So very good afternoon and hello to my fellow panelists. I am pleased to welcome you all to another invigorating session at the Tech and Innovation Summit 2021. COVID-19 has accelerated the adoption of technology, especially in the healthcare sector with the rise of health tech. Today's discussion will be a fascinating deep dive into health tech and the accessible roadmap to tomorrow's potential and will leave you with some inspiring ideas. We're joined by experts who will be sharing their perspectives on what the future of health tech holds and shining a light on critical issues, such as using health tech to make health care cheaper, the intersection of data and health care and bringing all stakeholders, including doctors and patients together. Allow me to introduce you to our distinguished panelists. I welcome on stage Sandeep Senghal, co-founder and MD, Nexus Venture Partners. Suresh Venkataria, CEO of our Technologies and Harsh Simarbeer Singh, co-founder, Pristine Care. Gentlemen, thank you for joining us today at this session. Thanks, Maniko. Yeah, thank you for inviting us. Thanks, thanks, Manita, for having us here. Thanks. So I'll start into the discussion mode right away and Sandeep, you being an investor, I'll first come to you to understand from you because you as an entrepreneur started a healthcare company and then now you're also invested in a lot of healthcare ventures, including Liberate, Crelio Health. So what kind of involvement have you seen of the sector and especially during the time of pandemic where we have seen this sector really emerging out? Yeah, I think the key thing, as you mentioned, is emerging out and it's a broader trend, obviously, in the industry with digital business models scaling up much faster and health is no exception. I think the biggest change that we saw was a flip on the consumers' purchasing behavior. So before the pandemic, I would say, if you looked at digital models and digital health in particular, the ability to pay or the desire to pay was a big question mark. And during this pandemic, it sort of digital health became the only way that one could consume health. There was hard to go to a hospital. People didn't want to go to the hospital, but you still had health issues that you had to take care of. And so now if you were trying to reach a doctor and doing a phone call or WhatsApp, it was tough to just assume that they would not get paid. And so the big flip that has happened in my view is the consumer's openness to paying for digital health is having a big impact. And that is leading to models across the board. So you have your D2C models where health providers are going direct to consumers and are building platforms or solutions in either verticals or more broadly. There are solutions emerging for taking existing providers who are offline into an omnichannel platform where a patient can consult with a doctor either on their phone or in the hospital or actually all the way to, as with Christine, actually doing procedures, but they start off with the D2C model. And then I think the third big area that continues to sort of see investments is this cross-border tech, right? The cross-border health opportunities where Indian companies are building products in India but potentially can look to take it global. So it's a very exciting time in the healthcare space. We have seen a lot of emergence of different models. The one other thing I would sort of leave behind not from a nexus perspective, but I have been very actively involved in this ACT initiative where we are bringing private innovation into public healthcare service, right? So public health remains a very large portion of healthcare delivery in India. And we are also seeing a lot of, there's a emergence of a joint model, this private partnership model where the governments are much more open to working with private healthcare providers, which I think is a very good sign because it will allow our private companies to scale much faster. So whether it is tele-ICUs, whether it is testing solutions, whether it is, and this is a lot of this has happened in the COVID context, right? But I would say those are now becoming a lot broader. And I just, I think is another factor in driving growth in healthcare companies. So I would like to leave it at that and come back later. Okay, sure.  I mean, did you see more users being lined up? And when we talk about digital healthcare, what was the emergence like? You know, so I think Sandeep indicated towards what we do, you know, pristine is specializing in actually doing surgeries or procedures, which actually happened largely inside an OT. So there is, at the end of the entire journey, there's a person inside an OT with a doctor and entire team, so it's a very physical culmination of the entire process. But during the pandemic, you know, when our prime minister came on national television and very rightfully announced that, you know, because healthcare infrastructure is under pressure, that elective surgeries should be slightly discouraged. So I think at that point of time, you know, of course, there was an impact on our business, but then, you know, in healthcare, everything cannot be postponed. So while elective or non-emergency procedures were postponed, there was a lot of emergency or semi-emergency procedures or patient care, which was not, you know, which was not possible to be postponed. I think at that point of time, taking a peek from what Sandeep said, there was a huge change in mindset of not just the patients. In fact, you know, in our experience, I think the biggest impact actually has been in terms of the doctors, the mindset of a doctor, because, you know, just like every other consumer internet company, we are technology first, we expect our doctors to use EMRs, our doctor apps and every other technology as a clinical pathway. And I think the adoption and the enthusiasm towards, you know, just using that technology bent to a different angle. And I think that for us has a huge, huge impact. So when pandemic happened, we realized that a lot of our hospitals got COVID covered, a lot of our, you know, clinics got shut down, we operate like 100 clinics across 30 cities.  So we, just like every other healthcare startup, we developed, you know, telehealth or teleconversation where a doctor and a patient could interact via video or an online, even before the day of the surgery.  We started segmenting hospitals. So there were a lot of hospitals who were covered with COVID. We started segmenting hospitals where there were no COVID patients and we ended up actually, you know, almost investing in them to increase the safety procedures from thermometers, clinical masks, respirators, every other, every other, you know, sanitizations, every other processes you can think of. We started, you know, solving for patient travel because there was so much fear and lack of, you know, the mobility got impacted hugely. We started picking up patients from home.  We started doing all of it remotely that even before a patient lands up, how does that paperwork gets done and stuff like that?  We also had to develop a lot of, you know, diagnostic networks because, you know, because of the natural risk of a doctor and patient interacting in such a closed group, there was a risk of transmission. So we had to really test all our patients for COVID.  