Good day fellow investors. In this video I will analyze El Dorado Gold. It's a very interesting stock because it is at historical lows and here you can see the stock price that is around $2.3 now. It has been almost to 20 few years ago. Just a quick note, this is what you can expect if gold prices increase to the level they were five years, six years ago, 1800. So just a $500 increase in gold prices would make a lot of gold miners 10 baggers, some gold miners even more. If gold prices surpass 2000 then you can see 50 baggers, 100 baggers easily from gold. And that's why I want to invest deeper into El Dorado. The main issue with El Dorado is that they stopped producing and developing their Greek mines because they cannot agree with the Greek government. I think that many have in common I think today. Nevertheless they have standoff their grippo operations. However they received some key permits and detailed arbitration is about to begin. The management expects good faith negotiations and this is a very very positive stepping stone. So we could expect positive things to happen in future. Now El Dorado is not only Greece and let's make some of parts analysis to see what's the margin of safety, what's the value of the other assets and what would be the value of El Dorado with the Greek assets in operation. So El Dorado is the major player in the Tatian belt. The gold resources amount to 45 million ounces. That's huge and the costs mining costs are very very low. Here you can see the mines in Turkey and Greece are the most important mines. There are some exploration in Serbia. The mine in Serte is a project. So this is one but there is still more and we'll discuss it later. Let's immediately see what is the FM Tsukuru if I pronounce it well mine in Turkey worth. Gold production about 100 000 ounces per year. Very low cash costs if you can see it here. High grade and low sustaining capex. I have made a quick back of a napkin analysis just analyzing what's El Dorado worth here. Put in the cash flows, what's the operating cash flows, what could be the present value at a 10% discount rate for the five years remaining of mine life and I come somewhere to 282 million. The second mine in Turkey is the Kisladak mine. You can see that their waste or will be lower grades relatively stable thus the cost should be even lower in the future. Nevertheless another back of a napkin calculation of the cash flows and I come to a value of 1.2 billion for the present value of the company. However there have been some technical issues with their leaching so they will miss guidance by 25% just to be sure I have lowered the present value of the Kisladak mine by 50% so I will use 600 million just as a margin of safety. Then that we have the Serte mine in Romania. It's a project, has a very long expected mine life, 15 years, the ownership is 80%, the company is working on permitting so it's very interesting let's see the net present value. The gold production annual is expected to be around 140 000 ounces and the cash costs also very very low. The net present value of the project at the 5% discount rate I prefer 10 but okay is around 305 million. Gold prices are now a bit higher so I have rounded it up to 200 million if we increase the discount rate. Then we have the Lamaku project in Canada that came to El Dorado with the recent acquisition of Integra. They paid 377 million for their part so let's put 400 million as they already own some stocks prior to that as the value of the project. They paid much more than the net present value but nevertheless there is much much exploration potential so let's estimate that what they paid is the actual value. Then they have the Villanova mine in Brazil iron ore zero value because it's placed on care and maintenance. Tocantizinho mine also in Brazil expected mine life 10 years net present value of 245 million at the 5% discount rate so let's take 200 million at the net present value. However the rate of return is low at 13.5% percent. Let's sum it up. So the total sum is 1.6 billion divided by 800 million shares you get to two dollars per share. Two dollars per share is close to the current price so even if they lose everything in Greece which is highly unlikely as they paid two billion and invested another billion in that so there is a margin of safety from the current operations. Nevertheless let's look at what's the value of Greece. Just look at the fundamentals the current assets are one billion the long-term assets we are making part-by-part analysis the debt is 1.2 billion let's not take any value from the balance sheet or from the one billion in cash that they have on the balance sheet as that can be used to repay debt or invested. So that's two dollars per share now the price is 2.2 so practically everything that goes on in Greece you get a call option on it without expiration date for the 0.2 dollars. Let's see what do we have in Greece we have the Strothoni mine lead zinc silver and this is the problem it's close to the sea Greece is a touristic country and there are many environmental issues. The Strothoni mine let's take value zero just to make the calculation quicker. Then we have the Olympias mine which is first let me show the potential there is still 650 meters open on the downside so huge potential for increases in their reserves and resources. The five-year plan sees it was supposed to start producing in 2017 but not yet achieved due to problems in Greece however they expect on a gold equal production of 140 000 ounces cash costs very very low around 520 is the sustaining cash cost so very very profitable mine. The 10 years if you look at the cash flows gross profit of around 200 220 million per year so let's take a billion in value if everything goes well and Olympia starts producing. Skouris mine also very very long-term mine very strong cash flow so at current copper and gold prices Skouris gets for me an approximate value of 400 million for the 2 billion in cash flows. There is another mine Paramahil project economics net present value 200 million and 5% so let's add another 100 million to this. Now my point is the gold won't go anywhere what haven't happened in Greece however the politicians always change and there will be new coming so even if you have to wait one two years the call option on the Greece issue is very very cheap just a 20 cents so Eldorado is a very very interesting investment they have one billion in cash they can repay the debt if they are not going to produce in advance and they can continue being cash flow positive as they are even without Greece. The sum with Greece we already had 1.6 billion Olympia 1 billion Skouris 400 million Paramah 200 million so we are at 3.2 billion which is around four dollars per share if you pay 2.2 to get four dollars with a huge margin of safety and a conservative analysis Eldorado looks like a very very good investment now there is plenty more to research sensitivity to lower gold prices long-term security what they're doing their debt how can they be repaid and so on and so on but if you really want margin of safety gold minor and you have a long-term outlook so that you can wait out what will happen in Greece Eldorado might be the stock for you thank you for watching and i'm looking forward to your comments


We'll be Dr. Michael Kelly. Michael is just starting off. He's only in his seventh year as a neurosurgery chief resident at the Cleveland Clinic. Michael was a fellow with us a year or two ago in the ethics program. Michael's research interests are in surgical decision making and outcomes research. He's a graduate from Loyola University, Chicago's Strict School of Medicine. Today, Mike will talk to us on the topic who's outcome, which measure, the ethics of outcome assessment in patients with neurologic injury. Join me in welcoming Mike Kelly. Well good afternoon everyone. My name is Mike Kelly. So I'd like to thank Dr. Sigler and the McLean Center for the opportunity to talk about this topic. Who's outcome, which measure, the ethics of outcome assessment in patients with neurological injury. I'll begin with a case discussion that presents an instance of neurological injury for acute ischemic stroke. Move to kind of a discussion of what outcome measures are used to assess benefit in patients with ischemic stroke and how those outcome measures interface with decision-making at the bedside and then talk about some future directions for research and patient care. So a 75 year old female presents to your hospital with a left side at acute stroke and as you can see here on the CT scan, there's an area, a darkened area up here of hypodensity, we call it, which is where the stroke area is on the left side. Now this is where speech is in most patients. This is also where motor control over the right side of the body would be. You can also see that it's causing a substantial amount of mass effect up here. So those are the fluid field spaces, the ventricles, they're being pushed over to the side. So this is a life threatening event. This patient is likely very close to herniating and any decision-making that needs to be done needs to be done fairly quickly as far as whether or not there's going to be a life-saving procedure done. This particular patient has multiple medical problems as many of these patients do who have large strokes, heart problems, lung problems, kidney problems. Patient presents intubated hemiplegic meaning they're not moving the right side of their body and has minimal responses. And in discussion with the family in rather hurried fashion you ask them what would your mother want to do in this situation. They say that they want to do everything for mom. They're not really sure but do everything that you can. And so the question of course is what to do. You have an older patient with lots of medical problems who is going to have severe disabilities no matter what you do and if she survives that is. And so your major options are really three.  And if the patient survives at a later point in time re-implanting the skull. Another option is medical therapy so non-surgical therapy. You can give medications to help reduce pressure in the brain far less effective than surgery but another option as well. And the third option is really withdrawal of care so this patient would not want to have anything done then you could all you could proceed with withdrawing care removing the breathing tube and going from there. Of course in many of these discussions that you're having with family though the question is what's the outcome. So if we do surgery what's going to happen? If we don't do surgery what's going to happen? And as a clinician you really are the point person for providing information in this scenario. And so we do have a significant body of literature, a significant evidence body that's been growing over the past 10 to 15 years that does help in guiding decision making. In the past decade or so there's been three randomized trials one meta-analysis which suggests for patients less than 60 years of age surgery hemicraniac to me reduces mortality from 78 to 29% and increases the percentage of patients with a favorable outcome from 24 to 75% at one year. And it's important to look at how they define favorable outcomes. So they're using in these studies the modified rank and scale which you can see here illustrated in this table. It's a scoring system that's based on clinician reports of functional status measures. So you're scored from a score of zero which is no symptoms at all the six which is death. They're defining a favorable outcome is a modified rank and less than or equal to four. Meaning moderate severe disability being unable to walk without assistance and unable to attend to one's own bodily needs without assistance. The Destiny 2 trial was published just this past year in the New England Journal of Medicine and it showed for patients over the age of 60 that surgery reduces mortality from 77 to 30% and increases the percentage of patients with a favorable outcome from 18 to 38% at six months. Again favorable being defined as modified rank and less than or equal to four. And this is what the distribution of outcomes looks like. This comes from the Hamlet study but there's many studies and they all kind of show a similar distribution of outcome. So if in non-surgical therapy, conservative treatment, the mortality rate is 71% and there's patients fall into the other sub types