With that, ladies and gentlemen, we are moving straight into our next keynote speaker. Here we have with us a brand which launched their new identity on such a great scale during the most difficult times of 2020. The brain behind this most successful launch of the year is amongst us. And it's my privilege to welcome Ms. Kavita Nayar, Chief Digital Transformation and Brand Officer for Vodafone Idea Limited. Our address will focus on creating a brand for the digital age. A very warm welcome to you, Ms. Nayar. Thank you very much, Katya. Thank you very much for having me here and thank you for those kind words. We are delighted with your presence and looking forward to your session now. Oh, thank you.  And thank you very much for listening in to me. I think I will, I do have a little bit of a presentation to share because it just helps to tell the story better sometimes. So we can see the presentation now on the screen as well. Excellent. Yeah, so I think when Khyati and team said that building a brand for the digital age and I think they, this whole brand conclave is about how to really shape brands during this new age. I was thinking about it and actually the key here is that and what I was thinking more about was if I just look back on my journey means I had the privilege to build telecom brands four times over whether it is, you know, Max Touch, Orange, Hutch, and now we, and even though I have done this many times over and I may have some, you know, Guinness Book of Records of, you know, killing brands and then, you know, launching them in New of Thar, which consumers love, there is really in this era, right? It is, it is just not the logo and the brand name that has changed. And I think I was resonating with what Varun was saying before me that the consumers have changed, the marketing landscape has changed and that's really very, very important for us as marketers, as people who look after brands to think about and when we were planning to do this brand integration of these wonderful two brands, you know, Idea and Vodafone are these two admired brands that we had in our arsenal and when we were trying to integrate it, we said that, of course, we should borrow from the legacy, but we must build for the future. We must have a new, you know, dynamic edge to this new brand. And the whole part was that we should really think of how do we really talk to the New Age Indians. And in this case, it means I will call it the digital Indian because I feel that digital has really given consumers, smartphones have given consumers a new purpose. They really believe Indians are a young country. We are a young country. We are very optimistic. We are very ambitious. And I feel that this combination of smartphone technology data has really helped Indians to really unlock many possibilities to help them get ahead in life and also find newer ways and newer business models to, you know, how to work together to make things happen. And we were very, very keen to tap into what I call, you know, the culpability of this rising India. So we was actually built for the New Age Indian for this connected ecosystem and we wanted it to be relevant not only today, but for many, many years to come. And this is for the customer. We also thought that this is a great opportunity because we remember we sell air.  So they are the ones who are really helping deliver the experience of this brand. And so we wanted to really craft something which is also which will help us build a future fit organization for us. And if I then look back as to what we really did and it is only three months old, but we designed the digital first brand. This was before the lockdown when we designed this. And we did not launch just a brand identity, but, you know, brand identity is what people every PC is, but the whole positioning around it. But we created a we didn't go through the normal books of, you know, the marketing landscape, which is which in my previous avatars that I have done this, you would say, how will be this logo? How will it come in black and white? How will it come in print outdoor? And then of course, whatever it is, you will slap it on TV. We said that we have to create this brand for the screens, the large screen and the small screen. And what I really love about this is the flexibility and the various possibilities, not only as a design system, but also it flexes across consumer and enterprise, rural and urban, socioeconomic classes, old age, youngsters, everything. Right. So if all of you have seen it, you don't see it in one way. It is quite unique, means you can see it in different manner. So you're not really not guidelineized, you know, if you know what I mean, because you know, brand books, you don't really need to be guideline. You know, you have the ability to build it for this new screen, the new kind of people who are really consuming our brands. And I think it really reflects the throbbing. We would like to be a brand which is together for tomorrow. And that's, and that is the purpose of the brand. And we would like to really help our customers get ahead in their lives so that we can all together build a better tomorrow. So and when we launched this, and Kathy, I think mentioned that it was done during lockdown. So to that extent, it is a it is a true testimony of teams really working virtually to do a brand launch of the scale and magnitude. And it was about saying that how do we really deal with crisis? Do we look at it as glass half full or glass half empty?  There are a lot of learnings that I have from what we really attempted to do and brand is only means this brand is just born. It will be shaped in the future and brands are journeys and they will be built. But from just this aspect of when we shaped and crafted this brand and what we learned from it, I thought that I will share a few nuggets of what the learnings were because the results are very exciting. So all our stakeholders, whether it is the consumers who used to love for an idea, they said that he is bigger and better. And they, you know, in the first we had awareness of about 80 percent in the first week itself. And more than awareness, we met people who said that they really love it or like a brand to employees to trade partners. It really resonated with them. And if it really resonates, I thought that it's a great opportunity to reflect on certain learnings that I have, which I would love to share with you. So my learnings are building a digital first brand. So the journey is messy and pun intended because it is not a linear journey. You know, it never was. You must have heard about the Google's messy, but if I just reflect back on 10 years, it means I used to do this kind of marketing job about 10 years ago and I came back to do marketing job 10 years later. And I realized that I was the queen of 360 because, you know, it was the path to purchase was fairly linear to that extent. In the morning, you woke up, you read a newspaper, you went to work, you either heard radio or you saw something outside.  And suddenly when I really came back to do your marketing job, the screens, the small screen had changed the way consumers look at, you know, brands and how they consume and the path to purchase is no more linear. And it is not something that you can really even control. And the importance of data and analytics, you know, and the opportunity to really use that to really better navigate it. And I think that is what I think we crafted for. We said that we will challenge the status quo. We will not really use the tried and tested methods. We have to understand that this journey to that extent is messy and how do we really participate in this consumer journey, which will really help us. So that was the first learning. The second learning is so important that, you know, we no longer as you know, brand people, brand built brands, it is not as easy as sending something to the consumer and they love it. It is consumers who build it. So rather than trying to control, we said that we must figure out how we can influence those who build it. And I'm not talking about just the influencer world, right? Because that is a that's another topic and we can talk about that. But it is about the ecosystem and the connected ecosystem and how do we really use that and how do we really influence that? And it started with a small germ of an idea. He was some strategic, you know, pillars. He said we have what a phone idea did this massive integration, whether it is network integration, distribution integration, people integration and brand integration through a lot of partners. We close up in the collaborative spirit. So we said we must use a partners to really, you know, participate in the conversation of really, you know, partnering with me. And what started with that germ of an idea really, you know, if I can say spiraled, spiraled where we had the people organically participating in this conversation and becoming our ambassadors and advocates to really, you know, champion this new brand. So to that extent we as Mark, you have to give up control, right? Because we had to really say that we have people who can really do this. And it worked for us. And I think that there is a nugget there as a principle that, you know, it is consumers who are building it and how can you really influence that? How can you really participate there in an engaging manner? And how can you continue to do that to build brands in this new age world? The third principle, I think, is that we have to engage with them on their terms, you know, on their turf. It can't be that we do these, you know, means that I'm really I'm not saying that these are called them for an event, et cetera. And then expect them to participate and be engaged. I think that part has gone and the attention spans are much smaller. And we said that there is so and for me, there is a beauty of a triage that I call marketing data and technology. I think they are coming together and the power of it is just so immense. These three pillars, I heard Warren talking about it. And I really I love it when, you know, you have industry people who are talking in the same manner because it is great. So I think marketing data and technology, how does that really come together where we can really create personalization at scale? And we also can really leverage, you know, technology to create immersive experiences. And I'll just give you a couple of thoughts on that. Where I talked about our employees. We have about, you know, about 11,000 employees. We engaged with them in a very, very immersive experience when we launched the brand rather than just saying, this is our logo. This is what it is. It was about if we really believe brand is what a brand does, we wanted the leadership team to really talk about how they believed in it and then really get them to immerse in those experiences of the new brand, along with their family, because remember, this was all during lockdown. And that really, really helped. And we said, whatever our consumer sees, you know, beta tested on our employees and, you know, they could be our first set of consumers who will tell us whether this is working or not. So if you look, you