Good morning, good morning, good morning, good morning. My name is Johnny Carson, and I'm a senior advisor here at the United States Institute of Peace. On behalf of USIP, I want to welcome all of our participants, panelists, and speakers this morning. I am going to be moderating most of today's activities, and will be the clock and timekeeper. So you'll see me up here at the podium from time to time. Before we begin our formal program and introductions, I want to ask all of you to put your phones on vibrate or turn them off so that they do not interfere with any of the discussions or conversations that will take place. I also want to let you know that we will have a system of chimes and bells outside that will announce the start of our programmatic activities after breaks. I also want to encourage everyone throughout today as they ask questions to keep those questions short and succinct and to the point, and also always identify yourself before raising those questions. We have a full program today, and we will have a number of keynote speeches and addresses, panel discussions, and just plain conversations with key African personalities. So on behalf of USIP and our co-hosts, the National Intelligence University, the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the National Intelligence Council, and the Institute of Defense Analysis, we're extremely pleased to have all of you, and it is my great pleasure now to introduce Nancy Lindberg, who is the President of the United States Institute of Peace, and she will start our program now. Thank you. Good morning, everybody, and thank you, Ambassador Carson. It's my great pleasure to welcome everybody this morning to the US Institute of Peace. For those of you who are joining us for the first time, USIP was founded a little over 30 years ago by Congress as an independent national institute dedicated to the proposition that peace is very possible. It's very practical, and it is essential for our national and global security. And so we work around the world with global partners, with community leaders, with national governments, with our partners from defense, state, and USAID to look at what are those practical ways to apply tools and methods and information to prevent and resolve violent conflict. We are delighted to be able to host everybody for this very important conversation today, and as Ambassador Carson said, we have an extraordinary lineup of people and different perspectives. And even as I look out, I see more and more folks who are here with us today who have deep backgrounds. I'd like to extend a special warm welcome today to Undersecretary Tom Shannon and to General Thomas Waldhauser. We very much appreciate you both being here with us today. We have an old friend, Ambassador Don Yamamoto here with us today. And I really want to also acknowledge Ambassador Johnny Carson, an important advisor for us here at USIP, Ambassador Princeton Lyman, who's also a wonderful advisor, and our Africa team. As Ambassador Carson said, we have an extraordinary set of partners in putting this day together. So I would just quickly thank, again, the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, the National Intelligence University, the Institute for Defense Analysis, and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. And our Africa team works in 14 countries across the continent, with particular priorities in places like Nigeria and South Sudan and Central Africa Republic. We work to promote inclusive peace processes, to bridge divides, to bring together state, local and national state, as well as with their citizens, and look at the underlying drivers of violent extremism. And our commitment to the continent very much reflects our nation's understanding that the future of the world will be greatly affected by what happens in this very dynamic and hugely influential continent. So today is a wonderful opportunity to have a discussion about the evolution of the United States' partnership with Africa, with the continent, and the many nations within it, and a partnership that matters greatly to our country. We've seen over these last several decades how we've been able to work with our African partners to support political reform, greater democracy, to ensure fair and free elections. And we've seen just in recent years the ability of citizens to transform autocracies in their countries, often through voting. We've also seen how many African nations have become really important trading partners. We know that the economic potential of Africa is enormous. And its importance as a trading partner will only continue to grow. And of course, our military and security cooperation in battles against al-Shabaab, Boko Haram, other armed groups across the regions remain a pillar of our shared commitment to peace and security. We've seen the value of these partnerships reflected in the very strong bipartisan support that we see for engagement in the halls of Congress. And we also know that despite the power of this partnership and the many great indications of progress that the continent still faces significant challenges, the democratic gains cannot be taken for granted. And although we've seen an overall level of decrease in violence, we still see complex and deeply rooted conflicts in places like DRC, South Sudan, Central Africa. And many of these countries continue to appear at the top of a fragile state's index and levels of terrorism. We've seen the specter of famine and new waves of refugees in Nigeria, South Sudan, and Somalia, all caused by conflict. So as we look at the trends, overall it's positive, but there are challenges that we must pay attention to. We're seeing a heartening increase of action of African nations working together to tackle these challenges. The African Union is taking a greater role to resolve the conflict and to deploy peacekeepers. So today is an opportunity to reflect on those lessons, on those experiences. What does our future relationship look like? What are the avenues for more robust cooperation? And what are the constraints in forging those deeper partnerships? So it's my pleasure to now welcome somebody who can help us set that stage and who has a deep understanding of the relationship between the United States and various African countries. Ambassador Shannon is the current Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs. He's had a long career in the State Department. And although he has a strong reputation as somebody who knows Latin America well, he's also spent many, many years in Africa, including posts in South Africa, Cameroon, Gabon. And he just told me that most of the last four years has had Africa as a priority for his attention. We're delighted that he's been able to join us. Thank you, Ambassador Shannon. And please join me in welcoming him. Good morning. It's a great pleasure to be here today. And thank you, President Lindberg, for your very kind and generous introduction and to you and to Ambassador Carson and to the US Institute for Peace. I'm very grateful for the invitation to participate in this important and timely symposium. And it's a great pleasure to be here with General Waldhauser. Thank you, sir, for taking the time to do this. You've done incredible work at AFRICOM, and we're very grateful. We were last together in London at an event on Somalia with Secretary Mattis. And it's always a pleasure to be with you, sir. Thank you. It's a tremendous pleasure for me to cross 23rd Street and leave behind the 1950s federal architecture of the State Department for the soaring beauty of the United States Institute of Peace. USIP has proven itself to be a unique and vital institution within our policy landscape. It is not only the keeper and dispenser of remarkable expertise in the practice of peace building and conflict resolution, but it is also a convener and convoker of first category. USIP brings together some of our best strategic thinkers and most interesting organizations to discuss, debate, and shape American foreign policy. Today is one such occasion. I'm honored to help open this symposium on the relationship between the United States and Africa with a special focus on the emerging partnerships that will define the relationship in the 21st century. As Nancy noted, I'm long in tooth as a diplomat. I've served our great republic for 34 years. Curiously, I've spent 17 years of that career in the 20th century and 17 years in the 21st century. This fulcrum has allowed me to witness and participate in some remarkable moments of transformation and change. It has also taught me that history does not end, it accelerates. Today, change has velocity, driven by technology and connectivity. My experience has taught me that American power and American values can have a transformative impact on global change. I believe this is especially true for Africa. The partnership that we offer is especially relevant for countries in the midst of profound transitions, from authoritarian to democratic governments, from exclusive to inclusive societies, from autarkic models of development to ones based upon open markets and regional integration, and from global isolation to intense participation in world events. As we consider the purpose and nature of our relationship with Africa, it is important to note two things. First, Africa's emergence as a point of global interest and strategic convergence. What happens on the continent over the next few years will shape the world's economy, security, and well-being. Africa is no longer an addendum to global geopolitics. Instead, it is a bridge from the Indo-Pacific region to the larger Atlantic community, while also connecting directly to Europe and the Middle East. In the State Department, it touches every geographic bureau, and at the Defense Department, it connects to every geographic command. In short, Africa's centrality makes it immediately relevant to our success and demands attention and engagement. Second, as far as the United States is concerned, Africa is already a continent of allies and partners. With a few notable exceptions, the vast majority of African states share our commitment to free markets equitable trade, democracy, and the rule of law, secure borders, and effective responses to global terrorist threats. African states' progress towards open markets and free trade have spurred economic growth and development and tremendous opportunity across the continent. Indeed, six of the world's 10 fastest-growing economies are in Africa. By 2030, Africa will represent almost a quarter of the world's workforce and consumers. And by 2050, Africa's population is projected to double to 2 billion people. And our balance of trade with Africa is near parity, thanks to booming demand for infrastructure investment, aircraft, consumer products, and services. African states consistently attract strong investor attention from American companies. Democracy and the rule of law are also advancing on the continent. Competitive participatory elections are becoming the norm. Just two weeks ago, we witnessed the Supreme Court of Kenya's decision to overturn the August 8 presidential elections, and President Kenyatta's mature decision to respect that ruling. The independent legal process and broad support and respect for the court's decision reflect the strength of Kenya's democracy. Finally, African allies and partners are stepping forward to lead regional initiatives to address long-running conflicts and humanitarian crises. In the Lake Chad Basin, Nigeria, Niger, Chad, and Cameroon formed the multinational joint task force to fight Boko Haram and ISIS West Africa in our coordinating military operations, civilian security, and humanitarian assistance. The United States is proud to support this and other regional initiatives to bring security and stability to citizens affected by conflict and food insecurity. Though there is much to commend in recent developments on the continent, we all know that African states continue to face significant challenges. And any relationship, however strong, requires care and nurturing if it is to grow. As President Trump, Secretary Tillerson, and our national security team engage with our African partners, they will be guided by four strategic purposes. First, advancing peace and security. Doing so yields dividends for citizens in Africa and advances our own national security. We are looking to African partners to take the lead in resolving regional conflict. And we will continue to partner with the African Union and regional organizations that lead successful efforts to end violence and prevent mass atrocities. While our hope and commitment to seeing an end to the devastating man-made crises in the DRC, South Sudan, and other locations is enduring, the long-term sustainability of our financial commitment requires continuing contributions from our assistance partners. We will also require greater political commitment from African leaders who want peace and stability in their countries and in their region. This will ensure that our support and investment is effective and enduring. On the continent, we are working to build the capacity of regional peacekeepers, whose numbers continue to increase in Africa. In the past year, we have provided training to peacekeepers from over 20 African countries actively engaged in UN and African Union peacekeeping operations. This engagement has allowed more than 10 battalions to deploy more effectively into some of the world's most dangerous operations in Somalia, Mali, South Sudan, and the Central African Republic. Generously, Africans now comprise over 70% of the peacekeepers in Africa, up from 40%, just 10 years ago. We acknowledge that peacekeeping comes with tremendous risk. We both mourn and honor those Africans who have given their lives in peacekeeping operations. The United States also addresses peace and security through humanitarian assistance to vulnerable populations, such as refugees and internally displaced people. In 2016, we provided more than $1.5 billion US dollars to UNHCR's humanitarian operations with the support of USAID and the Department of State's Bureau of Population Refugees and Migration, for example. An estimated 1.8 million people in South Sudan receive lifesaving humanitarian assistance every month. Our work to advance peace and security is not just regional. Increasingly, it is global. African states are partnering with us to address the danger that North Korea presents to the world. We asked African countries to join us in restricting political and economic engagement with North Korea, shutting down North Korea's illicit trade networks, and publicly opposing North Korea's reckless missile and nuclear tests. Numerous African partners have taken concrete action, but more needs to be done. Second, countering the scourge of terrorism. This administration seeks to partner with African allies to confront and counter terrorism in Africa, including defeating Boko Haram, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, and ISIS West Africa. In recent years, African countries have intensified their regional and domestic efforts to take greater ownership on this front, often with great success. In Somalia, the African Union and Somali security forces are driving out al-Shabaab. Working through AU leadership, regional peacekeeping partners such as Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia, Burundi, and Djibouti are helping to lead the way in this effort. Military law enforcement and intelligence tools are vital to defend against these threats, but military force alone is not enough to sustain peace. We must work with our partners, including civil society, traditional authorities, and religious leaders, to address root causes of conflict, combat marginalization, and create economic opportunity. There is no long-term solution to terrorism absent this comprehensive approach. Any progress