Hi friends, welcome back to my channel and welcome if you're new here. My name is Jen I'm a certified weight loss and nutrition coach and I'm on the WW aka Weight Watchers blue plan today. We are making by 20 21 vision board. I did this last year I hung it right above the desk in my office and it really inspired me to stay on track and stick with my goals For the year of 2020 and we know 2020 was not a good year, but I was still able to accomplish a lot of the goals that I put on my vision board I really liked having them front and center when I'm sitting in my office Which is a lot of the day working away. My goals are right there in front of me So I decided that I wanted to create a new glorious vision board for 2021 So I'm going to take you guys along with me to do the shopping for the vision board We're going to put it together We'll go over the goals on the vision board and you'll get to see exactly what I picked theme wise color wise for this year's board So if you're excited for today's video, please give it a big thumbs up It means a lot to me really helps out my channel and lets me know to keep putting out this type of content for you And if you are new to my channel or you're watching but you're not subscribed and there's a lot of you Please take a moment and join my channel and hit the little subscribe button and of course the bell next to it So you're notified when new videos are uploaded. I would love to have you be part of my community We're a pretty fun place to be also make sure you're checking out the description box down below where you're going to find my Custom 2021 calendar all about healthy lifestyle Fitness self-care weight loss and setting some monthly goals So definitely check that out and pick one up to start your 2021 off right You'll also find my nutrition coaching options such as macro and calorie calculation personalized to you Another great thing to have in your back pocket starting the new year 30 and 60 minute coaching sessions are also available So check that out on Jen Clayton nutrition dot com You'll also find links discount codes to my favorite things and of course my Facebook group down in the description box We would absolutely love to have you join our community of 17,000 plus members It's a wonderful warm supportive safe place to be so head on over and join us So we have a vision board to make we have some shopping to do and I'm pretty darn excited. So let's get started All right, we're off to the Dollar Tree But before we go shopping for vision board supplies, I think this warrants a trip to Starbucks I haven't had lunch yet.  Can I get the Nitro cold brew with sweet cream in a grande? Yeah, I got a nitro sweet cream. Yes, and a spinach and feta rat, please We have a nitro sweet cream cold brew and some egg bites I'm gonna eat really quick and then we'll head in to do some shopping Sitting on the front porch sipping on the rocks it was in our beverages It was in our beverages Show me the good sides. Oh, it's pretty smiles to cover in our faces.   Is this not gen fashion these pink glittery letters do not have any numbers So I needed numbers for 2021 and basically all I'm going to use these four is probably the word goals But I'm not quite sure yet So I did pick up these black numbers as well for the 2021 And then for the border of my vision board in the teacher section Was this bright pink border and I thought that would be really cute to go around the edge here of the poster board And then I found these silver letter stickers and I thought I could use these to title my goal Either in the word bubble underneath or above the word bubble And then I could write exactly what my goal is inside But I thought these really pretty mirrored letter stickers would be great And then for some decoration I decided to go with these butterflies these butterflies are mirrored like these mirrored stickers And the reason I chose a butterfly is because a butterfly represents growth It starts as a moth and it grows into a beautiful butterfly. And that's what my hope is for 2021 Let's make it a better year Let's grow in a lot of areas in my life not just weight loss but in life in general So I decided to decorate this year's vision board with these butterflies So let's get started and see if we can make my vision of my vision board come to life 2021 vision board is done. I'm really really happy with how it turned out. I wanted something a little More simple than last year and I really wanted to bring in pink, which is my favorite color So I'm really excited for this. I have some great goals for 2021 Let me share with you what I'm doing for 2021 So I went ahead and numbered my goals goal number one is to lose 50 pounds. That was my goal last year I have lost 50 pounds but not in 2020 So this year I'd like to lose 50 pounds in 2021 Which will put me pretty close to my goal or where I want to be So 50 plus pounds is my 2021 goal number two has to be a youtube goal because I am here for growing my channel This has been such a great opportunity for me to have this as a job So I'd like to make it even more of a permanent job and grow my subscriber count to 40 000 or more Why not really really reach for the stars number three is a self-care goal? I want to be able to do some type of self-care three times per week This could be anything from having a hot cup of tea at night Or giving myself a facial or using a face mask or painting my nails Just really anything that involves just taking extra good care of myself a minimum of three times a week Goal number four is a gallon of water I've been doing this the last few months and my skin my body my hair everything is just so much better Drinking a gallon of water. So I want to bring that into 2021 and continue with a gallon or more of water every day Goal number five is to track every day Now I didn't give myself a goal to stay within my points or calories every day because that's not really doable There are days that I'm going to go above points or calories So I'm committing to myself to track my food every day good bad or ugly Number six is an activity goal. I would like to continue working out at jazz or size A minimum of three times a week once gyms reopen here I'm going to shoot for more than three times a week But a minimum of intentional activity three times per week goal number seven is a real estate goal I had the goal of selling 12 houses in 2020. I didn't quite reach that goal But I am going to have a real estate goal in 2021 just a little more doable and shoot for eight houses sold In 2021. I really think I can do it you guys and goal number eight My last goal for the new year is to weigh in every single week No skipping a week because I think I might gain Actually weighing in legitimately every single week And of course that goes with filming my weigh in video for you that I post every single friday So my motto for 2021 is no Excuse there is no excuse that I can't reach these goals to admit. She looks pretty good in my office You can see she's on my desk in my office. So she's at a visual site for me every single day I'm pretty proud of how it turned out and again, you can do this really inexpensively less than 10 Dollars from Dollar Tree. So let's recap my 2020 goals I'll let you guys know if I reach the goals and kind of how I feel as far as my achievements for said goals for 2020 so my goal number one was to lose 50 pounds as you know, I've lost actually 51 pounds But that was between 2019 and 2020 I actually lost about 15 pounds in the year of 2019 Which means that in 2020 I lost 35 pounds So not quite my 50 pounds, but I'll take it 30 pounds or 35 pounds in one year is excellent Goal number two was to track honestly. I would say that I did this maybe 60 of the time I definitely could have done better when it comes to honestly tracking and it wasn't that I was dishonestly tracking It was more that I wasn't tracking at all. Goal number three was to work out three times a week I achieved this for the majority of the year I would say out 10 out of 12 months of the year I committed to this goal and stuck with this goal of working out three times a week now in december In the pandemic it didn't quite go as planned But I still got in a decent amount of working out throughout the year Goal number four was to have four rollover points every day. I actually x-naed this goal mid 2019 Just because it was important for me to reach my calories and in order for me to do that I could not have rollover points next goal was 30 000 subscribers and I am happy Thrilled elated to announce that two days before the end of 2020. I hit my goal of 30 000 subscribers here on youtube Which makes me so happy. So thank you so much to every single one of my subscribers The next goal was to sell 12 houses. Unfortunately. I didn't reach this goal But fortunately I sold eight houses in 2020 and let's be honest with the pandemic The real estate market slowed down a little bit in my area and I still managed to squeak out eight houses Which is amazing. My next goal was 52 weigh-ins and tada. I reached this goal I filmed 52 weigh-in videos in 2020 and I weighed in every single week for the entire year Which in my opinion is a huge accomplishment and my last goal for 2020 was to post my weight tracker So I was posting a weight tracker on instagram every month Again, I didn't quite reach this goal. I think I stopped posting my tracker in about november Not because I wasn't losing weight But just because I got really busy and life got away from me and I just pretty much stopped posting my tracker So I decided not to make this a goal for 2021 yet something that I would like to achieve Also in 2021. Thank you for joining me on this year's 20 21 vision board video I hope that you like seeing how I put my vision board together Going over those goals and maybe gave you a little bit of inspiration to create a vision board of your own If you do make sure that you tag me whether that's on instagram Facebook or even comment on my youtube videos letting me know how your vision board turned out How I recommend the dollar tree they pretty much have everything you need and you can't beat $7 to complete an entire vision board. So if you enjoyed today's video Please give it a thumbs up and of course if you're new or not yet subscribed join my community I have tons of great content coming your way for 2021 Check out that description box for that custom calendar nutrition coaching Links and discount codes to my favorite things and of course head on over and join us on my facebook group Thank you guys so much for watching. I'll see you in my next video. Bye


In your own photographs, I want you to try and just remember, take things for yourself because they please you first and foremost. Don't photograph specific genres just because it seems like everybody else is is doing it. Just try out new things. Try and photograph things because they interest you. If something doesn't interest you, don't feel that you have to photograph it just because everybody else does. Photograph what you find interesting. The joy of photography for me really is seeing things that other people can't be and it gives me pleasure to be able to sit somewhere like an airport terminal in DC, twiddling my thumbs, waiting for a connection and to be able to wander around with my phone just taking interesting photographs while other people have their heads buried in a screen.


