Good afternoon, welcome to Plenary Session 5. I'm John Lipsky from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington. And I have the honor of moderating this panel on the politicization of the international system of payments and the future of the international monetary system, a small topic. But happily, we have a truly all-star panel of experts in this field. And I'm sure we're going to have illuminating interesting discussions. They hardly need any introduction. And since we're running late, I don't want to spend too much time other than you can read along with me. Geoffrey Frieding, the government professor from Harvard, Akunari Hori, who was a now special advisor and member of the board of directors of the Cannon Institute for Global Studies, but long stalwart of the Bank of Japan, Professor Helen Ray, Professor of Economics at London's Business School, and of course, well-known in international economic circles for her important work in this area. Sergej Sarchak, Deputy Finance Minister of Russia, and a long veteran of G20 meetings, and where these issues have been discussed. And of course, last and definitely not least, Jean-Claude Trichet, who definitely needs no introduction in this venue. So let me just begin by giving a few basic facts that set the stage for this issue of the future of the international monetary system. One is, of course, the dominance of the US dollar in the US system. A few factoids, global GDP in 2019 at market rates about what in America we'd say $88 trillion, or $88,000 billion, I guess in European parlance. International reserves that are often focused on in this context actually only represent less than $12 trillion or $12,000 billion. In other words, a small percentage of the global GDP. Daily turnover in the forex market this year was estimated by the Bank for International Settlements at $6.6 trillion every day, $6,600 billion every day. In other words, a vastly larger sum than GDP and an incredibly larger sum than international reserves. And according to the BIS, of the daily turnover, 88% of all transactions have the dollar at least on one side. The euro, 32%. The yen, 17%. And a number that may surprise you, China's R&B, 4%. So let me just give a quick potted history of how we got here. The dollar's dominance in the international system began with the end of World War I, but it was formalized in the Brettonwood system, agreed at the end of World War II. That system, a dollar exchange standard, had the dollar at its center. It was intended to be a global system, but the Soviet Union declined, although they participated in the negotiations, declined to participate in the system, instead formed a competing system, Comicon. The dollar's dominance survived the end of the formal Brettonwood system in the sense of move to floating exchange rates, survived the oil shock, survived the Latin debt crisis. And in 1990, with the collapse of the Soviet Union, the entry of China and India into the global trading system began the period of what I call true globalization, and the dollar remained dominant again. Subsequently, came the Tequila crisis, the Latin debt crisis, the mid-'90s, the Asian currency crisis of the late-'90s, the dot-com recession, the bursting of the dot-com bubble, and eventually the global financial crisis of 2007-89. One of the constants of this period was that the US GDP throughout this period was declining as a percent of global GDP, and yet the dollar remained dominant. Two other factors are important here, especially in the context of our theme of the politicization of the system, was the beginning of the use of widespread and often broadly sanctioned sanctions. First, I think in this context what we call FATF, but here it's called the group d'action financier, to combat money laundering and the financing of terrorism, began an effort to put roadblocks that are essentially for political goals, as well as economic policy goals, that have now been ramped up in a unilateral way by the US. So what we look at is trade conflict that the Bass panel just dealt with, also encompassed the use by the US of selective payment sanctions for political reasons, taking advantage of the centrality of the US financial system and the dollar-based system and the US banking system in that context. There was an interesting speech at the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole gathering symposium this year by Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England. He said the old consensus was that flexible inflation targeting and floating exchange rates were the best way to conduct policies. And in that context, that there were modest gains for international policy cooperation. However, a rethinking of the current circumstance focuses on dominant currency pricing that reduces the impact. If everything's priced off of dollars, it reduces the impact of domestic monetary policies and reduces the ability of exchange rates to act as shock absorbers. All of this despite, again, the trend decline of US GDP as a percent of the total. So we now have a much more integrated global rate setting, as has become very clear in the last few years, and a sense of reduced monetary independence on the part of central banks. And a concern that has been quite heightened by the recent economic developments in that the US economy has seemed out of sync with other advanced economies. Growth has been stronger. And hence, if the dollar centrality has been increased in many ways in its impact on the effectiveness of monetary policy elsewhere, the question remains, is this advisable? Mark Carney suggested that in the long run, we would want and need a multipolar international system. He suggested the creation, in fact, of something quite speculative, a synthetic hegemonic currency, which is quite a step. So let me now turn to the panel and ask them to comment on three broad themes. One, or as they wish, but suggest three broad themes. One, what are the elements that have explained the dollar's continued dominance in the context of the US economy shrinking, not absolutely, but in relative terms, relative to the rest of the economy? Is it, should we expect, as a matter of course, that eventually that shrinkage, relative shrinkage, will tend to diminish the dollar's dominance? And where is the system likely to go, and where should it go? We're going to ask for commentary across the panel. Start with Jeffrey. Great. Thank you, John. Well, as John has pointed out, the dollar maintains and has maintained its dominance in international monetary relations, international trade and payments. And there are a variety of reasons, many of which John mentioned. It's due to its historical reserve currency role. It's due to its usefulness as a vehicle currency for international trade and payments. It's due to network externalities, so that the more people use the dollar, the greater the incentive to use the dollar, and things along those lines. But I'm going to focus on a somewhat different angle, which is perhaps, I hope, at least within my comparative advantage, as a political economist rather than an economist, which is that it also depends on features of America's domestic monetary and financial conditions. The expectation of monetary stability in the US, the expectation of a commitment, the expectation of financial depth that is a broad and deep financial market, and the expectation of a high level of financial and commercial openness. All of these, I think, have been important to the international role of the dollar. The expectation that the Fed and the American Monetary and Financial Authorities would stand behind both the value of the currency and the openness of America's financial market. All of these are highly political. Dollar dominance has rested, in large part, in my view, on the expectation that the American political order would protect and defend the real value of the US currency, that it would protect and defend the stability and the openness of its financial system. And I think that theory and history both tell us that these are central to the international role of any currency, including the dollar. And I think that this focus, by the way, on the importance of domestic politics and the political support for monetary stability for an open financial system for financial stability, helps explain the difficulties of the euro, given the unsettled nature of the politics of money and finance within the euro zone, and the difficulties of the Chinese currency, the RMB, given the non-transparent nature of politics in China, and significant doubts about the stability of the country's financial institutions. So it is the domestic, the political will of the American authorities that I think, in many ways, stands behind the willingness of people around the world to continue to use the dollar. Now, for the first time since the 1930s, as the panel earlier, the previous panel points out, for the first time since the 1930s, there are some really significant questions being raised about the extent to which the United States is, in fact, committed to the core principles that have underpinned the international role of the dollar. This is worrying for anyone who is concerned both about the dollar, but more generally about the international monetary and financial system. And fortunately or unfortunately, we have some historical precedent. In the 1920s and early 1930s, the US was the world's largest lender, the world's largest foreign direct investor, the world's largest trading nation. It was also deeply committed to isolationism, therefore deeply hostile to international economic cooperation to the extent that Congress prohibited any agent of the American government to participate in international economic conferences. The weakness of the international monetary, commercial, financial order of the interwar period, in my view, stems in large part from the fact that its most important player was non-involved politically and, in many ways, hostile to international cooperation. And I'm sorry to say, and to agree with Marcus Nolan and some of the others on the previous panel, that it looks like the US, certainly it has gone back in that direction, and there are important indications that it may continue to move in that direction. So that leads us to your final question, or one of your final questions, which is can the international monetary system go on if confidence in American political stability and American economic and financial