The following is a presentation of TFNN. Trade what you see with Larry Pezzavento. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER>. Now Larry Pezzavento. Okay, looking good, Billy Ray feeling good, Louis. We're going to take a look at a few things starting out with Bitcoin. But before we do that, I want to tell a little story that I got from Martin Armstrong over the weekend. It was very interesting story. The, uh, there was two people getting on an airplane, getting ready to go to New York. And one was an atheist and in other rooms, a little girl, eight years old, and she was sitting there reading her Bible. And the atheist looked at her and looked sort of smirk smirked. And he said, you know, young lady, sometimes when we fly on these planes, we like to talk to our fellow passengers to make the time go faster. And the little girl puts down her Bible and she says, yes, she says that would be fun. He said, what would you like to talk about? He says, well, why don't we talk about the fact that there is no God and there is no life after death and there is no heaven in hell? How would that be? And the little girl says, you know, that's interesting. Can you answer me this question first? He said, sure, what is it? She says, if deers, cows and horses all eat the same thing, grass.  And the atheist thought for a minute, he says, well, he said, I can't really say. And she says, you're trying to tell me we're going to have an interesting conversation when you don't even know what poop is. Well, boys and girls, that's pretty much what's going on in the markets these days. Let me give you a perfect example. Wasn't it nice of the people from the Russian military to tell everybody that the nuclear option had been implicated and they were ready to go? Oh, wow. Isn't that surprising if they would do that? Oh, my goodness. How nice. I wonder if they also telegraphed what they were going to have for breakfast for the next two weeks. People that believe this stuff, folks, I swear to God, I just don't understand it. Now, people have asked me over the weekend with all the stuff that's going on, the fact that we go down 140 handles in the S&P and now we're back almost to the highs where we were on Friday within about 20 points away. I mean, give me a break. This market's telling you that they've made some kind of agreement already. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to figure that out. I don't know. I mean, that's the way it looks like to me. I mean, if you ever use the word nuclear before in any of these markets, it'd be limit down faster than you could shake a stick, and that's not happening. So there must be some agreement being made. That's just my two cents worth. All I know is when they're going to use a nuclear option, they're certainly not going to tell anybody, are they? No. And this thing about the sanctions, they don't work. They never have, and they already plan for these things when they do these things. So none of that stuff really means very much from my perspective. Now, people have asked me, have I ever seen anything like this before? Of course, I have a lot of different ones. The one, the most dramatic that came to my mind was in 1972, trading at Conti Commodities. We had just had a big grain report, and it was very, very bearish, and Ivan Auer, who was the guy here in the squawk box for Conti Commodity, was on the line. And he said, well, he said, it looks like we're going to be limit down in just about most of the options of some of the far out ones that are trading at a big discount, or maybe we'll be trading. He said, but the rest of them will be pretty much limit down in about 20 minutes before. He says, a little buying showing up in the far end, but the near end is going to be their lock limit. They're not going to be trading for a couple of days. And about 10 minutes before, well, there's a lot of people in the pit, and there's a lot of, you know, a lot of seem to, a lot of people that look like they're doing some action. He said, I don't know what it is. Three minutes before to go, he comes on, and he's quivering in his voice. They're going to open limit up. They're going to open limit up. And they didn't trade for three days. And that was known, folks, as the Russian grain robbery. It was out of the bag by then, and away they went. They went up, I believe, I'm doing this from memory, and you're going back 50 some years. I believe they were up three days in a row, and these were limits were 15 cents. They weren't at the 30 and 45 limits that we have now. These were 15-cent limits, which was still quite a bit, because beans were trading for four or $5. That was a perfect example where the continuity of thought in the markets had changed. In other words, people were thinking one way and had to be the other. That's pretty much what we might be looking at here in the stock market. If you remember yesterday, excuse me, on Friday, I spent a great deal of time talking about the importance of what was happening with the S&P coming into the close. And I want to bring this up to you to see it. I've updated it today just to show you where we were. There was that exponential, 13-day exponential moving average. I said we had to close above that. The 382 number came in at 43.71. I believe we closed at 43.75 or 43.80 right on the line. And then last night, of course, we were down 150 handles and we're right back up there again, folks. That is not bearish action. It's taking all the bearish news that you can possibly get that's in the news all the time and that's the main thing that you're watching.  