At the time that Haga Inde was sw questin, he found 1.5 million metric tons of national strategic maize grain reserves. 1.5 million metric tons. Foloik record bomb hazards in 2019-20 and 2021 the food reserve agency had accumulated a record of 1.5 million metric tons of maize. We saw the storage facilities across the countries and all mares sheds were bursting at their seams. The food reserve agency had more stocks than they could handle. By the time that Hadainani took over government, there was also to be 3.2 million metric tons of mares to be harvested in the 2021-2022 season. This was due to the efficient distribution of inputs naqema sa kwauku kaumisha kboosa pokupita hiri ya kefutili piputia mewa nisa kwau ufo na klipa naqema seha Kwauka nkhatiaь na katiaa na naza naza naza niwa naza naza naza naza 3.2 miliya neti naza 1.5 miliya neti 4.7 miliyia neti kwa kwaa 2021, kwaqeitia na yung wa m�iawa ulitua ni kwaqeitia nini meziwek ya 15 a 17 kwaqeitia. Kiko mbtukera mkwere mkwa mazaidisha kunzima na hizaya. I'm telling the truth against the lies that they keep telling you that they found empty coffers, they found a dead economy. The fourth thing that Haga Inde did in my inherited from us were prices. He inherited prices from the patriotic point. And one important price inherited was the price of fuel on the 24th of August after the swearing in at Hero Stadium. I went to a filling station and I still keep the receipt. I paid 15 kwacha for a liter of petrol. On the 24th of August, 2021, I paid 15 kwacha for a liter of petrol. At that time, people had been entertained by Mr. BMW, accusing the patriotic front of having had middlemen in the fuel supply chain and that those middlemen were stealing 3 kwacha per liter. He promised the people that he would remove the middlemen so that the price of fuel would be 12 kwacha. Today, under Mr. Calculator and his self-praising party, they have managed to increase the price of fuel to a galloping 30 kwacha when they promised 5 kwacha. What is very frustrating is that while the local price of fuel has increased, the international fuel price has reduced. At paragraph 12 of this budget speech, Minister Musoko Tuane acknowledged this fact at paragraph 12 of this speech for the sake of clarity. Let me quote this particular speech. He said, and I quote, paragraph 11 by the way, and I quote, crude oil prices also reduced to an average of 82.8 US dollars per barrel from US dollars 104.6 dollars per barrel between 2022 and 2023. While there was such a huge decrease from 104 dollars to 82 dollars, what has happened to the local prices? Have they reduced? From the time it took over government, we warned Haga Inde and his government against his monthly review of fuel prices as this made economic planning very cumbersome, if not impossible. Sitted here in this same room, speaking to you fellow countrymen and women, we did warn him, we told him you cannot continue to have a monthly review of fuel prices. Sitted here early 2022. He did not listen. He was as arrogant as ever and argued that that was the best formula. We are not surprised to hear that he now has come to see what we already saw ourselves. But this also goes to show you that this is the trouble that you go into when you put people on job training. Those of us who know about governance already knew that you cannot continue like this. It has taken him more than a year to come and realize that this is wrong. Meanwhile, the economy has been damaged. Meanwhile, companies have been shut. Meanwhile, the cost of living has increased because of his poor management of the economy. I remember M.C.S., he warned us. I'm telling you the things that he found. So you can compare with what they keep telling you that they found a broken economy. I've told you four things already. Number five, millimile price. On the 24th of August 2021, millimile was at the highest of 120 kwacha, a bag. Not average, highest. 120 kwacha, a bag. And now it is no less than 320 kwacha. Even next to a milling company it is no less than 320 kwacha. In some places the price of millimile has gone as 400 kwacha. We have also noted with disbelief that even ZNS are now involved in distributing millimile from private millers. In an attempt to bring down prices. We saw ZNS trucks packed at private milling companies, collecting millimile from private milling companies to try and reduce on the cost of transportation because they think ZNS is transporting for free. As if those trucks are not using fuel. Meanwhile, government milling plants that we established, we established them. Those government milling plants were established to cushion prices on the local market. Under Mr. Haga Indehijidema BMW, capitalist of the West kind. Those milling companies, government milling companies, Zamba National Service, correctional service facilities, milling companies are now being involved in exporting our maize and exporting our millimile. You even have the bags printed Zamba Correctional Service milling company for export. Those companies were not established to export our millimile. We established them to cushion the local market, the prices on the local market. We are also dismayed at the warped decision of selling subsidized millimile through shop right shops. ZNS millimile now is being sold in shop right shops. And some people are saying now people can go and buy millimile from shop right. How many of our people live in walking proximity to shop right? So you expect people from my village in Kalavo to get on the bus, to get into Mungu to go and buy millimile from shop right and take that kawan bag back to Kalavo and you say have reduced the price. What kind of warped thinking is this? You have increased the fuel of price and therefore you have increased the cost of transport and you say people must travel long distances to go to shop right to go and buy chip millimile. Number 6, on the 24th of August 2021, when Haga Inde swore to defend the constitution of Zambia and to provide leadership to the 18 million Zambians, the majority of who are employed in the agriculture sector. More than 70% of the Zambian population are employed in the agriculture sector. Haga Inde found fertilizer at 600 kwacha, a bag, within 24 months. Bmw has increased the cost of fertilizer to more than 1200 kwacha, a bag. And now our people are being forced to queue up to go and receive fertilizer in dishes, in medas and you expect that there will be a bumper harvest in Zambia. We set up the rural electrification authority with the intention of making sure that more and more Zambians have access to electricity. By 24th of August 2021, connection fees were only 700 kwacha. At the highest 700 kwacha today, under the capitalists, for a poor villager to have the electricity dropped in their homes, for a person in challenge to have electricity dropped, for a person in material to have electricity dropped, for a person in Kawambwa to have electricity dropped in their home, they have to look for 7,700 kwacha. Number eight, the national power generation capacity, which we inherited as the patriotic front, was only 1,600 megawatts. 1,600 megawatts by 2011, by 24th of August 2021, ramped up this production to 3,500 megawatts. More than double. And yet Zambia's conception at that time was only 2,200 megawatts. Meaning we had 1,300 megawatts excess power, which at peak production we could export without causing any disturbance in the supply on the local market. One would ask why we facing load shading challenges. In case you don't know, it is because of what Mr. Againdi said. And you remember him saying that we must sell power to the regional market now. Because if we don't sell to the regional market, we are going to lose those markets. So when we have more power there will be no market for us to sell. Meaning, still for the growth of the local economy, build the economies of the other countries so you can come and supply power later. Who will supply that power if all the Zambians will be dead by the time? Who will supply it? Or what use is it to supply power to educate people in Boswana, to educate people in Namibia when your own children are not able to study because they have load shading, which you have created by exporting power to other countries? Again, warped thinking. Number nine, by the 24th of August 2021, Zambia was referred to, the whole country was referred to as a construction site. Wherever you went, you saw dust going up in the air. Dust not because of cars, dust because there was construction work taking place. Hagaende found extensive infrastructure development done with roads. And not only roads, we did bridges. And by the way, I felt extremely surprised that a man could be so engrossed in himself that he could even refer to Kazungula and say, these are the projects that we have started which is paying back. Payback period already, short payback period. And yet this is a man who criticized us when we were investing in that Kazungula bridge. I was also shocked to see him go to Kasomenu Mwenda. And the bragg were doing this bridge without realizing that that was a road that was left by one Nixon Chilangwa and Edgar Tagualungu. We did airports.  And yet today when he flies in and out of Zambia like he likes to do, which is his hobby, he learns at a presidential pavilion built by us. His ministers go through an airport that we constructed. When they go to Livingston, they go to Harimuangangkumbula Airport, which we constructed. When they go to Nduala, they go to Simon Mansakapa Airport, which we constructed. And yet they say they found a damaged economy. What cheeky. They found we have constructed dams. They are proud now about Womboshi Dam. I heard one member of parliament complaining about dams in Chirundu. Without acknowledging that those dams were initiated by the patriotic front government. They are bragging about having employed teachers. As though they could have employed them, hadn't the pay of constructed schools. Hadn't the pay of constructed colleges, would they have had the teachers. Hadn't it been for the universities. By 2011, there were hardly three universities in this country. By the time we were leaving office in 2021, there were more than 15 universities. Government and private universities. They are bragging about employing health personnel. Could they have employed them without us having constructed health facilities? We are waiting to see the day when they are going to commission their first toilet. So as they continue to tell lies to the world, we shall continue to remind the world of the truth. Where are we today? What is the state of the country today? Mr. Againde and his minister of finance are bragging about debt restructuring. And yet the reality is that under the new doom government, Zambia has increased debt. Deplated its foreign reserves, increased food insecurity and has unsustainable exchange rate to an extent that the world bank in 2022, not in 2021, but in 2022 reclassified Zambia as a low income poor country from where we left it. A low middle income status. Zambia has been downgraded on the level of poverty from a low middle income to now a low income poor country. And people are saying they are economists. They know how to manage the economy. The country has also witnessed the highest cost of living ever. High unemployment and high poverty levels. The recently published Zambia statistics agency report on poverty assessment for 2022 which was released after conducting the eighth living conditions and monitoring survey shows that the incidence of poverty has worsened