Everyone it's your girl Kenzie here from Leighton Sports Cards I'm ripping 10 box Tuesdays 10 box flawless prism treasures football mixer number 113 Here's a list of the random results you can always find these at leighton sports cards calm underneath the results tab and link It's also in chat for you Best of luck everybody Course Brandon. Good luck. Hey, we're gonna start with the All the right boxes. Yes Again all cards do ship from this Chalk that went up in the W column Gracie McMuff we've got purple To 50 Patrick Peterson vikings Ricky wave silver Jalen. Whoa. Oh way. We have Titans Autograph AJ Brown Titans silver behind the numbers JJ Watts Cardinals Evans for shot Bateman. We've got thunder and lightning of try to see team junior and Trevor Lawrence and Andre Cisco we've got rookie for the Titans Elijah Molden to 100 and Rookie wave silver and eco Collins Thunder and lightning right that I say the right thing. Yeah Don't Niko Collins Rookie. We've got Tony Gonzalez silver and Colt arms of Baker Mayfield It's thunder and lightning Late without the end no lightning late Greg Newsome we've got behind the numbers of Mack Jones silver Patriots Let me see Thunder and lighting Mag Jones rookie base, that's funny. Amari Rogers to 25 rookie Green Bay thunder and lighting of Nick Chavin OBJ didn't even notice that good text there. We've got some Vikings reception Perfection to 50 Adam Celand silver rookie wave Kellen lawns Brown behind the numbers to fondix Yeah, Brandon cooks to 100 and Silver called arms Justin Herbert chargers Yeah, it's a redskins throwback here Joe Thysman Cool in there Washington rookie wave silver foul pits last pack of the playoff Take on does Newsome and silver behind the numbers Aaron Rogers All right, let's go playbook Playbook here next Synvicta watching Synvicta watching 400 points there. Do you have a nice rookie Otto here to 35 sealers? No, sure Harris It's not as you hear rookie Otto Got chiefs hot routes to 2.99 Amiko Harman jr. And we've got rookie booklet to 99 Javante Williams bright orange patches there baroncos To 99 15 of 99 there And Lambjack first hit up we've got rp to 49 Cardinals rondeau more Very nice rondeau more to 49 Shailen Rieger and a j brown That the comms for what Nick Carson Wentz. We've got Patrick Mahomes to 10. Wow.  We've got vikings Rookie Otto to 49 chess or rats James Oh Quinn Williams and rookie Zach Wilson. We're gonna do prism team all Come on. Let's see a dragon scale. I don't think in the past three weeks that we've had one of these that we've pulled a dragon scale out Good luck everybody We got your main Edmonds Jimmy Garoppolo silver rookie of jeans proche proche Ravens we've got a cj moseley on the uh team all exclusive yellow and red for the Jets Derek brown rookie and isaac Simmons rookie. I think he's a bit rough. I know it's gonna make me sound like such a like noob Chronicles h2 here Until a few weeks ago whenever we opened team all I had no idea that those yellow and red exclusively No idea the first time I've ever seen I was like dumbfounded, but yeah All right chronicles h2. Let's see if we can get an auto. Love this stuff Watson henry. We've got a justin jefferson rookie vikings Got a derrington evans on the uh raider rookie clearly titans zack moss rookie out of uh Let's just crown royale, I believe. Yep Nice to 75 joey b on the crown royale rookie There you go bangles anthony b Anthony b on the joey b Very nice. We'll mag that Cole commit rookie and a joshua kelly rookie So i'm saying like I love chronicles you can pull very nice cards out of this stuff.  So another one that comes out soon ceh rookie Cam acres rookie got chase clay pool and a julian blackman rookie Ben's giving me like Throwback memories all the chronicles that I left of this stuff last year michael thomas mike evans derrick car Henry runs the third out of um Let's listen again dynagon Got cd lamb rookie michael perine A key jay hamler rookie and a chase clay pool the luminance Did you move danison victor the the herbert and the borough fridge water gang dime ceh on the prison black base chiefs we've got t higgins on the uh acetate raider rookie bangles uh patrick queen rookie chase clay pool to 199 out of luminance rookie Antonio gibson and alaviska schindlel jr And my voice is going out Back to back girls. Yeah, Zeke Henry rugs marquise brown We've got uh jakeb eason on the acetates jordan love rookie at a crown around jalen hurts rookie on a crown around chase clay pool and a darno mooney All right, last five here. I tried to scam you True breeze cd lamb troi palamalu. We have a cd lamb acetate out of a playoff football Legerius sneed rookie another joe borough this time of base A chase young rookie and a justin jefferson at illuminance nice box of chronicles there Gosh, I can't wait for this year's chronicles to come out. Yeah Relatively, yeah, I believe so I'm gonna go contenders Oh, what sets are gonna include it's gonna be interesting Yeah, a lot.  I think the green was out of 75 and then I pulled an orange.  Oh, yeah rookie justin fields But the same ever impactful first offline a while and uh disco rookie auto peter werner for the saints Nice one there What's the core moa? They've got rookie disco of trevor lorence Yeah, i make every day man every day and every night To do out well we've got disco rookie of brevin jordan for the texans Frank darby we've got pink darnell mooney For the bears that is out of 15 Okay reporter right out of the Thing there we've got rashaun evans disco titans I'll meet so i cannot wait Yeah for sure jc horn disco brilliance of derrick henry The top scone basketball Licensed top scone basketball triple threads football You got disco tear mclauren That literally tops like top basketball That's gonna be the first time in almost 20 years when it comes out because there's a weight Niko collins we've got hype of jerry judy. They did a tops finest basketball That released a few months ago. Yeah, but it was i heard it was trash I bought three boxes and sent a whole box back because every single card had a print line on it Or it was damaged Mark andrew's disco ravens Imagine how huge that would be We've got nazi harris rookie red disco of jimmy collins for the lions. That's out of 50 Like you're gonna be a flabron or jordan went over to panini or tops Elijah mitchell. We've got rookie trait sermon disco niners Still looking for a variation. Yeah, i got three boxes and i'm regretting it Sent one box back and waiting tops We've got rookie trait lance. So we've got two 79 rishon slater for the chargers And i still have the other two boxes. I'm just gonna throw them up on ebay Honestly Christian barmore. We've got a kyle trance. Here's the variation. There you go bucks Disco variation rookie there Wayne s grinch.  