So we looked last day We looked last day at half-life at what we practiced some more exponential growth-word problems We said they all fit this template of a equals a zero c to the t over p. They may use different letters For example, I notice in number one Way back here. They're using and and n zero and instead of t over something t over p it looks like whatever that over p was as a fraction as a decimal it was point four three So instead of writing it as a fraction they wrote it as a decimal fine. I can deal with that Here as well instead of using or they are using a but instead of using t they're using n for the number of years fine I can deal with them Were there any of these that you were wondering about I assigned you a bunch. I'm going to be assigning you a few more today go in once Number five Figured someone would ask number five. Did you try number five? Okay, since I've just turned the page. I'm going to do this. I think a Equals a zero c to the t over p. I'm going to write down my little template equation Westlap Carson Okay, I'm pretty sure this 500 is my initial amount. Is that okay? I'm pretty sure this 150 is my final amount. Is that okay? We lose 18 percent, which means I think we keep 72 percent So far so good and It's each time we go through a filter now I've got to translate this a bit. This is not in terms of time But I think my period is every filter every one filter is when we lose 18% wouldn't it be point eight two because I can't do math. Thank you 18 minus how about point eight two? good gosh and They want the number of filters, you know what I'll call that n instead of t because t is time But the it's fitting the same idea instead of years passing its filters passing. Is that okay so far? You got that part? Or not? No, okay now when you solve this Anybody solve this? Did you get this one? What'd you get for your m or your t when you solved it? Okay, so I think you get this You need six point one filters and if you look in the back they did not round it down To six they rounded it up to seven and the reason is it does say less than a hundred and fifty Less than a hundred and fifty grams You know what by round down six filters is not going to be enough just shy of being enough That all right oh See she actually did attach a check to the note Dear mr. Do it. Here's a check That's how you belay That's a bit of a tricky one I probably won't give you one that strangely worded on your test in fact almost certainly It's gonna be a half-life question and some kind of a population growth or population loss question Any others? nine Okay This one is so easy that it's tough and here's what I mean first of all I did in my mind underline the word half-life that tells me that see it's gonna be point five I'm gonna write down my template a equals a zero c to the t over p Who asked me number nine? Amanda what are they asking me to find here? Well, you know what let's use a process of elimination. What's this 30? And we'll give you a hint. It's an amount. It's either the final amount or the initial amount Absolutely. Oh, it's a half-life question. I know see is point five. That's how half-life is defined It's a growth rate of point five. You lose 50 percent every time What's this 12? Well next to it is the word years. I Think that's the total time and we said your growth period is also your half-life Amanda when they tell me The half-life is five point two. They're saying that goes there You know what they're asking me to find in this question. How much we start out with is that okay so far is This an exponent How would I get it by itself then What's happening between the a and the bracket?  Point five to the power of twelve over five point two and this is straight calculator now I'm gonna go on my calculator 30 divided by Point five to the power of how many terms are there in my exponent Amanda? How many numbers are there in my exponent? Two I better use brackets You know how much you need to start out with a hundred and forty eight point five What does it say to the year's gram hundred and forty you need a hundred and forty nine grams if you want at least thirty grams left over after twelve years Is that okay? Yep, and so I guess my point is I can ask you to solve for this or this as Well as these exponents now if I'm asking you it's all to solve for one of the ones that's an exponent log both sides I'm asking you to solve for one of the ones that's on ground level Just Multipliered of its calculator plug-and-chug and a bit of arithmetic Is that all right? Yep Okay, give me a favor, please Could you turn to page 204 page 204 what we need to talk about today is base e I'm wearing my base e-shirt e it's a scrabble tile and a number It is I made this one up myself actually this was my idea and on the back I have an exponential graph because as Kirsten knows every single exponential graph looks like this or so If you have a base of two it looks like this give a base of e it looks like this remember We said e was this weird strange number e was second function e e was two point seven one eight two eight one eight two It and it looks like your repeats it does not write off your page It goes all haywire in fact if you want E to about 1,000 decimal places here. It is Why is base e? So useful remember this fishing question here Here's what we were doing mathematically when we solve this by having it decreased by five percent each year on January 1st there would be 2,500 fish on December 1st there would still be 2,500 fish on December 31st there would still be 2,500 fish but on December 31st at one minute to midnight boom you lose five percent and Then all throughout the year the fish population stays the same and Katie just before midnight on New Year's Eve Boom you lose another five percent. Is that how populations really work? I think Cassandra populations grow Continuously when you have a big enough population the human population for example There are babies being born every split second not nothing happening until boom right before you move on to the next growth Period and then all the growth occurs Most things grow continuously All the time You know what base is the most useful what base best describes Populations that grow continuously as soon as you the population that's fairly big in the millions Let's say you know what base best describes how they grow base e We call it the continuous growth rate This is why base e is so useful Kirsten as soon as your population is big you can reasonably assume look we're not having a baby every five hours We're having a baby now now in fact even faster than I can snap my fingers as soon as your population is big The growth is occurring instantaneously. It's a much better mathematical model for large populations So the university population an example one Increased by four point five percent per year this increase probably occurred at the beginning of each semester You don't gain university students in February You gain university students in September and you gain them in January so their base e wouldn't make much sense But if you're looking at a bacteria that's spreading base e would make a lot of sense because that beat bacteria is Spreading viral effect. We even use that word in English now. It's we talk about videos going viral. It describes exponential growth It's a base e question Other populations such as the population the world increase at a continuous rate and the formula for continuous growth And I will give you this one on a test. You don't have to memorize this one is that Now you can make an educated guess as to what most of this means Steph, what do you think p zero means? Yep, and you know what p by itself means final your base is e now remember That's not a letter looks like a letter to me. Mr. It's a symbol. It's a number your bases 2.71828182 your bases there Hey Steph, what do you think t stands for? Time and then k stands for your growth constant instead of writing t over p because with base e You don't want to growth period because you want it to be happening all the time You don't want to half-life. You want it to be happening all the time. We don't write it as a fraction We write it as a decimal in front and we call that the growth constant What do we use the letter k because not every single English word math is not all done by English speaking people It was a word for constant in a different letter that began with k. Oh Steph here it is p zero is the initial population P is the final population k is called the growth constant If you're increasing k is positive if you're decreasing k ends up being negative because that's what gives you a negative decay graph Here's an example The intensity i zero of a light source is reduced to i after passing through d meters of a fog According to the formula i equals i zero e to the negative point one two d now first of all How many of you have been in the fog at night before? And if you've driven or been a passenger while driving You'll notice the further away the light goes the dimmer it gets your headlights don't work very far away And you know what it makes sense that that would be a continuous growth because every micro millimeter that you move Your headlights have dimmed by a tiny bit It's not like your headlights are all the same for one meter and then they dim and all the same for one meter And then they give I think every split every split millimeter that you move every split micrometer that you move every spec nanometer That you move the headlights have changed by a tiny bit the strength of the headlights have changed in the fog So the base e this makes sense What's the negative in the exponent telling me? The intensity is getting smaller Okay in what distance oh What do they want me to find here Holly? Which variable do you think stands for distance in the original equation take an educated wild guess from your knowledge of math? You're right D, which means they're probably going to tell me I is your initial intensity and I file final intensity To the nearest hundredth of meter will the intensity be reduced to one quarter of its original value okay? That means they're gonna tell us this and they're gonna tell us this and Remember e is e we're gonna use the letter e on our calculator The key phrase is this last phrase this tells me my final intensity What's my final intensity? What you know what I'm gonna be clever. I'm gonna let it be one quarter point two five if you don't mind And if I do that what's my initial intensity? one By the way, you could also don't write this down. You could also have done final intense initial of four final of one You could also have done Initial of eight final of two That's one quarter. You all wrote Point two five and one there leave that there Don't write this down Supposing I had gone. I'm gonna let my final be One and my initial be four. I would don't write this down. I would plug this into the equation What would I do with that four? I would divide right away and you know what I get over on this side One divided by four, which is what? Point two five, which is why I said to you the other day if they ever give you like a half a population Or one-third a population you can use the original and then divide by three or double or you can just use ones And