Introducing D5 Render 2.5 Welcome to the latest update of D5. Packed with 35 new additions and optimizations. Discover groundbreaking features like real-time caustics, advanced camera tool, section tool, optimized video editor, new cloud workspace D5 Studio, and real-time live sync for SketchUp. Speaking of assets, we have added 403 new models to our library. This includes new interior parallax assets, dynamic character models, Xerophyte plants, and more. Upgrade now and dive into the new version with us. First up, the highly anticipated real-time caustics. Caustics are the patterns of light that are formed when light rays are refracted or reflected by a curved or irregular surface. Caustics effects are often found when light shines through glass or water. For example, the shimmering patterns around a glass bottle on the table. Or the ripples on the bottom of swimming pools and walls. In D5 2.5, custom, transparent, water materials, and the four basic light sources now support real-time caustics effect. Caustics needs to be enabled in materials and lights simultaneously. The shape of caustics light spot is influenced by the model surface and the normal map. Adjusting the intensity and softness parameters, you can see the changes of caustics effect in real-time. Another significant update, D5 lysync for SketchUp. For a more immersive and effective real-time design, rendering experience, press shortcut key F9 to enter full-screen mode. The SketchUp D5 workflow now offers real-time synchronization without the need for manual clicking on the update button. This means that, as you make changes to your models, materials, and other data in SketchUp, they will automatically sync with D5 in real-time. In this update of D5, we introduce some new tools to assist with scene building and storytelling. A cloud workspace provides designers and architects with a centralized and flexible platform for their assets and data to use across projects. Which is why we are presenting D5 Studio to you. Data in Studio is stored in the cloud space and associated with your D5 account. So even if you switch devices or work remotely, D5 Studio is easily accessible. For now you can create and store presets in Studio that include environment effect, brush, path, and fill presets. By selecting create preset in the right-click menu of the scene list and naming the preset, the effect and environment preset is saved to Studio. So you can directly apply the parameters to another project. To save brush, scatter or fill parameters, click on add preset at the bottom left corner of D5 Asset Library. As for path presets, select the path and find create preset in its right sidebar parameters. Next time you feel like using any adjusted effects, path or brush records, just apply one to your scene from D5 Studio. In addition to customized presets, D5 Studio aims to make your design process even more efficient and enjoyable by offering a resource section in it called D5 Curated. Here, a growing collection of high-quality presets, meticulously created by a group of talented designers are right at your fingertip. Here comes another much-awaited feature, section tool, enable it in preference widget, and the icon will appear on the top bar. Click on it, and you can use either section plane or section cue. Let's try section plane first, which is very easy to use. It automatically snaps and aligns to the selected face, according to the normal direction, whether it's a flat or curved surface, which saves you the trouble of manual rotation. You could also enable the fill option in the right sidebar to apply a specific color to the section surface. Filling color can be adjusted according to your needs. If you want to section objects only in specified layers, all you need to do is place the objects to be sectioned in a separate layer. Go to property visibility on layer, and select current. Section cube, as the name suggests, looks just like a cube model. You can use the gizmo to scale it and chop parts out of the model with a cube. When it comes to better viewing and editing your design, camera tool is also an indispensable feature. Again, it can be enabled in preference widget, and an icon will appear on the top bar. Click on camera, and you can directly create a camera to place inside the viewport and make adjustments while previewing in real time. Alternatively, you can create a camera with the current camera option. All the cameras you create will be included in the object list with a camera filter, making them easily accessible. Once you select a camera, a camera preview window will appear in the lower right corner of the viewport. Hit the pin so the camera window is always there for your reference as you're editing in the real time viewport. This eliminates the need for repeated navigation, allowing you to focus on finding the best composition and effects. In advanced camera tool, new aspect ratio options are also available. By selecting the desired camera and clicking the activate icon, you'll find adjustable parameters on the right sidebar, such as aspect ratio, size, and more. This means you can effortlessly create vertical videos tailored for different social platforms. Now it's time to talk about a substantial update in the new version, an optimized video editor for easier animation rendering. Click here to enter video mode. With the newly added camera tool, there are two ways to create shots now. Method 1, create a shot as you did before by clicking on plus current view here. Once you have created a shot, you can now directly add another view to any desired point of it. Method 2, create a new shot based on the camera tool you added to the scene with selected camera. In previous versions, each clip corresponded to one shot. However, in 2.5, one clip can contain one or multiple shots. This provides you with additional flexibility in capturing different perspectives. Get everything in one clip for more convenient preview, editing, export and post-production. With the upgrade of the whole video editing module, there has been a significant improvement in the performance of keyframes. In previous versions, after setting keyframes for a character to move from point A to point B and copying them to different shots. The character in each shot would start walking from point A to B and then repeat. Now with 2.5, you can see that the new settings allow characters to perform the whole walking process across shots without starting all over again. The new video editor actually goes far beyond your expectations, opening up a remarkable array of possibilities that will revolutionize your animation creation experience. For easier animation creation, you could use single selection, multi-selection or cross-selection. And then, one, drag to change the order of the views. Two, drag to change the order of the shots. Duplicate or delete shots in bulk. While creating effects, you could, one, copy and paste to another view in the same shot. Two, copy and paste to multiple views in the same shot. Three, select a shot and update effects for all the views in it. While exporting, you