I'm sorry. I could not get them to let me cooperate. Got mac jones rookie Pete Werner purple to 225 kenyon drake raiders and break of two attack by lila Yeah, i think so too. He's gonna be one of the ones everybody chases this year for sure davis mills rookie shy smith orange to 249 brevin jordan texan silver rookie auto peat Werner for the saints Sticking on another auto there Carter rookie jets Ernest jones orange to 249 charles woodson raiders fireworks down the cook Highland hill Jamar chase rookie bangles We've got red wave to 149 derwin james jr. And silver joe montana Jevon holland dining brown hyper to 175 anthony firksger titans Walter patent silver michael vick flip backwards Brace mcmaeth this with patrick purple ice to 225 patrick queen ravens brilliant russell wilson seahawks Slater Pat farmouth rookie. We've got navy camo of alvin kameron at 25 saints doing well And silver sensational signatures. Sean alexander for the seahawks Strived with the bible for a song 27 Oh, I believe that is that is out of 149 Noah gray. We've got javante williams rookie broncos purple to 125 david montgomery and emergent rookie trevor lorence jacks 30 round tree davante smith rookie eagles Got green scope rookie to 75 chuba hover panthers And silver lockdown jamal adams Elijah moldin kelan farley. We've got purple ice rookie of aziz ajalari giants silver ian thomas panthers Jalen dartin chaserats We've got green scope to 75 russell gage falcons and hype jalen hurts Got elijah more rookie jake funk Blue wave to 199 drew bledzo patriots and silver rookie avasate samuel jr for the chargers All right, we're gonna go nt nt timer Think so move really Thick here No, can't say i am michael all right first up. We've got to 25 mac jones treasured moments mac jones We've got treasured moments to 99 erin rogers Packers to 99 heirlooms john riggins for washington To 99 we've got to 25 heirlooms john riggins washington dual rookie patch to 49 josh palmer Hopefully paul there We've got trio materials to 99 trevor lorence zack wilson and tray lance We've got um jacks is bobby w 49ers is eric r and jets is john g so this will be a random to all three of those We've got jumbo booklet to 99 2 2 atwell for the rams Little st. louis rams Booklet there Here you go ramps five of 99 And we've got to 49 a frank gifford auto Giants frank gifford Notable nicknames captain come back To 49 rogers stallbot for the cowboys Captain come back And we've got crossover rpa green to 33 givante williams go broncos anthony b Nice hit there anthony b All right, we've got flawless Lawless time Good luck everybody Here we go, uh 2014 mook. We just actually pulled a 2014, um Troy polamalu All right good nothing's sticking on this box. That's such a weird uh Last case five of five on the green austin eckler chargers Five of five there Got quad ricky showcase 13 of 20 going back to the broncos givante williams Nice one there Got rpa on the signature gloves to 25 seahawks dewayne escridge 18 of 25 on that one. That's a thick glove relic there I have a man of the year to 25 of kalias Campbell Kalias kalias. Oh, yeah, 25 on the honor card. I gotta buy one of those They've got to 25 rookie auto uh for the car rolls rondell more three of 25 Got to 15 patch auto distinguish for the packers a jordy nelson That's sick. There you go packers And we've got what we have here eight out of 10 honored ink of the original tb12 terry bradshaw Here you go harper with the Steelers Eight out of 10 very nice bradshaw Empty uh ruby here two of 20 little jt here for the colts Jonathan taylor comes with the diamond guarantee Here you go colts I think he's gonna have another cute here Hopefully now we've got green two out of five for the jags trevor laurence Nice two colored patch there jags That is bobby w with the jags Two of five and last but certainly not least The biggest hit out of this uh Break four out of 15 rookie auto on car patriots Have a good night busy mac jones Beautiful hit there harper congrats All right, I have two cards. I need to random We have 400 points here as well as a triple of trevor laurence zack wilson and trey lance Give me one minute to set up the randoms here again, um Whatever team lands on top we'll get those cards. We've got two and two that is four times on the random four times we're doing first for the uh 400 points whatever team lands on top gets the 400. Good luck everyone one two three four Raiders Raiders taking on the 400 points And four times on the triple patch here again jags jets and niners. Good luck one two three four Going to the niners with the trey lance Niners taking home the uh triple card All right, let's do the recap here We had uh javante williams broncos austin eckler chargers josh pomer chargers john righan skins john righan skins chubahubram panthers the javante williamson 99 um booklet me coharman jr chiefs adam felon vikings uh We had some um Max cards the joey b to 75 The joey b silver rookie out of prism black The trevor lorence 205 Then we've got terry bradshaw stealers, uh jordy nelson packers ron delmore cardinals collyce cambell ravens dewayne s grade seahawks uh frank gifford giants roger stallback cowboys The tutu outwell rookie jumbo booklet ramps Sean alexander seahawks peat warner sinks peat warner sinks alex leatherwood raiders urnist jones rams jonathan cooper broncos jacob harris rams cootie pay colt's chester at vikings ron delmore rpa cardinals nausea harris stealers joe thysman washington h.a brown titans and some more Max cards we ended juvante williams to 33 on the crossover rpa broncos and the mac jones four out of 15 All right, everyone that'll do for group breaks tonight sam will be starting uh personal tier in just a few minutes


So, our next speaker is Robert Nichols, good friend of mine on talking about a favorite topic of mine. Okay, thank you very much. It's a great pleasure and honor to be here presenting. And I want to talk really, I've been thinking about this issue of Delta, this couple of social democracy systems. I want to really take one project we've done. We've done a number of projects that have happened along this kind of issue. Two big ones, one's active. I'm going to look at the Espadeltas project, which is still ongoing in a way as I'll explain, but most of the work has sort of been done and it's done a lot of work about bringing together the natural and the human world in Bangladesh. So it sort of I think sets a nice context for the theme of this meeting.  