It's like what Uncle Ben said from Spider-Man, you know, with great power comes great responsibility. And we have a huge platform as pro athletes. For me, I've just always had the feeling in my heart, man, if I can do it, I'm going to do it. Man, it was dope. It was dope, man. It was cold. It was cold, but the energy was hot out there. And it was a great time to learn football, play some Xbox and spend time with the kids. Top five, no order. And of course, not including myself. You've got to throw Khalil and Aaron Donald in there. Man, you've got some of you guys. You've got to throw Gerald McCoy in there. You've got that Melvin Ingram in there. And I like Jaylen Ramsey in there too. Super Bowl prediction, I like...you can't go against Tom Brady and the Patriots, but I am. Because I'm going to go with Leib and Todd Gurley and all my buddies. You know, I know how it feels to win Super Bowl and I know how life-changing and magical that is. That was guys that experienced that. And MVP, I'm going with Gerald Everett, you know, number 81, tight end. You know, he's going to get a lot of balls. You know, if he can get in the end zone two or three times, go for over 200 is his. I'm here with Old Spice, again, promoting the new fresher collection. The fresher collection brings you products with real ingredients for real benefits. Like the moisturized body wash. Moisturized has shea butter in it and like exfoliate, exfoliate has charcoal in it. So what they've done is really evened up the shower space for men. Women have dominated this area for a long time. Now we have products that are just for us.


The following is a presentation of TFNN. The TFNN Bull Bear Training Hour. Every training day, live at 10 a.m. Eastern. Call now. Toll free at<PHONE_NUMBER> or internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER>. The TFNN Bull Bear Training Hour. Now, Tommy and Tommy O'Brien. Good morning, everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien, coming to you live from TFNN headquarters in St. Petersburg, Florida. Tom's going to join us after the first break, starting things off. We have markets in red territory. Dow Jones off 115 points right now, trading 27,154. Got S&Ps 10 points in the red, trading at 3,008. NASDAQ right now, 51 points in the red. That's 6-tenths of a percent for the NASDAQ, trading at 8,270. Russell, 6 points in the red, trading down, excuse me, 4-tenths percent, trading at 15,74. As we start things off, we're going to take a look at the VIX real quick this morning. Negative action in the market, seeing a little bit of a spike in the VIX, but everything's relative. 11,69. We were at this morning in that volatility index, 12,91, sitting there currently. Let's take a quick look at some of the markets this morning. You got gold, quite a little volatility in gold, early this morning up at 1432. You have an ECB decision, no rate cut over there for Draghi and Europe.  Crude oil, currently trading $56.49, was almost up there at $57 briefly this morning, and then jumping over to the indices, pulling back pretty sharply. S&Ps, pretty remarkable. We're up there at 3,027. You trade all the way down to 3,005 this morning over about the span from 8 a.m. until 10, getting a little bit of a bounce. NASDAQ 100, pretty similar action in that as well, pulling back on that ECB decision and press conference and Dow 30 as well. With that in mind, it's earning season, Tesla shares down dramatically this morning. We also get Google and Amazon after the bell to talk about it. Let's talk to our man, Kevin Hinks from Thinkorswim, TD Ameritrade, fast market folks right after this program every day. Kevin, Alex, do a great job from 11 till 12, and quite a week we have. We'll see what we're gonna talk about today. Kevin Hinks, good morning. Tommy, thanks for having me on, buddy. Thanks to, thanks for coming on, man. So, what's on your mind this morning, Kevin? Quite an earnings week so far, of course, and then it doesn't stop tonight with two big giants.  Facebook actually pretty positive in terms of the financial numbers that they put out, but they have so many other things going on that remember, we tell our viewers, regardless of good earnings, bad earnings, you gotta look at the whole picture and Facebook pays off one FTC fine, releases earnings and announces there's another FTC investigation. So, there's gonna be a cloud over Facebook for the ongoing future, but that being said, all they do is make money, Tom. That being, the other thing that I think really caught everyone's eye today was the absolute whiplash in the bond market this morning. Mario Draghi came out early this morning, made some very dovish comments. Again, didn't move on rates, left rates unchanged, but came out very dovish. Bonds rally there up 18, 19 ticks and then kaboom, durable goods hit at 730 Chicago time, 830 Eastern and a two handle on durable goods and down the bonds went. And so, this has really been a pretty big, that's a massive move from up 18, 19 ticks to down a point on the 30 bond now down 25 ticks. That is massive. Yeah, and those bonds man, it's pretty remarkable. Next week we come in of course to our Fed meeting, which we really haven't even begun to talk about with everything else we have going on on this week. So, Kevin, I just wanna talk about real briefly the expected one day move that we're always pulling up on these charts as we come into earnings. So, you have Amazon and Alphabet today and I just pulled up Amazon. So, Amazon right now is trading at 1988, it's down 12 bucks today and we have the expected MMM of $67. So, can you talk about a little bit what that really demonstrates for listeners? We've talked about it before, but it's so cool when we come into these earnings, that number. On the fingers from platform, there's no way to call this up, Tommy. It comes up automatically when the implied volatility of the front expiration rises above the implied volatility of the second expiration. All it does for this number to appear, because that says, that tells you that there's an event coming. Some type of raised level of implied volatility is causing an event. Amazon, you see it right now, you see the market maker move looking about $67.78 as I look at it right now. Google has about a $47 move. Remember, all these companies that we're talking about here have earnings after the bell. Intel, Starbucks, before the opening tomorrow, Twitter and McDonald's. So there's a lot of names, but all you have to do is look under things from platform, and it's not just earnings, Tommy. Remember, this is an event. Pretty cool. So any time that the front month implied volatility rises above the second expiration, that market maker move will appear, and the definition of that is a one day expected move. If you look to the right hand column for the implied volatility, that's the implied volatility for that series and the expected move up or down. That's that week or that month. This is a one day expected move. Yeah, pretty cool, man. And I actually never knew that that's how that showed up. I kind of understood it in terms of what it meant, but I didn't know how it was generated in terms of the implied volatility, the front end versus the second end. Pretty cool. I mean, I'm always looking at that thing, and it's always staggering, man, in terms of the moves that we can get when you look at, you know, when you're trading options, folks, right? I mean, you gotta know the premium you're paying. That's a great way just to understand what kind of volatility the market is pricing. And if you're looking for a move, you better be looking for a pretty dramatic move in Amazon to the tune of $60 or $70 in either direction, if you're playing a volatility. Exactly, if you were going to trade, or in this case, be by that front month implied volatility, you're betting, if you're buying that or long it, that that move is gonna be bigger than $67. Now, here's what I tell our viewers all the time. That's not the answer to the question, that market maker move. That's part of the question. The answer to the question is when the earnings event comes out and the stock moves, that's the answer, right? But this is setting up for what the expectations are based on the supply and demand of options. That is what that number is reflecting, the one day market maker move. I love it, man, because it's the quickest way to quantify whether you talk about it, you have to have your market bias in terms of what you think's gonna happen, and then you have the way that you can best profit off that number. And it's so cool to know the exact dollar amount that the market's pricing in for volatility. You wanna buy volatility? Well, you better be expected right now, $68 in movement in either direction on Amazon, which is a mammoth move for a company like that, even at 2000, that's more than 3% you're talking about, on their numbers coming out, and you get to make that decision and figure out whether you're right or wrong when those numbers come out. I mean, sometimes, Kevin's just remarkable that we see such dramatic moves in stocks, and because we pull this up, this number up more often now, I'll say, man, that's right in line, actually. That's not even a bigger move than the market was pricing in that you would have had to pay for. Exactly, exactly. I mean, people look, oh my goodness, something's down 2%, well, the expected move was 4%. Yeah, I think in Snapchat, Kevin. Inside the numbers. I think in Snapchat, it might have been like $2, I mean, just massive numbers percentage-wise on some of those equities. Folks, we got Amazon, you see it right there, $68 one way or the other tonight, the market's expecting. You have Alphabet up there. Kevin, have a great, what day is it, man? Is it Wednesday? It is Thursday. We're not gonna talk to you. Have a great weekend, man. We look forward to the show. Always a pleasure, guys. Thanks for having me. You as well, Kevin. Take care, man. We'll be right back, folks. 