The following is a presentation of TFNN Trade what you see With Larry Pezzavento Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER> Now Larry Pezzavento Okay, looking good Billy Ray feeling good Lewis. I know that chart was just a little incomplete. I forgot to change this Display settings on it. I'll send it in a little bit here. Just give me just a second here I'm gonna start the show today yesterday, of course was Chinese New Year and we went out with some of our Chinese friends here in Tucson and we had a really wonderful time But I he was a about mr. MT was able to tell me a wonderful parable About the Chinese New Year's these three gentlemen all holy men. We're going from Hong Kong To New York City and the on this the one that was sitting on the aisle was a rabbi in between him was a Tibetan monk and then on the side of the window was the Catholic priest and The the rabbi said to the Catholic priest. He said father. He said I've always wondered He or the Catholic excuse. I got this screwed up already The Catholic priest asked to the rabbi. He said have you ever had, you know pork the rabbi said unfortunately one time I did I had a ham sandwich. He's a pause. He said well, how was the ham sandwich? He said it was okay The few minutes goes by and the rabbi says to the Catholic priest He said it's a father. He said have you ever I know you have celibacy in your program and stuff But you ever have you ever wavered from that? The Catholic priest says yes, sir. He said I certainly have I did one time when I was young and Pause goes by and the rabbi said well, how was it and father said it was certainly better than that ham sandwich and You might ask what is the meaning of this with the Tibetan person in the middle there? Well, I was told by my lovely bride that you better put something in this thing Are you're going to be charged for being a woke person? So I don't want to be a woke person That's why we put in the Tibetan monk. Let's talk about the markets folks today I Don't I can't make this stuff up I put a chart up of the DAX as you can see you'll notice this pattern here That's known as a 2 2 2 pattern folks and you never guess what today is 2 2 2 February 22nd my daughter called me at 5 30 this morning to remind me because she had all of these things on the the 2 2 2 patterns all over the refrigerator when she was a little one She cut out the little diagrams and stuff and we laughed about that and I didn't realize today was 2 2 2 and I have not seen This many this many 2 2 2 patterns since I have been doing this for such a very very long time I did post a chart. I posted it just a second ago. This is the one from the DAX the German DAX I've got a lot to post so bear with me here. There's the 2 2 2 pattern No, and we'll be able to look at that as we go through looking at these things I called about the Gartley pattern when I found it, you know back in 1970 middle hold on just a minute. I'm getting Skype message or Okay, thank you. All right, let's get through a few charts here because he there's so many of them here that it is really quite It's really quite amazing. These these are the ones that come across from our friends over in the UK here is another 2 2 pattern here This is the one in the SPX cash. You can see the 61 percent retracement there I mean and look at that's ABCD. It's all this stuff, but you know the fact that it's here on February 22 I mean, it's just literally this blows me away. It's one day past the Chinese New Year's which was the new moon So I mean last night folks I've been at most of them I've been up all night because of the action we were having in the S&P and some of the other things and also in the crude oil But the main thing was is that the many things have happened Going on for chart patterns that we've been waiting for for a very very long time now The next one we're going to look at is not a 2 2 2 pattern But it's a it's a very important pattern because we call that a three-drive to a top pattern And all I have to do now is find it. You know what?  It was right there in front of me and I can't find it now. That's not fair Well, I will find it. It's got to be here somewhere I'll go through the rest of them and then I'll post it. Well, I will post the one Oh, here it is right there in front of me here We've been talking about this for three days folks. We said Wednesday was the day There was your there was your action in the in the crude oil. I sent this out before it happened You know, I put that price in there. That was part of that total ABCD. That's where the ABCD ends at 89 71 The high was folks 89 79 and We've backed off a little bit from that level here now. I whether this works or not I don't know but look at the symmetry that you have here from I mean, it's just absolutely a perfect symmetry Now that goes above that that's going to break. That's god damn Hold on just a second here Mr. Z is saying yes today. Yes, I'll cover the ES in just a minute. Yeah, mr. Z I have I'll do the best I can to cover that but there's so many of these that they're they're just spot on today I mean, it's just and here it is on February 22nd. Anyway, this is a this is the crude We backed off $2 a barrel already on the crude So, you know, you're basically in a risk-free situation in that and so whether it's going to go up or down from here I don't know but you're in a risk-free situation now There's just no way you want to give any of that back But we want to look at some of these others that they're everywhere folks. I mean, we saw it in the German Dax I mean you see it in the footsie and They're they're just there. They're they're everywhere. So that's the main thing the reason why I was up So much last night was because of the buy signal that I triggered for all of our 24-7 people In Google we hardly ever trade stocks, but this one was such a good one. I had to put it up here We got the buy in there at about 2680 is when we said and then we said to sell it up here at 3050 Well, if you believe that you must be a relative of somebody on that airplane that Didn't get all the messages put out because that is my rendition of a Trading joke, let's call it that way. I mean, how do you how do you how do you handle something like that folks? I mean, I heard on the news today on Bloomberg. Somebody actually believed that once it split 20 to 1 they had 20 times the amount of stock that they had Folks that's just you know, they're just cutting in half so people can pay for it. You know easier That's basically it and remember reverse split like we had with City Corp and I think we had another one that was real forward Had a reverse split once to that's get to get to get back into the room that because some of these people can't in these funds Can't buy anything under $5 a share. So then they do a reverse split happened to know that the AIG also had a reverse split of 20 to 1 because the stock went from 92 all the way down the to fifth a 36 cents and I happened to be the story of that. I was that's when I met Sarah It was in October of 07 and her mother was passing away and she was driving She was going back on a plane to Canada and we happened to be on the same plane into Derrida and I was very attracted to her as you can possibly imagine and So we sat in there and I showed the website and I showed the pattern she asked about AIG and So I said well, let me take a look at it and it looked just like crude oil folks exactly like crude oil did today That's exactly what it looked like and I said I would really sell this stock and she's well I've been thinking about anyway, so she sold it within a half point You know it the 36 cents and from 92 to 36 cents and she did say thank you Because she married eight seven seven nine two seven six six four eight You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market You're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future, right? 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This is another 222 pattern. This is the e-mini s and p from the high we made back there in January there at 40 4,800 we came down to a 4,200 the high in this thing last night was I believe 85 or 89 I was watching it some of the time I dozed off, but it stayed right at that 4571 for a great deal of time. This is an hourly chart We're now I considerably below that but that's a little early in the day But it did make that. I mean that was just really, you know spot-on amazing to me. I couldn't believe it You know the the 2 2 2 means so much to me folks that I I've used it all the time I called it a garly 2 2 2 and when I went to Italy in 1988 had to visit one of my relatives and also The Catholic Church were through a sister Estelle. I spent a week there I well I spent a week in in Florence and a week in Rome and it was really great But one of my students was there and he has a he was a what do you call you he he was a tailor professional tailor and He saw he he supplied me with shirts shirts for many years until he passed away Luigi was just a great guy But that's really fun I can tell you this story here because I'm trying to kill some time if you'll look at this here on the shirt on my shirt You'll be able to see the 2 2 2 on the shirt. I think Okay, there's a little 2 2 2 and then there's one on the thing here But anyway, what what's so funny about this is that I was in Las Vegas with Gary Token he was one of the 4x bankers for GFT 4x and I We were sitting at a blackjack table and I had a white shirt on and it had French cuffs And I had the 2 2 2 on the monogram and this little young lady was trying to hustle Gary and She said to me she said What is the 2 2 2 stand for and I said well, I said remember this is 1995 I think yeah 1995 and I told her I said well 2 2 2 I said I sold my startup company for 2 2 2 for $222 a share and she said to me wow she says that's pretty interesting You think you could spend some time and tell me more about it Gary almost fell off the chair. Anyway, that's what it is. It's that's what it's all about I'm only about half here today boys and girls so bear with me, but this is really important stuff I'm going to get back into the program here to cover it not just that but I want you to do this yourself This is the Dow Jones industrial average. Okay. I want you to take a look at it. Let me get up I did this I did this yesterday long.  