We partnered with some of the players. We developed our own ecosystem to a larger extent where every patient was, you know, tested for RTPCR or antigen in certain scenarios where RTPCR was not possible so that we can ensure protection. So stuff like that. But I think largely, you know, COVID has brought, COVID or this pandemic has brought about a, you know, the acceptance of technology in health far more, I think, which would have been done in the last 10 years, like from the doctors to hospitals, some people indicated the patients to, you know, the government, you know, we remember when the government passed those telehealth guidelines, I think it took 13 years to come at first stage and then it took probably, you know, less than a week to arrive at stage two. So I think regulators also helped drastically. So the acceptance of technology during COVID, I think went to a very large degree, which was, I think, the biggest change for us. Sure. Suresh, coming to you, you have an interesting model that too in the dialysis space. So what was the impact of the pandemic? I mean, you wanted to share your side of it. Yeah, I mean, if you consider our space, especially those patients who are having kidney disease, there are two different aspects. One is those patients, they have a kind of a kidney disease, they're called the pre-kidney failure patients and those who are having kidney failures. I mean, those patients, those goes through transplantations or for that matter, dialysis. So when you consider about a dialysis, probably as you guys may be aware, there are about 90% of the patient, they go through in-center dialysis.  And the world where we talked about social distancing and then staying away from the crowd and not traveling in public places. But for this patient, it was not the case. 90% of those patients have to go there.  So, and then these patients are extremely vulnerable. Means those patients who are having kidney disease, they also have a heart disease and then liver, diabetes. So there are a lot of things happen, in fact, starting from Wuhan when the issue happened, there are a lot of patients got infected or having kidney and dialysis patient. And right now in Singapore, there is one of the biggest clusters on dialysis clinic. So for us, since we are developing a product that is kind of a next generation, a wearable product where patients can get the therapy on the go and predominate at home, there are a lot of interest from the investment community, clinicians, as well as when we're trying to go to the next level. There is a lot of momentum on the home side of it. And even from the payer's perspective, and when you consider in the US, I mean, India, I'm not so into dialysis market yet, but we are just trying to do something there. But in the US, they spend about 7% of their healthcare budget on kidney failure patients. 7% of CNS budget goes there. And then 90% of the spend happens in center. So they're trying to change the, I mean, the paradigm. They're planning to shift most of the patient to home. And there is a huge shift towards that. And we strongly believe the same thing eventually will happen in Asia. In Hong Kong, it's 80% home dialysis. In India for that matter, maybe it's more than 95% of the patients, they go to the center, get a dialysis done. And probably more than 500,000, maybe close to a million patients, they just die because they cannot afford. So there are twin problems here. They cannot get proper therapy at centers. Second one is probably they don't even have access, in fact. Yeah.  So are there any new areas further which you want to talk about, wherein you see these are the green shoots emerging and these will be targeted by venture capitalists for investment? I think it's interesting what Suresh mentioned in terms of kidney care. We invested in a company, we actually were one of the seed investors coming to Cricket Health in the US. And I see Suresh smiling. I think those are the kind of models that are emerging. Basically dialysis is a large requirement and it's growing. There are limitations in existing models that Suresh has highlighted some of those. And I think that's where changes will happen. So you will see new models emerge in India and across the board. So as I mentioned, there are two large, I would say clusters of innovation we see. One is in the area which is the normal place where money has gone in healthcare, which is the metro sort of sec A population targeted situations, right? So elective surgery actually sort of falls in that bucket. And then you have a series of investments that will happen that are more mass in nature where it will be really driven by volume rather than price. So there is a, so you can look at it that there are two types of, you know, in healthcare either you make money by you charge a lot but it's innovation is driven by innovation and you can charge more because that population is less price sensitive but needs that healthcare, right? So oncology is a segment where effectively, you know drugs are at lakhs of rupees but people pay for that because that's the only way for cure. And so that is that segment will see innovation in many ways. You will see newer models emerge. So this whole area of diabetes reversal that literally in a matter of the last I would say six months, right? Maybe a year at most has suddenly caught fire that today there are a half a dozen diabetes reversal sort of programs. And, you know, I personally have invested in two of them but if you look at it, you know, freedom from diabetes or that diabetes clinic they've been there on for a very long time. Why the sudden shift, right? Again, there is obviously a shift that's being driven by your acceptance from the consumer. I think Hassan made a very important point also that there is a big shift in the provider side whether it is a hospital, whether it is a doctor, you know, when I started, when I invested in library we did a market study and each most doctors feel that they lose about 30 to 40% of their practice to free consultation. These are consultations that so normally if I come to your clinic I consult with you and I do a follow up the next day to tell you my lab reports or if I just have a question on my prescription that's normal, that is accepted. But if three weeks later I have, you know, a relapse or if I have another problem and I just call you it should technically be a consult and you should pay for it. But the Indian user doesn't do that. The Indian patient is used to getting free consults from doctors. And so, you know, when we started the tele-concert business you know, we were the library was the first person that really built up tele-concert and at that time tele-health wasn't really accepted model pricing wasn't defined tele-health guidelines weren't defined and it was tough for the doctors to also do something because they were always concerned how would the regulation deal with this? So I think there has been a perfect storm in a good way of regulation of consumer behavior change or provider behavior change, which I think has been brought which I think is critical to the next generation of entrepreneurs that are emerging. As entrepreneurs emerge, I think more and more capital will also emerge. So that is what we are seeing right now that, you know, there was a period of time where health, digital health went on the back foot. The original investments that happened in digital health did not deliver the promise of that time because of the various issues around regulation around consumer preference and so on. But those green shoots will come back. In my view is what was done then some of those entrepreneurs will re-emerge they will pivot, they will re-emerge. Others will take the examples of what did not work then but now regulation allows it to happen and rebuild those businesses. So I think there is going to be a lot of that. On the mass side, I also see big opportunities emerging because fundamentally between Ayushman Bharat and other models around insurance and so on, there is a definite understanding of how to