All right, Matt, nice to see you back. Welcome back, and Lita, welcome back. All right, so good afternoon, everyone. Just a few things at the top, and then be happy to take your questions. Earlier today, Secretary Austin participated in the Fifth North American Defense Ministerial virtually, hosted by Mexico's Secretary of the Navy, Admiral Jose Rafael Ojeda, Duran in Mexico City, and attended by Mexico's Secretary of National Defense, General Luis Cresencio Sandoval, and Canada's Minister of National Defense, Bill Blair, to discuss opportunities to strengthen North American defense cooperation. The NADEM chairs, co-chairs, discussed deepening regional defense cooperation, developing a continental threat assessment, fortifying cyber defense, and supporting trilateral humanitarian assistance and disaster response, and strengthening climate security and resilience. Secretary Austin and his Mexican and Canadian counterparts reaffirmed the importance of the North American defense relationship, and Secretary Austin agreed to host the sixth NADEM in 2025. We will have a readout later today on defense.gov. Switching gears, US Northern Command will conduct Arctic Edge 2024 from February 23rd to March 11th in various locations throughout Alaska. This joint and combined multi-domain exercise will focus on operating in extreme cold and high-altitude environments, and will include Northcom headquarters, Special Operations Command North, and Marine Forces North, along with participation from international allies and interagency representatives. State and local partners, including the Alaska National Guard, Alaska State and Local Law Enforcement, Alaska Native Tribes, corporations, and communities will also participate. Arctic Edge is an annual defense exercise designed to demonstrate that our forces are engaged, postured, and ready to assure, deter, and defend the US and Canada in an increasingly complex Arctic security environment. In other news, large-scale Global Exercise 2024, a series of all-domain US military exercises executed alongside allies and partners around the globe, begins this month and will run through June. LSGE-24 is a global exercise coordinated this year by US European Command in collaboration with participating COD combatant commands. It will incorporate military personnel from the US Army, Navy, Marine Corps, Air Force, and Space Force, and demonstrate joint and multinational military cooperation. LSGE-24 is comprised of multiple exercises designed to strengthen agility and interoperability with allies and partners. Collectively, these activities will highlight America's robust presence and capabilities alongside allies, partners, and fellow US combatant commands. Of the multiple events associated with LSGE-24, 11 are set to take place in the UCOM area of responsibility. The remaining events will be executed by participating US combatant commands. This series of exercises is distinct but complementary to NATO's steadfast Defender 2024. LSGE-24 is global and focuses on agility and interoperability for US-led activities. No nation can confront today's challenges alone, and this exercise is how we affirm our commitment to global security. In other news, earlier today, Acting Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, Ms. Sasha Baker departed for travel to the United Kingdom. She is scheduled to co-chair the third US-UK Strategic Policy Dialogue alongside UK Ministry of Defense Director, General Security Policy, Mr. Paul Wyatt on Friday. The two leaders are slated to discuss a wide range of defense and security issues that focus on aligning US and UK geographic and thematic priorities in the Euro-Atlantic, Middle East, and Indo-Pacific regions. A readout from Ms. Baker's travel will be made available on defense.gov later. And finally, I want to take a moment to emphasize the critical national security importance of Congress passing our budget and the impacts for the compacts of free association. These are important agreements with our long-standing partners in the Pacific Islands region, the Federated States of Micronesia, Palau, and the Republic of the Marshall Islands. As part of the compacts, the US military enjoys exclusive access to a critical part of the region that's actually larger than the continental United States. Our State Department colleagues have successfully negotiated a 20-year extension, and now we just need Congress to fund and enact it. And with that, I'd be happy to take your questions. Go to Lita. Thanks, Sabrina. Can you bring us up to date on the 30-day review? When will that be made public? And do you expect that we will get to see the entire review or how much of it do you think will be sort of classified? And then, secondarily, just with all the Houthi activity in the region, is the US looking at efforts to expand the maritime coalition? Is there enough assets in the region, or do you need to add more countries? Thanks, Lita, for your question. So I'll take the last one first. So in terms of, I think what you're referring to is Operation Prosperity Guardian. We've always welcomed more nations to join that coalition. We have seen growth since December when it was first announced, when the Secretary was in the region. So of course, we welcome more nations to join. Just recently, you saw the EU announce a coalition as well that will work alongside Operation Prosperity Guardian. So we certainly are seeing an expansion of assets in the region, even if they're not under OPA, they're still, OPG, I'm sorry, they're still working alongside us. And it's like-minded nations with the same goal in mind. In terms of your first question on the 30-day review, don't have an exact timeline of when we're going to release either, what will be released? If it's the full review, if it's redacted, if it's an executive summary, don't have that yet. We're working towards getting you something, hopefully that soon, but I just don't have the date yet. Jen. Sabrina, it's the Pentagon considering what weapons it could send to Ukraine that would make up for the past five months of congressional funding being stalled, and is the administration finally willing to send attack arms if the long range artillery, if Congress passes that funding? So in terms of weapons that we're considering sending, we know that Ukraine's top priorities are still air defense, artillery, ammunition. So whatever package comes together, whatever next PDA, you're going to see something that looks like what meets their priorities, and that's something that was discussed at the UDCG. I don't have anything to preview for you. I think you've heard others at the NSC also talk about how we're not taking anything off the table, but we certainly want to make sure that we're getting Ukraine what it needs. We can only do that when we have the supplemental passed in Congress. But of course, whatever we give Ukraine, it will be to meet their urgent battlefield needs. Ukraine has said repeatedly that they need attack arms. Are you ruling that out? We haven't taken anything off the table. And what message do you have for Ukrainian soldiers on the front lines that are facing Russian bombardment right now? Can you assure them that the US is still a trustworthy ally? Well, I think you've heard the president speak to this and the secretary that we will be with Ukraine for as long as it takes. And just recently, the vice president was in Munich speaking directly to European allies partners the entire world about the United States' commitment. And in that speech, I think she laid out a very good case of how America cannot turn inward. We cannot resort to isolationism. We're best when we are working with our partners, with our allies. We can't stand by as an aggressor invades its sovereign neighbor. And so you have a commitment from the United States that we are gonna be with you for as long as it takes. Unfortunately, that is hampered by Congress. We do need Congress to give us the funding in order to supply Ukraine with what it needs. We don't, we not only need the supplemental, we need a budget passed. And so we're working with Congress and hopefully we'll be able to get something done. Lastly, on the Houtis, how many US ships have been hit by the Houtis? US ships been hit or engaged in activity with? Actually been hit, either merchant or US. I'm not aware of, I actually, I shouldn't speak to something that I don't have the numbers for, so let me take that question. I can't give you the exact number on US ships. But in terms of engagement, I can also take that question for you. Tom and Alara and then come on. The administration has been pushing Israel for many months now to allow more aid into Gaza. It's just not happening. I know Jordan has airlifted some aid in. I think the king was aboard the aircraft. And now there was an op-ed in the post by a number of senators saying, the US should look at airlifts on its own, as well as sea lift to get more aid into Gaza. Now I know the Pentagon, I think, early on sent three plane loads of aid in for Gaza. Are you looking at anything along those lines, sea lift or airlifting aid in? That's something that, I mean, we would of course coordinate any aid efforts with other agencies, but that's something that the helm would be taken by state and USAID. And depending on what the requirements are, of course, DOD would be on standby, willing to assist. But you have folks on the ground, like Ambassador Satterfield, you have other folks from the NSC in the region as well, urging for humanitarian aid to get in. Should the department... We're doing that very much. Everyone said the same thing. It's not happening. So I'm asking, are you at least looking at providing either more plane loads of aid or going with airdrops or a sea lift? Again, that's something that state and USAID would be the lead on. And if asked DOD to help coordinate, to help get aid in, of