Okay, Dr. Burton Malkiel is an economist and a writer most famous for his classic finance book a random walk down Wall Street now in its 12th edition and the new 50th year anniversary edition coming out in January. Look for that. Professor Malkiel is the chemical bank chairman's professor of finance of economics at Princeton University, a two-time chairman of the economics department there. He is a leading proponent of the efficient market hypothesis and one of the original thought leaders that led to the creation of index funds. Dr. Malkiel received his undergraduate and master's degree from Harvard University and his PhD from Princeton University. So welcome Dr. Malkiel. Well, I'm absolutely delighted to be here in this world of a lot of bad investment information and self-serving investment information. It's nice to be with a group that has done nothing but give people really useful and really helpful information. I'm also delighted to be with a group that is really established to preserve the legacy of a man who was my lifelong friend Jack Bogle and who I shared a lot of wonderful memories with. And a guy who really was the small investor's best friend. So, as Rick said, it's been 50 years, the 50th anniversary edition, my book is coming out. I went back and just sort of thought of what its reaction was when it was first published. And basically it made two points. One, the markets were reasonably efficient, information got reflected quickly. And with information reflected quickly, the tableau of market prices not always correct, but was sufficiently efficient that the market was very, very hard to beat. And I said at the time that people would be better off just buying and holding a broad-based index fund. Whenever I used to say that, people would say, yeah, but you can't buy the index. And I said in the first edition of the book, well, it's about time you should. Three years later, Jack Bogle started the first index fund. The reaction to my book by professionals was uniformly negative. Of course, investment professionals could beat the market when Jack started the first index fund. As I'm sure you know history, they originally had hoped to do an underwriting of 150, actually 250 million. The underwriters then reduced it to 150 million. And by the time the last purchase was made, they sold $11 million of the index fund. It was considered an abject failure. It was called Bogle Folly. And I remember I used to joke with Jack Bogle that he and I were the only holders of that first index fund. Well, a lot has changed over the 50 years. Now people are complaining that there's too much indexing. That indexing has too much of a share of the market. And it's just quite a difference from the original reaction to the ideas and to the first index fund. So I am, as I say, delighted to be with you and will be delighted to respond to whatever things are on your minds. Well, thank you, and we will have audiences asking some questions a little later. But I happen to have in front of me my book. This is the original edition of a random walk down Wall Street. I get to get it signed by you, but soon. Maybe at the next conference, possibly. Anyway, and you did. You made a quote in this book. Now, 1973. I'll go even before that, but I do want to make this quote because you alluded to it. This is 1973. No index fund existed. And in this book on page 226, you wrote, what we need is a no load minimum management fee mutual fund that simply buys the hundreds of stocks making up the broad stock market averages does no trading from security to security in attempt to catch the winners. Whenever below our average performance on the part of any actual mutual funds is noticed. Fund spokesmen are quick to point out that you can't buy the averages. It's time the public could. That was 1973, which in my view, this was a huge inspiration to Jack Bogle when he was looking into creating the first index fund.  When did you first talk with Jack Bogle about about this idea? Well, I actually was in Washington. I was on the president's council of economic advisors during the time when Jack initiated the first index fund. And then after I left Washington, I then joined the Vanguard board a year later. So I certainly can't tell you that I was right there at the time of the of the first index fund. Although I will say that I was the chairman of the new products committee and a board member of the American Stock Exchange when the first index ETF started. So clearly I was around and talking about this for as long as I can remember. And we'll get to all the ETF question in a minute. But what I also have in front of me is the 12th edition of a random walk down Wall Street. And I assume that the 50th edition will be the 13th edition. Right. Okay. And very good. Okay. So what I want to do now is talk about investing with you. Okay. Well, let me do one more Vanguard thing before we do that. So you are now on the Vanguard board and indexing did not really take off right away. I mean, it took about what 11 or 12 years before the S&P 500 fund actually accumulated about a billion dollars in assets and wasn't a overnight success. Can you talk about those days?  Is it not going to survive? And what was going on with Jack Bogle in these discussions when you were there at the time? Well, I think good as any of you who have known Jack know that he was absolutely not dissuaded. He believed in this with all of his heart and the more people criticized him, the tougher he got.  That indexing was un-American, that this was Bogle's folly. So I would say that, and again, the discussions I certainly had with Jack all the time in those early years, Jack was just even more convinced that indexing was the right way to go. And fortunately, what has happened, and I think this is one of the reasons why indexing is so popular now, is that as evidence accumulated, people began to realize that indexing was not guaranteed mediocrity as it was used to be called, but rather one got above average performance. And in fact, that evidence has been absolutely clear over the entire 50 years, since certainly I wrote random walk and the almost 15 years since Jack started the first index month. And so even though the S&P 500 was not, I mean it was a very, very slow star, Jack continued to innovate and you came out at Vanguard with the first bond index fund, which was not allowed to be called a bond index, if I recall at the time. The difficulty, it's easier to say that you could take an index, you could take the S&P, you could take what used to be the well share index, now the Dow well share index, and you had a certain number of securities, you could cap weight them and put them into a fund. Basically, what's not quite as easy to do in the bond market, because you've got so many illiquid, small bond holdings, and so you had to do this with a kind of algorithm that tried to give you as close as you could what the cap weighted bond market index was, but it wasn't the same kind of thing that you could do with equities. And the SEC would not allow that fund to be called a bond index fund for several years. Right. But Jack continued to innovate, came out with a developed market fund, a REIT fund and then a total international fund. So by 1996, when he left Vanguard, there was a total US stock market index fund, a total international fund, there was a total bond market fund and there was a REIT fund. Basically, you had the four funds that Jack created and then, of course, he stepped down for health reasons. So he kept on innovating even though at first this was not a great idea. How long did you stay at Vanguard on the board of directors? I was on the board of directors for 28 years. Wow. And when did you leave in the early 2000s? I did. We did have a retirement age. And even though I haven't been retired and still as active as I could be, that was the way that things worked. And I think fortunately, that is changing now. And one realizes as the population ages that we've got a lot of people over 70 who still have a lot to add to economic activity and intellectual activity. Well, I want to start talking about some different investments with you. I want to spend the rest of my time that I have before we start taking questions about your view of investments. And I'll start out with the one that you mentioned, exchange-traded funds. So Jack said exchange-traded funds were like giving gasoline and matches to an arsonist. How do you feel about exchange-traded funds? And did you agree with them? No. I would say that that was probably the only area where Jack and I disagreed. Jack and I were absolutely consonant on almost all of our ideas about investing, but each TS were not one of them. And the way the argument went was as follows. You're right. He did think it was an arsonist. I remember Jack would argue with me and he would say in his inimitable way, why would anybody want to buy the market at 10 o'clock in the morning and try to sell it at 2 o'clock in the afternoon? They'll cut their throats doing it. And I would say to Jack, Jack, you don't think that's a good idea and I don't think it's a good idea. But the problem is that there are people who think erroneously that they can do it. There are people who will try to do it. And if they do it in the context of a mutual fund, you could create costs for other people like the holders, the buy and hold people and the mutual fund. And in fact, if you had a bad bear market and all kinds of people sold, you might cause the mutual fund to have to sell securities and it would create tax problems for the holders. The beauty of the ETF is you don't do that within the mutual fund context. You do that on the exchange. And in fact, the ETFs, when they make purchases and sales, this is not considered a taxable event. It's considered part of the business operation to keep the net asset value and the market price consonant so that you don't get into big premiums or discounts. And so there were even certain tax advantages of ETFs. And I said, look, I don't want people to go and buy and sell ETFs, but for the buy and hold investor, this may be an even better way to do it than through a mutual fund. Now, having said that, as ETFs develop and you have these crazy ETFs and they're narrower and narrower, and we've got an ETF that gives you three times the upside or three times the downside of the S&P and they only do that for one day. They don't actually do that in perpetuity. That was all absolutely crazy. And