Good morning. Good afternoon or good evening depending on where you're tuning in from Welcome to the US Institute of Peace My name is Mona Yucubian I'm a senior advisor with the Middle East and Africa Center at USIP and it's my great pleasure To welcome you to this very important discussion on the World Bank's recent publication the fallout of war Consequences of the conflict in Syria This publication that this we joined we start our discussion today noting That the conflict in Syria is soon to enter its second decade This has been a conflict of enormous consequence It has provoked the greatest humanitarian crisis since the end of World War two It's had an incredible impact on Syria's neighbors in particular on Lebanon Jordan and Iraq For some time the World Bank has endeavored to understand the conflict in Syria in all of its complexity starting in 2017 The World Bank published the toll of war which looked at the conflict and its impact inside Syria It's also looked at the impact on Displacement and with this third publication It's looking at the consequences for Syria's neighbors Those that have been in particular disproportionately affected as I noted in Lebanon in Jordan and Iraq We are very lucky to have today The panel very distinguished panel who will be looking more deeply at both the analysis in the report And also I think a very hopeful note that the report offers which is a way forward It it seeks to propose a medium-term outlook and one that takes a regional approach So before I introduce our panel today, what I'd like to do is just offer a few quick housekeeping notes We very much want your participation in today's event You can tweet about the event using the hashtag Syria fallout and Importantly we ask that you please participate by asking questions using the chat box if you're using the US IP page The chat box is just below the video player Otherwise you can submit your questions through YouTube or Twitter You can find a link to the report that we're discussing in the chat box on the US IP page So let me now begin by introducing very briefly the speakers in the order in which they're going to speak Saroj Kumar job is the regional director for the Mushrek department of the World Bank He brings vast experience having served in several other positions at the bank including Previously a senior director for fragility conflicts and violence and the violence global practice at the bank He joins us today from Beirut Lebanon where he's based Haroon on there is a senior economist at the World Bank He is also the lead author of the report that we're going to be discussing His work at the bank has focused on the economics of conflict and forced displacement international trade policy the economic implications of demographic transitions and challenges faced by natural resource richer conflicts Natasha Hall is a senior fellow with the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies Where her work focuses on aid? Civilian protection and governance and conflict issues with a particular focus on the countries that are covered in in the World Bank report and Finally Rhonda Sleem is senior fellow and director for of conflict resolution and track two dialogues at the Middle East Institute Rhonda is a long-term Practitioner of track two dialogue and peacebuilding processes in the Middle East and Central Asia She has undertaken extensive work on Syria Iraq and Lebanon Let me before we begin. I just want to thank Our colleagues at the World Bank at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and at the Middle East Institute this is really a collaborative effort among all of us and this discussion will kick off a deeper dive that we will all take together in Collaboration and looking more deeply at the issues presented in the report So with that, I'd like to turn it over to you Saroj first. You have the floor. Thank you Thank you very much Mona and I want to begin by thanking US Institute of peace for hosting all of us today for a very important conversation But I also want to thank CSIS and the Middle East Institute for This collaborative effort to take the messages from this report to a wider discussion and see how we can use this to inform various international efforts on going to bring peace and stability in the Middle East When when we did this toll of war report in 2017 which we referred to Mona This was essentially to do an economic and social impact of the conflict inside Syria and And this report had several very important messages One of the key message was that the total economic losses in the country Was at least 20 times more than the physical destruction that was Visible to us Which essentially meant that more than the physical destruction The conflict had much deeper and severe impact on the social and economic fabric of the country Starting from there when we started to engage various stakeholders engaged in the peace process in the humanitarian efforts in the various research groups across the world We found out that there is a need for us to continue Understanding much more what has really happened as a result of the conflict not only inside Syria, but other countries in the region and Starting from there we established a Syria analytical roadmap Which was essentially to bring the knowledge gap that was out there in the context of Syrian conflict and how we can establish a More systematic program of research bringing World Bank groups technical and economic expertise in understanding these issues and the report that we are discussing today is One of those products as part of the Syria analytical roadmap And I do want to thank all our partners who have provided various technical and financial Contribution to us to be able to produce this report My second point is about the region So we live in a region right now where there is a perfect storm Syrian crisis is one of the many crisis that the countries in the region are experiencing There's a much bigger fiscal crisis in our group of countries You have countries experiencing severe financial and banking crisis and then of course on top of this you have the COVID-19 pandemic which has impacted all the countries very badly and this has essentially created a major challenge for institutions like us a Development institution as to how can development contribute to peace stability and resilience in a region like this and Our work continues to be informed by three broad considerations as I just mentioned How do we help people and the institutions in our countries in this region? In order to use development tools in a manner that increase it creates more peace building environment It creates more stability and it gives opportunity to those who have the who have the leadership qualities who have the The the drive to really push forward with innovations whether they are in remote parts of Iraq or Jordan or Lebanon In doing all this we're trying to ensure Certain principles what I describe as three core principles inclusion Transparency and accountability because that is essentially going to drive how We can see in the development impact of our interventions not just the World Bank, but all the partners we work with in this region as you mentioned rightly mentioned Muna that the This report was not just about understanding How they see the end conflict has impacted Lebanon Jordan and Iraq but also to see what the future might look like how this would evolve and And what are the opportunities on a national and an international and the regional level? essentially to really promote More stability more prosperity in the region. I think that is where this report tries to Provide some ideas some initial suggestions that would need of course more discussion in the world of space Now apart from the report. I just want to conclude by saying that We are very actively engaged in Iraq Jordan and Lebanon the three countries which have been studied in the report We continue to provide technical and financial support to these countries Being we provide conceptual financing so that the refugees and the host communities are Have access to good health good education Services as well as livelihood opportunities for the people In these countries and we will continue to do so as the peace process