Hello everyone, welcome to the session of Monte Carlo simulation and risk analytics. In the previous two sessions, we have discussed the details of Monte Carlo simulation and its application. We have also discussed the basic information of system dynamics. Today, we will discuss the risk analytics part using ADRIX software. We will understand the basic features of this risk analytics software called ADRIX software. It was earlier available by Palisade and now there is another company called Lumivero. They have acquired Palisade and now it is available on the website of Lumivero. 15 days trial version are available, you can download it and you can practice at home. But today I will show you how the software works, the risk analytics software. The fundamental of the software are based on Monte Carlo simulation. We have already understood, we will utilize that particular concept of use of Monte Carlo simulation in the background of the software and then we will illustrate couple of case applications. The case applications could be basic exploratory data analysis and say cost and budget estimation, then NPV calculation as well as you will see different aspects of NPV calculation under risk. And then you know product mix problem which is very popular in manufacturing sector or inventory optimization process and then we will study insurance analytics, decision tree analysis and if time permits we will discuss supply chain disruption and one or two another application say in financial sectors. So, let us begin the software and understand how the risk analytics can be used for prediction or for you know taking a better decision making in the context of business analytics or say business forecasting. Basic Excel you can see here, now in this Excel you can see the address part is not been installed yet. So, what we will do or add in yet, so what we are going to do now we will go install it. So, let us see here you can see that at this 7.5 version is installed in my desktop, so I am going to install it or add in it in my Excel, now if you click the Excel you can see that at this part has come now, but in your laptop or in your Excel it is not available we have to buy it, but you can download it for trial version for 15 days trial version and you can practice.  First in the previous session in simulations I have already illustrated a sales promotion problem you can remember that, but let us go detail on that with basic problem of this particular software. Because here I am writing say cost equals to say you know say 200 and say you know say revenue basic problem I am writing now say equals to say 300 say profit equals to revenue minus cost. So, you can see the basic calculation we have done it here, now what I am going to do I will make cost as some risk parameter suppose I am assuming it is a triangular distribution suppose you can define any distribution suppose you know most likely is 200 and minimum is 180 and maximum is say 220 if you wish you can make it you can change this also suppose you want to make it say 150 say right you can do it and say max most likely say 250 you do it 250 say right. So, now you can see you can put any other you know ranges of data as per the actual data set for based on the experts opinion suppose we have made it the cost as triangular distribution we are assuming the investment of the cost or say to some extent random in nature and it is following say triangular distribution for the sake of illustration, but when you have actual data you can feed the distribution and you can also that also you can feed the distribution and you can use that distribution function in your system analysis or the problem of case. Now suppose revenue revenue is suppose following some because you know based on the cost if the cost is uncertain or the investment is varying that means your revenue will also change. So, now suppose we are making suppose your say revenue is following say uniform distribution suppose. So, we have considered it as a uniform distribution here you can see and if you would like to see the you would like to make the changes of that. So, here you can make changes say suppose we will make 250 say we will make little variation of that. So, that max say 350 suppose now look at the input or say investment or cost of your business which is triangular which is following triangular distribution with most likely value of 200 and revenue is of 300 and it has a range of lower side of which is following uniform distribution suppose based on the past data you can see we can put any other distribution also here for the sake of illustration I have put uniform distribution which is following say you know 250 to 350. Now your profit will not be the fixed in the deterministic case it was fixed now it will change because your any every simulation when you run the problem your cost input or investment will not be 200 it may vary with the range of triangular distribution and the revenue will also change based on uniform distribution. So, in every simulations you will put one input of cost and one output of revenue and the corresponding difference will come as a profit. So, that cannot be fixed now. So, we are making as a risk output as per the software whatever the output cell you are mentioning or you are calculating that should be mentioned as a risk output you can put the you can change the name here also by invited comma suppose I am keeping as it is now look at the output cell it is a risk output it is not a 7 minus f6 it is a risk output plus here you can put the name of the you know whatever you can mention suppose you can mention profit say what we will do we will run the simulation suppose let us run it say say for 1000 iterations say now you run the simulation lets you what happens. So, look at we have got the profit of 1000 iteration and here you can see the entire analysis are been or statistical output are been put in the right hand side here. So, in the deterministic case what you have done in the deterministic case you could do maximum the revenue minus cost and the corresponding profit there is no variation, but here what you have done based on the previous data historical data the pattern or the experts opinion or deductive method or you know historical analogy you realize that the cost or say investment follow some triangular distribution for the sake of illustration and revenue which is 300 in general on average, but it also has a variation which is following suppose uniform distribution in that case the route which is profit will not be the fixed it will also vary here we have seen we can see here we have done 1000 simulation we can see all 1000 iteration are been posted here and we can see the mean here the lower bound of your profit could be 12 rupees only and the maximum value could it could go up to 190 where in deterministic case it was 100 only, but the mean since we have done 1000 iteration on an average mean will be whatever the variation of cost or the investment and the revenue are there, but effectively your mean will almost will be almost nearby to the deterministic case the mean the average value expected outcome of your profit would be around 100 here we are getting 100 say if you reduce the number of simulation it might change, but here we have taken 1000 iteration which is quite good so here you can see mean is this and the 90% confidence interval you can see the plus minus changes I will show you later also and look at the mean, median, mode all you are getting through this output only of your profit so this advantage you will be able to get through this very scanalytic software and you can make a better prediction and better statistical decision in making in your organization also and here you can see the standard deviation, but look at the standard deviation is 35 so here the mean is 100, but standard deviation is been coming here because the data the input data cost and revenue are changing so therefore your profit the expected profit now it is not a simple profit it is expected profit the expected profit is coming out to be 100 and standard deviation is coming out to be say 35 percent and you can see the confidence interval here so here 99% 90% 95% all 80% all confidence interval also will project to you given to you now if you like to see the more detail of this particular graph here you can see this 5% means what that there is a chance that your profit may go above 159.4 and how much the chance is 5% and what is the confidence interval 90% 90% confidence intervals we can see 43.8 to 159.4 so in between that profit your confidence interval says that 90% confidence interval says that your profit will lie between 43 in the lower side and maximum it can go up to 159 you are 90% confident on that here 5% outlight outlayer you can see here look at it may go above 159 also it can go below 43 also the chance is 5% suppose you want to see that I want my profit should be minimum 50 say you want to put it here so let's see your profit minimum 50 look at here and the chance is quite high and here you can see it may go down below 50 the chance is 8.1% here so this type of analysis you can do also you can see only 1.4% that profit may go above 170 and if you want to make say you know 100 look at almost 50% look at almost 50% chance that it may go above 49.4% it may go above 100 rupees because we have found the mean at mean as 100 rupees so here if you want to say you know 10% you can see the changes in your confidence interval and the profit range also also one more part let me illustrate it suppose let me keep as it is say say 5% here I am keeping and suppose here I am keeping say 5% say okay now you can see the how much is your risk or value at risk you can also check here also though it is a profit function you can calculate the cost function also if it is a supply chain problem or say manufacturing problem or say marketing sales analysis or say financial data analysis so in that case you can see your you know value at risk in the right hand side and the left hand side so this part you can calculate also how much value of your profit or your cost are above that 5% you can also calculate you can calculate the if you take the average of it you may calculate the conditional value at risk also so many more analysis you can do through this you know at risk analytics software which is available through their website and now if you like to see the tornado graph the among the cost and revenue which making maximum variation to your profit if you click here you can see the tornado graph and here it says that the revenue is making maximum variation to your profit look at here that means that if you keep cost as a static variable that means if you do not change cost keep a fixed value of cost here you can see here look at here the static option I will show you there suppose you know if you click the cost part here look at the risk static that means this part means that look at the range of triangular distribution of cost and look at the risk static it means that that cost will be fixed like deterministic case cost will not be varied similarly revenue can also be done so suppose we are analyzing the profit part and here if you see here I have already run the simulation so you do not need to run the simulation again unless you swipe it and close it now you can see the profit is to some extent is varied or explained by your revenue maximum if you keep fixed cost static or fixed similarly if you keep your revenue fixed in that case cost is making variation to your profit but quite less look at the variation of your profit look at here the variation of your profit through revenue is maximum so you can trigger that so if you can sell the product with little higher margin probably you will be able to generate more profit because it has a maximum variation so you can reduce the downside risk of your profit and you can increase the upside opportunity by increasing the revenue so this type of analysis tournament of graph analysis you can also see you can also you know observe the spider graph here look at the spider graph here so who is making maximum variation to your profit here you can see your actually revenue is making maximum variation to your profit now what I am going to show you so this is the data and we have done the you know basic simulation run of this particular software and we have analyzed a basic concept just one part you see here is a entire you know analysis part you can also actually just if you save it simulation run is already been done you can you know browse your result look at that automatically it is been done and also if you wish you can generate the report in any new workbooks say suppose quick report suppose we will write mention input and output and we will have to see it and we are generating report look at you have generated