Hi, my name is Leon Rowe currency trader and trading coach at trading 180.com and welcome to this week's supply and demand forex technical Analysis if you are new to the channel and this analysis welcome And if you're returning welcome back, and I always hope that you find Every week the analysis to be useful when applying supply and demand to your own trading Just to let you know as well that there are links in the description box below of the charts and about to analyze in this week's videos and Don't forget to like subscribe and share if you find this useful so starting off this week on the fundamentals and Looking at the week ahead. So the big news is going to be non-farm payroll. So US jobs reports will be keenly watched alongside ISM PMIs foreign trade balance construction spending and factory orders UK market PMIs and monetary indicators as well Germany factory orders that's going to be Probably big for Europe at the moment, you know, Germany is Under a bit of pressure and Germany is Europe's, you know, real powerhouse. So anything that happens to Germany with regards to a slowdown or It's an increase in productivity effects pretty much the whole of Europe China NBS and Kaxin PMIs Japan business sentiment and consumer confidence Australia trade balance retail sales and building permits Investors will react to the RBA policy meeting. So policy meeting basically the Reserve Bank of Australia Cash rate on Tuesday 530 UK time Are looking to actually cut rates where the expectation is for a rate cut, which they're hoping I guess the forecast is the economists to send even the RBA I've said that they're in their interest rate cutting cycle So they want to make the currency cheaper, which should boost the economy in regards to business investment and things like that so We should see potentially a weaker Aussie dollar if it hasn't already been being priced in now Whilst we have this week US-China trade talks g20s going on at the moment and the OPEC meeting. So again as far as headlines goes There was a Bloomberg article so Trump goes to North Korea I think he's the first US president to set foot in North Korea So it looks like things are going I guess decent with regards to relations with North Korea So less risk off Let's refresh this page again Reuters Headline Johnson vass to suspend to boost infrastructure has to do with the UK so Um He's putting his bid forward regarding, uh, brexit and still definitely in the cards with regards to sell trades on on on the pound And headlines after surprise Trump can meet in US North Korea to reopen talks. So that's positive and the market watch headline Again, it's trump to ease. Hawaii ban is US-China trade talk negotiation restart. So It looks like potentially depends on obviously what happens in Sunday open And we'll see if there's a bit more risk on regarding the positivity for the g20 so Let's look at the Technicals now and we start off on the Dow Jones dollar index Dow Jones dollar index So from last week what we had was prices come down into a level of demand and This week kind of, you know, didn't really hold this level had been touched several times to be fair If we draw who is to draw a Demand zone from here with the touched ones, you know, we've considered all of that once twice and usually on the third time The the level tends to want to break it a bit, you know, the more times the level is touched the weaker it becomes so The lower level was a fresher area of demand. You can see where it's kind of held at this level this week US GDP came out at 3.1 Above expectations, which was is really good. So potentially Uh, I guess Decreting the probability of a potential rate cut. So, um, let me look at updating the charts Let's go to US dollar and US dollar index is really just a measure of dollar strength against the major currencies like the euro yen and the British pound as well as the The Australian dollar as well So we're down into this demand zone. So what we want to look for if you're looking to buy the dollar Based on our fundamentals and sentiment. Um, it's really like, you know, for prices to To become bullish around this area here And as they become bullish that should add weight to any dollar Cross trades. So for example dollar yen dollar swiss dollar cad, right? You're looking for buy trades You know, uh, on those um currency pairs When we look at as well, um yearly lows to yearly highs We are actually at fair value. So, um fair value on the dollar from 2019 Lowes that's the lowest it's ever been this year and that's the high we've had a bit of a pull back into fair value So the dollar is I think is worth, um, worth a buy. It's still the best currency out of the worst Regarding, you know, the economy and even a monetary policy wise. So, um, for me a dollar is a buy But if you do want to Uh, get short, I think your next short in opportunity would be if prices, you know Break this demand zone then you'd be looking at getting back Short into some sort of, uh, supply zone from there. So that would create a supply zone Or you'd have to really wait for prices to come all the way up to here for You know prices and then, um, you know buy trades That's what I should say sell trades at supply around here, but um For now, I think the dollar is a buy the dollar really has been a buy for a while Even though there's been some negative sentiment, um, it just means that we can buy the dollar for cheaper So moving on to the dolly yen the dolly yen, uh, this week Press