Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey, guys. Good morning, everybody. Welcome to another edition of the accessatrader.com weekend update. I hope everybody is doing well. If you are brand new to the channel, guys, thank you very much for tuning in. I really appreciate the viewership. All I ask is take a second to just hit a like button, right? Hit a like, comment, share, whatever you'd like to contribute. But thank you very much for joining in for a couple of minutes of your weekend. And for all you guys who are curious about Pivots, again, there's a link below. We always have the link below. All you need to do is try Pivots once for about 30 days, and you'll quickly see if it's a right fit for you.  And I think if you do try everything, eventually you will find something that's going to be a perfect fit for your personality, account size, experience level, et cetera, et cetera. So that's it. So let's talk about the tape, right? So we are two weeks into 2024. All is well, right? I think that's the best way of saying it. If you look at the scoreboard for the first two weeks of the year, the S&P is flat and the NASDAQ is flat, right? That's a good thing, okay? Consider this. We were up 20% plus on the S&P last year. We were up 54% plus for the NASDAQ composite last year. So the idea that we didn't go down 5%, 10% in the last couple of weeks, that's a good thing. The fact that we're flat, it really does show you that at least the selling pressure that we saw in the first four days of 2024 kind of went away. That was almost the rest, and that was kind of the whole message when we started 2024. Despite us losing the 20-day moving average, even if we would have got down to that 390 level that we were discussing, it's still a big, big macro formation of the bull market in 2023. But once we reclaimed back the 5%, the 10%, the 20-day moving average, and we talked about the importance of that 406 level, on the cues of you've been watching the broadcast, you can see here now, we're literally now a stone throws away within what, three, four bucks of the cues back to all-time highs. Again, very, very cool market. Again, if you've been watching the broadcast for the last week, you saw the names woke up again.  Microsoft has been absolutely on fire. Meta broke out two days ago, followed through yesterday. And the one name we kept on reiterating over and over and over again, guys, it's not rallying. There's something wrong. Be careful. What happens if it loses the 50-day moving average? That's a problem. No way it's going to lose the 200-day moving average, right? We're talking about Tesla, right? And that's the one that we've been talking about for three, four days, and never participated in the rally, whether it was the last couple of weeks, whether it was the last couple of days. There is a problem there. There really is a problem. Once it lost the 50-day moving average, everything that was good and potential rally potential, and you see all these people talking about Tesla 300, 300, 300, if you go back to a video from last week, all I kept on saying was, well, yeah, that's fine and all. I get it that you think it's going to 300, but at that juncture, we had six days in a row of lower highs, lower lows, and then we finally closed below the 50-day moving average. For all you guys who are brand new traders, above the 50-day is bullish, below the 50-day is bearish. So Tesla started building below the 50-day moving average, and not only did it nestle below the 50-day, it lost the 200-day on Thursday. What happened if you thought the 50-day moving average was a bad thing to lose? Well, now it lost the 200-day moving average, and now we are here. If you believe the whole theory of the PS60 theory or anything that stocks trade from supply to demand to demand, well, here you have your next demand all the way back down to the October lows, which is $194. Do I think the stock is going to lose $100 in the next week? No, of course not. But this is what I will tell you. The longer now that we build below the 200-day moving average, the higher probability that it's going to have a lot more selling pressure than buying pressure for the short term. That's just the way it works. And Tesla, on the 50-day, just kind of a point of interest, if you guys notice, it held the 50-day for two days. It didn't put up a lot of fight, but it did hold the 50-day for two days. Once it lost the 50-day, it got down to the 200. The problem was, it only held the 200-day moving average one day, and that's not a good thing when you're talking about defense by the dip theory. The one person who did buy the dip is your friend and mine, Miss Kathy Wood, right? So Miss Kathy Wood is notorious for being the knife or the axe in Tesla way back in the day saying, well, we think Tesla's going to go to $2,000, $3,000 a share. Maybe it was $4,000 she would say. She was right. She was absolutely right with the post splits. The problem is she's