This is a town hall that we just have a very few people here, but I understand that because of the rain Wind and everything else, but also because we generally have fewer people and they see it. They recorded to see it There's a saying in people that are on boards at different places if people don't show up. Everything is okay When people show up, then you've got a problem Well, a lot of people show up so this will add this a construction update I'm just gonna get this started and then I'm going to turn it over to say by say this is the chairman of the board of trustees Here at MCC he's also been And a founder one of the founders. He's also been a founder of SRVIC and also a founder of ICPD So behind the scenes he got the lies been doing a lot of work for for decades Mashallah So with that we'll go through this pretty quickly and then we'll try to take questions at the end inshallah We're gonna start with just for people that haven't been here that long but also to connect Why we're doing what we're doing? We're gonna start with What is it we were trying to do when we built put emcee emcee together? What was the vision has to change has not changed and then what are some of the priorities? that we're trying to trying to achieve or focus on and Then the second thing is sort of a realization because it says MCC 3.0 If you think of MCC 1.0 as when we decided to do it and we were renting Right, and we had a Sunday school But that was it, but then we're renting we were renting a property, right? That's you can think of that as MCO 1.0 and then 2.0. So that started 2007 2.0 you can think of in 2010 when we got this one this proper where this company so it's been 14 much of the 14 years Right, and we've been doing things if I look back 14 years seems like such a long time We've been doing things slowly Right, they're coming in terms of building the infrastructure and doing everything over here We started with the two bathrooms then we started with this room Then we I think we put the between with the carpet and over there the carpet over there Just small small things here and there here and there just as the money came in We'll start doing a little bit here a little bit here the problem with that is I'm not that's all good, but now if you think about how large the community is and how much Pressure is the wrong word how much demand there is for doing more Right that says well we got a like turn up what we're doing in a very significant significant way and if you think about everything we heard in the past everything all of us have heard in the past two years three years, but what is being taught in schools and Just our bill and education is a big part of what we do and our ability really not fulfill that right now Well that says that's a problem, and we have to go figure out how to adjust to that Right and some of that came to came to the forefront when you try to buy the land And we got us and we walked away for a good reason But one reason we walked away from it as well We wanted to build a school if you can't build the school while you get in a land Right, so I think that was a reality check on we got to speed things up We cannot do this take another 14 years to slowly get to where we want to get to Right, and that's why I call it 3.0 So this is a major infrastructure change and a lot of things that we do at MCC Mostly when we talk construction when you talk instruction, we're talking about spaces But what we really mean by spaces is the service the education the programs that you provide there So that's really what's behind it And then we'll talk about well, why is it taking so long? Why does it take so long? How long is it going to take? What are you exactly trying to get done? How much is going to be we're trying to address all those questions also? So, Bismillah It's already talked about MCC 3.0 So that has to do with just accelerating what we're doing We need to get things done in a two-year through your time frame not in a 14-year time frame Right some things will take longer But a lot of what we're talking about here needs to be done quicker This is a vision and I think a vision as a dot on the wall. That's what everybody is aiming for right Here the baseball We all just thought of ourself as a regional community center Not just for one city, right a regional one and a bigger one meeting all the needs of the community and then also aiming to be like a model for what other Much as massages the community center should follow it's not a claim We make that we are we're that we aim to be that we want to be that and you can really need that what that means Yeah, I won't go through the through that in detail If you look at strategic priorities, if you look at the list, there's nothing new here The language may have changed and the what we the circles what what how we're labeling things may have changed But there are a couple things here that are different Right one says Saturday school So weekend school not just on Sunday is when on Saturdays we have to figure out how to do that It's not easy to do because it requires a lot more volunteers Right, but on the other hand we've grown at least three or four times larger than we were five years ago or six years ago So there has to be a way to engage a larger set of volunteers that we're engaging today K through five K through five is not new if you look at our original Bylaws we always said we all we're gonna have a K through five now the the emphasis on it has to be higher because of what's going on in the outside world and We'd like to also Figure out how do we get make it more than that? How do you get a middle school? How do we get a high school? Right, but we have to start with K through five and then we say well, how do we do this completely properly? The rest of it I won't read through you've seen it's a list of things the cafe is probably different than what we had thought about before We're thinking of that as a space for younger Muslims convert Muslims where it can just be a hangout space You know a space you just have tea coffee drinks Bobo, whatever that I don't know what that drink is people talk about it Yeah, I actually don't know what it is, but whatever it is So the hangout place where you just hang right and I've been to different massages and I've seen this I in mom Mom Modeds Mustard in Virginia Right there a little coffee. It's called. I should cover us the cafe. It's a small area and every Thursday It is full and there's nobody above 30 in there And it is full every Thursday because they have programs targeted towards younger people and what they do over there. They'll have a 40-minute talk The person who's giving the talk goes away There's somebody else comes in and All his job is her job is to facilitate What I think people around a table. What did you hear? What do you like about your herd? So there's actually a real discussion going on not just a you're talking head up top Right. I saw and I thought I was a very very wonderful. So I was surprised Everybody was engaged. This is what I heard. What do you think? What did you think? You know the type of stuff you see at school all the time So these are the priorities It is very much education centric social events to bring us together as a family services Cradle to grave and then reaching out to beyond the most of community Right that that is the range of things we need to do And now we'll go to construction plans so that gives an idea of if we're trying to do that How do we do this with these these the spaces we have and the spaces we can create? That's what this question is really about I'm gonna go through this and I'm gonna show it over to you So say it lies down a lot of work on this in terms of how do we take this to the Hacienda Office association. How do we take it to the city? How do we go through a approval process? What groups of things have it be done together because if you fix this you got to fix this and fix this together But if you touch this be careful to touch those sorts of things So he's put this together in three packages And I'm just gonna turn it over to you and let you talk about the packages Bismillahirrahmanirrahim As-salamu alaykum Thank you all for coming and braving this weather We understand it's really It's really Bleak outside to say the least It's windy. It's rainy But this is something that the community has been asking for some time now a construction update and Here we are So as brother purveys started to say Mentioned the three packages We've broken up the entire Remodeling into three packages Primarily the reason is first of all to see which functions fit together And So that we can take that package through the approval process In a way that it is not held up because of one reason or the other We operate the community center here Under a conditional use permit And you would see the abbreviation for that the a CUP Under the CUP we are allowed to do certain things With a certain capacity of people If we exceed those limits and if we exceed the functionality then we are required to go back to the city and ask for a Modification either a modification of the CUP or a new CUP That is something that we want to avoid because for one it takes a lot of effort and time Some if we are required to do a new CUP it may go back to the city and we may have a public hearing And all the neighbors get involved and so it's a long process So being able to avoid those That route we broke the entire Remodeling process into three processes even if one package is held up because of one reason or the other All other packages can proceed You know smoothly so that was The rationale for breaking this up into three packages Package one as you see is mostly the outside area There's a picnic area with a trullis A barbecue, a full-size basketball court A parkour with exercise equipment Outside Voodoo stations A lot of people would appreciate that community would appreciate that because if you're running late So that would certainly help the congestion Children's play structure, open play field and EV charging stations So here's I should say a bird's eye view of the first package As you can see the basketball court on the far upper side The green patch is the open play area Behind that on the left is the children's play structure And below that is the picnic area with a trullis on it It may seem like it takes a lot of time to get to where you know to actually do the project Before we actually go to the city for approval We have to agree internally amongst ourselves And different groups and different you know the different people who are interested in all this So even before going and applying to the city for a change or an approval There is a process that we go through internally And we also want to make sure that the design that we come up with is is follow It follows a certain pattern it follows a certain theme Which we of course being an Islamic center we keep it close to that So with that let me go to the next slide which is package 2 Package 2 gets more interesting in the sense we are planning to build a second story Add a second story to the existing MCC It will not cover the entire MCC structure the single story structure that you see now It would cover as much as we could which would be you know a partial covering And then pictorially what it looks like I'll have another slide that you can take a look at In addition to a sec basically it starts here It starts it does start here above the conference room and then it builds out that way And then it builds out as far as we can in terms of you know we end before we get into the tenants space So we can't build on top of the tenants space everything above that is the hallway the bathrooms Over the conference room and then out towards the parking lot Roughly it