All right. Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sorry about the technical glitch that we just experienced. So my name is Chaturavidyan again. I'm happy to present you with one of the well-received custom web application that we developed back in 2020 when COVID-19 was a big thing. So before moving into the demonstration, let me show you some two stories. So the first story is, so John tested positive for COVID-19, not our John, someone else. And John was in contact with Bob and Morton H in the daytime. And Morton H had to be with Morton S in the evening. Morton H bought some groceries on the way home. And it was the cashier of the store. So that's the first story. And the second story, Leo tested positive for COVID-19. Leo met Lars in the daytime. Lars bought some groceries on the way home. And it was the cashier of the store. So imagine having hundreds of these kind of stories per day, which involves hundreds or thousands of people, maybe per story.  So they can effectively quarantine the possible COVID-19 contacts of cases. So this is when governments decided that we can't do this on paper. So we might need some digital solution for that. So naturally, they kind of turns into his and ask for a digital solution for this one. So then the DHS to implement us, they analyze these kind of stories. And they realize that, OK, this can be easily solved with the tracker program. So we can define two programs, where one would capture the COVID-19 cases. And then another program where it would capture the COVID-19 contacts. And then we can create relationships between contacts and cases. So that effectively created a digital solution for tracking the cases and the contacts. So this is something that has been done during that time. And I have an example tracker capture program, which kind of meaning the same thing. So I have pre-registered my COVID-19 case, which is John in this case. And then I have another program. So I have basically two programs here, case-based surveillance and then contact registration and follow. So under the case program, I have John registered. And under the contact registration, I have everyone else registered here, Nick Modnich, Modnich, and Bob. And I haven't done the two people from the next story. So I will go ahead and register them to show you how we would have done that. So then here I have a new COVID-19 case with Leo. So I will just switch to the case-based surveillance and do a registration. For the local case ID, I will just use the name because it's easy. And first name, last name, I will just use Leo. And I can continue. And then I have another person who is a contact. And his name is Lars. So I will go back and register Lars and save it. And now I have all the people that needs to be registered. So I mean, this might be done in massive scale when we are practicing in an actual environment. So now, based on the second story, Lars has a contact with Leo. So I can simply add a relationship here. And Leo is the case. So I will just search for Leo. And I can add Leo as a relationship for Lars. And then it also says that Lars has been in contact with Nick. So then I can add another relationship. And in this case, Nick's contact is not a case yet. So I will search in the contact registration and follow-up program. Nick, and I can add him as well. So now, we have all the data required on DHI's group. But does it really solve the problem? I mean, it's in a tabular form. And we have everyone in the database. And all the relationships are created. But still, we can't figure it out that Nick is in the both traces. I mean, he might be in more risk than others. So we can't come into conclusions like that by just looking at tabular data. So that's when we decided that we need more visualizations that effectively visualize these kind of data, especially the relationships, in a graphical manner. So that's when we developed this application called relationship tracing. So this can be used for any kind of relationship tracing use case, not just for COVID-19 contact tracing. So with this application, we can save multiple visualizations. So for instance, I can go ahead and create a new visualization here. So I will just name it as new visualization. And the relationship that I would like to track here is the COVID-19 contacts and cases. So I can select that one. And then after the third step, I get the ability to create or add new track identity templates. So where I can essentially define the graph nodes. So I will go ahead and create the track identity template for cases here. So the template name would be case. And I can select the color for my graph node. And the program from where this track identity instance would come is COVID-19 case based surveillance. And then I can optionally add the node label to this graph. So I will just use first name because it's easy to track. And then I have the graph node for the cases. And then I will add the graph node for the contacts. And then the program is going to be the COVID-19 contract registration and follow-up. And I will add the node label here, which is going to be the first name again. And finally, at the fourth step, I can define the edges of the graph. And from will be from, I mean, the template from will be the case. And template for to will be the contacts. And then I can do more fine tunings here. I can hide the instances with no relationships. And also I can opt into have bi-directional arrows.  And then I can simply say my visualization. And once we are behind the visualization dashboard, we get the ability to select the enrollment start date and enrollment end date. This is important because there can be thousands of cases. So we can shoot limit the number of nodes that we will be displaying on the dashboard so it is more manageable. So by default, it's going to select one month range here. So I'm going to go ahead and click Update. And now we can see that it visualizes all the contacts and traces in a more presentable manner and in a more traceable manner. And we also get the options to click on one of the contact or trace, contact or case, and view more information like date of birth and several other track identity attributes. And also we provide the ability to open this profile on track capture. So we can do other edits. So back in Sri Lanka, addition to these capabilities, we even had the capability to trace by mobile number. So as you know, mobile operators can track your location not precisely up to 20 meters security. So government provided us with data from mobile operators so that we can trace people based on the mobile number. So if you register the track identity instances with mobile number included as a track identity attribute, we could simply do a search and find all the locations that he or she has visited during the past couple of weeks. Yeah, so that's about the contact tracing application or the relationship tracing application. Any questions? No questions. Thanks. I'll just one question. Pick up one. Thanks for a very nice app. I just want to say, usually don't pick up the groceries. That's my wife. We can change that for the next presentation. Nobody is very nice. And I'm just curious, one thing is visualizing these things on a graph like it just did there. But when you have all this information in terms of relationships and so on, are you able to create something more actionable for contract tracers? Like could you produce a list that they could print out and when they're supposed to call people? Or could you take this further and help contract tracers more beyond just showing them a visual like that? Did you get into that kind of activities as well? Yeah, for the app that we use in Sri Lanka, we had that feature. So we can select one of the case or a contact and trace up to, let's say, we want to trace up to five levels now. So that capability was there. But we had to rely on the web API for doing that. But possibly we could improve those things by running graph algorithms directly on the database itself. I'm sure that we can write these BFS or DFS directly on using postgres functions. So those kind of possibilities were there, but we did not go into that level. We just relied on the REST API for doing that kind of crisis. Any questions? Someone just said, nice. Thank you. Good. So last presentation, then we all can go for swimming. Let me quickly just show. OK, so just a bit of background. So this app, what I'm going to try to present is about cause of death with the doublet, including the ICD-11. You can all hear me, right? So the concept behind was like the doublet had created the repository where people can actually search the ICD-11 from an API standpoint view, and then they can select it up. And in DHS2, there were many countries where they were developing their own custom form and all the things for the cause of death module, where you have frame A, frame B, where you have to select all the cause, and then click on underlining cause of things. And then you have to create a dashboard and all the things. We also have a metadata package for MCCOD, Medical Certificate of Cause of Death. And in multiple countries, they were making it at different level. One were using custom app, one were using custom forms. So then we can say, how best we can try to help countries to solve this problem? So what we tried to do in collaboration with WHQ, that is Vietnam built a generic cause of death app, which can be installed in any DHS2 system. And then you can try to do all the data entry analysis and all the things, and also export easily. So you don't really require a programmer or anything for you can try to reset all these things up.  I'm not going to go into much details of all the things, but just show few key variables and all. So this is cause of death app in DHS2. We just installed. Like you go to the app hub and download and install cause of death app. That's basically it. And after you configure all the things up, I'll just go for data entry for now. So I'm in this one particular facilities. This is a custom app. This is based on tracker. There was lots of argument why you have a choose tracker because you also want to enable the sharing between cause of death and CRV system so that they can get the death certificate, but the Ministry of Health can actually give the medical certificate so it can be used together. In the data entry app, so you just do the registration, there are two things. So people don't really have to know DHS2 tracker, like enrollment, incident date, and all kind of things. So here is just like data of reported and data of death. This is a system ID which is automatically generated based on people who have configured it, give us name, last name, mail, and things. And then this is frame A, frame B, which is very specified. WH also say like you never change frame A. So these are all the different options what you have. We implement this system in multiple countries. Bhutan was the one of things and Maldives was trying to start. In this one, so when I click on each cell, so this ICD coding tool is in somewhere else. It's not in your server. It is going and talking to the WHO hosted ICD coding services where now if I want to select, I'm not a ICD 11 coder. I just know heart attack, shark attack or heart attack. So heart attack. So then it gives you the stuff, all the details. And people can actually check what all the different things are. So you can just select one of the things based on it. And then say. So then you can get most of the things on here. Then based on the ICD coding, we actually categorize the things in the chapter, the grouping, or other visualization purposes. If this is since it's a child and male, so you have less options. If it is a female, then you'll get the different options. And then if it's a greater than some age, you'll get also the maternal deaths and the other things in here. So I'm not going to go more into details. And this is also the medical certificate. It's again customizable where people can actually just choose which field to be showed, what are the different things. They can include the logo by themselves. And if people want to have their own particular format, they can try to include that one. After doing the data entry, the whole purpose of this app was everything should be in the same app. Data