Did we managed to do it? Did we get the two-pen penny-dy diddy-dy-dy-dy-dy-dy-dy eyactolers? Oh, yeah, that's right!  So let's see what we get. Oh, at least we got 500 bucks because I don't know guys if we're gonna be able to max this up this feels like the third week in a row that we've had a tournament creature and for whatever reason Jurassic World the game is deliberately just trying to run me out of books to Pantakla's being one of them so oh oh we got a new hybrid too a new aquatic hybrid fused geosaur and elasmusaur to create a new aquatic hybrid geolasmusaur I don't know why in the the teaser for this they made it sound like it was Nessie that makes no sense but I guess okay also we have been levelling or I've got a load of boss DNA for Omega we are 2300 already on level 31 so it's eight we're going to do two so let you go level 33 that'll do just a little bit higher I don't know I can't remember did we manage to complete it I don't think we did I think we got very close though I like more daily missions woohoo so is that that count as part of these daily missions that doesn't that mate why not well we're gonna need all the books we can get I kind of want to do the two Pantakla's and also get the the other one as well but let's see if we can you know squeeze just a couple more books out of this game so there you go there's 58 brilliant okay so we're gonna have to spend 50 so it's only eight we got there any more books nope so we're down 42 oh there we go we're up we're up we're up and I could also spend 2000 bucks to buy for John Hammond's what a steal or a good trade one for 300 years I'll take it oh and yeah sure why not I'll trade all of those for all the books remember there is literally no way in the game to get books apart from do missions and stuff so I'm good I think I'm gonna need all the books I can get I feel like after today's video we are gonna be incredibly low on books I don't even think we're gonna be able to do the the hybrid because if we spent all our books on the two Pantakla's oh I don't know man I don't know we got what do we have to do today let's have a look what are the missions fight for funds which is terrible because it's only 30 and the battle is literally super frigging hard and I've used all my creatures on the bloody tournament we've got a VIP exclusive event but you can't win books in it so that's a load of rubbish we do however the ball stage where no books to upper grabs which is again a load of rubbish tell you what we will go in and do well just quickly do the rounds for the mods just to get some DNA but assign some DNA some of the daily missions but I'll have a look let's have a look at the Geo saw hybrid is so we'll just need to do one of these and I mean we're gonna be feeding so we don't need to waste any food on this because we're gonna feed up the two Pantakla's up to level 40 now good news is to Pantakla's is of course a fly and we need flies in this game good Lord do we need flies so let's go and do the aquatic let's see do I have those guys maxed up Geosaurus and I think this is it oh god what was that Alasmus or so I don't even have Alasmus or for starters so we'll probably have to save that for another video but in today's video however we can go into flyers terrasaur's scroll down until we see the hatches there it is to Pantakla's at level 40 3400 health and 794 attack I mean compare it to oh my god look at that compare it to tapijalasaurus not only does tapijalasaurus have more attack and if you even bothered get more coin it's it's a freaking hybrid it's a rare honestly the only reason why anybody in their right mind would max up a two Pantakla's is either they hacked the game or they want to showcase it for you and unfortunately I am the one who just wants to showcase it to you so we want to do the instant hatch it still costs to fitty still cost to frigging fitty to do it so place it down oh there you go at the back there you are so let's have a look at you are you the model from drossel world alive I wouldn't be surprised if you were but here it is inside Jurassic World the game you know the interesting thing is what a business model ludi have made they make one model for one game and they can transfer it to another game making free content for themselves how crazy is that they managed to streamline their own oh we go oh it's actually yes oh there's a deal oh there's a deal oh thank you there's a deal now that's two already however I don't know if I have any more instant hatcheries I'm assuming I don't maybe I only had one which sucks we also have a code 19 which we need to do anyway because we need it's for the daily missions and I think it's for the boss in I think it for the boss DNA you need to do to code 19 which really isn't that much let's go yes we're resuming our regular content of dinosaurs now we're coming back we've we've had an awful little nightmare some way for now for now the channel for a week became little nightmares content and now it's resuming back to its prehistoric days of the scaly creatures not to say that little nightmares won't come back I'm pretty sure it will but I need to theorize for a little bit and it's always nice to have a little break from something even something as good as little nightmares oh god but I got some 3d na there could have but didn't oh another one no I don't want to do another one go away so we've only got 8,000 books left I don't know oh it's too productive we just got this thing and he's already breaking out brilliant oh no no it's one of these it gives a lot of DNA though these ones that's super tough this bit isn't but let's see how we can definitely go maybe 200 oh there we go how much that 45 look at all the free DNA I'm gonna do it I'm gonna do it I'm so proud of myself I'm so proud yes oh my god look at all that DNA come rolling in almost 400 for free it's paid for itself at this point and we got oh finish in dominate league for that brilliant and code 19 yeah okay so let me think about this right we need six more right no we need five more we need five more that is five okay hold on hold on I need to do the calculation okay hold on let me get my calculator up hold on where's calculator hey Google open calculator here we go okay so let's have a look so to buy it's one thousand three hundred and forty four bucks times up by five equals six thousand seven hundred and twenty bucks so minus eight thousand three hundred and seventy six so once we get eight of these it's gonna leave us with one thousand six hundred and fifty six bucks okay sorry and because I've got my and busy liners in it's just this is and saying s's is horrendous so six thousand six hundred yeah I apologize anyway so we go for more so we can do we can we can get them all oh man I had so many books so many like just think if I hadn't figured out the John Hammond weird little trading thing there would be no way that I could showcase this to you guys it's ridiculous okay there we go a square three thousand bucks and the life oh god every time every look one thousand six hundred fifty six every time I play this bloody game just a little life I don't really have too much problems with but this one oh it just breaks and breaks and breaks so here we go so we're gonna feed these all we're gonna get this to level 40 and we're gonna see if we can use it I mean we'll definitely use it in something I really just need to rock it through all of those and ball stage infinite so there we go all level 10s we can do we got three instant puses oh thank god okay that's gonna save us books guys can we get this to level 40 or there's 47 a car 47s okay if it's 47 a pop that that's not too bad at level 10 I'm okay with that I'm okay but when it gets to the I mean the two level the two level 30s we can instantly fuse and the level 40 we can instantly fuse so it's only the level 10s and level 20s that we really need to worry about so that's one okay so here's another oh yes oh thank god there we go beautiful beautiful one thousand two hundred six and two hundred seventy eight attack would you look at that so we got two more of these I've also got to remember we can claim our books back by looking at the info once we've got up to level 40 remember that James I need to get out all my dinosaurs that are in storage and just collect all the books from them and just see how many books we can get almost click seller don't click that no no no no okay so one thousand six hundred fifty six and we're in one thousand two hundred eighty now I've also got another code of freaking 19 so here we go now there's the level 20s so no hold on hold on hold on I think we can we have to do one of these regular so here we go we have to do one these regular so it's 80 bucks oh there it is that's it we did it know what books spent we had like boys at 10,000 books was it 10,000 books it felt like 10,000 books and now now so we can get this to level 30 they are look at it it looks so nice it looks like it's Jurassic World the live counterpart a little bit there but what will it look like a level 40 right okay so we've evolved instant fuse a boom done actually could I've done another one I could have done another one couldn't I I'm an idiot oops I'm gonna save 80 bucks and then finally instant fuse for the final one oh look at that crest it's beautiful too pandáctilis oh man that's massive where oh right okay is when I've used to look at that look how gorgeous that looks oh man that's that's lovely it kind of has like a pterodon head now but with a giant frill on top okay so let me just claim all these oh yes there you go 200 bucks yes please although it's time remains open for debate to the necklace is generally considered to be a piscoville meaning that it eats little um pastrami's no silly beavers it eats fish yes stupid idiot oh look level 98 brilliant and your expansion out of free oh there you go 30 bucks oh thank you I'll take it oh I'm a 30 so a level 98 I could buy a gold rewards pack for five quid and have no chance of bucks no thank you yes I will decline this one-time offer I will also shut this thing up because I can hear it in the background so miss human is this video went live just after the live stream I'm not sure it might have done I think that's what I'm planning to do well I'm excited I'm excited also there's like something new coming tomorrow and Jurassic Outpost have teamed up with Jurassic World and target to promote something I'm assuming it's a to promote something I can't I don't know what it could be clothing it could be toys I mean why