This is Heal of Focus, so we're validating our platoons on their platoon tasks. So one of our platoon tasks is digging these fighting positions. So this is for Alpha Company, another company in Nimbab. And so these are for the M2A4 Bradley fighting vehicles. We're scheduled to go to NTC further down the road in a few months. And so in order to be able to make it to that point, we have to validate first platoons, then companies, and then we're going to go get our battalion validated. So this is the first step in that process. We have been going through modernization. We have our new Bradleys. And these fighting positions are essential for them to be able to be lethal and be able to perform their tasks. The purpose behind this ditch in particular is for them to get inside with their vehicle and be able to fire safely and exit out on the other side. I am just going to move a little bit of dirt uphill. At the right now, my main objective is to get this ditch to death. I'm trying to get it to eight feet. I'm not really worried about the length as of right now. I mainly focus on death because if I make it too narrow, anybody who tries to use a tank to try to go through this, they will end up either egging stuck or being they can't really maneuver efficiently throughout their fight. I want to say it feels really, really good knowing that these guys can rely on our fighting positions to be able to fight and be able to get out of the harmless way if need be.


So the thing about goals is they're really funny things, right, that we know that they're good, right? I mean, this is the thing, like everything, nothing is, you know, I said the opposite of a great virtue is also a great virtue. So, you know, grit is a great virtue, but so is quit. Goals are great, but they're also bad. And understanding what can cause them to be bad can help you to make them better, I think. So goals are really good motivators, right? Cause they give you a finish line, a very clearly defined finish line that you're heading toward. And we know that that's gonna cause people to achieve those finish lines more often. And actually it can help, I mean, it's a really good motivator. The problem is that goals set a very clear finish line and they can cause you to continue to head toward the finish line. So what's good about goals is also what's bad about goals. Because if the finish line is still the right place for you to be running toward, having that goal is amazing because it will get you to keep running toward it, but if that finish line is no longer the right place for you to continue to be running toward, it's gonna get you to keep running toward it. And I think that one of the most amazing examples of this comes from this woman, Shyvonne O'Keeffe, who was running the 2019 London Marathon. And on mile four, she started having this really bad pain in her foot. And then on mile eight, her fibula bone snapped, spoke her leg. So obviously like the medical tent was like, stop running, please, please stop. You shouldn't run anymore. But she didn't pay attention. She ignored them and she finished the race. 26.2 miles, she broke her leg on mile eight. So I think there's a couple of things here, right? One is like, let's just step back and be logical about this. She's a marathon runner, she loves it. She's obviously jeopardizing the chances that she might ever run a marathon again in order to just complete that one, right? And who knows when she's gonna get back and she could end up with like a compound fracture or maybe need surgery or whatever, like really not be able to run again because she's continuing. So I think hopefully we can all agree on that. But the second thing that's really interesting is like, tell me if you share this intuition, cause like I've written about this and I wrote a book about quit and I'm still like, what a bad ass, right? I'm still like, oh, I wish I were that gritty. Man, that's amazing that she kept running except it's not, but I can't help but think it is because that's the way that we view that kind of thing, right? Like we view it as this amazing feet of mental and physical toughness, but it's kind of, it's dumb to keep running.   Well, there's people who've built their career on grit. I'm not sure if you're familiar with David Goggins, who is another guy with a story of just grit and determination. And his whole thing is never quit. And he has run ultramarathons and have put himself in the medical tent and has busted multiple bones in his feet. And I remember when I first heard his story, how enamored and just awestruck I was of that guy and thinking if I could just get a spoonful of that, how much better I would be. And then of course chasing that and looking to acquire that and wanting to acquire more than that teaspoon. But yet at some point, you have to look out for future you and what you want to be accomplishing. And certainly if you love something like that, such as running so much, you're going to want to take precautions. So you're able to do that for the rest of your life.


Y'know, AdSense rates are way higher in December than they are January. Really timed this poorly, huh? Classic Alec. I have been frustrated recently with a lot of things in my life, but one of the few that I actually have control over is this YouTube channel. I rented about it at length in my video on turning 30, so I will spare you the repetition, but I'm annoyed and bored and need to change things up a bit. No, there is a usual way people like me do that, making rarer, longer videos less focused on a single subject and more on a broader topic or concept. And in the last two years, I did some of that. So now I'm going to do exactly the opposite. Barring tragedy or serious illness or whatever, I will be releasing a new video every single day in January of 2022, aka 2020 Part 3. At this moment, I don't know what 90% of them are going to be about, and that is neither a joke nor a hyperbole. I know just three of the 30 subjects I will be reviewing next month. On January 1st, Nicholas Whining referenced Neon Demon, the second New York's Ladybird restaurant in the East Village, and the third, Nora Finchite's Systemcrasher, each a request from a longtime supporter on Patreon. The 27 that follow will be decided by you, collectively. It should be interesting, assuming people are actually interested in playing, and they sure might not be, but that is the game. I will have between 48 and 64 hours to experience and review each subject. That video's comment section will then serve as the decider for the subject three days later, this one not included. January 1st's collective choice will be reviewed on the 4th, seconds on the 5th, etc. There will be a minimum of 12 hours between posting and selection, but if I'm timely and get videos up during the day as I hope to, you will have until I wake up the next morning, typically between 6 and 8.30 am EST, to suggest subjects or like suggestions that others have made. At that point, I will choose the highest rated option that isn't otherwise disqualified. I'm assuming most of these will be about movies. That's great. I love talking about movies. But I'm not going to do more than three of those in a row, or 22 in total. I want other ideas, and I'm going to be way more open than I have been in the past. If it can be experienced in under three-ish hours and cost less than like $15, I'm in. Ever wanted to hear me talk about a specific album, or the concept of avocado toast, or even some YouTuber's exhaustively researched video essay that puts anything I've ever done to shame? Now's your chance. Each person gets one suggestion per video, and while accessibility is a factor, it shouldn't discourage you from suggesting interesting stuff. Just because I don't have a record player doesn't mean you can't suggest the latest vinyl pressing from your favorite indie band. If it is something that I cannot feasibly complete in the timeframe, I'll let you know. And I mean, if you're looking for a start point, here's a list of streaming services I subscribe to. Spotify, YouTube Premium, Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, Criterion Channel, MUBI, Dutter, Apple TV+, Discovery+, and HBO Max. Did something short drop on Xbox Game Pass? I got that too. If it's available at a Manhattan AMC, A-list has me covered. I don't know. Surprise me. But don't surprise me with works by credibly-accused predators or whatever. No plan-ski, Allen, Kimkey Duck, etc. If you don't understand why, you should watch more of my videos. Also, I reserve the right to refuse an otherwise feasible Victor up to three times over the month. Inevitably, these videos will be shorter and less polished, but hopefully in an interesting way, with no time for careful consideration or second-guessing, it will be a month of hot takes, at least a couple of which I'm sure will age terribly. But that's the game. I'm giving myself a 1,000-word upper limit, which for context is how long this video is. Maybe I'll break it if I really gotta talk about something, but hopefully not. For my sanity's sake. One last note. It may have occurred to you that there are 31 days in January, but I said I'm doing 30 reviews. That's because January 7th is Shameless Self Promotion Day, where I will be posting a new edit of the music video I did for my song about turning 30 since it hit streaming services that day, and there's no public dislike count anymore, so who's gonna stop me? I'm not gonna do another review that day, but in the spirit of the experiment, I will start the re-edit from scratch and give myself the same window to get it done. Suggestions on that video will also be ignored. Everything will go back to normal on the 8th. I don't know how this will go. For any of us, I expect to alternately enjoy and abhor it. Hopefully y'all hang closer to the former. If nothing else, I will better understand my place on this platform. There is a very real chance I will come out the other side with fewer subscribers than I have now once the historically low-stakes subscription overwhelms the feeds of people who have long since stopped caring about what I have to say. And to that point, maybe people just aren't as interested in this idea as I am. It seems equally possible that I will have higher engagement than ever before and more suggestions than I know to do with, or no one cares and I will run out of subjects before the halfway mark. Things are rarely so extreme, but then again, it might not matter because I could end up getting COVID or some other less popular illness and be rendered physically or mentally unfit to continue. The uncertainty makes it interesting. See you in January.