course, we'd be willing to assist. But right now I'd direct you to state and aid for more of those questions. Laura. Thank you, Sabrina. A couple of questions. First of all, on the Houthis, does DOD assess that the Houthi attacks have ramped up over the past couple of days? It seems like we're seeing a lot more activity. And then can you also tell us how many ships both commercial and military have been damaged or taken offline by the Houthi attacks? I can, that's kind of similar to what Jen was asking. So I'll take that question in terms of US ships and then commercial ships. So we can get back to you on that. I think, yes, we've certainly seen in the past 48, 72 hours an increase in attacks from the Houthis, more consistency. But again, I think it'd be helpful to point out, one of the ships that they did hit was the Ruby Mar, which had to have its crew evacuated, which is currently still in the water, but taking on water as we speak, it's creating an environmental hazard with the leakage of all the fuel that it's carrying. On top of that, it was carrying it, to my understanding, as fertilizer. So the Houthis are creating an environmental hazard right in their own backyard. On top of that, as I mentioned at the podium the other day, they hit a ship that was carrying grain towards Yemen for their own citizens for a starving population. So again, they're saying that they're conducting these attacks against ships that are connected to Israel. These are ships that are literally bringing good services aid to their own people, and they're creating their own international problem. And just secondly, I wanted to ask you about Rafa, has the IDF provided any plans to DOD for its plan to protect the millions ahead of any kind of ground invasion? I'm not aware of any plan fully presented to the United States to review. Again, we're not asking to check their homework. What we're asking them to do is put forward a credible plan that they will be able to, as we have said in many conversations, protect the over one million innocent Palestinians that are there. And of course, any credible plan would have to take into account food, medicine, services, how are you going to provide those as you move a population? I know that's something that they're working through. The Secretary, of course, remains engaged with Minister Galant, not just at his level, but levels here at this building and throughout the interagency. But I'm just not going to get ahead of any plans that Israel's working on right now. He has not seen that plan yet. No, we haven't seen the plan, but we're not also asking to grade homework here. We want to make sure that whatever plan that they do brief us on does include protecting innocent civilians in that region. Yes, Phil. Excuse me. One question on Ukraine. Sure. And one on Red Sea. On Ukraine, would you describe the situation facing Ukrainian forces as an eroding stalemate right now? And if not, how would you describe it? And then on the Red Sea, can you give us a sense of how much so far has been spent by the United States on Operation Prosperity Guardian and the U.S. Naval mission? Do you have a daily estimate, a weekly estimate? Is that something you could take? I don't have a daily or weekly estimate. As you know, Operation Prosperity Guardian is ongoing. So when I think we have a better sense of when we can feel like we can provide more of a figure, I'd be happy to do that. In terms of your question on assessing Ukraine right now in the battlefield, I mean, I'd leave it up to the Ukrainians to assess their positions and how their general assessment of the war, but they do continue to make strides within the East and the South. We do continue to see them make progress, continue to push the Russian forces back. The issue is what they're running into right now is the fact that they don't have enough ammunition and artillery, and that's partly because we're not able to supply it. We're not able to be able to give it to them because, frankly, of congressional inaction. So we have seen the strategic withdrawal from Avdifka. We don't want to see them have to make those tough decisions again. So you heard me say it, but I'll say it again. We're continuing to urge Congress to pass the supplemental so we can flow PDA packages as urgently as possible, but I'd let Ukraine characterize their own efforts on the battlefield. Matt, yeah, welcome back. Yeah, thank you. Just wondering, have there been any new attempted attacks on US forces in the Middle East, in Iraq, or Syria? And is it the Department's assessment that there's essentially a credible deterrence that's taken hold at this point? Not to my knowledge. There hasn't been an attack since February 4th. So we certainly welcome that there hasn't been any attacks. I think we send a very strong message with our strikes, and we will continue to do so if we need to, and we'll do so at a time and place of our choosing. But haven't seen any activity since February 4th. Thank you. Yeah, of course. Yes, Konstantin. Thanks, Brita. Yesterday, the Navy revealed that they're prosecuting one of their chief petty officers under the USMJ for espionage charges. In August, the DOJ, or last August, the DOJ indicted two sailors for espionage charges as well. Does the Pentagon feel like there's a problem here that there's sort of this growing drumbeat of service numbers being charged for espionage? Look, these are ongoing investigations, so I'm just going to have to refer you to the Navy for that. Great. I will come to the phones and then come back in the room. Dan Lamoth, Washington Post. Hi, Sabrina. Thank you. I wanted to take back on Adivka a number of reports over the last couple of days, suggesting anywhere from a couple dozen to several hundred or even 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been left behind, missing, captured, various characterizations. What's the Pentagon's assessment at this point? What are you hearing from your Ukrainian counterparts? Thanks. Yeah, thanks, Dan, for the question. Unfortunately, we don't have an assessment just yet. I'd have to refer you to the Ukrainians to speak to Adivka and their own operations there. Heather, USNI. Thanks so much. It seems that with the uptick in Houthi attacks that they seem to be, I guess, a little bit more accurate, giving what happened with Rabimar. And it doesn't seem that the US deterrence efforts are working. Is there any plans to step up efforts or change in tactic to in order to try to stop these Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea? Well, thanks, Heather. We always reserve the right to respond at a time and place of our choosing. I'm certainly not going to get ahead of any action that we may or may not take. I think what you're seeing, though, in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden is a coalition of like-minded countries coming together, including most recently with the EU announcing their own coalition that's working alongside Operation Prosperity Guardian in working to defend innocent mariners that are transiting the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and to allow for the freedom of navigation and upholding the rule of law. And so we're very proud of our efforts there. Our men and women in uniform are putting their lives on the line every single day, alongside our coalition partners and allies. And I'll just leave it at that. I'll take one more from the phone and then come back in the room. Jeff Schogel, task and purpose. Thank you. Has the Pentagon seen any indications that the cell phone outage that's affecting AT&T customers may have been caused by a foreign adversary like China, Russia, North Korea, Iran? Thanks, Jeff. I'm not aware of us doing an assessment on this. I know the cell phone companies are looking into this. We've seen the reporting, but not aware of it being because of a foreign actor and AT&T in any way at this point. Thanks, Rio. Thanks, Sabrina. This week, a US B-52 bomber flew over the South China Sea with Philippine fighter aircraft. So what message is the Pentagon sending to China by having a strategic bomber participate in joint air patrol with Philippines this time? So, Rio, I think what you're referring to is just the regular rotation of a B-52 in the region. These B-52 bombers are part of the bomber task force to support strategic deterrence missions aimed at reinforcing the rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific region. The 23rd Expeditionary Bomb Squadron will integrate alongside allies and partners to demonstrate US commitment to security and stability throughout the region. But for more information, I direct you to stratcom or to Pacific Air Forces. Separately. Sure. Have you seen any cases of China's unsafe flight against US and allies aircraft since the beginning of the year? I'm not aware of any recent examples or since the beginning of the year. As you know, I think it was late last year, Dr. Ratner briefed on a few unprofessional, unsafe, risky behaviors that we had witnessed, but I'm not aware of any recent examples of one. Yeah, Natasha. Thanks, Sabrina. So the US has conducted a number of strikes against the Houthis. They are near daily occurrence now, but it seems like they're not working. And I'm just wondering what the Pentagon's assessment is of how the Houthis seem to be adapting to this kind of new reality, these daily strikes by the US and some by the UK. Are they going underground more? Are they stockpiling and shoring up their weapons supplies? What is the assessment of how they are essentially preparing to dig in for the long haul? Well, some of that assessment also includes our own intelligence assessments, which I wouldn't be able to speak to from here. What I will say, and I know you've heard this, but we never said we've wiped off the map all of their capabilities. We know that the Houthis maintain a large arsenal. They