Good morning. Welcome to CMC markets on Friday the 2nd of December and this quick look at the week ahead with me Michael Houston starting the 5th of December and It's certainly I think been a fairly interesting week in The wider scheme of things November another strong month for European stock markets the DAX closed the month 8.6% higher the FTSE 100 may gains a 6.74% At the same time the March higher in the US dollar Has come to a shattering halt With the greenback posting its biggest monthly decline Since 2010 certainly the last two months have been a welcome respite for stock markets after a year that at one point Saw the likes of the DAX and the S&P 500 firmly in bear market territory and now here we are testing a very key Resistance level on the DAX the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement of the entire Down move from the highs this year to the lows back in October I think the bigger question now Is whether this is a bear market rally Or the beginning of a move to new highs Now with the end of year coming up It's highly unlikely that we won't know We're certain until early next year simply because I think Given the direction of travel when it comes to the economic data there has been Rising or increasing evidence of a softening Of economic data particularly when it comes to manufacturing What we're also seeing is a little bit of a softening in the inflation numbers and Powell's comments to the Brookings Institute on Wednesday This week would appear to suggest that the Fed is quite comfortable with the idea Of a slower pace of rate hikes going forward So I think the bigger question here Is whether or not Not whether or not rather we get a 50 basis point hike In just under two weeks time It's really a question of what comes after that And I think that will be a big determinant Of the type of market volatility that we get In 2023 So You know Essentially, you know, what's what's the next few days Got in store for us. Well, certainly the payrolls numbers Later today They're likely to show A slowing In the pace of job job job gains The expectation is for around about 200,000 jobs to be added But the ADP payrolls report earlier this week showed a significant softening of the headline number 127,000 And when you break the numbers down Service sector growth was for service sector job growth was fairly decent But manufacturing saw a net loss of 87,000 The manufacturing ism earlier this week Also pointed to weaker employment component Weaker prices paid And a perception perhaps that inflation has peaked Something that I've been suggesting has been the case for at least the last four or five weeks Certainly seeing in the PPI numbers Particularly out of Germany and Italy And this morning out of Europe which saw the annual number drop from 41.9 percent to 30.8 Was a month on month decline of minus 2.9 So we've got central bankers trying to convince the markets that they're going to continue hiking Because they're not convinced that Inflation is coming down in a sustainable fashion But if you actually look at some of these monthly declines, but also year on year declines Or softening There does appear to be a suggestion that Given the fact that central bankers were late to the party when it comes to dropping the transitory narrative They're going to be similarly late in recognizing that inflation is coming down an awful lot faster than perhaps They think that it is So while we can expect 50 basis point rate hikes from the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of England And just under two weeks time While central bankers are talking tough The bigger question is what comes after that? Will it be further rate hikes? And if they are will there be 25 25 basis points in nature? Or will they will they continue in 50 basis point increments that More than anything is the bigger question And I think the bigger question that really does need to be addressed Will central bankers run the risk of continuing to tighten aggressively at a time when the data is clearly showing Um, but the economy is heading for a slowdown in 2023. Now. There's an awful lot of uncertainty about china and obviously the latest china trade numbers that you out on the 7th of december And they're likely to point to an even more significant weakening And the exports and imports data over and above what we saw In october and october exports declined 0.3 percent That was the worst performance this year as well as the worst performance in two and a half years Speaking to falling global demand for chinese goods As well as a continued disruption in supply chains caused by china zero covet kerbs What was more interesting was in a note that I wrote earlier this week The durries composite shipping container index Hosted its 39th successive weekly decline So that shows that freight rates are coming down I'm coming down quite substantially 70 lower than they were this time last year They're still above pre-pandemic levels But nonetheless they have fallen precipitously over the course of the past year Now that could be as a consequence of lower global trade It could be a consequence of overcapacity irrespective of the reasons for that Prices are a lot lower. So we're seeing significant evidence of deflation or disinflation In the supply chains more globally. So in terms of october china trade numbers, they were weak november November's are likely to be even weaker We could well see exports slide to minus 4.2 percent and imports slide by minus 6.7 percent A large part of the import decline will be obviously weaker domestic demand because of rising covid rates And covid lockdowns now there is some chatter that china might look at relaxing some of its more onerous covid restrictions But that doesn't mean the chinese economy is going to count rebounding back strongly It just means that the restrictions may not be as onerous But ultimately when you put the fear of god into your population about covid Um, they're not likely to come out of hibernation particularly quickly. So what does that mean for markets? Well, we've seen strong gains and we are approaching some key resistance levels not only on the dax but on the s and p 500 Let's look at this trend line here through the highs from Earlier this year. We're really at a very key inflection point on the footsie 100 We are above the 200 day moving average What was significant is we haven't broken above this trend line from the peaks through here So we are at a potential tipping point. The dollar is weaker That is significant the dollar is likely to potentially get weaker still if that happens Then