entry, an account export, where people want to analyze the data locally, dashboards, and also the translation, all the things. So it's all combined into one particular place. So in the Adversition app, once they have installed, they want to also change the certificate. Like you just say, you want to change the logo, or you want to do all the things that you can try to deal with it. If you want to add additional fields in your item, that can also be possible. Now I'm going to the dashboard. So this is a dashboard which is customizable, which is based on you have to run the analytics to get to all this dashboard. But it's not using program indicator. We are actually using the analytics, API analytics, to get all this information so that people, if they delete the program indicators in the management section, this won't affect. So you have mortality by cause. You can just select, OK, I don't want to use the TB. So then you can try to deal with all the different things. So if you want to include more fields, so then you can get all. And based on this, all the requirement was given to us by WHSQ, and I want to include all these fields in here. And then the things we'll get, I don't know, as it goes wrong. These data are the dummy data. We just entered just to show this graph and charts, mortality by noncommunicable diseases, mortality by frequent cause of death, by ICD that chapters. So all these things are in here. Again, TB, malaria, and all the things. And all the age breakups and all the things is based on the people who have done the data entry. Quickly, the translation. There are multiple types of translations. So first thing is on the data element side that we already know, each and every data element can be translated into many languages. This is for the app screen itself. Like in DHS2, we have two things, right? One is app, what you see on the screen, and then one is on the database side. Database side has already been handled. These are all the apps that want. So these are all the variables. So English, and if you don't have your language, so you can select your language from here. So we have listed all different kind of versions of the language. So sorry? Yep. That was the first one, I guess. So different type of Arabic. So you have all the things. So just say let's take Arabic app, and then you do your translation by yourself. This is only done by for the people who have the admin control, or that's a bit super user who can try to deal with it. Once you're saved, so then all your modules are there. That includes, and I've got export, what we just see in the screen, the dashboard items, like in the installation attribute. These are all the key fields, which we have incurred. So then you can add your own language and translate these keys into your language. Sometimes we are also managing to give few key translation. But then they say, no, no, this translation is wrong. Like we did it in Cambodia. Like one person entered the data. No, no, this is not really OK. This is something else. So then you want to change. You can also change it. So those are all the different fields. And these are all the buttons and icons, what you see. So all those things can be translated, like new registration search. So it's up to what you want to try to deal with it. And then people who know about Anacord, like these are the things where you want to try to export a particular data. This will take a bit more time, because we import a lot of data for all different kind of variables. So this will basically disaggregate the data by ICD code and the age and gender breakup, which can be downloaded into an Excel. And then using the Anacord options, you can try to deal with it, all the fields. That's basically the Anacord format, where in the top line you have this age breakup. And in the column or in the row is the ICD code for the whole country, and basically like this one. So this is the code, and it's the sex, and then all and the age breakup. This is the Anacord format, which you want to download and use it for your Anacord analysis. No, no, no, but this is exact for Anacord, because Anacord is, they have this particular format, and it has to be exactly like this one. We cannot change anything. This was, but you can also export the data into other place. You can also use all these things in your event report, online listing app, and all the things. It's still there. You just want to combine these features inside of the app so that end user don't have to go to other place to deal with many other things. Quickly, I just want to show you before the time's run out. Sorry? Yes, yes, I'll show you. I'll show you. Let me just stop present and present again. Just give me one second. So if you can just see, this one is the installation process. Too small, make it a bit bigger. Is it OK? So here, what it happens, when you first time install, you have a basic installation, which includes everything, default installation. You don't have to customize anything. But we always just say, don't do that one. Do the custom installation for a few reasons. The first thing is, the first time, you have to set up the, sorry, but the first thing is you have to set up the various ICD code, the tooling ICD code tool is loaded. This is the global platform, which is basically the ICT.wcho.int. That's the ICD coding tool where it is located. But if you have used ICD code in your own Docker or the server, then you just give the URL for that particular places. This is the Docker level installation. So when you click on, it will give you all the different details. After you select that one, then you can just choose whether you want custom or default. Just like going for the custom one. So when you click on custom, what happens is, you can just select. In your DHS2, you already have Tractor Program, where you already have first name, last name defined. You already have your gender and the age defined. So we don't want, when we install, this to be replicated. Because I've seen in many places, you have age for HIV, age for TB, gender for HIV. I said, no, you have to use the same attribute for all the programs. Just don't create multiple attributes. There's the same principle around here. So you select, you choose what is that field is, whether maybe it's called first name instead of last name. It's the family name or anything. So you can choose that one, date of birth, age, and all the things. And then you can add your additional field. For example, in Bhutan and other places, they want to include investigator name and all different kind of things. So then you can add your own additional field in your custom form or in your patient attribute. And then the next section is the Form A, which cannot be changed, but you can add additional data element. For example, where this person is there, the entire details of the investigator, the address, the phone number, where it was done. So you can add additional data element, but you cannot remove any of this data element. So that has been one of the things. In some places, they are allowed to, this is in frame B. In frame B, you have this surgery, manner of death, the infant deaths and maternal death, which are optional. But now they're saying it's not optional. Everyone should need to include all these things. But you are free to add additional options like double H or MCH or any other fields that you want to include in your data elements. You are free to add all those things. And then as you create a DHSU tracker program, you need to assign that one to where, whether it is only the hospitals or only in your provincial hospitals, the central level hospital, you choose where the medical costs of death coders are located. And other feature, other thing which is missing is, in many of the installation, is the groups who can actually change, who can view, who can do the data entry. And these are always, some time has been missed in most of things. So that's why like we haven't created this one, you have to select which are the user belong to admin group, which are the user are on the capture group and which are the user on view group. Once you have done all these things, then like you just like install, it will install all the different components into your local DHSU. And that's when you get the screen or the demo which I showed you as an app. The first time when you install, it will be blank, it will automatically take you on there. So then you have to choose, if it is a custom, if it's a default installation, then that means in your DHSU, there is no tracker program. So in your DHSU, if there is a tracker program, I always suggest don't go for default installation because you have to create all these different fields. That's basically it, presentation from me. Exact file, so any questions? Sorry? Okay, so that's in the installation round here. Let me quickly go around, okay. I can show it to you because it's not here yet or like in the online, because online we already put it up. Like here we have an add button when we're selection. So when you click, either you can select, like what you're seeing around here in this particular area is list of all the attributes what you have in your own DHSU. So you can select this one or if you just say, oh, I don't have this attribute, I want to add attribute. When you click on this add button, the app will take directly to the attribute section or data element section. So if the data element is already there, you can select it. But if the data element is not there, then you can click on add, it will take you to data element add manage the app. There you can add it up. Yes. Like for example, round here, this one is in frame A. So you can add additional section, but you cannot change the cost of that A or these sections. But you can add like say, the malaria section into here. This is a wrong things. You don't add malaria section to cost of that, but like anything, okay?  So here there is no need of programmer or in things, it's just like one person who understands the cost of that. So that person can actually include all the things. Yes. One quick second. I will share this presentation and it's an online system. Stop presenting, just one second. Sharing. No, like I'll do this one. I'll also share this one in the Google chat and as well as the in the email. Let's give you one second. So if you just go for this place with the link, which I said BHS2.world slash WSCOD. So that will give you, the username password is just there. So you can just like type the username password, COD, let's go demo, and demo at one, two, three, four. So there is a resources round here, which is a basically word document, which describes the list of all the different things, which you can download. Yes, and also you can select the cost of that app and play around. The verbal autopsy, or you could talk about verbal autopsy, right? The verbal autopsy is not, because like that's not dealing with, the only main thing what we are working right now is with medical certificate of cost of that, which is linked with ICD-11. That was the whole functionality. But the WHO HQ people are actually thinking around how best we can try to use the same approach for verbal autopsy and also for the mobility. And for other area. But this app was only focusing on to help the coders to enter these details into DHIS2 and how best they can try to simplify installation procedure and analytics and then the export process. John, can you hear me? This is Nenath. Yeah, hi Nenath. Hi, just I'm not sure whether I picked up the question, but if the question was related to Iris, I just wanted to add. So this is Nenath Kostancek from WHO classification terminologies team. So we have been collaborating with John in the development of this. That as part of the new release of the API for ICD-11 in the next year, we envisaged to include also a new tool, which we call DORIS, for automated selection of underlying course. And we are exploring with John and team to have this also embedded in the workflow of the app. So at the moment when you look at the workflow, as John demonstrated, the underlying cause of death assignment would be manual in accordance with the form. And the new tool which we are developing is basically a digitalization of the ICD-11 mortality coding rules so that you can consider using this