Netflix. Boom, boom.  Corbin Miles. And this is Rick Seagull. Boom, boom. Today, we'll be reacting to a very requested then this will be the first, I believe it's a show, a series on Netflix. So we. Wait a minute. Netflix coming out with a new series? Yeah. What a shock. Yeah. They don't put out any original content. But we've got a lot of requests for it. Apparently, it's really good. We've never reacted to an India TV show or web series or anything. No. So let's see what happens. Let us know if there are other ones we should be reacting to. Please let us know in the comment section below. Yeah, like, hey, we're not commercials, too. Got any great commercials we could see and laugh at? They do, actually. Do they? They've recommended it. So we'll do that year after. All right, maybe we'll do that, too. What? Listen to me. I'm going to change you for the next few days. I'm going to change myself. He's been on the phone for two days. I've been asking him this, too. Last. He said that everything would die. They were sending the same person to India again. It's just friendship over. That's good. We've been signed a code. I'm going to use the time. What? impact seems to be a bit of a halftime. How do you know about your dad? This is the beauty of this city. Anything can happen in this city. You can have a collection with this currency. I need it all. Thank you. Last year, I don't know how many... It's a story of betrayal, glamour, and grit that's set against the ever-changing backdrop of Mumbai. It looks really good. Yeah, it looks really good. It looks gritty. It looks raw. So, please let us know what you thought of down in the comment section below. But, yeah, I'd be down if it's something like we could watch each episode and do a reaction to each episode. Yeah, if it's worth it. Let us know if it's worth it. Is it worth that? I don't know. Is this like a big hit series for y'all and you're running this thing? Yeah, please let us know. I don't know. We don't know.  We're stupid, hence the title of the channel. Freakin' dumb.  Stay for the stupidity. Enjoy the juicy content.


Now, where does all this lead to? Does it really make economic sense? That is what the next few slides will tell you. So, here are the three contenders, you have a luxury car, this is a CLO which was at that time money luxury car but now it is not available, Devu was the company which made this car. And then you have this skyship section red B and then you have Tata Sumo. So, when you do a cost benefit analysis in transportation, essentially what you do is you look at the various costs and the various benefits. And you try to get a monetary value of the benefit, remove it from the costs. The net cost can then be compared. Now what you do is you convert everything into monetary units, it is not very easy. Things like cost of fuel, the charges to be paid to the driver, etc., you can work out. But how do you look at things like, you have saved so many hours, what is the money equivalent of that? This is called as value of travel time saving, value of travel time. Now, value of travel time is a huge research area in transportation. Let us say if I ask you, what would be the value of 1 hour reduction in your travel time when you go from a place to another place? Let us say you are doing this yatra or if we do not go to this yatra because many of you might say I do not want to do this yatra, why are you making me do this yatra? Let us say from wherever your hometown is to IIT Bombay, you travel today by motor transport, say train. It costs so much. Suppose I give you some other alternative which saves you 3 hours of time. So let us say the journey is 10 hours and you reach there 3 hours early. What would you put as the value of the saving? In short, what is the value of 3 hours of your travel time? So think about it and I want a number from you. So how many rupees is the value of my travel time? I also want you to think and tell me on what factors does this number depend? First of all, will it be the same number for you and for me? It may not be. So what does it depend on? Why will it be less for me and more for you or vice versa? So does somebody have any number? How many rupees per hour? Yes, let us get the number, yeah let us have a number, 1000 rupees per hour. On what basis do you get this number? So but how do you say 1000, why not 500, why not 1500. So that means what you are saying is 1000 rupees is the ballpark, so 500 is less and 100 is more. Once you fix the number then you can say more or less, but how do you get this number? If you feel it can also be 2 rupees per hour, there has to be some way of giving the logic. If you cannot have the number, tell me on what basis will this number depend? So what do you do with this 3 hours saved? So as you said, these 3 hours I will give it more to my family. So he has valued as 1000 rupees per hour. That is a questionable thing, we do not know, it could be too high, too less. But one thing is what do you do with that time?  So many of us take an indirect journey, we take a flight ticket, we go to Mumbai to Bangalore. We say direct flight, Mumbai to Delhi is an example, you take a direct flight, it costs so much. There is another flight which is via some city 2 hour halt and it is much lower, you will say, what is the difference, no problem, how does it make a big difference for me? Because that money saving is more important to you than reaching in 2 hours. Suppose it takes 4 hours to go to Delhi, instead of 2 hours, it should not be a big deal unless you have something so important there that even 2 hours you cannot wait, correct. So there is a huge body of research on value of travel time savings. It is different for air travel, it is different for pedestrian travel, it is different for road travel, bus travel, when you design a metro in a city, for example, we have this metro which connects from Ghatkopar to Varsova. So how many people will travel from that particular place to that particular place? Today they travel via Andheri and then take an auto, how much will they save? One important aspect is what will be the time saving, then you look at comfort, you look at connectivity. So whatever method you use, that is a matter of debate and there is a huge, I mean when I teach air transportation I take 2 classes on only VOT estimation. So we will discuss about it offline. But it is important that this value of travel time saving should be considered to get a proper comparison. So now let us look at the assumptions that we made in this study because these assumptions will have to be considered by you. So first thing is that this analysis is specific to only Chargam Yatra. You cannot use it for number to Shirdi kind of a travel also, no that is a different market and a different analysis is there for that. For Chargam Yatra which happens only from May to November but the airship and the vehicles that are purchased, they will not remain idle from December to May. Maybe in December you will have a maintenance, one month maintenance but January, February, March, April you will not say no, no there is no passenger coming so just keep sitting. Nobody can keep or afford to keep transportation systems idling. So we assume that they will be off season will be used in some other areas. For example January to March or April it could be the Golden Triangle Circuit, Jaipur, Jodhpur, Delhi that area, lot of people come. So we are not assuming that the total cost will be recovered only on these months. As I mentioned distance to travel by road is 7 days because you are going to travel around 200 kilometres per day which is a lot in hills actually. A typical average speed in a hilly area I have travelled myself extensively in at least in the Kumam area is not more than 30 kilometres per hour that is the average you get if you do not stop but after every 3 hours you would like to stop for a cup of tea for a snack or just to rest just to stretch your limbs. So practically it only comes to 20, 25 kilometres per hour so 200 kilometres per hour means 10 hours in a day you are travelling on the road that is a lot but that is the upper limit. Now basically we are competing now between airship and luxury car because travel by airships will not come very cheap it will be expensive. So it is, so who are the people who will take it? People who are hiring a luxury car today for that particular route and then in between we bring in also SUV or Tata Sumo this is what common people will take. So as I said no existing airship can do this route so we make an assumption that an enhanced version of skyship 600 with 13 seats unfortunately we do not at this point of time at that point of time sorry this was done in 2002 so at that point of time we did not have so much knowledge about airships nobody at that time at least none of us at that time knew what it will cost to make an airship to meet this requirement so we had to make some assumptions one can challenge them today we are in a much better condition. So if we are transporting 130 people per day and each airship can take 13 people that 10 airships required to meet and each airship will come with the ground support equipment and 200 hours per month is what we fly the airship 25 days so we do not fly every day we leave few days for bad weather or break and 8 hours a day is what you can do it in 7 hours so it is 8 hours a day the total time okay the cost benefit analysis was done for 8 years so we assume that the airship life is 1800 hours so after 8 years you know the airship is now going to be completely depreciated right now regarding infrastructure we said okay let us invest 5 crore rupees in building a hangar at Haridwar and for every airship apart from the initial cost there will be 2.25 crores for the support equipment the mast etc these numbers are not assumption these have come from actual quotation so today one might say 5 crores is too less for building a hangar okay but at that time we made some enquiries and got this number for building a hangar of the size that an airship 600 needs similarly depreciation of 10% and to buy these airships one has to take a loan and that loan will not come free so we assume 15% interest on reducing balance for taking that particular loan okay then this was the cost side now the benefits or the income side so we are assuming that this company which operates airships would definitely like to operate with a 10% profit nothing wrong in that because this profit is what is the attraction to the investor and a part of it will be invested back in the business right so airship is going to fly with a huge envelope much