the report and this report you can actually look at all this part that I have shown you know look at the distribution function the cumulative value and the delta result that you found look at here how many iterations you have done how many input variable you had and then also the number of simulation you have run only one simulation and the number of iteration number of input data number of output data and also you know the duration of your simulation look at the output data sets enter summary statistics you found here with confidence interval lower bound upper bound mean value skewness cartosis look at that here we are getting the skewness cartosis of your profit function also and also you know the range mean median mode all these things you are able to see here and you can also which making maximum variation in your turner graph that also you can see here with the lower right lower side risk and upper side opportunity you can see this output also and you can copy this output and you can paste or save in world or you know ppt or you know in any presentation also so this type of or you know excel also so these are the analysis of the given like aspects the positive aspects of the software that you are getting through this particular analysis of risk analytics using Monte Carlo simulation now what we are going to discuss now go back to the you know main problem we look at these are the few more input and output data that we have analyzed so let me go back to the main file this was the main file here I am going to show you another interesting analysis let me run it again here the profit and if you see the browsing results look at here here what is your mean value the mean value is 100 right after 1000 simulation you can change the simulation number of iteration also suppose if you want to reduce the number of iteration to 500 or see you know 5 to increase to up to 5000 then all this analysis you can do also and you may get more you know mimicking process of the simulation output of your iteration now here if you see say you know standard deviation look at the standard deviation is 35 for this particular data analysis where input data the investment cost and the revenue are following some distribution and profit we have found it here which is also to some extent following little bit of normal distribution but we have found the data here or say in a bell safe car now here you can see the standard deviation remember the skewness cut-off is also you may calculate you can also see here but look at the standard deviation 35 remember the standard deviation is 35 and mean is 100 let me close it now what I am going to show you here is that in this case look at that the lower case of profit is how much 12 and maximum case is how much 190 12 and 190 and mean is sorry standard deviation is 35 remember 12 to 190 let me write down here the minimum value the minimum value is coming out to be 12 the maximum value is coming out to be 190 and mean is how much mean we are not discussing now so mean is how much 100 say standard deviation is how much 35 just note down ok with this data input here what we have done let me use the pen here you can see your cost this cost part look at the cost part this cost is following actually some triangular distribution where you may get a let me click it you will get to know look at the cost so this cost this is the cost function right here you can see it has a you know downside position of so 150 around on an average and upside it can go up to 250 and revenue you can see look at the revenue which is following also from 250 say 350 say now what happens in your 100,000 people understand the essence that I am trying to explain with you in basic simulation what happened in a particular iteration out of 1000 iteration in certain case you might got the lower cost value the lower cost side say say 160 you found 160 so in a particular simulation you have generated 160 through random number look at there I told you through the inverse function scheme of cumulative scheme you can generate from here some random function random number and then from corresponding graph you may get from the x axis you may get the x value the basic Monte Carlo simulation scheme through that suppose you have generated in a particular simulation you have generated 160 and you have generated revenue say maximum how much suppose 340 so in particular case suppose you are generating 160 as your cost and you are generating your revenue say 350 suppose so effectively what will be your profit profit will be the extreme case of revenue minus minimum investment cost so look at 190 profit you are getting right suppose you may get it so these are the extreme cases you are getting in your simulation case so you are making less investment but you are generating higher revenue this is not the true case in practice there should be correlation between investment and revenue that means if you invest less or if your cost expenditure is less generally your revenue should also be less but if you invest more your expenditure is high probably your revenue could also be high so that correlation we are not doing here we are randomly generating cost in every simulation one cost input and one revenue input and we are calculating profit so extreme cases are coming similarly there might be case that you know we are putting huge cost investment higher site of cost but you are getting lower site of profit or revenue higher site of cost and lower site of revenue in that case your profit will be very less so this extreme cases of simulations we are for instances we are trying to avoid how can you avoid that because that is the practical cases so there is a way to avoid that what you do so select them first either you can do so now the cost and revenue has come now suppose I am keeping a 80% correlation suppose 0.8 suppose I am assuming that select a location okay I am doing I am selecting the location suppose here so here what I have done I have created a correlation between cost and revenue how much is the correlation 80% say using the data you can fit it also sample data set suppose here we have generated the 80% correlation between or you have assumed 80% correlation between cost and revenue so higher the cost higher the revenue lower the investment lower the revenue now if you run your profits say after defining this correlation look at what output we are getting look at our mean is almost same look at our mean is almost same but see the output variation the minimum value now it has come to how much 53 and 148 really let me write down here 53 and here we found 148 look at the variation has come down look at and mean also is almost same but standard deviation look at only 17.4 17.4 so look at the analysis of comparative analysis now here come to home and if you put a color you will get to know the differences look at here in this case you have already calculated the output cell where the minimum maximum of your revenue or of your profit with the standard deviation of 35 but once you created a correlation between or not have assumed a correlation between input data and output revenue look at this is sample illustration in practice your problem statement may change your case analysis may change you might have a different case application so in that case this type of correlation you can build among the data sets so which will give you more practical insights about your data analysis so here I have shown you a basic example of cost revenue and profit here so here you can see since you put you have put a correlation between the input data here you can see your variation is coming down and here minimum is 53 rupees and maximum is 148 and your standard deviation look at standard deviation has come down to 17 because the actual correlation between cost and revenue are here this is one such illustration of this particular software I have shown you there are many more such analysis are been or the features are there in the software if you wish you can analyze that through which you can do better risk analytics or better predictive analytics or better business forecasting aspects of data modeling so here I will show you another interesting understanding of excluded data analysis suppose here we have kept a data sets it could be sales it could be profit it could be say revenue it could be say temperature it could be stock price it can be crude oil price it can be gold price it can be your manufacturing process analysis it can be you know in your financial data analysis whatever you can consider right so suppose we have found or some observations of say you know some particular experiment so suppose we have kept a data here of suppose random data I have generated around 50 data how many around 53 data I have generated here say randomly it is observation of any particular variables or say you know of your practical case now if you calculate the average of this data here is the average simple average I have taken and standard deviation I have calculated standard deviation I have calculated now what I am going to show you here is that suppose this data sets this data which is x I have mentioned here is a input say for example say sales right or say you know your temperature which will go to a system input to your analysis of a practical case suppose here system output I have mentioned here as a suppose a function of this input data x say sales or whatever which is nothing but say 2x plus 50 suppose I have written here 2x plus 50 for the sake of saving time I have written suppose the sample value 2x plus 50 which is a system output where this x the column A will go as input now in general what people do people cannot take this data directly right because these are the random data in next time period or next instances or next event what input will go there we do not know in general what people do people take their average and the average value come here as a system input and you find your total our system output as a say 102 simple calculation just mean mean of this data I have kept here this is nothing but simple mean right simple mean say mean of the data I have kept here and I have calculate the system output as it is now what I am going to show you rather than taking the average of the data into system output the system output could be many big problem or complex systems say rather than giving the input data as a mean value I am going to generate a random instances of this data say sales in every practical situation in future or every instances of my simulation. So, I am going to generate any value from this particular data sets in forthcoming instances rather than average value how to generate it first you have to consider that data pattern what type of the pattern the data follow so we have tried to test here look at this data is following some rich normal distribution how come let me run it here. So, data can follow certain distribution that also you can feed here. So, what I am going to do here define distribution say in this particular say okay distribution feed feed the distribution. So, I am going to select the data so I have selected the data and now I will see what type of distribution this data is following look at this data this 53 data I have plotted here and the software suggests that that this data follow normal distribution with the highest priority and then the second priority is the logistic distribution and the weibull and triangular one by one. So, since the software is suggesting normal distribution this data follow normal distribution we will consider this data representative as normal distribution. So, if you write in some cells say let us suppose write suppose here okay. So, we have feed the distribution now this was I have written I have calculated earlier but here I have shown you also live demonstration. So, this is what now the representative of this data set of column A so what we will do we will consider them as a representative of this data set suppose we are going to keep it as some say this one write this cell now this cell I will give as a input to this particular system output or say cost of feed or you know whatever temperature cells whatever. So, this system output will be considering not this average value of this data rather than this dynamic value of the data random value of the data and then we will calculate the system output. Suppose here I have calculated right what I have done now you can see same data to in order to save time we can do it anyway I can show you that calculation here also suppose it is nothing but 2 into x which is x the formula x plus 5 output cell. So, this is now my new x now it is a representative now not the average value plus a 50 right. So, this is different than this this one j say 9 is different than h second. So, this we are going to run now if you run it then