use insurance in conjunction with innovation. I think again, Suresh made the use the example of CMS. Right? So in the US, CMS with Medicare and Medicaid has created that model where you can bring innovation in to the ecosystem on the basis of what the payers are willing to pay for. And I think that is the same thing we're starting to see in India where insurance companies where the government as a payer is now looking at ways to reduce healthcare cost delivery, improving access and new models will emerge because of that. So the larger topic which we are discussing here is with these innovations would we also see the healthcare cost coming down? Will it further benefit the consumer? I believe so. I think as you see access in particularly rural markets as well as will the cost, I think on a unit basis, the cost will come down. On an aggregate basis, I think the cost will go up because today where healthcare is needed is not being provided. So today, there is a large portion of a population that should be spending on healthcare that is unable to do because they don't have access to it. Now, today if somebody has diabetes and is sitting in a village they don't have any way of reversing the diabetes. You put them on a digital platform, they can and they'll pay for it. So there is going to be potentially an increase in overall health spend but decrease on an individual basis. Sure. So Harsh, Suresh with respect to your individual ventures what is your take on that? Medical cost coming down. Sorry, Suresh, you go first. All right, so in our space, I mean, it's very obvious as we just mentioned that the CMS or maybe for that matter any government, providers, payers, everyone they are trying to reduce the cost and incentive dialysis is very expensive. And for that matter, even those patients were not diagnosed what cricket health is doing that's undivided. They're doing a great job identifying kidney patients at very early stage. There are 10 to 15% of the patients are kidney patients by the way, we don't know about it, but they are. And then once they end up in crash dialysis or sudden kidney failure the expenses are so high to the system. So there is one trend is happening where they're trying to detect early predicted kidney disease progression and contain it or is possible just to stop there even though if they cannot reverse it. But when it comes to kidney failure per se definitely I think a lot of things are happening because once we get with a device which is user-friendly and patient really wants to use it and then more and more home care patients will come out because patient really wants to get the therapy done at home. And by the very nature of the home dialysis it is about 20% cheaper. And in the US itself they are spending about 40, 50 billion dollars on this. And even just if you move around 20, 30% more patients is huge, huge saving. And same thing with in India. So if you consider I have come from a place in India it is about 400 kilometers from Bangalore and about 30, 40 kilometers from a major city even there is a patient in my place he has to travel 30 kilometer, 40 kilometers to get a dialysis done, think through, right? They cannot even go there. And I think first of all, I think cost may go I agree with Sandeep to some extent those who are therapy or maybe healthcare is not accessible but they may be able to access it but for those who are already having access but the cost will come down. So as a whole, I think society will benefit from the technology if you consider I mean, in the total sum of it. Yeah, I think maybe sounding not very true different for us, I think the way we look at cost is one, regulators will help in bringing the cost down. So for example, now there is there is restriction on implants, for example you know, there was a rampant cost on stents and stuff like that, right? So there is the regulators will bring that cost down a bit. Then because the access like Sandeep and Suresh mentioned as the access gets extended to more people there will be also mass production on some of these implants. Right now they are being produced by very limited people concentrated in a few power centers when it starts to progress to more democratized as the more people start to produce it the cost starts to come down. And I think another thing which I'm sure Sandeep and Suresh will resonate with me is that as you start building companies with innovative business model a big cost is normally patient acquisition or customer acquisition which starts to build in your bottom line. And I think in a very, very rightful manner India's startup ecosystem has and all of us are part of it has moved to a place where entrepreneurs are far more responsible. They understand business economics. They understand PNL so much better that there's an increased focus on making business which are actually just valuable and not just aggregating customers. So as customer acquisition costs starts to come down because there will be more acceptance of innovative models, tele models, all those stuff. Again, the cost starts to take a hill. And nothing is that as Suresh was talking about and I was almost light bulb was going out in my head he mentioned that he belongs to a village which is about 40 kilometers from a larger town. Today we operate in about 30 cities but we operate patients from nearly 150 cities. So if you are in Bangalore and there is a patient in, let's say, Huzoor or you are in Hyderabad or Bombay and there's a patient in Lonavala or Guto they cannot come to a Hyderabad city without all the hassles. There's so much ambiguity, lack of transparency but where there's a provider and with some of the companies which Sandeep was talking about our own company Pristine they can actually reach to a very, very high quality doctor digitally talk to them, discuss their case send their documents and actually come on the day of the surgery or a day off for treatment and actually reduce those visits. Like he said, you meet a patient today you discuss your cost but maybe few days down the line there is a complication you have to reach out to the doctor again. Now if you can only do that physically then the travel takes a toll and starts to break down but if you can do it digitally then the number of patients who will start accessing this healthcare will start to go on. So I think that will help bringing the cost out and I think technology that as a whole what is happening is we work with nearly 400, 500 hospitals we do surgeries in probably so many different places now and we get a chance very lucky to interact with some of the largest corporate centers and sometimes when you talk to them and you understand, hey, why is this procedure why is this treatment costing so high? A big part of that is that they have invested a lot in infrastructure so that's so expensive they are not able to drive a lot of utilization so cost gets passed out. If they can drive more utilization because the access improve the cost come down. When there is lack of competition in a certain town they get a monopoly and we went through a slightly tough period during COVID when there were areas where patients were overcharged but when there are more mass players folks such as Christine other startups which start to become have same kind of very competitive impact. Suddenly the market starts to resize itself and we have seen that impact in mobility we have seen that impact in food delivery we have seen that impact in services everywhere when technology enables more entrepreneurs to build better solutions when there are more customers who will get better access there will automatically be a pricing which is going to be reorganized and you look at airlines when there were