All right, wonderful. Well, thank you very much for having this paper on the program. This is joint work with Nora Pankratz, who's at UCLA right now. We are excited to present this paper here. The title is Climate Change and Adaptation in Global Supply Chain Networks. So over the last couple of years, a lot of research in finance and economics has shown that exposure to physical climate risks has all kinds of effects on farms. It affects their capital and labor productivity, it affects corporate earnings, and it affects stock returns, among a number of other outcomes. So we know that these effects exist. As a result, regulators and investors have been looking for ways to mitigate these risks and to manage their exposure to these physical climate risks. But while we know that these effects on firms exist, a lot less is known about how firms adapt and manage these types of risks. And one of the areas of the economy that's typically the most exposed to this kind of risk are supply chains because they run through different parts of the world that are very strongly affected and exposed to these global climate change effects. And this is exactly the place where our paper tries to shed light on. Specifically, what we're trying to do is we're trying to examine if firms that are engaged in these global supply chain networks are adapting to climate change risks by adjusting their supplier input network. Specifically, what we're looking at is the question if customer firms adjust their supply chain networks when the perceived change in the distribution of physical climate risks of weather shocks changes. We're looking at the question if it affects the termination of existing supplier relationships as well as the startup of new relationships that are replacing those those previous relationships. Before we get to this main research question of our paper, we also study first sort of the necessary condition the question if these customer firms have a financial incentive to make these adaptations by looking at the question if these shocks. First of all, these weather shocks propagate within these within the supply chain networks, estimating the propagation of heat and floods at supplier locations for the financial and operating performance of customer firms. So to give you a quick preview of the results in the first stage of our paper which we sort of think of as sort of a necessary condition for the second stage. We first show that both heat and flood shocks to different degrees but both of them affect and decrease the performance of the supplier firms in the first place and then in the second place also of their customer firms as these shocks sort of propagate and spill over through the through the network. And then in our main part of the paper in our main contributions, we show that when these shocks, when the occurrence of these shocks starts to exceed what a customer could have reasonably expected coming into this relationship from a benchmark period before. The customers start to terminate these existing supplier relationships and they then move on and replace suppliers with other firms that appear to be less exposed at least when looking at the benchmark period before the before the termination of the of the relationship. So our paper sort of sits in the middle of several different strands of the literature, we're looking at adaptation in production networks so we're speaking to this emerging literature on the formation of production production networks and economics. We're looking at specifically the role of climate change when it comes to the formation of these production networks we're also speaking to the literature on climate change and finance and the propagation of shocks and networks that has has grown quite a bit recently by shown that not only do dramatic massive natural disasters, propagate through these networks but only also smaller climate related weather shocks that are not big enough to be classified as sort of big natural disasters and then we also contribute to this literature on climate change and learning. By by focusing on the question how these customer firms learn about changes in the underlying distribution that sort of giving this these these weather shocks. Alright, so for the rest of the talk I'm first going to speak about the data that we use in this paper for a few minutes. I'm going to introduce the conceptual framework that we have in mind when thinking about these results and then I'm going to talk about our main empirical strategy and results focusing sort of on the adaptation part in the most part. Alright, so our data comes from sort of two or three main sources. First of all, we need to identify these existing supply chain relationships we use facts that revere for that. It has the advantage to not only identify existing relationships but also comes with start and end dates of these relationships which allows us to even study the determination and start of these relationships in the first place. A second advantage is that it covers many different countries around the world, which is important because climate change is sort of heterogeneous in the way that affects different parts of the world, which is exactly our underlying assumption when it comes to these these adjustments we supplement this with information on the locations of individual establishments of the firms in our sample to be better able to measure which firms are exposed to weather shocks at any given point in time. Of course our sample is sort of biased a little bit towards larger firms since facts that revere only has listed firms in it since we need financial information. We're a little bit biased towards developed markets as well in the same way because of the reporting requirements that give facts at the data. We think that these data biases would sort of push us away from finding bigger effects that if we had of the full world sample, we might find larger effects because smaller less global firms might have an even stronger exposure to these types of shocks. We combine this data with information from World Scope on firms financial performance operating performance and other firm characteristics. And then we add our two types of weather shocks to this to this data shock particularly what we're focusing on our floods and heat. And we focus on these types of shocks because both of them are well known to be expected to change going forward. As a result of climate change this is different from other papers looking at natural disasters like earthquakes, which are much harder to tie to climate change. The two shocks that we're looking at floods and heat waves are very directly connected and linked to changes in the in the climate. And both of these types of shocks have very different effects on how firms operate so it allows us a little bit to to compare the magnitudes and the types of the channels through which these shocks affect firms and their and their adaptation. Alright, so before I get to our main result. I want to introduce sort of a, a simple theoretical framework that kind of guides our analysis and illustrates how we think about this about this issue so our first stage results are first part of the paper focuses first of all on the propagation of this of these shocks. And so the way we think about this is as an economy in which a number of customers produce certain outputs under perfect competition and for producing these outputs they need capital, they need labor, and they need a set of inputs from a group of suppliers. In our setting as is common in the literature adjustments in the short run are not possible so capital is fixed. And as a result, both customers and suppliers make sort of strategic decisions on who to source inputs from to to maximize their profits. In this, in this in this world, we have weather shocks that are related to the to the climate distribution that are drawn from the underlying climate distribution, and the underlying climate distribution as indicated by this omega t can change over time. And as these weather shocks occur as as has been shown in other papers, for example, Baro and Sylvania and affect the supplier firms in this network. It can constrain sort of the availability of inputs that are important for the customer's production away from the optimal and therefore affect the performance of the customer firms and that's exactly what we do in the first stage of the paper document. Evidence consistent with this idea that not only large natural disasters but also climate related weather shocks can distort these these production networks and affect negatively affect the performance of the affected customer firms in the interest of time. I'm going to mostly focus on our adaptation results which are the main the main focus and the main contribution of the paper. All right, so what we're focusing particularly on is customers decisions to either continue or terminate existing relationships in any given period we call this PT as sort of the decision of the customer to either continue with a supply chain relationship that they have or terminate this relationship. So as we show in the first part of the paper, the occurrence of these weather shocks is costly. And so customers who understand this, before entering a relationship, assess the risks of these weather shocks before entering a supplier relationships. So, exactly before entering the relationship they try to get an idea of their exposure to these shocks by estimating omega zero so the exposure to the shock at the beginning of the relationship. And as a result, all in sort of perfect competition, all existing supplier customer relationships are such that if the risk of weather shocks increases, it would, it would, customers would not be willing to continue with this relationship because the risk of an increase in these weather shocks would increase the the cost that the supplier represents to the customer and make this existing supply chain relationship potentially suboptimal. Right. And so over the course of the supply chain relationships customers continuously observe the actual sort of shocks that occur at the at the supplier firm and reevaluate what they think is the underlying distribution of of the climate. And so, as long as the realization of these types of shocks sort of is below what the customer expected ex ante, there's no reason for the customer to make any adjustments. As soon as the occurrence of these weather shocks indicates that the climate distribution has shifted, and shocks are now more, more likely than they were anticipated to be the customer has an incentive to to terminate and move away from this supplier and and replace them with a different supplier. All right, so how do we, how do we think about how customers estimate both the, the, the omega zero so the expectation of climate shocks, as well as well as well as well as how do they update the their their beliefs well the way we think about this is that customers typically in our setting rely not on forward looking information because this is really difficult for firms to process with with the abundance of different climate models and the complexity in those climate models. It's extremely difficult for firms and practice to use this type of information and so we we operate under the assumption that customers mainly rely on experience shocks as they move through the supply chain relationship. And so the way we construct our main measure of interest our main available of interest is as follows for each customer supplier relationship. We look at a benchmark period before the supply chain relationship was experienced was initiated to estimate what is the average number of shocks that happens during that period of time. And then as the supply chain relationship continues and starts each year a customer assesses how many shocks have occurred on average since the beginning of the relationship to try to estimate if this the climate distribution has shifted and if the number of shocks now exceeds what you could have expected going into this into this relationship. All right, so this is our sort of main specification outcome variable on the left hand side is either a one or zero depending on whether the customer continues with the existing relationship or terminates it. A main variable of interest on the right hand side is this indicator variable that indicates if the observed number of shocks since the beginning of the relationship has exceeded on average what could have been expected coming in from this benchmark period for for the initialization. We saturate this model with fixed effects at the supplier customer industry year level, as well as at the supplier customer and country customer country and your level to account for any other trends or industry trends that might explain what's going on. All right, so our main result is in this in this table what we find is that the exceedance of expected shocks positively affects the likelihood that existing relationships are terminated in the following year. So we find that this is true both for heat shocks as well as flood shocks to give you a sense of the magnitude we also estimate this linear probability model as a logic model instead. We find that the likelihood of termination increases by about 6 to 8% for heat by about 9 to 11% for floods. We do a number of robustness checks estimating this with alternative specifications. We also find that there are a lot of potential hazards models dropping certain observations and find that the results are very consistent across all these different tests. Now, one issue