This I'm commander Ron Sonier. It's SAUN IER Commander of the major Crimes Division Wanted to brief you about the incident occurred yesterday afternoon about 1240 ish or so in the afternoon Just want to remind everybody that this is a still a very active and ongoing investigation We're still working it very hard. So get you some preliminary information that's out here As it goes on some stuff may be subject to change based on what we go But I wanted to kind of get out and get you some information going to start kind on the timeline of the events that occurred as on March 17th 2016 at approximately 11 20 a.m Officers responded to a bank robbery at 530 South Holly Street Once they got there they were able to determine that this was a takeover style bank robbery Which is generally a very violent type robbery The suspect in this case was armed with a handgun He fell any menace to all of the victims that were in the bank at the time and Eventually was ordering those victims to be pruned out on the ground face down When we start seeing in my past history with a lot of these bank robberies when Robberies start progressing to the point that they're putting people down on the ground and face down You're escalating the level of violence and the propensity for violence We did get out a special bulletin with pictures Crime stoppers bulletin that was placed out. I shortly after the crime that was distributed I believe that the Pio's have if you need copies of it and don't have it there So the safe streets task force that works with the FBI and Denver We have Denver officers assigned to that task force began the bank robbery investigation into this and We're very actively working on this investigation Shortly before April 11th. They started developing some information That led them to obtain an arrest warrant for a party For the aggravated bank robbery being armed So the warrant was signed on April 11th. It was immediately turned over to the FBI safe streets fugitive apprehension group Another leg of that same task force. They began running and developing information on the location of the suspect In the early morning hours of April 11th or April 12th They were able to locate a vehicle associated with our party and began surveillance on that vehicle a Plan was put in place to utilize our Metro officers on any takedown on this particular deal the While everything was kind of in progress on this the suspect came out to the vehicle with another female and a child Got into the vehicle and this vehicle wound up going mobile The surveillance detectives began following this vehicle ultimately Following it down to the point that it parked over here in the 1300 block of North Banach Street and Began watching that vehicle getting resources into place to affect the arrest of our suspect the detectives in this particular case watched the vehicle and watched the female occupant and the Small child exit the vehicle and they began walking away from the vehicle at one point They began walking back towards the vehicle that was aired across the air and Then they walked back away from the vehicle once they felt that it was clear that they're only occupant that was in the vehicle Was there the decision to move up and try to affect the rest was made So officers pulled in to the car in an effort to try to box it into the position The vehicle did back up just real briefly. They readjusted their cars and pretty much Limited how much that vehicle could move forward Based on information that we have from witnesses and other evidence that we have at the scene the officers from the Metro SWAT unit Spent approximately one minute or just under one minute time giving verbal orders to the suspect at the vehicle There was some indication that there was some acknowledgement and there was non-compliance By the party that was going on For those that were at the scene yesterday the vehicle that is in question or the suspect vehicle in this particular case Does have some heavily tinted windows on both the passenger and driver side Windows so it's very hard to see into the vehicle from the side The officer that was at the front like I said everybody was giving orders For this guy to comply. He had some indication of non-compliance He definitely didn't open the door or decide to come out as it went on The officer that is involved in this is watching the scene and the suspect comes up with a threatening tight maneuver and Comes up the officer believes that the the suspect has a gun and immediately opens fire There were several rounds fired on scene by just one officer The suspect then went Down in the car the officers moved up fairly quickly Requested an ambulance code 10 medical profession were able to respond in and The party was pronounced at the scene there our investigation then started we began talking to witnesses civilian witnesses police officer witnesses and the involved officer detectives worked late into last night on this particular case and You know began a search a search of the vehicle like I said late last night We were not able to recover any firearms in the vehicle We then have the autopsy that is occurring today and we're able to you know complete the search on the suspect Over there at this point. We have not recovered a handgun Related to that So like I said based on the information that we have we know that there are additional Potential witnesses out there. I would ask if anybody in the community has Observe this or has information about it to please reach out to the Denver Police Department and Make themselves available to us So I think go ahead and open it up for questions at this point Is Okay, the car from the Crime Stoppers bulletin is not the car that was used in the vehicle The vehicle that the suspect was in yesterday or the party that was wanted for Aggravated robbery with a handgun was his own vehicle It is the same part yes so Okay, yes sir I don't want to go into a lot I mean bottom line you had it was very limited as to how much could be seen based on the windows The officer that discharged his weapon was probably one of the only Parties that had a clear and visible view into that vehicle We're going to continue our investigation And do some more towards that. I don't want to get into it but Really that the really only good unobstructed