Namaskar. I'm Professor Devadeep Purghasta from the Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay. Welcome to my course, Business Fundamental for Entrepreneurs, Part 1, Internal Operations. As part of the course, it is my honour and pleasure to welcome Professor Ramesh Mangala-Sharan for a module and for sharing his experiences. As background, Professor Ramesh is an alumnus of IIT Bombay and he has finished his MBA after that from IIM Ahmedabad. He had a long and illustrious career with Mackenzie, one of the largest and most reputed consulting firms globally. He served in various pillars within Mackenzie and now he is an emeritus partner of Mackenzie. He also teaches and mentors entrepreneurial students at IIT Bombay School of Entrepreneurship. So let me hand over to Professor Ramesh for his module. I would like to share my experiences on strategy development and this comes from 30 years of experience working with corporates in India and elsewhere in the world on strategy development and more recent years working with a series of startups in my personal capacity as they have gotten started. Multiple reflections, I think the first and foremost is that strategy should be anchored in what I call purpose, vision, mission and values. Now this means different things to different people but for me, purpose is why companies exist or why organizations exist. Vision is what they want to achieve, mission is how they want to achieve it and values if you will is the boundary that everyone in the organization should always confirm with. Let me just start in reverse order, simplest way to describe values to me is what do you do when nobody is looking. So in a company say that is spread all over the world, how is it that people follow the same thing? We can go into many, many examples, you know the values of the Tata group, values of Mackenzie and company, values of PepsiCo, values of Starbucks but there are a set of behaviors that people have around the world. Let's move to purpose. I think purpose is score, purpose is not about making money. Purpose is usually more than making money. If we take examples, take Coca-Cola for instance. Coca-Cola's purpose is refresh the world, make a difference. Take another company, take a company like Danahar which is a manufacturing company. Its purpose is helping realize life's potential. Move to something else, move to a car company say Ford and they will say that we are here to drive human progress through the power of movement. So the why is very important, why can exist for human beings also, why can exist for companies also and that is where strategy always begins. So the first point I would like to make about strategy is anchor it in these words, anchor it in the why, the what, the how and the values. This is very critical as per my experience. The second and this is very important that strategy is an integrated set of consistent actions, integrated and consistent. So let's take an example, let's take an example like Toyota. Toyota has created a brand around a very efficient functioning car. Mark the words, it is efficient functioning car. So everything that they do has that as the core theme. So their plants are lean and efficient, their procurement is efficient, their dealerships are simple, they are not very flashy. So when Toyota wanted to address another segment which is the premium segment, they came up with a brand called Lexus. Lexus has a very different set of actions, their marketing budgets are higher, their dealerships look different, their engineering and components are different. However they still maintain the core of efficient manufacturing. So the second observation I would like to make on strategy is that it is integrated and it is consistent. The third and this is to me most important. I always say that strategy is as much about choosing what not to do as what you choose to do. I'm just now working with a startup that makes robots. Now they have a choice. Do they only sell the robot as a product or do they actually provide the services of the robot and become a services company? This is a very important choice according to me. It is a strategic choice on whether to stay a product company or to become a services company. If you want to do both product and services, it is best to probably think about it as two different companies. So strategy is a choice particularly around what you do not want to do. Finally, strategy is never in the air. So some people would say that strategy is 10,000 feet thinking, 20,000 feet thinking, 30,000 feet thinking. I disagree. I think strategy is really around anchoring it in reality. And what are the two realities that you have to anchor it in? The first reality is what I call the market context. The second reality is the ability to differentiate. Let's spend a minute on market context. Market context has two different elements to it. The first element to market context is market attractiveness. Here you look at things like market size, market growth, local market, global market. So what is the market and what is the attractiveness of the market? The second element of market context is what I call competitive intensity. Who is already doing it? How are they doing what they are doing? How are they getting the market share that they are getting? So market context has the element of market attractiveness and competitive intensity. But that's only one dimension of the anchoring. The second dimension of the anchoring is the ability to differentiate. Ability to differentiate is really to say what is my right to win? Is my right to win that I have proprietary IP? Is my right to win that I have access to low cost resources that will give me a cost advantage? Is my right to win that I have this incredible culture that I attract the best talent in the country and they do the best? So these two things are very important that you anchor your strategy. So anchor means that you link it to the ground. You're linking it to the ground. It is not flying in the air and you link it to the market context and the ability to differentiate. Now people say where is making money? Making money is an outcome of all this. If you have anchored your strategy in purpose, if you made a good set of integrated choices, if they are internally consistent, if it is well anchored in market context and ability to differentiate, then the fact that you make money or create value is an outcome. And creating money is an outcome for commercial enterprises. You can do a strategy for a not for profit. You can do a strategy for a person. So strategy does not mean that it is only for companies. You can do a strategy for any context. You can do a strategy for a country. You can do a strategy for a government. So therefore for commercial enterprises value creation becomes an objective. So these are some of my first reflections on strategy. Now let's move on to some other reflections on strategy. And here these are some what I call practitioner tips. The first thing I want to talk about is the bifocal perspective. What is bifocal? The ability to simultaneously have a telescopic view and a microscopic view. Telescopic view allows you to look far, allows you to look very, very far. Microscopic view allows you to look deep. And there is no conflict between the two. It is absolutely possible to have this bifocal perspective. In the context of strategy, what does bifocal perspective mean? Bifocal perspective means the ability to have a three to five year view on the rough direction you are heading in. But to also have a view on what do you want to do in three months? And I think this is quite important. In fact, I would say so that in the current context where the world is changing quite fast, it is quite important to have this two-part view. And say this is the rough direction. Like in it to a journey, like in it to you going from place A to place B. You are saying, okay, I'm heading out from Mumbai. I want to go to Pune today. So you know what direction you're going in. You roughly know that I want to get to Pune and say three to four hours time depending on conditions. That is the telescopic view. The microscopic view is okay. In the first 30 minutes, I'm going to get to New Bombay. I'm going to take a tea break. After that, I'm going to head on to the expressway. I may take another break. I don't know what the traffic in the expressway is. I may come off the expressway earlier. Those are all adjustments you make. But you don't change your direction. You're still going in the direction of Pune. That's the base of short term beds. So this is very important. And in the context of strategy of companies, it is to say that this is what we want to do. And what I have found very helpful is to break it up into three sets of initiatives. One is what are you doing for today? Which is with your current assets, with your current products. What are you doing to create bottom line today? So the first category is that second category is. What are you doing today for tomorrow? So what are you doing in terms of new products in new markets? So where am I getting revenue? I may not yet be getting profit, but that revenue will become profit over time. And three is what am I doing today for three to five years out, say new product development, new market evaluation. Now these are still initiatives. These are still initiatives that you are testing it out. And a good bifocal perspective is at this point in time, can you take all three views? Can you take a view of today for today, today for tomorrow and today for day after tomorrow to simply put it that way. So zero to one year view, one to three year view and a three to five year view. And that is the essence of the bifocal perspective. Second is strategy is to me not doing more of the same thing. If you do more of the same thing then over time you are likely to lose relevance because markets are changing, competition is changing, customers are changing and therefore staying where you are is never a good thing. So therefore strategy should have an element of continuity, but it should also have an element of change. Element of change is to do something different and the change I am talking about is not incremental change. I am talking of breakthrough change and change remember is quite difficult. Think of this as almost a solar system. If you want to go from one orbit to another orbit you need a little bit of a propulsion that takes you from one place to the other. So the change is anything that does the shift from one orbit to the other. Continuity is if you stay in one orbit you will keep spinning in that orbit. So once in a while you need to get off to another orbit and to get off to another orbit. So as you think about strategy think about what is doing more of the same which is preserving your core and what are one or two step outs and why are you doing the step outs because customers are changing, competition is changing, regulation is changing, market needs are changing and therefore you need to make the change. So the second element as I think about strategy is continuity and change. The third one which is quite important is therefore if you want to do change be clear that there will be a set of things that you do that are fixed and familiar to you.  However there will also be a set of things that are unfamiliar to you and when you are dealing with unfamiliar things to you you cannot have a fixed mindset. When you are dealing with unfamiliar things you need to have a flexible mindset. Let's take an example. Let's take an example of banks in India.   It was all the traditional thing. Look at what has happened now. There is the advent of the digital bank. You don't need to go to the bank. Ten years ago a banker could have said, oh my God this is not how we do our work. But the wisdom of the bankers was they had to create a digital bank and they created it in a completely new way. In some cases they even created a separate team. They put in it in a separate organization. They gave them different salary structures. They looked at technology differently. So they had to deal with the unfamiliar which was necessary from a strategy point of view with a very flexible and open mind. And that's quite important. The other thing I want to talk about and this is linked to the earlier point on change. We are not talking about incremental change. We are talking about big shifts. If you make big shifts it will typically require a big investment. It will require either investment of capital or it will require investment of human resources. If you are making big shifts therefore you have to say what do I do if it goes wrong? So for instance you should say okay I am making this big bet but I am going to stage get my bet. I am going to control my investments and based on how things progress I will give more but I am committing to it. Or I am going to increase the profitability of my core business so that it allows me to make the big shift. So every big shift comes with safety nets. The last point I would like to make around strategy is you have to measure it both in terms of inputs and outputs. What is the classic example of an input and an output? An output is market share. Input is whether you are calling on the right customers and whether you have the right sales force and it is quite important. So one of my reflections on strategy is it is a combination of these two ads. It is a combination of the near term and the long term what I call the telescopic and the microscopic perspective. It is a combination of continuity and change. It is a combination of doing the familiar and the unfamiliar. It is doing things that are fixed and having a flexible mindset. It is a combination of making big shifts but supporting it with safety nets and it is a combination of measuring it with inputs and outputs. So in summary what I would say is that there is a lot of jargon around strategy. There is a lot of confusion around strategy but strategy in my mind is very simple. Strategy is really anchored in the why of a company. It is a set of consistent actions that are integrated. It is about choices and it is about these things that I said. Hope this is useful and best wishes on your journey. Thank you.


