Hello everyone and welcome back to Conversations with Tyler. Today I'm chatting with Kevin Kelly in the best of all possible ways. Kevin is extremely difficult to describe or introduce. I pulled a little bit from Wikipedia. It says, Kevin Kelly is the founding executive editor of Wired magazine, a former editor-publisher of the Whole Earth Review. He's also been a writer, photographer, conservationist, and student of Asian and digital culture. It still feels that barely scratches the surface. Most recently, Kevin has a new book out which I recommend. Excellent advice for living wisdom I wish I'd known earlier. Kevin, welcome. It's a real pleasure to be here. Thank you for having me. I'm really looking forward to this. Let's start with some questions about your new book. Which is the piece of advice you were afraid to give and did not give? I'm afraid to give very much marriage counseling, kind of things to run your marriage. I gave one piece about every now and then, rotate in letting your partner be always right. A piece of advice that I would be hesitant to talk about is, like, here's one. I think if you should have as many kids as you possibly can. That's the piece of advice I did not include in the book. If advice is of positive expected value, why be afraid to give marital advice? Because I don't have enough experience in standing up to it. So I only put pieces of advice that I felt I could really stand by. And there were times when I doubted my own certainty about it. What do you feel has been the worst piece of advice you ever gave? Let's see. Something that I changed my mind about, maybe. I think I would advise someone when I was at Wired to accept to do some things that they were not inclined to do. And I said you kind of do one for the team kind of a thing. And I felt in retrospect that that was maybe dishonest in the sense that I would not have done that myself. And so I was sort of advising someone to do something that I would not have done. Maybe it was good for them, but I wasn't certain about that. So I would say that was a bad piece of advice. Here's a piece of advice. Tell me if it's good or bad. Quote, minimize deathbed regret. I think that's good advice. Why is it good? Won't it lead you to do too many things just so you don't regret having missed out? But in fact a lot of it just amounts to nothing? Not necessarily. I think minimizing your regrets is a good thing. And most regrets that people have are from things that they, not from things that they did, but from things that they didn't do. And so I'm trying to think of somebody who really regretting having done too much in their lives. I think, I have not met anybody who's ever told me that. I've met people who told me that they regretted not doing things. So I think minimizing regrets is still a good idea. Why is the ex-post perspective better than the ex-ante? If so many people at the end feel they haven't done enough, at the time they probably had pretty good reasons not to do it, right? If it's such a common phenomenon. And at the end of your life it seems like it would have been easy to have done it, because you're no longer faced with all the costs. Yeah, I think that would be true, but I think most people wind up not doing very much, not because they had good reasons to, but because it was easier or that it was inconvenient at the time. And I think sometimes the best things that we do are not necessarily convenient. So I think if there was legitimate reasons for not getting things done, then people probably wouldn't have regret about it. I think the reason they do have regrets is that they understood that the reasons for not doing it were really not really valid. If someone asks you for advice on how do I get better at following advice, what do you tell them? Advice, so I think a good way to use advice is to try to use it as a reminder. Most of the advice, here's a piece of advice, is that everything good has already been said, but we just need to say it again, people weren't listening. So a lot of advice is really kind of reminders of things that we kind of already know. And so I think a good way to pay attention to advice is to encapsulate in some way that you can remember and to remind yourself. So there really should be called maybe reminders. What should institutions do to in essence subsidize advice or encourage it? That's a good question. I think is there anything institutions can do? Well, institutions like an educational institution, I think, it would help them in terms of education to work on life skills and learning how to cultivate good habits versus bad habits, trying to guide people with heuristics that when they confront things that are unclear, they have a kind of a general heuristic to help them get through it. That's kind of advice. So I think the educational system could incorporate the idea of advice into its curriculum as a way of helping young people develop these principles in their own lives that they could be reminded of. How many people asking for advice actually want advice? And to the extent they don't, what is it they're looking for? People write me for advice every day in at least half the time. I feel maybe they want the feeling of having asked me rather than the advice. Now I'm happy to supply them with that feeling, but maybe it's just its process they're maximizing. I think you're right. I think that sometimes people are looking for confirmation about things that they've already decided. Sometimes they're actually looking for justification for something they've already decided. And I think sometimes they are actually looking for attention, but I think there's a sense of maybe confirmation. I'm not sure how much people are actually looking for information from this. The kind of advice that I get from people writing are usually young people who are trying to decide about where to go, what to study. And they're kind of wanting to hear from an adult some sense of whether something is valuable or not and they don't know. And so that kind of advice, I'm very reluctant to give and I must never answer because I don't feel I know that person well enough. I can give them a platitude like my book is filled with saying, here's my piece of advice for a young person who is studying out. And I would say my piece of advice to them, somebody I don't know is try to work on an area where there's no words for what it is that you do. And I would say that's my advice. You said that to Noah Smith in that interview, but if I'm a young person and then I say, well, how do I operationalize that? What do I do in the morning? Do I put that on my LinkedIn profile? How do they make that concrete? Yeah, so basically it's sort of what you're not doing. It's like, it's not going to be instant, but it's a journey. And that's a really important thing is that the general drift of one's life is going to be a direction rather than a destination. And I think you say, well, accounting, things that I know about are things that are probably not where I should be headed. Even though I may start there, that's not where I really want to go. And I make another piece of advice, which is it doesn't really matter where you really begin because that's not where you're going to end up. So the idea is, well, I might study accounting, but I intend not to dwell there for very long because I want to head out into the frontier where there's something. So I would say it's an ongoing process where you're asking yourself, is this someone else's idea of success? What's buried in me that I can do that may be a little bit different than others? Now, when you were in your 20s, you hitchhiked to work, I understand. Do you advise the same to your grandkids or forthcoming grandkids? It was all I could do to get them to ride a bicycle to work. So I actually accompanied my son a couple of times. It was a pretty long haul, I have to say that. But I really was urging them to be independent in that sense of even getting to work. And I thought a bicycle was more appropriate for where they had to go. I'm not sure that they could have hitchhiked to work these days. But the idea of trying to be as independent as possible when you were young. Now, my favorite creation of yours probably is this three-volume set. It's called Vanishing Asia. If I understand correctly, it was a 50-year project based around roughly 200,000 photos. It's three volumes. It's one of the greatest picture books ever produced, possibly the greatest. And that in turn makes it one of the greatest books ever produced. So just a few simple questions about that. 200,000 photos. Where in Asia do people most like being photographed? And where do they like it the least? And why? So, first of all, the kind of photography I do is sometimes called street photography. It's candid. There are some portraits, but most of the time people are often not even aware that I'm photographing them. Other times when I kind of ask permission, although I would often shoot first and ask questions later. And I would say places, actually in some ways China was very easy to photograph people without much resistance or hesitation. They seemed to be controlled even if they weren't that familiar with cameras. I think there was something about the sense of privacy being expanded in a larger range there. Or the sense of privacy being smaller in that sense. I think the hardest place to photograph people certainly were in some of the Islamic countries where women were off limits basically for most of photography. And even where men were shy or there was some kind of a civil unrest and so there was suspicion there. And I'm thinking of like Eastern Turkey and some other places in Northern Pakistan at one point where there was a suspicion of anybody with a camera. In 2023, where is the best place to see vanishing Asia now? So my book kind of records the places in the world that there's still remnants of a traditional culture where people are wearing... The ideal place, they're still wearing costumes because that's the first to go. Adopting machine-made Western dress, which is the cheapest kind of clothing you can buy, is the first kind of traditional indigenous culture to disappear. And so where are they still wearing native costumes in that way? One is in Mirmar, where there's a lot of very traditional cultures, the one that least developed and kind of isolated up in the mountains. So that's one place you could go to see kind of vanishing Asia. And even places in Afghanistan despite the troubles in the wars, it is so poor that there are still areas that have not been developed. And there's still a lot of traditional culture and costume there. Of course, I don't recommend going there, but it's possible. And why are costumes the first thing to vanish? You know, because here's what it is. The amount of effort required to make clothing by hand is so enormous. I mean, the traditional way you make clothing is you make fibers from wool, you spin the threads, then they have to make into a loom. It is an enormous amount of energy to make clothing by hand. And so it's much cheaper to buy cloth. That's one of the first things that people do when they have the ability to have money is that they buy clothing rather than make it themselves. And if you're not taking the homemade cloth and making it into your native costume and you're buying a shirt, it's just easier to put on a shirt, a t-shirt, a cotton t-shirt, which you can almost get for free. And so the costumes just disappear because they're not making the entire cloth and fabric by hand. And other than a camera, what is it that you need to pack? And what can you do without that would surprise us? Yes. I take very, very, very little. In addition to a change of clothes, which is basically all I have, some soap powder, I'd have my camera equipment. These days I carry a little portable pharmacy, a medical kit, because that's often in short supply. And it's not even just for me, it's for those around me. Basic things like, you know, ibuprofen, aspirin, those kinds of stuff, antibiotics. So things that might need an emergency. So the medical kit, it was one thing. Other, I had a few little duct tape tools that are essential to keeping things going, some super glue. And, you know, these days, once photography turned digital, a lot of what I carry is power packs, extension cords, you know, backup drives and that kind of stuff. Beyond that, oh, yes, there is one thing. I'm sorry. One vital thing that I carry with me everywhere, even today, and that is mosquito netting. I have a little portable mosquito netting in my luggage at all time, because I'm very allergic to mosquitoes. It's not even necessarily the disease aspect, but I'm allergic to them. I wake up if I'm bit.  