keynote speaker for today, Julian Brave Noiskat, a member of the Canem Lake ban Tisgeskin and a descendant of the Lilawat Nation of Mount Curry. Julian is a writer and filmmaker currently based in the Pacific Northwest. He's a brilliant thinker who works at the intersection of climate journalism and advocacy for indigenous rights. Noiskat's work has been recognized with numerous awards, including the 2022 American Mosaic Journalism Prize, which honors excellence in long-form narrative or deep reporting of stories about underrepresented or misrepresented groups in the present American landscape. In 2021, he was named the Time 100 Next list of emerging young leaders for his work at the center of the climate crisis. Julian is my great honor to welcome you here to the University of Michigan and to the Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy. I know what you're thinking.  I've been thinking about names and naming. To have a name. To give a name. What's in a name? What is a name? And what is it to name? It's probably hard not to think about these things when your parents and ancestors gave you a name like Julian Brave Noiskat.  TSA guy hit me with one of those on the way here. I think for some it might be the first time they've encountered a real-life Indian. I'm sure they've heard native names before. You know like Sitting Bull, Crazy Horse, maybe John Redcorn from King of the Hill. But when a real-life Indian is staring them down, I often feel like there's some curiosity on the other side of the gaze. Some desire to understand, maybe to inspect my difference. Like maybe on some gut level, people get that there must be some significance to a name. And indeed there is. Sometimes my family and I will sit around and tell stories about the Indians we know with big names. Growing up in Oakland there was a family who were often unhoused with a last name that could be rendered alternatively as shot with two arrows, shot twice, or just shots. It was as though their very name like their family was restless. It moved here, it moved there, did not want to stay put. It did not want to be singular. And it did not want to be made legible to the state. My dad remembers two Oakleys, brothers, best friends, who used to run around the res together in the 60s and 70s named Klabi and Kanki. Except in our Shushwap English Pigeon, their names were rendered with Salish Phenology, a glottal stop placed after the K. Klabi and Kanki. Klabi and Kanki are gone now. When you say their names, your palate decolonizes, at least for a syllable or two. And of course there are some Indians whose names received rather unfortunate English translations. One of the crow scouts who rode with General George Armstrong Custer was named Maritathi Dakkarush. History remembers him as white man runs him. It's hard not to think about names when you're an Indian. We are peoples with big and often powerful names who understood the power of naming, the power of the name one carries, and also the power of the names we give to others, to humans, to places, and to the other than human world around us. The University of Michigan invited me to stand up and offer words upon your graduation. I am humbled, humbled by their request. It was not so long ago that I was one of you sitting down there looking up and listening on my big day, not talking, definitely not speechifying, just waiting for my name to be called. So when I, a writer, a filmmaker, an activist, and an indigenous man thought about what I should say, I thought about words and how much they matter, and about names which in all the galaxy of words are a particularly strong constellation. Today I want to talk to you about choosing words well and with care, and about the significance of names. I want to talk to you about names in part because for hundreds of years the United States and Canada and many other nations across the world tried to wipe indigenous names off the face of this earth. When my ancestors were baptized and sent to schools built to eradicate their Indianness, church and government officials changed their names. I'm not talking about bestowing a nickname, or adding an honorific, or making something easier to pronounce in English. I'm talking about the wholesale eradication of names, the dismantling of the structures of nomenclature, the deletion of identities from the historical record and eventually from all human memory. When they baptized my ancestors the missionaries would give us Indians just one name, a first name. So not too far back in my family's family tree I have an ancestor who the missionaries must have called some Indian named Archie.  Many of my relatives still walk around with those first names for last names. And as the missionaries erased our names and eradicated our identities they submitted our children to systematic cultural deprogramming. The Truth and Reconciliation Commission in Canada has deemed this a cultural genocide, a cultural genocide. At one of the schools my family was sent to, St. Joseph's Mission in Williams Lake, British Columbia, a ground penetrating radar study recently identified over 90 potential unmarked burials. At another school my family was sent to, the Kamloops Indian Residential School, a similar search identified over 200. Canada operated some 150 schools like St. Joseph's and Kamloops. This country, the United States, operated more than 350, 350. General Richard Henry Pratt who founded the first American Indian boarding school in the United States described the goal of these schools as to, quote, kill the Indian and save the man. All of the Indian there is in the race should be dead, said Pratt. In that continent wide campaign to kill the Indian in the child we are now learning that thousands of actual Indian children perished. That not long after the church and government took their names many of those native babies, native toddlers, native children, native adolescents, native teenagers were themselves dead and in the ground. Let me tell you some of what they killed. In the traditions of my Sikwetmuch and Statlian peoples names could either be inherited or earned and names are remembered. My family remembers them. We retell them through story and song. Descendants honor our ancestors by keeping their names alive. Some names like the last name I carry, Noiskat or Naweeskit, Naweeskit as it was originally pronounced, mark descent and relationship to ancestors. And I venture to guess that like me, many if not most of you carry last names that mark your descent and your relationship to your ancestors too and in that way perhaps our people