Well, good morning everybody You know me already because I did the introduction of the first stage I'm of course very nervous today because I have my daughter with me Victoria and It's the first time I give her lessons in public. So you can imagine Okay, I would like to Present to you a pilot project, which means comprehensive quality management under semantics in the wiki which I presented in Vienna But this time I would like also to let you a little bit have a few of what is inside The machine if we can come to it What the agenda is I would simply Make a short introduction of the European Space Agency. I'm working for over 30 years now What is a quality management and a quality management system another short introduction and then What is this pilot project with comprehensive quality management under semantic media wiki? well The European Space Agency as you know has over 50 years of experience. It has 22 member states now imagine NASA There's one organization the US and has two Parties here they are 22 Who have to say because they are 22 volts independent from the money they are giving We have eight sites and facilities and there are 2,300 stuff and this is constant over the 50 years more or less 2000 stuff. There are 4,000 contractor more or less, but the actual stuff of the agency is only 2,300 The budget is 5.75 billion euros I Think it's more or less the same Conversion radius 0.8 or something to dollar And we have over 80 satellites design tested and operated in flight Well, what is the purpose or mission of ESA? It is to provide for and promote for exclusively peaceful purposes cooperation among European states in space research and technology and their space application okay, who are the 22 member states Because we have also two which are outside the European Union and the European Union is a third party project which we have with the agency, so There are seven other States out of the European Union which has cooperation agreement with ESA Bulgarian Cyprus Malta etc Slovenia is a associated member and Canada takes Part in some programs and they along long-standing cooperation agreement What are the activities you see we have? Something like 1212 and I think ESA is one of the few space agency in the world to combine Responsibility nearly all area of space activities. You see we have human space flight exploration earth observation launches navigation operation technology telecommunication now space science is a special case because space Science is a mandatory program all the rest all the other ones are optional program mandatory program means that the members this have to contribute according to the GNP and They have to contribute to the science budget All the other programs are optional. So this means Austria can decide to have a project with this in launchers or In operation or in telecommunication or whatever So I can decide Where I want to participate This is the budget of 2017 as I said Here's the distribution of who is contributing what amount of money and The EU is contributing here third party programs So we receive something like 1.7 million euros from the EU and The main contributors to ESA is France Germany Italy Belgium Spain I think are the top five UK of course, sorry For what it is used the money Well, you see earth observation 27% the biggest chunk navigation, you know Galileo satellites in Collaboration of its GPS launchers human space flight ESA is operated in 10 directorates We have one director general and then we have 10 directorates. This is important because When I come to quality which I'm coming now You will see that each directorate has to has is QMS certification and then we are trying to have only one Certification and all the directorates have had their ISO certification. Okay, if you want to know more about either there's a place to go Www ease a dot int Open Quality management There's definition in Wikipedia, of course, so I don't have to repeat it here Now why quality management at ESA These things started something like in 2000 one one 99 or were People said how can we prove that either is useful to the European population and there was one Establishment ESA the operation center where they provide services and they said, ah, okay. Let's try to certify ESA For ISO 9001 2005 at the 2000 at the time and see if they could certify and Can then show that they are customer oriented and have all these controls and requirements met And this is actually when I started with quality in in 2000 At the time I was project controller for the XMM Mission but I Came down from Germany to Paris and I was in management support So I didn't do anything about quality management, but in 2008 There was this idea that the ESA as a whole should get an ISO 9001 certification in quality management and See how this is working So there was a long discussion. I Of course used a media wiki for keeping track of the meeting so the minutes of meetings and the reviews, etc and In 2008 the directorate of It was rest at that time said well who has experienced this quality management Quality systems, whatever and I said well, I was trained as an auditor in 2000 When we certified ESA going to say, ah, you are the new quality manager of the directorate. Here you go Okay, so what is quality and quality management systems? I have Put it down into elements for me, of course persons are always the most important thing. So therefore I put it first There are persons customer, of course main quality management principles Stakeholder and QMP is quality management principle So customer focus leaders manager staff And there's a quality management principle of leadership. There's a quality management of involvement of people Communication to people etc internal external providers which are supplier contractors But they are called now internal or external providers in the new ISO standard here You have to have relationship management Then you have to have a purpose and objectives a quality policy Which guides the behavior and decision-making and here you have the