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TFNN.com, educating investors. Call now, toll free at 1-877-927-6648 and internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER>. Welcome folks, appreciate you're growling and prowling with us out here. We have the Dow Industries down 79, NASDAQ off 56, SAPs off 10 and a half, gold contract down $6 trading at 1417 we got silver down 13 cents, $16.49 an ounce, light sweet crude, $56.45 cents, that's up 57 cents. Now light sweet crude, couldn't hold price yesterday. Yeah, saw. Huge draw, couldn't hold price. Notes and bonds, you got a big reversal here. Ten year note, down 11 ticks, $12705, 30 year off 27 at 153.31, King dollar, King dollar down 177 ticks, 97.290, the euro's at 111, the yen is at 108.48 and the pound is at 124 and we have monsoons in Florida. We sure do, man. Welcome to the show. We're both lucky we made it. Yeah, it's man, the rain we've been getting. It is remarkable, just be safe out there if you're in the Florida area because man, it is no joke. Not often do you really feel like, whoa, what am I driving through? You can't even see. It's one of these. It would be akin to those nor'easter snow storms for those some of the year and when you get rained that hard it really is, you can't see. So, you heard the conversation, you were here with Kevin Hicks, right?  It's going to be an expected move. It just went up a solid 50 cents or so since we've been chatting about it as in it was coming in at 67.80 or something. So, you'll see this tick around all day. So, that was pretty cool, right? Talking about the implied volatility for the front month when it exceeds, I didn't know that. I didn't know that either. It exceeds the second month. Yes, I didn't know how the algorithm put up because you'll see that this will go away on another stock once it's out. Like what just came out of Facebook, for instance, right? Yeah, nothing, right? $3, you're talking about a percent and a half. The give and take, that's going to be your front end no volatility, no event as Kevin was saying. So, pretty cool. And what was the other one? Google. That's a big one, too. Yeah, with 47 bucks. Which would be like 4%, 4.3, 4.2%, something like that for a company that mammoth size. That's quite a move. Must never. So, yeah, the ECB out here this morning, they stayed flat. That being said though, they have a lot of different things inside of that number that the market's trying to decipher right now. And that being said, guess what? The euro rejected 1102 and the low out here was 1107. So, the low we're talking about there was February, was it? No. May 23rd. May 23rd.  The dollar, you have just the opposite. So, let me see if the dollar made the 715 number. DX, no, no, DXU. You're in pain here or something, yeah. There we go. Okay, so. Sam, what's going on there? Yeah, where's the currency, okay. So, dollar index made it to 650. The high 715, 97, 715. Okay. Made it to 650. Then gave it up in spades. Yeah. Now, what's going to get interesting here, excuse me folks, is that what we also had is that the gold contract gave it up. Now, normally as the euro would go higher and the dollar would go lower, bottom line is that you'd have gold go higher. Now, gold was higher and gave it up in spades. We went from 1434, we've hit 1415. That being said, guess what? I think you're going to see a rejection of lower price out here because we just got a lot of moving pots. What we don't have yet is the yen is going the wrong way, meaning the yen is getting weaker and gold loves that yen to get stronger. So, the yen's up 29 ticks. Big moving pots though, man, no doubt. Inside the Dow industrials, we take a look at the strength versus the weakness. Boeing. Yeah, exactly. There's some big movies inside this Dow right here. We got, Yeah, triple M with earnings too, right? Yeah. You get, Boeing's putting 100 negative points in, Goldman 22 Dow 12, so it's not that bad actually on the Dow side. It's just Boeing, right? It really is. It is. Look at triple M, yeah. On the upside, you get 3M putting 39 positive points. United Technologies 20, Merck 7. Now, inside the NDX 100, this is going to be, you get, well, actually, yeah, it's, oh, look at, oh, this is the, that is such a, this is aligned technology, man. It's going on. Oh yeah, this is, what's this? This is the second gap down. It's coming on Wednesday to Thursday haircut. Yeah, this was down $70 last night. Yeah. And when you take a look at this, what you're going to see is that last time they, come on, no, that's last year. October, you went from 337 to 203. We've just gone from 290 to 207, but you can see sticking out like a sore thumb that high volume low. 170, it's coming at you. Okay. Tesla. So Tesla has a couple of different things going on. Each one too. I think the biggest one is the, I guess the aspect with the coal found leaving. Okay. Tesla's down 36 bucks now. That's not as bad as it could be. You know? Yeah, yeah. I wonder what the expected move on that was yesterday. That's going to be one that usually has a big one. Yeah. For sure. I don't think it would have been $36 though. That is percentage wise, 14% just mammoth. So I just pulled up the article, and that's what they're talking about. Co-founder surprise exit. So J.B. Straubel is leaving CTO job after 15 years. He was there before Musk even got involved. Okay. Yeah. So, you know, and it would be different folks if this was only the first one, but Musk has lost a lot of executives in the past six months. Yeah. It's a constant turnover, right? So there's this gentleman 15 years before he was there. So weak results and his departure. Yeah. Understanding that bid, excuse me, undermining must bid to kind of make some money and get some stability in that. Yes, stability. Yeah. Because there's no doubt that he, Musk himself has so many different things going. Those foundations are important. Yes. He is not going to be the one to provide stability to that company. Right. He's the genius. You can give that, but yeah, you need a details-oriented stability, man. Yeah. Let's see what's going on. Well, PayPal's down at seven bucks, 114. Let's see what's going on with this stock here. PTC. I don't even know what it is. PTC. Okay. So technology, software and services, company primarily used by discrete manufacturers design, operate and maintain complex products. This thing is toasted, man. Quite a company, even after the decline, it's still an $8.6 billion company. Yeah. So not a small guy on the block. No. On the block. Particularly, never even heard of it. Right. I mean, sometimes he's interested in a company, especially if you're dealing business to business. Yeah. You know, consumers, retail, you just don't hear anything about them in their mammoth. Right. And this is going to be a problem. You can see that it's been a consolidation. You had a high out here of $107 last October. Now you're breaking the whole consolidation and you're going to have some volume on a monthly. Can we go into the news for them? I just want to see what the headline is. Downgrades across the board. So yeah. Downgrade, downgrade, downgrade. Yeah, this is the news too. Oh, here we go, yeah. So let's see. Number wise, oh, they're in a loss now. Third quarter loss, they're looking for 13 cents. Revenue, 295 million. So looking for fiscal year earnings, 173, 178. The consensus had been 180. Yeah. Got some downdraft here. Yeah, I assume this. And we get natural gas coming up, right? We sure do, yeah. Natural gas, so. Let's just see what the market is as we come into that number. So we got oil yesterday, right? Yeah. And let me see if I can pull it up. Commodities, come on, natural gas. Where are we trading at? Natural gas, looking at the 224 we're trading at. We've had a little run. Look at that run, actually. Man, this contract, watch out. 224, we'll get those numbers when we get back. It's that right there, folks. Tom and I are coming right back. Dow, Dow's down 109, now it's except 70, S&P's at 14, come right back. Hi, folks, Tom O'Brien here. If you'd like to get my daily newsletter and market insights, then now is a great time to sign up for a 30-day free trial. Every morning by 9.30, I send out my morning letter to subscribers with market commentary on a variety of markets, currencies, and commodities to keep investors up to date on the day's trading action. Included in market insights are specific buy and sell recommendations for stocks, ETFs, and even options, which stops and price targets included for every trade in my newsletter. If you'd like to try my newsletter at risk-free for 30 days, then head over to the front page of TFNN and you'll find market insights under Trading Newsletters. 