The following is a presentation of TFNN The Trader's Edge with Steve Rhodes At 1-877-MAC-27-6648 or internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER> The Trader's Edge Now Steve Rhodes Good day folks, welcome to the February 23rd, the wonderful Wednesday edition of today's Trader's Zed Show. I'm your host, Steve Perseverance Rhodes, who absolutely knows that each of us should always be pioneers of our future versus prisoners of our past. Hope everyone out there is having a great day. Hey, let's make sure we have an extraordinary one. And the easiest way to do that well is to always remember that life is happening for us, not to us. That's right, we need to make that one little two-by-four shift. Well, it means we can find the gift. In every set of circumstance, that life is going to toss at us. Now today, you and I, we're going to go check on the circumstance of these markets. We'll go figure out what those bulls and bears, what those buyers and sellers are communicating to you and I just passed one o'clock in the afternoon, although right now it's just passed eight o'clock in the morning. So if you are listening live, we would love to hear from you. You can give us a call at<PHONE_NUMBER> if you can't call in. We've got you covered there too. Go ahead and send me an email. Send it to Steve at TFN.com and inside that subject heading, if you would be kind enough to put radio show question, of course, in our Tigers, Dynamite, any and every ping will do. So let's go ahead and get this show started on wonderful Wednesday. Of course, this is Tiger, Financial News Network. I'm Steve Rhodes. Welcome to less show right now. We've got the U.S. equity futures pointed higher. The Dow up 254 points, 33779 is a print. NASDAQ 101 and a quarter percent, 168 points. The ES many up nine tenths or 37 points. And the Russell's up about one full percentage point. That's about 19 points to the upside over in Asia last night. You had the Shanghai finish higher as was the Hanksing as did the 200 Australia index over in Europe this morning. You've got the Dax and the Futschi both trading higher. Golds off nine are eight bucks right now, trading at $18.99. Silver 14 cents, trading at $24.17. You've got Lightsweed Crude trading out $9169. That's back 22 pennies. The 30-year Treasury down 13 ticks, she's trading out at $152.18. So let's go begin with let's go begin with where we're at. Where do we do yesterday? And to do that, we go take a look at our four daily equity future contracts out here. So just beginning in the left hand panel, that's the ES many. We can see that yesterday was a test and rejection of support. Support in this case being the bottom of that profile. You can't bust them down. You try to bust them up. Bust them up would mean what? That would mean trying to move up to about the 43 79 level. We'll show you where that number comes from momentarily. In the case of the NQ, it's trading below the bottom of its daily profile. But what it did do is it went and tested and rejected its January 24th swing point low again. Can't bust them in the downside. What do you try to do? Bust them the upside. That'd be about the 14-1-12 level for the NQ. The Dow tested and rejected the bottom of its swing point. That was at the 33-366 level. Can't bust them down. What do you try to do? Bust them the upside. Where does that take us to? Potentially 34-3-10. In the case of the Russell 2000, not only did it test the bottom of its daily profile yesterday, which it rejected, it also tested the top of its swing point. Now, its swing point is the 28th of January. It's the 24th for the ES NQ and the Dow equity future contract. So you've got a double test and rejection out here. Does that give it the more oof? No, not necessarily. And price right now is trading above, just slightly above the level where we would think that it would run into its countertrend rally. So where is Stevie coming up with those numbers? Well, we're going to switch our panels. We're going to go to the white background charts for the four daily equity future contracts out here. Oops, we were going to try to do that. But obviously, Stevie went to the wrong panel. That's the intraday chart. Not that you don't want to look at that. It's just not that doesn't flow with my presentation here. Now we're back to the daily chart. So what we can also see is in addition to pushing lower inside the ES NQ and the Dow, prices moving lower, doing less relative energy, generates that roadsman to indicator signal, and therefore a bullish reversal candle would confirm a bottom. Well, you've got a bullish and golfy candle right now. It's only 8 10 in the morning inside the ES mini. So that's suggesting, okay, that possible. Now, where would price run to? It would be that oscillator and change line would be the first level of resistance. So it's about 43, 80 in the ES, about 14, 1, 12 in the NQ, 34, 3, 10 in the Dow. Now that number is going to change up and down as price moves up and down. So use that as kind of the range right now. But when you take a look at the Russell 2000 in the very bottom right hand panel, prices trading just above that red oscillator and change line. So this could be suggesting move up to about the 2061 level. So that's what's going on in the daily equity futures contracts. But I don't know if that really gives us the message because I mean, I've given you the message here or its messages that price should go target those red oscillator and change lines, can't bust them down, test areas with lighter volume, so on and so forth. But really what I think we need to do is do more of a deeper dive. So let's begin by taking a look at the ES mini, rip this apart here. We'll do this by going to kind of a, I guess what I call a trading view for the ES or for really anything that we will put up here from a futures standpoint. And that is when I get here, there we go. So now we take a look at, we got the ES mini, you just have the daily panel in the upper left hand corner. And then we move to all the different intraday timeframes here that Stevie is tracking. So you've got the five hour, that's 300 minutes, the two hour, that's 120 minutes, the one hour, 60 minutes, 30 minute chart, the 15, the 10 and the five out here. So we're really trying to, you know, really get granular here to interpret what the message of the markets is. Now, when I take a look at these charts, there's a couple of different things that show, that stick out to me. What would those be? Well, let's just start on the very left hand side. So we've got the daily, we know price is pushing lower trading into that January 24 swing plane, testing and rejecting the bottom of its daily profile out here. So that suggests that run to that oscillator and change line, the five hour timeframe chart. Do we have any kind of a message out here? We really don't, not one that I see prices back inside its profile. That would suggest to move maybe up to the 43 72 or 44 one level, but no bottoming pattern. A lot. We move over to the 120 minute timeframe chart. And as price was moving lower yesterday, it was a two hour chart that ended up generating that road's momentum indicator bottom. Price is moving higher. You're in bar number eight. As we speak right now, I believe that current session, well, I can't tell you that way. Tell you this way. Current session is going to complete at 10 o'clock. So we just began bar number eight out here. Now, if bar number eight can take out the high of the day earlier this morning, that high at 43 45 50, then that would say between, see this can be bar number eight. That's 10 o'clock, bar number nine at noon. So I would say between 10 and two is what you'd be looking for. I know that's a wide, but we're looking at a two hour timeframe chart between 10 and