tool for making, for automated selection of the underlying cause. And of course there would be different modalities individually, certificate by certificate. But I think the main option for deployment would be a kind of batch processing option where you run a bunch of coded certificates through the app, which will be part of the API release. Similar to what John has demonstrated with the Anacode 3, which is the tool for analyzing ICD-11 or ICD coded data for that effect. So that will be an additional feature. We are also working on electronic, WHO electronic death certificate, which includes some of these plausibility checks which John already has implemented in the app so that because we can leverage their number of new features which were not there before. So at the moment this is basically the electronic version of the paper, WHO paper-based death certificate, but we will have release of the electronic death certificate and also embedded here, which will leverage a number of these plausibility checks and other features which we can do now. Over, thank you. Is that okay? Any more questions? Good, Nenath. Thanks, thanks a lot. Thank you. Just Nenath, if you can say it wrong. Sure. There's one more question from the participants. Hi, thank you. About the Doris, we already saw the Anacort-3 import of the ICD-11, the Bluetooth app, and that's actually really a very good work. But the transition, if the earlier we have the process of death in ICD-10, whether that is possible to convert it into ICD-11 because in country, in Bangladesh, I am from Bangladesh, so there is ICD-10 and SOML both is in the system. So theoretically, this can be convertible, but whether it is technically viable option or not. Yeah, I think in order to ensure comparability of data sets, obviously, as you indicated, it will be important to have a crosswalk. So usually our recommendation there is to make use of the mappings we already provide on the ICD-11 website. If you can, I can post the link. I don't see the chat, but I will share it with John so that it can be distributed. So what we basically recommend countries or users to use is any kind of mapping should be done based on the maps which we already provide. However, these maps are quite detailed. So you will see that we are mapping there the 14,000 ICD-10 codes to the 17,000 statistical codes. You have an ICD-11, but ICD-11, as you have seen, has much more granularity. So the kind of entities, so it's not only a classification, it's also terminology. So the clinician will find all the detail there, the entities are actually running up to 130,000 if you include synonyms and clinical terms which are not codable entities, but they are sitting under the respective codable entities which are used for statistical reporting. So the map will provide you these crosswalks between ICD-10 and ICD-11. However, it is very important that before you start any kind of mapping work to really be clear for what purpose you do use the map and maybe you should also consider running some kind of frequency analysis on the actual used codes in your dataset vis-à-vis ICD-10 so that you don't do mapping or crosswalk based on our maps for the full scope but really for those whatever, 1,000 or 2,000 codes which really matter and which explain whatever 90% or 95% of the cases in the particular country if you look at it from a mortality perspective or from a morbidity perspective. So specifying the use case and doing a kind of frequency analysis before you start the mapping using the generics maps we provide on the website would be our recommendation. I hope that clarifies over. Yeah, that's okay. Thanks. Thanks, Danab. Thanks, participants. It's all okay. So it's a whole long day today. So take some rest. So we'll see you tomorrow. Oh, tonight for the dinner. Yes, there is a gala dinner and then after the gala dinner for the session is tomorrow morning 9 o'clock. Okay. Thanks. Thanks a lot.


By the way, so you can turn the cameras back on and any recording devices that you may have. I'm Ernie Bauer again. I'm the chair of the Southeast Asia program here at CSIS. And it's a real pleasure for me to be introducing our third and last panel today on, as we talk about Asian architecture ahead of the three summits in November, the APEC, EAS, and G20 summits. And we've got a terrific panel with us today. I really appreciate these gentlemen sharing their time away from very busy schedules to join us. On my right, we have the newly ensconced David Scheer, who's our assistant secretary of defense for East Asia and the Pacific. You know that David had come back from Hanoi to do this job. He was our US ambassador there. David is an expert on China and Southeast Asia. I think for many of us who are sort of in the trenches every day on these issues, couldn't think of a better person for the Pentagon to put into this role. Next to him is one of the top Southeast Asianists in the United States. And he also is Singapore's ambassador to the United States, Ashok Mirpuri. He was most recently Singapore's ambassador to Indonesia. He was, in the past, has been Singapore's ambassador also to Australia and to Kuala Lumpur, and has a long career in the Singapore Ministry of Foreign Affairs working on Asia-related affairs. And finally, good friend and a real hero of Southeast Asia and Asian policy in the Senate is Chris Brose. He works with Senator McCain in Senator McCain's office. Previous, before that, he was a senior staffer in the Senate Armed Services Committee. And Chris rose to the ranks doing some pretty interesting things, including writing speeches for and advising people like Colin Powell and Condoleezza Rice. So he really knows what he's doing and has spent a lot of time in Asia, much more than most Senate staffers, unfortunately. So without further ado, what we want to talk about in this panel is architecture as it relates to security. I'm going to ask my colleagues to kick it off in the order that we're seated in, and then we'll open up the panel to some question and answer. So, David, it's over to you. Thank you very much, Ernie. It's great to be back at CSIS, and it's a great honor to be joined up here with Ambassador Mirpuri and Chris Brose. I've been in my job, my new job at DOD for almost exactly one month now, and I can tell you from my experience during that one month that Secretary of Defense Hagel certainly has a very strong personal interest in Asia and East Asia. Given all of his history, the Secretary of Defense, the Deputy Secretary of Defense, the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, my chain of command are deeply committed to the rebalance to East Asia, and we've seen that most recently in Deputy Secretary Works' travel to the region. You'll see a flurry of senior-level meetings and encounters this fall, including coming up a security subcommittee meeting chaired on the American side by myself and East Asia's Assistant Secretary of State, Danny Russell. In Tokyo next week, Danny and I will also be going to Seoul before we go to Tokyo. You'll see a defense consultative talks with the Chinese. You'll see a military consultative meeting and security consultative meeting with our ROK allies. Also in November, of course, President Obama will be visiting Beijing, and defense issues will, of course, be part of his agenda in his bilateral discussions with President Xi. So again, the rebalance is among the highest priorities on my agenda as well as on my senior leadership's agenda, and you'll see me focusing very clearly on rebalance-related issues in my earliest days in my tenure. I'd like to share with you some of the issues that-some of the big issues I'll be focusing on, I think, as Assistant Secretary of Defense over the next months and years. And the first one is modernizing our alliances and partnerships. There's a lot on the agenda in this regard, from the review of the defense guidelines with Japan to the OPCON issue with our ROK allies to updating the defense framework with India, which we mentioned in the joint statement in Prime Minister Modi's recent visit to Washington, to the EDCA with the Philippines and the FPA with Australia. All of these are foundational issues in the strengthening of our alliance architecture in the Western Pacific, and all of these will guide the way in which we shape our alliances over the next 10 to 15 years. We're going to want to finish strong on all of these agreements. Successful conclusion and implementation matters, and this certainly will set the stage for closer cooperation between the United States and its important allies in East Asia and the Pacific. A second very important big issue we'll be working on is solidifying the military-to-military relationship with China. Secretary Hagel had a very good meeting with Foreign Minister Wang Yi the other day here in Washington to review U.S. bilateral relations and planning for the President's trip to Beijing. As you probably have seen in the Strategic and Economic Dialogue, both sides recommitted to working on a set of confidence-building measures, and we will be working on that set in advance of the President's trip to Beijing. A third set of big issues we'll be working on is knitting together allied and partner cooperation, and Evan Medeiros spoke during his remarks of our trilateral partnerships, particularly U.S.-Japan-Australia, U.S.-Japan-India, but we're also interested in encouraging greater cooperation among our allies and partners in East Asia. We're very gratified to see increased cooperation between Japan and Australia, between Japan and India. We're also gratified to see greater diplomatic coordination between partners and friends like Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia. All of this greatly strengthens security and stability in the Asia Pacific, and we believe can contribute to the reduction of tensions, particularly in the South China Sea. Another area I'll be focusing on, of course, is strengthening U.S.-Azion defense ties. We've seen the establishment over the past few years of the ADMM+. We've had great progress in building regional defense cooperation. Secretary Hagel certainly is very interested in his encounters with his counterparts during Shangri-La dialogue at the ADMM+, and most recently, also recently in April in connection with the U.S.-Azion defense ministerial meeting in Honolulu, and we hope that that can be a future fixture in our defense relations with ASEAN. Of course, as we work all of these issues with our partners, friends, and others in East Asia, we'll also want to be working with them to manage disputes and issues that generate tension. I don't need to mention how important maintaining security and stability, particularly in the South China Sea, is to us. Our position on this has been made crystal clear. On many occasions, it's going to remain a very strong focus for me and for my leadership in DOD in the coming months. Why don't I stop there and let my other friends comment. Thank you, David. Ambassador? Thank you, Annie, and congratulations again to you and CSIS for putting together this conference, to look at some of these bigger pictures in the Asian architecture and in particular security architecture, because how critical it is for U.S. interests going forward. I wanted to look both at the big picture and at ASEAN's role, because as an ASEAN ambassador here, much of the architecture really focuses around ASEAN's centrality. But the main reason why the architecture is important is that the region has enjoyed a peaceful and secure and stable environment for several decades, something that many of us, in fact, take for granted. And these conditions have enabled growth and prosperity, which is the key thing that we want to see out of the Asia Pacific. So the regional architecture, both the security and the economic architecture, is really designed to preserve this. But in this post-Cold War geopolitical environment, we're starting to see fairly dramatic shifts. And that's where conversations about the architecture become important. The environment is shifting, and Southeast Asia in particular is becoming more complicated as a region as we have to reposition ourselves in the context of Washington's and Beijing's search for a new equilibrium. The regional dynamics are complex. It's no more than just