And we are back here on the Falcons audible presented by AT&T. I'm Derek Rackley. He's Dave Archer No DJ Shockley this week, but he will be back in studio with us next week to break down all things Atlanta Falcons And by the way, thanks for joining us on Atlanta Falcons comm YouTube Spotify itunes or wherever you end up getting your podcasts We're gonna jump right into it first. Let's talk about what we're gonna be all the rundown the agenda for today, Dave Quick reactions like we do pretty much every week to the game last weekend against Buffalo Of course, Atlanta Falcons come up short 29 to 15 One topic that I didn't think we'd ever get the chance to discuss in Matt Ryan and taunting Yeah, we'll dive into that a little bit more Falcons defense continues to take the football away. Are they becoming an elite defensive turnover unit? We'll discuss that current status and lasting impression of this team as we do know Unfortunately, the Falcons were officially eliminated from postseason contention And then we will talk about whether or not the Falcons will ruin the new year for the New Orleans Saints If there's one thing that you can have at the end of the season arch Especially when you're eliminated from the playoffs, it's a game against the Saints, right? Because it's like there's no reason to try to give the guys Motivation to get up they'll get up for the Saints game. No matter what's going on Yeah, you can bet these two fan bases will be jacked up too as well If we get an opportunity to leave a dead fish in their back seat is what I'm talking about. Oh, yeah That's really kind of a little stank face Dead fish in the back seat. All right before we get to the Saints Let's talk about last weekend arch you were there first of all before we get into quick reactions Let me just ask you this question Tell me about the conditions for the people that were watching it on television.  Yeah, it was chilly it was chilly I think we saw it from the past catchers right especially with some of the balls thrown on both sides We're having a tough time squeezing the ball with the fingers that came it kind of gave you an idea that if you had some of your Smaller appendages were were affected by the weather the snow on the field Was a little bit choppy was probably about an inch on the field. So that wasn't significant It looked like footing was okay. It didn't look like it was it was severe in any way I walked around the field it didn't seem like it was that big a deal But it was there was a wind that always blows in Buffalo I know you've been up there that kind of swirls around that stadium and the wind is cold That wind feels like it's blown off a glacier Yeah, so that if there wasn't any wind it kind of was that 29 30 degree day But with the wind blowing that changed the dynamics were we're watching the game and it's interesting You probably played up there I actually played in Buffalo that I remember one time arch and I can't remember if you were on the call at that But we played him the first game of the year it was like 87 degrees and somehow in eight years in the NFL I escaped having to go to Buffalo with conditions like last Sunday or lake effect snow I was trying to describe to my daughter what lake effect snow is and Buffalo and how nasty it can be was not like that last weekend But let's talk about what are your quick reactions to what happened in the game last weekend Atlanta Falcons Looked like they were in a driver's seat and then things just kind of fell off in the second half Yeah, I thought that there were there were it was an ebb and flow game much like a lot of the falcon games have been this year Where there's been a big swing in things opening kickoff you got an opportunity To potentially fall in the football at the one-yard line. I thought we missed an opportunity Look like Michael Walker might have a chance to recover it there on that on that on that initial Opportunity from a special team standpoint Avery Williams gets to hit ball in the end zone you get the safety So excellent job of providing a little bit of momentum to start the game And then it kind of didn't really go anywhere and and they started to get a little bit of foothold By the way, Josh Allen can spin the football dude could throw it. He made some throws in the wind that were mind-boggling But what jumped out to me was the defense's resilience against a pretty formidable Offensive unit and it played really well coming in They were able to kind of keep that same momentum of been been been but don't break and they got a turnover down They're late in the first half with the with the Duran Harmon interception three consecutive takeaways I know we're gonna talk about that So I thought that that that mentality seems to be kind of taking shape a little bit like to be a little bit more Resistant against the run, which we were not. Yeah on the offensive side of the ball It's still kind of a mixed bag for me You'll get moments where you run the ball with a lot of effectiveness and then you'll play action off of it But then if you're forced to throw it We don't seem to be able to protect consistently. Yeah, and so the consistency on the offense is not there yet And so those are my takeaway the thing that you do get in Arthur Smith, and this is read this is Resounding these guys play for 60 minutes. Yeah, it's not one of these kind of deals. We're all here. We go. We're done No, they play you to the wall all the way through and If the thing hadn't happened to Ryan and we got the touchdown there Which you thought you got a one-score game of about seven minutes to go in the game and I think buffalo is in a real Dogfight down the stretch. Yeah, I mean we'll get into that again as well And it's it's interesting to me Dave because you get three turnovers playing on the road in bad conditions And you're thinking as a visiting team that sets up pretty well for you Then you and I wouldn't say then you but rewind back to the opening play where they're able to get the safety And get the football back right away So there's a lot of moments that you can point to that sets up perfectly for a visiting team To go get a victory, right? But the things that kind of stick out to me other than some of the missed opportunities you talked about third down conversions one Red zone conversions one it's gonna be hard to win in the National Football League when you can't extend drives And you can't punch it in in the red zone and look I know this is Atlanta Falcons audible But you bring up a good point Dave about Josh Allen though I didn't get a chance to watch him much this year But after watching that game that kids compete level is impressive And we talked about the the difficulties Atlanta has at times slowing down a running quarterback Well, he's not only a running quarterback, but he runs with physicality I mean there was the stiff arm that he had I can't remember exactly who it was on that a fallow That was that was pretty impressive defensive end outside left pass rusher that a quarterback is Stiff arm rings. That's probably a moment that he's not gonna want to watch on the tape But his ability to run the ball but like his compete level that's just what stuck out to me It wasn't so much that oh nice job picking up the first down It's just his mentality is like we're not gonna end this drive like we're gonna pick up a first down Not to say that we need to be like that that Matt Ryan needs to be like that That's not his game But that's one thing that I came away with is that his compete level is pretty strong And I I have a better appreciation for him as a starting quarterback in the NFL This episode in part brought to you by the Home Depot everything you need for your next home improvement project is just a tap away on the Home Depot app The Home Depot app digital toolbox gives you access to how-to guides project calculators and image search So you'll know exactly what you need to pick up with the tap of the finger You can rent and reserve the right tools for the job Also browse through millions of items from top brands that you can have delivered right to your door Whatever your project find exactly what you need with the Home Depot app download the Home Depot app today So Dave you kind of talked about it Matt Ryan huge turning point in a game scrambles Looks as if he gets into the end zone for a touchdown the play gets reviewed However, there's a taunting penalty on it which was likely just gonna end up being on the kick Play gets reviewed knee is down short of the goal line So instead of touchdown and we'll just mark it off on the extra point It gets moved back and no touchdown and of course Atlanta does not end up taking advantage Talk us through like what was going through your mind in that whole scenario Well, the first part of it is you think Matt makes a play it gets in the end zone Certainly look like it and in my thought on the rule was if he goes forward He's a runner if he doesn't slide. He's not giving himself up. He's just diving That he has to be touched down That's not the rule. It doesn't matter whether you're quarterback or a runner if you physically give yourself up Which he essentially was going to the ground Then you mark the ball where his knee touches the ground and so the mark was correct at the one half yard line, okay? Matt thinks he scores. Well, Jordan Poyer comes over and spears him as he's in the end zone Ryan gets up spikes the ball in his face. It's a taunting by the definition of the rule It's a time he spiked the ball right in his face and yelled at him official was standing right there He flagged it The problem with that is is he misses the other call? The other call is the illegal hit on a player that had given themselves up I don't care if it's a running back wide receiver Then if you give yourself up like that you can as a defender go to the ground and spear them in the back That's a personal foul penalty. So what should have happened there is Ryan still gets the penalty But the personal foul penalty they're both dead ball fouls They offset one another you go with the play and the play is on the one-foot line third and goal right instead They missed the hit on Ryan. They flag Ryan for for the The whatever you call it taunting the taunting or whatever it is and they move him back