more players the cost of airlines started coming down. So I think you will see technology having an impact and bring the cost down. I think another thing maybe picking up from Sandeep's book and I think which we keep thinking about innovative models in healthcare of a very polite suggestion which I keep sharing with some of our investor colleagues and seniors from the industry is I think on education unlike a fintech or an FMCG a lot of investors senior entrepreneurs, angel investors they come from those backgrounds but very few people actually understands let's say dialysis I don't know what Suresh would feel but I can almost bet that number of community folks who can understand dialysis the way Suresh does is almost unmatchable and I think sometimes what happens is I remember when we were raising our brass out of capital from Tiger Global we had a very, very marquee investor talking to us during that period and he said, Harsh we are sitting in the valley we don't have a comparable model in the US we don't have a comparable model in China I'm not able to understand like the complexity of what you are saying I trust you but I have actually no real insight and that makes me tough for me to take a little bit so I think there is gonna be that area where a lot of those marquee names because a lot of the problems you talk about dialysis I think there's so many innovative models in India Suresh's team is doing so much amazing stuff and so is other companies in US but number of people who are focusing on real hard problems in some of the developing nations India, Southeast Asia those problems are actually not there in US and the trends are not gonna follow it's not that a dark store concept goes viral in US and Europe and every food delivery in India takes it up it's easy understood or in FinTech where you know everybody will accumulate a lot of user then find a way to sell them loans and lending products it's understood it's happened in the West it's easy to understand but the problems which a lot of healthcare entrepreneurs are gonna solve in India it's not gonna be comparable in US there's a company in South Africa which started or South America rather which started doing pristine model and so many investors from South America started reaching out to us they say, we don't understand what these guys are doing but they are modeling them on pristine so I think there's that little education which will be part of the ecosystem and maybe not necessarily trend following from US I think there might be a change there I think there's a very important reason why trend following cannot work because the US has built its healthcare model in a very different way than India the RFE for service approach is ingrained in the model our whole payer business is still very small relative to the way the US works US works, correct I think one sort of caution for healthcare entrepreneurs trying to build businesses in India don't try and copy US models in India absolutely I think healthcare is one area which is very, very different and you have to think of it as first principles I think what Harsh brings up is very important India and the needs of India particularly in healthcare when you're building your businesses Exactly and I think all the fellow entrepreneurs like Sandeep mentioned so exciting to see so many young entrepreneurs trying out models in variables trying out modeling dialysis primary healthcare I think is scaling to a different level we all know diagnostics has it's so easy today to book a diagnostic test at home is actually easier than maybe ordering food food is still very easy but maybe doing some other services so I think there's a lot of forward-looking and it's very exciting to be in this ecosystem today I mean interesting, I mean I agree I mean if you consider US and any other developed country because of the pay-us it's much easier to bring innovative product I mean you can work with agencies, providers but even if you consider dialysis in India so right now probably less than 500,000 patients are going to dialysis 300 million plus people there are close to a million patients in next two, three years in India there are more than a million patients they are just dying not having access forget about innovation forget about bringing something different so it's about reach and access there first before I mean at least in our space first I mean before going to a cutting-edge digital innovation and everything definitely it will help I'm not denying that but when it comes to dialysis it's access as of now I mean one other point we don't have a person on this panel preventive health is actually also seeing a tremendous amount of interest from startups and I think that is also a very good sign that if we can both Harsh and Suresh are sitting at the end of the funnel in some ways right that person will only go for a surgery or will go to dialysis in situations of emergency but I think the biggest thing is there is a awareness shift that's happening in the market that hey can you avoid getting sick and how do you do that so I think there is a lot of activity happening in that sector as well yeah I think maybe in the interest of time I've suddenly pointed out on preventive health I actually got a chance to spend some years in the US studied there and got a chance to learn the ecosystem the preventive health ecosystem in some of the western countries so developed that when you go to a physician and you have a preventive health checkup and there is a problem or something in irregularity we just pointed out you are recommended a very high quality treatment sometimes a treatment goes beyond just taking a medicine a treatment can be a procedure it could be a dialysis it could be correcting your lifestyle taking medication stuff like that now that nuance in India is far from over here when people reach out or patients reach out to companies such as Christine and others in healthcare they are like on the verge of that disease has become like a problem it's like if their daily regime is almost it's becoming too problematic for them to survive and I think in that notion as preventive health scales I think the fundamental life cycle of the entire healthcare will move to a different tangent altogether so it makes a lot of sense Joe, I think with this we'll have to wrap up this session because it's already 2.15 and one last viewpoint from each one of you Sandeep, I want to understand from you and of course from Suresh and Harsh also in terms of the conjunction we are seeing of an investor and entrepreneur in healthcare, I mean do you further help them in any way of course investment is one bit of it in terms of growing the model further so Sandeep, if you want to start with any examples I think as Harsh mentioned part of it is being able to bring insights from other markets to India market and combine the experience that the entrepreneur is bringing in that area with global exposure so I've also lived in the US and so on and have worked in the healthcare consulting space with McKinsey in the US so there is but ultimately as I said a lot of it is the nuts and bolts of helping build the team helping make the right partnerships raise next round of capital and so on so that's where we come in So Harsh, any anecdote you want to share? I think I'll actually go step ahead and say I think the investor community is extremely proactive while there is like I said there needs to be slightly more level of education but we have such a smart community and it's thriving so much that there's a lot of work which is being done there I think the more work which needs to be done is more on the entrepreneurial side I think a lot of entrepreneurs sometimes don't go the