The following is a presentation of TFNN. The morning markets kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good Wednesday morning everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien, company live from TFNN. Just after 9 a.m. Eastern time, we got markets accelerating higher. We might get an all-time high print in the next few moments. We got the S&Ps up by 20 points right now, trading at 49.94. That's a gain of about four tenths percent. You see the acceleration on a five-minute basis. The run begins at about 7.25 a.m. this morning, and since then, we're up about 25 points on the S&Ps approaching that 5,000-point mark. NASDAQ 100, we're up by about 95 points. That's about half a percent higher, trading at 17,000, 7.65 right now. You jump over the Dow, up by 80 points. I got to reset this. Anytime I hit the last, it thinks I'm trying to buy the thing or put in a bid. We have the Russell, up by six points this morning, up by two tenths percent. Little trading at 1967. You jump over to Bitcoin, just chopping around this week at about 43,000, 365. You jump over to the crew contract, positive by 57 pennies, 73.88. We jump over to the gold contract this morning, gold. Yeah, I got to reset that somehow, always popping up orders. Gold, up by a dollar right now, at 2,052, we're as low as 2,030 yesterday, talked about on the program yesterday, right, taking a look at the dollar index, taking a look at the gold. We got the biggest 10-year auction ever at 1 p.m. eastern time today. Interesting to see how that auction goes, how the demand goes for that auction, how that's going to impact possibly yields. We have FedSpeak going on today as well. We'll see how that impacts yields and as we know, yields drive the dollar, drive commodities to a certain degree at least. No Tim Bohns speaking of. Yeah, I got to fix that one, man, they keep popping up. The 10-year, negative by two takes this morning, we're dealing with a yield on the 10-year of about 4.11%. We were at about 4.15 yesterday. We were at 3.8% when this thing was at a high last week of 1.1306. So still, at above 4.1%, the yield on the 10-year, you get the 2-year, let's see where it is pulling up right now on the yield curve. I think we got the 2-year at about 4.16 or something like that. Where are we? Excuse me, 4.41. Yes, 4.41% the yield on the 2-year, yeah, 4.16, that would be basically the 10-year, that wouldn't make sense. 4.41 on the 2-year this morning and that is basically flat on the 2-year. And we jump over to the dollar index. As I mentioned, DXY, backing off a bit. So interesting to see, you know, when I was on the air from 9-10 folks, right, you had the dollar at 1.0440. And one of the things I was talking about was saying, man, dollar index has really accelerated higher. We had the gold contract chomping around. If you do get a potential pullback in that dollar index, look for potentially that you could get a lift in that gold contract. We get off the air at 10 o'clock, you're 2056. Interesting though, right? We were right back to where we were at 7.30 this morning. The point being that even as we continue to see the dollar behaving, it seems like the dollar right now, to put this thing on a daily basis before we jump around to some of the news of the day. And boy, we got a lot of headlines, man. Almost right at that one, excuse me, 618 retracement, 104.73 and we might have a little bit of a rollover, man. Now, what would that mean? That would mean a weaker dollar, which should be happening at the same time as you get decreasing yields. And maybe that was your acceleration, right? Maybe that was your market getting ahead of itself as in the dollar trades from 107 down to 101. You push back almost to a high of 104.60 and that gives you the impetus maybe to make that run eventually lower. And that is from what? About six weeks. December 28th. We're down there in the dollar at a 100 handle. We just almost got to 104.60 and we're backing off a bit. We're right at 104 on the dollar. All right, we got a lot to talk about. Where do we kick things off? Let's jump to the headlines and see. Let's kick it off with Disney. Why not? Interesting action in terms of how the whole spectrum of streaming for sports is going to change. Many investors search for clarity on elusive streaming profits. All right, now they report on Wednesday. But how about the deal out there? They're teaming up with Fox. They're teaming up with Warner Brothers. You got Fox and Warner Brothers trading higher this morning. That's Max. WDD. Yeah. So here's Warner Brothers Discovery. There's your acceleration yesterday on the news they're teaming up with Disney and Fox. There's Disney. Actually trades lower on that news from 99.75 down to 98. He had a little bit of premium in here that they were just going to unload ESPN, right? You always hear that talked about maybe Apple would be the buyer of Dan Ives that been out there pushing that for a while. Makes a lot of sense, but doesn't seem like that's what's coming down the line right now. They're teaming up with Fox. They're teaming up with Warner. And it'd be interesting to see how the details of this come out.  We got this great service for you. We're going to bundle all these different channels that you're going to love and we're going to charge you one elevated fee for all of it. We'll call it cable to something to that degree. But nonetheless, things are changing.  You're the NBA, the NHL, even the NFL. Probably don't want to see all those competitors. There were at one point competing for those rights. Teaming up together going to be less competition. You still got plenty of participants out there. Apple, Amazon, Netflix, accordingly. But nonetheless, Disney, Fox and Warner Brothers, we'll see what they're going to charge for that. We'll see how it's going to come down the line. But nonetheless, Disney actually lower on that. You got Warner Brothers trading higher. And yeah, Warner Brothers, man, if you haven't tried Max yet, folks, it's pretty cool what they're putting together. So I cut the cord, do not have cable at home. We got about every streaming service that you can have. I mean, let me think about we got Max, we got Netflix. We have Prime, of course. We have Disney, of course, any others. I subscribed to Peacock for a month in order to get the playoff game that was on there recently. And so when it came time for New Year's Eve, right? I said to myself, you know, and this is where you're still learning about what's going on. I said, well, I wonder what's what I can get. Maybe I said, maybe Max, because HBO does do some live stuff. I know they do. I said, maybe Max. I watched Real Time with Bill Maher, Maher on there. And that's live. There's some stuff that they are on live. I said, maybe Max got something going on, right? Well, of course they do because that's CNN. And they had Anderson Cooper and Andy Cohn on their live for New Year's Eve. And then they have a bunch of sporting on there. They have CNN for live news. And I found myself saying I actually understood for the first time why Max got away from the HBO name because it is so much more inclusive of a number of different aspects. I think that stocks got a lot of potential in the future, man. And you're seeing a rise of what? Almost two and a half percent this morning up to $10 and 32 cents. They're going to deal with ESPN and with Fox and boy, that's going to control a lot of the sports spectrum out there. You're still going to have Peacock, but that's like five bucks a month. And maybe some other as I was listening to Bloomberg, they were doing some great discussions on this morning. This is going to be an expensive service, though. All right, we'll see if you get it. If you get HBO, there's still a lot of details to come out on this. We don't know what the price is going to be, etc. But nonetheless, interesting how it does change things going forward. So we have this market pushing higher. S&Ps up by 20 right now, Nasdaq 100 up by an even hundred on the open. Let's see how some of those fang stocks are kicking things off. You jump over to Apple shares. Fang, that's an old term, right? That's dating me. Imagine that you say the fang stocks and you date yourself at this point, folks. Apple up a dollar 20, not bad. You jump over to Microsoft shares up about two dollars. You jump over to Nvidia shares, basically flat at 682. And we got some Tesla news. Looks like they're going to be cutting jobs, man. Stay tuned, folks. We're coming back with Takenormand Kevin Hinks from the Schwab Network Fast Market. We'll be right back in three minutes. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities & Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities & Options Report today with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. For all the details and to start your subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com, TFNN Educating Investors. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at TFNN.com. When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from Veteran Day Trader Larry Pesavento on stocks you need to pay attention to. And you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years' experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos, and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today. TFNN.com, educating investors. