Good afternoon, I'm Shikhar, working for Capricade Technologies. I'm expertise in integrating business analytics, statistics, with the technology to empower the business managers. So today's session will be more focused on how your favorite retailers can take money out of the analytics. Now this is the dicey question where is it the technology helping the business team group, or is it the statistics, or is it the analytics? My answer would be like it's a combination of all the three which is making the business more prominent and more technical. Since yesterday we have been having a session on banking, finance, media, and this is more concentrated on retail. Retail business where day to day we go to a shopping, we have a food and grocery, we buy apparels, we go to a restaurant, we order a pizza. So all this comes under retail analytics. Here we are going to focus on the retail analytics area where the whole outcome of this presentation would be or take away three insights, possible three things which can go out of this room and just implement it as immediately as possible and improve the favorite radius of business. So this do include the techniques what has been implemented and how that needs to be implemented, how that needs to be executed, and what is the impact due to implications of these techniques. The biggest breakthrough in this new era of retail analytics is integration, integration between a business person with a statistics and a technology. I'm not sure how many of the technicians, tech geeks are here and analytics geeks are here or business managers here. Can I have some hand raises for tech geeks, statisticians? So this session offers a whole set of audience where it will be concentrated on both of them. The first breakthrough is a real-time engagement model. Have you ever imagined the step in your store, the store staff, the retailer has received you very well with the name, with the purchase what you have done, what is the impact of it, he takes a feedback of the products, he takes a feedback of the suit you have bought in the previous purchase and then he recommends what is the best product for you. Seems surprisingly very easy with the unorganized states. When we go to our type recipes or type recipes or the villages, the retailer knows the name, what we do, what we like, do we like suit, this is like his very, his up-to-date on all the information. Can we implement the same kind of a thing on a bigger retailer, like a Big Bazaar or Shopper Stop or a Lifestyle where the store staff is more attracted to the consumer with the real-time technology. So this real-time technology has been improved the retailers by 4%. Then going in the further sites will understand how that 4% has been increased using this technology. The second part is, we know the data is coming from social media, the data is coming from e-commerce, the data is coming from online, lots of data, tons of data. Does it make sense if we integrate the whole things? Now, how it can be helpful? As we heard in the yesterday's of your sessions also, that if you are making a transition in your credit card, EBOE, 1 lakh or 2 lakhs, there's an immediate call comes to you saying that as the purchase has been done by you, or is it a fraud? The banking industry is very much mature enough to have this technology in place. But the retail is very new. It's very new due to two reasons. One, kind of a scope, kind of a data which was captured in the past. Now, due to the technology improvement in the current decade, you have started capturing the data. How that can be helpful? As simple as that. If a customer stepped into your store, has given you a mobile number and an email ID, and he logged into your Facebook after a day, where he has actually allowed the credentials to share with the, let's say, the Puma, or a jewelry like, jewelry like Ketanjali. So, he shares the information with the Ketanjali. And after the 10 days after that, he changed his marital status to an engaged. How do you feel if someone calls you up, he interlinked your email ID, he interlinked your mobile number, someone called you up, so it's good to have, good to have that your engagement has been fixed. Can you have some shopping at a jewelry shopping at DTanjali store? So, the quality of information is there. The events has been tracked. The consequences of these events can be tracked very easily. So, here we will be talking about some integration between all these techniques. Well, we are talking about personalization and customization. This is on the basis where customers as an individual, not a group in it, will go further into this customer as an individual, how the Bayesian prediction models and linear regression models has helped retailers to increase their sales. To give a brief introduction of the retail industry, retail accounts to 15% of the Indian GDP, which accounts to 470 billion. And there are 11 shops out of 1000 people. But of course, having said that it is 470 billion GDP, there is only hardly 3 to 4% as an organized sales. Now today, as of today, there is the data which we are capturing of the whole population in India is only 3%. Now, as the organization sales keeps on improving, that kind of data will be captured will be very higher. 60% comes from verticals other than food and grocery. True. So, always the analytics is more constantly in food and grocery. How we can implement to cut up? How we can implement to cut up? Is that business? How we can implement that to cut up? How we can implement that to an apparel business? How we can implement that to footwear sales? And as behind the scenes, it's very important that analytics can be helpful everywhere. So, what is the challenge in retail industry? One is, is it really the data hygiene is the issue? Or the lack of it? I mean, how many of you feel that the data hygiene is the issue in the retail industry? Okay, lack of it? So, you are seeing that there is a 6000 TB of data has been captured in the year of 2011. Compared to internet data, hardly it seems like internet data has been captured on a day. But it's much very valuable information where the complexity, calculations and complexity predictions will matter in the retail industry where we are going to focus today. Now, connecting the customer online, offline and social media is very important because seeing an innovation has been making the transactions across. The other thing is playing with the state of data. Now, coming to an example like a grocery industry where there are 1000s of products, 1000s of products. It's very difficult to understand which product is moving with which product. Always we do in a categorical manner which category is moving with other category. But is it, is it, is it, there is a scope of improving, a scope of improving the business through the retail data? Yes, there is a huge scope of it. Now, why is it a limited tool to analyze data is more tools have been developed by the big MNC for a banking industry but there are very few less tools for a retail industry. So, what are the typical business problems in a retail? Typical business problems in a retail hardly have a campaign conversion up to 2-3%. There is a campaign, there is a promotion which is executed in the retail industry hardly 2-3%. But really speaking, a banking industry have a higher scope of conversion state because the fact that there is less competition, there is less general rate, the customer going away is very less because he stick to the brand. If he changes to other bank he need to change his loan account, he need to change his investments, he need to change a lot of things. Whereas I buy a footwear in a woodland and tomorrow itself I can go and buy footwear in a puma. Whereas in an Indian industry, that's a problem in an Indian industry where no person is more loyal towards any brand. Can any people is agreeing with me that no person is a brand to any particular brand. So, it's loyalty loyalty comes into the picture where Indian people are more relaxed and will keep on shopping across the brands. So, that was the biggest problem. Now, how we can tackle that problem? Can we do something when the customer is in the store when he is already purchasing? Can we do some in-store engagement activity? How that can be achieved through analytics? How that can be achieved through technology? It can cover in the next couple of slides. The second problem is high communication cost and less relevance. We have seen in the most of the developed countries the communication cost is up to $1 for the direct mailers. And even the text cost in the EDM cost is very higher. Yeah. We have heard about a propensity model. Can you lift up to 2, 3 times of the lift? Yeah. So, the propensity model is based on one objective saying that how many set of customers how many set of customers can respond to a beauty way beauty products campaign? How many set of customers can respond to an EDM? How many set of customers no appliances can be? No.  