When you, and maybe this will turn around and go down. I don't know. All I can tell you is the market's acting pretty nicely given the fact that we got a nuclear Holocaust going on and all the other bad things that are supposed to be going on in the world. And yet that is not what the market is telling us what it's doing. So it's got all changed by the end of the day. But right now it's saying, hey, there's something not right out here. And so we need to pay close attention to that. That's for absolute sure. Now there's the one, the one market that has really surprised me. Well, I mean, it surprised a lot of people, but take a look at the bond market, folks. We, let me get this up here so you can take a look at it here. Now they're switching over now to the June bonds that you'll notice here that we, we gapped up five handles from 152 up to 157. The 382 number came in at 156.28. And the high in those bonds last night was 156.28. That's exactly where they went to. They backed off about two points from there. They're still up in that ballpark, but these markets, they're very, very volatile. So pay very, very close attention to them because if you don't use stop from these markets, you know, that's pretty much what you want to be looking at. Yeah, the, there's someone posted the thing from Martin Armstrong about the Asiats and the little girl, but I thought you'd get a kick out of that. Anyway, he used the word Scheisers. Of course, the word Scheisers in German is the word for poop. So that's, that's neither here nor there. Okay, let's get back here. The scenario that we're probably looking for, for a crash based on that 1982, and excuse me, 1987 to 1929 scenarios, it could still happen, but all we have to do is just close above that number in the S&P. And we're not very far away from it. We're trading it last, I saw it was about 62 or something like that. And it just needs to go a little bit higher and you'll be able to see that it's getting ready to, getting ready to possibly roll over. There are other markets that are not acting very, very nicely as far as being bullish and stuff. Look at the crude oil, folks. You would think crude oil would be going through the moon and also gold going through the moon. Yeah, they're up a little bit. I don't even know, yeah, crude oil's still up a little bit, but, well, actually crude oil's reversed and gone down now. So we're, well, not down a lot, but down quite a bit from where it was last night up at that 99 level. Same thing with the gold. So I'm just bringing these to your attention because I follow the patterns and when the patterns are not telling me what the story that they're trying to tell you in the market, there's something not right and that's all I'm trying to alert you to the fact that these deals might already be done.  Well, for me anyway,<PHONE_NUMBER>. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. 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At tfnn, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority in technical market analysis and it's not just dry, tedious text either. tfnn airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com and tfnn's YouTube channel with Tiger TV, every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern. For free, each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at tfnn.com or on tfnn's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, tfnn, educating investors. Call now, toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER>. Okay, we're back folks and I posted the chart of the Russian stock market, the RSX, it's called the Vanek, Russia ETF. They've closed the market in Russia today, folks. They were expecting a little bit of a down move. They were down 33% on Friday and you can see we're ready to break the trend line going back to 2009 if it in fact is a valid trend line. So also the Russian ruble is up about 50% in two days against the US dollar, dropped it scar, let's say that again, it dropped against the US dollar, 50%. So a lot of that is already being factored in and believe me, these military guys, they factor in that kind of stuff when they're getting ready to do these operations. That's my guess because they have to sort of answer with people at home, even though when you have a situation like you have in Russia, not necessarily so. But I wanted to bring to your attention here something that is important that we talked about several times last week and I wanted to bring it to your attention again and that is the news and how it operates. Look at here folks, this was much, much worse than what we have going on in the Ukraine right now. We lost 2600 US citizens or mostly US citizens on 9-11. You notice on 9-11, when it occurred, you'll see that was 9-11, we rallied, we opened sharply lower, this is a weekly chart. We were closed for five days before that. We gap down sharply right to the 1.618 level then we rallied up to the 61% retracement then went down for 10 months, finally making our low in October of the next year. So all I'm doing is showing you these patterns and how they react to some of this stuff. The news doesn't always, it anticipates what's already happened and that's one of the things that you've got to try to remember when you're least trying to look at some of this stuff. That's all I'm trying to do. It's all related to keeping your powder dry and making sure you don't risk very much. It's not the amount of money that you lose. It's not about the money you don't make, it's the amount of money that you don't lose and that's the whole key. Remember Buffett's two rules. Number one rule is don't lose money. Number two, don't break number one rule and that's really what you're when you're looking at here. Now I've been asked to talk about gold a little bit. I'm very, very bullish gold, not on the short term. The short term, we made a major high up there at 1974 level. We've pointed that out a half a dozen times but I wanna go down memory lane here just a little bit and go into where I was back in August of 1976. If you'll see the low in gold at that time, we were trading just about $100 an ounce when I went to work at Drexel that week in the first week of August of 1976. They gave me 40 accounts to trade. 