very off. I mean, there could be one particular industry in particular that's been doing it forever, you know? But I would like to know, because it is a common... I love it. I love gangster films.  So he's a former gangster who maybe is, like, trying to make his life clean and they just keep pulling me back in. Awesome. He directed a FaFa film that we haven't seen, called... What are you doing? Uh... I've been the Push the Come from 2014. And is this... Same director. Is this Mali Alam? I think it is, right? Mammoody is known for... I... Oh, Supins in it! Oh! Was he in the trailer? I... Probably him and Vijay Raaz. Farhan Facil. Any relation? Ah, interesting. You're finding interesting things, Corbin Maaz! Was he in there? I feel like he wasn't. I feel like I did not see Supin. I didn't... Me too. Maybe he was in the fight scene and just... Was he... The cinematography. I'm going through the scene here. The cinematography is fantastic. And lighting. Um... It's absolutely phenomenal. Very cinematic. Yep. Really nice. No. He looks awesome, though. He's probably a legendary actor. Anywho. Good teaser. When's this come out though? I didn't see a release date, did you? No. No. Yeah! Nice teaser! Um... It's cool that Supin's in it as well. Um... And so... I do... So that leads me to... I didn't... It's not on my list or anything. I just knew it dropped and so I... I reacted to it. I think it's Malayalam. You guys can let us know if that's correct or not. And that... This kind of writing usually... Leads me to... Yeah, me too. That it's Malayalam. Um... Megastar... No? Okay. But anyways, you guys can let us know. And what else we need to know about this? We need to be the next Mamouti film and the next Malayalam film that we should watch. Let us know. Down below. Just...


Shantae fans rejoice. The half-juni hero has officially been added to the Super Smash Bros. Ultimate roster. Sort of. As has become tradition in providing the internet with details of the latest DLC fighter, Kazuya from Tekken, Masahiro Sakurai announced a batch of Me Fighter costumes, including a special skin for Shantae. While she was previously included in the game as a spirit, she's now playable in her own right. In the presentation Sakurai noted just how much fan demand there is for Shantae in Smash, so it's not surprising that she was included as a Me costume. Indeed, the developers at Way Forward have been asked over and over and over about whether she'd ever get to be included in the game in a more substantial role. Said Shantae co-creator Matt Boson, We love the enthusiasm! It was incredible to have her included as a spirit, and I know that it meant a lot to Shantae fans. If she ever becomes playable in Smash, it would be neat to see how hair-whipping, dancing or transformations could play a part in her moveset. Boson went on to explain that, when Shantae was included as a spirit within Smash, the team at Way Forward didn't even understand what they were signing up for. Nintendo asked for art assets and Way Forward sent them over. They had no idea what would be done with them. He said, We've been working with Nintendo for something like 25 years, and they know that we're die-hard fans. In this case, we just sent over some artwork to be used at their discretion. On the off chance, they could include her in some way. We didn't know she'd be a spirit, or even what a spirit was. We were shocked to see Shantae show up during a Smash Direct. It was awesome. Before that moment, we didn't know any details. In cases like that, RMO is to zip it and wait. In another interview, Boson said, I think it's fair to say that being invited to Super Smash Bros. is the highest honour a game character can receive. So we're very humbled to have seen Shantae included as a spirit when Ultimate launched on Switch. That was a huge honour. Having her as a Mii costume, assist trophy, or a full-blown fighter now or in a future Smash Bros. game would be a dream come true. And I know that it would make a lot of fans very happy as well. For now, I'm just so happy that she was able to be included. Some fans who had been hoping to see Shantae as a full-blown character in her own right are, of course, disappointed that she's only included as a costume for Mii characters. Over the years, there's been plenty of speculation about how Shantae would control as an actual fighter within the game, and Matt Boson has been eager to fan those particular flames. He described Shantae's ideal moveset thusly. I'm really excited about Shantae being a possibility for Smash. How cool would that be? Amazing, right? I think stylistically, she'd be a good fit, being something that exists somewhere between Mega Man and Peach. I'd hope she could recover in happy form, or maybe pull off some incredible dance and transformation for her final Smash. I would love to see this happen. And if not now, then sometime in the future. While it seems there wasn't a space in Nintendo's planned roster of new characters for the fighter's past volume 2, the team at Sora Limited did their best to appease fans by instead making Shantae a Mii costume. According to Boson, Shantae's recognition in Smash is purely the result of the amazing fan support that the series has seen over the years. He said, Shantae fans are awesome. They have this increasing demand that keeps us constantly moving. Honestly, we've been so busy that we sometimes forget that she's having these milestone moments. If fans keep commenting, streaming, posting fan art, Shantae will keep growing and will never get a chance to slow down. And that would be amazing. So if you're a Shantae fan and you're wondering why Shantae was included as a Mii costume in Smash, then it was all down to you. And with this much love for Shantae in Smash, who knows what the future will hold? The moral of the story? Embrace the things you love. And you never know. Others might well do the same.


Some drivers, why don't they make space for heavy vehicles? They're just not cautious enough Pritchow and caution is the key


So, on the map is the Marine Corps Marshals Program. It was developed in 1999. We also did other training, which was line training and close combat training before, back in the day. But Marine Corps Marshals Program now is a more developed, more war-fighting program. Kind of mixed in with a lot of ground fighting, standing strike, and also with weapons and everything like that. Well, crews actually love doing this. It's really new to them. They've never really done fighting anything before the Marine Corps adjoining, unless they grew up doing karate or Taekwondo or something like that. So a lot of this stuff is brand new to the crews, whether it's stand-up or doing takedowns or working with weapons. So every time I have a class, they're actually really excited to do it. Something new to them, especially when they start taking each other down or using the weapons, learning stuff that Marines do on a day-to-day basis. So they actually love doing it. The word ethos also we also go by the three disciplines that we go by, physical, character, and mental. That physical, obviously, being physically able to do anything and overcome that physical barrier, not just about being strong, but just having that work to do something. Now, obviously, we've got the mental. You can't really do anything without having that mental capacity of this overcoming obstacles and anything like that. And that's what we really strive for and make math. And also the character. It's not just about being physically or mentally fit, but also having that character.  Marines as a whole, we have a warrior mindset and make math is used to embody that. Just because you're not on the front line doesn't mean that you don't get to participate in that warrior spirit. So don't mind any weapon just because we're out around so the fight's not over yet. So we have to teach them the basics before they can start to actually engage in hand-to-hand combat. Because somewhere along the line, they're probably going to have to do something. So the physical aspect is easy.  Crunches, you can do crunches to get better. But it takes a little bit more time to get mentally strong and to get past mental fatigue. So telling your body that you can go, even when your body's telling you that you can't go, that's something that has to be trained and that doesn't just happen overnight. So it has to be constantly trained in order for your mind to catch up with your body.