distance to solve a problem extremely deeply from first principles and some of those efforts get limited to building an app, a website and maybe a few pathways but sometimes you have to solve the problem extremely deeply you know somebody like a Paytm for Paytm to survive and today you can go to a Nukkadwala and scan a code and every other company of course phone pairs have contributed but somebody has to go down give them a QR code give them a bank account where the money can be transported and maybe at some maybe initially also give them a smartphone for God's sake I think that is the level of execution which is needed in healthcare and it will be far reaching than maybe putting together an app or just a digital marketing acquisition channel and I think as a polite suggestion as an expectation from our own fellow entrepreneurial company would be to go the distance and solve hard problems and execute you know DP and first principles I think on the investors are actually quite a lot of help so rather than anything so that's just sounding quite safe I mean doesn't it sound like investors? Punita just to add a point from my side right so we are developing a drug device combination device it's a class three and it's just a kind of a breakthrough and if you see a dialysis device 50 years ago and the device now it looks same and even when we went to FDA and asked about the regulatory pathway they said we haven't approved this kind of product in decades right so the challenges is different entirely compared to digital or maybe something like in a typical scale up so we have been working on this product for last 10 years there are investors they came in 2010 and then we have to keep the motivation still up for next five years still we really go there and also still we have just completed the first phase of the clinical trial with very encouraging data but still we have another owner two phase for us we need and we look for investors who are really as passionate as us and also have a longer term horizon that are not many investors they really want to take a risk in our kind of products compared to the other space but definitely that is the one thing I looked into where I think they have a longer term vision and also they are ready to take risk and also bring complementary skills that is they have some network they did some kind of PMA product and then they understand the market very well they have some no clinician they bring additional investment because of their networks and connections so that's I mean last time just to let you know I think probably Sandeep can appreciate that before I landed with my lead investor I had 45 meetings so almost like 44th I thought again I mean it's difficult but I had to go to the 45th meeting with the same zeal and energy and everything that is as if it is my first meeting and they are going to invest in us so we need to have that perseverance when we are dealing with the deep tech and med tech just to get there and really convince and just to get to the next level so I think investors are of great asset unless they come on board and they with us we cannot do anything so and it's much more in the healthcare space given the longer gestation cycle So with this we would really like to conclude the session and would like to thank all of you gentlemen in terms of the way you have been helping the sector to go through your entrepreneurial venture and also as an investor


You want some good reasons to stop watching the news? Either njroute22.com here with a little bit of an editorial slash social observation video today on our vlog. It's about the news. The news as Steve Carell famously made everybody laugh. Last time we watched the news regularly it was probably well over a decade ago. And since then we've pretty much tuned out. We don't watch the news at seven o'clock or what are cable news or any kind of primetime news channel. And while we don't not keep a pulse on what's going on in the world because we think that's important to know sort of what's going on and not every little nitty gritty detail. We pretty much focus on our lives and the things we do for ourselves and our family. But why should you stop watching the news is what I'm trying to get at here. For one I think for you to truly understand what we're talking about here you gotta take like a significant amount of time off from the news to really understand. I could tell you all day long that it's no good and it's unhealthy and it's sickening but until you actually just stop watching it for years preferably and then come back and see what's going on and what you've missed you'll realize that you made the right choice.  But do you know what happens when you unplug from this nonsense? You become really like clear minded on why the whole entire structure is just nonsense. First of all when you see these talking heads on these TV shows they have this aura of importance. Like they're important people oh here I am. Like when I talk to you guys on my videos I'm just speaking like a human being. They never really speak to you like a human being. They look like forced actors you know I don't know. And the whole entire production quality of these news programs feels extremely like produced like a Hollywood production. They got soundtracks, they got graphics, they got all sorts of dramatic breaking news.  And of course the subject matter is always bad news, tragedy and scandals and drama and despair. It's a psychological like chosen subject matter and how they I guess other people like watching the suffering of others. I don't know it's why like people love game shows where there's losers or you get fired from the show.  And of course all these news programs always mention some sort of authority like the government and police and all these important people celebrities. You know there's some sort of authority involved. But you know without getting really into the historical details and the psychological details about the whole news thing but it's really basically designed to screw you. And the same can be said for a lot of like YouTube channels for instance they're popular and first of all you wonder why and then they're promoting some sort of nonsense usually. But all these programs they are designed to shape who you are and how your mind works. Not to think clearly and question things. They don't really and if they do let you make a decision it's two limited choices you know. And then they also do that from a very like obviously all fear like famine war like viruses all this other stuff. And then they do other things in a very subtle way that you can't quite put your finger on over time. And it happens sometimes over generations whether it's gender things or whatever. I mean there's many varying forms of changing public perception. And while we're at it it's not like oh I'm gonna go into the conspiracy theory camp and like think they're all out to get us because that's a whole nother like kind of subject that maybe one day we'll get into but most of those conspiracy things are also controlled by other people and designed to you know nudge you into a different corner like the other corner but they're both controlled by people who benefit from your belief. And then you know hey you gotta buy these survival kits they last 20 years. And my best advice is to avoid it all and just focus on your family first. Always family first. And if you don't have that privilege you may want to just find some trustworthy friends and slowly build up a network of trustworthy people. But the whole news racket print and online and on TV is something that most people would be much better off if they did without. So click the like, hit subscribe and I'll see you next video.


