Hi everyone, welcome to this talk. My name is John. I'm an open source engineer at Hackage's and During the next 25 minutes. We are going to talk about the web In my opinion the web is an amazing platform and I think that we can all agree on One fact is that it the web has evolved a lot since its beginning We went from sending simple Text over the wire to providing a full experience to the end user and I think one key component within the web that has brought this experience is JavaScript, right But so JavaScript built in 1985 shipped within the Netscape browser was aiming to provide some dynamism to the static content of the web but What we were trying to achieve with JavaScript that time it's a much more It's a much smaller part of what we are doing with it now So the way that that it was executed at that time is quite different from the way it is executed nowadays So at that time JavaScript was interpreted, okay? And take a closer look at what interpretation is is for example here We have in the middle our interpreter JavaScript interpreter, okay? And on the right side who have kind of like the very metal machine the CPU on the left We have a bunch of JavaScript code lines calling add functions passing numbers and when the execution hits the first line The line is sent to the interpreter the interpreter does his job, okay? Evaluate both parameters their type what we are trying to achieve and then output some machine code that gets directly executed by the CPU next line same process again Evaluate in both parameters same what kind of types they are and then output in some machine code and the thing here that this mechanism worked until kind of 2005 when big JavaScript apps started to come onto the scene and one example is Google Maps which which browser started to hit kind of like a performance issue with those JavaScript app and why because at the end Doing a simple addition in JavaScript is not trivial you have to check both operands types and regarding their Their regarding the evaluation you will output some different code So you cannot really count on the language it by itself you have to wait until runtime So one of the mechanism that Browsers applied to solve this issue. It's a very well known mechanism Which is called just in time compilation and if we take back the same example, we still have both Items there, but you have a third one a third component within the system, which is the just in time compiler, okay? We take again the same lines first line is sent to the interpreter It does the same evaluates interpret it outputs some machine code and that's it second line Same process Evaluate it both parameters and then output some machine code, but this time The interpreter has monitor the code and the execution and it has some feedback about the execution So it can see that okay, we try to Execute twice the same function passing twice numbers. Why don't so? It marks that function as hot and then pass it to the just in time compiler to compile it and Output some the same machine code that it was previously put it store it somewhere else somewhere in memory and Lock that memory region so we cannot override Third line comes to execute it and then there the interpreter say okay. I know this ad function It's not the first time. I just ask the just in time compiler to comp to compile it and put it somewhere in memory, so All steel are still both parameters Numbers yes, okay, you can then take the one that I just compile it and directly execute it and if you see this here what we have done what the the engine have done is just that he made a shortcut for the execution of a function and we call that the fast path, okay and That's when JavaScript gave us his top speed and Just to show you the difference between non-jitted code so non-jitted JavaScript and jitter JavaScript I just launched an instance of Chrome Disabling the optimization of JavaScript and you can see for eight robot dancer It's kind of laggy on the left side, but on the right side It's kind of going very well. You can even I think increase until 15 and it's still okay, but then Well, we had the performance issue with JavaScript With interpretation we compile it and it works pretty well. Why don't we why do we want to go further? Well, the thing is that I Didn't tell you the whole story If we go back to example and they this time I'm sending instead of two numbers one string and one number The interpreter will try again to say okay. I know this function. I just told it somewhere, but Although are still those two parameters numbers nope So what he's done is doing is that he is going to fall back to interpretation and Erase the compile version that he had Yeah, super animation So then what's the problem with JavaScript? Well, I mean not the problem. I don't want to fend it. I'm sorry I'm sorry Then what's the thing what JavaScript is lacking to be optimized before execution? Well JavaScript is just lacking predictability if you take the same version the same I mean two versions of a same code one written in C and another in JavaScript. You can clearly see that in C The language provides some hints to the compiler so he can optimize code before runtime When if you look at the JavaScript side, there's not much going on there Even the number of parameters are not really fixed so you can pass more than two if you want So if we quickly recap what we learn here. Oh, no, maybe what we have to so we We can optimize JavaScript and it's cool and you can have really good performance with it's not a problem But the thing is that JavaScript is not predictable. So Industry browsers have tried to solve this problem. I Mean to solve that to fix this and they try to run some more predictable code within the browser And one of the initiatives is for example portable native clients from Google which was to to run some Some C++ modules within the browsers sandbox it so it's secured But it isn't really took off After that Mozilla came with an idea of just taking a subset of JavaScript, which was more predictable With and they call it they called they call it as enter JS, but it wasn't enough because it was still JavaScript at the end and in 2015 browsers reunited and Tried to come up with something that they could agree on to Go a step further to push the limit of the web and that's where web assembly came onto the scene And what is web assembly if we take quickly just the the text from the official page Which is quite dense. I'm gonna read it So web assembly abbreviated wasm is a binary instruction format for a stack-based virtual machine Wasm is designed as a portable target for compilation of high-level languages like C C++ Rust Enabling deployment on the web for client and server application a lot of things that We are going to try to read it again, but step by step So what assembly abbreviated wasn't is a binary instruction format So it just means that it is set of instruction and coded in a binary way. So it's quite efficient to load it Design as a portable target for compilation. So two things here Portable it means that web assembly is not just designed for the web but it's also designed to run outside the web on all the platforms and Target for compilation means that you don't have necessary to write web assembly. It's quite low level You are more kind to you're more likely to write in higher-level languages like C C++ Rust Go C sharp Java whatever and you compile to web assembly So how the process goes simply you take a bunch of file C C++ here I just okay. I mentioned just C and C++ you compile it to intermediate intermediate a representation It's almost always LLVM. I will skip the details about LLVM Okay, but normally this part is quite hidden from the developer perspective Okay, and then you compile as a backend compilation to a Simple.wasm in this case is the name but a wasm module Okay, and with which tool for example one of the main tool to compile to web assembly is in scripting Which first mission mainly mission is to provide to bring other languages on the platform the web So then how do you consume this simple that wasn't well You fetch the resource I think you all know this you fetch the resource and then you just call the JavaScript API Web assembly APIs that are nowadays available in all all the browsers the major browsers and then you receive You receive wasm module which you can call function on it Here exported from and those function were originally written in another language So what all the goal of web assembly? Well, I simply wants to be performant run at nearly native speed After that what assembly wants to be portable. Okay, so not only running on the web, but also running in all the platforms and Secure secure by default. It's one of the main concern of web assembly being more secure than JavaScript performance well I might disappoint you, but JavaScript is not I mean sorry web assembly is not So much faster some are more faster than super optimized Compiled JavaScript at the end they quite run nearly at native space space speed. Sorry, but the thing is that JavaScript I Mean web assembly will more likely to stay on the fast path when you have an optimized version of it Well, JavaScript will kind of deoptimize easily and falls back to interpretation and for to illustrate my point here you have A multiple just diagram showing multiple execution of the same code in JavaScript and then the same code in web assembly in blue What was in this faster? Okay, but the point here is to show that for multiple execution of the same code in JavaScript You don't have you cannot predict the performance while in what assembly is quite the almost the same Also was can be decoded validated and compile in the fast single pass Equally with either just in time or ahead of time compilation if you check how JavaScript is handled within a browser You first fetch the whole resource and then you parse it compile it and execute it All that in the main thread. There are some exceptions. Okay, not everything happens sometimes in the main thread But that's kind of the regular way of doing it But browsers handle web assembly in another way So while fetching the packets while fetching the resource the wasn't modules The browser will directly compile the bytes dark on the fly and when it and when it when it's done It will execute on the main thread and the compilation doesn't happen on the main thread say does not block users Just to show you the difference of performance. You have 30 robot dancer Here and you can see that in JavaScript is quite laggy when you switch the execution to web assembly It goes back to normal and you can even increase the number and I'm going I go there until I think 120 but you will not see the difference because the screen is too short. Yeah Okay, so portable at the beginning was was meant the first version of was made was meant to to at least Works work on the browser so the way of execute was was to Provide some GS glue code that when a wasn't module was trying to do something that the browser couldn't handle at least the JavaScript will handle the call and Simulate something emulate something for example calling a file system. You cannot call a file system within the browser so when folks try to run wasm outside of the of the browser what they tried to do is just to run the existing was a module outside the browser and So there were kind of emulating GS glue GS glue code that was emulating a system interface So it's not really the well the most optimized way to do it. So a need of As much as wasm is a language for a conceptual virtual machine. It needed a System interface a standard and standardized system interface for a conceptual operating system That's when web assembly system interface claim on to the scene It's just a specification that runs that that what assembly modules can call To make some system API school kind of it's just an operating system. It's not it's it Let's say it's kind of like a posix way of doing So then the diagram becomes like that you have the non browser or browser runtime that Implement wasi and provide expose some system interface API that wasn't modules can interact with I