The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Tiger Technician Hour. With your host, Basil Chapman. Call now, toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER>. Now, Basil Chapman. Hello everyone, Basil Chapman, Tiger Technician Hour on this 13th day of June. And let me just say before I forget, I will be doing my show tomorrow at 8am in the morning. It's going to be replayed at noon and the next week I'm away. I'm not sure yet if I'm going to be able to do any shows, live shows. I will do my news center, my opening call. That's going to be going out every day, at least the Traders Corner plus a couple of the charts. I always try to put out a lot of energy there, a lot of information for my subscribers. Oh, and thank you very much for those of you who attended last night's webinar. It is going to be up on TFNN front page. This is not like you need to get it absolutely today. If you didn't get it last night, you're really stuck. This is one that there were so many educational tools that I was discussing. So much information that is really pertinent to not just the time that we're in, to the time that I'm expecting coming up over the period of the next six to eight months, that I think it's absolutely a valuable webinar in the sense that, well, first of all, it's free in the sense that if you get it and you're unhappy, it's a 30-day money back guarantee, plus you'll get my other webinars that you may be able to peruse through or very, very informative. But I really felt that I did it to the exact minute, and a 90-minute presentation which included free thinking with charts, live charts, as well as a prepared format, and we hit it right on the button with the questions answered, et cetera. So I feel very satisfied that I accomplished at least what I wanted to do. Hopefully, as subscribers, there were some nice comments, but I hope subscribers feel the same way. Most important about this particular webinar, I show some of the technical tools that can be used all the time in trading. And that, in fact, is worth its weight in gold. Oh, talking about gold, gold is up. But let's do this quickly. Let me show you the e-mini. Everything with two tankers being either attacked or at least something that happened, conflagration. Everything was like, oh, my goodness, what's the market going to do? Well, the market has shrugged it off. It's up 75 now in the Dow, up 10 in the S&P. It's looking, yes, the e-mini. If the e-mini at 28.95, this is already the September. Oh, man, we're talking September. Half the years is about gone. So we're looking at if, at some point, the e-mini gets to 29.03 today. That's another seven points. That's a lot of points in the upside. I'm just saying. Don't get what the reason is. It was able to break into the 29s again. That's going to be a big positive, not just for the close, but for tomorrow. And if there's a sudden turn around 28, I would put 28.84 as key support. So that's seven points down. And we've got about 10 points up, 11 points up. A big difference between the two. Let's get into the nitty gritties. Nitty gritty says that we've stopped right at the Chapman Wave inside track, left side resistance level between the pink line and the green. We did have, in this particular case, it's not from the loads from a different point. We've got a left side, right side, price time extension. And that went to yesterday. And I went to the debut today. No, no, sorry. Went to yesterday. We didn't quite make it to the top bar that I said was a key level, 26,776. But we did go to 26,000. What is that? Did I just say something wrong? 248. So that was a two. I'm sorry. 26,276. What am I talking about? That would be near the record high. So it's a declining trend line. And it's a sideways move. And it stopped right at the level that we said based on the 120-minute chart. Let me show you here for a second. Here's the 120-minute chart. This is the 120-minute chart right here. So that went to a peak E. And I said to subscribers who had got in Monday a week ago at the exact low of the Dow that if there were swing traders based on the usual three to five sessions that if you're a day trader and working for a swing, it had reached at least a D. And if there was a pop-up to an E, take profits down. And that was right at the open on the 11th. And that would have been at about 26,180.  Very nice move from the 20 right here. Round about 24,000. I think it was 820. And hey, that's a pretty big 10, 11% in a very short and a week and a half. So anyway, that was just only for swing traders. And there's a plan that you could put it back at a certain level. But it was only taking a little bit off because my contention here is that there's a really, if this is just a minor blip, and we can go to 20 on the daily chart above 26,248 in the next day or two, I'm going to have to call that a new buy signal, leg B, probably almost immediately I'll have to go to a buy mode, but we'll see you go one thing at a time. Why? Because look, the, whoops, it's this one here. The stochastic is steady as a rocket, 88%. That's really nice. And the MACD is expanding. So I discussed some of these technicals last night for subscribers to my opening call. So if you're new to technical analysis or you really want to get an education, even if you're used to technical analysis, there were some things I discussed here that I think are pretty pertinent in this particular environment. All right, enough with that. Let's go to the SMP. So the down support level is at 25,920, 25,870 should really hold any sudden weakness. We'll see what happens. And in the meantime, the SMP, just to do this quickly, SMP, the weekly chart needs a lot of work in terms of having the V-shaped pattern continue based on the technicals. The MACD is okay. It's negative, but kind of flat, and that's okay. But the stochastic is only now turning up at 43%. It really needs to get a lot more. So that's going to be very important. When I'm looking at the, where did I go? Let me just put this on the side here. Thank you. Okay. When I'm looking at the support level, so let's just say 20, right here, 28, between 28, so 28,74 and 28,72, that should be a good cushion on any pullback. Wow. Any move to the upside that goes over the high of the 11th goes to 29,11, and holds at least for a couple of hours would be very good action. Now the QQQs, this is going to be very important. Why? Because if I'm looking at the QQs, in a way they're lagging, they haven't had quite as good a move from the low. And that says that if I look at the fang stocks, I mean to have a look, isn't there an index? That's a fang index. I wonder what is, let me just do this real quickly. Facebook up today, up 2.82, it's bumping up against this longer term, let's call it an intermediate term daily from the 198.48 top of the 25th down to where it's hit three days in a row. Look at that trend line. I'll make this green because if it breaks above it, that's going to be good. But actually I'm going to make it red, and then I'm going to say, let's do another one above that. So I'll make this look, I'm making it rare or pink in this case. And then I'm going to put another one just above it because it needs to clear that, it needs to actually start trading. I'm just putting it kind of there. And it needs to, Facebook has to go above 180.50 to really show that it's got a little bit of strength to help the MACD improve. But so far I just said, you know what, chop, chop, chop for Facebook, can continue a little longer. I'll be right back, down to 66 recipes up, 9.32 Basil Chapman, Tiger Technicians Hour, and host of the Tiger Technicians Hour. The Taz Profile Scanner is the most revolutionary piece of trading software that you will ever try. Wouldn't you like to approach the markets with confidence? As you begin your trading day, it's likely that you'll be faced with lots of decisions. In order to make the best decision, the first thing you'll need is a strategy that will help you minimize your risks. Whether we're in a bull or a bear market, a good strategy is to have the tools needed to help you scan and analyze the markets before you trade. The Taz Profile Scanner instantly scans and filters over 2,500 global financial markets, such as stocks, ETFs, commodity futures, and forex. 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Taz Profile Scanner is a brand new website. You can still visit us at the same TFNN.com URL. But when you do, you'll see a new and improved homepage with a much simpler navigation, whether you're watching Tiger TV live in high definition, or just accessing your newsletter subscriptions. We even have new pricing in six months and yearly options. Check out the new TFNN.com now and experience all the upgrades. TFNN.com Educating Investors. 827-6648 Internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER> Hi folks, we're back and I have to apologize to Mark. Mark, are you there? Mark in Denver. Yes, I'm here. Thank you. I saw your name right in the beginning of the show and my producer said all right, off the back we have Mark in Denver and I even said okay. And then in such a habit of my prologue that I got carried away. You want to look at USX Steel, correct? Yeah, and I enjoyed your prologue so it's all good. Yeah, I nibbled on it yesterday around 1370. Let's start to look like it's starting to set up a little bit, but I was wondering what your thoughts are. I took about a half of the issue. Okay, so this is very good. You actually went in yesterday to United States Steel. You got $14.07 up 32. Nicely above your entry point. I've been looking at this really closely and I'm trying to decipher because for every webinar I don't know how long, I've always talked about steels. Last night I decided I would not talk about the steels go to I wait a little bit because there's a lot going on and I'm thinking that if there is going to be some kind of amelioration between China and the United States with the tariffs and with the what is bought and what is not and what they're going to be doing I think at some point you will see the whole steel sector SLX is the symbol for the steel sector Van Eck Vector Steel ETF trading at $0.37 up $0.48 I would not be surprised if this whole congestion area down towards the lows is going to turn into a basing form. So in a sense, I'm not sure if you I heard kind of a click. I'm not sure Mark are you there still? If you don't mind what I'm going to do real quickly is I'm going to go to the Chapman projections of different timeframes to the 1412 to 1420 strong resistance on a shorter term basis. I don't know if it's short term in the daily but it did repel the price before but on the 10 minute chart that's the area that between 14 and 1412 and it's trying to tackle that right now. I'm going to make this suggestion. So you've got in a position but you do intend at some point to add do you have a price that you would start to add at or would you wait for it to rally and then maybe see if it's building some kind of weekly