Yeah, yeah, we're cavemen living in a very advanced. I was watch society. I watched a show yesterday. Sometimes I like to cave person Sometimes I like to play politically correct. Yeah Cave people this guy goes around the world looking at prisons. He served like 15 years and he went to a prison in Papa New Guinea, so it shows on Netflix. I think it's called like worlds. Yeah world's most dangerous prisons So I'm fascinated by cultures in different places. Yeah So this guy's in Papua New Guinea and he's interviewing this one guy in there for things on death death row And he's like what are you in here for is like I killed witch It's like which and So like for me, I'm I was fascinated by I'm like So I'm here. I Have the power. I have more power in the hands of my hand the King of England did a hundred years Oh easily and then I'm more than NASA did in 69 and at the exact same time I have a guy halfway across the world still believe me in witches. Oh, dude Good. Yes Hey, let's So I applied for a huge grant. Yeah, I have a I had a not-for-profit called the critical thinking project That's what took me to Guatemala to teach teachers to teach critical thinking after a five decades long civil war And I applied to this huge MacArthur grant hundred million To and we might want to think about re-applying in the next two years for this my idea was to create Mobile critical thinking units in countries where superstition is still strong to be able to go out into the rural areas like in Africa Albinism how albinos are killed killed.  Yeah, and so I wanted to put together these task forces kind of critical thinking mobile units That would go into these you know the hardest hit places for superstition and there's this group in India That's doing it extremely well This shaman goes into a village and does all this stuff and the people gather round and they can't believe it And then he takes his wig off. He takes his makeup off does this and then he shows them exactly how he did it Haha, it says none of this was magic. None of this was what you thought it was. I'm not a magician I'm not a shaman. I don't believe this stuff. Okay, so there is an episode on Star Trek called who watches the watchers Do you remember this so they're paying attention to a pre-warp civilization Going through a period of their history where they're Slowly moving away from superstition and starting where they have the cloaked device Observatory they're looking they're observing this this town in real time in real time. It's a gigantic Truman show and something happens and Their their cover is blown and now they got to solve this problem Right because all of a sudden these people now are aware are aware and they believe in this new God the God of Picard Mmm-hmm He calls him the Picard the Picard. I saw the Picard. I saw you healed the dead I saw the Picard and so now they've they're in this conundrum this situation where they've literally put the The civilization backwards, right? They were on their way out so much for the Prime Directive now and so much for the primary So Picard decides There's only one way I need to I need to fix his damage and takes one of them the one that was now religious and brings him on board and Shows him and says look we used to be like you Mm-hmm. This is this is the part that just like it's so messed up because we used to be like you You know we've evolved look you there's nothing special. Look, I'm I'm just like you you know I have blood I have respiratory system and After this whole like ten minutes of the show of Picard trying to teach this woman That you know they will eventually evolve to be Stargate like She she turns him says you are very wise the Picard Please I pray to you and she'd like she completely missed the boat after all of this After him trying to explain this whole she completely missed the boat and it goes back to what we were saying I don't know half an hour ago. Even when you give some people the evidence Are they willing? Well, we know for a fact in science that data does not convince people well And then this is it. How do you what do you do we need to do what so Buddha does there's Buddhism 101 here You cannot come with you cannot come as an outsider to do it So you mentioned the shaman in India. He came as an insider as an accepted person. Mm-hmm You need to approach it that way Interesting you have to have somebody they have rapport respect for that they can relate to that's right If you just show up as like let's say I'm a gringo. I show up Well, look at look at Ebola right they're blaming the people who will save their lives as the ones who are bringing it see So I mean you have to do a Houdini on them something like an inception. You have to meet them on their own turn correct Yeah, you have to oh for sure. It's also like basic human psychology is like it's like egoism. Mm-hmm It's like well, who are you to tell me otherwise? Mm-hmm. You're not one of us. You're some outsider, right? And the in the psychological field this is called nudge, right? This is nudging people I don't know if you guys have been to Amsterdam. I have or not. Yeah, the airport Did you use the urinals at all cuz I think so actually they paint little flies in the urinal exactly where they want guys to pee So it reduces the amount of splash back Obama brought him on for his administration to help yeah nudge Yeah, interesting. We just need to hit the target. No target. We're all over the place Yeah, I think we can do that with traffic on the 400 series highways Traffic and I've met with the Ministry of Transportation. Yeah Nash John Nash beautiful mind. Okay. Yeah, so he figured it's game theory. Yeah Yeah, so he figured out how pigeons when you run through them They don't all hit each other sure and fall down, right? There's an algorithmic principle behind that So I took his ideas And I developed them into three basic algorithmic principles That if all people abided by in rush hour traffic, everybody would get to where they want to go quicker Always two car lengths in front of you at any given time.   