In this video I want to show how one can compute a delta value given a function and some specified epsilon or more specifically what domain of allowance is appropriate if we're given a specific function and a specific margin of error. So in this question we have provided the graph of a function f you can see over here and we're asked to identify what number delta what's sort of like the the best choice of delta to the guarantee that the absolute value of x minus one when it's less than delta will imply that x cubed minus five x plus six minus two its absolute value is less than point two. So this this package right here is pretty tightly bound let's try to unravel it a little bit and so when it comes to these type of statements with epsilon and delta I would recommend looking at the latter half first what does this mean so when we try to identify what's going on here some things to mention so we have this x cube minus five x plus six put in parentheses this is indicating to us the function that's in play this is our function f of x our function has some target value right here of two this right here is our l value and this number on the right less than point two this is going to be our epsilon essentially what we're looking for is something like the following in general these epsilon delta statements will have an expression of the form the absolute value of f of x minus l is less than epsilon and so just reading these things off we get our function f is this cubic function y equals x cube minus five x plus six l which is our target value is equal to two and our acceptable error is going to be point two so let's analyze this in the diagram our function f was given right here again it's this cubic function we don't really know what's going on in the domain right now we'll come back to that in a second but let's look at what's going on in the range so given our function l we have this target value l this is the number we're trying to hit and if we come along the function we're going to hit l just about right here okay our epsilon value is set to be point two so we're allowed to go point two above or below our target so point two above two would be two point two and two point two below two would be one point two so these numbers right here are going to be l plus epsilon and l minus epsilon we've computed those and so with l minus epsilon l plus epsilon we then create the margin of error which you can see in our diagram is right here it's this strip this this horizontal strip as long as our point is inside of this strip we're considered acceptable this is in the margin of error so what our task is is how our what what domain what interval of x coordinates will guarantee that we're inside of this so then once we've once we've scrutinized the range now let's focus on the domain here if our function is x cubed minus six x plus one and our target is l equals two what value should we aim with that is what number in the domain is going to hit l equals two so looking at the graph here if we come along y equals two we're going to hit the graph and then we fall down here and we're going to hit our a value now for this specific function we can see that the appropriate a value is going to equal a equals or is a equals one and one can actually see that if you evaluate the function at one f of one right here you end up with one cubed minus five plus six this ends up giving you seven minus five which is equal to two so x equals one is spot on going to give us y equals two so that's the perfect target right there so all of this information is given to us because when we look over here this absolute value of x minus one less than delta that should be interpreted as the absolute value of x minus a is less than delta for which this a value will be a specific number but delta is the thing in question that's what we have to figure out here so again summarizing in general when you see this box of information this will look like the absolute value of x minus a is less than delta that implies that guarantees the absolute value of f of x minus l is less than epsilon so if the distance between x and a is less than delta that'll guarantee the distance between y and l is less than epsilon so if we want to be epsilon close to l we need to guarantee that x is delta close to a that that's our goal here and so we have to figure out what is the specific a value so we have all that stuff decided here so to actually figure out what the delta value is we need to figure out what these numbers are right here so this blue strip you see on the graph this would be our domain of allowance we can go so far to the left of a so far to the right of a how far can we go well if we want to figure out say this value right here we have to figure out well who's the corresponding value above so we come up to the function one of these numbers is going to coincide with 2.2 another one of these numbers will coincide with 1.8 now you'll notice in this situation that the point on the right actually corresponds to the lower bound in the margin of error that's because our function's decreasing likewise the left bound actually coincides with the larger value in the margin of error because again our function's decreasing if our function was increasing we would see it the other way around that the number on the left coincides with the smaller number the number on the right coincides with the bigger number all right so we need to solve a cinch we need to solve the equations playing around with this inequality right here we need to solve the equation what is f of x equal 1.8 and when does it equal 2.2 if we can figure that out we can figure out what those those x values are going to be so we're looking for these numbers we'll call them x1 and x2 so if we take the equation x cubed minus 5x plus 6 this equals 1.8 this this equation one could solve purely algebraically it can be a little bit of a chore though I'm not going to worry about the details of this what I would recommend is using some type of graphing calculator or graphing technology of some kind if you have a graphing calculator you could solve this by graphing the function y equals x cube minus 5x plus 6 and then graphing the line y equals 1.8 and then you could ask wherever these two things intersect each other you could do this with desmos.com this is actually a free graphing calculator desmos.com there d s m o s there if you go to the graphing calculator you could then graph this function graph this function then you could click a button to see exactly where they intersect another option that I think is actually one of the simplest is just go to the website www.wolffromalpha.com and then in the box type in solve the following equation and it will give you a solution and we're going to need an approximate solution x is approximately 1.124 so we're not the reason I'm pointing you to these graphing calculators it's because of the purpose of this question the the point is not how does one solve or approximate this equation this is just to help us to figure out what delta is so assuming we can solve these equations we would approximate this we approximate the solution to f of x equals 1.8 that would give us approximately x is 1.124 if we do it again but this time with f of x equals 2.2 if you solve that equation you'll get approximately x is 0.911 so what we see right here is the lower bound is going to be 0.911 the upper bound is going to be 1.124 we got these answers fusing the graphing calculator like I just mentioned here because again I don't really want to worry about how did we get these answers but we have to assume there's a little bit of error in these things right because after all these are approximations these are not exact answers so it could be that if you take x to be 1.124 you plug in the function is it going to be exactly equal to 1.8 or could it be a little bit above 1.8 or a little bit below 1.8 yikes and so because of that we want to round these things a little bit just to guarantee that it's safer because we can always shrink the the main of of allowance because the idea is if you if you have these goalposts that you have to be within if you put them a little bit closer and you still get between the goalpost that'll be guaranteed to be in the margin of error and so what we're going to do is we're going to take these numbers right here and we're going to round them but we're always going to round toward a always have to round toward a what that means in this context here is if you take the number 1.124 right if you round that to the to the nearest one hundredth that's going to give you that x2 is equal to 1.12 excuse me so we round to the nearest 100 no big deal that rounds towards a that is we took a small step closer to a on the other hand if you take x1 here if normally if you were to round this to like say two decimal places you get 0.91 but that actually takes me a step away from a so we're actually going around this to 0.92 again getting us closer to a because if we take a step away from a we actually might step outside of the domain of allowance which we wouldn't want that so then to calculate delta what we need to do is we need to then take the difference between the x1 and x2 values like how close are they to a so we're going to take the absolute value of x1 minus a and we're going to take the absolute value of x2 minus a for which x1 we see that's going to be 0.92 minus 1 for x2 we're going to give 1.12 minus 1 the second one is actually fairly straightforward that's going to give you a 0.12 right here the other one is also pretty easy I should say it's going to give you a 0.8 and so this is how far we are away from from a to the left we are 0.08 steps away from a on the right we are 0.12 when deciding the delta value we always choose the smaller of the options so our delta value is going to be the smaller step that is the minimum we're going to take 0.08 and so that's what we have to choose for delta right here if we come back up to our graph and we examine it for just a moment you'll notice that although this graph is not completely labeled right it is actually for it is computer with generated with the computer so again it's not perfectly to scale but it is it's pretty good here you'll notice the point I'm trying to emphasize here if you notice the left side of a versus the right side of a it's skewed right a is not the midpoint of the domain of allowance the smaller side is on the left the bigger side on the right and so what we've essentially done we saw here that the distance on the left hand side was 0.08 and the distance on the right hand side was 0.12 so what we can do is we can always shave off a little bit on the bigger side so if we were to shave off 0.04 we can then get a sector so it's the left hand side is delta thick and the right hand side is delta thick and that's the goal can we find a single symmetric delta so that the left hand side the right hand side if we are no more than delta units away from a will guarantee that we are epsilon no more than epsilon units away from l and so we do that by choosing the minimum that is choosing the smaller of these two sides of a now it should be mentioned that our choice of delta this 0.08 right it's not a unique choice right this is essentially the largest choice of delta that we can guarantee will get us inside the margin of error but you could always choose a smaller delta that would also guarantee that's why we're able to round the way we did it's where we'll be able to shave some things off you can always choose it to be smaller and smaller smaller if you shrink the domain of allowance that'll still keep you within the margin of error it's when you lengthen the domain that things get into problems for example choosing a smaller delta will place the output within an acceptable margin of error thus a smaller delta generally guarantees a more precise output but on the other hand a smaller delta may be more difficult to implement right if in this example we didn't actually have any real-life context to our function but if we're if we're shrinking for example delta to be like 10 to the negative 100th right that would work that that's much smaller than 0.08 but it might be impractical to expect people computers to have this level of precision and so we want to know who's the most generous choice of delta that'll guarantee that we fall within the margin of error


