Welcome to the key session of the day, this special address by PC Mustafa, CEO and founder IDFreshFood on building a brand using common sense. PC Mustafa led the foundation of IDFreshFood in the year 2005 with the aim of preserving the tradition of Indian cooking. Today, IDFreshFood has become a thousand crore brand employing more than 1500 plus youngsters from rural India and extending its services across the country and the Middle East. Having completed his graduation from NIT Calicut in the Computer Science Department, Mustafa went on to work with companies like Motorola and Citibank. He's also an alumnus of IAM Bangalore. Mr Mustafa has been conferred several awards including India Today, Make in India Award, JCI National Award, Vocational Excellence Award and Entrepreneur India Award among others. He's also a part of the honorable Prime Minister's Champions of Change team with a vision to build New India by 2022 and was recently invited to speak about his inspirational entrepreneurial journey at the UN headquarters.  Put your hands together, welcome on stage, PC Mustafa. In the name of God, peace be unto you. Thank you for inviting me here. Such a great honor to be here among all these great leaders. Today, I decided to speak about a very uncommon subject called common sense. Let me introduce you before we start. I am PC Mustafa. I come from a very remote village in a beautiful place called Vainad in Kerala. We had no electricity in my village. We had no roads in my village. My dad was a cooly. As my dad was finding it difficult to meet both ends of the family, I ended up doing a cooly job at the age of 10. I had to walk miles to my school. Government's midday meal scheme was the biggest motivation factor for me to attend the school. Three-time meal was a distant dream during my childhood days. I never had opportunity to breakfast in my life. I was very poor in my studies. I was a school dropout. I later went back to school and turned out to be a school topper next year. I then ended up doing my engineering in computer science from NAT Calicut by chance. I was given a campus offer from a multinational company in Bangalore. After seeing my campus offer, my dad felt it was my annual package, not my Monday offer. It was actually more than his lifetime savings. Seeing my first-man salary, he cried because he had never seen that kind of money in his lifetime. I then worked with a few MNCs in India, Middle East and Europe. I decided to come back to India with an objective of creating employment for smart kids in my village. I then ended up doing my MBA from IAM Bangalore by choice. I then co-founded ID FreshFood along with my cousins. Today, we are a 1000 crore FreshFood brand, serving world's best breakfast, at least to a million Indians every single day. There is no rocket science in this business. There is no entry barrier. Then how did we build a brand without spending money? In the next 25 minutes, I will share a few stories from ID. These are my real-life stories and I hope these stories will help you to become better managers and better human beings. So here goes my stories and the message to you. ID was founded by me and my cousins. Later, new partners and professionals joined us in the journey. We built ID into a 1000 crore FreshFood brand using common sense. Most important aspect of any business is common sense, which is reducing dangerously these days. We are depending on too much on hard tools and spreadsheets, which increases analysis paralysis. When the only thing needed at that time of the point would be common sense. Even when we started ID, our first product, Idli Dosa batter. We used common sense. My co-founders used to run a small-time Kirana store in a place called Tipassandra in Bangalore. Just walkable away from this place. They used to procure Idli Dosa batter from an unbranded supplier, local vendor. It had regular quality issues, service complaints and unwanted cockroaches in the batter. My cousins tried to fix the issue with the vendor multiple times. It didn't work out. That's when we thought we should create our own batter. We consulted roadside vendors and our grandmothers to create the world's best batter. We did not have an R&T team. We did not read market reports. We did not do market research. Easiest route was to add preservatives in the food as done by many others in the market for increased shelf life and better profitability. We decided to keep our products 100% natural. It was actually war against preservatives. Another popular snack that all of us love is the Vada. It's very popular in South India especially. Vada goes best with Idli. Kids love Vada too. But it's one of the most difficult snacks to make at home. Unless you're an expert like your grandmothers. Vada started disappearing from Indian homes, including my home. There are two significant challenges making Vada. The first challenge is to get the Vada batter right. But even if I give Vada batter to homemaker, he or she will not be able to make Vada because it's a cumbersome job. It's a tough task. Vada batter is sticky like your fibby coat. Second challenge is to get the hole for the Vada. You must be an expert to make perfect Vadas. You cannot get the size right. You cannot get the shape right. And we South Indians will not eat a Vada without a hole. When I talk to homemakers in my office, when I talk to homemakers in my office, they were okay to make Vada if I give them Vada batter. But then they had no idea how to get a hole for the Vada. And most importantly, the new generation of homemakers like you will end up frying fingers instead of frying the Vada. We wanted to help all homemakers to make the best Vada at home. This journey started three years ago. If you look back, this is where I'm talking about common sense. This is a century old problem. We identified it. We had the guts to solve it. We talked to industry experts. They were notable helpers. We used common sense to solve it. And our solution is ID's new Vada pack for you. ID's new Vada pack helps you perfect homemade Vadas that are shaped, sized, just like homemade Vadas. Expert made Vadas without you touching the batter. That do with a proper hole in the middle. With 100 percent natural, no chemicals, no preservatives, nothing added in it. Now it takes just one minute for a homemaker to make Vada at home. But then it took us three years to build it. It was not an easy journey. We didn't lose hope. We kept on trying. It was a classical conflict of profitability versus a meaningful solution. I'm sure you're all curious to know about this magical Vada pack. Vada making is a science now. Not an art anymore. Let me show you how it works. May I request you to play the Vada video? It's no ordinary snack. A South Indian specialty. It's a favorite in homes across India. But it's circular cylindrical shape and doughnut like hole make it fairly difficult to prepare at home. It needs the expert hands of grandmas and aunts or even restaurant cooks. Not anymore. ID decided to turn its attention on this age old problem and transform the complex art of Vada making into a science for everyone. And the key ingredient common sense.  The spout that shapes Vada into Vadas with the hole. And that's it. Squeeze, shape, cut, fry. Handmade but with no mask, no stress. Just delicious crispy Vadas. ID maker of India's favorite batters and fresh food presents Vada batter in a pack that shapes Vada into Vadas. Now everybody can Vada. This product and packaging was developed my cousin who didn't have any technical education. Techies like you call it 3D printing of Vada. Experts out there call it innovation. But if you actually look at it, it's common sense. Nothing else. We use common sense to identify a century old problem and use common sense to solve it. That's it. So my first message to you is look around, identify such issues and use common sense to solve it. That's the best way to solve world's problems and build a business out of it. Moving to my second story is about the story of innovation. As I mentioned earlier, there's no rocket sense in making idlidosa batter. Almost zero entry barrier. Anybody can make it. We started with just 50,000 rupees of investment. But then there's something which keep us apart from the local players. That's innovation. So my story is about innovation with an ID. There are five areas that we looked at innovation that we can bring in the business. One is our product innovation. The packaging innovation. The marketing innovation. The backend that we use as innovation that we have done. Technology. We are a group of techies. So technology is something which drives business. And as I mentioned, marketing innovation. So let me just quickly run you through. Few examples were innovated. So when everyone was speaking, we see making the atta at home, the idlidosa batter at home, we thought we can create a product for them. Instead of grinders, we tried to pack the quality of the same home and grind the batter into a pack. When the whole world is busy adding chemicals in the food, we said we'll keep it natural, nothing else. When we entered the crowded paneer market, we differentiated ourselves with the product. Our paneer is made with lime, not with acid. When the whole world is busy extending the product shelf life, doing R&D in extending the product shelf life, we were busy reducing the product shelf life and serving it fresh. We started working with one day shelf life products in the store. Today, we have products ranging from three days to seven days with shelf life. We invented a business model, which can sell fresh products through retail store. This is, I think, probably one of the most important insight of this discussion. How many of you use idlidosa batter? Good. I don't sell idlidosa batter. A homecale ecu picks up a pack of idlidosa batter. It becomes your assistant in the kitchen. You serve, you cook steaming idli and serve it on the dining table to your family. If idli comes out well, you get the credit, not me. And for some reason, if idli is hard, blame goes to me, the brand ID. I think that's a very important insight in terms of innovating the positioning. I'm coming to the packaging innovation. All of you who use idlidosa batter would know that we've created a pack which will transform itself from a pouch to a vessel when you zip lock open it. It's a patented technology from outside. We took almost four years to create it. Today, you don't need a vessel. You can actually make dosa idli directly from a pouch. That's innovation. I just talked about Vada. Became a super-hated cross. We're just launching this new product in the market. We haven't seen that in the market yet. This is the first platform that I'm talking about this. We are launching a filter coffee decoction in the market. And that's a pack. That's a pack. It is pouch. We try to create a 3D printing, 3D view of the product using graphics. And the die-cutting. Let me talk about back-end innovation. To get the best idli batter, you need to soak it, wash it, I mean, clean it, soak it, wash it, grind it, ferment it, pack it. That's all you do. Nothing else. So when you grind it, it has to be ground using the traditional bed grinder, stone grinding, the one that I've shown you in the first foil. Unfortunately, Germans don't eat idli dosa. So there are no large machines available to make idli dosa better. One bed grinder will grind one and a half kg of rice or dal for all. If you use the traditional bed grinder. If I use any non-traditional approach, I will not give the right quality. So we went to US, identified the mustard paste-making machine, got it, customized, and created our own batter-making machine. Today, instead of one and a half kg rice per hour, the same machine, the wet grinding, the traditional wet grinding machine, grinds 1500 kg of rice per hour. That is technology. The technology I'm talking about. ID runs on IT. We are a group of techies. As I mentioned earlier, when the whole world was busy creating a product for long shelf life and following the traditional FMCG distribution model, we were busy creating our own distribution model with shorter shelf life. For that, we used technology. We used