from the cradle on this Titans all access coach Dave McGinnis explains how Khalif Raymond got so open twice at Minnesota fellow whiteout AJ Brown is this week's Nissan insider and we'll look at the big place from Tennessee's undefeated September all of that and more as Titans all access starts now the monster light of the two recent positives test that we had the NFL had made the smart and safe decision to postpone our game and that we would be on a bi-week starting now Mike Frable from Thursday morning after learning that COVID-19 has postponed the Titans home game against the Pittsburgh Steelers the Titans facing a new set of obstacles as October dawns and the NFL season continues we welcome you to Titans all access with Amy Wells I'm Mike Keith and we're joined right off the top of the show by Titans General Manager John Robinson and John to say the last few days have been a challenge for the Titans organization would be an understatement you're really having to draw on that resolve that we've seen out of your football team on the field in the first three games yeah it's obviously still 2020 and still throwing things our way but you know that's the makeup of our of our football team you know just working through the situation that we've been dealt now we do want to take a minute to talk about the Titans win over the Minnesota Vikings and I want to start with Steven Gostkowski because he made six field goals three in the second half from over 50 yards in the game winner of course was from 55 he's one of the best kickers in the NFL statistically but it seems as though he does even better when the game is on the line do you agree Steve obviously got off to a less than ideal start as he would admit to there in Denver but you know he's made a lot of big kicks in this league he's kicked in pressure situations and all those kicks Sunday versus Minnesota were big for us and I was proud for it and hopefully he is to kick more extra points than Phil goes moving forward Mike Vrabel said after the Minnesota game that he thought defensive tackle Jeffrey Simmons might have played his best game as a Titan what jumped out about what Jeffrey did against the Vikings certainly tough to block for four quarters you know whether it was you know on passing downs or rundowns you know I thought he disrupted the line of scrimmage he changed the line of scrimmage several times he got pressure on the quarterback on the interior of the pocket gave great chase down the line of scrimmage and in pursuit several times you know to help us get a stop so yeah it was what it was one of one of Jeffrey's better performances for sure now we're gonna talk about Khalif Raymond a little bit later with Dave McGinnis but I want to ask you about him as well because his first three catches have really shown off his explosiveness we see it in practice every day we saw you know we saw it last year in 2019 in a couple games Indian and Baltimore there were you know he can really stretch the field vertically and come up with those chunk plays there are those explosive plays and that was the case Sunday in Minnesota you know the coverage was it was right as a great call by Arthur a great throw by Tanya Hill but it was about Khalif getting separation from the defender and making a play on the football and those plays that he made were critical for us to get points in those drives next man up is always something the Titans are conscious of Tater LeWon goes down at left tackle you call on a young man that you sign this offseason ties umbrella felt like he did a very good job blocking Yannick and Gakway in some tough circumstances yeah you know ties a veteran in this league he's you know he's played a lot of different positions whether it was guard right tackle left tackle you know he's kind of been a master at moving positions and plugging in when needed you know the first set of plays was a little bit rough for him but he settled down did a really really good job for the old line protecting against you know really really good pass a pass rusher and then helping in the run game as well so proved to be a key piece for a Sunday in Minnesota to keep that thing going up next coach Dave McGinnis takes us beneath the surface to show us Khalif Raymond's explosiveness maybe just said that I think that's next on Titans all access good listening Mike we welcome you back to Titans all access you know Amy Wells Titans fans love wide receiver Khalif Raymond they do and I agree I too love wide receiver Khalif Raymond is it because he's small and tough and thankful and appreciative and will do anything no it's because he catches the football Mike she's awesome it's true she hangs around with Dave McGinnis too which is why when we go to Microsoft's beneath the surface here you'll hear coach Mack talk about a lot of the same things I like him personally actually as well catch the ball that's all I need this is coach Mack welcome to beneath the surface powered by Microsoft surface today we're going to look at two explosive plays by the Titans offense that went a long way contributing to this victory over the Minnesota Vikings both of them Ryan Tannehill to Khalif Raymond and a tremendous job of the offensive line and the play action protection that ensued first play we're going to look at it's a second play of the ball game that's 1425 in the first quarter we've got regular personnel in the game two backs two wide receivers one tied in you see the motion across the ball here that gives us a slot formation we've caught the Minnesota Vikings in man to man defense and so what we're going to see is the play action watch the play action protection tremendous tremendous pocket for Ryan Tannehill and then Khalif Raymond on the outside against cornerback Holton Hill watch the stutter and go and then the exact perfect pass watch it drop right into Khalif Raymond's hands big game 44 yards second play of the ball game it perched the Minnesota defense on alert that if they're going to play eight people in the box then the Titans are going to take shots downfield now we're looking at first and 10 from the minus 35 it's Titans 19 Minnesota 24 now we are in 12 personnel go from three by one to two by two the motion across the ball Minnesota is now in quarters coverage we're going to get play action with the crunch look we again have excellent excellent protection corners coverage the safety's bite up on the person going out into the flat Khalif Raymond now does a tremendous job sticks his foot in the ground makes a real nice corner post move the safety the rookie Jeff Gladney bites on the move wide open down the middle again nice marriage between play action protection and then Khalif Raymond using his speed and also a very nice down the field move to get wide open look at the great protection look at the pocket look at the time that Ryan Tannehill has another beautiful beautiful pass this led to Derek Henry's second rushing touchdown of the game now the Tennessee Titans are moving towards the victory you've seen two explosive plays off of play action protection executed to perfection by the Tennessee Titans AJ Brown posted record setting numbers in his rookie season could he have had the same impact on another sport number 11 discusses it next on Titans All Access members i started coming to the games when i was old enough to walk i've been a season ticket holder for this my third year um and Titans games are so much fun and my favorite part of the year i'm really honored and i'm very humbled to have this opportunity to come and i'm very sure the same Thomas very true to Titans the first time i've ever seen at this empty normally i'm just trying to scoop past people get to my seats sit down watch the free game this is really really weird it's like a ghost town just got finished seeing the team warm up and it's gonna be exciting to see how the game before the game i you know i said hey to Arthur Smith as he was walking out he looked at me gave me a point and i don't want to say you know i helped inspire him with some of the play calls but i'm not i don't think i did anything to hurt the Titans offense we are cheering that no one else is but me and Aaron definitely will be yelling every time there's a big third down awesome to be here able to cheer the Titans on it's awesome so we're really excited to see them and we're hoping that for a win today fires into the end zone ball caught you can see what's happening but it's also kind of nice to hear what's happening it's praying that they'll win today all access continues it's time for our Nissan Insider and you know uh it's football season it is indeed but it's also the playoffs in baseball there's a lot going on right i love the baseball you know i love baseball so much and i love playoff time it's so exciting but you know who doesn't necessarily love baseball me maybe you but also the subject of this week's Nissan Insider and this may surprise you football season is getting underway everybody's excited but baseball is winding down almost playoff time now people know about you not only a great football player growing up a 19th round draft pick of the Padres super outfielder great growing up when the playoffs start to get here do you ever miss baseball at all that's a good question because to be honest a lot of people know i play baseball but i really do not watch baseball at all like at all so you don't know what's going on with the Padres or anybody else i i promise you my brother turns to it on tv i'll watch for a couple swings then i exit the room it is the most boringest game to watch on tv to me but i can play it somehow what would you say are the skills that you had in baseball that you certainly use as a football player skills that were really applicable to both for an athlete i would just say hand-eye coordination with catching the ball and tracking the ball you know if you can track a little small baseball you can track around football so it makes it makes it easier your competitiveness that's the thing that really jumps out watching you in practice watching you in games where does that come from um that comes from my dad to be honest uh putting me at a putting me with older kids growing up like he used to lie like my application saying i was older even though i was younger so i was playing with an older age and i had to compete and when i got to my age group i was pretty much dominating so is that maybe the biggest reason that you didn't have a a fear or an apprehension last year as a rookie and that you certainly don't show it now i've never been a type of the been scared i kind of got that out when i was in middle school that's the last time i've been scared to play football when i was in middle school so as you come through your rookie year and you're now into year two what's the biggest thing you've learned the most important thing you've learned i would definitely say just being a pro all the time all the time you know it's not a switch it's not a day you can come in and you want to work hard someday it's every day it's the everyday thing and you always got to try to be a student of the game and try to learn something new every day and try to improve because that's what is about in this league what do you want to be as an nfl player what do you want to be known as uh when somebody talks about me bring my name up i just want to speak good things and and say like he's come he come to work every day he leave by example you know he's a great teammate he's a great he's a great person so we love watching you play