But it needs to be said, regardless, the Disney Plus lineup of Marvel slash Star Wars TV shows are pretty much trash and should have all been movies. Wow, I wasn't expecting to call them trash. I actually liked a few of them, so that even caught me off guard. Maybe this is a little controversial after all. Subscribe for controversial thoughts on YouTube. I'll wait. I was very generous when I reviewed some of these TV shows back in the day on Disney Plus. I talked about Loki here. I talked about Hawkeye. I talked about Falcon and the Winter Soldier, whatever that thing's called. And I had pretty positive things to say about all of them. They were engaging enough. They kept me entertained. But as these shows kept coming out, the MCU, the Star Wars crap, I started to realize what exactly is happening here. None of these shows should have been shows to begin with, or almost none of them. They have enough material for one feature length film and not much else. And in some cases, not even that much.  Episode one. Get us introduced to our characters we're going to be seeing for the next six episodes. Get us on the hook. Make us think, wow, this is going to be different than anything we've ever seen before. Episode two. Take a pretty harsh drop in quality from the first episode. It's clear you have a budget for these. But it's also clear you put your best foot forward, and now you're starting to stumble already. Things start to get real dull real fast. And then by episode four, you're either completely checked out already, or there's this shake-up that occurs. Female Loki's introduced. Female Star Wars character gets a spin-off side story that goes on far too long. Another character completely derails your own show. Mandalorian to Boba Fett, for instance. In Hawkeye's case, he's completely couched, so Kate Bishop can take over. This trend usually spills over into episode five. And then by episode six, the characters are back together, and I've lost all interest entirely. This pattern is noticeable in more ways than one, too. For instance, Moon Knight and Miss Marvel. Every single episode, the character shows up with their powers at the final five minutes. We don't see Moon Knight for more than like 14 minutes total in six episodes, which are like 45 minutes to an hour long. Miss Marvel's the same way. I was really on the hook for the first one. Me and my family were like, this is pretty good. I like the vibe. I like the flow. By episode two, there was like a 20% drop in quality all around. The storyline was already stale. The effects somehow got far worse.  This happened with Moon Knight. We did not get past episode three. I briefly brought up the effects. Let's circle back to them. Sometimes, top of the line. I mean, almost movie levels, especially when I look at Kenobi. There's some shots in that where I thought, wow, this is beautiful. This is really lovely to look at.  I don't know what kids watch now. Bubble guppies? That's not live action. I don't, I don't, Hannah Montana. I think in this department, WandaVision holds up the best because they're able to go crazy with some of the styles of the show. And it really plays to the idea that it is a TV series. It's having fun with it. And it's using these larger than life characters in simplistic situations. But then we hit that final episode and we're forced to have these characters clash again and it becomes over the top. And that's where the cracks really start to show. That's where the thread comes undone. Thread comes undone. Well, the thread won't come undone. The sweater comes undone. I don't know, it's just, it looks bad. It looks cheap. And when you have these large tentpole properties like Marvel and Star Wars, you expect, if nothing else, for them to look pretty top tier.  Most people will not deny that the sequel trilogy looks fantastic, even if the writing's ass. At the end of the day, this is nothing more than content for Disney Plus.  They keep investing those eight to $10 a month.  And oh look, we have a R2D2 spin-off animated show or Groot. Like, I cannot believe they're making a Groot spin-off show. What's even more of a bummer is I think some of these characters really could have benefited from a movie like Moon Knight. I know some people dug it. I couldn't finish it. I thought it sucked by episode three. It was just way too cheesy looking. The green screen work was awful. And Oscar Isaac was fantastic, but damn, I just, yeah, that's a shame. Had they given him an actual movie with a big budget and a decent script, I would have been fully on board with this character. Imagine if they would have done what they did here with the Guardians of the Galaxy. Pretend there's no James Gunn movies. Instead, we have a six episode mini-series to get introduced to these characters. I think it would have been a complete failure. And ironically enough, that team of characters probably would work better in a mini-series type of setting. But Disney and whatever talent they have working on these clearly doesn't care enough to make these things something truly special. Instead, they come off as these lazy shovelware products. They can quickly put on an assembly line and push out the door. Even if they have some creativity involved, inevitably they all end up with that same formulaic six-part arc. The Marvel movies have already lost a ton of their magic. And I freaking love Thor Ragnarok. But Thor IV, Love and Thunder, it's looking a little sketchy. It's looking a little sketchy. And again, Ragnarok's one of my favorite of the MCU films. So for me to say that is troubling. They're like going a little too silly for me. Maybe it's just the trailers though. Maybe it'll be a good time all around. Having the TV shows now just kind of degrades the quality even more. The MCU is not quite the upper echelon of films that it once was. Not that it ever was grade A material, but from a consistency standpoint, you were able to go in, enjoy the films, and wonder where they would lead. Now I'm kind of nervous to even fire up the next episode of Miss Marvel. That's troubling. That's troubling.  Maybe put the shows on hiatus. They won't because they need the content. They need that Disney Plus content, membership stuff going up. Give me a damn good Star Wars movie. Don't even act like it's a trilogy. Just make something standalone, set completely separate from everything else Star Wars. It doesn't even have to have the freaking yellow title crawl. Do something new. Do something different. I'd also love to know your thoughts on these shows as well. Do you love them and my way off? Are you happy that there's just new stuff being shoved out all the time? Or would you prefer a less as more approach as well? Give me stuff that's not necessarily six episodes, but maybe just worth watching and discussing when it's done. Most of this stuff, I watch it, I walk away, and I never think about it again. Yet I still got Breaking Bad knocking at the back of my brain. I'm still thinking about Better Call Saul from a few weeks ago. Hell, I just binged all the seasons of Veep again. You want to talk about a funny freaking show? Creative, not afraid to push the envelope. That's your show. These Disney things, they don't push anything, except for the content out fast. Okay, I rant it long enough. Again, think about subscribing, like the video if you had a good time, stick around, and hopefully I'll see you next time.  What a hack. I'm starting to second-guess myself on Mandalorian at this point. Were Season 1 and 2 really that great? Or was I just excited to get something halfway competent from Star Wars again? It's tough to really know, because once he showed up in Boba Fett, and those episodes kind of were crappy as well, I'm just concerned about Season 3. Yeah, maybe The Mando Stuff should be done too. Just give us a movie with Baby Yoda and him. Traveling the galaxy for a couple hours and I'll be good. Let's end this while we're still somewhat ahead. Anyway, I'm on Patreon at patreon.com slash Adam Does Movies, or you can become a member right here on YouTube via that join button, get exclusive videos, you get emoji icons and things. It's fun. Plus you're just, you're supporting me. That's really what it comes down to. I appreciate it.


