I'm Hildang Jugina. I'm a graduate with a bachelor's degree in business administration and I'm a mother of one son, a single mother. I'm 25 years old. At the beginning they were not happy because it took my mum almost 7 months telling me, What's the need of that certificate in the house? Every parent's dream is to see her child or his child being successful. So the main issue of taking a lot of money to take me to the university was to see me a big person, maybe working with the government with a big organization like FOIL. But for loci, you'll see things coming before. Like when the COVID-19 was here, most farmers sold their pigs and they were asking me, How are you managing to keep pigs with the situation that is here? I told them at time we'll come and the business will go back to normal. So, giving up, it's not part of me. My peers usually ask, Hilda, how you to do farming? And I tell them, yes, I remember one of them told me he had gone out for dinner and she told me, hilda, unanukam guruwe, you see. But because I know what I'm doing, I didn't feel anything bad. I know this where my future is and I'm the next big thing. I challenged the youth to take up for me. It's a good business. It may seem dirty, but eventually you'll shower and you'll become clean and your pockets will never be empty.


Welcome to Happiness Isn't Brain Surgery with Doc Snipes. This podcast was created to provide you the information and tools Doc Snipes gives her clients so that you too can start living happier. Our website, docsknipes.com, has even more resources, videos, and handouts, and even interactive sessions with Doc Snipes to help you apply what you learn. Go to docsknipes.com to learn more. Hi, everybody, and welcome back to Happiness Isn't Brain Surgery with Doc Snipes, practical tools to improve your mood and quality of life. We're continuing. This is segment five of five segments talking about strengths, needs, attitudes, preferences, and temperament. We're finalizing the last dimension of temperament in this presentation. The last dimension of temperament, and I don't want you to assign too much meaning to what each element of the temperament is named, because I don't know why they named them these things.  It helps you, and if you go on to kiersey.com, you can take the kiersey temperament sorter, and they will use these same labels to help you figure out where you are in terms of temperament. This actually originated back with Jungian archetypes way back in the early 1900s. So this isn't new stuff. We've just figured out how much or how important it is to understanding not only ourselves, how we approach life and recovery, but also how we interact in relationships, including those at work. So this last dimension is called judging versus perceiving. And I really don't like those terms, but they are what they are. We'll start with judging. Judgers tend to be more structured. I am probably pegged out as far as you can be on structure. And I like that better than judge, because I don't judge other people who are spontaneous, but I like my structure. I like to know I get up, I'm at the gym every morning at the same time, give or take 10 minutes, you know, I know what's going to happen. I have my day planned out. Judgers, for example, if you call them up on a Friday and you say, hey, it's been a long week, let's go out. If they didn't already have that on their schedule, they're probably not going to go with you. They are not people who do spontaneity well at all. We are people who tend to really like structure. We love our date books. We love our calendars. We know what's happening when and if somebody changes plans at the last minute, we can adapt, but it is extremely stressful. We don't do well in jobs like law enforcement, where you don't know what to expect on a minute by minute basis. We like to be able to feel a little bit more in control of things. So let's talk about judging a little bit. We plan ahead. Judgers tend to have planned ahead, not just for today, but probably for the whole week. When my husband and I first met, he is much more of a perceiver than I am, and he would be more flexible. He would call up and be like, hey, do you want to go out tonight? I'm like, no. I needed, before I had kids, I needed about two days notice, so I could work that into my plans, and right after we got married, I was working on my dissertation, and I had time blocked out from an 11 a.m. to 3 p.m. when I would work on my dissertation. I remember one day he came in there, where I was working, and he started talking to me, and I evidently gave him sort of a quizzical, irritated look, and he's like, what's wrong? And I was like, this is my dissertation time. This is not talking time. He's like, I've got to make an appointment, and I said, yeah. And I wasn't being sarcastic. It just, it made sense to me that I had that time blocked out, so unless it was an emergency, it could wait. Not necessarily the best for getting along in a relationship. You need to be a little bit more flexible. And like I said, once I had kids, if you've got kids yourself, you know you can't plan everything down to the minute with children, because stuff happens. So you've got to have a plan B and a plan C. Perceivers don't tend to have to have plans A, B, and C. They just deal with whatever comes up. Judgers, we tend to have a plan A, which is where we prefer to be. And then we have a plan B and plan C in case plan A gets messed up. But that, if we still have structure, we still kind of have our fingers on the pulse of everything. We tend to be self-disciplined and purposeful. But what we do, we do moving towards good orderly direction. We do with the purpose. We're not just running off willy-nilly for the sake of it. People talk about going on vacation, so they can see the sites. I'm like, well, isn't that what Google Earth was for? And you can do it in a lot less time. They look at me weird, but it's OK. I said I was pegged down. I know I tend to be a little bit more extreme. Judgers tend to get things done early, plan ahead, and work steadily. We want to make sure that everything's done so we meet our deadlines. We are extremely deadline-oriented. And we can get frustrated with people who prefer spontaneity in the workplace, in recovery, in relationships, because they won't give you a time. It's like if you call them and say, let's go out to dinner. And they say, OK, I'll pick you up this afternoon after work. That's not what a judge wants to hear. I will pick you up between 5.30 and 5.45. OK, I got that. But this afternoon after work, what time do you get off? Does that mean 3? Does that mean 7.30? We need, we prefer, things that are much more concrete. We are excellent planners, although we may not appreciate or make use of things which aren't planned or expected. So for example, if we're planning a vacation, and we figure out we're going to spend the weekend looking around, we're going to make a decision by Sunday evening, Monday we'll call the travel agent. Then on Monday, we call the travel agent. And the travel agent's like, OK, I can sign you up for that. But I found out that they're running a special to do an Eastern Caribbean cruise, yada, yada, yada. For judges, that can throw you for a complete loop, because that's not what you had planned. You don't necessarily make use of this new information and go, well, you know, we could do a trip to Alaska next year. Eastern Caribbean is free, is going to be a lot cheaper this year because of the special that's running. So we tend to be predictable. And there's something that is endearing about predictable. It can also be extremely boring to someone who's perceiving. So we need to recognize that. Judges do really well in recovery, because we can follow, we can write out relapse prevention plans. We can follow relapse prevention plans. We can make sure we schedule in our mindfulness exercises and whatever else we're supposed to do. So we get that done. But again, if somebody calls us up to go do something fun that would obviously help us feel happy and benefit recovery, we may not be able to take advantage of that because it would be too stressful to alter our schedule. So we need to be aware of those things and try to be open to possibilities working within comfortable parameters. Like if you have to have 36 hours notice now, you know, try to be open to something where if somebody calls you up today, you might be willing to do something with them tomorrow. Small steps, you know, it's not going to happen overnight. But be open to it and at least consider it. Perceivers adapt as they go. These are the people that fly by the sea through their pants. They'll wake up on Saturday morning and go, you know what? Let's drive to the beach. I lived in Florida for 20 years, so people did that a lot. And it would just boggle my mind. I'm like, well, you didn't plan on that. You've got to get everything packed and you've got to get the car gassed up. My little judging mind and my checklists, oh, I love checklists, my goodness, and lists in general, would just start flipping out. Perceivers are just like, yeah, you know, if we figure out we forgot something, we'll just stop at Walmart on the way and pick it up. They can adapt. They can figure out workarounds where a judge might get or someone who's more structured might get stymied. So again, it's good to have these two people working together in the workplace. You can see how the structured person keeps everything moving along at a steady pace. But then when something happens that throws the line out of whack, the perceiver can say, okay, here's a workaround. And then you can work together and get things back on track. So they work really well together if they know how to communicate and respect the strengths that the other person brings. Perceivers are flexible and tolerant and thrive on spontaneity. They are going to get bored in relationships if every minute is planned out. In my relationships, you know, the people that I tend to go out and do things with know that they need to call me and try to make plans like a day ahead of time. I'm not as rigid as I used to be. Every once in a while, I'll go out on the spur of the moment. But most of the time, I still is just really stressful to do. But I can schedule in spontaneity. And I know that sounds weird. I can schedule in a day like on Saturday or Sunday where I know that it's going to be whatever my family wants to do. So they can decide on Saturday morning if they want to go hiking or they want to go to the pool or they want to do whatever. It's not planned. I don't know exactly what we're going to do, but I do know that I am completely out of control of what happens from 8 a.m. Saturday morning until 6 p.m. Saturday evening. I can plan for that. I can put that in my date book, family time. And then we work from there. Perceivers tend to get things done at the last minute depending on a spur of energy. Now as a former supervisor, when I worked with people who were perceivers, it would drive me a little bit baddy because we would have an audit coming up or chart notes do or something else. And they would be putting it off. I'll get it done later this week. And with no definite dates of when it would be done and they would be staying late the night before the auditors got there to get their charts up to speed or to do something at the last minute getting ready for a meeting. Whereas I would have preferred to have them have it done two or three days ahead of time so they could spot check it and make sure it was perfect. But understanding that they would get it done most of the time is important. And perceivers can benefit from judges because judges can kind of nudge you along to make sure you get it done more often than not. Perceivers always want more information going back to that vacation.  