nt 13th, they realized that, you know, there were other teams picking in the pretty near future who might be going offensive line. There was also a lot of buzz leading in that there could be a massive massive run on offensive line. Vera Tucker could slot in their left guard for the Jets might be an upgrade there. Okay, so I'm going to read the details of the trade here. The Jets traded number 23, number 66, and number 86 for number 14, number 143. So they traded two third round picks, including a high third round pick to move up to number 14, and then dig it one pick back as well. So we'll see what the Jets do here. But I want to go to you, Ryan. We do have a pretty decent sample on Justin Herbert with the Chargers, but they've made good moves this year. They do lose Hunter Henry, but they've got a good supporting cast. So how are you feeling about this offense for DFS heading into 2021? Yeah, love Justin Herbert. The guy is just awesome. I mean, just talk about swag that he just exudes out of his body. Keenan Allen is a guy who always gets slept on. I think this is going to be an awesome team to stack because they're showing up everything. They got a new new coordinators coming in and a new head coach coming in. So I definitely like Herbert here. I think it's going to be awesome to stack them with the healthy Keenan Allen, get Mike Williams out there. Even a guy like Jalen Geithen, depending on what they do, later on in the draft, who they're going after. Jared Cookie never excites me, but I do think that Justin Herbert is going to win.  I was waiting for you, Jared Cook, our beautiful boy. Has to be done. Has to be done. He's getting older. Get Parham some reps. No, but I think Justin Herbert will definitely win a lot of people money when you're talking about stacking and being able to stack the running back as well, who is receiving back there in Austin Eckler, having two dynamic weapons there on the outside. I think that's awesome. And then Keenan Allen always gets slept on. I feel like I don't know what it is. He gets no respect. I don't feel like in fantasy circles from a general standpoint, not anybody here from a general standpoint. I hated him last year and missed out completely. That's fair. But no, I think he'll be a good target in best balls as well too. And the best thing about teams where they do the right things as far as football moves go and not the sexy fantasy move is that people start to forget about those guys. So nobody's going to be thinking about the Charger's offense when they're taking offense of tackle to sure up the things that would make Justin Herbert's life better. It's all about the sexy picks and where they go and where they land. So if it stays this way, I think we can definitely buy low on the Charger's offense. And that's a huge help for Austin Eckler. They have quite a bit invested in him from a money perspective going forward. You see the trade details here for the jets on the screen now, but that's a that's a big upgrade for Eckler who had some, you know, didn't have a lot of running room last year. Brandon, it seems like you're down on stacking. How are you feeling about the Charger's heading into next year? You feeling okay with going Keenan, Mike Williams, Austin Eckler with Justin Herbert? Yeah, I mean, toward the end of the season, we do like two weekly shows for, you know, looking at DFS toward the end of the season, I was just kind of like playing Justin Herbert. We'd always give our picks for the week, guys we love them. I just started like trending toward like, why not Justin Herbert? He has had a ceiling, clear stacking candidate in Keenan Allen, 26% target share in the games that he played. Just makes it kind of simple whenever you get that target share, target shares like, you know, target share is not always there whenever we're looking at some of these, you know, teams that we were talking about earlier, but now we're getting into the team like the Chargers where Keenan's going to get peppered with targets, and that makes for a great stack. So they just showed the Jets fans celebrating. They also showed Matt Jones, he's laughing. Is he going to New England? He's got to be going to New England. Like, it's going to happen. Matt Jones was meant to go to New England from the start. Like, it just felt like it was going to be his spot. They get the the pocket passer that they just lost in Tom Brady. Okay, so the Jets did go with Elijah Vera Tucker, probably going to play left guard for them. So he goes alongside Mackay Bekton, offensive linemen and back to back years. Joe Douglas loves since and big boys. Okay, so they put Elijah Vera Tucker in a left guard for the Jets. They were previously ranked 22nd, which honestly is not bad. They do move up. They leapfrog one team moved to 20th in the offer. They were 21st moved 20th in offensive line ranking. So they don't move up all that much because it's a guard had an okay prior and then to begin with. But I think the overall thought process of getting good impactful players at positions of importance around Zach Wilson is the way to go. I kind of wish they would address right tackle instead of left guard, but beggars can't be choosers. So I guess they do go with the left guard there. The Vikings trade down to pick number 23, which puts the Patriots on the clock here with pick number 15. Brandon, I want to go to you because the Jets, they get Zach Wilson. They have better supporting cast than they had previously. Do I ask you for their win total projection previously? I may have. I don't remember. Okay, well, let's do it right now again just in case. So they're over under on Fox bet is six and a half. My most recent simulation has them at actually 6.7 wins. It's kind of weird to think about the Jets is in over at all ever just because of what they've been over the past few years. Borderline top 12 schedule, which is not ideal. But you know, we're looking at six and a half wins in a 17 game season, investing in the offensive line, getting a big quarterback upgrade. It's pretty nice. Okay, so we'll see what the Patriots do here at pick number 15. Ryan final call. Do the Patriots go Mac Jones at the 15th overall pick? Yeah, I'm going to say they do. I'm going to say they draft their first quarterback in the first round since drew blood. So I believe like 93 or 92 when that was, and they just, you know, maybe let him sit for a little bit. I'm not sure. I think they were, they don't have the offense right now to kind of take care of what Mac Jones wants to do.  So I guess, you know, Titans, Titans are going to get peppered there in New England if he, when he gets the chance to start, but you know, bringing back Cam Newton, I think they might let him kind of, you know, ride it out for a little bit. And then if he starts to struggle again, like he did towards the end of the 2020 season, put Mac Jones in there, but I don't know how good that would be until, you know, they get more weapons for him. Yeah, I mean, like it is, it is better than it was previously, but Nelson Aglauer is like, how much of an upgrade is that really outside of the tight end? Tight end is definitely an upgrade, but like, you know, questions around the other stuff. Okay. So the pick is in here for the Patriots, potentially Mac Jones finally ending his fall here at pick number 15. And kind of funny that there's much buzz around Jimmy Garoppolo being traded to the Patriots, because they were going to draft Matt Jones at number three. Instead, they go trade Lance, Mac Jones, falls to number 15 and is taken there by the New England Patriots. So Mac Jones goes to New England. And we've made some, I've made some jokes on Mac Jones. They are jokes. I actually think Mac Jones is fine.  You don't put up the stats he put up unless you are a competent quarterback, no matter how good the supporting cast is around you knew it was very good. The reason I was skeptical about him from a quarterback prospecting perspective is that he is in a bucket of quarterbacks that doesn't tend to be very successful. So let's pretend for a second, Mac Jones had been a top five pick. He wasn't, but let's pretend for a second that he had been there are, I think like, is it five or six other players who have been older and less experienced? So the bucket for that for me is coming off your age 22 season or older and with less than 34 games of experience, Mac Jones had just 19 games of 10 plus pass attempts coming out of Alabama. So he missed that cut off by a pretty wide margin. This is not cherry picking. He missed it by a lot. The quarterbacks who have fallen in that older, less experienced bucket have been guys like Sam Bradford, Mitchell Trebisky, sorry, Ryan, Mark Sanchez, Carson Wentz. It's been a lot of busts. Joe Burrow is the kind of the one guy you could point to. I mean, Carson Wentz is a successful pick, got a second contract, had a good year for them. But Joe Burrow is kind of the one exception. Now he falls to 15. The number of times the hit rate on a quarterback taken with the 15th overall pick is very different than a quarterback who goes much higher in the draft. So that's scary for Mac Jones. But he does go to a team that generally has, I would say, pretty smart play callers. He did have great efficiency and college mention before that Zach Wilson was a guy who had very good numbers against top 50 defense or top 50 defenses by SV Plus. Mac Jones actually is the best number in that group of all drafted quarterbacks since 2010. So there were good things with Mac Jones, and that bodes well, but less experienced older quarterbacks don't tend to pan out. Like there have been 69 total seasons, very nice, nice quarterbacks taken the first round who were older and experienced. Only two of those 69 seasons have been top 10 by total unexpected points. That was Ryan Tannehill this year and Carson Wentz in 2017. That is not a great track record. So that's the concern of me with Mac Jones is older, less experienced. A lot of question marks there. Brandon, when you plug Mac Jones at pick 15 into your database, who comes up as a top comp for him? Well, you joke that he was going to be very similar to Dwayne Haskins. And Haskins remains his top comp for me. But you talk about the experience and the age being somewhat of an issue. Some of his other comps include Brandon Whedon, Tua, Rex Grossman, Sam Bradford, Josh Rosen, Matt Leiner. So not exactly what you want to see. But again, context matters a ton. And he's going to a situation where he should be able to thrive. The Patriots should be able to get the best out of him. So factoring in that, it's probably more promising than what we see here. But I think honestly, it's not the worst fit. It's kind of intriguing, although I don't know about Ryan. We haven't talked about this. But I think we're probably all in the campaign where Cam Newton was pretty good until last season after he got COVID. So I don't know. I mean, it's going to be interesting to see how that exactly shakes out. But I was not on like, they got to move on from Cam Newton for sure. So if we take Draftstock to be similar to Mac Jones, so let's say older, less experienced first round picks since 2000, who went outside the top 10. That list is Christian Ponder, E.J. Manuel, Rex Grossman, JP Losman, Brandon Whedon, Patrick Ramsey. Not great. That is gross. So good for him.  JJ, what are your projections say about Mac Jones now that he is a new England patriot? Yeah.  So right now I have him for just 1200 passing yards, seven passing touchdowns, 0.3 rushing touchdowns. As we know, he's not one of the best at.  So like it's could be fine. Arizona is picking right now. So I'm okay.  Xavin Collins was going 16th overall in everyone that didn't have Najee Harris. It seemed like they were going with Xavin Collins that I guess actually only Daniel Jeremiah had him, but like there were a lot of mocks had Xavin Collins. So keep going, JJ. Xavin Collins going to Arizona. Yeah. So, you know, I wouldn't expect Mac Jones to be, you know, the starter right away in New England this year unless Cam Newton like gets annoyed or upset or whatever and doesn't want. And I'm not saying that because it's Cam Newton. I'm saying that because he's a starting quarterback in the NFL and he, you know, and, and players are like, you know, yeah, exactly. Because, you know, you're realizing Cam, Cam is so underrated as like a human and like a player and teammate and stuff. And it's very frustrated whenever he gets that kind of slack. But yeah. So I, you know, from a dynasty standpoint, again, we'll go back to Super Flex because I think that's more intriguing to talk about. If you're in a non Super Flex league, Mac Jones is like a very late round pick and rookie drafts. But if you're in a Super Flex league, I'm still taking, you know, we're taking the four quarterbacks ahead of him as we noted. I'm still taking, you know, the big three running backs, Jamar Chase ahead of him probably, unless I'm very quarterback needy. And then once you get into these wide receivers like Devontae Smith and, you know, Jalen Waddle and all, you know, this next tier of wide receivers, I think you can start to make the argument that he should be drafted, that he should be picked there only because quarterbacks are currency in Super Flex leagues. You know, I don't think he has a true QB one ceiling really in fantasy football, just given his lack of mobility. But if you're in a Super Flex league, you know, he can give you some, some QB two seasons and be fine. And that's really what, you know, what you're, you're getting at there. He's going to be like a, from a production standpoint, what we saw out of like Andy Dalton for a lot of seasons, where it was fine and he had some spike seasons, but it's not anything that you're going to, you know, write home about. Yeah. I think that for me, I would go with the receivers over Mack Jones in that situation, just because I have concerns about job security, given how far he fell, given the track record of guys who are very similar to him. You know, I think that Ryan's concerns around the supporting cast are valid too. So like, I think that there are enough concerns where I'd rather, I'd go Devontae Smith for sure. I would go to Jalen Waddle pretty easily. And depending on where the running backs go, I think easily going with them as well. So like a late first round pick, is that fair for Mack Jones?  And we have these quarterbacks every year where they go under and it just so happens that like Josh Allen hit like crazy. And then Danny Dimes, we thought that he did, then he didn't.  