Washington and Beijing. There are other major powers that continue to adjust your relationship with each other and with ASEAN. And tensions in the region have risen, and there are several potential flashpoints that have to be managed. And that makes the architecture a very important issue for us to look at. Now ASEAN's role and this term of ASEAN centrality has in many ways played a very crucial part in maintaining regional peace and security. But I don't want to overplay this role and ASEAN's strategic weight. Those of you who know ASEAN and know the rest of the region, you know that this is ASEAN's central role is probably due to the fact that we are a neutral platform rather than because we carry such a strategic heft. Because in that neutral platform, ASEAN has offered a space for all major powers to discuss issues of concern to build trust and to promote cooperation. And what ASEAN has done has been to promote an open and inclusive approach and welcomes the engagement of all major powers. It's a critical part of ASEAN that we're not just an inward looking organization of the 10, we're an outward looking organization that includes our dialogue partners and other major powers with us. And this is characteristic in all the ASEAN-led mechanisms that we have put in place that form a regional architecture that is open, inclusive and outward looking. In particular, we value the contribution of the U.S. to all of these ASEAN-led forum, such as the ASEAN Regional Forum, the ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting Plus, and the East Asia Summit. For more than 60 years, the U.S. President has been a stabilizing influence that has underpinned Asia's and ASEAN's growth. There are, and we will hear this regularly, multiple and overlapping structures of this ASEAN regional architecture that reflect in many ways the complex diversity of the Asia-Pacific region. From our view, this overlapping structures actually makes the regional framework more flexible and resilient. Let me go through briefly each one of the structures that we have in the security area. The first and the longest running has been the ARF, which was created in 1994 as a forum for security discussions that will engage not just the major powers but also middle and smaller regional powers to preserve their stake in the regional stability in the post-Cold War era. For example, the ARF today is the only multilateral security consultative framework in the region in which the DPRK participates. Another structure that we have is the ADMM Plus, the ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting Plus, which came into force in 2006. Its establishment of the ADMM first was really the commitment of ASEAN countries to have their military establishments to work together to address transnational security issues. We then expanded this to have the ADMM Plus, which comprises ASEAN with the eight other EAS partners, that has become not just a channel for dialogue but also an action-oriented avenue for defense ministers from the region and beyond to come together to discuss practical solutions to manage peace. And they have done exercises that pull together various militaries into these operations. The third structure is the EAS, which we are all looking forward to next month, which the President will attend, and with the expansion of the EAS was established in 2005 and with its expansion in 2011 to include the US and Russia, it has again brought the major powers together into a leaders-led forum. The key focus now for the EAS is really to focus on consolidating for the future. And while it remains a leaders-led forum for strategic discussions of the future, what ASEAN is very keen to have brought into the EAS as well is areas of functional cooperation because these really this add to the agenda and help to build on the architecture in order to keep the mechanism alive and healthy. It adds a certain balance to the structure and ensure that the EAS remains a credible forum for constructive cooperation. And various ideas in which the US can play a role in some of these functional cooperation areas include obviously disaster management, education, finance, energy, which you spoke about this morning. Now looking ahead at all these structures, a frequent complaint and almost criticism has been that all these ASEAN-centered regional architecture structures have emerged into a spaghetti bowl that people find difficult to unravel. From ASEAN's point of view, these mechanisms actually each play a unique role and they complement and reinforce each other to serve the common interests of maintaining regional stability and growth. The perspective of trying to rationalize into a single arrangement or to try to impose a hierarchy among them will be very difficult, if not impossible. Instead, our view is that these regional structures and architecture should be allowed to evolve, adapt and find a natural dynamic equilibrium at their own pace as we improve ways to get better coordination and develop synergy among the mechanisms. And in this regard, we have now actually welcomed the dialogue partners to give their ideas for the future of this architecture and taking on proposals on how to improve the existing frameworks. But what is critical in all this is that we must ensure that we, the regional architecture, for all the reasons that they have been successful, is that ASEAN remains very much at the core, keeps that place as a neutral platform and continues to reflect the diversity of the region and remain open and inclusive. Indonesia in particular from ASEAN has proposed an Indo-Pacific treaty and next week in Jakarta, the EAS workshop and regional security framework will meet to discuss this further. And these are some of the ideas that we're looking ahead of how can we make this, the whole architecture much better. Let me say a few words about the U.S. engagement. As I said earlier, the U.S. has played an integral role in the regional architecture and remains a critical and unique component in the future. It is important for the U.S. to stay engaged and this engagement must be broad, based and multi-pronged. The region appreciates the U.S. continued support for ASEAN centrality and has come across time and again in the various comments and speeches that have been made by U.S. leaders about how important the ASEAN centrality is in the evolving regional architecture. And importantly, ASEAN and the U.S. share many strategic perspectives and we should work together to continue to build up the existing institutions and keep the architecture open. We also welcome the U.S. support for key principles like peaceful resolution of disputes in accordance with international law, the right of freedom of navigation and the right of overflight. So in conclusion, let me just summarize the three principles that ASEAN really looks at the regional architecture from our perspective. First, ASEAN should be at its core in order to maintain ASEAN unity and cooperation. Second, it should reflect the diversity of the region and third, it should remain open and inclusive. So as there are multiple and overlapping structures that are sometimes redundant, from our point of view, they actually make the regional architecture more resilient and stable. And from our point of view, the architecture should follow the agenda rather than vice versa. Thank you very much. Excellent. Thank you very much. Chris, I think you want to give the ambassador a round of applause for that. Please, honest. I heard it coming. I don't want to deny that to you because it was organic and it was coming your way. Chris, over to you. Thank you. Thanks, Ernie, and thanks CSIS for having me here today. Obviously, look, I'm extremely flattered to be among the company that I'm in. Clearly, you can tell one of these things is not like the other. My first name is not Ambassador. And by way of making the point further, I was telling Dave earlier that I think my sort of signature accomplishment on Asia this year has been playing some small role in the confirmation of Dave Shear. So you can sort of see clearly what you're getting here. Look, Congress is not a participant in Asia's architecture, and maybe you can all be thankful for that. What I'd like to try to do is just give you a little bit of a sense of how the Hill is looking at some of these security challenges when kind of back into the Asia architecture question. And what I'd like to try to do is sort of frame it in terms of two questions, both of which kind of appeared on the cover of the anonymous this year. And I think these are the kind of these are the two questions that are really kind of overhanging. And the first, this was a couple weeks back, very plainly, what does China want? This is something that I think as members of Congress are looking at the region, they're increasingly traveling through the region.  It's not by any means extensive to the entire body. This is a question that I think members of Congress are confronting. They want the United States to have and believe the United States can have and should have a very constructive relationship with China. They see all of the benefits and all of the common areas of cooperation between the countries. And they recognize that, you know, it's there's a lot of upside there for both countries together. And yet they look at a sort of a pattern of behavior that is concerning to them. And, you know, the pattern of behavior is something like this, you know, it's a series of actions that are not sort of purely diplomatic.  They sort of occur in a gray area. There appears to be, you know, sort of a strategy of incremental creation of facts on the ground or in the air at the sea. And, you know, there's a concern I think that this is what we are seeing is sort of a long game, an attempt to incrementally move by move, change the status quo unilaterally, never in a way that sort of fundamentally trips a wire and, you know, triggers a response on behalf of the United States or others, but nonetheless continues to move the needle such that five to 10 years from now we're all looking back. And it's a very different, it's a very different region that we're looking at. And I think, you know, there's the sort of the prevailing view in the Congress is, look, I mean, China thinks about its foreign policy.  You know, I think the kind of prevailing view on the Hill is, well, there's intent there. Even if we have to infer it from action. And, you know, that intent is perhaps unsettling, which is this to some extent does reflect conscious action. And it's about more than the particular territorial claims that we can discuss today further. It's about, you know, a conscious attempt to challenge the balance of power and change it, about even changing key elements or challenging key elements of the international order, particularly the peaceful resolution of disputes. And most fundamentally, I think, as an American is concerned, it's a challenge to the American presence and sort of historical role in Asia and commitments to countries that we have, either formal treaty commitments or otherwise. So I think the question that I think many members of Congress and the sort of prevailing view in the Congress comes back to is, again, what does China want? The second sort of security challenge that I'd point out, maybe somewhat provocatively, also appeared on the cover of The Economist. And it was, what would America fight for? Now, fight is not necessarily to be used literally, but I think the point is, what is America ultimately seeking to do? What are we truly committed to doing? What are our red lines, et cetera? And I think, you know, as members of Congress, congressional staff travel through Asia, particularly ones who are, you know, maybe less experienced there, they're struck by a prevailing sense and pervasive sense of doubt and question about the United States. And this isn't so much a question of, you know, questioning America's capability. You know, there's a lot of capability economically, militarily, et cetera, although I think increasingly people are questioning that, too, as we see the effects of sequestration and declining budgets, et cetera. I think it's more a sense, and again, this is what people sense traveling through the region. It's a question of America's resolve, commitment, judgment, you