are not so different. Other Sikwetmuch names though like the one carried by my ancestor Tien Meshen recognized a person's deeds on this earth. Tien Meshen is a combination of two words, Tienem meaning to go around and Schenck meaning rock. As it was told to me, my ancestor Tien Meshen was a war chief who confronted settlers and gold miners coming into the Sikwetmuch peoples country. As those settlers intruders went around and threw a rocky past, Tien Meshen would impress upon these squatters and fortune seekers the importance of abiding by our indigenous laws. There aren't that many stories like that that still survive so I feel lucky to know that story because for my people to name someone or something is to be able to tell a story, to endeavor to understand and tell their truth. And in many instances if you could name someone or something you might also know how to sing its song. The morning before the Williams Lake First Nation announced that over 90 potential unmarked graves had been identified at St. Joseph's Mission I had a sweat ceremony with the Williams Lake Chief and a few other men. And in that sweat lodge a statly young man, a man from my people, sang the song of my grandfather's grandfather, Nkashusha, the hereditary chief from Shamakwam, whose tax name was Harry Peters. Children from Shamakwam, like children from Canem Lake, were sent to St. Joseph's and other schools. And in all likelihood some of those children did not return. I acknowledge Nkashusha today because I hope to stand in the strength of his leadership, his legacy, and his song. A song that was sung for me on a very important morning. You see Nkashusha was a celebrated leader. He was one of the chiefs who signed the 1911 Lee Watt Declaration which reads in part, we claim that we are the rightful owners of our tribal territory. We have always lived in our country. At no time have we ever deserted it or left it to others. We are aware, we are aware, the government claims our country like all other Indian territories. But we deny, we deny their right to it. We never gave it nor sold it to them. We speak the truth and we speak for our whole tribe. I invoke Nkashusha's words today because like him I am asked to speak. And when ground penetrating radar is finding the bodies of my ancestors' children, children who did not have the opportunity to beget their own descendants and become ancestors in their own right, voice becomes an existential responsibility. I remember and honor Nkashusha's name so that like him I might carry my responsibilities in this world to myself, to my ancestors, my descendants and to you all here today well because names come with responsibilities. That's the way it is in many of the indigenous communities I've visited. Names come with responsibilities. One of the men who has helped me to return to our sequelae clans and life ways is a hereditary chief from the Asquiat First Nation named Francis Johnson Jr. Francis spends a lot of time up in the high country hunting and down at the river fishing. And everywhere he goes he recalls the stories and names that connect us to our places. His name, his hereditary name, klechwoman-esked means to go up high. And that's appropriate because klechwoman-esked is often going up into the mountains where the memories of our ancestors still live. And he knows that to carry forward our ancestors' memories we have to pass that knowledge on to responsibility all of us have to pass on our knowledge. And that's why when he goes klechwoman-esked invites his brethren like me to come out with him and to learn on the land. And it just so happens that before we even knew each other klechwoman-esked and I both attended the same potlatch, the same ceremonial gathering where many songs, dances, meals, and gifts were shared in the remote valley of Bela Kula, British Columbia. Bela Kula is a river valley cut into the coast mountains by retreating glaciers and rising seas. And it's one of the most beautiful places, the most absolutely stunning places I've ever seen. And there in that valley at the mouth of the Bela Kula River in 2018, the Moody family of the New Hulk Nation passed the title of Nazmada, Nazmada meaning heaven, from Larry Moody Sr. to Larry Moody Jr. The name Nazmada comes with the responsibility to care for their family's ancestral village site at a place in the valley the New Hulk call Snoot Lee. And it also comes with the responsibility to give. You see a New Hulk culture like many indigenous cultures, the person who is considered the wealthiest is the one who gives the most. And that, that is the function of the potlatch. In 2015, the elder Moody, Larry Moody Sr., hit the $1 million jackpot in the provincial lottery. He used the winnings to buy cars for his brothers and a Harley for his junior. And much of the rest he put into the gifts for that potlatch that I attended. Into traditional foods like salmon and venison. Into piles upon piles, I mean mounds of winter blankets. Into originally carved and painted traditional art. And into money that he put into other people's pockets. Because for native people to have a name, to have a name like Nazmada, to have a name like Klehwoman-esked, there is a responsibility that comes with that to give. A few weeks ago, I found myself at another potlatch. This one in Sitka, Alaska was put on by Louise Brady, a herring lady from the Kicksuddy clan of the Raven Moody of the Slinkett Nation. The Slinkett of what is now Southeast Alaska have been harvesting herring, which they have given the name YAH in their language, for at least 10,000 years. That means that the Slinkett's ancestors started pulling herring and herring eggs out of the ocean about the same time that Mesopotamians started settling down to grow fields and raise livestock. And according to the Slinkett tradition, the first herring were harvested in the hair of a Kicksuddy woman named YAH Shah, the first herring lady who rested her head on a rock perched above the herring spawning grounds. And when she rose from that rest, her inky locks were caked in the golden translucent row of the fish. The Kicksuddy and the herring ladies were such good stewards of the herring that in living memory, the Slinkett used to be able to harvest herring eggs by skimming a special herring rake across the water. There were that many herring in Sitka. But nowadays, it's not so easy to get herring eggs anymore. In the latter half of the last century, the herring were incorporated into a commercial fishery that provided raw materials for fertilizer, for animal feed, and for fish food, and that also supplies the lucrative market for Kazunoko, a delicacy consumed by the Japanese on New Year. And in just a generation, as commercial fishermen have fished and fished and fished too much, herring stocks have collapsed. There were once seven commercial herring fisheries in Southeast Alaska. Today, there are just two, a decline that reinforces a multi-decade and global trend. At present, herring stocks have been nearly completely depleted in Japan, in Norway, in Nova Scotia, in East England, and in Washington State's Puget Sound, where I live. You might have never thought about herring, but this is no trivial matter. Herring, it should be said, feed everything.  