you could see a significant move Back into stock markets over and above what we've seen already the us 10 year yield is quite significant This looks like a potential head and shoulders break out to the downside Which would appear to suggest That an economic slowdown is coming and that longer term rates could well be coming down as well This break here if it is confirmed Could we'll see a break towards 3% on the 10 year over the course of the next two to three months which suggests that ultimately Recession is coming in that longer term than that rates aren't potentially going to go up by anywhere near as much Has been originally priced in so it's worth keeping an eye on that 10 year yield It's worth keeping an eye on this 14,576 area on the german DAX 61.8 Fibonacci retracement we get a breakthrough there Then we could well be heading back towards 15,000 potentially even higher at the moment It's unlikely we're going to see a massive in a massively aggressive sell-off as we head towards christmas Simply on the basis of the fact most people are done for the year They've either done their boots because equity markets have fallen Although we're very reluctant to take on new positions ahead of the creep ahead of the pre christmas break when ultimately Liquidity tends to dry up and generally there's A lack of interest in taking on new positions over the christmas and new year period so All all of the next few days are pointing to the central bank meetings the week after next And the guidance when it comes to what's coming after this month's rate hikes What is indisputable is the dollar has come crashing off has turned around We've seen peak dollar in my opinion and it looks to me as if we're probably going to be heading higher When it comes to Euro dollar cable and heading lower when it comes to doll again The bigger question is where do we rebound from when the dollar does find a little bit of a base? But certainly on the basis of what the dollar index has been showing me There is certainly rising evidence that we have seen a short-term peak In the dollar and we could well be heading lower over the course of the next few weeks We can see that in this particular chart here. We've broken We're low we're on the customer breaking below these lows here at 104 60 With euro dollar breaking higher doll again breaking lower There's certainly potential for further declines in doll again and there's certainly potential for a move back to 106 20 On euro dollar, which is these peaks here and also the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement level from The peaks earlier this year to the lows back in September October so certainly on a technical basis there is scope for further dollar weakness That's no better borne out in the way doll again has been trading We are below the 200 day moving average and we've broken below this particular area through here And that would suggest that we're probably going to see a return to the august lows of 131 60 Over the course of the next few weeks I see nothing at the moment in any of the Any of the economic data that suggests we won't see a continued weakness in the dollar Then the fact the Bank of Japan have suggested that they might be looking at revisiting their current monetary policy settings Which will should be fairly yen positive and push the dollar yen lower in terms of cable We've also seen a really nice Technical breakout there above the 200 day moving average We're currently pushing against resistance 50% Fibonacci retracement from the peaks back in 2021 to the lows all the way back In october 50% is 123 We break above 123. We're certainly going to head back towards one We should expect to see move back to 127 And what's particularly notable is we're now back above the 200 day moving average Which suggests that this this 123 will eventually give way and we'll head back to 127 50 and who could have foreseen that All the way back in september when everyone was calling for parity with the dollar Now it looks as if we're probably going to see 130 and that's certainly what i'm looking for over the course of the next few weeks and months in terms of What else is coming up next week? We've also got the rba and the bank of canada The rba surprised the markets by dialing back on the aggressiveness of its rate hiking cycle when it met last month When it raised high when it raised rates by 25 basis points rather than the expected 50 Not really a surprise to understand why they've done that concern about the housing market In australia So we could we should we are we are expecting to see another 25 basis points Governor philip lowe said that the rba wanted to slow the pace Of rate hikes and also better to judge the lag effects of previous hikes which could take time to trickle down So this goes back to what um fed officials were talking about policy lags I want to study the effect of existing rate hikes and certainly there is evidence that it is slowing the various economic recoveries that we have been seeing there's increasing evidence that growth is slowing fortunately from a position of still fairly full employment and plentiful vacancies so hopefully any Any landing or soft landing or hard landing slow down should be fairly tempered What's interesting with respect to the australian dollar is that We could well head back to the 200 a moving average here Which is capped every single australian ozzy rebound Pretty much since april last year. So that's going to be a key area around about 69 20 But I would expect the ozzy to head back to that level. We've also got the bank of canada They surprised the markets by hiking by less than expected in november They hiked by 50 basis points instead of 75 And really you can copy and paste what I said about the rba When we're talking about the bank of canada again The canadian housing market showing signs of strain as a consequence of higher mortgage rates So again here I would expect to see something in the region of either 25 basis points from the bank of canada or 50 At the moment, it's an each-way bet with the market erring towards a 25 basis point rate hike And the bank of canada meets on the 7th of december the rba meets on the 6th We've also got us ppi now that could be Extremely important in the context of the peak inflation narrative Both cpi and ppi have been rising at a progressively slower rate since the summer peaks The bigger question is whether this trend can be maintained Against the skewer central bank that wants to keep the prospect of a terminal rate Of say over five percent now the fed funds rate at the moment is four