strength. I'd like to probably do that second part. Okay so then this is what I'm going to say to you. First of all, you're the one that chose to pull the trigger and to get in yesterday. I have to give you credit for that because it's been a tough sell if you're looking folks on the weekly chart in the middle just have a look at this every time. This is on our radar for ages. Then I say I'm done with steel because it's just not doing what I want and we watch it to make this chapter 8 pattern lower lows it takes out the left side goes to lower lows. This is a 200 period moving average it goes all the way from the 47 area down to the 25 and 27 actually and then it breaks down then it tries to rally towards it from the 17 level and can't get it stops at 21 and then it goes all the way down to the most the doji low and this is the candle that I was looking at just the other day I thought wow at 1167 that doji in a leg E and then in a trough E you know that that's it to me that the risk reward was getting far more beneficial and weighted towards the reward side then the risk it could be time so here I'm going to say to you congratulations on your entry because if steel is going to make a move at all within a couple of days it could go very quickly to 14 point 90 15.10 and then you say oh my it's already up 4 it's up 35 or 6% from the low that's a really big move and then you look at the monthly chart or the week and you say oh my goodness there is just a horrible chart so yes what I'm going to say to you first of all congratulations secondly I'm going to say I don't know if you have a stop at all but I'm thinking that just in this particular move at this particular time for you as steel I probably if I got in right now if not if it was my subscribers but me personally I would say I would not put a stop in at this point because there's just enough evidence to say on a shorter term momentum play the technicals are suggesting that there should be very strong support in the 1360 to 1340 area and if that does hold you're going to see higher highs and higher lows so I would not want to be stopped out with a tight stop because it's going to be hard to get in a second time if it suddenly moves higher if it moves lower than you say oh that was a good move but I'm looking at this and I'm with you I think that the technicals and everything about it are suggesting that unless it's really bad even more bad news to come this is the basing area but the second the second point I'm going to say to you maybe it's time and not price that if in two weeks time US Steel has not taken out the 1167 low or not even taken out the low of the fifth of June at 1275 but it's stuck in this area with slightly high highs but not going anywhere I think it's trying to form a base so in that regard you've already said you've got a half position now is that correct right okay so I would I I don't really want to advise you because you've done this very nicely you've thought it through and you've done it what I am going to say is these are my suggestions you might want to take them or not I think a half position for a stock that's been beaten down and beaten down but still hasn't had a resolution to make it really a viable stock I'd say hold off on the other half maybe the other half could have a quarter position and that you add you're in in the high 13s maybe you just put a little put a position in and maybe 13 58 1362 you just put a small position in as a feeler position because if it's going to work it shouldn't it should if it should slide that slide based on the techniques I'm looking at should be brief interday and it should close at the high of the day and then you've got yourself another a tranche of the buy that you wanted to have but you've still got enough money to say on this position you've got a quarter left and that quarter could be used if it breaks to a legacy above 1454 at 1455 I would put another position if you haven't got the second position then I would say to you at 15 and legs see to the upside at 1455 I'd add another position but I don't think I'd go for the full position at this particular time I'd rather use the other half and split it so that I've got a little bit left over for who knows anything can happen at any time you either want to be able to grab something on the way down because it just it looks like a brief emotional response to something that's going on or you want to just have it there ready at any point but I don't think I'd get the full position yet you can even start thinking full position as it climbs and it goes to leg C that's where you can put the extra little bit on and then you're ready you're ready to do but the way it's had such a deep correction just to me that there should be maybe not an arch formation but there should be some testing of the mid-13's at some point and that's going to be the clue but hey nice entry point I'm with you that was a very good entry point congratulations I liked it better than AK feel that like a little weaker to me I thought I'd try this one good so let me know how it goes thank you for calling I appreciate it Mark okay bye bye we'll be right back since 1984 Basil Chapman has been using the Chapman wave methodology to advise traders of his expert market opinion while originally hand drawing charts from the late 1970s into the 1980s Basil noticed that prices under most circumstances virtually always had a certain number of legs to the upside before declining sharply later Basil found that computer software which included the standard technical indicators enhanced the degree of accuracy in calling price turns as well as market trend calls thus was born the Chapman wave sequence using the Chapman wave methodology along with other indicators Basil Chapman advises his subscribers of his expert market opinion each market day with his opening call newsletter right now you can get a two week free trial to the opening call Basil's daily trading newsletter by visiting the front page of TFNN.com cancel at any time during that trial including nothing get your two week free trial to Basil's newsletter the opening call today by visiting TFNN.com the path of least resistance is David white's daily trading newsletter and if you're looking for active trading ideas then now's a perfect time for a 30 day free trial to this powerful daily trading advisory service David uses his years of trading experience to offer his subscribers his trading ideas each morning in his path of least resistance newsletter 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first of its kind program the art of timing the trade charts allows you to scan thousands of stocks for Fibonacci formation setups including guardleafs, ABCs, butterflies and much more the art of timing the trade charts is designed to help you when scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days weeks or even months searching to find and right now we're offering licenses available at only $79 a month we are so confident that you're going to love this new charting software that will even give you a 30 day unconditional money back guarantee don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software get your copy of the art of timing the trade charts today by visiting TFNN.com this segment is brought to you by Think or Swim for more information just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com Hi folks we're back so GNRC is a generic holding I believe that's in generators and I'm not sure if I did this in the den the other day about 2-3 days ago or if I did it live but what I was saying is that I'm thinking that this is actually not a G that's going to be a leg in the daily chart trading 64.92 up to $1.83 well it went to a very powerful leg from let me just see so it went to 65.70 from the 53 area it went over 10 points higher to 60 65.73 on the 11th and that's what we were looking at and I believe I maybe it was yesterday and then I said this everything about this looks like it's more like a new leg A and I probably would have to say it's an alternate count but everything about it with the MACD so strong and stochastic over 80% 82% a little lower than it was the other day I like it and I think it's a very good person that was asking about in the den I said yep I like that it could pull back a little bit but if there's any pullback at all you want to actually be thinking of adding to your position and now it's extended very nicely in the daily chart if it's able to get to the 66 I have to call this an absolute this is all-time I'm sure this is an all-time high yep all-time high right now it's above the high that was made back in 2014 in March of 62.50 made a beautiful extended cup formation you see this pattern yeah this is I think what the dollar is going to look like in the end in the monthly chart so yeah congratulations very good good position and yeah I agree massive five-year cup formation so okay now let's go to a couple of things that I'm missing here I just wanted to say that the IWM is up on a percentage basis up 0.86 and the Dow's earning up 0.18 and the S&P is up 0. this is 0.85 percent and the Dow is up 0.18 percent S&P is up 0.23 so this is what I've been talking about and I spoke about in my webinar last night how we could rotate and we could go through different scenarios and even stocks that are in a strong group group you would find some that are very weak and some of the weak groups you've got some outstanding stocks for instance look at Merck Merck which I mentioned last night has had a spectacular move gone to an all-time high yesterday when I was showing it on my in my webinar and yet the PPH which is the Van Eck Vectors Pharmaceutical ETF look at this it's in the lower range it looks terrible so specific stocks can do very well remember I was looking at Facebook just a moment ago so in that thang selection Amazon holding nicely at 1870 up 15 right here look at the monthly chart it's got this triangle formation I have to tell you something I can't stand these I draw them all the time and the theory is that if you break the trend line the declining trend line you go above it you should go back to the top on the left side well for me that's just the cup formation of the V-shaped formation and on the downside if you break the lower support you should go all the way down I found that you can continue in an apex pattern the sideways triangle and keep going it can frustrate the heck out of you it's almost like a rectangle in a way so it's not one of my favorite I like to use with other chaplain wave techniques like this chaplain wave inside track repellent zone meaning that if Amazon starts to trade at 1985 at any point it's not far away it's 1985 it's like 110 points higher well that should be about the sound I don't know why it's cutting out cutting in cutting out Netflix is just it's struggling it is just struggling so that's the way I'm looking at it so just let me recap for a moment I was saying that Merck was very strong and a very weak sector Facebook is