It is our final PGA DFS podcast of the 2021 calendar year, so shed a tear, but do not fear. We will return in 2022. The rhyming there definitely not intentional and there will be no more rhyming throughout the rest of the podcast. We get you set for the RSM Classic this weekend. It is a multi course event. Should be a whole lot of fun and not a bad field artist. We're going to dive on in. Get you set for some PGA DFS over on FanDuel. Welcome on into the Heat Check Fantasy podcast powered by NumberFire. That's right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network and NumberFire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire.com. Joined here as always by Brandon Gedula. He is the managing editor of NumberFire.com. Brandon, final PGA podcast of the year.  How are you doing today? I, well, I'm torn because I had three things that I could have said.  Well, the first thing I was, I was planning on saying was it's the final PGA podcast of the year. And I think it's the first time ever that I actually tweeted out the link because I learned how to do that last week. So I did that. But last week you mean you asked me yesterday where you find the links on YouTube? Yeah. Yes. A. A is that I'm proud of you. B. Okay. I think you said have no fear, shed no tear, and you could have said we'll be back next year, but you missed that opportunity. So that threw me off because that sort of trumped the YouTube link. But then also in all of this, I realized that one of my lights is not on. So in a second, I'm going to have to like leap off camera to turn on one of my lights. So I look a little bit more evenly lit. Response to B is you're now the host because you thought of that and I didn't. So take it away. Did you have a C or was C the lights thing? C was the lights thing. Okay. Okay.  You weren't going to mention that. I was going to kind of bury that one. Now, in fairness, I did, I did, I did it. Look, golf is a gentleman's game. DFS golf should by extension also be a gentleman's game. So when I saw that Charlie Hoffman withdrew, I reached out to Jim. I said, Hey, he withdrew. Jim tilted. I said, Hey, if you want to replace someone because at that point he didn't see the leaderboard because, you know, Thursdays for us during NFL season a little bit hectic, we don't know. And he picked Luke List who he liked fit under the salary cap and it didn't even matter anyway because I got demolished. So you did, you did the right thing and you deserve credit for that. However, I need to brag whenever things go well because I think you're up like seven to three in our NFL had to head to head. So like, I have to focus on the things that I have accidentally done well in. And that was one sample event in PGA. I happen to be okay. We can ignore everything else and just focus on that. And I feel like Brandon, I got to go out on a high note because again, this is our final PGA event of 2021, at least from a DFS perspective for us here on the podcast, we're not going to have one for the hero and other stuff. So final time talking here, we're still going to have a lot of NFL stuff on the podcast though quick update on that next week is Thanksgiving, which means we have three NFL podcasts in three days. The week 11 recap is Monday, Thanksgiving podcast Tuesday, and then the week 12 podcast preview is on Wednesday. Those are at 9am, 10am and then 10am on the FanDuel YouTube page. Make sure to subscribe there. Also hit subscribe on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast. Of course, week 11 is before that coming up this Thursday at 10am. We've also got UFC, NBA, NHL all right here in the same place. So despite this is the fact this is the final PGA podcast of the year, still a lot of good reasons to make sure you are subscribed to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast. Even while you're there, make sure you leave us a rating and review as well. Hey football fans, the NFL season is just over the halfway point as week 11 approaches and FanDuel is giving you the chance to get in on the action. This week FanDuel is offering fans the chance to win prizes by participating in daily fantasy football on Sundays. The prize pool is a whopping $1.7 million. So this week's FanDuel Sunday Million first place takes home $300,000.  Go to FanDuel.com today to participate in the NFL Sunday Million eligibility restrictions apply. Go to FanDuel.com or download the FanDuel app for more details. Let's dive in now to the RSM Classic. Of course, as mentioned, it is a multi course event out at Sea Island resort. The seaside course is 7,005 yards. It is a par 70. The plantation course is 7,060 yards. It is a par 72. Now all golfers will play one round in the seaside course, one round on the plantation course. Then there will be a cut after the first two rounds. Top 65 plus ties will make it there. Then those who make it through the cut will play two more rounds on the seaside course. So if we're looking at the bulk of what makes things up here, it will be the seaside course, but they will all play at least one round or one round on the plantation course as well. So seaside course, the main focus, but it is a multi course event. So Brandon, we got a lot of data here from the RSM Classic from Sea Island resort. What have you found when digging into those past events to see what matters here? Yes. If you dig back, we have shot link on three of the rounds for golfers who made the cut. So if you see a missed cut here, you're going to have one round of shot link data. So you don't want to dig too far deep into the shot link results for just a single missed cut because you don't know what happened at the plantation course. That being said, we still have four golfers who made the cut. So if you have three rounds of shot link data, you can generally tell if someone has good, like good irons over three rounds, it probably had good irons at the plantation course as well for that week. But that's just always a caveat whenever we have this multi course set up and we don't have shot link up with courses. So that's kind of one thing to keep in mind. But the second thing is we've had a lot of courses lately where you haven't had to be long. And sometimes it actually rewarded you to be more accurate. And I'm going to read the past winners here. And this is, I almost jokingly called them a list of big hitters, but I didn't even like, I don't think we could really even carry that over for like the first few. The most recent winners here are Robert Streb, who won last year and in 2015. So might make an appearance in the past history section. Two-time winner, Tyler Duncan, Charles Howell, the third, Austin Cook, Mackenzie Hughes, Kevin Kisner, Chris Kirk, Tommy Ganey, Ben Crane and Heath Slocum. So basically not the longest hitters in the field generally ever. And we have some golfers that we know we target, we bump up whenever there is a benefit to being more accurate. So that's going to be one of the big keys for me this week. And I'm sure a lot of people as well. Data Golf actually shows an above average approach shot distribution frequency from each like 25 yard range between 100 to 125, 125 to 150 and 150 to 175. So basically some of the shorter approaches, which goes back to shorter hitters. Of course, if you're longer, you'll have even shorter approaches in, which is always the case. But the approach shot shouldn't really be that difficult for the shorter hitters. Whenever we have shorter hitters, we have more of the field in play, so that leads to volatility. And looking at the past winning scores, effectively around 20 under, that leads to more volatility. So that's going to be the name of the game for me this week. I want accurate drivers, but I also want to kind of be open to the fact that really anything can happen at the top of this leaderboard. Yeah. And I think we see that in the winners. You see a weird list of names there for sure. And that says to me that there are a lot of unknowns this week. We can't get too tied to certain golfers because there's no such thing as a short thing ever at PGADFS, but especially for this week. I think that what you were talking about is also why, you know, typically when we go through the key stats, I will say that I'm going to go with good drives gain. That's not the case this week. I'm going to go with fairways gain specifically over good drives gain because of just like how much it's skewed towards the accuracy guys. So typically I'll go with good drives gain with the intention being, hey, you know, there are some guys who don't care if they put it just off the fairway and stuff like that usually. But I think this week, accuracy does matter. Like accuracy is actually the key stat for me. And that does pop up in the past data as well. So I'm looking at fairways gained approach and then also around the green and then putting on Bermuda are the ones I'm keying in on any deviations for you from that list. Approach, accuracy, birdie or better rate and stroke scheme putting on Bermuda are my key stats. Alrighty. So we're going to break down golfers who have done well with that in mind in just one second. And let's start things off here with Kevin Kisner. You mentioned Kisner is one of the winners here and also fits the mold of being guys who we bump up on courses like this. Kisner is 10-7. His salary is definitely not low. What are you seeing with this passage rate at this event? Yeah. And just a bit of a spoiler alert. When we talk about bookmaker odds and movement, he is really the largest mover that I've seen from 41 to 1. Let me get this right because it's a pretty... We value accuracy. We value truth on this podcast. Hey, just like we're playing in this RSM classic field, we value accuracy this week. Oh man. You're on fire today. Maybe I am the host. I don't know. Please don't ever make me the host of anything. Yeah. From 41 to 1 on Fandall Sportsbook to 30 to 1. Everyone else, this is just basically what we've seen in recent, like probably for like the past year, everyone kind of opens a little bit shorter than they all drift. A few guys stay the same. Maybe one or two guys really makes a change. Kisner is getting back pretty heavily. The salary of 10,700 being very, very affordable this week on Fandall. It leaves me to believe that Kisner will have some popularity, especially because he's the former winner. Back in 2016, since then he did miss two cuts but has three top seven finishes and his past four starts at this setup. So in total since 2012, win second, fourth, fourth, seventh, 20th just sorted by best results and then three missed cuts. So not bad by any means. Kisner did win recently at the Wyndham back in mid August since then he has gone cut at the Northern Trust 66 that the BMW cut at the Shriners 54th at