Hello everyone and welcome to another podcast broadcast of this weekend science. Oh Apparently once again, we are having trouble Broadcasting to Facebook. I don't know what's going on there Start go do save make happen Facebook. No, of course not But anyway, we're on YouTube and twitch right now If you have friends who would be watching on Facebook tell them they should head on over to youtuber twitch This is what we do every week Wednesdays 8 p.m. Pacific time this week in science talks about science Things that we like to talk about things that you want to hear about things that we all want to connect over and make our brains go Yeah, hit that like button share button boop-boop-boop algorithm fun button and I don't know. This is what we do and some of it will be edited for the podcast version Of course, so are we ready to go Justin? Absolutely Absolutely One hundred one hundred one hundred and fifty percent Did I cut my head off again, I did I think so anyway That's like the extra zoom The one shot I'm not ready for it. Oh and just as the show was getting started. I was Telling Justin that it appears. There are spiders little teeny tiny spiders everywhere all over my studio Suddenly go tiny the little babies are gonna get bigger But not during the show not during the show they should remain the same size. I love nature. I love it Okay, so let's start this show. Welcome everyone. Thank you for joining us starting the show in three two This is Twist this week in science episode number 940 recorded on Wednesday, August 23rd When will science solve aging? I know this is something that we all want to know. I'm dr. Kiki And we're gonna fill your head tonight with consciousness doom and a toilet, but first Disclaimer disclaimer disclaimer human culture It's a somewhat unavoidable aspect of being human for some cultures the entirety of what being alive entails for others Culture is just an accumulation of conditioned behaviors and responses wrapped around a population branch like an Opportunistic vine taking roots separately from the tall timber of humanity Culture can be a beautiful and Culture can be an ugly thing It can bring people together and it can tear them apart and When it comes to science human culture can be studied as though cultured in a dish When studied humans microbes plants and animals can all be said to participate in some Form of cultural exchange from cell signaling and aerosolized hormones to mating displays and language What separates the human animal from nature is that human culture has become a replacement For the natural strategies of survival Making cultures seem much more important than it actually is Though there is one culture above all others that has become Absolutely critical to the future of human survival the culture of this week in science coming up next And a good science to you too Justin We want to wish Blair another big congratulations. She shared a first picture of the little new Bambino on this week It's very exciting Wow Blair's mama. She's been a mama for like a week now. It's like this is amazing. Oh my goodness Well, we don't know how soon we'll see her again on this program That's a conversation for another day, but what this show is going to discuss is Science because that's what you have come to expect from us all the science that we Feel fit to bring to the show. So what are we going to bring? Tonight to this week in science. We have a great show bull of I've got a moon landing light-powered magnets Martian colonists fly medicine bird news a slippery toilet and more Wow, what do you have that sounds jam-packed? I know There is what do I have I have thinking conscious AI Music for cells population overshoot and the end of humanity Those two things population overshoot and if humanity they kind of seem like they completely different stories Which could be totally related Doom Well, not too much doom today. Let's try and have some optimism and that section of the show will be Heavily doomed influenced just just as a warning. It'll be come at the end of the show because It'll be brave be bold be willing to hear it or turn off the show right now Okay, if you are not turning off the show and you've never heard us before and you're just finding us and you're going What is going on here? I need to subscribe then you need to head over to Whatever podcast platform or wherever you are and hit the subscribe button, but additionally we are pretty much on every podcast platform basically YouTube Twitch Facebook we live stream every Wednesday 8 p.m. Pacific time ish and If you need to find out about stories in the show, we have links and other information at our website twist.org You ready to go let's do it mash those like buttons because now it's time for the You've been watching too many influencers. I don't watch influencers Must be this is like my child watches influencers and so I hear it in the back room Just gently click on the icon that will recommend the show to others. You don't need to mash or smash I mean, that's for potatoes and grapes, right? Yeah Big news this week everyone in the space industry Especially people in India are very excited about the successful landing of India's Chandara, oh wait, I'm gonna make the name. I'm gonna I gotta get the name. I gotta get it right the chandray on three on The southern pole of the moon They released their lander which is going to robe the southern pole of the moon The big research question is is The southern pole of the moon full of frozen water that we could possibly use for people it's a big question and this is a very exciting moment as in 2019 they had a failed attempt to land on them on the moon, but now they have released the rover they're going to be running experiments and This is like just a couple of days after Russia's luna 25, which was headed kind of to the same space crashed Didn't work out so well for them on that The exciting thing I think also is that India was able to and I don't know the math how the math specifically works out on this but they are reporting that this Chandra on three mission cost 75 million dollars That they were able to successfully do this for 75 million dollars I I really would love to see the comparative math and what they're counting in the accounting for that, but yeah What's exciting is that we are now at the southern pole of the moon. We are able to do investigate these research questions And it also is really bringing India into the The lunar environment, so it's the fourth country to definitely land on the moon and it is Really going to set the pace for the space community in the future, so There's gonna be more money headed toward India India is uh, India's space agency is also looking at Partnering with japan on some future missions there. Japan also has a mission that's headed to the moon fairly soon but overall This is a very exciting Program landing mission data should be arriving fairly soon from This very exciting history making event Yeah, well, maybe I mean It's the it's that peril of Putting something on a different body out in space The the russians just sent something to the moon and it landed but it landed At a speed unconducive to the health of the lander So this one is unconducive. That's a very Egalitarian way to look at it. Okay. Yes This one seems to have landed successfully now. We have to see if it can also send the data Yeah, so hopefully the data will come and we will see that We will have a lot of information about water Where it's located What this lander, uh, they're not just the lander the shundran lander, but the actual rover that is going to be roving Uh, we'll be able to find out for us This is the moon is a jumping off point. So this is very exciting for humanity in general Moving past a space I want to talk about magnets Do you want to talk about magnets? Yeah, tell me how they work. I'm still confused What about these magnets? Oh my gosh. Yes. Um Engineers know a lot more than I do because there's this you know spin related to Electrons and there's up or down and the polarity of things you can align The polarity so that there's what we call a north and a south. It's not necessarily north and south but it is uh in relation to the electrical and the physical properties of the body and um Anyway, this new research just published this week in the journal nature researchers from the city college of new york have given Some magnets a boost Yeah, which is it's it's kind of cool. So they took a bunch of magnets and they layered them one on top of the other So you've got magnets that are going one direction and magnets that are going the other direction underneath them And then the polarity is the opposite way underneath that and the polarity is the opposite way underneath that So there's this these layers of Of magnets and that's how the magnets themselves stick together and hold together but uh, what they're reporting in their work is that these magnets that they used have intrinsic properties that actually have interactions with light particles and these they have Quasi particles they were able to like bind these excited particles these quasi particles and trap light within the magnet The light bounces back and forth within the layered magnets and enhances all of the interactions And they were able to determine that it Enhanced the normal magnetic response So they said ordering ordinarily light does not respond so strongly to magnetism This is why technological applications based on magneto optic effects often require implementation of sensitive optical detection schemes but with this What they have created It's an enhancement that isn't necessarily that sensitive and so technological applications may develop in the future to create magnetic lasers Optically controlled magnetic memory might change. There's some very interesting applications That could come out of this. Um, but yeah Magnets magnetic laser sounds like this sort of thing a second or third grader We'd like make it up It's like, yeah. Well, I have a magnetic laser But they could Potentially In the future. I mean this is still in the lab. It was just published in nature But it's very exciting that they were able to Structure the magnetic material in such a way that it was able to enhance these interactions all the way around So that the light the magnets all work together in an enhancing kind of way I don't know what I am having trouble with the word enhance It makes the the magnet stronger makes the magnet stronger. Yeah So you have a normal like Whatever tesla magnet, whatever the normal measurement of the magnetic moment is And then because of the optics involved in the layering and how they've trapped the light It is strengthening The magnet itself Puzzling over here is like how much because my understanding is you can actually Charge and discharge magnets electrically so that they can even become You can you can