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This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. 36 BCF. I'll tell you what you're looking for, right? That's a medium, right? Yeah, right in line with pretty much estimates, I think. 36 billion cubic feet. Stockpile's rising. To see how that is hitting the market, a little bit of a sell-off. There's so much natural gas, man. There is. We'll jump back to the second. I saw the total stockpile. It's like 2.24 trillion cubic feet, something. So, 222 right now, pulling back from some of those gains that we got this morning. Dropped a couple pennies pretty quickly. And let me just see. Especially for the, you know, it's not a surprise. Yes, right, right. You wouldn't, sometimes you just might see that tick around exactly where it's trading when you come in exactly in line. Yeah, and so total inventory is 2.57 trillion cubic feet we got in natural gas. I wonder how much like that is, like, in the context of, does it heat, you know, the United States for like a week, a month, a year? Wrap your head around it. Yeah, what is that? Yeah, what do you say? Like, how far is it from here to the moon, right? Well, how many feet is it?  When you say 2.57, 2.57 can't even say it. Trillion cubic feet of natural gas. What are we talking here? Is that the side, you know, is that like natural gas the size of the state of Texas? It might be. I don't know. I know, I know, I know. Yeah, so one more check back. Let's see. Sitting there at 222. So we'll see how it trades here. Pretty wild, man. Yeah. So there's no doubt we got lots of numbers after the close out here today. Pretty cool. Every day now. Pretty cool. I mean, Amazon and Google, man, you might as well have the entire internet talking about how business is going with those two coming out. So Amazon's going to be looking for $62.5 billion and $556 to the bottom line. OK. Google, and that's going to be looking $30 billion and $11.19 to the bottom line. Not bad. $30.8 billion. Yeah, I don't forget the $8.8. I know, that's an $800 million miss. Over 90 days. Seriously, and somehow it turns into a decimal point on their balance sheet. Yeah. Actually, CMG, I want to see this because. How's it holding up? Well, that's, and my point is, is that that's the, you know, when you look at this a monthly, this is going to be important to look at, folks, because the monthly bar here is at $758. OK. You know, because that's what, you know, that was the down draft before. And this is 100% move or a move. Most times you do 100% move or a move. You're going to get a pullback. I mean, it doesn't have to be down to the lows, but, you know. It could just be some natural breathing. Yeah. You just went from, what, 270, 280 up to 77 something? Huge. Yeah. Look at this. This is quite a move. This is pretty cool. Look at this. So Bill Miller's hedge fund surges 46% riding Amazon Bitcoin wave. OK. So this guy here, let's read it a little. Legendary investor, Bill Miller is bringing his winning touch to hedge fund business. The fund he launched three years ago gains 46% in the first half of the year, according to investor documents. That's heavy bet. It is. Miller has found success by following the same playbook he used during his three decade. Listen to this. This guy had quite a record. He had one of the biggest records out yet. Three decade run at Lake Mesa, picking beaten down securities that traded a large discount to their intrinsic value. Among his top picks were Amazon. A stock, some say, is undervalued even with double-digit grain gain. ADT, the security system, bullish wages on, I'm surprised he's betting on Bitcoin. This is a little bit different. So let's just look at it. Bullish wages on Bitcoin and Avon products also led to gains through the first half, according to document. Miller has been along a fan of cryptocurrency. Reached 18 months high in June, surging 13,000. Avon agreeing to be acquired by a rival beauty company. He thinks the current environment looks positive for stocks. Yeah. So this guy, I don't know what the exact, we can pull it up. Oh, there it is right there. Miller gained fame, beating the S&P for 15 straight years when he ran the Lake Mesa and Valeo Trust. He ran to trouble during the financial crisis, losing 55% in 2008, triggering redemptions. I mean, that's pretty much on the market loss, so. It did. He had an amazing run. It doesn't say like if your big loss year is when you just go down 50% when the market does. That's unfortunate. But guess what, if you're going to be making 46% the first half of this year, you're going to have some risk if the market pulls back 50% in his business model, where you're looking for value in equity stocks. There's no doubt. That's pretty impressive. I'm glad to see that. And the cryptos, man. Yeah, rocking and rolling. That's, you know, what's so intriguing about that, I'd love to get that kind of, I'd love to understand why he's into the cryptos. Because he was always, he's a fundamental guy, and he was always feel, which is like I said, he's buying value. So when he was buying something, he would have a fundamental reason. They said specifically intrinsic value, which is the core value of, you know, in an option, you have the intrinsic value, which is literally the value you could just sell a for in that moment, and then you have the premium, right? And yeah, so he's looking. But I guess you assign that same trading model to cryptos, and as it pulls back Bitcoin to $3,000, $4,000, maybe you said there's value at Bitcoin to $3,000 over a multi-year basis or something like that. And man, it paid off when you got to surging anything, go up 400% in a six-month period. That'll add to those portfolio benefits, yeah. No doubt about it. Let's go see what else inside the higher volume equities we have out here. The four debt, their earnings, too, they're pulling back. OK, Facebook is down $338,000. That's interesting. OK, they had great numbers. Bottom line is selling that off. PayPal, OK, so let's go look at Facebook. FB, yeah, not the end of the world, you know? Because what you're going to have now, folks, is that you actually have a, it got over the swing point, you're going to have volume. It's giving it up on price, but guess what? That's saying that you still get higher price coming at you. It's testing this, yeah, it's testing the downdraft. I don't think it's going to see much of a pullback here. What is going to be intriguing, there's no doubt, in Facebook is that, how is Zuckerberg going to be signing off on this deal every quarter? Yes, talking about having to sign off on privacy concerns, right, as part of the executive. Yeah, so just checking back in, natural gas, continuing that decline down to $221 now. Not a bad move if you'd been treating it in terms of three pennies. That's a decent move on that natural gas. We bring up natural gas. Watch this, folks. It looks to me, this is where... You're looking for that low, like we're looking at? Yeah, and what happens, this is what happens, okay, you can... Now this is delayed feed, so we're not going to see that last few minutes, but it'll catch up. But what I want to show you is that, you know, okay, so natural gas, we're 225. The problem with natural gas is a high volume low right now at 213, the 213. So, okay, so that's the downside. Now, you can make the case, which I'd make the case too, that, okay, you had to sign a strength out here on the 5th of July. Yes. But what I've found is this, if you get a sign of strength and even in a downdraft for so long, well, you have to come back with light volume, but then you're going to take over a major swing point before you really have buyers. And the major swing point is all the way up here at 276. You know, it's like, okay, so what is that? And that's what the real danger thing is. You know, that, this at first, you might get that test again of that, you know. That's not that far away. I mean, what's so cool is we get to fast forward this chart 15 minutes, right? We know we're trading at 221. So you're only talking about 213. Well, we already know this just went from 225 to 221. So now you're sitting to put it on the chart right here. Actually, that, well, you got it now, it's 248. Oh, okay, I'm just looking at the crosshair, the horizontal line, as in that's actually where it's trading at right now. If you look at that, it's right next to the wall. It's under even yesterday, right? So yeah, it's right there, yep. Stay right there, folks. Tony and I are coming right back. Our phone number is<PHONE_NUMBER>. We have the dial investors down 62. Mazda got 44, S&P's up 7 and a half. Come right back. If you're in the CD market and looking for a secure investment, the Tiger First mortgage program may work for you. The security for these first mortgages are building lots in the tax opportunity zone in St. Petersburg, Florida. The Tax Act of 2018 set up tax-free zones across the country where you can build and hold for 10 years and pay no tax on the profits, which makes these lots valuable. The investment is anywhere from 30,000 to 75,000. The interest paid is 7% yearly paid on a monthly basis. According to bankrate.com, the best rate for a four-year CD in the country as of February 20th is 3.1%. A $50,000 investment at a normal four-year CD rate of 3.1% would give you income of $1,550 per year or $6,200 over the four-year period. 