just kind of so so Amazon is strong in in a sideways big consolidation eight month consolidation phase with some of the fang stocks so each sector now is working kind of independently and that's another focus that I had last night so I'm going to for my subscribers maybe this weekend maybe it'll make sometime in the week I'll get back to the whole steel sector I've let it lay off for a little while I just wanted to see how how to behave this week and there are some signs yes Disney that's a good point here let me see Disney you know I like Disney in fact for subscribers I was going to grab some Disney but that was a choice between Disney and PLD which is the prologous which is even now making all-time highs that's the one I chose it was really it was one or the other and that's the one I chose I do think that Disney is actually for a while I've been saying Disney's acting superb it really is look at the cup formation in the weekly chart look at this monthly it looks like it wants to extend if it goes to a higher high I'm not calling that f I'm calling that f slash c in the monthly chart alright next question I had was IYT I look at the IYT transports up $1.42 thank goodness a little bit of a leg C right here just bumping up against the 200 period moving average I had more statements than anything else this morning where if I'll give it to you exactly because it was it was worded very well here we go when a trend is only in a when a trend is truly in a v-shaped pattern there's absolutely no time to think about a digester phase or vocation time to think about adding to your position you simply need to add to your position any time there's the slightest pullback that to me is the definition of v-shaped pattern I believe we're in on the daily charts Kevin yeah Kevin I agree with you I'm just not sure let me just go back to the daily chart of the Dow which is kind of what we're talking about this v-shaped pattern right now has different conditions to the v-shaped pattern that unfolded from the December low this is a secondary move to the upside based on other factors sort of similar factors but factors that are now in a different phase of their own development that that's tariffs that's rates you know I'm getting tons of stories right now about the about the yeah let me just give it to you oh it's just so nicely worded I hope I can find it it was about the yields dawn dawn dawn the real yield will I find it okay maybe I'll have to use the next break but it was just a whole bunch of information about there it is okay if I can just click on it now to premium hit record low amount investors in bonds who are willing to take risk of longer term versus short term bonds of being come come what of being something of being let me move that over of being compensated in interest then another one that said right here where we we're talking about the three year the three year over the 10 year you know this is these are all very important I know a lot of people are now talking about this I don't know if I want to take time right now maybe tomorrow's technical Friday I'll get into it all I can say is there is no other place to go and that's the reason why the market is doing well I think that that makes it as simple as you can nimby or whatever it's called what did I say in the TLT I'll be back and we'll talk about it in a moment it's called if you're in the CD market and looking for a secure investment the Tiger first mortgage program may work for you that same $50,000 investment in the Tiger first mortgage program would give you 3500 per year or 14,000 over the four years what should you prefer 6200 or 14,000 of interest on your investment if you would like more information about the Tiger first mortgage program you can call me at<PHONE_NUMBER> that's<PHONE_NUMBER> it's amazing to think that Tom O'Brien started his weekly gold report 17 years ago with the first issue published April 7, 2002 when gold was trading at under $300 per ounce gold peaked at more than $1,900 in 2011 and after spending many years consolidating at lower prices gold may be poised for its next big run Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly gold report every Monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the XAU, HUI, GDX, the dollar, bonds, South African rand as well as 25 different mining equities with specific high sell recommendations as of April 1st of this year the gold report currently has 8 active positions with an 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loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor four side fund services LLC don't forget you can listen to TFNN live today go to TFNN dot com then hit watch Tiger TV that's TFNN dot com then hit watch Tiger TV for the latest market information so let me just get to this HBAN which is Huntington bank shares as I was looking at the chart and everything I thought I know this name I know it very well um yeah Huntington bank shares had a spectacular move a couple years ago and then it kind of was kind of dull and then last year 17 17 into 18 middle of 18 this time last year it had a really nice run again again from somebody in the 10-11 area up to the 16s and it's pulled back sharply into the 11s and now straight in 1349 so Basel is the current price of HBAN a good entry does it look like it has formed the base at the best of days tip Tim I'm looking at this and I'm suggesting to you that the pattern that I speak about very often where the lower case H goes to a lower case M is really the pattern if you're thinking of a trade I wouldn't do anything more than get a small position at 13.49 I'd have a fairly tight stop I wouldn't want to go below 13 13 29 13 19 and if it had to rise from here to 1365 I'd raise the stop why because I think it's going to try if we can get to 1365 there's a really good chance 1378 200 period exponential moving averages in the cars and then you can see a 1420 in the H pattern with a higher low on this side it kind of took out the trendline support right here you'll see that it really broke it quite sharply but that's not the issue the issue is that the MACD is trying to turn back up and the stochastic is rallying although it's only a 38% so as a trade yes if it turns into a longer-term position you'll be able to add to it because the next if it goes to 14.25 the next pullback should make the 1350s very strong support as it makes higher highs and higher lows so the answer is if you've got your eye on it and you really you like it it's something you followed this is probably an area where there's a good chance that if we can hold support and I'd only give a 28 30 cents stop right now I'd be looking at and say it has to work and it has to work very quickly but if it does work I think you can get a leg C above 1378 but it has to be within I'd say by Friday week maximum Monday a week you've got to see this moving up into that area hope that helps you question I had was oh we've got Adam in Ohio Adam how are you not too bad how is yourself today I'm good I'd be much happier if it wasn't raining and cold and miserable and summer had really started this is the longest start I can ever remember the rain wind is not going nowhere like the market ah man so you'd like to look at what Adam Amazon and earlier you was explaining the chart there's was a technical difficulty with the with the sound that's why I missed out I did not have a chance to back again to to hear you could you go over back again yes so Amazon and we have to consider Amazon as the old Sears and Roebuck I spoke about this a long time ago is I said this is going to be the case of Amazon is the equivalent of to 21st century Sears and Roebuck where everyone had big fixed Sears and Roebuck and they would have mail orders and all that sort of thing so you have to consider that this is a 100 year development in other words what's happening it might not be Amazon but what Amazon is doing right now is so evolutionary it's so revolutionary that it is really a company that you have to consider in a portfolio even though it's so expensive at 1872 you have to consider that it is some part of your portfolio should have a little bit of Amazon if you are looking at the very long term or if you have say children or grandchildren that you want them to you know something that you want to give them as a present at some point this is the kind of stock that I'd be looking at even if it had to have a big pullback in the next three four five months another big pullback but I don't think it will but it looks to me like this is really a major it is really highlighting technology the avid enthusiasm that people have really just embraced the technology that allows you to press a button and even on the same day let alone the next day you might be able to get those goods and it could be something as simple as a pencil you just order one pencil and you get them delivered so that has very negative implications for the consumer in terms of packaging and all the ways that goes with it but in terms of immediacy I'm saying Amazon is really a power to consider in your longer term outlook now shorter term there's a resistance level just like the Dow that we're looking at here I've drawn this line in I'm going to make this one green right at the moment I don't know if you're able to see the charts while you're on the phone with me if you don't in the archive you'll see it and what I've done is I've drawn what we call the Chapman wave inside track repellent zone and it's just it's held the price back right here so if Amazon in the next I don't think it should be more than Tuesday at the latest it got Friday, it got Monday give it a few days by Tuesday if Amazon is trading at 1905 and it's at 1871 right now that to me is a breakout with the MACD improving the stochastics at 84 that's very strong in the daily the weekly chart is holding quite nicely and that would say to me that there's a really good chance that the Dow that same downtrend line but in the bigger chart in the 2050.50 high of September at peak E in the Chapman wave going down to the most recent high of 1964 I'm going to draw this in I'll do the same thing I'll make this green because the prices are going to be different because it's a monthly chart and in this particular instance new parallel I'll make that pink there we go pink all right so that says do you think in the couple of days coming it's going to go back down to test the 1825 1830 and from there will turn back up so we will load up on that time oh do you have a short position not really no not yet I'm going long but because keep going up to hit that where it is right now so I'm trying to see if I could because I'm looking to get some lead on it okay okay I figured there was a particular reason for you doing that asked me that question especially for the downside your real question Adam am I correct in saying your real question is over the next three days what do I think is the base that the low that could be made in Amazon if there is going to be a dip