you have to calculate you have to consider it as a risk output just click that risk output cell done ok. So, I can also mention it as a system output I can mention here also say system output say suppose I am writing here right system output ok done now let me run it look at here this system output is nothing but a distribution of data of output cell of 1000 simulations say you can reduce the number of simulation also not a matter. Suppose if you want to make a say 500 simulation we just run it again you can generate 500 simulations depending on your requirements or threshold point. So, now suppose you have run this particular data analysis what insights you will get it from here here you could see that your system output is dependent on the column x column a say, but you have not give you have not given the single it put the average value of that data the column number a as a input to the output cell or system output rather or every iteration of your simulation you are actually generating one input of your data set a or data set x and through simulation through Monte Carlo simulation by generating random number and you are from where you are generating from this particular cell right. This cell you are actually coming you are generating into your profit and this cells how to generate random input from there, but from this distribution normal distribution we have already discussed in the basic Monte Carlo simulation session through that you are generating one input every time in this particular cell through Monte Carlo simulation scheme and you are getting this output cell look at here this output cell here now and here you also you can see the confidence interval me in variance standard deviation skewness cut-offs is lower bound upper bound whatever you can make any changes of your data and you can make in a variation of your analysis and you can corresponding analysis we can predict in your management of the case of the presence. So, this is another exploratory data analysis, but there are many more you know I am going to show you one by one I am going to open another interesting file suppose cost estimation. So, this previous files now I am going to close otherwise both software both model will run and we may come up with the previous running file. So, now here at the software is already been installed I do not have to reinstall it again. So, now at the software is here here you can see this is a very interesting case application in specifically in the project management industry cost and budget analysis. Suppose you will have to you know create one of your say project or some you know some construction or whatever or you want to bid something for a particular company in that case suppose you have assumed that suppose this is example of project management industry. So, this way I will elaborate or I will illustrate, but it can be applied in other domain also. Suppose here you can see the land cost the building cost construction of the building cost raw material salaries of the laborers and then it is IT part vehicles part marketing part and the overall overhead cost. So, here you can see the base cost based on the you know your inter budgeting and the cost analysis you may calculate this right, but in India what happened you know this is your total expenditure say you are estimating it before you start the project or go for a bidding or construct the building or whatever the case you are estimating your budget sure you are predicting now. So, now this based on your past experience analogy or historical method or top down bottom up whatever the method you can follow or the you know different Delphi method whatever the method we have discussed. Suppose you have come up with this particular estimation say now what we are going to discuss we are assuming that in generally what happened in India you know once you create a budget and you get the budget sanction, but once you go for implication process or the implementation process you see the cost increases because of the delay because of the labor issue because of strike raw material cost or you know whether it will have a delay in your expenditure generally cost time everywhere in India we have observed that it get delayed. So, that delay part we have captured through the cost estimation here. So, we are assuming that for the sake of illustration that data are following to some extent part distribution in project management it follow part distribution therefore, each data we are keeping as a triangular distribution. So, low downside risk that means downside not optimistic case suppose 2000 is the for the land cost initial calculation is 2000. Now, we are assuming that you can save 10 percent of it suppose in case you can consider no downside like one sided triangular distribution also suppose here we are assuming that that you can save your budget in land or everything. So, 10 percent discount we have kept here most likely as it is and the upper case we are assuming that on an average this is sample elastation only you can change the variation we are assuming that the 20 percent extra cost will be there for land for building raw material etcetera. For every case we have kept 25 percent extra, but you can make a changes of that also. So, if it is a 25 percent extra definitely look at here your land cost will not be 2000 now it will be 2000 almost 500 now because it is been increased by 25 percent. Similarly, downside optimistic case is 1800 because 10 percent less and most likely as it is. So, this is the variation of your data now if you use part distribution you can follow another distribution also for in general you know in project management industry people use part distribution and part distribution formula is nothing, but you know a plus 4b plus you know plus c by 6. So, here we are assuming that each of this you know input data sets are following part distribution and then we have assumed the total output or total expenditure as here look at here this is the sum of them only, but it is a risk output now because all the data we have considered as a you know part distribution how to define the part distribution like you know using the formula a plus 4b plus you know c by 6 that formula you can follow using that you do not have to calculate it here you can actually find this particular formula here the lower point will be this, the middle point will be this one and the here you can see pessimistic part in this particular example, but if it is a profit case it would be optimistic here in a pessimistic point would be this one right. So, if you click it you have created the distribution of that particular data sets of your land which is following part distribution. So, this you can drag now for every one you will be able to create a part distribution and if you take the sum you are actually calculating your entire expenditure right now, but this is a risk output. So, you have to click your add output cell to define your total expenditure whatever here we have mentioned totals. So, you can keep it as it is now these calculations it was available with the data sets and this particular are as it is now suppose here they have put a title inside the output cell as a total project cost. So, we will run this one both you can run parallel. So, now you are going to run say 500 simulation. So, that means, suppose we let us increase the simulation size say up to 1000 iterations we will do it. Now, what happens once we will get the output you will get to know in every iteration of 1000 cases instances you are generating one input of land, one input of building cost, one input of raw material, salary, IT, vehicles, marketing and other overhead cost you are generating one output of total project cost. This is for one instances of different how many variables 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 input data are there for all 8 could you are considering they are following some uncertainty or randomness involved over there in practice you do not know maybe weather maybe labor issue raw material cost delay in the political aspects which anything can come and you might say impact in your total expenditure of your project cost.  So, this monitoring process also you can do in between your project progress process like you know you can do the SWAT analysis also and you can also get to know more detail about your you know monitoring part of your budget estimation and the cost. Here we are not going to detail of the project management part, but I am trying to show you that how you can get a prediction well in advance in your hand in your excel or in your pen drive and you can analyze the practical cases through this case illustration of risk analytics. So, now, let us run this case you will get the more interesting insights. So, we are going to run it now. So, you have run see look at there are so many input data we had. So, we are going to we have run that particular output cell total project cost here you can see total project cost and we have found the mean standard emissions q-ness all these things we have found you can create a correlation suppose if you think that if you think that suppose your building cost and say raw material cost are correlated you can create a correlation also no doubt about it I have shown you in the previous example you can create a correlation between building cost and raw material cost. In that case probably your variation will be reduced of your total project cost because you know the randomness will be gone and the correlation between the building and raw material will come that we are not going to discuss now we are just seeing the basic case. So, suppose here we found the total analysis here interestingly here you can see among the output data set which are all following some part distribution and random in nature I will have to see the turnover graph who is making maximum variation to my total project cost look at here building cost building cost is making maximum variation to my total project cost look at here if you keep other variable static look at here total vehicles cost are not that much you know impactful to your total project cost it is has it has a nominal you know impacting your total project cost the variation is very less but building cost is having maximum variation or raw material cost. So, if you can you know reduce this overhead cost the additional contingency cost is too high actually here also you can see for this particular sample data sets that means if you suppose take the building cost. So, if you can trigger the building cost if you can reduce the variation in your building cost or expenditure in your building cost or raw material cost probably you can reduce your entire project cost as much as possible. So, it has a maximum variation you can also see the spider graph here you will see the building cost look at which on the rate one is building cost look at the percentile changes here you can see rate one which how it is making impact your total profit look at here. So, variation is there if your building cost variation increases we can see your total project cost is also increasing with a very high range of lower site and the upper site. So, this type of analysis you will be able to see also interestingly now I am going to show you another interesting part let us close it here. Now, I am going to show you one interesting analysis suppose you here you have almost 7 8 variables right input variables which are random miniature risk is involved in this particular analysis of total project cost. But here also we have through tornado graph and the spider graph we have also observed that building cost is having maximum variation to your you know total output say or total project cost we will have to see the scatter plot between the building cost and say profit. So, what we are going to do we will browse the result and here we will see the scatter plot of your data with say total project cost with your say building cost right just select it and see the scatter plot here you can see the analysis says that look at here if you increase your building cost because of uncertainty here you can see a total project cost is also increasing and entire you know 1000 simulations output are kept here analysis you can copy it and you can paste in your excel ppt and you can analyze this also and you can also see the you know overall bifurfication about your data of your total project with the range with the downside you know quadrant and the upper side quadrant and all this analysis also many more aspects also you can see from this particular analysis of output analysis cell. Couple of I am trying to show you sensitive analysis what if analysis many other thing also you can do using this risk analytics software and further prediction and the recourse action plan also you can analyze actually.