Everybody forced here ripping 21 22 of city and basketball hobby six box number seven PYT style break your picker team Aaron W. Pistons Alex M. Jazz Benjamin M Raptors bogey B T Wolves Carson C. Nix Cheryl F. Heat Bucks Corey B Celtics Danny C Warriors David S. Hawks Dixon Y Thunder Derward Lakers Frank L. Cavs Rockets John M. Kings Jordan N Blazers Ken W. Grizzlies Kirk L. Hornets Michael C. Bulls Michael V. Sons Raquel Pelicans Ray G. Sixers Sean T. Wizards Sean H. Magic Stephen R. Nets Mavericks Pacers Tony K. Clippers Yang C. Nuggets and U. S. With the spurs Um, I mean you can check out the checklist Sixers have Some rookie Jersey autos. They have Jaden Springer. They should have Charles Bassie You check out the checklist there if you're looking for who's on the Sixers I'm sure they have some some shorter printed stuff numbered in bead would be nice things like that Yeah maxies as well Any other any other decent names All right, base card Celtics Marcus Smart Hawks John Collins and Bucks Chris Middleton Nix first hit of the break lightning strike auto Kenny Skywalker Nix 21. I'm 99 spurs beautiful patch on the rookie patch auto joshua primo Green etch that's sick man 10 to 25 great patch Hornets purple scary terry Color match 56 of 99 hornets And that's green rookie. They're on sharp Three I think of 20 Three of 75 3 25 Gotta get the right layer Three of 25 so tough to see Well, they put the numbering right on that like photo I'm not gonna put your cards right next to my eyeballs so I can see the number Texas rangers man prior to the manager uh prior to president What a mess Shelled out big contracts in the off season got T wolves d'Angelo Russell Got T wolves anthony edwards And rockets rookie jaylin green Rockets rookie auto Armani Brooks rookie eruption auto That's number 37 to 50 Celtics owl horford purple galaxy auto Number 64 of 75 on the horford Nice hit there Lakers green LeBron James Patrick etch green two of 25 and the LeBron very nice Numbered up LeBron James And heat purple jimmy butler 14 of 99 heat Who wants the sixers y'all Who wants them nothing live but a couple redemptions all-star that's the Sound effects aren't working currently got Celtics base Jason Tatum Grizzlies rookie Zaire Williams And bulls de mar de rosin Nets auto bruce brown purple galaxy auto bruce brown 74 75 Thunder rookie jersey auto Josh Giddy There we go man very nice hit 54 of 99 okc Love the designs man sweet thunder rookie jersey auto josh giddy. We'll get that magged Green for the wizards Kyle kuzma Hey, thanks rob 11 to 25 on the kuzma Good luck, man And another LeBron purple color match this time lakers 16 of 99 all right base cards pelicans rookie tray murphy the third Rockets dinner shooter and mavericks dirk nevitsky You might be right Sean. Where are they at though? Bucks aurora auto bob dandridge Green bucks color match there 23 to 25 Houston rookie auto orange juzma and garuba 21 to 50 Hornets rookie jersey auto kai jones Kai jones number 74 of 99 magnitude insert heat jimmy butler that is 87 to 99 heat jimmy butler And rookie short print die cut jaylon suggs magic volcanics Sick volcanics magic Again deemed a super short print. We'll get that one magged for you magic There we go jaylon suggs, baby Come on magic time to make that playoff push this year. It'll be the play in game champs of uh the 22 23 season Base guards lakers rossel westbrook wizards chris absporsingas and selvix jason tatum 76ers rookie patch auto charles bassie three color on the bassie This one is 12 of 15 Philly on that one aurora kings brad miller auto 22 of 149 sweet hit kings grizzlies orange jaren jackson jr triple j 13 of 50 jersey number 13 of 50 And tunnel vision die not die cut but tunnel vision.  This one is 24 of 99 Okay, I think he's actually gonna get traded to the nicks They were saying last night talks picked up again. So I mean, who knows Who knows Base cards hawks uh bogdan bogdanovich Thunder rookie erin wiggins and 76ers james harden jazz rookie jersey auto jared butler Jared butler 57 of 99 matrix material seltex jersey auto marcus smart Sweet smart 14 of 99 offensive player of the year Blazers rookie orange greg brown the third 18 out of 50 Sick color match here on the green pitch black tea wolves anthony edwards Heck yeah 11 to 25 Sick edwards. All right. Give me one sec. I'll do a recap first Six are still available in eight last team not teams team. All right.  Thanks again everybody and morb city and coming up next


We've talked a lot this year about praise versus academic feedback. So you said feedback. Do we sometimes give ourselves praise? I had a girl, good job, I got this. But Lillian took it a step further and she said feedback. What is feedback? What is that? What does that mean, Truman? You're giving somebody... Academic feedback versus praise is something that we work on. Start understanding the differences between early in the year. Praise is good, we need that as human beings. We need to hear that we've done a good job or hey, kinda miss the mark. To really grow as learners, we need to know specifically what we did well so we can continue to do that and build on it. And we need to know specifically what we need to work on so that we can address that. So we find meaningful bits of feedback that are not overwhelming, not too many at one time. And I model that throughout lessons every day. Instead of saying you did that wrong, you say next time make sure that you restate the question and your answer. That would be specific academic feedback, right? And then a good job, that's a praise, correct? Mallory, what did you wanna say? If you're giving good feedback, you can say I like this, that would be praise. But then you could add on and say, I like how you added that fact and your detail about the main idea. Oh, good example. I often times in lessons ask them, what in the lesson helped you today be a better learner? What helped you understand? What was a roadblock? I need your feedback. So I allow them to give me feedback on the lesson so that when I'm planning lessons, I can take that into consideration. So having that two way street of I'm willing to take it, they are more willing to take it. And then modeling what praise versus academic feedback looks like and sounds like. Questioning is a key part of our educational rubric, our team rubric. We meet once a week and we focus on an indicator of the rubric and we plan a lesson as a team that is taught, reflected upon and then refined. And then we are able to reteach it again if we see fit or we have it banked for next year. So questioning was an indicator that we worked on quite a bit last year. When you think about the connection between questioning, thinking, problem solving, there are so many benefits to planning questions that explicitly drive children towards mastery of your objective or a better understanding in that lesson of your objective. So it is a purposeful planning to make sure that those questions are connected. Okay, friends and neighbors, are we ready to come back together as a class and share? Okay, so here's what we're gonna do. I'd like everyone to come to the carpet with your team and be super focused with our team. Bring your paper, bring your brain. I have question stems and academic feedback stems and accountable talk and we have all kinds of supports in place so that the children know how to ask meaningful questions to one another also. So how about the effort equal success group? Will you come up as a team, speaker ready? Come on up and support one another. Now as a class, we have our speaking and listening standards, right Andrew? And so as part of those, we make eye contact with our speaker. We show them that we appreciate them as people and the work that they did to be up here, right? So we're gonna listen quietly and attentively and you guys are gonna speak clearly so that they can hear your fabulous work. Okay, you ready? Instead of saying this is good enough, you can say, I'm gonna keep trying. All of these reasons will help you believe in this. What do we think about this guys? Excellent. Okay, so what academic feedback could we give them about their answer? So we gave them some praise when we clapped and that felt good, didn't it? Praise is good, that's okay. But what academic feedback could we give them? Olivia? Maybe a little less in reasons how but a little more reasons why. Okay, do you guys feel that's fair? Yeah. Okay, all right. That's how I can have a better mindset and not say it's this good. What do you think guys? What feedback do you have for the never give up? Doesn't always have to be constructive. You can say it's something that they did well, right? So they know to do that next time. Cooper? So we do at times as fourth graders a little hyper focused on what can be improved. And so we have to be mindful of giving that feedback on what you did do well. And so in the lesson you did see that our redirected our focus to come up with things that the students did well because they did a lot that was really good and they should be proud of that. But they need to know specifically what was beneficial in that learning objective that they mastered. I love that, okay, nice catch. That's great, okay, round of applause. Okay guys, proud of you. So it's building the rigor of the questions so that I can get them where I want them to be which is very high expectations because our children academically are capable of so much.