of course that we face with the data is that we cannot clearly observe if the relationship is terminated by the customer or by the supplier. So to give some more confidence in the idea that this is a demand side decision from the from the customer, we are going to look at a number of different characteristics that are sort of indicative of the fact that this is related to a demand side decision. So first of all, we're looking at the question is the the decision that we're seeing is this is this consistent with a learning process on the side of the customer. And what we find is that in line with this idea of a stronger signal and the repetition of the signal, which are both sort of characteristics of the learning process, we find that this effect increases when the magnitude of exceedence of realized shocks relative to expected shocks is particularly high. And when these shocks are repeated several times so those are both characteristics in line with the learning process which which suggests that this has this is this is coming from the demand set decision from the from the customers. And at the same time we also look at transitory shocks. This is shocks by themselves and not compared to the to the benchmark period. And if this was indeed a disruption of the suppliers that is mainly driving this we would expect to find at least as a similar size effect there, which is not what we find, we find that there is a small effect there on these transitory shocks but it is much smaller, and does not have the same magnitude of effect. So our main measure survives the inclusion of this to have these transitory shocks. We also exclude firms that went out of business. We exclude firms that were in financial distress to further address concerns about the supply side and find that the results further to other assumptions that are sort of underlying our our main analysis is that customers and suppliers are both operating in perfect, perfect competition and perfect product markets. Of course that's not necessarily the case in reality. So if we are in the in an industry where customers or suppliers have certain market power, we could see that this decision is distorted and in line with this idea we find that the more competitive the supplier industry is so the closer to a perfect product market, the more, more sensitive customers are to exceedance of these shocks so the effect increases with competitiveness in the supplier industry. Of course it's also difficult for customers to precisely estimate kind of expected exposure shocks they have going into this relation relationship, which would again sort of make them less sensitive to to these observed shocks. What we see is that if we change the band of this of this benchmark period if we estimate it over five years over 10 years over 15 years, we find similar results across all of those across all of those different specifications. One thing that I have not talked about yet is this is the presence or the existence of climate forecasts and climate projections for the future so our main analysis as I said is based on this assumption that in reality it is very difficult for firms to operationalize and use climate projections, given the complexity of the models, given the abundance of different models and so forth. And so we mostly rely on this experience change for learning in our in our paper, but to also shed some light on the role of climate projections. So we get some we have some data on climate projections for the for the mid century between 2040 and 2059 from from from several climate models and then we specifically focus on those relationships where there is actually very little climate change projected over that period of time in the location of the supplier firm right so if if the location of the supplier firm is projected not to have a very strong increase in climate change in until mid century, we should observe a much smaller reaction to these experienced shocks by the customers because the projections say that in this location of the supplier, there will not really be a big change going going forward. However, this is not at all what we find in the data so if we look at the sub samples of firms where the suppliers are in locations with very little expected change until mid century, the effect size that we document for climate for for exceedance of the shock expectation is pretty much exactly the same as in the full sample which also kind of supports this idea that the customers are mostly relying on this experienced experienced shocks and the experience changes to adapt and not so much on on model projections. Last in the paper we move on to the question on of replacement so what do customers do after terminating these existing suppliers and to study this question. We tried to match the terminated suppliers with other firms that are in the same for digit sec class so that do very similar things that initiated a supplier relationship with that same customer within a year to sort of try to get as close to actual replacements as we possibly can with the data that we have and then we estimate the exposure of the replaced suppliers and the replacement suppliers over both the period. The original existing relationship, as well as the period after the existing relationship to try to discern if the suppliers that were replaced had a lower expected sort of exposure, as well as a lower realized exposure after the after the termination of the initial after the termination of the initial relationship. Right so our main specification to examine this question puts a dummy variable on the left hand side that indicates whether or not the new suppliers had a lower exposure to these types of shocks than the old suppliers and puts again a the same indicator on the right hand side, which, which, which sort of indicates supply chain relationships that were likely terminated because of the exceedance of the expected number of shocks again we we saturate this model with a number of fixed to do to control for our trends in you know trade relationships industry patterns things like that. All right so before showing you the, the model results and estimations. Let me show you graphically kind of what we find. This is sort of the result for heat exposure, comparing the difference between replacement and replaced suppliers delineating between those relationships where the realized exposure was higher than the expected exposure, and those other relationships where that was not the case. Right and so if we focus here in this first chart on the exposure during the actual relationship, which led to the termination, we see that the replacement suppliers. In those cases where replacement happened because of because of a climate exceedance seem to have a lower annual heat days seem to have a lower exposure to these type of climate shocks than the, the replaced ones which is not the case as much in the ones that were that were terminated without such an exceedance. If we focus on the period after the termination this difference becomes quite a bit smaller. As I'll show you in the table there's still a significant estimate there but when it comes to the realized difference between the replacement and the replaced supplier after the termination the difference becomes becomes much smaller and if we then turn to climate projections for the mid century we do not see a difference anymore so we do not see that here if we consider the climate projections for the very long run, there is a large or any kind of difference between between terminations that had something to do with with climate expectations and and those that were terminated for for other reasons. Let me show you the corresponding quantitative exercise so this is basically just the table version of what I showed you in the in the chart just now we see that the difference between the likelihood that the replaced replacement supplier has a lower exposure than the replaced supplier increases or is much higher if we had this exceedance of climate exposure during the existing relationship this effect is especially strong during if we've measured the difference during the existing relationship it is still significant but much smaller in the period after and and it is much much less pronounced or not present when we look at projected days in the future, looking at the at the mid century if we looked at the results for flood at the corresponding flood results, they look roughly similar however we find a much smaller and not as significant effect when it comes to the difference after the initial after the initial relationship. Five minutes. Oh okay then I'm actually a little bit ahead in this case so I'll take my sweet time here on this on this conclusion slide and and give our discussing a little bit more time to talk about the paper that. All right so so what do we do in this paper let me summarize the the main takeaways. We first of all document that both heat and flood shocks decrease, not only the performance and profitability of the supplier firms, but also spill over to their customers through these supplier and customer networks. This has interesting policy relevance in the sense that it kind of has implications for what kind of disclosure we should require for climate related risks, and how we should think about climate stress tests in the sense that we should include these kind of input output linkages and production networks in our in our model of climate stress. Then in our main analysis in the paper in the in the main contribution. We show that customers are more likely to replace or to terminate existing suppliers. When the occurrence of weather shocks exceeds what the customers could have possibly expected going into these supply chain relationships, and they're more likely to choose alternative suppliers who have a lower exposure to these types of climate shocks, at least when we consider the period before the termination when we consider the period after the termination, whether they actually achieve sort of an improvement in climate exposure is is a little bit murkier and a little bit less clear. So the three areas that we mostly contribute to with this with this paper are in climate adaptation related to other papers who are trying to understand how firms how agents in the economy learn about shifts in the in the underlying climate distribution are papers related to the to the literature on climate change and finance by term by by documenting the the financial implications of the propagation of these types of shocks. And then last to the to the literature on endogenous production networks, which has studied a number of different issues such as legal issues or property rights. So I'm going to do this by by focusing specifically on exposure to to shifts in in the in the climate change distribution. All right, thank you very much for the attention. I am very much looking forward to Michael's comments, and I'm happy to take any questions after the after the discussion. Thank you. Thank you very much, Christoph. So now let me guide Michelle Ketter from HALA Institute for Economic Research. The floor is yours. Thank you so much. Let me start by sharing my screen. All right. So, first of all, thanks to the organizers for for giving me the opportunity to discuss this wonderful paper and thanks to Christoph for an extremely lucid and clear presentation and also for giving me enough time to discuss this wonderful piece of research. Let me hit the ground running since this is our last intermezzo standing in between us and dinner, at least here in Europe. What this paper is doing it provides evidence on firm responses to climate shocks. And I think it is at least one, perhaps even two rich papers, since it is so deep and comprehensive. The paper basically isolates the effects of climate risk in two ways. First, it shows the climate risk realizations to affect directly supplier performance and in a way indirectly customer performance. An aspect on which Christoph didn't spend any time but which basically takes up around half of the results and content of the paper. Second, the paper isolates the effect of climate risk expectations and specifically on how customers and suppliers adapt to changes in these expectations in the form of choosing to terminate and form new production network ties. The main findings that I took away from the paper are summarized in the following bullets higher than expected climate risk in the location of the supplier directly reduces operating performance of these suppliers that indirectly leads to a deterioration of customer performance. And customers are more likely to terminate supplier links that are basically exposing them to higher climate risks. And this is a result which is irrespective of a couple of, I would call them modifiers like frequency or intensity of the expectation shocks, but also on the realization side, depending on the competition nature in the various sectors. And ultimately this leads customers to replace these stressed climate stress suppliers with less stress or less exposed suppliers indeed so I think there's little to add to your work what I had to do because it is such a such an animal with paper I had to landscape it a little bit so what I did some time is that basically the whole driver in an economic modeling sense is unobservable climate change and what I really liked about this paper was this angle that climate risk realizations are nothing but noisy signals of this ultimately unobserved climate distribution. So specifically, these are heat and flood events and deliberately not disaster