two is when you could see a TD nine count top. Now that TD nine count top should it form should take price up to the 43 58 to 43 66 level out here. That's the two hour timeframe chart, which is really giving us kind of the, the, the better of the messages out here from a timing frame standpoint. Well, other than the 15 minute chart right now, the 15 minute chart right here, I'll just expand this out. You can see that set a 15 minute basis. What price did was it formed a TD nine count. Now we're really getting granular, but it formed a TD nine count high. Let me get my cursor out here. I can tell you exactly when that pattern came in on the 15 minute chart that was at 445 this morning. Price moves lower and moves lower where right into the TD nine count breakout level. That was at 43 18. Yeah, it gets just slightly below that. That was with bar number nine of a TD nine count. So you've got a little bit of a consolidation inside. So if you're looking at the granular level, what's going on, you've got a little consolidation inside the ESMini simply between 43 18 and 43 45. So that's what the message coming from its charts out there. Steve Rhodes with TFN. We get back from this breakout here. Well, we'll continue on with this. You know, I've got something else that I think I will do unless I see some request by email or inside the tiger's tent or certainly you can give us call it<PHONE_NUMBER>. I'll be right back. What's separating you from the most successful men and women on Wall Street? That's right. Information. 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TFNN educating investors. 8-7-3-7-6-1-8 Welcome back folks this is the Early Bird Special Edition now we're coming to you live it's 8 18 in the morning if you're listening live thanks so much for listening at the one o'clock hour I should say. Thanks so much for doing that we'll make today's show as pertinent as we can for you. We're going to go to our first request and this is the Early Bird or Hector and Patty. They want to take a look at Wells Fargo Corporation and Hector's just looking for a potential entry point it looks like for mid to long term holding so Hector as we take a look at this black set of background charts out here what we know is that price is trading below the bottom of its daily profile not necessarily a good thing but right into trend line support so it needs to hold yesterday's low yesterday's low by the way was a 5470 if it doesn't do that then price should make a run back to the 52 77 level I'll pull over my white background chart shortly and show you that that's the TD9 count breakout area so that's a possibility price is now back inside its weekly profile that means it's below 5635 and the price range below that that's a suggestion that it could move back to its trend line which looks like it might be in about the 52-ish type area out there maybe 51 and change now price on a weekly on a monthly basis I should say is above the top of its profile so that looks up bullish so let's pull over the white background charts when Wells Fargo topped it was with a TD9 count top as a matter of fact that was the high from February 9th price never closed above that high that high by the way was 5938 so now we've got a potential TD that's hard to say we only have bar number six so very difficult to say we might have a TD9 count bottom that's forming but what price should do Hector is pull back to its breakout level that's at 52 77 so that's the general area that in that for an entry point out here and ideally what you do is you'd get the Wells Fargo to pull back even test and then reject its January 24 swing point maybe it's just the high of that but so it looks like we're a few days early on a potential bottom signal from its daily time frame so that's the target area 52 77 is there an a to b equal cd to the downside there is so that's another question that Hector had asked so let's pull this it's easier it's the only way I can really draw these in is with the black background chart so in this case here the a point is the high from the trading day of February 10th the b point is the low from February 14th and the c point is a retracement up into February 15th so you can see we're at the 1 to 1.272 level this is why you do not buy just any a to b equal cd or sell any a to b equal cd or if you want to do that go right ahead I just think you'll get something handed to you that you really don't want handed to you instead wait for the cavalry to arrive wait for a bullish reversal candle in an a to b equal cd to the downside and then you'll at least have a logical reason to go ahead and take that trading position we don't have that here so Hector if you did get a bullish reversal candle today then that could be a Gartley buy that would be a Gartley buy plain and simple and then that TD 9 count doesn't likely take place and then you'd have a potential for a bottom but let's take a look at the weekly chart though you know just to make sure that we take into consideration a little bit longer term you did say mid term out here and from a mid term standpoint the weekly has a confirm roadsman to indicator top now and as long price remains below that greenhouse that are in change line 55 91 odds fave that price will eventually make its way back to the 47 51 to 48 77 level out there so you've got different potentially different message from the daily although you don't have that different message right now so it just says you've got to be patient wait let's see how the day plays out so Hector and Patty thanks much for waking up and being the early bird special out here and have a wonderful wednesday we've got Victor on the line victor thanks for calling thanks for holding how are you today yeah i'm looking for pltr i see a lot of volume i don't know if anything's going on they have a lot of shares outstanding i don't know what will ever tighten up the stock they just hate it to me it's the future it's like the next microsoft a uh but what do you see anything going on with that stuff well you know victor we've got the black background charts up here that show us the profiles and for palantir it's just the daily in the weekly that really generate those in prices below both of those levels of support so we'll take a look at my white background chart see if there's anything there but right now the black background charts are saying this wants to come all the way back the fact is trading into its ipo level that takes you back to september of 2020 so that says that uh 894 the low of that swing point could easily be hit out there and that's just looking at the weekly time frame chart so let's take a look at palantir for its the white background charts if there's any kind of bottom signals and the answer is there is not there is a road's momentum indicator signal that's been triggered if price were to claw if we were to get a bullish reversal candle victor then we'd be looking for a move up to 1159 and then your other battles would be 1265 and uh 1355 and 14 bucks but palantir really needs to do to signal a breakout message is close about 14 dollars if it does that then you could see a move to 1857 but right now the daily time frame says no bottom signal the weekly time frame no bottom signal even if i look to just a short term 30 minute chart well i do see a td9 account bottom here which could lead to a little bit of a bounce but that bounce should find resistance of 1119 but back to your basic question do i see anything here we take a look at the longer term time frame charts of daily and weekly we do not so more likely than not this wants to continue to head lower lower low does it help you today's the first day you know you have options expiration on Friday so today normally your delta neutral again Wednesday so i just see this