Hi, my name is Leon Roeb, currency trader and trading coach at trading180.com and welcome to this week's supply and demand for us and gold fundamental and technical analysis. Looking at the week ahead, the 8th of October in the United States, attention will be on the inflation report. That's going to be very important. FOMC meeting minutes and speeches by Federal Reserve officials wholesale price data and the Michigan consumer confidence index in China. China will release its trade balance, PPI inflation and inflation rates. That's going to be important as well. Inflation is linked to really how the economy is doing. And while in the United Kingdom will provide monthly GDP figures and that again is going to be important to determine really what the central bank are likely to do. The Bank of England are likely to do with interest rates. Australia will reveal Westpac consumer confidence and NAV business confidence data. And Germany will share insights into its industrial production. And this is from tradingeconomics.com. If you go to tradingeconomics.com, they have more of an in depth analysis on what they think with regards to the weeks news and what may happen. So if you are new as well, by the way, to the mentoring group in this called mentoring group, if you go to the trading videos channel, I have uploaded the weeks technical analysis is about an hour and 13 minutes. Also as well, I've got some fundamental analysis, which includes bank analysis that I don't include in the Sunday YouTube video. And that's the weekly fundamentals plus the weeks, some of the weeks videos as well. So basically, I've got one here how to approach trade entry stockpunts and candlesticks, but one here changing risk reward expectations when fundamentals change or uncertain. And I've got the live group call recording, which was a long one on Wednesday, which was two hours 42. And then I've got some other videos as well, where I talk about the CAD Swiss, as well as the Euro CAD. So lots of videos to catch up on if you haven't done so already. And by the way, if you are not a part of the trading mentoring group, I will reopen it in January 2024. But I know some of you have emailed me asking to join after we closed, I closed on Friday. So I'm going to do a last minute intake. Today, if you email me at info at trading 180.com, and you do want to join, then any emails I received today, then I will give you the details and reply back with how you can join the forest mentoring discord group. If you go to trading 180.com to find out a bit more information about that. Anyways, let's get into the technicals for the week and some more fundamentals. And so starting off on the dollar index and dollars just literally been going from strength to strength. This is no accident. This is not driven just by price action or some Elliot wave, you know, no ABCD 12345 wave. It's really driven by the market, right? And the market's expectation of the value of the dollar. And so for anyone who's been following me for any length of time, you've known that my bias week and week out since around these July, August areas have been to go long in the dollar and you can see it really play out. And so the Fed on Fridays, FOMC report, sorry, non farm payrolls report, apologies, was was pretty much a blowout. So it says here the headline is the Fed will lean towards another rate hike after blowout payroll. So FMC will have option to move again in November or December. Fed will be concerned about a reacceleration in the economy and why are they concerned about the reacceleration in the economy? And that's really kind of down to the fact that they don't want inflation to move away from their 2% target because long story short to get into it too much. But rising inflation is linked with a growing economy. And so actually the Federal Reserve do want the economy to shrink a little to get inflation back down to their 2% target. And so let's read the first maybe paragraph or two. And it says here hotter than expected US jobs report lightly night the Federal Reserve towards raising interest rates again by the end of the year. So non farm payrolls increased 336,000 last month after a sizable upper revisions to the prior two months, a Bureau of Labor Statistics report showed Friday that unemployment rate held at 3.8 and wages rose at a modest pace. And this will keep the Fed very guarded and very much concerned about upside risks, said Luke Tilley, Chief Economist at Wilmington Trust Corp. Because this plays into their concerns about reacceleration in the economy. It sounds a bit strange, right? You'd think that the central bank and the government would want a really good economy. But the more that inflation grows, basically, or the economy grows, the higher inflation typically gets. And then what happens is, is that the Federal Reserve have to end up hiking rates a bit more, which actually may have a detrimental effect to the economy. And they're looking really for a soft landing. So I think in the short term, overall, you know, what that means for the dollar is that the dollar hopefully should want to continue moving higher. I'm not saying it's going to move higher this week. Nobody knows. But overall, I think the trend for a higher dollar is still intact, whether it, you know, kind of bounces from where we are right now in that demand zone, or whether we pull back a bit more and get a deeper pull back and get a cheaper price for the dollar. Either way, I think the dollar is still the currency to buy at the moment. Again, barring some sort of maybe risk event, you know, out of the blue. But fundamentally, the economy is doing well. Inflation is coming down. The Federal Reserve may look to hike rates, looking at the CME Fed Watch tool. And at the moment, it doesn't look like the market has, you know, priced in a rate hike. But the more the data comes out, and of course, we have inflation data this week. So if that comes in higher than expected, you can expect this number in terms of a hike at 27% to definitely reaccelerate to the upside and the market starts to price in a hike, which then means, obviously, I hire a higher dollar. Also, what was interesting was that speculators up to dollar longs ahead of latest US jobs reports the leverage funds increased long dollar bets for the third week, according to the CFTC greenback briefly rallied after hot and expected jobs data. And so speculative traders loaded up on bullish dollar positions ahead of the latest reading of US employment data which showed hiring unexpectedly surged in September. So they basically put them anywhere their mouth was and and yeah, they got the right result in times of the fundamentals. But in price action, it was something slightly different. It was something slightly different in price. And so before I get into that, there is a book I highly recommend. It's called 50 trades in 50 weeks. It's by a trader by the name of Brent Donnelly, who was I think he was a market maker or a head trader for HSBC of works in many different institutions and banks. And on Friday yesterday, many of you may have seen actually price for the dollar spiked down the spike up, right? So pretty much if we go to something like the euro dollar, what you saw is something like on the hourly timeframe where prices spiked down, you're watching this and then it just spiked up above price action. Many traders would be confused by this. And this is something that actually does happen. If you've been trading for any length of time, sometimes these things do happen, right? So you get good news or and bad price, so you can have bad news and good price, right? That's really bad news. Good, bad or bad or good. It's more just to do with the opposite happening or what you expect. And this paragraph kind of highlights it as well in terms of the explanation for it. And in the book, it basically goes on how to kind of approach these scenarios if these things do happen. So it's definitely worth a read and a buy. My theory is that this is just really a stop-hunt. There's a lot of traders that went short here. And personally, I never would have gone, never went short here simply because of the risk-reward ratio, right? So the risk-reward in terms of looking at, you know, trying to go short here. Let's say you press your stop-loss around here, but look at the downside. We know that this is an expensive area, right, for the dollar. And so the risk-reward just wasn't worth it. If your risk-reward is something like this, you know, you're buying up here, then that makes a bit more sense. But not many traders may have got into, you know, pressed sell or pressed short at these areas. I typically wait for candlesticks to close even after the news or I'm getting in before the news. But I wasn't necessarily trading the US dollar because I didn't think it was around these highs, but I do think that we are due for a short anyway, even this week or into the next weeks. And again, it really does depend upon the inflation data and also what happens with the euro. But and I'll get into the euro in a sec. But but I think over the dollar is still a short, regardless of what happened on Friday with with short-term price action. The dollar for me is still a buy. It just means that, you know, pulling back on the dollar just means you can buy it for for cheaper, even though you might have lost a trade or so. So dollar for me is a is a buy. Dollar yen, I think the dollar yen should move up this week or over the next coming weeks. Reason really kind of being main reason is because the Bank of Japan are waiting for inflation, especially wage inflation to kind of go come in higher. And last week, basically, Japan's slower than forecast in wage growth supports B.O.J. So lackluster pay suggests Bank of Japan has to wait more to normalise, basically remove your curve control and raise interest rates and household cut spending again compared to previous years. So one of the main indicators that the Bank of Japan are watching to indicate whether they would want to remove your curve control isn't necessarily moving in the direction to make them want to remove your curve control. And so with that and with a strong, you know, dollar at the moment, I'm not saying again, price can't go down this week. Of course, it can. But if it does pull back, then ultimately, probably you're looking at more buying opportunities. The higher prices go, though, past that one fifty into the one fifty one, one fifty twos, you could start to see more intervention on Monday. There was the speculation that the Bank of Japan did intervene, but they never announced that they did. So the market kind of took that with a pinch of salt. And so it looks like the data is probably going to be more driving the dollar to the upside. But if you are anticipating trying to get short on the dollar yen, it would really be trying to anticipate some sort of intervention, another intervention, you know, towards the one five twos, one five threes as we get to these, you know, these higher areas here. Apparently, Goldman Sachs