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com. And he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge every day in his Mastering Probability newsletter. Steve's award-winning newsletter, Mastering Probability, is delivered every trading day with updates throughout the afternoon. Sign up for Steve's market newsletter, Mastering Probability, and you'll receive access to seven of Steve's educational webinars absolutely free. At TFNN, all our newsletters come with a 30-day money-back guarantee, so you have absolutely nothing to worry about. Visit TFNN.com and try Mastering Probability 30 days risk-free today. TFNN, educating investors. Folks, we've got S&P Futures right now up more than 20 points. We're within about two points of all-time highs. We're trading at $49.95. We've got the Nasdaq 100 up about 100 points right now to talk about some of the market action this morning. Let's jump over to our man, Kevin Hinks. Every trading day, folks, 12 noon Eastern time. Right here from the Schwab network, you've got fast market. With your host, Kevin Hinks, Tom White, the whole team. Man, we got FedSpeak out there. We got earnings going on, and we got markets within a hair of all-time highs this morning. Kevin Hinks, good morning. Good morning, Tommy O'Brien. Yeah, we're going to knock on the door of $5,000 today. It looks like that's for sure. I don't know if we'll get through it or we'll close through it, but we're certainly going to take a run at it today. And frankly, Tommy, in terms of top-tier economic data, not much is getting away from this market this week. Most of the earnings has been relatively good, not snap, but Chipotle's having a good morning. Some of the bank worries from New York Community Bank, they pointed to new executive chairman. So that stock is up pre-market. I'm so sorry, some of that risk dissipating. But not a lot is getting away here, Tommy. So until we get some top-tier economic data or some earnings, we'll have some good earnings after the bell. Disney, PayPal, arm holdings are some of the names coming out with the earnings after the bell today. Those will be something to look at. But a couple of bond auctions, a 10-year vote. $42 billion in 10-year notes auction today. That'll come out around noon. $25 billion in 30-year bonds auction tomorrow. So there's that. But all things hit still, a lot of Fed speakers. One, two, three, four Fed speakers today. Neil Kashkari's already been outfucking on national TV this morning. So here we are, Tommy, working through a little chasm in terms of economic data. And the market seems to want to go higher. It's a great summation, man. I appreciate the roundup and taking a look at things. You beat me to the question in terms of Kashkari, Fed speak maybe, because I'm always trying to get your opinion on what's going on right now. And as you mentioned, a little bit of a vacuum, especially in terms of how much data we got last week, man. When you had Fed week, you had Jobs Friday. We had the biggest tech companies in the world, pretty much crushing it. And then a little bit of a lull. Where are you looking out to right now, Kevin? You made the great point. That's what I was going to ask you. What is on the calendar right now in terms of what can really maybe not surprise or drive this market or news? We're getting Fed speak. That's one of them. Kashkari talking about maybe two to three cuts, maybe a few more months of data as some of the headlines out there to give us the confidence or trying to put maybe frame where they're going to get that confidence from. But are you looking for anything, Kevin? We get the next meeting March 20th. That's a while away, man. Are we going to wait for the February data? How do you think about that right now as we go through this period? Well, you've got NVIDIA's earnings coming up here on the 21st. Normally, when you have a week of very no real top tier economic data, it usually leads to the next week being very heavy in terms of economic data. So there'll be economic data next week. You still got NVIDIA's earnings the last. And that stock has run since, boy, the last month. Sorry, there, Kevin. Hey, Louis, we might have lost you, Kevin. Maybe he's there. All right, if my producer can let me know. Yeah, check out that run for NVIDIA. This thing just doesn't stop, man. Maybe he's still there. I'm here. All right, perfect. Sorry, we lost you for a moment there, Kevin. I have NVIDIA, the run it's made from 400 to 700 over the last three months. Could you give us a little teaser on Disney, man? Some pretty big news last night on Disney, of course. They're teaming up with Warner. They're teaming up with Fox. That's where sports are going to go for right now. This stock, though, Disney trades lower. Even on that news, man. Talk about very difficult to find a bid for that equity recently off the lows of 78, but underperforming as we know. What are you looking for with Disney, man, as they're going to be coming out with their numbers on the heels of that big announcement? Down over a dollar pre-market on that news. Listen, these companies involved in streaming and all things, you know, linear TV, they have to figure this out. Because NVIDIA got the right, or I'm sorry, not NVIDIA, Netflix has the right, you know, they have the right business model. And just like, you know, we're going to see play out in AI. There's going to be winners and losers. There's going to be competition. There was a cautionary note yesterday out on NVIDIA talking about all the things, all the problems that could come up. So I think Disney is still in the process of trying to figure out exactly what, how they manage this just empty hole of money that is going into streaming, Tommy. Yeah, it's going to be interesting to see as we start to maybe get maybe a few more details tonight about that deal. And maybe the market, not a little disappointed almost that they just didn't unload that property to Apple or something like that. I'm not sure, but like you said, trading down about a buck 30 on that thinkorswim platform. You mentioned it, Kevin, but if you could go over it again, the stocks you're talking about Disney may be one of them, but do you guys have three equities coming up as usual on fast market today at 12? Like I said, it was going to be covering Disney today. We'll trade it in a middle second. We'll also look at Apple post earnings and what it's doing firming up here now in the market. And then we'll look at Apple that also has coming out. So three good names, Apple, Disney and PayPal today. I'm always interested in that payment sector, man. PayPal talking around, jumping around at 63.71. And I got it at 3.10 a few years ago, remarkable. Kevin, I appreciate the time on a busy morning, man. We'll be watching fast market at 12 today and I look forward to talking to you tomorrow as usual. Thanks for having me on, Tommy. Always a pleasure folks, check it out. You heard it, they're talking three great stocks. Apple, Disney, PayPal coming up at 12 o'clock today. They'll be setting up those trades. And yeah, pretty interesting to see how that goes out. Disney, you make that deal, you trade lower, man. Very difficult to find a bid across the board. So, Igor, not willing to give up that asset, right? Not willing to give it up to Apple probably just yet. Trying to do another deal that keeps it in the fold for right now, but the market says, we're down by $2 almost from where you were initially on that news, 9805 for Disney shares this morning. As opposed to, as I mentioned, you got Warner Brothers, you got Fox, both trade and hire Warner Brothers up to 10.55 actually last night, back to 10.29 this morning. You jump over, they'll be covering Apple as well. Apple up about a buck 30, this market, man. As Kevin said, we're knocking on the doorman. We're probably gonna knock on that door 5,000. Do we get through it? We get to find out when supply equals demand on the opening bell in about four minutes from right now, but you got the S&Ps, 49.96 folks within less than two points of all-time highs. And as I mentioned, so Tesla, fine, getting a little bit of a pop. Be careful on Tesla folks. I keep talking about it, okay? Be careful for Tesla is what I would say. The cuts are coming for sure. They got a massive demand problem here. And they are now asking which jobs are critical. Of course they're coming, okay? Managers have been queried on whether positions are needed. Sales growth slows as car market spends towards next growth wave. There's a lot going on in that company, man. And then the headline out here, this is almost like a troll from Bloomberg as we come into the open. I don't know what their market is supposed to be doing in Korea, but they sold one car. There is one Korean or one person living in Korea that bought a Tesla in the month of January. One, one single model. EV sales are hurt by inflation and that number's down to one in Korea. Nonetheless, anecdotal. But the cuts are coming for Tesla. They'll be saving some money, markets are up. We're ready to record highs. We're coming back on the open folks, stay tuned. Are you ready to take charge of your financial future? TFNN is your gateway to the world of trading and investing. Whether you're starting out or scaling up, TFNN empowers traders and investors of all skill levels with top-notch investing systems, strategies, and techniques. It's time to protect and grow your money with insight you can trust. Join us live Monday through Friday during market hours for exclusive content that moves with the markets. At TFNN, we bring the trading floor to you. Our seasoned hosts are here to answer your calls and questions live on the air. Check out the Tiger's Den for just $1 and follow us on YouTube and become part of our vibrant community. And remember, at TFNN, we're so confident in the value we provide that we are for a 30-day money-back guarantee on all new premium newsletter subscriptions and services. You have absolutely nothing to risk. So why wait? Tune in live to Tiger TV and transform your trading journey because when you know better, you invest better. Join us and experience the difference today. TFNN, educating investors. Currencies, commodities, and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity markets across the globe, which is why it's a great time to try out Teddy Kegstad's Tiger Forex Report. Teddy Kegstad breaks down the Forex markets every Monday using his 30-plus years of experience as a trading veteran of futures, forex, stocks, and options. Teddy releases his weekly Tiger Forex Report every Monday morning with coverage of all the major currency pairs, including the dollar index, the euro-dollar, pound-dollar, dollar-swiss, dollar-yen, as well as many more, and he also has weekly coverage of the crude oil market and the 30-year T-bonds as they both influence forex markets tremendously. When you sign up for the Tiger Forex Report, you also gain instant access to Teddy's 60-minute webinar archive he just hosted, forex strategies, and fundamentals, what is behind the Tiger Forex Report. For all the details and to start your 30-day Tiger Forex Report subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN Educating Investors. Are you ready to take your trading to the next level? Introducing Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter, Market Insights, your key to successful active trading. Tom O'Brien, renowned for his expertise in the financial markets, has designed Market Insights to be your daily guide to profitable trades. Tom publishes his daily Market Insights newsletter every market day before the market open, along with updates when warranted. Stay ahead of the game with Tom's real-time analysis and trade recommendations delivered straight to your inbox.  