Then look a little bit at some of the components we need to consider if we're going to talk about posted Bangladesh. Then the issue of integration. So this thing Delta DM will be mentioned a number of times. The Delta Dynamic Integrated Emulator Model, which is a framework for doing integration. I'll show you some results and then a few concluding remarks. And if we just start with Delta's, well, I mean, I think probably most of you would recognize Nile Delta without a title. And you can see the strong kind of contrast between the desert, the un-vegetated desert, and the very vegetated Delta. And it brings home the point that Delta's really concentrate ecosystem services. They're extraordinarily fertile places in the mid and low latitudes. And, you know, seven percent of the world population lives on them. And the key thing, I think, is that they can support more than 500 people per square kilometer. In Bangladesh, it's more than 1,000 people per square kilometer living off the land, tremendous sort of productivity. And this is a picture we've produced back in 2010 when we started this work, trying to illustrate the ecosystem services that are ongoing in the Ganges of our food for Delta. And, you know, they're diverse in terms of provisioning large amounts of food and water, et cetera, that can support the population. And the question, of course, is with Delta's under significant drivers of change, how will these evolve into the future? Then, ESPA, I've mentioned this ESPA-Delta project, I think it's important just to mention ESPA, so it's a kind of context. It was a 40 million, what it is, which is actually a 40 million pound program, looking at ecosystem services to poverty alleviation. So it's coming out to the millennium ecosystem assessment and looking at this relationship between ecosystem services and poverty alleviation or human well-being. And so it was very explicitly transdisciplinary. And our project, ESPA-Delta, formerly assessing health livelihoods and ecosystem services and poverty alleviation and populist Delta, was the largest of these grants supported, went from 2012 to 2016, and we worked in coastal Bangladesh. And we are actually continuing it at the present time with the government of Bangladesh in terms of applying it to look at some sort of public policy aspect. When a call came out, and it was sort of interesting, where in the coastal area is this facility? And it took about two seconds to think Delta and the rest is sort of the rest is history. Our study site, again you probably all know this pretty well, but we've got the Delta sitting here, the hatched area. We've got the catchments sitting above, draining the highest mountains on Earth. You must also remember the Bay of Bengal, because fisheries are very important in the study site. And we're actually not studying the whole Delta. What we're studying is coastal Bangladesh, which is this area here, including the Bangladesh portion of Sundabang, the Cullner and Barracel, an area with a population of 14 million people. Studying this was a very multi-disciplinary problem, and it took a lot of people. So this is just acknowledging the consortium that contributed to this project. There's seven UK partners, 12 Bangladeshi partners, two partners in India, and this is one of our consortium meetings in Bangladesh in 2014. And then we had this strategic partner which we developed for the project, which is the Planning Commission in the Government of Bangladesh, which was again built in, that we would engage with the Government and what developed was this strategic relationship with the Planning Commission over the last few years. What was the idea? We had a sort of vision from the very beginning, it was very integrative, and we wanted to really allow policy makers to sort of use information over this large spatial scale to think about ecosystem services and people's livelihoods. You might say in Spain English, link science to policy at the land-state scale. It's sort of at this very large spatial domain. And how would it make a difference to the poor? The money for ESPA, I should have said, is coming largely from different, essentially like USAID. So it's very much linked to development. So our pathway to impact, which you have to have when you're doing development, was to develop methods that would inform the national government so they could make better decisions across this land-state. So that was our pathway to impact. When you start to think about the different scales that are going on, I've already hinted at some of the different scales that are there with the map, but we've got to think about global scales, things like obviously climate change, Bangladesh is always the host of child for the impact of sea level rise. But we must also consider regional and river delta scales. There's lots of changes, such as dams. Also DACA, I mean DACA was 250,000 people in 1950, it's now 20 million people. It's not in our study area, but it's having a huge effect on the country and on the delta. So it gets quite complicated when you start to think through all the different things that are going on. So in terms of our approach, we wanted to look at both, we wanted to understand the present day situation and then prognosis, be able to think a little bit about the future of these issues that we're concerned about. So first of all we had to think very much about the integration of social, physical and ecological dynamics and think about what mechanisms are actually causing them, so a sort of systems view. And then so in the project we actually did a lot of participatory work that was quite important in terms of engaging throughout the project with the Bangladeshi stakeholders in government. So we held workshops at least once a year, maybe more frequently than that. We're going to say a bit more about that in a moment. Then we had to look at what were the issues of physical and biological processes that really benefit people living in the delta and the rural environments. Actually think about quantifying these relationships and then bring it all together into an integrated framework and model to be able to explore possible futures. We managed to do all those things. In a kind of big oral sense, this picture here captures how we designed the project and we have this aspect of governance analysis and stakeholder engagement at the top. It's long and thin because it ran through the project. And we started with conceptual analysis because in many ways the starting point we weren't really sure about the relationship between physical services and human well-being so we did some qualitative work. This identified that seasons are very important so it changed our methodology. We were going to do one household survey, we did three for the seasons to capture that dynamic. Then that informed the social and economic data collection for the household survey. Also a lot of biophysical modeling, I'll explain that in the next slide, which moved on into an integration phase where we developed scenarios and we also developed an integrated model. I'll explain that more in a moment. That was delta DM and then this idea of policy analysis where we simulated the futures with that model and we went back to the stakeholders and so the stakeholders were helping us develop the scenarios so that they were very much buy-in with developing the scenarios and then taking results and actually discussing these results with the stakeholders and actually what would they do? If they didn't like what they saw, what would they do? That's the best idea of an iterative learning which I'll mention again. So what are the components that we considered? Well, there's sort of under three different areas. We looked at governance analysis