I deliver mail and I was out on my route delivering mail and the supervisors two of them whipped up in front of me and my dad's in bed was in bad shape he's on oxygen and I thought oh something happened to my dad and so they come running over to my car and I said is it my dad and they said they shook their head no and I said is it one of my kids and they went like that and I said is it my son my son was a senior at the University of Pittsburgh and a girl that lived on the second floor her ex-boyfriend set a fire and the smoke you know killed my son while he was upstairs sleeping this boy more or less was I don't know if he was stalking her or what but you know jealous or whatever and you know set the fire and intended to kill her and you know Joey didn't make it you know we buried him on Monday I think it was Thursday was when the detective called me to tell me that it had been an orson and he wanted to let the family know before it hit the news while I was by myself when he told me and yeah I just couldn't imagine the trials would start and stuff and the first time I took my daughter was when the trial was actually going to start and ever since that day that she seen this Matthew I've had to sleep with her and that was back in July Chrissy and I was watching TV the other day and they said how one act stupid act can affect so many lives and she looked at me and she said we really know that mom don't we but you figure this boy was jealous or whatever about this girl living with this guy or I don't understand what he was thinking of but his stupid act has ruined lives of people he didn't even know existed we've never done anything to her I've never gotten a traffic ticket nothing and to be punished like this further and we'll be punished the rest of our lives because of someone we didn't even know if he would have been in an accident with a where he was drinking or if he would have it been a car accident where it was an accident or something but to know that someone deliberately while he was sleeping but where is the safest place you think your child is in bed sleeping he's the with this kid did is he has no idea how he has affected all of us I mean just the emptiness the sick feeling that you have inside you every single day not a day goes by that I don't do not shed a tear not one day had gone through a couple of years of problems my wife found a boyfriend and moved away to Cleveland and then my mother started getting sick so I came home to take care of her and we were together for about eight months and then she passed away and I had just got a job with a real estate company where I was going to do their maintenance for them and I was in an alley behind their property bringing a key back somebody followed me back to the property well these are all fun-loving people you know and I thought it was mistake I thought it was a joke somebody pulled in behind me and got out and approached me with the fact that he thought I was somebody else he thought I was somebody that had stolen a stained glass window from his one of his properties and I just happen to be working across the street from one of his properties and I thought it was a joke I really did and so I I really didn't put up any resistance and then he he slid on a metal baseball bat and he started to attack me I was obviously the wrong person at the wrong place at the wrong time but I backed up he took out my knee I went down he just started beating me like crazy I never even defended myself which is the the hard part because all my life I've defended my family my friends I've worked as a doorman at local restaurants and clubs and I always had confidence myself to take care of myself and my friends and my family and when he took me out like that it was it it changed my life I'm very angry and I mean from time to time I'll burst into these screaming fits in my own health you think I'm talking to myself I ain't talking to myself I'm just mad it's tough when you can't physically do what you want to do I can't climb ladders I have no knee my muscles and tendons are crushed and that's gonna take four or five years to maybe build up the strength in my knee that I could even climb a ladder I've been going through a lot of depression I sit on my couch and cry and I live like a spider I mean I keep my blinds closed I I'm scared to death the answer to phone or answer the door and that ain't right I'm six I'm almost six three I weighed 225 pounds and yet I'm scared to walk from my house to my car you know what aggravates me the most is I was just at the point where I was ready to rebuild my life I look to the future and I see things but it's I'm not impatient but I really want to get back to where I was my house was broken into while we were at work and I it was when I but I actually had called kept calling my house it's because my husband gets home before I do and I was gonna be inviting him over to my parents for dinner and that's where I was at and he picks up the phone and immediately and says the house has been broken into you need to come home they kicked in my back door and they had taken our 36 inch TV that was in the living room they took our 25 inch TV that was in our bedroom they took just a lot of weird stuff that we kind of don't understand why they would take it but like towels out of our our closet they took like wash rags there just seemed like there were so many little things that just kept coming up missing every day that went on I'd find something else they took my camcorder which had my my youngest son's newborn video in it which that's probably the worst thing they could care less what's on that video they're not gonna watch it they probably just threw it away but that's that's my you know that with my baby my newborn baby on there that I I'm never gonna get that back a detective like try to get fingerprints on unlike the computer because they had messed with that and he couldn't we've never heard anything back I just wanted my things back you know I mean granted they came into my house and I don't think it would have been the greatest to get it all back you know or to find it I still would have been that I think that would have probably been traumatizing too is knowing that they had them and then they got them back you know it's like what have they done with them we ended up getting a security system but there's still times when like if I come home by myself and I have the kids and it's dark our garage is detached from the house and it's like I just want to grab the kids and run and I make sure that my oldest son doesn't leave the garage until I've got the baby out and I'm just I just almost want to run hurry up and lock the door run shut the door I mean I don't even set anything down until I've shut the door and locked it and I mean that's not a good feeling and I do that anytime I'm by myself I'm always really scared you do you feel violated it's just like it's like they've been in your home they've been through your things and I just it's not a good feeling and that's something you know yeah they're there for 20 minutes to wreck your life for you know your sense of security for a year it seems like such a small thing to you know to get burglarized and that it wouldn't be that big of an impact or it wouldn't really affect you since you weren't there you weren't physically being harmed but it is I mean it just mentally it messes with you and just not feeling safe in your own home is not good not a good feeling at all it happened when I was between I can't remember the exact age but it was between five and seven but I never told anyone until I was a senior in high school 17 the one that I was abused by was my at the time my best friend's older brother he was about seven we were the same age he was about seven years older than us and all started off with the hugging game he would take us into his room her and I individually and just we would sit on his lap and and he would hug us and to any child that feels really good it was