Let's get moving here Hold on hold on hold on I Missed it here. All right, there we go here is the Dow Jones industrial average now this was done before all this hoopla. Okay now This is the actual index that the number of the 61% retracement and that's the Gartley There's the a bcd the number on that six on that number is 35,500 I Don't know what the high was in the index today the last time I checked it was yesterday long before this happened and I had it at 5,4005 Would someone be kind enough to tell me what has been the high in that index today because that's pretty good You know, that's very very very very important. All of these are just really Super important today because if this market close is really strong above all these numbers Boy, we're gonna really rock and roll. We're gonna take those highs out like they didn't even exist So you've got to be very very careful here if you're into the short situation If you followed what we were looking at, you know, it was right there near the highs if you look at the the YM Here is the YM. I updated this one today. Ah, shut the front door and raise a rent I keep hitting the wrong buttons boys and girls and do that all my life Hold on here. We'll just get up here to take a quick look at this one right here And there it is right there at the hit the exact numbers folks I mean to the tick 35,374 it's still close to that right now so we can easily close above that and if we do then you're looking at something It's you know, really really pretty exciting. Okay. Now we have to get back to the old Teaching mode and I will try to do that. We had an interesting into a quick question about trailing stops They asked if I use trailing stops and the answer to that is yeah I sure do and what I try to do is if you look at this You'll see the where it says the the long bar you can see that really long bar there Let's say you bought it down here at the bottom, which was the abcd down there at 385 and natural gas And you do that all you do is you put your stop 78 well 78.6 percent lower than that high So if that market reverses you're going to get stopped out until that happens You let it run now you see the next long bar that you have here That's when you raise your stop and if you do that, you know, you're going to be able to catch most of these moves If you can do that. I sometimes they work sometimes they don't but this was the principle that Amos hostage are used I mean this was the breakout system basically what they did at commodity corporation when the market broke out boom That was it. Do you I met I met Amos twice and I can tell you this, you know We didn't have These charts and stuff like this these stuff coming in back in the the 70s and and that didn't happen until 1983 1984 so All he did was he had ticker tapes and he had a girl that actually did the stuff that I did at home And that is watch the ticker tapes when you saw new highs and new lows you marked those up And he did that but he didn't do it He had somebody else doing it and then he would look at it and she would plot it and that that's what he did I mean, that's what that's what I did I mean, he did a lot better than me But but that that's that's what I did and and if you watch those really wide-ranging bars and put your stop 75 percent lower or 78.6 Lower than that you're going to be better off And that's that's what we're looking at the second question that someone asked me was You know, why don't I trade things like the canadian dollar? Well, I do trade the canadian dollar maybe once or twice a year But I'm trading the euro and the pound in the end Euro and pound I trade almost all the time But the you know and but the canadian I don't trade it that often I trade the australian dollar a lot more than I trade the canadian because the australian dollars related to the commodities And I look at volatility. That's why so he had a beautiful pattern in the canadian dollar And I think it's great and you know go for it. That's that's pretty much what you want to be What you want to be doing if you have any questions, it's eight seven seven nine two seven six six four eight And we'll be able to do that. I've got some other things to share you with with you here So let's do that. I stand was supposed to be our guest today But frankly with the markets as volatile as they are. I I don't expect him You know to be be our guest today unfortunately, but That's uh, that's neither nothing we can do about that Okay, now here is here's what I want you to see here This is what I was focusing on last night folks why I spent so much time looking at this This is the chart we got from our good friend, mr Alan Smith over there and then across the pond You notice we have that perfect three eight two there at 14,970 and folks This market went absolutely ballistic But check the high in the nasdaq because I believe it was very very close to the 50 percent level of that last swing And that would be really really important if that were the case because it's 61 of the other We're gonna be right back eight seven seven nine two seven six six four eight The high in the nasdaq, please Are you having fun creating the markets But having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with Become an apex predator in the trading markets and join the tiger's den trading room only at tfnn.com The tiger's den is an exclusive trading room where successful traders from around the world come to exchange trades and ideas Join the den and surround yourself with these sharpest minds in the trading world Subscribers to the tiger's den are also the first to have their questions answered live on air And can privately chat with our tfnn hosts live during their shows Interact with other tigers and tigers as they share trading ideas news analysis and discuss the market action all trading day Subscribe to the tiger's den risk-free with our 30-day money back guarantee and become part of the tfnn trading community tfnn educating investors You could be making money off the stock market and if you're already making money off the stock market You could be making a lot more Check out tfnn and tiger tv and get expert investing advice to give you the power to control your financial future Go to tfnn.com and find the newsletter for you Whether you're into trading gold metals futures currencies or options You'll get advice and analysis to help you seriously get ahead tfnn also features trading services with a 30-day money back guarantee for new subscribers As well as tfnn's tiger den trading room trading software and educational webinars for all trading levels And make sure you check out tiger tv for free on tfnn.com or tfnn's youtube channel for live Financial content from 8 30 a.m. To 4 p.m. Eastern on market days Stop watching on the sidelines while other people get rich and become the investor You were born to be tfnn educating investors tfnn is excited about our new software charting program the art of timing the trade charts In collaboration with tom o'brien and using his best-selling book the art of timing the trade your ultimate trading mastery system David white has programmed an outstanding piece of software that will complement any trader's methodology Using this first of its kind program the art of timing the trade charts allows you to scan thousands of stocks for Fibonacci formation setups including guardleafs abc's butterflies and much more the art of timing the trade charts is designed to help you When scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days weeks or even months Searching to find and right now we're offering licenses available at only $79 a month We are so confident that you're going to love this new charting software that will even give you a 30-day Unconditional money back guarantee don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software Get your copy of the art of timing the trade charts today by visiting tfnn.com This segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information Just click the think or swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com Okay folks, uh, I had a question from someone here the dead and that was it was I scared to put that order in On the crudo. I put it in last night around late in the afternoon Up there at that 89 71 level and the answer to that was no, I was not scared and I'll tell you why I'll tell you What fear is January night 1991 uh, we were Getting ready to go to war. It was a new moon Uh, because the navy seals attacked at the darkness of the moon from loud. So General, uh, what Schwartzkopf was a firm believer from the, you know, being in the army He certainly had that book on his desk And uh, so the navy seals attacked at the the darkness of the full moon So I or the new moon so I knew it was going to probably be that night And I had shorted it on a pattern just like this I mean, it was just spot on at four o'clock in the afternoon. I went to get my haircut There in the San Luis Obispo, and I was watching TV And uh, some I forget what it was on some, uh, call I don't know. I can't remember what it was anyway Jill called the hairdresser that we knew and she slurried your daughter and I said, hi, what's going on? She's dead. She said, are you still short the crude oil?  And she says turn on the news and so I asked him to turn on CNN and there it was man It was right after four and they were lighting up downtown Baghdad Just, you know incredible. So I said, oh boy, here we go again. So I I didn't I had a couple contracts on so it was Submitting deal, but you know So I go back home and I start calling the overnight desk at Drexel because we didn't have an overnight Drex Where I was trading at they they we didn't have any overnight trading But Drexel had a lot of it and so I knew those guys were watching the markets And I kept calling and calling the line was busy busy busy. I mean this is for hours And it was a state and they were having a some type of a function at the university Cal Poly University that I had to go to for an hour. I got back at about eight o'clock Uh, hold on. Do we have stand on the line? I probably do. I messed it probably messed up Uh, oh, we've got a question, uh, bob. It's got a question About the in cues. Are you there bob? Yes, I'm here larry. Good morning. Good morning. What can I help you with my friend? Well, I noticed On your chart you were mentioning that last night the high on the end cue was, uh, 15,000 and two 150 around there and it was the pretty much the 50 percent line And my question is, um In it seems to me in my experience In instead of shorting that 15 Uh, that 50 percent line oftentimes the Huck or the index or whatever it is would would continue on to reach the 0.618 at 15,400 Yes Seems often that it it goes right through the 50 percent line But on the way down that oftentimes seems like there is a support level there. So That's my question And I was wondering if you've noticed that too. Do you actually trade more off the 50 percent line or just I don't know. I use 618. That's why I wasn't watching the e-mini s and p Because it was trading around that 45 71, which was the 61 of the whole move But I was watching the nasdaq because of what was happening with google I wanted to see how high they they could get it because it was so emotional That was the reason why I was watching it That that was what I wanted to know. Okay, but you don't trade the 50 line very often Yes, I'll trade it if I have an abcd At a 50 percent i'll trade i'll trade an abcd off any percentage Because abcd is what the market does. I mean that's the thing from mandel brought the fractal That makes this stuff work if you if you ever see the florid traders handbook You'll know that's right there it proves with emphatically with 30 000 samples This damn thing works and it gives you you know Payouts better than three to one and you hit 62 percent of the trades So i'll trade an abcd all night long Yep. Yep. Very good. Well, that was my question. So thanks for all you do and Thank you so much. I appreciate the kind words bob Okay, okay. All right getting back to the story. Well, I I went I finally got through It was about 10 o'clock at night. I got through to him and I you know I knew these guys I'd given them gifts and helped them with parties and stuff and they