and the stakeholder engagement and that's about ongoing process. We looked at social economic data collection and analysis. This included the household survey. We did analysis to the census, to a specific model we built from that. We looked at population projections. We looked at economic trends over the past decade or two. And then we did a lot of biophysical work as well. The climate, and this includes sea level, both temperature and precipitation, CO2 as well, which is the agriculture modeling. That then fed into the upstream basin modeling and each one of these boxes here represents essentially a model or a set of models that were coupled and then a Bay of Bengal analysis. And then this feeds down into analysis at the scale of the delta. I'm looking at things like salinity, morphology, land use, and then into provisioning ecosystem services, agriculture, aquaculture, mangroves and the fisheries. And so this was all done in a sort of loosely coupled way but then to really see through our vision of prognosis we needed to actually think about how we could join and link all these things together. Because it's very ambitious just to do those three elements. But then we wanted to have the fourth element of actually joining it together into a truly integrated framework which is the Delta DM. And I always say is Delta DM, is this a piece of software that sort of describes coastal Bangladesh or was actually a social device to get people with very different views to actually sit down and talk about their understanding and develop a shared understanding. And of course it's both because that's how it was produced. But it spends an awful lot of time and energy in doing that. So if we look at Delta DM in a little more detail it's an interdisciplinary tool. It sort of covers a lot of different domains. It builds on the high fidelity models that have been used in the sort of in the biophysical work, things like Delta 3D, EpiCom. But it's also taking secondary data. It's using the household survey and it's taking the expert knowledge of people within the consortium and the stakeholders. What it actually corresponds to is it's really a metamodel. It's a hybrid. It has some aspects of it are lookup tables. Some aspects are statistical emulators which is why the word emulator appears in the title and in other cases we're actually running the code, for example, the agricultural model. But it gives a fairly quick running time. It harmonizes scales and methods. It's fully coupled and it gives, we have the feedbacks and it's giving us a quick running time. Who's actually participating in this? Again, the people involved is I think it's very important in this kind of process. We've got our stakeholders, 55 agencies. We've got the household surveyed. We've got the specialist team with a wide range of different skills. We've got the integrators. These are a subset of the Delta team but they're the people that are actually thinking about the integration. And the Tilla-Lasares in the room has actually led the integration in the project. And then lastly, we have the users. And they're sort of taking it in terms of applying the model and taking it back to the stakeholders. And thinking about how these sort of link together, when we start building the model, we think about this long iteration route that sort of involves advice from the broad team and the knowledge that we've developed. But once we get a model that we feel represents the processes that are going on for the questions we're asking, we can then think about a much shorter iteration where we don't need to go to the expert teams and we can just run Delta DM. And then we have to keep on asking the question, are we using the model within the domain where it's valid? And we have to remember we might need to go back that long iteration if we start to ask questions that are outside the box that we've actually sort of played with up until that time. It takes a lot of different inputs in Delta DM and I won't be able to read through all these, but you can just see them. But there's a wide range of information, both climate, various biophysical dimensions, the ecosystem services, the demography, et cetera. So taking both natural and social science inputs to be able to run the model. And these are expressed from the outputs of the more complex models or the emulator, et cetera. And so we need scenarios to do that. And then the main outputs, when we actually output the hydrology is obviously fundamental to the sort of ecosystem services in the Delta. Stabilization, salt is fundamental to agricultural productivity, issues around livelihoods. And then an unusual, probably an unusual set of outputs that normally aren't output in the model in the sense that you'd stop there and you'd hand your results over to another domain expert and they would do an interpretation. Well, this is all output within the model. So we have a lot of wellbeing and poverty and health indicators both at the scale of the household and obviously, you know, you can, if you have a household output you can then aggregate up to regional outputs. So things like income, relative welfare, et cetera. Things like genie coefficient, which is the inequality of income within a region. So aspects that were done within the model, I mean, we did things like the sort of, we brought in biophysical emulation of these types of aspects, primate hydrology, mangroves, et cetera. And then certain aspects were developed within the model including like a salt balance, prop watt was extended, and the emulation of the numerical models. The household component was built on the empirics of the household survey and it's an sort of agent-based model where it considers 30 plus household archetypes. There's only a small number of things people can do in Bangladesh with about seven or eight different livelihoods but they can change what they do between seasons. So you get a large, a large range of possibility space. It looks at economic decisions and the poverty health indicators and outputs. Obviously verification and validation are sort of critical and look into the bugs and also checking against other data sets. And here are sort of some examples of validation. This is sort of comparing EpiCom with Delta DM for salinity, that's for surface water salinity for soil salinity and then for sort of crop productions I'm sort of looking through these very fast but just giving you a flavor here. And equally for the sort of social, some of the more social indicators, the black line shows the mean output from Delta DM and the rays shows the spread and then the circles are showing different measures independent from various surveys within Bangladesh. So we're looking at, here we're looking at sort of, make sure I get the total expenditure in the family in A or down here, we're looking at the Gini coefficient. So again, reasonable fits to observations. And note that this is people living on less than $1.5 million per day so the numbers are falling both in