So, we showed that covariance of x and y is 0, but then and of course, by definition also it was clear that x and y are not independent, but we can also show analytically and that is see just consider this conditional probability x equal to 1 and y equal to 0 given y equal to 0. So, probability conditional probability x equal to 1 given y equal to 0. So, it will be equal to probability x equal to 1, y equal to 0 divided by probability y 0, y equal to 0, but this is by definition is equal to probability x equal to 1 and then here it will be probability x equal to 1 plus probability accumulative distribution function, because probability y is 0. So, should be not yes. So, this is y is 0 when x is not 0. So, x is 0, x is not 0 that means x is value 1 and x is value minus 1. So, therefore, this is 1 by 3 divided by 2 by 3 which equals half, but this is not equal to probability x equal to 1. So, if x and y were independent this conditional probability should have been equal to probability x equal to 1. So, therefore, x and y are not independent. In the last lecture, I defined covariance and then I also defined correlation and just try to show you that correlation is nothing but the dimensionless version of covariance. And now here a few more examples of or uses of covariance. So, you saw that when you wrote variance x 1 plus x 2, the formula was variance x 1 plus variance x 2 plus twice covariance x 1 x 2. So, in general if x 1 and x 2 are not independent then I for to compute the variance of x 1 plus x 2 I need covariance x 1 comma x 2. And in general if you take it if you take some of n variables and you want to compute the variance then by the formula it would be, because again the property that we defined for the variance you can just apply them iteratively. And this will be sigma i varying from 1 to n variance x i, because it will be covariance of x 1 comma x 1 x 2 comma x 2 and so on. And then the product terms where x i and x j are different i and j are different. So, this will be equal to twice sigma covariance x i x j if you put i less than j, because remember for the covariance also we said that covariance of x i comma x j is the same as covariance x j comma x i. So, if you impose this i less than j then it will become twice, because covariance x 2 x 1 I will write as covariance x 1 x 2. So, then it will become twice this or you can write this as summation i j where of course, you have to say that i is not equal to j then it will be covariance. So, whichever formula suits you you can use that. So, this will be covariance x i x j simply without the two if you simply summing over all possible values of i and j, so that i is not equal to j. Now, interesting again an example to show you that how you can make use of these properties that we have enunciated for the covariance. So, consider the multinomial distribution remember there were n objects and then there were k categories. So, multinomial distribution with k categories, so then a probability of success in one categories p 1 p 2 and p k and we have already discussed this distribution and we saw that the probabilities for successes will behave like binomial. So, for example, in category 1 it will be binomial and p 1 it will be binomial and p 2 and so on. So, this is how you define the multinomial distribution n comma p vector where p vector is p 1 p 2 p k. So, these are the probabilities of being in a particular category which means success in the first categories so on. So, now if you want to compute covariance x i x j for any i j then for i equal to j it will be covariance x i comma x j will be covariance x i x i which is we know is variance x i and since each x i is binomial and n p i x i is binomial n p i. So, therefore, we know from the binomial distribution formula that the variance is n p i into 1 minus p i. Now, for i not equal to j we want to compute covariance x i x j, so let us just do it for covariance x 1 comma x 2. So, the question asked is what do you expect should this be negative covariance x 1 comma x 2. See the idea is that now after having defined correlation also we see that this measures the linear relationship between and of course, we still have to talk about Cauchy Schwarz inequality and so on. So, anyway the expectation is that this will be negative why because you see if the total number of objects is fixed which is n. Now, if a large number of people or objects are in x 1 then accordingly x 2 the number will not be that large. So, there will be negative correlation or negative relationship between x 1 and x 2 and that is what covariance will measure here. So, and we will see after computations that it actually comes out to be a negative number. So, variance x 1 plus x 2 is variance x 1 plus variance x 2 plus twice covariance x 1 comma x 2 which we wrote down earlier.  So, there must have we must have done some exercises also or you can just sit down and obtain this result for yourself. So, therefore, variance for x 1 plus x 2 would be n times p 1 plus p 2 into 1 minus p 1 minus p 2 and so from this relationship it is this quantity that we want to compute. So, therefore, 2 covariance x 1 comma x 2 will be just take this to this side. So, n p 1 plus p 2 I am just opening up the brackets. So, n p 1 plus p 2 minus n p 1 plus p 2 whole square which you can write as now I do not know why I have written it as.  So, everything cancels out your left minus 2 n p 1 p 2. So, therefore, this is less than 0 because p 1 p 2 and n all are positive cumulative distribution function 0. So, the covariance and so once you know that the covariance x 1 x 2 is minus n p 1 p 2 you can immediately conclude that covariance x i x j will be minus n p i p j. So, this was made possible because of this formula which was again written down using covariance and now for this multinomial distribution you can immediately write down the formula for covariance x i x j as this cumulative distribution function relation coefficient also which will again turn out to be negative because the correlation coefficient will be simply this divided by standard deviation of x i and this will be standard deviation x j which we have already know right because it will be n into p i 1 minus p i under root and this will be n into p j 1 minus p j under root. So, therefore, this computation has become so simple. In the example where we took x 1 to be x and x 2 equal to x square and I said that probability x equal to 1 is equal to probability x equal to minus 1 is half. Then we saw that expectation of x and it was equal to expectation x cube was 0 and therefore, you could see show that covariance x 1 x 2 where x 1 is x and x 2 is x square is 0. Now, actually what you can you can always show this if whenever x 1 that is x is normal 0 sigma square that means expectation of x is 0 and or x 1 has any other distribution which is symmetric about 0 because you saw that x here is symmetric about 0. So, probability x equal to 1 is equal to probability x equal to minus 1 is half. So, this is symmetric about 0. So, now if I take instead of this if I had taken the distribution of x to be normal 0 sigma square or