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The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor Four Side Fund Services, LLC. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV for the latest market information. Folks are doubted. I was down 80 and I was like, I've got 45 S&Ps in my feet. Let's go to our man, Paul and Henderson, Nevada. What's going on, brother? Good morning, gentlemen. How you guys doing today? Morning, Paul. Doing great yourself? Hey, doing pretty good. Had a couple of good trades this morning. And now I'm honing in on this GDXJ. Oh, baby. I want to see what you think here because I want to get back in that J-nug. Let's take a look. And I'm looking at this $40 level. I just want to see what you think, Tom. Let's take a look. So we get the GDXJ. That's the Vanectis, Goldbinders, ETF of the juniors. We're trading $39.42. Little bit of volatility today. Oh, I like this. Yeah, see, it's already rejected lower price, man. You know, you get a day trade that said buy it right now.  Because what you have, so watch, folks, this is, so let's go over to the gold contract first. You have two different things happening here. And the gold contract gave it up in spades, right? That being said, they, you know, we went from a price point in gold, okay? Gold caught a bid really early. Got up to $14.34, gave it up in spades when Mario Draghi came out, was talking, then has already come back, $6, and when you actually look at the aspect of the Euro going higher, gold should continue to catch a bid. And the identification of personality in gold lately has been every single time that you drive it down, guess what?  So, you know, to me, GDXJ, you know, that this thing, bottom line will not give it up, you know? You can see when you put this on, it's really a nice little setup when you look at it like, okay, we got under the low of Monday, which was $38.79. You went to $38.78, man. Yeah. If it blows my mind to do these pennies. So you have a spot there, Paul. What I like about a trade like this, you have a spot that you're not looking for, I don't believe you're looking for a lot of money on the upside, you know, for a day trade. And you have a solid spot that you can put your stop at on the downside, you know what I'm saying? So, and you don't even have to, I wouldn't, Yeah, I like this daily setup a lot. You know, I pushed that bar a few days ago with quite a lot of volume.  And I wouldn't even. You want to break out again soon. You don't even have to give it. I wouldn't even, if I was day trading that, I wouldn't even give it to the low of today. What I would do is I'd give it to, see the lowest $38.78, I would tuck, the last time we had volume was at $10.30. I would tuck my stop right into that $38.39.08.  And if that's the buy, then you can go down to the next level. You know what I'm saying? Cause I suspect we're going to get into this, you know, fought it all level before it's over. Let me just look at something. So, inside of this, well actually, okay, so let me see this. I got to get inside of this and find out what the, what you want to do is that, when you're playing these, you want, yeah, you want to know the largest weighting. So in this one here, you really don't have something that's like sticking out like a sore thumb. What I mean folks is that the weightings, you get Northern Star, 6.2, Evolution, 5.8, you know. So I'd pull a few of these up and- Canteras, Goldfields, Pan American, Yamana. Right, and see how they're doing. Let me just look at Pan American, cause I'm so used to this stock. Okay, so that's going sideways. This is a good setup. Yeah, Pan American wants higher price. You know, you're pulling back a little bit. You can see it's anemic, man. I'd go through a few of them, Paul. That's what I normally do with these. You know, you go- Yeah, it's easy to pull that up on the TC 2000. I could just pull up the, all the equities inside of that TTF and kind of see which ones are moving and- That's right. It's a great way of doing it, man. What I used to actually, just having to check it one, two, three, up, down, or I don't know. You know what I mean? Sure. Some of them you don't know. And if I have, okay, six going up and the weighting's better, I don't know, two. And I say, okay, because all you're doing there is you're bringing your probability higher because you're using two different structures to melt the probability structure together. You know what I'm saying? I like how this is shaking because what does happen inside the GDX in general, now not the J, the GDX, this is pretty cool to trade because when you see this, you always really have to know, not always you have to know, but if you know when Newmont and Barrick is going, you're gonna be in pretty good shape. That's 22%, 21.7, I know. Okay, perfect. Hey, do you guys have time for one more? Sure. Can we take a look at NOC? NOC. I was wondering what the short interest is on there. Okay, so that's only 1%, 1.4. This is Northroom Grumman. This is a monster military contractor. It's up $14. It's getting back into those highs and this volume today is pretty light right now. Yeah, I'd let it get all the way up there, Paul. Yeah, you're right at it. I see what you're saying. I'd let it get all the way up there. So this is gonna be something like, and something you wanna keep your eye on in a couple of weeks is Tripoli also. If Tripoli doesn't hold that high at the end of the month, that's gonna be a decent trade on the way down. And this one here, so in a monthly, that's 20 million. We're at 12.8. We're at 12. Yeah. It won't make it. This is, what you want here is this. You want this thing to get to, did it hit it yet? 358, it did. Okay, so it did, it did. 358.96. I know, and you're gonna look at it. No, so there's 360.88, I see. Oh, okay. 360.88.  And then if you get a failure, then you get action. This one here only has a 1.4% shot position. So that's a decent candidate. If you get a failure, that's gonna be the crucial part, man, because you gotta remember something that, let's see, those two large bars that you have right there right now, they like to come and freeze, man. So I would just wait till the end of the month. So I see upgrades in there as well. Credit Swiss upgrading to 385 from 364. Soft betting against a military contractor that just gets to print money off the heels of the Defense Department, you know? Look at this, this is, they say it's worth $60 billion, just one, oh. I'm not sure what that program is, but I'm sure it's. It's GBS, yeah. Yeah, not bad when you're competing for $60 billion worth of government contracts. Yeah, break. Not bad. Totally. Yeah. Yeah. Slightly, all right? Slightly. All right, well, I'll keep my eyes on it. I'm looking for some sort of indicator to go short on this thing, but. Don't go yet. I like the shorting because only 1%, that's pretty good. And let the S&P, the S&P, Paul, 305-5 is the ABC structure on the way up. The way that, if the, what would be really cool is that if you get the S&P to that point, then you get the failure, then you just, even if a natural pullback, and the S&P wants to pull back a little, then I can pull back a little, then you get a couple different things that are giving you a better indication that, listen, it might just be backing off, but you make some money. Awesome, man. Thank you so much. Cookin' man, thanks, Paul. I have a great one, man. I have a safe one. Dow, Dow's down 60. Nasdaq got 42. S&P's off seven. Come on. I'm certain you are, or strive to be, one of the best of the best at everything you do in life. It's the most common trait that we tigers and tigers share. If you're looking to become the best of the best when it comes to managing your money, let me teach you to do what most wealth managers tell you can't be done, which is how to time the markets. 