How big is this win coming off of Monday's performance? I know you guys wanted to get this one. It's huge win. You know, it gives us a momentum going forward and it's a little home stretch and we're going forward with a lot of energy. Charlotte made it close in the fourth quarter. What was the key to holding them off? You know, just playing with the same intensity. The crowd was into it. The bench was into it. We're all into it. What's the process been like again, trying to gel and build consistency as a team despite the injury? It's been a slow process. You know, having Karris and Kyrie out was a little tough. But at the end of the day, it's the next man up and we showed that tonight. What step in the right direction do you feel like you guys made tonight? Consistent energy. That's the one thing. We came out in the third quarter playing hard and we took it to the fourth. And how about the throw? 22 points, 17 rebounds for you. What was the key to your effectiveness? My teammates, they kept looking for me. They kept giving me the ball and I just kept dunking it. Keep going. Thanks so much. Appreciate it.


Welcome back to Tennis Talk, my name is Cam Williams and we have a WTA 500 event this week in the Czech Republic This Strava open and it's got some big names playing in this one So it's the first sort of big event after the US Open for the women and we've got some big names As I said, let's go have a look at the withdrawal list because there's some big names that are actually pulled out of this event Too having a look at the withdrawal list. We have Kredjikova. She's pulled out Mertens has also pulled out Martich, Pliskeva and Svetolina have all pulled out of this one There's some top ten players not playing this event. Alright, let's start at the top of the draw And we've got eight seeds in this one and the top four seeds get a buy in the first round Egas Fiontek, she is the number one seed and gets a buy in the first round in this one She awaits the winner of Zhang versus Putin's Seva who are going at it in the first round Then we've got a couple of qualifiers going at it in the first round Winner of that match will take on either Kudomitoba or the number seven seed Rebakina in the second round Then we've got the semi-finals of the US Open, Maria Sakari, number four seed gets a buy in the first round She'll take on the winner of either a qualifier or Osta Penko and Osta Penko has had a really good week this week on the Hardcore so it could be a very tough match for Sakari in that second round if she does play Osta Penko Then we've got a couple of Czech Wild Cards against each other Martin Kovar versus Sinia Kovar Winner of that match takes on either a qualifier for the French Open finalist and number five seed Pavle Cenkava So the players I'm watching out for in this one is Fiontek of course We've got to watch out for her and Sakari both the big seeds and interested to see how Sakari does after a Disappointing end to our US Open campaign a couple of weeks ago But also interested to see how Osta Penko does because she's had a good week this week on the hardcourts and playing herself into some forms So interested to see how she can back that up and potentially place Sakari in that second round Which will be a very very fun match to watch going to the bottom half of the draw now We've got the number eight seed Mukava She takes on a qualifier in the first round winner of that match takes on either Castella or Contivate in the second round then we have another qualifier versus Tormo winner of that match takes on the Number three seed Belinda Benchich who gets a buy in the first round Then we got the number six seed Kerber versus Taikman in the first round winner of that match takes on either risk or a Qualifier in the first round then we got the wild card Garcia versus Vadosa winner of that match takes on the number two seed Petra Kovitova who gets a buy in the first round So again probably going to be watching out for the big two seeds here with Benchich and Kovitova both hovering around the top Ten and looking to get it into the top ten and really battling it out for the WTA finals as well Which is happening at the end of the year but also keen to watch Kerber as well Kerber's come good over the last couple of months Of course made the semi-files of Wimbledon and did pretty well at the US Open as well So she is starting to come good again at the end of the season So interested to see how she does but Taikman is a very tough first-round opponent for her So we'll see if she can get through our first couple of rounds. Maybe Kerber can go far in this tournament So there it is the Astrova open into WTA 500 event a big tournament for the women and we've got some big names playing of Of course some top ten players some Grand Slam champions or former Grand Slam champions. It's gonna be an interesting match Let me know down in the comments below Who do you think's gonna win this one because we all know WTA is wide open But there are some names that maybe you can pick out of the hat because they've been in from form over the last couple of weeks Especially like Sakari, let's see how she can back up that semi-final the US Open a couple weeks ago So looking at the draw and seeing who has the best draw and we don't know no such thing as a best draw in the WTA Anything can happen, but only over Kovitova the number two seed to win this one I feel she's got a little bit more of a manageable draw and she is playing in front of her home crowd So maybe that'll make a difference. So I'll pick Kovitova in this one, but again, anything could happen We all know that again. Let me know down in the comments below. Who do you think's gonna win this one? So the Astrova open big tournament on the WTA just before Indian Wells. It's a big names of playing


Hello welcome back to my YouTube channel. This is Daniel here for this video I'm going to be preparing full mudamis using the instant pot. So full mudamis is a Fava bean crushed fava bean dish basically and it's a very very popular breakfast food across the Middle East, but particularly associated with Egypt where it's the national dish Now the trick to preparing full whether you're using an instant pot or doing it on the stove is to make sure you give it enough time I think a lot of people assume that it's going to be the same thing as chickpeas and they end up cooking for the same amount of time But the fava the fool just isn't done And it's it's definitely not something you want to have under cooked because it can give you all sorts of stomach pains So what I've done I'm going to do a two-hour cook and the fava beans in the instant pot and I've started by Soaking the fool for six hours here in one of the gastronomes now You don't actually need to you could do a no-soak method But to give the fava beans every chance of cooking nicely through and becoming really nice and soft I've given them a six hour soak and I'm going to give them a full two hours of pressure cooking in the instant pot It's going to be a really really simple fool. There's lots of things you can do You can fry it with onions and you can there's tons of variations But I'm going to make a very very basic form today Just cooking the fool in the instant pot Matching it up adding some olive oil salt really the bare essentials and serving that with some bread


So some of you are looking at trying to see how whether we are writing a poker bot or something it might come as a little bit of disappointment to some of you. So the idea of this talk is actually how do you run random simulations and how how Python really helps you do those things effectively. Okay so that's the basic idea of this talk. So let's get started. Okay a little bit about me so I work as independent consultant mostly do my consultancy in Python but I do in other languages also. So I have run a consultancy company called Hypnoes Software Labs and Python is my go-to language for trying out new ideas and this talk is about one of such ideas that I wanted to try about to go to try. Okay so before we go through the talk so let me try to explain what is the motivation for this particular talk. So sometime back I was thinking what if we could simulate a large number of poker games can that help us define or develop some strategies that you want to that you could use to play a poker game. Okay so how many of you know about poker first of all right. Okay so it's an interesting multiplayer card game I'll be speaking a little I'll be giving a quick introduction of that. So this started with a question basically can we can we can we come out with some strategies if we can simulate a large number of games and then I started kind of working backwards okay so how do you simulate one single game and if you have to simulate one single game how do you basically what are the challenges involved and this talk is basically going to be talking about all of that. Okay so we'll be talking about why this particular problem so just be with me then I'll give a quick introduction about game of poker and what are poker hands etc. How are you how are we going to rank them by that there's going to be a lot of Python code here not a lot about different packages but just Python built-ins and Python standard library okay then we'll see how we can simulate one single poker game and then we are going to look at some results of I ran some of those simulations myself and then we are going to look at some of the results of simulations of those games okay so let's see I mean why this particular problem okay so one of the reasons I chose this problem is because as I said like I really like Python for trying out answers to some some questions that I have and this is one of such questions also it turns out this is a very good candidate for one to actually be able to think in Python what do I mean by thinking in a particular language okay so what do I mean by thinking in a particular language is every language has got certain built-ins certain constructs okay that are available with every language so C has got like a very very basic which is like very core to our very close to machine kind of language Python is like a reasonably high level but let's you do a lot of things so basically thinking in a language means you need to be able to think in terms of the constructs standard library and built-ins of the language so and I thought this is a pretty good interesting