always treated me nicely And I said mori. I said what the hell's going on. He said oh larry He said i've been on the line. I've been on the line for five hours. I said that's a lot of calls He said no larry. He said that's one call. He said I was on with one one trader one of our largest ones I said what's going on? I said, uh, I said where uh, you know, because I was short the crude oil And I was also short gold had the same pattern. So I figured I said, uh, I said where's uh, I said where's gold And he said oh, he says it's limit down. I said what he said in a war. He said, yeah, it's limit down He said it's it's it's offered limit down There's no trading for the last two or three hours and I said where's crude oil? He said nobody knows and I says, what do you mean? Nobody knows You know and the fact was well, there was no bids It was 8 9 10 it opened 11 dollars lower and went from 44 to 11 and we have our good friend Stan harley on the line stan. How are you today? Actually, this is tim boss. Hello That's what happens when you stay up all night I know stan and he's a great guy. I can't pretend to be him though You're a great guy too. I knew I had one of you guys out for the time Yeah, I we have a technical mayhem over here too. So Let me get a rope Anyway, if you'll be so kind to take over and save me throw me a life raft. Okay Do our best here actually Do you have the slides that I sent earlier? I think they have the slides. I'll tell me you got the slides and make me a happy camper Because if you don't I can do it. I I I know I can do it because I didn't see the slides if I would have saw No, I don't have any slides. You don't have any slides, but I don't have one from my end either So we'll just wing in here That's how you can hold on one second here No, we don't have any slides. So what you know, this is good We'll take a little break here to just tell the folks what you're seeing here with all this volatility and we have Let's let's talk generally speaking here We we have brilliant illustrations, but you're not going to see them No, what we got going on here this week is a very very interesting transition point We are confronting the end of a mercury retrograde cycle that has been in play since the 14th of january and as you recall On what happened was we shut down the markets on friday january the 14th and had a little extended weekend there For the martin lucas king holiday. So the markets did not reopen until the 18th. So we had a three-day weekend And that's when we began to see some of this sharp volatility kicking in big selloffs and all kinds of While and crazy stuff going on in the markets That's been happening pretty much throughout this last three week period And during this entire time my friend mercury has been in retrograde motion Which always tends to scramble communications And other dynamics in the markets So And we have to pay we have to pay a few bills. Can you stay with us tim? We'll chat more when we come back Thanks, buddy. 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That's tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv Okay, we're back folks with the tfnn also known as the laurel and hardy show And laurel is telling mr. Hardy who happens to be tim boss to please continue Is there a place for the revival of slapstick comedy? This is it This will be my last day at tfnn after 15 years. I'll stop staying up all night. Go ahead my friend. Please There was a scene with laurel and hardy in a rowboat or something that maybe we can try that next Well, it's probably leaking. It might be mine. Go ahead Oh What we were chatting about here is the fact that we've had mercury in rental grade motion for the last Three weeks here and it's been creating all kinds of havoc in the markets We're hoping that's going to come to an end here Actually tomorrow on the 3rd of february This will be late in the evening new york time just before midnight We'll have a mercury returning to direct motion. So friday will be our first full trading day With mercury back in direct motion And typically what we like to do is is throw a party Celebrate a little bit when we get out of this mercury retrograde phase because it can create so many Points of consternation along the way But the fact of the matter is that this is actually the most treacherous part of the entire mercury retrograde cycle It's been moving backwards at least in terms of our Our perspective from here on earth our optical illusion if it was as you will But so what's going on with it is that we've got A slowing down period and is starting to try to move forward again And it's kind of like you're trying to push a car uphill in the snow This has stalled out A lot of the country is under Snowfall and and dealing with situations like that trying to get cars out of ditches You know you get two or three guys and you put the car in neutral and and you try to push it and it's a huge huge Lift trying to get going again Once you get it rolling a little bit Then you can Give it an extra heave hoe and and maybe you can roll and pop the clutch or whatever and get the thing going again But that initial inertia is what we're dealing with right now in the markets as mercury tries to get back into forward motion And so that creates a very very challenging situation for traders We expect to see continuation of the volatility At least through the end of this week and probably into the middle of next week as well As we begin to move forward with this mercury process here And so we're trying to push the car trying to get it going a little bit But right now it's it's a little bit of a frustrating situation Tim I have a question for one of our listeners and that is on this mercury. This is mercury at a Certain station now. Is that correct? Right exactly We have two stations one is what we call the retrograde station Which is a mercury typically goes in in direct motion or forward motion through the positions in the zodiac When it starts to slow down and then stop and begins to move backwards. We call that the retrograde station That's what happened back on the 14th of january and now today Rather coming up tomorrow night. We have the direct station It has been retrograde and now it's going back into direct motion or forward motion again So we mark these two key points in the mercury cycle There are other things that we observe but these are the dominant ones that we pay attention to And we typically see some perturbations in the market Okay, now the question he's asking is it is this an 88 day cycle that you're looking at because you know people When they hear the word mercury they get panicked, but it's actually you know, I has an 88 day It goes around every 88 days correct mercury orbits the sun every 88 days But this is a little different phenomenon because we're looking at it from the earth's perspective This is a 21 22 day period typically When mercury goes into its retrograde motion as seen from the earth's Perspective now that that happens three times a year. So it's not an unfamiliar kind of thing But we get these periods about 21 days or so Roughly three weeks each time that mercury goes retrograde This is independent of its 88 day cycle around the sun Because we're dealing with the observational perspective of the earth here So we get these fairly frequently. It's about 17 18 percent of the time We have mercury in retrograde motion and we have to kind of make adjustments in terms of our analysis of the markets and our trading strategies as well Okay, listen tim I'm going to have you on next week if that's okay with it's it who's weak and over this is such an important time And I you know, I caught you by surprise. I caught myself by surprise. Well, they're all surprised and we Yeah, well, that's a surprise Let's have you on Monday And so we can look at some of these wonderful charts because I really believe that mercury thing Especially coming in, you know one day after the Chinese year, which was a new moon moon and stuff So could we have you on Monday and maybe give us a rerun of what we're doing right now because That'll be By then by then I'll be awake. Hopefully and then we can do a better show It's always a pleasure to connect God's bless you You me Laurel and hearty will all get the job done Take care Okay All right, folks Let's get back to some of these things that I need to talk about here and guess what? I think I just messed up and I got knocked out of the den. Yep. Nope. I'm okay here Have any questions folks? Please don't call<PHONE_NUMBER>. Let's talk about something really important here folks This is a natural gas and we have been rocking and rolling here this morning If you take a look at this, you'll see here that the natural gas also has completed that big abcd The 61 retracement held it for about an hour and a half and we popped up above it up around Just around 5.48 or something like that. The important part of this folks is where it closes today Now there's a perfect example of a trailing stop. You can see if you bought this yesterday on the breakout Okay, that would have been at 495 You just look at that range there. Okay, the range is from right now. It's from 545 Down to 495. So that's a $5,000 range. Well, you take 80% of that and you'll put your stop on a trailing stop. You'd put it down around around 501 502 And the reason for that is if that market gives all of that back You're in big trouble now. Let me show you why that works Go back and look at this on the 10th of the month in january. You see that big breakout move Look what happened the next day.  She told us already that she doesn't trade So you're never going to get the highs and lows very often if you do it's an accident You know that that crude oil trade was an accident all all we did on the crude oil trade is we took the last three days action Okay, and we measured what would be an expansion of the last three days and that came in at 89 70 And that's where you put if it goes above that 1.648 we know that it's no good That's the the whole premise of what we're doing With these things is no no Well, that's what we're looking eight seven seven nine two seven six six four eight be right back folks with flip Wilson as our guest Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument You have to practice sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts at tfnn You'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis And it's not just dry tedious text either tfnn airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com and tfnn's youtube channel with tiger tv Live every market day from 8 30 a.m. To 4 p.m. Eastern for free Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds tiger tv has eight different shows with expert hosts To help you make the right moves with your money Watch online at tfnn.com or on tfnn's youtube channel and become the investor you were born to be Educating investors You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market You're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future right Like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts You might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices Selective stocks and commodities Subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com The opening call newsletter is written by basal chapman creator