Well, I think we'll go ahead and get started. I'd like to welcome everyone to this April 2023 edition of the Extension Agri-Business Sections, Agricultural Market Situation Outlook Webinar Series. You may have missed it, but we actually celebrated our third anniversary last month. This is originally kicked off due to COVID. And I meant to make cupcakes and bring them into the office, but I didn't. But here we are now in April 2023. I'd like to welcome you all again for this edition. We're going to have a similar format but a bit of a different order. We're going to have a series of presentations by Extension Agri-Business Specialists with Q&A at the end. Please use the Q&A tool or the chat tool and we'll get to your questions at the end of the presentations. With that, I'd like to turn it over to Frank Olson who will be kicking us off today. Again, Frank Olson, I'm the crop economist, marketing specialist here with NDSU Extension. Once again, here's my contact information. So if there's something you want to chat about privately or you've had some questions later on, feel free to contact me. I'd be happy to visit. So today I'm going to... We had USDA WASDE report, the World Agricultural Supply Demand Estimates. We had an update in April, a couple of days ago. I do want to give a very brief update of that before we kick into some kind of discussion about planted acreage and in particular kind of weather and planting conditions as we see it today. So with that, next slide. Here's a summary of the pre-report industry estimates. So there's a survey that the major news agencies like Reuters and Bluebergen and Dow Jones do of private analysts to say, what do you expect the USDA numbers to be from these different reports? And so this is for the 2022, 23 ending stocks. So this is old crop inventories. USDA so far has not formally prepared forecasts for the 23, 24 crop year yet. That would be the new crop crop year. They will do that in the May report. So a month from now as we're going through this information, I'll be able to talk a little bit about old crop and the forecast for ending stocks in old crop as well as get some information now about what they expect for new crop. So we're still kind of in this old crop mode. I just want to summarize what went on. So if you look at the blue row at the very top, the average trade estimates, that was the number on average, that was the number that the private analysts and forecasters were expecting to see for US ending stocks. So how much reserve are we gonna have in inventory just before harvest of next year? And so if you compare the blue number to the red number, I usually like to do that because the blue number is the information that's currently in the marketplace because that's the trade was expecting. We're already trading our expectations. When the report comes out, which is the red line, if that number is above or below what we expected it to be, that's usually when we start to see some shock value or some adjustments in pricing. I did highlight the black row, which is the second from the bottom. That is the number that we got last month. So that was February's number and then we have the March number. And I have to change date because it was March 11th. I apologize. So if we compare the blue number to the red, there was an increase in wheat ending stocks. And I guess there wasn't a big shock value to that, but it did put a little bit of a downward pressure or kind of a negative psychology just that we're gonna have a little more inventory than we first expected. Two minor adjustments that USDA made in old crop inventories. First, the amount of wheat imports increased just a small amount, but they also reduced the amount of wheat going into the feed and residual category. So primarily most of that is in feed used for livestock feed. The residual really means the spoilage and wastage that goes into the system. So there's a cut reduction in the amount of wheat that USDA expects to go into that, primarily the feed pile. As a result then our ending stocks increase slightly. They made no changes, none any place within the corn and soybean forecast. So old crop corn and soybean estimates from last month to this month were unchanged. USDA was looking for a slight adjustment of probably a little reduction in the corn side and pretty much flat numbers for soybeans. We got actually got the same for both of those. So again, not a lot of shock value wasn't a lot of surprises, but some tweaks and adjustments in the market's thinking. We were also looking and trying to finalize kind of our expectations for South American production. Now most of the Brazilian soybean harvest is over with now. The first crop corn has been harvested, but second crop corn is being planted. So again, to remind everybody, Brazil has two corn crops, one where they plant and harvest corn and soybeans at the same time, just like we do here in the US. And then there's a second crop of corn that in the northern part of the country when they harvest their soybeans they come back and plant corn as a second crop. So you can do kind of continuous cropping in some areas. So there's still kind of some forecasting error if you will in the corn production numbers for Brazil, but the soybean numbers, both the private analysts as well as USDA is kind of narrowing in and honing on some very common numbers at about 153 to 154 million metric ton of production. So we knew this was gonna be a big soybean crop coming out of Brazil. The expectation was that that's been coming for a while. It's just now being confirmed as we start to tally up some of the harvest totals running as the combines run over the fields. For corn out of Brazil, again, there's some actual numbers embedded in that as well as some forecasted numbers. Current basically unchanged from USDA's forecast standpoint, the trade wasn't expecting large changes there because the second crop corn, the corn that's being planted right now accounts for about 75% of the total production. So the largest portion of the Brazilian corn crop is yet to be harvested. So we've got some information but not complete information about that. Shifting over to Argentina, again, we're comparing the blue line on top with the red line on the bottom. We've known for a while Argentina has had some very, very severe drought conditions. This is the third continuous year of drought they had. We knew that the yields were gonna be reduced. The private forecasters had been reducing their expectations or their forecast for both corn and soybean yields. And actually USDA is just now kind of catching up to some of the forecast numbers that we see out of the private industry. And so the USDA was, excuse me, private analysts were expecting about 37 million metric ton of corn production. That's really what we got out of USDA. The private analysts were expecting a reduction in soybean production. The production was a little bit larger than what the industry had expected. But again, that 27 million metric ton is well within the range of what the private analysts are forecasting on their own, doing their own math, if you will. So not a lot of shock value but basically confirmation that, yes, that Argentine crop is gonna be very small and in particular for the soybean production which has an impact on not only soybean prices obviously but also on soybean oil and soybean meal prices globally. On at the end of March, March 31 we did get the perspective plantings report. So this is the first estimate. It's a survey based estimate of farmers on what do you expect to plant in 2023? And I know there's already been a lot of discussion about this. I just wanted to give you the numbers for your own reference points. A couple comments and I wanna kick into what does this mean for North Dakota? So again, the blue line on top is what the average trade estimate, what the average trade guess was.  And of course the red numbers on the bottom was what the survey indicated. Now we always know that this is the surveys taken in kind of the first couple of weeks of March and it takes about a week to compile everything and put it together and then it's released at the end of the month. So we know that there can be some changes and adjustments and shifts. The next major survey for acreage for actual planted acreage will come in June. So they survey farmers before they seed saying what are you expecting to do? They come back with a follow-up survey in June to say what did you actually seed and we make those comparisons. So let's just gonna again compare the blue numbers to the red numbers. The corn acreage was we were expecting an increase. The increase is a little bit larger than what the average trade guess was. But again, well within the range, well within kind of what we would consider that normal range of expectations. For soybeans, most analysts on average are looking for a slight increase in soybean acreage. In reality we got basically the same numbers that we had last year. So flat plantings for soybeans relative to last year but again down a bit from what the trade was expecting. The all wheat number is kind of interesting. Now that is all wheat. So it's all both winter wheat and spring wheat. The total number, it was about a million acres higher. So when you look at the blue versus the red about a million acre increase from what the trade was expecting which again puts them a little bit of downward pressure on the wheat number. Kind of the surprise to everybody, at least from my sense was we actually had an increase in the winter wheat seedings. So what the trade was expecting, that number that 36 million acres excuse me is very close to what this survey, the winter wheat seedings report survey and that we got in January said. And it looks as though there was a little bit more winter wheat actually seeded than what the original January survey had said. Now for spring wheat and Durham which is really what we're concerned about here in North Dakota, the trade was expecting a slight increase in spring wheat acreage from last year. We actually had a decrease. And again, not major change, but enough of a decrease that the markets did perk up in particular spring wheat market looked at and said, well, wait a minute, we can't be too aggressive in letting prices drift lower. And then for the Durham numbers again the trade was expecting basically flat to a slight increase. We actually had a little bit larger increase in Durham at least the prospective plantings part of it than what the trade was expecting. So what does this mean now for North Dakota? So I put this kind of in historical context. I looked at for 2021, 2022, those are actual seeded acreage. So those are actual acres reported. The 2023 on the far right hand side is what's came out of the prospective plantings report just for North Dakota. And I picked the top six crops from an acreage standpoint. So the green bar is soybeans, the blue bars is spring wheat, the gold bars corn, the black bars canola, the brown bar is dark brown is Durham, and then the purple is sunflower. Now the sunflower would be all sunflower, both confection and oil seed. So obviously our acreage and the planted acreage is up from last year from 2022, which is not a big surprise, given the fact that we had quite a bit of prevent plant last year. So I did want to include 2021 two years ago as another reference point for people to say, well, what do we think is going to happen to acreage within the state? Yes, if you compare to last year only, it's going to be a little bit deceiving because of prevent plant, but back in 2021 we had almost very little, I'll show you this in a minute, almost zero prevent plant in the States. We had dry enough planting season that we were able to get everything seeded. So we're kind of in between the 21 and 22 numbers. So when we look at planted acreage for each of the major crops, soybean acreage is up from last year, but down from the higher number we saw in 2021. Same with corn. The corn number was up pretty significantly from last year, but recognizing again, most of the prevent plant acres we had in North Dakota were in the Southeast corner of the state, which is very heavily corned soybean country anyway. For spring wheat, the blue bars, pretty similar to last year, but again, up from, excuse me, down a bit from 2021. And then when we look at canola, canola acres have been slowly growing. Again, part of it is the relative profitability in canola and the higher canola prices we've seen. Dermacage within the state, again, up a little bit from two years ago, up a bit, quite a bit from last year's numbers, but again, some of that was prevent plant. So what does this mean? I want to put this kind of back in context for us. I want to be very cautious as I've been talking to enough farmers and industry people in the state that I think a few of them are getting this backyard syndrome. So I want to be really careful that we don't fall into backyard syndrome and saying, why isn't the markets responding to the problems we're having up here? Doesn't everybody know we have a lot of snowpack left? We do, I mean, the market recognizes that, but to be realistic, we're about the only ones left in the country that has snowpack. I hate