see here, which is, you know, you can make your unique tune, you have a number and the tune is unique to you. So which is what I was telling you, the personalization at scale, right? So you can really use your number to really create a tune which is yours and which is also branded and you would still like to make it. So the power of technology or these wonderful trails that I showed you from the identity and I said, it's not the identity, it just leaves in everywhere. They became an expression of our network. And this we said that how to really use that to give immersive experiences, which people are really happy to engage with. They're happy to share because this is this is about them and not just be intruding on their lives really, you know, a lot. We had about two million, you know, or people who did all of this and we got some really wonderful brand advocates, people who did this. We filter because it was something that they would they wanted to participate. It was not us just throwing stuff or pushing stuff in their face, which is why I'm not talking about the roadblock because that is a little bit of a traditional method that we used to really get some awareness going fairly quickly. And getting their attention is tough, you know, make it worth their while. About 10 years ago, you would say an average consumer is exposed to about, you know, 500 brands a day. But today, somebody told me that an average consumer is exposed to about 2,000 brands in a day and remembers only four or five. And it is not when I say remembers, not just remembers from a love perspective. It could even be that I don't like this, you know, remembers only four or five brands that he or she is exposed to. And all of us would like to be a part of that four or five, isn't it? Because, you know, who would want to be in a place where people don't really remember them?  So if you look at it, I'm talking about a national scale launch of a telecom brand. And I'm talking a lot about how we really use digital and how do we really use digital to really build immersive experiences, engaging experiences. So some of you must have seen happy surprises where you said that we must have some positivity and joy during, you know, the first few days of launch. And of course, there could be gratifications. But even if you people are spotting a simple idea on the app and we expected about 400,000 customers who would play. We had about greater than two million unique customers who played it for 14 days, which was quite awesome. And suddenly you say that, oh, it was the simplicity of the idea. It grabbed their attention. They felt like, you know, and it was not just about the spot the logo. It was a new app, which they really like. So it is no more now about different, different functions, silos, which you have to really start integrating, because it is just not about, you know, sending them a communication piece. And then, of course, more than ever, I think if I didn't mention before, when I came back 10 years later into marketing, there are many things that have changed, but there are a few things that haven't. And I feel that creativity and storytelling still matter and they will continue to matter. They will continue to matter no matter how they will always matter. Till, you know, I think it is it is one of the things that has stayed through centuries, and I think it will continue to stay. It is just that how we tell these stories has changed, isn't it? And if you look at it, all of us are naturally building stories with a small screen, and I'm going to just show you two ants and they're different and they're still we. And but it is all built for built for the small screen, done it done in like two, three days. Done with collaborators, partners who really come together to do this. So the way you tell them has changed. But, you know, the essential part of interesting storytelling continues to matter. The prizes that I was talking about and the same brand, but in a different manner where you are getting, you know, we can roll over, but against told in a very interesting way, you can see that, you know, Sonics come together, right? Because, you know, suddenly you realize that Sonics plays a large role in the way consumers process because they are using the small screen. So they're seeing it in that manner. They may hear there is a payment process, etc. So all of these become immersive experiences across so that you can really engage with the brand at a subliminal level. Still know that this is a brand that is talking to you. Not your face. And I think. Sorry. And most of all, I think I started by saying that it is a brand which is built for which is together for tomorrow. And we said that digital is changing the way brands are being built. Of course, but it is also changing people's lives, right? And I said that Indians are really, really optimistic. They want to get ahead in life. And so this and this flexes. So you have seen some of the digital work, some of the work that is there, which is of the identity, which looks absolutely new age, touching edge. And then you have these stories, which are rooted in reality, which is also the same brand. And I'm going to show you these three films, which shows the power of what digital can do to people's lives and how we are really acting to actively participate in that. This is today's generation. The whole heart is on the phone. Tick, tick, tick, tick. What will happen to them? You can create any website, any app, the way it is possible. Look, who is on the phone now? Yes, I think these were some of the principles that I thought I must share with you that we learned as a team on when we were trying to shape a new brand. And if this brand was built for the new age, Indian, as I said, from identity positioning to how it is really coming to life. So these were about the six principles, which I thought I must share with all of you what has gone and. This is just, of course, the beginning. And I said, brand is what the brand does. This new brand is about three months old. So there is a lot more doing that is to be done. Thank you very much for listening to me and hearing me. Thank you. Thank you for sharing your insights with us. We do have a couple of audience questions that come in for you. So we're going to take a few minutes for you to answer them. So first, foremost, the question gaming coming from the audience said, why rename it V? Is there any specific reason behind it or just because of the Vodafone idea collaboration? No, so I think it borrows from the legacy, right? So it is an abbreviation of these two wonderful brands, Vodafone and Idea. So it is, you know, VI, which is V, but it is much more than that. It is and which is why I said it is V. It is not just about me. It is about all of us, all of it is about the collective. It is about the collaboration. It is about what this whole inclusivity of what this brand is all about. So and if you look at stuff, which is the logo, which has, you know, the the eye, which has a dot below, it is an exclamation. This is a surprise when you deal with us. So it is much more than just an abbreviation. But yes, it starts from the fact that V comes from a legacy which borrows from the legacy of two really wonderful brands. Right. It's a new dynamic edge. So here is another question which is saying that the communication so far consists of a film that we've seen a couple of advertisements or audio visuals. What else will you plan to do to communicate this change? Now, we know it's in the nascent space. But what are the plans? Yes, actually, I didn't share with you what happened during launch. And I think the films were just a small part of it. I think the large part was about so the first week of first was about getting the name changed and we as I said that we had awareness of about 80 percent and about, you know, I think the after recall of about 80 percent awareness across even town classes as low as, you know, 50,000 pop strata. And we really combined the power of TV and digital to really build this. And most of which are the substantiators, as I can call, you know, a lot of it is rooted on our network and we really named the network giga net. So I've not really shown all of that. I was assuming that the market certainly must have got bored of seeing these things. What we did. But, you know, the giga network, which really then, you know, makes a big credibility of our network because that work integration is what would have been ideas all about the back, you know, the backbone of it. And how does it really help you get ahead? And then, of course, the IPL sponsorship and all of the digital, you know, immersive experiences that I showed. So it is much beyond a film, actually, you know, for me, which is by marketing data and technology, you know, to come together. And for me, it is about content that you create and which then can go to a big screen or a small screen. But those are the screens that really are top of mind for us. Basically, it's possible. Right. Now, there is a big question which says then this network integration was clearly in the making for two years. Was it always the plan to launch it in September 2020? Or did you speed up the process because it made sense to launch it during the pandemic with the increased reliance on telecom players? OK, that's a good question. So now, you know, you can't really do launches like this, like overnight, suddenly saying, OK, pandemic, you should do it. So strategically, the decision always was that we must launch the new brand after the network integrations and almost near completion, right? Because how will you see the value of a new brand? How will you see a changed experience if you don't really have a network syndicated? Now, the key is that the pandemic started in March. We launched in September and you're right about it. That with the pandemic, the telecom brands, all of us, you know, came back into the consideration set of consumers because we were helping people stay connected with what mattered to them. But that was actually not the reason for launching in. It's actually complicated because, you know, to launch brands at scale. If somebody and I and for people who know me, we'll know that impossible doesn't really, you know, exist in my dictionary. But if somebody told me about nine months ago or ten months ago, that he would have to launch a new brand in this kind of a scale without meeting each other all virtually. I would have said near impossible, but actually made it happen. Because the keys are not met each other. So it did not, we didn't bring it forward or anything. It was the strategic choice that people have to do, you know, post the network integration and just manage and then, you know, we just launched the brand. It just happened that we had to launch it in the middle of a pandemic. But thank you so much, Miss Nair, for spending this time with us, sharing your insights and story of we as a new brand to for all of us. And exchange for media, thanks you for your time. Thank you so much. You're most welcome. Thank you very much. Thank you very much, audience, for listening to me and have a good weekend or rest of the week. Thank you.