risk materializations used elsewhere hurricanes that we have seen falling on land or earthquakes. The sections you haven't been seen in the presentation spent quite some time on showing how reduce our supply performance is reduced specifically basically how revenue scaled by total assets and operate results are depressed and subsequently how customer performance and then the second big part where apparently the focus in innovation lies is how expectations of customers about climate risk of their suppliers changes and these expectations then in that of themselves lead to ending relationships in section four. Whenever these realizations exceed expectations so it's a lot about the precision with which customers are able to to forecast if you will climate risk and driving the behavior of replacement which takes up a mere two pages of the paper that I got at least. So, let me use this landscaping to to pose a few questions here so this is and I want to start with this a very impressive empirical exercise I like very much the laudable efforts to combine climate and economic micro data. I have to reveal my ignorance I did not know this fact that revere around 8000 customers in 5600 suppliers over a long range of time, which is linked to financials I wasn't sure if you see financials for each firm on each quarter that are then linked via Orbus to various locations. In 92 countries for suppliers and 74 for customers now. Temperature flood data is very granular, for instance, 0.25 by 2.5 latitude longitudinal grid, but at the end the spatial unit remains a little bit unclear and I will come back to this when I post my questions. So let me start with three main questions on supplier and customer performance. Using my little map. So first of all, the paper is very transparent about taking an agnostic stance about the mechanism. It really doesn't take a stance on how exactly performance is depressed. Now I think that's not quite innocent. Why? Because it might just as well be climate policy in direct response of a materialization of climate change risk. And what I have in mind is that there's a lot of policy that follows exactly at the level of analysis it. The firm in year T due to a climate risk realization think of the flooding of the river elbow a little bit buyers here. Now that triggered a lot of transfer payments to mitigate the fallout of this climate shock in this case a flood. Likewise, there might be taxes that might be directed actually locally at firms in response to specific adverse climate events. And last but not least, think of insurance into which both suppliers but also customers can self select depending on their expectation of climate risk realizations. But of course these contracts will change regarding that price. The premiums will change if you want to have a flood insurance in the old city of Cologne. For example, hardly anything you can get. So there are a couple of events going on at the very level of variation it that might very well correlate with observed outcomes in terms of performance at the both supplier and customer level. Generally I was wondering when reading the paper how important measurement errors and I think it is great to think of it as a production network. But it might be hard to generalize from the sample of selected large firms why I think what the papers doing as you look at country D one having some suppliers that provide intermediate inputs to a customer see in country D two. Now, one thing from a simple smell check on the internet was that Volkswagen alone has 40,000 suppliers. We are looking here at some five to 8000 front so I wasn't sure how comprehensive this network is and we know from network analysis in France's interbank market studies that it is very important how complete the network is your study for instance. Second, the strategy to use headquarters to allocate both suppliers and customers is not entirely clear to me all the time. So for example, if I look at 3M company, which is the supplier of Apple according to their physical statement. They do have for instance in Guangdong, a plant probably, but I'm not sure if you would find financial information on China man land mainland 3M plans, knowing that Minnesota Minneapolis is the headquarter of 3M. So it's not so clear to me and the paper I think could benefit from being crystal clear here. What exactly is the spatial unit so as to understand also the variation source. Along these lines. Let me raise a few questions on on this first part and they carry on I think also to sections four and five which you emphasize during the talk. So let's say we observed suppliers probably from the trade literature we know that only very few firms do what I would coin FDI because the data you have here are basically coming from Apple having a plant in Guangzhou. But the majority of international trade and supply chains I think is going through exporters. So I was wondering if you have something to say about the importance of non incorporated firms. Second, what if Apple sells iPhones to Guangzhou. In the help model of the modes of international trade we know that the size of the foreign market determines very importantly how and whether Apple, the customer see would enter Guangzhou by means of setting up FDI or an export. And it of course raises the question of how clean a shock we are having. I am aware that you have this 500 kilometer perimeter, but still I would be interested in hearing this bidirectionality of the network being incorporated in your analysis. Then there are basically country time fixed effects, but within a country of course these climate shocks are highly localized. So you might be to the right of the river where it is hot and or underwater or you might be to the left of the river where it's cool and you're sitting high and dry. If there are firms as two that are also supplying to see, I don't think that the fixed effects that are DIT do the trick to totally isolate within firm shocks. So I would be interested to hear how this should work. Notabina, this carries over to your analysis of pairs where you have supply country year fixed effects, as you showed us in your presentation, I think, for as long as you have within country variation and exposure, non exposure to these localized climate shocks. Let me skip this point in the interest of time. I'm already my 11th minute and I also want to go through this slide. This is more for you. Christoph, this is summarizing my points I made. I want to spend one minute if I may on the cool new section expectation formation. Now this is a Bayesian supplier type of idea where basically the customer learns about the climate risk of the supplier. I have a very simple question. Why is this learning not taking place symmetrically? Suppliers, of course, also do see the noisy public signal about climate risk realizations and might take action just as customers take actions. They might sever the link. They might just as well take out insurance. And this, I think, would also correlate in a very similar way with something that is observationally equivalent, the termination of a supplier relationship. Say a supplier sees that she would have to ensure, but it's so expensive to get insurance, so she just stops to supply to Apple because it's no longer feasible. So symmetric learning is the heading that I wanted to put up here and there's a couple of examples here. One additional point that might be important is the fact that you are drawing from a normal distribution that's pushing it a bit since I think we are still looking at extreme weather events. So how normal are these aren't these more like tail events that's more technical note. I skip this point. I think the last point I want to make is the expectation formation on past realizations. Clearly, I can see your argument that it is complex to decipher climate forecasts. Okay. But wouldn't financial market participants do exactly this aggregation of information on behalf of firms. So how, how defendable is this assumption that you rather rely on, on past experience only and not look at financial markets, for example, to learn about expected climate risk changes. Let me skip about the nitty gritty. I want to conclude on the main takeaways. This is a great paper. I recommend everyone reading it. Very carefully executed super rich and important topic that potential for high policy relevance and I personally learned a lot. I wish you all the best of luck with this very cool research. Thank you very much. Thank you very much Michelle for very detailed discussion and yet sticking to the time. We don't have questions in the chat so let me abuse my privilege as the moderator and then make a comment. I think one way of responding to the discussants question or is it really climate risk or something else is to focus on financing constraints, because firms don't have many suppliers because it's costly to find a new supplier. So, if you would find that credit constraint or financially constrained firms are less likely to switch suppliers in response to climate risks. That would be that would make you results more robust to the criticism that was raised. And actually in my own work I have looked at propagation of a fiscal shock or an increase in a border tax in Turkey. One thing that was very visible there was that firms that were hit by a shock were more likely to find new suppliers if they were not financially constrained. Anyway, so over to you Christoph you have, you know, couple minutes to respond. First of all, thank you both so much for the for the comments Michael super super in depth I really appreciate it. I think your comment about this being a monster of a paper is probably on point so I highly appreciate you sitting down and spending so much time and reading it in such great detail so much. I'm going to ask you of course to also send us all your your slides and everything so we can incorporate everything that you said. Maybe I'll take the second to just clarify a few things that maybe we need to make a little bit clearer in the paper regarding some of your comments so in terms of the first comment. So the the the propagation this is all done at the quarterly frequency, and it's also done within sort of existing firms with seasonal adjustments and within country by year fixed effects so any kind of country by time period fixed any kind of regulatory shocks that you were talking about in terms of subsidies or, you know, flood prevention measures or things like that should as long as they happen on the on the country level should be should be soaked up by that. In terms of the spatial variation that you talked about we kind of do quite a bit of work to specifically address this directly in the paper. This is why we collect data on the on the on the locations of the individual production sites and facilities, and we do show that this propagation is sort of stronger the more concentrated. These assets and the more concentrated these facilities are around the headquarter. So this is a conscious decision on our part to focus on the location as as a headquarter location. Because we're we're dealing with two sort of bad choices on the one hand you're right that headquarter locations are sort of an imprecise measure of of production activity. On the other hand, facility level data is super super noisy it does not tell you much about how much production activity is actually taking place at these individual locations and so it is just a less promising approach and introduces even more noise than than than it is what we're doing. So this is a conscious choice on our part and we try to deliberately address this by actually testing how sensitive our effects are to that we also have a constraint. And the paper that follows baron souvenir to limit our exposed firms to those that have some some minimal concentration of assets close to the to the headquarter to do guarantee that that's the case. And then last, if these firms were indeed all sort of spread around the world and not affected by this at all, you would have no reason to finding an effect. So I think this would to some degree bias us away from from finding anything. Another thing I wanted to say, you're, you're right about the sort of the granularity or the comprehensiveness of the supply chain data, of course, folks wagon has 40,000 suppliers but not all 40,000 are going to be in our in our in our data set. The reporting requirements that make it possible to sort of identify these these relationships are skewing to some degree towards larger and public companies right we need them to be public so that we can identify their financial performance. We need them to be public so that we can actually identify the existence of these relationships so to some degree this to skews us a little bit towards larger firms towards those kind of firms but we do think that these larger firms are less concentrated to some degree they're more likely to have done some mitigation they're more likely to be able to sort of deal better with these types of shocks. So our, our, our ex ante expectation is that if we were able to identify the entire set of firms. We would likely find a larger effect, at least on the on the supplier firms in the first and the direct effect because smaller firms being hit by these shocks should be affected more than larger firms that can do more to to deal with this kind of with this kind of shock. I'm happy to continue this conversation also at some other point are offline but for now my list of things that I wrote down while you were discussing is at its end. Yeah, thank you.