percent I'll add the upper bound The rate hike that we're going to get later this month will take it up to four and a half Which only puts us 50 50 base points away from five percent The fed could struggle to convince the market is serious about that if The ppi numbers which generally tend to act as a leading indicator cpi See a similarly aggressive slowdown now as a reminder headline ppi In october came in at 8 on the headline rate while core prices fell to 6.7 percent from 7.2 percent Looking at the expectations for the november numbers. We're expecting another big decline From on the headline rate to 7.1 percent from 8 and a fall from 6.7 percent on the core To 5.8 percent we get a big fall on that And really it's a question of will we even see any more rate hikes after december? Given the rate that we're seeing Ppi and cpi falling back. Let's also not forget That US cpi is also due out the same week as the fed meeting, but certainly a very weak A bigger bigger than expected fallback in us ppi Could we'll put the cat amongst the pigeons when it comes to rate hike expectations and certainly Perpetuate further dollar weakness. We've also got services PMI services Activity has been fairly positive Certainly jobs growth in the services sector is showing no signs of slowing Unlike the manufacturing sector where it's looking fairly Week we did see job losses in the adp payrolls reported around about 86 000 in the manufacturing sector We're also seeing the employment components of the ism Going to contraction territory as well So the manufacturing sector is showing pockets of weakness The bigger question is whether or not the services sector starts to go the same way We're certainly seeing that in some of the big tech companies announcing job losses amazon Meta platforms facebook and obviously twitter as well and even microsoft has suggested that they are going to freeze hiring so As I say big next couple of weeks Certainly should feed into the weaker dollar narrative. Certainly looking at Brent crude prices We are trading also at the lower end of The recent range which suggests that the markets are pricing in certainly the prospect of lower demand Going forward. So On the earnings front, it's a fairly light calendar. We've got British american tobacco. We've got game stop. We've got broadcom Not really too much to talk about game stop Should be interesting in the context of whether or not it's able to cut down The levels of his losses and also The company's exposure to the ftx collapse Those of you will remember that A few months ago They announced the new collaborate collaboration easy for me to say with that ftx To set up this move into the nft marketplace So the shares did take a bit of a dive in november and they've since bounced back As a result of the collapse of ftx, I don't think there's potentially any exposure Financially to ftx, but it certainly will mean that their plans for an nft marketplace Will have taken a bit of a blow, but losses are expected to come in around about 29 cents a share fairly decent support in and around 20 dollars But i'm not really expecting a particularly upbeat set of numbers for game stop as we look ahead to Next week's price action. So that's pretty much it for This week ladies and gentlemen as I say we've got the payrolls numbers later today Hopefully they should give us a little more information about the health of the us labor market But I think in terms of a market mover They're probably not going to add too much to the sum of overall knowledge when it comes to Fed rate hikes We're going to get 50 basis points in december and really the only question that the markets are asking now Is what comes after that? So that's it for this week. Thank you very much for listening Michael Houston talking to you from CMC markets


We will see now how a neural network can produce an output which is performed through the feed-forward or inference pass We will start by introducing the basic perceptron We will also further see how we can embed the threshold within the model and therefore Utilizing a activation function, which it will be a step function Therefore, we introduce the logistic unit, which output is differentiable with respect to the parameters and the input Finally, we see how to combine multiple logistic units to create a neural network And we will see what are the equations that will allow us to perform an inference step or feed-forward pass Let's begin with the perceptron that was invented in the 1950s by Frank Rosenblatt So there is a series of Input to this system. Let's call them x1 x2 x3 And so on until the last one xn and then The output of this guy we call it we call it z will be simply the summation of All these input multiplied by specific weights that I'm gonna call theta 1 theta 2 Theta 3 and so on up to the last one theta n So we have that z it's equal to Theta 1 times x1 plus theta 2 times x2 plus theta 3 times x3 plus so on Until last the last one. So it's theta n times xn We can notice we can write this in a smarter way. So if we define x being the vector x1 x2 x3 Up to xn and then theta the same way. So our vector theta is going to be the vector of Theta 1 theta 2 theta 3 Down to theta n then we can have that our z here can be written as The product between theta transposed and x So what is this? What is all this stuff? For example, I could use a perception in order to Decide whether you pass or not in the class. For example x1 could be the homeworks X2 could be like how much how many equations do you answer in class? x3 could be The extra material that you cover The last one could be like let's say the final project Of course, we have that these Parts will not contribute in the same way. So we may have like theta 1. It's equal to 30 Then theta 2 it's equal to 20 Theta 3 Could be equal to 10 and the last one the theta 4 in this case if we have an example with just for Inputs and for weights it could be the final project which is county like for 60% And then at the end we can say that we can have that our output. So the H Based on theta of x It's equal It's equal zero if the summation of these Values so meaning like if you do the homework completely then you get 30 points if you get the Questions all done you get 20 points. So they are already up to 50 Then if you do extra material then you can get up to 60 and then if you do perfect perfectly the last project You get up to 120 let's say we put a threshold So how much how difficult is the class? Equal to let's say hundred. So if your summation of all the scores Z it's below or equal Our threshold is called T and we