now They move the back. It's now third and goal from the 16-yard line And so that changes everything try to take a couple shots in the end zone It didn't work out. So completely blown situation there by the official They got the first and the third part of it They missed the middle part of it which would have been the roughing call on Ryan as it turns out That was a big point in the game. I don't know if that I don't think that was the turning point in the game Okay, we were talking turning points in games I thought the takeaway by foyer looking at the start of the first half yeah, or second half Yeah, the third consecutive turn over by Josh Allen If you turn that into point you score now you've scored anywhere from 16 to 20 points on three consecutive takeaways Yeah, you have seized control of the game and now Buffalo's reeling a little bit now They might come back and score But you're talking about jockeying down to the end and a one-score maybe a one Field goal type football game. I thought that was a key moment for me was not cashing in the foyer looking at Interception to start the second half Yeah, and go and going back to the taunting penalty on Matt like I know there's probably a lot of people that were thinking as soon as it happened Oh like that can't happen Matt can't do that's just a reaction from a competitor that got into the end zone That was frustrated that somebody hit him and he just got up and I'm sure he was like, you know Bam I got into the end zone type thing and maybe he was looking at him Yeah, you're right the letter of the rule it was the right call, but To what kind of how I started that the podcast is I never thought we'd be thinking about Matt Ryan getting a taunting penalty that ends up Like you said maybe doesn't change the complexion of the game But surely would have helped if they would have got seven points in that situation so to me That's just a reaction from a competitor Dave. That's not something where it's like dude He's got to be better in his head or something like that Well, I agree to it with you to a certain extent, but he can't do that Yeah, you can't let it happen. I get what you're talking about. I completely concur I've been in that situation. I've actually been flagged. I was actually thrown out of a game because I hit a guy because he hit me illegally in a game so I Understand the emotional part of it. The problem is is you hurt your team Yeah, okay, and and regardless of whether the officials blew it, which they did they blew the call You can't you can't let that happen. Just like you we'd say It about any other player and so even though Ryan is not the guy you'd put on the picture of A guy that's going to do those kind of things that's going to taunt somebody He apply it applies to him just like it would to Richie Grant Defensive line if you hit a guy out of bounds or got pissed at somebody and hit took a shot at somebody you can't let that Happen. Yeah, exactly. So you're right It was missed opportunities and and kind of moving forward here Dave We talked a little bit about these these turnovers and I guess Here's the thing as a former player and Dave I'm sure you're probably this this way as well when you come away from a loss There's only so much that you can talk about positives, right? Because at the end of the day you're get paid to win games, right? Coaches get paid to coach games and win owners want to win, right? That's just the name of the NFL But you do have to kind of find a silver lining here and there and so let's talk about this. I mean Yes, they the Falcons ended up losing Maybe they're still kind of middle of the row when you talk about defense and statistics and takeaways and all that stuff But they've shown a trend at the end of the season that when they get the opportunity to get their hands on the football They're taking advantage of it because it could be a lot worse These could be balls that are going right to defense suppliers and how many times do we see it? Bam touches the hands straight to the ground missed opportunity huge But as far as making those takeaways How are you feeling as far as the identity of this defense becoming a takeaway defense? Yeah, the ball awareness is huge with this team. What 12 consecutive games now they've taken a football away And that goes a long way. I mean, what are the what are the some of the statistics? A couple of statistics that coaches point to they talk about red zone offense defense They talk about third down offense defense. They talk about takeaways. They talk about take Can we get takeaways take care of the football? Yep. Atlanta's taking the football away at a really nice clip And what it tells you is the ball awareness. They have whether they're in zone coverage The aj hrl interception at the end of the first half where he dives intercepts the football The ability of foyer luikin to mirror the quarterback as he's trying to get out of the pocket elevate Bat the ball in diran harman to catch the tip ball. How many times do we have we've seen you and our both offensive guys You look over the defense you guys are working on the tip drill keeping the ball alive tipping it in the air The ball awareness on this team is uncanny. It's one of those things is that it's hard to teach Teams, it's hard to teach players But when they when turnovers start to come it becomes a bit of infectious where you begin to expect it You're being looking for it. I think they have that kind of awareness that bodes well that moves forward That carries with you into the offseason and into next year because it it is it's one of those It's one of those confidence It's one of those belief mechanisms if you will that Every level of this defense whether you're a defensive lineman linebacker secondary You go into a game and you're like we're going to get the football Because we've shown that we're going to do and in foyer luikin and and i'll say this about him He's kind of your more typical like middle linebacker thicker bigger pad guy like You'd think that deon jones would be the guy that's that's that's much more graceful But foyer for a big thick linebacker has shown some really good hands like i've Seen so many times in my career the ball goes right to these big middle linebackers And they're just not ready for it and it hits their hands and drops to the ground What do they always say that's the reason why they play on defense, right? But it's impressive to me because you're right, dave And we don't know what the roster is going to look like next year We don't know who's going to be back But if that's the identity if that's the belief if that's the confidence that this personnel grouping has That's a good thing to come for this unit. They're going to they're going to look back and they're going to say guys Just like we did in 2021. You saw how we took the football away. We need to do that again to start 2022 Whatever it may be those are things that can be talked about in a locker room They can be talked about right before you take the field for a game next year Because guys remember it and they have confidence that they're going to make a play So very encouraging even coming up with a loss that they're coming away with interceptions Still minus three in a turnover margin that generally not going to get it done for you in a grand scheme of things But the defense doing what they need to do to be an elite turnover unit So dave, let's kind of take a little step back here and let's look at The atlanta falcons. They still have one game to play, but So now we basically have a resume. We've got a almost a whole season under our belt What is what's to this point? What's your lasting impression of this team that you've seen in the first year under terry font? No and arthur smith they compete for 60 minutes. Yeah, I think that that's the thing that jumps out at you And and does that make me warm and fuzzy all over? No, but it wins do Um, does it equate the wins? You hear the adage culture you hear the adage of you know, we got to change Who we are and and what we think of one another part of that has to do with the turnovers I think that becomes an expectation that the defensive players have we expect to get turnovers We're going to create turnovers. That's something that carries over But I think your mentality of playing 60 minutes and knowing you and I are told it all the time by coaches And i'm sure fans have heard at times There's four or five plays maybe six plays in a game. They're going to dictate how the game will play out Well, if I play for 60 minutes, I'm going to be in pretty good position to make those plays when they come If you've got a team that's a little bit lackadaisical that doesn't play necessarily the third quarter very well Or or whatever it might be Then they miss out on maybe an opportunity to that might sway the tide or move the game in your direction I don't think this team will miss that now You know, there's a lot of work to do from a talent standpoint to to build this roster up a little bit more talent wise in a lot of different areas But the competitive part of it. You mentioned about josh allen this team competes And I think that's not you think well, they're pro football players. They should compete. That's not always built into the dna It's not always played with a lot of guys and and so this team competes and I think that's the thing it jumps out at me Yeah, it's uh, it's definitely another positive moving forward Because you're right There's certain times that you can watch a game or you can watch it on tape and you can say They gave up like they threw in the towel. They were done They stopped competing and I think that's a really good point and that's that's something that you know If any of those guys end up listening to this like that might be one of the better compliments that you can get Yeah, there's only certain things that you can do from an athletic standpoint You might not be able to jump over 48 inch box jump. You might not be able to run a 4 3 5 40 But if you can compete like it's all that the coaches always tell you you can control one thing It's your effort and your attitude right and that's what they're doing right now And and I wanted to kind of piggyback and go ask you this is kind of off script. They've there's been so many