there Jack and I agreed, but for the standard ETF, the standard S&P ETF, total stock market ETF, total international ETF, I thought it made a lot of sense. And I think, frankly, Vanguard was a little slow. I mean, it was not done until after Jack retired. But I think it's been highly successful. And I think it's been very useful for the individual investor. Well, I'm going to go through a little bit of a lightning round with you asking you about different investments. Some of them you did cover in your 12th edition or previous editions of a random walk down Wall Street. But we've had discussions here at the conference of about a lot of different types of investments. And you haven't heard any of these discussions, so you don't know what people have been saying. So we're going to get your opinion about these investments. Are we ready? I'm ready. You're ready. Good. Well, now there may or may not, we'll have to see how this goes. How do you feel about international stock investing? Your positive, negative, what are your views? This is a long term. My views are positive that in general, it has been a way to take advantage of the larger growth of some economies. And it's been a way to diversify even more than in the United States. Now, I fully understand that it's got a very bad name right now. Because international stocks and emerging market stocks have done very, very poorly in part because of the enormous strength of the dollar. But I would say that as of today in particular, where valuations in international markets are well below average and well below US valuations that I think some diversification into international stocks makes sense. Okay, thank you. All right. The next one, real estate. Do you consider REITs real estate investment trusts to be a separate asset class from the rest of the equity market? In some way, yes. And I think particularly in a period that we are in today, where after many years of having inflation so low that we could ignore it. That real estate, which has been a slightly more dependable inflation hedge than equities. Equities are a good inflation hedge. And it's one of the reasons why I don't think one ought to abandon equities at all despite the fact that we've had some tough stock markets recently. But I do think that real estate as a real asset over 100 years, real estate has been a dependable inflation hedge. And I think it definitely deserves a place in a diversified portfolio. The next asset class or at least segment of an asset class are Treasury inflation protected securities tips. What are your feelings about tips? For the individual investor, the I bond, which is the bond that individuals can buy directly from the Treasury, which have a zero base rate, but pay at the rate of inflation, which was over 9% recently. The new rate is somewhat lower than that. But it is the most dependable and absolutely risk free asset and people should be buying as many I bonds as they can afford and that they are allowed to do. The rule now is each individual can buy $10,000 worth. So a couple could buy $20,000 worth. You could also buy an extra $5,000 with an income tax refund. And it is the Treasury is now considering changing the limit from $10,000 to $30,000. This is an absolutely perfect inflation hedge. It's the only absolutely perfect inflation hedge. And I think particularly today where we have high inflation and I worry that we're not just quickly going to go back to 2% inflation. I think we're going to have some inflation for a long period of time. I think the I bonds are a perfect investment for the individual investor. Okay, let's go on to the next topic. And this was happened to do with something you did have in your book. High dividend yielding stocks versus the market. As I think people who follow the market know there was a fair amount of empirical work that suggested that stocks that are quote value stocks sell at low ratios to their book value. Low price earnings multiples have historically had a somewhat higher rate of return than other stocks. It's been suggested that small stocks that is small capitalization companies have had higher rates of return than large capitalization companies, not because the markets necessarily inefficient, but rather because they are somewhat risky. And risk and return are certainly related in markets. We know that from hundreds of years of experience. So what has come to pass then is that people have tried to make a business of the segmenting the market and probably the company that's best known for having done that is dimensional fund advisors. And for a long time, the dimensional fund advisors portfolios did a little better than a simple index fund because while they were passive. I mean they and basically Jean Fama, who was the intellect behind it believes very much in the efficiency of markets, but this by tilting toward what he considered a little bit riskier portfolios, you could get a little higher rate of return, not an inefficiency, just a little extra return from taking extra risk. Well, the market seems to have. This is actually one of the things in the new addition that I've looked at very carefully. And certainly over the last few years, the market seems to have caught up with this and even dimensional fund advisors portfolios have in fact underperformed some of these so called factor fund portfolios where you tilt in favor of one factor or another. So, again, it just frankly makes me think more and more that yeah, there are some new ideas under the sun. But once the market looks at these things, the good old fashioned broad based index fund ought to be the core of everybody's portfolio. Thank you. Let me point out a paper that you and Jack Bogle co authored back in 2006 at the height of the small cap value run in the market that this paper was called Turn on a Paradigm by John C. Bogle and Burton Malkiel June 27 2006. And it basically said Eugene from and Ken French have suggested that higher returns can be generated by index portfolios of stocks with small capitalizations and low price to book that ratios. These and these analysts and he talked about Rob are not and some other people as well. These analysts analysts have all argued that fundamentally weighted indexes represent a new paradigm for index fund investing. Are they correct. We think not. That was 15 years ago. So you're a spot on on that one at least so far. All right, I got a few more. And if people would like to start lining up for questions, please do so. I've got a few more here. We also talked about ESG. I know this is one of your favorite topics. So I'm going to ask you because I read the introduction that you wrote to Larry Swedrow's book and I found it found it fascinating. So could you tell us your views on ESG investing. I have frankly become more and more skeptical about ESG investing. I mean, first of all, it's just extraordinarily difficult to know what are good companies and what aren't. Let's take a company. There's a public utility that burns coal, but that also has been the only public utility that has suggested that they would go to being completely carbon free by a date certain and they're investing tons of money in solar power and wind power. So is it a bad company because it burns coal or is it a good company because they are transitioning. In fact, it's very hard to really know and the people who go and do the ESG ratings are all over the map. The correlations between the ESG raters are something like 0.4, 0.5. And just to put that in perspective, the correlations between Moody's and Standard & Poor's and doing bond ratings are 0.99. So it's just very, very hard to know what's a good company is a natural gas company, a good company because that's the transition fuel that we need when we go to a more carbon free environment, or are they bad because it's carbon. It's just not possible to know there's a lot of so called greenwashing where companies are trying to make themselves look good. And I just really worry a lot about that. Now, what I did in my introduction to that book is I fully understand that investing is emotional as well as simply we're trying to make as much money as possible. And there are people who like to have the idea that, gee, their investments are doing fine. Well, I say this and this was the recommendation I put in my introduction. If that's what you want to do, index the core of your portfolio. If you want to buy a wind power company, if you want to buy a solar panel company, go and do it, but you can do it with much less risk if the core of your portfolio is index. And let me just be clear. Don't think that you're going to make a higher rate of return by being green. While at some point, if green investments get very popular, they could outperform for a while. But after they have become popular, and there is something about them that people like and are willing to pay a higher price for, then my guess is you're going to get lower rates of return, not higher rates of return. So just be very, very careful. Don't turn up your nose at regular index funds and think that you can do good for humanity and make more money too, because if you look at a lot of those so-called green funds, you may be doing neither. I have one more question for you, and then we're going to turn it over to our audience. You co-authored a book on China in 2008 in which you were bullish. Number one, are you still bullish on China, and how do you feel about emerging markets in general? I am less bullish on China than I was. What China did when Deng Xiaoping came into power is he turned over the book on Marxist economics and allowed free enterprise. And by allowing free enterprise, the Chinese economy grew at enormously rapid rates. And I thought that that was going to continue. Well, it has continued to some extent, but I get very troubled by the current leadership, which I think has turned their backs on Deng Xiaoping. And so I am less enthusiastic about China than I was, also in part, because since their one child policy, they're aging so rapidly now that they look very much like economies in the West. Now, having mentioned that, let me just say why I am still optimistic about emerging markets. I think all of our Western economies are suffering from small or negative population growth and a lot of aging. People do these statistics of the dependency ratios, the number of people of working age versus non-working age. I hate these statistics because the argument is, if you're over 70, you might as well be put into the scrap heap because you're not productive. But when you look at these things, you see that the Western world is just aging very rapidly. And in economies like Japan, they are losing population. They are aging rapidly. Japan is losing population. It will lose a third of its population over the next 20 years. And this worries me about the Western economies, whereas the young economies are the Indians, the Vietnam's, and I think they are going to have more growth. They are riskier. They have been terrible investments recently. They are extremely cheap now, and I think they deserve a place in a well-derived portfolio.