in our counterterrorism efforts, however, will be undone by abuse of an illegal behavior by security forces. We will continue to hold our allies to the highest standards and ensure that individuals who fail to respect human rights in this important fight are held accountable. The challenge now is for our African partners to complement their successes on the battlefield with trained law enforcement personnel to provide civilian security and economic policies to kickstart more abundant local economies. Third, promoting prosperity through economic growth and investment. This administration seeks to do business not just in Africa, but with Africa, moving the focus of our economic relationship with the continent from aid to trade and investment. Trade will be free, fair, and reciprocal. And our investors will be more competitive. This is about creating jobs for both Americans and Africans throughout the continent. One of our most important bipartisan endeavors in the economic arena is the African Growth and Opportunity Act, or AGOA. AGOA has been the cornerstone of US economic engagement with the countries of Sub-Saharan Africa since 2000. To highlight a few of the achievements, US investment in Sub-Saharan Africa increased from $9 billion a year in 2001 to $34 billion in 2014 and created over 300,000 jobs across Africa. US exports to Africa rose at an even faster rate from $6 billion in 2000 to $25 billion in 2014. And US imports from Sub-Saharan Africa under AGOA totaled almost $11 billion in 2016, a 14% increase from the previous year alone. These successes and the knowledge that trade helps strengthen democratic institutions and reinforces regional stability are prime reasons the US Congress overwhelmingly approved legislation in 2015 to reauthorize AGOA for 10 more years. We remain committed to our economic partnerships with Africa and will continue to seek opportunities to strengthen two-way trade and investment. USAID, for example, has established three trade hubs to help the African private sector take advantage of AGOA and expand exports to the United States. Additionally, the Millennium Challenge Corporation, or MCC, provides economic assistance to governments that have already established good policy environments. Most of the MCC's work has been and continues to be in Africa. Finally, promoting democracy and good governance, efforts to secure enduring peace are undermined when governments fail to provide good governance and uphold the rule of law, the foundation for security, and the driver of inclusive economic growth in free societies. We see the corrosive effects of corruption as fundamentally detrimental to the future success of African societies. An AU study estimated corruption costs the continent roughly $150 billion US dollars last year, or per year. Bribes and low-level corruption worsen poverty and inequality and harm citizens' faith in government. Corruption, particularly at the highest levels, deters foreign investment, foments instability, and diminishes the capacity of security forces and other institutions to deliver basic services. The United States will continue to partner with regional organizations to advance good governance and the rule of law. In the Gambia, when President Jammé reneged on his commitment to accept the results of the presidential election in December 2016, the Economic Community of West African States, or ECOWAS, stepped up with other regional leaders to take a principled stand for democracy. ECOWAS and regional leaders organized a strong diplomatic campaign to influence President Jammé to give up power. He ultimately stepped aside, peacefully ceding power to his democratically elected successor, President Barrow. This was an excellent example of an African-conceived and African-managed effort in strengthening democracy, and then one that we are proud to support. Luckily, our acting assistant secretary for African Affairs, Ambassador Don Yamamoto, will talk later today in a deeper and more detailed fashion on the importance of good governance and democracy. So it's not my purpose to take from him his speech. But I do want to underscore that, as Nancy noted, I've spent most of my career in Latin America and Africa. I spent two years working in the African Bureau on Central African Affairs, and four years in Johannesburg as a regional labor officer traveling throughout Southern Africa, but also working directly with the South African trade union movement from 1992 to 96. I learned a lot during this period of time, but I learned a lot about democratic development. And the thing that has struck me and that I have carried with me from Africa is not just the importance of civil society and grassroots development to democracy, but also that our understanding of democracy, the United States' understanding of democracy, must move beyond the institutional and electoral aspects of democracy, and must understand the importance of building democratic societies and states. Because ultimately, our purpose is not just to allow citizens to have a voice in determining their national destiny and creating a mechanism for peaceful transfer of power. It's also to help countries ensure that individuals have a voice in determining their own destiny. In other words, in having not just the opportunities, but the resources necessary in order to achieve what they want to achieve, what our founding fathers would call the pursuit of happiness. There's remarkable people in this audience today. I see dear friends like Linda Thomas Greenfield and others who have worked so hard on Africa. And I've been lucky enough over time to work with groups of diplomats who shaped my understanding of diplomacy and shaped my understanding of the world. And many of them have worked on Africa. And my time in Africa has added to that education because it was not just a diplomatic education, it was a political education. And I learned from the Africans I worked with. And it is knowledge that I have carried with me across an entire career. And as I noted at the beginning, I understand and recognize the profound impact the United States can have in helping societies shape themselves. And as we look deeper into our future with Africa and the partnerships that we have already and that we will continue to develop, it's absolutely important, it is absolutely important that we become relevant every day to Africa's success. And again, I thank you all for your patience this morning. I thank you for the opportunity to speak to you. Let me conclude by saying that Africa is a place of trusted friends and partners. We must continue to journey together in our quest for peace and security, inclusive democracy and good governance, a trained workforce with economic opportunities and an empowered civil society. As an old African proverb says, if you want to go quickly, go alone. If you want to go far, go together. We plan to go together with our African partners. Thank you very much. Thank you, Ambassador Shannon, for those very good and comprehensive opening remarks. We are going to move immediately into our first discussion and I would like my two discussants to come up and sit here with me at the front. Everyone has a program. We will stick to that program throughout the day. You will probably note on that program that it says that Ambassador Princeton Lyman is going to be the moderator of this discussion. Princeton is at home today, probably listening to this broadcast and recovering from surgery several days ago. We all here at USIP and I'm sure his friends and the audience wish him a speedy recovery. And Princeton, I do as well. I'm going to go over here and begin our first discussion. This morning we have two commentators with me to talk about the perception of the United States in Africa. The first discussant is Dr. Michelle Indayé who is the director of the African Peace and Security Program at the Institute of Peace and Security at the AU in Addis Ababa. She is a citizen of Senegal but is resident in Addis Ababa. Our second discussant will be Yvonne Akoth who is the founder and director of Impart Change. She is also associated with USIP, is a generation change fellow. She is based in Kenya and has established there one of the most dynamic programs for empowering youth to promote peace and stability in her country and in the East African region. I'm going to start this discussion with them by quickly asking them a couple of questions about their views and perceptions of the United States and the partnership relationship that we have. Michelle, how would you characterize the US relationship with Africa in 2017 and how do you think that relationship has evolved over the last two decades? Thank you Ambassador Calston. I am pleased to be here. I've been with USIP for the past two months on a small sabbatical which is great. I would like on the onset just to say that this conversation should not be about a stop-taking exercise. I think your first question on perception really will set the tone of this conversation because we work at the intersection between civil society organization, decision makers in Africa, academia, the youth and it's important to look at issues of perception and the impact it has on the US-Africa relationship. But I would like to first of all say when we talk about perception, I think it is important to look at it from an African perspective and of course the perception are always subjective but they are important to not. So I will just look at few issues around perception just quickly to set the tone of this conversation and the first one when you talk about to policy makers, to young people, to women's groups, civil society organization what come to mind is first the donor-recipient relation. And I mean by donor-recipients the interlinked bilateral, multilateral, political, economic, social, military relationship seen through the eyes of the work that the US-AID is doing but also through Africa for example for the security cooperation. And it's actually meaning and I will quote recently on a conversation a prominent African decision-maker who said very clearly we currently have no engagement with the new administration but it's a good thing for us because it means that we don't need a father, we need a partner. And I think that ease can summarize what some of the decision-makers in Africa think about this partnership. We need equal partnership a partnership where we are on equal footing we don't need a father. That is quite important. The second one I think on issues of perception is and I'm saying it across the board again working with different groups and actors on the continent. The second one is short-term priority long-term commitment. And with commitment we know the long-term commitment and I think Ambassador Shannon said it very clearly that Africa is quite important on the US foreign policy agenda and it's been 50 years of very important engagement and official engagement. But the nature of the engagement follow different trends and it's driven certainly time-to-time by contextual imperative and I think that is quite important to mention here. But it has been always policy choices to address the complexity of the moment but it has been always focusing on short-term priority and this is one of another perception. Short-term priorities but long-term commitment. How do we turn that around to make it a long term to align those priorities with the long-term commitment? And I will just give you an example when you talk of USID, AID for example well it's the symbol of the donor relationship the donor recipient relationship and this is despite the massive investment on HIV aid, health issue, democratization on the continent and so on and so forth trade and investment and so on and so forth but those are perception again subjective but important to mention. Can Michelle, I'm going to try and turn this into more of a broader discussion and I'd like to jump if I could across to Yvonne and ask her the question of how do Africa's elites and civil society groups view the relationship and partnership with the United States? What is the sense of relevance of the United States to Africa today among its elites, among its youth and especially among its youth you work with young Africans what are their perceptions and views of the United States? Thank you so much Ambassador Castle for giving me this opportunity to uplift the voices of African youth specifically Kenyan youth who would have not had this opportunity. Our view as young people in Africa on our relationship with the US is that there's a lot of mutual interests for instance most of the programs that are being implemented by US partners focus on poverty, eradication good governance, peace and security and these are issues that concern as many African youth concern many African youth all over the continent. This relationship is also not only mutual but it's also progressive. It is progressive to us because we've seen that in this decade starting from I can say 2010 when the US government unveiled the Young Leaders Initiative Program that is the Yali Young Africa Young African Leaders Program and the program that I'm also here in the US courtesy of the US Department of State Community Solutions and the Generation Change Program that is supported by USIP. These are programs that have been brought by the US to help young people in Africa to work on the same issues that they are passionate about and also that the US would like to see a change in. So as young Africans we see the need for this partnership to continue though there are challenges that come in when it comes to investment because we observe that there is a lot of investment in terms of technical expertise, capacity building which some of these programs actually all of them are fantastic at doing but when it comes to financial investment there is a lot of bureaucracies for African youth who really want to partner with the US and other international partners without going through a lot of bureaucracies and for us we've noticed that this is a challenge because the investment is done mainly through the government but African youth organizations especially local organizations and regional organizations we have so many youth networks in Africa that have beautiful documents strategies of how African youth can shape this continent or shape our continent. Some of them are like the African Union Youth Commission the network of young women African leaders Rojul Nuu, a Francophone youth organization that has done fantastic work in addressing HIV just using youth ideas and youth structures but lack funding yes once in a while we are able to get funding from international partners like the US government or other partners the United Nations but this needs to be done in a way that is really accessible to these young people who have brilliant ideas but cannot sell them so well because of bureaucracies that are set in place or institutional structures that they cannot penetrate through May I jump in and ask you both what are the programs that are carried out by the United States government and by United States institutions that most align with the interests of Africa today and what are the programs that don't align with the interests of Africa and what should the US be doing in Africa today that it is not doing from your particular vantage points I would look at for example the area of peace and security and I do believe that there has been a sustained investment in supporting the African military institution or security institution to in terms of training but also improving capabilities and so on and so forth I do believe that investment in the democratization process is another important one but when it comes to development aid and I think issues of aid effectiveness will kick in and I do want to to emphasize that it is important that and I'm happy that Ambassador Shannon has said it on the third pillar of the