thanks for letting us get to know you a little better a j brown we appreciate you being this week's nissan insider thank you boy mike i'm glad he chose football i think it was a good decision yeah a j brown our nissan insider this week when we returned amy wells and i cover the news of the week which of course is the postponement of sunday's game with the pittsburgh steelers and later in the program the best plays from an undefeated month of september as titans all-access content if you want the most complete information on your tennessee titans in podcast form subscribe to the otp presented by farm bureau health plans mike amy coach mack and jim liatt get you ready for the game like no one else to get the otp visit tennessee titans dot com slash podcasts or look for the otp wherever you get your podcasts we welcome you back to titans all-access amy wells and i set to talk about a bye week that we did not expect it's the titans earliest by since 2015 titans were scheduled to play the steelers this weekend but on thursday morning the league postpones the game until later in the season and i think the interest of health stands first for this league and the first thing you have to be concerned about the players and the staff members who've tested positive for covid-19 and their health absolutely and that's what mike verable has kind of redirected the attention to is that we want to make sure these guys are okay we want to make sure that they are healthy and being treated the way that they need to be and their families are able to remain healthy that is the ultimate concern for mike verable of course they former players so he understands how these guys are feeling and i think that that ultimately is the most important thing and it's good to see that the tennessee titans and the national football league are keeping that at the forefront of all decisions mike verable has been the titans head coach for just over two seasons now and he's certainly seen some adversity during that time he was asked on thursday about what he has learned through this entire process that not just football coaches may learn from but people all over sports yeah i think it's just important that you stay together you know i think you stay consistent in in what the the approach is that you you have a personal side to you that that you want to make sure that those put those people that are indeed infected are safe and that they're they're healing but but also understand that um you know the the severity of it and that will will probably have different protocols that we'll have to follow you know i understand that when we go back into the building and we'll we'll do exactly what the league asks us to do for the safety of the players and their families and our inner staff and their families so here's what we do know about the football side of it the tennessee titans will end the season playing 13 straight games and that is obviously a big challenge for this football team but it doesn't seem like challenges phase this group no this is a very resilient team we've seen it early in the season that they are able to overcome whatever obstacles are thrown their way and now we're going to see it again in the later part of the season 13 games is a big pill to swallow it's a lot but on the same token this team can handle it they are prepared they are in good shape and as long as this team can stay healthy that challenge is not insurmountable that's a good point so the tennessee titans although they are disrupted by what's happened this week there's no question about that they are not completely thrown off because of who they are and where they are and that's what's really very exciting about this team going forward much to deal with but they deal with it from a position of strength with their veteran leadership and with their good start and when titans all access continues we'll take a look at some of the best plays from september an undefeated month for the titans where they had a lot of good things happen we'll see them all again next on titans all access on the next titans all access it's time to get ready for a visit from the buffalo bill we'll have a preview of game one in tennessee's three game october homestand and all pro punter brett kerne a buffalo native is our nissan insider find out what's important to the man who's the best in the business all that and more next time on titans all access this is normally the part of the program where we'd have john robinson on to provide his keys to beating the next opponent sponsored by farm bureau insurance of course as you know by now there is no game this weekend because tennessee pittsburgh postponed so instead we're going to treat you to some of the best moments from what was an undefeated september absolutely there's nothing better than reliving a three and o start let's do that let's do that and so for amy wells i'm mike keith thanks for joining us for titans all access enjoy the good things that we've seen in the month of september and hopefully we've got a lot more good things to come yes for the lead his kick on the way give henry left side touchdown he goes flying through the air like superman touchdown tight right hack for the lead snap sad who next who next


There you go, mate. That should do the trick. Rusty, get here! Rusty, settle down. Just jam. G'day, Jim. Morning, Mick. Pull up a chair. I've just made a fresh pot. Hey there, Rusty, old boy. So how's things at home? Grass and cattle all good? It seems so, Mick. Actually, the paddocks are doing better than I expected. But because I've had below-median rainfall for the past three months, should I be worried? Well, the median is just the middle measurement of all records over time. So even if the rainfall and pasture growth is below the median, it could still fall within the average range or middle tersoil. The middle tersoil? Rusty, you deserted me. G'day, Liz. Rusty always loves a visitor, eh? He just loves misbehaving. Liz, you know more about stats than me. How about bringing Jim up to speed on tersoils? Sure. Great. I'll grab some biscuits. Okay, Jim. What do you know about tersoils? Not sure, Liz. Are they anything like percentiles? Sort of. Percentiles and tersoils are both used to rank and order measurements. Percentiles split a set of measurements into divisions of 100, while tersoils split measurements into groups of three or into thirds. Tersoils are really useful for ranking measurements into broad groups to give us more detailed information. Here we are. Fresh out of the oven. They look great, Dad. And perfect for my demonstration. Okay, Jim. Imagine each biscuit is a measurement. For example, they could be a measurement of rainfall or pasture growth over time. Some are large and some are smaller and some are in the middle. To determine whether a biscuit is below average, average or above average, we need to rank them by size, which just means we need to order them from smallest to largest. Once the biscuits are arranged in order by size, we can then split them into three equal groups or thirds. This shows us which tersoil they fall into. The smallest biscuits fall within the first tersoil, which is also called the lower or bottom tersoil. And the middle-sized biscuits fall into the second or the middle tersoil. And the largest biscuits fall into the third tersoil. That's it, Jim. And that's the top or upper tersoil. So now you have the data split into three groups or tersoils according to their size. Rusty obviously likes the third tersoils. So tersoils can be used to show whether a measurement falls within an average, above average or below average range. Yes, compared to the median, which only divides the measurement set into halves. So even if I have below median pasture growth, it could still fall within the average range? Exactly. Rusty! Have a look at this pasture growth map, Jim. You can see the last 12 months of pasture growth for our area fell within the middle tersoil, which is considered the long-term average based on historical data. Now this line shows the pasture growth in kilograms per hectare. See how the line increases as the pasture grown accumulates over the 12-month period. And the last value is the total amount of pasture growth for the 12-month period. Okay. And the shaded area? Well that's the middle tersoil or long-term average pasture growth over time. And you can see the last 12 months of pasture growth for our area fell within the middle tersoil. So we've had average pasture growth then? Exactly. This is when tersoils can be really helpful. While the median or fiftieth percentile only tells us the middle measurement of all the data, tersoils give us a range of values to consider when we're making decisions. So even if the measurement is below the median value, it can still be within the long-term average range? Yes. As long as it's within this middle tersoil. You can use the same information to get an indication of future pasture growth as well. For example, this is the same middle tersoil as the last graph, showing the long-term average pasture growth. The pasture growth model uses the seasonal forecast to estimate the growth for the next six months, which in this instance is in the top tersoil. Wow. That's handy to know. Dad, I think Rusty's had enough bickies.  Let's get you some proper tucker. I hope that's helped. Sure has. Thanks, Liz. Let me show you something else, Jim. We can also look at maps of historical pasture growth based on tersoil ranges. For example, this is a pasture growth map of our region for the last 12 months relative to historical pasture growth. And most of it's gray, so it's in the middle tersoil or average pasture growth range. You can see we had similar pasture growth conditions in 2017, which was also in the middle tersoil. What about 2015? I've heard the conditions were pretty bad back then. You're telling me there was a lot of red on the map that summer. Well, on the other hand, you can see the blue and green areas in 2011. That was a pretty good year for pasture growth. We can also look into the future using what's called most likely tersoil for pasture growth maps. What a mouthful. It is, but these maps actually give us a pasture growth estimate for the next three months over a broad area. Very handy when we have to make future stock and property decisions. So these are new maps? Yep. And what are they called again? Most likely tersoil for pasture growth maps because they give an indication of what tersoil pasture growth you could have for the next three months. So tersoils are helpful because they give you ranges of outcomes instead of a single value, like a median. I use them to understand where we are in relation to previous and future periods of rainfall and pasture growth. I reckon they could help me make some decisions as well. Where do you get them? Well, I get the pasture growth alert report as a monthly subscription, which is free on the Forage page. And the most likely tersoil pasture growth maps are on the Aussie Grass page, both on the Long Paddock website. Thanks for that, Mick. You and Liz do a great job keeping on top of everything. Oh, rainfall, pasture growth and cattle sale price. Speaking of which, did you catch yesterday's market report? Yes, the market is good at the moment. I might have to put a few in the next site. For more information on the products discussed in this video, please visit the Long Paddock website. You can find rainfall and pasture growth maps and access your own pasture growth alert report. Thanks for watching.