This is the second in a sequence of videos to help with critical thinking. And this video is going to be about the use of evidence, and in particular evaluating how evidence is used. Now when you find evidence in an argument, one thing that you should be interested in is whether the evidence is actually right, whether it's true. But in critical thinking we're not particularly interested in this question. It's an important question but it's not a critical thinking question. In critical thinking we're going to assume that the evidence is true. And the question that we want to answer is could the conclusion still be wrong? So in other words we're interested in the link between the evidence and the conclusion. And we're trying to decide whether the conclusion actually follows from the evidence. Okay so let's have a look at a couple of examples. Here's the first example. We have an argument which says in 2010 the prison population of Great Britain was about 84,000 whereas the corresponding figure for Spain was only 74,000. This suggests that there are more criminals here in the UK and therefore that you're more likely to be a victim of crime than in Europe. Okay at this point you might like to pause the video and have a think for yourself about the use of the evidence in this example. Do these figures of 84,000 and 74,000 support the conclusion that you're more likely to be a victim of crime here in the UK than in Europe? So pause the video and have a think. Okay well the first thing you might have noticed is that the evidence is about the prison population of Great Britain. And that's used to support a statement about the number of criminals in the UK and a further conclusion that you're more likely to be a victim of crime here than in Europe. Now this doesn't work just because the prison population is higher in Great Britain than in Spain doesn't mean there are more criminals here in the UK. It could be that in the UK are more effective at catching the criminals and so a higher proportion of people who commit crime end up in prison. Or it could be that we have a different criminal justice system which means that judges are more likely to hand down a custodial sentence to somebody who's convicted of a crime. So a higher proportion of the people who are convicted of a crime end up in prison here in the UK than in Spain. The fact that the prison population is higher in Britain certainly doesn't mean that you're more likely to be a victim of crime. Because even if there are more criminals that doesn't mean you're more likely to be a victim of crime. It could be that there are more criminals but individually they commit fewer crimes. Something else you might have spotted is that the initial evidence is comparing Great Britain with Spain. But the conclusion is about Great Britain and Europe. And we certainly can't conclude that you're more likely to be a victim of crime here in Britain than in Europe just because of some figures comparing Great Britain with Spain. And there's another problem which is to do with the statistics the numbers themselves. Because the evidence here is about the number of people in prison. But the conclusion is about the likelihood of being a victim of crime. Now actually the number of people in Britain is much higher than the number of people in Spain. So if you work it out the proportion of Britons that are in prison is lower than the proportion of Spaniards who are in prison. If anything that means you're less likely to encounter a criminal in Britain than you are in Spain. Okay I hope you thought of some of those problems. You may have thought of some others as well. For example you might have thought that the argument was extremely bizarre because if so many prisoners are locked up in Britain surely they're not on the streets to commit crime. And if anything the fact that a higher number of people in Britain are in prison suggests that you're safer here. So there are lots of things wrong with the evidence in this argument. But the important thing is that in critical thinking what we're trying to explain is how the conclusion can be wrong even if the evidence is right. You'll notice that in none of my points did I challenge the statement that those are the prison populations. I'm completely accepting that there are 84,000 people in prison in Britain and 74,000 people in prison in Spain. I'm completely accepting those facts but I'm questioning whether the conclusion follows from them. Outside critical thinking of course we might well want to check those facts and see if they're true but that isn't a critical thinking task. Now before we move on there's a couple of questions which it can be helpful to ask yourself to try and see why evidence isn't very good and doesn't help to support a conclusion. Questions that you can ask yourself are is the evidence relevant and is the evidence sufficient? Let's see how those questions can help us to see problems in the use of evidence. Let's look at our argument again. Hopefully you can see that a statistic about the prison population isn't precisely relevant to the number of criminals that are here in the UK. Prison population and number of criminals are different things and it's even less relevant to the probability of being a victim of crime. The number of people who are in prison isn't relevant information or not precisely relevant information to a statement about how likely you are to be a victim of crime. You can also ask the question is it sufficient? Is this evidence about the prison population of Great Britain compared to Spain sufficient to show that you're more likely to be a victim of crime? And as I've tried to explain earlier it is certainly not. It's easy to see that the prison population of Great Britain could be higher whereas the probability of being a victim of crime could be lower. As I said, in Britain it could be that all the criminals are locked up and so you're very safe. Okay, let's look at another example. Here we're told school leavers are having second thoughts about university, aware that an average graduate starting salary of £17,000 is hardly going to cover debts of up to £15,000 after three years at university. It's obvious that graduate salaries no longer match the crippling costs of getting a degree. Okay, again at this point you should pause the video and have a think for yourself. What's wrong with the evidence in this argument? Okay, so it's really important to be clear. We're not going to question these figures of £17,000 and £15,000. We're not going to ask ourselves where they've come from or if they're true. We're going to assume that they're true but think about whether, even if they are true, does that mean that graduate salaries no longer match the crippling costs of getting a degree? So we're going to assume that the evidence is true and question whether the conclusion actually follows from that. So first of all you might have