view into that vehicle was from the front windshield area He was standing behind cover of his vehicle, but he was the only one that was positioned in a point So he and there was one other officer that you know could indicate they could see some of the suspects actions Can you say anything about how many commands were given to the suspect? I know numerous commands were given based on you know evidence that we have witnesses that we've talked to There was well over or up to approximately one minute worth of commands that were given They were immediately began based on you know information we have from civilian witnesses to the police officer witnesses So the actual number of commands. I can't answer that Commands were you know show your hands, you know, you're under arrest We need you to step out of the vehicle those type you know commands to try to take this and resolve it in a peaceful manner None of the commands were followed the of anybody that I was there like I said There was some indication from you know one of the officers that there was you know some non-compliant gestures being made Any other questions I Think going into it, and I guess that's part of what I missed This was a very violent bank robbery that went on and this is information that was provided to all of officers on this Our suspect also had a fairly lengthy criminal history to include assault interference extortion Shoplifting dangerous drugs weapons violations a fairly long record that went with that He's also done, you know some prison time based on all that You know so the information that they were acting on because of the crime that he was involved in originally He had a weapon his past history of having weapons. They believe that to happen So the officer, you know as he came up in a movement He believed that he had a gun in his hand, and he took action based on that belief I guess that's some of the questions that we're gonna task this is a very dangerous individual That we do believe we needed to take into custody sooner than later But as we move forward with this case, you know When it moves on to like any any internal investigation those will be questions That will we we will be looking at asking and hopefully come into the answer right now I'm working very hard at doing the criminal investigation side of this Some of that stuff we're gonna gather some of that will be gathered in my investigation They will use my investigation To move forward with any internal As with any officer discharge of a weapon whether a party's hit or not the investigation is originally starts off With what I do in the criminal aspect of the investigation that entire investigation Is overseen by the independent monitor as it's going on and then the district attorney's office is Intimately involved as with our partners from the Aurora Police Department that came in and assisted us That will then be presented to the district attorney where they will make a determination Going forth with that after that determination is made our complete investigation Will be turned over to the internal affairs division and a presentation to a use of force board We'll then look into whether this was in policy out of policy and move forward on that Normally we don't go into the number of shots that are fired. I will tell you news media accounts yesterday and witnesses at the scene I would say we have cooperated what they're talking approximately seven seven shots were fired normally I don't go into that, but I don't want to miss, you know, the obvious is already out there You have people that were making those statements yesterday, so I'll kind of confirm that and what was your second question We had a lot of officers at the scene We had at least six six plus Metro officers that were immediately there There was a lot of the surveillance and everything else a bottom line We interviewed or took written statements from approximately 30 Witnesses a lot of those were officers at the time Like I said, I believe based on evidence that we have at the scene that there is potentially some more witnesses out there I would really encourage them to come forward and talk to us Absolutely, we're going to be pulling and looking at all the video that has resolved some of the information that I have You know is from some of that. I wouldn't call it high quality Surveillance video that is going to show much, but you know, it does show some so that is part of an investigation We always are going to look at any and all aspects of that We have a tentative ID, I just that's one of the reasons I was late coming in here I was on the phone with the coroner's office They're in the final process of putting something out talking to the individual that does that over there He truly anticipates to have it out within the hour I was hoping that we could come in here, but to follow what our protocol is They're the ones that release that Like I said, we do have family members that were at the scene. I know the family has been notified on this But they're working on doing their final steps that they need to outright confirm what's going on So at this time hopefully within the hour you will have that information I had wife girlfriend I think you kind of depends on who you which person in the family member, but yes, she was Related to or had a relationship with him I'm not sure that the child was his but known to him very well Release the identity Yeah, the booking photo I will be I don't have any investigative need at this time to withhold any of that So that will be released upon them verification. I think the big thing is just verification through fingerprints and Cleaning up part of the thing that I see is we have lots of aliases and lots of Data births by this guy and they you know what the coroner's office expressed to me that they want to be accurate what they put out Generally that's going to come at the completion of our investigation at this point like I said, it's Not the greatest of video, but it's video that helps set a time frame. It helps, you know, cooperate Statements that were made by witnesses by officers. I will tell you it's not good enough that you're going to see Actions or some of that it's it's more kind of gross movement of what vehicles did and you can see People walking and coming but that will all be made available upon, you know the completion of what the district attorney when they come down to it and You know, I don't we don't want to jeopardize any type of actions that may happen before I Don't know that I have that information that information. I know they had the jet that was there I have not heard anything related. I didn't go I guess I can't accurately answer that I do know that it was involved in that crime What involvement it is with him whether it was stolen or something else? I don't have that Did you guys want the officer? Okay, so the other one we're going to go ahead and announce the the officer that's involved in this is Officer Jeff Mott's he's a 93 badge number veteran with 22.8 years on the job. He is currently assigned to the metro spot unit It's MOTZ I I'll get that. I think any other question or I guess that's it. Okay