know, what it's ultimately seeking to do here. And, you know, there are different reasons for this. Obviously, I think there's the sense of people looking at our opinion polls. Obviously, they can discern that Americans aren't too into foreign policy at the moment. That may be changing. But there's a question of sort of national distraction to what extent Americans are focused on this. There's also, you know, sort of the question of national dysfunction, you know, the question of, look, America can't even fix its own fiscal problems. How much are they really going to help us when we need them? There's that doubt that lingers out there. And then, look, I mean, I would say when it comes to Asia and security policy, there's a lot of bipartisan cooperation. And it really is an area that is somewhat unique from other aspects of our foreign policy, where I think there's broad consensus on the rebalance. That being said, I think there's a real question about whether the rebalance is sort of coming into being. And that is a sense that we hear as we travel throughout the region as well. Is this more rhetoric than reality? And I think part of this, too, is, you know, it's a question about the U.S. response to Asia. And I mean, I heard most of Evan's speech and most of it I would agree with. I think the question is not, is America doing something? Clearly America is. The question is, is what America is doing adding up to a set of actions, you know, unilaterally, bilaterally, multilaterally, that is fundamentally impacting China's calculus as it presses out in the East China Sea, South China Sea, et cetera. And look, there's the other piece of this which overhangs it, which is that this isn't just about Asia. You know, our sense and think something that I think many members of Congress have been struck about is how much in their conversations on security issues, you know, with Asian partners, the topic comes back to Ukraine and what's happening there and how the U.S. is responding, or last year, the response to Syria, the sort of crossing of the purported red line and the lack of follow-through and many people in Asia asking, what are the implications of this for us? And maybe that's an unfair question. Maybe it's out of bounds, but it's real. And that's something that I think, you know, again, many members of Congress are very sensitive to. So I just say, in conclusion, you know, the architectural issues that we're discussing here are very important. And there's a lot of potential for them to resolve these kinds of challenges to clarify people's views and thinking. But, you know, age-old problem, you know, geopolitics really determines the capacity and ability of architecture to function. And I think when it comes to the geopolitics right now, you know, the two questions that I tried to lay out today are really concerning. There are questions that I think here in this town we're still sort of seeking answers on and trying to come up with better answers on. And it's still going to overhang, you know, our diplomacy and what we're seeing as the region comes together in November for these summits. Thank you very much for those remarks, Chris. And thank you for the panel for your excellent insights. I'd like to start with a question and then open the floor. And the question is, many have argued that the foundation of long-term security in Asia is economics. And I didn't hear any of you sort of talking about that. I wonder if you have a channel that the security thinking is linked to, but it's not related to. How do you think about it? I snuck in one word that said economic. And then, Chris, of course, referred to the economists throughout. So you know that, you know, how the whole thing... But, you know, it is... They go together. Because we had the morning discussion on the economic architecture. I didn't want to get into all that. The key thing that obviously is there, every Asia Pacific leader, whether or not they're in TPP. Because even those who are out wonder what it means for them and how can they get into it. And those who are in, obviously, are in the throes of very difficult negotiations to get it done. And in particular, for the U.S., the constant conversation that comes up in all meetings is, when are we going to get this thing done? It really is that key not just about the economic future of U.S. interests, but also the key of the strategic engagement of the U.S. in the region. It's becoming, in many ways, a test of how people see the U.S. engagement in the region. And I think that looking ahead, that's what we want to see get done. There are other elements, obviously, of the economic bits as well. The entire trade structures. We have RCEP that does not include the U.S. The ASEAN economic community comes into force next year. All these things are happening. But for the U.S., I think getting the TPP done is a critical thing. I want to address your question from a slightly different angle by saying, by drawing on my experience as ambassador to Vietnam. Some people have said that the rebalance is primarily a military strategy. I want to try and counter that impression. In Vietnam, the rebalance, certainly, and throughout the region, actually, it certainly brings all of the tools of state graft together to pursue our interest in increasing our diplomatic coordination with the Vietnamese, particularly on regional issues within the multilateral context. We, on the economic side, we, of course, are negotiating with Vietnam as a member of, as a TPP partner. And both Americans and Vietnamese, I believe, recognize that TPP is not just, will not just benefit us economically, but it is also strategic in many ways. Finally, we very strongly promoted defense cooperation with Vietnam. And we see the fruition of our efforts in that regard with the partial lifting of the ban on lethal weapons sales to Vietnam just yesterday. So our implementation of the rebalance in Vietnam certainly was multi-pronged. And again, it relied on all the tools of state graft to pursue our interests. And that's what we're doing throughout the region. And if there's uncertainty in the region, it shouldn't be uncertainty about the U.S. commitment to continued peace, security, and prosperity there. Thank you. Yeah, just a very brief point. I mean, I agree completely with what both Dave and the ambassador said. TPP is critical to get done without it. You know, it's going to be a real problem the U.S. faces and totally agree that the rebalance cannot be one-dimensional. I think that the challenge is that if you look at the sort of economic trend in the region, it is toward greater integration. It's a very positive trend. I think the concern is that the security trend may be heading, if not in the opposite direction, not exactly in the same direction, maybe not fragmentation, but certainly rising tension. And this is something that Evan Feigenbaum, Bob Manning have pointed out. Can you continue to have economic integration when you have rising security tensions and strategic challenges? Is that something that is sustainable or not? Thank you. Okay. Floor is open. Let's start here. This gentleman in the front. Again, just please tell us your name and your affiliation if you have one. Thank you. Thank you very much. My name is Jason Zhang. I'm a reporter with South Korea's Yonam News Agency. I have a question for Assistant Secretary Shear. And you mentioned the OPCON as one of the issues that are related to the modernization of the alliances. As you know, United States and Korea plan to announce an agreement on delaying the OPCON transfer when they hold the annual defense ministers meeting later this month. Can you tell us about how close the two countries are to agreement at this point? Thank you. We agree with you that that remains the deadline for our discussions on OPCON. Of course, we're discussing a conditions-based approach to OPCON with our ROK counterparts. And this is going to be an issue that I certainly focus on during my presence next week in Seoul. You're getting good at this defense, Emile. Right here. Gentleman in the front. Thank you. Great presentations. My name is Emile Skoden. I'm retired Foreign Service Officer and formerly Ambassador Brunei. I'd just like to ask the other two panelists to answer to the extent they can. The question is that Chris posed. Ambassador Merpuri, in your opinion, what does China want? And Ambassador Shear, in your opinion, what would America fight for? Unlike members of Congress, ASEAN ambassadors do not know what China wants. You have to ask the Chinese that. But China is a very important presence in Southeast Asia. They are a growing economic presence. They have become the number one trading partner, I think, for all ASEAN countries. And we value the relationship that is being built economically. Tourists, traffic, trade, investment, their proposals and ideas for how to link the region closer together, their ideas of connectivity. So from where they sit, as the economy grows, I think that Southeast Asia will benefit from their prosperity. And then the question that keeps coming up, obviously, is, and Chris has tied this link, can you have this economic integration when you do have ongoing security tensions? And that is something that Southeast Asia discusses extensively with the Chinese. We're talking about the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea, moving that forward. Because what we want to do is, again, to use the ASEAN platform to try and manage these tensions. And there are these tensions do arise. And how can then ASEAN work together as a group in the maritime security space where not all of us are claimants? How do we work together, as 10, to work with China, to work out a framework where there are certain rules that we all respect and move forward towards? I strongly agree with the ambassador on this. It's clear that I think one of China's highest priorities is to maintain an atmosphere and a situation in East Asia that allows them to continue growing economically. And I think that's probably among their highest priorities. Of course, the Chinese want to defend sovereignty and territorial integrity. That's always been among the highest priorities of the People's Republic of China. The question is how you do it. And that takes us to the second part of your question. I think among our highest priorities in the region is to increase respect for the rule of international law. And this has been an issue in the South China Sea and an issue in the East China Sea as well. And we will look to our partners and we will look to China to work with us to strengthen the rule of international law in our interactions with the Chinese throughout the rest of the year and in the future. Gentlemen here. Thank you. I'm Xu from Taiwan, China, and I have a question for Mr. Bruce. You have just made a very interesting comparison between the situation in Eastern Europe and the situation in Eastern Asia. So I'm wondering that with the U.S. to adopt something like the double standard attitude to the maybe to the risk or regional emergency happening in these two different regions, and or American will adopt the same standard when facing the regional risk of the international tense or the urge for American to intervene or at least to watch carefully. And if there is there the variation indeed exists, is that decided by the public opinion or public concern in American society or is it decided by any other factors? Thank you. The question is, is there a double standard that's being applied to U.S. policy in Eastern Europe and U.S. policy toward Asia? Look, I mean from where I said no, I think that the policy that the U.S. is trying to follow in both places is consistent in the sense that we're objecting to what Russia is doing in Ukraine because they're violating the sovereignty of an independent country. They're clearly not trying to resolve disputes peacefully. And I think that in both parts of the world, you know, the goal here is to uphold a rules-based international order that the U.S. has played a significant role in for the past 70 years. And I think we see both as obviously very different challenges, but in some sense similar. Thank you. I'm Ching Yi Chen with Shanghai Media Group. I have a question to Mr. Assistant Secretary. You just mentioned