covers about 14,000 square feet if that helps To get that in to give that a context MCC area that you see currently Is around 30,000 square feet that we use So we're adding roughly 50% about 14,000 square feet for the second story Then the second story which is which primarily would be used for the Saturday and the Sunday school We have new admin offices below that which would be on the first floor Which would also have additional conference rooms, youth lounges, James men for men and women A parent child with children's playroom, a library and a seniors lounge We've all talked about this in the past and you may if you have attended any of the previous updates We've all talked about this, this is where we have actually put it down in black and white And right now it is in the process of getting approvals The lounges are on the first floor, yes So the package one has been submitted? Yes, and package two also submitted? Yes, and package three We'll get to it One thing I would add here is where it says additional conference rooms This is really the only teaching class area we have, it's a formal teaching class So the idea is to have nothing out of space But two additional ones about half this size where everything is all set up And we have classes there while these are going on also So we have our ability to have multiple classes at the same time Without going into much of the area We're going to add additional conference rooms, not this size, but smaller size Maybe half the size of some, a quarter of the size That are all ready to go multimedia, teach on the web, etc Which today we run into conflicts just in this room itself So that will broaden our ability to have more and more programs simultaneously Basically only Sunday and Sunday And they're related like their admin offices, a conference room for the teachers And there's another slide we can go through But all the lounges and everything are on the first floor And we'll talk about it Okay, great, thank you So here's the drawing of the second floor And basically, as you can see, this is one of the sheets that we submitted for approval Roughly it has about 25 classrooms There's offices for admin The conference room, there is a bathroom, a set of bathrooms And a break room for the teachers So it seems simple in the sense that a few lines draw a few boxes here and there But there is a lot that goes on behind this And the reason I say that Things like what we have to account for The classrooms for say the special needs children Have to be close to the bathrooms So how do we design that? What is the city looking for in terms of the capacity? Are there enough exits? Are there enough staircases? So all those things have to be designed It looks simple, just a few boxes here and there But believe me it's a lot more involved There are two sets of stairs and an elevator that we would add So here is a pictorial view of what the second story would look like If you look at the slide A, that gives a real good picture The lower structure is what we have now But what we have today, you see the pink colored roof going around the structure That's where we are today The second structure is the layer above that And that's what the second story will look like once we complete it Other slides on this show what it looks like from other directions North, West, South But the basic concept is what you see in slide A Here are the elevations Again, the only emphasis that I was trying to make was The bottom layer here is what we have today And the layer that you see above that is what we are building and adding as a second story And again, this is one of the sheets that we have submitted for approvals It can be used for K-5 But when we talk about K-5, that kicks in some other requirements Just as, for example, it has to have a play area If we have a K-5 school, for it to be approved as a K-5 school, we have to have a play area It is not designed for the K-5 play area Package 1 is not designed for that yet But once we get into the process approval, that will be a separate approval from what we are doing now K-5 would come later Once we are past this, once we have implemented this Then we would be in a position to address the K-5 The strategy here is to try to get this through without a CPU change That may be a CPU change We know for sure if we do a K-5, that is going to require public hearing and blah blah blah blah And holds off everything So the idea is to design as much as you can With the idea you may switch from both Sunday Saturday and K-5 But only those things you can do without triggering everything else So it is a little balance of trying to do in between I am sorry, the other thing I would just add on the In addition to all the things on the second story We will also be, this is not directly connected to Pack-A-Shoot, but has to do with the inside We will be raising the ceiling in the prayer area and the member And the imams will be able to come in from the outside directly into where the member is And behind there is going to be a little imam's room And behind there is also a little room for EthicAF For just a few people that are here like all ten days, not seven days My question is that if you thought about it that maybe in the future We may be able to have the prayer area around the mosque somewhere So that you know, just thinking ahead for the future Let's hold off on that question There is a broader question about high school and middle school and so forth But inshallah we can talk about that Package 3 is also interesting in the sense of, you know, we have to have food of course So Package 3 consists of a dining hall, a cafe, part of it Part of the cafe is covered and an extension to that will be open And associated with those would be a commercial kitchen So that we can have proper food for the events So here as you can see this is the first floor for packages 2 and 3 What you see in red on top is package 2 first floor And then on the extreme right hand side is just, if I may point out This is the Merab right now And next to Merab is the Imam's room that Pradeh has talked about These are the existing bathrooms, the parent-child area, play areas for younger kids Two additional conference rooms, another conference room Just the other side of this wall, of course a smaller size And then there are admin offices as you enter the building on the left hand side Also over here is the ladies lounge And that opens into the, this is the ladies lounge, that opens into the ladies bathroom Men's bathroom is over here on this side, next to the bathrooms here This is the library, the senior center, and then the main lobby And all this is part of the package 2 And keep in mind the second floor that goes on top of this is also part of this package Package 3, here is the dining area Roughly we are looking at about 350 plus, able to accommodate 350 plus people It may get to 400, but then again this is the package that we think Most likely the city might want to revisit our CUP And that's why we have bundled this as a separate package So that if this takes longer, we can still be doing the other stuff So we are not delayed Here is the commercial kitchen That serves the dining area on this side And serves the cafe on this side So let's talk about where we are today And see where the 3 packages are Package 1, the CUP modification is not required So we are within our limits And we have already gotten the Hacienda Owners Association approval for that And right now it's been with the city for about 3 weeks now And we are expecting a response very soon I think next week, next Monday I should be knocking the doors at the city hall to see where we are Construction for the package 1, we have already started as you may have noticed outside And part of the reason is we are doing those things which do not require any inspection or approval So we are moving forward in being able to do that Package 2, we have verified that it does not require a CUP modification Hacienda Owners Association has already approved it And we will be applying to the city within a week or so There are some additional things that the city wanted Like the renderings that we looked at for the second floor And they want to make sure the color scheme and everything blends with the rest of the office buildings In this office complex Package 3 is also ready And at this moment we are anticipating that the city might want to review our CUP The CUP modification is relatively simpler than going for a new CUP altogether So let's see what they come back with and see what they want and then we can take it from there We will be applying to the Hacienda Owners Association within a week or two with that package Like you mentioned that the association approval is most more difficult than that of the city They are very thorough and they check everything to the last detail So once you have that approval, the rest of the city approvals are mostly mechanics Which we think we can handle So that brings us to numbers, how much does all this cost and how much have we spent So we actually went back and said let's not just tell you how much we are doing now Let's go back five years and how much have we been spending So you will see a set of numbers and on the left it is by area That's the big table on your left hand side On the right top it's roughly by year And the numbers are not exactly, they are approximately, they are close, they are not exact So we look at furniture, the couches, offices, the furniture, the offices, the carpets, etc About 25,000, the lobby itself, which includes the doors, the windows, the woodwork The drywall or the gypsum wall, some people call it, or wall board The metal, sometimes the sheet metal behind it, the woodwork, the staining, the ceiling, all of that stuff About 135,000 and that includes the ducting, the electrical, blah, blah, blah, blah, right And if you look at that ceiling, that's actually a pretty strong ceiling on that side We can actually use the part that's not part of the second story for storage There's a lot of space up there Prayer, the glass partition that's over here, the shoe racks, the flooring, the new offices, fire alarm, painting, staining The roof, the HVAC, parking lot, etc, etc So that looks like a lot and it is a lot, it's $900,000 plus over the last five years And if you look at it by year, most of it has been done post-COVID We did a little bit of pre-COVID at 2019 and virtually zero in 2020 because nobody was doing anything The construction workers were not available, they weren't allowed to come out And 21 also was slow COVID year And then last year was a very significant set of money spent A lot of that also, by the way, if you look at just down here on consulting The people we use to help us plan stuff One of the things, as I mentioned, that the HOA, the Hacienda Office Association is very strict They wanted to know exactly what lights we're going to have where And they wanted a photometric study to see how much light is going to be going to the neighbors So you hire a specialist to do that And that's another extra month, two months You don't know that they're going to do that until you're in the process We were talking about having the basketball, they wanted a six-foot fence around it We wanted something higher, that was an argument he had seen my had with the HOA going back and forth That was like three weeks And when you say what takes so long, if anybody has done construction There are all sorts of things that pop up that you are not expecting And it just takes long Lurie does, right? And I will say, Saeed Mai is doing this completely 100% volunteer There's no dollars, there's no personal benefit at all Inshallah, there's great personal benefit in terms of blessings In terms of blessings And then, so that's