Oh, do you think he'll spark? No way. It's sparking this early? Yes, sir. We have that read. Oh, open your textbooks to page 45. How's it going, everybody? Datodoy here with another round of Dragon Ball Fighters ranked matches. And today, we're going to be playing a team of Beerus, Beysko, Kouinyamcha. And we're going up against Gotenks, Teen Gohan and Tien. You know me, never once had a problem with Tien ever in my YouTube career. Probably shouldn't be an issue for me. Oh, man. To be honest, Gotenks is still a character that scares me. Oh, that was just fierce. I didn't expect him to go for the cross-up so quickly. Usually, that's something that takes a little time to develop, you know? Did he try to overhead me there?  Because that Gotenks' hitbox is wild. I'm switching out. All right, let's buy a little more time. Oh, wow, he's... Oh, nice beam. Switching me out, I understand completely. All right, we're going to have to respect the mix-up. Never mind.  That's not real. Respect the mix-up. Looks like we're going to be okay, folks. Okay, okay. Bikes to keep it blocking that way. I can respect it. But can he respect this? I'm going to go ahead and... I'm going to take Gotenks back out here. Oh, you've got to respect me, dude. Just show me a little bit. Okay, never mind. You can go ahead and not respect me at all. I understand. Oh, flew right over. All right, Beerus gets the drop kick, and we take out Gotenks. It was in a position where he had a lead for a very long time and just didn't switch out. So... Oh, wow, we're going to get something good to here. Oh, nice reflect. I didn't think you'd be able to squeeze it in there. We are looking low-key kind of dead, not going to lie to you. Oh, we bounced out. If I could have converted off of that, I would have felt like a king.  Stay alive, Beerus. Stay alive for me. Oh, man, this is not good. It's DP. When in doubt, when in doubt, just shout DP. Okay, we're going to go ahead and get out of here. Change of plan, boys. Beerus lived for... I was just going to play with Beerus until he died, but... Oh, do you think he'll spark? No way. He's sparking this early? Yes, sirree. We have that read. Oh, open your textbooks to page 45. On it, you'll find this guy. Oh, and you'll also find me missing my normals. Good clash. Oh, getting bounced around. Okay, what can he really get off of this, though? He does have six bars, and his name is Tien. Tech that. Finally, we're teching stuff. Then again, it did bounce up to four frames. So who am I? Nicely done. Can I go ahead and see some Beerus, though? They're all gone. It's so unsatisfying when you just see all of them blink out of existence. Then again, we do have some severe Kaio-ken cheese. Go ahead, block. Yeah, you could go ahead and keep blocking for me, because I'm going to go right ahead and grab you. Yeah, Kaio-ken is the best level one super in the game. And by best, I don't mean by stat-wise. You're not going to get something sick off of it. I just mean it's the most fun.  No, that was not bad manners.   Come on, I'm not good enough to face someone when they're angry, man. Oh, he's like, oh, you want a key charge against me? Meanwhile, I'm over here like, oh god, no. Well, Beerus went down hella early. Oh man, I expect to get T-Bag this round. I expect to see some serious T-Bag going on. Okay, luckily enough, you do get that yamcha hit, so we will get some corner stuff here. Wow, just raw, just raw clicking that heavy button. I did not expect that. We have to conserve so much out here. If I was a real man, I could have done like the optimal, optimal stuff, but yeah, no, that's not me, bro. Not now. I don't think that was the right assist for the job on that one. I could have just down heavy it anyway, but I was afraid he'd, oh no, wrong character. Okay, good, good, good, good. I feared that would be a little obvious. What the? He was really afraid of the something. He was like, I'm not getting dragon rushed again. Let me catch this level three real quick. Oh, I was respecting the mix-up. We should probably spark, right? Yeah, we should definitely spark. Okay, we pick up a nice kill on Gotenks, which is good for the momentum. We did just use sparking after all. We kind of have to generate some value for that. Oh God, speaking of value, let's get it. Welcome to the... Damn it. No, not again. I keep trying to like click keyblast.  Oh, that's still positive. Kaioken? Okay, I'll hold this. I'll hold it, but you've got to do me a favor and drop Yamcha, dude. Okay. Oh no, why do I keep trying to jump against King Gohan? Oh, I'm such an... Oh, if you can't feel this tension. Oh, he DPs right through it. Why do I always forget King Gohan has one of those? Oh, wow. How many mistakes can... How many mistakes can one man make in a... Drop it. Drop. That's right. That's right. You had to drop it. I'm very glad that worked out for us. I don't know what we're going to do to win this game, by the way. I'm going to be completely honest with you guys at this point. All hope seems kind of lost. He ends seven bars. King Gohan DP character. Really, it's just not looking up for us at all. Like, I don't know. Oh, there it is. I missed the oaky. That's going to be game. Nice. Nice. Nice. Nice. Nice. Nice. One-one to my opponent. If he doesn't leave, that is, because he has no idea that those were all accidental.  It was an accident. It was an accident. You have to trust me, dude. I know what it looks like. Please, dude. Forgive me. Can you forgive me? And he's really trying to find it in his heart. Dude, it was a joke, man. A prank? You ever heard of it? This is going to be it. I already know where this is going. Please, dude. Oh, my God. Hello, friend. I see we found each other once again. It wasn't bad manners, dude. You have to believe me. Dude, come on, man. You can't run away from this. We have to find it within our hearts to forgive each other, huh? If we can just do that, then I'm sure our friendship can blossom again. I forgot I'm playing Beerus. That's how long it's been since we last fought. There we go. Oh, behind the back. Oh, that was a waste of sparking. I was like, why not try to kill?  I should have just, I should have just not, I should have just taken the fact that I couldn't kill him like a man. But nah, I had, I had to overextend. Why do I keep clicking buttons against Tingo Han in the corner? I should know that's a big no-no, but you would think I would know that. Okay, this should be death. Wow, this was, that was so close to me messing that up. I don't even know what to say. I literally, oh my goodness.  I don't know what else to say. Where's the super dashes? This guy's really showing some restraint here. Oh, that hit me all the way up there. That was wild. And he got a bomb loop off. Well, kind of. Oh, come on, at least knock me up not in the corner, dude. If you're going to do me dirty, at least, at least don't do me that dirty. I don't even have, I don't even have sparking to easy get me out of that. So I just have to take that mix up. I guess I could have dp'd, but okay, he does, he does recognize it. He'll take a second bar. I was hoping like he would, he would not, he would like overestimate those single Kamiyami. Wow, we are so behind. They might not look like it at the, at the current life bar. Oh, bad times, dude. Wow. Dude, open up for business. Dude, I'm trying to get in there. Ah, Yamcha didn't come out soon enough. I would hope you would stop that. Dude, this guy is not open for business, by the way. There we go.   Bad beams. When are our beams ever good? There we go. A little bit of a read on the dp. Didn't want to push myself. We still have to deal with TN and level three sparking. So this game is very much anything but over. I hit a button. In my heart of hearts, I felt I shouldn't, but then I did. Okay, he's going to go for it right now. Okay, zero bars at least, but he still has that sparking. Oh my goodness. Okay, okay. I don't think there's any way I can extend this to kill right now, right? All right, he has to spark here. So obviously it's obvious what my read should be, but he's seen it all before. Yep, he's seen it before. Oh, the feet wide. They only one of them connected. This could be death. This is very much death. Hold on. No, it's death. Oh, the read. I shouldn't have gone for it. Oh, I shouldn't have gone for it because he knew. All right, two ones for my opponent. Let's see if he sticks around. He's not going to stick around, dude. He's not going to stick around. He's going to hit me with the full 30 second time out again. Come on. I know you're sitting there on your couch like I don't want to click the rematch, but I also don't want to rematch. Come on, bro.  Oh my God. Well, I guess I'm going to call it there. This is why guys, this is why don't accidentally be here. Just don't do it. It's not worth. My hands legitimately slipped. And now because of that, every time I run into that guy online, I'm getting one and done. Well, let me know down below if you have a favorite moment from this video. It was kind of a shorter one, obviously, but damn, what a heartbreaker, dude. While you're down there, if you like these videos and want to see more of them, make sure to hit the like button and subscribe to the channel because it really helps the channel out and it helps make sure that you'll never miss another video. Speaking of videos, I have a few on your screen right now, probably a little longer than this one. So if you want to check those out, be my guest. And other than that, I'm Dr. Doia. I'll see you in the next video.


