What's happening guys? It's Silent Mike. Today with another video I want to talk about programming, in particular the Kaizen Infinite Off-season programming, which we've had insane amount of feedback for. And if you're interested, it is available for free right now in the description. It's always there. It's always free for you guys. And here we're going to cover some of the most frequently asked questions and then some of my tips and tricks so you can customize it to make the most gains in strength and hypertrophy over time. Obviously, you know, there's a lot of talk about cookie cutter programs and why they're good or why they're bad. And in my opinion, the customization of a powerlifting or strength-based program is actually pretty minimal. It's more depends on kind of beginner, intermediate, advanced. But in that intermediate to advanced, I do think that there is some tweaks you can make to excel your progress based on yourself. But we're all made of similar tissues. We all move very similar.  So some people sure can handle a little bit more volume might be able to lift a little bit heavier at a higher percentage of their wonder at max. But generally speaking, many principles will work for most. And that's why I think this program is one of the best out there. I've obviously have a hand in creating it. So I am biased, but it's something that I've run and I always kind of go to in my off season or in my building stages, even kind of doing my own customization of it right now as I'm building back my strength from kind of having a back tweak. It's something I used after my first back tweak almost a year and a half ago. I used it for about two months leading up to my 705 pound deadlift. And it's also something that I use for eight weeks prior to my bench peak when I benched 405. So it's kind of an off season program. Again, it's something you can customize yourself. The frequency is set up that it's very down the middle. It's moderate frequency, moderate volume, although it could be a higher volume program depending on your customization of it. So let's dig into some of the questions and some of the ways that I think best you can represent it to customize for yourself. So I guess the most common question is that it does cycle. It does cycle volume. First week is three sets of five, second week is four sets of five, then five sets of five. People ask about that all the time. It is not a typo that is how it goes, because based on the AMRAP will represent what percentage or load you progress in the next week. If you end up doing five or six reps in the AMRAP and you're going to repeat the same load, we want to still progress. So if you do three sets of five at 225, and then we're going to four sets of five at 225, that's still progressive overload. That's the goal here. We want to do something more than we did last week, last month, last year. And it's not always going to be as simple as adding five or 15 pounds because that's how you're going to get burnt out. That's how you're going to get injured. And obviously you're just going to plateau once you're in that intermediate or advanced stage. But something we can do is add reps or add sets. And that's why we make it a cyclical training program. So you can do that added with the extra frequency. Again, going into the customization, which we'll tap into next is how you'll be able to use this program over and over technically for a very, very, very long time and still make progress. So I guess the main customization that we put into the program that's obviously visible is the secondary movement in all of the main days. So after your main deadlift day, we're hitting three sets of five. We do have squats afterwards. Now, those squats and other things are often most easily represented by RPE. So then you can use a variation. You can simply, after you do your deadlift work, do three sets of 10 squats every single week by percentage. But we can also do cyclical ourselves, where within that four week cycle, you could start with three sets of 12, then three sets of 10, and then three sets of eight. Rinse and repeat, trying to add a small load the following cycle, if that makes sense to you. So if you could do three sets of 12 at 315, squats as a secondary, and then three sets of 10 at 325, and then three sets of eight at 335, the following cycle, maybe you do your three sets of 12 at 320, and then 330, and then the 340.  And that's a great way to kind of daily undulate or weekly undulate. So you're hitting multiple muscle fibers by hitting those sets of eight or 12 plus the fives on your main squat day, as well as building up muscle and keeping that energy system and keeping you in good work capacity or good shape for a long run. This can obviously happen on the secondary of the squat in the bench as well. On the squat day, if you have a really good deadlift form and you can handle a lot of volume, you can hit a deadlift variation. If you don't, I often suggest just doing a stiff leg. Deadlifting twice a week can work and has worked for many people, but often what I find for most works is if you have one dedicated deadlift day and then on the other day, some kind of a stiff leg or even a bent over row or a good morning, some kind of accessory or a variation of the deadlift itself will allow you to progress going overall. Squats and bench tend to, for the majority of people, be able to handle a little bit more frequency and volume with the deadlift. Often a little bit lower frequency, a little bit less volume, you can still make progress because you're working your back, legs, etc. with the squat and other movements. Again, on the secondary there, although it may say three sets of 15 and you're like, Mike, why would I ever do three sets of 15 on deadlift when my goal is my 100 max? This may be true, but again, we're giving you a general template. It is free and it's allowed for you to customize. So instead of 15s, those could be eights. Those could be 10s. They could be first cycle, it could all be 10s. Three sets of 10, four sets of 10, five sets of 10. And then the next one, it could be three sets of eight, four sets of eight, five sets of eight. You can also switch variation cycle to cycle. I often recommend if you choose a variation for the secondary to run it through an entire cycle, if not two, anywhere from eight to 12 weeks, it works awesome. And then you could switch the secondary movement. Again, basing it off, some general RPE works best because a percent of a lift will change based on the variation. 60% for three sets of 10 on a pause squat may be possible, but three sets of 10 at 60% on a tempo squat may not be possible, depending on the athlete and depending on the load, obviously. So using the RPE, just generally get around an eight, eight and a half on those things, saving about two reps in the tank. Even less, the point is just to get a good amount of work in. If we throw and the point is just to get a general good amount of work in and slowly progress over time. If you're adding five pounds each cycle to your secondary movement, you are progressing, whether it's a perfect RPE eight or a perfect 65% is almost beyond the point. It almost doesn't matter. We just want that slow progress over time so you can build up that work capacity, build up that technique and build your muscle in the off season. So when it comes time to peak, you'll have a better chance of hitting a higher one rep max than expected. Again, the accessories on these things are just general recommendations. There's some of the most basic and there's some of my favorite to do as well as the volume that I think that most people can handle over a long period of time and builds and kind of most bang for your buck. Again, if you really don't like a hammer curl and you want to do a barbell curl, go ahead and swap that out. But again, I do like that rule of maybe eight to 12 weeks on the same exercise, the same accessory and then eventually progressing over it over those eight to 12 weeks and then maybe switching and moving on to another one. If you have your bread and butter movements, obviously the squat bench dead or some variation of it, you can always come back and then the accessories, whether you're doing a cable curl or a dumbbell curl, I don't think for a powerlifter strength athlete or even high perch feet overall is going to make the biggest difference in the next six months, years to come and train. Now, the final way to make a variation or to do so, the final way to customize this program is to make those main movements also variations. Now, I've done tons of videos, so has Omar and Barton, a lot of other strength athletes on their favorite variations of all the movements, whether it's a closed script bench or a positive deadlift or a block pull or a pause squat or tempo squat. Those are just some of my favorites to name a few and you can replace the main movement with those exercises. The only thing you're going to have to change then is your one rep max.  Now, what we'll have to just either estimate, which isn't that hard and I think worth giving a go is just estimate what you think near your one rep max pause deadlift is or pause squat, tempo squat, etc. And then you can also go through that same cycle of volume using the same amount of amraps. Again, with the amraps, I always recommend leaving some of the tank. It's not an all out thing because we want to stay safe. We want to avoid technical failure, let alone actual muscular failure for safety, longevity and recovery. Last but not least, the most, the other most frequent question I get is this is not a peaking program. So although you can get stronger and it will get you stronger, build more muscle, it is an off season program. So to represent your one rep max, it does not peak you for that. So if you do this and you end up very fatigued, which you can if you're doing all this volume and then test your one rep max and it's the same, if not lower, that's because you didn't peak properly. We do have a peaking program as well available on kaisentraining.com, but this one is free the off season. So you can just build it, customize it, build it over time. It is not made to peak for a one rep max test or competition is made for your off season. Guys, that's it for this video. Please give it a thumbs up. Again, as always, all my programs, this one included for free, is available in the description below. I appreciate you. Head down, chin up, salamakam out here.