And please, Javier, come up and join us here. Trade was very well introduced here by Linus, an important factor that can link the A-Lease priorities to the sustainability outcomes. And what role could trade there for play to catalyze sustainability? Or is it such a role to play for trade at all? Thank you. I guess we all agree in the room that policies to promote sustainability have to take into account teleconnections, which is the fact that policies and interventions in one side of the world, in one country... You hear. Well, should we ask Javier to speak a bit closer to the microphone? Here. Good. So I was talking about teleconnections. Now closer to the microphone. So teleconnections are referring to the fact that policies and interventions in one side of the world or in one sector have enormous implications for sustainability in other parts of the world and in other sectors. And probably the most important teleconnection that we can think of is trade. Trade is underlying all the global economic system, and it's like the blood and the catalyzer of all this global economy that we are living in. And one of the problems for policymakers and researchers in terms of dealing with the trade system is that this is very complex. It's a web of a lot of stakeholders with very different interests and different capabilities, policies implemented, and it's very difficult to look at the causality and the relationship between all these stakeholders and the benefits and the impacts that trade is causing. So at SCI, we are working in mapping these supply chains and these trade relationships all around the world. Wow, that's a nice picture. With the idea that just by providing with transparency in these supply chain systems that we have in the world, we can actually engage with the different stakeholders and we can look at the trade-offs and inform or help policymakers to take hard choices. So for example, this is about the supply chain of soybeans from Brazil and it's depicting, well, this is a simplification of the supply chain. Believe me, this is like thousands of producers on the left that we are grouping by regions in Brazil, thousands of exporters, importers, carriers, shipping brokers, dealers of this commodity, and finally the countries of consumption. So what we are trying to do is to understand all these impacts and all these relationships so we can engage with these people along the whole supply chain and see how to improve the sustainability of the trade system. A more simplified version of this is actually the next slide which is just showing the relationship between the producer of soy in Brazil and the country of consumption. So up there you have the places, concrete places where China is consuming soy from in Brazil for different years and the same for the European Union. So by looking at all these small circles, what is going on in those places, I can actually start talking about not only transparency but accountability which stakeholders are actually driving the processes that can be seen in those places. But after that, I think the most important message of this short presentation is that even if all these stakeholders have different policies that are often not driven like Kalle said by environmental concerns for example, there's actually the option of harnessing already existing policies for improving the sustainability along these supply chains. And I can provide with one example. Most part of the companies in the world dealing with farming commodities have signed these zero deforestation commitments last year in New York. So they are saying that by 2020 they will stop deforestation in their supply chains. Obviously these companies are not doing this mostly for environmental reasons. They are doing it because they want to secure their supply chains. And they are fearing seen by consumers and other stakeholders like risk or talking about corporate responsibility here. However, these commitments are going to change completely the supply chains of hundreds of commodities. They are going to change how farmers are producing, how consumers are buying. If this commitment is really going to happen it's going to change completely the trade system. So this is like when Unilever is saying they source everything sustainably, palm oil for example. It's because the globe is not big enough otherwise for them to supply. To survive, yeah. And there we have options to actually think in other agendas, policy agendas and use their commitment to actually drive positive impacts for sustainability along the supply chains. Can I? Yeah. I was reminded of what Kate Minderhoed from Solidarity said the other week when she was visiting us. She said sustainability is something that needs to happen in a place. And she was then referring to that with all these supply chain approaches there are limitations to what they can actually achieve in terms of livelihood options and so on for the local community. So considering that most of the world agriculture production is not internationally traded with this input from Kate what would you say about the limitations and possibilities of supply chain approaches like the zero deforestation policy? I think like any policy or intervention of any of these stakeholders along the supply chain is driven by one sometimes like zero deforestation commitment or several or few goals. It can be zero carbon emissions or it can be production come from small holders but there are very few policies that are actually integral and see what is going on along the supply chain in different levels like in the local scale, national scale and global scale. So whenever an stakeholder is implementing a policy or an intervention there is an enormous risk that there is unintended consequences of that policy and we can see that with the zero deforestation commitments because it's very likely that in some cases it will be affected negatively by these zero deforestation commitments and strong focus in one dimension of the social environmental system may be detrimental to others and I think we have to take care about all these policies that are being implemented now same with certification for example. Thanks a lot Kavi, it's obviously complex although there are opportunities here to improve to use trade to green supply chains but there are potentially negative side effects of that in terms of equity and social issues. Please join us here Kavi and we invite our next participant Goyhan we know moving from Brazil and the Amazon over to China and Asia and China and we will continue to do this. Thank you for your time and for your support. Thank you for your time and for your support. Thank you for your time and for your


The Mortar Marines and Sailors, my name is Sergeant Keith, I'm an O-313. O-313 stands for Light Armor Reconnaissance Vehicle Crewman. We're mechanized infantry and as crewmen we have a driver, a gunner and a vehicle commander. My job as a gunner is tasked with employing the weapon system and destroying light armor threats, any type of aerial threats, any type of surface threats that may come in contact.