Okay, we're back. We're live. This is Think Tech Hawaii. I'm Jay Fiedel on a given Tuesday. And we have John David. And he's a he's a historian, a professor of history at White Pacific University. And the name of the show is history lens. But that's because history is a lens. Okay, you got to think that through. It's a lens because you look at the world through history. It looks different. We want to have that lens because it helps us see things more clearly. It's so important. John, you already knew this, right? Jay, it's great to be on the show. Yeah, of course. That's my wife. I'll be honest with you. My wife actually came up with the name. We were tossing around all these different ideas. And she said, what about lens lens lens? He's like, you're part of the items and you get it. So she's a good woman.  If you won the book award from the Baldridge book company, that really is some things for your Westernization, limits of Westernization book, which you and I have talked about before. Oh, that's the cover of it. Limits of Westernization. It's really a story of East and West. It's really a story of the influence of Westernization on other places in the world. First of all, it's the Kenneth W. Baldridge Prize. And it's not a company. It's actually a professor. I think he was at BYUH, who maybe two decades ago, no, longer than that, three decades ago. Endowed this prize in his name. And ever since then, this is a prize that's given every three years. There's a Baldridge committee that meets. The chair is from BYUH, because they sponsor the prize.  I'm gratified and pleased. I'm also humbled because I know there's a lot of other good books out there. And another book could have been chosen. So I'm quite happy about it. I mean, wow, these things don't happen. Congratulations. Does it come with like the Nobel Prize? Does it come with a big check? It comes with a little check. Okay. I think it's like $500 or something. We still appreciate you a lot, Sean. It's great fun. And I've been getting, honestly, I'm shocked that congratulations I've been getting on social media. It's really been a lot of fun. I mean, I've gotten over 5,000 views on my LinkedIn account of this picture of me and the book and, you know, the announcement. So, wow, I didn't know that that would happen. And part of it is I've really developed. I've really developed my LinkedIn following. So, yeah, I guess so. So you want to talk, you want to talk about why it got the award? I mean, I'm sure you, if you don't know specifically, then you can guess. Why did you get this award? Why is this book important to the Kenneth W. Baldritch organization? Right, to the committee and to the historical discipline. And really, the thing is, this is the only history prize that's given in the Pacific for a book, you know, published by, you know, the way they term it is a book published by a resident of Hawaii. And it's over a three-year period. So every three years, they give the book. And so this was 2017 to 2019. So, and so it's very, to me, it's very interesting what they said in their congratulations letter and in their press release. And I'd actually like to read a little bit of it if I could. Please, please. This is gonna, it might be a little shocking or it might throw you a little bit, Jay, but that's good, right? So this, yeah, so this was written by the, I think mostly by the chair of the committee, a woman named Eve Kohler, who is a professor at of BYUH, bring them young University of Hawaii. So, and so, so she says, John David and breaks new historiographical and political ground in intellectual history with this timely book. And I think the thing is she understood the book right away, which really surprised me because this book has a complexity to it, which, by the way, when we first talked about the book, we really didn't address that ultimate complexity as well as we could. I mean, it's let's do it today. Yeah. Yeah. So, so what she says is set against a contemporary context of trying to understand Asia's gleaming modernization in the 21st century. And that's exactly right. That's why I wrote the book. I was traveling to China and traveling to Japan and I could not understand how Americans could consider what China in Japan did in reviving their economies after World War II and building their infrastructures. I could not understand how this could not be their own achievement. But back in the United States, then politicians, policy makers, military leaders consistently have argued that the United States created modernity in the States. You accept that? No. No, I mean, and that's really one of the main thrusts of the book, is to argue that they're wrong. So, you know, the occupation of Japan, yes, that reshaped Japan in some very significant ways. It also left Japan the same in some very significant ways. So for this committee to understand that this is the context, this question of how could we actually claim this as something that we shaped when in fact, these Asians shaped this. Well, if that goes to American exceptionalism, which you and I have talked about, we were the best things since sliced bread, and it may not have been true, and it probably isn't true now. Right, right. So she actually mentioned, she uses the term exceptionalism to talk about this. So the author, the author talks about the redefining of the history of the origins of modernity. And I'm doing that, that's probably the most complicated part is to look at this question of how modernity and how people think about modernity and how it's structured intellectually, how this was answered by Asians. To me, that was the crucial question that I answered in the book. And she says, diversifying its meeting, recognizing its limits and extract, this is very interesting, extracting from it ideals that could be applied to current global circumstances, rather than giving up completely on modernity. So part of the concept that came out of the book, you know, there's all this talk about postmodernity, right, and modernity has failed us. And, you know, all of this, these attacks on science and rationality in the last few years, I think these actually are a product of our dismissal of the achievements of modernity. Okay, and I mean that in the most concrete sense, the rise of scientific understandings, the rise of rational, the kind of the codification of rational reasoning in universities and in, you know, publications like my book, the kind of the coming together or the emergence of worldwide democracy, you know, so the argument of the book is, and this committee really got it, and again, I'm kind of surprised, but the argument of the book is that actually what we've done is we've expected too much from the modern world. We expected modernity to liberate everyone to be the same everywhere, right? If modernity comes from the United States, then it should look the same in East Asia. So I hear the words of Woodrow Wilson banging around in my head, making the world safe for democracy. And it was repeated later on, too, in the Vietnam War. We're going to show those guys a thing or two because we got a better system and we're going to impose it on them like it or not. Right, so in that, you know, and it's a good idea, right? It was a very good idea, but the problem is that Americans believe that they can apply it the same way in every part of the world. And it's what's true for Japan and China was also true for Vietnam. It didn't work in Vietnam like it did in the United States. So to me, it's fascinating that they've actually understood the book, and I'm really delighted, maybe even more, or at least as delighted with that as I am with the prize itself. So somebody actually got it. Are you finished reading your excerpt there? Do you want to read more? So let me just finish with this because what she did is she quoted the last paragraph of the book, and I'm just going to read this because I think this is another way of saying what I was just saying, but it's really making it more accessible. Modernity fell short of its promise in the 20th century, but this work makes a call for a new understanding of modernity as more diverse and less monolithic. Its universal idea of progress can be replaced by a concept of improvability or what William James described as meteorism and with 11 of humility in the words of anthropologist Margaret Mead, humans are still capable of liberation and rational problem solving. And if we embrace this fact, we can salvage modernity. Okay, so that's my, okay, that's my hope is that actually modernity is not dead. Because I think those who have argued that modernity should die or is dying and let's embrace postmodernity do, they have not fully acquainted themselves with the consequences of abandoning scientific analysis, rational thinking, a kind of a hope for the future of liberation and liberty as a concept that we ought to fight for.  Let's not celebrate that, folks. Let's understand that if we sacrifice our modern ideals, we're going to lose a lot. Now, modernity itself was not perfect. That's the other part of the argument is, it's diverse. It happens in different ways in different parts of the world. And so we shouldn't expect that it's going to solve all the problems or that it is going to look the same everywhere. And that's, that's the insights of the book is to find that it actually, modernity actually looked quite different from in the, in East Asia from the United States. And it wasn't, as Americans argued, it wasn't that East Asia did not possess modernity. It's just modernity looked different in East Asia. Yeah, it looks different to different people, but it's also dynamic, isn't it? It changes. You know, I mentioned before the show that we are now in a time of transformation. And what is, you know, what is at the cutting edge now in the year? It's way different than what was at the cutting edge a year ago. And I wonder how your book engages, if it can engage, with that high speed transformational process we have right now. Yeah, so, I mean, of course, there's a lot of change taking place. And I think the idea of the overall framework of the book engaged this very directly by arguing, hey, let's, let's pay attention to the science. Okay. So public health, when public health gives guidelines, we should listen. Okay. Yeah, let's, let's, let's let the scientists be scientists and stop tearing down science. Okay. So that's, that's an important part of this. And the other part of this is that modernity was not the be all or the end all, but modernity also brought forth really to the forefront of writing the policymaking and political decision making, a kind of rational thought that had been that really, I don't think we had ever seen before in quite the same way. And now in the last, you know, four years, we've lost some of that. So let's, let's return to a rational mode of decision making in our politics as well. Oh yeah. Politics is a strong thread throughout this conversation and throughout the book. So it's the limits of westernization. I find that interesting in the context of this discussion of the impact of what, what is modernity and what is the impact? Because right now, right now, and if you say that modernity is science and rational thought. Yeah. But I mean, as a core value, a set of values. And then you say westernization is being limited in some westernization is the center of the book. Then I, I, what the image that comes up to me is that, wait a minute, we, we are not following science and rational thought in our public policy right now today. We're not following it. We're disregarding it and we're coming up with media evil interpretations of things that are not true in science.  