So, we started talking about hypothesis testing and we said that hypothesis is a statement about a population parameter and we said in a hypothesis there are actually two hypothesis H 0 and H 1 which are complementary and the H 0 hypothesis is basically a statement like my parameter theta belongs to some set big theta 0 and that we are calling it as null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis is my theta belongs to the complement class which I am calling it as null hypothesis and if my thetas are like a real line I may put a partition somewhere like if my theta space is like a real line I may say ok I am put this as my theta 0 and ask whether I this is below this or above this ok. So, in hypothesis testing we are going to come up with a rule that tells whether my hypothesis need to be accepted or rejected. So, the rule is going to give me tell me how to make a decisions and one of the possible decisions criteria we came up is based on likelihood ratio test which we called LRT ok. So, LRT is defined as ratio of two quantities which are defined in terms of your likelihood function. The numerator is optimizing your likelihood function over theta naught which is basically the parameters belonging to your null hypothesis and the denominator is optimizing over the entire parameter space which is theta 0 as well as theta 0 complement. So, this ratio whatever we are going to get for a given samples x we denote it as L of x sorry lambda of x and our decision is going to be now if lambda x is going to be less than or equals to c I am going to reject it to be a null hypothesis and accept it as an alternate hypothesis and notice that there is a c here which is the parameter that you are going to set for making this decision. And what will be the range of lambda x here obviously denominator is going to be larger than the numerator ok my likelihood functions are positive. So, this ratio is going to be between 0 1. So, my c will be also for some range between c 0 1 we will take ok. So, we calculated last time this example about the binomial random variable sorry yeah we did it for a Bernoulli random variable with parameter p and our hypothesis were whether it is a fair coin or an unfair coin ok. So, what we will do is today we will do one more exercise on the let us say your samples now ok let us take n sample and assume that this x i's are coming from from mu sigma square ok and you want to ensure that. So, fine your x i's are i i d coming from Gaussian distribution with parameter mu and sigma square and now your goal is to identify your hypothesis on this parameter mu and let us assume that this sigma square is known ok. And now I want to make two hypothesis my null hypothesis is theta is going to be less than or equals to some theta naught ok and my h 1 is theta is going to be greater than this theta naught fine. Now, first I want to now find out a likelihood ratio apply a likelihood ratio test on this and I want to find out that likelihood what is that likelihood ratio and for that I need to first find out my likelihood function ok. So, what is the likelihood function of theta given x we know this is nothing, but 2 pi sigma square n by 2 exponential minus x i minus mu r theta here theta square divided by 2 sigma square ok. So, now let us write lambda of x this is sup over theta divided theta less than or equals to theta naught this whole quantity and sup over entire theta l theta by x ok. Now, first let us do the bottom one denominator 1 because that is unconstrained whereas, the numerator is the constrained one right. So, if you if you try to optimize over theta what is that theta that will optimize this likelihood function sample mean. So, that is the one the one the denominator is going to be sample mean what is the one that is going to optimize the numerator why anybody can think why that is going to optimize at theta naught. So, just think about this whether this quantity here is increasing or decreasing in theta decreasing ok let us say if you increase theta x i minus theta is going to decrease and with a minus sign increase. So, what is the effect of increasing theta on this quantity is it going to increase, but notice that it is a square here it is not a linear term here does the square bother why do not I just go out quickly what is that see this is the only parameter theta is coming here right I do not need to worry about this guy is a constant for me because sigma square is known and now only thing you have to optimize is this quantity right and here I am interested in maximizing, but if you ignore this minus sign you have to just minimize this quantity find out what is that theta that minimizes this ok maybe let us quickly do that. So, if I differentiate this is going to be simply x i minus theta times minus 1 right I am just differentiating this quantity here everybody is in sync with me differentiating exponent I am just trying to differentiate the exponent this is the exponent here or maybe let me keep that minus here this minus I also kept. So, 2 sigma square now so, this quantity becomes what is become minus minus summation x i minus n theta naught sorry n theta ok. Now, you have also that constant theta is less than or equals to theta naught right how you are going to handle this constraint or to also get not ok fine. So, how you do how do you handle this theta less than or equals to theta constraint you want to construct a Lagrange here or not necessary ok let us let us simplify this problem ok let us instead of this I will make your life easier. Let us only consider this problem here theta is equals to theta naught and theta is not equals to theta naught is this simpler I am only considering the hypothesis whether theta is theta naught or not. So, then in the numerator there is nothing to optimize this is actually at theta naught ok and then what I will do is maybe I will because of this simplification I will not go into all these circles. So, then the numerator is going to be simply I will get rid of this constant because that anyway get cancelled in the numerator and denominator. So, exponential minus x i minus theta naught square 2 sigma square divided by exponential minus x i and what is that theta naught that is maximizing sorry what is that theta that is maximizing this that is exactly x bar. Everybody agree with this now if you simplify this this is nothing, but exponential minus x i minus theta naught square minus x i minus x i bar over square divided by 2 sigma square this is my lambda x this is my likelihood ratio test. Now, I want to set my rejection region as all x such that lambda of x is less than or equals to c for some given c. I am going to set given c which is belonging to 0 1 or maybe I should keep it open interval 0 and 1 ok. So, now, let us write this what is going to happen. So, now if I I want to now equate this to less than or equals to c if I do this what is the condition I am going to get minus x i minus theta whole square plus the summation will retain x i minus x bar whole square and I will take the exponential other side this is going to be log c right and there is also that 2 sigma square factor is there, but I think I should not take it like this I will just keep it like this too soon. Is this inequality fine? Now, what I will do is I will take this minus sign with 2 sigma square on the other side. So, you will end up x i minus y this is supposed to be theta naught this is the fixed theta naught theta naught minus x i minus x bar whole square. Now, this inequality become greater than or equals to right minus 2 sigma square log c. Now, is there any simpler expression for this say that again x i x bar minus theta naught whole square oh that is it this will just happen to be x bar minus theta naught do you do you agree that it is going to be simply x bar minus theta naught this left hand side. Why do not you quickly work out? Okay I also want to work out this okay let us do. So, the left hand side is going to be x i square summation plus n theta 0 square plus minus 2 summation x i theta right the first term and the second term is going to be summation x i square plus n x bar square then minus 2 x i x bar okay this whole thing and now this guy gets knocked off with this and I will club these two guys together n theta 0 square minus x bar square and now I am going to these two guys. So, these two guys how I can club. So, 2 I am going to divide this guy by n this sum because theta 0 is a constant I will divide it by n. So, I am going to get x bar theta naught this guy to this and this guy here x bar is also constant for me right from the data. So, that is going to be minus 2 x bar n x bar you are right this should be plus okay and this you simplify this is going to be n theta 0 square x bar square minus 2 n x bar 2 n x bar I have taken and theta naught minus x bar is this correct. And this is it now we have this it is not as simple as as you said that it is simply theta yeah you want to write it as theta minus x into theta plus x I mean product of theta minus x into theta plus this okay let us do that. So, I am going to take theta x bar outside and and n is anyway common this is going to be theta plus x bar and minus n is already out 2 x bar okay. So, fine this is going to be n oh is it coming to that guy okay theta naught minus x bar is it correct okay. So, you are his friend want to prove him right okay fine then this is going to be n theta 0 minus x bar whole square and this. So, final condition is theta 0 minus x bar whole this should be greater than or equals to minus 2 sigma square log c this is my condition okay. If you want to further simplify you can take the square root both sides divide take this n on the other side and you will get everything just in terms of if x bar is greater than something but this is the condition you are going to get. If your x bar is such that this condition happens then you are going to reject it that that that is equals theta equals to theta 0 and if this condition is not true then you are going to accept that that is indeed has a parameter theta equals to theta naught okay fine any questions on this okay now let us look into if I want to start with the likelihood ratio sorry if I have if I have already have a sufficient statistic and if I want to use it what is the connection between that and my likelihood ratio test okay. So, let us say T of x is a sufficient statistics on my sample x which is drawn from a population f x given theta okay now our likelihood ratio test is this numerator and denominator and by definition this L of theta x we are simply taking it to be the pdf right but now we are talking about having a sufficient statistics L sorry T and we if we recall one of the properties of sufficient statistics is that we can split my pdf into two parts h and g where h is a function of x alone and g is a function of x only through t. So, I can write this in that case I can quickly knock