is that the question yes yes okay so on the first level of support let me show you something I'll make this much is when you get a chance have a look at the archives because I'm trying to show you all the techniques that I'm using in the 120 minute chart it went to a peak D at a peak D the fourth high speak in the chapter where you can expect that that's where you might get a deeper correction that's what we've got but it's also turned into a cup formation so by the end of the day if Amazon is actually trading it's up 15 at 1871 we don't know what's going to happen by the end of the day anything can happen but let's just say two scenarios the first scenario is that it holds either it holds nicely here or that because the market is holding at three o'clock there's a bound of buying that comes in and pushes Amazon into the 1875 area so up another four five points can Adam can you stay a moment yes go ahead okay so I'll when I get back I'll give you exactly what I'm looking at trying to sum it up very quickly in the meantime Jerry in the back now you're waiting a line you're looking at Jesus which has just been absolutely fantastic today it has a bit of a turnaround I'll talk about that as 500 for the last 12 6 and 3 months timer digest also ranks me as the number one market timer for gold as well the fact is markets can be time and I'll teach you the exact set of tools that I use that has transformed me into one of the best at what I do sign up for mastering probability today by clicking on the newsletter tab on the homepage of tfn.com and get immediate access to workshops where I take you step by step how to use an extraordinary set of tools as well as provide great market calls to sign up today if you haven't checked out the newsletters page of tfn.com what are you waiting for all of the tfn newsletters are informative up to date affordable and must have for every trader looking to gain a competitive informational edge in today's markets tfn newsletters cover every aspect of the markets to offer you the very latest in market news plus new subscribers get to test drive our newsletters risk free for 30 days from all aspects of the markets including stocks bonds metals commodities and tech there's a newsletter to fit your needs exclusively from tfn stay informed each day you trade and get the competitive edge that will help you stay ahead of the game visit our newsletters page by going to tfn.com and click the newsletters button near the top of the page tfn.com educating investors you know what's cool taking something that's good for you something specifically formulated to help with weight loss better sleep stress reduction and the need to detox nico our hunter and gather ancestors found all their nutritional requirements for health in their wild environment but today our food sources no longer contain the vitamins minerals and nutrients our bodies need to stay healthy and strong that's why we need primal edge daily nutrition it includes a special blend of ionic soil based vitamins minerals fatty and amino acids and an easy to use liquid form primal edge is powered by highly concentrated folic and humic acids nature's preferred delivery system they've been called miracle molecules because like sunlight air and water life cannot exist without them that's right page they ensure we receive all the nutrition we need to be healthy and thrive we take it every morning primal edge formulated and approved by nico and page of living a primal lifestyle buy it today for just eighty nine dollars click on the primal edge banner on the front page of tfnn.com Hi folks this is Steve Rhodes stay tuned for another great hour of the trader's edge heard here at tfnn.com Hi folks we're back and we're back with Adam in Ohio Adam you're still there oops I'm not sure okay Adam I'm going to do this because if it's being recorded you're able to play back in Amazon on the Chapman wave support levels 1864 is what we've got as key support and below that is actually 1876 so yeah 1864 will be any any sudden weakness over the next two days but if you're looking at leaps I wouldn't worry about a hundred points in Amazon you could go ahead with your leap at any point because I mean we're looking at higher highs at some point for Amazon it'll be back on track so that's my thinking I wouldn't get fussy about 100 points 50 points you're looking at something that's going to be trading in the 2050 area at some point in 2019 and even higher so please that's my look at it now let's go Jerry you're still there yeah it's my fault I was late yeah I'm just thinking of lighting up on the stock it's been looks a little over a bit in a long time and it's in an IRA account so I can sell some and buy it back so okay you know what I'm going to suggest I'm going to be doing my show tomorrow at 8am in the morning I don't want to rush this I think you're right that maybe lightening up a little bit but actually I see support and with interest rates they must be making a bundle with rates like this so I'm inclined to say to you if you've got a long-term position if you want to lighten up just take a little bit off right now at 170.01 but I I don't think I'd do more than that and I will deal with this because I want to do MasterCard American Express and visa together so tomorrow morning at 8 when I do my show I'll do some of this as well okay you might even want to call in if you're up at that time but I will do visa I like it in the MACD is good so casting is good I'm just inclined to say stocks that make new highs tend to continue making your highs you know that oh yeah now it's been a beauty yeah I don't want to hey thanks a lot thanks a lot sorry for the late call and take care okay no problem I'll do a little bit on it tomorrow I'll make a note right now I hope I'm reminded about it as well folks stay tuned you've got Steve Rose coming up you've got Dave White you've got Tom O'Brien and check out my webinar from last night in my opening call you get a city day subscription with the money back guarantee and I think it was worth it I'll talk a little bit more about it tomorrow morning have a great day and next week I am on vacation so Larry Pezzavento has just started his brand new service Fibonacci 24-7 and he's already delivering content to his subscribers on a daily basis when the markets opened and even on weekends each Monday you'll receive Larry's written report that provides detailed commentary and a summary on the charts and videos that Larry sends out and throughout the week when warranted Larry will send out via charts or videos or both the key markets that he is watching during the day this will be up to the date active trading information that will help you in your daily trading in Larry's first week alone he sent out 25 charts six videos and a full report to his subscribers in just one week if you're a technical trader that uses patterns and retracement to trade then Larry service Fibonacci 24-7 is something that you must try right now new subscribers can get a full 30 day money back guarantee with nothing to risk sign up now to Larry Pezzavento Fibonacci 24-7 by visiting the front page of TFNN.com under trading newsletters


Between 1815 and 1845, the world changed more dramatically than in any other previous 30-year period. Humanity began to break the food trap, which had kept hundreds of generations barely producing enough to feed the living, keeping almost nothing to provide for the future. Political, social, economic systems all around, either revolutionized, reformed, disappeared or expanded to new heights of power and influence. Technologists and tinkerers unleashed invisible, universal forces to empower human development and even collapse space and time. Welcome to Liberty Chronicles, a project of libertarianism.org. I'm Anthony Comegna. A growing number of Americans felt the early pulse of a new world developing beneath their feet and by their actions during these decades. Yet the roots of these changes ran deep in Atlantic and early modern history. The colonial period was one of booming production and commerce too, a deeply commercialized culture noted by its fashions, ever-changing tastes and bourgeois values. During the 18th century, scientific learning and technical tinkering converged to shrink the globe as much as possible. But the pace of change started slowly and sped up with time. As the world transformed and new possibilities and problems surrounded people, the dislocating effects stretched from one generation to another. Across even modest leaps of time, the world looked completely different and this kind of change could be disorienting. The classic example of history-driven existential crisis is Washington Irving's story of Rip Van Winkle. Rip lived in an old Dutch community of late colonial New York. The countryside was dazzling and beautiful, stretching on forever and ever in every direction, but society presented certain challenges to men like Rip. He was lazy, slow, accustomed to easy work and hen-pecked and overburdened at home. Rip Van Winkle escaped the demands of private life by entering the field of politics, always months behind the action in Europe, of course. The ancient local Dutch patriarchs gathered in their leader's tavern to discuss the implications of policies made by men and ocean away. Delighted by their own wisdom and conversation, they sat and talked, but little else. A posthumous writing of Diedrich Nickerbacher by Washington Irving, 1819. Times grew worse and worse with Rip Van Winkle as years of matrimony rolled on. For a long while he used to console himself when driven from home by frequenting a kind of perpetual club of the sages, philosophers, and other idle personages of the village, which held its sessions on a bench before a small inn designated by a rubricant portrait of his majesty, George III. Here they used to sit in the shade through a long, lazy summer's day, talking listlessly over village gossip or telling endless sleepy stories about nothing. But it would have been worth any statement's money to have heard the profound discussions which sometimes took place when by chance an old newspaper fell into their hands from some passing traveler. How solemnly they would listen to the contents as drawled out by Derek Van Bummel, the schoolmaster. A dapper learned little man who was not to be daunted by the most gigantic word in the dictionary and how sagely they would deliberate upon public events some months after they had taken place. The opinions of this honto were completely controlled by Nicholas Wetter, a patriarch of the village and landlord of the inn. From even this stronghold the unlucky Rip was at length routed by his termagant wife who would suddenly break in upon the tranquility of the assemblage and call the members all to not. Nor was that august personage Nicholas Wetter himself sacred from the daring tongue of this terrible varago who charged him outright with encouraging her husband in habits of idleness. Poor Rip was at last reduced almost to