been not so right with all her other holdings, and that's a fact. That's not an opinion. That's a fact. And she started buying Tesla in the last couple of days. The problem is she's buying the stock below the 50 and she's buying the stock below the 200-day moving average. And I've always said this as a joke. If she hired a kid out of college for $50,000 a year that could read a chart, she would say, hey, Miss Wood, I think we should wait until at least Tesla gets back above the 50-day to maybe start buying. But hey, she started buying. Maybe she knows something. Maybe she doesn't, probably doesn't. And the moral of the story is the longer it sits below the 200-day moving average, the higher probability that it will get back down to at least 11, the November 11 lows, which is roughly 205, 207. That's kind of where we start the week. Is it possible it has a dead cat bounce rally a Monday? Of course, everything's possible. The market just goes straight down just because the stock is broken doesn't mean it's the end of the world. But the longer it stays below the 200-day moving average folks, again, we will see 205, 207 level. And again, very, very aggressively, but that 194 level is definitely in play, which is the October 31st lows. So again, that's a name you definitely, definitely want to watch. Macro-wise going into this week. Cues are just, again, grinding. Again, like I said, three, four points off its highs. We had the CPI come out this week. We had the PPI come out this week. We had ABC, ESPN, everything else, right? Everything else under the sun, and they all said the same thing. Wow, wow, wow, wow. Let's say Charlie Brown. Wow, wow, wow. Okay, inflation, you're tamed. Yeah, maybe red cut, maybe not. I don't know, blah, blah, blah. It's the same thing. It's literally the same thing every single time I dare anybody to show me a day. They actually said something that had any point of reference that was actually valid, right? It's the same nonsense all in all, but they continue to talk, right? The Fed governors is like 600 of them speaking every single day, and I am really, really convinced that they do get, they get paid by the word, not by the year. So let's see, let's see what happens on the inflation front. First we heard March, and then we have all these notes saying, ah, we don't know about that. We'll see what happens there. S&P, we'll use the spy as a proxy. S&P pretty much at all-time highs.  So the market is healthy. Where do we start getting a little bit of concern? Let's talk about that as well. Again, we don't want to trade. We roast color glasses. The key element for this week is going to be this 404 level. The 404 level is going to be the support for the cubes, right? 404, so the last thing the bulls want to do is give up that 404 on the close, because again, look what happened last time we gave up the 10-day moving average.  But the point is you just want to be aware, right? It's not the end of the world, so stocks are not going to go to the lows. It's just the point of you want to know the area of interest for the week that if it gets violated, prices will come down. So this 404, guys, let's write this down. This 404 is going to act as support for the week. And to the upside, 413 is going to be the all-time highs to see if the Nasdaq can break that as well. So going to this week, you know, I like some names. I definitely like a lot of smaller names. Obviously, I still like meta. We'll get to the pivots in a second. You know, I still like Tesla to the downside, but if you look at some of the smaller names, they actually look pretty good. Let me give you guys a couple of names that I am watching. Not for me. Again, I trade nothing but mega cap technology, but there's definitely a couple of names to watch. ARDX, oops, I don't know what that was. ARDX, nice looking chart. Had a big, big move. Now it's just flagging, consolidating. Guys, keep an eye on this thing. This thing starts getting above this channel here, above the January 10th highs. This thing can wake up. ALT is another smaller cap name. Am I seeing that right? What happened to the chart here? Whoa. What happened to the chart here? ALT continues to flag. Keep an eye on this thing above the top of the channel here. Docu. Docu, I wish this thing had more liquidity because boy, look at this chart here. Had a huge, great breakout on earnings, consolidating for like two months. Docu is ready to go again. The only reason it got stopped on Friday was the upper Bollinger band. So definitely keep an eye on that as well. So let's get into the pivots for Friday. Pretty good solid day. You got a lot of big moves, continuation moves, especially in mega cap technology names, and the market reflected that. So Meta, if you guys remember, Meta broke out the day before, right? Meta broke out the day before 373. No, sorry, same chart. Never mind. 373 needs to confirm from Wednesday's breakout, right? Meta had a beautiful move right to the linear regression line. Took out 73. 