any other distribution which is symmetric about the origin then you can show that covariance x 1 comma x 2 is 0. So, therefore, you can construct so many examples where covariance is 0 between two random variables, but they are not independent because there is a definite quadratic relationship between the two and so knowing one value knowing value of one you can predict the value of two second variable exactly and therefore, this is what we want to sort of through this example. I thought we can show you and emphasize this fact again that covariance 0 just says that the two variables are uncorrelated, but they are need they need not be independent. So, independence goes much deeper than that. Now, very interesting inequality and very powerful one which we see right now if their expectations exist then this is the inequality. That means expectation of x y square expectation of x y square sorry expectation x y whole square expectation x y whole square 1 minus of 1 minus r 1 t into 1 minus r 2 t. So, the same principle will be used and you can show that expectation y square and equality holds if and only if for some constant a y is a x that means there is a linear relationship between x and y. So, if x and y are linearly related then the Cauchy Schwarz inequality would be satisfied as equality otherwise it will be strict inequality. So, now in this we are assuming because see y square is a positive value random variable. So, expectation y square can be either 0 or positive right now if it is 0. So, we are assuming that expectation y square is positive because if it is 0. So, when can expectation y square be 0 because y square again is a positive random variable. So, it will take only positive values and so when you write the expectation it will be possible values of y square into the probabilities with which it takes those values. So, therefore, that will be a positive sum. So, that cannot be 0 unless y is 0. So, that is clear. So, therefore, if expectation y square is 0 it will imply that y is a 0 variable y takes only 0 value and then this inequality will be satisfied because if y is 0 this is 0 and this is 0. So, both sides you have 0 and so the inequality satisfied as equality. So, therefore, it is safe to assume I mean there is no harm in no loss of generality I take it to be.  Now, we can compute the pdf for x 1 the first order statistic independently and then we can confirm that the what we have obtained follows by this formula also. So, let us consider the probability of x 1 less than or equal to x. So, then the complement of this event will be probability x 1 greater than x. This is less than or equal to x. So, here it will be x 1 greater than x the complement. Now, if the smallest statistic the smallest order statistic is greater than 1 it implies that all the statistic must be greater than x. So, x 1 x 2 x n all must be greater than x. So, the 2 events are equivalent and therefore, I can say that probability x 1 greater than x is equal to 1 minus of f x raise to n because the probability for this is 1 minus or for any x for any x i greater than x the probability is 1 minus f x and therefore, since all of them have to be greater than n. So, this is 1 minus f x raise to n and then. So, therefore, I can write the cumulative distribution function for x 1 this should be sorry this should be x f x 1 of x will be 1 minus of this 1 minus of x 1 x 2 x n all greater than x and therefore, this will be 1 minus of 1 minus f x raise to n because this is what you have here and this is equivalent to or for x 1 greater than small x then implies all these are greater than small x and therefore, this is the even.  So, if you substitute j equal to 1 here this will be 1 n c or this should have been n c j n c j. So, n c 1 which is n then f x and this of course, j is 1.  So, the 2 match 0 because t is a real number. So, therefore, this is satisfied. Now, if it is equal to 0 then e x plus t y whole square is equal to 0 if and only if e x y because that means, that this equation is satisfied as equality equal to 0 then the discriminant must be equal to 0. So, this is it right. So, this is 1 part and now we have to we want to show that under for what value of t this will happen. So, you see from here because x plus expectation of x plus t y whole square is 0 this as we have argued earlier the random variable itself must be 0 with probability 1 right x plus t y has to be 0 because otherwise this expectation cannot be 0 right. So, now the thing is that from here itself you can say that we can compute the value of t which makes this happen right which makes the discriminant equal to 0, but you see if I do it here if I take the expectation here it will be e x plus t and let us say the value of t naught t which is the t naught we are looking for. So, this is equal to 0. So, from here we might say that why cannot we compute the value of t naught, but you see I cannot guarantee about e y being non-zero right and so therefore, I cannot compute the value of t naught from here. So, what you do we do is if we multiply this by y then again x y plus t y square is a 0 random variable right because this is 0 and so now if I take the expectation. So, this will be 0 equal to expectation of x y plus t y whole square and so then from here when you bring expectation inside this will be t naught is expectation x y upon e y square. So, therefore, Cauchy Schwarz inequality is satisfied as equality if and only if right if and only if x can be written as so this is t naught. So, from since this is now 0 I have computed the required t naught. So, this will be x is equal to minus e x y upon e y square into y. Now, this is a linear relationship between x and y. So, Cauchy Schwarz inequality is satisfied whenever x and y are related linearly and this will be constant which relates x and y right and we will see the implications of this. Now, using Cauchy Schwarz inequality we can prove the following properties of the correlation coefficient rho and so for any x 1 x 2 any for any for x 1 x 2 any two random variables. We will first show that your value of the correlation coefficient lies between minus 1 and 1 and this is what we meant by this is what we meant by standardization and because covariance the only difference between correlation coefficient and covariance is that you divide covariance by the standard deviations of x 1 and x 2 and then you get a standardized quantity and so this will be between minus 1 and 1 and if it is 1 then they are positively related x 1 and x 2 and if it is minus 1 then they are negatively related. So, we will just go through these properties in a few minutes. In the Cauchy Schwarz inequality replace x 1 by x 1 minus expected x 1 and x 2 by x 2 minus expected x 2. So, then the inequality will look like expectation of x 1 minus e x 1 into expectation of the product x 1 minus e x 1 into x 2 minus e x 2 this whole square is less than or equal to expectation of x 1 minus e x 1 whole square and expectation x 2 minus e x 2 whole square right because the Cauchy Schwarz inequality we obtain for any two random variables x comma y. So, here I can replace