technology from day one. Every store is geotagged, geofenced. We have the last seven years data. We used this data for predicting the demand on a particular day in a particular store for a particular product to the accurate level. When we started a new product in a new city, since we deal with highly perishable food, our wastage will be as high as 45% each, which means 100 packets instead of the market, 45 come back unsolved. Today, in a mature city, mature product with this technology, my wastage is less than 1% each. That is technology. I'm coming to the last part of my discussion, which is marketing innovation. I'm going to talk about the press show. How many of you believe something comes in a packed food is healthy? How many of you think you said you use ID better? Do you think ID is healthy? Two numbers, two. Just one person, I think. That's quite natural. That's common. Anything comes in a packed food is considered as unhealthy. I tried different campaigns to mention that even though I come in a packed food, it is healthy, it is natural, nothing else in it. But then people love my story. You were clapping when I told you about my childhood stories. But then people don't believe the story behind the ID. It is natural. My biggest problem was I want my customers to trust me. What is the best way for someone to trust you? What is the best way for someone to trust you? I think almost half of this crowd have experienced ID better. They still don't trust me. Reassurance. Who said that? Trust them so that they will trust you. So we created a campaign called Trust Shop. Three years ago, we set up unmanned shops in apartment complexes and offices. We kept all ID fresh products in a chiller. It was purely based on trust. There were no salesperson, no technology, no cameras, no vending machine, no security. No one was watching except the Almighty God. Customers were expected to pick up a pack of batter, open the chiller, pick up their favorite food, drop the money in the money box next to it. You can see that in the picture. Go home and have a healthy breakfast. Customers were surprised. They couldn't believe it. It got us a great brand mileage. Our campaign video went really viral. Initially when we started, we were receiving monopoly currency instead of the real currency. But we kept on trying. We didn't stop. Later on, the same customers who were cheating us started putting the 500 rupees note and made up for the losses that we made. That made my day. The same customer was feeling guilty. So this is the kind of campaign we run. Now, many of you would think this is a crazy idea. But I can tell you this is a profitable business. We made better money per store than a retail store. Better revenue and better profitability than retail store from these stores. Indians are trustworthy. Don't worry about it. This idea was rated as the best food marketing idea in 2016. We were actually trying to create a brand which just has customers in the heart, not just in the tummy. So my message to you, my third message to you is trust others. So they'll trust you. Be the change you wish to see in this world. Last August, we took an unconventional pack takeover. We introduced a tricolor pack, which was a super hit across. It can tell you stores started stocking our product for decorating their stores. We have created a one minute video, the one that I just saw, by spending 1,40,000 rupees. And I think I'm 8 to see a person who has not seen that video yet. That went so viral. I think that shows about the power of innovation. I'm coming to my last story. We are current time. I'm very passionate about this new idea. We just launched this in market a few weeks ago. In my beautiful village in Kerala, we are a group of hundreds of families living there for generations of different region. We have a church, a temple and a mosque in my village. My dad knows every single member of my village. I know most of them. We share our coffee. We play together. My neighbors visit us for our festivals. We have a very strong bonding. And now live in a beautiful gator community in Whitefield, Bangalore. But I barely know any of my neighbors. I barely know anybody in the community. Though we are an advanced civilization living in metros, we are missing the goodness of community life that is prevalent in villages and smaller towns. This is where we feel strongly that we should do something about it. If we have to make this world a better place, the first step is to know your neighbors better, spend time with them and share the joy. What is the best way to know your neighbor? We thought it is to share a meal. We are now launched this concept in Indian cities. All you need to do is to invite your neighbors for a breakfast. And inform us. My team will deliver ID products free of cost. I mean it is free. You know, you are all thinking right. Some people could misuse it and use it for those personal gains. That's okay. We trust them. I genuinely believe that if we all spend time to know each other, the world will become a better place. People like you and me need to take the first step in for making a peaceful world. This campaign is available for under two weeks. So please don't miss it. Please use. This is free. And who knows? This could be the future. Why not? Can I request you to play the innovation video? Innovation. It's all about simplicity. Understanding people. Solving problems. And of course, common sense. Once upon a time, busy consumers bought their wet batter from small shops. Then along came a group of entrepreneurs who asked the simple question, why should eating your favorite food be a compromise? And so after nine months of painstaking R&D, tons of batter and thousands of trials, I.D. Idli and dosa batter was born with a formula that could be mass produced using no soda, preservatives or chemicals and no compromise to the traditional authenticity of homemade batter. Fast forward a few years, batter soon became a branded commodity sold in plain old pouches. Idli knew its customers loved its batter and idli's and dosa's. But what about the overall usage experience? Not so much. Enter the new Idli batter bank, inspired by a boat with a larger base and adjusted center of gravity. Making it stable, self-standing and therefore versatile and highly functional. Idli even co-designed a wet grinder no bigger than the home version, which turns out 1500 gaes of batter an hour with absolutely no compromise to the only magic of wet batter. Innovation born out of common sense. Let's talk Barotas. Crispy, fluffy layers of yumminess that need handmade skill. So how did Idli's R&D teams meet the challenges of scaling up? A proprietary machine that mimics handmade layered Barotas. Authentic, delicious, just how people love them. Uncommon challenge, common sense. Common sense is how we entered the crowded paneer market. Not with a me too, but with home fresh paneer made using only lemon juice. No chemicals or acids, just natural, fresh. Common sense paneer. A few years ago, Idli wondered if there was a way to reward consumers for trusting it with their family meals. And so was born the Idli Trust Shop. The world's first branded unmanned unsupervised retail outlet. Consumers at apartment complexes and offices could take home Idli food and pay for it later in part or in full. Trust was the currency. Independence Day 2017. Idli decided to pay tribute to our armed forces martyrs with a brave and highly unconventional pack takeover. How better to inspire our consumers than our most visible medium, our packs. South India's favorite snack was also the hardest to make, the vada. So what did Idli do? We invented a pack that shapes batter into vadas. Common sense innovation that identified an age-old problem and solved it. Now everybody can vada. This year, Idli will focus on building communities and camaraderie, as it brings people in residential complexes together to bond over breakfast means of its natural fresh food. Idli is today a hundred million dollar brand innovation drive sense. Common sense drive eviction drive sense to serve our consumers natural traditional food Hope Reservators all can promise. Thank you. It is such a coincidence. Today a young boy who started working as a cooly in a remote village of Vinod in Kerala for whom having breakfast was a luxury runs a company that serves world's best breakfast Idli's two million then Saturday. Let me summarize my messages to you. Use common sense to understand sensory old problems and use common sense to solve it. Do not complicate. Think of simple ways to solve complicated problems. If you want people to trust you, you trust them so that they will trust you back. Be the change you wish to see in this world. Before I end my speech, I would like to leave you with this final message in a beautiful video. It's a tribute to the most important person in our life. Watch on. Thank you and Jai Hind. Anything urgent? Why didn't you pick up? Why you've been sick and you didn't even tell me? I just want to disturb you. Mom very stressed at work. I can't talk right now. Anything urgent? Ladies and gentlemen, can I hear a big round of applause? You know what? I don't know what you're going to do tonight. But I know what I'm going to do tonight. I'm going to go home. I'm going to pick up ID Vada Bhattar before I go home. Vada Bhattar. And I want to tell you this PC. Your Bhattar is not Bhattar. Or Bhattar need Vastegi. The news is lying. Ladies and gentlemen, on that note, that was really inspiring. Thank you Mr. Sopha. And I would request you to stay back on stage because we've got a memo coming up out here. Like to invite on stage Mr. Satya Pratadas, head strategic alliances, lecture media to hand over a token of appreciation to Mr. Mustafa. Can I hear a big round of applause? All right. Ladies and gentlemen, although we're getting terribly late, but there's a clamor for questions. So I'll take a couple of questions, right? Anybody else? I think she had a go at the last speaker. Anybody else who wants to go? You want to go? You can do without a mic. I trust you. Yeah. I just want to start by saying hashtag respect for the humble background she started and how far you took it away. Thank you. So my only question is, how do we delete those without chutney? Good question. But I have a clever answer for it. Keep it off. We had chutney. We had a lot of chutney. Probably worse than chutney. But it didn't do well in the market. Okay. So let me ask you a question in your front bay.  Which place? Plenty of places, nothing interesting. Sagar, any Sagar, right? How much do you pay for a plate of idli? It's constantly inflating like... 30 rupees? Yeah, 30, 35. Plate of three idli? Two. Two idli. 15 rupees per idli? Yeah. Do you buy idli batter? I don't cook at home, so I haven't. So people who buy idli batter pay 70 rupees per kg of idli batter. In that case, around 20 to 23 idli on average. That's around 3 rupees per idli. Good value for money, right? Of course. Instead of 15 rupees, you end up paying 3 rupees. How much do you pay for chutney? Nothing. That's it. That's it. That's the issue. People don't want to pay for it. They want it free. Couldn't wash it. Yeah, yeah. Go on, please. I don't know how has it been received abroad because you've been invited to a lot of foreign lectures and research R&D programs abroad, so how did it happen? So we launched idli in UAE, around three years ago. Today, UAE contributes around 25% revenue and 100% of the profits. Hello. He's soon launching it in other markets. Hello. Hi. So my question is, what's the story behind the name idli? That's it. Largest story behind it. When we were looking for a name, when we were thinking about a name, my cousin coined idli. He actually meant or he was assuming it is idli dosa. But then I was working with Intel at that day. I was on the way back to my home from Intel in that meeting in Tipassandra near the Ganesha Temple. So I had my id card. So I thought it was idli and that's how I interpreted idli. So that's how the name was born, idli. Cute name, right? All right, ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question. And I hear a big, big, big round of applause. P.C. Bustapa on stage.


