This is ThinkTech Hawaii, the immunity matters here. Bingo. Yeah. I'm Jay Fidel. This is ThinkTech. This is Research in Manoa, R-I-M, and it's the one o'clock block on a given Monday. Well, Monday. Okay. Now, we have a special guest we want to show off. Okay. And she is Dr. Philamine Perlon. She is a professor at the School of Ocean Earth Science and Technology, a visiting colleague, if you will, at the School of Ocean Earth Science and Technology in UH Manoa. And she's also from Imperial College in the UK. Right? You get that right? That's where I got my doctorate. Okay. What's your visiting from where? I'm visiting from London in the UK. Okay. Where I live. Okay. I mean, given all the trouble in London these days, I can understand why you want to be here for a little while. That's not at all why I'm here. I don't approve of winters in London. Ah, simple. Nothing complicated or scientific about that. Nope. So you spoke just a week ago at the Science Cafe, which is part of the Hawaii Academy of Science, and you spoke about deep-sea mining, which I think attracted a lot of people because they wanted to know about that, because it's an intersection between science, especially the science of ocean science, and business, and mining, mining, mining. And technology. This is think tech. All of this connects. And I think the average person, I'm sorry I wasn't there, I was tied up that day, but the average person would like to know more about that because it bespeaks of the future, the future in so many ways, especially economic and multinational and political. And that's why I want to tell everybody the scary part. The scary part is that Philharmonia is also a lawyer. Uh-oh. I ran away to sea later. Why did you do that? Well, the sort of law I was doing was international trade based in Europe, the former Treaty of Rome. I became rather frustrated with the direction that was taking, and revisited my career decisions when my law firm, which was completely wonderful, offered me a partnership and thought that I would actually like to return to my first love, which was marine science, which I did. But now it's come a combination, isn't it? Completely. It could not have been more useful to still have that law degree. Can you describe that connection for me, the combination and how it works for you? Yes, with pleasure, because I hope it might inspire other people when they want to revisit their careers that they don't need to throw away an entire degree. They might make it work for them. Marine science is governed by an international treaty called the Law of the Sea Convention. And marine science, and in fact all marine activities or activities on land, which is not very well known, that affect the marine environment is governed by this treaty. So those of you who are thinking about carbon dioxide emissions, for example, yes, it is covered, and it is being comprehensively ignored by the international community. However, we're here to talk about marine mining. When I decided to go back and become completely qualified in oceanography, which meant to go up to the PhD level, I became really, really interested in deep sea manganese crusts and nodules. Now, these are ocean precipitates that are found in the deep sea. They drop to the bottom. Yes, I'm sorry, yes, absolutely. They form in situ, in their place, around little, in the case of nodules, they form around little nuclei like shark's teeth, for example, and the crust form on sea mounts. But the principle is the same, they need a hard surface to form on. I became really, really interested in those. And with regard to the nodules, the most interesting resource of nodules, which is for their metal content. Ferris manganese. In fact, manganese is probably the least interesting of the metals. The ferris, then. The iron is even less interesting. The most interesting content for the nodules are copper, cobalt, nickel, and zinc, and some molybdenum. And right now, cobalt is the one that is of particular interest, because of its huge use in all of our electronic devices that everyone has to have. And it is also a strategic metal, and it is also very difficult to find on land in a context where you can have security of supply that is also environmentally and socially licensed. What's the most strategic metal? What is this? A strategic metal, anything used in any kind of defense purpose. Yes, yes, yes. But your question was, how did the law of the sea link with these? Well, these nodules are in areas beyond national jurisdiction. The most important resource is, in fact, not very far away from here at all. You have Hawaii here and Mexico there. We have two fracture zones called the Clarion Clipperton Fracture Zone, and the most interesting resource is right there, but it is in international waters, which means that no single country can go and recover them without first seeking permission from an authority that is international as well that has been set up to govern the exploration and the exploitation of these resources. What's the name of that authority? It is called the International Seabed Authority, and it is headquartered in Kingston, Jamaica. It has 167 countries, plus the European Union that are party to the law of the sea convention and being party to the convention makes them also members of the authority. Anything you do out there in international waters with regard to nodules means the approval of 167 countries plus the EU. Now this is... The US is not a party to the law of the sea convention. This is a sad thing. The US has, however, signed one part of one of the amending treaties to the law of the sea convention, but it has not ratified that signature. So you know the old problem with international law, and I don't have to tell you, is the problem of how it would enforce it. Oh, it is utterly unenforceable unless the countries that are subject to it wish it to be enforced against them. I enlarge they do, but it is a complicated way to implement your law. So it's a theoretical thing more than... Oh, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. It is not at all. Our background over there, is that Ferro-Manganese nodules? Those are Ferro-Manganese nodules. And they are, in fact, I believe quite a representative field of what you can find in the Clarion-Clipperton zone, and that is actually quite a rich coverage of nodules. And those, the blue objects there, the rock-looking objects, those are the nodules? Those are the nodules, and you must note, because this is very important when you look at the environmental consequences of removing them, those nodules are resting on sediments. And what you have there is a hard sub, bottom, a hard substrate, which is the nodule, on a soft substrate, which is the sediments. And one of the two issues that are environmentally of concern, and which have really, really interesting technical possibilities, is to remove those nodules in such a way that you do not leave pure sediments behind because, in the deep sea, there are two types of organisms in this particular context. There are the ones that like to live on sediments, and the ones that like to live on nodules, and the two do not mix. So if you remove all the nodules, all the organisms that like to live on nodules have no place to go back to. So one of the interesting technical challenges in deep sea mining is to design a mining system that either leaves either nodules behind or types of nodules that, well, no, actually, that it does anyway, that's the problem. That's one other problem to work with, but I'll give you that one in a minute. Either leaves nodules behind or substitutes for the nodules, or mines in such a way that you leave little strips with nodules on the sea floor. And all of this, it's a technical question and it's also a mining approach question. Because you could, for example, design a miner that will suction up the nodules at one end. Meaning a machine. Exactly, yeah, a mining, yes, thank you. And then leaves others behind as you collect them from one end and send them up to the top of the ship.  