would target have something to do Jurassic World right it would just be toys I know in the past the target did like the Spinosaur legacy like exclusive but the thing that's throwing me is Jurassic Outpost I swear to God if people from Jurassic Outpost get their own custom figures there's some major nepotism going on they're like there you go look we've got even more super DNA because we've leveled it up to level four meaning every day we get 12 super so let's have a look let's change can we or we can't get any more however now we have been doing this or that's recharge oh we're gonna instant recovery that's good so if we have a look what do we have left and in a week's time we are getting what we get we are getting more recoveries which I honestly don't really use too much but I guess it's handy it means that if I need to use them I could just instantly charge them and a VIP pass pack don't exactly know what that has in I'm assuming it's like a solid gold pack then after that it is more instant views which are great the more instant hatches which is also great and the Indoraptor skylight which is I guess the most exclusive decoration you can ever get in the game because you have to pay for 12 months of VIP in order to unlock the interesting thing is there is nothing after that you do you have one month and a week to come up with more prizes or else I mean they've got it right they can't just leave us it left us okay well there you go we collected from the net DNA building brilliant and what is most Ronnie want have five discovery dig sites should we do that I think we should do that but we've also got look one two three four five six seven don't I think I just need to get rid of these things so I'm just gonna sell them this is no I don't like I don't want these if I have them in my inventory there's a chance that instead of getting books and well for trading books I will get instead of a John Hammond statue I'll get one of those also I missed out on something I can't remember what it was oh there you go a quarter of the heck a gun brilliant look at all these statues man look at this flex yeah look at it all I've been playing this for so long and I've even missed out on statues as well man because I didn't whatever the last one was I think it was salamander it was it was this guy yeah that one salamander 16 I am I missed out on so that's good really cool to paint one actually Lydia send me a statue like one of those 3d printed I'd love to paint it that would be cool also just got like a random ammonite thing ammonite oasis I think that was for VIP I don't know whether that was through a pack or what I'm really not too sure but anyway we need now to test that where does two pendaclas fit in with the roster I guess well no this is aquatic oh I could do that one that's quite easy hold on where how can I check I guess it'd be fight for funds okay let's have a look where are you obviously it's gonna be nowhere near here these are hybrids and VIPs two pendaclas worry where there you are it's technically counted better than two pucks or a but that's only because this game of favours health and I don't know why frosty is apparently factored by health really you just want to look at a time that's what you want to sort things by and where does it factor in there so let's have a look where it where are we so it was here normally but because oh my god oh it's dropped all the way down below freaking off the commimus oh well I guess it's because it has double the health but it doesn't have more attack oh that's crazy oh wow should we do a fight for funds I am tempted actually because I have the buybacks I have the buyback so sod it I've got like three or is it four like recharges you know I think the best thing look at all these in there look at these good boys look at all these good boy in the raptors man they're brilliant I mean you're gonna get me buck so it's oh my god you kill me oh it goes on it I didn't realize this oh no I made it I made a terrible mistake he's got 20,000 hell oh no oh no okay I'm gonna I might as well that that that was a waste I might as well put frigging to genre sourcing okay so you can kill me into it so we have to go for two block and one reserve please go for two I don't even know how many attacks to have to go to kill him what is this I didn't even notice in a source has two times so 1000 okay so I might as well God there is no way man there is a literally no way he's gonna go for five now which is good because I guess I can go for the least amount of attacks but there is literally no way I can do this okay one two three four five to go for five are you serious oh my god I had to go for five to kill him right so one one thousand two thousand three thousand I could probably went for all I'm done I think I'm done man I don't I don't know if there's anything I can do here I really don't think so he's got six he's got six I'm dead I'm dead yep whoa I didn't notice the attack seven yeah I'm dead so Lydia there you go three freaking level 10 Indoraptors can't even take on the first fight for funds please freaking fix this this is ridiculous the prize is only freaking 30 bucks sorry well you know what max it is 120 bucks which is nothing this should be 500 bucks at least because it is so freaking hard I have no idea why they have made it's the price is so pitiful and the people there's three battles I've got to take on and I just attempted one with three Indoraptors and didn't do it it's it's loon ludicrous it's lunacy is what it is but anyway let's do something better let's do this so how many bells do I have one two three four five that's and five hours earlier please can we not make things five hours that's way too much I want to three one two three one two three oh one two three one two three so I'm looking about here I'm thinking I'll put in one of the really good ones and that'll do I think that'll be good so we could try and attack him but I'm not going to gonna reserve cuz I know he's gonna switch into life pluridon that's right the sea unicorn oh it goes for a hit how dare you I love the sped of animations they look great oh it goes for two now I could attack him and I could maybe kill him but I would end up using all of my turns so I don't want to and they have it he went for all out constantly to kill him and now I only have to go for two one two one two and one two three four so we're all good that is a new word what ball of what you've never heard of it before well bollop it's in the dictionary look at him yeah probably mathed on went for two out of his four so one one two one two and pretty much there we go even if you block two which he didn't take some out and this is way more fun I like this this is nice friggin fight for funds is stupid and ridiculous nobody should ever attempt that even with the recharges it's not worth it 120 bucks I can try to John Hammond statue for 300 why would anybody wait like I guess I think you probably get you get VIP points it won't be much it'll be like 120 if you're a VIP and you get like a little bit of super DNA but what's the point is nobody wants to do that yeah there we go oh we've got three heinousels what are we doing we should use those okay I've got a look through I've got a look through my stuff my we've got loads of creatures that need to be like fuse and stuff and I just haven't been doing it look at him with his giant nose oh okay and look at all that hell but the only problem is he has no attack how pitiful what so don't gloss just comes in and has more attack even though it's half and it's it's help is pretty much of the same part of so one two one two and one two it were pretty much done we've killed it they go and the final one six hundred attack wow and that's a regular creature that's level 31 not like level 70 or a hundred and sixty six oh he doesn't kill me oh bless him oh but I'll kill you oh yeah the one extra you could have tried it it's like he wanted to die I love that animation that pose is beautiful okay so what we thinking who's the weakest the weakest is high nearer who do we not want to take on I think we don't want to take on I guess I'm here here maybe no I guess the best bet is Hennodus so we'll go for something that's not too bad we'll go for hello I'm trying to scroll why not let me scroll I will click anything okay thank you we're not recognizing that I had fingers and I'll do here we're gonna so I'm gonna go for one reserve listen oh this isn't too bad he's gonna he's gonna like ways to go swapping it out anyway oh maybe not oh you know who I am I'm pancake actually this video is going up on pancake day in the UK Shrove Tuesday that's a thing oh no oh however I'm pretty sure I can kill you into it or it's very close I think it's to it so one two it is and there we go we've done so we I mean yeah you have a thousand attack then yeah you might do 4,000 damage but even if you did that I've got your weakness lined up buddy boy so we may as well just go all out and we did it there you go that was quick that's what pancake sounds like by the way no word of a lie here we go another freaking battle so we got our best creature we may as well just like waste and use these guys up I suppose because as long as we use that mose uncle us don't cut dunkler Moses or whatever it's called we're good do not need to worry I guess this isn't the best team I used especially putting him gillicus out first or gillicus Jay will it goes mr. you're strong the old and catfish comes in now has to go for five to kill it whoops but means the next creature is weak to us that's good look at it the sea dragon it looks like it's from a movie the sea dragon like a little Disney one two one and I think we're good who I think had one block which he did there you go boom beaver you said you'd use two pundaclas I did but I didn't realize that the only bottles we've been using in were frigging ridiculous so I apologize we will use it at some point though and I'm pretty sure that's it killed yeah look at him look at him swim yeah such a happy little catfish yeah yes I know we're co 90 but the final battle to win our stupid reward which is no box I would use dunkleosaurus that's the one we've got our own hymenia I didn't realize that okay so I don't really put well I didn't live I put in something weak so we at least don't call a Moses or mose uncle is what is it called I just said it um dunkleosaurus there you go um can easy come in and kill it so one two one reserve wallop and then you have a beautiful attack are you going to swap no we oh