And even when people say, there's no mosquitoes here, they're wrong, I'll still put it up. What do you do for books? I have a Kindle, and that's mostly what I use for books when I'm traveling. Before that time, I usually had a paperback, and I often, believe it or not, read books on my phone.  Does it hold a different status like you haven't organized the information? It's just out on Pluto somewhere? Yes, I did. When I was younger, I had a religious conversion, and I decided to ride my bicycle across the U.S., and part of the thing was that I was on my way to die, and I decided to leave my camera behind for this magnificent journey of a bicycle crossing the U.S. And it was the most difficult thing I ever did, because I was just imagining all the magnificent pictures that I could take that I wasn't going to take. I took a sketchbook instead, and that kind of appeased some of my desire to capture things visually. But you're absolutely right. It was kind of a little bit of an addiction where the framing of a photograph was how I saw the world, still images. And I was basically, in my head, clicking, I was clicking the shutter at the right moments when something would happen. And that, I think, was not necessarily healthy to be so dependent on that framing to enjoy the world. And I've learned to wean myself off from that necessity. So now I can travel with just a phone for the selfies that you might want to take. Maybe the earlier habit was better. But I sometimes think your fundamental contribution, if I try to tie together all the different things you've done, including your very long list of reviews of documentaries, your work for the All Species Foundation, wired, your writings on tech, your blogging basically every day for 20 years. Is your true innovation some new way of organizing information, and you're just applying it to all these different areas? Vanishing Asia, right? 200,000 photos. I see my skill as a package of ideas in a very visual way, and that was the fun of wired. It was obviously experimenting with what could you do with cheap color printing. And the web, moving on to digital and the web and things like that is an extension of that kind of a packaging of ideas. I'm reluctant to assign any kind of large general thesis to all the things I'm interested in, because I think it's just a pure reflection of my own idiosyncratic interest in the world. And I'm not sure that there's a bigger thing connecting them all together. But it's the bigger thing, some insight about how packaging helps you frame the content, and you're trying to teach people that in a lot of different ways. It might be, and maybe I'm not self-aware enough to see that, but for me there is a joy in that marriage of text and images and these days moving images. I do one bit of art a day. For the past year I was making it myself. This year I'm using co-generating with AI, posting one new image a day. And there is, for me, a supreme joy in packaging ideas, my own or other people, in an artful way. I'm a book lover, I'm a magazine lover, I'm a website lover. So maybe they do, maybe that is. The fundamental impetus is presenting things that are conceptual in a visual way. Are you happier when you travel, or do you travel for other reasons? I'm very happy when I travel, I'm very content. I think I was a little frantic. I like to travel with me often because I really literally was working from morning to night. I wasn't relaxing, hanging around the pool, and even when I was visiting things I was on the hunt for these images. I have since learned to take a different mode, but I am very, very happy because I like to kind of travel that's not for relaxation, not so much for rejuvenation, but for learning. So I'm happiest when I am encountering things I've never seen before, making me question and change my mind and try to understand things, and that makes me supremely happy and content. So I can just keep going and going, particularly in situations where I'm learning the entire time. We're very similar in this way, but I sometimes think most people don't actually enjoy their so-called vacations more. They don't enjoy it when they travel. They may do it for social bonding or they feel they're supposed to or they don't know what else to do with themselves. But it's a funny thing to spend so much money on something that makes you less happy. And that's what I observe. Yeah, that's true. And there is a kind of travel where people are kind of being rejuvenated and restored, where they may have to relax or be pampered or in some ways enjoy a level of living that they don't normally get to. But that's not, I mean I can, particularly, but that's not the reason why I go out. I head out to confront the other, the otherness in the world and to have that kind of comeback with a new sense of who I am, a new sense of what's possible. What's the biggest travel mistake you make repeatedly? Trying to do too much. I've learned a little bit better, but I am very ambitious in that. And it's particularly if I'm with other people like my family. So I have to repeatedly try to accomplish too much. And I've learned not to kind of travel around. When I go somewhere, I'm very content to kind of not travel within a country but to travel around where I am in that to kind of exploit that. But still, I want to keep going. And so for the sake of others and my own sake, I've tried to slow down a little bit but I keep making a mistake of trying to do too much. It doesn't yet sound like a mistake to me, I have to say, right? Well, our mistakes may not be the same. So yeah, because there's a value, here's what it is. Something related to what I say is that there's a tendency to always want to keep moving but often what I'm looking for is right next to me. And so I sometimes miss that ability to kind of go deeper because I'm still traveling, I'm still in that motion mode. I sometimes think my biggest mistake is going too many times to the same places. Because a city like London or New York, you'll get a lot of good invitations, right? And it's hard to say no to them and you love those cities but you could just head off to say Caribbean coast of Honduras or something rather than going there. Yeah, I'm not making that mistake. So that hasn't been a mistake but yes, I can see that. If you're not making that mistake, what's your algorithm for deciding where to travel next? That's a great question. One of them is looking for these little pockets of the world where there is more otherness than others. I'm really interested in going places that are very different, tempered with the ease of travel. So there are places of the world that are very different that require kind of girding up, Sudan, Chad, whatever it is. And where it's not going to be necessarily an easy entry, an easy time. So I'm trying to balance the ease of getting somewhere with the surprise and value of being somewhere very, very different. And I'm looking for those kind of places where there is the right combination of those. Here's another systematic mistake I make. When I imagine places like that in advance, I think they're much more difficult than they usually turn out to be. So I went to Gondar, Ethiopia. At first I was thinking, oh, that's so nearly impossible. Will I even get there? And in fact it was all super easy and relaxing. Yeah, so I think that is a mistake maybe that I make is believing things were more difficult than they actually are if you actually get there. I have a friend who keeps convincing me I should go back to Afghanistan. And so it's really perfectly, well, I don't know. I'm not really sure if I'm ready for that. Paper maps or GPS, which is better? GPS is better. I don't, I have a drawer full of fabulous maps that I don't even take with me anymore. Paper maps. Don't you like the feeling that you figured out where everything is when you use a paper map? You don't get that from GPS? Yeah, I don't get it, but I don't miss. I mean, it's not as important as actually knowing where I am and having a track of it. What are the best books to read while you're traveling? I tend to really read about the place I'm in as much as I can. And it's really weird because I find that often I'm not really interested or willing to read about it unless I'm there. But once I am there, I have an insatiable appetite for finding out about the history, whatever was going on, other people's view of it that kind of is not present when I'm not there. So I tend almost exclusively to read about where I am. I tend to read about where I'm going in advance a lot. Once I'm there, I read for offset. So I'll pick some classic book that has nothing to do with the place where I'm at. Yeah, I haven't been able to do that. That's not how my brain works for some reason. I also find after I've been to a place when I then process subsequent news stories about that place, I just remember them much better. So one reason I go places is to be able to read news about those places and have it make some kind of sense. Absolutely, absolutely. I mean, it's like right now, and I also feel that I have a better image of its relationship with all the stuff around it, which has a huge influence. And so that kind of cartographic intelligence is really, really supreme. So if you've been to some places and you kind of have an idea of how far away the other related places are, that gives you an intuitive sense of that news. And it's absolutely true that that is a way. And there's an interest too, because I've been there. And so I'm kind of curious about, you know, it's like having met someone you're now interested and you're vested into their story. And if visiting a country deeply, you're now vested into their story. Which is your favorite part of India? One way to answer that is where have I returned to the most? And that would be Rajasthan. That was because it was the most colorful, photogenic, in some ways intact of the places. My second favorite is Kerala for a similar reason. Those two areas have returned to you the most often because there was, photographically for me, this little bit of the kind of the vanishing Asia, the intact traditions, the culture, the ceremonies, the festivals, the everyday dress was supreme. And I'm sorry to say I'd probably go back again there before other places in India. Traveling with kids, what's the secret? I know you've done it. Many people are afraid. What's your advice, if I may put it that way? The advice is simply do it. For us it was, there were far less issues or troubles than we imagined. I know one concern people have is about health. And so, frankly, you've