from 54.4% to 60%. What this means fellow countrymen and women is that 60% of Zambians are living in abject poverty. I will come to this matter again a little later. The elephant in the room, the IMF. I wish to state that as far as we are concerned, this hoa arrangement is just a concept of chasing the wind. The IMF discussion is chasing the wind, running after the wind. We have noted that this government has spent great effort chasing the $1.3 billion IMF bailout package for two years. You remember they told us when they were voted in? It took the patriotic front seven years negotiating for us it has taken us only a few weeks. We have agreed with the IMF $1.3 billion. We told them we shall see. Time shall tell and indeed time is telling. When the IMF reached a staff level agreement with Zambia for an extended credit facility of 38 months from 2022 to 2025 there was jubilation in the UPND camp with President Haga India himself leading the mockery against us in the patriotic front. However, we warned that the agreement was not an end in itself and that many processes were to be undertaken before reaching the end. Further, we expressed concern with the agreement especially that it called for the removal of subsidies or support to fuel, electricity, agriculture and public projects in order to allegedly restore fiscal and debt sustainability. We warned them. We said you cannot take away these subsidies they are important. We also warned that the $1.3 billion bailout was tied to what must be a separate program referred to as a comprehensive debt treatment program under the G20 framework. This meant that the $1.3 billion would not be released until Zambia agreed with its creditors on how the debt would be paid or treated. Not only the coalition of creditors but also the individual creditors. We warned them and now they were in Marrakesh and they are telling you exactly what we warned them. Now they are saying yes we have reached this agreement. Now we are going to start negotiating with individual creditors but didn't we tell you again under 5 and again we have no plan. And again job on training.  Musafikarit. He is still learning how to engage gears. That's what is happening now. That's where we are as a country. Musakutwani proceeded to budget for the money. The $1.3 billion they were expecting from the IMF. They already proceeded and budgeted. He said, yabuera dana. And my friend BMW also busted how he was sure that the entire process was completed between 3 and 6 months. They said within 3 and 6 months we will have completed this. It's more than 24 months. And they were telling us from Marrakesh what we told them. Despite Musakutwani's optimism and the bragging from President Hijilema the extended credit facility was only approved in August 2022 by the IMF executive board after missing the April 2022 deadline. The work of the official creditors committee only began in June 2022. And it wasn't until June 2023 that Zambia reached an agreement on debt treatment with official creditors committee in line with the stringent IMF parameters. And so far countrymen and women only the debt regarding China has been rescheduled. And again because of poor and careless handling of bilateral relations by BMW and his new doom government. Especially with China government missed a golden opportunity to seek total cancellation or debt write off of the Chinese debt. This is the reason why we advised that we who contracted debt when we were contracting it we knew how we were going to repay. And yet Haga in the light his way through and said to me I've already got global connections, they've already promised me 25 billion. As soon as you vote for me the 25 billion will come in Zambia. We told you Zambians that we borrowed and we knew how to pay back. We would not have abandoned China, would have been in discussion with China. We had already started discussions with China. And we did that because for us we are not aligned and we are not puppets of any other country, we are puppets of Zambians. And whatever we do we put Zambians first. We don't look over our shoulders to see what is another country saying about us. No. Now they go to China after they have made numerous trips in one direction where they were receiving promises and entering MOUs which they can't make public. And they expect that China will oblige. That's a missed opportunity. Further, the debt owing to international financial institutions commercial and private entities remains unresolved. They have not touched at all, it remains totally untouched. During this wind chasing activity with the IMF government abandoned effective plans to realize or raise domestic resources. Abandoned tax revenue from the mining sector that was bringing into government coffers an annual average of 1.1 billion since 2019. And that has gone from 1.1 billion dollars per year down to only 400 million dollars per year. 700 million dollars gone down the drain. Further, economic sector such as the agricultural sector have been bungled in the recording diminished economic activity. I heard in some speech president Haga Indejidema bragging about exporting blackberry. How many farmers in Zambia benefit from the growing of blackberry?  We're exporting blackberry. We're exporting blueberry. In Kasakwa this said we're exporting Maluben because at least Maluben is everywhere. Now only one farmer producing blueberry in Zambia one farmer producing blueberry and because the Zambians can't afford it you export it and you brag we're exporting blueberry. At Maniosovati. The only policies, programs and activities making progress in Zambia. The only ones making progress in Zambia are those that benefit foreigners. Foreign companies or companies associated with the UPND leadership and not the Zambian people. Not the Zambian people. What happened to gold in Kasakwa? What are we hearing about Suji Light? What are we hearing about jets landing with millions of dollars and others landing with gold? Who are involved? We have heard this boring song which comes out like a broken vinyl record about CDF. CDF this CDF that real gentlemen men who even have families they have children in their homes and they go to parliament one after another bragging CDF CDF we have increased the location of CDF we only found 1.6 million now we have increased to 28.3 million when you read the accounts of the 28.3 million per constituency for 2022 and for 2023 how much has been released? 5.9 million. What are you busting about? Stop bragging. Stop it. It is immoral to go and brag before cameras and say we have increased CDF and yet in reality what you are releasing is nothing and as a matter of fact you even brag and say this is a war of decentralization and yet you know that you have taken away the power from the people to decide on how to use their money now it is the ministers who are deciding what decentralization is that? Every member of parliament has been instructed and I talked about this before every member of parliament must go and spend 1 million to build a chief's palace even a member of parliament must build a chief's palace a member of parliament must build a chief's palace what kind of nonsense is this? and you say we are decentralizing and bragging and bragging from start to end of the presidential speech from start to end of the budget speech bragging about CDF I would like you countrymen and women to score upon this bragging because it is nothing but a smoke screen you have failed to release 28.5, 28.3 million per constituence you only release 5.9 and you say we are now increasing to 30.6 million at Ichiputabat another smoke screen which they have been bragging about free education which free education? there is no one in the UPND who introduced free education because they found it how many children were paying for education in Zambia before UPND came into being? the 200 kwacha PTFE that pupils were paying is only 200 kwacha to assist the running of the school and you take out that 200 kwacha and get it back through increase of fuel increase of minimu free education what free education is it? what is even worse is that it is now a well known fact that even the administrative fund support to schools is inadequate and now teachers and pupils are suffering because their classrooms are overcrowded 100, 120 children in one classroom for one teacher and the teachers don't even have the teaching aids I have relatives and friends in Wengwa and I want to tell you that my friends and relatives who are teachers in Wengwa are regretting the introduction of this so called free education policy because they are no longer able to raise local resources to fund the smooth operations of their schools they are regretting because before they would collect the 200 kwacha in the school there is chok they would make sure that there is sufficient money for them to start upgrading their classrooms their schools all that now is down the drain and education anywhere in the world is an investment by both the government and the learner or the parent of the learner and that's what we're doing the only difference between them and us is that we are charging 200 kwacha but provided higher quality education than them who took away the 200 kwacha and are providing poor quality education let me get back my dear colleagues to the issue of debt because they have kept talking about this for a long time not too long ago our member of central committee in Banguelu MP Hon. Anthony Kasando expressed government's high appetite for borrowing to run government he classified he disclosed rather that government had borrowed 6 billion dollars in 2 years that's what he disclosed that government had borrowed 6 billion dollars in only 2 years government in turn denied their sessions but failed up to now they have failed to disprove the information a closer look at the figures proves Hon. Bukasandwe right and this is how according to the 2022 annual borrowing plans document approved by the National Assembly at the end of June 2022 the total stock of central government debt was 25.2 billion dollars which was 13.25 billion dollars external debt and 11.95 US dollars domestic debt and that domestic debt in terms of Kwacha is 203.28 billion Kwacha now as an example to meet the budget deficit in 2023 government sought parliamentary approval for their annual borrowings plan amounting to 2.22 billion dollars government contracted new loans of 1.4 billion dollars external financing from the World Bank and Africa Development Bank among others and 15 billion 575 million or equivalent to 760 million dollars domestic borrowings from government bonds and treasury bills recently published figures indicated public debt was equivalent to 31.6 billion dollars and 32.8 billion including interest arrears sadly their borrowings unlike for us in the patriotic front which went into productive sectors their borrowings are purely for consumption and leave no tangible projects for the country for example in 2022 the World Bank Group through the International Development Association released 750 million dollars concessional loan to Zambia touted as the highest financing support to a developing country in a single year yet the country has not seen or benefited from this huge funding support where have we seen anything happen with that 750 million dollars where we just hear president bragging Avsan Kikaboho in Mandevo Avsan Kikaboho in Matero 750 million dollars support where has it gone this reminds me to talk a little about the so called Lusaka and Dola dual courage way and again they are bragging minister