Anyway, but I guess we'll get started then if I let me get my notes here And I'm using a braille display to kind of keep track of my notes. So I kind of what I'm doing here My phone time down on me Anyway to start as an introduction why get these notes one I'm sure make people we have her what we have about four or five people just kind of get an idea Okay Yeah, I'm just wanting to there we go either my phone timed outside and read find my notes again, but now we're good Yeah, okay, I just have to adjust this don't I okay? Now I had to use a portable microphone. Unfortunately like this Now I'll slow the speech down a little bit just so we get then I can start getting into and discussing it a bit more Okay, we'll try that. Don't give me very long wires work with us. Anyway, I Wanted to bring up the the idea here that the question being not can blind people use a Linux machine But I want the assumption to be that we do And so the one I wanted to demonstrate today is to move on and say here are the different some solutions that will Use that will use You know to make a Linux accessible so Basically What I wanted to start with is it what you really have is a need for Getting the the lineup of the output from a Linux machine In a form that we can hear it or see it so a blind person can Either use it with some kind of spoken output or somebody's low vision might see a bigger screen And so you can get bigger monitors or you can use magnifiers. There's some applications that will magnify the type You might even seen them or on some desktops. You can Bump the font size of however big you want and then as far as input is concerned the things we really want to be To be able to do accurately is that's be able to provide a method of input that you can use so for us was most likely a keyboard like Text text input or even selecting selecting Icons, you know the the pick list or whatever The one thing that does not work. Well The one thing that does not work well for Blank people using it is a Mouse and that's something I would discourage the most so many application developers will develop stuff for websites Where you pretty much have to use a mouse in order to work the thing and that's probably one thing that really messes us up And so the things I will demonstrate today really Use keyboard as input and they and for me they provide spoken output. I don't have any low vision aids up here I don't I don't have low vision myself, but there are products that do that There's three systems that I am familiar with and will discuss in order Probably in chronological order in which they came into existence and the first being Emax beak Are most of you familiar with Emax in here? Yeah, I'm glad there's some people still using it. I really wondered You know now Emax beak was developed. There's a fellow named TV Raman was a blind computer scientist in at Cornell University and he developed a Thing with Emax where he would modify each of the applications, you know He had the various extensions that run in Emax the various modes And he modified them to push spoken output for various relevant things so like you I was trying to see with my list here of the variable nodes that we do Sorry, there's very less by his answer junk in my heading notes. It's messing me up Oh, that's kind of slowing me down unfortunately And I guess what I'll do is I'll demonstrate some things in Emax and that's where I was setting up when I first came in here So hopefully this will be close enough of that speaker. That's still audible enough for you Now when I'm doing that right now I'm just in that scratch buffer so I could even type some stuff in here Just to start with like editing a file so if I You know I'm just typing here. I have a set up where it speaks each word I type so like this type we are Now I can just press up there on here that line of text And I can use the regular Emax keys you know the Holding down the alt key or the meta key and then pressing f for going forward or I go back Now the other I want to show you one thing we do here That's what's beginning of the line, but I'll go down here. I'll type in. I'll indent a little bit Now when I press up arrow to hear this line You'll notice something here. It'll say something in front of it. Okay. I was because of capital error I was supposed to tell me he's indented Okay, now I'll just read the line somebody's didn't indent for me. Okay, so I mean then it'll tell me how much is indented by See how that works Now Primarily what I could show you here There are some extra aspects, but I would have to tune up Emax speak some more to do it'll do syntax highlighting I'll use funny voice sounds difference in voices to try to show you what's in quotes and all At one point I finally suspended using that because it was too sing-songy for me And I got to turn it back on so it did in order demo it and so I didn't make that today But I think another thing I'd like to show you the diarid now remember that you know, that's the directory viewer in Emax, right? So for me, I can do control X followed by D Okay, and then if I just hit enter for that current direct my home directory Now when you press down the arrow key if I was just using a conventional screen reader to read this whole Line, I mean it would read the dash dash dash. Well, in fact, if I do it here I'll just speak up and do this other it would be something like There's too much stuff kind of hard to understand So if I go down arrow It just gives you the file name. It doesn't read all the sorry that long file names often listen to but in our ways and Unfortunately good enough homework to review but our commands we can use to go back and tell me what the Date this file was written without having to monkey around with it Now I could use I can cheat and use like my screen reader speak up I'll show you a little later. I could go back like this and That's the size of the file and so that's And I can spell letter by letter so February 7 But the the one thing and I like diarid in Emax's it's it's ability to Bash under log. I don't want to erase that file This is not bash RC and now that's a directory. I think I see so Now it goes a higher pitch like that that's because it's capital letters and that's a directory I can Make some audio icon to use that means it opened a folder. So now I'm in here Well, I can close that down and Just close that up. So part of those is using the normal commands you would use in diarid but with the Emax speak they've customized it enough to where it'll it'll Speak only the things that are relevant at the time And there are other hotkeys that I could use that would speak specific parts of a file or Let's see now I can Think some files I can erase I Know what I'll do. I'll just find something here in that bits folder I can tell you a slight deep parts are from the Emax remote I just want to create a couple files and demonstrate deleting them Okay, so I'll just create some like See Okay, back to you Mac sorry a little side shoulder, but now if I go on to this bits directory again Well, if I find those test folders I Got to No I created those files Okay, that's not I don't like when demos don't go well for Oh, I have to do that oh It renamed on discs I gotta learn more about how to do direct it because I forgot if you haven't refreshed the directory and I'll never mind that then I gotta move on. I also want to keep this from Dead No, this is where if I had enhanced voicing on it I would do a little more with the calendar but see now here if you were just using a conventional screen reader to screen It would be really hard to navigate calendar. I can use the arrow keys and move around So I'm just pressing arrow left arrow They go up by the week and they've you know the dire. I mean the usual calendar commands you can move around to the other Weeks you know months of the year and stuff But one of the favorites that I think has been worded nice and it works Well as let's say I want to go to a date later in the year So if I want to go to let's say July 26th, I can go You know GD say it's got the right year. So I'll just hit enter on it It took me right there, and there's more I can do with calendar in fact if I And I'm gonna go back to today's date Took right back today, and if I mark something in this entry, I should have a That's the D. Okay, and it puts it in another window. So if I Know See I put that in as an diary entry for today That's how we can do that Additional things I might say about Emacs speak just as other There are other applications as you know very many I don't have them currently running here on this machine, but I've you have used before VM you know for mail Dire it I mean I mean Gunos GNUS It's a news reader. I like almost liked it better for email and and again those are very well designed for Speech and what what we call them sometimes is when this individual when he develops these enabled apps you call them speech enabling So they take the Let's say the VM app for a mailer. He'll say Emacs speak dash VM and then I forget exactly how it's done But if you launch VM, I think it looks first for in your emacs dash or emacs speak dash VM And so it launches the speech enabled app and I think what it might do rather than Go right into the next little deal is maybe to see if anybody have any questions about emacs and how that Or this version emacs speak and how that might work any questions about it Yeah, he's still it's pretty much a one-man operation. But yeah, he's he's still add stuff He's got and there's a lot of things I haven't messed with yet really because I've been I use different platforms in terms of doing doing things on the Mac or whatever in iOS and all that the He's been enabling a bunch of stuff to deal with Like with Google the Google framework and all and so When I'm anxious eventually do see about I think he's got some Google Docs integration Which would be really interesting to try there in emacs and there's a way you can integrate Google calendar with this emacs calendar I tried it several years ago and I ran into a bunch of performance problems and gave up but That might even work better today on to try it again So I've tended to use emacs for specific things mainly editing I'm probably not taking advantage as much advantage of emacs speak as one can and some people practically live by it And you that's their only solution. I I just find I tend to use different solutions for different things and so I I may not utilize some of them fully. I'm sorry. What I have. Yeah, because I it does really well Especially like with the indentation. I should probably pull up a Some pearl or something somewhere here, you know, here's the indentation of the pearl code like when you went down through the if statements I have something that might help them Oh There's my director again. I was just doing controller I don't jump into the buffer is you know how it started speaking each one so you knew what's buffer you're in And I just left arrow once to get out of that selection that search highlight Okay, there's a podcatcher thing I worked on a long time ago me I'll just view the view the file Type C hyphen age for help common age for commands comma cube pound or 55 hyphen pound So the pound one thing pound of course that's the comment field so I'm just skipping passage the internet of these comments. I want to get to So you know these aren't indented yet And if I move down faster it interrupts. That's why I heard someone skipping because I was interrupting I'm just trying to get through this a little quicker Variables Okay, so now we got left brace so I know the next stuff should be intended You can see all the punctuation being spoken there that probably dragged you and you know And that's where sometimes I prefer using a braille display with some of that stuff because then I don't have to listen through