off this h of x because it has nothing to do with my parameter theta now what I have is g of t of x if t is a sufficient statistic and g is another let us assume let us assume for hypothetically g is a one to one function what is this is g of t is so we have said right like if t is a sufficient statistics and we are going to apply another function on this this g composition t of x this is let us call this is t prime this t prime is again a sufficient statistic. So, now we have a ratio in terms of two sufficient statistics okay you can calculate I am simply writing it as L star now I have written it as L star maybe I should have yeah L star now this is a function of this given sufficient statistic and now I am going to call got a new expression for my ratio test in terms of this sufficient statistics that is what I am calling it as L of t of x okay. So, this is just I am denoting like when I am involving sufficient statistics t in my computation this likelihood ratio is coming from this sufficient statistic t okay. Okay now you can do all the things you want like you you just define your boundary rejection ratio always like maybe we should write the rejection ratio with a subscript c because that depends on that parameter c if you change your this is all x such that lambda x is going to be less than or equals to c if you are going to change your c your rejection region can potentially change okay okay this is one way. Now this is kind of assuming a frequentist approach right like assuming that okay theta is something some fixed parameter which I do not know and that is the parameter which is governing my pdf okay, but we have always seen that instead of assuming theta to be fixed we could be assuming that that is coming from another distribution itself and in that case we use this bias approach. So, the bias approach could be also used in the hypothesis testing how to use it okay let us see. So, in the bias hypothesis testing what we do we are going to assume some prior probability on my parameter theta that is always we do and after like you observed some sample x maybe your posterior is going to be phi of theta given x. So, that we have computed right how to compute the posterior given my prior information and an observation x okay. Now I can now define my new hypothesis instead of exactly whether it is except it belongs to this or this instead of asking these binary decisions we can make it probabilistic decision now whether tell me the probability that the observation I am making is coming from this parameter space. Earlier it was s no but now we are putting some probability on the s and some probability on the no okay. So, that is why we are saying now once we have this posterior probability after observing data or your sample you can ask the question what is the probability that theta belongs to my null hypothesis given my observation x is can you compute this probability from your posterior probability. So, once you know given x this posterior probability is giving you probability distribution of this theta now all I am asking is that it belongs to this set theta 0 I should be able to compute this right by integrating this probability over my space of theta 0 and similarly I should be also able to answer the question what is the probability that theta belongs to my complementary set using my posterior probability. Okay, now we can assign instead of asking whether h naught is true or not I can go into ask the question what is the probability that h naught is true given x what is the probability that h naught is false here oh sorry this is correct this is h 0 and what is the probability that h 1 is true given x now these are probabilistic arguments. Okay, now the decision criteria has to come earlier my decision criteria was I was putting some threshold on my likelihood sorry l i t function now earlier my decision criteria was like this where I could probably compute my lambda x but here I am computing the probabilities given an observation x what is the probability that h naught is true and h 1 is true. Now, what would be a what would be a natural candidate to make a decision here whether h naught is true or h 1 is true yeah you just may want to go like if this probability happens to be higher than this then you will say that okay h 0 is true otherwise h 1 is true but then that so you will simply say that h 0 is true if theta belonging to theta naught given x is going to be larger than theta belonging to this complement set given x and otherwise h 1 is true or alternately you can just say that if I have to put it in this structure I will compute this probability and if this probability is greater than half then I am going to reject it or basically accept the h 1 hypothesis. So, now this lambda x is being replaced by the probability that my parameters are coming from null hypothesis given my observation x okay. So, in the frequencies approach we will just construct my likelihood ratio test and in this a Bayesian approach I am just going to compute this probability based on my posterior distributions okay okay. So, this part on the Bayesian test okay any questions on this yeah you can make it strictly greater than if you are going to set it like this maybe you can just make it strictly greater than that does not matter usually we are going to be like yeah that matters if your theta space is discrete but most other times we will be working with theta space which is continuous in that case it does not matter.


Okay, very good morning. It's Anthony here and it's Monday the 13th of July. I hope everyone had a fantastic weekend Of the weekend news. We have had the biggest rise in COVID cases in Florida Still outbreaks being seen in Australia Japan. There's also a bit of apprehension around earning season It was all that being said equities back to all-time highs if you're looking at the Nasdaq So you could say business as usual to some extent Before I kick off though and talk about some of those themes in a little bit more detail Recap the overnight and weekend news flow and look at what's in store for the week ahead Just as a reminder, my Twitter handle is here below So feel free to follow me. You can always message me or private message me If there's any questions or anything you need but every Sunday I submit my macro menu, which is my written four-minute read to get you ready for the major fundamentals in focus So check that out if you have time but looking at the charts this morning then and what is on the agenda First of all from a center perspective pretty positive actually From an equity index point of view as you can see here The Nasdaq pushing back up at once again The S&P coming close to and finding a little bit resistance overnight in the R1 Which was the 3200 level the DAX then consequently up about 200 here at the market open The typical kind of sentiment related moves that we've seen that translate them from a correlated perspective into currency markets has generally been Dollar weakness on the back of any renewed or moderate risk appetite And that's again what we're generally seeing and so the Dixie's down about two tenths of 1% both major pairs up equally So so very much more really a dollar driven move than it is anything fundamental to Euro or sterling this morning As you can see in the top left hand corner here Euro and cable Gold is up though irrespective of that and certainly from a traditional Flight to quality kind of asset. It's been yes I guess underlying from a medium-term perspective That's what has cemented the rise through the $1,800 handle but from an intraday perspective It hasn't really been a particularly great indicator from the normal way Which it would react to say some of the short-term intraday movements to things like to stocks and in the currency market In anything the currency side of things remains a little bit better than the equity side With the Dixie weaker perhaps that's just helping bump things back up here But it's been particularly seesaw you can see here capsizing some of last week's price action In the gold market of what we had where we we got up to around 1830 Paul all the way back Briefly dropped sub the 1800 again before we've risen back to 1810 Elsewhere the ten years pretty flat oil a touch lower Quite a few people talking about the potential as I'll discuss in more detail of the tapered Tantrum and oil style as they have an important technical meeting to see and Discuss then what they're going to do in future And if all things remain as per the plan they should be set to start Reducing the kind of onus measures on the supply pact that's been in force. Of course over the last couple of weeks and months But let's kick things off then and talk through cycle through some of the major headlines and the kick things off with Earning season. It's that time of year again, and there are 35 S&P 500 companies reporting this week for Dow components included all 11 sectors have recorded a decreased expected earnings growth due to downed revisions to earnings estimates led by consumer discretionary energy industrials and financials according to fact set of the weekend so That really in itself those four sectors. So again to consumer discretionary energy industrials of financials We're all going to take the biggest hit should come as no surprise at all Considering the nature of the pandemic and the implication then of shutting down the entire economy as we've seen in the quarter being reported The main thing with earning season that does follow a pretty distinct pattern If you're not used to looking at this type of information that meaning that this week really is dominated by the US top tiered financial institutions so city JP Morgan Wells Fargo on Tuesday You can see here Goldman Sachs before the open on Wednesday Then you've got the Bank of America Morgan Stanley on Thursday Black Rock on Friday now a couple of things to look at here One is looking at US banks expected to post a big fall in Q2 net incomes In particular though as you can see here from the breakdown The fall is probably going to be slightly lesser so in the likes of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley comparative to say banks of a slightly different I guess Profile in regard to the actual products and how they generate their revenues comparative to say Wells Fargo and City and what this is basically suggesting that is when you look at these individual bank stocks in America They are quite different in terms of what they do So the more purest, let's say Investment banking names like goldman's and Morgan Stanley They're set to triumph over their main street kind of rivals due to the fact that you know They've had surging trading revenues is likely to be seen just given some of the volatile nature of what we've seen in markets So for the past couple of months Also lenders continue to face Numerous challenges one being that of incredibly low interest