the variable x y x 1 minus e x 1 y by e x x 2 minus e x 2. So, this is valid right and so which means that so which reduces to covariance of x 1 x 2 whole square is less than or equal to variance x 1 into variance x 2. So, Cauchy Schwarz inequality really simplifies proving these properties of the correlation coefficient. So, but this is nothing but if you divide this by this then it says that covariance x 1 comma x 2 whole square divided by variance x 1 variance x 2 is less than or equal to 1. So, if I take the square root then and the positive part of the square root then this will be less than or equal to 1 right. So, therefore absolute value of the correlation coefficient is less than or equal to 1. So, the first property is easily proved using the Cauchy Schwarz inequality. And now you want to show that if it is satisfied as equality and remember in the when we prove the Cauchy Schwarz inequality we showed that x will be equal to expected x y upon e y square into y. So, this was it now here I have replaced x by x 1 minus e x 1 and y by x 2 minus e x 2 and here too. So, this becomes so therefore this will be because of our transform variables this is x 1 minus e x 1 is e expected value of x 1 minus e x 1 into x 2 minus e x 2 upon sigma square x 2 and this is x 2 minus e x 2. So, this is the linear relationship between x 1 and x 2, but this quantity you can see is the covariance and then you need variance of standard deviation x 1 into standard deviation x 2. So, this will come here. So, you know just rewrite this expression. So, one sigma x 2 I keep here the other is here now here I am dividing by sigma x 1. So, I multiply and therefore this is what I get now this quantity I did not say here. So, the part 2 was we had to show that rho is equal to 1. So, we start with this. So, if I start with this then in the Cauchy Schwarz we said that if it is satisfied as equality then we get this relationship which then minus e x 2 and so just divide by sigma x 1 here. So, therefore this is the so we said that if that means you are just getting the specialized linear relationship we can write it little differently the same thing here we can write in this way because we are saying that rho is equal to 1. So, then you can predict the actual relationship the actual linear relationship between x 1 and x 2 if you and similarly if rho is equal to minus 1 then there will be a minus sign here the same analysis will be done. So, this is what we are trying to say is that you know your quantity rho is correlation coefficient is measures the linear relationship nicely it captures the relationship linear relationship, but it fails to show you the relationship when it is quadratic or it is non-linear rather I should just say that when the relationship between two variables is non-linear then it fails to. So, being 0 does not help you therefore that means you cannot conclude that the variables are independent if the covariance is 0. So, now let us take this special case and show you that when the two variables are normally distributed then you can show that the variables being uncorrelated implies independence and the other way. Of course, the other way you know if two variables are independent then certainly the correlation coefficient will be 0, but we will show it the other way that is if the correlation coefficient is 0 then the variables are independent and this is valid true for normal distribution only. So, here just look at the bivariate normal distribution. So, bivariate normal distribution you have the means are mu 1 mu 2 variances are sigma 1 square sigma 2 square and the correlation coefficient is rho. So, the expression for the pdf for bivariate normal distribution is 1 upon 2 pi sigma 1 sigma 2 under root 1 minus rho square and therefore, you see this is valid because rho we have just shown is between minus 1 and 1 the absolute value rho is less than or equal to 1.  So, this is the expression for bivariate normal distribution. So, the proposition is that if x 1 and x 2 are independent or x 1 and x 2 are independent if and only if they are uncorrelated. So, this is what we can finally, establish after giving you so many examples where uncorrelation uncorrelated did not mean independence. So, if rho is 0 then you can see immediately from here this expression simplifies this becomes 1 this is also 1. So, it will be 1 upon 2 pi sigma 1 sigma 2 then e raise to minus 1 by 2 and x 1 minus mu 1 upon sigma 1 whole square plus x 2 minus mu 2 upon sigma 2 whole square this term is not there anymore. So, now you can immediately decompose this e raise to this. So, therefore, you can write this as product of 2. So, here it will be 1 upon root 2 say 2 pi I can write 1 upon root 2 pi sigma 1 then the x 1 term cycle you know put together here and the x 2 term is this and you can see that these are 2 p d f's and each of them say this is this is normal mu 1 sigma 1 square p d f separate p d f's and each is normal. So, therefore, in fact so much simplification here the moment you say that they are uncorrelated then they are also independent by our definition. If the product of the if the joint p d f can be written as the product of individual p d f's or the marginal p d f's then we had said that the variables are independent. So, therefore, and so the if and only if part gets proved because rho 0 implies independence and of course, independence implies that rho is 0. So, therefore, the proposition is established that is if x 1 and x 2 are independent then they are if and only if they are uncorrelated provided x 1 and the joint p d f of x 1 and x 2 is a bivariate normal distribution. So, you can see how we are relating the results that we are getting and then of course, all this simply finally, gets used in you know estimating lot of probabilities that are useful to you. So, this I am just discussing the exercise is 6 which I will be discussing at the end of this lecture. So, there is a question that I have posed there and I have asked you to show that correlation coefficient can be written as. So, rho x y's variance x plus variance y minus variance x minus y upon twice under root of variance x into variance y. So, essentially what I am saying is that the covariance x y can be written as variance x plus variance y minus variance x minus y divided by 2 because this anyway figures in the definition of rho x y. So, this answer is straight forward you start with variance x minus y and so, that will be x minus e x minus y of minus e y whole square expectation of this whole square and this open up the brackets. So, this will be expectation of x minus e x whole square plus expectation of y minus e y whole square then minus twice the product term expectation of x minus e x into y minus e y and this can be. So, this I can bring to this side. So, therefore, immediately you have variance x plus variance y minus variance x minus y is equal to this, but this is nothing but your covariance. So, in fact you know you can divide this by rho x rho y and 2 you can take to the other side. So, because see what happens is that all these different expressions for the same thing