wow actually two thousand attacks really good and we need to kill this thing so sonnet let's just go all out go all out man just kill it I'd rather have 700 attack than the 2000 pacing me maybe it was a bit overkill but you know what there you go little love taps instead of a big hit and it only takes one hit to kill it and there you go the the endominus wrecks of the ocean basically will we see a Moses so hybrid in the new Jurassic movie we're probably not I wonder what they do with the Moses or though will it eat the last of the humpbacks oh I don't know oh well so much for classroom the Titans and we'll finish up who are they'll fight oh it's going to sore it ooh is it gonna be the hot oh no I hate this one I hate this one I think the most amount DNA you can get from these in the first go is 20 I'm gonna see if I can get a perfect with this though it's gonna be hard because I need to do I think two more of the the bottom things but let's see here we go one two three four five six seven come on look at that look at that DNA oh so close I was so close damn it yeah and the final ones this as well but you know we turn a 35 DNA it's not bad plus 10 super DNA you know what it could be a lot worse could be a lot worse John whoa look I did the event some more super dinner and we've got loads of this we've almost got enough we've got enough for another interrupter so many mono stegotopsis it's ridiculous uh soco soco another basically we've got one for everything I think maybe except for um Dimetri Karnas I think we've unlocked everything let's have a look mark it super hybrids look at this you've got a boss tag now I think once you get Mortem Rex up to level 40 you can use them as a regular like creature I'm pretty sure that's what you can do I'm looking forward to that it's gonna be awesome I was just gonna take a long time but yeah we're basically locked everything we got we can make so many Diplosuceses so many Dimetri Karnas's Dimetri Karnas might be the one creature I mean what level 40 it's got 2,000 attack and 5,000 health that's definitely one creature that I would go for but apart from that like Indoraptor and Indoraptor Gen 2 yeah Indoraptor Gen 2 has more health but who cares I mean maybe it wouldn't have been one oh no it probably would still be one shot at level 10 but you know it really cares I can get loads of these the reason why I'm not making any of these creatures at the moment is because I know for a fact they've already done it and they're gonna do it again which is they had they've now got two dinosaurs for the super raptor DNA which leads me to believe that they will eventually have a new creature for the other super DNA it's gonna happen it's gonna happen I don't know what it's gonna be it may even be hybrids from Jurassic World alive just like we saw one of stegatops come back just like we saw spinus to sutures come back Indoraptor Gen 2's came back Diplosuces as well I think are they interested in life basically half of these seem to be from Jurassic World alive so I wouldn't be surprised if they bring back some already made models pulled them into Jurassic World the game and give them another super like DNA hybrid but anyway guys that's gonna have to wrap this video I am now broke they send monies and until next time I'll see you later oh bye bye


The objective of U.S. Army research and development is to develop new weapons and equipment to support the individual American soldier. As never before in history, the future of your army depends today on its research and development program. The battle of brains and pencils and blueprints of imagination and innovation is being waged in laboratories and industrial plants across the nation. The Army's research and development program covers many areas. There must be greater mobility on the ground and in the air. The need for increased firepower is being met with weapons that are smaller, lighter and more potent. For command and control, better communications are required. The modern army needs and must have improved logistical support that is more responsive and flexible to match fluid battlefields. With each technological advance, the importance of the individual soldier increases. Thus, the Army research and development program is concerned primarily with this soldier. Research and development is constantly striving to give the American soldier every advantage in any future combat. Not only must this soldier be better trained, but he must be able to exist in the severe environment of nuclear or chemical attack. To show some accomplishments thus far, as well as new concepts being tested, here is a special progress report from the files of the Office of the Chief of Research and Development, Department of the Army. One of the most important changes in the firepower of the modern mobile army since the Korean War has been in the development of missiles. While delivering the punch of heavy artillery, they have the maneuverability of light weapons. One of the earliest members of the Army's family of surface-to-surface missiles is the Honest John, which has been operational for over five years. It can carry a high explosive or nuclear warhead with the punch of hundreds of artillery shells in a single shot. Honest John is a long-range artillery rocket using a solid propellant. Like artillery, it can be used to provide close-fire support in ground combat operations. Transported on its own self-propelled launcher, it has a high degree of off-road mobility. A free-flight rocket, as distinguished from a guided missile, it requires no electronic guidance. It is therefore relatively simple to set up and can be aimed like an artillery piece. This powerful tactical weapon has a range equivalent to medium and heavy artillery. It was only natural that Army research and development should pay particular attention to a weapon with this potential. The closer missile is the smaller improved model. It is a thousand pounds lighter than the older version behind it. The performance of the new Honest John is better than the old. It is more accurate, requires fewer accessories, and no additional men to operate. During research and development test firings, such missiles are painted red for easier tracking. When they join the Army in the field, they take on a coat of olive drab. The new version is simpler and more rugged than the earlier model. The self-propelled launcher also has been considerably lightened to increase its air transportability. An extremely lightweight launcher, now in the hands of troops, can be parachute dropped. This latest Honest John is an example of the continuing task of Army research and development, which is to improve the strategic and tactical capabilities of all weapons. Little John is being developed as a lightweight missile primarily for use by airborne troops. To increase its accuracy, it spins before firing. This free-flight surface-to-surface rocket developed by the Army has a solid propellant to give it the range of medium artillery. Little John has been issued to the 101st Airborne Division for training and development of combat techniques. Here, a research and development test model is prepared for test firing at the White Sands Missile Range, New Mexico. Since Little John is light and weight and simple to operate, it can be brought into action speedily by a crew of eight men. It can be flown in standard Army aircraft or dropped by parachute. While the missile was undergoing tests of its performance at White Sands, the high mobility of the weapons system was being proved at Fort Bragg, North Carolina. Helicopters took the weapon and its crew on various airborne missions. In one airborne test, Little John and its prime mover were lifted together outside the helicopter. The eight men of its crew were passengers inside. In another training exercise, the crew, Little John, and its lightweight launcher were flown and landed inside an H-37 helicopter. Even the Jeep used to pull it was aboard. While operational tests are made under as realistic conditions as possible, Little John is considered to be in the research and development stage until authorization is given to turn it over to troops. La Crosse is a solid propellant, command-guided missile, designed to provide the Army with a light and extremely accurate weapon. The missile can carry any one of a variety of warheads. Its range is equivalent to that of heavy artillery. One of its missions is to knock out heavily fortified targets, such as this bunker. The launcher crew is in direct contact with the forward guidance station, normally located near the front. This forward station locates targets and guides the missiles to those targets. When word is received from the fire direction center that fire is desired against a certain target, the missile is raised to firing position. Then, after the missile is launched, it climbs to a pre-selected altitude and flies toward the target. The forward guidance station then guides it to the target. This is the bunker after the hit. La Crosse equipment was issued to troops in 1959. A new chassis, known as the T-236, has many uses. Due to a unique suspension lockout system, it can be used to mount any one of three weapons, the 8-inch howitzer, the 155-millimeter gun, or the 175-millimeter gun. This is the T-236, self-propelled 8-inch howitzer, weighing 28 tons. It has good cross-country rotability. T-236 can climb an obstacle 40 inches high. And it is able to cross streams with a depth of four feet of water. In my ways, it moves along at a brisk 30 miles an hour. The new artillery weapon has a crew of five men. It can be emplaced, ready to fire, in 10 minutes. Successful firing tests have been conducted with all three weapons mounted on the same model carriage. Due to its novel lockout suspension system, the T-236 chassis, mounting the 8-inch howitzer, has good stability during firing at all angles of elevation and traverse. The same lockout suspension system makes the chassis an ideal platform for an armored wrecker and recovery vehicle known as the T-120. The cab of half-inch armor plate encloses the entire wrecker for all-around protection of crew and equipment. With excellent cross-country mobility, it can tow up to 30 tons. In spite of relatively light weight, the T-120 has great stability as a wrecker. Here again, the hydraulic suspension system permits control of the rigidity of the suspension and outriggers are not required. In the driver's compartment, there is a single valve to control the suspension. The T-120 can lift and swing