are very capable, they have sophisticated weapons, and that's because they continue to get them from Iran. In terms of an adaptation from tactics, I don't think we've seen anything new. It's more when we see missiles on rails, when we see them about to launch an attack, we are able to take these proactive dynamic strikes. We've been able to do it more regularly because they frankly have been conducting more attacks more regularly. And we always reserve that right. I think the most sort of more unique or different tactic that we saw was with the unmanned underwater vehicle that they employed for the first time a few days ago. But other than that, I mean they've pretty much stuck to the same playbook. Yeah, did you have a question? Sure. Do you have any of it or anything on the ongoing discussions with the Iraqi forces regarding the high military commission? I know that there were meetings last week, but I don't have an update for you on any meetings that have taken place since then. Well, US forces are in Iraq to assist Iraq's security forces in the defeat of ISIS, where the Iraqi top officials say, including Iraq Prime Minister just said yesterday that we don't more need US forces and the last forces. Do you have any comment on it? Look, we're in Iraq at the pleasure of the Iraqi government. We value the partnership that we have with the ISF. We continue to work alongside them and it's part of the D ISIS mission. The HMC is there as to discuss what our relationship, what our footprint looks like in Iraq. Those are ongoing conversations and we're certainly gonna be part of those, but I just don't have more for you. I'm gonna go back to the phones and then happy to come back in the room. Ashley, breaking defense. Hi, Sabrina, I wanted to ask, there's been a slew of DOD IG reports that have come out lately pointing out some flaws in either the flow of weapons into Ukraine or sustainments and training to keep them up and running. Is there a larger look from DOD at the actual logistics or sustaining the weapons within Ukraine? So, I mean, thanks Ashley for the question. You know, we welcome these IG reports. They certainly shed light on more of what we can be doing and what we could be doing better. I think it's important to put the context or put the IG report that you're referring to into a bit of context. I think what you're referring to is the one that just came out a day or two ago. We have sent unprecedented security assistance to Ukraine at such a rapid rate. And Ukraine is right now modernizing its military in the middle of a war. On top of that, we don't have boots on the ground in Ukraine. We don't have people out in the field being able to do sustainment and maintenance alongside the Ukrainians. So we do offer tele-support, but again, we're not on the ground. And this is something that the secretary has been very focused on since the very beginning. He is very familiar with the Bradleys, the Strikers, the Abrams. He understands intimately what it takes to maintain these systems. And so part of every PDA package is ensuring that the Ukrainians have the support and the maintenance that they're gonna need. And also part of that is training. And so we're certainly aware that we could be doing more, but we've been saying from the beginning that we need to make sure that the Ukrainians have every tool available to them to maintain these systems, and we're doing that. Last question from the phones. I'm sorry, lost my sheet here. Carla Bab, VOA. Hey, thanks, Sabrina. I have a question on Pakistan, actually. And then if I can, I'd like to follow up on the Houthis. But the Pakistan's ambassador to the US was talking this week about calling for fast track approval to restore the defensive equipment deal between the US and Pakistan. So is the Pentagon considering restoration of defense assets between these two countries? And considering that they're getting their weapons from China now, how concerned is the US on Pakistan's reliance on China for defense equipment? Thanks, Carla. I would direct you to State Department. I believe they're engaged in those conversations, so I just don't have more to add at this time. And you said you had a question on the Houthis? Yeah, if I can. The concerning thing is that the ships keep getting hit. And as I understood it, the goal of the US mission out there is to protect the ships that are sailing in this vital waterway. Is the US and its allies, are they failing at their mission right now? And if they're not failing because ships being hit, if that's not a failure, then how would the Pentagon characterize it? Thanks, Carla. Respectfully, take a bit of issue with the question. When you say the ships keep getting hit, there are hundreds, thousands of ships that go through the Red Sea, the BAM, throughout this time period since these Houthis launched their attacks November 19th. I think it's important to remember that our service members out there, alongside our coalition partners and our allies, every single day are engaging in attacks from the Houthis and shooting down UAVs, missiles, an unmanned underwater vehicle, and protecting ships. Do some of the missiles get through every now and then? Yes, we've seen that happen. But for the majority of the time, our engagements have been successful, our allies' engagements have been successful, and we know the importance of this waterway. We know that 10 to 15% of the world's commerce flows right through here. So again, I would push back respectfully on the idea that ships keep getting hit and that this operation isn't successful. If we did nothing, then these ships would be getting hit every single day. So I think we have to remember that commerce does continue to flow through the Red Sea, through the Gulf of Aden, and we wanna continue to see that. But yes, absolutely, the Houthis are every single day putting at risk innocent mariners transiting, putting at risk the freedom of navigation, and therefore Operation Prosperity Guardian is there to protect against that, alongside other allies and partners who have formed their own coalitions. And I'm sorry, I forgot the second part of your question. If you wouldn't mind repeating that. I mean, that was pretty much it, but I mean, if ships keep getting hit, are more resources not needed to stop these ships from getting hit? I mean, this is the United States in a massive international coalition going up against a small militant group, and they're managing to hit about a ship a day, it seems, over the last few days. I haven't spoke to them, but I would imagine they would consider that successful. So what more can the US do, or should the US do on this issue? Well, thanks Carla. Again, we are certainly welcome to more allies and partners joining our coalition, like-minded nations that wanna uphold the rule of law. Right now, Central Command is working every single day to ensure the freedom of navigation with the resources that they have, and working alongside partner nations. And so, I'm just gonna leave it at that. Constantine, and then, yeah. Thank you, madam.  My simple question is as far as attacks in the Middle East on these ship lines and also on innocent peoples and all that, there are many bad actors in the area. Who is financing these bad actors or terrorists who are attacking these ships and innocent with the financing and also weapons? Is it Iran, Russia, China, or all three or more? In terms of the Houthis, I think what you're referring to is the Houthis and the activity in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. We know that Iran funds groups like the Houthis, like these other militant groups that we see in Iraq and Syria. So Iran certainly has its fingerprints behind the support, whether it be financial, training, equipping, Iran certainly is supporting these groups. Constantine and then Mike. So earlier this week there was some reporting that the air force has identified a mechanical failure as part of the Osprey investigation. Does the, you know, as of right now, does the DODs still have confidence in the Osprey as a platform? Look, it is a very capable, unique agile platform. In terms of confidence, that's why the services are doing the stand-down and evaluating that. I know that there's an ongoing investigation, so I won't get ahead of that, but it's really up to the services to decide whether they deem that these Ospreys are, you know, that they should continue to fly. But these are very unique platforms that offer the commander a range of options. And so, you know, I'll let the investigation continue. Mike. Have there been any countries other than the U.S. and the U.K. that have struck, that have attacked any of the Houthi targets? There's at all just the U.S. and the U.K. of all the allies operating for Prosperity Guardian or the other... There have been other engagements for other countries, but we'll let them speak for themselves. All right, Louis. Sabrina, just thought, I knew you spoke earlier about the incident with this Navy charges against the sailor for Espionage. Can you tell us anything specifically about this case as far as you are aware of it? I can't, unfortunately. I just don't have more information. I would refer you to the Navy for further details. And this is now would be the third incident involving a Navy sailor in the last year with similar types of charges. Is there a concern here that you may need to reinforce some of the existing policies, reinforce the training for service members across DOD, of reaffirming what they should be careful of and disclosing information? Again, it's an ongoing investigation. I'd refer you to the Navy, but if the Navy feels like they need to do better reinforcement of whether it's ethics or regulations, I'll let the Navy speak to that. But again, it's an ongoing investigation, so I don't wanna get ahead of that. Great, all right, thank you, everyone.