So like he fits in that like category of these, you know, you can make the case like, I could sit here once the draft is over and probably make the case for like five to seven wide receivers to be drafted over Mack Jones in a super flex league.  Yeah, I think that's that's where I'd be sitting there personally is in a similar mold to them.  Ryan, I want to go to you. The Patriots were a cross-off for me in Daily Fantasy last year. I didn't want to use them. I think that can was like a defensible pick because the rushing was so good. But like the ceiling wasn't there outside of early on and then in week 17 didn't have a ceiling. Now you bring Mack Jones there. Is that going to change your view of this offense from a DFS perspective? Do you feel good about this offense or because for me personally I have a hard time getting very excited for DFS. Yeah, no, it's going to be an avoid for me. That's a no for me dog, Jim when talking about DFS. But the only intriguing thing that I could say would be, you know, Cam Newton being there, you're rushing upside. I mean, when they get inside the 20, inside the 10, inside the five, that guy's taking the ball. But they didn't play a lot. Him and Damian Harris didn't play a lot of games together because of Damian Harris not being starting the beginning of the season there. So if Damian Harris can get going, he's an intriguing piece for me because he was really seeing some red zone usage there towards the end when he was getting going and can break off some runs. He's a pretty stellar back and Sonya Michelle is not a guy you can trust. And so I would be intrigued from that standpoint of it, you know, especially when you're talking about touchdowns being king with FanDuel and putting him in there as the running back. So that's the only thing that I could really see. It's going to be hard to trust, you know, John new or Henry, at least to start the season. We'll have to see how things play out. But from that standpoint, yeah, you're like Brandon was saying, you can play him naked in good situations and then maybe the running back and that's about it. It's tough to go beyond that. Brandon, I want to talk to you about the Patriots in general because they have been a very buzzy team this year, given the free agency money they put in and now they have Mac Jones a quarterback. I am not super high on them personally from my wind projections. Where are you out at the Patriots right now? So Fox bet has them as a nine and a half win team. I'm also very glad that you're doing this. Jim freeze. Yeah. Okay. Jim first for a little bit. So I was like, wait, because you're literally asking me a question. Jimmy froze for a sec. You're back now. You're good. Go ahead. You don't need me. What was your I wasn't we need you actually. We do. I was saying thank you for pulling the wind total numbers from Fox bet because I forgot and then my internet died. So you're saving me double, I guess. Well, I mean, yeah, I'm just out here like looking at these overrunters. But yeah, I was surprised to see that number at nine and a half. I don't know. I feel like they're just getting that Patriots respect. But for me, I have them as an 8.3 win team. So they hit the over just 22% of the time, 78% then likely to go under. The under is minus 143 for what that's worth. But yeah, nine and a half seems really high. Middling schedule for me 17th should be favored in seven of their 17 games. So I don't know. I think the numbers too high. I would definitely be inclined to go with that under. I have 7.4 is the number I have.  So I would be inclined towards the under as well. It's largely because I still don't have a super high projection of their passing efficiency. The Raiders just went with Alex Leatherwood, the tackle or guard potentially from Alabama. So he goes pick 17. I think that with the Patriots, I just like it's tough for me to expect like this massive, massive uptick right away given the occasional importance of continuity. All that stuff. It makes it makes it tough for me to get super excited about them from a win total perspective. So I'm still pretty skeptical. Yeah. I mean, it's a 17 game season, but they got to win 10 games to get hit that over. That's from what we see. But what we saw from them last year, that seems pretty high. Okay. So let's put Alex Leatherwood in here on the Raiders. Obviously the offensive line very different for them now than it was previously. They got rid of Rodney Hudson, got rid of Gabe Jackson. They do still have Colton Miller at left tackle and Richie and Cognito as of now is going to be at left guard. They did resign in, but that's always a very fluid situation. So we put Alex Leatherwood at right tackle here. Go over here. That's actually a pretty impactful move. So they were 27th in my offensive line rankings. They're 24th. They moved up a decent amount, but JJ, I don't think that's going to be enough to make their backfield tempting for season long because they had Josh Jacobs, they bring in Kenyon Drake. It's still a net negative for the offensive line. It still seems like a nightmare to me. Do you disagree? Let me, I'll pull up my projections because to be honest, I don't think I've actually looked into what my projections said about these guys.   So it's not as bad as I thought it would be. And Kenyon Drake is like RB 30. And that's really mostly because Kenyon Drake is probably going to have an interesting receiving role in that offense. You know, Jacobs to me, though, doesn't have that ceiling that I look for. You know, he's like, he's going to be, he's going to end up being in that like dead zone of running backs that I generally avoid every year. And especially now, because he doesn't have the receiving upside, you need, you need, you need running backs to have that true receiving upside with Kenyon Drake there. And with how they've utilized Josh Jacobs up into this point, it's hard to be and it's hard to feel optimistic about Josh Jacobs all of a sudden becoming this awesome receiver. You know, we thought that we were going to see that to start last season in that game against Carolina. He goes off, he blows up and everyone's getting excited. He saw like a 15 or 18 percent target here or something in that game. And then it just didn't continue. And so it's really hard to back Jacobs, which is weird too, because him coming out of Alabama, you know, we thought that he was, oh, he would be a receiver at least, like at least he has that skill set, but they're just not utilizing him that way. And now they're definitely not going to with Kenyon Drake. Yeah, it's not as bad as it seems, I guess, because I think we kind of get in the LOL Raiders mode, and that will make Josh Jacobs look worse than he actually is based on that, but it's still, it's not fun by any means. So I have Las Vegas and Brandon, I think I'll probably be low on them. If I had to guess, actually, Sabrina's going to step out for a second, but we'll get back to you in just a bit. But for me, my wind total projections, I have them at 7.2. Oh, go ahead.  That's all. Oh, okay. I thought you were like, she's been going crazy for a while. Here's Miami's upper art. My Miami Dolphins are picking right now. I need everyone to be quiet. Tevin Jenkins. It's better not be a running back. Tevin Jenkins. Okay. So they go with the edge player. Was that the first defense alignment taken? It honestly might have been because I think it was. Yeah. Okay. So Jalen Phillips to be the first offensive line taken defensive line. Thank you. Where do I have my sheet? I could just control left, but that'd make things far too easy. I am going to control left. Miami does not go, does not go running back, which is what we were talking about earlier. So if you need evidence that John Sheeran, one of the guys over Fandall sports book is sharp with the draft, the overrunner for Jalen Phillips, 18 and a half goes 18. He was plus 115 to be the first defense alignment drafted. So hopefully something you made some money there. The dolphins do not go running back. As you mentioned, JJ, they still have a lot of picks though. So what's your level of comfort right now with Miles Gaskin? Because it seems like there are just a lot of obstacles to left to dodge here. Yeah. Look, I mean, again, this front office and the way they're running this team, they're fairly analytically heavy. I mean, that's why they go after a wide receiver earlier to boost that passing attack. And they're not going with the running back here, even though running back is technically a need. But like we say that running back is a need for Miami based on what teams have done historically at the running back position, right? Whereas Miami could be sitting there saying, yo, we just got production out of Savon Ahmed last year, right? Like when Miles Gaskin went down, Savon Ahmed was fine, right? And so they might be sitting there saying, why do we need to go out and get Najee Harris in the first round or even spend a second round, a high equity pick in the second round on a running back when they got this production out of these guys because their scheme is good. They feel good about it. They feel good about their line enough. Like it to me, I think they just realize the positional importance. And this is why I never bought into the idea that they were going to get one of these running backs in the first round, because it just didn't make sense based on what they've told us and what they've shown us, not told us what they've done via their actions. That's really what we need to be looking at whenever we're analyzing these teams. Yeah, I think that we need to take teams at their face. When you tell me what you are, I should believe you.  That's fine. But I think that they're investing in the right positions. They spent big a cornerback in free agency last year. They get a defensive lineman now to hopefully rush the passer. I have high opinions of this organization. We talked about their wind total projection earlier. I'm at 9.4 with them. I think it makes a lot of sense to be in on Miami here, right? And I want to go to you and talk to Miles Gaskin, because he talked to me before. He avoids another bullet. I guess for me, my bigger concern with Gaskin still lies later on. But I guess what was your overall vibe on Miles Gaskin last year as a DFS asset? Were you in on Gaskin at times? And would you be willing to go back to him this year if they decide to keep on ignoring this position? Yeah, I was definitely in on him. He was a DFS darling towards the latter half of the season when they were coming off of their buy. He was a Swiss Army knife. He could trust them in the run. He could trust them catching passes out of the backfield. And like I said, the red zone area was a field where they utilized him. And so when you're looking at a team, I love JJ bringing out Akamed because it was like just plug and play with these guys kind of, which I guess doesn't help Miles all that well. But I think they feel comfortable in what they have, right? And so you're talking about, like I said, field stretchers and it really didn't go into Will Fuller being here, but like Will Fuller and Jalen Waddle, like that is going to make life so much easier for Tua. And like I said, just moving the ball down there. And I just think that they, you know, you're looking at Miles Gaskin probably getting, you know, no more than 15, 17 touches a game, maybe. And that'll be fine, I think from a DFS standpoint, depending on where those touches can come from. So I love this for him. And if you have him, I would say hold him because I do think that this situation for Miami is going to be Will's up. Absolutely. I can also tell you that in my projections right now, I have Miles Gaskin at RB 21, which, okay, that's not bad. You know, like, like if nothing big, if nothing significant happens throughout this draft, Miles Gaskins, not only that, but like that has room for growth, right? That's still only with two, that's 213 rush attempts that could go up a little bit. That's a target share. That's not, you know, dramatically high. And the one thing I will say is they did get Malcolm Brown this off season. And so he's someone that can serve as that like more of a bruiser and that short yardage guy. And that really does match up well with what they have in Savanna Ahmed and Miles Gaskin who are smaller guys and might not be able to handle the huge workload or, you know, coaches might not see them as being between the tackle runners close to the goal line. That might limit his upside a little bit, sure. But at the same time, it might also be telling us, Hey, maybe they're just cool with these like very average running backs and sweet. Miles Gaskin, by the way, Miles Gaskin was not a bad prospect. He had insane production throughout college. I don't think he's that bad.  But if you just need like a bridge running back, if you will, you know, throughout your, for your dynasty squad, Miles Gaskin works. And right now, the direction that they're going without getting that running back in the first round with this class being as shallow as it is, I think that he's going to come out of this draft looking decent.  But I do think that with this class in 2021 and how things are looking and what teams could do here in the twenties at running back and in the early second round, he might be fine. He might be fine. I think I hope so. Cause he's fun. It was enjoyable to watch him last year and benefit from it in dynasty leagues where he was available on the waiver wire after week one. So that was enjoyable. Washington takes Jamie and Davis out of Kentucky. And I want to talk about Washington's offense. Another one defense here, but like, you know, it's our show, our rules. I want to talk about the offense here because Ryan Fitzpatrick is in town now. He joins Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, and just a really solid team with Antonio Gibson that running back as well. I am worried about the left tackle situation, but that's kind of the one check one red flag I have with his team remaining. So JJ Ryan Fitzpatrick seems more solidified as a starter north Washington because none of the quarterbacks fell. What is your outlook for them this year with the new weapons? What if I told you that my projections right now have a wide receiver one and RB one and a tight end one in this Washington offense. You've Terry McLaurin projected right now at wide receiver 11. It's just, I mean, it's a good spot form in general. You have Antonio Gibson who's projected at RB 12 right now. And then I have Logan Thomas who's projected at tight end nine, which tight end nine, it's really whatever. You know, it's not that amazing, but you know, Logan Thomas had a strong season last year and was able to capture a nice target chair. Curtis Samuel, you know, what I think is going to happen with Curtis Samuel is they're going to utilize him similarly to how they utilized him in his final year in Carolina with this coaching staff. So, you know, with the Ron Rivera coaching staff. And that because that year they utilize them more downfield, whereas he then went back to this like, you know, the way he used them at Ohio State, the way that they used them, you know, when he first entered the league, that's how they utilized him under Joe Brady and Matt rule this past season. But I think he's going to be more of that vertical threat for Washington, which will be, which will be solid, especially from a, from a best ball standpoint.    