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When you go over to our website at TFNN, folks, you're gonna see right into featured content, the 900th issue of the Goal Report. We're doing a promotion. Bottom line is that you can get the Goal Report for one year, 4.95 instead of 6.95. That's right, man. So we have a Tiger Doll sale going on. Everyone can take part.  That's 200 extra Tiger Dolls you can use for any product we have. More than a 40% bonus on what you're spending, one of our best sales we've ever done. You can come on over right on the front page. You'll see that. And we've designed it. Like you said, a year of the Goal Report, 6.95. That's always the case. This allows you to get a year of it for 4.95.  You get a 10% bonus. You certainly don't get another 200, right? So this is more than a 40% bonus and you're spending a little less than 500.   And a year of the Goal Report, 6.95, so you can get that less than 10 bucks a week, man. I think that's the cheapest we've ever offered it. 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Welcome, everyone. My name is Lauren work and I'm here with my co chair and colleague Elizabeth England to present the findings of the 2021 and the essay staffing survey. So a bit of background about the staffing survey. This is the third iteration of the survey and subsequent report with the first two being completed and 2020 and 2012 and 2017. The overall goal of the survey is to both examine current digital preservation staffing levels and needs, as well as to review these changes over time. So in 2021, a new working group was formed to develop and conduct this current iteration of the staffing survey and report. In doing so, we took the opportunity to significantly revise the survey based on an examination of past results and recommendations from prior working groups, as well as to keep current with the changing landscape of digital preservation work and staffing. One of the most significant changes we made to the survey itself was to ask for individual rather than organizational responses. And the shift allowed us to both ask for the first time for more detailed demographic information such as income and gender, as well as allow us to collect more discrete individual responses, as well as multiple responses from individuals within a single organization. Finally, this approach still allowed us to maintain longitudinal data across surveys, as we retained and modified some similar questions to those asked in 2012 and 2017. And all of this work was only made possible by a fantastic working group team. Elizabeth England and myself had the privilege of co-chairing the group, while the additional people on the team are all listed on the slide here and made significant contributions to the survey redesign, data collection analysis, and report writing for the survey. And additionally, a special thanks goes to the digital preservation community as well, who took the time to fill out the survey and share their thoughts and experiences with us. So, once our survey review and redesign was complete, it was open to the community during the months of November and December of 2021. The survey and subsequent report covered five main sections. These were background information, which includes the demographic information I mentioned. Digital preservation activities and planning, digital preservation organization and staffing, staffing qualifications and training, and final thoughts about program staffing and organization. And this consisted of two free text questions. We received 269 responses from individuals with 16 countries represented in the data. 65% of respondents were from the United States. 63% of respondents worked in academic libraries or archives, and 66% of respondents identify as women. So one of the questions asked in the background section shown here is Q7. Asked respondents to select the option that best describes their position within the organization. This was a required question in the survey, and the choices were from left to right on the screen here. A senior level administrator or executive with strategic or financial oversight of digital preservation. Someone whose principal responsibility is coordinating digital preservation on an organization wide basis. Who contributes to developing digital preservation guidelines, activities and workflows. And someone who performs specific digital preservation activities. We asked this question because we really wanted to understand how one's position within an organization as related to digital preservation might affect their view and also relate to other survey questions. So as demonstrated here, the question proved really useful in interpreting and analyzing survey results. So what you're seeing here on the screen is where we took answers related to positionality and cross reference them with answers that respondents gave to question 13, which asked respondents to agree or disagree with the statement. Digital preservation is a high priority for my organization. It's on a scale of strongly disagree to agree, which you can see along the bottom with the x axis, and the position and role answers are along the horizontal or y axis. So those in the roles of senior administrator executor, executive, and those who coordinated digital preservation, generally tend to have more positive outlooks. So agreeing or strongly agreeing that digital preservation is a priority. And you can see that going into the blue. Those who are likely to have less organizational power and positionality in the other two roles, you can see are more into the red on the screen here. And generally throughout the survey, those perceived to have more organizational power. So those two roles of the senior administrator, executive, and those who coordinate digital preservation, they tended to have more positive outlooks. So this is a follow up question to that previous question about digital preservation prioritization and as respondents who had disagreed or strongly disagreed to explain why they felt that digital preservation was not a high priority at their organization. And we did this throughout the survey with some different questions to get a more nuanced understanding of why people tended to agree or disagree with questions, mostly in the disagree to strongly disagree realm. So the issues around prioritization and senior level support are part of this list. And you can see in diminishing numbers. So starting with too many competing priorities with 89%. Followed by insufficient senior administrator or executive understanding digital preservation. Now things like lack of expertise on staff tend to fall near the bottoms. You can see that at 45% or so. This is just one example of a follow up question that also relates to positionality that we are interested in examining. Q 16 prompted respondents to describe how individuals committees and or departments handle digital preservation responsibilities. For 37% of respondents, there are multiple individuals at their organization whose work entails some digital preservation activities, but their work is not coordinated on an organization wide basis. In these scenarios that encompass some level of organizational coordination, 26% of respondents noted that one person is responsible for digital preservation in their organization. When comparing this question with Q 14, which asked respondents to indicate whether or not they agreed or disagreed with the following statement. The organization has the digital preservation policies needed to manage the content we steward respondents who reported some level of organizational coordination were more likely to agree or strongly agree that they have the policies needed. The data showed a connection between coordinated organizational efforts and strong digital preservation policies. A major area of focus for the survey was about staffing levels. All of the four position types are perceived as understaffed, although the extent of staffing gaps varies by position type. When survey respondents were asked about the current and ideal staffing numbers for the four roles outlined in the survey, the most enthusiasm for growth was around the role of someone who performs specific digital preservation activities. And the median change was plus two. The other roles median desire change was plus one with the administrator slash executive role median desire changed at zero. Based on this current version of the report, people are not asking for huge staffing number increases. But what this report tells us is that it is clear that staff need to be actually dedicated and supported both fiscally and organizationally to primarily do the work of digital preservation with decision making power and authority. Respondents with at least one senior administrator or executive with digital preservation oversight reported higher levels of coordinated decision making than those with no one in this role. Those who reported no senior administrator or executive with digital preservation oversight were more than twice as likely to indicate that there is ad hoc decision making at their organization as compared to a coordinated approach across their