twos and threes and the ones it's it's much more convenient So I'm gonna do that. Let's see. We said we're gonna let our initial be one our final be point two five And that's gonna give me now you can write this down point two five equals one times e To the negative point two D Ashley will this one make any difference when I divide it over? Okay, I'll leave it there to remind us that we put it there But it's gonna vanish on the next line if that's okay Ashley, where is the D sitting because that's what they want me to find Exponent you know, I'm gonna do up. I'm not gonna take the log of both sides. What's my base? E, you know what I'm gonna take of both sides Ln Yeah, Ln of both sides, which is another base that are this is why your calculator has that base built in actually Ln of both sides. I'm gonna go Ln of point two five and I usually hand write Ln because I'm worried if I print Ln I'll think that's one and later on because I'm stupid that way because that looks an awful lot like that one You don't have to if you're writing looks different from mine, but my printing. Yeah, so I'm gonna hand write Ln every time equals the Ln of e to the negative point one two D So far so good Ryan, what can I do with this exponent? Since it's in no, no, it's inside a law. What can I do with this exponent shruggin? Nathan what can I do with this exponent? This is the whole point of this folks. We have to know this. Oh, I'm a little worried now I Can get it down the whole point of this is to do that because now I can get it down to ground level Yes, yes. Yes. Yes. Yes nod your head. Okay, excellent. I get this Ln of point two five Equals negative point one two D Ln of E That is a case so far Cassandra Remember Ln was actually our way of writing log base. What? When I use Ln, that's the log base. What? You're right. Say it louder Whoever said it say it louder say it means actually say it physically louder not just repeated the same volume say it louder You're right. No, no, sorry. I thought you said the other one. I'm my bad. That's base 10 What was Ln base what? II II and why is that nice? I'm gonna read this but instead of saying Ln of E I'm gonna read that as log base E of E What is the log base E of E? Right Which is why we actually chose to go with Ln instead log because our base was E That was gonna have a log cancel later on. In fact, I have this Ln of point two five equals negative point one two D, how would I get the D by itself now? Well now we're math eight Or math nine. How would I get the D by itself Steph? I think you're right Yeah, D is going to be Whatever the Ln of point two five is All divided by negative point one two D and Not point one two D. Mr. Duke. How about divided by negative point one two.  Oh calculator Ln point two five divided by negative point one two, you know what? eleven point to the nearest hundred eleven point five five meters That's when the light is one quarter as strong as it was From the original location Okay base E How will you know you're supposed to use base E? They'll either use as a trigger phrase continuous growth or you'll see a base equation given to you in the question So part of your homework today If you can turn please To page 208 page 208 you can add number six Now number six is a little bit tricky and deliberately not explaining it because the first thing they're asking you to find is K They're asking you to find K That must mean they're gonna give you X and I zero and I What's X measured in what's right next to the letter X here? What are the units? What's next to this number? I'm pretty sure that's X apparently When X is nine you they'll also tell you I and I zero to find K Then once you found K you could use it for part B. You can't figure that out. I'll talk about it tomorrow or a bit later on in class Really though the kind of question I'm gonna give you is much more similar to number seven How can you glance at number seven and tell that it's a continuous growth base E question? Remember yesterday we opened to a blank page or on a scrap piece of paper last class. We did some examples Same thing except this time. It's going to be changing the base You can either do this right near the same page where we did some more exponential growth equation examples Or on a set of piece of paper What we're gonna look at here. It's ill is how can you change the base if they give you an equation with a certain base Can you rewrite it as a different base and yes you can and There is going to be I think one of these on your test somewhere. Well, I'll ask you to change the base So the heading is changing the base and the first question I gave you is a Population is increasing at a rate of 12% per year a population is increasing at a rate of 12% per year Write an equation describing this so write that far Don't bother putting B and yet because I don't know how much room we're gonna need hey, I don't want to do that Hey, it did it again That's silly. Okay Here do this what you do. What would an equation look like? Well, let's write down our template a Equals a zero c to the t over p the fact that it's 12 percent per year That tells us the growth period. What is the growth period here? It's implied One and we're increasing at 12% I Think the generic equation is going to look like this your final population is going to be your initial population To the power of t over 1 what would your rate your base be right here if we're increasing by 12% Yeah, that's an equation a generic equation. Hello, okay Try that again Down That's an equation a generic equation that describes That particular growth I lost the two there somehow the problem is Doing math with a base of 1.12 is yucky if you're trying to do math in your head I'd like to rewrite this equation as base two I'd like to rewrite that but instead of 1.12 to the t I'd like to to some power. I don't want to change my initial population. I Don't want to change my final population. I want to replace 1.12 to the t with two to the k T Say what hang on bear with me. In fact, I want to replace That 1.12 I want to replace that with a two Now the problem here is this Does 1.12 equal to? No, but you know what? 1.12 equals 2 To some power and traditionally we use a letter k to symbolize that power What number would go there? Oh, I can solve it Where it's gonna be a decimal. I'm sure where is this number sitting an exponent How will I solve for this log both sides? I absolutely agree. So I'm gonna go like this The log of 1.12 Equals the log of two to the k Nathaniel, what can I do with this k? Darn right. That's the whole point of this and in fact I'll get The log of 1.12 equals k log Tyson how would I get the k by itself? I think k is Gonna be the log of 1.12 over the log of 2 and Give it to me to like three. Let's even say four decimal places You get point one six three five What does that mean? What are three dots mean? therefore, I Can replace that one point one two with a two to the point one six three five Which means I can replace that one point one two To the t which is what I had in my original equation with the Two point two point mr. Dude two to the point one six three five To the t Katie is that okay? I'm saying one point one two is the same as two to the power of point one six three five How do I know because I set up the equation to figure that out? And so I can replace that one point one two with a two to the point one six three five and the t and the t Is that okay Katie? Don't write this next bit down Therefore don't write this next bit down My original equation is The same as don't write this down yet because I'm writing it differently. Is this a power to a power? Yeah, what do I do when I have a power to a power? What did we do with the exponents? Multiply them you know what this is how we're gonna write this We're gonna tack the t on there instead of having an extra exponent. I Can rewrite now? This is what you want to write down therefore my original equation Is this base to my original equation? Which was a growth rate of 12% Can be rewritten as a base of two but I have to have that decimal in my exponent because I have to replace the one point one two With two to some power Number two which for some reason has become a number one because I turned the automatic numbering on and I should have not bothered Trying to make a list that's okay Number two Suppose we have a equals a zero one point zero seven to the t By the way, what percent is this population increasing by? Can you see it seven percent? Rewrite this it says as a doubling equation. That means they we want us to rewrite this as base two What's my original base here? What's my original base in this equation? What's my original base in this equation? 1.07 what do I want it to become? So what we're really saying is this I want to replace the 1.07 with a two But that's a nonsense statement right there 1.07 is not equal to two However 1.07 is equal to two to some power it is How can I figure out what exponent I would put there and by the way almost always again if you're changing the base You'll end up with a yucky decimal exponent very rarely will these work out evenly once in a while not very often What am I gonna do now Carson? I'm gonna take a log of both sides Ryan my friend. What can I do with this K? Darn right. Thank you for being back with me. In fact, I'll get this K equals the law mr. Duke you're doing too much work at once Okay, this is frustrating me now often never use automatic numbering. This is what happens when I type in here I'll get the log of 1.07 Equals K log 2. I think K is gonna be the log of 1.07 divided by the log of 2 give me K to four decimal places. What'd you get Andrew? 