Moving roster things this year with covet right reserve covet list guys getting elevated guys coming back down The one thing that I would say that kind of goes back to your compete level is it's this season has provided So many opportunities for guys to get playing time that that normally would not play and I think Part of the reason why you're seeing that compete level is the guys that are getting a chance to play Understand that they may not get another game. They may not get another season So they're out there going and they're playing their hardest to try to earn Space to try to earn time on the field and so yeah, there you can look at the negative side of it Is that the covet reserve list is taking your stars and they can't play and this that obviously that's uncontrollable But you're getting some guys up there that are competing their tails off because they don't know when they're going to get a chance to play Again, I think it also a rack and I couldn't agree with you more. I think it also accentuates Excuse me What terry font know has done in in acquiring guys in season that's not easy to do now Especially with the expanded practice rosters and all that kind of stuff It's not like I just walking around the street. It's not a guy driving a ups truck That'd be should be playing a three technique in your defensive line. It just doesn't happen So how do you find these guys? terry's done an amazing job with his staff and then arthur smith and his staff in their development of the players when they brought them in anthony rush was not a was a guy was on this practice squad Near the beginning of the season Mike panel another guy big body dudes that they felt like Fit the mold of what they were looking for interior defensive linemen bigger bodies help with the run game Help you spell some guys whatever it might be but a little bit more of an image of what you're so you wanted to look like in the future Um, they've developed those dudes. So when they plug them in They know what they're doing It's not some guy just coming in off the street on friday and say no By the way, we're going to line you up in a three in a one technique and just do it dion tells you You know, that's not that's not the way these guys are they're developing these players And if if I hang my head on anything about this team, and I know we got another play game to play And we'll talk about the same turn a few minutes The coaching's coming back. Yeah That coaching has been happening all year long and we're seeing the development of richie grant We're just dealing the development of adai ogan daiji coming off the edge We're developing you seen the development of those players on the other side a g trell taking another step Oh, by the way, you got two of the best linebackers in the national football They get nobody knows about dion jones of boy a luke and tackling machines And then the development of some of the guys on the offensive side of the football Whether it's jail in mayfield and him coming as that left guard Or whatever that may be there the development of the of the running game to a certain extent Guys having to step up with the absence of calvin ridley and as it turned out in the second half Kyle pits here The coaching is coming back People and that's what i'm most excited about because i see guys getting coached up and being ready to go Because this is not the most talented roster in the league But when you look up your team's competing 15 14 and a halftime buffalos going to the playoffs You're right there with them, you know And yeah, you got to win those games and there's there is no You know honorary pat on the back here because this is the national football you win you lose But i like the trend and i love the coaching and the personnel people are coming back to adjust this team. Yeah, and again Next year, you know again hate to kind of transform or move forward to next year But when the team is officially eliminated you kind of think about okay, what are the prospects for the next season? You know hoping god willing that calvin ridley's back on the field for atlanta next year And we didn't even really get a chance to talk too much about kyle pits Obviously it goes down with the injury late in the first half does tries to go into second half But it ended up holding him out But the phenomenal season that he has had you get a guy like calvin ridley back You get another year with this offensive line improving maybe adding a piece that helps that group out I mean you might be talking about having a top three tight end in the national football league And again, I know we talked last week. It's not really a tight end.  He's a ball player. He's kind of like that prototypical He is just an athlete like he's a playmaker We don't need to put a te or a w r next to him. We just put a ball in his hands Yeah, you're right problem next to his name is what you're right So, uh, you know, he obviously not being available in the second half of the bill's game was was an issue And just take another just explosive weapon off the field Um And it's going to be tough to move the ball against a pretty good team So you talked about it Dave, let's fast forward talk about this week Final game on the schedule and this is one of the cool things about the nfl scheduling model is that they put these divisional games So ones that they anticipate are going to have meaning at the last week of the season This one doesn't necessarily have a meaning to get into the postseason for atlanta But it's got meaning because it's a rivalry game and this is a big time spoiler matchup so it's like You know, we've been a part of these saint's falcons matchups before And for a team that's not going to the postseason, I bet they have no problem getting up for this game. Do you agree? Yeah, no question about it You want to end the season on your terms on your note? And this has been a pretty good late november Through december run for atlanta trying to kind of get their foothold for 2022 Well, nothing gets a foothold in 2022 like knocking off the saints and maybe spoiling their opportunity for some postseason This was a game that the nfl was watching very closely Come come sunday. They were talking about Maybe moving the falcon saint game to saturday had atlanta beaten buffalo This was going to game that is going to have some implications for both teams from a postseason standpoint And they were looking at it very closely Now they've they've demoted to 425 eastern time It still is huge for the saints, which is lovely for us because you're not going you're not just playing You know somebody, you know a 5 and 11 team that okay, let's just roll it out there and let's play our last game This is the saints and you got a chance to really ruin their off season right here So it's you know, and again, you said saints. I love playing against these guys. I love competing I love the fans and the fan interaction. So this will be fun and mercedes been steady Yeah, it's if if we're not going to the postseason they can join us as well and watch the playoffs this year So we'll see how motivated the guys are. Dave talked about and I agree with him the compete level on his team is there Let's see it for one more week and let's see if they can go out there and spoil postseason hopes for the new Orleans saints and and end this season on a high note As you mentioned, it's always easier to go into the off season with a victory and a smile on your face Instead of that sour taste in your mouth. Well, if you look at this game real quickly rack and Really a couple of names come to mind for for the saints. Number one is cam jordan Cameron jordan, we have not blocked him since he's been in the league. Okay. He's got 22 sacks I believe in 21 games or vice versa He has been in fact matt ryan is the most sack quarterback in his career now It goes for reason because they play twice a year He he's coming off a three and a half sack performance against carolina last weekend He has seven sacks in his last three games This is a guy that now has 106 sacks in his career He's been a great saint and he's been a pain in the rear end for the falcons for a number of years So atlanta has got to get him blocked and he'll be a problem on the other side of it We just saw josh allen run for almost 100 yards and they ran for 230 in the game Well, here comes tasam hill. He's going to play this game at quarterback It was trevor simian the first time when atlanta went 27 25 down there It's going to be tasam hill at quarterback. You're going to get quarterback run And there's a dude that grew up in this area named calvin chimera that loves to come comes back home From what north cross high school You've got two guys that are going to be a problem because you just faced that problem this weekend You didn't take care of it. Yeah, so there's three names for you that you've got to take care of this weekend Yeah, and and tasam hill is you know, obviously he's not as talented as josh allen as far as throwing the football But you're right like he's going to watch that tape because tasam hill has that compete level running the football as well He's not the same type of guy that just wants to run and slide or get out of bounds like he he will initiate some contact sometimes He's a tough guy rough guy. He definitely is and so the the stopping the run is going to be a challenge and you're right cam jordan I was going to ask you and he's still playing but is he a hallfamer Cam jordan. I think he's there now. Yeah. Yeah, you go over you go triple digits on sacks And you haunt teams like he has and boy, he's haunted the fountain Well, and it's and it's impressive too that he's not as he's getting deeper into his career It's not like he's finishing a season with two sacks, right? He's still getting up there close to double digits Oh, he's an 11 and a half now. Yeah, he's he is taking care of taking over games on many of occasions So it doesn't look like he's slowing down anytime soon. I'm sure a lot of falcons fans are gonna say Ready for retirement See if you can get that cold jacket because we we would like to see somebody else So great great little preview there and we'll see if atlantic could slow down jordan on the defensive side and if they can Slow down taste some hill and alvin camara because those guys will come out ready to compete So that's going to wrap it up here in the falcons audible presented by at and t I think we did a pretty good job without dj. We're okay. We love having shock. We do So his smile is infectious and he definitely brings some good opinions, but um, you know, we we managed We got through this thing We probably look a little better without shock smile right here because he's got that golden boy smile, doesn't he? Hey, we love you shock. We'll see you next week and we'll see all of you guys next week as well Again falcons audible presented by at and t Thank you so much for joining us on alana falcons dot com youtube spotify itunes or wherever you get your podcast material See you next week everybody