Trump was incredibly shameless and brazen in the way that he tried to subvert the will of voters in 2020 by trying to steal the election away from Joe Biden, the rightful winner. And now we're learning just how active the Trump administration was in trying to thwart democracy because of a new PowerPoint that we all are learning about now where they go through very specific ways that they can just end democracy in the United States. And to say that is not hyperbole. We were this close to losing our democracy because of Donald Trump, and you might think, well, it didn't happen. This is just old news. I don't know. See, because we're learning about this now should light the fire under our butts to fight to save democracy. Now, since we have a limited amount of time to act, Democrats should be doing things to fix the vulnerabilities that make us susceptible to a coup succeeding. And we'll talk about that. But now I want to get to the details here because they are genuinely disturbing.  So the Washington Post reports a retired U.S. Army colonel, they're talking about Phil Waldron, who circulated a proposal to challenge the 2020 election, including by declaring a national security emergency and seizing paper ballots said that he visited the White House on multiple occasions after the election, spoke with President Donald Trump's chief of staff, Mark Meadows, maybe eight to 10 times and briefed several members of Congress on the eve of the January 6th riot. A version of the presentation made its way to the White House chief of staff, Mark Meadows, on January 5th. That information surfaced publicly this past week after the congressional committee investigating the insurrection released the letter that said Meadows had turned the document over to the committee. The presentation was that there was significant foreign interference in the election. Here's the proof Waldron said, quote, these are constitutional, legal, feasible, acceptable and suitable courses of action. The PowerPoint circulated by Waldron included proposals for Vice President Mike Pence on January 6th to reject electors from states where fraud occurred or replace them with Republican electors. It included a third proposal in which the certification of Joe Biden's victory was to be delayed and U.S. Marshals and National Guard troops were to help, quote, secure and count paper ballots in key states. So this isn't details from a fictional book. This isn't a story about some developing country that just recently democratized. This happened in the United States where they were actively weighing out things they can do to steal the election from Joe Biden. And looking at these PowerPoints, it's honestly just so shocking. So let's go through it here. On this slide titled, options for January 6th, VP Pence, seats for Republican electors over the objections of Democrats and states where fraud occurred. Now ask yourself, why would he want to seat Republican electors? Well, so they can override the will of the people in those respective states and just override the popular vote and vote for Donald Trump anyway. VP Pence rejects the electors from states where fraud occurred causing the election to be decided by remaining electoral votes. VP Pence delays the decision in order to allow for a vetting and subsequent counting of all legal paper ballots. Now in a slide title recommendations, brief senators and congressmen on foreign interference, declare national security emergency, foreign influence and control electronic voting systems, declare electronic voting in all states invalid. We're talking about straight up canceling millions and millions of ballots, legal and genuine paper ballot counts or constitutional remedy delegated to Congress. So they had a multitude of things that they were talking about here. You lie about foreign interference and you declare a state of emergency or a national security emergency subsequently as a result of said cyber attack. And after you declare that state of a national emergency, then you use that to further do authoritarian things, give yourself more legal leeway. This is genuinely stunning, genuinely stunning. And it's not that surprising to know that Trump wanted to do these things and these things were being considered, but to see how intricate they were in going through all of the different things that they can do to kill democracy. It's still, it's surprising to see this also by just sending electors that would vote for Donald Trump and override the will of the people. I mean, at that point, they just don't care about democracy. They don't care about votes willing to declare electronic voting in all states invalid. I mean, we are talking about mass disenfranchisement full on authoritarianism. I mean, there are dictators and authoritarian regimes who aren't this bracing, but these are things that the Trump White House less than a year ago was considering. Just let that sink in. This was a very serious attack on our democracy, a very serious attack. More details here. So in response to the possibility of Republicans sending alternate pro-Trump electors to the electoral college to just override the popular votes in many states, while Mark Meadows was briefing a member of Congress on the idea and reportedly said that he loved the idea, loved the idea of stealing an election away. And on the eve of the January 6th Capitol, Ryan Mark Meadows sent an email suggesting that the National Guard was on standby to, quote, protect pro-Trump people. So anticipating the riot that did actually happen, they were suggesting that maybe the National Guard can come in. We're talking about them trying to push a military coup. We were this close. Now, whenever I talk about the threat that Trump posed and continues to pose to our democracy, there's a lot of people that roll their eyes because they think, look, we should just look forward. Trump's out of office. Now we have to focus on Joe Biden. Exactly. That's why you talk about this. Because right now, Joe Biden and Democrats have a very limited amount of time to act. If they don't fix this now, if they don't see all of these vulnerabilities in our system and correct it, they're essentially complicit in a coup that does occur. And when you look at how GOP-controlled states are giving themselves the legal authority to override the will of voters, we don't know if this is constitutional. I mean, I should say it's unconstitutional, but we don't know if the Supreme Court would invalidate these things because there's been some hints that maybe Amy Coney Barrett and Kavanaugh or Alito, I can't remember which one, would actually side with these states doing this. But basically, they're trying to strip local county officials of control and allow the state legislature to control elections, not allow the state attorney general in some states to control the elections, let the state legislators control the outcome of elections. So in the event Georgia, for example, with Brian Kamp wants to send alternate electors to the Electoral College, they can do that. So it's not that this is old news and we should move on. Contrary to that, we should be focusing on this right now because I am anticipating a bloodbath in 2022. And if that is the case, then Democrats have less than a year to act and meaningfully get this fixed. Like there's a lot of things that they have to do. A lot of things that they have to do first and foremost, abolishing the Electoral College is really important because that's one of the key ways that they were considering just undermining the will of the people. On top of that, they need to do voter reform, create national laws that override these states that are putting into place voter suppression and anti-democratic bills. Now is the time to act. So anyone that tells you move on from Donald Trump, move on from January 6th, no, those people are enabling the future coup and death of our democracy, essentially. We have to act now. And look, we were really lucky that Trump wasn't able to pull this off. It happened pretty quickly. I don't think that he anticipated a loss. So he had a very disorganized attempt at doing this coup.  He tried to do everything that he could. He tried to put pressure on people. We know the infamous call with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, where he tried to pressure him to find votes. Trump tried to do what he could, but he couldn't. But he's not going to fall short next time. If he runs for president again, who knows what's going to happen? This man is an authoritarian. Now Republicans are giving themselves the power to assist Donald Trump. Donald Trump is trying to cleanse the GOP of anyone who didn't go along with the big lie. And he's endorsing candidates who support the big lie and believe the election was stolen. So this is incredibly serious. And if you don't take this seriously, then you just don't care about democracy. And I know that that seems really reductionist, but this is a serious threat that we haven't encountered before. Donald Trump is an authoritarian. When he was in office, he joked about running for a third term. And that's not a joke. Like, he was probably being serious. He would run for a third term. This man is an authoritarian. And it's not necessarily just Trump that I'm worried about. But if another authoritarian-esque demagogue like Donald Trump arises in the future, once Trump is long gone, well, they're going to see the way that he laid the groundwork. And they might be a lot more smart than Donald Trump. They might be able to actually pull it off. Trump might be able to pull it off with the assistance of Republicans in many GOP-controlled states. So now is the time to act. Now is the time to not just move on and let Trump go. Now is the time to put pressure on the Democratic Party nationally to pass laws that protect democracy. Otherwise, they are complicit if a coup does end up killing democracy in the United States.


