So my name's Ryan. I'm an associate software engineer at Red Hat. I work on a tool or on a team called Contra We're working to unify and streamline all of the product delivery across the company more specifically I work on a tool called Lynch pin, which is a provisioner that I'm going to be talking to you about today So how many of you have well first of all can I see a show of hands who has any experience with Ansible? Awesome, it's a good place to start So some of you may have worked on a project or may currently be working on a project that has some sort of Ansible script or Ansible playbook that looks like this that's made to deploy whatever you work on. It's like 900 lines of code It's really difficult to tell what's going on if you need to modify or update things And hopefully if you you know if you're deploying slightly different versions of it You use extra vars to parameterize it But if you're doing that a lot and you have a lot of different parameters you could change you end up with these really long commands That are kind of difficult to Difficult to remember whatever you want to modify something So we developed Lynch pin as a solution to that Lynch pins more or less a declarative wrapper around Ansible So instead of telling Ansible how you want things to be done You tell Lynch pin what you want and it Lynch pin figures out how to do it It's highly extensible through the use of something called hooks and it has a pretty simple API and CLI which you can see below here So this is just a quick overview of the architecture of Lynch pin before we get into the weeds I know there's a lot going on everything in yellow here is user inputs So there's topology layout and hooks which we'll get into what each of those do Those are inputted to Lynch pin which then converts that into something that Ansible can understand Ansible goes provisions whatever cloud providers it needs to provision and then Lynch pin takes the data It gets back from those clouds and it sends them to a few different outputs We won't talk too much about those but all you need to know for now is that the run DB is what allows Lynch pin to? Store data from every single time you've run Lynch pin It's what allows you to say run Lynch pin up twice in a row and tear down the stuff You provision the first in the first run and the inventory is a user It kind of is a is the type of output that the user can customize based on the layout So Lynch pin workspaces at its core is made up of something called a pin file Which describes all the inputs and outputs you need for provisioning A pin file is a bunch of targets, which is a target is just something you're going to provision As a single unit you're never going to break down a target into things you might want to provision one at a time And each target can contain a topology a layout and hooks So the topology is technically all you need to provision something it describes your desired state Now so here we've got a topology that provisioned some open stack resources Resource groups in Lynch pin describe a set of resources you want to provision to a single provider So here we're just provisioning open stack resources, but if we wanted to provision something to AWS as well We could do that just in a different resource group And within a resource group you have resource definitions, which are you know everything you want to provision We have a key pair here and for open stack server instances If we wanted to provisioned another open stack server with slightly different parameters We would do that as another resource definition You could do an open stack network for example is another resource definition And then we get to the layout so the layout There are dependencies between them What do you so Yes, so the resource definitions are provisioned by default in order and so in this example I actually provisioned a key pair and then I use that key pair as the as the key pair for those servers You can provision asynchronously in which case you of course lose those guarantees, but by default it's done synchronously So moving on to the layout the layout is how you define user outputs The layouts are used to generate an inventory file, which is something like what you'll see on the right After provisioning Lynchman gets a list of all of the hosts that are provisioned So this doesn't include networks or low balances or anything like that It's open stack compute instances EC2 instances, etc And it goes through this list of hosts and it assigns it to the relevant host groups So for example here, we'll get a list of four hosts, which we saw in the topology earlier It'll pop the first one off and say that's the master So I need to assign it to the workers and the masters host group pop the next two off and assign it to the workers host Group and finally pop the last one off and assign it to the database in addition to listing each host in this group Variables which are defined in the vars section can be associated with each So here we just have the host name equals Dunder IP variable Dunder IP is a built-in It's just the default host name for whatever host you're using but any data that That Lynchman gets back from a cloud provider you can put in your vars so that can be networks That can be zones and open stack Instead of a public IP before address for example, you could do a private IPv4 address and This this data, you know by default isn't a human readable format like this But you can also format it as Jason if you want it to be parsed by parsed by a script or something like that And finally we get to hooks so hooks are what allows Lynchman to be extensible It allows you to define custom actions that go beyond just the basic provisioning You can write them in a whole bunch of languages and one thing that makes them so Powerful is that they can communicate with one another as well as communicate with Lynchman itself And with the data that Lynchman gets back from these cloud providers So just as an example here, there are four hooks So our first hook here, which would run before you provision something.  You only want to create the pool if it doesn't already exist And then you only want to destroy the FIP pool at the end if you want if you had to create it in the first place This is the where hook communication comes into play that first hook can save data to the run debut and Lynchman that says Yes, I actually had to create this FIP pool or no I didn't and the post destroy hook can take action based on that The last thing I want to point out is this context variable The context determines whether a hook is run on the machine on which Lynchman is running or on the provision resources So in this Priya hook context is false It'll run locally or in the post-up hook when where you're installing the dependencies context is true and it'll run remotely So now that we've kind of seen how all these components work. Let's let's put them together I got a couple demos for you There's one that's a little bit easier a little bit less flashy and the second one I actually can't do because we're not on the VPN unfortunately So I'll go through and explain to you how it would have worked so you can see kind of a complex deployment via lynchpin So let's say I just want to deploy a basic livered instance on lynchpin I can do that. I can run lynchpin in it And say liver so this is going to pull down actually a director we have on the lynchpin repository With a number of resources used to provision lynchman So we have all sorts of examples here, but I don't actually need any of that.  I only need a topology really So in resource groups, I'm just going to have one because I'm only provisioning livered instances. So I'm going to name it liver demo And the type like I said will be livered And then I got my resource definitions. So let's name it demo node Role will be livered node And then there's there are some fields in here that are That are required and some that aren't I'm sure you saw all the all the fields in that really big pin file So not all of those are required, but let's see what is required. I believe the URI is required. So that's I know It's kind of hard to do 10 lines or less when you when you have seven lines of bootstrapping code So we'll pretend that doesn't count Yeah, I was a little ambitious with my title should have gone with seven lines, but A Role I of course need an image. I didn't bother memorizing this image name. We'll be honest. I'm just going to copy it Or an image source. I Know I need memory So I'll set that to 2048 megabytes And I want to make sure this is valid before I run it. I want to make sure I got all my syntax correct So I'll run linchman validate And Try to validate that target and let's see what happened. Oh, I feel topology names required. That's a that's a pretty basic one Oh, and I know what else I forgot Yeah, but I wasn't gonna start off with an athlete apology Exactly Yeah, and it'll tell you if you misspelled something for example the only one where it's a little bit finicky is the role if you leave out role Sometimes you'll get an error But yeah, it's I mean it's pretty reliable. The other thing I forgot is the It is the VCB use I think and I knew one of those but things like count like you could provision two of these and it'll Default to one so not all the fields are required by net by default. I think it uses the default network So I got a success here The topology is valid so I can run linchpin dash BV uses the same verbosity flags as Ansible So that'll look familiar to you guys up And if I had multiple targets in this pen file, and I just want to run one I can provide that at the end of the command line And we'll gather facts any facts we need will oh Yeah, I forgot I'm not part of the liver group so it'll run any My This is a run any bootstrapping stuff we need it'll download the image for us it'll provision our node Start our VM if we define networks, it'll make sure they're there I don't know why it's waiting for it to shut down But you get the idea Takes a minute or so you know if you're familiar with Ansible This is all this is all pretty standard the The big advantage of this is the abstraction that with that just short chunk of code You can get this provision and I can do so to a pseudo version list all and it'll And you'll see the demo node is yours running there Yes, yeah, I think if you change the your idle you can use a remote Libbird instance So and then of course I will make you sit through watching this, but tear down is pretty easy as well So let's move on to something cooler. This is supposed to be my flashy demo. I was going to provision a Compute node on open stack. I was going to deploy open shift to that node