how much we've spent so far We'll talk about how much we think we're going to spend going forward And then we also said, well how much have we raised? And that's the bottom right-hand side, by year There's money, donations for the building fund or the construction fund Okay So there's $780,000 we've raised I did not include in that, by the way There's a $50,000 donation for the library That somebody gave, very specifically for that They want their name on it, etc, etc, etc So since we haven't spent it, that money is a part We've just allocated a separate Right, because we don't want to touch that money Somebody gave it for a purpose, it is for that purpose So one question to ask is what's going on here You spent $900,000 plus, you only had $780,000 Where is the magic? How did you do it? Well, this is donation money Some of the money that we get from the rent also goes here In the early years, some of it went for operations Now we're trying not to have it all go for operations So that we still have to raise a lot of money But it'll reduce the amount of money we have to raise If that money can help on the construction side And that's about $25,000 a month And we don't want to use every penny that's in the construction account Because something bad, you know, weather We've got to keep $100,000 or some number like that Just in the bank, never use it just in case, you know, money So we have to be careful how we look at this So that's how much we spent Now this gets interesting is how much all these things are going to cost And these are estimates In some cases they're bottoms up Most are bottoms up approximates In some cases we know most of it, but we don't know this section of it But we know all the other part around it So package one is going to cost about $600,000 And that's all the outside stuff With everything outside Which includes by the way a sewer line that's going to go underneath certain things So you don't talk about that But there's other things going on that make it expensive The basketball court by itself is going to be expensive We have to redo the parking lot, the number of parking spots In the entire area Required now We have to have X number of EV stations We have no choice on this Required So once you start touching things The city has all these other requirements And if you've done houses, you know that You have to come up to You have to come up to the recent permit requirements Then versus the grandfather ones Once upon a time ago So that's the least expensive one Well not the least expensive one That is sort of the Expensive one But the really expensive one is package two Because you are putting a second story Everything up there is going to be new And the foundation below has to be strengthened Right And we're putting two staircases And we're putting in bathrooms up there And we're putting in an elevator up there So that becomes very That all adds up And is all the things downstairs we're doing also Which is additional conference rooms Is going to be a gym, a lounge A library on that side A library on that side Am I missing anything? Other offices And also the Upbringing of the The machinery here itself Approximately 1.6 million Now you may say that's a lot But think about this You're getting 14,000 square feet For 1.6 million Just not available 1.6 million will get you a 3,000 square foot house That's what 1.6 million will get you Right? Does she just think about A way of thinking about it? This will get you Four times as much Or five times as much Yeah, there's a question in the back I'm sorry this question was Answered earlier But do you mind explaining what happened And purchase attempt? Yeah, just put out a hold And we'll do that As soon as we get through this Yeah, go ahead How much of the funding is secure? Or nothing is secure? I would say The reason I'm only hesitating Is because we had a lot of money That came with the land And a lot of it is being returned Right? And I think we're about 80% Probably returned So there's a little more Right? We can probably cover package one We can probably cover package one With the funds that are here Beyond that we have to raise But we don't want to wait To the last minute to raise And can I ask you For package one Are we losing any parking spots Or adding more? Are we plus or minus one or two? Right? So for the entire Property we have About 307 parking lots Parking stalls So after doing all this And taking into account The newer requirements That you have to have All the EV stations The carpool parking stalls For van pools and all We will end up With maybe one less parking stall Out of the 307 And we're trying to Even get that back So that we have the same parking stalls That we have today And with the parking shortages That we have In the future We Did do an exercise To Come up with How much it's going to cost And the cost was very prohibitive To do another structure Like a parking structure Is what you're talking about Underneath or above It's not like how we say In shopping centers It takes two spaces Yeah The cost is really prohibitive To do a separate parking structure Okay, thank you Okay, so Any questions on Costs What this says is We're going to have to raise About 2.7 million The first one we can cover We're going to raise about 2.7 million We're going to start this Ramadan I'm not expecting to raise 500,000 or a million rental like that But just get the process going Get people getting Excited about this Maybe raise a couple hundred thousand Dollars, maybe 300,000 A number we've done before And then We will do what we used to do before For those of you that haven't been here a long time And some of you have been here a long time We're going to go rent a hotel We're going to make it a big deal Get everybody excited Everybody's going to look at each other And we'll raise four or five hundred thousand dollars And we'll have to do that twice a year Because we want to get this done in the next two years We don't want to get this done We don't want to wait 14 years So there are two ways to do this Get into a habit of raising money And set the expectation That we're going to be doing that And it's for us It's not for us Me It's for us And then the other is One getting people Getting used to it And just shortening the time And then if we have to go to the Karzai-Hassan route We'll go to Karzai-Hassan route Because we know when we did the land Somebody asked about the land We know in a very brief period Right in the 60-day period We had raised A little over three million, I think Closer to three million And about half was Less than half was cash And the other half was Karzai-Hassan And it came like this And then we started We stopped doing it Because we had a clear idea This is not going So we stopped doing it So the capacity to raise money is here The interest is here If it's a good project We're not a good project people won't give But if you ask the question Do you want more rooms, classrooms We can do more programs Do you want a place where kids can play Do you want a place where youth can play basketball Or a little running area Do you want a place where there's a library Do you want a place where there's a ladies gym They can just hang There's a men's gym They can just hang There's a lounge And there's an outside cafe You can just hang That's all going to be there This is so much different Right now we have a very open area And as everybody knows It can become crazy Because everybody runs around This gives spaces for activities Defined And then it's just a matter of What do we want to do with them Turn it up Yes I have a few questions But at this moment I think we're This is a big difference For the youth You're saying You just said I believe that You want to try to please me Because I'm going to talk about the basketball Is it really going to Is it really going to Well I mean what do you really You need three things To get something done You need something approved You need the money And that's in the constructions actually for phase one is in process, right? We are expecting it to be done the approval process We are expecting the approval process to be done. I would say four to six weeks and Then inshallah the goal is to have package one done by this fall inshallah That's the goal Unless we hit anything Unforeseen that the city might want additional studies. They want they might want any additional information or they might want to It's unknown at that at this point what the city might come back with in terms of questions, but Our goal is to have package done by this fall inshallah Yeah, and I will say I think There's a difference between vision and execution Right, and we started talking about this two and a half years ago probably, right? And But if you realize it was until not that's the year before we did the survey of okay Do you really want full court half court that the yeah, these things have their their cycle of time? I think we I could have done better and just saying Look where the early stage here and this we have to go through a Detail stage and then you have to go through an execution stage right. We're completing the detail stage Right is the way I think about it. We're completing the detail stage because you know it when two packages are I Mean three packages are ready to go Now it's just okay flow it out Money is going to constrain us not initially Money will constrain us here Which is why I get that started that process started now and then people are going to ask well wait a minute Were you raised money so and when nothing came through why should we give? But the answer is gonna be the question you just raised right if you don't give now this will get stopped Because now we are on the other side of this and is it going through the approval process? Alaykum So I have actually one question and one suggestion. Yes for the K to five Putting the education in the very first one, but I don't see any timeline For what one is like is 2030 or when is the plan for the for package to no no But the school the K to five. I think a five. Yeah elementary school. What is the plan? Okay? That is one question and another suggestion. This is actually not question suggestion is that In our community, I don't see actually we have a lot of professional here I don't see any engagement actually for example Why somebody lose his job or ensemble some university looking for job internship actually in barrier I mean in USA what I see that networking is really important and when you have a referral actually the locator resume And we don't have a referral it didn't even trade resume. How good you were and in Hindu community Indian community is very they're very powerful when they actually lay off in Metra or Google I saw how they have sales have the sales force how they help each other in our community We don't have anything and actually I'm willing to help you actually that volunteer for this kind of thing So we can make a community that when they can help each other actually when somebody loses job While in the universities is trying looking for link their internship We can do that actually make because you have a thousand Muslim in here and they work in different places We can help each other and I'm willing to volunteer. I don't say you do it I'm willing to do it actually, but I need help actually to do this thing. Okay, so Bismillah Okay, so there were two questions here, there's K through five and then the the others question about Resume building and job hunting and so forth so Please do volunteer there they have been resume classes here. I know they've been several classes over the last year Resume building classes and so forth No, no, I understand. I'm just like that's one that's one tiny aspect Do volunteer the first thing I would do if I were you is get