I'm hoping you can hear me because it's day by day How's it going Tressa? How are you doing up there? How are things up north? Hope everybody's having a simple end of day. Are you gonna have a mic? You're gonna have the other one. I Just put a mic on. Can you guys hear me? Okay? Let me know I'm just gonna see if on Tube you I Can hear nope don't want to see commercial So we can hear me Okay, we can hear me now We are gonna do this JB is gonna Face time me. She's walking through our house So hello everybody. Welcome. We are artists till death. I'm Erica over yonder is Jeffrey the director I'm sure that is not my leg. That is Jeff's beautiful shin But we I'm sure will either walk through the paint or hop in and say hi and We're just till death.  You usually at 6 p.m. Except for on Tuesdays at 2 p.m. And every day I mean every weekday and We're gonna try something fun Can you guys hear him? We are gonna try something fun. So if You guys are new here. Hi, welcome. You should subscribe if you haven't We Typically do mostly resin today. It's gonna be acrylics.  I Have a paper right here for him because he likes to lay down on paper I Think it makes him think that he's Personal I guess that he feels like he's part of it Right So But he has bronchitis again. Anyways, we are gonna do Acrylic pouring and Jeff has it in his head to do a large scale one I'm gonna take it. I'm gonna literally just go You're gonna do a flippy in there. Yeah, cool. It's gonna look great Right also everybody give hugs to vamp who Got attacked by an alien apparently and broke her shin and part of her kneecap anyways, fairy art mother Judy is taking care of her and Yeah, here we go. Thank you guys so much for Tuning in and seeing what we're up to I forgot what I was gonna say. Oh, yeah, this is Tammy Anderson's formula. I Haven't written down somewhere. Oh, I must just died. I must pull the van It's okay, bubba lay down So she told me the other day that I could share her recipe with you guys so while Jeff is Frosting is canvas cake I will show you guys some science Pillow paints in my gloss interior white house paint. That is what Jeff is using right now. I believe it's by Gildon Glidden Gildon and these are the formulas for Her everything else From cell activators brands of paint she uses this is not my formula I don't have the math or science brain to do this. This is her Information from her paid classes that she gave me permission to share with you guys so go to Tammy's channel Tammy Anderson and Give her some love and also if you're interested in acrylic stuff. She's One of the authorities and I feel very blessed to be able to call her and many other beautiful artists friends If you don't like YouTube you have to be cool with the fact that they bring a lot of artists together, right? So I would Love to tell you guys what colors I'm using but she makes these up for the class if she had an a pre-mix Thank You Claire for linking her channel she hadn't Sure go away first if she hadn't of Pre-mix these paints then I wouldn't be able to do this because me and science are not one That extra large split cup came from mixed media girl another super talented Acrylic and everything else artist So check her out As well I'm gonna just come around here and show you guys an overview of the cup Maybe you turn your hat around backwards. That'd be super rad It would already looks fun. It looks oceanic. Are you going for ocean-y things? So something important that Tammy told me you guys is that you want to layer your Or alternate your gloss in your non-metallic It's doing so many pretty things Your gloss and your non-metallics and the gold is special, but I can't remember what it Maybe I have the jar over here So a lot of all right, I don't think she left the gold the white is that he's mixing in as Amsterdam and I think all the colors are either Amsterdam or color art. Oh Extreme sheen 24 karat gold is the gold that we're using it apparently has magical properties Should I prepare a second canvas because that's a lot of It's very Yeah, gotcha gotcha. I thought you were gonna keep it simple and do just one flippy do Don't be scared be dedicated to what your initial idea was because that's something you always say that you wish you did Tammy Anderson is here. Whoop whoop All of these paints were premixed by Tammy Anderson Because I don't have the ability The science or the patients or the math math skills to do such I Message Tammy today, and I was like hey, I know I attended her class, but oh my gosh. Oh, it's happening. It's moment of truth Mommy mommy mommy mommy mommy Yeah, it's just right. Oh my goodness. I love it so far I Love it so far. Don't don't do crazy. Don't get crazy. No, no, no Don't it's actually Amazing you need to see it from another perspective You're gonna tilt it and get rid of all the negative space You guys if I try to do that, it'd be on me and not on the canvas Everybody's like wow. Whoa Jeff going big as usual The magic is going to build it's gorgeous. That's red leave it so sweet Lady Jay says I like it the dark spot at the top looks like a raven it does Do you have another canvas like that leave it and start another one I look down when I look back up there's beautiful Everything on canvas Thanks all 55 if you guys Where am I gonna put this I love it.  Hold on Creasy says well, you can try again, but this is fantastic. I wish you guys could see the glitter To be I want to I want you to do that again, but like with just these teal on teal on teal with the gold in it Babe, it's gonna make you feel better than tilt it Kind of done it with Tammy's formula. I mean without Tammy's formula. You know what I mean? Holy moly out of this world hearts amazing loving it Pour in a second canvas. I think it's just mixing all together It's so fun How acrylics will just pop up with some cells So many talented people on this live. I feel so blessed Paint doesn't want to stay separate like resin Fuji that is very True also that piece you're interested in is still available You have the Midas touch for reels Robert says tilt that second one agreed B Okay, what was gonna look like that that you can tell the first one. That's a pop-in Gg says Love it Thumbs up if you like it You can even give me a thumbs down if you don't should I put out another brown paper For this to set up on I Can put it in the dust-free zone first of all it's not wasted because you made something beautiful second of all It's not even our paint Third of all your back Resin pieces sorry everyone that can hear me tear paper That was easily as fun as that dude that just throws Unless you can keep it level do you want to tilt them off? We'll make you feel better Wait to stretch those out just slowly. Okay. Just tell me what you want the angle though Like just kind of maybe so this gets okay I'll stretch out some of this. They went and I'll pull it back Any other directional droopy likes like flattened no, like sometimes it starts into like puddles Like oh the tear dropping. Yeah, I think it would be fine if you wanted to move some of it But it's up to you Do you want me to flick it? Am I super drippy on that side? I'll move it off. Nice No, I Sorry guys. I'm washing my hands off My bed, okay Back over to the arts. Oh, those are so mermaidy car. Sorry about that everyone. I can't see anything So you want to do one more? Those cells look so fun. It sounded like sizzling bacon. That's funny. So Jeff's just doing Smushes right now, but in here in a second, I'm gonna do a big feather piece You're wondering if it dries the same on the coaster, I would imagine that it would be a Similar because our coasters are a little bit porous Just put them on the side because I'm only doing that 20 by 20 Hey, Joe Yeah, I'm gonna do that piece, but like the feathers that I've been doing I'm gonna try to recreate one of my these So as soon as Jeff gets we can you move that over for me?  Yeah, just lay it down on there be fine I mean we can cut it Okay, I like that spot JB all right you guys I'm nervous hella nervous super nervous, but I Know it's gonna be fine I'll grab them if you can um Answer questions this will not take all that long Okay, so Okay, here we go I'm nervous, okay JK, uh-huh, but I'm right-handed. I feel like I waste so much White paint like all of it. I try to do Using a hairdryer or an airbrush to move the white around and it just Either doesn't or Splatters I'm sure that's an issue that comes down to consistency which is apparently just my whole everything issue when it comes to success doing acrylics Whoops, do you think I should do my feather with this this one? Or the pointed So this one Because I feel like it needed it. That's why I did that Okay, so I'm gonna I'm gonna do it this way so it reads proper for the camera. That's gonna be My guide. I always put just a little bit above I was put just a little bit of White on top of the white to Just tell me where I'm supposed to go and I'm gonna start with I don't know what color this is I'm not gonna do a Big line of Not gonna do a bunch of color because I really want it to Be negative space. You guys don't know I'm a big fan of negative space and Because Tammy said I'm trying to alternate Gloss nope metallic and non-metallic Sheens finishes shades That's what I'm trying to do in theory. I don't know what this dark blue color is, but I'm a big Well, all right That is awesome So the next color when I try to do is a pink. Yeah, that's a flat color Okay, I Think that may be Did I do green? I didn't do gold Can you even? Even without I mean without a gold. I don't think so. All right, and now I'm gonna use a black Cell activator and I'm going to Just squirt it out onto the paper and I'm gonna take my this Get the white off of it. Kind of nervous.   