This is Covering the Spread. Here are your hosts, Jim Sonnis and Dr. Ed Fang. What is going on everybody? Welcome on in to Covering the Spread. That's right here on the FanDual Podcast Network and NumberFire.com where today we're talking NHL with Rob Pozzola getting his thoughts on how he built his NHL model and his read on the current futures market. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire.com. Joined here as always by Dr. Ed Fang. You can find his work over at thepowerrank.com. Now we're doing two shows today. We're going to talk about March Madness and the Men's Basketball Tournament in the second show with Drew Martin. So we'll get to that then. But Ed, you're vaccinated. What's going on? Yeah, I got my first shot yesterday. I live here in Ann Arbor, Michigan and not too far away in Toledo, Ohio. They are allowing people 40 and up to get their shot. So me and appointment drove down and still feeling pretty good today. So we'll see how long that lasts. Absolutely. If I don't make it to the second podcast today, you'll know why. Right. Exactly. If I don't make it, it's for other reasons. It's been a... I'm trying to recover from the Northwestern women's loss last night. So trying to steadily pick myself back up. So different reasons we may not have the endurance for a full two podcast for today. But I'm glad to hear you're doing well. I think that's been pretty universal, especially after the first shot. So it's important to get our vaccines in there so we can get back to, you know... I was thinking about going to a baseball game and the idea of...  I don't know if we talked about this before, but...  I think it's like a huge burden for me as like a daily fantasy player and like a better because it's so tough on my phone and all that. But I actually kind of want to go to games again. And that was a weird feeling for me to encounter. Yeah. Yeah, for sure. I mean, I think we all kind of want to get back to normal and we all need to live with this economy. And that's the main reason that I went down there as soon as I possibly could. And I obviously know it's not available to everyone yet. Right. But it will be soon. Things are, especially in the United States, things are happening pretty quickly here. So yeah, it was a big moment, you know, and it's kind of a crazy experience. Like, you know, they had a pretty well run. You go into this huge rec center. There's like dozens of tables set up. Right. And then you have you have to wait about 15 minutes so you don't like have a severe allergic reaction to the vaccine. And then they let you go. Yeah, I was thinking about this like two weeks ago. But like if you had told me a year ago that we were still going through this, I would have just been so sad. But if you had told me in December that we'd be to the point where vaccines are opening up to almost everyone. Like I have my appointment a week from today. Like if you had told me that in December, I'd have been blown away and I've been smiling ear to ear. So yeah, things getting better. That is for sure. And they're about to get even better. So we're going to talk to Rob Pazzola. You can find him on Twitter at Rob Pazzola. He is the host of a brand new podcast called the circles off podcast. We'll talk to him about that. We're also going to talk to Rob about building out his NHL model, what goes into it, why he goes to the player level model and then use that to see if there is value in the futures market across the NHL right now. As mentioned that we do have a second podcast coming up later today. If you listen to this on Friday, that podcast already posted breaking down the sweet 16 of the men's college basketball tournament with Drew Martin getting his thoughts on whether he sees value in the individual gains, but also the futures market there. So find that by searching for covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts and while you're there, make sure you leave us a rating and review as well. We'll talk to Rob here in just one second. But first, the sweet 16 matchups are set in Fandall and Amazon original movies are teaming up to give you more ways to win during March Madness. Enter the survive in advance contest presented by Amazon Prime videos without remorse and compete for your chance at the main prize pool. The contest is simple. Just select four of the 16 teams remaining in the tournament and earn points for every win. Those teams earned from the sweet 16 to the national championship game. The best part, the contest is totally free to enter. Game day will be here before you know it. So head to Fandall.com or download the Fandall fantasy app and enter the survive in advance contest presented by Amazon Prime videos without remorse today. And check out without remorse starring Michael B. Jordan on Amazon Prime video April 30th. Eligibility restrictions apply. Let's bring on Rob Pazzola now. Find him on Twitter at Rob Pazzola. Check out the circles off podcast. A link to that is in our show notes over on numberfire.com and get Rob's thoughts on how to build an NHL model in his read on the futures market covering the present. Let's welcome Rob Pazzola back into covering the spread to talk a little hockey Rob. It's been a benefit since we had you on the podcast. How you doing today? I'm doing well. I mean, I'm surviving the COVID landscape right now, but the weather is getting better. More sports around the corner with baseball starting. So good time to be a sports fan, but things are going well. Yeah, the better weather is nice. More things we can do outside, especially you in Toronto, me and Syracuse like it's been. It was pretty rough there for the past six months, but things finally feeling less constrictive, which is good.  So we're talking to you today about NFL model or NHL modeling, how you considered incorporating Tortellini into the NHL model going forward. I have not, but I mean, based on some of the runs I've had so far this year, it might not be a bad idea. I mean, I know he's just coin flipping and whatever, but it was pretty amazing to watch him come out on top over the course of one week. So that was, that was pretty fun to do. I enjoyed it quite a bit and it kind of blew up. So yeah, I mean, really, really good stuff. Does Tortellini have a Patreon yet? He does not. He has a Twitter account now at at Torts the Tort. We had to shorten or abbreviate it, but not nothing else yet. Although, I mean, if if I ever get into a really bad rut with the sports betting, I'm sure I can monetize off of Tortellini in some way now. Right. You've got the Crypto punks. You've got Tortellini. You have options as far as monetization. So you said you had a rough run. It's no sweat. You know, you're all set with the Crypto punks and Tortellini. So there's there's really nothing to worry about here, right? It's it's I'm lucky that the the rough streaks have not been prolonged this year because there's always going to be rough streaks regardless of whatever you're betting on. You're going to have some some periods of bad variants, but things have always turned around and that has continued this year. So fingers crossed that that continues going forwards and I didn't just jinx it. Yeah, excellent. So, you know, Rob, we've had you on to talk about your NFL model, but not NHL. What are you doing for the NHL? Are you on a team level or do you look at it from the player level? It's player level. I think several years ago, I just came to the realization that when you're doing things at a team level and then trying to account for injuries and other factors on top of that, I just kind of thought it was a flawed approach in general. And I started to really notice it across several sports at different times where any team was dealing with like a cluster syndrome cluster injury situation where it's not as just it's not as simple as just subtracting the values of each one of those players. There's compounding effects of having multiple players out at one position or multiple players out for a team and it took some major losses to come to that conclusion. But since then, I've been aspiring to model everything I can at a player level. Most of the major sports, it's fine because at least you have good data available and you're able to do so. Some of the smaller markets, it's a little bit more difficult. I've ventured off into stuff like rugby as an example, trying to model other sports and you just really can't get to the player level for stuff like that unless you're willing to pay extremely large amounts for data. But I've kind of taken that approach across the board now where I think it's just really hard to beat markets at a team level at this point. Well, the cluster thing is important too, especially now with all with COVID contact tracing and stuff like that. Do you feel like that is giving you an advantage kind of being able to better account for that within your numbers? I do. I think I'm very good at accounting for that in general, but just the general unknowns of COVID this year have caused a different dynamic embedding. So normally where I would be very willing to fire on something at nine o'clock in the morning, maybe I'm less inclined to do so now because a team is either coming off a COVID break or they've had one COVID case within their team, which could potentially lead to more. So I think, yes, it gives me an advantage in terms of I think I'm very well equipped to model the game itself when I know everything that's going to happen in that game. But we've seen all sorts of late scratches this year. There are times where teams are warming up and they'll scratch someone in warmups. And that creates a problem just in general because I'm pretty reliant on having lineups available for hockey in order to project the games and when you lose that ability, you kind of either have to take a shot earlier on in the day and just deal with the fact that sometimes it's going to work against you, which it has a lot of times this year, or you just wait till you have all the information, but then someone else might have beat you to the market at that point. Right. So you may have to deal with getting a less efficient line, but also that can be offset because if you get a line before COVID news is announced, it's hideously inefficient. So it's kind of a tradeoff in that sense. Right? It is. Like I still very much lean towards betting early just in general. My general philosophy is that, you know, half the time the news is going to work in your favor and half the time it's going to work against you. And I do believe that it balances out over the long run. I do feel that I've been unlucky this year on new situations where more often than not, I've gotten hurt by the late COVID scratch or some surprise news because you have to remember beat reporters weren't with the teams at some points this year. There's less beat reporters with the teams in general. So news is just harder to come by. Sometimes you'll go an entire day without a beat reporter for a team, even tweeting out a lineup or a projected lineup or something like that. But I'm still of the philosophy. I'm better off betting early, but it can certainly be frustrating. Obviously, when you're putting a large amount of money down on a game and then something happens where it's just not what you projected. Yeah. Hey, Rob, I wanted to ask you a little bit more about the player modeling.  