that you keep using are handy. Sometimes it helps to because you know these values because you from the known standard distributions of these variables then you can immediately write down the correlation coefficient. Now, again see my theme here has been to show you as many examples as possible about you know the covariance or the correlation coefficient being 0, but the variables are not independent and you can see how you know contrived they may look these examples, but they make a point. So, now here x is normal 0 sigma square and suppose y is independent of x. So, x is normally distributed 0 sigma square and y is independent of x. So, and the probability y equal to 1 equal to y minus 1 is half. So, therefore, and this implies that your expectation y is 0. If probability y equal to 1 and y equal to minus 1 is half then your expectation y is 0. Now, define another variable z which is equal to x y. So, you see immediately from here probability z equal to x is half and probability z equal to minus x is also half because y is either 1 or minus 1. Now, if you compute probability z less than a then this will be x less than a and that is with probability half because z is equal to x with probability half and then x is equal to minus x. So, if you are writing. So, you will be writing z less than or equal to a which is minus x less than or equal to a. So, this is equivalent to x greater than or equal to minus a. So, that is what I have written probability x greater than minus a into half, but remember x is normal normally distributed and if x is normally distributed it is symmetric about the origin and so x less than a and x greater than minus a are the same probabilities. Now, if you can carefully see you see in the normal because 0 sigma square. So, therefore, if you take this thing here. So, let us say this is take a to be positive does not matter it is the same thing and it is minus a. So, x less than a is, but you see from the normal thing this area and this area are the same. So, x less than a is this all probability and x greater than minus a is this which are the same because the tails these values are the same. Therefore, this area and this area are the same. Therefore, this event is the same as x less than a and so therefore, this follows from x being symmetric about the origin. So, again it is not necessary here that this should be normally distributed because I think anything which is symmetric about the origin would have done the job. So, therefore, this says that and so this is equal to I should have put it here. So, from here it follows this is probability x less than a. So, that means z and x have the same cumulative density function have the same c d f which implies that they have the same p d f also. So, x and z have the same c d f and they have the same p d f. Now, if you compute the correlation coefficient between x and z that will be expectation x z minus e x into e z upon sigma x into sigma z, but e x z is expectation x square into y and your e x and e z. So, yeah e x is 0 and therefore, e z will also be 0 because this is normal. So, yeah so that means you need a distribution which is symmetric about origin. So, therefore, then it is expectation will also be 0. So, therefore, I do not think you need n to be this x to be normally distributed fine. So, then this is part is 0 and this is e x square y because x y and x and y being independent this is e x square into e y right, but e y is also 0 remember y is again symmetric y is 1 and y is minus 1. So, with probability half both the values have equal probability. So, e y is 0. So, e y being 0 you get this as 0. So, therefore, the correlation coefficient is 0, but x and z are completely dependent by definition as we saw right x and z are completely different this thing because they have the same c d f they have the same p d f, but still they are uncorrelated. So, this is again you know I am just wherever I get these kind of examples I just thought I will bring them to you to show you the and. So, right now we have said reasonably good amount joint probability density functions which was so more than one variable then we talked about how we can obtain joint density functions of more than one variable. Now, let me talk of order statistics. So, you know a further application of the same concept. So, see if you have a sample of size n random sample. So, x 1, x 2, x n are the observed values and the c d f. So, they are coming from the same distribution. So, you can say these are also identically independently distributed random variables because it is a random sample. So, the c d f is that means the cumulative density function is denoted by f and the probability density function is denoted by small f. So, when you order the observations, so this will be the smallest one. So, therefore, this will be the notation. So, x 1 less than or equal to x 2 less than or equal to x n. So, this is the ordered arrangement of the n sample values that you obtained. Now, so the question arises can we find of course, one would want to talk about the joint density function of all x 1, x 2, x n and in particular you would want to find out the density function p d f. So, either both of them are continuous or both are discreet. This is when we are defining the conditional expectation. So, the nature of the two variables should be same in a sense that either both are continuous or both are discreet. So, then the definition is of course, straightforward because now x equal to x. So, this is fixed this is given to you. So, now to find the expectation of y given x equal to x would be from minus infinity to infinity y times f conditional distribution of y given x. So, this will be the definition. This is the case when x and y both are continuous and in the discreet case it will be the summation will be for all x for which p x x is greater than 0 because remember this conditional p d f will have p x x in the denominator. So, therefore, we will only consider summation over those x is for which this is positive and then of course, probability y given x for all y is for which this is positive because otherwise the product will be 0. So, under this condition you can for the discreet case when x and y are both discreet you can define the expected conditional expectation by this formula. So, we will start from the take this example of a discreet case. So, where the joint density function is given as probability x equal to x and y equal to y. So, in from this table you can immediately see x equal to 1 and y equal to 1. So, this is the probability. So, you can read the table this is 1 2 1 3 1 4 and so on. And you see when you add up these probabilities they give you what they are the values of x equal to 1 x equal to 2 x equal to 3 x equal to 4. So, you immediately get the probability for y equal to 1. So, therefore, when you add up these rows the numbers give you the marginal pdf of probability mass function for y. So, this 0.2 is the probability when y is equal to 1. Similarly, y equal to 2 because the possible values of x are 1 2 3 4. So, when you add up these probabilities 1 2 2 2 3 2 and 4 2 you get