xo zero's content. Today's video, we're going to discuss the top PVP teams and heroes as of February 7, 2021. But before that, if you want updated xo zero's content, please hit the subscribe button. It's down below. Hey guys, hope you're doing well. What you're looking at right now is the top tier heroes in PVP usage rate way back in January 24, 2021. Okay, so if you can see here, I just want to reiterate that the new nation which is Linombe is actually about to come in as of January 24. But as we look at the current top teams, what do you see there? So, there hasn't been much change in the top hero. FC Iris is still at the top with 68% usage. So, she hasn't moved for I think around since we entered January. So, at number two, we have FC April at 34% usage. So, she jumps eight spots to second. So, she was tied with Rachel and Zeon for the tenth spot two weeks ago. Now, she's in second with Linombe as has basically gone up in terms of usage because of a counter to the stall meta. For number three, we have there FC Rachel. So, FC Rachel also comes to the top. So, she rounds, he rounds out the top three with a usage of 32%. So, he jumps actually at seven spots from number 10 as well. Okay, so at four, Bathory is actually up. So, she's up one spot at 30% usage followed by FC Garf who has jumped three spots as well at 30%. And Rudley at number six also at 30%. So, they have a three-way tie which places them at four, five, and six. The way that I placed ties by the way is based on the previous record as well. So, if they placed higher than what they call this, than the others that they have a tie now, they're usually on top of them in terms of ranking like four for Bathory because she was ahead of Garf and Rudley in the previous rank. Okay, so, we move on to our seventh. So, we have FC Zeon at 28%. So, again, he jumps up three places because of the team built by Linombe to counter the stall meta. Then, from eight to nine, we have a little bit of a drop. From eight, we have FC Tantalo at 26%. Tantalo, Talia, and Annie actually are tied. So, that is why they all have 26%. The biggest drop here would be Tantalo because Tantalo before was, I think, in second place. Now, he's in eighth.  That's a big drop. Also, you have FC Talia, a minus three as well in usage and FC Annie, 26% at a minus three as well. So, if you take note of the top 10, you only have a mix of... Rara is not actually the top 10. So, she's actually exited Bathory's usage actually increased even without Rara. So, what you have there is majority. You have Wasted Red heroes and Linombe heroes that are dominating the top 10 currently. So, let's move on to our top teams in PvP. Take note that there are some heroes that aren't in the top tier heroes list. That will be in the top teams as I will show you now. So, if you can see here, the top teams in PvP 50 teams... I'm sorry, I forgot to mention that. This data is based on the Asian server. So, for those who don't belong to the Asian server, you might have a different scenario for your top teams. So, if you can see here, the top used team is composed of FC Iris, FC April, FC Rachel, FC Morris, and FC Zeon. Special mention to FC Morris because he didn't actually... He didn't go to the top 10 in terms of heroes but he is here. He is mostly used in this composition, mainly for this composition of Iris, April, Rachel, Morris, and Zeon. So, you can actually also prioritize Morris in your builds if you want to because he's most used also in Linombe compositions. The other Linombe composition I'll just jump to this line is FC Iris, FC April, Rachel. In place of Morris, they have Baraka and FC Zeon. So, you can actually swap those two. FC Baraka's usage also jumped because of this build. So, for those who have been using Linombe, they just swapped these two out. Okay? So, let's go back to our second row that has six teams. So, it's FC Iris, Garf, FC Rudley, FC Ramji, and FC Annie. Also, for Ramji, Ramji did not enter the top 10 but he is here in the top tier teams in PvP. Okay? So, actually my team build belongs to this. I've been using, I've been tinkering with mostly Wasted Rare, then a splash of North One Frosty. And actually, I like this build because it actually again counters the current meta of the stall meta. But the problem with this build, when it encounters historiciopublic, particularly Shell and Jani, it actually encounters a big problem in terms of what they call this. In terms of Jani's passive, I forgot her passive. Anyway, I usually have a problem with historiciopublic teams composed of Jani, Shell, also with Adams or with Jin. So, those are my problems for this one. For the third level, you have their FC Iris, FC Talya, FC Tantallo, FC Rera, and FC Bathory with five usages. So, this is actually your classic stall meta. So, it's still in place. There are still a lot of players using it, and it's actually placing good in our top 50 teams in PvP. So, I'll skip the fourth one. I'll go to the fifth one. So, it's FC Iris, Dorca, FC Shufraken, or FC Shuf, FC Valentina, and FC Bathory with four. So, this team, I forgot to highlight them in Black, but this is actually what you call this. They're actually a wild card in terms of teams that have been in the top 50.  That is why Bathory's usage in the top heroes actually increased also because of this team. And Dorca is actually here to support them because of healing as well. So, this actually rounds out your top tier teams in PvP. So, there's actually a big change right now in PvP and teams on the top are actually knocking each other out. And I'm actually excited and looking forward to the next two weeks' teams if this stays up or there will be a change in the top teams or in the top heroes in PvP for the 50 teams in Asian server. Okay. So, again, for your top tier heroes in PvP, Iris is still queen. I think she'll stay there in terms of utility. She has been good. She has been one of the best heroes that we've ever had in terms of utility and overall play. Anyway, guys, if you have any comments, suggestions, if you have any other team compositions that actually you would compare to the current PvP rankings, you may put them down below in the comments. Also, please don't forget to subscribe because most of the subscribers that have, sorry, most of the viewers that have been watching my channel have not been subscribed yet. More or less around 80% to 70% or 70% to 80% of you guys have not subscribed it. And subscribing really helps out my channel. And with that, take care. This is the warden and I'm out.


Well, welcome, thanks everybody for coming out. I know it's always fun to have the last talk of the day right before the beer bash. So feel free to, if you decide what I'm saying is boring and you just want to go open a beer, just make sure you got one ready for me when I get there. So I'll be heading there shortly after we get done here. Anyway, so hopefully you're here to hear a little bit about fleet monitoring with IoT subtitled pets versus cattle. I kind of stole that subtitle, but I think it's kind of appropriate here. Just real briefly, I'm Drew Mosley. I've been doing embedded Linux stuff, I don't know, 15 years and 25 plus years in the embedded space. Currently, I work at Toradex as a solution architect for our Verizon platform, which is an industrial embedded Linux platform with a container runtime over the air updates, all those fun kind of things that are kind of necessary for building out these systems today. So briefly, what we're going to talk about today, start with the definition of what I mean by fleet monitoring because it's one of those terms that's way overloaded and it means all sorts of different things to different people. So we'll kind of define it a little bit, so we're all on the same page. Talk a little bit about what I see is the general architecture of fleet monitoring solutions and how it's a little bit different in the internet of things. And we'll review some of the options guided primarily by the systems that we investigated for inclusion in our horizon platform. And then we'll finish up with a proof of concept implementation with a Yachto layer that I've got published and we'll go through some demo stuff and hopefully if you guys are interested, you can make use of the layer that I published and I should hopefully we've got enough time to go through all that. Just real briefly about Toradex, we make hardware, if you're not familiar with us, we make system on modules based primarily these days on IMX six and eight chips. We have offices all over the world and just because I always like pictures of fancy hardware, this is our basic product portfolio. We have three product lines. If you want more information about that, we've got plenty of time tomorrow to discuss it. So question, how many of you guys have heard the term pets versus cattle? All right, so most of you. As I was starting to do the research here, it was a term originally coined by a guy named Randy Bias. The link there is a blog article he wrote describing it. It really came from the enterprise computing space where when people were starting to look on servers as essentially things you can just throw away and bring them back up. That's the whole idea, pets versus cattle. I always am happy to have a reason to put a picture of my dogs up on the screen. Obviously, your pets, you treat very differently than cattle. Pets are each individual, you treat them individually, you feed them what they need based on their medical needs and that kind of thing. Cattle, they're pretty much interchangeable. You can't be doing individual maintenance for every single one of these machines when you've got 10 million of them out in the field. It just doesn't make sense. So to modify it a little bit in the IoT space, you can kinda look at the pet designs as your kind of weekend projects, your home automation thing, my 3D printer where I've got a Raspberry Pi connected to it. When I need to update it, I SSH into the Raspberry Pi, I do the app to get update, and I put my hands on that one physical machine and I very carefully and meticulously keep it up to date. That doesn't work, it doesn't scale very well when you're looking at large fleets of identical devices. So in terms of the large fleets of identical devices, you want them to be identical, you want the machine, the binaries that you're installing on them to be identical across all machines so that if one dies, you throw it away, you get a new one and you put it in place. So where does fleet monitoring come in here? So even though they're intended to be identical and replaceable and all that, you still need some mechanism to determine when things are going bad, right? So you have to have some kind of system built in into your software to allow you to monitor the devices, monitor the fleet, get telemetry, that kind of thing and start to see when you are