Hey, everyone. Scott here. I just want to talk about anxiety and depression for just a minute, so hang on here. We like to identify ourselves and put ourselves in little boxes to make sense of the world, right? You might say, I'm an anxious person, I'm an angry person, I'm a curious person, I'm an excitable person, I'm a depressed person. We like to make sense of the world by identifying ourselves with an emotion with something that actually is simple based on our past reference points and experiences. The truth is, you're not an anxious person.  Because no matter who you are watching this video, you have been calm at certain points in your life. Even if you say, Scott, but I'm anxious all the time. That is a false belief. Let's rework that. There's no way you are anxious all the time because you're not anxious when you're asleep. How about that one? I got you.  You literally feel calm if only for a minute. When you're depressed, maybe you do some type of physical exercise and change your state like that. We're stuck in this area of identifying as a society. We tend to do this for many, many different reasons. I just want to let you know that that's the philosophy. That's the science behind the conquer anxiety course. It's actually changing your state, saying that, okay, I feel anxious in the moment. Here are a million things I can do to actually change my state like that. It's an amazing thing. Everyone's having so much fun. I'm getting awesome feedback from people in the course who are absolutely loving it. It's literally everything you need, man. Listen, the course is closing though tomorrow, Friday, September 18th at midnight.  There's only a few spots left because I'm just taking a handful. We're almost at capacity. I hope to see you in there, man. Take care. Thank you for being you. You are way more than an emotion.


So, we will continue with the discussion where we left in the previous lecture. So, what I was doing just a recoup of whatever has been discussed in earlier lecture, I was actually discussing m by n composite switch. So, there will be m inputs in this case and there will be n outputs. So, these m inputs can come at any point of time and n outputs have to be connected to the outgoing side. So, all subscribers are connected on this side.  I have to formally define these terms and also convey the meaning of these two because this how the switch blocking probabilities are usually estimated. So, basically what is the amount of call congestion and what is the amount of time congestion in a switch is an important parameter. So, for this the way I actually I had told earlier that for each line a call rate can arrive at lambda calls per unit time. This technically means between when the one call on a time scale when a call gets finished up and when the next call arrives the gap between these two is exponential distributed with mean value of 1 by lambda. And as I have actually mentioned in one of my lectures that exponential distribution as well as a Poisson statistics are kind of two faces of the same coin. So, if I look at the number of events and this events are point events which are happening. So, number of events which are going to happen that probability will be given by in a time t. So, n events is going to happen that probability is given by this and of course, the time gap between them is going to be exponentially distributed with mean value of 1 by lambda that is what actually it means. So, whether you talk in terms of Poisson distribution or you talk in terms of exponential distribution these are technically same things, but when we talk about voice call the things are slightly different because when a call arrives the person actually talks it consumes. So, channel is blocked no new call can arrive at this point of time only when the call gets finished then the next call only can arrive and this inter arrival time basically when the call gets finished the next call arrives that is being characterized by 1 by lambda actually for the circuit switching systems because this is not a point process a call arrival is not a point process it arrives, but then it holds on for some time before the call closes it does not finish is off it cannot be served immediately actually it takes some time. So, usually for this we will have exponential distribution of 1 by mu and for this 1 by lambda and for a small infinitesimally small time delta t that probability that one call will arrive is given by lambda delta t you can put here lambda into delta t risk power on e risk power minus lambda delta t by 1 factorial and you put in limit when delta t goes to 0 this will be actually converging on to this entity. And so this actually means if and we have to define the state of this particular switch. So, state of the switch is how many calls are currently through so if you are in a state 0 you can actually move to a state 1 and this will happen because call can arrive on any one of these lines and that will happen with the probability of because each line is independent. So, that will be happening with a probability of m lambda delta t and similarly when a call is being call is already in process what is the probability that call will be completed actually in time delta t that will be given by whatever be the number of calls multiplied by mu into delta t because mu into delta t is that a call will get completed in a infinitesimally small time delta t if there are m calls. So, the probability with that one call will get completed will be m mu delta t kind of thing. So, in this case there is only one call so you will have mu delta t and then of course, the state can be 2. So, in this case it will be m minus 1 because there is already one call through now second call is arriving. So, blank input ports for m minus 1. So, it will be m minus 1 lambda delta t and this will be 2 mu delta t and so on and then of course, in the n to maximum number of calls I am actually assuming a case where n is less than m. So, the maximum calls which can be done is n. So, when you are in this state you will actually have number blank input ports or input lines will be m minus n. Even if a call arrives it will remain in the same state call cannot be accepted because it cannot be connected to any outgoing port. So, just before this it will be m minus n plus 1 there has to be at least one output port free for coming to this particular state. This state will be called n state will be lambda delta t and when you go out it will be n mu delta t and under steady state operation the probability of being in a state is going to be constant is going to be same for the time to come on an average basis actually. So, which actually means under steady state operation if I make take any close surface like this the rate at which the transition which will be happening to for going to outside the surface and coming into the surface has to be equal that is a balance equation. So, once we create a balance equation I can solve for this. So, in this case for example, it will be m lambda delta t probability that you have to be in a state 0. So, that is the rate at which the transition out of the surface will be happening this has to be equal to p 1 there is only 1 mu delta t. So, that is a rate and delta t of course, cancels. So, in fact the balance equations will not have delta t. So, which actually implies I can actually now need not consider these delta t is here because we are talking about rate equations. So, which implies that p 1 I can now write here p 1 will be nothing, but m lambda by mu by 1 what about p 2. So, for p 2 if I write the equation p 2 2 mu t in fact I am not writing delta t because those will anyway will cancel out and if I am there in p 1. So, this will be m minus 1 into lambda. So, this will become p 2 is equal to m minus 1 by 2 lambda by mu p 1 and I can put a value of p 1 from here this will be m into m minus 1 by 2 into 1 lambda by mu square p 0. So, that is what will be the term and so on. So, p of i will be in this case will be m into m minus 1 m minus 2 and so on m minus i plus i i minus 1 2 1 and of course, clearly this is nothing, but m committed to real i lambda by mu risk power i into p 0. So, that is how the state probabilities for this particular Markov chain actually can be computed and then we also know the rule that sum of all state probabilities because all of them are mutually exclusive and system has to be in one of those states this is a complete definition. So, summation of all state probabilities p of i for i is equal to 0 to n has to be equal to 1. Remember we have done it for m m 1 infinity q also in the one of the previous lectures. So, I can actually use this exam and then of course, do the summation this will give me summation of p 0 plus m c 1 lambda by mu risk power 1 p 0 m c 2 lambda by mu risk power 2 p 0 and so on last term will be m c n of course, lambda by mu risk power n p 0. So, of course, I can actually put here m c 0 which is 1 lambda by mu risk power 0. So, this gives me a complete arithmetic progression sorry this is geometric progression because the binomial actually series and once I do the summation of this, but the problem is I cannot solve it because I need to get the terms from 0 to till m I am actually having only term till n. So, I have to just keep it as it is that is a sum which is going to be there and if I do this. So, I can write this thing as m c i lambda by mu risk power i i goes from 0 to n where n is less than m p 0 is equal to 1 and from here I can get an estimate of what is p 0. So, p 0 