Okay, hope you are doing well. It is Sunday the 6th of February So the usual look ahead for the week there's wrap up some of the major weekend news from hawkish comments out of a governing council of the ECB we've got talk of Amazon Nike evaluating a bid for Peloton which we can look at in a bit more detail and then a look Ahead for the week with mostly attention going to be on the US CPI numbers, which are going to come out on Thursday Don't forget as you can see here This is our daily market maker newsletter written by myself every weekday plus a weekend edition on Saturday wrapping up all things that matter in Market so feel free to subscribe to that I'll drop a link in the comment section of this video But let's just get straight into things to talk about ECB's not now one of the first things You might ask yourself particularly if you're you're a student or even a non-professional trader you might think who who is not and who is Klaus not at best and Really, this is a crib sheet here I've tweeted it out as well if you want to have a look at it my handles just there But these are all the members of the governing council and really they're quite important that you get to know and get familiar with all of these Names and more importantly where they sit on that dove hawk spectrum Dovish being at the top hawkish at the bottom and as you can see here Klaus not is the outright most hawkish member. He's the head of the Dutch central bank So what did he say? Well, he said that the weekend he expects an interest rate increase as early as the fourth quarter of this year And if that were to take place then the second hike could happen in the spring of 2023 So pretty hawkish comments, but I would say context is super key So point one is not making that type of rhetoric is not that unsurprising Giving his disposition on the more hawkish side of the spectrum to if you actually look at what inflation is like Not overall in the eurozone. It's already a record, but if you look at it in Netherlands, it's even higher It's at 7.6% in January So they're definitely feeling the pressure to take some sort of action in the more near term And then to it comes in the context of the ECB meeting as well Although Christine the guard didn't really push back too much on some of the market more aggressive pricing that's happened given the More ahead moves that we're seeing from the Bank of England and the Fed at this point in time We did also have those source comments as well shortly after the ECB meeting last week that we're talking about potential Of a rate hike in 2022 So none of it really in my mind is too surprising and of all the members to come out and say this This is probably the least surprising. So although this is a headline being run as a headline kind of scoop by some of the major Financial news wires. I don't actually think it's a particularly big deal to be quite honest Other things are there are a big deal because Peloton shares did spike over 45% in Extended market trade on Friday and it came after reports that Amazon and Nike are said to be Evaluating a bid for the firm as we know Peloton was one of those kind of pure play pandemic Winners at the initial time But they've come crashing back to to reality And they've had a number of issues supply-train constraints on Really impacting their distribution of their products as well as just generally the the lockdowns Loosening so restrictions going away people getting back to the kind of business of just living living their normal lives and particularly that in the fitness space as well Their shares have been down over 80% since their initial highs But they did blip as I said over 40% on Friday The question mark comes then how likely is a deal and these particular names that are being put forward is not just the Amazons and the nikes. There's also been Disney mentioned Apple's also been mentioned as well I wrote a piece about this on my LinkedIn account over the weekend because I thought it was quite interesting And I'd say the probably the most likely suitor for a Peloton and Peloton do have their earnings out this week as well Which would be quite interesting is Amazon and if you think about really what Amazon is although It's becoming this kind of juggernaut in AWS in the cloud space It is a logistics giant and that in particular those supply chain headaches have been massive Factor that's weighed on Peloton Amazon is also keen to develop its fitness and well-being capabilities to bulk up its halo band that it launched really at the beginning of the pandemic in 2020 and we saw last week as well Amazon and their earnings they raised their US Prime membership by 17% and Although they don't raise prices that often obviously there's going to be certain customers Particularly when we're facing you know the cost of living is getting more expensive globally at the moment under the guise of in rising inflation And energy prices and bills and so forth Then what could they do to try and keep those customers satisfied to stay with their subscription? Well, you know bundle the Peloton existing subscription package into prime could be a pretty easy win in that respect so Yeah, it's Probably Amazon I would say is the favorite here The reason why I say that as well as Nike has already come out with their kind of strategic goals of what their plans are and it's much More in the software space rather than hardware in itself and with Apple I do see it hard to see them taking on these kind of physical units of not by their own design Which is not really akin to what their history has kind of shown in that respect So yeah out of all of them. I'd say Amazon is probably the best Suited and I do think for sure that Peloton is running on on fumes at the moment and it's only a matter of Timing with this sort of thing Alright, so let's have a look at the week ahead and what have we got on the agenda? First things first. Don't forget that China is back from its week-long holiday Otherwise on Monday we get straight into it in Europe where we have