Wanted to show you one tweet of Solomon Hikes, which is the from the founder of Docker That's that is saying that if wasm plus was existing 2008 we wouldn't have to create a docker That's how important it is it is web assembly on the server is the future of computing a standardized System interface was the missing link. Let's hope wasi is up to the task Also folks from clever cloud a French company that is I think here. Maybe you have met them Are running function as a service in web assembly directly on the hyper flat is a so no operating system between the code and The the hardware Okay, web assembly wants to be secured by default Nowadays when you code It's the the the result set of binaries is just 20% your that your code and 80% dependencies that you haven't written Then what happened is that the way that we execute programs nowadays It's just they execute within the ambient authority. So me as an admin of my machine I'm going to ask my problem to run and then I'm going to provide him my whole Set of keys the permissions that he can so he can run. Maybe he doesn't need it, but it's okay I just wrote the code. So I know it does it will not do some malicious things The problem is that it also past the whole set of keys to their it's dependencies Okay, and sometimes you have a malicious dependency Okay, so that malicious dependency can then use all the rights that you provide to execute some malicious code web assembly wants to execute itself as a Capability based systems so it means that I still have this whole set of keys But when I'm going to run the whole program, I'm not going to pass All the permissions. I'm just going to pass the permission that I think my program needs to perform his task. Okay, so I'm just passing here kind of one key and then this key is passed to all the other Dependencies, but this time the malicious code is quite blocked and cannot really perform the malicious task Also one obstruction that the web assembly wants to provide is called nano processes. So The the idea here is to execute competing modules wasn't modules in this in the same In the same process. So kind of the result is kind of like that So you have the whole process which is like the big box blue box and then inside you will have like the first one is like your main module the one that you have written and It has dependencies to other modules But they all run within kind in a sandboxed way and they think that they are alone within the memory space the process It's it's just a software fault implemented isolation. So Why our was wants to be secure because first it provides capability based systems Also, it's sandboxed by default Okay, so you can run low-level code in a secured way and also it Nano processes provide a way to to communicate between Different modules a lot lot lot much faster than Interprocess communication. Okay, and The end result is kind of like that So you write your first You write your main module in for example rust and then you consume some dependencies that were originally written in all the languages Like C++ go and so on. I mean, there are a lot. They're not only these languages There are a lot of more but well so Projects I Just took two examples. There are a lot. Okay, but you can check as you are all JavaScript developers I wanted to show you assembly skipped, which is just it's a subset of TypeScript that does not compile to JavaScript or transpile to JavaScript, but compiles directly to was modules and web assemblies, okay, and Because I'm a dotnet guy. I Wanted to show you I'm also that that guy I Wanted to show you That you can run now The CLR so the dotnet with on the browser through WebAssembly And they provide now kind of a framework, which is quite similar of like Angular to write front-end applications in C-Shar Go check this link. It's really interesting. There are a lot of things and that guy and basso I think he's Italian and he's doing a C++ front-end library to write Front-end application that compares to WebAssembly and it has also provided kind of like gs6 syntax for C++ It's super interesting the bytecode aliens so big companies reunited and Try to push WebAssembly and a secured by default web and They call themselves bytecode aliens. They are these all the four founders of the aliens and You see pretty big names and just to tell you fastly it's running 10% of the internet and I will end up my talk with One quote that I think it's kind kind of resume What I feel about WebAssembly is that WebAssembly is the first fast multi-language retargetable and safe Intermediate representation that we have that we have ever agreed upon as a community CTO or fast Voila, thank you Any questions? It's a question that a lot of folks are asking to be honest I think that for now it's C++ that will continue to to be like the major solution to To provide native performance within node models But at the end it will switch to WebAssembly models because I don't know in my humble opinion I think it's kind of like the future of the industry or in this perspective But they all they've both fixed some of your issues which is giving you performance and so WebAssembly is a fairly young language Do you have another view of the tools and debugging tools around it because as it's a binary format I guess it's a bit harder to debug than Let's say vanilla JavaScript Yes, okay, so there are already I think some browsers that provide debugging tools To work with WebAssembly modules You have I think within modular Firefox, you can already kind of work with it and and the ball The thing is that I didn't mention and you're right WebAssembly has two representation. It has the one that browsers use to To execute it which is the binary format because it's low-deficient and so on but for human readable It's it's not the most human readable format So they also have a text representation, which is WebAssembly Text I think what or something it's called what And then you can really clearly see that it's low-level it kind of like an assembly code I have a question about the micro front-end and how assembly will do in this in this architecture Assembly yeah, WebAssembly WebAssembly will do in which architecture in the micro front-end The micro front-end architecture, okay WebAssembly are quite I mean it's composed of several modules. So if your concern is to say Do I have to download the whole module big big big module to execute it? No, you can kind of speed it and and in the in the future you will able to you will be able to lazy load it so Yeah, I think you can already do that now because at the end as you see as you saw I mean you're just fetching a resource on the internet and then you can fetch it whenever you want if it's Sorry Yes, I will say yes. Yes. There is no really they're not competing I mean if they're loaded into your browser you can run it on both sides, but maybe you will struggle a bit to make them Work together, but I think it's completely feasible of course Okay, is WebAssembly able to access to the GPU? Okay, so This talk that I've done. It's normally a much much larger and I'm covered all the topics One thing that so your question is is it possible to call some GPU? APIs from the WebAssembly Right now no because the only thing that provides that That is standardized is wazzy, which is kind of like a system interface to call some The OS APIs the thing is that wazzy wants to extend itself and so you in the future You would be able to call some specific domain specific Low-level APIs and for example GPUs, okay, or you will be able to call I don't know something related to blockchain or whatever so Go check wazzy. Go check on the internet was it's really that we want to extend themselves and and they're open to Feedback from the community Thank you so much. Thank you He might be available just outside for questions


We're out here in California and Sean has never flown mountains before you flew mountains yesterday But today we're here again, and I live in California, and I haven't even flown the mountains. I can't believe you live here with this This is so awesome. And like you've never flown this really. I just haven't thought to do it. I don't like gosh This is so cool. Yeah flying mountains. It can be a lot of fun And it's very different from a lot of things that you might fly on a regular basis So there are some particular things that you might want to do a little bit different So we're gonna walk you through some of the things that we're thinking about where we're gonna be flying longer Flying further flying a lot more elevation and flying in places where it's gonna be a little bit hard to even get home So there's some things that you can do to prepare for this to maximize your range maximize your signal and make sure you know where you're going I'm gonna wait like let all you guys play first Because last time we did something like where you could lose your drone You you crash your drone then Alex crashed his drone in the water. Yeah, but this is different I'm also like a little sketch about my setup because like this quote this quad is the only just like actually flying right now like that You know that's you're making a legitimate point is that you really this is really a trust your gear situation And your drone that you've been sending into concrete walls while trying freestyle trick I don't know. Maybe it's not the thing that you want to trust for flying really far away over a big chasm I was leave one setup where I don't rip it around Bandos, I don't crash it into things because I want to be able to trust it if I'm flying over the ocean Or up into the mountains you want a quad that you can trust all the parts on it So, you know try to keep if you can you know if you've got multiple drones try to keep one that you have So this is Bobby's best condition drone. This is the best condition Bobby has to offer today And I'm sure it's fine I'm pretty sure it's fine I mean if you could stay at basically grass level the whole way down and just shoot gaps the whole time I'm trying to just so you're basically planning out Yeah, like that one works like oh if you could hit that from the start to yeah, no start over Sorry, you got to hit that gap at the very top. Okay. Yeah, nice run up. Okay Seen opens right at the top. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah That wasn't very smooth real steady bro. Yeah steady real steady for the win. That's us. You're heading for 14 to now Okay, yeah, perch the van perch the van Yeah, that's fun. That's sick man. Thank you. That was sick. I'm gonna have to real city go that like that So when you're choosing a control link you want to think about what environment you're going to be flying today It seems like most control links are either gonna be a 2.4 or 5.8 with the DJI system, right? Or 900 megahertz most all these modern control links perform very well Even the DJI system, which is a 5.8 gigahertz control link can have very impressive range Like way more than you would expect but in general the lower frequency you go I mean the longer wavelength is going to give you a Longer range if you go all the way down to 900 megahertz as is the case with this crossfire We should have the capability to just fly miles and miles miles, right? We should be able to go as far as we want to go I mean these things are rated for like 15 miles. I think it's ridiculous So if you got a ready-to-fly drone a lot of them are built a lot of the ones that we build are with the DJI system Which is on 5.8 that system is really really capable But if you really want to get the most range and switch to a control link system What that entails is adding a separate receiver to the drone So rather than relying on the air unit to be the receiver as well as the video unit you would Install another receiver. So in this case, we've got crossfire receivers installed in the aircraft And that's going to enable you to link up to a separate radio So you'll need a receiver on the drone. You'll need a separate radio Possibly even a module that has crossfire built in it is a lot more complicated But there's a lot of information on how to do it But if you follow that sounding