They are using science, they are using rational thought and it works for them. So is, is it westernization or is it, is it modernity in some sort of global sense you're talking about? Right. So, so let's take westernization off the books because the term westernization and its use, used by western commentators is the problem that it created all these problems of analysis. And what happened is western commentators fused westernization with modernity and that's where the problems arose. And so in the book, I untied that I pulled those two things apart and so I could see modernity in East Asia as it was being created by intellectuals in East Asia. And sometimes those intellectuals referenced westernization and other times they did not. So other times they referenced their own traditions. Now this is a really interesting question, this question of the relative, what I would term in the COVID crisis, the relative coherence of East Asian peoples, their cooperation, their willingness to make sacrifices for the state and for their own well-being and for their neighbor's well-being, a sense of community, a political community. And so East Asians in the period coming up to, you know, in the 19th century, early 20th century were accused of being fatalistic and led by authoritarian governments, ancient decrepit governments and they were blindly loyal, they didn't think about politics that, you know, the man in the street didn't, or the woman in the street didn't think about politics. And so all of these stereotypes about East Asia are, they're really powerful and they actually remain pretty powerful right through the World War II period. But when I studied East Asians themselves and got beyond the stereotypes, what I found is that East Asian intellectuals very early on were very interested in the concept of civic duty. Ah, a political community, political and social coherence, a willingness to make sacrifices for the political community, whether it's the state or, you know, local. But no question, wasn't that exactly what the founders were after? Wasn't that what Jefferson was about? Well, we all have to make ourselves useful to the community. The problem is it's more complicated in the American case because you have this idea, this enlightenment idea of individual liberty and that tends to, and that enlightenment idea is really grabbed onto strongly by Jefferson and then by those who follow Jefferson. And actually, I mean, liberty is an important concept, but if you just limit it to the individual, if you don't talk about communities of liberty, and if you just oppose it against everything else, right, you have liberty and nothing else but liberty, then political communities suffer. You have chaos, don't you? Yes, you can have chaos, you can have secessionism. This comes quite directly out of Jefferson's idea of liberty. You can have, in today's world, you have people who are arguing that, you know, it's, I have the freedom to discriminate against you because it says so in the First Amendment. So you have all these distortions of, you have all these personal liberty laws that are aimed at, aimed against gun control. So it's interesting that you should bring it up because this plays on a project that I'm currently writing, but in other words, that sense of the community and sense of respect for one another in a community has, in some ways, it's at a minimum, it's been de-emphasized in American modernity and then it's been more strongly emphasized in East Asian modernity. And so, yeah, what I get out of that now is that, is that the United States, especially in this administration, but not limited to this administration, will still have the country is often to this individualism without concern for your neighbor, your community. We have declined in that way from the noble ideals of the founders. And the same time, East Asia, we can talk about Korea, but I think it applies to Japan and to maybe a lesser degree it applies to China, maybe Southeast Asia too, to a limited degree. They are actually, they have integrated some of the influence from our United States democracy, our aspirational democracy, and they are doing in their own way better at this combination of science and rationality and incorporating duty to community. It's very interesting that they actually have taken our thoughts and built a better mousetrap with them. Right. Well, this is the other interesting thing. It's actually not, at least not completely our thoughts that they took. This is where the limit comes in. And China is a little bit of an outline. Of course, China is not a democracy. They do have opposition political parties, but China is a really authoritarian government. So what happens in the early 20th century is that the major intellectuals become very interested in concepts of civic duty or the person's sense of loyalty to the state, obligation to the state. The problem for East Asians is that in previous times, especially in Japan, but this is really true for Southeast Asia, that loyalty ran through families and it ran through local political elites. But it did not run through the abstract of the modern nations. So you think of in Japan, the samurai class and how you had to look up to the samurai and be loyal to the samurai and the samurai's retainers were loyal unto death to the samurai. So there's a very strong sense of loyalty, but it's not pointed at the state. It's not pointed at the nation. So part of what these intellectuals want to do is they want to kind of reconfigure that loyalty focus, especially in Japan. And they do this by looking at an old intellectual, an old neo-confucianist named Wang Yongming. And Wang Yongming argues that actually the duty to the state is even more important than your loyalty to your family. It runs right against the grain of traditional Confucianism, Wang Yongming thought. But his argument suggested it fit better with the modern nation state for East Asians than traditional Confucianism. And here's another thing that's surprising is traditional, what we call Chushi Confucianism, was really all about the individual. I mean, if you have a social structure of the family is there, but but Chushi Confucianism actually emphasizes self-cultivation, the reading of poetry, the wearing of fine clothes, the way that you meet others, the social status is very important. And so, and quite frankly, one of the problems with Chushi Confucianism is that this idea of individual self-cultivation and a kind of almost a lack of accountability to larger political entities, you know, the local government, the provincial government and the emperor, you know, at this center. So Wang Yongming says, no, this is wrong. And what he sees in Chushi Confucianism is a lot of corruption as well. I mean, these elites that are running the country, they're collecting more taxes than they need to because they have all these very expensive habits. They become addicted to opium. They're stealing money from the national treasury. So I'm not putting all of that on Chushi Confucianism, but honestly, that China has a problem. And I think the emphasis of Chushi Confucianism on the individual is part of the problem. So it's interesting to me that these intellectuals in the late 19th in early 20th century, when they go to the United States and they go to Europe, what they find is groups of people interested in working together and a kind of political coherence that they lack because the East Asia is too individualistic. How's that for strange? Well, that's switched around, isn't it? That's right. You know, right now, I don't like to use China as an example because of the human rights issues and the despotic government right now. But the fact is that although they're very scientific, that doesn't rule. What rules is loyalty to the state because that's life or death for you. And that's troublesome. It's troublesome because loyalty, misplaced loyalty to the state here, is loyalty to Donald Trump, who is sort of wrecking our democracy and wrecking our brand for democracy. And that Trump's science. So what we have in, you know, we only have a couple of minutes left, John, what we have, you know, is in the ideal, it was like the enlightenment, the real, the earlier enlightenment. We have a value of science, a value on rational thought, but also, also a willingness to help the society. Now it seems like those things are in not in a good play. And my question is, if I read your book, you know, what what do I get looking into the future? Is this is a lock and hobs kind of dichotomy? Is humankind perfectible? Or are we always going to wind up in this kind of tension which which which which undermines our society? Hey, that's a scary comparison lock and hobs. Come on. No, I don't I think it's I think it's more complex than that, honestly. And this is why the book is so important because it could be that neither lock or hobs are completely relevant right now. It could be actually that Wang Yongming and his his idea of civic duty is more important. And I think the interesting thing for me in writing the book is that what I found is that Westerners and Americans actually have something they could learn from East Asians because East Asians adopted this idea of civic virtue and civic duty pretty well in the 20th century. You can see it in their response to COVID. And we can learn something from that. We don't have to be blindly loyal or we don't have to become a, you know, a dictatorship like China in order for this to work. It doesn't mean that, you know, the loyalty is is kind of absolute. And it comes without strings or without thinking, right? The other part of modernity is is independent thinking, thinking for yourself and rationally being able to evaluate politicians and political circumstances. So I mean, you know, of course, I'm more oriented towards lock than I am towards towards ha, but I'm also oriented towards Wang Yongming. So it's it's much more complicated when you begin to study East Asian history and politics. On that point, I just want to tell you about a conversation I had yesterday with Tai Tai Un Baik, who is a professor at the UH Law School. It was from South Korea. And we were talking about how well they've done dealing with COVID. And he said, you know, the people are proud that they have served the community. The government is proud that, you know, that the community has been served with science and with with loyalty. And I said to him that he's Korean, but he, you know, he lives here. He's as much American as Korean.  I am very proud. Okay, so so what what you have is this coming together of the nation states are coming together of the society where everyone understands all of these values, the values you talk about in the book, and the combination of cultures that have influenced those values. And they're proud. That's what it is. I mean, the thing is, we have in our own past, really a pretty recent past, political communities coming together, doing their civic duty, fighting for the right thing, enhancing civil rights in their communities. And it wasn't just individuals. This is the distortion that bothers me in some of the current political, you know, discourse. It's like, no, it's actually our, our recent past, the civil rights movement actually was a moment where communities fought for more rights. It wasn't just individuals. So we have, we have the ability to call on that past as well. A past in which civic duty is, is, is paramount. So call me an impression, impressionable reader. Okay. And although this is a scholarly treatise, and you know, it's just the facts, man, just the facts. But, you know, I always, I always believe there's a takeaway in everything, including in the show. And the takeaway from your book, I'd like to know, so I read your book, what would you like my takeaway to be? How would you like your book to influence my behavior, my conduct in the world as it is? Well, what, what, what, what would I get out of it? And how would I change my way of looking at things? Well, I think we've been, we've already been talking about it. I mean, the interview with the scholar from UH Law School, that's part of it, is understanding that modernity is diverse and that we should call upon its diversity and learning. But we can learn things from East Asia. And, and modernity is, it's, so it's not monolithic. And also, there are great limits to how we influence the influence the kind of the power we had over East Asia. And, and, you know, we just have to acknowledge that that's an important correction of the historical record, if nothing else, but there's much else to be said for it. Yeah. John, you are a global historian, and the Lord knows it's a hard job to appreciate history as it is moving on, as it has moved on and is moving on, especially now. And with a book like this, I think that helps us understand how, how the process, the global process. Thank you, John, David, and thank you for coming down. Congratulations again on the Kenneth W. Baldritch Book Award that you got. Thank you, Jay. That's the Loha. Take care. Take care. Loha, stay safe. Wash your hands.