Can we build something which can cover whole set of marketing initiatives? In our experience we have built our 15 propensity models we are going to detail afterwards. But if we have built 15 propensity models to tackle the marketing initiatives for the whole one year it's not an ad hoc but it's a whole one year they have made a prediction models to make sure how they are coming in the future. The third problem is the customer cooperate. 80 to 85% it's like huge hardly 50% of the customers are your loyal customers. Where are the remaining customers are going on? So, need to engage its customers neatly by understanding the customer in a better manner. Just to show the prediction algorithms we have categorized. We all know marketing. The kinds of marketing and the kind of analytics we do right now the kind of analytics what we do right now is we define a marketing activity which needs to be planned in the next couple of years for the next couple of months. What that marketing activity should be? What do we do? We do logistics, we do predictions we do discriminant models to predict when the customer is going to come what the customer is going to purchase. Now there is the after marketing activity where we understand the kind of hypothesis what we've considered before marketing activity is valid or not. Use text mining to find out to concise the feedback feedback analysis, to concise the customer complaints and we all thought about during install activity which is the execution has happened the plan of the execution has done in between the execution and before execution after execution there is one more level of technology came into picture due to the cloud based solutions due to the real time technologies which is during install activity we will engage when the customer is in the store so that's a real time power of the real time results how does it works now taking example as a grocery store we went to purchase on a grocery store and he purchased a basket of basket of goods analyze the basket of goods what exactly is present in the basket what exactly is not present that fits into the recommendation where the current recommendations in general the typical traditional way of processing is we compare what product is going with what as simple as that which is we are currently covering what really goes with what to marry it with a business objective there are two other points which is getting missed out is what the customer is missing in the basket that's something the customer need and it is getting missed out in the basket one, two have you understood have you ever understood have you ever thought about does this customer need it or is it a push from the marketing so that's two major points actually driving the business to the next level so here with the four factors which is what is missing in the basket what really goes with what customer past purchase data and business objective so all this happens in in a store where the billing happens so in the meanwhile the scanning of the scanning of the scanning of the whole items is happening whole this real-time algorithm works out what the customer needs so the system throws up with the instant suggestions and it shows off what is a real-time institution how that needs to be executed that's an independent business impact which is the retailer is making money how it flows this customer stepped into a store he purchased so after he purchased we understood what he needs we understood what is missing in the basket and then we value the patronage of the customer and we offer you something at the store so where the conversion rates can go up to 5 times or 6 times really that makes wow to the customer but how it works so this is more on the statistics way and more on the approach how we are but let me tell you in a very simple way so we have considered the products in a grocery store what are all the products available in the grocery store pick a just grocery what is the percentage that B will be going with A if A is present in the basket as simple as that as all the statisticians love to work on the two levels of layer now the complexity comes in where I want to define the three for layer 4, layer 5 to understand what exactly is there in the basket so this is more on the using the base probability but the same kind of a thing can be done using the appropriate algorithm but because the pros and cons of both algorithms are much different here in this context we are using the base in probability to understand if the what is the probability of C buying C if the A and B are already in the basket what is the probability which is in the past history of the customer and past history of the other customers we can get to know what is the probability of ABC together by probability of A multiplied by probability of B saying that A is already in the basket so this can be extended to the n layers which we call it as a n layer basket where it will be keep on moving if the customer purchase today he purchase A and B and D so immediately the A flows A to B, B to D and then the layer 4 comes in the picture what A, B, D and what else can go with the customer's interest so all our information I am sorry we have one of our product where all the information the customer is storing at the store this is the customer's current basket or the other company so this is currently analyzing the data which is currently presented in the basket current basket now what can be done so after this the second step of the algorithm is where it will check now we have studied about the missing basket now the second step would be what customer needs it really the product E is given by the customer is a need for the customer when the product E has been purchased how many days back whether it has purchased 10 days back or 20 days back if it is a 10 kg of Ata which has purchased 10 days back there is no point in giving initiative on the Ata again right now so what will happen is it will learn about the past history whether when that particular last product has been bought is it is the real need of the customer or not the second step of it now so we can build up to as many rules as possible and at the end of a bill or end of a slip you get as a bill that the whole missing basket can be printed out of these could be the possible missing baskets in your can in your del no that is the system rules which has been taken care of so once should I answer it right now or at the end of the session once it is done I will take that question so there is a selection rule and a rejection rule which we are talking about the past purchase and behavior is very important very important in some kind of rejecting something or selecting something and all this happen on a click where the scanning is happening so now we have studied about how we can through the real time technology we can increase the conversion rates up to 2-3% we have seen in the studies it has actually went up to 20% and raise the customer's retail this is the 4% now coming to the interesting part would be the interesting part would be actually there is a flow problem so we have studied about the philosophy stuff how we can change the things in a departmental store right now the departmentals should have a different set of different varied categories men's wear, women's wear and home appliances, electronics that has different set of products in a departmental store so can we do something which is suitable to the whole market for the whole one year not just for one of the month or one of the day or one of the week so there comes a big complex data along with the marketing offers so more or less the marketing has been in the saturation state for the last 50, 20, 50, 100 years everyone knows what actually needs to be executed everyone knows what needs to be done and what should not be done so taking those into consideration can we mingle, can we merge with that with the big and complex data so how that can be done we have approached in a different manner where there are 15 propensity models there are 15 marketing different offers so typical propensity model will give a result of we will make sure we are targeting 20 to 30% of the customers but this kind of approach will make sure one customer we get two or three offers at least and the best offers best marketing offers to them so 15 propensity models has been built based on the 15 marketing marketing initiators using logistic and disconnect and then the primary challenge in terms of statistics is merging all the 15 propensity models into one and assigning the best one offer one, offer two, offer three