leadership erodes, and specifically to the case of sanctions, if fears about the politicization of the payment system grow? My answer would be sure it can go on. And we have, in a very small way, a bit of a precedent, which is the Cold War. During the Cold War, because the Soviets were concerned, Soviets and their allies were concerned, about the politicization of the payment system, they began parking in their dollar reserves in London banks, which they felt were off limits, or probably off limits to the American authorities, and to protect them from potential seizure by the American authorities. The results were the euro markets, the offshore markets, which have become the basic form of contemporary international finance. So there are workarounds that people can come up with on the payment side. But if this is going to be a longer term phenomenon that affects not just the Soviets, or not just one segment of the international order, and involves an American withdrawal, in some sense, from this leadership position, or it's making its leadership contingent on playing by American rules, then it presents a problem for the other members of the OECD, or the G7, or the G20. In my view, those countries could, if they wanted to, create both a financial system and a payment system that bypasses the US. It would be costly, it would be difficult, but it's doable. Is it a good thing? In my view, no. Because we lose a substantial amount of the scale and history, the history of stability, that I, at least, would associate with the US dollar. But we have to take stock of what has been happening in the US and some of the trends that have been talked about, for example, in the previous panel in the United States. What if reality, what if the reality of American politics continues to give us a United States that is unreliable, that is populist, that is economically nationalistic, that is geopolitically aggressive? Then, I think, the world has no choice to move forward without the US. And sadly, as an American, I'm very sorry to say that the probability that the US continues to move in this direction is not zero. Thanks. Okay, thank you. Please. The international monetary system has been one of my most favorite topics of discussion since the 1980s when I was an economist at the BIS. Actually, I published a paper, BIS economic paper entitled Reserve Currency Diversification in 1986. And things have hardly changed over the decades. So, let me explain. And some of the statistics have already been mentioned by John and partly Jeff. I hope you can read the table, maybe too small for you. That table is taken up from the central bank survey conducted by 53 central banks and aggregated by the BIS every three years. And as John said a few minutes ago, daily turnover of global forex market amounted to 6.6 trillion dollars. And the BIS shows its currency distribution by percentages whose total being 200% rather than 100% because exchange takes a pair. On that basis, because the table is so small, let me pick up some statistics. As John said, the dollar captures 88% in the 2019 survey, this year's survey. Dollar's proportion remained virtually unchanged at 90 or a little less since the BIS began its survey in 1989. The first column says what, 88 or 89 or something. The second and third currencies actively traded on the forex market, the euro and the Japanese yen. To the left, and in 1989, there was no profit and no euro, of course. I combined the Deutsche Mark, French Franc and other EMS currencies to come up with a number of hypothetical euro in 1989, 33% while the euro actually captured 32% in 2019. Big change by one percentage point. The yen had a share of 27% in 1989, the peak of the bubble economy of Japan, which dropped to 17% by 2007. That is not shown in that table. But Japanese yen's number has since fluctuated around 20. In short, the currency market hardly changed, as I said, as far as distribution of major currencies are concerned. Now, let's look at the emerging markets, economies, currencies. In 2001, the renminbi ranked 35 on the currency league table with an negligible percentage share, but moved up to eight with 4.3% share in 2019. Big increase. Other emerging economies also increased percentage shares as illustrated on the graph on the right bottom panel. Big increase, but the numbers are small, anyway. So despite these salient increases, however, the presence of emerging market currencies is still pretty small in contrast to the size of their GDP and international trade of goods and services. Now, let's discuss the qualifications of the international currency. Jeff Franco, Peter Kennan, and all those academic experts pointed out several conditions. Number one, economic size. Number two, developed financial markets. Number three, confidence in the value of the currency. Number four, inertia. That's the favorite, you know. First of all, the economic size, but economic size does not immediately entail wide international of the use of the currency. The US dollar, for example, it was in the late 19th century that the US economy overtook the UK economy and so did German economy, actually. But both the US dollar and Reichsmark failed to impress the market. And at that time, Pound Stirling continued to be the international currency. Jeff pointed out the US politics mattered in that regard because of US isolation policy. It may be true, here's a point. But I think demand side elements also matter. In my opinion, market confidence matters a lot for an actively used international currency. It's not only a confidence in the value of the currency, but confidence in its integrity that matters. You know, the integrity of the currency is maintained only when it functions properly as a means of exchange, unit of account, and store value. To be a little more specific, the monetary authorities have to create and maintain a system so as to ensure reliable means of payment, wide, deep financial markets, supported by many down-to-earth elements. For example, banknote counterfeit deterrence capabilities, legal stability, and the transparency of rules and regulations, as well as low enforcement capability over financial fraud and wrongdoings, and last but not least, the political and economic independence of the central bank from both domestic and international pressures. So, now let me turn to potential competitors of the US dollar. First, the renminbi. It's so obvious to me that there is a long, long way for the Chinese currency to go before it gains confidence in the market on all the accounts I discussed. In my opinion, it is highly unlikely that the renminbi becomes the vehicle currency in the market this century, maybe next century. Okay, what about the euro? Of course, the euro has a natural appeal, and in fact, it's the second international currency. But in order for the euro to play a bigger role, its financial markets need to become much wider and deeper. German bonds markets, French treasure market are the most actively traded markets in euros at the moment, but the sizes are small. And liquidity are a thing in comparison with the US treasury market and JGB's market. I think governments within the EU could begin to appeal the market by issuing common euro bond, of course. They don't have to create a big project of consolidation of all individual countries or budget, whatever. I think they could begin by issuing a Euro-denominated bond collectively, covering a small part of EU common budgets, like common defense or refugees assistance or space program, whatever. Before encompassing a wide array of the budgets, okay, I have actually argued this point for a long, long time with my colleagues in the European central banking circles. But to our regret, little progress has been made. I'm sorry. What about the SDR and others? I suffice it to quote Charles Kindelberger, who I remember referred to the SDR as the artificial language Esperanto in finance. And gold he compared with Latin, okay? And US dollar with English, okay. So I thought that that analogy was pithy and I continue to do so after three decades. I'm afraid I'm spent most of the allotted time, but last word for maybe 30 seconds. I'd like to discuss what Jeff Frieden discussed a few minutes ago. It's not Mr. Trump. Several years ago, the US government under President Obama tried to use its cloud over a global financial system as economic sanction against Russia and Iran. It was reported then that the US might even try to limit Russian banks access to Swift, the global message transfer system. Even before Mr. Trump became potus, the Chinese began to worry about the possibility of its application to China and tried to modernize RemMB payment and settlement systems and widening the scope for international use of the RemMB. In recent years, Chinese concerns have become greater. For example, Yu Yunding, my friend and former member of the PBOC monetary committee, wrote an article on a Japanese magazine in July this year saying that the US might deprive Chinese banks of their access to Swift or chips in New York. So he said China should be internationalized for RemMB. Okay. So let me stop here. Elaine. Thank you very much, John. I think what is truly remarkable is that even though Bretton Woods essentially collapsed with a run out of the dollar, ever since 1973 in effect, if anything, the dominance of the dollar as a reason in international financial system. And we have seen a lot of figures. I won't come back on these figures. But I think it's certainly due both to phenomena linked to network externalities and all that, but also simply to the complementarity that is very present in the use of an international currency, complementarity between the different use of a currency. If you are financing in a currency, then you want liquidity in that currency. You transact in that currency, then you want to exchange rate to be paid in that currency. When your central bank has reserved in that currency, then the transaction costs are low in that currency, et cetera, et cetera. So there are complementarities both within the private sector and across the public sector and the private sector. And this makes an equilibrium very, very hard to change. We have seen that with sterling. We are seeing that with a dollar. Now, does it matter? So in fact, if anything, I think the current research in economics, in academia, shows that it matters even more than what we thought in the past. So there are lots of papers now that show that this business about dominant currency invoicing, the fact that a lot of goods are invoiced in dollar, is very important for monetary policy. It's also important for the volume of global trade. We see this amazing correlation at this stage. I would still call them correlation between the valuation of a dollar. So for example, a dollar strengthening and the decline in global volume of trade. And the effects of these correlations are big. So that's one. We also see these big effects of a Fed on global financial condition, the global financial cycle. And that actually affects everyone. So I would say if anything, it seems to matter more from an economic point of view than maybe what we thought before. Now, there's also obviously, and we have seen this in the 2008 crisis, the international lender of last resort function, which has proved, I would say, pretty crucial. 