is a presentation of TFNN. The Tom O'Brien Show is produced every business day. Tom takes your phone calls toll-free at 1-877-927-6648, internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER>. Let's go to Eddie and Bookarton. Hey, Eddie, what's going on? Hey, Tom, how are you, man? I'm doing great, man, yourself. Good, good. It is a treasure to have TFNN every hour during the trading day to be there to help you to guide you and even to give you some peace of mind or like that somebody else is there with you while you're trading this crazy market, either up or down. Well, listen, we appreciate you growling and prowling us out here because we wouldn't be out here, folks, if we didn't have all you guys, gals, tigers and tigers as clients. And the market teaches you every single day, man. Tom O'Brien. Folks, this is Tom O'Brien of TFNN. We have five days a week. We go seven hours a day.  You focus on growth. Hope everyone's having a great day, safe day. It's a TGIF, folks, to make it a great one, except others the way they are. You cannot change other people. So try to change them to fit what you want them to be is like trying to change a dog into a cat or a cat into a horse. They are what they are, and you are what you are. Knock it off! Let's take a look at it out here. We have the Dow Industries up 210. NASDAQ up 12, S&P's up 16. Gold contract up $25, trading 18, 17, 17 ounce. You got Silver up 27 cents. 24 dollars, 19 cents, an ounce. Lights recruit up $254, trading out at $81, 34 cents, a barrel, notes and bonds. The 10-year note, up 17 ticks, trading 131, 27. The 30-year up, one full point plus 25 ticks, at 162, 29, and King dollar. King dollar's down 75 ticks, trading 94, 272. Euro is 115, Yen's 113.40, and the British pound is at 134 to one U.S. dollar. iPhone number's<PHONE_NUMBER>, give us a call, folks. One note's going on in your world. In the world of the S&P's, let's take a look at them, what do you have? We get all the indices at all time highs, folks. So, the spy, up today, you're at a buck 50. You're at 468.44. We get into the NDX 100 intraday. You had a little sell-down on this NDX, bottom line. They bought every dip out here, folks. The Q's right now, the Q's are trading up 24 cents. You're at 398.49. You made it to 400.04. If you had a man, Mr. Basil Chapman, man, I wish that would just hit 400. Those even numbers were just a mind blow. Bottom line, though, higher price. Gold, gold contract for Friday, folks. Bottom line, you got an ABC structure in the way up. The equities are already in an ABC structure. Well, they're in a potential ABC. Royal gold is in an ABC. That took out the B point, took it out with volume. That gold contract also took out the B point, took it out with volume. Now, let me show you something on the gold contract because intraday, you could have picked this up pretty easy. Actually, hold on. No, we don't have an ABC up because 8.15 has too many, yeah, we don't have. Okay, so when we went up there at 8.15, 18.15, on the 27th of October, yeah, you did 300,000 contracts. So we're gonna do, we did 268 today. Bottom line, you have higher price, but you don't have an ABC structure in the way up because you don't have enough volume. We'll see how this baby shakes out. 18.36, that's my take. That's where we're going. If we go take a look at the silver contract out here, we take a look at silver. What we have with silver, silver's up 28 cents. That is trading out here. Also a nice setup, 66,000 contracts. That's gonna be going after the B point. The B point on silver is 2492. And if silver does get that, that's gonna be a monster, A to B equals C to D. It's a 350, which would get you up to about the $27 area inside of the silver market. So it's one big number. There's no two ways about that. We go into the note and bond market. So note and bond market folks, higher price, lower yield. That's the bottom line and in a huge way too. So we take a look at the 10-year first.  We've done 1.7 million contracts. 1.8 now. Bottom line is a clear line right up to ice. So ice inside of the 10-year is laying out at 132.25. That's another full point on the 10-year. We go take a look at the 30-year because the 30-year leads out here. There's no two ways about that. That's how it normally works anyway, fundamentally. So the 30, oh, look at this man. Oh, okay, so check this out folks. This is a heads up for us. So the number I just gave you on the 10-year, let me do this one first. Well, the number I gave you on the 10-year, if I was giving you a number in the 30-year, that would have been saying that the 30-year would be 16109. And guess what? You're at 163. It blew by ice. This is saying, guess what? You are going to 16512 and we'll find out from there. Let me pull this up. This is going to be cool, one second. So what I'm going to do, I'm going to do now a continuous contract on a longer basis and see where we stand here. Okay, so let's see. Oh, I see. We had a lot longer to go. Okay, it's no big deal. Yeah, we're at 163. I don't know if that spike high was at 200 or not, but the last high and half was February of 2020. That was 182. So right now, I suspect we're going to 167. Well, we'll see how that shakes out. The, oh, I know what you wanted to show you, the gold contract interday. So what you had out here this morning, folks, okay, is that the gold contract took out a B point of an ABC structure on the way up, interday this morning. And it was a beauty too. So where are we here? Here it was right here, I believe, right there. I had 1815, I'm trying to figure out where I got that from. Almost looks different than I'm looking. Oh, there it is, okay, that's what I did. Okay, so what happened, it's a two-day A to B. That's what's going on. The B point out here was 1800. You blew it away with volume and that gave you an 1815 A to B equals C to D.  So it's pretty cool. Some of the higher volume equities out here today, we have Ford Motor Company's down $0.05. You got Pfizer up $425. Peloton, big number there, that's down $29 getting smoked. Looks like to me it's gonna actually go further down. Madeira is down $52. You get Bed Bath and Beyond up $195. Carnival Cruise is up $190. You have Apple, Flat, Uber Technologies up $2. Merck's down $8. Norwegian Cruise Lines is up $2. If we go over to, let's see, Airbnb, Airbnb, Airbnb, Airbnb. That had a nice bit out here today. That came in with some numbers. That's trading $199.97 and that's a big move. And I'll show you something with, you know, the cool thing about the Airbnb one and keep this in mind in the future, folks, okay, is that, you know, Marriott had come up with numbers before Airbnb. Marriott had come up with numbers on Wednesday. There were great numbers. It went higher with volume, bottom line. That's important to understand why, because when you're talking about the same sector, Airbnb is the de facto hotel operation.  Dow Industries right now up $219 and ASICs up $18, S&Ps up $17.5. So there, right there, folks, come right back. Are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio? Tom O'Brien is here to help. Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years. A frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC, Tom O'Brien founded TFNN over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you. Tom's Daily Market Newsletter, Market Insights, is published every morning when the market's open. To give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed, these newsletters are packed full of Tom's advanced technical analysis and are geared to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio. 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Dow is up 207, the Aztecs up 18, S&Ps are up 16. Let's go inside the Dow industrials first to see the strength versus the weakness inside the Dow. Strength out here, you got Boeing, looks like Boeing's the number. Boeing's up putting 73 positive points in the Dow, Visa 49, Disney 35, America Express 28. Taken away from it, Merck, minus a 55, Home Depot, minus 21, Amgen minus 12. We go into the NDX 100, we take a look at the NDX, what we have with the NDX out here. Strength versus the weakness, you got Bookings.com up 7.5%. Trip.com is up 5.8%, Qualcomm's up 5, Makata Libri's up 4.8. Taken away from it, Peloton and Moderna are the big numbers out here. Peloton's down 34%, you got Moderna down 18%. Zoom is down 7% and DocuSign is down 5.6%. So let's go over to Peloton here because this is no doubt a monster hit. The thing that's amazing about this folks is that this was a billion dollars shot and their numbers, one billion, okay? You're talking about some monster numbers here. Now if we take a look at it, you got to, to me, what you have here, wide open, I think, I know this is bad. They had a high of 171, but this looks to me like, we're gonna be going down to 45, 35 on the weekly. Let me put this on a monthly for a second. Yeah, this is gonna, oh, this is gonna be, okay, here we go. Then ABC down, right from the highs. 171 to 80, 90 bucks, 90, there it is, 30, that's 30 to 40 bucks, was that right? Well, 40 bucks. 40 bucks is the monthly ABC structure on the way down. I mean, it's a monster number, there's no doubt about that. And when we take a look at the revenue structure inside it, you're gonna see, oh, this is interesting. They only go by the years. They don't give me the breakdown. When do I? Anyway, the bottom line, they didn't come in with the numbers. That's the, and they're losing money. Man, magic, could you imagine folks, so pitch this, how the heck, well, we know this, that would be the wrong question. How the heck do you take in $4 billion and lose money? That's what public companies tend to do, until they make money. But it's amazing. So 2021, taking $4 billion and lose 36 cents a share. Wow, that is intense. That is as intense as you can get. Airbnb's just the opposite, that's going top side. Let's go see what the good old King Amazon is doing out here. Okay, so Amazon gets up to the swing. The swing's $35.49. Right now, you got $35.66. It couldn't hold price, but you know what's happening here? So check this out. It didn't hold price, but it had volume. So when you have volume, and you get into a swing, and you give it up on price, most times you go right back top side. That's how this works, folks, okay? So I expect you're gonna see it. See, we're going into $2.7 million. $2.1 million, no, $2.7 million. At the high that was generated out here on the 9th of September. Well, we've done 4.1. So bottom line, it'll be right back up there and test it again. Now what you do have here is this. What you're looking at, that's the supply line, and that supply line is not a large supply line. And what I mean by that is this. You have anyone that bought it from the June, January 5th through February 29th the reason that would be the supply line is that they bought it at higher price. That's how that works, folks, okay? That's how that goes. Let's go take a look at NVIDIA, N-V-D-A, and what the question is on NVIDIA, let's see. Oh, cool, okay, so we'll do that.  