The signal oil program the whistler is your signal for the signal oil program The whistler. I am the whistler and I know many things for I walk by night I know many strange tales hidden in the hearts of men and women who have stepped into the shadows Yes, I know the nameless terrors of which they dare not speak Yes friends, it's time for the whistler rated by independent research the most popular West Coast radio program And remember, let every traffic signal remind you with new signal gasoline you do go farther than ever Look for the familiar big yellow and black circle sign that identifies those popular signal service stations throughout the west from Canada to Mexico And now the whistler strange story, stranger in the house Helen decided she might as well be honest with herself the suspense was getting her down It had been six years since her brother Ted had left for the Orient on that government mission just before Pearl Harbor And he was still out there somewhere between Manila and Shanghai, alive or dead Yes, it had come to the point now where Helen was wishing for any kind of a message Even one telling her Ted was dead, at least it would end the waiting At least it would be better than not knowing at all George please, I don't want to talk about it anymore He's been on my mind for so long now I wish I could forget about him for a while I'm rather surprised to hear you say that Helen I know it sounds terrible but George it's been six years now Six years of waiting not knowing I know I can't stand it much longer George He's my only brother, don't you understand? Six years of silence If they'd only tell us something But you must realize there are thousands of women like you dear Just one of those terrible things about a war that's all Well let's just wait then Let's not talk about him anymore But I'm your lawyer Helen, there's some things we've got to talk about All right Go on George Now, it's been six years If we haven't heard from him by next year at this time He'll be declared legally dead What does that mean? Well there's a reversion clause in your father's will Helen It means if Ted dies before you do His share of the estate reverts to you Why must you always throw that will in my face George Why must it always come around to money Every time we talk about Ted it's the same thing I don't care about the money All I care about is having him back, alive and well Now please go George If it doesn't have to be settled till next year Let's not talk about it till then All right Helen George Yes Helen I'm sorry I blew up I guess I'm just not myself Sure Helen, I understand Yes Helen, the suspense is beginning to tell on you isn't it Six years of it Just a few letters from Ted's your brother early in 1941 Telling you of his arrival in Manila Then silence No way you could get in touch with him Nothing you could do but wait And you're still waiting Still rushing out to meet the postman Hoping each day will be the big one George is more tactful now about the will He doesn't mention it anymore And you're very grateful And then at long last the suspense has ended It's not the postman It's Rhoda your maid Coming into your bedroom one morning with a cablegram When did it come Rhoda? Just this minute miss A messenger brought her to the door Arriving September 1st Seattle Steamer President Jefferson Love Ted Oh Miss Helen Your brother Yes Rhoda At last I beg your pardon Pardon me Yes miss I'm looking for Mr Ted Van Norton Where is his cabin please Just a minute please Van Norton state room 3C third deck Thank you I must have the wrong state room I'm looking for my brother Ted Van Norton What's the matter Helen don't you recognize me Well this isn't much of a homecoming after six years Maybe I better introduce myself The name is Theodore Van Norton remember Oh there must be some mistake Why Helen Helen darling you're joking aren't you Who are you Well I've already told you I'm your brother Ted You're not my brother You're an imposter Think of stranger in the house The signal oil company brings you another curious tale By the Whistler This Labor Day weekend was part of your driving fun Spoiled by the way other cars left you behind On the getaway or climbed ahead of you on hills Well don't give up cheer up There's probably lots of pep and performance left in your motor That you're not getting out of it That's why tonight for the benefit of you drivers Who may not yet have tried signals great new gasoline I want to pass along the good news about this new Super fuel that's engineered especially To put the fun back into driving You see science actually rearranged the atoms In gasoline molecules to put amazing power Into new signal gasoline Power that gives you quicker starting faster pickup And quieter higher anti-knock But even that's only half the story For a new signal there's an extra bonus Of extra mileage After all it stands to reason That some power that helps your motor Perform so much more efficiently Also helps you go farther than ever With new signal gasoline That's why signal says Look to your speedometer For the best proof of gasoline quality It takes extra quality to go farther And signal is the famous go farther gasoline And now back to the Whistler Well Helen all you can do is stand there In the state room and stare at him The effrontery of this stranger Trying to pass himself off as your brother Leaves you with a loss for something to say He doesn't remotely resemble Ted He's tall with a clean cut athletic look to him Ted was short and stocky Perhaps he thinks it's funny Helen Perhaps he's one of those people With a perverted sense of humor A practical joker Yes it's hilarious isn't it To pull a trick like this after six years Of almost unbearable suspense Well darling have we better get a move on Are you stupid enough to think you can get away with this Get away with what If this is some crude attempt at humor Not at all I'm quite serious Where's my brother Now look you have to be that way I explain Don't lie to me where is he Excuse me moment Oh Steward Yes Mr. Van Orden Would you take care of my hand baggage please Yes sir right away Thanks Come on Helen let's get down to the dock I'll call the poster Wait a minute Now look Here's the passport with fingerprints and photograph Birth certificate state department credentials Letters from you Dear forgeries I'm sorry they're genuine You're not going home with me I won't stand for it Very well darling I'll check in at a hotel for the time being But after all you can't keep a guy out of his own home Now can you George I've never been so stunned in my life I just stood there smiling at me Saying over and over that he was Ted You say he had identification Oh everything everything even letters from me I wrote them when Ted first arrived in Manila Genuine I think so Well they must be He'd know better than to try to get by with forgeries Helen you're sure you're right George you don't think I know my own brother Well it's been six years He's probably been in a prison camp You make a lot of difference in a man's appearance But Ted's dead Or he would have written The terrible's happened I'm sure of it This man might have killed him Yes that's it So he could get his hand on Ted's half of the estate Oh that's a pretty serious charge Helen You have to be sure of yourself Remember you're the only one in Seattle Who can recognize him now He left here over 15 years ago Do you have any pictures No I thought of that no No there aren't any Not since he was a little boy He spent most of his time in the east with Aunt Ida Where's she She died some time ago Well there are a lot of ways we can check on him State Department ought to know about him He's been with him for over 10 years You say he's stopping at a hotel Yes You know of course Helen that If he can prove his identity He has a legal right to live here in this house I tell you he's a plagiarism pastor He's not coming here If I have to hire someone to throw him out Time is it After eight Oh go away I'm sleepy I must see you miss All right Rhoda Come in What is it It's Mr. Van Norton What Where is he He's in the bathroom miss Shaving You're all the unmitigated Just wait I know well good morning good morning What do you think you're doing Shaving Morning ablutions I can't say I'm used to having ladies Bodge into the bathroom when I Get out of here Temper temper How did you get in Well I couldn't get a room at a hotel So I took a taxi up last night Orked in a back door Was open you see Well you can leave the same way you came in No no I'm here to stay sister dear I've got the proof in my pocket And if you want to get me out You can trot right down to the hall of justice And get yourself a cord order More coffee Helen No thanks Hotcakes huh Mr. Whoever you are The name is Van Norton Theodore Van Norton I must say I've never seen Such colossal nerve in my life You flatter me You're not at all concerned about the servants Why should I be Aren't you afraid they'll recognize you Don't be silly None of them were here when I left home Fifteen years ago Edward the butler was the last to go I think when was it Thirty-eight that was Edward Oh by the way Helen Whatever they came of old Edward There are other people in town you know What about your teachers At Washington Heights school Why Helen You know I believe you're trying to trick me You know father sent me to Fox Hall Academy when I was fourteen I never went to Washington Heights Where are you going You seem to know everything Why don't you tell me that Helen We have some talking to do darling About the will Father's estate you know Seems to me the executor owes me Close to a million dollars You knew it was coming didn't you Helen That's the purpose behind the whole Crazy business It's still inconceivable to you That the man can actually expect To get away with it George was right There are a thousand ways You can check up on him And the imposter himself Just gave you an excellent one You make a long distance call To the Fox Hall Academy And talk to Mr. Rigby the headmaster It's about two o'clock Hi Yes indeed Mr. Rigby Why the reunion This is George Chadwick my lawyer How do you do Hi Would you like to wait in the living room Mr. Rigby I think Ted is out on the tennis court We'll call him Thank you Come on George Excuse us Mr. Rigby Of course Do you still think I don't know my own brother I never said that Helen I only said six years Can make a lot of a difference Oh I'm afraid Mr. Whatsey's name Is going to suffer a little embarrassment You think Rigby will recognize him Of course He'll recognize him as an imposter He knows Ted as well as I do What's the matter I don't know I checked those documents of his this morning Will you stop talking nonsense George I tell you they're stolen Heaven knows what happened to Ted Or how this crook got a hold of his paper All right Helen all right You better go and call him Hello sis What's up I was sorry to interrupt your tennis game Ted Oh it's Ted now huh Of course It could have been mistaken you know Well I can't say I expected this I'd be a little foolish not to admit it When I'm wrong wouldn't I Come on dear Yeah where to Just to the living room You can go back to your tennis in a moment Oh there you are George Hello