it Or I speed that up. Anyway Subscription Yeah, they intended more So, yeah, I can do programming in this and then of course, uh, you know when you say but I go to another console or whatever Either run it or do whatever Yeah, that feature is available and I'm Sorry that I haven't I didn't have a chance this weekend. I was trying to Prepare some of this I didn't get chance to figure out how to remember to re-enable that because that's where it would change voice pitches and do things If for example, if you had stuff inside of quotes and everything, you know Equal system that that you know like oh, please I I got to where I couldn't stand it So I turned it off But I know that highlighting is handy and they try this best and I think it depends on the synthesizer that you use I'm using something called e-speak Has kind of a robotic sound to it. I know some of the people who affect tv-rom and I think he uses An older outdated version of a synthesizer that I think may work better with that syntax highlighting But I don't like installing old 32 bit code that's unsupported. So I don't use it, but There is some audio version audio ability to do that and certain audio sounds it'll be made like if there was And I'm sorry that can't demonstrate that very well right now, but Well, it's a whole different world. I mean jaws is a windows screen reader. So you're working in windows And it's basically a screener. I would be more apt to compare it with something we'll talk about later I hope I still have time is orca Which is a windows. It's a screen reader that Well, I know I'll just cheat here I want to see what time it was and I was going to look at my phone and the thing timed out There are a couple of things I can do here to get on but I see we're running out of time According to that is 210 or 215 Well, let's see. I mean if you're going to the hour and somebody using this room at 230 Yeah, so I gotta Yeah, that's why I gotta I gotta move So so e-max is interesting and there are different things to show there and I think it was I had a little more difficult time Configuring things and getting it going and apologize The next thing that occurred I want to move on to speak up then this is a kernel patch that was made uh a fellow named Kirk riser up in Is it University of Toronto or London, Ontario or somewhere? Developed uh originally and then I think there's a team of people that worked with him on it They'll speak up and it's basically Patched to the kernel that would intercept any output that would be sent to the screen and have it spoken And so that's what I was using a little bit over here in these consoles Plus it has a review function and everything but it's a kernel patch. It is now in the staging kernels I think it's still staging so it's available in the mainstream kernel and so if you get a like a Arch Linux disk or Ubuntu or something if they haven't Modified the kernel any then the speak up is there and just got to load the right modules for it So what I'll do there now and I'm here now So what I'm going to demonstrate is some simple things to start with where all does enter a command and it'll speak the output Okay, I'm going to go back to this other Oh, well, I could go here So if I wanted to list this directory, of course, it would be like this Now if that's too fast, I can slow it down some Is that fast enough or is that slow enough for people or are they Now I'm going to go on and review that what I just heard because all that was a bunch of you know It was a directory listening a long listening So I can use arrow keys to review this part of the screen It's another aspect I'll demonstrate is the reviewing of it So I can hold down the caps lock key the insert key and I can go up a line Or if I want to hear just hear the file names, I just go to the right end of the line space test two Okay, there's that test two file I was trying to find and see if I go up arrow like You know another line or in this review file I'm just reviewing and I understand that doesn't show any kind of visual cursor when I do this So I just press that you know a key here to speak the current word I'm under and that's why I interrupted the others Otherwise you could hear this You see so now I can go on up the The list there and I won't Now if I want to delete test one Of course, you know when you lean up so you won't get any kind of well I can do it with it with and without a prompt if I read let's say I delete test one. I just do rm See no prompt or no warning because I didn't put any parameters on now if I do rm Uh test two Is it prompting you and you either heard the question? I don't have to repeat it or at least I understood it Did anybody understand that prompt okay? And I'll just type you know why why Okay, those files are gone and I'm going to change the directory So it speaks to read the prompt to you Now there's some things where we can do highlight uh some Like highlight track and that's what I was starting to do earlier when I was messing with the Also mixer, so if I go don't do that as root, but if I go into also mixer I'll just interrupt speech. I just quieted it. Let's see. I think I put highlight tracking on No That's not Okay, it's a pretty tattery screen, but if I go over here to There highlight tracking I should have Oh Rated That's not a very good example, I thought that would work the one that does was with that Wi-Fi I'll do highlight tracking again What happened here Now I can also go up and just review that list to see if it populated sometimes I don't think it populates Let me just review that I got stuff there It must be like since I'm connected to my iPhone I'm only seeing one entry there. It's not a very good demo of it. Well Well, anyway, this shows I'm connected by iPhone, but it didn't Well, that's yeah, it's highlight tracking. I'm trying to think what else I should demonstrate and speak up The thing was speak up There's about as close as things you might when you're asking about jaws or something Although I don't consider the text console. I think more of this is like the dust screen readers. We had of old like Vocalize or uh, I think jaws had a Think to add a version for DOS also The jaws is well known for those that aren't maybe totally from our screen readers Freedom scientific has done gone out of their way to make make them the biggest Hitter in the game and I don't necessarily think they're the best screen reader, but they seem to Twist a lot of market share and you know Does anyone have any questions about speak up? It's a little more I think just straightforward and it displays What's on the kernel and you can have some input for reviewing the only thing I might comment on that's that Uh Some people have been doing a lot of debate lately about any further development speak up because frankly a lot hasn't been going on but If you want to do more advanced things like Selected parts of the screen to be spoken and this kind of thing Might be a lot easier to write a user space screen reader or user space screen reader running it as an application and foreground instead of a kernel And so that that area has been discussed in there. I guess there's a couple screen readers out there They've been developed to run in the foreground like that I'm not sure how much Work is being done on them. I don't I've never tried them But that would probably give hands a little more uh Flexible output on the on the console for example Might there be any questions on this? If not, I'll move to the gnomes part. It's probably more interesting to some folks I guess hearing none I'm going to move on to the third one Okay, why don't I have any speech now? This is not what I wanted Is anything showing on the screen for you guys? Ever since they went to a gnomes shell, I think things are yeah, I have to get into one of these other I tend to like to go here I even customize or adjusted gnomes shell options so I could have a written old-fashioned best hop again now this is orca at the screen reader that was uh Originally, I'm sure where it's Exactly beginnings were but sun micro systems had an accessibility office and they were doing a lot of development after oracle bought Sun out then They canned most of the people who worked in the accessibility office there and so that Almost we were afraid it was going to wreck this project But uh, there's just another people that kind of took on the lead development in fact, uh This is jone marie diggs a woman that used to teach accessibility software at the carol institute blind in uh, boston Took upon herself learned python and I mean here's somebody that was a trainer or teacher before I don't think she ever programmed to my knowledge in her life and uh This started back in about Well shortly around the time of that acquisition. She might have been working a little bit with Willy walker before he left, but there's probably like 2009 maybe I'm trying to forget when oracle bought sun but From that point on she's taken on a lot of the the lead development of Orca and the changes and fixing bugs and things and has gotten far enough in the show the attestament of python I guess because Orca is written in python mostly and it She's actually figured out how to I mean Access all these low level exposures that from firefox for example I've had a lot of bugs in firefox that affect What is exposed to the screen reader and you know, she's actually been digging into this heavy metal stuff. That's pretty amazing I don't know. So anyway the background of it But right now i'm sitting at In a typical nautilus window or if you're on a mac, it would have been a finder window Now again, it's right now. I'm just basically using the arrow keys And this would be like if you were like somebody mentioned jaws earlier It would be like if you're in windows in the windows explorer and using the arrow keys to move around in uh You know using jaws. So if I Move down using down arrow here. I'll go through this What's the matter we're missing something? Oh, it's not at all Oh boy, I don't know how to do that I I used to be Now I don't have a shows on my laptop in front of me or not. I'm totally oblivious. Something wants to look Oh, wow, I'm sorry that That's all right. It's one of the things we should have set up ahead of time and sorry about that. Oh, well Okay, what did you do? I haven't done anything yet. Oh, oh, let me Yeah, I wonder that What Yeah, sometimes you get in there's one thing there's something called overview window Like I just shows up sometimes and and I lose speech sometimes in there and it's something I've not been able to This year's is an English. I'm not seeing a uh Thing to say mirror Wait, maybe arrange combined I thought I was gonna have to do something with that function f2 or something, but that's not Not wanting to uh Mirror Yeah, don't have to do something So you guys were able to see the console on enat but not the Okay, what do you do so I can know for future What do you do? Okay Okay, so let me go ahead and close this out of your way. Oh Okay, I'm gonna hey, well, yeah, thanks Well, thank you for pointing it out to me because I wouldn't uh Yeah, I wouldn't know either I'm gonna go into the orca settings because I can slow down speech and that'll be one of the things that I was trying to show is Dialogs so, you know, you know my windows dialogues and things So to Now this is I'll hopefully get to speech right away. You know, let's slow it down But you see right now we're in a tab. It's a tab one of eight and it's a screen reader preferences and And that's probably what I want It's either voice or speech. I think it's speech See if we're both radio button one or two Well, I have to go to voice Okay, these are nothing to a speech rate, let me go back Here we are Right now it's 80. I got 80. I think it's a range like 80 of zero to 100 or something Yeah, that's a