against each customer and that has been tagged for the whole one year and it can be executed at any point of time without any lag lag in the execution so after applying this we can do a design of experiments how this impact can happen where the random way of doing a propensity model with one propensity model actually can give a lift up to only two to three gaps but when actually multiplying this up to 15 propensity models and make sure all the customers sets of customers come in the picture 20% conversion where the profit would have been multiplied by 25 times so now interestingly departmental store we have studied and now can come into a pizza business how that works we all like a pizza and are allowed to have an order every week or every week so pizza loyalty program is more than a group more than a group rather than an individual needs to be changed into your family loyalty program internally what we have done was to tag in the customers so instead of treating as a customer we treat it as a family the whole set of four people belong to one family how this can impact the business is when I'm doing a direct mailer I don't know the customer one and customer level are the same but while using this all this regates algorithms and phenotic and edit distance we have merged the customers the whole merging has actually merged 20% of the customers which actually decrease the marketing cost by 20% simply without any impact, without any changes it has actually decreased the 20% marketing cost coming to this pizza business who is your customer so typically we do a clustering or segmentation and say there is my high level customers there is my high standard customers there are my discount seekers, there are my potential customers can we do something more than that are we missing something do you like to have a chicken takeout pizza every time so this is not actually taking care of the segmentation here this is not taking care of any chicken takeout pizza or your favorite pizza or your garlic bread or your pasta what we have done is we have took a taste clustering also into picture which is saying you tend to have the same pizza every time or you tend to have three different pizzas alternatively how you change your pizza preferences comes in the y-axis dimension and then further we have built down into 17,000 segments taking the significant variables from the price to a model price to a test with seven dimensions now interestingly in pizza we have understood that the stickiness of the pizza is up to 60% the same person ordering on a Saturday evening last week and he tends to order the Saturday evening again so that's a very brief insight which actually made us to make a high level of segments where the customer will be treated as a unique individual rather than a group so how it works in a week so how it works customer made it first purchase second purchase and third purchase now after this last purchase after this last purchase when is the next order can you predict that using the number of customer visits the last purchase micro segment is the way it belongs to customer frequency using linear regression models all this actually tend to make a continuous engagement with the 17k so this is actually avoiding a marketing person to get away saying actually there is a change in that there is a difference in do the campaign today don't it's a different way of approach where we see that the customer is customer customer is actually a customer not a job businessman he actually adds a value to it so make customer engagement plan rather than pushing something to the customer so this linear regression technique actually takes care of external events like cricket and football matches also so how we can grow the retailer's business so if we have more data decades back 20 years back we don't have any data in the retail where we see we acquire the customer engage the customer retain the customer and grow the customer how the lifetime value is to be increased it's like negligible what happens if non analytics data driven marketing happens where there are lots of bulk things that's happening to you bombarded to you without any analytics so it can grow up to a certain after that it can drop off but we ask how the how the if you are doing with an analytics way it is going to help your business and retain your business quite a long time so here we have a very good examples where all customers are treated similarly $1 investment has given a $8 of ROI written and when the customer has treated some greatly without 17k segments $1 investment has given a $9 simply by introducing a linear regression technique to understand predict when he is going to order a visa make an improvement like $1 investment has given another $20 so this is a real case study of how we have grown the business to the retailer in the past thank you any questions one of the problems so regates is a regular expression it compares the strings so it can extract the house numbers it can extract land mask for you so regates expression so this is more on the statistics side and the technology side where our regular expressions can be used one of the problems I see is integrating with augmented views so how do you manage so we have we are majorly in India where we have integrated most of the power systems because of which the whole online data and the offline data can be integrated across the whole platform so that is actually helping in making this get an engagement plan very well so you tell us about your behavior of the user yes yes are you guys doing the cross promotion no, no, no we do for one of the business in India only one editor just wanted to ask are you specific to tough examples like visa and repair house names like online shopping so real time is very easy so I will go to my question in this case you are associating a cluster number when you actually associate this with the online online shopping how do you associate the end user attributes so the end user attributes can be captured or can be registered in the store can be registered in the e-commerce website or in the social media whenever it could be the registration can happen in one shop so currently the real time association what I am talking about is in the store yeah, so this is going to be about point of sale yeah, point of sale because point of sale is a very difficult part because the integration comes into the picture with the different power systems should I so simply your and your brother and your father would have an order but the address would happen see yeah, so if someone wants to a direct mailer campaign mentioning over a postal letter and send you a cost instead of sending three direct mailers to your home we will send him only one so in our database currently using that matching the address algorithms we figured out that there is a 20% set of customers who tend to order from a different number where simply the marketing cost got down by 20 years I think we can take the question


When we evaluate a property, the first thing we evaluate is, is it significant? Does it meet one of our national register criteria? The next step is to evaluate its historic integrity. Historic integrity is defined as those physical characteristics that are tangibly related to the importance of that historic property. There are seven aspects of integrity that we evaluate properties under. Location, setting, design, workmanship, materials, association, and feeling. Those seven aspects of integrity are all important, but they are weighted depending on why a property is important. So a property that is significant under criterion C for its architecture, for its distinctive characteristics of a period or type of property, or of the work of a master, or of high artistic value. Integrity of design is paramount. Integrity of workmanship is important. Integrity of materials is essential. Integrity of location may be compromised. A moved property that is a significant example of a pratt through truss bridge can still be a significant example of a pratt through truss bridge if it has been relocated. However, if you're going to nominate a property for its association with events, criterion A, location is of utmost importance because that's where the event took place. The feeling that the property engenders in you is important. Does this look right? Do I get that sense of time and place is important? The design may not be as important. What would be important is those aspects of design that help define the event. Interior spaces should be reflective of that period when that event occurred. But the fact that the building itself may have been altered over time is of less importance. We weigh the integrity of design or workmanship less than we would location, setting, and feeling in association.