organization. Next slide. This question about skills and abilities was modified from the previous surveys to broaden the focus to important skills and abilities for all staff within an organization, not just new hires. Each skill or ability could be ranked as essential desirable not important or not applicable of the options provided five were rated as either essential or desirable by 97% or more of respondents. Those five are communication skills, analytical skills, collaboration skills, developing and implementing workflows and general IT literacy. Other skills such as collaboration. Um, sorry, the only options that weren't selected as either essential or desirable by at least 75% of respondents were managing continued improvement maturity modeling or certification and managing budgets. Next slide. Comparing the results of the skills question to Q seven, the four position types question differences of opinion about the most important skills or abilities emerge. Interestingly, collaboration was chosen as either the number one or number two most essential skill by all position types, except by senior level administrators or executives. All four position types recognized communication as an essential skill. Developing and implementing workflows was also a commonly recognized skill across positions. Next slide. One of the clearest trends throughout the survey was how perceptions of digital preservation shifted according to respondents roles within their organizations. These included significant differences in what are considered important skills for digital preservation staff respondents access to training and resources for digital preservation. And the perception of how well or if digital preservation is prioritized. Senior level leadership had the most favorable views of their digital preservation programs. This stands in stark contrast with responses throughout the survey that highlighted a lack of leadership positions advocating for prioritizing and demonstrating an understanding of digital preservation. There is a clear disconnect between those engaged in the routine work of digital preservation and those in senior level roles responsible for strategic and or financial oversight. This image here shows the six agreement level scale questions that were asked in the survey. And you can see that overall having staffing needed to manage content is the greatest need. So some additional conclusions as just stated the need to hire more staff was a substantial trend that emerged across the survey responses. But increasing the number of staff may only be part of the approach for building effective and sustainable digital preservation programs. Staff dedicated to digital preservation organizational placement of digital preservation roles and adequate decision making authority within those roles are also important. Generally responses indicated support for technology and infrastructure related to digital preservation needs, though respondents did note some room for improvement in these areas as well. And again, respondents have emphasized the importance of providing staff with necessary resources, the time, funding and opportunities to allow them to collaborate, participate in training and develop skills to sustainably staff, maintain and grow digital preservation programs. The 2021 staffing survey report, as well as the codebook anonymized raw data, list of job titles of respondents and files necessary for reproducing the data visualizations are available in the NDSA open science framework or OSF. The URL is available here. If you have any questions, please feel free to send an email to ndsa.digipres at gmail.com. Thank you.


So Tony Robinson was recently released from prison. He was let out two days ago. You've probably seen that video of him returning home on Facebook, seen by two and a half million people. It's been a national story. Of course, it's been a response in part to the hashtag free Tommy movement. But why did he go to prison in the first place? Well, he was arrested on the 25th of May outside Leeds Crown Court. He was initially arrested for breach of the peace. People know that breach of the peace is not particularly serious charge. Very rarely that it would lead to a custodial sentence that you go to prison. Can happen if you've had previous bad character and so on. It's not a serious charge. Having been arrested, however, a judge then looked at the fact that he'd broadcast from outside the Crown Court on Facebook Live.  Media couldn't report on it because it could have created a potential mistrial. Now, Tom Robinson was in contempt of court for Facebook broadcasting on Facebook Live. That trial, he was literally naming the people who were being charged where they worked in some cases. And he created the possibility of a mistrial. So what Tom Robinson did, this is why it's bad, is that he could have allowed people who were potentially rapists, nonces, to get off scot-free. Now explain to me how that kind of a person is a hero to you.  There was a petition signed by 600,000 people to Theresa May, the Prime Minister, saying free Tommy Robbins, as if this guy was a modern day Nelson Mandela. Nelson Mandela fought for a quality under the law in South Africa, whether you were white, black or brown. Tommy Robinson is trying to create a mistrial for potential nonces, pedos and rapists. Get a grip. Now the reason why there is a journalistic ban on these things, the reason why the media can't report on it, is because it could prejudice the trial. Tommy Robinson likes to talk about British values. A fair free trial is one of them. You twat. Imagine if you were being charged with something and you weren't guilty, it could be anything. You mug somebody. Speedy. Drink driving. And on the front page of the sun, on the day that you were going to face the magistrates, the crown court or whatever, was your face saying you were guilty. Now that would clearly prejudice the trial, especially if there was a jury. The jury, when they are overseeing part of a trial, they're not allowed to really read the papers or absorb any information relating to the case. That's what they've got to do. And what the media have got to do is not talk about anything to do with the case. Tommy Robinson broke those rules. He therefore undermined the impartiality of the trial and therefore of the criminal justice system. He therefore went to prison. It's really not that hard. And the thing is, he'd done it before. So he had a suspended sentence. So he's not this victim.  He didn't get a nick. He did the exact same thing before he didn't get a nick. He had a suspended sentence for three months. The judge took that, took this new instance of him again being in contempt of court and said three plus ten, you're going down for 13 months. It's perfectly reasonable.  Gert Wilders, the far-right Dutch politician, said, the authorities are trying to silence us. Yes, they are trying to silence dickheads who could potentially create a mistrial for people who might be nonces and rapists.  How would you feel? I would be incensed. I would certainly not think that person is a hero. Now, if you think I'm making this up, he pled guilty. Tommy Robinson pled guilty to contempt of court. He accepted he did this presumably to get a more lenient sentence. He accepted that he did this. Even during the transmission, Google this, put Tommy Robinson video, leads Crown Court May 25th and it will say the broadcast that Tommy Robinson got arrested for. You know, his brave reporter. You'll see it. And he even says, I can't cross the line here because I'm being contempt of court.  So this was the thing. And he accepted he'd done wrong. And his lawyer, a gentleman called Matthew Harding, said that my client feels very guilty. He's very apologetic. But now, of course, the line coming out from Camp Robinson is that this is all made up. He never pled guilty. He was never even shown the charges.  And then he was sent to a prison which is being compared to Guantanamo Bay. It was a category C prison. And he's saying he was in solitary confinement. Well, he probably would have been put in segregation, yes, for his own safety. He would have been initially offered to go with the nonces, the non-swim. He would have said no. I mean, it would have been a good fit, right? Because these are exactly the kind of people that he was trying to help get off scot-free by creating a mistrial. And then they would have got off scot-free. And then he could say, look, we don't lock up the nonces. That's his brand. Tom Robinson, go to Amazon, check his book out. It's got like 1500 reviews, great reviews. I've not read it. Maybe it's a good book. Maybe it's interesting. It's big business.  