This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread right here on the fan duel Podcast network and number fire comm my name is Jim Saunas I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire comm joined here as always by Dr. Ed Fang of the power rank comm you can find Ed on Twitter at the power rank Ed Preseason football is back. We're recording this on Thursday. I get to watch all of the best quarterbacks like Cody Kessler and Clayton Thorson They're all gonna be in action potentially tonight. So it is Geno Smith Like this is my time of year. We're all the bad quarterbacks that I like for absolutely no reason play I am great because of this, but how are you? I'm great Well, I mean you get to see your Northwest and boy Clayton Thorson and I'm not gonna see her in the regular season So I got to watch now Ed. What about what about Simeon? He might get some time. Yeah, I would not I don't think I don't think Donald's gonna play a whole lot tonight. So I can see touchdown Trevor His official name in all fan duel podcast network Podcasts is touchdown Trevor or Tutty Trev? Nothing else will be recognized. Okay, sounds good. And the man has won a starting NFL job I mean probably not gonna happen this year Absolutely, but he was the man. That is that is something to be happy about Anything you are excited to watch in preseason not from like a betting perspective. It's like from an NFL fan perspective Is there something that interests you during the preseason? Yeah, I mean, I got all kinds of questions, right? Like can anyone play defense on the Indianapolis Colts? What what is going on with Kansas City's defense? You know, I mean a lot of issues on the defense side of the ball for with a lot of teams and Yeah, so those types of things, right? Like I mean you look at some of these Super Bowl contenders and obviously you're not gonna get the startups are too much But you know, how much could rookies kind of come in and help them? So those are the type of things that I look for you watch it for real stuff I watch for DFS and for the terrible players who I like for some reason And I don't get to watch them during the regular season. So I'm gonna watch them now You know Smith time is now and I am very excited and was talking about the Super Bowl teams We broke down some Super Bowl teams earlier this week with whale capper You can find that on the covering the spread podcast feed on spotify apple podcast Soundcloud wherever you get your podcasts find that there make sure you subscribe Rate and review the podcast as well because ratings reviews help us out a ton especially as we gear up for NFL season college football and NFL shows coming weekly once we get to the start of those respective seasons So your ratings and reviews now are oh so greatly appreciated coming up later today We're talking to Gil Alexander and you can find Gil on Twitter at beating the book He is a host on vson and he hosts a numbers game Which is a show that airs on vson from 10 to noon eastern every weekday He's also the host of the beating the book podcast and we're to talk with Gil about some NFL teams with low expectations this year But also maybe the expectations are not low enough at any teams for you Where you are superbly pessimistic entering this year Well, I mean, so that's kind of not my approach gym Like I'm trying to find teams that everyone's low on that I think could be a little bit better again You want to find the regression to the mean the question of the mean I'm But you know, we'll see what Gil says about these teams and gills just been such an institution in terms of Talking about sports and sports betting for so long. He's been doing as NFL mega pod for for years One of the first people in the podcasting game So just really excited to talk to him and get his insights and we'll talk to Gill in just one second before that If you want to get in on the action check out the fan dual sports book and place your first bet today If you lose fan dual will get you a refund of up to $500 in site credit visit sports book fan dual com for more details Terms and conditions apply must be 21 plus and physically present in New Jersey or Pennsylvania Gambling problem call 1-800 Gambler today coming up next Gil Alexander follow him on Twitter at beating the book talking NFL futures on some teams with some bleak outlooks for 2019 Covering the present Let's bring in Gil Alexander of the s. I and he is the host of a numbers game on vs I and from 10 to noon eastern time each day gill You're a busy guy all year round, but I'm sure especially busy this time of year So I want to thank you for coming on and how is your summer going so far? Summer's going great Do the radio show every day at Veeson and I've been betting Volumes on multiple sports every day. So it's a good life. Just got back from a vacation I have nothing to complain about is basically what I'm saying. Thank you both for having me on the show Absolutely, we want to thank you for coming on and there are there are worse activities to have to do During the summer and the main subject we want to talk to you about for today Gil was going through some interesting teams for NFL for this year teams that have gotten a lot of buzz but maybe not Positive buzz a lot of negative buzz. We're gonna talk about in a second But first I want to get a more broad view from you when it comes to betting on football This time of year because there are a lot of different markets You can enter and you can look at Super Bowl markets You can look at win totals. You can look at player props Is there a preferred market for you in August that you like to bet on? You know it with football. It's an interesting question because I've I've said to people for several football seasons that If I never placed one against the spread bet in football for the entire season It's not like I wouldn't be doing other things that would occupy all my time and I'm talking about Fantasy I was involved in something sort of off the grid that was more of like a stock market football thing where you buy and sell teams Obviously, there's big handicapping contest here in Las Vegas like the new one at Circa They used to be the super contest for so many years And so you're involved in all these different things and so when I think about Markets like futures and season win totals. It's almost primitive to me, you know, not to not to sound so evolved about it But futures don't really interest me generally speaking much at all. Although I will say that I did place NFC East bets on the Eagles and Cowboys when they were both on when they were both in plus money Because I figure with the Giants and Redskins, there's no way I'm losing that Those have moved since but at that time it was like that With season wins. I will say that the the only season win total bets I made were three unders I tend to as I get older become more curmudgeonly and bet against human achievement And so I am under on a few teams and I vote I've even alternate totaled their unders as well Circa here in town to give them another shout I'm sure there's other places that do it, but I know in town here in Las Vegas They're the ones that give alternate season win totals So you can even get some stuff at an even more aggressive price and plus money. So That's what I've done so far You know, there's a lot of interesting teams heading into the 2019 NFL season One of them is the Oakland Raiders. They'll be on hard knocks this year a lot of roster changes from a team That did not win many games last year the wind totals at six and a half at the fan dual sports book What do you think about this team? That's one of the teams I went under on and in fact, I went alternate season when total under on them I want to say what's their total let now Six I might have done a five and I get them mixed up with the Giants and the Redskins So I'm sure we'll talk about which are my other two, but with the Raiders You mentioned they're on hard knocks. They aired the first episode of hard knocks And I don't want to read too much into a show like that I didn't think the season premiere was that entertaining by the way I think the Browns set such an amazing standard of entertainment last year that anything else will pale in comparison But you do try to glean some nuggets from hard knocks and I don't know if this was confirmation bias on my part because as a Guy who grew up on Joe Gibbs Redskins teams in DC Joe Gibbs left the game of football for 11 years before he came back and what I like to refer to as four seasons of Joe Gibbs 2.0 and Joe Gibbs who had won three Super Bowls The game had really passed him by when he came back the Redskins got to the playoffs two out of four years But they did so almost with smoke and mirrors They did with late season runs both times, but Gibbs didn't really get replay Greg Williams Was the defensive coordinator at the time had to sort of explain it to him while the game was going on and their stories about Gibbs in like 2003 showing his team Schemes from Mark Rippon's 1991 Redskins So it was this big gap that he had to sort of make up for it And here you have John Gruden with the Raiders getting to the point of the Raiders John Gruden who was not in my opinion Half the coach that Joe Gibbs was and I'm being kind by saying half He won a Super Bowl, but he did it essentially with other other People's players in Tampa. Um, I am not a huge Gruden fan I don't buy the act so much for me and I just really wonder You know pro football is a coaching medium and organizations are dysfunctional from the top and you know I'm still the Galio Mac trade is the is the original sin and everything from there has flowed I don't buy this team. I'm not sure if Antonio Brown is about You know, this is just me sort of now There's no there's no basis in this in numbers Antonio Brown might be the best wide receiver in the NFL But I'm not so sure he's a guy who's ever been in a situation like this And I'm not sure how he's gonna handle it with with losing like this. I'm not bullish on the Raiders. I went under on them Interesting. Let me just jump in here real quick because so here. Let me play devil's advocate I mean, I definitely get all the franchise Issues and in the drama But you know Derek Carr actually had a you know a career high in terms of completion percentage last year Their offensive line was a wreck So what did they do they got the ball out quick, which is what I think they want to do to scheme You know, some of their efficiency numbers looked a Lot better than their total either the record or how many points they're scored and They obviously brought in a lot of talent on both sides of the ball Antonio Brown They try to show up the the offensive line a little bit with the trend Brown signing Got a lot of players on defense and have three first-round picks. So I Think most people would think that this is a more talented roster than last year Does that do anything to to suede your opinion on this team? Here would be my point counter points to that Let's just do you know, and I don't want to get in, you know I know that if you go through wins losses in a schedule, that's always a an exercise filled with pitfalls However, if we do that with the Raiders Even if you a lot them a win at home game against Denver opening game Let's say they get a win there and they start with the W here are your next slate of games for the Oakland Raiders this year It's the old schedule does not do them any favors home, Kansas City at Minnesota at Indianapolis Home Chicago and there's your buy so that's a Really tough way to start before your buy week and one in four is Very not I mean is really not out of the question you come back from the buy And it's at Green Bay and at Houston right out of the shoot is there too So I guess what I'm saying is if they had a more a more kind Schedule that would allow them to ramp up slowly Maybe I would view it differently to your point-ed because I do think that it's valid with the talent But man, I can see this team just getting out to a dreadful start and that's one of these cultures that you know, I think Under John Gruden, which looks a little lax again If you sort of view what we're seeing on hard knocks One in six can become far worse very quickly and by the way that one in six still doesn't involve a second chiefs game Two games against the