bigger than cars or trucks so you can paint it with something we assume that you can charge this amount per day for revenue towards advertisement then by some calculation procedure we got the value of travel time as rupees 145 per hour as against 1000 hours of my friend the travel time benefit was considered to be only 145 rupees per hour and therefore the intangible benefit per person per trip is going to be 1 rupees 7000 luxury car so 3 people in the car plus driver okay 40 cars per day hence 280 cars per week and 4 trips a month because each trip takes 11 days so you can do cyclically and you will be able to do this way now at that time the fuel cost per kilometer was worked out to 6.5 rupees per kilometer and plane area was 5 rupees per kilometer and we gave driver rupees 200 per day plus we got some revenue from rentals also similarly now here you can put more people okay so we travel regularly with the Innova and we go 6-7 people so it becomes tight with 6 people but in hills in hills you will find that people travel in these vehicles with approximately 8 people in the vehicle so we took 7 people okay so 18 vehicles per day 106 vehicles per week 4 trips a month fuel costs are lower per person per kilometer fuel costs are much lower and driver also gets less money revenue also is lower so this is the general map for doing the cost benefit analysis so the costs are the cost of the airship and then the operating cost and then the cost of the infrastructure the benefits or the income will be the air-reducement travel comfort hence some premium savings in time hence value of travel time of seasonal revenue when you apply it to some other place and revenue from operation or the fare that we charge so you take these numbers take them projected to a particular year and then you can get the comparison so this is the actual data which we got from the US airship size of 600 B this is in US dollars so the cost of the airship was 5 million utilization pilots ground crew insurance fuel maintenance support ticketing depreciation blah blah blah blah blah it comes to the fare comes to 2.3 dollars per kilometer so when you operate this airship in an american scenario the with 10 percent with 10 percent profit it will cost the operator 2 dollars and 30 cents per kilometer okay now now we bring it down to the Indian conditions so the cost is the same 5 million dollars but converted into lakhs utilization also is very similar so at some places looking at the cost of manpower etc in India again we got the fare of rupees 36.9 or 37 rupees per kilometer so per kilometer travel per passenger you have to pay 40 bucks if you travel by airship okay so then this is the initial data about the airships okay I have already mentioned to you a few numbers like the number of the capacity then consumption of fuel 6 million 1 million more because this is going to be further improved upon the basic airship is 5 million but the enhanced airship is 6 million because there are enhancements to allow it to operate at higher altitude okay then here is the breakdown of the annual operating costs I will not spend too much time these are numbers which you can see at leisure we have spreadsheets which contain all these calculations look at the DOC per seat per trip so in a in an SUV or in a public transportation system you are going to have you know something like now this is in 1000 US dollars so if I multiply this by 1000 I get 36.7 so a passenger pays around 36 or 37 dollars for a trip with without any profit etc this is the karcha or the expenditure that is done on the airship luxury car 113 dollars more than what is spent because there are 7 people there are 6 3 people here so the operating costs are divided by 3 and by 7 there for the airship it is going to be 712 dollars 711.9 so you will spend a lot of money but if you look at the revenue if you look at the investment etc you find that to break even in the SUV you require just 8 years so somebody puts money buys SUVs runs this business everything goes well in 8 years you require the full money assuming very little profit for luxury car you need 18 years for airship you need 14.61 years but in this analysis this is purely and purely on the basis of the no benefit for travel time and no advertisement etc basic okay so this is in lakh rupees so if I change the numbers slightly and if I bring in little bit of other numbers it so happens that you can break even in just 3 years instead of the 8 years this is this particular graph comes with the additional revenue with luxury car you need one more year with airship you can do it in the first year itself because you can earn a lot of money in airships with other facilities like advertisement on the balloon and you can charge a premium for travel time saving and comfort okay so if you look at the net present value comparison now what is the net present value the investment happens over years you have to bring it back to today keeping in mind the possible inflation okay that is called as NPV on that present value so for total sumo the costs are very low the benefits are also not very high but there are more than the costs for luxury car it is a larger number for airships there is a very very huge cost but also a very huge benefit okay so summing up the numbers in rupees so the fare that you will pay per per passenger in Tata sumo is around 3750 rupees luxury car 10000 airships 17000 rupees okay and if I assume that 7000 rupees per trip I am happy to pay for the comfort and the time saving you are becoming equivalent to a luxury car okay so then we did some sensitivity analysis what happens suppose we say no revenue from advertisement and intangibles are less then the airships will take much much more year eight years for you to recover okay so basically what it means is that the investment required when you want to operate airships is very high so it is 250 times higher than compared to the SUVs and 35 times higher than compared to luxury car so that means you need very deep pockets to take this risk okay but if you include value of travel time there can be a very very strong argument so if 100 us dollars 6000 rupees per day is what you value as one day then airships become attractive additional revenue can be also obtained using advertisement and product promotion and the breakeven point whether it is one year or eight years or six years is a very strong function of the assumptions obviously so do not get swayed by one year and eight years and all that as I said these numbers can change drastically with the change in the assumptions basic point is that investment may be needed of a high magnitude but the returns are also of very high magnitude so therefore a risk taker can invest and SUV needs the least time to break even but also the revenues are very less so SUV investment and SUV is the most conservative option investment in the airship will be a very very bold option okay so in conclusion for Charzham Yatra assuming that an airship can be made by improving something like skyship 600 B to handle the altitudes a very big assumption then it is feasible okay payback can come in the first year only for the airships and third year for the Tata sumo and fourth year in luxury car this is assuming that you earn a good amount of revenue from advertisement and if you assume that there is no revenue from advertisement and if you assume 90 rupees per hour only as the value of travel taking time it takes eight years for you to recover so in a transportation system especially when the investment comes in a large part from the government or from some other some other investor if the recovery of your revenue in the worst case scenario happens in eight years and in the best case scenario in one year it is a very good case for investment okay so this particular study was presented by me to Dr. Kalam when I met him in the year 2001 in fact I am wrong the study was done in the year 2000 and in 2001 we got the data and in 2001 March I had gone to New Delhi with Professor Sane who was that time working in our department we both met Dr. Kalam because we were proposing a project for study of use of airships in Uttaranchal so this is the case study I presented and at many places it got presented the numbers of course can be questioned I am not saying that I would put my 1 rupee or 100 rupee in this venture based on these numbers but we did this study essentially to satisfy ourselves whether this is a area worth getting into or not the common perception people have airships are very expensive they will be you know you will take so many years you will never be able to recover so those numbers of course we have answered okay


And next we'll talk about renal cysts. So the Bosnian classification was updated in 2019 in which they made it a little bit more specific on what they mean by thick and thin septations and how many septations is too many. For Bosnian one lesions, they should be well-defined, thin smooth wall, homogeneous simple fluid and no septational calcification. And the wall may enhance especially on MRI because we can see the wall better than perhaps on CT. With Bosnian two, they subclassified it into six subtypes and they get our cystic masses within a few septations. They can have calcifications. You also have your proteinaceous cyst that are intrinsically hyperdense on non-con. And they can be homogeneous non-enhancing masses that's more than 20 house units on post-contrast images and also some low attenuation masses that are too small to characterize. So some examples for Bosnian two lesions, you have a few thin septations that have some mural calcifications. That's okay for Bosnian two. And in this example is intrinsically bright lesion that does not enhance. So that is a proteinaceous cyst, also a Bosnian two. A Bosnian two F, then you have, the septations can be a little bit thickened or they have minimal thickening of one or more enhancing septa or many smooth thin septations. So something like this would fall into Bosnian two F in which you can, you have more than four very thin septations. Bosnian three, then you get to have thicker internal septations or you can have mural nodules that are obtusely marginate. So these are examples of Bosnian three. By the time you get to Bosnian four, then you have enhancing mural nodules that are very suspicious for RCC. And this paper by Dr. Silverman in radiology 2019 has this nice chart that really summarizes and help you sink into your mind what they mean by the thickness of the septations and how much is too thick. And also the mural nodules, the distinction between convex and concave borders.