And then on Monday we can talk about it and they may continue to look at vacation options for two more weeks and never actually make plans. And then all of a sudden you're three weeks out from vacation and you still don't have tickets to do anything and that gets expensive. So perceivers may need a little bit of a structure kicking the butt from judges to set a deadline. So, okay, at the end of the week we need to figure out what we're going to do. As judges, structured people, we wanna give them enough time to try to get as much information. And we need to be open to the fact that if new information just drops in their lap like the travel agent saying that they're running special on this particular cruise, we need to be willing to take a breath and say, okay, let's add that into the pile. We're still gonna make a decision today, but we can add that new bit of information in. Perceivers always think there's plenty of time. So they may get caught learning about how to do something and never actually get started. You know, there's plenty of time to get that done. And then all of a sudden you're at the last minute. So they don't do really well on time management, but they are good at great actually at handling unplanned events and dealing with things that come up. They may not make the most effective choice, but they can roll with it. They're not going to miss a step if something happens and their plans get messed up. So as judges, we can benefit from the input or consult of perceivers as perceivers can benefit from the structure imparted by judges. When it comes to relationships and working together, understanding your different temperaments and trying to understand what makes each one less stressed. Perceivers get bored if they have too much structure. Judges get stressed out if they don't have enough structure. So how can you make it work for both of you? So how do you figure out if somebody's a judge or a perceiver? If the person loves schedules, checklists and protocols and manuals, they're probably a judge. If they prefer spontaneity and more the broad strokes, probably a perceiver. Do they get things done early? Or are they, which is a judge, or are they waiting till the last minute, which is a perceiver?  Do they get things done early or do they wait till the very last minute? Does the person fail to make use of all the possibilities and struggle with unplanned events? So if plans change at the last minute, do they kind of get caught off guard? Or do they just say, yeah, whatever. A judge will struggle with changes at the last minute. A perceiver will just kind of roll with it and go, okay, whatever. Understanding that's how you are. It's not better or worse, just how you are. Together, judges need to allow for some spontaneity. Schedule in spontaneous times where the spontaneous person can kind of be in control. Have coping skills to deal with plan changes because life happens. One of my friends is going through a lot of different stressors right now and she came home yesterday and found out that her son had appendicitis and they're in the hospital now waiting for him to have surgery. Now, that's a huge plan change. She had to go to work and she had laundry to do and she had all this other stuff, but then obviously her kid comes first. So it's really stressful, not only worrying about him, but figuring out how she's gonna get everything else done. Judgers need to appreciate perceiver's desire to explore but also set guidelines, which we can respect spontaneity and we can say, you know what, if you need some time to just go cut loose, more power to you. Have a guys weekend, have a girls weekend. We can also appreciate the fact that they need to have some time, even if it's with us, that they can be more spontaneous and everything's not planned down to the nth degree. That's going to be up to the two of you to negotiate. Perceiver's need to plan spontaneity if they're in a relationship with a judge. So they know that, okay, I've gotta go by the schedules during the week, but on Saturdays and Sundays or maybe just Saturdays, I get to set the tone and set the pace and make the plans. Perceiver's generally in recovery, in relationships, in work, need to have a general schedule because you're probably going to be working with or around people who are more structured. When I start to do relapse prevention plans, judges love to have things, they write out which meetings they're going to go to, which times and how they're going to do it and if they can't get to that meeting, what their backup plan is, I mean, they've got it down. Perceiver's would go batty if they had their life scheduled that much. With a perceiver, you say something like you need to go to 90 meetings in 90 days and encourage them to figure out a little bit ahead of time what that's going to look like. For regular tasks like doing laundry and shopping and all that stuff, a weekly to-do list may be as much structure as they can really embrace and be happy with and not feel oppressed. And that's okay. We have one on our refrigerator that I have lists of things that need to be done this week so the kids can go and when they finish their chores they can find something that needs to be knocked off. And perceivers also need to be willing at some point to stop researching and taking in new information and make a decision or get started on the project because there's so much information especially with the internet that you can get stuck in this never-ending learning phase where you never actually move forward and try to implement the project. In recovery, judges need a backup plan for when their recovery activities fall through.  Do you have books that you can read? Do you have online meetings that you can go to? What can you do so you don't feel like you're just spinning around in circles? Judges can benefit from being willing to explore possibilities and reopen their recovery plan at some point to include new things. So if your recovery plan for example was written and it was 100% 12 step and then you start learning about dialectical behavior therapy and mindfulness you might choose to reopen your recovery plan and start integrating some of that or at least be willing to consider it. Judges are excellent at helping perceivers create relapse prevention plans because perceivers tend to miss the details. They say I'm gonna do 90 meetings in 90 days and then they start getting caught up with work and school and family stuff and everything else and they start missing meetings because they're not paying attention to the details and the structure. So perceivers need a plan and again like I said a weekly list can work so you wanna do seven meetings in seven days. They can benefit from a judge's insistence on getting started. So somebody's keeping tabs and going come on you need to move on to the next step you need to start writing your autobiography even if you don't finish it bring me the first page. Perceivers are excellent at helping judges handle unplanned events. So if all of a sudden something goes topsy turvy a perceiver can say all right well let's make lemonade the world just handed you lemons let's make lemonade the judge is probably gonna be standing there wide eyed going I don't know what to do. The perceiver he's got he's creative or she's creative and she's moving on to all right let's look at what we got now and figure out which direction to go. Changing behavior involves learning what is causing your distress and tools to manage it. Extroverts need to be in environments where there are people and they can draw energy. Introverts need to have quiet time each day. People who are judges tend to need more structure and thrive on structure and don't do well in situations where they've gotta fly by the seat of their pants. Perceivers on the other hand thrive on spontaneity. So those are the two big dimensions that you wanna think about in terms of what causes you distress and what may be causing hurdles in relationships. Effective change involves maximizing your strengths considering your needs and motivations what is it that you need? We want a lot of things but in order to be happy in order to reach your goal of happiness whatever you think you can achieve in the next six months what do you need to have happen right now and what motivates you to do that? Is it compassion and care and friendships or is it success or what are your motivations? Address your attitudes that may be keeping you stuck keeping you depressed, keeping you anxious like always feeling like the sky is getting ready to fall, the other shoe is getting ready to drop or seeing the negative and everything. Think about Eeyore from Winnie the Pooh. Work in harmony with your own preferences and the preferences of those around you. There's a big and in there it's not or the preferences of those around you. Know your preferences and be willing to compromise and meet people in the middle and communicate to them in a way that's meaningful to them and hopefully they will learn how to communicate to you similarly. It's important to pay attention to the potential pitfalls of your change plan based on your strengths needs, attitudes, preferences and temperament. For example, if you're recovering from depression and you're a person who tends to need a fair amount of sleep each day that may be something that you've got to schedule in and you need to make sure that other people know that that's a need it's not just that you want to get three or four hours of quality sleep each night. It's that you need it in order to achieve your goals. So knowing what you need, your best friend may have other needs but what do you need in order to achieve what's most important to you and maintain and nurture the relationships and the people that are most important to you. If you like our podcast, you can subscribe on your favorite podcast app. You can join our Facebook group at docsknipes.com slash Facebook or join our community and access additional resources at docsknipes.com. Thanks for tuning into happiness and brain surgery with Doc Snipes. Our mission is to make practical tools for living the happiest life affordable and accessible to everyone. We record the podcast during a Facebook live broadcast each week. Join us free at docsknipes.com slash Facebook or subscribe to the podcast on your favorite podcast player. And remember docsknipes.com has even more resources, members only videos, handouts and workbooks to help you apply what you learn. 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Hey friends, it's Leanne. This is a quick note, more of appreciation than anything else. It has been an incredibly tough week on everyone in the meetings industry. I want to say thank you to our clients who have been so patient and so gracious with us as we've helped them through their cancellations, their rebookings, everything.  I'm sure dealing with so much behind the scenes in cancelled registrations and exhibitors and sponsors. So thank you so much for being so patient and so gracious during this time. To our hotel sales partners, you all have been equally as amazing. Thank you. This is horrible for you guys as well. There are no winners here. And I just want to say thanks for your patience with me and of course with our clients in looking at solutions during this unprecedented time. And it is that it is an unprecedented time and I can't be more appreciative of the industry I'm in, even though we're getting hit, probably the hardest of anyone right now. Special thanks to those of you who have sent personal notes and there's quite a few of you who have reached out just to see how I'm doing. With the exception of taking an odd Advil here and there, we're doing okay. We're hanging in the best we could along with all of you. So anyway, thank you so much for your personal notes. They mean more than I'm able to reciprocate at this point in time. So thank you very much. Now, down to business. As some of you may have seen, we have an email list or sorry, an email that goes out via a distribution list every single day with resources about COVID as it pertains to the meetings and events industry.  If you have not received an email with my resources and would like to be added to this distribution list, email me. My email address is up here and I will ensure that you're added for this afternoon's update. Right now, these emails are going out daily because things are changing every single day. There's going to come a time when they'll get less and less and you can be removed from this email distribution list at any time. Secondly, for meeting planners, if you are still meeting or you're looking to meet in April, May, June, we have a list of meeting planning resources for you that you can find at our website here. These are questions that you can ask your hotel, but also things that you can instructions that you can give to your attendees and your exhibitors. Let's not forget about the high touch we have around our exhibitor boost. And finally, for those of you who are surveying your delegations about their intentions to intend, we do have some drafted survey questions. Again, email me and I can give you those survey questions as well. These are all adaptable and changeable according to your needs. So everyone, keep calm. Carry on during this COVID-19 event that we are all experiencing. Again, this was more of a note of thanks and I hope you all get some rest this weekend. I'm thinking about you all. Bye for now.