have here that T Equal 100 Which is our bias Then you fail the exam is going to be zero instead. You pass the exam or the class if you achieve Anything above the threshold which was 100 here in this case we can use a Perceptor in order to evaluate whether You can pass or fail a specific course which has These specific weights. Let's see how to reformulate this problem By incorporating this bias T Within the system because we don't want to carry on this T and you will see we will see that this is gonna help us In a following formulation, we can incorporate the threshold T by simply adding one new node to the perception that we will call X zero X zero It's the same thing as a one. So basically X zero is gonna be always to one and we have that our Z which is defined as the product of theta transposed and X but in this case we have the vector X it's equal to X zero X one blah blah blah up to X and So in this case we have that it belongs to our n plus one and the same way theta It's going to be theta zero theta one up to theta n and Also, she belongs to R to n plus one So in this case we're gonna have The same as before but again in X zero we will have It X zero it's equal to one. So the formulation becomes basically theta zero Times one plus the rest no theta one X one plus and so on up to theta n times X n and When we write our final equation for the H We can simply say it's zero if Z It's lower or equal zero and it's one if Z It's greater than zero We simply have brought the threshold T from the right hand side to the left hand side So basically this new Z it's Equal to old Z Minus T and therefore we understand that minus T It's equal to theta zero To simplify further this notation we can introduce a activation function that we're gonna call G which is the step function. So If I have my If I make the plot here Here we have Z Here we have G of Z and Then the function is gonna be zero until zero included the zero and then it goes to one When it's greater than zero So we can simplify H and Becomes simply G of our Z which is G of theta transpose X and this is also called activation. So this is gonna be a So from the previous case, we will have that our parameter theta. It's equal Minus hundred our bias. So how difficult is the the task How is how difficult is it to pass the The exam for example and then there is the list of values we saw before so there is the 30 for the homework There is the 20 for the questions in class There is the 10 for the extra material and then the last part is the 60 for the final project and X it's One for X zero Always and then it's gonna be some values from probably zero to one Which says how good you have performed in those different tasks and both of them belong to R and plus one Let's say now we would like to have a system That can predict whether you will fail or pass a specific class But you are not a professor. So you don't know how much each part of the class or the homework or the exam actually Wait for a specific for the for the total so Let's say we have the same system with several inputs and we would like to find the combination of parameters theta that are actually Correctly predicting whether you can pass or fail a specific exam so In this case, we have that every parameter Is somehow tricky to figure out because if we have small variations in the parameter the output H of theta will not change unless it's a mention of all the parameters is Higher than the bias then we are gonna have a positive outcome, but if it's below it's gonna be Zero output, so we would like to have a softer way to determine the output score So we understand how we place for the specific Set of input we can do this with the logistic unit So in this case, it's very similar to what we have just seen with the perception But the only thing that is gonna change is the activation function instead of having G The step function G is gonna be the logistic sigmoid function Which is equal to? So we have that Sigma of Z. It's equal One plus X to Z At minus one so I can also rewrite this as one divided by one plus X of Minus Z So let's see how it works. How this Plot, what is the plot of this function? So let's draw a couple of axes if Z Tends to minus infinity We had that minus Z Tends to plus infinity Then we have that X of minus Z Tends to to plus infinity and therefore we have that one divided by one plus X of minus Z It's going to tend to zero plus The asymptote is On the zero side Then instead, let's see what happens if we have that Z Tends to plus infinity. We had it minus Z Tends to minus infinity Therefore we had the exponential of minus Z It's going to tend to zero plus And therefore one divided by one plus Exponential of minus Z So this was zero and therefore it's gonna be one divided by one. This tends to one And therefore here we have a state set one So and then let's see for Z equals zero we had that the exponential D of minus Z it's equal to One and Therefore we are gonna have that one divided by one plus one It's gonna be one half there you go so It's very similar to what we have seen before so if we have Values that are let's say above roughly five The output of the sigmoid is gonna be roughly one if we are below minus five Then we are gonna be basically roughly zero The nice part is that now if we apply some small variations on the weight we can Move Z slightly to the left of the axis and to the right so we actually move the output which is gonna be the sigmoid of the Skylar product which also is gonna change in value in this way We can try to make some small variations on the parameters and See how the output changes. Also in this case we have to remember that there is the bias here all of us the plus one Which is connected down here and with the weight theta zero, which is Basically our our bias just to recap We have that X Belongs to R to n plus one data belongs to R and plus one And then we have that Z it's equal Theta transpose X and then our Hypothesis based on theta of our input X It's gonna be in this case our sigmoid of Z and then basically we had that This belongs to the interval 01 we can decide whether we have passed the exam or we if you'd like a binary Binary output we can simply ask we can simply have this H of theta of X Greater than 0.5 If we are above 0.5, then it's gonna be Pass otherwise gonna be a fail, but in this case again, we see we can see that H of theta is gonna be Continuously varying between zero and one So we can see How small variations of each of the singular inputs or each of the singular parameter will affect our final Activation and therefore our final outcome Here