principle evidence-based decision-making among other Then you have the processes and you have the quality management principles process approach Which defines roles and responsibility for the delivering of product and services And then you have documented information This means all documents Procedures which are documented processes The procedure produce records Which are you know vital records of the agency important records of the agency And again risks These are all evidence-based decision-making support things and of course the requirements of the international standard When you fulfill the requirements of ISO 9001 2015 You get a certificate So you have to go Anybody of you know how many requirements are in 2001? Sorry ISO 9001 approximately how many requirements one has to fulfill Well, I have not counted it the news one, but in the old one the 2008 one there were 263 So and I think it's more or less the same 2200 250 requirements you have to fulfill Okay, as I said seven quality management principles and for me of course I Like to tell the people was what principles are I like to quote Stephen Covey correct principles do not change Principles don't react to anything principles. Don't die principles are deep fundamental truths classic truths generic common denominated and Principles are bigger than people what circumstances and thousand years so there only quality management principles Principle which I didn't mention was improvements and One of the important thing for a quality management system is of course improvement. Why improvement? Well, we are living in a Changing world right So we have to adopt two changes To new policies to new customers, etc. So improvement is Continual improvement is an important here. I just put What is a process approach, but I'm not going to go into that I Just want to map The ESA process map ESA as an organization. This is One of the possible process map which looks actually quite simple Surprisingly It was agreed by all ten directorates. So it really is a representation of these are processes But of course if you have a scientist through a process map of ESA It would look completely different from the one in finance or for the one in procurement or for the one in legal for that matter Here I'm in the Industrial policy and legal directorate and we are providing Procurement services human resources financial services legal services That's a lot. Okay. Here. We are coming now to the point where I Have problems in selling Media Vicky and Sematic Media Vicky, which is the control of documented information and of course I want the procedure this means the documented process of a Of a process put in a procedure and have it there But here it says you have to control distribution access retrieval stores and preservation control of changes retention and disposition The same is true for records by the way Then the other good thing is that the new standard is now mentioning knowledge management. It actually requires the Organization shell you see it's a requirement shell Determined the knowledge necessary for the operation of its processes into a chief compartment, but it also shall maintain The current knowledge and determine how to acquire into excess any necessary additional knowledge So here we have media Vicky as a perfect tool to support that now here I show you The comprehensive quality management under the semantic media Vicky I'm good in time as I say to repeat the person's process is documented information is used what I'm missing you remember in the in the other slide is the policies and Objectives But Ben has explained about policies so we could actually implement it also in the but it is like in this SharePoint graveyard of PDF documents. We have all the admins and rules and policies and regulations in a SharePoint PDF graveyard Okay, the processes Have purposes customer product and services performance measurements tasks a political document. These are all the rules and regulations Records a process owner and the process manager The process owner is normally the director the process manager is responsible for the day-to-day operations of the process Then you have document information the procedure, which are the documented information of the of the processes The applicable documents again the app registration rules and regulations, etc key performance indicator Records which these processes produce the audience which we do on the processes the management review Which is a requirement in ISO 9001 the DCRs. These are the document change requests And the risks etc Now risks I have not yet implemented in semantic media Vicky all the rest is except also the key PIs I Just have them but I don't really manage them. I would I Would I was wondering is there anybody in the audience who? Does risk management be semi to be Vicky? Okay. Okay. Thank you very good. Yeah, because I was wondering should I also put in a Okay, I can good Okay, let's let's go to a handout now. I don't know how I'm going to do that because I want to go out of the presentation and See if I can start the web browser So, how do I move this? Okay, okay It's a little bit too small, but okay, I will I will try This is the the thing I was talking about Aha, how can I move this? These are all the issues which you have in a quality management system Possible you have actions you have complaints from the customer or users you have document change request You have deviations your feedbacks your improvements Non-conformance is observation and you have also deviation permits I will not go into that because I will take too much time Of course this table Now I Yes, I Will show you this table is of course if I add it here is of course Climatic with a wiki Q-Way, okay Okay, so if I go for example into Document change requests Let me go in here Then you see a typical example On hold critical issue is industrial policy monitoring and report An email was raised and it is also efficient so you can go to the other Non-conformancy and then you see What has been done here