You know, when you're looking at projections at wide receiver, I should say this too. I know that I'm rambling a little bit, but when you're, when you're looking at projections for wide receivers, the difference between like wide receiver 27 to wide receiver 50 is not really that significant. Like there's, there's not that much differentiation between those players, whereas you're, you're going to see the differentiation at the top for sure. But there's just a giant, giant cluster there with those kinds of wide receivers. So, you know, you look at a wide receiver 46 ranking, or you look at like where I'm putting Devontae Smith and Jalen Waddle and such, or Jamar Chase, a lot of those guys are like the same. What you really should be doing is chasing where there's room for growth and whether that offense is going to be good or not. I think that you can at least make the case for Curtis Samuel.  I think being high on Gibson is smart, given the way they used him, especially like down the stretch last year, when he was healthy, they showed that they thought like, again, take teams at their word when they show you what they want to do. They showed us they viewed Antonio Gibson as being a three down back. We should believe them. Brandon Washington got some buzz from a wind total perspective because of the Ryan Fitzpatrick move. I like it for, for fantasy. I don't know how sold I am as far as Fitzpatrick being like a hyper efficient guy from a wind total projection perspective. So what are the numbers saying a Fox bet on the wind total? And what are your numbers saying about Washington? Yeah, so Fox bet has them as an eight and a half wind team, which is really now an eight wind team. What what has historically been like an eight wind team with the 17 game season minus 150 on the under, which is about, you know, that's my projections, my simulations are leaning on the under 7.9 wins for them, which makes them about 59% likely to go under. I'm with you. Uh, projecting out this offense is not necessarily a situation where I'm super optimistic. I bucket kind of just bucket the teams into expectations. They're in the in the bottom tier. Good defense project like projecting defense year over year. It is very hard. Typically, we see just like regression to simplify it. We see teams that really excelled take a step back just because of the way that defense works. So with all that, I do have the under as about 60% likely for Washington. I have 8.0 for Washington for this year. And that has two implications. The first one is not taking the over on them. But also, I feel like Dallas is a pretty good bet to win the NFC East. That's kind of the bigger takeaway for me because I have in my numbers a very high opinion of Dallas and not a super high opinion of literally anybody else in the NFC East as of right now, the Cowboys plus 105 to win the NFC East. Now that's not a short number. Like that's that's not a long number. That's a very short number plus 105. That's a little bit concerning. I don't know if I can go there, but I have then two wins better than ever the team in the NFC East. How are you doing Dallas relative to Washington in the East right now, Brandon? Yeah, so Dallas is their lines nine and a half wins. I have them at 9.8. I have them with I believe the easiest schedule. Yeah, the easiest schedule, they should be favored in 14 of their games, assuming all my numbers are correct, which, you know, at this point, I feel pretty solid with how things are coming out again. You know, it's not the most exciting to say I have this team for 0.3 wins above or below what they're projected, but you want it to be somewhat close. And so for Dallas, 9.8 wins. I think that they're pretty easily the class of the division. So I feel pretty good. I'm with you in favoring Dallas. So we're not super high on the wind total with Washington, but Ryan, I think we can be high for DFS because Ryan Fitzpatrick, despite all his flaws, potentially because of his flaws is very fun for daily fantasy. We talked about McLauren, we talked about Gibson. They're all DFS relevant. So what's your vibe on this team heading into this year? Yeah, this is again, this is going to be another team or guy who wins people a lot of money because you're going to be able to get the stacks right in certain situations, possibly against this team that we're talking about in Dallas, if they don't do anything to show up the secondary two times out of the year. So no, I think that Ryan Fitzpatrick, listen, he's a boomer bus quarterback, right? He's good and best ball, especially if you're taking the approach. If you don't get one of your top guys at the quarterback position and you want to have three guys to kind of choose from, he's a good late round target. But in DFS for sure, stacking in with guys like Logan Thomas and Terry McLauren or Terry McLauren and Curtis Samuel or even Antonio Gibson at times, if he's still catching passes out of the backfield, as we saw him do last year, target Miles Gaskin in that same way, it's going to be nice to target this team for sure. Absolutely. So it's a mixed bag for sure. Hard to be high on a journeyman old quarterback from a wind total projection perspective, but I'm okay with him in DFS until he proves me otherwise. Okay, the Giants pick is in at pick number 20. Oh my gosh, are you kidding me? Go ahead, JJ. Tell us your thoughts on this pick. Dave Gettleman. Dave Gettleman finally does something right. He trades down in a perfect position to trade down, and then he takes Kaderius Tony, who sure, he might have some sort of high ceiling if everything comes together. He has a good athletic profile. He's probably one of the best players in this draft with the ball on his hands, but you got to get the ball on his hands. He's one of the worst route runners you're going to find in this class. And his production profile is absolutely atrocious. It's not good. So here's the thing. I'll go back to what I talked about earlier. Non-early declares and guys who don't have good production in the first round have historically been not very good. And so I already mentioned the non-early declare stuff. Now I'm going to read off. Hang on. I didn't expect Kaderius Tony to go right now, so I got to find this. Troutman. Yeah. So if I look at in my model, first round picks who had negative stat scores. So I look at certain production metrics to get the stat scores. So less than or equal to zero. All right. Here we go. Let me read you. You guys ready for this? I'm very ready. Let me read you. Hit me. First round wide receivers with negative stat scores in my model since 2006. Rashad Perriman, Philip Dorsett, Kelvin Benjamin, Cordero Patterson, Darius Hayward Bay, Ted Gin, Craig Davis, Anthony Gonzalez, who's a fricking politician now, and Henry Rugs. That's the company- He's Craig Davis. That's the company that Kaderius Tony is in right now with this pick. Now I will say, I'm sorry. I got to do a projection. I know. I don't really care though. We're fine. This is better. This is great. I will say right now, New York has three very obvi- you know, Sterling Shepard can play the slot, Darius Slayton can play Flanker, and then you have Kenny Galladay playing the traditional X. And those three make a lot of sense together, right? I will say Sterling Shepard, I believe, can be cut next season. And so if you're giving Kaderius Tony a year to sort of learn how to play football, because by the way, he only played wide receiver for one season at Florida. He was like a utility guy through the first three years, which I generally shy away from those kinds of players too. He just has so many red flags in his profile. You can't deny what he can do with the ball in his hands, but that's really tough to translate, to flawlessly translate. You can't just assume you have a tirey kill. You know, I work in probability. I think there's a massive, massive gray area for these guys, but I will say that if there's one player in this first round, one wide receiver who has bust potential, it would be Kaderius Tony. And now that he's going to the New York Giants, I feel even more confident about that. I think the tough thing too is it's not just they took Tony, it's that they didn't address other positions that I feel are of need. And I think the Giants offensive line is an area of need. Andrew Thomas got better as the year went along last year. You know, it was a dumpster fire to start, but things did get better, which you expect for a very young guy left tackle. But even with that, they still rank 30th in my offensive line rankings. That's with Slater coming back too. So like, it's not a good situation for them. And they got rid of Kevin Zeitler. That's a part of the reason why they're so low in these line rankings. I feel like if they were going to address offense, if you're trying to give Daniel Jones a guy who loves taking sacks more than anybody outside of Carson Wentz, if you're going to try to set him up to succeed, give him a good offensive line, they chose not to do that. And that's concerning to me. And like if we're talking, we're updating our wind total projections live throughout the day, I'm not changing my projection of the Giants. They don't think it changes anything, honestly. I just, I don't see how it moves anything. So that's where I'm at. Brandon, does Kaderius, Tony, do anything for you as far, because I know you said receivers don't like moving the needle as much to begin with. No, from what I found, early receivers, this is probably just noise, but actually coincide with a decrease in year over year offensive efficiency. And that offensive, offensive efficiency for this study comes from Number Fires net expected points metric, which is adjusted for opponents faced. So kind of like what we we either see receivers taken in the first round or, you know, early, whenever teams, like if you if you need a quarterback or like a left tackle, you're not really taking wide receivers. And so we typically see receivers either be like game changers, and it doesn't really like it's different, or they're going to a good situation. And that team just naturally might take a step back anyway, because they're drafting based on what they did last year that was typically good. This is not going to bump up the Giants for me at all. If anything, you know, maybe a slight down tick, but you know, I'm with you, I'm not really going to change things for the better. And I've, you know, I do some prospect work a lot of the, a lot of what JJ said, much more passionately than I would. I see a lot of the same stuff. So, you know, maybe if it was a different receiver, but I, you know, Tony doesn't really rate out as someone who I would anticipate being like a day one game changer for the Giants. So a funny tweet I saw from Stephen Ruiz of for the win. Jason Garrett trying to figure out how to use Cadarius Tony should be good for some laughs. Yes, exactly. So JJ, with that in mind, what's your projection for Cadarius Tony in New York? If it matters. Yes. So this year I have Cadarius Tony at three receptions minus 45 years. No, I'm just kidding. I have him at 23 and a half receptions, 285 yards. And I believe I have him at four. I had to edit that was a screw up. It should be like two touchdowns in about two touchdowns. I actually, I actually had an edit with, with the touchdown portion that was attributed from Kenny Galladay to Cadarius Tony, which was not correct. So basically he's going to be like wide receiver 90. I mean, he's not someone that we need to really care about in a redraft league. Like I said, this is a move where they're not thinking about this year. I can guarantee you that I would not expect Cadarius Tony to be anything but a gadget player this year. And so that's kind of how I'm viewing him. Then if you can grow into something, you can grow into something, he has the athleticism. That's, that's for sure. I'm just very concerned about him just being a real wide receiver. This is not like even a Curtis Samuel situation. I think this is, this is even like, like more raw than what we saw at a Curtis Samuel coming out. I should also note that we're getting close to the total on offensive linemen in the first round. The total at Fandola Sportsbook was 18 and a half. We're at 14 through 20 picks and teams that have been rumored for offensive linemen like the Vikings are picking. We've got the Titans who could go wide receiver. The Steelers should go offense in some way. We might get to 18, over 18 and a half by like pick 27. It's going to be, it's a fun night for sure so far. Okay. The Colts pick is in. While we're waiting for that, Ryan, I want to go to you. We have the Giants here with Kenny Galladay, Sterling Shepherd, Darius Slayton, Saquon Barkley, Daniel Jones. But it's also Daniel Jones in a rough offensive line. So are you worried about target distribution with this team given how many mouths are out of feed now? Or do you think that Jones can be good enough to support more mouths in this offense? No, you're exactly right, Jim. That's the first thing I thought about was just, well, damn, where who's the ball going to go to? Because, you know, we, you look at last year, but it's hard to even project because Saquon Barkley gets hurt two weeks since the season, I believe, three weeks since the season. And he's a pass catching back. So this is going to be a pure avoid for me. You know, I was going to be excited about Daniel Jones, potentially late, if