could, one, right-click on a single shot to select render or add to render queue. Two, select multiple shots and render or add to render queue in right-click menu. Three, right-click on a single clip to render or add to render queue. Four, add all the clips to render queue with just one click. Open D5 2.5 and discover the optimized play control, zoom panel and more. New light source shape display option for point light, rect light and strip light. Enable it, and the actual sizes of the light sources will intuitively display in the viewport. So if you have slot lightings in your scene, you don't have to distinguish the emissive material in advance while modeling. D5 super resolution, D5 self-developed super resolution algorithm is based on Neural Network super resolution image generation algorithm and combined with multi-channel rendering feature maps. It significantly speeds up image rendering. In addition to the new stuff, we take a step further in optimizing the existing features and improving the interactive experience. The right sidebar has been redesigned. Batch parameter editings are available for paths and properties with adjustable parameters. The rotation axis of D5's gizmo has also been optimized to avoid collisions caused by misoperation. In brush records, you can see the names of the models when you hover over their thumbnails, allowing you to quickly find the corresponding assets in D5 asset library and reuse it. D5 now has better support for high resolution screens. The size of the interface will scale according to your screen settings and the fonts and icons will appear clearer. However, please note that this comes with an increased memory usage and you can choose to enable or disable it in preference settings. D5's water material can now reflect glasses and their reflections, enabling accurate and realistic presentation of complex light and shadow effects. The real-time effect of subsurface scattering material has been significantly improved and you can hardly see any noise in the viewport. There is a new option added to SSS material to enable skylight influence on SSS materials, further enhancing the rendering quality. Realistic plants are essential in architectural visualization. In this update, we have further optimized the vegetation effects, particularly in exterior scenes, the level of detail in darker areas and the light and shade effects have been enhanced, resulting in even more realistic and immersive visuals. Of course, we also ensured the consistency between real-time previews and video outputs. The rendering quality has also been optimized, with a noticeable improvement in clarity for images with a resolution of 2K and above. D5 Asset Library, as well, is updated with improved interactions. In addition to the existing dynamic filter, we have introduced an HD filter to easily locate models with higher definition, which are often placed closer to the camera to enhance the overall realism of your renderings. In the search bar, search history will be displayed for easy viewing of previous search records. Search suggestion is also supported, and you can click on the tags to directly jump to the corresponding search results. The material classification directory has been adjusted with new classifications, such as concrete, woven, SSS materials, etc. We are committed to providing a more user-friendly experience. Stay tuned for more optimizations in the Asset Library. Moving on to the last update in this video, we simplified the process of installing D5. All you need is a small 20 MB package from our official website D5Render.com. Once launched with a simple setup process, it will automatically start downloading and installing. You can see a new installation interface. In addition to D5's installation directory, you can also choose the workspace folder for saving assets, local resources, and temporary files. In the permission settings, you have the option to choose whether to install D5 only for the current user or with administrator permissions for all users. This setting not only provides convenience for team collaboration, but also ensures software security. Now, we have covered some of the major updates in D5 2.5. There's definitely a lot more for you to explore. Check out the link in description for the full release note. If you'd like to learn more about a certain feature with a detailed tutorial, remember to leave a comment down below. Thanks for tuning in, and see you in the next version.


Hi everyone, Joe from jazbeascasebrakes.com coming at you with our last filler for that Steelers random number block. But we're going to do this pack break first, well actually we're going to give away four spots within the pack break first, then we'll do the pack break, then we'll give away those two random number block spots, then that number block randomizer is in the next video. If you're looking for that. Big thanks to this group for making it happen. Appreciate you. Here's the extra spots right there, so let's gather everybody's names, and let's roll it and randomize it one and three four times, top four after four, we'll get extra spots. Good luck. One, two, three and four. We got Michael, Nicholas, Chad and Tristan, congrats to you. Extra spots going your way. Duncan Tink, just jumped in for a little fact, the last MLB post that didn't feature the Yankees Red Sox card in front of Blue Jays, won the World Series, the last post that didn't feature the Yankees Red Sox or Cardinals, it was the Blue Jays that won the World Series, I see, sorry I misread that. So some units have gone on, Omen units have gone on the Blue Jays, what are the Blue Jays futures at? Let's roll it, randomize it six and a two, eight times for names and teams, for the pack break itself, one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, Tristan down to Tristan after eight, six and a two, eight times for the teams, one, eight and final time, got the Titans down to the Bolts, all right, there's the first half of the list, and then there's the second half of the list right there, no trades in the single pack break, it's alphabetized by team, let's print and rip, also, if this matters to you, the one pack break is from a fresh box, fresh hobby box, 2021, yeah, how should we do this, we'll, we'll select a side first, we'll go one, two, three, left side, four, five, six, right side, then we'll go one, two, three, four, five, from top to bottom, if I roll a six, I'll just roll again, two, one, two, second pack down, simple as that, all right, here's the final print, there's the flawless, that's coming up in a later video, 1600, that's not bad, plus 1600, some good value there, all right, we've got Devonta Smith, Blue, 50 out of 99, rookie card for the Philadelphia Eagles, that's for Adam, looks like no autographs here, here's the NFL debut Micah Parsons, you know what, rookie Josh Palmer may get with Mike Williams going down for the Chargers, might be some extra boost in the Joshua Palmer stock, Tristan with the Chargers, Tristan with the Dallas Cowboys, and once again Adam Cupperman with the Fly Eagles Fly, the dynamic playmaker Devonta Smith, all right, now let's flip back over here, let's gather everybody's names from Adam through Nicholas and everybody in between, third and final dice roll, and it's going to be the top two getting spots in that Steelers random number block, Steelers number block, top two after five, one and a four, five times, one, two, three, four, and fifth and final time, so from three through 32 it's going to be sad times, sad, Adam, very close men, just not quite, three through 32, thank you though everyone for trying, but only the top two can be happy in this one, that's Chad Wright is very happy, and so is Michael P with that extra spot that he won, that came in handy, Michael, top two congrats to you, we'll see you in the next video for that break, for that randomizer, jaskyscasebreaks.com