priority the US priority that it's important to move from aid to from development aid to more investment in Africa and I think that is precisely where we should be heading less aid, more investment and I think I'm quite pleased that that happened is happening and it's part of the the priorities. I also think that issues of of justice and human rights abuse corruption are also I think very important on the agenda for both the US and Africa and I do also think that issues of corruption should be pushed more to be a top priority these are I think very critical from both both sides. Yvonne do you share those views about the alignment? Yes, yes I agree with Dr. Dayer and for instance some of the programs that I can share that are working so well in Africa like for instance for me I'm a peace advocate by profession is what generation change program is doing in Kenya and in 10 other countries in Africa and in the Middle East the skills that are giving young people who are from different sectors not necessarily peace and security is really playing a big role in their countries and in their communities by giving young people the skills and the knowledge to address conflicts when conflicts are small as interpersonal conflicts to intergroup or intercommunity conflicts so the generation change program is one program that is in my view is working so well the other program is the young African leadership initiative that was started by President Obama this program has reached young people from rural areas who never have had the opportunity to get the skills and the knowledge and the information that they have because it's easy for them to apply the process is very transparent it's not for elitist youth and it has reached thousands of youth all over West Africa, East Africa, South Africa and North Africa so for me this program is really working well in addition to the Mandela program and I can see this especially looking at how the youth leaders what youth leaders are doing now with their life post the program the other program is community solutions the community solutions program it brings young people from I think 55-54 countries to the US Africa could be around 10 countries and these are young people that work on issues that are affecting the world right now like tolerance and conflict resolution climate change and environment transparency and accountability we know Africa sometimes we have so many issues of governance those are some of the programs that are working for us because we are able to get practical knowledge and also gain a lot of experience from US partners but what I really agree with Dr. Daya is when it comes to investment well it is good to invest in hard power yes but soft power is also important for us when you look at issues around social entrepreneurship social innovation for young people and innovation sometimes what makes it confusing for Africans African youth it doesn't have to be technological always it could be just a different way of doing something that does not involve technology so if we can get ways of working together and empowering young people to improve their economic status issues of poverty would not be a problem issues of engaging in violent crimes or conflicts being radicalized into Al-Shabaab will be an issue that is not arising and yes some of these opportunities are there but as I shared earlier the process of getting support it can be a bit too technical especially for youth who for instance have not gone to university or are from rural areas and may not have the experience of the exposure where do US and Africa interests differ where is the the difference in the conflict if there is any with respect to priorities and interests and activities where does Africa see the United States doing less than it should or being less engaged than it should be I think there are a number of sectors that we could look at where I believe that again coming back to the issue of perception that when we started the conversation there could be more investment on strengthening security institutions for example and I think this is in line was a common thinking that is the only way to be able to face security challenges that the continent is currently facing the second one I think is more on democratization and I am also happy that Ambassador Shannon said very clearly we should not electorize democracy let's shy away a little bit from election and invest more on the other aspect of democracy but I do believe that issues of governance has to be looked at more seriously I think we need to do more on that and that is perhaps the common position where there could be sanctions for example for against corruption and a number of countries will call for those sanctions to happen but they are yet to come when it comes to election for example I think there has been a lot of support and we seeing the result and tangible result today the Kenya case is one of them and we look for more of those headlines but quite important when you discuss democracy and democratization process in Africa I also think that there is one area particularly that is quite important today is the support to young people and when we talk of investment and trade earlier which is the third pillar of the strategy that Ambassador Sharon just outlined I think it's important to determine the actors that are the most important on the African continent today and the youth is one of them and more investment on that sector would perhaps help as we know the demographic boom is a dividend for some particularly in Africa but also could be a bomb a ticking bomb for some of the actors who are familiar with the African continent so we need more investment to support the youth and I think that's really one of the one of the particular actors that need to be targeted in looking at the global picture those are the issues that are quite important and of common interest currently Ivan any thoughts on where there is a not a set of common interests between the US and Africa and I'd also like you to maybe comment on the fact on the issues that Michelle just raised are African leaders in African civil society in the same place when it comes to issues of democratization are they in the same place when it comes to support for Africa's youth and are they in the same place when it comes to issues of dealing with corruption and government malfeasance what I can share about that for instance for now African youth really like a lot of American programs because these programs have opened for them numerous opportunities but looking at what happened in Kenya the other day it is becoming young people are feeling like especially if you read the comments from social media and other platforms that as much as we really appreciate the knowledge and the skills and the resources we are getting from international partners international partners also need to take time and really understand our context without maybe like I don't know this may not be politically correct but telling us what to do or just agreeing with that without really understanding what is happening that is one of the challenges because Africa has really grown a lot especially the young generation now is not like even a generation a decade ago they are more informed they know what is happening on the ground so it doesn't matter if someone from another part of the world or an expert comes to tell them that this is what is happening and this is what you should do well they will listen but deep down they know that this is not right and in as far as civil society youth elites are in the same let's say in the same platform have the same thinking in terms of democracy with the government that is very relative now because young people in Africa now that they are more informed and educated and exposed they want to see a lot of change and specifically change that can improve their lives for the better so they want to have leaders who are accountable they are tired of seeing corruption going on and on and that is why you find like in countries like Nigeria where they started the campaign of not too young to run the campaign also took over in Kenya where we had so many young people standing for electoral posts and at least this time we had a much bigger percentage than the year before so these are issues that we are still discovering rediscovering ourselves I'm sure for many African governments they are also learning that these are not the same African youth Kenya at this moment is setting a precedence because this is something that nobody would work but the fact that it has worked it has made African youth more stronger and made African youth to have a mind of we really don't need to listen to what someone else tells us we just need to know that what we are doing is right so for African youth it would be a situation where the US and other international partners really need to understand what is happening on the ground before giving a comment or before supporting because they could be supporting the wrong thing without knowing really what is happening on the ground and the US strengthened its outreach to Africa's youthful population Africa is in fact the youngest continent in the world and it is also the fastest growing continent in the world what more needs to be done in terms of reaching out to Africa's youth to make a difference a profound difference in their lives and in the partnership that we seek to build. I can look at it in terms of I think the best way that can be helped is investment but there are two kinds of investment investing in young people's social entrepreneurship projects because unemployment is a big problem in Africa and we have so many young people who are working on ideas, brilliant ideas but have no source of funding for that and that is a challenge but not focusing only on social entrepreneurship projects but also social change programs programs that focus on peace building countering violent extremism because we have so many young leaders young people working on the ground living even in places where young people are being recruited to join terrorists but these young people don't have the skills to deal with this issue but they are really passionate so there is also an urgent need to invest in this kind of programs both social change programs and social impact programs and especially financially. Yes a lot has been done on programs that bring African leaders for instance youth leaders to the U.S. but we also need programs that we really can invest on the ground so that they don't have to come to the U.S. to get these skills but these skills can be given to them while they are in the community. I just wanted to talk a little bit about the aspect on the gap between African elites and the youth currently and I think issues of technology has transformed the African social landscape profoundly and if there is a gap that is recognized today is that decision makers have not understood well that Africa has changed and the young people have changed along the line of the evolution of technology today. They are more informed as Yvonne said but also ready to take up the challenge and to face their decision makers and to challenge decisions that are made and that are not in the communities and we are seeing it more and more. In 2016 for example the number of riots on the African continent had actually generated a lot of change in terms of people understanding that young people are demanding more and more in terms of democratization process and everything is criticized. You have to be on the continent to see the change of young people and social media about almost everything not only about economic opportunities for them but also about the justice system how to reform the justice system service delivery public service delivery education, health, et cetera and I think that's the difference between those who are in power today with what the youth is demanding currently and I think that is quite important and this is I think a debate that needs to happen at the level of the continent where our leaders understand that things have changed and it will never go back to where it was 50 years ago or 30 years ago. Obviously it is important to bridge that gap between Africa's growing young population and its older leaders who may increasingly be out of touch with their youth and their visions of the future are. Let me come back to an issue where I think the U.S. and Africa are in alignment and that is the desire to see greater peace and security across the continent and into conflicts whether they are historical legacy conflicts like those that may exist in the Democratic Republic of the Congo or Somalia or whether they are conflicts that arise out of terrorism associated with AQIM or with Al-Shabaab. Clearly there's been a strengthening of the security relationship and partnership across the continent but can you both say or can I ask you how can we do more or what more can be done to work on the economic and social and political issues that may be the root causes of some of these conflicts what more can be done to align itself with the security sector partnerships that are growing? Well I believe that the long-term commitment that we mentioned that I mentioned earlier is one of them. There has been sustained investment in the area of security, peace and security in general but I believe even in that sector the peace and security landscape there's more to be done in terms of aligning the support with the needs of the Africans and when I say that I'll go back to the agenda of the African Union for example I do believe that the US could support more the development of the African peace and security architecture and invest more on that in terms of bilateral agreement through bilateral agreement and sometimes multilateral agreement providing training providing certain capabilities but I think it's not enough it's aligning that support was the current doctrine of what the African Union calls the African peace and security architecture that looks at to a global approach on how to resolve the security challenges on the continent and if you look at it from that point of view we'll be able then to touch on issues of governance the linkages between peace and security and governance democratization processes post-conflict and reconstruction particularly investing on post-conflict countries and fragile countries to avoid relapsing to conflict and I think this is an area perhaps where we should see more engagement from the US I believe that also a number of things are being done when it comes to prevention and I always say I'm not a fan of prevention because it's always difficult to prevent conflict and we should be doing more on prevention but I think it's important to look at it from a more human security perspective whereby development support or investment as we speak today should be focusing on addressing the root causes of those conflicts and this is prevention of course people will say it's a long-term perspective but in this area it can only be a long-term perspective with of course short-term priorities but longer-term priorities I think Ivana are we doing enough with youth to prevent them from drifting into conflict drifting into radicalization drifting into violence okay we are making a significant progress but what most African youth have been thinking in myself which has been on my mind for quite some time is that there's an urgent need for institutions like the AU, US partners to involve African youth when they're formulating policies because these policies affect young people and not only youth policies public policies that affect youth but at the national level in this case at the regional level because when you look at policies on security young people who for instance have background in matters social justice have ideas how this could work because it's the same young people who are engaged in conflict or in violence in