It is actually coming out of an surveillance audit report and there's another document change request If you go to this document change request, this is now a special form, but it's all Sematic where they became in the background So you have a document change request and this is in reality This is a word document which people have to fill in in order to raise a Document change request to the procedure Okay, and it has to go to the control board You'll see and it will the proposed changes. What is the justification and then what is the disposition of the board And it says finally accepted by the ESA IMS Well actually I have to explain this IMS was the ISO management system, but it was of course pointing towards the Integrated management system because we have not only the ISO 9000 standard, but we have also the ISO 1400 standard for environment This so the various standards and we were aiming to have an integrated management system together, but We are far from it currently, but okay, you can go here now and You see the minutes of of what has happened there So you see You are completely interlinked with all the information necessary and this is what the people were saying are this is This is necessary because if I need to change And look up why this document change request has Been raised. I need to know Which board it has been approved? Etc. Etc. Etc. Etc. Now here again, you can go to the Procedure and it will tell you that this procedure has been outdated, but this is again semantic medieval As I said before you have the reference is you did security marking author distribution status Last approved by the URL to the SharePoint site, so I Played the game along of course the project URL and then the wiki page and this is the wiki page of the process Okay And here you as I said before the process owner the process manager the customer the purpose So this system is capable of telling management and also the user staff Okay, who is the owner of? I mean the director of of IPL Who he owns what procedures or what processes does he own? What applicable documents? Are needed and of course these are the Admin and rules of regulations, etc. Which are PDF document in the SharePoint graveyards Still perhaps we can convince them that they might as been showed it is possible to put them into Into a media wiki and again you can have the flowchart task table and The records which is automatically generative Okay For example if I go Into this record here it tells you all about Records are prime holder status if it's a vital record. No, it's a legal. It's a vital record. Oh, Jesus vital record Authentication format location Distribution access applicable rules Retention periods we were mentioning that Final disposition and the procedure it is generated by Etc. Now the other important feature but what of course I love and which of course in the other Okay, in the other wikis Is not there Is the thing what links here in the SharePoint wiki you don't have this feature in the IBM wiki you don't have this feature and it is so important Because it tells you where this page is referenced and then you see that this record We have published in the IPL record schedule in 2014 in 15 In the IMS missing records in the IPL document management plan in the IPL record scale of 2017 and I want to show you because this Is of course a website which is trying to represent a Microsoft Word document, which is the how you see the the Communication department says this is the loyalty of the enterprise or no, how you say that the uniform image of the enterprise we should keep I Don't remember now, but okay It has to have the logos of ESA and the word comes from And it says record schedule. This is already again semantic with a wiki and All the necessary Document attributes which it has to have then and the approval The change records and then you have again a simple ask question. Okay, I go up and go into a edit Here and you see when you look at the This comes out of of course when you ease a document and then played This comes out when you you know all these these things I have not typed in this is when you load a word documents into Libre office and exported as media wiki text Okay, so all this fancy stuff comes from there but I want to show you that for example for the Vital record it is really not a cut and paste. It is really an ask statement If I come to that You see I mean what can be more consistent than that? Yeah There is no cut and paste there is simply and Ask a query to the database and it takes out all the records and if you have now these records in a media wiki Where everybody can check and see What is true and what is not true? What is correct? What is not correct? And then you just run rerun this you make a refresh and you have it in your document And it is even in a document with the same layout as Microsoft words with the logos and Company image and what and it's funny because my director accepted that and he signed the record schedules and You see very easy All records generated by thing You see traffic or is a records IPL is the owner etc I Am running out of time I will stop here, but if you have any other questions just ask Thank you. Just out of curiosity when you got certified and did you show the auditor the wiki? Very good question. Thank you because we were certified in 2015 2015 the first time and actually in the audit report and I can't show you this audit report But in the audit report one of the positive Observation was that we are using a semantic media wiki for the control of issues and anything It did similar experience in 2011 and our auditor I think was Lloyd's And they they made very positive notes about the use of a wiki for knowledge management It did any other question. I mean I'm I'm this is the subset of the administration area QMS, but for example the records are the records of all All the procedure in the agency. Okay. Thank you