as a bounce and we have lower lows and we get the 20 30 correction like in 2008 or 2009 i don't think this will be over until next march it's possible it might be over this march though so be careful out there what we want to do is simply i think you're going to retouch the 2000 uh when this whole thing started two years ago in March and we had this fake rally i think you're going to touch there easy all right so that's a what do you got it you got what do i think i think i think you're wrong that's what i think you think we're gonna have one more rally well here's here's here's here's what here here's what i think is real possibility i think there's a real possibility victor that we're going to see a significant low uh sometime in the next couple of weeks sometime between now sometime between now and the end of march if that low comes in so let me just let me just make this statement if that low comes in victor we will take out the highs of our market so i would say now now the other possibility is we don't get that low that comes in but everything right now and you've got to take this one step step at a time if the low that i'm looking for and we've got patterns that are suggesting that low and other things if that low does not come if it does come in and that low gets taken out then i could be back into your camp but not until that stage out here you know the one thing victor and everybody else including myself that we always have to take into consideration is the global flow of capital if we just think us centric we're gonna we're not gonna succeed at this game here this game is all connected and we have to think in a much larger term and there's a lot of problems going on around the world we happen to be the reserve currency of the world as we speak right now this is where people will find confidence as as much as you might think the us is screwed up or would have yet this is still where the confidence is at and until that changes when things really go to heck in a handbasket around the globe you know look for people to find safe haven in the us dollar look for people to find safe haven in us centric companies out there so that's those are the things that could really propel this market higher are you wrong and i'm right no that we don't know that just yet but i think that to somehow believe that there's not that possibility that we find some significant bottom that forms here in the coming weeks that's not the gameplay that i'm on that's not the game plan that i'll be looking for so i hope that helps you know you didn't answer a question the million dollar question which is which the low how low do you think we go what happens we get rid of Biden do you think we'll get a low yeah so i you know that as far as how low really i'm more about patterns than i am about you know a specific price point out there so i think i did answer the million dollar question and you know in a couple of months we'll find out so hey viktor good to talk to you thanks much for calling on the complex thank you bet take care see roads with tfnn folks we'll be right back are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio tom o'brien is here to help tom o'brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years a frequent contributor to td ameritrade network and cnbc tom o'brien founded tfnn over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you tom's daily market newsletter market insights is published every morning when the market's open to give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed these newsletters are packed full of tom's advanced technical analysis and are geared to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio get tom o'brien's newsletter market insights today and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk-free with our money back guarantee at tfnn.com tfnn educating investors you could be making money off the stock market and if you're already making money off the stock market you could be making a lot more check out tfnn and tiger tv and get expert investing advice to give you the power to control your financial 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using this first-of-its-kind program the art of timing the trade charts allows you to scan thousands of stocks for fibonacci formation setups including godly's bbc's butterflies and much more the art of timing the trade charts is designed to help you when scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days weeks or even months searching to find and right now we're offering licenses available at only seventy nine dollars a month we are so confident that you're going to love this new charting software that will even give you a 30-day unconditional money back guarantee don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software get your copy of the art of timing the trade charts today by visiting tfnn.com welcome back folks last night i lost a little bit of sleep by and the reason is uh yesterday we had a call from brent in martin is california hopefully brent is up early in the morning uh listening to the show and and i asked him really an unfair question and so at the time i didn't i didn't think it was unfair but that was playing through some things in my my mind but but but after i was replaying the show in my mind yesterday you know that was a thought that came in my mind and the unfair question was i just simply asked him if he thought just looking for people's thoughts and opinions uh whether the uh what what's going on between russian ukraine whether that was likely to turn into is that just a geopolitical event or is this going to turn into something worse something that could drag the u.s. into some kind of war now the reason i asked that question and so now i can clarify it and it's a little bit easier to understand it really is a little bit of a follow-up to uh to victor's thoughts out out here is here is a chart of the s and p 500 with all types of what i'll call geopolitical type events out here and oftentimes people will think some of those events turn into oh jeez the market ought to croak and keep heading uh lower out here you know for example the u.s. would draw from uh the russian nuclear treaty out here back in the uh time frame of august of 2019 that that didn't lead to any kind of crash to the downside so you can see a number of things that are out here uh brexit as example if you go back in the left-hand side i mean all kinds of of events out here and so the next event is where putin's ordered troops to eastern ukraine and we've seen some of the small skirmishes or would have yeah i'm not up on the latest it's taking place over the last 12 hours out here but but the question is if this is just a geopolitical type event out here then you've got to be thinking that as soon as we see that that looks like that's turning that then this all of a sudden ties into this potential for some type of march bottom now if it's not a geopolitical event and this is the reason that i asked the question give me a moment here a slight show current current slide there we go the reason is because if this is a war that the u.s. gets dragged into then the answer is the market heads lower and the market will head lower and forget about the the the uh written stuff out here is for a different presentation so i don't even know if it's specific with regard to what we're talking about today i'm not reading those but i'm just really looking at the chart out here and what i do know is that when at least for going back and take and look at history we know the way that the u.s. stock market responds yeah you see these rallies but in times of war where there's uncertainty or no optimistic outcome market said lower here's the korean war we can take a look at go from the korean war we