Blue skies provide the perfect setting for a day of parachuting. American soldiers and airmen took flight with their Latvian counterparts at Lille Varde Air Base to do some static line jumping. We're jumping today with all the foreign countries. The reason that's important is we're always working with different units and to know how they operate and how they jump is just better on us, better training for us too. After gearing up on the ground, the C-130 climbs to 1,000 feet and once the jump master gives the signal. It's time for Senior Airman Jordan Thompson's favorite part. I like the falling. It's awesome to be able to look out and see everything and see everybody else. It's fun. A drill and rush. While Senior Airman Thompson, a joint terminal attack controller with the Illinois National Guard has jumped many times, Exercise Saber Strike marked one personal first. I was excited. I've never been out of the country so this was cool for me to see it. As the jumpers pack up their shoots after another successful day in a new country, the joint training continues on the ground at Saber Strike 15. Air Force Staff Sergeant John Archiquette, Lille Varde, Latvia.


Okay, very good morning to everyone is Monday the 11th of May. I hope you had a good long weekend if you're based in the UK My name is Anthony Chung. I'm the head of market analysis here at Amphi trading. We have a small proprietary trading arm We also specialize in trader development And we have some proprietary technology that we've created that's been being used by business schools and Corporates all around the world in regards to financial market simulation training So if you like more information about that then on the red bar at the bottom of this video There's a link do go and check that out if you have time and remember to like and subscribe to the channel So daily updates I'll be doing every morning and also my colleague Eddie Which you might have seen will be releasing videos over the weekend where he talks about some other subjects of interest as well And a bit more detail Macro menu. This is a piece. I write just to remind you every Sunday And I'll issue it via my Twitter account as my handle and I talk about generally the week ahead So what's my role? Well, I specialize in kind of market fundamentals So I don't look at any charts. I leave that to you guys But what I do talk about are some of the things I'm going to expand upon in this briefing this morning And that is then hopefully getting you in the best possible position for you to be able to trade successfully throughout the week so without further ado, let's have a look at the charts this morning and It's a fairly muted open all things being considered. We also had non-farm payrolls on Friday and that figure came in at minus 20.5 million the rate of job loss in April so in one single a month basically eroded all of the job growth that we had seen since the global financial crisis going back to 2009 so quite an Historical moment. However, as you can see on the charts stocks rallied Teen notes initially fell and gold came under pressure. So completely the counter Move to what you would logically think would happen But this of course as we know has been very much expected to have been the case And if anything the unemployment rate was slightly lower than expected 14.7% Expectations worth the 16 could have been as high as 25 as far as some of those analysts rangers were concerned And the actual headline reading at minus 20.5 was actually slightly lower than expected and also well off the Worst case scenario of 28 million that some analysts were calling for so all in all it's been a bit of a Kind of continuation of that disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street, which you've probably heard people say before And that's pretty much being reflected this morning. There's not a great deal of new developments over the weekend Yes, some COVID-19 updates as governments look to unveil more of their Loosening of the restrictions over lockdown. I'll talk about that in a moment, particularly from the Prime Minister in the UK last night There's also a few other things about potential for negative interest rates in the US Is that a thing could we see that and like what we've had in Japan in the eurozone? We can discuss and then there's a few other pieces to be aware of for the week ahead as well So let's get into things and let's start with this This is a graphic that I saw that I thought encapsulates in a different way How markets have been reacting because obviously economically we're in incredibly stressed times at the moment And that probably is not going to change anytime soon. So this week Some of the major data points we've got coming out of the United States include things like retail sales For example, US retail sales are expected to fall 10% in April This comes after the previous month of March, which we saw just four weeks ago Also came in at an 8.4% decline, which was the worst on record. So retail sales going to get worse in America We've got industrial productions anticipated to fall 11.5% again much worse than the prior month So things definitely bad actually from a real impact at the moment on the economy in the States However, as we know equity markets keep keep rallying So what we're looking at here are two things one the green is the S&P 500 And this is going over the the course of the last two months of price action So where we bottomed out of course on the March 23rd before we commenced this pretty awesome rally that we've had since then But on the flip side then the red is something which quite a few people in markets tend to look at It's the city so as in city group the city US economic surprise index So simply put it's looking at what is the median expectation and how much does the actual figure derive from that point And as you can see then zero would be an inline reading Anything below zero would be a negative surprise miss against market expectations And as you can see they've been big misses to the downside and yes We've had a slight recovery of late, but still it is depressed Substantially at the moment so even though and less expectations are low We continue to see even worse outcomes more often than not perhaps payrolls as I explained just being a bit of an exception But despite that equities keep rallying now One of the things that we've seen and a few obviously points that lead to this are the the monetary and fiscal reaction that we've had This is a look at the Context I wanted to show you of the current rate of unemployment in America And on Friday we saw that coming at fourteen point seven percent Wanted to put it in context of the global financial crisis, which you can see we got up to around ten percent Which was similar to the peak that we had in the eighties We still got quite a way to go But it could well be the case that we test or perhaps breach then the the unemployment rates that we saw in the great Depression of the 1930s because don't forget that we're going to see continued layoffs over this period Remember even though we've had five consecutive weeks of US jobless claims decreasing They've still been to the tune of four or three million So we can anticipate that this is going to move north most likely to potentially above to the twenty percent region One of the things then that we've had over the weekend a couple of speakers In particular Steven Mnuchin the Treasury Secretary He said that the staggering US unemployment rate report on Friday Amid the coronavirus lockdown may get even worse So kind of prepping the ground for what is yet to come And this has led them to the White House has started apparently informal talks with Republicans and Democrats in Congress About the next steps on a corona virus relief legislation according to officials on Sunday So don't forget though since early March Congress basically has in Capitol Hill has signed off Approximately