rate environment and deteriorating economic kind of situation at the moment under the pandemic and a need to shore up their credit reserves in case of any Loans going sour essentially given the uncertain nature of what this virus entails And the potential for a second wave and the consequent impact that I can have on their bottom line So here you can see America's biggest lenders are expected to post higher Loan losses those being the likes and of world's JP City Bank of America Rather than the more pure blood investment bank names like GS and MS who will probably outperform their counterparts here Overall though from an earnings season perspective the main thing I was kind of writing about at the weekend in my macro menu is that for Q2 The estimated earnings decline for S&P 500 stocks is going to be around about 44 and a half percent That's negative And so this marks one of the largest year-over-year declines in earnings reported for the S&P since basically the financial crisis however, one of the things here as we all know is that quite a lot of quite funny fin tweets over the weekend that I saw in response to this is that That's a buy signal. You know, this is the kind of world in which we live in and as much as the jokes aside very much so that this Corporate deterioration that we've had in Q2 is very much expected And so what's going to be important when we're looking at these earnings reports really is what does their outlook look like? What do they think about the shape of the the future for these individual companies and the economy as we go forward throughout the rest of 2020 remember According to most banks estimates and I say central banks We are looking for quite a pronounced kind of recovery as we go in towards the back end of this year and into the next into 2021 and that's what's probably going to be more of a decisive factor rather than the actual here and now Figures that would be reflected of the previous three months So that's earning season again banks being the main focus and they kick off tomorrow and Tuesday Elsewhere then as I said still a lot of Newspaper attention to the ongoing COVID situation the US continues to dominate here in terms of those headlines and Just to give you some stats Florida reported 15,300 new virus cases at the weekend that was the biggest one-day rise since basically the onset of the pandemic a 6% daily rise compared to an average of about 4.8% seen over the prior week US then continues to remain very high here United Kingdom pretty static the other two that are rising Even more rapidly at this point than the US albeit at a much lower level his Australia That was a talking point last week, of course that Continues to be an ongoing issue for them and then there's been the latest outbreak in Japan Which has seen their numbers start to come off quite a low base here on that blue line You can see down at the bottom As I said though, Florida was a little bit of focus and you're not this isn't a superimposed picture of a face mask on the president He actually wore one for the first time ever since the Pandemic has begun while he was visiting a Military medical center on Saturday.  So I guess It was somewhat inevitable that this was going to be the case and it comes after now the US States have ordered new restrictions this weekend and one of those then is and does now include mandatory Wearing of face masks and a president no different on this particular case The one thing to be clear though here What a couple things if we start looking at the trajectory of a lot of these curves the fact that some of these numbers have gone up I don't think it's particularly new information and I'm talking about this in the cold heart of the stats here Obviously, it's not a good situation for any of those involved, but here you can see yes Texas for example, Florida the numbers continue to creep up But you can see that they have been for a number of consecutive days here I think that largely explains why the market is relatively calm by some of these headlines that we keep reading So despite Florida seeing the biggest one-day rise one thing here. The state did report a drop in deaths I think it was to 44 from 95 the state's rate of positive tests Declined to 11.2 from 12.5 percent and that's the lowest since late June. So No, what's quite interesting still here as well It could be I guess subject to the fact that there's more testing happening at this point in time the ability for People to be more COVID aware meaning that they might seek medical attention quicker Those facilities are better set up in order to respond to those people coming into hospitals Meaning the actual the death rate remains fairly depressed Irrespective of the fact that cases continue to rise. There's a little bit of divergence there at this point in time so yeah, although this Sounds quite sensational a lot of the headlines you're reading I think all in all for this week unless we see Some sort of exponential growth in the R rates the reproductive rate in some of these key areas and these curves start to Re-steepen quite significantly or on a global level if we start to see Australia Japan even the UK Start to show signs of a significant pick up Particularly on the UK side given the fact that we went through our latest phase of reopening and loosening of lockdown Only a week or so ago So given the incubation period to be interesting to monitor those numbers But all things remaining equal unless those things develop or unless there is a definitive new Unwinding of some of the reopening and some of these American states that I really don't see this information Having too much of a defining factor of market prices this week All things remaining equal Elsewhere then OPEC. There's a little bit of discussion point around this to a certain degree The JMMC so the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee Which is kind of the technical task force issued by OPEC plus to just see what the latest Compliance rates are and have a broader discussion, but just given the inherent nature of the current pact coming to It's expiry at the end of the month. There's obviously a lot of discussion about When this meeting happens on Wednesday and what are they going to do next? So overall, there are 23 Countries involved in this national alliance to keep 9.6 million barrels of daily output off the market for another month Well, the decision comes and whether or not they should restore some supplies And they had originally intended to do so tapering the cut back down from 9.6 to 7.7 million barrels Now the reason for that is what they would see is that after the demand shock that we had in March when Obviously going into March April and prices briefly tipped into negative territory. A lot of that has started to Stabilize somewhat leaning toward then the latter option, which is to follow the game plan about reducing the onus nature of that value from 9.6 to 7.7 million That's what Several national delegates who asked not to be identified reported to Reuters over the weekend So at the moment, that's kind of our base case expectation however The thing here and the reason why this this word taper is being used in taper tantrum this harks back to a decision made from the Federal Reserve about How quickly you remove the kind of punch bowl or in that case monetary stimulus and that could shock markets Who have become highly dependent on that type of support? And that's what people and some are looking at potentially with oil in the fact that The market has been propped up and stabilized around a 40 41 dollar handle in West Texas Intermediate and that is based upon the notion that of these very forceful and highly compliant cuts Opec in itself I believe the statistic is they've been around a hundred and six percent compliant across the board some of those Countries which typically would be Fairly lackluster a compliant to these these compliance quotas like Libya Nigeria for example Iraq have been a little bit better under the kind of watchful eye of their Saudi counterparts And so if you remove this now at this situation when the The kind of economic future still looks uncertain Global growth still although looks more stable now than it did a few weeks ago It's still dependent really on the development of the virus and lots of other factors as well that could quite easily Just destabilize things once again So there's a few people asking the question of if they start to follow the the predetermined kind of flight course If you like of reducing down The toughness of these supply cuts so they could create a downside risk for oil prices But we'll see counteracting this in terms of weekend news though We did have a couple of things Libya National Oil Company declared a force major on all oil exports Barely a day after lifting it essentially what happened here There Libya have restarted some exports on Friday with loading of the oil tanker of Critty bastion at the Sider before Libya's eastern commander Haftar ordered a halt to exports on Saturday night And then separately elsewhere, but within sticking in the Gulf region Saudi Yemen Saudi-led coalition said on Monday intercepted and destroyed four missiles and six explosive drones launched overnight by Houthi forces towards the kingdom And so although this is Not unusual type of behavior in that particular region It continues to be some supportive factors to price to offset this potential at least idea at this point of This taper tantrum in the oil market that's yet to be seen. That's Wednesday that JMC Meeting is happening and despite oil I think this morning is just coming off given the significance of the rally that we had back up During the end of last week. So I don't think there's too much Honestly going on right now That's just a major event happening midweek that you should be mindful of at the moment as long as equities keep holding up and remain Stable that's generally based on this idea about still a degree of positivity about the economic recovery Not as I said with how downbeat the earnings reports are going to be in terms of q2 Well, that's probably going to be a supportive sentiment factor for oil to remain Pretty much locked in into this price activity that we've been seeing over recent weeks really since June Which is a squeeze in on the price around the $41 handle, which has been holding Which is that initial level before the gap down that we had on that failed OPEC meeting at the beginning of March of this year Still with oil it looks like some decision of some type needs to be made because price is getting kind of ever more narrow into this kind of Price pattern, which would be indicative of either a breakout in either direction So this week could be particularly telling for that To be watched and then the other thing that's happening this week. There are a couple of central bank decisions I mean, I think from a case of the BOJ, I think