goes forward But once again, I want to thank you again Mona for bringing us all together and to us IP Hosting this very important event back to you Mona. Thanks so much Saroj That was a really helpful framing with that I'd like to turn it over to Haroon and Haroon's gonna walk us through in much more detail The key findings of the report so Haroon over to you Thank you Mona. Thank you colleagues to be here today. Let me quickly share my screen Mora, can you confirm that it's visible? It is a d visible. Thank you. Okay. Okay. Thank you very much as Saroj mentioned this is a Product that has been supported by many partners Including the governments of Canada Netherlands Germany United States and UK as well as our participation with Collaboration with UNHCR As Previously mentioned, this is part of a three report series. The first one is the toll of war 2017 the second one is the mobility of this place serious 2019 and this is the third report in which was released in June 2020 and the first report very briefly looked at the economy can socially impact inside Syria and Took a stock of the outcomes that are associated with conflict and try to understand how we can explain this outcomes The second report we looked at the return patterns of Syrian refugees Obviously, we found that the security conditions inside Syria including broad human rights and property rights derived the returns but the conditions in host countries have very complex influences on return patterns for example the typical Logic that if the refugees face bad conditions in host countries, they'll go back We found no evidence for that. In fact, in certain cases it was the opposite if refugees faced better conditions They were more likely to return because they could afford to return a risky return to on you This report I'm skipping quickly. This report focuses on Three major buckets here. The first one is that we take a stock of the conflict driven outcomes in Jordan, Lebanon and Iraq We look at economic growth labor markets fiscal side environmental side and many other dimensions and The second bucket is we look at the we try to make sense of these outcomes how we channels Conflict affected the economy growth in neighboring countries. We look at trade refugee and total factor for activity And finally we take a step back and we look forward we ask the question What can be done at this point and we classify our policy recommendations in two groups? one is the Unilateral policies that is the policies that can be pursued by individual countries regardless of what happens elsewhere in the region And the second one is what can we do jointly all countries together in the region? And that's what we call a regional approaches So the report is quite extensive more than 200 pages in this presentation I will focus on only the 10 key messages really and Three of these messages will be about how the impact has taken place so far the other three will be about the prior Previous conditions that enabled the city such an impact and the final four slides or messages will be about the way ahead Okay, so let's start with the GDP growth When we compare the last two decades in Iraq Jordan and Lebanon that is between 2010 and after 2010 until 2018 where we had the latest data at the time of preparation What we see is that the on average the GDP in Lebanon Trank by about four point two percent GDP growth Shrank by four point two percent between the two decades and in Jordan. This was about three point nine percentage points Is this all about the Syrian conflict? Not really Because there were global and regional factors that could facilitate such a slowdown for example the global financial crisis in 2018 as well as oil price dynamics or other regional factors For example, non Syria related air spring events could all slow down the economic growth in this country So, how do we know how much of that slowdown comes from the Syrian conflict? So to be able to assess that we really need a counterfactual case, which means that take Lebanon for example We would need a Lebanon elsewhere in the world that looks exactly like the Lebanon that we know But it was not exposed to the Syrian conflict and as we all know we don't have such a case. We don't we don't have a Different Lebanon that wasn't exposed to Syrian conflict But what we did is that we followed a statistical approach called synthetic control method This combines the characteristics of all other countries the relevant countries and create a synthetic A fictitious Lebanon elsewhere and we observe its pattern compare with the actual Lebanon's pattern to assess What would be the contractual and what we see is that the the Syrian conflict indeed slowed down the economic growth in Lebanon by 1.7 percentage points and In Jordan by 1.6 percentage points in Iraq by 1.2 percentage points But that is the part that the Syrian conflict is directly responsible for Okay, how do we explain this slowdown? How did the Syrian conflict translate into a GDP growth slowdown in neighboring countries? We we performed the decomposition exercise We looked at as I mentioned trade the refugee arrivals and total factor productivity what we found was that if everything else was the same but the trade shock did not happen did not take place the Jordanian GDP would grow by about 3.1 percentage points faster and Lebanese GDP would grow by about 2.9 percentage points faster if the trade shock did not happen So by these numbers tell us already that a large portion of the GDP impact Associated with Syrian conflict is trade related about refugees well, we find that refugees actually Increased the GDPs in Lebanon and Jordan by 0.9 percentage points for a very simple reason When you have more people You have more consumers. So there's more consumption. Also, you have more workers. There's more labor market activity So the aggregate economic activity Increases when you have more people controlling for all other factors. However, the GDP effect and and the Aggregate economic activity effect on the aggregate economic activity is only a small portion of the story here When we look at the poverty for example, we see that the poverty did Increase the poverty rates in Lebanon by 7.1 percentage points and in Jordan by 3.9 percentage points and in Iraq by 6% In Lebanon, this is a bit that there's a bias for example the female households Female headed households experienced worse conditions whereas in Jordan and Iraq We observed that the rural households observe a bit worse conditions in this case Further we also observe that there is in the publicly provided goods and services. There is congestion effects A certain amount of publicly delivered services is shared by a greater number of people because of the refugee arrivals and this is particularly Relevant in the health care and transportation sectors. There's also a fiscal implication of this Even if the refugees pay their electricity bills or the international community fully covers the electricity bill This still has fiscal implication for host countries because the electricity electricity fees are subsidized and In Lebanon this amounts to about 130 million dollars per year The subsidies that goes to the refugees even if they fully pay their bills and in Jordan It was estimated to be between 60 and 100 million dollars On the environmental side, we observed that there is definitely higher Municipal solid waste generation because of refugee arrivals We see some water pollution effects, but these are very localized. It's not general. It's not everywhere. It's only in certain and I would like to emphasize that Even with such a comprehensive looking at different sectors We still are unable to cover the entire complexity of the effect There are multiple different issues for example the political effects the security related effects cultural effects These we can we couldn't cover in this study either because we don't have the relevant metric or we don't have the relevant data to analyze this In the labor markets, this is one of the important areas we observe that there is in general a deterioration in Iraq Jordan and Lebanon over the last decade or so and This is particularly problematic for females When you look at Iraq unemployment rate, it increased