And then deploy an application to open shift and show that it's running But like I said, I can't access the Red Hat VPN right now and so I can't deploy it But I can work I can step you through through, you know, all the components to see how it would work. What? Yeah Okay, I'll keep that in mind for the future, but I didn't I had someone else that suggests I set up tethering on my phone I couldn't get it working. So I would have liked to record the demo, but I just got it working Last night of we're being honest But it's working You'll have to trust me on that Part of this is actually in our examples if you go to our github repository There's an open shift on open stack example and an open shift on beaker example that you can take a look at So this pin file is actually It looks a lot simpler because we separated out the topology in the layout Lynch pin will look for the topology and layout in the same directory as the pin file in these topologies and layouts directories so I Got a topology open shift on open stack. We actually split things into two resource groups here because well my lynchman.com has a synchronous provisioning set to true and I wanted to make sure that the That the what's it called the OS server instance is provisioned last So the first resource group provisions a network and a security group I'm not gonna go too much in the details of that but that's just you know This is all the rules that open shift needs in order to be able to run correctly and the second one Creates a creates a pretty large Compute instance for open shift to run on top of and of course I pass at the cloud config So I can SSH in and lynchpin can run those hooks And this credentials section at the bottom which you didn't see in Libvert Allows you to pass the credentials file in the case of open stack It can also read environment variables. That's typically what I do there But something like AWS doesn't allow you to do that. So you can pass a credentials file there And moving on to the layouts because we've seen something like that before The only thing that's really different here is this far section in the host groups So this will set environment variables on the host themselves And open shift needs some of these environment variables. So, you know open shift public host name and things like that allow open shift to set up routing Ansible SSH users that Ansible knows how to log in things like that Open shift release so that open shift knows what we're released to set up If you notice, there's a ginger template here on line 26 You probably can't read that when I do that, but there's a ginger template here. So lynchpin does support templating in fact if you When you're when you're pulling variables in for the layouts for that var section from from the data that AWS and open stack send back You can access that via ginger templates And you can also Know which Can I get to that later because I want to I want to stay on track here. So Now I lost my trip. Oh, yeah, you can also send template data to lynchpin so if I were to Go to my topology here kind of jumping around. I'm sorry. I could instead of doing m1.large I could do flavor here And when I ran lynchpin up I could send in template data Flavor And one large and that would have the same effect. This won't run because it'll Oh, yeah, sorry, it should be lynchpin template data up. This won't run correct correctly because it's a Because of the VPN but you get the idea But lastly, I wanted to focus on the hooks here So we have four hooks here once again kind of mixing things like the context and all that So the first hook installs an RPM repository. That's just the open shift origin RPM through sent OS The second playbook We actually cloned the the open shift ansible repository from github and use those ansible playbooks for hooks So if you have existing Infrastructure that you use to use after you provision to do bootstrapping you can just plug that right into lynchpin Instead of using a hook to pull it down every sign every single time we run it We had a make file that we we used to pull and I did that before the demo But yes, that's within the open shift ansible repository. We just set up some prerequisites and deploy the cluster Let the experts and deploying open shift do that for us And the last thing we do on the local machine if you know context is false is Login to to open shift so that you can you can run OSC commands in that That's a Python script that I just wrote Wrote myself and then finally we had a topology for rocket chat For deploying that on on open shift You go to the rocket chat deposit Topology the resource definitions as you can see are exactly what you'd see in like an s2i image It's just you know this basic YAML You know a lot of a lot of code. There's like 600 lines here But you know, it's all pretty standard and that will that is the equivalent of running OC apply and OC new app on these resources See, I'm sorry. You couldn't see that running But yeah, I hope you you get the idea you can kind of see the power that lynchpin provides So moving back there's one more thing which I want to talk about and that's the API So lynchpin can be used programmatically The the API you see here is our older API that we're currently phasing out as you can see It's there's a lot of kind of bootstrapping doing it yourself But you you know you set up your workspace You validate you can run lynchpin up with the provisioner.do action. You could also run lynchpin destroy with that And then if you'd like you can get the run data from the run DB after provisioning and generate a layout from that The planned API which we currently have a beta version out of now is quite a bit simpler So by default you can use the workspace in the same way where you provide a file path But here you just have to run workspace dot-up and it'll provision all of that for you You can also generate pin files as a deck if you'd like we actually work with a tool called carbon, which is Something it's an it's an integration testing tool that one of the QE teams is working on and they generate Generate pin files programmatically for customer scenarios So they can do that as a dict instead of having to create a file on the disk every single time they want to They want to generate a new a new pin file So now do you have any questions? And actually Sorry, we want to get you on the mic so that we can Just So having had to do this for years and years and nice to see how you ended up there And I really like the elegance of what you did I'm just trying to figure out how I would use this on a day-to-day basis So when you ran the linchpin command it seemed to know the context is that just based on like Files inside the present working directory kind of like doing a Git command and looks for a did dot get subdirector something that or how does it know like which Cluster you're working with right you want to be able to work with multiple resources or resource things How do you know which one? So I'm actually gonna go into a slightly different command for a second called linchpin fetch So linchpin fetch allows you to basically do a get pull of a repository actually a pull of a of a Subdirector within a repository that contains a linchpin workspace to make it easy to share provisioning tools between You know between different people linchpin init Basically wraps linchpin fetch if you run linchpin init by default it creates a folder And pulls the the dummy workspace examples we have within linchpin So we have an examples directory in our repository and it'll pull that dummy is just a provider We made up that that mocks provisioning so we can test some of the other features we have within linchpin But you if you provide another provider name or another example name that we have it'll pull that workspace instead of the Instead of the dummy workspace Does it do get locally when I do this the linchpin in it is a creating a local get repo for that It's not creating a get repo now. Okay, so if I want to do get ops and all that I just do that externally to this and yeah, it's just a two-step process Yes, because you might want to have a linchpin workspace within an existing repository, so Okay, and You you showed Livevert open stack and you mentioned AWS What what does linchpin support as far as like virtualization technologies? Virtualization, I believe we support live vert over and VMWare right now and VMWare meaning vSphere or ESX direct. I Will have to get back. Okay. Thanks So with the hooks Maybe I missed it, but where you have the hooks and you have like the playbook specified Where How does it know where to look for those like game files of those local in the workspace or those pulled down from like though You said the open shift ansible. Yes, so they're local in the workspace I didn't I did have the the tree here, but I didn't mention it. So within the workspace. There's a hooks directory and so linchpin will search for the hooks in the hooks directory at a path of the Hooks slash the type in this case. We have ansible and then the name of the hook So hook slash ansible slash create FIP pool is here In the other example, I had the OC log in would be searched for and hook slash python slash OC log in So kind of a big picture question, but like what exactly is provisioning and why would you use linchpin with software like open shift or ansible? so provisioning is How do I define provisioning? It's provisioning is I guess creating resources to use for For any sort of like computation or networking and in the case of like virtualization, you're kind of reserving resources But you're also defining resources so that is so that they can be managed something like open stack and you know Keep track of say say or actually I'll use open shift and more familiar with it open shift can for example create track of pods So if you provision pods to open shift Open shift can make sure they're running and if they go down it can reprovision them so to the advantage so Traditionally way back when provisioning was largely done by hand you wanted a VM You had to go and you know run a command line or run your own script to create this VM And then tools like terraform and ansible started to to be built to automate that But they're largely procedural So you tell it the exact steps that you want to take and it's hard to parameterize them and it's hard to modify them And and it's hard to create them programmatically. It's hard to tell get a computer to figure out how to get from point A to point B So the advantage of something like linchpin that's very very focused on one thing ansible can also do a lot more than just provisioning So linchpin is very focused on one thing. So it makes it very