Hello and welcome to the session. Let us discuss the following question. It says find the derivative of the following function. The given function is secant x minus 1 upon secant x plus 1. To find the derivative of this function, we'll be using quotient rule. It says derivative of the function u by v with respect to x is given by v into du by dx minus u into dv by dx upon v square. So this knowledge will work as key ideal. Let us now move on to the solution. We have to find the derivative of function secant x minus 1 upon secant x plus 1. Now, we'll find the derivative of this function using quotient rule. So for convenience, let u be equal to secant x minus 1 and v be equal to secant x plus 1. Now, we find the derivative of this function by the quotient rule v into du by dx minus u into dv by dx. Let us now substitute the values of u and v in this.  Now this is equal to secant x plus 1 into d by dx of secant x minus 1. Now the derivative of secant x is secant x into tan x and the derivative of 1 is 0 minus secant x minus 1 into dy dx of secant x plus 1. Now the derivative of secant x is secant x into tan x and the derivative of 1 is 0 upon secant x plus 1 whole square. Again, this is equal to secant x into secant x into tan x is secant square x into tan x plus 1 into secant x into tan x is secant x into tan x minus secant x into secant x into tan x is secant square x into tan x minus 1 into secant x into tan x is minus secant x into tan x upon x plus 1 whole square. Again, this is equal to secant square x into tan x plus secant x into tan x opening the brackets It becomes minus secant square x into tan x plus secant x into tan x upon secant x plus 1 whole square. Now secant square x into tan x gets cancelled with minus secant square x into tan x and we have secant x into tan x plus secant x into tan x is 2 secant x tan x upon secant x plus 1 whole square. Hence, the derivative of the given function is 2 secant x into tan x upon secant x plus 1 whole square. And this completes the question. Bye for now. Take care. Have a good day.


I don't think it's worth it, but anyway, it's It's this last one here we go This is a celebration of gaming right it has to be the biggest thing ever right? It needs to be okay. We're back at the original place. Oh This is where everyone is Except every characters here Is it where it all started and this is where it's all ending? Oh, I got goosebumps the fire just faded Okay, it's dark There's a flame Mario sees the flame that vanishing animation looks Okay, heart fire He came back to life darkness It's the only light in the darkness He grabs the flame My god, no way. Oh, oh my god There's no Sora's in it. He's finally put Sora in it No way and that everyone's back to life and the sparklies Sora has entered Nintendo world. Look at everyone. Oh My god. Oh, it's so beautiful. Bara's here Oh Hearts joins the battle Sora his name is Sora Sakurai. It's all coming together.   This is amazing


The following is a presentation of TFNN. Trade what you see with Larry Pezzavento. Toe free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER>. Now, Larry Pezzavento. Okay, folks, we're gonna run over some charts here. This is the Dow Jones on a 13 minute. There was a high yesterday at 38,000. We were on the air. As you can see, when that happened, just a fact is we came off the air. It finally started to go down. We dropped well over 700 points into Dow from 650 points from high to low. S&P dropped 80 handles. Now, people have asked me, am I sure that that's a, folks, I'm not sure of anything. All I do is try to read these charts. The fact that we broke down, you'll notice the overnight low here, high was at 382. Then the report came out on jobs. Market rallied up here. Couldn't quite make the 61. We did it in the NASDAQ, but we didn't do it in the S&P. S&P went to the 50%. Now we've come here. What I'm assuming here, and this is how I'll try to make a decision whether this is gonna be a major high. The only way this can really be a major high, folks, and this is only the second day down and we're not even down. We're up, we bounce from the bottom, but okay, let's just try to get this up here so we can see it real easy. We'll draw in the ABCD. There we go, there's your AB leg, there's your CD leg here. When we get below 37,000 in the Dow, we're 37,500. That's 500 points from where we are right now. That's going to mean that we're down 900 points from behind, and I don't know how long it's gonna take to get there if we do, but that's gonna tell us that's gonna be the first sign. Yep, the trend has possibly changed, okay? Now, one of my favorite books I've mentioned to you many times has been My Own Story by Bernard Baruch, and he was talking to Fannie Bryce. It wasn't to Marlena D. Crick, it was Fannie Bryce, and she asked him, how do you make money in the stock market? And he said, you buy low and you sell high, and she said, how do I do that? He says, do you have 40 years? Of course, she smiled. She says, no, I don't. But he said to her, the stock market exists for one reason. They inflate prices to a very high level, and people will buy it all the way down. I don't know if that's the case or not, but look how many people were bullish here, and look what happened there. So all I'm doing is just looking at the patterns, all right? All right, let's just take a couple of look at some of the things we were watching today. Okay, you'll know that we were long to go, let's get the gold market up here. We've been long the gold here. We bought the gold here yesterday, well, a little bit lower than that, where was it here? We bought the gold right here, and we took profits right up in here, what this level right here, we made about 1,000 bucks. That was a really nice one. The one that was really interesting, and people question, say, you can't believe this is going to happen because of what's going on in the Red Sea, and all that stuff. This is the last five days, remember, now this is when the Red Sea came out and said, this is what we're looking at. But look, you got your ABCD pattern here, ABCD. There's where we exited the long. We bought that down here at the 382 folks, and what we did today was look to buy it at the 61% retracement of this low right here at 72.44. The low was exactly 72.44 to the tick. And of course, we put our order in to buy it at 72.44.88, anywhere near 42.50 is good. We had a nice rally. You can see, but look at this. Here's the hard part of trading, folks. You buy it here, and at this spot right here, you've got a $1,600 profit. Now, I can't relate this to everybody, and I'm not gonna say every time I get out at that point, but when I was looking at that, I said, okay, what was the rally high back here? All right, pull it down, and where did it stop at the 50% level right here? There was a 61.78. If it had got there, I probably would have got out of it, but I did not. I left my order in, and I had sent through this whole thing. Now, what I've done now is I've moved my stop just below here, because if that gets hit, I'm gonna lock at least $600 in. I've already given back 1,000, which I'm not happy about, but I can't do everything. I hardly ever do anything. Anyway, that's the way I'm handling it. People ask me that question, and I can't do the mini trades and stuff like that. What I like to do is buy things and hold them for four or five days. If I can't, much like we did in the cattle. Here, there was another problem that I had in the cattle yesterday, and we have a pig report tomorrow, folks. By the way, our guest today will be Rich Anderson. Here's the problem that I did yesterday, and I should have made really post-taste to this. This was just interday yesterday. I'm looking to buy it right here, which is the 382 and the whole move, right there, at 67.70. What I didn't see, because I'm doing so many other things, is you go from your A-B leg down to your C-D leg, you make an absolute perfect A-B, C-D, and I've got my order to buy right here. Now, I didn't see this till after the time was up, but then look at this, it rallies another 1,000 bucks. But that, those kind of make me silly, because see, what I wanted to do, is I was trying to buy it at this level right there. See that, and you see the difference between that? That was 100 bucks, and look what we've done now. Now, we got a report coming out tomorrow in the hogs, which is gonna be interesting. The fact that we had a high here, we backed off a couple cents, so that tells us a little bit of selling up here. So maybe, maybe, just maybe, we're gonna get a chance tomorrow with a really negative crop report in the pigs to get down here about another two cents, and I wanna be watching to possibly buy the cattle here at 67.80, 1.67.80, because that looks like a really good pattern. And as you recall, looking at this on the daily, we had everything that we wanted to see, and now we're back in this area. So we're looking to buy a 382 retracement of this move here after the cattle report tomorrow, and we will be on tomorrow when the cattle report is out. It comes out, let me see. Just about now, tomorrow, so we'll be watching that one very, very closely. I covered the gold. Here is an interesting one that, oh, someone's asking about the NASDAQ. Let me get that up here. Only take me a second, folks. Oh, we should do NASDAQ, and since we're gonna do that, we should do the Russell because they're all interrelated, that's for sure. Okay, here's the NASDAQ, and we're gonna get a 15 minute up here. I know it went above the 61% retracement on the NASDAQ. Here's the range yesterday. The NASDAQ had a pretty big drop. We went from 1708. Now we dropped 300 some handles, folks, right down 350 points, and you'll notice we did go above the 61% retracement today. Not by much, and we didn't stay there very long. You see, we went up here, and there's where we are now. We've got lower tops in here. So the key is, because we had this low here, we're still up on the day. So it's trying to hold. Look how many, we've been here for hour at the 61% retracement. We start getting below here. That's gonna be a negative sign for the longs, would be what I would be watching. So anything making new lows below here, which would be down about another 30 handles in the NASDAQ, then I would say yes, that's probably what's going to be moving along from that level. Now I've been asked to take a look at the natural gas. So we'll get over here and take a quick look at this. Here's where we are at natural gas. There's the 382 in the long-term daily, folks. Look how many times we've been here. We're gonna cover this when we get back. This is important to really watch. So let's stay with us.