We know it's a rocket ship, okay? There's no doubt about that. So we're gonna dig into the 13F filings and if you're watching Tiger TV, these are right up on my screen. So what happens with the 13F filing, folks, okay, is that whether it's a large fund or a large owner, as they buy into it, they basically have to update what they're doing. And in this case, let's see. So we're in November 5th today. So what you're always looking for when you're doing this is that you're looking for something that's really close. We're not looking for the 630s because we know what happened on 630. That's the end of that quarter. 930 right there, well, Bank of New York, because that's September 30th, that'll be a new one. And then there's not much there, man. And then the cells, 930, UBS. Yeah, so there's not as much as you would think that it would be, that's the bottom line. Let's go take a look at the GDX out here. A few of these gold equities. GDX, right now, the market didn't hold price yesterday. So this is kind of, no, this is exactly like I was talking about, that you go to higher price and it doesn't hold. So what we had out here yesterday is this, folks, okay? None of the gold equities held, the metal did. See how GDX had volume yesterday? It's up to $26 million, gets to a price point of $32.65, doesn't hold price. Today, you're right back up to that level. Bottom line, you're up 87 cents. Now if we put this on a weekly, you're gonna see it's a really sweet setup. So watch on the weekly, watch this. Three weeks ago, we had strength inside the gold and silvers. You went top side with $123 million. We came back down, we tested that area with $81 million, and you rejected the price. This is really sweet. 81 million to 123, folks, a monster number. This thing's gonna go after the B point. I expect the GDX, we're gonna be up at $40 bucks. Right now you're at $32.62. And if I look at here, watch this, I'll do a royal gold, because royal gold is one of the first ones that finally took out a B point and took it out with volume. If we put this on a weekly, let's see what we got. Now on a weekly, it doesn't say much just because you come off the bottom.  And 109 is where it's gonna get some flack, you know. And that 109 is where we went downtown in June. That's where you can basically expect some flack in the business. Let's go take a look at Microsoft and see how Microsoft's setting up now. Microsoft has been one of the strongest equities inside of the market. That's still hanging out there, man. 336, pretty amazing. And this equity has gone up 90, well, yeah, $95 in six months. $95. And want to see something, folks, this is which amazing to me. They have 7.5 billion shares. In order to move something $95 with 7.5 billion shares, you need such a huge amount of buying, it's incredible. But guess what? That's what's happening out here. I'm sure the note and bond market's flipping people right out, but guess what? This is lower for longer in a big way. And we take a look. I'll just do this quickly, you know, the rates worldwide, guess what? We're still, we're at 1.43 in the 10 year. And guess what? Germany's in a negative. Negative 0.28 at Neverland, Switzerland. They've always been in negative forever. And there it is again. Look at Greece.  They're still, Greece can still borrow money at 1%. And we're paying 1.43. These rates are going down, man. That's the bottom line. And we'll see what the rest of it shakes out. Dow Industries, right now up 183, Nasdaq up eight, S&P's up 13, coming up back, folks. You having fun trading the markets, but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with? Become an Apex creditor in the trading markets and join the Tiger's Den Trading Room only at tfnn.com. The Tiger's Den is an exclusive trading room where successful traders from around the world come to exchange trades and ideas. Join the den and surround yourself with the sharpest minds in the trading world. Subscribers to the Tiger's Den are also the first to have their questions answered live on air and can privately chat with our tfnn hosts live during their shows. Interact with other Tigers and Tigers' as they share trading ideas, news analysis, and discuss the market action all trading day. 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TFNN is excited about our new software charting program, The Art of Timing the Trade Charts. In collaboration with Tom O'Brien and using his best-selling book, The Art of Timing the Trade, your ultimate trading mastery system, David White has programmed an outstanding piece of software that will complement any trader's methodology. Using this first-of-its-kind program, The Art of Timing the Trade Charts allows you to scan thousands of stocks for Fibonacci formation setups, including Gartleys, ABCs, Butterflies, and much more. The Art of Timing the Trade Charts is designed to help you when scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days, weeks, or even months searching to find. And right now we're offering licenses available at only $79 a month. We are so confident that you're gonna love this new charting software that will even give you a 30-day unconditional money-back guarantee. Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software. Get your copy of The Art of Timing the Trade Charts today by visiting tfnn.com. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com. Welcome back folks to Dow. Dow Industries right now trading at $192. We get the Mazdaq up $16, S&Ps up $14.5. Let's go to Robert in Kansas City. Robert, what's going on brother? Happy Friday. Happy Friday, that's right man. It's a beautiful day, totally. So how's life? It is. It's, hey, I'm here talking to you. That's right man, I like it. It's holy. Can you do me a favor and look at two mining stocks? One is Veil, Veas and Victor, ALE. I like it because it has a nice dividend but I don't think it's quite bottomed yet. But I've been watching it like a hawk. The only thing I'll tell you, it's received a wealth notice from the FCC and I didn't know what your thoughts is on that. It's probably related to the dam failure a couple years back. Right, right. So let's take a look. So Valley folks pays a 12.9% dividend at this point. And when you see these numbers, what do you see these numbers folks? Okay, these numbers that Valley takes in is insane. So this year, 310 billion with the B. 310 billion, okay. And this is how they take it in. They take in 149 billion in Asia, 27 billion in Europe, 23 billion in the United States, 7 billion in the Middle East. This, and when you take a look at the description here, now they're the largest iron ore producer out there. But what you can see inside this if you happen to be watching Tiger TV folks is that you see in their box site, they have aluminum, they have potash, okay. Big numbers. One of the problems that they've had and then they're based in Brazil, one of them, then they also have the railroads and the maritime terminals. The problem here in this downdraft, no doubt, is all about iron ore. Iron ore went through the moon. When it was through the moon, of course, Valley's out there trading at $23. Now you're $11.65 and let's bring this back. So, I mean, $10.90, I think it's gonna get tested, but you can see as you're coming down, the volume's contracted pretty dramatically, man. And where I'm going, Robert, with this is that that's the highs of the lows that were generated out here in March. The lows $6.49, the highs $10.90, maybe a way to $10.90. If rejects low prices, what equities like to do folks is this, on high volume spikes, they first go to the high of the low. If they go to that high of the low and they reject that price and they have lighter volume, that's kind of, that's what they do. If they get into that bar, then they'll like to go to the bottom of that bar. So, depending on your appetite here, let's go, well, let's go look at iron ore because this is all, that Valley is all about iron ore. So, let's see, iron ore. It's at $5.77. This is down from like some outrageous number. We're up at $12.30. This looks like this might be turning too. You know, what I would do is this, I would wait for that lower number, Robert. The reason I'm saying that is that the driving force, well here, you can actually see it here, watch this. The driving force, let's bring it back up again. You see when that revenue breaks down? Yeah, this is something I would look at like on a weekly chart for myself just to make sure that it's stabilized before I took a position. No, for sure. Well, if you're watching to Tiger TV, see the revenue? See where it's from? Asia, $149 billion. That's all about China. That's all about huge steel buildings. And guess what? The bottom line, folks, is that you are going to see a disaster. Well, the disaster's already out here. They're trying to hide it as much as they can. But those developers up in China, man, there are so many loans that they have and that the government of China still don't even know that they have. So to answer your question, I wouldn't touch it right now. What was the second one? And Rio, RIO, is it kind of the same category? It is the same. It's the exact same, really, right? So Rio, they're paying a 12 and a half percent dividend. The lowest 56, the highest 93. There you go. Same deal. China's 25 billion out of the 62 billion, you know? INR is the big number there. Well, let's go take a look at it and technically see how this is set up. And they could, even though the dividend looks great, I mean, they could cut that dividend. Yes. With Rio, 49 bucks, man. They're the same setups. I'd be going for the same place, too. Yeah. Well, thank you. I appreciate you taking a look. Okay, man, you have a great one and a safe one. LU, let's see, let's get this one, LUMN. So Lumen Technologies, they provide digital solutions for home business premises. The lowest nine dollars, the high 16. It's trading at 14, 16. They take in, look at this little company, man. Little company. Oh my God, I don't even know about this company. They take in five billion every 90 days, folks. Look at this. How many employees they have? 37,000, okay. So let's take a look at this, how this is set up. Oh, look at that thing. Holy cow. So you certainly had a sign of strength yesterday. The stock on Wednesday was trading at 12 dollars. Gets up to 14, 16. Put this on a weekly, well, I'm not sure why this is such a volatile stock. I mean, the week of January, trades from 11 to 16 and closed at 12. Oh, it's Centrelink. I see, okay, so it's a phone company, right? Isn't that a phone company, Centrelink? It is, okay, yeah, yeah. This is not a bad setup. This is not a bad setup. That's the bottom line. I mean, if you own it, keep it. You know, when you get up, because this definitely broke a swing, broke wood volume, that's saying that it wants to trade up to this 15, 45 area. That's how that is set up. Yeah, they do almost have a monopoly. And what they definitely do have also is this, is that in smaller communities, folks, that still have millions of people, Centrelink basically had just about a monopoly. That's how it was set up. And they do pay a dividend. One of the targets, probably, they get an 8% dividend. So that's in there and that's real. Apple, we had a question on Apple. Let me see, let's see. Apple was, come on, where are I gonna read fast? Thank God I took everyone wood reading dynamics, folks, when I was in the third grade. You know what happened? This is a funny story, man. I came home in the third grade with a D in reading, right? And in my household, it was the end of the world. I mean, in a big way. So my mother and father sent me to Evelyn Wood Reading Dynamics. And I'm telling you, it was one of the best things that ever happened to me. And Evelyn Wood, at that point, was speed reading, folks, okay? And I literally can speed read. But it was really funny, man. I learned it in like, you know, I don't know, six months. And it was great. Yeah, Evelyn Wood Reading Dynamics, I don't know. Okay, so let's see, Apple, we gotta look at Apple. Stay right there, folks, come right back. We take a look at Apple out here. It traded 151. This is coming right into resistance, too. It's gonna need more juice, that's the bottom line. Doesn't look like it's gonna have it. Stay right there, folks, come right back. Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area, including the surrounding St. Petersburg, Tampa, and Clearwater markets? Tiger Real Estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay Area. 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Visit DirectionInvestments.com slash Biotech today. An investor should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the direction shares carefully before investing. The prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares. To obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus, please contact Direction Shares at<PHONE_NUMBER>. The prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing. An investment in the funds is subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor, Four-Side Fund Services, LLC. Toll free at 1-877-927-6648. Internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER>. Tom O'Brien! Welcome back, folks, to Dow. Dow investors shows up to 221. We get the NASDAQ up 34, S&Ps are up 18. I guess today, folks, is a bear, a bull, Judea. What she has done, pretty cool. She's built a cloud-based software to empower attorneys to conduct legal affairs. The platform is called LexDoc. It was launched in 2018. It offers a legal concierge platform that features cloud-based subscription software solutions where businesses and organizations can conduct all their legal affairs in one secure location. Abia, welcome to TFNN. Thank you, pleasure to be here, Tom. It's great to have you. So, tell us about your platform and tell us how you can help small businesses, or maybe just even individuals and attorneys. My understanding is that you can help all of them, right? I can help everybody, Tom. I like it. Well, actually, to start, I'm part of a thriving technology community. So LexDoc is one of 15 companies that were invited to join the Tampa Bay Wave Tech Women Rising Accelerator, and we're very thankful to JP Morgan and Chase, sponsor of our program. That's one way we are part of a community that is thriving and supporting both businesses and individuals in the Bay Area. That's great to know. That's huge. It is, it is. This type of community also brings other industry leaders. So you've heard some of the news about ARC and Goldman Sachs moving to this neighborhood. So that's great news, and they're coming because you have, as a community, built a technology base that is bringing additional industries that want to support this community. Pretty exciting, right? Yeah, pretty exciting. It is. You know, and I've had a few people on, you know, and it's really cool. I've been here 25 years now. I'm from Boston, so I saw it happen in Boston. You know, people think Boston was always Boston, and when I was a kid growing up, you know, always a great city, but guess what? It wasn't, I had an office actually in Kendall Square, and that's where the whole biotech thing started. The first building at Kenmore Square, actually, I had an office there. So it's amazing how fast folks, something can happen. And it's happening in the Tampa Bay, St. Petersburg, Clearwater area, you know? So tell us about LexLock. So I love that you said that, because I'm from New York, and early in my legal career, I was traveling back and forth to Boston, beautiful, beautiful community, too. But here, it's a budding technology that's bringing a lot of opportunities to the locals as well as businesses. So LexLock itself is building its own community as a marketplace. Okay. The second place is to support businesses and attorneys. And how we're doing that is empowering the businesses to stay in charge of their legal affairs. How do you do that? Well, you give them tools, advanced technology solutions like workflow, collaboration, project management, messaging, billing, and also connect with other attorneys. And the attorneys, we give them the tools to build their businesses and grow. How do you help an attorney grow? Well, you give them referrals and businesses are the referrals they need. So all the attorney has to do is set up a free profile and wait for opportunities to come their way. I see. So this is a subscription-based business, folks. Okay, so here, walk us through it. Let's say I'm an attorney and I jump on there and I want to get some business. So I'm in the Rodex, but I'm in your platform. And of course, all attorneys specialize in different things. So is that what we're talking here? So the attorneys have a profile. You can fill out information as much as you like. Yes. There is a way for you to add your picture, you add your specialty area, your education, what your specialty, the type of businesses you'd like to serve. And you wait for a business to connect with you. And when they connect with you, you know that they're currently in the market looking for exactly the type of services you're providing. So let me ask you this. Let's just do a mortgage closings, okay? Because I'm really familiar with those, okay? Let's just say you're doing refis and what does happen in Florida, folks, is that people don't use attorneys. I use attorneys all the time, okay? Because I'm from Boston and I'm just used to it. A title company's great, but guess what? I need an attorney too. So let me ask you. So I could go out to like three or four attorneys on your platform and price it out? Well, the attorneys part of their profile, they set their pricing and they give you a sample agreement.  So if it's somebody that is a little too high for your budget, you don't have to go with them. Which is great, yeah, no, that's what I'm asking. That's cool, okay, right? Right, right, that's, now that's opening up a whole deal, folks, because no one ever wants to give you prices. That's pretty cool, no, you know, because we know most of the time it works on a percentage of what you're refinancing or how much you're getting. That's pretty cool, man. So what do you find is the most demand on Lex Lock? Lex Lock, we have a, we are industry agnostic. So real estate, mortgages, transportation, healthcare, schools have found our platform to be very helpful, especially any, any business that has repeat type of legal work. So if you're doing contracts all the time, you want to stay on top of everything in real time. You don't want to keep calling your attorney to find out what's going on with my case. You want to know what's in your case and what's happening in real time. And that's the advantage that Lex Lock gives you. It saves you money on all these phone calls just for updates alone and allows you to connect with the attorney in real time, message them, have your file organized, put all of your legal documents right in front of you so that you can evaluate the performance too. So if you see, you have a bunch of deals happening in at the same time, you can see where the attorney is performing and how they're doing. And sometimes, even if the attorney is fantastic, the deal may not be worth it for you because it's taking so much attorney time, you might as well kill that one and stay with a more promising deal that you're working on simultaneously. So these are the types of decisions, business decisions that are made easier when you have your legal affairs in your pocket and you're in charge of them. No, that's a great program. I, yeah, I get it. Because what happens is that I'm in the construction business also and I use co-construct. And what happens, folks, is that I believe what Abair is explaining to us, when everything is one space, you understand things much more. And I can go back, whether it's a year, two years, I can see what the bids are, I can see where they were, I can see where everything else was. That's impressive. I love, because when it gets rid of, it gets rid of emails, it gets rid of texts, and you have everything in one spot, right? I know, you get me. You get me. No, that's cool. When you do, that is so cool. Well, listen, this has been a pleasure. The website, folks, is LexDoc. L-E-X-D-O-C-K.com. Abair, thank you very much. You have a great weekend, safe weekend, and we look forward to having you on again. Thank you, Tom, I can't wait. Thank you, okay, have a great one, have a safe one, bye-bye. Stay right there, folks, come right back. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority in technical market analysis, and it's not just dry, tedious text either. TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV, live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern for free. Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN, educating investors. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at TFNN.com. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices.  First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. TFNN.com, educating investors. Are you looking for secured investment which pays you on a monthly basis? The target first mortgage program may be the program for you. The best rate on a five-year CD in the country right now according to bankrate.com is paying 1% per year or $1,000 per 100,000 invested. The target first mortgage program pays 7% per year, paid monthly on secured, high-value, billable properties in St. Petersburg, Florida. The investment is for four years, paying 7% per year or $7,000 per 100,000 invested. Your investment is secured by high-value real estate in St. Petersburg, Florida. Your investment can be anywhere from 100,000 to 500,000. You want to make 1,000 per year on 100,000 invested or 7,000 per year on a secured, high-value first mortgage. The target first mortgage program may be just the program for you. The target first mortgage program pays 7% per year, paid monthly. For more information, you can call<PHONE_NUMBER>. That's<PHONE_NUMBER>. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. Welcome back, folks, to down down industrial's right now. Up 200, we get the NASDAQ up 21, S&P's up 15, Gold stock folks up 25 bucks, Silver's up 30 cents, good numbers out here, man. No two ways about it. Yeah, notes and bonds, same deal. Let's go to, I want to take a look at King Dala because that is the number for us folks that are in the metal market. King Dala still is going to be fighting about this, you know, it's going to be fighting about this 93, 729 area. So we're above it, that's the real bottom line. It failed at a triple top out here today, you know, that doesn't mean anything, no folks, okay? The bottom line, we'll see whether it can get down and we can get a failure of the 93, 729 area. If we go take a look at the Euro, Euro is 60% of the US dollar index. So we have at the Euro, Euro rejected lower price today at 1.1514. And the pound, let's go look at the pound quick. So the pound got smoked yesterday, that's still lower. That looks like it wants the basic, oh, look at, oh, that's nice, man. Okay, no, the pound got to 134.24, rejected lower price. It has a hammer, that wants higher price. Now let's just get the yen together and the yen right now, not bad, man. We get action, we get action here, man. The yen went down 42 ticks. That's been consolidating for the last three weeks. That had a breakout going all the way back to September 28th. So we got some action, man. We definitely got some action. If you haven't test driven the gold report yet, folks, go do it. We got ABC structures up all over the place. Just go to our website at TFNN, you can test drive it. If you haven't tested it before, it's I believe 30 day money back guarantee. That's the real bottom line. We're gonna close it all time high, so we gotta do the IWM. So what happens with the IWM also, folks, this is where this is always dangerous, is that when you have a commodity bull market, most of the commodity stocks are small caps. And that's why, you know, first you had the oil running it, now with the oil stop running it, now the golds are running it, all the small commodity stocks are running it. That's also at an all time high. Always remember, folks, the bank and claw your hat out, the bull can run you over and thank God, there's always another trade. Health, happiness and prosperity have a great weekend, have a safe weekend. Please tell your friends about TFNN, come back here Monday morning, Tommy kicks us off nine in the morning, great show. Yeah, I'll get them, folks. Building well.


Tonight we assess the Godfather General's power play in Nigeria ahead of the 2020 elections and also 447 of 5,000 nominees selected for national awards, says Minister of Special Duties and Intergovernmental Affairs George Akume. This is Laws Politics, I'm Emmanuel Ulububukum. Glad to have you back. The 2020 elections can be likened to a race of the fittest by fitness, it means that every political party must ensure to erode the best candidate for winning the race. The behind-the-scenes efforts of Niger's former military leaders, according to reports, was a salient feature of the last presidential primary of the main opposition people's Democratic Party, PDP. When parties did not follow the democratic processes to present a candidate for the general elections, the obvious result is the Anakin Nigerian's experience during elections as a tuggery and all the forms of violence have been truncated in the process. During this life, all to discuss this is up now in Kotaire at the civil rights advocate and as an executive in the Etok governorship candidate of the EDC, River State. Glad to have you on the programme. Yes, good evening my brother and good evening my dear friends. Yes, now I was looking at what is on the ground in terms of Godfatherism, in terms of looking at Godfatherism in the country. What can you say first is this manner of Godfatherism, you know, wanting to look after to get re-addicted from a particular person before I can run for any position in the country? Well, Godfatherism is a function of certain very large appetite to dominate the political space. And so what they do is to ensure that they get into positions of authority, their fish and addles, their lackeys, and those that they believe are loyal to them. With the primary aim of controlling them. So when they are even out of office, I'm talking of the Godfatherism, they have got some to do their bidding. And this is just the genesis of Godfatherism. There is this natural tendency for certain persons to control the will of power.  I mean, not just the clouds, if I say clouds, I will go up. If it's a cloud, then you are talking of mobilizing. But these are the ones who are in charge of mechanism that leads out in the country. So they decide not to expand them, the competence of whoever they want to put in there, what is primary to the Godfatherism is loyalty. Mr. Ezekiel, are you with us? Hello, can you hear me? Yes, Walden Clay, can you? Yes, I can. Okay, now looking at the topic, we have before us assessing the Godfather general powers in play in Nigeria, head of the fourth government entry general elections. I was asking, looking at that Godfatherism, what can you say it's ease? You see, the concept of Godfatherism is getting a little bit redefined to be like political sponsors, because it's getting a little more dynamic. In the past couple of weeks, as it were, I've been running, as it were, public enlightenment on funding for elections. It is within the context of looking for funds, because now we don't have electoral processes where one man can sit and detect, unlike before, where he had the power to do and undo. These days, with the innovations from INEC, you discover that if you have funds, you can do, you can run a solo, you can have a solo run. So right now, we are looking more into the Godfathers being replaced by the funders of your campaign. It's become a lot more complicated, and I was able to outline five funders of campaigns. The first are just run very quickly, because of time.  So you make that, make that personal sacrifice, personal funds and your friends. Then the second one is a loan, a political loan. Political loan is the one that you just put down a major property and it is a do or die affair, and somewhere along the line, you can very easily get to endorse another person, so it's like sell out towards the end. The third is what we call the political funders. That is where you now call the Godfather kind of stuff. Three, four friends come together and they say, we want to take off the government of a quiet state. Let's recruit a willing hand that can run the campaign with fund, but then we become the owners of the government. You don't need to have your money, you just do your bidding. This is what we want every month, and this is what we want to decide on things and that. Then the fourth one is gov, you just dip your hand into the seal of government, and then take the money and run the election. Now these two are related in the sense that except you're a second-term governor, you get a first-term governor, you have to depend on somebody, dips his hand into the seal and funds your election, and then you become the boy of that person until you gain your freedom as it were. The last one is about the most dangerous, which is the ritual. You go to the devil, let me put it up bluntly, and you get a deal with him. Every billion has five, ten heads to go.  Know those things. For each billion, there's a package of ten heads, and they give that to you, rituals. So by coming back to your question, the man who brings out money from his pocket, like me, I took to run for the governorship of a state, he doesn't need any government or nothing. And the man who takes his money based on his property doesn't need it. It is between these two, the one who goes to political funders, they do the business of politics, the old states, between that and those who dip their hands into the government seal to bring money to run election. So that is becoming a little different from what we used to have before where we had this strong man of the bad on politics, and then he will say, this one goes, that one stays. Now, it's becoming a little more dynamic, and a little different from what was in the past. Okay. Yes. Now, still on that now, you know, it has been said that over years, you know, we have the Godfatherism being the plane in terms of owning the country, per se, like Nigeria as it is. And but now, you know, people are still saying that it seems that even the so Godfathers are the ones now wanting to, you know, be at the forefront of this election, not looking at the force coming to enter in general elections. Now, what can you say to this? Because in terms of ownership, now you said they do the funding. But some say that some that don't actually do the funding, according to some that have gotten that they actually do the funding, they actually stand and say, okay, this must not work without my knowledge. What can you say to this? No, no, you see, there are two processes. The first process is inter-party within the party. They can, they still call the shots, they still own the party. They can say, I want this person, I don't want this person. But when you move to the next phase where you've gotten the ticket, you're not a candidate, you know, these are two different fields of play, and the models operandi are different. Within the parties, the party, you know, internal party mechanisms are still not tight, not, they still, isn't that independence, so to speak. You know, there's still a good amount of ownership of the party. For instance, if you want to get a ticket, the governor of that state is going to determine whether you get a ticket or not to a very great extent. You know, the governor is like the godfather in the party, in the state.  And with the introductions of INEC right now. So we need to know where we are talking.  Then we can say that there's still a lot of godfathersism, which is like owners of the party. When you come into general election, no, that's a lot of things are changing right now. I can tell you that for free. Okay, now we have open a ball on standby now. So what can you say about this? You've had Mr. Ezekiel talk about the godfathersism now. What can you say in terms of how it has played a part in Nigerian politics, you know, for its inception, you know, to date? And it's actually playing, because some say it will still continue to play. What can you say to this? Well, actually your question is how the rule of godfathers Yes, yes, in terms of looking at politics in Nigeria. No, like I said, I was saying this for the third time. Yes. I just said it's to remove control, the machinery of godfathers, the rules of godfathers. So they are outside and they plan their promise and not necessary plans of competence, but those that are loyal to them and not necessarily loyal to the constitution or loyal to the people that supported me put them in there, but those that will give their own building while they're in office. And most of the teachings, they are so complex. And that's why in fact, you have all kinds of characters that are not qualified in government, in positions of authority.  