With all this talk about viruses and germs and washing your hands How come they're not doing more about it in the simplest and easiest of ways? Hey there njbrew22.com here with a quick kind of like general interest and health vlog Today it's about germs and viruses. It's gonna be really quick here You know they tell everybody to wash their hands.  Is that the right word profoundly? I Mean they have UV machines to sterilize Like razors and all sorts of scissors and things for beauty salons And when they're working on your hands at the manicure shop, whatever. It's called nail salon And I saw this hand dryer, right? I'm like, this is this is so simple How come every bar restaurant doctor's office and the doctor's office doesn't have it like these things should be in every single solitary public bathroom Everywhere like I don't what maybe Trump can make it a Federal law so you know we need UV hand dryers in every single public bath and make it happen right now and make them made in The USA somewhere. Maybe I should research who makes these things and buy some stock in them today But but you know that's one thing and the other thing is like why don't bathroom doors? Like I've seen these bathrooms. I don't know who designs these bathrooms, but you know you can push in to You have to push in to go in the bathroom and then you have to open the goddamn handle Well, it takes is one sloppy dirty scumbag to not wash their hands After using the toilet and then on most people smart people will use a rag or a napkin or towel to open the door I mean I like bathrooms where I can kick the door open with my foot wouldn't that make sense You know you I don't care about how dirty I get going in although if you touch your privates You know after touching the handle that that can also cause its own set of problems, but they should have Some bathrooms.  Oh By the way, please hit the like and subscribe and I'll see you next video


T. F. N. News update. Good afternoon folks, Steve Rhodes coming to you live from the shores of sunny Delray Beach, Florida. This is your 1 p.m. update and currently we have all the U.S. Indices that we track trade into the upside. Dow's up 105, three tenths percent, seven tenths for the S&P that's 26 points, one of three tenths for the Nasdaq 100, 147 points, Russell's up 1%, 16 points trade out of 17, 24, gold's up 7 bucks, Silver's up 50, Penny's likes we crew to straighten back a buck 68, 117, 24 is the print there, natural gas up 43 cents, the 30 Treasury is up almost one point, trade out at 13208. Let's take a look at our nine panel, market update chart, we begin in the upper left-hand corner, you got the E.S. Minning. E.S. Minning although it's not shown here, it's in an A to B equal CD to downside, we all took a look at that yesterday, hopefully you joined in there. And so if we did get a bullish reversal candle today, it would signal a buy the D point pattern with first bounce perhaps taking us up to the 3887 level. We take a look at the spot follow totics, it is trading lower, that's to be expected with the S&P up, and price right now is back below, it's inside, it's bolder to ban reading. If it closes underneath the 3134 level today, that's going to be a suggestion to you and I that price should make its way back to the 50-day exponential moving average currently put in 2745, and that then would or should create a rally inside the S&P. The NASDAQ, the NQ is attempting to form a new profile, this happened for us, not to us, it happened just as we were coming on the air. The bottom of that profile, so this tells us now may not form, although it's likely to form, but it's still, we really won't know until the end of the trading session today, but right now I can tell you that buyers are lined up at 11396, and sellers are lined up at 11716 out there. So not really a wide range, but that's where the buyers and sellers are lined up inside of the NQ. US dollar index is trading above the top of its weekly profile, that's suggesting west to head to the 126 level. Gold has found support at the bottom of its daily profile, that's 181380. New profile attempting to form inside of silver with support at 2101, resistance 2239. We take a look at the lights we accrued yesterday was a confirmed rogement and indicator top out there, that suggests to move lower because this is a bearish structured profile, which only lasts for another day out here. Price should move back to about the 11241 level. Folks, stay tuned for the Trader Zed Show, but if you're off to start your Wednesday, have a wonderful one, and we look forward to seeing you again soon. Take care.


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Great. Good morning. Why don't we go ahead and get started then and welcome. I'm pleased to announce that we have at least a little bit of refreshment out here for the morning and the afternoon. I assure you that no federal statutes were broken in the making of this workshop. So I thought it might be worth starting by just repeating the the recommendations from the data aggregation workshop since it was mentioned several times yesterday and so just in case you hadn't had a chance to take a look at those. And many thanks to Lisa Brooks and that group for putting these together so quickly. So the first thing we heard this again last night was to deposit almost, it's not almost deposit, but deposit almost all of sequence exposure phenotype data sets into a central database, recognizing that there may be some really valuable and very sensitive data sets that couldn't go into a central database, but those would have to be, you know, quite unusual and extraordinary. I'll limit almost all the future sequencing phenotype data sets to participants who consent to broad use, again, something we discussed last evening. Public release of summary statistics should be a default approach. So variant names, allele frequencies, and odds ratio should be something that is done unless there's a really good reason not to. Data access for DBGAP should be streamlined, including registered users, basically registering a user to have broad access to a number of data sets rather than having to get individual access for each data set. There should be new governance procedures for the central database, including public disclosure and participation, accountability, and a description of penalties and people who have been penalized. There should be central processing of sequence data, and that should be encouraged. Analysis of aggregate data sets should also be supported. And retrospective harmonization is encouraged, and those efforts should be captured. Future projects should include harmonization as part of the application, the funding, and data sharing. I would note that almost all of these recommendations were covered by Peter, even though he hadn't been at the workshop. So we didn't need to have the workshop. We should have just asked you. So that's it for those. Any questions or comments on those? Okay. Great. Eric.