The following is a presentation of TFNN The Trader's Edge with Steve Rhodes Toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER> The Trader's Edge now Steve Rhodes Good morning folks welcome to the October 5th the terrific Thursday edition of today's Trader's Edge show I'm your host DB Perseverance Rhodes who absolutely knows that each of us should always be Pioneers of our future versus prisoners of our past. Hope everyone out there is having a great day Hey, let's make sure we have an extraordinary one now the easiest way to do that is to always remember that life is happening for us not to us That's right when you and I make that one little two-by-four shift It means we can find the gift in every set of circumstance that life is gonna toss at us now today You and I we're gonna go check out the circumstance of these markets We'll go figure out what those bowls and bears what those buyers and sellers are communicating to you and I at just past 11 o'clock in the morning. I want you know, I'm absolutely grateful for your presence here But even more important than that and that's this during this next 53 minutes. I am here to serve you So feel free to pick up that phone dial on in it eight seven seven nine two seven six six four eight Now if you can't dial them, but you've got a question You can always send me an email send that off to Steve at tfn.com inside the subject hitting Please put radio show question. Of course, if you're inside our Tiger's den well than any in every ping will do So let's go ahead and get this show started on terrific Thursday. Of course. This is Tiger Financial news network. I'm Steve Rhodes. Welcome to the show We got a sea of red out there in the face of the US dollar index actually pulling back So the dollars that maybe this is a liar's poker game got the Dow down 170 S&P's off 35 Nasdaq down 182 Russell's off 10 Summizer down 41 gold is off $3 Silver's off 14 pennies lights we could is down 60 cents natural gas up 18 pennies That's the big mover out here today up 6% and the 30 Treasuries down 12 ticks printed out at 11 1104 Leading to charge dollar wise the upside SP plus Corp of 16 bucks 46% 96% for orchid therapeutics lamb Weston holdings 8% or 7 bucks Marauder therapeutics up 3 and a half more like him, you know therapeutics is up 6% a lot of Therapeutics companies moving to the upside to the downside. It's GP.  That's about a 21% move to the downside as mill holdings is off 14 bucks to an average and the line Technology 13 bucks 4% so we've got some movers and we've got some shakers But where we're gonna begin today is we're gonna begin with what the heck's going on with that good old US dollar index Let's go take a look at it. We're gonna switch panels here We're gonna take a look at really all the currency pairs that make up the US dollar index as well as US dollar index itself So we're looking at the very right-hand panel to simply expand it out. This is the daily time frame for the US dollar index What do we have well yesterday? We generated it generated a bear sash candle that bear sash candle confirmed a roadsman to Mindicator top It's usually a pretty solid top out here and right now what we have is price trading below its green oscillator and change line That tells us that at this stage of the game the US dollar has lost its momentum However that being said the US dollar index has got support at one oh six point one zero one And that's the next area of support I presume that is where price is likely headed to and if it gets below that then we may have something of significance here in The US dollar index and my say significance. I'm not talking the long-term significance. I'm talking really for the weaker So here if we take a look at now start with the other currency pairs that make it up the euro being the most important one That's fifty seven point six percent of the weighting. What did the euro do the euro has a TD nine count bottom that completed yesterday Price right now is trading above its oscillator and change line a close above it Which is one point zero five zero seven will signal move up to one oh six seven three That will most certainly weaken the US dollar index if we take a look at the end the end the confirmed a roadsman to Mindicator top Couple days ago prices trading below yesterday's low that suggests to you and I that price is gonna head lower and maybe gonna test That swing point low from a few days ago down at one forty seven twenty seven That says the US dollar Japanese yen is getting stronger and the US dollar index is getting weaker So our top two weightings are saying the US dollar index should continue to move lower If we take a look at the great british pound yesterday it confirmed a buy the d-point pattern Why that was a key reversal bar a key reversal bar needs three things specifically You must be in an extended condition. Well, all I have to do is open up this chart here for the great british pound You can see we're at an extended condition Number two You've got to exceed the low of the prior bar and the high of the prior bar Well, that took place for certain and then number three you've got to close at least one tick one pip one something one penny At least in the opposite direction of the trend. Well, it most certainly did that as well So the great british pound is suggesting to you and I that wants to go take on this little junior swing point And that's from 9 29 and that range out there is between 1.218 and 1.227 out there Those the only three currency whereas we're going to spend any time on but each of these is suggesting that the US dollar index should weaken out here So why is the market wise gold and silver trading lower? Hmm something to think about now. We'll close this set of charts out We'll go take a look at the intraday charts here for the US dollar index. We'll do that for the well That's not it. We're going to come back to those charts, but let's take a look at the US dollar index here Now we can see that on an intraday basis. Let's look at a 30 minute timeframe chart. What do we have out here? We've really got nothing other than price testing yesterday's low. So we've got a little bit of a consolidation here Inside a 30 minute timeframe chart for the US dollar index So what I don't have is any kind of a bottom signal on any type of intraday chart out here But we do have price below profiles like on a five hour chart. That says 105 68 is game This says 105 72. That's the four hour chart two hour chart says 105 87 is game out here So it sure looks like the stevy that the US dollar index wants to move lower That's what all the signals are again 106.101 is going to be a key area to be looking at from a test standpoint out there All right, so we've got that established. Let's go ahead and close that out Let's go take a look at the euro which represents again about 57 58 percent of the US dollar index Let's see what's going on inside its intraday charts out here. See if there's any other signal So now we take a look at a 30 minute chart here for the euro We want to see this doing Is a move higher which it most certainly is on a 30 minute basis We don't have any kind of a top But we can't see that price is trading above a profile level This suggests that the euro wants to continue to move higher on its 30 minute timeframe No top on the 60 no top on the 120 that I see no top on the 240 And no top on the five hour timeframe chart out here So what we see when we take a look at the euro and on a weekly basis This is going to become bar number nine of a td9 count That says we likely have a weekly td9 count bottom that suggests they move up to 1.078 That's at least what it suggests out there. So nothing inside the euro suggests that the US dollar index should strengthen Instead that it should weaken. Okay, so we've got that now I do have a question that came in from kota wants to take a look at the 10-year treasury So i'm going to use we're going to go to that right now because i've of the data feed Let me see. So here we take a look at the 10-year treasury We don't see any kind of a top We see a negated td9 count top that td9 count top that formed on september 27 Pull back tested to reject that green oscillator and change line. This momentum was still to the upside We don't see any kind of a top as long as price remains about 468 out there again We're taking a look at the 10-year yield out here. It says that it wants to continue to move higher No topping pattern on the weekly type frame bill topping pattern on the monthly time frame We're trading above last week's high. We're trading above last month's high out there All this suggests a further move higher right now kota i'd watch 468 That's a key level a price. We're to close below that that could then signal pull back the 422 But right now the 10-year yield is suggesting to you and i that it wants to continue to move higher We'll be right back folks currencies commodities and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the Volatility in equity markets across the globe, which is why it's a great time to try out teddy keg stats tiger 4x report Teddy keg stat breaks down the 4x markets every monday using his 30 plus years of experience as a trading veteran of futures 4x stocks and options teddy releases his weekly tiger 4x report every monday morning with coverage of all the major currency pairs Including the dollar index the euro dollar pound dollar dollar swiss Dollar yen as well as many more and he also has weekly coverage of the crude oil market and the 30 year t bonds as they both Influence 4x markets tremendously when you sign up for the tiger 4x report You also gain instant access to teddy 60 minute webinar archive He just hosted 4x strategies and fundamentals What is behind the tiger 4x report for all the details to start your 30 day tiger 4x report subscription today Visit the front page of tfnn.com tfnn educating investors You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market You're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts You might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market Overviews that give you direction on the key indices selective stocks and commodities Subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com The opening call newsletter is written by basal chapman creator of the trading methodology known as the chapman wave The chapman wave up down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns finding the peaks and valleys and stock prices Get the opening call newsletter by basal chapman in your inbox every day First time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up tfnn.com educating investors Steve Rhodes started his trading career as a student almost 20 years ago and the student has now become the master Steve won the prestigious timer of the year award in 2018 and barely missed that mark again in 2019 Finishing at number two for the year an amazing accomplishment Steve Rhodes is committed to sharing his techniques and knowledge with anyone who wants to learn And he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge every day in his mastering probability newsletter Steve's award-winning newsletter mastering probability is delivered every trading day with updates throughout the afternoon Sign up for steve's market newsletter Mastering probability and you'll receive access to seven of steve's educational webinars Absolutely free at tfnn. All our newsletters come with a 30 day money back guarantee So you have absolutely nothing to worry about visit tfnn.com and try mastering probability 30 days risk-free today tfnn educating investors Toll free at 1<PHONE_NUMBER> internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER> So let's get to some requests that have come in the first one coming in from satish