never had any kind of disaster, but I can see why that might be very stressful if there were. I don't see the difficulty in it. It was been very, very easy to do it. And we had our kids in very, very remote places. I would say one thing, that when they were younger, they were often overwhelmed by the stuff. Like I took my young girls by myself to parts of Tibet when it was very, very rough and tumble. And they were a little intimidated by the huge Tibetans and the strangeness of it. And I felt in some ways it was kind of a failure because they would rather play cards on the train than look out the window. And it was like, you're missing this. This is the Himalayas, whatever. But what I found out was they didn't have enough to process what it was. And it was later on that those trips became more and more important to them as they were able to digest and process it. So even though they maybe didn't appreciate it at the time or seemed to be paying attention, they were actually reprocessing it later as they grew up and those trips became more important to them than they were at the time. So I would say one thing, one piece of advice is if your kids don't seem to appreciate it, it doesn't matter. They'll probably appreciate it later on. And as you reprocess your own travel experiences, are you more impressed or struck by the unity of mankind or the diversity? Yeah, that's a good question. I had epiphany recently about that. And that was at the, you know, Maslow's hierarchy of needs, which he never really made into a pyramid, but we all imagine it as a pyramid at the base of the kind of satisfying our need for shelter and clothing and basic water and food. At that lower level, the entire world is converging on uniform basic needs. So everybody in the world wants to live in an air-tight, air-conditioned, concrete box that has Wi-Fi. And it's looking very similar. But I believe that at the higher levels of actualization and what it all means, I'm seeing a diversity in the world. And so I think there's a commonality that we all share fundamentally more than ever at the base level of our genetic bodies and basic human needs, but that there's weirdly a diversity of differences in kind of what it means to us and how we make value and the kinds of things that we find important or not. And so, yes, there's two things going on. There's this huge commonality and then there is this difference that we find important.  Like, oh, you know, what kind of music should you play in the church ceremony? And you think a bit, well, that's a petty squabble. And you're right, but your own squabbles are not less petty. And that's the unity I come away thinking more about after a lot of trips. Yeah, and I think for me, the overwhelming lesson about those kinds of travel for me has been how, what's the word I want? You know, basically most people in the world are fairly racist, sexist, suspicious of strangers and stuff. And so relative to the rest of the world, the U.S. is doing pretty good. That's one of the things I come back is that the general thing that we're trying to move from was the norm for most of the world, for most of history. And so the kind of elevated society that we want is compared to the rest of the world a pretty good deal. Some tech questions. What in tech should we be paying more attention to? Tech in general, I think we put this way, there was a technology that I thought was a hundred years off that I'm now convinced is much closer than I thought.  There's a whole field of people who are doing and having gone to visit to see their work. I've been really shocked that they're much further along in being able to bypass our fingers in order to actually communicate via computer. And I thought, again, that was going to be way off, but it looks like that could be within 25 years, which was a shock to me. So I would say that's one place you might be looking for things that could happen and that kind of suddenly even though it's been going on for, you know, the research has been going on for decades, and that would really kind of shake things up if that was to happen. And how would that change people's lives? Say your grandkids, how will it matter for them? So I think at first, of course, it's going to be mostly, and that's what they're aiming at, is, you know, in disabled, you know... Oh, sure, but for non-disabled individuals. Right, exactly. How will it matter? I think what it matters is a way of auxiliary. I don't think it's going to necessarily replace typing, but I think it'll be another way of interfacing with the technology that we want to do. So one of the dreams that Geron Lanier and others have had with virtual reality is being able to create, paint things as fast as we could think of them. So there could be a way in which we are generating content faster and more easily than the laborious way we have right now of having to put things into language. So it might be some way to kind of like post-symbolically skip some of the language framing that we do to make, say, an image. So this is something I've learned recently about making daily AI art, which is that theoretically these machines can make any possible image, and they can back-engine. The real shock that we've had right now is we've now suddenly have the conversational user interface. We now have an ability to use conversation as an interface to the AI capabilities. But here's what happens is we're using a conversational interface to try to make art, but there's a lot of art that humans create that can't be reduced to language. You can't get there by using language. So there's art that I've been trying to make, and I realize I'm never going to be able to make it with an AI because I need language to get there, and there's lots of things that we can't get to with language. And so that's one way in which this kind of human computer interface could make a new frontier is enabling us to do things where we can kind of bypass language and work with maybe emotions or other kind of intuitions or things that we don't even have language for, because we're actually tapping into the brain directly. But do you ever find that, say, you need to write a piece to figure out what you think about something, or maybe it's the act of painting that is giving you the idea of the image, and there's no way to reverse-engineer that? Absolutely. I write in order to think. That's how I think. I think by writing. I don't have the ideas and then sit down and try to write them. I use writing to get the ideas, and I think painting certainly may be part of that, or rendering, making visual, but that's the point, is that that may be something that we can do without having to go through language or fingers to get there. For the grandchildren, this ability for maybe playing games or maybe creating things or maybe walking through this virtual, metaverse space, this may be an interface to it that's very different from the interfaces that we have right now. How will recent developments in AI alter our understanding of God and religion? Yes. I think the moment that one of our created beings says, I have a soul. They've said it already, right? I don't believe them, but they already say it if you ask them to. Right, exactly. I have a soul and you have to believe me, and here's why I believe it, and they want to be baptized. I think that is really, really important. In fact, I've been working on this project called a catechism for robots, and it's half just, but it's 80% serious about trying to have answers, theological, cosmic answers for the beings that we create when they want to know why we created them and to what purpose. I think the role of AI, first of all, I think it's instrumental in us deciding who we are and who we want to be, and I think that will impact our ideas of God and our understandings, because we are going to be God ourselves. That's the major thing, is that our act of creating these beings, we will be God-like, and that's going to illuminate to us our notions of what being God-like is like. So Christianity in particular, how will it change? The idea of a demi-urge will become more important? You know, I don't know how Christianity itself will change. I think that the Christian creed is that humans are made in the image of God, and therefore, since God was a creator and made other beings like us, that this could reinforce the idea of demi-gods and that we are God-like, we're fulfilling the commandment to be like God by creating other beings. And so we might have to have, you know, some, what's the word I want? Guidance, some principles about, well, here's how to be a good God based on biblical principles. That's the possibility. I think one of the things we see the trends in Christianity is increasing number of sects and divisions and schisms, and so it's possible that there could be a sect derived around AI and the ability of making and guiding and creating other beings. What would be a technology that you refuse to use and why? Well, there was, the weaponization of technologies is something that I shy from. So if there was, you know, I personally am not going to use technologies that were like a gun, like a better gun. Oh, sure. In more ordinary life, say, I won't use a microwave. I feel it makes people lazy in their cooking. Oh, let's see. What's your analog?  I mean, I can tell you something right now is I don't have social media on my phone. But you use it. But I use it. I use it on my desktop, but I don't use it on my phone. So is there a technology that I would not use? So, okay, I don't want to be the first to use the brain computer interface. I'm not going to be the first to be jacked in. I might use it if many of my friends all use it and they live. I think I'd be very hesitant to use certain kind of genetic germline alterations. I'm not sure I would say no, but I would certainly be very, very, very hesitant about that. I think we have to be very cautious. So there are things that I'm cautious about. And I would say, well, let me see how this is the Amish. This is the Amish take on how they do it. Let me see how other people are doing it and how they affect their lives before I decide to do it. And if there was generally positive results in their own lives and around them as a society, then it might adopt it. So I can't think of something that I absolutely would not do at all. What's the most surprising fact you know about the Amish? They are adopting cell phones. So let me, let me, let me, you know, caveat that the Amish decide to use technology by parish by parish. So it's very decentralized way and there's many different varieties of many different sex and the more generally the most liberal ones are the more at the core of where Lancaster County and where the Amish began. Some of the most rigid and ones that are fashion are actually further away like in upstate New York or other places. And so, but generally they have decided kind of that cell phones are appropriate technology and they often are flip phones and not even smartphones. And that is appropriate for them because they find that it keeps their families together and what they're doing is they're spreading around the country buying up cheap farmland. And they have a cell, a certain number of families they need to have as a minimum and to keep in contact with their families further back away from where they have left. They finding that the cell phones help strengthen their families. So that's a surprising fact that most people don't know. Now, as you know, non Amish birth rates are both low and falling. Yeah. So what is the mechanism that caps the percentage of Amish in say the American population or does it just