Hello, and welcome to this special Lowe Institute panel on Papua New Guinea's Indigenous Languages as part of what we are calling the Long Distance Lowe Institute. I'm Jessica Collins, a research fellow in the Institute's OSPNG network and Pacific Islands program. I'd like to begin by acknowledging the traditional owners of the land on which the Institute stands, the Gadigal of the Eora Nation, as well as the traditional owners of country throughout Australia, and pay my respects to elders past and present. 2019 was the United Nations Year of Indigenous Languages. In recognition that a year was not long enough to protect, bolster and promote Indigenous languages, the United Nations dedicated an entire decade to it. On January 1 of this year, the United Nations International Decade of Indigenous Languages began. There is no country in the world that holds more Indigenous languages than Papua New Guinea. Current estimates of its living languages are between 830 to over 850. That number, though, has been in steady decline since Papua New Guinea's colonisation. But while extinction to local languages remains a severe problem, a new Papua New Guinea language was recently added to the list. Today, we are going to talk about and unpack how a language came to be added to Papua New Guinea's list of documented languages. But first, we'll discuss the significance of Indigenous languages for Papua New Guinea's cultural diversity and identity. And I'm pleased to introduce the panel joining me today to discuss these issues. First up, we have Dr Kalala Devetici, Senior Research Fellow and Programme Leader from the Papua New Guinea National Research Institute. Kalala's academic advocacy has focused on the benefits of bilingual education in Papua New Guinea's schools. We also have Dr Lydia Mazatelli, a postdoctoral researcher at the Slavic Institute in the University of Cologne. Lydia was a principal investigator on the project that documented and described the Kurumau language, the latest Papua New Guinea language to be added to its extensive list. Our junk professor Craig Volker is also joining us from the Cairns Institute at James Cook University. Craig is a specialist in Papua New Guinea language documentation, Tok Pison and Pitch and Creole studies, and second language teaching of Tok Pison English and German. Craig also writes extensively in the media about Papua New Guinea's Indigenous languages. And finally, we have Dr Sakarepe Kamene, Head of Linguistics and Modern Languages at the University of Papua New Guinea. He was also publicly advocated for the preservation of Papua New Guinea's languages and the challenges of language preservation for this country. We have a lot to cover today, so let's get straight into it. Sakarepe, I'd like to start with you first. Can you tell us about the nature of Indigenous languages in Papua New Guinea? Just how many languages do you think there are across this extensive landscape? That's a question I think we need to do more work on it to find out. Actually, if you get a new one coming out, that suggests that there are many probably are not discovered yet, I think. So the numbers could vary greatly. But at the moment, we have very old numbers that exist, about 800 something, 30, 850. Many of them are very small in terms of number of speakers, half of them, I think, 450 or 500. Very small. I was looking at a late net auto-nepidels research book. It says about 427 or something has less than 500 speakers. That's a matter for concern for many of us in Papua New Guinea. Because there are many small languages, they are practically not possible to include all of them in education or other things. And probably that's why many people are looking at larger languages to use in practical sense for education and other purposes. And many other small ones are somewhat neglected. We must increase in large projects, especially in rural areas. That's a matter for concern because we haven't done enough research in many of these rural areas where small languages exist. And with the coming of this larger development, they could really affect and quickly diminish our vernacular languages or top places in rural areas. So that's one major concern. Big developments amidst all these local cultures and languages, it may really severely affect many other languages, which we really do not have much idea about them. So smaller languages, we haven't really worked to find out what their statuses are. Whether they are decreasing the maribond status or whether they are increasing in terms of numbers because so it's quite a complex situation with the dynamics of economics coming into play. And in Papua New Guinea, I think social type of aspects have been neglected as more economic aspects have been promoted much vigorously. So that could also have a negative impact on many of our smaller languages. So my concern is the smaller languages we know very little about at this moment. Large number of it is Mendang-Sipic area. So again, that area is also being affected by big developments. So again, this is the concern. It's complex. We know little about all these languages. So the impact, negative impact could be quite severe on many of these languages. Will I leave it for anyone who wants to comment on it? Thanks, Sakarepe. Yeah, I think I might bring Craig in at this point actually and just see if he can unpack for us what it takes to become an independent language. And how does that play out in place like Papua New Guinea where there are just so many languages sitting side by side? Okay, well linguists like to talk about the difference between language and dialect. So we've got different varieties of speech. You know, I speak more American, you speak more Australian, but we can understand each other easily. So we speak different dialects of the same language. If I speak my ancestral language, German, perhaps you and I won't be able to understand each other. So we say that English and German are different languages. And so we've got the same thing happening in Papua New Guinea, except that these, this idea of language and dialect is really introduced from Europe into Papua New Guinea. In Papua New Guinea, people don't make that distinction as distinctly or as readily as people would in Europe. So it's important, not only in terms of identity of people whose identity is very connected to the ground where they live and to the village where they live and to the plans with which they're associated. But not only that we talk about the different languages and we describe those different languages, but that we also describe different dialects in within a language group. Thanks, Craig. They sound like really important distinctions to be making in a place like Papua New Guinea and in a place that's so linguistically diverse as this country. Can you tell us what's happening with top person in English? Is it, are these becoming the dominant languages? And is this a problem? Yes, thank you, Jess. It's very interesting how these two languages are taking dominance in the country at the moment. Okay, so it is a, it is in fact a concern for some of us when we try to think of the indigenous languages that are not being spoken quite well now by the current generation. Okay, the current generation can to speak more of top person in English, which have now top person is actually now the dominant the language of dominance in Papua New Guinea. Okay, even even in the homes, languages or indigenous languages are not spoken most often. And the problem is when we have mixed marriages, that is the problem right there. Mixed marriages, I mean a couple coming from two different language backgrounds. So when we have a lot of that in existence now in Papua New Guinea to a couple coming either from the island, one from the highlands. So when they are in the home, they tend to speak more of top person than English, and they do not speak their mother tongue at home. And that is how children do not grasp the language of either the father or the mother in the home. And that is very problematic right now. And I'm sure the others who are listening on here will agree with me that that is what's happening now, because there's a lot of mixed marriages in Papua New Guinea, and the languages are not the indigenous languages are not being spoken. And especially when we come to families who live in the cities, or towns of Papua New Guinea, they'd rather, they'd rather to speak English or talk this into their children in the home and not their languages. That is something that I've been very vocal about. I've spoken, you know, like in the in the media outlets on TV and other platforms like that, trying to encourage parents that the onus is now on the parents to take on board that responsibility to speak the mother tongue, the vernacular skin the home, because if some of you know the vernacular language or the vernacular education, which was used in the outcome space education has now been thrown out the window, and we are back to to use in English only in the classrooms. So what happened during the time of the OB when vernacular education was in existence was the first three years of education was in the mother tongue, they called it topless topless schools. So we had elementary one elementary true elementary one sort of prep e prep elementary one and then elementary two, and then when they completed that phase, they would move on to the primary school, lower primary school which started off in grade three. So during that time, that is something which I did quite a lot of work on on the transitioning from the mother tongue into English. So the problem I found was that teachers who supposed to be teachers in grade three. These teachers supposed to be teachers who spoke or speak the languages of the children, the students that they are teaching, but in most instances. They were teachers who were speakers of talk missing from another another language group. They did not speak the languages of the children so when the then transitioning from the children's mother tongue to English was happening. The teachers were using talk missing to transition the children from their language to English. There was a lot that there's a big problem right there. The teachers were supposed to be in grade three to transition the children from their mother tongue to English, supposed to be a speaker of the child's language, but it didn't happen that way. So that was how there was a lot of problem in this so I can see Craig nodding his head I think he, these are the kind of problems that we have uncovered in Papua New Guinea schools. So because of that situation. Politicians so people have the hierarchy decided to, to abolish that that system of using vernacular education and now we are back to SBC which is using English only as the language of instruction in the classrooms. So going to my own research as somebody who is very much interested in, like I put all my, my work into bilingual education using the first the mother tongue as the first language for a child in his or her education journey. That is the way to go. But what I found in my research was that it was not implemented, although it is a very brilliant theory bilingual educational teaching or a child in his or her first language that did not happen, simply because of the implementation part of it. And one of the reasons was not correct. And one of the reasons was just what I gave. And there are other issues that other factors that were also involved in this. So it said to say that the vernacular education using mother tongue in the PNC education system has now been thrown out the window it's been abolished and it's now back to English only. That is, it is quite a big problem at the moment when it comes to language education. And so my, my take on this is that when I've been interviewed and been asked by reporters. I've always taken back my view that even if we do not use bilingual education anymore, maybe use still teach the language, just like teaching Bahasa Indonesia or talk piece. What's this Japanese or Mandarin. Teach the language as a subject in the classroom. These are just my ideas or my views because it is, it is really problematic and if we have to preserve and maintain the PNC languages, how do we do that. So the other only