We are very vulnerable in Europe. For some of these materials we are depending quasi fully of other countries. More than 80% of our earths are coming from China. If we translate that to Europe, that would mean that we need 35 times as much lithium as today. That's an enormous increase. Electrical mobility stands for about 60% of the total demand of these metals for the energy. If we really want to go fast, we have to pay a price for that. We really have to do all things together today. Hello everyone and welcome to the Circular Metabolism Podcast, the bi-weekly meeting where we have in-depth discussions with researchers, policymakers and practitioners, to better understand the metabolism of our societies or in other words, their resource use and pollution emissions and how to reduce them in a systemic, socially just and context-specific way. Today I'm very pleased to share a two-part episode on exploring the resource use and climate impact of mobility. In fact, mobility is responsible for a very large share of our CO2 emissions, energy use and material use, both for the construction of vehicles and their associated infrastructure like roads. This two-part episode is a collaboration with Urban Mobility Explained, UMX, a YouTube channel powered by EIT Urban Mobility. In fact, I would recommend you go check out their YouTube channel as every week they publish videos covering quite broad environmental and social impacts of mobility and solutions from cities around Europe. To explore the resource use impacts of mobility, I'm glad to welcome Carl Van Acker. Carl is Professor in Sustainable Materials Management at KU Leuven. His research developed strategies to realize the circular economy and develop sustainability assessments of material life cycles including mobility. With all that being said, Carl, welcome to the podcast. Thank you, Elstide. Let's situate our discussion into two main reports. I think this one, the one that you did, Metals for Clean Energy, Pathways to Solving Europe's Raw Material Challenge. This was carried out by you and your colleagues for Eurometo, if I understand correctly. What was the rationale? What were they looking for? What did you need to bring forward with this report, right? Of course, there is a concern of supply of metals. So the transition towards clean energy demands a lot of metals that are a bit more exotic and then the commodities we are used to, such as the lithium, the cobalt, but also the rare earth metals and so forth. And the question actually was, where is Europe situated in that demand for metals for the clean energy? Can we meet that demand in Europe and how could we be able? So the report was discussing first of all, what will be the demand? How will it evolve in the coming years? And then we looked at, yeah, what is the supply and that is corresponding to that? Can we say something about how that will evolve in the future? And where are the gaps, of course, since that's the whole thing. And if there are gaps, how can we cope with them? What should we do? And you can do different things. No, actually jump a little bit to the main conclusions. But what you can do is open new mines, extend the mining and especially in Europe, we could look at more mining in Europe. We can also try to import more and to have very good relations with African countries and other countries that are suppliers of the resources for these metals. So that's more the geopolitical game. And for that, we also need a lot of infrastructure in Europe. But of course, we can also try to recycle much more. And our study was also looking at that. So when can recycling deliver a decent amount of these resources that we need? And, yeah, at last, we also have to look at a circular economy. Can circular economy strategies, can they reduce the demand actually for these metals? So that's a bit the context. We are very vulnerable in Europe. We all know that we are depending for some of these materials. We are depending quasi fully of other countries for their earths. That's very obvious and more than 80% of our earths are coming from China. For Lithium, that's also obvious. Most of Lithium is coming from South American countries today. But also for commodities that we also will need, such as nickel. Also there, we see that we depend a lot of again from China, but more and more also from Indonesia. So geopolitics are very important there. And certainly today, with all the crisis and the COVID and the Ukraine war and so forth. That's important that in Europe we get a position that is a bit more autonomous, let's say. And that's also the reason why the critical raw materials act has been or will be voted to make sure that our economy can rely on a steady supply of these metals. Yeah, I think it's important to, as you mentioned, you underlined. So there is the geopolitical side, but there is also the decarbonization side. So Europe is now pushing very fast, trying to, well, reduce the fossil fuel dependency and perhaps push it to another dependency, the one of metals that we're going to see. Exactly, yeah. However, there is a catch, of course, the clean energy technologies, including electric vehicles, photovoltaic panels, wind turbines, and also the electrification of our mix, the grids and all of this will require a lot more metals than before. For the same thing, they will require more elements, right? Perhaps could we give a brief reminder of what is the situation today of metal use and what do you think is going to happen later? So for instance, I think we extract 100 gigatons per year, total materials, and globally, exactly, not only Europe, Europe must be a fraction like 10, I don't know how much it must be, but we extract around 2 gigatons of steel out of this 1.8 or something like that. And then we go to, we find the stand, 100 million tons of aluminum and copper and nickel and stuff like that. And then the rest of these rare or exotic metals, it's just around 100 kilotons per year or something like that. How do you see this mix today and what do you think is going to happen tomorrow? First of all, you named the different applications or the different things we need for the clean energy transition. But I really wanted to stress here, especially for this podcast, that for this transition towards electrical mobility, that stands for about 60% of the total demand of these transition metals for the energy transition. So solar panels and things like that are important as well. But the biggest share is for electrical mobility. So we have to be aware of that. And that's in Europe or also globally? Globally. Yeah, that's globally. Yeah, concerning the metals, we have to actually discern two types of materials. You have the metals that are very specific for this energy transition. And lithium is one of them. There we see that the increase in demand is really enormous. So globally, the increase for the energy transition of demand for lithium is 21 times the demand in 2020 by 2050. 21 times globally. If you look at it, if it translates into Europe, where things are expected to evolve a bit faster and it's also very much stimulated by the European Commission to go faster, that would mean that we need 35 times as much lithium as today. So that's an enormous increase. In 30 years. Yeah, in 30 years only. So yeah, you really can expect that there are some difficulties there. You have to combine all these different strategies. We have to look where we can find them in Europe. And if we can open mines for them in Europe, if we can increase also the supply from Chile and Argentina. The other type of metals that we need are more the commodities. And let's take nickel, that's a commodity. Yes, there is in absolute terms, there is a real increase of the demand for them. But on top of what is already used for nickel. And actually nickel is mainly used in stainless steel. So the amounts of stainless steel for construction are so high that it's not a ripple. But yeah, it's not the 350% as we had for lithium needed. So it's an increase of an annual increase of about 3% something. But the amounts of nickel that are mined are already large. So in absolute terms again, it's still a huge amount. So we still need to open new mines. That means that mainly Indonesia is doing that. So there are two different things to discern the lithium where we really can find solutions as opening mines in Europe, starting with recycling it's better and so forth. And the commodities such as nickel where we could try to do more in Europe. But we will still mainly depend on the other countries of origin. Except maybe if there would be some seabed mining for example. Then we could also increase the supply of nickel. But that's also for the further future and it's not for tomorrow. Will that increase a lot this 100 gigaton as you mentioned? I don't believe that. In the total amount of materials more than 50% is used for construction. So that will not change. But we need these specific metals. That's the point. We need these specific metals for the energy transition. So we really depend on them. We cannot do anything without them. Although there are also shifts and we have to understand that scientific research is ongoing. Take for example the batteries for cars. The composition of batteries is changing all the time. One of the big issues for batteries until today is or maybe I should say was cobbled. Yeah where you know cobbled is for a large part coming from the eastern Congo region. The circumstances of mining are not that good there. It's also an unstable region. That's a real problem. It's also very polluting. It has a high footprint as well. But what we see is that the composition of these batteries is changing such that less and less cobbled is needed per battery. Of course we need more batteries. So the nickel manganese cobbled composition manganese and cobbled composition is gradually going down. What we also see is that there is a real trend towards more lithium iron phosphate batteries where then the nickel and the cobbled is not in anymore. So we have to realize that what we see today that's very very difficult to sustain, to cope with these supply demands. But another aspect is that materials innovations also are giving us solutions. So it's also something to take into account. Of course yeah we're gonna see we can perhaps also discuss in the in the future how you know different innovation over time can they arrive at the right time or you know enough in advance to cope with some issues. We talked about it just before but perhaps we can underline here. It's the clean energy technologies are very hungry in metals right and metals other than still. So I had here two examples from the IEA one of the electric car and one of the power generations. You probably have seen you know these how I think it's the conventional car requires like 50 kilograms of metals per vehicle whereas the electric one is 200 kilograms. Of course if we exclude still right because that completely the body is not included. Which I think it's a bit of a weird way to to compare it but in any case and then the same thing with power generation for for one megawatt produced you need approximately 16 000 of 16 000 kilograms of metals whereas for a plant of coal or natural gases two or one thousand kilograms per megawatt. So there is still a lot of metals included for clean energy but I think we need to underline that some things are missing so we're not calling about we're not talking about still we're not talking about concrete in all of these so that will radically change of course the image and of course you know by having a clean energy you don't consume the fossil fuels that are also extracted right so can you nuance a bit these numbers that always that are very you know in the in the news saying that clean energies consume more metals than others can we nuance this the story or this graph that's true so in the production of this car we indeed need more metals we can't deny that but as you said in the use phase of the car that's a different story of course so we don't consume anymore the fossil oil so we don't have to drill anymore for them for the energy plants there are so a lot of energy plants working on coal for example yeah by going towards renewable energy we have to mine these metals but we close the coal mines don't forget that and yeah there are less mines needed for these metals and then there are coal mines needed for the energy production in that sense of course it is nuanced another thing that that we have to realize is that if you have an internal combustion engine with fossil fuel you consume that fuel once so you extract it from the earth you only use it once and it's gone extremely linear economy right for the metals what and we have done simulations on that yeah for the metals there will be an enormous demand the coming 10 20 even 30 years but if you set up the right recycling systems we can keep a lot of these not 100 i know but we can keep a lot of these metals into the system so by mining once these metals