So you've got exams coming up and you're just not sure where to get started with it all. Are you on the right track? Should you be doing something differently? What are the most high yield topics? Have you studied enough? Or do you need to kick into gear and put your foot on the gas? It's also difficult not to compare your technique with other people on the course or to doubt if what you're doing is actually going to work. What is up guys? Karma Medic here and welcome back to another dose. If you've got exams coming up then this video is for you. It's hard to know whether your studying technique is going to get you the grades that you want or need so here are five life-saving exam tips to help you get through the exam season. My first tip is to have a plan and to have a plan early. It's so important for you to know how your course is structured and when your exams are. You also need to know the type of exams you're going to have. So in medical school for example most commonly we have single best answer questions or MCQs, we have oskies, anatomy spotter exams and so on. I think students really underestimate how beneficial it is to start early with understanding the basic layout of your course and when you can expect to be having your exams so that you can be better prepared for them.  I find it helpful to meticulously plan my year at the start instead of waiting for the last term and then panic ensues. It's always worth remembering that we're really good at talking ourselves into and tricking ourselves into the belief that we have lots of time ahead of us and that we shouldn't worry or we can leave planning until tomorrow. When we all know that tomorrow doesn't really come the idea situation is to use the information on your course and the dates of your exams, other assignments and reading weeks etc from day one so that you can plan your studies around it and try to avoid the trap of tricking yourself into believing that you can leave everything until the last month before exams. You probably can and I'm sure a lot of people get away with that but it comes along with a lot of stress and anxiety and that's something that we're trying to avoid here on the channel. If you haven't already done this don't worry or freak out you know it's never too early to start I always say having a plan no matter when in your studying journey is going to be very very helpful so just think about making a plan so you have a general idea of when things are going to be. Before we get into what you can do if you're in the thick of it in exam season I kind of want to talk about falling behind with content. I've made an entire video about the steps that you can take if you've already fallen behind but I just want to try and remind everyone to make it your goal to not fall behind to begin with if it's avoidable and the reason that I say that is because if you stay on track throughout the semester then it's a little bit of work every now and again consistently and you stay where you are once you've fallen behind everything kind of becomes exponentially more difficult to get back on track and then get ahead once more and so just trying to remain a little bit consistent throughout time is a lot easier than having that falling behind sensation and having to just do tons and tons of work just to get back to the same starting point. Now I know that a lot of the time it isn't avoidable if you're on well or if you have other commitments outside of academics or you're just having a really bad day you can't reschedule something like work etc but I think that building into your study routine the fact that you might fall behind at some point and sort of building in this margin of error or this safety net is really helpful when it comes to planning and one way that you can get around this is that if you ever find yourself with a little bit more free time you know obviously take that time to go out and have fun and see friends and whatever but dedicate a sliver of that time to looking ahead you know at lectures that are already available or doing some of the readings that you know you're going to have to do anyway next week or in a couple of weeks. Sometimes lectures from the previous years are already available online and so you can just look at those and get ahead with that little bit of free time that you have this can be really helpful especially as you approach exam season because once you reach exam season you kind of just want to be reviewing the content and the notes that you've already gone over and that you've made you don't really want to be looking at new content making new notes and seeing things for the first time so close to your exams and if you've had a little bit of free time throughout the semester to do a little bit of reading ahead it usually just propels you that much more so that when it comes exam time you're less stressed you have your notes ready and you can just review them for me personally the idea of cramming or pulling all-nighters or you know studying really really intensely before exams causes me a lot of stress and anxiety and part of the reason that I work so hard throughout the year and that I work so hard generally is because I'm trying to avoid that stress I'm trying to avoid putting myself in a position where I would be so anxious and worried and stressed pulling all-nighters and things like that and one of the ways that I've been able to do that is by reading ahead in some of my