Are you looking for very detailed videos on how to code in Unity? Are you wanting to make your own badass idle game to show off to your friends and family? Are you wanting to learn? I want to introduce you to my Unity Idle Game Tutorial series. I believe it will suit you well. Here I teach anyone who is interested in learning how to code or use Unity, or both, by explaining all the examples of code I use in each episode. And yes, I promise you will learn something new in every single video, or most of them. I do my job to make sure any single one of you can learn how to code and use Unity without lots of confusion. I be sure to explain all the aspects of my code in every video. Why are my idle game tutorials better than the rest ones out there? I love to explain and I love to help anyone in the comment sections and even outside of the YouTube, like on my Discord. I love teaching and my goal isn't to only make an idle game at the end of the series, but also to teach you guys easily in the best way possible. They're also better because I have tons of video on every single aspect of an idle game. If you enjoyed this series, make sure you smash the like, subscribe to my channel if you're new, check out all the videos, and I hope you guys learned something new.


Is the world getting better or is it on the verge of collapse? Stefan Sagmeister emphatically believes that things are looking up and in the art exhibition, Now Is Better showcases a bold new way to convince the world that he's right. He takes actual paintings from the 18th and 19th centuries, disassembles them and creates new works by juxtaposing them with data visualizations of just how much things have improved since the good old days. Some works chart the incredible decline over the centuries and deaths on the battlefield from famine and from extreme weather events while others show how much cheaper food and lighting have become in real terms. One piece documents the explosion in the number of guitars per person on the planet an indicator of growth and leisure and entertainment while another charts the persistent belief that crime is always rising despite its well-documented decline. A heralded graphic designer who has designed album covers for Jay-Z, The Rolling Stones and Lou Reed he's won two Grammy awards including one for his design of the Talking Heads box set once in a lifetime. Born in Austria in 1962 he's called New York City home since the 1990s and he draws on sources such as Our World in Data, Human Progress and the work of Steven Pinker who has written the forward to an art book of the Now Is Better series that's due out later this year. In a wide-ranging conversation, Sagmeister tells me why it's so important to acknowledge and defend material progress, why art and commerce are not enemies and what he loves about the new world he's adopted as his homeland and how that ties in to the Now Is Better project. Steph and Sagmeister, thanks for talking a reason. Wonderful, thank you so much. So give me the elevator pitch on the Now Is Better show. Well, it basically comes out of my interest in long-term thinking because I discovered that there are really two ways to look at the world. One is from a very short-term perspective what is happening right now which is basically what all media looks at it and if you do that almost by definition everything looks bad because things that are going bad go bad quickly. Scandals, catastrophes and so on. While many things that develop well, that develop positively do so very slowly and don't really work in a short news cycle but that's really what the show is about to look at the world from a long-term perspective, 20 years, 50 years, 200 years, I think we have a couple of pieces that are 500 years and where if you take that point of view many, many things look very positive. Was there a moment where you were like, aha, this is what my work is going to be for the next few years? There was. What was? Well, I was lucky enough to get one of those residencies at the American Academy in Rome and one evening I was sitting next to a lawyer who was the husband of one of the residents' artists and he told me that what we see in Poland, in Hungary, in Brazil at the time really means the end of modern democracy. He was a highly educated person and I looked it up. I went back to the studio that night and quickly Googled it. What's the story of this modern democracy? When did it start?  The United States. I went back 100 years after World War I. There were, I think, 18 and now we have just a good 80. I think 87 democracies that the UN says they're democracies. So it turned out that this smart man had really no idea of the world that he lives in. But I discussed it with other people and was immediately surprised how much pushback I would get. Because, you know, specifically, there were certain people, and in this case it was mostly on the political left, who somehow want to believe that things are going down, that there is some sort of an investment in that. What do you think that is? I think if you're an activist, it might be easier to get people over to your cause if you can tell them how bad things are. And I think there's a truth to that. Many of us being so overwhelmed by all the negative news that we get on a daily basis, give up and say, oh, this is so terrible we can't do anything anyway. One of the paintings that you have is titled, Richer and Poorer. And it shows in 2029% of the global population was living in poverty compared to in 1990, 35% of the global population was living in poverty. But then you ask how many people believe poverty has gotten worse and 55% of people believe that poverty has gotten worse over the past 30 years. Only 12% believe that it's gotten better, which it has. So are people misinformed or do they want to believe that they're living in a bad period? I think it's a mix. I think it's a mix of, I don't believe that the media is inherently evil or they're just trying to mislead people. No. They believe what they're saying. They believe what they're saying and they know, specifically now in the last 20 years, since we have clickable links, they know what people like. The media gives us what we like. And we all prefer negative news over positive news. I am just like everybody