option, apart from our reintroducing in the classrooms is back to the parents. I have always been telling parents or advocating for parents that parents need to speak to their children in their mother tongue or what we call in PNC talk less. That needs to be spoken in the home. So at least the children can appreciate their own language because language goes together with the identity that all these need to be appreciated. But that is not happening at the moment so that is why I've been drumming it into parents even like people I have discussions with, we need to speak the language our mother tongue to our children. Especially, the problem is with educated parents. Educated parents don't have time to speak their, their language to their, the children if it's always stop, you know, engage, maybe I will stop there. You can come back to me later and let me give an opportunity to others to talk. There's a lot to talk about. Thank you, Jess. Could I just break in there. I think what Kailala has said is very important about parents. And I think one of the problems is that parents don't know how in mixed marriages, how to use both languages within a family. And for that reason, they use talk piston or with educated families they use English. And I think the media in Papua New Guinea fail us, because they don't give enough opportunity to people like Kailala to explain to parents through radio or TV or newspapers, how families can use different languages within a family. You know, my children were raised with with three languages quite easily, because both their mother and I were comfortable with them using different languages within the family, sometimes Papua New Guinea and families are not comfortable using a language at one of the parents doesn't speak well. And so people like Kailala can explain to families how to do that would be really useful. It sounds like a really important thing to do, especially within the household, starting small it's something that I wanted to touch on later in this panel is, you know, what are the solutions to these challenges that we're bringing up today. But first, I would like to bring you in Lydia, I'd like to hear from you at this point giving your experience in a small rural community in New Island, which will also touch on in just a minute. Yes, I'd just like to ask you, do you think communities are growing more aware of the importance of raising their indigenous language. I cannot speak for communities. I can speak for the lack of our community. And even that, as an outsider who went there in order to study their language and to sensitive device in a way. So I think my point of view is a bit biased. But what can I say is that the whole community really responded very enthusiastically to me being there and documenting their language they felt really proud, because the neighboring communities already had Craig documented knowledge, which is the one that just on the south of local mouth, the language color which is North has also been documented has a Bible translation. So the people in local mouth have a little bit left out and they were really happy to have the language documented. So there are some language activists, sadly, some of them have passed away. But there are people definitely in the community who feel that the language is threatened. And literally, everyone when asked directly would say, yes, it's a shame that some of our children speak better talk pleasing than the criminal. Everyone is, I would say is aware of the importance of passing on the language. Yes. Whether this then becomes practice really goes into the practice of then transmitted this language that you feel it's so important. The answer is yes and no in some families. Yes. And in some families, especially mixed families. Also a couple of monolingual families. It is, it is not, but not, not because the people think that it's not important that have never met this point of view yeah we don't care. How to do because many children speak to peace in a school then they use the peace and English, and you can often see people of, let's say 3040 years of age, speaking with each other in the local language and then when they address the children to talk pleasing. So the answer that I can give from my outsider perspective is that, yes, definitely people are sensitive to the topic. And they have also become more sensitive in the last years that outsiders unfortunately mostly have come to the region to document the language and that also makes them proud. But there is a problem in the transmission, absolutely not in devaluing the language, but what Kailala and Craig said that many people I think lack the instruments lack the basic education just for learning how to speak to your kid. And in general to keep the language alive in the community, though they tried, I cannot say that they don't. Thanks Lydia. I wanted to redirect this question to you as well. Sir Julius Chan who is the governor of New Island province where you documented this language. He's also the former Prime Minister he made a statement in 2020 urging new all New Islanders to hold on to their local languages. He said, it is your identity and makes each and every one of you unique. Through our languages we honor our ancestors and through our languages we find ourselves. So, are you able to explain to us the dynamic between identity and language in Papua New Guinea and how languages work are they are marking of belonging to a particular social cultural or ethnic group. Again, I, unfortunately, I cannot speak for the whole of Papua New Guinea and that I think the other three panelists will have more experience. I can speak for what I saw in lack of mouth, and they're let's say, like remote is a highly multilingual society, people there, everyone speaks the same. Some speak also good English, especially those who went to school during colonial Australian room because they learned very well English at school. But even now, I mean some of them really speak good English, then they speak like remote and they also speak the car and knowledge which are the neighbor languages so the society is multi lingual and to how language relates to identity. I think it's not black or white. It's not just that your language is your identity. On the one side, yes, and I will come to that in just a second. But also your multilingual multilingualism is your identity. I mean, you are not only defined by the fact that you pick that particular particular language, but also by the fact that you can communicate with other groups in, in other languages, especially in New Island where the communities are small than there are other regions of Papua New Guinea like Anga province which basically monolingual so they are perhaps the replace of that in New Island. Almost everyone is multi lingual. But then coming back to lack of mouth. It has been used by the lack of mouth people as a sort of secret code and it is still by children who go in boarding schools in the car speaking territory, because then they can use lack of mouth among themselves to communicate and to keep secrets from the other children. It is not that the language are totally unintelligible. You can understand the car speaker with lack of mouth if you put attention to it. The lack of mouth people also speak the car. The car people do not speak lack of mouth because lack of mouth is a very small language spoken only one village, so they can use it as a secret code. And they do acknowledge the common origin of Kara Nalik, La Kurmao Tagak and Lavongai people. This is spoken in the North of New Island. They all come from the same ancestral place. They have the same clans, the same tradition so they acknowledge the common history, but they are really very proud that they have their own language and when I went there and asked the community whether I could go live with them and document. And before they were really enthusiastic because they felt like we wanted to be recognized. So I would say that the identity of La Kurmao people, yes, it is shaped by the fact that they do speak this. They are La Kurmao speakers. I should say that they come from La Kurmao even if they don't speak that well the language, but still they would say that they speak it. This is a huge chapter that I don't know if we do have the time to dwell in, but anyway they do have the past acknowledge and here that defines them as La Kurmao people. I should say that multilingualism is also a part of identity of being in this large New Island region. I don't know much about the other reasons of Papua New Guinea so perhaps someone can speak better than me, but that's, I would say represents really well as a situation in La Kurmao. Thanks Lydia. I'm going to bring in Kallala and Sakarepe in just a minute but we've heard Topless come up quite a few times already in this discussion so I'd like to bring in Craig here Craig's written about Topless. You could just talk us through that concept please. Okay. So Topless is a talk person word and it comes from English. Talk means language in place means your home. So it's the language of your home. And as in Australia with indigenous people, Papua New Guineans are very closely tied to the land where the ancestors have been living for a very long time.  And as Lydia said to La Kurmao people I think everywhere in Papua New Guinea, when you're walking down the street and you hear somebody in town speaking your language, you turn around you look you feel a little happy that you've got somebody who's connected in Papua New Guinea, people use the word one talk, which means people who speak the same language. And this is a word like mate in Australia it's your friend, somebody whom you can trust somebody whose behavior is predictable. It's somebody who speaks the same language that you speak. Thanks Craig. I'd like to bring in Kalala now and hear about your experience with Topless and and perhaps your reflections on Sir Governor Chan's phrase about statement about language linking to ancestors. Thank you Jess. Yes, with regards to that, I would say that I'm a Kuanua speaker to start off with. Kuanua is the language of the Tau Lai people I'm a Tau Lai, and I'm from from East New Britain, New Britain Island but I'm from New Britain. So why speak Kuanua? Kuanua is the Tau Lai language, the language of the Tau Lai. So when it comes to trying to relate the language I speak back to our ancestors, it is actually a challenging question that you asked me to say something to say, you might be on this, because as a speaker of Kuanua speaker, we speak the language, but who in the right frame of mind would think that we are, you know, like, we think about our ancestors. You do this unconsciously, you don't realize that you are speaking a language which has been passed on from generation to generation, you know, like going back to our ancestors. So I think what I'm trying to say here is, it is interesting how our languages have been passed on from generation to generation. The Tau Lai language, the Kuanua language has been documented, I mean, it's written, we have Bibles, a Bible that is written in Kuanua, we have our hymn book in Kuanua. So even I must say that the languages, the neighboring languages, or like Nakana in West New Britain, even some in New Island, in Nakana when their languages were not documented yet, or like the Bible or the hymn books were not written in their languages yet, they used Kuanua in church because Kuanua, my language was already written before way back, I'm not too sure when exactly it was written, but because of that, neighboring languages who had not heard their languages written, used the Kuanua language for church services, for their hymns, and for the Bible, reading the Bible, the word of God in the Bible was done in Kuanua. My take on that is that for my language, unlike other smaller languages in Papua New Guinea, I'm lucky to say that my language was documented long time ago, but it's not that I'm not proud that it was documented. I am sad actually because the current generation have deviated from the original Kuanua language. A lot of code switching has actually hampered the actual Kuanua language. So code switching, talk in English, in the Kuanua language, into the Kuanua language, that's actually kind of what, how can