to say that, but that's the reality. So this is out of the National Weather Service. This is the snow depth as of yesterday. So these are numbers and basically satellite imagery it was taking yesterday. So the blue, it would be the depth of the snow. And notice that, yes, in the Rocky mountain area on the far left hand side in purple, they've had some very significant snowfall and good skiing conditions, but when we look into the agricultural producing regions in the central plains as well as the Midwest, we're about the only ones that have snowpack left. So yes, we have snow to melt. We're gonna have some flooding issues this spring. We may have slightly delayed planting. We'll have to wait to see what happens with rainfall, whether we actually have concerns about a lot of prevent plant. So the market recognizes we're behind, but please understand, we're about the only place in the country that's really behind, at least as of right now. So when we look at the snow depth, which just shows the colors and where the snow located as of yesterday, when we look at soil moisture conditions. So again, this would be as of the 10th. So this would be April 10th. It's about not quite a week old. This is an estimate of the soil moisture in the top meter of soil, about the top three feet of soil. Okay, and so how much from a volume standpoint, how saturated is that top three feet or the top, basically that root zone? Now notice up in North Dakota, Minnesota, where you saw the snowpack, they're really not measuring anything because the ground is still frozen. But you get outside of our area and you start looking at what's happening within not only the Great Plain States, but also then what's happening within the Corn Belt. And you start to see some drastic changes. So Iowa and Nebraska is a bit on the dry side. Iowa has been on the dry side, but they've been getting some rains recently. Central and Northern Illinois is in pretty good shape, but you get into Southern Illinois, Missouri, and in particular down into that, those Mississippi River Valley States, like Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana, that's where those big rain showers have been coming. So we've got part of the Eastern Corn Belt like Southern Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Kentucky that have quite a bit of soil moisture right now. They're a bit on the wet side. And you see that really stark line that goes from the green into the oranges and the reds by the time you get into Nebraska, Central in particular, Western Kansas, the Panhandle of Oklahoma and Texas, all of a sudden those areas get very, very dry. And obviously that is a concern now for the winter wheat market on what is the crop condition of the winter wheat crop as it starts to break dormancy, which is something I've been talking about pretty much all winter long. So we do have this kind of stark contrast I wanted to show because in the Eastern Corn Belt, there are some areas that are in pretty good shape. And I think we'll have some pretty rapid planting progress once the soil temperatures warm up a little bit, but we do have part in particular of the Eastern Corn Belt that's still pretty wet right now. And we'll have to wait to see if there's any planting delays from the Eastern Corn Belt. And again, all eyes are on, from the wheat market anyway, all eyes are on Kansas and Oklahoma at this stage for the winter wheat and winter wheat condition ratings. I just wanted to zoom in really quick on the snow depth just to give you an idea. This is just the North Dakota picture. We can also convert that into a water equivalent. So if you look at where we are right now, those pinks and purples, that's anywhere from like six to nine inches of moisture. So there are some areas of the region of the valley that have not only significant snowpack left, but also there's quite a bit of water content in some of that. So let's hope that given the dry conditions we had last fall, then and hopefully not too much of a frost layer that some of that goes back into the soil. This is my last slide and then I'll hand things over to Tim. I did want to give you some historical reference points for prevented planting acres. So these are based on FSA data on how many acres were actually recorded as prevented planting. Last year we had about just under 2.4 million acres in North Dakota. But you can see that we have these great big swings. If we have a good spring or a drier spring, we pretty much get everything seeded. It's goes wet years like 2020. And I went back to 2011, which is really one of our worst prevent plant years at about 5.3 million acres. So you tend to see either we get a lot of acres planted or we tend to have big planting problems because we're in the prairie pothole region and our potholes fill up and we have to go around all those potholes. So what are we gonna have for prevent plant in 2023? Obviously nobody knows right now but I'm getting a lot of questions from the press and saying, well, you know, are you gonna have another year like last year? What does this look like? My personal opinion is I think we will likely have some prevent plant acres, but I don't expect it to be as bad as 2022, just my personal opinion. So with that, I am finished. I will stop sharing my screen, stop sharing. And I'll let Mr. Tim Petrie take over. Good afternoon, everybody. Great to be with you. Tim Petrie extension, livestock marketing specialist. Well, Buzz, of course, this week, if you've been listening to livestock media is that we hit record high prices on fed cattle and probably not a big surprise. I think it was two sessions ago or something I spent my entire session talking about the chance of historically or record high prices this year. And I said very likely that we would do that this year on fed cattle, but not on feeder cattle. So it came to fruition. Last week, you see on the chart there, I won't go through all those past year's lines because I've done that before with you, but the red line up there is this year. So last week we had 173, 10 average on the live weight fed cattle prices at all time record high. The previous record high was back end of November, 2014, when it was 171.38. So we surpassed that by a couple of dollars.  We probably will be up $5 or more this week. Maybe we traded here in the North in some in Iowa and South Dakota at 184 this week. And so probably I'm thinking the average might be around 179 or so this week. And so a really, really good demand for fed cattle, demand for beef is good. We're approaching the barbecue season. The beef cut out, what packers sell for been just going up day by day. It's $300 today, the highest that it's been since back in 2021 when all the restaurants were opening up and their freezers were empty. So they had to come in and get a lot of beef to fill their freezers and so on. And that isn't the case now. This is, we're preparing for the grilling season and beef is moving well. And so record high prices and we expect that to continue. The 2014 last yearly record was 153, 84. And so unless something drastic happens, we're certainly, we just beat a week daily and weekly last week and we'll continue. And there's the red are the futures there throughout the rest of the year. And again, by December up there to 172 and above 160. So it looks like we will set a record high. So that's supportive to feeder cattle. For sure the two biggest things that affect feeder cattle prices are fed cattle prices, particularly those distant futures when the feeder cattle will finish and then also corn prices. And so Frane gave us some good news air a couple million more acres of corn. And so, as he said, not much in the ground yet and we'll have to see how the corn bill does. And that's what causes volatility in feeder cattle but more corn acres and possibly some easing on corn prices would even be more supportive to feeder cattle. And on the futures the same way this is the monthly live cattle futures and our previous record was back there and then to 2014 as we've talked about before we were up there at about 170. And so we've surpassed the highest ever futures this week and actually today for a while April futures were as high as 177 they did back off here. The last I looked they were about 176. So records on the futures market as well. So everybody's, you know, I just had a meeting yesterday and somebody and I says, how high can prices go? And obviously they can go higher and more on that in a minute but the highest prices are likely going to occur when we get into rapid herd rebuilding. And again, I've talked about this before we've taken the US beef cow herd down four straight years or beef cow herd is now lower than it was in 2014 when we had record high prices. And the highest prices are likely to occur when everybody has rain and then can rebuild their herds and so heifer calves are held back and beef cow slaughter goes down and beef production goes down and that supports prices. So, you know, Frayne talked about weather on the upper left hand corner is today's drought monitor and you see it's still dry through cattle country where the cows are go down to the bottom left the dark greener where our cows are and you know, the biggest state is Texas for cows and then it goes right up Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas and on up North Dakota is the ninth largest and so right in the midsection is where the cows are and that's where the drought is but we have seen a lot of improvement if we go to the upper right hand corner here's the drought monitor just last October 25th and you see a lot of the entire western part of the US was dry California very dry dry up through the center where the cattle are even Tennessee and Kentucky have a lot of cows and as Frayne said, they're really, really wet there now and so go back to where we were on the left hand side a lot of improvement in the drought monitor but right through the heart of beef cow country it's still kind of dry and so that would hamper some herd rebuilding on the bottom way on the bottom then back in October 25th circled in purple, you know, you know over 75% of the beef cow herd was in drought back then that's why we had that big liquidation last year but now we've brought that down go to the left hand side about 41% of our cattle in drought and so there's some improvement and there is interest in herd rebuilding in the areas that have moisture we'll just go ahead predictions weather predictions are kind of like corn and cattle predictions, they can be wrong but the seasonal drought outlook looks better. Again, this comes out from the National Weather Service and so you see down in Texas, Western Oklahoma, Western Kansas, that dark brown is where drought persists but in North Dakota that lime green is where drought removal is likely so we get rid of it up here into South Dakota get into Nebraska, it says drought remains but there is improvement so there's a chance at least and we're hopeful that there is improvement and if that does come to fruition there will certainly be interest in herd rebuilding. So here's our beef cow slaughter and the purple line is just that 2017 to 21 average the blue line last year, the drought as you saw in the drought monitor a beef cow slaughter was up 33% over the average last year we killed the most cows we'd kill for many years but you already see on the red line there this year as it's raining and raining in the east and California is about drought free and some improvement that we've brought to beef cow slaughter down here the last couple of weeks the closer than average and so an indication that maybe we will start rebuilding the herds. Here's last week's market report for heifers in North Dakota and so we're down there towards the middle of the page when we're getting into those heavyweight heifers and you see where it says replace the USDA market reporter is saying these are replacement quality heifers bringing a premium over their market counterparts and in some cases close to steer prices so some people are optimistic there and down towards the bottom there there was some 834 replacement heifers at 185 bringing $1,500 a lot of replacement heifers bringing $1,400 to $1,600 and so they're in demand and just kind of an indication that people think there are better times ahead. I circled that 192.83 that was some 700 pound replacements going back to that question that I had yesterday of how high prices can go and Fray knows the answer to this but I could ask the rest of you and I'm wondering if you would be in the ballpark and actually it surprised me a little bit but I went back in my archives at a PowerPoint back years ago and I haven't back many years but this is my January 7th, 2015 PowerPoint that I showed to a meeting then and down there you see 700 pound replacements were $290 so 192 there and 290 they're $100, 108 more back in 2015 so how high can they go? Well, they went that high last year or the last cyclical low back there in 2014 and that's so they obviously could do that again and actually they were paying 2,000 for them because bread heifers at that time were bringing 2,900 or 3,000 and 1,000 more than this so we gotta get some more rain and it's gotta come through and here's