countries like Somalia in some parts of Ethiopia maybe Kenya so if young people can be involved in policy review processes or policy development processes all together that would really help this situation become much better. We also need hands-on experience if it would really be good for young people to be put in to be allowed to attend missions as observer to be part of observer missions at the AU and this is something also I think the US partnership with the AU can play a big role in making successful because we don't want to talk from the sideline we really want to be part of the solution we don't want to watch these conversations on TV or on YouTube because we are forced to do that but if there's an opportunity to engage that would be important because we are also looking at what we are doing. Yes we talk of the leadership of tomorrow but it's the young people who are having these challenges both the young people struggling to find solutions and both the young people participating in violence not intentionally but of course due to a few challenges and issues are there then what the US can also do is and the AU and other institutions provide platforms to engage platforms that are easily accessible because we find that and for I really work on which is peace and security. Engaging in matters of peace and security as I shared with Dr. Daye earlier it's a bit difficult for African youth who have some brilliant ideas that can contribute to these issues because we are the same ones who work with these young people in places like Majango for instance in Kenya which has been the hub of young people being recruited to join Al-Shabaab in Somali so we have some brilliant ideas from them but we have nowhere to share these there are no structures. Yes there could be a little structures mostly aided by the government and the US Embassy but I think there need to be another platform to engage and to have as many young people know that your voices are being heard and we can work together to make our communities much much safer so I would make those three recommendations I mean bring our conversation to a close we are going to try to continue to maintain our schedule this morning let me ask you just for one last and quick comment if you had a single recommendation to make to Under Secretary Tom Shannon about something that the US could do to strengthen the US-Africa partnership going forward what would that single recommendation be? Well I would just say the relationship need no vacuum you have to sustain it you have to nurture it and I think he said it very clearly so we are waiting for something to chew on and I think that's the message that I would like to give waiting for something to chew on relationships cannot exist in a vacuum yeah my message would be more direct it would be partner with local and regional youth-led organizations and networks because they have brilliant ideas and I think they need to be given an opportunity to be had let's just find a way of also partnering with these youth networks and organizations okay thank you very very much I appreciate your comment we are now if I could thank you very very much for those comments let me say that we're about to have a 15 minute coffee break we have coffee and tea and some small refreshments outside 15 minutes the chimes will signal when we should be back here we are going to try to march along very very smartly in terms of our timing and we will resume in 15 minutes we're going to jump right into our next panel discussion on governance institutions and effective partnerships the moderator for this portion of the program will be Jud DeVermont who is the national intelligence officer for Africa at the ODNI Jud I'm going to let you introduce the panelists there will in fact be a question and answer the session from the audience following this panel Jud Thank you Ambassador Carson my name is Jud DeVermont I'm the national intelligence officer for Africa at the National Intelligence Council and I have a pleasure of moderating our first panel we put together a group of distinguished speakers to share their insights today with you Dr. Peter Lewis is the associate professor and the director of the African studies program at the John Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies Mr. Maletsi Mnbeki is the deputy chairman of the South African Institute of International Affairs and Ambassador Don Yamamoto is the assistant secretary the acting assistant secretary for African Affairs at the Department of State we've asked our panelists today to consider a number of questions including what are governance norms and trends that are currently predominant in Africa is there a growing disconnect between political elites and the general public about what governance should look like in the future and in what ways are civil societies political parties and the press evolving and engaging with outside actors you know these are issues that we at the National Intelligence Council have been thinking about for the past year and I suspect that our panelists will agree when I say that the governance landscape in Africa is truly shifting after two decades since the wave swept across this continent we're seeing Africans take to the streets again in record numbers pushing for better governance more accountability and effectiveness you know this is in contrast to what we see academics talk about in terms of a global drift towards authoritarianism in Africa democracy remains a potent ideal according to Afrobarometer polling 80% of Africans support democracy that's up from 65% just 10 years ago nearly this is really astounding nearly two thirds of African countries in 2016 experienced protest in fact 2016 and 2015 the scale of protests matched the protests we saw in the 1980 late 1980s early 1990s in terms of the rates and more than two thirds of these protests there was a call for democratization according to USAID study of course African governments are not sitting down watching passively we are seeing many governments resist this pressure from below there are some governments that have been curbing civil liberties restricting political space we have seen an increased number of internet blackouts government intimidation and the flouting of judicial decisions so I would like our panelists today to really think about the role of the United States during this heightened contestation for democratization Washington is almost certainly going to be asked by African publics to referee this contested area and it is equally likely that African governments are going to react poorly but they may perceive as an interference in internal affairs so I think the question for us today both audience and panelists is how does the United States navigate and shape this changing governance landscape in Africa and we have to do that while balancing a number of the priorities that Ambassador Shannon mentioned peace and security and economic investment and perhaps our panelists in the audience can share a couple of best practices too on how to work with both African governments and the public to strengthen governance and advance democratic institutions so with that let me turn to Peter to give some initial remarks thank you Judd that was a great way of framing actually my remarks and the entire issue that we're considering in this panel thinking historically we are confronted today with questions of democratic performance and democratic practice, democratic resilience and if we think back two decades we were very much in a transitional conversation and a conversation about the advance of democracy across Africa and its possible persistence today the dialogue among African citizens and among outside observers and people engaged with Africa is about institutional performance about accountability competition and of course inequality which has its own resonance and its own dilemmas as they manifest in politics, in countries as diverse as South Africa Nigeria or Ethiopia so there are possibilities for further democratic expansion democratic consolidation obviously as we'll talk about we'll talk about momentarily but we should also recognize the resilience of existing systems and the continued challenges there's been a lot of discussion as Judd referenced and is referenced in some of the materials for the conference about a democratic recession a so-called democratic recession in Africa and globally in countries as far ranging as Mozambique, Tanzania Kenya, Zambia South Africa, Burundi Nigeria, Senegal, Mali we see a range of disquieting problems, flawed elections executive overreach corruption scandals resurgent or recurrent violence suppression of civic groups or media and these raise concerns for us about the quality of democracy and general trends of governance in the region there is also a resurgent authoritarianism among some countries including Rwanda, Ethiopia and Uganda which add to these concerns but if we look at some general trends and some broad indicators and as a political scientist that's often where I start I'm going to just show very quickly a few slides using data from three different sources one is polity which is a data set at the University of Maryland which tracks different types of regimes around the world the second being freedom house which will be familiar to many people here a third which is an emerging data set and measurement scheme known as varieties of democracy which is based at the university of Goettingen in Sweden and also some mergers of data from the economist and what we see tells a very consistent story I'm aiming at something and it's not there we go there we go and let's see if we can advance the next slide is that not working? yeah how does that the technology always fails here we go yeah excellent so this is a very quick picture of the continent from 1985 to 2015 a transformation the color scheme one needs not to go into the details except to say that red and orange are less good and green and yellow are better with green being the most democratic countries these are polity data so we see the transformation across the continent this is also a linear depiction of the trends again with the democracies being tracked at the bottom in yellow smallest category but they rose substantially in the 1990s as we well know and they've essentially plateaued with some blips with the awkwardly named anocracies in green and or rather autocracies pardon me anocracy is another term and then intermediate regimes so we see a dramatic shift in the character the overall character of regimes across Africa in the early 1990s and those trends have broadly been sustained here again hard to read but the yellow line is Africa the black line at the top is the world and this is tracks the consolidation of democracy and there was a sharp upward trend in the early 1990s plateauing in the mid 1990s but continuing in a slow upward track underperforming the world but considerably overperforming the Middle East and North Africa which is at the bottom in freedom from freedom house the green bar is the percentage of African countries that are considered free the yellow bar is partly free and the blue bar is autocracies are not free we see a somewhat unsettling trend of a slight increase from 2003 but again generally speaking there was a dramatic change in the composition and this picture shows us continuity here too is another depiction it's both a map and a depiction of trends in the lower left corner from the economist using both World Bank and polity data and again the category of free countries the upper blue portion in the box in the lower left remains consistent there's some wobbling in the intermediate category and a small uptake in recent years in the autocracies but again the lines here are relatively continuous and the final picture that I want to show is simply these lines from sub regional trends in electoral democracy from the varieties of democracy dataset and again we see the similar trend so really what I'm depicting here and what I think we should be mindful of is that different people are trying to measure democracy in different ways in Africa and track it in different ways electoral more substantive diverse governance indicators from the World Bank free partly free not free from Freedom House intermediate regimes and democracies from polity and they all come out in essentially the same place that there was a dramatic uptake an exponential advance an increase in the scope and scale of democracy in Africa in the early 90s which has been sustained and so we see today divergent trends across the continent on the one hand there has been a sustained democratic trend in terms of regimes democratization has opened broad political space for protest for discourse and for information even in countries that are not fully democratic and it has fostered new social groups that advocate for rights and accountability emerging and rising middle classes and growing populations of urban youth are at the forefront of these new social groups that are making democratic claims and advancing democratic interests opposition parties have made genuine gains in Nigeria, Ghana, Zambia South Africa Gambia, Burkina Faso there's been institutional development in many democracies most recently signaled by the Kenyan Supreme Court ruling the Nigerian elections of 2015 the failure of third term bids in Senegal and Nigeria civic organizations and media are vibrant channels of information, discourse and protest in South Africa in Nigeria, in Kenya and numerous other countries but yet lest we be accused of too rosy a picture and too much of a gloss on events we need to acknowledge the challenges as well democracies that embody self-interested political classes corruption and little policy innovation intractable and rising inequalities across democracies deteriorating democratic practice and constrained space countries such as Zambia and Burundi, Mali South Africa, Uganda consolidated consolidated electoral authoritarianism in Rwanda and Uganda Ethiopia, Togo, Congo and Angola to name a few and an expanded repertoire of control in strong presidential systems constraints on the internet and social media limits on assembly factionalism of opposition persecution of selected opponents gifts and inducements for elite cooperation and mechanisms that we value as part of a democratic governance or a democratic system such as transparency and better elections may in fact not boost democratic outcomes transparency is not always tied to accountability elections may be navigated in strategies of control I'm skipping over the examples so that I can conclude by just saying that as we'll discuss in the conversation the central challenges for international partnerships today in Africa continue to be the preservation of core democratic practices the development of key institutions that are critical to democracy and these may shift and vary across countries and the defense of countervailing forces notably civic civic groups and civic activism and the media and continued engagement on political reform with countries that we see are not moving in the direction that we would all wish so I'll conclude there great thank you Peter let me turn to Moletsi for his presentation thank you very much Mr Chairman first I wanted to thank the US District of Peace for convening this important discussion on how to advance the common interest between Africa and the United States as a South African I was involved in working very closely with the United States over the many years with the common agenda of fighting apartheid and we had a struggle culminated in the Comprehensive Anti-Apartheid Act which was passed by the US Congress in 1986 now this took many years to get us there but soon after this law was passed by Congress over President Reagan's veto the apartheid regime in South Africa opened discussions with Nelson Mandela so the question of common interest