we can keep them very long time and so they are not just consumed once but they are consumed for for a very long lifetime and that's that's the main difference i think between yeah these these metals that are no mines and the fossil fuels so yeah i really think in that sense we have to nuance that story yeah but of course people are only looking at the first years yes and even in our simulations we even see that if we want to take off electrical vehicle production to take off that at a high speed as the commission wants that it will be even a peak in greenhouse gas emissions of course since you have to produce them yeah but that's only a short peak of some years and we have to go through that if we want to accelerate this this transition yeah it seems like a weird trade-off to yeah to go uphill in order to yeah and also there is another small thing that we could discuss about which is efficiency gains as well with electrification with electrical mobility and many of these the the efficiency is much much higher than their counterpart their fossil fuel counterpart no yeah they are only a side remark with that so the weight of cars is also a bit increasing with these batteries and and and so forth but again there are more materials innovations and the weight is even more increasing since we want more comfort at the size of the cars is also increasing and so forth but therefore I'm really bleeding that yeah car manufacturers are really working on light weighting of their cars going to body in white in composite materials for example doing eco design using additive manufacturing so that that certain components can be hollow and things like that so there still is an enormous range possible an improvement possible since it's it's still very inefficient to transport 80 kilograms of course for for a person with a car of 1200 kilograms or more and that that is the main inefficiency I would say you're right yeah yeah of course I mean this is for personal mobility right yeah that's for personal mobility okay we have some context now about clean energies that are metal hungry that we briefly discussed about the projections of metal perhaps we can we give some elements I see them there on the corner you have the IEA so the international energy agency projections and there are two scenarios over there there is the sustainable development scenario which is more of a plausible path to achieve the 1.5 degree and there is the stated policies scenario so these are quite different and they both say that we're going to require a different amount of metals for this transition can you tell us what these two graphs underline and perhaps what is you mentioned 60 percent that was mobility in this metal consumption of this transition right yes yes yes well for the stated policies that's the baseline that we used for that report and that's what's on the table today by governmental agencies and that's actually not enough to reach the net zero emission goal in 2050 so there you should look at the sustainable development scenario if you want to follow that scenario you have to accelerate you have to accelerate actually the transition so then you need on the short term you need more of these these metals but the general principle is the more urgent things become or the more you could also say the more impatient you are to install renewable energy, electrical, mobility and so forth the more of these metals you need the coming years and so in the projections we made we saw that for a bunch of metals such as lithium, nickel, derailleur, cobalt it will become difficult even in these stated policies scenario it will become difficult to to fill up the gap between these demands and the supply that there is today but if you want to go to sustainable development goal scenario that it even becomes yeah almost impossible to fill up that gap the coming 10 years that's important part the coming 10 years seven now yeah since afterwards in our projections we are quite optimistic afterwards new mines are opened recycling systems should be already in place for the lithium for example we are convinced that from the lithium in cars we can by 2040 we can recycle more than 70 percent even 77 77 percent so that feels in already a good part of the demand for new lithium on top of that in 20 30 years we can expect that we are shifting from a new demand for these metals for all these new products to a replacement demand for replacing end of life so all these things make and that we actually can be quite optimistic towards the the longer future 2040 2050 but the problem is now of course and again if we really want to go fast yeah we have to pay to pay a price for that and if you want to get to go fast we really have to do yeah all things together today we have to open your minds we have to have the good processing facilities we have to import a lot and have good contacts of course and we have to start recycling the recycling will not deliver a lot of these materials today but if you want them within 10-15 years we have to start today already and so all these things together we have to do that today and why not try to have some other circular economy strategies as well already today yeah such as more sharing you could also call light rating of cars strategies since if you have lighter cars you need lighter you only need lighter motors and and and so forth and so it also has an impact on the demand of the metals yeah so all these things together I have to start today we need that for accelerating this transition to two comments on this I think it's important to first of all when we see the the amount of metals they seem quite small so we talk about 45 or 75 megatons so they seem relatively small right but as you mentioned time is of essence right and over there there is sorry there is a small parenthesis of methodological jargon let's say so we use a lot the terms of stocks and flows right so in the planet there might be enough materials as you say to mine them on the long run so we have enough stock but the flow is the problem we cannot extract as fast in one year I don't know how much it is three 35 times more lithium right I mean from one from one day to another we need the infrastructure in order to build an infrastructure it takes you years and years and years so there is this stock flow problem and the second stock flow problem is as you mentioned if we build electric vehicles or if we make a photovoltaic panels etc etc we're gonna build a stock from which we can recycle yeah but today there is in some cases not enough stock in order to recycle so there is this there is not enough outflow exactly so there I think it's quite important to to to remind these two elements there is stock in both cases so in terms of anthropogenic stock but also geogenic stock yeah but it's the speeds that is going to be a difficult part no exactly and for the for the geological stock the the lithosphere stock let's call it for most metals there is enough but indeed time is is important since yeah opening mines yeah that's an enormous investment in money but also in in time in labor that's not that easy we also have to realize and that's maybe another point of course that new mines often are in more ecological vulnerable regions if you look at stocks for rare earths for example in europe yeah more in the northern regions or in in greenland even if you look to what is happening today with the nickel so I said already that Indonesia is becoming bigger and bigger a supplier of nickel yeah but the conditions are not that ideal deforestation etc etc right yeah deforestation there is a lot of of these mines near the oceans and polluted water is also dumped in the oceans and things like that so there are problems with regard to the environmental side as well with that and so yeah also there it might be good to to to be not too impatient so that that's that's good environmental measures can be installed and and are also checked and imposed so when I said you have to be to make good friends to import metals can also be critical on that of course it should be done in a environmentally friendly way and to european standards as well it's a difficult compromise of course you know I mean it's very difficult yeah and also how much are we taking so you know in in in mines the the the the the more you start by extracting one material the more the higher concentration there is and the you know the further you get so the concentration goes down right right now we are at less than 1% for copper or 0.5 or what is it 0.3 yeah so it also means that if europe gets all the first stuff of dysprosium and you know scandium tellurium and all of that then the second half of the the planet that will start their decarbonization might get less concentration as well so there is also an equity element you know it's a it's not a it's not as easy as just stocks and flows there as you mentioned geopolitics environmental elements social elements labor elements all of these elements that are and economic elements as well as since we today we are also discussing uh these seabats mining but if you look at at yeah the places where they are finding the catering kipperton um yeah for example in in the uh pacific yeah that's 4 000 meters uh below the the the water surface so um yeah that's that's also technology that is that will cost something it's far away from processing uh facilities and so you need a lot of transport as well so that comes with the cost and and yeah if markets are or are stressed and and if the demand is too high of course people will will be willing to pay that there are even people thinking of going to esterates and and there are uh mine mine these metals but needless to say that that will cost even much more just a small parenthesis so about the the seabed uh because i'm not a big expert on on this um and i think it was a hot topic very recently as well you know there were some laws that were getting passed uh of course it's biodiversity in biodiversity terms and also in uh co2 emission terms it it's probably a disaster right but still i yeah i don't know in c2 terms uh since uh well it depends on what what what metal you want to extract as but it's quite concentrated in this nodule so that might be quite okay but biodiversity is is a real problem it's it's it's a very unknown uh area and and uh i understand it and i also uh convinced that we need much more research on what the the real impact is of of doing that kind of mining at the seafloor so we should be sure that that that the impact is is really minimal uh but of course it has to be researched i i think um yeah when we we try to do new things um we have to be cautious but we can also try to find out what's what really happens and something that that that can be done and is done today yeah and in terms of concentration in terms of quantities is there any i mean is it that intelligent to do so is there a strategical stake to to do so is it because of the speeds that you would do it what is the sorry this is really a basic question but i think a number of people are hearing about sea beds and as we're talking about our the demand of um of metals and we say that uh on the lithosphere there probably is enough not in the right time frame and all of this and all of that but uh so why why this new thing that's that's it's a short parenthesis well we're gonna close it but out of curiosity i'm not a specialist in in that neither um i think it could deliver let's say uh yeah some some 10 20 percent for example uh of of of the nickel supply maybe um that will impact the the the the price of the markets as well if the market is is if a new source is coming to the market of course the supply will increase and then the marketplace and and then the price will go down and uh for me the whole question is whether it's economically viable to do so and the companies are studying that so i don't know but that uh yeah it's it's it's a very complex problem since on the other hand we also have these these indonesian mines for for nickel which are having an impact on biodiversity as well and is that's what we want so but in principle i i think we can we could do without as well but of course yeah then we have to take all the disadvantages of of uh land surface mining as well yeah yeah yeah okay so we have an idea of you know this metal consumption that we're gonna need also um the stock flow problem the dynamics your report was also focused on europe and how these global scenarios would would be i mean how europe would be affected by these global scenarios and you also mentioned about opening new mines you mentioned about europe's autonomy or self uh self-sufficiency so how much today is europe satisfying its