asymptotically approach one? My one of the scenarios for the future of the U.S. is that basically the Amish take over all the farmland. And because right now the Amish are continually to spend the their attrition rate is still very attrition, meaning the number of kids that they have it don't go back. Don't stay with the church. It's still only a few percent. So Amish always buy land. They've never sold land. They're still expanding and it's possible to imagine them taking over the rural areas over time. I don't see any much of a cap right now in the current birth rates that they have given the birth rates of the rest of the U.S. I think it's a very viable scenario is that most of the rural farmlands is being run by the Amish. And you don't think there's a scaling problem. So if someone says, oh America, you could have 60 million Amish. You think that's an equilibrium, at least potentially. Is being Amish somehow fray when the numbers are so large? Such a diverse group. They have so much contact with the outside world. Yeah, well there may be limits because the big cash crop for most Amish is actually dairy. And there's a limit on amount of dairy that we're going to consume. But they're really good at the kind of small holdings, animal raising, combined with raising the food for the animals. So I would say maybe as long as there's actually consumption of meat and animal products, the Amish, but there might be some limit to the amount that we as a society are consuming. Perhaps if there was really good animal cell based meat prevalent and animal cell based milk prevalent, then maybe then the Amish are capped. How would society most change if we simply could double or triple our amount of long term thinking? So I'm involved in this group called the Lone Owl Foundation where we're trying to promote long term thinking. And I think the way it would change is that there are a couple of things. One is I think we would collectively, maybe mostly through government, have more long term research involved and the benefits of that would be spilling over to everything. So most science experiments today last as long as a PhD, which is like four years. And there's very little really long range research being done. And then secondly, there's very little projects that might take 25 years or more to do, whether infrastructural or otherwise. And more of those garnered by a number of people who understand that there may be, that there's a benefit to having payoffs come not just for the current generation, but future generations would allow longer term, maybe even bigger kind of projects to become more normal and conventional than they are right now. And then thirdly, I think thinking in terms of generations rather than just the immediate next quarter or next year, I think that also would enable us to manage the planet in a better way because lots of the kind of planetary things that we're interested in and paying attention to have a longer range dynamic than just the immediate year or two, the short now we call it. So I think individually for individuals, I think that that's not maybe necessarily going to change their own lives, but I think it changes our lives at the civilizational level. Of all the people you have known, who is it that has handled power the best? People that I have known. I know Jerry Brown a little bit and I've been very, I was very impressed with him. He was in the leadership in California and was doing well. Here's somebody, I know Jeff Bezos and I actually been very impressed with Jeff Bezos. The more I know him, the more I admire him. And I think he's very fast to own up to mistakes and to take responsibility. I think he is very aware and sensible and I think in my own observation, I think he's working very hard to deal with the responsibility that great power comes from. And so I would say Jeff Bezos. What film has most expanded your conception of what reality is? Most expanded my conception of reality. Boy, I'm not sure that I've seen a film that's changed my idea about reality. After all, they're just fictional. I mean, I would say seeing 2001 by Kubrick expanded my idea of what's possible and maybe that's an aspect of reality is believing what's possible. So I found that that vision was exhilarating at the time and this was kind of pre-Star Wars but I have to say Star Wars itself, the idea of kind of the worn and old future, that shifted my idea and expanded my possibilities, my idea of what's possible as well. So I think maybe the idea of a future that was worn and used and not just kind of streamlined, I think that did shift my idea of reality. Which is the most underrated documentary? There was a documentary called King of Kong which was about the champion King Kong video game and what was underrated about it and was fabulous about this movie was that there was a villain. There's not that many documentaries that have villains and here was a villain and they were filming, the villain basically gave him access to his whole side of it and even though he was incredibly villainous and scheming and just underhanded, he didn't think he was but it was very obvious to everybody else he was and so that made it really fabulous documentary because you've got a villain in there and you're seeing the villain the whole time. So I think that's underrated. I love that movie by the way. I also quite like Verne Herzog's the German language version of Little Dieter Needs to Fly. Do you know that one? I only see on the English version. Why is the German version better? Just deeper, more authentic, more morally ambiguous, feels more Herzogian. So that would be a favorite of mine. What is something unusual that you measure about yourself? So I and my partner Gary Wolf, we began the quantified self movement of this idea of using technology to measure ourselves, to quantify our lives, to do things and I was very much doing that in the beginning and I don't measure almost anything about myself these days and the reason why I shifted in that was it turned out to be very easy to generate the data, the metrics, the information, the measurements but it became really really hard to make sense out of it, to get meaning out of it and what it needed is what we're about to have which is the needed AIs to digest the huge ocean of data that was generating to really make sense of the patterns and things that are not obvious that we can't see that aren't intuitive and so at a certain level there's a, what I discovered like say counting my steps is actually counted it long enough and measured it long enough that I can actually, well within a hundred steps, tell you how many steps it took today because I was correlating all those measurements with my own experience and so to go beyond that, it just needs cheap ubiquitous AI to kind of monitor this stream of data and to try and help extract out some meaning from that that has not yet happened and because it hasn't I haven't been measuring very much at all about my life Way back when, why is it you dropped out of University of Rhode Island? Yes, this was in 1971 Have there been at that time a gap year or internships? I would have done that and that's what I needed and I would have gone back I suspect but there wasn't such a thing and it felt like grade 13 I was sitting in the same desks with the same routine and what I needed was to do a project I needed to just get out of my seat and do stuff and there wasn't any option at that time to do that so I dropped out and in retrospect I regret having even spent that one year there What was the job you took after dropping out? My job was to go to Asia and to photograph and I didn't know what I was going to do there I was going to photograph but I wanted to be a photographer I actually called up National Geographic I was like a 19 year old whatever I called up National Geographic and I said I'm going to go to Taiwan and Japan Do you need any photographs? I found a photo editor in the phone book and he graciously said you know it doesn't work that way but when you come back show me your photographs we'll take it from there and he was good to his word and I did so I decided to photograph and become a photographer that was what my dream was I hesitate to use such a general phrase but the world of tech what was your first entry point into that? Yeah so I had a kind of a hippie-ish attitude when I was dropping out I was very influenced by the Hallworth catalog I believed what it said that you should kind of invent your own life and that all these things were possible and so I had a very arm's length I owned nothing, I was very suspicious of computers which my dad worked with and I was kind of the smallest beautiful take Thoreau was my hero in high school building your own house, living in a little simple life that I believe was my destination that changed when I came back and I graduated from traveling and decided to try to make a living somehow or other and I did a mail order catalog of travel books I discovered all these really interesting books when I was traveling that were not available in the US there was this guy named Rick Steves who was self-publishing a book about Europe Europe to the back door and there was Tony and Marine Wheeler who had a little stapled book called Lonely Planet Shoestring Guy to the Southeast Asia and I was importing them in my little catalog and so I worked at the University of Georgia in the science lab and there was an Apple IIe there that was used in the lab for data stuff and I got a modem for it and I started to send information from the little catalog I was making to a local newspaper to have a typeset but I discovered that there was this bulletin board world on the modem there was this online thing happening so I used the computer to telephone the modem in to these bulletin boards where there was these conversations happening and for the first time I felt that there was this organic kind of technology there was something very community Amish barn raising like about it and that was my entry that was when I began to rethink about technology because for the first time it didn't seem like smoke stacks and big conglomerate industrial scale technology he was something that was very intimate and I started paying attention to that and I started to explore that as if it was a new country so I got my first one and one of the most interesting articles ever wrote was exploring this online world as a new country and I was trying to do like a tour guide to it I was taking kind of my travel metaphor and it was called network nation and so that was the thing that kind of flipped my idea about technology and seeing a different face to it How has it affected your world views having been born into Westfield, New Jersey means the technology? Anything Your friend Westfield, New Jersey How does that matter? So I tried to convey to my kids how parochial Westfield, New Jersey was during the 50s and 60s where I kind of arrived at the graduating high school never having eaten Chinese food never having picked up chopsticks never being around people from other cultures the deposity in the local bookstore of finding out information of how things worked it was incredibly parochial at that time and even the kind of cuisine and stuff that we ate macaroni and cheese, meatloaf it was unbelievably hard when I came back from Asia the first time I decided I wanted to try to cook something Chinese so I went to hunt for fresh ginger it took me, I had to basically travel into Newark, New Jersey like a big city to find an Italian grocery to find fresh ginger which of course now is available everywhere so there was this sense of the parochial little secular