for 16 percent to 38 percent for females in Iraq And in Jordan it increased from 18 percent to 30 percent But even these numbers do not do justice to the severity of the problem in Iraq for example In conflict affected areas say Kirkuk. There was about 25 percent Female employment before the onset of the conflict and this was pretty much wiped out. It decreased to about five percent only by the end conflict Is that a correlation between refugee presence and worse labor market outcomes in Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq? We do not observe such correlations when we look at the data. We see that this graphs here Shows you the the share of forcibly displaced local population in local population and on the vertical axis You see the labor market performance What we observe in Jordan is that both places where there are more refugees Perform better in terms of labor market activity over the last decade compared to other places where there weren't many refugees In Iraq, there is some positive correlation But the problem there is we cannot separate the refugee effect from the conflict overall the presence of the conflict effect Most refugees are in locations where there are also significant clashes with ISIS So these are difficult to disentangle So what we conclude from this looking at the Jordan data is that yes There is labor market deterioration, but this is about the broader effects of the Syrian conflict rather than refugee So when we look at these effects in Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq We compare this with other global cases other continents other other years And what we find is that the impact on especially Lebanon and Jordan has been quite large compared to other conflict situations and next we ask the question why these countries were affected so badly and We have three possible explanations One is that the Syrian conflict was very brutal and very long. That's correct And the second one is the exposure to the Syrian conflict was high in neighboring countries And then the third one is the institutional resilience was low just to use an analogy Take the peace a tower in Italy. We know that over time it lists further to the side There will be a point where even a slightest breeze might lead to a collapse of the tower So how do we assign the causality in this case? Can we say that just a really very pleasant breeze led to a collapse of the tower or are we going to blame? Only the structural integrity problems. Well, the right answer is probably both. So there is an external shock Yes, we need to attribute that one the proper role But also the structural problems and that's what we do here When we look at the exposure side I mentioned that trade is an important part of the story But when you look at the bilateral trade between Syria and its neighbors Actually the bilateral merchandise trade between Lebanon and Syria and Jordan and Syria were quite low for Lebanese and Jordanian export But what mattered was the the services for example in Lebanon in 2010 the services constituted about 42 percent of the GDP and When you look at the previous decade it those services were growing by eight percent eight percent per year But that growth decreased to a negative mind one percent in the current decade So that explains half of the GDP was growing at eight percent previous decade now It's shrinking by one percent it explains the economic dynamics there Similarly in Jordan the services and merchandise exports were of equal size 22 23 percent But they were growing about 19 percent in the previous decades and seven percent which decreased to three percent growth in the current decade So that explains What's going on in the trade side Also, these economies were heavily reliant on FTI inflows in the previous decade All of these the services which are largely tourism And FTI inflows are very sensitive to regional instability and that's what In terms of the institutional resilience What we see is that uh iraq had one of the lowest state capacities in the world in 2010 for obvious reasons Jordan had one of the best in manna But its fiscal space was narrowing very quickly because of the wrong fiscal policies The revenues were about 33 percent of gdp in 2005 It decreased to about 25 percent in 2010 because of largely the exemptions and other factors In lebanon the problems lebanon had problems like combine Combined problems of iraq and problems of jordan. So they faced both problems its state capacity suffered from years of underinvestment And it had a large debt burden which suffocated fiscal space for example When you look at the interest payments in lebanon in 2005 and 2010 It was about 10 of gdp That is largely about half the entire government's budget And in many years the interest payments the debt The interest payments on outstanding debt was the largest expenditure item in government's budget Exceeding the wage bill of the government. So imagine that situation quite quite troublesome And at that point I remember my discussions with colleagues and lebanon was described as as a country that defies gravity because of this problem Unfortunately the recent events show that that that was an illusion. No country defies gravity in the long term So together with the Size of the exposure and then the resilience problems. We arrive At a situation where we call a low equilibrium Which is combined or aggravated by an agency problem And by agency problem. I mean that this vicious circle here The domestic policy political economy constraints in these countries Prevented a more structural response to the syrian conflict's impact on these countries The governments in this Especially lebanon and to a certain extent in jordan took a rather short-termist approach Providing a quick and dirty fixes for what became to be a structural issue in these countries And that short-termism in return Fed into an international short-termism And by that what I mean is that because the the governments in these countries could not Commit to a structural solution The international community also took a short-termist perspective They also couldn't commit to a more structural assistance framework for these countries The assistance provided has been largely project by project And year by year without a commitment to a medium term framework But because the international community couldn't commit that also reinforced the short-termism in in domestic policies So we have two short-termism that feed into each other and the result is a very ineffective situation Uh, the service provision is ineffective For example, when you think about the the water provision to refugees A large reliance on tracking water, which is three times more expensive than regular approach and then There is a problem of lost economic opportunities refugees on average get 5.4 years less education than lebanese 3.7 years less education than geordanias and If if you were to close this gap the gdp's would increase by 1.1 percent and 0.4 percent in lebanon and jordan And finally a lot many of the problem programs in these countries are underfunded because of the Because the donors divert their money to areas where the bank for the buck is greatest Okay, so that's where we stand the going forward the bad news is that The situation is unlikely to improve because of a change in syria We ran simulations about recovery and reconstruction inside syria And in all three possible scenarios the gdp impact of a possible economic recovery inside syria For lebanon and jordan and iraq is less than 1 percent And one of the reasons for that is because for example take the reconstruction Perspective many of the materials that would be needed for reconstruction inside syria The neighbors are themselves net importers, so they don't produce The good thing is that There are things to be done even in the current political economy scenario Where the effective responses are suffocated by the political economy constraints There are things that can be done and we identified three areas The first enhancing social safety nets Second improving service access for all and third investing in state capacity In all these three areas there are synergies that can be pursued between the national systems and the refugee