we have a neural network. A neural network simply is a combination of multiple logistic units In this case, we have a three layers neural network. So we have an input layer then we have a Output layer here and then in the bed in the middle. We have a one singular hidden Layer the dimensionality of the input Which we call S1 for size of first layer It's gonna be four. So there are just four inputs the size of the Hidden layer S2 second layer It's also four in this case and the size of the output layer as capital L or S3 in this case It's just one. Of course, there would be always a X0 here set to 1 which is connected to All the other neurons Then we're gonna have also here a A0 Activation 0 of the layer 2 which is also a Plus 1 which is all which is the bias for the last node in this case We can perform more more complicated operations For example, each of the single singular activations a 1 a 2 a 3 a 4 of the second layer can compute a operations on the input and For example evaluate whether Specific combinations of the input are above a specific threshold or bias Then the final outcome will simply score based on the output of the previous units The final output. It's it's like before called H in this case. We have the matrix capital theta and it's also a function of the input capital theta it's a collection of Parameters for example in this case we have two layers. So we are gonna be having Theta of layer 1 which it goes from layer 1 to layer 2 and Theta 2 Which goes from layer 2 to layer 3 and in more detail we have that theta 1 first row It's simply the The it's simply the vector theta which is used To compute a 1 of 2 The second row of big theta for the first layer second row It's gonna be also another vector theta Which is used to compute the activation number two all the second layer and the only row of Theta 2 it's Is going to be the vector of the parameters to compute the only activation a 1 of layer 3 Which is also equal to the final output H of big theta of The input X so let's see now a summary of all the All the equations that we have seen so far with sparsely So let's see some definitions now just to recap what we have seen so far and then we see Overview of all the equations that we are gonna be needed in order to compute the forward pass of a neural network So we have that a I of J is the I activation in layer J as We saw here in the red circles circles. We have a 1 is the first activation of the Layer 2 a 2 is the second activation of layer 2 a 3 is the third activation of a second layer and a 4 is The fourth activation of The second layer on top. We don't have to forget the a 0 of second layer the bias term and Also, of course, and of course here x 0 as we can see X 1 it's also The same essay activation 1 of layer 1 X 2 is gonna be the same also activation 2 of layer 1 and So on no so a 3 activation 3 of layer 1 in activation 4 of layer 1 and the same way the final activation So the activation the only activation of layer 3 in this case. It's equal to the final H hypothesis with parameter theta capital theta on the input X capital and theta J is the collection of and mappings to go from layer J to J plus 1 So theta 1 for example capital theta 1 allow us to map the input that is the layer 1 to the activations of layer 2 and Let's see now the full Equations for the for the activations in this case of layer 2 So we have that a 1 activation 1 of the second layer it's equal a sigmoid of Which is gonna be theta For the first layer and then first row First column which starts from 0 because we have a bias term in the input and This is multiplied by X 0 Which we know it's equal to plus 1 then we have plus theta first row First element of X. This is not the one for the first layer X 1 Plus so on until the last one we have theta first layer first row and the fourth of X for and there you go and The same happens for the other activations. So activation second activation is going to be second row. So It's gonna be our sigmoid no linear function of The matrix that is mapping the input so the first layer We go second row and element 0 which is multiplying the bias all the ways Don't forget Then we're gonna have still Mapping the input one second row because the second activation element 1 of X 1 plus all the others and the last one is gonna be Mapping the input to the second activation of the fourth value of the input X And we have the same for a3 and then we have the last one here. So it's gonna be the last activation so the last row of the input The input parameter collection collection fourth row element bias plus Still from the input fourth row first element of the input plus all the others and the last one gonna be the from the input fourth row and Also fourth element of the input We can write this in a much more compact way. So let it be a to the vector a to so a one of second layer a to second layer Up to a for Second layer, which is s Second layer So we can write that a To it's simply in the non-linear function. So the sigmoid of what of These operations here, right? So here we have the first row of Theta one and then the second row and then we have third row so we can simply write the matrix theta for mapping the input and Multiply by the actual input. So what it does this one is simply performing a matrix vector multiplication So row first row by first by the column Which is gonna be first row as we said before here first row first element first row second element And so on until first row last element multiplied by all the elements of our input included the bias and Then all these huge here amount of operations can be simply down written down more compactly this way Then the final one we have the output, which is the hypothesis based on the whole set of parameters to respect with the input to the input, which is also called the Only activation a one of the third layer. It's going to be equal to our Sigma a non-linear function and Then we are gonna use the map for the second layer because we go from the second layer to the third and Then it's gonna be the only row, but we still the right number one here and Then first the first element is the element that is connected to the To the bias times a Zero from the second layer plus Our matrix for the second layer first row only row element one multiplied by the activation one from the second layer Plus all the others up to the last one capital theta for the second layer the only row and the fourth element of the activation and here as well if we define a hat equal the vector with plus one and A and this one relates to the second layer, then we can express our