And when those forage fished windell, other parts of the ecosystems they sustain can also falter. And so at the potlatch for the yaw, the slinket named for herring, Louise Brady, a kick-study herring lady, a yaw-shaw, challenged all in attendance to imagine what it might look like to celebrate, to protect, and to give to the herring, to give to those little silver fish the same way that they have given, have always given to the slinket and to many others. Louise asked us to consider the responsibilities she holds as a herring lady, and in turn what responsibilities we hold as people who have heard and considered the gift of that story and the name of the herring lady. Because I believe and Louise believes that names bestow responsibilities on their listeners and on their witnesses too. They bestow responsibilities on you. Now, you might be wondering, why is this guy going on and on about names? Well, as I said, for centuries, I'm not talking for like ten years, for hundreds of years, innumerable policies, innumerable practices, and innumerable processes were devised and enacted to rid society of names and responsibilities like the ones I have just named and recalled. What I am humbly suggesting is that we remember and consider the power of names. That naming matters. That as good students, citizens, and policy makers, you are going to be confronted with all sorts of realities, problems, and challenges out there in the broken world we have inherited. And as you go about that world, just as Tlech Homen asked, goes about his, from high up on the mountain to way down by the river, I would suggest that you seek to understand, to have empathy, and in due time to name what you see and encounter appropriately with words carefully considered to represent the truth, the truth about our shared planet with accuracy and with respect. And that this is an essential, perhaps even sacred responsibility. In her award winning book, Braiding Sweetgrass, Robin Wall Kimmerer of the Citizen Potawatomi Nation writes, quote, names are the way we humans build relationships, not only with each other, but with the living world, their fundamental building blocks. Now this might sound like simple folk wisdom or even common sense, but I think our society keeps getting it wrong. Among the many crises we face, of health, of climate, of democracy, we face, I believe, a crisis of words and a crisis of naming. Right now, Vladimir Putin, one of the most powerful men in the whole entire world is calling the Russian invasion of the Ukraine a country led by a Jewish head of state, a campaign for, quote, denazification. President Donald Trump, the former and still aspiring leader of the free world, has described our rapidly changing climate as a, quote, hoax invented by the Chinese. The wind got mad at that one. I guess the wind's voting for Trump. In school boards across the nation, parent activists are decrying a more accurate account of history as, quote, unquote, critical race theory. Insurrectionists dare to call themselves patriots. For some, the common courtesy of using the gender pronouns a fellow human identifies with and prefers is considered a step too far. And on the cable network with the largest audience on television, by far, much of what I have just said would likely be called fake news. If democracy is the collective expression of our views and values through votes, I wonder how much of today's dysphoria can be traced to something off kilter within ourselves, to people unmoored from place, from community, from social role, from communal responsibility and from social reciprocity, to the turmoil of workers chasing jobs and livelihoods far away from familiar hamlets, to the young people floating through social media platforms and the pensioners flipping through television stations, to the sick who are denied their fundamental right and the dignity of healthcare, to the good traditions that are dying, to the special places that are homogenizing, to the names and responsibilities no longer given and too often forgotten. And sometimes I wonder, I wonder what our world might be like if the policy makers who took this land had let some of those traditions, responsibilities, and names live. If more of us sought to remember, understand and name the parts of our humanity, indigenous and otherwise, that were nearly completely annihilated. I'm currently writing my first book and co-directing my first documentary. And in each of those projects, I've been thinking a lot about the power and significance of naming and of names, including and especially the power of my own. You see, I once thought about names as static, as something you received at birth and maybe came into a flash as an adult or early career professional. But along my journey, advocating for climate and environmental justice in Washington, D.C., reporting from indigenous communities across North America and beyond, and holding tight to survivors and relatives as we searched the grounds of St. Joseph's mission for ancestors and for answers, I've come to realize that names are not discovered. They revealed and worked towards across a lifetime and sometimes across many lifetimes as names carry stories and accrue stories and songs over generations. And so let me tell you, let me tell you what I'm learning about my name, Julian Brave Noisecat and also about myself. Noisecat, my last name, is derived, as I said, from the ancestral name Nwiskit. No one remembers what Nwiskit means anymore. No one. No one in the whole world. I've asked my grandmother, who's a fluent speaker of our Sikwepmukh language, but she can't come up with a translation. In an old ethnographic text, I've been looking all over for this, I found reference to a warrior with a similar name, Nwisasken, who helped bring an abusive man to justice near the Fraser River. And look, I mean, everybody wants some sort of like justice-seeking hero type to be their ancestor, so