free time or down days. I cannot stress enough how important active recall is but also how important doing active recall is early on in the academic year it's helpful to get an idea of what your uni is going to be testing you on way before you even get to exam season the benefit of this is that you're doing something that is going to help you remember and understand and apply the content for exactly what you're going to be tested on. If you do pass paper questions early on in the year then you're going to be able to learn the exam structure learn the type of questions that are going to be asked for you and see the cumulative effects of learning information at spaced intervals as you get closer to the exam. I've said it before but at least in medical school I feel like 80% of the marks that you get in your exams are going to come from something like 20% of the content so you really benefit from learning what these topics are early on in the year. Doing pass paper questions or going through flashcard decks that you might have gotten from the older years in your university even if it's on content that you haven't quite gone through yet it doesn't matter. Starting early to build up that familiarity with topics that you're going to learn about in the future that you even might not know about right now is really really helpful and it can tell you what to harness and focus your efforts and your energy on when it comes to studying. Obviously if you haven't seen this material before and you're not familiar with the questions then you might not be scoring as well as you'd like but especially at the beginning I really wouldn't worry about the scores it's more about getting familiar with the types of questions with the types of content and just getting used to what you're going to be asked on the exam. As time goes on and you review that material and you go over those topics in your lectures and your tutorials etc then you can be expecting to score better but I really wouldn't worry about it at the beginning. Okay so if you're only seeing this video a month before your exams and you need some tips right now for while you're in the thick of it the best tip that I can give you is to be really clear about what your time is worth. I see a lot of people spending hours on making flashcards or notes and other resources that already exist out there. I think this can generally be a pretty big waste of your time you could be using this time to actively engage with your content through pass papers and pass paper questions. It's so important that you consider where your time is going especially when you don't have a lot of it and with limited time you want to make sure that you're focusing on the most high yield materials, the most high yield content and topics that are likely to come up on the exam and will actually move the needle for you in terms of getting a better grade. Using resources from older years, exchanging study notes with your friends, organizing study groups and finding more creative ways to use your time instead of just sitting in the library or in your room studying alone reviewing your notes over and over again can be really helpful. You've always got to be thinking about what's going to best engage your brain. Are you going to do better with doing one hour of flashcard making or one hour of flashcard answering? Oftentimes students don't realize that there are already resources out there which can prevent them from duplicating that work and putting a lot of time and effort into doing the sort of preliminary stuff before the actual highly engaging stuff like answering questions and recalling information. My advice is to use all of the resources available to you and to continuously ask yourself am I spending my time in the most high yield way. Another important thing is about organizing study groups. One of the main reasons that I did so well in my oskies is because I studied with other people. You'll learn so much from other people on the course and you can ask them about things that you're struggling with and you can consolidate your learning by explaining things or teaching them to other people as well. If you don't know people that well just start a what's up group and add people who you'd like to know better or you'd like to study with and get in charge of organizing something. I've personally been the king of this method every year before exams. I'd always make a what's up group and I'd put like 10 to 20 people in there who I knew on the course. I'd send a message with something along the lines of all right guys the time is here we have to start preparing for finals. Let's pool all of our resources together in this group and share everything that we have and then people would send over their notes their flashcards their pass paper exams like everything you name it and suddenly we were all in a much better position with all this shared information and resources than if we were all just studying on our own and all of this because I made a what's up group and message 10 to 20 people which took me like five minutes. Everybody wins and you'll be surprised about how much people want to be included in something like this especially when you get closer to exam season just most people don't want to take that initiative and take charge of actually making the group. So my last tip is to rest meaningfully and consciously even if you've left everything to the last minute you still need rest. There's no scenario where you're going to study day and night for multiple days in a row and still keep your sanity.  