metals demand uh through local mining uh approximately i mean i think i see here in some places almost zero and also in by 2030 because i see here the figure these by charts is there something feasible and of course you put a lot of asterisk meaning that there is a lot of uncertain project there are model projects etc etc but what would be the best scenario best case scenario in terms of self-sufficiency in europe oh my god that's a difficult question yes it's a loaded question yeah it's a loaded question as well since opening new mines there are it's not easy in europe you have to you have to get the permits and you have the public opinion that is not not not not uh happy with that neither so um but it and it also depends on on on on the metals as i said before we have the the commodities such as as nickel which we i think mining in europe delivers some 16 percent uh of the nickel to to the european market which is not a lot and the the point is that we don't think that it increase can increase a lot neither and so that's by 2030 or also 2050 by 23rd yeah 30 let's say even 2050 and i don't see that's happening in in in europe while for lithium and where it's the the yeah the situation might be different for all clarity for lithium it's zero percent today but um yeah there are projects announced let's see whether they will happen or not uh in in finland and in uh in france and in portugal yeah um it could deliver some part of it yeah but again uh that will take time five ten even more years uh and i would i i would stress the the the possibility to recycle even more than that since the time frame is maybe a bit longer even for recycling but the capacity will be larger and so capacity to recycle lithium could be much more and then what we can get out of of of the mines it's important to to have some mines to have some self-sufficiency as as we call it but it will never be be a hundred percent that we are an open economy and a global economy as well so i don't think that this is a good a good goal to to be 100 in the independent neither but to have some some internal uh supply from resources within europe yeah would be good also to to have something uh and to to to have some impact on the markets yeah in case of a shock as well etc etc yeah and so we you talked about recycling uh what about recycling is is there already any plants uh for these elements are going to increase so much uh traditionally of course there is there are a lot of recycling plants and in belgium i mean when we talk about steel steel must be recycled at the 70 to 90 percent right i mean it's a it's a huge amount some other metals as well but these new metals these exotic metals these metals that are the most needed are the ones of course that they are not recycled right yeah that's that's correct and that's that's a pity one of the reasons is that the we talked about stocks and flows that these flows that are coming out of the the waste streams in the end of life of all these products is still limited so if there is recycling for example recycling of pv panels it's mainly based on production waste but there are possibilities it's possible to to recycle a little it can be improved still be improved of course but it's possible but it's uh today yeah the the the the volumes are not that large it's economically not that interesting yet to do it uh but that that that will come i'm i'm quite sure of that um same holds for for the rare earth metals uh uh they are in cars for example they are mainly used for the permanent magnets in electric motors yeah we we have done already several projects to um to search for the right method and you you could extract these metals from these rare earths again that's quite complex that comes also with a an environmental footprint uh since it's it's a complex uh flow sheet that you need for that but you could also recycle the alloy for the uh for the permanent magnets and yeah recycle it as such but then you need a separate recycling system only for permanent magnets which is not unthinkable since you have the permanent magnets of vehicles but you also have the permanent magnets of offshore uh windmills for example also are even larger there so that that that could be done and i i also think that in the circuit economy we we have to yeah try to downsize a bit the yeah the recycling system i i i want to say that we should be able to cope with smaller streams that are more specifically for one application one alloy recovered over there of course on the next part we're gonna discuss more broadly about circular economy and also about how perhaps the best so today globally circular economy rates are going down just because we put more stuff in the machine right there is more extraction and therefore it dilutes or minimizes the the impact of circular economy so as you mentioned this is key to to minimize the flows or to manage them efficiently because right now we we don't manage them just before we go to some conclusions are these recycling plants we talked about europe but also do do they exist internationally are they plants is this kind of the the right push or they all await for some stock in order for economically to be viable or a number of lithium recycling plants exist or a number of uh but let's be honest europe is always a bit advanced more advanced in these things where it comes to to recycling although in japan is also very active i'm not that aware that that there are a lot of initiatives but i think in the current context of of a world where blocks want to be become more autonomous and and that's supply risks are everywhere experienced yeah i think that that's that's a lot of other countries are looking at recycling issue as well but i do believe that in europe we really are in the forefront of it well hopefully this is also going to stimulate a number of uh i mean we're in the materials center as well so you have your your hands on it right i mean you're in the pulse of things and i think this will be essential uh for for the future i'll try to conclude with some of the elements we we we said and we need to keep in mind based on the report and also considering the future of mobility sector especially on resource use then we're gonna talk about the circular economy as well so there are three elements that i've noted down here sufficiency so we need to reduce our demand somehow um either a smaller cars a smaller smaller amount of kilometers we need to to drive etc etc so how to reduce our demand of mobility material efficiency of course by uh burning fossil fuels we're going to replace it with metals that these are going to last a lifetime and so in that sense there is some efficiency gain and also some efficiency gain in terms of an electric car that consume less than a conventional car and then circular economy so we haven't mentioned too much but there is a co2 footprint of secondary versus primary supply of of metals and i think this is very important to to underline and finally the relocalization we mentioned can we relocalize some mines some processing or some recycling and this will also reduce enlarge the co2 footprint can can we perhaps underline some of these elements we we never mentioned the co2 footprint for instance of secondary versus primary yeah sure that that that's correct um so for some metals that the co2 footprint of the recycles of the recycling is is much lower it it even can be a factor 10 for example um that's true although i i also have to say for some other elements you need complex uh flow sheets to to recycle and then you have almost the same processing needed as for the virgin materials but another aspect is if we if we look at a co2 footprint is that um european standards are very strict and that's a good thing for all clarity um and that also means that if you look if you compare production of some of these metals nickel for example in europe compared to in indonesia or other place china yeah that there is also a clear difference so that's another reason to relocate or at least to to be in favor of having or keeping metallurgy in europe um i know nobody wants that in the backyard of course yeah but actually yeah the footprint is smaller than if if it is just uh in in all in other continents so that's another another point related to to the co2 emissions which you can mention a lot of other things as well a water stress and and human rights and and and they all have they all differ from country to country uh there are a lot of of problems with that as well and we mentioned kong for the cobalt uh extraction for example that makes this story very very complex of course yeah i i try to to keep it here to the resource flows and then the supply and the demand but in in our report we we also have added some considerations about these environmental and social aspects as well there is a last part i generally ask if you have anything that you would like us to to share with us so like a book or a movie or something that talks about let's say metals the future of metals metals and the mobility sector is there something that you have read listened watched that you think might be important for others to to have a look in order to continue you know our discussion yeah well i'm not prepared for that i know i know i know that's always the question oh i wish i was ever prepared a bit for this um when it comes to supply chain of products and product families um there is a very nice report published by the jrc in ispra last spring that's that's a nice one that you can consult of course and if it comes to to mining in europe for example i can recommend the videos of my colleague peter tom jones he has made some very nice videos and a report on on that yeah well fantastic many thanks carol for this discussion thanks all as well for listening and watching until the end so please make sure to watch as well the second episode that will focus on the circular economy and the mobility sector that will come out tomorrow on the urban mobility explain youtube channel many thanks carol and many thanks to all of you as well you're welcome


hashtag ways where we talk about topics and the news as it affects us all. I am Chinelo and I am joined by our amazing co-anchors tonight. Like who I'll say our Monday tonic, but no one has joined us today. Hi Joela, how are you doing? How has your week started off? I want to just give it thumbs up. I want to see progress of my week. I have so much to deliver on God help me. I'm very positive. Okay, we needed that bit of positivity because I mean I was having a conversation with Joela earlier in the makeup room and we're just talking about how everything just seems like, but yeah, we move. Okay, so to further our conversation on good governance and in partnership with Enough is Enough, we present to you drumroll the office of the citizen chatbot. I think this is a very interesting development. So apparently there's now a WhatsApp chatbot provided by the office of the citizen from Enough is Enough where you can actually send a message, you send a message or say hi to a particular number. I'm going to call out the number and then you would get feedback based off of whatever it is you're looking for. So the number to reach out to is<PHONE_NUMBER>700681. Okay, and to go further with that, so the chat box provides you the opportunity to engage and the first thing you need to do is just to say hi. So there's almost like an AI, someone just waiting to walk you through the whole process. You'll probably register, put your name, it gives you options on what you may want to learn about maybe about elected public servants, BBC information against the next election cycle, debates on town halls. So more like there's actually now no excuse to say that you do not know what is going on. Now it also goes further to say that it allows you the opportunity to press maybe one. So for example, if you press one, it gives you the names of all elected public servants and any other appointments that may, any other positions that may be that are not elected positions, it also gives you all that details. So you know that these are appointed and then these are elected and it also gives you the opportunity to lend your voice to whatever civil action is ongoing.  