If you had to compare them, like is it that the player model is just better at finding inefficiencies compared to, you know, predicting the outcome of every game? Yeah. So I mean, with everything I do, I'm tracking error metrics when I run a model, right? So every model that I produce, I have some way of being able to back test that against previous seasons. It makes it a little bit more difficult this year because I've had to make some major tweaks this year based off of the COVID landscape, I guess you would say for NHL, where the back testing might not matter as much. But for me, ultimately what it came down to is I'm back testing my error metrics, whether that's log loss or whatever you want to use the complete suite and the player level was outperforming pinnacle closing lines, not only my team level model, but outperforming the closing lines as well. So at that point, I was just like, I might as well go this route. There makes no sense to continue down on the team level. I still do run the team level stuff and honestly, I don't know where I stand with it because I'm not making plays off it or not. I think probably I could beat like an overnight market with the with the team level stuff, but day of when when limits come off of the games, I think it would be an extreme challenge. So that's specific to your NHL player and team model? Depends on the sport like MLB. I've always done at a player level because I don't think that there's really a good way to market it to model it at a team level. And then football would be the same thing, but football. There are inherent challenges with backtesting games as well. So it's tough at the end of the day, though, I do have a lot more confidence in being able to to do things at a player level now and say this is what I think the number is on a game. And in some cases, there are some pretty drastic differences between doing it at a player level and team level. And I dig into those as well to see what's causing this difference. And if logically it makes sense to me, then then I just roll with it. That's interesting. And I think that NHL specifically is interesting because as someone who doesn't, you know, who hasn't bet it heavily, I'm curious about like the impact of like line changes and because that's player meshing and for a player level model that can definitely impact things. Do you have to adjust when teams make adjustments to their line? How can you model for that? I guess if you're explained to someone like me, who is very much a newbie to this, there's only there's a level of sophistication you could get to. And then there's a point where you're like this is just too much or it's not worth the effort. So for me, like lines are important, but first and foremost, it's like a modeling the NBA where I would project what I think a player minutes are going to be for a player. I do the exact same thing for NHL. Now, part of that is based off of the line combinations that includes whether they're on the power play or penalty killing and then some of that is coaching tendencies as well because some coaches will tend to let's say lean on their best players a little bit more, especially when they're trailing. Some player coaches will tend to use for lines a little bit more. So I'm really trying to get as accurate a minute projection as I can on each player and then everything else just falls into place from there. Okay, perfect. So let's go back to you when you were initially building out this NHL model. What were the biggest difficulties for you in building that one versus building one for MLB for NFL or any other sports you may have built one for? I don't think I honestly encountered any major roadblocks. I think I had like, I always draw out my logic on paper just in general of like, this is how I think I should do this and I took computer programming when I was in college and I wasn't a very good programmer, but that's just kind of the way I think it's from a very logical point of view. So I kind of map it out that way and then I go through it and I never really encountered any roadblocks in the actual modeling process. It's it's over the course of the years where like integrity of data has was a huge issue for me last year because the entire data set for the NHL in the first month of last season was completely wrong in terms of where they were tracking shot locations on the ice and for someone who is running some sort of expected goals for players, I'm very reliant on those shot locations being accurate. And then you'll start to learn things about the tracking is different rank by rank, depending on who's actually tracking that data. It's it's no different in baseball with some of the stat cast data where there's I think it's Detroit's ballpark or something that is very a very hot gun. Yes. Right. So and I learned that over the course of the years as well. So it's you have this data set and you assume that everything there is just I mean 100% you're 100% confident in the data, but sometimes you're there's reasons not to be and and that's kind of something that's really they've really honed in on over the course of the years is whenever I have outliers in my model. If I'm constantly betting on I don't know and be over in the flyers games regularly and the market is not reacting. I really start to dig into those and the data that's leading to that for one. And then if not if it's not the data that's causing it, what logic is causing this to happen. So I never really had yeah, any any real roadblocks building the model, but along the way definitely stuff has come up and like this season as an example is very different because and it's posed some very interesting problems for me because with the way that the NHL structured this year, you have four divisions that are only playing games within their division. They don't play the the other teams in the league. So you almost have to treat the league like it's four different leagues. Yeah. So, you know, if I use an example and I learned this the hard way very early on in the year this year, but there's been an average of roughly 5.85 goals a game in the NHL this season. Three of the four divisions are actually below that. Only one is above that, which is the North Division. So if I'm treating the entire league is having the same scoring environment. I get to what I got to in the third or fourth week of the season where I'm constantly playing the North Division under and I'm constantly playing the central, which I think is the lowest scoring division over regularly. And I'm like, hmm, what's going on here? And then I dig through the logic as an example. And it's like, ah, this is the mistake I've made, but I would have never had to deal with that before. So this year, there's certainly been probably two or three different examples of stuff that I've learned along the way, expensive lessons I would call them. I'm kind of hoping that at some point down the road that we do have another season like this. So at least I'm kind of ahead of the curve and dealing with it. But even if we don't, at least it's an exercise in in, you know, modeling properly or just learn teaching yourself something new. Yeah, no, that's fascinating, Rob, because because you're doing this player modeling, you figured out all these tricks with average goals in the division. But that should actually probably help you in the playoffs when these teams start actually playing each other, right? Because someone who does like a team level thing. There's there's no data there to mesh any of those four divisions together, right? So you're probably going to come out ahead then. Yes, yes and no. So by the time we get to the playoffs, we're likely going to have a very different environment than we have now because we started the season with zero fans in the stadium. And now we have some fans and by playoff time it's possible that entire stadiums are filled and then maybe you're not comparing apples to apples. If you're starting to use the regular season data and it's it's tricky. I mean, there are times where I'm I'm literally I would call it throwing darts at a wall, but it's it's educated guesses, right? And either I can take this stance that I'm just not going to bet this because I'm not confident enough or I can take the stance that no one else is going to be confident enough in this. Maybe I can take an educated best that guess that's better than than others. So we'll see what comes down the road for playoffs. Typically, I've used NHL playoffs is kind of like a break period for me because the regular season is a pretty big grind, but if I feel like I have a pretty strong edge there or I can account for something better than than others then certainly I'll I'll I'll go down that route. Excellent. Well, let's talk here about the actual data that you're looking at here and obviously it's player level. So that does change the conversation a bit. If someone is looking to get into NHL modeling, they've not done in the past. What data should they be looking at? And how long does it take for that data to actually stabilize and become sticky? Yeah, there's a there's a couple of sites that I would recommend for data first and foremost. There's one called Devolving Hockey and the other one's called natural stat trick which will have the full data suite that you actually need. Like you can build your own data set obviously by using NHL play by plays and doing that but for the average person that's going to be very overwhelming. It's going to be time-consuming. There are inherent advantages to doing that because you're not reliant on on someone else. We've seen data sites in the past that get bought up by teams before and then they just go offline overnight and then you're kind of I mean you're kind of screwed in that sense.  