they drafted line to protect him. I mean, they don't have any pass blocking whatsoever, you know, to protect this guy. So it makes it really hard to kind of trust this offense in general from anything. I mean, I'm not excited about them from a best ball standpoint at this point, not excited about using them in DFS, not excited about using them in redraft. So it just kind of just sucks because I got like Kenny Galladay, I was very excited when he hit free agency to see where he goes. And it's like he might just go to die. It's rough. It is definitely rough. Quitty pay going 21st overall, the Colts, I was kind of hoping they would have gone with an offensive lineman. They need to have tackled pretty badly with Quinton Nelson sticking at left guard. They decided not to do that. They go Quitty pay and actually had a decent fall for pay. His total at Fandall Sportsbook was 16 and a half. The overall is minus 126. It was juiced up a bit there. He's also minus 115 to be the first defensive lineman taken. That did not happen. And this Colts team is a buzzy one Brandon because they got Carson Wentz. If I'm looking at their projected offensive efficiency next year, I have it going down because Phillip Rivers actually was really efficient. Carson Wentz was not. Now they lose Anthony Costanzo left tackle. I don't have the highest opinion of the Colts. I don't have the highest opinion of anyone in the AFC South personally, like I had the Titans first by default almost. But what do your internal projections say about this Colts team heading into 2021? Yeah, so I do have them taking a step back as well. They're over under on Fox bet is nine and a half, which makes sense. I have them at nine and a half. It feels a little high, but again, I like to make sure that it's not just based on what I'm projecting. So even with that step back in offensive efficiency, I don't think they're going to be bottom tier by any means, although based on what we saw from Carson Wentz, you never know. You know, I'm trying to adjust for expectation, not not overreact to, you know, a smaller sample. So I have them right at nine and a half. I would stay away from that. They got a lot of love last year. I know they were one of the most public teams them in the bills for the over last year, but middling schedule. Like I could kind of go either way. I don't really want to back this offense. I'm just glad you didn't make me talk about them from a DFS standpoint, because that was a nightmare this year. Yeah, outside of Jonathan Taylor, it was a nightmare for sure. But what did you say the juice was on the under at nine and a half? Oh, it's minus 143 in the over. Oh, because I have 8.9. And that might be high enough to tempt me to go with the under there, actually. So for the under, the under is plus 110. Okay. I don't find for that. I don't think that's too bad at all. So I'm actually kind of intrigued by the under for the Colts. And I mean, I think I would have jacked up their projected offensive efficiency a bit. Had they gone left tackle here, I did improve their defensive efficiency, but that doesn't factor in as much because it's harder to predict. So they're at 8.9. And the Titans are number one in the AFC South from me. They are at 9.3 wins. So 0.4 ahead of Indianapolis. The reason I can't feel super good about Tennessee winning the AFC South is that they've lost a lot of really good skill position guys. But JJ, you've been talking on Twitter this week about how they might amend that here with the 22nd overall pick. So what do you see in here with Tennessee at 22? Yeah. So I think that they're in prime position right now to either go Rashad Bateman or Elijah Moore. And I think the pick needs to be Elijah Moore. I tweeted about this earlier in the week that Tennessee is a perfect fit. I plugged in the 22nd overall pick into my model for Elijah Moore. And he actually came out as a 98th percentile wide receiver in my model with that 22 spot draft equity. And the only other wide receivers in my model that were drafted in the 20s, really in the first round. But if you remove the guys who were drafted early in the first round, but the only guys who were drafted in the 20s in the first round since 2006 that had that high of a percentile ranking Des Bryant and Demarius Thomas. So we're sitting in a position right here where if the draft capital is there for Elijah Moore, given his production profile, because pre draft, I don't really look at my model from a pre draft standpoint and say, this is how I'm going to rank these guys because draft capital is an input there. But it's just very, very, you know, you need the draft capital component. But with Elijah Moore pre draft, he actually was the top rated product from a production standpoint, the top rated wide receiver in my model because his production was that insane. So if he goes to Tennessee here where there's no wide receiver to really is Josh Reynolds right now. Yeah. I mean, it's a huge need for them. You have two really good wide receivers and Michelle Bateman and Elijah Moore. I just think that Elijah Moore makes a little bit more sense. And by the way, you would then have another reunion with AJ Brown and Elijah Moore. Can we get DK Metcalf there, too? Or is that not allowed? Probably probably wouldn't be smart. How did how are they not that they won like five games with with DK Metcalf, AJ Brown, Elijah Moore. There are reasons. Who was the quarterback that we used in you and XFL the FS Brandon? Who was it? Oh my goodness. I can't remember the name, but there were reasons also didn't all miss have some recruiting violations. What's that? Oh, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. I don't know if that was man. I wiped XFL from my memory for the best. Good grab. Good. Good grab from the brain. I just really I want this to be Elijah Moore really bad. I even tweeted at the Titans to draft Elijah Moore. I just hope it's him because all of a sudden if it is him, you can make the case for him being honestly, you can make the case for him being the wide receiver to a dynasty. I really, I really think that and the reason that I especially worry about the Titans specifically losing out on playmakers at their past games because Ryan Tane Hill has not always been the most fishing quarterback. They lost their play caller and Arthur Smith. There are multiple paths to this being a disappointing season. So I want to be low on the Titans, but because they're in the AFC South, my, my numbers still wind up liking them kind of by default because like, who else am I going to have graded? Well, they're not Houston, not Jacksonville yet. Indy's tough with Carson Wentz. So it's a tough situation overall. Roderick Adele walking up now, Elijah Moore, just be Elijah Moore. What does have this gift? It makes so much sense. Just like make it easy on me. I already started building it out in my projections. You might have seen it. I might have seen it. Don't tell me, Jim. I need to be. Can you erase it? Is it a wide receiver? Nope. Oh my gosh. Another position to need though, at least. So there's that. Wow. But we'll see what they do here once it's official. This will put the Vikings on the clock after this with a couple of good offensive linemen still lingering. So they are pretty happy about that. We'll see what the Titans do at 24. Roderick Adele getting the photo op. So it's my take of it.  Some actually rerunning things right now. Initially, initially I had them at 9.1, but I did want to bump down their offense a little bit more. It's probably going to change drastically because I'm not going to, you know, take them to. So I bumped them down. I have them at 9.3. 9.3 wins. Yeah. This is a joke.  They're over unders, nine and a half, minus 143 on the under. So, you know, more likely to go under. That's kind of where the bookmakers are leading. So I have about 60% to be under that. So probably would be not, not really inclined to bet that once more. They went with Caleb Farley, the cornerback from Virginia Tech who had a lot of injuries. And there was top 10 buzz, like ESPN and NFL Nation did a mock draft this week where he went eight overall the Panthers. They didn't go corner. They didn't go Caleb Farley though, likely seeming because of the medical stuff. So they do go cornerback and I'm going to bump up there. I know they lost Adory Jackson, but wasn't like the biggest contributor to them last year anyway. And they did add some other guys defensively. They got Bud Dupri to hopefully rush the pass a little bit. So once I add Farley, and they're still at 9.4, but like, I think that their pass defense should be a bit better this year than it was last year, partly because they were so bad. How could they not be? And I think that helps partially offset the losses on offense, but I think that the bigger implication of this and JJ, this kind of ties into what you were saying is I think that there is concern that they didn't address the skill position guys with this pick. Like, again, it kind of comes down to what they could have done instead. And that's where I get worried. Here's my thought on not going wide receiver there. I definitely think they should have, they could have gone Rashad Bateman too, who can play more all over the place.  I think he could go down like a Tyler Lockett, you know, career trajectory. But with, with, if they were to go with Rashad Bateman instead, then, you know, he can play on the outside and that would probably fit just as well. The one thing that I will say is this class has a lot of slot guys and they do need that. They lost Adam Humphries. So they don't really have that presence. So they, they realistically could just put Josh Reynolds as their, you know, the other outside across from A.J. Brown, let A.J. Brown gobble up 2,500 targets this year. And then, you know, throwing that, like there's a lot of slot guys. There's like Jalen Darden, who's that, this guy, like a shifty dude from North Texas with a lot of production. There's just, there's slot guys that you could find later in this draft and feel fine about. And the slot is more replaceable. To me though, Elijah Moore has more upside than just being that slot player. Like I said, my, my top comp for Moore is Tyler Lockett. I was really, really hoping that he would go to that offense because I mean, we've seen Tyler Lockett in a run heavy offense throughout his career. And we know that he can be efficient enough to still be fantasy relevant. And that's sort of similar to what we would be seeing then in Tennessee. Okay. So Ryan, J.J. set the over under 2,500 targets for A.J. Brown this year, which upgrades out to like 170 per game over under 170 targets per game for A.J. Brown this year in DFS. It's going to be tough. I'm leaning over, but I'm going to have to take the under there. No, yeah, but you're looking at, I mean, who are we talking about? The Lions with their, their wide receiver core. I mean, definitely atrocious because no A.J. Brown there. But like, I'm looking at this team and it's just like, what is going on with after A.J. Brown? Like who are you throwing out there? The only other guy that I actually trust is Anthony Firks are tied in with this, with this core. I was with J.J. 100%. I thought Elijah Moore just made such a good replacement pick for Corey Davis there with them. But yeah, this is wheels up for A.J. Brown until they do something else that you're talking about slot receivers, J.J. I mean, maybe we see like a guy like a Mari Rogers go later to them. And I would feel good about that. But at this point in time right now, it's all the A.J. Brown with this current situation. And I will say too, I think A.J. Brown deserves to be in the conversation. I mean, he has the wide receiver one ceiling in his range of outcomes this year. And he's like, my projections have met like wide receiver six or something right now and his ADPs probably like six to eight or whatever. But realistically like that, again, the way I approach this is I look for guys who have some sort of ceilings that's not just embedded into their projection in some way. And with A.J. Brown, I have met like a 28% target share. Don't get me wrong. But you know, in an offense that lacks any other real locked in guys, skill guys outside of Derek Henry, obviously, but I'm talking receiver wise. In an offense like that, that's when crazy ceilings can be hit. And I'm talking like 33% target shares like we saw to Michael Thomas a couple of years ago, like we saw out of DeAndre Hopkins when he was in Houston, when Will Fuller would get injured or, you know, where you don't have this competition, that's where ceiling can really get hit. So if there is competition, good wide receivers will see a floor no matter what, when there's no competition, that's when those crazy ceilings, Devonte Adams last year, that's when those ceilings can be hit. Yeah. And another thing too is like, for a while, Jim and I would talk about this like kind of week in week out, Corey Davis was awesome.  So like that's a big piece.  