Or there are several different ways you can go about it. Now, the other major environmental problem, remember the sediments? Well, you're gonna generate a big cloud of sediment as you're going over the sea floor. This is also not a good idea because you want to minimize that sediment if you possibly can, because there are out there filter feeders who need quite clear water in order to be able to filter their food out of the water. Now, if you clog up those filters, you know that from your dryer, you've got issues where you've got the same thing in the deep sea. So another really, really interesting technical challenge is to design your mining vehicle so that it generates the least amount of sediment. And another area that is really important and that we need to have a lot more information on is to find that you will generate some form of sediment, but how far does that cloud go? And how thick is it going to be? And how quickly will it attenuate with distance? And all of this requires a lot of in-sea-to experimentation, like also deciding what would be the best way to mine to leave some form of hard substrate behind. You also need in-sea-to experimentation to do some form of mimicking, at least, of what the mining might look like in the real world so you can start looking where the sediment plumes go. It isn't happening now. It is not happening now. What is happening now is exploration. And exploration involves, at this point, three big elements, all of which are controlled and mandated by the International Seabed Authority in these areas, because this is all still in international waters. Resource assessment, in other words, how many kilos per square meter are there and how variable is this resource? Because one thing that's really interesting about manganese nodules is you can have a really rich deposit, which you see here. You go a couple of hundred meters to the north or to the south or to the west, and it could be much less, could also be much more, and it could also be not there at all. And what keeps me going as a research scientist is that we still don't fully understand how nodules form. It is still one of the great mysteries of the deep sea. When you do understand it, that would be easier to find, right? In terms of resource assessment, it will be very much easier to find, yes. And it'll be also very much easier to decide how much, right now we think it's not a renewable resource at all because what we do know about nodules we think is that they form very, very slowly. So it's not like you can hoover them up and in 50 years you can come back and there will be nodules again. Probably not. It will take longer. So it would be really, really helpful because not only is the quantity variable, but remember those metals I talked about that made them so interesting? Yes, well, the content of the metals in those nodules is also very variable. So that is another element of the research to do with nodules that we do not. Because if you're gonna mine them, you need to know what you have. You can separate them for useful purposes. Yes. I mean, if in one area, the cobalt content all of a sudden plummets to almost nothing, then you don't want to go there. Even though there might be a lot of nodules there, it's not that interesting if the cobalt isn't enough, for example. These nodules are not everywhere. They're in certain places in the world, right? Well, actually, the nodule forming mechanism is, in that sense, quite ubiquitous. But the ones that form with this particular type of metal composition, though they're not very, very found ubiquitously. You've got this major resource here in the Clarence-Clipperton zone. You've got another huge resource in the Central Indian Ocean Basin. You've got a few in the Atlantic Ocean. You've got quite a few, but smaller resources in the South Pacific. But no, the ones that are really attractive, the Goldilocks nodules, if you want to call them like that. Yes, yes, yes. There's not that many places in the world. Now, you mentioned, where I see this, that southeast of the Hawaiian Islands, not very far. Well, not very far, I think. I'm trying to think now, 1,600, 2,000 nautical miles, depending on where you are in the Clarence-Clipperton zone. More than a canoe ride. Definitely. There are deposits of these nodules out there. And we have a special benefit in the sense that it's not that far from where we are. Well, actually, Hawaii is hugely lucky, and so is the United States, because the entire Hawaiian Island archipelago has, and also the other areas that are associated in various ways to the United States, like Johnson-Atoll, et cetera. There are nodules, and more importantly, in this context, ferromanganese cross-nodules. Within the US, EEZ, the US doesn't really need to go to the Clarence-Clipperton zone if it wanted to have those resources available. It's got it within its own jurisdictional waters. And in fact, we were the first here in the US and the state of Hawaii long ago to do the first environmental impact study. It was state-of-the-art, and it's still extremely good for the mining of manganese crusts, and also to the certain, and processing, by the way, processing, this was also gonna be done in the islands. This was back in the 70s, and I think it was what was then called the Minerals Management Service for the state of Hawaii. It's changed names since then. Yeah, we've got what we need here. So it's not, this is not shallow. This is deep sea. These nodules are at 4,500 to 5,000 meters. Meters, so that's 12,000 feet. That's 12,000 to 15,000 feet. And you get a, yeah. That's a lot, that's two miles. It's deep. And so how do you get down there? I know you've been on dozens and dozens of ocean voyages. Well, actually only probably two dozen. It's been 25 so far. Okay, dozen times two. I don't want to exaggerate. We're scientists here, right? No, no, no, no. I mean accurately. I'm coming up to number 25 in two weeks. Okay, well, now you're on the surface on these voyages. You can't go down two miles to look at the nodules. Oh, yes, you can. Oh, can you? Oh, how do you do that? Oh, I wanna know how you do that. Yes, you can. Unfortunately, we no longer at this university have the submarine capacity to do this we used to. And the US generally doesn't have a great deal of submarine research capacity anymore. We do still have our wonderful Alvin, which I believe has just been reconfigured to go down to 4,500 meters. But other countries, unfortunately, are doing much better than we are at this. But I was lucky when we still had the two Pisces subs here to do my... Oh, the two Pisces, I've seen them. They were at Sand Island and Snug Harbor in Sand Island, the university. Yeah, they're now, well, the last time I saw them, they were out of Makapu at the point there, just where Makai has its pier. Yeah, yeah, Makai pier. Yeah, it's always really lucky. I got to do all of my master's work with the two Pisces on Crosseema, which has a huge ferromanganese crust resource, in fact, and it's just south of the big island. But the Pisces were never able to go any deeper than 2,000 meters, which is already pretty deep. But not deep enough to look at these men? No, no, no, no. So what we have now are, and the countries that are interested in mining the nodules, and by the way, the countries out there have to get special permission from the International Seabed Authority to go out there. And they're given usually, usually it ends up being a 75,000 square kilometer license area, yeah. It's bigger, but then it gets legally weird, and you guys don't want to hear about that. But it ends up with about 75,000 square kilometers that they can then go, and then according to all the criteria that are set by the authority under the auspices of the Law of the Sea Convention, they can do the resource assessment. They have to do a huge amount of research, simply to establish environmental baseline so that when they start mining. As a condition of the license. Oh, it's not only is it a mega condition, it is very, very, very closely observed. Yeah, observed, okay. Every year there has to be a complete report sent to the ISA, and I've seen some of these, they're like this. It is cost an enormous amount of money, but for all of this, a resource assessment, and then towards the end of the exploration, it's possible to start doing a bit of tech development. So, research assessment, environmental baseline, and tech development. That means equipment. That means equipment, but that also means videos. That means everything that goes on down there is imaged. Totally imaged. I want to take a minute to sort of soak this in. And I suppose what I'm really interested in is the hypothetical, which I will ask you when we come back from this break. And the hypothetical is suppose I'm China, and I really feel a need for cobalt, and I decide that I don't care about the CBET authority. I'm going to take my ships down there. I'm going to mine some right now, because I have the technology, and I have the political will to do this, and if they want to chase me, they can chase me, but I'm doing it. Right after this break, I'd like to hear what you would say if that ever happened. It may. We'll be right back. Hi, Mabuhay. My name is Amy Ortega Anderson, inviting you to join us every Tuesday here on Pinoy Power Hawaii. With Think Tech Hawaii, we come to your home at 12 noon every Tuesday. We invite you to listen, watch, for our mission of empowerment. We aim to enrich and lighten, educate, entertain, and we hope to empower. Again, maraming, salamat po, Mabuhay, and aloha. Aloha, my name is Mark Shklav. I am the host of Think Tech Hawaii's Law Across the Sea. Law Across the Sea is on Think Tech Hawaii every other Monday at 11 a.m. Please join me where my guests talk about law topics and ideas and music and Hawaii Anna all across the sea from Hawaii and back again, aloha. We're talking about research of Manoa, some of the most interesting kind. Filamine Verlan, Dr. Filamine Verlan of UH Manoa, SOAS, and also of the UK. And she is a global researcher of ferromagnese nodules, which are going to be very important to the world. Okay, so my question, my hypothetical before we left, and I'm just wondering what your reaction is, what would happen? What would the Sea Bed Authority do if China decided it wanted, sort of the way it's handled the South China Sea, right?  