streamlined to provision things it makes it easy to figure out how to do it programmatically because it You know pieces of software only has to figure out what it wants And it's easier to read and modify Hi, so this looks awesome first, so thank you Would I be wrong to say that it it feels and sounds very similar to what terraforms is doing And is this like intentionally being created as an alternative to that so that we have like an ansible native Version so You're right. It does seem very similar to what terraform is doing. I know terraform actually you're right I think terraform is also declarative. I don't know What the trade-off is between terraform and ansible or between terraform and linchpin. I'm not just not that familiar with it So yeah, I'm sorry. I don't I can't really answer that but I Can get back to you if you want afterwards if you give me your contact info. Yeah, I've got a ton more questions So I'll follow up with you. Yeah, absolutely Hey, thanks Ryan, that was a great talk So one of the things I that I'm really interested in here is the ability I'm gonna butcher the jargon and linchpin But the ability to pass variables from like one stage to the next or one task to the next you're gonna talking about that And and I'm guessing that this can wrap the ansible k8 module pretty easily To deploy things into kubernetes or whatever has anybody given thought to doing like a linchpin operator or something like that And the same vein is like the ansible operator. Yeah, so we've talked about it. I Mean I think the reason we haven't done it yet is just because you know, there's more demand from customers for other things But yeah, it's definitely something that's come up It's You know, if you have a linchpin operator I believe operators are pods so they're running all the time And so that would sort of require like a linchpin process that stays running which right now linchpin is kind of a one-off deployment So we'd have to look into if you if we'd be building a pod that You know triggers linchpin when it's run or if there's like a linchpin data that Damon, excuse me that actively stores data And manages these resources All right, any other questions So you said that linchpin is aligned with like ansible as a wrapper How is the versioning so when like you put out new versions of linchpin? How does it align with the versions of Ansible? It's not Yeah, so right now We we don't really work with the ansible team much So so we don't align the versions linchpin is compatible with multiple different versions of Ansible We try to be backwards compatible with whatever current version of Ansible is as well as you know anything older I think we're technically backwards compatible back to like 2.4 right now, but Is that everything any other questions


Happy Sabbath, dear viewer, and good evening, good morning, good afternoon, wherever you're watching from, we come to you from Central Church here in Nairobi, and I'm Pastor Steven Tirop. This time, I want to request to you as we pray on this Sabbath during the season of 40 days of prayer, and my text today is from the Book of Luke 11 and verse 1, but I am having emphasis from verse 10 through verse 13. This is the context is where Jesus had been praying a whole night, and when his disciples realized and observed how Jesus interacted, conversed, and prayed, they also asked Jesus to teach them how to pray. And that is where Jesus takes them through the Lord's prayer, our Father who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name, thy kingdom come, thy will be done, and so forth. And then at the end he says, for thine is the kingdom, the power, and the glory forever and ever. And so teaching them how to pray, Jesus moved from that and asked that when you pray, you must be persistent for who has a friend and he has a need. And then when a visitor comes, even if it is in the middle of the night and knowing that the friend have some food left in his house, will he not get up and go and knock and ask? And even if the friend seems to be sleeping, he would continue to knock. And that is where now we have this text which the Holy Spirit would like us to have today. In verse 11 it says, what father among you, if his son asks for bread, will give him a stone? Or if he asks for a fish, will instead of a fish give him a serpent? Or if he asks for an egg, will give him a scorpion? If you then, who are evil, know how to give good gifts to your children. How much more will the heavenly father give the Holy Spirit to those who ask him? My friend, my dear viewer, we are in the season of prayer. We have seen what the Word of God can do in our life. We have seen what righteousness means for us. We have worked together to see how the Holy Spirit can work miracles overruling our lives. Filling us with the divine nature, imparting the very fruit of the Holy Spirit in our life. And with this desire is indeed time for us. Just as Jesus challenged his disciples that they do not only pray for their daily bread, but above these physical and our raw needs here on earth, that they remember to ask the Father for the Holy Spirit. And so he challenged us with this parable, this story about a friend knocking in the friend's door until he gets bread. But the visitor was come or a father who her son has asked. And so he is saying our heavenly father is ready to give us the Holy Spirit when we ask. Friend, with these motivations that Jesus gave, my heart is drawn to ask for more feeling of the Holy Spirit. I request you to consider making this a priority prayer item in your life. Because without the Holy Spirit our mission, all the activities we engage in, in the name of serving God may not be done to the expectation of heaven. And when we ask for the Holy Spirit to come in, he will overrule, he will transform our ministries, he will bless our lives, he will feel us with the wisdom and the fruit of the Holy Spirit. Preparing us to serve here on earth and to be invited in the glories that awaits the faithful. So that like we read in the book of Matthew says I was thirsty, I was naked, I was in hospital and you visited me. And the saying may ask when did we do this because we are not doing the things we are doing when we are filled with the Holy Spirit for our own good. And so I ask you that we may ask and pray and ask the Holy Spirit above all else this sabat. I invite you brother and sister, my friend, wherever you are, that we may join in prayer items that we have above all for the infilling of the Holy Spirit for being ready to be used in the ministry. And praying that the Lord may transform and use as many as are ready in reaching the ends of this war. May we be ready. Invite you to pray with me. Let's pray. Kind and loving father. Thank you for this sabat. We thank you for your masses and goodness. We thank you for the 40 days and the initiative as you move the leadership of the church that we in the whole world will be engaged in prayer. As the period of session is ongoing, as leaders are chosen and as reports are received, as decisions are made, father, may you lead in every facet of your work here on earth. May the Holy Spirit take charge of the leaders. The new leaders who will be elected and those who will continue serving in the departments in the ministries that they have been serving. Use them all hard. And we in my view, I pray all hard that you may feel us with the Holy Spirit because you have challenged us that above our physical needs we may ask and seek first the kingdom and all these things shall be added unto us. Or even father may we experience your presence, the outpouring of the Holy Spirit upon every area of our life in our families, in our workplace, in our personal work with you. That father, you may come and say welcome and inherit the glory that was prepared from the foundation of the world for those who love the Lord. We love you Lord and we have asked you as our father to give us the Holy Spirit. Feel my viewer, feel my listener, feel my brother and sister, feel me and use me as your minister. Bless us here in Central Church, the entire membership, wherever they are and in all this time that is remaining for us to minister and to serve. May you use us mightily, accept our prayer and ministry O Lord. Even our worship and fellowship this Sabbath in Jesus' name we pray. Amen. Dear viewer, want to thank you for being part and listening and being an audience. Share this video. Ask friends to follow so that as we close as we come to the close of these 40 days we may benefit for being part and parcel of the whole world participating in prayer. For these 40 days I welcome you to join every prayer group wherever fellowship is. May you enjoy your Sabbath. God bless and be with you. We look forward to meeting and to interacting again in this channel. May God bless you in Jesus' name. Amen. Bye. Happy Sabbath.


Hi everyone, Joe for jaspyscasebrakes.com coming at you with jaspys six box off season quick hit baseball mix or random team break number one. A lot of nice stuff here, Gilded, Bowman Chrome, Five Star, etcetera, etcetera, a lot of great stuff here.  