will turn out to be 1 over summation of i 0 goes to from 1 to n m c i lambda by mu risk power i and then of course, I can actually further solve it I will get p i as lambda by mu risk power i m c i whatever was the p 0 value which is now this is the probability distribution and we call it a ang set probability distribution for a composite switch. So, this gives the blocking basically the probability that a switch will be in state i. So, now if I put instead of i I put n which is the when the switch will be in the blocking state. So, once you are in state n any new call which arrives the call cannot be completed because all the outgoing ports will be busy. So, probability of blocking is can be identified as p b is equal to m c n lambda by mu risk power n lambda by mu risk power n k is equal to 1 to n m k m c k is lambda by mu k. So, that is the blocking probability which we have now when I am talking about a switch it is very important there two things even if the switch is in this state for which I have defined the probability and no call arrives for example, you are operating a switch does goes into this state, but when it is in this state no new call comes actually. So, in fact none of your calls will actually see blocking. So, there is a difference. So, switch just remains in blocking state does not mean that a call will get blocked the call will only get blocked if a call arrives. So, we have to now define something called call congestion and a time congestion. So, now I will explain this thing like this that there was a switch and all calls the switch is in the blocking state because now if no if in some new call arrives it do not get through. So, the probability your switch is in the blocking state is what is known as time congestion actually. So, that is time congestion. So, clearly what you are seeing here is nothing, but the time congestion it is not the call congestion actually and if you want to actually make a measurement of a switch you just keep on observing the switch. This probability will give you nothing if you observe the switch for some time t it is a fraction of time fraction of t for which switch was in blocking state. It does not talk about whether calls were blocked or not blocked it is talking about only switch being in a certain state. So, this since it is in terms of fraction of time we call it time congestion it is a time for which switch was in blocking state. I can now change the definition and probably some of you may not be interested in this parameter. People can ask what I would like to know is if I make 1 million calls how many calls were not switch was not able to complete switch was not able to connect them actually. So, the fraction of calls which saw the switch was in blocked state now that actually depends on the call rate when you are making the call and that fraction of calls which will see the switch in blocked state is what is known as call congestion. So, this is fraction of calls seeing switch in blocked state is what is known as call congestion. So, we would like to now actually find out a relation between these two. So, how that actually will be done. So, what we can say is let the switch was in blocked state that probability is P b and when you are in this blocked state this basically is call congestion what is the probability condition on this that you are in state n a new call arrives that probability this will give what we call in absolute sense a call loss rate number of calls which will be lost on an average basis if you may 1 million calls how many of them will be lost is not conditioned actually it is not conditional probability, but it is absolute sense probability that a call arrives and it will be lost it is not that what is a probability that a call will be lost conditioned on that a call arrives remember that two different thing if a call arrives now call has arrived is already sure now what is a conditional probability that it will be lost. So, call arrival is already there if call is not lost this probability of call loss is going to be 0 probability if the call is going to be lost surely it is 1, but when I am talking about this kind of thing probability that a call arrives and call is lost that will never be equal to 1 that will be less than 1 actually usually. So, this should be that probability call arrives and probability arrives and it is lost. So, I should write this that this is a probability that a call arrives. So, call arrival probability is also included and it is lost both things this should be equal to that what is a probability that a call will arrive p of a and then it will see that switch was in blocked state. So, we call it p of l that is basically is probability that a call arrives is a conditional probability that when call arrives the call will be lost this is what we call call congestion this is what we call call congestion this is time congestion we need to find out the relation between these two. So, from here we clearly because we have estimated this p b we have to estimate p l I will do it for composite switch. So, p l will be given by p b now if the call arrival probability when which I have written in the bottom is a call arrival probability when switch is in state n when call arrival rate is independent of the switch state switch is state does not govern it this value and this value both will cancel these both will cancel and call loss probability will be equal to or call congestion will be equal to time congestion both of them will be same this usually will happen in very large gigantic switch and you are operating below a small level actually very large number of things are there. So, it is like if you take m and n and m is very very large than n then this will be very closely call congestion and time congestion will be very closely relate actually become equal to each other. There will be minor difference because in absolute sense in real sense these two probabilities cannot be same, but you can approximate them we now need to make an statement for this we need to find out how we will find out p n a first we need to find out this now this will this is call arrival probability when switch is in blocked state. So, that will happen what is the arrival rate total arrival rate because of the free incoming ports when the switch was in state n over time delta t. So, this will be nothing, but you have to find out this arrival rate is m minus n because that is a free ports into lambda into delta t and I am talking about a arrival chance within a infinitesimally small time delta t. So, that is why I am not taking the full Poisson expression because remaining thing actually goes to 0. Now, p of arrival call arrival because now I have to do what we call as statistical averaging over all possible states for all arrival probabilities. So, I can write this thing as lambda t into delta t where lambda t will be nothing, but it will be an average value probability you are in state k is this and the arrival probability in that state is this one. So, I will do the averaging sorry this will be n because there are only n states. So, that will be your lambda t. So, from where I can get p a. So, this also can be done now if you put it of course, I need to put these two in these this particular equation and I will get p of l lambda n lambda t n p of b. So, that is the term which we will get from here. So, p and a will be nothing, but lambda n delta t p a will be lambda t delta t delta t will cancel. So, again we are talking about rates and lambda n I can write as m minus n into lambda into p b this I can write as summation I will let me use the write c m subscript p k lambda k p b and this solving this further. Now, you can actually clearly observe one important thing I am doing the averaging of arrival rate. So, lambda when you are in 0 state will be very high because you will be it will be m lambda actually in that case as I keep on reducing keep on actually increasing my state value it will be monotonically decreasing function in the end you will have m minus n into lambda.  So, this will be usually holding true unless your arrival process itself is a state dependent then only it will be equal otherwise it will be always less than condition. So, now let us solve this for this particular thing. So, p of l will be given by m minus n lambda p b is. So, I can write now p k as m minus k just a minute m c k sorry lambda k is m minus k lambda and I have to put a value of p k. So, simplifying it now p k will be given by an n set probability distribution m c k just you look what we had derived this is how you will get your m c k. So, I have to write exactly the same expression. So, I am using subscript here is 0 there is a different summation that is what it should be. So, it is exactly from here I have just taken it and we have got this expression and of course, ultimately p b here. Now solving it further and probability of blocking also we have the relation already identified by this particular thing and I have to use this expression. So, let me use this also. So, I am just rewriting everything here on the fresh sheet now p b is going to be m c n lambda my mu risk power n divided by summation actually variable running variable here. So, now this particular entity and this particular entity are same and they are independent of k. So, I can simply cancel them.   So, this lambda of course, can cancel with this one without any problem and I will end up in getting.  So, I can take this m out and it will become m minus 1 factorial m minus n minus 1 factorial n lambda by mu risk power n.  Now, interestingly this whole expression this particular expression is very similar to the expression given here this particular one except this m is now being replaced by m minus 1. So, which implies that p of l for a value m is nothing, but equal to p of b for m minus 1. So, that is the relationship which will come between call congestion probability and time congestion. So, once you understand this we need to now see we actually have to use it for finding out what we call in a three stage interconnection network how to estimate the blocking probability. So, the same concept will actually be used there. So, in the next lecture we will be actually doing a call congestion estimate for a three stage class network.