Good afternoon and welcome to CMC Markets on Friday the 2nd of November and this month's non-farm payrolls webinar with me, Michael Houston. Before I get started I have to put up the traditional disclaimer. I'm hoping everyone can see and hear me loud, well not necessarily see me but see my screen and hear me loud and clear. We got a lot to get through given the volatility that we've seen in the market since the last time I did one of these, certainly been in an eventful month and if you haven't got whiplash from all the market moves that we've seen over the course of the past month or so then well done to you because it's certainly been one of those months where it's been particularly difficult to really glean where the base might be in. But we do appear, I think we do appear to be finding some evidence that maybe there is a short term base in the market and I think within that context I think it's good to look at the S&P 500 because ultimately as we look ahead to the payrolls numbers which are due out in around about 15 minutes I think the big question is not only has the dollar uptrend that we've seen take place over the course of the past few weeks has it come to an end and if so does it then precipitate a potential rebound in stock markets because certainly what I've seen over the past couple of days would appear to suggest that maybe we could well be on the cusp of a bit of a reversal in the dollar index and why do I say that well look at this chart here now those of you who are regular listeners to my webinars will know I'm very big on candlestick charts and reversal patterns and potential reversal patterns and indications of a potential turnaround in sentiment and what we got earlier this week here was a very big down move in the dollar not only did we take out the lows of Monday and Tuesday but we took out the lows of Thursday and Friday of last week as well and here we are today on the Friday pretty much back at levels we were at the beginning of the previous week so that suggests to me the market is very much one way in terms of dollar longs and we've certainly seen that reflected in the way the Chinese one has reacted over the course of the past couple of days as well we've seen a big decline in that which suggests to me that ultimately risk aversion or the risk aversion that we've seen over the course of the past few weeks maybe starting to stabilize and investors are starting to become a little bit more confident that we've seen a short-term base in the equity market it's very important I think for me when I look at these markets to try and look at the correlation between the two so we've been seen a big sell-off in the dollar what we haven't seen and this does make me a little bit concerned is that we haven't seen a softening in US yields and this is where my theory could come unstuck and obviously that's something that I do need to be very aware of that being said we haven't gone back to the highs that we saw at the beginning of October and that's a really big level for me those of you who tuned in in October will know that I I indicated that the 325 area was a very big level for US Treasury yields and why is that because it's the 200 month moving average that's a huge barrier in terms of technical indicators we haven't been above or close to above the 200 month moving average on the 10-year Treasury since 1989 that's a long time ago so it's unlikely that we're going to push through it on the first month on the first bounce so in the short to medium term I would suggest that there's a decent top in and around where we currently are with respect to US yields which would then obviously beg the question does that mean that we can potentially going to see further upside in the US dollar and certainly given the given a sharp decline that we saw yesterday I'm minded to think that maybe we've seen a short-term peak in the US dollar as well so what does that mean going forward well it would suggest that it means in terms of the data that it's going to take a massive beat for us to really push higher in terms of rate US rate hike expectations because at the moment I don't think there's any doubt that we're going to get a Federal Reserve rate rise in December that's not up for debate what's up for debate currently is whether or not we get three Fed rate rises in 2019 or four and it's open to question as to whether or not it we even get three because certainly I think if you look at the data the data does support another rate rise and certainly if you look at the ISM numbers on manufacturing earlier this week it still remained fairly decent a fairly decent number but it did display a little bit of softness in the new orders number as well as the employment component now there was an awful lot of optimism at the beginning of last month that the September payrolls number would be a strong number in the region of around about 200,000 in the same way that the ADP payrolls report was in any event we came in at 134 this number here we also saw a little bit of softness in wages which dropped from 2.9 to 2.8 percent and as such that prompted a little bit of dollar weakness but not a massive amount of dollar weakness because ultimately after that subsequently to that we then pushed higher despite the fact that wages were at the lower end of expectations and the payrolls number was poor but there were hurricane effects in terms of the payrolls numbers so what I'm going to be watching for today ladies and gentlemen is an upward revision to the September number do we get one of them because certainly the September ISM numbers were particularly strong and that's why I think there was such a disappointment around the 134k number that we saw in September the employment components for ISM for September showed fairly strong employment growth and fairly strong economic activity yet that wasn't reflected in the payrolls numbers so be very aware that we could see in either a rebound in the October payrolls numbers where we've got an estimate of 190 to 200 that could come in higher given the strong ADP number or we could see another poor reading or we could see an upward revision to