and some other banks are looking at one five fives as the as the area where the bank might start to intervene the Bank of Japan, Dollar Swiss, Dollar Swiss. And I am actually in this trade long at the moment. So but looking at this from a daily perspective, we did come up to this supply zone, sold off a little bit. The nearest demand zone is all the way down to the to this area here. So for me, out of the two, I'm definitely looking to buy the dollar over the Swiss franc. If I lose this trade, then I'll just look for, you know, continued by trades as long as obviously the dollar and the data supports buying the dollar, right? So just, you know, price actually doesn't always correlate. We're looking for value. And so the more it pulls back because it's been on actually quite a quite a big run. And so I would expect at least a decent pullback to some area of of demand. And that makes that that can make sense. Understand that this is more of an expensive area, a bit more of an expensive area to buy in. But I think if it pulls back to that 89 area, 89, 60s, then I think that's going to be a very nice area to look for some buy trades. Moving on to the dollar cad and the Canadian dollar did actually have some news, some really good news, which could potentially make the Bank of Canada look to hike rates. So Canada jobs gains, triple expectations and wages grew faster. So gains driven by part-time work, educational services and upward trend happening during record high immigration. So Canada's labour market blew past expectations for a third straight month while wage growth accelerated doing little to quels and bets for another rate hike amid stubborn price pressures. And the last I think it was core inflation for Canada did come in higher than expected. So yeah, there was some positive news and I say positive, but some news that basically puts rate hikes on the table for the Canadian dollar for the Bank of Canada. So you can start to see prices did start to obviously fall away a little bit. I wouldn't necessarily trade the dollar cad because both currencies and both central banks are looking to potentially hike rates. So there's not really a divergence there, but maybe the Canadian dollar against another currency that isn't like, for example, or might not like, for example, the Swiss franc would be a decent trade to look for in terms of a long CAD trade. But fundamentally looking at or technically looking at this this area here, I think any pullbacks if you want to be a buyer of the US dollar against the Canadian dollar is going to be the first area to look for. If you're looking for short trades, then you're looking for any kind of pullbacks up into the one three eight one three eight fifties before looking at going short. New Zealand dollar, US dollar. And I think the New Zealand dollar might be on a might start to strengthen. There was some there's been some positive data out of New Zealand recently and the possibility of a potential rate hike. So this could actually be a decent buy, but not against up again, not really against the US dollar. I'm not really keen on buying anything against the US dollar. So if you do want to get and do look to trade this currency, pay I think the highs of this supply zone. And if you're looking for a buy, it's really at the bottom of this demand zone before looking at going long. But yeah, I'm not looking to buy the this currency pair at all or trade the currency pair. Pound dollar, I will continue to short this this this currency. And we've pulled up to a decent area of supply. Where are we now? Yeah, so it's it's decent. It's also got some added confluence when you look back. That area has been traded as support and resistance within that area of supply as well. So I think that's nice. So either if there's some, you know, if there's not any good news for the pound, then I think that should roll over. If not, I think the one to four area is going to be really maybe the the short term limit of this this move to the upside. But again, it does depend on what happens with the dollar and the inflation. If inflation remains sticky or higher, then I do think that the dollar should continue to strengthen. But let's go to some Bank of England news and Bailey Bank Bank of England's Bailey says the job is not done on fighting UK inflation. And so he's trying to sound hawkish. So the Bank of England governor, Andrew Bailey, said the job is not done on fighting inflation, even though he expects those pressures to dissipate rapidly this year. So he does expect inflation to come down quite significantly and quickly. But the problem is, is that there's signs that the UK economy is weakening. That deputy governor warns employment could drop suddenly and slower consumer spending on household goods points to a slump. And so this is from the Bank of England's deputy governor, Ben Broadbent, warns that there are clear signs that interest rate rises are dragging on the UK economy and causing unemployment to pick up. And if that does start to come to fruition, then the upside to the pound really is going to be quite limited. There's no reason for me really to want to buy the pounds.  So I do think any pullbacks are really kind of short in opportunities on the pound, dollar, euro, dollar and similar to the pound where we have when you compare really the two economies, the Europe and the US, it looks like the US is, you know, in a much better situation. We have ECB's Vidoroy sees no justification for more rate hikes for now. So this is the French official echoes ECB's Kazimier in discussing in discussing rate peak and ECB vice president says too soon to talk about cuts, though. So they do have a governing council. Let me just zoom in a little bit.  And it looks like I don't know whether this is more more Hawks than Dubs, but I'll turn the influence gauge. But it does look like the depending on what happens with the economy, of course, and the inflation coming down. I think, you know, that the ECB are probably more likely done hiking. So if that is the case, then we should get either a pullback into one of these supply zones before looking at, you know, another sell off. And of course, you can add, you know, an area of support, horizontal support, if you want to use that as some extra confluence within those supply zones. But ultimately, my bias is to the short side for now. There could be a deeper pullback, but any pullbacks, I think, for me are shorting opportunities, looking at the Australian dollar and the Australian dollar. I think might be, you know, having a bit of a turning point. And the there was a new governor that's taken the helm. So Australia extends rate pause at Bullock's first meeting to RBA, reiterates some further tightening of policy may be needed. So that sounds hawkish, right? And highlights ongoing uncertainties, including China property woes. So there are risks, and that is China is Australia is closely linked to how China China's economy and how it's doing. So at the beginning, I did talk about the, you know, China trade balance, PPI and inflation rates. And if, you know, those start to be positive and those are good readings, then in fact that should help, you know, Australia as well. So it says here some further tightening of monetary policy may be required to ensure the inflation returns to target in a reasonable time frame. But that will continue to depend upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks. Bullock, who took the helm just over two weeks ago, said in her post meeting statements. So she's come in and she's pretty much said she is willing to hike if necessary, if the data does support hikes. So it's all about looking at any data, like jobs and inflation and the economy that does support rate hikes. And if they do, I think the Australian dollar could be a buy again, not really against the US dollar, maybe against something a bit weaker, like, for example, I don't know, the Japanese yen fundamentally, and maybe the Swiss franc. So that could be a nice buying opportunity for the Australian dollar. But Aussie dollar, I think if you're looking at sell trades, you're really looking at this area here or a fresher area of supply. If you're looking at looking to buy, then there's obviously some demand around here. But the dollar is going to be a very difficult sell at the moment in my book. So nothing there and gold and gold. I was saying in my last weekly video, which wasn't last week, but the week before, which was when prices were somewhere up here and really explaining that gold is likely to have a tough time simply because you've got higher treasury yields, right? So treasury yields are higher. You've got higher interest rates on the US dollar as well. And obviously the dollar and gold move, typically move inversely. So if you've got 5%, if you get 5% for just holding the US dollar and then, you know, depending on whether you're holding a two year or 10 year, you're looking at somewhere between, you know, maybe something like 4.5 to 5% as well. On the US treasuries, right? Then because gold doesn't pay a yield, it's going to be very difficult for gold to really, you know, stay stay a bit basically and stay a buyer. So this is the reason why you've seen this kind of drop on gold. We've come down to the 1820s. We could even see this is like a key level, but we could even see prices drop a bit further. There are levels of demand around here. But yeah, it's going to be difficult to buy gold at the moment. I think you definitely need some sort of trigger or some sort of sentiment to change against the dollar, maybe some some fears around the session coming into play, which doesn't look like it. But, you know, or some something out of the blue, I'm not too sure what it could be. But but at the moment, it does look like the path of these resistance is to the downside when it comes to when it comes to gold. Also, as well, you do have, I think that is like some hidden supply there. Yeah, it looks like hidden supply. So this would be the first area to look for some short trade if you were looking for a short trade right there. And of course, that's that's you having the bias that the dollar really is a buy. And if the dollar is a buy, then gold is a sell. If you think the dollar is a sell, then gold could be a decent buy at this key area of of of demand, as well as support and resistance. So you can see where the institutions have been trading that area and fought that the 1820s to 1800 area is an area of of value. Anyways, guys, that's it for this week. And yeah, again, just a quick reminder that if you do want to join, you know, this the last intake really this year is going to be today by the end of today. If I don't get any emails or if you email me tomorrow, unfortunately, I'm not going to be able to accept your application. So just email me just saying that you're interested today and I'll open up a space for you. Otherwise, if you do want to join the next opening will be January in twenty twenty four next year. So, guys, I hope you have a great trading