आब इूर्ब मोelas, बात कोई फís only the 2 projects नुगे, से ? तो सब से बस है। मैं दुरा के बदख़ा कर ने लिएम। क्या है senior & senior ता � listened to this गर ड़ुक सेमथ धाम � 스ायानी लग लेएस कुरू कगा परे कना衡 कहुण तुआनै कताय अनक什麼 भो इप आप से। is the value he is getting at the end of the day so normally in the olden times the customer used to do that normally he used to do commodity based shopping trips but if we talk about today the customer is talking about value based shopping trips what he is looking for is to do a shopping experience with that shopping experience what value addition I got at the end so that if I did 100 rupees shopping what benefit I got instead of that I got 120 rupees so that 20 rupees actually is the value which the customer is inspiring that I will get from this shopping experience normally there are two perspectives of value first perspective is of the channel and second perspective is of the customer if we talk about the channel perspective then the channel perspective value is that all the set of activities and processes which actually help the customer to get some value which means they will enable the customer to get some value of this process or from this activity so this is the channel perspective about value if we talk about the customer's perspective then value is that perception which the customer wants to take from a shopping experience which the customer takes from a shopping experience so we have a very clear perspective of value perspective is very clear that this is that additional benefit which can be tangible which can be intangible which can be monetary which can be non-monetary which can be in terms of some additional features, some additional facilities if you are going to buy an air-condition and with that air-condition you got an installation facility and with that air-condition you got a delivery facility from your home or to your office or to your business location so in all these things what you have done on the price is of air-condition and the facility you have got is of additional installation or delivery so actually you have the additional value is AC's price plus that installation free plus that delivery facility is free so that additional benefit from shopping experience for customer is adding value to that particular customer now we will discuss retail value chain so retail value chain actually it represents all set of benefits which a retailer offers to a customer which is his customer what kind of benefits he can have which set of benefits list of thousands items are available in terms of value if I look at these general examples then when you offer a customer a store location that is also one of the value also another set of benefits which you are giving to the customer if in your store there is a good sitting facility you are offering excellent pricing you are offering excellent discounts there is a good ambience which no one is offering for that particular ambience or that particular environment is also adding value to that particular customer customer is also a value he will compare that if I buy from a general and karyana store or in an air conditioned environment I buy from a mall so again that environment is also one part of giving to the customer in the same way if to deal with the customer there is a staff so that staff which is a knowledgeable staff presentable staff that staff is also considered to be one of the additional benefit which you are offering to the customer so parking one of the factors stocky position one of the factor in stocks every time shelves will not get empty you will not get stock outs stocky position will always be healthy this is one of the type one of the benefit which you are offering to the customer most of the cases it happens that if you observe if a product is present on a good pricing then it will get stock out so the job of retailer is because the customer is inspiring value so you need to ensure maintaining it in the same way the pricing image apart from this even customer you are meeting and greeting in a very good way if you are giving him checkout cashier handling very pleasantly in this case this is also a big perspective part of the set of benefits so all the set of benefits which a retailer is offering without doubt from parking till the checkout including all the people including the process including the product including the pricing including all the value service installation to buy with AC which can be anything let's say you have bought a carton of oil with that you have got half kg sugar free so that free is also one additional benefit are part of retail value chain so to understand this concept whenever you visit a store you see what benefits they are offering and what you are actually paying you are paying the price of let's say bottle or actually you prefer to buy bottle in an air conditioned environment or you prefer to buy bottle in an air conditioned environment the price of the bottle may remain same normally it remains same but when you see the benefit where more set of benefits of course customer will prefer to go to that retailer and do their shopping from there so retail value chain is very important for a retailer that in growth its prosperity


All right, we'll start this morning and we're going to continue to build on the Vince Lombardi-like Fundamentals of good parenting and then we'll start getting some deeper stuff Can anybody see these two kids here? That's that's my DNA right there Okay, those are two my two of my my three and a half grandkids Right out of the womb with these kids Tainted by the culture to make them evil or will they were they born evil? Raise your hand if if you think that they're born innocent and the culture just Makes them evil Good for you. That's what that's that's the answer evil right there. Okay, that's the devil incarnate But I go to churches and 50% of the people say oh, no, you know those those kids are innocent and and that's see That's part of the whole world view problem that the church has and so today. We're gonna talk about world view In this session and you're gonna see how it applies to everything else We're gonna talk about for the remainder of the our time together We touched on common sense a little bit yesterday last night, but Have we really stopped to think what common sense really is? What is common sense anyone want to tell me what common sense is If it's so common well in order to have common sense there has to be a common standard by which we Can go back to refer back to what is common sense when it comes to parenting? Well with common sense for life or for parenting is to be truly common that means again We have to have a common standard. So who or what should be that standard? We're about right right back here again, which you guys do the answer to that and for the first 200 years of American history common sense for the most part has always come through the lens of a biblical world view until the 1960s when we got smarter than God and Postmodern thought post a postmodern world view began to take over and from the 60s To the 70s to the 80s to the 90s now broom We just bought a hook line in the sinker and it's crept into a lot of our churches, which is why They think we who still here to this our cult No, we're called and they didn't love me.  Okay whole other story didn't mean to go there. Sorry. No extra charge I Didn't grow up in a Christian home, but I probably Lived more Christian in my heathen home than most Christian homes do today Simply because the culture had influenced My family and our neighborhood in our entire society to live that way We had a common sense way of doing things which originated from This just like the Constitution did Our whole nation genuinely speaking Bought into a Judeo-Christian moral ethic for living life and raising kids and right here is the crux of all of our problems folks In our private lives and our church lives in our nation and I say our I mean the church at large Okay, so please I'm talking in generalities You plug it in where it needs to be plugged in or let it roll off your back like water in a duck and Certainly when it comes to parenting our kids And you're probably asking well What does world view have to do with parenting my kid? And I'm here to tell you it has everything to do with parenting your kid everything and we're gonna talk about that But for those of you who might be asking what's a world view? It's the lens by which we filter truth life and all of reality We all have these presuppositions and throughout all of Accumulated all of our accumulated knowledge in life of world view is created by and helps create All the presuppositions that we have about things like religion relationships morality people groups and how we parent our kids so Again, where's our world view come from back to Romans 12 to right World view should has start somewhere it can start with some doctor or some therapist or some witch doctor It's got to start somewhere. Why not? something in history has Substantiated as being very authoritative God has always had a way or he always has his way Looking at reality in all situations. He has a world view too Including how we should parent our kids and generally speaking He's revealed that in his word. He has a like a 30,000 foot view on things. Okay, he sees it all He's got the objective view from the standpoint of absolute truth We only have points of view. Okay, we're out here. We have we see things this way And that's why we have to bounce everything through the lens of him down on things from that 300 foot 3,000 foot view to to get The whole Romans 12 to View on on life and in our case parenting We have to understand folks that our kids because of their postmodern indoctrination by our culture filter reality much differently than we do We also have to understand it. They've been eaten up with postmodern thought they were born into it. They were postmodern natives and Some of us are postmodern natives even as adults if you were born say in the 60s and beyond And by the way, what does the devil do his best work I tell us to our shepherd's hill kids all the time church Now God does his best work in church too and that's where the confusion comes from So what what is a biblical world view we're getting a postmodernism in here in this a second It's a world view where all man's presuppositions about life truth reality and in our case parenting are filtered through the lens of scripture God isn't part of our life. He is our life. All right. He says I'm the way the truth in the life And I think that sometimes Christians have a tendency to think well, I got my agenda my plans God you can come along and endorse those plans and that's just 180 degrees out of whack As Christians, what are some of our presuppositions? Well, one is God exists. That's a presupposition. That's a given The word is his final arbiter of truth About where man came from about why man is here About moral right and wrong and how man should live his life on earth and where man is going when he dies Origin meaning morality destiny those were four issues that every human being has to deal with like it or not Christian or not You have to deal with that As Christians we we also have some presuppositions We and we have some presuppositions about parenting and these come from scripture also like the fifth commandment which is honor your father and your mother and Must be pretty important because out of the ten the first four are Vertical it's how we should deal with God and the next six are how we should deal with man And the very first one is honor your father and your mother and Not honoring your father and mother it was a capital offense in the Old Testament before the institution's civil government So you can get stoned to death for being a rebel.  