We just did it straight up, thank you very much. All 30 teams are in no combos, let's roll it and randomize this break, we'll randomize it, two and a three, five times for names and teams. Your names first, one, two, three, four and five, Steven down to James, two and a three, five times for the teams, one, two, three, four and five. We've got the Giants down to the Red Sox. Alright, Stephen Camel, you've got the Giants, Nancy with the Orioles, Ryan with the Angels, Davis with the Phillies, Michael with the Guardians, Carl with the Cardinals, Nancy with the White Sox, Kevin with the Rays, Carl with the Blue Jays, Stephen with the Rangers, Anhel with the Pirates, David with the Tigers, Carl with the Padres, Craig with the Rockies, Carl with the Reds, Brian with the Astros and Braves, Michael with the Brew Crew, Eduardo with the Mets, Brandon with the Cubs, Michael with the Diamondbacks, Carl with the Twins, Michael with the A's, David with the Nats, David H with the Nats, David M with the Royals, Ryan with the Mariners, Tristan with Uri Yankees, there you go, Tristan, Cameron with the Marlins, Michael with my Dodgers and James with the Bo Sox. We're going to alphabetize this by team. We're going to pause the video just for a little bit for the trade window and when we come back we'll see if there's any trades and then we'll have the break. So stick around, BRB. Alright, welcome back everybody. No deals are done. The trade window is closed. TWC, big thanks to everybody right here for getting in on the action. So there's the final printout you saw on the previous screen right there. Thank you very much everybody and away we go. Let's start with that Jumbo box first, Update Jumbo. Yeah, good win for the Raiders. You fell asleep early. Not the most exciting of games unless you are a fan of the Raiders. Let's show the packs right there. But yeah, now I'm not sure if the Raiders are going to be, you know, they did play two bad teams and the Giants and the Jets. So they're facing stiffer competition next week. But the team at the very least looks, these silver packs up there, there's the Gunner Henderson. Wow. That's to 10. Nice. That's probably your, wait, aren't they doing those announcements right now? Rookie of the Year announcements are today? I think he's supposed to be your, let's flip to MLB tonight. Corbin Carroll has won, NL Rookie of the Year, Gunner Henderson is your AL Rookie of the Year. Nice. He did win. So good time to get this box topper, 7 out of 10. Very nice. That's going to go to Nancy and the Orioles. There you go, Nancy. Good. Corbin Carroll got all 30 first place votes. Kodai Senga got 22 second place votes, James Altman got a handful of votes, Nolan Jones, Matt McClain also getting second and third place votes. Yeah, that's a pretty good turnaround for Gunner Henderson. If he was able to, if he was able to start slow and then end up with a six war, wins above replacement, that's pretty nice. That's for the Raiders, put a bow on that. It was pretty nice to see another W, they're going to face the Dolphins next week. That's going to be tough for them, but I don't know if the Raiders really had playoff aspirations this year anyway, I just wanted to see them just play some exciting football. If you lose, you lose, but at least the Raiders look pretty exciting. The play calling already looks a little more interesting. That's pretty good. We met Mark Blanson at the Fanatics Live event at USC not too long ago. Is that a little, hold on, let me just, looks a little, looks a little washed out here. What are we doing here? That's a little bit better. All right, let's breeze through these, got a Michael Miller and an Adam Duvall to 2023. Nice one. Red Sox, that'll be James, and then we've got a 1976 AL Moe's valuable player, Thurman Vincent, manufactured relic. Michael, what's going on? What's the schedule for tonight? I'm glad you asked, because you can access the schedule at any time, clicking that link right there. That'll take you to our Google spreadsheet, and you'll see the schedule. So far, it's just this baseball mixer. When do I think the hit parade football will be? No idea. That's up to you. And the rest of your fellow collectors in the chat, whenever you sell it out, we'll add it to the schedule and we'll do it. That's the beauty of these group breaks. You control the schedule, not me. But I would be pretty surprised if it doesn't happen at some point tonight. We've got Andrew Schaffin, gold that is not numbered. We've got a Bryce Harper, black gold. I think these are fairly common inserts, but they look really cool. Phillies, and all card ship, of course, we'll be getting all the, there's Seth Lugo, there is a Connor Wong to 2023, Red Sox, James, 260 out of 2023, see ya, bye. It's Corbin Carroll, your official NL rookie of the year. We've got a William Contreras to 300. So we'll go to the Brewers, that'll be for Michael. Here's rookie debut, Corbin Carroll, that's going to be all also for Michael. Jilo's taking the Broncos at plus eight. Yeah, you can vote in our poll, who wins the Monday night football game tonight. The Broncos are in Buffalo, and the Bills are minus eight. There's Michael Bush, and we've got, what a rush, Adley Rushman, 35 out of 4.99 Orioles. That'll be for Nancy, and nice, Zack Neato, rookie autograph. One of the top prospects for the Angels, made his debut this year. Ryan, with the Halos, nice. I have Buffalo minus seven and a half, but I'm not feeling good about it. Not feeling good about it. Jilo's taking them at plus eight, that's a better number. What are you, what is your play? I don't have it. No plays today. I took, I did a, one of those, uh, prize points, first time in a while. It's Taosca Hernandez, Juan Soto, another Corbin Carroll, that's all-star game Corbin Carroll, officially your NL rookie of the year. Yes, I should take the under, that's always, prime time under's are always a thing. The total's pretty high, surprisingly. Really? It's like 40 something, or 46 something. Broncos are coming off a bye, you think that helps them? Maybe, I don't know. Yeah. The bills just lost to, uh, the bills haven't been looking very good. That's what they want you to think, and when the bills are going to come out. And they're going to bang, they're going to buy 15, yeah. We're going to buy a couple touchdowns. Jaspy's country, let's run, Jaspy's country, let's break. You got Jonathan Hernandez, and we got Manny Machado. Major League material, piece of the lumber. That's going to go to San Diego, Carl, with the Padres. Got to add the Rushman rookie, Black Gold. Justin Steele might get some Saiyan votes. They're a really nice season. Got a nice Bobby Miller rookie debut, got a couple of pirates here to 2023. There's your presumptive AL MVP, Shoyo Tani. Get all of our hits, I think so. There's three, three hits of some sort. We've got Hunter Brown, we've got Gabriel Moreno, Diamondbacks, Blue Border, not numbered. That's fire to carbon, knows we're about to pull some heat. Got some rookie combos. We've got MLB debut, Michael Bush to 2023. It'd be interesting to see what the Dodgers do with him this off season or for the season. And rookie debut, Gunnar Henderson, your official AL rookie of the year. I forgot how many cards were in that Jumbo, and I need a different container, I'll get that later. All right, the Silver Packs, that's right, that's right, Gilo. Fire truck, because it's lit, I get it. Put that away, put these away. All right, let's work on that 2023 finest. Do people still say that? Do people still say things are lit? Or has that faded from our, from popular culture lexicon? You think it's migrated over to gas? People are saying gas? How are the kids these days using gas? You know that used to be a, they're just bringing back slang from the 60s. We'll use that, that's still in use. There's Freddie Freeman to 150. And Cody Clemens, 10 out of 25. Rookie orange auto, going to the fight in Phyllis Davis with the Phillies. Michael still says dope. Yeah, 60s is my area. It was it was it was a good time growing up in the 60s. I think the people still say dope. I feel like that's still that's still out there. That's like that might stand the test of time. 11 out of 199 Kodai Senga. Like like cool, you know, that's not cool is never going to go away. Hey, that's cool.  Joe Pizzle. That's right, Joe Pizzle. I remember remember being a teenager in the 60s. What a time. It's Christian Yellage to one a 75. Aqua shimmer. Nice. Josh Young rookie autograph tops finest. Stephen Campbell gets randomized. The Rangers gets a nice Josh Young on card autograph. If he played the whole season, he might have been might have been involved more in the A.L. Rookie of the Year conversation. There's Peter Lonzo to 250. Met said it'll be for Eduardo Corbin Carroll. Who is your official NL Rookie of the Year? Joe Pizzle, Simon Bax. All right, now let's go to some 2021. Bowman Crone, HTA, just three autos. This one doesn't have a slider box that year. So we're going back to 2021. There's Adam Kerner. Bowman first autograph. Was a college player. I don't know if he's what he's doing. I don't think he's on the big league roster yet. I'll still go to, I'll go to Carl on the ponderies. There's Elijah Dunham Yankees. That will be for Tristan. Got randomized his Yankees. Not sure where he is at the moment, but there he is. And Blue Mojo Armando Cruz, 60 out of 150. David, David H., with the Nats. Rated number five international prospect back in 2021. Keep an eye out for him. All right, let's, let's, let's do five stars. Stay, stay in 2021 mode. Got one of those, those see-through cards there. Let's use this blank card. Pop that around there. Just to slow play the hit a little bit. So we'll do the card on top first. It's, it's a nice one. Randy Arzirania. Nice. Tampa Bay Rays, Kevin with the Rays. We have, oh, wow. Nice. Two out of five, Cal Ripken Jr. Pentamaris Penmanship. And that's a train whistle for Nancy who has the Orioles. Nice one, Nance. Good looking card there. You can see Cal Ripken, that little shadow in the background looks really sharp. Nice. Nancy aboard the Big Hit Express. Woo-hoo. Nice train whistle to start out the day. I guess we'll do Gilded and close out with the hip raid. We do have hip raid, baseball and football. Dual case break in the store right now. Jaspy's casebrakes.com with the break that tonight. Let's finish it off. Your order's in. Let's see if we can get some stuff shipped your way. That's always the plan, always the hope. There's that autograph spot is right there. We got Vlad Guerrero, Ray Waved, 25. Expo stuff goes to the Nationals, David H. We got Miguel Vargas, 30 out of 99. Hopefully, rough rookie year for him. Hopefully, we'll get another shot. Making the team. There's Brett Beatty, 48 out of 75 for the Mets. That's gonna be for Eduardo. And your autograph is, it's nice. Grayson Rodriguez, rookie auto, 47 out of 50. Look at that, that max effort face right there. Love it. Kind of looks like Oral Hersheiser. Little bit. Nancy with the Orioles. Nice break for the O's. Eric, what's up? All right, the frame is gonna be bam. Nice, Andre Dawson, the Hawk, 13 out of 25 and that's Expo's edition, which will go to David H. Big boys, 007. For those of you who remember the old usernames. Nice. All right, now, final box, sixth and final. Thanks for getting in on this off-season quick hit baseball mixer, everybody, appreciate ya. I'm sure there'll be some more to look forward to. Maybe a hot stove mixer. All right, we got a thick card here. Ooh, what is this? Wow, from Immaculate Baseball, it's Dale Murphy, seven out of 49. Great auto, really thick card stock. That's pretty sweet. Who's got the braves? That'll be for Brian Bunts. There you go, Brian. Got a nice Dale Murphy going your way. Apparently one of the nicest guys in baseball. So they say. And there you go, gang. That's your six box break. Let's do a quick autograph recap. There is the Dale Murphy, the Dawson, some really nice stuff. The cowl, some prospects, some future stars. Nice relics, another potential future star right there. And classic Thurman Munson. There you go, gang. I'm Joe for jasphyscasebreaks.com. Thanks for watching. Thanks for breaking with us. And I'll see you next time for the next break. Bye-bye.