No, I love that point there, Brandon, because I was he was like interchangeable and he would be like $2,000 cheaper than AJ Brown, and you would get those boom weeks from him. And it would be awesome. He'd be like 16% owned in DFS because of AJ Brown just carrying that name, wait, but yeah, he's going like wide receiver, I believe, for right now and best ball, which makes a ton of sense when you're thinking about the given situation. You know, ahead of the Andre Hopkins and Justin Jefferson and McCaff and Ridley. So unless something drastic changes, I think that he's going to stay around that with an ADP of like 18.4 right now. Okay, so we have the Vikings pick in here, they traded down from pick 14 with the Jets and offensive line, definitely a need here for Minnesota, given that they have some some concerns, some question marks on the left side. They do address those by taking Christian Derisaw out of Virginia Tech, 23rd overall, I thought he could have been their pick at 14, honestly. No, he's coming. No, she's coming. It's official. No, no, Ted and Jenkins, man. They get 23rd round picks. They move back 23. They get an upgrade along the offensive line. I think the Vikings played this one really well. So kudos to them. I want to stick with Tennessee for a second here. Ryan, I want to go back to you. Do you worry at all about Derek Henry? Because Derek Henry is a run first running back, which means he's being positive script. And with the lack of skill guys around him, the odd sees in a negative script do increase a bit. Does that worry you at all about Derek Henry? Or is it just Derek Henry and we're good? Jim, all this offseason, we're going to see the workout videos Derek Henry is working on his pass catching ability. So I mean, if he can add that facet to his game, that would be and it's not even like I don't think Derek Henry is he's not a pass catching back, so to speak, but I don't think he has terrible hands. They just don't target him. They don't they don't design anything for him. But there might be a situation here where Derek Henry is going to need five or six targets a game to move the ball. He's getting to that point where the wear and tear does start to worry. But man, I've been so down on Derek Henry year after year after year. He keeps just breaking the mold. You got to talk to Brandon about this because I wouldn't know anything about fading Derek Henry at all. It was on the wrong side of week six. I was I was not I was not on the right side, but I was you know, it was it was rough for sure. It worked for about four and a half quarters. Yeah, four and a half quarters and then overtime happened. It wasn't good. Yes, but he's a great DFS target when he's not popular. The Colts game was perfect because no one was on him there. Projected tag game script. They're not going to fall behind. I wouldn't think there. It was the perfect scenario to use Derek Henry. And like a lot of times on stretcher was too, but like that that game especially goes to what you said where he was not that popular web berserk, which is always within his range of outcomes. Yes. Okay, JJ, the Steelers pick is in pick 24. You have the Steelers to take a running back plus 125. That is our final bet I lost. Brandon was right. Ryan was right.  So we'll see if we go three for one or three for four with me, the lone anchor on the lineup, you stick with Najee here. Yeah, I think it's going to be Najee. I mean, like I said at the top, you know, all these Pittsburgh media people have been saying it's likely going to be Najee. You know, Kevin Colbert came out and said that he doesn't really believe in positional value. And you know, if a player is good, a player is good, that kind of mentality a very Dave Gettelman like mentality. It's just it's mind blowing to me that that people in those positions can think that way because I don't think it's logical at all how you don't look at positional importance first and have that layer at least before you dig in. They need running back. They definitely need a running back. I think that like, let me put it this way. The Steelers do likely you should try to get one of the big three running backs because they don't have anything on their depth chart right now. And it makes sense. Like I get it. My frustration and I don't really care that much from a Steelers fandom standpoint. Like, yeah, I grew up loving the Steelers. It's not really there anymore. The way it used to be. I just don't like the journey they took because this this this should have been seen. They should have known that this was happening. Let me just see what they do here though. All right. Pick 24 Steelers. Najee Harris over under was 24 and a half minus 110 on the both ways. He is the pick. So Najee Harris goes to Pittsburgh. JJ has left us and I guess the three of us. So JJ wins his bet. But it's a first round running back. I lose.  So why am I here? Najee Harris goes to Pittsburgh. JJ your reaction to that. I mean, I got up for a reason. It's just like it's it's not logical. It's not logical. The Steelers have so many holes across the offensive line. Jim, I think you might have had them ranked as the 32nd offensive line in the league. I moved it because the Dolphins traded Eric Eric Flowers. So it pulls up here. They are they're actually 29th. I had something. They're bad. The offensive line is bad. They're bad. The offensive line is bad. So bad in fact that last season they had to tailor their passing offense also to this bad offensive line, which was a key reason why Deontay Johnson had this low a dot and they kept throwing these quick slants because they had to make up for this horrendous offensive line. Now Ben Rothenberger wasn't perfect. I'm not not not blaming him, but the offensive line was terrible. They got no push for their running backs. It's just a bad pick to think that Najee Harris that a running back is going to transform this backfield and this team and make them be able to run the football well. Like is it in their range of outcomes? Sure. And when Najee Harris, let me just put it on the record. Najee Harris will put up numbers. He's going to put up numbers. He will produce because he's going to see a lot of work in that backfield. I'm going to make his projection here in a second and I'm sure he's going to be like a low end RB one or a high end RB two. That's not the argument against this. The argument against this is what you could have had otherwise and what that production could have looked like with a more replacement level running back in that backfield and getting that kind of volume instead of Najee Harris. Now, I don't think it's as bad as some other first round running back picks that we've seen in the Pat Reese industry. This is 24 overall. It's different than Seyquan Barclay. It's different Seyquan Barclay. It's different than even like to me, it's it's different than even what we saw with like Rashad Penney and Josh Jacobs. Like Josh Jacobs didn't really make that much sense. They weren't a win now team. They just had an extra. You know, it was their third first round picks. They were like, sure, we'll get this running back at least for Pittsburgh. They have an absolutely horrendous depth chart. And this is a shallow class where they likely weren't going to be able to get one of these big three backs. So I can at least understand the logic. I just don't think I think that they would have been way better off by going online here and a month ago, signing Leonard for net or something, like getting it, getting just a bigger body guy who can carry the workload and be maybe averaged to above average and then see if a guy like Trey sermon falls in this draft to them and then get a guy like sermon as well. But this is obviously the direction they went in. I'm going to make a projection. He's going to look good to my projections. That doesn't mean that he was a good real NFL pick. I think you misspoke. It's it's Lombardi Lenny. He's not Leonard Ford. Sorry. Sorry about that by the proper name. Yes. Brandon, I had a pretty drastic change with Pittsburgh and my wind total projections. They went from 8.6 to 8.6 with Najia Harris being the pick. Where are you out on Pittsburgh right now? Yeah. So again, you know, when I looked into stuff over the past 10 years, I guess with nine years, you do see like offenses improve when they take a running back early, but this doesn't really feel like one of those situations where it has happened 64% of time. It doesn't really feel like this is something that's going to make them significantly better. They might increase a little bit. They weren't a bad offense by any means. But yeah, for me, I'm not really going to make much of an adjustment there. They are an eight and a half win team according to Fox bet with minus 125 on the over. I have them at nine wins. It was a little high, you know, based on my expectations, I figured they would be closer to that eight and a half. But, you know, if you look at their schedule, I have them with the toughest schedule in the NFL. But I just added this on the fly. But they have eight games projected to be within three points either way. I use a two-point home field advantage. So, you know, it's kind of a lot. Could kind of kind of go either way. But even though my simulations say over, you know, I think it's a no bet. It's no bet to me. Pretty easily. Ryan, we have Najee Harris now. He goes to Pittsburgh. Like JJ said, probably going to get a lot of work. Where do you think Najee Harris shakes out in the best ball ADP once we have the dust settling here after the draft? Do you think that he will go appropriately or are you worried about him being overvalued with his new team? I'm worried about him being overvalued right now. I think he's going at the running back 19 spot before this started. So, I could see people talking themselves into taking him, you know, closer to a running back one or, you know, first in the running back two scenarios because of this landing spot. Just being the Steelers and how they how running backs produce, you know, under this regime, so to speak. So, he's in a good spot. And listen, the thing that worries me about Najee Harris is that he had one of the best O-lines in college and now goes to, he does not. It's often 20 college might have been better than the one he is now. Exactly. A lot better. The 29th, as you said. So, and, you know, the Castro could be gone next year. So, it's going to be real tough for him potentially.  I think that he, you know, definitely does make some sense as long as Ben Rothesberger is still there. As we've seen, you know, even with him getting older, he can do some things with the football when he's on. So, you know, hopefully they can address something on the line, you know, maybe later on and try and get this figured out. I still like getting him. Where he is right now is fair. I think later on in the summer, once the dust settles down after the draft, I think he'll go back to maybe being closer to the 19 range in some drafts. And that's when you can feel comfortable about it. But right now, if you're studying best balls, you know, next week and excited for them, I think that Najé will go way overdrafted than he needs to be. So, RB 19 sounds like the pre-draft ADP. JJ, where do you have Najé Harris settling out in your projections? Yeah. So, I have it a little bit conservative. You know, I'm not, I don't think that he's going to be projected to be an RB one. And you have to keep in mind that when you go into a season, we're working with perfect information where all these running backs are healthy, right? And so, there's a lot of good running backs actually out there, just that guys get hurt, et cetera, et cetera. My fear with Najé is that the Steelers in neutral game scripts over the last seven years have been very past heavy. And I don't know if that changes dramatically. It's going to change to some degree with Najé. But I, you know, we see natural regression with defenses every year. And that's likely going to happen with Pittsburgh. They're probably not going to be as good defensively as they were last year. So, that could put them in worse spots. You know, Brandon mentioned the schedule. So, there's reasons to believe that Pittsburgh won't be as strong. So, they won't see these like awesome positive game scripts for a player like Najé Harris. So, my projection right now has him at 1,012 yards, about 10 touchdowns on the ground, 40 receptions, 300, because he is a good pass catcher too. Everyone thinks he's kind of like a bruiser, but he did a lot of good stuff through the air at Alabama. 319 receiving yards, one and a half touchdowns through the air. Positional rank right now, I have met RB-18. So, right smack dab in the middle of that RB-2 range, which I think is fair right now. Like I understand that the ceiling could potentially be there, but I'm still giving him a 59% rush share in this projection. I'm still giving him an 8.5% target share. You know, if there's more to that as we, you know, move through the summer, I do think there's more of a ceiling than what his projection is showing right now. But, you know, from a projection standpoint right now, draft night day one, that's where Najé Harris is at. So, we have the 25th pick in for the Jacksonville Jaguar. It's a very important time because Trevor Lawrence's brother Chase is, oh, the Jaguar is from Travis Etn. Oh, okay. So, James Robinson gone. Chase Lawrence, as you can see on the screen here, loving his life. He is someone who does not have James Robinson on his dynasty. I got to say, I got to say, guys, I traded James Robinson for a first like a month ago in the Dynasty League and I'm loving life right now. Oh my God. I'm loving life right now. That's amazing. But we also get Trevor Lawrence reunited with Travis Etn, which is great. That's fun. You know, we're not going to be jumping up and down for a first round running back, but I love a good story. Travis Etn, fun player. I would say a guy who can potentially actually increase your offensive passing efficiency a tiny bit. So, you know, it's kind of fun. JJ, what did your model say about Etn coming into the draft? Like him a lot. You know, he's part of the big three after his weigh-in actually, because he weighed in. He drank a ton of water clearly before he weighed in and he weighed in at 215 instead of like the 205-ish 210 that he played at. So, he weighed in at 215 and that's the objective measure that I have to use my model and my model cares about BMI or running back. So, when he weighed in there, he actually became the RB1 in my model pre-draft. You know, landing in Jacksonville versus Najee and Pittsburgh, you know, since it was so close between those two backs, I actually had Najee as my RB1 pre-draft rankings wise. You know, I'm still going to have Najee RB1, but you know, Etn's RB2. And I think, you know, what we're seeing here is James Robinson is not a thing. And this is something that I really, I mean, I'm not just saying this in hindsight. I've been talking about this throughout my podcast literally all off season where we have to recognize that with new coaching staffs and with the fact that coaches are the ones who are throwing running backs on the field. And you hope that the best, most talented running backs, you know, rise depth charts. But at the same time, James Robinson, who I loved as a prospect, I thought he should have been drafted, you know, I gobbled him up everywhere last year. Again, I'm sounding like I'm just patting myself on the back, but I'm letting you know that I like James Robinson. But when you have all of these changes going on to an organization, you have to fear that a UDFA at running back, despite the fact that he did as well as he did, is going to see some competition of some sort. Right. And so I thought that maybe they would get like a Kenneth Gainwell, like a pass catcher on the team to compliment James Robinson. But they, they did get a pass catcher, but they also got a guy who could carry the ball 200 plus times as well and Travis Etn. So James Robinson stock way, way down, Travis Etn's fairly strong, you know, pretty good. I don't think it'll be Najee Harris like, but I'll make a projection now and we'll see what happens. Yeah. I mean, the reunion tour continues too, because the Clemson guys back together as well. Ryan, you were talking about about James Robinson before and this offense being kind of fun for DFS. And I think the fun thing about about Etn specifically is that he's going to catch passes, which means either the Jaguars fall behind, he's still going to be involved. So what are your thoughts on Etn going to Jacksonville from a DFS perspective? Yeah, I like it. I mean, you know, we're talking about draft capital and landing spots. And so we got to believe that this guy's going to be on the field and going to make life a little bit easier for Lawrence having played together for the years now and then being reunited at the NFL level. So I think that he's going to get work, you know, right out of the gate. James Robinson, when we're talking about best ball here, this guy's ADP was around 31, I want to say. So that is just shot for anybody who took James Robinson prior to this. And I believe Etn was going as RB 21, if I'm not mistaken, in best balls. And so you got to feel good about that. They're probably teams that have both. Sure, right? Yes, definitely. And not even knowing what the situation was going to be. But yeah, from a DFS standpoint, especially, you got to think like rookie running backs too, they're real cheap to start the season. So we could get, you know, a good deal on Etn to start the season. I'm into it. I'm into it. I like it for sure. Should be a lot of fun. The Browns, their pick is in right now. They I believe had Greg Newsom and a lot of the mock drafts going to them pull up the mock drafts here for Cleveland. Actually, that Jamie and Davis, who's gone and Christian Barmore, Christian Barmore could be the guy they cut Sheldon Richardson, but we'll see what they wind up doing. But Etn's pretty fun. I think I can definitely get behind this. Jim, what's her line look like? Did you talk about that? It's not.  