Ready to join the ranks of successful traders? Head over to TFNN.com and subscribe to Market Insights today. Don't miss out on this opportunity to supercharge your trading results. Market Insights comes with a 30-day money-back guarantee for all new subscribers, so you have nothing to risk. Don't miss out on this opportunity to revolutionize your trading game. Head over to TFNN.com right now to join the thousands of traders who have already experienced the power of Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter Market Insights firsthand. TFNN, educating investors. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. Welcome back, folks. We got markets open. We have the S&Ps. Futures just hit an all-time high, 49.98. We were in the 49.97 something range in terms of the highs prior. We're just at that level right now. Nasdaq 100, we're up 103 points. Making 105, 17,000, 779s. An all-time high, I think it might be. 793.50. Okay, 793, 17,793. So within about 30 points in the Nasdaq 100, you jump over the Dow. Those highs just under 39,000. Russell, as we know, well off that price level right now. Look at that, right? The Russell is 25% away from its all-time highs, man. Remarkable. S&Ps right at that level right now. All right, we got a lot to jump through here. And we got our Man-Teddy Cakes at coming up the next segment as well. Great day to have him on. We're gonna talk some rates. We're gonna talk some Forex. As we always do, we'll talk a little bit of crude. Some gold as well. So that's coming up the next segment. But yeah, let's jump around to some of the headlines, man. And we got plenty this morning. Kevin referenced it. Neil Kashkari, so the Minneapolis Federal Reserve President, said today that he expects the central bank to cut rates only a few times this year, okay? Sitting here today, I would say two or three cuts would seem appropriate for me right now. But again, I don't wanna prejudge things, but that's my gut based on the data we have so far. We just need to look at the actual inflation data to guide us. So far, the data has been resoundingly positive. I hope it continues. And then the question will simply be at what pace do we then start to adjust rates back down, right? There are compelling arguments to suggest, to suggest we could be in a longer, higher rate environment going forward. That's the part I really wanted to get to. Quite a strong statement from a Fed president. Keep that one at least as a risk in some degree out there. If that's the case, then yes, we may get some cuts, but you got a tenure right now at 4.1%. If we are in a higher for longer environment going forward, where does that 10 end up? And if that 10 doesn't end up dramatically lower, how much does the Fed really have to cut? In this existence that we had for 20 plus years where we were near a 0% interest rate and we weren't quite there, okay? But we were lower than we should have been for the economic growth that we experienced during that time, we were lower than we should have been. And I feel like that is resetting to a certain degree. So pay attention to that quote in most particular fashion. Compelling arguments to suggest that we could be in a longer, higher rate environment going forward and he's looking for two to three rate cuts. Folks, two to three, three only brings you down to 4.5 to 4.75. Yeah, okay, yeah. And we got the two year right now at 4.4. So if you're getting two to three cuts this year, the two should be dramatically higher than 4.4. If even after one year we're still sitting at 4.7, because that means over two years you should average 4.4, right? Nonetheless, you get the point, he's out there speaking, we get more speak as well. And yeah, we talked about Tesla, the one part I wanted to get to in this chart, I mean, they put it right up on the front page of Bloomberg, I think. Let's see, do they? I think they did.  You talk about a slowdown, man, okay? This is revenue change percentage-wise, okay? So if you're just at zero, your revenue is staying the same, okay? So this is not a decline or something like that. This is revenue change. Year over year, but folks, you were rising in revenue. This isn't going back to like 1995. This isn't going back to year 2000. This is the beginning of 2021. 75% growth, 97, 58, 71. This is Tesla, 87, okay? And then what happens? Do you remember at the beginning of 2022, when Elon was blaming everything on higher rates? Okay, well, guess what? That's when we dipped to 43% growth in second quarter of 2022.  Be careful with Tesla, folks. I would not be owning Tesla right now, even at these share prices, and doesn't mean the thing can't come back to highs, okay? And I got no problem with Elon and investing in some of his equities at some degree, but the risk is too high right now with everything going on with Tesla. Yes, you're gonna get some volatile moves. So I understand if you take that risk, you might get rewarded. That's a fair assessment. But boy, be careful, folks, out there. For Tesla, they're gonna be making layoffs and that's not gonna solve their problem. And look at this market. Oh, let's put it back to a 15 minute. Did we get it? No, we didn't get 5,000 yet, 49, 99, 25. All right, we jump around. Some of the equities with numbers. Overshares, they were higher, not so fast. They dipped a little lower, they're down by 2%, but boy, this thing has had quite a run recently. You back it up on the daily, right? You were just trading at a price point of $40 on October 26th, then you just hit 70. That's a 75% acceleration from the lows in October. We jump over to Uber earnings and they had strong earnings. Yeah, they beat estimates as revenue and booking see double digit growth, revenue for the quarter up 15% from the same period a year ago, almost $10 billion. They marked a year of sustainable, profitable growth for Uber as consumer spending continues to shift from retail to services is the number out there. Net income, $1.4 billion on that 10 billion that they took in, but the market's looking for a little bit more, right? They're up 75% from where they were October 26 folks. For the first quarter of this year, gross bookings, $37 to $38.5 billion. The estimate was $37.4, so the median, the middle of that range is gonna be above there. Anticipates EBITDA 1.26 to 1.34. The market was looking for the bottom sector of that. Active platform consumers reached 150 million in the fourth quarter. It was 131 a year earlier. Mobility, that's gross bookings, 19.3 billion. Delivery 17, just remarkable, man. But guess what? A simple case of expectation, sky high, they pull back a bit, not really a stratospheric beat and the equity is up 75% from where it was trading at just over three months ago. All right, what else we got? Yeah, how about Target? This one's interesting, man. I don't blame them for wanting to be in the next Amazon. The retail is looking for ways to reverse sales declines. A new offering can incorporate shipped. It's delivery business. So they're gonna offer a paid membership program. Probably about time, right? You got Walmart Plus, you got Amazon Prime, Target, not exactly those companies, okay, but probably large enough to have something to the degree and boy, they got a great brand. So it'd be interesting to see what they can put together here. You jump over to Target shares. They're up by 2.2%. On that news, trading at 147.63, but yeah, as we mentioned, man, quite a different story compared to the Walmart's and the Amazon's off the highs as well. But this thing's still almost cut in half from where you were trading back in the end of 2021 at $268.98. You compare that to a company like Walmart, very successful as consumers, you've heard Walmart talk about it, right? A different echelon, even on the income spectrum in terms of shopping at Walmart, higher income earners shopping at Walmart, everybody's looking to save in this economy, Target, different story, man, you jump over to Amazon shares, 169.97, up about half a percent, still about 18 bucks off all time highs, but we're in that range for Amazon shares, in that range. Let's see how Tesla's trading.  