else. I also do prefer negativity. And I actually think to create pieces that are positive is somewhat more challenging because they by themselves tend to be less interesting. The vast majority of pieces, when they have anything to do with commentary of life, social commentary, anything will be critical or negative. One of the series of pieces in the collection, look at how much richer we are. One actually looks at global GDP and how much richer the planet is, which is fascinating. One painting is Bright Lights. Time worked for an hour of light and in 1800, that was six hours of work for an hour of light. In 2000, it was two seconds work for an hour of light. You have another one about the hours working a job. And it's amazing that not only has the amount of work you have to do for a second of light has come down, but the amount that we work is much less. How do people respond when you say, well, actually you're working a lot less than your father probably or your grandparents? On the work front, I think there is an interesting phenomena going on right now in France, where you have all these protests going on against moving the pension years up. And I think that's a direct result of this information not being part of our daily discussion, because if everybody would be aware that we now live double the amount of time than we did 100 years ago, then it's just logical that we would have to work a little bit more before we can go into our retirement. You have a piece called Artists, Lawyers and Doctors, and this is the number of artists, lawyers and doctors in the U.S. Artists, 2.5 million, Lawyers, 1.3 million, Doctors, 900,000. Is it a sign of a good society that there are more artists than doctors? It's definitely the sign of a good society that it would be able to sustain a very large group of people that has very little function. We can't do anything before we have shelter, before we can't breathe and eat. And so all of these other things, and specifically the artistic impetus, is only be able to even to be pursued once we have shelter and once we have something to do. The cave paintings are of the animals that hunters caught. Exactly. You can paint after you've eaten them, but probably not before. And they're done in a cave once you are sheltered. Right. And you have another piece, the number of playable guitars in the world, which is increased massively. So that speaks to the idea that it's a pretty good world where a lot of people are expressing themselves creatively. That's an indicator that we're doing pretty well. The numbers with the guitars is absolutely astonishing because it went from a couple of hundreds, decades ago to tens of thousands now. So it meaning the increase is just incredible. Going in the other direction you have a painting that talks about the decline in the number of deaths from natural disasters, which is also something that, again, if you're, I would say, if you're over 40, you should have no problem realizing like when you were younger, you would hear all of these stories about hundreds of thousands of people starving to death or dying because of earthquakes or volcanic eruptions or tidal waves. And you don't really hear that very much anymore, but we think the world is getting worse on that school. Yes. Well, it's exactly what we talked about in the beginning. It's that there has never been a news report about there was no earthquake in California today. Right. So all the positive things just go unreported, but even the absolute number of people dying went down incredibly. Yes, a fraction of what it used to be. And that's certainly true of things like pandemics and whatnot. So however bad COVID was, the response was quicker and more effective than the 1918 flu epidemic. Yes. I always found it fascinating that doing COVID, one of the words that was used the most in the media, also in the New York Times, was unprecedented. Even though the people who wrote that clearly had the knowledge that this is not unprecedented. Maybe unprecedented this year, but for sure not unprecedented this century, where you had AIDS that killed 30 million people, you had the Spanish flu with between 50 and 100 million people and so on. You know, a number of the pieces talk about immigrants and immigration being a positive thing.  You first came here in the late 80s. You settled here fully in the early 90s. What drew you to New York and how does that reflect in your work? Well, I came here first right after high school. It was a high school gift from my brother-in-law. It was in 81. So New York was from its now perspective in a pretty bad shape. I would say crime was incredibly high, but it was just fascinating to me. Even though I was born in a very pretty small town in Austria, I was always attracted by big places. I think it's also a lovely mix of American friendliness, which might be odd because, you know, New York is not known as a friend. Exactly, but ultimately it is quite open. And I haven't done a piece with it yet, but I've just come across and I checked it and it seems to hold up. I just came across data that showed that refugees, not immigrants, refugees that have been in this country for 25 years or longer, have a 30% higher income than the average American. And with immigrants, okay, I believe it, but the refugees is pretty astonishing that the refugees in their lifetime, not in the beginning when they come here, but in their lifetime would surpass the locals. I find that to be the strongest indicator that there is an American dream, that that is alive, that I've come across. And I know it has been incredibly fashionable to say that the American dream is dead. And even I feel sort of like a silly sitting here or claiming otherwise, but those numbers point in that direction. Your background is as a graphic designer, which is more functional than art, right? True, 100%. Do you see a sharp distinction that many artists or any critics would draw between kind of commercial art or instrumental art and real art? Is that a false dichotomy? I can argue it both ways. If people ask me, what do you call yourself? I definitely am a designer. And the work that I'm doing here, I would also see as design work simply because I would say that there is a functionality to it and which I find pleasing, but I also totally understand that many artists would not want any functionality to their pieces. That's the whole point of art, right? Is that it resists being used for some other purpose. And I would say even there would have to really say it's the whole point of contemporary art because art by itself, if you look at it historically, of course also had many functions. Many of the most famous artists in the past did very functional work, you know, Michelangelo designed candle stick holders, Leonardo obviously did many, many other things. There is no such thing as pure functionality. It's all on a scale. Talk a little bit about your process for the pieces in this exhibition. Basically, you buy cheap paintings from the 18th and 19th century and then you put data visualizations over that. It originally started with pieces that we still had in the attic, in the house that I grew up with that came from my great-great-grandfather's store who was an antique dealer in Western Austria and the stuff that they didn't sell wound up still being stored there to this very day. So the first pieces really came from there. And since then, by now I think connected to about 30 auction houses, all of them in central Europe, mostly Austria's. So what do you pay for?  