There you go. I was right. It was this house Where did he go? Okay, he's gone Yo, was that Chucky?  All right, enough for the hair slander man.  You need a haircut. I don't know what you guys are talking about But my hair is perfect.  Name scream now you may call the screamer ghost face whatever you want to call him by but this game is made by Stefano can I give up in vendetta as you can see it is on game show I will be leaving the link for you guys to download it down below Make sure to check it out because it seems top-notch.  He kind of looks like the dead by a dead by deadlight killer I don't know if you guys know what that game is a game is awesome by the way All right So as we can see there's a story mode in the killer mode not yet developed But let's go ahead and join the story mode and guys have your new around here Make sure to subscribe turn that notification bell on the most important make sure to smash like All right, let's get it. Oh man the slashing us Got a chills ghost face Woodsboro, California. Is that even a place? I believe it is a place. Oh, oh My god, okay. Oh wow Jenny all right Jenny. I see what you're working with All right. Oh, what's up with this music though? Yo, this go hard, bro, I know you love me.  This song goes hard dude Scream for me Can't see Hey, oh my god, but I didn't have to go this hard All right, let's go walk up to this. What is this? Yo, he's already stalking us. He's right there Jenny I don't know. We should go there. I thought I saw someone. Yeah, definitely a ghost faces lurking That song is so it goes hard. Oh scream Right while that's some Intro for the video based on the character created by Kevin Williamson All right, I'm feeling this is gonna be a phenomenal game full parking All right, we have arrived to our destination Which is the location we are in? Hey now, of course, we're at the school. What a classic Is she barefoot? Oh like brush. He's stomping so loud. It's all like he's barefoot.  Knowing him he'll want to surprise me in the pool if he's inside the door must be open Right, you can't sprint just yet unless I'm I have the controls all wrong, but let's go to the door Typically you just shift the sprint, but it's not running I know we're gonna have to run for our lives in this game Either an act. All right. Here we go Tonight you will be mine. Don't try to escape. I close the doors and hit the key I'm going to change my clothes wait here or follow me. Why does it rhyme dude?  Jenny you to chill girl. Oh, what when he does that? What I can't wait. Oh, all right.  Dude, there's blood Yo, uh John what was his name dude, then my mask got slashed and dash no doubt Is this a joke? I Hear a phone Where's the phone? Okay, let's go look for the phone. Oh, no Okay, so there's the key right there. What the hell's going on here? I must find the keys Dude, he is chasing us. Oh my god. No, let's get out now. I am trying girl Trust me as long as she doesn't fall down like the horror movies, right? Oh My god, he's right behind us. Go go go. Okay, so I saw the key right there in the locker I don't know if I should even go in here. It's a dead end.  Oh, oh my god. He just missed How do you miss that? I don't know but let's keep on moving Oh, oh my god. Okay. He missed again. Okay. That's the exit. Oh It's not over It was in John Mr. Craven was here. Let's get out of here John could be in screw John John is dead girl. It's all about us now Okay, so dude is that John? Yo, my boy, you good.  I need a car. Okay run to the car. Oh My god, great. Oh My god him against someone must help me dude now what? He is chasing us. I better find a hiding place Where the heck am I gonna? Do I just run to a house? No, oh, I'll try the back of these houses. Oh We just died. Oh Man All right, we need to hide but I don't know where all right. What said behind the houses somewhere.   That's my plan to try to get him stuck behind these things. Oh My god, it doesn't leave us alone Please stop I'm just a poor innocent thick girl But oh, okay, this has to be the house because it's lit up This gotta be it. No. Oh my god. Here he comes This is gotta be it bro Okay, this is not it. I Just played myself What is he doing? He's just running in place. Okay, we need to find the house. What house gonna be? I guess we'll just run through every house And see which one we can hide through dude. I don't see him anymore Anybody home? No, but something He's right there. He's looking for me, bro. Oh My god, how did he even see me? I Was behind the trash Okay, go go go go No climb on the tree. Maybe Okay, you know what I feel like I'm just gonna let him kill me now because I can't find this house That we're supposed to hide in Wait, that one that one has a back porch. I felt like that might have been the house There you go. I was right. It was this house Where did he go? Okay, he's gone Yo, is that Chucky?   Alright you guys while that was scream Um, I don't know when the killer mode's gonna come out. I definitely can't wait for that I don't know if it's gonna be like an online multiplayer experience. That would be cool if it is I don't know man. Well, that is it. Thank you guys for watching. Thank you guys for the main support And I will see you on the next one


Hello traders at CMC Markets. This is Trevor Neal of ROG Research. I am presenting to you on the evening of Thursday the 17th and this is for Monday the Today we're going to look at stick with stock indices, mainly stock indices. We've got big rotation and which got to say that we did see coming. We saw the deterioration in the ROG charts of the US stock indices, particularly the tech stocks. We've been talking about that for several weeks. We saw the bearish divergences on the chart. So we'll have a look at that again. Now we're looking at Fibonacci retracements and the where the support levels are below, where this might end, how much of a correction are we likely to have. I would also look at the US treasuries because there's some sort of, to some people given the fall in inflation, a surprising move there and also the how the market, the sector rotation of the cyclical securities versus the staple securities is behaving. This is the people's reluctance to buy things which are discretionary as opposed to things which they need all the time like food. And this is showing up in the market too. So behind this stock market correction, there is also a sentiment in the economy as well that we can see. So that's what we're going to look at today. So let's get started with a look from the top at asset classes. Let us start right from the top. This is looking at asset classes using ETFs in order to represent the room. And you can see there's only one in the leading quadrant. That's the spider S&P ETF in the leading quadrant. In the improving quadrant, we've got the Dow Jones. We've got also the S&P small cap stocks as well, maybe turning up a little bit. Only just moving into the leading quadrant is the emerging market, but everything else, that's bonds, that's gold, that's Europe, is in the lagging quadrant. So US equities is the best place to be in the world at the moment. However, when we look at this weekly sampling of leading world indices, we see that we've got this movement, quite a swift movement down, a deterioration in the NASDAQ, also deterioration in the NICI, which has been driven by the currency there. The S&P versus the MSCI world, close to it, but blunted here. The Nifty is looking okay. The Dow Jones industrial average is in the improving quadrant, but with a short tail here, northeasterly direction, that's good. And then the Russell 2000 also rather blunted. The lagging quadrant is, and this is versus the MSCI world, is the DAX, the stocks, the CAC, the FTSE. Really, everything in Europe is down in here. Yes, US stocks are good versus the world, but they're not heading in a constructive direction, not in a northeasterly direction. And there's a deterioration here. There's a weekly sampling and we're going to look at this in the charts. We picked this up already a few weeks ago and this deterioration, but let's break it down now and look at some of the individual charts. Now, and the S&P chart, this is the daily chart of the S&P. Now we've seen the deterioration heading south in the ROG chart. And look what's happened here on the absolute chart. We have broken this key 4,450 level, broken it hard there. So this is a sign of some significant intermediate term top. The next support, which is minor, is at 4,385. But the big support comes from this low here at 4,340. This is also a previous high level. So that's a significant support level. And also it is approximately 4,300 is the 38.2% retracement of the advance from March to the high of last month. So I would say as a chartist, our teacher, this is that when you're looking for a retracement, I think it is a retracement in a bull market ultimately will continue on up. But we're looking at what is likely to be a severe retracement. You look for the first significant chart support level. And that is that previous high, this recent low, and also the 38.2. So the indication is here that we're heading towards the 4,300, 4,400 level. The MACD, it warned us. Remember, we were talking about this, the bearish divergence high, higher, lower height. So we had a strong feeling that this move had run its course at the beginning of this month. It has now turned down hard on the MACD and the gap is widening here. Now we saw the same with the bearish divergence in the RSI into this high here. And now we've come down hard and we're pointing down the still strong momentum on the downside. So this has deteriorated a lot with this one and looks like it's got quite a bit of room on the downside to come much lower. Now there's a daily chart of the Russell 2000 index. Now you remember from the ROG chart, it was in the improving quadrant and it was heading in a good trajectory when this was going on here, close to the high of the beginning of the year. But it reversed round and still inside the improving quadrant and reversed round warning us of this and this is what has happened now. This has deteriorated really awfully. It's tumbled from 2000 down to through the support at 1900. You would have expected it to respect that a little bit, but it didn't. And it's plunged further. It's gone through the 38.2% retracement of the rally from the March low. The next level, and usually if you break one Fibonacci level, we'll go to the next one pretty quickly, that's at 181847. However, really the support of any meaning doesn't come in until we're right down here in the 1800s. So we've got two highs in here at 1810. We've also got this low here at 1819. So 1820, let's call it there. So this is the area where significant support really comes in. So if it doesn't hold at the 50% level, 18,050, which is a sort of consolidation, then I think we're coming down to 1800 or 1820. This is a corrective move. I think we can still say that, but it's got a lot of power behind it. This is a really precipitous fall. Look at the MSED here. They've got widening in it. It's gaining momentum on the downside. RSI 2 plunge, plunge, but beware, we haven't seen this kind of reading in the RSI since March when we made the low. Yes, we can come lower, and I think it's likely we will, but beware that this is quite extended on its fall. The fall has been very rapid indeed in this one. Now to the NASDAQ. The NASDAQ 2 has tumbled. We were warned, and it has really come down hard. We saw the bearish divergence in it. We got high, high all through this until we had this lower high in here from the June high to the July high, the June high to the July high, and this warned us that there was lots of momentum into this top. The sell-off really started when the MACD crossed back at the end of July, middle of July, third week of July, sorry, the third week of July, and then it has tumbled since then, and now it's got a strong momentum on the downside with the gap widening here. The RSI, as you can imagine, it's the same. We didn't get a bearish divergence in it, but it has come down hard, and it is really down to the levels it was at these important lows back in March before its gigantic rise started. So it has broken the first level of support, which was this high from June at 15,200. It's broken that. It's deteriorating quite badly right now. The next support comes in at 14,600. It's not particularly strong. 