hey there friends thanks for checking in yesterday a viewer named Walter contacted me and said you need to report on this story there is a representative for the state of Missouri who is who has created a bill that requires all residents between the ages of 18 and 34 to purchase an AR-15 and then they will get tax credits for that purchase now I thought that was kind of funny I looked into it I'm thinking maybe it was a hoax or something like that but I look today and it's all over the news this the state rep Republican Andrew McDaniel he's a former sheriff's deputy he created a bill that states just that all residents between the ages of 18 and 34 have one year to purchase an AR-15 and then they would get tax credits for that and I love it because it's making big news and now he acknowledges that and we acknowledge that the likelihood of this bill passing is extremely small like it right at this point in time it has no co-sponsors and there is no scheduled hearing to even put this up for debate but what he is doing is very tactful he even said or it was reported that he said that the absurdity of the anti-gun politicians and the way they just throw stuff out there like if this has an expanding stock if this has a muzzle hider flash hider if this has a you know this type of trigger you know this ban this if it has armor piercing ammo ban it ban it and they do this all the time so we look at this we say well you can't require or mandate somebody to purchase a rifle if they don't want to you can't tell somebody where to spend the money right and we know that that's a violation but it's the same token why is it that the anti-gunners do this all the time they know they are going to propose legislation that is never going to pass they know that but it gets people like us all riled up we get on in front of our cameras we share stuff all over the place saying can you believe this is going on he's sticking it in the eye of them that's what he's doing and it's working it's generating the the attention that I'm not sure he wanted or expected but I love it I think it's I think it's excellent you know if you're going to propose all these crazy anti-gun bills then our side is going to propose things like this where you have to purchase in air 15 within one year now he's calling this the McDaniel militia act I love the name of that bill because militia is a a term that has been misused so many times so often by the media militia is a good thing it is typically people who are are interested in forming and gathering and planning security for their communities they are not people who are looking to overthrow the government the way the media portrays them and they talk about absurdity they have really done a hatchet job on militias and I live in Michigan we have many militias throughout the state outstanding people they provide a service for their community but when you listen to these idiot media outlets they have no idea what they're talking about and so they really disparage the militias who provide a service so this is the McDaniel militia act and so I love it I think it's great and I'm actually going to make an attempt to contact this guy and interview him and share it with you guys to see what his main intention is but I'm pretty sure he's looking to stick in the eye of the anti-gunners and so far he's doing a great job if you like videos like this please subscribe and share I always appreciate thumbs up button thanks for watching and you guys be safe


Please join us in welcoming Sardic love to deliver this session. Hey, everybody is Sardic love here I'm thrilled to be with you here in the champions of talent development conference and today's session how to effortlessly create massive participant engagement in live virtual instructor-led training I am looking forward to sharing this with you because if you follow this framework, I promise you you will wow any virtual audience


Let's take a look at an example of how to use the trapezoidal rule to approximate an area under a curve. Here we want to approximate the integral of sine of x dx from 0 to pi, and we're going to use four subdivisions to do that. So let's take a look at the graph of the function first and just talk about what it is we're trying to do. So here we have a graph of the function sine of x, 0 is of course on the left, pi is here on the far right, pi over 2 is right here in the middle, and we want to use four subdivisions to try to approximate the area under this curve. Now with the trapezoidal rule you will recall that those subdivisions are of equal width, meaning that our trapezoids all have the same height. Therefore the first trapezoid is going to end here at pi over 4, the second one ends at pi over 2, the third one will end at 3 pi over 4, and the last one will end at pi. So let's start setting up our formula. Recall that the trapezoidal rule is only an approximation for the area under the curve, hence the need for your approximately equal to symbol. Of course the two little swigglies is perfectly acceptable for use for your approximately equal to symbol. If you think about how the trapezoidal rule goes, it's based of course on the formula for area of a trapezoid, which we know to be one half height times the sum of the basis. We know we need to have a half in there. Now the height of each of these trapezoids, if you were to be looking at these trapezoids, sort of sideways, this would be the bottom of the first trapezoid. The first one's not even a trapezoid. It almost looks like a triangle. That would be the first trapezoid. The second trapezoid ends here. Second trapezoid is maybe a better example. So the height of each one, if you turn your head to the left and look at these sideways, the height of each trapezoid is going to be pi over 4. Remember you can get that by doing, according to the formula, B minus A over N. N is the number of subdivisions. So in this case, we have pi minus 0 over 4, thus yielding the pi over 4 that we know is the height of each of these trapezoids. The third one would go like this. And once again, if you turn your head sideways to the left, the height of that is pi over 4. So you can see, if you do tilt your head to the left, that the height of each of these trapezoids is indeed pi over 4. Returning then to the setup of our formula, we have the one-half from the equation for the area of a trapezoid times the height, which in this case is pi over 4 for each of those trapezoids. Now remember, we have to start into the lengths of the top and bottom bases of each trapezoid. Now the first quote-unquote base of the first trapezoid is going to be given to us by the function value at 0. And if we return to our picture for a second, remember how that first trapezoid sort of has morphed into a triangle. So here is 0, so pretty much the height of that first base of the first trapezoid is 0. Now the other base of the first trapezoid is going to be given to us by the function value at pi over 4. But remember, this base right here, not only is it the bottom base of the first trapezoid, it's the top base of the second trapezoid. So that's why you might recall that you start doubling these lengths. Therefore, added to f of 0, we're going to have two times the function value at pi over 4. Because that accounts for the bottom of the first trapezoid and the top of the second trapezoid. To that, we have to add two times the function value at pi over 2. That would be this length right here. And that is accounting for the bottom base of the second trapezoid and the top base of the third trapezoid. Similarly, we're going to have two times the function value at 3 pi over 4. That would be this length right here, which is the bottom base for the third trapezoid and the top base of the fourth trapezoid, of which has also morphed into a triangle. That base of the last trapezoid only gets used once, so we end by adding in f of pi. Now you're going to want to evaluate this in your graphing calculator and by using your graphing calculator features. Under y equals, you'll want to put sine of x, and then we're going to go back to our quit screen, second mode. Let's just focus first on the calculations of the f of 0 plus 2 times f of pi over 4, etc. So we want to tell the calculator to evaluate that function at 0 first. So recall to do that. If you hit vars, then go across the top to y-vars and into the first option there for function. Remember our equation is stored under y1, so you'll want to bring up y1. And next to that you'll have 0. It looks very much like your f of x notation, y1 of 0. So this is telling the calculator to evaluate the function we have under y1 at 0. Plus 2 times, now we need to do the same thing for y1 of pi over 4. So we hit vars across the top to y-vars into function, y1, and in parentheses we will have pi over 4. And we're just going to continue typing it in like that. Now we have 2 times. Now we need y1 of pi over 2. So it should look like that for you. Plus 2 times. Now we need the function value at 3 pi over 4. And then finally remember the last one is simply the function value at pi. We're not multiplying that by 2. So hopefully you get that out of your answer. Now remember we have not yet multiplied by the 1 half or the pi over 4 in the front. So we do need to do that. So I'm going to take this answer, times it by a half. I'll just type it in as 0.5. And then also we need to multiply by pi over 4. That was the height of each trapezoid. So our final answer in the end is approximately 1.896. This then would be the approximation for that area under the curve.