I think first and foremost when you're when you're looking we've kind of seen like this evolution towards expected goals in hockey. It's not a perfect metric but it's the best that we have right now in terms of an indicator of what a team should have scored based off of their their shots from from all over the ice and the expected goals is going to differ depending on what site you look at but they're relatively going to be in the same range because each person can build out expected goals and they're in the same way but that's certainly some you know point where you want to start because there's so much variance in hockey right it's it's such a low scoring sports or a low event sport that you see runs in the sport that are unlike what you would see in anything else really so expected goals always brings you right back down to reality now there's other metrics that can tell the same story scoring chances high danger scoring chances Corsi which is a possession based metric basically the amount of shots that you take and now we're starting to get actual real possession based metrics which is like offensive zone time just in general how often you spend in the other team zone and things like that but there's really a ton of different things in general is that it might seem very overwhelming because there's so much data you can filter so many different things but they really have like really good glossories as to what these metrics are and they explain them pretty well so somebody could go through them like that in terms of how long it takes to stabilize it really depends on what you're looking at like it's roughly going to take you 15 to 20 games into an NHL season before you can really truly say that this team is likely going to perform at this level going forwards but there's other things to account for whether they've had players out during that period what their goaltending play has been like because goaltending is highly random over the course of a season so roughly 15 to 20 games is a pretty good you know event size to to fall back on but that that can really differ depending on what you're looking at and it sounds like a lot of this is data that's come into the collective knowledge semi the way that you model things what's the process like for you when new data points pop up investigating that data and deciding if it's something you want to incorporate within your own model yeah so at first first thing I do is is I'll find that data so I used to run a model that was strictly based off of Corsi actually even before that strictly based off shots on goal when I this is 10 years ago shots on goal which I mean I can laugh about it now but at that time it was good enough to be the market and then I moved on to Corsi and then I kind of moved into expected goals so what I'll typically do is I'll I personally my my process is to apply the changes that I think are necessary and then back test it and I I check my error metrics obviously and then I I run a test against a full season of closing lines to see how I would have fared against the pinnacle closing line or just a sharp books closing line in general and and if it didn't I'll pull it it's not that I won't explore it again down the road but there's been times where I've I've made some changes and it just didn't test well and I was like okay you know what that's it is what it is I thought this would test better and it didn't and that's kind of just the goal for me is continuously improve error metrics going forwards excellent so Rob it's I mean it sounds like with the with the type of data you're talking about you're getting more on offensive players is there Oh defense this is this is where I think there's an advantage to be had for sure in hockey right now because most of the data available is is definitely geared towards offense I mean you can obviously flip every metric right if if you have an expected goals for the the opposing team as an expected goals against for the and so on and so forth so you can flip anything but there's really not a lot of great metrics in terms of measuring defense I think you see the same thing across baseball where depending on which metric you're going to use you can get a highly variable results either a guy can be an elite defender or an average defender and you're like well now the none of that really makes sense we're kind of at that point with hockey right now where there are defensive metrics out there but there's no consistency across the board and how you would rate a defender I think if if there's an area that's really going to improve over the course the next two or three years especially with the NHL player data that's going to become available for next season as well the official licensed player data there that they're tracking and speeds on ice and and things of that nature it's probably going to come in the form of defensive improvement excellent yeah because the you know expected goals against is again like a team metric right which is exactly what you're trying to get away from right and and trying to figure out exactly how an individual player impacts their teams expected goals against or I mean these are all challenges that you face in general how much how much was to do with the defensive pairing that they were in was his other defenseman dragging him down or weighing him up and the same comes with forwards right how much was to do with him playing with two good forwards on the line or too bad forwards and it's tough I mean it's time consuming but at the end of the day I I want to try to get as close to a true probability as possible so and the unfortunate part is separating player from context is something that translates to literally every sport you could possibly bet on so difficulties across the board but at least a good foundation here people are trying to get into NHL especially with the playoffs just around the corner let's talk about the future's market here Rob because it's a good time to do so I think with the playoffs kind of taking shape here for sure looking at the Stanley Cup Odds over at Fandell Sports but we got the avalanche and the lightning both six to one got the Maple Leafs and the Knights at plus 750 so there's kind of this group of four at the top do you see any value in those four teams or is there value elsewhere in the market or is it one you're just kind of staying away from right now so I do see value in a couple of these teams actually and I think ordinarily when people think about hockey they think about a sport with a ton of randomness and that's that's true there is a ton of randomness they're not wrong about that historically it probably worth taking a flyer on a few long shots here and there over the course of the season but I do think that this year especially there's a pretty sizable discrepancy between Tampa Bay Colorado and the rest of the league especially when you consider that Tampa Bay is likely going to get Nikita Kutcherov back for the playoffs who is literally their best forward that they've been playing without this entire season on route to an amazing record so you look at at six to one which is what Tampa Bay and Colorado are right now that's an implied probability of just over 14% for both of those teams I have both of those teams roughly 20% or higher right now so this is highly unusual that I would be recommending two teams at six to one to win the Stanley Cup but I think either of those are a good bet right now if I had to pick one of the two would be the Avalanche I know Colorado's trailing Vegas in the division right now but they suffered through a rash of injuries so far this season including the season because you have way more back to backs if you have to go to a worse backup goalie you're more likely to lose that game and I think Colorado's really suffered from that but they're arguably the most stacked team I've seen in the NHL in a long time definitely in the last decade or so they can roll four lines they have some elite defenseman Phillip Grubauer who's their starting goalie has developed into an upper echelon goalie so I think Colorado's definitely the team to beat this year six to one seems like seems like excellent Fandall sportsbook also has some division odds up and all four division seem very far from decided are there any numbers that you see as an tages here I do I'm looking right now so Boston is plus 330 to win the East which I think is a fine bet that's roughly about 23 percent implied I think they're closer to 30 percent true probability there if you're looking at the standings you're you know it's going to look like Boston's pretty far off the division lead but they have a bunch of games in hand that they have to make up because they had a covid situation last week and missed a bunch of games and that's going to lead to some rough rest situations for them later on in the year which I'm a little bit scared about but they arguably have the best gold tending tandem in the entire league with Tuca Rask and Yaroslav Halak so you know you're going to get good gold tending on any given night even and if you have to play you know seven games in 11 days or whatever so I think that you know while the condensed schedule is going to hurt some of the aging veterans on the team they're going to get good gold tending everywhere plus 330 you're more likely to lose the bet than to win it but I'm just looking for value and I I still think Boston can go on a late season run here this is where the player level modeling comes in too because you can kind of suss out the teams may have benefited from the truncated schedule then we go to the playoffs and it's a different schedule you can separate that out and it's something that we've seen a lot in the NBA with rotations and stuff like that rotations timing during the playoffs is made models kind of or some models certainly be pretty far off so I think that that's going to be advantageous for you in the playoffs the player level model specifically there I think so I mean I think