the CJ Cup. So not the best results, but he's gone back to a course where he's done well and he's got that recent win. But the bigger concern is that the missed cuts recently have come with really bad iron play, which is kind of what Kevin Kisner can give us. Of course, I think Kisner it's probably fair to say like, hey, he's very good at golf in the right setups in the right field. This seems like something that we can look at and say other courses just don't really suit him. So it's going to bog down his data now that he's at a course where he can play well. He's going to be back on track. But his recent form entering this event when he's had a lot of good finishes is actually a bit better than it is now. Look at the past five, even past 10 events, which includes the win. Like, it's not it's not that amazing for Kisner right now. I don't think it's as simple as like he's guaranteed for a 10th place finish, you know, top 10 this week. So as Kisner popping up for you at all, and do you presume that hopefully he's too chalky anyway? Yeah, I think with the way the odds have moved, I would bet that he does want to be pretty popular, which, you know, I get for the reasons that you mentioned. But also, you mentioned the form now relative to what it was previously. Let's look back to 2020 specifically when he finished second in that one. He was adding 2.3 total stroke scheme per event over his previous 10 rounds, according to Fantasy National. Entering this one in his previous 10, he's at negative 1.3. So that's a three shot difference. And there are some really, really bad events in the profile. You talked with the miscuts at the Shriners, the Northern Trust. The CJ Cup was a no-cut event, and he lost 5.1 approach there. So the approach is really bad. It's a bad when you adjust for field as well. And this is not like a bad field. It's not like a star-studded field by any means, but it's not a bad field. So I think it's a volatile event, which means we want to try harder to avoid the chalk. I have reason to believe that he may be not the best chalk. And I think that I can get to, guys, I believe in a lot more by getting 600-ish more dollars in salary up, and then maybe being a bit less balanced. And I think that that's kind of where I'd want to be over using Kisner at 10.7. Is that kind of where you're at too? Yeah. This field is about as good as the Houston Open was last week at Myacoba as well. I mean, a tinge worse according to data golf's field strength numbers, but still good. All those three fields were effectively... So the past three fields we've been looking at effectively like the average golfer in those is about the average worldwide golfer. So it's not like it's the Bermuda. It's not like it's just a terrible, terrible field. And that is a little bit damning for Kisner. I'm not trying to knock him in. I feel like every time he comes up, we end up more down on him than we'd like to be. But it's just a game theory play this week. And again, it always feels a little bit underwhelming to say, well, I just play the guys that nobody else likes this week. But they're honestly is like, we have pivots at every salary point, I think. And according to... No, this is not... Oh wait, this is updated. Well, Fancier Sports says it was updated Wednesday, November 10th, but it's showing for the RSM. So I'm assuming it's accurate because Kevin Kisner does lead in tags thus far. And there's a heavy correlation in general, I would assume, between tags and who's getting bet. And Kisner checking both those boxes, mid-range salary, good course history. I think it's week where we probably jump off that train and potentially instead good Web Simpson because we can get some better recent form, good course history. Obviously the salary is very different. Let's have a web here. It's a non-distance course. Web is in the field automatically. I think we have to slot him in here like out of obligation just like in our contract. But Web has done well here in the past. He's played here seven total times. Six if you ignore a withdrawal that he had. And Web has been top 10 in three of the six events. Two of those were recent. He was third in 2018. He was runner-up in 2019, gained 6.6 strokes T-degree in his rounds at seaside in both of those events. Plus we know the Web is a very good remuda putter. So the T-degree numbers are not misleading. It's just a good all-around golfer. The more recent stuff for Web is not dazzling, but it's also not actively bad. He was 14th at the CJ cup, despite some rougher ball striking there. His approach play ranks 30 at the past 50 rounds. I think that Web is probably a tiny, tiny, tiny bit over salary at 11.9. But I also get it. And I'm not opposed. I just think there might be some other guys in this range I like to smidge more. I think that Web is more legitimate relative to the salary than Kisner. But I think given the odds, given the salary, I think this might be a good event where maybe I don't use Web Simpson despite the fact that it's like a Web-type course. Where are you at with Web right now? He's also getting a lot of buzz on fan share. I think it's probably going to wind up where Kisner is potentially the most popular golfer despite not being the highest salary golfer just because the salary feels low for what the public probably would presume for Kisner. Just coming back to a place where he's won and everything like that. As for Simpson, I'm with you. I like him. He's not my favorite at the top. And I actually sincerely like a more balanced approach this week because the field does drop off. Pretty sure last week we said after like 96 it started to fall off. I see that again this week. The low 9000 is not too terrible, but for the most part there is a drop off around 97 for me. So I really want to be back up in like the low tens. And so I do think that it's a one or like one and a half stud main lineup week. And for that reason, I don't think I'm going to try to GM in Web Simpson. Plus my favorite golfer of the week, which is or who is not which, Louis Weastazen. He's the number one for me. I don't anticipate getting to like Louis plus web in my lineups. So I think by default, I'm going to be a little bit light on web. I also like Louis. We'll talk about him later on in the player picks. I think that he is the best golfer in this field right now. I think that my second golfer might be a bit more high salary than yours based on the conversation. I think there's like a couple tiers at the top and I want to try to be in those tiers. And I think part of the reason why I am inclined to do that is because I don't think there's a big gap at all between the low 9000 range and the mid 8000 range. I'm not typically a guy who loves the mid 8000 range. I think this week it's actually a bit more lively. We'll talk about some guys who may fit that pretty well later on. So we're using the same principles of thought, but having slightly modified takeaways from that. So what, who are you thinking? We both like Louis. Yeah. That much is known because Sally's 11-7. You said you think that your second golfer in your main lineup is going to be higher than my second golfer. What range are you thinking? Harris English at 11-4. Okay. Because I'm either on Connors at 11-5 or Henley at 11-3. Okay. What I'm saying is I don't think it's a Louis plus Cam Smith, Louis plus Webb, or Louis plus Schaeffler week. I can get behind that then. I think I agree with that pretty definitively. So let's move now to some lower salary guys because again it's a kind of wide open event. A lot of guys can compete here. And one of the guys who has done so is the aforementioned Robert Streb, a two-time winner here, $9400. That's not the best range. So Brandon, can we turn to Streb in that range at 9-4? So he's a two-time winner. The ten-fingered grip, it just always bugs me watching Streb. But you can't really knock the two wins. So he's missed two of the past four cuts here. So it's like not all great. Sometimes you see great course history where it's like this dude's top 15 every year. Sometimes he's got two wins, but he's also missing some cuts and it's more of the latter here. But the real reason I gave pause is because Streb's kind of playing OK right now. He finished 27th at the Shriners, 9th at the CJ Cup, 62nd at the Zozo, 7th last week in Houston. He's an accurate driver. He's got a good short game. He's obviously done well enough here whenever he's put it all together. And right now he might be putting it all together. So I'm not there, but I'm not that far away just because, again, you and I don't really put a whole lot of stock into course history. But at a place where you've won twice, you have to feel good. There's a big subjective part of golf that's intangible. And he's golfing pretty well right now. So I don't know. I'm not going to play him, but he wasn't as easy to write off as I anticipated it would be. Well, I think the other thing too is we're talking about Kisner and his form now relative to what it was in 2020. And Streb's is better. If you look at his previous 10 events again via Fantasy National, his previous 10 events heading into 2020 or 2021, he was at negative 3.2 total strokes gained per event. He's at negative 0.5 now. So still a negative, but less negative. And he's at 1.4 strokes gained per event in his previous five. You mentioned the good finish of the CJ cup in the Houston Open. Wasn't getting there via approach, which we do prefer, but he was gaining everywhere else. And now maybe better positioned off the tee than he was elsewhere. So I don't think he's a cross-off. Like, will I use him? I'm probably going to try to avoid this tier in general. So like, I wouldn't be shocked if I didn't. But like, I'm not totally against it, I guess is what I'd say.  