satish watch take a look at crwd And he's looking for an entry point And right now what we can see is that you've got a td9 count top that formed a couple of weeks ago And we just have a good old fashion consolidation with inside its profile So you're looking for an entry point. We can see that the bottom of that profile has been tested three different times in its held So to the extent that you're looking for a an entry point That would be one of them if price were to close below 159 30 for two consecutive sessions satish. We'd be looking to move back to 145 38 On a monthly a weekly timeframe I should say we can see how its td9 count breakdown resistance level is acted as strong resistance. That's at 168 48 Can't bust them up try to bust them down. What does that mean? We're right now that means trying to get back to its oscillator and change line at 158 76 So we know we've got support between 158 76 and 159 30. We don't know if that support will hold enough But we know we've got support there What else can I share with you? Quite frankly, there's not much else that I see with inside any of the charts I'm looking at for crowd strike out here to assist us. So right now and you do have this nice wide ranging bar Let's see what kind of volume was in there. This is from august 31st 13 million shares First time down was with six million shares next time down was with two million shares The next time down was with two million shares again So that seems to be a pretty decent area But I don't know that you're going to get out of this like consolidation sideways move But satish that is the answer as we speak right now at 11 19 on october the 5th You're a second question was a take look at ticker symbol amt and here you're also that's american tower Right, you're also looking for an entry point here. So let's get over to that set of charts And here on a daily time frame This tells us what this tells us that This negated a teeny nine count bottom pattern yesterday Yesterday so the day before was bar following bar number nine made the low then yesterday it closed just below that today We're trading below that so that's not the pad that's in play here The pad that's in play is the roadsman to indicator signal that's been triggered. Don't know how long it will stay there What you're looking for for an entry point into american tower is a bullish reversal candle Now even if you get that that does not say you're out of the woods because you're trading below profile You're trading below the it's red oscillator and change that but that would be your buy signal So here satish at least for the next few days if this continues to move lower in a big way You could get rid of that uh roadsman to indicator signal We can see it triggered right back here in the trading day Of september 21st and the very next day it was gone out there So it's not automatic that a lower move in price is going to retain that pattern But it is we do have right now in a bullish reversal signal would suggest a further move higher We got that same type of pattern on the weekly time frame and we have a wave number seven signal And on the monthly you've got a teeny nine count bottom that is likely to form at the end of the month It's still too early to make that call But odds favor like 90 percent when I say odds favor 90 percent of the time When you get a successful bar number eight that would qualify qualify for a teeny nine count Whether it's a top or bottom 90 percent of time it goes on to complete that pattern So monthly you're looking good Weekly's got some potential and daily is what you're waiting for on crowd strike And that would be that bullish reversal candle. So satish. I hope that that helped you out with regard to those two instruments Thanks so much for taking the time to write in Hector and patty want to take a look at franco navada fnv And in the case of franco navada it completed a td nine count bottom pattern yesterday Uh was the bar following bar number nine that pattern remains in effect unless price were to close below 127 45 So you've got a buy signal there inside of franco navada If we take a look at the weekly time frame, this is the one that gets maybe a little bit scary So the b point out here is from that we would use for an a to b equal cd Uh that I would use out here is from august 18 three million shares Last week as this passed through there was 2.3. So it was lighter shares this week We're only about a little over halfway. You're nearly two million shares out here. So It's it's not the most ideal setup with regard to franco navada. It's just suggesting caution out here But you do have a daily buy signal absolutely Which should price do price should make its way up to the 132 27 level That is the center of its bullish structure daily profile If that if this is only a counter trend if it were only to be a counter trend rally Hasn't really started yet. If it were to be a counter trend rally, that's where you would expect price to find resistance If it's more than a counter trend rally, that's where you would expect price to clear What else can I share with you your second question? Which I was trying to pull up some charts, but I just don't have the time to it The question was can golden a dollar move higher and the answer to that question is absolutely positively I will try to get that chart together I was just looking for it. I couldn't find it. I don't want to have to redo it out here I'll look for that chart and if I can find it. Maybe I'll just have to redo it We could take a look at that tomorrow now tomorrow. I'm going to record the show from eight to nine So if you are listening live right now or listening on the recorded version of this Please join me from eight to nine or get some questions in to me early I'll be happy to take care of those things out there So so we're set up for tomorrow. So that's with regard to franco navada hector and again I'll get back to you on the dollar and the uh and gold moving higher at the same time out there Alrighty right now. We don't have the gold. We don't have gold moving higher or the dollar Well, actually you've got the dollar moving lower out there, but I understand where the question is coming from Let's go to the next question Which is coming from a Vic who wrote in earlier wants to take a look at uranium And this question was just simply what are our thoughts? So in the case of uranium got a nice hammer candle that formed yesterday And it formed just above its TD 9 count breakout level now It's not a bottom signal. I would prefer that it really gets closer to 2409 or test 2409 and rejects that level So I don't have a great clue on what uranium is suggesting to us right now Yes, it definitely tried to form a bottom a hammer candle tells you that bulls were trying to hammer out a bottom I mean, that's where it really comes from but a close below 24 45 is going to suggest at least around the 2409 But you could actually get an a to b equal cd to the downside The reason why that daily chart is a little bit suspect is because the weekly chart has a clear and present danger And that's called the TD 9 count top. However, here's the positive And this is with regard to yesterday's action and today's follow-through action What price did do when you get a TD 9 count pattern or get any kind of a topping pattern All that price really is given the opportunity to do is get back to see if it can bust through support That was the entire reason that the oscillator and changeline was developed It's green tells us we have a rising price oscillator That is a bullish condition price test and rejects that level tells us we have a rising this rising price oscillator above zero out there Very bullish conditions. So its overall signal on the weekly chart is neutral But we're still cognizant of that top on a monthly time frame You're just consolidating with inside its profiles that range out here because between 2010 and 30 16 out there So what's the charts telling us? Honestly, it's telling us that support held On the weekly time frame support hasn't really been tested on the daily time frame But that hammer candle so that's about as clear as I can be I can add one more piece of information to us for us to consider And that is that yesterday was the fourth consecutive lower close out here. Let's see how often we get to four closes You got to five back here since since this thing uh bottom. So we had one seven one seven consecutive move one five another four One more four and then yesterday's four So it gets to the point here Vic where it was yesterday's move And then today's move nothing more than just simply its natural dance steps out there It is mostly something that is certainly something to consider Seabro's with tfnn. We'll be right back. We get back ready to take a look at natural gas for kota tesla for kota We did the 10 year yield. He'd like to take a look at the 30 year Bond as well and for dam we're going to take a look at car bond. We'll be right back bold report As a precious metal gold is still king It continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the london otc market The us futures market and the shanghai gold exchange the gold report tom o'brien publishes his weekly gold report every monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the xa u hui gdx the dollar bonds the south african rand As well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy sell recommendations The gold report New subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk subscribe to tom o'brien's gold report newsletter now at tfnn.com Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument You have to practice sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts at tfnn You'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis And it's not just dry tedious text either tfnn airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com and tfnn's youtube channel with tiger tv Live every market day from 8 30 a.m. To 4 p.m. Eastern for free Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds tiger tv has eight different shows with expert hosts To help you make the right moves with your money Watch online at tfnn.com or on tfnn's youtube channel and become the investor you were born to be tfnn educating investors tfnn has just launched their new trading room the tiger zen hosted at discord tfnn has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours And now they are expanding their reach with the tiger's den available to all tigers and tigeresses for just one dollar for the year There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders in the tiger's den You can look over the shoulders of tom o bryan and the other tfnn hosts while they analyze charts during their live tiger tv programs And join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas interact with other tigers and tigeresses As they share trading ideas news analysis and discuss the market action all trading day Even at night and on the weekends the tiger's den at discord is accessible on mobile or tablets as well So it's always at your reach to sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders Just visit the front page of tfnn.com Don't forget you can listen to tfnn live on your mobile device 24 hours per day Go to tfnn.com and hit watch tiger tv. That's tfnn.com and hit watch tiger tv Welcome back folks. Still we've got all the u.s. Industries trading to the downside dows down 145 recipes up 29 nasdaq 155 and the russells down 10. Let's go out to Bethesda, maryland and speak with sue. Sue. Good morning. How are you today? Good morning. Thank you so much taking my call My pleasure. I have a question about xom.  