having issues with certain devices and whether they can be repaired or they just need to be completely replaced. So, and if you have time, I encourage you to read that blog article, it's not very long, it's probably a 10 minute read, but it really goes into a lot of detail and explains a lot of things about the history of the whole idea. So just a little bit more in-depth on what fleet monitoring is. When I started looking at this, I did what I always do and I go to Wikipedia because that's the font of all information. The only problem is if you type fleet monitoring into Wikipedia, you're gonna get a lot of stuff about maintaining your vehicle fleets, your delivery trucks and that kind of thing and not so much about software fleet monitoring. So, we kind of had to kind of make it up a little bit as we go, but in general, the idea is periodic monitoring of some amount of data from all the devices in your fleet. It could be things like gathering log information, CPU usage, memory usage, things like that, pretty straightforward stuff or it could be very application specific stuff depending on what your needs are or your particular workflow. And some ability to analyze and visualize that data and you hear the term a lot of single pane of glass, the idea is you've got a web dashboard somewhere that gives you an overall sense of the health of your entire device fleet. And in terms of, just in terms for this, for purposes of the proof of concept that I'm doing here, things that are out of scope are things like remote access, remote control and then very use case dependent features like machine learning, AI, big data type stuff. I'm not going into that here, but most of these systems obviously can be expanded into those areas as needed. So things that you might want to monitor with a fleet monitoring solution, first and foremost obviously is device health, are the devices online, are they offline, how long have they been up? What's the status of the core services if you're running containers or the containers up and running which system these services are available? Some thermal, that's always interesting. The things that usually, and that we'll see in the proof of concept, things like CPU and memory utilization, how much flash and network usage you've got and then obviously device configuration, what version of the kernel am I running, that kind of thing. Some other things, device status changes, the system's working and all of a sudden you get a failed health check, you might want to get some history of the information and be able to look back and see if you can figure out what happened. If there was an over the air update of some kind and it failed, how are you gonna be able to troubleshoot that? Logging is always something that will eventually make its way into one of these systems. And then just, I did want to briefly mention some non-functional requirements that if you are looking at some of these solutions that you might want to consider, obviously at this conference, I'm pretty sure we all want it to be open source. It may or may not be a requirement for you. These are an on-premise version of the server side versus a hosted version, what kind of performance and resource requirements it has both on the client and the server side. And finally, how easy is it to extend it and integrate it with other services? Because chances are pretty good. Any of these systems that you work with, they're not gonna meet all your needs and you're gonna have to need some ability via over APIs or whatnot to enhance the services and integrate with other systems. So the general architecture you see here, and I know everybody's very jealous of my diagramming skills here, but since most of these systems have come out of the enterprise computing space, you'll see that they're able to take input from a lot of different sources. SNMP is a big one. Local files are just items that are generated on the device itself. Cloud APIs, you'll see a lot of off-board inputs that are pulled into the systems. You'll see on-board inputs where you're just pulling telemetry from the device itself. Then there's some concept of filtering generally in each of these systems. You might be filtering on the device to just limit the amount of data you're sending back. There might be some kind of filtering off the device, say, in an edge node somewhere. And then an important component to most of these systems is the ability to have multiple output sources. So in the proof of concept we're doing here, we actually are using the Kibana data visualization framework, but you could also send it to other outputs. Our Verizon platform takes in some of this data and we're able to display it there, but it may or may not have everything you need. So the ability to actually get into the system and be able to have multiple output streams is very important. Now how is this different from the IoT architecture? Generally speaking, at least for the kinds of designs we work with, it's much more homogenous. All the devices are identical or within a couple of maybe two, maybe three device personalities, you don't have near the flexibility that you would have in say an enterprise, big enterprise deployment. And in most cases, you're gonna see that the inputs are much more limited. You're not gonna be, generally speaking, pulling SNMP data from a consumer IoT device that you buy at the local Best Buy and plug into the environment. Normally with what we see in IoT deployments here, all the data that is coming into the system is coming from the devices themselves. They're not really reaching out and interrogating the local environment to send information back. So it's a little bit simpler in that perspective. You still want the ability to have filtering from within the device as well as the multiple output streams. It's pretty important to be able to do that. So a couple of the options that we looked at just wanna quickly, briefly mention them here. These are the ones that we looked at and pretty quickly decided that they were not a great solution for IoT. Primarily for all of these, it was due to their on-device footprints.  The first one that we looked at was one called Nagyos Chi. It's a very full-featured system. It does use a lot of SNMP. There's also custom agents. It is hybrid between open source and commercial licensing. The demo server, I've got the link there. You can actually log in and you can get an idea of how much functionality is available in this system. Yachto recipes do exist, so it is feasible. You could actually run this in an IoT system built on a Yachto device, but it's gonna take quite a bit of ram and flash to be able to do anything with it. Similarly, ElasticStack. If you haven't heard of this one, it's pretty common. Elastic Search, LogStack, and Kibana are the three main components of it. It has a lot of input plugins. You see a couple listed here. It has both on-prem and hosted options. It is dual-licensed under Apache. It does have a relatively large device footprint. They do have something that's relatively new called Beats that I didn't really spend a whole lot of time researching, but the idea is it's supposed to reduce the on-device footprint with smaller agents and that kind of thing. And we are actually using, in the proof of concept here, we're using the Kibana portion of this for the proof of concept. That's actually running on the server side, so the fact that it takes a decent amount of memory and disk space is not as big a deal. And one of the things I wanted to mention about this is when I started the research here, I kind of assumed there would be client-side solutions and server-side solutions, but in most cases, it's really kind of an integrated thing. You'll find Elastic Stack, the Elastic Search with LogStash and Kibana, they're kind of a combination. They all have APIs, so you can mix and match as you need, but for the most part these systems are fairly full into end-to-end client-server solutions. Another one I'm sure we've all heard of is Datadog. They're the only ones that specifically mention IoT monitoring on their website that I could find. I've got the link there. Exactly what it means, I'm not sure. I didn't spend a whole lot of time with it. Xavix, the first bullet here, that's actually their description of their system, obviously enterprise class. It wasn't really terribly interesting from our perspective, but it is fully open source. Another one that there are Yachto recipes for, so take that as you will, you might be able to make use of that in your design. The last one we looked at is Splunk. They're the quote, data to everything, platform, powering, security, IT and DevOps. A lot of words in there. It's a very big, very heavy solution that can do a lot of stuff, but it was way overkill for our needs. So I seem to have reordered my slides here. So this was supposed to be the next slide. So a couple other options. We looked at one Telegraph and Influx DB. I know I spoke to some of the Influx folks today. There is both on-prem and hosted, MIT licensed. It is written in Golang, which is nice because that means it compiles down to a single binary, no external dependencies, makes it very easy to figure out what you've got to put on your device to actually get this thing working. But 110 mega flash is quite a bit when some of our systems on modules only have 256 megs of flash on board. So it's kind of hard to justify half of your flash for just this fleet monitoring solution. Again, Yachto recipes exist here. So this is actually usable in some of the larger systems. And the final one that we investigated is called Fluent Bit or Fluent D. It's an open source Apache. It is part of the Cloud Native Computing Foundation, which is good, we all like that. There's really two options here. There's Fluent D, which is the smaller of the two. It's written in C and Rust. It's only got, sorry, this is the bigger of the two. It's written in C and Rust. You see, it's got a lot of output and input plugins. It does depend on RubyGems, which makes it take up a little bit more space in the system just due to all the transitive dependencies and that kind of thing that can get pulled in. Takes up about 40 megs of flash. Then there's also the Fluent Bit client, which was specifically written in C and designed to be small for these kind of deployments. It's a lot less choice of input and output plugins, but realistically not that big a deal since we're not trying to be as flexible as a full enterprise class system. It doesn't have any extra role dependencies, which makes it easy. Three megs of flash, 650K RAM, and obviously, Yachto recipes exist. So since I got my slides all out of order, we'll jump back here. I kind of buried the lead here. So we ended up choosing Fluent Bit for our solution with a custom output plugin that basically sends all the data back to our server side over