noticed that the £17,000 figure is an average, whereas the £15,000 figure is an up to. So it's clear that actually there could be a lot of graduates who are earning far more than £17,000, whereas the average debt could be much smaller than £15,000. So it's possible that if we compare like with like instead of an average with a maximum, if we compare two averages, it could be £17,000 and £5,000 or if we compare two maximums, it could be £35,000 and £15,000. Something else you might have thought of is that this is telling us that graduates starting salary. Now it may be that graduates are only paid £17,000 when they start work but if their salary rapidly increases when they're in employment it could be that they're very soon able to start paying off their debts. So that would be another reason why the graduate salaries may actually be enough to be able to pay off the costs of getting a degree. Okay there are other problems with this argument as well. We can cheerfully accept that graduates starting salaries are £17,000 and an average initial debt is £15,000 but what if you don't have to start paying back the debt straight away or you're able to repay the debt over a considerable number of years so the amount that you have to pay back each year is say only £1,000. There's lots of ways it could be true that the £15,000 debt is easily repayable even though the average starting salary is only £17,000. Okay so to summarize the main question that you want to ask when you're asked to look at some evidence and evaluate the use of it is even if this evidence is true even if we have to accept the evidence does that mean that the conclusion follows and you can do that by thinking is the evidence precisely relevant is it telling me the exact thing I need to know in order to draw that conclusion and secondly is it sufficient is that piece of evidence enough to show me that that conclusion is right or is it possible that the conclusion could be wrong even if the piece of evidence is absolutely true. Okay I hope you found this very short introduction to evaluating the use of evidence helpful. It's important now to look at lots of examples of the use of evidence and to start to get clear about some of the ways in which evidence and statistical data can be misused in real arguments. So thank you very much for watching and I look forward to making the next video for you.


There's going on guys, right? It's mark. I thought I'd come back give you an update on the positions I picked up over the last couple of days. It's been kind of negligible, right? So it's just been kind of flat lining I think we were down 0.02% one day and then back again the other day So it's kind of just remained and the same but I thought I'd go over the trades I've picked up as a bus couple of days and just go over why Yeah, go from there. So Coca-Cola had its biggest single drop Since 2008 single day drop. So it was down about 8% Let's just show you the chart here So, you know massively oversold right and you can see That we've got this support level right around where it's hit and it's been here quite Consistently, it's been here previously 45 Typically I would want to wait For it to curve right around or you know the EMA to kind of pick up some momentum So we're coming back up But with that being said and with such a massive drop I kind of wanted to just make the most of it Obviously, we do have the potential to fall right back down to 41 here You can see that it's been here previously and let's just draw it in so you guys can see that Right, can you see here how it's it's been around this level before but that's fine I've got it. I've only got 1% the account on it and it's times one leverage So if it does continue to pull back I'm quite happy to hold on to it just because Coca-Cola is a company the reason that it was What fell so hard was just because of their kind of predictions moving into 2019 But as a brand it's not really going to go anywhere. So I can't imagine it Pulling back too hard and obviously we've got the potential to cover 8% right to this 49 level And even looking a little bit more conservatively up to 47 Yeah, so I think that was a decent buy if it continues to To pull back obviously we keep an eye on it if it's not too aggressive, then we'll continue to pull back in and obviously if it Curves up again, we'll continue to buy into that just average up So yeah, just something to keep eyes on again MacD Covenant for a sale right excuse me a bite and then massively oversold on this RSI So I hope that will make sense if you have any questions at all or any of this doesn't make sense right EMA SMA RSI and MacD. There is a link in the description To all of that Right what else did we pick up? Google just because I think I've been over Google quite a bit. So I don't want to go into it too much But look you can see it's on this ascending uptrend pattern right if we get rid of the candles If you just look at this EMA look how that's going right up and then pull back up and then pull back up and then pull back And then I'll just imagine it's got so much ground to cover I'm just quite happy to keep buying into this the whole time that it's it's got this pattern And even on the RSI even though it's been ascending quite quite well quite consistently it's still At a decent level right right smack bang the middle So yeah again, it's not a hard and fast rule with the MacD and the RSI But it's just just something to use Just if you look at the chart does the price look good and then you can use these to kind of like reaffirm your initial thoughts It's that's Google We also picked up some race some Ferrari Just because let's have a look for sure Ferrari so Ferrari again same with Tesla Has a kind of similar or quite consistent horizontal and kind of between this 118 and 141 Obviously it pulled back quite aggressively like all stocks did towards the back end of last year And then you can see that it's found this kind of support around the SMA SMA is curling up And then it's right kind of Consolidating in this this mid-range Between 118 and 141 so I think it's got some decent ground to cover and our size decent level I'm actually covered in you know feel like a broken record, but just just getting you know This is just how I look at it and I find this to be quite Reliable and as long as you can be quite disciplined with it and it's cool And again trending above the EMA so it's got some momentum behind it candles closing there Um, so yeah, even on a conservative 130 we'll cover a kind of couple percent. Um, so yeah, so it'd be worth it Again, if it continues to move up we'll average up and then hopefully obviously we've got the potential to go to 148 But I can serve it if 141 um So that was that what else did we pick up? Disney Disney just a solid company. Um, again, I like to buy things that I'm interested in coke google Ferrari and Disney um so Disney again If we look At