a total of 10 tons. From the boom tip, it can lift 15 tons and almost double that tonnage from mid-boom. Stability as well as maneuverability are maintained while the vehicle is in motion. A new development and supply of fuel for the highly mechanized modern army is the rolling fluid transporter. By using its own wheels as containers, it cuts down on both weight and the power required for hauling. The design is simple. It consists of an axle and two large tires, each with a capacity of 500 gallons. The rolling units are easily brought alongside any bulk fuel source for filling. Couplings in the inner rim of the tires can be connected rapidly for filling and air venting. The filled containers can be towed away by any military vehicle equipped with a pindle hook. When these tires are used to transport fuel, they can be emptied either by means of an air compressor or a hand pump. For transportation of large volumes of fluid, as many as 10 tires in five rolling units can be hauled in tandem over a level-hard surface by a 2.5-ton truck. Many types of wheeled vehicles and even armored personnel carriers can tow the units over terrain too rough for conventional vehicles. This is rough for conventional gasoline tank trucks. Rolling fluid transporters have also been dropped from the air. Toed by a duck or other amphibious vehicle, the rolling fluid transporters can also put to sea. This will prove useful for ship-to-shore supply or for rapid movement over rivers without bridges. Besides reducing the number of prime movers and drivers needed, the rolling fluid transporters promise to give greater flexibility to the system for supplying fuel to the modern army. There is a new answer to that old military problem out across small rivers and streams. It is an armored vehicle which can carry and launch its own bridge. Since ancient times, military commanders have sought ways to move armies across streams without concentrating their forces in vulnerable positions at fords or bridges. Fast-moving attacks had to be halted while bridges were thrown across relatively narrow streams. Army research and development can now report operational success of an unusual vehicle. It is a bridge and hydraulic launcher mounted on a standard tank chassis. Made of aluminum alloy, the bridge is folded onto the launcher for transport. It can be extended within three minutes to a span of 60 feet. The bridge has two treadways, each large enough to accommodate a jeep. Medium tanks use both treadways. Capacity of the bridge is 50 tons. The vehicle can be operated by only two men who are protected by armor while launching the bridge. Once the armored column has crossed, the launching vehicle itself crosses over. It can then retrieve the bridge within 10 minutes and move on, ready for another crossing, thus providing maximum mobility to its armored unit wherever it may go. A new twin-engine all-purpose caribou is typical of the so-called STOL, short takeoff and landing fixed-wing aircraft. Such planes are being developed by the Army to operate more closely and effectively with troops in the field than ever before. Capable of taking off from much shorter runways and more rugged terrain than most standard aircraft, caribou can carry a payload of three tons. It weighs 13 tons loaded, thus making it the heaviest aircraft in the Army. Procurement of this useful plane was made possible by the Secretary of Defense, who permitted a deviation from the 5,000-pound weight limitation normally imposed on Army aircraft. Caribou can bring supplies into small, unimproved landing strips, landing at 60 miles per hour. In the Army, caribou will be used mainly as a troop transport and cargo carrier within the field Army area. The rear loading ramp, with its wide opening door, permits rapid loading or unloading of troops, supplies, and equipment, such as jeeps. Caribou accommodates 32 fully-equipped combat infantrymen. On the return trip from a battle area, it can hold 14 litters and 10 seats for evacuating wounded. Two men, the pilot and co-pilot, comprise the crew of this improved utility aircraft. Tests to meet Army requirements have proved the worth of caribou's powerful engines, which enable it to take off fully loaded in less than 1,000 feet over a barrier 50 feet high. The first operational caribou's have been delivered to the Army for rugged service testing in the field, with its large carrying capacity and short take-off and landing characteristics. Caribou will make a special contribution to the Army's tactical mobility. Because speed of attack and quick dispersal will be highly important in any future war, the Army constantly seeks ever greater air mobility. The Iroquois, a turbo-powered helicopter, is typical of the modern look of today's Army aviation. Iroquois is now being delivered to operational units of the Army. Designed specifically for Army needs, it is wide enough to take litters for the air evacuation of wounded and rugged enough to live with the Army in the field. In addition to the pilot and co-pilot, the Iroquois is capable of carrying a payload of either 800 pounds or four combat-equipped soldiers. It will run on jet fuel, kerosene, or automobile gasoline. Since its parts can be quickly replaced, Iroquois is particularly easy to maintain in the field. It can make instrument flights by day or night, providing a quick means of moving troops and equipment in and out of areas inaccessible by surface routes. Helicopters, such as the Iroquois, are bringing true air mobility closer to reality. The DOC research aircraft is only one of a number of promising vertical lift concepts now being studied by Army research and development. Ducted fans, mounted on the wingtips, provide the propulsion. By rotating these ducts, a successful conversion from vertical to forward flight is affected. Such tests may lead to design of an efficient aircraft fully capable of operating without runways. Commanders in the field will then be able to visit almost any part of a battlefield at will. At the same time, the ability to convert to forward flight will give such an aircraft greater speed and range than are now possible with other vertical lift systems, such as the helicopter. The DOC has proved its ability to hover in flight. Ducted fans have been found to be more efficient than other lifting propellers. Another advantage of a convertible propulsion system is that such a design can operate with a much heavier payload from longer landing strips if vertical takeoff is not required. Its rotating ducted fans also can be used as brakes for short landings. Tests are continuing as part of the overall search for new ways of achieving true air mobility, essential to the modern Army. Music No matter how many times the modern soldier gets a ride, his most important means of transportation will always be his own two feet. The Army has experimented with a new way to mold the souls of combat boots in one automatic operation, eliminating 38 steps used in making the older-style boots. With special machines, one man can produce more than 100 pairs of such boots in an eight-hour day. The molded construction provides a waterproof seam at the juncture of the leather upper and the sole, which has been found to be completely waterproof. As proved by the equivalent of thousands of miles of wear, the new Army boots retain their original shape and appearance 30% longer than the old combat boots. The degree of water resistance is thoroughly tested. Tests are made to determine how much wear the boots can take under combat conditions. Field repairs have been an important problem with the older boot on the right, with its nails, stitches, soles, and heels. Simpler construction of the new boot will eliminate the need for trained shoemakers in the field. Music One contribution of Army research and development may someday save the lives of firefighters everywhere. It is an aluminized suit which has been severely tested by soldier firefighters from Fort Lewis, Washington. This low-cost aluminized suit consists of a parka with hood and a pair of leg sleeves and mittens. Considered expandable, the suit utilizes the principle that aluminum, combined with insulating craft paper, is a good reflector of heat. Volunteers in a special test of the new suits went through an exercise in which a supposed victim of smoke and flame was rescued. The victim was covered using the suit like a blanket and further shielded by the rescuer himself. Flames from the raging forest fire passed over both, leaving them unharmed. Dressed in one of the suits, the victim then was led back to safety. The aluminized suit is undergoing further tests by the United States Forest Service, with which the Army frequently works during the fighting of forest fires. Music The Army's Q5 is a target missile used to test America's defenses against air attack. Guided from a missile control station, Q5 can simulate a great variety of supersonic missiles. In this high-altitude evaluation of the Nike Hercules, the Q5 target was carried aloft by a B-50 bomber to give it a boost in speed and altitude. Nike Hercules, the Army's highly accurate, solid-propellant air defense missile which is replacing the Nike Ajax, is raised to launching position. At the White Sands missile range in New Mexico, it rests on its launching pad in readiness for this test interception of the Q5. As the B-50 reaches maximum altitude, the target is released. The Q5 first falls clear, then after the booster's fire, its powerful ramjet engine will shoot it ahead at more than twice the speed of sound. Sound Nike Hercules in more than 500 tests and training firings has demonstrated an amazing ability to seek out and destroy various targets from about 1,000 up to more than 150,000 feet in altitude. This intercept, altitude above 60,000 feet, target speed in excess of 1,500 miles per hour. The Hawk is one of the Army's newest air defense weapons. Designed as a mobile air defense unit, it will be used primarily to destroy fast-flying attacks by the Hawk. Hawk, on its own devices, enabled it to home on its target. Hawk seeks out and destroys the QF-80 at an altitude of 500 feet and a range of 6 miles. Sound This direct hit on a jet fighter plane is a dramatic example of the recent advances in Army air defense. Sound Your Army's research and development program is a continuing effort to help ensure the survival of this nation. Army industry teamwork is essential to the accomplishment of the Army research and development mission. To maintain superiority in our military arsenal, new ideas are essential. New weapons must be developed and perfected to meet new requirements. In these days of explosive advances in science and technology, Army research and development plays a major role in maintaining America's military supremacy. Sound