0.0976 Is that rounded off properly? Okay, so If I want to write this equation as a doubling equation, it's gonna be final amount equals initial amount two to the point 0.0976 That's the same equation if you were to graph that You'd get the same equation as with a base of 1.07 Maybe because we've rounded off a tiny bit after a while it might not quite overlap But certainly for the first million or so it would overlap quite nicely Hey Let's try rewriting this as a tripling equation. That means we want to replace the 1.07 with Not a base of 2 but a base of 3 to the K try that one on your own See if you can figure out what K has to be and what your new equation would look like I'll freeze the screen and I'll do it up here. Yeah We can rewrite any base as any other base the most common ones 2 because 2 is a nice number to do arithmetic with 10 because 10 is a nice number to do arithmetic with oh and If you've been taking a sample of a population and You've been recording the data every month, but you know your population is big enough that it grows continuously base II base II What we're saying here is 1.07 equals e to the K Rewrite this as base e using a zero Sorry a equals a zero e to the kt. I did tell you that whenever I ask you a base e question I will give you this equation. That's the one. We're not asking you to memorize But you know what it's the same as the original equation that we've been looking at except we just write it a bit differently with base e With decimals for the period instead of fractions. We're really saying replace the 1.07 with that Oh now where is the case sitting? It's an exponent. I'm not gonna take the log of both sides Steph Ln of both sides and the K will move to the front. Oh And why would why did we take the Ln of both sides because what is the Ln of e? What is the log base e of e? That K is just going to be the Ln of 1.07 and I get point oh six seven Seven I guess if I round up properly point oh six seven seven Which means my actual equation base e if I take that seven percent growth would look like this What if you get a negative here? What if you get a negative here tells you your population's decreasing and you'd have to double-check your original question to make sure Your growth rate was not seven percent increase but less than one Seven what seven percent decrease good. Gosh is it doing it again? Irritating me now Okay, oh it's gonna stay I guess that's just terrible notes. Oh well last one. I Like this question. I like this question. I like this question. I like this question. I like this question Rewrite p equals p zero times point seven eight to the t as base e By finding the growth constant K and writing your answer in the form p equals p zero e to the k t Change the base from point seven eight to e What we're really seeing here saying here is hey take that Point seven eight and make it Eat of something Try this one on your own. I'll do it slowly up here if you get stuck Okay Back to page 208 so page 208 actually page 211 if you want to be really fussy So now I'm going to assign number 15 and Number 15 in part D They're asking you to rewrite it with a base of one half instead of a base of point nine six They want you to rewrite it as a half-life equation Okay, and then it says use the equation in D to determine the master meaning after one hour 16 is a base e question You know how I can tell just like Lansing at it that 16 is a base e question. Hello 17 18 is good 19 is good This is a long assignment. I've given you a bunch of stuff here But I've given you three classes to work on it And I try to give you time to work on it. Okay So there it is exponential growth on Friday. We're going to look at a specific example of exponential growth called compound interest We're also going to finish off the unit on Friday Take home quizzes next week Test a week from Monday is the plan


Good morning. Welcome to CMC Markets on Friday the 14th of January 2022 and this quick look at the week ahead beginning the 17th of January. And once again, we've seen a fairly choppy week for equity markets. US markets have once again been driving, I think, well, they have been driving the moves higher and lower pretty much across the board. Asia markets have also proved to be fairly choppy without really giving any sort of sense of overall direction going forward. And I think the bigger question that investors are wrestling with at the moment is what sort of central bank intervention are we likely to see with respect to tightening of monetary policy over the course of the next 12 months. Certainly the narrative from the Federal Reserve has been raised a little bit or the rhetoric has been raised a little bit over the course of the past few days with a raft of policymakers pretty much nailing on the certainty that we will see a rate rise at the March rate meeting. Now I hear you ask why would the Fed not decide to go in January in a couple of weeks time given the fact that there is a meeting between now and the March meeting and there's a simple answer to that question. The Fed have guided that they are tapering off their asset purchases which are due to end in March and as such any tightening of monetary policy is not likely to happen before then. Now you can argue that the potential the Fed needs to get going and certainly there is a school of thought that suggests that they really can't afford to hold off if as some people are suggesting we could see four rate rises this year starting in March so essentially we get one in March one in June one in September one in December certainly Goldman Sachs has come out and suggested that they are in the full rate hike camp. I think the big question is whether or not the Fed is behind the curve and actually given the data that we've seen this week whether or not this inflation research that we've seen maybe on the cusp of topping out certainly looking at the US CPI numbers which came in at 7% for December this week and the China CPI numbers which actually fell back in December as did the PPI numbers there is a sense that perhaps we are starting to approach already getting near to the high watermark when it comes to inflationary pressure certainly PPI the PPI numbers do appear to suggest that we are starting to see a slowing of the inflationary narrative and could in coming months see inflation levels that start to level off and potentially tick a little bit lower. Now that's not to say that they're going to come crashing off from the levels that we're currently seeing at the moment but what we could see is a plateau whereby US inflation hits 7% and then starts to drift back down to 6%, 5% over the course of the next few months as these effects start to level off. In that context obviously we'll be looking at this week at the latest UK CPI numbers which are due out on the 19th of January that's one of the key items on my agenda looking forward as is UK retail sales for December they're out on the 21st of January as well as the latest unemployment numbers and wage growth numbers on the 18th of January so that's the key UK data we've also got China's fourth quarter GDP numbers which are due out on Monday and they're likely to come in at the lower end of expectations cast your mind back 12 months and everyone was talking about the potential for the Chinese economy to see annual GDP growth of 6%. I actually thought that was slightly pessimistic at the time turns out I was wrong on that count and something that I'm perfectly happy to hold my hands up to when the facts change I change my mind but I certainly don't change my mind on the basis of one data point but you still need to be flexible enough in your own views to say well okay the data is not actually panning out the way that I suspected it might and therefore you have to rethink your rationale or your logic for a particular trade idea and that's one of the key things about looking at markets and that's one thing the last 30 years have taught me don't let pride get in the way of changing your mind because ultimately changing your mind can save you an awful lot of money in the longer term you know it's not a weakness to admit you're wrong it's a strength I've learned more from my mistakes than I have from my successes and I think you have to try and keep that level ahead when you're looking at financial markets you know and that's why I think markets are very very difficult at the moment if you look at say for example the the NASDAQ 100 that's seen an awful lot of volatility over the course of the past few days and the bias for that is for the market to roll over certainly if you look at US 10-year yields they tried to go through 1.8 percent last week and they failed that prompted a little bit of a rebound in the NASDAQ and then now around about 1.73 percent have come off a little bit and there is an argument to suggest that perhaps on the 10-year maybe we starting we maybe we are starting to see some evidence of a topping out of the longer term section of the US yield curve I mean let's look at these candles here the weekly chart at the moment is not really telling me anything instructive we've seen some very strong moves over the course of the past three weeks we've seen a little bit of a consolidation here back to around about 169 1.69 and for the moment the charts not really telling me anything significant in terms of where we can go to next we're seeing a little bit of a sideways consolidation and certainly the highs are getting lower which does suggest a little bit of failing momentum when it comes to the 10-year so that could be positive for the NASDAQ but and there's always a caveat you look at the US 2-year yield that is showing no signs at all of actually wanting to start to roll over and I think that's the one that we really start to want to continue to pay attention to the US 2-year yield is now approaching 1 percent so buying UK government by buying UK buying US treasuries 2-year US treasuries actually gives you a higher return than it does investing in the trailing dividend yield for the NASDAQ but that's by the buy anyway on a technical basis we are approaching a very key support level on the NASDAQ 100 certainly in terms of what we're seeing here the markers are still very undecided you've got a very long lower candle there lower wick on that candle there but those gains soon gave way to a big sell-off here so the 50-day moving average on the NASDAQ 100 is going to be the key resistance level and at the moment that is you know while that acts as resistance the risk is very much towards the downside of the NASDAQ and if we break below these lows here this trend line here from the lows here we could well get to see a significant test of the 200-day moving average it's a similar sort of picture when we also look at the S&P 500 and again you know we are approaching a very key support level so looking at these two indexes in the round it's interesting how much they closely correlate certainly again we've got the very long lower shadows on the candle six charts you know and that's very very important in the context of the wider scheme of things so we need to keep particularly close attention to that on any thrusts towards the downside and potentially get a rollover in the S&P 500 so those those those the two US markets US markets are acting as a significant drag on risk appetite however that's not the whole story because if we look at the the DAX there's pretty much trading sideways there's no danger of us really going anywhere on the DAX at the moment and that still remains very much range bound but albeit with a bias towards the upside so nothing really to add there FTSE 100 is the outperformer so far this year we've broken higher and continue to track higher so on the basis of this chart here I think there's potential quite a bit of potential for further upside for the FTSE 100 back towards the January peaks that we saw just before the pandemic around about 7,700 7,690 certainly a lot more potential for the FTSE 100 to retest the 2020 highs and certainly that is my bias in terms of the FTSE 100 as long as we're hold above 7,400 which was a breakout level at the end of last year and for me the the bias remains for the FTSE 100 to continue to slowly edge its way higher going forward we've also seen some significant breakouts on the part of euro-dollar the dollar has weakened despite the prospect that we could see more than three rate hikes this year why is that I mean that does seem rather counter-intuitive that actually we could get four Fed rate hikes and and yet the dollar weakens and I think an awful lot of that is positioning based I think if the Fed hikes rates four times this year then it's much more likely that other central banks will follow suit whereas say for example if the Fed only hikes two or three times this year it's probably more likely