with the modified rank and score but much smaller percentages. For patients who had surgery done, the mortality rate drops to 22%. You really don't change the number of patients who end up with a modified rank and a five but the number of patients with modified rank and four, three and two all increase significantly. And so in these patients you reduce mortality and increase the number of modified rank and sub types. So the question that emerged from these studies and still kind of persist in the literature is what exactly is a favorable outcome? How are we defining this? Is it a modified rank and three perhaps or four? Most of these studies use a modified rank and a four. Modified rank and a three is moderate disability requires help but can walk without assistance. Modified rank and a four is unable to walk without assistance. Are we just trading death for disability in these patients? So you may be saving a lot of lives but you're saving lives and increasing the number of patients with modified rank and fours and threes. Is this an acceptable outcome? And really who should be making these decisions? Now, mind you, this is a clinician reported outcome measure. A clinician assesses function and the clinicians are the ones doing the research. They're assigning favorable outcomes. What do patients think about these outcomes? How do you elicit patient responses when most of these patients are aphasic? They can't talk or sometimes even minimally responsive. How do you know if this is really a benefit to patients or not? And of course, the question also is which outcome? So the modified ranking is the most well established outcome measure used for the longest time in the stroke literature, but there's certainly several other outcome measures that could be used. They basically are divided into clinician reported outcome measures, patient reported outcome measures. Clinician reported outcome measures focus largely on function. Things like the modified ranking scale, Barthol index, NH stroke scale, glass cow outcome scale, patient reported health status measures can cover several more domains, things like function or the stroke impact scale. Depression using the patient health questionnaire, the PHQ9 or quality of life using the EQ5D, the uroqual health index. And there's several more measures. Now the Destiny 2 trial, the trial that looked at the benefit of Henry Craneectomy in patients over the age of 60, they showed a benefit for patients achieving a modified rank and lesser equal to four. But they also looked at some of these other patient reported health status measures. You can see them here. The SF36, which is kind of a quality of life outcome score, the Hamilton depression rating score, and the EQ5D quality of life index. And interestingly, when they looked at patients who were able to actually complete these health instruments and follow up, they really showed no difference in benefit for these patient reported health health outcome measures when you compare the surgery to the non-surgery group. None of the groups showed a statistically significant difference. At the Cleveland Clinic, we've done work. We have a large outcomes database called the Knowledge Program, which basically follows patients in the post-operative setting and follow up clinics and has them complete health questionnaires, both patient reported health questionnaires and then the clinicians themselves report health questionnaires on the patients as they follow them up. We looked at our Henry Craneectomy patient population after surgery at three and nine months to see if there are any improvements in these scores for these patients. We found that for things like the NIH stroke scale, we were able to show a significant statistical improvement in the scores from three to nine months. But the modified rank and score in our patient population showed no significant benefit. The EQ5D, the quality of life health index, showed a significant improvement in score. But the PHQ9 depression index did not show a significant improvement. In the SIS-16, that stroke impact scale that assesses patient reported function also showed a significant benefit. So interesting discrepancies, at least in our patient population, you don't see the modified rank and benefit, but you do see a patient reported functional benefit. You see a patient reported quality of life benefit as well. So it seems to me that depending on the scale and outcome measure you're using, you may or may not see a value or a good outcome in these patients. We then looked at also functional status measures as to what patients reported if they noticed any improvement in their daily life activities and found that for mobility, self-care, pain and discomfort, anxiety, depression, really patients noticed no improvements in the post-operative course, but for usual activities, to find his family, leisure activities, social activities, things like this, they did notice an improvement. And this is consistent with a lot of published reports in the disability literature, which suggests that patients have a response shift. Maybe before surgery, before an event like this, they may have not tolerated a disability very well, but afterwards they learned to adapt to their new disability, maybe see parts of their life in different ways that they hadn't appreciated before. And so the conclusions that come from a lot of these studies is that hemicraniac benefit depends on the outcome measure used. What are you using as your primary objective for your study? What quality of life outcome measures are you using in addition? Patient-reported outcome measures, at least in our study sample and a few other reports, may show greater improvement, but you have to remember this is a highly selective subgroup. These are patients who are able to report on health status measures in the post-operative period. And oftentimes they have family support in reporting on these measures. So this isn't strictly just a patient telling you how they're thinking, how they're feeling, how they're doing. And it is important to recognize that at least in clinician-reported measures, that disability is often emphasized over ability. So if the modified rank and score is clearly a set of instances or scoring where you have this deficit, you have this deficit, you have this deficit, instead of you're able to do this or you're able to do this or able to do this. So there's clearly a framing effect, a bias that goes into even the outcome measures that are used. So again you're brought back to this patient bill. This patient presents their comatose, they need an urgent operation, and what do you do? And certainly listening to their preferences is helpful and helps to direct care. But you as a clinician also, knowing all this data and knowing the outcome measures, certainly have your own opinion as well, in addition to your own clinical experience. And this is where of course our decision-making paradigm comes into play, and certainly our most basic ethical principles. In instances where patients can't make decisions for themselves, it's been well worked out that you start with an advanced directive, see if they've declared their wishes in some way they may help guide your therapy. And that's not available, move to a substituted judgment standard, where we attempt to elicit preferences and then try to use them to make the decision. And if that's not available and there's really nobody has any idea what this patient would have wanted, move to a best interest standard. But of course in patients with neurologic injury you have several limitations. They all lack decisional capacity in the severe instances. Advanced directives are of limited utility, so according to the support study about 25 percent of the population has an advanced directive. Those of the advanced directives, those that specify stroke care is really unknown, but it's probably extremely low. And those that specify which outcome measure that's being used currently matters to them is probably zero. And so really you don't have the specificity to really use advanced directives maybe as effectively as you'd like. Decisions are time sensitive, surrogates are often overwhelmed in these situations, and duties of beneficence are unclear. Not just to the surrogates, but to the doctors making the decisions themselves. Which outcome measure matters to you as a clinician? Are you okay with a modifier ranking of 4 or 3? Now it's certainly you don't want to impose your decision making on the patient, but you've seen these patients before, you certainly have an opinion. Are you valuing the EQ 5D quality of life metrics you read about, or maybe the depression scales? And how are you coming in these decisions? Substitute of judgment itself has fallen under some critique over the past decade or so. Shallowits in 2006 reported basically he did a meta analysis showing that in studies where patients, surrogates are put in a room and patients are put in a room, and they're asked to make decisions about what their healthcare would be. That the accuracy rates are poor, but they're particularly poor for patients who have stroke. An accuracy rate of about 58%, the lowest of all the disease types. And they're particularly low for intervention type, like surgery, where it's 62%. So patients, surrogates are oftentimes very inaccurate in even figuring out what preferences would be in a situation of a stroke requiring a potential surgery. Dr. Stilmase in 2007 published an article that showed that, and he looked at 147 terminally ill patients, and to try to figure out which model of decision making they would prefer if they were to become incapacitated in their decision making. And the results were somewhat helpful at least for those of us who deal with neurological injury because they overwhelmingly said they preferred a model of best interests and substituted judgments. That you try to elicit their preferences as best you can, but as a clinician, try to equally weigh in on your opinion about what the best course of treatment would be for these patients. And then that kind of brings us back to this classic paternalism versus autonomy debate. And we see this play out, I think, in a lot of the neurological outcome metrics that are used. The movement historically traditionally has been to focus on clinician-reported outcome measures. But there's also this emerging patient reported outcome measure paradigm that's important, I think, but also very limited in patients who have neurologic injury. And perhaps looking at them as either clinician or patient reported outcome measures may not be as helpful in figuring out what to do at the bedside. It may be that there's a mixed dynamic that's going on where clinicians have an opinion, and patients, of course, have their preferences and these things need to be brought together to best figure out what outcome measure we should be looking at in this population. And so the question then is if we have these two competing outcome measures, you have a clinician-reported, patient reported, how do you best bring them together? And I think it's important to acknowledge, first of all, where we're at. So outcomes depend on the perspective and the type of instrument used. It hasn't been acknowledged in these randomized trials, really, how much of a role did the modified rank in place in that it's a clinician reported outcome measure in that it emphasizes deficits and disability over abilities. And that certainly influences clinicians' perspective on the surgery to begin with. Isolated patient and clinician-reported outcome measures may not be helpful because they don't probably reflect actually how the decisions are being made, even how the follow-up is being done. Patients and clinicians and oftentimes their family members work together on making these decisions. Clinicians have opinions, patients have opinions. We need to better measure that to see where this is leading us. And shared outcome measures between the doctor and patient, kind of a hybrid measure, are needed. Not just process outcome measures, and these are growing today, there are shared decision-making measures that say, how well are we using decision-lays? How well are we emphasizing patient preferences and care? But this is slightly different. This is asking us, when you follow up in clinic, what does the doctor think about your outcome? What does the patient and their family think about their outcome? And what does that say about the surgery that we're doing and the care we're giving in the post-operative setting? These outcome measures have not been described really at all in the neurologic literature, perhaps maybe in other domains, but certainly not neurologic literature. And I think a shifting focus towards ability rather than disability. And not just singularly defining ability over disability, but giving both sides of the coin.  