people who generally struggle in the playoffs they're kind of using the same exact model as a regular season and just thinking that the it's just going to apply to the playoffs but the reality is in every single sport the playoffs change the NFL which is plays very much like the regular season in general but certainly the NBA and the NHL the games are much lower scoring because there's less of a referee impact that's just proven over the the course of the years they let the teams play a little bit more in general so there's a lot of things that you know that don't necessarily apply and I mean I think that's just an important point to stress in general when if you are betting post season in any sport don't assume that that the same things from the regular season the NFL is running back usage as far as snap rates but that's not going to make a whole heck of a lot of a difference in terms of trying to model things out so the final market we have here as far as futures over an NHL Fandall Sportsbook is betting on teams to make or miss the playoffs and the juice on these is a little little steep at times but are you seeing any value in that market right now as far as teams make you missing the playoffs I I am I mean I have no problem laying laying juice or vague if if I feel that there's value there and I'm definitely say that LA to miss the playoffs is minus 220 that has some serious value right now like that should be priced closer to minus 400 something like that I mean they're five points back of a playoff spot they're five points back of St. Louis for the final spot in the West but the blues are one of the teams that have been decimated by injuries this year they're slowly starting to get back to full strength they got Vladimir Terasenko back last week they're going to get the defenseman back this week as well it's a team that's really bordering on be getting back to full strength in the course of the next few days or so and frankly when they're at full strength they're just so much better than LA and not only does LA have to catch St. Louis but they have to pass Arizona who's in between them as well who has a chance so yeah like looking at this minus 220 I think is roughly 70 percent implied for them to miss the playoffs it's much higher than that it's we're talking 85 90 percent here so I think that's far and away the biggest standout I guess in the same vein you could you could take a look at St. Louis minus 175 to make the playoffs on the other side of things but I'm not as enthused on that because they could get a push from Arizona who is that that team in between so I do think that the Kings is the safer of the the two bets there but I mean you could potentially if you're willing to double dip there's some sort of correlation there as well where I think you can you can kind of get both that correlated markets absolutely take advantage of that whenever you get the opportunity to do so because we don't always get that chance for sure now Rob before I let you go I did want to give you a chance talk about your new podcast it's a circles off podcast and pretty new so for those who have not listened to the circles off podcast yet what are you doing over there yeah so I think there's kind of like a gap in the market right now for kind of on the pod but just in general like most the podcast you hear are general picks podcast so a lot of daily stuff we've kind of taken a weekly approach where we're discussing topics that seem to come up a lot whether that's through DMs on Twitter people reaching out to us in general and just trying to like really educate the population on on ways that they could take advantage rather than focus on strictly here and go out and bet these types of things so it's lead to some entering interesting discussions in general but the feedback has been good so far and I'm I'm enjoying it quite a bit okay perfect you can find the link to the circles off podcast in the show notes up on numberfire dot com or just search for wherever you get your podcast that is Rob Pazzola makes you check him out on Twitter at Rob Pazzola Rob we appreciate the time and kind of diving deep into the way you build out your NHL model really appreciate that good conversation good luck to you for the rest of the regular season the playoffs and everything else you're betting to hopefully we'll talk to you again here soon thanks guys thanks for having me covering the future big thank you once again to Rob Pazzola for swinging by and breaking down everything that he discussed and had I love getting to hear about what goes into a model and I think that we talk about this when we had Rob on to talk about the NFL the value of a player level model but I think that the more it's the way you should be doing things I the more you hear about the more you hear the value of it I think that you've been tinkering with that too like toggling players on off and stuff like that to an extent as well is that correct and not really kind of falling behind on the player level stuff but yeah no I mean it was interesting to hear Rob talk about his air metrics because that that's kind of the gold gold standard right right you want to check how they do in every single game and you know I'm a little surprised that the player level does that well he's clearly doing something right and the way he's meshing things and I kind of wanted to dig a little deeper into how much you know whether he's thinking about players as individuals and just putting together or how much you know like how much teamwork kind of plays a role because you can actually look at how well to and three player groups work together I've done a little bit of that for the NBA but yeah there's a lot of interesting things and I think just you know when you say you back tested and the error metrics are better than clinical like that that gets my ears to perk up and get my interest and for you when you're testing your model what error metrics do you use to test the efficacy of it yeah I mean I'm always looking at root mean squared air so you know you take you know in the NFL in any football game you look at the actual game result and then you subtract what your prediction said and you square that and from my academic time I mean there's a lot of different ways to do it but when I was looking in the academic world just like your squared air has a ton of good mathematical properties and there there was a lot of work there that said like this is a good thing to do so so it's pretty simple it's relatively easy to explain and that's what I'm using to quantify all my models okay perfect so you check out what Rob is doing over at the circles off podcast checking out on Twitter at Rob Pizzolo let's dive into covering the spread or covering the future for today and again we have two shows coming up today here on covering the spread we're talking sweet 16 later on the Drew Martin but you wanted to start things off here by talking sweet 16 for your covering the future as well talking about one of the darlings of the opening weekend here and Oral Roberts what are you seeing for their match against Arkansas on Saturday yeah I mean honestly not a lot Oral Roberts has been made a great run so the second 15 seed to make the sweet 16 when they actually made it I was like yeah they're the first right and then someone quickly reminded me about Florida Gulf Coast I kind of forgot that they don't city man yeah don't see so first of all yes so clearly don't city the internet has told me that don't city is the proper name for that Florida Gulf Coast team but I thought we had anointed them as Lobb City because they were throwing so many lobs that year especially in those first two games and the but Florida Gulf Coast 2013 so the second team 15 seen to make the sweet 16 and they have that little guard Max it's app it I'm I'm going to say this wrong but Asmus and then and then they have Kevin O'Banner so these two players have have been really good leading the teams past Ohio State and Florida but you know let's get a little bit into some of the metrics like why exactly they won and the reason is that the three-point defense has been incredible so Florida and Ohio State shot 7 for 45 7 for 45 from 3 that's 16 percent and one thing I talk about my bracket wisdom series is just how unsustainable three-point defense is it's it's kind of remarkable so you know anytime you have three-point defense as low as 16 percent you're definitely going to see a lot of regression to the college basketball average it's been it's been quite a defensive run this is unsustainable in the next podcast I'll talk about how this is unsustainable for another team as well the exact same metric but you got to remember I mean this all Roberts team finished fourth in the regular season in the summit league and they only made the tournament because they beat two teams ahead of them South Dakota State and North Dakota State by a total of five points in the conference tournaments and you know they've only one their two tournament games I think both by three points so they're winning close games again another thing that's kind of unsustainable especially when you have this kind of three-point defense and then Arkansas is a really solid team it's an athletic SEC team they're pretty good on offense they're actually they thrive more on defense their 11th when I look at my adjusted points per possession the offense isn't as strong but a respectable 29th so definitely kind of worthy of of that three seed you know and they have a 66 wing and a lottery pick in ESPN so you know the numbers I trust the most like Arkansas by more than 12 points so I definitely like Arkansas minus 11 and a half also I also like the moneyline here too because I have it at about 91 percent win probability so yeah I don't see much much coming from oral Roberts and I like Arkansas in this game if you ever need we heard Rob talking about implied odds too and I know that free people who are new to betting may not know what different numbers imply if you go to oddsfire.com you can go to numberfire.com slash odd slash converter you can plug in the American odds it'll spit out the percentage odds and the fractional odds the moneyline implied odds in Arkansas right now 86.1 percent and you said 92 or 91 percent on them models yeah so 5 percentage points of edge there you're going to take that pretty much every time because you don't