We're here at ITU Telecom World 2013 in Bangkok and I've got the great pleasure of being joined by Mr Tari Pekko, who is Chief Executive of the Botswana Communications Regulatory Authority, or BOKRA. Mr Pekko, thank you very much indeed for being with us today. Thank you for inviting me to the interview. I'd like to start off by talking about the events theme, embracing change in a digital world. Where do you see the biggest opportunities in that change for the industry and for society? And what are the biggest challenges in your opinion? Well, I think we're coming from a traditional voice technology now moving into the cloud. And I think at the end of the day really what is even more critical is that the speed of the internet will be the way to go. And in terms of the digital economy, I see that the rest of the world is actually moving in that direction. So there is no sort of like the rich or poorer, but one thing that one can actually embrace is that once you've got the human brains and people can do what they believe is right, it can be taken to the next level. And how is Botswana embracing that change? Because we have developed the national broadband strategy, and this national broadband strategy is to ensure that we have a clear path as to exactly what we need to do to embrace the digital economy. And we expect that in the next two years or so we'll be able to tap into this phenomenal change in our life. And I think one of the things that we've been very ambitious is that in terms of the internet speed, we've made it very clear that the bare minimum that people can have is 10 megabytes moving forward so that we can have a high speed technology moving forward. So broadband is very much key for you? Broadband is very much key because the country is huge and what we want to do is to connect the society throughout and just to make sure that at the end of the day there is a defined path or strategy as to how best you can actually get everybody moving forward. Because of course I presume there's a big difference between the cities and the rural areas? Yes, there is. I think the concept of the digital divide it's more important that you know you got the rural and you also have the urban. And we want to have one country connected by the technology. And you know our government has actually invested heavily on the undersea cable or submarine cables both in the east and in the west. And these high speed cables they will be able to ensure that we give the last mile to the community. I think that's really the crack of the matter to make sure that the last mile and how do you do it and the challenge is that how do we do it and training people will be a good thing moving forward. It's always that last mile that's the most difficult, isn't it? Yes it is. I wanted to ask you finally in terms of attending events such as these what's the value of attending events such as ITU Telecom World? There are about three things actually. You meet people that you have never met before and there's a very very robust debate here. People actually saying things that you know they can assist you to take the you know your own country moving forward. In the last debate that I actually participated in I mean I was asked a simple question what is it that you would like to have? I said you know content and application is the way to go. But when you say content what is it that the people in your own society want and the technology that comes with it? Can you apply it to be used in the same society that you're in? And again you know it's a holistic of issues here and one thing that I think was very very pleasing was just to see people actually coming together debating matters that we never thought that would be debated. Mr Peko thank you very much indeed for being with us today. Thank you very much. It's been a great pleasure. Thank you.


Aloha, I'm Kirsten Baumgart-Turner and this is Sustainable Hawaii, airing live every Tuesday at noon at thinktechkawaii.com. Today we're talking about the potential for a sustainable land transportation system on the island of Kauai. Back in 1991, I helped the county of Kauai and its private sector partners develop an overall economic development plan in which citizens envision the island as a model for sustainable transportation, amongst other things. Twenty-five years later, then-mayor and 20-year Kauai County Council member Joanne Yukimura is still striving to turn that vision into reality. While mayor, she started Kauai's public transportation system, the Kauai Bus, which has grown substantially over the last decade. Recently, as presenting chair of the Council's Housing and Transportation Committee, she was instrumental in securing monies for the Kauai Multimodal Land Transportation Plan. The unstoppable graduate of Stanford University and the University of Washington Law School is here to tell us about this cutting-edge plan. Welcome, Councilmember Yukimura. Aloha, Kirsten, and Aloha to your audience. We appreciate you coming from Kauai to keep us all informed of the latest in cutting-edge initiatives on Kauai. And we know that this is such a hot topic for Hawai'i in general as we try to meet our 100-percent renewable energy goals. Tell us a little bit about this plan, and I think you've brought it with you. Well, let me just say that our transportation or our traffic problems are not as bad as O'ahu, and we're trying, but we do have big problems. We're on a two-lane system, basically, which was built when our population was 30,000, and now it's 70,000. So there are major delays and major congestion, at least from our standpoint and our standard of a rural community. I do remember when I lived on Kauai beginning in 1988, there was one traffic light. Yes. But that was one of the most attractive things about Kauai. There are many more and many more lanes to the highways now. Kauai is very different now than back then, and so we actually have a big problem. I would say the traffic congestion is one of the biggest problems on the island. It's linked to the economy and whether we can operate with goods and services, and it very much affects people as they try to do their daily activities, such as going to work, going to the doctors, going to plays and cultural activity. And it's certainly affecting tourism. I know that there's often commentaries on Yelp about the traffic on Kauai, as well as O'ahu, of course. So the challenge for us is how do we solve our traffic problem? When we look at O'ahu, we don't think that just building bypasses and doubling or adding lanes is going to get us to a place where traffic flows well. And so we do have a different approach. I don't know that it's anywhere else in the state right now, and so we did a plan in 2013 the council adopted this Kauai multimodal land transportation plan, and it outlines in a very thorough way another approach. And that approach is to keep vehicle miles traveled flat or stable and not see it grow. And the next graph that we'll see shows what our goal is. You can see that it shows the millions of miles per year that are traveled in vehicles on the island, vehicle miles traveled. And if we go with a baseline scenario where a business as usual, it'll go from 771 million to 914 million miles over the next 20 years. If we do the preferred route, we will keep the number of miles traveled by vehicles basically flat. And how we're going to do that is called mode shift. And that's the next chart coming up. We're going to shift the mode of travel. You can see that in 2010, the single occupant vehicle, SOV, and the multiple occupant vehicle, or actually it's multiple occupant auto, took up more than 90% of the number of trips made on the island, whereas transit walking and bicycling were much, much less. If we implement our multi-modo land transportation plan by 2035, you will see a substantial drop in the single occupancy vehicle and multiple occupant auto. Even though it's still the same, we will double our walking, transit, and bicycling. Actually almost triple those modes of travel. And by doing that, we think we can keep vehicle miles traveled less and therefore have much better flow and mobility on our island. So the multi-modal transportation plan then must involve development plans as you move forward with any new residential units or tourism units, that this would involve incorporating in that a much more walking community, perhaps the complete streets model? Create streets is an integral part of this mode shift, where we create streets that are not made just for cars, but also give fair access and safe access to bicyclists, pedestrians, and transit. And we also have to land use and transportation are inextricably intertwined. And so we will also need to place our housing close to jobs and services. In fact, our plan says you cannot do it by mode shift alone. You have to also change our land use planning and not have these long commutes, but have people be able to walk or bike to work or short car or transit trips. So it's also part of the approach of transit-oriented development so that people's trips are shortened as much as possible. And the only way to do that is with land planning. And how is this then intertwined with the general plan development on Koi? Well we are right now updating our general plan, but basically it's about where we locate our housing and we want to locate it close to services. So actually we just finished our Lihue community plan and that is seen as the main area for growth of housing. Because we know that transportation costs really affect total housing costs. You might get a affordable house, but if it's far away from where you work, that cost has to be factored in and can really affect household income. And that doesn't even mention what you discussed earlier, which is a drop in productivity as people have to commute longer. I know that that's the difficulty for people on the west side of Oahu right now is huge loss in productivity sitting in traffic. Or the families on the big island, where the parent leaves before the children wake up to go to school and come back after the children are in bed. It's not just about productivity, but it's about family, time, and quality of life. You know, on Kauai we don't have as long distances, but the long commutes and the traffic congestion do, I mean not the long or the time, the long time, the commutes being stuck in traffic do affect our quality of life tremendously. And also, so in order to do that, we have to, oh, thank you, look at this chart. That explains how much capacity of road you can free up when you shift the mode. That shows I think 60 cars with 60 people in each car. All the riders are gathered in a cluster, but those people in one in each car in the middle photo will take up a lot of road space, whereas if they were in a bus, that's 60 people outside of a bus, you can see how much road space you free up. And bicycles on the right hand side shows you also how shifting to the bike mode frees up road space. And that kind of conceptualizes the approach of the multimodal plan. And I would think that also gives a tremendous sense of relief in terms of oppressive density of space. You know, people will have a much greater sense of open space when you start rolling those cars. Well, I would call it more open roads. And I mean, that's what people are looking for, that's what we need. In order to do that, I want to say that we will have to grow the bus system actually by a thousand percent. Our plan shows that, and we can go to the transit growth chart, but it shows that we'll move from 1641 trips weekly. Those are our weekly fixed route transit ridership. In 2010, we will have to increase that by to 18,000 trips per week. And that's a major, major growth spurt that we have to do. But the good news is that we don't have to convince people to get into a bus. What we found is when we increased services such as when we in 2013, 2011, we went from, we extended bus service from six o'clock at night till 10 o'clock at night and we created weekend service. The ridership skyrocketed because now people could actually do things on the bus. They could go to work and they could come home from work, you know, things like that. And so it's not about creating demand for bus services. It's about providing services and the demands there and people will ride if it's convenient and easy to use. It's interesting. One of the things we discovered when I was helping my partner's work on the Whistler Sustainability Plan in Whistler, Canada, and similarly a very tourist-oriented economy, was that if we provided a bus service that was maximum 10-minute wait, then people would ride it and use it all the time. If they had to wait 11 minutes or 12 minutes, they wouldn't take it. So it's, again, exactly what you're saying is that as long as you're meeting people's needs, which is one