can take a look at pearl harbour you know you've got a positive outcome that doesn't necessarily identify the bottom but it's going to identify the change in trend so to speak you get the big hamburger maybe versus the bun sometimes you can time it towards the bottom here i hear even a even heart attack by eisenhower out here you can see what the u.s. stock market does no one all of a sudden it believes there's some progress or belief uh you know that that ended up identifying a bottom persian gulf war we can see three different instances it was a third instance that finally uh took hold out there but every time there was a sign of optimism what we saw inside the markets was a uh we've seen it take place in today's markets with today's situations out there we have seen the bounces that have taken place of last several days when there's a sign of optimism out here so it just shows you the relevance of this but the relevance though and the question that i unfairly asked yesterday without really giving this a background out here was is this a geopolitical event or is this something else now we've got both thoughts that came out of the tiger's den some people thinking that it's something else out there which it may be and if it's at something else and it's a war whether we still have to uh that we're somehow pulled into we still have to look for some type of optimistic event out there that is going to uh then help us to identify at least a viable bottom so i don't know which of the two it is now to the folks that think that this is something worse we're headed lower well that could be borne out really just by this chart as well and what i mean by that now this is just looking at closing prices out here so it's not looking at the lows you and i know that the lows of the 24th have not been tested with the exception of the nasdaq 100 i believe the ndx 100 did test and reject the actual uh swing point low out there but here we just take a look at closes we can see on a closing base the s and p 500 closed below the low from the 24th so if we were just basing things on a closing base that's not how we do the a to b equal cd pattern we would draw in a a to b and say we've got a confirmed a to b equal cd whether it's with or without volume we don't really have that at least that because i'm not going to change the way we do a to b equal cd patterns out there but i at least wanted to present this that way i can sleep easy tonight not worry about uh you know uh um uh asking a an unfair question so i apologize for that but now at least you've got the background and understanding of uh of what we're looking at here and i think that this you know that's a fundamental aspect right now of what's going on geopolitically out here and that's why that chart is always fun for me to go back to now we've got a request out here inside the tiger stand i believe was to take a look at sofi i don't recall who asked my apology that's long gone but at least i remembered so let's get back to the three panels where is it here we go three panel chart let's get sofi in here and i don't recall what the question was but we're just going to simply analyze sofi that is sofi technologies which yesterday closed below the bottom of its daily profile and its swing point from january the 28th that's wing point at 78 million shares it was taken out with 77 million shares out there so we're going to say that kind of confirms a further move lower now uh palantir and sofi look very similar don't they price in this case you're headed back to its ipo maybe lower the actual ipo low was 1010 that takes you back in november of 2020 so that's where price looks like it's headed into uh by pull over sofi on the white background chart just look for any kind of signals out here nothing on the well yesterday's closed below it was closed below a hammer candle from january 28th out there so we know if you close below the low of a hammer candle if you're long you're wrong that's the expression that we like to use out here so that's not looking good so no bottom on the daily time frame no signal on the weekly although on a weekly basis this likely will become bar number eight this says you couldn't see a bottom that would take place between this week and then next week or the following week out there you've got a roadsman to indicator signal being triggered here on the monthly time frame that'd be nice if once that confirmed but with regard to sofi it looks like uh you know taken out that low from yesterday the low of a hammer candle no other bottom signal here it does look like it wants to continue to head lower out there so i hope that helps whoever had made that request out and thanks so much for doing so there's a request that has come in from i believe nicholas let me get back here to my phone it is nicholas and nicholas wants to take a look at the smh's so let's punch up the smh's let's get those going on the black background charts and let's read his question good morning steve would you please go over the smh's where's the o u l or his resistance target on a counter trend uh bounce okay so as we take a look at here's what we know about the smh's yesterday they tested and rejected their swing point from january 28 that swing point had 11 million shares you did nine million shares you can't bust them down you try to bust them up so first when we take a look at the daily time frame chart here for the smh's we can see that price is also below its little rising trend line so that's the first level that price needs to to to get above which is about 268 12 where's this trading in the pre-market smh see if it's trading above that level 267 so it's really trading into that resistance level so i know and i'll pull over for you i will pull over the o u l the daily and so forth but that's really your first level of resistance the price can get above that little rising trend line i draw that in if i were you i just simply connect the low from the 28th to the low of the uh 14th out there price can get back above that then it could move all the way to its descending trend line which is in about the 280-ish type area out there you're with inside the bullish structure of its weekly now i take that back 256 370 318 oh no this is a so you are inside a bullish weekly profile out here hey let me answer this question before we go to the break where's red oscillator and changeline on the daily time frame Nicholas it's 267 nine i believe that's where price is trading into sieve roge with tfnn over your eight being fun trading the markets but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with become an apex predator in the trading markets and joined the tiger's den trading room only at tfnn.com the tiger's den is an exclusive trading room where successful traders from around the world come to exchange trades and ideas join the den and surround yourself with these sharpest minds in the trading world subscribers to the tigers then are also the first to have their questions answered live on air and can privately chat with our tfnn hosts live during their shows interact with other tigers and tigers is as they share trading ideas news analysis and discuss the market action all trading day subscribe to the 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can listen to tfnn live on your mobile device 24 hours per day go to tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv that's tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv welcome back folks if you're all listening live which is 842 in the morning thanks so much for joining me here today obviously this would be replayed between one and two trying to make this as pertinent as we can for that time frame so the smh is definitely tested and rejected that swing point from january and suggests to