the model and observed so people are getting wealthy in the Delta, that's important. Our scenario framework was based on a sort of development scenarios which were developed in a participatory way with stakeholders and then climate scenarios and we had a sort of 3x3 matrix and we had this idea of an iterative learning loop whereby we start off with experts developing knowledge stakeholders developing the sort of scenarios at the Delta scale, then a quantitative translation of the information that was provided by the stakeholders because often they're providing narratives really about where they are and where they might be in the future. This is then fed into Delta DM, reducing output, taking that back in a form that can be understood by the stakeholders and then there's a sort of cycle of co-learning with the stakeholders. And the three scenarios I'm going to show you are that sort of access there from the least sustainable and the highest climate change up to the most sustainable and the least climate change although they're all similar amounts of climate change. And two observations I just put in listening to some of the earlier talks that we often wanted to really engage with our stakeholders but the workshop can only be one day and so you've really got to spend your time very effectively and plan how you can do that and the narratives are a sort of key communication wise that word has been mentioned in other talks but the narratives I think are very important and that's how a lot of this exchange of information and knowledge go take place. Scenario examples, again a wide range of scenarios are sort of fed into the Delta DM model just in the summaries here and I'll just illustrate a few of them here. So again fisheries, this is an output of a model by Phyllis Marine Labs and it's sort of showing that fisheries are likely to fall but the difference in the future, this is out to 2050 is largely a function of how you manage the fishery. If you manage the fishery in a sustainable way you can sustain it although there will be some decline even if you follow good management practices. Demography, well population actually you expect population to be rising population is either slowly falling or maybe falling quite a bit so that this area is losing people without migration going on and economic scenarios, well there's much more growth in the non ecosystem service based aspects that red line is showing that the we expect based on observed trends to see more percentage change in economic output in the non ecosystem service part of the economy. Just to show you a few illustrative results very very quickly, this is flooding in 2050 at the end of the monsoon the polders were shown in some of the earlier talks and so the areas here are flooding are outside the polders, very very similar for all three scenarios and then we can actually even play around with the polder hikes, we can look at the dikes we can raise them or we can lower them raising them makes no difference so it's suggesting they're high enough you're not going to get any benefit at least with these water levels this isn't a particularly extreme year if you reduce them clearly the flooding greatly increases and then obviously maybe that's what you do with tidal river management but in a rather controlled way this is just removing the crop yields this is sort of aggregated crop yields the top line is showing over the whole year the bottom is showing in the dry season and so from the least sustainable to the more sustainable you can see the colors are getting less red and orange we're seeing higher productivity there with provisioning ecosystem services we can aggregate the information and you can see that again the least sustainable to the more sustainable this is showing social economy again it's higher in this side income is higher on this side and then with the hazard based ones a lot more variability maybe to expect from sort of wet to dry years etc storms more variability a less maybe less clear pattern there the livelihoods can also be unpicked and these are just sort of showing six out of the more than 30 archetypes which is showing different components things like remittance is yellow business is orange these are just different types of ways people make their livelihoods and ecosystem services are becoming less important in time and you can actually even look at there's a multi-dimensional poverty index which Attila and Helen Adams have in review at the moment which shows different people are always poor people who are getting richer people that are going in and out of poverty and people that stay poor you can sort of see different typologies of people within the system so just sort of tie it then and how does this make the policy well we have this stakeholder engagement and so this is one of the events we held in the planning commission in Bangladesh and as we were doing the project this Bangladesh Delta Plan came along which is funded by the government of the Netherlands is taking a holistic much more holistic view of the future of Bangladesh than has been done before and our project they made the comment well actually before this nobody's really thought quite so holistically about Bangladesh as you are in the S for Delta project so we sort of naturally found strong engagement and they facilitated a lot of our workshop which really helped with stakeholder engagement and there was even a final event which was looking at the Delta Plan and our work and they actually from that have written to DFID which is very supporting us and we are now actually starting a new project which is going to be looking at applying this to assess selected projects within the Delta Plan and it's a proof of concept so using it in a policy manner rather than a research manager assess multiple indicators of these projects including things like poverty things that maybe wouldn't be assessed typically in a project appraisal in terms of the kinds of things we can assess it can be engineering but it can also be subsidies new channels lots of different things can be assessed within the project and within a small project we are doing a side project called Reach we are looking at very different strategic policies for flood management in Bangladesh raising polders tidal river management we heard about earlier or even retreat just looking again, what if kind of scenario so conclusion, last slide this work I think provides a new link model and data framework for thinking about the future of coastal Bangladesh and the Bangladeshis have commented that this is something they haven't seen before and the people we are working with have engaged very strongly with the policy process as a result they weren't working before we started working I think it has a modular approach that allows incremental improvements so it can progressively change and be improved working with stakeholders was fundamental to the success of the project so far I think we had regular workshops people saw that we