Aloha, welcome to another episode of Think Tech Hawaii's Education Movers, Shakers, and Reformers. I'm your host, Carl Campania. Many people believe that education can be the silver bullet or the linchpin that can help solve problems like homelessness, drug addiction, social divisions, and income inequality. And in Hawaii, where our many intertwined cultures cherish our keiki and do all we can to open doors for their successes, we assume that a high priority is placed on having a world-class educational system. But is it? On this show we talk about the programs available to our keiki, the quality of our facilities and infrastructure, addressing deferred maintenance, increasing the number of cool rooms for our keiki and teachers, a more comprehensive curriculum approach, as well as appropriately recognizing and valuing our teachers and administrative staff. And perhaps most importantly, what life and career opportunities are we providing for our keiki to thrive today and into the future? Welcome to the show. Today's guests are Mr. Hayden Atkins, Environmental Education Program Coordinator from KUPU, and Mr. Tyler Suboda, recent Master's graduate from UH and former Clean Transportation Fellow for RISE, a program within KUPU. Today we will learn a bit about KUPU, RISE, and some career pathways. So welcome to the show. And guys, welcome to the show. Thank you. Glad to have you here today. So okay, Hayden, tell us about KUPU. Start with what is KUPU? Yeah, so KUPU is a non-profit conservation organization. We have a number of different youth-led programs that are trying to engage youth in the environment and sustainability. Okay, great, great, great. What got you into KUPU? I actually started as an intern myself, working for the HYCC summer program. HYCC, what's that? That's the Hawaii Youth Conservation Corps. Conservation Corps, thank you. Yeah, so HYCC is a summer program where I got to be a team leader working with four high school students, taking them out into the environment, doing conservation work, camping out, bonding, and that experience was life-changing, and so that's what led me to KUPU. Excellent, excellent. Now see now that, that's what they showed about how we actually make things happen through those experiences. So that's excellent, so okay. So what's your background? What's a bit of your background otherwise? So I'm originally from the Big Island, from a place called Puna. That's where their volcano flows from? Yes, yes, it's very frequently. And then I got my degree in journalism from the University of Oregon, went off to the mainland, got some perspective, came back home, and kind of went a different route, didn't want to go down the journalism route, got into HYCC, realized that I had always had this passion for the environment and this passion to engage with kids, and the two kind of just mesh together with HYCC, and I realized this is what I want to do the rest of my life. Excellent, excellent, excellent. So you sort of had a career path heading in one direction, but then has sort of a life-changing thing connecting you to the environment and kids, and that sort of led you in another direction. Yeah, it's interesting. I think growing up on the Big Island, I grew up on a three-acre native plant farm. And so I've always been into conservation and growing native plants, going on hikes on the Big Island, exploring the Big Island. So it was kind of interesting how I was like, oh, I don't know if I have experience in natural resource and conservation, but I realized that my whole life was kind of leading up to that. And so that's when I kind of decided I'm just going to keep going on that route. That's an important, how old were you when you realized that? College. Out of college.  That's interesting. That's an important message as well for a lot of kids. So great. Excellent, excellent. Tell us a bit about, let's see, so what you do is the environmental program. Is RISE associated with that or connected to that? So RISE is one of four programs, four main programs that we run at KUPU. So I work in another one of those four main programs called E2U, which just basically stands for environmental education to you. And in that program, in the E2U program, what we do is we put interns, usually 21 and older. Right out of college and looking for a career opportunity. And we'll put them into a DOE high school to work with either a natural research teacher and agriculture teacher, environmental science teacher. And basically that intern helps that teacher get the students out into the environmental field, exposes them to field trips, exposes them to guest speakers, exposes them to cool hands on projects. All of it trying to kind of inspire this Malama Aina in conservation. Within the school, yeah, so just kind of attacking the problem from within the school system. Wow. Okay. That sounds great. Now, where do these kids come from? Or how are these kids selected? Our interns. So usually they're graduates of either environmental science or they could be education graduates and they're kind of looking to get their foot in the door. I think that here in Hawaii, you know, we have a lot of conservation jobs but it's hard to kind of get your first foot in the door. And I think KUPU is playing a very vital role in kind of helping kids to get that one foot in the door and then see where that goes from there. That's an interesting question. Everybody experiences that there are barriers, right? Things we want to do and then I've got some education now, I want to go do this, how do I do this? So I guess, I don't know if you have any thoughts, I'd like to hear your thoughts on what it is that makes it difficult for some people to get into the environmental community. They've got some education, they've got some training or they just have an interest. What are the barriers? I think the lack of jobs in that sector, there's not a lot of whole lot of money going into conservation right now. It's picking up here in Hawaii but, you know, nationally I think it's still kind of under the radar in terms of priority. So there's not a whole lot of jobs and I think when people do get a job they tend to keep that job because it's so rare and so you kind of have to wait for someone to retire or move on to kind of get your foot in the door. But there's lots of internship opportunities but what we're trying to do is now push that into, you know, real staff positions and seeing more of those opportunities come around. Excellent, excellent, okay, wow. Well, that's all fascinating, that's all fascinating, okay. So how long have you been part of KUPU? Yeah, this is going on my third year now, with KUPU. Third year working as staff? No, the first year I spent as an intern myself, so in that ETU program I was placed into Kalaheo High School and Castle High School on the windward side and just to kind of give you an idea of what we do at the school is that Castle, you know, because each school is different, right, and each school has its own needs, its own wants and so you kind of go in as an intern, you look at the school and say okay how can I help. So at Castle they have a stream running through the back of their campus, one of the few high schools in the state that actually has a stream on the campus, and they had two pre-existing lo'i kalo that had been there for like 20 years, but there wasn't, like the agriculture class wasn't really engaging in that, it was kind of like this extra thing and so what I tried to do is try to connect the students to the lo'i, get them interested in that kind of thing, you know, realizing how special it is to have that right in their back door. Absolutely, yeah, and so what we did is we actually, we put in like five brand new lo'i at Castle High School and had the kids help actually create them so they got to learn how to make lo'i, and you know there's so much teaching that goes in that, right, there's math, there's science, there's biology, there's everything. And you don't realize that, right? You think that I'm just going to plant something and what? Exactly, and I think that's where the best learning comes from is when you're learning math and science and English and all that stuff without really knowing. That's been a big topic that we've talked about on the show as well is applying what you're learning and what we realize is we go through school, you go through elementary, middle and high school, and you're learning math, you're learning these things but you don't always know why. And if you can find a way to connect the why, I'm doing this math problem, why this is important because I'm not going to do this for the rest of my life. Well, you know what, maybe you will and you don't realize it. Exactly. So it's an important thing I think, so that, no I like that, that's good. Yeah, I think we tend to put subjects into silos and say, okay, when you're in science class, I'm only going to teach you science. Yeah. Right, when you're in math class, we're only going to learn math, but that's not how life is, right? No, no. You don't walk from place to place and, oh, this is a science problem. Oh, this is a math problem. No, everything is interrelated and you've got to, in fact, necessarily so. And with another topic we've talked about on the show is breaking down those silos in all areas because that's how we truly have more advancements in innovation. Exactly. And then also tying, you know, tying those lessons, whatever you're teaching to the place that you're in, right? So not only making it all integrated, but making it place-based, right? That's where the whole place-based education came from, is that, okay, I can do this great hands-on project, but if the kids can't relate to it, then are they really going to continue doing it down the line? So again, that's why the Lo'ikalo is so successful is because a lot of those kids have grown up on Lo'ikalo farms, you know, they're from Kahalu'u, they're from, you know, Wahe'e, and it's like, oh, I know Kahalo, and it brings this pride in them, and then they come out there and they get to build their own Lo'ikalo, and they can relate to that, and that's something they take with them. Yeah, the more we connect, the more we connect.  