Hello everyone. Welcome to another IR capsule for the Shankar IAS Academy. Today we discuss a new document which has been released by the Pakistan Prime Minister called Pakistan National Security Policy. This has been done by Pakistan for the first time in its history. They never had a policy on Pakistan national security published ever before. Many countries do issue these documents, national security, nuclear security, comprehensive security. In so many ways, major powers do publish these security documents. Normally these things happen when something dramatic happens, very important issues, or when a new change of government takes place. The government has, of course, various ways of indicating what their policies would be. But occasionally, the governments feel that everything should be put together in a comprehensive manner and presented to the people, to friends as well as enemies, so that they are able to understand the rationale of the policies of these governments. India has done this exercise several times. I was in the National Security Advisory Board some years ago and we did prepare a national security document, but this has not been finalized as yet. But the problem with these documents is that it's a dynamic document. It is very difficult to stop and publish it, thinking that situation will remain so. If you look back at the history of national security policies, you will know that very often these need to be changed without notice because major changes take place, like the collapse of the Soviet Union. You had a security policy that would have become redundant or outdated when the Soviet Union collapsed. Or to look at the pandemic, whatever plans we had before 2019 would have to be revised. Every country will have to revise this security policy, its health policy, etc. So there is a certain danger in putting out a policy for a particular period. But then there is a purpose. There is a purpose to show that that particular government has a vision of the future. How far that future will be is to be determined by the country itself. So what Pakistan has decided is to issue a Pakistan national security policy document announced by the Prime Minister himself on 14th January 2020. But what is released is not a full document. He said that there is a document with 62 pages out of which 42 are unclassified, non-secret. So he has released only the 48 pages and therefore we do not know what is in the classified pages. So that itself is inadequate because what is published may be something, what is not published may be something else. So that contradiction will be there. But still you cannot contradict what is written in 48 pages cannot be very different from what they have written in the other few pages. So we can imagine that there is also a unified document and from the published document we may be able to get some idea about how Pakistan views itself. And since Pakistan is a very close neighbour and we have had very difficult relations with Pakistan, naturally this will be read with great interest in India. And you may have seen that in the last few weeks. This has been discussed virtually every platform and in the newspapers and you may have got some ideas to what this is all about. But the fundamental thing that you remember after you read these 48 pages is that there is really nothing new in it, particularly from India's perspective. We can use the old cliche that is old wine in new bottle because much of what you read, you feel that you have read this before. And there is no real fundamental difference in what Pakistan has done in the past and what Pakistan wants to do or wants the world to know what their expectations are and their strategy is. So, but let us look at the whole purpose of it. To me it looks like a reflection of their desire to get recognized as a country which has a larger view of the world and its security policy, they would like to see it as a part of their economic policy. This much there is a change because they are saying that the security of Pakistan depends on its economic security and therefore the core of the national security policy is economics. This is fair enough. But if you read the rest of the report, rest of the document, you will find that that is just an opening gambit. It goes on to all kinds of usual threats and counter threats and dangers and so on. So, it is presented in this way. Probably part of the reason is that Pakistan is looking for funding from IMF, World Bank and also friendly countries like China. So, by highlighting that Pakistan's priority is economic security. Pakistan is projecting some kind of a benign security policy which is really not so true. And this is prepared by what is called the national security division of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Like we did it in the National Security Advisory Board. So, the National Security Advisory Board is a body comprised of former diplomats, military officials, economies, newspapers, editors, etc. So, I presume that the National Security Division must have also consulted not only officials but also non-officials, politicians and others. And it took them seven years of consultation before this could be published. And we have not done it even after seven years. And they have set the target of five years, say 2022 to 2026. This policy is supposed to be applicable during this period. But they also say that this may have to be revised when there is a change of government, when there is any dramatic developments in the world. And therefore, that is conditional. And that will be really true because nobody can work on the basis of a permanent policy while the world keeps changing. But the Prime Minister said that this has been tried before. But this is the first time that we have been able to produce a document of this nature. So, it has about eight sections. I'll just give you a gist of what these sections talk about. As I said, first is economic security is above four. That is the first point. And this has been explained in various ways, how the government will focus on the needs of the people. And that is the angle. But no solution, all the challenges have been mentioned. The economic security challenges have been mentioned, like external problems and internal stability, etc. But no concrete solution has been suggested. They generally speak about citizen security and dignity. And it talks about three changes in the economic situation in Pakistan. Very vague statements. For example, external imbalance doesn't explain what exactly it is. Then vertical inequalities. And then horizontal inequalities. So, these are the three challenges that they mentioned as challenges to the economic security of the country. Then strangely enough, they use the Indian expression, which Pandit Ji, Pandit Nairu used a long time ago. Unity in diversity is totally borrowed from India as a principle of national cohesion. Which we say we have diversity. We concede that. But the concept of India, the unity of India depends on the concept that all these diversities eventually they lead to not only a national consensus, but also an international. Asuthaiva couldn't become the whole family, etc. But here I think Pakistan is just giving it a lip service by saying that unity in diversity as a principle of national cohesion. But in the next sentence, they say Pakistan is an Islamic state. So, where is the diversity? And it suspects that there is an external hand in shaping national discourse in Pakistan. So, they don't mention who the external hand is, which is obvious to imagine who it will be. Then it goes on to say, they forget all about economic. And then they talk about conventional military threats, maritime competition, deterrence in South Asian region, cyber security, space security and importance of defence. So, these are what are called the traditional security concerns. Again, nothing, no surprise in that. The Indian Ocean is mentioned about three times. And as to be expected, India is mentioned about 14 times in the document. In the unclassified document, I don't know how many times I have mentioned India in the secret document. And there is only one positive reference in the whole document on India, which is simply a statement that Pakistan wants to improve its relations with India.  In every policy statement, all Prime Ministers of Pakistan, all authorities, they always say for the sake of form, Pakistan wants to improve its relations with India. Then immediately they will say, but that's not possible because German Kashmir problem. It has ceasefire violations. Pakistan has a problem looking after the line of control. There should be a working boundary. Then India has triad, that is our nuclear capability to operate from sky, earth and sea. And investment in modern technologies by India, multiplication of armaments, new technology. And what they call a regressive and dangerous ideology. Here again, this is not the first time they are talking about dangerous ideology. They have even talked about Hindutva and how that's a threat from India to Pakistan. So there's nothing new in it. So then they talk about what they intend to do to meet all these threats. And they suspect that some countries, again, obviously it's a reference to India, some countries may use a deliberate policy choice of adversariness or danger to Pakistan. And therefore Pakistan is committed to defeat any threat to Pakistani territory, strengthening Pakistan's capabilities. As a deterrent regime, we must have our nuclear capability and also develop technology for Pakistan. So they have said what the threats are from other countries, external countries and what are the things that Pakistan would like to do in order to counter these threats. Then there's a section on internal security. And this is something we are familiar with because Pakistan has a huge set of internal security problems. Some they acknowledge, some they do not acknowledge. And we would of course think