the probability of y equal to 2. So, that adds up to 0.5 and this is similarly probability y equal to 3 is 0.3 and these 3 must add up to 1. Similarly, here when you add up the probabilities of for the conditional probabilities x equal to 1 and y varies from 1 2 and 3 they will give you the marginal for x. So, this will be the probability x equal to 1 this will be the probability x equal to 2 x equal to 3 and x equal to 4 and they also add up to 1. So, now from our definition see I am writing f whereas, it should be p's but does not matter because in the discrete case we are in the used to habit of writing the p in terms of p's the probabilities. So, it does not matter, but you see now here you can immediately find out probability conditional probability of x when y is 2. So, conditional probability x and y is equal to 2. So, for example, here when you want to compute conditional probability of x equal to 1 given y is equal to 2. So, calculations are simple y is equal to 2 is given you are given by this and so conditional probability. So, you will divide by a probability y equal to 2 which is point divided by standard deviation of x 1 and standard deviation of x 2 is equal to 2 is 0.1 divided by 0.5 which turns out to be 0.2. Similarly, conditional probability of x equal to 2 given that y is equal to 2 will be this joint density function of x equal to 2 y equal to 2 divided by the probability of y equal to 2 which is 0.5. So, again 0.1 upon 0.5 is 0.2 and similarly the other two computations and if you remember I have not analytically proved it, but we should be able to maybe that is what we should do next time. So, here in any case you see these probabilities also add up to 1 as they should because this is now the you have got the conditional which is also a probability mass function and therefore, the probabilities here should add up to 1. So, it is 0.4 which is then 0.54 and so 0.54 plus 0.46 is 1. So, you just verification right. So, now we want to define the compute the expected value of x given y is equal to 2. So, yes I mean you just take the definition that we wrote down. So, here the marginals are given to you point this is be 1.2. So, the expectation here would be when x is equal to 1 when x is equal to 1 then the probability that you obtain oh I am computing it for y equal to 2. So, we have computed these probabilities. So, when x is equal to 1. So, when you are computing this expectation y is equal to 2. So, then it will be value of x equal to 1 into the probability that you get the probability mass function when y is 2 and x is 1. So, the expression that I wrote down see here it will be you are computing see y is fixed. So, you are computing the expectation of x given y is equal to 2. So, as x takes different values given y. So, you will multiply by the corresponding probability when x is for example, x is 1 and y is 2. So, x is 1 and y is 2 this is the probability when x is 2 and given y is equal to 2 then this is 0.2. So, we will take those probabilities the conditional probabilities and multiply by the corresponding values that x takes. So, the conditional probability are here this is this 0.14 is this and 0.46 is this. So, I multiply by the corresponding values that x takes and therefore, this is 2.28. In fact, I am going to talk some more in terms of the functional aspect of expected value of in other words instead we can see it here when I am talking of expectation of x given y equal to capital Y equal to small y. So, you see because you are taking expectation with respect to x. So, then you will be this will turn out to be a function of y. So, I started giving out an example, but we will discuss this in detail in the next lecture. So, this will be a function of y because you have taken expectation with respect to x. So, that part is gone x part is gone it is no longer a function of x, but it will continue to be a function of y and then we will see what kind of relationships we can predict on what how we can use this. So, but initially through this example I just want to show you how you go about computing these conditional expectations. This is the whole idea. So, similarly you can compute the expectation of x given y is equal to 1. So, now I did not do this detail calculation here, but you can see that when you wanting to compute for example, here x is 1 and then given y is equal to 1. So, x is 1 you will be writing that probability. So, I will divide 0.02 by 0.2 because y is equal to 1. So, y is equal to 1 is this see you simply have just as we computed the probabilities for conditional probabilities for x equal to 1 given y is equal to 2. I simply divided these numbers by the corresponding probability y equal to 2. So, here also when y is equal to 1 you divide these probabilities by this and you get the conditional probabilities of x equal to 1 y is equal to 1 then here 0.06 divided by 0.2 will give you the probability that x is to conditional probability x is equal to 2 and y is equal to 1. So, this way you can so there is no. So, that is what all I have done I have divided this by 0.2. So, then I have written it as 0.1 into 1. So, computing the conditional expectation. So, multiply by 1 then similarly 2 times 0.06 divided by 0.2 and then 3. So, 0.08 divided by 0.2 and then 0.04 divided by 0.02 and 4 into that. So, that number comes out to be 2.7 and in the same way you compute the expected value of x given y is equal to 3. So, here I will take 0.07 divided by 0.3 into 1 and 0.03 divided by 0.3 into 2 and so on. So, you will compute those expectation and now as I am saying that if you take this expectation and yes this I have just now written down this expression we will spend lot of time on it trying to show you. But, computationally you see if I now want to compute the expected value here and as I told you this is a function of y. So, when you want to compute expectation through conditional expectation of x y given equal to y then all I have to do is to multiply this corresponding probability for example 2.7 I will multiply by the probability that y is equal to 1 because this is the conditional expectation of x given y equal to 1. So, I will multiply by. So, you can treat this as a function of y. So, this into the probability that y takes the value 1. So, that will be 0.2 into 2.7. Similarly, this will be the condition this is the conditional expectation of x given y equal to 2. So, this again will be 2.88 to the probability that y is equal to 2 which is 0.5. So, 0.5 into 2.88 and similarly here the probability that y takes the value 3 and that into the expectation here conditional expectation. So, this number comes out to be 2.82 and we can verify that this is actually equal to e raise to x because this is the marginal density of x. So, to compute the expectation of x I will multiply 0.19 into 1 plus 0.19 into 2 plus 3 times 0.23 plus 4 times 0.39 which again gives me the number 2.82. So, the two numbers are equal.