President Obama will visit China and what will be on his agenda when he visit China in terms of strengthening military to military relations with China? And also the U.S. just left the long-time ban on providing lethal weapons to Vietnam yesterday. So how do you think about that and will that create more stability or more instability in the region? Thank you. Thank you very much. As I mentioned in my remarks, we want to create a strong, stable military-to-military relationship between the United States and China. At the Sunnylands Summit in 2013, President Xi proposed that we explore establishing a set of confidence-building measures between our two militaries, and we reaffirmed our interest in doing that at the Strategic and Economic Dialogue. We're looking at two different kinds of confidence-building measures right now. One of them is a notification of major military activities effort. The other is on rules of the road, rules of behavior for air and maritime encounters, and we're discussing both of these, and we hope to have something positive to say in this regard during President Obama's stay in Beijing. On your second question, we established a comprehensive partnership with Vietnam in 2013 when President Tsong visited Washington. We're in the process of implementing that comprehensive partnership in all areas of the relationship, and we thought it was only appropriate as part of implementing the comprehensive partnership that we look at lifting the ban on lethal weapons sales to Vietnam, which we think is about time that we did that, given the growth of our relationship with Vietnam. We believe that this will help Vietnam contribute to regional peace and stability. It will help Vietnam in disaster relief and humanitarian assistance, for example, and it was time. The reason we did it partially, because we want to see further progress in human rights on the Vietnamese part, but we thought that the current progress was sufficient for us to partially lift the ban relating to items relating to maritime security. I just wanted to follow up on that and ask Chris, you guys worked on the Vietnam issue on the Hill. Was there bipartisan support for that move? Yeah, there absolutely was. I mean, this was something that we had been working on previous to the decision. The lethal arms embargo is maintained under executive authority. It's not maintained in law or statute. So it didn't require an act of Congress to ease it, but the administration, I think rightly, wanted there to be political support for this. Wanted the Congress's reaction to be favorable, and I think what we were able to do, Senator McCain introduced a resolution back, I guess, two weeks ago and had on it as cosponsors, Senator Pat Leahy, Ben Cardin, Senator Corker. So very key leaders of the Senate when it comes to Asian issues, Asia policy issues. So yes, there was a very, very good degree of bipartisan support for it. It's just a question of now kind of building further upon that. Okay. The lady here. Hi. My name is Nadia Chau with Liberty Times. First of all, I would like to ask Mr. David Shear. Taiwan is asking for the U.S. to help to build the indigenous submarines. First of all, I would like to know, you know, has any decision been made from the DOD's point of view? And also, do you think this will contribute to the stability or the security of this region? Thank you. Of course, the U.S. remains committed under the Taiwan Relations Act to providing Taiwan with the defense articles it needs to maintain its security. I have been strongly committed to this throughout my career, particularly during my stint as the Director, as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Chinese Affairs when I was in the State Department. I continue to be strongly committed to that. And the question of submarines is under discussion. No decisions have made yet, but as part of our overall interactions with the region will of course be staying in close touch with our counterparts from Taiwan on this and a range of defense-related issues. Thank you. I'm David Carl. I'm a business consultant. I'd like to get back to the question of what does China want? That question presumes that China is a unified actor and capable of acting in a deliberative, rational way. Another way to look at this is that China's foreign policy actions are actually reflective of factional struggles within the leadership, robust bureaucratic actors that are resistant to party leadership. I have a colleague in Beijing who sent me a message last week that he's heard rumors of an assassination attempt against President Xi. I'm wondering if instead of thinking of China as a strong state capable of these foreign policy, assertive foreign policy behavior that what we're seeing is actually reflective of internal weaknesses. I have no doubt that domestic political considerations contribute to Chinese foreign policy decision making. I have no doubt that strong bureaucratic interests also contend for influence within the Chinese governmental firmament, just as they do here, just as they do everywhere. Part of our challenge is the fact that the Chinese aren't transparent about their decision making, particularly in defense relations. Part of our effort at engaging the Chinese in this area is to help them increase their transparency in the defense area, and that will be part of our goal in pursuing these confidence building measures. I'm Andres Ovejo, and I'm the Chief Representative in Vietnam for the Interstate Traveller Company, and this is a wonderful panel. But my question is this. The wonderful speaker from the President's Executive Office, Dr. Evan Medeiros, he was a wonderful anybody. He sounded very strong and positive about our ability to get TPP done. I wish I felt as confident as he does. So my question is, what's your prognosis? I mean, probability, 60%, 70%, 40%. What's the prognosis, and what are the biggest obstacles to getting it done? Are they with protectionism in Japan or with domestic policy here in the United States? No country is more in the game on trade than Singapore. So Ambassador, can I ask you to take a swing at this one? I heard recently that the TPP will be done by November. They never specified the year. So we've been hearing this every November, every time we come together for an APEC meeting. I wouldn't hazard a guess of when we're going to get it, how long it's going to take. But I want to give you a sense of how difficult it is to get it done. Singapore already has a bilateral free trade agreement with the U.S. and very different type of economies, one very large, the world's largest economy, and one Singapore's small island state. It took us a long time to get a bilateral free trade agreement just between two countries. Can you imagine the complexity of 12 countries, including the world's third largest economy, including countries like Vietnam that have to make fairly significant changes, economic changes, Canada, Mexico covering 40 percent of the world GDP, and not just trying to get an agreement among 12 of us that's called the TPP, but also bilateral agreements among each one as well. So you look at the complexity of that and you can understand why it's taking us some time to make sure that we get a good agreement. When you want to have a 21st century agreement, as that is what the expectation is, then we may have to take time to make sure that what we get is something that is useful for everybody, that makes sense, but you need to give the negotiators a bit of room rather than putting deadline after deadline, November after November. I think they're working at their best to try and get it done. The leaders obviously have given directions of what they would like to see done. And we're hopeful that as soon as it's ready, I'm sure there's no reason to keep it away, but just try and understand and appreciate the complexity that goes into putting this thing together. And as I look at the process, I'm in fact sympathetic to them that given what they're trying to achieve. Chris? Yeah, I can just say a word on the domestic politics piece. I think the part of the challenge is that it's incredibly regrettable that the Senate did not give the Administration Trade Promotion Authority. That ultimately came down to a decision by the Senate Majority Leader. So I think an added challenge to the incredibly complex negotiation that's ongoing is that if you're a trading partner of the United States, are you going to put your best offer on the table if you're suspicious that you might not have to then negotiate with Congress afterward? I still think that this can get done. I think it's too big to fail. When it gets done, not clear. What I would simply say is I think politically speaking, whether this happens this year, maybe not, but there is certainly a window of time to do this in the beginning of next year, possibly the first six months of next year, if there's the will to do it, if there's an agreement to do it. I think once you slip past that, the challenges you get into American domestic politics where you get into the primary cycle for presidential politics, that tends to play to the extremes. I think what you don't want to see happen is this thing drags so far into next year that it begins to get wound up into American political cycles spinning up again. My name is Matt Field with NHK Japan Broadcasting, and this question is for Assistant Secretary Shear. You mentioned that you'll be going to Tokyo and they're unveiling a set of guidelines, and I was hoping that you would share more details on that, and particularly if you could touch upon collective self-defense in Japan, that'd be great. Thank you. We certainly welcomed the Japanese cabinet's decision to review the collective self-defense issue. We welcome any opportunity to strengthen the alliance and for Japan to play a stronger role in the alliance. I'll be going to Tokyo with Assistant Secretary for East Asia, Danny Russell. We will there hold a session, we will chair for the U.S. side a session of the SSC as well as the SDC, and it's our expectation that we will release the interim report on the guidelines, not the guidelines, the revised guidelines themselves, but an interim report on the guidelines which will sort of map the way, help us map the way forward for the ultimate revision of the 1996 guidelines. And for those that don't know those acronyms, SSC and SDC? SSC is security, subcommittee, SDC is the security defense committee. Sorry, I didn't mean to put you, that's not fair. I mean you should see the book that he got when he went to the Pentagon of acronyms, I think it was probably two encyclopedias. The gentleman in the back here, sorry to put you on the spot. My name is Takashi Oshima from the Asahi Department. This is kind of a follow-up question, but from your perspective, what is the most important aspect or issues in this defense guideline review process? And secondly, how do you think, what is the most important aspect or issue from the United States perspective in this whole defense guideline review process? And secondly, how do you, how do you think this review will contribute to the regional security? Thank you. I'm going to answer the second part of your question first by saying a strong U.S.