play come down into this demand zone here and it's reacted nicely off of that And that demand zone was basically from way back to Can't can't really see it on the replay, but we'll go to the chart and have a look And it was From Here now why did I draw it from here and not cover this whole area here really interesting because the uh, You know, this was more of an algorithm spike So, um, if we don't take into account the algorithm spike, then this would be really the true Demand zone here at, you know way back when in 2018 in april 2018 So, um, it was a decent level to look for some, um potential long trades If you were trying to pick the absolute lows, but Now that we know there is some proven demand there at that 107 level You could be waiting for prices to potentially pull back Into that area before looking at long trades and again risk would have to really be, um, I guess less off or even on For you to want to buy the dollar against the yen if you are looking to short the yen Sorry short the dollar against the yen and it'll be again if risk off tends to come into the market and risk off is basically risk sentiment Safe haven plays if there is, you know talk of again global slowed down G20 summit meeting comes out as being, um, you know a bit hostile maybe and you know No agreements and further away from kind of coming together Then You know, you probably want to look for shorts within this supply zone here as this was proof of value for the japanese yen But I think uh, I want to be a buyer of the dollar again So potentially waiting for it pull backs into this level here or if prices do You know end up going higher than I think that might be See at the moment if that is What was that be one old open seven six, okay, so it's opened and closed at the same same price So really you're waiting for price to kind of come up to here before or come down to here before looking at any kind of demand zones And buy trade on the dollar yen moving on to the dollar swiss And the dollar swiss has come down into a really really nice zone where I want to be a buyer There was an opportunity down here Um, um, one of the time frames that we trade, but um, I actually missed it I think I was a bit busy didn't look at the chart at the time But looking for probably a pullback for me anyway, um into anywhere around this 97 To 97 50 round number, um around the half number before looking at potential lungs If not down to the lows, so let's go to the chart The swiss And yeah, so looking at potential If we can get you know a bit of a move down and then a move up And if not price would have to come higher That would create a nice demand zone here and then wait for a pullback into that demand zone before getting long, um, if you are looking to trade the swiss By the swiss franc over the dollar based off risk off sentiment, then you'd be looking for Either prices to come all the up to here into this supply zone Or for prices to make new lows this week and as it makes a new low lower low creates A supply zone at the lower high So you'd be waiting for price to come back up to here before looking at short trades to the downside So um And again, that's if you believe that the swiss franc is undervalued at this price the Next pair I want to look at is the dollar cad Dollar cad has come down Getting to a Nice demand zone did react off of that higher demand zone, but it's lower one It was a bit more significant the one three one round number again, just like The I think it was a dollar dollar yen Let's come down into its year. No, so it was the dollar index, but it's come down into its yearly lows So dollar swiss so cad here we go if you look at 2019 Lows to the 2019 highs We are down into the lowest point now again the question you have to ask is what is going to make The dollar either get weaker here Or the cad gets stronger for you to you know want to get short here or is the dollar undervalued against the canadian dollar so um Again, I think it's a decent shorting Opportunity I mean to throw a long potential opportunity apologies For any kind of dollar trades What we also have in that area is an area of Some support and resistance So it's a bit of a wide zone So support resistance All right What you have is Resistance resistance support bit of support resistance within that area Resistance resistance and some support support So we're in a prime area for not only Demand traders who understand that they're buying a potential value But you also have technical traders whose trade support resistance levels Looking at this area here potentially this one free one round number Um putting in a bit of a pin bar here Um, so decent if not, I think the next level down Is going to be probably the lows of That area so again around that one free zero round number. So those are potentially the uh The areas to look for some uh long trades if you're looking to get long if you're looking to get short And buy the canadian dollar Then This area here is going to be your short Your first short trade In order to get The opportunity to buy cad So yes, we've pressed a really kind of a trades back up and then look for Short trades if not, then it's going to be around this one free for two level Next is the new zealand dollar US dollar and the new zealand dollar is um, I think it's been quite undervalued Overall, it's one of the best I think for a fundamental perspective over the past month or so has been um The the figures and data have been actually very positive. They