In this video I'm going to talk about compressing horizontal, so what I'm going to do is I'm going to take a function, so we have a little function here, and we're going to compress this thing horizontally. We're going to perform a horizontal compression of this function by a factor of one-half, so we're going to take this and kind of reduce it by one-half, but we're only going to reduce it horizontally by one-half. Okay, now with any sort of function, if I want to do any sort of compressing or stretching or translating or anything like that, I need to have a couple of points. So a couple of points that I'm going to use is zero negative two, I'm also going to use this point here, which is one-zero, and I'm also going to use this point, let's see this is a good point over here, which is three-two, okay, so there's a couple of points I'm going to use.  So basically what's going to happen is I'm going to take these points and I'm going to modify them somehow. Now how am I going to modify them? Well this is horizontal compression, when we talk about the horizon, we talk about the x-axis, and that's telling us we're going to do something with our x-coordinates, horizontal x-axis, x-coordinates, okay, so we're going to take these x-coordinates, the three, the zero, and the negative one, and we're going to compress them by a factor of one-half. So we're actually going to take this point, three-two, and we're going to compress it by one-half, we're going to compress it by one-half. Now notice we're only going to change the x-coordinates, again horizontal compression, horizontal, which is left and right, which is the x-axis, which is my x-coordinate, so I'm only going to affect my x-coordinates by a factor of one-half, I'm going to multiply them by one-half. That's going to change this to one-point-five-two, so this half of three is one-and-a-half. So that's my new point that I'm going to use, okay, so zero negative two is my next point, what I'm going to do is I'm going to compress this by one-half, which is nice because zero times one-half doesn't change anything at all, so that point actually, that point there actually stays the same as zero negative two, kind of nice, okay, and then this one over here, the last one is negative one-zero, okay, so if I compress that by one-half, I'm going to multiply by one-half, multiply one by one-half, excuse me, zero there, and what's going to happen is half of negative one is a negative point five, negative point five, okay, now notice that the y-coordinates didn't change at all, y-coordinates didn't change, it's only the x-coordinates because this is a horizontal compression, horizontal, which is your x-axis, which is your x-coordinates, so we're only affecting the x-coordinates, so now I'm going to take these new points, I'm going to put them on the graph and see what this looks like when I compress this horizontally, all right, so one point five, so one and then point five and then two, one, two, okay, all right, then we also have zero, zero negative two, so it looks like that one stays right there, and then we also have negative one-half zero, so that's my new point right there, okay, so it looks like my new function is going to look a little bit like this, straight line there, and a curve there, all right, so that's what it looks like, and we can tell, we can tell that this has been compressed, we are squeezing in, squeezing in, squeezing in this function, okay, so that's one way to compress horizontal, we are squeezing, squeezing in this function, okay, and by squeezing in the function, in general, what have we done? We have taken the x, y-coordinates, we have modified them somehow, but in this case we have only, we have only, let's use a variable, we've only affected the x-coordinates, we've only affected the x-coordinates by a factor of A, in this case the A is one-half, a factor of one-half, so a little bit different this time, these numbers are getting smaller instead of getting bigger as opposed to the stretching that we did in previous video, all right, so that is compressing horizontal, that is compressing horizontal, so now you can well imagine that next we have compressing vertically, compressing vertically, okay, so what we're going to do is we're actually going to make this shorter, so that's what we're doing here, we're going to make this shorter, shorter is one way we can, we can use to describe what we're about to do, so the first thing I need to do is I need a couple of points, so this point is going to be 0, negative 2, I'm going to use the same points I did last time, this is going to be 3, 2, there's another point, and then this point over here is going to be negative 1, 0, negative 1, 0, all right, so we are compressing vertically, compressing vertically, now again when we think vertical, we think of the y-axis, the y-axis and the y-coordinates, so we're only going to affect the y-coordinates, so we're going to take our points, we're going to take our points and we're going to change them, but we're only going to change the y-coordinates, so notice this time that we're going to take the y-coordinate and we're going to multiply by one-half, but only the y-coordinate, only the y-coordinate, so this is going to be 3, 1, so that's going to be one of our new points. Now again, compression vertically, compression vertically, vertical is your y-axis, y-axis and the y-coordinates. So notice here, when I look at this point, I'm only changing the y-coordinate, changing the y-coordinate. So let's do that for the rest of the points. So zero, negative two is my next point. Change that to zero. The x-coordinate is going to stay the same, but I'm going to take the y-coordinate and I'm going to multiply by one half, which is going to change this to zero, negative one half. Half of negative two is negative one. Alright, last one we have is negative one zero. I'm going to modify this point by taking the y-coordinate and multiplying by one half, but again, multiplying by zero is awesome and nothing actually happens. All I still get is zero. So now these are my three new points that I'm going to use to graph to show what it looks like when I compress a function vertically. So these are my three new points. So one, two, three, one, and zero, negative one, and negative one, zero. So actually that point right there stayed the same. There's a lot of, looking through the compression, the stretching, and the horizontal and the vertical, all the different combinations, there's a lot of points that actually stay put. Kind of interesting, kind of interesting. Alright, so this is what it's going to look like. This is what it's going to look like when I compress vertically. We get shorter. So that one goes there and then this is a curve. This is a curve. So look you there. That's what it kind of looks like. That's what it kind of looks like. Everything got shorter. Everything kind of squirter. Shorters are a squat. Different ways to explain that. Okay, so that's a video on compressing horizontally and compressing vertically.   And when you compress vertically, you're only affecting the Y coordinates. Only affecting the Y coordinates.


Yes, we're here. We know you missed the games and all the action, the crowd, the cheers. Trust us. We miss it too. We missed the competition, the energy, the crack of the back, the spectacular plays, walking out on the green grass, the passion from the stands at Yankee Stadium. I missed interacting with the fans. I missed the both. The adrenaline and the excitement. And when the games come back. When it's time for tip off. And it's time to play ball. When it's time to kick off, we will be ready. Yes, we're here. Yes, we're here. But for now, if we have to be alone, let's do it together as teammates. Stay safe. Stay strong. Stay healthy. Stay with us. Yes, we're here.


This financial resolution and deposit insurance bill is one bill which has not been debated adequately. I read almost all the financial newspapers every day. And there has never been an attempt to have a critique of the bill. Today we have three speakers speaking on different aspects of the bill, including Honestor Swiss Royal saying that internationally there are bills like these. Many countries have adopted this bill. So apparently he does not see any problem with the bill. But I look at it slightly differently. Why at all you require a bill like this in this country? I have gone into some documents which probably others have not had access to. Normally you would not get access to which document is called the confidential documents which is available to some of the privileged members of the parliament. And many questions have been raised by the members of the parliament which has been already replied to them. And I have had a look at it. Now, one, the other countries and Indian economy, Indian banking system should not be compared is my position, which Priya also touched about. India is an economy based on savings. Japan has a negative interest rate for saving when you have to pay interest rate. Here 86% of the deposits are from the small depositors. And in spite of so much of fear created during the 2008 crisis, there was no run on any bank. Why? Because people have that faith that the public sector of banks especially will not fail. The State Bank of India Act has a provision that State Bank of India can never be liquidated. So today people have that confidence that once I put my money it will come back to me. But here you are bringing in a new concept based on the western concepts which have also failed. 2008 financial crisis, the so-called so-big banks could not survive. The government only had to come and rescue them. Here up to that how this origin has taken place is in 2009. The G7 countries means it is their decision, not the G20 decision. G7 countries mean they promote a board called the financial stability board. Then they call the G20 countries and tell them that you do what this financial stability board says. And the financial stability board comes up with an idea called key attributes in which all this bill draft itself is made. Later on our people have worked on it. There was nothing I think to work. Because if I look at the complete detail of key attributes and the draft of the bill, it is all cut and paste. Most of the classes are cut and paste, nothing new. Now you are bringing in a concept called bail-in as Mr. Swish was also explaining. Bail-out is a situation where a bank is going to fail, the government comes to the rescue of the bank. That's what in this country also has happened. It is what that happened with the cases of some of the banks in the US. They allowed some of the banks to die, but other banks they failed. In the bail-out the government brings in its money to save the bank so that the economy does not collapse and the depositor also gets back some of the money. Here in bail-in the total responsibility is shifted to the depositor. If the bank is not doing well and it is going to fail, because we have given all the loans to few corporates, 11,536 corporates, we have lent 37.8% of our advancements. And those fellows don't pay and the bank fails. The liability will be on this poor depositor. The depositor's money will be converted into an equity. Whether that equity will ever get back is a big question. And there is a classic example. In 2013, in Cyprus, a similar situation came where this bill has been already passed and that system is already working. The depositor's got only 47.5% of the deposit they deposited. The rest all were gone. Can this country afford that situation? Can we put this problem on the heads of small depositors? Lot of them pensioners, lot of them women, small amounts they collect and put it in the bank and they are not going to get back in the name of liquidation. That is going to be dangerous for this country. That's why Priya was saying that we should go to the depositor, mobilize their support also. Now comrades, why are you talking about liquidation? Can you liquidate State Bank of India in this country? 