So I'm gonna re-swipe that one I'm gonna do this side Not to redo that one Maybe I'll redo that one You may end up liking that one This may be the first time in my life that I liked the left side more than the right side on Any of my pieces That's such a You have a different angle Yeah, but usually it's the other side that works better What she's doing up to the side is she's just wiping the palette knife off on the paper So she can get a clean black Can you guys hear Jeff okay? What he just said if you can't hear him is I'm trying to make sure I have a clean palette knife on every swipe Now I'm just re-swiping the ones that I feel like need work That'll be good I mean you could probably do So now is the time where I'm going to add Thank you Some little accents And I think I'm gonna do that with some of like the brighter colors that kind of have lost their way So I'm gonna put some of the pinks and teals that you can't really see anymore Off to the side and just dip the back end of my paintbrush in those And use those to do my filigree Or at least to start the filigree Because once you go through it one time You pick up paint So each one of these little filigrees are now like a tie-dye I have to give credit to my ultra-talented husband Because these are kind of his Is that like saying his been like that?  Put some dots out here Okay, so you're talking about putting dots out here Yeah, like doing little Spoofty daisies Okay Since it's so much white on these outside areas I'm having to pick up color This one, right here It's getting away from me When you do these You just need to make sure that the flow is consistent So if everything's going this way Try to keep everything generally in this direction You want me to do one like this? Like a half moon? Maybe try to follow it and then just So you want me to do one like this? Or just I'm not sure what I feel about this I'm quite sure that I don't feel anything about this Should you do them or would you say like Yeah, I know that it was an application issue Like the idea was great I just didn't execute That's how easy it is if you mess up something I'm assuming So if you do If you don't If you don't If you think these are kind of out Put another Just kind of Make one here And then don't even put paint Just do them Like go in No like So I don't understand Don't put paint So it's going to keep getting lighter And it's not going to matter That's fine That looks just sitting out there By themselves I guess that's why I said Do the big long strokes So that it's kind of its own No I just want to understand Like I would gladly hand you this paintbrush Because apparently I'm not speaking the same Everybody loves it It's beautiful It's awesome I feel like I need Like one right here Or like you were saying one That comes out right here But I'm not sure If I should like tie in like this Unfortunately this is not a piece That I can just let it live Till tomorrow Maybe you think it would be down to Pull one like I thought you said down here But definitely like With it or Come off of it like Awesome I'm not going to mess it up You always have the best fill of grease There a way that I can move it That would make it better Yeah you have to get more paint Every time Basically all the ones Trying to get rid of that And it's just not You want to scrape it off? No I'm just trying to figure out I'm just trying to like Clean this up But it just It just keeps getting messy and messy So My goodness your scrape off Is so cleaner than mine was I guess that would make more sense It's tough doing this Standing over it Is there a way that I can adjust it To make it more comfortable The nature of That it's so easily fixed No it's just leave it It's just putting those out there It's just so much Paint That's true Alright so we'll leave it I was hoping there would be more splatter But now I want to try One of your Loop D I want to try that I'll just do a small one Like this size Thank you so much Gail He's dying The mechanism maybe Sorry For all the noise Gail thank you so very much For contributing to our channel Every dollar is greatly Greatly appreciated And it means very much to us Thank you Y'all don't think I won't let him Walk through paint and then on a canvas Mistaken He would sit down Oh gosh He would totally just sit down Don't we have another split cup Cause that one's got colors in them now I don't need a split cup I'll just do a regular cup I'm just going to do those dark teals That you just used anyways Alright I can't see what you guys are saying So don't say anything too amazing Till Jeff gets back Just one little booger Just a little Boogie So in Tammy's recipe That I'm using she did use Australian flow trawl Just heads up It's way different than American flow trawl And it makes Cells So much easier It's so weird for me to art without gloves on Cause I'm so used to doing Resin Gail I really appreciated that That's I needed a smile And I really thank you And everybody that shows up To watch our videos You guys make us smile And we can't do what we do without you guys So thank you so very much You're going to make me ugly cry Spend a minute Since I had a moment On YouTube Tammy says make it smooth So I'm going to do my best Now he's just waiting for us to blink And then he's going to I don't think you've been wrong with colors I want to do all of those oceanic colors That were on the top That look like a raven in your piece So That's some of the science Behind acrylic pours Some of the science behind acrylic pours Is that Some paints are heavier than others And so it does different stuff than others And science I'm just going to use all the aquas That she pre-mixed for us There's just two over here Yeah Here it is I want to just do Yeah, just kind of I'm just going to I just want to do one of these Why is it that the dirty cup always Looks better than whatever it is I'm going to do Okay, okay wait Okay wait, so I want to go And then that's it You know that's what I'm in my head about Oh my goodness Why is it so nerve-wracking, okay What is happening Fun, that was supposed to be here I hate everything Take that hair dryer and blow it That'll make a fun little piece Blow This This If y'all don't think I won't mix up another batch Sadly mistaken Okay This could all be on my canvas I'm going to do another take But I'm going to do this first Do it Put the colors like on the side So it just kind of falls in and then turn the cup I'm so bitter right now Sammy for leaving the small ones behind All of the ones behind We've used almost all of those I'm trying to get you guys on a tripod here I'm just trying to waste knot Real quick, y'all All right, crazy I'm going to move that one All right, we're getting muddy This is going to be My final attempt Sammy, I'm running out of weight I need you to come back This is the one that we made with the stripe Yeah, I used it But it's okay, this one's full What's up, Regina Regina was hidden I was like, I cannot Nude, nude, nude, sorry y'all Keeping up We have the best troll patrol One of them's a little bit On painkillers right now though When people are like, why do you have so many moderators I'm like, well Theresa, you got a wrench, you can slay them She's like, where's the vamp when you need it Same with you, Shane You got a blue wrench Next to your name And that is all you Get in there where you fit in there Okay, let's make this I'm just going to use the same cup So maybe Start your Act like you have a little baby cup Because this is such a big canvas I guess a small canvas for Yeah And we'll leave that dark one out A little bit more white for posterity Right Just a little, I'm scared Pulling it If only you guys could see This skirt right now Well, I'm going to start it off because it I'm still mad at that one Why do I feel like if that was on a Like A 36 by That size, it would look Amazing The inside of me wants me to go Yeah, turn it sideways This way Put that side over there Wait, say that again? One, two, three That's fun That's what I wanted Moving forward Maybe just stop I need to flick it from here Like I need to let it Yeah, maybe just stop Yeah, I just need to What's fun in that We're trying to do a Flat motion Which I think we'll get it You just have to I think you might Be a little bit easier if you're standing up Could be, but look at those Or just a really, you know, a lot of Really Your canvas But negative space is my jam And I feel like It's happened I'm just going to tilt this bit off And then pull it back in I'm just trying to Stretch out these cells a bit But I learned recently That you want to stretch Real slow That you don't run over anything Okay, I don't want to bring it all the way back in I think because I don't want the size Of these guys to close in I think Jeff is taking all of the Rest of the canvases with him To somewhere else I don't think it's muddy I think I wanted it to be blue And it's blues But less than learned If I want That All of that aquatic motion Then I need the canvas to be over there Because If you just do this It'll just be a straight line And so if I want the action Then I need to have the canvas out further Because that's where the action lands Maybe we'll do that tomorrow That's what looks good We do stuff like this We have like one that size Alright, so maybe tomorrow It'll be two o'clock Tuesday Tomorrow, so we'll do A, if you show them that Canvas, then they can get an idea Of how big we're going tomorrow Because I did say today was giant Because that was giant for us But so tomorrow we're going to do We're going to do a practice And then we're going to do one of those There are three dots at the bottom right That says flash Telling them as a four piece You have my phone, I can't tell you There's three that are the same But basically they're all together You can see them all together That will be the first set That I've signed my new government name You did The first Erica Thornton piece You almost forget your N No Everybody always forgets the N Let Jeff know if you can Hear him I like that set I didn't even mean to make a set But I'm here for it Think about making Little prints of them It just It sucks because You can't get that gold Like that shimmer in a print Yeah, it would be hard to get that gold We don't like to put resin Over canvases Especially these The cheaper canvases Because the resin just kind of goes Settle It just kind of settles in the middle And then it just kind of makes like this Really weird edgy Unless you probably flood it Two or three times If you put like a nice little black frame Or a peel frame around these I don't know, gold?  