You can't study effectively if you're not resting regularly and meaningfully. I mean look maybe you can I don't know but I'll speak for myself and in order to study hard I definitely need to rest hard as well. I personally keep quite a strict schedule which includes resting time for doing whatever it is that I want in my day and also to make sure that I get my seven hours of needed sleep at night. If I don't do that then I'm much more likely to burn out and then also when I'm studying during the day and I'm tired it's not the best thing for you know retaining all of that information and actually learning it properly. You need to rest between topics and between blocks of studying in order to be able to learn that information more efficiently. As you've seen in my previous videos I have a really strict study routine especially around exam time but it's so good to know that in my downtime I can do whatever it is that I want. I have this really strict differentiating line between my studying time and my resting time and that means that when I'm studying I'm completely focused and I don't have my phone I don't go on social media and I'm just doing all the hard work and then in my resting time I don't have to think about work I'm not guilty about not studying because I know that I've already done that and I can focus all of my mind and my energy on having fun and resting. Even though in my resting time my to-do list is still full of things that I need to do and I know that I have a lot to get done I know that I deserve this break as well and I should take advantage of it and rest as much as I can. I really like to remind myself as often as I can that it's important to rest my mental health in order to get the most out of my studying time or my productive time in the day. If you are finding it difficult to get in enough rest or your mental health is deteriorating then please reach out to your friends, your family, your personal tutors at university or anyone who you trust who might be able to help. I know at least here in medical school there is help available and you know universities are used to dealing with students who are struggling with their studies, with their mental health, with whatever and so they have experience dealing with these issues and they're available to talk to if you need them. So please do remember that and don't suffer through it on your own or struggle through it by yourself.  And that is it guys those are my five life-saving exam tips that will hopefully help you get through your exams. Hopefully this video will have added value in some way shape or form that can help you adapt your studying routine for the better. I hope there's something that you've been able to take away from this video even if it's just a reminder to reach out to friends to study together or to take rest or even just to start planning for exams from now no matter how far into the academic year you are. If you have any tips that you think might help other students then please do leave them in a comment down below. And if you're interested I have my Patreon the Karma Club where we do lots of these live study with me sessions and you can ask like-minded people questions about studying and everything else. It's just a great place to be I'll leave a link in the description down below if you're interested. And that's it from me I'll see you in the next one. Peace. Show em. Amazing eh? Greek Blizzard.


So this is a very big topic. I think we are going to be quite selective in taking on particular aspects of this. You'll notice that this conference actually was about the mapping of the future of development economics. It's not about economic development, it's about development economics, and indeed wider is a university that teaches and researches in development economics. So let me start by making a few observations about what progress there has been in development economics. Then I want to look at what do we tend to do in microeconomics today relative to what we have been doing for the last 30 years. I'm going to extract some shortcomings of what we do in relation to what has happened to development economics. And then I want to present some results which derive from the way we do some of that microeconomics, especially using field experiments. And then I want to reflect about some of the issues that are going to be on our agenda for the years to come. So one has to be really impressed. Oh, I don't have a screen here. We have to be really impressed by the fact that what happened to development economics in the last 30 years has been a stunning story. It used to be a field that was a maverick in the econ departments. It was considered to be not sufficiently rigorous, not sufficiently empirical. It was considered to be too interdisciplinary as opposed to really focused on what the economic theory had to contribute. And then what we see is that the field has been mainstreamed. Most major econ departments in major universities have by now a field in development economics. The importance of the field and the research coming out of it is illustrated by the fact that publications used to be very much into field journals. And now we see that the top journals are very receptive to papers in the field of development economics. And indeed, there is a very large number of such papers which are published in the top journals today, which is unique and quite new. And there has been a huge growth in the fields, in the number of students, in the number of positions, in the dynamics of the job market. And this job market is not only in academia. It's also in the institutions. It's also in the private sector. It's also in the philanthropic sector. And there's quite a lot of positive energy. If you go to the NEUDC meetings, if you go to some of the specialized development meetings, you cannot be but impressed by the fact that there are so many ideas. It's kind of bubbling with enthusiasm and ideas. And that's really the fantastic achievement that development economics has had over the last 30 years. What do we do in this microeconomics of development that characterizes what is sort of now looking forward as opposed to what we have been doing over the last 25 or 30 years? I think there are two big revolutions in a sense. The first one is how we do things. And so here what we have is sort of no longer big ideas, but the big ideas are not in terms of what should be done. The big idea is how to do things. New methodologies, new approaches, new ways of thinking about development, new ways of conceptualizing the development problem, and new ways of using data. So clearly new approaches, much more pragmatic based on diagnostics, recognizing heterogeneity, customization, experimentation, sort of coming up with solutions that are being constructed in the case of particular context, giving us in a sense a lot of degrees of freedom as to how we are able to address the development problem in a particular area. So the big revolution is how do we use that information? A lot of rigor as opposed to