So they believe that you will go in there, hello? Yes, I can hear you. Hello? Yes. Yes, they will never want you to get into office. They want those that millions that they can control. And it started with the generals, because they were in office. Apologize. Hello? Yes, I can hear you.  Go ahead, sir. Yes. And most of them have finished the tragedy, right? So they had enough money to control, to control the public and to control the system. And they were in charge. So they detested the base, and that was why the generals that they got from them. But they are far away, because now you have civilians in positions of authority, and these civilians that have been in office and have also finished the tragedy drive. So they believe, like governments, they have to ensure that those that will cover their tracks, those that will be loyal to them, even when they are out of office, are the ones that are being planted. And this is what you will require to have got Fadarizim in politics. So now, are we not saying now, this I'm going to be asking Mr. Ezekiel, sir. Now I'm going to say this. Are we not saying that now, looking at it as God Fadarizim now, played a huge part in terms of Nigerian politics. What I'm trying to imply in terms of fact that now over time, looking at the economy, looking at how far the Nigerians have gone for the 62 years, since we just since independence. How has God Fadarizim been so far? And should we still allow this to still play out? Okay, like what my brother has said, is very, very likely true. You know, there was always been money in politics, and money was in the hands of a few people. Okay, prior to 1999. And even the first set of people that came in, but when you had the first set of governors that had two terms, they had enough money. And then you had the second set from 2007. They had a lot more people that had a lot more money. By the time you came to the next set of 2015, we don't have people who can like run elections independent of the Godfathers. And as a result of that, the influence that these people wielded, which had to do with money, is not as strong as it was. And there's something that he said, which is very fundamentally true. The so-called sponsorship of Godfadarizim concept thrives on one thing, what they call loyalty, their concept of loyalty, which is becoming their boy, feeling their greed, and being held hostage almost throughout. So, but I would like, I think these sort of discussions are relevant to the extent that they extract the future. I think that what I would like to put forward to our people today is that, we've passed the era of getting tickets, everybody has had today. I hope you know that today, that the campaigning for the governors and the state have assembly officially took off. And as from today, we are not talking of aspirants, how you get the ticket, we are talking of candidates, how you get the ballot. And within that concept, I need the people to understand that the power now comes back to them, no matter who was the Godfather, who was in the Godfather. It is now in the hands of Nigerians to decide who they want to have as their next president or as the next governor. If we are able to enlighten the people enough for them to realize that the power of the Godfather is only to the extent where they use their resources to influence you. Because now there isn't that thongry anymore, there isn't that violence anymore, not as preponderance as before. But now it is the people deciding and what place next is the vote buying. And it's a choice of the people who say, I'm going to sell my future for this, my four years for this 2009 era, but we are going to do massive work. And it started, I just came from a local community where I had what I could call my takeoff in a community that we had less than 500 people, so to speak, where we sat down and what happened there was phenomenal. It was fire because I was able to sit with the people and for over an hour, drill down how the power beckoned me in their hands now. So now the more we are able to enlighten the people, the more they realize that the Godfathers would lose their hold on the people for as long as the people realize that they would rather choose a better future than a present, you know? It's like stripping your future to enhance your present. We are going to enlighten the people and they are buying it. From what I saw today, it was awesome and we need to do a lot more to enlighten the people and by so doing we would have finally broken the backs of these so-called Godfathers. Of course, we need to do a lot more enlightening people in the area of Godfathers. But because of our time, we will be able to take much out. We thank you very much, and Mr Apunavore, in Kothari and Ursu, Mr Zikil, who happens to be the ADC Governorship Candidate for the United States. Can I take your act? Okay, just a few minutes, sir. Yes, yes, yes, yes. We have an act which I wanted to talk about. So, I'm looking for my next one just a nice one. I'm looking for my next one. I'm looking for my next one. And I would like to add a lot of things that I do here. So, we're going to have to conform to the principles. There should be four types in use values. In other words, I, for example, I'm not a member of any political party. Okay. So, we'll be finished on the candidates. I will vote across party lines. My Ask My Assembly member might be a member of a different political party. My look, my chairman might be a member of a different party. A member of a different party.  What matters is the deliverance of democracy and good governance. And so, we need a lot of enlightenment and I'll join Nigeria to also count their votes in that line. Of course. That's a big plea. You know, looking at the fact that many Nigerians now are turning out in masses, are turning out in masses to get their votes to start. Many thanks for joining us on the program, Mr. Ziko and also Mr. Opinabu. God bless you. Thank you very much. And now, while doing the stubbornness, we will take a short break now and when we get back, we will be discussing the National Honours Award given by the federal government. Mr. Widaz.


Okay, hello and welcome back to episode 83 of the market maker podcast where I'm joined by Piers Curran co-founder and head of trading and we're gonna talk about some of the major things that have happened in markets this week And it's been pretty incredible week. And so to give you a quick Flavor of what we're gonna discuss for the next Well, I'm not gonna commit to a timeframe, but for the period ahead The Bank of England they hype rates by 0.5 percent Taking the benchmark right now to two and a quarter percent as the higher since 2008 But the pound fell which is slightly Contradiction to normal economic theory so we'll discuss why that happened the Fed the US central bank they hype rates They went for another 75 basis point move higher and actually that might have been a relief to some which normally would have meant that stocks went up Because there was a partial market pricing of a of a hundred basis point rate hike Which did not materialize but stocks actually sold off for quite aggressively so and are still selling off in fact going into The final trading day of the week and Piers before you call me out We'll get to that in a moment in regards to my year-end call because Goldman Sachs have come out with an update and perhaps we can Briefly touch on that when we talk about the Fed as well and then two other big stories from the week Japan has finally Intervened in the currency and appears and I've talked about this for a while But we'll just quickly cover that as well as the first official intervention from Japan since 1998 And then a big story in the banking space You might have seen the FT reporting the credit suice is Considering splitting its investment bank into essentially three parts looking to pivot away from Traditional investment banking and focus more on wealth management, but can their new management team pull that off What is their strategy? So there the things will discuss before I begin though We did do a bit of a call to arms for our ratings of the pod and so Just a quick one be amazing if you could rate the show if you enjoy the episode or if you're a regular listener would super appreciate that We saw the Spotify ratings go from 256 up to 276 In the last week so good effort, but we need to hit that 300 marker and you could be that person to get us there So help us out and just to make it a bit interesting The Apple voters are a lot more complacent complacent voters Yeah, whereas the Spotify voters seem very motivated to get out there. So come on Apple guys Let's let's keep keep the pace, but um, yeah Please do drop us a rating it would be goes a long way to help get this out to a lot of people So let's kick things off then talk about about Fed So they've hiked interest rates by 75 basis points for the third consecutive meeting Some might have thought At least they didn't go for a hundred And that would have normally meant that stocks would go up in a kind of relief type reaction but the opposite happened and There was additional information of course which accompanied this particular meeting because it was one of those quarterly ones so March June set deck when they released their economic forecasts and perhaps Pierce you could Take us through those and why and what was the trigger then that's weighed on US equities? Yeah, definitely an important sort of week for sure an important Moment in the week was obviously that Fed meeting Wednesday night. I guess there's a simple way to kind of explain what happened and then Which we'll start with and then we can kind of drill into the kind of finer detail, but the simple fact of the matter is basically Powell in the press conference again has kind of shifted his sort of Outlook Let's say if you go back earlier in the year. I mean, obviously they've been raising rates all year inflation staying high and they're continuing to raise rates, okay? Fine, but the messaging about I guess the potential impact these higher rates might have has changed So I think back earlier in the year power was of the opinion that look, we're gonna have to raise rates here But it doesn't mean we're gonna have a recession. It was basically saying we could probably avoid a recession Okay, then in the summer he kind of shifted to going well We're probably gonna have a recession, but he was kind of talking about a soft landing So look, we got we got a raise rates faster. You know this inflation thing's a bit more of a problem than we thought So we're probably gonna have a recession, but don't worry. It's