Form's terrible. Don't, don't go there. But like, it's, and he's putting, so like he's putting well, but not, he's not carrying himself to good finishes just with the putter. The tee to green game, mostly neutral, you know, good enough off the tee numbers and should stick with the breakdown this week. I'll take like a lost shot from approach if it comes with like positives everywhere else. Yeah. It's so long as you're not the minus 6.1 like he's had at the BMW, but boy, I thought, I thought, I mean, forgive me for not tracking Robert's travel a little bit closer, but there's kind of some stuff to like right now. Streb tracker on Twitter is not run by Brandon. If you actually look at the past two measured events, Streb has gained 2.4 and 1.5 off the tee. Again, you know, not a distance guy. It's kind of weird to see that the last time he gained 1.5 off the tee and consecutive measured events. I'm just going to scroll. I don't have not found where this is yet. I am back to 2019 and still scrolling. I am back to 2017 and still scrolling. I have not found it yet. I'm not sure the last time that Robert Streb gained 1.5 off the tee in consecutive events. It was 2015, the PGA championship in the Northern Trust. That was the last time Robert Streb gained 1.5 off the tee in consecutive events. And now we go to an event where he's better positioned off the tee. I'm not saying like, hey, we should trust this because like, you know, we talk about how age stuff like that. You don't expect massive strides from older guys. I'm not performing, but like, I'd rather have them be good than bad in a small sample. So that's where I'm at with Streb. I think that that given that range being not great, that is something to keep in mind. Now, I mentioned that I like the mid and low 8,000 more than usual. One guy who is down there is Matthew Niesmith. And we talk about Niesmith a lot. It's a guy we turn to when distance doesn't matter as much. And he's shown that that approach is viable here at the RSM. Niesmith has been here twice. He finished top 15 both times. He did putt decently well in both, but the ball striking was pretty good too. He gained 5.4 strokes tee to green last year, gained 4.1 back in 2019. Again, that's across the three measured rounds at the seaside course. Niesmith has been okay recently. He did gain 6.2 in the approach at the Fortinet and 6.4 at the Shriners. So the pop weeks are there and that's important. He hasn't shown upside yet and that matters even for value plays. Now, I initially thought the Navy's Niesmith wouldn't really be a guy who pops for me, but like having the ability to get 6 strokes in approach in multiple recent events, I think that's kind of interesting 82. So I'm receptive to Niesmith in that low 8,000 range. I think I like some more guys, other guys more than him, but I think that Niesmith is at least on my radar. Where does he have for you? You mentioned the upside. That's kind of an issue for me whenever I look at Niesmith. I think, and this is something I would love to come up with some time for once we have the break from PGA is to look at sort of predicting upside and looking even closer at ranges of outcomes for golfers. His Bermuda putting is really by far his best surface. It's almost neutral, but with that, according to Fantasy National, he has gained strokes putting in just 38% of his past 50 rounds. And as much as we want to knock putting and say it's random, like it's not random, it's a skill to putt well. It's a skill to have a good baseline of putting, but it's also kind of a skill to be able to break through and have positive putting rounds. That way you stay relevant. And we've seen missed cuts from him recently specifically. So for Niesmith, I don't know if there's enough with the putter yet to want to buy in to the ability to gain strokes with his approach play, which is a big deviation from the way that I used to look at things where it was like, hey, he's got irons, and if he just puts it together with a putter, which he can. So over his past like 10 events, he's got two events with at least three strokes gain putting, but that's also not really enough to make a strong run unless you are leading the field and strokes gained heat or green. Yeah, I think that's fair. And again, even 82, we do need upside. Like we want guys who have the ability to control. Yeah, every spot in your lineup you want to rush to a goal for what you think can win. You want six darts at the dart board as opposed to five. That's just the way to view it here. And Niesmith, half a dart at best. And I think that that's that's a fair criticism. And there are other guys in the mid 8000 range. I do like again, not crossing off Niesmith. I'm okay receptive to him, but there are other guys I like more. We'll talk about later on during the show. But first, let's talk about current form golfers who are coming in here with noteworthy form entering this event. One of whom is Adam Scott. He is 10 nine right in that kids in a range. And if kids are going to be the chalk this week, that means that other guys may be viable pivots. What do you see with Adam Scott here at 10 nine for the RSM?  And we think like we're making the next step like a Max Homa, which who I do love this week. But we also have Adam Scott, right? Like what do you do with Adam Scott? What do you do with like a Web Simpson this week? I think they both kind of fit in that same mold to some degree, but Scott with the much easier salary to get to at 10 nine. He has had plenty of relevancy in tougher fields than this one since August. He was second at the Wyndham championship, 14th the BMW PGA championship, 35th at the Shriners, fifth at the CJ cup and 54th last week. Now, according to data golf, he is fifth in this field in true strokes game per round over his past 20 rounds. He has eighth in ball striking in that span over the past six months. So a larger sample. He's seventh overall. And all of this is to say, yeah, Adam Scott relative to this field, a good golfer and still a good golfer and still probably worth a salary of 10,900. But he doesn't really have like that. Yeah, I want to play a lot of Adam Scott this week because he's Adam Scott and we have these other options we can go to like a Scotty Schaeffler. Like, I don't know. I think Scott's in a pretty good position. I want some balance this week. And I first of all, I'm much more inclined to play Adam Scott than Kevin Kisner. But having Adam Scott available at 10 nine just really opens me up to saying, Hey, maybe Adam Scott will be my second highest salary golfer because he seems a little bit under salary. Any thoughts on Scott? Yeah, I think that he makes a lot of sense. I am receptive to him as well. I think that the question I would have is, do I go with Adam Scott over? I think specifically Taylor Gooch, Taylor Gooch, the other guy in that range, who have a really hard time passing up in an event where, you know, he's not, I mean, Gooch is not like an accurate guy off the tee, but like another Scott, right? But if it's an event where I'm going to have to care less about you being good off the tee, that moves Taylor Gooch up a lot. So I might be inclined to go Gooch over Scott.  Or do you like both enough or you want to avoid it? I like both. Historically, I get trounced in head to heads, but I'll take it. Okay. Just because I, and I should have had, if I had the salaries pulled up, Taylor Gooch would have been a perfect example of like, this is the time of year where we're like, Hey, let's play Taylor Gooch and not Adam Scott. Yeah, yeah. It's like, is that dumb? I think there's a case to be made for both. And that's just goes back to like a bit of a more modified balance where if I didn't like Louis so much, I probably could be talked into like starting a lineup with Taylor Gooch and Adam Scott and just peppering this range. So for the sake of my argument, I will take the Scott over Gooch bet. But I think both are fine. I think that me taking that head to head is not saying that I don't like Adam Scott. It's more. So I just like Taylor Gooch. So that's where I'm at there. Let's bump up back to the studs here and talk about Scottie Sheffler as a guy with good current form. He is co-favorite with Web Simpson at 14 to one. And you can tell why when you look at what he's done recently. Sheffler at the Houston Open gained 3.9 strokes off the tee, gained 3.6 an approach and 3.9 around the green. That'll work. That'll definitely play. There are some holes though. Sheffler, not the most accurate guy out the tee. He's 118th and fairways gained 50 first and good drives again. So even when you account for situations where he's trying to put on the fairway, not always doing so, could us in trouble there? But Sheffler overcame that to finish fifth year back in 2019. And that was before Sheffler truly, truly broke out and became the golfer he is right now. So in that upper range, I prefer Web over Sheffler. But I think Louis Westhasen, we've kind of talked about before, is probably my favorite guy. So let's just talk about this upper range in general and break down that tier. We talked about Sheffler, talked about Web, talked about Westhasen. Is it Louis pretty definitively number one for you up there? Yeah, it's Louis for me. He's the best overall fit. He's number one in my combo model and I just don't really see a case for anyone else to get that close to him, especially at the salary of 11.7. I could see the case if Sheffler and Louis' salaries were swapped. I do think too that Sheffler will carry some popularity after the good finish last week. So I don't see it particularly close between like I have Louis in his own tier.  He's a virtual lock for my main lineups and just the guy that I will most likely be heaviest on. He is the most likely winner according to my win simulation model. I'm probably not going to get away from Louis and as much as you can make the case for Sheffler, Web, Cam Smith, who I historically love, even Corey Connors, if we want to throw him into that conversation, I don't think any of them necessarily do that much more than a Harris English, a Russell Henley, a Taylor Guter and Adam Scott this week. I agree with that too. Louis is number one. He is in my bobble hat lineup as I have a built right now the head to head that we do each week. I think that Louis makes too much sense. So I can talk a lot about Sheffler, Web, et cetera, et cetera. But like to me, it really is about Louis, especially under the assumption those guys are more popular in an event where we want to try to deviate from what everyone else is doing, given their betting odds, et cetera, et cetera. So I think that we can say Louis to us grades out really well. Now let's go back down to the mid-8000 range. Could be a guide note here in an event where our roster construction will bring us down to that range. Hogy has a lot of current form. I just don't know what to make of it. So Brandon, you talked me through what we've seen with Hogy recently and whether he is someone we can turn to in this mid-8000 range. Yes, she's got a pretty full card so far in 2021. Seven total, or in the 2022 season, I guess. Everyone's played a lot in 2021 by now. Cell sheet says 2021 for last years of it and it trips me up when I look at it every time because I don't know what year to call this. More dead with it after this week. A New Year's blessing in November. In the new PGA tour season Hogy has played seven times. He's made six cuts. Two top 20s, so not phenomenal there but 8400 is the salary so that's reasonable. Also, not being bad is that Hogy ranks first in true strokes gained from approach over his past 20 rounds according to Datagolf. He's 12th over the past three months so even a larger sample top 12 in iron play once