I thought that was pretty dope. And I don't know if Nwisasken is my ancestor, but part of me would really like to think so. But what I do know, what I do know, is that in the 1800s, the name Nwiskit definitely belonged to a man named Copper John from Tschuechum, which is in the Kerabu region of British Columbia near the Fraser River. And then it belonged to my great-grandmother, Alice, who raised my father when his own parents, who were all messed up from the residential schools, could not. And what I also know is that one night, in 1966, when my dad was seven years old, Alice went out in a blizzard to look for her husband, Jacob, who had been out drinking. And she froze to death. After Alice was gone, there were no noise cats anywhere in the whole world until my father married my mother, reclaimed Alice's name, and passed it on to me and to my sister. We may never know. I may never know what Nwiskit means or to which ancestor it originally belonged. But what I do know is that to be a noise cat is to be among the last of your name, to be a survivor dangling on the limb of a family tree they couldn't quite chop down. Julian, my given name, connects me to my mother's late best friend, Julia, to my great-grandmother, Julia Kraus-Peters, the daughter of Nkashusha, to my cousin, Julianne, who is learning our language so that she can help me teach the next generation of speakers, our kids, our nieces, our nephews, our cousins. And to King Julian, king of the kingdom of Madagascar, and if I recall from the Madagascar franchise, also the self-proclaimed king of the Central Park Zoo. He was a hereditary chief in his own way. And lastly, brave, my middle name connects me to, and you're going to be surprised by this, of all people, my late and very, very pale white grandmother, Suzanne, an Irish-Jewish orphan who may not have been native but who understood the power of a name who gave me a quality to aspire to in my own and who I think had a sense of humor, maybe a bit politically incorrect, but a sense of humor, nonetheless, insisting that our only half-native grandchild go around being called a brave. Today, the Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy at the University of Michigan is going to call out the names of 171 graduates. When they call out your name and put it on a degree in your hands, I want you to think about the ancestors who gave you that name, maybe your parents who are here, maybe their parents, their parents before that, back, back. I want you to think about their deeds, their good deeds, their bad deeds, and all the ones otherwise.   Chuk, Kuk's Jechem. Thank you. Jillian, thank you so much for those powerful and moving remarks and advice for our class. We are going to have a little bit of an interlude now with a wonderful...


Great welcome to July set news. My name is Rob and we got a lot of things to go over So just as the thumbnail and title suggest there's actually some good news from the Federal Reserve We're gonna take a look at exactly what they said yesterday before that. We'll do a quick market cap We'll talk about the red day. That is crypto. We're talking about who's in the money who's out of the money I'm talking about liquidations plus we're gonna talk about a little negative decoupling not the decoupling you want But the decoupling you deserve We'll take a look at that as Fed comments and then we're gonna talk about Because we there's a big discussion about quantitative easing and quantitative tightening We're gonna take a look back at history. I'm gonna show you exactly what happened the last time the Fed came out and said we're gonna do some quantitative tightening and Surprise it is not good. And then lastly we'll take a look at how 50 plus Legislations as far as bills are pending in Congress and how Sam Bakeman freed CEO of FTX Schools everybody in this nice little video. So we'll go over all those things and we'll do a Q&A at the end but first let's take a look at what is going on today and You got to remember I know everybody's a little bit down the dumps because no one likes to be in a prolonged bear market But we knew it wasn't gonna be easy did anybody say this is simple if it was so easy everybody would do it that's just not how it works and You just have to be mentally prepared for the long slog that is ahead of that is ahead of all of us and Some of you have done this once before some of you know twice three times five times before so it's not new to you But just remember yes Inflation is there and of course it eats up the dollars that are in your bank account But you know like I said here aetherium just did that might last 24 hours, but remember These things gonna keep happening we might even go down we might I mean who knows I don't know We could go down further or we could go up nobody has really much of a Crystal ball, but if I take a guess at it probably gonna be in for some more pain But remember the strong do win in the end So we're gonna take a look at some positive news and some negative to give you a little balance for the day So right now we had a pretty good Piece that happened for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq We're gonna talk about some positivity that the Fed did and what I do for the market. Absolutely nothing It actually sent us into the other direction As far as the red day so right now we got Bitcoin down 0.7 percent. Why well, we'll take a look Ethereum down 5% good news though tether and USD coin are stable and Up actually 0.1 percent.  All right, let's take it for what it is Tron is up for some reason if you try on holders and everything else is pretty much red. Jeez This is a pretty red except for sell out 12.5 percent And I don't need to tell you because you look at your portfolio just like I do So the question that I had was what the heck is going on here. So first of all I'm gonna jump ahead real quick. So when I see numbers like this go down I expect the S&P to be down and Nasdaq to be down as well because they are correlated I've been talking about this about this for months. However, if we take a look today, let me refresh this This is up 2% for today. It's pretty good 2.18 percent so still up and of course Nasdaq I believe is still up as well and that's the one that's more closely correlated but not today So if you want to see some Uncorrelation of the markets, you got it. Unfortunately, it wasn't aware that you wanted to be so why is that? Well, if we take a look we can look at TA and all those things I'm not a TA guy. I'm just not there's way better channels than me to take a look at TA Anybody will tell