in-band JSON. We do have, at the moment, we're actually pulling in more data than we're displaying and eventually we'll have the ability to, over the API, to actually pull the extra data out and do whatever post-processing you need. But since you can actually choose multiple output plugins for this thing, you could actually, if the data that we're pulling back to our server side and our solution isn't enough, you could actually deliver it straight out to whatever visualization solution you have, and that's exactly what we'll be implementing here in just a moment. So what do we have in terms of the proof of concept? We've got a custom distro and a Yachto image in a public Git repo that's just hosted on my GitHub. It's pretty straightforward. It adds Fluent Bit and the basic configuration of it, delivers data to an Elastic Search instance, and which is able to be visualized in Kibana. It's specifically not, this proof of concept is specifically designed not to be a horizon implementation, but it's very similar to what we have implemented in our horizon solution. And I also, as part of the Git repository, I have a Docker setup to allow you to actually easily run the server, which we'll look at here in a second. So image recipe for those that are familiar with Yachto metadata, you see how simple this is. All we're doing is taking the base core image and we're adding one recipe to it. So it's pretty straightforward to use. So in terms of how we've modified the Fluent Bit recipe, we've actually got a number of custom config files here. You see the highlighted line there. That's the one configuration point you'll need to do if you're wanting to replicate this environment. You just specify that fleet server URI in your config file. For my setup, I just use the IP address of the machine that I happen to be running. And it's pretty straightforward. This is the Docker compose file that I use for the server side. And you see that it defines two services. One is Elastic Search. That's the actual database, the time series database that the Fluent Bit agent is sending the data to. And then there's the Kibana instance, which is the visualization as well as the web front end. And it's communicating with the Elastic Search back end and pulling the data and being able to split. And just in terms of how you use it, here's the instructions here.  Doesn't really matter what. And then you just add the one extra layer to your system, specify that fleet server URI in your configuration, and then build that custom image that I generated. And in terms of the setup for the server, it's pretty straightforward, just run a single Docker compose command. Any system that happens to be able to run Docker containers can run this thing pretty straightforwardly. So they say, if your material isn't terribly interesting, just beef it up with some colors. So I figured before we get into the demo, we'll get a nice cloudy colored image here. So let's take a look here real quick at the demo. So we're on our server here. You see that this is actually running on my machine back in my home network. I've got the two services that you would have expected here. I happen to have two Kimu instances running, and we see that it periodically is collecting that information out of the configuration file and sending it back up to the server. So real quickly, let's take a look at some of these config files. So these are just text files that get added to the configuration and delivered. So if we want to take a look at the input CPU, this is where we're delivering information about CPU usage and that kind of thing. The host address is the server that it's going to. We're adding a little bit in the filter information. We're matching anything about the CPU, I'm adding the host name in as one of the fields of each of the records. Just gives us the ability in the Kibana interface to actually say, okay, which system is producing this particular information. So with that, we've got our two systems here and let's jump over here. So this will go right along with my mad diagramming skills, also my UIUX expertise here in this lovely interface. It's pretty straightforward. I've got a single visualization here based on CPU usage. It's running, pulling it out every minute or so. Let's go ahead and maximize this so we can see. We'll go ahead and refresh, see if it's able to pull in new data and if the demo gods are with me, we'll see this moving and you see it hasn't changed a whole lot, but just to make it interesting, we can come back over here and we can run our stress test. I guess that's, so we will run a 30 second stress test and so now we should, with any luck, see the CPU usage spike just as expected. So, you know, obviously, this isn't the most interesting display in the world, but we'll let that run for a second and we can also just, so we are aware of how we can add to this. We'll go ahead and create another visualization. In this case, we'll take a look at memory usage. So, in here, we're selecting anything that's got this board underscore star, regx, that's how fluent bit sends the information. So now we come down here and say what fields are we interested in? So we'll go ahead and say memory usage. We're gonna just grab this and drop it here. So now we're looking at a bar vertical stacked, which, since they're independent devices, I don't really want it stacked. I'm just gonna change it to a regular vertical bar. And then the other thing I wanna do, I wanna group it by the host name. So this is how we're able to see the devices up against each other. So we'll go ahead and select that and we save this and now we have added to our visualization. And similarly, if we, I believe, if I remember the syntax, right. What's that? I'm just learning this new, the stress test app, but so now we're starting to see some more memory usage. So that kind of gives you the idea. Kibana, I did wanna bring this up. Kibana, there's a lot of very interesting visualizations out there. I found this blog post, which I thought was pretty interesting. These are supposed to be live visualizations, but I clicked through a lot of them and they didn't actually seem to have any data in them. So the screenshots give you a better sense of some of the things you can do. So if you're just using Kibana to visualize this data, this is actually a really good site to kind of give you an idea of some of the different things you can look at. I think, yeah, when I looked at this earlier today, this was actually pulling live data from a Google Cloud compute situation, somebody's Google Cloud environment. So there's a lot of different things you can do directly with this and obviously you can embed these graphs in other systems and that kind of thing. So there's a lot of very useful information in there. And I think with that, we've got some time for questions before beer if I can figure out why this is not letting me maximize my screen. So, any questions? Kevin, evidently so. I didn't dig too much into the server side of things. Fluent bit is very, the recipe is already there and then those configuration files send data over in a format that Kibana was able to view directly. Not today, obviously in this proof of concept we're definitely not but the question is with Log Stash, you can obviously do a lot more than we're doing here and are we able to do pull things like system D logs and D messages and things like that. It's not something that we have implemented in Verizon. It's not something I have implemented in here but that certainly can be done as part of this. Once you've got the flow of data between the systems then adding more data to it is easy to do. Yeah, yeah and that's exactly what Log Stash has intended to provide from the research I've done on it. It's less time series data and more just log searching, sorting and filtering and that kind of thing. And there are lots of solutions for that and that certainly would be kind of the next step for enhancing something like this when you're implementing that in your system. Mender is working on implementing something like that. We're working on implementing something like that but at the moment it's early days we don't know exactly what it's gonna end up looking like. Yes. Yeah, so the question is what can you do to respond to situations that are detected by this and there are certainly additional packages that you can integrate with API access between the systems, you can always do that in terms of what we're gonna implement with Torizon. I'm sure there will be some sense of being able to respond to these things. For the purposes of what I was doing here it was really about the visualization so I wasn't trying to implement something like that but yeah, certainly you could do that. Once you have the data, the next question becomes what are you gonna do with it at that point? Right, so the question is what's the server side component of Fluentbit? And in this case it's the elastic search database. We're sending the data directly to the elastic search stack running on the server side and I would assume you can send it to just about any database with an appropriate output plugin and filtering and that kind of thing so they work together well but it's not necessarily required that they go together. There are lots of options that you can plug and play with. Okay, so for the recording the comment was that in a lot of cases Fluentbit is actually running on the server side and then the data's being delivered there and it can be then delivered on to other containers or other servers or that kind of thing so I guess that's where the historical where Fluentbit came from but obviously for the IoT space we're more interested in it running as a client side daemon on the devices in the field. Any other questions, Einstein? Yeah, so in terms of the way we're setting it up the metrics that you get, anything basically that you can pull out of the system. So if we take a look at these configuration files, we've got information about, let's see what's in the, about networking and these things are all kind of predefined as part of Fluentbit so we're not actually defining anything custom here. We're just pulling stock telemetry that is generic to all systems but you could write custom input plugins that would pull application specific information and that kind of thing and of course what Kevin was talking about in terms of the logging that opens up a lot more flexibility for you as well. Yeah, fair enough, that's a good point. Yeah, the point is yeah, so we've got the name here ES so instead of Kibana being able to read the Fluentbit data, we're actually using an elastic stack output plugin that's specific for elastic stack, yeah, absolutely. All right, very good, any other questions? How do we do on time, so we're a little bit early so there's a time for more beer. All right guys, thanks for coming out.