No one's gonna follow those rules, but we're Canadian We're very good, right at cooperating. Yeah, we're automated cars self-driving cars. That's all an automated Distance true all the way through And you can see you can start to see it and truckers already know it right you can tell truckers move from the trucking lane into the center lane and If you stay with the trucks that lane tends to do better, but as soon as it starts to do better What happens is yeah, right the undulating idiots get in and want to take up that space that allowed it to Move more freely than the ones that were bumper to bumper. I predict in our lifetime. It'll be illegal to drive as a human Hmm in some places. I don't know global in some places.  Yeah, it's getting worse. Yeah year with All of my all of my patients all of my clients for psychotherapy with my one Separate client or motor vehicle accident.  Wow all of them and it's like the same story. It's like Why didn't they stop like why didn't they stop and it's like I can't answer that I can't answer that huh? But the reason why I'm doing psychotherapy in the trenches right now is to see if some of my ideas and cognitive therapy are applicable and actually do have Beneficial value to these people the relational system X when you try to explain to people the reason why accidents occur Yeah, it's like if they've seen hope fiction. They can better understand causal influences of well Buddy got up that morning and whatever was going on in his world for whatever reason He was looking at his phone when he shouldn't have been and he plowed Right into the back end of you and now you feel like this and In our legal systems those people never see each other again. There's never closure right here So bizarre there's no healing they hate the other person in many cases and it's like well, I can understand that Well, where is he now? He's driving around He's fine. His insurance is taking care of everything and I'm not I had a great career. I was doing this I was doing that and now I can't and it's like Not the easiest thing to try to to get somebody to realize why This occurred to them when it did but when when I use a relational systemic model of information Some of them are and the majority of them are very Adaptable to to be able to then see themselves the day of that accident in connection with all of those non-linear factors That were going on at that specific time where if they had started out ten seconds later that day Probably wouldn't have been in that so there's no fingers to point in anybody. There really isn't it's just as huge Deterministic causal chain of events of which you are unfortunate enough to be at a locus point Where there was a convergence of non-linear factors that led to your situation. I always bring up this book I recommend people to read is Victor Frankl's man search for meaning. Hmm. It's like listen I've heard about this. Oh, it's fat one of the best books everyone should read it It's like I can't control what Chris does. Mm-hmm. I can't control that. I got hit in a car accident It just sheer chance. Yeah, you can be More aware blaze Pascal once said, you know chance favors the prepared mind. Yes, so You know, I'm a basketball player and what is that but a series of non-linear events with ten guys. Yes, and Then you have to anticipate Not where everybody is but where everybody is about to be Yeah, so I know when I see this guy heading to the hoop this way, but I'm looking that way I know I'm passing the ball right past the ear of the guy who's on me right in the buddy's hands Because you play it enough, right? It's patterns patterns of non-linearity Yeah, and if you can do that while you're driving you might be a you know that much more capable of trying to Anticipate somebody else's screw up. Yes and get away from that person Yeah, I tell my children when they're crossing the street to always look at the face of the people Driving don't look at the car Look at their faces because that's when you can tell that somebody's paying attention Mm-hmm. I mean if they make eye contact with you, they know that you're there But if they're like off on their own going back to what Chris was saying with his patience and You know, there's there's the fact that what happened to you and Yes, it's a horrible thing to happen I think the more you spend in the past thinking about it's detrimental to your psyche But going back to Victor Frankl's book man's man search for meaning the thing that we can't control right now is our response to exactly That's the only and we know what we can control some of us can better than others most people react but the thing is we can at least be Consciously aware that we have an ability to manipulate and Be better be able to understand Because it's not it's not actually the response It's you understanding what you're feeling mm-hmm and digesting and assimilating that feeling mm-hmm and working with it And then I try to teach them how I know you use the term manipulate and I used to use it as well And then I felt maybe it has too much of a negative connotation. Yeah, I just call it navigate Yeah, it's better word but to say now we need to navigate you through those systems Because the pattern is almost always the same for motor vehicle accident victim They're in somatic pain, right? They've got a neck injury of back injury, whatever That pain disrupts their sleep So now they're not sleeping property properly and now that exacerbates the pain that they're in and that gets them depressed Yes, and now they're suffering from PTSD because of the accident that they're in they're having in vehicle Anxiety having great difficulty now something on my mom. Is that right?  