40 crore depositors, 40 crore accounts State Bank of India has. Can you say that State Bank of India is not doing well? It has given to big corporates, now they are not able to recover the money. So State Bank of India can be liquidated. Remember? It has not happened earlier also after 1969. After that we have not allowed anyone to find. Even the global trust bank when it was to be liquidated it was taken over by the whole kinder bank of farmers. New Bank of India was taken over by the Bank of National Bank. But here you are saying that question of liquidation itself will put a mistrust on the bank. People will lose that confidence that my money will come back. Once you tell the people that this is what is possible. Then what will happen?  He will take over this bank. Liquidation will not happen. It will be only taken over by a corporate, maybe relay. Maybe Ambani's or Adani's or Tata's. Somebody will take over this big bank. It can never be liquidated. And this resolution, Adaraati will have that power. It will do everything and then only report to the parliament. There is a clause in the bill which says that this authority, though it does not have the authority of CVC, CVA, they can ask CVI, CVC, everybody to obey their order and they will use them for a resolution, for an investigation. And when an investigation is started, the resolution authority can tell the bank that stop your operation from tomorrow. We will do the assessment. That assessment should be completed within a month. And then who will approve that recommendation? A judicial manji, state-athlete, stickler. What he will know about the banking sector? He will decide whether this report can be implemented. Then you go in for the resolution. That is a very dangerous thing. If you recall 2012 when the Banking Regulation Act was amended, creating a provision for merger, we went on one day strike and then we forgot about it. Nobody thought that merger is going to come. But today it has become a reality. So same way this bill, in the arguments what we are saying, that these are all provisions already there in RBI Act, PFRD Act, Insurance Act, State Bank of India Act, all that we have combined together and we are bringing a mechanism which is going to be a super mechanism with absolute powers which is absolute power corrupts absolutely this. That is the biggest danger we have in this bill is my apprehension. We have been discussing with the members of the parliament who are in the 30-member giant parliament committee. As soon as this bill was to be introduced in the parliament, I met some of the opposition leaders including Sudha Agama. I had a 40-minute discussion with him. That time he was questioning. He had a good analogy. When we said that we have an apprehension that this is all steps towards privatisation. He was saying if the defence of the country can be managed by the government, why not the finances of the country? Why you cannot continue to have the public sector who is questioning? I appeal to him that you please ask your people to oppose this bill and they oppose it only at the introduction stage. Then he asked me to meet Mr. Meera Pumaili who is the Standing Committee Chairman for Finance with an apprehension that this bill will be referred to the Finance Standing Committee. They did not want that. They want it to be somehow passed. So they have recommended it to a giant parliament committee where the head of the committee is Mr. Bhubendra Yadav from Ajmer who is a rolling party member of parliament in Rajeshwara. I have repeatedly written to him asking for an opportunity to present our views to the parliament Standing Committee. Till now I have not got a reply. I have asked him for an appointment through some of our friends in the ruling party. He has said that openly he has told some of our friends my responsibility given is that I should somehow get this bill passed. So what is the use of meeting your people and listening to them? I am going to get it passed. And the same thing Mr. Meera Pumaili also told me when I met that if this government wants to get it passed they will push it through. We cannot stop it. So what I am trying is these are people like Modi and Priya. They have worked on this bill and they have also submitted their suggestions to the giant parliament committee. From my book I have submitted a detailed presentation to them which is supposed to be a privilege to the government which I am not supposed to circulate. So I am not circulated. But our effort next is that once the parliament is Standing Committee's draft is ready I have already discussed with some of the members of the parliament that they should submit a dissent note which they are organizing. So there will be a dissent note and then subsequently if it is brought to the next session of the parliament that is what we are wanting to do. We will ask some of the members of the parliament to oppose it in the floor of the house. Ask for amendment. That's why we have invited some of the opposition leaders like Mr. Sharad Yadav who will be coming late in the next session. So that time we want the entire opposition party to oppose it. And if that does not happen and still the bill is passed we are already discussing with some of the top lawyers of this country how to challenge that again in the court of law. Because there are certain things in this bill which is against the constitution itself. Constitutions say that you cannot pass a bill which will take away the rights of some people. And here you are taking away the rights of the same point of position. So that is unconstitutional is my argument. Similarly in the bill they are creating a mechanism which they say that their decision cannot be changed in court of law. Who can take away the authority of the law? Can you take away the authority of a judiciary? But they are creating a clause. Today in the last bill that clause is there. That these decisions of the resolution authority cannot be challenged in the court. That is the last refugee you have. You can go up to Supreme Court challenging any decision. But that itself they want to take it away. So governments here this bill is in my understanding. And the understanding of many of the people who have worked on this bill is that the attempt today made is only to see that the privatisation can take place without any direct intervention of the parliament. The resolution authority after making the decision they will just send the recommendation to the parliament for approval. By the time damage is done, which is a democratic country, people have their views to be told. But the Standing Committee, Joint Parliamentary Committee is not even willing to call you for a discussion. And whatever discussion for taking place so far is with Reserve Bank of India, with the DFS. Who have drafted the bill and Reserve Bank of India? Of course in their comments they have said that you cannot take away the authority of the central bank. Because they are also seeing that their authority is being taken away. But in spite of that this bill is being forced on the parliament. And if it is passed, maybe it will take one or two years for them to really take action on the bill. Action on the act. But that will pave a way for the government to decide that any bank can be liquidated, including the RRBs. 14,000 branches and they have a large network to the rural areas. They mobilize sort of deposit from the common man. Even RRBs can be liquidated. Property banks can be liquidated. Public sector banks can be liquidated. And now they say that LIC can also be liquidated. LIC was started with just 5 crore investments from the government. Today 26% of the budgets for the government is being financed by LIC of India. Because they are flooded with so much of money. They are investing in every bank. They have 9% shareholding in state bank of India. In some of the public sector banks they have shareholding up to 16%. Many of the public sector undertakings they are having the holding. That way they are helping the government. And how worse you can think of or even imagine of talking about liquidation of LIC of India. Today their repayment rate is much better than any of these private insurance companies. Similar is the case with the general insurance corporation. So all these institutions now they are wanting to bring under one number of authority called the resolution authority. Which will have absolute power which is dangerous for the country. And as we have been talking about earlier also. Today the entire economic criteria is based on a policy called the Chicago School of Cards. Or the Hilton Firemen School of Cards. Which talks about minimum role for the government. The government's role is to look up to the border. The government's role is to look up to the taxation. And the law and the order within the country. The rest of it they say that it has to be carried over to the private sector. Because in their understanding the private sector is more efficient. Now you see whether in your own eyes whether private sector is really efficient. Come to the banking sector itself. Global trust bank that man was awarded first banker of the year award. Next year it collapsed. It had to be taken over by Oriental Bank of Hong Kong. Many of the private sector banks died. That is why nationalization was brought in. So in my understanding within this country we already have a robust resolution mechanism. You have just started the IPC and the NCLT. You have not even tested it. And it is unfortunate that the first case which was welcomed by NCLT. The amount got back by the lenders, the bankers is just 6% of the outstanding. So it is whether it is going to help the depositors. Whether it is going to help the bankers or the depositors. That is a big question. So these mechanisms we have to look at in an overall picture. What is the ultimate goal with which these are brought in? That is why we have to oppose this will. We will take all of the efforts. And we have to see that the public sector banks remain as public sector. Come let's look at that key what has happened. And to cover, he has dismissed 156000 public sector employees. He has dismissed 5000 academicians from the regular job. And he is looking into a new kind of a world based on the same theory of free portion. That he will give everything to the private sector and they will manage. So that is very dangerous for this country. So I would like you to please read the materials we circulate, discuss with the people, discuss with the customers and tell them the dangers. That is the larger majority of this country. Let them take the decision. With this I conclude. Thank you. Thank you Onanda.