assistance programs And if these synergies are pursued We believe that the political economy constraints will not bind because these things are the win-win scenarios So it can be there's something in it for everyone in these countries But obviously this approach Only has limited applicability in a way that It won't transform everything under the sound of our might But what we propose in terms of the second group of policy actions is a regional perspective The unilateral perspective can be pursued under current political economy constraints But we believe that taking a more regional perspective both Countries themselves and the international community Can relax some of these political economy constraints And there are Three major areas where we observe there are clear gains from a regional perspective One is energy The second one is transportation and the other one is the ICT technologies There are large gains to try to relax this Country by country approach and short-term approach and take a more medium term regional perspective um But as many of you would know the region has a long history of regional integration efforts And many of them didn't succeed so far and there are reasons the same political economy constraints that affect That prevent effective responses could also prevent such a regional perspective But what we think is that we are in a special situation now looking at the region's long history We think that there are opportunities to be pursued For example, the demographic stocks the refugee presence if these This problem is approached the right way. It could provide Opportunity to improve cross-border economic relationships Similarly the external market if we have better access to external markets be the european union or the regional market This could facilitate a better bottom-up regional integration And while we do that it's important to to Pursue a balance Between cooperation competition across the countries and cooperation And all these three messages come from the long history of the region where we looked at the centuries before what has happened Okay, so let me stop there and just provide the concluding remarks What we see in this report is that the shock that this region experienced is is severe It could destabilize even the advanced countries in the world And we know that the syrian conflict played an important role in this outcome But it's not the only fact that the region had preconditions and the syrian conflict aggravated these And going forward we believe that We need to transform our approach to a more medium term perspective Which incorporates the cross-borders? Extra externalities in this region and we believe that it is very difficult to stabilize only single country in the region The region as a whole we need to take this problem and incorporate the cross-border inter linkages. Thank you Thank you so much haroon. That was a really very rich presentation Before I turn to our two discussants first we'll hear from natasha and then from ronda I want to remind the audience that you are encouraged to submit questions using the chat box on the usip webpage just below the the video player So natasha, let's let's turn to you next for some brief comments on on what you've heard Great. Thank you. Mona for the introduction and thanks to usip for having me and of course a big thanks to haroon And and the world bank team for this really excellent report It's quite a feat of data analysis and I recommend that everyone tries to read it in its entirety More personally as someone who spent the bulk of my career working in and on the country is mentioned in the report I'm really glad that you're shining a light on serious neighbors which have borne the brunt of the crisis and Especially at a time when we're facing an economic downturn due to the pandemic and also donor fatigue I should mention in addition to the the figures that haroon just mentioned The imf now expects gdp in the middle east to decrease by 4.7 percent and remittances by 20 So there's no doubt that these countries, especially jordan and lebanon have taken on quite a herculean task I'm also pleased to see the recommendations for longer term or medium term solutions As well as the need for greater institutional resilience And just briefly on the need for longer term solutions in case anyone needed more convincing I just want to remind everyone that unhcr estimates that refugees today are displaced on average between 17 to 25 years And in the case of syrians in particular as the previous world bank report pointed out also authored by haroon There's little hope for unmasked return due to security conditions And I should mention that these security conditions are not just about shelling and active conflict But they're also regarding arbitrary arrests and a general feeling of being unsafe In fact, there was a recent study by a syrian organization that found that more than 60 percent of refugees who had returned to syria Which I should mention is a very small slice of of the millions of refugees that have fled We're already actively seeking a way to flee again due to these security conditions So with that in mind, I just want to focus My brief remarks on a couple of points One of which was featured prominently in the report which was the need for institutional resilience And the second point which was not mentioned But it's really vital to ensuring any kind of medium term solution works And that's enshrining the basic rights of refugees And then I'll just conclude with a request to the to the donor and loner communities But in terms of institutional resilience haroon mentioned and the report mentions the need for Transparency and accountability, but I really want to highlight this as a priority Because one thing that I can affirmatively say and that the report also says that a lot of these problems Existed prior to the syrian conflict but may have been exacerbated at csis We've actually been assessing governance through several sectors such as water and waste management and the power sector Particularly in lebanon and jordan and in the past over a decade ago I worked on the ground evaluating iraq reconstruction efforts And I can tell you that in iraq. I saw horror stories of hospitals being built with hallways that couldn't fit a gurney And now we know that an estimated 320 billion dollars has been stolen since 2003 And there are real fatal consequences to this kind of corruption and mismanagement In 2018 we saw tens of thousands of people in southern a rock hospitalized Due to what was likely contaminated water And now we see the underfunded health system is overwhelmed by covet On the other hand in lebanon you see wastewater treatment plants that aren't connected to sewage systems and sewage systems not connected to treatment plants Uh, we saw the outcome of these institutional failures most prominently with the garbage crisis in lebanon And the absolutely horrible explosion in beirut a month ago I know it's hard when we're constantly putting out fires literally and figuratively in the region To sort of stop and put more energy into monitoring and evaluation And better understanding the roles of vested interests and political dynamics But this is really vital for doing more with limited resources and there's always going to be limited resources Uh, and also for encouraging investment to decrease dependence on aid and loans in the long term So the second point which has been a politically thorny issue in the region For generations Um, but I was happy to see that the report sort of indirectly quantified the economic benefits Of enshrining the rights of refugees in these countries Uh, the report points out that less than half of syrian school age children are not going to school Uh in the neighboring countries But the human capital gain from closing these educational gaps is quite substantial as rune mentioned 1.1 percent in lebanon and 0.4 percent in jordan But in order to make these gains refugee children don't just need the right to work Uh, which they haven't the right to education. Sorry, which they have in the region But their parents need the right to work and they need the right to work free of exploitation and legal barriers Because if refugees don't have the