We need we need to just give her enough money for the next six months Yep, standard a physio send her to psych. Yeah, they would rather spend two to three years and Spend that money on lawyer fees to not give that person their just cause and so some people will either try to fix them themselves and In my mom's case, she just ended up Forgoing whatever them out because she's just she didn't want to wait. Yeah, right? She wanted to get on with her life, but she she went through that right? She couldn't sleep She had back aches back aches. She couldn't think clearly. Oh, there's cognitive decline decision-making Paramount she didn't understand. She's like I can't think properly I've got bikers breaking down and they're like why am I crying?  So there's post concussion syndrome and TBI or traumatic brain injury and What we can do is we can start to chronicle Triggers of what makes you go into these outbursts and then we can look for patterns to try to anticipate When you're gonna be in that, you know sequence of events again So that you're better prepared to be able to deal with it when it occurs So it's it's amazing seeing the effects that car accidents have on people from fender benders To people who have lost limb guys who have been in comas for weeks, you know airlifted and on desk doorstep and The different ways in which they respond and come out of it and react and it's just incredible seeing the that whole human Emotional spectrum. Well, I think we'll wrap it up over here


Please have a seat. This is going to be the very short official part of the program. If you look at your agenda, you'll see that there was a representation scandal represented in the U.S. Embassy. Unfortunately, that representative fell ill. So he's not unmaking, but I do want to make sure that the help and assistance of the U.S. Embassy in this particular area is recognized. They're one of our sponsors, so thank you very much, U.S. Embassy in the U.S. Thanks for this. What we'll do here is we'll go through a couple of welcome remarks to let you know what this place is that defined yourselves in. We'll go through the background that they have, we'll go through a couple of harsh rules. I promise not very many rules. Rules are not really my style anyway. And first of all, to introduce you, I officially welcome you to the area. I would like to introduce you to Dr. Achim Doberman, who is our deputy director general for research. The second one, and I want to stop by saying that I wish it had been my idea. Because I always leave since I've been charging the research, I have to deal with lots of new ideas. Some of them are good, some of them are not so good, but we are a place where we always love to have new ideas. And this one came out last year by Mark, one of us, and this is the second time we're trying this. And we don't really see this as fun. This is really something that we hope we can get something out of. And why? Because the business we're in here is not really a business. It's in the research for good purposes. So we are here in a non-profit organization which has been in existence for more than 50 years, 53 years. By now we get support from something like 60 or so different donors worldwide. And our mandate is to essentially do good for our research to find better ways of growing rice. These are for where it becomes more nutritious and the environment is preserved, all of these kinds of things. So we've been doing this obviously for a long time. We operate in many countries in Asia and now it is also quite a bit in Africa. And the innovations that we produce here by now become available to anybody. So we have a global mandate. We are in many ways to reach our public land and open source business. With some restrictions sometimes by five and large that's what we're in. We have a really strong interest to do our work much better, much faster. And sometimes we need an injection of some fresh blood, some fresh ideas and of course a lot of fresh money. But this is about ideas. So when we prepared for the Aikatoa number two, we did ask our scientists to come up with a number of what we think quite challenging problems to crack. Which in reality would make, if we could solve them, make our lives a lot easier. Not only ours but that of many others too. So that's what you're here for. So if you can figure out coming up with some good solutions to those things. I can guarantee you that we'll make use of this. So this is not a fun thing. Even though you're going to have fun, I guess it is, it is fun as a part of it. But fun is a purpose. So I'm really keen to see what you come up with. The experience last year was quite a fun thing for us. It was, I have to admit that probably of a generation of people who don't quite grasp immediately the concept of Aikatoa. But I got it after I saw last year what came out of it. New York was an experience we do these things much more often. But I think it's really a great way of bringing some creative people together. Even a bit of a challenge for us. We're glad that you are here. I see a lot of new faces. That's not too many that I can remember seeing last year. It was great. And so I'm really keen to see tomorrow how much you have come up with. And I think my last piece of advice is don't even think about sleeping tonight. Have fun.