of the major tenets of sustainability that we're meeting everyone's needs equally, and that applies to sustainable transportation. So that means that with the Kauai bus you're not only going to have to add buses, but you're going to have more frequency of those stops and those routes. Frequency, as you just pointed out, is one of the keys. We also need shelters. Right now people stand in the hot sun or rain and the elderly don't have a place to sit down in most of our bus stops, but we're embarking on creating shelters at 50 bus stops. I know that's small here in Oahu, but for us that's big. And the indicators, I just saw that on the screen. Let's go to that now. This plan, if followed, will be sustainable because if you look at the fourth line down, annual gallons of motor fuel consumed, and compared to the 2010 level, which is the first column, the baseline in the next column shows that the fuel consumed, if we just do business as usual, will be about 13%. And that's because of car efficiency and electric cars and that kind of thing. But if we do the mode shift and the implement the multimodal plan, we're going to reduce fuel consumption by 27%. Wow. More than double. Yes. And that's a goal I've heard nationally to reduce fuel consumption. And then if you go further down to annual greenhouse gas emissions, we will be, instead of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, it's related to efficiency. By 13%, we're going to reduce it also by 27%. That's why this is a sustainability plan, because it's going to actually impact those sustainability indicators. And that proves the point that we often make, which is efficiency first. Before we need to have technical renewable energy applications and other things, we've got to start being more efficient and reduce our consumption. Yes. So that's without any renewable energy technical applications like more electric vehicles or perhaps sun fuel. And more renewable fuel. And besides that, there are so many more other indicators that are going to move. And if we can go back to that sheet, you will see that fatalities, it's fourth from the bottom, fatalities from motor vehicle collisions per 100 million BMT will, if we go with business as usual, we will have no drop in fatalities. But if we go with the preferred scenario under the multimodal plan, there'll be a 15% drop in fatalities. And you can see the weekday transit ridership just below that will move from 1,600 trips to 1,000% increase to that 18,000 trips a week. And what I love is below that percent of adults meeting minimum levels of physical activity. This is a health plan as well for a healthier community. And you can see that we were at 50% of adults having minimal levels of physical activity in 2010. If we go with the baseline business as usual, there'll be no increase. But if we go with the preferred plan, there'll be a 32% increase. We're going to take a short break. And when we come back, let's explore that a little bit more about healthy lifestyles as a result of good planning. We'll be right back with Sustainable Hawaii. Aloha, I'm Carl Campania. I hope you please visit us this summer. It's a wonderful summer. It's actually a cooler summer than we're used to. But I hope that you come back and visit us and watch our show, Education Movers, Shakers, and Reformers here on Think Tech Hawaii. It's at noon every Wednesday. See you then. Hello, I'm Marianne Sasaki. Welcome to Think Tech Hawaii, where some of the most interesting conversations in Honolulu go on. I have a show on Wednesdays from one to two called Life in the Law, where we discuss legal issues, politics, governmental topics, and a whole host of issues. I hope you'll join me. Aloha! The University of Hawaii football team under Rolovic is going to kick butt this season. In case you didn't understand me, the University of Hawaii football team is going to kick butt under Rolovic this season. So be sure to follow us on Think Tech Hawaii and Hibachi Top. I'll be at every game. And remember, Aloha! Hi, we're back with Sustainable Hawaii and we're talking about sustainable land transportation solutions on the island of Kauai. And former Mayor Joanne Yukimura, current council member and chair of the Housing and Transportation Committee, has been telling us about the Kauai Multimodal Land Transportation Plan. When we left off, we were talking about the health impacts of good transportation planning. Well, the multimodal plan, which I think is the only multimodal land transportation plan in the state, is a health plan because it shifts the mode from the single occupancy vehicle to what they call active transportation, which is biking, walking and transit. Because people have to walk to the transit stops and back from the transit stops. And so it produces healthier people. And as we saw in the indicators, if we can get that back on the screen, there's going to be, oh, the Think Tech Hawaii is kind of covering it up. The last line there, the average annual household transportation cost? Well, just the percentage of adults meeting the minimum levels of physical activity is going to increase by 32%. Wow. And that's very significant. And then as you pointed out, the other really great benefit of this plan and of this mode shift that we want to do is the average household transportation cost. You'll see that under the baseline scenario, it'll go up 15%. If we continue just driving cars, and as we all know the cost of oil and fuel gas will go up at some point, there's a projected 15% increase in average annual household transportation cost. Is that if the costs remain level at current cost of running an automobile? I think it anticipates a little fuel cost increase, but I'm sure it doesn't anticipate the really high possibilities. But look at the preferred scenario. The last figure at the bottom is a 6% decrease in household transportation costs. And I want to tell the story about my friend, John, who is a park ranger for the county. He lives in Waimea, commutes to work in Lihue every week. And he used to pay $350 a month gas money to do the commute by car. Now he rides the bus with an annual pass that costs $400, which is $33 a month. So he's actually saving about $3,000 a year. Another bus rider said, that's like a pay raise. That's like a great vacation that he can take on that money. Yes, that's right. And that's the kind of savings this sustainable transportation system will bring to our people. Does that transportation plan also include allowance for more electric vehicle charging and other things? It does, but boy, I mean, I just went to one hotel on our island and I have a leaf, an electric car, and the chargers were all broken. So, you know, and there's no public charger on the west side, because there's no place with 200 cars, which I think is the requirement. So, you know, I'm watching very closely the implementation for electric cars, and I'm not sure that we can rely on that to solve our transportation problems. Plus, if it's still single occupant vehicles, we have parking problems, we have car costs, we still have the old system. That's only one slice. Yeah, only one slice of the answer, and plus that is very specific to a certain slice of the population that can afford those cars. Right. Absolutely. So, public transportation is a broader solution and a more socially just solution. So, the major problem with implementing this plan is we don't have any money. And it's going to take money to have buses coming more frequently to put up erect bus shelters, to put Wi-Fi on the bus, which is one of our plans, to have some park and ride. And so, that is the major challenge for me and others who want to see this system become reality. What is the estimated cost for full implementation of the plan? I don't know, because what we're doing right now is a short-term plan, a five-year plan, which is going to give us more money. But I can tell you, in 2011, when we went from six o'clock to ten o'clock at night and weekend service, which is every two hours, which is very difficult, it cost us a million dollars more in operating money. And that's why we need a, we can't do it on one-shot grants or capital. So, you didn't get enough revenue to cover that increased operating cost? We did. And the ridership skyrocketed. But now we have to go to the next level, which is probably every half hour on some of our really crowded routes.  And that cost $600,000, so, you know, more every year. So you need the upfront cost, but you have faith that the revenue will cover those costs? Well, I lobbied for a half percent excise tax because it's a regular funding source just like the city has for their rail. And to the legislature's credit, they gave all the neighbour island counties half percent the option of a half percent tax. And I'm so sorry to report that none of the counties exercised that option, which expired on July 1st a few days ago. And why is that? Why did it expire? No, why did they opt out of it? Because they're saying nobody wants tax increases. And I heard the public differently. I heard the bus riders say, we will pay that tax. We actually downsize it to a quarter percent tax, so it would have been $0.25 on every hundred dollars purchased. And it was regressive. It would hurt the poor families, but if you use it for transit, those are the families who would get the benefit. So it's actually not regressive when you look at the full impact and life cycle cost of the excise tax? Well, in the long run, as we make it more available for more families, you know, because right now just a small percentage of our families use it. So by making it more available, we will allow more of them to use it. So the rest of the regressivity will get less and less. So in other words, those people who can't use it now because of the lack of available timing, for example, those who might work at a hotel and need to get on the bus late at night or early in the morning when it's not running, would then be allowed to use it. So therefore the tax would be less regressive because they'd reap benefit once the service was put in place. Well, the thing to remember is transit, when well done, benefits everyone because it clears the road. It helps our economy function better. It has health benefits. It has household income benefits. It has fatality, you know, accident level. I mean, we saw those indicators and there's multiple benefits that come not just to the riders but to the society as a whole. That's why I think it's so justified to use the excise tax wisely for transit. So if that's not an option at least for this year, what are some of the options, other options for funding? Are there federal dollars available for this kind of cutting edge planning? No. The federal government, we just increased our road system from two lanes to four lanes between Lihui and the community college, which is two miles. And it did wonders for the traffic for two years and now it's all starting to queue up again where the four lanes goes into two lanes. That cost for two miles to widen it cost $80 million. So when you compare the cost to the taxpayer of widening the roads for a very short-term benefit to the cost of perhaps a quarter per $100, 25 cents per $100 in a rise in the excise tax, there's really a no-brainer argument for going with this kind of planning. But the federal funding still favors roads over transit and so we could have used that $80 million to have that $1 million expansion for 80 years. I mean, so we have to begin to change our policies, I believe, but also at the local level we have to use those monies well if they're made available. So what do you want your audience and particularly your constituents on Kauai to do to try and help you support implementation of this plan? What is the next step to get it funded? I don't know right now because that excise tax, I went to get the excise tax power because there aren't that many other sources of funding for this transit system. And that's why I was so disappointed when on our island we had a bill for it and it lost by one vote.  So one thing people can do is they can go up to their legislators and their council members and say, you know, we don't like taxes but we want a better future for our island. We need a better transportation system and we are willing to pay $0.25 for every $100 purchase to have a better system because this is going to be better for us and our children. And the generations before us made far bigger sacrifices for a good future. So please vote for a good future for us and fund this expansion because if we don't the cost to quality of life to our economy to our families is going to be huge. Well Joanne, thank you so much for coming and sharing this really important planning element for Kauai. And I hope our listeners will come back and join us next Tuesday at 12 o'clock for Sustainable Hawaii.