that the other central banks will probably do nothing so what you're getting is potentially a much broader tightening the monetary policy which may not actually favor the dollar anywhere near as much now that may seem a little bit counter-intuitive but you have to basically trade and want the charts are telling you we've broken through 113.85 on euro-dollar and broken through 114 so you could argue this sort of breakout here suggests that we are going to see another move higher in euro-dollar further dollar weakness towards this series of lows previous lows through here which was around about 115.20 and in my chart forum posts on the site which are here which can be here I've basically suggested that we could see a move to 115.20 on euro-dollar over the course of the next few sessions while we hold above the 114.113.80 area which I've identified as the breakout point and the previous resistance level. Similar sort of thing with respect to cable though we are starting to run into a little bit of resistance at the 200-day moving average but nonetheless this on the basis of dollar weakness if we can break above the 200-day moving average then we can certainly retest these peaks here around about 138.30 and head back towards the 140 level in the short to medium term certainly the dollar does appear to be losing a lip or bit of its luster and if we look at the CMC dollar index the fact that we broken this uptrend line from here would appear to suggest that further weakness is on the way therefore if you extrapolate that out that would suggest that we're going to see further euro strength further sterling strength as well which really then begs the question what happens to euro sterling well again that's a bit like watching paint dry but ultimately I still think that if we can get below 83.30 then the bias remains for a retest of 80 to 80 initially and also the these these lows back here in February 2020 at the moment 83.30 is proving a little bit of a tough enough to crack but while we're below 83.80 the series of highs through here and I think the bias remains for a slow track lower going forward so look at also looking at the looking at the wider numbers for next week I think it I think it's unlikely that any of the numbers that we see coming out on from the on the economic data front will point to anything significantly different in terms of currency moves currency direction overall so UK CPI we're expecting to see that to edge slightly higher from 5.2% to 5.3% and that will be the highest levels since above the 2008 highs levels last seen in March 1992 5.3% in March 1992 at 7.1% so I don't think it'll go that high certainly the Bank of England thinks it could go to 6% but certainly overall markets are now pricing in the possibility that we might see a move on rates from the Bank of England in early February we'll have to wait and see certainly the Fed is already indicating that it's going to move in March the bigger question is whether the Bank of England will for preempt that and go in February or while they'll wait till the Fed moves and that goes subsequently in at the following at the meeting after that unemployment is expected to remain steady at 4.2% normally seeing much change in that we could see it drop a little bit to 4.1% but overall the number of vacancies is at a record high 1.22 million so you would expect the unemployment rate to continue to fall as we head into 2022 wages on the other hand are still below the level of inflation so the negative in real terms they fell back to 4.3% from 6% in October certainly we'd want to be seeing evidence of that number holding well above 4 maybe edging back up to 4.5 or back towards 5% as I say you know with respect to the wages there is upward pressure on wages and ideally you'd want to see much higher wages numbers but I think the likelihood is that we could actually see those fall further further exacerbating the cost of living a squeeze retail sales again the December plan B restrictions could well impact the retail sales numbers certainly the recent retail updates from various retailer Sainsbury's Tesco's Darnell points to fairly decent retail sales activity in December so even though we've had a little bit of a slowdown in hospitality and leisure in December certainly in terms of online retail and in general that has actually been fairly resilient but nonetheless you're likely to see that retail sales numbers probably are going to fall back a little bit in December and even though supermarket food sales will have picked up I don't think that's going to be enough to see retail sales stay in positive territory certainly the 1.1% rise we saw in October 2% rise we saw in November we are going to see a little bit of a slide back in December simply on the basis of the fact that simply on the basis of the fact that most people will have already done their Christmas shopping already because of concerns about supply chain restrictions so you could see a little bit of a decline sorry that was 1.1% in November and 2% in October so we're probably going to see a decline or we're predicted to see a decline of 0.6% for December retail sales okay so in terms of inflation we've also got the latest CPI numbers from the European Union that's likely to remain in line with the flash number that we saw earlier this month 5% but certainly the warnings from the Bundesbank are getting louder that the ECB needs to get its act together or when it comes to acting on inflation and President Lagarde's consistent remarks that rates aren't going anywhere are cutting increasingly little ice with some of the northern European economies where you've got PPI levels in and around and above 20% certainly a lot of that is going to start trickling down into headline CPI numbers it already is in Germany which is its highest levels of CPI since reunification well over 5% and at a time when the Bundesbank discount rate was 8.75% not minus 0.5 which is what the ECB rate is right now so certainly I think the noises are getting louder about the risks of more persistent levels of inflation so we've got EU CPI out on the 20th of January so moving on to companies and we've got Netflix and Goldman Sachs in the US but we've also got Primark owner associated breached foods we've got JD Weatherspoon who are likely to have been clobbered a little bit in December earlier this week we had Michelin Butler's who own all bar one report that sales in December were down 10.2% so I would expect to see similar numbers from JD Weatherspoons certainly I think in October they posted a record loss in October of 154.7 million pounds the most notable statistic from them was a 40% drop in revenues that you know to 772.6 million pounds and if you compare that to what it was in 2019 where that when it was 1.8 billion you know that's quite a significant loss so the announcement of December restrictions did prompt Weatherspoons to issue a trading update at the time to the effect that this week's numbers could see the business slip to a first half loss so you could argue that the bad news there is already in the price Deliveroo what a nightmare Deliveroo Floparoo whatever you want to call it record lows for the share price here the IPO was 390p we are now at 172p and despite a brief recovery in August which saw a delivery hero by a 5% stake the shares have pretty much gone one way which sort of begs the question is the why Deliveroo Delivery Hero thought it was a good idea to to buy into Deliveroo having said that despite the declines that we've been seeing in the share price the company's been raising guidance consistently in Q3 Deliveroo raises guidance for the for raiders guidance for GDP for this number to between 60 and 70% gross profit margins unchanged at 7.5 to 7.75% plan B restrictions could have actually boosted Deliveroo's GTV transaction volumes and they've also signed deals with Amazon and Morrison's so big question is how much further can can the share price fall well looking at that trend probably quite a bit lower but at some point you're probably going to see some interest start to trickle in and then we'll move on to Primark again here you could have seen a drop-off in you could have seen a drop-off in footfall as a consequence of the December plan B restrictions as more people stayed at home to avoid getting sick at a Christmas nonetheless seen a fairly decent rebound there if we look at four-year revenues for last year this is this is going to be the first quarter update for 2022 four-year revenues came in at 13.9 billion for last year which was only slightly lower than the previous year so certainly ABF have done very very well in managing to recoup all of that lost revenue as a result of the lockdowns and also there are other businesses have been doing fairly well as well so there's certainly scope for them to continue to move higher netflix this is getting caught up in the tech sell-off so that could be interesting there's low expectations around the latest numbers from netflix and i think this needs to be put into context revenues have been growing they improved in q3 coming in at 7.4 billion are unexpected to come in at 7.7 billion in q4 they're investing an awful lot in new content high spending on content will probably see margins decline to six and a half percent during this quarter from 23 and a half percent but four-year operating margins are still expected to come in at 20 percent or slightly better profits expected to come in quite a bit lower again as a result of this investment in new content to 80 cents a share and also they're a little bit more cautious about subscriber numbers subscriber number growth certainly that is going to be a concern but certainly in terms of the the the new content that's come out this quarter we've seen new series of the witcher cobra kite tiger king lost in space still waiting for the new series of stranger things so i think even when measured against subscriber growth numbers i think the real focus here needs to be less on subscriber growth numbers and more on revenue growth and at the moment there doesn't appear to be showing any signs of a slowdown there so big support in and around this trend line here which currently comes in just below five hundred dollars a share so keeping an eye on that that that one there goldman sacks bank earnings starting this week with jp morgan and city group as i'm talking now i don't know what those numbers are but certainly i think the recent report this week that goldman sacks commodities trading revenue for the year came in well above 2.2 billion dollars at a record a record does bode well for the the the 18th of 18th of january q4 numbers um q4 q4 profits are expected to come in lower than q3 again most estimates for goldman sacks usually have tended to miss the mark by quite some way they've usually tended to fall um the profits have usually tended to come in well above expectations so i don't expect this to be any different um nonetheless anything above 11.60 a share is likely to be fairly well greeted but again sideways trading in terms of goldman sacks share price over the course of the past few weeks so keep an eye on 3.70 a share that could well see um a bit of a test if the numbers disappoint so keep keep an eye keep an eye on that key support level there 370 dollars a share for goldman sacks okay so that's pretty much it for this week ladies and gentlemen um once again thank you very much for listening hope you all have a great week a great weekend and a great trading week and i'll speak to you all same time same place next week thank you very much listening