find that number very much so if you need help with that converting those numbers numberfire.com slash odds slash converter to get that and I'm actually going to talk about some of that actually no or a different thing but either way it is helpful if you are new to this trying to convert those numbers into different probabilities and again more college basketball talk coming up later today with Drew Martin and I will be sobbing over my Big Ten assumption lineups not going to be fun there for sure my cover in the future for today this first podcast talking about baseball because we are one week away from opening day and I want to talk about a guy we discussed earlier a couple weeks ago with Ariel Ariel Epstein I was trying to get her to bite on betting Jean-Carlo Stanton to win the AL MVP and Ariel said no and I fully understand that because he gets hurt a lot she's a Yankees fan doesn't want to jinx it I get it but there is another route to get exposure to Stanton that offers a little bit more flexibility and that's betting in a 20 to 1 to lead the league in home runs those odds are tied for 11th highest in baseball right now they've shortened to bits so make sure you do some price shopping see if you can get a better number than or a number better than 20 to 1 out there but I think there is a chance this number shortens even a bit more before opening day because Stanton he was hurt a lot last year which is why this number is so long but when he was healthy he was just hitting lasers his 18% barrel rate would have ranked 3rd in baseball had he qualified one of the guys ahead of him was Miguel Sano who strikes out to a point where can't really expect him to lead the league in home runs because just doesn't put enough balls in play barrel rate is based on number of balls in play so Stanton has has a leg up there his barrel rate through 18 battered balls this spring is 22.2% it hasn't led to a huge isolated slugging percentage but the battered ball quality matters more here ISO is actually a number you can look at during the spring power numbers and strike out numbers are numbers that can stabilize over to 50 to 60 plate appearances so you can look at those we're not going to see that with Stanton right now the barrel rate very good for him he's likely to be the DH the Yankees and most of the regular season that'll keep him healthy hopefully not playing in the field and they said they're open to having to play outfield the games where they lose the DH playing in a National League Park as of right now there is no universal DH so do you want to make sure that guy will be out there when they're facing the National or playing the National League Park does sound like Stanton will be doing that during the regular season healthy hitting the ball well in a hitter friendly park probably going to play pretty much every day I do still think there's value in him at MVP to an MVP at 35 to one but that's an award that involves voting which is not super fun always it includes performance on defense Stanton won't be moving the needle there by any means so I think the better market in which to get exposure to Stanton is to lead the league in home runs there's no voting there it's all about power and we know that Stanton has that so I'm Stanton at 20 to one to lead the league in home runs for this year and we'll see how things break down and if you had time to look at baseball yet given we've been in the throws of March for so long no no I'll be looking at I'll be getting some of my stuff together for next week hopefully so okay perfect we'll look forward to that we'll have a show next week to talk about the final for the masters just around the corner so a lot of good stuff coming up here in the not too sure you are subscribed to cover in the spread wherever you get your podcast once again if you have not yet listened to our podcast with Drew Martin you'll listen to this on Friday go check that out on this exact same feed and while you're there leave us a rating and review as well big thank you to Rob Pazzola find them on Twitter at Rob Pazzola check out the circles off podcast that is a link to that on the number fire podcast note also you can find that by searching for circles off wherever you get this week over at the power rank yeah talking about sweet 16 on my email newsletter you can get more of my sweet 16 predictions so check that out at the power rank dot com you can find Ed on Twitter as well at the power rank I am at Jim Sonnis J I M S A N N E S you can also follow the Fandual podcast network at Fandual podcast big thank you to our video producer Calvin Theobald for running the video side of things here today thank you cow as always and thank you to everyone for tuning in good luck to you if you decide to build out in an hl model or dive into any of the futures bets that Rob mentioned as well good luck and I hope it goes well we'll talk to you once again later today to preview the sweet 16 this has been covering the spread right here on the Fandual podcast network


The International Agency for Research on Cancer has published a report classifying processed meat like bacon and ham hot dogs and lunch meat as a Group 1 carcinogen. How has that revelation been received by governments and industry? And just how much cancer does processed meat cause? I'll answer those questions in this two-part series. It is perhaps rare in the history of nations that one finds good reasons to render homage to the generosity and altruism of governments and those in power, but the birth of the International Agency for Research on Cancer presents one of those rare occasions. It all started with a single letter from a bereaved husband relating the suffering of his wife after a cancer diagnosis, cascading into this open letter calling for governments to devote half of 1% of their military budgets to fight for life, by attacking one of the greatest plagues that weigh on humanity. And 18 months later, the IARC was born in the World Health Organization, with what overarching motive? Cancer prevention. The IARC is best known for its monographs, book-sized reports evaluating whether or not some suspected carcinogen does in fact cause cancer. They are generally accepted as close to a final word as there is on whether or not something is carcinogenic. And their 114th monograph, published in 2018, was on meat. After thoroughly reviewing the accumulated scientific literature, a working group of 22 experts from 10 countries, after considering more than 800 different studies, concluded their 500-page report by establishing that something like a burger or pork chop is probably carcinogenic, probably causes cancer, but processed meat was placed as a group 1 carcinogen, which is the highest level of certainty, meaning that, according to the best available evidence, the consumption of processed meat causes cancer. So that means foods like bacon cause cancer, ham, hot dogs, breakfast links, lunch meat cause cancer. But their definition also includes, for example, turkey deli slices, specifically. Eating processed meat causes colorectal cancer, cancers of the colon or rectum. The second most deadly cancer worldwide after lung cancer, which is caused largely from smoking. Colorectal cancer is the second leading cause of cancer death here in the United States as well, and it doesn't just strike older people. It's also leading cause of cancer, and death from cancer earlier in life as well. The meat industry wasn't happy, calling it dramatic and alarmist overreach. Speaking of dramatic and alarmist overreach, one ag group in Italy sent out a press release, just say no to terrorism on meat. The gloves were off. The meat industry in Canada tried to pressure the government to cut off funds to the IARC, asking the health minister to pull off funding from the agency after they dared to question meat. And the US meat industry did the same thing. It's no surprise the IARC is under siege by corporate interests, trying to challenge their cancer evaluations on Monsanto's roundup pesticide and meat, trying to discredit the agency and undermine financial support. Internal documents have revealed that Monsanto scientists, for example, casually discussed ghostwriting scientific articles and suppressing any science that conflicts with the company's assertions of safety. The chemical industry has joined the corporate cacophony, calling the IARC monographs dubious and misleading. These are classic strategies straight out of the tobacco industry playbook. There's little to suggest that as a corporate actor, big tobacco differs fundamentally from big booze or big food, for example. One recurring corporate talking point is that basically the IARC never met a carcinogen it didn't like. But the vast majority end up being characterized as just possibly carcinogenic, for there really aren't sufficient data to make a determination either way. And look, they only spend time looking at substances for which there's already an existing body of scientific literature indicating a degree of carcinogenic hazard to humans, so no wonder many of them end up indeed carcinogenic. How did the IARC respond to all the criticism? The World Health Organization received a number of queries, expressions of concern, and requests for clarification following the publication of their Meat and Cancer Report. They replied, Hey, we never told anyone to stop eating processed meats. Look, your body, your choice. They just indicated that reducing consumption of these products can reduce the risk of a leading cancer killer. So hey, you like cancer? You do you. The IARC is just a research organization that evaluates the evidence on the causes of cancer. After that, what you do with that information is up to you. The American Cancer Society was nice and clear when it came to alcohol. When it comes to cancer, it's best not to drink. But they got a little more wishy-washy with processed meats, suggesting people can get away with just limiting their intake. The European Commission was a little clearer. To reduce our risk of cancer, we should eat plenty of whole grains, pulses, which are beans, flipies, chickpeas, lentils, vegetables, and fruits, limit sugary, fatty, salty foods, and straight up avoid soda, sausage, and other processed meats. In answering the question, how much meat is safe to eat, the IARC replied that we don't yet know whether a safe level exists, period.