Hello everyone, I am Atulesh Ha and I have got rank All India 131 in UPSC CSC 2021. I would like to discuss with you how in my five successive attempts I was able to improve and build upon my preparation and I finally got this success. So a lot of us right from the start realize that bureaucracy is something that has charmed us, we wish to be a part of it and we want to be aspiring to join it. So that is something that has always fascinated me right from my youth in my school days and I also began preparing for it in my college. So in the last year of my college I thought that okay I would like to give an attempt. So as soon as I was out of my college in 2016 I gave my first prelims. I was testing the waters for the UPSC, however it so happened that UPSC tested me and I flunked the prelims. I realized one very important part that you cannot take this exam lightly or any of its aspect as unprepared. There are three steps, prelims, mains and interval and we have to be diligently prepared for all three of them. In my second attempt of 2017 I could clear the prelims because I had dedicated time and effort into it. However I could not qualify the mains because I was lacking content and answer writing. We need to realize that these two are the pillars of success in mains. So we have to have good content and we have to have good answer writing. In 2019 I again qualified the prelims and I had better prepared for the mains. I had more content practiced answer writing as well. However, unfortunately it so happened that my marks did improve in mains but they were not good enough for an interview call, therefore I failed my prelims again. In the 2019 mains I realized that structuring of answers was very important and it was something that was missing. I discussed it with my peer group, I discussed it with my mentors and I realized that I need to work on that. In 2019 as prelims do near, I was confident of clearing the prelims as I had done it in the past two attempts with flying colors. But here UPSC again proved unpredictable and I could not qualify prelims by a very small margin. This was earth shattering at that moment. That was my fourth failed attempt and I was very devastated when the prelims result came out. However, I gathered myself up and restarted preparing for my fifth attempt. This goes on to prove that we cannot be overconfident about ourselves at any stage of the examination. All three stages of the exam need dedicated, diligent preparation every year or every attempt that we are about to give. Then finally in the fifth attempt of 2021, I was able to clear my prelims.  However, it was a long journey, it was an arduous journey and there are few important pointers that I would like to share with you to help you understand what mistakes you can avoid going ahead in this preparation. The first and foremost learning that I have from my journey is we have to treat each stage with equal respect, give ample amount of preparation and time. We cannot procrastinate at any stage, don't bluff yourselves least of all try to bluff the UPSC examiner. If you are feeling stuck at any stage, take help from coachings from your mentors, discuss and deliberate your answers with your peer groups, they help you a lot especially if they are also into UPSC preparation. The syllabus is very important, we need to memorise it very clearly, we need to know each aspect of it and prepare accordingly. Answer writing is also a very important aspect, fortunately my peer groups and my mentors always helped me work on it and therefore I never gave up hope. I kept myself motivated because I was backed by them and I also felt that I am making improvements over the years. At the end, we need to realise very sincerely that not everyone is going to qualify this exam. There are very slim chances of either of us qualifying even if we give our heart and soul for this preparation, therefore there is no need to take failures as the end all be all but rather as a stepping stones to success. The failure doesn't define your intellect, it does not quantify your wisdom, it only is an indication of your preparation for this specific examination. Whether your heart was not into it, whether you missed something is something that we need to analyse and assess and work upon. There is no shame or stigma in having a plan B during your preparation as well. It can be regarding other government jobs or state services or even private sector jobs which you have an efficiency in. Because there is no certainty in this exam, the only certainty is that it will help us to understand and realise the status of our country and the various institutions. It helps us make a better individual but it does not define whether or not we are going to qualify this exam. Also having a plan B keeps our mind at ease when we are preparing for this examination and we are able to better focus our resources during our preparation. Each of us who has been through this journey, whether short or whether long, has realised something very important. We have learnt some things that are very important and we need to keep reminding ourselves that whatever we have learnt we will apply that in our life whenever we come across be it the constitutional ethos or values of our society that we have imbibed during this preparation journey. That is the foremost lesson UPSC examination teaches us. Thank you.


Happy Death Day, that's a hell of a title. My name is Brenny Keith Avery, and this is just my opinion. Hey what's going on guys, thank you so much for tuning in to my opinion slash review. For a happy death day and before we get into the review, please help your boy out. Go ahead and click that subscribe button become one of my subscribers. Also click the bell so you can be notified when I make uploads and go ahead and click that thumbs up button. Let's see if we can get this review, this opinion of mine to 100 likes. So happy death day, this is taking a lot of notes from Groundhog's Day with Bill Murray that came out many many many years ago and you know that was a great movie, a lot of movies recently or not even recently over the past few decades have tailored from that movie and now this is happy death day doing the same thing. This is being produced by Blumhouse Productions that is, I was about to say that's Michael Bay's production company but it's not, it's Jason Blum, Michael Bay's production company is Platinum Dooms, so excuse me there. But Jason Blum is behind the Blumhouse production and they are the ones that are doing this. They are known for making cheap movies and making a good profit off of it but there's nothing wrong with that. There's you know there's no rules that say that you can't make movies for cheap and make a profit out of it so you know I want to give them credit there. But just going into this movie as far as my expectations I was just kind of saying okay this is just going to be like a stupid you know junior high high school slasher flick with dumb actors, dumb dialogue and it's just not going to be that good but you know I tried, you know I was going in trying to keep an open mind and you know not trying not to have expectations but you know that's kind of how I felt going in even though I still didn't see many trailers I was just like oh my goodness I mean this is just