My magistrate caught sitting in Yole as the 9th Honorable Lowell, who bought a former gubantaro candidate of Africa Action Congress Bill for allegedly insulting governor Hamadu Umarufintiri. The politician has been remanded for over 30 days at the Correctional Center after being accused of sharing videos in which he accused the governor of betraying the PDP presidential candidate, former vice president Attiku Abubaka, and others who helped him won Magistrate Amino Abdul Kedir dismissed bail applications by counsel to the defendant while a similar application at the High Court was dismissed. As I resumed hearing, the judge adjourned the case till Thursday to allow the prosecution prepared for presentation of two compacts containing some evidences. Mewal, former Minister of Youth and Sports Solomon Dalong, who addressed newsmen at the court's premises said that he came to the court as an enduring citizen to ensure justice for Lawan, who has been in detention for many days. The formation is a terrible offence. It's an offence against the integrity of a person. And if a Lawan has impugned on the integrity of the governor and he's arrested, of course, as Democrats will allow the law to take its course, but will not also allow a situation where the law is basically undermined to promote interest that is not within the context of democratic tenets. I believe that he is a responsible Nigerian that cannot go anywhere.


Land use and land cover change, LULCC, emissions are highly uncertain due to the complex nature of biological and environmental processes involved. The existing literature uses various definitions of the net LULCC flux, which leads to significant discrepancies in the estimated values. These discrepancies are further exacerbated by the fact that many studies do not take into consideration the legacy fluxes or the loss of sink capacity. Additionally, the application of inconsistent definitions of the net LULCC flux and residual sink has resulted in double counting of fluxes in the past. To reduce this uncertainty, it is important to standardize the terminology used in the literature and ensure consistency in the definitions of the net LULCC flux and residual sink. This article was authored by J. Ponderotz, C. H. Reich, R. A. Houghton, and others.


Thank you very much. It's my pleasure to be in Singapore. Honestly, I've been living here for three years, about seven years ago. It was the greatest time of my life. So coming here again, it's like a real right of pleasure and happiness for me. And every time I walk along the streets, I'm just smiling because I just simply love that city. Well, today I would like to talk about a topic that is pretty interesting. It's about a prediction of very rare events in the airline industry. Usually I do financial analysis, but this time I thought why not to take the mathematical and statistical stuff from finance and apply to something much more interesting. You know, it's good to break the rules and just think outside of the box. So why not to see what we can do with data that we can gather over the internet about the airlines, about airplanes flying around the globe, and can we predict something that is, well, it happens, and I mean air crashes. But, well, we need to approach that in a systematic way. So what I'm going to tell you and I'm going to show you is a really combination of creativity in thinking about the problem and way of looking for proper solutions based on data that we have an access to. And so the outline is just in seven points. I'll just tell you just briefly about our rare events and forecasting methods. Then we go to data samples. So we will look at some aviation database and what we can find interesting in the database. And then we go to something that we will try to implement in mathematical statistical way in order to describe very rare events like air crashes, right? And we will analyze a couple of best possibilities or the mathematical methods that we can find some probabilities of certain events. Then we jump into another dimension of data or playing with our data. So number four, I will show you a method that I invented, let's say this way, over the last seven days. And I will be really working passionately about it, just driven by the curiosity of what's going to happen. We will study a problem that is called, I call it, probability of finding a plane in a different spot on the planet just by providing a GPS coordinates. And then we'll go to something that may cause accidents which are just storms. And in this case we will bound ourselves by database of United States because this is the only public access that I found in a very short period of time. And based on that we will analyze one real example of the air crash which took place in Chicago on December 8th of 2005. And this will treat it as an out of sample prediction. Before that day, so before December 8th of 2005, we will treat all data from our database combined as an in-sample. And then finally I will conclude about a simple formula for calculating the probability of air crash given not only a location but also an area where they even can count the probability of a really bad thing to happen and in time frame. So let's start. A lot of stuff I will go pretty quickly just because it's so emotionally attached to this subject because I'm just simply a geek of aviation, I love flying planes so this is really something that excites me. Well if you think about a rare event just by definition this is something that happens very rarely, how rarely? Well I will show you that when we look at the specific kind of data of air crashes we have about a 40-43 fatal accidents in a span of 24 years. And if you imagine how many planes take off and land every single day which is around the world which I don't know is about 20,000 maybe more I even heard about 100,000, it doesn't matter it's just an enormous number per day so this number 43 accidents over 24 years in specific conditions is very rare. And when you have a data sample which is so small comparing to the huge population of possible events then how you can describe or how you can derive some meaning out of that. So this is the problem of rare events. In finance, this is the area where I specialize, this is a little bit much more better approachable rather than in case of the airlines. Airlines are a very peculiar case. And forecasting is our way of thinking about the proper mathematical and statistical solution in order to derive something from the data that we analyze. So let's jump into database. So I found something that is called aviation accident database of the National Transportation Safety Board in US and it covers, it contains a lot of information about all possible air crashes since 1962. And if you go to the website this is how it looks like. You have a lot of information that you can choose from. So information about accident, from when to when, location, type of aircraft, model, registration, number of engines and so on. Then operation about the airlines. You can screen all these data as you wish. But what really captured my attention was weather conditions. And I found that within that area that I cannot click because it's just a print screen, there are two categories that I really found pretty fascinating and I didn't know about it. There are two kinds of weather conditions in aviation. The first one is called VMC, visual meteorological conditions. That means that pilots have visibility and they can fly, they can see. So even if something will go down with the instruments on board they still can land or can do something on board because they have visual contact. And there is something what is called IMC, which is Instrumental Meteor Conditions and according to the definition from Wikipedia that is an aviation flight category that describes weather conditions that requires pilot or pilots to fly primarily by reference to instruments. There is no visual, there is no visibility or it's very limited and we are influenced or the airplane is influenced by horrible, horrible, bad weather conditions. So that really lighted the spark in my mind because I thought well if I can just extract the data based on this IMC condition then I can analyze how often that sort of accidents happen in the history of aviation and just present it. So what we do, we download all the database that you see in one CSV file and you can see how this is just the five lines but how many categories there are located so there are 31 categories and we can choose from them and screen the data. It's enormous amount of information but this is a good example to tell you about a big data because now it is very popular we are doing a big data so this is an example of big data. Don't be discouraged when you just screen just a panda's diaphragm that we just read the data inside and you find that you cannot find information about all accidents because for example number of engines are just missing, right? It means a lot of models of airplanes, right? So we need to be much more aware of what we filter and what we play with so it takes time, it took me a couple of hours just to realize what I can really use from that huge database. So what about first of all screening for fatalities so where all airlines that aircrafts, air crashes that just simply cost people to die in different ways, it doesn't matter, it's just the number must be larger than zero, at least one. So that was the first step of screening. The second one was I was interested in a specific type of aircraft. I really like jet liners, like big Boeing's, we love Bombardier, we love Airbus 3-8 and so these are like that really ignite, these machines ignite our imagination especially when you took the flight on board, it's something that really is right now for us meaningful. So what I did, I just simply screened for, I just rejected everything that had no jet engine and also I eliminated everything that had a turbo fan or the turbo propellers. So usually, so the full data sample that I was left with is very theory, crashes and I'm displaying, they are in the table. I just selected based on the date, based on the aircraft status which was damaged or substantial. Make Airbus, Airbus industry, Boeing and so on, McDonald Douglas, these are all