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Man buys a second-hand baby crib then immediately returns it when he sees what's inside. Buying second-hand stuff is fun. It's crazy how you can find true treasures without spending a ton of money. Plus, the concept of reusing things is beneficial for the environment. However, there is always the risk of buying an item with flaws or imperfections. But that's the beauty of second-hand. Everything you get is unique and cannot be found anywhere else. That's exactly what this man had in mind. All he wanted was to buy a unique crib for his granddaughter. As soon as he found the one and brought it home, he looked at the crib better. And that's when his blood ran cold. Ricky is a lovely man. He dedicated his life to his children. Everything he did was for making their lives easier and happier. Right when his children announced that he was going to be a grandpa, Ricky lost it. He then started getting gifts to his children, including that one second-hand crib he bought. Little did he know that his purchase was about to turn into a nightmare. The seller's name was Valerie Smith. This woman put up for sale this crib, and that was something she wasn't happy or proud about. But why was that? Why did she have this odd behavior? Well, that woman's dark past explains a lot. Valerie was the happiest when she found out she was pregnant.  All she wanted was to have this precious child in her hands. Unfortunately, this new chapter in her life got a terrifying twist. About a year after finding out she was pregnant, Valerie decided to have a garage clear out. Not only did she want to clean her garage, but also try to sell anything she could. As she was shorting her things out, something horrifying caught her eye. It was a crib. She got it in her hands with tears in her eyes and put it for sale online. However, her post did not include the dark truth about this crib. The young woman was familiar with selling and buying second-hand stuff, so she knew exactly what she had to do to sell this crib. She posted a good picture online and advertised it a lot. And the crib got sold in less than a month. Soon, she realized her huge mistake. Ricky lived just a few blocks away from Valerie, so he saw her post about the crib. He was very happy to find this post because he was searching for a crib exactly like that one. His wife Loreen also checked it out and knew it was the one for their granddaughter. Little did he know that this crib was not what it looked like. At first, the crib looked just fine. In fact, it looked like a new one. It was in great condition. It was clean and big enough. Ricky was so happy to find it in such a good bargain. It turned out, he was completely wrong the whole time. Both Ricky and his wife Loreen were confident that this crib was the one. They truly believed that this would be a great purchase, so they contacted Valerie. Valerie was surprised and invited Ricky and Loreen to her house. She wanted to get rid of this crib as soon as possible. But why was that? What was so wrong with it? Well, the truth is shocking. When the old couple arrived at Valerie's, they noticed that the young woman was a bit off and Ricky could see it. She avoided eye contact, and she didn't talk much. Ricky and Loreen could tell that she was acting weird, but they didn't know her, so they initiated to just get the crib and leave. Something was very wrong. Ricky and Loreen knew that there was something wrong with that lady. But the crib still everything they wanted, so they decided to forget about Valerie. As soon as they got home, Loreen took a greater look at the crib, and that's when she started screaming out of horror. Loreen had never screamed so loudly in her life ever before. And Ricky was terrified to hear his loved one go out of her mind. He had to see himself what was inside the crib that made Loreen lose it. He got closer to the crib and took a better look. He immediately got that crib and headed back to Valerie's with tears in his eyes. Ricky deserved some explanation. He headed to Valerie's house just a few hours after she had sold the crib to him. She opened the door and couldn't believe her eyes. Why was he back in her house? What was happening? Did they find out the truth? Well, this conversation was intense. All that Ricky wanted was to know the truth. Valerie let him get into her house once again, and he started the questions. Ricky's first question was enough to make Valerie burst into tears. What's your baby's name, he asked. Valerie had to sit down, she didn't feel well. But she had to reveal the truth. It was tough for Valerie to reveal her dark past to these two strangers, but she owed them the truth. So here is what really happened, when Valerie got pregnant, she started to have those weird stomach and back pains. At first, she believed that these were common pregnancy symptoms, but that was not the case. Valerie had these symptoms for several weeks. At that point, she knew that it wasn't normal. Something was wrong, and she had to find out. Then, Valerie decided to visit her doctor. She just wished that everything was fine. She did a full checkup and waited for the results. While waiting, she was literally shaking. Everything's going to be alright, she said. But she was wrong. She had an ultrasound and the results were about to come out. Valerie was feeling so sick, and she couldn't help it but cry. And she was all alone. She was divorced, her friends were out of town, and her parents didn't know. The poor woman was in a horrible condition when the doctor came and broke her even more. Valerie had a massive lump in her throat. Doctors theorized that the umbilical cord had become compressed in the womb, making it impossible for nutrients and oxygen to make it to the fetus. She had just lost her baby. Her world just tore apart in a few seconds. Losing a child is one of the most difficult feelings in the world. Valerie had relied to the coming of this child in order to be happy again. And that was not going to happen. Her mental breakdown lasted for months. But after she got her life together, she had one last thing to do. It was extremely hard for Valerie to go around the house, and see all the nursery stuff she had bought for her little baby. She had to get rid of them, otherwise she would never be able to move on from this situation. She didn't want to throw all that new stuff though. So, she temporarily moved them into her garage. But that was not enough. Even though Valerie was heartbroken, she was an active woman. And this included her going to her garage often, which was painful because she would get to see all that nursery stuff she wanted to get rid of. At that point, she realized that she had to do it. She had to throw away everything. Valerie decided to sell the baby stuff instead of throwing it away. She was into thrifting and buying second-hand things, so she thought that this would be a great idea. Little did she know that she would cause such horror to a poor old couple. Rikki and Loreen were shocked by Valerie's reveal. They didn't expect that plot twist in her story. Our.i.p know a 2019 to 2020, these words were written inside the crib they knew that there was something odd about her, but the reality was out of their imagination. Both Rikki and Loreen were devastated. They could feel Valerie's pain, and they felt horrible for going back to her house, and remind her of the loss she had. After what they got through, the old couple decided to make up for their mistake. And what they did brought Valerie to tears. Rikki have always loved crafts and DIYs. This was his time to shine. He wanted to transform this crib with its dark past into something fresh and new. He believed that this gift would help Valerie to move on and realize that life continues. The next day, he got down to work. As a father, Rikki could feel Valerie's pain. Valerie was the age of Rikki's children, and he thought that he could be his daughter. He then decided to transform the old crib into a brand new bench. And Rikki knew exactly why this was the perfect idea. Rikki had this idea that the new bench would be more like a memorial for Noah. This way, Valerie could use the bench and remember Noah at the same time. That was a great idea and Rikki was proud that he would help a young lady who went through this nightmare all by herself. This kind man wanted to create the perfect bench for Valerie. Even though it was ready, he wanted to add up some last touches, so that it would be perfect. He was nervous and didn't want to disappoint Valerie. The bench was ready, and Rikki decided to visit Valerie one last time. But he didn't expect this reaction. As soon as Valerie saw the bench, she burst into tears. She didn't believe that a stranger would spend all this time to create something for her. It was beautiful. She even offered him money but, of course, he didn't take it. It's just nice to be able to do something for someone, he said. Now, the bench has come to symbolize how a random act of kindness can turn a painfully and used crib into something comforting. Valerie was now ready to start a new chapter in her life. It's amazing, and there are good people out there, Valerie Smith said. After all the bad things she had been through, an old man showed up in her life and changed everything. Kindness can really change someone's life.


Hey everybody, this is Brett and this 2023 brand-new Ram 2500 Rebel is stock number 23T107. I am here at Summit Automotive in Fond du Lac, Wisconsin, you're new and used heavy-duty truck and Ram headquarters. This brand-new 2023 Ram 2500 has the 6.4 liter V8 Hemi engine, puts out 410 horsepower and 429 foot-pounds of torque. It's paired up with the 8-speed automatic transmission. I'm going to go all the way around in this video, inside, underneath, show you the new options on this particular truck. This is a brand-new trim level for 2023. It is not replacing the power wagon, but it looks a lot like the power wagon and it's got a lot of the same features as the power wagon. Looking off, you'll notice that it does have the worn Xeon 12 winch, so that is similar to the power wagon. This one has the LED headlamps, LED fog lamps, and LED running lights. You also get a sport hood, now I don't think that's part of the power wagon package, so that looks pretty cool and you can remove that plate in there to make it fully functional. As the LED headlamps, this color is called olive green. This truck comes in eight different colors when it's two-tone, and you can get nine colors when it's not two-tone, including diamond black. Olive green is kind of a cool color, it's got a lot of metal flake in it. The other thing that really sets the rebel apart from the power wagon is that this one comes with 20-inch painted and polished aluminum wheels, also comes with Goodyear Wrangler Duratrack tires, these are LT28560R20s, they're more of an aggressive tire, mud tire, if you will, that does have the Bilstein shocks, and the one thing that this does not have that the power wagon does is the disconnecting sway bars. But really that's the main difference, we also have brand new mirrors for this particular trim package, and I'm pretty sure these are going to be the new mirrors going forward because they've got a lot of functionality to them, and we'll go over that in just a second.  