38.2% retracement is 14,300, and we've got some support here at 14,200, but again, not very strong because this move was so rapid. There was very little trading at these prices. Very few people bought and sold things. I've got commitment to those levels because we moved swiftly through them. The pullbacks that we had were very small, and the balls took over very quickly. So we've got a lot of froth in this market. This one is holding up best so far as we see in the RRG. It's still the one furthest to the right in the RRG, but it is the most vulnerable to having a substantial back if it gets the bit between its teeth that the whole technology boom is over, and we're changing our mood from a very aggressive stance into a very defensive stance. A worry is also the bond market is the US 10-year yield chart, Treasuries yield chart, and inflation is cooling, and the government bond yield is increasing, and we're close to the highs we saw in October last year. I would say that the break of 4.25% is quite likely, but given the high level of momentum we've got here in the MACD, gap widening there, and on the RSI, soaring ahead here too. So we've got a lot of momentum here and trouble ahead potentially for the stock market as you have this risk-free, I say that in inverted commas, investment of US government-backed treasuries, and the cost of that is going up. The yield is going up, and a final word is looking at the relationship of cyclical stocks, so once which benefit from an aggressive outlook, a positive outlook for the market, and defensive stocks, the stocks that do well, things that people need to all the time food, and these sort of things, consumer staples is the main sector for this, and that people will always eat even if they haven't got much money, but other things like discretionary spending that we'll cut back on, so these tend to be quite cyclical with the economy. The yellow line on here is the USA, cyclicals versus divided by defensives. So when it's going up, the cyclicals, the things which we don't have to buy, but we choose to buy the luxury goods, and things like that, eating out, for example, as opposed to eating it is going up, but in the US it's just turned down here, so I wouldn't say it's a very strong definitive end of things forever, but it has turned down in recent weeks, in line with the stock market. People have become much more defensive in their spending, so this is not just a stock market related to correction, it's due to the sort of attitude of people and how they feel about the economy. There's also the case in Europe as well, the white line here is the case for Europe, cyclicals divided by defensives have been going up strongly, topping out, I'm not saying it's the end and we've had moves like this before, but it is, at this moment, the move in the indices, so this tradable indices, is reflected in the behavior of people and their views of the economy. I'll leave it there for this week, it's interesting, we've seen that follow through, we picked up the loss of momentum in RRG, three weeks, three, four weeks ago we saw those bearish divergences in the stock indices themselves, warning us that the highs that were made a few, only a few weeks ago were on low momentum and fragile, the markets have turned down in the US stock indices, only the Nasdaq is furthest to the right, but it's in the weakening quadrant and moving swiftly through that, only the S&P remains in the leading quadrant and that is moving south, so losing momentum. The Russell looked as though it was getting better but has turned down quite sharply and the chart looks terrible and all of the European stock indices are in the weakening quadrant, particularly the FTSE, which looks dire, so that's the background we've got, we've also got those structural problems with interest rates and also you can see with the cyclic rules how they're changing in their relationship showing that people are really heading for spending money only on the things that they need like consumer staples. I wish you a great week, thank you very much indeed for listening, this is me, Trevor Neal, I wish you all the best for the week, may the train be with you, goodbye.


Hi everybody, I am Dr. Ravi Jangamani, consultant nephrologist at Manipal Hospital Bangalore. For kidney failure patients, the kidney transplantation becomes the main modality of treatment and it is the best option available till date. For some patients, for kidney transplantation, they may not be able to get a matched blood group kidney donors within the families. In this scenario, we at our Manipal Hospital Bangalore are offering a unique transplantation program named SWAP kidney transplantation program. In this, patient can get a living kidney transplantation done at the same cost and also at the same immunosuppressive protocol as it is going on for the regular kidney transplantation. In this one, so patients with unmatched blood group donors receive a matched blood group donor by exchanging the donors. So by doing this SWAP kidney transplantation, patients can achieve a matched blood group kidney transplantation and also it provides an opportunity for the sensitized recipients to get a matched blood group donors also. As till date, the outcomes of SWAP kidney transplantations are as good as that of a regular kidney transplantation and it is at the same cost and at the same immunosuppressive therapy. As per the law for SWAP kidney transplantation, the donors should be within the near-relative donors. That means spouse, parents, siblings can get enrolled in exchange of the kidneys and undergo a SWAP kidney transplantation. Hence for the patients with renal failure and want to have a kidney transplantation, but they are facing problems with unmatched blood group donors within the family, please be aware about this SWAP transplantation and ask for it for your benefit.


Hi, I'm Geoff Watts and in this LiveBoltTalk we're going to look at situations when Agile doesn't work. Not every context or project is suitable for an Agile approach, and knowing when to push for an iterative incremental approach built around cross-functional, self-organising teams and when to stick to a more traditional predictive process built on chain of command is important. While every product and project is unique, there are thankfully some common variables to consider when weighing up whether to go Agile or not. The most important variables are predictability, volatility, complexity and appetite for risk. Predictability Traditional approaches are really valuable when we can confidently predict the needs of our users in advance. If, with enough research and planning, we can figure this out, then we arguably should avoid an Agile approach, because we would inevitably incur waste and rework from trial and error. If it's predictable, then put the effort in to predict it well. If, however, we're operating in an unpredictable environment, such as a new product or something that's too complex to be able to understand well enough to predict, then an Agile approach of trying something and responding to the resulting feedback is usually much more effective. Volatility Volatility refers to the degree of change that's likely during the time required to do the work. In general, the more stable things are, the more valuable the traditional predictive approaches are to us, because the planned-out approach is much more efficient. However, if change is highly likely, and this could be a change of requirements, technology, market conditions or anything else that may lead to a need to change our original plan, then an Agile approach will enable us to not only cope with those changes, but leverage them for our customer's competitive advantage. Our third variable is complexity. In general, the more complex something is, the less likely it is that one person will be able to understand enough about it and be able to manage the risks associated with it. And the less likely it is that we'll be able to predict things and plan things out. We'll typically need more people to directly collaborate, because it's unlikely that individuals will be able to predict how their actions will affect others in the workflow. In short, the more complex something is, the less time should be spent planning out the detail in advance, and instead, the more effort should be spent inspecting and adapting throughout the work. Our final variable is what I would call our appetite for risk. If I only have one shot at realising value, then one could argue that there is no point in delivering iteratively and incrementally. In fact, there could be an argument that I would increase my overheads because of the repeated inspect and adapt points, such as planning, review and retrospectives, that happen throughout an Agile process. However, this does somewhat depend on what I deem to be valuable, because value is not always just the amount of profit I make or market share that I accumulate. Value could be the amount of risk that I reduce. If my appetite for real risk is low, then I should adopt an Agile approach and find out where the product might fail as quickly as I possibly can. By assessing your areas of work against these four variables, you can get a quick guide as to when an Agile approach is suitable and when you'd be better to stick to a more traditional waterfall approach. I hope you enjoyed this lightbob talk. If you did, then please click the like button below. And if you'd like to be notified of when the next one comes out, just click subscribe. It only takes a second.