Yes Yeah, it's supposed to be yeah, you have problem. I you know, they they did and it's fair but you are 108 91 But right they went there and then they come back up again. Should they going lower? So right now, let's let's let's start off. Let's start off with regard I think we talked about this when we talked a couple of days ago We talked about the correlation between xon mobile the energy sector and light sweet crude now We didn't have a time. We didn't run. We didn't actually run that. I'm going to show you the chart right now This is going to be the correlation chart just so you can see what's going on The top panel here is light sweet crude now We know about light sweet crude is it's it's trading below the bottom of its daily profile out here And that was at 88 87. So once it lost support Uh, you know, we saw xon mobile act the same way and continued to move lower out here The bottom panel is showing you the directional correlation over a five day average when these bars are above zero It tells us that it has a a directional correlation not an inverse correlation That's would be the bottom bars out there So we can say that lights sweet crude and xon mobile trade in the same direction probably 95 97 percent of the time somewhere around there. So what in order to find a bottom We're going to need to not just find a bottom in xon mobile, but we also need to find it in light sweet crude Does does that there's a chart that i'm showing you does that make sense? Do you understand what i'm sharing with you? Yeah Okay, okay, perfect. All right Okay, so so we got that want to make sure we've got that out of the way The reason I want to do that is you're calling about xon mobile But because of this directional correlation We also want to go take a look at light sweet crude. So we're going to do that I'm going to switch over we'll come back to xon mobile, but let's go to see what lights sweet crude is doing We know that it closed below the bottom of its daily profile But the question is where is it likely headed to where's the next level of support basically So now we pull up these charts out here. We take a look at the daily time frame. I'll just simply expand it out The daily time frame says to us that lights recruit wants to target 78 94 That is the last place where it broke out from we're trading 82 65 out here So if that is the case and that is going to move lower so too should xon mobile It doesn't tell us how far lower xon mobile should move But it does say that at this stage here we've broken through support on that daily basis The next level on a daily time frame is 78 94 and we would say that Xon mobile would likely not bottom until we get down there Now what's going on in the interdate? Well first on a long term basis longer term meaning the weekly There's actually an a to b equal cd to the upside inside of lights sweet crude So perhaps when price pulls back to 78 94 that a to b equal cd pattern will resume out there don't know for sure Of concern, but it's it's a it's a it's a light concern this at this stage And the reason it's light is because it's only october 5th But when I look at the monthly time frame chart if we did get a bearish reversal candle This would confirm a rogment to mitigate or top and those are pretty significant Especially when they show up on the longer term charts out there So now let's pull this try to pull this together One we believe that lights recruit is headed back to its td9 count breakout level of 78 94 Let's go see where the breakout level is on xon mobile so that you can prepare for that Or potentially prepare for that and that level here on xon mobile on a daily time frame We're not that far from it. It's 108 42 So that is the next level of support xon mobile today got down to a low Of 108 87 now what I can't what I don't know what each of us don't know Is whether if price gets to 108 42 whether it's going to hold or not If it doesn't hold then we're likely headed lower the headed lower to where I would look at the weekly time frame chart That has a td9 count and right now It's going to it looks like it'll form a rogment to mitigate or top that should take xon mobile back to 104 57 So we know lights recruit is is likely to head lower We know where it broke out from xon mobile should target 108 42 So if that level fails we should see xon mobile get back to the 104 57 area and if 104 57 fails Then we're down into the 84 58 ish range out there this is um Does that is Is there anything that's confusing That get damaged then say that again Should I just take it take take loss then Well, I don't uh now it's 108 Yeah, you know, um It's 109 60 right now. Um, I have one on nine You know, I I supposed supposed to be 108 91 that would be spoke to this Well 108 42 is what I've got is the key support level um You know the the issue is so it's a great question and you've been in it for a while So you've got to make the decision that is most sure. Yeah, not that long not that long So you've got to make a decision because that's a very high price Right. Yeah, you got it up at the highs You know how I would be looking at this and I don't know how much heat you take an xon mobile 78 94 Should be an area where lights we accrued find support, but coulda woulda shoulda Um until lights we accrued really breaks a key level of support I'd be more inclined to sit on it, but you've got to really it's your money You know and you've got to protect you've got to protect those assets out there So I can't I don't know that I can share much more with you than what I have shared at this stage of the game I would also suggest that now. I can't I can't say that just yet Well, here's what I would share with you if you see a close and lights we accrued today low 82 35 That's going to be a signal that it's definitely headed lower and headed towards that 78 94 level So sue. I hope that that information really helps you out. I feel for you But it looks like you're still cool. It is there when 35 It supports that level whole correct In in lights we accrued is 78 94 for X on mobile the level that you're looking for Yeah What you're looking at is 108 42 is its next key level of sport if that fails 104 57 would be where it would be targeted Okay, oh my goodness. Okay. I appreciate that so much. Thanks. Thanks for your help You bet and thanks much for calling that was sue in Bethesda, Maryland Let's go take a look at natural gas. That's a is a request came in from a coda So we'll get over to those charts here momentarily So as I get my cursor to work And lights we accrued looks like it's a breaking out to us recruit natural gas So I say lights recruit must have lights recruit on my mind. We're taking a natural gas now what it's doing right now Let's open up the daily time frame chart The daily time frame chart does have a wave seven bottom signal that formed out here Well, that was confirmed on september the 27th That's a very small portion of the Chapman wave, but it's an important portion of it And right now what we've got is a wave seven bottom with price taking out profile resistance It has tried to take out profile resistance two other times if it closed above 3.07 to today and tomorrow That's going to signal that natural gas should make its way up to 34 3.432 that is its td nine count breakdown level We are looking at the natural gas November contract if you are trading the ung go find out what contracts are in there Odds favor. It's not just November. So you need to know what's going on in the contracts inside of ung That's different than just looking at ung like kota and i just did out here So we know where price is likely targeting and uh another key level of resistance Is going to be above 342 and be at about the 3.68 level kota help that hope that helps out with regard to natural gas We'll take a look at tesla we get back You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market You're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts You might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices Selective stocks and commodities Subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com The opening call newsletter is written by basal chapman creator of the trading methodology known as the chapman wave The chapman wave up down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices Get the opening call newsletter by basal chapman in your inbox every day first time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up tfnn.com educating investors Everything in the universe is governed by the fibonacci sequence This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market To stay on top of stock patterns You can take advantage of sign up for the fibonacci 24 7 newsletter at tfnn.com When you subscribe You'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader larry pesavento on stocks You need to pay attention to and you can trust larry's analysis After all he's got 45 years experience as a day trader larry will also provide daily charts Videos and data on the key markets that he's tracking expect notifications from larry on market movement You need to act on at any time first time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up Subscribe to the fibonacci 24 7 newsletter today tfnn.com educating investors Are china a shares hot or not? If you trade china a shares now may be time to take a closer look trade chau or chad Directions daily csi 300 china a share bull and bear etfs china a shares in either direction Visit direction investments.com today an investor should consider the investment objectives risks charges and expenses of the direction shares Carefully before investing the prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus Please contact direction shares at<PHONE_NUMBER> The prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk Including the possible loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor four-side fund services LLC This program is brought to you by vista gold traded on the nyse american and tsx under the symbol vgz Got folks now it's down 140 s and b's off 27 We'll take a look at tesla is for code inside the tigers den so tesla when we take a look at this chart here Code i'm going to start on the very right hand side monthly chart Monthly chart shows that price has made its way up to a support Our resistance level and that is its monthly oscillator and change line So that may be why price has kind of stuck right here that number by the way that print is at 257 86 We take a look at the weekly time frame chart what we have is a consolidation with inside its profile levels That's between 232 35 and 272 32 It does have a td9 count top that formed out here the week of july 21st Price pulled back Tested actually broke through support. It's bullish structured weekly profile But that was for one week the following week it got back inside there So this day and then a new profile formed a couple of weeks ago So right now on a weekly basis really on a daily basis And i'll say on a monthly basis you got a good old fashion consolidation between 232 35 and 272 32 with right now price testing monthly resistance the resistance area on the daily time frame Where is it your above profile levels? Um, this td9 count breakdown area was taken out once so I can't really call that resistance I just have to get up to its swing point from back on september 15th and that range is from 271 to 277 55 So I just think you've got a good old fashion consolidation right now Watch those weekly profiles that weekly oscillator and change line for additional clues out there So hope that that helps you out I believe you or somebody wanted to take a look at the 30 year treasury So let's go take a look at the 30 year their request was to take a look at the monthly time frame Which will do But we will also take a look at the other time frames out there because those are the charts i'm going to pull up So if you give