Don't provoke on the anger train our kids in the way They should go not leaving them to fend for themselves Proverbs 29 15 Protecting them educating them providing them sustenance the question is do we really know what scripture says explicitly and Implicitly because it says probably more implicitly about raising kids and it does explicitly And this is why we need to be spiritually tuned to the voice of God Which is why I said last night the key to all this is getting to know Jesus And we have so much lukewarm Christianity today, don't we and I will say that lukewarm Christianity is probably an impediment Because some people say well some Christianity is better than none. I'm not sure about that. I I'd say it's an impediment to healthy parenting, especially in the day we live in today and Without knowing what scripture says about parenting. It's going to be hard to parent according to a biblical worldview Even for parents who think they're parenting according to a biblical worldview. There are still things to keep in mind Like, you know, most parents have no idea what postmodernism is and how it affects thinking How we filter truth Therefore most parents have no idea what postmodern thought has done there are kids worldview Which not only affects juniors thinking but his appetites his attitudes his habits actions his behaviors and his addictions and ours as well Very few parents have any idea just how how much the postmodern thought has tainted their own biblical worldview And how it affects their relationship with their kids and even what they think they know or believe about God When you look at George Barnes statistics, you see that of evangelical born-again Christians only 25 percent Even claimed to have a biblical worldview and of that 9% claimed to live by what they say they believe We're talking the evangelical born-again, you know the nutjobs like you and me and In the teenage population, it's 2% 2% I was to us speaking at a church Just about the subject of worldview up in Chicago and the pastor knew what I was gonna be talking about And so he went and had self-tested at a local college to see if he had a biblical worldview and he flunked This is the assembly of God Church and This man repented before his entire congregation It was just it was humbling to watch this, you know and and and and since then Got things turned around So what exactly is a postmodern worldview? Well started like I said in the 60s with the hippie movement Timothy Leary and all that stuff Much of what a person with a biblical worldview believes about God in his word the postmodern thinker believes about himself as an individual Basically puts himself as God. He's the arbiter of all truth and reality He believes he exists He believed that he's his own arbiter of truth Like I said with his own moral standards including how to parent his kids This could be an abandoning them or Abusing them or teaching them fallacious things about reality and life about those issues of origin meaning morality and destiny Hey, you know you evolved from a monkey, right?  We're living up to those expectations as kids, aren't we in here in America today? Now he doesn't really know why man's here on earth this postmodern thinker He doesn't know why other than to pursue his own personal desires So when you tell him that he's not supposed to be doing something you get and looked at as judgmental And he knows all the judgmental verses in scripture do not judge unless you be you know He knows that takes a lot of context, of course Doesn't know where a man came from with the exception of perhaps evolution like I said, and he has no idea what happens after death And other than turning to dust he really doesn't much care Now isn't that a foolish thing? You know there's one guarantee in life, and that's we're all gonna die You'd think you've got a whole lifetime to prepare for that and to not even think about it Kind of insane to me He has no answers to the questions of origin meaning morality and destiny To really complicate things. There are those people who claim to be postmodern Christians But that's way too thorny to tackle now. We're not gonna get into that But if you've ever heard of the the emergent church, okay, there you go. They raise much more questions than answers they won't plant their feet firmly on anything and It's a mess I won't even get into it the postmodern thinker would say follow your heart It feels good do it do your own thing truth is relative Which right for you may not be right for me. I have my truth. You have yours Truth is what you want it to be. There are no absolute truths Now this worldview is illogical and self-defeating, but it does rule our society the media particularly our entertainment industry And our kids are eating up with us. Okay, even if they're homeschooled. They're still getting some of this In their head and by the way that whole there are no absolute. What's wrong with that statement? See you guys have taught well, thank you for making my job easy here Have you ever heard this your kids argue this and maybe you haven't but I know most churches I go to they've argued I should be able to do whatever I want to do as long as it hurts someone You hear that one. I mean maybe a co-worker or something But in the very course of saying this They've Spoken an absolute I should I ought I must those are absolute those are imperatives so they're contradicting their own postmodern beliefs by Bringing the equation an absolute and this is where we as parents and Christians in general need to hold these postmodern thinkers accountable Because that's going to be their step toward the kingdom This has got to be their idea this got to be a work of the spirit God uses us to cultivate ground. I'm not responsible for saving anybody I'm responsible for making the ground cultivated or the seed of God's spirit can take root and bear fruit And that's what we have to be doing And I'm afraid that sometimes we go like a bull in China shop and go Jesus Jesus Jesus Then we've turned we'll turn people off to that and we get we've got to to Approach them what Jesus do he met them at the point of their need. He fed him He healed him. He did things like that and and then we can mention where the where our emphasis comes from Perhaps your kids wouldn't be so bold to make a statement like you know like that like you know I should be able to do whatever I want to do is long to hurt someone maybe they wouldn't say that but maybe they would say That's just your opinion mom That's just your opinion dad. You hear that Again, maybe you haven't but a lot do or whatever We heard that one And these are both classic responses from young people who are eaten up with postmodern thought All logic is thrown out of the window and sacrificed on the altar of emotions and feelings They add to their postmodern indoctrination the damage that digital technology is doing to their brain circuitry And what political correctness is doing to their ability to think outside the box for fear of ridicule from their peers Now you've got a recipe for conflict with a slim chance of resolution Because today's postmodern world view is nothing more than really the recycling of the biblical Passage that says that every man's doing what's right in his own eyes There's nothing new about postmodernism. It's new to America 1960 but everything recycles itself washes itself out and if Jesus doesn't come back and We don't get taken over by some rogue nation, which is very possible Um, we'll come around I got a feeling Jesus is gonna come back, but it's right here where we parents Have to what we call it Shepherd's Hill pushing the antithesis we have to push the antithesis. You know what I mean by that Means you take their illogical statements from their postmodern thought Take their illogical statements and their arguments and you push them to their logical conclusions But let them come to their conclusions themselves Don't push an answer on them It's got to be their idea then they're gonna own it It'll also stick by the way and one of the things that I do when I'm with the kids at Shepherd's Hill Is I'll ask them I'll say okay What what what your view of morality and how we should live life and your philosophy of life and world of you and all that stuff and They'll say I should be able to do whatever I want to do You know as long as it hurts someone you get that all the time and I'll say okay We'll put the weasel claws as long as it hurts someone on the side Okay, because they throw that one in which is an absolute In case I want to hurt them, you know But let's just go with I should be able to do whatever I want to do when I want to do it I Asked them I said how many people on the planet seven billion What's the logical outworking of seven billion people? Wanting to do what they want to do when they want to do it and this is a very honest generation They don't know how to blush. There's nothing to embarrass them and they'll say well chaos What's the logical outworking of that war? Hate Destruction death. Yeah, you're right. Here's my worldview. Remember. I'm not breaking Jesus into the equation at this point. I So I Think I should love my neighbor as myself and I should do on others as I had them doing to me Now, what's the logical outworking of seven billion people thinking that way? Love peace harmony Which world do you want to live in junior and Then they come to their conclusions and then they start thinking well, you know What are these ideas come from and then so we start exploring where these ideas come from and who these ideas came from? But they have to come to those conclusions and when someone says there are no moral absolutes I know you've heard that from people. There are no moral absolutes You see how that statement self-destructs before it even leaves their mouth It's like saying I'm the brother of an only child You know or I can't speak a word of English It's it's insanity. It's insanity We also have to make sure that we're defining our terms the same way our kids are defining their terms because another Biproductive postmodern thought is the redefinition of terms or the Deconstruction of language we touched on that a little bit last night. So many of our kids are using godly terms with the devil's dictionary Do you realize that love? Every every contemporary song virtually every contemporary song has a word love in it But they don't mean sacrificial agape love It's lost It's not nothing sacrificial about the love that our kids are getting crammed under a throat to Hollywood Madison Avenue and their entertainment industry It's lust. It's selfishness. It's how you make me feel. Why do you think these these?  