The quad is 8 by 10 And I have no idea what I'm going to price them at May just put them up as a bid Because I don't know how to price Acrylic pieces You guys think I need to do some up here Or leave it I'm not sure I'm like Over How much I'm still so confused about Acrylic pricing I don't have them on the site yet I'll get them up tonight before Dinner Leave the top corner Put two canvases down for the splash stop I love the name splash stop And definitely Could do Thanks sweet pea Thank you Carol You're talking to me but if you're talking to Jeff I'll let him know also I need a darker blue bit I think that's fun I like this bit being He's the warrior He is I like this bit being Kind of plain Apparently boycat found a fake mouse But Jeff thought it was a real mouse I would have fully thought that was a real mouse I have no idea where that came from Because he was looking at it like I think I might be happy with this piece For now I also feel like something needs to go in the middle Maybe we'll do Some of our gold accents On this one Possibly even on that one because I could see The gold JJ says Erika who has on more shoes You or Jeff It's acrylic It's still an art room Hi Kelly Doesn't mean you can walk around with it So yeah Claire I love the idea of adding gold But I think I'm going to add the gold To do a stencil Could do a stencil Whoever says you're not good at pouring Acrylic needs to watch this video over and over And over and over So here's the thing The person that says that I'm not good at acrylics Is me And I'm only doing good right now because Tammy I thought you guys might like to see Miss Rizzo what's up Oh this one Just Doing the most I like these ones I like these cells that are like Outlined And I like these ones that have A whole bunch of paint in the middle Do you give up boy cap I'm happy to see you Miss Rizzo Tammy says let me know If you fly there and mix more paint Yesterday Alright you guys I don't want to go through any more paint Today because I want to Do The 20 by 60 Splash pour Tomorrow Probably we'll go live on TikTok for that one If Tammy's going to Australia To mix paint for you I'm coming to On Like interactive And laser type Toys for this cat Thank you so so much Gail We will be here Tomorrow at 2pm Central And I hope you guys all come To see Me attempt to not lose My mind Doing a piece This size With This splash technique We'll probably Line up Two of the 20 by 60 canvases So that at least one of them Will get the splash And Who knows maybe it'll look good together And then we can have a dip tick Anyways that'll be at 2pm tomorrow Central time Till then you guys are amazing Love you guys so much For watching me through All the madness And we got some cleaning to do You guys are amazing You're brilliant Thank you so much for watching us We make the mess You guys are amazing be kind of one another Because you never know what someone's going through But we already said I always remember That's not for boycats Go get your mouse Go fetch Anyways Bye


I'm delighted to introduce you to two great speakers, both of them also good friends and long-standing collaborators. It's a real pleasure to see them both here. The first is Bruno Martorano. Bruno is an assistant professor at the University of Maastricht, the Graduate School of Governance and UNU Merit. Before joining Maastricht, Bruno worked at ETH in Zurich and at the Institute of Development Studies in Brighton, where we started our long-standing collaboration and also before at UNICEF in the Sente Center in Florence. Lina is a professor of political geography and conflict at the University of Sussex, where we met. She worked previously before joining Sussex at Trinity College Dublin and at PREO, the Peace Research Institute in Oslo. Lina is the director of the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, the ACLAID project, which is familiar to anyone working on conflict and political violence, and it's been a tremendous public good for everyone in this field and we're very grateful for that, and it's also a large part of the presentation that Bruno will do in just a minute. Welcome to both of you. As usual, the way we've been doing this webinar is Bruno will speak for about 20 minutes, Lina will respond for about 10 minutes, and after that we have time for Q&A. So please keep posting your questions on Q&A, I am monitoring, and I will compile and address them to the speakers and if we have a little bit of spare time at the end, I'll try to unmute some of you maybe and you can ask your questions directly, so let's see how that goes with time. But without further ado, welcome to you both and over to Bruno. Thanks, thanks Patricia, thanks for your introduction and thanks to you and you and your wider for organizing this seminar. Today, I would like to talk about our recent work on basically on the cost of pandemics in terms of social and political stability, in particular in our recent paper, we investigate about the consequences of policy responses to COVID-19, inequality and inequality on protest in the context of USA. But let me to introduce our work. We know that COVID-19 is a global disaster that has taken the world by surprise and many governments and most of the governments were absolutely unprepared to this shock, of course. As reported in the official statistics, the first cases of COVID-19 were recorded in Guang in China in December of 2019, but soon the virus spread to the rest of the world. As the number of cases were increasing across the world, we also could observe that the social discontent started to increase in the population. In particular, we can observe that the number of protests increased over the last year. In particular, the increase of about 30% between January 2020 and January 2021. In the USA, in particular, were recorded many, several protests. In particular, they started in COVID-related protests, started since mid-April 2020 in Michigan, but then they started also to happen in other states such as Utah and many different states, including the less conservative ones such as California and Colorado. So, but why did protests rise when the pandemic was so rampant? So we think that it's not enough just to link the stringency of policies implemented to limit the spread of the virus with the increasing number of protests. But we think our hypothesis in this work is that COVID-19 is espousing existing inequalities. And in particular, the health shock and the policies implemented to reduce, to deal with the virus basically may generate some important economic costs. And most importantly, these economic costs are higher in the most unequal areas. In particular, in these areas, it's possible that the feeling of injustice, feeling of unfairness, basically are increasing and increasing. And what is explained in theory basically is that when these feelings achieve a certain threshold, basically we can observe that individuals and groups start to react, engaging in different forms of political engagement, including civil protest and demonstrations. So against this background, the aim of the objective of our work is to empirically demonstrate the role of existing, pre-existing inequality in explaining the relationship between policy restrictions against COVID-19 and the incidence of protests in Utah. To do that, we build a dataset including the different informations for more than 3,000 USA counties from 50 states and the District of Columbia. And in particular for each county, we had the time and variant information on weekly aggregate data on COVID-related protest events, weekly information on COVID-related policies, and information on the level of Gini index in 2019. Again, the period of analysis is 2020. So but let me do explain a little bit more about our data. All the protest events are recorded by ACLID and the Bridging Divide Initiative under the new project USA Crisis Monitor. In particular, this dataset is very important for us because it reports information about states, actors, locations of protests in the USA and give us the possibility of distinguished COVID-related protests to other types of protests happening in the USA. So basically in this work, we are able in this way to clearly understand the impact of these policy restrictions to protest related to COVID-19. The second important source of information that we are using in our study is related to the COVID-related policies. In particular, these information are from the Oxford COVID-19 government response tracker that reports systematic information on lockdown style measures, and in particular it scores the stringency, the restrictiveness of these measures. In particular, there are 20 indicators and some of these indicators are aggregated in a stringency index that ranges between 1 and 100, with 100 that represent the situation of complete lockdown. So if we start to pull together this information, we can observe some initially interesting results. In particular, the level of the stringency of policy was much higher in the states in the coast, but also we can observe that this area has also observed a higher number of protests. But this is only a small piece to explain the protests recorded in the USA in the recent year, and to understand better about this complex relationship, we need also to understand the role of inequality. In particular, we know that inequality is high in the USA and is much higher than in other developed countries. But if we look at the level of inequality at subnational level, is it possible to observe that inequality ranges between 0.30 and 0.71? So there are huge differences across USA countries. But once again, looking at the map of USA, we can observe that the most unequal areas are in the coast, and in particular in this case, the most unequal counties are in the southeast. So let's move to our empirical strategy. In particular, we discussed it so far about we just pulled the different information, but we want to understand empirically the relationship between the stringency of anti-COVID-19 policies and the protest incidents in areas characterized by different levels of inequality in the USA. In particular, we formalized this model through this equation in which the dependent variable is a dummy variable, assuming the value of 1 if a protest related to COVID-19 happened at the county level in a certain week. And the two variable, independent variable of interest are the stringency index and the interaction of the stringency index with the level of inequality in each USA county. In particular, we are interested policy may translate into variation in protest activities in areas characterized by different levels of inequality. But it's important to highlight that the various equations implies that the effect of the stringency of policy on protest changes in a linear manner with the level of