me just a moment here, we'll see the 30 year treasury on a monthly basis though Let's get up and answer that question on a monthly basis. We could see that we are trading below last month's low All right, so we know that that is a bearish signal. We also see out here. I just have to would have to Restart this so that those trend lines Must have gone something more like That's not the trend line That's for sure So we're just going to skip the trend lines right now. I have to come back and draw those in that doesn't matter So what do we have pattern wise on a monthly basis? Well, first there's a breakout area So the next breakout area in a monthly basis down at 109 06 Do we get down there pretty close, but we haven't gotten there So that should be an area of support. It's not a guarantee You can see we've crushed through other TD 9 count breakout levels, but that would be a next area of support What's needed on a monthly basis to confirm a bottom is going to be a bullish reversal candle because you have a rose momentum indicator signal Um, that is a present at the moment So I know you were looking for the monthly information the daily of the weekly chart also shows a wave number seven bottom The last bottom that formed out here inside the 30 year was a wave seven bottom So we'll want to keep our eye on that now in order for that To a form you have to have a higher low so that earliest that would confirm would be next week out there On a daily time frame, you don't have any kind of a bottom signal out here It suggests that price wants to continue to move lower because you are below profile and below red oslater and changeline So I hope that helps out with regard to the 30 year now folks We got a treat for you. We've got the man. Mr. Larry Pesavento on the line as well. Just wants to say hello Larry Thanks for calling in. How are you feeling these days? Hey, I'm feeling better. This is the four days. I've had the big c here since uh, monday Okay, doctor said it probably take about seven days, but I'm feeling okay I know I don't have any Nothing serious just a you know clogged up head and uh, I've never been able to think very good anyway So the doctor could use that as a gauge Well, you saw you sound good. You sound good You sound good. You know, you don't sound like you have congestion or anything If we go below 42 35 and that s and p futures Yeah, be very careful because we could drop 100 points in the matter of uh, very short time because That's real. We're the bond market's the problem. Steve.  We're screwed People want their money and they're not getting it. So that's what's going to happen They're going to have a big move down in those bonds probably a 103 105 somewhere in that ballpark before bottoms Yeah, there's there's no doubt. There's there's no doubt when you take a look at Uh, some of the data that the treasury does provide, you know, china is just they're in the mode of just dumping bonds They're just dumping them. So yeah, so, you know, the crude oil, you know, they were telling us about $100 barrels Just like they did at $200 a barrel. Well, that's top And it has absolutely down to about 60 something. Anyway, listen, I just want to call in to everybody and not to worry about me I'll be back Monday. Got it. Perfect. Perfect. Well, we think you sound great. So you're well, you're welcome to do the show today Even with a clogged head All right, our best Yeah, thanks for calling in larry pessemento Um, let's get on to our our next request out here. So I think we've covered everything inside the 30 year treasury out here You can see on the short term basis when I say short term I'm looking at 240 minute and a two hour chart here as they have roads meant to indicator signals They're suggesting that the 30 year ought to get up towards the 112 24 113 24 level out there. So I don't do hope that helps you out with regard to the review of the 30 year Let's go to our next request out here. This is coming in from dan inside the tiger's den. Mr. A b cd himself He wants to take a look at car vana c v na is the ticker symbol. So we'll get up there momentarily I believe that is on this chart. Yeah, that is. So we'll take a look at car vana What do we see we see that right now price is trading below a key level of support That is a td nine count bottom that formed back on august 17th that low out there is at 36 42 If car vana closed bow 36 42 into suggesting to you and I that it wants lower price because it will have taken out a prior area of resistance And I don't have any kind of a bottoming signal. In fact, what we probably have I don't know if the retracement is enough Um, let me try to take a look at that on my other system. So Real quickly here Is this forming an a to b equal cd to the downside? So to answer that question. I just want to understand what the potential retracement is Well, I can't get this operate. There we go. So here Oh my goodness, it's hard Okay, no, no, I can do that. Sorry. Sorry for this little delay here folks But that's what happens sometimes. So the price I look at this. Yeah, this would be the a to b equal cd So the retracement here Was only 24 percent. So I said the retracement would have been really between where it's labeled c and the following bar Dan so I'm going to say we don't have an a to b equal cd to the downside pattern You're in bar number four you're trading below a prior area of support and a swing point So if we close below that level What this is suggesting to you and I is car vana wants to make its way back to 24 68 On a weekly time frame prices trading below its bullish structured weekly profile So we know a close blow 38 46 would not be a good thing and that could suggest getting all the way back to $8 and 80 $886 cents out there. That's what we see. We take a look at the weekly chart monthly chart Not a lot here to assist us with other than the fact that looks pretty good Although we're trading below last month's low. So we would have to discount that comment looks pretty good So it looks to me like what car vana signaling to and I dan is he wants to head lower And at this stage here until some other pattern forms 24 68 We'll be the target. So I hope that that helps you out Johnny d took a long position inside the gdx wants to take a look at it what it's doing And that sounds good unless price closed below yesterday's low Why because yesterday's low is a td nine count bottom was the bar following bar number nine So a close below 25 62 is going to suggest a run lower run lower to where well 22 58 would not be out of the question That happens to be the monthly td nine count breakout level Now there's a to b equal cd to the downside patterns that are already confirmed out here Inside of the gdx on a weekly basis. So you really need that daily td nine count pattern to hold out there if it doesn't There's your a to b equal cd So it's made the one to one move out here and it needs a bullish reversal candle short of that 22 58 becomes a target only if Yesterday's low gets taken out on the positive side It looks like the u.s. Dollar index is going to pull back and the gdx should go target 26 78 to the upside We'll be right back Currencies commodities and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity markets across the globe Which is why it's a great time to try out teddy keg stats tiger forex report Teddy keg stat breaks down the forex markets every monday using his 30 plus years of experience as a trading veteran of futures forex stocks and options Teddy releases his weekly tiger forex report every monday morning with coverage of all the major currency pairs Including the dollar index the euro dollar pound dollar dollar swiss Dollar yen as well as many more and he also has weekly coverage of the crude oil market and the 30 year t bonds As they both influence forex markets tremendously when you sign up for the tiger forex report You also gain instant access to teddy 60 minute webinar archive He just hosted forex strategies and fundamentals What is behind the tiger forex report for all the details and to start your 30 day tiger forex report subscription today Visit the front page of tfnn.com tfnn educating investors You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market You're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future right like any endeavor in life Before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts You might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices Selective stocks and commodities subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com The opening call newsletter is written by basal chapman creator of the trading methodology known as the chapman wave The chapman wave up down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns Finding the peaks and valleys and stock prices get the opening call newsletter by basal chapman and your inbox every day First time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up tfnn.com educating investors Everything in the universe is governed by the fibonacci sequence This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork To patterns in the stock market to stay on top of stock patterns You can take advantage of sign up for the fibonacci 24 7 newsletter at tfnn.com When you subscribe you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader larry pesavento on stocks You need to pay attention to and you can trust larry's analysis after all he's got 45 years experience as a day trader larry will also provide daily charts videos and data on the key markets that he's tracking Expect notifications from larry on market movement. You need to act on at any time First time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up Subscribe to the fibonacci 24 7 newsletter today tfnn.com educating investors tfnn has launched the tiger's den Hosted at discord tfnn has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming Hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours the tiger's den available to all tigers and tigeresses For just one dollar for the year There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders just visit the front page of tfnn.com Welcome back a couple more requests that we've got in the first one from agape wants to take a look at the smh Is a specific question? We're a support and resistance easy enough for us to figure out support is at 143 72 That is the daily oscillator and changeline that level was tested so far It's been rejected if price closed below that the next area of support will be 141 81 Resistance because price is trading above the top of its daily profile We then look to the weekly profile and we look at that We can see price is trading below the bottom of its bullish structured weekly profile Resistance then is at 147 55 if price can move above that. We're looking at about 150 153 61 so that's your support and your resistance for the summaries out there Agape I hope that that provided you with the information that you were looking for the last request coming in from the tiger's den I didn't write down who this came from might have been inno who wanted to take a look at the Cues we're going to take a look at the end cue So let's get over to that set of charts out here and the 30 minute time frame For the nasdaq is actually bullish right now. So we take a look at the task market breath We have 50 trading 50 instruments trading above resistance nine trading below support So 30 minute has bullish market breath now We don't have a bottom signal But it was really an honor of larry pest event who called in the show If we take a look at the retracement on a 30 minute chart from its low at about 3 30 morning This was yesterday up to the high that came in At 8 30 this morning. Well, guess what we've got we have a 0.618 retracement out there and so price is bouncing off of that what the Nq is likely to do out here just at least interday is a bounce up towards that 14 8 45 level No idea if it can take that out if it can then we likely continue to head higher now The other four type rings 60 240 daily and weekly they all have bearish task market breath out there So this could be just simply a short-term trade, you know folks stay tuned for all the great programming Don't forget tomorrow. I'm going to be live from 8 to 9. So please join me early for tea and crumpets And anything else that you'd like for breakfast. Have a terrific thursday. We'll see you tomorrow morning. Take care Be safe out there