move higher 26790 is the first level of resistance out there i really i'm just going to look at uh for nicholas the intraday charts out here and the reason is uh because it really is trading us from an intraday perspective so the first thing you're looking for is a close above 26747 if you get that we're looking at just a 15-minute chart your next battle is a 26961 above that it's 27294 those would be the levels on a short-term time frame chart where price would target if it can clear those areas those are the td9 count breakdown resistance levels the 30-minute chart formed a nice roads meant to be indicator bottom also form weight number seven that's letter g so you got two bottoms there two bottoms stronger than one bottom not that i know of they're just two bottoms and a price pulled back yesterday into the close and test that red oscillator and change line so it's battles out of 30-minute bases our 26707 26871 27035 and finally 272 51 if you can clear that 272 51 you likely head into the descending trend line on the daily basis which gets us into that two adious range that would be the following td9 count breakdown level out here on a 65 65-minute chart out here uh tried to do that that you got a roads meant to be indicator bottom you close above 266 it says i want to make run for the 276 level out there the 130-minute chart a td9 count bottom so yeah this is uh if you know so this uh thank you nicholas for even asking about this chart here or this instrument i should say and then having us go through these different time frame charts because this is when something tries to make a bottom on a daily basis you then like to go down and take a look at the interday time frame to see if you're getting those signals and folks you can see that we are for each of those different time frames that we track with one exception that being the 195-minute chart i know that's not a normal time frame that people take a look at but when you're trading an instrument they cash instrument they stock out here you've got six and a half hours worth of trading signals you'd like those bars to be equal well there's 295-minute bars in a trading day there's 330-minute chart uh in a trading day there's uh five uh 65-minute charts and so forth so you like to have equal time frames out there so uh i hope that helps you out nicholas and best of luck to you let's go out to gary in michigan gary thanks for calling thanks for holding how are you hey steve great uh i'd love to start my morning with d-roll in the morning so uh listen um i just and i i want to first off say how are you doing i'm doing very well thank you very much for asking out there much appreciated and the 30th treasury of clt uh is what i i believe you're calling about what are you what are you doing as some of the macro stuff i love and you know um and if you so you can take it from a not only a specific trading the clt now but i'd like to see your vision for you know is it as it plays out in the charts in your mind going forward here in the next three to six months possibly well so i would i would answer that question really like like this because i think your question is really suggesting what are we what do we need to see a change in trend to the downside is that or am i misinterpreting no no i'm looking for the rates to go up uh i mean the clt to go up and the uh rates to go down is my so here's a quarterly chart sure okay so rates rates to go up and and bonds to uh fall so if we take a look at the 30 year out here uh this is a quarterly time reverse that steve but anyways whatever it's whatever you want to say but i'm looking for the rates to go down and the bond price to go out okay okay so let's let's take a look at that then that thank you thank you for clarifying so uh to do that here's here's what uh here's on a switch chart so we're going to go right to the white background charts now that support at least that thought process so let's first take a look at it and that thought process really coming from the daily time frame so i'm just going to expand this chart out here whoops and so as we take a look at the daily time frame chart we have a td9 count bottom we have a roadsman to indicator bottom so we got two bottoms out here again two not stronger than one but you've got two bottom signals out here now what price is doing gary it's trading with inside its daily profile so the level of resistance at price needs to take out is 154 17 that's the actual top of the profile i know it says 154.55313 you've got to do the math conversion here on the white background chart unfortunately the folks in the trader so when you do that conversion it's 154 17 if you get it close above 154 17 then that should take price to 156.05 so what i want to share with you is your is your thought process of rates going lower bonds moving higher the daily time frame chart here supports that now further support will come from taking out the resistance levels which has been unable to do as we speak so far any questions gary about about this chart nope i'll have to follow it afterwards on the phone okay perfect so let's uh let's do this let's get off to the daily chart here and let's just see again go to a longer term time frame that would be the weekly chart well if we look at the weekly chart now we have a TD9 count bottom that will be completed this week the reason i say it will be completed is right now the low is on last week's low the TD9 count but you still could get a lower low this week and it still would maintain that pattern now in the case of the weekly chart the price level that would need to be overcome is in about the 154 there's 155 really so price would need to overcome 155 to say okay from that intermediate term time frame you're on the right track now if price closes below like right now i'm going to use last week's low let's assume that that is the low of the TD9 count pattern that low out there is 152 that would then start to say hey maybe the thought process uh that rates are going to go lower and bonds are going to move higher is off the table for the moment does that make sense oh yeah for sure that's what i'm looking for is the timing part get it yeah so you've got a weekly confirmation of a TD9 count you've got the daily signal that you like out there the monthly chart says i don't know what you guys are talking about and the reason why it's saying that is it because right now it's trading below the low of a TD9 count that formed in march of 2021 and if price closes below that low 15307 that suggests gary that price should go ahead to the 13914 area so you really need to see now we don't know how the month will end it's uh i don't know the i know the month then so i don't know when that day is the trading day is um what when is the last trading day of the month you know it's it's what i think it is i think it is monday yeah it's monday out there so on monday gary this will be important to you if you were to get it closed below 15307 and you're 15220 now the bigger picture is saying hey what you're seeing take place in the weekly and the daily is nothing more than a counter trend move and a larger picture is that it wants to move lower so whereas if the TD9 count bottom holds on the daily time for on the monthly time frame then it supports it supports your conclusions at this stage okay cool that's what i need to hear the man i appreciate everything you do well well thanks i appreciate that so uh and thanks much for calling in and listening early so have a have a have a wonderful wednesday and i'm going to be sending this out and i recommend everybody do to get more people listening so hey we we appreciate that we appreciate that thanks so much gary much appreciate it you bet that was gary a new buffalo michigan a real quick check here let me