three trillion dollars to combat the pandemic so far So they're looking at further ways and means to top that up And one thing that I thought was really interesting Let me just see if I can bring this up if I just quickly search it. There was a really excellent graphic Actually, I posted it in my my macro menu, which is here and this is looking at essentially Obviously, we can't forget we've got a US election coming up and obviously the the severity of the economic Implications on people's livelihood It's going to be probably a key point of what's going to be important Consideration for those that sit within a toss-up state Do they believe then that Donald Trump has acted appropriately in the measures that he's taken and what other Ways and means would have Biden gone about business if he were at the helm and what we're looking at here Then is Mapping out the United States I eat the various different states and workers in toss-up states among those hardest hit by COVID-19 lockdowns And there's some particularly interesting ones Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada consider key battleground states for Trump and Biden That they would need to secure in order to win the presidency and as you can see So here Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada They have been some of the hardest hit in terms of the seasonally adjusted weekly unemployment insurance claims so it definitely something to keep an eye on Trump remaining pre-resolute that you know really this is not his problem It's a problem of taking out his hands caused by the Chinese and so on which we've seen But this definitely will be something which I guess will need to be tracked as we go through the the months to come Of how this is playing out in the political polling Going back to then Another graphic and we were talking about there This disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street and this has got a lot of people asking questions about you know this the Significance or aggressiveness of the bounce that we've had is pretty unprecedented and you can see here This is a chart that's being made by Analysts at Sok Gen the French Bank and basically it's looking at the cumulative returns from market bottoms for bear markets from 1870 onwards in terms of percentage So here the blue line is the 2020 pandemic price movement Then all bear markets is the kind of red line and then all bear markets Including the Great Depression is the blue line Now one thing you can see in terms of observations here is if you x out the kind of v on any of these Then if you look at the blue line you can pretty much draw a straight line so we move back on track to the Pre-event trend Probably within about 20 months or so after the event in itself occurs So if you apply that rule of thumb in about two years time or so markets Then return back to where we were because of generally the measures that are taken in order to counteract that economic situation The difference here and what has a lot of people mixed of opinion at the moment is The sharpness of the recovery. I mean if you look at this I'm not sure if you can even call that a v. It's almost like an x it's happened so quickly um You know, it's almost vertical in a sense and so here then the recovery has been just so much More quick than it has in the past. It's usually taken approximately I would say from that downturn I mean you're looking at about 10 15 months before we'd get to a similar point to where we are at the moment so Some side of the table questioning is that you know, is it just too fast at the market overstretched itself here and And certainly a few banks like goldmans We've talked about before anticipating a bit of a decline before then the eventual push-up Or is this truly a new New reality that we live in you know the the size and scope and reach Of the measures taken not only by say the federal reserve and other central banks globally But also the size of the fiscal packages that have been unleashed Absolutely dwarf anything that's been seen in the past. So is this actually a fair reality for that? What's being deployed so far? I guess we'll find out soon But yeah, I thought it was quite interesting a graph and I'll share these Later and I'm going to tweet a few of them as well So do check that out. Um quick move back though to the covid situation Because obviously this is still one of the main things we're we're looking at at the moment because And something I talk about in my macro menu that I released yesterday was that yes There's this big disconnect between the kind of severity of the economic reality Comparative to the pricing of financial instruments at the moment, particularly the equity market And we've got some data to look out for this week But overall I think a lot of the market is more focused on still covid-19 and the government's Ways and means to get back to some degree of normality Because this is obviously a key One of the key components of why markets are reacting like they are We're anticipating then that the loosening of these Restrictions is going to allow economies to gradually reopen and this of course is very important then for Current pricing because it means that then the kind of the economy can get going again And jobs can be Found and and an income can be recovered and so on Now what we've got here are a few different things France, Spain, Denmark, Norway and the uk will all lift some measures New York in terms of the state of New York. They're due to release some more information today The uk the prime minister spoke you probably would have seen last night Um, they've kind of switched now to being alert rather than stay at home as their new phrase. However I believe wales scotland, northerland have not followed suit of england In adopting that type of situation. So there has been a bit of a splinter in that sense for the uk If you're not already up to speed From today, they're actively encouraging people to go to work if you can't work from home But they're being more explicit and saying this is regards to construction manufacturing those types of jobs not Kind of office-based work and from wednesday unlimited exercise sitting in parks playing sport with families driving to different locations can be allowed If the earliest june 1st reopening of some shops and primary schools I did see dominic rab talking this morning saying the absolute earliest that it could be For pubs and restaurants would be around the force of july And i'm afraid gentlemen for anyone who is awaiting a haircut no haircuts I'm afraid until earliest of july according to dominic rab This morning, so you're going to have to get your clippers on order from amazon for the time being But elsewhere though it hasn't been complete smooth sailing and I guess if anything we can use Places like china and south korea. Perhaps there's a bit of a litmus test of Just the precarious nature of unwinding of lockdown too quickly and the significance that that can have on a secondary Wave of infections and so over the weekend has been small but new outbreaks in south korea china and germany Just to be aware of They're having to kind of bring in some new measures again to counteract that from becoming more significant So definitely worth keeping an eye Over the this week. I would say it's probably more of the coming weeks I'd say actually what the UK government is proposing is very graduated But I wouldn't have expected anything different and net net there's been absolutely no impact on the currency markets This morning on the back of the the latest reports The p.m. Though is due to Publish, I think a 50 60 page document about these measures in more detail parliament later today And he's going to be taking questions later on this evening just for those interested Moving on though to a couple of other subjects. I want to wrap up before we finish and this is one where what I'm looking at here are I'm looking