jet liners. We have a model specific, we have a number of people who died due to accident and the nearest location of the accident. Now, this is what we've got in the database, so let's do something with that, right? And if you look at the data, you can derive a lot of things just by that. So the simplest way or something that is really fun is to translate the last column which are the locations of and display on the world map. And in Python, it's really a tricky job, I found it pretty interesting. I spent about three hours looking for a best and a quick solution to look for the name and plot it on the map and I found that if you play with an HTML file of special Google request of the website, find latitude and longitude.com with a name of the location, then you can very quickly download all the GPS coordinates. There is a Python library, I think, GeoPy or PyGeo that does the same thing but it stacks when you just simply ping a lot of requests. So that simply works much, much better. I'll show you later how it is. So, I think I'll just, let me just run that. So these are the results. This is like the first step in data analysis. You need to feed your imagination with a special resolution of all the events. So, we can see that pretty much in that category of low visibility or the lack of visibility, all the error crashes took place are just more or less randomly distributed around the world. Just please memorize the locations of all crashes in the United States. I'll come back to that. There are much more to the west, to the east rather than to the west. I'll show you later why. So, the interesting point is that when you look at the data, you think about, okay, at some point I can stop analyzing the data and grab another, let's say, future event that we know from database that existed. But we will analyze data to some point in time in order to predict or derive some probabilities of a next event that we know that happened. It's called in-sample data analysis. So, I picked up, just because of other conditions, that point in time, which is again, Boeing 737 in Chicago, you know, is on, that has been destroyed or just, no, not destroyed, just subsequently affected by the snowstorm that we will come back to that later. So, the last point in data sample is event of 23rd of August 2005. Peru doesn't matter. It's just the last point in the data set. Right. So, having that, we move forward. We have our in-sample data just separated. We can check what's the time frame. And the first part is, of course, visualization. The visualization that is meaningful can be number of fatalities in time. And we see that the distribution is pretty interesting. If you calculate the spread, it's more or less equal to half of the average. And again, in red, I just marked for you what points or what data in time we will take as our in-sample and the rest we will leave untouched. Right. So, we separated in-sample and we can check, as I told you, that expected number just based on that analysis, just simplifying that and calculating that the expected number of fatalities is for the future event. So, after almost 2005, it's 62 people plus minus 60. This is... Yeah. Right. And also, you can, of course, calculate if you derive the histogram. You can normalize it in a proper way. The probability of people dying in the amount of 62 or more is 45 percent. Right. So, it's the first step in understanding what the data really tells you. Now, when you go to mathematics or statistics, you find a couple of tools. And they are not easy to reach for because our textbooks are not really telling us the story about what we should take from which page, from which chapter, and to apply in order to derive what we want. So, in case of modeling of probability of very rare events, we need to be very, very specific what we are looking for. So, in general, we are talking about events that can have discrete moments of time or they can appear continuously in time. So, we don't know exactly when that may happen. And this is a case of air crush, air crushes. And this is called continuous exposure probability modeling. So, the basic... The starting point is something what we call them, calculating the mean interval between the events. So, based on our... In sample, we will try to estimate what is the mean time interval between all our air crushes. Right. So, basically, what we do... We cannot derive one number because we already derived it. If you take an in-sample data of time differences between... In days, for example, between when all these events happens, right, it's just a t-bar. But in order to model that, we need to consider normal distribution with mean value of t-bar and sigma just normalized by number of data. Good question. Because the normal distribution has... Basically, you can have negative values, right? Sure. So, if there's an interval... That's why the division by square root of n minus 1, which is number of all events, reduces that. And this is the point. This is the point that we don't go into negative territory. That's... And, again, we know that the more data we collect, so not 43 points... Sorry. In our in-sample, we have 33 events. The more data, the sigma will drop dramatically, right? So, what we do... We have our... We... These are the number of injuries. Okay. So, basically, we derive all these differences between all these days when the air crashes happened and we calculate it. So, when you visualize that, this is what you've got in the in-sample, right? So, the distribution of when... How far in time, in days, that all events were distributed. Yeah. This is how it looks like. And if you normalize it, you can even calculate what's the probability of specific events. So, it's more or less the same probability because we are just limited by number of observations. Now, the more interesting part is that having a formula for modeling, which is a normal distribution just given by that, we can always run just a simulation so we can draw random numbers following that formula, and this is more or less how it looks like. It's just one realization of such a distribution, right? So, now, the point is that the mean value, so the expected value from our analysis is that the expected time interval between all these events is about 270 days. So, every 270 days, we expect air crash in the low visibility conditions, somewhere in the world. We don't know where. We just say... We provide some information in time. This is great. And this reduction in sigma allows us to make only a limit for the estimation of this mean value. We cannot take, in fact, these histograms and calculate the probability of time difference between events. We can't do it. What we can do instead, using the same techniques or just sticking to beta, which is exactly the value, the expected value, 270 days, we can use that under the assumption that we model it with a long... We're using a Poisson process, so something like a call center calls that we expect more events to happen quicker in time, and then it just simply smoothly drops because this is one of the best models that we have. I don't say in nature. It's just something that we know that works in different instances and especially in discrete events. So, we can model something what is called time-to-next air crash. And this is really fascinating because if you apply just a simple modeling, one of the realizations of that is a histogram like that. So, how you read it? You simply know that if you integrate from 0 to 200, so you know that what's the probability of air crash happening 200 days from now or less. So, it's that information. Or if you take the probability at 200 minus probability at 199, you've got exact probability and the prediction. So, probabilities are like prediction, right? With it of even having exactly 200 days from now. So, that's the difference. But this is a powerful and I'll be using that just in a second. So, based on our in-sample data, I just derived that like you can, for example, say that in 170 days from the last event that took place, which was again August 23, 2005, like if we want to calculate the probability that in 107 days the next event will happen so we can do it in two different ways. First, you can simply integrate the histogram and find that we need to wait 170 days or less till next event if the probability is 33. So, we've got 33% of probability that within next to 107 days there will be a crash or alternatively you can calculate the probability that exactly in 107 days the crash somewhere in the world will happen is 0.3%, right? And the funny thing is that also we can use that histogram to say that probability of air crash on the next day is 0.4%, right? So, these are all numbers that we derived based on data analysis. Or, you can simply take exactly to plot how in time that second statement would look like. So, probability that air crash will happen exactly in K days and this K day is just plotted here. So, this is one of the key solutions or the modeling solutions from our modeling that is meaningful and we will use that probabilities later to calculate the big picture. In terms of something like probability per unit of time and we choose day as a unit of time we want to, we can also using just a Poisson distribution we can model the expected number of air crashes per day. And if we do it correctly this is more or less the result. So, we have 99.78% it's just 99.8% that it won't happen and only 0.4% that it will happen on the next day. And that number is very powerful because we can use it as just a global information from our analysis that per day we expect an accident and the probability of accident anywhere in the world is 0.4%. Just like that. We'll keep it in. You can also go into something that is called probability of the occurrence of several events in an interval of time and then you can, for example, calculate that if we look at the end of August 2005 and we know that the next accident happened in December so we have a period of four months so you can, for example, calculate the probability that within three months zero, one or two accidents will happen so we find that about 30% we have chances that within four months next four months the accident will happen. We know that it happened but this is the probability that we're looking from the point of end of August 2005. Right. Now, next part which is very key information about another side of probability. Probability of finding a plane by GPS coordinates in a specific area somewhere in the world. If you go to a website