Γεια σας, είμαι Βικη, και καλώς ήρθατε back. Σήμερα έχω ένα σπίτι για εσείς, και αυτό είναι part of a blog hoop. Παρακολουθείτε να δείξετε μου στο blog, να δείξετε όλα για αυτό, γιατί υπάρχουν πολλές γευαίσεις μέσα στο σπίτι. Σήμερα θα χρησιμοποιήσω αυτή η καλή σπίτι. Αυτή είναι by AlteNew και είναι από την σπίτι της σπίτις της σπίτις της σπίτις της σπίτις. Αυτή είναι πραγματική σπίτι της σπίτις. Είμαστε Ανεμόνι στην Ελλάδα. sehr, there are a different layers to stamp your flower. There are also matching ties and as I always say at the back of your thumbset, there is a guide that you can follow, so it tells you which layer goes on top of which. But definitely, you can just stamp the outlet and color it. Now for my sentiment, I will go with this stamp set there is a big stamp set packed with sentiments and it's called Kafka friends. Είναι ένα καλύτερο τάμπι να έχετε σε πάνω, ειδικά αν δείτε πολλοί από τις καλύτερες σε your crafty friends. Λοιπόν, υπάρχουν ασκάσεις σαν χαπίκραφτας, εσείς είναι ο τέλος, εσείς είναι ο πιο κοινωνός, ασκάσεις και να κάνεις καλύτερες.  Για τα μου καλύτερες θα χρειαστούν πιο πιο πιο one flower and leaves. Εντάξει να χρησιμοποιήσω την εξογραφία μου για να κάνω η ζωή μου εύκολη. Τι πρώτα που έγινε όλα τα λεφτά και τα εξογραφία και αυτά είναι τα πράγματα. Και θα βρήξω ένα άλλο στμπ από ένα άλλο στμπ. Αυτό είναι ο καλύτερος τρασούδης και θα τα χρησιμοποιήσω για αυτή την εξογραφία εδώ που έχει μικρές λεφτά. Τα που θα χρησιμοποιήσω τώρα με την εξογραφία μου για να έχω ένα μπουκκέ. Και εντάξει να χρησιμοποιήσω την εξογραφία μου τοιχανόγραφιο από Αλτινιού και να παρατοπούξω όλα τα αισθανά. Εκεί αυτό έχω μια καλή εμηνικήυκρασία, μπορώ να αποτύσσω μου το πόνο στο άλλο στμπ. Οπότε θα κοιμηθώ με τα εξογραφία μου και θα πηγω τώρα και θα τα χρησιμοποιήσω για 2 ως τόνες αισθανά. Τώρα ξεκινήσω να ανοιγήσω τις λεφτάς για τη μεγάλη μου και για αυτό θα χρησιμοποιήσω αυτή τη στμπ. Αυτό έρχεται από τα ουαλότητα και θα χρησιμοποιήσω το μπλασσό, το ρουζ και το κρυμσό. Ξεκινήσω με μπλασσό. Είμαι κομμάτιας το πρώτο λαϊκό. Και θα δείξω ότι θα έρθω μια καλύτερη εμπρασία από το πρώτο λαϊκό που είμαι κομμάτιας. Δεν υπάρχει τίποτα ή τίποτα. Τώρα, αυτό είναι ένα πολύ λαϊκό πινκ. Και τώρα θα έρθω σε ένα νέο κόλλο. Αυτό το πρώτο λαϊκό έρχεται από τρεις διαφορετικές λαϊκές. Μπλασσόντας. Τώρα θα έρθω σε ένα νέο λαϊκό. Και τώρα θα χρησιμοποιήσω το ρουζ. Και as you can see I am doing this two times just by rotating my paper. So I am going to rotate the paper here to get the second layer on the second flower. And then I will continue with the third layer. So here I am using the darker of the colors that I have chosen, then that's crimson. I am going to stamp again the third layer and I get that beautiful shadow on my flower. Now I will repeat the same process by placing all the layers on top of my leaves. There are actually only two layers for the leaves. And I used inks from the oval sets that are called green fields. So here are all my images ready to go and you can see that I went ahead and stamped even more leaves in case I need them. And now since I have stamped that filler flower at the middle that doesn't have any layers at all I am going to use one of my alcohol markers by Altenew and I am just going to color the little leaves there. I am not going to add any color on the flowers since I like them as they are white. I am just going to add a touch of gold at the center of the flowers later on. For the animon there are two layers for the center of the flowers which I will not bother to stamp with my stamping platform. This is way easier so I am going to stamp at the center with warm sunshine. And there is one more layer stamp for the center that adds little dots around the center. On top of that those black dots. So instead of stamping with yellow which will not make a lot of difference to tell you the truth I decided to go ahead and stamp that with VersaMarking and then I am going to apply embossing powder in gold. The embossing powder that I am using is by Altenew. It's an embossing powder that has become my favorite these days. It doesn't have glitter but it has a beautiful shine and it's called antique gold.  I am going to add a dot at each one of the centers. And then the embossing powder is going to stick there. That's by wow by the way. So everything has a touch of gold at the center and everything matches beautifully. And now finally I am going to use my heat gun to melt the embossing powder. And I will use the matching dies to cut out all the images, the leaves, the flowers, everything. So here I have all the leaves and my flowers ready to go. And I have this frame that is a leftover from a previous card that I shared I think on Friday. And I have some foam tape at the back which I am going to remove the backing so that I can stick it on top of a white card base. The card base that I am using is a standard card that's 4.25 x 5.5. Now this is where I am going to put everything together. For one of the flowers I am adding a foam tape at the back while on the other I am adding some tape adhesive directly. So this way I am creating different layers on my card. Now I am going to chop off one of the sides from these flowers since I want it tucked in underneath the frame. But the other flower is going to lay just on top of it and it's going to come outside of the frame. I am using a new tape adhesive and I love that especially when I am creating things like that where I have many pieces and I don't know from the beginning where everything is going to go just because this tape adhesive is actually very forgiving. So I do apply tape adhesive at the back of all these pieces and as I am working if I need to change something I can easily peel it off but remember don't apply any pressure when you are putting all those pieces. They will stay put but you will be able to peel them out. Once you are happy with the composition then you can apply some pressure on all the pieces and they will stay there. I am going to stick the last leaves at the bottom of my card just to fill in that space there. Now I love how that gold frame matches perfectly the center of my flowers. For my sentiment I decided to go with You Inspire Me. This comes from the stamp set I showed you in the beginning that's called Crafty Friends.  On the inside of the card I decided to stamp something just because this stamp set is packed with beautiful sentiments so I just had to use one more and I went with the one that says I love everything you create, keep up the great work. So I think this is a beautiful card to send to any of your crafting friends that really inspire you. Now I rarely do something on the inside of my cards but even when I stamp something just like with this card I always like to stamp it towards the top so I have enough space underneath to write my note. I am going to stick the sentiment on top of my card and I am going to finish it off by adding some golden dots using my nouveau drops. And that was the card for today so I hope you had fun and got inspired. Don't forget that this is a part of a blog hope with lots of inspiration and tons of giveaways so make sure to visit my blog to learn all about it. Thank you all for watching and see you next time.