week. Take care and I'll speak to you. I agree with it, but that is my approach. And and if you have any comments, I just read out some of the comments that Eagle says, remember, for the new people here, there will always be pullbacks that don't get discouraged even. Oh, sorry, if, for example, now your cad is bearish, but you will see pullbacks, sorry, one second, but you see pullbacks up like you see now. But we know overall fundamental trend for your cad is down bearish. Same goes with other currencies or any trading assets on equity markets. And this is this is a great point that you make as well, right? This is a great point that you make as well, Eagle. And I'm going to get to some of the other comments as well. But I just want to touch on Eagle's Eagle's comments and let me just delete clear all drawings, right? So I know some of you have come in and are looking at definitely day trading strategies. Now, I had it funny because I had a talk with a trader yesterday, yesterday evening, and yeah, he asked me this question in terms of, you know, how many trades that I take? Do I take a day or a week or a month? And I pretty much said, look, it depends upon the level because what's more important is is the level, right? And and discounts. So first and foremost, we're looking at, you know, cheap, right, and expensive areas. I'll try and wrap this up as soon as I can, by the way, because I know we've got a half an hour and I haven't even started the currency summary report. But I think this is important for everybody, right? It's a cheap and expensive areas. Now, depending on which way you're trading, right? Let's say, for example, you're a buyer of the base currency. Let's say, I don't know, this is this is dollar yen, right? This is dollar yen.  I will say obviously, but at the moment, fundamentally, you would want to be a buyer of the dollar, right? It makes all the sense in the world, yeah? So at the moment, this is, this would be considered cheap and this would be considered expensive, right? Who buys at highs? No one wants to buy at highs. Now, let's say, for example, this is a, you know, a daily chart, right? So what we're looking for is daily demand zones.  And prices pull back, let's say this represents, I don't know, a 300-pip pullback, yeah? That move to that, from that high to that low represents 300 pips. You must be careful or be very, very mindful that you're not, if you're a day trader, of what's going on in the higher time frame and be patient enough to understand where the cheap or bargain prices potentially are. We know this was a bargain. Why? Because prices made a new high and that was a previous expensive area and prices were such a bargain down here that it pushed past that previous expensive area, right? So when prices come back down to this area, the best place to look for a trade is down here, right? That would be the best place. That's not to say that prices can't go here and can't bounce off that, you know, support term or resistance term support, et cetera. I'm not saying that. But what I'm saying is this, if this low to this high, this bargain to this expensive area, you know, discounts and premiums, this represents 300 pips. A lot of times day traders can get caught in looking at 100-pip move or 100-pip pullback and thinking, yep, that's a big enough move for me to wanna get involved, yeah? Because they're not taking into account the bigger picture on a lower timeframe, this area here may look like something like this, right?   Not realizing that, in fact, you're still buying at highs or you're still buying at least above what would be considered 50% fair value, right? Because 50% pullback between a high and expensive and a cheap area would be known as, you know, fair value, right? So it's really important, yeah, that you understand where you are in terms of where you're buying, yeah? And whether you're buying that and again, that's not to say that this can't go higher, right? And I personally, I don't care if it goes higher because my, I'm looking at, I'm looking, my priority is buying at discounted prices, yeah? I'm not looking to just take any, you know, willy-nilly level, yeah? So when the trader asked me yesterday about, you know, how many trades I take and I just said to him, look, it really just depends on whether the level or the area that I'm looking at sets up, yeah? If this sets up within a day, brilliant, excellent. I never trade, you know, within 24 hours, if it pulls back within 24 hours, 300 pips, brilliant. If it takes a week for that to pull back 300 pips to get to a demand zone where I'm interested in, then it takes a week, right? So I can't, you know, like I said, some weeks it can be, I can take two or three trades a week, right? Maybe even four or five on a really good week, yeah? See, good week's not good or bad, just, you know, the opportunity arises, right? And then there might be a week or two where we're waiting for prices to pull back and we, you know, there's all this lack of volatility, for example, volatility dries up. No one can control how far prices or how much prices are gonna move. We have periods of high volatility and periods of low volatility. So we have to just understand that those types of things are beyond our control. And it's important you understand this because you are gonna have periods of this, yeah? And it's not my strategy, or it might be my strategy, you could blame my strategy if you want, but in the way that we trade, it's not, you know, we're looking for the opportunity and not be driven by I need to make money to date. I need to make money this week because I need to pay my bills and I need to, da-da-da-da, right? That's not how, you know, that's not really how I trade. I know some traders do trade like that, but you're never gonna take the best trades and the most optimum trades if for this week, for some reason, you know, there's been a, you know, prices haven't gone anywhere and you've kind of had to just sit on your hands the whole week and then you're going down into lower and lower and lower time frames, you know, rather than go into an hourly, you're thinking, all right, let me go down to the 15 minute. Oh, you know what, there's nothing there. Let me go down to the five minute. Let me look at a one minute level. Then you start, that's how you traders end up typically getting caught out, right? It's understanding that there will be a pullback to some degree. Sometimes you have to wait for it and the wait might be a week or two. It is what it is, but if, you know, we're trading, you know, multiple pairs, hopefully at some point there should be, you know, at least a trading opportunity, a minimum of one or two a week, right? There should be something like that. It's rare that you don't get anything for the whole week, but just understand that if there is, if there is a situation where prices have gone without you and you're looking for a pullback, just wait for the pullback. That's just my advice, of course, it's your own money, you can make your own decisions, but just know that if you do take a trade at highs and I don't comment, you know, on the trade, you know, in terms of, I might say, oh, it's a good looking trade, but I might give you some feedback and say, well, it is at highs, so just be careful. Then, you know, that's just what it is. Also, as well, if you are trading at highs and you can't help yourself, reduce your risk size, because the chances of it probably going back to discount is higher than it is, you know, buying at highs, right? Because remember, as well, liquidity needs to be got, right? And liquidity needs to be got. There are institutions that have missed out on certain, you know, moves or haven't necessarily filled enough orders, right? And the job of the market maker, right, is to provide liquidity for these institutions. So if you see some unfair auctions to the upside, a couple, just know that those unfair auctions need to be filled at some point. It could be today, tomorrow, next week, next month, but there needs to be liquidity provided, right? And that will happen and you will get a pullback and an opportunity. So just try to be patient. So hopefully that explains things as well. Let me just go back a little bit. Suspenser says the reason why these influence, the reason why these influence because the required rate of return investors require these returns if someone didn't know. Sorry, the reason why these influence because the required rate of return investors require these returns if someone didn't know. I'm not too sure. Maybe that was about, was that about the bonds? The bonds side of things, Spencer. It says, remember that bonds are debt security if someone didn't know. Yeah, absolutely they are debt. Spencer says, this is like the one thing I learned well drawn into me coming to trading, wasn't it? Yeah, yeah, this you have to man. You can't chase, you can't chase price.  It's all about the level and the discount, right? Whether you're buying it cheap, expensive and value isn't present every single day, right? And believe it or not, it might be present every single week, right? It will present itself but you have to kind of be a bit more patient. Igor says, Haley and I have just shared dynamic yield curve, 2007 versus 2023. Take a look and see similarities. Another tip to let us know in advance that recession is coming eventually, probably 2024, 2025. We do not know but it is a good indicator to watch. Okay, that's interesting, that's interesting. Yeah, but you know possibly 2024, 2025, who knows? But for now, it looks like the dollar is still a buy, right? It looks like the dollar is definitely still a buy. There was an article, we'll get into it a bit later about the dollar. Yeah, the king, that's exactly it.  I have to give you your praises. You've been calling it for a while and it's come to fruition, right? So brilliant, brilliant, brilliant call on the dollar. So yeah, so that's basically it, right? So that's the, just I guess a bit of an introduction. To trading 180 and the approach that we and I take. So, coming to some of your report.


It is composed of three fires battalions. The brigade lands, prepares, executes and assesses joint and multinational fires in support of joint forceable entrance. Force is a force dedicated to maintain the capability of deploying on short notice. Anywhere in the world, by land, cavalry paratroopers in the 82nd are ready to respond at a moment's notice as it is everyone's business. The 82nd Airborne Division, J Patrick Work. Dear General J Patrick Work. The asserted infantry regiment is commanded by Lieutenant Colonel Elijah Myers of Farnsville. The of Gillette, Wyoming. Ladies and gentlemen, Devil's Strike. Your Benjamin voice of Burt Hills, New York. Ladies and gentlemen, though. With their shoots, and weapons, we're on the hook.  The fight's coming true. Three fires battalions. The brigade plans to prepare, execute and assesses joint and multinational fires in support of joint forceable entrants. This force is of course dedicated to maintain the capability of deploying on short notice. Anywhere in the world, by land, we have a repair troopers in the 82nd are ready to respond at a moment's notice as it is everyone's business. The 82nd Airborne Division