600 billion dollar liquidity, which went in central bank swaps to help the international financial system. And obviously, so that was not the IMF because the IMF cannot print dollars. That was the Fed, which is providing the liquidity. And that means a lot from the point of view of geopolitical power, also from the point of view of economic benefits. So the system has been relatively stable since the Second World War with one hegemon, the US dollar and the United States. And I guess Charles Kindleberger would agree that that's hegemonic stability for you. And that seems to have worked to some extent. But now, how long is it gonna last? I guess it's a big question, right? And there I see so two reasons why things might be changing. And then I will be very brief about where we might be going. So the two reasons are one, which has already been mentioned here, which is that things are stable if you have a relatively quasi benevolent hegemon. Now, if you have a hegemon who starts being over politicizing the currency and really using it for all kinds of purposes, trust evaporates, and that tends to speed up the exit of a currency equilibrium. And we certainly see that, right now, I would say. So that's one factor. A second factor is a little bit more of a trend. And that's what I call the new Triffin Dilemma. So let me tell you what was the Triffin Dilemma. And then I will tell you what the new Triffin Dilemma, so we'll see if you agree with me. So the original Triffin Dilemma, it was in the 1960s, and it was Robert Triffin, was professor at Yale at the time, was explaining that if you have a fixed, or more or less fixed reserve of gold in the United States, and the dollar was backed by gold and picked at a fixed parity, well, even liquidity in dollars in the rest of the world was growing and growing. Eventually, if people wanted their dollars back into gold, there wouldn't be enough gold for everyone, essentially, and therefore that can create a crisis of confidence. You start to think that your dollar is not gonna be worth the parity in gold because there's just not enough gold reserves. Hence a possible run out of a dollar, which did happen, so Triffin essentially predicted it in some sense, and that was the collapse of Bretton Woods, and there was a run out of a dollar into Deutsche Mark, et cetera. Now, we don't have any more an international monetary system backed by a commodity. We just, just not the way it works. We have flexible exchange rate and fiat currencies. However, if you think about what is the confidence in the dollar, well, essentially, it's the fiscal backing of the currency. People still want dollars as a result of currency because in crisis times, and we have seen it in 2008 very much, and we still see it, when things go badly, the value of a dollar, if anything goes up, okay, and we might even fly to safety in the dollar. And this is because of the credibility in a sense of the fiscal backing of the United States. So now picture yourself a world in which we have fiscal capacity of the US, okay, and we have a relative size of the US going tremendously down in the world economy. So now we have a lot of liquidity outside the US, a lot of dollar liquidity in the world. There's a huge demand for US treasuries, as we know, but we have this shrinking hegemon in the middle. The relative size of the US goes down. Now, at some points, clearly, I think there will be also a confidence crisis. There just won't be enough fiscal support to back this whole dollar liquidity in the world economy. Now when will that happen? I have no idea. And of course, also for the crisis of confidence to realize itself, you need to be able to run out of the dollar into something else, okay? And this is where I go to the third point. So I do believe we are gonna go to a more multipolar world because of this fundamental trend and also given the behavior of the current government in the US when I don't know, but so what will be the possible substitutes there? So clearly, number two, the euro. Okay, what's missing from the euro right now? A safe asset. It's missing to complete the financial architecture of a euro area, okay? So for a euro to become a more important currency, we miss the same thing that would make the euro area more stable. So that would be a policy goal. And I think it had been neglected, but I think Europeans are becoming a little bit more aware of that and there's a lot more attention given to these matters, at least I hope now. So that's the euro story. The R&B. The R&B clearly varies the political will. As we've seen from the data, we're still way below what it would require for an international currency to be viable, prime of convertibility, liquidity of market, et cetera. But there's clearly a push from the Chinese authority. And given the size of China, I think if there is, at some point, things start to move, they could move actually maybe quicker than we expect. And one reason for that was that for the moment, maybe we see a whole area in the world economy which is more or less pegging to the dollar, stabilizing section rate vis-a-vis the dollar. But by doing so, it's also stabilizing its exchange rate vis-a-vis China because they are shadowing a little bit each other. And if at some point we see a decoupling between China and the dollar, it could be that actually the true economic area because of the trade links, et cetera, is a Chinese economic area rather than the dollar one. And so this could actually speed things up maybe quicker than we think. But we are still not there for sure. And then I would just say one last thing, which is we've seen recently some contests coming from the private sector. Libra will probably not happen. We don't know, but other things like that. So why? Because these things build on an existing network. Of course, they lack any of the good functions of money, et cetera. So again, I don't think it's a viable proposition. But at least in terms of scale, I think that's something that is really new because of the existing network which could right away play in the medium of exchange function. But of course doesn't have any fiscal backing. This is why by the way the synthetic hegemonic, or the synthetic hegemonic currency of Marconi, which is like an SDR, but with digital currency, is also not gonna fly. Because for the same reason the SDR did not fly, because it doesn't have a liquidity provision and the fiscal backing. Sir. Thank you, John. With your permission before I make some comments, I would like to ask the audience one question. Does everyone agree that national currency, which has been used and circulated within the national border, is a public good? I think everyone is agree with this. It can be, it should be. So if it is positive answer on the basis of previous speakers said, can we declare with some thinking standard about that US dollar is a global public good? Unfortunately for many of people the answer under recent conditions, under recent circumstances, under the figures shown on the screen, the answer can be only positive. Yes, we can like it or dislike it, but US dollar is a global public good. So shall we blame the dollar itself for different kinds of policy actions and utilization of the currency by different people, by different authorities? I don't think sure that we should blame the dollar itself. It is an X, which can be used either for constructing houses or taking lives. The same story with the dollar. So based on this observation I can see that the biggest issue for multi-polar world, for multilateral relationship, is the responsibility of those who issue the reserve currencies. In nowadays it's not only one single currency, but in principle, the responsibility of authorities of reserve currency economy or reserve currency nation. So we can speak about substitution. Dollar for Rambi, dollar for Europe, dollar for everything, but the responsibility will rest with the authority. So my judgment at this point is that what we are really need is to start working on the rules, principles, high level principles, guidelines, we can call it differently, on the behavior or reserve currency nation. So the movement towards that directions will save us quite a lot of energy at least. Because when we substitute we will have the same story, whether on which way the national currency as reserve currency have been used by national authorities. So we are living in the world when the title of our panel, when the monetary system, or I would better say that infrastructure, for a financial infrastructure of one particular country is being used as a political weapon. It's really a bad story. So what is happening and we somehow need to accommodate to it and we are accommodating. For example, there's decisions to develop a special payment system within European Union in order to make settlements with trade, when we are trading with Iran. There's decisions are taken by Central Bank of Russia to decrease the portion of US treasury in our international reserves. So it can be done in different way, but what is really interesting about US dollars, you cannot escape the fact that the biggest invoicing is taking place in US dollar. It is easy to speak about the international trade in general, but what was much more important, it's invoicing. You can make settlement in any different countries, as happening in my case, for example, we allow our obliges, our debtors, for example, when we grant state credits to foreigners, pay whatever they want, rubles, euros, dollars, whatever, but invoicing stealing the dollars. Even when we speaking about with new financial institutions