40 commodity accounts, it would've been dormant. They all had money in them or ready to trade and so yeah, here comes a new kid on the block and so they throw me some money and say, okay, my client's here at Drexel is what my boss told me. He said, they're accustomed to losing money and they're accustomed to making money. The one thing they're not accustomed to doing is losing all their money. He said, if you lose more than 25%, you're gonna be put on a leave of absence until you figure out what you did wrong. So keep that 25% thing in mind and of course, I started buying it at about $1.05 and I just kept buying and buying and buying and so the question that was posed to me, where do I think we are compared to where we are back then and I believe where we are now is where we were in March of 78. We made a double top up there with gold at around $200 an ounce and then we had a tremendous break, believe it or not, tremendous break of $25 an ounce. Now remember, the margin on this stuff was about 1,000 bucks at that time. So eventually it went to 860 but then it started to rise and then when we got up to $250 an ounce, we had a big correction to $50 an ounce, okay? And I was watching the FIP numbers on these things. The low from 78 into December of 78 was exactly 61%. I mean, not to be a rocket scientist to figure that and it was the old high at 200. So I started piling on gold and then I bought some more in the first ABCD which was out in about March and my goal was to sell it in early January of 2000, excuse me, of 1980. And the reason for that is if I sold it in January, my goal was right around $700 an ounce is what I was looking for measuring ABCDs. I wouldn't have any tax liability on that until 1982 because I had 18 months to work with it. So that's exactly what I did. The moral of this story is this, I had two of my best customers that I got out of them around 680 I believe in the gold and gold went up into the January 20th for three weeks. It went straight up to 860 where it was limited up that day on January the 20th of 1980. And they never spoke to me again because they missed that last $200. I was so shocked. I made all the necessary apologies and stuff didn't make any difference. They didn't wanna lose that last $200. Unfortunately, they moved their accounts over to Dean Witter and I know that they wrote those down all the way, I mean, all the way way below $400 an ounce. And not that I have any, I washed my hands of it. There's nothing else I could do about it but that's what you're dealing with when you're watching here. I missed this last part of this run up in gold. I got out of the long gold. I mean, we've done very well in gold last year. It was a fabulous year. And we got out of the longs around 1865 and I missed that last $100. But I'm gonna get it back and I'm just waiting for the time to buy it. So my game plan is I want to see how the market handles all this stuff that's going on. And believe me, folks, we're having extremely things that are usually incredibly bullish to gold and also to crude oil if they're not acting right. That in itself tells you that there's something not going on that should be correct. You know what I mean? There's something not right. That's the bottom line. That's really what we're looking at. So keep in mind that that's the things that we're paying attention to. So hold on one second here. I wanna do something here. I gotta do something. Where is it? Hold on just a second, boys and girls. Gonna take me a minute here and we're gonna see. Hold on. Gotta do something here. There we go. All right. There we go. I've gotten the stock market starting to pick up again. Pretty good. So that's what the market's doing is telling you that this deal is already done, folks. I think maybe Putin has surrendered and gone back to Moscow. Who knows? That's exactly what it could be, I suppose. But we're gonna be watching it as we go through watching some of these things here early this morning and we'll see what's going on with some of these other things. Okay, now I wanna cover one other thing in one of these charts and then we've got a break coming up and I've got to cover a few things. Here's another one here on the news situation, folks, today. If you listen to what's happening, I know the natural gas that we have here in our country is the same natural gas that they have in Europe. The difference is theirs is in Europe and ours is here. We have a surplus of natural gas here, folks. You can see the head and shoulders pattern. So when you watch the news this morning on Bloomberg or Sunday night, whenever you wanted Bloomberg seen in, they were always telling you how crazy it is in the natural gas in Europe, and it is. The natural gas in Europe is selling for three and four times what our natural gas is selling for here. And the other thing that the people don't realize is that the people in Europe, especially Germany and some of the Baltic countries, they're really dependent upon Russia for natural gas. And if he turns it off, they're gonna freeze. So let's pay attention to that, too.<PHONE_NUMBER>. We'll be back to talk more about natural gas. 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Now that leads me to the question that Jeff and Philly asked me this morning is, is when you have a big gap in a garterly pattern that is completing, what do I do? Boy, I'll tell you what I do is I stand aside. There's two danger signals when we trade patterns, folks. The two danger signals are A, gap, which you don't see gaps too often, but you do see them. Gaps is one, and the second thing are really wide-ranging bars. Boy, if you wanna see a wide-ranging bar, boys and girls, I'm gonna show you one. And this is the one that was so dogged on scary. And that's the one that we had on Thursday and then again on Friday in the S&P. And you can see we're back up to that 43.71 again. We're getting ready to go through that exponential moving average. And that's gonna violate the situation that we had thinking that it was gonna roll over and possibly call a big down move. Maybe the down move will come, but so far it's not happening today. And with all the bad news, if it is in fact bad news and I'm beginning to think that it isn't, that really doesn't make any difference. So it's about the money that you don't lose, folks. That's the whole key. Keep that in mind. Now also, one of the things I was watching last night, given the fact, I wanna go into the grains here just a little bit because this is an important fact here to look at because this is what I wanted to show. This was the 382 retracement in the grains. We had a high at 1760. We broke roughly $2 a bushel. And last night we gapped up and we hit the exact 382 retracement on that, folks, at 1647.  