that it is fundamentalist terrorist elements in Pakistan. I would consider that to be the major threat. But Pakistan lists it differently. They say the first most important internal security threat for Pakistan is separatist movements, separatist movements in different parts of Pakistan. We know about some of them. Then sectarianism, even though it's an Islamic state, there are various sects in Islam itself. And therefore there are some contradictions which they acknowledge. And then they talk about terrorism. They are the masters of terrorism. They are the mastermind in terrorism against India. And they say they are also victims of terrorism internally. And then they talk about violent extremist ideologies. And therefore there is a need to de-radicalize the various elements in Pakistan's internal situation. Fair enough, we have no parallel. That every country has internal contradictions. We ourselves have many problems, but ours is a much more organized and a much more civilized way of dealing with our internal differences. Then to be expected, there is a whole chapter on foreign policy and cashmere. You know, they always think about cashmere. Whatever is the subject, Pakistan has to talk about cashmere. You know that joke when Pakistan was asked to talk about elephants, the topic chosen by the Pakistan diplomat was elephants and cashmere. So everything is linked to cashmere as well as they are concerned. So they say that Pakistan has to leverage all political relations and economic gains inside Pakistan and outside because it is a melting pot of regional and global economic interests. And therefore they need to develop mutually beneficial relations with all major powers and move towards a normalization within neighbors. So the first priority is good relations with all great big powers and they make it very clear that the idea is to gain economically. That means great powers friendship, whether it is US or Russia or anybody else. The objective is to get more money because China is the most important money giver. Not much about China is said here because that may have been in the confidential part of the paper. Of course about the German cashmere, they say it is a poor issue and unless that is resolved, the whole declaration that we want to be friendly, we think it has really no meaning. So they'll immediately say that cashmere should be resolved and also they say the unacceptable formulation that it should be resolved on the basis of UN resolutions because they don't know what the resolutions they are talking about. The resolutions that they are talking about is only referendum but the same resolution has other elements in it. So when they say UN resolutions, they are trying to bluff the world because they have not fulfilled the first two conditions of the resolution before India can hold a plebiscite but they just talk about plebiscite only and therefore try to fool the people. So this paper blames India on JNK for having what they call hegemonistic designs, that is cashmere when their presumption is cashmere is Pakistan's territory and we are becoming an overlords of that by force, an absolute absurdity. And also blames India for frozen bilateral ties in the sense that we are not falling into the trap of talks and consultations without any meaning because fundamentally if they say that cashmere is part of Pakistan, there is really no way of discussing anything and what we have agreed to discuss is only the terrorism in Pakistan, in JNK by Pakistan. When Mr. Narasimharov first agreed to have cashmere introduced as an agenda item in the bilateral discussions, he made it very clear to Ms. Bhutto that it will only mean terrorism engaged by Pakistan in cashmere, nothing else. We are not going to talk about anything else. Our understanding is very clear. So they re-trade that resolution of JNK dispute remains a vital security interest of Pakistan. Pakistan will provide, and this is again not new, will provide moral, legal and diplomatic support to the people of cashmere until they achieve the right to self-determination. This is a fundamental difference between India and Pakistan because we believe that by joining India, the people of cashmere have already exercised their right to self-determination, like all of the states in India. And therefore, just as all the other states have no right to self-determination, cashmere also does not have right to self-determination. Again, you can exercise it only once. Otherwise, what will happen is the world will keep changing, the borders will keep changing if every little group in every country tries to get self-determination. So it's been generally accepted that self-determination is applicable basically in colonised territories or under foreign occupation. So Pakistan's argument is yes, it is under foreign occupation because India is occupying it. Therefore, people of cashmere have the right to self-determination. This is of course an irreconcilable position. Then they again talk about arms buildup and access to advanced technologies and priorities. And they of course consider the India-US nuclear deal as unfair to Pakistan because both India and Pakistan are equal in this respect. Both are non-signatories to the NPT. But how come you have a deal with India and not with Pakistan? President Bush answered it by saying that India's and Pakistan's nuclear policies have different trajectories and they cannot be compared. So what he meant was the nuclear weapons of Pakistan were supplied by China while India's nuclear weapons are indigenous. So then this proposal, they also object to the proposal for India being considered for the membership of the nuclear supplies group even though it has not signed the NPT. So the fact of the matter is Pakistan is not signing the NPT just because India has not signed it. They have clarified that every moment, any moment India signs the NPT. Pakistan will also be happy to do that. So it is a purely reciprocal thing and we are now in addition to sign the NPT and therefore they have also kept out of it. And the only other country which has not signed it is Israel because of its problems with the Arab countries. They think they must have the option to have nuclear weapons. So the whole message that we get from the new security policy of Pakistan in one word, no change lightly in Pakistan's attitude to India. It's a perception of threat from India and other countries. Their own policy, economic policy is not changing. They keep talking about trade. Here also they talk about trade with India. But the fundamental thing that a country has to do to trade with another country is to provide what is called most favored nation acceptance. Because the word sounds very dramatic, most favored nation. This is what Pakistan keeps saying. How can we call India a most favored nation? We are the most detested nation. But that is not the meaning of it. Most favored nation means we are ready to do business with you. And Pakistan is not ready to do business with Pakistan. India conceded MFN status to Pakistan long ago. But Mr. Narendra Modi recently withdrew it, saying that you cannot unilaterally give MFN status. So if you don't give MFN status and talk about trade with India, it has no meaning. Just as when they talk about normalizations relations with India and immediately says core issue of Pakistan. So these gentlemen and ladies have no intention to normalize relations with India. Their old trump card is hatred towards India because they can cash it in many markets of the world. First of all, they have been given an equal status in the eyes of the world. You know, Pakistan is a piddly little state compared to India. But everybody thinks that India and Pakistan are equal. You talk to foreigners who don't understand the situation there. So they think it's a big balance. Pakistan is balancing India. Nothing like that. Because they are too small and too insignificant to balance against India. So if they say, solve their problems with India, Pakistan will become insignificant advice of the world. So that is the fundamental problem. And when they talk about equality and opportunity and all that, they know they are multiple. So unless that mindset is changed, we cannot expect any change. They may produce any number of documents. But reading these 4K pages, certainly I get the impression that this is just an eyewash. That's the kind of document which they can show to the world and say that we are interested in peace in the world, all that. And of course, Imran Khan is going in the next few days, I think, 3rd and 4th of February is going to be in China. Why is he going there? He has said, I'm going there to declare solidarity with China because many countries are boycotting the winter Olympics. And there is a huge COVID-19 problem there. In spite of that, Pakistan expects all its close friends to China. I expect all their close friends to visit Beijing for the winter Olympics. And many countries have promised to go. India is not one of them. I saw somebody tweeting why it's not India going. And my answer was, is there any country going there whose land is occupied by China? Look at the list of people who are going there. They don't have a border with China. So they can be happy with China. So only Pakistan probably has, the Pakistan occupied Kashmir some border with China. Otherwise, even they don't have. So, and he's going there basically to discover other things. He needs cash. He needs military equipment. He needs loans and various other things because Pakistan is a failing state. It may not be a failed state, but it is propped up by the international community basically because they think that Pakistan provides a kind of balance with India. So several comments have been made. I'll just mention some of them on the document that I have given you a picture of that. So, one point that's been made is they have a one-dimensional mismindset. India, that's all. That is the funny story that when