When you realize there's more than one narcissist Narcissists rarely work alone They're like roaches if you see one, there's usually more Although you may be unaware of them Because they will hide from you But they're actually no different to the narcissist They're insincere and deceitful They have too much interest in small and unimportant matters Which is why you need to be aware of who is in your circle You need to be aware of who is united with you and Who is just pretending? Because there's a lot of fake people in this world and when you're involved with a narcissist They will study your friends and family members To see who's not really down with you To see who's not really on your side And those are the people that they will turn into their flying monkeys But they were always envious of you They were always against you They stuck around to witness your loss of power prosperity and status Or because they thought they could get something out of you But they still want to see you lose favor They still want to see you lose your position of power and honor So that they can gossip about you and put you down and Those are the types of people that the narcissist is looking for They want to become friends with those types of people So that they can find out information which they can use against you The narcissist will use their flying monkeys to defeat you Because they may be people that you haven't identified as a potential threat You may not realize that they're already against you Which is how it's so easy for the narcissist to team up with them against you The flying monkeys will reveal your personal information to the narcissist They will tell them where you are who you're with and what you're doing Because you're giving them this information You think they're a friend or a family member You don't realize that they're an enemy as well Which is why you may wonder how the narcissist has all of this information You may wonder how they know where you are You may wonder how they know who you're with and what you're doing But it's because someone in your circle is letting them know Someone is leaking personal information about you to the narcissist someone is being fake and unfortunately There are a lot of fake people in this world People who act like they have your best interest in mind People who act like they want the best for you But they're not doing anything for you. They're just hanging around To get things from you But they wouldn't mind watching you lose your position of power and honor Because they don't like you anyway They're just using you Which is why they will team up with the narcissist to go against you because deep down they want to take you down But if they can't do that They will just use you up and discard you you need to check and examine your social circle to see who's really down with you and Who may be willing to go against you?  They're not going to defend you. They're not going to fight for you They're going to switch it up real quick and easy Because they're weak people So they will be the first people to turn against you. They will be the first people to betray you Which is why you need to put yourself in a position What you cannot be taken advantage of so easily Because that's the first thing they're going to do when they get the chance They're going to exploit you They're going to go against you They're going to steal your information They're going to reveal things about your situation things that people shouldn't know because they're weak people So anyone can come in and use them to their advantage Anyone can turn them against you because they were never really with you anyway Which is why they will go behind your back and Reveal secrets and personal information about you to people who are directly in opposition to you and you will wonder how they could have this information They're not going to tell you that they're in contact with them Because they're both on the same team against you They're all the same kind you must guard and protect your social circle You must test those who are around you because people will act like they're in your corner They will act like they're on your side But they're not willing to fight for you They're not willing to give everything they have They're not willing to go to war They're not willing to do all of that. They're just lurking around because they're getting something from you Thank you for watching. I hope this video resonates with you Please like comment share and subscribe If you would like to donate my PayPal link is in a video description Coach the inquiries you could email me at coaching at naksa5 at the crew UK Thank you for watching and I'll talk to you soon


Hello, this is born from one dot TV and today I want to show off the brand new decal Which was awarded an elite dangerous in our latest community goal We were asked to support the efforts of the Ross 310 natural services or the criminals Man we had a community goal where we had to take part into a civil war between two factions in the system Ross 310 natural services, and we had the cartel I Forgot the name of them. They were like the the Ross 310 areas and the Ross 310 cartel Look how mean this guy is. He's like I hate all of you And then the unique thing about this community goal was that us players We had the chance to take part in this civil war choose a side and the winner got a decal the community goal just ended yesterday and I put in the work and made the top 10% so now I get to look at the spoilers of war first off I got 30 million credits for being in the top 10% if I go over to library here as my ship Transcend down into the hangar Let's take a look at the decals and see what they look like Now when they announced the event they gave us a kind of a preview of what the decals looked like it was a Kind of like a sidewinder shooting something So maybe we can analyze it a little bit better. I'm on my Corvette here. Yeah, let's look at it here Where I got my onion head. This should look okay. So here they are The first one is called espionage as you can see there It looks like a sidewinder shooting something. I Don't know if that's another ship or a station.  I think this was the the lowest tier or the second to lowest here and then we got the gold Which is the highest here. I was expecting them to go in order, but silly me and then we got silver Huh Gold is apparently the best you can get and Looking at this I Got to see I like the the original one the best. I like this one the best. It's got the most contrasts the bronze Hey, the bronze is not good Silver is a little bit better But the gold looks like it was done. I don't know hmm, I Don't want to sound unappreciative or I Don't know but it just doesn't look all that awesome But if I'm gonna rock one, it's probably gonna be the original So I kind of feel a little bit. I'm not gonna say cheated, but I feel a little bit bad I spent all that time You know, I got like 35 million in bonds. So I spent quite a few hours shooting NPC spaceships Excited to get this to get this this decal and this is what it looks like Hmm, what do you guys think underwhelmed overwhelmed? Welmed meh I'm sitting at meh right now. It's hopefully future events Will be better. I'm a little bit. I'm still a little bit optimistic I mean this open the doors community goals tied to cosmetics is a very very good thing So hopefully we'll see more and better decals instead of this Gotta say This looks pretty sloppy This is one from one that TV These are the decals from the community golden like dangerous Ross 310 natural services. I hope you guys are happy Because I'm a little bit underwhelmed next time you ask me to do something. I'm gonna look for a little bit more detailed Detailed proof of the rewards, you know show me some high res photos Take care guys. Have a good day