73 traded right to 77. The reason why it stopped at 77, this is the whole point of understanding where you supply and demand zones are. Are you not guessing? Here is the linear regression line. Again, another silly line that you don't need on the chart, right? So it stopped there perfectly. And again, emotional buyers kicked in and technical sellers sold. It's a beautiful $4 move on Meta into supply. If it starts reclaiming Friday's high, you should get more moves to the upside. Marvel, nice little dollar pop. 66.05 needs to build. Here was Marvel, right? Took out 66.05, traded up about $1.10. So nice move on Marvel. Sova didn't confirm. Uber, nice little pop on Uber. 63.62 needs to confirm the macro channel. Here was Uber, took out 63.62. And again, stopped right at the Bollinger Band at 65. It starts building above 65. You should have the next leg up on Netflix. Let's talk about Netflix for a second. You can see the frustration without even talking about it. So for you guys who didn't trade like four years ago, Netflix was like NVIDIA, okay? It traded phenomenally. There was liquidity there. It was literally my second favorite stock to trade at the time. Obviously Tesla's number one. Netflix, whatever happened to this thing the last three years, I don't know. I don't know. Did it get sodomized by the market gods? Like what the hell happened to this thing? This thing trades with no liquidity, nearly 70, 80 cents spread. It only goes up when nobody's looking at it. It only goes down when nobody's looking at it.  So they got upgraded on Friday, right? They got upgraded on Friday with a $600 price target. So I wrote 503.41 needs to build Oppenheimer Upgraded. It never got to 503.40. So I bought the dip on this thing. The rising support into that 497 level. Yeah. So I bought it into 497. And I watched it for the next basically 30 minutes. 497, 495, 497.5, 496.5, 497.12, 496.33. I'm saying this, so this is such a waste of time. There's no buying pressure on this thing. Zero. 100 share a lot, 60 cents spread. I finally got out of this thing above the 497 for a cup of coffee. And I said, you know what? There's absolutely no reason to trade this thing. And this is officially getting omitted from my stable of mega cap names that I'm looking at Netflix desperately needs. I know it might be a good investing stock. And that's great. But from a trader's aspect, I'm done with this thing, washing my hands. They desperately need like a 10 for one split just to get some liquidity in this thing, just to get some retail in this thing. Usually I don't want any stock with retail, but boy, it needs volume. It needs interest. What happened to this thing? If you know, share a comment down below.  But just a terrible, terrible trader. I can't imagine a worser trader in a technology space than Netflix. Qualcomm 181.80 needs to build.  I wasn't even watching Qualcomm. 181.80 traded like the 4260s and came back in. Nothing there. And the last one was Tesla. We had a pivot from 225.30s. It came back in with more price cuts and all that stuff. $219.55 pre-market lows, if it confirms. It can get more selling here. It's Tesla. It took out that $19.50 and traded all the way down to $17.00. Again, this thing looks lower. It does have a dead cat balance on Tuesday that is fine.  The market is closed in observance of the great Martin Luther King day. So if you are logging on a Monday at the trade, you're not going to be able to be that successful. So see you guys all on Tuesday. So that's that on Tesla. And I think that's it. I think that's it. So ultimately, market continues to be good. We know our price levels to the upside. We know our support to the downside. Mega cap still looks relatively good. Tesla looks really, really bad. And let's see if that theme continues. So if you are planning to join us over the weekend and going into next week, just simply go down to the comments section. There's a link in there. And for the next 30 days, you will quickly get a sense of what is possible when you go outside of the quote, unquote normal. Guys, God bless. Have a great weekend. And I'll see you all on Tuesday. Take care.


In the heart of the grind where the stakes are high I'm facing the numbers on the sky Exams on exams, no time to lie Actual dreams on the myroly Pages turn to candle, berms night becomes the day On the sax you win Tables and charts, my constant companions From seasons of doubt, my plot lines cannons Fire and ambitions surpassing the mansions The pressure melts, remind every question My interests go longer, the saturary Your journey, I'll strive to the ax You were real exams to test of our life We're crunching the numbers, cutting through Like a knife, building futures and triumph we thrive The end is in sight, the finish linear With every exam, I conquer my fear Statistics calculus to my heart, they end here For the title of actuary, I hold dear So when the results come in and our destinies