I'd like to thank some of my colleagues at the Cleveland Clinic for all the help and effort they've given, as well as Dr. Salmeza here at the McLean Center and open the floor to any questions. Thank you. Questions for Dr. Kelly. I noticed in the destiny two study that two-thirds of the patients or their surrogates elected to have surgery. And one-third did not. That was that based, and now those negotiations sort of taken place between the doctors and the surrogates presumably. You mentioned that that decision was time-sensitive. Can you just comment on how much time sensitivity and why you think two-thirds elected surgery? So there's a well-described literature which looks at variability in surgical decision-making. It's better probably described for interstitial hemorrhage, the kind of stroke where there's bleeding instead of just ischemia. But there's wide variability across institutions and even countries and how aggressive they offer surgical intervention. So certainly the participating trials that probably agreed to this study to begin with were probably the more aggressive institutions. And so the two-thirds agreement rates to have the surgery done reflects more aggressive care institutions probably than all institutions in its entirety. And oftentimes it's clinician-dependent as well. So some clinicians are very negative on this. Some clinicians will emphasize dominant low, dominant hemisphere, like the left side, if there's going to be speech affected, they may be less willing to proceed with an operation versus non-dominant side where speech might not be affected. So there's a lot of institutional variability. Thank you. Please. Hi. I have a question from a slightly different perspective. I'm a staff chaplain advocate at Good Shepherd Hospital in Barrington. I study bioethics through the Nice Wenger Institute at Loyola. So I'm there in the emergency room as the chaplain. The woman comes in. She's had a massive stroke. There is an advanced directive. Just last week she and her husband discussed we don't want excessive interventions. The EDDoc does a beautiful job of taking the husband, showing him the monitor, showing him the extent of the stroke, and says, your wife is not going to survive this. You're going to have to prepare yourself. Husband starts to cry. Turns to me, I make sure their sacramental needs are met. The priest comes. I'm comforting them. All of the children are in agreement. This is what mom wanted. The neurosurgeon comes in. Well, we have a surgery we can offer. It's probably not going to do a lot of good, but it's the only chance we have. So we have to go ahead with it. Family under duress. You know, they're frantic. They agree to the neurosurgery. And then they go on a five-day roller coaster ride that involves staying in the ICU and a lot of ups and downs. And finally, the outcome, of course, is the same. The poor lady dies. So how do we better address these situations so that people get consistent messages that allow them to really make the decisions in accordance with these advanced directives and so forth? I think that's a great question. And I think part of the problem we have, at least in neurosurgery and perhaps this is true in other surgical specialties, is protocolized decision-making. Not that it tells you what to do, but just that there are certain factors you need to look for in making your decision. Maybe you bring thresholds to match that you need to say, we've looked at these parameters, and this is why I'm offering this operation. We do a poor job of that neurosurgery, and that probably accounts for a lot of the variability that you see from institution to institution or even surgeon to surgeon. And so it's very difficult, I think, for some patients. It's difficult even for residents, those of us who rotate at different hospitals and then rotate with different attendings, seeing the different decision-making processes and trying to come up with your own way of figuring this out. The criteria that people use shift sometimes, and that lack of consistency can be frustrating for families, I think even for trainees as well. One mic. Thanks so much.


Hello everybody, I am Dr. Kesha Wallase from Walton Institute of Technology, Sohlapur. In today's session, we will be talking about basic inventory models, how the inventory models are formed, basically pertaining to the variables in defining the model. At the end of this session, students will be able to understand the basics of inventory control, its variables in inventory control and more importantly, different variables which we need to consider while defining any inventory control model. Now, these things are discussed in earlier video, we will briefly revise it. What is inventory? Now inventory is basically the stock of goods required in manufacturing, the final product of any manufacturing industry. Here I repeat, we are not considering, these things are discussed in earlier video, I again repeat here, we are only considering inventory items which go into manufacturing the product and not the items like stationery, furniture etc. Then inventory control refers to optimizing the levels of all these inventory items so that the inventory related costs will be kept to a minimum level. Next is, there are basically three types of inventories, raw material, work in process and finished goods. Coming to the variables is a main part of our discussion today. All the variables related in inventory control are grouped in two areas or two groups, one is controlled or controllable variables, second is uncontrolled variables. Now controlled variables are like quantity and time, any inventory model cycle if we consider that basically constitutes of quantity on vertical axis and time on horizontal axis. Of course, there are additional parameters or variables also but basically quantity and time they define the inventory model and uncontrolled variables are like different inventory related costs such as holding cost or also called as inventory carrying cost, shortage cost or also called as stock out cost and set up cost or ordering cost. Next point is the demand, not demand in the market for any product is always unpredictable that you can never control and one more parameter is the lead time. Lead time is the time between placing the order for certain material and getting the material. So, now there are so many parameters which control the lead time hence it is very difficult to control these three categories of variables and hence they fall under uncontrolled variables that is inventory costs, demand for the items and the lead time. So, these are the major uncontrolled variables in inventory control. At this point of time I expect the viewers to list down different activities for automobile industry but particularly pertaining to different types of inventory costs. For example like watchman salary and allied types of activities and under which cost type they come that is what I want you people to think for a while. Now coming to the main area of our today's discussions that is how inventory models are formed. As we have discussed controlled variables they become the strategic decision making part of any industry and they are determined, they are derived from a set of assumption of certain variables uncontrolled variables and other parameters like production rate. Now whatever you assume like for example shortage is permitted not permitted or what is a consumption rate or which is production rate what do you assume are they zero are they infinite are they permitted not permitted. So, based on the set of assumption of such variables we get the model as a set of assumptions changes the model will be changing thus symbolically if we discuss q if we represent as the quantity inventory quantity and t as a cycle time then this q and t are the major variables of interest in defining any inventory model and other variables that we need to assume may include variables such as consumption rate r or it can also be called as annual demand then lead time l production rate k whether this production rate is finite or infinite like this we have a set of many more variables to be assumed here and assumption of such a set of different variables will give us a particular inventory control model as the set of assumptions changes the variables how we assume they changes then the inventory model definitely will be different. Let us discuss brief procedure a common standard procedure for derivation of economic order quantity just to make the process easy to remember very first is we calculate holding cost now this holding cost is calculated on annual basis wherein we consider the unit holding cost this unit holding cost normally is specified as rupees per unit item per unit time hence we multiply this unit cost by number of quantity items or units that we are holding in the stock and again it is multiplied by cycle time. So, while we multiply this unit holding cost by quantity items we are holding in stock and the cycle time we get the holding cost for a cycle and if that is multiplied again by number of cycles in a year all together we get this as the annual holding cost. Now, coming to shortage cost this also moves exactly on same line like holding cost what changes here is here we consider unit shortage cost and unit for this the specified measurement unit is again rupees per unit item of shortages and per unit time. So, in upper case we consider holding quantity here we are considering shortage quantity. Hence, unit shortage cost we multiply by number of shortage units shortage quantity and cycle time. So, this will give per cycle shortage cost multiply by number of cycles will give us the annual shortage cost thirdly set up cost normally it is specified as rupees per set up per cycle per order. Now, that we multiply simply by number of cycles we get set up cost for the year thus all these three cost elements that we have calculated we have determined here if we add them all together if we sum it up here that gives us the total inventory cost. Coming to further steps cost equation that we got as discussed in earlier slide that is a function of parameter q that is quantity it is a function of still many more parameters. But, now as we intend to know q we can partially differentiate that cost equation with respect to q for cost to be minimum I repeat the total cost to be minimum that cost equation we need to partially differentiate with respect to q and equate it to 0. While we simplify this and get ultimately what is q is equal to small q is equal to then that relation what we get is nothing but economic order quantity. So, this how we get the total cost equation we differentiate that with respect to q and solving it for q we get economic order quantity. This economic order quantity if we put back into the cost equation then that cost what we get will be the minimum inventory cost associated with economic order quantity. Now, in this graph we will see how it is graphically represented here this graph represents inventory cost on vertical axis and quantity items inventory items on horizontal axis. Now, as the quantity increases holding cost increases that is indicated by this particular straight line. Similarly, as the quantity increases this setup cost curve this particular line this setup cost decreases. Now, as quantity increases one cost increases other cost decreases if we see this particular summation then to the left of this point cost increases and again to the right of this point again the cost increases. Hence, we have our interest in determining this particular point which represents E O Q that is economic order quantity on horizontal axis and associated minimum cost is represented on vertical axis. Thus, this reason of optimizing inventory quantity and minimizing associated inventory cost and that is a reason why we need to maintain inventory look into inventory control. Thus, I recommend these two points two books one is by S. D. Sharma and second by Hira Gupta. Thank you.