Hi everyone. Welcome to our presentation on how to optimize your Moodle Cloud site for success. I'm Barbara. I'm a customer support consultant for Moodle Cloud. I've been with Moodle for just over a year as part of the Moodle Cloud and Moodle support teams. But most of my Moodle experience actually comes before that as an educator for about 10 years using Moodle. My name is Matt. I've been with Moodle since 2015 when I joined the Moodle Cloud team. And as I'm now a technical architect for the Moodle Cloud. I was with Moodle Cloud during COVID, which was a very interesting time. And I was very interested in the previous presentation because it explained the kind of thing that Moodle Cloud aims to do at a much smaller scale. We aim to do about 1% of the example that was given about the Nigeria University for about 1% of the cost as well. So in this presentation we're going to give you an overview of what Moodle Cloud is. Who our users are, common challenges they face, and then a few tips to make everything work a little bit better for you. I'll save everyone some time because the previous presentation you will now know exactly where the software as a service system is. That was well explained before. The difference with Moodle Cloud is that we aim to reduce everything that is customized or made especially for one client. We have thousands during COVID close to 100,000 sites, but the larger plan is limited to 1,000 users. So it gives an idea of the scale of it. Tiffany will have a great presentation about Moodle Cloud a bit later that will explain a bit more what it does. The main difference, and that's where it's more interesting, is what Moodle Cloud is not. Moodle Cloud is not a customized setup. So yeah, there's a few limits very much by design to Moodle Cloud. It's not a customized installation. Some features that require extra infrastructure like global search, for example. Order features seen as better supported by partners are disabled and not available. Think of LDAP or CAS authentication or anything I think to do with external databases. While we offer some great extra features like document converters, some other features are limited. Mainly we don't allow additional plugins and themes. This definitely makes upgrades easier, as was explained before, and improve the security of the platform. Speaking of upgrades, they're run and bulk. The upgrade window, yep, we don't provide a customized upgrade window for each site. And so at this time the customers can't request their upgrades to be at a specific time. And obviously this is not a self-managed server, so customers don't have SSH or even FTP access. So, who are our Moodle Cloud users? We have predominantly individual educators, so single people or micro-organizations of about two to five educators. And in the scenario, the educators are actually taking on the role of the site admin, as well as the content developer and educator. We have some small-to-medium organizations that have a designated site admin to deal with that side of the site, as well as multiple educators, and then very small numbers of larger organizations that actually prefer to use multiple individual Moodle Cloud sites for each department or faculty and sometimes even in conjunction with a Moodle LMS site. To understand what our Moodle Cloud users need, we analyze their common challenges. A few of these are, the complexity of the site admin settings is often underestimated, and therefore the time it takes to learn to use them effectively, particularly managing the roles and permission settings and knowing the authentication and enrollment options that are available as well as troubleshooting issues when trying to set them up. The course backup and restore process is often overlooked until needed. The challenges here are finding and following the course backup options and settings, and then finding the backup area to download and use the files. A very common request is how to delete files. In Moodle Cloud, this is done through the user interface, and the challenge is the process of finding where the files are stored within the site from this list, and then when finding them, accessing and removing them. Of course, improved site speed and better performance is always wanted. Site speed and performance concerns are often caused by compounded issues, but some of the simple causes are slow page loads due to media files that are unnecessarily large and take a long time to load. Slow course copies due to large courses or large question banks within the course. Slow response or timeouts when large complex reports are run. Slow question bank loads due to large numbers of questions, and slow site speed due to large numbers of users accessing a quiz concurrently. So from the challenges raised by our customers and users, we have identified a few ways that you can optimize a Moodle Cloud site for better performance and improved student experience. So in the next few slides, we'll look at course content and structure, question bank structure, exam, test sessions, activity completion and conditions, and backup schedule. So for the course content and structure, balance the amount of text and media for student engagement, of course, as well as page load times. Therefore, use essential media at the smallest possible but appropriate file size. Use the course layout show one section per page to display course sections over multiple pages and therefore only load content when required. If you are creating and copying course templates, keep them simple. Use a skeleton template to build up a course rather than copy a course and try and remove the files. Then maintain course content. My deleting unused content using a good file naming practice helps with locating where your files are. With the question bank, we all know the question bank stores questions for quizzes, but understanding what it can do and how it works helps us use it more efficiently. Questions are stored in a database and can be organized into categories and subcategories. This is particularly useful when setting up quizzes to limit what is accessed when the quiz runs. Maintain questions and the question bank by identifying and removing unused questions and categories. For optimal performance, keep the question bank as simple and small as possible. And lastly, avoid unnecessary duplication. Be aware of what is included in course copies and imports so that the question bank does not contain unwanted questions and categories from other courses. This comes as a shock after the previous presentation, but for a large model cloud site where there might be a thousand users, it might cause issues if everybody attempts to connect at the same time to do a quiz at the same time. And here, the problem is not so much the quiz. It's much more the fact that there's, in this case, 954 people trying to log in at the same time and expecting to come into the quiz at the same time right there. With a maximum number of a thousand users, model cloud is capable of hosting quizzes for all users, but we've got to consider how that's being implemented. It's not so much the quiz as much as the connection that said. Model is to create the session as to store it, and that takes some effort. Having 500 students connect at once will slow the system down much better if people connect in a staggered way. And if on top of that, everyone expects to start the quiz at the same time, it will lead to some suboptimal performance and not meet expectations of students or teachers. So in this case, the recommendation is to suggest to students to connect a bit before time. The other challenge that we've seen a lot of model cloud sites facing over the last few years has to do with the combination of completion tracking and conditional access. There's some teachers that over-engineer their courses, not necessarily with a lot of benefit to the geological goals. And while the performance has improved a lot in the last few years, we've seen courses where hundreds and hundreds of course modules are all interlinked with using both activity completion tracking and conditional access leading to pretty bad page load times, especially for the first time the students loaded. So this is a feature that's probably better used with moderation when it makes sense to do so. And finally, just before escaping for the break, I'll say something that's pretty obvious, but that sadly a few people forget until it's too late. Take advantage of the automated backups. They work really well. And it's much better if they use at a reasonable frequency. They'll be part of a big model cloud site export at the end when you want to move your site elsewhere. There you go. Okay, so with all of this in mind, all our customer challenges and the tips, there are three fundamental things to consider before designing a model cloud site. Yet to know model cloud, the product, and the software model. As with any software, learning to use it starts with understanding what it is designed to do, its purpose, and what it can do, its possibilities. Then learning how to use the features becomes easier. Secondly, understand the digital world. Occasionally it's good to revisit the basic concepts. Content is data. That means everything you add to your site. But to get your students to see the content, it needs to be transmitted to them. The more content there is on a page, especially high resolution media files, the longer it will take the page to load. Each student's region, internet, and personal network infrastructure will also determine these load times. Thirdly, evaluate your student needs and what your organization needs to deliver. What type of content does your site need? What type of assessments need to be carried out? What learning experience do you want your students to have? This question should actually be, how will your students be engaging with this content? What is their reality? Only then start planning and designing your optimized Moodle Cloud site. A well-built course leads to better outcomes. Moodle Cloud is a great solution to teach online. Give it a try. Thank you.


Panzin Panzin Panzin Panzin Panzin  sympt  aisle aungiogi ek sa barbha hija maj adira.  Students from the government affected by this govind communicate with the public that wonder about the source of what is rights. In fact she cares. Seeing those who heard her story due to the dialogue going side wind it a m that I  biod qui kana kyon bi sarusit a hardly bil kush lo aa rashi pandya prdont hel ko jaa rahi deke par jo to siren die ya boy su ne ni hai te chore Lak hada mashor Allabha bank hai j telephone any du Char ji a kar jWithin pancakes ja koi Nie okay ja koi akayaka Desha kons lakh jaadelech vol lago dha comm Laga Thor silaad υ baaga package lbo  Innovators need to inform the public and they need to have the people who are there to help this ఔిపాbian లావ Roland Rohe Degust 🤅 ، ఉోిళో మైల్pei పener diontt ڍऄ建iderman ڈजीकभा Vishal ڈजीकजीकभा लगउन गण ڈब ईजीकजीकष़ बिरन emitka edna MAJH ्चा कि लान कितगे द्रहा ज़ा websha報導 these is citுa or marua ams i form these佢 summit cityu industry –thebed at the PCR –yes let's 66 yes completly