make them stronger by applying charge or right or so Are they stronger if they're not if they're stronger than You know one electron or whatever they're throwing into the system, but it's light just light not electricity I don't know Yeah, not electricity just photons Photons lights and apparently it's uh, it's supported by van der wal's interactions for those of you who are interested in the chemical physical Interactions that are happening there, but they with the Magnets the electronics a light that's involved This could lead to tunable systems that would be stronger than normal because of the way that it all works together In synchrony So that could lead to new technology Yeah, I mean, I don't I don't know the details and i'm sure based on The materials you use and the type of layering and the uh particular Phasing that you you know trying to put everything Together into similar phases that's going to impact The uh the strength of the signal or the strength of the enhancement of the magnet magnetic strength I think I think it sounds like a completely boring technological advance Which will probably be which will probably be like the key underpinning to a time traveling machine one day It just doesn't seem In the moments just like I wouldn't even bother with that And then it turns out. Oh wait, we need to send signals now back in time. Wait, how? Hey, well, it's gonna be later. This is just an iterative step This is part of it. It'll happen eventually. That's right Okay, so later later later AI is gonna be conscious, right? Uh Well, apparently It could be now What? Yeah, so no, what yeah Yeah, well, it could be now. We could we could just Design it said at least like 2050 2060. We no no No, it could be it could be tomorrow. The point the problem is why more than And how you define it so in 120 page discussion paper That you read in its entirety Look 120 page paper is never necessary and I can't even imagine this scenario It is an academic paper would take 120 pages utterly ridiculous Um Oh, but here's why okay, so it's a group of 19 computer scientists neuroscientists and Philosophers, okay Uh came up with a lengthy checklist of attributes that together Could suggest but not prove AI is conscious 125 120 pages is why philosophers by the way are regularly invited to contribute to other scientific papers Or be invited to dinner parties or engaged in small talk Because posted as a pre-print this week 120 pages is is going to stay a pre-print There's no editor. There's no editor who's going to look at that and go Yeah, I want that job Nobody part of it. It's part of the process just okay, okay Okay, anyway the researchers draw on theories of human consciousness to propose 14 criteria and then apply them to existing architectures None is likely to be conscious they conclude of the existing AI architectures But the work offers a framework for evaluating increasingly human like AI's According co-author Robert Long the san francisco based non-profit center for AI safety Which is the thing that probably didn't exist very long ago But i'm glad it exists now Yeah, one of the first tasks was to define consciousness What are we even talking about? So I imagine 110 pages later The philosophers handed over the introduction And the core descriptors of consciousness States were uh compared to the AI underlying architectures so to be included A theory of consciousness had to be based on neuroscience and supported by empirical evidence such as data from brain scans of humans I don't know why we're necessarily the benchmark of consciousness, but I guess we're making up the words so we get to be the benchmark Data from brain scans during tests that manipulate consciousness using perceptual tricks It had to allow for the possibility that consciousness can arise Regardless of whether computations are performed biologically or on silicone chips Six theories of mind were settled on along with the 14 indicators derived from them One reoccurrent processing theory this theory proposes that passing information through feedback loops is a key aspect of consciousness It suggests that feedback mechanisms in the brain are essential for conscious awareness They also had global neuronal workspace theory according to this theory consciousness arises when independent streams of information Are collected and converged in a central workplace the workspace in the brain somewhat like clipboard, I guess It emphasizes the integration Yeah, the working I'm a poster board right like a cork board to put all the things you need to remember in one place Oh, my cork board is conscious anyway, no integrating Information from different sources considered a fundamental aspect of consciousness is higher order theories these theories posit that consciousness involves a process of representing and annotating basic inputs received from the senses they suggest There's higher level of cognitive processing involved in a conscious experience with Inputs that are separate from just thinking about something Mechanisms for controlling attention Oh, gosh, some of us might not be as conscious as we think If this is part of this some theories emphasize the role of attention in consciousness They suggest that mechanisms for controlling and directing attention are integral to conscious awareness And some part of it is needed for a body that can get feedback from the outside world This theory suggests that having a physical body that interacts with and receives feedback from The external environment is important for consciousness, which is a very typical bias of meat space thinking Meat space human centric thinking. Yeah, you would need a body Agency and embodiment is another the theory focus on the sense of agency and embodiment It suggests that consciousness a that a conscious entity Should exhibit a sense of self and be aware of its actions within a physical or simulated environment So they took these and had some criteria based on those and they applied them to Existing AI which I am going to point out as I always do is in its infancy So this isn't where AI can go. This is just new teeny baby Baby AI that has all of the data of the internet. There you go Well, if you apply these to a newborn baby, a lot of it would be tough You know, I don't know how much attention or central workspace is going on The body is just learning how senses work. It seems at times But that's the that's one of the big points of consciousness is that It's not considered that newborns are conscious that Seriously philosophy neuroscience both work together in this hypothesis that consciousness actually doesn't come about until The brain is formed enough for memories to be formed for physical awareness to be possible and for like a lot of these theories that you're outlining right now to come into being so it's It's thought that Kids between you know until they're like two to three years old are really not conscious That's utterly ridiculous. I'll just tell you right now. Those people don't have kids it is consciousness as a Definition is gonna be I've had six months old jokes do you engage in humor like that that to me is that's it. I got it so anyway one one variant of the type of Of gpt language models came close to exhibiting a global workspace There was google's palm e which i don't know what that is exactly but It receives inputs apparently from various robotic sensors Had a had criteria of agency and embodiment deep minds transformer based adaptive agent Is trained to control an avatar in 3d space qualified for agency embodiment Even though it lacked physical sensors because it has very good spatial awareness in its virtual environment None of the ai Checked a majority of boxes so and none were considered strong enough candidates for consciousness although It was pointed out that they do point out in the paper that It would actually be kind of trivial to Design some of these features into the existing ai So that they could check more boxes But there's not a clear need for it for completing the tasks that the ai was designed for But actually sort of taking well I we could give this language model some physical inputs and have it control a robot and figure out how to move around Like that wouldn't be that difficult to add that to the language model. It's just that why Why do we want to do that at this point? Yeah, but it sounds like you know The definitions from philosophers That turned this into a 120 page paper They just might be wrong If I if my newborn children can engage in humor and jokes and trickery Then they may be missing A large piece of the vote. They might need to do a 240 page Introduction to consciousness So the big take-home message from this 120 page paper Is that these large language? Models, they're not yet. They're not there yet. Nothing checks the boxes. We don't have to worry about it like like this Nothing checks the boxes, but to get one that checks the boxes wouldn't be that hard if this is now your goal Right to check the boxes Yeah, if it's your goal to check all the boxes you could design something Likely from what we have existing that could check most of them But then again, that is simply checking boxes and it's not explaining What consciousness is why it is how it comes to pass what it all means there's because that's because that required philosophers and as soon as we realized all of our definitions In this approach are coming from philosophers. We can just skip past it And interact with a conscious AI with memory agency Reasoning and maybe even mood Oh, oh no moody robots. No, no, I'm not interested. No, no, no moody robots I thought robots were supposed to be predictable Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. The future is unpredictable. Oh goodness Jumping forward from consciousness and artificial intelligence. I want to remind everyone there was a study I talked about last week involving black soldier flies that were their their exoskeletons were being ground down to form heightened the chitin was being taken out of the exoskeletons to potentially form molecules that could be used as plastic polymers and Very interesting and I was like, wow, why What is up with the black soldier fly? There's another study this week out of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. But apparently They're using the larva of the black soldier fly to solve some medical issues so the larva of the black soldier fly have metabolites that Modulate what are called toll-like receptors and the signaling pathways that they regulate and There's a possibility that these little baby black soldier flies And the oil that comes from these larva That it could help with things like ulcerative colitis so the The oils from these black soldier flies are very high in what's called bsfl oil or black soldier fly larva oil Who knew they'd be high in that? and that's high in medium chain fatty acids