between us the Africans identifying what really are common interests which have to be solved by which party is very very critical as I point out it took us many years for us in the United States to arrive at a common understanding of how to fight a party we had a number of prongs one of which was a military one which the United States said it was not going to get involved in and eventually we persuaded the United States and it was persuaded also by its citizens to support sanctions now so to me this is a very important illustration of defining a common interest because not everything is a common interest not every sphere of problem in Africa is space for the United States to get involved in many of the problems in Africa we have to solve them ourselves as African citizens not the Americans to solve these problems for us in Africa now when I look at today what is the single most important common area between us and the United States that we have to work together it is very clearly the issue of the industrialization of Africa I know I will comment on this there is lots of discussion about democracy in Africa frankly this is a matter for the Africans the common issue between us and the United States is how to industrialize the continent of Africa there is a program which was set up by Obama which he referred to earlier in the last panel about the youth the young African leadership initiative this is a program that in my view we need to revisit jointly between us and the Americans to focus this program on the development of the world we need to promote entrepreneurship you cannot even have industrialization without so we need the support of the United States the United States is the most innovative society in the world today we need to work with the United States on how to promote entrepreneurship how to promote innovation to work on now. Of course, I understand that the name Obama is a red rag to the bull, to the current administration. So I am sure we can live with this together amongst ourselves. But this is a common interest that we share. To me, it is a primary common interest that we share with the United States that we have to pursue with vigor. And if we overcome the underdevelopment that is so pervasive in Africa, my own country, we have nearly 50% unemployment in the youth between 15 and 24. And there's no other way of solving this unemployment without industrialization of Africa. So I think this is a priority that we, to me, we have to focus on in the United States has many, many tools that we, the Africans, can learn from on how to advance the industrialization of Africa. Now, if I move to the issue of democracy, I was given one of the topics which Peter, I think, tried to address. Is democracy really retrenching in Africa? Well, when I look at democracy from what I have studied of United States history, there was an article recently in Foreign Affairs which asked, when did the United States really become a democratic country? I was very interested in this article in Foreign Affairs because the author argued that really it was only after the passing of the Voting Rights Act. So the question of the United States being a world leader with loss of experience in democracy is being debated by an American author. So the other interesting article I've seen about study, let me say, was a famous study by a Frenchman, which was published in 1835, a man called De Tocqueville, who wrote a very big book called Democracy in America. And I read this book in the Library of Congress many years ago when I was doing research for my postgraduate. And the question I always asked myself, reading De Tocqueville, was, OK, now you had slavery in the United States. And you are saying that this is a model for the Europeans to adopt the American model of democracy. To me, this didn't make sense. But this is one of the models of democracy, which is De Tocqueville's model of democracy, which he shared, incidentally, with the inventors, if that's correct, of democracy, which are the ancient Greeks. The ancient Greeks thought their societies were democratic, not withstanding slavery. That was it. So what really is democracy? And this is, in my view, democracy is something of a moving feast, or of a movable feast. And this is why the citizens of each country have to define their own democracy. I, as a South African, I cannot go to the Zimbabweans and say, my democracy in South Africa is the democracy you should have in Zimbabwean. These Zimbabweans have to define their own democracy. The question of human rights is a different matter from democracy per se. So I think this is one of the issues. But when all is said and done, I think the issue of democracy and democratization in Africa is a matter for the citizens of Africa and the citizens of the individual countries. It is not a matter, not even of other African countries. It's a matter for those individual countries, other than in the specific instances where Africans have agreed amongst themselves in the African Union, or before then in the organization of African unity, as to how to handle democracy or suppression of human rights, which is more important. That is happening in civil wars, ethnic cleansing, all those issues which happen in Africa, genocide, how we the Africans should handle. But those are extreme case or occurrences. When I look at why it is so important for me to underline that the issue of how you fight for democracy must be for the citizens of this country, one of the instances that we saw in 1991 was the annuling of the elections in Algeria, which were being won by the Islamic Salvation Front. This is what happens when you get other people involved in your democratic processes. The Islamic Salvation Front was a popular party, mainly set up by young people, many of them unemployed graduates, which won an open election. This election was annulled by the military with the support of France, and I understand with the concurrence of the United States. Now you can't call that retrenchment of democracy when elections are annulled. Secondly, there was another similar occurrence in 2013 where the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt had won an election and had an elected government, and the military overthrew the elected government. And General LCC then took off his military uniform and bought himself a business suit and then set up an election to his own liking and then declared himself president, elected democratic president of Egypt. So to me, this is why it is very important that the issues of democracy must be addressed by the people in those countries, how they fight against it. They may ask outsiders if they think they need it, but primarily they have to fight for democracy in their own countries. Now when I look at this, a point has been made already by the previous speaker about the LCC-type regimes and the Bouteflika-type regimes that we have in Africa. And we have many, many of these. I can recall, just briefly, Robert Mugabe is another one of those, PM Guruziza in Burundi, Joseph Kabila in the Congo, Bagbo in Ivory Coast, King Musaati III in Swaziland. The list is long and long. The late Meles Zanaoui, Paul Kagame, Isaias in Eritrea. So we have a lot of these regimes in Africa which authoritarian regimes, but it is for the people in those countries. It's not for me to dictate to the Rwandans whether what form of governance they have today. Lastly, let me say what governance norms or trends are currently predominant in Africa. This is one of the questions that we were asked to answer. I do not really think there is a predominant norm or trend in terms of governance in Africa. As a continent, Africa has, if I am correct, 54 countries. And these countries are hugely, hugely different and are becoming more and more different. The African countries of the 1950s and of the 1960s at the end of the colonial era are not the African countries of today. There's vast differences amongst themselves. So I think we have to be very cautious in making generalizations on the type of governance that we are on whether there are particular norms of governance in Africa. In conclusion, ladies and gentlemen, I'll conclude by where I started, which is that for me, the priority area of cooperation with the United States is for the industrialization of Africa. And that's where we need your expertise. We have the money, ironically, in Africa, but we don't have the skills. Huge amount of money is flowing out of Africa from pension funds, from all sorts of things which are going out of Africa. So it's not a question of money. It's not a question of capital. But we need the skills, the design of the economic management systems, and all the things that will promote entrepreneurship and that will promote the industrialization. And many of the problems that you see in Africa today, if we succeed on industrializing the continent, we'll go away if we succeed on that agenda. I thank you very much. Thank you so much. Let's turn to Ambassador Yamamoto. Before I kind of start into the things that they prepared for me at the bureau, I wanted to just say that as I look out into the audience, I just cannot feel but great humility of all my mentors, Ambassador Moose and Johnny Carson and Linda. And my goodness, it's like even coming here, I feel very inadequate. And of course, Nancy, we're together. And my old classmate from the War College, General Woltholzer. But let me just take a couple of minutes just to talk about the United States side and what we're doing to prepare for really these new challenges for the next four years. And how we're preparing. And to kind of really kind of reaffirm and to encourage you that things are going well in a good direction. Coming back to the department, I feel like the replacement's coming in. But I'm very humbled that I was asked to come back. I was at National Defense University teaching our future leaders, not only in the interagency but also in the military. And looking at General McMaster's at the National Security Council, he swiped seven of our top rated strategic thinkers from the university. But also some of our really great thinkers coming out of West Point and the other academies and also from civilian universities. And so I feel very good about that. But one thing that is very interesting is, as I go to the NSC meetings, is that it's a very focused. It's very based on getting a very core group who are going to talk about it. But more important is, looking at my other colleagues from the other region, as I feel sorry for them because some of them have not gone to NDU, so they don't have the lingo. But more important is, on the Africa side, I was amazed at how collegial we are. But more important is that we know each other and that we're able to work with each other. And the expertise is just remarkable. And we're all blessed to have General Waldhozer at our side to help us on the military side. But just on AID, OSD, the CIA, the NSC, we've all worked together for years and years. And so we know exactly what it is that has come before, what we need to achieve now, and to move forward on. The other thing, too, that is really striking and remarkable is that what we're looking at on Africa is not to take Africa in isolation, but to see how it is in the context of other issues globally and also the trend lines. And so when we talk about Africa, we're going to talk about all the issues that are confronting the United States and also the world. And I want to say that what we're looking at on Africa is, yes, we're going to take some new initiatives, but what we want to do is we want to do an affirmation of what has been done before. We want to do expansion on areas which have been highly successful and which are critical to our national strategic interests, but also to the future of Africa. And then also to focus on things that we can make a difference. And so let me kind of go into a couple of things. The fundamental issue is that we need strong institutions and not leaders who are dictators or strong leaders, but we need strong institutions. Those are the fundamental issues that we're going to be looking and focused on. And then we're going to look at how can the programs that we've worked on, how can we expand on those? I heard Bill Gates today give a interview, and he said, you can't look at Africa and see all the good things in a 10-second soundbite. And a lot of things are kind of bad things kind of go up to the front, and that's very noteworthy. But just following up on Bill Gates's point, if you take a Kodak picture of Africa today, you can see a lot of challenges. But if you see it over 20 years, you can see the dramatic differences in transformation that has occurred, as our colleagues have said. And so the question comes is, how do we build on those good transformational issues? And how do we expand and build and make a difference? And so one of the things just following up on Ambassador, our undersecretary speech today, is to look at, we have our four pillars, but they're not in isolation, and also that they're much more expansive and evolving. So we have the counterterrorism, we have conflict resolution, economic development, and governance, but that they're interchangeable and that they're mutually supportive. So let me give you some of the examples that we're looking at right now in Africa. First is on Liberia, and really at the fundamental crossroads of democratic elections. From two civil wars, you're going into two democratic elections and now going to a third democratic election. And you're seeing a president, Johnson Sirleaf, who has a body by the Constitution to step down. And that becomes a model for other leaders across the continent. We looked at democratic countries as the trend lines are shown from just a few to even almost two dozen. And that in the State Department and the military, that has very tremendous impact. I did a data dumping for our meeting at the National Security Council. And we were looking at all the evacuations we've done over the last, you know, since the 60s. And we're looking at some like 18 to 19 evacuations of somewhere that are embassies. We have 278 embassies and conflicts around the world. And a lot of them were in Africa. But if you look at today, those trend lines, they're very different. They're shifting. It's not just countries that are in crises and turmoil. And that Africa looks, in that context, as a continent that's on the move, that's transforming, that's developing, and that's progressing. Going into Liberia, when I was there in Liberia with John Blaney, and we're looking at the transition from Charles Taylor, there's no electricity. Everything was generators. And we said, no thing on Gosgroin Earth could we really overnight start doing electrification power planning. And the MCC, and a $257 million compact agreement was Liberia, now it's producing electricity. The other issue, too, is that we're looking at a population, 50% youth, and that they're looking at what is it for them for their future. And then we're looking throughout Africa and the trend lines on Africa. In some ways, it reminds us of the State Department, how young our diplomats are, and how much oversight and mentoring is required. But if we look at 2050 as we look at the trend lines, we have Africa will be the most populous content. Nigeria will be the third most populous country. And the issue is, what is it that we're going to do and need to do to address the needs of a youth that's going to probably be 70% of that continent? How is it that we're going to meet not only economic needs but development needs, job needs, et cetera? So we're heading towards mega cities across the globe. And one of the things that we've debated at the National Defense University is you don't want to create mega-poverty zones either. You want to have opportunities. And one of the things that the Under Secretary articulated was that