of the trading methodology known as the chapman wave The chapman wave up down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns finding the peaks and valleys and stock prices Get the opening call newsletter by basal chapman and your inbox every day First time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up tfnn.com educating investors Are you looking for a secured investment which pays you on a monthly basis the target first mortgage program Maybe the program for you the best rate on a five-year cd in the country right now According to bankrate.com is paying one percent per year or one thousand dollars per 100 thousand dollars invested The target first mortgage program pays seven percent per year paid monthly on secured high value Buildable properties in st. Petersburg, florida The investment is for four years paying seven percent per year or seven thousand dollars per 100 thousand dollars invested Your investment is secured by high value real estate in st. Petersburg, florida Your investment can be anywhere from 100,000 to 500,000 Do you want to make 1,000 per year on 100,000 dollars invested a 7,000 per year on a secured tiger first mortgage? The tiger first mortgage program may be just the program for you The tiger first mortgage program pays seven percent per year paid monthly for more information You can call<PHONE_NUMBER>. That's<PHONE_NUMBER> Okay, folks. I posted a chart that i've been looking at for the last couple weeks. This is this uh Crude or the dow Jones when it was back way back in the coven thing You see coven hit we broke we rallied up to a 50 percent retracement on a four or five day pattern there I thought that's what we were going to do here on monday But we've extended it out to possibly seven days. This is really important folks because if the market would close lower today It would really be quite significant. It would tell what this market Something happened and it's very important and if it closes really strong heck, it could go up forever So that's the main thing to want to look at but that's what you can see these wild swings that we had this was You know, these were three and four thousand point swings in the uh Dow Jones, so that's not unusual. You can see we we've had a huge rally already But the fact that it stopped exactly at those numbers I mean that that's really hard to do when it did it in the s and p the nasdaq the russell Every single one of them. I mean that's that's the main thing and it was all related to what was happening with the Uh, you know google and the nasdaq has an axe deck went absolutely, you know crazy to the upside I've sold them trade at nasdaq It's a great thing to trade, but I sell them. I use the s and p In the dow Jones and the russell once in a while. That's uh pretty much what we're looking at here So, uh, we will have I believe stan harley will be our guest tomorrow and friday will be jeff huge I believe that's correct. I will check the calendar later. I want to apologize for For being I'm just tired folks. That's basically it and anyway, that's it Oh the sequel to that story on that day in january. It was my single best money day On a percentage basis that I ever had I had bigger much bigger days when I was uh in the when I was a player at Drexel we had days of half million dollars, but this was my biggest single day that I ever had I was short gold. I was short crude oil and along the s and p and the s and p left a gap that still never been filled That we didn't have overnight trading And uh that and what I did was at the end of the day I closed everything out and that was the dumbest thing I ever did I should have used a tom hugart approach and doubled up on everything because crude oil went to 11 dollars Hey, let's get back together tomorrow boys and girls. Live every day in an attitude of gratitude and may god bless


Merdwch wrth gweithio, wrth gweithio. I'm Kate McRill, I'm a PhD candidate in Health Psychology from the Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences. And today I'm talking about how media coverage of a drug switch can influence side effect reporting. But first, I'd like to clarify side effects. You see, side effects are not always due to the chemical components of a drug. Rydw i'n rhanol iawn awch. When a person expects to get side effects, this increases their bodily awareness. They start to notice various physical sensations, and then misattribute benign transient symptoms to a drug. This phenomenon was first demonstrated in randomised control drug trials, where the placebo group radddo i'r cyfeirwyr amdegwyd yn ysbynnal. Mae'r cyfoes â'r cyffredin … … o'r hwnnw ynddochion yn mynd i oedd y cybeirwyr. Rydych yn dda'n rhoi dda'r meddwl gyda mewn cyfeirwyr o'r cyfeirwyr… … o'r rhan o'r meddwl a chynebu i'r cyffredin ar hyn sy'n gymynghwys … … ond mae wedi mynd i'r meddwl i'r cyfeirwyr am statyn… … og yn arsyniatau canut arnaeth ymwysil. Felly, yn y cyfrifau twel ystafell a'r statyn… Tained therapy. Yn participant y blindad y treatment group, hefyd tydw i ddaf yn am군 o muscle pain. But as soon as they're told they're in staton group, there's a sudden increase in muscle related side effects. So as this in mind I want to talk about the New Zealand vanilla vaccine brand switch. So vanilla vaccine is a last line anti-depressant for treatment resistant depression. There are currently 45,000 New Zealanders taking vanilla faxine. For the past three years, Ffarmack has funded two types of this medication. There's a Fixor, Pfizer's original branded version, and a generic called Arabina vanilla faxine. But in 2017, through a competitive tender process, the funded brand has changed to another generic, Nlaffax, made by Milan. the aim of the switch was to save $19 million over five years and the savings would be used to fund other medicines. So these three drugs all contain the active ingredient venylifaxing and have been approved by Medsafe as being by-equivalent meaning they have the same efficacy, safety and side effects. So the only difference with enylifaxe compared to the other two .. simplicity. At 51, y cyfnod dwych yn effeithio gyda'r cypool. Mae'r cyfnod dweud bod yr angeni wedi y byddai'r byddahol.. .. sydd y cyfnod cyfnod bod gweithio'r byddai. Mae pob ei wneud fy modd y dal probyladiaeth gennym y cerdd... .. sydd yn hollu cael y siwrhau... .. dda'r bobl mwyaf sy'n bobl yn disgynnu... .. sy'n gweithio'r bobl wedi'u ganodig. Ac yn dweud cyfnod yr angeni y cyfnod yn cofod... .. rhai yna'r hyn deall y rheswyd yn gwneud.. and this was picked up by the media. On February 28, this year both the New Zealand Herald and Stuff Online released an article which discussed in detail the specific experience of two patients. The New Zealand Herald also listed the side effects that had been reported following the switch to end effects, Mae'r drwg yn eich bod yn dweud, ac mae'r dweud yn dweud yn gwybod. Rwy'n gwaith bod yn unrhyw ymwneud, rydyn ni'n gweithio'r llyfr yn ymwneud, ac mae'n ddych chi'n ddiweddio'r parwysau o'r ddwylo'n sgwrsiau yn ymddangos. Yn ymddangos i'r ddweud, mae'r ddweud yn ddwylo'n sgwrsiau ..an bwysig hiad bod i niwl sydd y cyfrifau cyflawn gyda'r bydd ar gyfer cyfrifau cyfrifau cyfrifau. Y costau fach iddo eich gweithiaid yddur i gael cyfrifau cyfrifau ar y centre ffobl yn cyfrifau cyfrifau cyfrifau... ..eg coriam, a drosio ddiwrnod ariadau sydd yn cyfrifau cyfrifau cyfrifau. Felly, rydyn ni'n mynd i gael ceisio eich cyfrifau cyfrifau cyfrifau... ..i gael ceisio y cyfrifau cyfrifau cyfrifau. Ond o dweud o ddechrau ni, mae gennymu sut y rhai cyfarchiaid yn rhywbeth ddim yn hystyried maen nhw'n ddweud. Er ffyrwm 2017 ar y gyfer y Ddllifat wyrddod 2018, mae gwirionedd rhai yn gweithio yn canuniaeth sydd wedi tynnu gif Punktau Creswell Cymru. Mae hynny yn dweud ddiweddaint y mae oedd hynny'n rhaid yn drws. Efallai os ydydd ynghylchu'r ysgolwyddiwyll arCOFs yn y cyd-rysiau y mlynebu ac mae y cyd-rysiau yn cyd-rysiau yn cyfarchiaid yn cyfarchiaid, ac five equally common side effects not mentioned in the media. And since the media coverage was released at the end of February and April, we compared the March and May averages for these outcomes with their pre-media monthly average using an interrupted time series analysis. So there were 100 adverse event reports in this time. 70% of reporters were female and the average age was 44. So what did we find? Well, there was a sudden increase in adverse event reporting in the months directly after the media coverage. There was a significant increase in the reports of decreased therapeutic response with an interruption effect of 15.49, meaning the difference between the pre-media average and the March and May average. The number of side effects reported also increased, going from an average of seven per month before the media focus to 65 in March and 33 in May. And when looking at the specific side effects mentioned in the media, all apart from fatigue and anxiety significantly increased, but the greatest change was for suicidal thoughts. However, there was very little change in the side effects not mentioned in the media. Only dizziness seemed to have a slight increase. So from these results, we can see that the media coverage of the vanilla vaccine brand switch was associated with a large increase in side effects and reports of decreased therapeutic response. And ultimately, the side effects mentioned in the media increased more than side effects that weren't mentioned. These results show the noceba effect in action and how the media can influence people's expectations about the experience of side effects from this drug, despite it being bio-equivalent to their previous medication. However, it should be noted that this is a snapshot of adverse event reporting. These are the people who voluntarily reported to come. So these results probably don't capture the full extent of the noceba effect. And we also don't know the outcomes or the consequences of these adverse event reports. But from the study, we can see that the noceba effect can be transmitted to a wide range of people very quickly and very easily through the media. We know from past research that the noceba effect is associated with non-adherence to medical treatment. So that is a likely consequence in this case, keeping in mind that this is an antidepressant. And as we saw in the results, the side effect that increased the most was suicidal thoughts, which is extremely concerning. So what can be done? Well, I'll leave you with two thoughts. Firstly, from the media side of things, there needs to be more balanced reporting. In the vanilla vaccine case, the media focused on two patients out of 45,000. So it's probably necessary to acknowledge that not everyone has or will experience these side effects. We could also educate the public about the noceba effect. See, people know a lot about placebo, but noceba is relatively unknown. We could use the media to spread information given its wide reach. And finally, to us, this may have seemed like a simple medicine switch. But some people, particularly those with depression, are more sensitive to medicine changes and need greater support managing this process. The support should have come from their health care professionals, their doctors, pharmacists, the gatekeepers of the medication, and not the media. Thank you.