overwhelming you totally can run the DJI system just keep an eye on your Your OSD and it'll tell you kind of what you're it'll tell you what your reception is It'll be like the bars and even goes red to like say hey dummy and turn around come back You know, and you need to do that anyway No matter what you're on right switching to a certain controlling no matter what people say on the internet is never going to be 100% guarantee you can fail save crossfire It's possible you can fail save anything if you fly behind things if you fly too far if your antennas aren't set up right No matter what link you're using no matter what gear you have you want to exercise best practices and keep an eye on your RSI indicator So in this airplane, I actually have two 1800 4s batteries and the reason I did that I'm actually gonna be running them in parallel Where I can actually put both batteries together and it'll turn it into a 3600 milliamp hour battery gives me a lot of extra flight Time in theory this plane should fly for about an hour with this much battery the Decals add an extra 10 horsepower. That's true So this thing has GPS return home if I get into a sketchy situation To where I don't remember where I'm at or even if I lose signal if I flip a switch or if it goes into fail Save it'll automatically spiral up and climb to that altitude That was the maximum altitude that I flew and it'll come back to us and it'll just circle above us the plane A lot of it just come back That was awesome. That looks so cool line of sight coming down I gotta say like this is definitely long range for us freestyle pilots, but like hardcore long-range pilots will go Miles and miles miles out. They probably laugh at us. No, they they're gonna be like this is medium range. Yeah Oh We're still good the GoPro still on or who's getting it. I have to get it Yeah, they're really very loose brat and that thing just slid Man if you need I wouldn't do that to don't go down there. Yeah, then how are you gonna get back? Don't go back there. If we had a rope that we could do we have we do have a rope We do have a rope seems like another episode of pilots just breaking Sean stuff. Yeah, it's been a while actually we kind of needed this Yeah, I'll try to grab the plane We got it teamwork makes the Pixar this thing is fine though. It's fine. This is the outlaw I designed this drone to be a sub 250 gram very lightweight drone to conform to certain Regulations that different countries have and this quad is actually perfect for doing long-range because it kind of checks all the boxes That we need for long range. It's super light. It has big propellers So when doing long-range efficiency is something you really need because we want to get as long as battery life as we can And this thing flies for a pretty long time, right? Yeah, when we flew this in the episode We actually flew it with tri-blade props and we got about nine to ten minutes of flight Wow, one of these big batteries. Yeah, so if you switch that over to buy blades You should get an even longer flight time. This is the HD one XR we sell these in a road right store and When we were flying these drones originally we noticed that we could get really really long flight time on a seven inch prop with A 4s battery and I thought why not use that for a long-range rig I figure if we get a lot of flight time out of this it would be awesome for long range But the one thing that scares me about flying in the mountains is losing my stuff So I went ahead and I added this GPS antenna to the back And this allows me to in beta flight assign a function called beta flight rescue mode And what that basically is is sort of like return to home with Inav So it'll automatically try to come back home if we get into trouble And you came out yesterday you tested this out already, right? So you already you know Yes, it'll work. I know I can go all the way to the top of that mountain I know that I can go all the way to the top of that ridge over there at least the first bridge I haven't tested the very far mountain yet. I'm kind of excited to you, but I'm also really nervous. Well, let's do it Dude, this is so crazy. I can't even hear the drone. Shoot. Where'd he go? I am holding 50% throttle Okay, slow down a little bit. I lost it. Just get good footage on Shoot it actually went into GPS rescue mode did it yeah, that's scary. What's more scary is that? I don't know where it's going. I don't know where we are. Well, it's coming towards the arrow Okay, is it so it is working. I just don't know where we are. I haven't seen us yet So far I'm trying to get home. I'm a goner 10 volts now. We're gone bro. 9 8 we're gone. No No It's gone. Where are you? Oh my gosh. Wow It's so hard Well that went so bad. I hear it. I hear it. Well, I have I didn't I didn't actually put it in GPS rescue It did it on its own Because it fail-safed slowly. Are you in? Oh, oh, are you're getting control? This is some scary stuff man, why and you're still only one bar of controlling Really just think that the DJI radio was not up to this task. Yeah, the video seemed fine though, right? Yeah, I didn't lose video, but I lost radio. That's the first time I've ever fail-safe with the radio Well, I mean you were forever away That's it on a successful fail-safe. Yeah, I learned something new today. It works Did you have any idea where you crashed to get it? Uh, yeah, you see this hill right here? Basically in the middle Yeah, so it's gone, right? Yeah, I mean unless you guys want to go on a 10-hour hike to get it Well, this is the first time I've ever lost a drone and like and it's like as bad as I feel like It's not my drone. I'm almost like a dental filler Like I'm just being truthful with you guys I'm not too worried about it. I wouldn't have brought it if I didn't if I cared about it Yeah, exactly. Don't bring stuff on Rutterette shoots that you think it's gonna get lost cuz it could get lost This is fast what of the drone. Yeah, it's a land on the freaking car I'm weeding it out. Oh, no, what's your dress slower? Oh, it's coming up. All right I could have done this with a car Are you on it? No, no, I can't go too fast. I'm going so slow


Okay ladies and gentlemen, welcome to another live analysis session with me Patrick Munley. If you can hear me and you can see a Tick Mill welcome screen, could you type a Y in the chat box just so I know you can hear and see. Thanks very much. Okay so before we get going with today's content as always we want to adhere to the risk disclaimer and most importantly any views expressed during today's presentation are strictly mine, they are not representative of Tick Mill and they certainly don't constitute investment advice. So with the risk disclaimer out of the way, for those who don't know me, my name is Patrick Munley. I've been trading since 2004-2005, managing my own money since 2013. I've taken on external investor capital through a managed account service. The performance you can see on the screen is the monthly and yearly return statistics, risk statistics for that service and I guess what I pay attention to is or what's important for me is I'm not concerned about the outcome of individual trades or a string of trades. I'm focused on process and execution versus a trade plan and adhering to that plan and I know then that in the next hundred trades my edge will demonstrate itself and as you can see on an annual basis I've been profitable since 2013 with that managed account service. So that's in terms of where my focus is in terms of trading it's very much about process and I know that if I adhere to that process then the numbers will take care of themselves. Alongside my trading activity which is mainly an end-of-day execution for me now I predominantly trade off the daily charts as a rule from time to time. I do see setups on the intraday charts and we'll trade those but as a rule I trade on the daily charts and so I have quite a bit of time on my hands and so a couple of other projects I'm involved in obviously with TickMail and a resident market expert and I provide a daily market outlook and a daily setup that I'm watching you can subscribe to that through the TickMail blog sites. I also manage and run a trading education service through a company called FX CareerSwap and what we're basically doing there is taking emerging and retail trading talents giving them education and support and then once they completed a structured program we actually fund traders who complete the program and help them overcome what really most new traders struggle with and that's the issue of capitalisation because you can have an excellent trading plan and you can adhere to that and you know even if you're delivering 30 to 50% a year let's say which is excellent returns if you're really trading a thousand dollar account or a thousand pound account that isn't going to add up to a financial return that's going to move the needle for you so what we're doing is looking to fund retail trading account to help them overcome the capitalisation hurdle which is one that traders generally struggle with so that gives you a flavour of where I'm coming from you can reach out to me on LinkedIn if you want or check out my profile has more information on there so let's get into some slides here. I shared this last week just quickly going over just in terms of you know the broader themes that I'm watching in the markets or anticipating still see that we could potentially be coming into a major turning point for the dollar this is the dollar going back to the 1970s and you can see the cycles here and how financial crisis is market panics etc. I've impacted the dollar and from the cycle perspective we were reaching an inflection point here where we could see the dollar turn meaningfully lower we also have this slide from Goldman Sachs showing 16 year cycles in the dollar what you'll notice that the turns don't tend to be don't tend to be just one-off events you know we we often make a high retest or marginally exceed a high and then ultimately roll over so whilst I have a structural view that you know I'm looking for was some dollar weakness and that doesn't mean it's necessarily going to immediately come to fruition that's certainly a theme that I've got in the back of my mind and one that I'm paying attention to and it's predominantly driven by the fact that some you know we're seeing a mass liquidity provision from the from the Federal Reserve and ultimately I believe that that will in time little weaker dollar certainly when we consider the Fed's quantitative easing with respect to the ECB these are projections from where we currently are and where we're likely to to head to in terms of in terms of liquidity and you can see that the Fed is far outpacing the ECB so at some point that's going to come home to roost and we we likely see this this week weaker dollar at the moment in terms of opportunities I'm watching or trades that I'm in I'm looking at the Australian dollar and I had this with the guys in in my trade theme that we're seeing a potential near term topping pattern here I think in the Australian dollar and certainly the options markets are are indicating such we're seeing a move in terms of the risk reversals so the implied volatility premium for Aussie puts so downside protection over calls has started to tick up again and and that's it's likely if not immediately it's certainly going to we should start see that feed through to the spot price which should should start to come down similar story in terms of the implied volatility premiums they're just starting to tick up again as well here in the Aussie also in the Canadian dollar we saw some pretty decent reversals in in the Aussie and the Lune yesterday and I'll move on to the charts in a second one of the trade that I'm at the moment is this Euro dollar for a sell signal on that last night but again I shared this with the guys we could well be in a period of lackluster spot movement as there are some big we've got five billion dollars worth of option expiraries in and around this 187 sorry 108 75 to 109 level the majority of those are going to roll off