we're going to look at trade investment, and we're going to look at economic opportunities. In the context of how that promotes and supports democracy and good governance issues, we look at Ethiopia, which Bill Gates had highlighted has making dramatic changes in the ability to feed themselves. But more important is the efforts that AID has done to really expand trade opportunities. I remember talking to Prime Minister Mellis after he bought several billion dollars of Boeing 787s. He said, Don, I just preserved 35,000 jobs in America and your country. What did you do for us? And I said, well, we're going to work on that. And in the end, we helped create over 100,000 jobs in Ethiopia. So that was our payback. And that's what I think a lot of the leaders have asked us to do. The other issue, too, is Kenya. Kenya is probably in the threshold of a great election on October 17. But it's issues that we need to focus on and work with and just talking to over the weekend with the leadership on both sides, saying both the government and the opposition is that the eyes of the world and of this government is on you on Kenya. We're not going to get our eyes away from it. That Kenya matters if our largest embassy is in Nairobi, Kenya. That means we have a stake in that country. And Africa has a stake. And this government is looking at how the trend lines are going to happen after October 17. Some of the other issues that we're looking at is AWEP. And one of the things that I noticed from everywhere I've been to, from Somalia to Afghanistan, is girls' education and women entrepreneurs as really a fundamental program that we need to develop and expand as helping communities and helping societies. The other one is that we're doing is the YALI program, Power Africa, and also a number of other programs and projects that will continue to focus, highlight, affirm, expand, and in many areas focus. But if there's one message to convey to you is that the people doing Africa today, we know each other. We're doing the best we can. But more important is that we're listening and that however you can mentor us and guide us, we will listen very carefully. And so thank you very much. Great. Thank you, Ambassador. We have about a half an hour left, so we will open it up to questions. We'll probably take one or two at a time. So if you just raise your hand and we'll have someone come by with a mic. I see in the back there, maybe we'll take it in quadrant. So why don't we do the back and then the gentlemen right there for the first two. Well, thank you very much for holding this event. My name is Ni Akwete. I work here in Washington looking at US-Africa relations. My question is for Mr. Mbeki. Excellency, I spent more than a decade in the anti-apartheid movement here. And of course, I got to meet Mr. Mandela the first day he got to Washington. And I agree with you about industrialization and economic growth being needed in the continent. But what startled me is your point that democracy should be left for the citizens of each African country. It brought back to me memories of what the apartheid defenders were saying, that the US should stay out of it, that other African countries should stay out of it. It seems to me that the fight over apartheid was a fight for democracy. So if at that time international involvement was important, could you please explain and clarify for me why now democracy should be left to individual countries when we have countries like Rwanda and Uganda and as you mentioned Egypt. If we leave it to those citizens, what would they be able to do? I hope my question is clear. Thank you very much. Thank you and let's do a gentleman right there also ask what we ask him as well. Hi, my name is James Carlson. I work at the Office of Naval Intelligence and one of the things I'm looking at speaks to the last two speakers. There's something called the cascade effect occurring in the maritime shipping industry. Not sure if you two are aware of it, but what's happening is that the shipping industry is creating larger and larger ships. What that has done is changed the model of shipping routes from what used to be called milk runs up and down the African coast from small ports like Duala to a hub and spoke model similar to what we do with airlines to where they're trans shipment hubs. Right now there's only really two in Africa, one of them being Durban. You mentioned industrialization is important and I concur and that's something that I do agree that the US can do something about and I do agree as well that democratization should be left in the hands of Africa. Does the United States have a plan in place or are we looking to know which countries to focus on? Because when you pick winners and losers you're gonna make enemies and friends. Mombasa versus Dar es Salaam is probably the best example. Which of the two countries do we support in their economic development? Because for example, they need to increase the number of gantry cranes they have to move containers. They need to dredge the channels, they need to lengthen the terminals. All these things cost hundreds of millions of dollars but they impact the lives of millions, tens of millions really in the region. And so I was just curious if you two could talk to that from a democratization standpoint, do you think that Africans can economically integrate at the same time so that customs unions, not just free trade zones can develop so that the economic benefits of international intermodal shipping can be shared? And then for Ambassador Yamamoto, do we have a plan in place? Thank you, let's do one more question before we turn back to the panel. Yes, please. Thank you very much. My name is Mukawasi Hall, I'm a writer. I'm also a documentary center trainer in culture and current affairs in Africa. One question I have, it's for any of the gentlemen, is about the youth. When you look at Africa through a keyhole, the one thing you see we all agreed on is a lot of youth. And if you're asking what America's interest in or common interests with African countries in, I would think that the first thing you want to look at in the next five to 10 years would be resources, human resources as opposed to the resources in the ground. When you have multinational country, multinational corporations in America going to invest in Africa, what is more important right now, I think we'll be looking at how much they engage the youth because that is where the wealth is in right now. Now my question is, what are the kind of things that America is ready to do to engage the youth so that they are actually the resource that Americans are interested in? Yali is not enough. It is small, but it's good, but it's engaging a very small percentage of African youth. So what are the programs that you are ready to invest in? One of the suggestions I'd say is really have a permanent position for African youth. Every African country should have a diplomatic seat in the US directly linked to Congress so that it's not a one-off all the time where African voices are heard just once and they go. So that's one of the ways. Thank you. Thank you so much. Panelists, I'd like to take a stab at some of those questions. Don, you want to go first? Let's see. Oh, here. Okay, well, let me tell you, they are in the world extraordinary circumstances, like, for example, the Second World War. The Second World War needed the whole world to unite to defeat the Nazis and Japan and Italy. So a massive coalition was created. That coalition did not have the license to decide on which party should rule Britain, for example. Winston Churchill was very close and worked very close with the Americans in fighting the Nazis. But soon after the end of the war, the British people voted against Churchill and put in the Labour Party, which in American eyes, there was frowned upon as a socialist left-wing party. So the point I'm making is the fact that we needed the world to support it, to defeat a party doesn't mean the world had to dictate to us or should dictate to us or even wants to dictate to us on what kind of a regime we should have in South Africa. That is for the South African citizens to decide upon. So I think that, which doesn't mean, for example, we saw after the Second World War, the Marshall Plan. The Marshall Plan was not there to dictate to the Europeans what kind of society or what kind of regimes they should have. It was to help them reconstruct their economy. So there is a huge difference between explaining to the English that we will give you a Marshall Plan as long as you vote for the Labour Party and this type or that type of democracy. And the same applies to the African countries. We no longer have these extraordinary systems like the apartheid system, which overwhelmed over two or three centuries the people of South Africa. So they needed the support of the big wide world in order to defeat that system. Today, South Africans have to decide for themselves what kind of a democratic system they want. On the issue of the youth bulge, I think the youth bulge is both a threat and an asset. But if we don't industrialize our economies, the youth bulge is going to be a mega threat to Africa, mega threat to the stability of Africa. So the question of the industrialization of the continent, in my view, is the only way we can address many of these problems that we have on the African continent. And most importantly, as I said, we need America's insights. We need the United States' expertise and so on. But actually, the African countries have a lot of money. South Africa, it's been calculated that last year or sometime early this year that the corporate sector in South Africa is sitting on 600 billion rents of cash. They are not investing this because of a whole lot of internal problems of business uncertainty, lack of confidence, and so on. Nobody can solve that problem for us. We have to solve that problem ourselves. Just a couple of things. I don't think you want bureaucrats and diplomats making economic decisions for countries. But you know, after the tragic attack on the USS Cole and Dubai World and Sheikh Mohammed of Dubai came in and with the Djiboutian President, Gillay really created a deep water port that handles 80,000 ton cargo ships. So those are decisions that the countries themselves made with the help of other. I know that Qatar is there, UAE, Turkey. Where the United States has played a significant role will be power Africa and creating other economic opportunities. The other area too is looking at expanding our OPIC on risk insurance to encourage American companies to engage. Those are areas that we can do. The other thing too is that we are working very closely with not only our European colleagues, but also our African partners to identify areas that we can have a significant, make a difference in helping them achieve their needs and goals. And I think power Africa goes to a $54 billion initial investment commitment. AIDs program on the trade hubs. Those are starts and those are things that we can build on. So I think that's beyond going to those areas. I think we will be open-eared and look at all opportunities where we can play it and make a difference. Comments? Yeah, on the question of domestic foundations for democracy versus international influences, virtually every other region in the world has adopted some degree of norms about governance in their regional institutions and their regional discourse. Certainly, the Organization of American States has an ironclad prohibition of recognizing coups in the contemporary era. And that extends to places like Venezuela, where in 2002, other heads of state in Latin America went on the record with The New York Times saying that the attempted coup in Venezuela should be reversed and vetoed and suppressed by the regional organization, even though I think that Chavez is a jerk. I mean, you can find this in the open record. So other heads of state could make clear distinctions between another leadership and the way they were governing and the principle of democracy. South Africa, Nigeria, Senegal have signed on to the peer review mechanism and global and continental norms of governance. And we know that in every country, regardless of whether it's an authoritarian regime, certainly among democracies, no two are alike, the electoral systems differ, the party systems differ, the political culture differs, varies. And people have different views toward discourse, criticism, debate, polarization, consensus, and so forth. So for a country with as many forms of engagement as the United States, there are choices to be made about human rights, about political rights, and political stability in the various countries with which we have relationships. If the government is shooting down protesters, are we neutral on that? Or do we want to speak up if there's a strong movement against corruption and there is very visible corruption at the top? Again, is that a purely internal matter or do we want to show common cause or sympathy for those who are making a campaign? So it would hardly be possible for the United States to be neutral or disengaged from these things. And we have deep and diverse relationships with people in most countries across the region because of our own history. So when we're engaged with young people who are pressing for better governance, pressing for more public goods, pressing for jobs, and for human rights, do we disengage and say, look, you guys will all figure it out. It's really not our business. Or do we choose ways of engaging that are in line with our values? In terms of dictating a common model of democracy, I think there's no sentiment for that and there's no justification for it. In terms of thinking about how to be partners and how to engage in line with our values and our history, I think it's complicated. But I think that's where we should be. And in terms of the youth bulge and the question of youth, I will just say that I spend most of my time in Nigeria. And whenever I am back, which is multiple times a year and something interesting is happening, it's youth that are leading the way. Whether it's the emerging burgeoning service sector in entertainment and information and communication technologies or startup enterprises or new social movements or movements for ethnic assertion, identity, and equality, youth are really at the forefront of these things. And you can always look to the more senior generation to have a conversation about policy and about history. But I think that there's a lot of space and a lot of opportunity for us to be engaging more with younger people who are really at the innovative forefront. Great, thank you. Let's do another round of questions. OK, Tony, I saw a man right there and then at the very top for the first three questions I have hands, I saw pop up. Hi, Tony Carroll. I'm a colleague of Peter's at SICE and also Vice President Manchester Trade. Mr. and Becky, famously about seven years ago, you said that China's interest in Africa is fueled by its need for commodities to build this industrial base. Africa needs to take advantage of that interest in China's interest in Africa to get more out of that relationship. Here we are seven or eight years later. I think you said that that appetite would probably start to wind down by about 2023. Well, if you look at some of the recent commodity trends that's starting to wind down even earlier than that, do you think that there's been a successful engagement with China to get, shall we say, more investment into Africa and more job creation, more job growth that you talk about as being needed? And then just as a comment, I think capital is a coward, as we've all heard. Innovative capital that you think is desperately needed from this country is going to flow into those countries and markets that are more open, where you have labor flexibility, where you have media access, where you can