Hey everybody, it's Brett with Summit Auto, and today I am super excited to show you this brand new, our very first 2022 Jeep Wagoneer. This is a Series 3, it has the second row quad seating, it has the premium group, which gives you the McIntosh 950X sound system with the 19 speakers. It has the rear fire TV entertainment system. It also has the tri-pane panoramic sunroof and glass roof. It also has the passenger side video screen, and we'll check all of that out. All the Wagoneers come standard with the 5.7 liter V8 Hemi engine, which is paired up with the e-torque electric motor. And it's going to get you 20 miles per gallon on the highway, 15 city for an average of 17 miles per gallon. It's going to pump out 392 horsepower and 404 foot-pounds of torque. Now the main thing with this Wagoneer is that it's Jeep's full-size three-row seating. This baby can pull up to 10,000 pounds, which is way better than the Tahoe, which pulls 8,400 pounds, and the Expedition, which pulls 9,300 pounds, and those are the sales leaders in this particular segment. Diamond Black is the color. We shoot all of our videos in 1080p, 60 frames per second, so if you have HD capabilities on your computer tablet, smartphone or television, turn them on right now because it is your best way to check out the looks, styling, and options of the vehicle. And we're going to go inside, outside, we're going to turn all the lights on, do a walk around of that. I'm going to show you all the screens and everything that comes along with the Series 3 group. And we're just going to do a really thorough overview of this vehicle. And if you want to subscribe to our YouTube channel where we do videos like this each and every day in the upper right-hand part of the screen is a link to subscribe to our channel. Hit the bell notifications and you'll get updates every time we do the videos. So this is going to come with the 22-inch polished aluminum and black noise painted alloy rims. And they have Goodyear, Eagle Touring tires, these are 285, 45R22s, definitely a highway tread pattern on there. Do really like the lettering on there. You get the American flag, which is kind of, if you've seen the new Grand Cherokee L's, that's kind of the way that Jeep's going with all the American flags. You get the nice power running boards. They're really wide. I would say they're probably five to six inches wide on there. So really nice running boards from the factory. So take a look at the original window sticker. Feel free to pause this. I'm not going to go through everything, but you can see it is a Series 3, 4x4, Diamond Blacks, the Color 5.7, Hemi with the E-Torque, 8-speed automatic transmission. Everything on your left is your standard features. So that includes the adaptive cruise control, remote start, active lane management, full-speed forward collision warning plus, park view camera, park sense front and rear assist with stop, line spot rear cross path detection, pedestrian emergency braking, electronic stability control, hill start assist, and century theft deterrent system. Comes standard with the UConnect 5 NAV with the 10.1-inch display, the 10.25-inch cluster display for the instrument cluster, Apple CarPlay, Google Android Auto, and those are now Wi-Fi, so you don't have to connect them through a cord or anything. So that's cool. You get the 4G LTE Wi-Fi hotspot with trial included, navigation system, Sirius XM360. If you keep going down, wager near connect, wireless charge pad, tri-zone climate control, heated steering wheel, heated seats, and everything that's standard equipment. Also on the top there are the LED headlamps and everything is all standard and the hitch and wiring. So your optional equipment is the Diamond Black, which is $5.95. Second-row quad seating is $5.95 as well. It gives you second-row captain's chairs with power tilt slide and floor console with cup holder, seven-passenger seating. The premium group is a $5,495 option. You get the reverse cargo mat, luxury front and rear floor mats, foldable cargo shade, tri-pane panoramic sunroof, power-deployable running boards, adjustable roof rack with cross bars, 22-inch polished aluminum wheels with black noise pockets, the all-season tires, and then the Macintosh MX950 Entertainment System with 19 speakers. You also get the rear seat entertainment system with the Amazon Fire TVs. Over auto, 10.1-inch rear entertainment screens, video USB port, and then the front passenger interactive display, which is $11.95. Total MSRP is $88.720. To get your summit price in the upper right-hand power screen is a link to our website to get that price. Five-year, 60-power train, three-year, 36-bumper-to-bumper, 15-city, 20-highway average of $17. You can see your fuel economy and small ratings right there. It is not government five-star crash test rated yet. We're going to get to this interior in just a second, and I'm going to show you everything that it has to offer, which is really, really nice. Now if you want to see the shorter version of this video, in the upper right-hand power screen is a link to the short video we did. Basically I just walk around the vehicle real quick, show you the interior, start it up, show you all the screens real quick in the second row and third row seats. We don't get as in-depth as this video. So check that video out. It has a receiver hitch, four-pin and seven-pin wiring. The rear gate is just press the button there. It is a power gate. Here's the floor mat. Here's the cover for the receiver hitch, and that's actually kind of a gray metallic and guessing that's probably Baltic gray. This is your rear sunshade that folds up underneath here. Those are your cross rails for the roof rack. They're not installed yet, and then you have your jack tools underneath here. So the third row seats are power down.  And honestly what impresses me most about this vehicle is the third row itself sitting back there. The room, the comfort of the seats, and we'll get back there in just a second. You can see those seats go up and down real nicely, and when they're down nice and, when they're down flat, they are actually nice and flat. Press this button. It'll beep at you three times, and then it'll begin its descent. Do you really like that lettering on there? It's kind of a finished machined metal look for the wagon-ear block lettering there. LED tail lamps, it does have the capless fuel fill, which is a really nice feature. And they don't have the, it's just the push button to open that, which is really nice. You do get the heated power mirrors, blind spot monitoring, directional signals, and blind spot mirrors in there. There's the enter and go system. And here is the interior. You get the global black leather seats. Both of these seats are heated. Both of these seats are cooled. Driver's side lumbar. These are the premium, or luxury floor mats as they call them. Auto headlamps, power pedals, you get your power telescopic and tilt steering wheel. You get the nice wood grain trim on there, onto the door, power windows, power locks, power mirrors, memory driver's seat, and then the Macintosh sound system. The other thing that really got my attention the first time I drove this was the steering wheel. It's really a nice soft touch leather. It definitely feels like luxury. You get the wagon-ear logo in the center there. Everything is nicely laid out like the normal Chrysler Jeep Ram steering wheels are. And then you have that 10.25 instrument cluster there. And that is quite a system, oil pressure is low because we do not have it running. So you get digital speedometer and everything right there. I'm going to try and dim it down so that we can, can't dim that down. Anyways, you can do your different settings right here. Basically sound, that's your lane departure warning. You can do the nav here as well. I think you actually have to have the vehicle running and all that for that to work. But you get your digital speedometer there and you can do, or you can make it like that and it will give you your adaptive cruise control and all that good stuff right there with the driver assist. Now this is the Uconnect 10 inch, 10.1 inch radio, the Uconnect 5. This is run off of Android Auto. And the cool thing about this radio is it's five times faster just from a processing speed like switching screens, going as stuff loads up. It's five times faster than the previous Uconnect 4C version. So it's a lot faster, it's a lot more responsive. I think it's a lot easier to use, it's a little bit more intuitive, but it's, it's really a nice system.  They have quick buttons on the side here as well that you can press. Of course you get the factory navigation system. You can check out your vehicle, all the different stuff in here. The second row headrest you can power fold down, third row headrest you can power fold down. You can turn that passenger side screen on and off and you can see that screen right there that is really cool. So basically the passenger can use that screen, you can plug in an HDMI cable down here, which is really neat. There's your wireless cell phone charge pad and you know they can basically I guess play video games or something off of there. The other neat thing that I was told, I haven't tried it out yet, but that you can actually control, you could like program a navigation point from there so that the driver doesn't have to do it. That's a lot of cool stuff that you can do and then you have all your different apps in here of course and one of the cool apps that I saw, I was playing around with before.  You can do Android Auto, Apple CarPlay, has the marketplace on there.  So that's part of the Quadra Track 2 system, which is this right here. So you can change that, you can see it changes it right up there as well, sand and then rock, you'd have to put it to four-wheel-drive low, just like the other ones. But then you have Sport Mode, which changes your shift points and gives you a little bit better throttle response. So all that you can do and then you can do your suspension. So this has the Quadra Lift Suspension, so you can raise and lower it, very cool stuff there. Back to all the different apps. The one thing that I was trying out before, it's got this kind of crazy Relax Mode, oh there it was. So you can do Relax Mode and what it'll do is it'll play music and it'll give you a relaxing screen. I was doing just a little bit of research on the vehicle before and I had this on and it was really calming and it helped me, you know, kind of forget about what I was doing and just took the, and it plays it on the passenger side there. Gives this kind of ambient hum to the vehicle. Really cool. Anyways, just check out how this dash is laid out, goes into the instrument cluster there. Check out that Tri-Pane Panoramic Sun Roof. The third row seats have a Sun Roof as well, or Glass Roof I should say. Just a really cool setup, really nice design on everything. Everything is really ergonomic. The seats are extremely comfortable. This is your automatic transmission shifter. Start stop, lane departure, stability control, parking sensors, all that good stuff, toll hall. Has the neutral setting for flat towing, so yes you can flat tow this vehicle. Downhill assist control as well, or hill descent control, as it's called. Those are push buttons too, but the trim here, get the cup holder, the key fob is the kind of rectangle new Jeep style key fob that they have, remote start, power lift gate, and it's the entry and go system too. And then you get center console storage here. You also get a little storage bin right here with a USB and USB-C plug in, and here is your control for the rear fire TV screens. Speaking of that, we'll go take a look at the back seats. You can leave that ambient relax mode on. So the second row seats here, these are sliding. They do adjust, and they have a bar underneath to do that. You can see they slide up like so, and they also slide back like that. Now you can put them down two different ways. So you can put just the backrest down, and then it kind of goes down nice and flat. Don't do it too close to that screen, because I could see that headrest smacking into that if you have the seat all the way up and you put that down, but you can see they go nice and flat, so when you have those third row seats in the flat mode, actually I think we can even put that seat down with the buttons right there, which is a really nice feature.  