If we look up the definition for the word memory, let's see what it says. The faculty by which the mind stores and remembers information. Something remembered from the past, a recollection. So as we all know, growing up, going through life, you can have a lot of good things that you remember. Some fun times from your past, some exciting times from your past, some things that you just enjoyed so much. And then you can have bad ones too. And what the playoffs were for the Ravens for this past season, it was a bad memory. And again, the focal point of what their off season has been, has been remember the Titans. And the Ravens certainly remember those Titans because the Titans, they bring up a memory that will never ever be able to be erased. You might be able to push it down or push it to the back of your head or to the back of your mind, but it'll always be there because it's written in the history books. Nothing can change what happened this last playoff game. Nothing can change that. Even if the Ravens go on to beat the Titans, 50 to zero in a regular season this upcoming year. Even if they go to play them in the playoffs and they beat them 50 to zero this upcoming season. That would be a beautiful thing and that'll make us all very happy, but it still can't erase what happened because it's forever there. And Lamar Jackson, in an interview, his memory, he got to think about that Titans game and got to reflect on it. Let's see what he said. He said, we're taking it one game at a time, not peeking ahead. That's what happened in the playoffs and we ended up losing to the team people had us favored over. It's any given Sunday. You can't underestimate no team, no opponent and that's what we did. So I'm looking forward to this 2020 season playing the Browns first. Don't underestimate your opponents. They caught us by surprise. That's all it was. And they, I think it caught everybody by surprise. Well, not everybody. I know Skip Bayless picked the Ravens to lose because of that whole Titans and Ravens six seed versus one seed thing. But it was a game that just, it was full of a lot of ugly. But it wasn't all ugly, just mostly ugly. And it was just an anomaly of what the season had been. Ravens did not play their game. They were not true to themselves. Like a lot of things that were happening on that day or really on that night, it was just different. This is playoff football, Ravens home game. You know how they do at home. You know how they do at the crib. Place was hyped. Place was going crazy. Finally back in the playoffs. It's been forever. And we not only back in the playoffs, we got the number one seed too. But when I went up there to go to the game, I brought this jacket. I brought a hoodie to wear over it. I brought a jersey. You know them jerseys be hot.  If it goes to overtime, I'm gonna still be in there rocking and yelling and screaming and all that. But it was warm. I could have wore shorts to the playoff game. Everybody could have wore shorts to the playoff game. We could have wore shorts, leave shirts, cut off shirts. It could have been, you could have went there so comfortable. So that was kind of like, wow, this is weird. And I had this feeling like, hmm. I don't think we're gonna lose. I don't think we're gonna lose but at the same time it's like, er. They could, but I don't expect it. But at the same time it's like, er. No, they'll be all right though. They'll just prove me wrong. Well, not if not prove me wrong because I wasn't thinking that the Ravens are gonna lose but they'll just, they'll make this fear go away.  But I get that uncomfortable feeling in a lot of games but playoff games for sure. But with the Ravens, they just, they didn't play that game. They didn't do it at all. And something else that Lamar Jackson said about this playoff game was that the Ravens beat themselves. Now, we definitely gotta give credit to the Titans because Titans, they played a major part in the Ravens losing that game. Titans beat the Ravens. There's no excuse because if it would have been a shoe on the other foot, then I wouldn't want to hear no excuse. Me being a Ravens fan, I was like, no, Titans just, they just yapping, no. So there's no excuses. Titans won and they beat the mess out of the Ravens in M&T Bank. But the Ravens, they certainly didn't do themselves any favors. The game that they played was not a game like they had been playing for the past 12 weeks. These dudes had won 12 games in a row and most of them in decisive fashion from running the ball. They ran, ran, ran, ran, ran, ran, ran, ran. But in this game, just nine times between Ingram and Gus, nine times. And we've talked about this over and over and over and over. So I know some of y'all tired of hearing about it but still, that's not gonna get it done. Now that we had a question from subscriber, now we could because we know Mark Ingram was hurt in that game, but we had a question from subscriber, somebody asked, they wondered if Gus was actually hurt too. And it was an undisclosed injury. And I said, well, if that was the case, I would hope that was the case for the reason why Gus only got like three carries. But anyway, but Ravens completely transformed that team that game. They said, running, what's that? Throw that out the window. We're just gonna pass, pass, pass, pass, pass, pass. And they did not stay true to themselves. And again, Lamar Jackson said, he felt like we beat ourselves. Now they certainly did lend a helping hand to the Titans and helping them get the victory because Ravens didn't play that game. Titans, they stuck to that game. Run a ball, run a ball, run a ball, play action. Play some good defense. Rinse and repeat, do it all over again. They did that. They did a very good job of it. But the biggest part about Lamar Jackson in this interview, he talked about peeking ahead. And we referenced the Pro Bowl with Lamar Jackson when he was speaking to Earl Thomas, when they were on the sidelines at the Pro Bowl and they talked about that exact same thing. They said, we gotta focus on every single game, like it's the Super Bowl. So when we do get to the playoffs in the Super Bowl, it'll be treated like any other game. We gotta be focused. We gotta treat every game like it's a big game. So when we get to the big game, it won't be overwhelming. When we get to the playoff game, it won't be overwhelming. And they talked about we got to do what got us there. We can't go away from what got us there. And that was the problem with the Ravens in the playoff game against the Titans. They went away from what got them there. But the peeking ahead, I could definitely see that. I could see them looking past the Titans. I think a lot of us were looking past the Titans because even though I did mention in the videos leading up to that playoff game, and I just felt like it's just meant to be. Ravens and Chiefs in the AFC Championship at M&T Bank, at the crib, third time's the charm. We finally gonna get these guys at home. But, and I knew we had to take care of business against the Titans, but I just felt like, I felt like the Ravens were gonna start off slow against the Titans and then end up just taking off. End up taking off, end up almost coasting. Playing their type of football that they had been playing. But they didn't do that. They didn't do that at all. So that just made us think like, whoa, who are these guys? What's coaching doing? What are these players doing? Like they had done everything that they hadn't been doing all year in that one game. You know what? We're gonna become a strictly passing team. They did that. You know what? We're gonna, our receivers are gonna drop everything that hits them in the hands. They did that. Lamar Jackson probably made his worst throw of the entire season in that game. It wasn't a throw that was too far. It wasn't a throw that was too short. It was a throw where he literally stared down the receiver and threw it directly to the Titans safety. Or was it the corner? I think it was a safety.  The Titans defensive back just stood there. He stood there. Like he was the receiver and Lamar threw it straight to him.  So there were so many anomalies because again, Lamar Jackson, even if you go back to his rookie year, Lamar Jackson, as long as he's been the Ravens starting quarterback, he's made some very, very good decisions for the most part. When he throws the ball, he makes some very good decisions. But in that Titans game, that was the worst throw. Now, he did have some other throws. He had some good throws. He had some bad throws. He had a little bit of everything. But one thing that he couldn't account for was the drops. Ravens did not struggle with drops consistently all year long. I know in the Seahawks game, Mark Andrews, he had his problems in that one, but over the entirety of the seasons, drops were not an issue for the Ravens. They really weren't. But in a playoff game, oh boy, you would think this was a bunch of practice squad players. And that's no offense to practice squad players, but that's just speaking to the level of play that we saw on the field. So Ravens certainly need to make sure they are extra focused this season. Ravens certainly need to make sure that they make sure that every opponent, they don't overlook anybody and they focus every single week because every single opponent presents a different challenge whether AFC opponent, NFC opponent, division opponent or not. Everybody presents something and they are going to look for ways to beat those Ravens. Everybody brings a different challenge. Everybody brings a different skill set. So Ravens need to make sure they focus. They have the team. They got the leaders. They got a coaching staff. But what they really need to do is not forget who they are. Play your game.  Because that would be one thing. It'd be one thing if in that playoff game, if the Ravens lost, but they stuck to who they were. That would be one thing. And I think a lot of us, we would have a much different feeling about last season. Then we would really be like, and not that we can't say Titans were the better team because they most certainly were because the team consists of players and coaches. And overall, we would feel like Ravens had the better team with players, but the coaching staff was out-coached in the Titans game. But it would have been a much better feeling, a much better takeaway, a much better heading into this 2020 season, a much better feeling of how last season went. It would have been, I mean, a loss will still be a loss, but at least we would have gone down swinging if the Ravens would have played their game. But they didn't. They didn't do it. They decided to be somebody who they weren't. So Ravens, just be yourselves. Be yourselves. Cause like my God TD fans talk said, that there is no better version of you than you. We out.