and so those medium chain fatty acids are a great source of relief for things like ulcerative colitis the study is published in the international journal of molecular sciences and uh, the The study suggests that this oil could influence cellular energy utilization Influence these metabolic pathways and then also facilitate fats and energy and how they're utilized within the body um, and so When I was wondering like why are they growing black soldier flies? apparently There are a number of different reasons that these black soldier flies are in in demand these days and a potential source for helping humanity into our future Reacher researchers suggest that a diet enriched with bsfl black soldier fly liquid oil at 20 percent Is really promising for helping out a bunch of these issues That's going to be great news for black soldier fly farmers everywhere Everywhere One of the aspects of this that's interesting is that it could uh, that the pathways that it impacts do reduce inflammation, so if there's yeah Ulcerative colitis is an inflammatory disorder and so this could Go the opposite direction who knew it would come from flies But Justin why do Why what is this story about Music and cells and what's happening? It's a story about diabetes No, what that is it? Yeah, it's a story about how so diabetes if you're not familiar is conditioned which the body produces Too little or no insulin Uh, it depends on an external supply of injections or pumps That sort of thing. This is researchers from the department of biosystem Biosystem science and engineering at eth Zurich They found an interesting solution to allow people to administer insulin Without an injection or pump Wait what? This is Yeah, so there's a number of Research projects that are currently underway That enclose in this case. They're enclosing insulin producing designer cells and capsules that can then be implanted into the body Uh, there's other ones that are similar In terms of the idea of you have a cell implanted into the body that can Generate mrna that can produce something in the body and then you just need a way of stimulating That cell to turn kind of turn it on or make it active So there've been all sorts of triggers for these implanted cells They've used light temperature electric fields Uh, there's there's one that was using a sort of acupuncture Needle to then deliver an electric charge to stimulate The current research took a different route They decided they would use That they're triggered to release the designer cells insulin would be music What? Yeah Let me sing at your designer cells No, yeah, so it's making the producing cells receptive to sound the researchers used a protein from the bacterium e. Coli This protein responds to mechanical stimuli and it's very common in human animals bacteria The protein is located Was was positioned in the membrane of the bacterium and it regulates the influx of calcium ions into the cell interior Incorporated the blueprint of this bacterial ion channel into human insulin producing cells That let the Create the ion chamber, uh, let the cells create the ion channel themselves and bed it in their membrane and these cells open in response to sound Allowing the positively charged calcium ions to flow into the cell that leads to a charge reversal in the cell membrane Which causes the tiny insulin filled vesicles inside the cell to fuse with the cell membrane And then they are released to the outside So they played around with what frequencies and how loud it needed to be They found that volumes around 60 decibels and base frequencies of 50 hertz were the most effective in triggering the ion channels In uh, I'm seeing a problem here though like I mean 60 decibels is not outside the range of normal activity Uh base if you're out on a street and there's a jackhammer or you know buildings like You don't want these to be stimulated all the time. So what's happening like this is is Do they have a difference here? So the yes and the system they found that the researchers That the implanted insulin producing cells Were in their bellies and they they they were only activated able to be activated when the bellies were directly on a loud speaker So they kind of had to hold the the mouse model up to the speaker with by its belly for it to work There was no effect if they were allowed to freely mouse disco about There was no there was no ambient noise that was triggering this this had to be The music that was the speaker had to be right up They found the most effective song from their repertoire and releasing the insulin Was the queen song we will rock you And apparently the avengers soundtrack Lots of bass probably Yeah within yeah, it's bass and then it needs to have a A bit of a quiet spell and then bass like it but it's it's a somewhat specific pattern that was most effective But yeah, uh, we we will rock you by clean was the most effective song And releasing and so the idea is you could have these cells Injected some place on the body And you could take your I guess your phone You crank the volume of I don't know if a phone gets to 60 decibels. It sounds like a lot. I don't know It's not it's not it. Yeah, it's it's within normal like 80 something is where you start to get A high decibel range. Yeah, so you crank up maybe a phone. Maybe you need a special speaker Put it over put it over wherever that spot is where you've got those cells And it can do a insulin release without an injection Without uh pumps and you know surgeries and stuff. Well, I guess there's a surgery to embed the cells But that's about it or an injection or yeah, you'd have to take these genetically modified cells and insert them into A person in some way right now. It's just mice And I do love the idea that scientists are just you know doing work for mouse disco time but um And and this is one example of this is this insulin release, you know the the concept of this is creating cells that can produce basically A lot of different, uh A lot of drugs are designed to Turn on or turn off activity Yeah To encourage or discourage mRNA from moving around and creating proteins of this that together to do downstream Effects if you can create cells that can just directly make a specific mRNA and feed it to the body And then have an external trigger that you can be in charge of when it's doing it or when it's not doing it then You really start to get to a point where You know You're replacing external medicine with internal machinery That's missing or malformed in the body Yeah, and I love that they're using, uh, this membrane deformation I mean, we already have pressure sensitive membrane, uh ion channels within cells of the body the Meccano reception is not an unfamiliar thing for Our body and ourselves to deal with um, so that in itself is Is a very interesting just very basic biological Solution to this but then to figure out I think the issue is the the specificity So that you don't have accidental release so that it is at a certain time at a certain place when you're ready for it, you know I mean, I love the idea of You know, I'm gonna eat dinner now or I just ate dinner and you hold up your eye We will rock you recording to you know, your neck your stomach or you know, wherever the cells happen to be You know There's an interesting aspect to that but I think there is definite care that needs to take place in how this is implemented But it has well That's a very important point you bring up, uh, don't try this at home No I Mean, I don't know people are diy biologists all over the place. So who knows maybe somebody is gonna That case, uh, you know, I'm not in charge of that what you do Nope not in charge of that. Um, nope Wait for a doctor wait for it to be released for everyone Uh We know very well that you do not want to go to mars, right? Me you know, I like this planet's actually perfect for me the All the other humans are more than welcome to find their own planet somewhere else You like this one many times on the show you've you've said nope. No, not going to mars. It's okay Uh researchers just published an a pre-print in the archive pre-print server Uh, they're from george mason university and they did computer simulations to try and figure out the minimum number of people required to successfully start a mars colony and they uh simulated the types of Personalities and various factors within those personalities related to resilience to stress social skills degree of neuroticism there were, uh, a number of these Characteristics that they've put together. We know that they're my guess is you need really boring people. I mean, uh, really well adjusted non-neurotic people So they ran five simulations that we're modeling 28 earth years of colony life So of course, this is not something that we could have done here on earth on earth We have a number of mars simulations that are ongoing in various ways on the island Hawaii And I hope people in Maui and Lahaina and those places are doing well and if we can support them that would be amazing And additionally, there's Antarctic research and other research in deserts places like Utah others that are simulating These possibilities of colon colonizing mars. They determined The minimum number of people required to keep things going 22 Oh, that's small 22 people They had to have Agreeable personalities those agreeable personalities were more likely to survive and thrive and persist And people with a lot of neuroticism. They died in the simulations.  