<PHONE_NUMBER>, Billy Ray Valentine, Kevin. Steve Rhodes started his trading career as a student almost 20 years ago and the student has now become the master. Steve won the prestigious Timer of the Year award in 2018 and barely missed that mark again in 2019, finishing at number two for the year, an amazing accomplishment. Steve Rhodes is committed to sharing his techniques and knowledge with anyone who wants to learn and he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge every day in his Mastering Probability newsletter. Steve's award-winning newsletter, Mastering Probability, is delivered every trading day with updates throughout the afternoon. Sign up for Steve's Market newsletter, Mastering Probability, and you'll receive access to seven of Steve's educational webinars absolutely free. 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Market Insights comes with a 30-day money-back guarantee for all new subscribers, so you have nothing to risk. Don't miss out on this opportunity to revolutionize your trading game. Head over to TFNN.com right now to join the thousands of traders who have already experienced the power of Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter, Market Insights firsthand. TFNN, educating investors. TFNN has just launched their new trading room, the Tiger's Den, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years, with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours, and now they are expanding their reach with the Tiger's Den, available to all tigers and tigeresses for just $1 for the year. There's no cash or added costs when you join our community of traders. In the Tiger's Den, you can look over the shoulders of Tom O'Brien and the other TFNN hosts while they analyze charts during their live Tiger TV programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas, interact with other tigers and tigeresses as they share trading ideas, news analysis, and discuss the market action all trading day, even at night and on the weekends. The Tiger's Den at Discord is accessible on mobile or tablets as well, so it's always at your reach. To sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders, just visit the front page of TFNN.com. Toll free at 1-877-927-6648, internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER>. Okay, folks, here is a situation that we have going on in natural gas. You'll notice from the high we made back here in November, the 23rd, right before Thanksgiving. Let's try that, Larry. After the day before Thanksgiving, you'll notice here that we've come down, we hit the 382 retracement here, backed off.  Now we've made it the third time. What's different is we sold that here the other day, just two days ago, very nice 382 up there at 12, excuse me, 258. We covered it here at 239. Okay, that was a 61% retracement here, but look what we've got going now. Looking at this really closely. Remember, this is a holiday atmosphere. This is an hourly chart, but we have a valid ABCD pattern right here. This is what I would call, look, you take out all of these stops, you see that? Those stops are gone. You would think they would be, there's your ABCD leg right here, right on the money. So it shouldn't get much above there. The high was 260, it's trading at 258.50, so that looks like a legitimate short sale, if you were gonna be looking at it. Let's just look at it a little bit in depth, okay? What we're gonna do now is go from, using our timing thing on the bottom, we're gonna go from low up to high and see that it took 15 hours. You see that? Took 15 hours to do that. I'm gonna get rid of all these others here, so you can see them out of the way. It took 15 hours to make that high, 15 trading hours, okay? So all we're gonna do now is we're gonna move this over from here low to your high, and we are in the 50, we're actually one hour past, so it's really close. So it's another thing that tells you maybe this is good. This is what we look at when we're watching time and price, because if you drew this on a little pattern recognition tool like we have here in Ensign, you'll see that lines up to a drive one, drive two, and drive three. So we measured from low to high and low to high. So what we wanna do next to find out if the geometry is correct is we wanna measure from high to high to high. So we take the little tool, I'll show you how to do this at home. It's real simple. There it is right now. There's time and price being squared. Upside down, this is it. This is how the ball games played here in Tucson, Arizona. Getting rid of this, and you're home and you don't have this tool, it's really simple folks.  All right, measure it with a little ruler, whatever you have to do. Take that and move it right over there and there's your same little tool just like you were looking right down here. That's exactly what you're learning. You got three things that make you believe this is a good sale, okay? A, you have an A, B, C, D. That's the standard of what we use. We have high, excuse me, low to high and low to high. It's absolutely perfect at 15 hours up, okay? And we have high to high and high to high all coming together. That's Mother God and company folks. It doesn't get any easier than that and it's certainly not hard to do. It's not rocket science but that's what pattern recognition swing trading is all about. All right, now I had one other question and that was about the soybeans because they've been under a little bit of pressure here and we're getting close to what I think is gonna be a pretty good bottom. Let's just get this up here. You see here, we're getting ready to take these lows out right here. That low came in at 294. The low today has been 295. So let's just match this low. We need to take this low out because there's gotta be stops there. I mean, I can't believe that there wouldn't be but maybe there isn't, I don't know. But here's what we have in the soybeans. There's this, we're a little below the 78% level. We had a nice rally to the 50%. Now look what we've got, ABCD coming down and that's a nice ABCD pattern because you've got a high here. You got a high here. So we're gonna be able to look at it on a four hour chart and see it just a little clear. And there's what we wanna be looking at. This is where get rid of all these other little things on the other charts. So there's where we are. Remember, these were the stops are gonna be down in here somewhere. And look where we've got going. We've got a nice ABC, look and see here the last high that we made was almost an exact 382. Oh, actually went to 50%, sorry. Now you've got this pattern coming in right here. You've got an A, B, C, D coming in right there. So we're just gonna draw it in. This will be for tomorrow. This will be off the air by the time this thing starts to move. We should get down here to this level here around another 30 cents lower. We might only just take this out by a little bit in turn. I don't know. And the reason why I say that is I'm stretching out this ABCD pattern because it's almost making a new low. Watch this. This is where the stops will be placed right at the D part of the ABCD. See, so if it gets to this level right here at 1286, okay, you're just taking out all the stops from that level. And that tells you that that's a good spot. So what I'm gonna do, and this is what I usually do at night, I'll mark this off like this. All right. And I wanna see if I can verify that any other way. I just go back two more days and I see a high right here. So I gotta use that one. There's your high right there. There's your draw it in, right? That's because we're alive and not memoryx. I'm just gonna draw it in just like we would be at home. There's your AB leg right here. Okay. And I'm just gonna clone that. And we're gonna see where it comes into and if it comes anywhere near. Uh-oh. Where are we folks? We're in the buying box. So this is what I think we're gonna do here is take these out and then we're gonna have a pretty good rally. Look, if you buy it here, there's gonna be a lot of stops. So far they haven't been hit yet. This was 293 and three quarters. This has been 295. These stops are gonna be hit. And then we're gonna see how close we get to 1286 and three quarters. That's down 14 cents from where we are right now. But that's the kind of pattern that you wanna be watching. So if you mark this, there's your, let's just draw it. Let's draw the thing in easy way. Hope I can do it the right way. Sometimes these things get a little squirrely. That's that one right there. And then we got the other one right behind it that is right here. So I got a lot of things that tell me this may be a good bottom. Certainly tradeable. I'd be buying it say 1287 and putting a seven cent stop. Where can you be a farmer in Indiana and Illinois for 350 bucks? That just doesn't happen. You got farm equipment. You got to lease the land. You got to hire somebody to run the combines and stuff. Just doesn't happen here at the Chicago border trade. You just buy it, put your stop in and you become a farmer of 5,000 bushels of the fine soybeans for January delivery. So that's what we're paying close attention to here. We've had a request to talk about the wheat and we have Rich Anderson coming up in just a minute here because remember Rich was on several years ago when wheat was up around the old, how high did we get? 13 bucks, I believe. Yeah, 1370 is where we were back in here. Of course he's been on many times. If there was a high in 2022, we're still looking at a possibility of seeing wheat below $4. I don't think it's gonna happen, but it's certainly possible. But we'll have Rich on when the break comes up here in just a few minutes, actually 32 seconds and then we'll see what he has to say. I've got some questions for him about options. So stay tuned folks. Rich Anderson coming up next<PHONE_NUMBER>. The Gold Report. As a precious metal, gold is still king. It continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market, the US futures market and the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The Gold Report. 