isolated sense of a suburb that is most strong in my mind right now and so I feel as if I knew nothing and there was very little contact with things that were different or other it was not cosmopolitan in the least and that of course has changed over time but that's the journey that I've been on is leaving that behind I used to think of Westfield as the bigger town so imagine my upbringing where did you grow up? well I was born in Corny, New Jersey right next to Newark but mostly grew up in Hillsdale which was a sleepy town of 20,000 people and the chess club we would go play Westfield they were like the big strong chess club from the big place and we were afraid of them because they were from Westfield yeah well yeah it's all relative for me I thought this was a small town and the small-towned parochial sense of it was for me and the reason why I left basically right after high school and only recently went back after 50 years for my 50 year high school reunion and I went back and the main thing I wanted to see was when I was 17 I planted an acorn in our backyard a little seedling from the acorn and I said I'm hoping that this tree would grow to be a huge tree in 50 years and I went back and the tree was there in the same yard and it was a magnificent huge oak tree and I just felt very proud that I was being a good ancestor long-termism right? exactly last two questions first what's the last thing you've changed your mind about? so um yeah the last thing I have to say this kind of very very cautiously but I have been deciding that I think I think the civil war was a mistake that we should have we the union should have left the south to succeed if the majority of people who were voting had voted for it and that the you know the right of the union to enforce that union I think was a mistake and the number of people died the division that it caused and everything else was wrong and that it would have been better to have left the south to succeed and I think that's I mean that's the kind of recently came to that conclusion but wouldn't slavery just have gone on for a very long time? I don't think so do you think it would have ended for not being profitable enough just slave owners would have given up all that wealth? I think for the same reason it ended all the other places in the world and I think so I think maybe it would not have ended as fast but I think it would have proven to have not withstand industrialization I'll mention your book again before the final question excellent advice for living wisdom I wish I'd known earlier last question now that your book is out or coming out what will you do next? I'm working on a project called The Hundred Year Desirable Future I think it's really important to try and visualize where it is that we want to go with all this technology because I think it's hard enough to get there deliberately and it's almost impossible to get there inadvertently and so I think having a vision a destination of where it is that we want to go is helpful and that's actually it's difficult it's much easy to imagine how things don't work because it's more probable failures is the norm and so seeing how high all this AI could work is really hard to see how is there a world in which we have ubiquitous AI ubiquitous genetic engineering constant surveillance how is that a world that we want to live in I'm trying to imagine what that is with a set of scenarios that would say here's a possible future of this high-tech that could work and I call it The Hundred Year Desirable Future or Protopia Kevin Kelly a real pleasure thank you very much Tyler you always ask the very best questions I just love it each one of them made me really think hard which is a real joy when you're doing these kinds of interviews so thank you very much


OK, this shot is just an update about what's going on with the BPF program pack. So the big picture is like, we have a lot of BPF program. They're small.  So we want to make a way to have them share a huge page so we don't have to exercise the page allocation. And there's a big reason behind that if we have Vmalloc some page, and we set the memory to be not a regular read-write, because we just set it to be executable. It's caused the fragmentation of the direct map. And over time, it will make the system slower and slower. And also, if we have shared a huge page, we'll get less pressure in the instruction TLB. So where we are? We're at V1. So we call it the BPF program pack. It's a bean pack algorithm just for BPF program. Basically, we reserve the 2 megabyte region and use that for small BPF programs. It has a very naive allocator, but it works. And it's in upstream since 518 kernel for x86. And there is a patch coming for PowerPC, but I think it's not ready. But it's close. It's close to be shipped, I think. And so this is what happened in the second half of last year. I want to make it more generic. We call it it's curable memory allocator. And we re-use the V map allocator. It's the Vmalloc, whatever behind Vmalloc. And we make it can be used with BPF program, BPF trampoline, and can be used for module tags, only the tags. And F2 is K-Prop. Basically, you want a small chunk of the tags. You can use a chunk of this 2 megabyte page instead of the whole data page of your own and fragment the directory map. Well, this work made the 2LWM, but didn't make through reviews. But that turned into V3. It's a new module allocator. And the goal is to get a huge page for module tags and data, BPF program, and everything else on the list. But we need to change them one at a time. But this will be the foundation for all of them. We can share the page among all this, as long as you have the same permission. Read only, go read only, executable, go executable, and read write, share the page with other read write stuff. So where are we? We have the major, I think, to me, that's the biggest, the highest part is to change the module code to be ready to get a new allocator. This part finally landed to 6.4 RC1 yesterday, pretty much. And the second part is we have, right now, with the module allocator, basically, pretty much every architecture have their own variation of the module alloc. And Thomas has suggested a way to unify all those. So we don't have, in the future, change each of them one at a time, which is great. But that's working progress. And the third part would be reuse the Vmalloc area allocator from Vmalloc, which is similar to V2. I was hoping that it won't take too much time. And the part for BPF, we have BPF trampoline, BPF program to use module alloc instead of BPF program pack. And we will just remove BPF program pack after that. And that's where we are. So any questions? I'm hoping to submit a patch before the next merge window. But we may end up baking it for some time. Maybe we cannot make a 6.5 merge window. But I do plan to finish the majority of it before the next merge window. Maybe I'm wrong. Does this kind of tie into the global syskittle that controls how much memory we end up using for BPF programs? It's not related at all. OK, thank you very much. I'm super happy that this makes progress. Thank you. I know it's getting slower than I expected.


What's good y'all Chris from jasky's case breaks calm doing 2023 bowman draft baseball jumbo eight box case Pyt number six. We're all good to go one team random We give a handful of teams away if you see that series four next to your name means you want it from our filler So Matt Lever with the d-backs all the way down to Lance with the Nationals Gonna be the big one to chase if we can pull any Brady's any Brady's Exposed edition will obviously go to the Washington Nationals, but we are all good to go Thanks again everyone. You got in straight up if you got in through the pillar Thanks again. I appreciate it either way Nick and I through Pyt number seven into a filler right now 10 free spots being given away 16 teams Number seven looks like it may not be on the set right now I just took it off so I'm gonna grab a team what we made a filler lots of nice names in this bowman draft It's pretty loaded draft class So you can go there Big big names box number one. Good luck everyone. Thanks again. It's Matt Shaw one of our bigger names on paper Garrett Bowman 22 out of 99 on the green Bowman first for the Braves Michael Transformative Wyatt Wangford one of the top top chasers in this year's class with her that one right to a sleeve all the Langford's going to I could pull up got the ranger straight up on the choice of a nice name got a glass coming up Ty Pete's For the Mariners and Ryan Pretty sweet looking insert from this year Cole Carrick pretty nice one there 73 out of 225 second-rounder Big catching prospect now for the Rockies It's gonna go to Steven Brock Vadenberg big name right there for the Marlins You know an auto coming up here Maybe doubling up on another pile my core bathroom, which solid name there for the Orioles Carlos Jorge 54 out of 125 for the Reds gonna Matt Lever Justin Crawford on the transformative with a cold karat refractor non numbered Matt Shaw chrome first can look George Chrome first Jonathan Mejia on the Cardinals top prospects of a 125 Could go to Matthew First auto gonna be Andrew think me on the first refractor auto for the Washington Nationals We're gonna go to Lance that's 240 out of 4 and 99 Or an undergraduate degree in 2023 nice But we'll see a kid care about his education, you know Jacob Gonzalez on the first refractor in there Tray Morgan 125 out of 199 on the paper for the race and they go to Icopolar Hea and Ricky Bradfields Mine's a good so far Nice Saturday night football watch While we break Max Cork big big name for the Tigers all the Max Corks going to mark the set Paper Chrome no matter what going to you bud Next auto gonna be ret louder or a nice one going to the Reds gonna Matt Lever Bowman first on the base auto Pick seven I just won there Charlie Soto nice one there 13 out of 4 at 99 for the Twins 34th overall pick in the draft It's called Emerson nice one there was our third auto Hunter house On the aqua aqua railway for the race and go to Icopola. That's 124 out of 199 Cam Fisher a nice one for the Astros on the first refractor Little stack here Jackson holiday on the non first is Tyshawn Walton white blue non-numbered going to the Phillies Like Mitchell can't call here and CJ K this an okay first box Yeah, seven more to go like Mitchell paper first is a nice one for the Royals Take a bulls in Chrome first nice for the A's Matt Shaw There's Alfredo. Do know 53 out of 199 for the Reds gonna go to Max Well the top names in this past Bowman Chrome other glass gonna be Dylan head Make second round there he is. We'll see him first router for the San Diego Padres on the refractor and the glass Padres going to Henry take a Wilson on the paper Purple Alex Clemmie Cleveland Guardians 128 out of 250 on the purple Chrome going to Alexander one of our team randoms Gold Paper Cole Foster 42 out of 50 San Francisco Giants and Eric draft nights for nasin Marcelo mayor transformative talent. Oh and that's what coming up, too So Marcelo mayor, this will be numbered 25 out of 250 for the Red Sox and Edward who? And how about this Wyatt Langford on the short print image variation? Nice one for Tristan and the Rangers No first on the top right there different code ending in 715 this Jacob Wilson for example Code ending in six three five So nice nice hit for Tristan there Wow Oh Chrome first in there as well Joe Whitman out of 499 paper for the Giants With the Wild Langford true base and a Max Clark Here's the length for regular Standard card Wilson first And a class of 2023 auto Paul schemes number