They were just like, oh, I've got to be for how long I just I find this this whole Simulation very Fascinating because it's not just psychological, but all behavior and environmental and the way that they looked at all this I just think it's really just Incredibly fascinating that they determined that the neuroticism is not a Really good trait to have for a colonist on a planet that might kill you So then but this we should also then What's kind of any is like you think okay Any long-term voyage or anytime when you're have to work closely with others and be in a confined environment for a Long time and this is a ridiculous place that my brain goes, but then I think Huh, I bet you pirates must have been really Really good mannered really easy to work with they couldn't have a bunch of neurotic pirates They're on that sea for more than 28 days My goodness. Yep, and your comment about uh boredom also Is important the way they define stuff in their paper neurotics individuals with a high degree of competitive myths Highly aggressive interpersonal characteristics And challenged ability to adapt to boredom or a change in routine Yeah, so it's the kind of thing where if there is a Crisis that's going to lead to a change in routine. They're not going to adapt very quickly They're not good at boredom either So they might just walk off into the insubstantial martian atmosphere just because that's better than being bored or they're gonna not get along with everybody and Their aggressiveness is going to limit their ability to Maintain sociality The neurotics also are just like it's just occurring to them Do you know how hard it is to find an earth like planet in this this galaxy you realize what we just left? Ah It's not about it too much 120 page philosophy paper About all of the reasons that they should have stayed home Yeah, this this preprint is not 120 pages, but uh, it does it kind of makes sense and it's uh Let's try and put agreeable people who can work together on a place. It's going to try to kill them all the time It makes sense possibly I don't know. You might add a few more than 22 just in case Well, and the thing is that this is only for what a 28 day No year 28 years. I'm sorry. Yeah 28 years Yeah, yeah 28 year mission And what is it to get to the nearest star? It's like a hundred generations Like you would have to have an airlock and a policy I mean this is just for mars. We're not talking about generation ships. We're talking about But the nearest star if we ever start thinking like, whoa, we'll be you find another earth like plant You have generation after generation after generation where they have that you get a personality test when you're 13 and they're like Okay, we have coached you You cannot Give any these neurotic answers Or they're going to throw you out the airlock because The population is growing beyond what the ship can handle it. What if I'm neurotic? If you're asking what if I'm neurotic you're neurotic Because that's the only one who's like, oh, I'm worried about whether or not I'm neurotic Why I don't know. I must be neurotic. That's the only explanation Oh, they're sending me to the airlock aren't they? Right now we're sending you to tell your friends about twist Thank you for joining us for another episode of this week in science We're so glad that you are here to join us once again We have a few more stories to get through for the rest of the show So don't miss it And if you don't want to miss any show and if you want to be a part of keeping this show going Week after week head over to twist.org click on our patreon link And you can choose your level of support $10 a month and more and we'll thank you by name at the end of the show You can be a financial supporter slash producer of this week in science We really cannot do what we do without you Thank you for your support. All right. Let's come on back right now with some Blair no Blair's got a baby So it's kiki's bird corner With kiki Hey Justin, what makes you a great dad? Patience would you consider yourself a a super dad? Yeah, sometimes Well in house sparrows Recently published in frontiers and ecology and evolution Is urbanized house sparrows the males. Oh, no, sorry not house sparrows. Nope. Bloop. Bloop. Bloop. Bloop Not the houses the song sparrows male song sparrows in the city Are like super dads compared to their rural counterparts Researchers Why so? Yeah, why so? Researchers who were working at North Dakota State University and also Virginia Tech They expected that city males were going to be super busy Defending their territory and so they wouldn't have any time to be good dads Wait a second. North Dakota and Virginia, where did they find a city? There it is. What are they talking about? How do they define city in North Dakota? I'm not come on nothing. I'm just saying like when you say city, I expect you to city urban urban environment An urban environment. Yes. Well so they looked at urban male song sparrows and Rural male song sparrows and they looked at the number of times that they visited the nests So after the eggs hatched how many times did the males go help out at home and feed the babies and take care of things and Other questions were what else were these males doing? Were they out? Singing defending territory doing doing other things but What they determined Is that these city males are doing it all? They're defending their territory. They're hanging out with their mate and they're helping out at the nest feeding the babies taking care of them the offspring are like better and The rural then the rural males are just doing their thing normally but because of the urban and the hypothesis now is that because of the urban environment that these males are Super hyper stimulated uh for success And so urban song sparrow dads are super dads Compared to rural dads Sorry to say it Seems like birds in general adapt pretty well to human civilization Yes, I know and it depends on the species and so this is song sparrows This isn't my guys at the house sparrows. We also know are in cities and urban environments So maybe there's something there as well. We don't know but this is It depends on what the species are able to adapt to right how generalized can they become Are they good at adaptation or are they like neurotics who don't like change in their routine It has to be this way There's there's such a plethora of crows and seagulls In this neighborhood and they you know, they're hanging out on the tops of the buildings and they're hanging out in the parks and they're they're kind of everywhere If it was like it would be surprising to me if it was, you know, some Badgers You know, some animals I don't I think tend to avoid humans at least They'll yeah, some species definitely avoid humans. And so this would not have the same Turn out or results as all at all. So Yeah, some species the generalists the ones that are good at adaptation They can thrive within human environments and in these situations These super dads So moving on from song sparrows We got to talk about hummingbirds Hummingbirds are wonderful. People love hummingbirds. Everybody wants to have hummingbirds come to their backyards because they're like And they fly up and then they hover at that red or yellow orange flowered tree or the purple whatever the color And they go get the flowers to get the pollen their pollinators. This is amazing. They do the hover feeding. It's so great Except sometimes they don't that's not what they do And so researchers Say something bad about hummingbirds. Nope. Just sit there some sneaky footed hummingbirds out there Footed but So a researcher just published 50 years worth of research into Hummingbirds phylogeny uh, their beak length their foot length the foot size their body size all sorts of Just published in the american natural naturalist biology professor emeritus Robert Calwell and his colleagues Had been looking at this for a very long time started back in the 1970s and found some Some magnificent hummingbirds That's actually a species of hummingbird in Costa Rica at a site 10,000 feet above sea level The largest the magnificent hummingbird of the four species that they were looking at at that elevation Had smaller feet than the lighter six gram fiery throated hummingbird Who had a shorter bill? So this little bird had big feet and a short bill and the big bird had a long beak And short feet and so he was like what is happening there? Started putting data together started putting phylogenies together and he said he actually had enough data for a paper back in 1986 But he opted to collect more data. So now 50 years later The paper has come out because in 2014 a phylogeny of hummingbirds was published by some researchers in berkeley and so that allowed them to take a whole bunch of their data connected with the phylogeny and They have measurements from 1172 museum specimens 386 field captures representing 220 species of hummingbirds They pulled all the behavioral data that they could find together. They went through every book photograph of everything and the that they could find and excluding body size phylogenetic relations, what up?  It's just one particular adaptation That is kind of interesting because we look at hummingbirds. We go. Oh, they hover And they're going to go in their beaks are adapted to go into the flower and those birds are pollinators The question is are these stabby stabby big footed hummingbirds pollinators also? Not so much because they're not getting into the flower in the same way They've got the rounder. They're they're sneaky avoiding the pollen. Yeah, and so these researchers They they're kind of like they kind of nectar thieves And that's a downside for the flower because pollination is not occurring And unless the flower has a way to seal that injury and produce more pollen It's going to lead to that flower being less desirable by other hummingbirds But it's really kind of an interesting relationship foot size and beak length and hummingbirds Are correlated to whether or not you are a nectar thief Or whether or not the hummingbird is a nectar thief. Oh, no Oh, no sneaky hummingbirds and why were their feet involved in the first place and All right You ready for your two stories This is the part where I recommend everybody turn off the show No, no, no, we're okay with doom Doom we can handle this. It's okay. I have good stuff afterwards. Come on. Don't turn it off. Keep going Okay, so all life on earth has a survival strategy Way of living that allows current populations to thrive and ensures that there are future generations of that life form And they find usually a niche in a biome Adapts to a changing environment and tend to find a balance that can last for Tens of thousands of not many many many more years before significant changes required And new strategies can be adopted usually gradually over time It doesn't always work Sometimes animals go extinct There are more extinct species From planet earth than there are species living now. It's just the story of life on the planet current modern human strategies evolved to reproduce Exponentially you expand geographically and consume any available resource It's been highly successful. We've done amazing in terms of putting humans everywhere that they can be As long as there's more land and more resources We will be able to continue to ever expand our population with this strategy Yay, where's the more land and where's the more resources? It might be a limit And what happens when you hit a limit is that This is the subject of the paper by a university of british columbia researcher william reese Entitled the human ecology of overshoot. Why major population correction is inevitable Currently published in the journal world Overshoot is actually it's from a book Maybe another essay Previously refers to human population consuming Even the replenishable self reproducing resources Faster than the ecosystem can regenerate them And in producing waste greater than an ecosphere can assimilate in short humanity has According to this study already exceeded the long-term human carrying capacity of the planet earth Totally out of control But we aren't actually subverting the laws of nature according to the paper We are simply following them to a natural conclusion