at fed funds rate or the effective fed funds rate Which is the light green line and the darker line is the december 2020 future So we're looking at kind of short-term interest rate futures here And interestingly at the end of last week, we had quite a symbolic thing happen And looking at the profile here. It shows a negative rates in the us Taking hold from the end of this year. You know, this is where we are at the moment So december futures are now pricing negative Or were just by a few basis points at the end of this year hitting the deepest negative territory by mid 2021 and subsequently returning to positive territory by early 2022 So in the futures market, there are some positioning now potentially for negative rates in the us That could well kicking in a few months time and then stay that way before then coming back up in early 2022 now for those who are Unfamiliar with the notion of negative interest rates Obviously, it is something that has happened in other developed markets around the world But in short negative rates would punish banks for leaving excess cash with the central bank And thus forcing them to lend which in turn boost investment In terms of business investment and also consumer spending and so then for by default You're just looking to get the the grease the wills of the economy if you like get things back in motion What i'm going to do is rather than go into that in more detail There's a great article for anyone who is unsure about these types of things From Reuters. I'm going to pop that into the video Description and you can read that in your own time Now what does this actually mean? Well, I think it is Pretty symbolic in a sense, but how how clear is it as a reality that it's going to come to fruition? I would say from the bank reports as reading the weekend probably highly unlikely negative rates would punish banks believing What which would squeeze their their margins in a sense that'd be very problematic for the banking sector would be forcefully pushed back upon I guess on to the Fed to discourage them from doing so But also if you look at the likes of the eurozone With the ECB or the Bank of Japan who have adopted negative interest rates So they've they've not really had a great deal of success And I think the Fed will be more looking to put the pressure on the government to provide something That's much more definitive to help boost them through the fiscal measures and increases what we've seen With like what's been alternated by Press on capital hula over the weekend would probably be the more appropriate action I would say at this point in time one thing to be aware of though Fed chair Jerome Powell has now Scheduled in a speech on current economic issues and obviously this will be a big one. He's going to talk about They haven't really gone too much into this in any great detail. It doesn't look like anything It's going to happen anytime soon But I'm sure he's going to be questioned on that and that's going to be I'd say one of the main events of the week When it happens later on Wednesday Okay, a few other things Just following on from some of the press coverage it got last week The european commission At the weekend said they could open a legal case against germany overruling by its country's Constitutional court that the ECB had overstepped its mandate with its bond purchases according to the eu Executive arm at the weekend So again, this comes after that german court last tuesday said that the ECB had three months to justify Their their bond buying program. Otherwise the bundesbank might have to quit it so Yeah, when I tweeted this on saturday night a lot of backlash obviously about the longevity of the EU And people's thoughts on that it's quite in it's always very interesting when you talk about politics and they have to do with europe or brexit The virus included people get very emotive about it All in all, I would say as per what's reflected in european assets this morning This is not important at this point in time. It is important overall, of course But in terms of an intraday monday morning, I don't think this is a great deal of surprise Now I kind of base my reasoning On a few different things But mainly to do with the fact that usual legal process is to respond then in kind to something that arrives at your door in a sense of a of a legal Contest so I don't think it's that surprising that the EU are going to formally come back with something And I've read a few other pieces this morning Talking about that. Look the EU could have just blind blindly ignored this But that obviously would have raised more questions and answers and so fact that they're willing to give this true process Is actually quite a good thing The other thing as well from it from an EU point of view, of course They want to be sure that they're taking quite a definitive and firm stance in order to stop other national courts that sit within the eurozone umbrella From doing the same. So there's a few other pieces going on here politically I don't I think I think people are making a bit of a mountain out of a molehill with this but certainly it is a Um an issue that does need to be resolved obviously by that stop clock of the three months, which the german court had placed on them I guess from a more market Perspective the important thing here is at the moment christine legard the head of the ECB has said the ECB is Undeterred in supporting euro area economy So at this point while the courts are kind of sparring it out as the headline saying The ECB is just going to push ahead with their stimulus program And so they should at this point because there hasn't actually been any definitive legal change That's happened as yet. These things take time A few other final points oil. Um, just wanted to show this Firstly what i'm looking at here are On the bottom axis is june september december march. So just putting into context the last Kind of year or so and their bars are representative of net bullish wages So these are kind of speculative open futures contracts Which we can derive them for how bullish or bearish markets are by their kind of speculative positioning And then we're looking at the overall price on the axis on the left of the west texas' intermediate future So here looking at the front month, which is trading this morning at around 25 26 dollars Now hedge funds boosted their net bullish wages and wti To the highest of the year as you can see here going all the way back to on the far left hand side In the week ended april 28th according to the latest data on friday submitted by the cftc us drill rigs dropped as well by another 33 so actually below 300 now So that means us rigs are now at their lowest level since september of 2009 So again the the idea of getting another Kind of run on these futures contracts pushing us into negative territory. I think that ship has sailed now For various different reasons the usos spreading out the average durations From generally those cuts now kicking in from the opec plus and g20 the oil producers That's going to alleviate as well. Just generally some of the calmness in markets And the reopening of some of the areas like in what china what we've seen should help just alleviate some of the pressures on cushing in terms of getting near to that maximum capacity And so markets are getting a little bit more bullish again. So You know, I wouldn't over interpret this and think right I'm just going to get into now and get along the oil market. I think the point i'm trying to say more so Is that I think the the days of the negative price have probably passed now And so at this point you'd be looking technically at different levels of downside support to help keep this price Which has been relatively in consolidation really since Really the sixth so going back to mid week last week. We've kind of been holding around that 24 50 level in the futures market Kind of contained between 24 