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Yeah, we'll get some sapphire wookies going later There's a purple purple shot code Daniel bellinger Cody bellinger. No, no wrong sport. It's a hollow George Kittle Danny great. I'll send you a link to the website here. I got your Metro If you are interested in a personal we won't be doing any more personal still tomorrow night at five But we'll be going till midnight tomorrow on five to midnight So we got plenty of room tomorrow if you're looking for a personal We do have some national breaks and promos going on right now So Danny Gray purple shock Skyler Thompson say gridiron Kings. Johan Dotson Skyler Thompson Purple shock. Oh Buddha Baker Khalil Shakir. Come on downtown Where you at? Where you at downtown? There's a Russ Wilson legendary logos Broncos Sam Williams purple shock of son Haskins Burks Mike whites Devon Lloyd Purple shock nice one there Christian Watson for the Packers You should have a good year with Jordan Love the gridiron Kings London and Arnold Epiketti a Falcons there and the purple shock very Sanders Ty Chandler on downtown. Where you at white hot rookies bry Rob? Romeo Dobbs. Oh, we got a blue. This one is um Blue pattern of Rashad white rated rookie and see one of these Nice one there and Kenny pick it nice one there on the purple shock rated rookie. They're Steelers nice KP Algiers Yeah, I believe so Brian. I believe so It's got like the fish around them right for like the Atlanta Aquarium. I think it is Like surrounded by fish purple shock rated rookie Rashad white Boy my face rookies insert Alec Pierce and purple of Keontae Ingram and rated rookie Sam Howe Howl there to rel Mcduffie. 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I do Purple shocks look great and you get it's only rated rookies on the purple shocks too. So pretty good chance of getting a good one Say a Kwanoo rated rookie purple shock Hi Chandler I agree with you though, sir. I do like these the shocks Hollow Montgomery got Trayvon Walker first pick in the draft Purple shock is Montrell Washington for the Bronco's Just one left guys who's grabbing the last one Optic team all coming up next will be a another 20 bucks full case Got Pickens rookies purple of Kyle Hamilton and Olava Say Christian Watson hollow rated rookie Have a kneel and guys just one left Optic team all coming up next Yes Connor should be oh and team all I'm not sure team all definitely in blasters I'm not sure on the team all Connor Not a hundred percent sure. Yeah, we haven't seen one yet retro series Bradshaw The big hits in that is the rated rookie autos to 11 the red stars. I mean looking for some of those There's a 100s James Connor And purple shock Benoto. I got you William. Yeah, I didn't think so. We hadn't seen any so Yeah, looking like no on that one Connor the Tua Maddie Corral Purple shock nice one there Aiden Hutchinson the Lions Jordan Davis There's a Devontae Wyatt purple shock Sold out yep sold out appreciate that guys will get um optic team all full case going next You shut you helping us fill up here. Nope. Not yet. So not yet looking for one still Still looking for it Hey, appreciate you getting in Connor Good to see you again, sir. We're off this burger. We got my house my homie Jordan Davis. Hope everyone's been having a good Thursday night Appreciate every hanging out with us Kevin Harris purple shock rated rookie definitely hit the like button guys if you're enjoying the stream Me and Donnie appreciate that This one is auto signature series auto Nico Collins for the Texans We're auto out of here Nico Collins second year order for the Texans and a sauce nice one there on the hollow hollow sauce Jalen Tolbert purple shock of Tyrion Davis price Nicoby Dean Lee series rookies London and purple shock Mathis Michi hollow Dickerson McCreary on going guys See downtown here legendary logos Tyreek Finns there's a Azucama rated rookie purple and Ritter Darren Waller and Stingley Giants Darren Waller you forgetting about that Purple shock tight Chandler Ebner Leet series J-Melt got a Trayvon Walker rated rookie and Zappy rated rookie Hollow Baceli Brian Cook ready guys got six left My house bossa rated rookie Zappy back-to-back Zappies Trayvon Walker purple shock Bateman on the front. 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There's a Jaquan brisker purple shock Kind of three left guys on the full case flawless Collegiate division style get four bought four teams per case there or per spot Four left guys come on See some fire my house Joe Burrow Jermaine Johnson There's a taekwong Thornton on the negative variation rated rookie nice one there haven't seen any of these Variation rated rookie there for the Patriots and a purple shock Rucker See any of those actually there's a hollow rated rookie Hasan Haskins Sam Williams purple shocks and mere whites Traylon Burks rookie Domators tractor Cito. We've got a Carson strong purple hollow Clinton Portis Kyle Phillips Three left and right you guys got optic team all coming up next. We are full. So I'll just type in some names and we'll get a random going appreciate you legendary logos Malik Willis Romeo Dobbs Purple shock Johan Dotson Tyler Algier Hollow digs Alec Pierce There purple shock Kenny pick it Nice one there Steelers two purple shocks and a hollow Kenny Very nice It'll take that Great Iron Kings Berks got Rashad white purple Sam Howell ready a rookie base I'm a rel Homer already rookie Cam Taylor Britt. No, definitely not a Homer Two left guys two left Good luck Optic blasters will get some optic team all going next legendary logos Jamar Chase and Sam Howell ready a rookie base Rashad white purple shock McDuffie Harrison Smith and Ferguson refractor. There's a Keontae Ingram purple shock David Bell Garrett will send the rookies and I got a sauce gardener on the purple shock rated rookie nice jets packed there Emerson hollow is Deandre Swift and Kate Otten Right you guys down to our last box here. Good luck Optic blaster case. This was case number two Get a team all case going next Legendary logos fields for the Bears Christian Watson ready a rookie Evan Neil ready a rookie Giants eva ketie a Walter Peyton Malik Willis ready a rookie You packs left by Robinson rated rookie Timidote Rookies Christian Watson and ready rookie but no toe Last pack here guys. This was the full case blaster. Got a Jelani Woods hollow rated rookie and V-less Jones Alrighty there guys. That'll do it for the Donors optic football full blaster case there 20 boxes number two. No real no hit recap on this one Just a couple autos there Alrighty guys, we'll get optic team all coming up next. Thank you. Thank you


I should say my next book, which will be out in September, published by Penguin all over the world, is going to be called The Shifts and The Shocks, and it is about, I think it will be reasonably the broadest book that has appeared about the global financial crisis. That is to say it will cover both sides of the Atlantic, roughly equally. It covers the macroeconomics of the crisis, by which I mean the global macroeconomics of the crisis, including the role of the global imbalances and shifts in income distribution in the macro preconditions, as well as the change of the financial system and the pressures on the financial system. About a quarter of it is directly about the eurozone, and there is even some discussion of Ireland. So I feel that you all have to buy it and read it. Reading it without buying it is no good, though actually in truth I will be earning out the advance for so long maybe the cost all falls on Penguin, so I don't really care. That's also on the record, though I'd rather you didn't tell Penguin that I said it. Okay, what I am amazed by the size of the audience, impressed and slightly disturbed. If I prorate this for a London audience I couldn't imagine any comparable audience there. So I'm beginning to wonder whether Dublin has as many interesting activities going on as I used to think. So what I'm going to do is set out in about 20, 25 minutes my view of the broad eurozone crisis. Why it happened, what has been done to deal with it and what is needed to fix this. I have the fear that talking to you here about this is a pretty silly idea because you know already everything I'm going to say, either because you've experienced it or because some of you have even read what I've written. But I don't have a completely new set of ideas, so I'm afraid this is going to be a case of repetition. When I first joined the FT, my then editor, I went to my then editor when I just wrote an editorial, I was then the chief leader writer and I said, you know, we wrote this last week and he said, that's not a problem, Martin, repetition is the essence of journalism. So you are going to get repetition. So what I, if this all works, it's called the future of a bad monetary marriage. And these are the things I'm going to cover. I think the idea of a marriage is a nice metaphor. I found it very useful. One of my chapters is about this, essentially, and I followed these very, very closely because I've been in this position or more or less the FT for more than a quarter of a century. So I followed all the negotiations from the De Law Commission onwards and I know and have talked to pretty well all the major participants in those discussions. And it seemed to me all along that what was being created was essentially a marriage without divorce, without any possibility of divorce in practice or in theory. And that's not the sort of thing that nowadays we think is rather very sensible among couples. But we decided, it was decided in Europe this is what was needed in money. And it was clear why, because of course if it's, if it can be revoked, it's going to create crises of its own. We know that. So the idea was that this would be a permanent monetary marriage. When my view, more or less completely consistently, I'm actually consistent on this, is that none of the necessary conditions, economic, political, or financial, for making such a monetary marriage work actually existed. There are crises were likely, though I have to say the actual crisis was far worse than I'd envisaged. I lacked the imagination to envisage this scale of crisis. And then the interesting question would be, what would happen next? And that's what we're living through. And we found out some very interesting things about what would happen next. And one of them is that indeed, as I thought, breaking it up, divorce is almost impossible. And that has its own consequences in the way the marriage will work. One of them pretty obviously being that if divorce is really unthinkable, the creditor country or countries have absolute power in the system. That's an unnecessary part of a monetary marriage without a credible divorce, because they have nothing, they have no reason to buy off the potential, the potential levers. That's a very important point I'll come to later. So I'm going to cover four topics. First, the illusions in the honeymoon period, which was essentially the first 10 years of the currency union. Then what it's like living in a bad marriage, you know all about that, but I'm going to just make this a bit broader. Then I'm going to stress this point that I've just made, which I think is really important, that is not made often enough, which is the fact that really nobody regards exit as plausible or desirable strategy has profound implications for the nature of the bargaining on how a crisis is resolved. And then I'm finally going to discuss what I think would need to be done to make this a pretty tolerable marriage. And by a good marriage, I should say this now, I've got this in my book, by a good marriage I mean one such that every member country would, if asked now, knowing what it does now, be very happy to join, which I think is probably not the condition today. So let me start with the honeymoon illusions. Essentially the first 10 years of the Eurozone delivered