today at 10 a.m. New York time so that might free up this this Euro dollar once we see some of those option structures removed but certainly at the moment we're seeing a sticky price action in around this 108 75 this is typically due to hedging that that takes place by the option writers as price trades around the option strike nearer to that that 10 a.m. cut in New York some other interesting notes here and this is from JP Morgan the G 10 FX desk they're also starting to to get a little bit bearish here in terms of the Euro and and the Aussie you'll see here they're highlighting the potential for a near-term shift in terms of risk appetite we've obviously seen a you know a drive off the lows certainly in the S&P but as I've highlighted in a few of my daily market outlets we're testing some some initial decision points here for the market and these guys who are seeing the biggest amount of flows in terms of in terms of their client order books is JP Morgan are you know they're the flow coming through their books is probably the largest in the in the interbank space at the moment and so I'd like to pay attention to their flow information it's starting to see the potential for a near-term turn here in the dollar and similar story here in credit-agricle after seeing dollar selling last week they're starting to see that ease now and we're starting to see some some buying interest you develop in terms of the dollar index and they're starting to see now some fresh selling interest as well in the euro so you can see how this this flow dynamic and positioning of some of the bigger players in the market it's supportive of the view that we might see a pullback here this is from BMP Paribas we're also seeing the potential for declines in both the Australian dollar and Kiwi dollar here so we so in terms of what we're looking to do as retail guys is we're looking to try and write the coattails of these these much bigger players and so I use share this information with my training team because when you can start to see a theme developing then it's certainly worthwhile paying attention to so let's jump onto the charts now and start with that with a dollar so there but the dollar is basically you know in no man's land at the moment we're kind of in a neutral phase here but we did see a bullish outside reversal from the monthly pivot here and the weekly S1 we're now training back into the weekly pivot and like I said we've got these big options rolling off in terms of the euro dollar so we like I think today we probably see a consolidation day certainly until later on 3 p.m. UK times when those options expire we might see some some movement then another thing you should pay attention to today is that we're getting jobless claims and we had dire retail sales data yesterday out of the US and that prompted this this move to safety in terms of the dollar as you know we saw we saw a sell-off in risk assets and if we if these jobless claims you know come in on the the heavy side today then I think we'll see another another nurture the dollar if we if we break from current levels so if whilst we hold this current swing low at 98.92 the upside objective the equality move here is is 101.62 and then we'll see how we trade that's the next decision point we'll see how we trade there that would allow some of these oversold conditions in terms of the momentum studies in the dollar to unwind and if we you know if we're getting back up into this area 101.60 the weekly R2 there and you know we get the momentum studies back above the 80 level then I'll be watching potential reversal patterns to to re-engage the dollar on the short side and certainly you know in in light of what I in light of what I envisage is coming down the pike in terms of the liquidity and how that's going to impact the dollar index I'm paying close attention to two short setups and trying to see if I can build a structural position on the short side of the dollar but for now I'm I'm long dollar and again that's trading it you know I'm trading the signals I get from my strategy and then I'm also using that strategy in light of the the broader thematic view to try and then build more significant structural position so this is what I'm looking at in the dollar obviously if we take out these lows at 98.90 then the next decision point on the downside is going to be this equality move down into the 98.46 area which is also 78.6% the traceman of move that we saw off the lows so that would be the next key and downside targets if we don't manage to build on yesterday's reversal again if we can consolidate today and close within the high you know close maybe we don't take out yesterday's high that's fine but if we can consolidate and get a green close here closing up towards the highs that would add to the conviction of this upside move that would give that bullish inside day setup which which often proves which often proves positive in terms of the outcome so I mean that's we're just going to watch and see where we will close on the dollar index and certainly watching those jobless claims today to see what impact they have in terms of risk sentiments so talking about broader risk sentiments one of the charts obviously that I've shared I shared on the blog is this S&P and just highlighting where we are we've come just shy of testing the equality move here off the lows this is our first wave mr. second wave and what we're looking at now is is we're in this 50% retracement got the equality move just above we did get a key day reversal yesterday a bearish inside day so I mean we certainly got some resistance here at the 2850 level I'm looking to to get to go short here on a break of yesterday's layers of I've gone all the wrestling at the moment at 2755 what I'll do today is if that gets filled I'll use today's high as a stop you know 10 ticks above today's high so I'll just show you how I'll play this so I'm looking at getting in at 2755 and then I'll use today's high currently we've got the 2812 so I'll give 10 ticks above that so 2821 now the initial move that you know where I think we'll head to initially is down to this 26 area 2600 so even by the time we get there I've got 1.6 times risk reward ratio working in my favor on this trade if it if it plays out and I watch I'll go at this stage that trade will be risk free for me because there's the potential here that we basically do a symmetry swing so you can see the scale of the move that we saw here all we need to do is overlay that to there and you can see that that brings us directly into that support zone that I took those just mentioning and from there we could make another move higher because whilst this is a you know a key decision point the next key decision point is actually the seventy eight point six percent retracement of the entire decline okay and the one six one extension of this initial swing off the loads so if we hold 26 and we get and I get a bullish reversal I'd actually move I'd be risk free in my short anyway I'd actually put on another long to trade up for a test of this thirty one thirty one thirty one thirty six thirty one eighty will be the key upside objective but what I'm cognizant of the reason why I put the shorts on is that in a technical perspective we've satisfied the minimum criteria really for this correction versus that that leg that we saw to the downside as as the crisis really starts to take hold so technically we could well now see an equality move to the downside you know the in light of the recent flows we've seen the market certainly started to move to a more bullish stance some of these larger investment banks their research departments not so much their trading desks but their research departments are certainly pulled up on the market at the moment and that tends to be just about the time that we see the turn I mean by the time we when we were trading down here at these lows you know you have the Goldman Sachs research department saying we were going to two thousand and we parked and you just this week Goldman Sachs again I stressed the research department these aren't their traders these are you know the market analysts and research guys it's more marketing information more than anything else but they they've got very bullish here now they said they wish you didn't know this week saying that they think the lows are in and you know we'll be seeing new highs so you know that those tend to be pretty decent indicators contrary indicators for a sentiment perspective so there you know the the potential here and you know I take it step by step day by day I'm gonna get ahead of myself but the potential is that we could see that equality move that you know even technically this even if this pattern plays out it's still actually corrective you know that's still just a correction and then we could take off from these lower levels and then start to build certainly if we think in terms of timescale you know this would take if we I doubt we'll see an equality in terms of the velocity that we saw to the downside again unless we get some really dire news regarding maybe a second wave in the Covid crisis but for now what I would anticipate is this move will likely be more of a grind probably taking us into that mid-summer period and by then we could be start you know they we could be starting to hear about vaccine being developed etc and that well I mean but at the moment that's really what what's what these markets are the risk markets certainly are going to be hinging on once we've got clear visibility on a vaccine you can expect these these markets to start to take off again but for now we don't have that and you know Spain for example came out just today and they've had an increase in terms of infections for the first time in six days I mean you know there's I think the the markets probably got ahead of itself here but you know I've got key levels that I'm watching so you know I'll be short three yesterday's lows sorry three Monday's lows but I'll be risk free by the time we get to 20 if we get to 2600 who knows you know maybe we come down and pop higher that's you know like I say I'm not the outcome of each trade is not something that I'm I'm concerned about but I you know I have a plan for each trade and a process and that's that's what I'm you know that's what I stick to so I've got a signal I mean you know I'm in a decision point area in terms of the market structure and so I've got that order in place for the S&P and then you know that's that if we think about risk proxies the Aussie has pretty much been trading in tandem with the S&P and as such I've also got a signal a sell signal last night in terms of the Aussie yen which you know you can see the similarities in terms of the price patterns with the S&P here and there's the Aussie yen obviously the other chart's blown up a bit but let's just do it. So you get the idea in terms of the competition we're seeing in terms of the Aussie yen as a risk instrument so I'm also I've got an order to sell this Aussie yen down through yesterday's lows so just a tip or two below 6750 I think I've got and so again I used the same strategy here if I get filled on that order I'll be I'll have a stop 10 pips above today's highs so I get an improved risk reward as opposed to having to risk this whole candle here you know 160 pips I can get tighten that up to about 70 or 80 pips there and similar idea really I'll be using you know once if I get filled on the trades I'll be looking at a symmetry swing as the first area of potential support for the market which again at this instance we'll put us back down into the monthly pivot okay so we've tested it tested below the monthly visit close back above it we saw the run higher in line with with risk sentiments and now we're seeing this pause so if we if we break break the lows get filled the first area I'll be looking at is this 6594 area now if we don't find support there then I'll be looking and again we've got this trend line we tested it we've opened up below it now so this is adding conviction to this this trade so if we don't find support at the 66 level then what I want to do is