see if there's any other requests that have come in i don't see anything so then where do we go from here oh there was a request inside the tiger's den and i apologize inside the youtube channel to take a look at goldilocks so let's go take a look at gold the question is is gold moving higher moving lower uh let me actually get to my charts out here what i can share with right now as we go into this break is gold is attempting to form a new daily profile where's the charts um here it is sorry about that folks so right now there's new profile it's attempting to form we're using steve's advanced doppler tool you've got supported 1879 40 and resistance at 1908 60 we get back to this great question about the school debt and higher lower from here you're right the reality is that navigating financial markets can be risky markets can be chaotic and difficult to understand having the latest market advice can help you turn this chaos into a key for creating winning trades at tfnn we understand that it can be hard to find reliable market news that's why each of our market experts offers their very own market newsletter a must-have tool for every trader out there striving to find an edge in today's markets tfnn newsletters cover every aspect of the markets so you can analyze the market before you trade try any of our great newsletters risk free with our 30-day money back guarantee just visit the newsletters tab on the front page of tfnn.com tfnn educating investors are you having fun trading the markets but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with become an apex predator in the trading markets and join the 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The Tiger First mortgage program may be just the program for you. The Tiger First mortgage program pays 7% per year, paid monthly. For more information, you can call<PHONE_NUMBER>. That's<PHONE_NUMBER>. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV. Welcome back, folks. We're taking a look at the gold out here, trading right now at 1902. And as we take a look at this, there's a brand new profile that is attempting to form. Now, I say attempting to form. We're using my advanced Doppler tool that detects profiles as they're beginning to form. This will not be confirmed until this evening, this evening at 6.01. But right now, we do know where buyers and sellers are at. And the question was, is gold moving higher or lower? Right now, it's just consolidating with inside its daily profile. So the resistance level that price would need to take out is 190860. If it can do that, that would be an additional signal that price will make its way up to the 1956-40 level. That's its 1-1A to B equal CD to the upside. If price closed below 1879-40, now, all this assumes that the profile takes over. Right now, we know where buyers and sellers are at. If price closed below 1879-40, that suggests that we had lower.  Well, we'd have to go take a look at our other charts to figure all that out. So that's coming from the daily timeframe. And the person in the YouTube channel, I don't know what the timeframe it is that they were really requesting. But right now, you've got a consolidation between support and resistance. Very clear. We took a look at that. So that's helpful. Now, let's go take a look at our granular charts out here. Back to the daily timeframe. You can also see that there is no topping signal. Today is maybe going to farm, maybe going to form bar number six out here. So no topping pad that we have in place. Now, that's different. We take a look at the intraday charts. The five-hour chart, the 300-minute, the two-hour chart, the 120-minute, the 60-minute chart, they've each got roadsmen to indicator tops out there. But price has not busted through any key levels of support. So it's just been kind of a sideways-ish turning move out there. If price were to close below 1894-40 for two consecutive bars, that is the TD9 breakout level on the two-hour chart, then you could look at a moved 1875. If you close below 1890-30 on the five-hour chart, and that's going to take longer to do, that could signal and move back to 1852. The 60-minute chart supported 1892. That's its TD9 breakout level. We can see as there was a bit of a rally this morning, and what price did was to stop right at one of the TD9 breakout levels, 1906-20 out there. So if you ask me right now, intercession, where is price headed to? It's more likely to mean price should pull back to the 1898-1900 level, or 1902. That's just a couple of bucks. Folks, stay tuned. Tommy O'Brien with the Morning Market Kickoff is up next. You're listening at One Live. It's David White. He'll lead you home, and Tom O'Brien will close it up. Take care, folks.


But the night would bring no cooling down for, instead, torrents of fire would sweep the land. August 24th, 1970. Forty-five fires burned in the Wenatchee National Forest in north-central Washington, all touched off by a lightning storm during the night. Forest crews are sent in to circle or attack every fire. With natural lakes abundant in this part of Washington, there is no shortage of water. For Wenatchee officials, these first hours are crucial, for once the sun has had a chance to heat the earth, even the smallest fires can become raging infernos.  The more it takes, the more force it builds from within, and so generates its own winds. Firefighters call it a blow-up. One of the most powerful and uncontrollable forces on the face of the earth, but found a way to control the force of wildfire. A blow-up, the scientists say, is comparable to the explosion of a 20-kiloton bomb. Its temperatures ultimately rise to 3,500 degrees. Its winds can reach the force of a tornado. 33,000 acres have burned. 15 of the initial fires are totally out of control. Each has a different name, linked to a geographical starting point. Gold Ridge, Mitchell Creek, Poison Creek, Puga Mountain, North Tommy and South Tommy, Slide Ridge, and Signal Peak. Yet together, they're part of a single disaster, which officials already call one of the worst in the history of the state. A beleaguered national forest must call for help. Sure and Alaska, firefighters converge in Wenatchee. Full-time foresters, Indian specialists, college and high school students. Ultimately, they will number more than 8,500. Many are weary, for already this year, 13,000 fires have attacked the nation's forests. With amazing swiftness, the quiet enclaves of North Central Washington have been transformed into staging areas. The solitude of a vacation wilderness has been broken. As if in some distant land, some other place on earth, great machines rend the silence, and young men are led against an enemy. Until two days ago, this was a quiet camping ground for summer vacationers. In 48 hours, the Forest Service has turned it into a totally self-sufficient city for 2,000 men. Fire boss Don Peters, a career forester with 35 years' experience fighting fires, was summoned from his home in Oregon to run all operations out of Alta Lake. His first job is to try to organize the massive firefighting effort. Bob Krell, he was here before we came in, and could I assign him to you and have him help you and try to throw you off? All right, well, let's go over now and give a talk to him. Because you're getting barked down with too many details. It's getting too big for one man. On Wednesday, August 26th, the effort to circle the fire is pushed, but under a worsening fall of smoke.  The smoke cannot escape. The air tankers, which are so heavily relied upon for slowing down the progress of fire, cannot fly. The elements have combined to create a smoke screen which the pilots are unable to penetrate. Beneath the smoke, the fire will continue to move unchecked through the night. Thursday, August 27th, the weather this day, a crazy conspiracy that baffles and frustrates the firefighters. Winds gust up to 40 miles an hour, yet the sickening gray-brown smoke hangs thick, almost obliterating the sun.  