Ted Oh hello George What's going on around here We're going into the living room George Perhaps you'd like to join us Oh of course Well open the door George Huh oh sorry Say what is all this I don't Rigby Ted Teddy oh boy how have you been What a old son of a gun What is this Helen a surprise Why don't you tip a guy off when his old headmaster comes to see him You're looking fine Teddy Good lord it's been 15 years Last time I saw you was Out to the Washburn game remember Yeah yeah that was it that's Bo Kahn I think he was there too Say do you remember when the bus broke down that night outside of Wenatchee And you and I had it You stand there stunned Speechless just staring at them As they slap each other on the back Forgetting all about you And George avoids looking at you He's on their side now you're sure of it And worst of all it's beginning to get you too He's not your brother you know it You're positive It's ridiculous to go through all this rigmarole But it seems to be your word against his proof doesn't it But there are still other ways aren't there Like another long distance call This time to the State Department in Washington DC After being transferred to four or five different offices You finally get through to the right man You check this matter thoroughly I'm positive that the man representing himself as my brother is an imposter Yes I saw him attach his photograph and fix his fingerprints I simply want to see that application I'll forward the file to us yeah Quite satisfactory thank you You say the file was forwarded here from Washington That's right I simply want to examine it particularly the photograph Excuse me a moment Miss Van Norton I'll have to look it up Well George Well what? I can't say I'm pleased with your lack of confidence in me Who said anything about that?  I don't know Helen Seems to me you're arguing against yourself When you say Rigby might have forgotten what he looks like What do you mean?  Here comes the clerk Here we are Theodore H. Van Norton Now what did you wish to see? Oh let me see it Medical examination, education record, application Where's the picture? On the other side Oh here Satisfied Helen? It can't be I saw Ted paste his picture on myself Something wrong? Of course there's something wrong This isn't my brother It's that man Helen Get a hold of yourself What? Let me see it Yes here they are Fingerprints Listen, listen clerk I want this whole record sent to the office Of the Federal Bureau of Investigation Helen You need a rest Things getting in That's one thing they can't be forged Don't you see They can't forge a fingerprints I'm sorry Miss Van Norton But I have no authority You've got to I tell you there's a stranger in my house Posing as my brother There's a million dollars involved Just a minute Helen Now it's most important Mr. Robbins Not only because of the money involved You see Miss Van Norton Is extremely upset Of course Mr. Chadwick But you see I can't simply Turn over material like this I'll make the necessary arrangements With the FBI Mr. Robbins And get authority from Washington Will that be satisfactory?  Yeah How's Dick Tracy?   Why not? What'll it be?  To us of course Alright To us You're in charge of the finger printing department here Yes I'm Helen Van Norton I brought in a highball glass yesterday afternoon With some fingerprints on it Oh yes that's the one you wanted us to check Against the prints in the Steak Department application file Where did you get that glass? A man is posing as my brother Staying at my house They're his fingerprints You're sure of the prints on the application? What do you mean? Are you sure they're the bona fide prints Of your brother? Of course I was with him in Washington When he completed the application I saw him put the prints on it I see Well they ought to settle it for you once and for all What do you mean? The man at your house Is your brother Miss Van Norton The prints are identical I...  I see Of course Thank you Well Helen that settles it doesn't it You're beaten and you know it But you still have one more out Just one It's a desperate chance But you've decided you have to take it To determine once and for all Whether or not this man is your brother Whether you can trust your own mind It's very late that night When you get quietly out of bed And walk downstairs to the telephone The house is as quiet as a tomb Everyone's asleep I want to call Honolulu Operator Mr. Amato Subishi 28 Kaluwa Drive Honolulu Will you wait? Yes I'll wait Here is your party Go ahead please Hello Hello Is this Mr. Subishi? Who is calling Grace? I last talked to you in April 1941 The name I gave you was Grayson Do you remember that? Do you remember me? No I sent you $50,000 to... You did take care of him He's dead You're positive Thank you Mr. Subishi Thank you very much The Whistler will return in just a moment With a strange ending to tonight's story Hear that? If you're a driver That's a signal you should know The trainman's warning signal That engineers start to blow A quarter mile before a crossing And another signal it'll pay you to recognize Is the big circle sign With yellow letters on a black background Spelling out the word signal gasoline The sign that identifies Friendly dealer-owned signal service stations From Canada to Mexico Wherever you see that sign There you'll find Not only top quality signal products But also more thorough More conscientious service Because your signal dealer Being in business for himself Naturally has more incentive to do Those little extra things That will keep your car and you happy Well, add it up That's just about today's best recipe For longer car life No wonder signal oil company has grown so From a mere handful of stations in Southern California To an organization now serving Seven western states from Canada to Mexico And no wonder more and more wise drivers Are letting signals yellow and black circle sign Be their signal for the sure protection Cars need today to help them run better And last longer And now back to the Whistler It was a relief to know, wasn't it, Helen? You can trust your own senses now Ted is dead and the stranger in the house Is an imposter Somehow, some way you can prove it And the $50,000 you paid Mr. Subishi Back in the spring of 1941 Is still a good investment Because Ted's million dollars Half of the estate will be yours All of it You don't want to think about it anymore It's been too bewildering All you want now is your bed And the first good night's sleep in a week You put down the phone and start toward the stairs Sit down, Helen How long have you been here?  You didn't have Honolulu just in case you're wondering You were talking to the boys down at the office We had everything, you see Except the link you just gave us We knew Subishi paid $40,000 To one of his boys in Manila The guy who killed your brother But we didn't know who hired Subishi But may just suspect me I didn't at first I knew Ted had a sister I knew there were a couple of million bucks in it somewhere And I had three and a half years In a prison camp to take it over Guy can do a lot of deductive thinking In three and a half years So you looked up Subishi?  You could have been a nice kid If you weren't a killer at heart Yeah, it took us a long time to work it out A lot of planning, a lot of names A lot of people to run down But when we got going We knew you'd crack sooner or later Who are you? Your brother's best friend And... And you did it Because you were his friend? Partly Partly? Yeah My name is McKay FBI And incidentally this time I'm telling you the truth Next Monday at 9 o'clock The Whistler will bring you another strange tale The Whistler is broadcast for your entertainment By the marketers of signal, gasoline and motor oil And fine quality automotive accessories And by your neighborhood's signal dealer Featured in tonight's program were Virginia Gregg and Gerald Moore This program produced by George W. Allen With tonight's story by Harold Swanton and Mark Smith Music by Wilbur Hatch Is transmitted to our troops overseas By the Armed Forces Radio Service Is your signal for the signal oil program The Whistler This is Marvin Miller speaking Reminding you to look for those familiar Signs that identify those popular signal oil stations Throughout the west from Canada to Mexico This is CBS, the Columbia Broadcasting System


So people, I am back with another Outriders video on just a quick one regarding epics within the demo and how they are obtained. How's it going guys? My name's DPJ and if you enjoyed the video leaving a like really helps out and if you like what you see and want to see more Outriders be sure to subscribe. So I've played a ton of the Outriders demo and to be quite honest I've loved every second of it, including the daily streams I've been dropping which you can catch more or less every night. But within these streams I literally get a hundred to two hundred people asking every single session about epics and why they don't drop and how they are obtained within the demo or if they're even available within the demo. So get although most people probably already know about this some don't, hence the video. So for those who are unaware epics are actually available in this demo but there are only two places within the demo you can get them and I want life, for me they are just as rare as those legendaries. So epics within the demo only drop from the two vendors found at the camp. The two vendors are Gregor Ram who sells armor and Eva Lopez who sells the weapons. Now I personally have only seen epics under their unsale section and this section resets every hour. Now you can abuse this as far as I'm aware by changing the time on your system but that isn't anything I'm fussed about doing. Here we can see thanks to Hatch Deck whose YouTube channel you can find linked down below. We have two epic variants from both vendors. We have a weapon and an armor piece. Now these items as far as I am aware especially the armor pieces have higher stat values than the rest we see within the demo, as well as the armor pieces also having two mud sluts on them which is cool. Only legendaries within this game have the same. We also see this epic shotgun which is said to be an amazing weapon too, this one was found by Moxie a fellow content creator whose channel can be found linked down below also. This epic weapon without knowing or reading the small print you'd probably think is some kind of SMG but it's actually an automatic shotgun and these are incredible within this game. Epic weapons like the armor and legendaries can have two mods on them and yes when the full game releases you will be able to apply mods to these which you've found via dismantling other items and make these epics super powerful as well as leveling them up to make them even stronger and make them unique to your build and your style of play too. But yeah guys I just wanted to make a short but sweet video on epics and how they are obtained within the demo for those that do not know and I hope this video helped you out. If you didn't leave a like really helps me out. If you're new and you want to see more outriders be sure to subscribe and hopefully people I will catch you on my next video or my next stream.


Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Let's, we might as well get started. Welcome to this non-farm payrolls and ECB press conference webinar. And it promises to be a fairly interesting session. No surprises earlier. Mr. Draghi and his compatriots left interest rates unchanged. I don't think that was really too much of a surprise given the recent policy actions of June and the reduction of rates into negative territory. I certainly think that any further action so soon after the June action would have been very surprising given that the economic data that we're seeing out of Europe continues to be patchy but also continues to be more positive than negative. Now, I know there's an awful lot of speculation that the ECB may embark on QE and certainly I think this afternoon's press conference which starts at 1.30 just after the non-farm payrolls numbers the market will be looking for clues from Mr. Draghi on any potential new measures, any more details on asset-backed securities and measures to create a market in that. Also, probably more details on the new LTRO, the 400 billion euros worth, which is due to start in September, which might as well be a lifetime away given the problems that we're seeing currently unfolding in Europe. This week we saw the French Prime Minister Manuel Balls call for the ECB to act further. I think the chances of that happening are pretty much between slim and none at this point in time. I certainly don't think that there's any likelihood that the ECB will act between now and September simply because of what Mr. Draghi said at his press conference last month, namely that interest rates are already near or at the lower bound. So that essentially means that any new measures that the ECB would embark upon are likely to be of the extraordinary measures variety as opposed to any movement in rates thereof. So given the fact that they've announced this TLTRO, I think it's unlikely that we will see anything more than what we call jaw-boning of the euro-lower. Certainly the French economy continues to remain very sclerotic. It seems to be continuing to struggle to grow in any meaningful way. And yet we have, I would suggest, I'm not going to say better than expected economic data out of Spain and Italy, but certainly it's starting to improve. It's the right side of 50 on the PMI measures, and therefore Mr. Draghi can actually argue that some of the measures that he has taken over the past six to nine months are starting to take effect. So I think he's always been very, very insistent that structural reform needs to take place, and that's certainly something that France has been very, very reluctant to do. So what are we expecting from non-farm payrolls? Because I think that more than anything is more likely to move the market than anything Mr. Draghi says, because I think essentially Mr. Draghi won't need to talk the euro-lower if the non-farm payrolls number is a very good one, because it essentially will be dollar positive. So I think Mr. Draghi will obviously look and wait and see and see what the number comes out at, assuming that he doesn't already know it. I have a feeling he probably already does. But certainly I think equity markets this week have been pricing in a very, very good number. You've only got to look at the gains that we've seen so far this week on the back of what I would suggest is fairly lukewarm US economic data, unless of course you include the ADP, which even I have to admit was very, very good. Certainly if you look at the data over the last few months with respect to ADP and consumer confidence and retail sales, it does paint a rather mixed picture. Now this graph that I've got in front of you now is a point for point comparison of jobs data totals between ADP, which is down here on the left hand side. So you can see there's yesterday's 281, then there's May's 179, 205. So you can see up until yesterday jobs growth in the US, certainly with regards to the ADP, has been fairly constant and has been fairly consistent. Apart from obviously January, where we saw a significant slow down in jobs growth, of one to one. And the same applies I think really to non-farm payrolls. We saw a very, very good number in the first month of Q2, 282. And then we saw 217 in May. And now the prospect is that potentially I think we could probably see something in the region of 235 today, given the fact that we saw a fairly positive 281 on the ADP measure. One thing I will say over the past five months, if you look at these numbers here, you can see that every single month since January, the non-farm payrolls has actually beaten ADP. So on that basis, you could probably argue that we could actually see a 300,000 number on the non-farm payrolls to keep up that level of outperformance that we've seen since the beginning of this year. So you can see the jobs growth on ADP over the first three months of this year. It's averaging around about 170,000. The last three months comes in around about 222,000. So if you translate that from US Q1 GDP at 2.9% contraction, which obviously we saw last week, it's a massive contraction of the US economy. And you look at the economic data that we've seen in April, May and June, relative to January, February, March. It has absolutely been better. But the question I think really needs to be asked is that given the fact that we saw a near 3% contraction in the US economy in Q1, are we going to see a plus 3% or 4% expansion in Q2? And I have my doubts as to whether certainly a 4% expansion is possible. And I think that's what markets are really looking to price in at the moment. They're looking to price in around about 4% expansion in Q2. Now you could certainly make the case for that if the June number comes in anywhere near the ADP number yesterday. But certainly given the fact that the US economy is very much consumer led, you really have to ask yourself where that expansion is going to come from. Because if we look at retail sales in Q1, they came in at 1.5%. We had a 0.9% contraction in January and expansion in February. And then a 1.5% expansion in March, which equates to around about half a percent growth retail sales over the quarter. To date so far in Q2, which is supposed to be signalling a significant bounce back in consumer sentiment, retail sales have been really disappointing. So has durable goods. So if you look at durable goods and you look at retail sales and then you compare them to manufacturing, there is a slight disconnect there with respect to what the manufacturing sector is doing and it is improving. We can see that on the PMIs, we can see that on the ISM, but the consumer is holding back. And I think given the fact that the US economy, 70% of it is consumer driven, that is a real concern for me going forward. So certainly be interested to see what the June retail sales numbers for the US will be over the course of the next couple of weeks. We should get some colour on that. We've certainly seen improving consumer confidence. We've got 81.7 in April, we've got 83 in May, and we've got 85 in June. But it's quite noticeable that despite the fact that consumer confidence rose in May, retail sales dropped back. So again, we've got that apparent disconnect between what confidence data is telling us and what the actual data on the ground, the hard data is telling us. And we've also got to remember that again, we're near the, we're at all-time highs at the moment for US markets. We're just below 17,000 on the Dow, on the futures contracts as we can see from here. You can see from this little chart that I've drawn that the 17,000 hasn't actually dealt there yet. We've come within a hares of breadth of it. Around about 16,999, we actually haven't touched the 17,000. If we get a good number, I think the key question for me, I think is the narrative, is the narrative going to continue to be positive for US markets? What we've also got to remember is we have a long weekend. We've seen good gains so far this week. What's it going to take for the markets to sustain those gains over a long weekend, given the fact that Q3 earnings season starts next week? I think that's one of the key questions. We've seen very good gains this week. You can see the day so far. If I change that to a weekly chart, that bears it out even more. Very strong gains there. But once again, we've been pretty much trading sideways, albeit with a slightly upward bias for quite some time to come. We're pushing against the upper boundary. We don't as yet have the capability to push above 17,000. Maybe the payrolls numbers coming out shortly will give us the catalyst to do that. Looking at the key levels on the S&P, again, we are looking at the 2,000 level. We remain quite some way away from that. I don't think we'll see that today. Good chance we may see 17,000 on the Dow, but I think it's unlikely we'll see 1,980 on the S&P 500. I think we've really got to think about the expectations and what the market will do in the event of a good number, an indifferent number and a disappointing number. I don't think there's any doubt about the fact that stock markets want to go up. Certainly Janet Yellen's comments yesterday to the IMF seem to suggest that the Fed is going to remain on its current policy of tapering, but with interest rates at very low a bound for quite some time to come. But certainly a good number could well see the FTSE push up back towards the upper end of its range, which is around about 6,890. The FTSE 100 has outperformed over the past two or three days relative to the rest of Europe's markets because certainly the DAX is nowhere near. Well, I'll say it's nowhere near. It's quite some way away from the highs, the all-time highs that it put in earlier in June around just above 10,000. I think one of the reasons why the FTSE has started to actually gain a little bit of attraction has really been as a result of those Chinese figures that we saw out earlier this week. And overnight as well, very good services, PMI data out of China, which does seem to suggest that maybe that particular economy is starting to stabilise, copper prices are starting to rise, and in general I think commodity prices are starting to rise. But what we mustn't also forget going into the weekend is geopolitical risk because Iran and Ukraine, Iraq rather, and Ukraine still remain a clear and present danger to risk appetite going forward. And as we know from past experience, sometimes going long into a long weekend is probably not the best policy potentially if something sort of breaks or something untoward happens over the weekend with respect to geopolitics and the insurgent risk in Iraq. Certainly that risk has diminished. We can see that in the context of the crude oil prices. But certainly in the context of what I'm looking at over the non-farm payrolls, data which is going to be coming out shortly is really the dolly yen. We should get a good indication of the dolly yen or the direction of the dollar in the event of a good number with respect to the dolly yen price. So what we're looking for, well the consensus is anywhere between $1.60 and $2.90. I'm going for $2.35, and that's my consensus. If anyone has got a view that's slightly divergent to that, please feel free to chuck it over using the chat facility. Please feel free to ask any questions that you may have about a particular market that you want me to look at. One of the things that I've done is I've basically put, I think the likelihood is we'll get a slightly stronger dollar. I think even if we don't get a slightly stronger dollar, Mr. Draghi will try and talk the euro down. So I certainly think the risk on euro dollar is more to the downside than the upside. I think if we get a move to $1.37, I think this is a good place to probably go short of it for a move back to around about $1.36 and $1.35. That's certainly the attitude that I'm taking. I've got a couple of little limit orders on, sell orders on sterling and the cable at $1.70, $1.80 and $1.36.90, you can see that there. So they'll get triggered if we get a little bit of dollar weakness after the numbers. I still think ultimately we're in a range. Certainly looking at the U.S. Treasury market, the potential there I think is for further declines in Treasury prices, which would seem to suggest that if we get higher, lower Treasury prices, we get higher yields. And that's certainly something that I'm looking to see in the context of this particular chart here on the 10-year. I think this does appear to be pointing lower. It does appear to be suggesting that we may get a fairly strong number on the non-farm payrolls. So what I'm quickly to go to my Bloomberg, these are the numbers that we're looking for, ladies and gentlemen. Hopefully you can see them. I'm going to give you a quick overview of what I'm looking for. So basically the main number is the unemployment rate. Now there is a good chance we could get a rise in the unemployment rate. Why? Because given how strong the fall in the unemployment rate was last month and given the fact that there's an awful lot of what I would say optimism about the U.S. economy, you may find that some discouraged workers have come back onto the unemployment rotors and therefore that could then push the amount of people looking for work up and as such push the unemployment rate up. So just because the unemployment rate goes up doesn't necessarily mean it's a bad thing. It just means that people may feel more confident about finding a job and come back on the rotor to look for a new job. This number here is what we're expecting, 215,000 out of 94 economists surveyed. Last month's number was 217, so again not really too much of a difference. What I will be particularly interested in is given the fact that the Federal Reserve means, here we go, 262, very good number, 262 revised up to 246.1 the unemployment rate, so it's pretty good across the board, very positive for the dollar, and therefore I think most definitely we will see a strong rise in the dollar. Also we've seen a significant rise in average earnings, so again that's fairly positive for the dollar. It breathes into the prospect of higher rates and again we've seen strong move down in U.S. treasuries, strong move higher in Dolly N, that suggests that we could well see further gains to around about $1,250 in Dolly N. Certainly we should see a further drop in the pound and the euro, and I certainly think it certainly makes Mr. Draghi's job an awful lot easier that particular number. It's a very good number and as such we could well see the euro lower. So let's just quickly have a closer look at these numbers. Weekly jobless claims, again fairly good, 315,000. The under-employment rate has dropped to 12.1. So pretty much across the board a very, very strong number. 