Chargers a game against the Rams that are to follow So this could spiral miserably and that's why I go under on them quite confidently And there's there's still some issues up front, you know, they did know, you know I'd mentioned the Trent Brown sign in but Colton Miller a very athletic guy Didn't look that great last year. He's still there left tackle gave Jackson went down in practice today And it didn't look good based on the initial reports obviously very preliminary there But tough stuff there for sure for the Raiders. So I think that I get this and you know It does matter the way a team starts I think that we talked to the whalecapper about when you want to enter a market if you want to bet the under on the Raiders You got to do it now. You got to do it now Because that's what that's when it's hard for them, right? There's a perhaps there's a group of games in the middle of the season Listen to the markets thing that I referred to initially on the show That was all I used to do in terms of schedule analysis was getting in and out of teams based on the flow of schedule and You know as much as it's talked about in the mainstream media It's not talked about enough in the way that they assess strength of schedules very lazy, right? It's about wind percentage from last year, but once the season starts they never talk about it again It's a very right sort of strange thing. So yeah, I agree with what whalecapper had to say about that This would be the time to immediately jump in on fading a team like the Raiders So let's move now to the Giants and they've caught a lot of flak Justifiably for their handling of the quarterback position given how important it is and given the struggles Eli Manning has had and Vandalsports book has their win total at six the over is plus 125 there Do you see any value in either direction on the Giants at six wins? Um, yeah, I mean again, I I lean under and that's not going to be a you know a shocking pick for people but First of all, we start I guess we started quarterback where if i'm not mistaken elie Manning is playing his five billion season in the national football He has two super bowl rings gill Yeah, two super bowl rings all a favor two super bowl rings Argument that where uh, he's got to be judged by history with those two things Yeah with two of the most iconic passes ever to tyree and manningham. I get it, but Man, I don't know if he can throw the ball downfield anymore I have no confidence in whatsoever and the real issue with the Giants, of course is Why I'd receive her. I don't know what I don't know what happened to this franchise two years ago They had a miserable season last year last you know, here's the thing about the Giants There is a prism through which you can look at them last year and say to yourself They were a very unlucky team as well to have had as miserable a record as they did because they were on the Wrong end of most one-score games Um, I believe don't hold me to this part, but I believe there was some turnover poor luck as well I'm not as confident about that one, but certainly the one-score games thing is true But there was a point last year where you thought to yourself. Okay. Well, they got all these free agents on defense They still had odell beckham jr. Sayclon barkley could be a generational talent in the backfield Maybe the Giants actually outfoxed everybody and actually by by not drafting a quarterback and now here we are fast forward and Good lord if they didn't have gold tate. I mean everybody else is shelved You won't you won't even know any of the names of the wide receivers and If you're the only weapon on offense that I get people are drafting sayclon barkley first in fantasy And I'm not going to tell them not to but at some point if you're the only one that anybody's concerned with offense Can you really be that effective? I don't know and all of those free agents not all of them But most of those free agents on defense are gone And you got guys like landon collins who they just let go to washington his team that he loved when he was a kid that he Wanted to play for he's got a you know a vendetta against the Giants Vernon on down the list I just don't think there's while you say while you make the claim for the raiders and I think correctly so that their Talent is better. I don't see how you look at the the Giants team and think their talent is nearly as good as it was all right Yeah, absolutely.   What's winnable and what's not But when you look early on You know the every game that you look at you're like, well, I don't know if the Giants There's no locks in other words There's no game like with the patriots or with the chiefs or with the league Obviously where you can say well, that's a win. That's a win with the Giants. You just don't know You don't know if they're going to even be competitive. My whole thing with them This pre-season is we're gonna see a lot of we're recording this podcast right before the first pre-season games What if Daniel Jones is good? like Could you There's controversy as well on top of all of this. Like I think I'm almost rooting for that outcome to see the mayhem in new york Yeah, that's a big if I do. I would like to say that Dave Gettleman can't quite lose his job yet because he is the one man that unifies the football analytics on twitter like no other Person in his hatred and disdain for analytics. So, you know, if we could keep him around in other two seasons Let him have another draft To do something funny. I think that would be very interesting Gil let's move on to the washington redskins and get your unbiased opinion on this team Amiguitia quarterback with dwayne haskins case keenham and and colt mccoy What's your read on this team a win total at six with the over at minus 120 at the fandom sportsbook Well last year it was the written total was seven and I famously said on my show all year Despite the fact that they got out to a good start. I was like they are so seven that seven never changed before the season I'm like, trust me that team is at seven and nine as it gets and they actually landed on seven this year I'm saying they're so six and I really do think that season win total is right on You know, they have the three quarterbacks You mentioned alex smith is not going to be able to play this year colt mccoy coming off injury and post injury infections and multiple surgeries Case keenham over from the broncos dwayne haskins the The latest of daniel sniders desperate attempts to have a best friend as a young quarterback on the redskins And my thing is with the skins is like they have the best Maybe the best backup quarterback situation in the nfl Which means that you really have nothing at the same time Although I will say this whenever you say colt mccoy's name people sort of snicker Like a sort of a reflex and I have to tell you colt mccoy has never done anything wrong in a redskin uniform But actually be a competent quarterback. That is sort of the one thing that people Under rate about him is that he has actually had big wins with the redskins It's just that he can't stay on the field, right? Whether it's dead arm at texas in the biggest game of his career Whether it's getting smacked on the thursday night when he was with the browns and then the horrible leg injury with the redskins So I think you know, look, I think eventually dwayne haskins starts Case keenham is probably in at some point But I do have a hunch that colt mccoy starts the season the issue with the redskins No news flash here is that You you side adrian peterson again You rightfully have a lot of hope in derrius geist samajie p right actually is the guy who's been getting the most juiced during training camp He's very excited, you know, they're very excited about him But you know, we live speaking about analytics ed Whether it's warren sharp whether it's erin shots You name the football analytics guy whether it's ed fang This is a passing league and the redskins have personnel that favors just the opposite It's sort of what the vikings experience when they had adrian peterson late in his career there Or more aptly when perhaps he went to the cardinals in the states. It's like well Now we sort of have to incorporate him more than we might otherwise want to although I don't think the redskins are in on that right. I don't think they get that They actually are run first and so I think their problems offensively start with the fact that You talk about the giants having no wide receivers. I mean name three redskins wide receivers average football fan I don't think you can They're also they're undraftable in fantasy like there's There was a bookmaker in las vegas who was making player props and he said they were the one team I couldn't come up with any props for So that says a lot So and here's the big thing and the big sort of under the radar because people don't like to talk about offensive linemen a lot but to me The under on the redskins Is really driven home if they end up trading trend williams Trent williams is a borderline if not If not in the hall of fame left tackle And he is like so many with the redskins. He's become very upset with the way the medical staff has treated him He had something on his head That's something on his scalp that was misdiagnosed by the redskins Medical staff. It's not the first time there's been a misdiagnosis. He's really upset about it People think maybe it's a contract negotiation ploy that he never wants to play for them again I might have to take him for it for him at his word. By the way, if he ends up in new england, forget about it But I think I think if the redskins lose him and you're a run-based team on offense God help the washii redskins. Now. Here's the thing their defense is actually pretty competent As they try to mimic an all alabama defense, right? They draft as many alabama acquire as many former alabama players as possible sort of in a jokey kind of way But I think they'll keep enough teams to around 17 20 points that every once in a while they'll be able to win a football game But would I make a bet on them right now at season one total of six? I would not But if Trent Williams goes and that line doesn't change. I absolutely would go under on the redskins Well gill to back you up there They've had Gains in the past or Trent Williams hasn't played and but the thing was they had tyne seckey who was competent He was a very good swing, you know swing tackle who could pop in there and keep them afloat but he's in buffalo now and If Trent Williams is not there Is it eric flowers that left tackle at this point? And if that happens I think that the under hits fast But the thing that the reason that I think that I might be more inclined to actually make a move on them now is that I do kind of buy what Trent Williams is saying given their history with alex smith with derrius guy I think he had an infection too. I understand why he would not want to go back there So I think if I were assessing odds that Trent Williams plays for washington this year It's not going to be very high and that to me says that, you know, if they were to Actually get rid of that and make that official. I think that that line would move I don't know if it'd move officially, but the juice on it would move and I think that that's why I Yeah, I think that's why I would personally be okay Moving on it now rather than waiting I do not disagree with your thinking if you if you are of the belief that Trent Williams is gone Absolutely act on it now. I don't think I'm there quite yet. Maybe that's just the uh The little boy from dc who grew up loving the redskins hoping against hope that that doesn't happen But I think the uh the adult in me Is is almost where you are with it and I think that you know and you just mentioned it alex smith colt mccoy derrius guys Trent Williams um a rash of misdiagnoses and post-surgery Infections that have resulted in multiple surgeries now the redskins would counter by saying well, it's all different doctors It's just coincidental And I get that there might be a case for that but boy after a while you start to shake your head. You're like, what's going on here? so Yeah, he could be very legitimately mad and he could be we could we might just have to take him out of his word Then he never wants to play there again Now we're talking here with gill alexander You can