That was a short-lived experience, negative prices for Warner Brothers Discovery, the market a little bit worried about that partnership, it seems. Nasdaq, up about a half a percent, we got markets reaching records, S&Ps within 1.00 to 5,000, we're gonna be talking some forex with our man, Teddy Kegstad, when we come back, folks, don't miss it. We'll be right back in three minutes. Are you ready to take charge of your financial future? TFNN is your gateway to the world of trading and investing. Whether you're starting out or scaling up, TFNN empowers traders and investors of all skill levels with top-notch investing systems, strategies, and techniques. It's time to protect and grow your money with insight you can trust. Join us live Monday through Friday during market hours for exclusive content that moves with the markets. At TFNN, we bring the trading floor to you. Our seasoned hosts are here to answer your calls and questions live on the air. Check out the Tiger's Den for just $1 and follow us on YouTube and become part of our vibrant community. And remember, at TFNN, we're so confident in the value we provide that we offer a 30-day money-back guarantee on all new premium newsletter subscriptions and services. You have absolutely nothing to risk, so why wait? Tune in live to Tiger TV and transform your trading journey because when you know better, you invest better. Join us and experience the difference today. TFNN, educating investors. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks, and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at TFNN.com. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices.  First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know, and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. TFNN.com, educating investors. Will the S&P 500 continue to climb for bold trades on U.S. large-cap stocks in either direction, trade SPXL, SPUU, or SPXS, directions daily, S&P 500, bull and bear, leveraged ETFs, direction leveraged ETFs. An investor should carefully consider a fund's investment objective, risks, charges, and expenses before investing. A fund's prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares. To obtain a fund's prospectus and summary prospectus, call<PHONE_NUMBER> or visit Direction Investments.com. A fund's prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing. An investment in the funds is subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor, Four-Side Fund Services, LLC. This program is brought to you by Vista Gold, traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. We have the S&P pulling it back a bit as we almost touched that 5,000 price point we're trading right now at 49.94. You're still positive by about 20 points or about four-tenths percent. And as we do each Wednesday at 40 past the hour, folks, let's jump over to our man, Teddy Kegstad. Folks, you can check out Teddy's outstanding Tiger Forex report right under the newsletter tab. You'll see it there. You can subscribe for $97 a month, folks. Comes out every Monday. Updates throughout the week when warranted. Comes with a 30-day money-back guarantee. And boy, there's so much going on in terms of forex, yields, driving the dollar, driving commodities, and we got some action. Teddy Kegstad, good morning. Good morning, Tommy. Boy, amazing the moves we've had since a week ago on Wednesday. Yields back about 4%, man. The whole conversation seems like it shifted a bit. Pretty remarkable.  When you think about how things reverberate on a weekly basis, where do you want to kick things off, man? Quite a week since we talked to you seven days ago. Yeah, well, we had a nice reaction. I think pretty much what we talked about last week, we prepared ourselves quite well for that. So we rode that kind of wave. Not pretty nice, I think, going into the end of the week last week. And I like to speak that's kind of coming out and starting to hit the tone like I've been saying for over a month and a half that the media is getting way too ahead of itself as far as when a rate cut is going to come in. And also if three quarters is all they're gonna cut over the course of a year or whatever it is, the market's already factored in how much of that, which we've been talking about for a long time. So this limbo period with rates, I think is gonna be something we have to live with for a while, especially over the next couple of months. There's still some numbers you have to watch out when it comes to the FX markets. This week there's nothing for the dollar coming out anymore really except for unemployment claims tomorrow, which the way interest rates reacted on Friday, that was, I mean, look at how they acted off the Fed and then unemployment's what really set yields off because they don't like this with the wage growth and job growth and stuff like that. So if unemployment claims come out shorter, if they start to keep tracking in that direction, like it seems like that's gonna be that way, I'd be careful to watch the interest rates catching a bid as far as in pricing going up. Granted, we have the auctions the next couple of days, you can expect some kind of goofy volatility, especially in the afternoons. So I'd be careful with that. If I was just on the bond futures and 10 year futures, if you're trading those, I'd be very cautious the next couple of days. I'd probably wait it out until after Thursday's number because you're gonna probably get some erroneous spikes if anything off the auction. I don't think you're gonna get a solid trend because if anything, what's the auction gonna do? Do you think the auction's gonna start a trend? No, it's not gonna do that. It's gonna set the algos on fire. It's gonna be a matter of how much liquidity comes in, how much buying and really interest is there going to be. So and I wouldn't wanna try and play that game. Right now, I think that you're having, you hit a nice low in the dollar a couple of days ago. We had downside targets for the Euro US dollar and the pound and some other currencies and those hit nice areas just like the dollar index did as far as the upside. So I think that we're coming off a nice correction zone and I think that over the next couple of days into next week, you'll probably see dollar under pressure but I wouldn't get overzealous with anything when it comes to as far as how much the dollar is going to move. I would just be right now, sell rallies in the dollar right now by dips and the other currencies. I could see the Euro US dollar and the pound dollar getting a nice little lift. The yen, they had a nice outside day yesterday but all it's doing is targeting them back into the center of the range they've been in for the last month. So do I see the yen, US dollar yen going down? Yeah, on an intraday basis probably into Friday but I would use caution. I don't think you're gonna get a big move. Nice, that was a nice little wrap up man. I was jumping through some of those charts as you were doing it and yeah, pretty cool to see some of those inflection points and you've had some great calls man as things have played out and I wanted to ask you about kind of one of the points you made in terms of some of those rates of course already into the market. We get the 10 year rate at about 4.1 today whereas low was almost 3.8 last week, a little bit of a reverberation. And one of the things you had Kashkari out here saying today is that we might be in a period of higher for longer going forward to some degree and I found myself saying well if we're higher for longer and we're sitting at 4.1 right now, where does that 10 end up at some degree? Do you have any thoughts on that? And it kind of speaks to what you were talking about but I was just wondering how you take something like that, how you think about it and then you look, you mentioned the 10 year, the futures, et cetera going out even a little bit longer than maybe a couple of days. Where do you try and think about that one as we go out maybe months as we do start getting some of those cuts because you make the great point man if there's only three cuts and the feds at 5.5 right now and the 10 years at 4.1, there's a lot of that already factored in and so are we gonna be around 4% on the 10 year? Do you think about that?  Oh absolutely, absolutely. And I think I heard you talking earlier and that does go in line with what I think. And remember last week I was also telling you how the short turns are really driving the yields right now and that's kind of where we're at. The 30 year obviously holds rates in the long term and with this where we're at we know that okay even if they were to, let's say hike, they're not doing more than a quarter point you know what I mean? Like let's say all of a sudden inflation starts to kick up and then they would be on okay we're gonna do a quarter, we're gonna pause and we're gonna probably lean towards cutting again. So we know that the hawkishness is pretty much off the table but not gone. But also as far as dovishness how much do you get? I mean three quarters of a point over a course of a year remember when they first started raising interest rates? I mean they did over a point and a half in how short of a time? Let alone a half a point or a point. So now you're looking at 12 months for three quarters of a point which the market's already factored in. So I think that the short terms like the two, the five and the 10 are gonna still push that boundary especially the tenure like you said into that area I like that as a target range for sure. But once you get to that area I'd be careful because that's when you're gonna see the swing where the 30 year is gonna catch up with the short terms and start to push highs. And when it starts to get stretchy and starts really spiking the short terms are not gonna spike anymore cause they're done. And once those start to turn cause the short terms obviously drive rates in the short term, long term overall. So the trend first shifts with the short terms. The only time it shifts with the long term first is when you have major monumental events. If all of a sudden we go to like the US troops