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Okay, folks, we're back and I believe we have Rich Anderson of Anderson Capital Management online. Rich, are you there? Yep, I'm here. How are you, Larry? Happy holidays to you and the family, Rich. Oh, thank you. You too. Man, I know it's a big deal there. How's your weather? Okay, I thought that was a great call you had yesterday selling the S&P. Oh, I got lucky once in a while. Rich, we've got a hog report due out tomorrow. Is that correct? Yeah, they're on Friday. They're on Friday. Friday, now what can you give the folks where hogs are trading? Fib hogs are down around 70 cents. They've been as low as 65. Rich, you remember about six or seven years ago, hogs were under the cost of production by I think they were trading for 45 cents and you were on the show. I went and bought a honey-baked ham for Christmas. I paid more for that ham than a whole hog was being sold for in South St. Paul.  Because these baby pigs are penciled in almost an $80 loss. So a sow could have 12 pigs, that's 960 bucks. And you can liquidate that sow, but you're only gonna get $100 for her. Yeah, people don't realize that. It costs a lot to feed these little pigs. It's kind of a train wreck right at the moment. Yeah. Rich, I have one other question about the live cattle market. We had a hive around almost 180, which was an all-time hive. By the way, you bought that. I remember you bought that on the low.  Well, I got lucky on that one. But now it's gonna be 50 this week, can you believe it? In Minneapolis in December? Yeah, it's just crazy. In November or December, we're two of the driest months ever for Minnesota. But anyway, go ahead on the cattle. Okay, the cattle we have, cattle gone from like 180 down to 162 or something like that. I mean, this is an incredibly high price for cattle. They've hardly backed off at all. Is there gonna be any relief here where we get cattle down to say 120 or 115 in the near future? Are they gonna remain high for considerably long time? Because I know you have cattle on your ranch. So what do you think there? Well, I think we can revisit the low, okay? And I think we're gonna stay in a training range. In fact, I was just talking with a buddy 20 minutes ago and tell him where he could be selling. And in any case, I think we're gonna just be in a training range in, but it's a broad training range. I might add that if you look at the feeder cattle market, which is, you know, that's the ones that you buy and put the feed in them and then they become that cattle. That dropped exactly 50%. You know, if you go and look at the charts, the monthly charts, you'll see that. Now that same kind of a phenomenon happened back in 09 to 2012, except it took a lot longer. These things are happening, you know, in microseconds compared to the old days. I mean, well, look at yesterday's sell-off in the S&P, that in two hours, it took five days' worth of rally out of the market. Yeah. Rich, we got a call on the line here. Jeff from Phillies has a question for you, Rich. Go ahead, Jeff. Sure. Oh, hi. Thank you. Yeah, but good question for Rich. But before I do, Larry, I think that report comes out at 3 p.m. Eastern tomorrow. So I don't think it's during your show, but you can ask Rich. I'm not the expert. But Rich, yes, I heard quite some time ago on Larry's show, you mentioned reference to a study that shows the market impact of different agricultural reports. And I was wondering how can I get that report, or what the name of it is, and who offers it? Well, all these reports are provided, like the Peacock Report, all these reports are provided by the USDA, the United States Department of Agriculture, that's who put them out. You know, that's who publishes them and they're available to anybody, you know? Yeah, but you gotta, well, let's report it. You know, in the afternoons, you can go to the CME, Chicago Merchant Exchange, and they have different people that will comment on grain reports, or, well, they'll comment on everything, you know, and so you can listen to them and they'll go over it. Or you can go to YouTube, and there'll be two or three different firms that will go over any and all these reports. So there's plenty of places, but if you actually just wanted to read the numbers, you go to the USDA, but what's more important is not what the numbers are, but what the expectation of the market was versus the numbers, that's the key, that's the key. Well, what I was actually looking for is the market impact. In other words, like for the Pinkton Hogs Report, the market normally will respond plus or minus 6%. You know, something like that on all the important reports. Is there any kind of study out there that has that information? Not, I'm sure there is, not that I'm aware of, but I'm sure somebody's done that, but you know, there are a lot of people that do that in the equity markets, particularly the off-center kind of guys, but I'm sure somebody's done that in the futures, but not that I'm aware of. It's a good idea Jeff, that's something we ought to think about. Okay, well, nobody's done it, I'll do it. There you go, you probably got a product that people would like to buy too, Jeff. Rich, you remember the days when we used to trade hogs and bellies and cattle and there would be limit up, limit up, limit down, limit down, you'd never see that anymore. Those limits are gone, aren't they? They just expand the limits. Well, that's because they expanded rangers. Yeah. Well, first of all, the rangers were huge. I'll get off, thank you very much guys. Thank you, have a good day. Yeah, it's been, how long's it been since we've seen a lock limit in cattle or hogs, you know? Since the expansion, I don't know. It's probably, that's a very good question, probably a couple of years at least. I mean, I don't remember one that was locked. Well, the other reason that they don't get locked is anything that has options on it, even if it's locked limit down, you can still trade out of that by doing a synthetic futures, which is, let's say you want to get out of the long side, while you're buying and putting, selling a call and they'll synthetically do that and they might take an additional four or five cents. In the old days, you'd hand them the keys to a Cadillac or something like that in the pit, you know? That's for sure. Listen, I think we got a break coming up here. I want to talk to you about the, we started summertime over there in the South American stuff, with Argentina and Brazil and stuff. What's the soybean situation and the amount of soybeans that China has to have? Because they got 1.3 billion people that eat a lot of tofu. So what do you think's going to happen to the beans? I mean, we're $12 beans, are we going to go to 10 or are we going to go to 15? Well, this is the rainy season and they're not, you know, they're going to get some rain this week, but it's been very dry. The biggest two producing Montegrosso is the number one producing state and Brazil. But keep waiting till after the break. This week after the break, Rich Adams will be right back from 877-976648. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com. 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The Prospectus and Summary Prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares. To obtain a Prospectus or Summary Prospectus, please contact Direction Shares at<PHONE_NUMBER>. The Prospectus or Summary Prospectus should be read carefully before investing. An investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor, Foreside Fund Services, LLC. This program is brought to you by Vista Gold, traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. Back folks with Rich Anderson, Anderson Capital Management, and we have taken a trip down to South America. We're right now, we're in Buenos Aires, heading over to Rio de Janeiro. Tell us about the crop down there for beans, Rich. Well, just like up here, it's been dry. The anticipation that the La Nina would give us more rain last summer in the United States and that didn't work out quite the way they expected. And it's dry down there, but keep in mind that the growing acreage in the United States is about 1,000 miles from the northern part, the southern part of where we grow grain, the grain belt. Down in Brazil and Argentina, we're talking over 2,000 miles long. So Montegroso is the number one soybean producing state and they're having problems. They've surveyed the producers, soybean producers down there and they think their crop could be 20% lower. Now the Brazilian government has got their crop five or six million metric tons less than the USDA. And eventually, you know, they come together, but it's, well, there's an issue, but there's rain in the forecast and it's coming in and they need to replenish the moisture and we'll see if they get it done. That's the thing. And if they don't get it done, then the beans have higher to go. They do get it done.  