get good, reliable banking. And those are, I think, prerequisites, really, to attract the type of innovative investment that you call for. And therefore, I think we can't sit on the sideline and not at least support some of those institutions that are going to attract the type of capital that you think is needed to grow the African economies as you wish. Deirdre Lepin, Africana Studies, University of Pennsylvania. My question has to do with both youth and also economic development. The deficit in infrastructure and services in Africa is well known. At the same time, we've also talked about the large number of youth who are very well educated in many cases and who also have a yearning for the development of their own countries, as well as for economic opportunities for themselves. Now, the US has had some excellent experiences in the past in putting the energy and intelligence of youth together with the needs of development. We did this back in the 1930s during the Depression. Have we continued similar programs since that time? What does not offer a model if the US could support African countries in creating youth works programs? Now, this is a public sector approach, but it could also be a nudge to the industrialization and the engagement of creating more jobs for young people in Africa. It would seem that this could be a US program that could offer some specialized experience to Africa and also help to resolve the issue of the youth bulge and youth employment. There was a gentleman towards the back who had a question. Hi, I'm Greg Pirio. I'm with EC Associates. I want to give kudos to the US government on something. Its support for public health in Africa has made a huge difference in the lives of millions of people. I'll give some, and this fits in with industrialization. You're not going to have industrialization without a healthy work force. The Presidential Malaria Initiative, for example, has really reduced malaria. We have to understand that 25% of the wealth of an African family typically is lost because of malaria. I've talked with African businessmen. I have a friend in Uganda. He is a very prominent businessman. He said previously he used to have 20 workers out at a time with malaria. Now he has zero. And this goes on and on and on. So when we're talking about investment, we're talking about development, the health of people is a cornerstone for all of us. And it has one further consequence. In taking responsibility for their health, people leave behind fatalism. And they assume responsibility at a level that is really incredible. And I've seen this in so many countries. So I want to urge that this be continued with this administration. And I know we probably have sympathetic ears at the State Department of that. But it's really very important. And one final note is for the youth bulge, we have to look in partnership with Africans in dialogue to increase family planning. Because it's unsustainable, the growth in population, given the rates of industrialization, et cetera. And Indonesia is a great example where this occurred with US support. And today, there are 200 million less Indonesians because of the programs that we work together with in Indonesia. Anyway, I know it's not a question, but I wanted to put it into the discussion. Thank you so much. So I'm going to ask our panelists to try to answer these questions, perhaps through the lens of governance and democracy, which is the topic of this panel. I'm glad that there's a lot of audience for next panel. But if we can talk some of these issues through that lens, I think that would be fantastic. Who wants to go first? Let's see, do you want to try it again? I think you started this with the industrialization point. Yes. Let me just deal with the issue of China. Last year, South Africa exported 60 million tons of iron ore to China. In the same year, the African continent imported 30 million tons of steel from the rest of the world, 9 million tons of which coming from China. Now, when I saw this information, I went to the president of South Africa, and I said to him, this is not the right way to use our resources. Irrespective of what the Chinese think, this is not the right way to use our natural resources. So I said to him, we should set up a steel company which has African investors from all over the African continent, and we tackle the issue of the 30 million tons of steel that we are importing from the rest of the world. It's not just China. It's the Russia. It's the European Union. We're importing steel. For example, there's a railway line built last year from Mombasa to Nairobi. All that steel is imported from China. There was a railway line built from Djibouti to Addis Ababa. All that steel is imported from China. So the question of the Africans addressing their issues of industrialization is very, very central. We will probably come up to the United States to look for partners to build the steel company. Because it's not a government company that we are going to be building. It will be a private steel company. So the Chinese, incidentally, have made it very clear. I had a meeting with the Chinese in Beijing when I raised this. They said they will participate in an African steel company, because they don't want to be left out. So that is what I mean, that we have this problem, the problem of industrialization. We need support with putting together an industrialization. So our old friends, like the United States, we need help from them on those issues. The point of public health is, I agree completely, you have to address public health issues. President George W. Bush started a huge HIV AIDS program in South Africa. And this program is still going on. And it has had a huge impact on the health of the population. So I'm not recommending we build a wall around Africa where nobody else participates. And we know what cooperation with the United States has produced, for example, in the issues of public health, in the problems of apartheid, and so on, and so forth. Thank you. I'm going to turn to Ambassador Yamamoto and then Peter with the final remarks. I'm going to the base for this meeting today, is the greatest impediment, just not in Africa but anywhere, is going to be the absence of good leadership, good governance, and the rule of law. Once you have those in place and the respect for democratic values, and not specific or hyphenated democratic values, but core values of democracy, then you can talk about the context of what we're talking about, health, development, economic. And all of it is clearly interrelated and mutually supportive. And so once that is in place, then you can have it. So I mean, if China is also going to support the democratic values, that's great. I don't think so. They want money. But that's important. And you can't have one without the other. And that's, I think, one of the issues that we're looking at is, how do all these issues interrelate, interconnect? And so that's why we're looking. Africa is not an isolation, but Africa in the context of what's happening around the world. What happens in Africa affects everyone. What happens outside of affects Africa as well. Thank you. Peter? Yeah, it's interesting that the discourse rapidly shifted to democracy, which I can agree to a large extent, is the critical challenge before the continent today. To think that democracy, pardon me, that development is unrelated to the quality of governance, of course, is not a proposition that anybody in this room would accept. There are various forms of governance across the continent. We see industrialization and some incipient structural change being attempted in Ethiopia and in Rwanda under non-democratic auspices, although many other dictatorships or autocratic regimes in Africa have much worse outcomes than those two countries. And we see some positive changes under democratic auspices, but also many countries that are struggling and that are experiencing stagnation and are not really moving forward in the ways that we would like. So clearly governance is one dimension here. And then democratic governance is another dimension. And whether or not the United States is involved, people are protesting. People are pressing for connectivity and for voice and for jobs. Elections are occurring. Different opposition voices are contending over the future of their countries. And so that does present a challenge for the United States about how we're going to engage. Seems to me does not necessarily mean and has never meant that we, in some kind of monotonic way, try to impose or urge one uniform type of government. But it does create challenges in terms of thinking about how to advance democratic values, democratic pressures, or to meet democratic claims and demands in various countries, and to link that with the essential welfare and development of many countries across the region. OK. Please join me with a round of applause for our panelists. Judd and your panelists, thanks very, very much for a lively discussion on governance and democratic institutions. I'm going to now invite our next panel to come forward. We are going to continue to move along. We have one more panel before we have lunch. Our next panel will focus on prospects for enhanced economic partnership. I want to remind everyone that following this panel, we will move to move outside where we will have lunch and where we will hear a keynote address from General Waldheiser, the commander of AFRICOM. He will be our luncheon speaker immediately after this panel. And at that session, we will have box lunches. There will be a certain number of individuals who will have indicators marked for their tables. I think you know who they are. Otherwise, there will be free seating. I'm going to turn this over. Our next panel is going to be cheered by Jennifer. I'm going to do it looking down by Dr. Jennifer Cook from the Center for Strategic and International Studies. And she will introduce her panelists. Again, it's on prospects for enhanced economic partnerships. Jennifer? Great. Thank you so much, Johnny. And thank you to the organizers of the conference. Really great discussions so far. We're talking about prospects for enhanced US-Africa economic partnerships today. This has been a hot topic in recent years. There's been a great deal of optimism, I would say euphoria even, on the Africa rising narrative, rising economies spurred by high commodity prices, by Chinese investment, by new technologies, new sectors opening up. And new attention from global partners. With the fall of commodity prices in China restructuring its economy, that euphoria has been tempered somewhat. But the opportunities are certainly there. They're there, but they won't materialize in a vacuum. And I think that came up very much in the first conversation panel. These opportunities to be maximized, I think both sides, both Africans and the United States, are going to have to work a lot harder. Look at Africa today. The big three economies, Nigeria, Angola, South Africa. All three, Nigeria is just emerging from a recession. Angola and South Africa are kind of bumbling along at a fairly low growth rate. Certainly not enough to keep up with demographic growth. Some of the promising economies in East Africa. Ethiopia has just ended a year-long state of emergency that was aimed at kind of quashing internal dissent. Kenya is about to go into political uncertainty, having to rerun its entire presidential election process. Tanzania, we've seen a significant curtailing of civil liberties, media, opposition protest. A leader of the opposition was just gunned down this past week. You've seen nationalization of diamond mines. So even Tanzania, which has been long held up as kind of this promising target for investment, for development, and democracy, you've seen some real problems in recent years. Corruption, state capture, massive outflow of illicit funds, those remain major challenges that are styming the potential of African economies. So African leaders and citizens are going to have to take some hard looks at themselves to remain competitive, to undertake some of the very difficult and politically difficult reforms to make these opportunities work. And then on the US side, the US is going to need to work a lot harder. There's a lot more competition out there. China is a big one, but the European Union is getting very strategic and economic partnership agreements that aren't always favorable to US investors. India, Russia, Malaysia, South Africa, these are all looking strategically at the continent, thinking ahead longer term than sometimes the United States does. US needs to support US businesses. The US government needs to support US businesses through information, through institutions like OPIC and XM, which is so important. They're under kind of political scrutiny, but they're functioning well below what their potential capacity could be. And they're designed exactly to help US businesses succeed in going into these new kinds of markets. Commercial diplomacy, you look at a Chinese embassy or a European embassy, a lot of their staff, a lot of their mission is there to do commercial diplomacy, to help their national companies navigate what are often difficult circumstances and tricky regulatory structures to make good on the opportunities in Africa. The US can do a lot more to be supporting the voices for reform in Africa to take on those difficult reforms, diversification, helping constituencies for reform. It doesn't need to dictate the kinds of reform, but it can support those voices for reform. And in international norms, on transparency, on tax havens, on kind of some of the dubious shell company transactions that really are robbing many African economies. And finally, and again, this came up in the first conversation, the issue of relationships. And getting business done in Africa requires relationships. Disengagement from Africa, whether it's at the most senior levels of the US government, to the mid-levels, to kind of the much lower levels within government, they have costs. I was very disappointed to see that the US Africa Energy Summit that was scheduled for this month has been canceled because African participants were not able to get their visas in time. Similarly, a trade conference last May, March at the University of Southern California, was canceled, or it was held, but there were no African participants in it. Students' visas, which have dropped precipitously, matter, bringing young people to US universities. They will become champions. They will enrich the universities in terms of technology, in terms of innovation, in terms of new perspectives. But they also become ambassadors for the United States. And those kind of relationships create the kind of foundation for partnerships longer term. So I feel strongly about this. I'm sorry to talk a bit length in an introduction. We have a terrific panel to go into some of this. First, we have Kingsley Mogalu, who was a late addition to the panel. We're so delighted to have him. He is really one of the foremost opinion leaders and analysts on economic dynamics on the continent. He's founder of the Institute for Governance and Economic Transformation, a think tank focused on effective public policy and inclusive growth. He's a political economist and a lawyer by training formally with the UN, formally with the Fletcher Business School. So Kingsley, welcome. Next, we have Oran Waiji Shah, acting senior deputy assistant administrator for Africa at USAID, and coordinator of the Trade Africa program. Was, OK, yes, with a long career in the private sector, in finance, and in the nonprofit sector. And then finally, Andre Pinar, who's founder and chair of C5 Capital, a South African lawyer by training, a founder of G3, an entrepreneur and investor with a long background in international business intelligence and strategic advice. I think we'll start with Kingsley