I say that the language is now not purely Kuanua these days. I just returned from my home in Kokopo in the village, like two, three weeks ago, and I was actually surprised to hear the way the younger generation speak the language. They do not speak Kuanua all the time now. When they speak Kuanua, there must be talk pissing in there. So it's always code switching that is taking place in my village at the moment, or in all the most of the villages in, in East New Britain, I'm speaking for Kokopo, the villages along the Kokopo area. The Kuanua language or talk less is not really spoken like how it used to be. And two, when it's interesting as linguists, we know that when different age groups speak to each other, they speak a certain type of Kuanua or a certain type of talk pissing. And if you try to converse with an older, older or an elderly person, it's different. You can speak a different talk pissing to the older person or a different type of Kuanua to that elderly person. And that is because the language has changed so much because it is now in the language, there is English and talk pissing in it. So I think what I'm trying to say is these, the language is now being mixed. So it's not the pure version of Kuanua that I told I would speak. It is now, it has been tempered here. So the language has now changed from the pure Kuanua to a Kuanua which I'm not, you know, we need to give a description to the current type of Kuanua that is being spoken today. So the language is changing. And as we know, language are never stated. Language change all the time and that is what's happening to my language and I believe that is what's happening to a lot of Papua New Guinea languages today. Thanks, Kalala. It's really interesting local experience and thanks for sharing your insights on that. I'm sure it's not localized as well. I'm sure it's a common experience across Papua New Guinea. Thank you, Sakarepe. You've made quite a few public statements about how languages are vital because they are vessels of information. I'd really love to hear more about this paraphrase your words you said if a language becomes extinct all sorts of information will be buried with that language so can you just talk about this perspective for us please. Working with language I think we realized that I realized that language captures all kinds of things and keeps those things, information, land information, vehicle information, fish or whatever it is in local areas. Also language also captures location where you are. It gives you space and time in your location so it becomes a way to identify yourself when you have language around with you. When you lose language all these things disappear, all these things go. So you are left with nothing and I find this with young people who have gone to school in English, have lost their vernacular languages or top place, they quite often go to the village while listening to them, they have no space for themselves, they can't locate themselves where they are. And that's becoming a problem in terms of identifying themselves in a modern Papua New Guinea to have a real strong footing to say whether or not they are educated person, modern Papua New Guinea or whether they are traditional young people, it's becoming hard in terms of just making distinctions using identity or top place, using top place to make distinctions. So that's one of my concerns. One of my experience, my personal experience in 1978, 1979 I was doing a research on traditional transaction of properties. And there was a dance that was going to be translated to another tribe. So I was recording all those things and they said, they told me to re-enter our society, the Zia society, which is my society, you got to know Zia to re-enter. This is the point of entry. That's your identity that you must use. That's a label you must use. So they told me, take off all your clothes and get into traditional clothes. And then they said, we are giving you a topic on transaction of this particular dance. And you're going to say the story all in the Zia language, not in top person, no mixing, not in English. And that was a challenge I thought. I was thinking all the time that I'm a Zia person, so I know everything about it, but they challenge. This is where they think your position becomes important. Their position becomes important. And that's where they locate their identity. And if you are not there, you are losing it and people are concerned. Once they are concerned about loss of identity, loss of your top place, loss of your history, it becomes a serious problem for us in Papua New Guinea. As Lydia was saying, we come from a lingual society also, so you know extensively about other societies if you know their language. Neighboring societies, neighboring communities, if you know their language, you know quite a bit about these neighboring people, their river systems, their land systems, their marriage systems. So again, that knowledge captured as a multilingual person becomes a larger kind of say global in inverted commerce. Global ideas, global knowledge for you to operate in a much wider sense if you are multilingual in that local community. So top place gives you somewhat restricted kind of way of operating, but if you become multilingual, it opens up with global way of looking at things, even in that particular area where your neighbors are. So we haven't really worked on these many aspects of multilingualism, bilingualism, to really open up what these ideas capture and maintain for us to learn more about the situations we have, especially in Papua New Guinea. Thanks so much. I think I absolutely love that story. It really is a brilliant vignette to the complex dynamic between identity and language. We're going to move on now to hearing the stories about documentation. So I'd love to hear from Lydia first about her experience in documenting the language of La Coroma and just exactly what that entailed. The story actually began in Europe. When I first met Craig, he came to teach a talk piece in course at the University of Bremen in Germany, where I was working at the time. And I always had the desire to work to do fieldwork to work with a yet undocumented language because so far I had always worked with already documented languages in Europe. And then Craig offered me to organize a stay in the Nalik speaking village where he had near to the village where he had been working. I went there and by the way to catch on what I said, I, I, there I studied the vocabulary related to landscape. So how the Nalik language conceptualizes the landscape they have different words for different parts of the reef. Found in English, for instance, so they have their own view of the landscape, something that if the language disappears, also disappears this, this link to do to the land, so to say. Well, when I was there, I came to Papua New Guinea for two weeks. And during this time I made a couple of trips to the village of La Coroma, where Craig had told me that a language was spoken, which had traditionally been considered a dialect of Nalik or of Cara. And I just wanted to ascertain how deviant it was from these two languages. So I basically went there I asked people to cooperate with me just on one day trip. Tell me some basic sentences and some basic words. I compare them to Nalik and Cara. Yes, they are similar, but they are different enough to be a different language. It's like Dutch, Frisian and German, for instance, or English, Frisian and Dutch, they are all related, but still different languages. So then I made an application to get a grant, I got it, and I came back to Papua New Guinea for several periods of extended time I was once three months, four months, and then two months. So my work consisted of making recordings of people talking in the language. First I started with simple narratives like my life. What did I plant yesterday in the garden. I tell you about my family. And then with Mrs. Diana Gurumang, and other who unfortunately passed away last year. And then with other people from La Cromau who speak very well La Cromau and as well as English, we sat down and transcribed word per word. So I had a recording on my computer I put it in a documentation software called Elan. I segmented into chunks, like I am going, which at first of course I didn't understand I learned the language while documenting it. So I went back to my consultant, the person who was working with me in that moment, like, usually it was Mrs. Gurumang. Can you please transcribe exactly word per word, what they said, then the unity of word. It's also difficult to define in a language of the so far has never been written. Luckily, I had Craig's grammar for Nalik and a grammar for Kara. The languages are similar so I already had an idea. And then I translated and very likely, luckily, and Mrs. Gurumang speaks perfect English also other people so I could get the meaning in English and then I would ask. Not always the meaning is one to one, there were some words that she didn't know exactly how to translate. So then I would ask questions to understand exactly what's the meaning of this grammatical construction or words. For simple words, it's easy, like mango or wreath. Of course, when we move on to grammatical topics like the difference between I have been singing and I have sung and I sang, but then it's more difficult and you need a lot of work to distinguish among all these meanings. It's not that we see these and of course I have not yet completely understood the whole of the grammar, but basically documentation is that to make a lasting record of a language, which is also multi purpose. It can be used by linguists, it can be used by anthropologists, it can be used by the community to have a recording of their own language to use to teach children. And in Lacroix-Romao, I also produce what I mean, what does it mean, I, they produce, I just help in writing down. We produced some school books for children in the pre-school, so before prep, so that they could read in Lacroix-Romao and just a sample of simple stories where like the alphabet, animals, plants, colors, things like that. So to sum it up, documenting, the process is to go there, record the language, transcribe, translate into the English, I use the English because it's easier or whatever other language you may want, and create a lasting record digitally, also on paper, if there is the possibility, I did everything digitally because it will be stored forever and ever, hopefully. And then as I said, it must be multi purpose in that that I try to record different kinds of text genres, narratives, my life, my family, traditional narratives, but also conversations, and procedurals and instructions, for instance, how to bake a seagull cake, first to take the leaves, then you do that and that. Why? First, because it gives us very interesting information about the culture of the community who speaks the language, but also for us linguists, when we only analyze narrative languages is something different than the language that then you're using conversations or you're using giving instructions to have a lot of new words and new constructions that would never come up if you only record monologues or just people talking about their lives. So I try to vary as much as possible so that the people who will, I hope, the community first, but also other linguists, or everyone else who is interested, who will then have my collection in the hands will have as complete as possible to blend onto the language and the culture that it represents. Thanks so much Lydia, it sounds like a really valuable experience that you had in that community, and a really, really important thing that you've done for them documenting that language. There's a little bit of time left before we move on to talking about preservation of these languages and what can be done next but first I'd just like to hear from Craig about his experience in writing or documenting the Nalik language and exactly how the Nalik language interacts with the Nalik language as well. Yes, as Lydia says, Nalik and Likurumau came from the same ancestor language, very similar languages. And I've been living in the Nalik area for quite a long time before we had the idea that Lydia would come and work with the