Welcome back to the Shore Theatre for the latest exciting instalment in the Irish Writers weekend this Sunday afternoon. I will look after events programmes at the library, the festival is being presented in association with the International Festival for Literature in Galway, the Sporting Cultural Island, the Irish Embassy in London and the Doraar Collection hotels. So, y dyna'r seisio'n chifiddeli ar ddegwydau ar gweithio'r llai, gwymae, mae'r llai a'r llai yn gwneud y defnyddio i'r defnyddio'r llai o'r amser i gael James Joyce. Gweithio'r llai, gan ymweld i'r llai o'r eu lleol, mae'r llai'r lleol yn gwybod i'r llai o'r llan fyddion. A erbyn. Felly, mae'n ddiddorol, mae'r llai yn gweithio'r panol. Mae'n gweithio'r panol a'r llai yn hynod i miol Llefyrtyn, Allan hyn yw'r cyflym ac ysteadfyniad, yr ëIrsh Times, ëFanatial Timesí, ëGardiní a ndryf, a'r hyn yw'r ysgoliamhiedd yma cyflogwyddo. A'r anodd yma yn ymwiel yn ymdwiel y mae'r oedd yn gwaith ar y myrdd y gwaith o'r hyn o bau. Yn gyflwyno'r bought. Yn ddiddorol am y cyfeysi nhw,yddech chi'n bwyl ffwllt ac yn ymddych chi'n gwelwch yrthwynt yn gyfr doświadwyd, yma, y nesaf rhywun oedd yma. I'm delighted to be here today with our distinguished guests and Enright needs no introduction, having been honoured with a lifetime achievement award this week at the Irish Book Awards. She's the author of seven novels, as well as a Sunday Times bestselling memoir about parenting called Making Babies, as well as numerous short stories and of course all of her excellent pieces that you will have seen. She was the inaugural laureate for Irish fiction in 2015 and on top of her own amazing work which includes the Booker winning the Gathering, she is a big promoter of other Irish writers for which we're grateful. Nula O'Connor also won an Irish Book Award this week for the best short story of the year for this small giddy life. She is the author of Nora, which is an excellent historical fictionalized biography of Nora Barnacle, which I highly recommend you buy if you haven't, you'll be able to buy that after the session. She's published four other novels as well as collections of short fiction and poetry and was also the curator of Love Says Bloom at the Mali earlier this year. Paula Doon, who's being beamed in from the States, is also a national treasure. He teaches at Princeton and is the author of 14 full length collections of poetry, most recently Howdy Skelp in 2021, Frolick and Detour in 2019, and 1000 Things Worth Knowing, some of which we hope he'll share with us today. His poetry has been awarded the TS Eliot Prize, the Pulitzer Prize, and the TLS called him the most significant English language poet born since the Second World War. Perhaps he prefers the Irish Post's comparison to The Beatles, having edited Paul McCartney's books of lyrics. He's also along with his wife, Jean-Hanthe Corlitz, the author and adapter of The Dead for a Stage, so we'll be hearing more about that. Thank you to all of you for being here with us today. Before we get into the crux of the debate as to whether or not we've had too much choice, especially after this year, I do think it's important that we recognize why it is that we're still talking about this novel 100 years on, and you had written about how you discovered Ulysses at 14 and you compared it to mainlining drugs. I haven't ever mainlined drugs, so I want to make that clear here.  So his brother said there was just too much of Ulysses, and then of course everyone thought there was too much of Finnegan's Wake. So everyone's been shouting too much for over a century now at choice, and maximizing is part of what he does. But yes, no, I bought my copy of Ulysses in Kinsale in the bookshop there in 1977 when I was 14, and I think I did it to attract young men. I thought that carrying a book around while hostileing would make me look interesting and mysterious. I find it repels young men. It has the opposite effect for me. Oh no, the only cosmetic surgery I need is a small frontal lobotomy, and that would bring them in. I realised later in life. About 14 years still hope. But at 14 I still thought this was the way forward, in the way that you'd stand in front of a painting in the gallery feeling that the next, anyway, it didn't really work. I did read, at least, not all the book at 14, but I read, I'd say three or four sections before I brought it back home. I had a big fight with my mother, which probably was incidentally about Ulysses, when she told me to put it away from when I was older to read it when I was older. When did you pop your Ulysses cherry? Well, I suppose it's one of those books that when you're interested in Irish writers, you're kind of always reading, and obviously the sensual joys of Penelope precedes the book, you know, like a big waving banner, and so I had read Penelope over and over and adored it before I read Ulysses from start to finish. And because I was having trouble getting past certain bits of it, I thought the best way to do this is to do it with a group. So I joined up to one of those groups where there's a facilitator, and there were 25 of us, some of whom have read the book in depth before, and we would meet once a week and discuss the book. And it was a brilliant way to do it because so many people in the group already had knowledge, so you weren't just reading the book, you were learning about the book, the culture of the book, the history of its publication. So that was a brilliant way into it for me. That's how I came to it as well. So you didn't read it in school then? No, I studied Irish in college, not English, so I didn't get to it yet. Paul, do you remember your first experience as a young person with Ulysses? Well, I've read it or tried to read it as a student. I did not read it as a teenager. I tried to read it, I think, as the most accurate description when I was at university, which was Queen's University, Belfast. And like many as a one, I think there was one particular phrase that stopped me in my tracks. It was, of course, Jeshel, which of course is an Irish word, a point at which it does fall under the rubric of Gaelic literature, never mind literature in English. Jeshel meaning going in a good direction, going in the direction of the sun, going clockwise, which is the first word of the oxen of the sun chapter. No, it was the sentence, an ineluctable modality of the visible. And that's a sentence with which I think many people stop and indeed funder. And when I taught it once, because I did have the hootspan, to teach it once, I actually encouraged my students when they came on that particular chapter to skip it, to go to the next one and just keep on going. Because I know that's horrendous, that's heretical perhaps, but it is a way, and then come back to it, and then come back to it. Because there is a sense of being overwhelmed by it, just to go back to the rubric of too much. There is a sense of being overwhelmed by it, which I think actually is very easily overcome. And it's nothing compared to Finnegan's Wake, the aforementioned, which I think is actually truly too much. Can I get a show of hands of how many people have read Finnegan's Wake? Oh wow, not bad. Impressive. So we all have to go home now. Yes, that's next year's project. I think it's hard to judge what reading Finnegan's Wake would mean, Julie. I mean, I describe myself as having read it, but what I mean by that is that I took a, I made my way from word to word through it. And that is a very particular experience, and I think to reread the same four words half an hour later would be a different experience. So I'm not sure if there is such a phenomenon actually, such a concept as having read Finnegan's Wake, but that's for another day perhaps. I used to read it before exams. I'd read a page maybe of Finnegan's Wake and feel enormously sort of clever. Wow.  I was going to say mainlining Finnegan's Wake. Yeah, it makes everything go pop on ffizz, you know. Synapses you didn't know you had start to kind of, it's very galvanizing, I think. Interesting. I'll have to try it. And I think, you know, Anne, you've said that Ulysses is clearly part of the epigenetics, or Joyce is part of the epigenetics of Irish writers. And I think it's true even outside of Ireland. Rifka Gaugin writes that she does not call herself a big Joyce fan, but still, every attention paid to the quotidian seems to link back to him as does every highly elusive and densely detailed creation, every lounging in the texture of language, every joke, every game, every difficulty, and every epiphany. Even the video game Minecraft has something Joyceian about it. So, for each of you, how would you say that Joyce has influenced you, kind of broadly speaking, in terms of the possibilities that he... Yeah, I think epigenetic is a good choice of word because it's almost like Joyce provided the environment, you know, that altered your progress. So, for me, it wasn't a head-to-head, mano-a-mano person-to-person encounter. I didn't meet the writer and tussle with the writer or love the writer or be a fan of the writer. It wasn't a dyadic experience. It was being in an environment. I'm not saying it very well, but it was, you know, when people confront Joyce, that doesn't mean anything to me. It's just you read them, you read the pages, you read the words, okay? So, I say that asking a writer what influence Joyce had is like asking a fish what they think about the water. It was just the place where you swam. And also, in the question of influence, there are influences that happen before awareness. I had no sense of myself as a future writer when I started reading in Joyce. And I read, studied portrait when I was 17 and still had no sense of myself that this is something I could take and use and be influenced by. So, it happened too early for me to be properly anything other than a kind of intervention rather than an influence. But yet you describe the process as sort of similar, I think you could call it strenuous dreaming. So, reading Joyce is like writing. You find some of the same. It is. You sink into some very strange state of flow when you're reading Joyce making sense and not making sense at the same time. And it can be very strenuous. And the other thing it reminds me of is deep into an argument when you're really getting close to something and it can be extremely tiring. That same dreamy fatigue sets in when I read particularly the third section, ineluctable modality of the visible, the Proteus section of Ulysses. It's very close to tiring dreaming. That's a great analogy. Nula, you had written a fictionalised biography before of Emily Dickinson. What was it about Nora's story that you felt needed retelling? Oh, well, I mean, there's Maddox's excellent biography and there's Pat Murphy's excellent film which brought us up just to their time in Trieste. But I had read Maddox when I was a teenager and loved it and then I moved to Galway in my mid-twenties. And every year I would go to the Bloomsday celebration at the Nora Barnacle house, which is actually our mother's house.  