Today Nintendo or I really should say early this morning slash last night Nintendo had their Financial briefing investors meeting. We're about to learn a whole bunch of stuff coming out of the Q&A from that But one thing we obviously got were all the sales updates And there's a lot of sales updates to go over and I thought about combining it all into one video But I have so much to say that I'm actually going to be separating out some of the bigger news So we'll be talking about this the total sales of switch in a different video We'll be talking about the You know certain game sales the top 10 game sales and update a different video in this video We're actually going to be focusing on Nintendo's confirmed release windows for major switch games So they every time they do this they they release a confirmed release window update for major games in different territories and so the main territories that they include are Japan the United States and Europe and these are all correct as of November of 2020 because that's when this investors meeting happened So as an example in Japan for their major titles or titles they consider to be major They have buddy mission bond coming on January 29th Super Mario 3d world plus Bowser's Fury on February 12th of 2021 Famicom Tentate Club Kieta Kikishi and Yoshiro it need Tatsu Shujuu I'm sure I totally butchered that that's coming out in 2021 Then they have Bayonetta 3 Metroid Prime 4 the Legend of Zelda Breath of the Wild sequel They're calling it a sequel and new Pokemon Snap are all listed as TBA And you're actually gonna find that all those games are listed as TBA in the United States and Europe In United States they have Age of Calamity listed for November 20th Fitness Boxing 2 for December 4th Obviously Super Mario 3d world plus Bowser's Fury as well on the 12th and bravely default 2 is on February 26 Note that that has a release date in the US but not in Japan in Europe They have Age of Calamity on the 20th Fitness Boxing 2 on the 4th 3d world on the 12th and then bravely default 2 of the 26 with the rest of those TBA games So basically the United States and Europe are identical Japan has some differences and is actually missing a key game I'm kind of curious why bravely default 2 which is being made in Japan Doesn't seem to be releasing in Japan on the same date, but it is what it is I think this is pretty good stuff to be honest What's interesting is that Pokemon Snap Breath of the Wild, Metroid Prime 4 and Band of the Three are kind of these like mystery games up there Like they're huge games and then being included in this kind of suggests the 2021 release Granted, I know things are included since they were announced But when you think about it, you know, we don't know a lot for next year But these are for announced games. We actually saw a little bit of Pokemon Snap Obviously we saw a tiny little fraction of Breath of the Wild sequel, you know temporary name We saw a logo for Metroid Prime 4 I know not much and then we didn't really see anything for Band of the Three to be completely honest Some little animation. That's not really probably that relevant to the actual game But I I honestly think that there's a high chance all four of these titles are coming next year You know if you look at the early lineup obviously in February We have Super Mario 3D World plus Bowser's Fury and then also Brave of the Default 2 and we know in March We have some some big third-party games like Monster Hunter Rise coming But I honestly think these four titles could be the tentpole games for next year Think about it a new Pokemon Snap a new a new Zelda game a new Metroid game and Band of the Three That's a very good lineup for a year now of those the only one that's guaranteed to sell really really well Is the Breath of the Wild sequel, but I also think we're gonna get a new gen Pokemon game It's just not announced yet Because this year we got DLC so next year I think we're maybe if not a new gen at least like a I don't know Let's a new let's go game or something right there's gonna be some sort of new Mainline sort of Pokemon game next year whether it's new gen or otherwise, so That's my personal opinion anyways, I maybe I'm wrong. Maybe it'll be more DLC I don't know but that's that's kind of the feeling I get based on the normal release schedule for Pokemon games So you combine that with a breath of the wild and a snap and a prime four and a band of three So yeah, that's a really nice slate of games for next year Whether or not they all arrive Anyone's guess. I mean the least likely of the batch might be Metroid Prime for I Mean better than three had didn't change developers So even though we haven't really seen anything of it. We keep being told developments going well Well developments actually going well then a 2021 release would make some sense Metroid Prime 4 we haven't seen and it changed developers midway through so that seems like the least likely despite the 35th anniversary next year Breath of the Wild sequel. I mean when we get to 2021, that's five years. That's been you know as of March 3rd That will be five years since the release of the last main lines all the game in terms of Being a brand new game obviously get links awakening that that remake in between a remaster in between but yeah I I honestly think that uh, there is a high chance a breath of the wild sequels coming next year for that 35th anniversary Then you know Pokemon snap obviously looked like it was pretty far along in development as is when they announced it So I'm I'm pretty excited about the new Pokemon snap game as well Although I felt that Pokemon snap would have made more sense on Wii U It was a sold on Wii U because hardly anything sold on Wii U besides a few temp poll games And even those games are selling traditionally better on the Nintendo switch. So yeah, I don't know That's just my thoughts on what we have to look forward to in 2021 and what Nintendo's official statement on release dates is I'm pretty stoked about this in general I hope you guys are too nice and short video for our first one But I got plenty more in the pipeline for you guys. Whoo. Stay tuned folks I am Nathan Robo jets from Nintendo Prime, and I'll catch you all in the next video


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Well, thank you both for introducing me and organizing this exciting program. I'm truly honored to be part of this program and happy to share some of my thoughts about what's going on in North Korea, particularly in the relationship between North Korea and the U.S. Of course, some of you have come here this morning thanks to the dramatic remarks made by Trump and Kim Jong-un. President Trump made this statement at the U.N. General Assembly that the U.S. may not have any other option but to totally destroy North Korea. And Kim Jong-un responded this morning by saying that he may not have any other option but to respond with the strongest measure ever. And so the war of wars has escalated. And that's in a way the gist of my presentation today. That is, the U.S. and North Korea have been engaged in this tit-for-tat. And North Korean actions and wars can be better understood when they are placed in this context of a strategic interaction of a tit-for-tat. And once we understand this tit-for-tat, it's actually very easy to not only understand North Korea but also even make predictions. As a matter of fact, I made a prediction in the first class of this fourth term that the North Koreans would fire a missile before the end of the term. And of course, I was proven right. And my students were supposed to buy me pizza. I'm looking forward to my award. Thanks to a great leader, Kim Jong-il, Kim Jong-un. And of course, the first part of my presentation, six years of challenges that have been posed by Kim Jong-un since he assumed power after Kim Jong-un, Kim Jong-il's death, is a familiar story, a lot of nuclear tests. This kind of a threat that they will destroy White House. Kim Jong-un goes to the front line and tells the soldiers to drive the enemy into fire pit. That's exactly the words he used. They do this kind of military exercises. And they even show this map that shows the trajectories of the missiles from North Korea somewhere here to various points in the U.S. Very bombastic threats. And of course, just a few weeks ago, North Korea studied doing all sorts of provocations, missiles, hydrogen bomb tests, another round of missiles. So we are familiar with this part of the story. Kim Jong-un is very aggressive in conducting these weapons tests and saying horrendous things and refusing to engage the world. But my argument is that we need to situate these actions by the North Koreans in the context of American actions for the past six years. And this is part of the strategic interactions that's less well known.  