going to be a mild one And I think now he's really shifted again too We're gonna have to raise rates for you know faster for longer. They'll be higher And you know what and actually here's the quote he said we have got to get this is a direct quote from Wednesday night We have got to get inflation behind us. I wish there was a painless way to do it there isn't Basically translates to look we're probably on for a hard landing now So I think that that that's the kind of takeaway from Wednesday night that the recessionary impact of this Rate hiking cycle is now going to be worse So with these projections then so that's like the that's a great summary Of the situation. So let's delve into some of the numbers then and yeah to have a look at a couple So for context then in these quarterly projections, they will tell us market participants about things like their forecasting over things like inflation jobs growth and the big one which is where they see interest rates so officials coalesced around expectations of unemployment rate to rise To 4.4 percent they previously or the current rate is 3.7 percent. They expect GDP to slow to 0.2 percent for 2022 Rising slightly in the following years to a longer term rate of 1.8 but the big one That traders will look at is immediately to the the dot plot matrix. Yeah interest rates. So again just to recap This is where we will get a visual Chart with literally dots on it, which if you weren't educated about what that was you'd be a bit like What on there? What the heck is that but essentially Without knowing who specifically but we can have pretty educated guesses by the general stances of each Fed officials kind of communication on policy It plots them and where they see interest rates at the end of this year and each subsequent year thereafter And every quarter we're able to map over What the shape of interest rates looks like connecting the median Dot plots So what was the shift in the dot plots then this time? Right and so this is that finer detail as to really what drive the big market reactions that we saw and yeah I mean as you said To put even more simply the dot plot is really the feds method of forward guidance It's just them telling us what they themselves think Interest rate changes will look like in the future and and and this is where we've seen the big shift and we've seen massive shifts In this dot plot and as you said right Plot your dot for the end of each year And I think it's the 2022 end of 2022 dots Plot and and really now into 2023 So it's the front end of this dot plot curve that's key and it's the front end of the curve That's massively gone up throughout the whole year and it's stepped higher again so just for context in Well, if you went back let let let's make this really dramatic if you go back 12 months Okay So go back to the september 2021 Dot plot matrix. So on on that matrix. They had the forecast for interest rates at the end of 2022, right So back then a year ago the fed themselves were predicting that interest rates at the end of 2022 would be zero It's trying to get no change no rate heights at all obviously That was spectacularly wrong. So I guess that does maybe in one sense dilute the sort of relevance importance accuracy Of this, I mean you would have thought but It still plays a massive role in influencing market pricing But so if we skip on right so in December 2021 They were telling us rates at the end of this year would be 1% okay, so In three months they took their end of 2022 rate forecast from zero to 1% which is was a big jump, right March 2022 Their forecast moved up to 2% So now again another 1% jump in in year-end forecasting in june Right. So this I presume it'd be this is where the leap comes right that bury invasion of ukraine Exactly. So in june, they told us that year-end rates would be at three and a half percent Right. That was a 1.5% jump on the on the previous and then last this week Their year-end prediction went from three and a half percent to four and a half percent Essentially, well, it's basically between four and four and a half percent. Okay so yet again year-end Rate forecasts have jumped like a lot And and we're now up to this kind of four to four and a half percent range also The 2023 dots also jumped from three and a half Up to what's now basically between four and a half and five So that's yeah And the big thing there That was the one that immediately stood out to me was that people are thinking the recession is coming They're going to quickly start cutting rates But that we're talking about these projections are where our interest rates at the end of the year Yeah, in 2023 they actually see rates higher than when they see them ending in 2022 and that was critical Correct. And really the summer rally in stocks Was based on the idea that the fed would start to slow down their rate hiking And we were thinking You know, maybe september they might hike 50 Maybe november, maybe they'll do 25 or 50. They won't be hiking at all in december And then when we get into next year, they'll start cutting That was the thought in the summer that drove the stock market rally Obviously, that's now wrong Um, the fed aren't slowing down their rate hikes So the forecasting then because we still got two meetings to go this year, right and currently based off the dot plot That's another 75 hike in november and another 75 hike in december Maybe 50 to 75 in december Right. So And then we're actually forecasting another hike in february now So we're hiking into next year and then not Expecting rate cuts at all, right? So it's an incredibly You know, again, it's been the direction of travel here where we keep sort of adjusting We keep hawkishly adjusting our fed expectations It's been the absolute pattern For the last 12 months. We thought we were going to stop having to hawkishly adjust But sadly that's not the case So goldman's came out with a note last night and as you described that's the pattern of interest rate hikes that they see They actually see the peak of funds rate between four and a half to 4.75 percent That's broadly in line with that terminal rate of 4.6 and the the feds forecast The interesting part here is that goldman's now have cut their year end Target. I'm setting myself up here for a bit of a brutal bashing from peers But goldman's have slashed their year end target for the s&p the 3600 from 4300 but wait They based that on higher rates weighing on valuations, but the kicker which you'll particularly enjoy Is that goldman said the risk to the latest forecast are skewed to the downside Because of the rising odds of recession a scenario that would reduce corporate earnings widen the gap and push the u.s equity benchmark to a trough of 3150 Okay, that's that like outside bear most bearish case scenario Yeah, but then base case is 36 base case 36 bearish scenarios No one's interested in goldman's all right They were out for I mean what? End of year forecast was 4300 now they're going. Oops. Sorry guys got that wrong. Oops. Yeah, that's a no I stick to my guns. No one cares about goldman's what people really want to know about Is the antony chung year-end forecast Because you I think you're at 4600. Is that right? Well, yeah, you look I I I don't want to fall into this camp that you just said where You know, there's a it's being stubborn or keeping my credibility Well, I mean on the chart there's obviously is Many of our listeners will know there's a big level which is the summer low in june Which was that initial trough before the summer rally that we had Where we went from basically 36 50 all the way up to north of 4300. Yeah You know, so pierce wasn't so confident when we were smashing through 4k and heading to 4300 at the time So, you know, let's see because I remember the stat that we said before about We've never broken down further from a bearish move I think it was a stat we covered in a couple of other podcasts a while ago. This would be unprecedented if that happened The odds are rising against me at this point That's that's not right. What are you suggesting that it would be unprecedented for the market to break the summer low and go lower In terms of not in history, but going back to the date that I believe was what the second world war Right So it's happening. It's gonna happen summer lows That 3600 day if you go back on the chart, it's a key flexion point of for sure from a support in february 21 Yeah to a high during the kind of the rally back from the covet dip in late 2020 Big level and if we break that then massive. Yeah, that would be huge. You get a quick run down pretty quick Snap to 34 which was the pre-covid high And then there's a double bottom and another key level comes in at 3200 below Yeah, yeah that so we're trading 37 the low there We're about 100 points now in the s&p away from testing that key level. So yeah next week Let's make a break for me. Well, you know what's well just so just to bring the listeners up to speed because um, you know the best The best kind of lead indicator Well, the best indicator For market sentiment like globally Let me reveal it to this is a this is a high value big reveal here. The best indicator is Antony Chung's holiday schedule So whenever he goes on holiday Markets just collapse and tank Uh sentiment just It gets destroyed. Do you know what he's going on holiday listeners next week? So I just hope that the fallout is so severe that the fed go full board pivot to we'll do whatever it takes And then we just well here's the problem with that right because whilst Whilst maybe in the past that was the case right the fed were perhaps kind of held hostage by the stock market And whenever they're going look we need to raise rates in the stock market to sell off they go. Oh god. All right fine We won't Not anymore right pals in this mode where he's Really He now believes rightly or wrongly and time will tell but he and his team believe that the only way to get inflation down Is to actually Reduce demand right so One way the convention way is to raise interest rates cost of borrowings higher people borrow less they they spend less so that that kind of dampens demand and Price pressures kind of drop. All right, but he thinks he needs to go further and he needs to drive the unemployment rate up They they believe they've got to create a recession They have to they have to drive the unemployment rate up people losing their jobs then they're going to stop spending So that that's they that's how aggressively they're thinking here about how to To overcome this inflation problem raising rates isn't enough They have to drive that recession Destroy demand. That's the the the downside scenario that goldman's talk about about the further Impact that it would have on corporate valuations through the fallout of their earnings essentially Yeah Cool. Well, look, let's let's uh, let's pivot away from the fed And let's talk about the bank of England because I know you're a big fan And the bank of England