been getting questions about what bread heifers are bringing and stock cows bringing so there aren't very many being sold right now and actually the markets wanna back off because these heavy, heavy pregnant cows they don't want them to come into the auctions because they don't want them calving in there and hauling them the last couple, three weeks of pregnancy but here's some 155 bread heifers on the lower right there at Stockman's back on March 30th, average 2,000 and a young stock cows on the upper left hand 20, about $2,400 so that's what they're bringing now so anyway, certainly like I said the record high fed cattle prices and it looks like they're gonna keep going supportive to feeder cattle here's the yearling 800 pound prices and we got them up to $2,215 the highest two that they aren't at record high quite at record high levels a record high for 800 pounders in North Dakota in 2014 was $208 for the year and so we started off down there at 175 and so we could even do a record on these it all depends on what happens the futures at the end of the year there the feeder cattle futures are up there 230 or so October today at 232 to 25 about and so if that comes to fruition we would at least be close to record but a lot of optimism there on the feeder cattle side following the record high fed cattle and then a couple million more acres of corn so that's my spiel I don't know if Brian's ready or not or Dave but I'll stop sharing and turn it over to the others. Yep, I'm good to go. Okay. Okay, real quick today I'm just gonna cover some of the information that came out recently on employment on inflation and interest rates and then I quick discussion on land values and cash rents from a report that we completed about a week or so ago. So this is what came out the March inflation report came out most of it this week from what took place in March and most of the inflation numbers pretty much all of them whether it was the core inflation which was a bit higher but lower than they thought it would be as well as headline inflation which is all items came in lower and it came in at 5% which is the lowest in a couple of years actually as far as on an annual basis, okay that prices didn't go up 5% in March alone but when you annualize the inflation rate 5% is the lowest since I believe around May of 2021 so almost two years since inflation has been that low on a year over year basis core inflation was actually a bit higher and part of that has to do with what's being included in there and the main thing was energy was down energy costs and since energy is not included in core inflation which is all items less food and energy so then you have core inflation slightly higher and then the other thing was that wholesale inflation was down so that's stuck above the consumer level those would be products that are used in terms of producing perhaps other products those were down, that was down as well down to 2.7% on an annualized basis but while inflation was a bit lower than the industry thought it was going to be it was still quite a bit higher than the Fed's target of 2% for all items you know at 5% it's still more than double what the Fed wants to see and the other part about it was hiring has slowed down some but the unemployment rate stays really low right now in the US right there at 3.5% even though the jobs report was down and basically indicating a really tight labor market which is and a lot of times when the Fed's taking these actions of hiking rates unemployment tends to go up businesses can't expand as much and hire as much so that also helps curb prices because if people are getting laid off or unemployed they wind up not buying as much or not being as much of a consumer as they were before and the fact that that's not happening has also made the Fed's job harder as far as combating the inflation which they've been doing. So the next Federal Reserve meeting is in May is this month coming up soon and right now the majority so 65% or about two thirds of the market thinks the Fed's gonna hike rates another quarter of a point so 25 basis points which would take it from about five to five and a quarter percent on the federal funds rate and then of course 35% approximately basically think that there's gonna be no change that that isn't gonna change over and while things have slowed down one of the things that you've also gotta keep in mind is that we've had some months where inflation numbers had gone down and then hike ticked up the next month and 5% is still quite a ways from 2% and so when you look at it from the Federal Reserve's perspective they understand that you've gotta keep these rates high enough for long enough that people change their behaviors on buying not just hike rates so that and this is one of the challenges they also run into if you think about it this way suppose everyone imagines that rates are going to go down dramatically in the next three months so you may stop inflation for a couple of months as people halt buying bigger ticket items that you finance like cars, homes, those kind of things and then as soon as rates go back down the buying picks up dramatically again and we wind up right back in the same boat especially since folks haven't been laid off or anything in the employment situation stays where it is so my opinion is the folks who think that rates are going to go back down in the very near future are probably wrong in the sense because of the fact that if they know that if that happens and the higher interest rates are very short lived you don't get a behavioral change and all of a sudden prices start climbing again pretty dramatically and so based on historically if you look at the federal funds rate right now it's at about 5% the last time it was this high wasn't that long ago really it was about 06 where it was right around five, five and a half percent was the last time it was as high as it is right now so not all that long ago and if you look at most of the 90s and early 2000s it was closer to 6% or slightly above and it was that way for more than a decade now I'm not sure half a decade I'm not showing the 80s when it was much higher than that there were a lot of things going on then and so it's probably not all that applicable to this situation but just to be advised that the federal funds rate it's not all that long ago that it was higher than it is now and in the 90s the late 90s and early 2000s it stayed that way for most of a decade I mean from essentially 1995 to 2001 so how long can rates stay there? Well, they can stay there for five, six, seven years if need be so where does the federal funds rate right now put current mortgage rates? Again, they're not tied one for one and you can actually see it in this graph the federal funds rate's always lower than the mortgage rate but just because the federal funds rate's gone up doesn't mean necessarily the mortgage rate goes down part of that has to do with expectations case in point, the federal funds rate was lower in November than it is right now and yet rates were over 7% then and now they're six and a quarter so like I said, there's some market factors and behavioral things that go on in lending that dictate some of this but they are heavily related the federal funds rate and the overall mortgage rate but it doesn't, I mean the Fed can increase rates for instance, 1% over the next three months and rates don't change at all but eventually they keep hiking them and leave them there for long enough and those rates do come up so my kind of expectation is if I just go back to this I agree with the majority in the market who thinks that the 65% who thinks it's gonna be a quarter of a percentage point increase or 0.25 that's kind of where I'm leading to I don't think it'll be a half especially with the numbers coming out as they are but I do think that they're gonna wanna keep the pressure on to see these numbers continue to come down and as a result, they're gonna have to do some kind of an increase I believe it's gonna be a quarter of a percent also so then the next thing I wanted to shift over to real quick was land values and we put out these reports every spring using the Department of Trust land surveys and then we put them into these NDSU regions there are extension regions that we put out the budgets for and we put them together and then we look at what land values have done we do it for pasture and cropland values and rents so last year was from 22 to 23 was one of the biggest increases or the biggest increase basically in over a decade in North Dakota as land values statewide on average were up 13 and a half percent obviously the South Valley is tends to be the most costly land in the state it's averaging 5,500 bucks an acre Southeast starting at close to $4,000 North Valley closer to 3,500 and then as you move west of course land tends to get less and less expensive with the Northwest being the least expensive at $1,400 an acre Rents on the cropland side as well were up almost 7%, 6.8% statewide this is quite a bit higher than the increase last year which was about three and on the land value side it was almost 11 last year so as land values were increased even more in the most recent year as did rents their percentage increased more than doubling again with the most costly rents being in the Southeast over the South Red River Valley Southeast region and then the least expensive in the Northwest obviously a lot of that has to do with yields precipitation and those kind of things and like I said we do it for pasture land values as well and rents statewide pasture land values were up 17.1% so even more than cropland values now you'll notice the grayed out areas on this map there just aren't enough pasture land transactions in these three regions the Northeast, North Valley and South Valley that we can't really get a meaningful average out of it you might only have five or six or seven observations and then one sale throws the average just completely skews it so as a result we just show these but overall statewide pasture land prices of 17.1% quite a bit more than last year and then if we looked at rents those are up as well 7.1% so pretty big jump in those and in a way it's not surprising pasture land values do tend to get pulled up with cropland prices but the other thing is with commodity prices high it's more than just a loose affiliation as well if you think about it this way why do cropland prices tend to rise they tend to rise in scenarios when commodity prices are high so if commodity prices are high driving up cropland prices well then that means cattle feed is also expensive because of high commodity prices what's the alternative to some one alternative to feed is grass well then if folks are saying well feed prices are high therefore I'm gonna go look for more grass it drives up pasture land prices so there's a relationship there that tends to happen too as commodity prices stay high it can drive up pasture land values as folks look for alternatives to feeding grains or anything like that and one alternative is course grass so then if we look at the average okay the state average from 2012 to the most recent 2023 it was pretty flat so increases in 2012, 2013 and 2014 and then from 2014 on all the way till 2021 that is a pretty sideways trend in fact even declining slightly but the last couple of years we've seen a big upswing in cropland prices and then cropland cash rents I mean that's a sideways of a trend as you'll see going from 2013 all the way to 2022 basically hanging out just below or slightly above $70 an acre statewide on average but then and last year had a modest increase and then or a year before that would have been 21 to 22 a modest increase of about 3% and then last year closer to seven so more than double the increase rate going up here and you see we're kind of approaching $80 an acre more like 75, 76 on the cash rents side so bottom line pretty big increase in land prices and a sizable increase in cash rents but not near as much as land values and so here's the interesting thing to think about when it comes to what's happened with land prices and there's a lot of statements and sentences on this slide, I realized that but it's something to kind of wrap our heads around here if you've all heard of the cap rates on farmland which is essentially just the rent the cash rent divided by the market value all at a capitalization rate or cap rate and when I do the calculation I don't include property taxes a lot of times I know it's done with by some folks but I stay consistent I either you either always included or never included I never include it and typically that cap rate on farmland so the cash rent divided by the market value is 100 basis points below the prevailing prime mortgage rate on a 30 year that kind of tends to be the case so the cap rate for 2023 was around 2.7% so in other words cash rent divided by the 2023 cash rent state average divided by the 2023 state average land price was 2.7% not accounting for taxes the current mortgage rate for prime borrowers is around 6.3% I showed a slide not that long ago that just showed it and then the other thing yields on corporate bonds like AAA bonds and beat well the highest the lowest risk is 4.3% I just pulled that this morning the yield on B, BAA bonds is five point let's call it five and a half percent from January 2020 to January of 2022 AAA bonds were between two and two and a half percent why do I bring that up?  