were taking note of what they said, it had local ownership they felt it was their analysis not our analysis not us as experts coming in and just imposing our view the issue there's clearly things, I'm very pleased we've got this but the issue of understanding uncertainty and sensitivity of the coupled model as an ongoing process all the individual components we understand but when you start putting together clearly there are questions there and we're learning as we go in terms of that three kind of key take home messages what have we learnt from all this huge effort well in the future up to 2050 more influenced common choice policy interventions and climate change but Bangladesh tends to get written off people say why should we invest there should it be gone, let's not bother well I mean there's a lot you can do in the next 30 years you can build a very different and wealthier Bangladesh which would be much less fundamental to the climate change but ecosystem services diminishes a portion of the economy with time that's continuing historic trends we try to really hit that and it doesn't go away it seems to be a robust result and significant poverty persists in some locations under all scenarios the development is still going to be important the natural economic growth you're seeing in Bangladesh is not going to get the problem to go away and I suppose like last thought, I think engaging with the kind of policy questions I've shown you here to my mind is a very good way of forcing consideration of the human dimension if you have to engage if you're going to think about the sort of policy questions you have to engage with human dimensions in some way which depends on the question you're posing thank you very much I was hoping that we'd end a conference set of talks on the dynamic dual and you did it fabulous so questions yeah Bob it was a fascinating talk I guess I have one question coming from the human dimension side and the way that the scenarios were used I'd be interested in learning a little bit more and I know there's only so much you can say now but you had exogenous assumptions about population and overall economic growth did the models how did they then translate that like I noticed your $1.90 a day statistic and I'm just curious were those things that were put in the scenarios or were those things somehow calculated in the models and any indication of how the demography the demography and sort of some of the economic growth scenarios they were scenarios that they had to be I guess with this kind of problem you always have to ask where do you draw your boundaries I mean it would be lovely to have a model where where the demography was an emergent property of the model and actually yesterday Attila Lassabra sent the poster on another project called DECMA where actually we're looking at human migration and there we're actually also going to have an economic model so maybe in the future we might, you know, again it's not planning through at the moment but if we can fuse these two together we can have that demography and the economics built into it but they were scenarios in this analysis because that was all because of resources other questions I'd like to ask also as your as your scenarios are kind of projecting towards increased independence from vulnerable ecosystem services and energy as a key part of that how explicitly did you model the transition of the energy infrastructure or was that just implicit in your economic models that was implicit I mean yeah we didn't mean I mean that would again that's another thing that we're working looking to the future it would be nice to see a merging of those to sort of bring those in one of the actually in the context of Bangladesh one of the biggest aspects of the low hanging infrastructure these bridges and transport network because the work on the sensors demonstrated that access was a big factor driving poverty along the Padma so building, so actually just improving those transport networks again it would be a fairly simple in fact they are building bridges obviously everywhere but I mean this would strongly support that so we have a break now after


When you buy outside of US caught fish, what you're doing is inadvertently supporting foreign fishing. You're buying seafood from countries that don't have any management. Or it's wide open, or there's very little management, or there's bribes, or there's... We call it IUU fishing. It's illegal, unregulated, and unreported. And that's not to say, as a blanket statement, that all foreign fish is like that. But there are many hidden costs of the cheap seafood that you're buying when you buy from overseas. Whatever you want to call it is very little management. It's not even going to, like, how much fish they're pulling out. Dr. Dish LA works directly with the local sustainable fisherman in the Santa Barbara area. And we bring the fish directly from the fisherman to the top chefs in LA. She lets the fisherman pretty much decide what they're going to catch, and then the restaurant, they'll figure out a way to give them people that they will enjoy. It's impossible to predict what's coming through the door. A fisherman of mine will head out for one type of fish, say yellowtail or white sea bass, and come back in with halibut instead. And that's just the fisherman adapting to the conditions and what's readily available in our own backyards. It really allows you to sort of spread the fishing out over a number of different species instead of just hammering the same species in the same place all the time. I can tell any of my participating fishermen that whatever they find, when they go fishing, is something that I have a market for now. All of the boats that we work with are owner operated vessels, which essentially means that the person fishing the resource is the person who owns the vessel and who's on the vessel on a constant basis. The boat we were just on this morning, Eric built pretty much entirely by himself. And I think that's a pretty common thing for a fisherman to want to have have their hands into every aspect of their profession or their hobby. Our boat is named the unacceptable risk. So I've known Shen and Weyman for a really long time. In fact, when they were 13 years old, they were volunteers in the sea urchin lab that I was managing at UCSB. And what you do is you put a loop on each other. So Eric Codge has really taken Shen and Weyman under his wing and educated them about sustainable fishing, about the regulations and rules. I just graduated from Berkeley and I just graduated from UCLA. My degree was in mechanical engineering. Yeah, same thing. We were both mechanical engineering students. I'm eight minutes older than Shen. We started fishing when we were about probably like six years old. Our dad actually also really loves fishing from when he was a child. Instead of the industrialized seafood system, which is really 10 to 15 people touching your fish from the fisherman all the way to the