Again, it's always been what? Okay, great, now what? What's next? So, okay. Well, let's hear from Tyler a little bit. Tyler, you have a different story. We're going to go, we're left, we're going to cover a number of things here, but you have a different story. But let me hear, let's hear your experience with Kupu and the RISE program, which is a different program, but I know there's interrelationships. Let's hear about your experience. What, what initiative, what got you into that program? What got me into that program? I applied. You applied? Well, why were you interested in the program?  Okay, the RISE program. So, it's a long story. Short story, short version of it is essentially that, I mean, I'm from Big Island as well. Yeah, quite close, but close enough.  I mean, fishing, diving at the beach, all of that. That is what I still do as much as I can on this island. Yeah. But I mean, so that sort of, that's the sustainability aspect. At the time, which was not even a year ago. I was actually still in my master's at the University of Hawaii studying urban regional planning, specifically focused on transportation. And then we get this job notification. Oh, clean transportation fellow with RISE. Oh, hey, I will apply. So that kind of comes together. So you have an interest in connecting with nature.  You're getting your master's in, well, transportation, although it's rural and urban planning, but with a transportation focus. And then this, so this opportunity comes up that kind of brings things together. That's perfect. So excellent, excellent. So again, what was the position? Clean transportation fellow. Clean transportation fellow. Okay, so now this is all like, I see all of this as like a career path opportunity. And that's really, I guess the point of this show is how are we transitioning career path opportunities? How are we creating career path opportunities for our kids, especially when there aren't necessarily jobs? How are we creating those jobs? Or how are we helping to provide a workforce for a future job that's on the way? And so that's, those are some of the challenges that we have. So, okay, so Tyler, before we go to break real quickly. I know, so what high school did you go to? Kauai Preparatory Academy. Kauai Prep, okay.   I did my bachelor's in political science at Seattle University. At Seattle University, okay. And what was it that drove you to Seattle? Different change. I mean, you grow up on a rock, you want to see what life is like. But under the clouds. What other rocks look like. What bigger rocks look like. Okay, okay. Bigger, flatter, rainier, much rainier. So for you it was less of a, you know, what I want to go do this career this way. And this is the best place to do this and more of that with an opportunity to see somewhere new. Life experience. Life experience with it. Excellent, excellent. And then were you always planning on coming back to Hawaii? Didn't know.  That's super exciting. Who knows if I'll come back.  And then you're like, oh, maybe, maybe the rain's not for me. Maybe I should go back home and it's nice weather and nice beaches. Sure. So then you came back home and then went from there. So okay, we're going to take a quick break and we're going to come back. We're going to go a bit more into that and we're going to talk more about how this stuff comes together a bit. So, all right. Thank you for joining us again. This is Think Tech Hawaii's Education Movers, Shakers and Reformers. I'm your host, Carl Component. Today we have Hayden Athens from Kupu and we have Mr. Tyler Saboda. Currently with the University of Hawaii Applied Research Lab and former Kupu fellow. So, thank you. See you in a minute. Aloha. How you doing? Welcome to Ibachi Talk. I'm here at Gordo the Tech Star on Think Tech Hawaii. I'm here with my good old buddy, Andrew the security guy. Hey, everybody. How you doing? Aloha. Thank you for watching. Good to have Andrew here in the house. Please join us every Friday from one to one thirty and follow us up on YouTube. And remember, as we say at the end of every show, how you doing? You're watching Think Tech Hawaii offering lifelong learning from passionate hosts and fascinating guests ready to explore and explain Hawaii's place in the 21st century. Great content for Hawaii from Think Tech. Hi, I'm Donna Blanchard. I'm the host of Center Stage, which is on Wednesdays at two o'clock here on Think Tech. On Center Stage, I talk with artists about not only what they do and how they do it, but the meat of the conversation for me is why they do it, why we go through this. A lot of us are not making our livings doing this. And a lot of us would do this with our last dying breath if we had that choice. And that's what I love to talk to people about. I hope you enjoy watching it. And I hope you get inspired because there's an artist inside you too. Join us on Center Stage at two o'clock on Wednesdays. Bye. Aloha, welcome back to Think Tech Hawaii's education movers, shakers, and reformers. I'm your host, Carl Campania. Once again, we have today with us Mr. Hayden Adkinson from Kupu and Mr. Tyler Sabota, currently with the University of Hawaii Applied Research Lab. Again, welcome guys, thanks for the show. Okay, we'll go back a little bit to what we were talking about a second ago. Tyler, your career path. So you went to Hawaii Prep, you went to Seattle to go to get your bachelor's degree in political science. Right. After that, you kind of realized that the weather wasn't really for you at the very least. So you came back to Hawaii. And then you went to UH to get your current degree that you just finished about two months ago, right? Yes, very interesting. Which was rural and urban planning. Urban and rural planning. Urban and rural planning. Okay. Was it part of this connection to Hawaii, into the land, into the water? Or what was it that got you into that program? Into that program. Well, actually, I mean, I studied political science. So the original intention was, oh, Tyler, you're good at English. You're good at history. You write. You talk. You talk a lot.  So political science. I mean, I was personally interested in political science. So that kind of fit nicely into it. It's like, yeah, I can study that and we'll decide later. But we'll say I agree with you. And then I'll go study political science. Okay.  Who are you? I mean, just those sorts of basic questions. Like what type of people are lawyers? And a lot of them are just much too busy to give me like real time of day, like they'll show face and be in the same space as me, but not quite there. And then I actually was fortunate enough to meet a professor, Doc Wong, Marie Rose Wong at Seattle University. And she was an urban planning professor. And I was just curious. I was like, oh, what is urban planning? And I walked out of her office about two and a half hours later. Oh, wow. And I mean, she's just so passionate about what she does. And I find that to be true about almost every single planner I've ever had conversations with. You ask them what they do. They'll sit you down. Okay, this is what I'm doing. This is my plan. Here's how we do it. They'll just tell you every single detail about anything planning related. So it's inspiring. It's totally inspiring. It's passion for what they do. And I mean, urban planning is all about forward thinking. Yes. It's about saying, okay, this is where we are, but you know what? We can do more. We want to do more. We want to develop some more. So now that is, so that informed your thought process that got you into the program here at UH. Correct. I chose UH because the biggest thing with the masters is, oh, you're starting to build actual connections that will then lead to work. Yes. Where do you want to work? I kind of want to go back home. There you go. And there we go. So okay, now, so this is connecting the whole thing. So we've got, you're going to elementary school, you're going to middle school, you're going to high school. After high school, you go to, hopefully, you're going to college. But for what? Most kids, I have a friend. His name is Kurt. He may have watched the show, I don't know. His name is Kurt. He knew in sixth grade, he wanted to be an architect. And he is an architect to this day. And he's good. And I'm proud of that for him, excited for him. I didn't understand how he could know. And that his follow through was impeccable. So that's great. That's wonderful. I wasn't that kid. I had to go through different variations and permutations of life, in order to figure out where I wanted to be and what I wanted to do and how. So from what I'm hearing from you guys, that's more of a common story. We all have, you know, we sort of wind our way through what we're going to do and how we're going to do it. So from your perspectives, both of you, I want to hear from both of you on this. From your perspectives, when, as we're saying, really in college, as you're about to finish your bachelor's degree, you're starting to really think about what you want to do and how you want to do it in a different way. When could this, or should this, these ideas have started sooner? Could you imagine a time like, you know, hey, someone brought some of these ideas to you in high school or in middle school? What would that have meant to you at the time? Would that have in any way helped you? I don't know. I don't know if you guys have some thoughts on that. Yeah. No, I think it's got to happen earlier. It's got to happen way earlier. And I think we need to expose our students to professionals who are in these pathways and bring them into the school or bring the kids out to them. If you think about a traditional educational system, there wasn't these four walls, there wasn't this school. It was, you go learn from uncle, then you go learn from auntie, then you go learn from uncle, and you learn all these skills. And you're going to catch an interest in one of them when you're exposed to multiple different career opportunities. And I think we don't necessarily give our kids that as much in the education world today with more standardized