September and the number pretty much in line with consensus for October at the moment it's a little bit of a lottery when it comes to economic consensus and I generally don't tend to set a great deal of store by it what I do set a great deal of store by is whether or not the market beats the consensus because that generally tends to precipitate a significant market reaction so the number I'm looking at is this one here is the average earnings number here which is going to be the 3% level 3% level if we if we get an increase to 3.1% in wages on an annualized basis that will be the best number this decade it'll be the highest number since 2009 and will obviously prompt a significant rebound in the dollar but what a what a you know this needs to be tempered in the context of what does it mean for what the Fed does in 2019 and for that I'm not 100% certain because I think and there's an awful lot already priced into next year already in US Treasury yields and there's an awful lot already priced in with respect to the US dollar as well so the key level that I'm looking for on the S&P 500 for this number is the 200 day moving average we've rebounded quite strongly off this trend line support here from the 2016 lows that acted quite nicely as a decent area of support on the move down this being a weekly chart we've seen a decent rebound so we've pretty much reversed all of last week's losses which in itself could be fairly a decent bullish indicator on the other hand if we're not able to push through this level here and my resistance level for the S&P is 2765 2770 I would be surprised to get a number that pushes us back through there this week that could happen we certainly posted a bullish daily reversal here which would appear to suggest that we're on course for the fourth successive daily close higher daily close on US markets this week and as such could see us push higher so what I did earlier those of you who are watching is I put some Fibonacci retracement levels on this particular chart so between the 200 day moving average and here 50% retracement I think there's going to be a decent barrier between 65 and 70 on the S&P 500 which would suggest that ultimately the upside is likely to remain limited simply because an awful lot of this rally is predicated on Donald Trump's assertion that he does want to trade deal with China now whether or not that's true after the midterms is another matter some of those cynics out there might think that he's only saying that to get the stock market up just before the voters come out on Tuesday next week and that could well be behind his thinking but that would also preclude the fact that he said that last night and we've already bounced three days in a row prior to him saying that so we were already on the cusp of a rebound he's just given it a little bit of a helping hand if we look at the FTSE 100 we've also running into a decent area of resistance just above 30 days highs around about 7,200 if we look at these series of lows through here any move higher is likely to run into resistance there so keep an eye on that and also with respect to the DAX looking at a significant area of resistance just above this 11,700 area on this move higher here so we've got a decent rebound we've seen a bit of short covering this week the big question is whether we get any more let's quickly look at euro dollar a bullish reversal on euro dollar would appear to suggest that we could get see further gains there but once again there's a significant area of resistance through these lows here which currently come in around about one 14 65 70 so we might find some selling interest on any dollar weakness around about one 14 65 70 looking at cable very very quickly seen a significant pull back on there but running into resistance through there before I finish up I better do dollar CAD because it's a Canadian jobs report as well and what we've seen on dollar CAD has been quite significant I've highlighted it here with a little green circle we've seen a bearish reversal on dollar CAD which would appear to suggest that we could be on the cusp of dollar weakness in Canada's strength but we are approaching a trend line support from the lows that we saw at the beginning of October which I've drawn in here so keep an eye on the Canadian jobs report expecting a fairly a fairly modest gain of 20,000 new jobs on the Canadian jobs report well I've got 10 on here and I've got 20 on my Bloomberg so it really depends on who uses your benchmark but 63,000 on the previous number which was a fairly decent number we've come off the back of a rate rise from the Bank of Canada but if we look at the Canadian jobs numbers of those 63,000 most of them when you part-time jobs which might suggest that the Canadian economy is also approaching full employment and as such could see an uptick in wage pressure and further can a Canadian dollar strength so we'll finish up before the numbers because we've got one minute and 45 seconds with dollar yen because the dollar yen is usually a decent arbiter of dollar strength or weakness and at the moment we are finding some decent support at significantly higher levels we bounced off Orochimoku cloud here even though we broke below the trend line here we found support around the cloud and I tend to use the cloud when I'm using dolly yen because generally it tends to be fairly reliable and certainly in the context of this move higher it is but it does appear to be showing signs of a little bit of exhaustion in the short to medium term so certainly looking at today's high it's 113.10 for me what I want to see on a strong dollar number and move through 113.20 to really kick on and push higher and at the moment it doesn't appear to be it appears to be struggling to gain gain strength given it hasn't been able to take out the highs here and here which is around about 113.20 113.30 so what am I looking for well in terms of wages I think wages will drive this if we don't hit expectations of 3.1% then I think the dollar weakness that