Fire suppression costs are averaging half a million dollars a day. Mobilization of the firefighting army is almost complete. Thousands of men are out on the lines, but their efforts are futile against the driving winds. 58,000 acres of timber have burned, nearly 6 million trees. Now many of the smaller fires have run together, and three massive burns pose the greatest threat. Mitchell Creek, Gold Ridge, and Antioch. I'd like to bring you up to date on what we've got. Last night, we were a little bit optimistic on what we were going to get, but the public information that we're getting shows that on Mitchell Creek, here the fire has bulged out, it's gone across Great Creek here. It's giving us a little trouble. We're having a little trouble here. Now, on the rest of the fires, things have changed and changed in a hurry. Gold Ridge, which you may have heard about earlier, and this is as of 1500, 3 o'clock, has broken out of the lines, is going towards the west, towards the town of Hardenbore. The fire is visible on the ridges above Hardenbore, and the people are packing to pull out. Scattered along a narrow winding road, some 50 homes comprise the isolated lumber town of Hardenbore. The name means the place to see the forest. This fire moves slowly down the slopes of the valley toward Hardenbore's homes and the lumber mill where most of its residents work. Ultimate responsibility for stopping it rests with one man, Fire Boss, Ralph McCurdy. We can see it from here. We've got another spot even further down now. We may be a day late in the dollar short on that one. Up as drop 400 gallons of water, the effect is like isolated drain drops. The fire is too widespread. Visibility remains bad, and throughout the day, bomber drops are too high and too infrequent to be effective. 100 men have arrived at a base camp set up in Hardenbore's lumber mill. None will rest until the battle is decided. Everything is improvised. The milling pond becomes a helicopter water hole. Pretty much moving the other direction towards the west, but right now we're just in a state of flux and we don't really have any good comment. The Civil Defense did ask that residents in this area water down their houses. Does this mean there's a real danger of this fire coming over the hill? As of right now we don't expect it to come over. Weather conditions get severe enough anything can happen. By 4 p.m., the fire is within 200 yards of some homes, and neighbors join in a desperate primitive effort to save those in most immediate danger. Man can do as any effect. The creeping fire maintains its steady pace, burning through the thick undergrowth and gnawing at the roots of trees. Ultimately, heat becomes too intense for the firefighters, and at many places along the Hardenbore Road, they'll be forced to back away. 4 p.m., with no relief in sight, some residents prepare to evacuate their homes. Mrs. Goldman, what are you feeling right about now? I'm scared to death. I feel pretty good because all my friends are here helping me. But it isn't very good to watch them go up and she works the heart for them. Are you taking out of the house personally, everything? Just personal belongings, anything that I can't replace.  Clothes. You have other people helping you also? Yeah. My sister came up from Oregon to help me. What are the children doing? Well, my two little girls, I shipped to an auntie Monday night when this all started because they got scared right off the bat, because they know what it can do. 5 p.m., gusty winds shoot flames into the treetops. Now, no one can predict how quickly and in what direction the fire will run. Trying to hold a line above Adenbor must be pulled back into town. As the fire picks up speed, anxiety grows for men still on the lines. The Adenbor Road is their only way out.  No, it hasn't jumped mad yet because the mad river goes up this way, but there's nothing going to stop it, I don't think. The way these winds are right now, she's going right up that bridge just to see if that's going to go. 5.35. For one crew above the town, the pullback seems merely the routine ending of another long day. But unknown to them, fire has jumped the road ahead, generating heat and smoke on both sides. They start out totally unaware that for the next 90 seconds, they will run a choking gauntlet of smoke and flame. By six o'clock, all the men have been pulled back to safety. But high winds are blowing sparks and burning branches across the valley. The outlook is grim. A summer cabin at the edge of town disappears within minutes, apparently touched off by a spark landing on the roof. Local firemen had watered it down less than half an hour before. The residents have decided to stay. They watch the approaching fire quietly for a state of shock disbelief. Facing the strong possibility of total disaster, forest service officials reach a desperate decision. For watered down line behind the road homes, a backfire is started. Its purpose is to burn uphill to the oncoming fire and deny it further fuel. A risky procedure, but there is no acceptable alternative. The officials are certain the backfire will succeed, but the townspeople and firefighters are like. There is no sense of victory this night. In the backfire alone, 150,000 trees will die, many of them two to 300 years old. The entire valley has been raped by fire. Its natural beauty destroyed for at least a generation to come. As the firefighters still rage far through, professional crews, so-called hot-shot teams, are sent into critical areas. These men come from Redding, California and are led by 34-year-old Charlie Caldwell. We've been on a total of 16 fires this summer prior to the Mitchell Creek fire itself. Naturally, the guys, it's hard on them. As a hot-shot crew, they do get some of the toughest and longest shifts on the fire line. This is what they're trained for and we realize ahead of time that we're going to be put in these positions. Our among the proudest firefighting crews in the country, and while sometimes called upon to perform heroic tasks, their worth is often proved in more obscure and inaccessible reaches of the forest. Here they cut fire line with cool, relentless skill from dawn to dusk day after day. Because of their training, men like these are rarely caught unaware by fire. Yet, even they must pay a price. The end of each season leaves their lungs cruelly contaminated by dust and smoke. Charlie Caldwell has already been warned by doctors he must quit soon or face permanent damage. For others in his crew, fate will play even more cruelly. Within a few weeks, two of his men will die in an air crash while fighting fires in Southern California. More than 70 bulldozers are at work battering out fire lines at the rate of half a mile every hour. And by now, thousands of men are laboring on the line. Some are drawn by a sense of adventure. Others feel impelled to defend land and forest gear to them. And many are here simply because with overtime, a man can earn as much as three to four hundred dollars a week. When did you guys first hear about the fire? Monday. We were on a small fire in our district and heard we'd probably leave in that night so we just got ready and left. When did you get out to this baseball? I think Wednesday. We were in Wenatchee for a day. Why are you fighting fires? For the money. Also, there's a little grammar in it. Not a whole lot. It's just sort of dirty, mean-run business once you get right down to it. The working day grows longer, sometimes sixteen hours and more. Smoke, heat and exhaustion take their toll. Minor injuries are more frequent. The chance of tragedy increases. This fatigue saps alertness and caution. So by the morning of August 28th, the Forest Service needs reinforcements and has issued a call for volunteers. Six miles west of Ardenbor, a volunteer group comes on the lines. A few regulars are among them, but most are youngsters, untried and untrained. They had come to the Ranger office in Leavenworth, Washington and asked to fight fire. Their crew boss is well aware that he alone must assure their safety.  