Like all species humans are predisposed to grow reproduce and expand Into the suitable accessible habitats the difference with us Is that almost any habitat is suitable? This is true of some other life forms ants for example Will will continue to expand into suitable habitats difference between us and ants And I don't know if anybody's noticed this we're bigger, which is Perceptionally sort of as though ants lived on a much bigger planet than we do Our planet comparatively Is extremely small and I have to tap out for a minute and I will continue this story on the other side And I just lost Justin. What happened there? I was doing a brief comeback And then Justin disappeared for a moment. He's got to move his computer ring But here we have From his story the increase in population versus the years along with some instances of the increase in things like fossil fuel use And he'll be right back. I know he said he had to tap out he'll be right back but additionally uh the gdp versus oil consumption increasing uh this particular study is fascinating because it is Kind of something that people i've been talking about for a very long time the carrying capacity of the planet is something that I was very familiar with as an ecology undergraduate biology student and in the process Of learning about the carrying capacity of environments it became very apparent that sustainability is not something that is looked Looked upon Or at least considered really when it comes to capitalism in the way that we run our our public commons, right our public goods and resources that we all work together so a study like this that Uh is bringing up Overshoot and population correction I do think it is going to happen. The question is when it's going to happen last year two years ago. There were uh some estimates of human population that maybe will be affected by things like family planning education for women and other factors related to society to society and how culture Uh works together whether or not we're able to look at things from a more sustainable uh perspective but according to those studies from A group out of there's un makes estimates and there's also another group out of uh university of washington That does these estimates They had estimated that we could Reach as many as 10 billion people by 2080 and then that might reduce to about Uh eight billion or nine billion people by the end of the century if things went according to family planning and other factors that could be involved in Uh in choices and the education that women have so We have a lot of aspects a lot of parameters coming into this doom and gloom situation of the future and how the world is actually going to work, but um I mean, yeah, we are using things. We're not replenishing them and unless we can start bringing things from asteroids Hey, phobos, what I'm maybe You know, maybe we are stuck where we are What are you talking about? The story that you were talking about I just kept oh no, it's it gets worse. I didn't even know You didn't get to the end of it. No, that was just the beginning of it. So Okay Yeah, okay, so here's the good news at the end of the paper. I'll just skip it says that uh, it's unlikely that humans will go extinct Wealthy technologically advanced uh nations potentially will have more resilient and be insulated at least temporarily For the worst of the consequences of things like global warming and you know all the war and climate chaos food and other resource shortages civil disorder that sort of thing just for temporarily What kind of gets left out of this is that Once we don't have the abundance of cheap energy and resources We also are going to have a shortage then of cheap human labor to gather all that stuff It's already starting Maybe that the best case future according to the paper will be Will be will be powered by renewable energy in the form of human muscle draft horses mules and oxen what What apparently predicting a In the worst-case scenario even a return to the stone age lifestyle No, thank you because even even with Renewable energies, you know, these are globally sourced with components that are you know, the batteries themselves aren't really easy to Make in your backyard the one group The one group though. This is the silver lining for humanity The one group that should be doing okay Is the remaining pockets of indigenous peoples? Who are sort of already trained to live in that world are already adapted to a world Without heavy reliance on industrialization And technology. Yeah, yep Yeah so Hope for humanity the uh Especially those can you imagine those those rural amazonian tribes or some of the Uncontacted people when they noticed the metal Birds have stopped passing over or out on the island Where's this the Contacted tribe in the island south of india. I think it is or they just notice there's no more boats or planes going over and eventually Come out to explore the world Why they're gonna find all this technology to back engineer if they search so choose As all of civilization will have collapsed elsewhere And then my last story Thanks, okay. Whoo So optimistic. Okay. Yeah last story. Here we go. There's it's not that it's that optimistic It's just it's the natural conclusion of Using all of the resources and continuing to add to the population Now it works eventually Okay, so there's there's the but that's the silver lining for humanity is that there are people on the planet Who should be fine with this? And his last story is uh, oh the future of all humanity is looking bleak wait Why why has been hoped that when global warming pandemic Or eventually bring about the population correction in the previous story that some humans would survive Remote living humans the indigenous folks the uncontacted tribes. Unfortunately research from bolivia Has found that rural indigenous peoples of the amazon suffered Disproportionately from the covet 19 pandemic the idea was Being isolated would have protected them right the problem They wouldn't get it. They wouldn't be exposed, right? Yeah The problem I think was The information was slower to travel to them that there was a danger the methods of avoiding spread Weren't as available You know try to try to order A mask from amazon Delivered to the amazon and you'll find very difficult Well These are also groups that work very closely with one another the different community villages visit each other They have communal meals. They have you know, large numbers of people gathered They're actually very much more social than people are in the western world in a lot of ways Uh, and so yeah, they did uh Some simulations. This is also there was groups that they were working with during the pandemic They were helping keep isolated and keep protected But they have found that Another part of is a lack of access to medical like they don't get Even if they're in a system that should give them access to a county clinic kind of a thing or rural clinic Maybe they're too isolated or yeah, there's a whole bunch of factors and then there's the unconnected tribes So anyway, it turns out that uh, it was at some of the outbreaks were actually more severe in very remote Places or according to the prediction could be much more disastrous uh There than in other places so Yeah, we basically there's there's 10 000 people Around on this planet right now who are in Uncontacted tribes now even these rural amazonian indigenous that were part of this study Are are contacted They're in you know in communication with the outside world The uncontacted the ones are like we just don't want anything to do with it about 10 000 people globally That's it. That's who that's who survives That's who survives the global pandemics. That's who survives the everything It's just that completely uncontacted group It's way better than a lot of endangered animals right now like endangered species that are down into the sub 1000s hundreds like That's better than a lot of other Plenty hey plenty. Yeah, good. We could do that. The other thing is, you know, it's that's down from eight billion Yeah Yes, yeah Anyway being super rural and the amazon did not protect people From covid because that pandemic went everywhere Everywhere. Well, I'm sure part of it was also, you know trade that was happening and people coming in specifically to help also bringing it and then they're not being a lot of protections and yeah, lots of issues, but It's an interesting perspective to consider because you look at the world and think oh, we're really connected But there are those disconnected places people are going to be fine. There's going to be that but And disconnected means also that you're not going to get the information as quickly. You're not going to have personal protective Implements in this in this pandemic's case. You might not get the information on how to prevent Spread and vaccinations are going to reach you last Yep, they will get to you They're not going to prioritize those organ those those communities Yeah Okay, well, let's go from that doom Doom To some uh, good news Should we do some good news ish? Uh, yeah, we could use a good news refresher after all of that Yeah, okay, so researchers this is Similar to an area that of research that I have been very interested in for a very long time related to learning and memory and how People learn and remember and when I was in grad school There were researchers who discovered that there was neurogenesis neurogenesis is the process of new neurons being born In the brain and the area of this neurogenesis is the hippocampus Which is an area related to learning and memory. We've seen that over and over again and so researchers finally we're Trying to investigate this a bit more and they're like Okay We can't look at people. We can't cut apart people brains So yes, again, we're we're going to have to look at mice but these columbia columbia university researchers Just published in the journal molecular psychiatry their work looking at hippocampal neuron circuits that are based on cells born When a mouse is an adult so this neurogenesis process In adult mice. So what do baby cells have to do with memory? Why are they involved? What's going on? Why are why are they even there? So the researchers decided that hey, we're going to Irradiate the hippocampus of these mice which basically is going to kill anything that would be dividing and turning into a new neuron So the the all the cells that are left would just be adult cells and they found that when they irradiated the brains of these mice There were no new neurons being born. That was the first thing And then they found that there was a progressive decline over about five months Which is about a quarter of the mouse's lifespan in working memory. So this is The mental sticky notes the like okay gotta keep a phone number in my head. Oh, how to remember your name Okay, so I'm