market or to the restaurant or to your plate, I wanted to be that one source. I would say that industrial fishing in general, even if you want to have sustainability in mind, your decisions end up being mostly financially driven versus what's actually good for the ocean or for your fellow fishermen, stuff like that. Connection to the resource and the management and stewardship of that resource is lacking. How many pounds we got? 25, 30? There are so many steps between the person catching the seafood to the person eating the seafood that inevitably it's going to be misrepresented at some point. In Southern California, there are 52% of the seafood that you would get in restaurants and the fish market was misrepresented. Doctor Dish for me is like, there's so many benefits, right? The fish is so fresh, it's ridiculous. Like this fish is moving around in this cooler alive right now. Inevitably after every single Doctor Dish delivery, the fishermen are asking me what the chefs thought, how they served it, what they did with the fish. They want to see pictures, they want to see photos, they want to meet the chef, they want to take the chef fishing. Like this is an integration of a community that has long been separated and we're bringing it all back together. I think supporting our local American fishermen is absolutely the most important, most sustainable move you can make.


Building inclusive learning environments requires a number of essential supports for both students and staff. While not every student will require the same supports, there are a few key elements that should be in place in order to effectively provide an inclusive learning environment for all students. While resources such as technology and access to specialists are vital to the success of all learners, the most important area of support comes from a teaching staff that is knowledgeable and has meaningful relationships with students and parents. Well, the most essential support is obviously the teachers in school. We're lucky at our school to have some of the most experienced, most creative teachers that you could possibly want for a program like this. The things that we're able to do in this school are frankly very little limited resources, just using sort of the own interest and creativity of the teachers that are in the classroom in order to provide personalized learning experiences is just fantastic. Our parents are our best advocates and they actually, it's something that they believe in and that they want for their school and their community. And we use them to actually help educate each other. And then it's conversations on an ongoing basis, especially with parents who are new to our school community who may not have had the same experience. We show them how we work, why we do what we do and give them the details that they need to know so that they feel that their kids are going to have the same success and the same opportunities as everybody else has. Working within an inclusive school environment can be a challenge for some teachers as they try to meet the needs of all learners. For many schools, the creation of teaching teams has been an essential component of their inclusive learning environment. Working with a teaching partner provides the support and extra help that is often required when working with a diverse group of learners. Number one thing for me is having a team partner. A team teacher in the classroom has been huge for the two of us with the diversity in there and the complex cases that we have in there. It allows us to pull out kids, not pull out, but work with kids in a small group. We don't have to explain to each other what needs to be done. We both know since we're both teachers. It really allows us to give the kids the attention that they need when they need it and it's not necessarily kids that are in L&L. It's any of the students and how we group kids and how we move through the classroom. In integration without people support is far more difficult. Having an extra teacher, for example, in our L&L program in the classroom being able to meet the needs of the kids as they arise. They are there all day and every day. That's an integral part of the program. It takes two teachers to really do this kind of environment effectively. So you have to include all kinds of learning and represent it ourselves in different ways all the time. You can't just stand and deliver. You have to do your lessons differently so that you're not always teaching to one group. Most importantly for teachers, the administrative staff must be at the forefront of setting the vision for inclusive learning throughout the school and providing teachers with the resources and time necessary to meet the needs of all students. I think the administration needs to be on board really quickly. I think that's a very important piece. I think when we have the concept of team, that there are different skills needed to support this. So when we have technology support that's offered as well, I think that was very key. I think you also need strong administration that is supportive. This is a process. We are continuing to evolve and get better and better and it is a big challenge to teach such a diverse classroom. You need administrators who say, I see what you're doing. I see what you're trying. It didn't work. This part didn't work. That's all right because everything isn't going to run smooth and there's going to be days and moments when you're pulling your hair out. But it can be done as we've evolved as it's gotten going. The success has been just, it's been moving to see students who came into our school and said, I hate school to now leading class conversations because they know how smart they are. What is considered an essential support for students depends on the unique learning needs and strengths they bring with them. A wide variety of supports may need to be in place to provide the choice necessary to create a welcoming and engaging environment for all learners. That being said, there are certain elements that should be in place within all inclusive environments regardless of individual differences. The most important element within an inclusive learning environment is for teachers and students to have a deep understanding of the strengths and needs that exist for each student within the group. Without this awareness, the needs of each student cannot be effectively met. In order to establish this understanding, many inclusive school environments incorporate learner profiles into their regular teaching practice. As a teacher, I think it's important that you understand who your students are and you help them to understand. We spent a lot of time at the beginning of the year doing classroom profiling. So we looked at multiple intelligences and talked to the students and interviewed them and their parents about what their strengths were, how they saw their strengths, what their interests were, what they saw as their needs so that when we sit down to plan