It really evidently, right? And that's his business. So anyway, he would have got into segregation. Well, you can argue it's kind of like solitary confinement. I mean, I don't think it's like solitary confinement in the US. It's called going in the hole. You don't really have any stimulus for any amount of time. He talks quite openly about reading emails inside and so on. That's not really, that's not really what, you know, I don't think in Guantanamo Bay they're going on Facebook. I could be wrong. It could be wrong. Maybe they're sort of, you know, playing playstations there too. But you know, this is interesting because you can't have it both ways if you're a Tommy Robinson supporter. You can't on the one hand say, well, British nicks, they're too soft.  And then on the other hand say, Tommy Robinson, it was like he was in Guantanamo. He was in the Category C prison. Category C. There's Category A, B, C, D. D's had open prison. Very low risk of trying to escape. Category A is hardcore. And he was in a Cat C. This is not like Bobby Sands and The Maze. This is not like Alcatraz. It's a Cat C prison. He was in there for two months. This is not Nelson Mandela territory people.  I'm very happy he went inside. He should have got inside for longer.  And so the other morons don't get similar ideas. Then let's talk about his politics.  It's a normal guy. He's a normal guy. Sure. 2003 he gets arrested by an off duty police officer after assaulting the police officer with them having intervened in an altercation between him and his then girlfriend. Presumably, he thinks his freedoms extend to hitting women. I don't know. He went down for 12 months. He comes out, joins the BMP. He apparently didn't know it was a racist party. He didn't join the Tories or Lib Dems or the Greens or Labour or even UKIP. He joins the BMP and then it was a racist party despite their policy being whites only. It was a whites only party. Not many people have joined the BMP. He then goes on to form the EDL, the English Defence League. And you can see the kinds of people, symbolism, rituals, the goings on EDL demonstrations. And then when you look at the free Tommy demonstrations, similar behavior. Now I understand many, many people on Facebook online support the guy, but the hardcore that goes to those protests, see for yourself the kinds of stuff they're doing. You see, well, that's just a tiny minority.  Fall me once, shame on me.  Gert Wilders, far up politician is there. In touch with Marine Le Pen, Steve Bannon calls in the backbone of Britain. I mean, it's pretty obvious what's going on here. Analytically, by any measure, Tom Robertson is on the far right. You know, I can break into somebody's house tomorrow and say, I'm not a rubber. What have I done to rob somebody?  You've robbed the house.  You started EDL.  It's really simple. It's really simple. And people like him talk about British values, habeas corpus, rule of law, a fair trial. I mean, these would be nice British values, if we want to agree on some stuff. But then he's saying, actually, the prison he was in was like a kangaroo prison. It was like being in the third world that the court he was facing was like a kangaroo court. It was all made up. It was all stitched up. You can't have it both ways.  Is he going to start saying that the judge was a Muslim, that the judge has shariah?  Where does this madness end? You can see these double standards coming on top of one another, can't you? Repeatedly.   Huge demographic changes. The economy has been on the ropes for 10 years. Wages have fallen. Homeownerships down. People are struggling. And then, of course, we're going to get hard breaks in next year. You might think that's a good thing, whatever, but I think it's going to happen. And that's going to mean a political crisis next year and the economy going south. And people at Tommy Robinson know this and they're going to try and exploit it. And many, many people are looking for simple answers. And if the answers on offer are Tommy Robinson blaming Muslims and an establishment that has I'm a critic of the establishment, but I've been in courts. I've seen how courts work. They're not great. They're pretty horrible places. But you've definitely told your charges. You've definitely given a barrister. They don't just make stuff up. There's no prison in Britain like Guantanamo. That's true. Okay. It's just madness. It's just madness. And you have to ask yourself where it ends. Where does it end?   And like I said, if that's the best explanation, I can see why it's appealing. Because many people still look at Labour, the same party of Tony Blair of Gordon Brown. They don't trust the Tories. They don't really trust any billion authority. And this person saying things which resonate. But the truth is, attacking Muslims saying that they're all rapists isn't going to give you higher wages. Creating potential mistrust for nonsense is not going to give you a house or give your kids a better quality of life. Right? Spreading nonsense about Sharia law isn't going to give us better public services or reduce NHS waiting times. So what can we do? Well, we all have a friend or a relative who has probably shared, believes his Tommy Robinson nonsense, asked him, say, why do you think he was arrested in the first place? Why do you think he went to prison? Well, you know, it was a conspiracy. He was speaking the truth. No, he created a potential mistrial for potential nonsense and rapists. Do you agree? Simple answer. Yes or no? I think most people are going to say no. In addition to that, because this is going to carry on, he's probably going to go back into Nick because he's guilty. Okay? In addition to that, there'll be subsequent free Tommy demonstrations. I think this will get bigger and bigger and bigger. People need to get on the streets. They need to get on the streets. And I don't just mean typical anti-fascist stuff. That's great. Fine. But it needs to be everybody.  There's always a new enemy. There is always a new enemy. And when heartbreak hits next year, the economy goes south. We have a profound rupture in this country politically, which is also by the way Jeremy Corbyn and Scottish independence, this is all a reflection of.  And Tommy, I've got a message for you.  Not hard. Imagine if that was your kids.  Now you might disagree. You might say, Aaron, you don't know what you're talking about. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Put it in the comments below. Tell me why I'm wrong. Show the evidence. Feel free. He was charged with contempt of court. He went down with contempt of court. That's what he was guilty of. Okay. I wish he'd gone into it longer. What he did was terrible. He should be in there. He deserves to be in there. Okay. I'm not wrong. Hate to break it to you about your great freedom fighter, the Luton Mandela.  And the rest of you, I'll see you on the streets because this is only gonna get bigger. And we need to give people the alternatives and the answers. I think those answers are socialism, but we also need to resist what is arising far right on the street. So I don't make no bones about it. Tommy Robinson is, has been, and probably always will be, a racist.


Welcome folks, we've got a big update today, Tommy and Tommy O'Brien, huh, they sure do. Let's take a look at it folks, okay, bottom line is that you've got the Dow Industries off 469, we have the NASDAQ off 323 and we've got the S&Ps, look at the S&Ps down 66. That's the downdraft inside the NASDAQ folks of 2% inside the S&Ps 1.2 and the Dow 1.2. Gold, gold continues to go higher of 12.30, 21.38, silver is down 8 cents, 23.90, notes and bonds. Now this one's yours, this is hitting this computer over here, the 10-year note of 18 ticks, the 30-year up a full point plus 8 ticks and then King Dala, where's King Dala here, Tommy? What's King Dala doing? King Dala was down 41 ticks, 103.792, yours at 108, Yen's at 149, British Pounds at 127. Tom, what do you think? Open, open, open, there we go. We take a look at it, so what you have out here folks is this, is that, one second up, one second, there we go, okay I got it. So if we take a look at the queues, the bottom line, we are coming down with some volume. Spy's not that much right now, but the queues are, the queues are already done 40 million, you gave up the last three days pretty quick, so now would you, would you have, see that chart up there, Tommy? See those lows with that big volume? That's where this thing wants to go, so we'll see how it's checking out. Hey, what do you, Tommy, what do you think about the gold report? You think they should buy, do you think they should buy the gold report? There we go. What do you think? What about buy low or sell high? Is it buy low or sell high? Huh? Is it? Bottom line folks, we're in a correction, you know, so we'll see where this baby shakes out. The spy volume is light, and in the gold contract, yeah, that continues higher, and the dollar hasn't fell apart, so we're going to see where this whole baby shakes out in the next few days, but window dressing is over, we have Tim Oyd coming on. Yeah, go ahead, you can do that again.  Say bye to everyone, Tommy. Say, wave, wave to them. Bye. Say see you later, alligator. Say see you, alligator. Okay, have a great one, folks, have a safe one. Come right back.