Well, I don't know what the Sea Bed Authority would do, but we have in the Law of the Sea Convention an extensive set of chapters that talk about dispute resolution. And it has also set up a specialized tribunal called the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea. It also has within that context a specialized Sea Bed Disputes Tribunal. And that is where the situation would be brought, whether it be brought by the authority or by other countries that might find that this is problematic from their own point of view is an open point, an open question, but that is where it would be taken in the first instance to have the International Court that has been set up specifically to deal with these subjects to deal with. Is this connected with the International Court of Justice in the hand? I know it's a completely independent body. It's a different group of judges. The judges are based in Hamburg and they're elected for, I believe, anyway, some sort of term and they're elected by the members of the parties. I suppose they've found that China had willfully violated the rules of the Sea Bed Authority. What would they be able to do? A court of such can do nothing. It can simply state whether or not this is or is not consistent with the obligations under the Law of the Sea Convention. And how that is that these judgments are then enforced, again, because it is an international judgment by the countries in various ways. There are... Sanctions by... There are various responses. That might be, for example, one potential response. What generally tends to happen is a lot of in-the-corridor type discussion afterwards. First. So I wanted to, we have a few minutes left and I wanted to explore with you an advised term where this is going. Because it sounds to me, I'm just integrating from what you've said and what I read about your talk last week. This is of enormous value in American dollars. The amount of Sea Bed is much greater than the amount of land in this world. And the amount of these valuable materials is huge. And the value is huge. And we can find an economic, feasible way to mine them. Of course, without disturbing the environment. That is a source of a number of materials that we do not otherwise have, but which, going forward, we will probably need in our technology and manufacturing. So it seems to me with, what did you say, 180 or 90 countries involved. 167 plus the EU. Okay, 167. Which is 27 or 26, depending on where Britain is at this point in this context. Among those countries, probably among those countries, are the countries that are most interested in the proceeds of this mining. They would like to use these materials. They'd like to be involved in it. They would like to invest in it and so forth and develop the technology. So it strikes me that the stakes are huge. Maybe that's why so many people came down to see what you had to say last week. Maybe among them were some people who had stakes. So I'm thinking that ultimately there's going to be some tension and contention about who mines what and where and the seabed authority is going to be under a fair amount of pressure and its court will be under a fair amount of pressure and the amount of money, the amount of global effect, economic effect is going to be huge because we don't have these on land. And so how do you see this unfolding? How do you see it going forward? Give me, if you would, I know it's speculation and scientists never like speculation. Neither do lawyers. That's a double. Lawyers, scientists likes speculation even less. You've got a double no speculation person sitting here but finish your question and we'll see what we can do with it. Give me five or 10 years on this. Give me the development of technologies because there will be private companies, multinational companies that will put the money in, probably already ready to put the money in to do the exploration, to do the testing, to develop the technology to mine visibly. And so how is this going to unfold in the next five or 10 years? Are we going to see an Oklahoma land rush here? Oklahoma seabed rush, if you will. How are we going to see this unfolding? How will it affect us? How will it affect our economy? How will it affect our ability to manufacture? You have to distinguish between any mining that's going to go on in international waters and any mining that's going to go on within national jurisdiction, all right? I am not going to talk about the mining within national jurisdiction because that is the total responsibility of the state in whose jurisdiction it is. They don't need to answer to anyone. Even the seabed authority? Now there is a very interesting question there. Because of the way the law, the sea convention works and the way part 11, which sets out the rules for deep sea mining works, the environmental rules for deep sea mining within national jurisdiction can be no weaker than what the seabed authority has set up for mining in international jurisdiction. This is not generally known. I hope you put this in your notes because it's going to be on the final exam. I recommend to everyone's attention reading that law of the sea convention and if you want to focus your attention on deep sea mining, it's part 11. By the way, the seabed authority does not have its own court. This is the international tribunal for the law of the sea that has a seabed dispute chamber. The law of the sea tribunal addresses all oceans issues that arise under the convention. Okay, just want to make sure that everyone understands that. That's a good consolidation, I think. Well, it's very, very good because one of the points of the convention was to have peaceful resolution of disputes and it made an entire menu of peaceful resolution options available. And you have to integrate all these issues together. You can't look at silence. Yes, yes, yes. Yes, because all these boundaries that we like to put in the sea, the sea doesn't recognize them, completely irrelevant to them, right? To anything that lives in the oceans, which is another aspect of the convention, it's the only international instrument that actually does take a global view of the environment. However, your question was a little bit down the road. Well, in international waters, in fact, it's not gonna be such a huge gold mine as you might think because what was trying to be avoided was to have exactly that kind of gold rush, where again, only the highly technically sophisticated countries could go sit on a resource and take all the benefits. The benefits from that mining needs to be shared with the rest of the world. And there is a whole section again of this convention in part 11 that sets out how that is to be done. So first you have to pay, sort out the cost of the International Seabed Authority, which is supposed to be funded by this mining. Then you have to, and that's what they're working on now, by the way, decide how the benefits are going to be distributed, which involves negotiating a royalty regime with the countries that are out there mining. Whether they do it through a company or not is a different matter. But there are royalties of which a part has to go to the Seabed Authority, who then has to distribute it to the rest of the world. So all of a sudden, you can't just look at it as a company would its normal bottom line.  