tests, past this test, get good grades, go off to college. But then it's like, we both can say like, whoa, what does college do nowadays? It's like, you may not even find yourself in college. So I think it's exposing the students at a younger age to career opportunities, giving them idols and role models within their own community to look up to and say, oh, that's something that I would be down to do. And I think it's also showing, you know, I think both of us kind of found a purpose in our jobs. And so I think it's important to show our youth that purpose should kind of drive your career choice rather than money. And I think we get caught up in this, in this Western world of thinking that money is the most important thing. And we chase these dreams that you're not really happy with. It doesn't fulfill you. And so you end up unhappy later in life. I'm like, why didn't I choose this career? Yeah, so purpose driven. You need a balance there as well. And I have a different thought process how I go through that with my kids. But I agree with you. I agree with you. It's just, there's more to it. I think, but I'll go into that in a second. I want to hear from Tyler. Your thoughts on how some of these ideas and some of these, if what you're currently passionate about was introduced to you as a potential career path, sooner, would that have informed any of your decisions or would that have helped you maybe get involved sooner in some of what you have been doing lately? I think I'm fortunate where even if I knew I wanted to do this earlier on, I kind of hit that perfect trajectory of how to get there. Just happenstance. Just happenstance. It wasn't a plan. It was not quite a plan. The plan is to never have a plan. I'm a planner. Terrible. Terrible. But I mean, so like, I mean, when I really trace back where my interest in transportation, because that's weird. Like, that's really weird. I'm not going to lie. Like, I really find transit and get moving people to be a fascinating problem in the world. But that came about when I was really young, actually, one of my first trips to Portland for ODP Soccer Olympic Development Program. And we get on the bus and we get sent to our camp and the bus goes over this bridge. It's got like six lanes across. There's an actual bottom floor beneath it with six more lanes going the opposite direction. Wow. And coming from Big Island where there's one road, one road, two lanes, you drive one, you drive the other way. That's it. I mean, that in and of itself was very like, just, I was awestruck. I was like, what is this? How does this even work? How do cars flow in here? And you're right around the river. You're taking these sharp bang-and-bangs. How old are you at that time? I think I was like 10 or 12. 10 or 12, yeah, around there, somewhere around there. Pretty young. So you had this experience where you were like, okay, wow, what is this stuff? How does this happen? But then that kind of- Basically, it's civil engineering to make it actually happen. But it's the urban and rural planning that really decides how and when and where to make this happen. Yeah. And so I had no idea that was actually a career path. Like, so I kind of just put that on the back burner. Yeah. And just went on to potentially be an Olympic soccer player. That's just, that's just stuff. Could have. It's just a thing. That's all right. That's all right. Anybody want to talk? Yeah. No, no, that's excellent. And that actually plays into the whole thing. It's like, well, maybe you wanted to be a professional soccer player. Maybe you could have different things and all that. But that's all good. Okay, so you've both are currently involved in careers that five years ago you couldn't have imagined. But you both went through your education sort of plotting through, trudging your way through to a certain extent. Oh, I've got to do this. I've got to do this. Not quite sure really what the end goal was going to be. Is it with that? Yeah. Yeah, definitely.  And whether you realize there was a career or not opportunity, most of the time, we don't realize there's a career opportunity. So perhaps if someone, if you would have had the opportunity to be brought to the State Department of Transportation and say, oh, okay, Director Fuchigami, can you please tell young Tyler some career opportunities throughout Department of Transportation, you would have learned at that point, oh, wow, I can actually, I could do that. And what sort of a degree do I need for that? And what's the career path? How do I really get from where I am today to becoming Director of the Hawaii Department of Transportation? How does that happen? Because that honestly is an option for you later in life. Maybe. Maybe. You know, there's a lot of things, but as life goes, you'll see. So, okay, in the last couple of minutes, let me ask this, and I want to hear from both of you. What you're doing at the moment is something that you enjoy doing, you are passionate about.  Yeah. And what do you see for yourself as far as that development? Yeah, for me, this job at KUPU has been the perfect blend of educational opportunities and environmental opportunities. And so, I think wherever I go in life, I'm going to be doing one or the other, or a combination of the two. I just think that here in Hawaii, we are at such a fragile point when it comes to environmental issues. And really our only weapon is education to help fix that.  Either educating kids about the environment or working on conservation. Exactly. Some form of... And getting kids out there to see. Either way, getting kids to see. I really appreciate that part. Getting kids engaged because that's what is informing them. So, okay, excellent, excellent. Appreciate that. And thank you for that and continuing to do that. And always let us know what you need, what is needed to help make that happen. That's an important piece. So yes, there's not enough conservation here. It's not as big of a focus, but we need to balance it sometimes with other things that we need. So how do we do that? I think that's a good topic of conversation for an urban and rural planner. There's a problem for you. So, okay, how about you? What Tyler, do you think as far as five, 10 years from now, what is it, what you're doing now? And do you have any ideas? It's hard to imagine, but do you have any ideas? It's very hard to imagine. It is hard to imagine. Sorry, now I do a lot of work with biofuels, as you know.  But when it comes to biofuels, and we'll do it quickly, when it comes to biofuels, you spend like six months working on a thing and you become a subject matter expert in it, because it's such a new industry, such a new world as far as transportation fuels are concerned. Oh, yes. And how to do that. So, yeah, certainly. It's especially in this transportation sphere in Hawaii, it's very relevant. I mean, we can move things closer together. We can build rails, but to get people to the islands themselves, we have to fly or by boat, and the boat to those things costs way too much in terms of fossil fuels. So there's a huge opportunity, regardless of land transportation. And so will I still be in this sphere? The broader sphere of clean transportation, yes, will it be specifically biofuels? I have no idea. I really enjoy this currently. So I'm tempted to say yes. The planning piece for clean transportation is a piece that you envision being a part of, which is something that occurred to you when you were 10. I don't know if it was clean. It's not clean, but this is really a cool world. Yeah, as you have been more informed. So, okay, let me say thank you both very much. I truly appreciate that. I think this is a, for me, it was a good conversation. I hope everyone can also wing from this a little bit. I think there's some important stuff to understand and make sure that we can think later where it is. So I truly appreciate the opportunity. I would always love to learn more about KUHU and various things there. So please welcome to come back. Thanks for having me. So thank you so much for joining us. This was Fink Tech Hawaii's education movers, shakers, and performers. I'm your host, Carl Campania. Today we have Mr. Hayden Adkinson and Mr. Tyler Sabota. Thank you again. Let me thank the crew and the staff of Fink Tech Hawaii. And we will see you next week. Bye-bye.


It's a presentation of TFNN. The Tom O'Brien Show is produced every business day. Tom takes your phone calls toll-free at 1-877-927-6648. Internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER>. Let's go to Mike in Southern California. Hey, Mike, what's going on? Hey, Tom, nice to talk to you again. And I have to start out and first tell you, I love this trading room. This thing is great. This app works great. And getting all the information, you're like instantly there, no delay, nothing. I know. Listen, I appreciate you growling proud with us. Your channel is in my pocket all day long. It's wonderful. Thank you, man. Thank you. Now, Tom O'Brien. Reww! Welcome, folks. This is Tom O'Brien of TFNN. We have five days a week. We go seven hours a day. We go 24 hours a day on the internet at TFNN.com. Always remember, folks, whatever you think about, you bring about whatever you focus on grows. Hope everyone had a great weekend, safe weekend. Let's make it a great week, folks. Don't make assumptions. Learn to ask questions. It is always better to ask questions than to make assumptions. Have the courage to ask questions and do as clear as you can be. Once you hear the answer to the question, you won't have to make the assumption because you'll know the truth. Mm, I get wise! Let's take a look at it out here. We have the Dow Industrial's trading up 7.35. Nasdaq up 3.10. S&Ps up 105. Gold. Gold contract down to $7.40. Traded at 18.33 an ounce. With Silver up 9 cents, $21.77 an ounce. Platinum up 8.80 at 9.39 an ounce. Light sweet crude. Up a buck, $110.65. Notes and bonds. Ten-year note. Up 10.6, trading 1.15, 27. The third year up a full point plus five ticks at a 1.33.16 and King dollar. King dollar's down 273 ticks. Traded at 104, 4.27. Euros at 105. The ends at 1.36.57. The British pound is trading at 1.22 to 1.00 US dollar. iPhone number's<PHONE_NUMBER>. Give us a call, folks. Well, now it's going on in your world. In the world of the S&Ps, let's take a look at them. What do you have? Well, bottom line is you got a nice bounce out here. No doubt about that. You got the S&Ps right now trading up 2.7%. The Nasdaq 