kind of looking for policy recommendations, which are going to be based on spurious correlations, on partial correlations. What we want is causality, what we want is identification. There are going to be different ways of achieving it, right? And there is no gospel as to how this can be uniquely achieved, fortunately. But clearly the filter and I think the reason why we have kind of been upgraded in the development profession and upgraded in the hierarchy of journals is precisely because rigor has become a commonly shared criterion as to how do we do development economics today. And this is important because it links to kind of results-based management, which is what the agencies and the governments want to have today. Namely that if we do policy, we want to make sure that there is causality between the instruments that we propose for policymaking and the expected outcomes of those policy interventions. We have discovered the possibility of experimentation the last 10 or 15 years. A very important revolution in the way in which we kind of manage information. We go to the field, we partner with local institutions, we organize experiments, we collect new data, we do baseline survey, we do follow-up survey. So we are eventually in the field for extended period of time in relationship with kind of partnering with local institutions who are development agents. So it has taken sort of academia into the field. It has sort of democratized government. It has made us direct agents of development instead of development being done by the big agencies in a kind of top-down fashion. So kind of bottom-up interventions where a PhD dissertation can be a mechanism to explore new ideas and those new ideas can have very significant policy relevance if the ideas which are being explored are worthwhile. And then the last dimension of this methodological advances is the access to big data. The fact that we use now data that are kind of satellite-based, night-by-lights or it could be kind of micro data of different types it can be data, administrative data that we collect in enterprises much more access now to census data on a kind of sampling basis, etc. And the fact that we work with those massive data overlaying and combining those data gives us the possibility of moving into much more natural experiments. So we kind of combine data access to the regular revolution if you like looking for ways by which we can find exogeneity which is going to give us ways by which we can achieve causality and derive policy implications not only from the RCTs from the randomized control trials which is one way of doing it but also from those natural experiments which tend to have the advantage that they tend to be much broader in terms of scale. Hence they have second round, third round effect. They are things that have been sustained over a longer period of time. They achieve eventually scaling up. And so the policy implications of what has been done in terms of analyzing them via natural experiments has much more value than what we likely will ever be able to do with randomized control trials that tend to be local, tend to be confined, are difficult to sustain over time. And as we will see, has the TRN or what is the external validity that those particular experiments are going to have. And then in terms of the new emphasis I think the easy way out because it's so multidimensional is to think of the SDG versus the MDG. The MDG last 30 years. The SDG next 20 years or so. What else kind of some of the highlights, especially in the dimension of more microeconomics that we see appearing on the agenda for research. Certainly the emphasis on equality equity but especially on inclusion. Inclusion in terms of labor market, inclusion in terms of process, inclusion in terms of job satisfaction, inclusion in terms of kind of progressing, developing oneself in the context of a particular job. Think of the counterfactual which is youth rebellion which is social instability. And so here is really an agenda item which is very big which is not the same as just inequality is closer to equity but certainly there is more to it which is that what you do in terms of income generation, whatever is going to take you above the poverty line also has to be satisfactory for the standpoint of a life program. Focus on vulnerability, a big missing element in the Millennium Development Goals. We know that vulnerability to uninsured shocks is a source of new poor. That vulnerability to uninsured shocks is also a very high cost in terms of economic growth. That a lot of irreversibilities are due to exposure to uninsured shocks. So that links to social programs in a very important way. But what in a sense we need to do is get a better understanding that there is a lot of instability. That instability is very costly but that instability can be managed. As a consequence, it is a very big research item that is coming in the years to come. The role of behavior, Joe Stiglitz talked about it quite extensively. If you look at the Banerjee DuFlo, it starts in a sense by saying behavior and experiments. Those are the two pillars of what J-PAL and this approach to research is doing. But in a sense, if you think of the Millennium Development Goals and the ones that succeeded and failed, it's quite likely the case that the ones that failed more than succeeded are the ones that require more behavioral changes than the ones that could be handled mainly via money transfers or via kind of hard instruments. So important to understand rationality and irrationality, important to understand how people are going to react to what is going to be proposed. One world development, I think that's quite obvious, the sustainable development goals arriving from the Rio agenda tell us that it's a shared responsibility. And that's kind of new if I look at myself in the trajectory of 30, 40 years of research and development. That's not the way we used to think some years back, namely that there are lots of zero sum or at least we need to collaborate and we need to coordinate better in the sense that we are jointly facing two issues which are going to have very strong externalities, very strong spillovers across boundaries. Environment, resources, trade, but also migration and kind of emerging issues which are going to be