Oh, you know, they talk about the romantic interlude This is my 15th one and I know this one's gonna last but it never does truth is another word truth is Relative it's not absolute. So when you Talked to your kids about truth You're thinking of absolutes Objective truth not not not our kids necessarily now your kids again like I said many be But out there, it's relative if it's true to me. That's when it's true Grace Grace is now licensed You know, we've within the church we we've Redefine that freedom freedom is no longer the freedom to do what you you ought which implies an absolute It's the freedom to do what you want and see our founding fathers fought to defend our freedom to do what we ought Pre-supposing God in the equation, but now it's the freedom to do what you ought saying godly term Define the devil's dictionary faith presumption. We talked about that last night marriage my gosh What we've let this happen. Does anyone have enough sense to say marriage is between a man and woman? Like h2 h2o is water All right, h1o is not water. It's something, but it's not water All right, you can't have dry water Whenever you can be glass that dry water over there or a cold fire.  I mean it where where is this stuff stop? friends, I got 300 Facebook friends You don't know what a friend is junior These kids these people stab you in the back the Bible says there's a friend that sticks closer than a brother You want Facebook and everyone's saying how I got the biggest this I got the best that I got the most this They're all I am you know, it's one big embellishment fest and the adults are just as bad heroes Ask the kid what a hero is.  Why is this person a hero? They are cool Really cool cool didn't land Armstrong on the moon cool didn't Didn't make the guys climb those bluffs at Normandy cool didn't make Soldiers stand shoulder-to-shoulder from here to that wall with muskets Fighting for freedom to do what we want You see how all these terms get messed up And so we have to be very careful that we're defining terms the same way when we're dealing with our kids And you got to keep in mind Your kids have no cognitive recollection beyond the Bill Clinton years That's the only world they know Bill Clinton was the first hippie generation parent our president rather and parent This is a guy who had the audacity to look America in the eye With his postmodern thinking to a postmodern brainwashed public and Says that's that depends on what the meaning of sex is So he's gonna redefine what sex is and so ever since Bill Clinton is in an office Kids have been having all kinds of crazy sex and redefine it.  That's my whole point I'm saying this just like it pertains to digital technology Again, they're natives were immigrants. I Talked with schoolteacher the other day who said that Adolf Hitler did what was right in his eyes We can't say that what he did was wrong because he thought it was right in California schoolteachers and we have California kids at Shepherd's Hill Schoolteachers cannot tell a kid that two plus two equals five is wrong They have to say well that could be an answer But let's explore further junior because we don't want to hurt your feelings Because postmodern thought is all about feelings All right, we make life decisions based on feelings rather than the logic and truth behind it These are the times Skew that we live in and the other thing they can't refer to in California is they can't refer to their parents as mom and dad Nope You got to refer to them as your parents Why because the transgender homosexual thing going on political correctness Ramak. It's absolutely insane So between the virtual world our kids live in with all the digital technology the postmodern thought and the political correctness our kids are now Very good at creating their own reality And that's really the truth they create their own reality as they see it they filter it through the worldview that has been They have been brainwashed with but yet we're the ones who get accused of brainwashing our kids because we we want to raise them from the standpoint of absolute truth pretty nuts and This is precisely why our kids need to be brought back to reality regularly by being allowed to experience the natural consequences of their actions and not being bailed out of everything all the time And I'm sure you guys Don't do that, but man a lot of parents. They just go to their kids rescue all the time. They need to know that everyone is not a winner Okay, at least not all the time and that they don't deserve the best of everything just for showing up Because a real world doesn't work that way it only breeds entitlement narcissism No sense of gratitude and you can't be emotionally or spiritually psychologically relationally healthy Until you're grateful for something And when you give our kids everything all the time, which is what America does now How can they be grateful? They just expect it You have to teach our kids to attach reward to Achievement They also need a starting point by which to determine moral right and wrong and that's what you're giving them When you give them the word of God a starting point a place to plant their feet Now you want to hear something scary You guys remember who Chuck Colson was right Well, Chuck Colson Colson did a little study and he asked I forget how many there were but a bunch of 18 to 25 year olds And he asked them I Want you to give me your greatest moral dilemma in the last five years What do you think this generation's? greatest moral dilemma in the last five years was I Want to raise your name someone tell me No Okay, they didn't have a moral dilemma No one had a moral dilemma in the last five years now.     I go all out of place I know I know what I'm talking about here again may not happen here But the same kids who are raising their hands in worship on Sunday morning Are the same kids fornicating in the parking lot Sunday night? I had a guy just a few days ago. Call me Want to get a kid shepherd till he's the worship leaders 16 year old guitar phenomenon worship leader at his church stealing guitars Break it into businesses stealing sound equipment and stuff like that and yet worse worship leader That's sick. I That's beyond sick Our Bible quiz winners whether a Bible quiz winner, you know, they know scripture inside now Well, yes, who else knows scripture inside now the devil Same Bible quiz winners dealing drugs out of the church lobby seeing those things to slandering people on Facebook sexting When I see all the proud parents of the honor students, you know, you've seen those Honor student stickers proud parents. I just want to pull them over and say, you know I pray that your kid genuinely is an honor student But if you look at the statistics 80% of kids today cheat to get their grades 80% And they largely use these things to do it Again, I'm not I'm not making an indictment. I'm not trying to indict every kid Uh as being a cheater who makes the honor roll. I'm not saying that at all But I do think that we need to be aware that this is these things are going on And this is why it's so important for us as parents not to be lukewarm in our faith You might look strange in the eyes of your kids.  Our kids need to be See consistency in our walk in our talk Model it made by their see a sermon and hear one any day because our actions speak so loudly that they can't hear what we're saying Anything less on our part makes us look like hypocrites and and our god powerless No kid wants to submit to a powerless god And the funny thing is that hypocrisy breeds hypocrisy Our kids don't need to see themselves Our kids don't see in themselves what they are so quick to see in us Again, I just showed you how postmodern thought is very hypocritical. It's very illogical. They don't see it And it's largely because we're not really trained to argue it and to to expose it for what it is and again strictly Raising my kid up with a biblical worldview isn't going to guarantee that Everything's going to turn out all right, but the question is what's the alternative? What's the alternative? Is there a better option? And some people might be thinking well, you know, why can't I you know, uh, raise my kid up to be happy and, uh Can't be a good parent without believing in all this god and bible stuff and without all this worldview stuff Well, let's address that I believe the greatest parent without god The greatest parent without scripture can be infinitely greater with him And why because without scripture again, what standard do we use to determine what a good parent is to begin with? What standard do we use to teach our kids more right and wrong? With god the power through prayer in the church body We have to tap into infinite intelligence Power strength and wisdom isn't a bit arrogant to to think that we have all the answers all the time Isn't it a bit scary to think that billions of other people Will all have their answers as well And when kids see us submit to an authority greater than ourselves It makes it a whole lot easier for them to submit to our authority It gives our kids a conscience Monitor called the holy spirit that gives us And them a greater assurance that they'll do the right thing Because they'll actually know what the right thing is Especially when they're not around us Another thing is as parents we don't have to bear the burden of having to be right We can blame it on god My daughter allison told me she's a dad one of the greatest things That I had going to school and I sent her to a christian school, which I've had to do all over again. I wouldn't She says when my my friends want to do crazy stuff She said I always had you to to blame My dad wouldn't let me do that.  Just don't do that go engage in that So she's able to say a little face with her friends and had a reason why she couldn't go to that party or go to this particular thing Even though god's general principles will work In general even for the unbeliever The unbeliever can't claim god specific promises for eternal and earthly blessings Another reason because without god We give our kids no reasonable answers to the questions of origin meaning morality and destiny They're just basically our our own ideas. We're pulling a lot of thin air But not only is it important to have a biblical worldview when it comes to pairing our kids It's also important to know just how a postmodern worldview affects our relationship with our kids And how it adversely affects our own thinking as parents because Even in this room it has affected us to one degree and you know say we'll give me an example And give me example how it affects my relationship with my kids and again May not affect you like a lot of places, but It will affect to some degree and here's one way it affects us as far as our relationship with our kids if truth is really Relative and not absolute then juniors truth is as good as yours He feels justified in arguing his point with fervor Who are you to tell me what to do? That's just your opinion mom and dad Another thing is because of postmodern thought good and evil are no longer absolutes Who are we to say that all the sex and violence and entertainment industry is is necessarily a bad thing? We're just being judgmental. We have no objective point of moral reference to fight against it. It's legal must be okay Well, guess what else was legal slavery abortion Now they're legalizing pot Just like ancient Rome folks the state becomes our god And if you disagree Then you're labeled an intolerant religious relic out of the stone age And that's why we have to have answers to these arguments to legitimize our faith The way we do things in our home And the god of the universe without