Hey, we're on, coming to you absolutely live from town meeting television studios in the old North end of Burlington. I'd like to thank you all for tuning in. My name is Andrew Champagne, and I'm the producer and host of this show. I'd like to thank a couple people today. My executive producer, Jordan Mitchell, my cameraman A, Daniel, cameraman B, Jackson, and always another person who helps me, Kevin. Thank you so much. Also, I'd like to thank Megan and Miss Lauren Glendividian and Emily, of course. We're glad to see you, everyone. I'm sorry if anyone was scheduled in last Tuesday. I was just feeling a little under the weather. The bright lights of television, I think would have been a little too much for me, but I feel great. We have so much to talk about. The first thing I'm gonna talk about, I must always talk about is COVID has not gone away. I saw Bruce Springsteen as COVID. I sure hope he's doing okay, but the only way COVID is gonna go away is if everyone gets their shots and boosters. For those out there who have not, there is a statewide number you can call about information about COVID. Also, information about if you're having trouble paying the rent, paying the gas bill. You may be an application for Three Squares program, which provides free food. Basically, food stamps is now called Three Squares. We're still so close to the COVID that we haven't psychologically, I think, really taken it all in. And for some people, COVID was very, very rough. One million people died. And so many hundreds of thousands of others are still dealing with COVID-like symptoms. There's a statewide number. We sometimes have put it up on the screen. I don't know if that's possible, Jordan. That is 211. Excellent. Now, we've got to talk about 211. I was told by a friend that the program is not used very often and is in danger of going away. Now, I think it's amazing. It's a statewide, a statewide number. So for the counties of, these are the 14 counties in Vermont. Addison, Bennington, Caldonia, Chinden, Essex, Franklin, Grand Isle, LaMoyle, Orange, Orleans, Rutland, Windham, Windsor and Washington, those are the 14 counties of Vermont that they can call that single number 211, okay? So I have a feeling unless that number is being used more often that it's not gonna make it. So if you do have any questions, excuse me, give them a call. And also if you think it's a good thing, call them and tell them it's a good thing. The last thing we need is a cut in social services right now, okay? So let's get to the democratic politics right off the bat. This is a democratic politically oriented show. So for the next 31 minutes, we're gonna talk about democratic politics, okay? Big, big news, the democratic national convention has been awarded to this great, the Windy City, Chicago. We're going to Chicago. The other two applicants were New York City and Atlanta. Now I think Chicago was a great choice. Right in the Midwest, there's a host of states that are up for grabs. It's a great union city, which Atlanta was not. And also it's in the heartland, which New York is not. There's plenty of hotels. There's 25 union hotels, so we love that. So I believe I was told the president has the final pick and he called the governor of Illinois personally and said, hey, you got it, we're coming to Chicago. That will be August 19th through the 22nd in the Windy City. Now, I think that's gonna be great. As someone who's been able to fortune it up to go to three democratic national conventions and be a delegate at a couple of them, it's really, really fun. And I think it was an excellent choice. And I will be running for delegate myself, hopefully supporting President Biden. Of course I will be. I'm endorsing him today. Big endorsement. I think the president is doing a wonderful job. But what the National Convention does is it puts the focus on the party, on the people. Not just the president, the vice president, the cabinet. You hear a great speech from a congressman or a senator or an ambassador or a functionary in the party. Maybe you didn't know.  I mean, all the way out to the West Coast and then the enormous Alaska and Hawaii and then the 48. So your version of politics in Vermont is different than the version of politics in Iowa or Idaho or Alabama or Illinois. So it's kind of this gorgeous mosaic that brings America together. And it's really funny. I can always tell the California people by their tan. So it's fun. The people watching, there's unbelievable musical guests. I'm sure President Clinton will be there. President Obama will be there. President Biden will speak. Vice President Harris will speak. You get some great people. And so I think it's great as going to Chicago. Also, the president has just returned from a fantastic trip in Ireland. And I think he very much feels his Irish Catholic roots. And that's great. And he was over there first visiting Northern Ireland. But his heart's in the, in Southern Ireland, in Ireland, not Northern Ireland. And he had a great few days there, a little bit of a vacation. Dr. Jill, since I've been on the air, Dr. Jill Biden was here. She came to the Burlington Airport and did a presentation about beach aircraft, which are electric aircraft. I believe my friend Thea Wurzberg, here she is. Oh, thank you, Jordan. She's great. My friend Thea Wurzberg was, I believe coordinated all that and did an unbelievable job. So Dr. Jill, she really adds a lot to the ticket. She has, she's still teaching college English. You know, that doctorate is in education. And she's for the kids. She's for the people. So that was a cool, cool trip for her to Vermont. She also went to Maine that day. That was a big, that was a big 20-state push by the president, the vice president, the cabinet. Dr. Jill, the second gentleman to promote the economic agenda of the Biden administration. And I think it was a big success. The president, he was talking to Al Roker of NBC News. The Today show and Al of course asked him, Mr. President, are you gonna run? And he said, I expect to. Now I'm thinking an announcement's gonna come in late May or early June. And you know, obviously I wouldn't be doing this show if I didn't think the president was doing an outstanding job. The Republicans as always are fractured. We'll talk a little bit about this. You know, since I've been on television, you know, terrible, the first president of the United States indicted on 34 counts. Now, Donald Trump must feel some shame. Okay, we're just gonna put that up for a minute, okay? I don't like that guy on my show. There he is, former president. He's caused a lot of problems in this country. He has been charged with paying what is called hush money.  He didn't want his wife to know. She was pregnant at the time and he had his attorney, guy named Michael Cohen, Mickey Cohen, paying her off $130,000. Now who pays the tax? Who, and then tried to deny it was hush money. Now, I'm glad this case was made. It pains me to see a president of the United States arrested. It's never happened before. But if you look at the facts, the indictments are very carefully written. I read the whole thing and the real crime, there were several real crimes of the Trump administration. One, using the White House as a business function. No other president has done that.  That he used the White House for a financial gain. And you know, I compare that with President Carter who was in hospice, okay? God bless him. Teaching Sunday school till he was 97 years old. The guy who cared about America started Habitat for Humanity, the greatest ex-president ever. And I think about the other presidents that I've grown up with and they were, for the most part, honorable people. So we have this indictment. You know, also I believe he's gonna get indicted in that arm. All right, hey, sorry. We had a little bit of technical difficulty there. What I did was with my foot and shoe, I pulled my microphone off, which is a faux pas in television. Daniel, thank you. Jackson, thank you. Jordan, I hope you're not mad. Okay, so we're getting back. Are you mad? No, absolutely not. So getting back to the president, I also think that, you know, he tried, he called the secretary of state. They have it on tape. And he tried to get this gentleman, to his credit, did not do it, to find him 11,380 votes. Now, to me, that is a much more serious charge. I hope the charge in New York sticks. It sounds like it happened as it did. But let the jury play out. Someone is innocent, he'll prove him guilty. But the lack of honor and class and that President Trump seems to possess is very frightening. Now obviously, palling around with Putin right before the Ukrainian war, you know, always speaking up for the Russians, okay? So, you know, you have to wonder about this guy. He's an anomaly. He's the worst, most crooked president ever. And thank God, he didn't lead us into a huge war. I'll tell you, his terrible antics with COVID led to a lot of people dying too early. So he really, when I think about it, I get so angry because I love the country so much that one person could really kind of almost ruin it, but he almost did. So thank goodness that secretary of state found those votes and found those votes and they found that they were correctly voted for Vice President Biden at the time. So, moving on, Trump's indicted. He's a crook and a bum, okay?  As I said, the president will be running again. Vice President Harris will be his running mate and we're glad about that. That's a good team. And I think things are really working out nationally. We see some of the other potential candidates, Governor DeSantis, Ron DeSantimonius as Trump. That's the one funny thing Trump ever said. I also see that Senator Tim Scott from North Carolina is looking at it. Former, I'm sorry, South Carolina. Former Governor Nikki Haley has already announced. Asia Hutchinson, the former governor of Arkansas has announced. On the Democratic side, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is considering running. Now, he has really turned into kind of a crazy guy. He's anti-vax, anti-this, anti-that. He'll be a marginal candidate and please don't tarnish the wonderful Kennedy legacy, Mr. Kennedy. Now, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Bobby Kennedy Jr. has done so many good things in environmental causes and the Hudson River and he's a professor. He seemed to have gotten off at a bit of a tangent. Also, I forgot her first name, I'm so sorry, and Ms. Williamson, who is kind of a, she's a speaker and a vocational speaker and very positive about humanity. She ran last time. Christine Williamson, I'm not sure her name is, but the road to the nomination for the president is for his for the taking. It's not like in the past couple of times where we've had primaries with Senator Sanders and so the president's looking good. Now, if the Republicans nominate President Trump, I mean, honestly, I think that's great for us because he's such a tarnished, weak, terrible candidate that I think we'll crush him, but if they stoop so low to nominate him three times then I really fear for the two-party system in America and maybe the two-party systems are not in the Constitution. The parties have changed. There used to be the Whigs, the No-Nothings, the Republicans were founded in the 1850s, the Jackson Democrats. If you look, there's been quite a few parties. You know, an independent party, a green party. Maybe we're better off with that in America, like four or five parties, a center left, like the current Democratic Party, a left, a far left, and then a center right, right and right. You see that the far left is not happy with