OpenFlights you will find a pretty interesting database. First, you find that OpenFlight provides you with a data file of CCSV with all roads. All roads so you can plot them all together to see what's the connection between all the airports. So we have a code for the airport where the plane starts when it lands and we assume, and this is the best assumption we've gotten probably pilots they fly along all the roads in the same way, I mean defined in the same way so with the shortest way to burn less fuel is of course along the great circle and it's not straight line is just an arch right? So we know that. So now I combine two files in order to to have both information code for the airport where the plane starts and when it lands and the GPS coordinates. So now having that I can plot a map and also I've got equipment so what sort of plane was on the road. I don't have, and this is also important for our analysis, I don't have information how many planes per day flies on that road. It's just, it's not provided in database, I don't know is it such a database exists but this is not a worry, I'll tell you why just in a second. So what I'm interested in if you go to airlinesco.co.uk slash blah blah blah you can screen for our most interesting aircrafts which are Boeing, Airbus, Embraer, Canada and McDonald's, which are just jetliners. So what I do in the next it takes time so I'm screening for that and this is like an example of a random data that we filter so we can check that the equivalent is just the Airbus 300 something something and these are all the categories. So we have a very nice data sample let's plot them. We plot them in Python using something which is called a base map and it's a brilliant library it took me a little while just to figure out what you need to go in order to get what I want but this is the result, right? When you plot all 67,000 roads this is the picture you've got. Now I've got a question for you, what's the probability of finding a plane here here in Europe, right? This map suggests when you over plot all these lines, all these roads it's one, one, one, one, one hundred percent it's not like that, right? We know that because the plane is not everywhere, right? It goes so my idea was just to take this road this flat road flat image of roads and just turn it into something called a heat map. Heat map probability of finding a plane. Now how do we calculate it? So I came up with a pretty interesting solution that I believe can be applicable to our just modeling so if you think about just one road I just picked up something randomly from our database and I just plotted as a line so this is the shortest path between two cities I'm not going to read it in Chinese, it's just a place in China and the road was a plane flying Airbus 330 flying to Melbourne so what you can do with that you can take that image you can convert it into a NumPy array so you have a numerical information about all the pixels and based on that you can create a map that simply contains zeros where there is no plane and one would correspond to where the plane is located in the map so you have just information where it is located and because doing that especially in Python using this library with a cylindrical projection cylindrical projections in base map ensures us in a certain degree of confidence that no matter where we are on the map no matter where we are on the map the distance in pixels in latitude and longitude and latitude is the same and I found just by simply calculation and checking that randomly there is about every pixel on that map which is 1600 per 1200 pixels corresponds to 25 by 25 kilometers so it's pretty interesting so having all these ones and zeros you can see how many pixels our road takes how many what's the percentage of the line that represents our road looks takes so it's about for this particle of light you can find that it's 1450 pixels that you can even translate into that it's 0.07% of all map if you go into kilometers it's 0.7% of the area on the surface of the planet assuming that the planet is spherical that the road so this is how we built our understanding of what we can do else so what's the probability of finding a plane assuming that we have one plane per day flying simply what's the probability in space that the plane is somewhere on that line well simply we can assume the simple model that we having a number of pixels is just one divided by number of pixels so it's a simple probability there is only one pixel 125 by 25 area where the aeroplane is located but what happens when we've got two roads right crossing each other so we know that for example alright so we have two roads one is let's say airbus 380 it covers 13 pixels and the other one is Boeing 777 and they cross each other in one point so probability for finding a Boeing 777 is completely independent on where the airbus is located so this is very important so in each square we have a probability so 1 over 9 and 1 over 13 but in that place the probability of finding either Airbus or Boeing is just we need to calculate differently and and if you figure out this analytical solution and do hard work in Python you can finally come up with a heat map of probabilities and this outcome took about four days to derive it's pretty interesting the darker color is the higher probability almost equal one of finding a plane of course we know that at the airports probability of finding a plane landing or starting is almost one it's not one exactly for all the airports not for the business one yes but not for the whole this result is pretty interesting because having the constant knowledge about the dimensions of the image we can just simply take any GPS coordinates we can find a pixel corresponding to that and we can from the map directly read out the probability of finding a plane by GPS coordinates that's it so simple and so beautiful alright alright next part we are coming to the ground final so probability of the barrier this is a tricky one these data are I just in the period of one week I just found an open database of covering only US so what you can find in NOAA National Weather Service are there in CSV files from 1996 to present all records and all locations of storms of any kind recorded by different people by different stations by different sources in US so when you look at the example of a file that is called in the US storm events locations you just are interested in latitude and longitude so where the storm has to place and of course when and this is the tricky part we have a year and month we have no we have no information about the day so now we need to think that we can derive some probabilities of finding a weather in specific area just because we have coordinates but we this will be prediction month by month not day by day as in case of airlines but it can be solved I believe so we screened the data we look for our case study which is a Chicago December 2008 that we try to predict that the event will happen so we are looking for the total history before that event of all storms all possible in before that so from 1996 till 2005 and of November even we can take month by month all storms that happen in that area and this is beautiful because I didn't know what I can derive but I found that there was there is a record over that period of time 341 storms in that area wow that's that's much better than 33 right so you can tell something more about the probabilities so if you plot per month because we screened so per month this is how it looks like it's a number of storms in time all right now of course we can display all the storms and this is the result every single dot from our database of storm events it's just the one dot and you can see that in the eastern part of US the probability of storm is much much higher than to the west and that's why as I ask you to memorize we had more accidents due to bad weather which is pretty good for us right when we do the modeling and this is more or less how it looks like now in that part how to find how to calculate the probability of of of bad weather bad storms snowstorm rainstorm it doesn't matter what the class is in that area around Chicago right we need to use a Bayesian approach and we can treat every single month or every single day as a series of Bernoulli trails so we simply collect information that on the specific month there was a storm or there was no storm that's it so it's a zero one zero one zero one and we know that from Bayesian analysis that if you start from something like what is called inform prior so we have no information about the distribution of the probability of a storm so we add more points more data points to our sample as we go in time and we build that probability and based on that we can we can use that information that approach using a better distribution and we calculate was the probability of a storm in area just using that I'll just show you just to visualize if you are not familiar with that how it looks like and you know that the idea behind using this beta distribution with this prior and learning stuff in this Bayesian frame is the same as we first we have no idea about whether for example we flip a coin we don't know whether it's fair coin or just we expect more heads or more tails we want just to test it so we start just by flipping and the more times we flip and we record whether it was tail or head we build that image of probability and after for example 500 trials we see that it is more or less the probability is centered around 0.5 so this is expected half time if we have a fair coin we should record the tails and the half time we should record it so this is how it works in practice we look at the data storms and the more data stones we have or don't have we build the probability and that allows us in fact to predict what's the probability of a storm in December 2005 based on monthly data so if you do it correctly and if I dinote correctly the probability of a storm in December 2005 based on our in sample data and a little beyond till November is 40% now how to calculate what's the probability of a storm in December per day we can take 40% divided by 31 days and estimate it's about 0.1.3% or we can use something that we know from finance which is a compounded returne model that we just simply know that if you multiply the percentage and you do it 31 times so you multiply it you've got probability per month 40% so this is how you can approach that and you can find that the probability is 1.1% so both approaches with dividing