We figured out that we need a program such as just a program who leads you and find you the best mentor for you Because you are as an entrepreneur. You are in a very small community But the programs such as just and other programs who support entrepreneurs, especially females and women They have just can can give you that kind of intersection between Interest of your program and other people and can match you with new opportunities that you didn't aware that you were not That you didn't know that you have You


So this is joint work with Hugo Bazil, Eric Faber and Blazianist, all three from REN, and Hugo was supposed to come and present the talk here, but he ditched, which means that I get to present it. So I made him give me his thesis slides, so Hugo is a PhD student who is just graduating, and this is going to be based on his slides. So as promised to Benjamin, so I have about 15 minutes of the main whatever, to give you an idea of what the problem is, what is interesting, why you should be interested in it and so on, and in the remaining time I will go into the details. So at that time you can stop me whenever you want, right? All right. So the outline of the talk broadly will be this. I'd like to start with the model, look at some, the problem that we are considering, what are our results, and what are our approaches, and then towards the end I'll try to discuss a little bit about related work as well as to extend this to some settings, and what were more applied settings from security. So the basic motivation of our model comes from imperfect information. I mean, the exact state may not be known of an underlying system, and this could be because of various reasons. You may want to hide the state, maybe there is a lot of noise, maybe the sensor only looks at one level and so on, and so you have many examples of such states. As I told you, these things are all REN specific. So this is an automatic driverless vehicle which is running around the campus there, and we tried putting our feet in front to see whether it would stop and it did. So somewhere it is doing something. You could have a lot of examples of imperfect information, and the question is looking at only the observable information coming out of this system, what can we recover from it? This is a classical kind of problem, and we want to look at it in one specific setting. Indeed, the generic kind of statement would be that, if I am given an observation, can I figure out which system produced this? So for instance, take a randomly generated sequence. Yeah, I think all of you know about this sequence, and the question is which stochastic system produced it? On the right is a deep neural net which generates statements randomly, and on the left is another stochastic process, and we don't know which one produced it, and our goal is, for instance, to figure out who could have said this, right? So with that as the motivation, I think we can start with the real talk. So this is going to be the funnest that you'll get. So more formally, the classical model, one classical model that people have been looking at is on hidden Markov models where you can consider a Markov chain, which is a bunch of states with probability over the transitions, and the hidden Markov models typically, there is a signal which is being emitted at every state, and very often it is assumed that the signal is stochastic. So there is some probability associated with which the signal is emitted, and there is a probability associated with which the transitions are taken, and as always from one state to go, the sum of the outgoing probabilities to go to another state, except to one, classical, right? And but we will very soon look at kind of a, also a formal model, but of a labeled Markov chain where we abstract away and we consider the labels to be on the transitions rather than being on the states. Is that fine? Yeah, so slight modification, and the reason is that in the, let's say, automated theory community, a lot of people have looked at this, whereas the first one comes more from a motivation of the AI ML community. So in some sense, one of the goals of this work, as I will say a bit later, is also to bridge the gap between the way the problems are looked at. Yeah, so as written here, this is often looked at automatic control, this is often used in formal methods, and one can easily see that expressively they are about the same. You can always, like you can basically add one more step and say that, okay, if this is emitted with probability one, I can actually break it and write that probability on the state. So I won't go into the exact translation, but this is not very difficult to see, right? So all we are saying is that I can encode that as like a partial step in between, right? So then the question is really that if I tell you that there is a bunch of systems, a one to a k, right? And in particular, we will start with two systems because otherwise we can always do a pair-wise comparison. I give you two systems and an observation which has been produced. What is an observation? These labels which have been emitted because we made the assumption that these are letters, this is a word over this alphabet, is that fine? All right, so given a bunch of observations, I want you to tell me which of the systems produced it, all right, is the setting clear? So what we have is a bunch of, and for my talk I will keep just two, but I can always extend it. So I have two hidden Markov models, but again I'm going to look at only labeled Markov chains and I'm starting here and one of the two has happened, right? So what is known to the observer? We know the system, so we know the structure of the system. What we don't know is which choice was made, is that fine, that's important, right? So for instance, suppose I see the sequence B, B, B, B, A, what would you conclude? Of course it belongs to A1 because only A1 has A, A1 has no A, right? And, but indeed in this example, can you always do that? So there is a word for which you cannot figure out who produced it, right? If I just generate a bunch of Bs, then I don't know who produced it, is this fine? All right. So one can think of different ways of defining the classification problem and we will look at some variants. Again, there is a lot of literature on many different variants and again, depending on which community you belong to, you may have come across these with different names, right? And one or two of them I will introduce here, but please look at the paper for more references, yeah? So, given two labeled Markov chains with language of observations, L1 and L2, one question could be that, okay, for any word, any infinite word that I have, for, does there exist a finite prefix, right? For which I can actually say, does it belong to this guy and not that guy? For every word I want to be able to do this, is that clear? So in other words, if I take this, it is not sure because there exists a word for which I cannot figure this out, yeah? This is sure. I mean, I really want to be certain. No matter what comes, I want to be able to say that I will distinguish it and that is not true for this, right? But actually look at the probability measure of the words for which we cannot decide. In this case, it's a probability zero set, right? Because it's exactly one set which is bigger and bigger. I mean, you can take the, as an infinite word, it's a single word, right? So one can immediately, therefore, define almost sure classification where you are saying, okay, fine, I want to actually figure out is the probability set, as a set, is that set of measure one? Is this fine? Okay, so these are two questions, but actually we might be interested in something even more, so if I take this one, so for instance, suppose I take AB and AB, but on the left-hand side, I have 1 tenth and 9 tenth, and on the right-hand side, I have 9 tenth probability of doing A and so with 1 tenth probability, I emit a B, right? So for this one, what do I do? Whereas I would like to be able to, so if I gave you this, if you, what would you do? What would your best guess be? The languages are the same, right? What would you guess? Well, you will try it, right? You will sample it, so in other words, you will try a long enough run and if you see a lot of A's, you will conclude, ah, it must be from the second guy and if you see a lot of B's, you will conclude, okay, yeah, it must be from the first guy, right? And with a high probability, you would be true, right? So that is kind of what we are going to. What we want to capture is this notion of limit sure where we can add a confidence with which we can classify these problems. Is this fine?  Indeed, classifier means that it can make an error, right? I mean, it's not perfect. It need not be a sure classifier. So the question is, when does a classifier exist and when it exists, how do we build it? So when I say classifier, it could be a classifier which satisfies this definition, second definition or the third definition, right? So it turns out that this problem actually unsurprisingly has received a lot of attention. And if you look at the sure classification problem, it was solved long, long ago where it was shown to be in log space. Essentially, the idea is you just take a product of A1 and A2 where you take the product with respect to the actions and you check whether there is a loop which comes, right? Similarly, this problem of almost sure classification is more recent, but it has been again looked at in the language of diagnosis. For those of you who know, again, I won't go into the details. But there is a easy enough proof which shows that this is p-space complete, okay? So the goal of this paper was to, this work was to look at this in-between notion, not in-between, whatever, this other notion of limit sure classification and try to come up with algorithms for it and try to come up with characterizations for it, right? So let's define it formally and while defining it, I'm going to slightly change things, right? So I will say that two labeled Markov chains are limit sure classifiable. If there exists a classifier, remember, a classifier is just a function from sigma star to 1, 2, such that if I see a run of one of the process, then and if the observation that is, so observe of rho is just the labels emitted by rho, right? The probability that I make a mistake, that is, I say that it, the classifier says that it belongs to the other guy when it belongs to process 1, right? This goes to 0 as the length of this goes to infinity. So what I want to say is that as we have more and more statistics, right, on the observation, we should be able to always give the correct answer at the limit. That's what this is saying. Is that fine? Okay, right? So again, this is one way to define it. So yeah, so the probability of misclassification, that is, of making an error, goes to 0 as the length of the run goes to infinity. Okay, good. More examples. This guy exactly satisfies, it's been made to in some sense satisfy this property. And indeed, if the proportion of A is greater than half, I mean, if I see more than half times A, I will report one and otherwise I'll report two and this is my classifier, right? But this classifier has a very common name in, at least the AI and control community and sometimes it's called the maximum a posterior classifier which just says that you look at that, you look at the probability, if the probability of this is greater than that, then you return this. And indeed, what we are saying is that if there exists a limit-sure classifier, then this map classifier, which is kind of the classical one, is a limit-sure classifier. Again, formal proofs I'll let you read the paper, but this is not a very difficult thing to prove, but you can see that that's kind of what we are doing. So if you know that indeed this is possible, that this class, limit-sure classification is possible, then there is a very simple type of classifier which can give you the answer. That's what we are saying, right? So some