the Democratic Party and the far right is not happy with the Republican Party. So we see this as kind of a cycle of American history. You know, Professor Schlesinger, Arthur Schlesinger, he always talked about how America kind of worked on a cycle about every 30 years. It was cyclical. And I think there's a lot of truth to that. You see, obviously, the election in 2016 was a wrap on the establishment and Mrs. Clinton was not able to connect in the Midwest and the South. And Trump, as a new candidate, was able to connect with that. I don't think we'll have this problem this time. I do think that if I have to bet, I would think the nominee would be Governor Santis, who is, he's really waging a far right fright campaign. You know, wants to ban certain books from library. Doesn't want any transgender athletes. Doesn't, not a supporter of gay rights. Is not a supporter of abortion. You know, as Roe versus Wade was overturned by that third judge that Trump was able to appoint, we see that the presidency has, even though President Trump is out of office, we see his three Supreme Court picks, Neil Gorich, Brett Kavanaugh, and Ms., Ms., I'm commonly for it, I believe her name is, that they, you know, there's no swing now, it's six, three. There used to be a five, four. That was kind of traditional for many years when I was a, you know, a younger person and growing up. Also, Clarence Thomas, a man who's taken, they said something like 100 trips with this billionaire and didn't report any of it. He was appointed by the first President Bush, that was in 1991, okay? Now, his conservatism and lack of imagination have really brought down the court. And him taking all these, he and his wife is another election denier, they've really kind of tarnished the Supreme Court. I would kind of be in favor of a 20-year term. The founding fathers, when the Constitution was written, the average life expectancy, I believe, was in the 50s. And I'm not sure they realized that someone could be on the Supreme Court could be 100 years old. So, okay, that's some national stuff. Let's see what we talked about. President's trip, the Trump stuff, the Republican candidates, the convention. Okay, now I'm gonna turn it to the state. We see, now, we could have some big news coming up here. I'm hearing some rumors that Governor Scott might not be running. Now, who knows if he even knows? Maybe that's all nonsense. But the feeling is after he's in his seventh year, that maybe Phil is tired of it. And being governor, it comes with a lot of work, but it also, you can't really lead a normal life. And I think Governor Scott misses that. I think he misses all the fun times racing his race car. And if he doesn't run, there he is. He's a good man for a Republican. That's for sure. No, he is a good man. He has won four times very convincingly against some pretty good opponents. And the thing that Governor Scott, his secret is he doesn't try to do too much. He has certainly not moved the state forward. I've talked about this on the show several times that if you go over to Johnson, Vermont, and then all the way up to Newport, that's about 60 miles, it's just a trail of tears. It's just these old, old, banged up towns with no young people, more people dying than are being born, severe opiate problems, very not great economic news, and just kind of banged up and beat up. Some of the towns up there have been in decline since World War II, that's 78 years ago, okay? And any more than a 25 year decline, you see out in the Midwest like the Rust Belt, it's sad because the intelligentsia leaves, the arts leave, the kids leave, you know, there's, I always thought there could have been a great college up in Newport. It would have been a great spot. It would have attracted probably a lot of kids from Quebec and a lot of kids from the North Country. But those counties up there, Essex, Lamoille, Orleans, they're really facing tough times. And I kind of wonder why the governor isn't kind of working on a North Country kind of bill of rights to get that thing going up there. You know, as we know, Burlington, Chinden is booming, but as I listed all the 14 counties before, about 10 of them are not. Washington County, William Mopilier is doing well, Brattleboro is doing okay, White River is picked up.  And we also have a very high concentration of elderly here. So we're facing some problems. Governor Scott did an excellent job on COVID. He's an honest, very fine, efficient governor. But is he an inspired governor, like former Governor Peter Schumlin? I don't know if we have his picture up there, Jordan. I'd love to see that. That's my guy there. I found that he was the best governor that I had encountered and always full of new ideas and new visions. And he was a real breath of fresh air, Peter Schumlin. Governor Scott is more your traditional governor. We'll see what happens with him.  Now there's also been some talk that perhaps Mayor Murrow Weinberger, we must have a picture of him, Jordan, is thinking about possibly running. Yay, there he is. You did a great state of the state, Mr. Mayor, if you're watching this program. So as I was trying to go from federal to statewide to city, but we're jumping to Murrow. Murrow, the state of the state speech was outstanding and we also swore in two new democratic counselors. So the progressives don't have a majority or anywhere close to it. And they are still, you know, they are a strong group in Vermont and excuse me, in Burlington and especially in the neighborhood where I'm broadcasting from, the historic Old North End, the progressives run great campaigns. They're very people-oriented. They've done a lot for Burlington. They really care. But the mayor is, you know, I wouldn't be surprised if he's thinking about running for governor because I think Governor Scott has to feel that, hey, eight years is enough. Now the thing that a lot of people don't know who are in Vermont all the time is there's only two states that have the two-year term. And that is, excuse me, that is New Hampshire and Vermont. So, you know, sure it might seem typical to us, but us in Vermont and New Hampshire a two-year term, but the other 48 states have a four-year term. I favor a four-year term.   So we'll see what happens. There would also be Lieutenant Governor David Zuckerman would be a strong candidate, perhaps speak, hey, there he is, Zuck, good man. Re-elected again, good for him. He campaigns hard, he's a good man. He cares about people. Also, Speaker Jill Kroinsky, I could see her potentially running for governor, perhaps Senator Keisha Rom-Hinsdale. So we got some good candidates, and also State Treasurer Mike Pitchek. Well, those are great Democrats right there. Maybe former Speaker Mitzi Johnson, maybe Matt Dunn, I'm trying to think. These are good people. So, when I talk about, let's, before I wrap up, I have 11 minutes, I wanna talk about the Vermont Democratic Party's annual dinner. It's called the Curtis Hoff Awards, okay? And David Curtis was a man, he was a former state rep. He actually started out as a Republican as kind of saw the light in the 70s and was a state rep. But he was a gay man and he unfortunately contacted AIDS, but he did not hide about it. He had a lot of courage. He lived till 1999 and he passed away from AIDS. And also Governor Hoff was the first Democratic governor ever elected in Vermont in 1962. So it's called the Curtis Hoff Awards. It's gonna happen May 12th, I believe it'll be at the Sheridan. And we've just announced three award winners. The first one is Senator Cheryl Hooker from Rutland, someone who's been in politics I think for 40 plus years who took on the fat cats and bureaucrats in the anti-unionists in Rutland. The second one is my dear friend Ryan McLaren who was the campaign chair for Congressman now Senator Peter Welch. Can we put his picture up there, Jordan? So Congressman Welch is very proud of Ryan and I am too. He's a wonderful guy, also coach, areas also coach at Burlington High School, go see horses, lacrosse, go to lacrosse game everybody, it's fun. And then the third winner was my also good friend, Natalie Silver, who was the campaign chair for our new Congresswoman, Becca Ballant. We have a picture of her too, yay. Nat Silver from Bennington, Vermont is now going to George Washington Law School. So these three winners, Senator Cheryl Hooker, Ryan McLaren and Natalie Silver will all be congratulated, awarded. They will all speak at our dinner. It's May 12th, if you go to vermontdemocraticparty.com you can find out all the information. I will attend that, it's fantastic. The Curtis Awards are a real honor. I was fortunate to win one, I can't believe it, 10 years ago, 2013. So congratulations to all the winners. I'd like to thank David Glidden, the chair of the VDP. I'd like to thank Jim Dandano. I'd like to say hello to Sheldon and Justin and Kate Lap and the whole crew, Jenny, I appreciate all their good work. We have our main office in Main Street in Montpelier. And so it's always been there because that's where the legislative session is going on. So now the session has reached the point where bills have proceeded. There's a day in the middle where bills either go forward or they don't make it. And now the bills now are going forward. The session will end in about five weeks, six weeks, and they're still working on things like paid family leave. They're working on more economic stuff, try to bolster the economy in Vermont, which needs it.  I was over in New Hampshire this weekend and driving through Caledonia and Orange counties and they're having hard times. They're banged up. They're not doing well. You don't see any young people. You don't see any new development. A lot of those places, the cell service is non-existent. So we need to go, as Governor Shublin always spoke, God, every time I ever saw him, he talked about 100% broadband. You cannot move forward as a society. I don't think you can go to school now without a computer. I should hardly talk. I'm not a computer person, but I see the value in the rural areas. So I have about seven minutes left. So let's, we're gonna talk a couple more issues. So again, the Curtis Awards are May 12th. I believe it will be at the Sheridan, I'm not sure. Why don't we go to VDP.com? But I'd like to thank those winners. Also, getting back to Moreau, he gave a very good state of the city address, talking about public safety, talking about economics, talking about infrastructure, trying to, we have a very old housing stock in Burlington. So what are we gonna do about that? Still retain our historic flavor, but our housing, some of it's very old and some of it's banged up. I guess I've been using that word too much today, so we'll forget about that. I have about six minutes left. So what I'd like to talk about is someone is watching this show is not registered to vote. Let's talk about ways you can do that. You can go to the city clerk's office, which is on Main Street, 149 Main Street, church in Maine, and you can fill out the form. You can give me a call, Andrew Champagne,<PHONE_NUMBER>. Hey, there we go. It's funny to see your own number up there. Call today. Okay, so we see in a lot of Republican-dominated states especially when they have the House, the Senate, and the Governor, when they run the full gamut, they have all three offices that they're pushing some very crazy stuff through. We saw about this incident in Louisville where these three state representatives were justifiably upset, apoplectic, about the murder of five people in Louisville and went on the House floor, and sure maybe caused a little bit of a stir, but there aren't