That's how quickly the market dropped. Of course, it's bounced around. We've rallied back a little bit from that level, but it hit its spot on and is still trading substantially below it. So these are the ones. Now, when I see a gap like this and it gaps exactly at my price, then I have something to hang my hat on. And the reason for that is, Jeff, if it's at the exact price where I wanna act and it's at the opening as it was here in the beans last night, I have the opening price in my favor plus I have the gap. So I have two things that allow me to control the risk. The 382 and then also the opening price. And boom, therein gives me the reasoning why I can take that trade because I can control my risk there. Now, if the market would open substantially below that 382 and then ran up to it, I have to change my strategy for two reasons. One, I'm way above the opening price, okay? And that takes one of the factors out. And the second reason is, I don't know if the 382 is gonna stop or not. So that's the reasoning behind it. It's all related and you could close your eyes, do the 382, put your stop in and you're gonna be right about two out of three times without any trouble at all. But still, you still have to make that decision of whether you wanna take that trade or not based on what that pattern is really trying to tell you. So I hope that gives you some ideas of what we're looking at in here. Okay, I had a couple other things that I wanted to cover here with the futures markets. Let me get this one up here. And that is the, I wanted to get the palladium up. You wanna see something that is, now palladium is used in electronics, of course folks, but look at the high that we made in the palladium on Thursday. It was exact 78% level, okay? To the exact 78% level. And look what happened. We went from 2,700 all the way down to 2,400 and one day that's a $300 drop in palladium. But that's a big contract, folks. This is 20, cost a lot of money to trade this puppy because these things are worth each hundred points is worth thousands of dollars. So it hit the 61% retracement. You see there in February on February the 1st, right on the money. And then we had the one hit on Thursday right there. So that there, something else is telling you if this is a wartime thing, then why is it selling off? And that in there in lies the rub from looking at it from a technical perspective as we look at it for today. If you have any questions, it's<PHONE_NUMBER>. And if we can try to get any people to call in for any questions, I'll be more than happy to answer them. Someone's asked a question about the 1929 crash, excuse me, the 87 crash, I'll bring that up again. This scenario that we're looking at is not working the way that it was supposed to do. We were supposed to have a real sharp down day on Friday and we did not get that. It started on Thursday and Friday was just continuing up. That broke the sequence of what we were supposed to be looking for. And that's why when you had that news coming out of war and everything and they're showing every single, every single TV station folks, every single cable outlet, Fox, CNN, MSNBC, and what was the other one? BBC all had the same pictures of the war, the same pictures of the tank running over the car with the van in it. And if you ever, if you saw that, do you know that that man got out of there? His neighbors pulled him away after the tank pulled away. They pulled him out of that car and cut him out of it. He had a few scratches on him, but he had no broken bones and he didn't even have to be hospitalized if you can believe that. It looked like he was crushed to death, but in fact, he actually was. And I actually watched him walk away from the car. So it was really quite amazing. Watching this stuff, and I do get involved with watching the news because I want to see how the market handles it. And I'll tell you, it's heart wrenching to see what is going on. And it's, but you just got to wonder, what's true and what isn't. Boy, and I'll tell you anymore, you got to put a little tongue in cheek saying, I wonder what they really mean by that. So another reason why you've got to be very careful. Let's get back here to this gold market and I've got to get, where is it here? I think it's right here. I hope it is anyway. Where is the gold? Well, my goodness, I've lost my gold chart. That was my big, I had a special thing on gold that I want to cover. Oh, here, it's got to be right here. Hold on here, I swear we got to be it. There we go. Okay, here is the gold that we're looking at. I wanted to give you the reasoning behind this. Okay, hold on, yes it is. Bitcoin, I think is just making a 382 retracement Bob up there around 40,000, 42,000, whatever it is. I don't think it's going to get much higher than that. And then we'll start down. This is the gold, this is the weekly chart. You'll notice the 78% levels there at 1977. The high was 1976. We backed off a little more than $120. I think we're trading, I thought it would, I think we might get down to 1838 on this move, but I really believe this is the beginning of something really big happening in gold folks. The $64 question is, is what's going to happen here in this next 10 days? Because if all we can back off is about $200 in the gold, this old cowboy is going to put the old borough together, get my old saddlebags up and fill them up with water and beef jerky and go out there and do some gold mining because I'm going to be getting back into the gold market. I'm actually never out of it because I have physical gold, but I love silver. I've always said ever since I started on this show 15 years ago, buy silver rounds. Anytime they're around $14, they've been down there maybe three times over the past 12, 15 years. And I still believe those will go to $50 or even more once this inflation sets in because the Fed is between the proverbial rock and a hard place,<PHONE_NUMBER>. Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area, including the surrounding St. Petersburg, Tampa and Clearwater markets? Tiger Real Estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay Area. Whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value or you're in the market for a second home or investment property, Tiger Realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the Tampa Bay Area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels. From the price you should be paying per square foot in certain up and coming areas to the type of cash flow investment properties are capable of creating, Tiger Real Estate can help you make the best decision when it comes to all areas of the market. Before you make one of the biggest decisions of your financial future, call Tiger Real Estate LLC today at<PHONE_NUMBER> or email us at tiger at tfnn.com. That's<PHONE_NUMBER>. Call us today. The technology around us is changing every day. With so much happening, it can seem impossible to keep up with all the information. David White's investment newsletter, The Technology Insider, is designed to give you all the information you need to understand the technology that shapes today's markets and tomorrow's future. David White has made his living staying on a cutting edge of technology. The weekly newsletter will give you specific recommendations for value tech stocks as well as entry prices, target prices and stops to set for each trade. Dave delivers his weekly newsletters every Friday with updates throughout the week. You can get The Technology Insider at tfnn.com for only $37.50. Sign up for David's newsletter, The Technology Insider, and get an inside look at everything the technology sector has to offer. Try it risk-free today with our guarantee. tfnn, educating investors. Are China A shares hot or not? If you trade China A shares, now may be time to take a closer look.  China A shares in either direction. Visit directioninvestments.com today. An investor should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the direction shares carefully before investing. The prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares. To obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus, please contact direction shares at<PHONE_NUMBER>. The prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing. An investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor and financial advisor should be considered as a good partner. The prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing. The prospectus should be included in the financial advisors and investors. If you are interested in buying a prospectus or a business or a business, you can purchase them from www.chart.com or www.chart.com or www.chart.com or www.chart.com or www.chart.com or www.chart.com Well, trading gods are calling me to see what's beeping here and let's see where it is here. Yeah, okay, there's where we are. All right, let's move on here to a couple little things here that may or may not mean anything. I've got to look at something closely here, folks. And I want to get this up here to see where we are here. Okay, that's a big 10-4. Let me look here and make sure we got some of these things moving around a little bit and we'll move on from that level here. Okay, hold on just a second. I got to double check something, folks, otherwise, okay, all right. That's a good thing. All right, let's move on here to something else I want to cover here, very important. This euro, folks, this is indicative of what's happening with these currencies. They're just not doing very much. They're up and down in a trading range here since December between $115 and $110. I mean, that's a $5,000 range, but that's nothing for the euro once it starts moving. And so I'm watching that along with the gold and all the other things that are going on. So hold on, second, folks, my beepers are going off like crazy, so I need to be able to say that I can see what is going on here so that I know what is going on here because sometimes what they tell you is not what you're doing. Okay, we made as high as checking here. We matched the high last night at $43.85 in the S&P. If you would have told anybody last night after being down 140 handles, it was going to go up there and match that high. You wouldn't say, given that news of nuclear holocaust and whatever, who knows? We'll see what's going on. That's my two cents worth, folks. When I'm giving you this, that's basically it. I particularly liked the way that Martin Armstrong framed that thing between the atheist and little girl because sometimes you think you know something and in fact, it really doesn't. Okay, someone says, do you and your best contacts have a guess where Bitcoin, Ethereum, Cardano are headed? John thinks that they're going to go, John Jameson, who I rely on in this, thinks they are going to go lower. He's looking for maybe $25,000 in Bitcoin, maybe $1,500 in Ethereum and Cardano, maybe down around $0.50. But those are just his guesses. Remember, that's what they are, his guess. That's what they were last week. I don't think they've changed any because he's been showing me pretty much what's been happening with this thing, what's been going on here in Europe. And that's the main thing.  Now, if they're going to institute a nuclear option, they're going to tell everybody, right? Yeah, okay, yeah. Well, that's what Custer did. He said, here comes my reinforcements are coming over the hill. Unfortunately, they were the Indian tribe and not his reinforcements. So that's what you've got to be able to look at. I'm not a crypto person. All I do is look at the charts. I don't know anything about those cryptos. I look at the charts and that's really all I did. I've never owned one. I haven't owned one yet. And maybe someday in the near future, I might. But so far, I haven't done anything like that at all. So that's primarily what I'm paying close attention here to today, just to see how these markets react to the news and these levels that were really closely following, which you can see what we just did is go up and match the high that we made on Friday in the S&P. So these are just a few of the others. Now, Dow Jones, E-mini did not get that high. It only got up to the 78% level, but it's still early. My goodness, it's just a few hours into the trading day. So that's not a big deal. So we'll watch that as we go through looking at some of these other charts. Now, remember, folks, we've seen these big moves that we're seeing in the grains. Remember, folks, we had a high of, I believe it was 10, no, 966 in the wheat. And we went all the way down to 866, okay? And folks, we're already halfway back of that move in the wheat as we're speaking right now. That's where that beeper that just went off that told me that we were, we've made a 50% retracement of that move in the wheat. So these grains are not dead yet.  