288, not 262, I was looking at the wrong number. 288 for non-farm payrolls, my mistake there. I was looking at the private payrolls number, so again a very positive number. We're getting a strong rally higher in the dollar. I wouldn't jump on the back of it yet. I'd certainly look for a little bit of a pullback, a knee-jerk pullback. Certainly if I'm looking at euro-dollar, in particular we were trading around about 136.50 when those numbers came out. I think the likelihood is we could get a little bit of a pullback to that level, but we also need to be aware that there's a strong trend line support on the euro-dollar coming in around about just below the 136 level there. So we certainly need to see some evidence of a push through there and maybe Mr. Draghi could give us that. So certainly look for a pullback in euro-dollar to around about 136.40 to try for another push lower. Looking at the pound against the dollar, we've had a good run so far at 171.80 level, looks a fairly good resistance level and actually given the make-up of this three-candle formation here, I think if we close pretty much where we are now then I think there's a good chance we could have a little bit of a return back to 170.40 and maybe even 170 over the short to medium term because I think the fact that average earnings in the US have aged up, jobs growth has aged up, the Fed is going to find it very, very difficult to fight back against the expectation that they're going to be able to keep rates lower for longer. And everyone is factoring in that the Bank of England may be the first central bank to raise rates. I don't think it's really that much in question. I think what could well happen though is that the time horizon for the Fed to raise rates could start to move closer to the Bank of England. So the push pull of the sterling and the dollar interest rate or yield curve could actually start to come in more in the dollar's favor than it has been at the moment. But certainly those numbers are very broadly positive for the US dollar and as such, I think the period of Euro strength that we've been seeing it's going to be much, much more difficult for Euro dollar to rally much beyond 137 or the highs this week given those fairly strong numbers. And certainly the expectation is that Mr. Draghi, as he's talking now, he's talking right now in his press conference, I'll just pull that over to your screens and have a quick look at it. There he is having a little chatter along talking about the economies continuing to grow in Q2. The danger that he's got is that he doesn't want to appear too positive about the economy because that would essentially mean that that could underpin the Euro. So he wants to remain, he needs to walk a tightrope essentially between remaining dovish but not remaining too pessimistic either and basically managing expectations about the direction of monetary policy lower rates for longer but cautiously optimistic that this lower rates for longer will deliver what he wants it to deliver in the context of some growth and a reduction in unemployment. So does anyone have any questions on any markets that I haven't as yet covered? Actually, there is one market that I should have mentioned before I came on and I'm a little bit annoyed with myself that I didn't mention it. Aussie dollar. That number is going to be very bad for the Aussie and very good for the US dollar. We've seen this trend line break down here through 9350. We heard overnight the RBA's Stevens talk about the fact that he doesn't want a higher Aussie. He thinks the Aussie is overvalued. We saw weak economic data this week from the Australian economy. We saw a significant trade deficit largely impacted by a very sharp fall in exports. Not really surprising when you consider the value of the Aussie at this time. Just being asked about the gold market, I will cover that. No, you didn't and that's my mistake. I should have actually talked about that but as you can imagine that particular number is not going to be particularly good for gold. We're at the top end of the range for that before I started to speak and I would imagine we've dropped back quite sharply without even looking at it. Let me just have a quick look at that. As regards the Aussie, I think we're going to probably see further declines in that towards the 200-day moving average. We've certainly seen a sharp fall in the gold price as we can see from this chart here. Every time we've gone anywhere near 1,330, we've found significant interest to sell. Certainly using this oscillator that I tend to use, it's generally fairly reliable in plotting the highs and the lows in the gold price. It got it here and it looks to me as if it could well have got it here. If you do need to talk to me, someone is trying to talk to me, HMC, you need to talk to me on the chat, the chat facility, talk to me on that and I can answer your question. I actually can't see your question the way that you've asked me at the moment. If you use the chat facility, you can direct your question to me across that. Looking at the gold price, we can see that it's heading back towards the lows this week and I would certainly expect to see a test of these lows around about 1,306 at the moment. It's tried to push lower, it's started to come back. The thing with gold is at the moment it's being pulled and pushed in two directions. Because it's such a safe haven and because there's so much geopolitical risk going on at the moment, you're finding it underpinned on the one hand by concerns about geopolitics, but on the other hand you're seeing it undermined by the fact that the Fed will continue to pull back on its monetary easing policy. But I don't think that's really in doubt. Everyone pretty much takes it as standard that interest rates could well be starting to turn higher. So then really it's a question of what do you think is going to hold gold at its currently elevated levels? And really for me it's the cost of reducing it. I think if gold falls much below $1,200 it becomes uneconomically viable for miners to dig it out of the ground and therefore they'll stop mining it. That should underpin the price. But to go higher we need to break above 1,330 and 1,400 and again I don't think the conditions are in place to do that. So at the moment with respect to gold it's very much a range trade. It's a range trade between the upper boundaries of around 1,330 and the lower boundaries that we've seen at the beginning of June around about 1,250 and 1,260. In essence yes I do think it'll test 1,295 again of being asked, yeah I think there's a very good chance that will happen over the course of the next month or so. There's no reason to suppose that it won't. I think the geopolitical concerns at the moment are manageable. I certainly don't think there's any risk of a significant deterioration in the short to medium term but I certainly do think that we can drift back down there but certainly we should find a little bit of support down there. Certainly around about 1,280,1,285 that would be certainly the level I would expect to maybe think about going along again. Been asked about Dollar Canada. Again that's another very interesting chart certainly on a long term basis. We've seen that here. If we look at this long term chart I think there's a good chance we may have found a little bit of a base on Dollar Canada. Let's look at this chart here which I drew about an hour ago in preparation for this. We've come down quite sharply over the course of the last few days or so. Now the Canadian economic data that we've seen recently has been okay but it's not been, it's been okay and it's reflected in this particular move lower in the Dollar CAD but we are now approaching a very key support level on Dollar CAD. We've broken below the 200 day moving average but we could well find support just around these levels at the moment. Now here we have a potential reversal pattern. Now those of you who don't know, I like to look at candlestick patterns to get an idea of where the market's going to go next and this pattern here is a fairly, it's not a weak reversal pattern. It's a medium term reversal pattern. It's called a piercing pattern and that does seem to suggest that maybe we could get a little bit of a pullback in the Dollar Canada back towards 107 and possibly 108. So if I just highlight that for you, ladies and gentlemen, this is what I'm looking at. This here. Okay so basically we have a strong down candle at the end of a downtrend and then we have an almost complete reversal. It's not quite a bullish engulfing pattern. It's a piercing pattern whereby the whole body of the candle goes more than 75% into the body of the previous candle. Now that suggests to me that we could well see a bit of a rebound on Dollar CAD back to around about 107.50 and these twin lows here. What we mustn't see is a move below the lows that we saw yesterday. Otherwise the pattern is completely negated. So certainly on the risk of reward basis here, I think the odds favour a little bit of a short squeeze over the course of the next few trading sessions for a move back to around about 107.108. Being asked about the WTI, WTI spread. Is that what you're asking me, the WTI or WTI oil? Okay WTI. Now WTI, I thought we were going to go quite a bit higher over the course of the next few trading sessions. Actually that hasn't happened and this also feeds into my theory about inflation in the US. If you look at where oil prices were and have been over the last six months with respect to the US, they've come from lows of around about $92 a barrel to around about where they are now which is 104. That's a 13 or 14% rise. Gasoline prices are much higher than they are, much higher now than they were in the winter. That's got to be inflationary. That doesn't appear to be being totally reflected in the inflation prices. Now looking at WTI, I certainly think there's potential for a little bit of weakness now that we've dropped back below these breakout levels that we saw earlier in June. When we broke higher, I was certainly looking for a move to around 110.111. We haven't seen that. Therefore I'm out of the equation and then I now have to reassess. Reassessing this, now that we're back inside this triangle, then you've really got to think that maybe WTI is going to drift lower. Certainly if you look in the context of US inventories, then there's plenty of supply and as such we should come back down. Now what does that mean for Brent? Well Brent again is probably a completely different animal to WTI and as such I think maybe the spread could widen out because I certainly think there's more scope for WTI to fall than there is for Brent to fall. Certainly looking at the Brent chart here, we could certainly fall back to around about, at the moment we're trading around about just below 111, we could probably drop back to around about 109 but certainly overall it does look here on my little stochastic is if we are starting to get sometime near a little bit of a short-term base, we've dropped below the 40-day moving average. Let's say when we've dropped below the 40-day moving average before we've usually only spent about four or five days below it before we've ticked higher again. If that pattern is repeated then I think the downside in Brent is likely to be more limited than the downside in WTI. Okay so hopefully was that okay guys? You probably don't agree with me but that's fine. Oh yes and silver as well, silver. Will silver hold the 2095 level? If I knew that I'd be a very rich man. Let's have a look. Well I think the mechanics of silver are slightly different. Again we're in this range of lows around about the 2095 level. Let's just draw a horizontal line in through there to see where the supply comes in. Actually we could probably drop to 2070 because we've got very long shadows on all of these candles. Now that tells me that there's plenty of demand for silver at very low levels. If we drop below 2060, 2070 then obviously I reassess that but certainly at the moment while we're above 2060, 2070 then the bias I think for silver still remains towards the upside but we could see a little bit of weakness in the short to medium term while we're trading sideways which is what we have been over the course of the last couple of weeks.  If you want to listen back to any of this I will be posting it on YouTube later for you to listen back to. Otherwise I'd like to thank you all for your company today. Hopefully you found it informative and interesting and hopefully you make lots of money this afternoon and enjoy the rest of your day.