So there are your cup holders, here's your rear air controls, these second row seats are heated. You get a 115 volt, 150 watt plug-in, two USBs, two USB-C's, and then your Fire TV displays are right here. So basically if you're hooked up to Wi-Fi, or if you have the 4G LTE subscription, you can basically run your Fire TV stick. It's just like a Fire TV stick, where you can run YouTube or all your different apps. If you have logins, you can basically watch TV in your car, really cool, definitely a game changer when it comes to vehicles and long trips and just keeping everybody entertained. So to get to that third row, these seats kind of fold up like the Pacificas do, and then you can fold those forward to get into the third row. Now this is the big thing for Jeep and Chrysler is to have a full third row vehicle that the seats are comfortable, you have plenty of leg room, you have plenty of head room, you can see I have plenty of room back here. You also get a USB and a USB-C back here, and then these seats recline just a little bit and they also can go forward, but they're kind of back as far as they can be, but they're just very, very comfortable seats compared to like the Grand Cherokee Ally was just in the other day, lots of room, and then the other thing is just the height of the vehicle. So getting in and out of here for somebody that's a little bit taller is really nice. I can get out easily, these running boards make it really easy to get out as well, and they really, really did a nice job. And I don't think it's that easy to get out of a Tahoe or an expedition. The other thing is they have the lighting on the floor, I don't know if you can see it, we got too many lights on in here, but what I'm going to do now is I'm going to start up the vehicle and we're going to do a walk around, final walk around with all the lights on so that you can see it all lit up, yeah you can kind of see it right there, the Wagonier logo comes from the mirror there to be illuminated on the floor, and we'll do one more final walk around here, I would personally like to thank you for checking out the video today and hopefully from this HD video you've gotten a really good idea of the overall looks, styling, feel of the all-new Jeep Wagonier, diamond blacks, the color on this one, look at all those LED headlamps, LED running lights, obviously the seven-slotted grille, and to see more pictures of this Jeep or one of our other 450 new and used cars, trucks, SUVs, go to that website right there, summitauto.com. Thanks again for checking out the video, if you want to check out more videos you can go to youtube.com slash summitauto, remember to like, subscribe and share on this video and all the videos that you see there, click the bell notifications, you'll get updates on the videos we do each and every day, in fact in a second you will see a link to subscribe to our YouTube channel in the upper left, a link to more Jeep Wagonier videos like this one in the upper right, a link to this vehicle on our website in the lower left, and a link to one of our latest YouTube videos in the lower right, click those, check us out, and thanks again for checking out the video and remember to like, subscribe and share.


Tomorrow I'm gonna propose to my girlfriend Kasia. She loves God and seeks to follow him with her whole heart She's so fun. She's vibrant beautiful. I could just go on and on forever honestly. I can't wait to marry her


Marines taking division school's urban leaders course conducted a three-day exercise that was designed to test the skills they gained over the past three weeks. This cumulative event simulated a deployed environment and included raids, urban combat drills, roadside bomb simulations, and gas drills aboard Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton, California, April 9th. The course's purpose was to teach small unit leaders the fundamentals of urban combat tactics while building leadership skills in the process. We're looking for some pretty seasoned guys, whether Mew or combat deployment. We're just looking for somebody to come in who can understand the operations order, understand where they fall into the planning process, and then lead a fire team or squad. Most of the students taking the course are non-commissioned officers and are already leaders in their own units. The point of the training is to make them better leaders and show them how to conduct urban combat tactics so they can pass that knowledge to their junior Marines and peers. Instructors and students alike agreed these skills are important for Marines now more than ever. As time goes on, more and more people are moving into cities, so as that happens, combat evolves to where you're not really, you know, fighting on hilltops and open fields like you were before. A lot of the fighting is going to be going on in these large population centers. The students caught on quickly and were able to adapt and overcome the obstacles the instructors threw at them. With the knowledge and skills the students gained from the course, the Marine Corps will have no shortage of excellent leaders. Reporting from Camp Pendleton, California, I'm Corporal Christopher Moore.


Um, so this looks like a properly nerdy crowd. So that's really good. Um, what we're going to do is we are going to do a much deeper dive into the improvements to, um, indicator expressions. Um, really, to be honest with you guys, we've been making a lot of improvements with this. And I think that basically no one is using it. I get, we get, we get virtually no feedback, nor do we get any bugs reported. And that's usually the first feedback that we get is if there are bug reports, then someone's actually using it. And then we're like, Oh, great. What are you actually doing with it? You know, and then you kind of get into it. But, you know, DHS two, um, has been, I would just let's be honest with each other all friends here, woefully inadequate when it comes to indicator calculations for a long time. Um, and we're still not there. We have a long way to go. Um, but I think that we're starting to tick off some of the major boxes. You know, I come from a public health background and coming in and working and moving to the University of Oslo and working, you know, a lot of folks here were not public health people. They're, they're kind of techies, right? You know, they're like informatic software folks. And appreciating the types of indicators that are critically important for public health or clinical surveillance or these kind of things was, you know, not always, not always in their kind of purview and what they were thinking. So, so, so, but that started to change. You know, we have more public health folks, we have clinical, we have clinical advisors, we have people who are medical doctors who worked with us full time. We have a new, we have great collaborations with WHO and CDC and all these partners. And so they're feeding us requirements. And I think that's the point I want to make now is feed us requirements, right? We can continue to innovate and evolve with this. This is actually an area where we can move more rapidly. Like if you want me to significantly change data visualizer application, that's going to take some time. It's not impossible, but it takes some time. Indicator expressions is something that we have been able to move much, much more quickly with, mainly because of Jim. And, and so what we're going to do is we're going to go over the progress that we have made, we're actually going to go back to 236 and just go through essentially everything. And, and then we're going to, so make sure that you kind of get the whole breadth and view of the improvements that have been made. Try to layer in some practical examples for you to keep it contextual. And then we want to hear from you and then we want to hear what feedback you have to us what you want. If you think that some of this is garbage, please tell us. And now that being said, today is a little bit of an overview presentation. There's always there's time for Q&A. But tomorrow afternoon after we have an experts lounge where Jim and I will be sitting there and you can just come up and talk to us and we can go into something more detail we could talk something more specific about your implementation or use case. Any kinds of more detailed questions you have. We'll have time for that tomorrow afternoon after after the session. So what I'm going to do now is just give a little bit of kind of a contextual overview of why we're doing what we're doing. And then I'm going to hand it off to Jim to get into some of the details. And then, unfortunately, I have to go out to a tracker session. So I'm going to have to leave and just hand it over to Jim, but he's you're in you're in very, very good hands, the best hands better than mine, because he actually made the stuff. So let's have this working. Yeah. Are we moving? We're not moving. Green light means go. No, doesn't help. You're right. It worked 10 minutes ago. If technology worked all the time, most of us wouldn't have jobs, right? So is it working now? No, it's not even working. Oh, that's not even working there. It's completely dead to us. This is like the mouse is even working. The click works. Oh, it didn't have the focus. Now it has the focus that will probably work too. Okay. Okay, so let's let's talk about one really big change. So in DHS 2.37, we introduced a new functionality called period offset. Has anyone used period offset? That's surprisingly more you've tried. Did it work? No, we should fix that. Things don't always work. Oh, okay. We have not worked and it worked. So that's 50% work. That's good. Okay, so period. It's been fixed. There were some bugs that have been fixed. So please try it again and let me know. Yeah. So Pete, you'll check that now, huh? All right. So let's talk about period offset. Why did we make period offset? The main use case for period offset that we've that we've been chasing for a long time is the ability to calculate coverage indicators. Who all knows about the annualized feature of indicators? A couple, a couple more hands. Okay, so essentially, in previous versions of DHS 2, we had a, we had a button, right? The button said if you're making an indicator, it said annualized. What did that button do? Essentially, if you're making an indicator this coverage, right? So you have something like BCG doses given, and then that's over a target or a population. The BCG dose is given is coming, that data is coming in monthly, usually in many countries. It could be coming in more frequently than that even. The denominator here, which is live births or annual target, this is typically annual data. So this is just one data point once per year, right?  So any month that you looked, it just put, you know, that month's value times 12 over the denominator, live births or annual target, right? I mean, but what we're representing there with that number is an annualized value. Not just a multiplication, not, it shouldn't, you know, not just a times 12. Like what is communicating to the user is this represents a average over 12 months, essentially, or a running value over 12 months. But we didn't actually do that. We just times the numerator by 12. Right? So, not great. I mean, that was, that was the workaround several years ago. What essentially what we're doing is we're assuming that all the months are from are the similar values, right? Every month you expect the same number of BCG doses given. And then that would be the assumption to make that value slightly more accurate. But that's not a safe assumption. Many countries have lots of seasonality.  