Yeah, absolutely. And I love it because it's got a lot of information and it's helping citizens to become aware and to be responsible for the people they elect, the people that are there, put them on the toes, keep them accountable to what they said they're supposed to do. So take for example, when you, the numbers to like chat with, so in case you put in three, for example, you're going to have, when you select three, you're going to have options drop for you. So you can get information as much as like your elected, yeah, like Jola said, your elected public servants and the officers, what they're supposed to do. So now when you're asking questions, you know, you send messages to yourself, you said you are in charge of this area, this local government, but I can see that maybe the gutters are not working, the drainage is bad, is what are you doing about that. So somehow you're keeping them informed. And there's also that aspect in the main menu where it says RSVP.  And enough is enough believes in the intrinsic value of debates as a mechanism to deepen democratic ideas. And they have hosted or co-hosted a lot of debates that continue to keep people in the know. I think this is really, really taking the ball by the horn. It's no longer you waiting for opportunities where, oh, okay, they have failed us again. You are now being proactive. And they have taken that step to bring it even closer to the citizens having that awareness that you can, you have the responsibility to make the government work for you. So I think it's a really amazing one. All the information is there. You can also know who is contesting at any particular time, go read up their profile, ask them questions, if there are debates that come up, and then you're able to engage them constructively.  It's no longer business as usual, where you just come and you just bamboozle the people who say one thing or the other.  So again, the number to reach out to is plus 2341-7006381. Plus 2341-7006381. Remember, all you just need to do is to send hi on WhatsApp and then you follow the prompts from there. So here's what we found as today's quotes. Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed people can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has, and this is by Margaret's, which is very true actually.  You don't need, you don't need a crowd. See three of us sitting here on the table right now, we can take certain decisions and by the time we bring in other people, it's just going to spiral and then scare our kids. We all know the popular saying that the youth are the leaders of tomorrow. However, leadership and good governance comes with preparedness. So today we're discussing good governance and the responsibilities of the youth, but first let's take a break to see what we found in the news. You are still watching Waze. World Hemophilia Day is celebrated every year on April 17th to honor the birth anniversary of Frank Snabel, who established the World Federation of Hemophilia. The purpose of this day is to raise awareness and provide information about hemophilia and other bleeding disorders. Hemophilia is a rare medical condition where the blood fails to clot correctly due to the lack of specific clotting factors. This leads to prolonged bleeding, which can be hazardous and life-threatening in some situations. Her World Hemophilia, I mean this reminds me of how I actually lost a friend of mine. She had a blood clotting problem and that was how we actually lost her. And I don't know, well according to what we heard after she passed, it was said that there was some test that was supposed to be carried out before the surgery was performed on hand and they didn't carry out the proper test. So negligent? On the part of the medical practitioner. I think it's a good one again, bringing awareness. There's so much information that we don't have at the tip of our fingers. These days when they're celebrated, it just brings you remembering the fact that your friend now you're a little bit more informed and it just helps people to be more aware and to take care of themselves more, especially days when it's medically inclined, information. Then you know that, oh there are certain things because I'm sure there are things that cause the blood clots and maybe hemorrhage. So things that people can look out for. So if they see the signs, they might be in a better position to advise and say, you know what, maybe you should see a doctor or things like that. Okay, Jala, what did you find in the news today? Okay, so Malaya wins Kogi PDP governorship ticket trust. So I mean former senator representing Kogi US Dino Malaya has emerged as governorship candidate for the People's Democratic Party, set for November 11 governorship election in the state. He polled 313 votes to defeat his closest rival, Jabiru Usman, who polled 127 votes. Interesting. Very interesting. I think the drama between himself and yesterday's BQ and every time I sit I'm just like, there is something else. So I mean congratulations to him. We're to the 11th of November and they will know the truth of it. Absolutely. Noma, what did you find for us in the news? Okay, well I unfortunately am going to be a bearer of good news or is it bad news actually because Nigeria records 1,336 cholera cases and 79 people have died from cholera. So the story goes that the Nigerian Center for Disease Control has announced the total of 1,336 suspected cases of cholera, including 79 deaths so far in 2023. And that's a little bit alarming because this is something that it's not paid attention to at all. You mean if it was like Ebola or like COVID, everybody would be on the boat. This is silently killing people and it's seasonal for some reason during the rainy season and it's just due to poor sanitation. These bacteria only breeds around when there's of course pools of water here and there. So it's really sad because the report revealed that 12 states across 43 local government areas have reported cases and the case fatality ratio of 5.9 percent. And the states that have been affected are Abia, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Cross River, Eboi, Kano, Katsuna, Niger, Ondo, Oshun, Sokoto and Zanfarah States. It's really alarming. I think that we really need to pay attention to it. It's not something that people really look into but I think it's something that we need to, I think sanitation. It's important that we do something at the government level, at the community level, at individual level. People need to upgrade in the area of hygiene so that we can tackle this once and for all because it's something that if we really deal with it, it can go away forever. Of course. Of course. I was going to say that the cholera isn't something that you know stays, if we actually tackle it to fizzle out at some point. Okay. So from my end, Ainek Baz Adamawa, REC from office. I saw this one and I'll be okay. The Independent National Electoral Commission has directed that the Adamawa State Resident Electoral Commissioner, Houdu Aris, to stay away from the state's office. The directive was contained in a memo signed by the Secretary to the Commission and it was sent to him today. He read, I hear by conveying the Commission's decision that you, Resident Electoral Commissioner, Adamawa State, should stay away from the Commission's office in Adamawa State immediately until further notice and he will say that he will serve this memo because he declared the candidates of the All Progressive Congress Aisha Dahir, popular known as Binani, as the winner of Saturday polls in the states even before the conclusion of the process. So that's why he has their hope in mind. But that's a good step in the right direction. Yeah, actually, since I'm happy that, I mean, they took this memo. I just wish that Ainek would work when they are supposed to work. But let's not start that conversation. Okay, so we'll take a break and then when we come back, we'll be discussing that conversation for tonight. See you after the break.


Hello and welcome back here to the channel I'm evil rabbit joined by that disco Supra of adi his DMVC Supra And if you notice the f4 has a bit of a poke now in the front So been working with adi today to dial in physics get the inertia settings physics for Suspension everything to be correct for the car So we're gonna be running some testing gonna be rocking here at OSW We might be switching up to another track But you guys follow me and also should be knowledge from the description box below Because testing is going to be happening From now until who knows when gonna be changing up some cars as well But we're gonna be running testing on this to try to see if we need to add some Mechanical grip to this car. So make sure you follow me on social media all which found in the description box below Let's get to it. Okay, adi. Let's do this Since your car is so much faster than mine this will determine if I need to add more Grip to this car or not. Okay, so have a drip of the day. Oh, that's fine So I kept with you on the bank. I kind of flubbed in the I stayed in your door a little bit too much of the power alley Um, oh, and I kind of found myself up on transition. So but it seems like it's okay But I can always add a little bit more camber if I need to let's see Let's see if it needs me Am I running away from you after the hit I kind of bubbled a little bit. I was like, there's no way I'm pulling from you I can't make more mistakes You can't tires you can't make mistakes now because my other car was slower and you could catch back up now If you make a mistake, it's like Bye Yeah, yeah, can I take back physics? No, you can't take the physics back This is also on a base tune so we I haven't fully got into suspension Oh, that's a suspension drop into tiling and super grip for specific tracks. It's just kind of just a basic My car didn't want to go to gear. I was at the right gear. You're not leaving me actually And I was half throttle through that inner bank And I stayed like the same positioning about a car length back. I Went I went in I can't see what gear I'm in. So I was Went into the bank and I heard too much rev and I'm like, oh, I'm in third So I had to like get it into my gear decided it wanted to not go into force Now we're in force You know the bank a little early there Handles the bumps very well though. Oh, man. We're up. We're up here I Get new tires we're gonna do that again Yeah, it was the bumps very well with the Extended suspension travel and for those who are wondering why the front of the car has so much poke We added a bit of spacers in the front so that we can Get some physical grip in the front of the car rather than You know trying to mess too too much with You know Suspension settings in a sense we can get a good basic grip level on a basic setting Using all of that 68 degrees of angle lock. I Literally hit off bump stop going into that inner bank. I'm like, oh, that's that's but the car held it It didn't didn't and I was flat foot. So it didn't bind. I was flat foot It didn't actually get too, you know wonky. So There's so much faster than it was before.  We'll take a look at that We're probably gonna get one or two more runs here Then we're gonna change tracks. I want to do another one-in-one and then we'll switch up and we'll go do always or Erwin now There's another high grip or we can go to another track. We can do We can do a yeah, we can do burganiki Riga, baby. You do a misano Miss on a world. I Don't think I know miss on a world It's a very flat track very fast I Currently my favorite trick. Oh man. I like it in the crease. Hi Jesus I'm noticing. I'm tearing through tires though with this car.  This motor you're gonna have It's it's bad. I mean, it's good for good, but bad good, but bad you're getting bullied now So we're here at Misano world circuit and This gear pull probably down this stretch. We are going to be with some high-speed stuff I'm gonna try not to bully Andy as much as possible Give a little big gap since I'm not really too familiar with this track really caught up you really fast. I get down Okay, so I gotta go fit the force I Go fifth and then force at that front clip. All right Got it. Let's see what happens. We'll send pretty decent run Yes, I will take that. That's actually pretty solid run. I Will take that run any day. I Don't think my gear ratio is perfectly correct for this car because I feel like I'm still losing a little bit on this first turn Yeah, like five three probably where I had defaulted it. Yes. Oh I just didn't open you. Oh wheel-to-wheel to know for content. I Mean I got the post like the RTR, right? You didn't climb up on me though. Oh, I didn't I mean we could make that happen No, I kind of lost it to there, but I was uh, I was in your pocket on that first turn You know for for never running this track except for like four times Not this car is hmm Are something else man. Addie doing great work of physics. Oh Not second. Oh Jesus We just we just popped it I Went to go from fifth to fourth, but my shifter said no you're going in a second. I Think we may have to switch this back into sequential Yep, I'm definitely in love with this car right now So when you guys saw me driving it in yesterday's video that was And not the right fit that was like basic testing physics. This car is now on full physics And it's a whole nother monster. Oh, we wide oh Man well, we were wide there. Let's try that again So if you guys like this any games I want to keep seeing more Tested tune and maybe how the physics got done. Let me know down in the comment section down below I'm sure Addie wouldn't mind go through a little bit of a physics work on this car or a new bill or a new bill Is I would don't really want to give out all my secrets with this car for the new build that could work So that's gonna do it here for this episode here on a set of course So more testing in the M4 if you guys like the poke in the front. Let me know because it's definitely a very Different style and I like the aggressive poke. So make sure you follow me on social media all the transcription box below As always, thank you for coming back and watching another episode. I'll be a rabbit. I'll see you guys on the track


