Today's fifth program in Exploring Climate Change in Vermont features Brian Tokar. I am your host, Steve Lobb, and welcome, Brian. Thank you, Steve. It's great to be here today. Good. We can start by you giving us a little background of what you do in relation to climate change here in Vermont. And tell us about what you teach in connection with the Institute for Social Ecology. Sure. I'm happy to. I've been living here in central Vermont since the early 1980s and have been part of, as you mentioned, an organization called the Institute for Social Ecology, which has been doing international education on a host of environmental and social and political issues actually since way back in the mid-1970s. It started at what is now Cate Farm, which was then part of the campus of Goddard College, and used to run huge programs with hundreds of people through the mid-to-late 1970s at the very beginning of conversations about alternative energy technology and organic agriculture. And a lot of things that we tend to take for granted here in Vermont now were brand new then, and people were coming to the Institute to study. We operated at a much smaller scale now. We had our own campus up on Maple Hill in Plainfield for a number of years. Now, we really do most of our teaching out on the road. We had a program in San Francisco this past spring. We've done seminars in New York City and Western Mass and a lot of other places, as well as an internal gathering that happens in Marshfield every summer. But I'm also lecturing in the environmental program at UVM these days. I've been there for about 10 years, and I teach a series of activist-oriented classes on environmental issues and movements around food and climate and a whole host of things, including a new class coming up this spring specifically focused on energy and climate issues here in Vermont. The students will be doing projects with a number of different organizations over the course of the semester. I've been writing about climate issues pretty intensively for about 10 years, but my background goes way back before that. I really got into environmental activism in the 1970s during the height of the movement against nuclear power here in New England and around the country and really around the world and saw how an organized social movement can really not only change policy, but change the way people think about the relationship of our communities to all of nature. And that happened in the case of stopping the expansion of nuclear power at a period when the U.S. government was planning on pushing ahead as fast as they could. And that movement also raised issues about what the world should look like, what the alternatives are, how we can build our communities in a more resilient way that doesn't depend on those kinds of inherently destructive technologies. So my background goes back to the anti-nuclear movement. I took a break from energy issues for many years focused on toxics with the movement that came out of the struggle in Williamstown that folks might remember. In the 1980s I worked on food and GMO issues for many years out of the institute. We coordinated the statewide town meeting campaign against GMOs in the early to mid-2000s where eventually more than 80 towns passed resolutions against GMOs. And that led to big debates in the legislature and was really the precursor to the more recent wave of activism that led to Vermont passing GMO labeling, which of course went into effect just before the point where our law was completely preempted by the feds. But raising consciousness through our town meetings here in Vermont is something we've been very much engaged in at the Institute for Social Ecology for many years. Now that's interesting to hear you talk of that. In the 70s and early 80s I personally was in Hawaii doing similar things where we started Hawaiian seafood plantation which was aquaculture and very experimental and very huge. There's 160 acres of intense aquafarming and then with the theme of nuclear is too much, especially Hawaii with the military we started the first wind farm in Hawaii which could have been one of the first in the United States. Fantastic. As a demonstration of how wind power is important. So as time goes on we learn our different connections to the past. Absolutely. I mean back in the 70s at the Institute they were traveling around the country finding these old wind power generators on farms in the Midwest mostly that had been out of use for decades and they were bringing them here and refurbishing them and creating the first generation of wind power here in Vermont as well. Of course those turbines were very small scale. They were basically enough to operate a single farmstead and were tiny compared to the facilities that we're seeing going up now. But in terms of climate issues I've been really focused on the climate situation again now. Again for about 10 years I started writing articles on the theme of climate justice back around 2006 starting to get messages from allies and colleagues around the world that we really needed to pay attention not just to climate science but also to the inherent social justice dimensions of the climate crisis. And that led to a series of articles that eventually led to me writing this book which folks can see hopefully on the camera called Toward Climate Justice. This is actually the revised edition that came out in 2014 and since this book came out I've redoubled my focus on these issues. I've been on the board of the Vermont affiliate of the 350.org network. 350 Vermont was established just a few years ago as really the first state-based group affiliated with the big international network to take on its own campaigns and have a distinct identity as a Vermont-based organization. We helped start that along with some of my students from UVM back then. And right now through 350 Vermont and a number of other organizations great support from the Vermont Sierra Club for example. Once again we're going to town meetings around the state this time with petitions calling for a number of things one a ban on any further expansion of fossil fuel infrastructure in Vermont the gas pipeline that many of us were involved in fighting over the last four or five years in Chittenden and Addison counties was really the biggest expansion of fossil fuel infrastructure here in Vermont in many decades and it's clear that if we're going to do something about the climate situation the first thing we have to do is end the expansion of the use of fossil fuels and of course anything we build now is going to be expected to be operating for 30, 40, 50 years into the future and we need to be off fossil fuels by then according to all the climate scientists in order to have any chance of the world of the future bearing any reasonable similarity to the world that we grew up in. So ending fossil fuel infrastructure more rapid adoption of energy conservation and renewable energy because you know the state has set these general goals of 90% by 2050 but we're far behind where we need to be in order to get there and then to make that transition in our energy systems in a way that's genuinely just and equitable and people in communities that have a high energy burden because they have long commutes or we live in houses that aren't well insulated, Vermont is the oldest housing stock in the country and a lot of drafty old houses that use much more energy than they should it shouldn't be the burden of those individuals to bear the cost of the transition it needs to be shared in a reasonable way and there are a number of proposals including for carbon fees and changes in the tax system to address the problem in an equitable way and then also a number of towns, Marshfield being one, have added to their petitions a number of specific steps that their town energy committees have developed changes that they want to see happen to their town infrastructure, to their transportation systems specific measures that can happen on the town level to get us to where we want to be at a more reasonable pace so that's a very current effort and here in Montpelier folks are petitioning to get it on the town meeting day ballot and I hope people will be following the discussion and coming out and voting for more renewable energy and a ban on more fossil fuels on town meeting day town meetings are a very wonderful and efficient way to let the voices be heard to those who make the laws and that's a wonderful part of Vermont that means we have a little bit of edge on other places that don't have town meetings definitely it's wonderful okay now to set the stage for further conversation and to emphasize to the public the unprecedented weather phenomena that has been going on just in the past six months the summer I'd like to point out a few things so that we don't lose focus of what goes on outside Vermont and will as time goes on influence what goes on inside Vermont a whole lot so I'll mention here whether a bench unprecedented in extended regions will say around Vermont and think of how we might relate them to what we might expect here in the future and maybe near future just in the past summer in North America and Caribbean there were three powerful hurricanes all at one time going down Hurricane Alley where the water was up to 90 degrees the sea water in the Hurricane Alley I used to live and dive in those waters and anything above say 82 both stirs up a hurricane and it's miserable to swim in I'm sure and 90 degrees for me is like the frog in the boiling pot but no one would have believed such a thing even 10 years ago that heated water also applies to acidification of the ocean killing the basis of the food chain and the coral reefs and so much so there's a lot of powerful things going on in that way there were also at one time last summer five different hurricanes threatening U.S. all at once this is the first time and the intensity I think the crucial point is that the intensity of this past summer's hurricanes was unprecedented and the intensity of hurricanes is directly correlated with sea temperature the heat of the ocean in the tropics and subtropics is where hurricanes that actually sweep across the Atlantic from the continent of Africa the temperature of the ocean is what determines how strong those storms are and another occurrence last December and then again recently having hurricanes wander up past the 45 degree latitude right up into the way northern Atlantic up between Norway and Greenland almost going around Iceland and then one this summer reached all the way across to Ireland and Scotland yes I don't believe has ever happened exactly no no this is this is all new and the worst effect in some ways of these big storms is the big waves yes that won't let the ice freeze right so particularly in December where ice is trying to freeze if we send big waves up there and break it all up it's just not good plus that warm water of course both from the Norwegian sea and from the Bering Sea go up and go under the North Pole wow so that last December I do remember many times it was warmer at the North Pole above freezing yes that's right and I didn't check it today but that could well be the whole ladder I don't think