I think they're all for sure under 4,000 euros, which I'm kind of a beneficiary of the fact that specifically 19th century art but also 18th century art is very much out of fashion right now. What is the pleasure of painting over a piece from the early 19th century with a data visualization that shows how much better things have got? Well, we're not really painting over. We're really basically taking the piece apart. We are plucking holes into it and we are inserting the new data. So the piece, if you want, is destroyed, which I had given some thoughts about, meaning ultimately I solved it for myself thinking that if somebody in 200 years takes my work that they found at tiny auction houses and makes a new piece out of it, I think I would be very happy about it. But the process really is I buy these pieces at auction. By then I've already had received the photo, so I ultimately try out designs. And these can be inspired by the data. They can be inspired by a color scheme. They can be inspired by form. They can be inspired by a composition. They can be a reaction on the existing piece. But ultimately by and large, I'm trying to go against the composition that is existing because that sort of seems to create the kind of tension that ultimately makes a good new composition. How much did you increase on average? Just make it up if you have to. If the average painting that you started with cost 4,000 euros, what was the average that you were selling it for? How much did you increase the value? I think it's probably times two or three, but of course there's also significant cost involved in creating this. There is an incredible amount of just hours that go into that, not just myself or for my own, but there's a whole team working on this in the Brooklyn Navy out. There is costs in the renting space. There's all of that stuff, so there is that. But ultimately I actually try to keep the price as low as it's possible that it still makes sense. I want this to be in as many homes as possible. That's the functionality of it because ultimately the goal and therefore really it's embedded in the concept that these things hang on somebody's wall as a reminder that what they just write on Twitter doesn't mean it's the end of the world. You've worked with a number of very globally known recording artists like Lou Reed, like The Talking Heads, like The Rolling Stones, and you did an album cover for The Rolling Stones. Which album was that again? The Battle One. That's like a platinum record. What does it feel like to know that your images are going out to a million people or more? Fantastic. It's also something that I love about design is that it's a pretty democratic way of working where we did a Jay-Z cover where the first print run was 5 million for the price of 20-25 dollars. Which I don't think there is a publication in the out world that reaches those kind of numbers. I very much love the fact that design tends to live within our lives. I see myself as a communication designer, more so than a graphic designer. I think the challenge specifically for somebody like me is to make these things interesting enough that even though they're positive, people will be engaged. And that's the challenge.


So, we have a short discussion now, so I'm kind of combining some new work today with some very classical ideas of yesterday we talked about very simple source model. Today I want, now in the last half hour I want to go in a slightly different direction and talk about where I see a lot of opportunity for the future. This is going to be work that was done with Kyle Anderson as part of his PhD thesis and also now with Inche who's here with us today. And the idea being that volcano geodesy alone can only tell us a limited number of things about what's happening in the subsurface. Talked about yesterday the fact that we can get something about the depth of the magma chamber, some crude ideas about its shape. We can get the volume increment but not the volume. So there are things that we learn that are very useful and we can see inflation preceding many eruptions. But we don't get all the things that we would like to do and we're not really in a position to use them in a strictly forecast sense. And so what we have been working on and I think there's a lot of opportunity for the future, sort of where our group is going to put a fair amount of emphasis, is to combine the deformation measurements that we make from GPS and INSAR with the kind of conduit models that Michael talked about yesterday. So I think this is hopefully going to be nice for you because it's going to merge some of the things that you've heard about. So again, just to emphasize, we've seen this before. For some reason I have to look this way, I can't help it. But we can measure deformation. We can measure these inflation-deflation cycles and now we see these exponential-like recoveries, 1 minus e to the minus t, type behavior in these cycles. So this is something that over the last few decades as GPS has become more mature, INSAR has become more mature, we're getting better and better at doing this in multiple places. At the same time, we've learned a lot about how physical properties change as pressure decreases as parcels of magma move towards the surface to all the things that Michael talked about yesterday. So the goal that Kyle and I set out to do in his thesis was to try to merge these two disciplines and apply it specifically to the dome-forming eruption at Mount St. Helens that Michael also addressed. So again, remember, we had an explosive eruption in 1980, a big-plenty interruption column, and then some two and a half decades later, this very degassed, day-side spine was extruded. So very similar kinds of chemistry, but very different type of eruptive behavior. GPS that we had at the time, this is from the USGS, Mike Lasowski, was pretty good. You can see as the eruption occurred that there was deflation, the GPS stations moved towards the summit of the volcano as we'd expect. We only had one continuously recording GPS receiver in place prior to the eruption onset that's Johnston Lynch Observatory. And you can see there actually was very little inflation going on, very rapid deflation early in the eruption. And then interestingly, relative to what I was just talking about, as soon as the eruption lasted about three and a quarter years, and very rapidly began re-inflating. So now I have this question, does that really mean there was recharge coming in? Or maybe this was this viscoelastic effect? I don't know yet the answer to that question. I'm going to show you some model calculations. Once the eruption was underway, more