have hiked interest rates for the seventh increase in a row. They've actually been hiking At every meeting since december It's hard to kind of remember. Yeah, they were the they were the first of the kind of Developed economies to start hiking So so rates now the higher since the the infamous 2008 and couple things before we delve into the the key part which was the The bank of England came out and they also lowered their forecast for peak inflation From what was I think it was 13.3 percent originally. They're now looking at less than 11 And suggested a deep recession might be averted because of some of the actions taken since liz trust and upm has come in particularly around this energy relief plan but the biggest talking point undoubtedly is I don't want to again dramatize it, but the utter chaos Going on in inside the building on thread needle street, which is where the bank of England is located because the vote split was quite radical I'd love to be a fly on the wall when they were debating this one out But what you were at you were outside the building and it's just around the corner from our our office So you you were outside you walked up and we're right. So could you actually hear them? Like screaming and shouting and arguing. Yeah. Yeah. I could hear glass glasses smashing I could hear everything but five five of them voted for a 50 basis point increase so they got their way Three though voted for 75 Yeah arguing that incoming fiscal support will also Add to demand so it kind of feeds through on what you've just explained with the u.s and what the fed trying to Counteract in that sense with higher unemployment, but then one I'm probably going to say her name incorrectly. So I apologize upfront, but swatty dingra Voting in her first meeting. She I believe was a professor at LSE in london This is her first meeting. She was the lone voice. So you got a you know, I've got admiration for her Play in that sense first meeting Stepping up to the plate and she went no, you're all wrong particularly She's wanted a zero point two five percent increase She cited concerns that activity was weakening and the risk of second round inflation Effects are falling Was her general thesis for her rationale But yeah, your take my take is I'm in her camp. I just wish she'd gone a little bit more Like and voted for no change If I I think I think if I was on the committee and and look I will never in my life ever be invited to join the committee Too many too many skeletons in your closet, but if I was I would have voted unchanged I think Yeah, the the fed the us is a whole different ball game to the uk. So the fed hiking, you know, fine. I get it Maybe that's right and justified. I think the uk I think we've got trouble coming and I think we need to stop hiking like now But so I wish she'd have gone just a little bit more braver But she was super brave and yeah, as you say stepping out and being that lone wolf is it takes a lot so I I put out a comment on linkedin after this saying that in my 20 years in markets I'd never seen The monetary policy committee of nine people Have three different Uh interest rate actions, so they vote nine of them as you're saying I I thought I'd never seen it where there's three different outcomes from the nine um, but I got corrected Someone messaged back going that you're wrong. It has happened in the last 20 years Uh, and it was in 2011 So they were and there they voted unchanged but you had um, a couple of people voting for 25 hike And then Andrew sentence voting for a 50. I remember he was the uber uber hawk, wasn't that's right Um, so it has happened In my lifetime. Obviously I forgot about that but anyway, it's super super super unusual um, look you could argue that The whole point of a committee. I mean really You should you should be forming the committee With the objective of having different opinions Right, there's no point having a committee where everyone just seems the same You know the whole point is right. What are the opposing opinions and let's kind of argue it out and and let's decide so um, I think you should always have a spread of You know this idea that unanimous which the ecb love to roll out Like the guards favorite word were unanimous. Well, I don't want I don't want you to be unanimous. There's probably some political overlay though on the unity of the eurozone and all the rest of it For sure, but look, I I think I think it's a reflection of just So this time they had yeah One saying 25 basis points most going 50 a few going 75 the point is It's so difficult The outlook is so uncertain It's an incredibly difficult moment in time and right you're getting a more of a spread of opinion and that kind of makes sense But it's a reflection of really No one really knows. I think they're just they're in the dark here They're literally in the dark and it's just doing it because everyone else is I mean, they were brave and they hiked first I think they should be brave and stop hiking first and and I just wish Well, maybe they'll do it next meeting but That's my view and so the uk Mini budget Has just come out Is there anything in there that people should be aware of that might impact the bigger picture Well, you there's a whole load of stuff, but you can bet your bottom dollar what the big headlines will be And that's that they've chopped the higher rate of income tax. They've removed it So the 45 band Which is on when does that kick in But is it above a hundred thousand? Thought 45 was 150 it was 150,000 right fine. So the bands are It's it's it's no income tax up to 12 and a half thousand Then between 12 and a half thousand and 40 odd Is 20 percent and they're actually lowering that band from 20 percent to 19 percent that kicks in april next year Then above 40 odd grams It's 40 percent and then above 150 grand. It's 45 percent. They've scrapped that top one Which is obviously going to get the headlines because everyone's going to be up in arms about oh, it's just a budget for the rich The rich are just going to get richer You know, it's just not fair Blah blah blah that'll be that'll be addition to scrapping bankers bonus caps, right? So yeah, here you go bankers. You can have your massive bonuses back and oh, we won't tax it as much either Press are going to have a field day with this But look, this is a massive massive budget. They're calling it a mini budget. It's the biggest budget I've seen like for years and years. This is properly pivoting like a massive pivot in in policy towards big tax cuts across the piece and you know reducing regulation and unashamedly Going out there with a big aggressive bold very risky move Of how do we sort out our big issues? Well, let's try and do it through big tax cuts, which we think will drive growth They want to grow. They want to grow us out of this problem Um, and look, there are big issues with the uk. I was reading a piece in the ft earlier this week Which was a really good one and raising the the issue around our current account deficit Which is right now a record ever It's the it's we've got the biggest current account deficit ever in our history Going back to when data on this kind of stuff started to be measured. So really it's back to 1955 We right now have the biggest current account deficit. We've had ever on record going back to 1955 So this is a big issue and it kind of ties into I think The problems we have here in the uk and so just Super quickly. What's the current account deficit? Well, it's just looking at the basically think about your current account And right money coming in and money going out, right? So your money coming in if you're working, right? That's your salary coming in and then obviously what you're spending Okay, and if you've got a deficit that means you're just there's more money going out each month Van is coming in and obviously that's not sustainable Um, you have to close that gap and how do you close the gap? Well, it could be through borrowing money or it could be through international investment coming in So the country so what's happened the big widening of the deficit has primarily been driven by the sharp increase in gas prices Because of the russia invasion of ukrain and because the uk import a load of gas and we're very we're more dependent on gas than other European nations for our energy and so this is this is the main reason but underlying all of that is really a slow kind of trend Over the last couple of decades where the uk has just become less and less and less and less competitive less attractive as a as an investment destination and so You know, we're sat here with this monster deficit and the government right now I think they've I think it's part of their plan here is looking at this deficit and going jeez we we need to We need to do something about it. I actually You know this this budget Yes, it's controversial Yes, they are going to get slammed in the press Personally, I think this is brave And I I support it just because we need to shake things up You know, we can't just Keep on shugging along because we're going in the wrong direction. So I think it's bold and it's a big change And and and I like it whether it will work. Sure. It's risky For sure, but they're trying to attract in More foreign investment. I mean the pound is super cheap Um, so that should definitely help, right? So, yeah, we'll see but they're going to get slammed in the press for this Yeah, just having a look on the chart actually sterling has just weakened again Just in the last few moments actually while you are talking You've just knocked the pound lower again by uh a full point actually Yeah It just broke down in price, uh, Maurici. So we're actually trading Just hit lows down in the 110 Yeah, it's it's crazy Now for the for the pound. So the direction of sterling then in in contrast to What's happening as described at the Fed where rates are going to go higher multiple times Compared to stopping at the bank of England as you're suggesting. So what does that mean for the parity outlook here? Well What's interesting just thinking about the currency space a bit more broadly and we'll talk about the yen in a minute But the dollar has obviously been Super super powerfully strong all year And that's because the federal reserve have been aggressively hiking You know faster than most other banks and are expected to continue to hike for longer than most other banks And therefore this monetary policy divergence is driving dollar appreciation against everything What's interesting though is then when you think about the other side of that all right the dollar strengthening We get it But think about the other side of it and you think about the euro and the pound and the yen right and they've all been Super weak versus the dollar now when you think about the euro and the yen Well The ECB have only just started hiking rates So fine the monetary policy divergence is huge. Okay Japan aren't even hiking So that's the absolute maximum divergence right But