of infrastructure is bragging who have reduced the cost but is not disclosing that they have also rescoped the project the thickness of the road we wanted to construct is more than 200% what they are working on the shelf life of the road we should have done is double the lifespan of the road they want to do do you expect the cost to be the same we wanted to have bypasses they are not creating any bypasses do you expect the cost to be the same what is worse is they are calling it a PPP in the higher foreign company come and give it money which is locally available at Napsa at Wekman's compensation money belonging to you citizens they get it and give it as a loan to a foreign company which comes with only a briefcase no money they are not even tools not even equipment they are just coming with a briefcase with the Kasmo agreement to come and use locally available resources to construct a road in your country and then you allow them 25 years to manage that road and to collect toll fees for 25 years and from what they are collecting they go back and pay you and you say it's a PPP I was on the road recently they have been talking about this road since last year and I was on this road I have been hearing in parliament they are saying we have started construction those of you have been on the road you have seen them patching and by the way patching with a thinner layer than what was there thin layer and the question that begs an answer is if now they are patching those portals with a thin layer are they going to erase the whole road once again and do a new road our position is that if indeed you have realized that the local financial cut market has enough money to do that road hire that Chinese company as a contractor let them come and construct the road pay them let them go to China with what you have paid them but let the road be managed by Zambia let the money from the toll fees go into treasury you can't give away a project 25 years to a foreigner and yet the money they are using is yours to put simply it is the same as a person saying contractor come and build a house for me and the contractor says ok I am going to borrow money from your wife I will build the house and allow you and your wife to live in this house for 10 years and you will be paying me rent so what I pay back to your wife I have taught you that let me leave that and move to a matter that is affecting all of us minimil Wulutosh and the provider of Wulutosh the agricultural sector the patriotic front government both under president Maiko Chilufiasata and president Edgar Chagwalungu recognized that the farmer input support program was a brilliant development program to this end the government scaled up the program to 500,000 farmers to 1.1 million farmers who received inputs at the farm gate the program paid off with the country recording the highest bumper harvest ever recorded especially in 2019 when the harvest recorded was 3.7 million metric tons the country also began to record secure food security further the program supported household food security for communities in rural areas and helped reduce extreme poverty it is therefore sad to learn how this aga in the government is being inconsistent on the farmer input support program one day they say the farmer input support program is abandoned the next day they say it is reformed and yet the other day they say it is going to continue in the same format now the farmers don't even know is it abandoned is it reformed and if it is reformed in what form if it is going to continue why are you being inconsistent now we are even hearing that it is going to be replaced by a kalova type of farming support code comprehensive vocational support program and the modalities and guidelines of this credit scheme have not yet been worked out last week if I recall the vice president was asked in parliament about this program she was asked how is this going to work she had no choice but to ask the minister of agriculture to come back at a later date to come and clarify she did not say come back tomorrow next week she said at a later date when they are ready meaning they are not even ready this is oktober they are not ready even the minister of agriculture himself doesn't know how this so-called agriculture credit will work today oktober they don't know the recent national crisis with main shortages high minimal prices is because government has bangled the agriculture sector your government of Haga'indi Hijidema my friend BMW has exported the entire grain reserves that they found everything they exported and Mr. Haga'indi's government continues to collect money to export more maize and midimu even when we don't have they know we don't have but they are collecting money bring you heard recently how minister of defense my friend Ambrose Lufuma confirmed that government had received 15 million dollars towards a 50 million contract to export minimu to the democratic republic of Congo they signed an agreement we shall supply maize with 50 million dollars give us 15 million advance give us meanwhile there is no maize who does that just who does that only HH indeed only HH the recent government announcement that ZDNS who sell the nation minimu at a price of 230 raises more questions than answers number one question where are they buying the maize if the maize is 284 bag where are they buying it for them to be able to sell minimu at 230 who is subsidizing because obviously there is a subsidy here who is subsidizing the other question is the crop purchase program is almost coming to an end and the food reserve agency has only purchased 343,000 metric tons as a 25th of September 2023 this is despite offers of on sport cash incentives and higher prices remember they told us we are increasing the price to 280 so that we can encourage farmers to sell the maize but even at 280 and promising we pay you cash they only bought 343,000 metric tons usually in previous seasons under the PF the agency would have by now received no less than 800,000 metric tons of maize by now FRA would have bought between 800,000 and 1 million metric tons of maize which pante pante they increase the price and they still fail to buy the maize that's the reason why I said yesterday thank God we lost elections so tiyu zambians can know the difference between governors and destroyers the failure for them to buy maize shows that there is no maize on the market there is nothing so then the question is where will ZNS get the maize for them to run their program and to make it sustainable where will they get the maize from there is no maize on the market will they go and buy the maize from FRA at 280 kwacha and sell the millimio at 230 number 2 ZNS sells millimio at their own depots and outlets at 150 kwacha per 25 kg bag why is government now selling the same millimio at 230 through shoprite why at their own mills they are selling for 150 they are subsidizing up to 150 and they deliver it to shoprite and sell it for 230 why do they want all zambians to go to ZNS milling plants how can you run an economy like that number 3 although the initiative to build industrial milling plants under the ZNS for us our goal was best in the country engaging in massive production to help keep the price of millimio down like I said earlier for them even without sufficient maize they are using these milling plants to export and you expect the prices of millimio in Zambia will reduce this is oktober and the price is already at 320 I can assure you zambians that come february 2024 Haga hindi was saying when I come you have 3 square mills a day I can assure you that the majority of zambians will have half a mill a day indeed once a week because the millimio will be unafordable the maize will not be there you remember that already last year and early this year Haga hindi was exporting GMO millimio now I can assure you he will even be tempted to bring yellow millimio meant for cattle feed from Brazil nipanotuli my dear countrymen and women I have spoken so much about these matters of mismanagement of our country by Haga hindi allow me to move to the patriotic front number one our central committee was scheduled to have its meeting central committee meeting this saturday 21st of oktober 2023 however that meeting has been moved to sunday 22nd oktober 2023 this is to give an opportunity for our leaders to mourn Bishop Doctor Peter and Lovo who will be put to rest on saturday 21st oktober 2023 I therefore call upon all our Lusaka best members all our Lusaka best leaders all our members of parliament who will be best in Lusaka on the 21st to kindly attend the burial service of Archbishop Peter and Lovo number two we have instructed our party structures across the country that while they continue with their very impressive use of WhatsApp groups and social media platforms they should now also embark on active physical campaigns to mobilize membership and the public we have encouraged the structures to submit notices to the police for the party to hold mass rallies across the country we are not pleading with the police it is our right our constitutional right number three utilization of other public gatherings we implore our members to ensure that they attend all public functions such as funerals weddings prayer sessions traditional ceremonies sports activities et cetera et cetera within their communities so that they utilize them to sensitize the members of the public on how the PF government deliver development during the period 2011 to 2021 this will also accord all of us an opportunity to do what the others don't want to see us doing to regroup we know that they get very annoyed when they see us regrouping but regrouping we shall whether they like it or not regrouping we shall so let us regroup through funerals let us regroup through weddings all members of the party in your communities please go and attend funerals don't shy away number four day of national prayer we have requested all our members to participate in the activities of the national day of prayer fasting and reconciliation which falls on Wednesday 18th October 2023 we want to implore all Zambians to also observe this day please don't be discouraged all Zambians, my fellow countrymen and women Zambia was first declared David Livingston when he knelt down in Chitambo Mission when he said upon this soil shall emerge a nation of Christians it was followed up by the declaration by Frederick Chiluba that Zambia is a Christian nation which was reaffirmed by Edgar Tagualungu who declared the 18th day of October as a day of reconciliation a day of prayer don't be discouraged by the one person who said this 18th day of prayer is a useless day for us Zambians it is not a useless day prayer for us can never be useless so appeal to all of us Zambians please don't be discouraged by those words let those who think that 18th of October is a useless day I am going to do things that are unbibiliko and Christian on that day for all of us Zambians if we can't join the body of Christ across the country where there are activities even in your own hope on that day kneel down and pray to God reconcile first of all with yourself reconcile with your family reconcile with your neighbors reconcile with one another reconcile with God on that day members of the patriotic front and all peace-loving citizens of Zambia let us go on our knees and pray to God 24th of October 1964 some people had not yet been born others like Kuliana Ishiva was only two years old and therefore had nothing to do with the dependence day and therefore has no choice in the