as new development banks set up by BRICS nations, Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank set up by China and others. What's happened at the end that the authorized capital, paid in capital, all are nominated in dollars? So that's why we are living within this framework. So a couple of examples of how guidelines or principles of responsible behavior of reserve currency nation can look like. Just one first principle is keep your own house in order. I mean economic and financial house in order. The second principle, not harm the interests of economic agents. The biggest harm comes from the so-called secondary nations. When you see economic agents are suffering in the cases where they have nothing to do with the foreign policy, with the aims and wishes of the nation who is under the sanctions. And yeah, there's a number of other things can be put as the principles for responsible behavior. Do we have examples that we can cooperate within on multilateral level, on multilateral level in the directions I just described? Yes, we have very good ones. The best one is the international cooperation on taxation. Just recently results, very politically touching issue. I mean taxation, the way it is being paid, where it is being paid to him. But we agree, we agree within OECD within G20 and the agreement, multilateral agreement is being implemented by all without any pressure. Every nations take their responsibility by themselves. So I finish this, but with the hope that my position is being well understood. Thank you. Thank you. Well, we've had an interesting set of different views. Every speaker has emphasized a different aspect. And now we come to Jean-Claude, the one of us who's actually been there, seen it and done it. And can speak with an authority. I don't know. Whether I will speak with authority. I share, of course, many of the views that have been expressed. I have six points I would like to make first, but very rapidly. First, it is absolutely true that we have a currency which is an edgaman in the present system, but it is not entirely unipolar. And then I am a little bit, I would say, out of the emerging consensus. And of course, we should not forget that the structure of the system changed dramatically, I would say overnight in January 99 when we created the euro. Because before you had one currency, the edgaman, 10 times more important depending on your criteria than the other. And that is a system where you can say, well, you don't need to be a great mathematician to see that it has a structure which is a totally different nature from the present system where you have an edgaman, a number two, which is five times the number three, and which is only three times less important than the demand one. So we change dramatically, in my opinion, the system of the international currency. So everybody knows the figure. They have been set for X 60, 20, 4%, international debt 60, 22%, international loans 60, 20. That is the new structure. Now, that being said, when I look at the global payment currency, I have different figures which are illustrating the fact that the euro indeed exists. 45% for the dollar, 34% for the yen. That is the proportion in global payment currency according to the BIS. So why is there such a difference between the global payment currency and for X international debt, international loans? Despite the fact that the trends are a little bit different from what was coming out of the discussion until now. When you look at the figures, you see that the dollar had 70%, at the very beginning, the day we created the euro. It was 70% in reserve currencies. The euro was as computed as was done by here, our eminent colleague, 19, so the same level as today in adding up all the currencies. Today it is still 20, but the dollar came from 70 to 60, 62. And all other currency gained market share. So there is a trend which is not negligible at least according to that criteria of reserve currency which is not hurting the euro but is hurting a little bit the dollar as I just underlined. So still, of course, the dollar is an achievement. Easter is this has been mentioned very wisely as regards the reason why when you have had the central position, you keep the central position for a long time, I was amazed myself to see that the copper was traded in sterling until 93, aluminum until 87, tea until 92, coffee until 92, long, long, long after World War II. And if not too misinformed, cocoa only after 2015. So Easter is this is there. And of course it's associated with complementarity but also with the easiness that you have to continue to have the same unique of account if the currency itself remains liquid, of course. Now there is another reason which is dominating and our colleagues were all very eloquent on that. Of course, what counts is your currency but also the signature behind the currency. The treasuries, if you take the benchmark, the other signatories. And there, of course, we are at a fantastic disadvantage in Europe because it's true that the difference between the volume of the treasuries is very, very important. The daily trading of treasuries in volume in New York is $500 billion. And the equivalent in Germany, in France, in Italy would be approximately the 125th of that level. So we are in totally different universe. Only the creation of a new safe bond would create an element of death and liquidity on the Euro market, which would permit to accelerate the transition. And that is really the point. The point is not that the currency has defect, in my opinion. The currency, frankly speaking, I take it as no defect. But the problem, of course, is that the signatories behind the currency are not the same. Even if you have already Euro bonds, the bonds that are issued by the ESM, for instance, or the EIB are good signatories, but of course it is a very small amount. Now, shall I deplore the fact that we are not at 50-50 vis-à-vis the US dollar? Certainly not, because had it been the case, what would have been the consequence on the exchange market? Which kind of skyrocketing of the Euro vis-à-vis the dollar would we have registered? Unless, of course, it would have been organized with special accounts, the IMF behind, and so forth. But if we are in the universe where we are in a free behavior of market participants, of course it would have been a total catastrophe. So we would have become totally out of cost competitiveness, if I may, in the global trade. So I am not unhappy with the way it proceeds. It's a big transformation, but a progressive one. Now, that being said, is it because of the fact that the Euro is not yet an international currency of the size of the dollar, that we have problem with Iran, that we have problem with the sanctions of the US, and so forth, I don't trust it is the case. I trust the problem is that the United States for cultural reason and political reason does not hesitate to blackmail all those who are not participating in the sanctions. And when I look at all the European firms, it is not because they could not settle their trade in dollar that they interrupted totally their trade with Iran. It was because they would lose a lot in their own interest in the United States of America and more largely in the world because the US had a lot of legal capacity to tease them. So again, the main problem we have, in my opinion, in Europe, if we reason on the Europe balancing the US is of a political nature, both the treasuries and the safe bonds, which are not there, and the geopolitical capacity to say, if you blackmail us, then we will blackmail you. And let's agree that there is no reason that you would impose us, in particular, your own sanctions. It seems to me that it is there that we have the real problem. Iran, the recent experience of trying to create a special vehicle to bypass the US dollar proved that it was not the problem. We have no problem to bypass the dollar. We have a real problem to bypass the capacity of the US to impose legally its sanctions everywhere. Now we have stopped there, if you permit, John, because I would have some... Can I have two more minutes? Please, go ahead. So on the future of the system, as many of the speakers I trust that, of course, the renminbi, when it is fully convertible and when there is a clear will to participate with full convertibility in the international monetary system, we will have necessarily a large multipolar world and that would be, again, probably sooner than we think, but we are far away, nevertheless, in terms of conditions to be a real international currency. How will we run that? There are several possible assumptions. We could run that as we have run the so-called hegemon, but nevertheless, with G5 or G7, whatever, from time to time, giving some indications to the market that the dollar is going too low or the dollar is going too high and I participated in all the such agreements. They are very important. They are useful. They were not necessary in the most recent period of time because for reasons that are extremely complex, the international system, the currencies were relatively stable, even in the worst crisis ever since World War II. So this is something which academia is looking at, but I have no convincing conclusion to understand why we were not trapped in one of these large fluctuations that we had before, and that is an open question. But, of course, we can imagine that the four, the five major currencies would, from time to time, give some indications of what they see and tell the market, as we did in the Louvre agreement, in many such agreements. The last one was the Japanese G7, G5 agreement where we gave market important indications and I was very happy myself to participate in this message to do the market. We could imagine to have a basket of currencies and the SDR perhaps could be, if there is a private SDR market, I mean, it means a lot of will to arrive to that consequence. I don't exclude totally that, and it seems to me that the fact that the same definition of price stability is now the definition of the major issuing currencies for the present basket of SDR, Rinminbi being a part, but the four of them have more or less the same definition of price stability. It is something which has not been looked at very carefully but is very important in my understanding. And of course, I eliminate, I have to say, the possibility of the bank or, and I don't trust that a digital currency, if it is not backed by either a central