bring in the fibra tracements all here and the next target in terms of this trade to the downside will actually be the 50% retracement area so if we don't find support at 66 then I'll be looking for a move down to 6460 which again you know it will give me at that stage about 300 pips in terms of upside and from a risk of all perspective that's a 4.2 return versus my risk okay so that's the the play that I'm looking at in the Aussie yen I'm currently short the Australian dollar I've got filled overnight as we spiked lower so a similar scenario you can see we've corrected into this 50 this we actually held the 61.8% trace and I don't have it on my chart here let's just see just because I don't see we tested in we tested the 61.8% almost to the pit and then we got that bearish outside candle so you know that's a signal for me we're testing up into the volatility support and resistance bands we've got the monthly VWAP coming in here the dailies flip bearish as of last night so I I got filled on a break of last night's lows and what I'm what I'm looking at here we could consolidate a bit now as we that's risk sentiment it will happen if we get a rollover in the S&P then I'm anticipating this also your rollover but so I'm going to give this a little bit of room to breathe here and I'm using a stop just above the near term and longer term VWAP so I've got it in around 63.66 so you know we could consolidate a bit here and again in terms of strategy for managing the trade we've got this symmetry swing so we'll be looking okay I'll be looking for a move back down to test 62 so that stage the trade will be risk-free for me if nobody's in at 62 and they don't you know the buyers don't show up well then it's the same story in terms of targets you know we look then for a move back down to test 60 again we could you know from here we could we could find some some initial support then what we get is pretty nice potential head and shoulders pattern which could take us back down to 78.6 here at 57 so either way I'll be risk-free by the time you know we trade into the 60 area and if we don't find support there then then I can see us trading down into this 60 level the similar to the the idea in terms of the the S&P with that 78.6 retracement if we hold this 60 level then what we could see is another leg of upside here quality move that would then take us into this big a quality leg so this leg here so this baby and then we have the CD completing here okay so we can trade up into there and with then we've got 78.6% retracement we've got the monthly R1 and you can see then we'd be trading nicely back into these prior lows here and and certainly at that stage I'd be looking at a potential short but like I say I've got a valid signal now I'm in the train we'll see how that one plays out but you can see again how you know have a plan that I'm I'm working with in terms of managing my risk managing the trades a couple of others that I've got I got a signal in the Euro that I've already talked about but really the Euro is the same idea here in terms of the dollar index what I've got now is we've got potential a b cd with the target here for this initially will be back into what could be a pretty meaningful and double bottom in terms of the Euro I don't know that for you know obviously that's unknown at this stage but if we did get that move you know that would broadly coincide with you know this dollar index we could see a push through the equality objective here and up into the one six one and we could see pretty major potential for for a double top there in the dollar index and so that's so I'm trading you know I've got the signal we take we're at the monthly VWAP getting we saw a rejection yesterday we're trading in around this weekly pivot like I said we've got these big options rolling off this afternoon so we'll see if that you know can free this up to the downside we're kind of the one of the things that is less appealing about this this setup is the fact that we're in kind of in no mountains here in terms of the momentum studies but from a trend perspective you know holding that that this midpoint can certainly unlocks and bearish downside so that we get this momentum study down into that overball sorry oversold area setting up the idea then for for a long from from a potential double bottom into this one oh six thirty area so again I'm using I've got to stop just above the VWAP here because what you'll you'll tend to find once these moves start they tend to respect VWAP so I use a stop 10 pips above the VWAP just give me a bit of wiggle room and see if this one's going to play out another trade I'm looking at the moment it's the Singapore dollar had a good month trading this last last month got stopped here on a long position but we've got another long signal here the what one of the things that that I would have preferred to have seen is that we complete you know that we'd achieve this equality swing we haven't done that you know you can't get everything all the time in terms of the technical setup but you know do we meet the minimum criteria well yeah we tested the 50% retracement tested the month could pivot got a bullish reversal we've tested the VWAP the 20 period VWAP bands and we've got a bullish a bullish monthly VWAP and we've got the RSI stochastic down below the 20 and and positively diverging so you know does it tick enough boxes for a trade yeah it does and and I've got an order in to buy that at 4290 and again you know I'll just use wherever we get these wherever our overnight lows are now as as my start 10 pips below so let's just be clear like I say 4290 is the entry and I just give it 10 or so pips below the low and ultimately what I've been looking for is you know a double top really at this stage initially and again that feeds into the dollar index idea of a of the potential for a double top terms of managing it well we're probably already at the cemetery swing here not far from it so once we get up into this if we see 4360 so I'll be running 70 or 80 pips and profit by that stage risk free for me again because you know we could eat this we could hit the cemetery swing and similar to the other patterns that I've talked about that could set up the final swing down to complete a more complex correction but even at that stage we're you know we're in we're in another great setup there for a long because we're training back into those prior breakout highs we volatility sport and we would have completed the ABCD quality move and we'd be at the 50% retracement of the entire move from from the March lows up into the highs and say what you get a sense of at the moment certainly is that you know kind of all these these these trades we're looking at are pretty much linked to one degree or another to the S&P so I mean if what we to get these trades really moving we want to see the S&P roll over and money move into the dollar safe haven again in the near term and then we see how that how that plays out in terms of managing the positions that one that's the reverse pretty heavily yesterday again we're not seeing any follow-through at the moment is the it's a loony so you know we took out the trend line resistance we're consolidating here so I'll see you know if we can if we get a bullish if we get a get a break through the highs of of the day then you know again this this is another low risk relatively low risk reward I'm set up because if we get a signal there then again you can you can make the risk reward pretty attractive because you know if I go long through the high the overnight highs couple of pips above and then I use a stop below 10 pips below the overnight low and then you know I don't need to see much movement before before it's working in my favor from a risk reward perspective so you know again symmetry swing here and and then we'd you know you've got to be risk-free as you trade into that 4280 area the overnight high it's it's 41 30 36 so 41 45 would be my entry or 41 40 probably and and then I want to be risk-free by the time I'm trading 42 80 some already upper you know over 100 pips there so again risk reward perspective you can you can really make that work as we consolidate here and again the and the reason why I've been watching those those symmetry news because we haven't seen the equality objective to the downside here and so what I perceive is is the risk is that we get the symmetry swing again so I see a theme develop here guys I'm sure we get into that symmetry swing and then we can still roll over from there to complete the equality move before really taking off against the upside so I'm I'm always and I'm always cautious where but when I see these these like incomplete sequences I don't want to get get too heavily involved in terms of loading up on risk here but now I get these I can make these trades work for me from a risk-free perspective by using these inside consolidations or as I've referred to in the Asian range break trades to tighten up my risk ward and see if we get the move but certainly I'm paying attention to the symmetry swing areas as as when we hold those then we could likely see the third you know third third leg down in terms of the correction is still corrected at that stage you know we haven't from a from 10th perspective with everything's intact and again we just be that will bring us into the 61.8 percent trucement and and then we'd have that quality so again that's another one I'm gonna put on or have a look at once I once I jump off this call okay guys and that's all I really wanted to to review in terms of opportunities today you know keep an eye on these these initial jobless claims keep an eye on the S&P and the dollar they you know these these instruments are really driving the markets at the moment and and you know you need to be focused on the levels in both of those instruments as they go through Pivotal and for this next phase of market development. Does anyone have any questions with respect to any charts I've covered or does anyone have a chart they'd like me to take a look at for them you type an N in the chat box so that I know that there haven't left anyone behind here okay if there aren't any questions guys I'll wrap this one up here and and I'll see you all you can follow you can follow me on Tradingview through the FX career swap I try and post post some charts there when I have time but if not I'll catch you guys sometime next week thanks very much for your time and hope this helps