inequality, where we want to ensure the necessary flexibility to our data to our model and to capture this non-linearity. So basically, we replaced the Gini index with the quintiles of inequality. And we interact the levels of policy stringency with quintiles of the Gini index as formalized through this equation. So if we move to the results comparing the two different models, we can observe first of all that we can conclude that the effect of stringency increases, basically increases with the level of inequality. So the level of protest, the probability of protest is higher. But we observe thanks to the results related to the equation number two that the effect of stringency is not significant on areas characterized by low level of inequality, but it started to be significant and positive only in areas in the most unequal areas. So in particular, according to our results, we can show that one, the probability increase, one standard deviation of changing the stringency index lead to an increase of the probability of protest of about six percent. So we know, we are aware that there could be several problems in terms of indigeneity, of course with our analysis. And to reduce this concern, we tried to implement a different strategy. For example, we reduce the concerns in terms of omitted variable bias using counting state fixed effects. We also, to reduce the issue in terms of reverse casualty, we highlight in our work that we are considering the role of pre-existing inequality, which basically refers to the gene index recorded in 2019. The trends in the probability of protest are parallel in areas with different levels of stringency as well as different levels of inequality. So our results is not explained by previous trends in the outcome variable. And also, we finally instrument the stringency index, and in particular using the average number of new COVID cases recorded in neighboring states, or the average level of policies stringency in all the states. And in particular, of course, for reasons of time, I cannot explain the idea behind, but I want to show the results. Let's basically explain once again that our results are robust, and in particular, the coefficient of interest. I'm reporting here the interaction between stringency index and the highest, the areas, the quintile number five. So we cannot observe that the coefficient is almost the same. We've changed it only a little bit, and it's always statistically significant. But we tried also to understand the underlying mechanisms. And in particular, we tried to understand why the stringency of policy against COVID-19 tend to affect the number of protests in the most unequal areas, investigating in particular the role of economic factors. We know that the policy measures, the crisis and the policy measure to contain the COVID-19 have generated the important economic consequences. In particular, in February 2020, unemployment reached its peak since the end of the Second World War, with an average level of about 15%. And importantly, it's necessary to highlight that the most hit groups were the most vulnerable ones, such as the temporary workers and the member of minorities. Also, if we compare small business activities against the big companies, there are some information, some data showing that the most affected ones are, once again, the smaller activities. And in particular, as reported by the Fortune magazine, by September 2020, about 100,000 commercial establishments shut down permanently. So basically, there are some evidence, some data showing the importance of the economic channel. And to understand the role of economic factors in explaining our results, we just replaced it in our main estimation of the dependent variable with a number of economic outcomes, such as the number of small business activities that are happening in the recent days, the revenue of these business activities, consumer expenditure, as well as the level of employment. And when we are replacing these different outcomes, when we are using these different variables, we can observe once again that the impact of the crisis, and in particular the impact of policy responses to COVID-19, is stronger in the most unequal areas. In particular, there are negative consequences in the number of new small business activities in their revenue, in the level of consumption, as well as in the level of unemployment. And in our understanding, this is the reason behind this increasing level of dissatisfaction that is leading this to this increasing level of social and political instability in these areas. So we also tried to include to analyze other social and political factors. In particular, our results showed that protests are more likely to take place in the most unequal areas, where trust in the president and satisfaction with democracy are lower than in other areas, as well as in areas where the levels of social trust and civic engagement is higher. And these results are not surprising because they are aligned with the expectation of the theory. So let me conclude. In particular, our results show that the implementation of policy restrictions to contain the spread of the virus lead to increases in the incidents and in the number of protests in USA counties, but only in areas with the highest levels, regarding the highest levels of inequality. And these results, of course, if we want to link these results into the theory, they validate a longstanding theory of civil unrest that emphasizes the role of inequality motivating deprived groups and individuals to take the street. Also, in this work, we emphasize that these changes are managed by changes in economic conditions in countries with higher disparities. We think also that our work has some interesting policy implications. In particular, once again, this work highlight the issue of inequality, the fact that we must act, we must fight inequality, especially in good time, to avoid that in the time of crisis, such as our time, inequality amplifies the negative consequences of the shock. Moreover, we are at the role of economic channels to explain the rising level of protest. And this would suggest, let's say, the fact that implementing restrictions to the mobility of people, we also should implement new social protection measures to buffer the consequences, the negative consequences of the crisis, and ensuring promoting better living conditions of people affected by, most more affected by the crisis. Finally, I would like to also refer to an important point. In particular, we are observing here the consequences of the crisis and policies in the short term. But we know from a previous crisis that these types of shock could generate long-term consequences, especially on political outcomes, leading to more social and political instability, conflicts between different groups, polarization arising of populism. So, that's all for my presentation. And thanks a lot. Thank you very much, Bruno. Perfect timing. And Kleena, over to you. Great. Thank you. Oh, sorry. One second. Oh, great. I'm not unmuted. I'm just going to share my screen. Firstly, thank you very much. I hope everybody can see that. I would like to definitely just at the moment thank, of course, Patricia for inviting me to this very interesting session and the opportunity to read the paper, which was excellent. I'm going to talk a little bit about Aclad's work on the coronavirus pandemic and also, of course, our new work featured in your paper about the U.S. crisis monitor, which has now become effectively Aclad's U.S. coding as it continues. They both, I want to be specifically clear, they're both being led by Dr. Rudabay Kishi, who's in the audience. So, any specific questions about either of those things should be directed towards Rudabay, but I will hopefully represent her well in these discussions. They're both excellent projects. We're very proud of both of them. They came during a very busy year while we were expanding globally and then, of course, taking a much deeper investigation into the U.S. And in fact, that came at a fortuitous time. It wasn't planned to coincide with a time when the U.S. had more demonstrations than the top other two countries combined, which I believe is India and Pakistan. It was really quite shocking, the amount of social movement and, of course, how it's morphing even now into new subject matter as the people who've organized locally now want to keep it and keep it going because it has had such important implications. So, I will go through some of these reports that have recently come out. This is a national emergency, how COVID-19 is fueling unrest in the U.S. It seems appropriate. Give them the subject matter today. That came out in March. There's also this work here, excuse me. There's also this work here, which is our annual report, which is able to note exactly the ways in which conflict had shifted from 2019 through 2020. Less definite as people might think in part because coronavirus, while incredibly important around the world, has had very different effects. And in some cases, like here in Ethiopia where I am, it has not been a feature in any of the conflicts that have increased in the last six months to a year, despite it being now a growing threat in some of the more urban areas. So, I think we sometimes risk overstating the impact of coronavirus on existing social movements and existing conflicts where they are occurring because they are, in fact, having such a huge effect on our day-to-day lives in often Western places. And then this report, which might be especially important if people are interested in the effects of coronavirus, it's called a year of COVID. Sorry, everybody. This happens here. Let me make sure that I'm still sharing my screen and that everybody can still hear me when I was getting back on there. Can everybody still hear sorry about that? That really does happen all the time. That will happen again. I'm just going to say it now. I'm going to apologize, blanket apology for all the times it's going to happen between now and 10 minutes from now. But this came out this month from April 2020 and it focuses on the impact of the global conflict and demonstration trends. And I just want to mention a few of those things now because I think they're relevant to what we're talking about. So, despite the pandemic, of course, demonstrations increased worldwide last year, which is in some