bank or a pool of central banks, could float. You would really need behind those institutions or this institution, which would be responsible for the currency to have all the three characteristics which were mentioned by Jeff and our Aristotelian definition of a currency, if I'm not misled, the three that you have mentioned. Thank you. Okay, we have a little time left, unfortunately, but let's turn to the audience for questions. We'll gather up questions and let's start over here. Mike, please. Please stay to who you are and your question and please make it a question and brief. Hi, thank you very much. My name is Randy. I come from Paris and I study at Le Corp de Min, which is a public policy program, basically. Thank you very much for your talk. And most of you have mentioned the challenge of trust and indeed, since the last financial crisis, we've seen a crisis of trust in the monetary system and the rise of ICOs, cryptocurrencies. And my question is, do you believe that such technologies are more as a threat or an opportunity for the existing system and especially should we regulate them more or should we leave them as they are? Thank you very much. Thank you. Over here. Thank you very much. That's almost the MB professor from Japan. Fascinating debate, but I'm completely amateur. But the one issue I like to ask Mr. Horizan, you talked about something very interesting, independence of central bank from domestic or international pressures. But I think most of central banks have become hostage to the government needs to reinvent economy, all sorts of things. But if you may, if you pick up top three most independent central bank in the world, and why? Thank you. Final question over here. Thank you. Volker Peres from Germany. Totally naive question by someone who doesn't understand anything about monetary policy. Would I be totally wrong in assuming that there has never been a hegemonic or reserve currency that wasn't backed up by a very strong military force? I've learned a lot about what the reasons are for the hegemonic position of the dollar, but the military was never mentioned. So I'm just asking that. And if it is not totally wrong, what would that mean for the future of the monetary system, particularly if the euro wants to get in? Thank you. Thank you. Okay. Anybody want to comment on the crypto issue? Jean-Claude. Very simple. I would say that it is not the absence of trust in the existing currency which has created the try on the crypto currencies. I think it's technology. Technology is galloping so rapidly that with a number of fantastic innovation, it appeared that you could run payments and transactions at a very low cost with blockchain and so forth. So it seems to me that it is something which is quite natural. I don't interpret that as an absence of trust for traditional currencies. And as far as trust is concerned, the Bitcoin you could see goes up and down, up and down. That was more of a speculative instrument. The try to launch a basket digital then proves that you have to be backed by those traditional currencies that are behind. Elaine, you wanted to say something. Yes. So I think one has to be careful to distinguish between crypto currencies and in particular the blockchain technologies like Bitcoin or Ethereum which have to do with proof of work which in my view are totally harmful and have zero essentially public good aspect to them. Why are they zero public good? They are very bad medium of exchange because the transaction costs are extraordinary high from an energy point of view for environmental impact is absolutely disastrous. They don't solve any problem. I mean there was, you know, we have pretty good medium of exchange with one exception. I will talk about that in a second. But these things are used to mostly for, you know, the dark net. So there's, I would say it's negative from the social welfare point of view and these things should be for sure not connected to the official system and essentially regulated out. That's very different from digital currencies. Central banks could issue digital currencies and this is absolutely fine and some central banks are very far along with that. Now, why is there some kind of need maybe to have some digital currencies or to make some improvement for cross-border transactions? We are still not doing very well. We are doing extremely well for transaction within the URL. We have extremely good technology, etc. But for cross-border payment, there's still too much of fees which are taken there by the financial system and as a result there are some private actors which may come in. Last thing I want to say about that, one has to distinguish between the technology to do this cross-border transaction and the willingness to create a new currency such as the Libra. Technology can be good. Willingness to create a private currency, in my view, that again should be looked at extremely carefully because what does the currency provide? I mean a public currency issued by central banks. We use it for macro-policy stabilization and we are careful about financial stability. What is the goal of a private company? Profitability. The public good dimension there is absolutely not there. So we have to be extremely careful with that and distinguish between technology and creating a new currency. Thanks. Is somebody, an economic historian among us, have a comment on the military? I could fake it. Of course military influence is playing a big role. No question about this. But I think what really happened after the Second World War II is the fact that the dollar was the only currency which can be converted into goods. And the convertibility nowadays plays a big role in international transactions. But if there's no convertibility into goods, meaning that you cannot buy what you want when you possess the currency, it would not help you with any military forces. Thank you. There actually is a connection between the two questions because what makes a currency valuable or valid in international payments is the ability of those using it to turn it into real goods and services. And that's why Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are purely speculative. Their value is only based on what people think their value will be in the future. Frequent flyer miles have more trust than Bitcoin because at least American Airlines and United stand behind frequent flyer miles. The military angle is related in the sense that military power is connected to the ability of a government to mobilize resources. And so there's a direct connection between military and broader geopolitical power and the expectation that the government will be willing and able to stand behind the currency. After all, there's trust in the Swiss franc and its stability, but the country is way too small to exercise the kind of power necessary to provide an international currency that is the resources to act as a lender of last resort and provide this public good function that people have been talking about. Did you have a final comment? Before commenting on the central bank's independence, let me see a few words on each alternative to the dollar. First, to Jean-Claude, Euro's market is thinner, as I said. I was a reserve manager of Japan. When I tried to buy 500 million dollars Trezot or Buntsma, Bunts by one shot, that action would move quotations that's counterproductive. But JGB, U.S. Trezols, so if you have joint markets, no such effects. Okay. Reminbi, even Chinese want to get a Chinese currency to place their wealth outside the country. How can foreigners believe in the integrity of Reminbi? Simple. SDR has no client base at all because international investors, they can create their own baskets of currency.  But no one is interested in the currency basket SDR. Until now. Until now. Now, central bank independence, it's a long story. It will take hours. Exactly. I could perhaps answer him biologically. I would put the ECB in the three, most independent central bank because the question was, what are the three most independent? Very good. Okay. Well, thanks very much to the panel. They think we can... Let me draw a brief conclusion. Very simple. You heard the old adage, you can't fight something with nothing. And right now, there's a something, it's the U.S. dollar, and there's nothing else ready now. So a sense that for now, the system will remain dollar-centric. A sense that there are lots of reasons to wonder if it could remain this way in the future, but unclear exactly where that leads. It's not obvious what will happen. Mark Carney, in his speech quoted Rudy Dornbush, Rudy Dornbush of MIT, is saying, changes usually take longer than you ever imagine until they actually occur when they happen faster than you thought possible. Could happen here, but Rudy, wonderful as he was, was not a very good policy predictor. Thank you all. And thanks to our panelists.


Welkom back to the touchline here. I'm Robert Osoro here on Y254. It is the touchline. If you're just joining us, you can also join us on social media at Y254 at Mirumbi Osoro is where you can find us here for the touchline. A very beautiful Saturday afternoon that will be giving all the Jewish stories that are coming out of the Tokyo 2020 Olympics. It's rather that name stayed like that because the competition was slated to be stated on 2020 but because of the COVID-19 it had to be brought to 2021. But we still call it Tokyo Olympics 2020. It was going to be a very good year for Kenya considering the first ever Olympic title that came to Kenya was won back in 1964 in the 800 meter, 1000 meter yard and it was won by Wilson Kuprogut. He was supposed to be flying the Kenyan flag but because there are no spectators allowed on to the stadium he could not get a chance to get on to Kenya. But so far the medals have started streaming in China already has got two medals. Three medals so far with the two gold medals and one bronze. Japan comes second with two medals so far one gold and one silver. Ecuador has one gold so far Iran also one gold but Kenya we still haven't started our game will be back and that medal table will be changing anytime soon. But for now we are going to talk about everything that has been happening in the NBA finals where the Milwaukee Bucks won against the Phoenix Sands to lift the title for the first time in 50 years. But also the Kenyan lioness the ladies basketball team also coming back to qualifying for coming back actually and qualified for the Afro