there's a lot of new struggling insurance agents that watch our stuff, and you've been extremely successful, but you also have a way, well, from what I've seen, of communicating to those new and struggling agents as well as anybody, by the way. Thank you. So you guys that are on, keep watching, okay? And pay attention, take some notes. What are some things that you would share with somebody that isn't quite Galen Hendricks yet, but they believe in themselves and they know they can be one day? You know, I wasn't built overnight. You know, it took me a while to figure out what I really wanted to do. You know, for the longest, I thought I wanted to just run an insurance company. I wanted to be the COO, and then it was, you know, shortly in my career, I figured out that I really enjoyed marketing and I enjoyed sales and I enjoyed sales people. And I figured out, I had a mentor in this business who said, I think you do both. And I asked him one day, I said, do you think that's kind of like the rooster watching the henhouse, you know? And he was like, it probably is, but it'll teach you a lot of things. And it's kind of like you're running your own business. And so I really figured out how to balance those two. And I figured out fairly quickly that I really love helping people. And so what I always encourage new agents to do is smile when you're on that phone.  It's true. And I think the greatest thing about being a salesperson is we get to actually be happy. Yes. There's not a lot of jobs out there that you actually get to be happy. You know, happy's a verb in our world. We're happy's a noun. And if you're in a role that you don't get to be happy. And I think when salespeople appreciate operations people, you know, and operations people appreciate salespeople, it creates a camaraderie that everybody's supportive. And it doesn't mean they get along every single day. It doesn't mean one doesn't think one's not doing whatever. So if you're that new agent, what I would encourage you first is get to know your carriers, you know, get to know what their rules and policies and procedures are, get to know that person that's handling your business and make that person realize that you don't wanna keep making the same mistakes. You know, you wanna be better and they'll start encouraging you and the more you're encouraged, it's kinda like that bless to be a blessing. The more you're encouraged, the more you encourage. And I think that overall attitude is great. Now that sounds so cliche. So how do you do that? Well, one is you've got to start being successful. The only thing that makes you happy as a salesperson is to make sales. So you have to figure out how to get that done.  You need to listen to them. If you keep doing it the same old way, you're gonna keep getting the same old results and the same old goose eggs gonna create negativity. So find somebody that you want to be like, that you want to emulate and take up their habits. You know, that's kinda what I did. I watched people that I wanted to be like. And so two of those instrumental people, I only got to meet one of them and it was during a Sunday school class. So my dad, as y'all know, some of you have watched this and seen before is that he handed me two books because I didn't have very good instructors when I first started in sales because the guy that ran our organization, I don't think he saw in me initially, what he saw in me later. So that's another thing y'all need to remember. Just because somebody doesn't see you and see that in you right now, don't give up. They'll see it in you eventually if you have the motivation and the drive. So keep truckin', okay? I know that's a 70s thing, but keep on. I like it. But I think what you need to do is, find that person. And Zig Ziglar and Norman Vincent Pill, my dad handed me two books. I brought both those books to MedicareCon. And I gave those away and I signed those books and I took pleasure signin' those books. But Norman Vincent Pill, I didn't get to meet but I will tell you what, a book he wrote in 1963, the year I was born, is more relative today than I think it was when he wrote it. And it's about being the optimistic mind in a realistic world. And one of the things that I'm gonna give y'all a little tip on, I'm gonna talk to you guys at 8% Nation about how to be extraordinary in ordinary times. You know, we're in a very ordinary time. People think it's a different time for our world. It's not. Our world has gone through these changes over and over and over. And guess what, people survived them. People thrived in those times. You need to be a thriver, not a survivor.  I'm gonna tell you need to thrive. You know, it's time to thrive. It's time to stand out. And so when you read Norman Vincent Peale, you just can't help but get excited. Zig Ziggler, you know, I got to meet him. He was teaching Sunday school at, I believe it's Preston Wood Baptist Church. Zig Ziggler was teaching Sunday school. Every Sunday. Are you kidding me? No, every Sunday. What? And I got invited to go by a friend. She goes, I think we can just walk in. And I was like, oh my gosh, I'm sure we'll have to take it. Wait, where at? I think it's Preston Wood Baptist Church. Somebody can check. That was in, that's in Texas? Uh-huh. And so we walk in and he's teaching Sunday school. And I am just like, Starstrap. I'm getting goosebumps right now. I know, I love him. And I tell all new people, Reed's see you at the top. Believe you're gonna be at the top.   Steve, yeah. Oh my gosh. I was trying to guess who the person was and I was thinking about the guy that started Sun Records and I was thinking about the guy that started this. And it ended up being Simon Cowell. Yeah. You know, most people would not tell you that Simon Cowell started that way.  Right, exactly. But he didn't. He worked hard to get there and he deserves our respect. That's another thriver. That's it. And I think one of the things that we've all gotten so hooked on is just how to survive. Yeah. That's the bottom of the barrel, y'all. That's right. Set your goals higher. Be a thriver. And that's probably something we're gonna start doing, Cody. We need to brand that right down today. We do, we do. I just thought about it. We do. Kitted with your people, I'm Dr. Seuss. But you know, in order to survive, I think you have to thrive. And so I wanna see all of you young agents do that. You know, hey, follow me on Queen of the Bundle. If there's anything I can do to help you, that's one of the things that I think the women need to focus on. Bundle cell. You can package cell better than anybody because you can talk about cancer. You can talk about short-term recovery care. You know, you can talk about products that other people are like, ah, I don't need that product. I got these renewals. I don't need anything else. You know what, those guys one day are gonna wake up just like they do to me today and go, how did you get there?  And that's how I passed you to the finish line. That's your goal. That's it. Get to the finish line. I wanna go back to what you're saying a few minutes ago, too. It kinda seemed, it kinda tied back to me when you talk about surviving, a thriving versus surviving. I really believe a lot of that it's a decision. It's a mindset. It's a belief. It's a confidence. And I really see a lot of agents in our business, at least 92%, struggle with personal confidence. I'd love for you to speak on that because you have a lot of personal confidence. You see a lot of other successful people. They have a lot of personal confidence. Yeah, they've had plenty of wins to build their confidence along the way. Some agents are going out there, they're getting goose eggs every day. And they're not seeing wins, which is only gonna detract from their personal confidence. It really takes people back when I tell them at my first job that I had no confidence. I had very low self-esteem. It's so hard to believe seeing you now. I had a mentor. I wanted to go to college like everybody else and it still blows everybody away that I don't have a college education, but I don't have to look much further than Sam Walton or some people up the street here in Nebraska that are pretty daggum famous. But I will tell you that I had a mentor. Her name was Twyla Offill. When I first started working for her name was Twyla Folsom. She ended up marrying a guy that I went to school with daughter, I mean, his, okay, start over. Jennifer Offill's dad ended up marrying Twyla and ended up being the love of her life. But it was interesting, she hired me at 17 and she said, you're gonna be awesome.  If I hear you use the word can't, bad news. So I got rid of that word very quick in my vocabulary. And one day I was struggling with some stuff and she goes, hey, maybe you ought to seek out counseling. I was like, not crazy, you know? And she goes, no, no, no, I want you to seek out counseling and I know the United Way works on budgets. I wasn't making much money, you know? And I was living on baloney and cheese and the occasional $7 happy hour, that's how I eat dinner, you know?  Hey, I just ate it, because you know.  And I did not like baloney as a kid, but you know, when you're broke and wanna prove something, you'll make sacrifices. And I think making those sacrifices early on in my life is what created the confidence and created the want to in me. But I went to counseling and it was interesting. This counselor said, what do you wanna do in life? That was the first session. It's a good question. And I said, well, I didn't know that you were gonna ask me that. And he goes, well, but what do you wanna do? He goes, I've asked you now. The question's out of the bag.  So that's out of the bag. And he goes, well, what do you wanna do? And I said, well, my dad wants to be in the insurance business. I don't wanna be in the insurance business. And he said, well, what do you wanna do? And I said, I want to be great. And I don't feel like I have greatness in me. And he goes, okay, well, then that's what we're gonna work on. And I was with that counselor for about a year. And I won't say I was like a superstar overnight, but I got lots of promotions at the Lubbock Avalanche Journal. It was the only newspaper for miles around. And I just was encouraged to be as great as I could be there. But I was also that employee y'all that I got talked to about every other Friday. Galen, I need you to be quiet. Galen, I don't need you to talk to your neighbor. Galen, I need you to be more productive. Galen, Galen, Galen. And I would cry every Friday. I don't see that meshing well with Galen injuries. I would cry every Friday and I would come back in on Monday determined to not have to get back in there another Friday. And when I left the Avalanche Journal, it was the most crazy thing that they did for me. They built me this scrapbook and everybody took a picture and they wrote quotes down under their picture that they heard me say every other day. And I treasured that scrapbook. That's awesome. And it set me on the right path. It was like I never ever questioned being great again because I knew if I could make it there, I could make it just about anywhere I went. Hey, if you enjoyed this, I got another one you're gonna love. It's right there. Click on it. See you in there. You generate a ton of inbound leads from social media, from Facebook, organically like referrals friggin galore. You are the king.