making a big long list of things postmodern thought has helped Create a culture where what is abominable in god's eyes is now acceptable even hip in man's eyes And not just any man's eyes. We're talking people of prominence and influence our politicians school teachers Coaches professors folks like bruce Jenner and other heroes You know rock stars doctors news anchorman talk show hosts politicians athletes teachers and even preachers As parents we have to deal with all this as we raise our kids Culture no longer backs us up as parents as they did when I was growing up It works against us kids are now expected to have sex by appointment When I pass it out or the light's going down You guys know there's organizations in colleges now And in some high schools The acronym is lug l u g You heard of it Lesbian until graduation Sex sells hamburgers automobiles toothpaste. I mean you name it Toilet paper, and maybe I don't know And why not it feels good do it Postmodern thought has given birth to political correctness Offending someone is now the new un-pardonable sin The criminal gets more rights than the guy who's been violated But this is all this is all our working of postmodern thought folks And consequently as christians we become peacekeepers rather than peacemakers and I'll explain what the difference in a little bit This makes it easy for our kids and us to be taught believe and perpetrate lies ourselves And if you don't accept the politically correct notions of the day Then you're a bigot a racist a hater a right-wing religious nut job And all this is being taught to our kids in their public schools Their music and entertainment their tv the internet on and on and on Christians are one of the few if not the only socially accepted entity to be discriminated against today Even in the mainstream media it's okay to put us down Maybe we need to lop off enough heads over there in the mid-east Maybe the media will get on board with us All this is because postmodern thought puts an emphasis on the individual's desires Or the desires of the masses Individual rights over community rights How else does postmodern A postmodern worldview affect my relationship with my kid well as parents we no longer Can pull the common sense card that's just common sense junior I don't a counselor at shepherd's hill about 10 years ago I said I said, you know, that's just common sense, man.  I mean all kinds of stuff words like ought should Must Good bad right wrong family marriage and center virtually meaningless anymore Certainly sin You can say god you just can't say jesus These words are too absolute and exclusive for the postmodern thinker So what faith our kids still do have they're afraid to admit to admit it for fear ridicule Because most of our kids just to be honest aren't Prepared to defend The their faith and the issues of logic and reason and whatnot It's why apologetics is a must for the church today.  Well culture used to affirm christian parents values now we have to fight not just our kids, but the entire culture as well Now our culture justifies and helps accommodate our kids in nature Did you know that if your 12 year old girl tells Their guidance counselor in a public school? I don't know the laws are in florida, but I'll say most states That guidance counselor can take your 12 year old daughter take her down to the local planned parenthood Get her an abortion bring her back to school and legally you never have to know about it And the scary thing is is it may have happened? How are you going to know about it? It's beyond wicked All these things are why we have to know this stuff ourselves and challenge our kids to challenge the culture And their peer groups by teaching them to push the antithesis And expose the illogical and destructive outworking of this kind of illogical incongruent line of thought Because it is dangerous beyond dangerous And every church again ought to be teaching this stuff in addition And by the way, you can go to license the parent.org And you get a ton of resources either off our website or we'll give you resources to go to their websites To get all the stuff you need in this in this area.  I'm going to tell you something. I was talking with can ham. You guys know what can ham is? And I said can I said Everyone says you look kids. They just want any more entertainment and they don't want to sit down and listen to the good bible stuff And and I said that's bull hockey I said When I talk to kids about this stuff, they They're hungry hungry for the truth. He says they're he says yesterday He says they're on the edge of their seat when you when you when you talk about this stuff They want truth. I have a lot of hope for this generation. They really do want truth They're not hearing it and and the church doesn't Know how to to to teach it to them. I guess I don't know So in addition to challenging our kids to pray for our nation and for our church, we also have to teach them To become peace makers rather than peacekeepers now. Here's the difference Peacekeeper sees me coming out of a hotel room with someone other than my wife And the peacekeeper says well, that's not my business. I'm just you know, that's a peacekeeper They're basically prolonging the inevitable explosion. That's a bound bound to happen Okay, it's like a A peacemaker says trace trace trace I gotta tell beth and we gotta get this right That's a peacemaker. That's a Proverbs 27 six man. It's called accountability folks Left to ourselves We know what we're capable of doing. I know what I'm capable of doing left to myself Look what king david a man for god's own heart. Look what he did violated every one of the 10 commandments in one fell swoop Because he's in the wrong place at a wrong time until someone held him accountable Nathan was a peacemaker may have cost him his job or his head But he was willing to be a peacemaker Jesus Said I didn't come to bring peace. I came to bring a sword Yet he's called the prince of peace Blessed are the peacekeepers, right? No Blessed are the peacemakers Bible says nothing good about peacekeepers We have to quit believing the lie the conflict is antichrist Kids really want something to fight for they really do So let's be intentional to train them to rebel against the rebellion Rebel against the rebellion But here's the deal and I know we only have it's the few minutes left So I'll try to rush through this but lest you think that this kind of thinking hasn't influenced you And your family more than you think Let me ask you a few questions Where'd we learn most of our moral values and parenting skills? Well, usually it's our parents, right? I mean Then once we leave our parents Then it should be scripture and again in here, it's probably the case but There's so many Christians who Have just bought into this stuff And I'll ask them I'll say but was it your parents who taught you that premarital safe sex was acceptable and even wise and commendable?  They don't want they don't want the label that their lifestyle identifies with Again another out working postmodern thought that our parents teach us that drugs should be legalized because so many kids are just doing It's just kind of stays they go through Our parents teach us that spanking a rebellious foul mouth child was child abuse By killing an unborn baby was a woman's choice What about the kids choice What about the dad's choice That our president should be able to do you know what with you know who you know where And we should trust him for His effectiveness as a president That music that glorifies misogyny satanism violence rebellion is just an art form That adultery may actually spice up a marriage and lying about it is just the acceptable thing to do Our parents teach us that You can go on the internet and you can you can Google frank Sinatra and you can see a mugshot of him. He was arrested in new jersey. You know, he's arrested for adultery As far as I'm concerned, it still should be illegal Our parents teach us that sassing an adult is just a child's need for self-expression Or that everyone's a winner and that everyone deserves that trophy just for showing up our parents teach us all that Our culture did guarantee you that The parents have have to encourage sloth and mediocrity so they don't hurt juniors little self-esteem But tattooing body piercing body modifications was you know just a Form of self-expression and I got two sons who got tattoos and they think because they you know, they didn't get them at home They got them when they moved out and I think because they're bible verses that you know And I don't know how you feel about that I know it's an in-house debate and I'm not saying it's sin or not sin I have my own convictions on it. I think I heard someone say I don't have the right to put graffiti on someone else's body We are bought with a price.  You know, it's there Might remind you of where you came from. I don't know and and maybe you'd get 10 of them tomorrow You're still my brother or my sister or Today's world he might be both. I don't know Gender fluidity is what they call it gender fluidity So you can have triplets now And you say, you know, what do you have boy or girl one of each It's all rodney danger field joke Did our parents teach us that adolescence should last until junior is 30? That animals have the same rights as humans The truth is relative and what you believe it to be regardless of the facts There are parents teachers that a career woman should be more esteemed than a domestic engineer Used to call a state or stay at home mom stay at home moms You are helping create the success of our nation's future I tip my hat to stay at home moms. You're brave you're wise and you're overworked And underpaid There are parents teachers that pornography is an art form and should be an elective in college Because you can go to most colleges and pornography as a class that you can take Yeah, so the next time you Want to shell out all these thousands of dollars to send junior off to college? You might want to rethink that one a little bit That's okay for public schools to pass out condoms to kids, but not bibles That's okay for public schools to abort your daughter's baby without informing you Like I just told you Our parents teaches that that breaking an eagle's egg is a greater crime than killing an unborn baby That recycling is a greater faux pas than losing your virginity before marriage Boy, you got to be peer pressure You got to recycle Nothing wrong with recycling. I'm all for it But to think that that's a greater problem than losing your virginity before marriage Our parents didn't teach us that At homosexuality was just an alternative lifestyle harmless And socially and should be socially acceptable And two people of the same gender could possibly constitute a marriage that our parents teach us that That an eight-year-old has this has the right to choose his own gender Did our parents teach us that That the public school system should make unisex bathrooms a law Or that the police are evil and can't be trusted did our parents teach us that No, but our culture has Your parents probably didn't teach you any of these things But like I said our culture has and dare I say in most cases Um A lot of the church have bought have bought into these things And if if the adults in the churches haven't bought into these things their kids don't sure have So as parents until