So I was very aware of her. I had adapted a cat and called her Nora Barnacle. She's this lovely, proud, fearsome cat. And I was writing these biographical fictions about Emily Dickinson, as you say, a woman called Belle Bilton. Other short stories about Elizabeth Bishop and Frida Kahlo and different people. And it's just like the swirl of things happens whereby you end up with a subject to go forward with. So I was studying Italian by night in NUI and, you know, I had adopted the cat and I was just thinking about, I had to write an essay actually about their time in Trieste. Well, about Joyce's friendship with Italo Svevo, the Italian writer. And all the time I was doing the research, all I could think about was what did Nora feel about all of this? How did she feel married to this man who adored her, was a genius, was also a drunk, was irresponsible but loving, was generous but nervy around people. What was it like to be married to him? And I suddenly had my next subject. So I wrote a short story first, which sometimes is the way things happen for me. I write something smaller and then realise I'm not finished with this. I'm going to go forward and was delighted to find I was writing a novel because that's the next two years sorted in a sense once you begin.  There's an element of that too. Because you know you're climbing that mountain. Paul, your poetry has been described as very elusive and has some of those joisting qualities. Would you call him a direct influence or more like Anne, do you think that it was an opening of the spirit? Well, I agree with Anne about trying to describe his influence, being somewhat akin to a fish describing water. However, I suppose we do have to try to be circumspect as fish. What is it about him? The notion of there being too much, of course, has been raised. I think the great thing about him is despite his own impulse to go further and further. As we know, his manuscripts, his typescripts slash manuscripts are all about addition, a cruel, a creation, putting more stuff in. Most writers, or at least I suspect many writers, are about cutting back. Of course, his great follower, I suppose, Samuel Beckett, reacted against him in precisely that way of pairing everything back to the bone. Joyce's impulse is to add, but what's fascinating about that to me is that as he adds, and why he adds, and because he adds, he somehow becomes equal to our being here. And his capacity to render, it render seems a crude word, because one's not conscious of him rendering anything, his capacity to give us the world in a slightly altered way. I mean, it's a cliché, but I think it's a truism, but I think it's true. He gives us a world that's recognizable, but not quite a world that we are seeing as if for the first time. And so he has a marvelous capacity to rinse his own eye and our own. And I think that actually is something that many writers learned from. And in a strange way, one would expect those of us who are primarily interested in writing verses to look more to WB Yeats, say, in the Irish context. But I think on balance, while I do look to Yeats, I find myself looking even more to Joyce because when it comes to Yeats, I have a sense in my innocence or perhaps arrogance of how it's done. I actually have a pretty good sense of how Yeats did it from case to case. I find it much more difficult to figure out how Joyce did it, much more mysterious, much more illusive and much more interesting. Sorry, is it a particular thing that he did? Because he did so many different things, you know? So he could figure out Dubliners, but where you find the problem may be where your problem is. Well, you know, to figure out Dubliners would be, would in itself be a major achievement. I mean, one of the extraordinary things about Dubliners is that it seems for the most part, if we think of it as a single piece, which is not, there's shifts and tone and style in it, but it's somewhat consistent.  And one of the things that I discovered, if I didn't already know it, was just how, despite its apparent immediacy, it's huge complexity and how virtually every word in it resonates in a way actually that's perhaps not so obvious as it might be with Finnegan's Wake or Ulysses, but actually resonates too. So I think what I'm interested in is capacity to be available and to be doing more than one thing at a time. Now, there's no particular desirability in that, but it just happens to be something I'm interested in myself, and so I looked in for that, among other things. Thank you. Ann, you wrote earlier this year about Joyce's influence that it was liberating for women but a burden for men. I was wondering if you could tell us a bit more about that. Yeah, but that's just a kind of social observation over the years when I hear one or other writer say that it's hard to write in the shadow of Joyce, and I began to realise that they were usually men who are saying this. And also in response to questions about influence, as though, which seemed admonitory or slightly authoritarian, how dare you be influenced by somebody as great as, you know, that seemed to posit a kind of inheritance, and Ireland is terrible at doing that.  And I rather thought you could do what you liked with or despite Joyce. And then I realised after the fact that people like Edna O'Brien, Nula, many, Ewa McBride, really took their kind of courage from Joyce's work, not just because he talked about sex, but because of the way he worked language was so kind of profoundly anti-patriarchal, I think, in the early season in particular. And that, by liberating the sentence, by, you know, the libidinal rush of his, of Penelope, for example, the absence of punctuation or whatever, by going under the skin with Bloom and others, that was all facilitatory for women's fiction. For a while I said that Joyce was a woman, you know, he wrote domestic fiction in which nothing much happened, there were relationships and it was full of small details, just like women did. And he was interested in the insides of people's heads, even when it wasn't all that traumatic. So, yes, I mean, he has just been a force for great, you know, his presence has facilitated great work, I think, since then. It's interesting you say that about women's fiction because Virginia Woolf had said that as well, that women would have to kind of explode the narrative structure of the Victorian novel in order to write. Yeah, and it bases questions of what happens when you put a sentence together, what are you limiting, what are you putting together, what are you fixing there on the page? And by the way he unfixed everything and unloosed everything, it is very empowering for both the reader, I think, and subsequent writers. Sure, with much more of a focus on words rather than sentences. Yeah, he rocks a good sentence, but yes, yes, yes. And Nula, I know one of your inspirations was the letters, which you wrote about for the Paris review and quite interestingly, you know, of course we don't have Nora's side of the lewd letters, the filthy letters I think you called them. And his Joyce's side is still under copyright, so you had to use your imagination for what that would have been like. Do you think that there is no Joyce without Nora? Is she amused so much that he wouldn't have been able to write kind of the sex scenes that he did, for example, without her in his life? Yeah, and not so much even the mudes, even though he did pick her brains and her stories and used them in the work famously, but, you know, writers have to be facilitated and Nora was a great facilitator. She looked after his health and his home life in order that he could write. So she did used to drag him home from bistros at night or send other people out to drag him home so that he could write because he was teaching English by day a lot of the time and had the care of the family in that way. But if he didn't, if he drank to much, he didn't have time to write and she needed to make sure that he would have that time. To go back to the influence thing, Ann and I are both from Dublin and Joyce's language is our language. And that language hadn't changed or evolved much by the time it came around to us to write and be writers. But when you read someone like Joyce as a dub and you hear your own language on the page, it just seems very natural and a very normal thing to you. And the stories are very recognizable as well. Like it's astonishing really when you think about Donner's that he wrote these in his late teens, early twenties and how deep they are and how pinpoint accurate they are on the Irish psyche if there is such a thing. All the sorrow and the shame that he puts in those books. But that was because there were things he knew he was Joyce wrote a lot about really about poverty and money and class and all of that comes out in the stories. That's what all of those stories are about. They're about levels and levels. And I think only someone who has known genuine poverty and the shame of the father basically drinking away all of their money and moving them by night with bailiffs at the door. Doing these midnight flits where they had to take every little thing they owned and move as a family and how angry the Joyce children were with their father about this and all of that comes out in the work. So I think it was a very still to us. I was born in 1970, you know, still to us it was a very recognizable Dublin, I suppose. And it feels like you're reading about people that you know. And I think that can be useful like when I would read Brendan Behan as well. I found the same thing as a teenager. You know that here's my language. Here's my people. I know where I am with these people. And that's why, you know, the thing about influence being there, but yet not being there. It's just it's sort of a natural part of your reading. You know, you're just absorbing it in and realizing by that, I'm allowed right this stuff. I'm allowed right about anything, the body, the mind, whatever, you know, ordinary life. And do you think for the young writers kind of just coming coming up now, do you think it's still recognizable Dublin or have we moved too far away from the. No, I mean. Yeah, no, but the language is it they're like it's like an artifact in the book. It's like a found object.  I just getting into the sea at the 40 foot. And, you know, that's what Irish men say. They say it in the bar. They say it in traffic. Move up there in the bed. And I never noticed it until I was reading it. I thought, oh, yeah, God, that's exactly it. You just reclaimed these these sentences. Also that kind of mock heroic. The kind of feckier way of talking is sort of posturing that that the men particularly in Ulysses to that's still very current and accurate to a certain style, certain social style that we still. And he drew from his father was from Cork. He drew from him a lot. And he drew from Nora, who was from Galway. So he says this lovely amalgam of Irish phrases going through the thing that sound very natural to an Irish ear. It's funny when you read it with a group and some of the people are not Irish. They don't always get, you know, the phrases like that, like move up in the bed and stuff words to Irish people. They sound very natural and that's that's another beauty of reading Ulysses and Joyce in general that you sort of have an extra in as an Irish person. Because it's the language of your people in a sense. Sure. And Paul, yesterday we were talking about there was a panel on kind of contemporary Ireland and how much more diverse it is.  