candidate problem for being able to think like that as we'll see soon Python has got some built-ins like less dictionary sets and ranking poker hands is a very interesting challenging problem and in the absence of something like a set abstraction it becomes a very hard problem to solve so I think one key take away from this talk if any should be like there's a lot of power in Python's built-in and standard library alone and we should be and we should be able to appreciate that okay so I'll give a quick introduction about a game of poker so that people who don't know about the game of poker will have some idea so it's basically a multiplayer card game and as any multiplayer card game will involve some kind of randomness some kind of luck okay so the way this game is played is each player is dead to have two cars initially and then there are total of five cards which are called as community cards which are basically dealt as three first then one more and then one more so basically what I say is these are the different stages of a game okay and at each of these rounds there is basically betting that happens okay and the betting happens in a round robin manner and whenever a player has bet you can actually match that player's bait or you can bet higher than what the player is bet which is in poker terminology called as raise or use you decide your hand is not good enough to continue and you simply fold it okay so this is a very common poker terminology and at each state all the bets of all the players should be equal if the bet is not equal the player with the highest bet or the best hand wins okay so that's quickly about what is there in the game of poker okay so how many of you know project Euler so this is one of the interesting problems on project Euler if you see how do you compare poker hands okay and we are going to look at Python code to do that so before we let's look at what are typical poker hands okay so in a card game right so the way poker hands are defined or the way the hand is ranked higher is based on how low the probability of that particular hand is okay so at the top you have something called as a royal flush which is basically sequence of cards of the same suite okay after that it's basically the sequence of card of the same suite but as you see ace to ten is higher than eight to four and then you have different kind of cards different kind of hands depending upon what are the odds against those kind of hands okay so I'll show so this is from Wikipedia I don't know how visible it is but this should give you a sum overview about how a rank how how a particular hand is ranked higher okay so one which has got the lowest probability or the lowest number of possible hand is a simple maths okay or the one which has got the odd the highest number of odds against a particular hand is ranked higher okay so as you see that basically this is how hands are ranked in a game of poker so the first one that you see has got a very high almost half more than half a million odds against it whereas if you love if you see the last one which is basically one of two ones so pretty much about 50% of the hands are like the last kind of hands okay so coming back so we will look at how actually we are going to be able to rank the hands like this okay okay so enough about poker so let's let's speak some Python now so to be able to simulate games let's let's see how are we going to basically represent a card then we are going to represent a deck and then we are going to represent poker hands okay so each card has got basically a rank and a suit okay so rank is basically 1 to 13 so one is for ace but we will use actually different ranks which is called 2 to 14 the reason being ace is actually ranked higher than king and queen okay so these are the reasons you are using a different numerical numbers okay and then there are then there are four suites in a card deck which is paired heart diamond and club so simply we can represent a card by the rank and the rank and the suit okay and for every rank we will have some notion of value which will which will which will which will indicate the score of that particular hand and this will come handy when we are going to be comparing the hands okay so again some simple Python that shows how that shows how a poker deck a deck of card is going to look like so we have a list of hands and then a dictionary where keys are the keys are the ranks and the values are their particular score and then you can simply do quickly you can have a deck of the card is going to look something like this simple Python all built-ins we have not used we're not using anything more than Python built-ins and then let's look at different kind of poker hands so it's basically a poker hand then is simply just a list of five cards and that can be represented as follows so the first hand is a flush which is basically all cards are of the same suite which is ace jack nine six and two of spade the second card is a full house where you have two SS and three kings and third card is basically a high card which means which is not a particular type of hand which is like 50% of the card hands are like this okay so you have these are different kinds of poker hands okay so well so now we'll look at how are we going to compare these hands okay so one way of going about it is we are going to define a class called as poker hand okay and basically we will be writing comparator operator for that particular class okay magic functions in Python if you if you guys know okay strictly speaking there's really no reason that you should be using class or something but when we simulate a game we will see why this this becomes very handy so we are basically going to be using the class okay so this is what we are going to be doing okay so the hand is going to look something like this it's a class and then has got these different attributes which says which are the cards a sweets ranks and then there is in the end you have something called as an order so we'll come to it when when we are basically comparing two hands right the two hands could actually have same score and then when they have a same score how are you going to do a tiebreaker so this is where this ordered is going to come is going to come into play so we'll look at little detail about implementation of some of this okay so before we actually so this is going to be our broad strategy okay first given a poker hand see if you can identify the type of a hand okay if you can identify the type of a hand see if you can actually assign some score or value to the hand so that's roughly going to be our strategy okay so if you want to find out whether whether a hand is a flush that means all the cards have the same sweet and this is something you can do in Python using length of set of so it's equal to one so if this condition is true that means it's a flush okay similarly if if there are only two ranks if a if the set of ranks is only two then it's going to be either a four of a kind and a one and or three of a kind and two of a kind so this is basically this gives us some idea about how we can go about finding the hands of the finding the type of a hand okay and a straight is basically is a sequence so basically a max of the ranks and minimum of the ranks the difference is going to be four there's one more condition actually here that all of them have to be distinct hand distinct cards which I have not mentioned here but this gives us some idea about how we can broadly try to solve the problem of identifying the type of a hand okay so having said that let's look at some actual code that does that we discussed something like this some of this code might look a little complicated but it's not really one so if you look at the straight it's basically basically all the ranks are unique which basically says that length of set of ranks is five and max minus minus four but also we need to take care of one more I mean some of the corner cases need to be taken care of for example ace two three four five is also a straight so we need to take care of that and so the second condition is taking care of that so basically you can simply say this is how a straight is look like and then a straight flush is basically it's a self it's a flush and a straight so this is this is how we can actually determine the different kinds of what are going to be the different kinds of hand type of a particular hand okay and like there are about seven types of hand and this is what we are going to be determined okay so now once we have identified the type of a hand the next step is going to be how are we going to assign a score to that particular hand okay so we start with a basic score of one which is which is what every card gets and if a card is of a particular type we kind of double the score and if you look at the if you remember the original probability okay at the lowest level there is a pair which is basically the score is twice the score of the original hand and we simply keep on multiplying the score by two left shift by two is basically multiplying by two and if you see if you have a straight and a flush you will have a score which is multiplied by two rest to five times two rest to four which is basically two rest to nine okay so that's basically how you can see that a particular hand you will have a score of a particular hand okay so so we have done two steps here first identified the type of the hand then we actually assign some kind of a score to a hand okay so if we can now compare the scores of two hand we are pretty much there to solving this particular problem okay there's one more thing though it's quite likely that two hands do have the same score and in that case how are we going to be doing a tiebreaker okay so this ordered is actually doing that okay it's actually doing that so if you look at it it's basically a list of tuples okay I think my next slide is going to explain what the order is look like so the core might look a little difficult little ugly but it's actually a list of tuples basically okay which is of the form the first is the rank and the second that's the second element of the tuple is basically the count of the rank okay so the way you are going to be comparing this is first you will be comparing the first you will be comparing the count if the count is higher than the hand then hand is higher if the counts are equal then you are basically