final output of theta the input X as equal our sigmoid of the Mapping for the second layer multiplied by the activation with the bias term from the second level and There we go. We have completed the Whole set of equations that we need to compute the forward pass for a neural network one more definition So we had it SJ is the number of elements layer So as we saw before as one equal four as two equal also four and S3 equal one in this case by using this notation. We can write that theta J It's a matrix Which belongs to our off so Let's have a zoom here. We said that Theta J is mapping the J layer to the J plus one layer So there will be as many rows of the matrix as the number of outputs So the number of elements per layer is called S. So we go from S J plus one and the number of columns is gonna be number of elements we have in the input Which is S J And we have not to forget about the bias. So plus One in this case. So if I draw here The matrix is going to be number of output so S J plus one and The number of number of columns is gonna be SJ number of elements of the current layer plus the one for the bias because this one is multiplied by the Bias plus our current input So this one is SJ and this is just one element and the output is going to be the vector of of SJ plus one element and that's it


And to know about the new service, IRS tax news. IRS quickly moves forward with taxpayer service improvements, 4,000 hired to provide more help to people during 2023 tax season on phones, 4,000 new people, yeah, I don't know IRS, I mean, that's a lot of new mouths to feed, you know, and I'm just not sure I could afford it given the current state of the economy, inflation and everything.  But as the bread earner in this relationship, I feel I must put my foot down on this one. What's that IRS? You now armed the 4,000 new mouths and implemented instructions to break my foot if it ever hits the floor. That, that's outrageous. This is mutiny, dang it. Honestly, the IRS moves forward quick, quickly, huh? I mean, I don't know about you, but I haven't been able to contact anybody by phone over there for like the last three years. But whatever, first to joke, bad news travels fast. Good news has a moderate speed. Good news, everyone. Uh-oh, I don't like the sound of that. You'll be making a delivery to the planet Trisall. Here it comes. A mysterious world in the darkest depths of the forbidden zone. Fake news starts out slow due to President Biden's sleeping schedule. Get yourself a good sharp steak and drive it right through his heart. Oh! You better get yourself a garlic t-shirt, buddy, or it's your funeral. But man, there sure is a lot of it. Great. The blood's sucking pretty much. It's like a zombie in one of those horror movies. I think I should warn you all, no two bloodsuckers go out the same way. Some yell and scream, some go quietly. You look at it and are like, wow, that thing is horrifying. Some explode, some implode, but all will try to take you with them.  And then, all of a sudden, there's like 10,000 of them slowly marching after you. And that's when you have to start cracking, lying zombie skulls. Metaphorically speaking, of course. Good night, bloodsucker. No! IR2022-191, October 27th, 2022, Washington. The Internal Revenue Service announced today significant progress to prepare for the 2023 tax filing season as the agency passed a milestone of hiring 4000 new customer service representatives to help answer phones and provide other services. These assistors have been hired over the last several months and are being trained to provide help to taxpayers, including answering phone questions. This is part of a much wider IRS improvement effort tied to the Inflation Reduction Act funding approved in August. I mean, honestly, the Inflation Reduction Act, I'm not complaining about hiring more people to answer the phones because clearly they have an issue with that over there at the IRS. But does that have anything to do with like reducing inflation? I mean, it's almost like they wanted to spend a whole bunch of money and then they didn't think they could do it or get approval for it.  I mean, it's okay. It's okay. I'm just going to go forward here. The IRS continues working hard on implementing the landmark 10-year legislation and updates on other improvement areas will be provided in the near future. Quote, the IRS is fully committed to providing the best service possible and we are moving quickly to use new funding to help taxpayers during the busy tax season. End quote said IRS Commissioner Chuck Reddick. Sounds good. I'll believe it. So put that money to work somewhere, you know, useful, possibly it'd be nice. Quote, our phone lines have been simply overwhelmed during the pandemic. That's true. I have no, that's a true statement. Okay. And we have been unable to provide the help that IRS employees want to give and that the nation's taxpayers deserve. Yeah, I agree with that. But help is on the way for taxpayers. Okay. I'll believe it when I see it. Because the newly hired employees are trained and move online in 2023, we will have more assistors on the phone than any time in recent history end quote. Recent history. Does that just being the pandemic like the last two years when basically half the IRS was closed, can't be too difficult to clear that hurdle given the fact that, you know, they closed down good large parts of the IRS due to the social distancing law. But whatever. Here we go. Customer service representatives being hired are in various stages of being onboarded. When they join the IRS, they will see weeks of training to help serve people and improve the taxpayer experience. The training will cover a wide range of issues, including technical account management issues and understanding and respecting taxpayer rights. The goal is to add another 1000 customer service representatives by the end of the year, bringing the total of new hires in this area to 5000. Many employees will be in place for the start of the 2023 tax filing season. So obviously they want to ramp up before their busy season tax season 2023 returns starting to be filed in by, you know, February and so on due in April 15th and whatnot. And others will join as their training is completed in the following weeks. Because all of their training will be completed by the president's day 2023. Traditionally, the period when the IRS sees the highest phone volumes, the IRS anticipates phones will be answered at a much higher level during the 2023 filing season. I should hope so. It shouldn't be that. I mean, it should be pretty, pretty easy to