We are much more familiar with the North Korean nuclear crisis, but there has been U.S. nuclear crisis over Korea since 1950. And we need to understand this in order to understand North Korea. And the six years crisis of American nuclear weapons started in November 1950 and has continued until today when Donald Trump came out and said the U.S. will totally destroy North Korea. On November 30, 1950, Truman came out and made this statement during the press conference that using atomic bomb was one of the options he was actually considering. And that made a big shock. This was only five years after the U.S. dropped two atomic bombs over Japan. And here, again, President Truman was saying that he might use nuclear weapons again. And so it was so shocking the British prime minister took a flight the following day to have a meeting with President Truman to bring him to senses and not to use atomic bombs. Maybe he was successful. And even though Truman did sign an authorization to release atomic warheads to the military, the weapons were not used at the time. But even after the war was over, even after the armistice was signed, the U.S. continued to develop plans to use atomic bombs over Korea. And so if you look at this document that was signed on August 20, 1953, just two weeks after the armistice agreement was signed, the strategy to command had an outline plan to use atomic bombs against China, Manchuria, and North Korea. And then this plan was further developed into a bomb target list. And so this is one of the list that were produced in 1956 and has many targets in the Soviet Union, China, and North Korea. And I was able to translate these coordinates into a location in a map, thanks to Google Earth. And that number translates into Sukfung. This is Sukfung Dam, one of the largest, the largest dam in North Korea, between North Korea and China. And the bomb was supposed to be dropped right here. And then there are more than 50 targets in this list. This is another one, Shin-Eju. One of the largest cities bordering China, and the bomb was supposed to be dropped right in the middle of Shin-Eju city. And then, of course, Pyongyang was not left out of this list. And a bomb or bombs were supposed to be dropped right in front of this Chuche Tower. Some of you might have seen this. And so this was the intended target. And so the US had these targets on their list. And if bombs were dropped, something like that would have happened. There are different estimates of fatalities and casualties. This one happens to be over 100,000. And I don't know if people in the South realize this, but if the wind blows in an unfortunate direction, South Korea would not be immune from the fallouts. Even if a bomb is dropped in Pyongyang, South Korea could suffer from the fallouts. But anyhow, that was one of the plans that the military had. And in 1968, the Joint Chief of Staff developed a different kind of plan. And part of the plan, in response to North Korea's capture of American spy ship Pueblo, was a code named Freedom Drop. And I guess the American military associated freedom with atomic bombs. And this plan was to drop several atomic bombs against North Korea. And so I can go on and on about the plans. But I move forward to the Bush administration. This is a baby Bush, George W. Bush administration, who adopted the strategy of unilateralism and a preemptive strike. And the goal of unilateralism and the preemption was regime change and occupation. And of course, this strategy was applied to Iraq. And we are still seeing consequences of this action. And of course, Iraq was not the only target, as we know. George W. Bush listed Iraq, Iran, and North Korea on the axis of evil. And North Korea could be a target of this strategy also. And there are many indications that North Koreans actually accelerated their nuclear weapons program in response to this. And we see that the first nuclear test was conducted after this. And then many others were conducted under the Obama administration. And you might ask, why? Obama is a good guy. If Bush is not such a good guy. Well, when it comes to Korea, particularly nuclear strategy, Obama was not so different from George W. Bush. I may surprise you, Obama did the reverse unilateralism. Obama did reverse preemptive strike doctrine. But he chose to remove North Korea from negative security assurance. He chose to deny the North Koreans from a guarantee that they would not be attacked with an American nuclear weapon first. And then he further refined and developed American nuclear strategies targeting North Koreans. And so if the U.S. had a large deterrence strategy, Obama came up with a tailored deterrence strategy that was really targeted at North Korea. And North Koreans responded to this by conducting a few more nuclear tests. And Trump created an uproar with this remark about fire and fury. And then he even raised the stakes higher by saying that he has no choice but to totally destroy North Korea. And so the larger point that I'm making this part of the presentation is that the Korean Peninsula has had this nuclear crisis for over 60 years. And North Korean nuclear missile programs and their strategic behavior in general can be better understood when they are seen in this strategic context. And since the 1990s, North Koreans have responded to Americans, American actions in terms of a tit for tat tactic. So if Americans take an action, North Koreans would respond in kind. And that's exactly what has been happening. And it only accelerated under Kim Jong-un's rule, but the nature of a tit for tat has not changed a single bit. And just to illustrate the tit for tat, I could just quickly go through some pictures that show what happened in 2013. And here you see some of the photos that I showed at the outset as part of my argument about Kim Jong-un's aggressive behavior, but Kim Jong-un's aggressive actions should be seen in this context. So joint military exercise between the U.S. and South Korea began on March 1st, and then this came. And then there was a joint military exercise again, and then this came, a bomber or two bombers from Gwang, and then this, a stealth bomber from the U.S. continent, and then this one. And what we just saw in August and September of this year shows the exact same pattern. So late August saw the beginning of military exercise, and this was North Korean response. This was a U.S. and this was a North Korean response, U.N. sanctions, and this was a North Korean response. I have fun with the PowerPoint. And this is the latest American response, and I'm actually holding my breath because I am afraid that North Koreans would respond in kind again. What Kim Jong-un said this morning is response in kind. Donald Trump said something, and so North Korean leader said something in return. But North Koreans have not responded to this action in kind yet, and I wouldn't be surprised if they do soon. Having said that, having said that North Koreans have been responding to American actions in kind, I would like to end with a more optimistic note by showing that North Koreans have responded to engagement, with engagement. And that's an important part of a tit for tat that we should not forget. Although it is largely forgotten. There were agreements, and these agreements succeeded first in freezing North Korean nuclear programs. And so the nuclear reactor and reprocessing facilities were frozen, and the inspectors put seals on the doors and put, you know, monitoring cameras and ensured that there were no activities while the Geneva grid framework was in place. And then later, when the six-party talks were going on, North Koreans disabled. This was a step further than freezing. So North Koreans, for example, took out some pipes from its nuclear reactors. North Koreans took out some pieces from a glove compartment of reprocessing facilities. So it's not just freezing, but it's actually taking out some pieces and parts from the facilities. And North Koreans even destroyed a cooling tower. So these are important measures that really disabled the nuclear facilities in this period. And so if you look at the 20 years record in total, you see a tit for tat. If there was an engagement, North Korea responded with a freeze. Engagement during the six-party talks disabled. But if there was a military pressure sanctions or military actions, then North Koreans responded with its own military actions. And so the record is, I think, quite clear. As a social scientist, one cannot really have a better empirical evidence of strategic interaction, where one responds to another in kind. And so one would think policymakers and the general public would understand this pattern. This is a very, very consistent pattern for the past 20 years. So consistent, I was even able to make a prediction and win pizza. But somehow many policymakers don't seem to see this clear pattern. And I think part of the problem is media. I hope there is no media today. And the media tends to forget important parts of the reality. That is, for example, Pyongyang made a proposal in July 2016 last year to denuclearize. Pyongyang wanted to have a dialogue about denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula. But Washington and Seoul rejected that proposal right out of the hand. And then North Koreans began its nuclear activities and missile activities. And these two, North Korean proposal and Washington and Seoul's rejection, are not usually part of public discourse. And what usually gets included is North Korea's nuclear activities and missile activities. I think that's unfortunate reality of what the way the policy discourse is made. And again, earlier this year, in June of 2017, North Koreans made a proposal for a freeze for freeze. And so the proposal was that if the U.S. stops a military exercise, then the North Koreans would stop missile and nuclear tests. And the North Korean proposal was actually an improved one, improved over the last proposal. The proposal that they made two years ago was that if the U.S. stops military exercise, the North would stop nuclear tests only. And this time, this guy came out, a North Korean ambassador to India, came out and sweetened the deal by saying that the North Korea would stop both nuclear and missile tests in return for American stopping of its military exercise. But again, this proposal came and went and I was not much notice. And it came and went because Washington and Seoul rejected this right out of the hand the next day. And then Pyongyang began its nasty, it was like almost Kim Jong-un throwing temper tantrums. Anyhow, part of the problem is that these kind of proposals are not registered and reputable newspapers like the New York Times and Dave Sand, he's been with the New York Times forever and he's the main guy who writes about American voting policies and security issues. And this is how he wrote. So the North Korea will never put the nuclear difference for self-defense on the negotiating table and flinch even an inch from the road of bothering the state, nuclear force, unquote. So this part is a quotation of a North Korean statement made by the Korean Minister. And Dave Sand wrote the period right here. But the whole sentence did not end there. The whole sentence had a conditional clause. North Korea will never put this on the negotiating table unless the US removes its hostile policies and nuclear threats. And the partial sentence and the whole sentence are very different. And I think we should pay attention to the whole sentence, not the partial sentence. And yet even someone like Dave Sand forgets to include this important conditional clause. And