you've also got the BOC That they're not expected to see any real changes the ECB though could be a little bit more interesting But after their over delivery of what we had with the purchase the pandemic emergency purchase program Last meeting is unlikely. They're going to really unveil anything particularly new the real decision All the decisions which will carry most magnitude are really going to happen Probably towards the autumn and we've got a better idea of what does the economy look like at that point in time? And whether or not they need to go one step further or if all things remain on a recovery track Do they need to start kind of talking and issuing forward guidance about the root of an exit? For example, so I don't think the ECB is going to be too exciting However, it this happens on Thursday and that does coincide then with the commencement on the 17th and 18th of European leaders meeting to hammer out the details on their European recovery fund That of course is quite a contentious issue The frugal form continued to be pushing for cuts for the planned recovery package while Spain, Greece and southern members continue to Kind of cool and rally to arms for Eurozone further integration given that they would be the biggest benefit Beneficiaries of such a program So whether or not that happens and that gets delivered could well have Implications then for how much so or not that the ECB have to do and also the type of Parameters around the types of bonds that they're going to buy if the EU In itself is going to be the region's biggest supranational issuer That could be then that Kate could change the composition of the asset purchase scheme at the ECB Probably too early to tell that this month given the timings of things So looking at the calendar Today is very quiet. That's just a couple of speakers to be aware of Feds Williams, but manganin and governor Bailey also speaking even though Bailey is the governor I wouldn't be expecting a great deal there From the UK. You do get the lights UK GDP CPI this week worth keeping an eye on in terms of the other events Non-data wise to account for Tuesday We get the UK's Huawei decision about whether or not to use the 5g network and this comes after quite a renewed amount of Friction between China and the rest of the world generally speaking in the fallout of that Implementation of the Hong Kong security law change We've also then got aside from earnings Yeah, you've got the BOC and the BOJ happening on Wednesday with that JMMC meeting for the for the oil market You also get New York Fed manufacturing Industrial production manufacturing output on Wednesday Thursday we get some Chinese data an update on retail sales industrial output and GDP And of course that will be closely watched alongside the regular initial jobless claims out of the US and US for the Fed and retail sales numbers that'll be alongside the ECB and then on Friday Eurozone CPI housing data coming out of the US and then we get the commencement of the European Council meeting as I just Mentioned so that really is it. I'm not going to go into too much more detail if you did want to read these things with a couple of Supplementary graphics as well which help explain then just check out that macro menu as I mentioned Feel free to leave a comment at all on the video if you have any questions We also have introduced now one of our technology analysts Milan Who's also going to be delivering some content and he just released a video on our YouTube channel in regard to what is Algorithmic trading because I think a lot of people get confused or kind of misty-eyed about what that exactly is And he gives a really nice concise and simple walkthrough of exactly what that is from a technology point of view So check out the YouTube channel don't forget to like and subscribe to the all the content and I'll see you same time tomorrow Thanks very much guys. Have a good week ahead


I'll come to the session in which we'll look at an example that illustrate the concept of filing a single versus filing a joint return, how to compute the taxes for both, and to determine the savings, if any, in comparison filing as a single versus married filing jointly. Let's take a look at this example. John and Carla are engaged and plan to get married. And for this purpose, we're gonna be using the year 2022 tax numbers. John is a full-time student and earned $9,000 from a part-time job. With this income, student loans, savings, and non-taxable scholarship, John is self-supporting. So he can file separately, he's self-supporting. He can get the full standard deduction. For the year, Carla is employed and has wages of $67,100. How much income tax, if any, can Carla save if she and John marry in 2022 and file a joint return? Again, as I mentioned, we're working with year 2022, and those are the standard deduction. We're gonna be assuming they're gonna be taking the standard deduction. This is the standard deduction for a single, $12,950. This is the standard deduction for married filing jointly, $25,900. Let's go ahead and get started. Before we proceed any further, I have a public announcement about my company, farhatlectures.com. Farhat Accounting Lectures is a supplemental, educational tool that's gonna help you with your CPA exam preparation, as well as your accounting courses. My CPA material is aligned with your CPA review course, such as Becker, Roger, Wiley, Gleam, Miles. My accounting courses are aligned with your accounting courses broken down by chapter and topics. My resources consist of lectures, multiple choice questions, true-false questions, as well as exercises. Go ahead, start your free trial today. So let's start to solve this exercise. John makes $9,900. Carla, $67,100. Let's start with John Taxbill. What will be John Taxbill? Well, John's gonna make a has earning of $9,900. Then there's a standard deduction of $12,900, which will wipe out all his taxable income. Therefore, John Taxbill is zero. Why? Because the standard deduction wipe out his tax bill. Carla, $67,100 minus her standard deduction. She's gonna have a taxable income of $54,150. $54,150 falls between $41,775 and $89,075. Therefore, her tax bill will be $4,807.50, plus the amount over $41,775, which is $54,150, minus $41,775, the excess amount, multiply this excess amount by 22%. Therefore, we say her marginal tax rate is 22%. Well, if we do this computation, so $4,807, plus this, the excess amount times 22%, it's gonna give us $2,722.50. Carla's tax bill will be $7,530. So if they file separately, the total tax bill will be $7,530, and John will not have a tax bill. Now, let's work this exercise assuming they file a joint return. Filing a joint return means they combined their income and their total income is $77,000. Then they take the standard deduction. We said they're gonna be taking the standard deduction and that was giving at the first page. Their taxable income will be $51,100, which falls between $19,981,050. Now, what's their tax bill? Their tax bill will be $1,990, plus we're gonna add to that the excess amount over $19,900, the excess amount multiplied by 12%. So 51,100 minus $19,900. This excess amount will be multiplied by 12%. Notice, together they're in a lower tax bracket. Carla by herself was in a 22% tax bracket because we were dealing with a different single. She was in the 22, she fell in the 22 tax bracket based on her income. Together they fall in the 12% tax bracket. So if we do this computation, 1,990 plus the excess amount times 12%, the excess amount over $19,900 times 12% will give us 3,744. If we combine those two, their total tax bill is 5,734. Remember, if each filed separately, they will have a tax bill at 7,530. If the each filed separately is a single, remember John tax bill was zero and Carla was 7,530. Therefore, if they married filing jointly, their tax bill is 5,734, there's a total savings of 1,796. What's the moral of the story? Get married, just kidding. The point is, yes, you do have an advantage if you file married jointly. Now, again, based on the year 2022 and that should be always the case but because the government does favor married filing jointly. But in this recording, what we did is we showed how to compute the tax once again and we learned about the marginal tax rate. For example, as we said, Carla on her own was in the 22% tax bracket. Together, they are in the 12% tax bracket. Now, we could also compute the average tax rate if we choose to 1,000, I'm sorry, for the married filing jointly 5,734 divided by 77,000 and we can find their average tax rate. So, they're in the 12% tax bracket and their average tax rate, as I mentioned in the prior session, will be lower than the marginal and let's see 5,734 divided by 77,000 and it is approximately 7.4%. What should you do now? Go to Farhat Lectures, look at additional resources, lectures, MCQs, true, false, look at the notes. That's gonna help you improve, do better on your CPA exam, enrolled agents exam or in your income tax course. Good luck, study hard and of course, stay safe and get married too.


What is going on guys welcome back to the channel and I do appreciate you being here today I've been doing another destiny to community highlights a video and damn There's some amazing plays today to showcase Now if you guys do enjoy the video and would like to show you support you can by smashing that like button if you have any Amazing clip you'd like featured in one of these videos and shared with the world send it into the email Just a little bit of video just go Guys thanks to everybody who has been submitting hopefully you enjoy the video and hopefully I will see you on that next one Should I open yeah It's gonna be I feel it in me bone you really should not open that yeah, that's the bad one.  I know you give maske for me Hello That's it. Yeah, it's a little bit of it. We still have to save it. It's a woman. Yeah Oh god What else did we come? We didn't need to do all that I got it. I got it. Let's go. Let's go Strength in numbers guardian excellent I love it. Only five minutes left. Do you see that Harry? I just got an exciting job. What? Oh Yes, yes Everyone else picking up See you bad Thank you very much, everybody Oh my god, I got it. Oh my god. Oh my god.  Oh my god. Oh no, you know what I'm standing. You just got a six-man melee My god, they were all over there Synthesized dude six man melee like oh my god Nice May caption power play keep the pressure on you're pulling ahead keep it that way Two for one. Yes, three down The opponents down nexus safely offline and we can use it to recreate golden age tech Think of what we can make and if this information ever becomes a problem I'll hold you personally We didn't have it any other way Oh my god I got all of them Why can his parents have a lot of argument, but he can't I don't understand that You're so stupid aren't you? No Yes Put on Oh Yes Yes The boat Phenomenal!