clear that hurdle given the fact that you could have been on hold for like three months last year. So in the last two years, really. So in any case, hopefully they do better on that. It used to be that they were just trying to fix their website. They would just be like, well, just go to the website. But a lot of people, you know, aren't as proficient on the website and need to talk to someone. But in any case, IRS improvements and use of the new direct hire authority have speeded the hiring process. This year, these positions have been brought on since August. So last year, it took approximately eight months to hire customer service representatives. Quote, even though we have new hires in the pipeline, our phone lines remain extremely busy in, quote, Reddick said, quote, we continue to urge people to first visit IRS.gov for information related to their tax questions. So I think that's what their original goal kind of was, that they're going to just try to get everybody onto the website and so on. And they haven't proved the website too, but that's not going to take care of everyone. I don't think at this point in time, we've got a lot of people that aren't proficient with that to the level to do that. So many of the questions we've received can be answered online, providing faster answers for people than calling. We appreciate taxpayers continued patience with us. Please know that we have dedicated employees across the IRS working hard every day to help people on the phone and in person. IRS employees look forward to providing better service and the near future. In addition to the phone of sisters, the IRS is also working to hire additional people through the agency, not just in the taxpayer service areas, but in information technology and compliance positions, all with a goal of improving the work of the IRS does. That's great. That's a pretty broad goal, though. You could get a little bit more specific. We're going to improve our work. It's like a mission statement that's not too specific there. But in any case, quote, IRS employees make a difference for our nation. And we're excited that we can add more people to serve taxpayers and support the critical work of tax administration. In quote, Reddit said, quote, positions will be open across the country in coming weeks and months. And we encourage potential candidates to visit usajobs.gov to look for opportunities. In quote, so you might be able to get a government job there. Hopefully good benefits typically with a government job on the phone services. So you could check that out once again, usajobs.gov. And you can look it up here. There'll be links to whatever we said there were links here. There'll be a link to this in the description.


Hi, so it's that time of day again. It's that's time of the conference again the clothing fashion You're Python 2021 is almost over We still have the sprints ago, and I will have a slide on that one as well. It was the 20th Europe Python conference I think it was an extreme good success. We had more than 2100 tickets registered a Huge number for an online event. I think we last year we had about half of that maybe a bit more And yeah, I'm gonna go through Some slides now to thank everyone who needs to be thanked and also to give them some applause even though it's virtual Let's see how it goes. So before I jump into the actual closing I just wanted to highlight the sprints that are scheduled for tomorrow for Saturday and Sunday The sprints will happen in matrix and there are sprint rooms already installed in matrix. You can go there and then You know discuss you can do text chat. You can do video chat in there using the just you did see widgets But there's something that's very important Of course, we need to have a number of sprints scheduled for this right and right now We do have a couple but as you will see on the following slide There are so many people who want to join the sprints that we can easily have more Sprint projects on the schedule. So I would ask you to please go to this URL You can find that URL if you go to our website on the sprints page Or you can just go directly to the Python wiki and then navigate to to the URL your Python 2021 slash sprints and then you can add your sprint there So we still have quite a few rooms left. I think we have a total of 15 rooms For the for the sprints. So please do Right that said now, let's go into The actual slides so your person 21 21 statistics. So your person was really really big this year So we had more than 2100 tickets sold or registered and we're still counting people are still registering for tickets we had a total of 1600 or more than 1600 attendees from more than 80 countries around the world and this is based on unique email addresses But it's a bit difficult for us to count the actual attendees at the conference because we only You know get numbers from let's say how many people registered in matrix or how many people are You know buying buying tickets sometimes people buy more than one ticket So that's that's basically the the count that we have for this year 1600 is a record for your person We've never had more attendees. So that's a really nice result We sold 300 or more than 360 combined tickets combined tickets are the ones that include training 370 conference tickets 470 sprint only tickets and now you have to Consider that the combined tickets and the conference tickets that can also participate in the sprints So there are more than a thousand people waiting for the sprint team. So that's going to be very exciting tomorrow To see how that goes Plus we also added this view only ticket for this year actually for the first time and That was hugely popular. So we had 970 view only tickets registered And that's probably something that we're going to do again because it's it's really it's it's a huge success It's you engage people a lot more than by just putting streams on YouTube View only tickets is free. So that was a nice thing For us to do we had 18 sponsors, which is eight sponsors up from last year Which is also amazing and I have a feeling that the sponsors felt quite at home at the conference There was more engagement and you know more people coming to them So overall, I think this was and we can we can probably say this was one of the largest Europe-Island events that we ever had a Big thanks goes out to our sponsors Especially the Keystone sponsor Optiver and also Microsoft and Bloomberg as diamond sponsors But I also like to thank Treyport JetBrains number Lee off zero Google Cloud Vonage Terminus DB stack builders Scout APM. That's a bit small River