units or to plan activities, we can look at that and approach it in a way that best suits their style of learning. The way that looked in our classroom at the beginning of the year exactly what Marilyn was saying was a lot of class meetings, a lot of sharing, a lot of not this is what you're going to be doing, a lot of who are you, how do you learn? Before we did, we've done several surveys in our class, but before we even did those, we talked a little bit about how they learned and we highlighted different things and we gave them a lot of very open-ended kind of assignments at the beginning of the year so that Marilyn and I could see as well, without any kind of instruction, what do they do? What do they bring to the table? Do they represent things pictorially like through picture? Do they verbalize it really well? For many students, access to technology can make a significant difference in how they understand the course material and demonstrate their learning. The tools and technology may look different for every student depending on their needs, but it is important for students to have access to appropriate supports when they need it. In general, this day and age is technology. It seems to be something that isn't, that is progressing and we need to have the support of the hardware to put in the kids' hands in sufficient numbers so that not just LD students can access it, but all students can and then we as teachers are allowed to change the way we teach so that we can incorporate that technology into our teaching into the way we approach not just our L&L program students, but all students. Well for us it's been key that the program that we're involved with, the L&L program, the students have a literacy disability. Thank you. And so they have all been given laptops which essentially in a lot of ways has kind of leveled the playing field for them. They use the program Read, Write, Gold so they can hear what they're writing. They can correct their spelling, it gives them predictions that they have been really successful with that and they print out their work and their work looks like everybody else's. So if we have the book on the iPod and it can be listened to in an audio version that not just the L&L students or the LD students get to access that but there are times when the other students can as well so that they see that it's technology to enhance the program, it's to enhance the learning, it's not just set aside for one group of kids. So I think the benefits of the technology have been to it takes those barriers out and they say, when people just say, oh they get a laptop, well the laptop is only as good as the person who knows how to use it. Same with the calculator, right? We give them a calculator but it's only as good as the person who knows how to use it but in building those tool belts that we say are tool belts of learning give them one more strategy to be able to write something down or to use speech to text. So I'm really good verbally so I'm just going to use a dragon or a Mac dictate speech because I'm really good verbally and I can record my ideas. Recently we just did a social studies test and the kids were just recorded their answers in audacity and just linked it to their tests and that's one more way that they can show their learning without having the stress of being able to compose text. Regardless of the technology provided or resources accessed by the students, many teachers within inclusive learning environments emphasize the importance of students being able to advocate for themselves. A really important thing in this kind of environment is getting the children to advocate for themselves, what kind of learning they require and how they would like to represent their learning. The better you know the child than as a teacher you will also learn some new things from them as to how to plan things for them, what works for them. There are different learning styles being aware of that. Having the visual learner, the auditory learner, being aware of all of those different things to deliver your lesson I find is essential. And it's about personalizing their learning so that we're helping them to be the best that they can be and helping them to understand what they need and advocate. That's a big thing that we've been talking to them about is you need to know what you need and ask for it. So we've really worked with the students on that so that they can go to a teacher and go you know I really need to use the computer for this and do you have an e-copy of that sheet that I can work off of. And for them to understand that and bring it forward to other teachers will help them to be successful in the future as well not just within this program and that's part of it to be a lifelong learner and carry forward a lot of this into their future learning. Building an inclusive learning environment is only possible when a supportive administrative team is in place to lead a dedicated team of teachers who know their students strengths and needs and are able to work collaboratively with their colleagues to build an environment that supports all learners. Students should know their own strengths and needs and have access to resources and support when they need it but they must also be able to advocate for themselves within any learning environment. With these supports in place an environment that provides for the needs of all students can be achieved.


Morrow just on to the floor for the first time with Brendan Bailey son of Thurrell and here's Howard with a pull-up short gets his own The spin and the layup and half has eight Sam Houser for the answer But he knows about the rivalries and loves this one Who drills a three? It's a car Adam and look at half of the steel Gives it up Davidson returns a favor and half all the way with the left hand count it Ethan a half a chance at a three-point play Trice on Howard Switch with four He is destroyed as he knocks Off the back Stanchion scored the basket and won Let's close out by Sam Houser under control Now the second wave of Wisconsin's offense and Bangs in the Bayley and scores the layup 18 for Ethan Cap with a chance to tie or take the lead hesitation by Howard And it's John kept it alive briefly half comes away with a board Last time down John Attacks the rim 24 for half. He just looked like he was going to the right way Turned the jets on gets to the room. It's got the Pfizer forum quiet Wisconsin's done a good job taking the crowd out Joey Three-pointer for Joey Houser This is two in a row Marquette can add to their lead now five and a half to go There's a steal by half All the way and scores Ethan Hap a Steal on the defensive end and a chance at a three-point play Howard gives it up. Here's Joey Houser from the corner Marcus Howard calls for the screen for three. Here's Howard goes by Revers Marcus Howard took the last shot came up just short 13 points for the freshman Is This guy has angles Cross over Howard all the way in knows Moral can't follow.