Hello everyone. Welcome to Options with Doug. Streaming live daily on Bookbap Discord and the Bookbap YouTube channel at 1.30 p.m. Eastern Time. Before I get started I need to go through the Disclosures. General Disclosure, all Bookbap limited materials, information, and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations. Risk Disclosure, treating futures equities and options involves substantial risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors. Pass performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Here's my content and contact information. The best way to get in touch with me is through Discord. My name on Discord is Doug P. Also in Bookbap Discord there's an options-dog chat channel that's a great place to post questions, comments, and content related to the topics of my presentation and the topics of the channel that I'll go through in just a moment. Note, Bookbap Discord has a wide variety of content, asset classes, stocks, options, futures, crypto, and also in a wide variety of languages. I'm also on X, formerly known as Twitter. My name there is at Doug Pless. Yesterday evening I did post on Twitter an NVIDIA setup that I talked about yesterday, NVIDIA long. If you're active on Twitter, please take a look. If you like what you see, give me a like and a follow. Here are the key tenets to my approach to trading. This is the basis of my approach to trading. First of all, I believe options, trades, and market maker hedging activity are key drivers of price and many stocks and futures. And for the S&B 500, SPX is the underlying index. SPI is the ETF version of that index and ES is a derivative of SPX. So when traders buy and sell puts and calls and SPX and SPI, market makers take the opposite side of those trades and they hedge their delta exposure with ES futures. And for the NASDAQ 100, NDX is the underlying index. QQQ is the ETF version of that index and NQ is a derivative of NDX. And when traders buy and sell puts and calls and NDX and QQQ, market makers take the opposite side of those trades and they hedge their delta exposure within Q futures. The focus of my presentation today and the focus of the options-duck chat channel is options order flow, the impact of options markets on stocks and futures, and the influence of market maker hedging flow on price action. I have a two-step process for trading and the first is planning. And I use positional analysis. I look at how traders and market makers are positioned in the options market and how those positions change from day to day to develop a thesis regarding the expected trading range and volatility for the day, as well as the directional bias. And the second step in my process is execution. I look at real-time order flow and book map and real-time market maker hedging flow and spot gamma hero to confirm my thesis and for setups. And when I talk about setups today, I'll be focusing on an underlying asset. For example, for the SB500, setups can be taken with ES futures, SPY shares, SPY options, SPX options, or even ES options. Questions and comments are welcome and I will be watching both the options-duck chat channel as well as the chat and YouTube for your questions and comments. Please feel free to post. I'll do my best to answer your questions. Hello, Steven. Welcome. Glad you're here. Excuse me. Here's my agenda for today, Friday, March 8th. First of all, I want to go over news items, economic data, and events for today. Then I'll go through my positional analysis. Then I'll review my some setups from earlier today. And then I'll take a look at the live market. And when I get to the live market, if anyone has any stocks they want me to take a look at, please let me know and I'll be glad to do that. Hello, Don. Welcome. Glad you're here. All right. News items for today. Of course, the big event, economic data release for the week was the jobs report. And that came in greater than expected and also greater than the revised previous number than the unemployment rate came in greater than expected, also greater than the previous number, so higher. All right, let's take a look at the market reaction to that. So this is the ES Futures and Bookmap, currently breaking two new lows. So this is the 8.30 a.m. unemployment data. Right here. This is the reaction to the jobs report. Bullish reaction and move a little bit move lower and then we'll talk more about this in a few minutes, what the ES SBX and SB500 is doing. All right, so that was the reaction to the data today. Initially bullish. All right, that is a, that's a spot gamma alert. We'll take a look at that in just a minute. Hello, Mark, using trading price and time afternoon. Good afternoon to you. Welcome. Glad you're here. All right, so as I said before, this is the ES Futures and Bookmap, currently breaking two new lows. Before I take a closer look at this chart, I do want to take a look at a larger timeframe. I'm going to take a look at the SPX. That's the underlying index. So I'm going to go to a one day chart. This isn't thinkorswim. So the current rally began last year, October 30th, and SPX rallied up the last time it looked about 1080 points from low to high. During this year, SPX, the call wall has moved up from 4800 to 5200. That's the current location that's shown on this chart. So that was a one day chart. Now we're going to take a look at the upper end of that range for the rally. There's that trend line that I was just talking about. Current high. SPX made a high today, 50, 51, 89. I'll talk more about the call wall in just a minute. All right, so let me point out the daily levels on this chart, the levels on this chart. First of all, the dash purple lines are showing the lower and upper weekly expected move. That's based on the options market. I update that once a week. That's based on the closing price for SPX from last Friday. And then the dash blue lines are showing the lower and upper daily expected move. Also based on the options market, based on the closing price from yesterday, I post those numbers in Bookmap Discord and the options-dash-dug chat channel every evening. And quite a move today, almost from the upper daily expected move now down to the upper lower daily expected move. All right, so those are the expected moves. Again, I post both those numbers in the options-dash-dug chat channel the evening before. All right, the other lines on this chart are Spot Gamma levels. These are proprietary Spot Gamma levels that are provided to Spot Gamma subscribers available on a wide variety of training platforms. This is Think or Swim. I'm going to point out the key daily levels. First of all, here's the put wall. That's strike with a large net negative gamma. That can be expected to act as support. The next level up is 5,000. That is the absolute gamma strike. That's a strike with the largest absolute positive and negative gamma. So that's where most of the gamma-weighted open interest is concentrated. Then above that is the volatility trigger VT. That's at 5,095. And then a Spot Gamma is proprietary volatility flip level. Below that level, market makers position on the gamma curve is negative. In a negative gamma environment, market makers have to trade with price to hitch their delta exposure. And that tends to enhance or increase volatility. On the other hand, above that level, market makers position on the gamma curve is positive. So note that SPX is still trading above its volatility trigger. Gamma Notional was positive to begin the day. So above that level, market makers position on the gamma curve again is positive. In a positive gamma environment, market makers have to trade against price to hitch their delta exposure. That tends to subdue or decrease volatility. And then the final level, key daily level is the call wall at 5,200. That's a strike with largest net positive gamma that can be expected to act as resistance. It looked like earlier today that SPX was heading up toward that level before that sharp reversal lower. All right, so those are the key daily levels. Let's wrap up our view of SPX by now looking at a one minute chart just so we get an idea of the levels and play for today. All right, so this dark shaded portion is the regular trading hours for today. All right, so it looks like now SPX has broken down below its lower daily expected move. Again, the volatility trigger at 5,095 is still down below. And earlier today, it looked like SPX was going to make it up to the upper daily expected move, upper weekly expected move just above that. And then the call wall just above that. But that sharp reversal, somewhere between 10 and 1030, as we'll see in a minute what was what I think was moving the market options traders. So again, SPX now reverse lower on its way up to those levels above. Now down below the lower daily expected move and also this 5,150 that has acted as resistance earlier. All right, let's take a look at book map now. And book map, I have my own cloud notes so I can show SPX levels. There's that 5,150 level that I was just talking about. So that's SPX 5,150. That was noted as a support level in the spot gamma am founders note. You can't see it here. But this white line is SPX 5,188. And that was noted as resistance in the spot gamma am founders note. And that was about resistance for the day. This cluster of levels, the spy 518 that 5,188 in the upper daily expected move, acting as resistance. So again, I have SPX levels on this chart. I also have spy levels. The yellow numbers just showing spy round double levels. Here's the spy 515 absolute gamma strike call wall. And then I also have key levels for ES. There's the 5150 level upper weekly expected move upper daily expected move. Note, there is a difference in price between ES and SPX. And that offset today is actually over four now. This morning when I was looking at it, it was closer to three and a half. So that's what I'm using. So I'm showing SPX 5150 at 51 53.5 ES 51 53.5. And it should actually be 51 54. And maybe even higher, maybe four and a half. I would say four. So the the EST SPX offset is four. All right, shifts and levels for SPX, there were none. And then for spy, the put wall shifted lower, and the absolute gamma strike shifted higher to 515 that I just mentioned. And note that I do post all the index relationships that I'm using in discord. I post the preliminary numbers around 9am and the final numbers around 10am. Also note that these was talk about ES to SPX that difference will converge down to zero or close to zero at the options roll over the the March, June, September, and December. And this is the last day that I will be using the March contract, the H contract. So on Monday, I'll roll over to June. And that difference that ES to SPX offset will widen out quite a bit. It could be up close to 50 points. So I'll talk about that on Monday. Alright, so for today, though, that offset is about four points. Alright, so I mentioned before this cluster of levels up above, acting as resistance. 