more or less what everybody wanted. And this is one of the best examples. I have no in economics of being, be careful what you wish for. You might actually get it. So essentially it delivered to northern Europe a return to large export surpluses, prudent fiscal policy, external competitiveness, and a powerful credit opposition. And meanwhile it delivered to what is sometimes called the peripheral, I think of the vulnerable countries, massive credit booms in many cases, huge current account deficits, really huge, financed by these credit booms, very low interest rates, and really in a number of cases, certainly including in Ireland, an extraordinary boom. And that is very briefly the picture I want to show you. I don't know if anyone at the back can see these charts, but these just remind you what a remarkable period this honeymoon was. And I focused here on the two most important of the vulnerable countries, merely to avoid cluttering everything up, namely Italy and Spain. And this looks at the spread on government 10-year bond yields over bunts since January 95. And it's sort of a wonderfully symmetrical picture. Many of you, I'm sure, are familiar with it, but it's so remarkable because, of course, if you remember, and I do, back in the mid-90s, spreads were very high. These reflected exchange rate risk, which in turn reflected inflation risk. And in the mid-1990s, there was, in addition, genuine default concerns, particularly about Italy. I remember these very well, real interest rates, shot to very high levels. And in the run-up to joining the Eurozone, as it became credible they would join the Eurozone, and then throughout the first 10 years of the Eurozone, 10, 12 years, all that's disappeared. There were tremendous windfall gains for everybody. And things were absolutely wonderful. And you will remember, because it's very noteworthy, I think it was in 2006, it might be in 2005, you will know me. You will know this. There was actually a brief period when Irish sovereign spreads were negative. That is to say, the Irish government was deemed more credit worthy than the German government. And I remember thinking at the time that this was interesting. It was one of the things I used to use when I went around doing rather plaintive presentations to people in markets back in 2006 and 2007 when I said, when I was asking, where's all the risk gone? What on earth is going on here? Does this make any sense to you? It doesn't make any sense to me. Anyway, as you know, from the crisis onwards, that reversed, it reversed almost perfectly. That was a single of the crisis until the summer of 2012. And I'm going to come to that later. We all know what happened in the summer of 2012. The ECB decided to act as lender of last resort. Now the second chart, what I call the structural mercantilist, is I think a chart of absolutely decisive importance in understanding what's happened in the eurozone. And it focused obviously on the most important credit nation, Germany. And how Germany has managed its macroeconomic policy situation over the last 20 years. Now the interesting point is that Germany has historically, of course, had a large foreign surplus for most of the last half century, 60 years, actually. But in the early 90s, well, in fact, the whole of the 1990s, this disappeared. It ran a large government deficit, which is the red rectangle. It ran a large current account deficit. It ran a small current account deficit. Not a small largest, a small current account deficit. And it ran a large fiscal deficit. Its private sector had its normal surplus, but relatively small. And this was, of course, the unification boom. And then at the end of the 1990s, it lost competitiveness in the process, though the current account always was close to balance. It never had a huge deficit. But basically, Germany saw the opportunity to pursue in the eurozone, in the euro area, a totally different macro policy. Or as I put it, it went back to its traditional policy. It eliminated its fiscal deficit. That is the pink square. So you can see by 2005, it was basically back to 2006. It was back to balance. It was all the unification deficits had went. The private sector increasingly retrenched. And it became a gigantic surplus country. And that's the green, which is chose, by the way, a negative sum, because it's the net capital outflow, which is just the inverse of the current account deficit. This structure, and this is the crucial point, has remained absolutely unchanged throughout the crisis. So Germany has remained throughout a large current account surplus country with an enormous private sector surplus, absolutely enormous private sector surplus, no government deficit whatsoever. It is a country looking for places to invest. It is now actually the world's biggest creditor country on a flow basis. And that is the economy at the heart of Europe. And it has a very important implications. As long as it has this structure, it cannot be a net contributor to demand in the eurozone. It can only be neutral or a net withdrawal of demand in the eurozone. As it has been throughout. And this is a very, very important, decisive, contingent fact about the eurozone. And it hasn't changed at all in the crisis. Today, by the way, if you look at the most recent figures from the IMF, it has no fiscal deficit. So its private surplus goes directly into the current surplus. But of course, the current surplus is no longer with the eurozone, but with other countries. And this brings me to my third chart, which is about the imbalances within the eurozone as a whole. And this is a decisive part of understanding what has been going on through the crisis, which I think is essentially a capital flows external imbalances crisis, not a fiscal deficit crisis. I don't have time to go into that in detail, but I've made this point many times. I'm going to come to it briefly. This shows what the current account balance of the eurozone has looked like since 1998 with the IMF forecast up to 2018. So the surpluses of Germany and other surplus countries, of which the Netherlands was the most important, by the way, are at the top. They're above the line, so Germany is red. And the other surplus countries are pale blue. And that surplus went from very, very small, about 2,000. Germany had actually a small deficit to an enormous surplus relative to eurozone GDP in the 2000s. And the surplus of these surplus countries, as again, in the crisis, not changed at all. They continue to be massive surplus countries. But through the period of the great boom in the peripheral Europe, which I've already talked about, there was enormous deficits emerging in the rest of Europe. And that's where, effectively, most of these surpluses went. And of those countries, what I call the vulnerable countries in dark blue, by the way, in absolute terms, incomparably the most important is Spain. Because of its size and economy, it became, actually, I think the second largest deficit country in the world after the United States, which is an extraordinary fact in its deficit, ran to 10% of GDP. Needless to say, it hardly needs to be said. Now, every last sue of this capital inflow, I'm slightly exaggerating, was wasted. Now, that's quite important. It would have been rather different if it hadn't been, but it was. Most of it went into construction booms, housing booms, or very large fiscal deficits. But the latter was basically only true in Greece. The overall balance is shown in the Eurozone line, which I've shown you here, which is roughly in balance. And since the crisis hit, and this is immensely important in understanding the dilemmas the Eurozone now faces, all the deficits have been eliminated. All the surplus remain as they were. So the Eurozone is now the biggest surplus region in the world, which is, of course, not surprisingly why it has a very strong exchange rate, and would likely have a persistent, these strong exchange rate. And it has, is therefore, in aggregate now, looking for good opportunities to invest outside the Eurozone. Net, it is a huge net creditor, and it is, of course, finding huge problems in finding those good opportunities elsewhere, particularly given the difficulties the emerging economies are in. And it's one of the reasons I'm really quite pessimistic, more pessimistic than many about the future of the world economy, because I don't think that the world can easily absorb the excess savings that have now emerged in the Eurozone because of the smashing of the economies of the previous deficit countries. So let me move on to what happened then, the depressions, what happened to competitiveness, what happened to secular stagnation, the Larry Summers theme, I know he's been here, he's probably talked about that, and what's happening to deflation, low-fation, and the pains of adjustment. First of all, just to remind you what you all know, I don't include Greece here because it destroys comparisons. The Greek economy is shrunk by 25%, but I'd just like to emphasize the, what actually is quite interesting is up, this is up to the end of last year, so I don't have the very latest figures, no, sorry, it includes the first quarter of this year. Essentially, the crisis hit countries, except Greece, are all between 7% and 9% smaller than they were in the first quarter of 2008. None of them are showing really strong growth, but Portugal and Ireland are clearly the most successful recovery cases, neither Spain nor Italy. Italy is terrible, Spain's recovery is also very weak, but more important for our purposes, and I will come to that in a moment, the entire Eurozone economy, which I have in green, is showing essentially no growth whatsoever for the last four years, and though it's got a very weak recovery at the moment, it's still smaller than it was four years earlier, let alone six years earlier. And part of the reason for that is Germany, the motor of the economy, the Eurozone economy itself are actually growing rather slowly, much more weekly than the United States, I don't have time to go into that, and in addition to that, Germany, as I said, is not a net exporter of demand at any point in this whole crisis. Unemployment rates have exploded, this just shows the picture for all the countries, Eurozone unemployment rates are about 12%, Spain and Greece are in the mid-20s to 30, which is catastrophic levels, Irish unemployment rates are falling, as you know, though still very high, actually very, very close now to the levels for Italy, and you've actually come out underneath them, the Irish unemployment performance is the best of the crisis countries, but these are very dismal figures and they are almost certain to stay at these sorts of levels forever. There were massive losses of competitiveness, this has been recouped successfully to a remarkable extent, these are whole economy unit labor costs relative to Germany, by Ireland, which is in dark blue, Portugal has been much less successful, but it is recovering, unfortunately and crucially, I think for the future of the Eurozone, the one major economy that is not restoring its competitiveness at all is Italy, and since it's far and away the most important, this is really quite worrying, remember Italy's as big as all the other countries put together that are in crisis in terms of the economy, actually it's bigger, so it's failure to restore competitiveness, which has to do of course with the Italian labor market and its long-term productivity stagnation is a very disturbing sign for the future, now I want to look at what's happened more closely because it bears directly on what the ECB has been doing and what I regard as the complete failure of monetary policy in the Eurozone, to look at what has happened to nominal and real GDP for the Eurozone as a whole, so let's think of the Eurozone as like the United States, except that the ECB can only deal with the economy as a whole, it can't do much about the individual components, so