ways a surprising conclusion for many people. There was an initial drop at the start of the health crisis with food discussed and overall demonstration activity rose 7% last year. And that is very much in keeping with the same sourcing guidelines. And all countries covered by Aklad, there has been effectively 93% of all demonstrations have been peaceful with 7% met by some form of intervention. And that's been an especially important indication in the U.S. In fact, as we found 93% of the social justice protests were peaceful. And that came at a time when demonstration was incredibly politicized within the states. And I think it's very important to think about the ways in which, as Bruno has mentioned, kind of grievance, geography, and new crises have coalesced in the U.S. in a very unique way that has led us to be able to look very clearly at the economic ramifications of a new crisis hitting an already, I would say, disturbed political environment and how they're building on each other. But demonstrations were less deadly overall in 2020. So whereby they are certainly being, let's say, encouraged by some of the motivations of the pandemic, we're not seeing a particularly solid trend in one way outside of the U.S. which you demonstrated here. There's been a 38% decline in the number of fatalities associated with demonstrations in particularly in the Middle East. And that's driven by a decrease in the lethality in Iran and Iraq. Because Aklad's coverage of the U.S. does not extend to 2019, although, of course, as noted in the paper's graphs, I think that we have no reason to think that 2019 was anywhere near as active as 2020. The United States, as I mentioned, and this is quite important, it did register the highest number of demonstrations in the world in 2020. And nearly as many as demonstrations as I mentioned, India and Pakistan combined, which is very important in part because India has often been heralded as a really good crucible of social movement studies and especially rioting studies because of the sheer number of protests and riots that occur therein. And for that to switch to the U.S., a very different context where we really should shift our mindset about what exactly is fueling social movements that are incredibly localized is, I think, an excellent opportunity for researchers. So I'm very excited to see this work and work like it coming out. But I did want to mention very clearly that the demonstrations that we've seen increase and perpetuate throughout the crisis have really engaged with governance rather than just been a reaction to governance. And in particular, you know, governments as they implemented lockdowns and movement restrictions, protests resurged very much in reaction to that. And initially, this resurgence took the form of direct responses to government mismanagement, which was a huge issue, and continues to be an issue in places like Brazil. And then they evolved into a continuation of the social movements that had occurred pre-pandemic. So in some ways, what we might be seeing in the U.S. is there had been almost missing protests around some of the issues that were affecting people locally. And once they became organized over issues surrounding coronavirus, we saw that they in fact became much more active in other ways. And I would say that, and this is something, again, that would have been mentioned recently that where pandemic protests were very active, of course, throughout the year, but social justice much more so than pro and anti-Trump election protests simultaneously, we're now seeing the stop the steal protests really kind of continue into gun control protests, where likely to continue. And then of course, reopening protests. So and those things are moving around more than we would think. In fact, one of the things I would like to just demonstrate here is a map of the protests in the U.S., which really are quite widespread. And this is, of course, just a short indication of February 8th, 2020, 10th and 19th of February. But one of the things that I wanted to mention is this particular study that I'm showing you now, notes that trends in pandemic-related demonstrations are closely correlated with COVID-19 cases, as we noted, with spikes in unrest matching infection ways reported throughout 2020. And the data that we collected show that the majority of these demonstrations have been organized around key drivers and the risks being felt or experienced by health workers, the safety of prisoners and ICE detainees, anti-restriction mobilization, which we've discussed here, the eviction crisis and school closures. And I would say that two of those, more so than all five, are associated with concerns about economic inequality. And further, there was a report today that found that women believe that their income is likely to have been severely affected as a whole because of the crisis in the U.S. I think they believe that there's been a potential 25% in decredition protest data where women as a group would coalesce to protest that. And I think that there's some limitations in thinking about how groups were doing advocacy protests rather than just grievance-related protests at the same time, whereas, as I mentioned before, several crises co-occurred within the U.S., especially around the election and social movements, which will complicate how we understand even a coronavirus protest, which of course, as Bruno mentioned, is tied to such in the data. So like I said, overwhelmingly, I'm incredibly supportive of work that takes the U.S. as a hot bed of political demonstrations and violence much more seriously than it has been in the past and then tries to apply what we know about unrest to a much more developed context to see if these results hold up. And I think what we find is that as we see in developing states, or in states like Ethiopia here, there's quite a mix of motivations and, in fact, often down to the extremely localized level. And I will stop there. Thank you very much for the opportunity to participate. Like I said, these reports are available on the Aklad website under both the U.S. Crisis Monitor and the Coronavirus Conflict Tracker. Thanks. Thank you very much, Kleena. Pleasure, as usual. I have quite a few questions on Q&A, and because we are on time, you both have been perfect. I'm going to allow people to talk and also mention that, like Kleena mentioned, Rudebe Kishi, who was leading on the U.S. protest study, is on the audience. So, Rudebe, if you want to add anything, just drop me a note, and I'll unmute you. Let me start. So, we have now, we have four questions that still start us off, and I will unmute all of you. So, we have Tillman Honing, Romar Geha, Liable Cells, and Adi Day. And Tillman, I will please ask you a question. Yeah, perfect. Thanks. Can you hear me? Yeah. Yeah, thank you. Thanks for this interesting talk. So, I was wondering in one, in basically, I have a question regarding your main specification. So, you have state weak fixed effects, if I understand this correctly, and then you are identifying the basically the relative effects of increasing inequality on the relationship between stringency and protest probability. And I'm wondering how you can calculate absolute effects here. So, essentially, I think this parameter is called V to 1. I'm wondering how you can identify this. How can you identify the relationship between just stringency and probability of protest if you have all the state weak effects here? Isn't that varying at the stringency? Is that varying at the state weak level as well? I will not really answer that, but I think it is. Yes. Romar Geha, I will please ask a question as well. I'll connect for and then pass on to Bruno and Bruno. Romar? Hello, can you hear me? Yeah. Well, thank you, Professor Clonat, Professor Bruno. I'm curious about the, indeed, the variables that you were using in your research. And my question is very simple. Can we consider that the political rebellion acts during 2020 were due to the stress generated by the pandemic, or instead they were due to the displeasure of the U.S. citizens who are the political leaders by some policy facts that affect them, the, I don't know, the Black Lives Matter movement, the struggles between these different social groups, and, well, is there a way to completely control for the effects of one detainment or the other? Can we identify which acts, because we are indeed counting acts of rebellion, can we identify which one is related to which cause? Thank you very much. And we have a question also from Laya Balcells. Laya, I think I, yeah. Can you hear me? Yeah. No, my question is very simple. I was wondering about the revasins of the results with you using other measures for maybe poverty, or like, because, I mean, I just wonder if like inequality at the county level is really capturing this kind of like deprivation that you're trying to get at, right? Because like there you could have like a place where there's just not a lot of inequality at the county level, because it's a very poor country, or it's a very rich country, right? So I was wondering about that. Thanks, Laya. And Aditi? Hi. Yeah, I think my question's already been resated by Romar. I was mostly wondering about like, how do you record data for different types of protests like or protests that are directly a relation from like COVID lockdown and regulation versus protests about social justice movement, which I've been building up for years and years. So even within the US, how do you distinguish between them where you're putting them in the model? Thank you. Thank you very much. Yeah, that's an important question we both asked. I'll pass on to Bruno and then to Kleena to add. And please keep adding questions to the Q&A button, not the chat button, the Q&A, and I'll, and hopefully we'll still have time for another round. Bruno? Okay, first of all, I'm sorry, I had the connection problems. And I lost some questions. So I apologize if I'm not replying to everything, but I will try to reply. So the first question on my understanding is, which was the model specification? We are using county fixed effects and state per week fixed effects. So this basically will ensure the possibility that we are taking in consideration all the structural conditions of each county to reduce the issue of omitted variable bias. Then I lost the second part of the question, sorry. So