German industrial production For December to kick off the week economists anticipate a rebound from the previous month that probably Won't be enough though to have prevented a contraction in the fourth quarter Germany being one of those european nations that's really Going to have the impact of restrictions given some of the outbreaks that we've had of omicron ECB president Christine Lagarde is also speaking on Monday. She's talking to the european parliament committee Normally that's normally just an update particularly because it comes just a couple of days on Thursday last week When we had the ECB meeting of just relaying really that communication to Two parliamentarians essentially so very rarely do we only see anything new there, but again She's the president. So she is speaking Monday worth being aware of that Really the highlight of the week Just jumping to Thursday. No doubt will be uscpi and the reason for that is it's expected to have jumped To hear the red bar, which would be 7.3% in the month of january That would be another increase from 7% and as you can see here this steady uptick that we've had Over the last four really consecutive readings going from where we were in the mid fives quite constant during really the summer of last year and this pickup that we've had so If that was to materialize and we get a 7.3% year-on-year cpi headline reading then from the u.s That would be the largest annual advance since early 1982 The x food and energy categories that's expected to have risen by 5.9 percent But analysts at barkleys I was reading one of their notes They did say that cost of clothes new and used cars and alcoholic beverages all part of the core cpi goods categories Should have climbed less quickly than in december So is there some idea here that we're coming towards a slight deceleration of the acceleration if that makes sense Towards peaking in that respect Nonetheless the inflation data of course follows the The government's latest employment report we had in payrolls on friday If you missed that and you wanted to see the live reaction and analysis It's on the youtube channel. Just go back and search for it and our uploaded videos But that obviously came in much higher than expected uptick in average hourly earnings as well And so this is just putting more and more emphasis on the idea that the fed are going to accelerate And really commit towards the higher end of the rate hikes for the rest of this year having not discounted, of course seven Remaining meetings that there is to run for 2022 And other than that on the calendar, it's pretty quiet in terms of feds speak the only two at the moment are cleave and feds Loretta Mester and michelle bowman both scheduled to speak on wednesday So the other things that I will be keeping an eye on if we go back to the calendar here Is andrew bailey the bank of mingland governor He's going to be speaking on thursday and of course this comes after last week We had confirmation of the bank of mingland executing their second back-to-back interest rate rise since 2004 More interestingly, I thought was the fact that there was a five-four split all to take action to hike But four of them so only just why one vote outvoted World wanted to hike instead of 25 50 basis points So I think the market's going to be looking for bailey to steer a little bit of clarity behind perhaps that that discussion point bailey himself actually voted for 25 so was not in that more hawkish group So definitely want to to get some color on that and also perhaps clarification On comments urging pay restraint that the governor has made that drew a rebuke from the prime minister boris johnson's office and obviously What central bankers are mindful of is you start to get into this Two-horse race between higher inflation short term So people have to put up wages, but wages people gain paid more increases inflation And so the central banks off the mindset of look inflation is going to be temporary kind of And so there's no point hiking rages because very hard to go backward in that regard And you don't want to fuel inflation further But for politicians, of course They want to pay they want to say at least that they want wages to go up because that's playing into the hands of the consumer So there's the economic argument and the political side of things. So I don't think bailey's going to really flip on his comments But nonetheless something that we could We could be watching for and could be quite interesting and then on friday from the uk sticking there We get gdp data. It's going to show how the uk weathered the first full month of the coronavirus omicron variant The new growth figures for december I expected to see a contraction of 0.5 That sounds quite quite bad But I think you've got to put it in context of the fact that this is going through the omicron Situation the bank convener has already said they see the level of gdp in the first quarter as similar to the fourth quarter Because of the likely contractions that we're probably going to see in a technical recession in the uk for december and january But growth then expected to return fairly decent rate in february and march and then final things i'm looking out for are There is earning season still going on It starts to to soften a little bit in the pace and also most of the major Kind of bellweathers or index weighted companies are kind of done now a couple of names I am looking at though of interest Pfizer pre-market tuesday peloton aftermarket tuesday and we got disney aftermarket wednesday twitter coke pepsey pre-market thursday A couple of names that that stand out for me And that's it so Any questions at all feel free to drop me a comment on the video below absolutely happy to help as always as I said feel free to subscribe to our Our relatively new newsletter, but happy to say we've got a good 60 000 people now on the list So absolutely happy to be putting out some content every day And yeah, have a great week and I'll speak to you on the next video. All right. Take care