I suspect this is what the North Koreans wanted to highlight. But this part unfortunately gets left out. And I talked about tit for tat in terms of actions and words. And I didn't put these in a somewhat theoretical way. And I'm not going to do that, but let me just say that in our International Relations Scholarship there is a well-established body of literature that the tit for tat is the best tactic for cooperation. And so Robert Axel wrote this influential book that uses computer simulation to show that the tit for tat is really the best way to produce international cooperation. But here in the relationship between the US and North Korea tit for tat did not produce cooperation, rather has exacerbated the situation. And so one asks why. And my answer is that many scholars like Axel wrote forgot to include social dimension of international relations. And US and North Korea are engaged in a social relationship that is characterized by social enmity. They are in a state of war. And their tit for tat exacerbates social enmity. Condition of enmity gets consolidated and strengthened by their tits and tats. And as a result the situation gets even more tense and more dangerous. And I have this whole model of how this works and this model works really well to explain nuclear tests in 2009, 2013 and so forth. But this is mainly for those who are more theoretically inclined. But if you are concerned about the situation and if you are concerned about the news, I think the moral of my lecture, my presentation today is that you need to put North Korea in the context of its strategic interactions with the US. And once you do that, you too can make predictions of North Korea. Thank you. Fascinating. Thank you. Next speaker, Andrew Jackson from Monash, senior lecturer and convener of Korean studies. He's a historian by training and has developed a keen interest also in popular culture in North Korea. He's the author of the 1728 Mushing Rebellion Politics and Plotting in 18th Century Korea and he's co-editor of Korean Screen Cultures interrogating cinema, TV, music and online games. Please, I think you've already welcomed him perhaps but if you haven't please join me in welcoming him. Thank you very much for all. And A&U for inviting me here today from Melbourne. It's a lot warmer here and it was in Melbourne, a lot less rainy as well. I'd like to start off by saying, Professor Sartre, I've got a bone to pick with you. I thought you were going to talk about the imminent collapse of North Korea when you talked in your title. It's a bit misleading but you didn't. So I'm going to have to fill that in. Over the years there's almost a virtual industry growing up in the prediction of the imminent collapse of North Korea. I remember it from when I was at university in the 1990s. You know, Eastern Europe's gone, North Korea's next. I remember it after 1994 when Kim Il-sung died. I remember it after the famine. I remember it after 2011. North Korea is just about to go and we're still getting these predictions right now. It hasn't gone and remarkable as it may seem. It's still there. What I'm going to talk about today is one of the scenarios for potential collapse of North Korea and that is by popular uprising or what you might call revolution. I'll talk about a lot of theory of revolution and they always talk about revolution. I prefer mass rebellion but we can talk about that after if you're interested in the theory. But the image we should have in mind is of something like the events of 1989 in East Germany or Romania or maybe in Libya, Egypt and Tunisia of something like a mass demonstration, explosion of anger, of popular anger. Elites may be joining in the demonstration, military refusing to crush the demonstration and then eventually the regime is overthrown. So this is the kind of rebellion we're talking about. And there are many, several researchers who have predicted this kind of event occurring in North Korea. Now I should say first, from the back, I'm kind of a bit uncomfortable giving this talk because I'm not really a scholar of researcher into North Korea so much as a historian of rebellion in Korea. And as a historian I like to look at events that have happened, not events that haven't happened and may never happen. And also a lot of the information I'm going to be using is rather speculative, especially about the political institution, military institutions in North Korea. There's a lot of conflicting evidence simply because researchers don't seem to know exactly what's going on. And another thing I should say unlike predicting missile launches in North Korea, predicting revolutions is incredibly difficult. Jack Goldstone calls it the paradox of revolutions. In hindsight it seems so obvious that something's going to happen in Egypt or in Tunisia, but no one ever predicts these things are about to occur. So what I'm going to talk about then is this imminent collapse of the DPRK through some kind of explosion of anger. And I think this is quite a timely discussion or topic because of the question of economic sanctions. A journalist last week asked me, look do you think if we tighten the sanctions enough in North Korea then there will be this explosion of anger. Now if a journalist is working this out maybe some of our political colleagues in Washington or elsewhere have got the same thought in mind. One researcher who looked at this question in particular is Victor Cha. You may have heard of him. He's probably about to become the U.S. ambassador to Seoul. And he wrote a book Impossible State a few years ago. It's very interesting. And he argued that we're likely to see very shortly a Ceausescu moment in North Korea. And North Korea is actually a train wrecking motion. It's about to collapse, a ticking time bomb. And Ceausescu, as you remember, is the Romanian dictator. And there was a moment when he addressed crowds, a stage-managed crowd event, and the crowds, many of the crowds turned upon him and this set in motion a chain of events that led to his overthrow. And Victor Cha says, the evidence for this train wrecking slow motion was ticking time bomb. Incidents occurred all over North Korea. Some are clashes, riots, food riots. Some are clashes with security services between people and the military. Some are coups, attempted military coups. Some are just simply illegal posters or examples of seditious graffiti. All sorts of events are thrown in here by Cha. But I would argue it is a very significant list of events and he's really tried to get all this information together. But he says this is evidence of this ticking time bomb that this anger is about to explode. He argues that what's led to this state of affairs is actually the 1990s economic failure that collapsed the public distribution system, the famine. And also this combined with increasing amounts of marketization from below. So people engaging in trade, ordinary people in North Korea, engaging in trade, crossing the border into China, picking up goods, bringing them back, selling them, engaging in sort of market activities. In addition to this is a certain amount of heterodox ideology, so information about the reality of life in South Korea that actually is quite prosperous and it's not the horrible place that the leadership claims it is. So this leads to this kind of ideological gap and this gap between what the regime, the official discourses of the regime and what people see is actually going on through these DVDs or smuggled information about South Korea. So this is gap occurring and this will lead to this explosion of anger. He also argues that some catalyst, for example, a crackdown on markets, which is what occurred in 2009 and there was a spike in these events around that period. This would be the catalyst for this revolution, he argues. Now in theoretical terms what he's arguing is quite sound. If you look at research on rebellion, he identifies a transient cause of rebellion which is quite frequent occurrence. He also identifies a society in unstable equilibrium which is a society ripe for rebellion using Chalmers Johnson's expression. There are some problems with his assumptions and this is what I'm going to look at today, really. First, is North Korea in a state of unstable equilibrium? Here's a very interesting picture. This is taken maybe last week in North Korea and you can see this is a rural community and you can see these farmers plots which are overflowing with vegetables and things to be produced wide. These are going to be taken to market and sold as surplus to make a bit of extra money for local people. This is a very interesting manifestation of this marketization from below that a lot of researchers are talking about in North Korea. If we talk about this marketization from below and people engaging in this kind of market activities, are we actually witnessing a society in this unstable equilibrium or are we seeing something quite a lot more stable? Che Yong Sog has written a very interesting article where he looks at exactly the same data as Victor Cha. He looks at the influx of heterodox information coming in through smuggled DVDs, through information about reality of life in the Republic of Korea. And he also looks at the marketization from below that Victor Cha also looks at. But he says that actually this has led to complete opposite of what Victor Cha is saying. He's saying, look, the regime in Pyongyang is actually able to rule using Gromsky's idea maintaining a system of domination without hegemony. In other words, people will go along, they'll tow the line, they'll go along with what Che Yong Yang is saying as long as they don't attempt too many structural changes, i.e. they don't interfere with market activities. They don't try to plant down the markets like they did in 2009. This is a very persuasive argument, so that's one question we can ask about Victor Cha's argument. Is it actually a society in unstable equilibrium? Another problem with his argument is he actually identifies a kind of revolution that we would call central collapse, and this is what happened in Egypt, in Tunisia, in East Germany, in Romania, where demonstrations broke out in the capital city, also like Professor Kim talked about this morning, but