Likurumau language. I don't know if I've told Lydia this, but I was scolded by the elders and Likurumau village when I came and and said this is lady coming from Italy and she wants to document your language and they said you were supposed to be doing this a long time ago now you go away to bring this lady in, because she's more enthusiastic than you are. But my situation with Nalik was quite similar when I went to work there. The difference being that I'd lived in Papua New Guinea for a long time that was a senior high school teacher so I had contacts in the community. So when I decided I wanted to do my PhD, I went to the community and I said, I want to get a PhD. I'm the one to become a professor someday I want to get a dissertation this is what I want. Now what do you people want if I come to your village and work with your language. And they mentioned a number of things they said they wanted to have a writing system for the language. They wanted to have a prayer book with Baha'i and Christian and Muslim prayers in it, because the community has different religions. They wanted to have help making school books for the primary school in their own language. And I said okay I can do this. And so then the community organized a language teacher for each day I had a Monday teacher. I choose to feature Wednesday teacher and so on for the five days of the working week. And I would spend a morning with each of those language teachers, learning how women speak how young people speak how old people speak. And the same way that Lydia work with the look for my I learned knowledge language and documented it. And if I just like to point out what one of my teachers said, his name was Michael. He was a poet and the knowledge language and composed a lot of songs. And he said that the knowledge language is only spoken by 5000 people and in five or 600 years. Quite possibly this language will no longer exist because knowledge people are marrying other people. He says, but when we produce something that's written in our language and they go to a museum and they see that book in their language. They'll know that people at this time were proud of their heritage. And they wanted to pass on their heritage to people and their language to people even if the language no longer exists. So they pick up a book and learn the language of their ancestors and have access to the knowledge of their ancestors. And he says because of that. He said his descendants would be able to be proud of who they are. And so this is the work that we're doing now, we're working for our for the descendants of the speakers of these languages now. They can become proud of who they are and what their cultural and linguistic heritage is. When we developed the first book in the knowledge language and it was launched to the community.  So we're equal to the Europeans. And I think this is also a very important thing that we through documenting the language through writing language down through writing down indigenous knowledge. We put them on the same level as languages of cultures who think they're very important. And allows this knowledge to be shared with people elsewhere in the world. Thanks Craig, this is I'm really glad that you brought this up some nice segue into our final discussion about the, the extinction of languages in Papua New Guinea and what can be done about it. Sakharappa I'd like to start with you. You've talked about before about the importance of language institutions. If you could just expand on that for us please and also just share with us briefly about the different stages of extinction that that the communities are experiencing at the moment. Yes, I'm trying to find out ways to save language and one of the ways that I think it's important to establish some kind of structure, basically to look after our many languages that we have and that can probably be easily done by creating a language Institute of some sort in Papua New Guinea. So that that Institute can generate probably research on the Nakula talk less languages on many of our languages at the moment. And as you said yes haphazard not control. We don't know who is getting what kind of information, and probably a structure like language Papua New Guinea Language Institute might be the way to get people, task people to do particular research and we have information with us and kept in that institute and maybe also students may be using that to do their PhDs and masters by using the Institute, and they gather information for us. And that extends our educational opportunities for young people, rather than just depending on universities to train language which we can't because of various restrictions funding and other things a number of porters of students coming to do linguistics at the university is very very small. So maybe finding another way an Institute which might give us a better idea better chance, we might have better resource. The government might give us a bit more resource because we are an Institute separate so we can conduct more research, especially targeting folklore language information. Language ecology, grammar of languages, we can do a lot of this if we have an Institute that controls this information, and most information we have may be kept in this institution for our younger generations and for other linguists, for other researchers and so on. So, so that's the kind of background I had in terms of talking about promoting the Institute, Language Institute in PNG. Thank you Sakarebe. Craig, I might bring you in here. I'd like to ask you your thoughts on how the government can contribute to preserving the languages. Is this just solely a responsibility of the Papua New Guinea government or are there others that can help? Well, Australia has a very important responsibility to Papua New Guinea because Papua New Guinea exists as a country because of Australian colonialism. So, in addition to what Sakarebe has said, and perhaps in support of what Sakarebe would like to be setting up with the Papua New Guinea Language Institute and to support the work at the University of Papua New Guinea where he is or the University of Guroka, which also has a linguistic program. I'd like to see the Australian government specifically give scholarships to young Papua New Guineans to do their master's degrees and PhDs in Australia in linguistics because Australia has very good linguistics programs. They're also very expensive linguistics programs. And in the overall scheme of Australian aid to Papua New Guinea, this would be a very small amount. And it would help to develop a core of Papua New Guinean linguists like Sakarebe and like Keelala, who are trained not only to educate people in Papua New Guinea but also elsewhere in the world. And that's where Lydia works at the University of Kelowna. It's a very good department of Papuan languages. And if you go there, you will not see one Melanesian person at all. But if you go to a Chinese language department or a Japanese or German language department, you'll see Germans and Chinese and Japanese people, you'll see speakers of those languages. And so I'd like to see Papua New Guineans working with linguistics not only in Papua New Guinea but also elsewhere in the world. We had a Brazilian researcher come to New Ireland, Claudio de Silva, and he was working with education and he made the comment that Papua New Guineans are much more aware with multiculturalism and colonialism than most people in the world. And this is a gift that Papua New Guineans should be able to share with people elsewhere in the world, like Australia, which sometimes has ethnic tensions or misunderstandings because of language. And so I'd like to see Papua New Guineans evolve much more academically outside of Papua New Guinea, as well as inside Papua New Guinea. Thanks, Craig. Clearly, education is coming up as a running theme tonight as well. Kalala, I'd like to ask you to talk a little bit more about how education can play a role in preserving languages in Papua New Guinea, and just how it can be better implemented. You talked before about how the challenges with the implementation at the moment, what can be done to make it better and more successful. I've seen so far as I go around to schools, I mean, in the time when bilingual education was in existence, I was carrying out the research in very certain schools in the country. So what, like I said previously, like it was not being implemented correctly, and I think that's why you're asking me what it can be done. So one is if we want to make sure that children are continuing to learn and we preserve the languages to these children, one of my recommendations is to reintroduce the bilingual education system in Papua New Guinea. This is one alternative, but if it is to be reintroduced back into the PNCS education system, it needs to, the approach needs to be very done in a way that it is actually useful. Just like I said previously, that it wasn't taught correctly, you know, there were no, it was not always the teacher who knows who knew the language of the child. So if it was to be reintroduced, the education, what is it, the authority who deal with teachers postings must make sure that their teachers are posted to schools where they know the language. When they teach they're breaching a ear, transitioning in ear tree, which is the breaching ear from a vernacular or topless to English, the teacher must be the speaker of the language, who knows the language of the child. So that's one. Another problem that I found was to do with the teacher training itself, teachers need to be trained in the, I think that is another area that needs to be looked at if we have, if we try to reintroduce this bilingual education in the country. There has to be a component in the teaching, teacher training curriculum, so that teachers are well versed on how to teach bilingual education, and I think that was something that was missing in the teacher training curriculum. So teachers were just like on a kind of situation, placed in there, but they didn't really know how to deal with children on how to actually teach them the transition period. So that is one. Okay, if it's not that I was suggesting earlier on, if it can be, it can be taught as a subject, just like, you know, one of the other foreign languages, if the education department does think that bilingual education is not, if we work again, then why not teach it as a subject, so that at least children who have now missed out or like who are now, who cannot speak the language itself, we still learn the language. So, in fact, what I found in my bilingual education research was that the, the bridging situation was only done for transitioning into English but there was no allowance for language preservation or continuity into the future. There was merely just to teach English. You see what I'm trying to say so like, there was a component in this whole bilingual transition program, what happened was like there was a certain percentage.  So you go into the next grade and then maybe it's 60%, 40% vernacular until it's 100% English. I'm trying to explain something like that. So that is actually what the department of education was doing with regards to this bilingual education program in the country, but that was not implemented correctly simply because teachers need to undergo the specialized training in bilingual education to teach it well. So that is one, so I think I'm suggesting two things, either you bring the bilingual education or teach the language as a subject. Thank you all so much for your frank and thoughtful answers today. I really found it so inspirational. I do hope that our listeners at home will be encouraged to continue on with their local languages in the home. And perhaps for those that don't know another language like myself to go out and start learning. Kalala, Sakarepe, Lydia and Craig. Thanks again. That's all we have time for today. Thank you for your insights and to the audience at home for watching. This has been a special panel for the Lowy Institute's OSPNG network. And I'd like to thank my colleagues Josh Goading, Andrea Pollard and Shane McLeod for their assistance in producing this event. You can head to our website to view more of our events and podcasts. Thank you and goodbye.