doing this thing right now, but I have to remember this thing while I'm doing it so that I can take care of this other thing Working memory is the very short lived memory, but it allows us to function with multiple things going on Uh working memory might be pretty important for what we think is good. Uh multitasking But anyway when they nudged neurons to try and replace the impact of that Irradiation they saw that They were able to Fix the problem with the memory What did they use? They used a drug that releases acetylcholine in the brain. Acetylcholine is a stimulatory neurotransmitter neurotransmitter And it was able to Compensate for the loss of neurogenesis and then also Kind of the brain tried to compensate these mice brains tried to compensate for the lack of neurogenesis by making new connections But they were weird connections. They weren't David they weren't right So It's interesting because researchers for years have been like, yes new neurons in the brain They're important for memory, but we haven't really figured out why or how they work And so now There's a little bit more of a piece of the puzzle for the mechanism for the neurotransmitters involved where these These little baby neurons being born in the brain why they're important And so this could lead to treatments that will impact aging and dementia beneficially So good news Maybe just maybe You'll be able to age gracefully If this research moves forward You don't plan to age gracefully. No, that's the whole it takes all the fun out of aging Okay excuse Beyond your brain, there's also just living longer Researchers at the university. Yes researchers at the university of rockchester Have taken a longevity gene from naked mole rats And given it to mice And guess what happened? No, did they get the mice to live to be 37 years old? Well, not 37 years old But longer than they would normally live so the mice lived longer. They didn't get cancer They had good memory.  It's going to make my skin youthful But this genetic Shift for mice Improved health and led to a 4.4 increase in median lifespan for the mice So the gene not necessarily only related to reducing cancer Potential in the naked mole rats but also related to reducing inflammation maintaining a healthier gut And who knows maybe someday You too will enjoy The genes of a naked mole rat To live with what gene was it that they So the gene that uh Yes, uh the gene that they were specifically looking at is uh responsible for making the high molecular weight hyaluronic acid and This is not something that mice have In high quantities humans had to have it a little bit but not in high quantities Um, and when they removed it from the naked mole rats the naked mole rats were more likely to produce tumors And this more likely because uh right now they like typically in the wild state. They don't produce them They're like they're basically cancer proof There's another spider there. Um, the version of this is called the hyaluron and hyaluronin synthase 2 gene Which is making this high molecular weight hyaluronic acid acid. We all have it But it just depends On how much it's expressed. We don't express it as much mice don't express it as much Naked mole rats express it a lot So it's it's interesting though. So we're We're high performers When it comes to longevity already There are there's a handful of species that do really really good at this uh The mole rat is like naked mole rat is right up at the top The elephants are long-lived Elephants are long-lived. There's a Bowhead whale Yeah, that can be 200 years old Yes, that's like the longest It's even beats the tortoise. I'd love to know the uh We think of some species as almost immortal like the um Mostly like ocean species Hydra Yeah, like hydra and the sea urchin like there's some really really old sea urchins I'd love to know if they and if they have this pathway involved as well but Yeah, so but the the thing that's in common with uh uh a lot of them Is that they seem to be They seem to have genes that are involved in Sort of cell recycling autophagy Yes Everything that lives a really long time Is turning over those cells and recycling them and reworking them for for uh, you know, not allowing Mice though mice are usually only live like well like a year They have a super fast lifespan. So everything's this comparative thing, right? You know, it's like oh Yeah, can be like 30s get to 37 years old or something like this. So they live decades difference The difference is huge Yeah Yeah, so looking at it that at all of this in mice is just one of the first steps Because obviously there need to be more steps looking to see how this specifically works in longer lived species Who don't have as high of a metabolic process who do who live much longer? um where different forces are beneficial to adaptation And it's it's also one of those great things like elephants live almost as long as humans But because of their size Their metabolic rate like there's some weird thing that they do lower. Yeah, it depends on how big you are Where they're not you're you're aging better than others I'm not aging very well right now. There's a spider on my pop filter You're aging fine. You're just you have uh in studio guests. I do. I have a lot that I keep watching I have several little teeny tiny in studio guests right now. I need to get my um feather duster tomorrow Okay, last story of the night We have all been so very happy with the fact that we have indoor plumbing that we have a place to flush our excrement One of the greatest inventions in the history of civilizations Right, and then there's the other invention which is the cleaning Squirty bottle that you use to clean the toilet that the blue stuff goes down Through the toilet to clean off and then the scrubby brushy at the end of a wand That you use to clean anything that may have gotten stuck to the toilet bowl They just need to make a better toilet bowl Well, apparently they have And I'm not kidding you've got my attention now Published in advanced engineering materials these researchers Have have developed a slippery a super slippery flush toilet Uh huazong university of science and technology in wuhan china Uh, they've had they have a long lived toilet history. Um, but anyway, they have developed a uh silicon embedded surface for a toilet that is So much better than pretty much every toilet surface out there So they they made their surface Embedded the silicon in it. So we know the anti-stick silicon. It's this nice slippery substance However, they then scrubbed it up and abraded it with sandpaper Didn't mess anything up. It was still very slippery. They tested the material in a number of different Substances to see whether anything stuck to it Like a lot of the the stuff that they just showed in this little example just didn't matter But then they showed honey honey sticky Honey is like the stickiest natural thing on the planet almost Then they didn't the honey didn't stick to it Yeah, so then they've made, you know, a little tiny model toilets and they created different Stickiness Viscosity type substances they tried to Simulate flushing they tried to figure out, you know, how Everything would work, but they discovered a really really slippery toilet surface that could maybe reduce the amount of water that we use every time that we flush and um, keep your toilet bowl cleaner without having to use a lot of Noxious chemicals So everybody need this immediately And you know what I want to know what they call it I'm taking all of my investment dollars out of the black soldier flies And i'm putting i'm buying every bit of this toilet stock And they call this Toilet invention uh R Huh a r s s f t r Abrasion resistant super slippery flush toilet Maybe it's a translate from a different language and makes I don't know that's what they call it, but it's pretty much a non-stick toilet and uh, it could Could be the next All the money that I'm taking it out. That's it red Don't avoid it. Don't don't invest in toilet paper invest in ours Wait, how is it replacing toilet paper? You still need to turn it. Oh, you still yeah, you said you need the toilet paper for yourself At least it's not at least is not a greek or roman sponge thing. Those were not nice Yeah, and they were shared that was not sanitary Oh history people Yeah, don't learn it It's it's very entertaining. I mean if that's a rabbit hole you want to go down Maybe turn your rabbit the other way rabbits on the other hand rabbit fur nothing finer chinchilla There's spiders. I don't know how spider fur feels but anyway, have we made it to the end of the show? You've got sun in your eyes I got it was blasting right here through the window The one window that doesn't have any kind of covering either. So there's nothing I can do about it So we've done it we've made it to the end of the show I want to thank you all for joining us for another episode of this week in science Really, it's really great that you and the chat are here chatting while we do the show Over in discord. Thank you for being there. I see you Uh, I would love to say specific. Thank you shout outs to fada Thank you for all your help with social media and show notes identity for thank you for recording the show Gord are and Laura others help help helping to keep our chat rooms Nice wonderful places positive places to be not full of doom Um, thank you for doing that work rachel. Thank you for editing the show I think there might be some moments that deserve your attention this episode And especially to our twist patrons. Thank you so much for all of your support on patreon Arthur Kepler craig pots mary gertz Teresa smith richard badged bob coals kent north coat rick loveman george corris pierre velezak john ratness wami carl cornfield christ wosniak begard chef's dad donathan styles aka don stylo Allie coffin reagan sarah for far dawn monday stephen alberand darryl my shacks two pollocks andry swanson fredes 104 sky loop Paul ronamitch kevin ridden noodles jack brian kerington david a young blood sean clarence lamb john mckay greg riley marqueson flow steve leesman aka zima ken haze howard tan christopher rappin richard brendon minnish johnny gridley hymny day jay burton latimore flying out christopher drier arty on greg riggs john atwood rudy garcia dave wilkinson rodney lewis paul rick ramis philip shane curt larson craig landon jason Olds dave neighbor eric nap e o adam mishkan kevin parochan erin luthan steve de bell bob calder marjorie paul d disney david similarly patrick pecoraro and tony steele thank you for all of your support on patreon and if any of you are just sitting there going oh how can i help twist how what can i do head over to twist.org and click on that patreon link on next week's show we will be back wednesday 8 p.m pacific time broadcasting live from our youtube and facebook channels and from twist.org slash