going to be comparing the rank okay and now if we look at this it is this is basically what the sorted is doing it's first looking at the key one which is the second key of the tuple if that is if those are equal then it is going to look at key 0 of the tuple okay so this is this is this is going to be serving as a tiebreaker when we are so this is going to be serving as a tiebreaker when we are basically going to be comparing the hands okay so when trivia is this hand is from the movie casino royale so if you've seen this movie you will probably remember this hand is from that movie okay and once we have done something like this the next step is basically we are going to be defining what is what is called as a comparator operator okay so we are we are defining only a less than comparator operator we are not defining others because if a hand is not less than other way we don't basically care because there are occasionally scenarios in poker games where the two hands are equal indeed equal that happens sometimes don't know rarely and in that case in the poker terminology that is called as basically a split pot so both the players who are in the game till the end are actually going to be the winner in this particular case okay so basically what we have looked at is okay so we we had like three steps in solving this problem the first step was basically comparing the hands so we are kind of basically solve that okay so the next step is a step is going to be trying to see how we are going to be able to simulate one particular poker game and once we are able to simulate one particular poker game we will the next one we will see is how we can simulate a large number of such games and once we have that we will look at some of the results from a large number of such games and try to find out are there some interesting strategies I mean we originally started with that question and we are actually arriving at arriving at that answer okay so basically this is this is this is how we are trying to arrive at that answer okay okay so basically what what does a poker game consists of it's basically a table that contains a given number of player then there are different actions like you have the first deal where each player is dealt two cards and then there are different actions when the first three community cards are revealed it is called as flop and then there is a turn and river so basically when when we want to simulate a poker game we need to be able to simulate some of these actions okay and that is what we will be doing when simulating a poker game okay so basically what do we need to simulate a poker game we need a shuffle deck then we need a number of players okay and we need each player's initial hand because each player will be initially dealt two cards and we need to know about what that player's initial hand is going to look like which we call it as a mini poker hand so if you look at it if if you look at it this mini poker hand also derives from the same called class called as base poker hand the reason being there is an overlap in most of the functionality between a poker hand of five cards versus poker hand of just two cards and we just wanted to abstract out that functionality and this is where it actually helps in using that object oriented feature otherwise strictly speaking there's no need to simply you know force object oriented behavior on that okay so we now know what is it required to actually simulate a card so we will actually start with a class called as poker table so it's it's kind of a bad name that I initially started with and then I had to stick with it so if you look at the code you will come to know why but it's okay it could have been called as a poker game rather than calling it as a poker table but that's what it is okay and when we are going to be simulating poker game we are again going to look at some of the batons and some functions from ita tools from standard library a combinations functions from ita to standard library how it is going to be used so I mean as you would have seen so far I mean everything just from the standard library in fact so far we have not used anything from standard library other than the random now we'll be using some other function some method from ita tools okay so this is so what we discussed so far is actually enough to actually simulate a game okay but we do want to simulate a large number of such games okay and when we want to simulate a large number of such games we want to keep some additional state also in the particular class so ideally this is a state that you would keep outside the class depending upon what kind of questions you want to answer but that's fine I'm for our example this is good enough okay and some of the questions that we want to answer is which player had the best hand in the initial so initially when two cards added which player had indeed the best hand okay and then also we want to look at which player had the best hand at the end of flop at the end of the turn or at the end eventually okay we also like to answer some questions like how many pair how many hands had initially pairs in line okay I mean the question would come why those okay because this is something that if you are actually a player a statistics like this could actually help you strategize how you are going to be betting okay and we want to see we will look at some results from statistics at the end but that this is an additional state that we are keeping in the keeping in this particular poker table class ideally this can be kept separate but this is basically how it is and then we need some we need some functionality to rank players at different stages okay so so basically this is this is what the code is going to look like so so this is a function in the class in the poker table class okay so basically this function will be called either pre-flop before the initial before the three community cards are revealed or post-flop initially you want to if you see this this is where we are basically maintaining the state that number of ace high players number of pair players or the number of many flush players so this is a state that we are keeping in the this is the state that we are keeping in the keeping for the game this is basically this is a simulation state that we are keeping okay and here basically when we have the community cards so the way we want to go about is we want to be able to rank the players right so the way we want to go about doing that is first we will actually make the best hand for a given player and then compare the best hands are gay across the player so for a given player using the community cards you could actually have multiple hands that are possible okay so this is what you actually do in those combinations so use the community cards plus players hand and you get the players hands I mean possible hands that a player can make and then you make the best hand for a player so sorted and reverse to and zero is going to be basically the players best hand and once we have the best hand for each player we are actually going to be able to compare them across the player so basically the second one is exactly doing that and this is the sorted that uses custom function and the second sorted here which is comparing across players is actually using the comparator operator we had in the in the poker hand right so this is where and then simply we have a very simple state basically for every state the table rank zero player ideas is going to be the winner of this particular hand okay and then running one particular game is basically performing these actions okay and all of these actions are part of all of these actions are part of a part of the poker table class which is basically deal is an action okay then you rank players and then you say who's the deal winner then the in poker there is a concept called as a burn card which is basically setting aside a one card from the deck if you look at it in python terms it's simply list dot pop okay and which is actually what that code does just to make poker friendly and so these are all actions and after every action we perform ranking of the player and we keep the state corresponding to that particular ranking in our game state okay similarly we can do it for the turn river and eventually what is going to be our game winner okay so basically this is this is how you can actually simulate a game and collect all the state corresponding to particular game okay now we want to actually see what if we actually simulate a large number of such games are there any interesting statistics that are coming to so this part is actually very simple you just need a kind of a driver for the book code and the driver is simply going to be like it's going to take two variables one is the number of players okay and two is basically the number of games that you want to simulate and it's simply going to run in a for loop this is it's going to simply be running in this particular for right so this is how you are actually going to be simulating a large number of such games okay so in the next few slides I have collected some statistics from simulating some simulating some large about 5000 games okay and these are the couple of questions that I wanted to ask answer okay do the statistics show some interesting patterns are they a function of number of players because this is how you are going to be developing strategies when you are going to be playing okay so that's the idea okay so here I'm going to show statistics for simulation of two players and all of this code is available so something like this you can also run yourself so so what did what did I do is basically I simulated a game for two players okay so the number of players is two and simulated 5000 of such games and the kind of statistics that I'm trying to find out are as follows right so of the 5000 games about 21st 20% of the time which is basically about 1000 games okay is high I mean if a player had an ace high in the initial deal was actually eventually winner in the game so what does that basically means is assuming that every player plays to the end at the end of the game the winner whoever was after we do did a rank players was the player who had initially an ace high okay so this is about 20% of the time I'll explain a bit what is a conditional probability in about 30% of the time a mini flush or a player who had both the cards are of the same