Well, James, thank you so much for taking the time to speak with me today and to join this conversation series that we have at King's College London. I thought I might start the discussion by going back to the eve of the 60th anniversary of the United Nations when the Secretary General endorsed and presented the report of a high-level panel on threats, challenges and change. And one of the things he said in there, that the sort of six kind of clusters of threats that we really need to be concerned about now and in the future, one of those was transnational organized crime. Now I'm wondering, when you see things like that in a document, you obviously wonder why it was included at the time, but also whether that was just, as it were, the fashionable thing and the right thing to do. There has been a lot of emphasis since the early 90s on human security and so on and so forth. So what I'm getting at is what was new about the nature of that particular threat. But also, I think the other thing I want you to perhaps to get on to later is how that threat has evolved and changed. And in particular, perhaps draw on some of the work that I know you have done and are still doing on the relationship between criminal and political power. So why did the SG include it at the time and how has the threat evolved? Great questions, Matt. And just to begin, thanks so much for including me in this series. It's great to be part of it and to have the chance to talk with you again about this topic that we've been noodling away at for a while now. I think your question is helpful in that it places the high level panel report in its time. And we have to treat the document on those terms. I think the short answer, I'd say, as to why organized crime was included in there was as a reminder. But I mean that in a particular way. And so let me actually just step back further in history back to the early 90s to give a sense of how we got to that moment in 2004 and why the SG and the panel felt it necessarily to have that reminder. Of course at the UN, the early 90s were a period of high optimism about the potential of multilateralism. Cold War was over. The stalemate in the Security Council, the blockage had been removed structurally. There was a chance now for new world order. There's a very positive feeling about the potential of international cooperation and globalization. But then as the 90s unfolded, we also saw particularly in places like Italy with the mafia posing a direct threat to the state killing Falco and Amgos Alino, that there were emerging actors on the international stage and some in fact saw corporations in this regard, which seemed to be beginning to show signs of agency at the international level, of acting independently of states, of contesting their power, of controlling violence, deploying violence in interesting ways, and increasingly across borders in Eastern Europe, in Latin America, to some extent West Africa, there were there were at least in the minds of some Western intelligence analysts growing signs of the emergence of these transnational groups. So we get to 1999 and the US and Italy pushed for the creation of an international framework to deal with organized crime for the first time, the so-called Palermo Protocol. But then just as that's beginning to be implemented, we have 9-11. And suddenly terrorism takes over as the bogeyman on the international stage. So the focus is no longer on organized crime as the shared other, apart from states, the enemy of all mankind. Now it's on terrorism. And organized crime pretty rapidly recedes into the background. People who worked on organized crime in all the bureaucracies at the time have told me they essentially had to frame everything they were doing in terrorism terms to get any access to resources or to policymakers' attention. But the contrast between the way the UN dealt with organized crime and the way it began dealing with counterterrorism was quite strong. So the organized crime framework, the Palermo Protocol, was a classic treaty, is a classic interstate consent of all involved approach to dealing with this external actor. Whereas the approach that the UN began to adopt on counterterrorism was really quite different. Many of your viewers will know all about the tendency of the Security Council to adopt a more legislative approach to dictate norms that member states would have to internalize. And that began to be seen quite quickly as a sign of UN overreach. And then, of course, we had the slide into Iraq, the tragedy there, the very strong sense that the West had melded the concept of or really adulterated the concept of counterterrorism for quite different and distinct purposes. And then all the very difficult issues with the relationship between the US and the NAN, I think, and the NAN was really at a low point in his secretary of generalship at the time the panel was working. It was seen as an opportunity for a reset, a reframing and a reminder that there was this other way of doing business. So I think it was partly about reminding the international community that had become rather preoccupied with terrorism that if we were thinking in long-term trends, the changing threat posed by organized crime was worthy of attention. But I think it was also a gentle way to remind the community of states, of members of the United Nations, that there was this other law-based way of cooperating to deal with these external non-state actor threats. That's how I see it really as an opportunity for the SG to remind the membership of the potential of the UN in that way. I wonder whether, I mean, if we take the story forward and how the nature of the threat has evolved, and I wonder also whether the potency of the threat and the ways in which it has been affected by technological change, and we didn't discuss that now, but 2004 it makes us or me at any rate begin to look old because that's quite a long time ago and quite a great deal has happened already since then.  But what other developments, perhaps already at the time, but even since then have given sort of add and urgency to the ability of transnational organized criminal networks to operate and pose a threat? Yeah, I think you're absolutely right, Matt, to start with this idea of technological change. So already in the Palermo Protocol and the focus on transnational organized crime, there was a recognition that organized criminal groups that had traditionally been seen as fairly parochial and a problem for individual states to deal with were tapping into the mechanisms, the technological infrastructure of communications of lower cost transport, the regulatory infrastructure around globalization to transnationalize. And that's a very important empirical part of the story. But when you look back at the depictions of transnational organized crime in those days, to be frank, they seem a little quaint. And the way that we treated this issue in the zeitgeist, you go back and watch the blockbusters of the 1990s. And the villains in those movies tend to be essentially classical organized crime writ large on a global stage. And what I think we missed in that story at the time was the way that organized crime tapping into that global system of globalization would actually change the relationship between the actors in those quote unquote criminal groups and elites, political and business elites, because many of the things that the organized criminal groups wanted to get out of globalization, in particular, the disembedding of capital from local territorial control. So tax havens, the ability to move capital offshore, the ability to work through shell companies. All of that infrastructure was equally something of interest to political and other, in some cases, for example, military elites around the world. So it led to the emergence of this kind of dislocated disembedded to use John Rugby's term, or to turn that on its head, neoliberal globalization, where elites were existing on a transnational plane, but not necessarily anchored into local tax structures or local security structures to control governmental power. And so it's that shift in the nature of the governmental system that comes with globalization that I think we missed in our earlier narratives around this, and that has had a pretty profound effect for our understanding of what this means from a security perspective. Now, I don't mean by emphasizing this transnational aspect to suggest that this doesn't have a local aspect. What we see you and we look at organized crime is that, like politics, it's all very, very local. It's often about control down to the level of city blocks and the provision of services. They might be very simple social or market regulation services. It might be the provision of violence itself, that's the key service that's needed, or the control of violence. But what we see time and again from, for example, Kingston in Jamaica, through to Afghanistan, through to some of the conflicts in Africa is that local armed groups, when they get access to the infrastructure of globalization to transnational trafficking networks for arms, in some cases for people for drugs, they can tap into those flows and their control of territory allows them to extract rents from controlling the passage of goods or value through that territory. And it just transformed the game and allowed them to move up the value chain to develop wealth and power and military capability that they hadn't previously been able to develop, making them rivals to states in many places for the control of legitimate violence. And I say the control of legitimate violence because it's not just control of violence, they often compete in the sphere of legitimacy. And this is where, in a way, paradoxically, we actually come back to the transnational story, because I think our failure earlier on to foresee the convergence of criminal methodologies with the methodologies of state controlling elites, and indeed with intelligence services has meant that we weren't prepared for the convergence of statecraft and criminal activity, particularly around subversion and the use of information operations, the use of compromise and blackmail and extortion are on a really industrialized scale, and often working through criminal actors. Now, this has a long history where we can go back, as I did in my book Hidden Power, to look at the way that, for example, the US worked through the mafia to achieve both military and political objectives offshore. And in fact, we have some evidence from the archival record that some of those techniques were directly learned by the CIAM before at the OSS from the British and the French who were using the same techniques in the Middle East. But I think it was tactical at that point. And what we see now is a more strategic convergence of strategic thinking and methods between some of the criminal groups and some of the, some states in their development and deployment of power internationally. But I think that, in a way, you sort of mentioned your book Hidden Power. And of course, what you just mentioned goes to the heart of that, which I think is one of the most significant and important contributions that hold relationship between criminal and political power. And in a way, you're challenging sort of very traditional notions of crime being fundamentally essentially about profit making, that there is a much more complex relationship. I think another aspect of that, which you do bring out though, that if this is the nature of the problem, and of course, we're talking a little bit in generalities, we haven't mentioned any countries or groups or anything, but if the nature of the problem has changed, then some of the traditional state-centric law enforcement mechanism for dealing with that, treaty-based legalistic approaches are themselves going to be difficult and of limited value and problematic. And I wonder whether what you are suggesting, not necessarily how to deal with the problem, but how do we adjust, how do