live want to listen to us as a podcast just search for this week in science wherever podcasts are found and if you enjoyed the show really get your friends to subscribe to for more information on anything you've heard here today show notes and links to stories will be available on our website www.twist.org and you can also sign up for a newsletter that'll come to you someday and you can contact us about that newsletter directly email me kirsten at kirsten at thisweekinscience.com justin at twistmealatminion at gmail.com or blare at blarebaz at twist.org just put twists somewhere in the subject line so your email doesn't get spam filtered into doom doom doom doom that we all want to ignore anyway so don't do that you can also hit us up on the where are we are we anywhere still we are places on the platform previously known as twitter is that what it's being called now and instagram and twitch and the universe and on uh yeah twist science we love your feedback if there's a topic you would like us to cover or address a suggestion for an interview a haiku that comes to tonight please let us know and we will be back here once again next week with more great science news we hope you join us and if you've learned anything from the show remember it's all in your head this week in science this week in science this week in science it's the end of the world so i'm setting up a shop got my banner unfurled it says the scientist is in i'm gonna sell my advice show them how to stop the robot with a simple device i'll reverse the warming with a wave of my hand and all is coming your way so everybody listen to what i say i use the scientific method for all that it's worth and i'll broadcast my opinion this week in science this week in science this week in science science this week in science this week in science this week in science i've got one disclaimer and it shouldn't be news that's what i say court says just call it twitter just call it twitter i don't know what i even do anymore fracturing is what we will call it this is the after show we're not fractured we're still here for a moment or so um justin you have a child who is elsewhere on the premises is there a possibly are you responsible for this child at this moment in time well am i being responsible no but i do have to go and send him off has the other parental unit yes yes but the other parental unit needs to get ready to go to work so i need to go and be the other other parental yeah but i understand that i would like everyone to know that maybe for a little while our aftershows are not going to be as exciting and long as they might have used to have been but i children they're vampires we have some children time and energy out of the there's responsibilities and so it's not all the time and energy and maybe probably you've but anyway yes i know you've moved already um everyone thank you for joining us for another show um and is that it do we have news do we have anything that no that's it right i gotta go you gotta go okay so say the thing go wait no good morning good morning justin say good night kiki good night kiki good night everyone thank you for joining us for another episode of this week in science we hope we'll be able to do longer after shows at some point in the future but right now stay safe stay healthy stay curious and as justin would love you to do stay lucky stay lucky above all else if everything else fails you'll have that above all else


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Cool off. Yes. A crash totally something different In today's episode, we're going to talk about the housing market for reasons why the housing market Not crash maybe cool off and slow down like the federal reserve said But ladies and gentlemen, if you haven't done so already, please go ahead and make sure you hit that like subscribe Comment and share button and as always And as always this is your gracious host welcome to the princess prince of investment Which it holds prince dice coming to you guys and girls live all the way from the beautiful city and state of denver, carato Via hallelujah. I am So the first thing I want to talk about today is the housing market crash, right? Everybody's saying oh my god, how's the market in the last two three years? It's been a tremendous bubble and now after the bubble we're going to have a crash I'm going to give you four reasons why The number one reason thing is post dramatic stress syndrome PTSD. You heard me right prince What are you talking about post dramatic stress syndrome? Isn't it like a people who experience dramatic things and how they think about them? Yes This generation has been one generation that has sat back and watched a housing crash happen throughout the world in 2007 2008 2009, right? So back when the housing market happened back in 2009 Wow myself I was stationed in I was overseas in Iraq in 08 Some of Iraq and I was in San Diego and I was it intimidated me from then on from buying a house I saw so many people lose their houses I saw many people lose their jobs lose their clearances I saw the worst of the worst It made it made the renters look like smart people and it made the people who went out there and brought houses look like Not idiots, but not so smart The thing is especially in my in my career military the big thing that people do They would get stationed somewhere in San Diego They will buy a house hold it for two or three years turn around and sell it Rent it walk away at the year two with a hundred thousand dollars fifty thousand sixty seven thousand dollars a profit from a house Sometimes they walk away a little bit more They go into the next house and they continue to flip houses by the first house second house third house Everything was great That is until like everything else the bubble burst the bubble burst a lot of people got left holding the bag They intimidated me And that made me scared of seeing the housing market when it was doing well Prince what does it have to do now in 2022 now we fast for today? We're 14 years later from 2008 and everybody in the last five years every time we see the housing markets start to do Well, we automatically think hold on wait wait wait. It's about to do bad. It's about to do bad It's about to do bad, right? There's no in between We know we think it's going to be a boom or it's going to be a bust. There could be no in between Just like we know we have a bullish market. We have a bearish market But we also have a market called a consolidated market meaning the market is moving sideways Now prince, why do you say this a lot of people since we've seen those bad times we think they're going to happen again Now you go back before 2008 and ask yourself when did we see a last housing market correction and crash like we saw in 08 Ladies and gentlemen that goes all the way back to 1929, you know, that's known as a great depression when we saw traumatic housing prices drop We saw a little bit in the 80s, but not like we saw in 29 or in 2008 You look at how far apart is that 70 almost 80 years apart, right? But the thing about it is why do we continuously wait on a bus? Because we've just seen one we saw the stock market crash in 2008 And we sort of we saw a pandemic come along and we have also seen the housing market crash. So that makes people a lot Very weary when we look at the housing market just doubling and tripling and just shooting up all across the nation I agree. Ladies and gentlemen, it's definitely a seller's market But as you if you compare attention to the housing market, you can see the cool down Look at that cool down. Why the cool down is happening two things that are happening We have interest rates, you know, just about two years ago The average interest rate was in the low twos even you can catch the on the high ones 1.8 most people got a 2.5 Or 2.25 or 275 that I've seen back in 2000 I mean back in 2020 now you fast forward to 2022 the average market rate is four to five percent What does that mean? That's a lot anybody that has purchased homes and no homes That's a lot when you're talking about adding up into a mortgage that makes a house more affordable I will tell you this When I purchased my home if it was at five percent, they'd probably be unaffordable for me Right, but at the time interest rates are very low when interest rates are very low It allows it allows you to purchase more home for your money when interest rates go up It allows you to purchase purchase less home for your money because a lot of your mortgage is going to interest Now this is cooling off the market two things is happening. You take my neighborhood for example When I moved into the neighborhood, it was probably about a $400,000 neighborhood Almost a half a million at the time. Now you look at it today. It's over 600,000, right? So not only is the housing market that houses is 600,000 But the mortgage rate is about five percent when you look at a 30 year fixed mortgage rate, right? So when you look at this the house is now way way more unaffordable two things is happening We all know as the value of a home a home goes up So does the taxes so the taxes away higher because the value, you know, you get you have to pay your property tax The property taxes are higher because you no longer have a 400,000 mile home. You got a 600,000 mile home So one the taxes are higher when the taxes are higher, you know, that pushes that pushes up the mortgage When the interest rates have doubled that also pushes up the mortgage and then not to mention The house is worth more and costs more that itself makes the house more unaffordable And when something is more unaffordable, it is less desirable When something is less desirable, you're going to have less people in the buying pot Which is in turn going to cool off the market. So when I go to sell my home, the buyer is going to We're going to go from a seller's market into a buyer's market. We know this is going to happen Now the buyer may turn around and say, hey prince, you know what?  