Good afternoon, welcome to Global Report. I'm your host Lily, hosting All the Way Life from Singapore. Joining us today is Mr. Steve O'Koon, a former official in the Clinton administration. Steve is now based in Singapore as a senior advisor to Macquarie. Welcome to the show Steve. Great to be here. Thanks. Now Steve, here we are in Singapore. It's a Singapore election time. Just a couple of days ago, we had a candidate that was dropped from the super majority list because there were allegations that surfaced for him being snooty, about him being dishonest. Now we go from him to Donald Trump, who needs no introduction, and we see this ultra magnified version of the same characteristics, except in Trump's case, those allegations have actually been proven to be true time and again. So my first question to you is, is Trump invincible? Well, there's a big difference, right? Because what Donald Trump has to do is run on his record. It's not his reputation. It is his record. And his record right now is not great. The economy in the United States is doing badly from a health perspective. The United States is doing badly from how people feel whether or not we have a just society. The United States is doing badly. He is far from invincible. In fact, he's way behind and unless something changes, you would expect him to actually lose this November. He has to do something to change the narrative. Now you mentioned the economy. I don't think it's entirely fair to blame him for the state of the economy because this is a global pandemic. Everybody is suffering everywhere, not just the United States. Well, there's a difference between what's fair and what happens in politics. And in the United States, the president gets more credit for a good economy than he deserves. And he gets more credit or more blame for a bad economy than he might deserve. And that's the way it works.  I mean, unless some miraculous thing changes about that and we're in a recession in the United States, he is the incumbent. He is going to get blamed for that. And that's just the way politics works in the U.S. and the way you have to expect it fairer otherwise. But what about in 2012 during Obama's reelection? I recall that was in the wake of the outbreak of a great recession too. And he was up against somebody who had a very astute business background. Yet he won. How do we explain that? Because if you, well, two things back in 2012, we weren't in a recession. So it's the direction the economy is going. Have you made, if you're running for reelection, is the economy improving? Is unemployment going down? Is consumer confidence going up? Is the stock market going up? All of the trends in 2012 for Obama's reelection were going in the right direction. People felt the country was on the right track. 2012 was a referendum on Barack Obama and he won that referendum. 2020 is going to be a referendum on Donald Trump and right now he is losing that referendum. Now, I think a few weeks ago the unemployment rate was 16%. And the last time I looked very recently was 13.3%. So it does look like the unemployment rate is going down. If it maintains a downward momentum, is there any redemption points for him? Well, it's an interesting question because what you're really looking at is momentum over the year before the election. People don't live what happened in one month to the next, but they look at where they were a year ago and where they are today. And if you compare the unemployment rate in the US in October of 2019, it is going to be way higher by a magnitude of whatever it's going to be in October of 2020. So you're looking at trends over time, not month-to-month, but really over a year. Now, will there be something that I'm going to call an epidemic exception, which is what you just mentioned? Will people say, well, look, Donald Trump wasn't at fault. He can't be blamed that there is a coronavirus. He can't be blamed that there's a pandemic. The country is moving in the right direction. So even though it's much worse than it was a year ago, it's better than it was three or four months ago, and we're going to make an exception for him. Very hard to win on an exception, but maybe that is a possibility that we do get an exception, an epidemic exception. Okay, so if we were to look beyond the past month and look over the years, I know one of his favorite metric is the stock markets. How has that looked for him? Well, the stock market is not really the single metric to look at when it comes to the economy. You really have to look at everything together. You certainly do look at the stock market. You look at the unemployment rate. You look at consumer confidence. You look at it's saving rates. Are people saving money at a higher rate than normal because they're afraid that they may be out of it a job. They're afraid they may be losing a job that they have or won't be able to find a new one. All of those metrics combined are terrible for Donald Trump right now. So while the stock market had a good quarter in the second quarter, every other metric isn't good. And so it is not a good sign for Donald Trump. If he runs on the market, that's not running on the economy and it's going to be a big mistake for him. And that's why they've got to focus on other things as well. Okay, so sounds like the economy is actually tilting in Biden's favor. What are the other issues? What other major issues do we have on the table? Well, if you look at everything, you can break it out into what different factors. He is the incumbent president because he had a lot of great successes. And I think most people would say not great successes. His supporters think he's had great successes, but there hasn't been any amazing foreign policy success. There hasn't been really any massive legislation enacted with him as president other than the tax cut, which was done now a few years ago. He's done things that his base likes. The Republican base likes. He likes protecting the Second Amendment. They like appointing conservative judges. But there's a lot of civil unrest in the country right now. He is out of tune with that. He is certainly not, you know, getting a lot of blame, not for the pandemic itself, but for the response and that, you know, we have now about 125,000 deaths right now in the United States. We shouldn't have that. And so he's going to get blamed for that. So you've got protests in the streets. All of this is not a good sign for an incumbent running for reelection. Now you mentioned foreign policy. Help us to understand the psyche of the American voter. Does the average American voter really care about foreign policy? As a rule during an election, no. The American voter does not look at foreign policy. They look at, you know, kitchen table issues. They look at, do they have a job? They look at, you know, will they have a job going forward? Do they feel safe in their community? They'll look at social issues. It could be, you know, pro-choice versus pro-life on the abortion stage. It could be on, you know, homosexual and LGBTQ rights. It could be on other things that they focus on that affect their day-to-day lives that they see much more than foreign policy. What is interesting in this election is that while Democrats and Republicans disagree on just about everything, anything you can name, they will disagree on it. They will disagree on guns. They will disagree on abortion. They will disagree on civil rights. They will disagree on Black Lives Matter. They agree on China. They agree on China. It's the one thing that Democrats and Republicans agree upon. And it's, right now, the Biden position and the Trump position are the same when it comes to we have to approach China differently than we have in the past. They diverge in whether it should be a bilateral approach through tariffs or should it be a multilateral approach working with our allies. But the direction of where US China is going is going to be the same, whether it's Joe Biden or Donald Trump, and that takes away some of Trump's narrative that he used successfully in 2016 against Hillary Clinton. I think the way that Trump talks about China, the way he articulates about China, tends to resonate better with the voters because he doesn't use this traditional superfluous foreign policy language. I mean, he put it across to them. He drives it straight. You know, you have Kim the Rocket Man. You have C, the technological thief. You have Putin, the intelligent strongman. So they kind of resonate with the voters better because it's not some flowery language. Do you think he has more of an advantage there? Well, he had that advantage. You're exactly right. He had that advantage in 2016, and he had that advantage as an outsider running against the establishment. And no one is much more establishment than Hillary Clinton, right, having been with her husband as president for two terms and then being a senator, being secretary of state. And so he had that advantage over Hillary Clinton. Donald Trump's issue now is he's running the same exact campaign in 2012 that he ran in 2016, but it's a different world now against a different opponent.  And while he has changed course, the results aren't very different than they were before. We still have a huge trade deficit. China is still taking aggressive actions. Businesses are still concerned about forced technology transfers and their protection of their intellectual property. So it will, the language will resonate with his small base, but he's not expanding his base. And that's the issue he's going to have running against Joe Biden as opposed to Hillary Clinton. I think you're right to say that is a different opponent, but I think to a certain extent we have to recognize that Biden and Clinton are cut from the same cloth because they both served in the Obama administration. They served together for eight years. That's not an insubstantial period of time. So Biden has this long record of public service that his opponents can pick apart, and that also binds him to the status quo establishment that Americans have come to distrust. So how can he break away from that? How can he make sure that his public service record is going to do him more good than home? Well, you have actually exactly outlined the Trump campaign and what they are trying to accomplish. That is exactly what they're trying to do. But the question is, do the voters care in 2020? In 2016, the election was a choice. It was a choice between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, and a majority of the electoral college went with Donald Trump. A majority of voters went with Hillary Clinton, but a majority of the electoral college went with Donald Trump. 2012 is not a choice between Donald Trump and Joe Biden right now. This is a referendum on Donald Trump. Voters are going to say, am I happy with him as my president? And right now, every poll you see, the answer is a resounding no. What Donald Trump is going to try and do desperately over the next few months is change the election from being a referendum on him to a choice between him and Biden. This campaign is going to do exactly what you just said. That's what they're going to try and do. But voters, if they don't get there, if they don't get to making a choice and just say, I'm voting against Trump because it's a referendum on Trump, it doesn't matter that what you just said may be true. So to summarize, you are saying that this 2020 election is not really about party policies or ideological affinity. It's about defeating Trump. Is that correct? Well, no, it's a referendum on did Donald Trump do a good job. Almost every incumbent election is a referendum on the incumbent. And you go back to 2012, the referendum was not, it wasn't, is John McCain a bad person, is John McCain a bad president. The referendum was, do we want Barack Obama for a second term? Yes, it doesn't matter who he's running against. Bill Clinton in 96, same choice with him and Bob Dole, George W. Bush in 04 between him and Kerry, it was a referendum on the incumbent. People are happy with the incumbent. They win. Right now, people aren't happy with the incumbent. And if that doesn't change between now and election day, Donald Trump is going to lose, absent a couple of different strategies he may try and take between now and then. Now you talked about that you also mentioned the Electoral College and then you mentioned the popular vote that Hillary won. So my question to you is, you know, do we still bother about polls? Do we now have to scrutinize their methodologies, who they're polling, who's getting poll on, who's financing the polling? Because I think to an extent the polls were accurate. Hillary did win the popular vote. But what are some of the things we have to keep in mind when we look at polls? Well, the most important thing we have to keep in mind is that the U.S. does not have a single election, right, for President on Election Day. It really has 51 different elections, the 50 states in Washington, D.C., my old hometown. And so you have 51 separate elections. And so you have to look at the polls in each state. And then you look at the polls in the battleground states, those states that can, you know, go one way or the other Democrat for Republican. So those are the polls you have to look at. Those polls may not be as accurate as the general polls. So while Joe Biden might be up eight or nine points right now nationally, but if he's down in key states, or much closer in key states like North Carolina, Pennsylvania, you know, Wisconsin, Arizona, it's a whole different ball game because Donald Trump could lose by Hillary won by almost three points. Joe Biden could win by maybe five points and still lose the electoral college. So the general polls will give you a good direction of where the country is, but