maybe if you want to ask, yes, Patricia. Still many if you're there, can you add or I can? Yeah, so basically I understand that you can identify all the relative effects. So you can basically say that, you know, with inequality increasing the effect of stringency on the probability of protest gets larger. And I think that's the kind of main statement of the paper. But you're also, if I remember correctly, you made some kind of absolute statement, he said, if you increase stringency by, I think a standard deviation, then the probability of protest increases by what I don't remember the exact number. And I'm wondering how you can identify these absolute effects. Because if I understand your specification correctly, you have country state week, sorry, state by week fixed effects in there and stringency only varies at the state week level, is that right? Perhaps I'm messing up one of the variations. So all of this will be washed out by the fixed effect. No, you're correct, because we are taking this number from the interaction of the stringency with the inequality defined at county level. So this is the results coming from our analysis that show that once that deviation of change in the stringency index in the most unequal areas would lead to an increase in the probability of protest. Right. Yeah, that makes sense. I think then I'm missing this from the next segment. Thanks. Thank you very much. I think the second question was also related to the last one. So I will try to reply to the last questions. We basically with our work try to specifically identify the COVID related protest events. And this is possible thanks to the data because I reported the actors motivations behind the protests and so on. So in our paper, we clearly identified the protests related to COVID and we use three or four different words for identifying them such as virus, pandemic restrictions, lockdown, and also distinguish these types of protests from other types of protests such as those related to Black Lives Matter movements or protests against Trump, protests against referred to the presidential elections. And the following up also on the point of Cleo, I think we tried to do a nice exercise in our paper because we replied basically the main dependent variables. So the protest related to COVID with the other types of protest and the results are completely different. So we basically showing the paper that the stringency tended to reduce the probability of these different types of protests. So our main conclusion in this exercise is that the stringency of policy related to COVID tend to increase the probability of protests related to COVID in the most unequal area. And then again, I think the point of Lila, if we tried to look about different economic factors to replace inequality with maybe poverty. No, we didn't do that so far. I think this could be a nice exercise. The main point about inequality is that I think it's especially in developing the economies inequality matters because basically also the way which poverty is measured is more in terms in relative terms in terms of changes in comparison to median income and so on. So we focused on inequality because it's one of the big issues in our society and in the USA society. But we will, for sure, take in consideration this very nice suggestion we could use on support attacks. Yeah, thanks very much. Cleo, would you like to add or Rudabe? Thanks very much. I'd be happy to. And Rudabe, in fact, would be the expert on this. But there was a very rigorous system set up to distinguish the tenor and the characteristics of each of the protests. And in fact, as Bruno has alluded to, in the notes category of every single event of which there are several, several thousand, we note whether or not the protest was directly related to one of these main characteristics that defined U.S. protests in the 2020 period. Social justice being an entirely separate category to the coronavirus related work or coronavirus related episodes, the stop the steel episodes, the pro and anti-Trump episodes, the precursor to the election episodes. It's not too difficult to distinguish what a protest is about when you have an incredibly information-rich environment to support it. It gets much more difficult when you're using one source and it's about something that happened in, you know, a remote area of southern Iran. It becomes much more easier when it's happening in Tallahassee and it's reported about 50 times and you can confirm all sorts of details. But again, Rudabe would be the perfect person to address this. And there are several different methodology, exhaustive methodology documents about the U.S. project that I would encourage anybody to read if they have any questions about how that was done. Right. Rudabe, we're probably putting you on the spot, but if you'd like to come in, I can use it. No, it's okay. Thanks for including me and thanks for, I think you did justice to all the work we've been doing, Kleena. That was a great presentation by both panelists. So in terms of the point of protests or the drivers, I guess, as Kleena says, I mean, in some context where, you know, the media environment is so robust, like in the U.S., it can be somewhat simpler to deduce those things as opposed to, you know, like the example of rural Iran. I mean, it can sometimes all we have from a source, especially given, you know, relies so heavily on secondary sources, it can be difficult to know what drivers were. That said, it's an entire new can of worms to try to understand what exactly drivers or protests are, especially given that individuals can be motivated by a variety of factors to show up and take to the streets. In some of the work in those reports, I mean, some kind of, some types of protests can fall, of course, within different groupings, right? Someone that is against coronavirus restrictions might be against a mask mandate, but they also might be against school closures. And so the school closures one might also fall under the categorization around schools. And so we did try to go through and categorize these different protests, you know, they're not mutually exclusive, and they can be part of different ones to understand the trends that drive each of those separate drivers. I think part of this is why, you know, I still hasn't formally introduced a protest driver variable or category, given the difficulties in introducing those things. I mean, I think even grappling with something like, I don't know what BLM protests, is that about minority rights? Is that about state brutality? Is that about something else? I mean, we can kind of divvy up these things in a variety of ways. So those are actually some of the things we're currently grappling with at Accoled as we work on a pilot around protest motivation. So I think these are really important questions that I promise you, we are weighing up and down on sideways these days. As we take on that work. Thank you very much. And I couldn't agree more. I mean, the work on motivational protests is, there's quite a bit out there, but it's been very difficult to theorize and also spot patterns across different contexts. And clean, I mentioned before, about how a lot of us working on protests have been focusing on, you know, areas where there's been lots of them, like India, for instance, or even the early history in the US and in Latin America. But there's still a lot to be done here. I'll take advantage of my chair position to ask a cleaner question along those lines. You did mention before that the US is bringing out or what we are observing currently in the US is bringing out new empirical patterns that could be quite useful for theorizing further about protest motivation and the origins of social movements. And I was wondering if you could tell us a bit more about that. And I have also a question here from Ricardo, Ricardo Santos. I will unmute you now, Ricardo. Hello. Thank you. Thank you, Patricia. Thank you, Bruno and Quina for a very, very interesting presentation. Bruno, I was wondering about so if there would be a space to explore wondering about the nature of inequality and specifically if it would be possible to assess whether within group inequality and between group inequalities have different rules. I was kind of thinking instead of using Cheney, using a decomposable index that could allow us to do that and then check whether that would be interesting. Over. Thank you. And I'll pass on then to Bruno and then Quina. We just have a few minutes left. So, Bruno. Yeah, thanks Ricardo. It's a very interesting point. We didn't check about group inequalities and I think this is, we just focused on economic inequality, just on vertical inequality, but I think this could be another way of understanding the role of inequality and explaining the relationship between the implementation of these policies and the increasing number of protests. Thanks a lot for this suggestion. I'm happy. Great. So with regard to new work on the US, I think that there's a lot of space to discuss the effects of populism and the shape it takes within different contexts. So recently we wrote a paper talking about how much of the conflict in the Sahel is in many ways using a pastoralist populism to generate quite a lot of social support for the different jihadist groups there. And I think that populism is something that can be eminently flexible to different political contexts. And we're seeing of course that take a hold in the States. Although after the January 6th insurrection, I think that people are a little bit less likely to be as open about it as they had previously been about specifically militia behavior and how that's encouraging people to go from demonstrations towards more organized forms of engagement. But we are taking a close look at it. We've just released, I think yesterday, a discussion about the Proud Boys and their structure and organization and all the rest of it and how that might affect future violence within the US context. But Ruta Bay again is spearheading those US-based efforts so that she would like to yet again, in fact, probably a better person for this panel than me. I doubt better. But some of the US work that we're taking on now, we've been really interested in understanding how different brands or mantles can be used by a lot of these groups. I mean, we look at the right in quotes so often in the US context, but