Hello, I am Dan Noonan, the Digital Preservation Librarian at the Ohio State University Libraries. Sue Beck and I will be discussing the journey we have taken at Ohio State over the past year and a half to document and understand our workflows that impact digital preservation and access to our digital materials. A year ago, we regaled you with our mouthful of acronyms and techniques, SIPOC, RACI, Rainwriting and Visualization, that we were using to shed light on our existing workflows. Today we will be discussing our initial recommendations that have surfaced from our workflow examination efforts. Sue, a Senior Systems Consultant and I are members of the University Libraries Information Technology Team and report to the Associate Dean for Distinctive Collections and Digital Projects. Sue and I are coming to you today from Ohio State in Columbus, Ohio, which occupies the ancestral and contemporary lands of the Shawnee, Potawatomi, Delaware, Miami, Fioria, Seneca, Wyandotte, Ojibwe and Cherokee peoples. The University resides on lands seeded in the 1795 Treaty of Grenville and the forced removal of tribal nations through the Indian Removal Act of 1830. We want to honor the resiliency of these tribal nations and recognize the historical context that has and continues to affect the indigenous peoples of this land. Additional information about our work can be found at our project Wikis located at go.osu.edu-dpa-workflow-analysis and go.osu.edu-dpa-digital-content-policy. In early 2020, the University Libraries formed the Digital Preservation Access Workgroup, or the DPNA, to guide the Libraries' policies, strategies and tactics for managing, preserving and providing access to its digital collections. Its initial charge was to identify and analyze our existing workflows that impact these processes. We engaged in utilizing three techniques to conduct the analysis and visualization, which came to us from the realm of process improvement, with roots in total quality management that continue to be used in lean and six sigma programs. This sidewalk exercise provides a very high-level view of our workflow or process, with a minimum of four and a maximum of seven process steps. These steps are aggregated up to a level of abstraction that still allows us to provide the unit with insight into their workflows. Building upon this sidewalk, we conducted the RACI exercise, which allowed us to identify for each process step the roles and their accompanying responsibilities. The RACI was an important bridge to the brainwriting process. It helped us identify who should be in the proverbial room for the brainwriting exercise. The brainwriting allowed us to dive deeper beyond those four to seven process steps and examine our workflows with a finer granularity, which ultimately allowed us to construct visualized process maps. While we had to adapt these traditionally face-to-face activities to being conducted and completed in a virtual environment, we successfully completed two dozen documented workflows, with a handful still in progress. We are currently analyzing how these workflows interconnect, or should, to have a more comprehensive knowledge of our workflows and processes. By highlighting the gaps and other potential barriers and opportunities in these process maps, we have identified areas that we need to focus on for process improvements. These process improvements and other initial recommendations have been documented in a report to our sponsors, and are the subject of the rest of this presentation. A more detailed discussion regarding SIPOC, RACI, brainwriting, and our visualization efforts can be found on our project Wiki. As with any project, there are challenges and benefits that we can identify as we progress, and while not complete, we have formulated our initial key discoveries. We have been told by many participants that these exercises have created the opportunity to examine, contemplate, and interrogate the processes and workflows for the first time. Further, it has encouraged systems thinking amongst our university library's colleagues, breaking them out of, or at least putting windows into, their silos. By augmenting the SIPOC process with the RACI, we have for the first time been able to document accountability, or lack thereof, for our processes and steps therein. As Sue mentioned, the DP&A has assembled an initial set of recommendations that contextualize the project, its activities, and initial key findings. The report identifies five key gaps, the implications of those gaps, provides recommendations to millerate those gaps, and concludes with categorizing the recommendations as quick wins or more long-term activities. The gaps concern how we process our digital materials, prioritize those activities, manage those processes, a resource to conduct the processes, and transparently document those processes. With the workflow analysis near completion, there are several key conceptual processing gaps that have surfaced. There is a lack of organizational prioritization process and governance, and process and project management, of which we will discuss in upcoming slides. Currently, all of our born digital processing is conducted in an ad hoc manner, due to lack of developed, articulated workflow and resource allocation. Therefore, university libraries need to develop and or implement standards and guidelines for good enough born digital accessioning and processing workflows. Further, it should commit to a more equitable resource allocation and prioritization for the identification and processing of born digital and at-risk audiovisual materials in our collections. While we have been diligently and iteratively standardizing our digitization processing workflow, they are not yet fully realized. Our capacity to digitize still outstrips our capacity to ingest content into the digital collections platform for preservation and access. The recommendations for improvement are inextricably linked to the completion of prioritization and governance workgroups recommendations, as well as preservation and digitization workflow design and the identification of bottlenecks that need to be re-engineered and optimized. With the loss of our temporarily audiovisual media specialist, our AV preservation and access program has been put on indefinite hold. We need to clear up the backlog of already digitized AV content that languishes in temporary storage space. This too is inextricably linked to the completion of prioritization and governance workgroups recommendations and the workflow re-engineering. In lieu of hiring a full-time permitted media specialist, we should establish a new workflow to optimize the preservation of and access to at-risk AV materials. In November of 2020, university libraries placed a moratorium on ingesting copyrighted works into the digital collections platform unless Ohio State has documented permission from the copyright holder or Ohio State is the copyright holder. Currently, the libraries do not have a risk assessment process in place for digitization and sharing of copyrighted material. This is further exacerbated by the lack of a copyright librarian at this time to implement and lead a process. However, copyright should not be an impediment to preservation. Therefore, university libraries should establish a process for risk assessment of digitized and born digital materials that allow us to ingest them into an appropriate preservation environment and allow us to share them to the extent we are allowed. We have been actively working on the gaps surrounding prioritization and governance since November of 2020 through the auspices of the digital content policy and governance subgroup. We approached this task from a change management frame of mind. First, we had to decide what the problem was we were trying to solve to which we developed the following statement. Quote, the Ohio State university libraries currently lacks a holistic approach to the governance and management of the activities to process born digital content and to digitize existing collection content that would facilitate our commitment to sustainable access, long-term stewardship, and preservation of this content for the benefit of our current and future users. From there, we needed to define the current state and vision of future state and then define the change we intended to affect along with the benefits it will bring. Those were the easy parts. We had that pretty well articulated and wrapped up in early 2021. We've spent the rest of the time thus far working on the process where we have ultimately defined what a project means to university libraries and have identified our common prioritization factors. We still have work in this area before we move on to determining how we will measure progress. The discussion regarding prioritization was particularly challenging as we can say we prioritize our work on a regular basis, but we have a hard time articulating the why and the how. Further, as we search for models and guidance on how to make prioritized decisions, we found there's a lot of advice and models for individuals, but a dearth for the organization, especially when having to establish cross-departmental priorities. We wanted to utilize a rubric that contextually understands the system capacity and allows us to match our needs to that capacity in an equitable manner. One of our team members eventually came across a tool that is being used at Case Western Reserve University for prioritizing digitization projects. We adapted it to our list of prioritization factors while adjusting the scoring and the waiting factors. It incorporates 18 factors within four categories of alignment, opportunity, readiness, and dependencies. The first three categories include positive scoring while dependencies are scored negatively. Finally, there are two initial show stopper factors. Has the collection been a session? And does this collection meet copyright risk assessment exemptions? By late October, we had conducted two tabletop tests of the rubric, which has led to its refinements. We are now in the process of determining how to implement, govern, engage its usage, and effectiveness. University Libraries lacks a cohesive approach to the end-to-end process and project management throughout the organization. This leads to annual reinforces our silos versus systematic methodology in conducting our work. You have many capable people within University Libraries who understand their roles and duties, but may not be fully aware of how their actions impact the efforts of others within your organization. Hence, the goal is to develop permanent solutions to address our processing gaps while acknowledging some gaps may be initially treated with a Band-Aid. In improving our process management, we will need to fill gaps via resource allocation and process re-engineering and optimization, but more likely through latter in combination with resource reallocation. To achieve this latter goal and based upon the workflow analysis, we need to re-engineer processes, especially the bottlenecks, optimizing the whole system, not just individual silos. We will identify a targeted demonstration project to analyze all of the workflows and make very specific recommendations related to process optimization. Within this framework, backlog, new projects, and day-to-day work must all be considered as part of the process and workflow. Further, we must provide appropriate University Library personnel training in effective process and project management techniques. This would include an examination of systems versus silos thinking. And finally, we need to develop, implement, and socialize our standardized, best, and good enough practices for process and project management. Some of the aforementioned gaps can be addressed by policy, process, and procedural improvements. However, there are others that can only be addressed through the appropriate resource allocations. While University Libraries is under-resourced in most areas compared to our peer institutions, there is a further imbalance of resources expended on physical objects as opposed to digital objects. Considering the current fiscal climate, creating and filling new positions as well as backfilling lost positions are less likely implementable recommendations at this moment. That is not to say they are any less important to the overall health of the organization. Process re-engineering to compensate for the lack of these resources is really just a Band-Aid solution. Therefore, we need to develop alternative pathways to success. University Libraries has a backlog of digitized and born digital content that is not appropriately described and processed in an acceptable preservation environment and or accessible to our users. Nor do we have the current human resource capacity to remediate this situation. This is further exacerbated by a lack of capacity for copyright risk assessment and archival processing necessary to facilitate the digitization in ingest processes. To expand our capacity, adequately handle our backlog, new projects, and our day-to-day work as well as begin to re-engineer our processes for efficiency, effectiveness, and equity. We need to go beyond just the process and consider the human resource implications for potential reallocation and career growth. University Libraries has deficits and expertise capacity across under-resourced areas for archival processing, processing born digital and audiovisual content, copyright risk assessment, metadata creation and remediation, and process and project management. It needs to develop internal expertise and skills related to these activities, which can be accomplished in conjunction with process re-engineering, position reimagining and reallocation, and targeted training and mentoring. University Libraries has documentation that articulates standard operating procedures, standards and guidelines, and best and good enough practices in regards to digitization, digital preservation, and providing access to our digital assets. However, it lacks a commonly understood and accepted central repository or portal for making these transparently available throughout the organization. To address this, and in conjunction with University Libraries' Intranet project, a place should be identified and or established for the deposit of this documentation. Additionally, in conjunction with process re-engineering and optimization, we need to develop a dashboard tool for the management of our digital assets. As we move forward with this project, we'll be looking to tackle the quick wins we identify in our initial recommendations report. This includes finalizing the prioritization rubric and its associated governance. Similar to documenting workflows, we also need to inventory and document the work we are doing. In conjunction with ongoing work to create the University Libraries' Intranet, we need to establish a documentation repository, or at least a portal to point to existing and future documentation that impacts our digital preservation and access processes, practices, and standards. And we look to conduct a kaizen event or events and build upon the outcomes for implementing long-term incremental improvements. You may ask with more than two dozen workflows, where do we start with process re-engineering? We utilize the theory of constraints, which considers the most important limiting factor, the constraint, that stands in the way of achieving our goal, and then systematically improving that constraint until it's no longer the limiting factor. The crucial factor here is the systematic approach, since localized optimization will only exacerbate these constraints. Based on the extensive visualization efforts conducted throughout the entire organization, we identified three areas that are fundamental strategic constraints in our system, copyright services, metadata initiatives, preservation and digitization. These constraints arise from various reasons, and although the process maps identify various gaps that contribute to the process flows coming to a halt at these units, we have to dig deeper in order to identify the root causes as well as possible solutions, and eventually create metrics to measure how effective and sustainable the proposed solutions will be. We are embracing the use of another business process management tool, that of kaizen, a Japanese term meaning change for the better, or commonly referred to as continuous improvement. We are planning to hold a kaizen event in order to bring the people closest to the process together and facilitate the discovery of a solution that works for them. Kaizen events are short term, usually a week long, but intense brainstorming and implementation sessions intended to improve an existing process. This kaizen event will bring the operators, managers and owners of these processes together in one place, in order to review the current state maps of our existing processes, then improve on the existing processes to identify future and desired state, document the proposed changes and identify how we plan to implement and then measure their success. Additionally, it provides the individuals at the heart of the process the opportunity to solicit buy-in from all related parties in order to sustain the proposed improvements. We will be utilizing an A3 tool to guide us through our week long kaizen event. Each day we will focus on certain areas and by the end of the week we will have a somewhat completed A3. It's important to note that the A3 must be maintained as a living document in order to track and measure the success of the implemented solutions and their sustainability until it's certain the improvements are part of the organization's transparent standard operating procedures. It is our sincere hope to implement process re-engineering recommendations that will flow from the kaizen event or events. We recognize the expertise in skill acquisition development cannot be achieved overnight, nor should they if they are to achieve true positive change. While an immediate impact point of view we can identify, establish and populate a documentation repo that exists with existing documentation over the long haul there will be further articulation, development and interactive refinement of our standardized best and good enough practices for university libraries, digital acquisition, digitization, processing, access and preservation activities. And as we quantify our work, tasks, collections, standards and practices we will need to iteratively develop and implement a dashboard toolkit to effectively view and manage our work in a transparent manner. Finally, as always, we will track and assess our success and document the heck out of the process sharing not only internally within the university libraries but with you, our colleagues. Thank you.