that's the case right now but the whole ladder part of last year Arctic temperatures were running 30-35 degrees warmer than normal yes including the last another unprecedented situation and before we get past the hurricanes of this past summer we have to make sure we don't overlook the incredible devastation that people experienced in the wake of those storms the devastation of neighborhoods in and around Houston, Texas and the rest of the Texas Gulf Coast and then the subsequent two storms the effects they had on so many of the Caribbean islands including Puerto Rico Puerto Rico is for me special in that I have two children born there wow and I have lived and loved Puerto Rico very much fished and sailed and what is going on now government-wise with our federal government well do yeah I just read this week that there are parts of Puerto Rico that expect to be without electricity for another seven months yes and that could be way longer yeah and there's actually a delegation of a handful of Vermont activists I just read that are heading down to Puerto Rico to help some of those communities that are still without electric power get equipped with water filters and other passive technologies to help them survive this interim period until they get the power restored so people can look that up and support that effort yeah that's a biggie in my books I was in Hurricane Hugo in the eye of it wow in St. Croix aboard a boat my own boat that I built amazing with four children on board one was four month old and was that ever a nice little plane ride can't even imagine it wasn't that bad for us because we were well tied down right but of course it was six months to a year before we got electricity back in St. Croix and St. Croix is small and actually the homes are built pretty more substantial than in most places in the Caribbean where in St. Croix and I was part of this we set hurricane building standards and that helps a lot but as the hurricanes get stronger well the standards got to be stronger it gets absurd at some point and you know there are places all along the eastern seaboard of the U.S. that are facing similar problems I mean we read about the streets of Miami now being flooded on a regular basis and increasing vulnerability to intense storms and ocean waves all the way up the coast at least as far as Virginia and there are some incredibly vulnerable there are some especially vulnerable places all the way up through the Carolinas in Virginia that we don't hear much about here in Jersey we remember Hurricane Sandy that happened the year after Vermont was hit by Hurricane Irene Irene was in 2011 in 2012 Hurricane Sandy became a so-called superstorms the convergence of several storm currents coming from different directions and yes the coasts of New Jersey and Staten Island and other places all the way up into Connecticut but I am always wondering like Sandy is a good example as storms get stronger and moving areas where they aren't typical of before when are we going to get something or some storms that we can't repair from and there are parts of Vermont that are still rebuilding from Irene and people may or may not remember that Irene which happened in August came on the heels of widespread flooding here in central Vermont and other places just that previous spring so I remember that May there was major damage to almost every significant road and even a lot of smaller back roads here in central Vermont and then on the heels of that we got hit by Irene at the end of August and that had never happened before here and we just a matter of time before it comes again and you know there are some infrastructure improvements that have been made to prevent the same thing from happening again but there are still a lot of people living in those narrow valleys that are almost certain to be hit again at some point in the not too distant future I was working on the Slayton farm during Irene when the river rose 12 feet knocked out that trailer park right down the road and the organic farm there was inundated and I mean it was bad it was like a lake and I remember leaving as the water rose coming here to Montpelier and getting ice chest full of food kind of responding to the way I would in the Caribbean we get that a lot and I went back to see at three in the morning police and fire department with their lights which is freaky in the middle of the night while boats were parked there people were swimming ashore unbelievable that's a big mark in my mind I'm recalling that just before we went on the air you described yourself as a Vermont climate refugee yes I am a climate refugee from the Caribbean as my age increased and with heart attack I decided I needed to seek healthier climate and I'm happy here we're glad you're here and of course I think it's important to remind folks that there's still a lot of uncertainty and uncertainty isn't a problem uncertainty is inherent to the process of scientific inquiry but there is still and will continue to be uncertainty about the climate contribution of particular weather events but there are a number of things that are very clear and I think it's important as people weigh the relationship between particular weather events and long range climate trends to understand some basic facts the first is warmer air and the earth on average is a degree warmer a degree Celsius that is which is almost 2 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than in pre-industrial times warmer air holds more moisture at this point it's a difference of a few percent but that few percent is enough to create a situation where a higher proportion of our precipitation comes in the form of extreme storms the northeastern U.S. turns out to be the most affected by that you know we're not as affected by the hurricanes and the extreme floods and droughts and wildfires that we read about in other parts of the country but here in the northeast the proportion of our precipitation that comes in the form of extreme storms has increased has almost doubled it's gone up by 75 percent in just the last decade or two so the first is warmer air holds more moisture and that means that more of our precipitation comes in the form of these drawn out periods where the weather doesn't change you know the atmosphere holds more moisture and then it takes longer to release it so that's one thing the second thing it seemed to me this past summer and particularly toward fall that the rivers were just drying up after they were at some of the highest levels we can remember in the spring and early summer I built a dinghy to take down the Winooski river from the headwaters to the lake and do some camera work and fun adventure and the river was so low I couldn't float my dinghy and I had to put wheels on it oh no and then I decided it's getting to be a silly project that I better put on the back burner but both the dog river where I am often and Winooski so low and lower than I'd ever seen it and that's not a statistic because I don't really see it all the time and I haven't been here that long but anyway and that was immediately following a period where the rivers were at their typical spring maximum well into the beginning of the summer longer than I can remember that being the case for and I've been here 30 years so you know there's just the correlation of water vapor with temperature then we have the extent to which the severity of storms directly follows the predictions of the climate models climate scientists have gotten more and more sophisticated at modeling the earth's atmosphere predicting long term trends and the climate models have been telling us that we're going to be experiencing increasingly severe storms and that the pattern of severe storms and the pattern of temperature increase is going to follow a certain profile over the map of the earth where the most intense effects are in the tropics and subtropics and in the extreme Arctic and here in Vermont we feel a little bit protected as you've said from some of those extremes because we're in that intermediate zone between the heightened effects in the tropics and subtropics and the heightened effects in the extreme Arctic but that distribution of climate and weather effects is what the climate modelers have been predicting and talking about for well over a decade now and then the third thing is that finally in just the last six or seven years climate scientists have gotten a handle on the methodology for how to actually calculate the climate contribution of particular weather events 10 years ago nobody really knew how to do that and the first significant paper came out at the early in 2011 looking at some catastrophic flooding that happened in the UK in the early 2000s and they were able to say that within a particular statistical confidence level you could say that the likelihood of this storm having happened without climate change was much much smaller and that science of calculating the climate contributions of particular weather events is getting better and better the major national meteorological organization now issues a major report on this every year and they're able to say you know that for example hurricane intensity is a function of ocean temperature so what's that contribution what are the contributions of other specifically climate related factors and we can say some much more definitive things about the attribution of particular weather events to long range changes in the climate just a observation that I've wondered about and this is more of a gut feeling than the fact that I've kept up with all the climate modeling but so many times in looking at the models I've said to myself this can't be right and what now I'm hearing from some well-known high-powered very respectable climate scientist is that our models have been off on the timing bad so the things that were supposed to happen 100 years ago or 50 years ago that what looking from 15 years ago are happening today You mean 150 or 100 years from now are happening today Yes It's happening faster Yes, way faster Yes And this hockey stick effect the exponential effect has seemed to kick in stronger than anybody anticipated Yeah, I think that's true Like another strange You know 10 years ago most climate scientists believed that if we were able to keep average warming worldwide below one and a half degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels that we would be able to continue living in a relatively stable climate and now we're only two-thirds of the way there and we see the effects that it's having and of course the diplomats have been pushing for a two degree limit and all of the projections from the various pledges that countries have brought to the table at the UN negotiations since the Paris Agreement was signed a couple of years ago those projections take us out to three, three and a half, maybe four degrees relative to pre-industrial times again that's four degrees Celsius which is about seven and a half degrees Fahrenheit so we're getting, we're approaching if we're not able to do something relatively quickly about this situation a range of temperature difference comparable to the difference between the present day and the last ice age the difference is