Cyn wych i'r ffordd o'r ffordd oherwydd mae'n gweithio i'r Ffordd i'r Cymru, a dwi'n gweithio'r ffordd oherwydd mae'n gweithio'r region yn ymweld ar y dyfodol. Ddau'r cyflwyno, Alan, a Daryl, ydych chi'n ddiweddu'n gweithio'n gweithio'n gweithio, ac yn oedd i'r meleisiau yn ysgol, yn ysgol, yn ysgol ysgol cyfligol. Gydag y bach o'r gweithio, gydag y bach o'r gweithio'n gweithio, Is this breathing fresh impetus into alternative trade deals like RCEP? Thank you, Sri. What is happening right now seems to give us this opportunity to look at ourselves once more in ASEAN. I know before I start on ASEAN, I did hear some comments from friends during our conversation over lunch. It's not as easy as I'm suggesting it to be that ASEAN should start thinking about consolidating together once more, talking less of being Thanos, taking away the Thanos in us, because at the end Thanos did die, by the way. We need to take away that greed about our own selves and we need to start taking opportunity of what was already built several years ago, and that is ASEAN. We have plastics, we have the other nations that are working with ASEAN as well. So we can create an economy through ASEAN where we can cushion all the effects of this uncertain American and Chinese trade war. How do we begin? Where do we start? I would propose that during the ASEAN meeting, the leaders of ASEAN, the economic ministers as well as the head of states, should just say, okay, enough of all the talk about our own country or the deficit of our country where some country says, oh, we are at least developed than you, or we are more developed than you. Forget about that in ASEAN, work as a singular ASEAN as an economy, work as a singular ASEAN to trade between ourselves and make it seamless between ourselves. So that could, and not 100%, but that could probably reduce the impact that is forthcoming because of this tariff war. That being said, Darryl, the regional diversity that makes up the ASEP membership, or I should say the potential ASEP membership, could potentially be something of a stumbling block because a lot of these countries are at very, very different stages of their economic development. How will the negotiator square that circle? The negotiator should have in their mind the idea during our ASEP discussion that the intention is to prosper their neighbour. If all our neighbours prosper together whereby we help each other, whereby we input to each other on how to develop their country into similar equal status as the others, then we'll be all right, we'll do all right. You see, Sri, a lot of people are already speculating on what is to come. We know it's going to happen, but then again, we have to embrace the fact that the solution must come right now for us, at least in anticipation there also. Tanabe san, if I can bring you in, and I'm wondering if history is a guide here. In the 80s and the 90s, there was a lot of friction between your country, between Japan and the United States, and there was a rather bruising confrontation between Japan and the US. Now, look at where you are today. Politically, the alliances are quite strong. Economically, they are quite strong as well. Is history a guide here? And what can we take away in terms of the lessons that we learned from the US-Japanese trade friction and what we are seeing today? Yes, I'm currently working for a private company, but I have been long involved in trade negotiations and trade policy making at the government. In fact, I was involved in a very severe US-Japan trade friction time. So, you know, what's happening now between US and China is a kind of deja vu to me. So, there are certain solutions. Back in the 1970s, 1980s, we were often pressured by the US with the Super 301, a kind of gunboat operation. And we negotiated on many issues, almost all sectors, and we ended up, in most cases, sometimes voluntary export restraint, or sometimes voluntary import expansion program by private sectors. So, that kind of things, that time, say, 30 years ago, have worked to soothe the calm the situation. But thereafter, everybody learned and we were in the Uruguay round negotiation and created WTO system. This is an open and free trading system based on rules. So, we have to be reminded what we have done out of our experiences in the 1980s. So, a rule-based open multilateral trading system based on rules is important. And we have to tackle with the unilateralism coming from certain corner. At the same time, at the same time, there are certain frustrations and complaints by the United States, which cannot be solved the current WTO rules and systems. In that perspective, we have to endeavour to improve, reform the WTO systems. So, we have to be in total mindset based on our historical experiences. Thank you for that. Victor, let me turn to you because you are best placed to offer the perspective from Hong Kong and also from mainland China. Let's start with Hong Kong first, just how concerned are the corporates with this very difficult trading climate and what is the mood in mainland China amongst the export industries and amongst the Chinese leadership as well in Beijing? I think we are a little bit confused, of course, because there is no clarity as to whether this is a short-term, medium-term or long-term struggle. But I think smart businesses, which many of my Hong Kong friends are, we need to hope for the best but prepare for the worst. And I think the psychology of the uncertainty really is the killer. A lot of the investment decisions are likely to be slightly slower down. And Hong Kong being one of the premier, you know, merchandising centre and a bridge in and out of China, obviously if this trade war is going to be more than a short-term phenomenon, there will be serious repercussions. And Hong Kong itself also has some structural problems that we need to manage. You know, our pack to the US dollar on a fixed rate is producing daily challenges. Our stock market has dropped 20%. That really is an accelerated technical correction because Hong Kong asset prices have been grossly overblown in the last five years. So in a way, if you look at the silver lining, it is an opportunity for us to get back to basis, catch up, look at our competitive advantages and try to be more lean and mean and reform. One of the initiatives, for example, for Hong Kong was the Hong Kong ASEAN free trade agreement that we signed last November, which is very interesting. Hong Kong wants to be more than just a greater China bridge. We want to be at the centre of Asia looking at closer relationship with Japan, with ASEAN, and whilst contributing to the China's Rural Bridge initiative and the Great Bay initiative. There's a lot of initiative coming out of Hong Kong right now. In the last 10 years, we have invested over US$100 billion in infrastructure and are coming on stream. Now on China, I think the net impact of the trade war is yet to be felt because so far it is de minimis. But it's the psychology of that trade war leading to a major strategic competition between two of the greatest economic powers in the world. That is nasty. I've always taken the view that President Trump is a smart businessman and President Xi is a very reasonable man and they seem to get on. Between them, they must be able to find a solution that can satisfy the immediate needs of each domestic political constituency. The silver lining of this trade war is that China's macroeconomic domestic reform is able to break some barriers, like the improvement of intellectual property rights, better market access for international investors, and also the improvement of the rule of law generally. That is going to be a silver lining because of the pressure from the West. But then the psychology of a strategic rivalry is something which may get the domestic sentiments misled in both countries. And I think that is something that we need to work at. Do you feel, Victor, that if things get really messy in terms of retaliation, China will make it difficult for companies to operate in the mainland? I hope not because China, like my learning friend from Japan has said, is committed to a rule-based trading system. China has, at least on its external economic affairs, wants to remain open and actually more wide open and pivot itself to its Asian neighbours. The fact that we have a vice-premiere of China here in Honei is very special. And I think that sends a message that China wants to work much closer with its Asian neighbours, including Arsan, but also Japan, India and Korea. So we all hope that cooler heads will prevail in this trade dispute. But if it does go down the slippery path of retaliatory tit-for-tat action, then what options does China have? There's a sense that I'm getting is that they are running out of tats, so to speak, and that leaves the currency. Is there a risk that Beijing will, as some believe it may, weaponise the currency and appreciate it to support the export sector? You know, in the era of global supply chain, the impact is going to be unthinkable if we have a major long-term struggle, more than a temporary trade war. It is the consumers in the market in the US and worldwide which is going to take the hit immediately because basic commodity consumer products is going to be a lot more expensive. And in China's tit-for-tat is going to be a lot more measure and specific, and that's going to hit constituencies which shouldn't be. And then in this part of the world too, because a lot of the manufacturers here produce intermediate products for final assembly in China, is going to be too. So the thinking that trade war between US and China will benefit Asian manufacturers, that may happen in the medium and long term, but short term is actually quite difficult to replace China's supply chain. Probably I think my Japanese friends will be probably the most efficient in reinventing that because they have been big investors in China and also big investors in ASEAN, a Japanese investor is the biggest investor in ASEAN. They will be able probably to manage the supply chain arrangement, but not everybody can be that efficient and that quick. So I think it is not something that I like to think should happen in the long term. A very important point, Victor, that I'd like the panel to expand on and that is the reaction amongst companies based in Asia who have supply chains, especially in China, who are now looking to relocate because of the trade frictions. And let me start with Tanabe san. Is that a conversation that Japanese multinational corporations are having right now and if they are, what are the favoured destinations in terms of supply chain relocation? I would expect here in Vietnam would be one of them and Thailand as well if you could expand on that, that would be very useful. Well, generally speaking, major multinational Japanese companies have strategy of China plus one, meaning of course a lot of investment has been done in China and maybe more investment. But to balance China, many Japanese big industries are investing mainly in ASEAN, sometimes India, sometimes Bangladesh. So in that way Japanese major companies have done certain hedging operation already, but still those big companies will have trouble in certain sudden shocks, so they have to be well prepared. But there are many SMEs and mid-sized companies only investing in one place. That's a bit difficult situation for them to shift or transform their supply chains. So