observations. So notice that the, yeah, this I think we already saw, even though the language, non-probabilistic or non-stochastic language is the same, it can still be classified by looking at the statistics. And this is as different from sure and almost sure, of course. But on the other hand, if for every observation, the probability of observing the observation is the same, then of course you cannot classify it, right? I mean, again, something very trivial, which is that if I'm able to show that two things are equivalent, that is for all words in Sigma star, the probability of seeing one word from a given initial state. So I forgot to write, this is from some Sigma zero. So from a given initial distribution is equal, then this is called, these two languages are said to be equivalent. And indeed, if I know that two languages are probabilistically or statistically equivalent, then I cannot classify them with this limit-sure classifier. The question is, is the converse true? And in general, it's not, right? So actually now, it so turns out, this is again quite classical, and it was already known long time ago that checking equivalence between languages of two LMCs, actually one of them is a LMC, the other paper is on PFS, checking language equivalence is already in polytine, okay? So this is again not very difficult, but I won't go into this, this is not really our result. And this is kind of the base case, right? So we start from here and we say, okay, what else can we do? Right? So I come to the kind of the breakpoint slide. So what we give the results in this paper are, we give a new characterization for limit-sure classification and a polynomial time algorithm to check it, right? And indeed, while to do this, we actually develop a new notion of stationary distributions over labeled Markov chains. What is classically known are stationary distributions over Markov chains? We have to lift it to in kind of in a correct way, what we believe is the right way to lift it to labeled Markov chains and that's what we use as our primitive, right? And in doing so, we are also able to compare with other notions of opacity and distinguishability which have been looked at in other communities. And there we figured out while doing this, that in 2016, this notion of distinguishability was defined by Stephen Kefir and I think Karun Prasad Sisla and they showed already that there is a polynomial time algorithm for this. So it so turns out that our notion of classification for labeled Markov chains coincides with the notion of distinguishability. It's not completely trivial to see that, but you can prove both ways. And as a result, we could have just directly just said, well, it's the same as that and therefore. But nevertheless, we wrote this paper and why was that, A, we had already done the work and B, it was also the case that, oh sorry, it's not written here. So it's also the case that our technique differs quite a lot from the Kefir and Sisla technique. Kefir and Sisla look at, define a metric between probabilistic systems and they prove that when that metric is equal to one, things are indistinguishable, right? Whereas our thing does not go through such metric arguments and we actually use what I would like to say is more of first principles approach, but that's up to you. It depends on what your first principles are, right? So that's kind of one reason to look at it. There are other reasons also. In doing so, we were able to also kind of get a slightly more efficient algorithm, arguably in the number of, so of course both these are p-time because you can encode it as a linear program and the number of variables that we required was slightly fewer than the Kefir-Sisla in the worst case and the other reason was that when, so if you want to think about a security perspective, that is if you want to think about a security domain, then what would you want to talk about? You may want to say that is this really, I mean is this how an attacker would try to classify? What would an attacker do? If he finds, he or she finds that after several attempts, he or she is not able to classify, you would rather take a reset, right? You would say, okay, screw it, I'm going to start again, right? So if you do this, this is what we call attack classification, where we extend this model with the ability of the strategy to do resets. Indeed when I do reset, the player can decide to now take not the first model but the second one, but as long as this is allowed and only finitely many attacks are required in the limit, then we are able to show that this problem, the way we have defined it, we can still show that this problem can be solved in PSPACE. So it's in fact PSPACE complete, whereas this shows a big difference with the notion of indistinguishability from Kefir at all where that problem becomes undecidable, okay? So that's kind of, since I won't have time, I've already told what is in my last slide, so we don't need to go there, right? All right, so in the remaining five minutes that I have, I'm going to go into the details, but at this point, if you have any questions, please ask. Okay, great, all right. So how did we start? So well, we started by actually looking at, we didn't start this way, but this is probably an easy way to start, which is to look at what happens when you are at a stationary distribution of the underlying Markov chain, right? So suppose I look at, so maybe I will skip this slide, I'll go directly to the second slide. Yeah, so this basically, if I take two probabilistic systems, labeled Markov chains, and if I know that they are ergodic, and if I know that the probability mass on all the states is strictly positive, then it turns out that, you remember the trivial direction that we had when we started with, so this is actually by implication. So in other words, so I'll just explain that with an example. So basically the result is, and this it turns out again was known with another definition called opacity, but in this restricted case. In the case where things are ergodic, and in the case where you assume that initially the probability distribution covers all states, that is the support of the probability distribution is the entire space, then you can show that they are not classifiable if and only if they are stochastically equivalent. So both ways it's true, and kind of the idea is look at this guy, right? So these are two different LMCs. By putting two start states here, I just mean that the initial starting probability is greater than zero. I don't mean that there are two starting states. And if you notice, if I reach the stationary distribution, from the stationary distribution, the observations that I see are the same. They cannot be used to distinguish the two sets, right? So if I assume that I start from there, then stochastic equivalence actually coincides with the limit-share equivalence that we are looking at, right? So that was kind of where we started with. But you can see that this idea that the initial states should all be having a non-zero probability was crucial. Because suppose I take these two systems. These are exactly the same systems. The only difference is that the start state is here and the start state is there, right? What is the stationary distribution of this? Half and half, right? The stationary distribution is the same on both. So therefore you would conclude that it's not classifiable, but actually this is classifiable, right? Why? Because the first step tells you here that in the first step there is no B possible. Here there is no A possible. So indeed this is classifiable. So in other words, this assumption that in the initial step all your states must have some probability mass was crucial, right? So this allows us to say, okay, to extend this result to the general LMC setting, we have to actually look at states which are not reachable with just one observation. And that's kind of the motivation to define stationary distributions over labeled Markov chains. So how we come up with that is kind of, I would say, one of the nice contributions of the paper. And again the definition is very elegant and I would not be surprised if we can find it in some other guys somewhere else, but we searched a lot and we didn't find it. So let me, so I have again a lot more detail, but instead of doing that, let me just say that once we define such a notion of a stationary distribution over LMCs, what we are able to show is that one cannot limitually classify between two processes if there is some belief state which is reachable, that is a product of states, right? So a set of states which can be reached such that from there you see this probabilistic equivalence, and the language, so this is written in semi-formal language, the observations seen till there and the observations seen from there are both the same. So this is the way to extend. So remember that the earlier theorem had only this, it didn't have these two and it wasn't over beliefs. We have to define the notion of beliefs which are sets of states where you can be at and then define this notion of stationary distributions and we are able to show that from that stationary distribution this probabilistic equivalence will hold. That's kind of the way we lift it to the general case, okay? And that brings me to, I think, yeah, so I don't have too much time. So as I promised, there is this link between distinguishability and if you look at Stephen Keifer's distinguishability result, the P-time algorithm there was proved in a LIX 2016 paper and it used itself as a subroutine CSL 2014 paper by Keifer and Chen. So it's quite a complicated nontrivial result to prove that and I believe what we have is something as nice if not nicer. So that kind of brings me to my ending. I will not describe the security context. I'll just go with the conclusion and just say that, okay, this is the kind of stuff we have done and open to questions. If it is limit-sure distinguishable, it's just the map classifier. It's quite easy. I mean, the map classifier is limit-sure if it is distinguishable. If it is not, then, yeah. So, like, obvious done for dealing with the, like, problem of sort of initial things distinguishing might be is that maybe it's the case that you're distinguishable if and only if these distinctions are the same and you have the same language if possible. What? I assume you have a counter-example. Something like that. That doesn't, that's not sufficient. So we have a counter-example in the paper. Maybe I'll explain it to you offline. Yeah. Yeah, that's a good question. So basically what the classifier is, is basically saying that you look at the frequency of the behavior and depending on what the, so if you're given a word, right, all you need to do is to check whether the number of, I mean, if it's more likely to be here or there and then you answer one or zero. So again, we did not go beyond that, but I mean, in practice, if you want to construct it, I don't know what it would be. But I guess this is a well-studied problem. So I mean, the reason we did not look at it, we lost interest actually once we showed that it was the map classifier, which was the best. Before that, we thought we could come up with a different classifier, which is better. But then we showed that this is kind of already a limit-sure classifier. Then we kind of lost interest in showing anything more. But yeah, I don't know. So the classifier takes as input any finite word and tells you one or zero based on that. But the property indeed is defined in terms of the limit, but yeah, but it's a probabilistic thing, right? Yeah, so that the property, yes. Because I want to say that, yeah. So Dave, do you consider how many words you would make without a classifier? No, that's a good question. So that would be a nice direction to take. So the question is, how quickly can I classify it? Then maybe map classifier is not the best classifier. Maybe, yeah, that I haven't thought about. Yes, what is the likelihood radio or how do you estimate? I don't know the answer to that. Thank you.