we get very intentional With ourselves and with our kids Back to romans 12 too. We risk being a part of america's problem rather than Being part of the solution to america's problem And we also risk suffering the same heartaches and headaches As the garden variety heathen Why because when we conduct our affairs in the same foolish sinful and rebellious way that many americans conduct their affairs today Then we're messing with god's ecosystem Just like they are And there are consequences To following the wide road that leads to destruction And there are blessings for entering through the narrow gate Again, like I said last night, we can't live like hell and expect heaven for a reward just not going to happen And if we must impress an audience again, let's impress And encourage our kids to impress that audience of one Despite the times that we live in You know guys if you're doing a piano recital and the whole crowd yawning because you're you're born in the tears Except the master who taught you he's on his feet and he's he's he's applauding To what he hears is satisfying music to his ears Because you're playing his music like he taught you There's no need to impress the rest of the crowd So the only one that matters in life is the one who has the authority and the power to secure our eternal destiny And really because of the cross he already has Used to be easy to be a christian in america lukewarm as we may have been But I think that that was actually part of our problem And again, these are the days of god's pruning to see who really is The genuine article I'm not questioning anyone's salvation. Okay. I'm not even the lukewarmers. I'm not their judge, but I would like to see an assurance of my salvation And I'm not judgmental and either was jesus when he said that we're to be fruit inspectors You'll know them by their fruit and that implies a judgment Not hypocritical self-righteous judgment, but one of assessment And so we need to be assessing our families. How are we raising our kids? Are we allowing the world to train them in their thinking? Are we allowing the world to help them process thought the way the world process is thought? Are we training them the process thought the way Thought is supposed to be processed Next session. I'm going to be talking more about the other parent. We're in digital technology specifically And then how to regain preeminence and authority in our kids lives. Okay. We have any questions? Yes, ma'am Okay. Okay. Thank you


Our next speaker, the Magdalena Balmaseda. Magdalena is the head of the Earth System Predictability section at ECMWF, and also gave a lecture at our student colloquium a couple of weeks back. Thanks for that, Magdalena, and thank you. OK, thank you, Anish and Judith, for giving me the opportunity to present some work from ECMWF. Let me share my screen. Today I'm going to talk about some recent work. This time it's on seasonal forecast rather than subsistional. And it's on the impact of recent Indian Ocean variability on seasonal forecasts. There are two specific topics. One is the Indian Ocean impact on the two-year El Nino of 2014, 15, 15, and 16, the implications for the two-year predictability. This is some research that has been published. The other is in preparation by Redis Senan and is the recent impact of the Indian Ocean SST anomalies on the positive El Nino of DJF in 2019 and 2020. So I start with the first one. If for whatever the reason, I get cut, please turn me, because my Wi-Fi is not so good. And I'm going to switch off my camera. Yeah, so let me go back to the presentation. So we had a look at the big El Nino of 2015 and 16, and we compared it with the 97-98, that it was the previous larger El Nino in terms of sea surface temperature anomaly. And we had a look at the energy budget. So during El Nino, we know that the Ocean Pacific discharged its heat. Quite a lot of heat goes to the atmosphere, as we can see here, for 97-98. The net balance of ocean heat content before and after El Nino in 97-98, it was quite a large discharge. I cannot remember the use, but sorry, realize that they are not there. And well, that was just a diagram of what is the energy cycle for 97-98. And in contrast for 2015 and 16, the Pacific Ocean, the Tropical Pacific, didn't discharge the continued quite well charge of heat. And the impact of the atmosphere was substantially smaller. So it didn't release so much energy into the atmosphere. But there was a big difference between the two events that it was due to the Indonesian through-flow. You know that during the El Nino, the Indonesian through-flow weakens, and there is not so much heat export into the Indian oceans. If we talk anomalies, this is equivalent to anomalous import of heat. And that was extremely large in 2015 and 16. And you can see it in terms of time series from ocean re-analysis that the volume and heat fluxes associated with Indonesian through-flow were really unprecedented. It's very weak. And this also can be seen in the strength of the Indonesian through-flow. It's proportional to the sea level gradients between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific. So we started investigating why it was, what happens, why was the Indian Ocean, the Indian Indonesian through-flow so weak during this year? So those are the questions that we were trying to answer. Was this weakening predictable, the Indonesian through-flow transport predictable at internal time scales? What was the role of the Indian Ocean state on this weakening? Did the Indian Ocean state influence the weak El Nino of 2014 and 15 and the strong of 2015? And does the Indian Ocean state influence the predictability of ensuing the two in the second year more generally? So for that to answer these questions, we set up a seasonal forecasting experiment based on system five, the operational system up to 24 months, starting the 1st of February, 2014. And the experiments consisted on swapping the Indian Ocean initial conditions, replacing the ones in 2014 by the ones in 1997 and combinations of the kind. And we launched several 50 ensemble members. So these are the preamble to see whether the methodology will work. The first thing that we can see on the right-hand side is the Indonesian through-flow. We see the black line is the analysis accumulated over the two years. And we see that the seasonal forecast indeed captured this weakening. I mean, positive values means towards the Pacific. When we replace the Indian Ocean by components of 97, 98 Indian Ocean, this Indian Indonesian through-flow doesn't work. So there is indication that the Indian Ocean matters and is predictable as well. And then the other thing was what was the impact of that on the Indian Ocean here? We see how Miller diagrams. This is the observed anomalies from the analysis, 97 minus 2014 in sea surface temperature, keep content, solar winds and velocity potential across the equator. And you can see that these two events, 97 was much stronger than 2014. And it was followed by La Nina, while in 2014, I mean, 2015 was a very big enemy. That was a big difference. And you can see it in sea surface temperature and you see this huge propagation of a negative anomaly of heat content as well. And then different feedbacks, the bernet feedback as well. So in our experiments, seasonal forecast experiments, if we take the forecast in 97 minus the forecast in 2014, we see that they capture to certain extent the ensemble mean captures this strength, stronger warming in year one and stronger cooling in year two. And now we go to the swap experiments. And here what I'm showing is the difference, the impact of the experiments where we put the Indian Ocean initial condition from 97 minus the reference. Everything else is like in 2014. And you can see that in fact, the Indian Ocean in 97 would have produced a much warmer ENSO in year one and it would have produced a colder event in year two. And you can also see the indication of some Indian Ocean diaper developing in the autumn of the first year. You can also see that there is quite a large signal in the second year coming in the ocean heat content. If we just change the Indian Ocean in the surface in the upper 20 meters, we see that some impact just coming from the atmospheric bridge. But we see that impact and that's visible in the first year but it's not so visible in the second year. So looking at extremes, what we looked is classified in different types of events, extra strong and Nino moderate warming, neutral or La Nina in the, for year one and year two and in 2014, we saw that most of the ensemble members predicted moderate and Nino with some extreme. That contrasted very much with the 97, 98 where the probability of very extreme and Nino was quite high. And as we see the probability of very strong La Nina. When we show up the ocean, the Indian Ocean, what we see is the probability of the warm event with 97, 98 Indian Ocean, it increased the probability of extreme and Nino at also increased the probability of La Nina in the second year. So this is a clear indication that the Indian Ocean affects the predictability both years of extreme event. And these other diagrams, what we try to say is to condition that of the strength of the Indonesian through flow. The Indonesian through flow is weak. No, it's a strong with the 97, 98. And the ones that they have a strong ITF, they tend to produce La Nina in the second year as we can see here. And with the weak ITF, the PDF is shifted to the right towards warm conditions in the second year. And this Indonesian through flow, I'm going to go quite quickly here, this difference, this weakening is clearly different from the internal variability from the impact of El Nino. So the difference that we have cannot be attributed to the impact of El Nino. It has to be something else. So the questions are raising this, what caused that unprecedented weakening? And one possibility is the preceding PDO event because it's consistent with this in each of the sea level gradient across the maritime continent. So in the preceding PDO, the winds will have and raise the sea level in the Indian Ocean in favor of weakening of the through flow. So what are the prospects of the predictability of ENSO GR2 for two years time scale? And what are the windows of opportunities that have that change related to changes in the PDO? There is also the implication for interpreting the seasonal forecast. As you know, in 2014, we were very eager to announce a big El Nino coming, but actually the forecast was quite probabilistic. Had we had the second year, the two years forecast and had we seen the probability of extreme El Nino was already there in for the second year and not probability of La Niña, maybe we had issued a different, interpreted the forecast different. And so that's one part. The second part it has to do with this positive NEO over that affected the weather over Europe in 2019. 