and a half and 27 and a half has been the price range in the front months future for the moment The finals famous here. Well, I thought were quite good for From a trading point of view just to be mindful of Obviously, we have seen an increase In the the tip for tap between china and the u.s. However, it did seemingly appear to just ease a little bit the tensions at the end of last week as despite the kind of verbal rhetoric being very aggressive from trump The the talk was towards the end of the week that the two parties were in fact looking to hold dialogue in In order to get this phase one implemented Which was more positive and certainly has helped underline some of the stability in markets, but going forward Quite the interesting assessment from goldman sacks They're saying that tariffs are a key metric for yuan in the us china rift and one of the points I want to make with this is that They see related news moving the currency more than anything else So what they're basically saying is if you want to really track the market sensitivity to any of the trade war headlines that come out the best thing to do Is look at the yuan the price movement as to ascertain then well how spooked or not are the markets becoming Now you can see here this extreme weakening of the chinese yuan through the summer of 2019 when the trade war was really in full swing and in escalation mode at that time And we we obviously crossed that really symbolic seven level if you remember and that was the first time that had Really happened ever before and you know previously they defended that level But that then opened up quite a gradual push higher before saying things have calmed through Through the back end of last year. However, things have ratcheted up a few notches more recently so One of the things here is you know going back to having a quick look at that that kind of The price activity from overnight for the chinese yuan How is it performed could be quite a key metric To just identify then at the broader market sensitivity to these developments moving more More positive or more negative going forward Interestingly though that that being said yuan volatility has now fallen to its lowest level in three months at the moment So I think goes some way to show that you know despite this kind of bluff and bluster coming out of the president You know saying he's got you know evidence about the origination of the chinese virus and all this type of thing And as I've said before in those briefings a week ago I do think a lot of that is just political noise in him trying to make a point and also detract From the economic domestic situation that he knew was going to come in the form of payrolls And if you think about it, he's kind of come out of it pretty scot-free No one's really pointing the finger at trump with payrolls even though we lost 20.5 million jobs in america And the us were one of the slowest in the world to respond with their global lockdown And isolation and social distancing and so on, you know, that's the the art of Of the trump management in that sense All right. Well, that that's pretty much it on the macro menu just to finish if you do scroll down So let me just show you if you scroll down to the bottom There's a few other interesting things Charts and so on included in that but there's a weekly calendar So in here not just economic data I do include speakers So I mentioned drone power speaking on wednesday, which will be a key one But there are a lot of fed speakers throughout this week. You've got bostic today Tomorrow you've got what five fed speakers in total before 10 pound on wednesday More fed speakers to come on thursday as well But all the other things you need to be aware of can be located at the end of that report All right, that is it any questions for me Just leave a comment on the video be happy to help and remember to subscribe to the channel to get access to The updates throughout the week. Okay guys, it's going to leave you with that any technical questions Just feel free to to reach sam norse on on twitter Just search for his name and his handle s north 19. All right. Thanks very much guys. Take care


Hey there, NJRoot22.com here with another supermarket roundup for the weekend starting October 19th, 2018. We're going to start off, there's my flyer, please visit the website, that's why we do these things. We're going to start off with Kings real quick. Again I'll repeat it, if you haven't watched this video and it's most likely you haven't because for some odd reason I put all the right keywords in YouTube and somehow my videos aren't getting much traction yet. We'll see what happens once I get more people reading. It's kind of unfair. I've been putting up weekly videos at least twice a week for the last six months and nothing is really taking off here. I guess people don't like seeing stuff. They like quick hitting videos with graphics and 5,000 camera angles and not any conversation. But anyway, real quick I looked at Kings. We don't really shop here because they're expensive, but they do have a good deal on these organic Bell and Evans Whole Chickens, they're $2.49 a pound, that's almost half price. See I'll show you there, it's, what's going on here? My focus isn't working today, here we go. It's a good price there. I want to talk to you about apples real quick. I don't eat a lot of fruit anymore with the exception of blueberries, raspberries and an occasional strawberry or blackberry because of the sugar content, the sucrose content, this natural quickly available sugar. The other day I had maybe a third or a quarter of a red apple, I picked up at a local farm stand along with some nice organic cheddar cheese and I got Restless Leg Syndrome and if you Google carefully you can find older websites maybe about 10 years old with articles that talk about how sugar pretty much is the cause of Restless Leg Syndrome. For anybody that has it is really eating too much sugar and especially the bad sugar but I ate like I said a quarter or a third of one of these honey crisp apples and I had awful, awful, awful Restless Leg Syndrome for one night, it was unbearable, it woke me up. I mean I didn't just wake up, I mean I woke up fully awake, it was just not good. Anyway let's move on here, I got an interesting side note, next week I'm going to do a story about this place, French Town Market, we've talked about them, it's a member of the IGA Food Co-op or whatever you want to call it, buying Grocer's Association, they actually have like 4,000 stores country wide or world wide so that's why they're able to compete at all with any of these bigger places like Shoprite or anything like that or Wegmans or even Walmart. But we visited the French Town Market and I just wanted to show you the difference in their ads, just because they're a member of the same cooperative, I think this is the French Town Market and there may be some differences other than being part of IGA, they may have other relationships with suppliers and so on but no offense to the bishops of White House, the ad just seems to be more fun to read, I will write the French Town Market, they group things up nice and I'm not a big fan of this pattern they have here, that kind of takes away from it whereas IGA bishops of White House use a lot more white space, I still somehow find this easier to read on this side and I'll explain what the deal was, sorry for the reflection, I'm using a poor light studio here but they have a very interesting flyer and glossy and shiny but I didn't see anything over at bishops of White House that stood out in particular, so I'm just going to remind everybody that we shop here at these local places just to give them business and we do find good things there from time to time, they have good spices, they have good prepared food, the fried chicken apparently is a home run and so on, so just keep that in mind, keep these guys in your rotation even if