follow him on twitter at beating the book gill on your vison show. It's not just football You got uh plenty of baseball talk. I saw you had paul spore on there Someone who's podcast I listened to religiously over at fangrass and you know looking at baseball for this year It kind of feels like it's the Dodgers and the astros and everybody else So when you're looking at baseball right now here on august 8th Do you see any value in world series futures for any other teams and If not, if you don't want to bet on any other team, are you starting astros or dodgers right now? How quickly could I say no to is there any value on any other team? I mean I will I will tell you the positions. I have in baseball by the way paul spore perhaps my buddy for many years Is just the best in the business as you um I have a position on there was there's a prop bet at caesars Uh astros dodgers yankees versus the field It opened I didn't I didn't get the best number, but I got minus 155 on those three teams It's now north of minus 200. So I love that bet. Uh by the way, they limited me to a nickel, which was not pleasant But the then there's as soon as cranky went to the astros I bet the astros future plus 350. There is a third prop bet which is at west gate Which is astros versus dodgers specifically in the world series, which I believe was plus 300 a couple days ago But I haven't checked since so anyway all of that different ways to say to you Yeah, I mean it's listen before last year was the first time I said right before the season started last year I said this baseball is about to become The halves in the have knots and the chasm between them is going to widen Into, you know, whatever gulf you can think of it is Just going to be an unbelievable display. And so what last year I believe we had three 100 win teams And my whole thing is what houston and the cubs did by tearing it down and building it up All these other teams who think they're going to mimic that it doesn't work that way Like the Baltimore Orioles fans are being sold a promise that's never going to come through And so you really do have bad to someone asked me on twitter yesterday. You think it's uh Baseball tank of balooza because I used to just go crazy betting NBA tank of balooza Not this last season but the year before and like I don't think it's tank of balooza.  I mean some like the marlin show up every night The Orioles at least until last night show up every night So to answer your question in a long-winded way. No, I think it's houston I think houston is by far Not by far. I think the dodgers aren't by far the favorite in the national league I think houston is absolutely so in the american league. However luisa marino delin batanzas They're coming back for the Yankees and the Yankees lineup, which is mashing right now Is not even close to the Yankees lineup that we're going to see in the post season You can't even name some of these guys in the back half of their order if you're a casual fan So the Yankees are not are some are still to be, you know, we still haven't heard the last of the Yankees I would not rule them out the thing about the uh, the baseball players I like to say this on my show and I give credit to uh stats by lopez I don't know if you guys are familiar with with him on twer 80 of nba Favorites get through nba post season series favorites manifest at an 80 rate And that has a lot to do with first round series, you know gaming that number and the nba has always been a a league of real goliaths In hockey if you were to want to get Seven excuse me 80 of favorites through in hockey You would essentially have to play a best of 51 series in hockey. That's a random That's how absolutely random the sport of hockey is especially in the post season with the with the bounces of the puck And the way that those games go and home ice is just not nearly as advantageous In baseball to get 80 of favorites through you would have to play a best of 75 To have that go through so when we answer the question. Yes, houston is obviously the favorite Yes, the yankees would be the only other team in the america league I would think of and yes the dodgers are clearly the best team in the nl We still have to be cognizant of what I just said with those numbers And those numbers suggest as billy bean famously said My I don't know if I'll have to curse on your podcast, but my shiz doesn't work in the post season What he what he meant was that over 162 game sample size His analytics will manifest by and large. He's confident But once you get in the best of seven let alone a best of five in baseball to start things off Let's not even talk about a one-off wildcard game Anything can happen and that's that is the one thing about the baseball post season Yeah, but I mean to combat that what do you do you get four of the best pitchers in baseball right now and put them on one team Yeah, and uh, I mean that has to be why the astros are You know going to be the favorite. I I think a small favorite over over the dodgers I also just add the numbers wise when I look at stuff You know, I have astros and dodgers consistently a run and a half better than an average major league baseball team when I when I when I do my team numbers and That's a big number compared to what we've seen in the past and and obviously these franchises, you know The Dodgers have a lot of money. Houston has become Um at the vanguard of baseball analytics, you know, well beyond what money ball taught us 15 16 years ago however long ago it was but you know, those are I have to expect a little bit of regression from those teams and I think it just supports what you say about Anything can happen in these in these series. Well, right And that's what I'm saying like, you know, the same logic Allows for that a team like Washington With scherzer and strawsburg and even Patrick Corbin at the top of their rotation To then have the proverbial puncher's chance, right same sort of thing Oh, you're reducing this to a best of five. Are you watch us, you know Or even teams literally you have teams in baseball where the pitching is getting hoarded And you know, don't laugh but like a team who's not even in it But who's like Four games out of a playoff spot like the Cincinnati Reds Who if it weren't for the pirates would be the last place team in their division They are now suddenly stacked at their top of the rotation You wonder if even a team like that, right got into a wild card game or a best of five Even they then based on format have this weird puncher's chance because of what you were just describing Yeah, Trevor Bauer, sunny gray, louise castillo three guys with 30 strikeout, right? You could do a whole lot worse than that Now before we let you go here, uh, you mentioned that you were betting tennis before he came on air And we're going to talk about the u.s. Open in a couple of weeks But uh for you, what's what's like a key you found at betting tennis and why has it become a sport?  Well, most of the time most of the season it's in europe So it doesn't work out for the timing of my show, which is seven nine Pacific ten to noon eastern but now that we're stateside or we're in canada specifically right now Um up in toronto I could actually give them out and so for instance, like i'm fading Naomi Osaka this afternoon But I love tennis because for me it man if it it actually plays out Uh much more reliably than I find happens in other sports So baseball which five years ago I would have said if somebody asked me what's your favorite sport to bet pretty flop now we're talking It's before the age of rampant in game betting. I would have said baseball Now baseball might be the last thing I would ever bet. Um, I have stretches where I enjoy baseball betting But then there are there are just days where I'm just like, you know Nick Pogdanovich who works here as a bookmaker says, you know, if you bet baseball you need a whisk You need whiskey and a revolver because the the fact that starting here's here's what I mean by all that analytically The fact that starting pitchers are now taken out of games By and large earlier than they used to be the fact that some teams for god's sake start with an opener not even a starting pitcher My ability at least as for me other people may feel differently My ability to harness what's going to happen in a baseball game because of that change And really because the dilution of pitchers how bad they've become, you know Five years ago if I went through the starting pitch on fan graphs, you know I might have one horrific pitcher every four or five days like oh, well, there's hector nwesi Here's the bad pitcher in baseball with the horrible numbers now You go you go every day and it's like half the schedule or horrible starting pitchers And then the middle relief is even worse and I'm never I've never been a fan of closers I've always thought they were overrated as a group. So for me baseball is less tennis though is still this uh this ecosystem where based on surface based on Uh break points is really what I love about tennis. So in other words, I will do a lot of breakpoint analysis I'll do a lot of return of service analysis serve percentage nothing too complicated But an ability to sort of Get who has been fortunate who has not been fortunate sort of like babbitt tells us in baseball batting average on balls and play Uh in other stats It allows you to really get to the core of who's been playing well who hasn't despite what the results may suggest And so just for me it makes a lot of sense now five years from now if we're doing this podcast I might have a different answer for you. Right, right. Yeah, absolutely That is gill alexander You can find him on vison from 10 to noon eastern each day host of a numbers game You can also uh find his podcast called beating the book gill I want to thank you once again for joining us talking everything from football to baseball to tennis really do appreciate it Have fun as we get set for preseason games tonight finally and we'll hopefully talk to you again soon Thank you, jim. Thank you ed fake football is here Covering the future One final thank you to gill alexander vison is stopping by again follow him on twitter at beating the book Uh, I'm really fun. Shout it. I I loved hearing gill's insights there and You know, I think that I'm someone who I tend to be probably a bit naive a lot of times and a bit optimistic about too many things But I think it's good to get that reality check sometimes with teams like Maybe this total is low for a reason. So I think that was a good check for me personally Yeah, no, absolutely gill gill is one of the best in the business about talking sports betting and it was it was great to talk to Let's move into covering the future now We're both ed and I look at what our numbers say and try to Find some value that we like on the board right now And ed we've been talking a lot of college football because we're less than a month from the season Which is really fun to say and I am ecstatic to say uh, but a team that you know a lot about is Out in Ann Arbor where you live in michigan And I think that there's a lot of value in having that additional knowledge of being around the team and I try to keep my heart out of things a lot of time But I also acknowledge that like there's a lot of value in having extra extra knowledge So you want to talk here about michigan? What do you have to say about them? And they're out looking into 2019. Yeah, so I spent a lot of time on michigan and Ohio State already when we talked last week about college football And you know at that point I was talking about my preseason regression model and this is uh What you can find on the public part of my site and Ohio State's ranked ahead of michigan 1.2 points And I noted before that that still makes michigan the favorite at home at the big house on november 30th So since we last talked jim, uh, I put another thing into my model. So what I do is I take market wind totals And then I back out what the rating for each team should be for all 130 teams And the calculation is real pain in the rear end because you got to figure out what those odds are for these fcs games as well, but Uh, it turns out to be a very powerful and and in some sense somewhat orthogonal to like the The database model. So this is more like a wisdom of crowds model We're we're