Yeah, when I hit, I know the point's going. I'm just happy and ready to fight. When you hit that home run, put your guys up, did you think that was some good energy for you guys to maybe get through this? Yeah, for sure. I mean, we start winning the game. We start first, and that is like a motivation for us, for me too, and try to, nothing to help. You know how many great players there have been in this franchise? You and Miguel now are the first team, rookie teammates, to hit 20 home runs in a season. I'm just wondering what you think about that. I know. It's amazing. He's awesome. Me, he right now, he do really good job. I mean, I'm here a little bit to the team. We just try to be focused, have that opportunity, and just let that try to help. What's it been like for you to be able to experience your rookie season alongside Miguel? I mean, it's good. I played a couple of years ago, we made it, and now I play too. We feel super comfortable. I mean, we got a good relationship. And right in the game, we feel super good. We just try to do the job, try to hurt the team, and don't put too many pressure on the half. Just try to help. I think it's the most important for us. A couple of walks today to go along with that home run. Are you starting to feel more comfortable again at the plate? Yeah, I feel comfortable. I'm just trying to take good at every at bad, try to be focused, try to stay in my approach, and do my adjustment every day, and help my team. Have you changed the approach at all from a couple of weeks ago? Not really, no, nothing.


The purpose of today's episode is to understand that there are tons of different options to help you offload that debt if you are interested. By no means do you have to, you can just focus on studying and understanding that the harder you study now, the likely you'll have the career that you want and ideally a better salary. But if you're somebody like me who's been working a majority of their life and always made sense to find a little bit of income while still working hard in school, it is very much possible. Now keep in mind that none of this would have been possible if I didn't know how to study or manage my time. If those first two things were mastered, it wouldn't have mattered what kind of job I wanted. I simply would have been doing too poorly in medical school to succeed at both of them. Thankfully I had the academic success first and then found that extra bit of time to add those income producing tasks or jobs. But if you're at a position where you're currently struggling academically or struggling how to manage your time, I wouldn't go ahead and recommend adding a part-time position because it's just going to add a lot of stress and anxiety and likely your performance is going to j-


RWA Tag Team Championship match underway here folks at historic Fenway Park for wrestling all-stars in England. Yeah, here we go. Drew Kazoo, we got the heavy hitters, Frank Champion, and Shady Shay looking to put in some heavy-duty work right now. And it looks like they're going all over Sammy Mack. Sammy Mack's going back into the corner. Shady Shay's in a bad way. The ref separates him. What's this ref doing? I feel like they just plucked him out of ref school. I mean, he let him go at it. Come on. This isn't dancing with the stars. Let them have some contact. I mean, that's the way it is. Bro, wrestling. They're not superstars. Here we go. It's not sports entertainers. And Colin Obeltaia, the bigger man, Shady Shay is forcing him back. He's got him on the ropes. He's using a little bit of leverage. He's holding them down. He's completely helpless while he can't hold on to them right now. Sammy Mack just got slapped. Oh, you heard flesh on flesh there. And Shady Shay in a little bit of a shady way, just kind of putting the fists of the face. It's all in the name. There's the heavy hitters now. Yeah, living up to their moniker, absolutely. Well, they want to go home with those tag team titles. Oh, wow. Woo, my goodness.  That is what you call a clothesline, folks. Absolutely. No clothes. Sammy Mack. Sammy Mack with a beast of a clothesline. Nothing left on the wire on that one. And Shady Shay now seeking the comfort of Frank Champion now in the corner. Comfort level is right. He's hugging him in the grundle. Yeah, he comes down. Got the wrong one in a little grundle hug. Yeah, that's all right. Frank Champion now. Frank Champion's doing his thing. You know what he's doing? He's being a champion right now. He's letting him exert his energy. There you go. He fights right back, pushing back right into the corner. No one home. And here comes his partner. Here comes Danny Ramirez now with the vicious clothesline. I believe he's called the Dan Ram. What a double clothesline. Taking down the big horse. Oh, Shady Shay's trying to get in the action. Frank Champion's just kind of licking his wounds probably in the corner. I didn't see a tag there, did you? See, that's what I'm talking about. This ref needs to do his job. Well, look, mass disturbance. They know that everything's on the line. All the marbles are on the line here at historic Fenway Park. They're doing what they can to win here, sir. You know who puts marbles on the line anymore? We'll call it what it is. They're calling for prestigious tag team gold. And they want it bad. That's right, the RWA tag team gold to be exact. Right. Here we go, Frank Champion. Just slow and methodical taking his time on Danny. There he goes, picks him up, fists to the face. Nothing pretty about that. Heavy hitters, very old school style. Just smash mouth as much as possible. And he's got Danny down still. Well, the heavy hitters are a smart tag team. They don't only use their size to their advantage. They definitely know their way around the ring. Absolutely. There you go. There's the perfect meshing of tag work right there. Partnership. Here comes Shady Shea. Just kind of sauntering over to him. He knows he's got him in a dominant position. Well, it looks to me right now that the heavy hitters are looking to control the pace of this match and Shady Shea takes a couple of knee strikes. Yep, absolutely. It's been all the heavy hitters thus far. Oh, there we go. Ref finally, come on, Ref. I don't see anything wrong with that. He calls the stuff he's not supposed to and then the stuff he should. He doesn't call. He misses. Ref, he's doing the absolute best he can in this championship match here, folks. I mean, he couldn't keep order with a cell phone. He's just, I don't understand this. But another last tag team championship on the line. Frank Champion now with the boot across the throat of Danny Ramirez here. Yeah, Frank. Oh, look at this. Oh, it... And there we go. There it is. There's the spot. There we go, Shady Shea. No tag was made there, folks. No tag once again. Ref has been tricked. One of the oldest tricks in the book. Very overconfident are the tag team champions right now. Rightfully so. This ref's missing everything. He couldn't see it with a microscope or a telescope. Yeah, now, Ramirez in the corner. And you got Frank Champion coming in on the inside now. Are they going to work together? He's got him in a little bit of a situation here. Okay, here we go. Frank Champion on Danny. Sends him off the ropes, careening. Forearm. Oh, reverses. Frank Champion just took down his own man. That's not the way you do it, folks. That's not the way. Folks, mishaps will happen, especially in a tag team championship match now. As we see... When there's hot blood and competition, anything is off. Send me back now. House on fire with those vicious strikes. He's got Champion in the corner. Here he goes. Full steam ahead. Oh! Vicious close. Can he take Champion down? Here comes the replay. Boom. Frank Champion's just taking it like a champion. Might, might add. Oh, here he goes. He's punch drunk a little. I don't know what he's going for here. Off the top. Oh, battering ram, battering ram. And that might be it. One, two, go. Very close. Two count there. Very close. As we see Danny Ramirez now gathering himself on the outside. Vicious right hand there by Shady Shea. Oh, there we go. He deteriorated into a piercings brawl, folks. Double Irish whip into the ropes. Double Irish whip off the rope. Nope. Stopped him, telegraphed it. Goes Danny over through the bottom. A middle rope. Excuse me. It sounded like he hit his head hard on the barricade there. Fist to face, fist to face. Oh, Frank Champion misses. Big whiff there. Oh, another fist. Keeps hitting him. Oh, into an axe handle. Oh, Frank Champion lifts him up for the big slam. What do we got here, folks? That could be it. One, two, three. That is all she wrote. I'll tell you, heavy hitters kept their belts today because they played the way they were supposed to do it. And that is how you remain a champion in Boston. We'll see you later, folks. Dante Luna, Bell Time Club. You've got to catch us at Fenway. Good night.