instead of it going to being dealt with problems, structural problems being dealt with from constitutional means, it escalates, the crisis escalates, and maybe the military joins with the demonstrators, and being in the centre of power, being close to political institutions, the government's much more vulnerable to any kind of mass demonstrations. This is what we saw in these countries, and if you look at the evidence of what Victor Cha finds, these violent incidents, these seditious posters and all this, none of them happened, actually very few of them happened in the capital tour, most of them are happening in different parts of the countries, far away from the capital, Chongjin, Shiniju, that we mentioned before, Hamun, Enson, so these are happening at the far extremities of the country, these large scale clashes, and actually what Victor Cha is, by pointing this out, what Victor Cha is actually identifying, fails to identify an important feature of revolutions that we know as researchers about revolutions, they tend to happen in the same places again and again, and researchers looking at pre-modern and modern China and Japan have found consistent patterns of rebellious activity, they tend to occur in certain areas over and over again, almost and very often impervious to any kind of political change, so in China we saw changes in government from a feudal, more feudal system to a capitalist system to communism, and yet rebellions would occur in the same locations over and over again. Why is this? Well certain areas tend to develop cultures of contention, that doesn't mean people are more rebellious than in other areas, but there is sort of a precedent for them, often certain areas are more susceptible to food crisis, food shortages, also logistically it's more difficult for governments to crush rebellions which are far away. So the pattern of rebellions that actually Victor Cha's data points to is not central collapse, which tends to be quite rapid generally, but actually what we call peripheral advanced revolution. And we saw this kind of revolution in various countries around the world, Cuba, in Nicaragua, we see it, we also saw it in Libya and we saw a variety of it in Syria, and often this kind of revolution tends to be rather more protracted and also it's far more susceptible to external influences, particularly changing sort of international relations situations. And we saw that very clearly in Libya and also in Syria that how external governments intervened into these problems affected the outcome of the revolution. So in Libya, British, Italians and French troops or the military forces joined with the rebels against the Giddafi regime and it felt quite rapidly. In Syria you've got a very different outcome, you had superpowers joining the government side and also helping the rebels and the result is as you see a sort of protracted bloody mess and a civil war. So it's very important when we talk about revolutions, how they occur and where they occur to consider these different patterns. Ominously for the North Korean case, in one of the statistics that Victor Cha, one of the cases, one of the incidents is one in 1999 in Onseng County in the far north of the country on the Chinese border and this was an incident involving border crossers where people attempting to cross the border were probably to pick up goods, engage in some kind of market activity and this was allegedly crushed by elite border guard units with the approval of the Chinese authorities. In other words, they didn't want these problems as violence spreading into China. So this is kind of, if some kind of event, some kind of violence occurs on the borders, it's uncertain which way China would intervene and that's what... So what Victor Cha is saying is kind of... I've got to be a little bit careful about this assumption of the regime collapsing in the centre. Now I've just got to move on because I've only got five minutes left but I'll get to my main point and my main point is really about the presence of elites in the Revolution or in the rebellion. Now, elite groups, either second society, distant groups or some kind of intellectual fringe groups or even members of the government, disenfranchised members often play a very important role in the outcome of revolutions. And one elite group that plays a particularly important role is the military. And as Trotsky said, there's no doubt in the fate of every revolution is decided by the disposition of the army. So national crisis will impact members of the army but the going over of the army to the revolution doesn't happen of its own accord or through mere agitation. So can we ask a question? What variables will influence the going over of the military to a potential revolution or rebellion? And can we speculate about whether these conditions are in place in the DPRK? Well, to do this I'm going to use some ideas by Terence Lee. He's a researcher in Singapore and he looked at the outcome of different rebellions, mass rebellions that I've been describing in different Asian countries. And he looked at cases where the military defected and joined the rebels and the regime was overthrown. For example, in the Philippines in 1986 and also in Indonesia in 1998. And he also looked at cases where the military defended the regime and crushed the demonstrations. He looked at Tiananmen Square in 1989 and also Burma in 2007. And this gives us a very interesting picture of how to assess this problem. And what he argued was very convincingly that a lot of this was dependent upon the degree of personalism in the military. In other words, if it was very top down, if the dictator was dictating a lot of the promotions and making the key decisions, military decisions within the military hierarchy. And this overrode the sort of general patterns of military hierarchy. If he created a sort of parallel military structure to not actually not trusting his own military but created a sort of elite corpse on top of his own military to protect his own rule. This would lead to sort of lone morale in a split military. And then on the other hand, in cases where the military tended to stay loyal to the regime, tended to be where there was more power sharing within military institutions. Sort of institutions that mitigated this level of personalism. So what can we see in North Korea? Well, I've got to admit, I've looked at a lot of... Yeah, it's a funny picture. I take it you're not laughing at the dogs but the medals there. What can we see in North Korea? And this is where it gets a little bit difficult telling how these institutions work. There is a lot of information but it tends to be very conflicting and that's a problem with the information we have about or I can find about the institution in North Korea. But Ken Gores, who's an American military scientist I'd say has looked at the state of the military and he argues that actually in many ways it's a very personalized system. There's also a crumbling sort of economy retaining the loyalty of elite military units and officers. Plus there's also this separate military structure within the military there to protect the regime in case of problems. And there's also high evidence of low morale amongst conventional forces which is generally conscripted. Now we've got all this information but on the other hand a lot of evidence actually points to the opposite. Actually under Kim Jong-un you've got a far more sort of level of power sharing amongst military units and that's quite problematic because it means that this prediction of military collapse probably wouldn't happen. Also you've got a very large number of special forces many of which are around the capital I've seen some of them with my own eyes protecting elite groups within the capital and the actions of groups like this would be very difficult to predict in the event of some kind of crisis in the emergency. Anyway I've got to finish so just to sum up I don't think you can assume any kind of link between popular anger and a rebellion occurring a popular uprising occurring in North Korea. You certainly shouldn't link that to economic sanctions and policy I think it would be very risky to try and link economic sanctions to some kind of longer term strategy of starving a population into rising up against the regime. It's not as simple as that. Regional factors have to be considered like I mentioned the different patterns of revolution that we've seen but also what the military would do in the event of a crisis also has to be considered and that is I would argue very unpredictable in North Korea. Thank you. Thanks so much. I'm sure there are many questions so I would like to invite the audience to ask questions. Thank you for the two papers. I have just two questions for each one. One for each one. Professor Jay Song. I was very wondering you mentioned about the 60 years of North Korea crisis but as you come to the very recent times around 2016, July 2016 and then June 2017 the Washington and Seoul refused North Korea's proposal but at the time 2016 and 2017 I wonder why they refused because South Korea in 2016 is Park Geun-hae's government period and Moon Jae-in is more liberal to North Korea but Park Geun-hae is a very anti-North Koreans and one question for Professor Jay Song and therefore Andrew I was thinking about you talking about rebellions especially on the North side of the Korean monsoon you mentioned that one area with the elite groups but you were talking about in relation to China but monsoon is more close to Russia is there any connection with Russia as well as China? Thank you for the very good question well 2016 had President Obama as American president and Park Geun-hae as a South Korean president and both of them were taking a more conservative North Korean policy orientation and so it doesn't take a lot of imagination to see why they would have turned down the proposal from the North and 2017 is a more complicated one because South Korea now and a more liberal president and to me the rationale was the same so 2016 Park Geun-hae and Obama government turned down the proposal because they North Korean proposal as a trait of a liberal action for


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