Well, it kind of reflects rates of returns for other investments that folks could make would be considered safe investments and a lot of times these AAA bond yields and interest rates and all these things are tied in together in terms of looking at investment opportunities and how much is your money working for you and what kind of rate of return are you seeing? Where right now at this moment, you would get nearly double the rate of return on just buying a bond that's gonna pay you a yearly interest rate versus farmland which is like 2.7% and it's been going down and if land values continue to rise at the rate that they have and that rent stays as low or doesn't accelerate as fast as land prices do this cap rate continues to fall and cap rates had been hanging out at 3% or but interest rates had been low during that period of time too for a long time since essentially the financial crisis they'd stayed pretty low and cap rates that relationship of 100 basis points below kind of stayed in there. Well, now that interest rates are 6.25% I think they're gonna be at least staying there for a while maybe a year or two who knows whatever it takes to get folks to change their behavior and as I showed before federal funds rates can stable well above 5% for a long time and so what would it take to get a cap rate from 2.7% to 5.4? And I just used seven years for this example rents would need to increase 10.4% per year with no change in land value at all. So land values would have to be flat rents would have to go up 10.5% essentially every single year for the next seven years in order to double it without cutting the legs out from under land prices or seeing just a massive increase in cash rents in one year. And so I just, I like to, I put that in there for folks to think about because when we're talking about new land purchases or you're looking at a rent versus purchase decision I would much rather rent and I'm only paying 2.7% of the asset value than buy it and that's essentially the rate of return I'm paying myself is 2.7% and buying it and it interest rates at 6.5% I certainly don't want to borrow money at 6.5% and see a 2.5% rate of return that's tough, it's tough to square that circle even when you account for the fact that you're accumulating some equity and land prices can go up, they also might not. I mean, I just showed a, we go back here they also might not go up or they might stay about the same and then if you account for inflation it's an effective decline but we look here from 2014 all the way to 2021 pretty much no change in state average. So that can, that period can happen too it's tough, if you're borrowing at 6.5% and seeing a 2.5% to 3% rate of return or something like that. So that's kind of all I wanted to point out land prices are big, North Dakota's not unique they're up in other states as well Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, Minnesota, et cetera, et cetera and so these are just things to think about and when we're talking about land prices and outside investments I wanted to just specifically show some options that somebody would have with where money could be parked and seeing a pretty as close to a guaranteed rate of return as you're gonna get on these AAA bonds and yet and where farmland rates return basically set themselves. So I'm going to stop sharing and I believe and I am now going to turn this over to Dave Ripplinger. So thank you very much. Great, thanks Brian. Yeah, I just wanted to make a couple of comments that I've been getting some questions including earlier this week about federal government's involvement in carbon markets climate-smart agriculture, if you want to call it that all of these different ways that agriculture might play a role in either reducing emissions or capturing carbon in the soil. And really one of the biggest ways it's come about, I know I've talked about before is the Inflation Reduction Act which was passed last August provided a substantial amount of funding for this would be a new program within USDA for climate-smart agriculture in addition to other large sums across a variety of different agencies related to climate. But within this space within USDA and agriculture what the IRA has really done is provided significant funding which is now being rolled out through USDA NRCS. And again, just background, climate-smart egg is very much a new term although it's being used quite regularly in a variety of circles including in egg research as well as these carbon markets and the like. And really you're looking at a practice that does one of two things if not both and that's either reducing greenhouse gas emissions from proper livestock production or forestry or increasing the amount of carbon that's sequestered in the soil. What we've learned in the last few months which was I think pretty obvious was that NRCS was going to administer these new funds and then what we've learned more recently and so they're gonna do it through existing programs which most of us are familiar with at least a few of the acronyms. One of the things that's come across to quite clearly as these programs develop and we're very much in the early stages of what climate-smart egg will look like in terms of federal funding. There really is this expectation that the impacts are quantifiable which is something that the private sector is wrestling with as well. I do have a slide that American Farm Bureau put together but I think it's really helpful and it illustrates that increase in funding from the IRA. And again, if you see in the previous slide to this one, we're not on to 18.05 billion NRCS is gonna do some research. They also need funds for administering the program as well as doing some additional work to look at ways to verify data. But the one thing you can get across all four of these charts and for each one of them it's the authorized amount either in the farm bill which would be the blue number, the baseline or what we now have with the IRA. And for almost all of those which you see is that baseline number being flat in the next four years according to the baseline, but with the IRA dramatic increase. So we can start in the upper left-hand corner with the conservation stewardship program where the baseline was a billion dollars in each of the next four years. But above that, beyond that, we see an additional 3.25 billion dollars because of the IRA. Similarly for Equip, although the numbers are bigger an additional 8.45 billion dollars. The conservation, regional conservation partnership program a dramatic increase in funding. Their baseline was 0.3 or $300 million a year almost increasing almost 10 fold by 2026. And then also the agricultural conservation easement program. All four of those are seen as different legs of rolling out climate smart A in USDA. What we've seen NRCS is really, I think, been working hard to get a hold of this, Congress passes the law signed by the president and then it really has to be administered through existing channels. And one of the things NRCS is trying to do is figure out how they can do their best very quickly. Again, because the fiscal year for 2023 is now almost halfway, it's halfway over and they have this money to roll out. NRCS had a request for comments for public input in November asking a few questions about how they should address a variety of topics related to climate smart ag and administering these programs. And we haven't seen too much in terms of how that'll like fully be rolled out or NRCS is gonna deal with things but we do know based in part by announcements by the administration in February that they're going to use existing programs. So those ones that we just talked about and the practices specifically are primarily existing practices that have long been funded within each of those programs, but essentially check mark as having tangible climate benefits where there is research that supports some sort of climate benefit to some extent. So those are listed, NRCS has those available. We've also identified a much shorter list of provisional practices where you can receive funding but right now the evidence isn't overwhelming that there are significant climate benefits and that at a future date if those benefits don't materialize they may end up stopping funding those types of practices. Again, but for right now those IRA funds are gonna support any of those practices. The way that the program in some respects is being rolled out is they're really just topping off these programs that have been oversubscribed for the most part in recent years but those additional funds must be allocated to these climate smart practices that have been identified either existing practices or provisional practices. Really basic, farmers on the line if you're gonna talk to farmers about this the very first thing to do is go talk to your local NRCS office, you know given a variety of talks where I touched on this a bit and occasionally there are NRCS staff in the room and they're very much ready to have those conversations to help farmers apply for these funds. As you can see in terms of the increased allocations you know there's a lot of work opportunity things that can be done with these funds but it needs to go through this process. And so that's there's nothing really changed here and again that's one of the nice things about this rollout within NRCS within these existing programs. It's just more money with some practices identified as being eligible. We don't, there's no real new hoops created quite yet although we're almost certainly gonna get there. Where we're going to go or where NRCS wants to go and you could see this from that request for public information they wanna develop a formal system to track emissions reductions and sequestration and there's this acronym, this MMRV that's being used quite a bit. So measuring, monitoring, recording and verifying emissions or sequestration. And that again that's something that the private sector is also working with. NRCS just wants something for themselves which might be the same as what the private sector works that make it defensible. Again we're gonna see billions of dollars in outlays to these programs. They wanna make sure that they're put to use and that there's a quantifiable demonstration of the positive benefits of it. And this kind of continues a lot of what we've seen from the federal government in the last year to 18 months. They really wanna leverage public-private partnership. So NRCS, the federal government is bringing money to the table. But this is really in many respects meant to be paired with other funds be they carbon offset contracts, other payments for ecosystem services, other practices that are adopted within this bigger space that's starting to emerge with regard to climate smart ag and even beyond that just other benefits that these practices can provide. NRCS also really wants to identify ways that they can maximize the benefits from these funds. In general, kind of basically you'd be somewhat critical and say they're just putting more money into these practices not really identifying those which have the most bang for their buck. Just in terms of practices or which applications might have more benefits than other applications. For example, that same no-till practice in a given county in North Lakota versus somewhere in a Corn Belt state to actually identify if they're gonna give $5 to only one of those acres where are they gonna get more of those benefits from? A lot of work would have to be done to build that program out. They're also looking at ways that they can be more effective. How can they streamline their processes? Which is really just building on ongoing quality activities within NRCS but with these additional funds with the importance of climate it kind of continues to emphasize getting folks to participate and they do make no two of groups who've traditionally been less likely to participate in these programs. And then finally, they also want to identify ways to provide additional technical assistance and outreach. This might be done in part by extension. There's also a term called trusted egg advisors. And again, even within NRCS if you're familiar with some of those programs there's funding available to support some of those activities. And again, they're just trying to figure out the best way to do that with respect to these climate smart egg practices. And then the last thing actually just added this after we were visiting before the webinar started because it is that time of year why are gas prices rising? Kind of first and foremost before you even realize what's going on you can look at the calendar. It's a little bit early but there is seasonality in gas prices as we transition to the summer driving season. And we're actually a bit early in that but there's a few things that's happened. As first is that we see a number of refineries shut down for a short period of time and to transition to summer blends which are required in many markets in the country and those