other volunteers to work with you get a group And then you can make it then you can make it work with respect to K through five And I also want to answer the land question somebody. I think he's not here anymore The K-35 question the K-35 question is a very interesting question. I think we have to do things in parallel Okay, my parallel mean I mean we have to have we have to do a second story for for for Sunday Saturday school if that can become K-5 that's fantastic Okay, I think that's gonna be hard and I think it's gonna take time I think at the same time we have to do exactly what we did with the land We have to start getting serious about this and we have to say Okay, is there something available that we can buy? Okay, because it'll solve several problems. It'll be a second location It'll offset all the park everything we're doing by the way is going to cause more parking issues Right, not quite as bad as Friday, but it'll cause parking issues. So having a second location is actually also important right So while we're doing this We are going to keep an eye to see there's anything that makes sense for us that can be a school It's gonna be rare that we could just buy a school as is I don't think that's gonna happen if it I don't know if it does That's fantastic having said that we can look for smaller spaces that we converged into schools Yeah, well, let's do this. We're gonna take a prayer break and after that right after Right after far we'll do some quicks in there And then we'll come back but only for 15 minutes I don't want it to drag out because everybody will start leaving anyway We'll get started Let's say make sure we come back. So we just answer the one question about the land that was asked earlier So in terms of land We actually announced this back a while ago. You're the person asked about land, right? Yeah, we announced this back a while ago and there's a whole Talk back in July that we did similar type of town hall, but basically the land had two or three fundamental issues one was The zoning was stricter than we even thought it was and that has to do with a 80 Which I just to say zone a with 80 acres They're very very strict and what's allowed of us allowed there. So basically if it's Agriculture-related okay, but I think outside agriculture the answer is no, right? second thing is we got there at least four endangered species and The the Issues of how to deal with an agent species are very very complex and They're four different agencies two state agencies and two federal agencies the US Army Corps the US Fish and life something or the other and the state versions of those And then the cost per species per acre To pay off like I'm gonna work was very very high We looked at those two things. I was like well, I can't build a school. I can't do this. I can't do this Why am I getting a land? Right, it was beautiful land by the way, but then we would just we said no walked away from it Okay There's there was a question This is so asked earlier. Why can't we do the dining hall and the cafe first? and the reason that I think say I already answered had to do with There's a higher risk of a CUP change or modification being required And therefore that's the last in the package to go through.  We go back and forth so Basically, I think you touched on this a little bit But I was wondering if any of these construction changes help mitigate the problems on Fridays with the congestion, no, I think it actually makes the congestion worse Right, I won't make the congestion on Friday worse But it'll make the congestion worse because we're gonna have more activities here going on all the time Saturday school Sunday school shouldn't make that it doesn't really cause that much Congestion cause a lot of hubbub and activity, but not our congestion so I That is why I think it's really important for us in addition doing everything we're doing is to It's very easy to say look just do this But five years are gonna come and go and we'd better have a school here in five years, right? So We can't just say we're gonna do this is all we're gonna do and not start looking for buying some other stuff Because we are we will be out outside the capacity of all the things we want to do at this place Right, so we will look if you find something tomorrow, we'll Gen it up tomorrow, but until we find something that is sort of the right thing for what we're looking at That we stick to this path Oh, yeah. Yeah, the land actually it's not that far. It's just seems far, right? No, if we do the school, I think we're limited to Pleasanton Dublin and maybe the southern side of San Ramon It's and and that's about it. I think that's the that's the area, right? And unfortunately that is the expensive area. That's also the area is hard To find available spaces the good news is there is commercial space I mean commercial properties are not doing well right now And you know something may pop up. We are looking at things something may pop up. That's like, okay. It's good enough Right, you want to be a little careful of good enough may not be really good enough, right? If you be careful with what I just said because you don't want to make that oh It's a relative of five million dollars. Let's go do it But it makes it means 80% of our needs and we really need 95% bet Right, so if you always make those judgments and and not just jump on something we see at the first first site Let him finish his question follow-up question. I'll go back to you Okay, do we have a dependency on phase one and phase two and phase three? What if if the what if if the city approves to and fix three as well, too? so can we take as Preference preference over phase two Like changing the order of face one face to face one Alhamdulillah started but phase two and phase three if we get the approval from both so phase three has a dependency on phase one The commercial kitchen We have to run a sewer line outside the building along the area where we're our Our picnic area is going to be and connect to the sewer line on the street so If worse come to worse if you don't have the approval for phase three by the time we are ready to start phase one We will allocate some means in phase in implementing phase one so that we have to do minimum work When we implement phase three? So the impact is kept minimum So that's Phase two as per se does not have a dependency on any of the other phases Yeah, inshallah, that's the plan So the question is a timeline for phase two For phase one we talked about a completion a goal for completion of this fall inshallah for phase two The timeline seems to be the fall of next year completion day So that's the goal party if you recognize is We have to figure out what to do at Sunday school while we're doing this work Right, so when's the best time to do it so there's timing other timing issues involved also Will be on new premise inshallah 2025 24 25 25 25 25, okay When we do phase two so this complete area will be not usable when we're doing that or we can use this space as well as concept the level to This area on this side of the prayer hall will not be usable. Okay. Yeah, thank you Yeah Because we'll be constructing on top of this So I can wow Have you put into consideration that when people play on the basketball courts for project for package one that the neighbors will be affected by the noise So the It's a it's a consideration that the association the Hacienda owners association take into account and They have considered that and they do not see that as an issue issue for the neighbors for the noise the city might come back and place some Restrictions on the timing of the use of the basketball court They may say that you cannot go beyond say 10 p.m. Or 9 p.m. At night So as not to disturb the neighbors but as of now the we have the approval from the Hacienda association and We do not have any restrictions placed from them Yeah, I would just assume that it's a no-go after Asia like after or so you don't play outside Something like that. That may just be our own restrictions also on top of that So I Have it to think for the heat for the noise thing I think probably for the basketball court, do you have a gate and lock it because what happened would happen? I'm seeing that during Ramadan at something midnight if people praying for some youth actually if they're walking around They may come and play at the 3 a.m. Probably that maybe we have a gate just Locked the plan is to have a gate And the second thing actually you're talking about the school. We may have the sun them on South Dublin or Pleasanton. I'm thinking that why because here is very expensive Why don't you consider liver more because the one means a walking? Cheaper and I saw a lot of my friend actually now go to the hayward for the school in here and some of my Person I know of my friend and for the Islamic school They move from Pleasanton to Sacramento brain to another and I think mountain house They have another school right now So they're moving from actually they are only for the school and somebody moved to Dallas I know one person he was a liver only for Islamic school. They're moving to Dallas for this one So if you think about that people are moving outside of our community only for the school So maybe never more is cheaper option. Maybe So, I mean, I think that's those are some good ideas a couple of things I would say is The examples you gave all I think of those as exceptions That doesn't mean there is not a trend Right there is a trend because things are just too expensive here So you move you start moving outside of here So there is some of that trend also going on liver more is a potential it just has to be close Because the the majority of the people who we're talking about tend to be on this side and Little more I used to live in the liver more little more ends up People come in go out come in go out come in go out except for the people at the at a few places like the laboratory If you can find the right place like on this side of the more it's it's better if you go further out I think it's you just won't see that many people taking this traffic Because you know that that that small distance can be a Horrific on 580 right both ways depending on what time you're doing it. I've done the commute myself I lived in liver more so I know but little more is a pot is there was a potential just to be on the rights closer on this side Yeah Yeah, the only thing I would say is I think the question everybody's raising here Valid questions and has to do it wise has taken so long Right, which is a very valid question and my answer would be the same as I said before if you've gone through a large Construction project in your house this is 3x the complexity and You're not just doing with the city you're dealing with this housing the the Hacienda owners association and then to We have to tell people in advance To get discussion going to get feedback to go through that process And the clock starts here when we start talking about it, but we're not ready Right like we're now talking about the idea of maybe we'll buy something if there's something available But that may take two years three years to find but we have to get the discussion going Right the clock starts when we get the approval That's when the clock really starts because then nothing happens You do all the planning all the detail work, but no execution starts But you need to have the money before you get the approval because otherwise then you're stopped, right? So that's it's a combination of all those but I think we should have done a better job It's sort of explaining that up front. I think we would have done better Yeah, this one last question and then we're done in 15 minutes. Yeah, go ahead, please I'm really pleased with all these ideas that we