It's a changing of the guard at Pressensburg High School's football program for the first time in over 20 years. John DeRosso won't be running the sideline. Brandon Brewer comes from Powell County, as he is looking to keep the tradition going in black cat country. Pressensburg, although coming off a seven-win season, still captured another district championship. However, there will be a challenge in 2018, as Lesley County and Shelby Valley are expected to vie for a district championship. You know, I've been up here since we started summer practice. Transition is going great. You know, just got a lot of help. People point me in the right direction up here. It's a good feeling to have it be a program where people want to win and expect to win. It's a program where the kids know how to work hard and the kids understand, you know, the meaning of competition. And so, you know, that's obviously made the transition much easier. So, you know, in terms of pressure to, you know, for winning, yeah, obviously there is pressure to win, but we also have a, you know, a young football team. Things have gone pretty good so far. I mean, been out here working from six to nine every night. It's different from going from John DeRossa to Coach Brewer over there. I mean, big changes from going from learning an offense since I've known since eighth grade to my senior year, learning a different one. It's been tough, but Coach Brewer is a great guy, great coach, and looking forward to what he's going to do this season. And then improved a lot this year. We were hoping to do real good, especially with the help of Coach Brewer. He's a real good coach. He helps a lot. He showed me a lot of new things, and I look forward to this year with him. Pressesburg is currently in a transition period. For the black cast to be successful this year, Pressesburg will need their senior leaders to step up.  You come to practice, be excited to practice. You celebrate with your teammates, tell them good job, and let them see you working hard. You can be a leader by doing those few things right there. Be successful. We just need to come together as a team. Just develop a brotherhood and just come together. Kids are very coachable, and like I said earlier, it's a learning curve. And each week, the learning curve is getting a little bit straighter each week. They're working extremely hard, and there's a lot we're putting in on them, and a lot we're throwing at them, but they're doing very well. Expectations. Expect to do a lot better than what we did last year. Come together. Like I said there, we're going to come together and have a great season. It's great. Great really is.  A lot of people come out, packed stands. We need everybody out this year. Just come out and watch us on Friday nights.


Okay, so now I have lots of people here. Hang on one second. So I had Wendy and I have Leah. So but I want to now move into the general discussion for this session on thank Melissa and Nancy for really thought provoking talks. But I want to back up to the people that were in queue. So Jose and then Peter and then Calum and then Wendy and then Leah. My question was related to one of the first slides of Melissa in which you show that change from 20% of explanation to 80% adding the animal models. Do you think that this is just redundancy within the human genome to cope with those changes or with those mutations? I do think so. I mean, when I include the GWAS data in that value it goes up to about 40% but then those are less causal mutations or rather association. So I think there's a variety of things. There's tolerance. There's which mutations do we actually have? So in the models there's often, there's a lot more full gene knockouts as opposed to single variation types of studies in the more historical data that's changing over time. But so I think, so there's a number of different reasons why that's the case with some of the studies that we heard about this morning. Obviously, we're gonna start closing that gap much sooner. So yeah, kind of spans the spectrum. Yeah, awesome talk Nancy. I just wanted to add that we did a pilot project in where we use text mining to get HPO features for common disease. And then we compared GWAS hits which are mainly upstream or downstream of genes with Mendelian diseases. And there's a massive overlap if you just say, can you find one HPO feature that's common to both? So that would also support what you're showing. I think within every sort of common disease consortia, there's an emerging observation that the Mendelian subtypes that there's often common variation affecting the regulation of those that you see that you can see associated at the GWAS level as you build out to larger and larger sample sizes. And we're definitely looking at those same kinds of things. But of course, when there are many phenotypes, they can be associated with multiple. Just really quickly, because it's related to both of those points. So the other thing that we didn't really talk about was the use of the Interactome data or pathway data. So to cross walk across those phenotypes, so if you see connections between those and we've tried, we've had some efforts to integrate those as well. Sorry. From Cal. So I was just gonna tie a couple of comments together. So for example, the Palmer hyperkeratosis is associated in syndromic disorders with a risk of sudden death. If you actually start to measure Palmer skin conductance in everybody with heart failure, it turns out you can actually identify a quantitative association with ventricular arrhythmias and baseline populations. So that sort of highlights how having quantitative rather than semi-subjective is actually quite important. But also that the semi-subjective can inform where we need to go for some of the proximate phenotypes. And I actually like Nancy's concept of axes. I think you can imagine that there are some very clear thematic axes that we've, if we were able to develop translatable phenotypes in that small space to start with, then you can imagine doing everything from the massively parallel mutagenesis all the way through to massively parallel clinical phenotyping with the same end phenotypes. And that's, I think something that might tie the whole thing together, or at least part of it together. Great. Wendy? So I'm following up on some comments and questions for Nancy's presentation. And I think before Howard mentioned it, I had the word Bonferroni in my mind. But I think he answered that great. I'm not one to question. But the zinc idea, the hypothesis, certainly ties in with a way to test this biological plausibility. Because obviously I think you have access to those patients. And to the extent that maybe some of those phenotypes are modifiable in adult age, you can sort of talk what, I think Callum was saying earlier, is you have a biomarker and then you have a treatment. And then you have etiology. So the skin conditions are the obvious place to look first because I think those probably will clear with zinc supplementation, if that is indeed the driving biology, probably the diarrhea, gastritis too. Now whether brains and adults will be as amenable to the therapies as brains and children were, it's hard to know. But I think clearing the skin is a really good first start now. Yeah. Nancy, do you see, because the G-Tex is done by RNA-Seq, are you seeing any missense mutations in those genes that are also associated with these phenotypes that could be less serious or maybe a little, like just the protein is just a little bit broken. Well, so one of the things that we're hypothesizing, so for some of the Mendelian genes, we see really strong additional phenotypes. And frankly, in some of the Mendelian disease genes where there are particularly common mutations and we wonder whether this is kind of an interaction between being a carrier and having reduced expression. So we'll try to get at that through sequencing. Because G-Tex is G-Tex and that's where we build the predictors, I mean, we don't have transcript levels in the patients and subjects, but yeah, you can sometimes pick up the, and we've got whole genome sequencing. I mean, we'll know who's carrying mutations in any of these genes also. So Nancy, I had a question. So your presentation was kind of like a Julia Child show, right? You gave us this beautiful end product and demonstrated how to use it, but I'm wondering about how you put the ingredients together so that the fundamentals of the data integration, how easy was it for you to pull together the different kinds of information you needed to build the resource? What were the challenges that you faced? We'll be building it for a while. So I mean, BioView exists and the, you know, Vanderbilt has a 41 member Department of Biomedical Informatics. So the phenome data has been through a lot of layers, even just in the synthetic derivative. And the opportunity to, you know, we can go across these FIWAS codes and for any of those we can dive deeper with 95% sensitivity and specificity diagnosis. If we wanna be sure that this is dilated cardiomyopathy or primary pulmonary hypertension showing the highly significant associations and what was the particular acute kidney failure associated with the zinc transporter, those kinds of things, you know, we can work with 41 member Department of Biomedical Informatics to get highly specific diagnostic algorithm codes together. But so there was, so a lot of the infrastructure was there. The rest of it, you know, really comes through GTechs. We've been working in GTechs for a long time to develop methods to integrate data from GTechs with genome variation to give people better tools for making discovery. And this is what, you know, sort of just the latest example. But I think applying it in BioView where you've got the whole phenome is a really special and attractive application. I think the sad thing about that is not everybody has a 41 member Biomedical Informatics department to work with. So I know, right. So, you know, so part of it is getting to, what are the lessons learned that could stimulate activity initiatives across the community and make doing what you're doing easier? Kind of like, so, you know, Melissa was talking about standards for encoding and exchanging data, the need to develop that. Do you have any insights into those kinds of recommendations for how to make what you're doing easier for the broader community? I think one of the things that we really need to work on and, you know, maybe with, for example, Melissa's group is the ways that physicians can describe the phenotypes they know about with patients so that it's easier to see, you know, what possible genes come up in the context of, you know, first figuring out what the genes might be. And, but even those, you know, getting the phenome in is a challenge and that's been something that's been interesting to look at from the perspective of the Undiagnosed Diseases Network and all the effort that goes into even figuring out what patients should come into those programs who can't be just diagnosed based on, you know, what they have. And enriching the ability of clinicians to see potential other phenotypes that might associate with known Mendelian diseases, I think, is key. But getting that information readily available in forms the physicians can use, this is gonna be a challenge. But I think there's some things we can try to do that in that direction. Melissa, and then Mike, and then Cecilia, and then, so just a couple words on that. So one thing is that, you know, in terms of crossing that translational divide between the basic science researcher and the clinician, you know, so that we and others have tools to try to help do that, they're imperfect. We definitely need more user interaction and development on those things. But I think, you know, more than that is tools to understand the fact that we are simply never gonna record phenotype data in the clinic at the same degree or in the same ways as we do in the model organisms. And that's where the ontologies can really help with visualization tools. It can help see that this patient is similar to this worm because, you know, clinically, if you're reading PubMed, it's really hard to look for those similar phenotypes. But if we have better visualization tools to help, you know, immediately show, yeah, that actually is kind of similar. Then that's another way that we can do things. And then the second point is that, you know, many of the people that work in our kind of space, the 41 bioinformaticists in your department, you know, we're often at a last, a lack of access to patient data, to sample data, to try the algorithms and try the tools and clinicians who are willing to try those things.  