basketball finals that will be stated in Kigali Rwanda. Joining me to discuss more about this season of basketball we're still having here Taira Uwayaki and I'm still chilling with him and also joining us is the one and only Sami Kitai. Sami how are you? I'm doing okay. It has been a wonderful week of basketball definitely. Started off with the Kenyan lionesses on Sunday evening and then we had games five and six of the NBA finals. I'm a happy man finally I can get some sleep. You can get some sleep because the games are happening way on to the night. Did AJ Afro the Kenyan ladies how they were playing their basketball? Yeah he did catch a few games in there and especially the final them playing against Egypt. We all know the story about 2019 what happened in there and so it was a sweet revenge for the girls and it was good to see them actually keep the lead because the last time they played in the group stages they lost after having a 25 point lead at half time and then the lead dindal and they lost by a point so it was good to see them get through from how they started the tournament they started on a bad note losing to Rwanda winning against South Sudan and then losing again to Egypt. It was good to see them now get the revenge again win against Rwanda and win against Egypt. Some of the players in there that probably caught my eye we talk about a girl like Victoria Reynolds who plays in the United States she was absolutely incredible and was awarded the MVP. Yes same case to Phelmas Koranga and Masi Wanyama too. Those players were really integral for the lionesses and I'm really happy to see them actually now qualify to the Afro basketball tournament together with the morons. You gotta give a chance to the U.S. best what was her name Phelmas Koranga and Victoria Reynolds coming on for the Kenya lioness. They really brought a certain impact and added to the flair of our local game in this championship. Well they definitely did and as I said earlier these are the things that make us proud to be Kenyan it's not much that does you proud to see them do so and in such remarkable fashion turn the tables against recent history That's a sure delight and let me point out that having been born a bit earlier than most youth of today and then grown up in the 80s this is quite a new phenomenon it used to be men dominating spots but over the years we have now seen our sisters stake their claim at very high levels and really emerge as people who are taking Kenya to the next level and I told you earlier over the last three olympics we've won 42 medals more than half of those have been won by our sisters so this this is stuff to be proud of I remember when I was in third form 1996 when Pauline Konga won Kenya's first ever olympic medal that was big news and it was a bit of a culture shock I know that may not sound politically correct now but back then believe you me it was unheard of so to see this progress and to see it across the spots not just in basketball we have a kenya sevens team of men at the tokyo olympics we also have one of the ladies we have the kenyan heat squad as it used to be known our boxers a contingent there in tokyo of men and we also have one of ladies and Christine Ongara is one of our sure prospects for any medal if you've ever told our ladies we'll get to win anything in boxing so I'm very proud to see this in those games that the kenya basketball team was in you've got to give a chance to the Koranga Reynolds and also Masi Wanyama also came in she was also another integral part of the team yeah and that was the difference because the team was consisted of many local players in New York even the captain playing for KPA she used to talk yeah and she was talking about how they need to get a few players from abroad who can come with a little bit of experience yes and that's what we found with Victoria Reynolds especially because she's been a champion in college and again talking about even the family thing she her father is actually Mike Wanjara who was in the 93 squad that played in the afro basketball tournament for kenya and I think they finished fourth place in there so it's been 28 years and she was happy it was a debut came in scored around 25 points in the final and one MVP same case to Felmas Koranga she was the top scorer for our kenyan team scoring over 89 points in the whole tournament yes and it was lovely to see them actually come together and also when you talk about some of the things falling in place and falling in order you're talking about even the technical benches being combined when you talk about the kenya morans and the kenya lionesses all the coaches came together a brilliant combination of great minds in basketball and they were able to come up from the slump that they had in the first two games and then even the logistics no one has complained about maybe they didn't have the right material they didn't get into the bubble quite earlier so it was lovely to see everything go on smoothly and I hope they can do much better in the afro basketball championship just a quick update on what is happening at the tokyo olympic game so far our kenyan captain commander nick okoth has actually lost two three to mongolian edenbat zenbata in their men's featherweight round of 32 preliminaries contest so nick okoth has lost that one there but it is not always undone we are just the start and we are hoping for team kenya to go ahead and do something wonderful for this one what can you tell nick okoth and the other guys who are waiting for this performance to kick off qualifying for the olympics any level is a huge achievement and he's done his best he hasn't lost by a huge margin yes it's just small errors and small margins but obviously we are reviving what i've just referred to as our heat squad we used to do very well in boxing and we went on a slump and now we are trying to get our stride back it's going to take time there's going to be a few hits there's going to be a few misses there's going to be a few wins and there's going to be a few losses along the way but all is not lost well nick okoth they are losing in the first round of the round 32 of their featherweight boxing championship in the tokyo olympics there but let's come back to team kenya we were talking about the ladies who have actually managed to qualify for the afro basketball it is their sixth appearance this time around considering that they were there in 2019 2013 2007 1997 and way back in 1986 but it seems that there is a bit of a change in the basketball fraternity looking at how the morans also came out and actually went on to play in the afro basketball finals after a very long time i think it was a 20 year drought that we had not made it to the afro basketball finals and now the ladies are also not being left behind yeah it's everything that i said actually about even the technical benches being together that they actually combined with the morans team and they've been there for a long time i was actually listening to the now team manager she's been there since 2013 she was an assistant manager then and she has been working with the ladies quite well in there and then you look at the local competition the one that i was leading to from kpa you're talking about how improved the facilities are right now and how incredible the competition is that you need to be at your best level yes to be in the national team and that is what actually makes the difference with these ladies coming on improving that they can do it and at the same time i mean you talk about going into the bubble if there is something that they mentioned quite a while after they came back to the country was getting into the bubble quite earlier yes and that is september they'll be having the competition so they want to be in the bubble for around maybe a month so that they can actually get through the details and again another thing that i've had a lot even with victoria renaudz when you were talking about winning the mvp was how they went through the films yes that would mean there is a lot of technology going through the they can be able to stream matches and watch how the competitors are playing watch how they are playing their games and make adjustments yeah and that is top quality kind of technology that we need preparation is k there's some guitar here talking about everything that happened in the afro basket but qualifiers and kenya will be playing there for the first time since 2019 we wish them good luck actually want to catch on what they'll be talking about they'll be live on kbc channel one from 2 p.m so you can also go there and enjoy some of their conversations but for us here we've got to go back and talk about what happened on wednesday as the milwaki backs also managed to come from a 50 year drought from a two nail lead in game one and two against the phoenix sands and then coming back to win four two in the game six in the final game of the nba finals did you enjoy the final yes i did and the african input yes i'm sure that tai would be able to pronounce so that natshub's name is named better brilliant uh he was born in greece he's of nigerian heritage and just to see him go out there and with a final tally of a final points tally yes that can only be matched in history by the great michael jordan and another guy with probably nigerian roots hakim the dream olajuwon those are great names when we were growing up those were the legends and for him to surpass kobi brian to that level and all those other big names and to match them historically i think that really says a lot about our continents vast continent of talents going to america and achieving that yes as a black man that's no mean repute that is something you take note of and that is something you celebrate before we go into the details of the march and everything did you enjoy the fine yeah i mean over the years you've been used to predicting who is going to be in the final start the beginning of the season yeah you either talk about leka as you talk about the gold and set warriors the cavaliers or the raptors whoever you're going to mention based on the talent they have in the team and i guess this was a different season altogether we had 72 games in the season from maybe the 82 that you usually have and then if there was a factor that was in this season that probably differentiated teams was held because there was a lot of kovin 19 positives players used to go to health protocol at the same time we had lots of injuries