getting is heading toward becoming that extreme and you know we talk about wildfires and floods and hurricanes now and the projections for what we're facing if we get into that three to four degree range are just truly horrifying we're talking about the complete breakdown of any semblance of climate stability anywhere on earth yeah and then that leads to government instability and then we don't even want to think about where all that leads well you know people have been saying for a long time that if we can't solve this problem I remember Al Gore wrote this in his first book back in 1991 before he ran for vice president that if we can't address this problem in a sensible way relatively soon we're going to be facing very extreme very authoritarian militarized approaches to trying to solve and that was twenty years ago and now our military does take this way more seriously than our leader exactly and yes it's a huge factor in national security it is another thing that happened this summer which is kind of an irony I have built a boat called Saled meant for the Arctic and it is a work boat with an underneath configuration almost like Catamaran so it is in fact a Saled wow and in my dreams five years ago this summer it was going to be the time when I sail out the St. Lawrence up to Greenland and then we'll see from there well for the first time ever and unthinkable for everybody there was an ice jam from the Arctic all the way down the coast of Labrador to Newfoundland there were ancient icebergs that because of the warming of the Arctic waters had dislodged themselves from sort of being frozen in and were able to move with the current they mixed with frozen ice and this is summer we'll say coagulated for lack of another word and that whole coast of Labrador and Newfoundland jam packed so inaccessible well thank God I didn't make it my little boat had been eaten alive but the coast guard with their latest research vessel was there to do research on ice and they got stuck the icebreaker stuck along with ferries fishing boats the worst is oil tankers I mean this isn't nice to hear oil tankers stuck in big icebergs it's a bad combination especially for those of us who remember what happened in Alaska in the late 80s these oil spill type things there's no way to clean them up and particularly in that part of the world there's a fishing industry that is hugely important anyway that was also a unprecedented phenomena but the goal stream I'm told is beginning to slow down yes I've read that too and the effects of it sending currents up around Greenland has a lot to do with this phenomenon of the ice jam makes sense and not only and also the ability of that hurricane to reach across to Ireland absolutely that as well and then we all know about the unprecedented floods and fires we're having everywhere particularly in states just all over what's happening in California now and then Northern California just a couple of months ago temperatures well over 100 for most of Northern California all the way up to Seattle this summer Seattle was 124 degrees Fahrenheit at one day that I didn't hear yeah I did I heard it was over 100 the reason it wasn't hotter they said like 4 degrees hotter was that there was a film of smoke making a cooling effect from the forest fires in Canada anyway these are big numbers to confront and then here's another thing I'll mention that when when I see the jet stream on the weather news and the way the Arctic vortex polar vortex wobbles right it seems to wobble nicely for Vermont and I'm trying to grasp this if that isn't also part of the reason Vermont has less problems in many places but here's what I'm going to mention now last spring the Arctic polar vortex crossed the equator right I remember that first time ever such a thing and it was sort of a one-shot affair but later in the summer there was a period where both the Arctic and the Antarctic polar vortexes wobbled all the way down to the equator at the same time and mixed with each other and that was all around the world and then it wasn't long after that that we had all this hurricane activity in the Caribbean leading up to Irma but this wobbling of the jet stream never having crossed the equator before in our history doing it on massive scale is really unnerving it is and there's a lot of debate about the extent of it and the severity of it but it's clear that everywhere on earth things are happening that we haven't seen before I mean this we're having this conversation the last week in December and we're getting our first extended period of consistent single numbers and below zero weather in quite a number of years and I have a lot of friends who don't remember that this is the way it used to always be this time of year I've been praying for sub-zero weather here we've gotten used to whole seasons going by without any of it that's for sure and of course this all leads to a thing we touched on a little while a bit ago here in the conversation the migration of people when you add the weather phenomena to the war phenomena in the Middle East and the unrest in Latin America you wonder and there is a very small amount of say migration now here in Vermont the wonderful Mexican dairy farmers who have saved that industry here is an ongoing phenomena we are getting a trickle of migrants from war-torn and weather-torn Middle East and of course the Syrian Civil War was partly a climate-related phenomenon because the drought that's affected the Middle East all the way across to parts of Central Asia and as far south as Southern Africa over the last several years forced a lot of a lot of people in Syria off the land there are parts of Syria where people lost more than 80% of their livestock due to drought in the last 5, 10 years people got forced into the city and that was a contributing factor to the beginning of the Civil War it turned out not so much that people who were recent immigrants to major cities like Aleppo didn't get along it's that they had common grievances and we're coming together and that was seen as a threat by the dictatorship in Syria so those refugees from the Syrian Civil War are to some extent also climate refugees of course massive migrations of well over 100,000 possibly several hundred thousand people from the Horn of Africa from Somalia, parts of Ethiopia that have been in drought for close to 10 years now fleeing to the south creating a lot of instability and problems in other parts of Africa and then of course the refugees trying to get into Europe which Europe is finding itself increasingly unable to deal with in a politically sensible way big time I remember something that came to my mind politically was when the Wall fell the West German government and people were happy to accept Eastern refugees from East Germany and they didn't even talk about how much it will cost they just said it's the right thing to do let's do it, bite the bullet whatever it costs, so be it and then Germany and Europe is the leading country for accepting refugees from war-torn Middle East and now Merkel has a backlash about that she wants to accept hundreds of thousands and even the attitude of whatever it costs it's the right thing to do but politically it's getting harder and harder with the right turning elements and the most vicious anti-immigrant politics possibly in the world significantly more extreme than what we're seeing here in the US is in parts of Eastern Europe Hungary and Poland some of the most vicious racist politics is even closer to the surface than it is here now yes that's true that's so true and I can think of many things to get off the subject in that direction but here's a thought I believe it was in The Guardian I read an article that said United States and then we can throw England in there too are the countries that are mostly responsible for the industrial revolution for much of the CO2 that's already been put in the air that even if we stop today that effect will go on and on and on because carbon dioxide stays in the atmosphere for hundreds of years and add to that starting wars all over the place there's a certain sense in which particularly US is responsible for a big part of all the upheaval of migrations of peoples all over the world absolutely so if we want to do fairness and justice in the light of what we have much created of course not all then how many refugees should we be bringing in and the numbers were hundreds of thousands up to 100 million can the richest country in the world afford it it depends on if you want to bite the bullet or not and depends on what we're spending our money on instead giving tax cuts to people who don't need it absolutely continuing to build up the military at a point when US military expenditures far exceed the rest of the world combined we're throwing money in all the wrong directions at a point when the needs are really clear for what we need to be doing and the institutions and individuals that have the most influence over this political system and it's become so much more blatant under the current administration where agencies that are supposed to regulate various industries are being stocked with operatives from those industries we saw that during the Reagan years we saw that during the Bush years it's gotten so extreme now that it's really unlike anything we've seen where you know the CPA and other agencies are being filled with the staffs of those agencies are being filled with people whose mission is to shut them down and literally prevent them from functioning in some ways it's the death throes of a system that's proven itself to be completely unsustainable and in some ways it's kind of the last effort of those incredibly powerful economic interests to extract as much as they can to concentrate as much wealth and power as they can before the consequences of the system become so extreme that they don't have a chance they're really trying to lock in changes in the legal system changes in the financial system changes in the political system that if they have their way would make it impossible for us to make the changes that we need to in order to move to a sane or more humane and more ecologically sustainable future Thank God Vermont has at least Saunders and McGibbon here among many many other people that have a vision on the right track and it can make us feel glad and proud to be a part of that Absolutely, and of course our current state administration is really an obstacle right now but we can have some confidence here in Vermont that that's temporary Can you speak a bit on that? Well you know, Phil Scott the governor has been making statements about how given events like the wildfires in California that Vermont looks so much better in climate terms and that people should come here and everything's going to be rosy and we have a good quality of life here but we know from some of the events that we've been talking about over the last hour that in the long run we're facing some pretty extreme threats and that we know we're a small state with a small population but as on so many other issues we can set an example for how to do things right and we can't let the obstructionists in the Scott administration stand in the way of Vermont