many issues that are life or death but proper gun control is life or death and they were expelled from the Tennessee House. Now there's, to this is great. The city council in Nashville promptly put them back in and I believe there's gonna be a special election. They will be back, but we see, that reminds me of fascism. That reminds me of something in the 1930s that maybe they were slightly inappropriate. They used a bullhorn, they were angry, but we're talking about children being shot dead with automatic weapons, okay? As Bill Clinton famously said, I've never known anyone to go hunting deer with an automatic rifle. They obviously have to be banned. I mean, unfortunately with this Republican-dominated Supreme Court, they take a literal view of the Constitution. Okay, so I have about four minutes left. Again, I'd like to thank the crew on site today. My executive person, Jordan Mitchell, Jackson and Daniel and Emily, Kevin and Epsencia, Miss Lauren Glendividian, Megan. I'd also like to say hi to my former producer, Jordan Butterfield, who is back in school and I wish you the best, Jordan. And thanks for all your help. Now, okay, the last three minutes of the show, we're just gonna talk about what's going on for the next few months. So this is supposedly off-year, but it feels so busy. We're gonna see what happens with some Supreme Court decisions on affirmative action about perhaps the day after abortion pill, gun control. We're gonna see some stuff about that. The Congress will be pretty much in a stalemate because the House Republicans are so far right that they can maybe get some stuff through the House narrowly. I think they have a six-vote majority, but they can't get through anywhere through the Senate. So we're not gonna see a lot of political progress in the House. And I believe the last time I checked, their approval rating was 9%. So that means 91% of the people in the poll thought they were doing a poor job. Now, the Senate is where you're gonna see some more action with great new senators and a lot of cool senators re-elected. We had an excellent Senate midterm. Senator Peter Welch is off to a fine start. Congresswoman Becca Ballant on the Budget Committee. That's great. Senator Bernie Sanders, chair of the Budget Committee and always the heart of the soul of the Democratic left in America for the last about 20 years. Can we put a picture of our friend Senator Sanders up there? He's a good man and he cares.  So I'm letting you know, I think Senator Sanders will run. I don't know if he's decided but I'd like to say hello to him and Jane. There he is. Okay, done a lot for America, done a lot for Vermont. Former, when I first came to Burlington, he was mayor. Mayor, Congressman, Senator, presidential candidate. Wow. My cameraman Jackson's a big Bernie fan so he's enthusiastic. There he is. You know, they have a lot of old archival programs of Senator Sanders, Mayor Sanders and the old days. Now, Jordan is also the archivist here and if you're interested in any kind of thing, it's available here and it's really brilliant. TownMeetingTV, they did such a great job covering TownMeeting. TownMeetingTV, it says it all. Now, I have about one minute left. I believe when the clock goes to six, so we're gonna be gone. So I'd like to thank you. We were all over the place this week. Sorry about the week absence. We did a lot of stuff nationally, internationally, state, federal, local, and also even down to the wards in the city council. So I think we covered it all. I'd like to thank everyone and I hope you have a great day. We're gonna tune out now. Again, two on one on the COVID, Andrew Champagne signing out. Please register to vote. Keep following politics and I will talk to you next month. Thank you.


We're back with the breakfast and plus TV Africa this morning, and just with six days to the end of 2022, we'll take an in-depth analysis of government's policy efforts. Now, some of the most talked about economic policies of 2022. Now one of such economic policies is the RT200 Forex Programme, that's the FX. Of course in February, the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, introduced a raise to $200 billion dollars in FX Repatriation Programme. Now it was the government's show of seriousness in tackling its dwindling foreign exchange, reserve and adopting other means of, you know, revenue generation aside from oil. Now fast forward, the program was designed to ensure that Nigeria ranks in $200 billion dollars in FX Repatriation exclusively from non-oil exports in the next three to five years. Now one of such is that we have the limit on dollar spending, as was one of such of it. Now Amiti Forex crunched in the country, the banks had announced a reduction in dollar spending limits on the Naira denominated debit cards, in much the Nigerian government and the Nigerian banks reduced the limit on Naira cards from $100 to $20 monthly, while some banks suspended the usage of Naira cards for international transaction. Months later, Nigerians were thrown into panic when several African FinTech also shut down their virtual dollar card services that was really affected. Godwin and Mephile, governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, that's the CBN, admitted that there was, you know, a significant FX shortage in the country and acts banks, some banks, to come up with a solution to boosting inflow, whether or not that happened, you know, it's a conversation for another day. Another of such policies that was talked about is the sugar tax. Now Nigerians were, just as Nigerians were recovering from the dollar spending limits on the cards, that's on June the 1st, the federal government began the implementation of sugar tax of 10 Naira per liter on all non-alcoholic carbonated and sweetened beverages in the country. The policy embedded in the Finance Act of 2021 was designed to discourage excessive consumption of sugar in beverages and raise revenue for health related and other critical expenditure. I know that the health sector actually embraced that, you know, with an open arm, but it was not the same for the manufacturing sector. We had, you know, the back and forth. Now these are some of the policies, but in the course of the conversation, I'm sure that we would definitely have to mention some of this talked about economic policies. Now let's, you know, have our guest join us this morning. He's an economist, and he's also public affairs analyst, Kelvin Emmanuel joins us this morning from the FCT. Thank you so much, Kelvin, and Merry Christmas. Thank you. Thank you so much for having me. Merry Christmas to you too. Let me get your thoughts on, you know, some of this economic policies that the government had put in place just to ensure that, you know, we have a smooth warning of the economy that life was easy for the people, Naira redesign, cash limits, which these are recent policies, sugar tax, and what have you, what are your thoughts on them? Like, thank you. Like I've always said, I don't think Naira design and the draw limits, the solution to the problem that Nigeria has had. Look, there is, I say this, there is one major issue on the exit polls for 2023 elections. It's not tribe, it's not religion. It's not all the shenanigans that we used to in political campaigns in Nigeria. It is inflation and the economy. Inflation, inflation, inflation. Nigerians are asking why the prices of sugar has gone up. They're asking why the price of kerosene has gone up by 1140 percent, from 830 Naira to 947 Naira, and over 1,000 Naira at the pump stations. Nigerians are asking why the price of PMS has gone up from under 800 Naira to over 200 Naira and over 250 in some occasions in Nigeria because of the cost of distribution around the country. Now, on the usual petrol subsidy, I am a proponent of removing petrol subsidy and deregulating to incentivize investments and building refineries in Nigeria, commercial sized refineries. I'm a proponent of that because I think it's ridiculous for the government to spend a second to 5 percent of its budget on subsidizing PMS in its direct sale direct purchase agreement. But you look at the IoT 200 program, for example, and you consider why the program has not succeeded and why for the $10 billion that the program has attracted, which is 5 percent of its target. Now, I don't think that if you set a target where you have a KPI and you achieve 5 percent of your KPI out of 100 percent, you consider it successful. I don't think you consider it successful. So you can imagine the central bank using $190 million US dollars to incentivize $10 billion worth of inflows in diaspora remittances and NXP proceeds. I don't think that's a success. If the central bank of Nigeria says that that's a success, I don't understand what they're talking about because the real issues, for example, why FX dollars are not coming into Nigeria and you know, there are four major sources of FX for the central bank. Number one, you have trade finance, which are your NXP proceeds, proceeds you guess from export, export NNs. Okay. Number two, you have your oil receipts, oil and gas receipts, oil receipts, which is what you get from your production sharing contracts, from your joint venture agreement between NNPC and its JV partners. You and I know that the central bank said that the $30 billion monthly NNPC was remittance to the federal government in 2014 has dropped nearly $0.00 in 2022. And why? The issues are because of the drastic drop in production output at several fields and stations in Nigeria, crude oil tax, that in my opinion, I believe is organized. Okay. Then you have diaspora remittances, which is the mainstay of the economy right now, the major source of FX for Nigeria that remitts over $20 billion, which I believe should be leverage for Nigerians in diaspora to actually use in negotiating like a clause in the Electoral Act that gives them the opportunity Nigerians in diaspora to vote as absentee ballots in forthcoming elections in Nigeria. Yeah. And the reason, when you look at the fact that, and then the thoughts and final very cool for FX into Nigeria is actually foreign direct investment. FBI is foreign portfolio investment and FDI is foreign direct investment, votes speculative and non-speculative, speculative and mostly portfolio investment, FPLs, non-speculative or foreign direct investment. And I'll tell you what, the reason why IoT 200 program has not been successful is because institutional investors cannot find the forward curve to price risk for bringing in investments into Nigeria. Companies that end FX cannot find a way to maximize their earnings because when they bring in their FX, they are forced to sell it off at the investor and exporter dealer window at the official market rates. And then you have that wide go between $446 and $740. How can you be asking a company that end $10 million to sell its FX at $446 and $4.4 billion when it can sell it at the parallel market and end $7.4 billion? The companies are opting for opening foreign accounts and diverting their NXM proceeds of trade finance to foreign destinations or they actually use it to buy machinery and equipment they need abroad or they don't need, send it to Nigeria, sell it off and get the street values what and what they were supposed to end. So you are asking companies to get $65 million for $10 million in exchange for getting a difference between $7.4 billion and $4.4 billion, which is about $3 billion. Are companies going to opt for being patriotic to the country to making profit for their business? My guess is the latter is the answer to the question. So you can just understand why there