adjusted for field strength and over the past year my data has him in the 88th percentile in this field and adjusted iron play. He's not done well at this event but things kind of set up well for him because he's accurate enough but did he pop up for you at all in the value range whenever you were studying up down there? Yeah, so I think that we're talking about upside in the lower salary guys. I think Hogy has that because he's shown it previously. He's shown that he can cook a little bit. He should set up well for this event I know he hasn't yet but I would say the past calendar year so Hogy's probably been playing better golf than he was entering those events it's probably taken at least a half a step up from where he was previously. Hogy can hit fairways you mentioned the approach played me very good and it's been very good for the past more recent sample. He's translated that to decent finishes but not great but I think that the decent but not great an indictment saying he doesn't have upsides because he hasn't shown it yet in that range because he's seen it previously. So I think that Hogy in that mid 8000 range is probably one of the guys I'd be okay with not my favorite down there but I think that I will likely wind up with him in my player pool realistically so I'm on board I think that Hogy works as we put about you. Yeah, um this is the you never like to see this but he's not in the 91st percentile in opportunities gained over the past 50 rounds that's fantasy national stat for birdie chances 27th percentile in birdie or better rate gained so you know it we've seen worse we've seen worse splits but that's a little too reminiscent of myself to want to go all in um but again like accurate driver good irons good irons currently irons long term if I had to play Hogy in my head to head against you I wouldn't hate it yeah but I think I'm going to try to avoid that and I'll take some sacrifices at the top but if I can stay you know around like the 88 range and above yeah I would prefer to do that but Hogy definitely in the conversation if I need my extra flexibility if it really makes everything else work I'm okay with that too I think that he's at least in the consideration set for that type of format let's talk about Alex Smalley he's $9,100 one of the newcomers having played mostly on the Canadian tour and the corn fairy tour thus far but the numbers are good for Smalley when you adjust for field strength and he's played decently well the swing season Smalley's played five events in the swing season he has made the cut in four of those that does include back to back top 15 finishes at the Bermuda and at the Houston open Smalley if you look at data golf's true stroke which does adjust for field strength is between Keegan Bradley our guy and Troy Merritt in like those are relevant golfers guys we consider Smalley seems decently well rounded he's $9,100 Brandon you tend to know these guys better than I do these guys transitioning from other tours what's your read on Smalley and is he worth a shot at $9,100 yeah I wouldn't talk anyone out of him for this week not the most amazing course fit but definitely not somebody bumped down too much the PGA tour event data on him is pretty solid basically field level once adjusted for everything and you know honestly that gives me like a like a Lonto Griffin vibe with the just sort of like right around field average and everything doesn't stand out in anything yet I'm not a very accurate 65th percentile so he was someone I very strongly considered I didn't quite get there myself but definitely not somebody that I would talk anyone else out of for this week just probably not making it there for me because I would rather bump down save some salary with like a Taylor Moran Chad Ramey or you could use his clone Lonto Griffin himself who I will be talking about later on because I think Lonto is also in play for this week in that same range so we'll talk about that later on the first let's take a look at what the bookmakers are saying for this RSN Classic Scotty Schaeffler and Webb Simpson are the co-favorites at Fandall Sports Book they are 14 to 1 Cameron Smith is 17 to 1 then there is a tier drop down to Louis Westay is 25 to 1 Corey Connors and Russell Handley are 27 to 1 Harris English and Kevin Kisner are both 30 to 1 and then Joaquin Neiman is 31 to 1 Adam Scott, Alex Noran round at the top group they are both 36 to 1 so we're talking about the top 3 guys in Schaeffler, Webb etc etc what are you viewing as being the top of the second tier we'll put Louis as being in the top 3 I mean you could put Cameron Smith there I guess but like let's say the top 4 after Louis in that second tier who's your favorite guy there um that would be at salary that would be Russell Handley okay I like it followed up by Corey Connors okay I think that, I mean I don't know how deep you want me to go but no I think that that's fine um where are you at with with Harris English do you think that he's definitively like far behind Connors and Handley or no no and that's the thing is like this is a week where you give me Handley and above I'm not going to put Neiman in that list just because not the best course fit but what how many names is this forms also a little funky for Neiman 7, the top 7 golfers Handley English, Connors Louis, Cam Smith, Webb, Scheffler I'm fine with any of them and I think that I agree with you and I think that my takeaway is I want 2 of those 7 I think that I'm okay being in the low end of that but I want 2 of those 7 in my lineups yeah that's fine um my combo model which accounts for like everything I look at has all of those guys top 10 aside from Harris English who's 14th but Harris English also seems to be not getting a whole lot of buzz if I recall correctly so he will be getting buzz later I'm fine with uh yeah no he's up there but um either way we're still getting buzz he's just a little bit more Handley's kind of the outlier from a tag standpoint according to fans here so he's already I mean he's 3rd in my combo model outright so I'm cool with that like I'm just gonna play who I think it is gonna be the least popular out of those and that includes English even though I have him a little bit lower than everyone else sure what about for a head to head or a cash game are you leaning towards Handley there? Louis Handley okay save the most salary I can there right um again I for my strict head to head standpoint I do want to make sure that I get Louis in there most likely and I know I was open to the idea of starting a lineup with like a Gooch or a Scott or having that be my second salary golfer um but I canly enough I do I'm with you where I do think there's a bit of a drop off although for what it's worth Gooch is 6th in my combo model so maybe I should be a little bit more open to that what about you? I think the Gooch would be like the exception potentially I mean Scott too but like I do think that like you get there is a fall off I don't know it's trade off I think that I'd prefer to get those two if I have to settle for Gooch or a Scott that's fine but I think I prefer to get one two of those top seven each lineup we talked about Kisner's being guy who's odds of shifting a lot he opened at 41 he's now bet that down to 30 and that just was a red flag because it could mean that he's getting buzz could translate to popularity in DFS who else fits in the Kisner bucket of having odds that have shortened since things opened I'm surprisingly Russell Henley from 31 to 27 but the fan share data is not quite there Luke List 80 to 75 Henrik Norlander 100 to 90 again a lot of golfer's odds have just lengthened very few have shortened aside from those four so I think it's at least relevant if we talk about those whose odds have stayed the same which is kind of noteworthy in itself. Corey Connors stayed at 27, Joachim Neiman at 31, Justin Rose at 50, Sheamus Power at 55 so Henrik Norlander is someone I tend to like he is $8800 he actually opened at 120 when I pulled so he's been 120 to 90 24th in fairways gained he is 16th in approach this short game not ideal are you into Norlander this week? he's fine just not enough to be above some other golfer's in that same salary tier that includes virtually like everyone down there is like 120 to 1 at this point but Emiliano Grillo at 9000 Taylormore 87, Chad Ramey 86 and our guy Shes Revy 86 as well I would rank all of them above Norlander okay so Norlander not getting buzzed for Brandon Brandon's attention yet despite the heading odd shortening to apologize on the group text Troy Merritt as well I know Henrik I'm sorry we'll make it up to you eventually we'll be back on it's me in my process it's always Brandon let's be honest here let's move on to weather here and weather is noteworthy do you want to talk about the lower salary guys? I thought you just listed all of them did you just list all of them? no because I preferred all right well list me the lower I thought that was an extension of saying that he moved go ahead for anyone not watching Jim put up an overlay that said we're going back to bookmaker odds yeah because I do like an annotation on the YouTube stream that says here here's we're on the rundown in case you're like skimming through the YouTube video and you want to see where we're at I had already shifted to weather because I thought that you'd covered it basically by talking about those guys and now we're back to bookmaker odds so if someone's like scrolling through YouTube like looking at the whole preview you're like these guys were on weather now they're back to bookmaker odds this is treason and I just wanted to align with them I wanted to speak to our fans know my audience and say back to bookmaker odds so they're not totally confused yeah we'll get the the Pepe Silvia meme going trying to follow the structure of this podcast lower salary golfers who's odds that stand out to me which is definitely not a question you ask me you always ask me that Brandon Grace is 75 to 1 at 9000 Troy Merritt a name I was going to throw in above Newerlander as well for me in my rankings he's 90 to 1 same as Danny McCarthy Henrik Newerlander and Keith Mitchell and then we also have our guy Hank Leviota again 100 to 1 salary is 7900 he is the only golfer below 9000 I would even consider for this week I don't think you have to dig that far for this week and then 18 more golfers have odds of 120 to 1 with salaries below 9000 so it's one of those weeks old Hank Leviota has also gotten buzz because he was 120 to 1 he's now 100 so that's noteworthy I don't think I'm there but like you know I get what you're saying he's the only you consider down below 8000 I don't think I'd use him but like I think he'd be the top guy there yeah he's the only one below 8000 I would