But then the next person goes and builds their own ones that in a slightly different way and has to rebuild that road every time. So how do we better share the process of making these connections, not just the fact that we have the data? Great, Mike? One of the things that I heard from Nancy that intrigued me is this idea that protein coding and delians may also be interacting with regulatory variants for the same gene. We've been talking about second site mutations or modifier mutations or variable penetrants at this meeting and it comes and goes. And that just reminds me of the initial characterization of retroviral oncogenes where initially people looked for the protein coding variants, then found some of them were regulatory only and then, surprise, surprise, found out for some both regulation and the protein coding mattered. Do you have a sense now of how common those three cases are? So we have to really look across all tissues. I think some of the genes that have low coefficient of variation where we don't tolerate a lot of variability in its expression. Also, even if it's highly heritable, we may not get outside the range very much. And so for a subset of genes, we actually see no phenotypes associated with reduced expression of the gene. It just may not be tolerated. But for those genes, there are some bad things if you have too much. And I think that was one of the, to me, a little bit surprising observations. When we pull together the genes that look like Mendelian genes in weighting, there's a couple of dozen of them that are already Mendelian genes with really rare recessive phenotypes associated so with loss of function, but increased expression of those same genes is associated with congenital anomalies, intellectual disability, and other bad things. And so gain of function mutations, or for example, structural variants that might take out regulatory elements for those genes that would lead to their up regulation will look like a Mendelian disease for sure. Cecilia, name Barbara. I wanted to ask Nancy, going back to the comment you had about specificity and sensitivity. And also, I guess Howard had a question or comment earlier with regard to how specific is the diagnosis or how accurate. So I'm wondering whether, I think the tool you presented or the integration of all this data is really powerful. Is there any way to show what the specificity sensitivity is moving forward so that one has an idea, what's the overall accuracy with the approach? Well, so, okay. So I presented two genes that have very dramatic associations. I could have presented thousands of genes that had no associations. So I don't want you to get the idea that I got a lot of genes at 10 to the minus 19. I don't have a lot of genes at 10 to the minus 19. And yet, unquestionably, the Mendelian genes do attract a lot more phenome. Much of the phenome they attract is the part of the phenome we already know should be attracted. But there's some new phenome also. Some of it does come in in these axes. So I think the axis that the zinc transporter is on, this wound healing and native immunity, it involves kidney failure, it involves some of the primary pulmonary hypertension. These are things I've seen with a number of genes that show associations not as dramatic as what we just saw, but significant, you know, 10 to the minus eight, 10 to the minus nine. And so this notion that, you know, we sit on these planes and rock back and forth, depending on the environmental exposures and the whole set of genes that we have, I think is real and that there's a lot we can do there. With respect to, yeah, we're looking at high throughput zebrafish, cell-based assays, and mouse studies with a lot of the novel findings.  When I see the same phenotypes associated with the Mendelian genes for reduced expression as with the disease, I think the model's complete. And I'm looking at the novel associations for validations and we'll have some quantitative description of how many of the novel genes with associations that we put through this we can validate. But again, you know, with strict Bonferoni correction, a lot of these will definitely meet that criteria and we don't have that many that are so dramatic. So we'll go to Barbara and then Bruce and then we actually have to wrap it up because we have Bob online for the next talk. I'll be quick. So Carol, you mentioned, you know, how applicable is this to people who maybe don't have access to a bio view and there's something that Nancy didn't talk about really with relation to the imputed gene expression and that's that if you have whole genome sequencing or if you have genotypes and cohorts, you can impute the expression in many tissues that have been surveyed by GTEX and so you could imagine in a case control study you can impute cases and controls, find out which genes are genetically predicted to be differentially expressed and learn potentially about causal mechanisms for individuals you don't have the transcriptome data for and that wouldn't be affected by their other phenotypes and those models exist, those models exist, you can go online and that's all publicly available. All publicly available. Bruce? Yeah, so there's been a lot of discussion actually just in the last few minutes and for that matter even in the last day or so about all the things we wish clinicians would provide in terms of phenotypic data but they don't and it just strikes me maybe speaking in a way on behalf of the medical genetics community which could be the source of a lot of this, there's a small handful, probably many of whom are in this room who think in these terms and then a very large number where that's completely foreign territory to them but I think you would find actually that there's a high level of interest and willingness to participate and I guess I would just propose somehow that we come up with a way to reach out to that larger community and try to engage them and I think you would find a lot of willingness, there's not that people don't want to put phenotypic information in and I would even argue actually some of the discussions about IRB or other constraints are somewhat overstated actually I think. A lot of the patients I deal with would love for us to share their information in the hopes of coming up with better data but my point is that I think there is a large small army actually is probably not large but at least there's a small army of people who would be willing to participate if we could reach out in a way that would break what I think is a bit of a tower of babble of all the various databases that we've been talking about. Well and maybe I could just comment in response to that Bruce, hoping that you and others, Gail and Mark and Mike and those who are heavily tied into the ACMG community will stay if you can through the discussion in terms of next steps because one of the things we see as really useful would be going back to the ACMG and really trying to make these links in ways that make sense to the average clinical geneticists not those of you at one end of the spectrum that are here with us. I just wanted to make a sort of an observation of a paradox and the people sitting around the room who come from the Model Organisms Community will know that there's been a lot of concern lately about how Model Organisms are gonna be funded going forward, Eric and other NHGRI folks this is for you as well. So I think today we've seen a really great demonstration of the value of the data that's collected by those databases. So I would just urge that we make sure that we don't break something that's working really well going forward. Yeah I wanted to add on to what Bruce has said. I mean one of the issues with any requests from clinical data that we've heard several times already is what's the value for the additional work that I'm going to do. Now the reality is that in the context of ordering genetic tests, many of the companies are now requesting relatively sophisticated phenotypic information to go with the test. And we also have heard some presentations about how through the standardized ontologies in that there are actually ways using check boxes that you can kind of fill in what's present and what's not present. But we don't have across all those things as an integration and so you could imagine, I could imagine, a scenario where if I were in the clinic and I had a patient and I said, gosh if I fill out this form, it's gonna go to the laboratory with any testing that I order. It's going to allow me to immediately pull up relevant information from all of these resources and it would facilitate bi-directional communication and could in fact under appropriate permissions be deposited in something like a monarch or a ClinGen as patient level data. If you could do all of that with filling out one form, well now you've really got something because I get something from doing it because it makes my life easier. I'm not having to go and do individual searches of all the resources and the value to the community is evident. So that again is another sophisticated informatics solution and interoperability problem. But if we don't get the value proposition right, other than the few altruists which don't represent even a small army, you know, we're not gonna make much progress. All right, Wendy was giving. I'll be really quick because I'm just building on what Bruce said and what Mark said and I realized we're drinking the same Kool-Aid for a long time but just to build, this really is about a value proposition and I think all the tools are there and looking in part of the value proposition is getting accreditation, of course, and looking at Mike. But I think that it can be even better than that because it kind of comes down to who pays for these genetic tests really? And can you even order it? Which is kind of a big no in many circumstances. So it means that we have to partner with the payers and I think we have to go beyond CMS to do that but there is increasing interest in the payers participating and FDA participating in this whole endeavor which I think we can leverage. Now it's not too much, I think, to ask a clinician who is ordering a genetic test to enter in one, two, three, four phenotypes that become part of this collection and then the benefit for the payers is, number one, you have a narrower gene list as long as you're not in the discovery phase, you're talking about genes with known phenotypes and then you can get that to be iterative once you have a result back and you have a variant that pathogenic, VUS, but you can recategorize it. So I'm just saying to extend this discussion to really the whole kind of ecosystem of people that need to help us to build it. So this is really awesome, I hate to do this. We do have a discussion, we have a panel, so those of you who didn't get to comment right now hold the thoughts, bring them back up when we have the panel discussion, we have plenty of time then to continue this because I think this is really important trend of discussion. But now I really wanna turn this over to Bob Nussbaum who's online and is not a hologram, unfortunately. And he's going to give a talk which the title has changed to something very interesting just before lunch. And I might just mention if Melissa got the Hero Award, Bob gets the second Hero Award for doing this remotely for us and while it may be even more tempting to scan through your email and that because he's not here looking at us, he's gonna give us a hint as to where he's buried a million dollars and it'll be in his slides, so you wanna look carefully at this. Bob, go ahead. It is floorboards, they gotta flood it. Yeah, exactly.