matter all of us in the patriotic front and all countrymen and women I implore you to observe independence day celebrations all of us let us go and participate whether those events are organized by the state or not let us go and celebrate because that's our independence day and we owe it to our forefathers blood was spilled for Zambia to be declared an independent state so please let us observe that day however I want to inform you that our participation in official activities and state functions shall be a subject of review at our next central committee meeting but before that I would just like to encourage all of us to observe that day 28th of October as you are all aware this year marks the 9th anniversary since the passing of Zambia's 5th Republican president and founding father of the patriotic front President Maiko Chilufiasata I would like to encourage all our members to observe that day we have asked our provincial leaders in all the provinces in the country to notify the police that on that day they are going to hold commemoration of their anniversary the 9th anniversary of the passing of president Maiko Chilufiasata in the provincial headquarters for Lusaka province they are also instructed to put notice to the police that we commemorate this day and I implore all members of the party who shall be in Lusaka to come and join us first of all at the memorial site and then at a place that we shall be informed through the provincial committee finally as a party we have declared October 28th the day that we honour the memory of our founding president and the 5th republican president of Zambia a man who contributed immensely to multi-party democracy in this country a man who founded the most formidable political party in Zambia, the patotic front in honour of his memory October 28th is hereby declared a green day we therefore encourage all members of our party and members of the public on that day to wear green on the 28th of October let us all wear green or a piece of green on whatever we shall be wearing this will be in memory and honour of president Maiko Chilufia Sata contribution to this country those of us who will be attending the memorial of president Sata without exception we must have something green wherever we shall be members of the press and our followers across the country I thank you more sincerely for your attention thank you very much delivered by


Conversations outside the talks are better than the talks, and I fear this talk will probably continue that trend, but Because I'm the only thing keeping you between a day of fun and And and lunch and everything else And I don't know if the group photo is something people are looking forward to maybe there It's more fun than my seminar for sure. I agree, but I thought that you know What I do is I'm a theorist And I'm a very much a very much theorist and I think I view myself as a provocateur So this is just gonna be a talk to provoke a lot of people. It's gonna make a lot of bombastic claims. You should take him You should argue with me. So having said that please interrupt me Interruptions are built into these things make arguments, but what I'm gonna try to convince you is that now that we're thinking about microbes We can start thinking and thinking about complex communities. We have to kind of revisit These kind of classical models of ecology and community ecology that were developed initially by people like, you know Hutchinson's Levin's MacArthur Among the few Tillman blah blah blah the list goes on But I've been I've found these papers about four years ago and they really transform my view of the world But also in reading them now in the present age I realized there were real limitations that we have to overcome and I'm gonna try to argue to you that statistical physics Can help us overcome these limitations and in particular what I'm gonna talk about today are essentially work maybe Okay, what I'm gonna talk about today are mostly niche based Models and these kind of niche based models that maybe the most canonical example of this are these MacArthur warblers And so these are these two kinds of birds and you know The idea was how do they coexist on the tree and so there was detailed painstakingly Observations and the idea was that they figured out that one of these kind of birds lived up in the leaves Oh, thank you One of these things lived up in the leaves and the other one lived in the beak on the on the bark And so the basic idea was that each thing had a resource it was best at consuming and basically the these red birds were competitively excluded from up here and the green birds were competitively excluded from here and Given if we take this as our central intuition then it becomes kind of tricky to understand how we get these very complicated microbial communities and So the question is how do you get something where coexistence is generic or what's not and when we don't do this so The next quote is my first provocation Which is why are we so surprised by cooperation and coexistence right and Chris Marx dared me to put Donald Trump in here So I put Donald Trump in here And and so I would argue that we're really influenced by the world We live in and the world we live in is a dog eat dog neoliberal world and in particular You know this there's this very famous Margaret Thatcher quote as you know, there's no such thing as society There are only individual men and women and what Margaret Thatcher of course meant was that we have to look at the units That we if you want to understand the whole the only way you can think about it is by looking at the units that make it up Right is this and it is very much this idea that what defines society and the whole is competition at the level of the individual And then you know this this is just a this is just a quote from Donald Trump about cheaters And and we can make of why we're obsessed with these things But I would try to argue that you know a lot of evidence suggests at least in the microbial world That it should be pretty generic and easy to get coexistence right at least every place we look and the question of course is why and So and so what I'm going to try to argue from argue to you is a style of modeling that is not bottom up But top down and that basically uses statistical physics and the basic idea is that maybe to understand these communities We don't want to start building them up one by one So Jeff Jeff is okay with this because Jeff gave me an office for my sabbatical So but but we do have these kind of very different philosophical world views about how when things become simple So that I would argue there's three. There's two different ways to make a problem simple One is to break it up into its little parts and look at what's happening, but in statistical physics We know there's another limit where things become simple Which is in the limit of many many many things interacting together Right, and this is because largely things become statistical and we can use things like the central limit there and so what I'm going to try to argue is that You know if we start from a slightly different philosophical Prejudices you get what you end up with slightly different kinds of models and these kind of models are good for answering different questions Let's say right and and maybe it's worth exploring this opposite view where you don't go from the bottom down But the top up so um So I would argue in the strong form that we kind of have to overcome this cartesian fallacy We can't understand the community function by just understanding how the individual parts function in isolation And that secondly organized organisms modify their environment. We've seen that throughout this conference I think that's been a running theme and can transform the statistical structure of this environment And this is I'm going to argue This is especially true in the microbial communities because there's no trophic layer separation in the classic sense that you see in classical ecology and Finally, this is something Simon also did at the properties of large ecosystems with many species cannot be extrapolated from small Ecosystems because I would argue because of you get new emergent properties that come and especially this kind of environmental structuring so So Again the goal of this talk and I'm gonna show you Experiments that Albert was gonna dwell on a lot more, but there are experiments that end of all this bobbling Which is the goal is to build theoretical models where we incorporate the organism as active subjects in its own Construction of its own environment and a lot of these ideas are not mine. They're written by this very famous famous pair of evolutionary Ecologists and evolutionary biologists who have influenced my thinking more than anyone on this field And I will constantly refer to rich dick Levin's papers throughout this talk But I found this book quite quite provocative and quite interesting So here is essentially the outline of the talk We're gonna start and again the goal is gonna be to try to revisit these classical models in Theoretical ecology, but think about them in large ecosystems So we're gonna introduce to you some these classical niche paradigm of theoretical community ecology I'm gonna introduce you to the model that we're gonna study Throughout with many many modifications to try to make it applicable to large and microbial thing Which is MacArthur's consumer resource model And then I'm gonna show you how we are trying to basically turn that into a staff Mac model instead of thinking about MacArthur's consumer resource models with one or two species and one or two resources We're asking can we analyze it in the opposite limit where you have many resources and many species and then the last part I'm gonna tell you how if you incorporate cross-feeding You you you can get very generic thing you can almost Guaranteed coexistence and I'll show you some experiments at the end that Seems to suggest this might not be as crazy as it seems So so let's start with some classical paradigm of theoretical ecology or niche based theories And so Again You know theoretical ecology is an extremely well-developed field the papers are just absolutely brilliant I'm kind of sad. I didn't read them into until I was in my mid 30s But you know One of the defining things is this kind of niche theory which is the theory of competitive exclusion as I explained to you before The basic idea is that things compete for resources and everything has to be best at something And I think the most the simplest version of this and the probably one of the most influential is Tillman's r-star theory Which basically says that every species Basically has to be best at utilizing some resource in the environment and the experimental You know observations of these were largely developed using very macroscopic things birds trees grasses. This is a picture of some famous Experiments with grass that David Tillman did out in Minnesota. These are called the grass experiments They're quite influential in the 80s and the central intuition again that I want you to keep in mind Is that the number of species is strictly limited by the number of the limiting resources in the environment? And this is of course because of competitive exclusion Well, of course, it's not true. This is why yeah, go ahead No, I did ask for it. No Agreed I Resource is in the very general. Okay. I don't know I mean when you read Cheson or you read what the modern synthesis They they like to use a resource in a very general term like the ability to avoid predation. This is part of what I found I mean, no, I'm trying to give the simplest version of this, but yes, I agree with you if if if the primary mediator of Ecological interactions is the consumption of resources then this is this is absolutely temporal inches spatial inches Every every kind of thing that's going on So we're gonna think about these experiments. We're talking about we're trying to mimic steady state and where we're gonna do this of course, there's a Like I said very rich field. I'm giving Some caricature because I want to say even within niche based theories I think these kind of these kind of intuitions are quite quite limited it No, I agree with you. I'm not trying to bet All right, so so again, I Promise you this is really the only equations that are going to be in this talk But the basic idea of MacArthur's consumer resource model is Basically, you have some resources and They're consumed by each species and species have different preferences for different resources and the idea is that your growth rate It's just proportional to how many resources you consume weighted by some energy at minus some minimum cost You need to maintain yourself and the resources themselves can have some dynamics, but importantly, they're depleted from the environment So this is this is just one of the standard models that's been used and what's interesting Is that in the limit where the dynamics of the resources are quite fast? And they don't get eliminated you can show that this reduces exactly to these lot double-terra Equations that Jeff was using. Yes. Oh, yeah, there's tons of things that ignore.  