right to work families, uh, are more likely to send their children to work thinking that they won't be punished And at the same time if families don't feel like they have a future in different sectors, especially skilled sectors They're less likely to see a need for education now Assuming these rights are enshrined by law and the right policies are in place for accountable and sustainable service provision Uh, there needs to be an independent regulator with a strong mandate to enforce laws for each of these points Plans and and laws are are wonderful But without a regulator, they'll just be words on paper and spending is not going to equal performance So i'll just conclude by saying that Additional funds to respond to the economic and social consequences of the fallout are absolutely necessary And they've been a great opportunity to build institutional resilience And in jordan in northern jordan in particular We have sanitary landfills now where previously there had been none and that was in part to respond to the refugee influx But we also need to develop better understandings of local political realities invested interests To better combat the impediments to sustainability and institutional resilience Because i fear when people's basic needs aren't meant even though billions have been spent And their basic rights are not being protected It's going to lead to more protests and more instability and conflict Which as the report very clearly outlines Has has negative ripple effects And it will also affect the possibility for regional integration But i'll leave i'll leave ronda to to speak on that a bit more. Thank you again Terrific natasha. Thanks so much for those very helpful comments ronda. Let's turn to you And hear your thoughts on the on the report Am I on now? Yeah You are on Hello, good morning. Good afternoon everyone who is participating in this panel thank you mana and usip for inviting me today and it's Really in honor to share the virtual podium with saroj haroon natasha and and um humana Let me start by commanding saroj and haroon for yet another comprehensive report addressing the socioeconomic impact of the syrian conflict Building on preview the two previous reports which you have done focused on the impact of the conflict on the syrians themselves and then on their decision and and the mobility calculus of Refugee, I think this trilogy the syrian trilogy that the world bank has has has provided Provides a much needed evidence-based data driven narrative of the impact of the conflict On syria the region and its people and the added value of this report Which something that haroon mentioned in his presentation is to isolate the socioeconomic impact of the conflict in syria on the three host Countries while as haroon said there is a net negative impact of the conflict in syria The report argues and present evidence that other things being equal in the absence of refugees The lebanese and jordanian gt would have grown on average 0.9 percentage points more slowly between 2011 and 2018 and the impact of the refugees on growth in iraq was positive but modest about 0.1 percentage point Busting I mean there has been the smith In the region which has been inflated by By officials in some countries about Blaming the refugees For all the ills that have befallen the country since 2010 And I think this report with the data with the evidence that it provides You know creates an important how to say Framing and and context For that for this impact and in that and in doing so provides needed guidelines for how To proceed forward. So if I may add Another role to the whole bank in your mission statement that of myth buster. So Let me now Move to three points I would like to make about the report quickly the first report is has to do with How much shorter is short short term is which is well identified as being a problem in dealing with with With in dealing more effectively and productively with with the impact of the of the conflict in these countries How this short term short termism in both the host countries and the donor community Is driven by this assumption which has been now in place and you know promoted by The international community countries and international bodies That a solution to the syrian conflict along the lines of u n s c r 2254 is reachable. I mean that's We continuously hear from from Donor countries from official in these donor countries that they are committed to elasting political solutions That's syrian owned and syrian led along the line of the u n security council resolution 2254 Whereas if we look at the conflict dynamics in syria In fact, there is not much hope for a syrian owned syrian led lasting political Political solution to the contrary the conflict in syria is becoming more complex less syrian owned population displacement Continuous while the security and economic condition in syria are now and will rightly remain Major obstacles to the return of refugees absent major geopolitical shifts a best case scenario in syria Is a no war no peace scenario This means that the current cost benefit calculus at the elite level about short termism In the countries that you that you that are mentioned in this report But as well as in the donor community that has an interest in maintaining the capacity of this country to continue to host These these community the cost benefit calculus about short termism is not is not likely to change and in that respect and create another challenge for for for moving tower the more efficient The more economically savvy if we can put it this way regional approach that That that is being argued in this report still I mean so so So the the challenge is is going to be again is how to In the absence of this kind of resolution of the conflict that is sustainable that is That that meets the criteria that set forth by the international community How can you move to this regional approach that you are that you are mentioning? What are the incentives, you know that that that that could be offered, you know to the Regional actor but also to the donor community, which is going to be called upon especially in the days of covid To continue to focus on the short term humanitarian assistance That countries will need not only to deal with the toll from the refugee influx But also to deal with the economic condition and health challenges Which covid have brought to the surface Which brings me to my second point having to do with how the international community can do work differently And it's something and and that deals because as you will identify the problem is not only short termism is not only With the countries themselves or the host communities host countries But also it's with the way the international community the donor community does its work and lebanon in this case Provide us a unique opportunity To really for the international community to test a different approach and given the multiple crisis That it is facing given this international out push The concerted effort that you are all mentioning in the report For uh for for lebanon to engage in serious economic reforms, especially after the uh blast The port blast Is there a different how can the international community Do work differently and present or put in place In improved model of distributing aid that looks for the long term But at the same time bypass the lebanese corruption The the challenge which uh natasha talked about not only in lebanon, but also in other uh countries Usually outside countries would set up a multi donor trust fund in cooperation with the host nation But given the justified lack of public confidence in lebanon's political and business class Donor countries such as the united states gcc and the u should aim to establish an international Reconstruction authority that is more removed from lebanese jurisdiction The donor should frame the authority as a compact in agreement that offers lebanon billions of dollars in assistance In in exchange for measurable and demonstrable performance um in a in an article in foreign affairs My colleague and i dan server argue that this body Would not only oversee international contribution But also take responsibility for the use seeking input from qualified lebanese civil society