Well, th remove for the great welcome. I'm really pleased to be in Dublin, I don't really know enough people in Dublinthat's why I keep having to come back here,neishaameor ac mi yw aein ac rhaid i sefnethio ddim I'm thrilled to be here I know a wonderful audience, I can see that already and the title, maybe I should explain that a little bit clearly one has to be a bit provocative I think the euro as it was originally conceived has come to an end a we are now carrying out a blame game about who is responsible for that. So I hope at the end of our who-done-it here today, we'll have a few more clues laid down in the sand as to why that should be. It was said that I was stimulating before lunch, well that of course is unusual for Dublin to have stimulants before lunch. But maybe there is something in this, there is a deeper meaning here, because I think the Irish have been very good during the whole crisis at getting their retaliation in early… So to have stimulants before lunch maybe is the way forward for the Irish economy. Regarding the Euro which is after all the theme, I would like to make three sets of remarks... …and very, very simple really, why do we have the Euro? ..y'r ystafell sy'n meddwl yw'r ysgrifennu. A rydych yn ymweld yma iddyn nhw. Yn ddweud y byddai'r ysgrifennu yn y rhan o'r ysgrifennu. Felly, mae'r ystyried ei wneud er mwyn i'r ysgrifennu. Mae'r ysgrifennu sy'n meddwl ym mwyn ymddangos ymblimau ac ymddangos ambygau... ..y ff chair o'r ysgrifennu Europeid... ..y fydd ymgylchedd yn ysgrifennu yma sy'n meddwl yma. Felly, mae'n rydyn ni'n meddwl yma... a ydych chi'n gweld i'r wych yn syniadau yn yraedd. A mae'n ddefnyddio'r pethau ar gweithio, am y greif i gael yr unrhyw peth mai'n gweithio, Halfwyd, ein bod ni'n gweithio ar eich bell, ein bod ni'n gweithio ar weld ein bod ni'n gweithio arall yn ymryd. Rydw i fynd ar arlesio argymauír Prysyn, peirwyr ni'n gweithio ar rhan oed oedd eich Llywodraeth Prysyn. Mae'r rhaglen niw yw'n cael ei wneud i'r ddweud o'r canflogaeth yn Fflawnio a Fflawnio. Mae'n rhan o'r cyllid o fflawnio yn y cwntechter o'r ddeudio i'r unionau oherwydd ym Mhwyloedd Ysgrifennu. Mae'r unionau munitariau yn cael ei ddweud i'r unionau munitariad yn cael eu ddeudio i'r unionau munitariad. Mae'n rhan o'r cwntechter o'r ddeudio i'r unionau munitariad yn cael eu ddweud i'r unionau munitariad. wrth i dweud o bobl y ff newlyt fel y dyfliadau Walking for the two biggest, most important nations on the mainland to come together and to forge a new unity after all their differences of the last two centuries. I noticed the picture of Jack the Law down says that really is the second reason to complete the single market, the mantra of a single currency for a single market. iawn i chi'n gweithio'n mynd i'r ffordd oedden nhw'n meddwl i'r mynd i gweithio'n meddwl i'r ffordd yma o'r gweithio'n meddwl am bwyd haynodol, i chi'n gweithio'n meddwl i'r ffordd oedden nhw'n meddwl i chi'n mynd i gweithio'n meddwl i chi'n meddwl. Mae yna ymmhwyng â'r cymryd yn y 1980 o'r Ymddych Y Llywodraeth. Mae'n meddwl i'r ffordd o'r hynodol o'r idea, oedd oedd anodol, Yn gwrthwynt gyfw�anfa ym mwy o唯ed o'r Egyrchu meddwl Gyda'u meddwl yma. Daeth ein farr yw'r ardal yn ôl yn i gael yrhewma yma. A drwy'r ffordd, mae'n gwaith eto'i gyda'r Amhericyn sy'n bryd ac ddiddor ni'n gweithio ar yr Amhericyn yn bod y lle mae'r complain arall fel oherwydd a'r negatur ac yn ei ddechrau. Byddwn i weld mae'n gwoes mwy'n gwybodaeth a'r angen i gyflym gyda'r Eegyro yn y byth iddyn nhw'n cyfrwyr cyfahanol yma… ydyna cymryd gyda'i amrioli sydd princessiol ar y ddolla a'r munачadau yw'r cyflym o'r bwynt layr. Mae'r Rhiforol yn ddigwyddol i fynd i'raufen i ddodol yn fy penderfyniad. Mae'r Rhiforol'r Rhiforol yn ddigwyddol i ddysgu'r cyfeidliadau i fynd i fynd i fynd i ddysgu'r cwrs i ddigwyddol i ddysgu'r cyfeidliadau i fynd i fynd i ffraeg i ddyddwydol i ddysgu'r ddysgu'r ddysgu. Ar gyfer yma, hynny'n gwneud y byddwch y cyfnod yn byddwch cyfnod ar gyfer gyffredinol. Fi'r gwrs, oherwydd, mae Gwdeithgaredd Dysdaint erbyn dweud y Gweithgaredd y Gweithgaredd, ddweud y gweithgaredd y Gweithgaredd, oherwydd mae'n gwneud gan gweithgaredd. Mae'r gyffredinol yn ddefnyddio'r ddechrau sy'n cyffredinol i ddechrau'r gwahanol, byddwch ei ddaig yn ymwyno eu cyfnod. Mae Europiliad wedi chi'n gwneud eich gweithgaredd o'r ffath, ,고 ydych yn fwyaf o wir cynnwys. Y Ddechrau byddai gynhyrchu'r ystyried i'ch angen i ddechrau'r sydd. Y Ddechrau byddai gyda profiwn cyllidellfa byddai gyda rhanol. Y Ddechrau byddai gynhyrchu, yn oetaf gyda swyddfa paremph yw gweld y erfynol ac yn olygu'r gwirionedd. A dyna i'r meddwl cyfweld i, dyna ei fod yn ogen erbyn yn gweithio i ddechrau, efallai y Ddechrau byddai eich cyfarasu gyda'r yrhyw iawn, oedda'r llywodau cynhyrchol y drafnol. ac y dyfodol yn ei ddweud yn fwy o'r gwybodaeth a fwy o'r fwy o'r rheolog wedi'i llwyddon yma. Mae'n mynd i ddod, i'r Llyfrgell Pwy o'r cyfrifodd gyda'r Llyfrgell. Be'r idea wedi'u gyfweld ar y dyfodol 20 o 30 ymgyrch yma, y dyfodol i'r ddweud ac y dyfodol i'r Llyfrgell. A'r Llyfrgell er mwyn i'r gwaith, mae'n mynd i'r stachur, Ien i'r llwyddoedd yn hunigio'r hwn yn ymddangos. Fy hwn i'r gweithio, i ddefnyddio'r llwyddoedd yn Palau Bwrn, ac y dypa'r unidau gwirionedd yn ystod yn y ffordd o'r Llyfr Gwyrdoedd. Mae hynny'n ei wneud yn gweithio'r llwyddoedd yn llwyddoedd, dyma'r gwirionedd yn ystod yn gyfrifio'r hwnnw. Mae hynny'n ei ddweud o'r unidau bobl yn Unidog, yw eu sylwb ychydig mewn rhaglen cyntaf y cynhyrch i'r hyn ti'r ymwneud i yw'r hyn ac yn gwneud yn hyd yn hynny, yn hynny, yn hynny energig ac ynbarth o'i perneu gyfran. Mae yn hynny yn sicrhau sy'n ei hirio. Mae'r ddondig mewn uned yn hwnnenau, ac ond'i'n etymu am y ymwneud i'r uned. Mae'r uned yn gweithio', raenwn yr ymddindod llweol wedi'u wneud, ac mae'r ddechrau'n iawn o arferfyn ffwrdd o'r uned yn hynododaeth a'r uned yn ours. ..cymdeithas a'i fynd i fynd yn ddwell yn ddweud. Wel, mae nhw dyma'n mynd i'n meddwl yng Nghymru... ..yna'n ddwell yn ddweud yr ardal... ..yna'n ddwell yn ddweud hynny, ond mae'n cymryd o'r eistedd. Mae'n ffeirio'n ddweud eich bwysig, ond mae yna'r ffaith... ..yna'r archifau, a'u ddweud i'r ddweud i'r ddweud... ..yna'n ddweud ym mfarn i'w ddweud y Ddweud... ..yna'r ddweud y pethau. Mae oeddech chi'n gweld ei brodwyr a chywb yn ymchwilcau cinnig i'r ddimarchu. Na byddwyd yn hi'n cymweld sydd Mae Helmut Colll yn ddod i gyntaf pethau i'r pethau a i'r ddimarchu. Doedd yn cael ei bod yn gweinio'u Ddimarch, yn ni'n z submit. Mae'n ddimarchu i'n ddimarchu i'n gysylltu lleol y maen nhw'n fi, a gan gweithio'r ddimarchu. Mae'n gweld eichOfnach o Gymdeithas Ymwylliant agor, Felly, mae'n gwneud o'r papurau, ac rydyn ni wedi cael ei wneud o'r cyffredinol yng Nghymru a'r Ffrengyrch. Mae'r Gweithio'r Unifodd yn cael Smyt a'r Cull yn cael Llywodraeth ar gyfer 1980. Mae'r Gweithio'r Unifodd yn cael Llywodraeth yn cael Llywodraeth yn cael Llywodraeth yn cael Llywodraeth yn cael Llywodraeth yn cael Llywodraeth yn cael Llywodraeth.  Mae'r cyfrannu wedi bod yn rhan o'r dynamiadau. Felly, ychydig i'r cyfrannu cyfrannu, y cyfrannu cyfrannu ar y cyfrannu ymdweithio'r cyfrannu cyfrannu e-mu yn ymddangos i'r cyfrannu yn y 1980. Felly, ychydig i'r ddodlaeth. Felly mae'n ffordd yw'r eurau yn ymdweithio'r cyfrannu yma yma'r ymdweithio'r cyfrannu ymddangos. Felly mae'n i'r cyfrannu ymdweithio fel y Llaethau Cymru i'w ddodlaeth cerddodd yn oed oedd y cyfrannu i ddodlaethu'r cyfrannu yma yn ymdweithio. Mae'n cyfrannu cyfrannu yw ddodlaeth. Felly, mae'n i'n i'n i'n i'ch gweithio'r cyfrannu yma. Mae'n i'n i'ch cyfrannu lliwyr. Mae'n i'ch cyfrannu lliwyr o'r maest ac yma'r cyfrannu lliwyr i'r cyfrannu cael ei wyrdd. Mae'n i'ch cyfrannu ingenioguron. Felly mae'n i'ch cyfrannu  slang to their bow. So it's a little bit like if you're air l LEGO. Sir British airways, you don't want to simply buy Boeing. There has to be a voice and you could say that the euro is the air bus to the. American Boeing so somebody would have to fulfil this role and I don't think that anybody thinks the. Eocaroyo is going to somehow components that are it's a kind of good number to reserve currency. Rwy'n credu bod yr unig oedd y rheswm y Chino a'r ffordd o'r rheswm ar y Chino. Mae hyn yn ddod, roedd am 5 o 7 miliwn dolygu o rheswm. Rwy'n credu bod yn dda'n meddwl mas o ddweud, ond rwy'n credu bod yn ddechrau'r chyflog. Felly mae hyn yn ddod i'n meddwl i'r gweithio.  