This breakdown is brought to you by DraftKings and that pitch was called a strike, but is probably low Lance Barrett The umpire behind the plate has the biggest strike zone of all umpires That was the scouting report before the game started judges like I don't know about that next inning bottom of the second Vulpie gets that one called on him and he's like that clipped the bottom umpires like yep boon. He's like Geez Lance come on man only the second inning. I'm already getting so frustrated second inning next batter that one's called a strike. That's That's probably not a strike call to strike and now frustration starting to boil over Got some stories. Yeah, I was thinking that Just saying you should fix it Then fix it They're balls little mean stare from Lance as he makes his way back to the plate throws the mask on Boone He's not excited doesn't think he got his message across.  He says something Lance says And get out of here throws him out now Boone gets to walk out have his peace and we get some hot mics Love it. Do you think that's a strike? Honestly, do you think it's a strike? You just called it a strike, but do you think it's a strike and Booney?   Honestly, do you think that was a strike the one you just called Boone wants answers now He's getting an answer and judging from the next sentence. I think Lance is probably saying well If I'm wrong, I don't know you want me to admit that I'm wrong I'm not gonna admit that or something like that because Boone says well If I'm wrong I come out and I say it yeah I wave my hand and Lance is like no you do not do that Boone. He's like that's a ball right there It's a ball.   I know you've got the biggest zone in the league You must know it too.  All right. Good talk I heard you and see you later and Boone says yep got everything I wanted to say off my chest and he gets ejected says here you go you take over now You're the boss have fun and that's the end of this one the seventh time Boone's been ejected this year Thank you very much to DraftKings for sponsoring this breakdown and thank you very much for watching it And if you subscribe to the channel, thank you very much for doing that


Hi, my name is Leon Rowe, currency trader and trading coach at trading180.com and in this video I just want to go over I guess some fundamental analysis that I did in the private members group on the 4th of November, which was this day here, right? And In that private members group I explained to them and you're gonna watch the video in a sec Pretty much why I had a short bias on the dollar, right? This is you know in real time private members group that we hold every Wednesday and You know from that day, you know from the 4th of November until you know the absolute lows You know prices pretty much went around 400 pips now You know picking again a direction When it comes to trading is is is is a big problem for traders generally, right? The second problem is again, you know the timing of when price is going to turn around but if you can And we do it trading180 If we understand which way prices should generally want to go over the medium to long term meaning medium to long term Meaning, you know month to three months Then everything else becomes a lot easier in a sense that the timing then if you understand that you just want to get Sure, all you're looking at is generally just Short trades right at areas of supply or whatever your strategy is so You know the banks use fundamental analysis So why don't we right and I and fundamental analysis is very misunderstood a lot of traders think that you know all you need to you know everything that you need to know is in price action and If that is true, then you know good for them but if you are struggling to pick a direction and you know look up look at a Currency pair and and decide which way it's going to go over the next, you know month or two or three Then fundamental analysis really is for you. It's not easy I'm not saying it's gonna be something that you can master in you know a week or two This is a lot of hard work, which is a reason why you know Probably 90% of YouTube is stick to technical analysis because who can't learn from technical analysis in a couple of days All you need is support and resistance, right break pullbacks and all that and all that stuff trading is obviously a lot more complex than that and And so anyway, I just wanted to show you And I'll continue to show you as well make some more videos You can always go back through my my my youtube channel and look at my past videos on Really how I trade You know the markets using fundamental analysis as my anchor as my guiding light and how You know traders managed to stay on the right side of the trades once You know the fundamental analysis they've completed and the trade idea they've got is sound, right? I'm not saying that we're gonna win every single trade. That's not you know, it's impossible But if you you know, just pick a direction to trade, right? All you're looking for is generally just pullbacks in that direction. Yeah, just pullbacks in the direction of the trend That's all you're looking for anyways Look, I look forward to what say I look forward, but I hope you look forward to watching the video Here's the video here that we did on the 4th of November in the private members group As well just to kind of show you that this was the Video right here course if you do want to join the group you'll get access to all of these videos all these past videos but this was the The webinar that I held on