Mrs. Bhutto met the chairman of the foreign relations committee in the United States Senate. So, she went and met him and then the chairman said, I'll introduce you to the Senate and brought Mrs. Bhutto to the Senate chamber. And he introduced, ladies and gentlemen, Mrs. Banasir Bhutto, the Prime Minister of India. He said, the whole Senate burst into laughter. What happened to this old man? So, when everybody laughed and then what did he say? He turned to Mrs. Bhutto and said, this is all you are making. One hour you spent with me, you did not say the word Pakistan even once. You used India's name a hundred times. So, I thought you are the Prime Minister of India, he said. That was an ambiguous insult to Pakistan that it was meant to be. So, that is the kind of mindset then. How can you? So, they talk about the basic problem is, again, the wars within India. They don't talk about war in 1971, the Bangladesh war they don't mention. But they mentioned 1948 and 1965. Then, economic security is not there because they don't have India's cooperation nor trade or kinds of things. Then, of course, one interesting thing is Pakistan is talking about gender security for the first time in a document of respect. You know how much their respect to women. Therefore, when they talk about gender security, it is important to note and they are suggesting that there's a new social contract and citizens are the stakeholders of the country and the law of the ideals of citizen-centric development. All this is the usual pious declaration and economic diplomacy shift from military to citizen-centered framework, economic security at the core. Then, on relations with India, new policy makes no changes unless it is something in the unclassified part of the document. Then, about nuclear development, I just mentioned that unlike India, Pakistan does not have a non-first use principle and therefore, they keep threatening to use nuclear weapons. While we never threaten to use nuclear weapons because our policy is only to use nuclear weapons in a second attack. So, we will never be the first to attack any country with nuclear weapons. Therefore, what Pakistan has done is they have developed what are called the new theater weapons, small nuclear weapons, which can be used to destroy one city or half a city, etc. Because they think that may be more useful than bombs which can destroy countries. So, it makes more credible. They pretend that they can use nuclear weapons without hurting themselves. But every nuclear expert knows that such a thing doesn't exist. The nuclear fallout will be such that any kind of contained nuclear war is not possible. And of course, we do not know how many weapons Pakistan has, how many weapons India has. Both the countries have never revealed. But there is one organization in Stockholm, SIPTRI, which gives their calculation of how many weapons each has. And according to them, Pakistan has more warheads than India has. They say 165 warheads for Pakistan. And we have 156 last year. But we are not in this numbers game because we have said that our military or nuclear capability is only as a deterrent to Pakistan. It is just to remind Pakistan that if they come up with something, either nuclear use or nuclear blackmail, we will counter it. And that's all our work. So, why do we need more and more nuclear warheads? One is enough, I would say. But then, of course, we have to keep this updated. And therefore, we may have to keep on doing research and developing new technologies, etc. And therefore, that has no meaning. We are not worried that Pakistan has more warheads. That's not important. The important thing is that we have a deterrent against not only Pakistan, but also China or anybody else, and also non-state actors. Because that's the threat we have. All these mad terrorist outfits, if they get hold of a nuclear weapon from America, you can imagine a disaster that will bring about that. And of course, if we look back at Pakistan, many observers are pointing out that of history of negotiations with India. We know that they have no intention. We came very close to an open border solution. That is, without exchanging territory, keep an open border, which was discussed in Agra between Pervez, Musharraf and that will be rewatched by. But that was not acceptable. And also, they say that Pakistan's immediate security is impacted by the Hindutva policy of India. Again, that is not new. There have been these press reports that there is something in the document about changing its policy of trade with India, even without resolving the Kashmir dispute. But in the open part of the report, there is no such thing. I look for it, but it is not there. So it may be in the unclassified part. It must have been in the unclassified part, of course. So, the purpose is basically to appear reasonable, intellectually honest, and peaceful intentions. So in order to gather an effort, like a think tank report, there is nothing more than that, because there is no political input here. If you put former ambassadors around their desk, they will produce a security doctrine or a security policy. But that will have no meaning, because it has no political input. Because the Prime Minister delivered it, but it does not mean that it has its political connection. So in other words, as a aspirants, you may be asked to write about Pakistan's security policy. And these are the main points I have to remember, because there is so much of literature on it. And if you can remember these points that I have just mentioned, that would be useful for you. Thank you very much. You don't seem to be aware of the tensions at this time. You're talking about road route. The question is whether we can pass through. So these are all dreams of the future. We have to reach Central Asia by other means. And once Afghanistan has become a terrorist state or a Taliban state, we don't even have conversations with them. So that is the question of the upgrade routes. I think that Pakistan has already fallen to the crux of China. It's a cold corridor. It's supposed to be 40 billion US dollars. And I don't know how much has been spent. But certainly, whatever has been spent is shown as a debt. And it has interest rates. It has other considerations. And therefore, whole BRI is not meant for the development of their partners. It is meant to establish domination, Chinese domination over the world. The more people who join will fall into the trap. Why not? We are seeking peace with Pakistan. But what we are saying is we cannot have peace and war together. This is our dilemma. You cannot be talking friendly terms and that, Mr. Modi tried very hard. You remember the initial months of his prime ministership. He sent Sari to Nawaz Sharif's mother, went to his grandson's wedding without telling the rest of the world. He embraced Pakistani leaders. He invited them to Delhi on the first day of his swearing in. He tried all those things. And then he realized that as long as terrorism continues, as long as Indian lives are lost on the border, as long as their greed for Indian territory has not disappeared, how can there be peace? And so, like the previous governments, he came to the same conclusion that you cannot have peace and war together. Talk terrorism, we will talk. Who is comparing? They are comparing. And they have been successful conveying to the people of the world that there is some kind of equality between India and Pakistan. There is some kind of balance. Which is not true. At the United Nations, I have come across so many occasions when people always appeal to India and Pakistan to be peaceful. Is it fair? Have we invaded Pakistan at any time? Then why should we feel uncomfortable about Pakistan? We are uncomfortable because Pakistan has evil intentions. Who created the 1948 war? Who created the 1965 war? Who created the Cargill war? Because we have won each of these wars and they know. And with the nuclear capability, a war is not likely. So you have what is called the cold peace between us. And that will remain unless they change their strategy of terrorism as a national policy. Obviously, it means that what is the base on which we can establish peace. So that is very clear. They must concede that the line of control is the international border. That is the first step, which they are not willing to do. Even with the guarantee that people on both sides will be able to cross over without passports and visas. It is a dangerous thing for us to do.  Therefore, not a nice thing for us to have. But still we are willing to consider it. But it will not happen. So I don't know what they can do. Because for them, survival depends on the Kashmir regime. Because then the army will be on the side of the... and the army will secure their country. And the people will think that this is all because of India. And so military and fundamental groups are running Pakistan. The joke about Pakistan is other countries have an army. But in Pakistan, the army has a country. You must have heard this. So that is the truth. Every time Imran Khan says something, he has to turn around and say that Mr. Bajwa is agreeing to what he is saying. And the moment the army chief decides that he has no use for Pakistan, he will go. Because the army needs a face. And Imran Khan was a very cheerful and friendly face. He was a cricket captain and very friendly with India at that time. And I have known him during my United Nations days. Very pleasant to his life of the party and so on. And when he was like that, he got only one seat in the Pakistan Parliament. Then he took the decision to join up with the terrorists and the conductors. And that's how he won. And now it is a rebel. It's a different Imran Khan. And he will also go when he is of no use to the Pakistani military. So we'll have to deal with another prime minister. And how can policy change as long as the army does not change? This is it. All right. It looks like no more questions. Bye-bye.