we've seen over the course of the past couple of days could well become exacerbated if we see a 3.2 we will probably see a spike in the US dollar a push higher but I don't think that we'll see a retest of the highs that we saw of earlier this week I think the dollar up move is done in the short term and we're probably going to consolidate around these sorts of levels into the weekend simply because it's been a very choppy week and that's what I would do so 11.2 Canadian jobs report 3.1 average earnings as expected 250,000 new jobs on the US payrolls unemployment unchanged the revision to the September number was a slight downward revision so we've had a significant rebound in US payrolls which is not unexpected given the week number that we saw in September so by and large it's still a fairly decent number if you average it over a two month period it still comes in at around about that to that 200,000 level it's certainly not out of the ballpark in terms of the overall the overall consensus and if we look at dollar yen it's generally positive but again I don't really think it's got the momentum to take out the highs that we've seen earlier today we may get a retest of those highs but in the overall scheme of things in terms of the reversal that we've seen in the dollar over the course of the past few days I don't think it's strong enough the numbers are strong enough to really signal a turnaround in that certainly positive in terms of equity markets most definitely so the US economy is still performing fairly well and as such we'll probably see a little bit of a tick higher in US Treasury yields if I just look at my Bloomberg terminal you can see that there we've ticked higher from around about 316 to 317 so certainly keeps the keeps the rate rise bandwagon rolling on but certainly in the context of the overall numbers by and large they're a pretty decent set of numbers but they're certainly not blowing the doors off in terms of what the market was expecting when averaged over a two month period so if we look at we go back and look at dollar CAD and the effect that those Canadian jobs numbers have had on the Canadian dollar we can see that it's been slightly weaker but again nothing to really change the overall tone of the overall direction of the market and the fact that we're probably going to likely see a further dollar weakness over the course of the next week or so if we look at the Chinese Remnambi we can see that born out here we weren't able to take out the previous highs of a couple of years ago last year around about 698 so we could potentially got a little bit of a double double resistance up there it's not a double top a double top happens when the tops are very close together you've got double resistance up there you've seen a significant reversal back and it looks like we're probably going to retest the lows on the lows that we saw at the end of August assuming of course that the trade rhetoric continues to get dialed back by the US administration and I would suggest that the rhetoric will remain fairly, fairly mild this side of next week's midterms so anyone has any questions while I'm talking please feel free to fire them over quite happy to look at the market that you have a particular interest in that I haven't covered already but certainly in terms of what to expect over the course of the next week or so I think what one one one of the key takeaways that I have taken note of this week has been the decline in oil prices and that's likely to act as a little bit of a deflationary drag or an inflationary drag on prices over the course of the next two or three months we've come off quite significantly over the course of the past month and at the moment unlike equity markets we don't appear to be showing any indications of a rebound we've also broken below the 200 day moving average I've been asked to look at silver so I'll look at that in a minute and I've been asked to look at Aussie dollar and cable well both Aussie and cable they're quite significant because we've got quite big week for both next week but in terms of the oil price I'll just finish off that the fact that we've broken below the 200 day moving average is likely to be significant in that we could well see a retest of the 70 dollars a barrel level and for all the talk of a hundred dollar oil and everything else I think it's significant that we've heard that the Trump administration has given waivers to eight countries for within respect of Iranian sanctions which suggests to me that the president is worried about high gasoline prices and how they're going to affect his base and I think that's probably why you've seen WTI prices come off probably more than Brent prices over the course of the past couple of days if we can have a quick look at WTI we can see that we've broken the long-term trend line here and we're trading below the levels that we saw in the middle of the summer and trading back at levels last seen in April more significantly we did see a couple of weeks ago a significant significant bearish reversal at the beginning of October which would suggest that we are in line for a little bit more weakness in oil prices going forward so let's move to silver a little bit too rich for my blood I have to say but that does appear to be in a bit of a range and we're in the top of that range at the moment there's a big big resistance around about the level where we are now if I draw in horizontal line here I'm very big on these sorts of levels support and resistance levels because generally they're a good rule of thumb for selling interest and buying interest and certainly in the context of the range that we've seen over the course of the past few weeks anywhere above 1480 has been a decent area to go short and anywhere down near around about 1425 has been a decent area to go long now you could argue that we've basically traded the entire day's range or the entire month's range in the space of a day yesterday but it doesn't change the fact that we haven't broken out of it and