I think that's that's kind of its purpose Right and the important point I want to point out is there's this contact concept of niche overlap Which basically says the more in these kind of models There's purely competition for resources and the basic idea is that the more similar the resources you want to consume are The more you compete with each other All right, so that's what I'll mean niche overlap. I you can assume. I know nothing to a first approximation except for what? Yeah, but I don't I that seems circular to me, but okay, maybe maybe maybe So the way I think every I don't know way the way I've seen it in the literature now I'm just getting scared There was that everything is gonna be wrong But I'll keep on pretending I understand ecology and telling you my interpretation of ecology Which is the physicist jumps in three years ago reads a bunch of papers and synthesizes it probably wrong interpretation of community ecology which is So so I you know There's these kind of Graphical ways to analyze these models that people are really interested in and what they are and the basic point in all this kind of stuff is If you look at it, you know one thing you can look at is the niche overlap here Which is how much things two species compete and so the way they do these things is they basically analyze these models in these Situations where you have one or two species and ask what happens so here, you know This is the kind of kind of phase diagram. I would call it in physics that you can get so here on this x-axis You have niche overlap how much they you know compete for the same resources here You have basically intrinsic fitness differences and the idea is that the bigger the niche overlap is the smaller The region of coexistence right the more similar the fitness of these species have to be so over here Species to exclude species one here species one excludes species two and in particular if the niche overlap is zero That means they occupy independent they consume independent resources so they can always coexist If the niche overlap is one they compete for exactly the same thing and you always have competitive exclusion Right, so this is this is kind of what's going on and there's another version of this I won't tell you which is There's a way to that this picture is exactly the same as that picture But the thing you want to take away is that species must I mean the end goal of all this way people have Summarized is that species must compete with more with other members of its each species than others Right and on another way of saying it is each species must have its own limiting resource so And and I want to emphasize that most of these intuitions when people say things like this They basically analyze these things using two species or two resources. There's very few works I look through everything where you don't have well mixed Things that I could find we want to do this in the large large thing limit so So I want to point out what I think are the limitations of thinking about this way for the current paradigms of microbial community ecology And the first I think is one that's also experimentally true it's not clear that intuitions from few species scale up to complex ecosystems with many species and You can have the emergence of new behaviors and for those of you because there's a diverse crowd There's this one of the great theoretical physicists of the 20th century. Oh, he's still alive Phil Anderson, but wrote this amazing piece in science more is different Which is essentially an essay arguing about emergent properties and the basic idea is the constructionist Hypothesis breaks down and could when confronted with the twin difficulties of scale and complexity the behavior of large and complex Aggregates of elementary particle It turns out is not to be understood in terms of a simple extrapolation of the properties of a few particles Instead at each level of complexity entirely new properties appear and the understanding of the new behaviors requires research Which I think is as fundamental in nature as any other But the basic idea is that you can't understand the whole by understanding taking apart the pieces and then putting them back together And so the question is how much does that hold even in these classical simple dumb model? Which is the MacArthur consumer resource model, right? If I consider many many species and many many resources The second I think important thing is that niche-based models Often focus on a single trophic layer so they think about you know all the herbivores But you know microbes they don't each eat other animals They exchange small molecules that produce and eat them and so niche-based models assume a trophic layer separation That's no longer true in the microbial world. You really have Generically the thing is that you're not eating other microbes You're eating small molecules and I'll try to convince you that completely changes the intuition that we kind of try to implicitly hear it from these things Yeah Okay, but I mean that small molecules diffuse far there Okay in well-mixed cultures, right? So if I grow something in liquid culture, no, I agree with you So the question is how much geography I have nothing to say about geography at the moment Even though I live next to Carol, which is really really depressing, but it's true But yeah, I agree with you.  Yeah, right so viruses are different layer, right? Yeah, no, I agree with you. So it's a viruses and bacteria is a classic trophic layer separation So I'm gonna just go to think about all the bacteria in in a thing. I agree with you Your statements are all correct.  He's really good And so the basic idea now again is that there's actually two regimes where things get simple One is when I consider small number of things But the other thing other place where things get simple is when I have many many degrees of freedom And so what we're gonna try to do is analyze this stupid model not in the limit where I have two species and two Resources, but where I have infinite number of species and infinite number of resources and I fixed the ratio between the two Right and this is what goes by the name of mean field theory in physics But I've been told an ecology mean field theory means something completely different from what it means in physics So I'm not allowed to use that word Okay, someone told us it means something completely different. Okay, so the idea is again, right? This is just drawing from a Gaussian distribution You see eventually everything looks like a Gaussian if I start drawing numbers and that's because I have some kind of Simplicity when n goes to infinity and so the price you pay is you talk about micro macroscopic quantities like pressure and distributions Instead of thinking about individual things. So if I want to describe a gas of particles I can't tell you anything about the position, but I can still tell you about Macroscopic quantities and the question is can we do something like that in ecology? Where I can't tell you anything about any particular species, but I can tell you about macroscopic quantities And so the basic idea is going to be again. We come back To this, you know, you know, you we come back to this kind of thing and we basically draw Consider the case where the number of species and the number of resources is extremely large and then we just draw All the parameters I need lots of parameters So I just draw them from a random distribution and this is something that may introduced already in ecology Almost 40 45 years ago, right? So I'm gonna draw these with random matrices and the hope is that I'm studying typical ecosystems And so in order to understand what's really a result of biology as opposed to what's a result of you know Some very detailed biological interaction and what is a result of just having large diversity Communities we have to understand what you get for free for just having large dynamic, you know diverse communities where everything is drawn randomly and so The quantities that we really turns out we're gonna care about is this kind of growth rate I'm gonna replace this whole thing with a growth rate and what I'm gonna do here is say that the resource has some effective caring capacity So I have some baseline caring capacity that I would have in the absence of all the species and what happens is the presence of these species actually just Changes this to some oh changes this to some other number and the important point for all our observations Is that this growth rate is a sum of many many many terms and this caring capacity Effective caring capacity is also a sum of many many many many terms and so what we can do is We can say the growth rate should actually be well modeled by some Gaussian distribution Because it's a sum of many many many terms and the effective carrying capacity should also be well modeled by some kind of Gaussian Approximation it turns out to be a truncated Gaussian for technical reasons. I'm not gonna tell you about and What we're gonna and for the physicists in the thing This is a two-step cavity method for self-consistency things. It's used in spin glasses and it's been used in Hufffield model and compressed sensing It's actually quite a technical calculation But the basic idea is I take my ecosystem and I throw in a new species and I throw in a new resource And this is an argument that Levin's and MacArthur were running already in the 60s But now you ask self consistently. What's the probability? It's gonna survive and Since every species is the same as every other species in a random ecosystem You can self consistently solve for means variances and things like that And so let me show you what happens what I want to show you is that you draw these kind of coefficients from different distributions so you can draw them from you can draw them from a binomial distribution where the ci alpha the Consumer coefficients are binary. You can draw them from