it's important to remember that they're not a monolith. And we've seen organization early last year, for example, around anti-coronavirus restrictions and mass mandates and the like. Then we saw organization by many of these right-wing groups that were engaged in those types of things after having built new networks and coalitions, engaging in WLN protests in the fall. We saw this kind of mutate more towards the stop of steel movement and much more direct involvement by these types of groups and militias in demonstrations. And since then, I mean, like the insurrection that Clena mentioned, I mean, we did see a lot of these named groups laying low for a while, but they have started to come back out of the woodwork now. And we're seeing many of these groups engaging again around whether it's COVID restrictions, but also around other mantles, whether it's anti-vaccine movements, whether it's around the Second Amendment in the US. And we're seeing different kind of brands being taken by these groups and co-opted and used to help them in networking, used to help them in attracting new entities to join these types of and these broader kind of mantles allow for a variety of different types of entities. And so as a result, we've been seeing a really serious proliferation of these types of militia groups and non-state actors in the US. And so we expect to continue seeing this and we expect to see, especially as we're beginning to see some movement around Second Amendment kind of conversations in the US, especially as we're starting to unfortunately see more of these mass shootings, especially as COVID restrictions begin to be lifted, that will be much more part of the conversation. And it is very likely that we'll again see organization around those types of branding by these types of groups. So I think it's really important to understand these militia groups, which are quite proliferate, like a lot of other contexts. I mean, I think, Kalyna, the point she made about this American exceptionalism and how it's important to kind of look at the US alongside all the others is really a point we try to underline, which is why the end of the US crisis law under work, the US data collection is now part of Aklah's, you know, quote unquote, regular data coverage. And so now the US is yet another country that we cover at Aklah. And I just wanted to mention here that what we're looking for as being a particularly dangerous context is where the grievance of these populations, which are manifold, as we've just heard, become aligned with elite grievances about accessing power. That's when they are at their most difficult when they both have representation in formal roles, and they have a support group that they can come back on. And I think that January 6th is a very classic interpretation of how you have elite representation in the former president, and then you had groups believing that they were effectively there to do his bidding. And that became that became a much bigger issue and a much more violent context than it would normally have done. Yeah. Well, thank you very much. Sadly, we're coming to the end of our time here. But I think what just bringing all this together, what this is showing us is yet again, although we're probably living through, we're definitely living through a new pandemic, we don't have a lot of experience dealing with these issues, but it's yet again a massive shock which is magnifying problems that were happening already before we had the rise of inequalities, we had a variety of cultural backlash type discourses, we had a series of losers in witness from process of globalization and so forth. We have issues around gender and minority discrimination and those are being amplified. And what we're seeing here is they amplify to the extent they actually result resulting in some cases in quite forms of political violence. And also, I think one of the things that this shows especially from cleaners and really best like this intervention is the distinction between developed countries and developing countries and how these movements and these various groups form is becoming quite narrow. So we're talking about, I'm just talking about militia groups in the Sahel militia groups in the US and I presume the formation of these groups are not so different and the structural mechanisms explaining why these groups become salient at certain times and are used by political elites in a variety of ways is happening all over the world and not just in certain parts. So this was one of the motivations why we actually thought it was very interesting to take a leap forward and look at the US. Also really great to hear that Acclade will continue collecting data in the US, a bit disappointed when I thought that it was just a one-year project but that's really great to hear because obviously these things are going to be really important. Also like Bruno mentioned, we're only observing very immediate effects, right? So I think we need to come back in sort of three, four, five years down the road and see what implications of these different changes will have for political systems more broadly. I mean, in terms of this will have implications in terms of discussing things around the survival of democracy and whether some of these protests translate into higher levels of violence in different parts of the world and so forth. So I hope I'll be able to invite you all in five years time to reflect on this again. In the meantime, thank you very much, Klinna from Addis and Bruno from Maastricht and Rodebev for the last moment of intervention in Prompto. Thank you very much to all and thank you for everyone that for all your questions and for staying with us until now. Take care and see you and see you again. Thanks for your attention. Bye. Thanks. Bye-bye.


Daddy, you're going to teach me how to play the piano. I'm going to teach you how to play the piano. Come to the sister's cooking room, and she will certainly do something for you, girl. In which class do you study now? Class 10, who will appear for HSE next year. How old are you? Are you 18? No, sister. I am only 15. In that case, you have nothing to worry or be upset over. Sister, the fact is, Pia's father has many children, so he thinks if he gets Pia married off, he would get rid of some burden. Pia, do you know how to do any particular work? No, sister. I can only rare some poultry birds at home. But sister, please build a poultry farm for her. I am raring poultry already. Two of my hands are laying eggs, and another has hatched her chickens. Raring some poultry farm at home and establishing a poultry farm is not the same thing. You will need to buy 100 chicks and sell those off after raring them into adult chickens. The profit you can get from doing that will be enough to make up for your educational costs, your livelihood costs, and the required money to run a family. Oh God, I will need to have a lot of money to establish a poultry farm. Where will I get that amount of money? You will get that money from Angio as a loan. You can become a member of our Skills Training Center today. Can you give Taka 10 per week as a savings? Yes, sister, I can. I will pay the amount after selling off my chicken eggs. Please coach me on how to establish a poultry farm. There are two types of poultry birds that are reared on a commercial basis. They are broiler chickens and lair chickens. Materials required for starting poultry raring. Materials or things that we need permanently to establish a poultry farm are a poultry farm house measuring 20 feet in length, 10 feet in breadth, and 7 to 8 feet in height. Apart from that, we need some large and small check trays, or feeder pots, large and small water pots, baskets, spade, and wear made net, etc. We would also need some other things regularly such as paddy husk, rope, wood dust, 100 watt electric bulbs, polythene, electric wires, and hand gloves. These materials are available at bazaars and makeshift bazaars at district and sub-district towns. Tentative expenditure of building a poultry farm house is 10,000 Taka and together all the fixed and current or variable materials would cost 8,200 Taka approximately. The living place of the poultry should be comfortable. The deck or the floor of the farm house should be leveled properly and have to be at least one and a half to two feet high from the ground. The hut can be erected using bamboo, wooden plank, and earth or bricks to construct the structure. But it is better if you build a hut with bamboo oven, thick mat. In doing so, your costs to erect the hut will be lower. Be careful in building the farm house so that it gets enough sunlight and airflow. The hut should be seven and a half to eight feet in height. The farm house should also have water drainage facility around it. After you have completed erecting the farm house structure, cover it with one and a half to three feet height thick wire net. You have to apply poison around the farm house to protect the chicks, chickens from the attack of rodents. In a space of 200 square feet, 150 to 170 chickens can be reared easily. You have to prepare litter using paddy husk on the floor for the first 10 to 15 days. After 15 days, you can use wood dust also to prepare the floor instead of using paddy husk. This method is called the litter method. By doing this, the poultry excreta would not stick to the floor. After the first week, you have to scratch the litter prepared by paddy husk every day. If the litter gets heavily wet by the poultry excreta, you have to spread 2 kg limes on it and can turn the litter upside down. You have to turn the litter upside down twice or thrice in a week with the help of a speed or shovel. If a part of the litter starts stinking or gets hard after being clogged by poultry excreta, you have to throw that portion out. You have to mix new litter with the old one. If a portion of that is at all usable, if not, you have to lay a new litter. After every 6 to 7 months, you have to lay a new litter. You can, however, use the old litter as an organic fertilizer. After you have erected the farmhouse, you have to collect one day old broiler or layer chicks from the farms or hatcheries located at the district or sub-district towns and have to release them in your newly built farmhouse. You can purchase a chick at a price of 40 to 50 per chick. You have to brood the one day old chicks for 3 