Nuts are packed with nutrition, but they're also packed with calories. Why then don't nuts seem to make people fat? This was a review published back in 2007, looking about 20 clinical trials that had been done on nuts and weight, and not a single one showed the weight gain one would expect. Some did show weight gain, but not as much as predicted. Add three handfuls of peanuts to people's daily diets for a few weeks, and they should gain like 8 pounds, but instead only gained about 2. What happened to the thousands of missing calories? Same thing with walnuts. After six months of a handful of walnuts a day, they should have gained about 12 pounds, but instead just gained 1, much lower than expected. Okay, what about two handfuls of nuts a day for six months? 40 to 50 almonds added to their diets every day. That's 320 calories added to their daily diet. They should have gained more than 16 pounds, but instead gained less than one. The women in the study only gained about a quarter of a pound. Wait a second, they stuffed their face with 40 to 50 nuts a day for six months and only gained a quarter of a pound? In fact, the weight gain in the study was so small, it wasn't even statistically significant, which means it may have just happened by chance. What happened to the tens of thousands of missing calories? The only other study showing weight gain found the same thing, five times less weight gain than expected, but unlike the other studies, these folks told eat the extra nuts, were also told to cut back on other foods, and so this one doesn't tell us much. Other studies adding nuts to people's diets showed no weight gain at all. One to two handfuls of walnuts added to daily diets for six weeks no weight gain. Then they put people on a low-fat diet and they lost weight. Now what happens when you add a handful or two of walnuts to that low-fat diet? No weight gain. What happened again to the missing calories? How about two to three handfuls of nuts? Three quarters of a cup of pecans added to their daily diet for eight weeks with 450 calories added to their daily diet. They should have gained about a pound a week, but didn't gain an ounce. That's 25,000 calories vanished into thin air. What happened? There was even a study in which adding daily handful of nuts for a month resulted in weight loss. Macadamia nuts this time, what is going on? All the other nuts studies in this review were what are called iso-energetic studies, meaning they adjusted the calories to ensure people would stay the same weight, which makes it even more remarkable than some of the studies people mysteriously lost more weight eating nuts. For example, here they prepared all the meals, forced people to eat only out of the metabolic kitchen in which food portions were calculated to the nearest gram. Both groups were given the same kind of diet, but one group was given handfuls of pecans. To ensure no weight changes, they made sure the diets had the same number of calories by reducing the portion sizes of the rest of the diet in the nut group. So in the end, each group was supposed to get 2,400 calories a day. Now when they chemically analyzed the diets, it turns out that the nut group ended up getting an extra 100 calories a day, which makes it even more crazy that the nut group lost weight. That's not supposed to happen. Another phenomenon here, people were given 400 calories of almonds, muffins, or half almonds, half muffins. Again, they tried to make all three diets the same number of calories, but the nut groups ended up with more calories, yet ended up the same or lower weight. How was that even possible? Well these were all clinical trials where people were put on added nuts for just a few weeks or months. What about long term? Maybe in the short run, nuts don't lead to weight gain, but maybe after years of eating nuts? Well that's been looked at six different ways. In studies lasting from one year to six years, the Harvard Nurses Health Study, one found no significant change. The other five out of six measures found significantly less weight gain and risk of abdominal obesity in those eating more nuts. This was published back in 2011 though. Is this just old news? And this was five years ago. Has there been any studies published since that are missing from these reviews? Yes, a whole bunch of them and I might as well just run through them quick. But I want to make sure to get through each one, so you have a kind of comprehensive sense of what's out there. Well, okay, remember that study where there were stuffing three handfuls of peanuts in their face every day and still didn't gain the expected weight? Well, nut calories may not count as much, but candy calories do. Two weeks of overfeeding with candy increases body weight, but the same amount of calories of nuts did not. So these peanuts may not make you gain weight, but these peanuts may. Then came pistachios versus pretzels, same amount of calories, but a significantly greater drop in body mass index in the pistachio group. In 2012, there was another pistachio study. Pistachios were randomized to consume either the recommended daily serving of 42 grams of pistachios, that's about 73 pistachios a day, versus a higher daily serving of all about 121 pistachios a day, or no pistachios for 12 weeks. Whoa, over 100 nuts a day they must have been packing on the pounds. Nope. Which is which? Does it matter? Can you even tell the zero nuts a day group from the 121 nuts a day group? How did 30,000 calories per person disappear? A cross-sectional study between nut intake and fatness, the skinniest people ate the most nuts, the fattest people ate the least nuts. Nut consumption was associated with a lower body mass index, and meat consumption was associated with a higher body mass index. In terms of people's waistlines, those eating the most nuts and vegetables had the slimmest waist, and those eating the most meat and meat products had the widest waist. They even calculated that each daily handful of nuts was associated with a 2 centimeter slimmer waist. Same thing found here in the US. Eating just a quarter ounce of nuts or more was associated with a significantly lower risk of being overweight and obese, though this was just for adults. There may be an opposite relationship for children, and you can see that the tree nuts and nut butters appeared to do better than when you include the peanuts and peanut butter. Then came more Harvard Action that published in the New England Journal of Medicine, weight gain most associated with junk food intake, potato chips, french fries, soda pop, and meat, and weight loss most associated with vegetables, nuts, whole grains, fruits, and surprisingly, yogurt. They think it may be due to the probiotics. The investigators conclude minimally processed foods such as nuts, fruits, vegetables, and whole grains should be increased. Indeed, global epidemics of obesity and chronic disease amplify. Both the health and economic imperatives of altering current agricultural and food industry priorities, many small dietary and lifestyle changes together, can make a big difference for good, for bad, or good, and for nuts, it was good. Here's the latest review on nuts published in 2012. We're finally getting to the end, sorry for this long video. Which concluded, in human supplementation studies, nuts have been shown to improve cholesterol and arterial function and reduce inflammation all without causing weight gain. And finally, three last papers published not just 2012, but actually August 2012. The first was a comparison of a low-calorie diet with or without nuts, and though at first it looked like the nut-free diet was going to win out, by the end of the study, 18 months, no significant difference was found. Then two weeks ago, another cross-sectional study, meat, soda, and cake, were associated with the highest BMI and nut consumption with the lowest. Similar to what was concluded in the latest review on food and long-term weight change over time, they looked at all the best studies published over the last 12 years, and what did they find? They found two main things. No evidence for high intake of dietary fiber and nuts predicting less weight gain over time, and for high intake of meat predicting more weight gain. The bottom line is that so far every single study, in which they added nuts to people's diets without trying to restrict calories, failed to show the expected weight gain, whether it was just less than predicted, no weight gain at all, or even lost weight. So what happened to the missing calories? Well, the mystery has been solved. On Monday I presented the pistachio principle and the fecal excretion theory. On Tuesday they were put to the test. On Wednesday I explored the dietary compensation theory, and by Thursday we had figured it out. Part of the trick seemed to be that nuts boosted fat burning within the body, but how? Well, it could be the arginine, or, spoiler alert, the flavonoid phytonutrients, as we'll see in Monday's video of the day.


okay guys we're doing Merry Christmas start up on the vet last time I did some gentle dev grabs and somebody commented that I was too gentle with it well there it is Merry Christmas everyone