So if you're just assuming that every month has the same values, or if, in fact, all the months do have the same values, then maybe this is appropriate way. But virtually that's very, very rare, or at least not common enough to just times the numerator by 12 is the default option. Right? So what do we do? So period offset essentially allows you to add up all of, you know, as many previous periods as you want. So you can say I want this month and I want the previous 11 months in my numerator. Same data element, just different moving back across through time. And put that again over the live births or annualized targets. So that doesn't change the numerator stays changes to factor in all the previous months. Numerate or denominator stays the same, essentially in this example. So what this does is it actually uses the real values that were reported, not just times in the numerator time for this month times 12. You know, it doesn't really make a difference. Well, in our test databases. It makes a slight difference. To be honest, I mean, our test databases are heavily normalized, though we don't have the crazy kind of fluctuations that you see in actual country implementations. But, but I'm really curious if someone could just put this into their, their clone or their test instances of the country database and see what the actual differences between period offset coverage indicator versus an annualized coverage indicator.  Right. Does this make sense. Any questions, is it confusing. Yeah, of course you guys. In this example, that's correct. But I mean, of course, like if you have a financial year that's a separate kind of period than like this, like monthly. So there you know and I think a lot of people have kind of figured out practical workarounds to the annualized problem. But this kind of just, we try to get to the core. Yeah, john, did you have a question. Oh yeah. Yeah. That's a really good question. So the, the, the official DHS to answer is the people that the databases that you have access to could give you permission to do this. You can give someone permission and DHS to just to be able to edit one indicator and not do anything else. But that's a complexity of system administrator administration that very few implementation seemingly get to.  But that requires them to do probably 15 more clicks than what they usually want to do. Yeah, exactly. So another thing you can always do is, is play with these on the, on the demo, you know, on the demo system you have all privileges and it's not the real world data right then you need to talk to somebody in your instance to get the indicator to run on on your instance, but you could at least play with the functionality and learn more about it. I got to repeat the questions for you. So there was a question over here. Yes. Could this be easily integrated into pivot tables repeating the question for the. That's a very, very good question. Coming in the future of DHS to and we're scoping out the requirements now, we will have a expression builder in some of the data visualizer applicant in the data visualization applications, because we know that is john was pointing out that you don't have as much permission in DHS to as they need. And so they want to do what we call on the fly indicators. So I just have my pivot table I want to add a row or column, and I want to do just like you do in Excel push enter and then plug in my own expression. So that's something that we're exploring. Of course, it's very complex functionality and a bit of a rabbit hole. So we've got to we've got to nail down those specific user stories where that should be enabled. You know, we also have to build a graphical expression builder that and that is better than Excel, and Excel has 10,000 developers and they can't do it well so we've got to figure out some way to do it. Patrick, you have a question. And this how to do coverage for this year you're asking like for year year to date so far within the year. That's that's something we're actually working on also for the next version 2.39 year today. Because like the exact I think the maybe the reason you're coming to this is like, because everybody, maybe you're used to slicking the data visualizer and building a cumulative bar chart. Or something like that, where that's essentially year to date. That's make a cumulative bar chart and then you say last 12 months and then you see that that essentially is a new indicator expression that we're working on. Okay, so that was one example. I'm going to jump to another example now. The other one that we've been doing and this is really small I'm sorry you can't really see this but but Jim is going to go over it in more detail. And I think that has, we've made a lot of progress on is the ability to put in relatively complex logic statements in the indicator expression so like things like if statements is no is not know that kind of stuff right so for the average user this is probably going to be a little bit different because they don't know if statements and you know these kind of things, even for a lot of system administrators but for hopefully some, you know, epidemiologist program leaders, maybe some more, you know, technical people, they would be able to put this kind of stuff in one of the really seemingly important metrics for immunization campaigns. And please if you want to work on a lot of immunization campaigns tell me I'm wrong. At least WHO has made it seem very clear to us that they need to be able to look at ratios, they need to have a metric, a kind of a composite indicator if you will, that is a ratio between other variables, essentially other indicators. And the performance of those various indicators results in the assignment of a, you know, good score bad score kind of simple thing.  So what we've been working on is this example here, which is the ratio between the relationship between DPT one to three dropout and DPT coverage. So these are two different indicators DP dropout and coverage. And what we have are these assigned for categories. So we have category one two three and four. You see that in category one, for example, coverage is greater than or equal to 90% dropout is less than or equal to 10%.  Essentially, we want one indicator that assigns a value one to four to each org unit based upon this these criteria. Okay, so what we we can achieve this with nested if statements, so we can just go if, if this then one, if not, then this, if not, then this, if not, then this, and it just. So, you know, a sign of one, a sign of two, a sign of three, a sign of four. And, you know, you get something like this where you have ones twos threes and fours. And then you can make a legend for it and then you can put it on your dashboard pivot table make a simple scorecard. But this is just an example of you can do. I mean, from a from a computer programming perspective, very simple things, but from like a DHS to implement implementation perspective relatively complex things. So like these nested if statements. And the coverage and this, you know, the coverage indicators and this indicators were kind of the two things that started to drive a lot of expansions. So this is just two examples of two different functionalities. But as Jim is going to start to go through there's a lot more here. But I just kind of wanted to give you a little bit of background context of these are kind of the things that we're looking at. So if you have weird indicators. I say weird but like indicators that you're not currently able to calculate. Please tell us about them. And we want to work with you to try to figure out how we can do it. We may not be able to. You know, like what you're saying. Oh, come on Pete, you may not be able to. You know this requires a lot of typing.  You know, there's not. We have some simple commands and controls down here, but it's really not that much right you kind of just have to know that this works, or you just have to be willing to experiment with it. Once you do put it in then we have this translator down here that kind of tells you hey is actually we recognize that. Yeah. The if statement has actually been there since 34, and I will go over that along with all the other expressions on each slide it will shape which version that particular function has been in since so hopefully you'll get that question answered for this and everything else. So 34 is quite old so you have no excuse. That's why we're trying to tell the world about it because no one is. It's in the release notes but you know people don't read. Yeah. Anyways, so so I just want to give you two practical examples these are again like these are coming to us these requirements coming to us from WHO and others. And just to again reiterate, if you have things like this please tell us again we can move more quickly. And we don't we want to minimize the necessity to do things. You know, in special scripts and that kind of stuff and I know a lot of folks here probably make their business doing special scripts but I mean, you don't necessarily have to tell the client you can just put it here and then. I'm kidding that's a joke. Don't. That doesn't sound good. Okay. I'm going to hand it over to Jim and, but we'll both be sitting there tomorrow afternoon. So if you have additional questions, you can come up and see us then. And unfortunately I've got to go tell people how to not keep tracker from breaking. Thank you Scott. I'm sorry that Scott is leaving I again I'm often down in the weeds and I'll talk about the expression syntax for, for lots of these things. And I may or may not be able to answer questions about application but if if you get lost in the technical thing and you want to ask well, can you do this. Can you do that please ask, and if I can answer it I will. So when we say expressions what does that mean expressions are formulas that you can use in any of these objects in DHS to indicators, validation rules predictors program indicators and program rules and I'll focus in this talk mostly on the first three. They, the, the expressions for program indicators and program rules often have a kind of different syntax. So let's start with the if statement. It's been there since 2.34. But a lot of people don't know it and that's why we're starting with it it's obviously a very powerful tool. One example is you can test to see if some numbers positive you can return one if it's positive or else zero and then you can then you can count these over organization units. So this is the expression that Scott just showed us for putting things in in four categories. It's saying if in an indicator expression with the end keyword you can actually invoke another indicator inside the indicator. So this first indicator already computes something complicated it may compare different data elements, whatever so you're saying if this is there and that is there then the answer is one. And simply by nesting these if statements you end up with a lot of parentheses at the end you have to close them all. It's a little bit awkward but it works. And it lets you calculate something fairly complex any questions about that. Yeah, not all of these have made it unfortunately into the into the front end expression builder again you got to you got to read the manual or attend this talk and learn that. The question was about the indicators it's not there in the in the visual expression builder in the user interface so it's it's kind of a hidden feature of expressions. But again, sorry about that, maybe someday we'll get the front end to keep up, keep pace with the back end but meanwhile, you know make sure you're scour the release notes in the and the documentation each time. The period offset function. This was in the. Oh yes, another question. The question is what's possible and with textual analytics. And in the last couple of releases we've done some work on in validation rules and predictors and being able to compare textual data values, not yet and predict and indicators because it's it's really assuming that everything is is numeric that you're but you could have a validation rule now since 2.36 or a predictor that compares a data element value with a quoted text string and that should work. And we don't have, we don't have, we could go nuts with the syntax right we could make substring or if the left or if the right. But we don't want to just go nuts because we could we want to know what the use cases are so if you have more use cases. Please talk talk with with us about that on the community site or put in a, a, a JIRA ticket saying this is my use case. It's very important also please when you make a request for a new feature. Say what the use cases say why you need it that helps us prioritize things internally we say oh, this is this is a compelling use case we better prioritize that feature. Don't just say, we want the expression to do this when this when this happens tell us why build build your case. That's very important and very helpful for us. Period offset this is in the first example that Scott gave a very simple thing as you can say you can compare the current value with last months or last weeks whatever period you've chosen for for the data.  