continuing to set a good example that hopefully the rest of the country and other countries can start to follow I believe he set up a panel on climate effects He did and I haven't followed that I haven't been to any of the meetings but my friends who have had some pretty disturbing reports people have been going and testifying and making good statements about what's needed in terms of fees on carbon emissions to help ease the transition to a more sustainable energy system about changing transportation more sustainable agriculture simple things like electrifying the fleet of school buses which lots of people have been hoping the settlement money from Volkswagen when they cheated on their emissions had to pay a big settlement that's being distributed to all the states in the U.S. and people have been saying let's use Vermont's share of that Volkswagen money to do some sensible things like electrifier school buses and Phil Scott wants to instead invest in cleaner diesel buses which means again being locked in first there's no such thing as clean diesel that's the lesson of the Volkswagen scam and second it locks us in just like building the pipeline in Addison County locks us in to more dependence on fossil fuels further into the future than we can afford I feel like because it's part of my background that marine engineering is going leaps and bounds we have boats that have just recently sailed around the world on solar power no sail, no fuel solar cells there's a new movement in recreational boating, sailing to use electric motors interesting and this is something I've thought and dreamed about that never thought I would see and it's happening even charter boats in the Caribbean electric engines which are much more efficient than any technology that involves combustion that's a simple fact of thermodynamics and I believe it's Rolls Royce is experimenting with a cruise ship not a cruise ship a transport vessel for cargo and that could also mean oil even but a cargo ship run on mostly solar but still back up with fossil fuel because they have to make their schedule on time but to try to incorporate solar into these gigantic vessels it's just a marvelous way to think it makes our little thing with the cars and even the school bus not childish but smaller Volvo and some of the other European car companies have pledged to stop building fossil fuel burning cars in the next few years a number of countries in Europe and even India have banned the sale of fossil fuel driven vehicles at various points in the future they're getting ready to phase out the internal combustion engine here in this country we're going backwards the clowns in the White House are promoting more coal which the rest of the world has come to realize is an archaic technology it's not just a source of climate pollution but it's a source of extreme air pollution it destroys the health of first and foremost the people who work in the industry that we've known for a long time and it's on its way out of course China and other countries are continuing to build coal driven power plants in various parts of the world because they can export that technology and the US is trying to get into those same export markets because it's clear that there's no future for coal domestically electricity from the sun and wind is already so much cheaper but we're at a point where we're fighting all these defensive battles nationally and to some extent here in Vermont and it's happening at a time when we know we don't have a lot of time left we were starting to see some forward motion the Obama administration was not wonderful on a lot of these issues they were for example continuing to promote fracking and offshore oil drilling and all the rest but we were making some progress in terms of efficiency standards for cars and other modest but significant measures they were so slowly starting to maybe steer the ship in the right direction but the kinds of assaults on every aspect of what's needed to move forward around these issues that we're facing right now makes it hard for those of us who work on these issues every day there are times when we can see fossil free future but we're just able to all live better as a result of being relieved of these destructive and expensive dependencies on technologies that it's time to phase out and then there are times especially when we look at the climate science when we look at the numbers when we look at the weather trends where it's really very difficult to see our way out at a time when we're so focused on defensive battles when we should be moving forward exactly I sort of felt as you're indicating that it should be over for the times of trying to prove scientifically that climate change is happening and it's man-made we're still working on that and that was clear 25 years ago to anybody who was seriously paying attention and I wonder how we ever got to this level of ignorance and are the universities and high schools teaching things about required courses in climate change and the public is willingly or by lack of education grossly ignorant on so much of this I think in some places people are getting this in school but we also have a propaganda system in this country in the form of advertising and corporate-owned and controlled media that makes it really hard for people to think clearly that we have a denial industry as Naomi Oreski's wrote in her book Merchants of Doubt that was turned into a terrific documentary that I highly recommend folks check out the same mentality and in fact some of the same people who for years were speaking on behalf of the tobacco industry claiming that there was too much to legislate against tobacco against cigarettes a lot of the same people are now working for the fossil fuel industry and in fact some of these propaganda methods originated at a much earlier time with the fossil fuel and utility industries so this goes way back these kind of false elite populisms the idea that people are rebelling against elite control and handing more control over to the elites that are actually running things and giving them huge tax breaks apparently this goes back a hundred years some of the work of the famous turn of the 20th century Robert Barron Andrew Mellon who first pioneered this kind of right wing pseudo-populism that we see sweeping the country now we have a propaganda system in this country not just mainstream media and it's extremely well funded and we have of course interests manipulating elections and controlling candidates and threatening and succeeding in running primary opponents against Republican members of Congress who are perceived as being too moderate and at the same time extremes of wealth inequality in this country the likes of which we haven't seen since the onset of the Great Depression of the late 1920s so it's really the whole system that I point to as the source of the problem we really need a different economic system that's controlled by communities that's controlled democratically and this is really one of the core lessons of psychology as well in order to overturn the power of the interests that are holding us back in the area of climate progress that are holding us back in the area of political and economic policies that are holding us back in terms of our ability to control the excesses of the corporations that have everything to gain from continuing to destroy the stability of the Earth's climate Let me ask you about the conference that was held in Bilboa, Spain in October I believe of this year as a way maybe to sum up with a happy ending what we have just discussed the problems of economy, politician the populace but in this conference there were people from Kurdistan boss country of course from areas on the globe where we have ethnic groups you might say that are having huge problems with nationalism however that goes into the picture there were kind of people from Catalan which is going huge right now anyway tell us a little bit about we still have another five minutes tell us about that conference I wasn't there in Bilboa but this was an international gathering of mostly representatives of municipally based movements around the world that are fighting for municipal control that are fighting for direct democracy as an alternative to the kind of elite control that we've been talking about and in the last few years there's been an incredible flowering of people organizing from below of people in many cases taking power in their cities and towns and asserting their democratic rights as a counter power to the continued management of the economy and politics by those elite interests that are destroying the planet and that's happening here in the US as well in the Pacific Northwest there's been an incredible flowering of community assemblies of neighborhood meetings working on taking power back from powerful institutions in Jackson Mississippi they just elected a mayor who comes from a black nationalist background who's committed again to neighborhood control and political and economic renewal from the ground up this is happening in many corners of the country there are several efforts I'm aware of in New York City along these lines and at the institute we've actually been talking about doing an event sometime later this year to bring together folks doing this kind of work across the US so that we can be more effectively networked with genuine movements for local, directly democratic people's power in other parts of the world well good I want to thank you so much for this discussion for your insights for your experience and I certainly hope that you'll carry on strong as a teacher and a fighter for democracy which seems to be an underlying given in order to correct the climate change problem so keep up your good work Thanks Steve, always a pleasure to talk with you Yes