you that but there is something to be of notice here. This is from into the block and You can see right here This is just for Bitcoin itself as far as like holders in the money and out of the money right now right now You've got not too many people I mean it like half as far as into the money as far as bitcoins Remember if you're out of the money, you probably got in at 2020 2021 maybe 2022 and you're not in the money because Honestly, you haven't been around for quite some time now Maybe some of you got in you sold but this is the statistics we have and when you got a lot of people who are still a little bit in the money and There is a bear market and there are the macro events that are going on which we have talked about at great length Let me take a look at you just the GDP worn Ukraine the lockdown to China You can take a look inflation rates all those things right You're still gonna see a little bit of people in the money And if they need some they will probably sell some because you got to pay the bills People got to keep the lights on that's just that's just how it is However, I think as you start to see more people out of the money Which at some point people like you know what just out it would make a lot of sense to sell some people will But I feel not that I can have any crystal ball But I feel that there's a lot There's a little bit more of max pain to go through and that is what it is and also just remember this as far as holders composition by time Address is according to their weighted average 60% of people in Bitcoin have hold held for over a year Diamond hands. Good for you guys 33% one of 12 months and then of course less than a month is seven percent now I am heavily in this range in the one year plus actually soon like five years plus but this one right here less than a month these are people who are out of the money and Who may have sold or are trading around and doing whatever that they're doing which actually isn't my next point liquidations so if you went long on Bitcoin You know and you want to do leverage it's up to you I'm not a leveraged trader, but I can tell you I take a look at these charts every so often to see what happened and This is by by bit or coin glass excuse me calm They'd rebranded and you can see that just yesterday You had almost about 350 million in long liquidations and of course shorts because it bounced around a lot But I will tell you this if it's me and I'm just looking at this chart as a layman There's a lot of a lot of longs heavy heavy longs being liquidated here. Look at this one 800 million. Oh, wow That's just the 8th of May And then over here 668 million people going long and long and long and then whatever else I'm not telling you to go short because I don't do that But you can do whatever you want to but I will tell you this I do get a lot of emails of people who don't know what they're doing and They fall prey to leverage trades and if you know what you're doing It's all up to you, but I will tell you this it sure does create a lot of instability So that's what we have for what's going on in the market. Let's jump into the main story, which is this the buried Fed comments and We're trying to find some good news that it's out there and this is all as good news But you have to understand that the bears are firmly in control of what is going on right now with the crypto Digital world and that is just true. You see sell-offs. You see people I mean shorts didn't get didn't get liquidated It's all longs and they are gonna push that price down. That's just how it's gonna be So when we take a look at this here Actually first I just so you know as far as like why the S&P 500 and what and why Nasdaq went up is because of those macroeconomic Factors, which look like this. So just real quick The reason why you see our Stumble and there's not Alibaba I thought it was interesting climbs more than 13% after the Chinese internet giant posted better than expected results as Business has got a lift from COVID related lockdowns in China. It's amazing We have a bunch of lockdowns in China and people are gonna order a bunch of things online have it delivered to their apartment and houses So there is some good parts of COVID and that's one of them April pending home sales Failed nearly 4% bigger than the 1.5% drop forecast in the six straight month that declines That's actually good in my opinion because it'll makes a housing more affordable for single-family homes Mortgage applications have plunged over the past few months Falling by a total of 26% is a lot with no bottom-in-site as potential buyers recoil from the surge of mortgage rates Not rocket science when you've got that would be home purchase rise by 50% Eight months expect more the same and will feed to close existing home sales. And here's the good news though Ernie's report some other came out pretty good Weak lists are weekly jobless claims came in lower than expected by five case That's a little bit of a bump and then but this wasn't so great the second look at the Q1 GDP fell to 1.5% instead of the Initial estimate which is 1.4 and of course the negative 1.3 So even though they had this some good news some bad news as the P doesn't seem to care is NASNAC It's just the problem here is I think institutions some places Wall Street are treating our space as a personal piggy bank And yeah, that's what we have. So jumping in then To some positivity as we get out of that stuff and this was I have them This newsletter I get the daily upside. There's a link in the description. It's a free newsletter Don't really anything for it, but it just kind of shows you what's going on in the macro space This one really caught my attention So congressional budget office Projections are talking about recession fears are easing those and they states and then of course what I'm going to read to you is some of these Quotes from different headlines the Fed minutes show officials expecting to raise rates three times to address inflation Fed minutes point to more rate hikes that go further than the market anticipates So if you get headlines like these it's a little bit of a fearful factor didn't seem to affect the traditional markets just ours But buried in the Fed minutes released yesterday was a hint that the central bank has some flexibility More than enough in fact to send markets soaring on the day, which we saw In the latest minutes from the Fed's monetary policy setting body with that markets should expect at least two more 50-point rate Hikes, I think we all were aware of that the question though is is that priced in some people