the UN, for example, adjust to the reality of the changing nature between criminal and political power? And again, I think we are very careful, as opposed to the two of us are not mentioning specific names, but there are certain countries that have key member states of the United Nations, not just the United Nations, but permanent members of the Security Council that are often been drawn into the debate about the interface between criminal and political power. Indeed, your book and your thesis opens with a wonderful quote from the former director of the CIA, which I can't remember at the moment, which goes right to the heart of the problem. So I wonder what you think the broader implications of this shift really are? Yeah, that's a penetrating question. The quote that you reference is a wonderful quote from an appearance, as you say, a former CIA head before Congress, an inquiry, talking about how if you run into a certain well-dressed gentleman in a hotel lobby on the banks of Lake Geneva and have a conversation, and he essentially makes you an offer to do X or Y, you may leave that conversation not really knowing if you've dealt with someone in the commercial intelligence business, in the state intelligence business or the criminal intelligence business, or indeed if it's one person playing all three roles. And he being American, he's talking there about a Russian adversary. But I also made the point, I think fairly early in the book, that if you look at the five permanent members, we can actually find, with fairly high confidence, episodes in their fairly recent past for each of the five permanent members, where they've worked quite deliberately through criminal groups to develop and project power internationally. So I don't think it's just empirically, it doesn't necessarily make sense to see this as emerging from a particular national or even bureaucratic culture. These techniques, it's a bit of an arms race to develop and deploy these techniques between different security intelligence services. But what I do think is interesting and is going on now is, to come back to the earlier part of your question, Matt, is this challenge that the emergence of criminal methods in fairly nakedly in the politics of some countries, and I would argue, even in the last four or five years in the United States, the challenge that poses to our conception of a liberal international order. Now, some people would argue that the UN Charter is not a particularly liberal document, that the human rights agenda frankly came along later and has been in some ways overlaid over what is essentially a fairly realist and balanced and power spheres of influence-based document. But it's quite clear now that if we're going to accept an intertwining of political and criminal methodologies internationally, it is a real challenge to our conception of a rule of law, both domestically and certainly internationally. And we now have certain powers, and I'm thinking openly here of China, that are projecting a vision of legalized international relations that certainly western scholars say translates better as rule by law than rule of law, and which has at its core a vision of common humanity of mankind or humankind that is very much based on the horizontal relationship between states and not interfering in the vertical relationship between states and their citizens. And that's a fundamentally different proposition, I think, going forward, including for how we regulate the relationship between states on the one hand, non-state armed groups using criminal methods on the other hand, and people. If foreign states are not, if it's not legitimate for foreign states to look inside that triangle, then it leaves much greater space for people to be exploited and ruled through criminal and or violent means. I wonder whether I might move on, although it is very much related because you touched on it, to look at, and it isn't really discussed at length in the high-level panel report, but how the sort of operational environments and settings into which UN have found themselves thrust, either as peace-building missions or peacekeeping missions, have often been distinguished by the presence of criminal networks engaged either in opportunistic criminal violence of a more systematic kind. Now, you have written in the past, I think, very interestingly about the kinds of challenges that poses for the UN or for UN field operations, one of which, I mean, you mentioned earlier the competition for legitimacy, particularly in very weak and fragile states where the state is unable or never has, perhaps, provided sort of fundamental public goods that you and I expect from the state, that void has been felt by criminal networks and therefore they enjoy a degree of legitimacy.  I mean, I think you have mentioned in the past that the root of combat, as it were, might not be the right one simply because you don't have the resources to do it, but also if you do decide to combat organized crimes in these zones, you are actually provoking a reaction locally because they enjoyed legitimacy and destabilizing the mission and making things more difficult. I wonder what your thoughts are on the way that whole debate has evolved. You fell out there, James. Can you hear me? You froze briefly, James. Matt, hello. Hi, James. That's fine. I can hear you again. Can you hear me? Yes, sorry about that and sorry to your listeners. So to come to your question, I think the challenge here is twofold. The first is actually a challenge in terms of the ability of the UN to compete with these groups in conflict environments. And I'll come to that in a minute, but where I want to actually start is the second part of the challenge, which is really a challenge of perception. That it's going to be hard to compete if you can't actually see the adversary and understand its capabilities and indeed its intent. And when I started working on these issues in the UN context, I'd previously worked as the head of the Transnational Crime Unit in the Australian Attorney General's Department. And when I came to the UN context, it was around 2005, so soon after the high-level panel. And what I realized at the UN very quickly was that this issue was actually deeply marginal in the sense that the state representatives, and even I would say many, if not the vast majority of UN officials in the secretariat and certainly funds programs and agencies, saw organized criminal groups, saw organized criminal activity as really peripheral to the central issues of the day. And what I came to understand fairly soon was that the UN is a club of by and for member states. And these aren't member states. So just as the UN is kind of reluctant to take corporations on their own terms, it was reluctant to take these groups on their own terms. Everything was seen through the lens of seeing like a state. And so there was a lack of awareness, I would say, of the reality on the ground of the actual governing power that many of these groups exercise, particularly in or even in because this is where the UN does have eyes and ears and boots on the ground, even in organized crime, sorry, in armed conflict contexts. And in those contexts, what we often saw was groups that might have a political manifestation or agenda or be perceived by the UN as fairly classical insurgents or non-state armed actors were because of this same logic of globalization that I talked about before, increasingly being drawn into organized criminal activity. Didn't mean they were necessarily giving up their political face or the political aspirations, but parts of the group would be increasingly sucked into the criminal activity. Those parts would become richer, more powerful, more important for the military capabilities, the access to munitions and weapons, and begin to dominate, as we saw, for example, in Northern Ireland, begin to dominate the agenda, the internal agenda, the organization of the armed group, even as the outside was ostensibly still a political military framing. And in the high-level panel, this was framed in terms of state failure. So I think that tells you the extent to which it's all seen from the perspective of the state, and there's a vacuum here, there's nothing there. Therefore, the policy prescription is to project the state back into that space, not recognizing that there might actually be a governing entity or an entity. That's fine, James. Can you hear me? You're coming back in again. I've lost your sound. No worry, I can hear you. Can you hear me? Okay. Yes, I can now. No problem. So I apologize. No worries. Something's clearly unstable here. I was just saying there's a great new paper by Chris Blatman and others, looking at what happens when a state projects power into a space that it believes is ungoverned or potentially right for criminal governance. And classically, we might think if the state projects power, then the criminal actor is going to back off. But what they find is actually the opposite. Amongst them, there are many, many rich findings in this hugely important paper. But they find that this is what I want to pull out here. They find that actually that's the moment when the criminal actor, if it's looking to exercise governmental power, and it may not want to be the top political dog, but it might want to exercise influence from below as a hidden power, as I say in my book. That's where it ups its game and it increases its service provision. It increases its security provision to remind the customer base, the citizens of what it can do for them. When the state's not there competing for that customer base, often it neglects those people to some extent. It just does the minimum necessary to maintain their loyalty. But so the UN wasn't necessarily expecting that kind of pushback when it projected power into these places. And what we find time and again is that it really struggles to read that strategic environment. It literally does not have the staff with the skill sets to understand what's going on in the illicit and informal economies and to read who has power in those economies in situations which the state and formal markets are not well established. So it really struggles whether it's in Afghanistan, in the connections between insurgents and the drug trade, or in Eastern DRC understanding the relationship between different armed groups and informal and illegal trade in minerals and later in wildlife, or in Haiti looking at the way that local armed groups engage in criminal activity, extortion, kidnappings. It really struggles to read who is who, what is what, and to project a strategic dynamic scenario where to war game it out. If I go in with this much power, then now come back with this. It just struggles time and again and misses I would say a big part of the game of what's going on in those places as a result. The one place where there is a really interesting experiment is in Haiti between about 2004 and 2008 where the UN does actually seem to learn. And this has a lot to do with the command structure and the force structure at the time with a big Brazilian presence that had learned from a pacification of the favelas, in particularly Rio, not a great track record necessarily. A lot of harm projected onto civilians in some of those domestic operations. And that is repeated, some would say, in the bidonville of Haiti, that there are overly heavy-handed military operations. There's actually a UN special rapporteur, Philip Alston, who at the time looks into whether there are civilian deaths caused by the UN operation in Haiti. But there is internal learning within the force and they do develop a more sophisticated plan of operations, including use of criminal informants to develop criminal intelligence, a fusion centre within the force to combine different forms of intelligence, use of aerial surveillance to understand what's going on in these very dense favela like bidonville. And there is a more successful military intervention, highly revealing about what it