Dwy'n cael y dywed o gymryd yn dweud yma ar y dyfodol, because they appear to the rest of the world to be very strong. They themselves think of themselves as being somewhat weak. They do have an economy which does seem to have traversed all the traviles of the last 10 years in very good working order. Felly, wrth gwrs, the Germans are never more anxious when things start to look as though they're going well, because there's this old saying, as you all know in German, that the light at the end of the tunnel is only the light of the approaching train. And so the Germans don't feel particularly well, even though they do look successful. It does seem, though, as though the Germans are throwing their weight around somewhat more than they did 20 years ago. So the old idea that you would somehow emasculate the demark and take over the Bundesbank and put it into that nice new institution, the ECB, in order to somehow throttle them and constrain their power, I never really felt that was going to work and it doesn't seem to have been fulfilled. So none of those four principal reasons, I would say, has been adequately fulfilled and some of them have been downright disappointments. Now what has happened? Again you need to split it up into three parts really. The first part of the euro's story, the whole idea of the one size fits all monetary policy is that manifestly one size won't always fit all. Therefore you will have periods when some countries which are prone to more inflation will have interest rates which are certainly too low for their economic position and countries which have less inflation and lower growth will have interest rates which are too high. And that was the case in the first five years of the euro. None of this at all was in any way surprising. And it was not only unsurprising, it was predictable and indeed it was predicted. Many people said that some countries will be using the opportunity of the euro as an opportunity simply to let rip to finance consumer booms, to finance speculative booms, to speculate on areas like property and so on. And that is exactly what did happen in many countries of the euro area. And the folly of the politicians in many cases was that they allowed this to happen without thinking someday the money and the luck will run out. This was, if you like, a gift, a dowry of the Germans that the other countries went into monetary union automatically the interest rates descended to a German level. And instead of using the low interest rates in a wise way to finance investment, to finance a decent education system to make their countries more competitive, they decided simply to go in a long drawn out binge. And that is certainly what happened in a certain number of southern countries and arguably that's what happened in Ireland as well particularly if you look at the property market. But you see many people were complicit in this. If I was the queen like she went to the London School of Economics a few years ago and asked in her rather plaintive high-pitched penetrating voice did anybody foresee the credit crisis? Nobody did. In the same way, nobody really foresaw the euro would really come unstuck quite to the extent that it did. And that was because everybody did seem to be profiting from this first five years when the interest rates across Europe all seemed miraculously to have descended to the German level. Everybody could seem to finance themselves in a new nivana. There seemed to be no pain at only gain. The politicians were very happy because even the financial markets, those blagards, those villains, the people that normally bring all the politicians' dreams tumbling down, even the financial markets seemed to buy into this idea that countries as far apart as Greece and Germany were properly convergent. The European Central Bank could hardly believe its luck because suddenly it had created a huge wad of risk-free paper. Government bonds, which seemed to be trading around Europe at the same price and in order to carry out monetary policy across a unified financial area, there's nothing better than to have this mass of collateral which is more or less priced at the same level. And because the financial market seemed to buy into this, the politicians also thought, well, we don't really need to do anything else. We've basically done our homework. We don't need to carry on with any greater reforms. Let's just live life as we've done it because the financial market seemed to be bought into our story. The politicians didn't realise that the financial markets do not take friends, they do not have feelings, they do not support or not support any particular policy. The financial markets are simply out there to make money. And a lot of people on the financial market have made a lot of money by buying Greek bonds and driving the prices up to the same levels as the Germans that the same people now turned into raskily speculators have been making a lot of money by selling Greek bonds in the last three or four years. So this was just a financial market phenomenon, a bubble which was on the way to being formed and which had inevitably to burst. You then move into the second phase. Why did it burst? Why didn't it go on? And then you come into the credit crisis which did have its seeds, of course in America, which burst upon the shores of Europe in 2007. And of course that then sent every nation in Europe into a tailspin because there was a contraction of world trade and every nation in Europe seemed to be affected by that. The German economy went down by 5% in 2009, the Italian economy went down by 5%, the British economy went down by 5% even though we're not part of the euro. And so you could say that at that time we still were in a pattern of some convergence. The music had started to change and above all I would say the key had changed because suddenly the financial markets which had been extremely compliant and extremely complacent and seemed to be buying into the convergence idea, they suddenly became much more risk averse and therefore risk in countries' borrowings, risk in the government bonds that different countries issue, suddenly started to become more of a factor than it had done before, just in the same way as the American Bank had started to look at the credit standing of a couple who might have bought a house in Newmont. They suddenly started looking at the credit standing of a government like Greece which had started to issue bonds and suddenly noticed the credit standing of that Greek government wasn't anything like as good as the French or the Dutch government. So you had an increase in risk aversion by the banks and the other lenders and then you also had the spectre of the Germans coming out of recession more quickly and more vigorously than anybody else. You see because hidden by that apparent convergence in the first five or six years the Germans actually rather secretly you might say although it was fully open to people who read the Financial Times and other such organs had been repairing their house not in a great grandiose way because the Germans don't really go in for things like that these days and not so much because of the government. Schwerder, I think, did do the right thing. He did preside over a government which did allow the companies, particularly the Mittelstands, the family-owned enterprises to repair their lagging competitiveness. They also reformed labour markets to a certain extent although nothing like in the direction of Reganesk or Thatcheresque Hire and Fire but they did make labour markets more flexible and they allowed labour costs to fall compared with the other countries in Europe whose economies had been allowed to get out of control in a positive direction and had too many costs built into them. So that was really not taken on board at all by the financial markets, the fact that the Germans had been reducing their costs. Also a great period of industrial rejuvenation. Lot of you have seen the German company heads over the years. Normally they are elderly gentlemen with a certain respectability with hardly any hair and now the people running German companies if you haven't become a German company