So let's keep our guys together and don't let anyone warn and off someplace. If somebody gets sick, take care of them because you could get your butt burnt. How far in do you want to go? Yeah, I'll go out about 20, 30, 40 feet and get her going good because we've got suction from the other way now. If we take advantage of it, it might make it worse. Turn this way. We aren't going this way. No, drop on the other side. I'll see you to get back. If you need anything hard on your radio, I'll be on the radio down here. Head up there, you guys. Normally, John Segal would command but the situation is far from normal and Chance has given Segal an unexpected opportunity. A steady wind now blows from the west. He may be able to backfire here and hold this line. Get with Frank and... Don't take... You're not going with him. Okay, tell me how. John, I'll leave the radio. You better take it. We might have to get John in there. Why, you're coming down this way though. Okay. Don't see my name.    They got a little somebody that knows what they're doing with them. And they learned the next year they come back, they did it twice as good, I've had the same crew and I've got over 11 work now for about four years. And as they graduate, we'll pick up another one and he'll go all the way to school. But the second year, he's real good. He can get a lot of work out of it. A lot of know-how. But the first year, it's really rough. Within 15 minutes, the backfire surges to meet the major blaze, cutting off its possible line of advance. Wind conditions remain ideal. We started from the creek and came straight out just different, faster than you know. Wind was just perfect. How fast can you go? How fast can I go? If you've been to the fire station here or not. Well, we came up in about 15 minutes. Is this a summer job? Summer job, I'm a speech therapist. I'm going to be, I'm a senior next year. Central, unfortunately, state college. Not everything's working good. So far, we've got about an hour yet. I've got our board getting some smoke now. Well, look at the head on that thing. You cut one of them trees right there and you'd probably con it about 180 years, wouldn't you? That took 200 years to build that thing and grow them trees. Now we're burning up an hour and a half. 32 miles away, then-boss Bob Boston surveys a disastrous new breakdown. Fire has suddenly swept into black canyon, a part of the forest that burned only 41 years ago. The new growth of prime young timber below has not even reached maturity. Boston will return with a grim report. He went down to... Did it? No, I haven't. We've got two, two old fighters. Biosault, Biosault. David's on, David's on back end. No. We've got a whole new world coming up. Way out there. Way out there. There's fire right now. We're out to this ridge. Good grief. We're getting down to that Medhau Valley, where this means farms and ranchers and orchards and fruits and cattle and everything else, right? Private property, private homes. We're concerned in here, too. This morning was some of the fire behavior specialists, and we've got a loop on this end line and this opening here, and if we do get the dog-gone thing tied together, we're gonna have to burn here under favorable conditions and burn in a little at a time to make that line safe. An all-out effort is made to check the black canyon blaze. Around 3.30 p.m., men and machines are ordered back. In the following hours, 400,000 trees will be engulfed in flame and die. Battlefield defeat. When a forest dies, one man must be responsible and weigh the cost.  Don, how do you feel when you see fire go over a forest like this?  It's hard to say. I've been doing it a long time, but my whole career has been in forestry and we want to raise the trees and use them. When they burn up, nobody likes to see trees or greenery burn. And the worst part of it is you're concerned about men that are off in there, too. I mean for safety. Maybe that's not the worst part of it, but that's one of our big concerns because we've got to know where our men are and we've got to be prepared and everybody has to be trained and they have to follow orders. Well, I'll see you guys. Monday, August 31st. The fires are eight days old.  They must turn over every burning log, every inch of soil for smoldering embers, a single spark carried by the wind could ignite another holocaust. Mopping up is regarded by firefighters as perhaps the dirtiest and least desirable assignment on a fire. Yet none argues its necessity, for a burned-out forest is not easily forgotten. 10 a.m. at Alder Lake Base Camp, Don Peters and his aides exude confidence for the first time since the fires began. They've had a break in the weather. The skies over the Mitchell Creek fire are clear. Reports from the field tell of a massive assault by the bombers. Though with some hesitation, Peters even talks of containment. We were in trouble and I said, well, we got that to our knowledge. And I said, if it runs out at the end of it, we're in trouble and if not, maybe it's a long way to live with it. As the big air tankers hit one hot spot after another, converted from their original use in another kind of war, they're flown by pilots who must risk their lives every day during a fire. Under attacks, small spotter planes often lead them in. The chemical they release is a fertilizer which clings to the trees and slows down the progress of fire. It has died red so the pilots can see where they've made their last drop. In the ground, we'll try to close the line before. With greater protection now, the bulldozers make tremendous headway in carving line around the fire. In some cases, more than 50 yards wide, it is the beginning and ending irony of firefighting that to save the forest, you must destroy part of it. P.N. Nearly 60 miles of line, representing many long hours and days in the fire, are complete. The Mitchell Creek fire is surrounded. It's brought to Don Peters at Alderley, at the fires wherever wildfire has come. What remains is only ruin. The forest, primeval, virgin, silent, is now dead. It costs $13 million just to fight the fires. It will cost millions more to try to bring the forest back. But there is no true measuring of what has happened here. Only the sight of 118,000 acres of life now gone. Don Peters has spent a lifetime in the forests. In many respects, he has lived the life that Emerson and Thoreau described for all mankind. In nature, he has sought tranquility. In living things, he has found beauty. In the trees, he has seen the qualities of all living beings. And so, the sense of loss cuts deep. In the scorched remnants of the soil, can be read the story of a thousand years of growth, decimated within seconds. Animals in a wildfire are often burned beyond recognition. Some are caught in the terrible struggle to get away. This tiny squirrel apparently buried his head at that moment when he sensed he could not escape. What is left to Don Peters now at the fight out of his career is only a sense of sorrow, the knowledge of what a poet said nearly 2,000 years ago, that a forest is a long time growing. I hurt inside. I really feel badly because I'm 58 years old now and this area will not come back to where it was in my lifetime. There are just not that many years left that I have to live.