you got to go state by state and the state polls are not as large. They're not as accurate as the national polls. And that's what you have to keep in mind. What about voter demographics because one in 10 eligible voters are immigrants, which translate into about, I don't know, 23 million voters. That's not a small number. And since 2000, the number of Asian American voters and Hispanic voters has doubled. Do you see the shift in demographics working in Biden's favor. The demographic shift is working in Biden's favor and the Democrats favor over time. The question on election day, right, is not how you're doing in the polls, you know, the saying is the only poll that counts is the last one and that's, that's the one on election day. And what you need to do is get your voters to the polls. And that is why Hillary Clinton lost. There were about 12 million people who voted for Barack Obama, who did not vote for Hillary Clinton. About 4 million of those people stayed home. They didn't even bother to go to vote on 2016. And what the Democrats have learned is that we as Democrats cannot allow that to happen again. So how do you get those people to vote? Well, one, maybe it's you nominate a different type of person. You nominate Barack Obama's vice president, maybe that'll get those 4 million Obama voters who didn't vote in 2016 to come out and vote again. Maybe you don't take certain of your constituencies like African Americans for granted as much. A lot of African Americans stayed home. They're part of that 4 million. And so if Joe Biden has a different approach, let's see who he nominates for his vice presidential pick, that may get those voters back out. Do you have a pro immigration stand when it comes to labor, when it comes to immigration itself? And then you get those types of voters who care about that more than anything else to come out to vote. And that's why Donald Trump didn't really, from everything I watch, he didn't learn anything from the 2016 campaign, other than just do the same thing again. The Democrats have learned differently. They're going to approach it differently and they're going to try and do everything they can, fix the mistakes they made in 2016. And that's why they're doing relatively well right now. Now back in 2016, 65 million voters for Clinton and 62 voted for Trump. So there were in fact 100 million voters who were eligible to vote, but they didn't come out to vote. So how can we better galvanize them to come out to vote in his corner? Because what was the prime reason for them not coming out to vote? You mentioned many stay home. What was the reason they didn't vote? Was it because they didn't like Trump? They didn't like Hillary? Some of it was both. They were literally, literally the two most unpopular people who've ever run for president, ever, were running against each other in 2016. And that was part of it. They were not as likable as previous candidates.  And so part of it is our system. It disincentivizes some people to vote. Some of it is who the candidates are. Some of it is our system. It's harder to vote when it comes to registration. And there's a lot of voter suppression that goes on. And we're as a country addressing some of that, but we're not addressing that nearly enough. And that is going to be a real issue in voting in a pandemic. How are we going to make sure people can vote and feel safe doing so? Really, there have been very few steps, if any, for the country that has taken to address that issue in this election. Now here in Singapore, we're going to the polls next week. And I have to tell you, I'm not entirely sure what the vision is. I mean, we have a whole cadre of candidates that came out and tell us, you know, they came from a humble background. They did this and they did that. And I respect that. But I think we need to have a vision for what they're going to do for Singapore, what they're going to do for the people. So my question to you is, has Biden articulated a vision? Is he now able to tell the future in a way that is so compelling that we'll get voters to come into his corner? Again, your answer is probably not as well as he should have. And that in a close election would be working against him right now. But the problem for Trump is, it doesn't matter because people are not asking, they're not saying, I've got to weigh Trump on the one hand, Biden on the other hand, what's Trump's vision, what's Biden's vision. Now they're saying, Trump, did he do a good job for four years? No, I'm not voting for him. And they don't even look to see what Biden's vision is. And so that is where the Trump campaign has trying desperately to make this a choice, which is what they want to do. You know, Donald Trump was calling him Sleepy Joe. That was his nickname. Crooked Hillary was, you know, the nickname he had for Hillary Clinton, a very effective nickname. Sleepy Joe, not so effective, because you know what a lot of voters are saying? You know what? After four years of Trump's sleep, it's not so bad. You know, I'll be boring. No, thanks, Sleepy. So now he's changing into crazy Joe and corrupt Joe, and he's trying a different thing to make it a choice. The Trump campaign is struggling to do that. They're struggling to get any traction to make this a choice. If they do, then Joe Biden better come out with that compelling vision. And then it will matter. But right now, it's just not really a matter because Trump, it's all about him. And he's made it all about him. And he continues to make it all about him. And let's see if he can change. Now, what do you think of Biden's residency is going to look like for multilateral trade? Well, you would certainly expect a Joe Biden return to what Barack Obama did, to what George W. Bush did, to what Bill Clinton did, to George H.W. Bush did, to what Ronald Reagan did, and working within the multilateral system to advance the interests of the collective, you know, countries, you know, like Japan, like Singapore, like Australia, like Canada, Mexico, EU, United States, you work all together on that. Now, it will be a more confrontational approach within that multilateral system when it comes to China, because the U.S. approach to China, Republican and Democrat, you know, almost from Jimmy Carter through what's toward the end of Obama's term was we're going to accommodate China's rise, we're going to engage with them. And a result of accommodate and engage means they're going to become more like us. They're going to open up. They're going to have more of a society like ours. They're going to have rules like we have when it comes to the economy. They're not going to have state-owned enterprises. They're not going to have national champions. They're not going to engage in state cyber theft. None of that was true. And so all of that still has to get addressed. And it's going to be a much tougher approach. There's going to be a lot more competition and a lot less cooperation that a Biden administration would have than we had in previous ones. It started in turn with Barack Obama when he shifted to the TPP, you know, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, that let's get like-minded countries together, keep China out, and let's have a trading system in place that doesn't allow those types of things. Joe Biden might not go back to TPP. He'll go back to that approach. He'll go back to something like that. Donald Trump will continue what he's doing. So we'll still be a tougher approach to China, but in a much different way. Let's see. Now, I saved the best for last. I want to talk about the VP ticket. This is the one that gets a lot of attention every time the topic comes up, you know, the lights come on, the energy gets pumped. I know there is a range of choices. And if we look at the past 18 Democratic VP candidates, VP's, 15 of them were senators. So would you say people like Warren, like Harry's, like Klobuchar, they are more likely to fill that bill? Well, what's interesting is you just mentioned three people who ran for president, you know, Warren Harris and Klobuchar. If you look at the last 10 VP's that were chosen, only three of them ran for president. So I think it's a much broader field than most people would typically look for. So I think you look at that. The most successful vice presidential choices, Democrat, Republican, it doesn't matter. The most successful ones give people confidence in the thought process of the president, you know, or the presidential nominee. He selects shows how he's going to govern. What's important to him? Where does he see his strengths? Where does he see that he needs help? And if I make the choice that people say, this is the kind of guy I want for my president, that is what is most important. So let's take a look and see if he's going to choose somebody with some experience. Doesn't have to be national experience. Is it got to be somebody who's going to excite the Democratic ticket? An African American woman would certainly do that. So I think those are the types of things we want to take a look at. But we can go through individual names if you like. I think there's one name that's not often mentioned that's the best by far. I don't think it's going to happen, but it would be the best pick for him. And we know who you're talking about. I believe you're speaking about. It's Michelle Obama would be the greatest pick for him. She's got, she is the most known. She's got the experience of having been in the White House, even though she was first lady she accomplished a lot she's accomplished a great deal. And she left the White House and she has the highest approval ratings and we know everything there is to know about the Obama. So, you know, if you get back to your opening question, you know, you can choose somebody who's never run for statewide office or national office and something could come out that you didn't know that voters may not like fair or unfair. That's not going to happen with Michelle Obama. Now whether she take it is a is a different issue, but no question she would excite the exact people you need to get out to vote African Americans, younger people, you know, suburban college educated women. They are all the demographic that Joe Biden needs to come out to beat Donald Trump. So she would be the best choice. But if you take off that choice, the interesting question is, does he need to choose an African American, given where we are in terms of social justice in the United States, and having the first ever African American in the White House as Vice President would send a very strong signal about what's really important to Joe Biden. And at this moment in time that signaling what's important to him could make the difference in November. Now we have just two minutes to close, but I just want to ask you very quickly as a follow up to what you just said. Are the American people prepared to have an African African American lady as an American president, because Biden is not young and knock on wood but should anything happens to him, the VP is going to step into the role and likely be the one to run for the next election. So is the American people ready for an African American women president. Two things one. Yes, they are. It has to be the right person right it has to be somebody that they have confidence in, and they can get that confidence over time, when when she is Vice President. You know, if it's Kamala Harris, if it's Susan Rice, if I mean there's a half a dozen names. And if you look at those were there is going to pick as any white, you know, male previous pics that we've had, and certainly, you know, better than than the two white females who have been chosen, who did not help their ticket at all you know Geraldine for our Walter Mondale, you know in 84 and Sarah pay one for john in 2000 and so for the right person who proves themself as Vice President absolutely the United States is ready for that and and right now that would help Joe Biden when I believe in November. Thank you so much Steve. Thank you so much for your time and your input today and that Steve or could we have seen your visor to McClarty. Thank you, sir. Thank you.