go into war like with Taiwan I would think that the 30 year is gonna catch a bid at least in the short run. It doesn't matter what's going on in the economy. You know what I mean? So that would be a situation where the 30 year would override the short runs. Because that's just flight to quality. It's just what you do is how things can happen. But yeah, I like what you're saying and I think that that's the tone people really need to keep in perspective is don't expect much out of the interest rate market. It's pretty much done. I mean, we know that as far as going up, that's over. Going down, there's not much to go. Now unless we have something where let's say all of a sudden unemployment sky rocks. Let's say we go all of a sudden to 6% unemployment and have a huge deflationary environment that somehow just, I don't know, comes out of nowhere. Maybe Santa Claus all of a sudden drops off all this stuff at every Walmart or something. I don't know. I don't know what concern anything can use. We all know these things come out of nowhere these days for sure, go ahead, yeah. Right, but let's say that does occur. Okay, then you're looking at that situation where you could see a big easing bias. But like I said, I can't go far into fan. I have to go into fantasy land to try and find those opinions and objectives. So I just don't want to throw those out there. I mean, anything can happen. We know that. You're more likely going to have an elbow spike that happens because of an error in technology to get to those levels for a brief time than you are because of a trend, I think. I appreciate the take, man. It makes a lot of sense. It does. Can you hang with us for the break? Maybe we'll talk a little bit accrued if we can to finish it up after the break. I could do one last segment, yes, sir. Okay, perfect. We'll be right back, folks. We'll talk a little bit accrued. We'll finish up with our man, Teddy Kegstad. We'll be right back. We've got markets in positive territory. We're right near our all-time highs. Stay tuned with us. Teddy and I will be right back, folks. The Gold Report. As a precious metal, gold is still king. It continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market, the US futures market, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The Gold Report. Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly Gold Report every Monday morning for subscribers, consisting of coverage of the XAU, HUI, GDX, the Dollar, Bonds, the South African Rand, as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy-sell recommendations. The Gold Report. New subscribers get a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. Subscribe to Tom O'Brien's Gold Report newsletter now at TFNN.com. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks, and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at TFNN.com. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices.  First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. TFNN.com, educating investors. The reality is that navigating financial markets can be risky. Markets can be chaotic and difficult to understand. Having the latest market advice can help you turn this chaos into a key for creating winning trades. At TFNN, we understand that it can be hard to find reliable market news. That's why each of our market experts offers their very own market newsletter. A must-have tool for every trader out there striving to find an edge in today's markets, TFNN newsletters cover every aspect of the markets so you can analyze the market before you trade. Try any of our great newsletters risk-free with our 30-day money-back guarantee. Just visit the Newsletters tab on the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN, educating investors. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. We have the S&Ps up by 18 points, trading at 49.92. We almost made it to 5,000. We're back a bit. We're talking to our man, Teddy Kegstad. We're talking a little bit of Forex and I wanted to get your take on crude. Teddy, quite the pullback, of course, last week to this Monday, $71.00. We had been talking about maybe the highs, some great action there in our conversation. We're back to $73.00 in change. What do you think about that crude market? We can definitely talk about crude, especially the Tiger Forex report readers. We had that sell signal a couple of weeks ago that played into our hand into Friday's low. We got the little test of it on Monday. We peaked a little bit lower, a couple ticks and then reversed and had basically an unchanged day. That was a nice little high probable catch. Japanese candlestick turning point, meaning that probably that swing low is pretty solid for at least a few sessions, I would think. I would watch out. Now, today's critical. Let's say we close where we're at right now.  If we reverse gears tomorrow and sell off in the crude market, I would be very cautious that we could probably take out the lows from this week. That means that we're gonna probably get bearish and try and get back down towards that probably 70 to 68 area. Now, in the opposite, if we hold up today, like let's say we settle where we're at today and then all of a sudden we catch a rally and settle, definitely positive tomorrow. Well, then we're in the heart of the range we've been in for the past couple of months. It's gonna be a $75 treading around there, poking around $76, $77 back to $75. You really have to take out that high from a couple of weeks ago at around 79, I think it was around 79, 78 half. If you do that, then I can see it's going up to that 81 to $84 range. But the oil market seemed pretty tame. I mean, geopolitical stuff hasn't seemed to shake the boat too much. It's helping them hold us in a range. I just don't see us to have any really big bullish reason to take off right now. Now, especially with yields, if yields also keep on retracting, if they keep the least sideways to lower, then it's gonna be hard for crude to catch a bid too, because if the dollars on the pressure and yields are under pressure, cost of carry goes down for crude that helps to suppress prices, and also demand level changes as well. So I think that we're stuck in a wide range trade. I'd be cautious, watch those levels. We take out the low from Monday, look out below. And if we get a positive close today and especially tomorrow, we could push a bid. We gotta run, Teddy. Bye.


Today's guest is Paul Orlando, who's going to talk a little bit about how we can measure the value of a new member. So we all have email forms on our websites. We all are desperately trying to bring in new donors. But sometimes the question is, should I be investing in that? What is the value of that new member? How much would it cost me to get them? And how would I calculate their member lifetime value so I actually know what I could invest in bringing in new people? So Paul Orlando builds internal incubator and accelerator programs around the world, getting organizations to solve problems that they couldn't in other ways. He unlocks new revenue and partnership opportunities for large organizations. And his programs build autonomy and skills that keep employee retention high in an era when nonprofits and everyone else really need to maintain their top talent, because everyone right now is looking for new opportunities. So with that, I'm going to pass the mic over to Paul. I have to say, before I begin, that I approach this talk with a little trepidation, because I'm not really a nonprofit career person. My experience is, at least as pertains to unit economics, it's really mostly on the more tech startup side. However, I think the math works out. Some of the numbers and inputs will be a little different. What you value might be a little different. But the math should work out. So today, I'm going to present some ways of thinking about unit economics. I would really love to hear from you and have that conversation be guided by some of your questions or what you're dealing with. But I'll do an introduction to this topic with some examples. And then I would love to hear what you are dealing with this question of what a member is worth or your own unit economics or customer acquisition or lifetime value, things like that. And we can have a more fluid discussion. So thank you for the nice introduction, Eli. The couple of things I'll maybe point out before we do jump in, and I'll get my screen set up here, is that I've spent the last 10 years or so in this entrepreneurial world in a number of ways. Started off, really, I founded a startup that was based around connecting patients that were going through serious health recoveries, connecting them with each other, and having that what was really a talk, like a vocal talk, be part of that recovery process. And we worked with doctors, with support group leaders, part of that recovery. A lot of what I ended up learning or teaching came from my experience learning things the hard way back then. And then, as Eli said, a little more recent experience is in running startup incubator or accelerator programs. I've done this a few times, different parts of the world. And right now, I am running two different programs. One is a community health incubator. So even though this is what you might think of as, say, social impact, these are for-profit businesses. But this is for a large nonprofit in the US called Volunteers America, looking at problem areas that are centered around affordable housing, addiction treatment, PTSD treatment, and going into communities around the world where this nonprofit has local presence. And then I also run the incubator at the University of Southern California in Los Angeles. Very broad array business types there. It is mostly technology. The other, say, 80%, the other 20% are a mix of what you might call more traditional, small businesses, CPG companies, things like that. And I suppose the way I ended up speaking more often about this economics topic is in the early part of the pandemic, when everything was going virtual, I realized that the way I usually would work with companies on these questions stopped working.  