continuous GPS sites were installed, these are their time histories. So we have the temporal variation and deformation at a number of points. And we also have estimates of the extruded volume. This came just from taking digital elevation models done from photogrammetry and other methods and differencing them to estimate the volume of the dome that was extruded. And I'm sure almost everyone has seen this sequence, but just in case you haven't, I'll walk through. This began in the autumn of 2014. This is Mount St. Helens crater. The lateral blast went off to the north. This is the dome that was left over from the 1980s eruptions. And then this welt came up underneath the glacier and then pushed out against the south wall of the crater. You can see it pushing the glacier to the side over here. So from that, we get the volume as a function of time of the extruded volume. So what, as I said, Kyle, Michi, and I now are trying to do is to build a relatively simple model of an erupting volcano, couple that to an elastically deformable medium so that we can compare to surface GPS measurements. And so there are going to be some of the features that Michael talked about yesterday. We're not going to get into some of the details at the scale of the bubbles. We're going to assume this is a relatively slow eruption. So we're going to assume that all these processes are at equilibrium. So we don't have to worry about the diffusion, the time scales of diffusion of volatiles into the bubbles, for example. But we'll have a magma chamber here from fitting GPS measurements. It's been fairly well established that it's more like a proletalypsoid than a sphere. There may or may not be recharge coming in to the bottom in some way that we're going to assume also is similar to the way I had it in the previous analysis. Magma moves up a roughly cylindrical conduit. And at some point, it completely freezes into this essentially solid day-side spine of extrudes up along a frictional surface, a ring fault system to the surface. And so things happen as the magma moves up. Exolved water and CO2 come out of solution and form bubbles. Some of that gas may escape out the sides or up the top. Crystals were formed. And as those crystals make up a larger percentage of the magma, it will eventually turn into something that's semi-solid and then slipping along these frictional interfaces. And we know that because there were earthquakes that were recorded that are interpreted as being occurring on these boundaries. So the idea is to see, can we learn more about the system from making a more physical model of what's going on? And remember, I always like to emphasize, our job as volcano geodesists is not to fit data. Our job is to learn about the magnetic system. So we can always fit the data. We could fit data with models that we know are wrong. You say, I fit the data. You say, so what? What have you learned? So the idea is we have to learn something. Now, of course, there's a trade-off. I can make models that become more and more sophisticated and have more and more unknown parameters. And if I get enough unknown parameters, I can fit anything. So there's a balancing act here. We want to make this as realistic as we need to, but not too complicated. So you have to watch the time, Ellie, and maybe start waving at me when I've used up too much time. So I think the details, in some sense, are not the critical thing here. It's the approach that I hope you take away. So this is from Kyle's thesis or two papers published. So we have essentially the same kind of equation for recharge as I had before. The time rate of change of pressure in the magnet chamber depends on the flux in versus the flux out. So we have magma coming into the bottom. We have flux that's erupting out at the top. We have our conservation of mass and momentum on a radially-average 1D profile. So this is exactly the equation that Michael derived for you yesterday. This is the continuity equation here, conservation of mass, one-dimensional conservation of momentum. Magma viscosity, as he emphasized, is a complicated function of dissolved water content and crystal content, the higher the crystal content, the much higher the viscosity. And then once this turns into a solid plug, we have friction on the boundary. And then we have mixture properties, say, for the density of the mixture of these different phases, a liquid phase, a gas phase, and a solid phase. We have to worry about things like solubility of CO2 and water. The reason we include CO2 is not because CO2 is volumetrically that important, but there are two reasons, one of which is that there could be measurements of CO2 discharged. That could be independent data that we can feed in. But also because when you have a single water phase, you get a step change, you have a discontinuity in the physical properties and the water first appears as an exalt phase. So not too important other than to say, as pressure decreases, the CO2 comes out of solution much more rapidly than the water, as was emphasized yesterday. Now, one of the things that Kyle did in his work was to build a relatively simple forward model of the conduit in the erupting system, compare that to observations, the observations being both the GPS data and the erupted dome volume, but then to do the inverse problem through exploiting something called Bayes theorem. How many people have seen Bayes theorem in a geophysics class? Oh, many of you, so that's very good. So what we have here is the so-called posterior probability, that's the probability of the model parameters, whatever our unknown parameters are, conditional on the data being proportional to what we call the likelihood, that is the likelihood of observing data D given model parameters and a prior probability. The prior is all the information we know about the system before we collect the data. And we can sample from this posterior distribution using so-called MCMC methods that I'll sort of elucidate on the nice slide that Kyle made. So we take an initial guess at the model, time step through the governing equations, analogous to the code you ran for your exercise yesterday. Of course, this is not an explosive eruption so we don't have fragmentation. This is a slow eruption where inertial effects are negligible. But you time step through until the eruption's over, then you make predictions, you calculate the observables at all the time steps, this would be the displacement of points at the surface, how much volume has come out, you can pre-compute Green's function is to do that calculation, compare that to the data. So you have predictions, you compare them to the data to get residuals and then you sample through that to something called the Metropolis Hastings rule to determine whether or not you retain a sample and then you just do this many, many, many times. So in order to do this, millions of times that forward calculation has to be something that you can run very quickly. The nice thing is you build up distributions then of the parameters that we're interested in. And so again, I don't wanna emphasize