Alright guys, this is the Easyvis BC2, it's a brand new camera from Easyvis, I reviewed some of their cameras in the past and this is a very mini portable magnetic camera which I'm excited to try out. Just to run through some of the specifications, this also provides you with two way torque capabilities and I will give you some sample demos on that. It also has night vision up to 5 meters, I will show you some sample footage both daylight and nighttime. It also is compatible with your Amazon Alexa and also with Google Assistant. To save all your video files, you can also add a micro SD card up to 256GB of storage but you can also subscribe to the Easyvis CloudPlay option which is something that I tend to do. This also has a rechargeable battery powered by micro USB which gives you up to 50 days of recording capabilities on a full charge. And this is 2000mAh of battery life. This is full HD like I mentioned, it's 1080p which I think is great for a camera of this size and I'll show you how compact this actually is. And there's a few ways you can mount this including the magnetic base that it comes with. Let's open the box, so just in here you have yourself all of the information and warranty guides and then you have the camera itself. This is very tiny and before I unwrap that, this is the magnetic base, this side attaches to the back of the camera and then this side will attach to either the wall or a magnetic surface or you can screw it in and I'll showcase how you can do that but essentially this is a 360 degree ball head which you can rotate to position the camera in whichever convenient manner is useful to you. There's a side slot here with some of the accessories. So of course you have yourself the micro USB cable to charge it up, you also have some screws and wall plugs and to complement that you have this metallic attachment which will be used for the magnetic base and the magnetic strength on this is actually very strong. Now this is so easy just to clip if you wanted to have this in a certain position all the time and it does require a little bit of force to take off and this just proves how strong the magnet is because I'm actually still struggling to just pull it apart. If you didn't want to screw this into a wall, this actually comes with some adhesive stickers as well if you just want to place it on a wall or a shelf or something then you can take the adhesive label off the back of this, connect it to the metallic plate just like this and then you just stick it wherever you like and use that. So it's very convenient, let me go ahead and peel some of this wrapping off of it. There you go, look how compact that is. You've got the speakers there just on the top, there's your camera lens and then you have a infrared sensor there as well. So on the back of the camera you've got your micro SD card slot, the micro USB port, a reset button and the power button. So I'm going to connect this and this will be on the base there where the barcode label is, there you go, look at that, very compact, very easy to attach and any time you want to charge it just take it off, put it back on and then you're ready to go again. So let's go ahead dive in, power this on, charge this up and give you guys a sample on how to connect this via the EasyViz app. So I have the EasyViz app, these are my three cameras that I already have and they do great and by the way I'll link my videos down below for reviewing some of my other EasyViz cameras if you guys wanted to check that out. Let's go ahead and power this on, start up successful, start up is successful. Now I should be ready to pair this with my phone. Let's go ahead and look for the camera.  There you go, it has found it, go through the steps. Connecting to Wi-Fi, please wait. And that's it, pretty straightforward. You go through the rest of the steps and it should be connected. Wi-Fi connected, platform registration successful. Configuration complete, welcome to EasyViz. There we go, the camera is now ready. How quick and easy was that? So all I need to do is give it a name and then make sure everything is set up how I like and then I'm ready to give you guys a sample of how it looks and sounds. OK, guys, can you see where it is on the shelf at the back? Just there with the blue light. I'm going to give you some samples of how the video quality is and the audio quality because I've set it to the maximum resolution at 1080p. And this might not be the final place that I leave it, but it's very portable. So wherever you want to place this inside your house, it will do an excellent job. So let me go ahead and show you some sample demos of recording videos of that and showing the response time, the colors, the quality of the video and also the quality of the audio. So let's take a look at that now. So how are you guys seeing the video quality on this camera? Now, it's super portable. Of course, I have a window behind me, so it's going to be a little bit darker to see me as compared to if the camera was facing away from the window. But again, looking at the video quality in conjunction with the audio quality, what do you guys think? Now, this is pretty much on par with some of the larger, easier to use cameras that are connected to a means or are also battery powered. I think this does an excellent quality in terms of the video, just as good as those ones. And this is much more compact and much more affordable than the other cameras that I have. So for me, I'm pretty impressed on that front. Now, I've placed the camera towards the window so the light is coming from behind the camera and look at the difference in the quality. I am now super clear, and this is really a HD video. And in just this pocket sized thing, I'm absolutely impressed. But what I want to do now is also check the night vision mode and see when it is very dark, how good it performs. OK, guys, it is pitch black in here. I've closed all the shutters. I've turned off all the lights and it's so dark. Again, you can see how clear the night vision works. And I'm about two meters away from the camera right now. And it does mention, you know, up to five meters away. Here you are. I'm five meters away from the camera. And you guys can see, you know, pretty much you can still see the person, although it's not super clear as in daylight. You can still make up the person's image, the size and some cool details. Of course, I'm speaking from very far away, so the audio might not be super clear, but as I get closer, the sound will be becoming a lot clearer for you guys. Again, the quality on the night vision mode on this is just as good as some of the larger, more high end easy vis cameras. So for me, they've done a really good job with this type of camera.  So what more can I say, guys? I'm really impressed with this. This is the easy vis BC2. Check out the links in the description in conjunction with having cloud play, which I do subscribe to. Now I have four cameras from easy vis. I think this is the ultimate package for a bit of home security and, more importantly, peace of mind and some final thoughts from me. You know, if you are looking to get a camera for a bit of security and peace of mind around the house, maybe start off with something a little bit affordable and more portable, very easy to set up. This is the one to get. So I'm happy. Hopefully you guys find that useful. Make sure to subscribe. I have really cool reviews out every week with nice gadgets like this. And make sure to like this video and I'll catch you guys next time. Take care.


Income tax 2021-2022, reporting self-employment tax. Get ready to get income to the max, diving into income tax 2021-2022. Most of this information can be found in Publication 334 Tax Guide for Small Business Tax Year 2021 on the IRS website at irs.gov, irs.gov, income tax formula, focusing in on the other taxes down here, specifically looking at the self-employment tax. And traditionally, or most often, it would be applied to something like the Schedule C business, which would be reported on a separate schedule that would have, in essence, an income statement, income and expenses, the net then, rolling into line one income, and also typically being subject to the self-employment tax. This is page one of the Form 1040. The Schedule C would basically roll into the Schedule 1, the net then,


Rhaid i gŵr. Rhywbeth a'r ffordd o ymllun i gweithio'r ffordd am y 40th anu eu sefydlen a'n gweithio'r Ffyrdd Gros Bêl. Fel yna bryd i gweithio hynny i ddim yn gyfroedd yma, ac mae'n gweithio'n gwneud i gael â'u cynyddiolомau â'iwch yn Facebook ac yn ddiweddolol. Oni wedyn iawn, Olyfa Cynol. Mae'r ffordd i gael â'r Ffyrdd yn gweithio'n gweithio. Neud yr angen o gweithio hynny i gweithio'r unwyddiol, ynghylch o'r cwestiynau gwedig y gallwn amser o'r ystod, y ceisio y blefrau. Y ceisio'n ystod, mae'r angen ychynig. A'r ceisio eich gynhyrch? Yn ymwneud am y ffaith i ddechrau, mae'n mynd i'r ffaith ystod yn ei ddweud, y 30 minutu bobl, i'r gwneud o'n gwneud o'r cymryd o'r ffasgol, yn mynd i'n gwneud o'r hwyl i'r gweithiau. We have some questions online from those of you who have sent them in the past. We are going to try to answer as many as possible. We are going to have to try and have some fun as well, and maybe we will disagree over a couple of points. So, we have carefully constructed this panel to hopefully make it as abrasive and as combative as possible. Don't let me down, guys. Let me introduce my panel. I'm very glad to be joined by Corinne Vaughan-Hippel, the Director General of the Royal United Services Institute for Events and Security Studies based in London, United Kingdom. Jane Harmon, director, president a chief executive officer of the Woodrow Wilson International Centre for Scholars in the USA. Kishore Mababani, a good friend of this format. We joined for a session last year on corruption, I believe. You're the senior advisor and professor in the practice of policy at the National University of Singapore. So we have a lot of bases covered here. Let's get to the question. What is a fractured world? Corinne, can we start with you please?  You're worried about defence and security. Keeps you up at night. Are we really living in a fractured world compared to other times in history? OK, well thank you Oliver, and thanks for inviting me to join you today. I think we're all fairly familiar with the cleavages that we're talking about here, whether they're economic, cultural, religious, technological, within and between societies. So I don't think that's new, but what is perhaps new is the scale and the pace of change. And I don't think we understand as well as we should the interplay between these different forces. So just to give one example, the Syrian civil war has been festering now. It's going into its eighth year. I think many of us learned that you ignore unpleasant parts of the world at your peril because of course by not stopping the civil war in Syria, we ended up having ISIL incubated in the region. They went out and attacked throughout Europe. They caused a lot of chaos. The threat may not have been as big as it was perceived, but it was certainly of concern to European countries and North America. And then separately, the Syrian civil war also of course causes massive migration crisis that we saw in 2015, 2016. So we have millions of people on the move, and if you're an agile politician, you can of course exploit the fear of terror, the fear of migrants. And so we saw a rise in many of these populist parties. Now, most people wouldn't point to the Syrian civil war as one major factor for some of the cleavages we have. They point to globalization, the haves, the have nots, cheap money, all sorts of other things. But I think we have to be mindful that there are larger forces at play, and we may not understand how they interact with each other. So I guess I would advocate a bit of caution before coming to too many conclusions. OK. In terms of the geopolitical side at the moment, in our fractured world today, you've mentioned the Middle East as well. What else worries you? What else keeps you up at night? Well, I mean, of course, Russia, and not necessarily a conventional war with Russia, but rather Russia's use of cyber misinformation. Of course, we're all worried about North Korea and the nuclear threat and potential showdown with the United States. Even in the Middle East, let's not forget that the U.S. is very concerned about the role Iran plays. And Tillerson and President Trump and others have been saying, you know, Iran won't be allowed to do what it is doing in the region. And what might that mean? Could that bring us to war? I mean, Jane can tell us more about that. It's in her backyard. So and then, of course, cyber. So there are geographic threats and then there are virtual threats as well. And cyber, interestingly, on the global risk report, the forum published last week had cyber as the fastest growing risk in the 30 risks that we monitor every year. And it's spread from two years ago being regionally and just in North America to every single region in the world now to see cyber as in the top five threats they face. So possibly overplayed now or still underplayed?  