this is what has happened, the red line is real GDP and it just repeats what you've seen but it's shown more clearly the extent of the stagnation of the Eurozone is really quite striking, I mean that really is a dire performance, in fact, in terms of periods below the starting point it's dramatic, it is worth noting, though I don't have it here, if you allow for the shift in the external balance, which I already mentioned, which is more than 3% of GDP, real domestic demand in the Eurozone is now between six and 7%, I don't know the exact figure, I think it's about 6.5% below where it was in 2008 and that's what the central bank controls or might control in a low inflation environment, it's got no constraints, so it has failed. The blue line shows nominal GDP, many people argue, monetaries argue, that nominal GDP is a variable that a central bank could reasonably be expected to do, to target, if even if it can't target, it should actually at least be doing fairly well on nominal GDP again. What is striking is that nominal GDP in the Eurozone is 4% higher than it was in 2008 first quarter, over six years that is, so essentially it's been growing by about 0.7% a year, less than that, 0.6% a year over this period and I have to say, I regard that as a completely appalling performance by the central bank. Normally, if things were growing reasonably, say nominal GDP was growing at 3% a year, which is, it would of course have increased by more than 20% over this period. This is what's happened to monetary growth in the Eurozone, focus on the blue line which is broad money, remember this is supposed to be the air of the, the ECB is supposed to be the air of the Bundesbank, well essentially monetary growth has stopped and it stopped because of course credit growth has stopped, again a very clear and massive failure of policy. The, this picture shows again what's happened to GDP in the Eurozone relative to the 95 to 2007 trend and the blue line shows the deviations from that trend and essentially the point I want to make is that at the end of last year, the economy was 14% smaller than would have been implied by the utterly miserable trend that existed before that. So again, the economy has basically fallen into total stagnation. Core inflation has been below 1%, below 2%, which is allegedly the target since early 2008. There was a brief uptick to one and a half percent in 2011-12, it's now fallen well below 1%, so it seems to me absolutely clear that in their terms of their own inflation target, ECB has failed utterly and of course this is a mess, but this has very big consequences for the adjustment process. So here I'm looking at the core inflation across Germany, which is the purple line, so it's this one, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Portugal and Spain. Greece is in full fledged and massive deflation, Spain is in deflation, Portugal is in deflation, Ireland is in very low inflation, Italy is roughly at Germany's level. These very low inflation rates are of course necessary to regain competitiveness, particularly in economies with very low productivity growth and some of them are very low productivity growth, but of course that has the terrible tendency that it raises the real value of debt in the denominated in euros. So the adjustment process in this very low inflation environment creates a debt deflation problem, which is ongoing and as things are, is likely to get worse. So in my view, this amounts to a very big mess and a very major failure of policy in dealing with the crisis that hit the eurozone, which I would like to point out and I just have to bring back, in terms of its relationship to the total economy, the total economy of the eurozone, this fund crisis was much smaller than that in the US because it was concentrated predominantly, the financial crisis concentrated predominantly in quite a small part of the economy. Spain was much the most important, but Spain itself is not that big a component of the eurozone economy. My memory is it's about 10%. So it's extraordinary how damaging this has been and this underlines the point I made about the problems of this. Now let me go to the last bits, which are much shorter, but get to the real heart of it. When the crisis hit, all sorts of questions were arose about whether it was possible to imagine breakup and at various stages as my recent, the recent excellent articles by my colleague Peter Spiegel has brought up, there was actually serious discussion of breakup, but it became obvious to everybody who thought about breakup that it was almost impossible to imagine any way of doing a partial breakup that even a Greek exit, a Grexit, which wouldn't lead immediately to contagion, panic, an enormous crisis, which the eurozone had no way of dealing with. Comprehensive breakup was never even considered. And so in this situation, since the, as I pointed out already, the countries that were vulnerable in trouble really couldn't even think about breakup, that meant they more or less had to accept the terms since they'd lost creditworthiness, the terms imposed upon them for staying in. And the terms, as we know, were very tough in terms of fiscal policy, very tough in terms of structural reform and very tough in terms of long-term fiscal rules and the emergence of what I think of, I've described in some of my columns as a discipline union, a union in which essentially incredibly tight discipline is imposed on member country governments through essentially judicial and technocratic procedures and associated with that with a loss, a major loss of sovereignty. That's basically the outcome. And of course, one of the reasons a breakup is unthinkable is it certainly would have enormous global consequences. So that then leads me to the last point I wanted to make. Is it possible to go beyond this discipline union? I think it is ultimately unworkable, unwise and politically intolerable. I cannot imagine that in the very long run, democratically elected governments can survive in a system in which they have so little sovereign discretion and in which there is also essentially no democratic governance at the center. And this supports the view that I've always held that in the long run, a monetary union, a fiat money union, it's not a gold standard, truly requires a democratic legitimacy at the center and that is raised, that's a fundamental political issue. But there's also of course, a fundamental analytical issue and that is to recognize that the core problem here was never fiscal, it was financial. And because it was financial, that means that the creditors are just as implicated in this as the debtors. The creditors were the one who lent the money foolishly in my view is that foolish investors are just as much to blame as foolish borrowers for the outcome. And that, if it had been properly understood and accepted, would have could have led or should have led in a different bargaining process to acceptance of what I think of as an adjustment union namely one that is committed to symmetrical adjustment and an insurance union, one in which the ECB is not the only or main provider of insurance to sovereigns. So what I think is needed for the future is to manage this now and in future crisis because there surely will be future crisis is a system that enforces symmetrical adjustment of income and spending across the union, which is now totally utterly and completely lacking as I've demonstrated to you in terms of the absolute non-adjustment of the core countries of the crisis. There's been none whatsoever, not even a little. Second, there has to be an adjustment, a mechanism for just financing adjustment, preventing unbelievably deep crises through fiscal support and monetary support. The ECB's outright monetary transactions program was astonishingly successful, but nobody really knows whether it will be workable if actually called upon and I must say I remain a profound skeptic about whether it could actually be made to work. There is a third fundamental issue which is that sovereigns, which are only semi-sovereign in the currency union are probably going to have to accept debt restructurings in extremis and certainly in the case of the present crisis, I cannot imagine that Greece can survive without the debt restructuring and I am increasingly concerned about the path of Italy, whose debt is enormous and whose economy is growing very, very slowly. So there's a big issue about how debt restructuring and finally, we clearly need a minimal federal union, something that very different from what there was beforehand and beyond what they have now. To me, a banking union is more than what is currently being planned because a banking union has to include in a genuine, really serious crisis the possibility of government support for the banking system. I don't believe you can resolve a first-class panic through resolution processes without exacerbating the crisis. That was a view I held when I was operating in the Independent Commission on Banking. The only way out of that will be to have immensely much more capital in banks than we do now and nobody is really contemplating that solution, the Admarti-Helvick solution. So the banking union is to me very questionable because it's not clear that it has a fiscal backup. Second, a banking system, this is a point that Kevin O'Rourke has made, among others, a very great Irish economist, a banking system needs genuinely safe assets, unimpeachably safe assets to hold liquidity, it's liquidity in, at the moment, the only such assets in any large quantity are German debt. It seems to me very strange that it should be the debt of one country that performs this role and it is the most important function for a future Eurobonds and it's one of the reasons why I think some form of Eurobond will ultimately need it to back up the banking system. Third, the ECB and or fiscal policy but most of the ECB has to be feel freer to act in support of the economy from a macroeconomic point of view. It's been far too constrained, felt far too constrained and as a result is now very close to allowing deflation and of course all this requires a degree of fiscal union. There's a question of how that might work and the details we can discuss afterwards and of course that, as I've already indicated, means a degree, a greater degree of political union to make a fiscal union work. I should stress and I'll leave you with this last chart, right now largely because of the OMT but also because of the efforts of member countries, spreads have more or less disappeared, you all know this, so everybody thinks everything is completely and utterly safe. I hope I have done enough to indicate that might be seriously over optimistic though of course Ireland will be fine so don't worry about that but there are other countries that are in real trouble and I think it's not difficult to imagine situations in which some form of crisis will recur. As I said I'm already particularly concerned about the Italian situation and in any case in the long run I remain convinced as I've been for 25 years and most German economists thought 25 years ago, 25 years ago that a stable, durable currency union requires a greater degree of political integration and a greater degree of mutual support and assistance than is available in the current one. Some genuine improvements have been made in the last few years, they are genuine improvements but in my view they're not enough and as long as that's the case the next financial crisis is likely to be a systemic crisis again because it interacts with this very weak institutional framework that the Eurozone has and in the long run therefore these failures and defects have to be fixed if it is to work well for Europe because I accept, this is my very last point that break up really is unthinkable because the carnage it would cause. I'm sorry I went on too long but I hope I've at least introduced my perspective on this crisis satisfactorily.