suit was actually eventually a winner okay and only in about 10% of the 10% of the games the player who had the player who had a pair initially was actually a winner okay so these if you look at it these look like some kind of let me put it this way this look like some kind of an absolute statistics okay but we need to also look at what do we mean by conditional probability right so let's look at the let's look at the first results okay so of the 5000 play games about 1000 games the ace high player was winner but there were only about 3900 games where actually in the initial deal there was an ace high okay so given now now think about how conditional probability helps you right let's say you are a player and you know you have an ace high hand right that means given you have an ace high hand your conditional probability of eventually winning a game based on based purely on statistics of large number of games is about 25% surprisingly which is not substantially better in fact it is actually comparable with respect to somebody who has a pair hand so basically this is how conditional probability actually helps you so the conditional probability is going to help you when you are as a player you want to actually be developing some strategies okay I'm going to quickly run through the results but you should you can note that the probabilities both absolute and conditional don't change substantially for three players and we have actually very similar players for very similar results for four number of players five players six players and seven players so all of these are pretty pretty similar results right about 25% of the time you have a conditional probability if you had an initial ace had or if you had an initial pair hand that you will win and about 33% of the time if you had both the cards of the same suite that you will actually win okay so these are basically what I say is absolute and conditional probability that you will see in this okay a couple of observations that one can be made okay a flush in the in the initial deal is actually winner we discussed this in the both absolute and conditional terms okay so the number of hands that will win if you if you had a flush and in absolute terms are also likely going to be higher and also as a conditional problem this is okay the pair winners appear to be just half the number of ace high winners but if you actually see the conditional probability they are comparable okay we have seen this then you can actually use this so this is this is these are the probabilities that are talking about initial deal then you can actually do this along with some other statistics okay I don't I have I had this results but I don't have it here so it's in about 75% of the times a player who's a winner at the flop is also an eventual winner and in about almost 85% of the time a player who's winner at the turn is also eventually a winner this is not very unintuitive because you know only if you if you're really winning in the turn are really really bad luck can actually make you lose this okay and a lot of the drama that you see about poker games is usually is a function of pure luck more than a statistics okay a couple of observations that I have about this is my original intuition was these statistics should actually be different for different users but it did it did turn out they don't come they don't substantially change across the number of across the number of players okay that was kind of a surprise and I don't have a very good intuitive answer as to why this is so okay and conditional probability will actually help you devise your strategies okay so how you can use it at each stage you can actually see so let's say you have a conditional probability of 30% of winning a particular hand okay that means if you are risking less than 30% of your capital statistically you have an age over the others right so that's how you can actually use this conditional probability to strategize this and then you can actually refine this because you had an initial conditional probability of winning 30% and then it appears that you are also a flop winner of course it doesn't mean that it appears mean doesn't mean that you will be winning okay so that's basically how you can refine the strategies okay so here are some references okay and then there is this code I have written so I think the links will be available that's that's pretty much what I have


on August 2, 1918. Major General William S. Gray was summoned by our Secretary of War to proceed with all haste from his post at Camp Fremont in California to Kansas City. There he was to meet the Secretary of War at the Baltimore Hotel to receive instructions that would begin one of the most unique military adventures of the 20th century. In Kansas City, Secretary of War Newton D. Baker was waiting for the general with instructions that had been carefully formulated and approved by the President of the United States. President Woodrow Wilson had become increasingly aware of the disorder and confusion resulting from Russia's withdrawal in the war against Germany. The Treaty of Brest-Litovsk threatened the Allied war effort and gave Germany the opportunity of seizing considerable war materiel which had been sent to Russia while that country had been a combatant. The Secretary of War handed General Graves a sealed envelope containing our policy in the Russian situation. The general was informed he would command an American Expeditionary Force in Siberia. Secretary Baker offered this advice, watch your step. You will be walking on eggshells loaded with dynamite. By late summer 1918, the populace of Vladivostok, Siberia watched the arrival of the first American troops that would comprise our expeditionary force. By the end of September, Major General Graves and his carefully selected staff were ready to begin their military adventure in the Siberian sector. Under the general's command were the 27th Infantry Regiment, the 31st Infantry Regiment, the 17th Evacuation Hospital, and administrative and support units. The Expeditionary Force totaled 10,000 officers and men. From August 1918 into April 1920, Siberia was to be the home of this expedition. Cities such as Vladivostok, Khabarovsk, Harbin, Chita, Krasnoyarsk and Omsk would be entered in the activity reports of this expedition. This big picture is a glimpse into that long ago American Expeditionary Force in Siberia. The city of Vladivostok with its strategic Golden Horn Bay was the geographical center for our expeditionary force. From his headquarters on Svetlanskaya Street, General Graves was now prepared to follow the objectives outlined in President Wilson's aid memoir. Objective one was to render all possible assistance to Czechoslovakian troops who had become isolated in Russia as a result of that country's capitulation to Germany. Czech military units were now making their way toward Vladivostok. The next task was to enable them to leave Russia and to return to their homeland, or if possible, to use them in a reconstituted eastern front which had by now collapsed. The Czechoslovakian army had distinguished itself in combat against Germany and the safety of these seasoned troops was considered essential by the Allies. Objective two was to guard military supplies and equipment which had been shipped to Russia during her participation in the war against Germany. With Russia no longer a combatant, Allied military supplies were to be protected from seizure or destruction by any force hostile to our military interests. The third objective outlined in the President's aid memoir to General Graves was to provide humanitarian assistance to the Russian people. National disorder had made thousands of Russians homeless which had created an aggravated refugee problem. Hunger and sickness were ever present. Refugees sought shelter wherever possible in railroad terminals, railroad cars, and in improvised shanties. The American Red Cross, working with the American Expeditionary Force, offered assistance to the homeless, the hungry, and the sick. Dr. R. B. Tuesler was the Chairman of the American Red Cross Commission for Siberia. He and his staff, along with nurses and doctors, wrote an inspiring chapter into American Red Cross tradition. Beyond these specific objectives, General Graves and his men were to avoid any involvement in the erupting internal affairs of Russia. This presidential directive was easier issued than followed, but General Graves, a West Point graduate from the class of 1889, adhered to these policies with great perseverance during the precarious time of his expedition to Siberia. To the American soldiers of this expeditionary force, the challenge of accomplishing our objectives was monumental, and military life in Siberia, to say the least, was unusual. The 27th Infantry Regiment, under the command of Colonel Henry D. Steyer, had sailed from the Philippines to Vladivostok. Two of its companies established rail security between Vladivostok and Nikolsk, Osuri, while remaining elements established camp in the Vladivostok perimeter. The 31st Infantry Regiment had also sailed from the Philippines. They arrived in Vladivostok in mid-August 1918, under the command of Colonel Frederick H. Sargent. They established operations in the Kuborovsk region. Garrison duty in Siberia was mostly training. The Siberian landscape became host to the marching, drilling, and target practice of military units, not only from the United States, but from Japan, China, Britain, Canada, France, and Italy as well. Our American Expeditionary Force was part of a combined military representation. The Supreme Allied War Council, fearing the results of the Brest-Litovsk Treaty, directed military forces to northern Russia as well as Siberia. In this latter operation, Japan had agreed to a United States proposal that she join this multinational expedition. General Kikuzo Otani of the Imperial Japanese Army was the Senior Allied Officer present and was given command by the Supreme Allied War Council. The American Expeditionary Force, however, remained autonomous under the command of General Graves. Even so, much of the military activity in the Siberian sector required careful coordination and mixed representation. Vladivostok assumed the appearance of an international settlement and its railroad station and important military center was under a rotating guard from each of the military forces