The threat is extraordinary. And of course it comes from individuals, criminals and states. It's really a mixture. As we are moving into more AI and more advanced forms of technology, I think we also have to be incredibly mindful about the impact of cyber attacks on those systems. If you have robots dealing with other robots and somehow they get hacked, that's also, of course, very concerning. Yeah, of course. And the Fourth Industrial Revolution is something which we're going to be hearing a lot about. And cyber indeed, we're going to be launching our own centre later this week, which we'll hear more about again. Jane, let's move over to you. Of course, you're from the United States. It's had its fair share of partisan politics of late. How is this contributing to the fractures that we're seeing? And maybe if you could talk in the context of the USA, but maybe if there's international relevance to the experiences that you're uniquely experiencing. Well, I think we had fractured US government on full display over the weekend when we stopped paying federal employees and stopped some important services like military testing because our Congress could not agree on funding the government. The good news is, it's open again as of late yesterday, but it could over the next crisis, which is, will there be a way for the so-called dreamers, those who've come to the US illegally at a young age and have never known the countries from which they came, will there be a fix for them to stay in the US? So we've seen that. I'm a recovering politician. I spent nine terms in the United States Congress before heading the Wilson Centre, which is a bastion of non-partisanship and a great relief to be part of. But I see US politics fractured over a long time as our political parties move further apart as our election system has a primary system where the most noise is made from the extreme left and the extreme right and candidates are pulled apart. There's little room in the center. I'm one of the last five remaining centrists on the planet Earth and I should be in a dinosaur museum. But here are some of the factors, and I don't think they just affect the US. You were asking about that. I think that power is diffused. It's now much more bottom up than top down. That makes it much harder for governments to exert authority over citizens. I think it is much easier to tear down governments than to stand up anything better. I think the Arab Spring. I think that the nation state, to the extent it's still relevant in a globalized economy, is increasingly a source of repression, not inclusion. Think about it. And I also think that tribalism has been inadequately understood in the world, and it's breaking out all over, not just in our political parties, but certainly in Syria, Iraq, countries that are barely countries, that are more, if they survive as countries, more confederations. I'm sure this is quite possibly a situation of fractured world that you're not witnessing in Asia. We all know Asia is growing, is outstripping the rest of the world in terms of growth, social living standards are on the rise. Is this a western construct, this idea of a fractured world? Yes. I have a simple theory. The world is fracturing, but I have a simple theory as to why the world is breaking up. Because we are actually passing through one of the greatest moments in world history. It's a completely new era is being born and the old era is collapsing every day. That's why the world looks fractured. Now, one important statistic to bear in mind is that from the year 1 to the year 1820 for 1800, the last 2,000 years, the two largest economies were always those of China and India. So it's only in the last 200 years that Europe took off and North America took off, but if you view the past 200 years of world history against the backdrop, the past 2,000 years of world history, the past 200 years have been a major historical aberration. Now, all aberrations come to a natural end, and therefore a price waterhouse Coupers has predicted that by 2050 or possibly earlier the number one economy in the world will be China, number two will be India, number three United States of America, number four Japan, number five Indonesia, four to the top five will be Asia. So it's a completely, how do you say, transformation away from the 19th and 20th century to the 21st century. The 21st century will bear no resemblance. By 2050 the world will look so different. You'll bear no resemblance whatsoever to the 19th and 20th centuries, and that's why you feel this sense of somehow the feeling loss. And I'm glad you mentioned the point about what the mood is like in Asia, because if you lived in Asia for 69 years as I have lived and I have lived through all kinds of wars, conflicts, depressions and so on and so forth, I have never seen the young people in Asia as optimistic as they are today. You just have to go to China, you go to India, and you see the remarkable amount of hope that these young people have. They don't share the pessimism that you find in the West, and many of them actually believe, and by the way just look at it objectively statistically, the living conditions of the one billion Chinese people have never been better than in human history. They've taken away, they've rescued 800 million people from absolute poverty. That's the largest transformation in the world that we have seen, so there's a lot of good news that's also coming as the world is fracturing, but there's absolutely no doubt that you need a rebalancing within East and West, within Asia and America and so on and so forth. That process of rebalancing will be painful, will be difficult and will create tensions. Jane, to what degree is this rise of Asia contributing to instability in the rise of populism in the United States and to a degree Europe as well, where things aren't going as well, let's be honest? Well, I agree things are not going as well, and I think that's a fascinating way to think about the problem. 200 years is a very short spot in history. 2000 or 4000 years is a better landscape, and the US, for all our noise and visibility, is not very old. I would say that the US has made some strategic mistakes in Asia. We would have a bigger role if we had not done that. I think abandoning TPP was a mistake early in the Trump administration, and I think a lot of hot rhetoric about North Korea is also a mistake. There's a risk of accidental nuclear war, which would be catastrophic for everybody, not just Asia. With respect to TPP, there is certainly the obvious truth, which is there is now the TPP-11, which is moving ahead without us, and China is filling a big vacuum created by our withdrawal from TPP. I would say that the US is losing influence in Asia for the wrong reasons, a lot of reasons that we have sadly inflicted on ourselves. Can I just add a footnote? I want to emphasise that you're right that the US is losing influence, but there are many countries in East Asia that still want the US to remain. As you know, many of the TPP countries actually went over backwards and made all kinds of economic sacrifices in an effort to try and anchor the United States in a very fundamental economic sense in East Asia. Of course, walking away, as you said, was a huge disaster, but the door is actually still open. I think that's the important thing to remember that it is not a case that there's a lot of anti-Americanism everywhere, that actually if America comes back and plays a constructive role, lots of doors would open to America. President Trump will speak here on Friday. I think he's still slated to speak. He has an opportunity to say that, which I think would be very well received. There is a new defense strategy released last week, and it has three prongs. One is building lethality for US defense. There is a lot of conversation there about cyber and about space. We haven't mentioned space vulnerability as a huge calamity that could happen. But that's one piece. The second piece is building alliances, and Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis knows very well that some of our new and best allies, or at least alignments, are with countries in Asia. If President Trump talks about that, I think that would be a huge plus. The third is rationalizing our defense spending. We are never going to have unlimited money for defense, so we should spend it more wisely away from legacy systems and on things like cyber defense, cyber offense, and protecting our assets in space. Can I ask a question to Q-Short, because one thing I'm struck is that your assumptions about where the world will go in the next 50 or so years don't consider the fact that a third of the world's population live right now in two countries, and those two countries may not stay intact. What are the implications for global security if India and China break up? We all just assume they're going to stay one country, but it's incredibly challenging without many people to do so. You're right. If China and India break up, the whole story of the return of Asia also breaks up.   Then, after that, after the Cultural Revolution, when Deng Xiaoping launched the Four Modernisations from 1978, and we are now celebrating the 40th anniversary of that, the Chinese have gone through 40 years of heaven. They have never seen as dramatic an improvement in the lives of the Chinese. And so, at a time when the Chinese have tasted in a very profound way how their lives have changed fundamentally, I think their desire to stay together and continue this path is very, very strong.  