All of these elements make the economic situation and the commercial situation and the decision to go out there in mine far more complicated in international waters. But we really need to do that. Well, we don't necessarily need to go into international waters. A lot of these resources, like I said, are available inside in national waters as well, but not everybody has them. Yeah, yeah. Did that give you a little bit of a feel? Yes, it does. And in our IC happening, a need to strengthen the Seabed Authority, a need to strengthen the court on the law of the sea convention so that it can actually have some teeth on this sort of thing, that it can receive the funds, that the Seabed Authority can receive the funds, distribute the funds, and all the members will play ball in accordance with the commonly agreed rules. You know, it may be that there will, people who will break and run, who will jump ship. Well, that has happened in international laws since international law was first actually started by the Phoenicians. And there are many, many different ways that nation states have evolved to try to deal with that. Yeah. Okay, well, I want to see it happening in an orderly fashion. But we all want to see it happen in an orderly fashion. I want to add one other thing. You mentioned before that there were disturbances on the ocean bottom. If you don't properly remove the Ferro-Manganese modules for it, nodules for example. I just wanted to hear recently, I think it was in Brazil where the Chinese have gotten into infrastructure that mines iron ore. And Brazil is a huge source of iron ore. However, there have been, call it the effect of climate change. There have been floods, okay, in the areas where these mines have been built. And large communities have been inundated. There have been huge damage to the environment. Well, there's been a tragic incident just the other day, I think. Yeah, yeah.  Mining of the same materials on land is going to become more difficult because of climate change and who knows what else. And so it puts even greater focus on the prospect of mining at sea, don't you think? What is really encouraging about the prospect of mining at sea is because it's so new. It's a very, very emerging industry. There has not been any mining yet. Everyone is concerned to get it right because they can still do it. The technology has not yet been cast in stone. They do not want to have these environmental issues. They're really trying to get it right. And the Seabed Authority is trying to orchestrate the getting it right because they have to approve all the proposals that are coming to them for the technology and for the environmental solutions that are being involved. It's the first truly international conversation that we're having about a globally shared resource in a way that's actually trying to come up with enforceable solutions unlike what's going on with the climate change discussions. Thank you for that. So there's camera one. I warned you before that I might ask you to address our audience on this, but we hadn't decided exactly what subject I would ask you to address our audience. My subject is, if I'm a student, a student of ocean and earth science, for example, or a student of law, is this a good area for me to get into? Will this be, you know, rewarding academically, rewarding financially? And what should I do to get into a position near you on this subject? You mean me personally? You professionally. I think rewarding financially is probably not the first criterion you want to use in choosing a career. You can always make money, but what you want is something that also feeds the soul a bit, yes? So if you want something that is truly exciting because it's so interdisciplinary, go into any type of field that involves oceanography, all right? That's the first thing I want to say. I'm with the Department of Oceanography at SOAST. You have to use every possible discipline to be able to be a proper oceanographer. So if you're a student, start looking at that, and then you can start refining down where you might want to go. Right now, deep sea mining is flavor of the month, but I've been through two false dawns with deep sea mining, and there is absolutely no reason why there couldn't be a third. It's another good reason to stay in oceanography because it gives you other opportunities. The previous 25 years, I've not been involved in deep sea mining because there's not been any funding, but the law degree and the oceanography degree have made it possible to stay involved in marine matters. With regard to getting close to me professionally, oh, dear, I'm very busy. This cannot be an invitation to please try to get in touch with me because I do not like to leave frustrated people in my wake, and you will be very frustrated. But they can still learn these things, they can still get involved, they can still be part of this enormous process that I see unfolding. So as for you, Philomene Verlan, what I have to say to you professionally is the best is yet to come. This is always true if you're dealing with research. Totally, totally. Do I have one more minute? Sure. Really, what I want to say is if we never mine a nodule, ever we have learned so much about the deep sea in the last five years, since this became interesting again in the current dawn, that it's been worthwhile just for that, just for that. And if we never do anything else but that, that knowledge is good for all our generations. And could we please not stop funding deep sea research if money for mining dries up? Please. Yeah. Thank you, Philomene. Thank you so much for the opportunity. Thank you so much for coming back.  Thank you.


Thanks very much. That concludes our day and a half. I want to thank Leonardo, even though he has departed, but also Rosario and Adriana. Thank you very much for a very interesting panel. It's sort of a microcosm of what the last day and a half was, which is the importance of various systems and institutions, and there's many moving parts within governments and international institutions on the ability to address illicit flows. I'm listed here as providing the summation. I'm not going to be as detailed as Heather was yesterday, despite how excellent her summation was. What I would like to do is take just a couple of minutes and talk about the themes that I heard running through all the panels over the last day and a half of what is important in this area. The first we heard from Fuget and Gene this morning talking about norms and standards, international norms and standards, and how important they are. And we and the Financial Transparency Coalition and other NGOs have been working on this issue for five, six, eight, nine years now, which is the transparency component of international oversight, basically automatic exchange of tax information, beneficial ownership information, country by country reporting, essentially the BEPS process that's going on at the OECD now. The domestic corollary to that is the statutory and regulatory framework that's required. You have to have the laws in place. The rules of the road have to be there, or there's nothing to follow and nothing to enforce. GFI does work on this now, working with governments, asking very basic questions such as, do you have a law against trade misinvoicing? Something extremely simple, but it's worth asking. If the answer is no, well, then there's a problem. So that's the first. Second is the issue of capacity in government institutions. Do they have the funding they need? Do they have the expertise they need? Do they have the technology they need? The institutions and the systems of government, and are they working correctly? Leonardo said here and Rosario said out front that the fundamentals in Brazil are strong. Brazil doesn't lack resources or financial regulation. It's another problem that Brazil suffers from, or there are many perhaps, but that's not one of them. Which brings me to my third point, which is political will, or the other way to talk about political will is corruption. We heard in the India panel today that if you're president of India, your by definition must have had to have played fast and lose with the rules to get to that point. So despite the rhetoric within the campaign against black money, there are some questions about the political will of that government to actually address it. You can be strong in one or perhaps two, but if you're not strong as a government of all three of these, if you don't have the rule of law in place, if you don't have the capacity in the government institutions, if you don't have the political will to address corruption, you're going to have an illicit flows problem, which brings us to the overview of this, which is the ability of countries to develop, eliminate poverty, and reduce the inequality in a particular country. Professor Nordin said earlier today that if you have, country has a limited fiscal space, they have an inability to build their democracy, and I think by, he didn't say this, but I think by definition, by connection, you have a lesser ability to address inequality. I think all those reasons come together on sort of what we've been talking about over the last day and a half, and I think gives us a roadmap for where we and other organizations need to go in the future. With that, I want to thank you all for staying to the end, joining us over the last day and a half. I want to thank the Ford Foundation once again, thank the GFI staff for their hard work of putting this all together, and thank you to all our panelists and moderators over the last day. Really appreciate all your efforts. Thank you very much.