Good morning, Michael. Thank you for being here for us to have this really interesting conversation. I think we are really interested about what you have to tell us. And I would like to start linking our conversation with the conversation Pia had yesterday with Oli. They were discussing about how there was this translation from European countries in the micro simulation models to developing countries. And I would like to ask you how was this process with South Africa? How was the idea of creating the Samod and how was the discussions were involved? How was the relation with the government to collect data, etc.? Sure. Okay. Yes. And I was at the session with Oli so I can continue to make connections. I think Samod specifically really arose out of the commission that was set up by the African National Congress, the new South African government, the post-democratic South African government to review social security. And it was chaired by a woman called Vivian Taylor and contained various experts in social security from within South Africa. But they were also looking for international experts. And as I'm half South African, and at least I have a dual nationality of South African and English and had been working in South Africa, albeit briefly at that point, Vivian approached me to be one of the panel of international experts. And so that involved discussing the future of social security basically in the country to move away from a racialized social security system under the apartheid government to a deracialized system. And I recognized that I was not the only international expert that could come from the UK. So I brought in a number of other people, including Tony Atkinson and John Hills. And I was at Oxford at the time, Oxford University, and I actually brought the Taylor Commission to the UK. And we had many discussions there and continued those discussions and deliberations in South Africa. And when the Taylor Commission wound down, the National Department of Social Development, which is responsible for social security, was charged with taking forward the recommendations and developing a research agenda in order to work out the best way of moving social security in the country forward. And the then head of social security, the person called Fazir A. Macawani approached us at Oxford, and we started a dialogue with Fazir A. and later with the DG, Busse, Madeleine Saylor, in developing a whole program of work, looking at social security, poverty and inequality in the country. And that program of work we set about getting funding for from the British government from Difford, Southern Africa actually. And by 2003, I guess, we'd had negotiated a partnership between the National Department of Social Development, ourselves at Oxford, and colleagues from the University of Quasuna Natal in South Africa, a seven-year multi-million pound program. So I had many, many projects in it. But one of the projects that seemed like a no-brainer to us was to have some kind of tax-benefit micro-simulation model on the agenda. And there were many, many projects, as you can imagine, over a seven-year multi-million pound program that we at Oxford were responsible for even. And the micro-simulation project was kind of not one of the earlier projects. I think it actually kicked in, I'm thinking the timeline, 2006, I guess, really, because the actual program of work was signed off in October 2003. And then about three years in, we started to look at the tax-benefit micro-simulation modeling. And kind of we thought briefly in terms of constructing our own hard-wired model, either using some programming language or other or stator or something like that. But, you know, I'd got a history going back and knowing Holly and being in touch with well, PolyMod, first of all, which was predecessor to EuroMod when Holly was at Cambridge. And then Holly and I had a longer, so to speak, fireside chat about micro-simulation when we were both of us examining a doctoral thesis in 1998. So I got kind of like the quite into micro-simulation was in my thoughts at that time, although I had been dabbling earlier myself in it. But so anyway, I did approach Holly, and I'm sure it was not by a fireside, but probably almost certainly over a cup of coffee somewhere, because we bumped into each other quite frequently in terms of other meetings and so forth. And so I sounded her out as to what she thought would be the possibility of taking EuroMod beyond the countries in Europe, because the software had never been used outside of Europe. And she thought, well, let's give it a go. So basically in partnership, by this time, Holly had gone and moved to Essex. And I think Holly and colleagues at Essex and ourselves then set about constructing SA-Mod. And I suppose it took, just thinking of the timeline, I suppose it took a year, more than almost a couple of years really, to get it all together. Because there were big challenges on the data side. And there are also big challenges on the modeling stuff side, as far as we were concerned, because we were not really novices, not not, of course, for Holly and team. But the data particularly was an issue. We thought that South Africa would be quite a good country anyway as a developing country to start with. Because of its apartheid history, it had got a well-developed civil service, it had got a well-developed statistics bureau in the form of statistics of Africa, and relatively well-funded compared to other countries in sub-Saharan Africa. But even so, though the data were really quite high quality, they didn't ask the kinds of questions that you needed necessarily for a tax benefit micro simulation model. So we had to kind of cobble together a data set initially, which involved the income and expenditure survey, but also the labour force survey. We had to do kind of things like propensity score matching and so forth to get a single data set. So it took longer. And as Holly said yesterday, data prep is all really the quality of the data. The model is only as good as the data that underpins it. So we did a lot of work on the data. And it went through an iteration of 1.0. And then I think we managed to get to the point where 1.1, which we felt happy with, was launched in January 2008 in South Africa. And we had a kind of seminar with key academics and so forth. But Holly and I also, because Holly came to South Africa for this, Holly and I went to Parliament and presented it to what's called the social cluster of directors general. And director generals are the kind of head honchos of each department. They're political appointees, but they're not ministers, but they're the head of each department. The social cluster covers not just social development, which is social security, but also health, education, someone from the Office of the Presidency that's responsible for social sector, someone from the Treasury responsible for social sector, etc. And that went well, fortunately. So we've got quite a lot of buying from the South African government at an early stage. And because this was all a partnership with the South African government, this whole program, which was called actually SAKED, which is Strengthening Analytical Capacity for Evidence-Based Decision Making. So it's quite a well-known program within South Africa. And it actually was signed off by the Treasury, National Treasury. So everyone knew about SAKED and was watching for good outputs. But yeah, so we got buy-in really from the social cluster, which is a big deal, because it does mean that it had got credibility at an early stage, I guess. And then an enormous support from within the department, particularly by this time, the Director-General was who, Madam Saylor, just supported it. Zola Squire, the Minister for Social Development, who was a far-thinking and very, very eminent member of the AMC, supported it wholeheartedly. So we got kind of high-level support and buy-in. And by 2013-14, I guess, we got to the point where we looking elsewhere, really. So we were actually approached by UNICEF Namibia to produce a model for Namibia, which became Namot. Again, we did it with Essex. Namibia's infrastructure is much less good than South Africa, so it felt like a different kind of challenge. And then I think we were talking about moving beyond Namibia to the Southern African Development community, which is, I think, 15, 17 countries across Southern Africa. And we'd already ticked off South Africa and Namibia. So Essex and our sales, Holly and our sales, basically, we're talking then about, and she referred to this, about seeking funding to produce a SADIC mod, so to speak. Yeah. And in fact, then along came UNIWIDER. So Yuka approached Holly and the rest is history. But he did also ask me how I got involved in all of this. And that's, I hope, might be an interesting story for people. In that, I've always been interested in computers and computer software because my first degree was in science, biology, actually. But then after that, I became a lawyer. And towards the end of my stint as a lawyer, in the 1970s, basically, I became a welfare rights lawyer and became a welfare rights lawyer that was then kind of affiliated to a community project. Sorry, I was a welfare rights lawyer in a community project, which was affiliated to the University of Oxford. And I was actually employed by Oxford. And as part of that, I started with a colleague a sociologist at Oxford, developing a benefit calculator for individual claimants so that you could, a computer program at the time, in 1981, 82, 83, time when computers were not very popular, there weren't many home computers around. It wasn't the mainframe. But we developed a model that would calculate an individual level benefit. So it kind of was like, if you will, the benefit policies in a Euro mode, South Mod regime. So it's an arithmetic calculator, basically. And then, leading from that, we set up at the university, a welfare, what do we call it? I think welfare benefits research group. And we were particularly concerned that there was a massive social security reforms happening in the UK, which were to be implemented in 1988. So we were concerned to have been a lot of press about how people would lose as a result of these reforms, claimants. So we set about trying to model who would be gainers and who would be losers in certain aspects of that system, using administrative data. So my very first micro simulation was not a micro simulation that used servo data, but was one that used administrative data. So what we were able to do with initially with a couple of local authorities, Oxford City Council and Oldham Borough Council, Oldham is in the Midlands, Oxford is technically in the Southeast. And we managed to get extracts in 1987, eight time of the whole of their computerised housing benefits and council tax benefits systems. And we got them on big mag tapes and carried them to the computing centre and they were anonymised records, but they were individual records, which had information on people's earnings, other sources of income, etc. and rent, mortgage, whatever. And enabled us to model, first of all, changes in housing benefit, but also changes eligibility for other benefits, such as family credit, which was an in-work benefit. So we used the entire databases and constructed a model in a statistical analysis package called PSTAT. PSTAT probably still exists, but stands for Princeton Statistical Package or whatever. But PSTAT was the, what our computing service called a thinking person's SPSS, but SPSS, I don't think PSTAT did. So there clearly weren't many buyers for that particular slogan. Anyway, we did it in PSTAT and we did it on terminal, we didn't do it with screens like we do things now. We had a teletype terminal, we had to type in the commands and it printed out, and you had to write your whole program without being able to see it on the screen. I tell you, modeling like that at Hollywood have told a similar story. This mainframe modeling is not fun, but we were able, because we could only do it on a mainframe. PCs weren't capable of handling tens of thousands of records, which is what we were looking at in those days. They had like, not even a megabyte RAM, they used to have like 250K, 56K of RAM was a bigger computer. You certainly couldn't process these administrative data sets and so it had to be done in that way. So that was really how I got really thinking about micro-simulation back in the 80s, but not really branding it as micro-simulation, if you know what I mean. So I think that's really the whole story. Yeah, this is really interesting. I think it's completely different from how most of the people end up in micro-simulation models. And also the history about how Samod was created, because I did my homework before this session, and when you search for Samod, you find documents from 2007, but it seems that the discussion started many years before. So it's really interesting to listen from you about it. So while our audience is formulating the questions, I would like to ask you another question. Can you tell us a little bit about the relation between the activities developed in the Samod with the real practice? I mean, what I mean is how the activities the Samod development become policies or which policies were requested to be simulated and in fact were implemented or the discussion went ahead. Okay, yeah. Well, it's very hard to actually point to a particular simulation and say, no, that actually became policy because it hasn't quite worked out like that. But it's also true that probably most of the simulations that we've undertaken with Samod have been in a context that's been request from government as part of a reserve project that's been either separately commissioned by the South African government, one part or other of it, or has been commissioned indirectly through a research program that the government departments had or whatever. So we've done that kind of thing and I can talk about some of those simulations. It's also been used in a much more routine way, which is to estimate budgets and even forecast. So regularly, the South African Social Security Agency, Sasa, who's responsible for paying out grants, needs to know how much money they're going to need to pay out in years to come. So actually the basic model, we use it and re-weight the output regularly for Sasa to give projections. And so it's kind of used in that routine way and for in-house expirations, etc. But there have been a whole range of specific requests from government, starting really with sort of one-off specific benefits that didn't exist type requests, just I think testing the water like a youth benefit. Because the social security system that was around in the early 2000s after Taylor Commission had a big hole in it, which is basically that children were progressively covered, older people were covered from 60 onwards, people with a disability were covered, but non-disabled people from 18 to 59 weren't covered at all. So there's some earlier explorations as to kind of unemployment grants for such people. We also at the beginning, even child support grant, which is a child grant, didn't go right up to 18. So one of our early simulations, which is kind of fairly directly relevant to a policy change, was actually modeling, I think we got involved when they were wanting to extend it. It started off by being just powerful up to age six and then it got extended to naught 15 year olds and then 16 and 17 year olds were the last group and that by that time we got our model. So we were actually asked before that 60 and 17 year old extension to child support grant, we were asked to model that. And subsequently on child support grant, we've done work for DSD modeling, converting it from a means testing grant to a universal grant and how to fund it through the tax system. For the National Treasury and Department of Social Development, we've been involved in modeling a universal old age grant because it's again the current one still means tested. And yeah, and we carry grants and so forth. But most recently, I think we've been involved in work with DSD, looking at the social relief of distress COVID grant, and also the possibility of a basic income grant because the whole thing about the pandemic, even though way back in 2000, the Taylor Commission recommended a basic income grant for South Africa. And Zola Square was always incredibly supportive of that. He with our support would never get it through Parliament. But it's now actually on the agenda and we're doing work currently with the South African government on that. Really interesting. Yeah, I think I would like to hear about it because one of the great benefits that we receive from being academics is that we are not related to the policymaking. And I think it is the work in the micro simulation is really related to the policymaking and to this reward. So we still have some, we have still have two, three minutes and I will ask a question Pia wrote in the chat. Basically, what Pia is saying is that you have a big motivation of working with young scholars and government officials. So she basically asked about how these relations of engaging with young scholars change with time in some way. How does engagement with young scholars happen? And change over time. Sorry, I didn't. And also change over time. So how this happened and how changed with time? Well, initially the model was very much an in-house model really for the Department of Social Development. It really didn't involve more open access. We however didn't negotiate with the Department of Social Development that we needed to get it out there more. And providing it was used by educational institutions or not-for-profit institutions, then I think we were all, because it was kind of a jointly owned model, S6 ourselves and Department of Social Development were really happy for it to go out there. And so we have in our various, as a non-academic institution, we haven't had direct scholars ourselves, but we've kind of intersected with other universities, particularly in South Africa, who had access to the model and supported them indirectly rather than directly. But we've always, the one thing we have always insisted though is that people have some kind of training in Euro-mod or specifically SA-mod before they can run away and play with the model simply because we don't want it to, you know, force claims to be made on the basis of people who are inadequately trained. Okay. Thank you very much, Michael. I think this was a very interesting talk. I'm really glad that this was recorded, so people will be able to watch this later. Yeah, so thank you very much. Thank you, everyone.