have. I'm especially excited for the cafe that we're going to you have mentioned But I was also wondering I know Alhamdulillah this much it sometimes has Some knowledge seminars like maybe two three times a year like an original shahia came and talked about Muhammad and the Quran So some and we also had that 40 Hadid seminars But I was wondering if we could also consider having more Regular consistent opportunities for seeking knowledge like perhaps like a weekly tough seer class or Maybe a short talk between Mughal Venetian Salah or some other time where with worse people can be available or Even I think said I'm one much in a while ago also had like a introduction to the Urdu language for several weeks Yeah, yeah, or another idea could be besides this religious education There's a lot of software engineers Alhamdulillah this community We can have like for the youth maybe an introduction to see plus-plus on the weekends or something like that Yeah, some of that we've done a little bit of but not a lot of but I would say All of these things are all they're all good and we should do all of them There ones that we should drive a little bit ourselves But we're welcome to be driven by everybody, right? So it doesn't take much, you know somebody that wants to do this They go through the process with Manir. We look at it and off you go, right? And we've had we've had a few what we desperately need though is So a fundamental curriculum That everybody can go through Right. This is what you need to know about your Akhida Akhida not in a legalistic Not in not in a purely legalistic way just understanding. What do we believe in right? What a thing? What theology is on this fundamental understand the Quran the Quranic language understanding of Arabic understanding of You can do list goes on right there about six or seven areas we have curriculum that is that is base-level medium and advanced Right for different sets of people. I think we can start doing this I think we have people in community can do it. We just have to get it organized and get it done We did Alhamdulillah run the fear Surah Yasin to fear a series with sheikh the lal We have done that and also the question on the software side. We have introduced that we have brought some of one of the big AI grew to the community. So inshallah. We are working. This is for the board of board of directors or board MCC board question You can even committee works on these things so you can check with them Okay Bismillah Jack everybody. Thank you so much


This episode is brought to you by Game On Snacks, jerky that's changing the game. Enter the promo code FREEDOM at checkout for 5% off all orders. What is up everyone, my name is Destiny Mike. Last week we discussed first impressions and how to get viewers to your channel. This week we're going to discuss thumbnails. Now that the viewer has clicked your channel and they decide that they want to see more, there are two things that are going to make and break your channel. Thumbnails and channel layouts. First, let's talk channel layout. If you have not yet enabled the browse feature on your channel, chances are people are skipping over your channel. It's very easy to mistake a content creator for a viewer if you don't have this feature enabled. This is because it typically shows your full activity. It will show the comments that you've left on other people's videos, it will show the videos you've liked, and then it will show your videos that you've uploaded, but sometimes it'll be lost in the clutter of all the other stuff. This all depends on what options you have checked that you want to share, but it's a lot better to set it up for a browse feature so you can lay out your channel the way you want. Typically a creator wants to show off their work, so if they're not showing it off on their channel, chances are when a viewer visits that channel, they're going to want to skip over it because they can't tell that it's a creator. So if you've not yet enabled browse, visit your channel, click the edit button under your channel, and then click edit channel navigation. Under browse hit enable and now your channel is ready to start organizing. Take a moment to make some playlists, add sections, and feature your channel trailer. Ask yourself, if I'm a new viewer, what would be the best way to navigate the channel and understand what you are all about? For instance, on my daily vlog channel, I have a year recap as the trailer so viewers can see if they're interested. Then I have a playlist organized by months and by years. Now if your channel is laid out properly, there's only one more thing you need to do in order to keep your viewers around, and that is thumbnails. Don't settle for the pre-made thumbnails that YouTube creates for you. More times than not, they're normally pretty bad and will easily get lost in the sea of videos out there. Now if you're like me, sometimes it's hard to keep up with thumbnails, but this does not mean to skip thumbnails altogether. So I'm going to give you a few quick tips to thumbnail making, even if you're not the best graphic designer.  If you don't have Photoshop, there's plenty of free good ones out there that you can choose from. Now let your photos in, you can add some text, add your logo, or simply make an overlay with pre-made shape layers. Don't clutter it up, but make sure to make it pop. Now that your thumbnail is done, save it and upload it. And now before you close out of your software, delete the photo and save your project file. Now you have your very own thumbnail template. Now next time you go to make a thumbnail, export your favorite still frame, import it, and you're basically done. Change your text accordingly, your colors accordingly, and then you're good to go.  If you keep this up with each video, not only does it make your life easier, but it builds consistency across your channel as a whole. So create templates that you think would work for you and make your life easier. But anyways guys, that's it for me today. If you want to see more of me, check the playlist in the sidebar and you can get all my tips and tricks that I post up weekly. And of course you can visit my personal channels. The links will be in the description below or you can click the video in the end slate. But anyways guys, I'll see you next week. See ya. Thank you for watching and I'll see you in the next video.


Someone drowns in a tub nearly every day in America. According to a Scripps Award News, service records from 1999 to 2003. Experts blame alcohol, other suspects homicide, and undetectable suicides. The pictures are of the 90-year-old man that was having a bath. He had something that looked like an oversized element from a kettle to help with keeping the water hot. Unfortunately, he died and was in the bath for over two weeks. With the water almost boiling, what you see on the left side of the lower picture are his legs. When trauma cleaners took hold of his legs to try and get some of him out of the bath, all the cat was a bone, and it simply slide out of the flesh. The following did the cleaners came in and scoop up almost 50kg of goop that made up his body. If you look closely at the picture, you can just make out the shape of a body. Obviously, the smell must have been horrible. Distinguishing the manner of death as natural or violent, the forensic investigation required a careful examination of the scene, in addition to autopsy and toxicology study. Carps, we women, found partially submerged in a bathtub at her home for four days. You might think she's pregnant but she's not. That's how her body decomposed if not found for some time. Our stomach bloated. The water level marks suggested the circumstances in which the body had remained after death. Alcohol, tobacco, and prescription drugs were present at the scene. She had history of alcohol dependence. No signs of violence by others or suicidal intent were found in the scene. Investigators distinguished her death as unintentional. To make sure the cause of her death, autopsy and toxicology tested high amount of alcohol in her system. While she was in the bathtub lying down, blood pressure record, she suffered autonomic dysfunction. It's a non-consequence of chronic and excessive alcohol consumption, leading her sudden carjap, death. Most of the deaths caused by heat shock were a sudden change in temperature experience when getting in or out of the bath rapidly changes a person's blood pressure, leading to a heart attack or another medical issues. A housewife was relaxing in her bathtub. But bad things happened and fire broke out. Falls and electrocution are the most common type of injury sustained in bathtub. Police found a woman submerging her bathtub. Unfortunately, there is no further details of what caused her death. But as what you see, there was a telephone cord also submerging the bathtub. It seemed she was on the phone, a possible cause of electrocution. A suspicious death of a man named Yi Li Yang who died in a bathtub. Hair dryer plugged into extension cord failed. A possible reasons of his death electrocution. A conspiracy theory I found online talking about the manner of his death is homicide. Stating that Yang's head and neck were twisted to his right side, the reasons he might be murdered. In addition, Yang wore his watch on his left hand. Weirdly and peacefully lay in the bathtub when he was washing his hair with a hair comb, towel and folded glasses lying under his feet, his hands put on his chest. In Japan, about 19,000 bathtub deaths annually. The death counts of course mostly in the winter season and 90% of deaths are elderly persons. According to a demographic statistics released by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, a picture shows a boiled man. He was in the bathtub with a carbon monoxide from the heater, malfunction and drown. The water temperature in the bathtub was high and boiled in his corpse for 9 hours. As same as in Sao Anas, butting in hat-taps while drunk can also cause the body to become dehydrated. Many hotels post-warning outside Sao Anas, watching people not to go in if they have consumed a lot of alcohol. A drunk couple from suburban Chicago was enjoying their hot tub moment until it went wrong. When the husband accidentally trapped and drowned his wife, Eric Husko was arrested in his home and charged with the death of his wife, Laura. According to police, home security video showed the couple drinking in the hot tub at their home for some time before the distressed Laura unsuccessfully tried to get out. It also showed Eric initially trying to help his wife but then closing the tub's lid over her head. Eric returned to the tub about 90 minutes later, opened the lid, and found his wife floating in the water. Police and paramedics were summoned to the Husko's home. Laura was rushed to Glenbrick Hospital, where she was later pronounced dead. The medical examiner found the victim's manner of death to be drowning by entrapment. Police have yet to determine a motive but they say alcohol was a factor. Husko appeared in court and had his bail set at $10,000. Police said the husband had no prior criminal history and they had no record of service called to the Husko family's home and wheeling where the pair have lived since 2003. Eric's Facebook page was filled with romantic photos of him and his wife, including in their backyard hot tub. This tea composing individual about to sip a full glass of wine but died of natural causes while sitting in a warm tub. Note the bloating from putrefactive gases causing the body to float near the surface. The consumer affairs agency makes developing recommendations to avoid heat shock and bad safely. Do not take a bath immediately after eating or when there is still alcohol in your system.