Cheers to you my friend. We somehow did it all four legs of our Thursday night football. No sweat same game parlay hit We did it. I was so excited. We got to keep this going. So let's go tomorrow night Thursday night football We've got two regulars two friends of our show Daniel Jones and Debo Samuel. They're going head-to-head. It's Niners It's Giants.  So let's keep the health keep this juju going What is your first leg of tomorrow's parlay? Yes? I'm gonna go with the Niners covering Minus three and a half They're gonna do it. They're on fire. They got a great defense good offense.  He's thrown and I just keep it going. He's consistent He's thrown for 200 or more and seven of his last eight starts Yes, that's definitely a good choice and then my second choice is gonna be a George Kittle Anytime touchdown, I mean he had 12 touchdowns last year He hasn't had a touchdown in the first game or the second game of the season this year So he's due to have a touchdown this Thursday night. Okay, I asked Debo about him yesterday And I said everybody's had a big game.  Where's the George Kittle game? He torches Thursday night football some dudes just like those short weeks and Kittle is one of them Okay, and then last leg. I'm gonna go with the aforementioned Wonderboy CMC Christian McCaffrey 40 plus rushing yards if that sounds like easy easy. He's the NFL Yeah, I know don't say that he's the NFL's leading rusher right now. He's averaging 134 yards per game on the ground So that pushes us to by the way, this is awesome if it hits plus 400 Whoo, and that means it qualifies guys for the no sweat parlay, which is absolutely awesome So to recap we've got the Niners covering at minus three and a half brought 40 throwing for 200 plus yards George Kittle The score touchdown and CMC to have 40 plus rush yards odds guys of course subject to change over the next 24 hours or so But listen anybody can place a three leg same game parlay And this week's game between the Niners and the Giants and you get bonus bets back if you don't is that Doesn't hit it's great. No sweat roll with the one that Gronkin I built for you, of course or go build your own and you can apply that no sweat Same game parlay over on fan duel America's number one sportsbook


to capture national government in order to bring about Islamic change, we have to work with communities and create change at the community level. So we come to part three of this talk, which is state level interventions, which is exactly contrary to what I have said, that we don't need to worry about the nation state. But as any part of any transitional strategy, because nation states play an important role today, we have to deal with them, we cannot ignore them and we cannot bypass them. But we have to recognize what these things are. These are creations of European politics and they are responsible for enormous amounts of bloodshed and violence. And over the Islamic world, nation states were explicitly created as a part of the divine and rule strategy. And there is some very important book by Vail and Locke, which should be read by everyone, the impossible state. He says basically the fundamental, the foundational basis of the nation state is contrary to the concept that contrary to Islam and cannot be reconciled. So the Islamic strategy that we want to capture state power to implement Islam is impossible to succeed because a state itself is in conflict with Islamic ideas. So nonetheless, as I said, we still have to deal with the state. So with the understanding that state is not a permanent solution, this is part of a transitional strategy, we have to deal with the state because they are so powerful, but hopefully we will evolve beyond that limitation. And states today are dividing the Muslim ummah and so they are very causing great harm to us. So with this warning, we go into study how the what happens at the state level. So again, we deal with economic myths. And one of the most popular is that export promotion is the path to development and growth. Also that the government must raise money by taxes and borrowing to finance expenditures. Banks do not create money. Inflation is due to many creation. All of these are totally false ideas. Four, the truth is that path to economic growth and development requires development of local productive capacities. And if you want to build an industry in Pakistan today, we have to protect it from foreign competition because it will naturally be weak and imperfect. And free trade, which is recommended by economists, benefits the strong economies and destroys the weak. So today, Pakistan is caught in a debt trap. We have exports of 60 billion and imports only of we have import 60 billion. So we need to borrow. And when we need to borrow, then we become enslaved by the lenders. Lenders are happy to lend even if they know this will never get repaid because they get control of our policies. And using this control, they can get enormous advantages, much more than the money that they lend us. And the money they lend is just paper. So it costs them nothing to lend any amount of money. So Jason Nicol has calculated that data was available for 2012 that about two trillion dollars was sent by poor borrowing countries to rich lending countries. And a large portion of this is in terms of interest rate. So this interest based system, financial system, is a tool for trapping the poor. So why are we in this debt trap? Well, basically it's due to economic theory. Pakistan was fine. The crisis, the crunch in BOP occurs in 2003. Up until then, we had high levels of production. But basically in 1995, Pakistan joined the World Trade Organization and started lowering the tariffs until they reached this critical point of 15%. And now they are around 8%. And when our tariffs are low, then the imports come in heavily because imports are cheap. And so there was a point at which we are importing oil seeds from Brazil. The Pakistan is an agricultural country. Why should we be importing oil seeds from Brazil? That's because our both our duties and our foreign exchange policy made the dollar cheap and the tariffs low. And so basically this destroyed local industry. And so it's useful to understand the history of free trade theory. It was invented by England, not by anybody else. After England acquired a 50 year lead over Europe via the industrial revolution. When Europeans countries implemented free trade, this created a recession in Europe and growth in UK. A German economist List invented the infant industry argument and he protected the German industry via trade barriers. And today the WTO, which enforces free trade on the weaker nations, has brought great benefits to the rich countries and brought cause great losses to the poor countries. Here is a picture of the benefits. This is the exports of goods and service. If you look at the green graph, that's the what has the high income countries started exporting and the gains to the poor countries are very low. The gains to Pakistan are not even worth mentioning. So basically the system is asymmetric favors the free trade favors the rich and is so what can we do? Well, Pakistan is really caught in a big crunch now. And so there is a short run solution which has to be political medium term requires self sufficiency in energy and agri products. And this can be achieved in three to five years. And in the long run, we need to develop local industries. Self-reliance strategy is necessary. And there is a drastic version in which we can go full Islamic and say that we renounce interest payments on foreign debt. But this will have massive political implications, which can be managed. There is a report of the Council of Islamic Ideology on Elimination of Industry in 1980, which mentions this idea and provides a detailed step by step transition plan. It needs to be updated, but the outlines are there. Now, in a short term transition to an industry economy, modern Islamic banks are the only available option. But this is not a satisfactory long term solution. So how do we resolve the short term burning problems facing the Pakistan economy? Well, the main problem is actually political. We have power struggles between the bureaucracy, politicians, army, and foreigners with their own agendas and huge amounts of money to influence outcomes. And so the solution required engineering a united front on defending Pakistan. And at the same time, protecting local industries from collapse, which is happening daily. In the medium term, we need to put all our efforts into creating energy and agricultural self-sufficiency. This will prevent us from needing so many imports and therefore allow us the once we don't need to borrow money, then we can craft our own economic policies. It's worth noting that we had industries in silk, mobile, small electronics, large electronics, telecommunications, aviation industry. And all of these industries have collapsed due to competition, free trade, and other factors. And this has caused massive damage to producer confidence. We need to understand that all of these magic tricks that we are trying to follow that lower corruption do this, do that. There are 10 forms of the Washington consensus formula, lower tariffs, encourage free markets. All of these are nonsense. They are meaningless. What we need to do is to develop local productive capacity, protect them from foreign competition and stimulate them to grow into world competitive industries. And this can be done. And there are a number of methods which have been used effectively in other countries. In the long run, if you want to create a Islamic economy, we have to eliminate inflation because if you want zero interest, you have to have zero inflation. Now, the problem is that economists have no understanding of inflation. And to understand this, you can just see around the world that they have been unable to control it despite their best efforts. Now, we have a minority school of thought, which is not being taught anywhere except for a few universities, which are called modern monetary theory, modern monetary theory is intellectual air to gains. And they have exactly an understanding of inflation. They have a policy recommendation for zero interest and zero inflation economy. And they have the mechanics of how to create it.