And when we have public events like this, we always begin with a little safety discussion. I hate having to do this, but we're living in an era where we kind of have to do that. I am your responsible safety officer. My job is to make sure everybody here is going to be safe during and after this event. And if anything is to happen, I'm gonna ask you to follow me. We're gonna go right out through that door and right next to it is the escape that goes down to the alleyway. If the problem's in the front, we're gonna go over to the National Geographic Society. If the problem's in the back, we're gonna go over across the street and we'll meet in the park and I'll see if I can get ice cream someplace. So why don't you, but do follow me. I'm responsible and I'm gonna take care of you. It's a real pleasure. It's an honor to welcome all of you today and it's very much a pleasure to welcome the foreign minister of Iceland. I have to share with you a story. Now, the ambassador here were old school chums. We went to school together at Seiss. It was back in, when Custer, I think, was in the army. Yeah, it was a long time ago. And I can remember having this conversation. Gare lined up a lunch that we had with the ambassador from Iceland and we were talking, it was Iceland's mighty but small country and they had 186 countries. They had diplomatic relations with and I said, well, how in the world can you, small country have diplomatic ties with 186 countries and the ambassador said, well, I am the ambassador to North and South America. And Gare, I don't know how many countries you've got under your perfect eight.  This is a, he's a powerful ambassador and we're, and he's also a very dear friend and we're glad to have him here. And foreign minister, we're glad to have you here. You're ably represented in Washington but it's very important for foreign ministers to come because honestly, a big complex country like America, we're kind of a, we can only focus on one thing at a time and it's very hard for us unless someone like you comes to get our attention but you've done that and I think we're going to spend the next hour with each other, hour and a half with each other. Talking about a part of the world that we take for granted, we don't understand is very important to us. It always was. Iceland was always very important to us from a security standpoint for through the Cold War and sadly some of that's coming back. We may talk a little bit about that today. I think we also will talk about the very important role that Iceland plays with the Arctic Council and I would like to welcome Admiral Bob Papp who is our ambassador designate to the Arctic Council and he's doing great things, getting us ready for fairly important session that'll take place up in Anchorage here I think later in the summer and America's focus is draw north for very good reasons. Some of them are security reasons, some of them are economic reasons and we're going to explore all of that today so I look forward very much to hearing what Foreign Minister Svintson says and with us I'm going to lead a bit of a discussion once he finishes his formal presentation but could I ask you with your applause to please welcome the foreign minister from Iceland, Foreign Minister Svintson. Please join me. Thank you. Well hello, good to see you all here. Before I begin, I think you should all try to imagine where Iceland is on the world map situated between east and west, totally inside the Arctic area, Arctic Circle you can say so. So Iceland has through history been some kind of a forefront for North America and also just to remind you that we found America 700 years before for Mr. Columbus but we lost it again somehow, I don't know why but that's the story of Icelanders. Well Dr. Hammer, Admiral Papp, Excellencies, ladies and gentlemen, let me first thank the Center for Strategic and International Studies, CSIS, for organizing this statements forum and inviting me to reflect on Iceland, the Arctic region and its political, strategic and economic dynamics. For most people living below the high north, idea of the Arctic has been of a cold, remote dark place, accessible for only the few determined explorers, retraining and air of mystery and magic. However, it is not longer only the land of the Northern Lights, Polar Bears and Santa Claus, it's also a place of economic development, oil drilling, tourism, entrepreneurship and a place of renewed strategy, strategic importance for Arctic and non-Arctic states alike. Although the climate is cold, the topic itself is somewhat hot. To us, the four million people that live in the Arctic, it is not a frontier, it's a home. Since I took office just over two years ago, I have barely had a meeting with colleagues, home or abroad, where the Arctic is not only agenda. That shows truly how the Arctic is becoming an increasingly important region in global, regional, national and also sub-national context. My government has identified developments in the Arctic as a key priority in its foreign policy. Our ambition is to continue to build on and develop the principles that underpin the Arctic policy that was unanimously adopted in 2011 by the Aesthetic Parliament, I'll think. The Arctic is in principle a well-governed region with strong legal and international structures, institutional structures. Aesthetic policy encompasses 12 wide-ranging principles, including promoting and strengthening the Arctic Council as the most important forum on Arctic issues, the importance and respect of international law, the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea being the most important one. In addition, science and knowledge is a fundamental to policy and decision-making in the Arctic. Also, the policy states clearly that Iceland will adhere to principles of sustainability and protection of the environment, which is regarded as a seminal principle when discussing the future of economic development in the region. Developments in the Arctic include complex and urgent security challenges. Peaceful cooperation among the Arctic states must continue to be based on national rights and obligations. Military activities should be focused on maintaining a peaceful cooperation. If that is to be realized, we have to prepare in advance and we have to prepare together. We must define where our strengths lie, where we can build on existing capabilities, where we have to add capacity and perhaps infrastructure in the future, but we also have to define and prepare against possible threats. The changes in the high north are driven by several interlinked factors, first and foremost by global warming, following by increased demand for energy and raw materials, potential for trans-artic shipping and economic development in infrastructure, tourism and services. Simultaneously, we see a growing number of countries and actors interesting in the Arctic. The key driving force, however, is global warming. The melting of the ice cap is happening at much faster rate than we anticipated. Even if it is only in recent years that the Arctic has been attracting greater international attention, Iceland has participated in political discussion on the future of the region for decades. For example, in October 1987, an international conference were organized in Reykjavik on the possibilities of Arctic shipping. That same week, then sent General Secretary of the Soviet Communist Party, Mikhail Gorbachev, gave a historic speech in Murmansk when he emphasized the growing need for more cooperation and collaboration with other nations in northern Europe. This set a tone for confidence-building in a new era of international relations in the north. Looking back in history, the first major achievement of Arctic cooperation was to build trust and cooperation among Arctic states in the aftermath of the Cold War, based on simple fact that we share the same environment and we share the responsibility for the region. This led to establishment of various regional forums. Most importantly, the Arctic Council in 1996. In the early days of the Arctic Council and its predecessor, the Arctic Environmental Protection Strategy, cooperation that chiefly focused on environmental protection and science cooperation. Today, the Council has moved from being a policy-shipping to policy-making, with two legally binding agreements in place. One on oil spill response and the other on search and rescue. Also increased economic activity, shipping, tourism, and resource development has led the Council to take and expand roles and responsibilities, such as regarding business cooperation and civil and environmental security and protection demonstrated by the two agreements. But at the same time, the Council has been able to adapt to this changing reality with a more open engagement with relevant international stakeholders, allowing them rightfully to contribute to our work. And at our last ministerial in April, the ministers discussed the positive contribution of the observers and the ministers will receive recommendation on further collaboration with them at the next ministerial. The growing international significance of the Council is demonstrated by the fact that it now includes 10 of the 11 largest economies as members or as observers. Six of the 15 largest oil producers and nine of the 20 largest fishing nations in the world, Iceland and the US among them, and China being the biggest fishing nation by far. This interest in the Arctic is not restricted to China. Asian economies, Japan, South Korea and Singapore are also observers. They follow developments in the Arctic closely because they have strong economic interests with respect to shipping, logistics and trade, apart from research and scientific work connected to universities and government agencies. Iceland and China concluded a free trade agreement in 2013, providing for pre-ferential market access for imports of Iceland products into Chinese market. Together with Switzerland, we were the first European nations to conclude a such an agreement with China. And China has made such agreements with several countries in South and East Asia as well as Central and South America and with Australia and New Zealand. Ladies and gentlemen, when members and figures about the growth potential in the Arctic, we should take it with caution. There is little doubt that major possibilities exist. A close alignment with the principles of environmental protection and utilization of natural resources while the application of the best available technology and best practices are prerequisite for sustainable development in the Arctic. Technology has made it possible to utilize previously indexable natural resources in a sustainable manner. A growing human economic activity increases regional and coastal marine transport. Caution needs to be exorcised. The region, the region's sensitive environment and its vulnerability, vulnerable spaces and ecosystems need to be protected from the potential negative impact of this development. Sustainable utilization of marine resources must be ensured. Many of the region's communities, including Iceland, are to a large extent dependent on these resources. This can only be accomplished through the close cooperation of all of all of the Arctic coastal states. Let's not forget that for an island state like Iceland that is entirely located within the Arctic, the region as a whole and the sustainable and responsible development is of fundamental significance. Therefore, making sure that we manage our natural resources for the benefit of future generations is a central theme in our policy. For example, warming of the oceans can lead to changes in the environment and migration of valuable fixed stocks, perhaps out of the Icelandic economic zone. With retreating ice and warming oceans in the Arctic, new areas might open for plankton production, which may lead to new finding grounds for fixed stocks and other marine organisms, possibly resulting in a massive transfer of biomass in the ocean. At the same time, we see changes in ocean acidification that can have huge effect on the living marine environment in the oceans. We must also ensure that increased oil and gas production and all the resource utilization in the region serve the interests of inhabitants and do not undermine the sustainable development of their communities. This includes emphasizing the utilization of renewable energy resources wherever possible. Here, Iceland is in a particular good position to lead by an example. Today, close to 100% of our electricity and heating is derived from renewables, mainly hydro and geothermal. We have