because they just came in from the bubble finished the championship and within two months they already started the new season so this time round to have two different teams that no one expected them to be in the finals the miloki barks probably would have expected them to get beat by the brookliness because they that was a super team with kd kari aving and james haden you know the other side you have phoenixans they finished their last last season and they only came into the bubble one eighth consecutive games yes you look at that kind of a young team that has been booked at gandria h on michal bridges come around pain you don't think that these are the names that are going to make it to the finals and then kris paul yes j krauda gets into the team and they make it to the final so the level of unpredictability in the playoffs in the post season was something to enjoy and it was actually a record even in game for around 12 million viewers watched that game so it will it sums up the level of excitement that was there in the nba finals this season yeah but some of the things that now started out was i think uh the the championship of the clivalent cover layers winning that one they were also beaten the first game one and game two and then now miloki barks they have come in lost game one lost game two how do you recover from that go ahead and win four now consecutive games for you to be declared the champion more than anything is the psychological aspect that you have to conquer because basketball you could be good you could be spot on yes there's things obviously you can polish up on but the fact that you're now losing by two games to nothing yeah that calls for the psychological strength on your side to overcome anything else to surmount the challenge of the two game deficit and you really must come together and believe that you're going to conquer your opponents in every single department you're going to match them yeah everything counts at that level every pass every block every steel every attempt at a three pointer every attempt at a two pointer every attempt at going for it and hoping to win yourself a foul in the process and net it while looking for the foul as well yes everything has to be top notch and for that to be achieved psychologically you must be at a nice place what do you think it changed for milwaki bags and where did it go wrong for the phoenix and well first you go back to when milwaki started becoming a a team that could win the championship yes i think it was two years ago and they made it up to the eastern conference finals and the game team that there was kawaila and i don't know it was a part of the Toronto Raptors yes he defended yanisat into kumpo for life he was there with him every second and it was a devastating loss for the milwaki bags at that time and then come in the bubble they played against the miami heat and lost yes going back to those two seasons the other seasons where milwaki bags would absolutely tear up the league win the eastern conference place be the best in the league yeah but then it comes to the playoffs they somehow didn't find a way so they decided to test themselves this season they made a few trades and brought in bobby potis jr and also brought in jru holiday from the New Orleans pelicans who was absolutely money that in itself was an upgrade to what they had before because they had Eric Bledsoe now was transferred and traded to the New Orleans pelicans yeah looking at the differences between now and what they were before you could say that they somehow decided to test themselves on how you're going to face the post season yes and they didn't actually focus on having the best record in the league they finished that actually in the eastern conference yeah and they tested themselves they tried to make new adjustments coach bad was doing absolutely incredibly he lined up some players who without that he wouldn't get into the team he made some good adjustments in there and I guess they learned through the process at that time and going back into even the journey they had this post season they played against the miami heat quite easy for them they swept them and then they played against now the super team that everyone expected them to win against and that was the brooklyn nets against kevin durand you had carry aving and you had james had and yeah they lost also to the first two games in there and their resilience was able to show up again they were able to come back you look at their home record in the post season they have won 10 and only lost one game so that would tell you something about the the backs that they actually prioritized mostly on the fism forum and you can see even the fans out there they are really enjoying the mix and so for the backs to have come up against the brooklyn nets and win against them in our best of seven series that might have given them the confidence going in against the phoenix hands facing adversity if there is anything that yanisatento kumpu has been known for this season has been how he's been able to fight his strength and he's been able to at least conquer when he has some weaknesses in the game everyone in the past few seasons has been talking about just yanisatento kumpu being that kind of a player that can shoot from the perimeter he can shoot free throws free throws are problem for you and what you saw in the finals and the final gamer is called 50 points he converted 17 out of 19 free throws actually the level of disrespect was seen in miloki where a certain pub decided to gift free drinks to every made free throw by any satento kumpu he ended up sinking 17 we probably could at least keep those people in our pairs because they had lots of booze in there but at the same time you talk about the nature of yanisatento kumpu going through his profile on twitter and there is a certain statement he has on his bio where he says that the sweetness in success he after the game talked about probably how it would have been easier for him to move away from miloki bags go to a lake as go to a golden state where he has joined a super team and just play a role and win the championship but he decided to stick with miloki being a 13th pick in 2013 probably would have gone to the Atlanta hooks picked by the backs and he decided to build a team with Chris Middleton who also was part of that team and got into the second round pick from Detroit it was impressive it's good you have brought in the super teams and the likes of Lebron who was not going to make it this time round with an injury and all that so Stephen Curry also never made it with the golden state warriors a lot of changes with Durant also going to the Brooklyn nets but is it another term also now we are seeing another shift in basketball the the the term of Lebron Steff is now gone the likes of Durant Harden it's not the terms of yanisatento kumpu and Jiro Holiday well it's not the first time we've seen this kind of wave in basketball but it could spell that wind of change coming in for a few seasons and i would like to think this is not a one of because what we saw from this side is that they've learned how to win once you learn how to win you can win again if you maintain the same level of discipline and it's a side that's built on guys who can go the whole hog for the next few seasons i think there'll be a factor going forward but then again the more established sides like the LA Lakers will want to reassat themselves back into dominance they have the money and in sports money is like a mother's breast milk to an infant it keeps that child going and going and going and growing and growing and growing and fighting off disease so there's going to be a contest let's not throw in the towel yet there's going to be a contest between the much more established basketball sides versus the new kids on the block who've now brought their team first victory yeah for 15 years man yeah look at the game five 13 seconds to go drew all the throws all up and then yanis comes in with a dunk was not the turning point and they were like if we're going to game six now we're going to kill these guys off no that was not the turning point yeah the turning point was in game four final seconds of the game bugs are leading by two yes and ryan reyton has a chance to draw a dunk and yanis at end of kumpo with the level of flight that he had he was able to block that short probably one of the best blocks you've seen in nba finals and i i can stand for it because he was defending devin buka and he decided to see that dandey hiton is all over him and he jumped over him and was able to gather block if they lost that game they would have gone down three one yes pro they would not come back because they are going away in the next game but those kind of plays have been seen by those instrumental guys that you need and true holiday was instrumental especially in that game five that you're talking about because it was a steal from true holiday that he he picked it from kris paul and was able to drive through so yanis screaming at him and he was able to throw the alley past plus a foul yeah i think the level of plays that they showed in big moments yeah for example even that 50 point game yanis at end of kumpo doesn't have any nerves and i was looking back at his history and how he's coming to the nba he knew nothing about the nba he came straight into the miloki box and everyone is telling them hey do you know brandon jenningsson he's like who's that and that is the thing that built him up that he doesn't fear anyone and he's going to judge you by the way you play yeah and we've seen that and they are the survey champions this season definitely finally you're looking at uh michael jordan sometime back and even when you watch the last dancing is being asked about was the goat in basketball and he says that's a bit of disrespect for the other players who were before my time and me playing this time and the players were coming after my time and yanis yesterday said it's not about being the best of the best it is just being about the history you being part of the history winning the nba just playing in the nba and winning the nba being part of that you're already great enough and everything but before even winning the championship this year round he had already been named mvp i think two consecutive seasons he had been mvp for the nba and also coming out as one of the best players in this generation that is playing in the nba do you believe he has