I think that was Samuel, Samuel, what was his name? What was, I can't, oh dear, this is my daughter. I mean, she's reads all that stuff of the classics and stuff. And I can't, from St. Louis, from St. Louis, Missouri. Charles, was it Charles Dickens? Yeah, Charles, yeah, Charles Dickens. Wasn't it Charles Dickens that did the thing? I don't know, I forget what it was. Tom Sawyer, okay, let's move on here. Folks, I did not stay up last night late, I couldn't do it. I really planned my day around not having that happen because I was afraid that if I got staying up all night that I was gonna be a basket case all day and I didn't wanna do that. I get too emotionally watching these war things. I was never able to go into the service because of my, I had a hearing, I had a very, well here, I was totally deaf in my left ear. And so I was not able to go into the service but I certainly done everything I can since the day I couldn't get in, since I was 18, I've done everything to try to support the servicemen any way that I possibly can because it's an honor to do it and I was not able to do that. So let's move on to a couple of other things. I wanna ask a question about this 1987 thing. This was the real key here, folks. Let me show you, this was this we were looking at. Remember this was October the 16th of 1987. That was a Friday, okay? The next day it fell apart. That day should have been Thursday, folks. It did not fall apart. The market came back roaring and screaming. It started out badly. I mean the Euro, the Russell had made new lows on the move. And you'll notice here that we didn't do that and the market came screaming back. That was the first sign that there was something not right in that scenario. Now maybe that scenario will play out in a different way in a couple of days but the way it was close to be played out was not doing the way that it was supposed to be doing. So that was the first sign that you had to be careful. The fact that it opened down 100 handles Sunday night was the first sign, oh, maybe it's going to work. It went down 140 handles and then started to edge its way back up.  I mean, that's not how bear markets work.  They really do, they stay down. They don't give you a chance to get back in over and over again, but that's my two cents worth. So we'll be watching. There's just going to have some incredible moves here with these things, folks, with some of these things. So just stay tuned. We're going to see some really great things. And these patterns, they work in all these markets. What I'm doing now is I'm moving down to a smaller timeframe for my usual half hour. I go down into 15 minutes and I'm working, Bo's asking a question. Do I know the word handle as it applied to market prices? All I remember from the, I'll give you, here's my trade, these are the trading cards that I used. I'll put it up here. You can see this was the seller card and the other side is a buyer card. I use it as notepads, but on this, the handle here, you can see where it says cars, C-A-R-S, I'm sure you can see that. That meant it was a road car. It was a railroad car, filled with this stuff. And the handle on that was whether it was a 75 or a 76, that's how it handled. That's, did not post shucks. I'll hold it up here. Maybe you can see it. I don't know if you can. Oh, you know what? That doesn't work because you can't see my, sorry about that. I'll break one of these in tomorrow, folks, and you guys can see it. I've got thousands of them that I got, I was still there, I'll bring it in, I'll bring it in and trade it. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority in technical market analysis, and it's not just dry tedious text either. TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV, live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern for free. 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The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices.  First time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. TFNN.com, educating investors.  The Tiger First Mortgage Program may be the program for you. The best rate on a five-year CD in the country right now according to bankrate.com is paying 1% per year or $1,000 per a $100,000 invested. The Tiger First Mortgage Program pays 7% per year, paid monthly on secured, high-value, billable properties in St. Petersburg, Florida. The investment is for four years, paying 7% per year or $7,000 per a $100,000 invested. Your investment is secured by high-value real estate in St. Petersburg, Florida. 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So we're gonna be watching that for tomorrow as a potential buy, because on a timeframe of 15 minutes over the last day and a half, Sunday night and all through Monday, that's gonna be a small ABCD there at 1876. So that's gonna be pretty good support in the gold. But stop and think. You got really bullish news, and look at this thing. It's down 40 bucks from the high. This is not how they act, boys and girls. That isn't not how they act. There's just, you can't do it any other way.  When these markets don't act, when the news is there, there's something wrong. Somebody knows something more than what you know, and the faster you figure that out, the better off you're going to be. Look at crude oil, folks. Crude oil is another example. You know, how high did we get last night here? If you'll take a look at this, I believe we got as high as $99 per barrel, and now we're trading a good $5 a barrel under that, making new lows from Sunday night at 94.80. I mean, this is another market that's just not acting, you know, like it's bullish. So somebody knows something more than what you might think they do. So therein lies the rub, as Shakespeare would say. I think it was Shakespeare. Maybe it was somebody else. I don't know. Samuel Clemens, that was the guy's name. I'm trying to think. Okay, let's move, also known as Tom Sawyer. Well, let's move on. No, Tom Sawyer was like, what was it? I can't remember. Light me up, boys and girls, I'm done. We'll see you tomorrow. May God bless, live every day in an attitude of gratitude and may God bless.