the 4th of November bank hacks and timelines stop-hunt entries And and many other things that I covered in that video But here it is and here's a snippet from it anyway, and I hope you enjoy it And it kind of proves to you and shows you you know that fundamental analysis really is key to successful trading anyways Fed hike Fed hike Fed hike, right? Or are they hiking which is basically a Really a no so Bloomberg at the moment. This is that this is the latest Headline and pal sees fed patience on hikes right but ready to pounce an inflation So fed to start tapering asset buys by 15 billion in November Tape on track to end in mid 2022 can speed up or slow down so for those of you who are new Yeah, but those of you who are new what is what is tapering? So during the The the pandemic and the coronavirus last year what the central bank was doing was literally buying a whole load of government bonds And government bonds are basically government debt Yeah, so they were the buyer of last resort because there was no one else out there that was gonna support any kind of you know By any kind of government debt, right? So the bank stepped in and pretty much was just buying everything buying buying buying buying a load of loaded Government debt to support the government now what they're doing is I don't I can't remember don't know the figure of what they were doing But they were buying let's just say for example Reducing up was it was it something like 60 billion or something like that 60 billion a month? I don't know Something like something in that region. Let's just say it was it was something like that. Yeah, I'm 60 billion every month And what tapering is basically just another word for is just reducing the amount of debt that they're going to buy, right? So, you know, they're saying that they're gonna to start reducing Ken said you mean right now Yeah, yeah, exactly. I don't know what I can't remember what it was right now. What is it right now? What do you know what the um? What the what they're buying every month is it 15 billion a month? I thought they said Yeah, is the taper but what what was the actual government there? It doesn't even really matter just I'm just leaving it as an example. Yeah I noticed they're tapering in it by 15 billion in November So let's just say it was it was 60 billion they were buying but now they're tapering by 15 But it was 120.  Okay, so now what they're doing is they're reducing their um, they're uh, they're 120 billion I was thinking to myself a hundred hundred billion sounded about correct, but I didn't think it was that high but obviously it was But all they're doing is just reducing it by that they're tapering asset buys by 15 billion So let's say for example, it is 120. Yeah It was what it was 120 every month that they're looking to they're looking to buy in government debt Now they're gonna be looking to buy, you know 105 for example 80 bill in treasuries and in mortgages. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah Yeah, the details don't necessarily really matter too much It's more more about the the reduction in what it is that they're buying right so instead of instead of 120 billion for example Now they're reducing it by 105 billion. So what so what does that really mean? Yeah, what that actually means is that the government now are not so much dependent upon the bank to support them Yeah, and by their debt. Yeah, because there are other they're gonna potentially be other investors now that are seeing a recovery and Now can step step in and start buying, you know the debt and then the bank can, you know Can reduce their their bond purchases that is positive for the For the for the dollar or should be positive for the dollar, right? This has already been kind of priced into a certain degree, you know, the rumor started, you know months ago months and months and months and go probably in what was it like March April May something like that and So that's the reason why the dollars kind of being strong for the past like, you know, six months or so five six months So so The next really that the main the next step after tapering, you know, once they go from 105 to maybe, you know 90 billion to you know, 75 billion for example, and that's what's gonna happen potentially every month And as they start to reduce and reduce and reduce The next step is is for for a central bank is to really start to potentially look to hike rates Yeah, because there is obviously the problem of inflation, right? And if you have taken the test then you'll understand that if inflation is above their 2% target then Rates have to be hiked or the likelihood is that rate high A hiking rates is potentially coming. So It's it's a slow path towards or slower path towards a rate hike, but it's positive steps Yeah, it's still positive steps. Now you can compare that for example to this is what we This is this is what we have to do in currency world. Yeah is we look at for example Europe, right? Who says Lagarde is is says ECB is very unlikely to high crates next year Yeah, so they're not they're not looking to the guard is saying that Christine Lagarde is not looking to high crates any time soon Where is the potential? There's a potential for the Federal Reserve to start hiking Next year. I can't remember where they said it. It was somewhere. I've read so many different things But I think it was there was supposed to be a hike in 2022 always start in 2022 anyway, right? Whereas Europe are pretty much not Looking to do any of that. So again the