didn't they didn't cut rates Recently, even though they probably are dovish, but they uh held rates So um, that was ended up being quite positive for them. So you can see Basically the uh, the zealand dollar Um, it's been a decent decent buy Um against the us dollar though, um, it wasn't necessarily the would have been the best trade to get short, but Um, there was an opportunity, you know around here a lower time frame trade. It did sell off a little bit But um overall, um, I think it's gone through those supply zones now What we're going to do is look at Um any other opportunities clean up the chart a little bit It's actually created what is known as hidden Demand in this area here You can get rid of that level there and then look for potential Short trades if you want to buy the us dollar and around that area there Right, you got support support support a bit of supply. So anywhere the underside and above Areas to look for short trades and if you're looking to get long you're looking for Prices to kind of come back to this demand zone before looking at getting long um So yeah, pretty decent. I can move probably this Demand zone now it's created quite a large demand zone so That would be where because the last bearish candle for prices make a new High so um Demands are not up to here now and uh looking for some potential long trades if you are looking at that lower area of Demand I think there is going to be The top end that that would be a decent area to look for long trades. So um Yeah decent I think a decent short opportunity around here and especially because when you think about how many days Candles it's gone positive. So you got one two three four five six seven eight nine ten positive days You know you do at least some sort of a pullback Or at least a pause within an area. We could get you know coming into this 0.67 three to six seven 0.678 level so we could see a bit of a sell-off profit taking from these guys And if you bought down here, then you have to sell to exit. So as to the supply and demand equation when we're looking at supply zones um moving on to The pound dollar pound dollar It's been said to sell Um decent sell here right, um Got involved in this on on an eight hour time frame chart But from a daily perspective, you know price to come up into this level here, right and then above that level prices spiked Taking out some stops a bit of a stop hunt That that occurred here And then prices hopefully should be on their way down the reason why you would buy the british pound I have no idea especially because obviously a lot of uncertainty around brexit And what the deals potentially going to be with europe and the longer that continues up until at least the 31st of october The pound for me is not necessarily the best buying award. That doesn't mean that the pound can't go higher You know the markets are manipulated, etc. But um You know for me, I think it's just about shorting, you know the pound For the foreseeable future until such things, you know regarding brexit changes so, um If we start to see and hear about Um, I guess a deal being done then that'll be positive sentiment And you could see the pound start to rally but until that, you know such time It's really just short trades again price to come back up into anywhere around here Looking for potential short trades If you are looking to get long on the uh, the british pound versus the us dollar You'd be looking for prices to come down to here first of all the top end of that level All right, and then maybe the lower end Um, you know the 126 found number just below that and then down to the 121.25 round number at the absolute lows So um for me, uh the pound is um a short trade if this you know doesn't work out then You just look for Zones further up around here And that gives us a better exchange rate a cheaper exchange rate in order to buy the dollar Right against the uh, the british pound in order to us to get short. So we just extend this the other side and um Moving on to the Euro dollar so euro dollar this week We did come up into this round number. I was saying this last week I think there's a definitely a short opportunity around here and there was a nice entry candle that we got involved in um You know break even now it's a break even trader. We can't necessarily lose on this Um, I do expect this to potentially go a bit lower Um, but if it does go higher again, it just presents A buying opportunity For us to buy the dollar for cheaper as the you know, europe isn't necessarily um fantastic at the moment. So um We've got A level here if again if this trade doesn't work out. We're looking at anywhere around here Around above the above these highs um, if you are looking at buying the euro then Really the first opportunity is you're never going to be here Or if prices do create that new high then it creates a demand zone around here And then you'd have to wait for price to come back into this area before looking at you know potential Long trades, but that's only until prices make a new high or high And then they're to pull back into that demand zone, but um for this week I think nothing but short trades if you can get in on anything right short wise Um, I think it's a decent short around this uh, this area here This price area there um So moving on to the euro yen The euro yen this week I think it's been Less risk off risk off is still in in the market, but you know, the euro's rallied slightly to get pullbacks um Supply