And as far as the February out for the U.S. market, then the February outlook, it's where the USDA puts out numbers. And right now the corn bean thing favors planting beans over corn. So you're probably seeing some reduction in corn acreage and increase the bean acreage, but it's so down in the South America, they double crop, they harvest the soybean and then they plant the sofrina corn behind it. And because it's so dry, some of that corn may not get planted and or will get planted in very poor conditions. The, you know, that's, and then on top of that, you've got transportation issues and the reason we've seen some buying from China lately is because we've gotten some transportation advantages. But like in wheat, the other day when Egypt tendered for wheat, the cheapest wheat was from Black Sea from Russia. You know, that's, it's a critical month right now for beans down in South America and they need to get the moisture forecast and we'll see how much we get over the weekend. That's really what it's supposed to have. How about the Panama Canal? We hear news reports that the water levels of the canal, because it's up quite a bit from, you know, sea level are very, very low and they're not able to get some of these large ships from China through, is that correct? Right, the Panama ships and it's Lake Gatsun and that's what's used to, you know, raise and lower the locks and there's no relief and moisture that will build up this lake until at least summer and there was a queue of maybe 60 ships waiting to go through there and it's really causing all kinds of problems. They're looking at, I just studied that yesterday and they're looking at taking this other lake and diverting water from that into the Gatlin Lake because every time they open, let's say you get a ship through then you open to let them into the ocean. Well, the water that was in that lock goes into the ocean, right? So they're constantly, you need lots of water and it's a real problem and they hope to figure out how to solve it but there's no answer on the horizon. I can tell you the things that I am looking at. One of the best longest seasons is, you know, gasoline is what we use in the summertime, right? And he also used in the wintertime. So this is the time of the year, the last couple of weeks have been the time of the year to be looking at spreading May gas against May, you know? And then natural gas has caught my eye. I think that's kind of interesting. It's been so warm that there isn't a lot of usage but if the, you know, something in the weather changes, it could all of a sudden become interesting. And I think, look how well this crude oil has held. You know, the report that came out increased the stocks in the United States and yet the market still held relatively well. And that's because we're queuing up these ships. You know, I don't know if you remember, but when I was on your program a week before Russia invaded Ukraine in the Olympics, I said, well, if there's an Olympic throw over, they're gonna invade Ukraine and they did. Now here, our Navy, Brits, the French and several other partners, they're not gonna allow the hoodies to shut down shipping in the Red Sea. And that's what everybody, including China, you know, because everybody's paying for more insurance. So I think there's gonna be some fireworks and that's gonna make things interesting. And as far as the stock market goes, all you have to do is look at the housing starts where 200,000 over the estimate this week, you know, people are getting way over their skis and anticipation of all the cuts we're gonna have next year. And if we have cuts, I might add, it's usually because the economy's not doing well and usually when you see the first cut, the markets don't do very well, they sell off. And so I suspect that they're maybe not gonna have cuts and the market's gonna, you know, still do well because the economy's doing better. So that's my overview, you know. Well, that's what we wanna do. That's why you get- But I'm your fourth farmer, what do I know? Yeah, that's why you get the big buck, Bubba. Hey, listen, thanks for joining us, Rich and happy holidays to you and Lisa and tell the kids I said hello and have a wonderful holiday and try to stay above 50 degrees there. I know it gets cold over there in Minnesota and I certainly don't wanna be anywhere near that. Well, I know, I can't believe it. You take care. Okay, buddy. Thank you so much. Rich Anderson folks, Anderson Capital Management. And during the break here, we've been asked to take a look at the silver market. It's been acting a little bit differently than the gold market, but we'll get it up here and take a quick look at it here. Here's our silver coming up here. We'll just get the daily and you'll see it's actually, I think it's down on the day now. Let's just look and see where we are. Here's been the action in silver over the past few days. Now, you'll notice the low that we made. We had higher bottoms in here. This was a really nice, this is a 135 pattern. Each of these is related to the ratio. We have the big ABCD that went all the way up, took out the, almost took out the high of May of last year, met matched it but didn't take it out.  This was the $107 break in the gold, $140 break in gold, silver broke $4 an ounce. Well, three and a half dollars an ounce. It stopped just a little above the 61, well, right on the 61% retracement right here. Then we had the big run up and then here's what we've had so far. So what we're gonna do now is this is the nice rally. This is day one, two, three, four, five, six, seven. This is a seven day rally. Let's see if it went to the 61% retracement level. It did not, it went to the 50% level. That's where it is right now. It's still up a little bit on the day, but just marginally. Let's get down and look at it with a microscope with the hourly chart and you'll be able to see, oh, we did make a higher high, I stand corrected. We'll be right back. I'm gonna finish up with this over here because Mrs. 382 retracement by Harpy. 877-976648. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities & Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities & Options Report today with a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. For all the details and to start your subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com, TFNN Educating Investors. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at TFNN.com. When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader, Larry Pezzavento, on stocks you need to pay attention to and you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos, and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today. TFNN.com Educating Investors. Are you ready to take your trading to the next level? Introducing Tom O'Brien's award winning newsletter, Market Insights, your key to successful active trading. Tom O'Brien, renowned for his expertise in the financial markets, has designed Market Insights to be your daily guide to profitable trades. Tom publishes his daily Market Insights newsletter every market day before the market open, along with updates when warranted. Stay ahead of the game with Tom's real time analysis and trade recommendations delivered straight to your inbox.  Ready to join the ranks of successful traders? Head over to TFNN.com and subscribe to Market Insights today. Don't miss out on this opportunity to supercharge your trading results. 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That's TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV. Okay folks, someone's asked me why I'm so bullish on gold and silver and I will show you the silver chart. You'll notice this, it's got a lot of stuff in here folks but all I'm gonna do here is to just get rid of it, some of it, just to show you how simple some of this stuff can really be, just get this up here. All you wanna do now is you wanna go look and you can see you have a low here, you have a low here and you have a low here. Okay, the first thing you wanna do is to see if there's any symmetry between those lows. So you come over here and it's not too much but if you took the other low here, not too far off, okay. What I'm trying to point out to you folks, this is a head and shoulders pattern. You see how this is your left shoulder, there's your head, there's your right shoulder. The right shoulder comes in at a perfect garterly at a 61% retracement right there, okay. And then if you look at that, there's your left shoulder, there's your head, there's your right shoulder. We haven't taken out the highs yet but we've had higher bottoms in here. This tells you to have a highest probability that we're gonna go higher. I will make this prediction folks. This is the monthly, you see this high up here? When we close above this high, civil will go to $100 an ounce, that's my prediction. I really believe that. I've seen this high three times in my lifetime, 1980, 2007 and 2011, not 2007, 1990, whatever it was back here. Back in the old days of Drexel Burnham, but that's what we're watching. That was way back in the 80s. But once we get above there, that means you're gonna be going a great deal higher. That's got a long way to go to get there.  Let's say 34. Once you start getting above 34, 10 bucks from where we are right now, then it's when we get above here that you're gonna get it. I've always recommended buying these silver rounds. Do that. Let's take a break. Tomorrow we're going to have our good friend, Peter E. Lighties. We'll be right back folks, tomorrow. Bye bye.