Baby wakes up with scratches, mom checks nanny cam and sees this. She was hellbent on figuring out who or what was responsible for the scratches on her daughter's body, so she set up a night vision camera.  The footage was blurry but she could still see the shadow. Her heart pounded as she watched him roam around her little girl's room. Joshua Higgins and Heather Braf had been living in Joshua's mother's guesthouse for over a year now with their one-year-old child Lily. They loved the house until one day, they suddenly wanted to run from it. It all began when Heather took her baby out of the crib one morning and found scratches on her face and arms. At first, she didn't think much of the scratches. She knew babies had a tendency to scratch themselves while sleeping. However, when the first set of scratches healed and another set of fresh marks and scratches were found on her daughter's body, she had a feeling something was wrong. The marks didn't look like something her baby could have accidentally done on her own. For many who knew Heather and Joshua, they were seen as living the dream. Their relationship was steady and caring. They lived in a nice home and had a super adorable baby girl. But one day, everything changed. Heather showed her husband the scratches on their baby. She asked him what he thought it was. He speculated that it was just her scratching herself. But Heather didn't buy it. Then one night while Heather slept, she heard weird noises around the house, the squealing of a door, footsteps in the kitchen, and thumps of the floorboards. She presumed it was her husband and went back to bed. But it wasn't. The next day, Heather asked Joshua if he got up last night. She asked him did he go to check on Lily at her nursery. He said he didn't. But she didn't believe him. She asked him if he was sleepwalking again and tentatively questioned him about the scratches on his daughter. In Joshua's mind, she was accusing him of hurting his own daughter. He immediately resented her for asking such a horrible question and stormed out of the room. But Heather was convinced that something weird was happening, so she kept digging, unaware that she was about to discover something so much worse. Paranoia took over as she thought that her husband could be hiding something. But no, she knew him. He wouldn't lie to her. So, if it really wasn't him, then what was it? It couldn't be an animal because she always made sure that all the doors and windows were locked at night. The strange scratches and noises could only mean one thing, someone or something was already inside their home. This had become tense between her and Joshua since the accusations were made at him sleepwalking. She apologized and instead of speculating further, she purchased a baby monitor to overlook the baby's crib. Joshua was still convinced that Lily was scratching herself. But Heather knew that something was wrong. She always made sure that her baby's nails were well trimmed, so it couldn't have been her. Then the CCTV revealed the truth neither of them was ready for. Looking up the night vision camera, she had one mission, to find out who was responsible for the scratches on her daughter's body. She was hellbent on figuring this out.  She saw a figure of a man in Lily's nursery. She couldn't make out who it was through the blurry footage, but she was certain this shadow was a man. Heather's mind went straight to Joshua. He was sleepwalking after all. It was just as she thought. But wait, why hadn't he told her about it? Why was he keeping it a secret? She continued to watch the rest of the footage to find out more. But what she saw next sent a shiver down her spine. What was she looking at? In the grainy video, an adult male walks past her daughter's crib. Lily, aware that someone was in the room, pulls herself up and looks around the room out of curiosity. When the man turned his face toward the camera, Heather finally saw that it was not the man she thought it was. Her heart thudded louder and louder at the realization that this man was a complete stranger. She continued to watch the terrifying recording. The stranger continued to roam around Lily's room. Heather's stomach nodded. Who was this man? She replayed the clip over and over again, especially the part where the man becomes completely transparent as he moves past Lily. An icy chill ran through her body as she thought, ghost. She pulled Lily closer. She had to tell Joshua. They had to get out. After Joshua viewed the footage he said, it was chilling. It was literally a chill down your spine, like that what a factor is this what I just saw. Seeing Lily's face with the scratches was so bizarre and frightening, Heather said. I was crying, what happened to you? I grabbed her jacket and ran over to my mother-in-law's house. Nobody knew what happened. We wondered if she'd scratched herself, but when we put her hands up to the scratches it did not match up. After watching the video, Joshua's stomach nodded in fear, his face pale. He had to get his family out of there as soon as possible. He was completely terrified. Gasping, he ran out the door with Lily and Heather and immediately called the police, who referred him to the Scientific Paranormal Investigations of Michigan. And what they found rattled him even more. Like Priest, co-owner of Scientific Paranormal Investigations of Michigan, immediately sent out a team to investigate the Highland home. But what they discovered only made Heather and Joshua more determined than ever to leave. After reviewing the evidence, they concluded that the main house, and indeed the guest house attached to it, could really be haunted. This wasn't the first strange occurrence in that house. I woke up to get ready for work one morning and it felt like someone was joking me, Heather said in an interview. It shook me to the point where I decided to buy our camera. She hadn't told Joshua about this incident because she knew he wouldn't believe her. There have been times where me and my fiance would wake up in the morning, and I would hear an angry male voice like someone had stubbed their toe, she added. Mike Priest and his team are set to return to the house soon to continue with their Paranormal investigation. He hopes to find exactly what was recorded in Lily's room that night. He explains that their goal will be to replicate the recording or find a logical explanation for the video before calling it Paranormal activity. But Joshua's mother, Chris, who has owned the house for 11 years, may be able to shed some light on who could be haunting the family. I was told when we bought the house's 11 years ago the lady who owned the property died in the main house, Chris said. It's an old farmhouse and according to her niece, she fell down the stairs, broke her hips and laid there for a very long time before she passed away. She said that the guesthouse was built for the lady's brother who was schizophrenic. But Joshua's father, Jim, has another theory. Jim is convinced that the man who is terrorizing Heather and Joshua is a previous tenant of the guesthouse. The gentleman that lived here originally jumped out this window, which is one story down, he explained. Although Heather and Joshua are no closer to finding out who is roaming around their baby's room at night, they know what to do about it. It scares us that it could do something else, Heather said. It's not physically just going after her, it feels like it's going after myself too. This has made us want to leave as soon as possible. This is a spirit. I don't know what its intentions are, but at this point, it's becoming physically harmful. But not everyone agrees. Although the video, released by Heather and Joshua on social media, has become a viral sensation overnight and has chilled many viewers to the bone, there are also some skeptics. Some people do not believe that the figure in the video is an apparition at all and say that what was captured on film is far more likely to have a very simple explanation. Kenny Biddle, a paranormal investigator writes, I would surmise either, Heather and or, Joshua, had been watching television and had reason to get up out of bed. Perhaps go down to the kitchen for a drink slash food or a visit to the bathroom, pause the video and walked across the room not realizing they were being recorded. He continued. At a later, unspecified time, they reviewed the footage and due to a lack of understanding of video cameras, concluded the distorted figure was a ghost. But how does he explain the scratches on Lily? Aside from the technical issues, it is not uncommon for babies to scratch themselves. We know from her statements that, Heather, discovered the scratches after waking the baby up from a nap, Kenny wrote. Then after digging deeper into the story, Kenny discovered something interesting. I'm not sure exactly what the motivation behind these claims is, but I do have my suspicions, he wrote. I went to Heather Broff's Facebook page earlier today and noticed that she posted her first public post since November of 2018. It was a link to a GoFundMe account she had created that day, March 26, 2019, with a goal of $5,000. What was this for? Kenny explained, she was asking for this amount to help her move out of the guest house, citing her daughter's safety from all the paranormal activity as the main reason for the fundraising. Then, with his suspicions alarming, Kenny reached out to Heather directly with a Facebook message. He wanted to find out more about this incident, directly from her. He wrote, Hello, my name is Kenny Biddle, and I've been investigating paranormal claims for the last 20 plus years.  After taking a look at it, I was wondering if there was a longer clip, perhaps footage showing the few minutes leading up to, and including, the clip that was shared on ABC Action News. The clip that has been shared starts with the figure already in motion, and I was hoping to see where it originates. We wonder what her response will be, but what do you think?


This paper examined the spatial variants of urban energy consumption in China using GIS tools and Thiele index. It found that there were significant differences in energy consumption among different provinces, which could be attributed to differences in geography, economic development, and energy sources. Certain regions had higher energy consumption rates, while others had higher efficiency rates. Additionally, certain regions relied heavily on coal, while others relied on cleaner energy sources such as electricity or oil. This spatial variance was further confirmed by Thiele index, which showed that the within-group inequalities were greater than those between groups. As such, it is important to develop regionally targeted policies to reduce energy consumption and improve energy efficiency. This article was authored by Yen Pingkai, Li Shoujiang, Jing Liang, and others.


Hello everyone, wanted to take a minute and talk to you about lighting and how important it is when you're starting your seedlings. Temperature and lighting are probably the most important aspects that you can control when you're starting seedlings at home. If you don't have enough light, you're going to get stretched seedlings that are going to be weak. They're not going to transition well to the outside. Tomatoes, your broccoli, cabbage, those guys are prone to stretching. And so let's just go over some inexpensive, but also some long lived ways that you can control your light when you're starting seedlings. Now I'm on the floor because I wanted to talk about our setup here that we use for our kids in the garden classroom.  We bought them at the local hardware store. You can find them all over the state and all over the country really easily. This is about the most inexpensive way to do lighting for seedlings. To buy the cool white light bulbs that are typically used for our fluorescent light fixtures, they provide more than enough light for our seedlings and you just need to keep them about one to two inches above the seedlings at all times. So as the plants grow, you raise the light, they keep growing, you keep going up. This is a simple and expensive way. If you want to, you can purchase, this is a plant and aquarium fluorescent light bulb. These are called T8s. You can buy these at your stores. I've seen them at some of your larger stores. You can also purchase them online or have them ordered in from your local hardware store. These guys produce a full spectrum of light that plants need. They are more expensive, but they do produce the full spectrum. However, for seedlings, it's the quantity of light, not the quality of light that they need in order to grow, especially since we'll be transitioning them outside. This works great if you have house plants that you want to grow and keep inside year round, but the cool white bulbs for the purposes of starting seedlings work really well. The other option is LED bulbs. Now in the plant world, LED bulbs are relatively new. You can buy grow lights. They tend to be more expensive to start with, but they are longer lived and they use less energy than a fluorescent light bulb. So they may cost more to begin with, but they may cost less over their lifetime just because they last longer. You'll want to make sure that you get an LED bulb that has both red and blue light that encourages your growth, vegetation, and also your encourages flowering. The one concern with fluorescence and LEDs alike is you need to make sure that the plants are getting an even coverage. So with your LEDs, you really need to pay attention and make sure that your light is adequately overlapping. Otherwise, those plants that are between the light bulbs are going to stretch because they aren't getting the light they need. But really any light option that works for you will work well for seedlings. It's just a matter of what you want to spend. Now make sure that your seedlings have light for 14 to 16 hours a day. You can use a timer to make sure that your lights turn on and off as they need. And with good lighting, you can grow, this is a pepper plant, grow strong, healthy seedlings that'll be ready to plant outside as soon as the weather's nice. If you have any questions, please feel free to contact your local extension office. And I hope you learn something about ways to grow seedlings and importance of light with our seedlings. Happy growing.