Sitting as you are from the States having watched the, you know, terribly fast decline of same progressiveness. How do you kind of feel about, you know, you've been abroad from since 1987? What's your relationship to Dublin and the language of Dublin? Well, sorry, there's several things happening there. Let me see. Sorry. Okay, let's take Dublin. You know, and one of the things about Joyce's Dublin and the contemporary Dublin is that actually, in many ways, not much has changed, certainly around the city centre and that one can still steer through the city using Ulysses as a bidicur, as a guide. And, you know, and there are moments, I mean, the first thing that comes to mind is looking up on from Nassau Street, is it, and seeing Wins Hotel. It's not Nassau Street. What is it? Fins Hotel on Nassau Street. Fins Hotel on Nassau Street. I always hesitate about Nassau, because I live at work in Princeton and we have our own Nassau named after his fellow Prince William. So actually, so, you know, and he was so, as you know, he was such a stickler for detail, for accuracy, writing to, was it one of his aunts? And Josephine. And Josephine about, you know, getting the details right as to whether or not an able-bodied man, quote unquote, would be able to leap over the railings and down into the area at Seven Eccles Strait or whatever it was.  It's for that reason, among others, and, you know, the fidelity to the fabric of the streets, that the specificity of that, that he continues to give us a Dublin that's recognisable, in addition to which, of course, the continuing recognition of the characters. Who are there, and, you know, we do recognise ourselves in those characters. These are the changes in Ireland. Those have been huge, needless to say. The moment that I left in 1987 was, I think it would be fair to say, a somewhat benighted place. We were just coming out of, you know, the Carey Babies case, for example. The church still had, pardon my French, a stranglehold on the place. And that has changed so dramatically. And Ireland is now one of the most progressive countries in the world, and one of the most far-seeing countries in the world, and it's absolutely thrilling to see what has happened there. And so, and I think Joyce would be thrilled to see what has happened there in terms of diversity in every respect. I mean, I think that's what one of the things he was trying to do in Ulysses was to offer an Ireland that was a little unlikely actually in its diversity. In choosing the main character, Leopold Bloom, as his Irishman, and unlikely Irishman in some ways. But in any case, so, but I can see you're asking me to comment on the state of America. That was, I think, the third component of the question. That was Subpoint 18. OK. Now, I suppose what I meant was, because Joyce was writing about Dublin from a place of exile as well, and yet, you know, got it so right. And you've been gone for such an important chunk of Irish history. And I mean, I'm myself stunned. Can I make a small suggestion that Joyce wrote before Ireland closed down to the extent it did. He wrote it at a time of hopefulness and of, you know, when mixtures and varieties were still possible before it turned into a kind of Catholic state. OK. So, so. Well, yes, and yes, and no, sis Paul. Yeah.  So he was, he had that sort of thought. And I would, I think that Joyce would be thrilled, as so many of us are, to see the Catholic Church on the run as it should properly be. In fact, they should be drummed out of the country. On the slow trot. At a fast pace. At a fast pace. At any case. Terrific. Thank you. That was a conversation stopper of my opponent. So to play devil's advocate, I think everybody on the stage here would agree that you cannot have too much Joyce, however, since it's our topic today and as we're kind of struggling towards the end of the centenary year. Martin Doyle, the Irish Times said to me, as much as he appreciates the influence, continuing influence of Joyce, he would forgo the opportunity to cover yet another Bloomsday in order to highlight a neglected writer such as Maeve Brennan. And you've written a lot about kind of neglected writers, including Maeve and your laureate writings. Do you think that that holds water by talking about Joyce? Is there some way? Well, there's a difference between the book and what we do with the book, you know? So I suffered Bloomsdays when I was younger and thought it was all a great nonsense. And I felt like a real slightly horrible mouse in Disneyland looking at the parade, Mickey Mouse being paraded down. I was like, I'm a writer. What you're doing here isn't, you know, is something much more plastic or whatever. But, I mean, as I grow older and I visit more places and I realise we celebrate something, my youthful contempt was really badly misplaced to look at everybody in their hats and their long dresses and their boaters and all the rest of it and think that they hadn't read the book, which is in fact not the case. I mean, everybody is very famously not able to finish, not finishing Ulysses is a great subject of conversation, but actually so many people really have finished Ulysses and many here have finished Finnegan's Wake.  It's a uniquely sort of great bit of our streetscape now. So I go and eat kidneys with the best of them. And I think it raises all boats, doesn't it? I mean, I think the reveling in Joyce actually, I like to think that helps everyone, including those of us who are still knocking around and that, you know, that something of that engagement with Joyce might one day, you know, carry over to a little engagement at least. With other writers, and I'm pretty sure it does. And so, I mean, a country in which there is such regard for at least that writer is a country with which I'm proud to be associated, I have to say. But also sometimes when I'm teaching younger people now in UCD, and there is a kind of impulse to close texts down. Okay. And I have to remind them that they are studying at the university that produced James Joyce, and that is not just a kind of asking them to up their game. It's also saying everything is allowed, and this space must be kept free and open, and to close it down in some way would be to do your own talent at a service, you know. I think as well that there is a greater conversation now about how books are made and how Ulysses was made with the aid of four very strong women. Well, five, Beech, Weaver, Anderson Heap and Nora. And that without those five women, Ulysses wouldn't exist, because they were the people who supported him, paid for his lifestyle and ultimately published his book at great risk. You know, a special edition weighing three and a half pounds, seven hundred and sixty pages, an absolutely bonkers project for Sylvia Beech to take on. But she liked Joyce so much as a person. She did take it on. Why did they blade? He's like him so much. I don't know. He was very sort of introverted and clammy handshake and sort of quiet, and maybe they just wanted to mother him. He definitely wanted Nora to mother him. He said it. He said I want to climb into your womb, you know. That's how much he needed and wanted her care. He was quite exploited of, wasn't he really as well? Oh, he was. He was an awful user, like. He had a certain type of personality, but I think we concentrate a lot on Joyce's, the negative aspects of Joyce, and I love to celebrate the good aspects of him too, you know, and also these five women who, without whom it was never going to exist. Thanks. And so you teach Ulysses still? No, that's my creative writing students. So I would dream of teaching Ulysses. Because we were talking in the green room about whether or not one can look at it with a contemporary gaze, and you were saying that you think it stands up to, you know, for example.  I have been reading it every five or 10 years. I had a gap there of maybe 20 years. I came back to it after 20 years to read it again in preparation for the centenary. And it just gives and gives. Ulysses just is an absolutely endlessly generous book. It gives you your city back fresh and new each time. It gives you the map again and again. And it is the kind of book that I read as a measure of my own growth, you know. So it's a kind of more relationship than a book for me at this stage. And what would you say has evolved in terms of your own reading of it? Was it more sympathetic? Actually, when I read it as a student, I didn't use guide books and all the rest of it, so I read it kind of properly this time. You know, looking it up and doing it properly. I didn't think Ulysses wanted me to read it properly before. But I thought. And I was very interested in the figures of the women and in the elements of fantasy in the Penelope section and elements of projection in the Karate McDowell section. But I was also, as Nula points out, this time around, I was really interested in the money. Because when you read as a young person, you don't think money matters, but later you see all the debts and the small debt, you know, and the figure of the father. The starving girls and everything and the money and the shame of that poverty is really striking. Paul, have you read it recently? Have you gone back to it? Do you go back to it regularly? Yes, I did actually. I read it a couple of years ago. I do go back to it regularly. I think we don't have to choose, of course, but I think it's probably my single favourite book. I mean, this has been touched on already, but all human life is there. Was it the news of the world that they used to say that about? One of those English newspapers, remember? Yes. Was it the news of the world? All human life is there. The audience says yes. It's a while ago. I don't even know if the news of the world exists anymore, but... Sorry, my hamster. So we've been celebrating the book for the centenary, but you guys write short stories, and of course you wrote the introduction to the anthology of Irish short stories. Paul, you have described the debt as, I think, the greatest short story ever written, and also everything is there. So in terms of a cruel, although it's a long short story, it's kind of novella-sized, it's still much shorter, of course, than Ulysses. What do you think do we still see in terms of his... What did he offer the short story? It's really hard for me to answer that, because when I, as Mule said, reading those stories, I read Eveline when I was in my teens, and to me it was... I thought it was a piece of contemporary fiction. I just hadn't... I just didn't put it back in the day. It was so like the lives of my aunts in Redbrick, Fibsborough, and now... I can't read the dead without crying. It's one of the only things that makes me cry every time, so I read the dead in order to have a little week. So