in any way controlling and keeping maintaining supply chains needs stable trade and investment regime that should be reminded to countries like of course the US, China and big countries. They should be mindful of global economy which will be affecting the sudden change, affecting the supply chains of big industries and also SMEs. Alan, if you could just pick up on that point and this time put on your former central bank governor's hat and talk about the second round effects of tariffs and especially this tariffs as taxes on the consumer narrative which seems to be gaining a little bit of traction in the US. We're already starting to see the pricing pressures at the factory gate in PPI and I think the crucial question for policy makers at the Fed is at what point are those producers going to pass on those higher costs to consumers and at what point are we going to see a rather nasty cost push inflation situation? Well you do have to think about that and all the economic models say this is a bad thing, it's going to hurt, it's going to hurt, the models say it's going to hurt the United States and China. I've heard some people in ASEAN say well we can do something more positive out of it but how does it hurt mainly through price increases but also through distortion and pushing businesses into investing in second best places as a result of all of that. It doesn't happen short term. The negative effects take a while to feed through. Yes, you're right, there's been some evidence of industrial price increase in the United States. I can't see any sign of consumer price index yet but of course it's going to happen if that continues and there will be a significant negative in all of this. So I think short term we're seeing businesses checking supply chains, we're seeing inventory going up because businesses are worried about short falls or... So are front loading in other words? I'm talking about the Asia Pacific region as a result of getting into markets in the United States. US economy looks like it's growing very well. Some of that is inventory build up, some of which will be shorter term sort of feature. And then more medium term is a question about investment. Where do you invest and how do you move this? A lot of the exports out of China into the US are mainly not made in China, they're mainly made in other places particularly mainly in ASEAN and a fair amount of it with Japanese or other foreign investment. And of course that does mean that in the medium term it's mobile but everybody's waiting to see just where all that comes through. Could we see a real impact on exchange rates or from exchange rates? I mean ironically in China at the moment with the RMB weaker than it has been against the US dollar it looks like they're probably getting a lift to their exports roughly of the equivalent of the negative effect that the tariffs from the US have put in place. But again that could be a short term sort of feature. We wouldn't want to see a big impact coming through on to exchange rates out of this because at that stage you start saying could an economic shock like this have a financial implication as well. Let me just pick up on that with specific regard to China and in the course of our reporting a lot of currency strategists have been saying that look, dollar C and Y at the 7 level is a very politically loaded number and that's a red rag to a ball in the Trump administration. Are we going to get there and if we do get there is there a risk that the US will use that as ammunition to label China as a currency manipulator and up the ante even further? Well we don't know. I mean it could happen. It won't just happen with China if you look around the region you'll see plenty of other exchange rates that have dropped by around 9% this year and of course that's partly because the US dollar or largely because the US dollar has increased as a reserve currency. So I think we all understand the whole thing is connected like that. I don't know what the political rhetoric will be on the back of that. But suffice to say as trade tensions escalate this is going to be a pro dollar story because it's going to feed into paradoxically safe haven demand for the US dollar. That's a fair assumption is it? OK, if anyone has any questions in our audience I'd love to bring you in at this point in time. If you could just say who you are and where you're from we will get a microphone to you. Does anyone want to get the ball rolling? We have a colleague with a microphone who's in the audience. Yes sir. That's Donald. I'm Don Hannah from CIMB. We've been talking about trade but some of the conflicts that we see in particular vis-a-vis the United States and China revolve not so much about trade as they revolve around investment and the rules that govern investment in intellectual property rights. I wonder what opinions that panel might have on those issues. Thank you. Who'd like to tackle that one first because it is a very important question in so far as there is a perception that there are IP issues going on in China but the tariff narrative, the heavy handed approach seen by some is not the right way to go about it. Victor do you want to tackle that one? I think the psychological effect of the trade war which may lead to something more fundamental will basically force investors to wait and see. We are one of those and I think it's only responsible as an investor just to wait and see a little bit to see how events unfold. One hope is a short term thing but if it's a long term thing we have to review our investment plans and to see whether we can do it smarter. That's the sad thing because we're taking out liquidity, long term FDI which were otherwise coming into emerging markets to fuel the reform and development and I think this trade war is going to make investors second guess the end result. Likewise with Brexit, a lot of us have been looking to invest in the United Kingdom but Brexit is like mirror images, you don't know how it won't go so the natural thing is to wait and see. So I think that is part of the problem, we are going to see less liquidity flowing into ASEAN, we are going to see less FDI coming in if this trade tension persists and I hope we are all mindful to that and really talk to our own representatives in the right countries to find a way round so that it doesn't affect not just the global supply chain but the normal investment flow. Alan we will get to you but just a cheeky question from me Victor because I am British in case you didn't realise but on Brexit is there a risk that we see Britain crashing out of the European Union by that deadline of March 2019 with no transitional deal? Well, who knows, I think that's the, if you ask number 10 they will say that that won't happen right but then if you ask the man on the street every day there are more people thinking that it could be the no deal scenario is becoming more real and that will probably the worst case scenario for everybody and I hope that that will not happen either. Thank you for that. Alan you wanted to make a point. Very interesting question on intellectual property and investment and I think the political economy looks totally different about that because in the United States there is quite a bit of concern about tariffs but there does seem to be a community of interest right across the corporate sector that there is something about the difficulties of investing in China and the worries about preserving intellectual property and all of that and indeed it looks like there could be a coalition of interests not just American but European and others as well and some of that is behind some of the concerns around the WTO dispute systems as well so that's a little bit different from a political point of view but of course we know that when it comes to investment regimes it's quite less transparent in terms of barriers to these things and also there's quite a lot of room for retaliation just from a country making it more difficult for another country to invest through bureaucratic red tape those sort of issues. Of course that comes back to the Made in China issue and Made in China which is getting a lot of attention in the United States a lot of criticism there looks a little bit like what Japan did in the 1950s, 60s and the Asian Tigers did in the 60s, 70s, 80s except that China is so big that that really moves the world and does make it more difficult like that but again I wonder if what we might be seeing in terms of criticism from the United States on that could actually feed into that China Made in China argument because more and more we see ZTE for an example which has got a lot of trouble supplying its own semiconductors out of China and one of the arguments that presumably China takes out of that is we need to be more self-sufficient and we'll see where that one runs. Is this really at the core of this trade dispute? It's Washington's beef with Made in China 2025. Oh it's one of the beefs. And how insurmountable then are these non-tariff barriers on both sides? Well I'm not sure we've really seen the non-tariff barriers yet but there's a lot of scope for them to come and to come in covert ways that could be very difficult to deal with. Darrell. Actually the same opinion actually. You can't really tell on the non-tariff problems that we'll face when the time comes. I'm looking more at ASEAN again. I'd like to quote what Jokowi mentioned. The Avengers all got together. So this is that moment in time where we have to start thinking about what will impact on us in the coming year. Because all this like Alan mentioned and also Victor mentioned as well as Tanabe. You won't feel it now. You'll probably feel it next year. The impact will be there. Property prices will be impacted as well. And so will cost of goods services as well. So ASEAN have to get together and all those that are able to work together including the other non-ASEAN country within our region should sit down and say okay we better create this economy amongst ourselves and buy between ourselves as well. And it's interesting because we were talking about this in the green room. The ASEAN China factor is a very compelling one. Victor has said it very clearly. The dragon and the tigers. Exactly but there are some issues. There will be issues. I wonder if we can return to that conversation. Just get back to the audience. And yes gentlemen in the second row has a question. Yes sir please. I am Praveen from Awadagrop India. I have a question. I mean in the last two decades most of countries have thrived and grown through this global trade. Now with protectionism and I could speak US heads bad with a lot of countries. Even countries within themselves are blocking trade and creating trade barriers. How do you foresee global trade going forward? And what's the policy prescription for governments for achieving that in case the trade barriers increase further down? Did you make out the question clearly? I'm so sorry sir there was some problem with the audio or maybe the microphone. Could you just repeat your question? Because of the trade barriers that's increasing. Now most of the countries had policies around export oriented growth. China is a prime example of that and a lot of countries have tried to replicate it. But now with this global trade, with a lot of these trade barriers and inward looking approach of countries. What's the approach that developing countries should take in terms