Good Saturday morning everyone. I'm Mark Thornton and this is minor issue number nine It's gonna be an intelligence report on the status of the business cycle and what I'm gonna look at is the company Intel to represent our source of intelligence our Sample because Intel the computer chip making specialist is kind of a bellwether of sorts for the stock market. It's a high technology company it's a leveraged company and So it tends to swing wider in both directions and swing farther in both directions Now if we remember hearing about Intel recently reaching all-time high stock prices We'll also remember that they've been expanding their production capabilities significantly and they were a big part of President Biden and the Congress's Chips and Science Act which proposed to stimulate the computer chip industry and our supply chains and fighting China and All the rest it basically boils down to a taxpayer and consumer giveaway but that's not the point of Today's minor issue now we find this week that Intel is losing money It's lost money the last two quarters, which it hasn't done in a long time And it is in the process of cutting Expenses and cutting cost and now cutting the dividend significantly in a rather large Retrenchment from the days when it was building computer chip plants in Arizona and Ohio and of course all the other chip companies We're doing so as well So if we look back We'll see the all-time high stock price of Intel at $75 at the top of the technology bubble in the year Fast-forward several years to the bottom of the housing bubble and Intel was selling for $14 a share as recently as 2020 Intel shares were fetching over $60 a share and today It's selling for around $26 a share down 60% in a little over two years time So it's down Significantly and as we look forward in terms of the demand for their product Is it going to go up in the near term doesn't seem likely it seems more likely that demand overall will go down and supply in their industry in terms of the overall capacity is Certainly headed higher because it's not just Intel building new plants. It's other chip plants as Well, and if you put those two into your equation of supply and demand with demand probably going down supply probably going up you can only think in terms of softening of the price of computer chips, which is going to hit Intel even more so in overall terms Intel is a very good barometer or bellwether of the market and It's gone through it a tremendous expansion of output potential new factories and so forth Now it's starting to lose money and to take action and we're somewhere caught in the middle between It's really really high price of over $60 in 2020 down to 26 today Where is it going into the future? That's up to you and your guesses, but for me and my purpose I think it tells us a lot about where we've been and how we've got here Through monetary policy at the Fed keeping interest rates ridiculously low for an extended period of time but also the chips act and the government spending unbelievable amounts of money beyond Taxes and increasing the debt running up huge deficits In my recent book the skyscraper curse. I have a full hypothetical example of a computer chip factory during a business cycle At the end of chapter three I'm Mark Thornton at the Mises Institute


In last class, I have discussed about the cantilever sheet pile. Now, in this class I will discuss about the anchor sheet pile. Now, the idea of this use of this anchor in a sheet pile is that as I have already discussed that the main difference between the normal retaining wall and the sheet pile is that in the retaining wall, the depth of foundation is less compared to the sheet pile, where the sheet pile most of the resistance is coming from this foundation depth. So, the required depth is very high as compared to the retaining wall, but sometimes to reduce this required depth is anchor is used. So, this type of sheet pile is called the anchor sheet pile. So, now first if I go for this anchor sheet pile condition, so similar to that this is the top ground surface, this one is the dredge level and this is the cantilever sheet pile. Now, here sometimes to reduce this required depth one anchor is used here. So, this is this that means this here apply tension is applied with the this is the sheet pile, where this tension is applied to this anchor, then it is anchored in the ground. So, now here this type of sheet pile that is called anchor sheet pile. Now, here this is basically the anchor, this is this one is anchored within the soil. Now, that means additional tension or force is applied. Now, here when we do the analysis that means ultimately here also similar to the cantilever sheet pile, we have to determine the required depth of this sheet pile below the dredge level, this is the dredge level. Now, here two methods that is applied, one is our free earth support method, this is the these are the analysis methods, one is free earth support method, another is fixed earth support method. So, two type of analysis that we can do, one is free earth support method and it is fixed earth support method, free earth support method, here we assume that surface this end is free. So, now if I consider the first free earth support method, then the deformation shape of this sheet pile is considered like this. So, that means it will deform in this form and then this will be the shape. Now, if I consider two different types of soil, one is your first will go for the granular soil and next we will do for this for the clay soil or cohesive soil. So, we will do this analysis for this free earth support method in granular soil and we will do the analysis in the cohesive soil also. Now, first that we will do this analysis for the free earth support method. So, first we will do for this is for the granular soil. So, if I consider one anchor sheet pile in the granular soil, so this is dredge level, this is the sheet pile, this is the top ground surface, this is dredge level, where this sheet pile, this applied force is applied here, that is the F force which is applied due to this anchor and this is the required depth of the foundation below the dredge level. Now, the water table condition, suppose this is the position of the water table, this is the ground water table, position of the ground water table. Now, the load distribution diagram that we can do that this would be the expected diagram of the, see this is the earth pressures diagram corresponding to the active passive combination. So, here F is applied here, then feed this force will act in this direction and this will act in this direction opposite direction. So, this is the earth pressure diagram of the sheet pile, so this is sheet pile. Now, these are the different position if this is A, this is base is the B, then this is dredge level, this is E we can consider. So, first these are different components here, we consider this one, this dredge means where earth pressure is 0 is at a distance of A from the dredge level. Now, this earth pressure at this level is P, A is the active earth pressure at E level. So, P A E is the active earth pressure at point E or at level E, E is this point. Now, now distance of this remaining part if I consider capital Y, so we can write that d is equal to A plus capital Y. So, the forces so that means here what are the forces we can consider this as the two parts, one is this portion is this is active zone and this is the passive pressure. Now, if I take this two different four that means what are the forces that is acting, one is F due to this anchor force and another is the P active and another force is P active. So, the force which is active that P passive, so the forces those are acting here. So, first one is F is the force due to the anchor anchor and then P A is the force or you can say active earth pressure, force due to active earth pressure and P P is the force due to this passive earth pressure. Actually this is the net pressure we can say. So, now these three forces that will act in this passive earth pressure. So, these three forces that will act in this total, these three forces means if I consider this is O, so one region is A E O this region that is P act A, another is O B in this region this is P P. So, now if I write this is this this anchor rod of force due to the anchor and now we can write that this F plus P P minus P A that is equal to 0. So, this among these three forces F plus P P minus P A equal to 0. Now as I have discussed already in previous class in during this cantilever sheet pile we can determine this A value with this expression that is P A E divided by P A E divided by gamma at this level below the dredge level if I consider