And so I ended up taking some time and writing out a lot of what I had learned and different models for figuring out you in economics based on type of business. And so I wrote this short, useful book, I think called Growth Units. But let's go into a first example. And I wanna do a little, if we can, I wanna ask some questions of all of you. So I'm gonna give you an example of a company, very Silicon Valley style company a number of years ago that was doing delivery of bento boxes. So lunch, we'll call it to simplify it. They did delivery of these bento boxes. And I always like sharing real data, real information. So here is a public slide of the founder of this business that had raised some money and they're doing delivery. And he's sharing their July, 2015 numbers over here. And then also how things had changed a little more than a year later. So take a look at this. And I'm curious as to whether you're good or bad. Any comments on how you think the business is doing, anything surprising? Oh, I see, I should be looking at the chat actually, asking these questions. Great, okay. So how do they completely annihilate waste? Yeah, maybe it's a little scary. Maybe you want a little waste in a food business, right? It's a little scary if there's zero waste. Okay, good point. And the margin increased significantly. Yeah, that's definitely a dramatic change. They went from, if you look over here, significantly negative to, oh, okay, maybe that's not bad. Maybe it's not bad. So you can look at actual results of a company like this and you might say, hey, they figured things out. This business went from losing money every time they signed up a new customer to making $2.57, every time they're shipping a box, it sounds like this is the things are going great. And the reality is, so this is October, 2016, we're seeing here, the reality is, wow, December 9th.  They ran out of time. Maybe they had figured things out but they had already blown through all the money they raised, all of the budget. And I'm sure there are other things that are not shared publicly but my concern when I deal with businesses and in economics is not only that you get the math but that you also don't run out of time. And I treat every business as there's a bit of a race and we're every nonprofit and it's a bit of a race. You have the goals that you're trying to achieve. How do you make sure that you don't run out of time? You're gonna have to learn along the way but if you're struggling against we need to make payroll, we are improving margin every month but it's not enough, the payroll has, we can't actually meet it. That's what I struggle against often when I deal with businesses that are going through this learning period. Let's literally talk about the definition of two terms that you'll hear in economics, lifetime value and customer acquisition cost. So, LTV, this is a measure of the gross profit an organization earns over its relationship with a customer. When I use the term customer here, I know we might have different definitions of this in a nonprofit sense, how do you think of who your customers are? What's the way you think of that? Or if you were gonna, you might not call them customers but exactly donors or it could be members. You have people who might pay a membership fee and they wanna be a part of something or they get special access to something and they might pay a fee. You might have donors who they could be corporate entities that could become or they could be individuals who are wealthier, they wanna support your work or other terms, supporters, there's different tiers of that. So that's often what I see. I wanna ask, Ben, you said clients of the nonprofit. What do you mean by that? People that may use the service, Paul.  Yeah, just definitely, I'm trying to find ways to think of as many people as you could. And clients of the nonprofit, I can't name a nonprofit specifically, but just say they're in Vancouver and they serve the downtown East side. So with people who need services from that particular nonprofit on the downtown East side, I see them as a client. Got it. Sorry to call on you when you- You're definitely good, that's totally fine. I'm just actually sitting off here trying to also look for some information I can tweet to our TechSoupConnect Vancouver Twitter account. So I look at your slide here. No worries, no worries. So for my purposes, I am thinking, when I say customer, I am thinking of people who are paying you or in some way they're paying you, whether that is through a donation or a membership fee that they pay or a ticket that they buy. For us to talk about those individuals related to a unit economics lifetime value metric, some exchange of money is going to happen. Otherwise, it's hard maybe to measure value or that's where it's, I should say, it might be an easier way to measure value monetarily. Other types of value is certainly exchange. It's not in monetary, but this is where I'm gonna focus this conversation at least today. Customer acquisition cost. I call this the cost of getting a paying customer in the door and the reason I say in the door is because sometimes it is literally in the door of a physical location. It might also be in a digital door. You're trying to get somebody to your website to check out like an online event. I'm curious for those of you who do customer acquisition, the way I'm talking about it, what are some of the activities that you do that helps you acquire customers? Yeah, people wanna throw some of the approaches they do into the chat. I'm happy to read that off. So I'm hearing some are like direct mail is definitely one thing. Others are doing Facebook lead gen. Others are doing some paid advertising. Others have a more event focused strategy around fundraising events. Others are using like email campaigns. Others actually like Mohammed are actually leading, sorry, like the Fraser River team are actually using their programs as part of the lead acquisition strategy. Which actually I think is interesting. And I'd love to actually hear more about that if you wanna come off, because that's a new idea to me. I also got Stephen here talking about online contests, social ads. Yeah, so there's a lot of different things coming on here as people are using it. I can give one example from my own work. We often will create basically PDFs. It might be maybe like a guide to like how a nonprofit can choose a CRM or maybe it will be back when I was at the David Suzuki Foundation, a guide to low pesticide fruits and vegetables. And we would of course ask people to share their email first before they could get the download. And that was one of the acquisition strategies we had. It's fantastic. It's fantastic. And what you can see from this very long list is there's lots of ways to get people in the door. And there's an awareness part there. There is something that convinces them that they want to be a part of what you're doing. They convert to becoming a customer. At some point, we can talk a bit about marketing funnels. You're related to this. But suffice to say, there's lots of ways that you can go about this process. What is though the, what is like the formula that you could use to calculate these two metrics. When I do this, I will often calculate these metrics in what I call the static way and in the dynamic way. So the static way for LTV is you have a customer lifespan metric. So when we are speaking about memberships, this might mean there's an annual membership fee that an individual pays and they continue to pay it for a number of years. And then at some point, they leave, maybe they left the area, maybe they are not engaged as they used to be previously, maybe they found something else to participate in instead, but then some metric of customer lifespan there or retention. And then you also have the average spend. So we'll call that the price, whether that's a membership price or how much the donor is giving. And then you have the associated unit costs of serving this member.  This then gives you a number and you could say our lifetime value of a member is X dollars. And that will then inform how much you might be able to then spend on acquiring potential customers like that static way, cause it's a single number and it doesn't tell you all that much beyond that. Likewise, on the customer acquisition side, you have a cost per visit. So if for example, and a number of you were doing social ads, you were doing paid, I see, when I scroll up in the chat, you'll paid advertising, fundraising events, you have some cost of getting the word out. And then you also have some conversion rate when people learn about the event or they see the ad, some percent of them follow through, they click through, they participate. And then at some point they become a member, they make a donation, they actually transact. And that calculation also will give you a static metric. So for example, if it costs 10 dollars to get somebody to click on an ad, maybe it's a little high and their conversion rate is 10%, it's 10 divided by 10% or 100 dollars to get an annual member, for example. Let's do a little quiz here now. So here are two scenarios. You have a situation where lifetime value is $10 and one where it's $50. Which one, I say business, but you could say these are products, these are events, these are maybe different parts of your nonprofit or something that you're offering. Which one would you wanna focus on growing? So seeing somebody say two, the higher one, anybody else? Depends on the volume, okay. Anybody else? I'm