takes kind of investment and capabilities required to achieve success militarily against these groups. But then, no follow-up. Well, that's a little unfair. There is follow-up, there's some work around decommissioning of these groups, attempts to adapt DDR methodologies. But they're not successful and frankly, they don't receive the same kind of resourcing and follow-through as the military effort achieved. And my article on this is called the futility of force to make this point, that you may be able to develop an effective military intervention against these groups. But ultimately, they do operate, not just on a military, but on an economic and indeed a small P political level. And if there is not a political strategy for winning the loyalty of the people in those places back to the state, then over time, these groups or new groups using the same methods will emerge that occupy that space, that develop the governmental power that that gap offers. Well, I think your point that you made initially about the UN being a club by and for member states is critical. And I think it remains a sort of fundamental obstacles to thinking and getting a grasp of the strategic environment you just sketched. I mean, you might find willingness among some members of the secretariat and some evidence within missions that they realize the situation is more complex. But that fundamental membership nature of things, I think, is always going to be a bit of a challenge. I wonder, James, thank you so much for spending all this time. I do want to bring us up, if I may, to your current work. Going back and having looked again this morning at the high level report we mentioned a few times, in terms of specific examples, it does actually refer to human trafficking. It doesn't say all that much. And I think the recommendations for how to tackle it are very sort of limited. But you are now involved in working specifically on this issue, trafficking and modern slavery. And as you suggested in a separate conversation with me, you do see elements of sort of criminal governmentality shaping trends here as well. And I wonder whether you could say a little bit about that work. I mean, the scourge of modern slavery is a horrific one, and it certainly does deserve attention. I wonder whether you could give us a sense of your current work on this. Yeah, happily, Matt. I was one of these people who sort of found their way sideways into this issue. And only when I really grappled with its scale did I have a sense of how it dwarfed some of the other things I've been dealing with. The ILO estimates that 40.3 million people were enslaved in 2016. And just to give you a sense, that's roughly one in every 185 people alive today. When you think about that, that's basically the size of the high school class that I had when I went through high school. It's pretty astonishing. Now, it's not, it's very unlikely that any of those 185 people I went to school with have been enslaved, which means that in somebody else's high school class, two people were enslaved. It's not distributed evenly around the world. It's somewhat uneven, but it's also pretty astonishing just how ubiquitous it is. In the UK, for example, the official estimate from the government is that there are 10 to 13,000 people in modern slavery at any given time. And some estimates actually suggest that that might be an order of magnitude too low. So it might be up over 100,000. And what we mean by modern slavery is essentially that one person is being controlled as if they were owned by another. So it's a total loss of agency. The great theorist of slavery, Orlando Patterson, described that as social death. Now, the UN comes at this from multiple different angles, depending on the particular framing of different funds, programs and agencies. So the main frame for the last 20 years has been around trafficking in persons. Seeing this as a form of exploitation conveyed by transnational organized crime, the connection to the issue we've just been discussing. But for many, many decades, the ILO has been working on the related problem of forced labor. And also in the in Geneva, in the UN human rights infrastructure, we have a whole separate set of mechanisms dealing with slavery per se and slavery, slavery like practices is the term of art. And the danger here is that you have different parts of the UN holding different parts of the elephant and not necessarily seeing the big picture. So when you start to look at that big picture, you begin to realize that while there is no doubt there are very powerful, dangerous transnational organized criminal groups involved in both people trafficking and people smuggling, the difference being that smuggling doesn't necessarily lead to exploitation. There's also deep structural drivers, particularly in the way we organize global value chains, supply chains, that allow the wholesale systemic exploitation of vulnerable people in weak institutional environments. And it might not be organized crime that's generating this outcome, it might actually be legitimate business. So legitimate business that is looking to offshore work down through long global supply chains, again, a product of globalization to go back to what we discussed earlier, and is increasingly disarticulating the structure of that supply chain so that the large parts of profit are captured at the top. And most of the risk falls to the workers at the bottom of the supply chain, who work often in very precarious conditions. So, for example, the iPhone, you know, 40% of all of the profit goes to Apple, everything else is divvied up along the supply chain. But the people who mine the coltan and other precious minerals in eastern DRC, back to that actual UN intervention case we're talking about earlier, are getting in some cases literally nothing, they're often working off a bonded debt, and in many other cases, next to nothing. Or take the case in the UK of Boohoo, the online fashion retailer, you know, that's an interesting case, because it's not a case where we have a long transnational supply chain. It's the internet and internet sales that have been the technological change, driving exploitation, just within the shores of the UK, but still the same situation of weak regulation, allowing exploiters to exploit vulnerable people. In the UK case, they're often migrants with limited language skills and working in informal and poorly regulated work contexts. So, when as a social scientist, as I began to understand the scale of these problems, you know, it was quite a magnitude different to some of the issues I dealt with previously in terms of the scale of abuse and its ongoing nature. And then as a policy researcher, I began thinking, well, what are the levers that we're not pulling to achieve change here? And one of the things, when I was at the UN University of Centre Policy Research, we identified two levers that we thought needed to be brought into this discussion. One was high finance. So, when we look at how abolition has been achieved at scale, historically, high finance has played a key role, including in the UK. Abolition in the West Indies was only achieved through the largest syndicated loan in history at that point, organised by the Rothschild Bank, which was only paid off by the UK taxpayer about eight or 10 years ago, the last interest on that loan over 180 years. And the money, of course, didn't go to pay off or compensate the slaves or the victims. It was to buy out the slaveholders, to give them enough income to move them away from that business model and into one based on free labour. So we worked at UNU to develop an initiative called Finance Against Slavery and Trafficking, which works with banks and investors and governments all around the world. We have an initiative in Asia Pacific where institutional investors with around six trillion US dollars under management are working with companies to address these issues. And then the other big lever that we didn't see being pulled was the development sector. When you look at the practice of development actors, it's kind of back to what we were just talking about with the UN and the high level panel. Organised crime and trafficking and forced labour are seen as very peripheral issues, not central to key questions of productivity, GDP growth, labour force participation, things like that. So we've just published a report called Developing Freedom, which shows how slavery actually impedes development. We identify 10 different vectors, 10 drags on development. And of course, the corollary of that is that if you tackle those drags, if you remove them, they're actually going to unleash significant growth by giving people back their agency, their control of their own labour and how the money from that labour is consumed, spent or invested, you have all of these beautiful knock on effects that run not only throughout the economy, but actually, we have strong empirical evidence through multiple generations. In Africa, for example, one Harvard economist has identified that 72% of the income disparity between African countries and other developing nations is directly attributable to the participation of that country in the transatlantic slave trade, because there's enough diversity in Africa that you can see how much the participation for how long in that transatlantic slave trade affected its multi-generational growth, innovation, productivity, female participation, population growth, all of these things are factors that tie into sustainable development over time. So it's been very eye-opening for me and really, again, goes to this central point that when we're thinking about organised criminal activity at scale, we have to be very careful not to see the problem just within the narrow confines of our traditional mindsets and our state-based approaches. In this case, it's all about seeing how the system develops along the global value chain and organising responses along that value chain, which requires not just interstate cooperation, but working, for example, with business in a pretty profoundly new way, a real challenge for the global development system. That's an extremely good note on which to end. I think I will get from you the detailed references of that report, which I know is about to come out if it hasn't been released yet, because I think there'll be a lot of interest to what strikes me as fairly path-breaking work on the challenge of modern slavery, looking both at high finances that have a development side contribution to it. Thank you. It has actually just come out. It's at developingfreedom.org, if anyone wants to visit. Excellent. I'll put that up on the site as well. James, thank you so much for taking time to do this. I thought it was absolutely terrific and will be of great interest to students and others who watch this, partly because it ties into so many of the different sort of weekly thematic issues we've been looked at from specifically organised crime, but also to efforts at peace building and state building, the political economy of conflict, and how these things are tied together. As you rightly said, one of the challenges we face is to try to step outside the tendency to look through traditional prisms of analysis, and particularly a state-centric framework, which is still very powerful, at least because the UN is set up that particular way. But once again, James, thank you so much, and we will no doubt ask you back again. Hopefully, you can come to London and we'll be there in sort of physical presence after this wretched pandemic is all over. I would appreciate that. I'd enjoy that. And, Matt, before we sign off, just a thank you not only for this opportunity, but for your guidance and mentorship over quite a long time now, I guess, that's part of a decade. And it's really been a pleasure. And to anyone out there who's ever thinking of trying to convince Matt to be a PhD supervisor, do it. He's fantastic if you can get him. Thanks so much. Thank you very much.