This setup emulates a BLE-connected ring bell transmitting video and audio. When presence is detected thanks to a time-of-flight sensor, the camera and microphone are turned on and start streaming both audio and video data towards the cold receiver, which is in our case a mobile phone with dedicated apps. Once the person is identified, the gate can be opened from the mobile. It triggers the camera and the mic to be turned off, waiting for next visit. How are we bringing audio and video streaming over BLE? Well, to achieve this impressive streaming, we take benefit of the dual-core architecture of the STM32WB with an M4 application processor able to acquire and process large amount of data before sending them to the BLE radio M0-plus processor. The combination of our BLE stack efficiency to reduce latency in continuous data flow in addition to the 2 Mbps feature from the Bluetooth Low Energy 5.0 allows to reach audio and video streaming simultaneously with nice motion and user experience. Now, to go into more detail about the video resolution frame per second and audio quality, the video is in motion GPEG format with a resolution of 320x240 pixels. The audio chain is first acquired by ST Microphone, then treated by the STM32WB55M4 application processor thanks to the OPUS codec with a bitrate of 16kbps. This audio setup is based on an available STM32Cube function pack for STM32WB MCU. This function pack also contains other applications like receiving stereo music at 48kHz or full-duplex audio streaming over Bluetooth 5.0 using OPUS codec and is available on our website ST.com and you might be wondering what's next in our industry story. Bluetooth Low Energy standard is evolving fast on audio features still creating new use cases to provide more quality and flexibility in IoT. Our own map is definitely focused on offering such features answering to the market evolution.


Ond wrth gwrs, rydyn ni'n ddeud y mynd o'r ffordd ar hyn o rydyn ni'n ddiweddol. Rydyn ni'n dweud i'n arwag i ddim yn gweithio i'r amser ac rydyn ni'n ddim yn gweithio i'r amser, ac rydyn ni'n ddych chi'n mynd i ddim yn rhoi'n golygu. Rydyn ni'n ddych chi'n mynd i gael ychydig. Fydda chi'n gweithio'r ysgol rhwtyddol yn y meddwl i'r sgol, yn y sgol y mae'r gweithio'r mwyaf, Does because they can't afford sanitary products. It can have a huge impact on their dignity, self-esteem and also their confidence. I've read about girls who have had to make their own horrible alternatives using tissue or socks or sleeves of old T-shirts. I've also read about teachers having to spend money out of their own pocket to try and give girls the sanitary products that they so desperately need. Everyone thinks that when you're in your period you're unclean and it's bit gross and no one really wants to talk about them. I think it's ridiculous that we only ever talk about periods when we're saying that they're disgusting, or all you're on your time of the month. Or something like that. That's just awful. I think that this is a really, really serious issue. Period poverty is something that's very real and happening right now in the UK, and that's something that everyone needs to open their eyes to.


So good afternoon, everyone. My name is Naomi Berkshine, and I'm the new Executive Director. And on behalf of everyone at Harm Reduction International, it is my absolute pleasure to welcome you to our 26th International Conference. So thank you all of you who travel from almost 90 countries around the world to be with us here in Porto, and to make this one of the largest international gatherings of harm reductionists ever. I would like to welcome in particular the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet, His Excellency, the former president of Portugal, and member of the Global Commission on Drug Policy, George Sampaio, representatives from the local and international networks of people who use drugs, and our other highly esteemed speakers for the opening ceremony and for the days to come. I also want to start by saying a special thank you to our conference partner, Abdesh, under the charismatic leadership of Jose Carrot, and make a special mention of Diana Castro, whose intelligence, coordination skills, and sense of humor were absolutely essential in getting this conference off the ground. It emits the joy of being here together. We also stop to recognize those who are no longer with us. If everybody could take a moment to stand, please. We have suffered significant loss in recent years for the passing of courageous activists and pioneers in harm reduction, our family. The end of any life brings sadness, but when it is so unnecessary, these deaths are preventable and caused by stigma and unjust drug policy. There are no words to properly capture the heartbreak and the anger. A number of people reached out to us in the past few months to find a way to memorialize at this gathering our friends and family who have died, and we are enormously grateful to those of you who've shared the photos on the screen behind me. But we also recognize that we could never hope to capture everybody who should be remembered. And for this reason, we've created a quiet corner in the exhibition hall. We invite you to stop there, contribute something in writing, a memento, or a photo. We honor these people we loved, and in celebration of their lives, their courage, and their resilience, I ask you to applaud. Thank you. Please have a seat. So it is an incredible privilege for me to convene this incredible community to help build on the years of work ensuring harm reduction is recognized for what it is, indispensable. This most importantly means contributing, continuing to highlight the Bank of Scientific Evidence demonstrating that harm reduction works. When this conference began nearly three decades ago in Liverpool, it brought together a few hundred people. They gathered to learn about how our founder, Pat O'Hare, together with Alan Parry, turned a bathroom into Liverpool's first needle and syringe program. Now the conference brings together tens of disciplines and practices at the intersection of drug policy, health, and human rights. This evolution to me, in many ways, reflects the evolution of harm reduction since the 90s. No longer can harm reduction be boxed as a medical response to infectious diseases.  While harm reduction has evolved, its underpinnings remain consistent, dignity, justice, and health. Sadly, where we have advanced, many governments and decision makers have continued to sit on their hands. There has been some progress in the last three decades, both in terms of governments providing harm reduction services and open political support for health-based, rights-based approaches to drugs. But in many cases, governments remain gripped by complacency and are failing to keep up with what's actually required. Globally, the availability of harm reduction services has stagnated and is failing to adapt to new trends in drug use and the crisis in overdose deaths. 99% of the global population who inject drugs live in countries with limited or no harm reduction coverage. And we know that injection use is just part of the broader picture. Not surprisingly, there's little money being committed to address this with a nearly 90% shortfall in funding for harm reduction in low and middle income countries. In the face of all of this, governments continue to spend billions of dollars on law enforcement and punitive drug control measures, obscene amounts of money for obscene policy decisions. They do this instead of investing in harm reduction interventions and policies that have been shown time and time again to protect people's lives and improve public health. We're not just faced with inactions and complacency, particularly when you consider that 35 countries still have the death penalty for drug offenses. The Philippines government continues to wage a brutal campaign against those seen to be associated with the drug trade and certain governments, the US and Bangladesh, praise or seek to emulate this barbarity. Other countries opt for more insidious policies to deny people's rights, be it limiting NGO functions and freedom of association, forcing people from the streets or excluding people from housing on the basis of their drug use. Public spaces for those who governments see as undesirable are ever more squeezed with drug policy, a convenient tool to demonize entire groups of people. When we gather here today, and anytime we stand together as a harm reduction community, we reject this. I say all of this for three reasons. To acknowledge the complexity of the time as we live in, to underscore our conference theme, People Before Politics, and to highlight how important our movement is in the broader fight for social justice. As every one of you know, the issues closest to our hearts are inextricably linked with issues of race and health, poverty and gender, discrimination and criminalization. Our goals of inclusive, fair and equitable societies are shared by many broader social justice movements, but many of these movements are limited by decades of being fed misinformation on drugs, misinformation that will hinder efforts towards truly inclusive societies. So it is my belief that the harm reduction movement is the essential missing piece. With our evidence, our commitment and our courage, we are key to broader social justice reforms. We're deeply privileged to be here in Portugal to learn about the health advances made under the Portuguese decriminalization model. And we couldn't have a more incredible group of people to start this conversation. Of course, there's room for continued progress, but the world still looks to the reforms that Portugal made 20 years ago. And with that, I'm delighted to now invite Jose Kerosch to the microphone. Jose is the Executive Director of APDESH, a leader in both Portugal and in Europe, and our partner in this conference.