gonna take the lack of the options of any other info too. I'm gonna take the lack of lots of answers to this that seems to be pretty straightforward with this question. I'm gonna take the lack of lots of answers is that you're already thinking that something else might be going on here. Before we go on with this one, let me do the same on the customer acquisition side. Let me add that. So what if now I give you a little more information and I have, say, a business or a product where in general, LTV is $10, but CAC is only $1. Okay, so now it seems maybe- This was a trick question. We were- You knew it had to be, it was too easy. It was too easy. You knew it had to be something like that. So there's a balance between the two sides here. You could have something that seems like, wow, this is an amazing lifetime value. Oh, but it also costs a lot of money to receive that LTV. And then you might also ask, what if there's an opportunity to improve margins? Maybe that second one, it starts off looking pretty bad, but I'm gonna be able to improve that. Or what if there's just a lot of potential customers for the second business and very few for the first one? Or what if it takes years to recoup that LTV and pay back the CAC? All of these questions that you could ask, and this is why when we talk about how much a customer is worth, okay, I'm gonna get the Stevens question in a second. When we talk about what a customer is worth, all of a sudden, something that seemed to be really simple and straightforward becomes a little more complicated. Now I'm gonna get the Stevens question. Why aren't the CAC costs, customer acquisition costs, why aren't they included in the unit costs for LTV? My recommendation for you, and great point from Beth, my recommendation for you is keep these two metrics separate, LTV and CAC. You keep them separate because if you start combining them, you're losing information. If you keep them separate and you say, yes, our LTV is $50 for typical members and CAC, you have to get them on is $45. If you keep them separate, then you have more of a clue on which part you might be able to improve on. If instead you just combine them into one and you subtract out the CAC and you say, it's $5, I'm just making $5, you're not sure where that's coming from. Is it coming from a really high LTV and also a very high CAC? Is it coming from a low LTV and a low CAC? You lose some information. The other reason that you might keep them separate is there are some rules of thumb when it comes to a balance between LTV and CAC. I'll introduce one to you now. The general rule of thumb that you will see is that a ratio of something like one to three or one to four is good. Now, this is a rule of thumb. It's not a law. So in other words, break this rule of thumb whenever you need. That ratio is there. In other words, we're typically not doing one to one because we're not accounting for a lot of other costs in a lifetime value metric. In other words, when you're selling that, say, membership, the gross profit of that membership, the way it's typically calculated, we're not accounting for things like a lot of the fixed costs if you have rent, if you have, well, salaries of people not associated with selling the memberships. There's a lot of things that don't go into that LTV calculation. So you need a bit of a buffer there. And there's also something that is important. I alluded to it a little earlier. It's timing. So timing is what can destroy you. You might say, we understand our customers really well, our members, our donors. We know that we can retain them with a very high percent chance. They're gonna come back every year and donate again or subscribe again to the membership. They're gonna come back 90% of the time, they do. But if it takes you years to generate enough money to pay back the CAC, you might have already had to slow down or shut down what you're doing. And you could also have situations where you actually have in effect, what is a negative LTV. Things start out looking very promising, but you were too optimistic on the length of time that you will keep people engaged and coming back. And they turn away, they leave. And you're left with this upfront cost of getting somebody signed up, whatever you paid for that, you're expecting to recoup it in some amount of time, and then it doesn't happen. And you're left with a loss for every customer that you signed up. This in general, this timing situation is why I recommend that you keep these two metrics separate. It will help you understand more how the model of your nonprofit works. Questions on this before I go ahead to a couple of other things, okay. Sorry, Paul. So I just wanna interject one quick thing. Sure. Just looking at our Twitter account, are you okay if we share a slide or? Oh yeah, that's fine. Any information? No worries, yep. Okay, thanks. No worries. When I do this exercise with companies, you typically, when you start out, certain parts of this before others. So the part that you more easily know in advance is something like CVC because you're dealing with that right up front. And it takes a while to get an understanding of LTV. When you do get this understanding, so you've been operating for a while, you've been measuring things for a while, what I'd like to do at that point is model out the way the organization works. I'm gonna show you an example of doing this. This is like a sample, a business, but I might take, so here is, I have two different types of customers or members. Maybe there's a free version of what I do and a premium version, or maybe there's different tiers of membership or different tiers of sponsorship. I might have different CACs for each tier. And then I also might have different expected revenue coming in on the first tier, on the second tier. And I also associated, I have different types of costs going in. And then I get to a different gross margin in each period. I could be measuring this in months, in years, whatever makes sense for your organization. Might have different retention rates. And what I'm trying to do in modeling, modeling it out like this, I'm trying to get to some level of predictability. This is often tough for a new organization, but ones that are around for a while, if you can get to a point like this, then it becomes a bit like a machine that you could try to optimize.  But I'll typically do this in a spreadsheet. I'll look at past months and I'll try to take what we are changing as time goes by, because as the months go by, you were probably making changes to your offers, you were maybe trying a new event for the first time, you were maybe changing pricing. And if you do that, then you could start to do a couple of other things. So a way that you might think about, are we getting better over time? This question is to look at what's called cohort metrics. So cohort metrics, I'll show an example of that. If we're looking, for example, at retention, you could look at a number of things, it could be retention, it could be donations made, signups, cohort metrics is a way to keep you honest in this whole process. And what we do for cohort metrics is, we will rather than look just month over month or year over year, what is happening or who's signing up or what the growth is, we look at a cohort of people, customers who came in at a certain time. Here I've done it by months. So you can see I have January, February, March, et cetera, all the people who became my customer in January, I put them together. All the ones who signed up became a customer in February, I put them together and on. And then I go across on the top here and I then look at how many months they've been with me as a customer. So in the first month, by default, everybody is 100% retained. They just signed up, so they couldn't have left yet. They paid that first month, they could not have left already. But then as time goes by, others drop off. And in the January cohort, I went from 100% to 20 and then there's basically nobody left by the eighth month. If I'm looking at the next cohort, so for February, I have one less month of information because those members signed up a month later, but I do the same exercise. How many are left? How do things change? So the January cohort, the first month is January, then it's February, then it's March. For the February cohort, the first month for them is February, then it's March, then it's April. I do this exercise. And what I'm trying to see is I'm tracking all of these new releases that we have or events or we're trying different types of ads. And I'm really looking to see if I look from top to bottom, are things getting better? In other words, am I retaining more and more people if I go top to bottom? Is the change that I'm making working? So this is a sign of a business nonprofit that is doing something right. They are retaining more people. So by the time I get down to the July cohort on the second month for these first ones in January, I used to only have 20% of the people left. Now in July, I have 57% left. I have improved this organization somehow. And let's see, I'm looking at a chat. I could use this cohort analysis for my different lead sources. Yes, donors that came in by events was direct mail. Yeah. And one of the points I'm gonna stress here today is do not average your entire organization out and just come out with a single number, whether it's you have one LTV, you have one CAC, the power of doing this. And I know we're going into a little bit of like your specific situations here, but the power of doing this is when you stop thinking in terms of averages. And instead you start to think in terms of our members who are this type of segment seem to behave in this way. Our donors who are this type of donor tend to behave like this. And we have maybe segmented them out into a few different types. It