Gaussian distribution And you can run numerical simulations for all these nonlinear PDEs or you can solve these kind of self-consistence Equations and for things like the fraction of species that survive the fraction of resources that survive The mean number of the mean abundance of the resource the mean abundance of the resource the mean abundance of the things Any statistical quantity you can come up with you can actually calculate that analytically which was very surprising to us because these are a bunch of nonlinear PDEs that are coupled and So what we can do Yeah, I mean odys odys odys not linear odys. No, no, I just said the wrong thing All right So, you know, I'm not going to show you all the calculations and technical things But one of the interesting things that you find once in that once you go to a large ecosystem You can generically ask Are the properties of the isolated ecosystem different from when the things are there? And so on the left-hand side what I plotted on the x-axis is the fitness of a bacteria if it was introduced into an ecosystem by itself and on the right and on the y-axis is its final abundance if in the presence of everyone else And what you see is there's some correlation which we can calculate analytically But there's a bunch of stuff. That's high fitness that goes away. There's a bunch of resources that go away There's even things that flip sign And so what you get is generically even though you can say something about the whole ecosystem By thinking about things in isolation Actually, the ecosystem is sufficiently engineered that you can't actually make the correlation you get is about point six Right, so it's true that good things on average do better than good. That's great, right? And Other things do badly and in particular there's things that it turns out that you can you know You can you can have things that have you know that won't survive without the environment that do survive when the environment's there And all these things but all these things about environmental engineering when I was thinking about this got us thinking a little bit more About how we can modify this for the microbial world, right? Because here the only way you can change the external environment is just by depleting resources But imagine how much more dramatic the environment on engineering would be if I also produced small molecules, right? So before Before going on I you know I just wanted to argue that what we did is on a technical level We have a way of doing a statistical mechanics of this MacArthur consumer resource model We can match all these simulations analytically which kind of shocked us and the properties of I said of individuals in isolation can differ Significantly from those in the complex ecosystem and the practical Implication of all this and I'm going to try to convince you is that we always want to build things By characterizing each individual part But maybe they function very different in the whole than they do in the individual and that's true even this dumb model Where the interaction where it's been chosen to minimize the interactions between things, right? This is the best-case scenario for non interacting things so So what I want to do is now talk about how we're extending this to microbial communities and the stars of this kind of thing It are Josh Goldford who's Daniel's student will help me with who did some of the experiment started the initial experiments Has done all the analysis and then see who's sitting somewhere in this thing who's been doing all these experiments in Alvaro's lab And so what we've been now thinking about is You know as I said before there's no clear trophic layer separation bacteria eat small molecules Not each other Not each other's and of course bacteria killing each other also releases small molecules and so what we want to ask is Cross-feeding means microbes construct their own environment and implies we no longer can think of organisms in a fixed external environment And so we have to think about how they change the environment in other things So if this is quote I like the incorporation of the organism as an active subject in its own tonnage And in the construction of his own environment least of a complex dialectical relationship between the elements of the tribe of the gene environment and organism And I think we've always kind of neglected the environment and so even in these models We've kind of neglected the environment and so what we can do is We can just take the original consumer resource model Where everything just competed and just add a simple term that says that when you consume things you also produce things Yeah, absolutely Yeah, I agree, but I think it's impossible to avoid that in the microbial world. Whereas you get out But usually you just focus on our trophic layer, right? That's the way I read the literature No, no, of course the question is is it the okay? The question is can we make a reasonable ecological theory without taking into account environmental engineering? Which a lot of these kind of chase labeled and all these kind of guys they kind of assume fixed environments and and and and and and and so okay my only point okay, I agree with I Don't know philosophically all I can tell you is we took this model We've never seen this done and we just added one little term that says in addition to consuming resources. I can produce resources right and You can just here. I'll just show you simulations, right? So you take you know kind of these things and you put them in a single externally supplied resource and you ask What happens so in the absence of cross feeding if you have a single resource in the environment You get a single species surviving in the presence of cross feeding as soon as you allow cross feeding Generically no matter how you choose the random matrices no matter what you do as long and you enforce some energy balance It seems to be that you can have very complex communities living on a single resource It's a it's a generic it seems to be the norm and not the exception as soon as you even allow a modicum of cross feeding a tiny bit of cross feeding right and more out more over if you you know look at the results the Structure of the community is shaped by the external resource. So for example here what we did is we just for each community We took the co-co Coefficients that it consumes CI alpha weighted by the number of things there and we just did some dimensional reduction And what you see is that resource a kind of clusters here resource be kind of clusters here Resource see kind of clusters here if you look at the consumption rate of the resource You know it kind of you know if you put it in resource see you consume the metagenome It's much more likely to consume see just very obvious stuff But you get these kind of things, right? Yeah, yeah In this thing is just in these resource types. They're all pretty they're just random They're just randomly chosen everything is random. So all that all that's true Is that the species different species have different coefficients for consuming resources? Oh here? Oh, no no here It was if you put it in an environment with resource see then you enrich for things that each see that's it This is just a statement saying that I throw a bunch of species in randomly that some of them will survive that in the surviving species I Am obviously if I'm in environment if I put in resource see I'm enriched for things that have That can eat resource see here. It's saying I here I took all my things and through them Right different communities in three different resources a b and c So each one is a different simulation each each little point in there different species survive in each simulation because because it's all done randomly and then you ask What's the structure and the structure you see is that is That you things group by resource Otherwise the same They're just randomly drawn. I mean there's some distributions. We're drawing everything from it. Yeah, they're all the same everything is the same This is the no model right everything is the same everything is random. How much of biology can it explain? Yeah Okay, so It's a species I can consume resource alpha and produce resource beta. That's what what I added Before you couldn't produce a resource So now I take resource alpha and I produce resource beta and I have to enforce energy I didn't feel like writing the full equation. I have to enforce energy constraints on all these things But it's not that you're just pumping in more energy to the system. No, they're not they're not any different They're not any different No, you just can consume things and produce things and they are the stoichiometric coefficients of how many of alpha do I eat and How many of beta do I produce? That's it. That's all this But then I'm looking for steady states right there's some dynamics associated with this So resources can get depleted resources can get produced and you do this Huh, I don't know. Maybe I can explain to you afterwards material I'm not I'm not quite sure but all I want to tell you that if this is zero then I only get one species surviving And if it's not zero, I generic they get lots of species Alright, so Alvaro is going to tell you all about these experiments And then she has a poster that you should go see but you can ask, you know the The claim should be that our known models shouldn't be that it's really hard to get coexistence on a single resource But it should be really really easy if there's cross feeding and so you you know They did these experiments that they'll tell you much more about but they basically isolated this leaf and soil samples all around Boston New Haven You basically passage them for 14 days hunt 80 to 160 generations Grow them on many many many many carbon sources. This is the list single carbon resource things Alvaro again, and she will tell you much more and you can ask what happens and I'm not going to dwell on this data But what you should see is that all these things have lots and lots of color in them And that means that generically what you have here are some sugar sources Here you have some relative abundances and what you see is it's indeed true that generically in these communities that you isolate You grow them on a single carbon source in M9 media and You do get generic coexistence. It just seems to be generically true Right and Alvaro will show you all of the experiments Nancy's poster has all the little things checking everything and all that stuff I don't feel comfortable, but the one piece of other data. I'll show you is Now you can just basically take we do 16 s sequencing so that we don't have a true metagenome But we can use this essentially this pie crust program But any other version of this where you take the 16 s map it to a species ask what genes it has in it And so this is essentially some proxy for the metagenome and you can ask what happens You can do some dimensional reduction on it and you see indeed again the metagenome segregates by What resource you put in so all the glucose communities here These are eight, you know eight many many communities from many many different places They all go here all the citrate communities go here, you know all the leucine communities go here and indeed you're enriched You know in a community where you're in you know in leucine You're in drip, you know you're enriched for leucine degradation and it's exactly like our model that actually had no biology in it at all Right that was just drawn randomly Everything was drawn randomly so you