little better in that now Okay So now if I go back here and I'm still in this dialogue so I'm just pressing tab so So far in these you don't have to do any like special keys or keystrokes like you did in emacs or wherever You know, I don't really have to do that much screen reviewing So you can hear all that So it tells you the status of the state of a checkbox Yep, I'm just going to close it. I don't need to go for all the other tabs and stuff in there Oh, I just show you that like here See tab two of eight because there's a tab control. It's like in windows. They would have called our tab control anyway It's configuring braille displays and stuff So these are different options for orca we're going to tell it how to pronounce stuff or to Use punctuation or hide punctuation whatever And that has to do with some colors. So if you go in there and turn certain things on and they'll speak and tell you what I think that's what it does in there I it again with speech sometimes it gets too verbose of it starts telling you the color of every little thing on there But you could turn it on if you're trying to Verify some stuff you're doing like in a document or something. Okay. What happened here now How can I tap? Oh, I don't key I'll suppress right key, you know it. I think if I press control tab, hold on So when I left it there with a lower speak trait, but sorry Didn't mean to do that Yeah, someone's files along I'm gonna see what the Director I could go into I'll use this file to open And I can interrupt speeches like the other because I still hear but it does describe the file on stuff to you so that Is Okay, that's an odf document or off open office document so I can show another app in here So I should be able to hit enter on this key in it on this file It should open open office for me or we rough as doc A writer I should say Taking its time though I've actually been having some problems with LibreOffice sometimes locking up when I've tried to open certain spreadsheets And I hope that's not happening with this writer doc Okay, it looks like we're good No What's going on here? See I'm just arrowing down this and It looks like it's fed up on me too. I guess man the rate must be set in per application I didn't think it was Let me slow speech down on that one if I can Yeah, it's there where it should be So why did it go For some reasons LibreOffice is making it go faster. I'm unless I've got a Thing set in there. Let's see. I can go into the application specific settings Just stuff like this that makes me lose a lot of time I just think I just insert control space Yeah I don't think they're here to do it by default I can arrow around in this thing too Kind of like the other editors and things Okay, I didn't do much in this document. I thought I had more stuff in it See and I can press control Q to get out of it You can see here the input we're using a lot of keystrokes. I don't use a mouse I don't use this touchpad on here ever And probably if I want to get into firefox because that's where I think probably more interesting with the web You know windows anyway, you're gonna But I'll and I have a shortcut key on my machino wants firefox I'm kpd document to mark 2010 three level one. Okay, there's no blog I have that I've done much with forever. I'm gonna I'm gonna go to a site that I'm familiar with I'll just go by hand So again, I haven't set to speak on words so soon they hit a character then it You know Don't want to use this because I want to demonstrate tables and how they've done they've done a pretty good job of some bus routes so I got to find uh The combo boxes to get to the facebook link. Oh the other thing now and I should explain a little bit if I can quickly You can use the arrow keys to move around the page and it will save. It's a link or not You'll see youtube and then link RSS link now these seem to be on one line one link per line or something See now like here it said submit query push button if I press tab That's a push button. But if I go back Okay, it's an entry and a focus mode that means I'm now in An edit field where I could type because before this Submit query push button browse mode. Okay. Now it says browse mode and here I can do things like The one letter navigation will jump you around the page. So if I want to go to a heading I can type the letter h So that's another heading And it gives you the heading level numbers on it because you know you can have up to six heading levels See you went to heading level three So I'm going to go back to this trip planner Level I hope I have time Oh run it over already somebody out there waiting to come in here. Oh really nobody's using this room there. Okay Good. Well, I'll take a little time unless you all want to do something else I want to try and show a table here. So let's almost see if I get there quickly enough Press entry from selected Destination leave combo box one or three arrivals are leaving date entry Arrivals are leaving time entry. So I'm just pressing tab here go things in there's combo boxes in the bush button Browse mode hash entry focus mode. Somebody's where I was able to just say go to the roots Rotating transit art series partnership with infodox link Http Oh, that's a lookup stop numbers I'm trying to remember how I got into those tables they make you want they make you want they want to make you use this The trip planner thing we had to put in everything and I just want to look up a bus table Alimetro On another I can jump from link to link by pressing k and shift k Way beyond anything I want so I can shift k Board of direct service changes online tools here in shop on 19th power radio Lateral panel image link new right kid panel image link rotating transit I'll click here if you do not know the full trip planner link google transit So I just don't from link to link to link you can also go to like combo box itself. I tap the letter c I believe Oh, maybe this is it let's see Push button Selected radio button next right link google transit link trip planner link Zero one combo box. Oh, it's time. I thought it was type Okay, I want focus mode so I can arrow down to this thing I thought I remembered how to do this get into those tables directly I have to find something else, but the thing we're doing tables what I wanted to demonstrate and I'm sorry I can't right now that wasting everybody's time Is that you then have arrow navigate you can use you hold down like the shift in the case of oracle You hold down the shift and alt keys and then you can use the arrow keys and you'll navigate around in a site of a table And you can hear the rows and columns and then if the headers are properly marked You'll even hear the heading of each column as you go by That's why I wanted to demonstrate that I'm not finding it very easy when I get there Tables no more tables. Okay, so now tables here time zero one combo box one zero zero combo box two or three combo box three or three Departing after selected rate. So you don't want to force you into entering times and dates and then they can tell you a root I didn't want that time zero one combo box one thousand zero zero combo box destination link combo box one of three That's what I was hoping for select root type It won't work. It's not working What's that? Yeah, I love that what Hans told me about that one. I use it. No, I've used this website and I Demonstrate I did this the other day and that's why it's making me so mad that I can't Huh, I don't know I'm thinking about that the thing was before I would say you could choose a Type like trains or trains or a bus or local buses and that's what I can't seem to find And once it did that and I don't think it was this was full trip planner, but so I was trying to not get into that trip planner thing I can't seem to find any other way to You do not know your stop right double angle bracket link that's a stop ID I don't want to get next right push button We'll slash leaving time entry focus mode Maybe that one. I don't know. That's too fast Finished loading valymetro trip plan No more combo boxes Newfound media center link employment link event calendar No more headings Yeah, I'll start to find it. Let's see newfound media center employment event calendar Mobile text only link valymetro phoenix public transportation zone link plan in your trip link trip planner next right link system map link root schedules and maps link Maybe that one. Yeah, please wait document frame finished loading valymetro bus route No boxes Twitter youtube link root schedules and maps heading to from the menu on the left to see schedules and maps for valymetro rail valymetro Link bus service local and express bus service neighborhood circulators and rural Tips about schedules heading level three Nope. Nope. Nope. No Purchase parallel route rapid service link express service local limited stop service link bus routes link Loading please wait Finished loading valymetro local bus routes about valymetro bus routes heading level one So you're now in type h It took me right to the buster cycle for all the other noise Select a route heading level two. Yeah Okay, I'm at a table. Okay, so I'm gonna go to 72 72 72 72 72 Link link, okay Now we can look at the limited bus service for sunday there because I'll probably look at today's thing. So once it loads the 75 72 PDF oh god, no I hope not No Link Okay, I want to view it not PDF Yeah, that looks what I want Now you'll notice across the top here and I'm using the table navigation keys So hold down the left and with orca anyway, hold down the shift and alt keys and then I use the arrow keys You're gonna keep hearing stop number so and so it's kind of annoying but that's part of the heading Rural and ray another reason I like to speed this stuff up Okay, that's near where my home is my permanent home anyway when I'm back home So let's say I'm at rural and southern I want to go down and I can read the times for that day or I think it's today's schedule And I'll just press down arrow So it tells you the row column numbers now if I just hear the time and I don't want to hear the row and column number I can just interrupt it Okay, 31 looks like a half hourly schedule on sunday. It's pretty remarkable I think for public transit these days on a sunday But let's say now I want to go up to the street then I can press right arrow up that from this time point See to Tempe transit center, of course, it's a temp, but that's because they don't know how to say tempi But then if I press right arrow, just keep hearing the times So I know that I'll get there and I know seven so, I mean it's a practical use of table navigation and I remember when the first got on the web using screen readers, especially like in windows and when they didn't have table navigation like this It would have been impossible to navigate one of these Because you need that to read line by line by line or link by link and you know So this is how tables navigate and it's the one thing I wanted to show you in you know Firefox Not enough really have time to go into like thunderbird. It's a male client be much similar kind of thing But I mean up and down a pink a pick list and open the messages you want to hear But Does anyone have any questions about like orca and gnome? I know I kind of glossed through this fairly quickly, but Right Basically, that's orca and what happens is firefox exposes Some of this is an amateur because I don't know exactly Firefox knows what tables and and this is why semantic markup is so important Because if somebody doesn't put tables in there if they just lay that stuff out in some way and you know physically made it Line up maybe by using the pre anchor or something on the pre tag, you know html This wouldn't work, but yeah, so orca is really providing the one letter navigation Some people call it quick nav quick navigation depends on whose