20 DJF, you can see here in era five. I show seasonal forecast, but it was most of the seasonal forecasting model predicted this very well, which is an unusual occurrence because the NEO usually is poorly predicted. So we try to say, okay, what we had the option repeat the same experiments, but not with the couple model, but with observed SSDs. We also have similar results. And this uncoupled experimentation will allow us to answer some questions, what was the role of the sea surface temperature anomalies in different basins. You can see here that in 2019 and 20, there were very strong SSD anomalies in the Indian Ocean. And that were very well predicted. So we did that. There are several experiments here. I only show the results from two. In the left column, it shows the impact of the, when we have the system type with observed SSD, another experiment where we replace the Indian Ocean with climatological values. And in this case, in the right column, is when we replace the Pacific Ocean with climatological values. 200 kPa, merional winds, 200 kPa geopotential height, and the Rosby wave surface. So you can see that the NEO footprint is much stronger. It's a strong associated with the Indian Ocean SSD anomalies. So the results are consistent with a yield type response to heating, tropical heating, plus westward propagation of Rosby waves. So this westward propagation is a little bit not so common because traditionally we only think on Rosby wave propagating eastward. If that's the case, then they have to travel a long way before reaching Europe. And that's probably that was the reason for the low predictability. But several studies among them, one that explains it very well is Shaman and Superman in 2016, sorry, is that if you have not sonally symmetric flow, but sonally asymmetric flow, and with very low sonal wave numbers, this westward propagation is possible, especially on the North Africa and Egypt, because you have very high values of potential vertical gradients and the sonal flow is not so strong. That means that the geographic proximity of the Indian Ocean to Europe, it will favor the predictability and the signal to noise ratio. Further experiments show that this response is modulated by the amplitude of the Indian Ocean SSD, and also by modulated by ENSO. So in 2018, there was no ENSO and that favored the strong response of a year. Just a couple more minutes. Yeah, I just finished after showing these results. And these two examples, to my mind, they show that the variability of the Indian Ocean has serious implications for seasonal forecasts. And both the weak ITF in 2014 and 16 was responsible for the two-year warm event that was likely predictable. One conjecture is that this weak ITF was induced by the preceding PDO phase. It could be by climate change, but this is a question, it's an invitation to opinions. The other one was that unprecedented high seasonal predictability of the NAO in DJF is attributed to the Indian Ocean anomalies. If this SSD anomalies that they are linked to climate change continue to raise, it may have implication for seasonal predictability of the Europe. Both cases have implications for the design and interpretation of seasonal forecast system. So how to extract information from a seasonal forecast in the context of a climate change in climate? A first option, that's what we do now, is to have long enough records of pre-forecast. But even if we could afford it, would this be enough? Would it be a good assessment of a scale in a non-stationary climate? Because we may see next year, we may see the unseen. So do we need to have more insight into the processes leading to, involved in the predictions? And the second question is, do you think that seasonal outlooks, offensive at the second year would be useful? And that's it. Thank you very much for your attention. Thanks a lot. Again, it was really interesting impacts of the Indian Ocean. Any questions for Magdalena? So I had one, Magdalena. You mentioned about the climate change aspect as well and how it would impact future prediction, right? And the Indian Ocean seems to be the region where the warming, at least as per historical records, the warming is more than other regions and other global oceans. And how much would this trend be a source of predictability versus it would make the scale worse in the future if it continues this way and the Indian Ocean continues to warm more than the Pacific, for instance? Would that help improve the seasonal prediction because there is the trend and maybe the model can pick up on the trend or would it make it more difficult with the Indian nation through the flow of changing? I mean, I don't know. I mean, first of all, I mean, I made the link with climate change because it's the gut feeling, but this has to be demonstrated indeed. So I think there is a lot of research to do. So there are two aspects regarding the Indian Ocean impact over Europe. The response seems to be quite... If you... Depends on the amplitude. But imagine that if the Indian Ocean is to continue to rise, the only thing is that they may not rise out in thin item. So how? How? So, but there will be a saturation point, but it will have implications. So I think we need to understand. But it's true that there are contrasting impacts because on one hand you have the Indian Ocean warming, but also the Indian Ocean warming could be more warming in the Pacific, the other Indonesian through flow. So maybe there are competing impacts. And here in this case, they were very isolated cases. If we put the two together, I don't know. Yeah, that's a good question. Great. Thanks, Matin. Jan, you have a question in the chat. Yeah, thanks, Matin, for this great talk. Very impressive results. I was wondering the results you showed with the winter 1920 and the higher predictability for the NAO. I remember that there was also a strong polar vortex in the stratosphere. And so I was wondering if you looked at the influence of that on the overall predictability of the NAO and especially if the combination to the results you showed, because there was an influence on that. We have looked a little bit. So the Indian Ocean seems to have an impact on the strengthening of the polar vortex. But in our predictions, at least in our system, those are largely canceled by the impact of the Pacific. So the polar vortex and the eastward propagation of Rosby waves in our system and the Pacific and the Indian Ocean cancel each other. More or less. So the source of what? Mostly. I mean, there is a little bit of eastward propagation of Rosby wave, but the sources of potential of Rosby wave at the exit of the jet, they are in the opposite direction, both of them. And the same with the polar vortex. The outcome is that the Pacific influences dominates. So probably the polar vortex doesn't strengthen as much in normal model as in observations, but it's huge spread by the way. So we don't know whether it's predictable. Thank you very much for that very good question. Yeah, thanks for explaining it. Thanks, yeah. And thanks again, Mike. I was really fascinating talking. You findings with seasonal prediction and yeah.


The Shelburne Street Roundabout Project is a collaboration between the City of Burlington's Department of Public Works and the Vermont Agency of Transportation. Roundabouts, which are different from rotaries and traffic circles, are one-way, non-signalized intersections where traffic moves in a counterclockwise direction around a central island. The four main components of a roundabout include a landscaped raised central island, a truck apron to allow large vehicles extra space for turning, a circulatory roadway where cars enter and exit, and splitter islands on the outside to reduce vehicle speeds upon entry and channel vehicles into the roundabout. Drivers approach the intersections slowly while scanning for pedestrians and bicyclists and yield to those waiting to cross the street. Drivers yield at the roundabout entry, giving right of way to approaching traffic inside the roundabout. Drivers inside the roundabout should never stop or yield the right of way to vehicles waiting to enter the roundabout. Drivers circle around until they reach their desired exit and use a turn signal to indicate their intention to vehicles waiting to enter the roundabout. If a driver misses their intended exit, the vehicle can circle the roundabout until they reach it again. As they exit, drivers scan for pedestrians and bicyclists and yield to those waiting to cross the street. If you are approaching the roundabout as an emergency vehicle approaches, allow them to proceed through the roundabout entirely before you enter. If you are in the roundabout when an emergency vehicle approaches, continue to your exit and after leaving the roundabout move over to allow the emergency vehicle to pass. Do not stop within the roundabout. Navigating for pedestrians. Pedestrians will approach and navigate the intersection using the sidewalks and shared use paths. For those pedestrians seeking to cross the street, they should push the signal button to activate strobe lights that indicate to approaching drivers that there is someone prepared to use a crossbow. Pedestrians should look in the direction of flowing vehicles until there is a gap in traffic or a vehicle yields to the pedestrian. Once it is safe, they can cross the street. Navigating for bicyclists. Bicyclists will approach and navigate the intersection using either the streets or shared use path when available depending on their comfort level. For those bicyclists using the streets, they will navigate the intersection entirely as if they were a vehicle. The same rules for signaling and yielding right of way to two pedestrians that apply to vehicles also apply to bicyclists. For those bicyclists using the street on approach to the roundabout but would rather use the sidewalks and shared use path to navigate the roundabout, the bicyclists will be able to exit the street using the paved bike ramps to enter the shared use path. At crosswalks, the bicyclists will follow the same rules as a pedestrian to cross the streets. After leaving the intersection, the bicyclists will then have the choice to return to the street using the provided bike ramps or remain on the sidewalks. For more information, please visit the project website or contact the project team. Thank you.


Fool me once, Mr. Goat, Mr. Rings On Rings On Rings. Fool me once, Mr. Will he be able to stay away? Does he have that in him is the prevailing question. Will he be at Fox next year? Coaching in his future? Is he done? And honestly, after watching this 80 for Brady thing, I'm convinced he could be an actor. I really am. There's one scene in this movie where I said, oh, okay, Stephen A. Smith, you think that Rollersbrook on General Hospital is safe and not so fast after you see Tom Brady with Billy Tomlin in this thing? I don't know if Brad Pickett's another role in this town with that chiseled cheek maniac Tom Brady taken over. I don't know.


Welcome to All Hands Update, I'm Petty Officer Ian Cotter. If you've wondered what life in a foreign military is like, you might get the opportunity to find out. The Navy's Personnel Exchange Program, or PEP, allows selected sailors to do a one-for-one exchange with personnel from a foreign military. The PEP helps strengthen partnerships by sharing professional knowledge and standard operating procedures. Applicants must be able to serve as military ambassadors of the U.S. and demonstrate cultural sensitivity. Participants will receive normal pay and allowances, but may receive special allowances based on their final assignment. If this program interests you, talk to your rating detailer. For a full list of participating countries, eligibility, and application procedures, visit the PEP webpage on the Navy Personnel Command website.