So what was there afterwards was the Fifth Republic. I'm now completing my discussion on state tradition and historical perspective. Here we have from 1958 till 1981. So for more than for about 60, almost 25 years, right? Almost a quarter of a century. We had right-wing governments coming to power. Pompidou, Villegiscar d'Estaing, and others coming to power. But only in 1981 the French Fifth Republic was really tested. Because one would think, OK, strong executive, weak parliament, plus a change, like nothing would change. Every time a new government would come to power, every time a new president would come to power, it was in the right-wing coalition. So all right-wing parties or right-wing candidates of the right-wing parties or center-right candidates of center-right parties were coming to power. But in 1981, a socialist contended power. And the socialist president came to power being elected. So it was the real test, the litmus test, for the regime. It was when Mitterrand really challenged the conservative coalition that had been reigning all throughout the Fifth Republic since then. And it was with this peaceful, what's called alternation, alternation, that the system looked stable after centuries of instability. So this was in a way, I mean, just imagine what was passing through the minds of citizens. All right-wing or center-right governments coming to power one after another since the 50s. And the entire world is going towards the right. The conservative revolution is sweeping with its all kinds of tides across advanced industrialized societies and also in developing nations elsewhere, not only in Europe, but elsewhere worldwide. But we have the French electing a socialist president. So it was a true test of stability in that respect. And it was through this what's called alternation, which means alternation of power from right to left or left to right, that we saw the Fifth Republic where political scientists or political sociologists tended to believe that the Fifth Republic became more durable. But until then, everybody was expecting some change. With the changing of power, changing hands in the executive power, one would have thought, the system will change again. There will be some imbalance, some rupture with the old system. But it continued, which was new in the history of French state tradition. It was a peaceful transition. It was a peaceful what's called alternation. So that's 1981. Then 2002, another highlight, another milestone was Jean-Marie Le Pen. He was the leader of Front National Front, ultra right wing party, who targeted Muslims, Muslim immigrants, Jews, and all mainstream politicians. And he said, hey, I don't believe in this system anymore. The system looks rigged. So we need to change the system entirely. So what happened was that there were three candidates running for presidency, for the president. There was the socialist Lyonnais Jospin. There was the right wing or right center right representing UMP, the right wing party, or center right party, the other mainstream party in the system, Jacques Chirac, who was previously the mayor of Paris. And third, we had Jean-Marie Le Pen, who was representing ultra right wing political party National Front. So what everybody was expecting was that, by the way, France has a two ballot system. Let me first talk about that. France has a two ballot system. What's a two ballot system? Two ballot system? Uh-oh. Two ballots. Oh, in a way, it works in a winner-takes-all system. But what's the two ballot in Turkey? Yes? What's a two ballot system then? Shares. It depends. If no candidate wins absolute majority, 50% plus one, there will be a run-off election. So what happened in this election in 2002 was that there were three candidates, Lionel Jospin representing the left, social democratic left, Jacques Chirac, who was representing center, center right, and that the foremost right was Jean-Marie Le Pen, nationalist, ultra nationalist, right wing, ultra right party representing National Front. So everybody was expecting these two guys to be running in the second round. That the first, I mean, none of the two, neither Lionel Jospin nor Jacques Chirac, would gain 50% one plus one of the votes. So everybody expected these two to run in the second round. But what happened was Jean-Marie Le Pen came second right after Jospin. So it was a shock to the entire nation, an ultra nationalist leader coming to the idea of France having an ultra nationalist leader, the possibility of electing an ultra nationalist leader, or at least the incidence, the existence of this vote was a shock, was quite traumatic for many, that he came second. But later on, in the second round, the majority of votes, I think it was 70% or something, went to Monsieur Chirac. So he couldn't do well in the second round. That everybody voted to outmove, outmaneuver Monsieur Le Pen. Monsieur Le Pen's daughter, Marine Le Pen, is now contending in French politics. Anyway, then 2002, with the Dutch, the French said no to the European Constitution, the EU's new governing treaty, which would consolidate all the texts under one single roof, that there would be one single body of treaties, that it would serve as the constitution of the European Union, but the French for highly domestic reasons said, no, we don't want that. But this was also a shock to the system. France was one of the founding fathers of European integration. Those of you who are taking or who will be taking, hopefully, the Jean Monnet Fellowship Exam, the Jean Monnet Fellowship Entrance Exam, some of you will be taking this to do a master's in Europe. Who was Jean Monnet? Any ideas? Jean Monnet, doesn't ring a bell? You haven't been preparing for this fellowship thing? No. It's not on your minds yet. I'm talking to a third year group. Next year, you'll get to learn about this. He has an idea of European integration. He is heading what's called the commissariat du plan. He is the chief of the planning, French planning office, who dreams of Europe. With Robert Schumann, who was the French foreign minister, who dreamt of Europe, who declared the infamous, the famous Schumann Declaration. So we want to build a new, we have a new ideal, we want to build a Europe. And these guys, citizens, 50 something percent, I think 52% saying no in a referendum to further European integration. Or it was perceived as that this would further European integration, consolidate European integration largely. And the French saying no was a shocker, was a shock to the entire system. So it was, in that respect, another milestone in the 2000s. Then came Monsieur Sarkozy, right wing or center right president, with a new approach to economy, new approach to crime, new approach to unemployment, immigration, and new redefinition of French identity. So this was, again, a new type of leader coming to power. And also, it had many ramifications for not only French politics, but politics in the EU, politics between France and the EU, France, Turkey, EU, Turkey, and all that. So I think this concludes my discussion on French state and, I mean, critical junctures, milestones in French history when we look at state tradition from a historical perspective. Any questions so far? Once again, what I wanted to highlight here is the idea of instability, the idea of frequent regime change. The idea of frequent regime change with lots of blood, even in the 19th century. Shall we discuss this? We may discuss this later on. Sure. Why the French said no to further European integration. So all of this really shows that there is a huge contrast between the first case we've studied, which went really in increments in change, gradual evolution. We see quite the polar opposite of gradual evolution. We see erratic, imbalanced ruptures and revolutions, peaceful evolution, incremental change versus ruptures, path-dependent change, path departures. So the swinging back and forth, the pendulum swinging back and forth between different versions of how to organize your political system. That's about it for the state in historical perspective. Now I'd like to start my discussion on political economy of economic as well as social policies. Failure to resist the Nazi occupation was a trauma for the French in 1940. And behind this, for many, was failure to industrialize, failure to expand the manufacturing sector. So because we couldn't develop an industrial base, we couldn't resist the Nazis. So this was highly traumatic, huge trauma for the French. Slow industrialization was, or underlying slow industrialization, was still large peasantry. France was still an agricultural economy, even at the turn of the 20th century. France was also characterized by low levels of entrepreneurial spirit, entrepreneurial activity, slow population rise, lack of resources, or weaker resources, and all kinds of protection against competition, which brought with it all kinds of inefficiencies and lower levels of productivity. So all of these meant that France was slow in responding to the needs of the 20th century. I mean, industrialization was continuing. There were spurs of industrialization. Starting from the 19th century, France was a case of late industrialization, but still it wasn't enough to compete with their new rival, Germany. When we look at Germany by the year 1900, it wasn't Britain anymore in the manufacturing sector. By far, Germany had surpassed manufacturing output anywhere or any country that is neighboring herself. So by about 1900, we had Germany being a strong powerhouse, industrial powerhouse in advanced industrialized societies in Europe. So France could not resist this. How could we not fight against the Germans? So how do we jumpstart industrialization in a country which was bombarded by the Germans? So they thought, OK, from the Fourth Republic, let's do this with the Fourth Republic, 1946. But how do we do it? We had inherited what's called an etatist policymaking or administrative tradition, economic policymaking tradition, which means that, yes, we can have industrialization, but with the very visible hand of the state behind it. So we needed the state to jumpstart the industrialization process. And there was path-dependent factors. The French had always had a large intervention in the economy even before the 20th century. So the idea of etatism, what does etat mean? State, OK, the idea of state-led growth, the idea of statism was very important, all throughout the 20th century. If there would be any economic modernization, it would certainly stem from state and state activity itself. And state-led modernization, state-led industrialization, was seen as the only way to economic prosperity and also military might or military power against any possible intervention by others. So 1940s, 1950s, 1960s, the new French Revolution, which was an economic miracle, sometimes referred to as an economic miracle, through economic planning by the state. So the system, the entire industrialization process was jumpstarted and also sustained by the French state through all kinds of planning. And this was a certain type of planning. It didn't look like the Soviet style planning that was the name of the game in the Soviet Union after the 1920s. It was called with a different qualifying adjective, indicative planning, in which we do not have a command economy. We had markets. Prices were not set by the state. Prices were set by the markets. And it's not a coercive system. We still work with a market. It's a democratic system. It's democratic planning. We had four to five years of planning, national plans. And these plans would be designed, formulated, and also implemented by democratic procedures. Therefore, we see a different kind of state-led development, state-led growth, through indicative planning, which is quite different from what we see in Britain. There was state intervention, but not through any kind of planning as such. And with this kind of planning throughout the Fifth Republic, we see this administrative