your product you're using apple does it to with the voiceover and Inhabitant jobs and most of those have now some version you know variant of it that Pretty much worked the same way So I got tight I typed the letter t and I said take me to the nearest table Or the first table and I could press t again if there was a second table it would have gone to it But yeah, that's that's orca providing that One letter navigation of the objects that firefox has exposed through semantic markup to say Yeah, here's the headings and here's the buttons and Whatever, so it's important for the the browser has to expose that information or make it available in a So sort of object model, I guess, but Should I just say there's no there's no modification to firefox to make this To make it special for us. I mean, it's the mainstream version of firefox Is this is they've they've had to expose the right information to make sure that stuff is properly marked up I mean, amazingly enough with orca you can actually get into the like all clickables I don't have a website right handy. I can confirm most You know where you have those fake links you've probably seen them or you might not you might just click on them With a mouse and not think anything about it, but the screen reader will say it's clickable But it's not necessarily a link or a button You know, so it's a void control probably a javascript void controller or something and you you know the And so we can sometimes route mouse to it. Now, let's see if I can do that here. Sometimes this doesn't work because of the firefox bug Let's see on it 10th trance center 848 a.m. Road 12 column 6. It is one thing I can try and bring up real quick if this will work There is a bug in firefox in fact I complained about recently where sometimes you can't route the mouse to it But you can route the pointer to it if I use some keys. It's kind of like a review What we did in speak up I'm not in the right place for some reason didn't put it where I wanted but And there's not a clickable so I don't want to do anything here, but Oh, there is a push button there But now if I wanted I could just press the key and it would simulate a mouse movement So I'd be like pressing a left click with the mouse or touchpad or whatever Now in other cases I think there's parts of websites where that's supposed to work better and that's the one thing I have had We've had some trouble with and I was it was noted that it was a bug in Firefox that I think that is not the screen isn't scrolling for the internal buffer or whatever they're using And I'm sounding kind of wishy-washy there, but I don't exactly know Because you probably saw the screen as I was scrolling down it and saw those whole this route on tempi and everything, but For some reason routing the mouse pointer to it with these screen or with the orca commands in there Isn't wasn't putting in the right spot But when those do work you can click those clickables and you know, they're kind of a In fact, I don't know if we have any clickables on this site Okay, there's only one button on the page it said you know what said wrapping the top a minute, you know going back up to where the There's only one button on the page apparently So anything else on it? I know firefox is probably the most interesting part of this whole thing and you know And obviously depends on how people code a web page. How good this experience will be Any further questions on it? sorry, I've uh Been working on teaching myself python does reading some books on it and stuff because I'd like to learn it because I want To contribute to this project and that's one of the reasons one of the motives been and I've done with stuff with pearl before And python is interesting. So yeah, I'd like to I just haven't Got quite involved just like want to learn droopal too. So Between the day job and they come home and say okay an hour and I what do you what do you spend it? or whatever Funnest stuff to learn out there. That's for sure. I don't know. I think it depends on the environment you're editing and I mean as a day job person I've worked with cobalt, but I usually use a window screen reader and that sort of setup but And using a ISPF, you know on the mainframe a laugh But but here as long as you can code in text like You know pearl ruby, whatever. I don't I just don't know some of the language I know pearl and pearl and python have been learning and I did some stuff and see a long time ago. In fact, a long time ago. I actually wrote a What was that for for a DOS screen? I think it was for a DOS screen reader. I actually wrote a synthesizer driver for it was kind of fun But it was a long time ago But I mean any language that has you know meaningful text and if you use an editor like I like emacs for that sort of thing because of the indentation and And of course it does self-correcting almost like an idea where if you leave out a parenthesis, it'll tell you it's missing I should have demonstrated I should have demonstrated that You didn't think about that Yeah, that's what I mean to do. So I think I want to do that I will make to make some closing comments just saying that For some of the stuff to make this all happen to make this work as well as like what you're seeing today is And I touched on it already a little bit developers need to use standard controls Standard tools, you know standard widget libraries and things don't be acute with your custom widgets and whatever One of these graphical things will work pretty well just out of the box if you use standard stuff Same thing web design But I think you know this stuff's come a long ways and it has some bugs and different things but The progress has been made in the last say 10 or 15 years in these areas has really made a difference with accessibility of the linux platform and You know it rivals windows and mac or any of them Thank you for your time I'll shut this up Yeah, that yeah, that would be really good Well, it's like I've had a problem with the the app last night with southwest airlines where I was trying to Save a boarding pass Now they've improved the app to make some changes but yet when I got to the point where it's a save into Passbook and whatever all of a sudden Had these four links now and none of them worked And I was on the phone like several hours fighting trying to just try and get through to a human lesson say Well, how can I save this boarding pass so I can use it tonight when I go home? And uh, yeah, that was a circus that that used to work


What's up YouTube? Real is the game to here and it is Friday.  No hard feelings to bug bakers games, but I promise the in-game gameplay looks way better than the screen menu All right, so with that being said let's go ahead and jump straight into the game Oh, and here we are. Oh, it's gonna look we're back in Almore High School I think that's what the school is called that we do the move space jump and either in Iraq Okay, so there's a note here paper E Okay, so I feel like we're supposed to collect ten notes and we have one so far dude. This is reminding me of what's that? Baldi's basics Whatever happened to Baldi Disappeared faster than his hair on his head All right to grab paper number two. Oh nice. Okay, so so far so good. I'm not seeing any signs of a Scariness yet. Oh Yeah, what the heck is that? Darwin Yo, Darwin is like possessed or something. Oh man. All right. Let's get around the corner Hopefully he doesn't go through the walls Dude, what the heck happened to Darwin?  Okay, uh spam E Okay, we're busying on the floor. Oh, can we go upstairs? Okay, you cannot go upstairs great sleep tight. All right. That is totally not creepy man Okay, is there a paper in here? Oh note number three case of warm so far so. Oh, oh my god. Nope. There it is again Darwin. No. Oh, I Couldn't see anything on my screen. All right, so we back in the school, baby Let's get it this time. Let's not get near Darwin because he does tend to make your screen like super static And then you can't even tell what's going on All right, we got two so far. We did three. That's the best we did So let's try to pass three this time. Oh, yeah, we got to open this spam spam spam forever, bro Okay Okay, there was a note in here. So let's grab this one Okay, paper E Nice All right, so I wonder what went down in the school. I'll just smack me right in the bait Give me that. Okay paper number four Okay, we go to you right now. Oh, there it is. No, dude. Okay. No, I can't see it Dude every time he gets near you you don't know where to go. All right, all right. I'm tired of this I'm gonna collect. I'm man. I'm gonna beat the game now.  Okay, so it seems like he starts off over here Oh, I remember that episode. It's that episode where him and gumbar like fighting over the TV control something like that I can't quite remember everything, but I kind of remember some of it. Oh, man I got the memory of a goldfish. Okay. Oh, okay, number two. Oh Okay, some doors are closed you can't even go in them. Oh Elmore junior high. Oh, there you go. I was right about the school name. Okay paper number three Okay, this might have been the route to take it seems like we're actually getting a little further than we were earlier Man, okay, you can't go in there Dude, most of these doors are blocked out. Oh, look, there's a TV. Hello TV. What is that? Shapes oh, let's go to this go check out in the restroom. They're better not be a jumpscare in here. Oh nice Okay, so four out of ten. We got enough to four now. We have to beat four Okay, where's Darwin that I haven't seen that guy since we last seen him back there in the hallway. Oh I heard like static Okay. Oh, there it is. No No, come on. I mean Darwin. Come on Darwin Come on, brother. Okay, we have five out of ten Dude, we're gonna beat this man. I'm calling it right now. I already got this right. Okay. Didn't wow Okay, six out of ten Dude, we just need four more Come on. We can't oh nice Seven dude, we need three more papers And then we we get this W man Okay, I wait Did I get these already? Okay, no, I didn't oh my god. They just had to place this one all the way back here It's like they want us to get trapped All right eight out of ten dude. We need two more. Oh No, oh, you gotta be kidding me now. We're trapped in here dude. He can face through the desk That is not fair. Oh, no, you're right behind. No, I'm not even looking at him No, look away. Look away. Oh Great, he's right on this. We need two more. Come on. We can't lose right now We cannot lose right now. We're at the we're like literally there already Okay, where's the last papers? Oh My god, I can't find them. Oh Great, there's another one back here in the classroom We're gonna have to let Darwin come in here. No, we're gonna have to let Darwin come in here To try to run away.  I was staring away All right, you guys so we have nine out of ten and we are trapped in here with Darwin Dude, we barely got out of there. All right, so we just need one more paper and we are gone We are out of this Elmore junior high We're good. Okay. Where the heck can it be? Yeah, bro. Come on. It's gotta be somewhere around here. I know because Maybe I'm lockers because I did find one or two. Oh, there it is. Let's get it. Hey, we won Okay, you won now gun ball can live in peace. Oh Live a peaceful life. All right one gun by you owe me one, bro Because your brother was out there. He was possessed. He was demonized. I don't know what the heck was going on Right. So is that it? That is it.  All right, you guys well, that was pretty cool I feel like it could have been a little more scarier, you know I don't know maybe add more characters out there roaming around so it could be a little more tough Even though I did lose Like two or three times I got caught by a Darwin. Thank you guys for watching take care and I will see you guys in the next one