group Such a plan when it comes to reconstruction funds would play such an authority When would plan contract finance and supervisor reconstruction process of bay root The parts that has been destroyed of its port and setting the city's rebuilding priorities and choosing its Partner its staff should consist primarily of politically independent lebanese specialists known for their integrity and professionalism While its board should include an international majority approved by the donor states Or reconstruction donors would need to operate through these authority rather than through local government agencies As donors have done in the past This is one one opportunity for the international donor community Including the world bank to engage in the kind of long medium term approach That tries to build state capacity through engaging with a civil society organization Engaging with civil society with with experts Uh, uh, that that have that are known for their For uh for their integrity and that have the legitimacy and credibility With the wider public Uh, and the final point I would like to make is about the case that you make for um economic cooperation And I think you make a very strong cage for regional cooperation frameworks And the benefits that can accrue from them for the three countries mentioned in the report, but also for the region writ large As you will say as you will said haroon, there have been many attempts to date Or of regional integration, but also regional cooperation And these attempts have either failed totally or have become stalled due to internal political conflict Um, uh, and and I think well the primary reason for their failure, which needs to be addressed In in in going forward with the recommendation of a regional cooperation framework per Per as as a report says is what my colleague at me iris harrison argues in a book Which he co-edited with polsalim titled from cows to cooperation towered regional order in the middle east I'm quoting here the idea of interconnectedness through common interest has little purchase in the middle east today end of court primarily due to the fact that the governments Which suffer from political capital deficits have the tendency to focus more on short-term domestic interest And and and and bypass or neglect or are not interested in longer-term regional common interests Especially if the latter mean upending a political economy Which is structured to safeguard the interest of few political business elite now the report argues that to adopt a regional focus Will necessitate a concerted international effort in this case You could imagine putting together a mushrik international support group for example And I think it is one way, you know to to to create that interest to change incentive structure But it's also not the only way Publix increasingly publics in these countries have an important role to play in changing elites incentive structure And especially youth I mean an argument can easily be made to the youth and the youth will easily understand How scale economies in energy transport information and communication technology help them and advance their future So going forward, you know communication strategies Making the case to the youth about the benefits of a regional medium term strategy Should be part of this new approach, which the report calls for I will end at this point. Thank you Rhonda, thanks so very much for those creative and thoughtful insights. So what I'd like to do is Offer both saroj and haroon the opportunity to respond to our two discussants I want to throw a question on top of it which In some ways encapsulates Where we are is I want to start with where we are And then I also want to remind the audience we are getting some questions rolling in Please feel free to ask your questions as well using the usip chat box What I'd like to add to what you've heard from Natasha Natasha and ronda saroj and haroon is Can you I think saroj you you you quite rightly noted that that the the region is in a perfect storm And in particular, I think the challenge is from covet as well as financial meltdown in lebanon and broader financial difficulties in new in iraq and jordan Really underscore the significant challenges the region faces, but I think as we're hearing from both our discussants Inside inside challenge lies opportunity And so I'm wondering if both of you could respond to to what Natasha and ronda have said and also address a bit more directly The pandemic and some of the subsequent crises that have taken place I think since the report has been written And and offer your thoughts not only on the challenges, but what are the opportunities that are there? And let's start with saroj and and then go to haroon Thank you very much. And I want to begin by thanking Natasha and ronda for their excellent comments and and also putting forward some very good ideas, which I would like to work with but I think you know the When when when you are in a perfect storm Often the challenge is where to begin because there are just too many issues to deal with And this is the situation in iraq. This is very much the case in lebanon I think jordan isn't in a way. I think it is a much better position So I think our approach here has been essentially not just the world bank, but also working more broadly with the international community in trying to Work let's say in iraq with the new government to work on A reform program a multi-year reform program which is looking at three broad issues good governance building human capital and improving service delivery Because these these three broad issues essentially touch the iraqi youth and the increasing poverty unemployment challenges lack of access to basic services and Of course need for more transparency and accountability in the state institutions The idea is to put forward A common program of reforms Led by the government and strongly supported by the international community In a way that is there is greater degree of accountability With regard to lebanon Clearly, I think this is a country where Very Enterprising people very resourceful diaspora. And I think a lot can be done to really transform this country into a very prosperous country that it used to be many many years ago I think the way We have looked at it in the immediate context is to We soon after the august 4 explosion disaster in the country Uh, we we started what is called rapid damage and needs assessment Now normally we would do this in any country After a conflict after a disaster we do this kind of needs assessment but what is unique to this assessment that At least we made an attempt to reach out to all the civil society organizations private sector To get their input into the whole needs assessment exercise We didn't want this to be just done by the international community the world bank the un and the eu and what we presented this as the Whole of lebanon approach Where all lebanese stakeholders become part of the conversation and they They kind of in a way engage in defining what the immediate and short term needs are this is work in progress But what we made it very clear and this goes Exactly along the lines randa was mentioning is that For any reform recovery and reconstruction to happen in lebanon following the august 4 explosion disaster The the there has to be a process of reform And without reform there will be no recovery and reconstruction And in the rdna report We we we depth we present what we call a 3 r framework reform recovery and reconstruction framework And the first r is for reform means reform comes before recovery and reconstruction And there is a I would say a very strong consensus among the international community that the the The recovery and reconstruction Is an opportunity to advance much needed reforms particularly in the area of governance And governance in a very broad sense more transparency more accountability better public institutions Which are accountable to the citizens and that is what currently we are working with In helping build a 3 r framework which can be operationalized To be supported by a financing mechanism that randa was eluding to So there is some thinking ongoing in terms of what that financing mechanism would look like How