that is beyond criticism, isn't it? That's a completely useless thing to say to an audience. It's just no good at all. Or I watch the film, the John Huston film of the dead of my mother, and those are all the actors, and she says they're all dead now. We watch, yes, and they know I'm nearly all dead. It's just beautiful, beautiful work. It's very modern, as you say. I can't even say. It's just too close to my heart, actually, clearly. How about you, Paul, having adapted it? First of all, I remember when I read Dubliners first, which again would have been probably at university, I think. I couldn't quite understand, because I really didn't have a sense of the history of the short story in English. And I couldn't quite understand why these stories seemed so groundbreaking, so revolutionary, so unlike anything else. Of course, he is drawing on other sources, but it's, and one has a sense that he might be influenced by Ipsen, Boposon, whoever. And it's still hard to figure out what is so revolutionary about them in their ordinariness, their seeming lack of concern for regard for plot, for example, though there's plenty going on. Stories in which, in many ways, not all that much happens. So there is something quite mysterious about them even now to me. I don't know if I can really answer that question that I had 50 years ago, which is kind of pathetic. Or magical. He was writing the dead in 1906, 1907 when they were living in Rome. He was working in a bank. I put a scene into my novel where he and Nora are quite hungry because they just had pasta for dinner that Christmas day. So the dead has one of the most beautiful food scenes in all of Irish literature, all of literature, never mind Irish literature. And so I have them hungry and deciding what the ants would have had on the table, the two sisters, the Morkans. And so they're thinking of all this lovely food. And it was such a joy to write because it is one of my favourite stories too. And just to draw on what I know of the story and make a sort of a believable scene about it. Fascinating. He wanted to write about Irish hospitality. He realised the book didn't contain a story about hospitality. And so this was it. Wow. So just before I take it to audience questions, in that introduction to the anthology of short stories, you mentioned the oral tradition. And you've also said that you don't have to read the whole thing, but if you want to enjoy it in bits that you recommend listening. Ah, yeah. And I still say that at every Joyce event, which this will be the last, I think. Because there's too much Joyce. But there is a click away is the 1982 RTE players recording. And if you get jammed up in Joyce, which you can, sometimes your brain seizes up and judders to a halt and you close the book, if you want a paced companion, then the audio is a wonderful way to go. And it's the 1982 RTE players. So listen as you read. And it actually takes, rinses out some of the thrill of not knowing what's happening because it grounds it that little bit more. He said, oh, OK. That's just going on the chamber pot. OK. And yes, it's not as alarming as we thought, you know, or whatever. It's not as, yeah. So so if you're interested in finding out what the actions are behind behind the work, then that's a very nice, pacy way of doing it. Beautiful. I listen to it for comfort. It's like a comfort listen. Wow. Because the actors love it. It means the theatricality. I mean, they loved reading it. And again, none of these actors had PhDs. It really shows you how in the grain of ordinary life the book is that an actor can seize on that kind of and make great play with it and be revelatory in their reading of it. So we think of it as somehow inaccessible because there's so much of it. But actually, if you take it gently as it goes, it does. It does what it's not. It's not formidable at all. And Paul, did you find the same with your actors? I did actually. And just to go back to that RTE production, which is extraordinary. You know, we're used to thinking that Finnegan's work might best, might most usefully be thought of as an oral or oral experience. But I do think the same is true of Ulysses and possibly possibly even the stories in Dubliners, including the dead. Because when it's on its feet, as they say, and when we'll actually, you know, seize a representation of the party, meal, speech at the meal, it does somehow. It is most itself, I think, somehow. Yeah, so the orality, the orality, the ear as much as the eye or perhaps even more. Excellent. Thank you. Are there any questions in the audience? We've got mics. There's one here. Hello. I think all four of you have talked about the familiarity, in some sense, of Ulysses in relation to Dublin. In other words, you can use it as an A to Z, you can recognise the phrase geology. Does that mean for us poor people who were not brought up in Dublin and lived the other side that we are actually missing more than your average Ari Shreeder might be? Or you've been given more. Yeah, possibly that too, but if you have the time to figure it out, I suppose. Well, that's probably nuance in it that might go past you, but I mean, there's a lot that might go past you in Ulysses. No, I wouldn't worry about it. We can figure out what move over in the bad or move up in the bad means. I mean, we go towards it. And also, I'm reminded of that poem by W. H. Alden. It's a series of poems called Shorts, and one of them has to do with a valley cheese, as he describes it. A cheese from some valley in France or Switzerland that is absolutely redolent of its terroir, as we say in Ireland nowadays. The specificity of its place, the move up in the badness office, it's precisely for the combination of water, grass, whatever, limestone that has gone through a cow or a sheep or whatever it is to make that cheese. That allows it to be prized beyond its valley. And the same, I think some version of that is true of Ulysses also. We may have some inside track along here and there, but the truth is that it's a little bit like David Lean's film of Ryan's daughter, where someone complained about the fact that Robert Mitcham was it, would never really sound like an Irishman or be accepted as an Irishman to which the feeling was well actually who cares. The Irish film going audience, however large it might be, is a tiny percentage of the worldwide film cinema going audience and nobody's going to care. And I think it is strange where this end is true of Ulysses and that's why it is prized, not only locally but right around the world, far from the valley in which it was made. What a wonderful analogy of the cheese. As an American I will speak to you. Sorry. No, go ahead, Paul. I'm sorry. Andrew, up to you. Well, I just think it's all of them's analogy. It's not my W-A-Jet. I just wanted to, as an American reading Ulysses, I can highly recommend being one of the annoying tourists that Anne was disdainful of in her view. Actually, it was the Irish I was disdainful of. I have been to Bloomsday and there is really something about walking the streets and seeing the Martella Tower and swimming in Sandy Cove. So I think if you can get there it's a really nice thing to do to kind of ground the book in the Tawach. Or just come to Dublin and take the train along Sandy Mount Strand and look out to the horizon there and you understand everything of their proteas. OK, more questions? Got one here in the front row? Sorry, no, we've got one here. Thank you. That was absolutely amazing. Thank you. I don't really want to stab anyone in the eye but I find Dublin kind of alien. I've read Joyce a number of times. My people to go to are Seamus Heaney and Paul because I'm from the north and I come from a very Catholic minority area of a Protestant county and we have sort of a different cultural heritage. And in my view Dublin is foreign. I like Joyce. I love Joyce. Get a passport. I'm going to have to to travel in Europe now. Yes, you're right. But it's just a point that I don't feel that kindred spirit with Joyce about Dublin, though I love Joyce's writing. And I've been to Dublin a number of times. It's just, it is another place. It is not somewhere that I am familiar with. It's really interesting this idea of familiarity because Joyce is full of people being over familiar. But also the book is something that one is invited to experience from the inside as it were. So what we're talking about externality and internality really matters in a way. Can you experience the book even if you're not from Dublin from the inside rather than as an external object? Does that make sense? It makes perfect sense. So it's an invitation to be a Dubliner, is the book. And you're all very welcome, no matter where you're from. Yeah, and I think Ireland is a resolutely regional country. You know from village to village we look at the other side as foreigners. You know that kind of way. And we're proud of who we have locally. And it's wonderful that you're proud of Heaney and Joyce. We are too. We love them too. But you know Cork is proud of O'Flaherty and whoever. You know what I mean? And we have them all. Ulysses just looms so large I suppose. I do think that you can take it on as a project and fall in love with it. But it's not going to be for everybody either, you know. I think that is true but I think it is in danger. Eclipsing, yes. That's kind of Joyce's killing everything argument or overshadowing. And that's the argument that I heard from the male writers in particular that Joyce was a shadow. I think you just have to throw that off as an idea of Joyce taking anything or invading anything or you know. It just exists. It's like complaining about trees or something. But I think it's also like a tourism thing. He's used as a symbol of Irish literature and yet he's long dead etc. We should just all read what we want and love what we want. Cheers to that. And we do revere Heaney in Dublin as well I have to say you know. Of course, of course. He'll be on the bank note next. Is that one of the hilarious things about all this really isn't it that you know he barely did how often did he go back in one back a couple of times in this lifetime and I mean. Whatever the opposite of revered was that was Joyce in Dublin and so it is kind of it somewhat amusing and I'm obviously not the first person to comment on this to see the the reverence for him now. ond mae'n ffordd eich bydder cymdeithas i chi'n tronydd i mor hi'n pwyrwyr, gyda chi'n gynnig o'r ll mornings yma i ei wneud fel hynny. A os gallwch chi'n gwneud, oedd mai'r hyrcaied, oes byddo i gyrfa dnas o'r bobl, oedd yr oedd yn gwneud o'r bobl eich cymdeithio. Nid yw, ond yna, yn wych yn gallu yr hyn yn olog, ond mae'r bobl yn ymddir i'ch rhyfyrnodd. A yn yny'r rhyfyrnoddio. Yned. Well thank you so much for this fascinating conversation. We've been very proud of time. Thanks everybody for tuning in in person and online. It's been wonderful and hopefully Joyce will continue to roll on in the background whether we read him or not and I think we're all grateful for his contribution to Irish literature. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.


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Oh with the colds moving on out of more football everybody You