joined the status of the goats now and they'll be there for some good time it is it's time now to rule the nba not yet he's on his way there he's on his way there yeah it takes a bit more than that he's on his way there let's not jump the gun and pile pressure on him he's got some great days ahead yeah and to and he hasn't even retired he's only 26 years to start really putting him there with jordan yes and the rest of them yes like abdul karim jabar yes and magic johnson maybe even larry bard it's too early too soon to to do that uh usually the british media the ones that do that with their soccer player the english media let me be more precise the english media do that with their soccer players they even went as far as calling wen runi the white pele yes and wen runi only ended up scoring one goal after after three or four wildcups yes let's not jump the gun let's give him time to grow and when he's done and dusted with it yeah that's when we can come up and say he got there or he almost got there whatever sami i would like you to give me your final word on this session of the nba considering that milwaki backs have won it now and i think three key players for me i will go with the yanes and titokumbo we had bobby porches there and then drew holiday when you look at them if they stick together the way the golden state warriors stuck with their golden troops for some time is it also their time now to make sure that they can sam some authority in the nba yeah those are the key things for the milwaki back going into next season number one coach baldin hosa is ending his contact next season probably you might want to extend it because you've seen what he can do you are doubting it but first but this time around you've seen what he can do with the adjustment that is made all over bobby porches is good that you mentioned him he came in as a free agent he's going to be a free agent this season probably you want to see whether he'll get a new contact at the club or he's going to go out on free agency and maybe get a better deal elsewhere and the other guy that you've just mentioned again is Joe holiday they've got to keep him PJ taka is another impressive player for the team he he made a record of not scoring points in three games of the nba finals but his defensive attributes for what just stood out he's been there for a long time with the houston rockets in this time around the championship he came in as a free agent another man they should keep going into next season keeping the band is really essential for these franchises especially if you want to defend the title yep talk of people who actually do not sleep at night one of them is samigita staying all night watching the nba all the way from the draw the group searches and the preliminaries all the way to the championship those are the guys what is the name what is the name we'll be looking for it a little later on and also Teira Zwayaiki here let's take a break with some of the matches that have been played in the Olympics with brazil winning 4-2 against germany richard coming on with the hard trick and when we come back we'll be talking about what do you expect from the tokyo Olympics 2020 and also some of the highlights of the transfers that have been happening kwa wakiniwa. Robato Sorai wa Tachalan wa kwa kwa kwa kwa kwa kwa kwa kwa kwa kwa kwa.


The topic which we are going to discuss is theories of accident causation. If we see here, the accident-incident theory is an extension of human factors. It was developed by Dan Peterson and is something referred to as Peterson-accident-incident theory. If we see the incident-accident theory, it means that if any situation arises in an organization, how someone should behave in that particular situation. Peterson introduced such new elements as an ergonomic traps, the decision to err, and system failure while retaining much of the human factor theory. Here, Peterson wants to say that if this factor is considered, then the chances of an accident or any type of injury can be reduced. When we do not consider these factors, then the chances of injury can be increased. A model based on his theory is shown in figures such as Peterson-accident-incident theory. If we see here, first point is overload. Here we see the pressure, fatigue, motivation, drugs, alcohol, worry. These are the factors which are commonly used by the employees in an organization. When employees are not motivated in an organization, then they use drugs, alcohol, or under stress. We will call these factors overload. Because of these factors, the chances of an accident or an injury can be increased. An ergonomic trap, incompatible workstation, size, pose, reach, feel. These are the factors where incompatibility does not exist. Muscle and size of organization, size of workplace, where the individual is going to perform his duties. If the individual wants to do his work properly and the space is low, then there are more chances of his harm. Decision to error, misjudgment of the risk. Of course, your judgment is not accurate. This is called misjudgment. There may be chances of an accident because of misjudgment. For example, you are driving a car. You want to cross the motorway and go ahead. And you are facing problems with the next car speed. If your judgment is converted to misjudgment, then chances of an accident will be increased. Sometimes, even because of misjudgment, an accident can be caused. Unconscious desire to earn logical decision based on the situation. This is also a factor that can cause an accident. If these factors are combined, then these are human factors that cause a mistake. And because of them, what will happen? That will be an accident. And when there is an accident, then the injury will be damaged. If it is seen from the back of the accident, then there are some factors such as system failure, policy, responsibility, training, inspection, correction, and standards. If these factors are followed by the standard operating procedure, then chances of an accident are minimized. If the theory of accident causation is seen diagrammatically, then the epidemic theory, presidential, and pre-dispositional characteristics, and situational characteristics are different. Pre-dispositional characteristics may be the success of people, perception of people, how they perceive about something, and environmental factors, which are not in your control. In situational factors, risk assessment of individual, peer pressure, peer pressure is the pressure of all your colleagues, in which supervisors, subordinates, and all these people are involved. Priorities of the supervisor. Some supervisors have given you a task, but they want you to perform a task first. Subordinates should perform their duties according to the priorities of the supervisor. Attitude of the individual. The supervisor is telling you not to work with your heart. The supervisor is very excited and motivated. You can see these factors in the organization when it is achieved. If these factors are combined in the epidemiological theory, then pre-dispositional characteristics and situational characteristics are combined, then because of them, we can cause or prevent accident conditions. This point comes forward. This means, can an accident be caused by these factors or can it be saved from accidents?  Epitomological is the study of causal relationship between environmental factors and disease. The reason for the disease is the epidemiological theory of accidents. System theory of accident causation. If we see the system theory of accident causation, then the students of this theory means, when an accident is incurred in the organization, then the individual's behavior is less, but the system's behavior is more. This is called system theory of causation accident. This theory uses a situation in which an accident may occur as a system compromise of the following components. Number one, person, host, machine, agency, and environment. Now, these are the three factors. If a specific combination is being used in these three factors, then the chances of accidents will be less. If these three factors do not have a better combination, then the chances of accidents will increase. As mentioned here, the likelihood of an accident occurring is determined by how these components interact with each other. Then changes in the pattern of interaction can increase or reduce the probability of an accident. If this slide is concluded, then this means that if in an organization, individual's sex, machinery, and environment, if these three factors are in favourable condition, then the chances of accidents will be less. If these three factors do not have a better combination, then the chances of accidents will increase. Number two, feedback loop. In feedback loop, there are three factors. I have shared with you, machine, person, and environment. These three factors interact with each other. Then, collect information, various, make decision. If all these factors are in favourable condition, then task to be performed. Your task will be successfully completed. This is called feedback loop. If all these things are not in favourable situation, then task will be performed but not in an accurate way. Then the task will not be performed in an accurate way. Combination theories of accident causation. If we look at the combination theory used in the accident causation, then what is the combination theory? Let's look at the scores of the students. According to the combination theory, the actual cause may combine parts of several different models. If we look at the actual theory, then several models as a whole are used, and we tell people how we can avoid accidents or cause accidents. We basically call this combination theory. Safety personnel should use these theories and appropriate both for accidents, prevention and accident invention. In this, two terms are used by dear students. Number one, prevention and number two, accident invention. Revention means that if something is going to happen, then our mechanism should develop in such a way that it can be stopped before it works. This is called prevention. When an accident happens, it is called investigation. The combination theory is dealing with both. Then, however, they should avoid the tendency to try to apply one model to all accidents. This means that if an accident happens in the organization, then the situation cannot be applied on all situations. We call this combination theory of accident causation.