we are going to engage civil society In advocacy But also in the delivery of recovery and reconstruction programs unlike many other conflicts and disasters where you primarily Work through the government agency. So we are certainly looking at the capacity that exists here Among the civil society organizations, which are already doing great work on the ground So ideas to support them so that they can continue their work The last thing I would say is which A slight deviation from what randa was saying is Can we can we afford to come to To completely bypass the state and the state institutions The the challenge is that you need a state to facilitate recovery and reconstruction You need a state to initiate and implement much needed reforms You need state To to have a dialogue with all the stakeholders including the civil society organization So I would remain very hopeful that through the ongoing political process and the incoming government Put embark on a serious reform That we can be support we can support and we can help build right institutions Which are needed Essentially to take many of these ideas forward because we do not see an alternative To not having a state I think you need a state you need a very strong state and you need a state Which is response which is responding to the needs of his people And that is what the ongoing political discussions are about and I think The the idea of an international reconstruction authority We are we're not saying international But the the very notion of having a reconstruction authority Which has adequate representation from the civil society from private sector independent experts That is very much is what basically currently being discussed I also want to close by saying this this whole What can the world bank let's say do to promote More dialogue among the countries in the region And it's been it's been something which we have taken it as a priority We had to choose topics on which it is easy to bring countries together We have currently three platforms where we are working very extensively With the countries in the region one is on the issues of female labor force participation It might sound like a Not a very important issue, but for many But when you talk about economic growth, you realize that You know the female labor force participation ranges from 15 percent to 24 percent in our group of countries Now if you if you have more than half of your Uh People in the country are not engaged in economic space. What kind of growth are we talking about? So therefore, I think more needs to be done to really accelerate the female labor force participation in terms of Social norms legislative changes and economic space So there is a platform mass trick gender platform which brings all these countries together We're doing something similar on mass trick digital forum Which brings all these countries together to look at more digital payments cross border digital infrastructure, etc And the third is on water I mean water has been essentially Uh, a very contentious issue in the region But we have initiated what is called the mass trick trans boundary initiative Which looks at countries in the euphrates and the Tigris water river basin to come together And to have a dialogue on this issue So more could be done and I think I like the idea that Randa put on the table To build a political kind of consensus and support for such initiatives through the mass trick International support group. That's something I think we should follow up. It's a great idea. I think from coming from I'll stop here Thanks so much Saroj Haroun, I want to turn to you and give you an opportunity to to respond as well And I think also to touch on this question that Saroj has raised about ultimately in Lebanon. You need it You need a state to work with But I do think this issue of of sequencing and of pushing reforms and that this is a moment This is potentially a catalytic moment for Lebanon To to actually engineer real change So please Haroun off. Let's let's hear some of your Thanks. This is fascinating discussion and comments from our commentators Can we focus on structural issues while constantly firefighting? So this is against the the kind of common conventions. That's that's obvious When you look at for example, the regional integration theory and and applications elsewhere, for example, the european union take that one Um, the sequence is usually first this country's converge and they create the the Structural conditions for such regional framework and then they undertake for example Their business cycles need to be synchronized and there should be other conditions That can facilitate a kind of successful regional framework But the problem in the marshall region is is slightly different the question that we are asking Is that look we we are in a really as Saroj mentioned We are in a really perfect storm situation and we have been for a while And it it rather now looks like the this is the norm for the region rather than an exception So there's always an emergency in in the marshall region and that comes in our work as well When you work in marshall, you're always firefighting and and natasha also mentioned that one The the question that we are trying to answer is that okay. We know that such convergence such A smooth transition is not happening that and in the past we looked at the regional integration frameworks They they didn't work because such conditions were not there But the question we are trying to ask is that can such a framework be the incentive For such conversion. So we take take it upside down. We say that okay We know that the conditions do not lead to convergence But the promise of convergence if there is sufficient international support And if there is sufficient local support for that can that be an incentive To stabilize and promote economic prosperity in the region And in this report, we are taking an optimistic view. We think that there are certain conditions right now that can facilitate that And the the presence of refugees is one and many Transboundary issues as saroj mentioned. We have we have water. We have the migration. We have many transboundary issues Really, it is it is very it is more difficult to stabilize one country in an in an ocean of instability Then try to stabilize the ocean itself. So we have that problem and rather mentioned that Is is the international framework a broad international support for such a regional perspective And the public a bottom-up approach are these things One way or another in in my view these things are the same the same the different part of the same coin Without such a public framework the international And engagement will will will fail it's doomed to fail But we have that public interest right now I believe based on my discussions with civil society organizations my colleagues will work on the field in the region The public has already a mind of regional perspective with with technology with communications becoming easier. I think Um, it is becoming more and more difficult for the people of the region to consider themselves contained within a single country world where the the state in this country is a is a balance between the ruling powers and and points of interest and The the borders are artificially hardened To prevent a regional engagement so that the private interest can be maintained What happens in lebanon? What happens in other countries show that There the public is is no longer accept accepting such a really low equilibrium. I think I think we we gradually Have these conditions The question is whether it can such an international mass be put behind A project that could stabilize the region going forward Obviously it is it is difficult very difficult and anybody who says it's going to happen next week Either doesn't know or is a dreamer But I think the the question is what is the alternative reading? What is the alternative in this region? So what else can be done that? I think we don't have many options for you Thanks haroon so believe it or not We're getting close toward the end of our session What I'd like to do is put out a couple of the questions that have come in from the chat and I'd ask each of our Participants to please be brief in your