style, or we name this administrative style, dirige-ism. Dirige, the verb dirige means manage, administer, govern, where the state sponsors social and economic progress. It manages social and economic progress. It manages production, and also, to a certain extent, distribution. It manages the state through the state apparatus. It manages the economy, I'm sorry, through the state apparatus. And the state, by doing so, creates and finances what's called national champions. And these national champions are in different sectors. They're generally state economic enterprises, or state-owned enterprises, in critical key sectors. Renault, Citroën were all state economic enterprises. Peugeot, these were all state economic enterprises. But later on, France Telecom, Air France, French Airways, National Flag Carrier Company, which later bought KLM. So in transport, in railways, SNCF, railways, mining, banking, banks, they were all state-owned, to a certain extent, or wholly-owned. They were run by the state, sponsored by the state, that the French government would create and pick national champions. And through different means, the state would subsidize production. The state would make a market for these firms. Even the president or president's office would purchase the last model produced by the French firm, as opposed to a Mercedes or any other foreign brand. So the state provides a guaranteed market for these firms. It picks, identifies sponsors, supports, subsidizes all these production units. And it provides all kinds of loans or cheap credit to these firms. And in addition to all those, it provides these firms tax concessions in the sense that, OK, in the first five years, you won't be paying much corporate income taxes. You will be exempt from those taxes. Therefore, I'm not pushing you to compete with your competitors. And all of these would be done through bureaucratic decisions. And here is the emphasis on diligence and managing, which basically means managing by the state, directing by the state, governing by the state, so through bureaucratic decisions. And these state-owned enterprises, state-operated enterprises, have flourished. And they have been the strongholds of technical progress. And they have also been responsible for producing a massive amount of wealth in the French economy. So this is a different type of state intervention, as opposed to what we've seen in France. This is more direct state intervention. Yes, you work with markets. But you do first indicative planning. But your approach as a state, you are really supporting your firms. You're really sponsoring industrialization yourself. Please. An indicative plan. You mean through the colonization process until the 60s, French had many, many qualities, not only elsewhere, but also right down south in Algeria, that this was a process of not only subordination, but also oppression. You mean that? So basically, democracy at home, but no democracy elsewhere. Is that what you meant? Sure. No, I mean, that's a good comment. The French ideal of Republican ideals versus what the French government does elsewhere, or what the French government promotes elsewhere, or fails to promote elsewhere. OK, so the role of the state in the economy, it's quite different from what we see in Britain. Although there are parallelisms in terms of, remember we talked about collectivist consensus, that the state would also be supporting markets. But here, we see a more active or proactive state stepping into the economy and start producing, OK? When you compare the state economic enterprises or state-owned enterprises in France versus Britain, you see massive differences. In France, the size of the employment, for example, in the state economic enterprises have always been much higher than those in Britain. OK, what kind of outcomes did this regime produce in the Golden Age, so-called? The 30 glorious years, let's not glorious. We had very high rates of economic growth, which was highest in Europe, which surpassed 5.5% per year for about 30 years or so, which was only surpassed by Japan if I'm right. I think it was almost 10% every year during the 50s, 60s, 70s, which was almost double what Europe was growing. Then May 1968, we had strikes, demonstrations by masses against the Gauls regime, which was really repressive or turning repressive or non-consulting with a more or less autocratic attitude or semi-authoritarian attitude and arbitrary rule. So masses were on the streets, students were on the streets, Jean-Paul Sartre was on the streets. And workers were on the streets, professionals were on the streets, artists were on the streets, demonstrating against the regime. Labor was mobilized, and French women increasingly got politicized, birth of feminism, French style, especially in this period. And from the late 60s onwards, we see a labor force participation among women, women participating in the labor force increasing or coming at a very high level around this time. France gets caught up in the world economic crisis, 1970s, where growth plummeted, but this was happening against the background of structural change. What do I mean, or what do we mean by structural change? Change in the economic structure, what may be changing here, 1960s, 1970s? Not yet, that was a good guess, but not yet. Structural change. We tend to talk about structural change when we see a transition from an emphasis on agriculture to industry or from industry to services. So this was, think about a country which was a late comer to the ball game of industrialization because it was a peasant economy. I mean, the peasantry was very strong. We had an agricultural sector which was very dominant in France, although we had an expanding, massively industrial base. So 60s, 70s, we still see a large agricultural sector in France diminishing in time with industrialization as well as a process of industrialization in terms of both output and also in terms of the number of people employed, the share of the workforce employed, excuse me, we see expansion of the industrial sector. So industry is growing. There is all kinds of change. These kinds of changes bring with them socio-political forces that are prone to conflict. At the same time, we had with the OPEC shocks what happens in 1972, 73, and later 78, 79. What happens to the price of oil? It rises. Why does price of oil rise in 1972, 73, 78, 79? What happens? Oil crisis. But why did we have the oil crisis out of the blue? What happened? So how did they collectively make decisions, these oil-producing countries? What was the venue? What was the international organization that brought these oil OPEC, Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries? OK, they organized and they said, I'm sorry, they said, will reduce output supply if supply of a certain product, which is extremely important, demand for which, as you shall remember from microcourses, microeconomics, demand for which is highly inelastic. You can't do without it, that means. Demand for oil is humongous. You can't stop it. You can't live without it. You had even plants, factories running on oil. You were producing electricity out of coal and sometimes oil. So you're so dependent on oil and its supply is going down. What happens to its price? So price increases. And the price of oil is so important that it is used in almost every sector. All prices increase. If all your prices increase and you have those in East Asia and to a certain extent in Latin America, producing at lower prices the newly industrializing countries competing against your products, what do you do? You'll try to compete, but they'll outsell you in world markets, which means your production levels are plummeting. So oil crisis translating into a recession, one recession after another, not like a depression, but economic activity decelerates, does not grow. In fact, there were years of negative growth.  Will you be recruiting more workers or recruiting less workers? You start recruiting less workers. With recruiting or recruitment of less number of workers, we have job losses because of massive competition from the newly industrializing countries.  So you lose jobs back home. And you still have conservative governments all throughout the 60s, all throughout the 70s. When the crisis hits, you have conservative governments who are turning a blind eye to the workers' demands in France. Then what happens, quite the opposite of what happened in Britain, we had, for the first time in the history of the Fifth Republic, a socialist president coming to power, François Mitterrand coming to power for the first time as a French socialist president. After all those years with conservative governments, one after another, dominating French society, French politics, was there any concern of the or against Mr. Mitterrand that they were cooperating with the Soviet Union? There were reports, I remember. Of course, there was some said, oh, France is turning to become more like a command economy. France is turning more like a communist state. There were some worries. But the state had always been very influential. In the French markets, in the French economy, and also, there was a history of indicative planning. There was a history of etatism. So this was no alien, not an alien system in general. And at this juncture, Mr. Mitterrand says, I am going to turn France, or I'm going to implement socialism in one country. So this was his slogan. I'm going to implement socialism, socialist goals in the heartland, in the European heartland. I have a different program. I pledge different goals, different strategies to you. And he does, in fact, implement these reforms, many, many, many radical socialist reforms after having defeated Balegis Gardistan. And there was modernization. So social benefits in France had been expanding. The minimum wage had been expanding. So he was really listening to the voices of the masses. He wasn't really turning a blind eye to what the workers wanted, those who were on the streets. Public employment in the state economic enterprises expanded. The state assisted high tech advanced technology firms. And he starts nationalizing some parts of the French industry. But with the nationalization of parts of the industry, with the state competing against the business groups, or so they thought, business said, hey, stop. We can't work like this. They oppose reforms. They really try to counter those reforms. And with their resistance, there emerged an economic recession. With this economic recession in the early 1980s, exports started to go down. So French competitiveness was undermined. Social spending was going up. It was expanding. But imports were increasing. French reserves were being depleted. So the French economy came almost near to bankruptcy. And this was the time when Monsieur Mitterrand and others thought, OK, delegism is being really undermined here. So we need a new system, a new economic way, or a new way of organizing our economies. And it was about 1983. Jacques Delor was aiding Mr. Mitterrand. And they engineered, they designed a U-turn. So as you can see, socialist reforms, nationalization expanding the role of the state. So they were going towards their ideal of one, or socialism in one country. They were going towards the left. But they made a U-turn in line with what the business leaders wanted. So yes, let's continue modernization. But let's continue a neoliberal type of modernization. So a new type of economic regime was put into place by a socialist president. So that was also a shock to the system. One would have thought it was Margaret Thatcher who came to power, who engineered neoliberalization. It was Helmut Kohl who came to power, who continued with neoliberalization of the German economy. But it was a French socialist president who U-turns and who engineers a different kind of economic regime than he pledged. So it was a shock to the system. Any questions so far? I think I should end here. OK, I'll see you on Friday. Thank you.