James, ddodd am yw'n ddigon. Ysgol ffigwunitwyr William Gibson rwyf wedi bod yn siwr bod y dyfodol yma yn ymddynt yn ei ffordd iawn. Mae'r ffordd yn ysgol iawn i'r ysgol i'r ysgol yw'r newid yn fawr am ymgyrchol ymddynt, yw'r cyffredin iawn, yw cyffenig a'r cyffredin iawn, ac yw'r cyffredin iawn i'r cyffredin iawn, ac mae'n ei gyd yn i, ac mae'n rhaid i ddodd yn fawr yn fawr ymddynt, ddod o y cyfrystdyn ni'm ar ti'r pryd, a'r ddydwyd brydwyr ni'n gwybod ar hyn o'r llwyafol. A'r ddod o'r chylywb ar hyn o'r cymaint yw am rhaid i'r gofyn ac eich llwyffol. Yna'r ddysgu allan o'r pryd y mae proffeddwn yn gwybod o'r cychwyneth arniadau. Yn safnol, mae ddiolch yn'w gweld i'r cymhysg? Yn y cysydu oharo i'r teimlo, erdw i'n siaradol i'n gwybod i ddych yn ychydig a'r y theme yw gael ar beth hynny yn dweud y cyfnod gyneud. Rwy'n wir o'r hŷn yr uniau phobl psychologigol a FAAI ac yn gweithio Cymru, mae'r cadw i'rheidio cyfnodau cyw enemyll yn y Rhwylau Ffawr yn ddod eich rhan o'r PRFA. A'r James i'r newid hynny mae'r gwahwchau'r hwn yn yr unig o gwybod o hanes ar gyfer hydyn ôl o'r diolethaf iawn melynadau yn gweithio iawn a'r hyn yn ymgynnu. fod balw filed followed the argument that for when we try to understand decisions, when we try to provide decision support, increasingly the awareness of our cognitive limitation shows us how humans will be increasingly out from the loop and that huma machine redeaming might not be the answer to many of our problems. There are examples where psychology clearly shows that we would be better off with people of the team. Then I'll talk a little bit about how the application of AI, particularly in wargaming and simulation is pointing the way to making recommendations that are otherworldly and that we don't understand yet we can empirically show to be better than those decisions made by a human. I will ask the question, what do we do in a world when we don't have explainable AI and we have recommendations that we know we should make if we wish to be as effective as possible but we are concerned about, because we can't explain why we should make them. We are moving beyond narrative in our decision making. Finally, I will bring it back down to Earth and talk about the way I think Cyflawni, Fflawni, Gwyrdraeth, ac A, gallwn cael ei ddigonwyr fyrdd hynny, ac mae'n ffordd arweithio'r ffordd sy'n credu'r ddigonwyr yn y ddigonwyr. A'r hyn o'r ddigonwyr, mae'r ddigonwyr yn y ddigonwyr i'r ffordd a'r ddigonwyr. Mae'n rydw i'r ddigonwyr yw ddigonwyr yn y ddigonwyr rydw i'r ddigonwyr neu mae'n rydw i'r ddigonwyr oedd ymddir y ddigonwyr ac ydych chi'n cyfnod o'r ffordd o'ch chi'n gyd, o'ch chi'n gyd. First premise, my attempt to convince you that you are just data, your biology and behaviour are reducible to maths. Ysraili historian Yufol Noah Harari haes argued that we are all biochemical algorithms. We take an input, we process it computationally in the brain and nervous system and it leads to an output. When you begin to gather that understanding, you can see how you could be manipulated by manipulating those inputs or recording the outputs to draw inferences about human behaviour. It's a point made even more clearly by Peter Watson in his brilliant 2017 book Convergence. He talks about how increasingly the sciences are merging. We always understood that we couldn't understand physics without reference to maths or almost always. We came to understand that we couldn't understand chemistry without reference to physics and ultimately maths. Eventually we got to a point where we understood that you couldn't understand biology without reference to chemistry, physics and ultimately maths. Today that's true in my field of psychology. We understand that you can't understand psychology without reference to, here we go again, to biology, chemistry, physics and ultimately maths. That's true across economics, across medicine, across the human and life sciences. The sciences are slowly converging indeed the invention of the social sciences was specifically to bring quantitative, mathematical or statistical, principally statistical methods to understanding human behaviour in fields where maths was typically alien like maths, like history and geography and other fields. You can begin to see how maths is at the centre of all of this and in my own field of cognitive psychology that's precisely what we do. I would put a group of people like you in a lab, I might run half of the room through the experiment and the other half through the same experiment with a very slight difference in the input that I give to you, what you're asked to do in the task. Then I'll measure the outputs, I'll record everything that you've done and then what I'll do is I'll use statistics to draw inferences about what went on computationally in the centre of Harari's biochemical algorithm and use that to make forecasts about what people like you would do in similar situations. I'm reducing your biology, your behaviour, your decision making to maths. Now that matters because we live today in a virtual panopticon, a world in which we watched more closely than we ever have been before, a world in which there is more data available on us than there has ever been before, a world in which it is like a continuous psychology experiment where data scientists, psychologists and others are able to measure in real time your behaviours and see, make predictions from the behaviours you've done in the past to infer what you might do in the future or to change the inputs that are offered to your decision making to see how that changes the outputs. To get an idea of the volume of that data, it was said a few years ago that by 2020 there would be 5200 gigabytes of data per person for everybody on the planet. So every individual in here, by 2020 it was predicted, would have 5200 gigabytes of data available on them. Now that equates very roughly to something like 18.5 million books. If you gave an intelligence officer like me or my colleagues, 18.5 million books of data on a person, and they couldn't draw some reasonable conclusions, some inferences, some insight and foresight about what you might do in the future, you couldn't make useful predictions, they shouldn't be in a job. It's for this reason that the Harvard economist Sushana Zubov says that soon technology will know us better than we know ourselves. That's particularly true because we are appalling guides to our own behaviour. The sociobiologist Robert Trivers argues in his book, Deceit and Self-Deception, that the biggest lies we tell in life are the ones we tell ourselves. That's one of the reasons why in psychology we're not always interested in what you say you'll do in the future, but by drawing inferences from things you didn't even know about yourself to make predictions about what you might do later on. On the slide I have a cut from Dylan Curran, who's an activist, his Twitter feed in which he describes all the things that Google know, but of course it's not just Twitter, it's not just Google's data, it's vastly more than that. It's your credit card records, albeit anonymised, but we've shown how quickly from anonymised credit card data we can identify individuals again. It's your insurance data, it's your supermarket loyalty card, it's where you go, it's what you do, it's who you talk to. It said that if you have your smartphone with you, you'll have been geolocated some 23 times in the last minute, and 1400 times in the next hour. That means we can begin to infer where you go, what you do, who you talk to, where you sleep, perhaps even who you sleep with. You can see that kind of unprecedented insight and foresight and what it might be able to do to draw inferences about your future behaviour from other people like you and what they have done. Now the first time that this combination of psychology and big data really broke into the public consciousness was with the Cambridge Analytica scandal. I will rehearse briefly what that was, but what I won't do is get into the detail of whether it worked or its political implications. But I think we can draw some really interesting insights that talk about how we make decisions and who we are as people from this case study. There's alleged illegalities and all sorts in that campaign and hence I don't want to get drawn into it. But fundamentally what they did was apply science to understanding how we made decisions, what our preferences were, what we might think about a particular issue. And personally tailor political marketing, or perhaps you might prefer propaganda, to micro targeted audiences having built a profile on for example roughly almost every single American in the United States based on, in their case, on Facebook data. But of course it could have been done on vast arrays of data and even more if you relied on some of those data brokers that I talked about. So specifically what Alexander Nix, whose picture on the slide did, was he drew on the work of Michael Kosinski, a American psychologist who showed in one of his studies that with 10 Facebook likes you could derive a better personality assessment built out from psychology's ocean model than if you gave that abbreviated version of the survey to the individual to complete themselves. So you've got a more accurate impression of who a person was based on 10 Facebook likes than if a co-worker were to fill out that personality survey. If you had 150 likes that personality survey was more accurate than if you had given it to a friend or co-habitant to fill out on the individual. And if you had 300 likes that ocean personality survey, the most reliable measure we have in psychology for sketching out people's personalities, was more accurate than if you gave it to a spouse or partner to fill out. And that's important because the ocean model has been shown to have higher external validity, that is higher accuracy in predicting life outcomes than if we were to ask individuals themselves, on the rivers' line, the biggest lines we tell in life are the ones we tell ourselves. The ocean model has been shown to be able to predict your propensity to fall into substance abuse, your political attitudes, and indeed your physical health. Indeed, sometimes Kosinski's work has shown building a personality survey from big data was more accurate than if you gave the personality survey to the individual to fill out themselves. That was used at scale. The Trump campaign, for example, boasts of having rolled out some, I think, some six million ads in just the last few days of the campaign, personally tailored individual marketing to get an idea of why that was so effective. I'm going to move away from the controversial political domain and into something that Netflix have released publicly on their own blog. So what Netflix do, you all know when you log in, Netflix, like Amazon, will say, hey, you watch these shows, therefore you might like these shows, right? You had these preferences, other people like you might like these shows, and so you might too. But it also does some much more sophisticated things. It doesn't just suggest shows that people like you might watch. What it does is it personally tailors the image that you see to maximise its likely effectiveness on you clicking on it and ultimately watching the show. So we take here the science fiction show, Stranger Things. Now it might work out that I'm the kind of person who, for example, likes, let's say, horror movies. And so it might present me with that picture in the bottom, I guess, right-hand corner as you look at the screen. But perhaps it identifies you as somebody who's more interested in the social side and you're more likely to like buddy movies. And so it picks the single-centre image and presents that to you. Now I don't know whether Netflix do psychometric modelling, whether they build personality models in the way that Cambridge Analytica did. I'd be very surprised if they don't, because ultimately this is the science of influence. It's trying to build pictures of people to maximise the effectiveness of your product. The other thing that Netflix do which is illustrative is they run very rapid A-B testing on this. So all the people like me that watch these shows and perhaps have this personality or psychometric profile, they say, okay, well, there's the image we're going to show, Keith. But if I don't click on it, if I ignore it, and if lots of people like me aren't clicking on it, in real time they change it.  