response One has to do with the withdrawal of the u.s. From the region and what impact that will have as a key stakeholder as a key player the other has to do again with this question of Very slow going reform while people are suffering whether it be in Syria for sure and Lebanon now as well in Iraq too So is there a different way? Is there a parallel track that can that can address some of these Humanitarian needs reconstruction needs in the face of slow recovery I'm gonna throw one more on there and I'd ask each of you to just pick one and respond briefly And that is about a key a key point. I think I want to highlight from the report Which is it really does bust an important myth to use ronda's term with respect to refugees and the role they play And the fact that in with inclusive policies not only have they generated an increase in gdp But they could generate even more and i'm wondering if if uh any of the panels would like to tackle How to move forward on more inclusive policies for refugees so Why don't we go very briefly very briefly in reverse order? I'm going to start with you ronda and then we'll go to natasha haroon and then syros will let you conclude ronda, I think you're muted Am I on now you're on so Very briefly in terms of withdrawal of the u.s. Uh from the region, uh, I think it's already factored in into Many of the calculi of regional leaders and And i'm not going to see The probably i mean, I don't think we have military withdrawal. I mean we have forces throughout the region in northeast syria They are there in iraq Definitely, I think whatever the next administration going to be we're going to have more pressure for these forces to withdraw and so but But it doesn't mean that there is a an economic withdrawal if we can put it this way or or decreased interest or popular support for assistance To refugees to help countries posting refugees increase their state capacity and Resilience, so I think this whole issue of withdrawal of us while at the political level It matters to the to the to the leaders and it matters to the public perceptions, maybe But in terms of operationally what it means to us role in in leading humanitarian effort assistance efforts to refugees in leading Talk and push for reforms through multilateral organizations like the wild bank. I don't think that's going to disappear anytime soon Thank you ronda very very briefly natasha like a minute Yeah, okay, just really briefly the two first points because they're interconnected I actually do think that the us is pivoting away from the middle east and this is because of primarily because of energy security And I think what we have to be careful of is that with our absence comes other people filling the gaps and that could be the likes of Russia and china as we have seen And that has a big impact on the reform aspect, which was the other question How can we do slow moving reform while people are suffering? Well, I would argue that people are suffering without the reform and we've seen We've seen that in syria and we've seen that in lebanon and iraq most certainly Um, so we need to really or as the u.s. We need to be quite strategic Uh and how we sort of try to fill the gaps So that others do not uh in a way that sort of exacerbates this type of suffering Thank you Are you very very very briefly? Yes on the second point. I would like to talk about uh In in the report we do not really Propose to just focus on the structural issues and ignore the firefighting in the short term We we have two layers of recommendations. One is the unilateral. These things can be done Regardless of what happens in the region whether you have a regional framework or you don't have a regional framework whether the neighboring country The terrorists or not. So these are the unilateral policies and we identified as I mentioned three areas One was the social safety nets. This is exactly what the the question is referring to people are suffering So we need to reinforce our social safety nets in this country is drastically And the other one is public provision of services Both to refugees and and the host community members. This needs to be improved drastically and then State capacity to be able to do the first two you need to build on state capacity in this country And these can be done regardless of what happens in the medium term or in the long term There is scope to do it within the current political economy framework and we need to push for that Thank you so much Harun Saroj. I'm going to give you the last word Well, thank you Amun again three points. I want to make first. I think uh Uh We have we have seen uh people on the street and expressing the frustration with the state And and their capacity to provide services being ensuring transparency and accountability in the governance And my reading is that these are going to continue Unless there is a fundamental change in governance and ensuring basic services And what the real role that state is supposed to perform? I think we will continue to see this protest on the street As long as they are on the table and they are not withdrawing. I think the pressure will be maintained I'm not answering the question you asked. I'm answering in a way where I see People from these countries engaging and demanding good governance And they are on the table now and they will stay there. I don't see them withdrawing anytime soon Iraq, Lebanon, we've seen this happening for quite some time now Which I think is a good sign The protest should remain peaceful But I think it's very important that the people have organized themselves and they have started speak The second is on the reforms uh and the pace of reforms and the needs of the people. Yes Most of the reforms which are needed in these countries, they will take time to show results The reforms there's always a lag in terms of when you initiate a change you create a better business environment Private investments come in by the time projects are done jobs are created new Opportunity created it takes time and this is why we always advocate for a multi-year reform program Where you start addressing some of the structural issues But you make sure as Haroon was saying that you have a comprehensive social safety net program More broadly you have a national social protection system in place Plus you also have a system to ensure certain delivery of basic services So I think all this would need to form as part of a national program To be able to take these reforms forward But it has to begin someday The challenge is that we haven't seen actually countries really Coming with a strong political commitment and engaging with the civil society people at large and embarking on a reform program Remember, this is the compact if the countries come forward with a strong reform program A lot of that bilateral Multilateral support which is on the table for these countries. It could become part of that program It's a compact if the countries are willing to change I think there are developing partners multilateral institutions Who are willing to provide technical and financial support to help implement these reforms but the countries must take the The ownership and define that program going forward last point on the question that came on the refugees I agree. I think it is important that the nationals The countries have a more inclusive strategy For supporting what I would call Vulnerable people Refuses by their very nature are very vulnerable And therefore I think as much as you look at the poor and vulnerable in the host communities The displaced population and the refugees also need to be part of this And we are ready to support along with the other donors in helping governments Provide protection and develop opportunities both to The host communities as well as the refugees Thank you and back to you mana. Thank you so much. Let me thank our panel for a fantastic discussion I commend to everyone of the latest report from the world bank the third in the syria trilogy It's a powerful report It documents well the challenges, but it ends on a very hopeful and creative note Thank you all so much for joining us. Everyone stay safe and we hope to see you again soon


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