Like that's that that's the best way I'd phrase it. Like there's no one who's a dumpster fire. No one who's great. 20 second to me. Okay.  JJ, what do your projections say about Etn? Yeah, my TV just went out. I'm trying to figure that out. So so Etn I have 8888 rushing yards, 4.8 rushing touchdowns, 55 and a half receptions for 423 receiving yards, two receiving touchdowns. That gives them a positional rank right now of RB 22. That sounds a lot like Deandre Swift. That is my comp actually for Travis Etn is Deandre Swift. That's that's the kind of role that I think I haven't for a 12% target share in this offense. I think that's the kind of role that he's going to play for Jacksonville. Yeah, I think that that makes a lot of sense. And Etn, I know like again, we're not supposed to get super jacked about running backs in the first round, but Etn's fun. I think I can get more excited about him than other ones. Bethany Peter says the ice bath narrative lives. Love it. There's a lot of there's a lot of school connections in this draft, I feel like. Okay, so who are some Oklahoma guys and get a baker? We'll figure that out and see what we can work with there. But the pick is in for the Browns. Could use some past defense help. And they go, Greg Newsom, go cats, baby, two Northwestern Wildcats in the first round, Greg Newsom, the cornerback. And when I was making my win projections for Cleveland, the big, like if I have, uh, with conditional formatting, because I have to, there's no obligation to give a spreadsheet. Yes, be conditionally formatted. The only like big red marks for Cleveland are past defense. They were really bad there last year. Part of that's because you had the injuries, Sidenza, Warden, greedy Williams, and a great Delpit as well. But now you add some great help at safety in free agency.  And I feel like that's actually a reasonable way to address a thing that I deemed to be a negative for them last year. So I had Greg Newsom into this defense and change the past defense. The wind tunnel projection stays the same, but it actually is decently high at 9.3. That's what I have for Cleveland right now. Brandon, I'm guessing that's probably in line with Fox, but I would guess they're not a nine and a half type team. Is that correct? Exactly. Okay. With minus 143 on the over. But I'm with you exactly over then, which stinks. Yeah, I'm with you. The 9.3 wins is what I got for me. So 56% likely to hit the under not enough to really want to go after that a lot, but they do have the 30 easiest schedule now. This is all adjusting. I think I said someone else had the 30 easiest schedule, but it all adjusts throughout. But they should be favorite in 12 games, which is pretty substantial. And just five three point game project, three point games projected. So maybe some some easier wins for Cleveland, which makes sense with the juice on the over, but I'm thinking with you, 10 wins. Yeah, I'm probably not there yet. No, I can't I can't bet the over, but I think I buy into the hype around the total there. Like I think that that's a very fair number is the way I phrase it. So not going to the over, not going to the under either. And I think that's worth saying when it would not in the half is a big number. And if I'm not going towards the under there, I think that does say a lot. Now, Ryan, they're kind of running it back here because Jarvis Landry is there. We've got Odell Beckham coming back. Nick Chubb is there. Cream Hunt is there. It is a lot of mouths, but it's also a lot of fun. We saw Baker may feel get better down the stretch last year. So what's your view of this Browns offense heading in 2021? Draft Nick Chubb everywhere because it's so tough to trust Baker. But no, it should be fun. I mean, listen, they definitely see a window of opportunity. I think in the in the division that they're in, I think they believe that they can compete. So it's going to be exciting to even see what this offense can do with Odell Beckham.  Jarvis Landry was dealing with some injuries, so to speak. And outside of that, the wide receivers, there's no real competition for him at all. But I do think that it starts, you know, especially with Stefanski being there. It starts and ends with the running back situation. So I love getting Nick Chubb as a part of this offense and what they're doing because as when the defense gets better, that means that they're going to have, you know, more possessions and that's going to lead to them just being able to take control of the football more. And that was the concern with Nick Chubb was that they would fall behind and Cream Hunt would take away some of the passing game work. And obviously Cleveland fans, including a fan to his own Gab Gowdy or Gabby Gowdy, very excited about Greg Newsom going to Cleveland. Always love to see that for sure. Brown's fans, Northwestern fans lockstep on this one as well. JJ, let's go to you. I always had issues with Nick Chubb because of the split with Cream Hunt. I will say, though, that down the stretch last year, I'm not sure if this is because they needed to win games. They were more willing to commit more to Nick Chubb, but I became much more willing to go towards Nick Chubb because it seemed like they were using it more in the passing game, which is just, it's huge for his projection. But now you will add Oda Beckham. What is your view of Chubb heading in 2021? I mean, you're really hoping for, you know, Derek Henry, I should say this, I'm saying you're hoping for Derek Henry, but Nick Chubb kind of is a Derek Henry type running back where the efficiency is going to be there. He'll probably see goal line rushes. I know there were times last year where they just decided to use Cream Hunt a lot at the goal line, which was obnoxious.  Right now, my projections have him at RB nine. So he's right there. That's actually higher than I would have. Like if you'd give me an over under, I would have said it was higher than I expected to whenever I saw it. But again, this is, this is assuming, you know, he's able to play 17 games, you know, those kinds of running backs, maybe he's not able to because he's going to carry a bigger workload than some of the more receiving backs. But, and that's only with like 22 receptions. So like he's sitting there with like a 13 rushing touchdown projection because again, extra game, it's a run heavy scheme. It should be an effective scheme. So I'm cool with him. I like him more probably in best ball a little bit just because you're not getting that receiving floor each week. But yeah, he's good. I'm sweating this Ravens pick right now like crazy because I do not want them to get a wide receiver. So I want them to get Tevin Jenkins. I've said Tevin Jenkins for six or so different teams by now and it hasn't happened. So I should probably give up, but they did just trade away Orlando Brown, Orlando, I almost said Orlando Bloom, Orlando Brown Jr. to the Kinston and cheese last week, which gives them an additional first round pick. They can go wide receiver and offensive line and JJ we saw. I think I saw a lot of a shot Bateman ties to Baltimore early on that became terrorist Marshall, but now a terrorist Marshall's medical concerns. Those seem to have gone down a bit. So what are you thinking here with with ball? No, they showed Elijah Moore. I know I don't need this in my life. This is this is so I went on a rant on the late round podcast that published today talking about why landing spot at the outliers does matter. And with Lamar Jackson being the starter for Baltimore for the next three years or plus, right? Like you would, you would assume from you safely could project them to be the starter for the next three years or so they're going to still be a run heavy team. Like we can say, Oh, they'll add a wide receiver. So they're going to be more past heavy. Number one, why they've been a top 10 offense both the last two years and number two, Jim's, Jim's giving me a smirk. Like they went with a wide receiver. Here we go. They're picking right now. Sorry. Did they really just know, but it's, it's, it's got to be Bateman. Yeah. So they showed Rashad Bateman's like his, his watch party. There was someone there and a Carson Wentz Eagles Jersey. I feel like the NFL should have given Rashad Bateman like an advance on his first paycheck so that they wouldn't have to wear the, the Carson Wentz Eagles Jersey. Like get him like a Kirk Cousins Jersey. I don't know. He's in Minnesota. Like let's, let's get something other than Carson Wentz on at least the, uh, the over five or over four and a half wide receivers just hit. True. There is that. Okay.  John Harbaugh has come out and said, we are going to, we're not going to change our offense because Kurt Warner says we should change our offense on NFL network. You know, they're going to probably be a little bit more past heavy, but they don't change their offense, but you teams don't change their offense so drastically based on one player. Now everyone's going to sit here and say, well, what about Josh Allen and the bills last year? They got Stefan Diggs and they became this past heavy team. Sure. But the bills were not doing what the Ravens are doing right now before last year happened. Sure. They were run heavy and they also saw the biggest jump in quarterback efficiency that we've really ever seen in NFL history. So it's not a comparable situation to me at all. Like if you have Lamar Jackson, you're not going to ask him to drop back to pass, you know, at a middle of the road rate in the NFL, you're going to want him to use his legs and gain expected points, gain points. I shouldn't be that nerdy while talking about this, but gaining points with his legs and being efficient with his legs because that's been effective for Baltimore. So it doesn't make any sense to me to not ding a wide receiver in this case for shot Bateman, who was my wide receiver to entering this draft. Now, depending on landing spots, he could easily fall to my wide receiver six or so. And I know people are going to say, I'm sorry, I'm ranting so much. But like people will sit, people have said, you know, well, AJ Brown a couple of years ago, everyone dinged him in his situation. Number one, AJ Brown in hindsight hit, right? We know that AJ Brown is a top five to 10 wide receiver in this league. And so AJ Brown hits. If I were to know for a fact that Rashad Bateman would be AJ Brown, yeah, he would be probably my wide receiver one in this class. Right. And so we have that information now. And then on top of that, you know, when AJ Brown went to Tennessee, Marcus Marriota, Jim's boy was quarterback.  We knew that I will mute you. I don't know if I can, but I'll try. We knew that a change could happen, right. And it did happen. But instead of that change, that ambiguity being a plus for AJ Brown, it was a knock, understandably so. But the quarterback situation is not changing in Baltimore. We're going to have this situation likely in the foreseeable future. And that's why landing spot can and will and should matter for Rashad Bateman. I'm going to make his projection.  But that's my that's my rant. Well, I think the good thing is that it benefits Lamar Jackson to have Rashad Bateman there because that's a separate issue. It increases his projected offensive passing efficiency. And Ryan, we like Lamar Jackson and DFS when he's throwing to Willie Snead. Now he gets to throw to Marquis Brown, Rashad Bateman, Mark Andrews and Sandy Watkins. I feel like even though it's a bad landing spot for Rashad Bateman, Lamar Jackson is a winner in this dynamic. Yes, absolutely. 