could make a very deep biological story of what what's going on this interaction that interaction But you seem to get this kind of structure for free in large communities Right at least that's you know all the provocative stuff is my ideas I'll rose probably gonna get up here tomorrow and tell you that I'm full of you know I'm completely wrong, but that that's my take on how I interpret his interpret their data, right? And so What I want to tell you I mean I'm out of time and this is what I wanted to tell you is that you could take this Classical model from community ecology the consumer resource module Which would tell you that it should be very hard to get coexistence you put a little bit of cross-feeding in Any small amount and what it tells you is that actually no no no coexistence is completely generic and so and It leads to qualitatively different behaviors and the reason is that in this cross-feeding model You can't separate out the organism from the environment you're taking into You're generically incorporated the idea that the or you can't talk about organisms without the fact that change the environment they live in and So you know one way of summarizing this is bacteria construct their own niches and need to think about the environment and species Together on equal footing and we actually have a much more if you're interested in ecology It's very a rich place We have way of putting thermodynamics into all these models so we can ask if I put a total amount of energy into this Models what can happen? We have intriguing results that suggest that thermodynamic efficiency that you can partially order steady states based on thermodynamic efficiency There's tons of stuff you can do with these things and they're all with random models Right, so there's a lot of structure that emerges when you consider large models even when you choose everything randomly and That's something you know we should kind of know so here are the acknowledgments you know and So Madhu Advani helped me with this first part, which is this technical cavity calculation Josh and Nancy who's over here, and you should really talk to did You know the second part of the project is really theirs Alva is going to tell you all about this tomorrow and Carol helped us make the model better I wrote a really crappy version of this model and Carol fix it for us Daniel as always Is is one of the most artistic and interesting people to have as a colleague it's a real pleasure and these people gave me a lot of money Thank you very much


मैं सथायी । ध़ीमगally रग़ जयन ततूसी वेक्रे हो, नु antis ऌती ख़ फंजजार pertaining to BBC kilometres �işी ठें गड़ी मिडबाbart कमाने की सऩlly प version of Jaland eBay सत्लग़ कенить ड़ीख सित छानor इक joy nayak, jumpy trip which is happening. यहुन के नहन 은SMस still blue moon is지가। अगर हा afresh, एक प championships are beingwear ceks ्pulsz reception  proof  CHARICAL րาย resemble ʻal photography plan for theremos ствен Ralve ən  자신 沒十 死  還有 番 折  Wikipedia  spectator current  Shirini Parve aggerabASS associative 人間  普遍 irl гарrabrence  passion.  fillเจo. gold coins gold coins party  enem                                                                              underwear planner జరరికఙనిపాలిసి, పరిచిలుటిలిండిโ кожâteంమ్పి సదరింరి ల్ఖటంగరో. వికాకిండ వి చింనదాగగ. పని  finance and development for these countries. mantisísa hospital, Iím seeing a hospital, had also gone after that when the driver opened an illegal sexualregularisement a DMC was on him sugar mill sir car when the dealer gave number ofneo 3 there heMarkh dal by driver


Hey, what's going on everybody? How you doing? Welcome. Welcome Russell Moore coming to you live with dedicated to financial Literacy. Hey, I'm here. I'm back. I'm back. Hey two consecutive videos in a row. Aren't you proud of me? Definitely back. Okay. I Thought about a couple of things after I did the last video I said, you know what I need to probably because this channel is geared towards newbies new investors So a lot of times we throw out terms and assuming that the new investors know what you're saying But I remember when I was a new investor I remember I just started in the stock market years ago and these terms would come out especially on CNBC And I'm like, what are they talking about? And I just wish someone would break it down now I do have a video. I think I'll try to link it out Link it in this video. I do have a video that I did in 2020. That's specifically Specifically deals with terms Terminology for the stock market. I think you should check it out. It's a really good Especially if you're new to the market But what I'm gonna do since we're in a downtrend or the market is going down right now We're gonna pull back our correction I'm gonna be talking about more terms at the beginning of my video. Just give me you three or four terms of A bit of a bear market or a downtrend Okay, and then if the market goes up, I'll do terms that reflect going up. All right. How about that? Okay, so I'm just gonna so I'm gonna go quickly over that and then what I'm gonna do is I'm gonna give you four things Four things today. That's it and I'm gonna be out of here. I'm gonna talk about the NASDAQ Just particularly that word that index the NASDAQ composite index and then I'm gonna talk about CPI for a few minutes and then we're gonna talk about earnings it's earning season and Lastly investment sentiment and I felt I really felt I want to talk about that a little bit I'm not gonna talk about it long, but a lot of people are Being moved and they're investing based on sentiment Now, it's made I have to say it's more than sentiment at this moment at this point But we got a lot of retail investors that are jumping ship because they're like, oh, we're going down.  And you're you're afraid and you're afraid to leave You're afraid to just to hang in there and keep your stocks hold on to them and even be as bold as I am to add to your position during this kind kind of a market Then I would I would suggest it and let me say I'm not giving you advice. That's my disclosure I'm not gonna tell you what stocks to purchase. I'm not gonna do that I'm not a financial planner or financial expert. I am not I just am a guy that has been in the market for several years I've had some success Granted I've had some success in the market and I've lost in the market And so but I've learned a ton and so all I'm trying to do is anyone that's new to the market is thinking about investing in stocks I want to give you as much knowledge as I possibly can But I also discussed to just getting out of debt Man right now We're everyone saying we're heading for a recession at a strong recession in 2023 folks. We're in a recession I've been saying that for over six eight months. We're in a recession right now It's a soft recession and it's a recession in certain sectors of certain areas. It hasn't totally hit the consumer yet It will though Here's when you know that it's hit us as we hit the retailer When the layoffs begin when layoffs begin to increase and unemployment goes up to unemployment right now is at around 3.7 once it gets past 4% to 5% Look out look out Consumer recession. Okay, so um, and I believe that's gonna happen towards the first second quarter of 2023 All right, you'll start seeing a pickup in After Christmas a lot of especially retailers and anything anyone that has to do with so many Sectors are dealing with consumer staples and all that they're gonna need extra help for the holidays, but after the holidays Bye-bye So here's my advice to those that are out there and you're employed do a great job So when the when the layoffs do come and I'm not laughing when the layoffs do come They're gonna keep the most valuable productive employees So if you're showing up late Calling in all the time especially during the holidays everybody's partying and drinking and doing your thing if you're not showing up And you're in you're late And you're not being productive on that job You might be the first to go don't be the first to go And don't go at all Be so productive that they say wow that person does the work of two to three people We need them they're valuable make yourself valuable during the season, okay I'm not saying it will totally you will totally avoid Being laid off, but there's a great chance. They'll keep you around Okay, and even if you do leave your reference would be amazing for your next position All right. That's I thought I'd throw that in for free. Okay. All right. Let me give you a few of the terms Right now. We're in a downtrend. What does it mean down trend? Most technical analysts will use that term trend a trend when the market is going on a certain direction It's trending. So there's a certain trend that it's going down. It's it's heading in so whenever you hear the term down Trend the market is heading down. It's trending down. It seems to be the the majority the majority of That the majority of stock owners are selling So we what's happening and there's a increase in selling So it's heading down. It's trending down. Got it and give you an example Remember when I was a kid Levi's were like there was a season where Levi's were trending Everybody was wearing and Levi's in Chuck Smith's converse And it was a trend There was an increase in Levi's being purchased and In converse being purchased then there was the Nike trend. I don't know if that's ever died You know Michael Jordan. There was a trend A rush a herd of people begin to buy Michael Jordan's When you have a downtrend you have our herd of people selling off Okay So you might hear the word correction a correction Is literally Where the market drops back or it's called a pullback So it's been going up and then it'll correct. It'll drop down Doesn't necessarily mean that it's a crash In order for it to be a crash And let's use that term the word crash where you see here the word market is crashing You you're you're only you're mainly talking about below 20 When the market is when the market is dropped 20 or below You're pretty much in a what's called a bear market Or it's crashing Okay, I want to use the term crash though lightly because Crash is a little bit more significant. I'll even say go down to 30 30 to 40 percent, but So we'll just say a bear market is when that market drops 20 percent or below Okay, that's it. I'm just going to give you those few terms Okay bear downtrend Uh pullback correction. So whenever you hear that the market is going back. It's going down Okay. All right. So that's it for today. All right now. Let's get to what I'm going to talk about today and that is um nasdaq cpi earnings and investor sentiment nasdaq composite index It's it's really comprised of mostly tech stocks Okay, but let me give you an example of a tech stock microsoft google amazon meta or facebook we call we probably previously called it. Um Did I say amazon? I don't know if I said amazon tech stocks Okay Nvidia amd nasdaq All right now Here's the thing about the nasdaq The market would freak out if it's if it saw that the nasdaq in one year dropped 20 percent The market would be like what the nasdaq dropped 20 percent. Wow, you know, that would be a big thing But let me tell you something In the last two months the nasdaq has dropped 20 percent in two months not a year Gang that's that's no joke. We are definitely we are definitely if we're not crashing We're definitely in a bear market We're definitely in a bear market bear bull up bear down talking to my newbies out there Okay, bull means up. It's going up bear means down. All right, so Can now if you