Hey, I'm Chashana Rappley, you can call me Sho for short, and I'm a PhD candidate at A&U's Fenner School of Environment and Society, and I spend most of my time out here on Ngunnawal Country at Mulligan's Flat Woodland Sanctuary, which is where we're standing right now. Mulligan's Flat is a box gum grassy woodland, which means it's characterised by two types of trees, yellow box, and there's a few of them behind me over there, and Blakely's red gums, and those two trees together, collected with these grasses and shrubs, make up this ecosystem which is critically endangered, which is why we're protecting it here, learning about what makes it tick and how best to restore them here in other parts of the country. So I'm doing my PhD on bush stone curlers, they're not a bush or a stone or a curler, but they are a weird woodland bird, standing about 50 centimetres tall, and their nickname is murder bird, because they have this eerie wheee call that they do in the night time being nocturnal, and their local name is Warrabin in Ngunnawal language. They went extinct in the ACT in the 1970s, and we've been putting them back here since 2014. So ecosystems are by nature systems, they're interconnected things with lots of threads, so when you affect one part of that system, it can have direct impacts on other things and indirect impacts that flow down the line. Humans do a lot of actions that impact ecosystems, and direct things can be when we target a species, so for example, hubara bustards are endangered because of hunting for sport, and bluefin tuna are endangered because of overfishing, and these are actions where we directly target a species. Sometimes indirect things happen where we don't even mean to impact a species, but it's still detrimental to their populations, and so this is when we introduce species for example, or even diseases. Kichrid fungus is a great example of that, and I say great in maybe inverted commas because it's not a good thing. Kichrid fungus is a pathogen, a fungus that gets into the skin of amphibians, and that causes them to become sick and die, and over 40% of the world's amphibians have been affected, and dozens species have become extinct, six or seven in Australia already, and humans didn't mean to spread Kichrid around the world, it was by accident, it was from commercial trade of frogs, and the theory is that it came from Africa, but we don't know because we didn't mean to move it around, but we still have to deal with the consequences of that and the declines that have happened to the world's amphibians because of Kichrid fungus.