All right, I think we're live, we got this. All right, hey y'all, good morning, happy Saturday. I'm here in, where am I at, Isabella? My little two month old is right here rocking in the tree tops all day long, hopping in the popping in this thing. I shouldn't have done that. Good morning. I got my keto cream and my coffee. We just broke our intermittent fasting strategies. So I'm gonna talk about that a little bit later, but I wanna help you if you're getting, just getting started right now and you wanna maximize your experience for fat burning and fat loss.  I don't know how else to say that.  I just should not sing. You know, when my family goes to church and they actually ask us not to sing. So you know that you're a bad singer is when they ask you not to sing in church. Like, hey, shapers, please, no singing. No singing, no singing. It's Saturday morning, let's have some fun. Well, I'm super excited.  And it's funny because I'm on a lot of calls and I mean a lot of calls. And it's interesting because there's a lot of confusion out there, but there's a lot of simplicity that people get. Like I talk to people that have great results. You know, I was just on a call to lately lost lost 70 pounds, maintained it almost six years now. And it's completely changed her life, right? But it wasn't always easy, you know? Meaning that she's had mistakes she made along the way and faults she's made along the way.   I want you to live better. I want you to feel better. I want you to maintain it.  Derek, we can talk about it. It's not gonna be a straight road, but I can tell you and I told him the same thing. It's like when you get to the end, those bumps along the way are your biggest things that you get to pass on because there's obstacles that other people are gonna go through too. So Janelle's down four pounds from the IFAS. That's awesome. Janelle, super excited. And I love the IFAS. If you're doing it with us, that's super exciting. Let me know. I want any feedback on that. Make sure you hashtag IFAS when you post it out so we can see the stories come in. But let's talk about maximizing. If you're just getting started with ketones or even using them for a while, a few mistakes that people make. I'm gonna give you some how to do it and then some of the mistakes and then some of the tips that you can do to get better. And if you have questions, bloat is gone. That's a good thing. But if you have some questions, feel free to shoot them out to me and let me help you do that. Now, not everybody that follows me drinks ketones yet. They will. Once you realize what they work, what they are, they will. You want me to hold you? You want me to hold you? All right. She's kind of a film snob. She wants to be on camera. She doesn't wanna be on the sidelines here. Say hi, Isabella, say hi. This is Isabella. She is our fourth child, our third girl and most likely our last baby, most likely. But did you guys know that when she was in Mama's belly that pregnant women actually produce ketones even if they're not on a ketogenic diet for the baby? So it's kind of a cool story. It shows you how powerful this is. And do you know that when she's breastfed? A breastfed baby, which I was not breastfed.  My poor mom, I always blame her for everything. I'm like, mom, it was your fault. It was your fault. I love my mom so much. But you know that breastfed baby is when they drink breast milk. It has a fatty acid called medium chain fatty acids. And that fatty acid actually is digested into the belly and into the liver produces ketones for development of the child. So babies are very much ketogenic and they need ketones for a lot of the positive benefits that we get to have today this way. So it was just pretty cool. So anyway, I just had to say that because it's a little baby but if you want to maximize fat loss, the first thing you want to do is and if you're drinking ketones, that's what you're gonna do. You're gonna drink these first thing in the morning and I would tell people this, if you're really big on going out for a morning walk, what you could do is you could delay this till after the walk and you're basically fasted walking in the morning. It's a strategy used since college. I don't do it anymore because I just don't have time to be honest. I have time, I just hadn't prioritized that time. But anyway, I had to get up early. I prioritize my sleep. But wake up in the morning, you can actually go for a 45, 50 minute walk, fasted, just water, okay? And then after that, you'd have your ketones. But you want to have your ketones first thing in the morning. The reason why is it is they supply a high level of fuel, brain, health, energy, sustained fuel. Think about it as a car. Who wants to be a 1982 Volvo beat up, rusted out Chevrolet? Is it Volvo or Chevrolet? I don't even know. Volvos are not Chevrolet. I'm in Minnesota, there's like the songs like broken down Chevrolet or whatever, rusted. Anyway, do you want to be that or do you want to be a high performance machine? Like a high performance Lamborghini or car, right? Well, would you fuel, would you put fuel in the car? Like, would you, in a Lamborghini, right? You may look or feel like the Chevrolet but start fueling it like a Ferrari if that's probably a Lamborghini, meaning put the high quality fuel in. So by starting your day off, you're starting yourself off with the high quality fuel. You're holding your body and your health to a higher standard. So you're going to get more out of your day. You're going to be able to do more, be more, feel more. Now inside your body, it's doing some cool things.  It's all the things you want in your health. This is going to start doing on the inside. Therefore, you can do all the things on the outside more appropriately or better for what your results are. So first thing in the morning, you have this. Now I am drinking coffee. If you'd like to enjoy your coffee, please do. When I do my fasting programs, I don't drink my coffee in the morning. I actually drink my coffee in the afternoon and I put keto cream in my coffee. Now if you drink your coffee black, fine, you can have it anytime you want. But I have keto cream and I actually have a splash of heavy whipping cream in here and I do that in the mornings and that's okay too. You can definitely do that. So I'm having my coffee, my keto cream, and I'm going to have my ketones right after, it's early here. You can have your ketones first and have your coffee after, it doesn't matter. Then what you're going to do, this is the secret right here. Wait until you're hungry to eat. Most people will naturally start to intermittent fast with ketones. And you might have your first meal at 10 a.m., 11 a.m., 12, one, two, or something like that. So that'll right off the bat is going to provide you the ability to reduce your calories. And then now you don't have, you have more time freedom. You don't have to worry about food so much. You're not going to have the cravings and the hunger. I cut off the tip of my thumb. Look at that. And she keeps grabbing just that tip. It's funny how that works out. And she only wants thumb, I'm like, stop it. Okay, so then, so here's the other option. And then I'm going to talk about food in a second because food is going to play a role in this, y'all. It really does. And then the afternoon, you have the optional second ketone in the afternoon. Optional second ketones in the afternoon. So I have two a day. Sometimes I have three because I want optimal performance, right? I want to perform the best I can. So in the afternoon, I have a second ketone around two, three o'clock, four o'clock. It doesn't matter. One o'clock, two o'clock, three o'clock, rock. Any time in there is fine. I got the singing bug going on right now. This is so good. Hold on a second. You all enjoying this? I know I'm being goofy. I tend to get pretty intense in my coaching and I just want to yell at people, but I'm trying to keep it light and Saturday morning. I will be doing a huge live here in a little bit. So stay tuned and I'll be in the drink ketones daily group. So the second option in the afternoon. And that's really as simple as that. A couple tips I'll give you in a minute, but as for food, what you want to do is if you want to maximize fat burning, you want to do a few things. One, you want to reduce your carbohydrates, especially if you want to improve the ketogenic effect. Now you have to decrease your calories. If you want to burn fat, so think of this way. If your basic metabolic rate is 1,500 calories, you don't need to know all this, especially when you get started. You can check in every once in a while, but you don't need to do this on a daily basis. I'm not a big fan of tracking and counting everything. I'm a big fan of results and teaching psychological mental goodness so you can sustain them. Using the scale every day, if you weigh yourself every day, throw it away, that's a tip. You will fail. I'm just telling you. I've never met a person to this day that weighs themselves every day that is free of like they live the life they want to do, feel good, happy, enjoy life, and are comfortable in their own skin. Haven't met that person yet. If you're that person, let me know. I love to meet you, but I don't see that person. So give it a scale. But as for food, what you want to do is you want to prioritize protein. Ladies, 50 to 100 grams of protein a day. I'm giving you as low as 50 because you're different sized people. The bigger you are, the more protein you're going to need. That means the more muscle mass you have, the more calories you're going to need anyway, right? So you're going to need a little bit more protein. So think about this as like a deck of cards of protein. So if you take a deck of cards of salmon, chicken, fish, and this is a ballpark, it's going to be somewhere between 20 and 20, let's say 20 and 30 grams of protein depends on the size of your deck of cards, but 25 grams, we'll just call it 25 grams. So two decks of cards of protein a day, minimum. Two decks of cards of protein a day, minimum. Now, you need that. Why is that's going to have a huge impact on some nutrients?  