the details but I'd like to take away the general message here and this is a nice figure that Kyle made showing distributions of the parameters from what we would call the conventional volcano geodesy approach that is fitting ellipsoidal magma chambers or mogie sources or what have you, but we typically get, I'd emphasize this a number of times, you get some information about the depth of the magma chamber called at the centroid depth. So here's a probability density function of the depth. You get something about the shape, that's here the aspect ratio that is how much longer it is in the vertical direction than the lateral, right? And that came from the ratio of horizontal to vertical. The stock like, the more elongate is more effective at producing horizontal displacements. And you can get the volume change or the product of the volume or the total volume and the pressure change. Remember in the mogie solution we got P a cube. You don't get P separately and you don't get a cube separately, you get the product. So this is what you get from the sort of conventional analysis. When you build a more physics-based model there's a lot more going on. There's dissolved water, how much water is they able to depend on how much of that water turns into an exhal phase and it becomes a bubble that affects the compressibility of the system, compressibility determines how much volume change you have in the magma chamber versus how much is coming out of the top, okay? And it allows you to also place more physical constraints on some of the parameters. In other words, you all know this, I think we may have talked about it yesterday, there's this product of P a cube to occur but remember we said if the radius got too small the pressures would be unphysically large to explain the data. So we can start building in bounds based on physics and when you do that all of a sudden now look at all the different things that you have some hope of resolving and getting probability density functions for. So the same things we had before centroid depth aspect ratio volume change but now because we have these other physical constraints we can say things like what is the total dissolved water content? Because that affects the compressibility of the system is the recharge coming in from below. What is the total volume? So things that we care about as volcanologists were able to put better constraints on. Is the red line a product of P a cube? The red line I think is the maximum probability, maximum posterior probability. This should be, he had uniform bounds and I believe the box shows what the prior bounds were. Sorry? You're using net GVS expression for the thing that's going to put it in the space? Yes. Using the time dependent, full time dependent. You're all pretty big water and you need to keep that in the cold water or are you pretty involved in the same? Oh yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. It's this model. It does have time dependent magma chamber pressure as magma's flowing out, the pressure's decreasing within the magma chamber. So it is a dynamic model. Okay, and then he was able to build posterior PDFs on something about the shape of the magma chamber. Okay, so now moving on to what we've been working on with Ichi lately, very influenced by a paper by Schneider-Rempel and Cashman that put in a little bit more physics than Kyle had in his analysis. In particular, we put in two things. We put in equilibrium crystallization, we put in gas loss and we put in a more natural rheological transition from the liquid to the solid. So in something like 10 minutes, I'm gonna go through this very quickly. And please save me or Yingqi if you want more details. So again, crystals will form and we're gonna take that, the solid volume fraction to be a function of pressure only, assuming equilibrium crystallization. So we're ignoring kinetic effects. Bubbles will form and gas can escape either vertically or laterally. They will have a transition from viscous flow to plug flow. We use the Schneider et al analysis. They calculated the solid volume fraction, the crystal mass fraction as a function of pressure using the thermodynamic program melts. So for a given temperature, we can calculate what fraction will be solid. And we're gonna assume that this is isothermal, that the radius of the system is large enough that we'll ignore heat loss for the most part. So as crystals form, the viscosity is gonna increase by a tremendous amount. We assume that we know that rheological law and that the total velocity, remember, we're doing a radial average velocity is the sum of a viscous part in a frictional part. The viscous part will look just like we spoke about yesterday where there's a shear stress that depends on the difference between the pressure gradient and the magnetostatic gradient. R is the radius of the conduit, inversely proportional to the viscosity. And then there's a rate dependent friction that could occur on the boundary which is proportional to the normal stress. And so what happens is that at great depth, the normal stress is high, the crystal content is low. And so all the flow, essentially all the flow will be viscous. As you get to shallower depth, the crystal content will get higher. The viscosity will get exponentially higher. And yet the normal stress is decreasing. So we'll transition rather naturally to the frictional flow of dominating. It's kind of a busy slide. We have continuity of both the liquid in the solid phase and continuity of the volatile phases. Both water is shown here in CO2. So this is the time dependent term. We're actually gonna look at only steady state solutions for the moment. So water can be either dissolved in the liquid or exalt in bubbles. And then there can be both vertical permeable flow once there's a connected network of pores or water gas can flow out laterally through the sides. And we're gonna assume that there's a percolation threshold that with roughly spherical bubbles that you have to get to a critical density, critical volume fraction of the gas phase before a flow can occur. So there are a bunch of parameters that we don't know. You could describe this in different ways and to determine what we think we know a priori and what we don't. This is just an example. First of all, show a steady state solution that Ying-Chi computed. And let's just go through a couple of these to show you the behavior. So here this is depth along the conduit and these are the volume fraction of the different phases. Yellow is the gas phase, blue is the melt, and red is the solid. Remember we're assuming equilibrium crystallization that depends only on pressure because temperature is fixed. So as the pressure decreases, we get to a point in the solid fraction really radically increases. There's a threshold when permeability becomes active and at that point the gas volume fraction starts to decrease because we can lose gas to the outside. And eventually the melt disappears and it's either solid or pores. So we transition from a viscous parabolic profile to plug flow where the upward velocity