I want all those things fixed So when I purchased my home people was buying anything. They were over bidding Now people are going to underbid you and they're going to demand more for you in order to sell your home So home's not going to be easier to sell and that's not a bad thing That's kind of bouncing out the market a little bit. You kind of want a little bit of tug of war And when you're buying and selling that's called a good old supply and demand And we're trying to find that equilibrium But it won't be a crash. I don't think we're going to turn around and say, oh man, this house said it was worth 600,000 Now it's only worth 300 I don't see that like a lot of people assume Now let's go into a couple things that I've written down here Number one thing is inventory. We're still ladies and gentlemen in a short inventory supply Where you look at the market across the board. You still see inventory is very low Right, we look at the latest housing report put out the bank by the markets bankers association The consumer building when you look at consumer building inventory still remains low So right now you still have a good bit of buyers that are there and supply has not meant the buyers demand So with that, uh, inventory been a little bit low. You can tell right there that is not going to Be a crash into the market Another thing is number two Um, no one wants to sell You kind of see in the housing market not a lot of people who already have homes are looking to sell homes Number one reason being is like, oh, look, I made $200,000 in equity But if you sell your home and take the $200,000 in equity, all you're going to do is turn around and go buy another home That's overvalued, right? So for prime example, let's take someone who lives up here in Denver, Colorado If you sell your house and make $100,000 150 maybe $200,000 and then you go off to San Diego, california Now you're going to buy a house for a million dollars To get the same thing the same thing that you had in Denver It doesn't make it seem like it was all that great of a deal when you go to the next market, right? So that's the first thing that we notice when we look at the housing market A lot of people don't want to sell because the people who have how who have houses who have nice equity You're not going to get the biggest bang for your buck as you go shop around currently In a seller's market. So you don't want to be on the buying side in a seller's market, right? So the second, um, so that's one big reason people are not willing to sell when people are not willing to sell that makes inventory Um, that hurts inventory because there's not as many houses on the market So people are willing to keep their houses not that many people are trying to sell their houses. Um, you don't see a crash What happens is when we saw an 08 when you have a lopsided effect Where you have a high inventory and a low amount of buyers That's what drives down the market. That's what causes us to have a crash When you go into a neighborhood and all the houses are foreclosed on and not that many people want to buy the houses That itself ladies and gentlemen, we have that's when you get into a crash or a bear market Because people just start selling the house for anything I live back in 08, but I wasn't as a Uh, a stoop investor back then I didn't understand really what was going on I come from the south from the country where people didn't purchase their first home till it was in their Late 40s and 50s. That's if they even purchased a home Um, that's when people kind of purchased home. I didn't really see too many 20 and 30 years old 30-year-olds buying homes You know in my little small town Right, so that goes back to my that goes back to number three number three The biggest buyer base for homes last year in 2021 was millennials Back in 2008. It had this notion That millennials wouldn't be afforded houses and nor would they buy houses that that american dream dream of eating an apple pie behind a White picket fence and that nice suburban home with a dog and a wife and two kids That american dream had changed and millennial was no longer interested According to the data in 2021.  Now we have this millennial market That's out looking to purchase homes like we didn't expect a lot of them not buying homes downtown But they are moving out to the suburbs in purchase homes So you have that consumer base When the purchase homes it makes it has a buyer market Now the other thing I wanted to put into play as well Is we have companies out there, you know, there's been on the show here called roof stock Now Prince, what does roof stock mean roof stock is a company? Where people who live in san francisco, of course the average everyday person who lives in san francisco cannot afford a home Let's look at the average millennial that live in Denver. You probably cannot afford a home Let's say if you do something this basic is like, hey, I'm a college student and I work at Chipotle and I drive uber You're probably not going to afford a single family home in Denver, Colorado Which the average home price is 600 thousand dollars a little bit over 600 thousand dollars And also the average mortgage 30 year mortgage Interest rate is about four or five percent That means on average your mortgage is going to be north of three thousand dollars a month And if you're doing a job like a working at Chipotle in uber, that's going to be a little bit stringy was to do So a lot of people College graduates are walking out of school They're getting salaries like 30 40 50 60 thousand dollars Maybe something like that If you have a family it's hard to support a family on 50 60 thousand dollars when Half or over half of your income is going to just to have a mortgage, you know, 75 percent of the income, right? So houses are now becoming a little bit less affordable But it still doesn't take away from the fact that millennials still want houses And also people who live in high-cost areas like new york la But anywhere in california But when you live in high-cost areas like new york la chicago Some of the high-cost areas Now Millennials have a new technology to where they don't have to buy houses.  They are going to lower cost areas for prime example They purchase their houses in places like michigan where you can purchase a home for a hundred thousand dollars or less Places like alabama, especially in the southern region region where you have alabama, south catalana, georgia um Louisiana some of the small areas that are not as populated not as popular You're able to buy homes and rent them out and have tenants Uh for a hundred thousand dollars or less Which comes out to be maybe three four hundred bucks a month if you're purchasing a house, right? So with that being said people can purchase a home for a hundred thousand dollars And with a hundred thousand dollars they can purchase a home and not only purchase a home But also have a renter So people are renting where they live and they're purchasing where they rent if that makes sense Hopefully it's not a tongue twister. So for example, I live in san francisco I can't afford a home in san francisco But I do make enough money to afford afford rent in san francisco And I can purchase a rental property in the south somewhere like mississippi alabama florida south catalana things like that So those are things you have to pay attention to uh, that's awful right now People can go online right now and purchase homes in places that they don't live in for a significantly lower price Than their current area. Hey, I can't afford a six hundred thousand dollar house But I sure can afford a hundred thousand dollar house. What a renter or a tenant that's in it Great investment property and a great way to purchase home. So you talk about doing this people had the opportunities to do this Um 10 15 20 30 40 50 years ago, but it wasn't as popular nor do we have the technology to reach out to anyone Now the next thing um as we wrap up the show today Um, we said millenniums. We talked about millennials We talked about people not wanting to purchase their house And we talked about low inventory low inventory still remains People don't want to purchase uh sell their homes millennials are still buying homes Making them the biggest percent percentage of the consumer base. And also we're looking at the consumer balance sheet That's another reason we look at the consumer balance sheet people are still When you look at the consumer debt and balance sheets that people have The balance sheets are still in good favor to where people can go out and purchase homes So you look at these factors that are in there Yes, the housing market is doing supposed to do interest rates are going up It's going to cool off the market just like we just saw today. Jerome power came out and said, yeah, we can sell We can see ourselves, um raising the interest rates by 0.5 And the market continued to go down after that news broke even though we had tesla that had great earnings today The market continued to tank due off of the news that Interest rates are going up. So interest rates are they crashing the market? No, they're cooling off the market and when you're cooled off the market, um When you close the market doesn't mean you're going to have a crash means that you're trying to even things out You know, you don't want to extremely high sellers market eventually you want to kind of cool it off where it can be balanced out when you can have a sellers market and A buyer's buyer's market to meet that equilibrium But ladies and gentlemen Those are my points right there. Those are my four points right there while we won't see a housing market crash Maybe a cool off maybe a little bit stabilizing because real estate don't impose a move at 3% a year Now that 40% a year that's been moving at these last couple years.  It means that hey things are kind of becoming back down. Um Evaluations are coming back down to reality. You know, I mean it's unreal to purchase a home for $400,000 And a year and a half later is worth $600,000. That's pretty unrealistic If you keep up on that rate, that means that the interest rate is probably the house is compounding at like 30% a year, which is crazy That mean in a 10 year run the house will be worth about 1.5 million. This is just me Using the guesstimate, but that's not unrealistic and unsustainable So interest rates drying just because we're sitting in the housing market Um, we're going to see less people want to buy houses doesn't mean we're going to have a crash We're trying to correct. That's why the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in 10 15 years About 0.25 a month ago. Now he's talking about doing by 50 base points again and as these interest rates go up It's going to make assets more and more less desirable Like we all know when interest rates are low assets, that's how we create bubbles Right when interest rates are high, this is when we can see assets of price low All right. Well, ladies and gentlemen, that's my time I hope you guys and girls enjoyed it the four reasons why we won't see a housing market crash Put a cool down maybe Um, hope you guys and girls got some out of this until the next video podcast cartoon or whatever it's crazy You see do see us do around the globe make sure you hit that like subscribe comment share button Share this with a friend and a family member And my name is prince dykes. I'm the prince of investment. Peace. Be safe. I'm out and thank you Thank you so much for watching think tech hawaii If you like what we do, please like us and click the subscribe button on youtube and the follow button on vimeo You can also follow us on facebook instagram twitter and linked in and donate to us at think tech hawaii dot com Mahalo