despair and his only alternative to escape from the labor of the farm and the clamor of his wife was to take gun in hand and stroll away into the woods. Hen pecked even in his place of escape, Rip and his dog retire to wander the cat's skills wilderness. After some hours and many beautiful visions of the countryside, the two find a clearing with most unusual inhabitants. A number of small leprechaun like woods people invite Rip to an impromptu ginfest and our hero drinks himself into a deep sleep. He awakens an unknown amount of time later and does what any good colonial American would do. He looked round for his gun, but in place of the clean well-oiled fouling piece he found an old firelock lying by him, the barrel encrusted with rust, the lock falling off and the stock worm eaten. He now suspected that the grave roisterers of the mountains had put a trick upon him and having dosed him with liquor had robbed him of his gun. As he approached the village he met a number of people, but none whom he knew which somewhat surprised him for he had thought himself acquainted with everyone in the country round. Their dress too was of a different fashion from that to which he was accustomed. They all stared at him with equal marks of surprise and whenever they cast their eyes upon him, invariably stroked their chins. The constant recurrence of this gesture induced Rip involuntarily to do the same when to his astonishment he found his beard had grown a foot long. He had now entered the skirts of the village, a troop of strange children ran at his heels hooting after him and pointing at his gray beard. The dogs too, not one of which he recognized for an old acquaintance, barked at him as he passed. The very village was altered. It was larger and more populous. There were rows of houses which he had never seen before and those which had been his familiar haunts had disappeared. Strange names were over the doors, strange faces at the windows. Everything was strange. His mind now misgave him. He began to doubt whether both he and the world around him were not bewitched. Surely this was his native village, which he had left but a day before. There stood the Catskill Mountains. There ran the Silver Hudson at a distance. There was every hill and dale precisely as it had always been. Rip was sorely perplexed.  He now hurried forth and hastened to his old resort, the village inn, but it too was gone. A large rickety wooden building stood in its place with great gaping windows, some of them broken and mended with old hats and petticoats. And over the door was painted the Union Hotel by Jonathan Doolittle. Instead of the great tree that used to shelter the quiet little dutch inn of yore, there now was reared a tall naked pole with something on top that looked like a red nightcap, and from it was fluttering a flag on which was a singular assemblage of stars and stripes. All this was strange and incomprehensible. He recognized on the sign, however, the ruby face of King George under which he had smoked so many a peaceful pipe, but even this was singularly metamorphosed. The red coat was changed for one of blue and buff. A sword was held in the hand instead of a scepter. The head was decorated with a cocked hat, and underneath was painted in large characters, General Washington. There was as usual a crowd of folk about the door, but none that rip recollected. The very character of the people seemed changed. There was a busy, bustling, disputatious tone about it, instead of the accustomed phlegm and drowsy tranquility. He looked in vain for the sage Nicholas Vetter with his broad face, double chin, and fair long pipe, uttering clouds of tobacco smoke instead of idle speeches. Or Van Bummel, the schoolmaster, doling forth the contents of an ancient newspaper. In place of these, a lean, billious-looking fellow with his pockets full of handbills was haranguing vehemently about the rights of citizens, elections, members of Congress, Liberty, Bunkers Hill, Heroes of 76 and other words, which were a perfect Babylonish jargon to the bewildered Van Winkle. The appearance of Rip with his long, grizzled beard, his rusty, fouling piece, his uncouth dress, and the army of women and children at his heels soon attracted the attention of the tavern politicians. They crowded round him, eyeing him from head to foot with great curiosity. The order bustled up to him and drawing him partly aside inquired on which side he voted. Rip stared in vacant stupidity. Another short but busy little fellow pulled him by the arm and rising on tiptoe inquired in his ear whether he was federal or Democrat. Rip was equally at a loss to comprehend the question when a knowing, self-important old gentleman in a sharp cocked hat made his way through the crowd, putting them to the left and right with his elbows as he passed and planting himself before Van Winkle. With one arm a Kimbo and the other resting on his cane, his keen eyes and sharp hat penetrating as it were into his very soul, demanding in an austere tone what brought him to the election with a gun on his shoulder and a mob at his heels and whether he meant to breed a riot in the village. Alas, gentlemen, cried Rip somewhat dismayed, him a poor quiet man, a native of the place and a loyal subject of the king God bless him. Here a general shout burst from the bystanders. A Tory, a Tory, a spy, a refugee, hustle him away with him. It was with great difficulty that the self-important man in the crooked hat restored order and having assumed a tenfold austerity of brow demanded again of the unknown culprit what he came here for and whom he was seeking. A young woman finally steps in on Rip's behalf and we learn that she is his daughter and Rip has been lost, sleeping in the woods for a generation. The entire world has changed around him and poor Rip Van Winkle is left to wonder hopelessly how he will fit in, what he will make of himself, how he will get over what he's lost, deeply bitter about the cruelty of time. Washington Irving published Rip in 1819, right at the beginning of America's sharp climb to the 19th century hockey stick, the explosion of economic productivity usually called the Industrial Revolution. People of the day saw and understood these changes but not their full implications. They could not, as it were, see beyond the point of singularity to imagine life after these immense changes happened. In geometry a singularity is a point on a circle blocking a line of sight from the rest of the curve.  No one in 1815 knew exactly what was coming by 1845 but everyone knew it would be radically different. People knew something amazing, magical even, was happening before them and by their very hands. Historians though, separated by a hundred years and more, have often been perfectly content to treat these many hundreds and thousands of many transformations as singular lumps. There's the 18th century agricultural revolution. George Washington read the same sorts of agricultural science and plantation organization manuals that Julius Caesar used on his own property. Two millennia separated them but agriculture had really not changed much until inventions like the cotton gin and sciences like chemistry entered the field. There was the late 18th and early 19th century industrious revolution. Proper heavy industry did not exist before modern steel mills arrived in the 1860s and 70s. Instead, bourgeois middle class cultures of industriousness increased production in earlier periods. Then we have a transportation revolution in which steamships, turnpike roads, canals and railroads dramatically cut transit time and shrank space beyond recognition. There's a market revolution by which people previously confined to local markets are steadily knit together into national global scale, impersonal marketplaces. We have a communications revolution aided by transportation in markets but including fantastic technologies like the telegraph collapsing time and space together in a single invention. And finally the industrial revolution with levels of capital investment far beyond the individual's capacity marked by explosions of corporate charters, new kinds of labor, new forms of class consciousness, new politics and staggeringly high amounts of output. One after another these revolutions seem to absorb all events into themselves and if the historian lets them they easily become explanations for everything. Historians of all schools and stripes have been guilty of this sort of centralization of concepts, this constant dumping of history and human agency into the revolution garbage bins when literally everything can be neatly and cleanly explained with reference to the gargantuan, impersonal, disembodied market revolution. We must ask, does this concept or any of the others actually help explain anything? Progressives and Marxists in the early 20th century like Vernon Parrington painted rather cartoonish divisions of agrarian heroes and gangster villains battling each other. They offered a rigid wealth-based class analysis that separated everyone and everything into its proper box specially prepared for them by impersonal economic forces like our flurry of revolutions. During the more nationalist 1940s and 50s the consensus school countered progressives with reference to the all-powerful data. Empirical history supposedly showed that class was insignificant at least in America. Everyone was a solid Democrat and Republican here either a capitalist or a capitalist in waiting with few exceptions. Consensus school historians argued that our great revolutions pushed a Democratic people inevitably toward the New Deal historians love so much. In the revisionist 1960s and 70s the new social history revived the role of conflict in the social sciences and the New Left ran away with it. Historians in these generations argued that statistics must always be interpreted and the historians job was uncovering human stories subcultures, gendered and racialized perspectives on the same events and so on. If one stopped looking at the big books written by old dead white men even just for a little while you might just see the world differently. Today historians have tried to synthesize these approaches to the past. They use statistics to illustrate the actions of real people. They recognize the importance of everyone especially the marginalized and they are careful to note the limitations of any one interpretive framework like the market revolution. They know that no one concept can explain everything and if it seems to it's probably not very useful but they still don't quite know how to present the past in a meaningful way without leaning on these big concepts as the prime movers of change. The best historians then are those who manage to present the past purely as the sum total of individual choices and actions. There are many, many historians out there who basically write as individualists. They just don't know it or consciously profess it. In the modern Marxists we can find history from below and sensitivity