And you can also do it again in the example that Scott showed, you can get a rolling annual account by taking this month's value, plus last month's value, and so on up to up to 11 months in the past. And that's the actual formula that that showed the slide that Scott showed. This is a period offset is just in indicators. So if you look at the slide and thank you I should I should highlight that up on each slide I'll say what, what kind of expression it can be used in, and since when so the period offset has been there since two 35 predictors has a different way of getting past period data. And to do that also it's, it's in a sense more constricted but, but in some ways also more flexible, and we can we can talk about that a bit later or if it's not covered please come ask me. Aggregation type. This is for indicators and just released in two to 38 Elmarie is smiling she's been asking for this function for years. And finally got it in up until now if you have an indicator, if you're sorry if you have a data element and you're using it in an indicator. Then the data element aggregation type is some, but that's all you get, you can't say, tell me count the values or tell me average the values all you get a sum. So the aggregation type allows you to say, I want to count of the values or I want the average of the values. And that's all there is about that. Yes, for program indicators. The question is you can be able you could you have been able to count. Ask the count it by using a d2 function for quite some time in program indicators but not some other things like first, first or last. And indicators and program rules. I have all these d2 functions. And if you have a use case again please tell us the use case. You're right that currently can't be done with program indicators. Yeah. Oh, that's right. So, the question is you can have a place in the user interface to specify an aggregation type but it doesn't work. There is a custom aggregation. I'm a little bit out of my league because I'm not as, as familiar, but you can specify a data element, a program data element with custom aggregation which means you'll, you'll put the formula into the actual program indicator formula. And when we initially rolled out program indicators with the new expression technology that didn't work that's since been fixed and patched. So you might come, please come talk to me after we can figure out what version you're using and whether there's an answer there. Pete. All right, well, ping me get send me send me a message with that Jira ticket and I'll see if I can help get attention on it. The comment was that it still may not be working the custom aggregation types for program indicators. This is new in 2.38 for indicators. And this is something that Scott covered in the in the opening session. If you have rules that change over the years. I know that that PEPFAR has a case where the way they collected data in one year. They had certain data from a data element that was vital to be counted. And in another year that same data repeated some other data and so it shouldn't be counted when you're when you're doing the sum across years. And Scott tells me that in some facilities in some installations, they actually have different indicators depending on the year. If you want the 2018 data you have to run the 2018 indicator. It's a little changed in 2019. It's a little different. So this allows you to say, take this formula, take this data up until the end of 2018 and take this data from the start of 2019 or take this data for 2021 only. You can have a minimum date and a maximum date you can combine them to have both, or you can just say a minimum or just a maximum if you want. Any questions about that? Yes. Yes. Yes. That's right. The way the observation was this works already. If you have data that you're collecting from one year and a data element, and you're collecting another year in a different data element, and you add them both. Well, you'll only find that data in this year. You only find the other data in the next year and it will work seamlessly. It will work perfectly. What this is useful for is if you collect data in both years in the same data element, but you change the rules. So you should count it from that data element in this year, but from the same data element in the next year you should not count it. And this lets you do that. Good. Good question. Jason. Yes, you can say one, but not the other. This example shows both, but they're independent. You can chain them together or you can just use one. Except that the if statement doesn't really give you access to the date of the data. It could be if there were some placeholder for the date, which there isn't yet. The date is not a variable that you can use in expressions yet, but you can specify the date in these functions. Yes. Yes. The question is if you have two different data elements that are collecting the same kind of data and you want to compare them. The answer is if you have, you want the denominator to be showing maybe expected pregnancies or actual pregnancies. And I think I'm going to agree with the answer that came up from here. Those are two different indicators. You want to switch from one to the other. Yeah. Any suggestions, how do you switch from one to the other? Okay, thank you. Sub-expression. Made it in at the last second and we decided rather than roll it out in 2.38 we'd wait until 2.38.1. Sub-expression starts to get at some of the limitations of indicators where you've had to use predictors in the past and I will talk later in the talk about indicators and predictors and when you might use one when you might use the other. Sub-expression basically lets you, lets you make an expression that will happen down in the database before the data gets aggregated. Usually if you use an if statement in an indicator expression, if you say if this value is greater than one or greater than 100 or whatever you want to do. It goes and fetches the data from the database and aggregates it over all the organization units in your district or country or whatever. And then in the indicator expression, you're just looking at that value already aggregated. Sub-expression lets you look at each raw data value. So for each organization unit down in that you're reporting on. So you can do a test. For example, if the number of malaria cases is greater than 100, put one for that organization unit, that facility else zero. And then when you look at this in an indicator, you can sum the ones and zeros and actually get the count of the number of organization units. That's more than 100 malaria cases whatever is in the test. Yes. Very good question. I'll repeat it for the zoom audience can rather than having one data item, can you have multiple data items so you can get a ratio and say is it more than 30% or something like that. We know that that is a big use case. And right now the only way to do that is to use predictors and I'll talk about that a little bit later. This is very limited. And that's a perfect question for the rest of the setup for the rest of the slide. The limitation of sub expression at least at the moment is that you can only have one data element. Now you can repeat that data element multiple times in the sub expression so you can say if it's greater than or equal to 51 and that same data element is less than 100. This can be a data element or it can be a what we call a data element operand the data element dot category option combo, but it has to repeat exactly the same to use it with a category option combo. Once in the expression it must be used also in the same expression the same way. So we realize that this is a very limited number of cases that we could accommodate by introducing sub expression in 2.38. And actually I had the idea for doing this in the first place and I went to Scott said it's just even worth doing because I know that people want to do it for multiple data elements. And Scott said, yes, there's enough case there's enough use cases out there that this provides some use and it's worth doing for 2.38. So we'll be on there the difficulty the technical difficulty in the database is that each data element is on a different row of the SQL database. And so when you're doing analytics it's hard to say, you know, take one row, compare it to a different row, because we, we, one of the goals is we want to keep indicators very perform it. We don't want to slow them way down by doing, you know, sub queries and extra table joins and stuff. So it's something we know it's a it's a pressing need. You can, you can do it using predictors for now. Yes, other questions. Sure. Yeah, the question is building on the use case that Scott showed on the first slide, where you have different facilities in category 123 or four, then an obvious thing you want to do is for for a district or region a country you want to see how many facilities were in category one, how many in category two, three and four. Yes, and the answer at the moment is you must use predictors for that. But we understand that that would be a great thing if we could make that just work in indicators and we keep, we keep wrapping our heads against that and trying to figure out and maybe we will. A new function that was introduced, we're going to move a little way a little away from indicators for the moment. And this is a function that was introduced in 2.37 for predictors and validation rules. We had some people coming to us and say, we want to, we want to we need predictors we want to to make a prediction, but we want them only for one country. We're an NGO that's working in several different countries. And we just want to, we just want to run the predictors for Senegal, or we want to, to run them also for Sierra Leone but with, with different parameters. So this is a simple org unit dot ancestor test, and you can give one or more UIDs of organizations and you can test to see what part of the organization unit tree is the predictor or the validation rule is being run for and you can adjust the formula based on that. Any questions similarly for organization unit groups. If you have it set up so that you want the validation rule or the predictor to behave differently if it's a public facility versus a private facility or whatever other kind of organization unit groups you have. Again, you can put in the UID of the organic group and this could be both this and the previous one you can you can have more than one UID and here you ID one comma