100% he is. And so, you know, you're looking at a guy who's, you know, the passing numbers aren't great, but he's going to be explosive on the run. And he's going to make, you know, life harder on DFS to come after him. And so, Rashad Bateman gets open. That's just going to be even better. I mean, surround this guy with weapons. That's what we've been begging for, you know, instead of running out Willie Snead and Nick Boyle and two tight insets with Mark Andrews, like give him somebody who's dynamic. It's going to be tough. It's going to be tough to trust this offense outside of Lamar Jackson. I mean, the running back situation can't trust it because Lamar is there. Wide receivers can't trust it because Lamar didn't necessarily can't throw, but he's a dynamic enough player where now that he has another surefire weapon on the outside that he can trust, I think this even furthers his upside ability when we're talking about DFS. Well, I'm glad that you mentioned running back too because I felt like I was going insane last year because everyone loved JK Dobbins. I didn't. I could never really talk myself into it because the targets weren't there and targets are so big for DFS. I felt like I was just going nuts because everyone liked him so much and I just couldn't quite get there. Brandon, I know you were in that same boat as well. I want to talk to you about wind projections though because Baltimore, I think gets a boost up because again, he's not throwing to Willie Snead anymore. They get Kevin Zitler along the offensive line as well. They did lose Orlando Brown, but they could address that here in a couple of picks. So I actually have Baltimore at 9.8. That might be under their total because they're probably pretty high, but I don't want to bet the under regardless. You've been at 9.8 wins? Yeah. Yeah, that's under. By a lot? Yeah, it's 11.5. Oh. The under is minus 143, but it's a pretty substantial gap. 11.5 is big. Yeah, it does feel big, even with that extra game. Where do you have them? I have them. So they have a bottom five schedule, not a whole lot of close games. I have them with a really good offense, obviously. And I scale back defense to the league average, but they'll give them a better defense overall. And so for me, they did come out at 11.5, which was really surprising to me. But again, a big part of that is going to be factored into the bookmakers like them to the point where they've got good super boards, high win total. That's not the whole equation. I'm not just trying to match that, but I use that to make sure that I'm not completely off base with my assumptions. So I was surprised to see them match that 11.5. But again, with the schedule being what it is, it makes some sense. And again, if I was projecting a team, when I'm manually adjusting things, if I see a very efficient offense and a defense that we should probably assume is not good in a flukey sense, it's the best combination for me. So again, a little high, but that's where I am. I'm confused why I'm so far from the number on this one, because I have them as the eighth best offense and sixth best defense. And somehow I wind up way under the total. It's weird. Right. Like they're one of the few teams that I feel good about saying, look, their offense is not going to be terrible, even though they're a run heavy team. And that's not usually what we look for with efficiency. But they are an outlier. They run the ball efficiently. And we're not against, like when we talk about this on the heat check, we're not against teams that run the ball. Right. We're just against teams that run the ball very inefficiently. So that's the difference. Like LeGarret Blunt is different than Lamar Jackson slash JK Dobbins. Right. So yeah, I mean, it's surprising to me to find that we're rating them similarly, but that you do project them differently. So it might have a lot to do with how you project their schedule on the teams that they play. I'll dig into it overnight to see why, because I feel I'm confused by that. The Saints are the defensive linemen. Peyton Turner, a guy that Adam Schafer tweeted about this morning. If Adam Schafer tweets about it, I know like the Mack Jones thing happened. But again, if Adam Schafer tweets it, you should believe him. But that's a defensive guy. So JJ, let's go back to you. Let's talk about this projection here for Rashad Bateman. With the Ravens, what do you see him doing in a run first offense? Yeah. So I mean, look, I gave the Ravens a little bit of a bump from a pass to rush ratio standpoint. It wasn't overly significant. They're still an under, you know, they're still going to run the ball more than they'll throw it this year, because they've done over the last two years, but it's more aggressive towards throwing than it has been over the last two years. So at least take solace in that. And then I gave him a pretty aggressive target share number only because, you know, I want to see what that, you know, this is with an 18% target share, which is a pretty strong number for a rookie. And that's within an offense with Mark Andrews, Mark East Brown. Mark East Brown takes a hit from this. You know, it's really tough to buy into Brown in general, just because, you know, we saw him last season have a 35% target share down the stretch and he still didn't give you a single wide receiver one performance, but projection wise, Rashad Bateman 54 catches 677 yards, five and a half touchdowns. Again, this is six or this is 17 games. He's wide receiver 55 for me. And that's with a fairly aggressive target share number. That's with, you know, me assuming that he's going to be the number two target behind or number three, I guess if you count Andrews too, but, you know, Hollywood seeing a little bit more volume and then him seeing significantly more than Sammy Watkins, who's now in Baltimore too. So to me, I just don't see the ceiling. I think that that he'll give you spiked weeks and he's a very good wide receiver who can line up all over the field. He was my wide receiver to pre draft, but it's very, very hard for me to see him have like a true wide receiver one ceiling in that offense. I just don't think it's possible in that offense. So JJ Packers pick is in. How excited would you be if it were Elijah Moore, cybernetically? Yeah, I mean, or Terris Marshall or Rondale Moore. I mean, if they want to go Rondale, I mean, I think Elijah Moore is an obvious, obvious pick here because he can, like I said, he can play the slot. They have a slot need right away. You know, you could still throw MVS out there or Alan Lazare to stretch the field and then have Devonte Adams play the X and then you can get Elijah Moore to play a little bit more on the outside when Devonte Adams goes in line. I think Elijah Moore would make a ton of sense to Green Bay and it would totally redeem the fact that Rashad Bateman just went to the freaking Baltimore Ravens. Well, we'll see what happens here with the Packers. We'll see if Aaron Rodgers can be appeased because there was a lot of buzz earlier today that Rodgers maybe wants to be traded by the Green Bay Packers. Maybe this is not going to happen, but maybe they go quarterback. They're not going to quarterback, but pick 29 here for Green Bay. We'll see how things shake out. We do have just a couple of picks left in this draft for tonight. Again, we're back here tomorrow at 7 p.m. Eastern, Fandle, YouTube, Twitch, Facebook, and Twitter, 7 p.m. for rounds two and three. A lot of impactful stuff is happening then. We'll have plenty of time to discuss how we're seeing things shake out from a dynasty ranking perspective. We talked about the quarterbacks before. JJ, we know the landing spots for ETN and Harris. Just those two not counting the wide receivers. I'll give you more time to formulate that. How would you rank ETN and Harris for dynasty right now between the two of them? I'm going to go Harris and then ETN, I think. You're going to get more immediate impact and more of an immediate ceiling probably with Najee Harris. I liked Harris more as a prospect beforehand before the draft, even though my model did give ETN the slight edge. It really wasn't that significant or meaningful. I would go Najee over ETN. Here comes the Packers pick. I think Greenback could go wide receiver here. They could also go corner because they clearly had some issues at corner. Elsie just loves sticking it to Aaron Rodgers and Harris. Yeah. We'll see what they do. Gidele is announcing the pick right now. We'll see if Aaron Rodgers is a happy man. It would be nice if it was Elijah Moore, but I don't think it's going to be. Eric Rodgers is not a happy man. It's Eric Stokes, the cornerback out of Virginia. It is an impact position, which is good because drafting a backup cornerback and a backup running back last year, the first couple of picks, not exactly making the biggest impact there. Let's put this in here for a enough greater cornerback for them. This is before the Aaron Rodgers stuff. This is a similar Aaron Rodgers plays, all 16 games for Green Bay. Brandon, this is where I actually do find a pretty high wind total projection. I have 11.6 for Green Bay. Where are you at with them? Yeah, so they're a 10.5 wind team according to FoxBat minus 143 in the over. I have them at 10.7 winds. Not a whole lot in the division that is rating out super tough overall. That was before Justin Fields was there, baby. It's true, but one of the eight easiest schedules in the league should be favored in 14 of their games. Only four games rating out to be close, like within a field goal either way. So schedule rates out pretty well. I think there's still a lot to like. Again, the teams with projectable good offenses that just flow through a good quarterback, those are the teams that I feel most confident in. And that's what we have. Obviously, we need to get Aaron Rodgers gruntled, but at this point, assuming he's there, they should be a pretty solid team. Yes, we'll assume that he's there. And Ryan, that means that the Packers did not add a wide receiver. So we have Aaron Jones, Devonte Adams, Robert Tungian, Alan Lazard, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, all kind of still seeing it. I don't know. Devin Funches is coming next year. I don't know. I haven't read much about him. Is he still in the NFL? I mean, he opted out last year to sign with the Green Bay. So it's allegedly in theory, sure. But they were fun for DFS last year. I feel like we kind of have to be high on them once again this year, right? Yeah. And hopefully we get a non-disgruntled Aaron Rodgers that can throw these guys the ball, but it doesn't matter.  People always try to argue that it doesn't matter. I mean, his target share is absolutely through the roof. And if they don't do anything to help them out, I would imagine they have to on day two to get somebody in there. But then even then, it's like, it's going to be Devonte Adams and then Lazard and VS and Tungian. So you got to love that upside in. And I guess Aaron Jones, to a certain extent, being back there. But I just think it's Devonte Adams is the alpha in this offense. And this once again proves that they haven't taken a wide receiver since Javon Walker in the first round. I believe that was 2002 when they did that. Man, remember Javon Walker? You know what's funny? So a little story here. I have a jersey collection. Right now, I'm going through a move in my house. I have a jersey. Jim, you knew this. I have like 70 jerseys. I do have like random college shirts. I have a jersey collection. And I was going through it the other day because I'm moving soon over the next month. And I have a Javon Walker jersey, but a Broncos jersey. Remember, he went to the Broncos. Oh, yeah. Yeah. I have a San Antonio Homes Jets jersey. Does that count? That's pretty obscure. It's not. It's not great. It's not great at all. I was going to say I have a real quick as the Buffalo pick is coming in. I have a Patrick Mahomes Bears jersey. Oh, no. From a fantasy. I won my fantasy league and with my buddies. And the point is to get a jersey for the winner that relates somehow. It could be good or bad, but just relates to them. So you don't know what's coming. So I get my jersey. I was under. I was for sure that I was getting Cody Parky. Like I was just going to open it up and see Cody Parky. And I opened up and I see it. So Mahomes Bears jersey. You said you don't have season tickets. Do you wear that to the stadium? So we actually got the season tickets from my future father-in-law last year. COVID year was supposed to be the first year. So there was a debate on whether we re-up them.  Let's just re-up them. This was around the Russell Wilson thing. I was like, if we don't go and we sell them, it's fine. I think Justin Fields is. So we had to do these draft videos for FanDuel Twitter. My top comment for Justin Fields was Russell Wilson. So you kind of get the same thing. There we go. And younger. Yeah. And younger maybe. Rookie deal. Rookie deal. Again, disgruntled, less disgruntled than Russ. Maybe a chip on his shoulder. More gruntled. More gruntled. Thank you, Michael. Yes. But I think that worthwhile to trip out to Soldier Field. Absolutely. Absolutely. I had my most obscure jersey though because I'm a big obscure jersey fan. I have a Selvin Young jersey. Do you remember him? He was a running back for the Broncos in like the 2000s. I do. Yeah. I have a lot of Broncos jerseys you got, JJ. I have. I guess it's those two. Hey, Broncos guy. Apparently. I'm a big Lions guy. But do you have a bunch of Broncos jerseys, but none of them are Nosha Moreno? You're messing it up. True. True. By the way, do you think there's a chance Buffalo goes Javante here? I think there's a possibility, but I have a lot of respect for their front office. So if I mean, They were tied. They were tied to like ETN. Which is different. I get it, but. But if I had to pick yes or no, I'd say. I'd probably lean no. But I'd give it like a 5 to 10 percent chance. Oh, yeah. For more than 5 to 10, because it's such a glaring need for them at running back. Like teams, we talk about how running backs don't matter. But we talked about the exception to that is when you have really bad production. Devon Singletary wasn't great last year. Here we go. Okay. So the pick is in for the Bills at pick number 30 here in the first round. And they went Gregory Russo. The defensive end out of Miami opted out and Jalen Phillips got a lot of production there. So Russo, I think had a really bad pro day as well. Falls to pick 30 and goes to Buffalo. So Buffalo does not go to Javante Williams. And he's actually on the board for Tip Bay at 32 because Baltimore is not going to take him. What if Baltimore gets Elijah Moore here? Do you know how? Do you know how? I mean, I have a lot of like back end in the first round rookie picks in Superflex this year, not because I was good because I traded for them. I would be a little mad too, because like that's where these guys might wind up going. And like that lowers the value of that pick if we get two guys in low volume passing often. I was really hoping like, I don't mind because I wasn't likely going to draft much Cadarius Tony, even though here's the thing too, just a little like tip