consider I don't think I have to get there like I said but we've been on Leviota for a while and I think that's good process that the results just haven't followed so Keith Mitchell is a name that's interesting there he's $8500 this is not a Keith Mitchell course Keith Mitchell can hit some tanks are you into Mitchell at all here from an upside perspective because like bigger players always have an advantage it's just more so it can be mitigated some places that enough to get you on Mitchell at 85 or no I mean it's it would be if I didn't like some other names better like he's above field average in fairways gander over the past 50 rounds it's more that the irons long term haven't been quite good and that's typically what holds him back so he's fine but you know it's there's just a lot of names down here and I don't think he can make the cut okay do I have your permission to go to weather now yeah you do okay well let's do that and go to weather and talk about that because it actually is kind of noteworthy for this week given that it is a two course event Friday looks pretty windy winds getting as high as 16 miles per hour tiny bit lower in the morning the wind is but for the most part it's just windy all day Saturday and Sunday are the same so 15 mile per hour winds for three out of the four days they're doing a two course event the one day that it isn't as windy is Thursday Brandon we have two different courses here and courses played differently with wind are you tempted to course stack prioritizing golfers on the course more prone to the wind I'm assuming the seaside course that could be a dumb assumption but like I'm assuming it's the seaside course are you tempted to stack courses and use the guys on the course more prone to wind on Thursday when things are calmer any wind splits do how does wind impact things for your view of this event yeah you can look up wind splits on fantasy national if you want I think the real takeaway though is taking a chance on stacking courses which probably long term is not the worst strategy for multi-course setups so that's something that I would definitely consider I don't think I'd get there in a head to head because I still want to play my favorite process plays unless it's a lot of coin flips and then you know stack on the right the right but like the just stacking the course that I think looks better yeah I will note again it's not like a significant difference it's like a eight mile per hour wind on Thursday versus 15 on Friday but that can make a difference it can feel that for sure so I think I would check out T times see if you want to consider that that's an angle to play and it could help you deviate from the chop once again so keep that in mind when filling out your lineups once T times are out okay let's go now into our player picks here for the rsm classic based on the salaries over at fan duel dot com Brandon who do you have in the upper tier I'm gonna go with Louis he's the most likely winner good salary of 11,700 most most likely winner according to my wind simulation model I should clarify um 81st percent how in fairways gained just the best long term golfer in the field it's pretty it's a pretty deep field overall um and again that kind of goes back to the balance so I like any savings I can get at the top um that includes Louis 11,7 yeah I think the Louis is the best player in the field I've got those my top guys well I think that for a cash game I put Louis in there first and for tournaments based on early vibe I don't think I'll have to worry too much about you know his being too popular so I think it's Louis number one in all formats and go from there speaking to going from there Brandon who is the second player you're plugging in in this upper range Russell Henley 11,3 I think he's just the best value at his salary outside of Louis among those at the top 96 percent tile and fairways or strokes gain fairways through greens so basically we're moving off the T play which I think is doable this week 70 at the Houston open almost called it the U.S. Open um top 25 and three top 25 and three was past four starts just that you know someone that we can bump up at a course like this that benefits from accuracy 89th percentile there over the past 50 rounds 11th percentile and distance gain so you can actually use that kind of to look at which golfers are potentially still you know even average off the T with strokes gained but who really get bogged down from a lack of distance so you know Henley should really benefit this week so we have a Taylor Gooch versus Adam Scott head to head do you want a Russell heavily versus Harris English head to head I don't but I'll take it okay I think I think they're both in play okay well I'll take that and go with Harris English my second high salary guy I think that Louis plus English does make me a bit top heavy at least top heavier than I've been doing recently but I do think that that top tier is worth prioritizing for me English another well-rounded guy 51st and fairways gained 31st and approach 10th around the green 12th and Bermuda putting the past 100 rounds per fantasy national English did withdraw at the CJ cup and he did miss the cut the Shriners but the Shriners one was because he lost six strokes putting in two rounds it's not great he actually gained 3.5 T to green in those two rounds so just disastrous on the greens I will trust the larger sample with English saying that he's a good putter and take him here at 11 three brand any final thoughts for you on this top range before moving to the mid range no I think we really covered this one English's last for me but he's still very much in play if we find out that he's got the right tea time split and just isn't that popular yep I think that's the weight of you things this week if we've got pivots you should use them if you must based on the volatility this event and based on our ability to project we populous we've now to the mid range who are you starting off with in the 10,000 9,000 range well I'm gonna go right above that with Joel Damon at 10,100 I think he's just too good to gloss over but doesn't really quite fit within the context of the top seven but Damon 10,1 max homa at 10,3 you get the buddy combo there or the frenemy whatever they got going on and Brandon Todd at 10,4 I'll make we're seeing though seeing those names there really make me want to go a little bit more balanced this week but Damon 79 percentile and adjusted to your green over the past year 86 percentile and fairways gained over the past 50 rounds coming in with a fifth at the Houston open 45th at the mycoba may three of his past four cuts at this event I'm back on Damon you mentioned homa he's 10,3 Damon is 10,1 do you think you'll be able to get back up here because of the mid 8,000 range because that's the trouble I'm having if I'm building out my lineup right now I'm not quite able to get back up there I can get to the high 9,000 range getting back up to the 10,000 range a tiny bit tougher for me unless I were to go Gooch or Scott over someone like English or Henley so this is why I need to really think along and hard about the second golfer that I go with and that's what initially drew me toward like an Adam Scott but if I go the whole way down to Brandon Todd and I play Louis Todd homa Damon I love that start I've 8750 that puts me right I might have been that range where I still like some golfers in the upper eights and I won't feel bad about any golfer but I still also don't feel like I'm just rostering every golfer yoyoing the 10,000 range and going extremely balanced so if I yeah maybe I'll have to play Hank if I want to go extra heavy at the top but Hank's viable so that makes sense the guy I think I'm turning to when I need to save that $200 from Damon on down is the power Sheamus was unkind to me last week miss the cut but I was due to bad putting he was at negative point four strokes to do greens not a positive but also fine in general power is not a bad putter he ranks 31st from Bermuda he is also 24th in approach 12th around the green he has struggled this event in the past but power seems like he's taken a step up recently so I think $9,900 is a forgiving seller for someone a decent skill set so despite the miss cut I am back on Sheamus power this week Brandon what about you? Yeah I'm back there as well he's an other to consider for me so just basically top five in this range but not top two good irons good Bermuda putting good form overall which is why we've been on him the past few weeks. Alright sticking the mid range here your second golfer is in the Keith Mitchell fold where it's not a Keith Mitchell course but it may not matter who you got here. I'm a go with last. Let's do it. There's just again I it's hard to like say people have upside if they don't really putt that well but we've seen list with good finishes despite his putting being whatever it is he contended for a minute last week finished 11th you'll take that at the salary which was 84 last week it's up to 93 this week but I think that's fair 7th at the Zozo missed cut at the and two other respectable fields comparable fields to this one he has two top 15 finishes at this event in five tries and like yeah we know the putting is an issue but the ball striking is just too good to hate on to the point where I wouldn't consider. Yeah I think that list can put it on the fairway at times like he if you look at his his good drive number I'm pretty sure it's better than his accuracy number so it's more and he's good around the green too so it's not all short game just the putting is really really bad but in the same range we got Lonto Griffin I alluded to him before and Lonto has been kind of weird recently he made the cut but struggled over the weekend he was still open his approach play was rough in August and September but he's 92 and in a pretty poor low 9000 range I'll take some slides to Lonto Griffin here he's been he has shown up at times recently he gained 6.9 total strokes at the Zozo where there was no shot link he also gained 4.4 t to green at the Shriners finished 6 things some really good putting there and the putting can happen too because Lonto ranks 22nd in Bermuda putting he's also 41st in approach it is kind of a bet that he returns to old form a bit but I think I trust Lonto Griffin enough to make that bet so Lonto Griffin to me is someone I'm into at 92 Brandon where does Lonto who's typically your guy great out for you this week? He grades out moderately well not enough to want to make him a core play not enough to sort of build around him or feel like I want to get back up to him from the upper 8000 range so you know it's Lonto I think I want a little bit more juice but again he's a good putter and that is very much