you ID to and so on. True. True. Good point. Would this be useful for for indicators. Please tell us why. Please tell us why in a Jira ticket. I would love doing all kinds of, of, of wonderful things because I'm an engineer and I geek out on this stuff and I'd like to put in a zillion strength comparison functions and but Lars and others have cautioned me that we try to do what the users need not what the engineers think it would be would be fun. Right, there are plenty there in general we've been playing catch up with the with the indicators and predictors and validation rules that there are some. It's kind of been a parallel development there have been some d2 functions that you can use in in program rules and program indicators, some of them are more sophisticated. In some cases some of these new functions maybe, maybe more sophisticated than those so yes it's. Then in 2.38 a couple of other tests that we thought would be useful. Again for predictors and validation rules you can see if the organization unit has been assigned to a data set, or if it has been assigned to a program. And you can change the way an expression calculation works based on that information as well. It's like a series of four functions the, the org unit ancestor or unit group or unit data set and org unit program. This should be organic program ignore what it's when it says data set. I finished this slide deck yesterday sorry about that. Yes. Yes, this, this can be any any logic you want yeah. The question is about in the data visualizer and I think what I'm hearing is is maybe similar to what Elmer he said about the last slide. Would it be useful to have this in indicator formulas as well. Yeah it's not it's only predictors and validation rules, but great ideas I mean this was requested for for predictors in particular, but I'm hearing that this and the previous functions. And many others would be useful for for indicators as well. Please please write your tickets. They're using number of actual reports versus what actual reports for a specific data set. Sure, sure. So, again, you could do it now with predictors if you use predictor to to make other data values. But but please please write us your time I only get to implement what's in a Jira ticket so please please write me a Jira ticket. Yes question here. That's that's one reason why I'm staying in Oslo for four days after this. So we can one of the things we want to talk about. So interestingly enough predictors started when we were doing disease surveillance. And that's why the name predict and predictor. The idea is if you have a certain number of malaria cases in the past. What do you predict should be the average or what should be a cutoff above which you might want to investigate a possible outbreak and the standard formula we were given at the time as well. So, you want something that's the mean plus twice the standard deviation or the mean plus 1.5 times the standard deviation whatever whatever multiplier, you could put that in a, in a function, and look at all the malaria cases for the last 12 months because it's seasonally varying you want you don't you want to go back a year and two years and three years at the same time, and take all that data from the last three years and predict them for the current and as I was as I was writing the predictor engine. I noticed that for for past period data you always had to have an aggregation function you always wanted to say, this is the malaria account. So you always have to have an aggregation function around the past period data say what do you want to do with it. And I was just writing this and I thought well what if they don't put an aggregation function. I could either say it's invalid, or I could just plug in the current period value and so that's what I did just just to make it useful. And it turns out lots of people have been now using predictors just to take the current period value and and count the organization units count the ratio of these two data elements for an organization unit and use that predictor and so on. So the predictors operate from in aggregate data they opposite operate from the data value table and they they have much more flexibility and doing things at the granular level. We do want to to bring indicators and predictors closer together in the future and and I have some ideas about that that I need to further season with my colleagues at university. But that's the point well taken what's what's the future of predictors versus indicators and when do you have to use one versus the other. And we would like to get that a lot more integrated. Jason. Yeah, I won't try to repeat everything Jason said for the zoom users but the comment was dealing with the, the functionality between indicators and validation rules and and they, they. Why do we have two different things why can't we use validation rule out outcomes in in analytics, we have five minutes, let me. One point I would make out before we move off that is that indicators work from data that's already gone through the analytics engine and validation rules can be used to validate form data in real time new new data values that haven't gone through analytics yet. New in 3.8 and I'm going to try to pick up the pace. We have a null keyword which returns no value so it's great if you're if you have an indicator expression you want an empty cell to appear on a table instead of a zero, or instead of some other value can say, if this is return null. And similarly we have a remove zeros function which is basically equivalent to if the thing you're computing is zero then put in a null instead. But you then you just have to say if this is a complex expression you just have to say a watch instead of having to say it twice. Other functions that have been there since 2.34. Again, read the documentation there is some useful stuff in there, and then program indicators and program rules they got a lot of stuff. So in 2.38 a stage offset function was added just to note if you have a repeating stage, you can say give me the last value give me the second to last value whatever. That's a new expression that's been put in predictors. So predictors take data, either aggregate data or event data, and they transform it and they always write out aggregate data. So that's the result. But it's a general purpose tool. If you can do something with an indicator do if you can't, you can sometimes create predicted values, and then you can use those in analytics in turn. Past period data indicators can now do some of this with period offset predictors can just still do other things that that that indicators can't count the number of organization units where some logical expression. So indicators can do some of this with some expression they still can't do other things where you have multiple data elements that you're you're comparing. If you want to predict. Oh, an arrow is missing if you want to predict from aggregate input data you can run predictors there's an arrow supposed to be here that will generate aggregate predicted data.  If you want to use it in in analytics outputs. I have two minutes left on the clock we'll see what we can do. If you want to again sorry the some of the arrows dropped out of the slide. If you want to have both events and aggregate data. If you want to build analytics tables because the predictors take their input from events data from the event analytics tables, and then they can combine that with the raw aggregate input data that if you want to see it in analytics of course you have to build the analytics data. That's it. Any questions on this come come find me at a coffee break or anytime will be in an expert's lounge I think tomorrow with Scott said, Scott and I will. And if I've, if I've talked to two technical level and you're wondering something higher up don't worry ask me the higher up thing I might be able to answer that too and report problems and request features on Jira. Thank you.


Amiga, what happened to you? This heat is brutal. I thought I was going to pass out yesterday at work. I ran out of water early and my boss wouldn't let me get more. That's dangerous. Call OSHA now. I'm scared that my boss will find out. Firing workers for expressing safety concerns is illegal. Call OSHA. They'll explain the law. In the United States, workers have rights. Gracias, Amiga. I'll call them right away.


What's up everybody, Jason here for jazbeastcasebreaks.com, 2022 Pinini Prison World Cup Soccer Choice Edition just sold out. This is a two box break picker jeans number eight. And again guys, we have number seven and eight up on the website. Number eight sold out before number seven. So still from the same case, but seven's gonna have to wait, but we're down at nine left, which I'm pretty sure we can get that done tonight. And again, we're just grabbing two boxes randomly from the case. Here's the customer names that help sell it out. Last but not most golden getting Australia and also got Japan as well towards the end there. Now we do have an 11 team combo. I think they're about like a $60, $70 combo to have Costa Rica, Cameroon, you know, Tunisia, Senegal, Morocco going to the semifinals final four. How about that? So let's see what we get here guys. Still haven't seen a mango. You have seen landmarks. But let's see if we can get like a mango or something. Now I've noticed guys, whenever we get like a zebra or elephant, we do always get an auto. So as you can see, let's say we have an elephant and we have an auto. So we'll save the auto for last. And we got Luca for Croatia. Save the elephant too. And look at this for America. Ricardo Beppi, USA, Nicholas S to 135. 62 out of 135. So that's not too shabby there. Nice one. And then we have Ellis for Tunisia. And then we got Hazard. So let's go with the elephant first. So that's to Jean Buchanan for Canada, which is golden. Oh, it's actually the same side this time. Ooh, rookie. Lucas Martinez, Cuarta. Look at that elephant rookie. That is pretty sweet. And if that was the other dude, what's his name? Juli Nalvarez. That would have been massive. But still a rookie and elephant can't complain. Buchanan there for Canada, like I said, that's going to golden. And Argentina, of course, is Ronkel. Let's go with the auto now. And Kellen Acosta for America, USA. Go ahead, Nicholas. Nice break for USA so far in this first box. And then Casemiro. All right, first box. Nice. Ooh, looks like we got a landmark, actually. I guess we can do the landmark first. That's our third landmark in this case. And it's for Qatar, Ali. Almoez, Ali. And that's part of the 11-team combo, Robert Ronkel. You can get a Juli Nalvarez, but it's just a new Nero Silver. For there, so it's that hidden, I guess. Bruno Fernandez for Portugal. That's going to mark. That's a blue to 135. And then we have for Argentina, that's a blue to 135. Ota Mendi. That's for Uruguay. All right, let's check this out. Looks like a little green. Little green. And it's Hector Oreda. Look at that. I think he scored the first goal for Mexico in that game, right? In the game against Saudi Arabia. And look at that. Aaron with Mexico. Very nice, man. That's sweet. Nice zebra there, buddy. And Luca Susich for Croatia, which is going to run goal. And there you go, folks, two solid boxes. A landmark in Anato, zebra, elephant. Not too shabby there, Ricardo Pepe. So again, guys, we'd love to run back the next two box break when our similar teams are still remaining there. And again, throughout a whole case, some teams have hit better than others. Like for Mexico, I think that was the first time I've seen a Mexico card. Legit, like I think numbered or anything like that. So again, could be more Mexico hits in there. Could be more hits for teams that didn't hit, that did hit. So again, we're having another two box break on the website. I'd love to run it back. It's down to nine left. Let's get it going. Jasby'scasebreak.com, guys. Thanks.