Total MSRP is $84,065 on this truck, the one thing to note that right here it says $69,325 is the base price, the base price for the power wagon is like $100 more, so something to think about, they're very similarly priced, three-year 36 bumper-to-bumper and five-year 60 powertrain, it's a greenhouse gas rating of B and a small rating of B, so pretty good there, and it's actually rated for safety ratings, and it's got pretty good scores, fours and five is pretty much up and down the board, minus rollover which is three, but pretty good safety ratings, I'd feel safe taking my family out in this vehicle in fact, just got in an accident today, in my grand caravan, everybody's fine, so Dodge Chrysler Jeep Ram makes very safe products, LED tail lamps, those have the ram box on here, and these open up like so, you've got a lot of storage in here which is really nice, you also have plugs that can come out, so if you got ice in here you can make these coolers and then just pull those plugs out and it'll actually empty like that, and you get lights back here, this box can lock with the key fob, and I just wanted to take a look underneath here, so the rebel comes with a bunch of skid plates, you can see there's one right there, over the fuel tank, transfer case, everything's got skid plates under here, very nice and heavy duty, and you get the Bilstein chocks back here, the rear suspension with the springs, so a lot smoother ride when you're unloaded, get the nice fender flares on there as well, this one does have the LED tail lamps, the backup parking sensors, locking tailgate, has the shock down assist, I'm pretty sure this one's got the power drop down tailgate, LED bed lights, if you ever want to turn your bed lights on, your buttons right there on the ram boxes, you get the bed extender slash cargo management system, and you also get the rail cargo management system with the adjustable cleats, you can loosen these up and kind of move them as you please, hard to do with one hand, anyways they adjust and you can lock them into place, really nice system, spring and bed liner goes onto the tailgate which is really nice as well, turn those lights off, this one does have the cargo cam, and let's check out that interior and then we're going to check out these brand new mirrors which are pretty sweet, has the enter and go system, inside the leather package, or what was that, that was the, yeah the leather equipment group gives you the black leather seats, you get the gray piping on there, the white stitching, you get the rebel embossed into the backrest, both these seats are heated and cooled in, power factory floor mats, auto headlamps, tilt, power pedals, you get this funky wood grain trim-ish, kind of wood grain-ish trim on there, I guess it's different, I like it, leather bolster on the door there, memory driver seat, power windows locks and power mirrors and these are your new mirror controls for these mirrors and I'll show you what they all do, so they've got LED lights in the back and they got LED lights in the front so we'll turn both those on, there's your LED lights facing backwards and then there's your LED lights facing forward, so you can turn those both on or just one at a time, these also have blind spot monitoring and heated elements in there, there's your blind spot mirror, if you remember the old or the previous model mirrors, you can control that blind spot mirror and you can still do that, so that's what this button does right here and you select which mirror you want to control, if you look at that bottom mirror, now you can control that bottom mirror, so that's a pretty neat feature that I liked on the old, on the previous model years, mirrors and then the last thing is this button right here, which telescopes them, now these are power telescoping, you got to press that and then you have to press the outside button, check that out, they go in like so, you got to press that button to make them come in and then of course they also power-fold in, so really cool mirrors on this truck and I'm pretty sure that these are going to be the standard going forward for the tow mirrors because they are so nice and have lots of functions to them, back seats are heated in this one on the outboard side, you do get the power sliding rear window with the built-in rear defrost, latch child safety system, you do get storage under here, this is a load floor, a load floor is really nice if you got muddy boots or tools, put them on there, you're not going to get your nice leather seats dirty or if you got pets, put both sides down, they've got a nice flat place to lay and once again they're not going to get your nice leather seats dirty, this is your worn winch controller, actually this is your, this is the hook for the front and your winch controller, so that comes with the Rebel package, that was a $2,500 option, underneath here is your Harman Kardon factory subwoofer, you still do get the in-floor storage back here with removable bins, you can put ice and drinks in there and it's like you have too many coolers and if you use your other Rambox coolers as coolers then you have four coolers or if you're not in Wisconsin just a bunch of extra storage space, two USBs, two USB-C's and heated seat buttons, 115 volt, 400 watt plug-in and you do get the side curtain airbags on those nice leather seats, child safety locks on the back doors, everything else is pretty much the same as the Ram was a while ago, so here is your Vinz sticker and this particular truck, I'll show you your tire and loading information sticker here in just a second, this particular truck has a max tow rating of 14,621 pounds and it has a max payload of 2,849 pounds, that's just based on the configuration and options on this truck, you can get this one maxed out at 16,870 pounds for towing and a max payload of 3,140 pounds, but that's all based on your options on the truck and how heavy the truck is. The other new thing for the Rebel here is that you get the 12-inch instrument cluster, so this is all digital from right there to over there is all digital display and you get your RPMs, your miles per hour and what's nice is that you still kind of have the same controls as before on the old screen but they just kind of made it wider, so that's a lot of cool stuff that you can do, vehicle info, trip info, navigation, your off-road pages right there and you get your steering angle, all that good stuff, still has digital speedometer, so really nice looking display, you get the leather wrapped heated steering wheel, cruise controls on the right, gear selector on the right, bluetooth and information center controls, audio controls on the back of the steering wheel, this one does have the Harman card and sound system and this is the UConnect 5 12-inch radio, you can see you get all your different apps here and we'll show you that it does have the navigation system, everything is really nice and quick with this radio, get AM, FM and Sirius XM radio and you can tell I've been in this truck because Radio Margaritaville is on.  Now down here is your eight-speed automatic transmission, your push button four-wheel drive, you can see you do get your axle lock right there, so that's similar to the power wagon where you can lock both the front and rear axles but notice there's no sway bar disconnect so that is the one thing that this thing doesn't have that the power wagon has over this particular trim level. Factory brake controller, stability control, tow haul, front and rear parking sensors, two usb's, two usb's and an aug jack, 115 volt, 400 watt plug-in and your keyless entry with remote start and power drop down tailgate. Cup holders and coin holders are all the same, you get this really good looking rebel metal piece right there, looks like you could remove that with a couple allen wrenches if you didn't like it. Dual glove boxes over there and nothing special except their speakers in the headliner or the headliner because of the Harman carton and assistant sos buttons and your power sign rear window button so they offer a new mirror as well this one doesn't have it but you can have like side views of what's behind you and the camera view of what's behind you that's an option and you get your home link buttons for your garage door security systems and lane systems. All right so we're going to take a look under the hood and then we'll turn on all those led lights, actually we'll do that right now and then we'll start it up take a look under the hood and we'll be all good. I like the rebel logo up top that looks really good. I would personally like to thank you for checking out the video today and hopefully from this HD video you've been able to verify the looks, styling and particularly the options on this particular RAM. New trim level always exciting to check out and like I was saying you could remove that insert right there and you could make that functional. Under the hood we have the 6.4 liter V8 Hemi engine 410 horsepower 429 foot pounds of torque. There's the emissions sticker sorry about that and hope you enjoyed the walk around I'm going to do one more final walk around here and to see more pictures of this truck or one of our other 550 new and used cars, trucks, SUVs, minivans, Wranglers, halftones, three quarter tons, one tons, you name it we got it. Go to that website right there summitauto.com full pictures and descriptions of every single vehicle all at summitauto.com and if you'd like to check out more HD videos you can go to youtube.com slash summitauto. Click the bell notifications you'll get updates on the videos I do each and every day as well as having access to one of the largest catalogs of vehicle walkarounds on YouTube. In fact in a second you will see a link to subscribe to my YouTube channel the upper left a link to more RAM 2500 truck videos like this one the upper right. Link to this vehicle on our website and lower left and a link to one of our latest YouTube videos in the lower right. Click those check us out we're super excited to help you with this brand new 2023 RAM 2500 Rebel Crew Cab Short Box in olive green metallic thanks again for checking out the video remember to like subscribe and share the YouTube channel I really appreciate it thanks again


What is going on guys welcome back to the channel and I appreciate you being here today I've been one of the destiny top five video and today we have top five Epic fails of the week before we get into the video guys. We do enjoy leaving a like really helps out And if you are new around here and enjoy daily destiny to videos be sure to subscribe But let's get straight into this top five in the number five We have a clip sent in by the ghost when you actually do it Even isn't having any of it. I try I try again people Number four we have a clip sent in by go 70. This is an embarrassment to us hunters This dude should be ashamed of himself and switch your warlock Three we have a clip sent in by a scratch golf 71 When someone invades the queen breaker usually nasty things happen indeed the number two We have a clip sent in by brother bear now No doubt they would have won this round if it wasn't for his dopey teammate at the end I will slow the clip down so you can actually see what happens to In the number one we have a clip sent in by Dean goes for life when you get the wrong exotic hilarious Nice Okay, somebody bless one this That one No fucking exotic game wrong exotic fucking Kefrey's horn Yeah But guys as in this top five fails of the week if you enjoyed the video leaving a like really does help out If you guys have any amazing clips and you want to get them featured send them into the email Just linked at the top of the video description but guys we have come to the end of the video I hope you enjoyed it and hopefully I will see you on that next one