blends. So you have a shutdown so you have less supply going out and these blends are more expensive which leads to higher summer gas prices. We also see a notable increase in gasoline use in the summer. And that's kind of just a standard thing. More specific to 2023 and what's going on there's really kind of two key drivers the one that's gotten the most news recently is OPEC has agreed to reduce supplies going forward. They want to see higher oil prices to meet the needs of their nation members. And then finally too, we have a very strong economy. It's exactly right where we have a lot of parts of the economy that are struggling. There's likelihood of recession, those types of things, all that discussion but in general we do have a relatively strong economy and we almost certainly have many households that have extremely solid income streams with no hesitation, not only to drive their vehicle but to maybe travel more. We've seen significant increase in household travel expenditures recently. And I'd also go back to Brian's comment about those energy prices declining. Part of that was gasoline which is part of that bundle that the Bureau of Labor Statistics has. The big one is really natural gas. What we saw this winter, primarily in Europe they were significantly short on natural gas with the war in Ukraine and the reduction in imports from Russia. They had an extremely mild winter we're now through that. And we made it past that time there's also greater confidence going forward that we'll be able to weather those types of situations. And that has led to a significant reduction in natural gas prices. And of course we're now moving to a part of the year where natural gas purchases by households are exceptional but that was much of that driver. Now what we might end up seeing as we go into May and June is an increase in those household energy prices. And another thing to note too as shown by the chart from AAA, prices are rising but they're still substantially less than they were a year ago. Based on season now we'd expect them to rise into June but there's a number of things I can go and the one wild card in this is if, when and how severe recession strikes and exactly how the motoring public decides to respond. And that'll be something we'll only see with the passage of time. Those were my comments and that completes the prepared remarks of our presenters for the day. At this time we're happy to entertain any questions you might have. Again, you can use the Q and A or the chat tool and we'll gladly respond in the time we have remaining. I'd also note that this is a monthly webinar and we will be back next month, a little bit later in the month, on May the 18th to talk about the May WASDE and other market situations, things that are gonna rise and be timely at that time. But with that, the floor is open and I'd also ask the presenters if they have any other comments or questions or things that they had come to mind when they were speaking or hearing the other presenters talk. And really, so you guys all know that's just a way for us to stall so you can ask questions. We'd really like to have questions from you. There is a chat there asking if these PowerPoint slides are available and this is taped with the slides but can they download the slides or would we have to send them separate? Yeah, so if the presenters wanna send them to me I can compile them and have them uploaded. And typically what we do, I mean, if anyone wants to email me I can send directly to you but typically what I do is I will just refer back to that website again because that will give them access to the presentation itself and then in this case to the slides. Thanks Tim. And I think this is probably a question for Frayn and I think we've already covered this. Will there be a lot of PP acres in North Dakota this year? I, yeah, and I did address that a little bit in my talk. My personal belief is that it won't be as big as last year. I think we, you know, there was a couple of things last year we went into the fall with a lot more rainfall. We did have obviously heavy snowfall not as much as from the snow stand point is this year but we also had a lot of spring rains. Now the, this year in contrast we went into the fall very dry. A lot of the slew holes or potholes were already dry even the permanent kind of the permanent wetlands areas that we normally think of a lot of those had very, very low levels or had gone dry. And our soil profile is also still pretty dry. We didn't have a real heavy frost. There is a frost layer, but it's not real deep and thick. And so I do expect to see a, we're gonna see individual patchy areas of flooding. There are gonna be people that have some concerns but I don't know that we're gonna have widespread prevent plant like we did last year. Now again, the one caveat of course is if we, if we get a lot of rain come now in the first part of May that will continually slow things up. Obviously that's a, that will be a game changer but based on what I see of the extended forecast I just don't anticipate that'll happen. I do expect to see some prevent plant. We always have some, you know little places here and there every year. It will, my best guess again right now would be, you know, something closer to the long-term average our long-term average is a little over a million acres of PP in the state. We had 2.3 last year. I would expect if I were to forecast something to be a million or a little over. So I think we will have some but not to the extent we did last year. Great and I think another question for you Frane about the current status of the corn contract or the corn relationship with Mexico. Yeah, so just a real quick context of, you know for the last several years has been this debate and ongoing kind of concern about the Mexican government prohibiting the importation of GMO corn and the use of GMO corn as well as glyphosate within Mexico. So where does that stand right now? They, within the USMCA which is kind of the new version of NAFTA there was some provisions put in and that when it was renegotiated to allow a mediation time period where the three countries that were involved would be able to try and work out and have a mediation process where they'd be able to bring forward their concerns and have them discussed as the three parties rather than taking it to WTO. That process has been initiated. The United States has asked the Mexican government to provide a detailed listing of concerns and as well as any kind of research backing their concerns to open up that discussion. And so we're still waiting to see what the Mexican government's response will be to that. And then the negotiations for some kind of resolution will take place from there. So right now, the any kind of formal prohibition of importing GMO corn has been moved back into 2024. So we do have a little bit of a window here. We don't expect that to impact short-term buying our sales of US corn into Mexico. Thanks, Brian. And then a question for me thoughts about diesel prices this summer. The big driver of diesel prices on the band side is just the state of the economy, which remains quite strong. So as long as freight movements don't shift dramatically, that's generally supportive of the price regime that you're under. Obviously the OPEC oil supply reduction will impact that. And I did, my original gut would say I wouldn't expect much in terms of prices changing. I did just pull up the CME diesel futures. And after this month, they expect to go up a little bit made then they're flat as a rock through the end of the year. It's a tough one to really get too much of a grasp on again because there are a variety of factors that can cause large significant shifts within days as we've seen recently. And then finally a question for Brian with lower cap rates on agricultural land. Do you think it will slow the rate land values, slow the rate of land values being sold or just pull out outside buyers? Well, I think actually a little bit of both because if you pull out some outside buyers even if they make up 10 or 15% of the market that's still 10 or 15% of buyers who look elsewhere because the rates of return are better. And that's significant. Like when you think back to the housing bubble bursting in 0809, it wasn't like 20 or 30% of people lost their homes. It was like 7, 8, 9% and it still cratered things. So that would have an impact. I think the other thing that will have an impact is rates staying high because I'd said in my talks where I discussed this that a lot of the land that had been purchased in the last couple of years had been either purchased entirely with cash or such a big cash percentage laid down that a higher interest rate isn't that big a deal. I mean, if I'm only financing 20 or 30% of the purchase then it's not as big a deal paying higher interest. That's one thing. And the other thing is if you're a lender and they're putting down that amount of money you don't really concern yourself with it because you're pretty protected if 70% of the value of the assets are repaid. That said, I think that land prices continuing going up is going to price some people out of the market. I mean, that's obvious.  So it does have a sort of a self limiting mechanism in there because as prices go up and if rates stay high then inevitably the price gets to a point where folks really can't justify the purchase and so things slow down. And that's why in my example when I talked about cap rates if let's say interest rates stay around 6% for the next five years the most likely scenario where they cap rates get closer to where they are typically compared to interest rates that's a increases in the cash rental rate and land prices more of a hold even, right?  Yeah, it looks like another question for Brian do you have any idea on the percentage of farmland purchases that happened with a 1031 exchange involved? That I'm not sure about I've actually been asked that question before and I don't know how many involve a 1031 exchange. I mean, I'm not sure. Can you define what that is in case folks don't know? What was that Dave? I didn't, I didn't guess it. Can you just define what a 1031 exchange is in case any attendees don't know? Yeah, so I'm not super familiar with 1031 exchanges but I do know it has to do probably frame can even explain that better than myself but it has to do with like the rollover of it. I believe go ahead Frank, if you're going. Yeah, or Ron, if you want to hand I can handle it but if Ron you want to jump in. Go ahead Frank, you know. Okay, no, so when you sell property, the gain on that property is taxable income. Well, you have a window and I forget the exact time window but if you take that sale of property A and you're within that time window you can purchase similar types of property and you'll roll that gain into the new property. So the sale of property and then the repurchase of a similar tract is not a taxable event. So basically you're delaying or forestalling the tax obligation or tax consequences of a sale and a repurchase. And so there are time windows because of that time lag or that window where if somebody has sold some property made a gain on it they might be looking for other properties that they can defer their tax liability. And as a result, they'll pay a little bit higher price for that repurchase higher than market just because they're looking at it from a tax management standpoint. Yeah, thanks Frank to find it better than I can. I always just kind of looked at it as a kind of a deal like a, if you sell stock you can then roll it into a new stock purchase and you don't have to pay the capital gain on it if you hold it for a certain length of time and things like that like an investment. The only thing I kind of was familiar with that part of the only thing on the 1031 though or not or the rollover, like I said, if somebody is selling farmland you, most of the time folks, this is anecdotal purely, but most of the time folks sell they're not selling to look and buy new they just buy new like if they're looking to accumulate land they're either gonna be, they're looking to sell because the a family member dies or something and they're trying to split up assets or they're getting out of farming or something like that.  And then if they are in the market to buy they're probably not looking to unload everything they're probably looking to grow the size of their operation. So again, I don't know how many of those actually take place and so, and I'm not sure that there's data available on it to be honest where I would find it. But I would, I guess my weak guess is that it's low that it's probably not a common practice not that it's totally uncommon just that I don't think that that would be something just thinking about it logically that folks would do all that on it. Thanks, Brian and Frank. And that does exhaust our questions. I really do wanna thank all the folks who did ask questions it's fun, it's lively makes us know that you're paying attention. But with that, I wanna thank our attendees again and as well as our presenters this webinar will be posted to the webpage we'll also get those presentations up there as well. And with that, we'll see you in May on the 18th. Thanks.