I go there regularly, I tell the same. By the way, the same story is also true of India. As you know, the British got nice India for a long time. The Indians suffered even in some ways quite much worse because as an Indian scholar, Ashish Nandi pointed out, that while the Indians were physically colonised until 1947, actually they remained mentally colonised for many decades after that. And the mental decolonisation I would say ended in the 80s and especially at the opening of the Indian economy in the 1990s. And today, if you go to India, the Indian entrepreneurs are amazingly confident about the future. And one amazing accident of history that has happened is, it should not have happened, that both China and India today have exceptionally strong leaders. Xi Jinping and Modi are off the charts in terms of the capability, drive, determination, everything you make. And I think the fundamental changes that both Xi and Modi will put in place in the next, I would say, five to ten years will keep them going easily to 2050. So, I would say, if you want to make a bet on China and India, and you won't go wrong. You're betting on China and India. You mentioned leaders and that's a really important point. Jane, you mentioned Paris Diffuse and it's too much bottom down. But people are voting for strong leaders and bottom up, bottom up. People are choosing strong leaders and we see that in lots of large countries around the world. So, why is that? People just like having, they like, they need strong leaders that we're moving towards and they offer security. I mean, I think that there's a lot of insecurity right now and so strong leaders give people reassurance. But strong leaders don't always deliver. So, I mean, I'm going back to the three points Jane raised in the national defense strategy. I mean, number two and number three, Trump is already not doing either of those. He's not building alliances. In fact, he's destroying alliances. He's not trying to rationalize defense spending. He went to Congress months ago to ask for $53 billion for defense. And without even saying what the strategy was, right? So, I mean, it's, you know, it's a good strategy. These are the right things to do on paper, just like the national security strategy that was released in December. But what he does in practice is very different. And so this is the concern I have about strong leaders or some strong leaders anyway. Not all of them. I mean, I think it's very different. I actually don't know how over time, I'm very interested in your longer horizons, how important political leadership is going to be. Except as a force for repression. And I'm not criticizing either of the leaders you mentioned. But I said that I think the nation state is increasingly shrinking and it doesn't provide pluralism anymore. It provides empowerment for the people who head the nation state. And I can mention a couple of countries, but I don't want to offend anyone unnecessarily. But I think the people who have more power first are the, you know, this atomized group of young people. I think the youth bulge around the world and I hope they're tuning in and learning more about this. But the other group are those who had the major tech companies who have basically unregulated power, certainly by governments, and incredible access for good or bad. And, you know, sadly we've learned that major, that a country like Russia can manipulate our technology base. And something I worry about, I think Karen said it too, is over time whether information will be so corrupted that we won't be able to rely on it at all. How do you feel about the nation state being in decline and becoming less relevant, less able to control the narrative and control the world affairs? People still need nation states to provide services, to provide defence, et cetera, et cetera. Well, I think it depends on what comes next. If we have global agreements on climate, for example, which doesn't respect barriers, and we have global agreements, we have some global approach to the incredible income divide, and on what to do with this mass migration that's affected the world, I think those may be better ways to deal with issues than individual nation states. The other thing is, you say defence. Well, I mean, if we could reduce the number of conflicts between nations, maybe we would put that money into something a lot more constructive than building barricades or walls. But Oliver, you do, you can also get paradoxical results. I agree the key word you use, Jane, is empowerment. And I would say definitely the digital world has empowered the individual in a very profound way. What you can do with your smartphone is amazing. You can go fishing off the coast of India, and in the past you could only go to one port to sell your fish, but now you look at your phone, you can know where the price of fish in three different ports, and you choose the port where the price of fish is higher. Is that empowerment? Now, in the case of China, what's surprising is that the Chinese have entered the digital world faster than anyone else. Cash is absolutely absolute in many Chinese cities. Is that worth more than Facebook? Walk around with your phone and you can get everything done in China. But that sense of empowerment has not in any way, in China at least, eroded the powers of the state. And that's where sometimes you've got to look at the cultural dimension in these things too. Because the Chinese actually, and this of course is a controversial statement, and even some Chinese would beat me up for saying this. But the sense I have is that the Chinese actually like to have a strong leader. By the way, I'm ethnically Indian. Indians are not so certain that we're having a strong leader. So that's the question, and since I live in both the Indian world and the Chinese world in Singapore, you can see the cultural differences, and they're going to play a very critical role in the 21st century. We're going to hear the word for a multi-conceptual world used quite a lot at this meeting. I have a feeling it's not just multi-polar, it's several poles with different values and different belief systems. I always groan internally at this stage in this session because it's getting on and we haven't very much time left. Quick scan of the room for questions. Gentleman in the second row please. Remind us where you're from. I know who you are. Yes, I'm Thomas Henricksson from the Danish Business News paper, a portion of Copenhagen. Just two questions. One question is that yesterday we came out with a report from IMF about extreme optimism actually. It was also the same measures we had from the PVC in their survey of business leaders. How does that relate to what you described today about the fractured world? That we're actually seeing strong growth at the same time as we're seeing a rise in these fractures, we're seeing more and more protectionism. So what is the relation between these fractures and the global economy? Just briefly to all of you also, if you could elaborate on the reason to being optimistic about India, which I think is one of the new things that I hear from Davos this year. Thank you. So Kishore, that one is strong and fractured. Is that for you? I think we can put an auto for that. Make a very important point. I mean, I said that Asia is doing very well and succeeding and all that, but the world order has got to change to adjust to the rise of Asia. And so that creates a process of fracturing. I mean, for example, you mentioned IMF, you can no longer have a rule that says to become the head of the IMF, you must be a European to become the head of the World Bank, you must be American. That rule has to go. I mean, how you disqualify 3.5 billion Asians from running IMF or World Bank, that's a process of fracturing. You've got to fracture the old order to create a new order, but the optimism is real. I mean, just maybe a quick word on protectionism, by the way. Everybody says in very sweepingly, protectionism is rising. Actually, protectionist sentiment is rising, but if you look at trade flows, trade flows haven't gone down. In fact, trade flows are still going up, and most economies are growing. So actually, the model of interdependence and interconnectivity, you look at the data, planes flying, tourists going, everything. The interconnectivity is still rising, and therefore in that sense, the old path of globalization is carrying on. Economic prosperity is not trickling down to everyone. Let's understand that. In fact, the top 1% is doing better and better and better, and the bottom 99%, I think this is true everywhere, is doing worse. That discontent, that anxiety is what fueled the election of Donald Trump in the United States. It's also fueled Brexit, so it's not just a US-only issue. I don't know how it affects Asia, because again, you said Asia culturally in many other ways is different. But I think it's something that this conference and others have to watch closely, because I think that calling this economic prosperity is perhaps a bit unfair. Calling it economic prosperity for the top is more accurate. I think if you listen to the headlines of our Global Risk Report last year, last week, and our inclusive development index, which we put out yesterday, the message from us as an institution is, let's not celebrate, let's not be cheering this good growth. It's going to be quality growth as well as volume, and that means a different set of measurements, not just GDP, but how do we actually raise living standards? How do we start measuring ourselves better? I think there are also new haves and new have nots, and so that shift is really counting for a lot of insecurity and discontent. If you look at Trump's election, the assumption by everyone was that it was blue-collar workers, it was out-of-work miners, et cetera, when in fact two-thirds of his supporters were in the upper half of the economy. There are lots of issues. I don't think we understand as well as we should. The tech revolution, I think Jane mentioned earlier, is accelerating so fast. Innovation is accelerating so fast. Yes, people are doing crazy things in India and China and America with their phones and with technology, but there are lots of negative ramifications that many people don't understand as well. And then we learn about them when this enormous crashes happen. And so we just need to be very mindful that innovation is accelerating, but it is a little bit out of all of our control to understand what it means. For me, that's a concern. Very, very quick short answer on India optimism from anybody in the panel that has any concern. You'll get a taste of it at 11.15 today when Prime Minister Modi speaks because what he brings to the table is a remarkable degree of energy and optimism. And as far as he's concerned, I mean his attitude is anything is possible and he will try anything. And last night he had a dinner and all the top CEOs of major multinational corporations went to have dinner with him because they said they're going to be part of the India story. And just to put it in a very simple way, if you're looking for a place to invest your money for a decent return over the next 10, 20 years, it's hard to beat India. I just want to close before we do and I'm keeping it slightly over. But I want to bring in a question from our audience. Heidi Arn from Los Angeles has written in. My question is, what do you feel is the one issue that needs to be addressed and resolved in our lifetime if you could choose only one? So, nice way to close this session on a fractured world. Can you choose one issue that really needs addressing? Climate change, I would choose climate change. You're not going to resolve it, but mitigate it at least. U.S.-China relationship, because if anything can bring the world down, you'll be the U.S. downtrend or disruption the U.S.-China relationship. I'm having a hard time. Empowerment of women, which I think is huge, where 50% of the talent pool but not 50% of the workforce or the political force is one and economic inclusiveness is the other. All topics will be covering in depth this week. Thank you very much for joining us. Thank you for joining us here in the room and thank you for joining us live online. This session is now over.