Togo Foundation is no stranger to St. Lucia and St. Lucia. We are particularly proud that in the midst of the pandemic, between 2020 and February 2022, Togo Foundation has been able to make a number of significant donations to St. Lucia and St. Lucia. Last year, Togo shipped about, I think, 16,000 tons of food to St. Lucia that was distributed by various organizations in St. Lucia. And today we're particularly pleased to have Taj Weeks and Angela Weeks of Togo Foundation here with us, as well as Eustace Vitalis, who is no stranger to St. Lucia, to be able to facilitate this handover of personal protective equipment to the COVID Management Centre in St. Lucia. So my task really is just to say why we are here. I think this is a moment for the Chairman of the COVID Management Centre and for Taj and Angela from Togo Foundation. Mr. Cleeter Springer, Chairman of the COVID Management Centre, will also speak about who's here and how this PPE will be apportioned and why. Welcome to this small, symbolic, but very significant ceremony, if you want to put it that way. You know, many of us speak of love of our country. Some of us express that love and Taj and Angela Weeks and the Togo Foundation, in my opinion, embody are the embodiment of love of country. And I remember distinctly when I received his very cryptic text saying that he has some stuff, he has some stuff for us, and he wanted to send it to a source that he would be sure that it would get to the intended destination. And so I said to him that I had in mind very clearly the respiratory hospital and the bodily correctional facility as the two beneficiaries of his gesture. And I'm very pleased today to be able to join Taj and Angela to say thanks to them for the magnanimous gesture as Barbara has told you. This is nothing new for them. They've been doing this for many, many years and the Togo Foundation is world renowned for its generous work. This COVID pandemic has made a severe dent in government's finances. There's no way that a country like ours with its limited resources can endure a pandemic like this. And we were always going to be relying on support from well wishes around the world and governments have also chipped in and Taj, thank you, from the bottom of my heart. And I say this on behalf of all solutions. This equipment is going to be put to very good use, I can assure you. It is going to save lives. I feel of that I'm certain. So thanks again. I want to introduce now our chief hardworking. The need I say that everybody knows that she's hardworking. I don't know how she does it. I mean, it's 24 seven for her and I keep saying to her, you know, try to take some rest on the weekend. But she says, Mr. Springer, it's part of the job. And I have enormous respect and admiration for her and I want to invite Dr. Sharon Delma George to say a few words. I just want to indicate that this is our third year of managing COVID-19 in country. And with partners such as the Toko Foundation, I just want to express sincere gratitude for this very timely donation. It is going to go a very long way. The protection of our health care workers and our patients. And we have been working with the Baudelaire Correctional Facility as we have managed a few outbreaks at that facility. So I think the chair was very he gave very good advice when he indicated two of the very important areas that those personal protect the personal protective equipment that's going to be donated today to to go to. So I just want to really express gratitude on behalf of the Ministry of Health, Wellness and Early Affairs. I know the PS and also I want to apologize on behalf of the Minister who's who's doing a recording for the for the new protocols this afternoon. He would have liked to to be here this afternoon, but is not able to to be. So just let me express gratitude and say thank you for the collaboration. I hope we can continue in various ways supporting because we don't know how long we will continue managing COVID. So thank you so much. On behalf of the management and staff of the Baudelaire Correctional Facility and the extension, the Ministry of Home Affairs, I would like to thank the Toco Foundation immensely for the contribution of PPE to the Baudelaire Correctional Facility. Most specifically, I would like to thank Mr. Taj Weeks and his wife for making that effort, that tremendous effort that even during the pandemic, they are able to go out and seek donations on behalf of the facility. It's not I know from the end, well, based on the reputation, they would have gotten some of these items for the facility. But in these times, it is it is a lot for one to give it is a lot for one to go out and to seek these donations and to get it within the quick time that they did. But let me just also thank Mr. Springer. I had a short conversation with Mr. Springer, the chair of the Covid Management Center. And soon after that conversation, he asked me, what is it that you all need? It was not a question of food or water. It was just what is it that you all need? And once I sent the list to him, he told me he will work on the list and one of our needs, one of our greatest needs at that time was the PPE. And he said he will make it happen. He assured me that it will happen and he kept me abreast. As to where these things were during that period. So I'd like to thank Mr. Springer immensely for his efforts and everybody else who worked together with him. It's been a while since I wanted to meet Mr. Weeks. He has passed very close to me, even while I was at the Boys Training Center. But finally, he has some connection now with Borderline. So now we will not let him go. He will be a part of us and we will be looking forward to his some some collaboration with him to see how best we can move this facility forward from where it is. One thing I must add before I leave is that this pandemic has hit prisons around the region in a very, very, very serious manner. For Borderline, we have 700 individuals working in a small environment. So you can well imagine when one person is infected, how this disease can spread among everybody else. So that has been our case. So we are now on our third or fourth wave right now and we are trying to manage it as best as possible. This set of items, this PPE that we have just received there will go a long, long way because up to last week it was struggling. So I'm hoping by Monday and Monday afternoon we can make the distributions as we ought to. But let me see. It is very timely and Mr. Weeks and your your wife and everybody else who contributed to it. Thank you very much. I have been keeping Dr. Belma very busy, as Mr. Terrence, Mr. Belma. Thank you so much. Let me thank the Ministry of Health and their team who work behind the scenes and everybody else who made that effort to see that this facility yet worth it. This is for thanks a lot. Thank you very much. We are truly happy to be here, more so for the sunshine done for all of this as we left with some serious snowfalling. So we're really happy. But but there's a level of sadness, though, that I have to speak about that somebody would have been standing behind us or between us or giving me two jokes in between. Valerie Albert is no longer here. And she was such a vital part of Tokyo. So I have to acknowledge that first before I do anything else. Thank you. Thank you. Valerie and I had lots of plans. We made lots of plans to do lots of things. And we were getting caught in agricultural projects and school projects. But Tokyo came and I'm happy we were able to pivot, you know, to be able to satisfy this need. But before I do all this, I have to acknowledge two people who are Elemon and Alex, who are friends of mine from Oregon, who too have a charity and are part of helping me do this. So I need to acknowledge them. All right. Hey, listen, covid is it everybody everywhere? And I'm really, really happy that we could augment what was happening on the ground by bringing these with us. We brought, I think, over 10,000 masks, over 20,000 shields, about 36,000 pairs of gloves and they have different assortments of goggles and mask. And I think we're happier to give than everybody is happy to receive. So on behalf of the team and Elemon Alex, we say, thank you.


Going on everybody got Cal and Shawn here with late sports cards have been five boxes of 2023 bowman's best youth football This one is for Evan Y. Good luck. Good luck sir. Let's see we got five boxes a decent Q now guys got a case of moments best coming up a sapphire box and A couple of meat leaf metals so got about an hour on the Q now guys we may want to get something going Yeah, me too me too, man.  It's gonna be Kayla Williams on these studio stars Nice orange there to 25 Gold right behind it's a 50 Richard Reese for Baylor Richard Reese Got a Travis Hunter refractor to 50 John Reese Plumlee for UCF the 150 Malik Benson It's a 99 Chris Vazina green at mini diamond and yellow to 75 is gonna be Olufashani a Penn State Nice color coming up There's a Joe Milton the 75 elements of the game auto Joe Milton Tennessee QB And nice one here to 10 we got a red auto of Sam Hartman. That's the Notre Dame QB. Nice one there on the Red seven out of ten Very nice one there Notre Dame's QB And on the back we have a Pash auto of Brock Bowers Another nice one there gonna be a top top tight end taking the draft There's much of a question about that nice one there out of Georgia Brock Bowers Box two. They got a gold masterpieces Dante Moore and orange a 25 Justice Allison Wake And auto is gonna be James Williams to 15 out of the you the you 15 refractor Drew Aller Got to 150 Kendall Milton and to 100 Justice Haynes Justice Haynes So K Gibbs, how we doing today to 99 Joe Milton on the green mini diamond and to 150 Bronson Barron Bronson Barron Got a Dallin Hayden refractor Nice one there for Ohio State and nice one on the back is orange a 25 on the elements of the game auto It's gonna be Michael Penn X jr. Oh Nice one there that is 25 out of 25 And a mag on that nice pinnacle for you go Evan and be on a team here coming up I'm not sure which one, but someone's gonna be taking him in the draft Michael Penn X action Nice orange. I like those elements autos Gold to 50 studio stars jade not No, no hockey today. No hockey today. I don't think we even have any for listed for personal so Not sure when the next hockey will be not sure to these stars and nice one. There's JJ McCarthy to five This one there the Michigan QB on the white refractor five out of five JJ Face as a rock you got to 100 Michael Williams 1099 Brielyn Trice and gold to 50 down Hayden. We have a Marvin Harrison. That's when they're blue to 150 I got you. Yeah, we don't have a don't have a ton of it when we do get it. We we go through it pretty quick There's a gold to 50 Kindle Milton for Georgia where fracter auto is gonna be K club Nick for Clemson and On the back. We have a die-cut orange auto wanted bandit of Kool-aid McKenstreet This one there the DB for Bama Kool-aid Got two more. Good luck here Evan See what we got masterpieces Dorian singer It's a 15 Donovan Edwards for Michigan fractors Damien Martinez To 100 Kindle Milton to 99 Jane DeLora and called the 50 Julian Fleming Ohio State have a tray Benson to 150 on the blue for the notes and Gold auto 50 is gonna be Joe Milton second one of these for Tennessee Yeah, I know a lot of people gonna be chasing those a corner Bedard young guns moose. I'm sure that I'm sure of that There is a 75 a mech egg bokeh another one for Ohio State on the masterpieces auto And on the back we have gold to 50 gonna be Brandon and it's for Ohio State freshman receiver for Ohio State One more box. Good luck Evan. My high standouts. That one's gonna be on Travis Hunter and Shador to 50 Colorado got gold to 50 Walker Howard orange to 25 on the front is Cam rising Usually a refractor in front. There it is right there, bro. Nick's on the refractor Got tray Benson in 99 gold to 50 as a rock you and to 150 of mech egg bokeh We've got to 100 that was gonna be Jarquez Hunter Out of Auburn and base auto Andrew McCuba for Clemson and another dual auto for you, sir It's gonna be a KJ Jefferson and Raheem Sanders to 25 Sean's boys from Fayetteville Six out of 25 Sanders and KJ Jefferson from Arkansas another dual auto there for you Evan And then on the back we have another Michael Pennix Jr. This time on the patch auto Not numbered base patch auto there we go another Michael Pennix Here we go, mr. Evan that'll do it for you, sir on the five boxes some really nice ones there We'll get those right out to you, sir. Thank you. Thank you