some money grab you know like I'm tired of studios doing this but you know hey you know what the hell let's go in and see what the movie is about and this is of course being directed not directed but oh no let's let's talk about the director director is Christopher Landon and if you're familiar with his work he did I think this is his sixth directorial film that he's put on screen he did two short screens short screens short films I believe the first one was like in 1996 he's also his major film his first major film was paranormal activities the Mark ones which was not good at all and also what was it called Scott's the zombie apocalypse like something like the scouts gone to the zombie apocalypse which was not good at all that was incredibly stupid so you know he really didn't have a good track record you know as far as his films are concerned but you know Christopher Landon he did he did do happy death date and I'll go ahead and be honest with you like the first 10 minutes of this movie I was like oh this is exactly what I thought it was gonna be you know this movie was just copying off all the old stereotypes from the past I mean remember when Scream came out I think that was an I was going to say 95 but I or 99 but I think that was like 95 96 or 97 I can't really remember but then I had a scary movie come out and like I think that was like 99 or 2001 or 2000 I can't remember let me know in the comments or whatever but I remember a scary movie that would you know of course it's making fun of all scary movies or whatever and in that scene they had a scene at the very beginning in that movie they had a scene at the very beginning of the movie to where it was this Caucasian woman running and there was a sign right here this says safety this way says death and she chose a death way and she fell down and she doesn't get up you know and you know scared movies are always been made fun of because they do things like that that are very frustrating to where you like screaming at the screen like you know get up you know and that's kind of how the first 10 minutes of this movie was I was like yep this is gonna be stupid you know I don't like it and as what is her name of Jessica I forgot the actress's name but her name in the movie is called like Trey or Tree and you know it says that she was in La La Land that came out at the end of last year and I don't remember her you know in that movie because I did see La La Land once in the theaters and I really did like it a lot but she's the main actress in this movie she's having the Groundhog Day treatments to where she's waking up every day at 9 0 1 on her birthday and she's just trying to go out through her day but she's getting murdered on her birthday hence that's why the movie is called happy death day and she's just trying to figure out who the killer is and essentially has you know nine lives a hundred lives or you know infinite amount of lives to you know figure it out and that's the plot of the movie just you know for that and I don't want to ruin any more for you than I already have but that's pretty much you probably already know that from the trailer and if you can get past the first 10 minutes you know I was wrong because this movie did not suck it was not bad it was not horrible it was actually pretty dang good and I'm very surprised like that and because of that and like the one of the main things that I really did like about the movie is the main actress a name and I have to lick up her name because she just deserves the credit because Jessica Roth okay her name is Jessica Roth and the role she's playing is Tree Gelman and you know her last name does not matter but you know she's the main actress in this movie and she did a great job I really do like her because when I'm seeing movies like this or normally when people are saying movies like this slash or fiction like I said you're always screaming at the screen like man I would have died I would have done this I would have done that I would have you know I would have hid in this corner over here etc etc etc and after you know the first time that she dies in the movie and she wakes up the next the next day living the day for the second time she's like you know wait what's going on you know this kind of seems familiar maybe what I was maybe this is a dream I'm having deja vu but when she dies again for the second time and she wakes up on the third day she's like a completely different person she she's like smart she's not a dumb character she's a very smart character and using reason and logic and rationale to try to figure this out and I really like that because I was saying to myself I was putting myself trying to put myself in her shoes and I was just like hey if I was in this situation these are the things that I would do these are the steps that I would take and guess what she did all of that so I was like okay great yeah you know we got a great movie here going you know we got a great character and I am on board I actually remember getting to the edge of my seat just trying to figure out like okay what is she gonna do next how is she going to figure this out and her surrounding environment I really did appreciate it too she's on a college campus and I have been a college before up and did in a UNT go Eagles Eagle Claw and they did a really good job of portraying college life you know in the movie I mean there was a lot of things that they were just you know random things that were doing like you know just you know students walking around on campus dorm rooms you know fraternities sororities parties things like that things that we see in movies all the time but for some reason the college scene and this movie really did speak volumes to me and it was all believable you know you had a nice variety of personalities and I was like man I remember going to you know having a class with a girl like that and I remember you know going to class with a guy like that you know I'm saying so you know that really hit home for me and just you know on top of I already liking a good character you know I was liking the environment as well now I kind of did lose faithful a little bit because some of the things I would even though I really did enjoy the movie there was some things that was frustrating me just a little bit but not enough to ruin the movie and that is just kind of like you know when the killer is chasing tree in the movie like sometime he's like over exaggerating or she is over exaggerating with like how you know you know how she's trying to kill the protagonist like you're running full sprint and then you're able to turn right on a beeline and jump over this and duck under this but right when you get to the kill you just stumbled and over exaggerate your knife and you just completely miss like oh I missed you you went over there oh I I'm just like okay come on that's a little corny you don't have to you know do with that much as you know you're overexaggerated over exaggerating I don't want to say just a little bit but a lot and they did that I got a couple of times you know within the movie but like I said it's not enough to