Hi, everyone, Mish Schneider here, Chief Strategist of MarketGauge.com, October 17, the end of the day. And of course, there's no shortage of news going around. So what we're going to try to do is quiet all that noise, focus on a few instruments, including obviously what you see in front of you, which is the dollar yen pair. But then we're going to move on to the SPX, a couple of big earnings reports this week taking a look at those stocks, and then have our final look, of course, at the futures markets with particularly oil and gold, the two most potentially impacted commodities as we see things progress, or at least stay lateral. We're not really sure yet as far as the Hamas-Israeli situation is concerned. So let's get started here right now with the chart of the USDJPY. Such an interesting chart, because really, since we've spoken about this last week, we mentioned that $148.50 was the number that it had to break below, so let me get right down to it. It breaks below this, well, $148.50, you can say $148.40, $148.40, $148.50, whatever. You know, it's a very, very small difference between the two. But you can see why I would think that that would be such an important area to hold for the dollar to remain strong or fail for the yen to start catching up. And especially if you follow the cursor to the left here, you can see the dotted line.  And then of course we go back to the last gas pie before it sold off, never took that point out again. And then of course had the major sell off in terms of the dollar. And of course we're looking at on November 2022, so a year ago. But right now, that hasn't happened yet. We've seen some intraday moves that have weakened the dollar, but it comes right back to in its favor. And of course we know why it's still a flight of safety. However, I still say that as a flight of safety, given everything that is going on, it's not really impressed me all that much, at least not yet. Over 107.50 in terms of the pure DXY, then I would start to think, okay, we're heading up to 110. However, just as this has not broken down, it hasn't exactly broken out either. Remember this one day, maybe the Bank of Japan intervened, maybe they didn't. This range is still intact. So we have to go back to the top of that range at 150.16. And we take that out, again we have to go to some history. Then it would look like 150.30, which is not that much higher. And of course the peak high from that day, which would be 151.91. So that would probably be the next area before we start to see some profit taking coming in. Now, of course we must look at momentum, which we said had a mean reversion. And we're still working that mean reversion. However, we're also holding the 50 day moving average. So on top of a rally here to prove further strength in the dollar, we would also have to see the momentum get back over all these levels or over the Bollinger Band. And then it's very possible that we'll start to see things get worse for the end and a lot better for the dollar. Okay, let's move on. So now we have to take a look at the big earnings for this week. And of course there'll be a few, and by the way, American Airlines, I believe it was, or Delta Airlines. One of the airlines just reported, obviously better than expected. But remember with earnings, before you get too bogged down, there's always the reaction, but you have to remember that they're also lagging indicators, not necessarily leading indicators, until we hear conference calls with CEOs that tell us what their expectation is going forward. And that of course means that we'll hear from Elon Musk for sure. This is Tesla, and we have two time frames we're looking at here. One of course is the monthly chart. So this is a 23 month, this is an 80 month. And I've talked a lot about the 80 month, particularly when it comes to small caps. When it comes to Tesla, you can see it had a perfect drunk to it. This was at the very beginning of 2023. And here we've had this rally where we've taken out the 23 month or the two year business cycle. But except for that one big month that we had in July before we got into that July calendar reset, which we'll talk about in a moment, we've really been just kind of hanging out around this 23 month moving average with a negative slope I might add. So that's the monthly basis. To me, the monthly basis suggests potentially lower. However, if we look at the daily chart, here's that six month calendar range. So I mentioned it got reset in July, it broke down under the six month calendar range low, had a brief visit above it here in September, tried hard to get through it so far. This month hasn't been able to. So when we look at those six month calendar ranges, we have to make an assumption that that means it's weak from a seasonal standpoint. However, we had this beautiful exhaustion gap bottom here. That was probably your best indicator right here to get back into it. And now it sat right today on its correction on the 50 day moving average. So to me, that makes it pretty easy for coming into or at least right after earnings. 250, let's mark that down as your pivotal area. We get above 250. I would say that we're gonna be looking at two, well, really basically 257. I would say somewhere between 257 and 257. 50 would be a good point to clear. And if it does that, then we're back looking at probably that six month calendar range low or 265. Of course, 250. We've had a series of higher lows. Here you go on every peak down. So there's one, there's two. And so far, I wouldn't exactly necessarily call this a peak low, but there's three. So that means just looking at today's range, if we break down under 247, which was the low of the day, and under 250 of course, then I would think that this is going to have some issues. And we could see 240 pretty quickly, maybe even down to 230. And I'm mentioning that to you because my gut is that Tesla will actually go down. Not necessarily forever, but at least in the near term and certainly as a reaction to earnings. And it is underperforming the spy. Here's our leadership indicator. And then on momentum, we have a bearish divergent because it's actually trading below the 50 day moving average, even though price is sitting on it. Okay, the other big earnings this week is Netflix. Now it's so interesting because Netflix has already been so beaten up. Clearly it had issues with the writer strike and then it's raised its subscription prices, its password sharing. I don't think they ever really successfully were able to bust that. And there was a whole host of things, but actually the writer strike is over. And as we're getting into a season where people might be home more, it's possible that Netflix will actually improve over time. But for right this moment in time, here's your monthly. So we had a death cross in the monthly chart, but yet it's sitting right on the 80 month moving average. So it broke down sharply here in 2022. And that would have been for this a poor business cycle, but instead it came back through and it even took out the 23 month. But it ran into all the resistance that it had here really going back into 2021, never was able to take out that 475, 480. So that's like the big, big overhead number. Now looking a little bit more near term here, you can see psychologically, anywhere from 350 down to 345, that should be your area of support. If it breaks that below, then I think we'll obviously see some issues and we'll look at the daily chart in the moment. But if it can hold 345 to 350 level, particularly if it gets its way back up over this 80 month, then it is possible that we'll actually see it move probably immediately up to 375 to 380. And then of course we'd be looking at 400 and so on. In terms of the daily chart, we've broken down in everything. By the way, look at your six month calendar range. So when I say you can have fake outs up and down, technically what it's really telling you is once you break that six month calendar range low, seasonally it's showing a lot of weakness. Look how weak it is relative to the benchmark of SPY. On the real motion indicator, we had a little bit of a mean reversion here. We got kind of a pop, but it didn't really go anywhere. Obviously we had a death cross here in the momentum indicator. So that was also another clue that it was gonna go lower. And now we're sort of skidding along here against the Bollinger band. Today's action was not that great. And so we have to kind of zoom out a little bit here. And to me, the most important area, besides what I just showed you in 345 on the monthly chart, is this 345 gap that it had back in May of 2023. So it has to hold 345. Otherwise, again, I think we can see 330, maybe even lower. Last lows that we had back here, which was in the early part of May was down at around 313. And of course on the flip side, we hold that 345. That gives you a nice level to be looking at. 355 would be another one, more immediate. And then I think we get through really 367. I would be looking at that 375 and beyond. So next we're gonna take a look at the SPX. This is the S&P 500 index. So clean, so amazingly clean here. This rally off the 200 day moving average right into the 50 day moving average. This is so good to know about charts because they behave themselves. Like I said, they quiet the noise. So again, makes our job kind of easy. We get through 440, then it looks 450 would be probably the next place that people would be looking. We don't get through 440, particularly with everything going on. And we start breaking down, right under where we kind of closed today, which is 4,373. Then I would say that's your pivotal number by the way. Above that, more friendly. Of course, we still have to get through that 440. Below that, more negative. And then of course we're starting to look at some support that will come in at around 4,340. Under that though, I think we could make a pretty good trip rather quickly to about 4,270. And of course, here's your 200 day moving average that comes in just above 4,200. And that's the number that everybody's looking at. So of course we'll see what happens there. We've held it so many times, you have to wonder what happens the next time we visit it. Now on the actual momentum indicator, also interesting because we have a bearish diversion. We've had a bearish divergence for a while in that this is under the 200 and under the 50. Here it's over the 200 and under the 50. And of course, even though we cleared the Bollinger Band here until we really get back over the moving averages, we cannot call this a strong momentum. So given what I just mentioned about that pivotal area, about 4,370. If this starts to wane in momentum along with that or even if volatility starts to pick up, then I would think the next area we'd be looking at at momentum is here. And if you look at where we were chart wise when the momentum was down here below this particular day was at 4,216. So there you go. To me, it doesn't have any reason to stop there the next time we visit. So that's as far as the SPX goes. What's so amazing to me about oil, people say, well, why isn't it at $100 already given all of the geopolitical stress? Well, there's a couple of reasons. One is we are still exporting oil here in the United States. Two is this talk of making a deal with Venezuela. Three is, like I said, right now Iran is not involved. Israel Hamas are not exactly oil rich nations. If Iran got involved, different picture. So again, let's quiet the noise and look at the chart. So you've got a 50 day moving average here that we're really basically using as a pivotal number. So we can call it 85, let's get more exact here, 85, 15. So let's say 85, 15 is really the number that we have to keep an eye on above positive, below negative. We get through that, of course, your next real big point would be over 88. We get back over 88, by the way. This is the December contract. And then I think we'll be looking at 90 pretty easily. You can see, if we just go back to these levels right here where there was great resistance, we cleared it for like intraday. We closed at it on this day, but we haven't really actually cleared or confirmed above it. So you gotta keep your eye really basically on 93.70. If we get through that 88 to me, that would be, like I said, the big number. And of course, the pivotal, just to give it to you again, would be about 85, 15. Do I get negative oil? Not really, not until we break down under the 200 day moving average. Lastly, let's take a look at gold. Here's another chart that we might say, oh gee, why isn't it trading higher? But remember that 1865, that was my number. So that's still my number in terms of bottom line support. But at this point now, we could probably raise that and say 1,900 is the area to hold. We break down under 1,900. I don't know what we can assume about that, but we can certainly make assumptions that at least that it's not as bullish as it is right now. And even though we had that dead cross here with the 50 underneath the 200, we're sitting right here at that 200. So that's 1,940.  And of course, if we can get through that 1,940, not only do I think these last couple of days inside this big bar that we made last week means a much bigger move higher. Yes, of course, we have to look at the classic areas of resistance, like 1,950 up to 1,970. I like 1,980. To me, that's the next big area to clear. So if we go from 1,940 to 1,980, we clear 1,980. I don't even see why 2,000 is all that important. I think we can go through 2,000 and continue on higher. Also from a geopolitical standpoint, that's probably not really good news. On the flip side, of course, we break down. Even we can even go tighter here. We can say under 1,920. Then we might be looking at a little bit more of a correction back down to that 1,900. So let's say above 1,920, friendly, above 1,940, definitely friendly, above 1,980, up we go. Below 1,940, eh, 1,920, yeah, a little bit more negative. Of course, and then under 1,900, all bets are off. Peace breaks out in the world. Okay, that's it for now. Thanks so much for watching. Hope this was helpful. Y'all have a great day and happy trading.


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