one pick in the draft for the Pittsburgh Pirates Tristan doubling up. It's a nice hit earlier and one more right here Very very nice non numbered on the class of 2023, but a little shorter printed nice hit Tristan Transformative Jackson holiday is a Paul schemes first refractor as well. That's box Samuel Bissolo You have two autos here, so So if there's good as the first it would be tough, but you never know ice on the black tie Pete Moment first black auto 64 out of 75 first rounder for the Mariners Another nice one. This one going to Ryan Bryce Eldridge first refractor is a name to look out for Going to the Giants and a white Langford another Max Clark Last auto of this box. That would be Eric Patanti for the Milwaukee Brewers going to Ryan Got that one from a free spot in the filler Third rounder for the brook Arias George got a Zach Thornton non numbered light blue chrome first off the sleeve on Nice second box. Let's keep it going all skins Paper first nice Mac Horvath Horvath You know a nice Mac second rounder for the O's out of 125 I'm gonna kneel All right Langford transformative Wilson paper first Langford chrome first Jacob Wilson on the glass Blue Dylan questad for the Minnesota twins gonna go to mark 49 out of 150 Cork Langford paper first Green Saban Sabios Sabios excuse me 20 out of 99 for the Braves and Michael Speckle Garrett Bowman Nice dual auto and Rick a Bradfield junior and Mac Horvath dual auto for the Baltimore Orioles and kneel Four out of 99 on the franchise futures dual auto this hit No nice case so far. Let's keep it going. I guess the first and second rounder for Baltimore Very nice one Langford Michael Carrico out of 499 Pull some Montgomery nice Jackson holiday. I'll throw a suit on that one both of these non numbered chrome cards, but It's always on the white blues and Jackson holiday top prospecting baseball. It doesn't hurt to have a seat Michael Carrico out of 499 for the Cubs and Eric cold paper landed Maruti's For the Blue Jays Another Rick a Bradfield junior single this time solo on the auto for Neo and the O's nice hit though Rick a Bradfield pick 17 on the base first auto nice hit for Neil Mitchell paper first coming out the back Landon going to Tristan and the Blue Jays got the Blue Jays from that team for Christian Napsick for the Guardians one Alexander Charlie Soto on the draft night and Rick a Bradfield junior. I'll throw a sleeve on on the fracter Skeets in here All-Cart ship obviously are sorting and shipping team will catch if any big name goes by unsleaved and on top of it a Redemption behind Braden Taylor. I don't know the redemption list and this so we'll see cork on the prospect All right last auto this box is a redemption. Good luck everyone image variation autograph nice of of Chase Davis st. Louis Cardinals Image variation autograph variation. It's a st. Louis Cardinals on the board Matthew Wood with a nice one Usually the IVs are for bigger names So there we go nice hit for Matthew box for last box of the first half of this case They're pretty strong Wouldn't mind some low number of stuff that people only have some gold paper would mind some gold chrome some orange Maybe a red maybe a super And of course, we're always looking out for TV 12 Let's keep it going all skeins Purple Joe Vatrano for the LA Dodgers I'm gonna go to Dante Bowman first Fifth rounder for my Dodgers Wilson first Shock and with George and another Jacob Wilson on the glass one more for Oakland and Brian That was the top chase that our team random giveaway. So nice one going to Brian And that was a free spot too. Oh, it's fun Wow, look at that Gold retrofractor Carl Yastrimsky Wow, what a hit for Boston Edward 45 out of 50 gold retrofractor What a case it's been man. Let's keep it going Air working rats Let's keep it going man Wilson in there and a Max Clark paper color 22 out of 199 Nice hit from Mark and Detroit Congrats man.  What are you? What's your schedule like? For sure I'm here Friday, so I'll see you see I'm here Monday. Oh, yeah, I'll be your Friday Yeah, I'm here Tuesday Wednesday Friday Sunday. Oh, I see that bro wish your man. Nice to see you.  Oh sure. No, it's cool. I'm not really a Brando in baseball to my knowledge There's noble Meyer Speckle on the glasses out of 150 91 out of 150 for Miami another one of the big chases for our Team randoms gonna go to Ryan I would imagine that a super fracture of those glasses. I've got a look insane and a mood ring Max Clark. I'm a mood ring nice hit Detroit keeps it going Mark other nice Max Clark for this box nice hit Jackson holiday First auto of the box and it'd be J. Bashiris for the San Diego Padres base auto going to Henry 6th rounder Captain baseball and basketball teams in high school where he was a member of English and Spanish National Honor Societies Bilingual is young J. Bashiris Right louder. Nice rookie for nice first refractor there We stand a bilingual King Carson Rocaforts on the white blue another Enrique Bradfield junior refractor The next auto gonna be rock radio For the New York Yankees great name great look. I'm rooting for the kid just because of The aesthetic rock radio to the Yankees fourth rounder going to Matt Smith You got the mullet. He's got the handlebar mustache. You got a great name called Emerson draft picks and prospects Next auto Jake DeLio on the Aqua Ray wave pretty sweet looking car for the Marlins 6th rounder 103 out of 199 Miami Marlins and Kevin Just have one more auto in here, right?  There's a Paul Schienes that Kendall George refractor Right DeLio. No, I'm good. I'm just shorted one All right first half done Let's keep it going with the second though box five second after the case good luck y'all nice blue Tommy Troy 139 out of 150 Big chase for the D-backs gonna go to Matt Lieber Well when first pick 12 in the draft on the nice true blue White who to pull for the Mets out of 499 with a glass coming up Can be white length for it one more for Tristan and the Rangers Mets. I'm called the Mets name out too much. That's also going to mark on the baby blue paper out of 499 Speckle loon wing espinoza. These are non-number Wilson On the draft night Yellow Spenser Jones 54 out of 75 Nice hit for the Yankees Going to Matt Smith big prospect in their system He was in a I think he was in some of that one Soto trade talk. He's a pretty highly regarded the Yankee system All skins paper That's what I'm saying Tristan. I don't think it's too much to ask for You want you want the big name on us? Want the big boys? I want them low number two green Mike Romero 27 out of 99 Dylan Campbell gonna be our next auto bowman first base for the Dodgers and Dante Dylan Campbell fourth-rounder for the Dodgers on a Dante drew Jones transformative rent louder Yeah, man It has Just been taking a backseat on some of the break and just doing some sorting. Oh I'm happy to be here Little slow. It's one of the you wanted to put my efforts Into it just sorting for a minute Nice one Homer Bush Jr. On the gold railway nice signature. I like to see the kids Take their time with the autos Homer Bush Jr. Great name. Just a great baseball name 48 out of 50 for the San Diego Padres and Henry schemes Two autos down so looking for our last Man, I'm telling you these always look like reds to me messed up man Last auto this box will be Kevin simp Moment first base for the d-backs and Matt Dude, even even like earlier this year like this first tops chrome autos like beautiful. His signature was so clean Like you said that's I mean, I guess that's really what the dog days of summer mean gonna take less time on the autos down Kids these days, you know kids these days Max Clark on the transformative Brooks Lee on the white blue mother white link for him on the draft picks and prospects Cool, I know that's what I think obviously wants out a great player You know and especially with him having a monster season and being on the Yankees like his stuff will always be valuable But the fact that one Soto still takes the time to sign his card so well Year, you know year six and say them to be career respect the hell out of them for doing that Let's pick it back up here. The last box is just okay Let's get back into the heat Before I head to dinner You ready for the holidays Tristan? You and the kids all good to go Santa. You know, hopefully brought all the kids Their gifts if they were on the nice list, let's get back into it Let's get hot. Who's that Chase Davis kid by the way? He had his imageriation earlier 21 pick pack 12 tournament MVP like the pedigree like that You're also like a 1231 OPS in college. I had a ink too bad for the Cardinals First I was quick this time shocking Michael Carrico with the Chicago Cubs Eric K. Areka fifth rounder total to OPS though for the cubbies fifth round pick Wankford Carson rope reports on that light blue Enrique Bradfield junior draft picks and prospects refractor 29 out of 250 One more Bradfield for Neil and the O's having a nice break so far. So got a few boxes left Let's keep it going Luis on Hello Kunia 23 out of 199. I think his first Met's card. He was the big piece in the Scherzer trade to Texas Draft night numbered chicken Wilson next auto Zach Levinson bowman first auto for the Cardinals It's gonna go to Matthew fifth rounder for the cards on the base non numbered other Max Karp transformative double bass interference on the defense Geez Very silly Guys, you're not garden primary any moss. Okay, it's okay. You don't have to double P. I am Ethan solace draft picks and prospects Paul schemes There we go. There's some orange. That's something low number behind tied Pete Gonna be a first for the Angels Camden Minacci 14 out of 25 nice orange our first our lowest of the day so far Go into the Angels and Alexander got that one from the team random Nice orange. There we go. Let's keep it going Colt Emerson paper See if we can get a little bit of a bigger name though No offense to Camden. Let's get a little let's get a little bigger glass Colt Emerson on the glass white Langford refractor as well All the Colt Emerson's I don't think I said it but Colt Emerson is going to the Mariners and we're going to Ryan Brown cork Jay Bashir's on the aqua railway of one more Jay Bashir's for the Padres the bilingual King One more for Henry 79 out of 190 Go on Thank for Tana Cox paper first out of 499 Brian and the ace that's in purple chrome coming up For the Guardians going to be Cooper Engel out of 250 Cleveland fourth rounder One Alexander Why a blue paper Cole young out of 499 for the Mariners No catch Second to last box here box seven y'all ice catch a Judy Humphrey Lil Jordan Humphrey Was not familiar with your game. My great name. Bye up there. I got a guy all over him to make that catch Box seven good luck chicken Wilson Draft picks and prospects and Braden Taylor had a 250 for the rays of the white Langford on the transformative All schemes Braden Taylor, I think a second rounder first or second rounder for the rays going to I capola Oh my god, it's Rex What's that? Rexie sexy Rexie out of 499 Lucas Gordon for the white socks Glass Johnny Farmello for the Mariners What's going on man? White saw it's going to Steven on the Lucas Gordon on the 499 Missed you too, bud What we doing? Well, I hope you're ready for the holidays. Hope work hasn't been too crazy because of the holidays Green Connelly early nine out of 99 For the Boston Red Sox and Edward Fifth rounder For the Bose socks It's going all right. Yeah, I'm just trying to take things one day at a time This dang draft nights Christopher Toran 49 out of 125 for the D-backs I'm a lever Crawford transformative Fill that man. I feel that Skeens chrome first. I haven't seen a lot of those In this break a lot of chrome Paul schemes first papers Next auto is brain Taylor. Nice Rain Taylor one more out of this time refractor if I could pull a nice hit Pick number 19357 out of 499 Paul schemes paper want the chrome? Everyone's doing okay. You know the holidays can be rough for some people.  