it's for 20 or 30 bucks a week, okay next, I'm not going to talk about stop and shop, I'm not a big fan, I don't care, I mean these blueberries look pretty good, they have other junk ice cream and soda and name brand stuff, I'm not going to talk about them, there's nothing really to say, until I start shopping there periodically maybe once a week just so I can tell you what's going on there, but shop right, we shop at most, so I'm going to look at this, I didn't do any pre-research on these flyers, I just got them in the driveway a few minutes ago, so I'm going to really quickly go over what we like upon first glance here, you know we don't do soda, we don't do candy, we don't do chips, and we don't do anything with a lot of sugar, Frito-Lay snacks, I don't care if it's organic, I don't care if it's made of vegetables, look at the carb content of the food that you eat and you can pretty much get a fast track on how to get better health, you just got to look it up, I'm going to repeat this over and over because it's not getting enough traction in the mainstream, they're talking about paleo diets and they're talking about all sorts of other things, those are unsustainable because they're very restricted, just watch out for the sugar you eat and that includes natural and organic things like vegetables and fruits, you got to watch out and same thing with those cauliflower pizzas I mentioned last week, they're loaded with carbs, so let's take a look here, pork spare ribs, that's a good deal this week, buck 99 a pound, the galbani muts is 249 a pound and awesome, I just see this here, the Hormel Black Label Bacon is 399 a pound again, that means starting Sunday June 21st, I am going to stock up on both of these, the galbani muts and the Hormel Black Label Bacon and I highly recommend exclusively the low sodium version of this bacon because it is salted with sea salt and you can add your own salt as it's cooking and you can make it as salty as you want, it's fantastic, I just made some today, my last pound of bacon, I'm very excited the Hormel is on sale, like I told you, these things go on sale regularly, at least once a month, once every six weeks, buy six or seven pounds of it and keep it in your fridge, it stays good for a long time, I don't know what's good here, I wouldn't buy any canned anything, this is that freshetta, don't bother, I mean it's easy, it's fun to eat, it's addictive and I just don't recommend it, you will find out eventually, you will because you're going to search, like you may have health problems, you'll search the internet and you'll try one thing and another thing and then you're going to end up stumbling on a low sugar diet, here's the Hormel again, fantastic, I love it, let's see what kind of meats they have on sale this week, again, do not, I don't recommend Clayton, it's from Australia, believe me, when the butcher tells you don't buy Australian or New Zealand meat, don't do it, I just had a sip of my wine, I was supposed to take tonight off from drinking wine but I'm not, okay, wholesome pantries, good chicken, 93% lean ground chicken, it's good for your dog, I wouldn't eat something that lean, personally, I like 73%, 73% ground beef, I'm gonna do a little recipe about, I mean maybe a recipe or a review about how good and juicy 73%, I don't care how oily it gets when you cook it, it's really just beyond flavorful, you gotta look into it, the Sweden Sonsburgers are 73%, they're delicious for that exact reason and you can get 73% ground beef at Aldi, I think it's Aldi, I've been saying Aldi all along but I think it's Aldi, I don't know, but it's dirt cheap, it's $2.19 a pound and you really can't go wrong and here's a good deal on sabrettes this week, I like the sabrettes, $2.99 a pack, sabrettes, beef, franks, those just taste so good on the grill and yeah, yeah, yeah, nitrates and all this other stuff, what are you gonna do? I think they occur naturally and I think this whole anti-nitrate thing is a new way to sell something, that's how people break into the market, think about it, like bacon has been bacon for a long, long time, now all of a sudden we have 50 kinds of bacon, you know, nitrate-free, uncured, I like cured bacon with nitrates and I think it happens naturally, but like I said, watch out for salt, find something with sea salt in it, I promise you it's better for you, these half, these cooked perfect meatballs, I don't recommend them, they're a little bit carby, but they're good to have in the freezer for emergencies, you never know and here's something interesting, vegan white castles, vegetable sliders, jeez Louise, I mean that's sacrilegious almost, I mean white castles, I remember eating like 20 white castles at a time when I was a fat load and just feeling like crap for solid half a week, but veggie I think, I haven't looked at the carb cans, we're going to do a little review on these, not review eating, but just commentary on them, I think they have more carbs than the meat ones and as you can tell I am not a big fan of carbohydrates and I'm one of the few people that stayed with this program and didn't let other fad diets like win me over, I have proven success with not eating sugar at all, no sugar in my coffee, no cookies, no bread, no pasta, I sometimes have some carby things like peanuts, I might eat a few too many of them because they satisfy, but I try my best and it's very hard because carbohydrates are addictive beyond belief, chips, snacks, crackers, Oreos, Gatorades, Kool-Aids, Snapples, all of these things, ginger ale, they're all bad for you Snapple, I mean it's redonkulous, I don't care how good the chips are, chips one or two and aren't going to kill you, but you're going to end up eating handful after handful, Welch's fruit snacks, no good, Uts, no good, these cauliflower crackers here, from the ground up, look how much expensive they are, you get 10 ounces of cauliflower snacks, they drop the big word, 9 dollars, that's ridiculous, that's like 15 bucks a pound, no, don't do it just because it has cauliflower in it, unless it's 100% cauliflower, forget it, I don't know, I'm rambling here 11 minutes, so I'm going to try and finish up here real quick, I'm just, it's so hard to shop for food, when you know that here's something good, the Pyrex's are on sale, if you've dropped a few and you're running low on storage, this is a, I'd say this is a nice little deal at the shop right this week, all their glass storage containers are half price, so if you need to stock up or if you want to get some as gifts, and they have a whole lot of other brands on sale like these baking dishes and so on, the Good Cook, these I'm not going to recommend, short term, yeah, but long term, no, they don't really last, but I think that's all we have for this week, I'm trying to promote healthy things and I can't, I mean it's even tough, like these baby foods, like they're loaded with sugar, to any kind of baby food, it's really hard to find something that's not packed with sugar and the kid gets fired up and doesn't want to sleep, it's really hard, I mean if you could keep your kid on whole foods and you know like avocados and cauliflower and meat and good fruits like blueberries and raspberries, you may have a chance with your kids, but if you're feeding them you know full oranges, if you do feed your kids juice, water it down from the get go, don't ever introduce full strength juice to your children ever and watch out for things like, I mean bananas are tough, kids love bananas, they're easy and cheap, but pineapples and bananas are really packed with sugar and same thing with, if you're going to give a kid an orange, don't do orange juice, do like a clementine is always nice, a small little clementine, let him eat it and that's it for this week, have a nice weekend and I'll tell you more about the Pennington market next week, it was an interesting trip down to French town, enjoy, enjoy the brisk