2.9. And the Dow Industrial's 2.4. That being said, guess what, folks? It is building costs for more lower prices. Why bottom line? You get this bounce. S&P, yeah, you bounce over 52 million. You're coming into 176 million. You're coming into 125 million. You can expect the bounce out of it. I expect when you can see the contraction of all, and we already got one ABC structure inside a larger ABC structure. Bottom line, you got another bounce going. That's in your S&P. We take a look at the NDX 100. Same type of setup inside the NDX. What we have with the NDX, the three Qs out here, they are up eight bucks right now. You're trading at 282. You know, last Thursday, we hit lows at 81 million. We did 82 million on Friday. You're doing 38 million now. You're coming into 94 million. Gold. Gold contract is having a hard time holding price. And this is telling me that, you know, this dollar has been like just strong like bull. And this pullback in the dollar looks to me like that's all it might be. Because this contract can't get out of its way, man. Right now, you're back $6.70. You do have light volume, you know. So we've been trading sideways for quite a bit. Now, if I go to the XAU and the HUI though, this is what is pretty dangerous in this market right now, meaning in the metal market. And the XAU and the HUI, what we did is this. We took out the lows, you know, last Thursday and rejected them. But the bottom line is that that rejection looks to me like it's gonna go back after it again. The XAU got down to 118, 123. The low it took out was 119. It didn't take out the low that was established out here at 1901 that was established in January. Okay, we got to, oh no, look at this, 1, 1839. We did take it out. That's, see, chat's interesting, man, look at that. Yeah, we did take it out. So we're going back down there, man. This thing wants to go back and test. The Gold Bugs Index, same type of setup inside the Gold Bugs Index. And we have there the Gold Bugs Index bottom line. We got down to, the low in January is 236, 337. We got the 234, 356. That thing wants to get down there again. So if that's the case, this good old dollar, very well, this could have been just basically a pullback. It came down hard last Tuesday. Today, you couldn't get under the low that was established on Thursday. The high that it has to get over is this 105, 005, 104, 413. The way that thing set up, man, that could be an ABC structure up. It failed on price last week, even on the weekly. But the way the rest of these metals are lining up, particularly folks, on a day that, yeah, the Golden Seal was up today, but they're not up with gusto, man. So that's telling me that we're not done yet on the way down, yeah, or at least test them. Some of the high volume equities out here today. We got advanced backers up $2.70. We got invidiers up eight bucks. Tesla's got a real move. That's up, and actually Tesla is moving with volume today. That's up 76 bucks, that's up over 10%. You got mobbells trading up 64 cents. That's got a little juice underneath it. Exxon's up $6. Now, that looks like a good move, but that came down hard and fast. And the real question is, let's get over and take a look at this oil contract and let's see, taking a look at it oil. You know, oil right now with this contract, we're on the July contract. It's trading $110.65, and the real question is, is that, okay, so we came down hard. Now, what's this? That, what we did last Friday, last Thursday, rather, folks, yeah, 17th, that right there, you know, is very well, could be a loss in golfing, meaning that you have four or five days down, you open tie, you close lower. This thing still looks like it wants higher price. That's the real bottom line. Let me pull this up here one second. So, the volume that we came down on, yeah, they're rolling contracts too, one second. CO, CO, yeah, that's still giving me that one. Yeah, if we go to the Exxon mobile, you're gonna see what I'm talking about that.  Well, guess what, Exxon's down off of 105. On Friday, on Thursday it hit 85. On Friday, now Friday hit 85.  You're trading at 92.30. Yeah, well, actually, anything over 92.05 is saying that, yeah, I can go back to the high. Today the volume is not bad on it. Chevron, let's go look at Chevron CVX. Chevron out here, yeah, Chevron. This is telling me we're gonna go into consolidation, yeah. Chevron's got a high volume low. It broke the swing point, so Chevron wants to go back to it's 145.79. Chevron's going up with lighter volume today. That's telling me that those oil stocks, you know, bottom line just might get dragged down with the broad market, the next leg down. Stay right there, folks, to come right back. We have the Dow Industries right now trading up 745. 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Dow Industrial is right now trading up 728. Nasdaq is up 313, S&P's up 101. Let's go over to our mammoth to Basil Chapman as we do each and every Tuesday at 20 past the hour. And don't forget, folks, Basil has an outstanding show here every trading day, 10 to 11 Eastern standard time. Also has a great newsletter, the opening call. Now it's very easy to get this newsletter, folks. You come over to our website at TFNN. You're gonna see a red of the featured content, the opening call, you just hit that button. You hit subscribe, you can get the opening call for one month for $149. You get it for six months for 695, which is a savings of $199 at 22%. And you can get it for one year for 1195, which is a savings of $593 or 33%. Now they all come with a 30-day money-back guarantee, folks. Okay, so bottom line, you wanna check it out? Just hit, well, a month, six months a year. Check it out. Basil also has about approximately 10 to 12 archives on there that show you exactly how to ride that wave each and every day. Basil Chapman, what's going on? Hi, Tom, hope you had a good long weekend. I did, I hope you had a great father's day. It was fun. The life was very great. It was, I know, I love it, I love it. So, these three-day weekends, you can get used to them, you know? Oh, man, I think we should have three-day weekends all the time, man. That's where it's at. You get just as much work done, man. Just depends on how much work. What's interesting is that the futures were open and Sunday night, the futures ran up, they ran down and they ran up very strongly, and we followed through on Monday. So even though it wasn't a market day, I thought there was a really important session and on Sunday, I waited Saturday because I did a bunch of work I needed to go through and on Sunday I did my market overview video for my subscribers to my opening call. And I said, I like a lot of what's going on here, even if it's a short term, the fact is that some kind of relief rally should come early next week. And the reason I had looked at that was if you see this little tiny doji candle here, this is the daily chart on the left of the Dow and the middle is the weekly and the right is monthly.  I don't usually talk about the MACD and stochastic are used them all the time as being overboard or oversold because the stochastic holding strongly above 95% is fantastic. It's usually great. And if it's underneath 10%, which is the exact opposite of being over 90%, this is on the way down 10%, that's usually a negative. But I do use the unbalanced volume that's very overboard. And you can see right here on the, what was that? That was the 27th of May, the unbalanced volume made a high and then turned down quite sharply. And that's almost where we got that turn in the Dow at 33,272. So a couple of things I liked very much. I liked the fact that I went through all, whoops, I went through all the Dow stocks that he stocks. And while I didn't get any real buy signals, many of them were extremely oversold and ready for at least to bounce. That was number one. Number two, the fact that I had this little small doji candle, which could either be a halfway marker. You can see this long one here was like a halfway marker to the downside. It could also be a reversal candle. So I liked that. I liked the fact that the unbalanced volume, which when it gets oversold or overbought, that's the one thing that can turn with the price of whatever we're following. So we went along on Friday and I needed the confirmation that we'd have a, the futures would be up over the weekend and thank goodness they were. So this is a very good follow through, but until the Dow, you can see this pink line here is a nine period moving average and way above it, and that's a 30,877. Way above it at 31,249 is the 14 period moving average. So to get these to cross so that the pink turns green because it's above the 14 will take, oh, at least 31,531,600. So I like to go step by step. So we've got the first initial turnaround. That's important, but it's still the day's young. We've got 35 minutes to go. Anything can happen, but so far, this is good because I'd say to subscribers today that if after 1.30 or 2 o'clock the Dow is holding strongly to the upside and the VIX is pulling back and the VIX is now at 2,964. That's the volatility index. That will at least allow the Dow to close strongly because if there was a failure, we would have had that by about 2 o'clock. So so far, this is good action. So that's just one step. The other is that in looking at a number of the, and as I say, we went along on Friday already so we're along via the diamonds, but also looking at the different Dow stocks, we also took a position in IBM as a first, I can't even remember when last I ever looked at IBM as a long position. But one of the reasons is, look how it held, look how the market, look, the IBM was at 144, just where it was on the 6th of June. Then the market took a huge dive and look, IBM only went down to 1.32. So my reasoning is that we've seen Microsoft, Adobe, and you can just go through the list of stocks from the year 2000 that just got hammered, had almost 90% or sometimes even more of a decline and then morphed, they reinvigorated their company and thought through the process of what they need to do. And most of them went on to new all-time highs. So my thinking is that IBM in the AI and information technology and the cloud, there's a chance that they have finally got something right. So we took a long position and it's at this particular point there's a lot of evidence on the upside that we will need to confirm that it's going to go much higher. The fact that it held well on the downside, we've