Riverbank computing They have been sponsoring us for four ages. I don't remember when they started sponsoring us They have been with us for I think since the beginning Edimion remaster Manning no such press and packed So big applause goes out to them. Let's just do this like this maybe And then also, of course, thank you to all our speakers and attendees So we had more than 130 sessions for this Europyson by more than 140 speakers So that was absolutely amazing and I think all the speakers did an excellent job And so they deserve an applause as well. So let's give them another applause and Then I'd like to thank the attendees as well The attendees not only for attending but also for being nice citizens because we have zero contact reports, which is really nice And of course, we'd like to keep it that way. So we're going to ask you to follow the code of 100 next year as well So who's going to make who's making all of this happen? the small team small team of volunteers and this is the team and I want to I've prepared a small video so that we We do get some applause. So let me just play that Okay, this is the list of all the people that we had in the in the team The people in red here are the board members of the Europe as a society and all the blue members are the work group members and volunteers and session chairs and Basically everyone who helped at the conference So a big thanks to everyone a big thanks to all the volunteers who've helped who'd made this this work It was all done on free time. It was all volunteer work. No one got paid for this This is It's very important for us to to you know, have everyone basically in the same kind of situation And to make it, you know viable for for everyone to join the the organization and to help out So for next year, of course, we are asking again for volunteers to help in the work groups If you want to know how much work it is, it's probably going to be around hundred hours of work mostly starting in March There's more work available, of course, if you like you can work as much as As you have free time for this if you want to Sign up as a volunteer for next year, then please write to board at your python.eu We will probably again have introduction sessions or short conference calls early next year Maybe in February to then explain how everything works And then we usually then also on board you To the to the teams The legal backup behind Europe as in Europe as in society as some of you may know Europe as a society runs Europe as in the conference and does all the contracts takes the financial risk and so on But it also supports the European Python community, so and that may be a little known fact We do give out grants to other groups organizing conferences in Europe and also to to projects if you run a project and you need financial support then please contact us and we can We can help you if it fits our our mission So it has to be in Europe. It has to be related to to Python, of course Everything is volunteer driven in your Python society as well. No one gets paid. So this is Completely done on free time This is the Europe Python Society board So we have Anders, Chuck Francesco, myself, Martin, Nicholas, Raichel and Sylvia I'm solicited there as a chair This will be my last year as a chair of the conference. So starting next year I'm going to participate as an attendee and perhaps a speaker again. So I'm actually very much looking forward to that after doing this five years So we're gonna have a new person do the chairing next year There's a general assembly later this year This is where the members of the Europe Python Society meet and then they vote on Among other things the new board So if you want to be part of the EPS become a member then please go to the members Link that we have on the website and you can sign up. It doesn't cost you anything And then you can have your say as well Right. So we loved having you Have a good trip home. That's what we normally say at the in-person conference I think it's better to stay to say stay safe and stay healthy and don't get caught it and I very much hope that we can meet in person again in Dublin next year the conference next year is going to be July 11th until 17th and Yeah, I will you know, I would really like to see everyone again in person and so that we can actually You know shake hands so we can go out for a beer. We can have dinner together. We can enjoy the conference talks directly and That would be a great thing. So hopefully it'll happen like that We'd like to ask you to to spread the word about your Python about the conference what you thought was good about the conference and Bring all your friends to the conference next year. I am going to send around a feedback form tomorrow So that you can give us your feedback and of course, then we will take your feedback into account for organizing next year's conference right and This was all now. It's party time. So I think we're going to stay in this room. Unless Unless Nicholas gives me different instructions and we're going to start in two minutes. It seems So, that's it. Thank you very much


Early data was this this is a tester for the TS USB 30 breakout I made so this is at 1 to 2 mux So basically you have USB host here or here you know breakout or USB C And then you can select with the S pin whether you're connected to port 2 or port 1 So you could basically have one hardware connector and then two electrical connections So you can swap between two devices on you know one USB connection or scan me it's on a hub It's a switch so you do one or the other and Here's a little tester. So what I did is I have this is like a FTDI cable And then I also have like a metro with a different FTDI chip and then this is the USB port connection That goes to here and this is an RP 2040, which we have native USB host support So when you plug it in it does an enumeration check and it you know verifies you can even see it's resetting the board But this works so you can switch between the two and it's gonna be in store real soon


So yeah, isn't that neat did you get to did you read some of them? Merry Christmas Handless Irish Steve don't have a very good reputation You can pop it outside if you need to May want to get a To the new year to baby Jesus My is the is the thing off. Yeah, I just don't want it to go Here you should use your My brothers and sisters Mid-signs and wonders Christ Jesus was born in Bethlehem Actually put her back in the box This doesn't happen too often and be MVP guest stay until what 7 p.m. What time is it 6 p.m? Steve gets to close out the vlog close Yeah Yeah