Hey guys she bear 1,000 here today I'm going to share some clips with you of our weekend and a couple clips from the abandoned tree house Fort clubhouse type thing. Stay tuned Okay guys, so as you can see it's not real bright out It's about 5 30 in the evening Sunday night. I'm doing my intro now Because I didn't do an intro yesterday, I don't have any clips of the yard sale thing Because we actually did a two and a half hour live stream So I didn't actually film any of that But I did film what we did today and I did film some clips of last night at the while I was live streaming over at the clubhouse, so I hope you guys enjoy the clips and I hope you have a great week, so check these clips out and see what you think and Hopefully you enjoy them Here they are. I Went over to a clubhouse.  Yeah somebody you jiggle it too. Yeah, just moving it just jiggles They're afraid of it falling, but it's look solid Yeah, so that's what we're doing. We'll let you know if anything exciting happens. So stay tuned. I'm sure something will How'd you do today?  Yeah See what we do and we got us. So it's a couple of things Yeah for the house that I need That this and We traded I didn't pay for these we traded these for a hamburger to that gentleman We traded the cheese burger for those. Yeah, this is fun wheeling dealing He needed a burger. I needed them rollers. Yeah, it'll work. Yeah They're good I don't know if you can tell this or not, but I am in the clubhouse it's about 730 and I just took this camera right here off the charger in the battery lights blinking Very weird, so I'll give you a pan around view here. There's a hole. I gotta come up So stay tuned for more. I want to start a live stream Hang tight the spider. It's you. It's even p-time. I Didn't bring a voice recorder. I think it goes behind me Where this footage in the video? Maybe we can pick something up. I'm gonna be real quiet for a minute They call him the skunk ape down here See I'm live streaming and I am recording I Am in the abandoned. I don't know how abandoned it is But I'm in the treehouse type thing the clubhouse. I'm filming at the same time of live stream So I'm here. What time is it? Does anyone know it's gonna be a long night And then we and then we got to go down in the morning and set up set up for the sales stuff again You gotta climb in Be careful monk Yes, I know nothing I was just up there There's no nest up there. I know it's creepy be up there by yourself. I'll see you Nothing hardest parts get me won't get you down I was just up there can you see a lot later Scooted everything out the way back there in that corner right there way back there. Yeah See if this is mine, I put hand rolls here. Yeah, you won't be ticked like a little chilly, but not too bad No, did you feel anything? Yeah Don't do that. I'm freaking heavy. You shouldn't do that. Don't yell at me. I don't want to fall It fall over with the two of us in there. Oh, that'd be really great. No, we find us for days, huh? But you can hear the racing. They're racing now. Yeah Hey, Dairy, are you here? Can you knock? It's on Okay, cool Recording Jerry come visit me Jerry if you're here, please knock. Are you with your parents now?  That wasn't the last time you cry Jerry. Why are you crying? I'm getting chills up and down my leg. He said what? Jerry, why are you crying?   We'll talk to you again. Okay, Jerry Bye Let me spin you guys around. I gotta get down this ladder. I shouldn't be doing this at all.   I ain't demons alright. Okay, I got you. Take your time. Take your time baby Just like the rope line at school. One step at a time. There you go. Very good You've got two more Okay one more and I'll look around. Very good. Good job honey. That's how my boy's going after. 57. Yeah, feels like it. Alright, off we go. Yeah, you can see the house better than I can see you up there. I told you and if you look at that one there you can see that little light on there. That yeah, so I can go over here see that that little light there that's what yeah, I was just showing him the light Right his soul is being planted by evil angels demons This light's going down. Look at it. They can't go faster. Sorry. I can't go faster. Yeah, this light is that hole. What? I said a hole. Jesus Christ.  She can move when she wants to. Jesus. All I said was there's a hole when she was gone. I don't know if you got seen that but she was gone past me like. Okay, see what's when we get closer here when she gets closer the porch light will kick all the way on there. Well, that's because we're behind the trucks. They just kicked on. Okay guys, just want to say thanks for watching. That was our weekend. And they say month. What do you say? Monkey's out for now. Make any money? A little bit. 53. Yeah, 53. $53. That's pretty good for today. Yeah. For a Sunday. That was better than yesterday. Yeah. Yeah. But there was a lot of other sales going on. Yeah, I think that was better than yesterday. Yeah. But so anyway guys, Morrow Veterans Day. So happy Veterans Day to all my veterans. And thank you for your service. Appreciate it. Past and present. Huh. So we're going to sign off for now. And if we're going to pack up, gentlemen next door, he's packing up. So I probably won't get back down here again until Friday. I'm going to come tomorrow. Well, I'll be here tomorrow, yeah. So maybe I'll click you on and do some recording tomorrow. We'll see. But anyway, that was our weekend. So I hope you enjoyed the clips. I appreciate you watching. And we'll chat at you guys soon. Shay Bear the myth of man legend. I'm gone for now. Bye-bye guys. Take care.