until such times as we do I think you have to be a little bit careful about being overly bullish or bearish one way or the other so looking at silver prices I still think that's in a range likely to continue to remain so over the course of the next few days if we do get a break above 15 then the likelihood is we'll probably get an awful lot of stop-loss buying going through there taking us back up to the levels that we saw in the middle of the summer looking at the Aussie dollar we've got an RBA rate meeting next week we've broken out of the downtrend that we've been in for quite some time since the beginning of this year which and that is likely to be significant certainly in terms of the overall of potential of an overall move higher what I would like to do with this is look at a weekly chart to see whether or not there's any evidence of a bullish reversal and it's not conclusive by any stretch of the imagination but I think if we can close anywhere above 7250 then I think there's a decent possibility that we can move higher this daily candle here does worry me slightly because if we look at that and compare it to the daily candle that we saw in September here the last time we posted one of these we then proceeded to decline back down again so I think for me the daily close here is going to be very important and also the fact that we have the RBA next week the Reserve Bank of Australia who will be meeting to set rates and I think it's unlikely that we will see any change to monetary policy there fears of a slowdown in China are still very much front and center likely to remain so we've got Chinese trade numbers next week and as a result I think that an awful lot of attention will be paid on whether or not those Chinese export numbers in particular show a hit from the tariffs that came into effect at the end of September on the 200 billion dollars worth of extra Chinese goods which the tariff was levied at 10 percent so Aussie dollar I think I'd really want to see us hold above this 72 level to really get an indication as to whether or not we can go any higher I'm not convinced by the fact that we've seen a strong move higher and we haven't been able to sustain the gains that we've seen thus far for me that's very very important we need to sustain this move above 72 to move higher towards 73 but that's a very good question if the election in the midterm doesn't go in Trump's favor how will the dollar react for me I think it's likely to be bearish for the dollar and why do I say that the reason I say that is because it's going to be make it very very difficult for President Trump to follow through on the promise that he made about further tax cuts to the middle class because if he if the republicans don't control both houses it makes it that much more difficult to push legislation through legislation that he wants to push through and that for me is important because the democrats won't waste an opportunity to basically give President Trump a bit of a bloody nose he's very polarizing they don't like him I mean most of the people on his own side don't like him so the the the democrats probably can't stand him so they won't waste an opportunity to make his life difficult and I think if it doesn't go in his favor I think it'll be much less it'll be much more difficult for the president to follow through on a fiscally expansive economic policy and that in itself could actually temper expectations about fed rate rises in 2019 at the moment the fed's working on the policy of the fact that the tax cuts brought in at the beginning of this year are likely to continue to push the US economy higher in terms of GDP but that is likely to be fairly temporary and ultimately the effects of that will start to roll off as we head into the end of q4 and the beginning of q1 if he maintains the status quo it means that he's likely to continue to try and fiscally expand his the the the tax policy and implement further reforms with respect to tax cuts so for me I think if the midterms go against him it could potentially be dollar negative whether it's stock market negative of course is another matter entirely but in terms of the dollar I think it will be I think it'll be potentially dollar negative so hopefully that answers your question in terms of the cable because we haven't done that yet and I will do that now getting a bit of a rebound in the dollar it's not unexpected given the fact that those numbers were fairly decent we will probably see a little bit of a fallback 130 20 for me is quite a big level and I think given where we were at the beginning of the week given where we are now we could well struggle to get back through that that particular high there or today's highs around about 130 40 that's where the 100 day moving average is we've also got the 50 day moving average that's likely to act as a bit of a barrier and even if we do get through that we've also got trend line resistance coming in from this year's highs coming in just above that so I would suggest the potential further upside in the pound is fairly limited from where we are at the moment and it's quite likely we'll probably drift back down to around about 129 70 129 60 as we head in as we head towards the end of the day going to finish up I think we've gold seen a little bit of a softening in the gold price and again finding in a little bit of a resistance around this week's highs I think we'll struggle to push much above this week's highs given that equity markets have been on a decent run this week we could see a little bit of a slip a slip back to around about the the 1225 area over the course of the next couple of days at the moment it's not really benefiting from it's really benefited from a slightly weaker dollar over the course of the past couple of days but in terms of safe haven it's not really done anything that significant does anyone else have any other questions you want to ask me I'll quickly look at the Nikkei 225 on the daily chart and again like the S&P 500 it's running in to the 200 