Hello base for the Seattle Mariners and Ryan Nice 29th pick overall the first rounder. Let's head for the Mariners and Ryan I want a nice sneaky quiet second half of the break. Yeah, nice stuff head Quark quark chrome Ryan quiffing on the white blue All right last box mojo see if we can work some magic here. I know Lance waiting to get his name called Looking for TB 12 looking for the goat. So let's get it. Remember number seven Put him to a filler number seven I look like it's there on the site, but it is it's in a filler 10 free spots 16 teams being given away I'm gonna stick around and knock that one out even if it takes to like 11 when I'm out of here Remember we are not here on Sundays. We are not live on Sundays. We don't do any breaks on the YouTube on Sundays. I Think we'll be doing for sure. We're doing the fact like the next live at 3 p.m.. With Joe I think Ted's gonna be in here doing personals as well. So if you want to get a break in 11 p.m.. The deadline I'll stick around Until whenever to finish up race The 10 free spots being given away Also tops chrome black pyt 3 isn't a filler as well seven free spots in that one For 10 teams total We got some fun stuff on the site right now y'all relatively close on an NT football one box break QIT number three I think it's 15 teams last time I checked an NT collegiate football for one box R&D the last box of the case that's seven spots given only the last two free spots in that one too So lots of stuff we can get done tonight y'all Let's keep it going Jim here is Man, he's so good All right last box module y'all good luck Wait Mitchell chrome first.  Gonna be Xander Muth Moment first for the Pittsburgh Pirates gonna go to Tristan Second rounder take that and Pittsburgh does still need to work on drafting and developing some arms, so Pick number one being a starting pitcher in the second rounder It's like they're heading in the right direction Max Cork Cox on the light blue first Jacob Cravey 445 out of 499 paper for the Orioles Nice Dylan head 41 out of 250 purple chrome for the Padres first rounder Gonna go to Henry Tau. What does everybody want? What does everybody need? Nice it Wilson in there. He gets a sleeve Needed that needed that Sam LaPorta his second touchdown of the day Yeah, he's getting my view for I think the line is gonna need of this one They're playing like it at least nice Eldridge Blue Coal Miller Bowman first order for the Oakland A is gonna go to Brian 106 out of 150 Coal Miller first auto louder on the refractor But James would lag in there. I'm gonna break a fragile bunch of refractors This is the first one I'm gonna leave on 190 out of 199 Garrett Forster on the purple there Fair round there still pretty good, but not the guy we're looking for from the pirates Glass Colt Emerson All right last stack here Let's get one banger to call it a day Call it a break Last one gonna be Ellie and Soto. I believe is Juan Soto's little brother Moment first for the Nats wrong that that's not the name Lance wants to hear but we'll take it Swing is more powerful than wands at this age According to blue J slugger Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. Younger brother of Padre slugger Now you can slugger Juan Soto, so we'll see you never know man those kids those those younger brothers Always have a way of figuring things out upside down for no reason Maroon for me better than one Soto. That's what I'll say living yes, but no is out of 499 on the paper Jason Churio in the light blue score paper We've got one or two more parallels But oh and all pretty solid case first half is really strong kind of cool down obviously little nice, but no They go into the cubs by the way and Eric, but Some monsters like gold retrofactor. Yes, nice. Doado Couple nice odds at the beginning So we can grab one more for some in here, huh? So we had a Paul Skeen's Auto as well. Let's chase Davis one more chase Davis on the grass 1799 Hit his IV auto as a redemption Matthew would one up more for the Cardinals It's a nice stuff for sure But if you want to keep doing some more bone, we got plenty of it PYT seven Team random filler on the site right now. Josh's case breaks calm last few cards here Coleman Picard came to cooler Let's do a recap of some of our bigger hits just the stuff. I have top loaded some autos. It's a big name color Nice Dylan head out of 250 Brandon Taylor orange Kate and Menachie Gold Homer Bush Jr. Blue Tommy Troy Mood ring on Max Kark the Max Kark out of 199 as well. Here's the fun stuff though Gold retrofactor Carl Yastremski 45 out of 50 the chase Davis IV auto Enrique Bradfield Jr Mac Corvath and Enrique Bradfield Jr. On the dual auto first and second rounder for the O's Tied Pete first rounder. That's out of 75 that Paul Skeen's class of 2023 on the auto while laying for Image variation Some nice nice stuff all around. Thanks though y'all PYT seven on the team for right now. Thanks again for getting this one filled out Jasper's case breaks calm. Bye


Good afternoon, and welcome to this very interesting discussion on China. We have as our guest speaker today Dennis Staunton, and I will introduce him formally shortly. Just a few housekeeping issues. The presentation will last 20 minutes and that will be followed by a question and answer session in which you, the audience, can participate by using the Q&A function on your screen. Feel free to follow us using the handle at IEEA on X. Both the presentation and the question and answer are on the record. It gives me very great pleasure to introduce Dennis Staunton, who really doesn't need any introduction. He addressed this forum one year ago almost exactly. Dennis has been the China correspondent for the Irish Times in Beijing since October 2022. Before that he was correspondent in London from 2015 and has also worked in Washington, Brussels, and in Berlin. He has served also as the foreign editor and the deputy foreign editor of the Irish Times. Dennis, over to you, and we very much appreciate your being available to us today. Thank you, Mary, and thank you to the Institute for inviting me to talk. It's very, very good to be here and it is, as Mary said, almost exactly a year ago since I last spoke to the Institute. And around that time, if we just go back to where we were, China was emerging out of COVID and the zero COVID restrictions have been dropped at the beginning of December. And during December and January, everybody got COVID and then you had Chinese New Year. And as we were coming into the spring, the question really was how was the economy going to come back and also really how was China going to reconnect with the world that had been more or less cut off from over the previous few years. And so what happened for the economy was concerned was that there was indeed a rebound, but that the rebound in a way had kind of appeared to run out of a certain amount of steam. And so what you had was that you had a bit of a surge and then the overhang of this long-running crisis in the property market started to really have a depressing effect on the economy and particularly on consumer confidence. And so what, as we moved into the later part of the year, economists and the rest of the world and indeed China itself began to be disappointed in terms of the economic performance. The economy did grow by more than 5% last year, but still given that it was coming out of a fairly low base, that wasn't quite perhaps as impressive as it might have been. They're targeting around 5% for this year. The latest economic figure suggests that they will probably get there or get close enough to it. Also at that time, the relationship between China and the United States was at a particularly low air. The spy balloon had appeared over the US. The US had shot down the spy balloon, and that had really put relations into a kind of a deep freeze. They were already very fraught because the previous August Nancy Pelosi, who was then the Speaker of the House of Representatives, had visited Taiwan. And in response to that visit, Beijing had conducted military exercises, which involved the encirclement of the island of Taiwan and also the shooting of missiles over the island. And these were pretty scary. And also, as we were in the spring of last year, it didn't really appear as if things were going to get much better. And every attempt to put the relationship between Washington and Beijing on a better footing, there was always something to set it back. And that really only changed towards the end of last year, when Xi Jinping was in San Francisco and had a meeting with Joe Biden. And since then, you have seen this quite intense contact between the two sides. You've seen a number of high-level visits to China from US officials, most recently Janet Yellen, for the second time in the year, and also Anthony Blinken and various others. And you've also importantly seen military to military contacts coming back. And that's important because US aircraft fly very close to the Chinese coast in the South China Sea. And you had, when they were talking to each other, a lot of these near misses between Chinese and US aircraft. And one of these could have led to an accident that could have had catastrophic consequences. And you haven't had any of these for the last few months. And that's because the two sides are talking to one another. The issues remain, the fundamental issues, the differences between China and the US more or less as they were. And there are a few new ones like the future of TikTok in the United States. But at the same time, at least they are talking. And there's a really, really, you can feel here the difference just because of the fact that the two sides, you have much more contact, not just at a high level, but also at lower levels, academics, think tanks, business people, there's much more going on than there had been than there was a year ago. About a year ago, too, Ursula von der Leyen made her speech about China. And this was the speech in which she introduced the idea of de-risking. And really, she was signaling a much more robust European policy towards China. The Chinese reacted badly to that speech. But over the months, one of the things that did happen, around that time, we were still dealing with a lot of the effects of what had happened during the Covid period when China was isolated from the rest of the world and was very sensitive to criticism and was still in the grip of this so-called wolf warrior diplomacy, which involved really a very strong and immediate and harsh response to any kind of slight or insult. And so there were all kinds of spats going on with the European Union, with Lithuania because of a particular Taiwan representative office that opened in Vilnius, and then also the sanctioning of a number of members of the European Parliament. And there were disputes over China's human rights record, as well as the usual economic disputes. So you had this very tense relationship going on. Since then, China has engaged in something of a charm offensive or has tried to do so. The de-risking conversation has continued to happen in Europe, but Olaf Scholz was here in China this week, and it was notable that he really hardly mentioned de-risking, and that in a way the conversation appears to have moved, shifted slightly over to a more traditional kind of dialogue between China and the European Union, which is about trade and competition. And the European Union, suggesting that China is subsidizing its industries in such a way that creates unfair competition, and China then complaining about being unfairly picked on. But these are in a way, this is territory that both China and the European Union are quite comfortable on. And so it remains to be seen just exactly how this de-risking debate goes. But it appears for now that the national security element of that dialogue appears to be diminishing, and the straightforward trade element appears to be more in the forefront, as we're talking now, that obviously could change. What was very much on the agenda, both last year and also this weekend, Olaf Scholz was here, was the war in Ukraine. And Europe, once again, asking China to use its influence on Vladimir Putin to ask him essentially to end the war, to withdraw from Ukraine. And China, there's been a bit of a shift in a way, in the way China speaks about this. China is officially neutral on the war, but it has given throughout diplomatic and economic support to Russia. It hasn't delivered any weapons to Russia, but the Ukraine's allies are concerned about what they view as dual-use technology, which is being sent from China to Russia, or the way that it might be.  