to perhaps look forward at some of the big opportunities and challenges of these partnerships. We'll turn to Oran to talk about what the US has done and what it is doing and what is it planning to do in this arena. And finally, we'll turn to Andre, who is looking well forward into the cloud for some of the new emergent sectors that maybe are not happening right now, but are certainly on the horizon. So Kingsley, we'll turn to you, and thank you. Thank you. Thank you, Jennifer. I'd like to thank US Institute of Peace for inviting me and for organizing this very splendid event. I'd also like to thank my brother, Molletsim Beke, for being a very effective member of this panel. And in return, I might be tempted to become a member of his. But the issues are all interlinked. That's the point. And you really cannot discuss one without the other. You can't discuss the economic framework without the governance and political framework and so on. But let me just give my sense of where the economic landscape is that forms a backdrop for US-Africa economic partnerships. You've heard the phrase a lot, Africa rising. And I think Jennifer mentioned it. I don't believe Africa is rising. I believe Africa is emerging. I think that's a correct statement to make. When you talk about a rising continent, you're talking about rising Asia. You're talking about China. You're talking about economic transformation that is taking place with industrialization, as Molletsim so correctly said. But can we rise? Of course we can. And so the question, I think, we should be discussing in the context of partnership discussions is how can those partnerships make an economic rise for Africa possible and even probable? And how can it support transformations from within the continent? I think that's really what we should be discussing. Of course I have a lot to say about this. I won't go into all that. I have this book here, Emerging Africa, which I think anyone interested in the continent should read. I was told to plug it shimlessly. And I told the person who advised me that I wouldn't disappoint. But I think what is happening in Africa today? We can see very clearly that commodity-based economic growth is going down. The countries in Africa that have done very well in the past two years are the countries that actually do not rely on commodities. And so this is the foundational core of what should be an African world view of economic engagement with the rest of the world, that its massive mineral wealth does not guarantee its prosperity, except it is turned to finished value-added products that are exported to the rest of the world with value and insight added to them. That's the basis on which every other continent has risen. Why would Africa rise on any other basis? I have to ask that question over and over again. So now, if you look at the basis of US engagement with Africa, it's mainly in two things. First of all, AGOA, as we all know, the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act, which is very good, I think a very good agreement, where you have duty-free access to the US for 6,400 products from sub-Saharan Africa coming from about 40 countries. But AGOA is often talked about, but it has a very fundamental problem. Number one is that roughly 70% to 80% of African exports to the US on the AGOA have been exports of crude oil. That's the number one problem with AGOA. And so you have to ask whether then the partnership, which is founded largely on AGOA, is serving the function of promoting economic transformation or mutually beneficial relationships, or if it's serving one part of the partnership mainly and another part of the partnership only superficially. So I think that's a very important point. And you will notice that AGOA exports to Africa have dropped over 50% since 2011, since the US became much more active in its own oil production. So that's an important problem concerning AGOA. Now, AGOA has also stimulated a lot of foreign investment in Africa. You'll find companies like GAAP, like Target, like Old Navy, they're taking advantage of these opportunities to source goods from Africa. And that's a good thing. But again, the structural weakness, I think we find in AGOA, it underlines the challenge that African countries face with global trade and with foreign investment. And that is that in both areas, you find that the trade and the foreign investment are not allowing the development of economic complexity and value-added products from Africa. That's the whole problem. When you invest as a foreigner, what are you looking for? You're not an NGO. You're looking to make money. You're looking to make a profit. So for Africa, in having partnerships with advanced countries, they should be looking out a little bit more for their own interests. But the problem is they don't do this enough. Foreign investment helps economic development when you have skills, when you have skilled labor in a country, when you have infrastructure in a country. If you don't have these two things, what's called foreign investment is mostly economic extraction that's going on. That's called foreign investment. So I think this is, you have to address this side of the partnership, Africa. And that's the policy question for African leaders. The problem we have in Africa with this whole proposition is that a lot of African leaders, with some exceptions, are profoundly economically incompetent. I'm sorry to say, but that's just the truth of the matter. You talked about South Africa, you talked about Nigeria. Nigeria has gone through the worst economic recession in 25 years. It's supposed to be the biggest economy in Africa today, but how inclusive is the Nigerian economy? It's not inclusive at all. What's the GDP per capita? It's an average of $1,648 since 1960. So why should I, as an informed Nigerian, or as an informed African, beat my chest that Nigeria is Africa's biggest economy? That's not some, because I can understand that in reality, there is 62% poverty. And that that's what really matters. It's not these statistics of economic growth. It's about GDP per capita, that's what matters. So when you're talking about foreign investment, when you're talking about economic partnerships, that's what we should be talking about. Now, so the first challenge for economic engagement between Africa and the rest of the world is how do you develop political leadership in African countries that gets it in terms of economic development and economic partnerships? In Rwanda, you have it, in Ethiopia, you have it, in Mauritius, you have it, even increasingly in Kenya, and in several countries in Mauritius. So they may be, their political systems may be controversial or contentious, but you cannot doubt the economic worldview of a Paul Kagame of Rwanda or a Meles Zenawi as a professor at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. One of my favorite reading assignments to my students is a very powerful essay written by Meles Zenawi on industrial policy. And he defended his position powerfully. It's not, industrial policy in economic orthodoxy, liberal economic orthodoxy is not very popular now, but he stood his ground and he made the point. So how do we make political leaders on the continent much more competent to provide economic leadership to support democracies in Africa and engage in mutually beneficial relationships with the United States and all the powers? And also with China. Someone talked about China. We find again, this lack of a worldview undermining Africa's global partnerships, not just with the United States, but with China as well. And so the question is, yes, you're having economic partnerships, but you've got to make sure that people are not eating your lunch. That's very important in my own mind as an African. Now, what are the, I just want to wrap up with the new vistas of opportunity, I think, that exist for Africa's economic partnerships with the United States? In the whole question of, it's not extraction, it can be turned away from extraction. Solid minerals, huge opportunities in a country like Nigeria. But if you want to invest in solid minerals, can you make sure that there's value added in the country of origin before it's exported? That would be a win-win economic partnership in my view. Power Africa, very important program. What's the goal to add 30,000 megawatts of electricity to African countries before 2030? I think that goal is not ambitious enough. That's what I think. I think it needs to be more ambitious and that's a very, very important opportunity. So Power Africa is a very important partnership for Africa and the United States and could potentially be far more transformational even than a gore if it's robustly executed. Infrastructure, there's a huge infrastructure deficit in African countries. So African American companies that want to invest in infrastructure on the basis of public private partnerships especially stand to gain huge gains in the continent. Again, education. There's a skills gap, a gap of skills and productive knowledge. So and this is what loops into foreign investment. So American investments in education would yield huge benefits for both sides. Investments that target the production or the training in skills. If you want to set up a Boeing plant, if you want to set up a Boeing plant in Nigeria today you can't because you don't have the skill sets to support it. So if you invest in education that produces the skill sets that supports the manufacture of the parts of Boeing airplanes, everybody's smiling. So these are the kinds of investments that I think we need to talk about and two final areas of possibility are the IT sector, the services sector and as well venture capital finance. This is a huge area of opportunity for investments in the continent because the cost of capital remains extremely high and the reason that is so is because of infrastructure problems. So if you can bring in capital cheaply to Africa you would stimulate a lot of production, small and medium enterprises, you will smile to the bank, lots of Africans would smile to the bank. Thank you. Great. Thank you so much, Kinsley. All right. Thank you. I too would like to thank the US Institute of Peace for convening this meeting. I think it's timely and certainly we at USAID are rethinking along with our partners at say our colleagues at state about how we can be more equipped, more efficient, more effective at dealing with some of the problems and issues that have been addressed here and raised here today. As the US government's international development and humanitarian assistance leader, our investments are being made to save lives, foster growth, inclusive economic growth, reduce poverty and strengthen democratic governance. I've just come from the first town hall meeting that aid had with its new administrator, Mark Green. And I will reiterate what he just said, that our assistance is a hand up. And we are all working at USAID and throughout the government toward the day when our partner countries will no longer need our assistance that the dynamic of our relationship will change. It will not just be giving development assistance but really being partnerships. And so that is what aid has been doing and certainly the dynamic, the nexus of how we go forward will be emerging as the redesign exercise and some of the other things go forward. I'd like to share a few statistics that my staff put together and probably everyone in this room knows it since you're all African followers. But between 2015 and 2030, 29 million new entrants have joined the African labor market. That is huge. That is enormous. That is almost a tsunami. Even for the United States, that it would be an enormous population to try to absorb. And by 2050, there will be 2 billion in Africa. And you compare that population of potential workers with the labor market and it becomes very clear that there is a disconnect between that population that is growing and the labor demand in Africa presently. If you look at Nigeria, the official unemployment rate is 12.1. The government itself recognizes an additional 19.1 are underemployed and specifically the young people, the situation is even worse. The youth unemployment stands at 42.2%. However, these statistics do not paint the whole picture. Good news is the continent of Africa is primed to be one of the great economic success stories of this century. How? Through investments in infrastructure and technology, the introduction of new technologies, being able to leapfrog some of our older technologies to go into the global economy more competitively. Africa is home to 700 companies with revenues over 500 million. So again, that industrialization is beginning, but certainly there is need for greater acceleration of it and the consumer spending is on track in Africa to climb to over $1 trillion over the next four years. That's a very attractive market for any company or set of companies and certainly for countries. So by 2050, it is possible that the continent will make up a quarter of the global economy. That's the potential, that's the hope. So what does it mean for the economy and business growth in Africa? Well, it means that it will have a fast growing middle class, but is that growing middle class going to be as inclusive as it needs to be for some of the issues that you have raised? There will be an expanding urban population. That's sort of a natural evolution of development. We experienced it here in the United States from being an agricultural country to being an urbanized. That will inevitably happen in Africa and is happening in Africa in various pace throughout the country, the continent, sorry. And there will be an enormous number of new young consumers who are watching MTV who want to be part of that world, that global world. So the private sector in Africa and is making a crucial input into the continent's economic development. Certainly more than a decade ago when I was in Abidjanar, when some of us were working in Africa. However, African countries, those governments are looking to private sector because we indeed have said private sector has the technology, it has the skill sets, but the African governments also are challenged to make economies of scope and scale for those companies, whether it's for producing, whether it is for importing and having larger markets, or whether it's for labor movement. While there will be a huge population growth in Africa, the job market may not match where that growth is taking place. I mean, if you look at Niger, it has the highest population growth in the world. It is unlikely that Niger will be able to create the jobs needed for that population growth. And so for Africa, African countries to be able to really accelerate growth inclusively there has got to be movement of labor as well as products and services. Narrowing the sub-Saharan African infrastructure gap will be critical also. And you've talked about power Africa. Power Africa has been a stellar in our way of thinking, certainly. The US government led initiative of 12 agencies. This is probably one of the better interagency initiatives that have taken place and is taking place. There is a diverse coalition of 140 public and private sector partners. We also have partners with other countries who are involved in the power Africa initiative as well. We have created the power Africa toolbox, which is a menu of 160 tools that can range from financial to legal to advocacy to try to make sure that the business environment that is needed for those investments will be there, as well as providing governments with the technical assistance to effectively negotiate with those private sector partners so that they don't have this balance in the partnership. For example, in Malawi, power Africa is supporting a series of reforms that are helping the government of Malawi improve conditions for private sector investment. It's support