-Japan alliance is a foundation, is a keystone for overall regional security and stability. That's been the case for decades. I expect it will be the case for decades in the future. And to keep that alliance strong and vibrant and up to date, we periodically review the guidelines and that is our aim in doing so on this round. Right. The gentleman right back here in the blue shirt. William Kim, V.O.A. I have a question to Panagwan's architect. Deploying a third missile defense the barrier into South Korea now is pretty controversial and not okay. So would you clarify what Panagwan's clear stance on this issue? And additionally, our Asia Pacific commander, Admiral Locklear said last week that the North Korea's military is taking steps to field a raw-demobile ICBM that could threat the U.S. and also Washington based NGO Dory and North Korea said earlier this week that North Korea has completed a major upgrade of its main rocket site. So would you evaluate how about this issue? Is this a modern threat actually? Thanks. We're always concerned about developments in and the expansion of a North Korean threat to stability on the Korean Peninsula. And we are always discussing that very closely with our ROK counterparts, including their developments in the missile area. We've made no decision on THAAD on the Korean Peninsula and we've not discussed THAAD deployment with our ROK counterparts. But we do discuss generally the issue of the missile threat to South Korea and we look forward to working with our ROK ally to meet any potential missile threat to Korea or to the region. I want to inject a question. I was involved in a couple of the meetings while Prime Minister Modi was here from India. And I have to say the energy around that visit was incredible. I think a lot of us who work on these set of issues think the new sort of power shot is coming over the South Pole, over Australia and Indonesia and Southeast Asia and looking at both oceans, the Indian and the Pacific. What are the prospects for India to be a player now under Modi in this new emerging security architecture across the Indo-Pacific? I think Prime Minister Modi's visit to Washington was very successful. Those of you who have read the joint statement have probably noticed that there was a very strong defense component in that joint statement. The two sides agreed to renew the now 10-year-old defense framework and we will be addressing that issue with our Indian colleagues very soon at senior levels. We held the first round of the Defense Trade and Technology Initiative just before Prime Minister Modi arrived. This is an effort to increase our technology, defense technology cooperation with the Indians under Secretary of Defense for Acquisitions and Technology. Frank Kendall is very interested in pursuing this with the Indian side. I think and he will be visiting India in the near term. I think this is a very important aspect of our relationship and I think we are ready to move forward on it. We also discussed the desirability of increasing our overall military-to-military cooperation including in exercises and I would look for a stronger U.S.-India malabar exercise in the future perhaps with Japanese participation as well. These are all very positive developments in U.S.-India defense relations and we will be looking to carry forward on the momentum of the very successful visit here by Prime Minister Modi. From ASEAN we have tried for a long time to keep India engaged and India is a participant in the East Asia Summit and Prime Minister Modi will have his first outing at EAS next month in Myanmar and India plays a very important role from the ASEAN perspective. We bring them in economically, politically, strategic discussions even before Prime Minister Modi took office. They have been there for some time. They are in the ARF, they are in the ADMM plus. Each one of the structures has them as a key player. It is how I think that the general expectation is while they will play a role in the region that Prime Minister Modi will focus on domestic economic issues as all political leaders do so but we encourage them to continue to play an active role throughout the region. I will just say very briefly, Senator McCain and I were in New Delhi in July and had the opportunity to meet with Prime Minister Modi just after he came into office and I think we were certainly struck that there is a lot of opportunity here. There is a lot of opportunity for the U.S. and India to regain some altitude in a partnership that I think over the past few years has lost quite a bit of it. Hopefully the meeting here, the visit here, is a good first step in that regard. I think our hope and sort of a hope that is shared in the Congress is that we will be really ambitious, that we will have this sort of genuine strategic consultation about how we view the world, what we want the world order to look like and really sort of bring it back to those kinds of questions. Obviously, the sort of domestic priorities that the Ambassador mentioned are going to be very important for India. The U.S. can make a huge contribution on that and really be sort of a partner of choice for India. But I think when it comes to the issues we are talking about here, one of the things that we are also very pleased to see is the extent to which India is building its relationships with other countries in the region. The India-Japan relationship is obviously the one that has got a lot of focus and we see that as hugely valuable and hoping, kind of building on frankly what Evan had to say today, that the U.S., Japan, India can really sort of build that trilateral out, really put strategic content into it and elevate it. I think that would be an enormous positive signal. Thank you. Well, we started the day with one of the real advocates and practitioners of developing modern Asian architecture, former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, and he talked a lot about constructive realism and a sense that the key for him in all of this discussion of regionalism and regional architecture is really the need for countries to find a common narrative that focused on public goods that you could use to build confidence. And I found throughout the day that whether we are talking about economics or energy or security issues, that the panelists in general agreed with Kevin that that's where you, that's where the progress is going to be made. And I think I hope you'll join me in thanking this panel and thanking everyone who put the concert, put the program together. Thank you.


start from the beginning how much are you up in the train at the high of the option chain work with this morning I don't know what I was first thing this morning but the moment I'm up 805 I was 1100 a few minutes ago well you should know where you're getting out of this before you take it and if you did add yesterday which I told you to do so look you made it a better trade that was good advice I'm glad you did it but either way when you did that you should have know where am I gonna get out of this so next time decide where you're gonna get it out either a price point or money or something yes well the target is normally the strike price isn't it yes it hasn't hit it's hit 264.41 that's pretty close well it's not it's not 265 is it I mean it's close I mean six hundred dollars because I mentioned this in the class over the weekend I said I have a trader that panics when he's up you're the only person that I know that panics when they're at money decision because in the moment you're up you panic you're panicking right now you're up $800 you'd be happy this trade isn't gonna get away from you today so relax whether you take it out with 800 900 a thousand 725 you're up and this trade is not going to go away from you today so relax don't panic now look and see if you want it if you want to swing for the fences even though you were gonna kill this immediately and I told you to add to it and try to hold a little bit longer that was good advice if you hold it tomorrow and I'm not saying you do but let's just look what would you be up what do you think it'd be up if it got up to the high which was if it got up to 266 if it got up to 266 what would you be up it's it's hard to put a figure on it because last night this option it was virtually it was virtually break even right it fell it fell back just at the close and that's when I added when it fell back right but I mean so it's hard to put it's hard to put a figure on it Melissa because it's so volatile so much more today is all of us get to 265 by Friday people play options for a day people play options for two days people play options out because people who just bought this today don't you understand that's why now you have this move so people say oh it looks like it is gonna get there and so now you've got that now you've got the interest so it's not it's not a surprise every time it looks like it's gonna get closer to the number or through the number people are there's more interest in it it's gonna it's gonna run up that creates the volatility so you're worried about time and I'm saying wait a minute it's gonna you're gonna get this is gonna go that's why I said you yesterday you did a good thing adding now I'm just trying to look at this here I mean I have the yeah I have the cheaper ones obviously which is why I got quantity yes worth about and again I'm figuring in time like 50 cents more and I'm just being very conservative here so what would that mean for your profit this is an estimate 50 cents more what I pay I paid 30 cents is my average no fifth oh right well it must have been it was about 11 if you say 1100 I was up no this morning for you to exit what was the exit here I'll look at that what was the exit of the high what was the exit of the high this morning option train yeah that's just a problem I don't know how I can I don't think mine displays the the option high price all I have it listed in my option list is bid midpoint and well I mean it must have been it must have been nearly 48 probably I mean looking at this now I mean it's sitting here at 43 is the mid 60 60 contracts wow you have 6000 shares yep okay I'm up 685 now I average is 30 you seem quite confident this isn't going to pull back no I mean I'm telling option change it's going to come around again you'll have a chance today to do it it's only 10 15 in the morning this trade isn't going to reverse today that's why I'm saying relax if you if you had gotten out before we got on the mic I wouldn't have had a problem with that that would have been good trade $1,100 I wouldn't have a problem with you getting out here I'm just saying that first of all going forward you need to know where you're going to get out of the trade before before it gets to some number of the new panic that you need to get rid of the panic stop the panic well I mean I'm looking at the chart I'm looking at the weekly chart I mean he stands out a mile we have no resistance on the weekly chart until that major high and he's saying if you knock it down to the to daily there's nothing there's nothing stopping it okay which was 30,000 shares you would make $4200 what do you think you should do no don't I'm asking you seriously relax yourself you're gonna all right all right seriously looking at the chart and I can't see anything that's going to stop this and hold it back okay I would run up and let it go over the high which I mean the higher on this bar is 265 93 it's nearly 266 worth 50 cents more than at the high today I'm estimating conservatively it could be worth more it probably will be it'll be a dollar through the strike but I'm figuring time value so I'm estimating that so based on that what do you want to do you risk getting out of this with not as much of a gain as you had at one point today or even now but still a gain unless for the only thing that will ruin this trade is if the market gap down tomorrow morning and I'm not saying that that could happen or couldn't happen I don't think it does but who who the heck knows shut the market apps down tomorrow morning which who knows if it could happen or not it doesn't look like it will but it could and you need to know that if it would the trade will be ruined it would be ruined and you wouldn't you would either get out break even or small game or small loss yeah I don't think the market gaps down huge even if the gaps on tomorrow but any gap down through under today would create this messing up the whole entire thing is and it's not gonna look like it's gonna get to 265 again by Friday and I wouldn't hold it till Friday unless you're up a lot but I'm telling you that if this continues tomorrow then based on that you would be up to at 50 cents more and you'd make $4200 then then how would you feel how would you feel about continuing doing options how would you feel about continuing into the earning season would day trading again would that make your life enormously better if you could make $4,000 in this trade yes yes so then what do you want to do well I'm just saying I'm possibly the market could gap down tomorrow but honestly I believe that you should hold the trade you need a really big winner like this you did the right thing adding I think this looks great I don't think that this reverses and again you're taking a chance but all the other things here look very very strong the spies at the highs you