to 4 weeks after bringing them in from the hatchery. Rearing chicks, keeping them in a controlled temperature environment and providing them food and water is called brooding. Hang 200 watt electric bulbs from the ceiling of the farmhouse to brood 100 chicks. Hang them at a height of 1 foot or 1.5 feet from the floor with the help of a hood. Erect railings to make sure that the chicks cannot go beyond the controlled temperature zone. Keep the food trays and water pots at different places in the hut. Usage of light in chick rearing is very important. Consult the chart below to learn how much time you have to keep a chick in light. You have to cover all sides of the farmhouse with guinea-maid curtains to save faulty birds and chicks or cold weather during the rainy or winter seasons. And you also have to make arrangements so that air can pass through the farmhouse adequately during summer or humid seasons. A poultry chick does not require food up to 36 hours of its birth. So, you should only give them fresh water to drink for the first two days. Always keep clean water in water pots for the chicks. For starters, you can give them types of crushed food by spreading 3 to 4 tinfoils or mats on the floor separately inside the hut. After the chicks are 5 to 6 days old, replace the tinfoils or mats from the floor and give them food in small chick trays. Accordingly, give them fresh water to drink in small water pots. 5 chick trays and 5 water pots would do to feed and hydrate 100 chicks. When they are 1 to 45 days old, you have to feed these poultry birds daily and weekly as mentioned in the list. Amount of feed can differ depending on the species of poultry birds or the environment they live in. It would not be a problem if you give more feeds to the boiler chickens than their actual need. As a result, they grow quickly because of the increased intake of food. You should not give the poultry birds stale, rotten or fungal food. There are three kinds of poultry feed that are available in the market in the name and style of starter, grower and finisher. You have to keep your chicks under right temperature as per their age and have to feed them and provide them water regularly. Diseases of poultry birds while they are at the firm house and their remedies.  So, you have to be very careful. If you notice that any of your poultry is affected by such diseases, you should call on a veterinary to your farm immediately. After assessing symptoms, diagnosing the disease, the veterinary doctor can then treat the birds with medicines or vaccines as required. Regular and proper vaccination of your poultry birds is vital. All the instructions are written on the label of the bottles of the vaccines. But you have to consult a veterinary doctor before vaccinating your poultry birds. You have to verify the vaccines and their usage after consultation with the representatives of the medicine-selling companies and local veterinary doctors. Keep the affected birds separately and do not vaccinate them. You have to vaccinate the birds early in the morning or in the evening. You have to complete the vaccination process within an hour. You have to bury off the empty or unutilized vaccine bottles underground.  You must not enter the firm house wearing your shoes. You have to enter into the poultry firm house after washing your hands and legs, tying your hair and after changing your clothes. Remember to wash your hands, legs and face again after getting out from the firm house. Wash all the materials used in your farming such as food trays and water pots, walnuts of the house and other materials regularly by using phenyl mixed water and dry them off in the sunlight. You have to change the litter after getting all the poultry buds out of it within 50 days. If the condition of the old litter is okay to be reused, then mix lime with it and dry it in the sun. The firm house should be vacant at least for 10 to 15 days. Laire poultry farm The farm in which poultry birds are reared to produce eggs are called laire poultry farm. Laire poultry's begin laying eggs when they are 20 weeks or 5 months old. This poultry bird lay eggs for a year or more at a stretch. You have to collect the chicks from the farms and you have to brood the chicks for 28 to 35 days. The laire poultry birds pick one another, so you have to trim their bills between the age of 7 to 8 days. You have to use a sharp knife, blade or a special plier to trim their beaks. You have to follow the same guidelines to find remedies when your laire birds get sick. If needed, laire poultry birds have to be given anti-worm medicines. Feed a laire poultry chick after 45 days as accordingly a broiler chick is fed. After that, you can increase the amount of feed. When the lairs begin to lay eggs, you have to give them feed as per the list. Mix crushed oyster with the principal poultry feed and give the lairs to eat those. You must not give more food to the laire poultry birds than mentioned in the chart. If you do so, then the amount and size of their laid down eggs get smaller. It would be better if you divide the food amount mentioned below in three equal parts and feed them three times a day. Among the first 100 lairs, 85 of them in average lay an egg daily. When the lairs get 18 months old, they do not lay eggs to the extent delayed earlier. So, you have to sell off those lairs which are over 18 months old and then bring in new lairs in your farm. It is very important to use light to produce poultry eggs. So, you need to know in details about how much time they should be kept under the light according to their age. Eggs remain in good condition for 3 to 4 days in summer and 7 to 10 days in winter naturally. You should not wash the eggs in water. If it is littered, the eggs can rot quickly if you wash the eggs in water. So, you have to wipe the littered eggs with a thick cloth or with a brush. Poultry birds and eggs can be sold at local bazaars. Apart from that, local trainers also buy poultry birds and eggs directly from the farms at a wholesale price. You can earn a profit of Taka 9,720 in just two months after spending Taka 21,720 to establish a poultry farm of 100 broiler poultry birds and rearing them. Now, we would see how this profit can be generated. A profit of 9,720 Taka can be generated from a broiler poultry farm. It is possible to earn a profit of 171,680 after the sales of both poultry birds and eggs in one year 6 months after investing Taka 100,000 and 820 at different phases of establishing and running a layer poultry farm of 100 poultry birds. However, you can meet up the rest of the cost with the money that you will earn just after spending 25,000 to 30,000 Taka in cash at the outset of the establishment of the farm up to 6 months of its operation. Now, you would see how this amount of profit can be generated. Income and expenditure accounts of rearing 100 layer poultry birds. Sister, you always make mistakes when you calculate profit. And how exactly did I do that? You only calculated the monetary benefits. You know, Sister Pia scored GPA 5 in the SSC exam hell this year incurring all related cost of her education and livelihoods including helping her father to maintain his family through the income of harpoon reform. Who shall calculate the benefits of all those yields? I can't stop my tears today, sister. My tears of happiness. Had it been for you and your help? Aww, now isn't the time for crying, sweetheart. Today is your day of triumph and delight. Laugh, live happily and we will all join in to share your happiness and toast to your success. Well, give me the money. I would like to make the advance payment right away for the floral reads and sweets. Shadamiam, I have decided to own her on behalf of her skills training center for all her success and I want you to manage the event. If you can rare poultry, your life would be happy. You would get a hefty profit and there would be no poverty.


What's up everybody jason from jazby's case breaks calm 2020 pinini gold standard football four box break Picker teams number four just sold out and we sold it out straight up guys. No R&B needed straight up And I believe Sean. Sorry man. Should we get in the last Bob Mojo? Sean actually got Come on pen last Bob Mojo Dolphins And I want to say it was Bangles, right? Hand writer in last Bob Mojo for you Here's the case for it guys. All right. We have three breaks for it.  We got a little Jabbar and Zuniga New York Jets going to Patrick and nice little patch auto 15 out of 49 Kishon Vaughn Tampa Bay Bucks going to Eric next Miles Sanders One off the jersey never nick man We got Cole McDonald for the Titans Got gold rush 156 out of 199 Damian Williams Chiefs going to Oliver Jerry Judy patch and a patch for Henry rugs 22 out of 49 Let me randomize between the Raiders Barry and Nick Broncos Morn Anderson autograph and we're getting kickers in this box 99 out of 99 Saints going to Jimmy Trayvon digs 16 out of 25 Dallas Cowboys It's going to Leonard and a very nice three-colored jumbo patch 16 out of 49 Devon du Varnay That's gonna go to the Ravens and Eric. All right next one Antonia Gandy golden two out of 25 Washington football team We got Jordan Brooks to 99 Little five-way relic 102 out of 199 motherload Josh Allen Bill's going to guy Jarrell with a little white gold Kyler Murray Max Crosby gold strike that's 90 out of 99 Raiders We got Brandon Ayuk for the 49ers Justin Jefferson seven out of 99 Minnesota Vikings going to Matt All right now in the last box nice I think that's where the auto's at Jerry Judy 17 out of 25 George kill Ricky Williams Miami Dolphins going to Sean We got Randy Moss hollow gold Devon McCordy good as gold 26 out of 99 Patriots going to Karen Steele Xavier McKinney for the Giants And Jacob Easton 63 out of 99 for the Colts and Barry Roberts All right, there you go guys that was a break. We got one randomizer to do here between the Raiders and Broncos. Good luck guys Let's go I know necklace, but I appreciate it man. Hey, it was meant to be a guess I really only collect my center. So I got a mouse centers of base Our Raiders Broncos roll the dice two and a five seven times. Good luck one two three four five six seven seven Wow stuck with the Raiders for like at least five of the seven rolls There you go Raiders So there you go guys that was the break Appreciate it guys the next uh four boxes are in the store number five