manager by the age of 39, you really have passed it. You should go and do something else. There's been a huge rejuvenation of German company management and I would say huge professionalisation. All that went across fairly unnoticed with the effect that the Germans were quickness out of recession and this led to I think a re-pricing of country's debt on the markets of much less forgiving atmosphere and then suddenly we have markets going into a reversal of what has happened before. So suddenly the interest rates start to rise on the bonds issued by Greece or Spain or Portugal, famous spreads start to increase and suddenly then we go into reverse of the position that we had before and it's been a credit boom that has been unveiled as a bubble and which has now been burst. That, if you like, is the story of the two speed Europe which is now emerging. Now who would I blame for all this? Well I would blame of course the politicians because you see if this was a political project and it's always said that indeed that was what it was then the politicians should have been alive to what was going on and there should have been more political checks and balances built into systems there should have been more counter-cyclical fiscal policy, you might say to counter somewhat too easy monetary policy but I would go much further than that. I would also say the ECB was complicit. There's been many many cases and some of them are chronical in the updated version of my book where the ECB fell into this trap of complacency. Mr Fanfwmpwi, who I think was here the other day he made this somewhat incautious remark a next colleague of mine on the Financial Times he said we fell under a narcotic spell well if I was a politician I wouldn't actually use language like that I certainly wouldn't allow any journalist to write it down but anyway he said it and that's what it was it was a narcotic spell but you see the ECB also fell under the narcotic spell as I said earlier they could hardly believe their good fortune and so the European Central Bank wrote loads and loads of scripts basically saluting this great convergence which seemed to have come along. There's a particular report of bulletin which they did in August 2007 so less than four years ago where in their technocratic way the European Central Bank was casting its eye around looking at all the really infamous examples of countries around the world which were living beyond their means and castigating the Americans or the Chinese or the Japanese some were living beyond their means and according to their means some had deficits which were too high and some had surpluses which were too high 6% was the American current account deficit at that time and in this 12 page article about current account abundances around the world which the ECB said is going to be the source of great calamity and upheaval in the world economy not once did they mention that within the monetary union itself you had Greece running a current account deficit of 10% of GDP the Spanish with 9% and the Portuguese with 8% that was all just not even mentioned and the reason was because you had monetary union and within the monetary union these things automatically balance and therefore you don't have to worry about it this was a huge failure of competence a failure of imagination a failure of governance that the ECB fell into that narcotic spell and of course they do admit it now that they say we didn't pay enough attention to the underlying imbalances in countries economies this has nothing to do with the budget deficit of Greece which was only later revealed to have been fraudulently manipulated that's another story altogether although it's really linked to it this was the current account deficit so that's really the difference between what a country earns in its exports visible and invisible goods and what it has to pay out for imports and that was clearly known that Europeans had just been a little bit more alive to what was going on in the rest of the world they would have noticed that in Asia in the 1990s a number of Asian countries had been linked by a currency peg nothing like so formalistic as monetary union from which there is proverbably proverbably no escape they had a currency peg under which they were fixing their currencies to the dollar and the Asian countries in the 1990s they also ran up large current account deficits but the current account deficits on the whole were half as large and went on for only half the time as the massive imbalances that had been built up in monetary union since it started in 1999 so again it was really not a surprise but this big difference in the country's creditor positions and debtor positions would suddenly strike home and become a real obstacle and again there was a failure of imagination a failure of analysis here I would point my finger at the Germans I don't point my finger at the Germans for being better than other people I mean that is their won't and there's nothing wrong with being competitive there's nothing wrong with matching up to the best countries in the world but I do blame the Germans for this self-righteousness which says that if they have a surplus which is their right to do so by doing better than other countries might do I do blame them for not seeing part to their surplus somebody else's deficit somewhere else in Europe and that deficit needs to be financed so there was a failure of what you might call holistic thinking on the part of the Germans they thought they could just sail on chalking up large surpluses current account surpluses year by year by doing better than anybody else not realising they were obviously by definition building up claims on other countries quite a few of them would be in southern Europe and therefore the deficits of the southern European countries were automatically showing up as claims by German banks or German bondholders on those countries and those deficits, those liabilities would have to be settled one day and liabilities and claims do not always match perfectly because even if you can't change the currency sometimes the creditors demand a change in interest rates and that is exactly what happened so it's a complete classic case of when credit and debit falls out of balance I'll just elaborate just slightly on this the Greeks went into monetary unit as did the Portuguese with net debts more or less of zero their net foreign assets were more or less balanced out by their net liabilities after 10 years of running up a current account deficit of 10% a year for 10 years you don't need to be a Nobel prize winner to work out they will then have a net foreign debt of 100% of GDP which becomes progressively less easy to finance at the same interest rates as Germany I mean it's fairly obvious stuff and yet everybody seems to be surprised when this bubble burst now I do know that various people did point out that there were bubbles for me I know because I was one of them I do remember assailing a Jean-Claude Trichet at one conference I think it was about history a history conference in Portugal I said Jean-Claude what's all this about the credit bubbles up in Europe what have you got to say about that I was really like the ugly fairy that turns up uninvited at the baptismal feast of the young princess it was not really a very polite thing to say and yet people clearly should have said that if you talk to Jean-Claude Trichet now of course he would say well of course I did go around I made all those representations at the famous euro group I had my coloured charts countries which had lost competitiveness labour costs I showed those to the finance ministers do you know they didn't pay any attention the point is if you talk to finance ministers trying to change their mind and do things which are unpopular in their country you've got to do a little bit better than just show them coloured charts every month and therefore I do actually blame the ECB for part of this malaise that has now come about now just scrolling forward very quickly what is going to happen next if this is a long running mystery play and it is and if this is a Shakespearean tragedy which again it is then it's going to take still some world before we get to the denouement we're still only probably an act to scene one or two it's going to be a