Hi, I'm Mr. T with R of Elements and I will introduce the symmetrical horn antennas designed for 5 GHz unlicensed band. Symmetrical horn antennas solve the biggest issues in the unlicensed bands, the out of R of noise, system loss and network scalability. All you need to assemble and install these antennas is a 5mm Allen key and 30mm wrench. We offer 7 symmetrical horn antennas with beam widths from 30 to 90 degrees and gain from 9.6 to 18.4 dBi. All the following RF features are valid for each one of them. As the name suggests, the radiation pattern of symmetrical horns has the same beam width in azimuth and elevation. There is only one main lobe and zero side lobes, meaning the average beam efficiency across all our symmetrical horns is 93%, which is important for excellent noise rejection. If you want to know more about beam efficiency you can check our short video by clicking the link in the corner or in the video description. The maximum gain is stable over the whole useful bandwidth, so the signal strength is constant regardless of the frequency channel used. Also the rest of the radiation pattern is stable over the whole useful spectrum, providing high coverage stability and reliability, especially for the CPEs at the edges of the sector. The horizontal and vertical radiation patterns are identical, which is yet another addition to the reliability of the symmetrical horn performance on both radio channels. Symmetrical horns feature twistboard, our proprietary wave-god connector that minimizes the RF power loss occurring between a radio and the antenna. Thanks to these favorable properties of symmetrical horns, you can collocate many more sectors compared to the traditional sector antenna technology, saving you money for the tower rental fees and thanks to the lack of side lobes, the neighboring sectors do not interfere with each other and let you get the most out of each access point radio. The performance stability and seven different beam widths and gains of symmetrical horns make them a superb antenna toolset for wireless coverage planning. Anything between dense narrow sectors to wide low density ones is possible. The adjustable down tilt of the horns lets you fine-tune the coverage and noise conditions. Whether it's adopting the coverage or putting up new sectors, there is absolutely no limit to the network scalability with symmetrical horns. It only depends on your need for the overall throughput. Thanks to the extra elevation beam width, symmetrical horns easily cover the null zone at the site. The coverage is reliable regardless of the landscape type, showing their strength, especially in the mountainous regions effortlessly covering the deep valleys. Our symmetrical horns are very robust. They are made of UV-resistant plastic, die cast, stamped and extruded aluminium. They have stainless steel hardware for long lasting durability in all kinds of climates. The main bolts have a black coloured surface coating, protecting them from seizing, extending the durability of the bracket. Symmetrical horns are lightweight, have a wide working temperature range and have a beautiful matte finish. And at the edge of the antenna is a water drain hole, so any condensed water simply leaks out. The installation of symmetrical horns is super easy. But before you start, make sure you know on which side of the pole you will be installing it on. Every symmetrical horn is pre-assembled to be installed on the left side of the pole. If you want to install it on the right side of the pole, flip the position of the bracket so the water drain hole is facing down once the antenna is installed. Also, if the pole diameter is larger than 49mm, flip the bracket for the best result. Once the antenna is up and aimed in the right direction, you can install the radio. It's extremely easy, since twist port lets you do that within a few seconds by a simple twist and lock movement done with one hand. With the twist port interface, the radio is connected and mounted all at once. How cool is that? With symmetrical horns, you can grow smart, reject noise and save spectrum. If you want to know more about our products, go to our product page to rvelements.com slash products.


Hello everyone, this is Alice Gao. In this video I'm going to discuss the first example on constructing a correct Bayesian network. This is the example in lecture 11 on slide 46. In this example we're given a Bayesian network between B and A and W. It's a causal chain going from B to A to W, and then we're asked to construct another correct Bayesian network while adding the variables into the network in reverse order. So the correct answer here is that the network is still a causal chain, but let's look at how I derived this answer. Based on the variable ordering, we are going to add the nodes to the network one by one, and for each node we are going to decide on the parents parent node of that node that we're adding. Step number one, add the first node to the network. There is nothing in the network yet, so there's not much we need to do here. Step number two, we need to add a new node A to the network. Now because W is already in the network, now we need to ask ourselves a question. What are the parent nodes of A? Notice here that there could be no parent, that's possible, or there could be any number of parents depending on how many existing nodes we have in the network already. So recall the rule for choosing the parent nodes. We need to choose a set of parents from the existing nodes, and we need to make sure the set is as small as possible so that this set can separate the current node from the rest of the existing nodes in the network. So given the set of parents, the node we're adding should be independent from the other nodes in the network. So we have two possibilities here. If A is already independent from W, given nothing, basically given no parents, that means we can directly add A to the network with no parents. This is one possibility. If A is already independent from W, we don't need any parents who make A independent from the existing nodes. But on the other hand, if A is not independent from W, then we need at least W to be A's parent. Given W, A is independent from everything else, but there's no other nodes in the network anyway. These are the only two possibilities given that we only have one node in the network so far before we add A. Now which one is the correct one? Let's go back to the original network and look at it. In the original network, we have a directed edge between A and W, which means if A changes, then our belief about W would change. So these two nodes are definitely not independent. So the first option is incorrect. We need to choose W to be the parent of A. So far so good. Let's look at step number three. Now we want to add B to the network, and we already have two nodes in the network. One is W, one is A. So given that there are two nodes in the network already, we have a few more possibilities. So here are the possibilities. Let's think about these in turn. We want to minimize the number of parents, the size of the parent set. So let's start by thinking about the smallest size we can have, which is zero. If we choose the parent set to be empty set, that means that we need to verify is B independent from both W and A. If B is independent from both W and A, then we can just add B to the network, make no connections. So B has no parent and then we're done. So is B independent from W and A? If we look at the original network, of course not. B and A are directly connected. So B is not independent from A. B is also connected to W indirectly through A. So B is not independent from A. B is not independent from W. This option does not work. So having a parent set of size zero does not work. Let's now think about having a parent set of size one. So given that we have two nodes, we have two possibilities. One is we can choose A to be the only parent of B, or we can choose W to be the only parent of B. Okay, let's look at these possibilities. First of all, can we choose A to be the only parent of B? Well, here we have to verify, given A is B independent from W. If our answer is yes, then yes, we can choose A to be the only parent of B. And this would be the minimum set and we're done. So looking at the original network, the answer is yes, right? Given our original network, we already know that knowing the value of A, this chain is cut off. So B and W are independent. So given A, B is indeed independent from W, which means this is the correct one, right? You can also verify that the other one is not correct. Because so the other one requires us to verify given W is B independent of A. Well, if we know the value of W, there's still a connection between B and A in the original network, right? So B and A are still going to influence each other. This is how I got to the correct answer that I showed you, where we still get a chain going from W to A to B. That's it for this video. I will see you in the next video. Bye for now.