Hey guys, it's Nate, A.K. the photo accountant. Welcome back to the channel. We have a lot of information to go over today in the video as Headliners Team 2, the team of the week, SBC's objective cards, a lot of leaks have been taking place and it's mostly around Headliners Team 2 and it's got everybody really looking forward to this upcoming weekend on this Game of FIFA 22 Ultimate Team because Headliners, the team 2 that is leaked looks really, really good and it's causing the market to move a lot. Again, that's why we talk about leaks is because if it moves the market, we need to cover it and we need to realize and talk about why things are dropping in price. We have leaks about a team of the week coming today on Wednesday. It's dropping some cards currently on the market and also some cards are flying in price because of links to these leaks. So I also want to take a look at the Headliners Market from Team 1. A lot of these Headliners cards I know people are very interested in. I want to take you through some of my thoughts on how I think some of these Headliner cards are actually going to rise. You know, they could rise a decent amount out of packs later on this week. Even if Team 2 is really good, Headliners almost always rise out of packs because they are alive. They have that win streak and they have the performance-based upgrade, you know, live aspect to the card, still on them. And a lot of these cards, in my opinion, they're pretty cheap, right? A lot of these Headliners are pretty cheap because people aren't as hyped as they were for Winter Wild cards. So that could potentially make some of them some good investments as we head towards them leaving packs later on this week. So we'll talk about that in this video as well. Of course, yesterday's content with the 84-plus player pick, the Edward SBC, and what could happen today on the Wednesday market inside of FIVA 22. So if you're excited to get into it, of course, leave a thumbs up and, of course, subscribe to the channel if you're new. Let's take a look at these leaks, right? Because this is what everybody's talking about right now. I think since the content and since Headliners is not as loved as Winter Wild cards, there's a lot more people talking about leaks and there's a lot more hype around it. But when you see this Team 2 of Headliners coming Friday, you kind of understand why. And we're going to look at some confirmed stats as well. Some of these cards actually look really insane. This is definitely a situation where Team 2 is better than Team 1, in my opinion. So looking through some of these names, Salah, Kimmich, Cancelo, Vinny Jr., Fofana, and again, you're going to know these two fire symbols here by these two cards. We're going to look at some confirmed stats. Again, they're cracked, right? The booths on these cards are insane. Barella, Trap, Laborde, Rafael Leal, I think that's a cool one. Zapata, Watkins, Josaloo, Teate's got a really potential, really good looking card with a big upgrade. Wilson and Elustando. So it's 15 different players, of course, and 11 dropped in packs than probably a mini-release on Sunday, this coming weekend. But again, the reason why I think that Headliners Team 2, as I see some of these cards leaked and listed here, is because, yes, Team 1, you've got Mbappe, yes, you have Nkunku, you have Kula Bali and Van Dyke, and even, I would say, Rhys James and Akunya are pretty dope. Nabria is pretty dope. Karasko is dope. But out of this team, I mean, think about some of the very popular players that you have in FIFA terms this year, right? Fofana's Player of the Month. You've got the Barella Inform that people absolutely love. Vinny Jr., Need I Say More, Cancelo, Multiple Special Cards, Salah, Multiple Special Cards with a Player of the Month, the Team of the Group Stage card. He's getting another item. You know, even some other sleepers, right? Like Rafael Leal could have a really dope-looking card, right? For a Serie A striker or left wing, whatever position he's going to be. Ali Watkins as a Prem striker. I believe this is, I don't know if this is Harry Wilson or if it's Callum Wilson. That kind of depends and changes things. La Borde's card, after his Player of the Month, is probably going to look really good as well. And I want to take a look at some of these confirmed stats because not all of these cards are confirmed. But look at this Cancelo, right? A 90-rated Cancelo card, he's a part of the team. Again, these are live cards. Manchester City on a roll in the Premier League. You know, you think that the next four league games, this Cancelo would go to a 91. Surely not too far after that, right? 89-pace, 89-dribble. He is one upgrade away. If you give this guy a plus one or if he gets an inform, you know, 90-pace, 90-dribbling, you're going to break into the 80 physicality, almost 90-passing. This card is insane, right? I know we're on, you know, like the verge of team of the year and Cancelo is in conversation for a team of the year card. So there's going to be a lot of talk around something like that too, same with Sala, right? But still, these cards that are dropping this variety look really, really good. Let's take a look through some more stats. I think Cancelo's special cards really aren't dropping off that much at the moment. If we take a look at like Cancelo's team, the group stage, Adam, yeah, he's about the same price. But I think most of that is because all of his cards, except for his gold version, are left-back, right? And this is going to be a right-back version of Cancelo, which is kind of cool, honestly, to get both sides. So wherever he fits in your team best, you can use him there. But that card looks really, really good. There's the Cancelo, a couple other cards. This is one that everybody's excited about. Vinny Jr. 88, and we talked about this last week as well. Since we saw EA upgrading cards above the player of the months, that's got this Vinny Jr. looking really, really insane. 99 paced, 94 dribbling, 84 shooting, 82 passing, 78 physical. That's a really nuts-looking card. And also to note that this is a live item. This Vinny Jr. is probably going to be pretty expensive. I know a lot of you guys have done the player of the month, Vinny Jr., who was coming in at 680K. He was cheaper than that. When his SBC was first out, he was in the 570K range to get this done not too long ago. And this card is going to be above that player of the month. And yes, it does have potential to upgrade further. But I think this card might be somewhere around a million coins because, again, it's live and it can upgrade based on how they win, based on how he plays. And he is incredibly hot in real life form at the moment. So that card looks really, really good. He's got 99 paced once again. The dribbling, the shooting, the passing goes even higher. I'm sure he's going to be super duper cracked like all of his other versions are. Salah going to a 93. You've got 94 paced, 94 dribbling, 92 shooting.  And that's going to be another live item for Salah and upgradeable as well. Let's go through some more of these stats. Kimmich, 74 paced. Still looks pretty good. Definitely the pace is what you look at. And you're like, hmm, this needs like two or three shadows if you could put multiple chemistry styles on a card. That's kind of what he would need. But that's a pretty good looking card. Let's see. This is one that everybody is super duper, duper excited about. And this guy is going to be very hyped. He's going to be very hyped. He's going to be very talked about. And he's going to be expensive, right? He's actually just yesterday, I believe, scored two goals in a win for Lens, right? And the combination of this card coming out on the game and a leaked Klaus, SBC. And if you don't know who Klaus is, it's this guy. He's got an 84 rated in for him. Evidently he is getting a headliners SBC at some point during the team two promotion. So that is obviously a green link to this Fofana card, right? Fofana, Klaus, those links. This is going to be, we've had so many League One center mids recently. Again, everybody's hyped about Gen Duzzi right now who's like 245,000 coins and keeps going higher. But like this Gen Duzzi, you know, he's going to take a hit when this Fofana comes out. I think this Fofana is going to be like 500,000 coins and maybe even a little bit more. Even Kunku right now is 500,000 coins. I think that with the amount of hype this guy has and how good his player of the month is, if you guys have not seen or not heard, this guy Fofana is an absolutely cracked player of the month card that Poros have even used and said it is super duper, duper good. Now just imagine him getting this monstrous stat upgrade to an 88 and having potential to upgrade if he can have some more better performances later on this year. That card's going to be expensive. Everybody's going to be all over that one. You look at this card as well. Now this card right here made a lot of the market move yesterday. And this is what I'm talking about where cards on the market went up in price as links to this Zacaria item. And this is going to be an objective card, right? This is going to be an objective card for Zacaria and that's why a lot of this stuff went up. That would be the two best objectives back to back in this game in my opinion. If you take a look at Zacaria and of course the Felipe Anderson which of course is still out right now in this game. So cards that went up yesterday because of this and Babu both versions of the versus and Babu the ice and the fire versions went up a ton. Like the, I actually had fire and Babu which I'm trying to find right now. Yeah, there he is 130,000 coins. I actually had like three of these on my transfer list and I had them listed up at 117K because I bought him on Monday for 99,000 coins because I knew that he got a little bit low and he usually sells between 115 and 120. So I bought him at 99K and what happened yesterday is people saw this leak. They went out and they rash invested in this and Babu card because it's one of the only links to Zacaria and Babu went from 100,000 coins. He actually exploded up to about 150K. Now he's back down around 130. The ice version of Babu which is the lesser valued version went from about 75, 79, like 80,000 coins all the way up to like 110 and right now he's chilling 105. So that's probably the biggest point of the market that moved a lot yesterday on this game. Now, let's say you bought some and Babu's right and you know these and Babu's they could go a little bit higher. We have a few days until this promo is released and there's people still going to be talking about these objectives and stuff. Here's what I'm talking about and here's what I want to say about investing in the leaks. If you're investing in and Babu's or maybe you bought like Brille and Bolo, right? The Swiss Bundesliga striker also went up because that's a green link to Zacaria.  Yes, it could go a little bit higher but also if you think about the Fofana and the Klaus SBC that is coming soon you have some major competition for this and Babu card. People are going to get hyped about Zacaria. Yes, but also at the same time they're going to get hyped about a Klaus SBC and potentially the Fofana card that is out in packs as well. So if you bought these and Babu's at like 120 or less if this guy before Friday is upwards of like 150,000 coins which he very well could be and maybe if like the ICE card is like 120K then I would heavily consider taking the cash and selling in the hype because you've got Cancelo as a right back in the upcoming team. You've got Klaus coming up. So I know this and Babu is like the Bundesliga right back that people would use. All I'm trying to say is I would just use some caution with this card because a lot of people have invested and unless we have seen some of these cards like if you remember Cornet and you remember stuff like that some of these links to the leaked players have gone up in price after the card has been dropped but with other right backs coming out and a lot of investing happening on this and Babu card and right now I'm just trying to, you know try to catch an undercut. If I see like 120 something on this card I'm probably going to pick it up because I think he can go to like 140, 150 later on this week if nothing else crazy comes out. So that's kind of my thoughts on the Babu selling in the hype is 100% the safe play and nine times out of 10 that's what I'm going to recommend because that is the safe play then you get your coins, no risk you don't have to worry about how EA puts out the objective if they make it super hard to do even though it's leaked that it's a very easy Zacariah objective you never know. So that was the biggest leak yesterday right the Fofana card and the Zacariah card were 100% the biggest leaks from yesterday everybody was talking about this and that's what made the market move the most now one more thing to talk about with leaks and stuff and then we'll be kind of done with it for today and talk about some other things there's been movements on the market because of team of the week today as well Conte's informs are dropping in price big time because he has got a new inform coming today on the market if we take a look at the Conte 91 he is down he's 435,000 coins he was 500K yesterday the leaks came out and he's really just been dropping ever since and one thing that people are a little bit worried about with this upcoming team of the week is the compensation right remember the compensation that we're still waiting on EA Sports tweeted yesterday well before we get into that Conte, Phil Foden, PK, Schmeichel, Anhel