a key part of the recipe to having a good finish so I'm not going to talk you out of Lonto but I won't be playing him this week myself I think that's very fair too and I think my overall goal is to avoid that range but if I'm there I would I think Lonto is probably the guy who would stand out most to me let's move now to the value range guys at $9000 and lower Brandon who are you turning to down there? I'm going to keep the awful putting theme going here with Emilia Aguilo at 9000 he played the RSM last year finished 18th while gaining two strokes off the tee 2.7 strokes from approach across his three measured shot link rounds that's his path to success because it's not putting although on Bermuda it's not too bad over his past 100 rounds he's lost an average of .11 strokes per round it's not really red flag territory at that rate so I think that there's enough to get back on Grillo this week I think with Grillo it's because he's become less of an outlier in the positive sense so it's just becoming you're not putting in a negative 2 as the baseline or the hope in the putting for Grillo I think that's a big thing opposite of the spectrum is Denny McCarthy and I actually think Denny McCarthy is interesting this week I'm not usually on McCarthy but for $8600 I kind of think I will be this week McCarthy penalized less with a non-distance course he's great on putting all surfaces in his best he does have an 8th place finish here in the past that was back in 2019 so McCarthy not the specific I typically use nor the archetype I typically use but I think he does make sense here again Griffin's typically your guy so is McCarthy and not your guy but a guy you tend to use more than I do what are your thoughts on Denny McCarthy for this week specifically as in I use him one out of every 100 lineups as opposed one out of every two years whereas I'm one out of every four years yeah I mean I see the case for it just because there's a reason that certain golfers are on the PGA tour we know for McCarthy it's a short game which includes his wedge play his irons are not that bad like they're kind of field average recently it's just that he's not the longest hitter he's not just we'll say like he's not the best golfer but he's phenomenal because he's on the PGA tour and in a field like this there's enough there to want to go with McCarthy he didn't quite make the cut for me but sometimes there are golfers that you bring up and I'm sure the opposite where it's like no I don't I actively don't want to play him I don't feel that way with McCarthy I just don't think I'll get there myself every single person you bring up is someone I actively don't want to use so let's go to your second golfer well you just played yourself you're going to fade the winner and you're I think your all time favorite golfer Chez Rivi Chez we list you already cursed list let's not curse everyone who I like poor Chez, Chez isn't deserved this is justice for Chez Rivi's made two straight cuts 41st at the Houston Open 33rd at the Miacoba those aren't going to move the needle but he sets up well for Seattle in resort tour according to Fantasy National over the past calendar year he's got 89th percentile adjusted iron play which adjusts for recency in my database as well and his path to a good finish is obvious he's going to if he hits fairways and then hits those great irons into birdie position without really needing to be long that's the case now he has missed the cut in two or three tries here but his strokes gain totals in those negative 6.4 negative 2.3 and negative 2.2 which would include one round for the missed cuts 2.3 that he lost was when he finished like 33rd yeah and I think that Chez is kind of under salaried is my vibe that I get from him I think he should be closer like 94, 95 somewhere in that range so I'm getting a quality of golfer in that low 9000 range without spending the low 9000 range so Chez to me does great out pretty well Chez Ramey a guy we talked about a couple events ago he's had mixed results in the swing season with a couple miscuts in two top 20s across five events but the approach plays look good and that was the key to success for Ramey on the corn fairy tour he gained 2.6 at the Fortinet 2.2 at the Sanderson Farms 4 at the Shriners 0.7 in two rounds last week in a missed cut and Ramey does seem to be a bad putter it looks like he struggles around the green as well but I can live with the all around game here at $8600 given the fact that I can bank on the approach play being pretty good and his salary being $8600 so Brandon where do you have a chat of Ramey for this week? I like him he's another to consider in that range for me I prefer Taylor Moore by a tinge but Moore is the best long-term golfer in my model over the past year with a salary of 9000 or lower Ramey is second I will take that for sure other guy wanted to ask you about because I was looking at his Hayden Buckley what sorry? I thought it was Hayden Buckley no I actually thought it was him in current form but do you have thoughts takes on Hayden Buckley? not enough to bring him up so no LucasGlover is 85 as well are you laughing at LucasGlover? I just thought it was going to be a more uncertain name no it's a good name yeah because I like this range I think that you know he's there I'm open to him great ball striking very accurate so we talked about a lot of guys in the mid 8000 range you talked about you know Hank LeBiota at 79 you talked about Ches and Emiliano Grillo at 9000 if you had to pick a guy in the mid 8000 range who would you go to does that not include Ches at 86? I thought the Ches was 9000 yeah it's because I'm a dummy made a mistake on the note sheet so outside of Ches who's number 2? Rami at 86 okay perfect I will live with that for sure let's finish up here with some win picks for the RSM Classic and again our final ones of the year you hit a win or two weeks ago I'm going to catch up here I know I've got a long time but I don't want to scramble like I did last year so based on the current odds over at FanDuel Sportsbook I'm assuming you're going Louis for one Louis at 25 is locked in I already bet that myself although I got it at 22 so oh wow you got to shop around Bud well I thought he was going to shorten because I was like he's my model had him at 16 to 1 for outright so that's pretty nice for Louis okay Louis your first one who do you want for your second? I will go with it's between Todd Homer and Corey Connors but I think I might go Max Homer is 70 I'm going to go with Max Homer here I don't love the course fit but at a certain point that dude wins and I think that as much as I hate to admit there's something to that pump and I already bet on myself so I'll just mention him here okay so I'm also going to do Louis I think it's really hard not to I think he's just the best actual value in this event so I'm going to go Louis as well for the other one he kind of didn't hand out last week but let's go back to the shameless power well shameless power for this week is 55 to 1 over at Fandil Sports Book I think that's a pretty good number for someone of his mold I wouldn't this is just one of those weeks where it's like I wouldn't talk you out a lot of people aside from Kisner just because the betting odds are too short and the Fandil seller is too high okay so who has you been picking out instead of Louis I want Max Homer at 70 to 1 it was between Corey Connors and Brandon Todd as well you have Homer at 70 I have power at 55 we both have Louis Westason at 25 to 1 for this week Brandon any final thoughts for the good people the good listeners the good audience members before we send them off to fill out their lunbs for the RSM Classic be okay thinking differently this week I don't know if anyone's going to be prohibitively popular but you can still differentiate in a lot of ways especially down lower in the salary tier and with the way the event sets up you are incentivized to be different and we have logical pivots and that is the key set up we want when trying to identify times where deviating makes a lot of sense that is all that we have here for today and this year on the PGA podcast here on the heat check but as mentioned a lot of stuff NFL twice weekly three times weekly next week with Thanksgiving PGA we'll be back in January we have USC the Austin Swain NBA and NHL covered by Tom Vecchio so make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcasts and while you're there leave a rating review hit subscribe we appreciate those of you who have done so already Brandon if people have questions for you on Twitter where can they find you there I'm at Goodwill 13 GDULA 1 & 3 can find Brandon tweeting up a storm throughout the offseason the quote and quote offseason for golf over there I'm on Twitter at Jim Sonnis G-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S you can also follow the FANDULA podcast network at FANDULA podcast big thank you to everyone for tuning in for today and this entire year enjoy the golf at the RSM enjoy the match enjoy the hero enjoy the holiday break we'll talk to you once again in January more PGA DFS this has been the heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire


Hey guys, it's Nate, AKA the Foot Accountant. Welcome back to the channel. We have got a lot of stuff to talk about today on this Friday of FIFA Ultimate Team. Yes, we're still playing FIFA 20. We got beta codes to talk about, player of the year, SBCs, player of the season, SBCs, new items or new packs and stuff added to the code. We got a lot to talk about, all right? So we're gonna get right into it, especially talking about what content could come today. It feels kind of good to get somewhat a little bit excited about FIFA content. Now I'm not super excited, I'm just a little bit excited because this promo so far has been an L, but it looks like today we might get something sick, we might have the opportunity to get some sick SBCs because right now, based on what I'm seeing, stuff that has been added to the code and of course, SBCs that could come today, I have a duplicate 96 rated card sitting here, ready to be claimed, ready to be used in an SBC and I need to see that SBC very soon. But again, the big things we're gonna talk about today are SBCs, right? SBCs, a lot of new packs have been added to the code and especially some things that EA, I think people have forgotten about over the past couple of days. So let's talk about what could happen today in foot. First things first, who remembers this tweet last week from EA Sports, putting up some voting about it's time to decide who should be crowned the Premier League player of the season, vote here. Now this is what the links takes you to, it's basically the player of the month voting website, voting is now closed, 2019-2020 player of the season vote will be announced soon. I think this is coming today. I think this vote is ended on time. I don't know, I think this vote is just EA's pure vote. I don't think this has anything to do with the PFA player of the year award. I don't think it does. I think this is an EA vote that they are making up themselves because the PFA has decided or they haven't held their award ceremony yet. So I think today that this morning, I think it's 11 a.m. UK time is gonna be when the award is announced, I believe. And then after that, we should see the SBC either right away or maybe it'll come at 6 p.m. UK because most of the time when we have a player of the month SBC, what happens is the announcement is made and shortly after that the SBC is made live in foot. So we'll see if that actually happens today or if it'll come at 6 p.m. UK with the content drop today. Speaking of player of the season though, that means the possibility of a 99 rated Kevin De Bruyne SBC card because in years past, these player of the year player of the season cards have been the same rating and the same stats as the team of the season. And if De Bruyne does win this, I think they have to give him a 99 SBC card. Of course, if Mane wins, they might give Miss Tots. If Henderson wins, they'll probably make him a 94 with the same ratings as his team of the season card. We all want KDB to win, honestly. Maybe not all of us, but a lot of us just want KDB to win. I don't think there's ever been an SBC in foot for a 99 rated card. I don't think so. This would be the first one ever. We have the first ever NAMAR SBC this year. The first ever, excuse me, the first ever player of the month NAMAR, the first ever Messi SBC. And this year we could also have the first ever SBC for a 99 rated card, I think, if I'm thinking correctly. Check me on those facts. But anyways, if a De Bruyne SBC does come today, what's that gonna do to this card? Of course, people are thinking that the SBC for player of the season would be the same rating as the Tots, if that is the case and more word gets spread around this morning or if the award is announced early morning UK time and there's no SBC yet, I think you'll see some panic selling on this Kevin De Bruyne team in the season card because people are gonna think that they're gonna be able to do the SBC for cheaper. Now there's a couple of issues with that thinking. Right now, SBC fodder is through the roof and it's not going anywhere except higher in my opinion. But if this De Bruyne SBC does come out, how much is it gonna cost? Probably somewhere since SBC fodder is so inflated right now, anywhere between 1.2 to 1.3, probably up to like 1.9 million coins. Depending on how EA priced this SBC, if they realize that an 89 rated squad right now is gonna cost you like 550,000 coins to do. It really is. So if they do like two 88 rated squads and then like if it's a six squad section, it's gonna be very expensive. If it's only four squads, then I would have some hope. Maybe like 84, 85, 86, and an 88. Then I would feel like, okay, for a Kevin De Bruyne 99 rated, if it's like 1.2 to 1.3 mil, you can do that SBC, get a couple packs back if the packs are good and tradable and you might have yourself a better deal than just going out and buying this Tots card. If the SBC is anywhere around under 1.5 mil, I think you will see this card drop a little bit on the market closer down to where that range was in years past. The player of the year SBC has been a decent bit cheaper than the team of the season and it's caused a crash. So we will see what happens this year when this SBC comes out today. Hopefully it's De Bruyne. If it's Henderson, I feel like it's the other potential player to win this SBC. I think Hendo right now, 142,000 coins. If Henderson does win, maybe they give him a 96 rated card, but I don't think that SBC is anywhere more than a couple hundred thousand coins. Maybe it's a Liverpool English player so they can make it 350K if they give him a card above his team of the season, which could be kind of cool. But I think a lot of us are hoping for KDB because the potential to get a 99 rated card from an SBC is mental. So that's the biggest thing that I think is coming today. So be on the lookout for that. Again, that's gonna cause the market to go up and a lot of panic selling to go on on the rest of the market because people are just broken this game right now and with SBC fodder being so expensive, they're gonna have to go out and sell cards to complete that SBC, not just this Kevin De Bruyne team in the season. I think you would see a decent downturn on the market today, not tomorrow, today, if this SBC is released. Right now Kevin De Bruyne is 1.98 mils just under two mil. I think you'd see dropping prices across this game if you did see a SBC like that released today just because so many people would wanna go out and do it and then have to fund it somehow, right? So they go and sell cards to do that SBC, making SBC fodder go up and making some meta cards on the market go down. Icon stuff like that, I do think you would expect to see them going down tomorrow based off of that SBC that could come today. Now, let's talk about the other things, right? For the past, what, two weeks? All we've gotten are these 89 plus SBCs, a couple of player SBCs for Roads of the Finals and for live cards. And we've gotten a couple of these award winner, right? The award winner cards, Blanco and Joe Bryan, and we've had some upgrade packs, right? The 89 plus is in the 86 player pick. Like that's been our content for the past two weeks. Just a little bit ago, EA Sports, not EA Sports. Yes, EA Sports and Foot Watch. Well, Foot Watch found this pack code, right? We have some new packs, that's what I'm trying to say. Look at all these packs they added tonight. This almost feels like to me. EA just said, eff it, we're adding all this stuff into the pack code for the rest of the year and we're gonna drop this stuff and this is like the end of FIFA. It might not all drop today, but I wanna go through some of these things with you guys. First things first, guarantees a Tots SF player rated 92 or higher. We already have an any Tots pack. We already have a 90 plus Tots pack. Now we have a 92 plus team of the season pack. Gonna be out in the game. That better be like an 84 or 85 rated squad at the most. Please EA Sports, that'd be nice. Make it repeatable, thank you very much. We have a Prime Gaming pack, which by the way, if you guys did not know, Twitch Prime renamed itself to Prime Gaming. They're trying to rebrand so that people realize all the benefits that do come with Amazon Prime, which is Twitch Prime, which is now Prime Gaming. So just kinda realize that Prime Gaming is basically just a Twitch Prime pack. A player pick with 83 rated and five rare gold players. Nothing really new there. The next pack, five rare gold players rated 89 or higher. The packs that we had before, I think it was a 489 plus pack, I believe. Now we have a 589 plus player pack. So we have three packs added right here in this section of code, but wait, there's more! Contains five team of the season so far, players on a five game loan, okay, whatever. We've seen that for the past two weeks. That's gonna be given to us today probably on Friday to do some sort of objective that relates to FIFA 21. So we'll talk about that in a bit as well. And then a couple icon packs, and this is big. Contains one base Prime, mid or icon moments player. Now depending on the price of that SBC, that could be fun. A base, mid, Prime or icon moments player. That's kinda like a gamble roulette for icons, right? That's gotta be a cheap SBC. If that's less, it's gotta be less than like 50, 60, 70,000 coins to craft from scratch. My guess, it's probably gonna be like 100 to 150K. That's where they'll make it the value just because there's a lot of icons that are less in that price range. Hopefully it's like under 90,000 coins. That'd be nice, but that's an interesting pack. This is the big one as well. So that's called an any icon player pack. This is a big one. Icon moments player. Contains one icon moments player. So these packs are getting added to the code right now, but as you guys very well know, these SBCs still have some time left. The 81 double, the 82 to 88, and the icon upgrade all have two days remaining in the game. There's a lot of stuff that expires in two days. These upgrade pass especially. So what's gonna happen in two days? What's gonna happen today on Friday? I'm gonna take my best stab and kinda tell you guys what I think's gonna happen today. First of all, that lone team of the season so far pack. We've seen it already with icon moments and with team of the years. It's probably gonna be another objective called like team of the season something, right? And it's gonna be compete to earn a foot 20 pack and earn something else in FIFA 21. That's gonna be the thing that we see today with the team of the season lone players. So you'll get those, you'll get that pack chucking in your club and then you'll have that ready to go for whatever objective they're gonna come out with is this icon interplay resets in 14 hours which will be 6 p.m. UK. Then you'll have another set of objectives to do as well. And then other things that I do think is gonna come today that one pack that was the 92 plus tots SF that is a pack that I could see coming today or the 89 rated five players pack. Now again, seeing all these packs getting added to the code. This is awesome content, right Esports? This is great. This is fun. This is the kind of stuff that we wanna do at this stage of the year. But it's honestly ridiculous when I have to go out and complete an 84 rated squad and I'm having to go pay for a goalkeeper. Look how much like Leno is man. How much am I gonna have to pay for Leno to complete an 84 rated SPC? 10, 11,000 coins. These cards are so inflated right now it's ridiculous. And honestly, there's really not gonna be any way that fodder gets cheaper unless EA starts magically upping the pack weight or they put more cards into packs because that's the only way that fodder is gonna go lower is if you put promo packs in the store for one because these cards need supply. We need promo packs in the store. We need tradable packs as SPC rewards because right now we need fodder to be supplied because it is all just outrageously expensive. And people are, people still have coins in this game, right? People are still buying coins and buying FIFA points so that they can open these packs, right? And as I just see more and more and more of these packs getting added to the code man, it's scaring me. It's honestly scaring me because people are just so addicted to SPCs. Yes, these are fun, but people