say yes I say no, but it is what it is They also show the Fed plans to become data dependent When weighing policy action, and this is super important for what we're going to talk about next As far as what happened with the quantitative tightening which they're going to do right now data dependent is code for flexibility and When we talk about what they're going to do with this tightening aspect if they didn't have this flexibility They learned from what happened before this would be pretty awful and then So we'll give that a second, but in addition of the favorable verbiage from the Fed the Congressional Budget Office released data to suggest the economy nor inflation is quite as bad as some I believe Inflation adjusted GDP is expected to grow 3.1 percent year over year in the fourth quarter and That's down from 5.5 percent, but it's up from 2019's lackluster 2.6 CBO estimates inflation measured using the CPI will cool to 4.7 percent in the fourth quarter So if that is the truth if the Congressional Budget Office says, you know what? I know we're at 8.5 percent even though we really didn't tell you it was 8.5 We think it's gonna cool down to a little bit over over half of that and we're gonna see some better days So if that pans out, I think we're in a pretty good spot But again, it's anybody's guess especially with the macro environment To balance that out CBO delivered to some short-term good news to go along with a long-term frightening news And the bad is this by 2032 the deficit here in America will increase to 6.1 percent of GDP It's a lot But the good news is this year it'll drop to a cool 1 trillion which is down from 2.8 trillion So again, these are all numbers. I think that people look at I think that's a good reason why you've got these types Of bumps in the market. So that part is great, but here is It's bad news and it's good news and it would be bad news if you just read this article But what we just talked about that data dependent that flexibility is going to be super important Just remember those terms right now as we talk about What the Fed's quantitative time means this was a great article by Christopher antsy over at Washington Post and this was from April 7th And it's gonna break down beautifully how this is how this has played out in the past not just in America But in other parts of the world what's potentially could happen the history and of course where we go to from here. So What's quantitative tightening? I like how he says it's the opposite of it's the opposite of quantitative easing so instead of printing a bunch of money they're gonna take all that money back essentially and The Bank of Japan pioneered its use in 2001 after had run out of conventional ammunition Lowering its benchmark short-term interest rate to zero if you know anything about the economy in Japan That pretty much decimated for a very very long time and it's still in a slide correct me in the comment section a Quantitative easing essential bank buys bonds to drive down longer-term rates as well as it creates money for those purchases Increases the supply of bank reserves and the financial system the hope is that these lenders Pass that liquidity along as the credit to companies and households sparing growth. They don't hoard it That's the big thing So how does it happen? So by the Fed letting the bonds its purchase reach maturity and run off its balance sheet because a member it went from I think it was 4.6 to like 9 trillion on their balance sheet They doubled it effectively created the money used to buy the bonds out of thin air And that's is essentially what you do with quandary and you just print it But you can't keep doing that because that leads to super inflation which is from right now Then the Treasury Department pays the Fed at the matured the bond by subtracting the sum from the cash balance It keeps them that does it on the deposit with the Fed effectively making the money disappear amazing If you try to do that nothing any other business that's called fraud But for the central banks, that's just a Tuesday So have central banks made the switch before no The Fed use quantitative easing for the first time Let me say that again the Fed use the quantitative easing for the first time in The 2008 financial meltdown and during the weak recovery that fall then they implemented quantitative easing Once it thought the economy was sufficiently strong the tightening lasted for a little less than two years From 2017 to 2019. This is super important. They've only done it once it was a Not a less than a futility it worked for what it was But there are some caveats. So I'm gonna skip this in the middle part. I linked this description. You can read this This is the meat and potatoes How did the markets react last time for quantitative tightening? So you had Chair Janet Yellen from the Fed now. She's part of the CFTC great Said in June 2017 that this is something the quantity that will just run quietly in the background Over a number of years. It'll be like watching paint dry So remember Every time you hear some expert talk and say just how Something won't work and something doesn't doesn't need to happen or whatever else remember experts can only tell you what was They can't tell you what will be because this was a new prospect and Janet Yellen for as much Background or she has in the financial sector. She was wrong as well So just keep that in mind as we move forward because crypto is one of those places that there's not a lot of people I can tell you what's gonna happen. All right, but the bad So quantity of time tightening started without a hitch in October 2017. That's pretty good Which we're here right now, but just three months later bonds slid across the globe and stocks dropped by November 2018 Some market participants were arguing the Fed had shrunk bank reserves too drastically Leaving lenders scrambling for cash and rolling money markets the dollar strengthened putting pressure on emerging market borrowers that have built up dollar Denominated debt. So what did the Fed do? Well at first it kept the the tightening policy and that's when Jerome Powell came in because he took over for Yellen and And he said it's on autopilot. Don't worry. So again Powell is wrong just like Yellen But here's the kicker and this is him. This is the crux after the S&P 500 index Tumbled almost 16 percent Over three weeks in December 2018. The Fed was like, maybe this isn't the best idea to keep going It abandoned rate hikes in January and went on to announce the phasing out of quantitative tightening in March 2019 Did it calm