Before I started to put into context some of the remarks I'm going to make let me give you a quick overview of the Royal Bank of Canada. We're probably the largest bank you've never heard of in the 15th top global bank in the world with Canada's largest bank. And we very much take our Canadian heritage as part of our services to clients going forward. Our heritage in natural resources, in energy and in infrastructure. We have 70 global professionals who advise corporates and funds on buying and selling either the companies or the assets that sit behind those companies in the infrastructure space. On the corporate side we have advised clients like SSE on the disposal of some of their wind farm assets. And also here in Ireland we advise Bourd Gauch on the sale of its energy business in 2014. And we also advise a lot of the pension funds and infrastructure funds who are looking to acquire these assets right across the infrastructure space. i gael gyn dryf yn ychydig o'r rhan o gyflwypo a gywir o gymrychiio'r gwybod. Ym hanfyd, ryw gael gyn y gŵr o'r penderfyniadau i現l ym Y Europe. Byddwn ni'n ei wneud sawan gwyfamin iawn i gael gysgwyno a gwasanaethau yn gweithio y byd yn y fyddiol yn gweithio'r llaw gennaed yn p�А. Byddwn ni wedi gweld ei wneud ar y cerdd, mae'n gweithio ychydig gyffredig yn cael blaenntau sydd yn gweithio'r gêmach sydd yn cael ei wneud yn cael llwynt. We're seeing, in some countries, nuclear either being progressively phased out altogether or old generators being replaced over the long term with a new generation of reactors going forward. Importantly, we've seen those changes in the technology mix, leading to expansion of small-scale, decentralized energy generation which can appeal directly to the consumers as well as we've heard. This investment background really reflects three areas. On the evolving market, regulatory conditions we've heard of, we've got the push-pull of trying to keep down costs for consumers but trying to ensure we have security of supply. We're seeing the environmental controls on the levels of emissions that we have in our European nations. We also see the financial incentives have been put in place to invest in low-carbon generation. It's these that are attracting some of this low-cost capital into the energy sector. Emery mentioned in his earlier address about the impact of the eurozone crisis on the European utilities and I don't think we can underestimate that standing where we are today in 2015. We've seen since 2007 this massive fall-off in the market caps of the European energy utilities. They've fallen by more than £330 billion so if you take EON for an example that means they've moved down from a market cap of close to £90 billion to £17 billion today and equally with RWE you've seen the move from £52 billion of market cap to £7.5 billion today. Their balance sheets therefore are under pressure, the rating agencies are looking at their credit ratings and they're much more constrained in what they can do as part of this expansion of the energy generation landscape. In particular, they're constrained to follow through on some of the blue sky thinking that otherwise sits within some of these very progressive utilities as well. So there are very large investment opportunities for investors and they're very attracted to that but they sometimes find the interplay between the markets and the EU and national level policy complex and making what would otherwise be a very attractive investment environment somewhat more uncertain. So how do you attract this low-cost capital into the energy sector? The good news is that certain sub-sectors of energy are now seen as very much core infrastructure. So we have pension funds for instance who are keen to acquire long-term investments to match their long-term pension liabilities attracted to opportunities in renewables, in transmission, distribution and even into some of the midstream energy infrastructure that some of the oil and gas majors are now disposing of. Capital is currently in plentiful supply. We are in a low-cost interest rate environment. Investors are looking to directly invest in real assets in order to improve their returns. So we saw in 2014 about 750 infrastructure deals closed across the globe and that's about $450 billion of investment. And we also have a very competitive and liquid debt market post the recession and post the financial crisis that's available to support these buyers. So together with a low-interest rate environment we're seeing some very attractive valuations for some of these yield-based assets across the mix. And we've also seen the re-emergence of some of the public market. Institutional investors now interested in finding ways to directly invest in infrastructure. So we've seen the emergence of some of the yield codes in the US which have faltered over the summer but also here in the UK and also in Spain as well. But we have to remember one thing. These investors have lots and lots of choice. They are looking at all of the asset classes across the infrastructure space. So we advised recently CDPQ, a Canadian pension fund who bought a 25% stake in London Array for $1 billion. But at the same time they were looking at Eurostar and acquired that and they also have made an investment in Heathrow Airport. And it's the same fund manager that's looking at all of those direct investments. So we have to be competitive and we have to provide stability and predictability of revenues and costs and most importantly a supportive regulatory and political environment. I put a chart up here just to flag some of the key, the general drivers of financial investors risk appetite and if we take just the column on the left, the low risk end of the spectrum, we've seen recently investors in the current low interest rate environment buying at its historic lows. So we're seeing pension funds looking at regulated entities, transmission, distribution, some