also been successful in exporting renewable energy, knowledge and expertise, not least in geothermal. To East Africa, but also hydro closer to home, for example to Greenland. Hydro, geothermal, wind, ocean or solar power will not solve all our problems, but those are becoming increasingly feasible and reliable energy sources. This ensures more diverse energy resources to meet the needs for investment and the development of local communities and economies in the Arctic. Therefore, as we carefully tread the path towards extraction of oil and gas in the Arctic, we need to continue to invest in renewable energy, technology and resources. And our common aim should be for the Arctic to be a sustainable region in the long term, but not a short term source for exploitable valuables. The 1996 Ohtala Declaration to establish the Arctic Council clearly states that sustainable development and environmental protection are at the heart of the Council's work. The eight Arctic States share a common responsibility in maintaining the Arctic as a region of peace, stability and cooperation. I believe the United States' chairmanship theme for the next two years, one Arctic shared opportunities, challenges and responsibilities, captures our common vision very well. Iceland is fully committed to continuing active and constructive participation in our joint work during the U.S. chairmanship. One of the U.S. themes is the focus on the ocean and the establishment of the Task Force of Arctic Marine Cooperation. Iceland will co-chair the Task Force together with Norway and the U.S. We welcome U.S. interest in continuing the work of the Arctic States in safeguarding environmental and civil security in the Arctic and furthering practical international cooperation and regional search and rescue capability as well as oil spill response capacity and increasing the focus on renewable energy and telecommunications infrastructure. Special attention is given to climate change and as we move towards an international climate change agreement at the COP 21 in Paris this year, it is important that we demonstrate leadership in addressing the causes of Arctic warming and work together to achieve effective and ambitious reductions of greenhouse gases. As an Arctic island state witnessing climate change and consequences in the Arctic, we know the importance of taking concrete international actions. The newly established Arctic Economic Council will be a valuable partner in facilitating and fostering business opportunities to stimulate investment and employment opportunities. While advancing responsible economic development in the region, it is not yet open to participation by businesses from third countries including observer states, but we are of the opinion that it should be. That will bring benefits and promote and increase investments between the Arctic and other regions and countries. Ladies and gentlemen, with the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union, the pace of cooperation in the Arctic increased. Regional structures for cooperation were established at a number of issues that had not been on the agenda but were put on the table. Chief among them perhaps nuclear safety and environmental issues. The regional cooperation initiatives that were created aimed at building confidence with Russia and promoting political dialogue and practical cooperation. The Barnas Euro Arctic Council, the Council of the Baltic Sea States, the Northern Dimension to name but a few, emerged in addition to existing strong Nordic regional cooperation and the need to further develop cooperation with the three Baltic States that had their independence restored after the Soviet Union broke up. In the European Arctic and Northern Europe, you see regional cooperation at its best. Considerable time and money has been invested in these regional structures over the last 20 or 25 years. It is therefore particularly worrying to witness current developments in Ukraine. Russia's annexation of Crimea and its subsequent involvement in eastern Ukraine is unacceptable. And such a serious breach of international law that it has gravely damaged our relations with Russia. I have visited Ukraine four times in the past 80 months and I am convinced that ordinary Ukrainians want to see a real fight against corruption that remains alive in the country. They want democracy, rule of law and improved human rights. This was the underlying reason for the protests on the Maidan Square. The old idea of doctrine that states should be within some other states, spare of influence, is outdated and old-fashioned to say the least. Iceland has firmly condemned Russia's actions and we participate in all EU-imposed sanctions. The challenge for western states is to find ways to address the conduct of a neighboring country that does not hesitate to violate international law and damage relations with the West. Russia must realize that the annexation of Crimea is in blatant violation of international law and has consequences. Consequences both for Russia's political standing internationally and for Russia's economic relations with key partners. The transatlantic unity is clear. Just a few years ago when the European Union decided to extend sanctions against Russia and Iceland continues to support these efforts. Having attended the NATO Defence Ministerial Brussels last week, it is clear that the mood is gloomy. NATO tried very hard to make Russia a partner but it appears that the feeling is not mutual. What does it mean for transatlantic cooperation? I think it's clear that we need to maintain and expand the relations between the North American and the European NATO members. And as you know, NATO member states have us lead different relations with Russia. Some are more vulnerable than others, especially when it comes to energy. But Europe has made considerable efforts to seek alternative ways and means to import oil and the particular gas from other sources than Russia, and this is very important. I will, however, stress to anyone here in Washington that NATO continues to hold enormous political value. That includes the extensive military cooperation among allies and partners that produce invaluable results every single day. But it also includes the unfailing resolve of nations that stood the ultimate test during the Cold War. For Iceland, NATO is just as important as it has always been since 1949 when we were one of the 12 founding members. It is a security guarantee through the principle of collective defense. The Arctic states have to be committed to cooperation. Our differences should not damage existing cooperation but at the same time, it will be very difficult to further develop the cooperation giving the situation. Finally, I would like to talk about Iceland's security and defense, including our cooperation with the United States. Iceland has no military forces, with our defense guaranteed by our founding membership of NATO and the 1951 bilateral defense agreement with the United States. These linked security guarantees remain the two pillars on which Iceland's national security policy rests. And I also want to mention the ever-increasing cooperation between the Nordic countries security and defense cooperation that is both timely and highly relevant and covers a broad range of security issues. With the departure of US forces from Iceland in 2006, Iceland assumed responsibility for a number of critical defense-related tasks. This includes the cooperation of the NATO integrated air defense radar system in Iceland as well as facilities at Keplavik Airport. Those facilities are essential for the NATO air polishing mission in Iceland, as well as other alliance operations and in support of alliance traffic and maintaining situal awareness. For a country without armed forces, assuming the responsibility was a major challenge. I am, however, proud to say that the transition was a complete success without any operational interruption. The US-Island defense relationship has matured and developed since the base closure. Our cooperation now increasingly takes into account emerging threats and non-military challenges. The government of Iceland is committed to strengthen these bilateral ties further based on mutual interests. Two areas of particular importance in this respect. First, we will continue to reinforce our partnership through our existing robo-strategic dialogue and strong defense cooperation. Our focus there is both on addressing current issues as well as strategic thinking regarding future challenges and opportunities. Current events show us that the threats are increasingly unpredictable. We must therefore be more flexible in our planning and preparedness. Second, we will continue to work with the United States to ensure that the robust contingency plan are in place for the defense of Iceland and of sea lines and air corridors necessary in support of allied operations. The value of operations and exercises in the Arctic region is once again becoming clear. They are a means of building greater situational awareness and multi-use operational capabilities as well as exercising collective defense contingencies. Finally, ladies and gentlemen, I have touched upon many issues related to the Arctic and Iceland. Our interests are in so many ways tied to the future development of the Arctic. Businesses development and environmental protection and the security of the region are of fundamental importance to my country. Strong relations with the U.S. and other nations in the region and continued international cooperation is the best way to make sure that the development of the region brings benefits to all those that call the Arctic their home. Thank you for your attention. Please form us. Thank you very much. You've opened up a number of very important issues for us to dig into. Let me ask very directly. You mentioned your opposition to Russian military activity in Crimea, Ukraine. A lot of countries are experiencing Russian military maneuvers close to them. What are you experiencing these days? Well, we are experiencing more of activities from the Russian side. They are both in air and under the sea level, if I can put it that way. What we have seen also, they seem to be practicing new routes around Iceland. More activities in the ocean and this is something that we are aware of. But we have seen through the years that they have been doing some kind of this stuff before, even though after the Cold War. But this is in a new... We've never seen it as big as it has been today. They are not breaking any laws. They are outside of our zone. But it is, of course, worrying that if they are trying to push us to the old-fashioned Cold War situation, something that is worrying. But in Iceland, we are aware of the situation in Europe, in Eastern part of Europe, and the new strategic maneuvers that they are showing us from Ulbansk and those places, something that does worry us a lot. Is there a diplomatic exchange that accompanies this activity, or is it silence and just operations in and near you? We definitely address this with their empathy in Iceland. They are doing this because they have not... Let's say they are not very polite. They are not telling us at forehand