seen stocks that have held well and when the market broke to the upside, they didn't do very much. In this case, it was really important to see what it did today and it's up $3.12 at 1.3814. So I'd go one step at a time, but I'm kind of putting it in the Dow category as kind of for me, it's a kind of a visual icon because if IBM is able by this coming Friday or early next week to actually trade in the 143, 144 area, I think that'll be a really good sign that is you can't just look at the sector, you have to look at the sector leadership and it would be surprising to everyone if IBM suddenly became a leader in the tech. So I like the action and so far it's acting well and we're also, we're in another position that we just added that is in the, it's kind of the former Nasdaq winners that really got beaten down. So we have an ETF that kind of represents that and so far today, it's up about 4.5%. So we've been selective. When we get to, how do you get to a letter A? So you identify the low bar. Actually, let me just show you. Right, we don't know just the low or not. That's why I'm asking. Oh, that's a very good point. So my thesis always is we use different techniques on the way down, I usually use the technical indicators. I use the mag-D, I use the stochastic, I use the unbalanced volume. So does it have to get to the 14 day or the nine day to get to an A? Or is it just? No, it doesn't have to. There are other techniques that I use, but most importantly, on the way up, I always use the alphabet, A, B, C, D, E, F, G, and D is where other things go. That's a very good question. So on the way down, I use the, look, this is a trough B in the IBM. I use that, but it isn't as important because on the way up, I'm always using the letters. And yeah, it simply shows there's a starting position and then you go alphabetically, A, B, C, D, alphabetically. So that's basically it. So we're looking at this as, I think this, based on the oversold action that I'm looking at, I think this can last a little longer than the usual, just pop up and drop. So I'm hoping for that because the technicals indicate we are very oversold. And folks, it's very easy to get Bowser's newsletter, come over to our website at TFNN, you'll see it right under the featured content, to hit that button, and you are off the races. Bowser, have a great one, safe one, and we look forward to the show tomorrow. Thank you very much. Thank you. Sarah, there's folks coming right back. Now is the time to subscribe to my Gold Report. The Gold Report is a comprehensive look at the metal sector, as well as the markets that move gold, which is the currency and bond markets. New subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee, so you have nothing to lose. 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Using this first-of-its-kind program, The Art of Timing the Trade Charts allows you to scan thousands of stocks for Fibonacci formation setups, including garteries, ABCs, butterflies, and much more. The Art of Timing the Trade Charts is designed to help you when scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days, weeks, or even months searching to find. And right now, we're offering licenses available at only $79 a month. We are so confident that you're gonna love this new charting software that will even give you a 30-day unconditional money-back guarantee. Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software. Get your copy of The Art of Timing the Trade Charts today by visiting TFNN.com. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back, folks. Dow. Dow investors right now up $708. You get the NASDAQ of $303. S&P is up $103. Let's go over to the DAX in Germany for a second, because we have the questions about the aspect of, you think this is a one-day wonder. And if you look at the DAX, it very well could be because what you have out here today, folks, the DAX got the $13,443 and then gave up a bottom line 160 points in a heartbeat. Looks like the DAX is going to go after the swing low again and go after the last swing low that I was talking about last week. Okay, so let me pull a few more of these up and here up and see what we're looking at, because we certainly had a nice bounce. That being said, though, that bounce is on particularly really light volume. So we pull up the FTSE. The FTSE right now, FTSE in London. Come on, baby. Okay, that was up 30 bucks. That didn't hold price either. Interesting. Yeah, hey, we'll see where this baby shakes out. Most times, you know, if you get a little bounce going, there's no reason that it can't bounce for a few days. That being said, though, when you look at those European stocks, don't be surprised if you open down again. It's going to go right after it. Now, if we ever do that, that's just telling you that you have one of the weakest markets that we've seen in quite some time, because the bottom line is that the last time, you know, we came down hard last week, it tried to bounce for one day and gave it up again. So this is a one-day wonder and gives it up again, man. The market's telling us quite a bit, man. That's the bottom line. You know, we'll see where it's going to shake up, but that's the way that it is shaking out at this point. Yes, the contraction and volume is huge. When you have a contraction of volume on the way up, folks, after a downtrend and when you're in a downtrend, the bottom line, you know, most times you can bounce a little bit further than this, is no doubt. And if you're going to go back down, you have a contraction of volume on the way up. What has happened in this market, this market hasn't even been able to get a bounce. Let's go to our man, Frank and Gloucester. Frank, what's going on, man? Hey, how am I always beautiful up here, Tom? I bet it is. 25 degrees breezy. Nice. You have a good father's day and grandfather's day. Oh, very, very nice. Thank you. Yeah, all kinds of great kids. Yeah, good time. That's so much fun. Yeah, I know it. Teak, huh? Let's take a look at this. Yeah, I said gold stock. I've been looking at it for a while. It seems to have pretty good fundamentals. Yeah, let's take a look. So this company has a lot of metal folks. We're talking about right from Zinc, Kappa, Mobileen, Gold, Coal. They do business in the United States, Canada, Peru, and Chile. The lowest, $19, the highest, 45. The PE is six. They pay a 1% dividend. Okay, so, okay, so I came down. Okay, so we did 6.5, 7.2. Yeah, I like this. So this is what happens here, folks, okay? You get a consolidation down at the lows. I do like how this is set up, Frank, and the reason being is that the gold and silvers didn't do this. It came down, but what they did is that they came down, man, with almost too much volume into these lows, the same lows, man. Yeah. So this has a little bit more. I'd almost let it test it again, because there's something, to me, there's something that's not right just yet in this metals market, man. Right. And my take on this, folks, is that we should have took off last week. And, you know, what happens is that this dollar, man, you know, this dollar just looks like it does not, does not want to go down. You know, it gave it up, we had a failure. That being said, you can see it today, it rejected 103, 900, 104, 391. And what I'm doing, Frank, what you're hearing off me also is this. We're in a double ABC structure down in the marketplace, right? Meaning, folks on the S&P, the NASDAQ, the small caps. Yes, we have a bounce going today. It's a contraction of volume. These stocks are moving with the broad market, man. And they had, like, today, it would seem to me that, you know, the metal stocks in general should be up a lot more than they are, man. This is, like, you know, it's just not enough there.  You know, I don't like it when, you know, we all have views all the time. And sometimes they're stronger, or, you know, views than other times. My take last week shouldn't have that, you know, I mean, we know the markets the market. I'm not saying it shouldn't have went down. I'm just saying that those metal stocks were way too weak. With gold still really holding.  So. Yes, yeah, it sure looks that way. Do you think that the oil is driving the dollar? Oil price? No, I think what's happening is that inflation is so bad and no one's tackling it. And we probably are tackling it a little bit more than anyone else so that the dollar's strong. Because my take here, what's going on is that no one's moving fast enough to crush inflation, man. I think these rates are gonna go up, I think mortgage rates are gonna go up over 10%. And because, you know, I went through this before, you went through it too, Frank, man. I mean, the bottom line folks, this was a five year deal. The last time this happened and you needed a vote that could mean, I mean, he just flipped everyone out and I remember it so well because I was a skate guy at the time, but I just remember it because I remember everything getting so expensive. And it doesn't end like, you know what's blows my mind, Frank, these, all these analysts even talk like it ends in like three or four quarters. I mean, that's impossible. It's all political talk, there's no reality. Right, well, I'm talking about even financial analysts. There's, you know, like, oh yeah, if we do this, it's gonna, it's like, hold it, man. When inflation gets out of the bag, it takes, you know, years for it to come back. Well, talk about slowing down the economy to tackle inflation. That doesn't make any sense to me. No, but that's the only way that inflation stops. Unfortunately, that's what we're talking. They're gonna put the economy in a recession because that's the only way it stops, man. Give me the range, give me the range from the US oil industry. I'll have inflation stop really fast. Yeah, I, my take is that what has happened is that inflation is everywhere, including in payrolls and the perception, once it got to payrolls and the perceptions there, inflation is all about perception. But this is where the wild card is, folks. When this was happening before, a Volca put it all the way up there to 14 to 15%, and then we started off at that level. This time, we started at like 1.5% and they're gonna gem the rate all the way up there. So, you know, it's like, we're all gonna have less money, man. Oh yeah, you know, this is gonna be bad because the economy that we've built is built on really low interest rates. It is. So now, if they start coming up to be really high, it's gonna hit businesses like crazy. No, it is, it is.  