of to achieve growth? If there are trade barriers are too high. I think the gist of the question is for countries that are quite heavily dependent on trade and if the situation with trade is looking increasingly challenging then is it incumbent on those countries to start building out a more stronger domestic consumption led economy. Which is what China is doing now admittedly. Is that the hedge and is that the offset? Yes I think that's an interesting question but quite a complicated one. Actually when I look at the regional trade flows I'd say that initially some of the problems or challenges aren't so much ASEAN they're actually north east Asia because it's Korea and Japan and Chinese Taipei that are exporting into China with some minimal value add which is going on to the United States. So they look like the ones that have got the highest exposure via China into the United States. So it will be interesting to see if there is re-hubbing or investment that doesn't just come to ASEAN it might go into other north east Asian places for that and then that also brings up another issue. Would we see other countries in the region retaliating or doing domestic policy moves they might want to do which might not look like they're WTO compatible but doing it undercover effectively and we've already seen one country putting up tariffs recently and it's hard to criticise that. And you're referring to Indonesia? Yes. Right and let's pick up on that because you and I were talking about this Alan and Indonesia's tariffs on I believe it's in the region of 1500 consumer goods is aimed at reducing import dependency and therefore stabilising the currency. That seems to be born out of necessity. Are they going to get hit by the WTO and are they protectionist? Well some of it I understand they are doing because of exchange rate movements rather than just sort of industry policy but yeah they could and it could spread through ASEAN and that wouldn't be good for ASEAN as a whole. Thank you very much indeed for that question. Does anybody else want to contribute gentlemen towards the front please? My name is Munir Majid. I'm from ASEAN Business Advisory Council Malaysia. I think you mentioned the 80s and the 90s and the stand out event then was the Plaza Accord so-called Plaza Accord which resulted in the revaluation of the Yen and a Deutschmark at that time and this in turn resulted in relocation of investment especially by the Japanese companies. Now have you reached a point in this trade war where people are beginning to take investment actions to get out of China or even Chinese companies also investing outside of China so as to surmount the barriers that's coming from the state and take advantage of the ASEAN integration that the minister spoke about. Tanabesan please go ahead. I would say yeah we have experienced trade frictions then Plaza Accord then the exchange rate rearrangement very sharply very sharply that was a shock so Japanese industries making a lot of investment in Asia especially in ASEAN countries but at this moment I don't think there is that kind of shock that magnitude of shock has not yet happened especially in terms of the exchange rate issues. I don't know certain political uncertainty which may affect investment decision by companies of those countries I don't know yet. And I know I'm glad you mentioned the Plaza Accord and I know it may be a little bit of a pie in the sky theory but in some circles there is now talk of a Trump Plaza Accord where the currency US dollar is revalued Trump has already made it no secret that he wants a weaker dollar there seems to be confusion over the exact direction of dollar policy but let's bring in the former central banker on that what's the possibility of that happening? Weaker dollar. Well I don't think there's much chance of a weaker dollar while the US has reserved currency and while there's volatility in the markets and concern about future policy in addition no one's mentioned US macro policies where we have this rather unusual situation of a gradually tightening monetary policy but a very loose fiscal policy that's going to need a realignment at some stage as well so I don't know but I don't actually see how that one happens. Do you think this US growth leadership that we're witnessing now this entire narrative over US exceptionalism as far as the growth trajectory is concerned is that part of the explanation as to why we are seeing such an aggressive trade posture that Washington feels look we are winning this we're doing okay the markets are doing well why stop here? I mean there is strong activity in the US economy and you can see current and previous presidents arguing about who's responsible for that but that's been a long time building up in all of this there's quite limited capacity now with the steel issue for example I understand a number of old steel plants are being taken out of moth balls and put back into production and there's a lot of productivity you'd have to expect there's going to be price pressures on all of that so this has got to come through in the wash it's going to take some time to do that and then we still don't know how much of what's being talked about in a policy sense is actually going to be ongoing and long term and we'd very much like to see what happens in NAFTA as well. Okay thank you for that Alan and let's return back to the audience please right in the front row. Thank you very much my name is Kumagai and I'm a chief economist of Daiwa and I'd like to ask a simple question what are the best scenario and the worst scenario of the current global trade war and what is the most important point of divergence between these two scenarios? Very good question. Darrell shall we start with you? Best and worst case scenarios economically let's start with your country which is pretty trade dependent. We will be definitely very concerned on what will happen because we are very dependent on trade and we do export a lot to both China and also to America they are our biggest trading partner as well so if there was any diversion of it like I said we know this is going to happen, we know what's to come we best focus on what we already have within our region first the supply chain is amongst all of us anyway between ASEAN and also Indochina we are all together we just built our economy between ourselves first and still trade on with the Chinese and of course the Americans while they have their problems and issues we hope that their leadership will come into the table and we hope that they can discuss together and treat this as a method that needs to be resolved soon enough of all the tariff wars imposed between each other as well and look at the bigger picture and the bigger picture is all of us, ultimately the future that's my thought on it Thank you Darrell and let's just cross over right to the other end of the panel and pick up with Victor we're already seeing a slowdown in economic activity in mainland China there is a sense amongst some of the more pessimistic forecasters that we could see growth decelerate by the end of the year to 6.2 even 6% I know that's a worst case scenario but how realistic is that? Let me start with the best scenario the best scenario with pressure from Washington will encourage China to speed up its structural economic reform which has been blocked by a lot of vested interests so in a way, Xi Jinping and a lot of the reformist group will be helped by the White House and indeed this argument could apply across the world because we treasure the rule-based system that we have built up over the years I mean the WTO by no means perfect but it's the fairest and the most non-distrumentary system we have detailed with other international organisations none of which are perfect But even that is coming under question now Exactly, but if because of the way that Washington is coming out it makes me think and it creates a climate of reform now if we just achieve that President Trump will go down in history as the most effective American president in modern history I'm saying that's the best scenario it's a catalyst for strategic smart reasonable reform because it may well be Trump's negotiation position because he's never shown his real card so in other words he will go down in history if he manages through his trade policy to get the leadership in Beijing to correct the imbalances and indeed in terms of some of other international initiatives too but that's the best scenario The worst scenario is that this trade war becomes a long-term struggle between ideologies and everything we have learned to expect in the last 30-40 years that reform of a market will allow a society whichever political system it may be under to be more open, more responsible, more responsive to social needs and also play a more constructive role regionally, internationally all that probably will have to be redefined and trade problems will lead to economic problems economic problems tend to lead to political problems political problems will lead to social problems and social problems will lead to conflicts and that is not something which personally I like to entertain at all so I think we have to be careful that it is, you know, 70-80 years ago after the major conflict we set up international institutions including the likes of international Chamber of Commerce many to promote trade and development because we believe that is a guarantor of harmony and peace and it is only with peace that societies can prosper so I think that could be a worst-case scenario And Victor, just very quickly, would you agree with President Jacoey when he said that this current round of trade tensions is so intense and he hasn't seen this kind of intensity on the trade front since going back in history in the 1930s is that an accurate representation historically? I think this time is different because this time when we have these tensions is coupled with major generational change technological change and societal change I think that's where the combination of all happening at one time makes the whole thing more unpredictable because until probably three years ago we believe we are in a globally interdependent world we are in a globally connected world and we look upon the benefits of globalization that has brought millions, hundreds of millions from the property line we look at the benefits of that and we are seeing some of the pushbacks of globalization and the speed of technological change and people feel uncertainties displaced and now you are having this right wing or left wing radical political voices becoming mainstream so I think these tensions are happening at the time of major social change and that's why it's difficult to deal with well, I would say the best case scenario would be China will offer a certain concession to the US because if they go into trade war China has more disadvantage because of the difference of dependence on export so China will be more affected so China smart people China's leadership are very smart and learn a lot from the history including Japanese experience so I would hope China will offer maybe certain import expansion program or certain reform on say IPP or SOEs so they can do, they should do then US may be satisfied that's the best case scenario the worst case scenario is of course the tariff war, trade war going to affect each other and affecting the global economy in order not to happen we have to work hard we mean Asia, East Asia especially say Japan, ASEAN or APEC we should work including Hong Kong of course we should work so we have to build up certain mechanism we have now CPTPP which should entry into force as soon as possible and maybe expanding maybe expand to have new members and RCEP, RCEP is very important and now we are in the final stretch of the negotiation we should agree the high level RCEP agreement for the sake of East Asia and for the sake of global trade regime so that kind of tools we have to build up then during doing so we should and I think we can build up mutual confidence among East Asian people APEC people and of course including China and the US that kind of mutual trust building process is very important Alan well that was an interesting question and I agree with all the answers I mean best possible that we see some of the policies that have been put in place being pulled back that we see the current account deficit of the United States that well actually it's the merchandise trade deficit with the focus on the manufacturing sector to be precise we see that particular deficit against China because that's the one that's the really big one pulling back but it's not happening at the moment and we're going through a period when after all we are seeing a bipolar