All the way from a fresh off the stage of another very successful ad color show, we flew them in last night. I'm really, really thankful that they're here. We're honored that they're here to grace this stage. Having a conversation with, having a fireside conversation is the Chief Diversity Officer of Omnicom and also the founder of Ad Club, Tiffany Warren, in conversation with the new CMO of Endeavor, Bozoma St. John. Give him a round of applause. You can keep clapping. Yes, we're not at our seats yet. Thank you. Clearly, I like drama and theater. Correct. So yeah, we just found out that it just says keynote in the agenda. So technically, we can talk about anything. Oh, girl, good. Yeah. Let's talk about whatever we want. But we won't scare the organizers. We'll talk about what we're here to talk about, which is brands and crisis. You guys have come from many different places to hear this conversation with Boz. And I'm honored to sit here with her. Are we just finished? I feel like we're on a tour. Yes, we are. She just finished hosting the 12th annual Ad Color Awards. And she, yeah, give it up. Which was founded by Tiffany R. Warren. She had a couple of firsts there. The first to have, at least, was it five outfit changes?  Yeah, like four or five outfit changes. She was the first to come out on the stage to African drummers. Yeah, because African. Yeah. She was like calling the spirits into the room. The ancestors needed to be in the room. Yes. Yes. But I want to publicly thank you for doing an amazing job. So let's get started since we have a short amount of time. But today we're talking about brands and crisis. And we both know a little bit of something about that, particularly in my day job, in terms of working with clients on sometimes their brands and crisis, particularly around diversity and inclusion. And Boz can certainly talk about some of the experiences she had. And we talked about, particularly the title of this conversation. It feels like, at least on a day-to-day basis, we're holding our breath, waiting for something to happen. So how is that sort of holding your breath feeling, particularly in the role that you have, and as it relates to the brands that you've worked with over the years? Yeah. Well, I think this is, you know, this is a really important conversation for us to be having, especially as marketers and advertising executives and professionals that we are creating the conversations, we're creating the narrative that is happening in our world constantly in big ways and in small ways. And if we are in control of those narratives and we're reflecting culture, then it's important for us to pay attention to when culture shifts or moves or, you know, the temperature goes up. I don't think any of us in here are unaware that something has happened in our culture. You know, we are reacting a little more viscerally, maybe with more anger. We have less empathy. And so as we talk to our consumers and our audiences, we have to be not just aware of that, but be prepared for that. You know, gone are the days where you could have a marketing campaign that was 18 months ahead of time and know that everything was going to be fine when you launched it. Anybody out here still have 18 months? Yeah, do you guys have that one time anymore? Okay, because if you do, you should probably leave and go change that right now. So for me, it's a really important conversation to have because it's not just about being in crisis, but how do you prepare?  You know, it's like some of us eat better than maybe we would have when we were 20 something. Yeah. Lord knows I needed to.  Because you know that as you're aging and progressing that you need to take care of your body in a better way. Well, why don't we look at our brands that way?  And so why would we wait until something actually detrimental happens? Why are we not being prepared and getting ready for that inevitable thing? Yeah, you said you use inevitable. So you're saying in the sense of almost like an athlete and you need to be in training for what's going to happen. Absolutely. Yeah, because don't think that it's not going to happen to you. You know, this is this is the challenge that we're also in that even in this environment where we are constantly sometimes attacked, right, by what is happening in our greater culture, that we think, oh, well, let's just point the finger.   You know, but the truth of the matter is that we are all vulnerable. Every brand is vulnerable. Now we know that there is some real importance to having representation, not just in our boardrooms, but also in our ranks, you know, at every level, every level. Well, there's this theory that, you know, when you see a brand in crisis, it's because, you know, if you look at the team, it's a it's I don't know if it's an urban myth, but it's a theory that people like to work with that. It's a crisis of talent versus crisis of creativity, that they didn't have the right people in the room to raise their hand and say, you know, I don't think you should put that out there because this is what's going to happen. Or the person was too junior or less empowered to speak up to have you seen that? Oh, yes, but it's a combination of all those things. You know, it's like not having the right talent who are empowered to contribute, because like you could, yeah, of course, you could have a body in the room, but if they're not empowered to actually say something, yeah, then how's that going to help you? Yeah. It's also yeah, being unprepared for that moment, you know, pointing and saying, Oh, well, we we are perfect. We have we have an utopia in our in our rooms. Yeah. Therefore, we would never, it would never, it could never. And that's simply untrue. So we've had we have to make sure that, yes, we are representing, right, with the right types of people in the room across diverse experiences, that we have the preparation, knowing that something is coming again.  You know, so be prepared. But also it actually, and this is where it's like, you know, for us in the room in this very wonderfully intimate conversation, it helps on the other side to because when that thing inevitably happens to have already had not just plans in place, but action in place, actually does give you some allowances, you know, with the audience, right? Because knowing that Oh, well, this brand or this company has been doing the right thing time and time and time and time and time again. But this one little slip up, but they're going to get right back on it is a much easier conversation and much easier repair than sitting waiting for something to happen thinking you're perfect.  And so therefore, let's look at it from a brand standpoint, do they or should they have empathy or concern when it comes to or even a responsibility to the consumers, you look at the recent Nike work. I mean, that just didn't appear that was probably two years in the making. They prepared for all the inevitable inevitabilities and the backlash and, you know, the things that were going to come from the left and right about what they're doing. So it looks like Nike had a responsibility to consumers, but also to the people they put in the ads to make sure, you know, they obviously show them in the best light. In general, do you think they they should have that responsibility to their consumers? Yes, I think brands absolutely should have the responsibility, because honestly, again, we've our culture has changed in the way that we talk to our audiences and how involved they are in our businesses. And so we in turn have a responsibility to reflect the time, you know, and to take a position. And I think again, you know, back in the day, this is only like 15 years ago, but way back in the olden days, yeah, we would look at, you know, our brands as sort of cement blocks, you know, you couldn't see past the wall. And now our audiences require that they see through it, that there's transparency. I know it's like a buzzword, but transparency can become very painful, especially when you're in a company where there are differing opinions in that boardroom.  I know the kind of battles it must have taken. And probably still, right.  Yeah. Yeah. Someone said, someone said stocks represent sort of at Agheller, actually, that stocks represent sort of old school. So it took a dip, but sales represent the people. So, you know, when you're looking at taking chances as a brand, you know, obviously people reference stock price Yeah. But then look at the sales that went up about 31%. So looking at it in that sort of, you know, structure, where it's the people versus old school, or old street, Wall Street. I thought that was a very interesting way of putting it. The people spoke. Yes. And the other dimension, which is social sentiment, you know, I don't think we can discount that, especially today, where if we're talking about brands, we're talking about advertising, and we're talking about creating a narrative, we have to pay attention to all of those buttons. Now, that's fast. You know, that's that you're going to feel the reaction immediately, right? You're going to hear from specific people right now. Yeah. And so to me, it's like, well, if we're looking for the long-term health of our brands, especially if we're going to face any type of crisis, well, how can you create the trust and conversation with the audiences today, so that again, should that happen, we have a something to fall back on, you know, a conversation that's already trusted. And, you know, fans of Nike, whether they were current purchasers, future purchases or lapsed, showed up, showed up in a big way. I mean, it's been a long time since I've seen advertising retweeted or on, hell, I put on my own Instagram. I haven't worked for the brand. I was like, yeah, Nike, you know what I mean? And it's been a long time since I've seen advertising go viral in that way. So, you know, we have CMOs, we have a lot of marketing folks in the audience. And I think about this all the time, if we want to stick with the sports analogy or Nike, but you know, what kind of dream team would you build, particularly, you know, in a war room when a crisis happens? I mean, I'm going to put myself on the team because I do think that, you know, the CDO needs to be in the room to translate some things. But who else would you put in the room besides just the account team and, you know...  You know what I'm saying? Folks who ain't afraid. But you're right. No, actually, you know, I know it's like sort of a joke, but not really. The CDO absolutely needs to be in the room. You know, and again, not in name only. Correct. Someone who can actually... Oh, I'm never in a room in name only. I want to talk about you because I know you could talk. Oh, sorry. No, I mean, it's really critical. You know, I'll give you a real life example. You know, now I'm the CMO at Endeavour, which part of Endeavour is Endeavour Global Marketing, which is an agency-like group of people who advise and work with different brands. We recently started working with Papa Johns. Shout out to Victoria Russell. I see her. She's the Chief of Diversity and Inclusion. And when we were going to have the conversation about whether or not we would take on that business, for those of you who don't know, there's been a recent crisis at Papa Johns. And if you don't know that, again, please leave the room and just go do some research. You know what I'm saying? You don't need to be sitting here. You need to be doing some work. But anyway, when we went in to talk to the team, of course, the CEO, Steve Ritchie, the new CEO, was going to be in the room, the head of marketing, the head of tech. You know, there were a lot of people that were going to be sitting around the room. But what I asked about was whether or not the Chief of Diversity was going to be in the room, specifically Victoria. Because, to me, you can't even begin this conversation without having someone like her in the room. It doesn't exist. But I think it gets caught up in crisis management without looking at it holistically. Because when it comes down to it, you can attack the creative problem. But there's a systemic company issue as well. So having those individuals in the room are really... Yes. Because that's what I mean by the preparation. You know, this is not just a marketing and advertising issue. This is a cultural issue. And so what is happening with the people on the team? What's happening with the environment in which people are working? You know, without someone in that seat and in HR, there is no way to have a real productive conversation about how to move forward. You know, there's no way for us to create messages for the outside world if the inside is hurting. You know, if it's not right, so that you can't