Good afternoon everyone and welcome. My name is Melissa Armo and today I thought I would do a short lecture on Trading indicators. I don't use a lot of indicators in my charts If you've watched any of my videos, you can see that I use very few indicators at all In fact, if I could trade without any and just looking at price action Then it probably would be even better But I'm in a habit now of using candlesticks and a few moving averages in my chart and I sometimes look at volume I'm really watching the price action when I trade the moving price a little jiggy that moves and then the level 2 as well as It's moving There's a lot of indicators out there You could buy indicator after indicator and learn all kinds of things But in my professional opinion in eight years of trading there is not one specific indicator that works consistently Or we would all have it and then it wouldn't work you know the makeup of the market the The interesting thing and the exciting thing about the market and the challenging thing about the market is that it's a zero-sum game From that's from Gordon Gekko's movie from the Wall Street movie There's always one winner and there's always one loser on the side of every trade So if there was some indicator that all worked and we all bought it Then who would be the other person on the opposite side of the trade that would lose so that so then it wouldn't work So I have very few indicators and I have clean charts that I can focus on the price action So if you come with me, you're not going to pay for any separate kind of software or anything like that to utilize my system It is a system that you would use you would fill out the worksheets You would do it manually you would use your brain You would have very clean charts to focus on the information. There is not one single thing out there That is an indicator that's going to tell you what to do accurately all the time for the same simple reason and the Theoretical and philosophical reason I just described the market itself is a system where there's a winners and losers and there's fewer winners than there is losers in Trading so if you want to put yourself on side of a winner Then you have to learn a skill and you have to learn that skill and you have to hone that skill and you do Whatever time and as the years go by in the months go by in the weeks go by you get better and better and you can make more money So if you are addicted to indicators, you're going to have to wean yourself off of them Because if you decide to come and take my class, it's going to be real full-on Classwork Education learning a skill set Like if you were learning a language, it's the language of charts It's the language of price that you come and you learn from me when stocks are gapping If you have questions about this you can feel free to always email me at the list of the stocks wish calm The next class is April 8th and 9th for the golden gap And you would learn what I know in that course and you can email me at Melissa at the stocks wish calm for the early World special this week. Thanks everyone. Have a great day


Thanks, Rick. And thanks for everybody to listening to our tag team here. This is how we see the big picture for the clinical translation and the different applications that can be done at different scale of activity. So we're on the left here of the smaller projects. Here is targeted clinical testing where you might have really a predetermined reason to go in and do detailed study, clearly affected families, for example. Here's where we would move that out into a healthcare setting where it's more generally available, perhaps without as many priors to begin the study. And here's truly ubiquitous application of our methods. The scale on the bottom here is a log scale, thousands, tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, and eventually millions. Now, if we want to be out here, you might say, why can't we be? Since you just heard from Eric and as you all know that we're in this world right now where we're doing research in our $700 exome and $5,000 or so whole genome world, we're doing disease discovery in projects of scale of around 1,000 to 5,000 samples, and indeed are already looking at cohorts with 10,000 samples or more. And if we follow the future, as Rick has just pointed out with the developing technologies, we're going to move out here and be in this truly large-scale range that we can extend the studies. But that is the research domain, and so we're talking now what about the clinical translation, and there's something of a lag there. So here we are more in the 1,000 to 10,000 sample range right now, ably doing projects with a few hundred samples and only in a few places getting this up into the thousands of numbers. So why is this running behind the research arena? Well, it's clearly because there are different demands in the clinical translation space. I think you all know the clear-clap environment demands stable processes with 100% precision. The research 99% precision just doesn't cut it. That adds cost and reduces throughput. One has to deal with heterogeneous samples, not going to the freezer to get 10,000 samples out of plates but getting patients in one at a time. There's individual reporting and human input required at all steps. So there really are new challenges as part of the scaling of the clinical genomics. But it's not all bad news, of course. We've got good experience now with porting activities from our larger research genomics projects into clinical labs. The optimal practice, we developed those in the context of these high throughput genomics projects. We calibrate and stabilise the methods, document them, lock them down, declare we have standard operating procedures and then deploy those in a clinical environment. And we're seeing a few examples of that now indeed happening. So we could say, indeed, with some confidence, large-scale research studies do provide this foundation for clinical translation. What are some of the actual examples of those transitions and those throwing the technology over the wall into the clinical labs? We have the whole genome and whole exome experimental techniques at the lab. There's also been really strong developments in the variant calling and validation data handling methods. Managing reference databases rationally and effectively in a clinical setting to look for pathogenic variation and bringing just all of the other tools that we've learned for secure and proper management into process management phases in the clinical lab as opposed to the experimental homes that they came from. We've also been doing this, I think, very effectively in data sharing. You're hearing a lot of talk about cloud and large network applications. Really, the drivers for this are from the research end and they're now bringing those into the clinical end as well. So we have further opportunities to accelerate translation by more lessons drawn from the research area. What's the current state? We're seeing some of these activities going on in clear-clap environments partly supported by insurance companies but still being leveraged by these development programs. We're in a state now of a fraction of pediatric cases are being solved, about a quarter of them in our hands, but I think generally that number is around there in other centres as well. And maybe 5% of cancer cases are properly guided by these activities. So we have a lot of, I guess, the ceiling is high as the point here. We have a lot of room to transfer further this knowledge over into our clinical environment. I'd say globally there's only about 10,000 cases per year that are truly going through a clinical diagnostic environment bearing all the bells and whistles we've developed in the research environment. So what are some more opportunities? Well, here's just a selection that come from us. I think you can draw from Eric's talk and from Rick's talk other examples, but we certainly have examples where sequencing a few hundred cases in a different context has shown us that there are more genetics going on than we would have expected. We did a study on cerebral palsy that showed that 25% of the cases actually had a genetic contributor, which begs the question how ubiquitous are those genetic compounders in what is sometimes regarded as not a genetic disease but may have just a few Mendelian forms, maybe there are many more, how ubiquitous is that and what could you learn from a much larger study done with full clinical annotation? Another example of that is a real one with a few cases now where we have from de novo mutation identification recognised new syndromes. One case, four cases with a de novo out of 2,500 in our local clinical cohort. Now that begs the question, what's the real frequency of this disease? We're only seeing a fraction of possible cases. There's a lot of filters. If you extrapolate out from birth rates and overall likelihood of children that are in this class and might have the disorder, there could be 200 or so of those cases here in the US and many hundreds worldwide, simply not recognised as we extrapolate that. And what about building full genetic models by looking in various syndromic conditions where we know that not every case can be solved as a simple Mendelian case but this is not necessarily the same as complex disease but where we can find through detailed clinical annotation and deep sequencing and adequate sample sizes the kind of genetic data that can build full oligogenic models that can deeper our understanding of the disease pathology, doing genetics here somewhat from the ground up. So all this becomes possible as we move into this additional clinical space. So where we get samples for such things? Well, they're not exactly on the shelf like the cohort studies and the case control studies that Eric spoke about, but they're not so far away from us either. We certainly have private health care networks that are large that are already being tapped into in these large scale ways and actually Terry, you showed some beautiful examples from other countries. I wish we could be counted up there amongst those examples. And there are state screening programs. At the family study level we certainly have advocacy groups and clinical treatment groups that can bring us literally thousands of samples for these kinds of studies. The clinical clusters of developmental delay, pre-term birth and families with multiple different cancers, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera also represent big tunities to aggregate. Another opportunity that's represented from the previous slides, the menu on the previous slides is to extend these Mendelian studies to fully describe the mutations in low side known to cause rare disease. Eric showed the nice slide of the cancer genes where if you get enough mutations you begin to understand the function of the cancer gene. We need, for these new rare syndromes, we need to aggregate the information of the mutational spectrum from the hundreds of cases that exist so we can understand the relationship between the kind of mutation and exactly how the disease manifests. We can only do that by broadening our denominator here. And lastly, we can look most broadly at these sporadic cases with build-out oligogenic models in large sets of multiple patient admissions such as regular screening for whole medical center admissions. And that would be the very outer rim of our onion skin diagram with the largest input. And that sounds like hand-waving and extremely optimistic but it's exactly also what was shown in Terry's slides that's going on in the UK and in other countries. So we hope we can speed to there. So that's the end of our tag team for a prior to discussion and I guess we can take questions now if we still have some time left in our allocation ready.