when you think about the pound you can't say the same thing You can't tell me well there's a massive monetary policy divergence between the Fed and the bank of England because there isn't The the bank of England hiked first And are continuing to hike So there underlies the actual issue for the pound is is not necessarily the monetary policy divergence, although it's a factor It's actually just underlying economic outlook being really bad for the uk And so whilst the the bank of England are hiking The pound's dropping anyway because of that kind of economic situation. So will it Will it hit parity? I'd said to you I think you asked me that I think a few weeks ago and I laughed it off Saying don't don't be silly But here we are 110 handle And I don't know now I I still wow, I want to still stick to my guns and so I don't think we will get to parity but For that view to be right This big move from the uk government has to work quickly And I don't know if it will work quickly these things don't Don't happen quickly. So And given the rate height cycle in the us is likely not to finish until february. Yeah and conditions generally anticipating to deteriorate Europe here For the end of this year in q4 Yeah, if the if the bank of England start do a dovish pivot and start talking about That we're at the peak i.e. We're not going to hike rates anymore And if they even go further and start to think about Into 23 in a recession and starting to think about having to cut they start talking like that in the next one month Then you may well get parity But I don't think they will I don't think they'll be brave enough So I I'm still sitting on my camp on in the camp where we won't get Down to parity dollar against the pain. Okay. I thought you were going to do a goldman's then and flip flop every five minutes All right, so two more things To wrap up on japan as you mentioned has taken action on their currency directly It comes as japan's currency hit a 24 year low And we've talked about this for a while. It wasn't really a case of if but when I guess the worrying thing for japan is the price of dolly yen It's the most common pairing of currencies that the market looks at it was trading at 146 When they intervened it dropped to close to 140 But this morning they're already back up trading a 143 handle So we've reversed 50 of the entire intervention in less than 24 hours Big problem, surely yeah, I mean it's it's like It's like It's like you're there's like this massive juggernaut coming Towards you, right? And that that's the dollar yen Moving and trending and the yen weakening and the dollar appreciating and this juggernaut's coming towards you and the central bank have just stepped out in front of it to try and stop it Except what are they using to try and stop it like some like a toothpick or something? Right the and to put that in numbers Because well firstly, how do they intervene? Well, they've literally directly intervened last time was 1998 so they've literally stepped into the currency market because The japan have foreign currency reserves. They hold a lot of dollars Okay, in fact We think roughly it's about one trillion dollars They have right And what they've done here is they've taken some of these dollars and they've sold the dollars and they bought yen So directly acting in the currency market with a monster trade to force The yen to appreciate because of their market impact with this massive trade. Okay But they've got what they've got about one trillion dollar war chest so they could just carry on trying to intervene and intervene and intervene but To put it into context, do you know the value of the What's the daily average volume that trades dollar yen spot market Average daily volume is 1.1 trillion dollars. Right. So their entire reserve Is less than one single day Of volume it's good stuff.  I mean they they I don't think they Genuinely think They with that single method can just stop this trend What what they're trying to do is create uncertainty. So their tactic is right Don't be transparent. Don't say right. We are going to intervene again On the 10th of october and we will sell You know 10 billion dollars and we'll buy yen and it's going to be on the 10th of october and it's going to be that amount That's not the play. The play is just just don't tell anyone. So it's like we could do it at any moment at any time In whatever volume we like up to a trillion, right, which is a lot So that creates uncertainty and I think what they're trying to do is force out some of the short positions There's obviously a huge amount of open positions in this currency trend following positions and I think they're just trying to spooks them out and they're just trying to Maybe maybe they won't halt the trend, but they're they're going to slow it down Possibly you could argue because of that uncertainty they've introduced And maybe that's enough because they're probably thinking look the fed can't They can't carry on hiking 75 basis points every time Indefinitely, we will reach an end to this fed hawkish pivot, right? So just they've just got to get to that moment in time that moment in time is now a bit further down the track than we thought But you know, it's it's going to come And that's where the rest bite will that that's the only way this currency market will reverse trend Is when the fed changed direction. Yeah That's a great great stat because I think people Who are not people of markets? They often just think the stock market the stock market buying apple shares and tesla That's that's the big market. Yeah, it's a minnow. Oh, yeah Compared to the forex market. Well, there's more money trades through forex than all other assets combined by easily more and look, that's that is actually because It doesn't if you trade anything there's often a currency Transaction ahead of it if I want to buy apple shares Well, I'm in the uk with my pains. Well, apple shares are denominated in dollars I have to change my pains to dollars first Then buy apple shares. Yeah So, yeah Cool, well final thing to wrap up is credit suice and they've had Quite obviously an awful time of it in many different ways of late from scandal to scandal but One of the big things here that I wanted to ask you was this idea of splitting up Is the strategy to less independence on investment banking and pivot towards wealth management And ala ubs in the last decade or so who've done that with success. Yeah, so Just a little bit more about the The idea behind that strategy from your perspective Yeah, I mean, I think the new CEO I should get his name there. I don't know, you know, but he came in in the summer um and and his brief from the board of directors was Be aggressive Make radical change because We're not doing very well and we're kind of on the wrong path. And so, yeah This is about as radical as as you can kind of get it. I would say I think it makes a lot of sense. It's kind of back to their roots It's much lower risk lower volatility kind of revenue streams of wealth management You know going going back to their core and the Uh, they're going to sell off their securitized products business, which is actually based in new york Uh, and actually is their most profitable part of the business um That kind of brings in about three to four billion revenue a year. I think so just just for clarity What is a securitized product? Oh, well, okay. Yeah, it's basically taking loans packaging them up And selling them. So yeah, yeah And that's that sounds like awfully reminiscent of A bygone era. It's massive. It's massive business, right? But it's risky You know as we saw in 2008 Um, if you get yeah, if you get on the wrong side of that that could be super bad So they're they're kind of getting rid of that. Um, that does bring issues for their Tier one capital ratio But we won't delve into that today. But um, so they're getting rid of that securitized products business They're going to then set up a like like a bad bank and put all the toxic stuff and just look Let's just get it off our balance sheet. Let's just stick it over here. Love that Love that financial engineering And then pretend it doesn't exist And then you're left with their core, which is look, let's just get back to the basics You know, let's go back to our roots and it's wealth management, and I think it makes it makes a lot of sense But but yeah, and then an urik kurna who's the guy just come in importantly Guess where he came from uh The regulators side. I don't know he came from UBS having done the transition already He served as a member of the group of executive board for 11 years at UBS I did not know that okay makes it was part of the asset management division right his background um, so Yeah, he's uh He's he's the man for the job if this is the the direction they want to head in couldn't couldn't really pick a better person I guess in that sense. Yeah Um Cool. Well, look, let's wrap it up there Um, thanks as always for everyone for listening And for peers obviously joining me on the on the call Please do check out some of the links in the show notes to our daily newsletter Feel free to connect with with me and peers on linkedin. Obviously, we're here to serve you the community So, you know, if being connected to us can help you broaden your network then absolutely go for it We'd love to we'd love to help Yeah, and if you've got any topics or questions that you'd like us to kind of address or cover What's the best way To get to kind of put questions to us. Yeah, look, um, absolutely happy to have people email me directly So Yeah, I might regret that but my email address is a dot chung. So a dot c h e un g At amplified trading dot com. So hit me with any suggestions any ideas actually reminds me someone did ask us They have to comment on our youtube video saying what is our favorite trading? film Yeah What are you gonna question? I can't mention like lots. You just got to pick one. I can't mention lots. I was going to mention lots, but Well, maybe maybe give the run through of what the library is and then well, I was going to mention my top three. Okay, go on um And probably in order of so in third place on my list margin call Okay Second place You've got to be of an age for this one, uh wall street If your number one is what I think it is your top three is exactly not just the same but the same order as mine Oh, really? Well, it's probably yeah. I mean the best is the best.  Yeah, big short is my favorite Trading places is my favorite. Oh, okay trading places sits right at the top Only about that one. Absolutely hilarious film I actually think they do a pretty good job Explaining what it is that they do these guys. That's great shout. I completely forgot about that But again, we're winding back the years then this was eddie murphy peak in the 80s. It's so good Yeah, basically, yeah go out there. There's your top four go and go and watch them highly recommended Cool. All right. Cheers. Peace Have a good weekend. See you later