know and the only reason the cues are down is because of Apple and I can't find any reason for Apple trading down but again Apple so strong it doesn't matter anyways so the spies not go over has it it's still red today well nothing I mean it's obviously different market and it's a small amount of stocks anyway I mean again the only way that we don't get over the high this week in the spy or the diamonds is if we get down I think you should try to be out of this trade by Thursday but I'm glad you added and I glad you held it and you turned a small trade into a big trade even if you get out of it today so you got two decisions here this is gonna go back up to the high look it's heading up there right again right now you're gonna get what is it up right now now you're up more again what is it up yeah I'm up 895 at the minute so I mean like I said $900 900 bucks you take it and you were if you did this consistently I'd say take it out today and bang it bang it bang it but I know you need a good win and I honestly think the chart looks great but you gotta know you gotta know you have to know that if you hold this that if you could lose the whole thing and how are you gonna what do you want to do and I guess what I'm saying is you really should have decided this yesterday but when this trade is good and everything's going it you panic and you gotta stop doing that well I'm also watching the town sales and there's more green than there is red so which is obviously more positive it's moving it's not falling back is it I told you you stop panicking I said we can talk you got to live one does not want to let the money slip out of one's fingers no and everybody in the room I took us everybody else to take it out so it's up to you it's up to you yes well I mean you could sort of split difference and say right I'll hold it into the close today couldn't I the consistency unless there's overriding factors that tell you that the trade is good to hold like it's swash or like it like it did like you got the market with you're something that and but it's hard to say that because it's the market trade but I'm saying you if you have overriding factors the problem was in the past every trade that was looking good you basically wanted to hold and then that was ridiculous because you you shouldn't hold every trade is what I'm saying so this looks good it's run up for two days it's finally getting the interest now which it hasn't had it hasn't had really until start of late yesterday into today but you know it's breaking out it's breaking out so you know the only thing that I caution you on is if we gap down tomorrow which is the only thing that would ruin the trade the trade will be ruined and so conservative people would take the trade out with a thousand bucks or more looks like it's gonna get over the high here now it's gonna get out it's gonna make it here this is gonna be worth more than 1100 today there it goes yeah there were in fact there were a lot of sales at the base here it goes here it goes what's it worth now how much you up now 1495 trade size fed like you can trade size but you got to make the right decision so this is a test what are you gonna do here's another idea you could get out of $750 worth of it now and you could get out of half of it now and you could own 30 contracts because you have so much up till tomorrow there's another idea I'll do that okay I'll take the the safe position I'm not saying get out of 265 I'm saying today the problem I have is knowing that it's the right time because obviously when something turns it's too late because the option chain reflects that I know but getting out at the perfect price you didn't do a good trade that was that money you're not gonna get out of high this so get 76 or 267 or 270 you will not exit there I can guarantee you that I'm telling you right now you're never gonna get out of the high and along you're never gonna get in at the low for the price it's not your job your job is take the good solid trades this is a good solid trade and you listened to me yesterday when I said you could be more aggressive and you didn't perfect if you get out today and make 1400 bucks and tomorrow you could have made 4,000 because in the past you haven't and then the next trade the next trade you would help too long like Nike Nike the exit was yesterday that was good advice that's it exactly I waited till the following day it's not followed through the following day and that's another my fingers burnt so obviously the safest thing to look at it everyone or this one or this one no Nike chart does not look like this is a different chart every gap is different every chart is different you're trying to apply the same method and finger pointing it there's different things that rate differently and there's different things happening and that's why I said ask me which I'm trying to help you here but the point is though that either way you shouldn't hold every trade because you're never gonna get out of the high some trades warrant that some don't but you're doing your money management should be consistent with with everything else when you're killing them which I don't think it has that and and and either way here in my professional opinion here I believe this trade continues but I don't want you to yell at me if it ends up gapping down tomorrow morning because I can't I can't I can't determine what China's gonna do or Trump so I'm just like I'm just telling you this looks fabulous I think this has a one two three run up the only way that I would get out of this full position today if you want to get out of half that's your call the only way to get out of the full position today is if it goes to some sick crazy number like 266 if this gets over the high today then for sure get out of the whole thing but if this actually goes up and this is good here now like I said if you want to get out of half this up to you I wouldn't answer the whole trade today I really think that it continues but that's it is but obviously I mean like the profit now it's down to a thousand dollars it's just back down to a thousand dollars again solution to my situation and where I am at the moment is to say right I'm up a thousand dollars I'll take it and you take it you book it and you know you have a thousand dollars don't you yes but I also I'm also considering what the chant is telling me and this is the problem because I've always had this problem I look at the chart I think that looks like it's going higher and yet it doesn't go yeah but sometimes you say the chart's higher so that's that okay and I told you yesterday get out of Nike this is it okay so you don't know ask me you were making arbitrary decisions about things saying this looks good and this looks bad and this looks good you said Baba was gonna do XYZ and that was ridiculous that was a good trade and you missed it and so you know I and I must say you should have held Baba I think Baba was a 1-2 but and then the fact that that continued you know it's neither here nor there I don't I don't think anyone should have held that down when they had the drop off when it did I think that was a 1-24 hour trade and I think that was perfect but that did continue to for the the third day down but anyways you're you're trying to apply everything to the same thing in the sense that again you're going you're trying to get out of the high of every trade for just it's impossible it's just ridiculous it's not right so if this pulls back and I'm up 500 profit it pulls back so far would you say right kill it today get out no why would you want a $500 would you not take the money because that's what I'm saying you have to decide what you're going to do this trade today will close before 4 o'clock with a profitable you will be up I don't know I do what you will be up but you have all day to get out of this trade with money whether it's 1,459 dollars and 22 cents or 524 dollars and 62 cents it's a profitable trade if you're that worried about it coming down to be worth five six hundred then the answer is easy you're too much in fear about it not continuing then get out now and stop panicking I don't want you to sit here all day and panic when you're up money you have any idea how crazy this is there are this is why I mentioned you in the class there are people that lose all the time and they they panic and with good reason they're down money all the time you panic you're the only person I know that panics when the right or you don't take something because you think it has to pull back and you've added the trades that you should not have done now I told you to do this that's a different story right okay well I am I am sitting here in the trade it's watching the woman it bar it's just jumped just get on the woman it bar a little bit so which obviously indicates strength so I don't particularly want to kill the trade do I don't feel a good trade yeah but you won't do that would you because that's just no good is it you can't have white people say take it don't take it you are looking at the screen and I have that as the target because I can't see anything else that's in its way to stop it going I'm taking your advice and I'm going to sit in it and I'm gonna and I'm going to look at it again at five to four I'm deciding if I'm gonna take it or not and if it's up so much money then I mean I can't I don't want to let it go over into tomorrow I think it might be pushing it a little bit and it might if it doesn't it's not in the money it will lose more well we're in a volatile time at the moment we were trying to this time that's why if you get it you could or thing into tomorrow because the chart looks great knowing that you could make over four grand or more and you're okay with the amount you risk if the whole trade goes bus which you should be taking in anyways or you get out half today with the money protect yourself and let the rest run up which means you'd make about two grand in the other half and that would still go be a good trade and so then you'd make 750 plus these two you'd make $2,700 so how much is the difference between 42 and 2700 because if this runs up and you get out of half at 750 and I go for the risk I would literally go for the risk if it's if it's going to go for it I mean I spent until it was 1800 dollars if it if it all goes on me so that's how much I've got on the table I'm going to I said yesterday was the exit on night gate you need to know that not every trade you shouldn't hold so there's no reason to think it won't continue unless some travesty or news happens overnight which certainly could let me just look here and see what economic data is out tomorrow morning Thursday Thursday mornings a bunch of stuff Philly Fed stuff like that so the low low stuff tomorrow morning nothing on Friday so I don't see any any anything that would move the market in either direction as far as that goes it would just really be tariff news right yeah yes so I will hold it I'm saying I think you should watch this today check it but don't panic because you're up you've got all day to day to decide to get out of a positive if you want $1,500 is a great trade if you think it may make a big difference to go into earning season with a big profitable trade like this that will help you day trade and do more options and really feel like you're getting back on track here before earning season in a positive direction then I think it's worth you holding it because it'd be a big training it could be over five grand you've got to leave it you mean honestly I'm saying 266 but if we get anywhere near that we're gonna go over the high and that could happen in two days it's not out of the water that the it's not completely ridiculous to think that this could go to 267 268 it's gonna it's gonna go to it's gonna go to 270 I said that three weeks ago and Barney I was right so you can see here now this is going and it could happen very quickly because the more that it goes the more interest will come in so the buying really started to get take hold of the option chain today that's a good sign that's a good sign I'm saying it's a good sign for even the one that expires on Friday yes yes yes okay I'm glad you took my advice watch it I'm around here if you want to email me you know watch it right okay thank you Melissa all right yes thanks bye