gamma dash into K P minus K A, where P A E this is the pressure at this E level gamma dash weight of the soil below dredge level and K P is the passive earth pressure coefficient and K P is the passive earth pressure coefficient and P A is active earth pressure coefficient. So, these are the things. So, in this expression by the help of this expression we can determine the forces this distance A. So, this is our expression and this is our general force equilibrium expression. Now if in this other if I draw the same figure here. So, this is sheet pile it is a top level it is the dredge level now this is the ground water table position. So, forces that is acting this is the F anchor force this force is P active and this is P passive this distance is T or depth. So, this is the A E O and B and this point this is the P active at E level this distance is A remaining one capital Y. Now in this if I take the moment at anchor rod level or anchor level that is equal to 0. So, now this force P A say is acting at a distance of Y 1 bar from this rod level P A and P P is acting at a distance of Y 2 bar from the rod level. So, Y 1 is from the rod level this is P A and P P is acting Y 2 bar from this rod level. Now we can say that our P A into Y 1 bar that is equal to P P into Y 2 bar. So, this is the expression if I take the moment at the rod level. Now how will calculate this P A or P P? Now P P we can calculate because this P P value this value is given by this expression that gamma dash into K P minus K A into capital Y because this things already discussed in doing the cantilever retaining wall calculation. So, this one this is the net force or net pressure is K P minus K A into gamma dash into capital Y as this is the distance capital Y. So, P P will be half into gamma dash K P minus K A into capital Y into. So, this is capital Y into capital Y. So, this will be half into gamma dash K P minus K A into capital Y square and Y 2 bar will be Y 2 bar that will be that if total height is h say and the distance from the dredge level to the rod level is small h total height of the seat pile above dredge level is say capital Y 2 bar will be small h plus A plus 2 third of capital Y. So, this is Y 2 bar. Similarly we have to calculate the Y 1 bar by taking different components this small triangle then this rectangle then that again this triangle and then the remaining triangle. So, this how to calculate the Y 1 bar by taking different components this small triangle then this rectangle then that again this triangle and then the remaining triangle. So, this how to calculate this Y 1 bar that has been already explained in example in the last class. So, that thing has already been explained. So, in this way you have to determine the Y 1 bar and the P P also.  So, further if I simplify this thing.  So, in this expression this final expression if I look if we look this to this final expression then what are the unknowns here. The gamma dash is known the soil property K P K is also known then this A is known A we can calculate the expression which is shown h is h has to be known because we should know the position of this rod level from the dredge level. In P A we can calculate Y 1 bar also we can calculate. So, only unknown is Y this capital Y. So, first we have to determine the capital Y from this final expression capital Y once we get the capital Y next step we will get the d that is capital Y plus A and once we get this d this is increased by 20 percent to 40 percent by providing this factor of safety. So, once we get this d value or capital Y value then what we can do we can this P A we can calculate because this P A is the top portion where A we know we can determine P A we can calculate and if I know Y capital Y value then we can also calculate the P P. So, once we know the P A and P P then we can calculate this F force anchored force that is P A minus P P because that force is required. So, we have to design this anchor such that it can sustain under this F load. So, in and so this way we can determine how much depth required depth we can provide for this anchor sheet pile and what is the required anchor force. So, this analysis is valid for granular soil the similar one we can do for the cohesive soil also. So, next one is for the cohesive soil how to do this analysis for the cohesive soil. So, again this this next one is for the cohesive soil then. So, we will do this analysis for the cohesive soil. So, we will consider same sheet pile, but the soil is different this is the top portion this is the dredge level. So, required depth is D. So, here the same this is the position of the water table this is the anchor force that applying F. Now, here the difference is that here we consider in the previous one granular soil we consider that our foundation soil and the field soil because this is a field soil and this is the foundation both are granular soil. Here we consider that this is the field soil is granular soil where we consider C u is 0 and the soil below the dredge level of foundation soil that is cohesive soil that is phi u is 0. So, or you can consider the both in C phi soil also they are the pressure distribution diagram will be different. So, now here we can consider similar diagram for the, but here for the granular soil we will get this type of distribution instead of this triangular one. So, how we calculate this forces? So, this is also again this one p active at e level. So, this is a this is b this is e and here the forces that is acting again this F then this p active and again this p passive. So, again this F anchor force active force active force and passive force. So, these are the forces that will act again say distance between this anchor force from this rod level to this active force this y 1 bar and this is for the passive force this is y 2 bar this is y 1 bar this is y 2 bar. So, now when we try to calculate the what are the forces at different level then we can get this value this way that for this passive pressure.  So, this is the common expression to calculate the passive pressure at any point similarly this is p active that is q bar k p minus 2 c u root k p where k p is the passive pressure coefficient and for that c u is the cohesion undrained cohesion. Now for phi u equal to 0 this k p equal to k a sorry here this one is k a active. So, this is the k p is the passive earth pressure coefficient and k a is the active earth pressure coefficient this is not the k p this is k a. So, k p minus k a that is equal to 1. So, at the dredge level now this q value we can calculate the q is the effective over burden pressure. So, q bar is effective burden pressure. Now, if I want to calculate what is the active earth pressure and passive earth pressure at this point e at dredge level. So, there is a two part one is the left part another is the right part. So, now if I consider that at dredge level the right point the right side of point e the q bar value is if this is h again h is the height of the sheet pile from the dredge level. Then that will be gamma into h this is effective this gamma into h or as this water table is here then we can calculate in other form also that is if this height is this is h 1 capital h 1 if it is capital h 2 then we can consider this density is if it is gamma and this is gamma dash then this will be gamma into h 1 plus gamma sub or gamma dash into h 2. So, this is the unit weight this is the submerged unit weight of the soil and this is the unit weight of the soil its natural condition. So, in this way we can determine, but it is gamma dash h for this calculation we are considering. So, now we can put that p a e this p active at e level that gamma dash is equal to q is equal to gamma dash into h as for this dredge level below this dredge this portion this phi u equal to 0 we are considering that phi u equal to 0 for this portion. So, at this level the stress that we are taking that phi u and if I consider this phi u equal to 0. So, k p will be 0 for this level. So, now we can write that k a is equal to 1 as e phi u equal to 0 then k p equal to k a equal to 1. So, this is gamma dash into h minus 2 c u similarly at the left hand side at the left hand side of point e q bar is 0 because here no surcharge is there. So, q bar is equal to 0. So, we can write that p p e because here the passive earth pressure p p e that is equal to 0 plus 2 c u. So, that is equal to 2 c u. So, at this point dredge level the right side active pressure is gamma dash h minus 2 u 2 c u and the passive pressure is 2 c u. So, net pressure we can write that net pressure that is equal to p p e minus p a e. So, that is equal to 4 c u minus gamma dash h. So, p p e at e and p a e. So, 4 c u gamma dash