are gonna be running out of coins very, very soon. So hopefully EA sports can release something that drops fodder, I'm not expecting it. Does fodder go up today? Honestly, it probably does. It seems crazy that 86 rated cards could go higher that 85s could go higher. But honestly, it's very possible, right? Look at these price ranges. I would not be surprised if this VTEL card goes to like 25, 30,000 coins again. If you're somebody who likes to trade with fodder, some of these cards got hit with some supply today from weak and weak rewards. If you're somebody who really wants to buy in, find a card that has a very high price range, maybe buy that card and it could go up even higher, right? Fabinho, 30,000 coin price range. He was 24, 25,000 coins earlier this week. He's 20k right now. I'm not a fodder guy. I don't really invest in trade with fodder, but if it's your thing, I honestly don't think it's that scary to buy these cards at these prices right now. Everything inside of me is like, bro, why would you tell people to buy an 85 rated card at 20,000 coins? But with these types of SBCs that I'm seeing in the PAT code, people will pay 30k for an 85, 92 plus TOTS player, five rare gold players in 89 or above with the stuff that's in packs right now. And any icon moments player pack? Dude, people would go nuts for an any icon moments player pack, right? That SBC, if that comes out, which I don't think that SBC would come out until after these go away, right? The icon upgrade I think is gonna be for two days, maybe the any icon player comes out and that better be cheap. But if this icon upgrade, which is for a prime or moments is an 86 and an 88, the icon moments SBC, I wish it would be this way, but it's probably gonna cost you three or four squads for that SBC, just based on what EA like to do. Now, I have my fingers crossed that for some reason that they do that icon moments SBC just an 88 rated squad, that'd be sick. Like EA sports, can we get some decent value? Can you look and see how expensive the fodder cards are on this game right now and just make these SBCs insanely cheap? I beg, I beg you to do that EA sports. One thing that you might also want to do before all these SBCs come out is a couple of things. Sebastian Blanco, 94 rated card. You might be looking at this and say, yo, I do not need this card, right? He's 94 rated for an 83 rated squad. Right now, this SBC as a 94 rated card is the cheapest 94 rated card on the market by 50,000 coins. The next cheapest 94 rated card actually hold up even more than that. The cheapest 94 rated card on foot right now is Team of the Season, Van de Beek, 115,000 coins. This is a 50K SBC, all right? Do this card and use it for fodder because that's 50K that you would rather spend doing this SBC than you would buying 115,000 coin, 94 rated card. So this is a very good value SBC. I would do that before 6 p.m. today. I would get it in, get it done. Even if you have to pay 50K out of pocket if you want to do Player of the Year or Player of the Season, De Bruyne, or any of those icon SBCs that are gonna come out or like the 89, five player SBC, just get this guy done, put him in your club before 83s get even more expensive because that is a very good value fodder card right there. Same thing with Michele Antonio, 86 rated card. Right now we're selling for 30,000 coins on the market. You can do this SBC for 11K. Get it in the club if you have not done it yet. It is easy, GGs, I rated fodder in the club just like that. Definitely go ahead and do that and get those two guys in your club ASAP Rocky because those are gonna help you with SBCs that come based on the stuff that we saw put into the pack code today. So again, I know that it's freaking halfway through August and a lot of you guys don't even care about this game that much anymore but we had to talk about this today because this is big news, big developments, a lot of stuff going on with Thieve Aldman team today with the stuff that's added to the pack code. There could be a lot of content today, right? Very curious to see what happens with the content today on Thieve Aldman team. Probably some sort of objective as well. Maybe a top transfer objective, maybe a Champions League showdown. I mean, today is probably the biggest game in Champions League that we've seen in a while, right? We have ourselves Barcelona and Dembele slash Jordi Alba slash Ansu Fati wrote to the final cards against Bundesliga Goats FC Bayern with Koeman, Gretzgera, live items on the line, all right? If you have any of these cards, the safest way to do it is to sell pre-game at the start of the game. Usman has gone from 240 to 270, Koeman and Gretzgera up a little bit. I have a Koeman and Gretzgera on my transfer list. I might get a little ballsy and hold these guys because I do think that Bayern are gonna win but that's gonna be a fantastic game today with live upgrades again on the line. So definitely watch out on those road to the final cards. Watch out for some panic sailing this morning. There's any cards you wanna buy for your team. If we get big SBCs at 6 p.m. UK, that people are gonna have to sell cards to go and do because they have high rated squad requirements. Watch out for some panic sailing if you still need to pick up some cards for your weekend league team, all right? Good luck if you're playing weekend league this weekend and we'll see what EA Sports wants to drop for us today on the market. If you enjoyed this video, drop a thumbs up on it. Comment down below if you have any questions and of course, subscribe to the channel if you're new. It's been Nate, the Foot Accountant. Catch you guys later. Peace out.


Hours after President Joe Biden described Donald Trump as a threat to democracy, the former president fired back speaking at the Terrace View Event Center in Sioux Center in Iowa. He accused Biden of abusing George Washington's legacy to attack him and his supporters, Trump added his own dire warning about the stakes in the campaign, telling supporters the 2024 election was their last chance to save America. The state is home to the first in the nation GOP nomination event, the Iowa Caucus. Which takes place on January 15, 2024. At 7 p.m., Trump holds a resounding lead over his rivals, but he urged supporters not to be complacent in the face of a commanding lead as he kicked off the sprint to the Iowa Caucus with his first events of the election year. He's dealing against Russia, he's dealing against President Xi of China. If you would deal with these people, you'd say, it's not a fair fight. Before going further, I want to send our support and our deepest sympathies to the victims and families touched by the terrible school shooting yesterday in Perry, Iowa. To the entire community, we love you, we pray for you, and we ask God to heal and comfort really the whole state. Because Biden, I mean, if you take a look at what he's doing on the border or inflation or our military, that horrible day in Afghanistan, you look at what he's done with energy all throughout the world, we're an embarrassment as a country. We become an embarrassment as a country. The only reason Biden is at Valley Forge abusing George Washington's legacy, I mean, he's abusing Washington's legacy. You can take the 10 worst presidents in the history of our country, you can add them up, put them together, and they haven't done the damage that Joe Biden's done to this country. What he's done to this country is unthinkable. George's record is an unbroken streak of weakness, incompetence, corruption, and failure. Other than that, he's doing quite well, isn't he, don't you?   That's why Crooked Joe is staging his pathetic fearmongering campaign event in Pennsylvania today. Did you see him? He was stuttering through the whole thing. He's got a vibe. He's a threat to democracy. I'm a threat. We've weaponized government, he's saying I'm a threat to democracy.


think it was really clear that I wanted to keep talking in that last lecture because carriers are really cool and this is all facilitated diffusion so the only difference is whether we're going through a carrier or whether we're going through a channel. Carriers here's the take-home message they are only open to one side at a time. Okay think about that. I think of carriers as little like Pac-Man things that can open in to the cell or they can open out of the cell. They can't be open to in and out both at the same time. Contrast that with the channel. The channel is a tube and when the tube is open if it's a gated channel and that channel is open it's a direct path between the extracellular fluid and the intracellular fluid. Which one's going to be faster do you think? Is it going to be faster for molecules to move through a channel or through a carrier? Channels are faster. In fact there are water channels that allow I don't know it was like within one second like a hundred million miles. I can't remember what the fact was. It's something absurd how quickly water can move in and out of a channel as opposed to a carrier that has to change its confirmation in order to move something through and really carriers move things through like one at a time. Channels move things through one at a time but you can get a really fast line right you can get like everybody can crowd into line together and they might have to go through single file but everybody's trying to get through and they can make it happen. The carrier is like like that roundy round door where you know what if that thing fills up okay that was a bad example but it has you have to get all the way through everybody has to get all the way through before the next group can get back in. Did you fall like what nobody knows what I just said okay so we now have a sense of why carriers are different than channels but they're doing the same thing so we're just moving molecules in this case we're moving the green things you can see here we've got a green thing going in usually in a carrier the molecule that's being moved has a binding site in the carrier and the carrier what is it it's a protein that's what the channel is too channels are proteins and often when something binds to a protein it changes its shape so the molecule binds to the carrier protein that changes its shape and the shape change usually opens the molecule the carrier to a different direction we're now facing inside or outside opposite of what we were and the binding site usually goes away once the binding site goes away the molecule falls off and is now in on the other side of the cell membrane all of our carriers work the same way these guys just do facilitated diffusion because they're moving molecules down their cell member down their concentration gradient through the some okay let's talk about active transport next