zone didn't really hold on this one it did because you kind of got the um You know that prices back up into it and then kind of come down so It was a uh was an opportunity But this week it wasn't prices did come up into this area But you know kind of pulled back and then decided to go a bit higher so um as far as opportunities to get long or short In order to buy the yen you're going to Have to believe that the yen is Undervalued here and also that risk off is going to come into the market Right, so if risk off comes into the market then this is a decent short from this area um Or preferably probably up to the highs around this one to 350 level Right, there's a fresher area of of supply If you're looking to buy the euro against the yen This is going to be your first area as we've created A higher high higher low so you're going to pull back into that area And then look for long trades. If not the second area is all the way down into this one to zero One to one level around here It's fine though because you only touched it once so a second touch should be okay if you were looking to get long We potentially may be entering into a ranging market after this trending market here. So Um, yeah shorts or longs within this area You know these highs and these lows um are decent Uh, present decent opportunities But again, if you're if you're shorting this make sure that you know risk is you know off you want to see the headlines really talk about um, you know potential trade wars and things like that so um Moving on to the ozzy dollar and the ozzy u.s dollar is uh I was just trading dollars being going higher and higher. There was a little bit of a supply zone in this area here It did react slightly but nothing major now We're literally climbing and I do think that it's setting up for a uh a short trade We do have the interest rate. Um expectations coming into the market. Um, so Uh, this you know prices have pulled back nicely, you know to expect, you know potential short Just be careful though because If you are shorting The markets tend to get manipulated, right? Because everybody is expecting For there to be a rate cut and what happens of a rate cut you expect Um prices, you know to go to basically fall away All right, where am I? All right, so sort of a prices to kind of fall away. Yeah into to buy the actual u.s dollar But what you might see and what's been happening recently over the past few months with um interest rates cuts and holds is that you'll get a Move in the opposite direction clearing out and drawing in traders to you know the wrong direction before Going on its intended direction. So in the lead up to the um the rate cut What you may see is you know prices maybe You know start to maybe drift off then a rate cut comes out and all of a sudden you maybe get a spike to the upside Yeah, the prices, you know, we'll draw in traders or take out, you know, short stops And then go in its intended direction to the downside. Yeah So, um, just be careful. Um, when if you're trading that in real time, probably wait for You know the dust to settle potentially and then look for some short trades. That's just um Trading advice not financial advice. So um me personally i'm i'm shorts all the way Um, especially if you watched last week as well, uh, there are some big financial institutions that are also short on the australian dollar And again, these are kind of like the trading opportunity So anywhere probably from now up into this, maybe 0.76 0.0 0.0 0.706 Level yeah around here If not again if prices start coming higher, it just means that we can buy the dollar for cheaper and try and get in short round there And finally the osi yen and the osi yen this week Bit of a pullback You know into some supply zones bit of a risk less risk risk off coming into the market and Now potential Shorting opportunities if you believe that risk off is going to come into the market Also with a potential rate cut coming into the market. This could be a decent sell But you'd really want to consider You know the yen is the yen the best currency to short the australian dollar against Again, that's a question for you. My opinion is not really unless again risk is off at the same time so And when I say risk off we're in a risk off environment but really if There's um, you know the headlines really start to kind of change at the moment again looking at You know bloomberg You're seeing handshakes, you know and things like that With Market watch as well. I think you might be seeing You know some some talking positive kind of headlines, etc. So Again, just be Careful when shorting here just manage your stops and look for short trades if you are looking for long trades Then I'm going to do is Get rid of that if there is any kind of positive news coming out of australia Or globally out of china as well because china is australia's biggest trade partner Then you want to look for pullback into any of these zones before looking at long trades and there's a bit of a Level here a bit of resistance there as well to add to that buy trades. So from a technical analysis perspective We've come to an end And the end of this video and hope you enjoyed it Please like subscribe and share to your fellow traders If you have any questions, please get in touch this this week I have been very busy and I do and I will get back to you know any traders that have You know made any kind of comments as well. So guys, I hope you have a great trading week and take care