h. So, the net pressure that we are getting at this level that is 4 c u. So, this is the net pressure. So, that is 4 c u minus gamma dash h that is the net pressure. So, now if I draw this same figure. So, you can draw this is the sheet pile this is dredge level. So, this is water table position is here this is anchor force f. So, this is here net pressure we have calculated this one is 4 c u minus gamma dash h and this is the p a e that is e position this is a this is base b and this is the rod level. So, forces which is acting that is p active and this is p passive. So, this this is p passive distance from the rod level to p active is y 1 bar and this distance from the rod level this is p y 2 bar to this point. This is d is the required depth of the sheet pile h is the height of the sheet pile capital H. Now, again if I want to find the p p first because p a again we can calculate p a and how to calculate this y 1 bar that is also been explained. So, that part is fine, but we have to calculate this p p that p p is here 4 c u minus gamma dash h into d where d is the depth of the sheet pile d is equal to required depth of the sheet pile. So, now we can write this is this is expression say 1 and then summation r of the moment which is taken at the anchor level that is equal to 0. So, if I take the summation of this anchor level that is p a into y 1 bar that is equal to p p into y 2 bar. So, we can finally or we can write p a y 1 bar that is equal to p p is 4 c u minus gamma dash h into d and the lever arm is if this is the small h from rod level to d rage level the small h plus d by 2 because it will act at the center this is rectangle. So, this is d by 2. So, finally we can get this type of expression d square plus 2 d h minus 2 p a y 1 bar divided by 4 c u minus gamma dash h that is equal to 0. So, the final expression is this one where which are the unknown unknown p a we can calculate which is total force due to this active pressure y 1 bar also we can calculate c u and gamma as a soil property h is known. So, only unknown is d. So, what you have to do then you have to determine the d from this final expression then increase it by 20 to 40 percent due to the factor of safety. Then once you get this d we can calculate the p p then the finally f will be determined by p a minus p p like the previous case. So, these 2 are the different 2 cases where previous one is a granular soil and it is cohesive soil as it is in the cohesive soil then this phi u is 0. So, k a is equal to k p is equal to 1 that we are using. So, in this way we can analyze this anchor sheet pile for the granular soil and the cohesive soil, but here we have taken the free earth surface support method where the next one that I will discuss where this is analyzed we consider the fixed earth support method. So, for next we will discuss the fixed earth support method in that method that the next one is support method. So, that means here we consider this is our fit pile this is dredge level this is the top surface. So, that is the dredge level here this is the anchor this is the force anchor force and this is a this is e this is base b this is the rod level d. Here if I go for this deformation pattern then this will be the deformation pattern for the sheet pile. Here that means the difference is here one point of contour fracture will appear. So, here this point is say this is the point of point of contour fracture that means here the bending moment if I can draw the bending moment diagram that bending moment is changing its sign or here these two will go from positive to negative or vice versa. So, that means here bending moment diagram if I draw the bending moment diagram this type of case. So, this is the total sheet pile we can consider. So, these are the same points. So, this is suppose this is i point of contour fracture and then we can draw this type of bending moment diagram say here at a this is at d this is at e the next one is i point this point say i point and this is b point. So, we can get this we may get this type of diagram where. So, here this bending moment is changing its sign at this point of contour fracture and then we will get this type of diagram of the sheet pile. So, this is our fixed earth support method or this is the different position or we can say. So, this is i and this is the diagram of different points. So, we can say in here also we get different points where we will get say this another point g. So, there also we will get this g point and then we can get this type of diagram also. So, that is our the same this is the friction force that we are getting in opposite direction if I draw this diagram. So, this is our anchor position and this is the dredge level at the i this is the point of contour fracture then we will get at g level this value and also we will get some this type of pattern also. So, that means you will get this type of bending moment diagram for this for the soil for this fixed end anchor pile. So, now so this is the our b m d and this is also deflection pattern deflection pattern. So, now we will discuss how to analyze this system because here this is if this is the different type of this is the point of contour fracture where these forces are changing this is the g is another point. So, now if I get so this will be the g value is somewhere here and then you can get this type of diagram also. Now, if I go for the pressure distribution diagram for this type of sheet pile then we will get. So, suppose this is the sheet pile this is dredge level now the pressure distribution diagram we are considering this again this is a this is the anchor point d this is e and this is b then one position is i this is point of contrafection then below that this is say g. So, now if I get this diagram you will get the granular soil. So, this is the diagram where at the g suppose this is the maximum then you will get another change then you will get this type of diagram in the analysis. So, here this i is somewhere here say this is i point this is the where this is maximum this is g point. So, this is g point i is somewhere here. So, this is the diagram suppose this is h is the height of the sheet pile now here somewhere f is acting which is the force of the anchor force and then this is the required depth below the dredge level. So, we will get this type of distribution of the pressure distribution in this case. So, here also this is say a this distance is i say now from this total system we are considering only this up to g portion and if I draw this diagram for the g portion only up to g then you will get. So, this is the g value g point this is say i point this is the e point this is the d point this is the a point this is the i point. So, you will get this type of diagram. So, this is i point is here somewhere. So, and as we are taking this portion then you will get another reaction that will act is r g and this is the force will act at f. So, then what are the other forces then similar to this is the p active for this region that means this is a d e i in this region this is the total force a active and then the net forces then this force in the opposite direction this force p passive or p 2 that will act. Now, here suppose at i 0 point this force is p 0. So, these are the and this pressure is p a e the pressure at e level this is the pressure p 0 is the pressure at i level. So, once we get this force then you will get basically two if I consider two different beams of this total portion then this again if I take this if I consider the draw the same figure here up to a to g then this is the d d level e this is the d level where force will act f. So, this is g level this is i level. So, here this force is p 0 at e level p a e and g level one reaction r g will act. Now, for this one if I draw the bending moment diagram this is the pressure distribution then if I draw the bending moment diagram of this total portion. So, this is the at d level then it will follow at i point point of contrafecture it is 0 then it will go at g point is maximum. So, this is a point this is i point this is e point this is d point and this is g point. So, this is the bending moment diagram because this is this bending moment diagram is a similar diagram that I have previously drawn that means this is the forces then i at i it is 0 then g we are taking up to g portion. So, this is the point here also we are taking up to g portion. So, that means if I consider only up to g portion this will be the bending moment this stage in the just in the mirror image you can go opposite side. So, this is in the g portion. So, we will get this is the bending moment diagram. Now, we consider this total portion is taken to divide into two parts and two different beams. So, we can consider one beam is from a to i another beam is from i to g. So, we consider these two beams one beams is from a to i. So, this is our beam number one and this is our beam number two because this sheet pile you are considering this is two beam this is one is a to i another is i to g. Now, what are the forces in the first beam? So, that force in the first beam. So, that force f at d level that force will act this anchor force then this reaction r 1 that will act at the i level in the beam two opposite reaction r i r 1 will act at beam level and this reaction r g that will also act at g level. So, these are the forces then additional to that in beam one and beam two the force will also act due to this earth pressure.  