Correa those are all confirmed cards to be in the team of the week that is coming today but the one reason that people are a little bit worried about this upcoming team of the week and why they might be selling that Conte 91 is because they expect the compensation pretty soon and that compensation to happen during this brand new team of the week that gets released today and that means that there's going to be a ton of packs open for the brand new team of the week that drops today on FIFA so this is EA's update yesterday they said update we are continuing to identify impacted players and are aiming to measure them in game by the end of this week so that tells me hopefully honestly I'm hoping that before this happens before Friday because if it doesn't happen before Friday that means that the brand new cards from Headliners Team 2 are going to get a lot of extra supply from those compensated packs and that's going to be a very interesting point of the market to watch but sometime around the end of this week right that's kind of what we were expecting we knew it was going to take them a while so we're still waiting on that time frame waiting on when it's going to happen but whenever this compensation gets dropped again everything that is in packs at that time is going to get hit in price so that's our update about the giving packs back situation right now on this game and I think that's why there's some people that are selling some of these cards a little bit extra like Foden of course is in team of the week Foden's rule breakers was like 260, 270,000 coins he's back up a bit a little now but he was down he did drop to like 240 flat and he was kind of low as people were selling his card so I would expect to see some more selling on this Foden a little bit today because a Foden inform is going to be 87 rated it may not be as good as this rule breakers Foden card but it's going to be a lot cheaper like even if it's a center attacking mid it's probably going to come on the market today and be like less than 100K and over the weekend probably dropped to be like 50, 60,000 coins for an informed Foden 87 rated so I think there's still some more panic selling to come on some of these cards that could be in team of the week today now speaking of that Kante card a lot of times what you see too is gold cards people buy the gold cards that are going out of packs so Kante's gold has gone from 150K he was 150K on Monday he is now 177,000 coins I believe he is up like almost 20,000 coins in price and people are probably going to continue buying this because he links to the brand new SBC that we got yesterday but that was another area of the market that moved a lot was this Kante gold started going up as people expect him to go out of packs Salah's gold card is starting to go up I snagged one of those last night at like 79,000 coins I believe it was 80,000 coins I got a couple actually 79,80,000 coins for this Salah I think he's like 85K and Van Dyke is a good example of what happens with popular Premier League players Van Dyke I bought this for 49,000 coins he was like 46,47K before his headliners card came out into the game for his gold item and then this gold card goes out of packs and the gold Van Dyke I believe was like 57K at one point so this Van Dyke was even like 40,000 coins earlier in the week before he was put out into packs so this guy has gone up a lot in price so I'm going to sell these again before he comes back into packs when headliners team 2 is released of course but that's why people are investing in some of those higher Premier League gold cards is because they just rise out of packs because a lot of people still use them in their teams and there's demand for them so that's why you see those rises happening on this market and on this game now let's talk about Wednesday content today and also look at yesterday's content the Odson-Edward SBC now a lot of people are saying, hey, should I do this or should I have Benzema in my team and honestly, I think Benzema is still the better card here but this is a cool card, it really is and I can't say much else other than that the reactions in the attack positioning are what everybody's going to look at and say hey this card is not as good as Benzema or it's not that good 92 composure, he's got finesse shot trait, he's got pace he's got really good agility balance, really good strength it's an interesting card it's got a really sick dynamic image as well you can't see it unless you go to right here on this little side tab I don't know, that dynamic image just looks really dope it's only out for a week but it's a cool SBC, right? GG's EA, it's cool, it's not bad but that wasn't the SBC that people got all excited about yesterday the 84 plus player pick rose some of the fodder market if you had 84s, you were loving this SBC yesterday because 84s went up a decent amount of price and so did Informs if we take a look at the fodder market you can see the 84s were the biggest risers because that SBC required an 83 squad and a team of the week the 84 index went from 112 points all the way up to where it is now at 130 84s are now running you about two and a half thousand coins a piece and I believe that Informs are all like 12 to 13k as well so some of those went up two, three, four thousand coins a card some Informs are selling at like 14 to 15,000 coins so that's kind of how the market moved yesterday there wasn't really a lot of panic I bought some cards traded with a few things made a little bit of profit but it definitely wasn't as crazy as Monday with that mid icon, right? just because a lot of people can just go do an 84 plus player pick really easy from the club or it doesn't cost them any coins whereas a mid icon SBC that requires a lot of people to sell cards then they have to go back out and buy them back after they do the SBC so moving on into today again one other thing that we have to talk about are the headliner cards and I think I'm going to focus on this a little bit more on tomorrow's video but since technically later on tonight Wednesday night late or Thursday morning early whatever you are in the world we have rewards today and tomorrow we're going to be interesting days for investing in these headliner cards now you know these cards are live and the first thing I'm going to say is and we'll talk about it more tomorrow again is that live cards almost always do well out of packs seriously they almost always do well because they have that live you know aspect to them now these cards of course they have not been very hyped since day one there's some cool cards in here and I think people will want to add these to their squads even these next couple of weeks so I do think there's potential for these to rise a little bit out of packs I don't exactly know what the best time is going to be though I think what you're going to really look for in a lot of these cards is you're going to have to see some sort of drop off whether it's content today on Wednesday whether it is some sort of pack supply or panic selling before the pack supply at rewards or maybe even marquee matchups right marquee matchups coming out on Thursday if you remember the winter wild cards from team two last week some of these cards kind of rose up after rewards but then they went down again I remember that happened on sterling they kind of went down again during marquee matchups and it presented another buying window another buy opportunity for some of those cards last week so I would really keep a watch on these headliners if you think that you want to get involved on like a short-term flip into the weekend with these cards we're going to dive into that more tomorrow I don't want to spend too much time taking a look at those today but all I would say is watch for market dips and if you see a big drop on these cards before rewards that could be a buy time for some of these items again the only thing you really have to worry about too is an insane team two that is leaked to be coming out so again those are the leaks that is a team we are expecting those cards look really good they really do and it seems a lot of times team one of the promo is better than team two but with all those leaked cards that are coming out soon it seems like team two really could be pretty hype I know we're really getting close into the time frame of like team of the season or sorry team of the year and stuff like that and there's already been some talk about dates for team of the year voting coming very soon so that's of course going to be on people's minds as well and on the market but you know I still think there's room for some of these headliner cards to have their kind of moment to shine and a lot of people being excited about them especially after team of the year these cards are going to play a vital part in the market as usually you see the market rise post team of the year so we're going to have to keep these cards into consideration as they're alive as a lot of people will want to capitalize on that lies live aspect of these cards later on in the next few weeks so we're going to keep watching these headliner cards today Wednesday you know Wednesday's on the market are always a little bit of a stale day to be completely honest a lot of people end up selling some of the cards from their team because they expect the rewards time frame they know that they're going to be opening some packs maybe getting some coins and they can't they kind of move around and switch up their team so for a lot of things on the market today I don't expect a lot of fluctuation what I would say to watch out for would be panic selling right whether it's the brand new team of the week that's causing some of that panic or whether it is some of the team two cards like again we talked about like Salah and Kimmich Vinicius Junior, Cancelo, Barela all of those cards that are supposedly getting headliners very soon have other special cards so I would watch out for panic selling on some of these cards as people get more information and see the leaked team like this Vinicius Junior is 470K yeah so he's down like 20K from where he was yesterday he was around the 490 range and he's probably going to stay there right so I would keep an eye on all of these special cards that are getting into team two because you're probably going to see some more selling on those now today will still be an interesting day I don't know what content wise we could be getting ooh that's a big undercut if I could sell that at like 480, 490 man I don't even know if I can sell at 490 you know what we're just going to buy it anyways because Vinicius at 451 let's take a look at the footprint graph there's 20, 25K of tax I need like 480 to get that sold so he was 480 an hour ago he was 490 twice yesterday so he's rare he's Vinicius Junior we'll try to sell him for 490 but yeah just watch the market today panic selling is going to create a good opportunity to trade if Conte's inform comes out and it's super rare and people aren't saving team of the week packs or they don't run any sort of lightning rounds or something like that and the new Conte's like a million coins today or 800, 900K this Conte might rebound back a little bit as people still want to use the card and it's way cheaper than his new version you could see some movements like that but it should be an interesting Wednesday as we get one day closer to the end of the week headliners too I will keep you guys filled in of course if we see any more leak information I usually don't tweet a lot of that stuff out but we cover it here in the videos because it absolutely moves the market and there's absolutely a lot of stuff moving this market right now because of the leaks so that is the video for today boys if you did enjoy it, smash the thumbs up on a comment down below if you have any questions and subscribe if you're new it's been Nathan Foot Account and I'll catch you guys later peace out


I really want to dye my hair. It's taken all in me not to dye it now. But like, do I really have the energy to do it all now? No, I don't. I've had my e-vote and I'm mad. It's just not a good idea. So anyway, hey what's up you guys, welcome to my channel if you're here. Hi, hello, I'm Lydia and today we're doing a life-up day video. It's been a while since the film's a life-up day and yeah. Do you like my wall of postcards? Over on 6 weeks out of hospital, which is amazing. It's actually the longest I've been out of hospital in over two years. So that's something. My medication's still the same as it was when I was in hospital. I haven't changed, which is good. The medicine one made me stable and I've got no reason to want to change my medicine at all. It's been ages since I sat and spoke to a camera. I haven't sat and spoke to a camera since I was in hospital. Oh wait no, I did do a video I got out of hospital. But you know what I mean, it's been a long time since I've made a video directly about me. So what else is the total date you are? I'm slowly depurating and flat to look how I want it to look. I've got plans to go see Beth again when I get here. All in all things are going really well and I'm doing well. I'm amazed there's been no sirens going past. There's been sirens all day and once I wake up my camera, they stop. I think thankfully. Let's edit in for me. I don't really know what else to update you guys on. Not too much has been going on. Oh I went and saw the New York Doctor Strange film in cinemail. That was good. I hate wearing 3D glasses though. I'm trying to wear two sets of glasses at the same time and it doesn't work. Thanks for watching I guess. I'll see you guys soon in the next one. Peace.