divergence at the moment Yeah, when we consider, you know to currencies for example, you know the dollar or put it as a euro dollar trade, right? Europe Look into high crates maybe in 2023. Who knows all right 2023 The Fed on the other hand are potentially depending on obviously the data are looking to hike or look to start hiking next year 2022 So with that divergence right there or I should say one leading this one leading and it's one lagging Yeah, for anyone who's new Which one should you be buying and which one should you be selling? Either Hubble or Oma Should be buying the dollar exactly that's that's basically where the path for these resistances All right, you should be shorting the euro dollar any pullbacks You know to levels should be areas You know to potentially short that's it So you have your direction So then it's just a case of just looking to take trades in that direction Yeah, that's pretty much what what we're doing and this is how we do our fundamentals from a from a from a macro perspective Is understanding the bigger picture we understand GDP? Yeah and inflation right and Then we can basically see from monetary policy or interest rates. All right interest rates Yeah, what the currency is going to do is it going to is the central bank looking to strengthen it is looking to weaken it Or is it just happy with what it's where the value of that of that currency right now again depending upon inflation and GDP Hubble says supply zones all the way for the EU absolutely absolutely currently that's exactly it and all once you establish That trade idea. Yeah, it sounds complex like a trade idea What have I got to learn for a trade idea? But this is this is a trade idea, right? I'm not I'm not saying that you've got to get short every single supply zone or every single supply zone is going to work They're going to be sometimes in history where you know for a week or two You may get you know a hundred or two hundred pit pullback Ultimately the path of these resistance will be to the downside And this is where traders tend to trip themselves up, you know, I mean if they don't stick to the plan, you know, it's You'll end up trying to go long highs and then trying to sell it shorts and just you know It's a mess right ultimately what we should be doing is looking to you know, just Just to short the the euro dollar until proven otherwise Like I said, are there moments where you can possibly go long? There might be some negative sentiment around a dollar. They might be some positive sentiment around a euro, of course But we evaluate that and no situations and then decide whether it's just maybe short term medium term or long term If it's a long-term thing if the euro starts to strengthen now based off of certain data Then obviously you can start to look to buy the euro But then you would say well, do you want to buy it against the dollar? Is that the bet is the dollar the weakest currency out there? No Then you start to look for the weakest currency you start to go. Maybe you're a Swiss or Euro yen Yeah, and that's that so Ken says especially if we start seeing higher inflation and jobs for the dollar exactly so if we start to see higher inflation and jobs and There was a jobs This came out today so the US companies add more jobs than forecast ADP data shows And why is jobs important because in a growing economy, right in a growing economy in a healthy economy? Employment and unemployment is watched because companies will be employing right in a recession There's high unemployment and low employment in an economy That's growing in the expansion or the boom phase or the recovery phase of the economic cycle You know, you have high employment or higher employment employer employment is growing and you and the unemployment is going down Right, so this is why? Jobs are is something that you have to kind of look at and at the moment There was some positive news today, you know business payrolls increased by 571,000 last month after revised 523,000 gain in September according to ADP research Institute data the median forecast for Bloomberg survey was called at for a 400,000 rise so You know, there is positive data there is rising data, right in July-August kind of tapered off September and then you know, the estimate was 400k But it obviously came in a lot higher. So You know, they added US companies added more jobs than expected. So that is a is a is a decent sign for For for is it non farms is non farms in non farms of the first Friday of the month. I really should know that I've been doing this for years, but First Friday of the month is non farms. So That's pretty much, you know Positive sign right and if the data supports the narrative the data supports that narrative Then it is literally just shorts all the way, right? Even if in the short-term prices go 10 might go higher just if you're looking at better prices to go short That's pretty much what this is so So, yeah, so so for now no major surprises, of course The divergences are still there. You can nitpick all you want all day is as to what, you know Jerome Powell, you know is is really saying and things like that and I definitely advise people to do that Of course, you know look at the devil is in the details, right? But overall you've got to You know, you've got to Look at who is the dog with the least these what sounds worse if something sounds a bit uncertain But something sounds a bit more uncertain then, you know, the one that's more uncertain is going to be the one that you want to sell