has been a disconnect and then you have the issue of monetary policy and fiscal policy and how there has not been a correlation or synergy between the fiscal authorities and the monetary policy which is the central bank of Nigeria. You have seen that for 10 consecutive months in 2022 there has been a hike in the inflation rates and the central bank has also followed with the corresponding hike in the monetary policy rates and you consider that the cost of capital has become more expensive, the central bank has required banks to raise its cash reserve ratio which is the amount of cash it has in its votes and bring it back to the central bank of Nigeria as a means to bring in all the cash into the banking system and reduce the cash in circulation which is leading to currency hooking whereby the people who have cash are charging an interest to give trade their cash, a fiscal cash with people who need cash and don't have it. So you can see all the disconnect and the reason why you have inflation in Nigeria, it's both cost-push and demand-push, cost-push so much cash pursuing too few goods from issues like ways and means lending, violation of that window by 105 times from the $500 million limit to about the $23.7 trillion where we have it right now, $49.2 billion and then demand-pull, demand-pull in the sense that you have a situation where the economy is not producing enough to meet up with demand and this structural defect is also because of the exchange rate, the demand is not available and companies are finding it difficult to source the raw materials they need to actually produce and the import substitution lever to substitute for the products especially in enterprise manufacturing that consumer manufacturing needs to produce is not available and for example you can see that with several commodities, you can see it with energy in diesel, DPK, you can see it in food and you know food and energy makes up the basket for calculating inflation in Nigeria, you can see it in food in sugar, in starch, in wheat, flour, especially is a major cost of situation we have in Nigeria today. So for me I believe that the fiscal and monetary authorities are not together, they don't communicate well, there has not been the political will to take the hard decisions necessary for you to create a full market economy and move Nigeria from the government providing subsidy which it doesn't have the liquidity to do to a market economy where the private sector is brought on board to be able to engineer growth and drive the creation of jobs in Nigeria. I'd like to find out from you, I mean just as I asked you know another question but this is actually in comparison with the developed climate economy, are you saying that you know subsequent policies that have been talked about in 2022 like you know cash limit redesign of the currency, limit on the you know the dollar and what have you is a fallout from the ROT 200 FX program? No it's not a fallout, the ROT 200 FX program is actually like a program that was designed to create incentives for dollars to come into Nigeria but the problem, the reason why ROT 200 is not successful is because you have a situation where investors were finding it difficult to reconcile the fact that they could not price risk. How can you have a difference between the official and parallel markets to the tune of about 300 Nair and the government is bringing dollars into Nigeria, you don't have the means to take it back because if you bring your dollars into Nigeria, when you want to take it back you need dollars, if you convert it to Nair you need to convert it back to dollars to take it back, CBI will not provide you with dollars, for example you can see that with the airlines, the airlines have a backlog of about 700 million dollars and I dare to say, I dare to say that the major reason why Emirates cancelled Nigeria and the UAE government restricted Nigeria from coming into the UAE for tourist visas where people were under 40, it has majorly, it has everything to do with the fact that Emirates was finding it difficult to repatriate over 200 million dollars it has stuck in Nigeria and they couldn't find dollars to repatriate with. You have the number of companies that have a backlog of 7 to 8 billion US dollars, the CBI doesn't have the dollars to provide them. And when you have a situation like this, what happens, companies cannot go to the black market because if they go to the black market, they don't have, there's no liquidity in the black market to provide them or they have to sacrifice all their profits and even some of their revenues to be able to get the dollars they need to move on. How can you do business in Nigeria and then the external risk of devaluation and inflation is actually greater than the internal rate of return? And then you have to sacrifice all your profits even more to be able to repatriate your money. So their money is either stuck in Nigeria or their private risk and they are telling themselves that look there's no false market in Nigeria that will help us to hedge the external risk. Calvin, so we're able to look at all the aspects of this conversation. You know just before we delve into others, for instance, the ROT 200 FX program. Now and if you look at the FDI, you find out that the United States seem to be topping the charts followed by China. And I'd like to find out what they're doing differently from the Nigerian economy. I mean, what are these guys doing differently that's putting them on top of the charts in terms of the FDI? Calvin? I'm with you. Calvin, can you hear me or did you hear my question? Yes, I can hear you. Alright, so I'm asking the United States is now the world's top destination for FDI and followed by China. My question is what exactly have these countries done to put them on top of the charts? What are they doing differently from Nigeria? Look, China has 25% of, one out of every four ships that seems around the world comes out of China. China has 25% of global manufacturing. China, Brazil, India, Russia and South Africa controls 40% of global trade. Those five countries alone. If you want to understand China and how it became the manufacturing capital or warehouse of the world, or factory of the world, like they call it today, you have to go back to the 1980s. You have to go back to Zouanlai and then to Koba for a manpower miles ago. You have to go to the Silk Road program and how China was able to create a 50-year development plan to build its regions into the enterprise manufacturing capital of the world. China has a strategy. Nigeria doesn't. If you want to understand the U.S. economy, you have to understand the fact that number one, America has the world's reserve currency. One more than 175 countries in the world recognize the U.S. dollar as a global legal tender. You travel with the U.S. dollar, you can exchange it anywhere in the world. America can afford to use that quantitative easing to drive economic growth. America has the most capitalized stock exchange in the world. America is perceived as the most stable country in the world. When there is a global crisis, for example, the crisis in Ukraine, you can see that the U.S. dollar index has had the most rally and is actually as the strongest right now, because whenever there is a crisis anywhere in the world, especially in military crisis, when we had the COVID pandemic, investors ran to the U.S. When the Russian-Ukrainian war started, you ran to the U.S. So you have to realize that for you to succeed as an economy and as a country, you need a deliberate plan. You need a short, medium, and long-term plan, and you need the political will to back the execution of that plan. Look, Nigeria is not short of genius policy programs. What Nigeria is short of and lacking of is actually the political will to implement those policy programs to grow Nigeria. For example, Nigeria can feed the entire African continent, but it lacks the political will to create the both sides and put the structures in place to ensure... Unfortunately, we have been disconnected with Kelvin now. Kelvin, you can continue with your thoughts. It lacks the political will to put the both sides in a structural place to ensure that Nigeria is the food capital of Africa. Look, it's my view that Nigeria should drive the AFCF framework that integrates the 54 countries in the entire African continent. Look, it's cheaper for you to ship products from Nigeria to Australia or Nigeria to the U.K. or Nigeria to Rotterdam in the Netherlands or Nigeria to China. It's easier for you to fly from Nigeria to Amsterdam, from Nigeria to Abuja to JFK than it is for you to travel within the African continent. Nigeria needs a customs union. It needs a monetary union, and it needs integration of trade within the continent. So let me ask you a two-in-one question. That's because we're out of time. Now, what do you make of the rationale behind some of the most talked about economic policies for 2022? For instance, the sugar tax is that there should be, you know, this courage excessive consumption of sugar. That's what it is. Of course, the health sector embraced it, but the manufacturers were not finding it very funny. That's on the one hand. We also know that the issue of the limit on the dollar card or transaction, what have you, was because of the forex issue. Now, I'd like to ask you, looking at some of these policies that we have mentioned, the ROT200, you know, to the sugar tax, what have you, the redesign, all of the reasons that have been given, do you think that are irrational enough? What do you make of the rationality behind all of these policies? On the issue of sugar tax, and then on the other side, the health sector lodging the federal government for raising the means for the courage excessive consumption. I think you might want to look at the high-fructose alternative to the 45% that is imported into Nigeria, from mostly South America, as in India, for which Nigeria has like a 1.2 billion dollar import bill yearly, and has three major companies bringing in sugar into Nigeria. I also think the government might want to look at the replacement for using Sub-Itor, which is like a tertiary, advanced form of sweetener, that is gotten from, can you get it from cassava, you can get it from potato, you can get it from corn, okay, as an alternative, actually a cheaper alternative to the 45% sugar. Okay, you're raising the sugar tax by 10% is only going to add to the vats, because the manufacturers are going to pass that cost back to the consumers. The only problem with that is it's going to raise the cost of manufacturing, the cost of doing business. So yes, on one side it's a health hazard measure that the government is using to discourage excessive consumption. On the other side, it's actually a revenue earner for the government, which on the other hand creates more havoc for ease of doing business and the cost of doing business in Nigeria, which is at an abysmal low, is a source of worry to a lot of companies in Nigeria, both for the ones existing and for the ones who plan to come in. We probably need to be looking at the second conversation at this point in time. Thank you so much for being part of the show. We thank you so much and we wish you a Merry Christmas once again. Thank you for having me. Have a great holiday. Kevin Emmanuel is an economist. He joined us this morning from the FCC. Thank you so much and have a wonderful Christmas and a prosperous New Year. We take a break when we return a belief in the allocation of one billion nair for constitutional amendments, which probably might just not see the light of day. Stay well.