to the marginalized. They challenge the status quo of powerful interests. In postmodernism we can find scholars who study the agency of all people without forcing on them an artificial class or national experience. Though they may fall into gender or feminism from time to time the best of these scholars show the immense complexity of individual experience. And in the great mass of centrist liberal historians today we find dozens and hundreds maybe thousands of very good studies with solid methods that make clear contributions. They are best when they treat individuals and worst when they project new neoliberalism back into the past. The libertarian historian can corral make what's most valuable from each add that secret element of methodological individualism and produced robust, meaningful narratives of the past. We can make space for consensus. The marketplace after all coordinates billions of changing preferences pretty well. We can make space for conflict. People with power tend to abuse it and those whose liberty is violated tend to resist. We can make space for market revolutions many many some things did dramatically change about the way people lived their lives between about 1815 and 1845. But the humble yet fundamental libertarian insight is that individual human beings with agency as such made those revolutions happen. It was everywhere and always individual people their interests and ideas that made change happen. People chose to act and live differently. They chose to use scientific knowledge to manipulate their environment. They chose to think and live according to new principles. They desired to collapse time and space and manifested their wishes with deliberate action. Don't get me wrong. People by no means choose all of the constraints they are under. But no change ever happens without individual choice or option ever chose anything. It's a simple point but we'll see simple points of departure can often make all the difference. Liberty Chronicles is a project of Libertarianism.org It is produced by Test Terrible. If you've enjoyed this episode of Liberty Chronicles please rate, review and subscribe to us on iTunes. For more information on Liberty Chronicles visit Libertarianism.org


The future of flying, God, I think last week or the week before, I told you about this report out of, I think, Juniors at Cambridge University in the UK that basically said, look, if we're going to achieve, we're going to achieve net zero by 2050, what really we're saying is we need to ban all airplanes, we can't fly, I mean, if you're going to fly, there's no way to achieve net zero, the technology is not there, we're not going to have electric planes, there's no real alternative fuels. Net zero is just, it will force our hand, and what we're going to experience, and there's really no option here, is no more flying. And that sounds right to me, if they're serious about the goal, then that's what it's probably going to require. But it's hard to sell that. It's really hard to sell that to people that just ban flying, we're just going to ground all the airplanes, and no more flying between countries, between cities, take the train, right, take the train. And that is hard to sell, but there was an alternative that can achieve a very similar goal, and that's what's really happening. What is happening is that the, right now, airlines have to offset something like half of the carbon they pollute by buying carbon offsets, right? And as those carbon offsets are getting more expensive than they are, what is happening is that the price of flying becomes more expensive, this is particularly, this is in Europe, we're talking about Europe. As they are forced to buy more carbon offsets, the price of air flight increases. And as that happens, what happens to demand? It goes down. One of the most, one of the most amazing things, one of the most amazing things about the modern world, one of the most amazing things about the last 40 to 50 years, is how cheap flying has become. How accessible it has become to almost everybody in our society. A European vacation, which used to be only for the wealthy, not that long ago, maybe the upper middle class, as of let's say the 1970s, is available almost to everybody today, flying to Disneyland, flying across the country, flying to Asia. You can see that with the, with the sheer number of tourists from relatively poor countries, who are everywhere, everywhere as you travel. There are millions and millions and millions of people traveling by airfare. I think there's something like four billion people who fly. Now, many of that is the same person flying many times like me, but four billion is a lot. If prices don't go off, if prices stay the same, they expect air traffic to go to eight billion in a decade or so. Eight billion. Total number of population of Earth is around eight billion. It means that people are flying, people enjoying seeing the world. It is one of the great, beautiful things about, you know, the modern world in which we live. How cheap things have gotten, right? We're very quick to talk about inflation. We're very quick to talk about, I don't know, stagnation. But one of the things that is hard to really measure and hard to really capture is how cheap things have become. And as a consequence of the cheapness, how they've impacted disproportionately their lives, primarily people who couldn't afford them before. Flying is one of those things. Well, it turns out now that this European Union emissions trading system, Alliance are going to have to buy emission allowances to cover every metric ton of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere of flights, starting and ending in the European economic zone, which include including the UK and Switzerland. They only buy half now. But by 2026, they're going to have to buy double. Prices are really expensive. They're going to go up. The price of carbon emissions offsets has gone up, right? In Europe, there is a market in CO2. You can buy and sell CO2. It's gone up from around 25 euro per metric ton, I guess, of carbon in 2019 to about 100 today. It's gone out four times. So when you pay those really, really high airfares, realize that a big chunk of that is going to carbon offsets. A big chunk of that is a consequence over the hysteria around climate change and the course of government policies to reduce that carbon footprint. Basically, carbon outline, over the next 25 years, companies are going to have to reduce their carbon footprint significantly. It's not only about buying credits, but also by just reducing the use of carbon by law. So they're going to have to invest heavily in improved technology. They're going to have to invest heavily in alternative fuels. They're going to have to invest heavily in the offsets and everything. The total cost of this is something like $820 billion if the industry is going to reach net zero by 2050. Now, there is no $820 billion to do this. That money doesn't exist. This is going to basically squeeze and eliminate. They're talking about just the increase in carbon offsets that the companies have to buy is going to shrink the profits of the major European airlines, particularly the cheap ones, the Ryanair, the EasyJet, the Wiz, Vueling, Eurowings, Transvia. These are the real cheap airlines that make it possible for everybody to travel all over Europe at really, really amazingly low prices. They're going to decrease their profits by 77 percent. 77 percent. What's the outcome of this? Much higher prices. Squeezing out the low-cost carriers. A lot fewer flyers. A lot fewer passengers. An economy in which, again, only the wealthy can travel by air. And just fewer flights. I read a story. I think I read a story that I did a show on this, or I mentioned in the show maybe a year or two ago. France now has eliminated short flights. If you can take a train between two cities, and I can't remember the exact number of hours, if it's below a certain number of hours it'll take you to get from point A to point B, they have banned the use of airplanes from those two points. Europe is serious about this. They're serious about eliminating flying. Whether it's through the pricing mechanism making it so expensive, Miroslav says it's 150 minutes. If the train is 150 minutes or less, it can't fly. Airplanes are grounded, or at least Miroslav thinks it's 150 minutes. Anyway, so no short hop, flying. I mean you're serious about eliminating, basically eliminating flying. And eliminating the ability for people to take planes, to go on vacations, to do business. The consequence of this are horrific to our quality of life, to our standard of living, and to our ability to do business.  That is that a few people, the richest 10%, fly much more than the poor. The poor do one flight a year, and people like me do dozens of flight a year. So they want to introduce a frequent fly attacks. You know how you get frequent flyer points? They want to introduce a frequent flyer attacks to tax people who fly a lot, again to reduce ability to fly. What this represents is a direct, unequivocal attack on the quality of life standard of living of people in the world today, particularly Europeans in this case. I don't think this would fly in the United States. And what are they pushing? They're pushing trains for now, electric trains, where they're going to get all the electricity to run these trains from solar panels and for windmills in England and in Germany and in the Netherlands, you know, where the sun shines all year long, right? So be prepared to be stuck or the other way around to look at this is I've urged you all to travel. I've urged you all to go see the world and I urge you again and I did a whole show on why traveling should be a value to you, that there's great joy and great benefit and great excitement and great great thrill to travel and see the world. Do it soon. Do it soon. Do it before it becomes too expensive. Do it before maybe in the world we're heading towards it becomes impossible. Do it now. Get on a plane. Fly somewhere. Enjoy the freedom that you have now because those freedoms are going to be taken away one way or another. The European Union at least is dedicated to taking them away from you. Thank you for listening or watching the Iran book show. If you'd like to support the show, we make it as easy as possible for you to trade with me. You get value from listening. You get value from watching. Show your appreciation. You can do that by going to iranbookshow.com slash support by going to Patreon, subscribe star locals and just making a appropriate contribution on any one of those, any one of those channels. Also, if you'd like to see the Iran book show grow, please consider sharing our content and of course subscribe. Press that little bell button right down there on YouTube so that you get an announcement when we go live. And for those of you who are already subscribers and those of you who are already supporters of the show, thank you. I very much appreciate it.