ruin the whole experience for you they're just kind of like little nitpicks here and there but then I mean the family's progressing on and you know she's you know tree is talking to this person this person just trying to figure out what's going on and you know she's getting closer and closer and closer but at the same time she as soon as it feels like every time she takes a step forward she's taking two back and it's just like really frustrating and like to like after the fourth and fifth or sixth time that she's dying she's just losing her mind and just having a freaking meltdown and like I could sympathize with her like man you know I like you're doing all you're making all the right moves all the right decisions to like figure out who is killing you and you just can't figure out and it's driving you crazy and the acting that she did in these particular scenes it spoke volumes and I really did like it I'm like you know I was convinced you know I was like wow she really is terrified you know you really can't talk to too many people about it because they're gonna think you're crazy but even if you do talk to them about it and they understand everything that is going on and they like okay I'm gonna dedicate my whole life to help you and you know get you out of this situation when you die they don't remember that you know they got to start you got to start over so you know I really did appreciate that and movies like this where characters have to you know they live the same day over and over is really just a self-evaluation picture or film or project you know when the character there are for the most part then kind of despicable they're not the best people they're kind of selfish rude and really just care about themselves and you know they're though that they are those type of people and sometimes those type of people need to look in the mirror and realize their ways and ways that they are hurting other people and there was a good example of that in this movie and you know I did appreciate that as well and towards the end I mean you know like there's a montage towards the middle of the movie when she's just trying you know and sometimes she's terrified and she's just like I don't know what to do I'm losing my freaking mind but at different times I mean she died like 15 20 times in this movie and the other time she's like you know embracing like hey you know I don't care you know even if I you know today I'm just gonna be super nice to everybody today I'm gonna be super mean everybody or this day I'm just gonna walk around naked and just you know go like this and like hey you know and you know and and it's fun you know and it's funny too because I mean she just doesn't care and she's just trying to make the best of it and each time she died she's just learning more about the situation where she's the situation that she's in and you know her current situation like you know her looking in the mirror and evaluating you know what type of person she is wanting to be better wanting to be the best version of herself now towards the end of the twisted well no I don't want to talk about towards the end of the movie yet as far as all the killings are concerned they did come out of nowhere here and there which is fine that's not a knock that's a praise because you know you don't want everything to be unexpected but at the same time I was just kind of saying to myself okay you like I know the killer is wearing all black and has this you know silly goofy baby mask on it's like really creepy but sometimes like I just was the killer would have used a little bit discretion you know like sometimes the killer is just acting like there you know that the killer is there and then the person he's trying to kill is just on they're on the campus all by themselves they're like the only ones in the world or something like that like no you know there is a such thing as witnesses so you know the film could have you know wrote that a little bit better you know but it's not that big deal but towards the end of the movie I mean once you think everything is figured out I mean because they were they they reveal the killer kind of early on and I was just calling like who the hell is this killer you know I don't know who he who he or she is like you know what's going on how does this person relate to the main character or whatever and so I was just like a little lost like I was ready for the movie to end so I can wait in the hall in the hallway of the theater and just kind of ask people that's coming out like okay who was the killer like I don't know who that person was but haha towards the end of the movie there is a twist and there is like multiple twists and multiple revelations and I was like oh snap I did not see that coming you know and that was just really clever and I really did appreciate it and you know overall guys I really did enjoy this film I mean I'm not saying that you have to rest the theaters to see it if you already have if you already had plans to see this movie you was already excited of course go see it you know but if he was a little skeptical and just like ah you know this is gonna be like a dumb high school movie where you know people are making out in the back row or whatever I don't know um you know no go treat yourself it was a really good move and I did appreciate it um it was funny um even though it's familiar with the Ground Halls Day theme you know they there still was a nice little fresh take that the director Christopher Landon was able to put together when he directed this film and like I said for the third or fourth time I really did enjoy it uh it was funny it was thrilling it wasn't scary at all but you know it was an overall great movie that I really did appreciate and um I think you will too if I have to rate happy death day out of a one out of ten I would give it an eight out of ten yes an eight out of ten but guys that's just my opinion have you seen happy death day or do you want to see it have I turned you on have I turned you off do you agree with me or do you disagree with me let me know in the comment section below let's get this conversation going and keep it flowing if you like this video go ahead and give me the thumbs up and if you don't like the video that's fine just leave me a comment below why and still give me the thumbs up since you're watching this video on youtube go ahead and subscribe to my youtube channel become one of my subscribers so you can get all the content that I have to provide click the bell so you can be notified when I make uploads you can also go to my website check me out there bookmark and I do have written reviews and also guys look me up on social media Facebook Instagram Twitter all that good stuff it's right there at the bottom of the screen and I made it very easy for you guys by providing a link for all that good stuff down in the description box below but guys I just want to thank you again for tuning in to my opinion slash review for a happy death day directed by Christopher Landon and before you go don't forget that my name is Brandon Keith Avery and that's just my opinion peace