And that is what Nix and others were aspiring to do with Cambridge Analytica to run personally tailored individual marketing campaigns and to run them through A-B testing to refine them continuously to maximise their effectiveness. So what you might say. Well, first of all, before we get too caught up in the illegalities and the concerns that this might raise, we need to recognise that this is just the science of influence. If you wanted to deliver a marketing campaign for example, you always tried to understand your audience to segment it into groups that had particular preferences to tailor your marketing to maximise its effectiveness. What we're seeing here is a tool that is really just the scientific approach to that, drawing on modern, currently available tools and cutting edge research. So the question is, what should we do about it? Should we regulate it? Should we ban it? Should we protect the data? There are huge ethical questions when we know people's intentions better perhaps than they know their own. How far should we go in using this? Particularly when we know that there are states out there that are doing very similar things to our populations across NATO countries and other democracies to try to influence the outcome of elections. It raises a second and related question that the US think tank Rand have been discussing over the last few years. How do we protect our citizens' cognitive security? How do we go about making sure that your decisions are as independent as they possibly can be, accepting that no decision is made free of external influence? And how do we do that whilst protecting individuals' freedom of speech and the right to self-expression? There are no easy answers to any of these questions, but the ones that those of us in the defence and military sector are having to ask ourselves, people in politics are having to ask themselves and people in business increasingly are having to ask. The second implication that I want to draw about this is that it changes how we think about the science of influence, the science of persuasion. Dominic Cummings was the architect of the Vote Leave campaign in the UK. I spoke at a conference alongside him a few years ago to a similar audience, and this case is about 200 people of marketing professionals. Now, most of the marketing professionals unquestionably had voted Remain, so Dominic Cummings was like the anti-Christ on stage to them. And he did everything he could to kind of play up to that image. He talked about how he hadn't won the Vote Leave campaign by employing, as he said it, bullshitting charlatans like you in the audience with bad degrees in gender studies and English literature. We employed mathematicians and physicists to model human behaviour. We did it at unprecedented scale and at unprecedented speed and with unprecedented effectiveness, and the consequence of that is that all of you, he said, talking to the marketing professionals, will be out of their job. Now I guess for this conference, that's good news, all of you might be in a job perhaps working for individuals like this. However, for those of us that are involved in this kind of thing, it goes to show that understanding that humans are just data. It goes to show it's important and it begins to suggest that this is not going to be a sport for amateur enthusiasts. It's going to need people with deeper technical qualifications as well as people with the ethical understanding to continuously set boundaries around a science that we are building even as it is employed all around the world. Now I put up this deliberately overwhelming slide, not to overwhelm you, but in order to illustrate a point. This is a whole raft of mostly psychological research that shows what we can do with that combination of big data and psychology, perhaps enabled by AI. It's this kind of research that has led Emarshul Turner and I to begin working on a pre-concept idea of cognitive manoeuvre, taking a small sample from the science of prediction and saying, well, what could we learn about people's behaviours? What could we do with this science? Let me give a couple of examples. In the 1980s there was a study done on leader's language in the Middle East and it showed that the integrative complexity of a leader's language, a really fancy way of saying how black and white the words they used were, was a good predictor of whether that country was likely to invade a neighbour. Really, that's just sat on the shelf as a kind of interesting curiosity for years. But what now when we live in a virtual panopticon when the volume of data available on us is unprecedented? We've got data from public TV, from CCTV, perhaps even people's personal conversations. What if we can begin to pick up verbal tells, maybe behavioural tells as well, that are predictive of a leader's propensity to invade a neighbour in the way that that research showed? Well, it might enable us to act much, much earlier to deter, at the moment we rely on things like, well, how many tanks are there moving towards the border? Has a country announced conscription? A whole raft of other indicators, that are much more sophisticated and might enable something totally different. If it still sounds like science fiction, let me give you an example from research conducted by a friend of mine in the Department of Experimental Psychology at the University of Oxford. John Gallagher is a reservist military officer and a brilliant psychologist. He's only a young guy and his research is yielding fascinating insights. He was able to show that if you monitored dialogue within Facebook groups between right and left-wing groups and used contact theory, psychological theory pioneered at the University of Oxford, you could make predictions about offline violence based on those interactions in publicly available Facebook groups. He was able to show that you could monitor those groups to predict offline violence such as that at Charlottesburg. That's where we get into what James was talking about earlier, where we're really knocking on the door of some quite science fiction-y stuff. What if we knew that there was likely to be violence just from those interactions before the individuals themselves had even committed to conducting that violence? It might indicate the levels of policing we need and the way in which we prepare and respond to that kind of thing. Again, perhaps you're still thinking this is science fiction, Keith. It's nonsense, so let me give you a third example. In 2016, Andy Haldane, who was then the Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, made a public speech which I'd recommend everybody downloads. He talked about the way in which they were getting after the application of AI to big data to draw unprecedented early insights to inform the Bank of England's monetary policy. He explained how, for decades, the Bank of England had commissioned the University of Michigan to consume a sentiment survey across the US. That is, they would phone people up and say, hey, and then ask a whole load of questions, like a standard survey, so again, self-report data, remember, trivers his thing. The biggest lies we tell in life are the ones we tell ourselves. That's why we're not always reliant on survey data, but it was the best they had. They would build out pictures of public sentiment, consumer sentiment in the US, and then they would use that to say, okay, because consumer sentiment is high or low, therefore Bank of England monetary policy should do this, going into tomorrow when the stock market is open, and they refined that as often as they could. He said that was useful, it was the best we had, all we could use, but we tried something new over the last 12 months. We bought Spotify data, and they did it, I'm almost certain, from one of those data brokers I put up on the slide earlier, Tower Data, Nielsen, Exolate, and these kind of companies that aggregate all that data and then sell it on. And from that Spotify data, they were able to run an algorithm that tried to correlate changes in what people were listening to in the US with changes in the Nasdaq and S&P 500. They were inferring consumer sentiment. I think he talks about mapping the economy in real time. They were inferring consumer sentiment and they showed that Spotify data, the music Americans were listening to, was a better predictor of movements on the Nasdaq and S&P 500 stock exchange than that self-report data from those surveys that the University of Michigan had used for years. Fascinating, Keith, but why do you care?  Well, I care because if you think about that, we've got music that's listening to us as we listen to it. We've got kindles that read us as we read them. We've got Netflix watching us as we watch it. We've got unprecedented insight into people's mood and behaviour and preferences. Perhaps we could use those kind of data streams to do something similar as what Andy Heldain did and map consumer sentiment to stick with that term for a moment in countries that are hostile to us. Wouldn't it be fascinating to know if you take consumer sentiment as a proxy for national mood and if you stick with me on that and say, okay, maybe national mood is a proxy for what the military talks about morale and if you understand that morale is at the centre of military effectiveness and political influence. If we could map the way in which a country is responding to particular actions, military or otherwise unprecedented insight into that country's psyche, into the way in which the national mood was, in the way in which they were responding to what we were doing, and we'd get nuanced data. We might know that one part of a city was supportive of something that NATO had done while another part was opposed. We might begin to get some really fascinating and important insights that enable us to refine what we do. Now, I could talk about all of the studies on that slide to show this kind of thing, this unprecedented insight and foresight, this real-time mapping of people's intentions to enable forecasting of future actions, but I'll leave it, probably some of you have photographed it, I'm sure you can get access, but you can begin to see the kind of things we might do. The next thing I want to talk about draws on an article I wrote for a blog called War on the Rocks, very well-known in military circles, perhaps not here, but if you're interested, you can download it to get more detail. I want to start drawing from that insight I put up earlier. It's estimated that by 2020 there'll be 5,200 gigabytes of data on each and every one of us in this room, and actually that estimate we already know is an underestimate. The advent of the Internet of Things and wearable tech is meaning that I think the latest estimate was something like 55,000 books of data on each and every one of us every day. Now, if I'm sat at my desk with my team of 10, 20, 100, whatever, analysts, and each of them are getting 55,000 books of data on everybody in the world just from open source data, they're never going to be able to analyse that. It either sits on the shelf, goes unanalyzed, and therefore in the aftermath of something like a terrorist attack, people say, we're all about it. We did, but it was buried in this huge stack of data and we couldn't do anything with it. You're going to have to automate that or you're going to leave data unanalyzed. That's unclassified open source publicly available information, albeit you might have to buy it in. It's before we consider the vast amounts of military data that is held on those people and areas that we're interested in. That's what led Raytheon's vice president a couple of years ago to talk about how the military today is swimming in sensors, and that's something for insight, and most military and security organisations don't use that publicly available information that they talked about. They just use the military data. When you combine those two, we're going to be overwhelmed and consequently we're going to have to automate some of our analytics. I would argue that that's both necessary and desirable and important whether you work in business politics or the military, because we know about humans cognitive limitations as a psychologist. I could describe to you some of those things, information bias, a whole raft of biases that change the way we process