solar within that as well, which have inflation link revenues, strong cash yields at levered nominal returns of 7% to 9%. It wasn't long ago that some of the utilities in the debt markets were having to borrow rates not dissimilar to that. And even when we move up to more medium scale risk, wind farms, biomass, we're still seeing returns of between 9% and 11%. So again, still very, very competitive to what we've seen in the past. And we're also seeing lots of new entrants. So we've seen a rush of the Canadian pension funds move out of some of the other parts of the infrastructure space like water utilities into some of the renewable energy generation. I've mentioned CDBQ, but we obviously also sort of Brookfields come in and acquire Vorgos's renewable energy business here in Ireland as well and a mix of investors across the whole piece of the energy sector. So moving on to some of the challenges that do exist though and I'm going to make two snapshots points for discussion. One is on conventional generation and the other is on renewable energy. Firstly, on conventional generation, it's quite clear that there is a mid to longer term requirement for new facilities, but the signals are currently on pricing are currently insufficient for financial investors to invest. We've got low part spark spreads, we've got full in output, we all know why, we all know the history, but even if you look at the predictability around spark spreads looking to recover over time as demand picks up or as old plants are taken off the system, we still have continuing uncertainty about what prices they're really going to be able to achieve with the influx of renewables on the system and also what load factors they're going to be able to achieve as well. Capacity mechanisms have offered some certainty, but not all and certainly not to the level that some new entrants were hoping for. So in 2014 in the UK we saw an auction take place of capacity auction, but the clearing price was below the annual fixed cost of most existing plants. So those plants are going to have to secure other streams of revenue in order to ensure their economic availability really from spark spreads and from system balancing services going forward. And then we look at challenges for renewables. I think in the past renewables were really seen as an invest and forget class of assets, so investors put in the upfront capital outlay, it was over a long term, they crossed their fingers, they hoped the weather would perform and they got a fairly dependable cash flow. But we've seen upsets, as we've mentioned in Spain in the past and we're seeing in the UK recently, the government changed the climate change levy and take away the lex, which has meant for most of the investors a 10% drop in their revenues. And we've also seen political uncertainty and other people have mentioned about the change of heart and the Tory party and around there about onshore wind and lots of people have put a lot of money into development that are suffering lots of pain at the moment. And then going forward I think we're seeing many projects facing the beginning of power market risk which was unusual for some of those who perhaps had attractive feed-in tariffs in the past. And the trend towards top-up tariffs has taken away some of that market protection. So suddenly we're seeing generators directly exposed to balancing risk which they're not really equipped to understand or take. And we're also seeing some basis risk on the generators ability to sell its output at the market reference rate, whatever rate that's been set as the price for the top-up tariff. And then going forward, you also see the potential for some negative market prices which will take away some of the volume certainty that those investors had relied upon in some of their base case. So renewables will still be a massive and significant area of focus for investment going forward. The scale of offshore is very attractive to these investments equally onshore and solar. But these risks aren't straightforward to a set as the market changes and I do think you may see some of the recent valuations and very high prices being paid impacted because of that. So what are the challenges for the next decade? How do we create a positive investment environment for energy going forward? I think certainty is key. Capital is attracted to certainty and any signals that governments can give about the extent of the commitment it's going to support and also the types of technology it would like to have as part of its overall diverse generation mix are going to be very important for investors. I think one thing that's always ignored as well is investors very much focus on the long-term marginal costs as well when they look at their base case business plans and I don't think there's enough sharing about some of the experiences that we are having particularly in some of the new technologies and I take offshore wind as an example where we really need to share the experiences we have in terms of the costs of maintaining and the performance of these turbines that are far out to see in order to ensure that the investors reach their return thresholds and get confident to bring their IRR requirements down. Finally, I think we've talked a lot about some early-stage technology about some consumer-led technology. It's still very challenging for these types of large-scale investors to invest in and we still need to be open that we need government support in some of these areas and the Green Investment Bank in the UK has been quite helpful in terms of funding some of the earlier-stage technology in order to get investors comfortable to come in behind them as the maturity of the technology is proven. As we look at the demand side going forward we've seen a lot about consumption reduction for consumers we've seen lots of inspirational ways that consumers should manage their own efficiency going forward in their desire to do that and also demand control in order to match generation patterns but we have to be innovative about thinking about large-scale opportunities that we can attract this low-cost capital into in order to make them part of the story going forward as well. Thank you.