the markets down? Well rates surge in the repo market It's a source of funding prompting the Fed to inject short-term liquidity And it kept going. So here's the thing remember in 2019 Little bit wonky, but then what did that lead to? Well led to 2020. That was a pretty good year, especially for what was happening Unfortunately, we had COVID and they had to step in and then they did quantitative easing again from 2008 And now we're back to quantitative tightening. The thing is though that data dependent what Because Jerome was around when they did the quantitative tightening in the beginning and he hopefully I would think hopefully would learn from his mistakes They go, you know what? We want to soft landing we probably won't get the soft landing But we can't just say we can't just keep raising the rates and we do not want to see like what happened in December of 2018 Well, we lost 16 percent on Wall Street on the S&P 500 So I think what they're gonna do data dependent They learned the mistakes from before and hopefully they'll say, okay We can play around a little bit because we understand what happened in the past, but There's also this part here any new safety valves This time the Fed has new tools that can use to avert at least some short-term strains of financial markets that introduced Standing repo facility which can provide as much as half a trillion dollars or 500 billion of cash overnight to the banking system of the repo It's just and a separate facility offers dollars to offer central banks around the world So you see how things are kind of connected here They're like, hey, we're gonna give you data dependent on These raid hikes and then we'll probably back down just like we did over here But we have to do the right do it the right way because we don't want to keep having Inflation rise and hopefully if the CBO is correct like they talked about over here Hopefully it does the inflation rate goes down from 8.5 percent to 4.7 or in the fourth quarter We will see and yeah, let me let you think about that in the comment section and then here's some other It's moderate news take it as you will for legislation and This is the article. So I found it interesting Because I have a very unpopular opinion in the crypto space and you know what I believe that we should have some regulation We should have some parts. We should have some clarity and I think that will Really get us into the next level of crypto and digital assets. I don't like the ambiguity. Give me the it's just like tax loss Give me the rules so Like to say like this so I can bend them not break them But I can do what I can want to do legally and then move to that next level if I don't know the rules How can I play the game? This is the big problem. So I think this is what we need Here's what we got so Congress is introduced 50 digital asset bills impacting regulation blockchain and CBDC policy, which I'm a fan of Okay, so there's good parts in here in this bad parts. I'm gonna link in the description because there's just too much to go over So the hundred eighteen Congress have reached a milestone 50 bills and resolutions have been introduced so far and it's all different types draft legislation of stable coins from Senator Pat Toomey and Josh Goetheimer, which I will tell you that if you're from the United States We got two parties Republicans and Democrats and they usually never work together But here's an example of bipartisanship amazing Pat Toomey and Josh Goetheimer. One's a Republican was a Democrat and these are Supposed to cover the entire digital assets regulatory sphere from Cynthia Loomis again a Republic a Republican and a Democrat Kristen Julliper. Yeah, amazing So what we got 50 bills identified are broken into six categories taxation CBDC's crypto clarity which I am all for and Regulatory treatment of digital assets and then there's also the last one issues of sanctions and ransomware implications of all in China rushes use of blockchain because of the sanctions and Access limitations on use of crypto by US elected officials. I like that I mean if you're gonna stop them from trading stocks or think you should then they should also not be able to get into crypto as well That's just me. I mean for the most part want to use crypto to buy coffee. I could care less couldn't care less so Here's the positives and the negatives and of course people in the comments will tell you and they are right that sometimes Regulation goes a little bit step too far. I think that we can have a little bit of a balance, but You know, that's just me worked out pretty well for the internet Law 230 when they wouldn't allow These different companies to be sued or these blogs to be sued by whatever people actually post on their on their website I'd allowed the internet to flourish and move forward. That's what I'm talking about. So This is double-edged sword HR 3684 became public law on November 2021 and it's going to be implemented in terms of crypto tax reporting by January 1st 2023 so coming up in six months or so it provided a definition of digital assets and created a new definition for a broker The IRS would consider someone for purposes of requiring tax as any person who is responsible for regularly providing Regularly providing any service Effectuating transfers of digital assets on behalf of the person. So that's okay But it could potentially include miners stakers and programmers So that's not good because if that happens then these miners they're like, I don't have I'm not gonna report on who buys The Bitcoin after I mine it or if I'm staking it. I don't have the information on like me as a as a stake pool operator I don't have the information on you for Cardano. I don't so if they want that Good luck because I can't get it and of course programmers. It makes no sense.  It doesn't make any sense. Like it like Ethereum or Cardano or whatever else.  Let's be honest But here's the good news while the US Treasury is Promulgating how the industry will need to comply. There have been no less than five bills introduced in an attempt to Modify or reverse the impact of the legislation. So I need to make something pretty clear here. And that is that we're coming up for Elections super Tuesday in November. So right now there's a battle between Republican and Democrats I think we all know that this is one of the few times That you have a lot of leverage you have a lot of leverage To if these people listen to you or not because they're all in a dog fight to either keep their seat or To actually gain a seat in their respective districts So if you make your voice heard, it's very easy whoever is in your district for in the United States Whoever that you know for whatever states or place that you're in Just Google them Find their office and send me an email and say I would like you to be pro Crypto, I'd like you to and then reference this article here about things. We're talking about HR 3684, I don't think it's fair that minor stakers and programmers should be implemented.  