could be for CAC, it could be how you acquired them. We acquired this group through events, we acquired this other group through ads on social media, et cetera. Same for lifetime value, rather than just putting everybody together in the same bucket. If you do this over time, if you model this out and if things are improving, you see something like this lets you take a situation that previously might have been really difficult. We're struggling to break even. It takes us an entire year to recover the customer acquisition cost. This lets you start to see, okay, if we can keep improving, what might we expect? We had this improvement in this one segment. Can we transfer that improvement to a second segment? Questions on this before we go ahead. When you do this, you also get a handle on where you might be able to push on certain levers. So here's an example of an organization that seems like it's very simple. CAC is just $30, that's it, but they have a few different channels where they acquire customers. And those channels are different percentages of the overall acquisitions and it costs them different amounts. You got a free channel that's just word of mouth or maybe it's an email newsletter that you've built up organically. And then if you add in a new channel, maybe you have a very high touch sales channel costs a lot, right? It's gonna impact your average. It might completely be worth it because everybody who comes in from that sales channel becomes a high value donor and you should actually want to average up in CAC. So another one of the recommendations I have for you is go into more of the specifics when it becomes reasonable for the size of your organization. Break out CAC by different channels, break out LTV for different customer segments. If you can try to do this learning when it doesn't cost you as much or anything. I'll be with you in a second, Jeff. So I was just thinking, do any of you use Google AdWords has a grants program for nonprofits? Have any of you benefited from this? My list is yes. You should take a look at this. You can get, I believe it's up to $10,000 a month in free ad credits. So you need to be able to use that effectively, of course, like they will turn off the access if you're not really using it or if the performance of the ads is very poor. Yes, exactly, thanks for sharing the link. I've had only a handful of startups that I've worked with in the past that were nonprofits and they've benefited from this incredibly. Even if it just lets, oh, look at that, okay. So fantastic, you already know about this. But if that gives you the opportunity to try out some experiments and learn and you could learn in the beginning when you were trying these experiments, I often find that performance-wise it's great. Performance-wise, you see a change that in general is like this. Over time, in the beginning, you're figuring out your messaging. How are you gonna target appropriately? And the price is relatively high. You then figure that out. You can drive the price down. And then at some point, you also start running out of people. Your relevancy score starts to decrease. You run out of those ideal members or donors. And then at some point, you're back up here. It's not worth it anymore. It's a low-ill TV. And then you have to find the next segment of people to market to or you need to change something about what you're doing. But if you can do that learning on free credits, I highly recommend doing that. I have another question for all of you. How many of you have spoken to somebody even if they are in a for-profit role who does this type of customer acquisition work on a regular basis? If you haven't, I recommend it. There are people who have a role where all they do is run ad campaigns and various social networks, for example. If you're not talking to somebody who does this full-time, you're leaving some hidden information out there, I don't like putting in best practices in a presentation because it just changes too fast. The things that were working a few months ago, they stopped working or something that was cheap, a way to acquire customers that used to be cheap, becomes expensive, and I almost recommend that you find somebody, whether they are in the for-profit world or non-profit world that does acquisition to bounce ideas off of them, hear what they're dealing with, how do they run experiments? There's a lot of online tools where you can test different ad copy, ad images, and look at the different performance of them. Great, Helen does this acquisition, great. So you can learn from that. And then also on the LTV side, you might talk to somebody who focuses on customer retention. Or something I love to do is talk to people who focus just on pricing. There are pricing experts out there who will try to really get at what is the value that you are providing? And therefore, what are people willing to pay? And so how should you charge? I've seen very interesting work come from that and situations where actually charging more leads to even more customers. So if you're not doing something like that, I recommend it. And if you start modeling out the way your business works, you can have a discussion about that. Let me stop sharing for a second. Questions that you might have, because I'd rather spend the last bit of our time together taking questions from all of you.  I'm sorry, this is Myla. So if we have a Google Ads Grant vendor, we then focus on, because we can have a lot of audience segments. So would a good strategy be focusing on just the top three and consistently testing for that particular segment using one platform like you mentioned? It's a trade-off between the volume that you have. So that could be volume measured by ad spend or even just measured by how much can you handle? Well, obviously every additional platform that you add, it brings in another thing to track. So I would probably start small. If you're gonna do it in-house, you can learn a lot just spending $5 a day. You learn how these platforms work. You could see how they optimize for different ads that you might be running. You also might come out of the experience and say, maybe ads and social networks don't work for us. It's a better use of our time to do events or some other type of outreach. Or Eli mentioned the PDFs that they produce, the research as a product. So you might consider it like that. Sure. And then I see a question from Eli, Excel templates or online calculators? Yes, so everybody does this in a little different way. I've discovered, I have the ways that I like doing the calculations. I almost, and everything I wrote about it, I have not yet put it online, but if that growth unit's book is helpful, take a look, I have all the calculations in there. You could certainly find online versions of a CIC template or a world TV template. But the thing I'd probably start with is try to model out the way your organization works. So if you have paid members, different tiers, if you have donors of different tiers, how do they, how do those payments that they are giving you, how does that work through the system? How long does it take to sign them up? Are they paying annually? Is there a monthly fee? Are they paying for events in addition to their membership? So I would, I'd be thinking of that. Typically when I do this exercise with startups, that's where we begin, just understanding what is your conversion funnel like? How do you acquire customers? How should you be thinking about optimizing that? Awesome, that totally gets into the next question, which is, yeah, where do you think we should begin if we're new to this kind of work? And it sounds like for you, it's like to really understand the stages of conversion. Correct, correct. I'll share a, this is a typical conversion funnel if this helps talk through this. And by, so when we talk about a conversion funnel, it's typically presented linearly as in you have to go through each of these stages one by one. The reality is you could certainly skip somebody who hears about you at first, they could go right down to paying you in one step. Of course, it would be evaded, of course. It does happen, it does happen. When I do a conversion funnel, I literally will draw it out. I don't know, I like doing things visually and I will look at where along the pathway do you have the biggest drop off? In other words, if I could, so here, the way I have done this one, I have the biggest drop off 75% loss from the previous stage. If I could improve that one, if I could keep a higher percentage and rather than be left with 5%, if I would only lose 50%, instead of 75%, I'd be left with 10% at the end. I've just doubled the revenue that I'm taking in. That's one way that you might think of optimizing a conversion funnel. We're in like performing the worst. Let me try to improve that. That's not something- The fundraiser is here. Yeah, the multi-step donation process can sort of, you can see where you're losing people at each stage, which is interesting and terrifying. It's a presentation in itself, Paul, just this one, there are probably stages of this funnel. We could probably make four or five presentations out of this one graphic. It is a big topic. But yeah, the refrain that I keep going back to is, oh sure, Kevin, the refrain that I keep going back to is every organization is a little different. So understand how yours works. Ideally, you're collecting this information and then once you can model out, say how your conversion funnel works or how your flow of payments was coming in, model that out. It will give you some insight as to where you might improve your current situation. Last question. Yeah, we're running up. Anyone else have one last question before we close for the day? Will we wait for that to come in? I just want to wrap and say, Paul, thank you for this deep dive.