or like thing that I try to factor in with my dynasty stuff. You have to recognize that if you're working off of ADP or if you're looking at other analysts and how they're ranking guys, the fantasy football community is numbers driven, is analytically driven. So Cadarius Tony, despite having this first round draft capital projection was still being labeled as like the wide receiver nine in this class by different dynasty sites and different rankings and stuff like that. So you really were never gaining this like massive edge by saying, oh, I'm fading Cadarius Tony because you were never really spending much to get Cadarius Tony anyway. And so that's why I sort of, you have to always factor that in but I likely still wasn't going to get Tony based on the stuff that I talked about earlier. It's nice that Tony went to a place where, you don't have to like feel like you need to get them based on the situation. I was kind of hoping that would happen. And him going to like Baltimore and be really easy to fade them. But then obviously Bateman goes there but if they burn two wide receivers. They're going to have in Jenkins. If it doesn't work the first six times, try, try again. So I say to have in Jenkins goes 31 to Baltimore. They trade Orlando Brown, Jr. They fill that gap right away with having Jenkins who would be the second bespectacled offensive alignment to go in the first round because we're Sean Slater glasses guy, Tevin Jenkins glasses guy. We're pro glasses here on the stream. So I feel like as a, as a collective, we should manifest Tevin Jenkins to the Baltimore Ravens. If we can make that work, I'll be very good. So we're getting towards the end of this first round here. Again, we're back in tomorrow. We'll talk more about, you know, overall dynasty rankings then. I don't want to do like non super flex dynasty rankings kind of bore me. I'm not going to, not going to lie. So I'll probably have it with a, a super flex type tinge. But JJ, the receivers, we have Jamar Chase with Cincinnati. We have a Jalen waddle with Miami. We have Devontae Smith with Philadelphia. And I think is Tony, the only other one, or is there one other one? Tony and Bateman. Tony and Bateman. Okay. So Tony and Bateman. I feel like it's, it's the top. Is it just Jamar, Jason, the tier of his owner wide receiver? Or do you put waddle and Smith up there too? I would put, I would go chasing his own tier, then probably still go Devontae over waddle. And then, because that's what I had pre-draft and I, I think it's logical still. And then I'd probably go Bateman than Tony. That's how I, and I would have Bateman still ahead of Tony in a tier, basically tier of his own. Because I don't think Bateman is necessarily in that Alabama wide receiver tier right now. I agree. The, given the landing spot, just the low volume. I would agree with that as well. Rich over on YouTube asked, what's the grade on the Giants pick? Rich, I'm going to take this, alter your question and say, what's the grade on the Giants night? Because I will grade it more favorably if we include the fact that they traded down and picked up, but we think got a first round pick next year from the Bears in that trade. So they get a first round pick next year. And if you ask me, what's my view of a pick when it's Cadarius Tony plus a 2022 first round pick? Pretty favorably. I don't feel great about the Tony pick, but you get a first round pick in addition to that. So I feel good rich, because when you're a Giants fan about the overall night, because they picked up a first round next year, the individual pick was lacking. I feel like they should have gone again, broken record, offensive line, or gone a different wide receiver. They were going to go wide receiver, but the overall process of trading back for the first time in Dave Gettleman's history, getting a first round pick next year, the overall process there was sound. So I feel good about the move, just not the pick itself is the way that I would phrase that. Okay, so we have Baltimore and Tampa Bay left. We have some higher impact skill guys who are still yet to go. We have Givante Williams. We have Elijah Moore.  You know, as we wrap up round one and get set for rounds two and three, next week, or tomorrow, God, next week. I mean, look, it's almost been a year on these ghosts. My bedtime was two hours ago. Yeah, so I'm interested in seeing where, in particular, Elijah Moore goes, obviously, because he was, you know, he was apparently rising up a lot of boards. People were saying that he was like the consensus, wide receiver four in this class going into tonight. Obviously, that's not the case. I think it'll probably be the next wide receiver pick, but I'm interested in seeing who gets him, who gets Ron Dale Moore, who is, you know, a little bit more gadgety than Elijah is, but he's still a beast.  And then Terris Marshall. Let's not talk about that freshman year, specifically his first name, please. I'd really like to get that. And then there's Terris Marshall, who I think is one of the few alpha potential wide outs in this class, but he had pretty bad medicals. He'll be drafted tomorrow. So I'll get into him and his profile and why I like him tomorrow. But those are three that I'm really interested in. And then the top running back is Trevante Williams, who is looking like he's going to be a day two guy. Because I don't think Baltimore is going to get him. And then, you know, the Tampa Bay backfield is incredibly packed. You know, they could hypothetically go that direction, but I don't think it's going to happen. Even though there were some mocks that had Tampa Bay getting a running back. I just said someone with quarterback, which was. Interesting. Wild. Yeah. I just, yeah. I don't think Tampa Bay goes running back. I mean, maybe they surprise us, but. So Trevante Williams looks like he's going to be a day two guy, but he's definitely the best running back available. Yeah. I think that it's not that Tampa Bay shouldn't consider a quarterback. It's the quarterbacks they'd be taking at the back of the first round that were a little dicey, to say the least for sure. Okay. So Baltimore's pick is it. Go ahead, JJ. Yeah. No. So there's a tweet that I found while looking, just reading about the Travis Etn stuff. And it says that Urban Meyer says that he sees James Robinson, Carlos Hyde as the one, two punch and Travis Etn as the third down back. What? Yeah. So, so again, drugs. Yeah. So guys, like, like this is the kind of coach speak that you can take with a grain of salt. Like you can, you can look at this and say, okay, they want to utilize James Robinson and Carlos Hyde still in this offense. But when you're building projections and you're looking at Travis Etn's outlook, you have to understand that a guy that you're picking in the first round is more than likely going to see some sort of rushing share in that offense. Now, you know, my, even my projection for Etn, I had him, you know, not seeing like a 60% rush share in that offense. It was more like the 45 to 50% range. But even still, like, I would be shocked if James Robinson or Carlos Hyde outrush Travis Etn this year after they just spent a first round pick on him. I mean, like, again, it goes back to what we talked about before, where you have to let teams tell, you had Adam Schefter on your podcast a couple of years ago and he talked about you need to read into what teams do. What the Jaguars did is use their second first round pick on Travis Etn and you don't take a guy in the first round to make him a third down back. Yeah, Carlos Hyde is a depth signing. They needed help at running back. They had nothing back there. And then James Robinson, again, just to reiterate UDFA, was he a special back? I don't think so. Was he good? Yeah, he was good, but I don't know if he was special. And so as a result, you know, Travis Etn, much, much better prospect is a much higher ceiling. Ravens are on the block. The Ravens pick is in. There was something weird going on back at the stage. I have no idea what's going on there, but the pick is in for the Ravens. Two picks left in the first round here. Let's see if they go offensive line. They go defensive line. I guess Edgerush or Jason Oway, the guy who has been, every time someone has mentioned Jason Oway during this process, they have been obligated to mention to Neil Hunter because Neil Hunter knows, or not a lot of sack production in college. Jason Oway, the exact same thing, but he's the first round pick, goes to Baltimore. Tampa Bay's pick is already in apparently. So Bruce Arians passes that time as well. Thank you, Bruce. Which means we can kind of start to put a bow on things here. Because again, when we back tomorrow, we'll plenty of time to, I'll actually, I'm going to rank out my top picks for Superflex Dynasty because I had to fill them out for myself anyway. We can go through those tomorrow. So we don't need to go through that now. But I do want to go through overall takeaways. And Tampa Bay could change something here, but I feel like, given their running back room with Geo there, and they just re-signed Antonio Brown too, I feel like it's probably not going to be a, you know, super fantasy relevant guy. So we can start talking about overall takeaways from the first night of the draft. J.J., let's start with you. What's your overall takeaway from night number one here? I don't think that the wide receiver landing spots were very strong. You know, I don't mind Waddle in Miami. I don't mind Jamar Chase and Cincinnati. I think Chase and Cincinnati is going to be fine because they're a very pass-heavy offense. Joe Burroughs, a nice young quarterback. And Jamar Chase will get his just because he's talented and good. But even like Devontae Smith going to Philly, they could be fairly run heavy just because of Jalen Hertz. I mean, I know they had sort of funky splits with Jalen Hertz where they did throw a decent amount. But, you know, if you think logically at how they would want to approach that offense, you know, it's not like the best fit in the world. Cadarius Tony, going to the Giants, that's not a great opportunity or situation.  It's just not a great night for wide receivers in fantasy, I think. I think that rookie drafts took a slight hit with those landing spots. Yeah. So I think it is pretty tough. And we did get a question here from Tyler on YouTube asking, which rookie wide receiver has the most production this year? JJ, is it Jamar Chase, like by a wide margin? I think so. I think Devontae Smith probably has the second highest ceiling. Just because there's not a lot going on competition-wise in Philadelphia, he could easily capture a 24 percent target share if he hits. So I'd probably put Devontae Smith's second Jamar Chase in his own tier. OK. So Brandon and Ryan, I want to get your thoughts on the overall takeaways here. But the Buccaneers pick is in with pick 32, the final pick of the first round of this draft. And they went with Joe Tryon out of Washington. So again, not a fantasy-relevant guy. So let's finish up here with the takeaways, Brandon, from you. Talking mostly betting and daily fantasy. Anything takeaways for you from this draft and any big movers for you from a wind total projection perspective? No. Like I said, at the top of the show, I wasn't going to overreact to a lot of stuff. I will say I bumped up a few teams a little bit, maybe more than I thought. Surprisingly, and this is the subjective part, felt pretty good with the ETN pick for the Jaguars. So I kind of bumped up their offense a bit. But every team that took an offensive lineman, I just bumped up their offensive efficiency because that's usually what we see. I'm very happy. I think the biggest takeaway for me is that I'm just very happy for Alan Robinson. Yes. Alan Robinson and happy for Ryan because Ryan gets a roof or a good quarterback. Ryan, is that your top takeaway tonight? You get to watch Justin Fields play at Soldier Field this fall? Yeah. I mean, that was awesome. But we won't go chalk because I'm excited and people can follow me on Twitter for all of that reaction. But no, I think the biggest takeaway for me is just the Lions here with DeAndre Swift. I mean, I really will just be beating the drum for him all offseason with the way that that offense is currently designed. And from a negative standpoint or yet to be seen standpoint, it's just really surprising that the Broncos are not addressing the quarterback position unless they have some type of card up their sleeve or something like that. I'm really just shocked that they are comfortable with going into what would be Teddy Bridgewater, I assume, starting in 2021. Well, discount double check back on the Broncos later on and see what they decide to do with their quarterback situation. For me, the biggest takeaway is we just know the landing spots of the quarterbacks. I thought it was a... So the bad landing spots for the wide receivers, I think that the quarterbacks actually got pretty good landing spots. Trey Lance goes to a dream spot. Trevor Lawrence gets to have, I think, okay, supporting cast with Jacksonville. Zach Wilson, not a bad supporting cast. And Justin Fields goes to a spot where he can succeed. So although we were bumping down the wide receivers, I think we bump up the quarterbacks and feel very good about them where they went in this draft on night number one. That is all that we have for today. We're going to be back here once again tomorrow, though. We're going to be on air at 7 p.m. Eastern to talk the second and third rounds. We'll see where Givante Williams goes, Terrace Marshall, Rondale Moore, a lot of big names. Still to come off the board. We'll talk about the implications of that tomorrow and we'll go through more concrete rankings for these guys in Dynasty. Talk about where things shook out. Now we have time to digest all that went down. So make sure you follow Ryan on Twitter, Ryan Alexander, underscore W, Brandon is Acadula 13, and JJ is at late round QB. I am at Jim Sonnis. We want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Also a tremendously big thank you to Calvin Theobald, our video producer on air with us the entire four hours. Cal, we'll see you again tomorrow, man. We appreciate it. It's going to be a fun ride. We'll see all of you again tomorrow. Make sure you are subscribed on the Fando YouTube, Twitch, Facebook, and Twitter pages. We'll see you again. Talk rounds two and three here on the Fando YouTube, Twitch, Facebook, and Twitter pages.