My name is Pablo Suarez from the Recross-Represent Climate Center, and we just had a very fruitful session about monitoring and evaluation of community-based adaptation issues. Instead of the usual panelists talking and people waiting for them asking questions and answer, we did something very intensely interactive. We based our 90 minutes on games, on playful activities that create an opportunity for colleagues or people who never talk to each other to listen to each other very actively, to try to distill the difference in thinking, to try to link information with decisions with consequences. One of the things we did was we brought one of these objects to represent the rainfall, too much rain or too little rain, or normal rains, and players in teams could allocate resources, players themselves, to invest in drug protection or flat protection or development, if you think it's not going to rain much. And we created a monitoring and evaluation system within the game, where people had to report about the outcomes of their decisions and about if something went wrong, why, and what happened. It was very interesting to see how, just by creating this moment of competition, collaboration, outcomes, the discussion about M&E got much richer, because they had a vivid experience about what was going on. Interestingly, we then invited people to reflect about what they have learned in the context of CBA, and the outcome had to be a tweet. So we asked them to define a problem that you haven't really seen, and now that you've been to CBA a couple days, or more if you went in the field trip, what are you thinking that is different, and the same in terms of solutions or potential approaches. And that also was very good, because it's very crisp and clear sentence, and people got to see the difference and got to disagree with each other. Another thing we did, which I think is very useful for this kind of crowd, is that at the beginning of the session, we invited them to make a selection of words that they think are very important related to M&E. They were elicited through a game called Snap. It's a lot of fun, and then we created a word cloud with that. In real time, they could see on the screen what they were thinking about M&E at the beginning of the session. And then with the tweets they generated, we create another word cloud that shows what they were thinking at the end of the session. We see that when we make these playful sessions, the difference between before and after captured by those two word clouds reveals change, reveals difference in thinking about the problem and about how to solve it. I hope that we as a practicing community of learning, of dialogue, of adaptation at the community level, can innovate more in these interactions that are very useful for our own entities, for the donors that support our work, and for the communities that we're trying to