that they are coming. But that is their style today, at least. They are not doing that also in Baltic Sea or near Norway. But we have always had quite a good relationship with Russia. So we are very honest and open and frank with them when we see there is a reason to do so. You mentioned that you and your Nordic partners are working together on security matters. Is there a collective effort on the part of all of you in trying to talk with Russia? You all have pretty good individual relations with Russia. No, we have not been addressing this together. You are right. We have been establishing a cooperation that comes to security defence. That is an idea based on reports that Jan Stoltenberg wrote some years ago. We have been trying to implement ideas that came from this report and one of them is more of cooperation. It's what we have got in North Africa. But Russia for Iceland has always been a very important trade partner. It's our seventh biggest export country when it comes to Icelandic exports. It's a sensitive issue to deal with in Iceland of course when you have so much to say. But we cannot accept a bond country is breaking international law and conventions without addressing it. For an island like Iceland that rests our independent rests on international law. You can say so. It's very important to take a stand against. We had an earlier conversation about concerns that Baltic states have about their security these days. How do you feel about the vitality of NATO? What is your sense about NATO right now as an institution? NATO has probably never been as important today as an institution. It's very important to keep the political unity that we have had in NATO for over the years. It doesn't worry me a little bit what we saw a few weeks ago about some polls that show that in some countries, people don't think that we should react to Article 5. But I think NATO has showed that the recent months that we are able and capable of addressing issues like the threat from Russia today. And the Baltic states rely very much on the support from NATO. So we have been not shy to support them or encourage them to ask for help, for support. Because even though we might say that some NATO countries may hesitate to do so, as we have seen in the European discussion, Iceland backs up Baltic countries very hard. And we are very pleased to see how the U.S. has taken lead in answering their demands. Iceland never was able to field a large military, but you made a major contribution to NATO because of your geography. Is that something Iceland still can offer NATO this geographical location and the way in which it is an ideal platform for the alliance? Iceland can definitely contribute. And I think it is as important today as it was 20 years ago that this position of the island between east and west. And when it comes to security, defense and security, it is important that in Iceland we have the facilities and equipment to address both security threats and, of course, defense threats when they cannot go. But we have to focus on not only the route between east and west, but also, of course, on the Arctic and not least the North Atlantic, which we tend these days to focus too much, I think, on the security in the Arctic. Because south of Iceland, we have all the North Atlantic ocean and we need to address that also that there can be security issues there and also different defense issues. And we show that today, we see it today when Russia is showing more interest in flying around Iceland with the submarines around the island, that the importance is as important today as it was the strategic location has not changed, of course, and we believe that NATO and other allies need to take that into account if they are worrying about the situation as it has developed. So Iceland is leaning forward with NATO? Iceland is leaning forward with NATO and we have increased our budget for defense, budget for example but we have to remember that Iceland has always been contributing to the civil part of NATO's operations and we will continue to do so and also to support NATO headquarters by personnel and so on even though we are no military, we try to take our responsibility. Let me shift to ask a different question. Did you, in Iceland about five, six years ago said it wanted to join the EU? And then I think recently decided that wasn't for Iceland. What happened? Well... Other than EU? I mean, I have a problem but what happened? Well, you know, the government today we have always been very clear that we think Iceland should not join the European Union. The former government started this process and we think it was not the right thing to do. It was not based on solid ground when it started. So in our mind it was the obvious thing to do was to withdraw or terminate this application that was in Brussels. But we still see the European Union and the European countries of course one of our biggest allies and we have bilateral relations both the Union and most of the European countries. Iceland is of course a European country. We are not leaving Europe and we are not joining the European Union. But we also see, you know, there is the last years and we also see just today that the Union is, you know, there is some kind of transformation going on in the Union. And for a new country like Iceland that, you know, needs to join the Union it's better to wait and see. But I can understand some of the countries on the mainland why they and the politicians in the mainland they see it a very important need for them to join the Union based on economic security and defense security being so near to Russia for example. But just to be honest, I think the Union needs to, you know, take a look inside in Brussels. They need to look in the mirror and say, you know, what are we doing? Are we doing everything right? We see that there is some time lack of unity when it comes to taking this issue there. And they need to find ways to make things go through the system and must, you know, faster, it's a too slow bureaucracy system there. You're the foreign minister, you're also the trade guy. You mentioned that you and China, Iceland and China better to do a free trade agreement. I can see what you get out of it. What do they get out of it? Why do they want a free trade agreement with Iceland? It's a 300,000 people's market. No, it's a huge... No, no. Well, there are a lot of, you know, thoughts or, you know, people are guessing why Iceland and why Switzerland. Switzerland is, of course, bigger than Iceland, but that's not a major country. The Chinese seems to be, maybe showing that they can, you know, make certain agreements with Western European countries. And this free trade agreement that we did with China is basically just, you know, as all the free trade agreements we have done. We have an old investment agreement with them since 1994, so there is nothing about investments in this free agreement. But we have a side memo or agreement where we can address, you know, for example, the labor market, human rights and etc. We have also statements related to this agreement on cooperation in science and education and so on. So this is basically a very common trade agreement that we have seen done with many other countries based on the EFTA agreements. Why Iceland? I mean, as I said, probably they want to show that they are capable of doing so. They have not get... We are not bending any laws and rules for the Chinese in Iceland. They have to work with the laws and rules that are there. They are, see Iceland, of course, as a member of the Arctic Council. I was going to ask you. And their interest in Arctic is, in my mind, quite obvious. If you just look at the business perspective on the Arctic, the possibility of opening the sailing route, the Northeast route or what you call it, it is an opportunity for them. Are they going... And I don't think we have to worry so much about resources in the Arctic because most of them are based inside of the economic zones of each country. The Chinese, you know, people tend to be afraid of them regarding possibilities of natural resources in the Arctic, but they have nothing to acclaim that because it's a sadist inside the economic zones. Most of it, most of it. So, I think it's in their favor to take part in this. They have got a lot of scientists. They have a very high-level science institutions. They are affected very much from the climate change, of course. We can see that. And having them there is also, and for Iceland especially, it's important to get the opportunity to take the dialogue about their obligation to reduce emissions, for example. And we have been taking that discussion and dialogue with them many times. And in fact, today, I think there is an Icelandic U.S. company that runs with cooperation with the Chinese company. The world's largest space heating system based on geothermal. And that is in China. So we have ways to address their contribution to pollution and the Chinese environment. And they are interesting to learn from us when it comes to that. Very interesting. Let me just open up to colleagues here. Yes, ma'am, you are anxious to be asking for this. We'll bring up a microphone here. Hi. My name is Dr. Donna Wells. I'm a mathematician. I make predictive math models. I am a fan of targeted bilateral trade. There's kind of a debate right now in Europe. Group to group trade versus targeted bilateral trade. Can you talk about that dynamic? Thank you. I guess you are referring to T-TIP, for example. And Mercosur. Yes. After states, we are part of the states, we are trying to push on the Mercosur to have a serious dialogue with us about free trade agreement. And it's going steady and slowly. We think it's better to have groups doing agreements like this than bilateral agreements. Because if you have groups of states, group of countries, it is more effective to have efficient, to have these agreements implemented between the groups. So we focus on working with AFTA. We are also looking, of course, at the development in the T-TIP discussion between the European Union and the U.S. Because Europe and U.S. are for us, Iceland, for example, are the biggest markets for us. So it does matter for us how the outcome will be of this. But it's better in my view. My view is that it's better to have groups doing these agreements than bilateral. But we know the trouble inside the WTO trouble. We know that. There's nothing going on there, in fact, too slowly, at least. So that has put the groups together to try to conclude an agreement. Yes, sir. Right back here, the fourth row. His arm's up. Brian Beery, Washington correspondent for EuroPolitics. Another trade question. I'm curious with your free trade agreement with the Chinese, do you have an investor-state dispute settlement clause in it? Sorry, investment? Because in the T-TIP, the big debate is whether to include an investor-state dispute settlement mechanism. Do you have one in your agreement with the Chinese? Now I have to think. We have some procedures to deal with if we do not agree and if there's a problem. I don't remember if it is the same procedures that we have other than you were talking about in the T-TIP. Sorry, I don't remember. But it