can just see the significance of that 20 percent annually a drop 20 percent is it's would be Absolutely, absolutely wild We've we dropped 20 percent in two months And let me give you an example of the stocks that nasdaq is comprised of about a hundred companies Let me give you some of the companies that have dropped and how much they've dropped. Okay. Are you ready? Okay In two months Metta facebook has dropped 20 percent 20 tesla In two months has dropped Has went down their stock 30 percent about 30 percent Shopify 33 percent amd Advanced micro oh my god devices advanced micro devices This semi conductor sector AMD has dropped 42 percent in two months I think it's somewhere around 53 dollars 58 dollars AMD hasn't been that low in several years 50, I mean, that's a buy. I'm talking buy buy buy buy buy buy As Jim Kramer says buy buy buy buy buy buy In video 40 percent it has dropped In video another semiconductor when I need semiconductor. Let me okay newbies chip stocks selling chips chips are in everything I did have my last video talked about chips that are gonna talk about that anymore now get this for all you iphone lovers ipad 20 percent in two months. It's dropped Wow You guys the nasdaq has dropped Okay One day I will in the future. I'll do s and p 500 and I'll also do the dow But that should tell you something on where we are with the market The nasdaq has dropped 20 percent Now let's talk about the cpi for a second cpi. What is cpi newbies? consumer price index It's the report is coming out tomorrow for I believe I believe it's uh september August we were at 8.3 percent 8.8.3 8.1 There's a core cpi and that which excludes um Food and energy It doesn't have it doesn't talk about Food and energy in that index at all um, but the cpi consumer price index Tells us a lot and it's coming out tomorrow thursday Well, it should be today now. It's 1 30 in the morning. So it's it's today later today Around 12 30 probably about 10 30 uh pacific time 10 30 9 30 pacific time The cpi is going to tell us a lot and it gravely affects the market um because Jerome how the federal reserve they're looking at those numbers to see If inflation are they making a dent on inflation? Remember the goal for the federal reserve is to get inflation down to 2% 2% can you imagine get it down to two? That's not going to happen this year I don't even think it's going to happen next year if I think at At best at best next year. It'll get to maybe for The lowest four to five percent They're not really doing doing much against inflation. They're not winning They're not winning against inflation A lot of those companies out there are not budging. They're not dropping their prices The only thing that's probably being affected is the housing market Because the consumer has more control They're putting depression on by not going out and buying by not going out there and putting out and applying for mortgage loans because What did we talk about yesterday? The housing prices are at the the mortgage rates are at 7% and what did I say? I said this about six or eight months ago I'm not bragging. I'm not I'm not a prophet I said by the end of the year, we would be at 8% That the mortgage rate would get to 8% we're at 7.4 right now That's almost seven and a half percent and in some cases. So I've Anticipate by the end of by the end of this month. November will be at 8% Just as I said But I believe it'll drop towards the beginning of next year. Maybe the second quarter into the first quarter will begin to see Some softening of those rates. Okay, so um, but the cpi is coming out tomorrow pay attention to that I think it's going to be above 8.3 I We're hoping that it'll drop That means there's a good chance that we can start seeing some deflation Prices are being dropped. I'm very interested to see the the auto industry And the numbers for the auto industry housing we Gas is back up again Okay, but we may not see those numbers for september It's probably going to affect more october numbers for the cpi. Okay, so that's the cpi and then our earnings Earnings pretty much is kicking off tomorrow. I mean it started already softly But the banks aren't friday. So all the a lot of the banks jp morgan I think wells fargo city bank. I think they're going to give their earnings report um, basically quarterly For you newbies out there Earning season is basically companies talking about their financials Did they make money? I'm just going to keep it very practical and simple Did we make money? Did we lose money that quarter for the last previous three months? Did we lose money and did we did we lose money or did we make money? And if we did lose money, what were some of the reasons why we lost money was a supply chain issues Did we have a hard time getting things from overseas? Uh, it's just customers people just aren't purchasing. They aren't buying. They're pulling back So we'll find out. Uh, so the earnings seasons will say a lot because it's telling us what these companies are doing It's telling us what the consumer is doing Are we are are we spending? And I really believe that people are pulling back from spending What will that do it will force all of these companies begin to drop their prices So if you're looking to get furniture wait Don't buy any new furniture yet Why go to ashleys and buy furniture? Oh, that that was a that was a shot at ashleys Wait the prices will come down Wait for your home Prices will come down So because sentiment now people are going to begin to pull back and say i'm going to wait I'm going to wait to let prices go down. So now it's less purchasing is going on So earnings to drop Okay, so we're going to pay please pay attention There's a there's a pretty good site that I rely on it's called earnings whisper son On on twitter earnings whisper And it'll give you all the earnings for all the different stocks each day It actually you can look out a week ahead and it'll tell you each day Which companies are reporting their earnings? All right, that's earnings whisper on twitter All right, let me just go over it before I go into sentiment before I talk about investor sentiment I want to mention The earnings for a few companies major companies tomorrow For the sector the the chip sector, which is i'm really been paying attention to Many of those stocks have dropped. I mentioned earlier You know AMD AMD has dropped 42% Nvidia 40% major chip stock companies Okay, 40% and I think they're not done dropping But they're going to be great buys In the next month or so they will be great buys Okay, so keep your eye on that. I'm not telling you I'm not telling you to invest in them But you want to keep your eye on them do your research on those companies They're good solid companies. They're not going anywhere. Okay, but tsmc reports tomorrow before the open Before the open So if you're listening to this video, you're probably too late To get a stock option, but I believe they're gonna make they're gonna have great numbers tomorrow I really believe that I believe they've done. They're gonna have a great second third quarter I believe it's third quarter reports earnings reports tomorrow. Yeah. Yeah third quarter So I believe they're gonna have great numbers and they're gonna get a bump I could be wrong. I could be wrong The bump won't last we're still in a bear market. Remember down trending. Okay, but it will be a good opportunity to make a good profit for a day or two You know, and then we'll see we'll see depending on the numbers. It could keep trending up We don't know when the bottom what I mean by the bottom when that When the bear market will end and start heading back up. So when you hear that term Nobody knows when the bottom is that means the bottom of the bear the bottom of the downtrend The bottom of the crash At one point it reaches a bottom and starts heading back up. Okay, another company that's giving their earnings report tomorrow is delta Delta airlines, I don't think the airlines is doing that. Well, I won't be looking to purchase anything black rock I think under um money cash under under uh, they I think I know black rock Probably assets under management. I think they have exceeded everyone Billions and billions billions of dollars basically they're uh, they're they're uh an institutional investor They just own a lot. They're a hedge. They're a fund a huge fund and They report tomorrow dominoes reports tomorrow and a few others that I'm not going to mention So, uh, but look out for them. You might we might get a bump Uh, I'm interested to see what black rock is Because they purchase a lot of homes So I want to see in fact, I want to hear their actual earnings report So I'll listen to them. I'll listen to tsmc I'll make sure that I listen to them and really you guys all you got to do is go to their websites If you want to hear the earnings report if you want to hear the earnings conference call go to their website under investor relations And a lot of times they'll have the recording even if you don't make it when it when it happens I believe black rock is reporting after the market close. I don't think they're doing it before but tsmc that by the way tsmc is uh, taiwan Semiconductor manufacturing company. So, um, they report before the open.  I've already purchased some Um, um, hey, let's go. Let's go. Let's go All right, so I think that'll be it. Oh investor sentiment. I didn't touch on that real quickly. I'll say this about investor sentiment People begin to get sentimental And they begin to follow the crowd And it's like if everybody's saying the market is going down that I'm going to follow the crowd and I'm going to get out It's my sentiment. It's not based on Fundamentals it's not based on technical analysis. It's has nothing to do with research It's about a feeling If you go by your feelings when it comes to the stock market, you're going to be in trouble Every time I've just I'm not saying that you won't have a a feeling at times I'm not saying that you won't have a feeling and a different feeling of a direction But most of the time you want to look at the facts If a company is doing well, it may drop for a season, but it's coming back And when it drops you want to buy on the dip You want to purchase on the dip? Um, now when that dip is for you, you've got to determine that I can't tell you that But um, so let me give you the sentiment right now as a whole 55 of people that are investing in the stock market believe it is totally bearish They're totally bearish on it. They don't want to purchase any stocks. Most people are like, I'm not buying anything That are in that category 54 55 percent 23 percent are bullish And 21 percent is neutral So that's market sentiment right now 55 percent of the people out there are saying We're bearish. We're bearish. I'm not buying. I'm selling And then you have 23 that are saying I'm buying the dip This is a golden opportunity for me And then 21 are just undecided. They're neutral. They're like, I don't know whether to buy or not You better be decisive If you're neutral, you're not gonna make any money during this season. Okay Because even if you're Even if you're bullish if you're bullish, you'll be buying right now on the dip If you're bearish, you'll be shorting or you know Buying your puts Not selling buying puts Put options talk about that later. Anyway, I want to thank you guys I know this was longer than I expected But I want to I want to say hey keep going hanging there. Keep the faith keep speaking it forth God is on your side. He's on your side Have a wonderful day. Bye. Bye