That's just how it is. Remember, they're supposed to work for us. So use the lever Did you have anyhow to move on? Here's the good parts Tom emmer It's a good guy following on Twitter Public in Minnesota Andrews had introduced previously the safe harbor for taxpayers with forked assets It excludes from gross income or income tax purposes any amount received as forked Convertible virtual currency. So if something forks and you happen to gain that There's no taxes. That would be great It also would establish a safe harbor period to suspend any penalties To a taxpayer who receives a fork convertible virtual currency until the IRS Issues regulations or guidance. That's what we should do with Gary Gensler until you give concrete guidance Then there should be no fines there should to be no fees and you shouldn't be able to shut down these different centralized exchanges For offering yield give us guidance publicly not behind closed doors, and then we'll talk anyhow Susan Delbeen with Again other Democrat from Washington and Republic of Arizona David Schweiker introduced the bipartisan virtual currency Tax Fairness Act would exempt personal transactions made with virtual currency When the gains of 200 bucks or less makes sense to me I don't see why we should be paying capital gains on something like that Because I mean if you want to if you want to use Bitcoin and buy coffee like this classic example Why you got to pay capital gains that 200 bucks or less wipe it all out and again I will tell you that Republicans and Democrats pretty much hate each other right now if you don't know I mean and Not all the time, but it is nice to see some bipartisanship in the three laws We just talked about or three bills. It was bipartisan. So that's good Something positive to take away from this and that's pretty much it I didn't cover the whole thing because it's super long and I've only got 24 hours in a day So I linked that in the description. You can check it out. There is good and there is bad And that's what we have and to finish this up This one's great so out of all these laws That are here, especially that piece where they said that there was five no less than Five different bills trying to undo the the verbiage of 3684 you know what the reason is is because of just awful education and This is a Sam Baker freed. This is him talking to I believe this is a congressional hearing and he just gets pissed off after so much time because of the stupid questions and people You know talking down to him like he's a kid and he just this guy's my hero That's all say let me I I want you to hear this in crystal clear Format, so let me share The tab And let me make sure the volumes absolutely blow your ears off I'm gonna mute myself But I actually found something a little bit offensive that was said I'm gonna be pretty blunt that most of the traders on our platform know a lot more about these contracts Than many of the people in this room including many of the people in this room were condescendingly talking to them about what they do And don't know and shouldn't shouldn't be offered Anyway, I just had to get off that off my chest a little bit and I think it's to some points about consumer choice here I'm not saying that should be a sort of like be all and end all but I think there is something to be said for it and I think that that there is some irony in You know some of the statements made by people attempting to protect those who know massively more than they do About the topic and who understand these products extremely well on most of our users do But I actually found something a little bit offensive that was said. I'm gonna be pretty What's the traders on our platform know a lot so that's it I got to give out to Sam for for saying it like it is like Why are you talking about me when you only know what you're talking about so just be quiet and listen up There's a good reason why the good Lord gave you two ears in one mouth so you can listen twice as much as you talk And yeah, that's all we have for today. So look a little bit long on the news But it was pretty detailed, but that's all we have. So if you got to take off, that's great time is precious


foreign earned income exclusion and housing inclusion uh from form 2555 enter the amount of your foreign earned income and housing inclusion from form 2555 2555 line 45 now obviously when you get into to foreign people that have foreign income it gets a little bit confusing because depending on where the foreign income is coming from there's going to be agreements of course between the iris and and possibly other countries so that you don't end up with like an unfair kind of double taxing uh type of situation and that is also kind of a specialty area if you are doing uh taxes then do you want to be working on taxes that are going to be more complex in the area possibly of people that have uh income from multiple places multiple states makes it a little bit more complicated as well as multiple countries make things more complicated or do you want to specialize if you're doing taxes on more more uh places for a single location possibly specialized in a certain state or and or a certain country which would make things a little bit easier possibly you know you could find tax authority that might be a little bit cheaper if it doesn't have to deal with like rules for multiple states and multiple uh countries and whatnot and so that's just something to keep in mind or you might specialize like by industry and that kind of stuff so which again the industry codes or the tendencies of businesses within different states even might be different given the rules for different states as well so in any case uh enter the amount of the pre-printed parentheses as a negative number the amount from form 2555 line 45 will be subtracted from the other amounts of income listed on lines 8 a through 8c and lines 8e through 8z complete the foreign-earned income tax worksheet if you enter an amount on form 2555 line 45 foreign-earned income exclusion and housing exclusion uh from form 2555 so you might look at that form and the instructions for that if you want to dive down into more detail with it