we're taking what the markets say about wind totals and backing out how good teams should be Now When you put these things together you get the college football preseason rankings that are available to members of my site um, michigan's actually slightly ahead in this market model and that makes uh, Ohio state only better in these final rankings by three tenths of a point over michigan Now before we had kind of talked about, you know, maybe the odds of oh house Ohio state was favored a little bit too much in the conference probabilities And now I actually have some numbers to back that up. I take these rankings that I've told you about I simulate the season and so I can tell you, you know, what the probability that michigan's going to go to the big 10 championship game um, I actually have michigan at a 45 chance To go to the big 10 title game and that's bigger than ohio states at 39.4 So you might be wondering well ed, you know, what's going on ohio states ranked higher Uh, it was this really has to do with the schedule So obviously michigan gets the game at home at the big house and college football is unfair in that way In that, you know, we only you only play your rival once and it has to be either home or away Michigan also gets a slightly easier easier cross division schedule Really nice to get Illinois In that one of those games So michigan 45 chance to win. I think there's a little bit of value in the futures market. Uh, they're plus 170 in the fan duel sports book Right now to make the big 10 title game. So My numbers suggest a little bit of value in that as well as The plus 250 to win the big 10 and I think It's important to understand why the odds might be the way they are And I think one of the reasons ohio state has the better odds is just because of what happened last year So it was supposed to finally be michigan's year ohio state hadn't looked great Uh, michigan was a four point favorite going down to columbus And then the wheels came off and they lost 62 to 39 And I think a lot of people are still thinking about that game in terms of setting these odds and and where that market Uh, where the market is But I think the more general trend is you know, michigan had a pretty good year outside of that ohio state game And ohio state really struggled at times and when you look at the whole season, that's really what's kind of putting these teams very close And um, that's what uh is is driving my numbers to say this Now jim, I was a little reluctant to talk about michigan today because I knew people were gonna say yo ed man You're you're such a homer last time you get on the show and you you talk about stanford and talking about michigan But I want to remind people in the stanford case It wasn't that I was a stanford homer. I actually thought the fan dual Odds were right on stanford in terms of win totals in terms of conference odds I just thought it was really peculiar that their uh odds to win their division were a little bit low So i'm gonna say not a homer thing there. Um, so from michigan It's it is a numbers kind of play and I do trust my numbers and I do think there's a little bit of value And and I would say that I I do not always plug the teams that I cheer for I almost got kicked off a radio in an arbor last year when I said I would take uh Matt mcquade and michigan's day player over uh charles matthew on michigan player. Wow, so Um, but anyways, I just wanted to follow up with what I said last week in terms of michigan Ohio state odds and the big 10 east and the numbers do suggest a little bit of value on michigan Not a ton of value, but a little bit of value on michigan Uh and oh house state and and just to follow up in terms of like, you know I think we get to a point where michigan beats oh wisconsin in their third or fourth game I don't think you're gonna get these types of prices again, right? So if if you Believe what i'm saying and kind of trust my numbers, uh, I think now would be a good time to jump on that Well, I think the two, you know, sometimes we get down on known quantities because they're not as exciting But shea paterson is a known quantity and you know, it's not the most exciting known quantity But like you know, you're gonna get at least a steady quarterback probably not like it's an elite quarterback But it's steady and well, I you know, I would I don't think we've seen a ceiling yet I think that's a fair assessment And I think that like there I think that there's value in having a floor is what i'm saying Whereas with the Ohio state, there's a quarterback change. There's a head coaching change There's a lot of stuff that we don't know and having them be at such short odds I think It gets my attention is the way I would say that Yeah, absolutely and and I would I would agree with that and um, yeah, just again putting some numbers behind what we talked about last week All right, so that's ed's cover in the future talk about michigan going to the big 10 championship gain getting out to indy Which is a really fun experience if you've never been I'd recommend heading out there do a great job down in indy My cover in the future is talking about, uh, nfl props for this year We talked with jj zack arisen earlier this year about some props he liked for the 2019 season He mentioned darryl kenry as being a player. He liked to lead the league in rushing yards I think he was 30 to one at the time and he's now 17 So uh, kudos to jj for that But I want to talk here about dalvin cook as a guy who could lead the league in rushing because he is currently 20 to 1 So longer odds and darryl kenry And cook at least has a lot of the elements that you need To lead the league in rushing. He is on a team with a solid defense and an efficient quarterback Which means that they should have leads late in games That's not going to be the best predictor of rushing yards, but it's not going to hurt The team seems like they want to run the football. They brought in gary kubiak They drafted gary bradbury. They drafted drew samia who's kind of this grind this grinder They try to make improvements up front And I think that they're going to want to run the football But based on the things they have said about play action I don't think they'll be running enough to handcuff the offense. You can run too much From like a leading the league in rushing perspective because if you're not up late in games You can't run and I don't want my teams to be horribly inefficient And I don't think the vikings will do that this team also Wasn't as bad as perception last year is far from a blocking perspective They actually had a 40 percent russian success rate when riley reef pat elf line and brian o'neill I'll start at last year their left tackle their center now left guard and their right tackle And the russian success rate was 32 percent among running backs when one of them was out So major improvements for the team When having those three guys and now they add gary bradbury into the fold as well along with gary kubiak Dalvin cook has averaged 4.7 yards per carry across his two seasons Despite mediocre or worse offensive line play now you're giving him a very good offensive minded You know coach in kubiak to coach up that offensive line This team's philosophy should lead to a lot of volume and it's a good offense Good defense. I think that 20 to 1 Is pretty good value to get dalvin cook at so i'm not saying that the vikings are going to be This seattle seahawks s offense. I think that they Despite what they've said. I have more faith in them that they're not complete dolts I guess is the way that I would say it I I think that they understand some things and they just want to be able to run the football efficiently But I think that even that is valuable for dalvin cook So I think at 20 to 1 He makes sense now ed you mentioned that you like the vikings before you liked uh that win the super bowl From betting perspective because they were 30 to 1 which I think was tremendous odds What do you think about dalvin cook as someone who could do some damage and potentially leave league in russia?  I'm I mean the one thing that I've been seeing recently The vikings oc was talking about how you don't necessarily need to run the ball to set up play action And so this is kind of this is one of these uh football analytics tenants Ben baldlin of the athletic has done a ton of work just showing that you don't need to run the ball well Or even a lot to set up play action so And the vikings oc seems to understand that and he's talked about this recently So I don't think that means they you know, they don't run the ball at all like I mean we we kind of you know Just common sense like you have to run the ball some probably not as much as definitely not as much as the seahawks do but You know, no one quite knows what the optimal run rate is But I don't know if that affects kind of your your take on any of this just because So in a weird way, it actually makes me feel better about it Because like I said, I want them to be an efficient offense because efficient offenses can get leads and they can you know Control the clock more and they can lean on their ground game more later on you pass to win and frank reich did this last year You pass to lead you rush to win I think that's that's the saying and frank reich did that last year at the colts where When it was a neutral game script they passed a ton But once they got up by I think it was one score They became I think the third heaviest the third one heaviest team in the league Something like that, you know, it's on war and sharpsite. You can find that there And I would hope that the vikings would take a similar approach So in a weird way having kevin stafanski and kurt cousins both talk up play action and how you don't need to run to You know to do good play action it actually makes me feel better about betting delvin cook. I don't know if that's backwards Or no, I think you're saying that like forming a narrative I mean, they're gonna throw a lot on first down the first half That's a hope or hope seven ten points, you know into the second quarter And then you're gonna be running the ball more which is right, you know I mean you probably want more of those opportunities in the third quarter Where you know the defense isn't completely committed to the run game because it's not an end of the games type situation where you're gonna average like what two and a half yards or a rush or something Exactly a lot of opportunities in the third quarter When you know when you can break something And someone who has dalvin cook in plenty of best ball leagues I'm hoping that this winds up being the case that is all we have for today But back once again next week with a pair of shows on monday and thursday should be a whole lot of fun Ed before we get there though, what's going on over at the power rank over this weekend? Hey, thanks for asking jim. I had bill connelly of ESPN on the football analytics show Bill is always a great person to talk to in terms of projecting college football You know, he's written these previews over the years of all fbs teams Runs the numbers himself Pretty much the only person that writes that much and runs that good in numbers So, um, yeah football analytics show you can check it out wherever you get your podcasts Love bill connelly, so i'm gonna check that out awesome I am glad that you let me know about that because I will put it in my spotify queue later on speaking of spotify You can subscribe or rate and review the podcast on spotify apple podcasts soundcloud stitcher wherever you get your podcasts Again ratings and reviews help us out a ton. So please leave those and subscribe So you can get our podcast next monday big. Thank you to our producer calvin thea bull for Putting us on air and chopping up some sweet videos for the fan dual twitter account as well Want to thank ed for joining me? You can follow ed on twitter at the power rank. I am at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s you can also follow fan dual the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast Thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck with all your bets Enjoy the pre season football for tonight and we'll talk to you again next week This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network You


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