518 51 88 upper daily expected move. Earlier today, the 515 spy 515 acted as support. And now the SB 500 is down to the spy 511 volatility trigger. And that's also just above the SPX 515 support level that was noted as support. And the spot game I am founders know. Alright, we'll talk more about setups in a few minutes. I mentioned shifts and levels just minor shifts for spy. Let's move on to NASDAQ. This is the NQ futures and book map. Pretty similar chart. Initial bullish reaction to the jobs report. Reversal between 10 and 1030. And now making new lows of the day. So before I take a closer look at this chart, I do want to take a look at the underlying index charts. Here's QQQ. Alright, earlier today, this 445 level act as a support. And that is a that's not one of the key daily levels. But that that is a gamma level around 418 448 acting as resistance. And now QQQ down at this combo level. And note that 440 is the absolute gamma strike. Alright, for QQQ. There was actually a bullish hat trick for levels shift higher and levels. The volatility trigger put wall and call wall also shifted higher from yesterday. That is bullish bullish hat trick. And the call wall shifted up to 450. The only level that remained from yesterday was the 440 absolute gamma strike. Alright, we'll get to that. Sorry about that sound that is alerts for spot gamma hero. We'll take a look at that in just a minute. Alright, so that is the the levels for QQQ quite a range today. Let's take a quick look at ndx. And for ndx, there was also a bullish bullish hat trick. Volatility trigger put wall and absolute gamma strike all shifted higher. So this is the 18,000 absolute gamma strike for ndx. Looks like it may be acting as support so far. Let me zoom in just a little bit. So this is about a day and a half worth of data. So our pretty spectacular reverse lower for the NASDAQ and the SB 500. And note, this is the upper daily expected move for NQ. Also acting as resistance. I also have my cloud notes here for NASDAQ. So I'm showing key numbers for NASDAQ. The red numbers are the zeros in the 50s for NQ. Quite a move lower. So far, right around 400 points lower. Daily expected now down below the lower daily expected move. Also the lower weekly expected move. There's that 18,000 absolute gamma strike. Huge move lower for NASDAQ. Sometimes the options market gets ahead of the the actual actual market. Again, we'll talk about setups in a few minutes. Alright, let's take a look. Let's wrap up positional analysis by taking a look at gamma notional. And then we'll take a look at the Vana model. That isn't something important to take a look at today. Alright, so this is gamma notional market makers position on the gamma curve at the beginning of the day. For the SME 500, NASDAQ, also 2000. Note all these numbers are positive. That indicates at the beginning of the day, market makers position on the gamma curve was positive. In a positive gamma environment, this indicates that traders are for an index traders are short calls market makers a long call since the positive gamma, and they have to trade against price to hedge their delta exposure. And for SPX and NDX, the numbers shifted lower. And for spine QQQ, the numbers shifted higher compared to yesterday. Alright, let's take a look now at the Vana model. This is definitely in play for today. And gives us an idea of how market makers may be reacting to changes in price and applied volatility. What this chart is showing is market makers delta notional their delta exposure on the vertical axis, the spot price for SPX on the horizontal axis. There are two curves on this chart. The first curve like gray curve shows how market makers delta notional may change with changes in price and price only. Then the purple curve adds implied volatility to the equation that shows how market makers delta notional may change with changes in price and applied volatility. And the purple curve is the one we want to take a look at. All right, so let's take a look at our SPX chart again. So SPX trading right around 41 19 right now lows of the day. Let's find that on this chart. 51 19 somewhere around here. Alright, so as price has been falling, market makers delta notional has been increasing. So their delta notional increases, they want to remain delta neutral. So they have to sell futures to hedge their delta exposure. So this is 10. This is enhancing or increasing the volatility when trader market makers are trading with price. And let's just take a quick look at a chart for VIX. This is a multi day chart. Let's let's take a look at today. So VIX has been moving up pretty much from the open. Even as price was moving up for about a half an hour after the cash open. Alright, so VIX is up pretty substantially about 7% today so far. So we know that starting around 10am 10 to 10 30 price was falling implied volatility increasing. Market makers delta notional was increasing. They want to remain delta neutral. So they have to sell futures to hedge their delta exposure. Alright, so that is setting up our positional analysis for today. So just based on the gamma notional, I was looking for moderate volatility today. And the VANA model is showing as price has been dropping. VIX increasing that volatility is definitely increasing during the day. And just based on the shifts and levels, I was pretty much neutral for the SB500. And initially bullish for the NASDAQ based on the hat tricks bullish hat tricks for NDX and QQQ. Alright, let me check for questions. Hello, G cell. Wonder if you read YouTube chat messages. I do read them live. But I do not generally do not go back and look at previous chat in YouTube. So if you want something that's more persistent, join us in the options dash jug chat channel and bookbap discord and SK serif. Ask, Can you please analyze nifty 50? Sorry, I don't know what nifty 50 is. I here's what I here's what I follow. Yes, futures, NASDAQ futures, and the large cap tech stocks, the Magnificent Seven and a few other stocks. Sorry, nifty 50. SK says nifty 50 is an Indian, Indian index. Sorry, I do not. But there are there is an Indian in a trading room for Indian speakers or an India trading room in discord book map discord. Sorry, that was hard to spit out. So again, if you want more about the nifty 50, just join us in book map discord. And there's a trading room and also a webinar for the Indian stock market. Alright, so G cell was asking about book map basics. I really say well, first of all, I suggest for book map basics, you go to the book map dot book map dot com website, go to the learning center, you can get started there. There are a number of number of videos, and then also join Bruce. He is the director of education at book map. And his webinar is Monday, Tuesday and Friday at 10am. And he he goes over the basics. So my my focus, as I said in my introduction, is really focused on options and a more advanced use of book map and spot gamma. Alright, so SK, if you're want to use book map for scalping, I suggest Bruce's webinar as well. And I do talk about trading, but I alt forms of day trading, but I look at a larger timeframe. Alright, let's move on. Let's start with some setups now. Alright, so everything that we've looked at so far, this Vana model, gamma notional, the levels on the charts, that's based on static data that's updated once a day sometime overnight spot gamma takes open interest data. And they apply their proprietary algorithms to that data to come up with the information that we were just looking at that I use for my planning and positional analysis. Now let's move on to execution. We'll look at real time data. I'm going to start by taking a look at what options traders have been doing today. So this is the hero signal, H I R O hedging impact real time options. What this chart is showing is options trades and market maker hedging activity for a combined signal of SPX by XSP and ES futures all under one combined signal. The white line on this chart is showing price for SPX. And the purple line is the hero signal. A rising purple line rising hero signal indicates traders are taking positive delta positions. They're buying calls and or selling puts in a following hero signal indicates traders are taking negative delta positions. They are buying puts and or selling calls. And this number here to the right, that is the total delta notional for the day. And that is quite negative. At let me see what this at the low of the day that was right around minus nine billion that may be the lowest number I've ever seen. Very, very negative. Alright, let's zoom in on this chart. We'll take a look at a setup. Alright, the key to this chart. This is just a beautiful divergence set up. Initially, traders traders were taking positive delta positions. And note how the hero signal shifts lower just around 1010 price consolidates. And then it took quite a while for it finally to start moving lower. Just a great divergent signal, giving you plenty of time to look for an entry for a short. It just doesn't get any better than this. Alright, so let's go to yes, zoom in. Hello, Caesar. Welcome glad you're here. And Steven, thanks a lot for your help in YouTube. Really helping me out answer those questions answering those questions. Alright, so remember about 1010. Traders started taking negative delta positions. So we're right in here. And then he has started to make a series of lower highs. And there were more aggressive sellers coming in that shown by the volume dots. Green volume dots you see on the way up here. Those are indicating they're more buyers than sellers. Magenta dots indicate more sellers and buyers, those are market orders, aggressive buyers and sellers. More aggressive sellers coming in as prices making lower highs and traders are taking negative delta positions. During this time around 1030 cumulative volume delta shown by the dark blue line starts to make lower highs. Then everything shifts pretty sharply lower just right after 11am. And as price starts to move lower, the yellow line is showing cell stop orders fuel the move lower. Also shown by the on chart indicator. Right so great, great short, phenomenal leading indicator for hero today. Great divergent signal zoom out. Midday consolidation, then price breaks lower. All the lines in the sub chart falling. Again, the yellow line is stop orders cell stop orders fueling the move lower. And also note the light blue line that's showing iceberg orders. Often large and that's what large traders use to hide their size. Often they will be moving in the opposite direction of price. And today they're moving in the same direction. cumulative volume delta falling cell stop orders fueling move lower, as well as large traders with cell iceberg orders. They're using to hide their size. Very, very bearish day as options traders are also taking negative delta positions. Let's go back to hero. I'm going to switch to puts and calls. And I'm gonna have to jump to another signal, and then jump back to avoid the auto zoom. Alright, so these now are separated outputs and calls. The orange line is showing calls. So initially in the morning, traders were buying calls. And then just right around 1010. They stopped buying calls started selling calls. And pretty much from the open traders were buying puts that shown by the falling blue line. The direction of these lines is in terms of delta. So falling blue line indicates traders are buying puts that's negative delta. And then falling orange line indicates traders are selling calls that's also negative delta. So when both the orange line and the blue line are moving in the same direction, that's a very powerful directional indicator. With both moving down, it's difficult for the market to move any direction other than down. So based on everything that I've looked at, I'll we'll talk about in just a few minutes. The SMB 500, the call buyers to sellers were leading the market lower. Alright, let's take a look at NASDAQ now. And for NASDAQ, I like to take a look at this mag seven signal. So let me show you what this is. This is another combined signal. This is showing options trades and market maker heading at hedging activity for the stocks known as the Magnificent seven, Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla. And this has been a very good indicator for the NASDAQ. These stocks make up a very large component of the NASDAQ 100 and lead the NASDAQ 100 and somewhat the SMB 500 up and down. Alright, so initially in the morning, traders buying calls that abruptly stopped at 1030. They started selling calls. They were also selling puts that abruptly shifted at 1030. They started buying puts. Again, orange