very high on the agenda. And then finally the focus on state and governance and governance which made its way into the sustainable development goals. Stiglitz very much insisted yesterday that there cannot be success without a strong developmental state. We know that most of the poor by the year 2030 are going to be located in failed state countries or in post-conflict areas. We are going to have to learn as to how to deliver aid in hard places where we cannot count on the institutions as easily as you can in the context of China or in Brazil or in Mexico. You have to either find surrogates to the institutions in terms of access and delivery but also very much on the agenda, building the state. In other words, in the longer run, those aid programs will have to be delivered via the state apparatus and hence creating a development state. Development state is certainly high on the agenda. And yet this is one we know, one of the elements about which we know least as to how to proceed with this when we start looking into it, every case historically has been quite different. One from the other is hard to extract kind of simple lessons and guidelines as to how to proceed towards the construction of a developmental state. So all of this is fine but what we see in a sense is that there is a cost to this mainstreaming. The cost to the mainstreaming is that the way we do, especially the microeconomics of development in this sort of elevated university context, if you like, has some potential cost of which we should be aware of in order to kind of think as to how to counteract those tendencies. The first one is that I think the micro link has been very severely lost. It used to be that when development was more a maverick field, we were all both microeconomists, microeconomists, but also trade economists and also quite interdisciplinary. Our friends in anthropology and sociology didn't quite know if we were with them or if we were in the econ department. It was kind of all one thing and it has the great advantage that we were able to kind of capture the multi-dimensionality of what is the reality of the development problem. Things have become much more partitioned. Things have been much more driven by the quality of the analysis and in a sense the kind of, especially the micro-micro link has been lost in part because the micro has not progressed as rapidly in terms of empirical rigor and satisfaction for the micro people. And then the second is kind of a loss of the policy commitment. The pioneers of development were all the Hirschmans and the others, Rodenstein Roden and the Liebenstein were always strongly policy committed and engaged into policy advice and policy making. The fact that now advanced research in development becomes more of an economic exercise. The prioritization of topics is different. It's much more the urge to public in top journals as opposed to the policy implications that they are going to have. If you think of the refereeing of journals, quite often they are more concerned with the rigor of the analysis than they are concerned with the content and the value of the policy implication. The field experiments, and there has been interesting debate on this and I don't want to go into the randomized controversy that Angus Dieter and others and Martin Ravellian and Mark Rosenswaig have important contributed to this. But it's quite clear that what we can do with randomized control trials is a subset of the policy questions that can be raised. Those things tend to be small and tend to be short run. They are focused on particular policy instruments which are mainly transfers, nudges of different types and subsidies. There has been a bit of a development populism in the sense that a lot of interest as to how do we transform poor people and true entrepreneurs, when in fact the way out of poverty is much more likely to be via wage employment in medium and large firms with good jobs where you have kind of wage progression as opposed to trying to transform people into entrepreneurs. The rate of failure in entrepreneurship is extremely high. The cost of failure is incredibly high because there is no risk sharing mechanism. And then you incur that and then you find yourself into bankruptcy without even having started a successful business. And then there is clearly in the context of those experiments, the loss of the second round effect, the loss of general recovery effects, those things are hard to sustain over time. So let me mention some of the results that we get via those approaches of field experiments. Let me take them into agriculture. I mentioned just a few issues. The first one in a sense is the importance of self-selection. Quite often what we want to do is to avoid placement bias and selection biases. In fact, in terms of what we do, quite often we are going to be better off with the self-selection of the right people who can, for example, make a better use of the cash transfers, achieve higher multipliers. I think the work that Kerry is going to be describing, achieve higher multipliers out of cash transfers. If you want to have a demonstrator for your new seeds, what you want to have is a farmer who is going to be able to use those seeds productively. So in fact, quite often what we want to do is to start our experiments with a self-targeting, a self-selection procedure, a bidding process, a rolling transaction that allows you to reveal types and hence to choose with whom those experiments are going to be run. We have to be very careful as to what it is going to mean subsequently in terms of external validity. But it is one way by which we can secure more success in the experiments that we make. Second, we can use those randomized control trials to estimate a full demand function. One of the big puzzles, I think, in our field is the kind of vanishing demand for what we consider to be useful product in health, in fertilizers and seeds and vaccination, et cetera. High demand with full subsidy, but very highly price-elastic demand, and the demand collapses way before it reaches market price. So what we need to know is should we subsidize? Is it a one-time thing? Should it be recurrent? Or is there kind of dynamic learning, especially if the outcomes are themselves stochastic, to only learn when, say, for example, a