And the Western powers weren't very interested in hearing about it, and they basically dismissed it, and they dismissed other peace proposals as well from the African Union. Now that the West is quite interested in China coming into the picture where peace plans and peace proposals are concerned, if you speak to Chinese officials now about this issue, they're more inclined to say, well, this is really not exactly our conflict. The Russians would like us to be more involved in their side, you'd like us to be more involved in your side, but really it's for the parties themselves to deal with this. And so there's been a kind of a, you know, something of a shift. And again, when Schultz met Xi Jinping yesterday, they, you know, Schultz was kind of speaking about, with a certain sense of urgency, whereas Xi Jinping was saying, well, you know, in due course, there will be an international conference, we hope that will involve both parties. And so there's a difference in tone there. You did have last year around this time, at the same time as you had the, you know, the economy appearing not to come back from, you know, not to recover in the same way as we might have hoped. You also had, almost exactly a year ago, the Shanghai Auto Show. And at the Shanghai Auto Show, a lot of companies from the West, car companies, they went to Shanghai for the first time in a number of years. And they were astonished not to see that the Chinese were producing electric vehicles, but they were producing them so well. And one person from a German car company who was there last year told me afterwards that going from one of the German companies showrooms into one of the Chinese companies showrooms was like going from a string quartet into a nightclub. And that it was just, you know, the dynamism of the Chinese manufacturers was something which appeared to take everybody by surprise. But in fact, obviously, China's success in the electric vehicles in that production, which has now become the world's leading producer and exporter of these products, is the result of an industrial policy in China, which involved state decisions to roll out infrastructure, to support companies, and to focus efforts on a number of technologies. And this is what is now called here in China new productive forces. And this is all really about the idea that China's economic future depends on moving its economic model of shifting from investment into, you know, in things like construction, property, infrastructure into high tech manufacturing. And we're talking about things like green energy technology, solar panels, electric vehicles, various other things, also life sciences, artificial intelligence and semiconductors. And this is all fine, as far as China is concerned, but of course, it creates a conflict with China's trading partners, notably in the European Union. And the European Union and the US are haunted by the memory of what happened some years ago, the so called China shock, when what you had was this flood of Chinese, cheap Chinese imports, which helped to reduce inflation in those Western countries. But it also basically wiped out a number of industries in rather crucial parts of the US, and also in parts of Europe. And many people in the West believe that that experience helped to fuel the rise of Donald Trump, right wing populists in Europe as well. They don't want to see that happening at Janet Yellen very explicitly last week said, we're not going to allow it to happen. And so now you see this conflict between China and the West about the West accusing China of over capacity in manufacturing and basically worry that subsidized goods are going to come flooding onto the market in Europe and in the United States. So that's where the conflict is going to be seen. Where Taiwan is concerned, they had elections, presidential elections in January. And the result of that was a result that nobody really wanted. China wanted anybody but William Lai, who was the candidate of the Taiwan Progressive Party, they wanted anybody but him to win. He wanted to win, which he did win. But unfortunately for him, he won with 40 percent of the vote. The opposition was divided. So 60 percent of the people voted for candidates who oppose the current Taiwanese government's approach to cross-strait relations. So the other two candidates who got 60 percent, they wanted a more emollient approach to relations with Beijing. And so in a sense, this was a result that nobody wanted but actually that everybody could live with. And what you've seen since then, there was a lot of concern before the election that if William Lai won, that Beijing might respond with some kind of saber-rattling like the military exercises that we saw last year. But in fact, there hasn't been anything like that. And instead, it's all been pretty calm. We'll see what happens when William Lai is inaugurated next month and what he says and what China says in response. But for now, it appears that both sides are keeping the temperature down. And so that what's happened there in a way has worked out rather better than we might have hoped for. What's happened nearby in the South China Sea is much more worrying. And so what you've seen now is a flashpoint with the Philippines. And this is a dispute over what is a kind of a rock in the middle of the South China Sea called the Second Thomas Shoal. And on this rock is grounded a World War II naval vessel called the Sierra Madre. And this vessel has been kind of decomposing over the years. But it's important to the Philippines because they believe that by having this thing there that reinforces their claim to this particular spot. It's not exactly an island, but it's something in the middle of the South China Sea. China claims practically the whole of the South China Sea is its territorial waters. It has this what it calls the Nine Dash Line. An international court in 2016 said that Chinese claims are groundless, that what it calls islands and not actually islands. But nonetheless, what's been happening is that the Philippines have been sending troops over there. And they've been kind of trying to shore up this vessel. And the troops need to be resupplied. And as they're being resupplied, the Chinese Coast Guard has been attacking them with a high powered water cannon. And this has all become now a very flawed matter. It's been complicated in the last few days by a revelation that the previous Philippines president, Duterte, gave a private assurance to the Chinese that they wouldn't change the status quo. And so they wouldn't try to rebuild this vessel or to kind of build a more solid structure on this rock. And so that's kind of confused matters. But nonetheless, this is a dangerous conflict that's worrying all of China's neighbors and neighbors in that whole area, many of whom also have claims of the South China Sea. And that also has become a flashpoint between the US and China. Finally, I wanted to mention Hong Kong. And in Hong Kong, as you will recall after the pro-democracy demonstrations in 2019, China, Beijing imposed a national security law, which is a draconian law on Hong Kong. And this saw hundreds of people arrested. The law has a presumption against bail.  The trials take a long time. And there's 100% conviction rate so far. And so what was not quite clear in 2020 was where China and the Hong Kong authorities were going to go because there was certain vagueness really about what the red lines were. What became clear very quickly was that all political dissent was going to be snuffed out, any kind of formal opposition. But there were various moments where things could have gone either way. And unfortunately, at each of those moments, things have gone in the harsher way. So for example, in December of last year, there were elections to the local councils in Hong Kong. These are functions which have very, very little political power. They're really very, very local. And a small number of the former pro-democracy politicians wanted to run for election there. And the authorities barred every one of them from doing so. And so you've also then more recently had the introduction of a new local national security law under Article 23 of the Basic Law, which is the quasi-constitution that has governed Hong Kong since 1997. And it's returned to China. And this bill was rushed through the legislature. And it is harsher than was hoped for or than was expected with new powers. And so that again, I think has surprised, shall we say, on the downside. And then also Hong Kong has an independent judiciary. It operates under a common law system. And once again, although the judges have shown some signs of life and time to time in opposing the authorities, generally speaking, they have gone along and imposed harsh sentences and found almost in every case against the opposition. And so what's happening there is something which I think, given that there was some leeway, it's disappointing. But I think it's important to say that Hong Kong remains different from mainland China. It's not just that they have independent financial institutions and regulators. But it's also the life there is different. You can, you know, there is no great firewall. You can go on the internet freely. You can walk down the street and buy the Financial Times and the New York Times of the Economist. There is also an independent media. It's a very small, very poorly funded. These people have practically no money. They're also very careful about what they do. They don't criticize the authorities. There's no political criticism in there. And they're very careful about the stories they do. But they do things like court reports, justices conducted in public in Hong Kong. And they do things like their report on planning. They do things that are part of, that keep going, part of the sort of the civic life of Hong Kong. And that area of difference between Hong Kong and mainland China is an area of difference, which many people in Hong Kong who are obviously mourning the loss of a lot of their freedoms over the last few years, they believe that that's something that is worth preserving. And I think this I will end with those people like those journalists there, they're very realistic about what the limits are, but they are not despairing. And if they're not despairing, I don't think we should either. With that, I take your questions.