Welcome to NTN Nightly, I am Genelle Norville. This edition stops stories. Plans for home cruise sporting viewport are advancing despite the impact of COVID-19. COVID-19 prevention and control protocols are extended to the end of May. And Prime Minister the Honourable Alan Chastney looks forward to critical changes in Caricam with a new Secretary-General. Prime Minister the Honourable Alan Chastney has completed the first week of a two-week quarantine period following his official travel to Miami, Florida on May 5, 2021. There, Prime Minister Chastney held talks with the Florida Caribbean Cruise Association on the plans for the home cruise sporting viewport. Honourable Chastney provided details during an appearance on the GIS weekend wrap-up program. Prime Minister Honourable Alan Chastney, having returned from official travels, provided an update on several projects which he indicated will be of major benefit to the country and the cruise industry. Highlighting other cruise spots in the region, the Prime Minister noted that given the increase in the size of cruise ships, cruise lines now require more than one home port, as such St. Lucia would make for a valuable addition. Another infrastructural project on the cards for St. Lucia is that of the UNR International Airport. Honourable Alan Chastney explained how that project complemented the southern home port. The decision was to move the terminal perpendicular or off to the side of the bottom of the Cacabeth as we know it. What that would have allowed us to do is the following. One is to build a new airport without interfering with the day-to-day operations of the existing terminal. And that once the new airport is finished, the goal is to convert the old airport specifically into a charter hall, but one designed very much in mind of home port. So what would happen is passengers would arrive off of the flight into the existing HIA terminal, which would be reconfigured. And passengers would not be clearing customs and immigration in that facility, but they in fact would be doing is being processed to get into their cabin. So they would get their room keys, they would put all their credit card information, etc. And literally when they leave that terminal to the new to the ship, which is only about a mile and a half away, we actually would be just going straight to their cabin and their bags would have been sent in advance. Prime Minister Honourable Alan Chastney explained that the cruise industry is very excited about this venture as it offers additional benefits, including the close proximity of the port to a dedicated terminal, aiding significantly with logistics, saving time, money and creating a better customer environment. He added, however, that the venture has not been without its challenges. The difficulty that we've had, Lisa, was one overcoming the current financial status of the cruise industry. And secondly, that the cruise companies wanted to be satisfied that they were sufficient tours available from view forward to service the remaining passengers. Because as I indicated to you, not all of the passengers getting on the ship would be coming on from solution. So there would be other passengers who arrive on that same ship and would be going on an excursion for the day. And so we've been working very closely with them to give them the assurance, one, that Sufer is actually closer to view forward, substantially closer to view forward than castries. It means that there's extra time that persons can stay in in Sufer and what are some of the new tours that we're doing in the Sufer area. The second one is the opportunity for new tours between view forward and Sufer, as well as between view forward and Dennery. The prime minister explained that the meetings also encompass talks with technical personnel to iron out the final details of the agreement. However, more formal pronouncement will be made at a later date. I will be making a more formal pronouncement, hopefully in the beginning of June. And I'm hoping that the MOU between the cruise industry and Sub-Mushab would have reached the point where we can sign it. So those are the details that we're working on. I felt it was important to walk to Miami because this has been one of the projects that we started from day one. And I certainly want to see it through its fruition before elections. The home cruise spot will be strategically located in VA4, in close proximity to the UNR international airport, giving St. Dusha a competitive edge. From the Government Information Service, Humadi Mark reporting.


I am demanding a better democracy because in the current two-party system we can't hold our politicians accountable because if Democrats and Republicans are not giving us what we want to see there's simply no other option we can't vote them out and so I want to see a better democracy that has more options for us that can actually represent the American people. I demand democracy because there are way too many issues very important to our entire citizenry that we all agree on but it can't get done because of the money in politics so I need to be here to be able to network with my compatriots who want to fix our democracy for a more perfect union. Thank you.


I do a pretty good job of boxing out. Sometimes I box out too much and I need to just go grab the rebounds. And it's done a good job. Guys are just more aware and they know that they need to come back and rebound. The guys that were in the bottom tier in it and people have been taking a lot of pride in that. Nick, you have five assists your past two games. It's a career high. How much has that been a byproduct of the way you guys been moving the ball as a team versus a point of emphasis for you? Yeah, just my feel for the game is definitely getting better. And just knowing where guys are and with me being aggressive and the defense is really shrinking, shrinking in and just kicking out and just having that good feel for the game. Were you aware going in the fourth that you hadn't missed a shot? No, I didn't know. I was just hoping, but I see I missed one in the fourth. Yeah. Nick, Jacques said that you've, just the way you played tonight with the way you were spraying the shooters on the weak side, setting up dribble handoffs. That's been like a big area of improvement for you.  Just experience. Experience is the best teacher. I've been playing with, you know, Katie, Kyrie for a few years now and the game is definitely just slowing down and it's just me picking my spots knowing when to be aggressive, knowing where guys are gonna be on the weak side as soon as I catch the ball. And it's usually like four shooters out there on the court with me. So just having that good feel. Thank you.


So, I am Sushant Singh, Senior Fellow at Center for Policy Research in India and a lecturer at Yale University. I am here at the USIP to discuss the state of India-China ties and to learn more about the state of affairs between the United States and India. So the current state of play on India-China border is very tense. It is a situation is not great at all. Both the sides have deployed large quantum of forces on either side and constructed massive infrastructure to deploy those forces, to support those forces on either side. As per estimates more than 50,000 Indian soldiers and more than 50,000 Chinese soldiers have been deployed on this border. And this situation has gone on since May 2020 when you know in June 20 Indian soldiers and 4 PLA soldiers died in a clash. And it is just not in Ladakh, but in other parts of the line of actual control that the Indian forces have been deployed in a forward defensive posture to ensure that there is no further loss of territory. This deployment also means that ties in other spheres between India and China whether it is in diplomatic sphere or atomic sphere have come to become more tense, which meant that President Xi Jinping did not come to India to attend the G20 summit like many other world leaders did or the fact that there had been no regular engagement between India and China on many other issue and India has been trying to reduce its economic dependency on China as well. India's primary aim with respect to China is to ensure that China does not become this hegemonic power in Asia, which is the only power in India has to act subservient to China within the continent or within the region. But if you look in the short term in the immediate term, India's aim is to somehow get over this border crisis and resolve this border crisis in an honorable manner in a manner in which it does not suffer gravely whether in terms of loss of territory or loss of respect globally or status in the region and that can be done by restoring the status quo which existed before the crisis began in April 2020. The interests of the United States and the Indian interests to converge when it comes to China, the United States wants to make sure that China does not become this hegemonic global power, does not become the number two power which is contesting the United States or is going against democratic norms or causing all other kinds of trouble and it is here that these interests are aligned. The United States has been supportive of India during this border crisis whether it is in terms of intelligence support, whether in terms of logistic support or diplomatic support and I am sure that kind of support will continue to happen. India and the United States not only should have convergent interest but also should have shared values and shared vision because if there is shared values and shared vision then these countries can demonstrate to the rest of the world that even democracies can survive, can do well for people, can bring in economic growth, can help the poor people and it doesn't have to be only a communist dictatorship which can lead to upliftment of masses of people and that's something India and the United States should focus on and particularly the United States should impress upon India that democratic norms you know values like religious tolerance, values like freedom of speech are important and must be valued.