this so you got this old resistance here um, or just just about that acts as Or can act as a new support Um, and then it's broken above the SMA. Hopefully this SMA will start to curl up You can see it's actively trending above the EMA and it's got decent ground to cover Kind of consistently up to this 117 mark so um Matt D in for a sale looking kind of slightly overbought on the iris like so what I would expect to happen with this kind of opening towards Uh next week It's for it to pull back more towards the SMA, right? So where are we at now? So around this 112 I'd expect it to pull back to around 111 10 and then continue to push up No, I'm just because it's been consolidating around this level. Um, or even bounce off of the SMA Which if we could zoom right in um, yeah, so around 111, I'd expect it to to pull off of there and and move up Again decent ground to color. So it's all about just looking For for the upside, right? So if there would be no point in buying here because the upside would be To 117, right? And I don't know what the percentage off of my head, but that ground isn't probably I'm not going to try and do the math But the ground to cover is is not worth the potential of it pulling back to this resistance here if that makes sense So just look for the upside as long as the upside is more than the downside, right? And you can put your stop losses in and um, that sort of thing that that's You know, you can't really go wrong. I don't feel Um, and then the other ones I've spoken about so I've got a bit more aggressive with Ali Baba put two percent of the account on one trade And obviously it pulled back on the on the Friday, which is fine to be expected. Um Again, so you can see that the um, it's holding this support line here Um at 160 around 166. Um, the only slightly or the thing that makes me a little bit, um, nervous is Um, the fact that the EMA is is pulling back and it's closed below the EMA But this SMA is curling up. And so hopefully we'll see this even if it were to pull back here Hopefully we'll see this act as a support right continue up and then continue to to push up Um slight like it has done previously, right? So you can see that it's broken below the EMA And then it pulls back acts as a support and then continues to move up. Um something to just think about And also, um, again, we've seen hires of 192 conservatively Um, even up to kind of 205 if you want to be slightly more aggressive. So Um, what's that like in 20 25 more did come up? I think off to my no even more than that, right? So it'd be about over 30 so Um, so yeah, so again, I think the upside is worth it. Um And even if it were to pull back, I think I'll kind of continue to buy into this So I'm natural right with Ali Baba And again, uh, I think I picked up Berkshire Hathaway as well just because That's a similar thing Berkshire Hathaway is Um, holding holding that support level Um above the EMA our size good. Matt. He's good decent ground to cover 216 So, um, yeah, again, if any of this doesn't make sense or you're unsure about it anything Um, and and you'd want to kind of get a little bit more into the full process. Let me know Um, you see we've got a couple positions here. So, yeah, um, should be good I would expect this to kind of open up green next week. It's got some momentum behind it Um, and also McDonald's Put some more Mackie days Um, so you see this had a good one again I would expect this to slightly over so I'm over what right now I would expect this SMA to act as a resistance here maybe around 180. Um I'll expect this to pull back towards the start of next week. Um, and then continue to trend upwards and and reach these Riches levels here 180 Because this is all kind of slightly extended. So the mac these extended the RSI is extended So just something to think about, uh, don't don't be more don't panic if you see the red It's expected to pull back to the EMA. Um, if it does, I'll continue to buy in and then expect it to push up And if you look over the long term look at the long term growth of McDonald's, right, so it's fine. So Confident they will continue to move in that direction Um Right. Oh, also just to touch on activision. So I was hoping that activision's earnings would oh Oh, oh, also, what did I want to mention? No before I go into that I closed out of my nvidia positions. Um before the earnings just to Just to hedge my bets because we was up. I think it was Um 12 percent we was up. So I just wanted to hedge that I didn't want it to pull back and and us to Lose all the green because you never know. Um, it did have a positive ending. So we was up 5 percent We still um are holding some positions that are slightly down on it. This is kind of From way back when is this 10th of october? Um So quite happy to hold on to them. I'm sure it'll cover this ground again. Again ascending uptrend, right? You can see high highs and low lows Um It'll pull back and then I'll kind of continue to buy into this So I just want to touch on that and why close those positions. Um, but yeah, I thought um Activision's earnings will act as a catalyst to kind of propel it forward You can see that it pulled back again still above the EMA still got momentum rsi is decent mat D is is curving down But um, again Activision is a company. Um, it's got so many solid titles. It's just a case of competing with, um, the free-to-play games fortnight Is the main one there's a couple others that are floating around And then once they they find a way to kind of compete with that. I'm sure that they'll kind of be back to Form a glory again. SMA looks like it's um Turning positive and And so on so yeah, that's everything that we picked up um A few days back and I didn't have a chance to And go over that you can see some of them in the green somewhere in the red These are positions that are closed over the last Seven days. This is for the last month for our 4% this is last seven days. Half percent. Oh, right So you can see closed viz are adobe nvdr. I'm got our master card Um, because as I say if you watched one of the previous videos, I mentioned that this was all gonna happen Um, so yeah, keep an eyes on these to get back in So we have 30 days three months six months cool, so So that's it for now. Um, I will touch on the Stokes that I'll be looking over the next couple of weeks if there's anything that I am interested in buying Um, if you guys have anything that you got your eyes on I would be interested to know just so I can kind of Expand what I'm looking at and we'll see if there's anything that I'm interested in that you guys are watching Uh, so yeah, and then tesla I'll be tired of that, but yeah, so I'll leave it there. Uh, thanks for watching if you've watched all the way through Um, if you enjoyed the video thumbs it up share it Subscribe all that good stuff and I will probably catch you guys Um, if not again today probably tomorrow. All right later on. Bye