by number of days or doing that in the compounded returne framework it works in the same way it doesn't matter is it 1.1, 1.3 it's just 1% it's very low it is not 0 so we have figured out what's the probability of a storm what's the probability of a plane in any spot and we derive also the probability of accident which was about 0.4 per day so now let's look at very briefly on the case study and this is pretty interesting because if you like aviation, if you watched on National Geographic a lot of movies and investigations it's pretty interesting to feel like all these guys going around the aircraft and looking for all the causes what would happen and in the record that we can find on the internet about that event it says that on that day 750 South Airlines jetliner of a runway at Midway International Airport while attempting land in a snowstorm that's important a plane came to the rest at an intersection at the northwest corner of the airport one person in a car was killed so nobody was injured in the plane a snowstorm has begun during the early afternoon after and affected all of northwest Illinois and northwest Indiana storm total snow of 3 to 6 inches was widespread and intensive snow was just like one hour before the accident they estimated about 3 inches per hour of a fall and in another report that investigated why plane really crashed they found that the conditions contributed to the formation of the band and insight as to why the snow intensely picked just prior to the airline incident revealed a combination of events which came together simultaneously for a short period over this area and it demonstrates how complex air crash can be in fact where the accident happened Chicago Midway International Airport this is how it looked like so no crash but due to again snowstorm that happened and then in the national transportation safety board they only put we find on the internet that the probable cause of that accident that the pilot's failure to use available reverse thrust in a timely manner to safely slow and stop the airplane after landing which resulted in a runway overrun so it's an error of human error but human error could be correlated with bad weather conditions with low training and so on so you can just by that peculiar case I just want to put your attention on one spot that no matter what the cause of all the accidents where was or where the causes were we when we approach a huge database big data right analysis we need to be aware what's going on behind that's why I was asking you about the results because the process of processing the data is important but also what we derive is even much more important than but all these things are correlated anyway one more point about Python which is the tool that we use and it's pretty cool you can go to something what is called national weather service in the US at waterweather.com and you can download an image for every single day of daily precipitation so just to provide you with definition of the funny word that I just learned it's a water release from clouds in the form of a rain rain, sleet, snow or hail all kinds of so what we can find is just that in an area of Chicago on that day it's like a summary for the last 24 hours there was let's say fall, I'm not saying it was snow or rain fall but it was something recorded about a 10 to 12 maybe 13 millimeters anyway final thought is all these scenarios and now we are ready to calculate the probability of an aircraft given the GPS coordinates in a specific area in cadets cadets so one approach is simply in statistics we know that if we have all these events independent we can just multiply probabilities and we expect something very low so probability of finding an aircraft in a specific area times probability of a storm in that area times probability of just an air crush we all derive that so when you look at the number is 4.3 times 10 to the power minus 3 so it's a very small now what we can do with that number we can multiply it again by probability of an air crush exactly in K days from the last day in sample that we took into account which was 23rd of the last accident in sample which was 23rd of August 2005 intentionally I put the number 107 days to predict in the future just to give you an idea because this is exactly 107 days from last accident when the next in Chicago air crush took place so it was 107 days separation and just multiplying what we calculated again in this section here so taking that probability we do like a model we take the approach that we used before in order to calculate the probability in K days that's why I mentioned there is a possibility of calculating a even happening in interval of time and we use it and this is how it looks like so the zero would represent 24th of August 2005 and 170 days from that more we can read out from the graph was the probability on that day exactly into 107 days of air crush and it is about 0.001 1 let's say now if you want to have any comparison to what that number is because it is so small well let's consider a game of lotto I don't know in Europe it's very popular in Australia it's popular so in the game of lotto you have 49 numbers you just pick up randomly that set and it was the probability that you pick up 6 numbers correctly well it's 1 to almost 1,400,000 it's just so small it's a 7.5 times 10 to minus 6 there's a probability and if you if you just take what you can read from the graph and you divide by that probability of lotto you see that the probability of air crush in Chicago is around the same order of the magnitude but conclusion it's amazing interestingly people more often win in lotto than airplanes crash in Chicago which is good news thank you very much questions yes can you fly it on the side what's the problem where do you fly night night but where do you fly to India well that's amazing that's a good question ok India which place ok I just can't pick up assuming that half is about how to play no problem ok let's ok I know more or less how to do it quickly do you win lotto last crash that's also important I know because of the better weather it was in in Mexico in Monterey 2010 December 5 which is 16 years ago 6 years ago 6 years ago right no maybe one day sorry I just messed up something I'm not sure if it's confirmed by your data but I get most of the crashes occur during the start of hunting yes that information is containing database so then why would we care about the length of the flight because if you take into consideration for example flight of Air France 447 from Rio to Paris that I think crashed on first of June 2009 if I'm correct it was crossing the area around the equator and it is the category is not IMC it's a VMC so visual but they were flying at night and they experienced something what is called a superfluid activity in the cloud so there is like a formation of water at very low temperatures that is liquid and it cost all the pipe tubes that measure the speed of the airplane to freeze and that cost and plus pilots error that cost an accident but so it was on the road it was exactly more or less in the half of the distance between Rio and Paris so it may happen everywhere so that's why but just look at the approach I say much more about not precision just in first step towards building a bigger picture I've been talking two days ago with one guy here in Singapore informing that for example metmetal.com it's a big service that runs all these weather analysis of different levels around the world so if you have an access to all these data plus this what I derived or I will improve it for sure I'm really keen to do it you can you can predict next I mean not predict exactly when and where it happened because it's difficult it is so much complex problem that you just simply don't know what to do but at least you can derive probability that in specific area of a crash and also please note that I'm talking about an in-sample this in-sample the more data we include all these probabilities will change so if I'm lucky one day I would be happy to provide you with a time evolution of this final probability of an air crash for a specific place in the world how we evolve on time because the more air crashes happen that numbers will fluctuate but we'll see you only work with the crashes that happened because of bad weather yes yes, yes, yes that's something that is applicable you think we have a storm over Singapore we have so many storms it rains and in 5 minutes there is a sunshine and we have a lot of place the congestion of airplanes around Singapore in this area 25, 25 or even it's enormous and the road changes so you see how complex really the problem of calculating the probability is but at least with this outline I think I was pretty successful doing that just somehow sure I know where you are going I know where you are going and the error could be from the pilot that is also not certain I think there are many levels of randomness so on a broader view you think that this problem is even so even here the data is very less well what I of course what I missed during my talk you remember the road that I showed you and I told you that I'm calculating number of pixels in the maps like in fact when choosing Python drawing a line with a width of 0.5 it gives you a spread of plus minus 1 pixel so the width of the path in pixels is not 1 but 3 pixels which is a good thing because I think it's a good thing because if you think about a road the plane never travels along the great circle perfectly the computer always corrects the path so it may drift 75 kilometers to the right or to the left along the path so I'm assuming that the probability of finding a plane in that remote area but I'm not assuming that it may just go anywhere it's just this is the area would we take one more question if anyone has any word to the lucky draw you assume that the probability of finding a plane you assume that these are independent probabilities but are they actually independent? they might be different right? well again I just assumed that you have one plane per road per this is difficult to define per day so in fact we know that it is not true but what I can tell about that prediction about finding a plane in an area is the lower limit for probability because if you take some roads with a higher congestion the probability in a different spot or different area will be higher so that's why you need to treat that heat map of probability of finding a plane in any GPS location as a lower bound which is very good this is very good