information, particularly when it moves at speed, and I give a very brief example there of a civilian casualty incident, an incident where civilians were killed in a Ruskin in Afghanistan when all the information was available to prevent that happening. It just wasn't because of, and it's specifically referenced in the publicly available report afterwards, that people were overwhelmed by the data deluge. That also matters because we say that we will always have a human in the loop, and we say that for political reasons, we say that for legal reasons, we say that because we worry what it means when a military organisation delegates authority for lethal force to a machine. We worry about it, and we should worry about it. It has really big ethical implications. But we should worry about the inverse too. It's perfectly possible that we might be able to show, empirically, that a machine is better at recognizing an enemy combatant, a threat, with a lower force positive and force negative rate than a human in the same position. Particularly when that human is perhaps being shot at themselves. Particularly when there's vast volumes of data available and he or she doesn't know what to look at. Particularly under the pressure of time that is always necessary in any military contest. What that means is that the military might find itself in court, not because we delegated authority to a machine and pushed ethical boundaries, but because we didn't. Because we have a mother of a soldier who was killed, because he or she didn't take the decision to fire when there was a threat that an AI could have detected more accurately and reliably than he or she did. Or from the mother, the father, whatever of a civilian who was killed because a soldier under pressure failed to accurately recognize him or her as a civilian and took the decision to shoot. Because they have a higher, humans might well have a higher force positive and force negative rate on a machine. If we can show that empirically, then the mothers of those soldiers and civilians would both be right to be equally outraged that we didn't delegate that authority. In NATO nations where we're held by the rule of law and where those kind of things are deeply concerning to us, we need to think really hard now about this mantra that will always have a human in the loop. The last thing on this slide I want to touch on is human machine teaming. I don't know how familiar that will be as a concept to this audience, so I'll explain it briefly. After Gary Kasparov was beaten by IBM's Deep Blue in 1997 at the game of chess, remembering that chess was originally a war game, the military looked at that and thought that's really interesting. Perhaps we're going to get to a stage where computers are able to make better decisions than humans are. What should we do about that?  The human and the computer, the human machine team always won. That was really good news. Okay, so human and machine teaming is going to be the answer. And we still repeat that mantra. You'll find it in our doctrine. You'll find our senior officers repeating that frequently. I'm not sure that it's true anymore. In chess, for example, when time pressure is on, it's long been the case that the machine would beat the human and machine working together. Horari again, writing in Science Magazine I think two years ago now was summarising data from the world of human machine teaming, or central chess. And he was able to show that increasingly it was the case that even when there was no time pressure computers were now so sophisticated that the computer would consistently beat the human and machine playing together. Our wetware, you might argue, had become the limiting factor on the software. And that's really interesting. I think increasingly in a number of fields we'll find that the machine is making better decisions than the human and there will be examples of where we will have to rely on it and consequently I argue that increasingly in decision making and particularly in decision support humans are going to be out of the loop and off the team and we need to think really carefully about the technical, professional and most importantly the ethical implications of that. And it's not just in intelligence analysis that we need to start thinking hard about how psychology can illuminate the science of decision making and the application of AI and big data. This slide has a key G losing to AlphaGo to an audience like this so I hardly need to rehearse this but again I would remind you that Go, the Chinese game was originally a war game designed to test generals and see how good they are and what we saw when key G lost to AlphaGo was that if any of you have watched the documentary you'll see this happen live there's a point where the machine makes a move that it shows it doesn't think any human would have made in X million different iterations of a game and yet it has calculated across such a huge mathematical game space and across a depth of recursive reasoning so deep that it's got beyond the human reliance on narrative. Any psychologist will tell you that the way we understand information in humans is through telling stories it's through narrative. Even a science paper has a beginning, a middle and an end and tells you a story to make sense of the data. What was happening here was that the artificial intelligence that Google's deep mind had built was getting beyond narrative and that's why Michael Redmond who's the leading western player of Go said this is causing me massive problems Redmond makes his living as a commentator on the game and he said there's something inhuman about the way AlphaGo plays I can't attach a story to what it's doing he said it's like watching a creature from the future a human with a superior intellect perhaps even an alien playing the game it's making these otherworldly moves really, really fascinating stuff and it says to us okay well what about when we apply an AI in a war game and it has calculated probabilities across a mathematical space so broad and so deep that it's got well beyond the human ability to keep up and it makes a recommendation that we don't understand perhaps some of you think this is total science fiction we'll consider the next grand challenge that DeepMind have just taken on DeepMind applied AlphaStar in StarCraft 2 and for any student of war StarCraft 2 should sound familiar is based on game theory so there's no one optimal decision that always wins right like a paper scissors rock what I do depends on what you do and my optimal decision depends on your decision so it's based on game theory it's based on imperfect information like any military campaign you have to conduct reconnaissance to find out what's going on it's based on long term planning so a decision I make at the start of the game might lead to me losing later on and there's nothing I can do about it it takes place in real time in a large really large action space and what it points to since StarCraft 2 is a master status in fact it's the front cover of ScienceMag I think just this week since that happened it points to the way in which AI might revolutionise warfare perhaps you still think this is science fiction well the Chinese openly in their doctrine now talk about moving to intelligent sized warfare the application of AI at every level to make decisions because they believe ultimately it will outperform humans as happened in Go as it happened long ago in chess and now in StarCraft 2 the Russians in a media report last year talked about how they're now applying AI to command red and blue force commanders in massive war games to help them make decisions and so consequently we need to think much more carefully about what this means what happens when an AI makes a decision like it did when Michael Redmond can't explain it what happens when it calculates that recursive possibility I think that you think that I think therefore we should do this and I just can't apply a story to it we are probably going to have to accept recommendations that we don't understand but I recommend that in response to a Russian incursion in Moldova we should put in an opera in Baku and I can't explain to my commander why it says that but I know because we played the game a million times because we've seen it in the past that it outperforms us we're not going to have explainable AI always but we may have to trust what it recommends and finally to my last point as I see the clock tick down here and the point I most want to drive home even if you think all that is science fiction consider this I think the first thing that the application of automation to apply in its broadest sense from simple macros and scripts through expert systems to machine learning is going to revolutionise decision making even if we choose never to apply it the reason for that is if you ran an artificial intelligence, an AI algorithm of some sort, however complex in that kind of simulation that I'm talking about it might tell you that you need to go we would say in the military left flanking up the beach or right flanking or up the middle and it would say we should do that with 90% confidence on the left up the centre and it would have done that based on the weight of fire, based on the armour based on the level of training, based on the weather whole load of things but it will give you a mathematical forecast of the likely outcome it will say x probability and y timeframe here's the thing AI might be a black box but humans aren't a crystal box it's very hard often to disentangle why we made the decisions that we did and that matters because we need to compare whether automated analytics or whether they're supporting a decision or making it outperform the human and what that means is it's going to be much much more careful in describing how it is we make forecasts and decisions so to illustrate that, as I said I'm an intelligence officer I have been for the last 18 years I can't tell you how good I am which is astounding really I don't know whether forecasts I make with 80% probability come to pass 80% at the time 0% at the time or 100% at the time and that means I don't know how good I am you might think well that matters because psychology shows us that a forecaster's confidence is inversely correlated with a forecaster's likely accuracy so the more confident I am in the forecast I make the more likely I am to be wrong okay you might say that's interesting well it matters even more because we also know that the more confident I am in making a forecast the more likely you and my commanders are to believe me forecasting confidence is positively correlated with your chances of being believed and trusted so we have a situation in which the people who are most trusted are the people that are most likely to be wrong so the first thing we're going to have to start doing is really picking apart carefully how we make forecasts and that might be true and crucial in life saving in my domain of military and security analysis but it's just as important for all of you whether you're in business or politics or other fields we don't know how good we are because we say we're too busy to baseline our performance as we are and it matters if you're making decisions too because we don't know how good we are at making decisions we don't know whether decisions that we make and we say okay I'm going to make this investment decision I'm going to make this business decision or I'm going to make this operational decision in the military we don't track okay sir mom whoever is making that decision why did you make it, break out the premises apply probabilities, apply some maths even if it's heuristically that performance to the performance of an algorithm that is either making that decision or supporting that decision and see if we get better, we just don't do it because we say we're too busy so the last point I want to make is even if you think most of what I said before precognition, that application of AI to offering otherworldly advice that we don't understand is too far fetched at the very least I hope I've shown how the combination of psychology, big data and AI will change how we understand ourselves how we make decisions and how we campaign whether it's in the military whether it's in the political or whether it's in the domain of business and marketing in ways that are unprecedented and revolutionary many thanks