stationed in that city. This was the eastern terminal of the Great Trans-Siberian Railroad. Now it became a reception center for military and civilian travel and the city itself was a reflection of the currents which were racing across all of Russia. In the Golden Horn Bay area, the arrival of Allied vessels was increasing. The flagship of our American Asiatic Fleet, the USS Brooklyn, under the command of Admiral Rogers, arrived in Fort in the fall of 1918. General Graves, with members of his staff and John Caldwell, the U.S. consul in Vladivostok, visited Admiral Rogers to discuss our Siberian operation. While this review was taking place, the sailors and marines from the USS Brooklyn spent much of their time going through ship and shore drill. Flagships of other countries represented in the Siberian expedition were also riding anchor in the harbor. The British cruiser, Suffolk, provided support to the land-based units from that country. The first-knife Hampshire's were one of the British units. This parade along Svetlanskaya Street was prior to their rail movement to the city of Omsk, where Russian Admiral Alexander Kolchak had seized power and established a dictatorship throughout Siberia and eastern Russia. The involved and confusing internal situation in Russia was a constant concern to Allied presence in Siberia. General Graves was realizing the significance of Secretary Baker's comment about eggshells loaded with dynamite. Military parades along Svetlanskaya Street were a standard part of the training regiment. This one included units from all Allied countries represented in the Siberian expedition. By now, the citizenry of Vladivostok was becoming accustomed to the drum beats, the martial music, and the cadence. There were opportunities to relax and forget the soldiering for a little while. At the hippodrome in Vladivostok, Canadian soldiers hosted a spirited, allied, athletic contest. And at Khabarovsk, Siberia, where part of the 27th Infantry was garrisoned, a Wild West show must have looked pretty strange to the local populace. Just as strange to our troops was the sight of Ataman-Kolmikov's Cossacks, who were part of Alexander Kolchak's all Russian army in Siberia. These fierce-looking Cossacks were something to watch. Music In the spring of 1919, the Russian Railway Service Corps, a non-combatant unit, commanded by American colonel John Stevens, was given responsibility for maintaining rail operations along the Trans-Siberian Railroad, over which Czech military units were reaching Vladivostok on their troubled journey home. Adventures along the vast area serviced by the Trans-Siberian were daily occurrences. Each allied country had assigned sectors of control responsibility. No one could ever be quite certain as to what the next day would bring. At Harbin Manchuria, the Trans-Siberian Railroad served a vital transfer point for passenger and freight travel between China, Siberia and Russia. Protection of this rail center was essential to the allies. Travel along the railroad was quite another problem. Clearance of damaged or destroyed Russian trains was a frequent necessity. Debris, dynamited tracks and other obstacles were the results of the internal turmoil, which was raging throughout Russia. The rail traffic along the Trans-Siberian was a mixture of the divergent interests operating in this area. One of the most essential uses of the Trans-Siberian was to transport the sick and wounded back to Vladivostok. American military doctors and nurses from the field hospital that was part of our expeditionary force were confronted with wounded soldiers, typhus cases, severe frostbite and related ravages from the Siberian weather. This evacuation hospital was commanded by Colonel Thomas E. Scott. Seventeen American nurses were with our expeditionary force. They were under the supervision of Chief Nurse K. C. Hannon and were stationed at our field hospital in Tumen, Siberia. From August 1918 through December 1919, American soldiers guarded rail depots, stores of war material and supervised German and Austrian prisoners who had been incarcerated when Russia had been in the war. In January 1920, Czech units were safely in Vladivostok and were being evacuated to their own country. World War I had ended and military supplies were no longer subject to hostile seizure. Conditions inside Russia dictated no further use of our military expedition. Washington instructed General Graves to remove his entire operation. By April 1920, he and his American expeditionary force would brought an adventure to be recorded in history books and preserved on this precious film taken by signal corps cameraman of the United States Army.


Rydyn ni'n ffordd. Mae'n ganddlu sy'na bod yn ôl. Ac mae'n ffordd mor sicrhau. Mae'n ganddlu sy'n gwreithi gyda. Mae'r ffordd mwy o'r gwynhau. Mae'n ganddlu sy'n gwreithi gyngor, mae'r mwy o'r gwybod theatersau. Mae rhaid i'r ganddlu sy'n wneud ymysglaen ar hynned i ddiogelio. Mae'n ganddlu sy'n gwreithi comeio. Mae rhaid i'r ganddlu sy'n gwreithi amgylcheddol am tuべonol. Fe oedd y pethau yn dwi'n gw velvetio erioed, yn oed o'r corf, ond yw'r grwp iawn. Yn ymrwyf. Roedd gennym nhw'n ystod y wahanol, nid ito'u mynedd, ac rwy'n gweithio ar ymddangos. Mae'r gweithio yma'r haneswn llawer nid o'r ffordd rwych, sy'n oed oedd yn rhaid o'r prysgolau fforddol yn y prysgol a'r byd, ac yw'n arhysig yn hynod i'r brifio i gefnogaeth, ond diwrnodd yn oed. As you do, we sort of scour social media to see who's saying nice things about you and I came across this brilliant quote from an account that described itself as women plumbers and I thought well that is a really good constituency to have behind you but even better than that was the name of their company. What are you going to call a firm of exclusively women plumbers? And they'd chosen to call themselves stop cocks. I thought my time on this planet is well served and I can leave it happily. That was rather good. Naming is another big, big, big issue as you've witnessed the tragic scenes of the environmental extremes in America at the moment and you could not make it up that a town called Paradise is burnt to the ground. I mean, Joni Mitchell sang about paving over Paradise. I don't think she ever envisaged it being burnt to the ground and I thought we need to use naming to our advantage and I wonder whether in fact we shouldn't name, we're in the middle of hurricane season as well now, I wonder whether we should actually name hurricanes instead of giving them these kind of anodyne names like Kevin and indeed my own name taken in vain Andrew and things like that, instead name them after fossil fuel companies. Hurricane Exxon, Hurricane BP. Anyway, I digress. I'm going to talk to you about the possibility of rapid transition because we're told that it's easier to imagine the end of the world than a change to the current economic system and our way of life. We were told just a couple of weeks ago, the latest state of the art science from the IPCC, that to hit the target that the world has signed up to, the 1.5 degree warming target, we are going to need, and these are their words, rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented change across the whole of the economy and society. Of course, with brilliant timing, the British government chose to have Green GB Week when they had their European launch and in Green GB Week we saw the green light for fracking, we saw subsidies to renewable and low carbon transport cut, we saw subsidies to fossil fuels, we saw expanding aviation and a further commitment to more runways and we saw the announcement of a major new road between Essex and Kent. You kind of think that the message somehow isn't getting through and that's in spite of the fact that some of the latest findings additionally from the UK's meteorological office say that where that 1.5 degree target is concerned, we could be under some scenarios as little as five years away before we cross that threshold and that the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere at the moment is at a potentially 15 million year high. Now, that's all kind of big and it's kind of out there and it's kind of quite hard to get your head round, but when you break it down into the nitty gritty details, the practical realities of our day-to-day lives, another night, I say nice, it's kind of terrifying piece of number crunching from some scientists in Germany looking at the loss of glacier ice calculated that it takes about just 500 metres of driving in an averagely efficient modern German car to lead to the melting of a kilogram of glacier ice and that's if you believe the fuel efficiency figures and the rule of thumb on the degree to which they're overstated means it's probably, you only have to drive about 290 metres before you have directly contributed to the melting of a kilogram of glacier ice and it kind of makes it connect, it just kind of makes it a little bit more real because for everything that we know, for everything that we know, the world is still dependent upon fossil fuels for about 82% of our energy supply and if you look at the projections of the international bodies that look at this stuff like the IEA, they think that our demand for fossil fuels is going to rise still for decades to come. So something somewhere isn't working. We know we need those rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented cuts in our energy use, in our use of materials and that is two things are the priorities the IPPCC said that we need to commit to. Now on the upside, we know that we have scenarios that could see 100% renewables by 2050 in 139 countries, the modelling's been done but in the meantime the climate is changing faster than we are and not many people really believe that we've got the ability and the wit to speed up. So one of the things that we're going to be doing when we launch the rapid transition alliance in a couple of weeks is looking at examples where things have happened quicker so that we can see the agency that we potentially have because I believe that we've got built in not just a lot more resilience but a lot more agency and capacity to adapt than we give ourselves credit for. Now what makes me think that? Well one of the things that makes me think that is something that happened in the early hours of Wednesday, the 14th of April 2010 when a dormant volcano covered in ice with a very hard to pronounce name. Any Icelanders in the audience? I think it sounds like eia ffietlau gych chi, but I'm not prepared to be tested. Anyway, this volcano went off. Nobody heard it across northern Europe because it was far away in Iceland.  