definitely is in how we are going to deal with the problems that will come with the agreement. If I remember, there is some rather complicated procedure that we have to go through. But it is, if I remember it right, it has not been, let's say, on the Chinese agenda to give some authorities to a third... To give it away. Yes. Yes, sir. Please write down here. Steve Winters, independent researcher. I have to follow a little bit further on this question about the Chinese interests. I've read that actually the Chinese embassy is quite a large staff in Iceland. In fact, proportionally speaking, if they had the same proportionate staff to the population of the U.S., you would have 200,000 Chinese diplomats at the embassy here in D.C. So my question is, what are you all so busy doing up there that they need such a large staff? Secondly, in terms of getting a footprint in the Arctic, in the Antarctic, the Chinese research stations are sometimes seen more as an attempt to create a presence there as opposed to the research. I know the Australians have been very concerned about this. So maybe you could just elaborate a little bit more on that, particularly what are they all busy doing up there at the embassy? Well, they are next to the Polish station. So I'm quite confident that they have a good look at them. Well, they have the biggest embassy in Iceland, the square meters, at least so far. I think the United States are moving to a new embassy. I'm not quite sure how big it will be, but they are not the biggest when it comes to staff. I think both the U.S. and Russia have more staff members than the Chinese in Iceland. But this is a myth, I think they are so big. But the house is very, very, very big. When it comes to science, and for example, Antarctica and the Arctic, I mean, we have been working with them on very small projects for some time. And they are definitely showing interest and they are showing the capability and capacity to do science. And we have, in fact, these days I think they are building in cooperation with Icelanders a facility in the northern part of Iceland to do some research of the northern lights. And so far, it has been going very well.  I mean, we have to wait and see. Right in the back? You can turn the mic on. I don't think we can hear it. There's a little button, slide it up. There we go. Thank you very much. Much better. My name is Carl Alta with the Joint Baltic American National Committee. We represent the Estonian, Latin, and Lithuanian American communities. Iceland, of course, your heroes in the Baltics. I was in Vilnius on March the 11th and the 25th anniversary of the restoration of independence with Mr. Honebalsen, also who is a hero. So thank you for all your support over the years for Baltic independence and the restoration of that. Just a question to go back to your cooperation with the Baltic countries. If you could say a few more words about that and maybe about the Nordic cooperation and air policing. Thank you. Well, we have a very close cooperation with Baltic countries. Iceland has a very good bilateral cooperation with them and we have also this, we call it the Mb8, the Nordic countries plus the Baltic countries. We meet twice or third three times a year and discuss issues that have to be resolved and where we can work more closely together. On an international level, for example, in the UN and other places, we often work very close with Baltic countries. Inside NATO, we have been very much understanding, we have shown understanding when they are delivering their speeches on how important it is to have more presence from NATO in the countries. We can really understand that. But at the same time, we cannot overdo also because we don't want to be those who trigger some conflicts. That is the other side of the coin. But cooperation with the Baltic countries is not only historical between Iceland and them, but also it is very important. We have Baltic countries plus Poland, for example. We have a lot of people from these countries living in Iceland, so it's very near to us that we need to have a close cooperation with them. We are very proud of the history when it comes to these countries and we will definitely support them as much as we can to remain free and independent. We're right down here in the second row. Bob Goldstein from Army Headquarters. So my question has to do with the Iceland Defense Force that was just established back in 2006 with the increase of aggressive actions by the Russians to include building up of bases in the high north as well as activity in the Baltic, North Sea, and the Atlantic and the Arctic Sea. Do you see a need for the reestablishment of the Iceland Defense Force, either under U.S. or NATO? It's difficult to say, to answer the question that when you say do you see a need for. But we have to address the change in the security environment which we see developing in the wrong direction today because of the behavior of Russia and also, of course, of the threat from south, ISIS and those terrorist groups. I would not be surprised if in the next years Iceland will become more important and the strategic importance will be on the table again. Is a need today to increase presence in Keplerik? I would, just to be honest, I would say that they would be in favor of NATO and favor of the all of the North Atlantic coalition to have the capability at least to respond very quickly from Keplerik and in Keplerik. I cannot say how and when and what equipment and what kind of presence is good to have there but it's definitely something that we need to address in the next months and maybe years. We have been focusing on the Keplerik air base as a place for research and rescue hub. Is it maybe on the NATO level or some other level, U.S., Denmark, UK and others maybe? If you look again at the position of the island in the world map, it's a place that is very well situated regarding search and rescue in the Arctic and also when it comes to the North Atlantic. Maybe there can be some kind of a link between search and rescue hub and some more presence in Keplerik but that is something that we need to see how we will develop but the science that we are seeing from Europe and the south part of Europe or the Middle East, sorry, it's not very encouraging in the way to more safety and peace so I think I cannot answer this question more in a direct way than this. Maybe if Scotland secedes and kicks out the Royal Navy's nuclear forces, you can take them. Just an idea, I don't know. That's something I can tell you. We will not have nuclear weapons in Iceland. Right down here. Peter Sun with Capital Intel. I just came from Iceland. I was in a very busy and moving planet, Hafsos in Northern Iceland. Hafsos? The question is, it sort of adds on to this. You're unique in a NATO member without any military, no army, no boots on the ground. You have Coast Guard already, I think, in Tunisia, Libya on the coast, helping forces down there in Italy. How does Iceland use this fact that you don't have a military to take a special role in NATO talks because I gather when there's no leadership, it's each individual country has, say, in the NATO talks and bilaterals, et cetera. Well, we have a very important role to play when it comes to NATO missions, for example, because we have contributed both in capacity building and also we have taken roles when it comes to headquarters. We have a second thing, a personal and at one time we had, I think, 36 people, for example, in Afghanistan, you know, running the airport, policing and so on. So our role as a NATO member, it's important because even though we are a very small country with no army, we have something to deliver and we can deliver, you know, as I said, personal and we can also deliver when it comes to rebuilding societies and so on. We have been increasing the funds when it comes to Icelandic duties inside the NATO alliance and one of the most important contributions from us is to having the Kepler air base up and running. It is, you know, almost plug-and-play if you need to place an airplane there or planes for surprise, for example. We can do it in a few hours, so everything is ready there. We have had a couple of hundreds of people in the air base not so long ago for exactly for that, searching for submarines. And when we have the air policing system in Iceland, it has been working extremely well. So there is a good example of where we can. I take one last question. We'll go right back there and then we're going to have to wrap it up. The minister's got to get to the airport. He's got work to do. Of course, I think it's kind of lopoulous from Johns Hopkins size. Acknowledging the recent announcement by your finance minister to lift the capital controls in place in Iceland for the past eight years, what does Iceland's experience have to teach Greece with regards to capital controls and your experience recovering from the crisis, imposing justice in society where fishermen turned into bankers? Thank you. This is quite a large question. Well, to begin with, if you look at the situation in Iceland, but actually, Mr. Ambassador Gerhardt should be answering the question because he was the prime minister when everything went over in Iceland. And he was the one who put forward a proposal, a law proposal to the parliament that probably has saved the island to default. But, you know, the difference between Iceland and Greece, for example, is that our debts, you know, they were not state debts. They were private debts. The capital controls were very important. If not, you know, all of these states would have got out of the country and we would have been defaulted properly or bankrupt in very few months because there was no currency for it. It is not good to have capital controls. But we have, even though we have seen interest, for example, from investors in the long-term investments in Iceland, even though we had the capital controls. But when it comes to short-term investments, it has been a blackout, if I can say so. We have managed to recover because we did not take over the debts of the private banks. We had our own small currency. We were rich of natural resources. Our export sectors have been blooming, if I can say so, because of the devaluation of the currency and the tourism industry has been booming. So everything has been going in the right direction and based on the decision that was taken in 2008 to propose this emergency law that Mr Gerhard did, is, I think, the ground that we have been standing on in the recovering way. We still need some years to fully recover and we still have huge debts on the state afterwards. But I would say that in four, five years we will be in a very, very good place because if we manage to have those deals with the creditors in Iceland, probably our debts of the state will probably be 25% of GDP in 2019. It is today somewhere between 50% and 75%. So if everything is going in our way, we are in a very good place in not so long time. I think we want to say thank you, Foreign Minister, you've been candid, you've been very open, you've been very interesting and fresh responses and all of us are grateful for it. Would you please with your applause say thank you. Thank you.