I'm talking about playing it a good 12 hours or so before it's actually available, at least in the United States. It'll vary country by country. And the reason I'm mentioning this method is because it's stupidly simple, but I think a lot of people forget about it. But before I get into that, I want to talk about our giveaway. We are giving away three copies of Super Mario 3D All Stars. If you would like to win that, head to the Gleam.io link down in the description. Also, we're giving away a Switch Lite with two second place winners getting Switch Games of Choice. Laundry list of ways to enter as well down in the description. So go check that out. And good luck everyone. The winners are announced. All six winners are announced on October 1st. All right. So this method is stupidly, stupidly simple. Here's the deal. Do you guys know the Switch is region free? I'm sure you didn't know that, right? Like the Switch is legitimately region free. That means you can download and purchase games from any country. If you live in the United States, I assume that you want it to be an English version of the game. In order to do that, in order to take advantage of that, you need to create a new Nintendo account.  You need to have an email that is not registered to Nintendo. You set up an account. It's stupidly simple. And when you get to the point where you're entering your email, well, not your email, but when you get to the point where you're entering your password, your username, your age, all that, do all that normally. But when it comes to the country selector, change it from United States or Canada or Mexico or whatever country you happen to be in, to Australia. All right, you go through that process. Now you have an Australian Nintendo account. Now you need to link that Nintendo account to your Switch. So just like how you linked your original account to Switch, I'm sure you guys know how to do it, right?  And you say yes, and then you enter the information you did to create your Australian account. This is nothing unusual. I have a Japanese account. I have an Australian account. I got a UK account. You can then access through that account, the Australian eShop and download the game. And because Australia is ahead of our time zone by a good 12 hours, you'll be able to play the game 12 hours early. It's that's it. It's stupidly simple. Now the one thing that gets people sometimes is you do have to buy foreign eShop cards or be comfortable using PayPal. I personally use PayPal. PayPal does a lot of currency conversions. So you could end up paying with with the local Australian currency and be fine with the PayPal account. But some people don't like messing with PayPal. So the other way is to buy Australian eShop cards and you might be like, how the hell do I do that? Well, there's a lot of shady places on the internet to do it. The websites that seem stupidly shady, but you know, they're okay. But you know, they're mostly okay. I have actually gone to many of these websites myself. In fact, I will link a couple in the description for you to get Australian eShop cards. Now it is a little more expensive in Australia. It's $80 Australian. However, that converts down to 5832. So you're going to need about 80 bucks either in $80 Australian, either in your PayPal account or through eShop gift cards, you can combine different types of cards. Again, I will link to a couple sites down below where you can get these Australian eShop cards. Now, some people might be like, why didn't you go through and show us on screen how to do all this crap?  And if you own a switch, I'm presuming you have set up an account on it before. All you're doing is making a new account on your switch. You can have like up to eight of them. You're just making a new account and linking it to a fresh Nintendo account that happens to be located in Australia. It's super dumb. Like I have a Japanese one because I download demos at the Japanese eShop. It's all in Japanese. That's why I didn't say, hey, you know, like they're 14 hours ahead or whatever, like, hey, go to go get the Japanese version. Like you can, but Australia is the way to go if you want the English version of the game. And yes, once you have it, you will also be able to play it on your original account as well. Like it's just like anything you make a digital purchase with any account on your switch, all accounts have access to that purchase. So yeah, it's, it's just a way to get it. It's region free. Obviously, this isn't about getting it physically early. I know there are some places that are broken street date. So that's another method out there. You know, you can see if there's places willing to break street date. I don't believe in that. I hate retail outlets that do that. I know there's some Walmart's that I've done it already. So that's a thing.  But yeah, that's that's another method too, I guess. But there you go. If you can't wait, if you just the hype is too real. And heck, maybe you have a physical copy, but you don't want to open it. So you already were going to buy digitally anyways. Hey, here's a way to do it and play early. All right, folks. Nice and short for you guys. Nothing too crazy. Again, I want to thank everyone. We recently hit 50,000 subscribers, because we have 50,000 subscribers, we have a new giveaway happening probably at the start of next month. It's going to be two month long giveaway for an Xbox Series X, the PlayStation 5 or Nintendo Switch. There'll be a couple second place winners for Age of Calamity as well. We'll also have an additional giveaway in the month of October for Pikmin 3 Deluxe. We'll probably give away at least one copy of that. But yeah, I just I just wanted to throw that out there. We're also on our road to 100,000 subscribers now. I don't know if this is going to happen. It's crazy. But if we hit 100,000 subscribers before January 1 2021, I'm going to be given away $1,000 in gaming gear in January. So we're talking pro controllers, switch consoles, we're talking games, we're talking whatever accessories, anything that that my heart desires here. I'm trying to get at least 100 winners for that one 100 winners to celebrate, you know, 100,000. So we'll see what happens.  It's just kind of a culmination of things that came together that's enabling me to do this. And I really want to thank you guys from the bottom of my heart. You guys watching the videos not like, yeah, I get that we have a bunch of people commenting and talking about giveaways and that's great. But honestly, it's you people watching the videos that do it for me. You guys are the ones that make this possible, make my channel possible, knowing that I'm going to have at least, you know, probably about 1000 people minimum watching every video is just it's very heartwarming. All right, folks, that's what I got for you. All right, I'll catch you guys in, well, you know, the next video. of what is going on. So it is daytime in Del Fino Plaza. Our poor residents tremble beneath


There's a lot of sunscreen left in there we're good the more you know who you are That's what it's all about that is what it's all about all right look how big it is Those are rollers, but we're gonna just save them for later You need one of those wooden sticks in that plastic bag you start looking great guys Looking real good Crushing it. I was getting a little light-headed Todd out sometimes I forget to eat lunch you just get in that groove and you can't stop you know so a little revival Eating healthy is one of my goals in 2017. Mmm spinach grapes tuna mmm Little coleslaw a little homemade ranch dressing that's what I'm talking about Feeling better. How you doing Seth? You going poo-poo? Seth, what are you doing? And basically just got down dinner good little jog Shout out to bud and true love for helping me figure out why the vlog Today, which was actually yesterday's footage wasn't playing or wasn't really showing up in the vlog playlist It was just bizarre and I was so busy with painting. I didn't really have the time to stop and figure it out So I got a text from bud like an hour ago, and he said he'd sent me a screenshot of this SME Message appearing on his phone and basically that stands for Sony music Enterprise, I don't know something like that But basically it was a copyright infringement on my part and so I was thinking to myself wait a minute I've used this musician before for the background music so I couldn't figure it out His name is Englewood, but then bud text me like three or four times and this eventually he asked the question Was it the background music and it immediately made me remember that Yesterday I was jamming out to some Bob Dylan and some Neil Young in the shed Kind of organizing the shed last night for the camping stuff and sure enough the camera this microphone Picked up pretty well obviously the Bob Dylan and the Neil Young and Sony You know the YouTube algorithm basically was a oh whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa you're using this song But I wasn't using it. I was simply listening to it in the shed enjoying my life a little Anyway, we got it figured out. I muted those clips. I'm uploading it again right now So thank you for your patience if you were wondering yesterday why what took so long to upload the video That's why I still love you Bob. I still love you I reckon I reckon that's all she wrote today Simple vlog today today when your film when sorry when you're painting for Eight hours, you know, man, maybe nine hours. You just don't have a ton of time to film You know, so thanks for sticking with the simple vlog. I love you all question of the day Have you ever painted a house if you want it? I think I've already asked this question once before but if you have any tips throw them down there and I'm enjoying it. It's fun.  Oh, I love the painting scraping not so much but you got to do it so We'll see you tomorrow Fourth of July is the next day and I'm just it's July July is a great month I must say I love June. I love June, but July a little lower key not as much traveling. So We're just we're just living baby living Seek beauty or card paint. Well each other