day moving average so one of the things that I'd like to take away from the events of the past few months is if we look at the monthly charts on all of these all of these all of these charts if I just quickly select the right option of course we've posted a significant bearish reversal on the monthly charts what's significant though is obviously we haven't taken out the 20,400 level but certainly I think the fact that we've failed to take out the previous highs and we've posted such a strong reversal would appear to suggest to me certainly on a monthly basis that we will struggle to retest those highs in the short to medium term it's a similar sort of story on the S&P if we look at the monthly chart it looks pretty ugly and unless there's a significant turnaround in risk sentiment then for me I think it's very it's a struggle to make the case for a retest of the highs given the fact that we've taken out the lows of the last three months in the space of a single month it's going to make investors very nervous about going aggressively long into the end of the year that's not to say that we might not get a rebound into Thanksgiving and potentially into Christmas but there's a significant number of barriers in our way before we can even contemplate a retest or a move above the 2800 level and the peaks that we saw in the middle of October there so this is one of the key levels that I'm going to be talking about with respect to the S&P before I get particularly excited about a retest of the highs on a technical basis we've done an awful lot of damage in the past month or so so while we could get a retest of 2770 or 2800 it's really going to take a significant shift for me to get excited about a retest of the highs at the moment I'm not expecting to see that so something else to keep an eye out for next week Fed meeting is on Thursday not really expecting to see too many surprises by that they're probably going to keep their rate path intact and try and keep the markets guessing but certainly I think keep a very close eye on next week's services ISM ladies and gentlemen and have a look at in particular at the employment components as well as the headline numbers are we starting to see a drop-off there are we always starting to see evidence of wage inflation we've certainly seen a decent wages number today but what we want to what we want to be able to do is to continue to see that in subsequent months and obviously I'll revisit that when I hold this webinar a month from now on the 7th of December when we cover the November employment report but unless anyone else has any other questions for me this month please feel free to listen to this back on YouTube when I post it up later today otherwise I'd just like to thank you what do I see on the Dow stronger pullback than the S&P right okay let's have a look at the Dow I'm being asked have a quick look at the Dow it's a similar sort of story the only difference is we are already back above the 200 day moving average but if we look at the 50 day moving average we can see that it's acted as resistance and support in equal measure over the course of the past few months so for me this peak here at around about 25,860 and the high here so we could see a pullback in the Dow but again it's a similar sort of story if we look at this move here and that move there 50 percent again 25,870 significant level actually that's the 61.8 if I zoom that out I'll make that a little bit bigger then I can actually see the numbers a lot more clearly there we go so we're above the 50 percent on the Dow but the problem with the Dow Richard I hope you don't mind me saying this is that it's not a particularly good arbiter of where the S&P is going to go because it's so market cap heavy that it tends to overshoot to the downside and overshoot to the upside what it didn't do however is break my trend line from the lows this year one thing that is significant and might prompt a little bit of a rebound is the small cap index which has also had a nice rebound and could well post a bearish reversal on the weekly chart but even then we could well see a retest of the 200 day moving average and the 50 and what's significant about this particular chart here is that we could well be starting to see the beginnings of a death cross where the 50 day moving average crosses below the 200 day moving average and they're both starting to turn lower so we could get a rebound back to here around about 1650 but we're going to need to see a significant move above 1600 which are these peaks here to really take away the negative momentum that's really been with us since the beginning of September for the US small cap index now I mean I think you're asking me about the Chinese one and the seven level I think the reason people fixate on the seven level is simply because it's just above the previous all-time lows or all-time highs for the dollar and it's a round number so if we break above seven then it'll be a new all-time high sixty ninety nine will be an all-time high for the dollar against the one or an all-time low for the one and as such on a technical basis that could mean that the one could weaken significantly an awful lot more and I think that more than anything I think the seven number and even of itself isn't significant it's the fact that it would be a change of big figure it would be a round number and as such could signal that the Chinese are particularly worried about a much deeper slowdown than they originally were and it could also mean that they're using their currency to mitigate the prospect of higher tariffs from the US so there's a number of reasons as to why markets are fixating on seven it's a symptom not a cause hopefully that makes sense okay so ladies gents I'd like to thank you all for tuning in thank you for your company today I'll try and post this on YouTube within the next couple of hours but until next month thanks very much for listening and I hope you all have a great weekend


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