line, blue line moving in the same direction. Alright, RS, I was just going over that RS ask, can I explain those lines? Alright, the white line is the price. And that's actually the price for QQQ that shown here price for QQQ. And then the orange line rising orange line indicates traders of buying calls. And that combined signal for the mag seven stocks, when traders buy calls, market maker sell the calls. And they have to buy stock to hedge their delta exposure. That are roughly shifted at 1030. Traders started selling calls that shown by the falling orange line. The blue line is showing puts rising. These are in terms of delta rising blue line indicates traders are selling puts. And a falling blue line indicates traders are buying puts. So again, that shifted right around 1030. Let's go take a look at NASDAQ and book map. So this is the upper daily expected move for NQ, that dash blue line. That's what acted as resistance. That's where the NASDAQ turned lower. Let's zoom in. It'll take me a minute to adjust this chart. There's so much range in the previous few. Sorry about that. Right, we'll leave it there. Alright, so let's take a look at the volume dots first. Green volume dots, more buyers than sellers, aggressive buyers on the way up, aggressive sellers start to come in as NQ approaches the upper daily expected move. And then NQ starts to make a series of lower highs, more aggressive sellers coming in, shown by the magenta volume dots, cumulative volume delta shifts lower, shown by the dark blue line. And as price starts to move lower, sell stop orders help to fuel the move lower. As traders were taking negative delta positions in the mag seven stocks, right, we'll just zoom all the way out. And unlike the ES, now it looks like large traders are attempting to buy fade this move lower with iceberg orders they're using to hide their size again, the rising light blue line indicates indicates large traders are buying with buy iceberg orders. Alright, so RS says you can configure sound output levels for different applications. Sorry, I'm not sure how to use that. Alright, if the if the alerts are an annoyance, I can turn those off. Alright, let's take a look at some stocks now. Alright, the first stock I want to take a look at is Apple. Apple bucking the trend today. So let's go to hero. Take a look at Apple. Call buyers definitely driving price higher and Apple note the flow alert that came in just around 945. Rising orange line indicates traders are buying calls. And when traders buy calls, market makers sell the calls. And they have to buy stocked as their delta exposure. And note that Apple is now trading above its 172 50 call wall. Haven't seen that in quite a while. Alright, let's go take a look at book map and Apple. So 172 50. It's not shown on this chart. But 172 50 is the call wall. It's right here this liquidity. Apple made it up to that level reverse lower. And now is moving higher. Note the rising cumulative volume delta a lot of aggressive buyers in buying Apple. Alright, the next is AMD. And the recent daily range for AMD has been been quite large. There was a time where AMD moved maybe two or three points a day. And now you can see it is quite large. Huge run up in the morning. And then just spectacular reversal right at 1030 with the mag seven stocks. Let's see what options traders are doing. Let's go to AMD, aggressive call buyers. And the morning note to 210 is the call wall key gamma strike and put wall just below that at 207 50. So again, traders buying calls right around 1030 that shifts. They start selling calls, start buying puts blue line orange line moving in the same direction. And price moves lower. Alright, let's check the 210 level on the 207 50 level. So there's the 210 level call wall and put wall. Summer between these two levels at 207 50. So AMD did trade below its put wall earlier today. Alright, the next meta just volume dots just a little bit. Alright, for meta 520 is the call wall. Price breached that level briefly. This is very typical for meta. Let's just take a look at at hero. Let's go to meta. This is very typical for meta. aggressive call buyers that the open note the flow alert that comes in looks like around 935. 500 is the key gamma strike. 520 the call wall price breaches that call wall level. Call buyers take their foot off the gas. 1020 so ahead of the 1030 reversal for the mag seven signal, traders start selling calls. So a little bit of a leading indicator for the mag seven stocks. As traders start selling calls, price of versus lower. Remember, 500 is the key gamma strike. 500 looks like that may be acting as support. 500 key gamma strike 520 call wall reversal at that level. And price moves all the way down 20 points to the 500 key gamma strike. Also note the liquidity that stacks up at these levels. Typically for stocks, this liquidity shown by the the heat map and book map, the darker bands indicate there are more errors or more orders in the order book. So the heat map showing history, the limit orders in the order book, typically for stock, the limit orders, high price stock like meta limit orders will stack up at the zeros and the fives. And for stock, also, they typically stay in the order book from the around the cash open until they're filled. sell orders up above price here at 520. They were consumed price moves lower down to the 500 level. And consuming orders, buy orders that at that level. Let's take a look at Nvidia. Alright, Nvidia looks like I over just my levels. Sorry, I haven't looked at Nvidia since this morning. Or Nvidia 1000 is the call wall. So Nvidia look like it was trying to get up there this morning. Let me turn off this absorption indicator. So we can just look at price action. So lots of liquidity, lots of sell orders here. At the 975 level. Looks like Nvidia did not quite make it up. Let's go take a look at at hero. So note, before we do that, the cumulative volume delta, starting around 1030 dropping. You can see the shift in the volume dots aggressive buyers on the way up, aggressive sellers on the way down shown by the large magenta value of volume dots. Alright, let's go to hero. Take a look at Nvidia. And this is I pointed this out many times. The Nvidia signal is often leading the or the identical almost to the mag seven. So Nvidia leads mag seven leads NASDAQ. Aggressive call buyers on the way up until 1030. Start selling calls. Start buying puts. Note the flow alert that came in just a few minutes after the cash open. So now blue line orange line moving the same direction. Price moves lower. Looks like they may be taking their foot off the gas a little bit. And Nvidia is consolidating. 845 is the put wall. Price is not down there yet 900 is the key gamestrike. Alright, let's take a look at the alerts. Alright, so this is the alert that just came in for IWM. And it looks like these alerts come off this list pretty quickly. So I'm looking at alerts just for the stocks on my watch list, which are shown here. Let's take a look at IWM. So this flow alert coming in signaling significant options activity. So it looks like there's some call buyers coming into IWM. I do not have IWM book in book map. Alright, does anyone have any stocks they want me to take a look at? Alright, so it looks like the hero signal for the SB500 may be turning higher. So now they've started buying calls and selling puts check mag seven. Alright, so as I mentioned before, looks like some consolidation here there. They've taken the foot off the gas. Now it looks like this price for QQQ is starting to rise. Alright, WRB wants to take a look at Tesla. Oh, Caesar wants to take a look at Broadcom. Let's take a look at that first. I do not have Broadcom in book map. We can take a look at hero. Alright, so it looks like Broadcom reverse lower. Right around the 1400 T gamma strike flow alert right at the open as traders were selling calls. They've been selling calls. That's really driving price. Notional value negative for the day. Also, they have been buying puts, but the call sellers have been driving price looks like the call sellers have taken the foot off the gas. Put buyers also have taken their foot off the gas. Now price is moving a little higher. Yes, Caesar says that's amazing. Almost no put activity. It seems this is a call driven market pretty much. Alright, WRB wants to take a look at Tesla. Let's go take a look at the total signal. Gonna jump. Jump back to Tesla. Little bit choppy hero signal, but definitely negative for the day. Options traders taking negative delta positions in Tesla and market makers take the opposite side and moving price lower. We can take a look at Tesla and book map. I do have that a book map. Let's go to Tesla. Note the high liquidity at 175. Looks like I need to adjust my lines for Tesla as well. My lines, I'm talking about these over here in the lines on the chart. I use an add on called price lines. I just will update my spreadsheet and it will show the lines in the current range. A lot of aggressive sellers in Tesla to date. Note all the today, note all the magenta volume dots. Nice pullbacks for shorts. Here to VWAP, the light blue line. Let's go back to hero. Alright, there's no no significance to the 175 level. 180 is the key gamma strike edge wall. That's 180 here. Alright, for the past week, I have shown the trading features in book map. And I have placed several trades. These trades were not meant to be representative of actual trades. I did those just to illustrate the trading features of the trade control panel. Here in book map. That was the entire purpose of those trades. I normally don't trade this time of day. Let's go back and take a look at take a look at Meta for example. In this part of the day, say 932, 930 to 12, I find a lot more clarity, both in the order flow. And in the hedging flow, let's go back to go back to hero. So that's when I trade Meta typical of the market straight up, straight down. Then this time of day, often the hero signal will start to flatten out. So a lot more clarity for me when the hero signal is definitely moving up or moving down. We'll go to the mag seven. So again, the trades that I put on the last week, simply meant to illustrate the trading features in book map and not actual trades that I would take. So I showed how to use the trading trade control panel for futures and for stocks. And let me just summarize real quickly. What you need to trade in book map it is a trading platform. First of all, you need book map global plus. There are two versions of book map that you can use for stocks and futures. Global and global plus if you want to trade within book map, you need global plus, you need to subscribe to data. I use rhythmic data for futures, DX feed data for stocks, I use the DX feed bundle. You also need a connection to a broker. Here I've got a trial for interactive brokers. I've also tried trade station, both for stocks, and then trade of eight is what I use for futures. In the trade control panel, you can just control various parameters, whether you want to trade on the chart. And let me start this. Whether you want to trade on the chart, the dome or both, I like to trade on the chart. And for futures, you can use the cross instrument trading feature. I've been showing how to use the ES chart to trade the micros. You can select the number of contracts, you can set up a bracket with take profit orders, and a stop loss order. And then once you place, place a trade and it's filled, you can adjust your stop and take profit levels on the chart. I'm gonna turn that off.  I want to thank you very much for watching. Thanks for your questions and comments. Next week, I think we have CPI data coming up. And I'll talk more about that on Monday. Alright, everyone, have a great weekend. And I will see you on Monday. Thanks again. Bye