bad shock happens as to what is the value of an insurance product? But then what you learn is also something that you de-learn, because if there's no shock during a certain time, you're going to learn what you have learned in the context of a previous shock. So it could very well be that those optimal subsidies are in fact permanent subsidies that need to be constantly adjusted to past events, to how much learning and de-learning there has been, and hence we kind of use those randomized control trials to estimate a full demand function and to, as a consequence, adjust the subsidies that should be consequently offered in order to sustain a desired level of demand. Puzzle of low uptake of index-based insurance. I think that games in the field have been quite revealing here that basis risk is a very strong deterrent to the demand for index insurance, that in fact index insurance should be elevated from the individual level to the institutional level, and then to count on internal redistributive mechanisms whereby premiums that are being paid to a group, to a cooperative, to a state, to a governor who is insuring his programs via an index insurance, how those things are being redistributed internally. Risk-reducing technology, flood-resistant rise, for example, what we find, which is quite interesting, is that sure, they are protecting yields in bad years, but they're also creating incentives to invest better and more in the normal years. And it could very well be that over time, you have expected gains which are as much derived from what you do in the good years, knowing that your bad years are going to be protected than the avoided losses in the bad years themselves. And then finally, the importance of learning in the context of heterogeneity, that what we find is the extension services have typically not worked because they are addressing an heterogeneous clientele without adjusting what is being said. And that we need is much more customization or recommendation to allow for heterogeneity that people in social networks tend to learn more not from the big people, but from people who are more like them. Why so? Because they know that heterogeneity is important. They will only use the observable part of heterogeneity to notice what other people looking like them are actually doing. And it could very well be that instead of, if there is a lot of heterogeneity, instead of making recommendations, it's better to help people make their own assessment. So they will be able to adjust what they do to their own conditions. Those conditions are going to be changing anyway. So for example, an example is leaf color charts. You help people tailor the fertilizer application and the pesticide applications they are going to make to the way the plant looks like and you give them a way to assess in a simple fashion what the plant seems to be needing. So instead of telling them what to do, you give them a mechanism whereby they are going to assess what they should be doing. So let me finish with just a few recommendations as to how to do better in the future than what we have done in the past. I think that there's a very big issue that the rigor of revolution is creating a certain degree of myopia in terms of what we do. We kind of fail to elevate our sites. We fail to address the big issues. And that's why I look at an institution that's being so important and this kind of periodic chance that we have of coming back here. It allows us to kind of look beyond the demands of rigor to look at the big issues and to think, well, how do we go about using what we can do in order to fit our questions to what are the big challenges and the big gaps in research. I think there's a serious need for professional guidance to achieve more relevance. First you rigor, yes, but with a plan. That is, we do a succession of experiments but those experiments should be expected like converged towards something which is bigger than what each of those experiments is doing. And for that, we also need to have some kind of a vision as to what matters in the end and how we can break down the successive steps that we're going to take research-wise in order to converge towards this bigger issue. We need to inform external validity. In general, we are very concerned with internal validity and respect. If you go to seminars on campuses now it's all about internal validity and endless discussions as to whether the criteria of rigor have been sufficiently satisfied. But we fail to talk about where was the external validity. We should, in each of those experiments, make significant effort to characterize the external validity so that we can accumulate what we could call mega-domains. Place by place, where do those results apply and what are the places as a consequence where policy recommendations are going to apply out of experiments. We obviously need to identify channels but for this we need to plan the experiments to identify the channels. We need to measure general equilibrium effects. The first results, the immediate results of most of the experiments are quite fallacious in terms of subsequent implications. The prices are still high. There's little competition. The soil has not been exhausted. So second round, third round, general equilibrium effects will be quite different from what has been measured here. So here to avoid the fallacy of aggregation we have to be able to either sustain those experiments over a longer period of time or then go into empirical modeling where we model those phenomena using the experiment to identify the parameters that are going to be used to construct those models and then to engage into policy simulation. Suddenly we need to use more natural experiments back to the big data which allow us to take a broader perspective, a longer perspective and to incorporate into results the general equilibrium effects that we see. And then finally policy relevance. I said that in a sense the mainstreaming of development economics takes it away to some extent of immediate policy concerns. But we have to be careful of sort of bring those experiments, bring this research back into contact, intercourse with government demand, with institutions so that there is more likelihood that the results of our research are going to be policy relevant. Thank you very much.