On Tuesday, October 27th, 2020, the Ministry of Health and Wellness received confirmation of two new cases of COVID-19. This brings the total number of cases diagnosed in country to date to 65. There are presently 38 active cases isolated and in care. Case number 64 is a 15-year-old female from the Castries District. Case number 65 is a 36-year-old female from the Babineau District. Both of these cases were placed in quarantine while awaiting the results from their tests. Case number 64 was a contact of case number 43. The island's chief medical officer says the national management of COVID-19 cases is now in the containment phase and as such, the Ministry of Health is working toward reducing transmission and containing the disease. Therefore, all positive cases are being admitted to the Respiratory Hospital for treatment and care. However, careful attention is being paid to the strain on bedspace at the Respiratory Hospital. Dr. Sharon Belmont-George explains. As we've indicated before, 80% of persons with COVID-19 are mild to moderate. So the thinking is once we get to a certain number of cases, a certain stage of the outbreak, mild to moderate cases, once they have the capacity for isolation at home, they will be allowed to stay and the priority will be for our more severe and moderate cases who actually need hospital care. To date, we've only had one severe COVID-19 positive patient. Most of our cases have been mild to moderate. So this is a transition that we would make eventually to ensure that the facilities at the Respiratory Hospital are used for those who actually need the clinical support. That was Chief Medical Officer Dr. Sharon Belmont-George.


When I'm not making games and making websites and one thing that it's always floating around the web dev community is New browsers and when they say a new browser they usually mean just a wrapper with a webkit inside and you know It's not really a new browser. It's just a new set of settings You can change and how tabs are distributed But what I wanted to explore is how it would be like to create a new browser from scratch So I'm gonna do a little experiment and see what we can create with cutoff So we have an empty product here. Let's start with user interface, which is our favorite node and Now Let's start with a script, which is going to be as always the main script for this program and Now one of the nodes we want to use for getting signals from a server or sending, you know requests things like that to get a website is denote HTTP request So this is going to handle all the communication between our go-out program and the Website server now that we have our HTTP request I'm gonna add a node which is going to Display some information in the screen And for this I could use just a rich text label Since at the end of the day all websites are just a text document that your browser reads and interprets in a certain way So this is going to be our Okay, and yeah, this should be enough to start Let's go ahead now and start with the code. So we want the program to first Send a signal to a server telling them. I want to see this website To do that we use the HTTP request node HTTP request node and the request function Here if you press control and click on any of this you get the documentation and Here in the request You have all the information you need for it I don't want to go too deep into how a website works, but if you're interested There's plenty of resources. I will link some in the description Let's do for an example the go-out website. So HTTPS equals go.engine.org Okay, so we're gonna ask okay, I want to see the go-out website now to know when this request is ready We can use the signal from the HTTP request the signal which is request completed So this is the signal. We're gonna use to know the page is loaded and we can add that information to our program Let's link it to the control node and it will give us these four arguments the one that we're interested right now is the body Which is the one that you usually see on your browser You know the other ones you need to take them into account especially for instance Most of you might know this one But if you get a free spawns code of 404 means that the page is not found If you get the 501 is maybe like you don't have access to the website So we're gonna ignore this by now Well, you can build different responses like you know the jumping dinosaur in Chrome or funny stuff like that You can handle all that depending on what Response you get from this request for now, which is gonna get the body of the website and I'm going to add it to the rich label there as a text. So let's see. I select the rich text label and I set the text equals to the body of these requests Okay, let's try it out since this function is added on the ready It's gonna run whenever you run the program. So if I test it out, let's see. I Never save the scene. Okay main I'm getting a never the error. It means that instead of a pulled by array. I need to set a string to this So to do that I can transform this Response that we got from the server from the pulled by array to string by doing get string from UTF 8 Which is how the text is being encoded and Right now it should work as expected Yeah, and we see it here. So technically we already have a web browser Kind of we're getting the information from the website. We can see that's text and you know We have all the HTML and the content of the website So now the next step would be to add a browse bar so we can try to open different websites And then go in element by element and adding style to it So for instance this h2 is a title We would want to select all this part and display it as a bigger thing instead of just to text there And that's what the web browsers do they get all this text and they display you a website with style Let's add nav bar and start navigating some other websites We go back to our view here add Container box container horizontal box container is going to host the input line edit This is going to be the website. We are in and let's add a button Base button button is going to be the go Oh Okay, let's add some space for it by adding margin at the top So that way we don't miss any of the content Let's say like 42 now. Let's make this full width top wide We know that the size of this we wanted it to be 42 because that's the room we made Okay, 41. It's okay. It should be fine. And since the box container is bigger than what the elements have Let's add some special properties to the line edit Here in size flag horizontal Set it to expand this will occupy all the space it cans inside the container. So we have now the browser bar So this this line edit will have the default which is the page that we are loading right now It's DTPS go.engine.org And Let's see how it looks Okay, looks fine. Okay, we can scroll the website. We have here it is. Okay Now let's make it work First I'm going to connect the button to the control So this is when you press the go. This will have to trigger as Function like this one. So HTTP request request and We're gonna get the current text that we have on the line edit here. So Our is another container line edit is this node that text So we get the text we have there. So when we press it It will trigger this function and it will update the body. Let's try it out Let's open a Wikipedia.org Let's see we keep here. Okay, let's go Nice, we get the Wikipedia page It looks terrible It's impossible to read like this But have we have the browser bar and the text here so on the next episode I've been going to get the relevant information like for instance getting the title of the page and things like that and add it to the title of the window and Maybe even I will try to make the links work because if we go back to go to the engine We want to go I don't know to a different page. Let's see if we have here a link Let's look for link here. We have a link here Here href equals to another browser another like a path I want to be able to click on links and open them in the web browser and Yeah, so you can see making a browser from scratch is a huge task But as we did anything else you can do it with Godot. You just need to go step by step Thank you my new Patreons Tyler and Peyton. Thanks to you that all this is possible So thank you so so so much for being there and if you want to know anything in particular Just let me know and I will make sure to answer you Okay, bye