And that's because fine dust from the cloud thrown up by the volcano is lethal to modern jet engines. And for days Europe was grounded. One of the main arteries of the modern world, the global economy, cheap ubiquitous air travel was suddenly cut. But what happened next was revelatory and a demonstration of how rapidly we can adapt to live without seemingly indispensable facets of modern life. It was a glimpse, I think, of a future in which climate change and ultimately limited oil supplies would have clipped one industry's wings. It was inconvenient. No one was prepared. But supermarkets quickly substituted local produce for perishable luxury horticultural goods that normally get flown in. Delivery companies switched transport modes. Business people took to video conferencing. Norway's prime minister at the time, Stoltenberg, was stranded in New York. So he ran the Norwegian government from the United States from his iPad. So suddenly the skies were peaceful and people found other ways to get from one place to another. They took trains, buses, taxes, and aided by social media, they shared cars, they shared rooms, they shared experiences. Spare capacity in other transport modes was taken up. Flexible communications allowed people to be present virtually where they couldn't be physically. People talked to each other and, travelling at a slower pace, found themselves enjoying the scenery and being more aware of the world that they were passing through and strikingly. As flying was something many people thought we couldn't live without, the world did not come to a standstill and everything simply carried on. Now there's other precedents to sudden changes in the way that we get around, which can speak to the present moment as well. And it speaks to a way in which perhaps we've forgotten how good we are at making things happen quickly and at scale. Now in the recent modern era, it took about 15 years just to electrify about 390 miles of existing railway track on the UK's east coast mainline. And it went massively over budget. But engineering endeavour saw rapid infrastructure development between 1845 and 1852, where nearly four and a half thousand miles of track were laid in Britain. On a single weekend in 1892, by contemporary standards, engineers began a project of breathtaking ambition, which began on the morning of Saturday, May the 21st at dawn, and was finished by 4am on the following Monday, May the 23rd. One weekend in just two days, a small perfectly coordinated army of about 4,000 workers laid a total of 177 miles of track along the great western route to the south west, converting the old gauge line. Now, if you want to look at something a little bit more recently, in post war America, and this is an example of how, if you like, we need to reverse ferret, how quickly we laid down that fossil fuel intensive infrastructure. Because in the US, in the highways program, using a lot of that spare post war capacity, in the space of three decades, they laid about 47,000 miles of road and in the process dismantled some of the more environmentally friendly urban mass transit systems. So if we can do the wrong thing quickly, we can certainly reverse just as fast. And you look at another problem which we seem to struggle with at the moment, so desperately, the housing crisis in this country. And I say that one of the great challenges of decarbonising the economy is how we retrofit our existing housing and building stock. Now we struggle to meet the demand for housing now, but at a time when the country was far economically weaker in the post war period, and under governments which were both Labour and Conservative, we were building social housing at the rate of over 200,000 homes a year at the peaks in the 50s and 60s. Now most recently, in terms of local authorities in England, if you're looking back at the year 2014-2015, we managed just about 1,400 new homes. The current government target, which they describe as ambitious, is for 12,000 in a year. I think that's extraordinary. How do we forget how to do things? How can we find out how to do things at speed and scale that we need to do again? I was really pleased to see that some of the new Democrats in the US have just been elected committing to a programme, a Green New Deal programme, an idea that we launched in the teeth of the financial crisis in 2008, seeing that being taken up as a major plank of policy in America is amazing. Now there's other things, much more recent, thinking again about that financial crisis. In the midst of the financial crisis in 2008, not only with decades of received wisdom, torn up so that we, the public, could bail out the private banking sector, we were told that you can't buck the markets and that's until they make such a mess that you have to clear up after them. But faced with recession, rapidly rising energy prices, growing lines at food banks, rising unemployment and mortgage foreclosures, instead of simply bringing a knife to public spending and pushing austerity measures in the United States, a man called John Huntsman, Utah's Republican governor, surprised people with an experiment to save money. At just a month's notice, he put about three quarters of the public workforce on a four-day week. He closed about 900 public buildings on a Friday and they had the presence of mind to study the impact and then what they found was that about eight out of ten employees really liked a shorter working week and they wanted it to continue. Two-thirds said it made them more productive, many said it reduced conflict both at home and at work. Workplaces across the state reported higher staff morale and lower absenteeism and there were other surprises too. One in three among the public thought that the new arrangements that were introduced to deal with the four-day week actually improved access to services and even though it wasn't the main objective, they found that a stroke moving to a four-day week also reduced their carbon emissions by 14%. That's a huge annual climate friendly saving and by then the option of a four-day week or shorter had already become a standard contractual option in the Netherlands and then a sign of growing appeal in 2013 even at the Gambia they decided to do a similar thing for the public sector. The shorter working week is one of those ways in which you can create space to live a far more sustainable life. Living sustainable lives also means major shifts in culture. How hard are they? We get locked in. Advertising locks in a culture of consumerism. We get locked in with these messages defined as first and foremost as consumers and I notice one of the badges that proudly states citizen not consumer. I rather like that. And those messages far outweigh visible invitations to think of ourselves as citizens with broader extended responsibilities. It's a key cultural dimension that makes it hard to imagine or believe in the possibility of rapid change. Materialism and related over consumption display a kind of self-reinforcing and negative dynamic. Now in a lot of replicated studies brilliantly summarised by an American academic called Tim Cassey it's been shown that holding more materialistic values is an indicator of having relatively lower levels of well-being. Mili being exposed to images of consumer goods triggers materialistic concerns which makes us feel worse and is linked to more antisocial and less pro-environmental behaviour. It's also been shown that children exposed to advertising are seen to be less likely to interact socially and as other studies which show help by simply referring to people as consumers rather than citizens. It triggers more competitive and selfish behaviour. Well that sounds like quite a big block but there's already some practical examples of action to combat that. In hardly the world's centre for being party pooping in Brazil in 2007 in its biggest city Sao Paulo led by a conservative mayor Gilberto Casab they introduced the clean city law. The result was a near total ban affecting billboards, digital signs and advertising on buses. In the United States there are several states which strongly control public advertising too and in Paris more recent rules have reduced advertising on the city streets by 30% and kept the size of hoardings. No adverts are allowed within 50 metres of school gates. The Indian city of Chennai banned billboard advertising and in Grenoble in France. They recently banned commercial advertising in public spaces in the city streets to enhance opportunities for non-commercial expression. Several hundred advertising signs were replaced by tree planting and community and notice boards and spaces for artistic activity. In recent decades in terms of belief in the possibility of change we've seen huge and relatively quick changes in behaviour around smoking, around driving, around sexual health. I wonder if the evidence very recently is that behaviour change and the possibility of attitude change may be accelerating.  I know I'm a man but I'm certainly not male only on this platform today. Attitudes around sexual identity, the idea of men only clubs. History is teaching us nothing but only punishes us for not learning its lessons said the great medieval historian Vasily Klochevski, Russian guy. But I don't think that's true. I think we can learn from the past and what we're going to be doing with a rapid transition alliance which we would love all of you to have a look at and if you're part of an organisation you think it will be appropriate to sign up and affiliate please do. We're going to share evidence based hope on the possibilities and the practicalities of rapid transition to more socially just and sustainable ways of being. If we believe in the possibility of change we bring it that much closer. So just to finish I'll leave you with my favourite words which many of you may well have heard before but I love them and I think it's almost good to say them like a mantra. The great public intellectual Raymond Williams who said that to be truly radical is to make hope possible rather than despair convincing and in the teeth of everything we face I think that is our challenge today so thank you very much for listening.