reflect anything positive when there's negativity running throughout the building. Because it's turning out the same issue. Oh, absolutely. It will keep happening. And so to me, it was really a combination of, yes, the internal and the external. And if I can't take a minute, I mean, I think this is really important, especially for all of us in this room right now, who are, again, we're all part of the same community. Even though we may work on different brands and some of them competitive, it's really important that we support each other. You know, not in just some superficial, you know, la, la, la, yes, kumbaya type of way. You know, it's like, Victoria, can you raise your hand, please, girl? Thank you. There she is right there. You know, please don't let her leave here without you saying something positive to her or giving her a piece of advice or something that will enable her to do her job better. Because honestly, again, it's like if we're in this and we're going to make sure that our brands and our business and our industry is healthy, we need to be able to support each other. And so if there's a crisis that happens at any of our brands that we know of that are strong, you know, companies that we want to see succeed, then let's reach out. You know, there are people there. You know, it's not just a brand. And so how do we help our people? So let's get into the fun stuff. Tell me about, we talked a little bit about Nike, but and you can protect the innocent or you can name names. But tell me about the companies that you think are doing it really well. Like have done it well. Or have done a mea culpa well. Like, they've come out of a crisis really well. Because to your point, you know, sometimes you just have to admit that you made a mistake. And then sometimes you see where it's covered up or whatever. But who's done a mea culpa really well? Yeah. Well, most recently, I think Starbucks has done a really great job. You know, their crisis was was, you know, probably our all of our worst nightmare, right? Where it's like, there is someone who does not embody the values of the company, but who is face to face with your customer every day, you know, who took action in a way that was negative, you know, it was embarrassing to the company. I happen to like Howard Schultz a lot. And I know that, you know, at least our interactions have not been reflective of the way that his employee reacted to the black men that were in his in his store.  Yeah, you know, that she wouldn't want her sons in one of their stores and have the cops called on them. And so I thought that their reaction was really positive in that, you know, to shut down all of their stores, right? Even for one day costs about $50 million. Yeah. You know, if we think about what that means, you know, it's like, there are a lot of people who, you know, a lot of criticism I saw, which said, oh, well, you know, it's just one day, one day is not enough. And I was like, word? I mean, obviously, most people haven't been through one day diversity and inclusion training. Okay. It takes a lot. It takes a lot. Yeah. And I was like, yes, even one day, one day, I challenge all of us to shut down for one day to pay attention to this. That's how important that was. Yeah. You know, it's like, one day seems like, oh, well, there's 365 days when they do 200 days, you know, and it's like, I'm sorry, what, you know, but when you translate that into money, yeah, you know, it's like, if we were to invest $50 million in anything, in anything, but actually what came out of that too, which is a probably little known is that the two women who filmed that interaction actually went on to start a not-for-profit that actually helps bring people together from different sides. They wanted to bridge, you know, allies with people of color. And it's a remarkable story. And so much goodness has come out of that one act. So, you know, even from a corporate level, great, but for a society level, we now have an organization that's going to fight to bring people together, which is really cool. Incredible. Yeah. So yeah, so I thought that was really good. So that's your number one. Yeah. You know, we have a few more minutes, like seven, just to be exact. You know, for me, I mean, I think about brands who don't embrace this, and they stand in fear. Now, you have, and we've had conversations about how fear immobilizes you, particularly, and we've known each other for a long time. We've been through inaugurations, and I can just go down the list of all the stuff we've been through. And sometimes fear runs through, you know, our lives in our career and how we approach things.  What happens when you, I mean, you can kind of tell when a brand stands in fear. What are your sort of, what's your advice for brands who stand in fear who don't stand up for something? Yeah, well, I mean, you said you said it really well that, you know, fear immobilizes us. And at the beginning, we talked about holding your breath. You know, I wanted us to try a little exercise, okay? On the count of three, we're all going to hold our breath, okay? It's not a hard exercise, guys. I know it's early, but, okay? One, two, three. It's starting to hurt.  Okay, we got to get, okay, we got to do some cardio. I love you, though. I feel like I'm so ashamed about you.  You know what? I care about you, though. Oh, the gloves are off. Okay. Okay. See, what happened was, I really care about you, though. You know what? I care about your health. You know what I'm saying?  Anyway, my point is, it's a crisis. It's a crisis. It's true. But that's exactly it.  Blood rushes from your brain. It goes to the core, you know, to keep you alive, right? But the challenge is that that's essentially what's happening to our companies too, is that everyone is holding their breath, waiting for that crisis and waiting for something to happen. And we're not using our brains and our limbs, you know, to help figure out how to make those situations better. You know, to prepare for that. It's like, yeah, if you're going to go scuba diving, you're going to get in a tank.  So why is it that we're not doing that in our companies? You know, why are we not being prepared for that deep water? Deep water is coming. Jaws is out there. So I mean, in the last few minutes, I think the question really is, is how do we normalize this behavior? Because when we were preparing for this, they were using words like courage and brave. And when things are not normalized, we think it's courageous and it's brave. So when do we get to a point where it's not brave or courageous for a brand to react the way they do in crisis and or even be well prepared for it? How do we normalize it? Well, I think that's, you know, it's interesting because the way that you normalize things is by literally talking about it, doing it, right? It doesn't feel like a strange act once you are doing it. You know, it's like anything else. It's like, if you get practice, you feel much more confident in the action. And that's the way to normalize it.  Although I use the Jaws music and I made reference to deep water and sharks. And you had us hold our breath. I sure did. And I need a cardio workout. Oh my God. But it's really enough lifting conversation. It is very, in the last two minutes, it's really up there. I want you to leave here feeling uplifted, you know, because it is true though that, you know, this, what can be a really negative experience and, you know, situation in our brands and our companies can actually be a way to bring us together. You know, how much more you know, tied are we once we are all fighting towards the same goal of changing our situation. You know, and again, if we do it over and over and over and over and over again before that moment happens, we are much better prepared. And that happens at all levels. Again, it's like, you know, who's in the room? Yeah, you need your CDO in the room. You know, we need, yes, we do need the marketers in the room. We need our press people in the room. We need the CEO in the room.  Yes. Those eyes and ears to kind of point out things that they may not be thinking of. Absolutely. I think another piece of it too, and we heard it this weekend, when it comes to the concept of privilege, you know, you have to spend your privilege, don't hoard it.  And so I think brands have to do a better job at spending their privilege and not just on, you know, corporate social responsibility efforts, but really truly think about the consumer and how to change society because it's not being done in government. And so we as corporations have a responsibility and brands have a responsibility to put good in the world. I'm so glad you brought up CSR because that's a really important point too. You know, that that's not just like, you know, the folks sort of on the side who don't get the attention.  You know, it's a really important part. By the way, it can be great marketing. Yeah. And great advertising as a platform. Warby Parker, by the way, does a great job of that, you know, and that CSR is a core part of how they communicate out into the world. And so we can all do that. Yeah, and be mindful, you know, because you can, it's so funny, I was joking with Victoria, I'm like, you can sell pizza and still be responsible. Yeah. You know what I mean? It's like, those two things don't have to be exclusive. Love pizza. It's true. We all love pizza. Love pizza. According to you, I can't eat it. Should love people. Well, no. You know what I'm saying? Yeah. Well, we'll talk about that. We'll talk about that sideline. So any final words about brand activism and just branding? Yeah. Yeah. I just, I, again, I just want to remind all of us that you know, the brands that we represent or that we work for, aren't, they don't live without us. You know, that people make up the brands. And sometimes we forget that. And that we then have the power to change the conversations, to empower new narratives, you know, to create a world in which we want to be in as corny as that sounds. But that we are really empowered to do that. And by the way, we should be looking at ourselves. I'm talking about the individual, you know, that if you are sitting thinking, I've got it perfectly right. I'm super liberal.  Right. Here's the thing.  I hope you'll appreciate it. I hope so too. Okay. Because if you, if you don't, this is definitely going to go all sideways. Okay.  I got black friends. I'm like, well, then where are your black friends when you have a pipeline issue? Where are those people?  I don't understand where your black friends are at when you've got job openings, you know? So, but the truth is that like, if we all are looking internally and we're looking at ourselves as a way to actually change, because we are not perfect, and so we should figure out the way to try and not just make ourselves better, but then in turn, our companies, our environments better. I think we'll end on that. Thank you, Bose. Thank you. Thank you so much.


Hello everyone this is Amit Dan of amitdan.com You are watching one of my Egyptra videos and today I am taking you inside a pyramid in Giza, Egypt. The pyramid of Teddy is a smooth sided pyramid located in central Sakara. It was one of the earliest pyramids containing pyramid text dated 2300 BC. King Teddy was the ruler of the 6th dynasty. The Teddy pyramid doesn't look extraordinarily on the outside. This is the only pyramid in which I went inside. The entrance tunnel was not present and the tour guide asked people with heart or other conditions not to enter. You have to kind of crawl in a half sitting position for a few minutes through the long descent of 1800 meters of narrow tunnel to enter the chambers. Once inside it's shockingly transports you to another world. The ceiling is covered with lots of stars and the walls are covered with spills of pyroglyphs. There are several passages and chambers inside such as a funeral, sir dub and antechamber, the King Teddy's burial chamber. Moving from one to another you need to bend over as the door-like entrances and short tunnels are made of stone and cannot support most people standing at full height. Like many other pyramids or tombs, the Teddy pyramid has been broken in two and robbed by tomb robbers. The experience of seeing inside a pyramid was mind-blowing. This is something I have been dreaming of all my life and it felt different upon achieving it. Thank you for watching this video. There will be more videos coming up so I'll see you shortly. Thank you. Hold me if I have a hand. I suppose a baby cannot reach. I mean, if I have a baby I suppose it's too simple. They want. They can't carbonate. Generally carbonating is pretty effective. They just write numbers but no dates. I'm just trying to figure out what's going on.