Now, due to the if I consider the forces this is the forces and then this beam two then in addition to or other force that will act if I consider earth pressure also because of this additional earth pressure some forces will act. So, what are the these forces that will draw here? So, that means the forces that we are talking about. So, first we will draw the earth pressure diagram of this a to g portion. So, the forces this is the dredge level e. So, we will take this is the fourth earth pressure diagram here. So, then it is your maximum then it will follow this path. So, this is the diagram we have drawn. So, this point is say i where moment is 0 and this is g point and this is d point where this f is acting. So, now we have taken two beams one is from a to i a to i another is from i to g. So, now what are the forces that is acting here? So, from the a to i. So, the first force from this beam one one is acting f anchor another force is acting r 1 reaction the similar opposite reaction is acting here r 1 and here r g acting. So, now the forces that is acting for this for a to i beam. So, this force from this acting. So, this will act as p 1. So, p 1 is the forces due to this areas pressure similarly this beam. So, one pressure will act here because of this small triangular pressure this is in the second beam. So, this is a beam one this is beam two and so that means p 2 will act here and this side for the this triangular opposite direction one pressure p 3 will act. So, if I take separately this beam one what are the pressure? So, this is the beam one the pressure is acting this is beam one. So, one pressure is acting f at a d level then this reaction r 1 that will act and this force p 1 that will act force for this earth pressure. Now, for the beam two. So, this is a to i now for the beam two what are the forces that will act this is i 2 g this is beam two. So, this reaction r 1 also will act here one reaction r g is also act because this as the reaction because we are taking the some segment not the total beam. So, this is some segment. So, this is r 1 is this r 1 because this is beam one beam two then additional force this p 2 will act this p 2 is due to the small triangular force which is acting this side this is also acting this side and this is also acting on the opposite side. So, another force p 3 that will act here. So, these are the forces that will act now we have to calculate all these reactions all these forces then we can determine how determine this T value. Now, these are the forces diagram for this in the force this diagram on the different beams what are the forces acting what are the reaction forces what are the external forces acting here. Now, with the help of these forces we have to determine the required depth of the sheet pile and anchor force. So, how to determine this depth of the sheet pile and the anchor force that I will discuss in the next class. Thank you.


Hello, I'm Professor Stephen Nashaba, and I'm here to help you out with constructing an atmosphere-free model. So I've already set up an Excel sheet here with these categories. This is the solar constant, which you can just enter by typing in the letters. Here I'm going to enter numbers, and I know that 1367 is the watts per meter squared for the solar constant. For Earth, the albedo is 0.3 sigma. I'm going to enter in scientific notation as 5.67 times 10 to the minus 8. That's 5678, and it's a lot easier to do that in scientific notation. So the temperature I'm just going to start with 100 degrees, because even though I know that's not the right answer, we're going to have Excel figure out the right answer. And let's see, oh, well here now is going to be our first instance of entering an expression, which starts with an equal sign, and what I'm going to do is I'm going to say that equals that number here, but instead of typing in 1367 again, I'm going to just click on that box, which is B2, and I want to divide it by 4, so that's what I'm doing there. And now I1 prime and I2 prime, these are the, these are the shortwave and longwave contributions to the radiative balance of a planet, and so I'm going to also put these as expressions, and that's what you should do too, so I'm going to say that's equal to, now I know that it's S0 over 4 times, and now you have to use the regular order of operations 1 minus the albedo, and so that's that one there, and then what else do we want? Oh, I want for the outgoing longwave radiance, I'm also going to put in an expression, and I know that that's sigma times, so there's sigma times, and I'm going to say enter the temperature field there, raise to the fourth. Okay, and so I've got that. Now what about the radiative difference? Well it's another expression, I'm going to say it's equal to I1 minus I2, and as you can see we're not in radiative balance I1 because this is positive I1 is a lot bigger than I2, but that's because our temperature is so low. So the last thing that we're going to do here is I'm going to have Excel figure out the proper value of the temperature, and in order to do that I have to do this thing called goal seek, and that comes on this what-if analysis under the data tab, and here's how it goes under what-if analysis. I'm going to select goal seek, and the whole deal is I want to set cell B9, that's this one right here, to a value of zero, by changing the temperature, which I can see is in cell B5, and that all looks good, so I'm going to say okay, and what it's done is it said okay, I have found that at a temperature of 254.8, the difference, the radiative imbalance, the difference between I1 prime and I2 prime is a very small number, as you can see from here. So we say well look at this, that's just great, we found a temperature of 254.8, so that would be the predicted temperature of our planet using the sphere free model.


By definition, a human rights defender is a person who individually or in association with others acts peacefully to promote or strives for the realisation and protection of human rights. Human rights defenders have many faces. Some can be environmentalists, scientists or healthcare workers. Others can be lawyers, journalists, politicians or artists. They can also be religious leaders, whistleblowers, women, LGBT activists or students. Human rights defenders are identified by what they do rather than by their profession. Their work can be extremely challenging and risky. Every day, everywhere, some human rights defenders are standing up and speaking up against human rights violations, injustice and discrimination. Human rights defenders also remind states of their responsibility and hold states accountable. It is becoming increasingly difficult for human rights defenders to work online and offline. Because of their work, they face threats, harassment, violent attacks, restrictions and reprisals. Often, they are silenced. Human rights defenders need protection. Making sure human rights defenders are protected everywhere, every time, is one of the main roles we play at the UN Human Rights Office. We advocate for safe and open space for their freedoms and rights to participate. States are duty bound to ensure that human rights defenders can carry out their work unrestricted. States have the obligation to protect civic space and allow all voices to be heard. Protect one voice to hear many. Protect the voices of human rights defenders.


Every year thousands of police officers are killed in the line of duty while serving their fellow citizens and the cause of justice. As Interpol our role is to act as a unifying force across borders and cultures. This is why Interpol made the 7th of March the International Day of Remembrance for fallen officers. Let us pause and reflect on the sacrifices made by police officers around the world. Let us recognize the bravery of those who left our ranks and their families. Let us be inspired by them in our daily actions. Let us never forget.