It's got so many, the iron, I mean, there's so many positive benefits to having that protein. Now, if you're more active, physically active, or if you're bigger, you might need to push it up towards the 100 or even as high as 150 grams for really more competitive women that are into fitness. So I do not recommend a lot of protein shakes outside of proven shakes. Ours are designed specifically to be low calorie, low impact on your body, low insulin response or no insulin response, but also with amino acid to help uptake. So I'm okay with that one, but you can use protein shakes, but just sparingly, meaning that they should be a gap filler when you're just busy, right? But they shouldn't be a foundation of your health. It needs to be real protein, okay? Carol and Erin just got a whole visitation on that. So last thing with food is you want to go low carb.  This is a mistake all people make is that they go high fat. The ketogenic diet is a high fat diet. 99% of you out there will never follow it well or long-term or consistently, meaning you have slip-ups.  Now, if it's medical induced ketosis, then you're going to be very high fat and you don't get a chance to slip up. You have no options. You've got to do it right. But for most people, they have the wiggle room to be able to kind of like, I'm going to take today off.  So you want to really focus on low carb living. So most people, you're going to want to shoot for less than 50 grams of carbs a day. For really maximizing fat burning, it's typically going to be under 30 grams of carbs a day and even as low as 20 grams. Now, I am going to say net carbs, meaning that if you have fiber in there, you can subtract it out. There's a lot of, and there you can, I mean, there's, I can debate it all. But what I found 20 years, I think you're pretty safe. So net carbs is basically the amount of carbs minus your fiber. Now, once again, I don't want you to measure everything. What I want you to do is start to understand that you're going to prioritize protein and then you're going to choose low carb vegetable options. Most fruit are going to be out, berries. Yes, I'm all about berries are fine. Truth is you can have a mini sneakers bar and you can still do this really, really well. True story, you could, probably not ideal because it's not optimal nutrients, right? But you could definitely do that and still get results on maximizing fat loss. So you're going to prioritize protein and then men 150 grams of protein, probably minimum a day and then up from there. That's probably a safe bet. You could go a little lower on a few days. On some of your fasting days, you can go less protein but as a consistent overall long-term process, that's about what you'd want every day. So if you're eating one meal a day, that's a lot at one time. So I recommend most men to eat at least twice a day. Not, and if you're doing some of our fasting stuff then you can take those days off but the majority of your days you should be consuming at least that much protein. So low carb vegetables. So you're looking at broccoli, asparagus, rutabagas, Brussels sprouts, rutabagas, I don't mean that. Turnip roots, you're going to say cauliflower, spinnages, your leafy greens. These are the vegetables and what you want to do is you want to cook those with some level of fat. If it's duck fat, if it's a little bit of butter, if it's olive oil, if it's avocado or avocado oil, you're going to want to cook it in those. And so that's to give you some extra nutrients, fatty acids, help you feel satiated and satisfied. Like the eating of maximizing fat loss is boring. I'm just going to tell you. There isn't all these fun keto desserts and keto things. They're fun for marketing and they're fun for talking about it and they're like, they're a treat though. They're not your food, right? Here's the problem with food. It's boring, it's basic. And so what we have to do is teach you how to eat. The majority of your day has just got to be kind of boring. There's nothing bland, it can taste great, but it meaning that it's not like you got to get away from I've got to try to make pizza today and this today and that day. No, it's protein, vegetables and some fat. That's all it really is. Get creative, get creative, have fun with it. Do I use spaghetti sauce? Yes, the spaghetti sauce, super low carb. It's low carb but it's not super low carb, right? There's lower carb stuff. So I just want you to be clear that those are the foundations what you do and then you do want to add in a keto friendly or a low carb dessert from time to time. That should be a time to time. Do you want to add in? So here's a few of the mistakes that people make is they don't hydrate well. So I'm a huge fan of electrolytes. I think everybody should be using these right here. These are formulated specifically for our product. So, but they have a lot of potassium in them. They're really good for balancing out, helping with water retention, hydration. Hydration is huge. That's a big tip. You need to have plenty of water but it's not just water, it's what's in your water. Number two big tip is you gotta move your body.  An object in motion wants to stay in motion. So when we metabolize fat, it basically gets eliminated out of our body in very unique ways. Urine, sweat, breath through breathing. So exercise helps us, water helps us urine more. Let's do that. Exercise helps us breathe more and sweat more. So these are gonna be things that people are going, you know, and it's not just about exercise, right? If you combine this of superior fuel source with a strategy of eating that's about performance and health that's high quality proteins, high quality vegetables, that's performance and health, okay? You don't need a ton of carbohydrates to perform better unless you're a very specific athlete and you have Olympic gold medal around your neck or a pro athlete.  Now they're fun and they taste great. I get it, I do, I do, I get it. But that's not gonna get you the results you want, okay? And then another big, what is going on? Should I give you back to mama? I think it's probably time. It's probably time, isn't it? And I did not bring her on here just for sympathy and just for, you know, I'm just kidding. She's cute, isn't she?  So intermittent fasting is a natural process of what we teach, but sometimes we wanna accelerate that through some healthy ways of doing it. And it's really important to do it healthily. That's the word I just made up. So one more big mistake people make is they once again, the scale, they look at the scale and they put an expectation that the scale needs to change really fast.  It's not hard. What happens is that your system, most likely if you're above the age of 40 and 70% of people above the age of 40 in our country at least, most countries, yeah, most countries at least. I'm gonna walk and talk here guys.  You have to turn that switch back on. If you do not turn that switch back on and ketones turn the switch back on, we just don't know when. My sister was eight weeks. Eight weeks she did not lose really any weight. She's down at 100 pounds now. Why she didn't quit? I don't know. Honestly, I don't. I think because everybody else was talking about, she had other benefits. She had energy and she started sleeping better. Other things, but that's not what she wanted, right? She didn't quit. She thought about it a lot of times. I had to talk her off the ledge a few times and she's down 100 pounds now. And what happened was is her metabolic switch had to be turned back on. So if you don't look at this as a year long journey, you're going to probably sabotage yourself because you're going to make mistakes.  And then it's like two weeks later, you start eating like you used to. That's okay. That's like check. I realize I still go back to my old habit. I have to create a new one. So this plan is about how to train you to become a better version of yourself. We're going to provide the fuel sources, the number one fuel source in the world to help you live better. We're giving you all that. Now it's time for you to make the changes, right? To move more, start just walking more. It doesn't have to be a lot. It just has to be starting and keep going. And to me, this is the most important lesson and a way to do that, a way to stay committed is to stay committed and a part of a community. So plug into these lives, plug into our team, plug into our community. Because guess what? We're changing our lives. I just got off the car 70 pounds, six years.  And she says that, you know, prove it changed my life and these ketones are amazing. I go, you change your life because you kept going when it wasn't always easy and you kept going when things were sideways. There isn't a plan in the world. I'm going to stand behind this 100%. There is not a plan in the world that's better than this at all, not even a little bit. There's nobody out there that has a superior fuel source to start your day. So you have that. There's nothing out there that's teaching you, we want you to eat food and real food and high quality food. We don't want to give you fake food or shakes that are going to ultimately mess you up later.   We want to give you a community of people that have had ups and downs along the way. So stay with us, plug into us and know that it's not going to be perfect. It's not going to be just, I magically lost all my weight and nothing, everything was perfect and easy. Nothing comes that way. Nothing, no relationship.  I get it.  