long long time before we actually get to the final scene where bodies are on the stage and the curtain falls but there will be bodies on the stage but it will be a who done it we won't quite know who plunged in the dagger and I'm pretty sure that the Germans will do everything they can to make sure that their fingerprints are not on this dagger because if there's one prediction that I would make it is that a country like Greece will have to leave sooner or later but it will be a sovereign Greek decision it will not be because the Germans or anybody else have told them to leave will have to be done on a perception of what Greece's best interests are I cannot say when that will happen but I think it will not happen as a result of any kind of dictate it will have to be done as part of a sovereign decision but it goes without saying that the gaps now in Europe are still very large and above all they are cultural and sociological and psychological gaps between the culture of the creditor and the culture of the debtor with both sides building up very large imbalances vis-à-vis each other and also the European stability mechanism all those different things we can talk about those afterwards if you'd like to but it's quite clear there's now an emerging gulf between the people who are owed money and the people who owe money and both sides for good reasons good legitimate reasons feel equally resentful the countries which are giving the money feel that the countries which are owing the money are increasingly less grateful for this and also the creditors have less and less certainty that they will be repaid and of course they won't be repaid because creditors never get repaid you always have to accept there's going to be some write downs and the countries which of course are being lent the money and Ireland is now in that case those countries do feel increasingly embitted because they feel that the conditions that are being applied to those loans are increasingly onerous and are driving them even tighter into a spectre of debt deflation whereby the real level of the debt becomes greater every year they are not inflating away the debt is just the very opposite so I think that's the most dangerous gangrene that's really biting into Europe right now and how to escape that spiral something which we might discuss just the final two words one on Ireland and then the other how to analyse this situation in a way which might be helpful and these two things are linked now I do think that Ireland is sui generis for all the historical cultural reasons that we know about I do think that Ireland has got its retaliation in early by recognising the crisis before other countries did in southern Europe and actually starting in this process what you might call internal devaluation they realise you can't devalu devalu the Irish punt because it doesn't exist any longer and also the euro is not going to decline against the dollar in a very significant way because the Germans and the other creditors at nations don't want it so the Irish have done the right thing they've analysed the situation they've realised that they've got themselves into a mess above all because of the banks and because the private debts have now become the public debts through the mechanism that you will know so the Irish have been sui generis they've done the right thing they've taken their medicine they're still only probably less than halfway through all the medicine that needs to be taken but the Irish I think have got a very good chance of staying the course coming out of this as members of the new euro which will be quite a hard quite a steagly currency it's up to the Irish whether they do carry on on that road I think the other northern creditors would like the Irish to stay the course and be part of this they're not going to show any particular favouritism to the Irish but I think the Irish do have it in them to stay the course and that's partly a question of pride but also those patients the Irish people do have a certain amount of patience which is not totally inexhaustible I think after a certain amount of time it's absolutely legitimate in going to Brussels and saying we are paying over the odds for this money I don't think you can do it yet I think you need another six months or maybe a year of taking it on the chin and building up a track record and paying every debt on time and filling in every tracker report on time and doing everything totally by the board and then particularly if you can go to Brussels with a lot of allies and I understand the new government is thinking about where are its allies in Europe and who is it going to go in shoulder to shoulder with when it comes to real bruising negotiation with the Germans and the other creditors you need to go into Brussels with a really well thought out plan and I would actually talk to the Swedes and the Danes outside the euro as well because they are every bit as important as the creditor countries within the monetary union I'm not trying to encourage Ireland to somehow achieve an even greater gulf than there is already by separating the euro up into the non-euro members and the euro members but the Swedes and the Danes are really very good countries with whom one might forge some common alliance here the second point is that I think this great story of what went wrong how this dream has been subverted and how the political ambition has been turned into dust in a very bitter way and the way that we won't have political union worthy of the name amongst enough countries to make this something meaningful all these great hopes have been dismantled I think it is worthy of some thorough analysis and therefore I know there's a great number of books and articles and all sorts of scholarly dissertations have been written in Ireland about this and I think it's to the tribute of the Irish people that they have done this because I don't notice the same thing happening in Greece for instance but I do think this spirit of inquiry needs to be widened not in a finger pointing way but in a way which does try to show how this project has gone wrong because it has gone very very wrong indeed and you do have to overcome the hubris of the European elites in whose name this project was forged and you do need to try to find out where the mistakes were made and therefore I think something almost like a South African Truth and Reconciliation Commission is needed on a European wide scale you'll probably be a distinguished Irish ex-diflamatal lawyer who would be in charge of this but it would be a properly put together and properly empowered commission and you'd have to decide when to ask this commission to start work and whether now is the right time I really do not know but I think it does need to be done at some stage and this commission does need to have the power to arrain witnesses it has to have the power to intercept emails it has to have the power to go to the European Central Bank and say look I'm terribly sorry I know you've got a lot to do but we'd actually like to look at the documents and if you don't let us we'll come back tomorrow with a police escort to do it I really do think that you do need to look at what went wrong here in the nicest possible way of course and so that is my suggestion I'm not saying this has to be done now but I do think that is necessary because many dreams have been shattered many ordinary people's lives who are totally blameless in this because they just believe what the politicians told them many ordinary people's lives have been very damaged by this not just in Ireland but in other countries as well so I do think a proper spirit of enquiry would not just serve the hunger for facts and hunger for intrigue of scholarly people such as ourselves but would produce some sort of healing for what has been a very damaged project thank you very much indeed


We are at a tipping point. It is different right now. The population we deal with is ever changing. There is more people in mental crisis. I see more addiction. Assaults with weapons, guns and knives.  We've had robberies. Dealing with this lawlessness in this Elmwood corridor is tearing at the fabric and the foundation of all this growth and excitement that we see. And we've got to affect some change and we're doing that.