Cookin', brother. Hang in there. Thanks, man. Stay right there, folks, come right back. Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area, including the surrounding St. Petersburg, Tampa, and Clearwater markets? Tiger Real Estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay Area. Whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value, or you're in the market for a second home or investment property, Tiger Realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the Tampa Bay Area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels. From the price you should be paying per square foot in certain up and coming areas to the type of cash flow investment properties are capable of creating, Tiger Real Estate can help you make the best decision when it comes to all areas of the market. 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The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor, Four Side Fund Services, LLC. This program is brought to you by VistaGold. Traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. I'm O'Brien! Welcome back, folks, Dao. Dao Industries right now at 680, you got the NASDAQ up 290, SAPs are up 98. Let's talk a little bit about inflation here. So the last inflationary spiral we had, folks, okay? You had Lyndon Johnson. Bottom line, it was the, you know, bringing in the great American social pushing money into the system. And I can tell you, flat out, you know, I'm elated that he did it because I happen to be one of those folks growing up in South Boston that benefited from it because what had happened in that whole area is that, you know, less, well, poor areas start getting more money, there were more programs, there were plenty of starting jobs, okay? There's no doubt about that. And then, simultaneously, the Vietnam War was there. So the acceleration of cash in the system was exponential. That brought inflation in. That area there took seven or eight years to hit. My take on this one here, this goes all the way back to Alan Greenspan. We have been putting money, you know, we know that by the dip, right? By the dip has worked, you know, since up and in the market. I mean, realistically, right? I mean, the bottom line, I remember when I first looked at the market, the Dow was 808. I remember it so well, okay? The Dow's running out of 30,000. Bottom line, why is it worked? It has worked because, you know, since Greenspan, every single time there's any little, you know, hiccup, the bottom line is the Fed would throw more money from Greenspan to Bernanke to Powell, right? And the kicker, though, was okay, you put money in, you put money in. Then the kicker was, we had COVID. We hit COVID, then every country, including ours, they sent out so much money, folks, it was incredible. It was, you know, the bottom line is that, you know, and I'm talking about right from SBA loans, from the payroll things, they got it, they did.  But that being said, the bottom line is that there is, it was way too much money put in the system. Now, the way that inflation goes, right? Supposedly the, well, not supposed, the definition of inflation is that here, on our left-hand side, our left-hand here has the amount of money that's put in the system. Our right-hand, okay, bottom line is the amount of assets that are in the country. But let's make this a small country, and just say this is United States right now, just so you can get an aspect of what happens with inflation. Okay, so we have $100 worth of assets. Let's just say it's $100 worth of assets in the whole country, okay? The bottom line, on the other side, there's only $100 in circulation, okay? So the bottom line is that we're chipping away here, going back and forth. That's a balance, supply and demand balance. What ends up happening with inflation is that on this left-hand side, all of a sudden we got $130, and these assets were $100, right? Well, what do you think's gonna happen? I'm gonna bid against you, you're gonna bid against me, and we're gonna raise that same asset up to $130. We might even raise it up to $160, but we're gonna raise it up to the amount of cash that's available. That's what inflation does. That's the first part of it. The second part of it comes down, the doubt that you had the bottlenecks and all this stuff, no doubt about that, but the second part of it, which is the biggest, is that it got into folks need more money, and they have paychecks because the aspect is they can't afford the prices that have gone up so dramatically. Once it's in the system, meaning the payroll system, that's when inflation takes off like a rocket ship, and that's what's happened. That happened a good six or seven months ago, okay? So now the real question is, is that okay, what slows it down? Well, I suspect what's gonna happen is this, that we actually went up 30% on everything. I'm talking about everything, 30%. It's right across the board, right? Now the question is, how is this gonna come in? Is this gonna come in? Another drip, drab, six, 10, eight, any of those numbers per year? I suspect for the next few years, it's gonna be there in spades. Now, what's gonna be interesting is this. An order for the, well of course there's always two scenarios at least, right? If the Fed blinks, then yeah, guess what? You know, bottom line, if I said when I mean blink, that if they don't go up in rates as fast as they should, what would end up happening? Yes, the stock market would go up, housing would continue to go up, and then you'll probably have some kind of social revolution, man. Because if you think there's inequities in the system now, the inequities in the system would be so far out, you know, there'd be a problem. And now I can't see that one. The reason I can't see that one is this, is that I think people having had enough time already paying rents. So what I actually see is that they're gonna have to break this cycle, man. That's the bottom line. And you know, let me tell you something, that's not the easy thing to say because when I'm personally even saying to myself, I know that okay, man, you're gonna come in for some losses, and those losses, yeah, I say that okay, they're paper losses, but what if they're paper losses for five or 10 years? Most of the time, when something like this happens, folks, right, my take is that we have about four years left. I think this whole thing started last November. We're gonna be going down for about a year and a half. We'll get, you know, some relief September, October. We should probably make, you know, people keep saying we're making a major low here. My take is that's not even close. We'll make a major low, my take, September, October. You go up for a bit and we'll find out at that particular point, okay, is that just a relief? And we're still gonna have a little bit more to go because I think all of this is gonna have to do with what the asset cost versus what the payroll is versus almost, you know, how people can live. And the wild card in this has to do with the large funds buying single-family housing because what will happen, we'll see how this shakes out inside of that because you gotta remember something, man. This is the first type of downdraft we've had since the funds have been buying single-family housing. And, and this is where, you know, they've taken a huge amount of housing out of the marketplace. So the real question is, will they keep coming in, buying, holding it up, or in fact, that it gets crushed so fast that they'll back off and then you get first time buyers that can actually get in the marketplace. It's gonna be tricky, man. The whole thing's gonna be tricky. But I just, I suspect there's a downd, there's a resetting of assets worldwide and we're just at the beginning of it. That's how this thing seems to be, and none of us really know what the reset is. Is there, you know, at one second it says, oh, how could it ever get down 20, 25% overnight? Well, guess what? Just look at some of the stocks, right? Look back how you were thinking, you know, nine months ago and then look back at what the NASDAQ's already done. All of our decisions of perception, folks. That's how it works. Dow industry is up 705, NASDAQ's up 296, S&P's up 101, stay right there, folks. We'll come right back. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. 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S&Ps are up 99. No doubt, man, you get a bounce going here. So let's take a look at this. We know that the DAX didn't hold price. The FTSE almost didn't hold price. This is up nine and a half bucks, okay? So you're gonna get some flak stock. The SPI is at 3.75. 3.85 is basically ice. So we'll see what, see if we get some follow-through and see if we at least get to that swing point of 383. That's a the SPI. We take a look at the NDX100, the three Qs. Right now, they're holding price also. They're at 7.57, 281. This one looks dicey, man. Let's see, 282.34. So check this out, man. This is actually gonna be a failure on price and volume today. Let me go see if this other one. Cause this should close over 282.34. You get over the high of the 13th of June. You're gonna close underneath it. You had volume there of 94 million. You only had 44 million. Let me go back to the SPI for a second. It might have done the same thing. Oh, I see the SPI didn't even get there. Yeah, the SPI didn't even get there. So you've heard me say this a million times, man. The NASDAQ brings you up, the NASDAQ brings you down. So I'd be really careful. Cause I think you very well may have a one day, one day here, man. If the Q's don't close over, it's 282.34. That's a buck from it. That's about as anemic as you can get. That's what it comes down to. And what that would be telling me is that overnight, if that's the case, overnight, what you're gonna see is this dollar is gonna go higher again. He's down 255 right now. The swing point to keep your eye on is 105, 500. 505 to be exact, 105. So it's a thousand ticks from where we are. But you've rejected lower price today at 103.938. Cause as this dollar goes higher, the market can't stand it now. Oh, as you remember folks, the bank and Clare hot out the bull can run you over. And thank God, there's always another trade. Health habits and prosperity. Have a great night, folks. Have a safe night. Come back and visit Tommy tomorrow morning. Kicks us off nine o'clock in the morning. Great show, folks. Real! Look at him, folks. Building well.