transitions from viscous flow here goes to zero and all the sliding comes along the frictional interface that occurs at a peak in the shear stress. This is the pressure profile here. So this kink in the gradient is where the shear stress becomes maximum. And so Yin-Chi computed this for different temperatures. So remember we're assuming temperature is fixed but of course the properties are functions of temperature. So if we were to decrease the temperature from 850 to 800, so the velocity, the solid volume fraction would increase more that would depress this transition to the solid plug to greater depth and slow down the flow radically because the viscosity would be much higher. So in the last five minutes I'll show you what Yin-Chi has been working on and that is to take other kinds of observables. So we're gonna look at kind of a steady state part of the eruptive cycle after the initial period where the eruption began. It's never truly steady state but we're gonna approximate it. The point we wanna make here is there are other kinds of observables that we can add to this problem. We've added a bunch of parameters that we don't know. We don't know all the properties of the permeability. We don't know some of the other properties, the frictional properties and so forth. But we wanna show you that we have more observables. We do know the exit velocity. We can do that from photographic measurements but also the USGS did this wonderful thing. They slung our GPS spider on top of the dome. And so we know the extrusion rate from those measurements. You can see the spider just moving along the dome from that we get the linear extrusion rate. We also know the volume flux from the differencing the digital elevation models. We also know something about the porosity of the eruptive materials, right? And that puts a constraint on permeability because if we start with a given amount of gas and we end up with five or 10% porosity then we know so much of it must have escaped to get out and leave us with this kind of process. So that becomes another observable. We know from patrology, the crystallization depth, patrologists look at the ground mass and can tell us something about the pressure at which the last liquid phase crystallized. And we're gonna assume that we know something about this transition from viscous flow to plug flow from the drumbeat earthquakes that people at CVO have analyzed. So again, this is just sort of a candidate of what we could do with these kinds of information. So this is actually not even using the GPS data. We're not using the time-dependent GPS data. Just these observables that I just mentioned and Ying-Chi does the Monte Carlo sampling and ends up with these, the blue here are the prior distributions and the red are the posterior and ends up with some distribution for say the magma chamber pressure, the total water content, the permeability constant on a log scale, percolation threshold, friction coefficient and so forth. Point being that we can now put in more observables, constrain unknown parameters about the system and then work towards going back now to the time-dependent system where we can put the GPS, the time-evolving volume flux and be able to build up more and more constraints on the system. So there's some interesting observations that come out of this rather than focus on that. I think in my view, the future is how do we build systems that can incorporate even more kinds of data? We talked about gas emissions. We haven't included gravity. We're gonna hear more later in the week about gravity measurements. Other kinds of geophysical observables, geochemical gas measurements. These models give us the ability to rationalize these different kinds of measurements in a self-consistent formulation. And I'll just leave you with the question. Is it possible to use this in a forecasting way? This is something a number of us are grappling with. I'm gonna put this out as a question. I don't know the answer to this. But of course, these models are fully deterministic. We have conservation of mass, we have conservation of momentum. If we know all the material properties and we know the initial conditions, or we can calibrate them, then in theory, put this in, you know, in italics, in theory, we should be able to forecast forward in time once an eruption has started and maybe say something about how it will behave. And I'll just show you one figure I put together a number of years ago, just as sort of a thought experiment using the GPS data. And this is based on Kyle's analysis, not including any of the effects that you put in. But we have here the volume extruded as a function of time on this axis. We also included the GPS data, although I'm not showing that. So this is just volume flux as a function of time. And what I did in this calculation was take the data only up to here. Do the MCMC sampling to constrain the initial conditions, the initial volume, the initial pressure, the initial water content, unknown parameters and so forth. And then randomly sample from that distribution and say, now it's deterministic once I know the initial conditions, I can propagate forward in time. And this gives trajectories of the system that would go forward. This particular model was so simple-minded that it could do only one of two things. So it's not useful in a real world context. It's a more of a gedonkin experiment. This system could only do one of two things. It could either go into a steady state eruption, as shown here, where the flux into the bottom of the magnet chamber balance the flux out. Or if there was no influx, you'd get an exponentially decaying flux that would eventually, asymptotically end at infinite time. Because temperature isn't changing, it can't freeze, there's no solidification that can happen, it only has one of these two cases. But you can see that based on the data up to one and a half years, it sort of seems to favor the ending eruption rather than the steady state eruption. And you can do this in a probabilistic sense. And in fact, we weren't the first people to try this. Larry Mastin and the people at the Cascades Volcano Observatory were actually doing this in quasi-real time. They were using a simpler model than the one I just showed you, but they were doing the same kind of thing, seeing whether or not, based on the data that they have, that it would go into a steady state eruption that would go on for many decades, perhaps, or it would asymptotically end. So I do think there is the potential for building models of this sort. And it remains to be seen whether they can be made useful. But ultimately, again, the usefulness of models is whether they predict data that you don't have. You can always fit the data that we do have, but if we could actually predict something into the future and do true tests, forward tests, I think this would be incredibly useful. So I think this is a big challenge for the community. Don't know whether, you know, how successful we will be, but I see this as a very promising area moving forward. I think I should stop here and take any questions.