But yet I love them. It's not perfect if that makes any sense. Same thing in this journey, but just know you're on the right path and right journey. So I just say all that. I struggle with drinking any water. Denise, that water is so important. What happens with water? This is a couple of things with water. Barbara, I'll get to your question in a second. So with water, the mistake is a few things. One, I met my wife and I told her, I want our kids to like live in the, like I want to jump, 14 years old, I want to dump them in the woods and for two weeks and let them survive. And part of it is like, if you didn't have anything else in that, I mean, if you're lived in the woods right now and you're completely nothing available and you're trying to survive, you would do anything to get water. Instinctively, your body wants water, like it does. We just tricked it and trained it to not drink water and or we filter our water. So Denise, if you have a high filtered water, maybe you need more salt. Put some salt in your water and see if you like it. Put minerals in your water and see if it tastes better. Put the electrolytes in your water and see if it tastes better. That's number one. Number two, especially like reverse osmosis is dangerous and bottled water, I think is just mostly if it's crap and dangerous, like dangerous. I don't think it's good for us. I think it actually causes people more. I'm not the bottle, but water itself bottles another whole topic. So you got to set a goal and a standard for yourself and that's what you need to do. And so find a way to do that, okay? What's up, Ange? Nice to see you. I'm on a rant right now. I hope you guys are all appreciating this. So I hope that comes down to, so in the morning, first thing you should do is have eight ounces of water or six ounces of water. Don't drown yourself. The other thing about water is, I want people to keep in mind is most people need more, but we don't know how much. But the number of, how much water is, it doesn't exist. If you're keto or drinking ketones, you'll need more. The other thing is, is you drink it in our product anyway, because ketones are a diuretic, so you need to make sure you stay hydrated. So you're drinking our product in water, which is awesome. But we don't know what it is. If people say it's half your body weight in ounces, well, if you're 600 pounds, that's 300 ounces a day, that's too much, right? But and if you're 90 pounds and you're only having 45 ounces a day, that might not be enough. So we don't know for sure. Kathy Berry just said she has to have a mission on water. Yeah, and one of the things you can do is just get a cup, let's say that you're, and don't rush to the end, just rush, just set a higher standard.   All right, I got a question up here. I'm gonna go too quick here, one second. Question for you, Dustin. Barbara says, I have a question. I'm down about 14 to a size 10, but I've not lost one pound in seven months of drinking ketones. Why does the scale not move?  Number one, scale is not serving you at all, but it's called a plateau. When people plateau, why do people plateau? So there's a few things. Number one reason people plateau is they stop doing, now this is a trick here, this is psychology again. 90% of what we do is psychology, it's not physiological, we convince ourselves something else. So I always ask people, are you doing what you did when you first got started? They're yes, exactly, and it never is, right? Also, you're not the same person you were when you got started, so things have to change, right? So you have both. So I would say, I don't know if Carol said that, asked that question. If you plateaued, what I recommend is a few things, or Barbara, if you plateaued, recommend a few things.   Are you eating enough food? What happens sometimes is when people get on our journey is they get competitively trying to cut food out. They're like proud of themselves for not eating, right? And it's only the people that have been doing it for a while. People that are new, it's not that for them because they're just trying to learn how not to eat, right? Or cut down on their calories. But some people get competitive at that. So are you getting in, Barbara, are you having 50 to 100 grams of protein a day? Okay, that's number one. If that is true, I would say, are you moving your body? You're not the same body anymore. Are you moving your body? Are you physically moving right now? What's your exercise look like? Are you going for a walk? So are you doing some type of physical exercise? Your body, you're down a lot. Your body's changed a lot, but you have to start using it, right? Because it is changing. And it's energetically, you're gonna make up some differences. So I would say, number two, if you're plateaued, are you moving your body? Are you physically moving? Doesn't mean you have to go beat yourself at the gym, but you gotta start increasing your activity levels, okay? That's number two. Number three, I would say, throw the way at them scale. The scale itself, if you weigh yourself and you're not getting the results that you want, actually causes a cortisol, stress hormone release. That stress hormone actually keeps it more prone to gaining weight, or at least not losing it. So the scale is not serving you at all. Focus on your physique, focus on the mirror, focus on you. Mental health is huge, it's really important. I want you to look in the mirror and go, damn, I look sexy.  But if you constantly look in the mirror and you constantly see something you don't like, guess what you're gonna find what you're looking for? If you keep finding something you don't like, you're gonna, it's gonna keep showing up in your life. Now I'm not gonna get into the quantum world and the quantum physics world and all that stuff, a law of attraction, but it's real and it's there. And I'll tell you why. My wife, she literally woke up one morning, she's like, and she looked smoking hot and she's like, I feel good. Ah, for what, my wife doesn't even weigh herself for whatever reason, she weighed herself. And she just, she was like three pounds up or something. And instantaneously, her energy shift didn't change. I mean, she did, you could see it in her. She noticed it, we both noticed it. I did a live later that day talking about the scale. Well, she runs down and she's like, oh my God, my cycle, I just started, my cycle just started. Of course she gained weight. Her hormones and her body had shifted. It's actually important for that function, right? The point is, and then it happened again for her when we were pregnant with her. She was trying to, she was leaning out after her last baby and she's getting all back in shape, everything else. And she's committed, going through her journey. And then she's like, I'm not losing weight.  And then she was pregnant, right? Good thing she wasn't losing weight. I think she was starting plateauing and gaining weight. My point is you might not be pregnant, you might not be going through your cycle, but I'm telling you what, the scale isn't serving you right now, focus on performance, okay? And that's my next tip. If you wanna break a plateau, focus on performance. I'll post it today or tomorrow.  I have a performance evaluation. Like, can you walk faster? Can you hold a plank longer? Can you perform better in your life? Why does that matter? Is that's created a new standard for yourself to live by. And if that's the case, your body will transform. It's just how it works. So the scale is such a, it's a measurement and it's not all bad, but for the most part, it shouldn't be the only measurement and definitely not one that you use all the time. So it should be something that you can use once a month, I'm fine with, but you gotta focus on those other things. Outside of that, that's really, I would say, and if you haven't done our IFAST with us, come to our IFAST with us, but only do the IFAST.  So I would say take a week at your protein levels up and then come do an IFAST with us and accelerate. And that will work really, really well to break those plateaus. I hope that helps. But remember, this is a performance product. It helps you perform better. When it comes to weight loss and plateaus has to do with your lifestyle choices. We gotta make a change in your choice. You're performing better. Your life is better. Your cells are working better. What are you gonna, what do we gotta get you to do to make the big changes? So usually people rely on the product to fix everything. And I'm not saying you do, but that's the mistake people make. And then unfortunately, I think it's not working. Just not true. It works great. It's an amazing product. We do have our coaching call in a minute. I got to get going down here. I've been using a string. I'm doing my waist measurements that way. A little eight weeks. Yeah, I mean, the thing is, is you should only measure once. I mean, you can measure the first couple of weeks a little more often. You should only measure about once a month. The body doesn't, you know, the recommendation is two point, no more than 2.2 pounds a week, right? That's like eight to 10 pounds a month. Like most people, I mean, if they don't lose 30 pounds in the first month, they're disappointed. Like it's just our expectations have gotten really skewed.  But long term, you gotta look at the journey rather than the destination right away. So all right, y'all with that said and done, drink your ketones daily, fast regularly, and eat high quality foods. Move your body more, drink plenty of water. I mean, that part is simple. The question is, is why do we keep stop doing it? Is our life, right? So surround yourself with the people, community, these lives, zooms, local people in your community that are going for better. And know that you're not gonna be perfect. Know that you're gonna have a margarita from time to time. Know that you're gonna have a happy birthday cake. We're doing keto cake today because my brother-in-law's birthday, but that's okay. But I don't eat cake all the time and it's not always keto. Does that make any sense? But the majority of my life is, and this is not about me, but the majority of the time I found the place that I should be. That's the 80-20 rule. It's just that 80-20 looks different for every single person. You gotta find your 80-20. So with that said and done, I gotta put this little one down. She's gonna take a nap and y'all have an awesome Saturday. Cheers.


The National Chairman of the African Democratic Congress, ADC, Professor Raaf O'Keeh, also has accused Open State Governor Dakhbor Abiyadu of using the Labour Party to fire lawsuits which nullified the primary elections of the party in the state. Also specifically accused Abiyadu of funding the former Acting National Public Secretary of L.P. Abayomi Arabambitu to add the chances of the ADC at the 2023 polls. He vowed that a party would resist all attempts by the governor and his cohorts. To think that they can manipulate the systems or, what do you call it, carry ballot boxes. I like I said they would not allow that and that's why they introduced the papers so that on the view of the election it's only people who come out to vote that their votes will come. And I'm sure the National Labour Assistant will also stop them. You want to contest election go and face the electorates.