a fun game you know but he was very weird about it he said we couldn't we couldn't even talk to each other about it we couldn't her and I couldn't talk to each other about it every time she would leave the room he would jump on me he never I was never penetrated vaginally it was always oral mostly he would lay on top of me I couldn't even breathe he would say stupid things like well why didn't you say something how could I when I told my mom I remember we were in my room and I just kind of broke down I started crying and I ran I ran out of my room and ran downstairs and it was like I didn't want to tell you this I didn't she's going what don't you want to tell me and finally I just laid it all out there for and she she was very I mean she was upset she was hurt and I didn't tell her who it was I didn't tell her for about a year or so who it was it took a while for me to tell her she got me into therapy right away it was never a question of are you sure this happened you know are you sure you're not making this up or you're just remembering things wrong she never doubted me and to this day I wish I had said something to her years before but I couldn't I was depressed for a long time I didn't even realize I was so depressed for a long time all I ever did was sit in my room and watch television and eat I have a hard time trusting people or I just jump in like feet first without them giving me any reason to really trust them usually I find I've gotten burned like that a lot of times but it's like because I did I feel as though as when I was that young I wanted to be able to do that with someone and I couldn't so now I'm still kind of looking for that when I walk into a room within 10 minutes of being in that room I know every way out of that room including if I had to jump out of a window and it's just it's like instinct to me now I don't even realize that I do it anymore but just I'm always looking for an out I'm never trying to be trapped in the corner never again I recognize now that it's not about sex at all it's all about power and I really do fear that a lot of them get off on that the whole idea of you hurt me you know you're hurting people I think that's what that's what they're looking for it's weird for me to talk about this because it's so third-person because I do feel as though she's still with me she's still in there that little girl is still you know she cries sometimes still and it's like it's okay it's okay to cry I mean I'm still angry I think I have every right to be angry but it doesn't it doesn't rule my life anymore it was part of my childhood to be beaten so badly that my eyes would be swollen shut for days on end I had an uncle who was he was a sadist he was brutal he was he was absolutely insane and I suffered beatings at his hands time and time and time again he would be the only father figure that I would know as a child because my mother and him lived together all throughout the earliest part of my childhood my mother was as well she was a violent person any any small thing that annoyed her it was taken out on his kids my mother handed me over to a pedophile when I was five and by then I you would have thought that I was conditioned to handle the horrors of my life but this added a new dimension to my suffering and I found it almost unbearable to deal with so as a kindergartner I would have to leave kindergarten or class and go home and have sex with this man who was in his 50s I remember the long walk home and crying and falling down and having to get back up and walking on and falling down and crying and getting back up and walking on I had to adjust to that situation I had no choice but to shoulder this responsibility and I learned that food meant sex for me young in life I would turn to drugs and that would be a friend of mine for a long long long time my journey has been an enormous struggle for me I've known years and years of depression I've I've I've been physically sick in times in my life I lost my job I had no friends I I assumed I would die never expected to live through this I don't think being abused as a child goes away there's things that I do deal with as an adult now that it's kind of like problem troubleshooting I maintain taking care of my mental health and my emotional health and I've learned over the years to be fairly good at it I I know that I am a high-functioning abuse survivor I have a propensity towards honesty whereas my siblings don't they they want to just forget it they don't want to think about it but I think it's more insidious than that we were made to witness crimes committed against one another over and over again it's like we're we hold the truth and we can't get near one another it's too horrible to even see each other is so painful when I was 16 years old a senior in high school my girlfriend and I were coming home from snow skiing and she had just taken her eyes off the road for a minute and we hit a truck and my neck was crushed and it left me paralyzed from the neck to him after I had recovered from my injury and kind of built back some self-esteem and confidence I was a senior in college and had a boyfriend shortly after we became engaged I heard him refer to me as his pretty bird in a cage and I think it just sent chills down my spine when I heard that I always had to come home from class on time and tell him where I was going and when I would be back and when I came in from class I was a few minutes late and when I came in the door he was sitting on the couch and he had a butcher knife in his hand he grabbed me by my feet and pulled me out of the wheelchair he climbed on top of me and held my arms down with his knees and he started choking me and stabbing the butcher knife around my head at that point in time I realized my life was in danger and I didn't want to stay in this relationship but it was just three weeks later that he had pretty much held me hostage throughout the night and I was admitted into the hospital with a broken arm broken nose broken ribs and my sternum was permanently damaged then at that point it took the hospital the police the university and my family all stepped in and got me out of that relationship and it was about a year later when the trial was starting for the first charge and I went into that courtroom with the utmost confidence that the person that did this to me would be punished for what he did it was a five-day trial on the witness stand his attorney portrayed me as a woman with a severe disability that no other man would ever want or ever love and how wonderful his client was for giving up his life to take care of me and in a jury of 12 my batter was found not guilty that was completely devastating for me I felt re-victimized only this time by the system what was so difficult for me is I knew there were other people that went through experiences of domestic violence but I felt like I was alone as a person with a disability going through that and there are so many layers of issues with my disability that contributed to the abuse made it more difficult to get away and to recover from I had moved to California after the abusive relationship and I was out there and I had just completed my master's degree in social work and this was six years later in 96 and it was one Friday evening about 8 o'clock I was sitting on the living room floor and I had my bedroom window open not unlike all the other apartments in my complex and I heard a noise in my bedroom I called for my caregiver to come to see what the noise was and the next thing I saw was she was walking out of my bedroom backwards and there was a man that had a gun to her head and behind him was another man with a knife then the man with the gun went to the sliding glass door opened the door and walked two more men so there were now four men in my apartment and they pulled all of the foam cords and all of the lights out and they burglarized my home and I was right and repeatedly told that they were going to kill me I know that the reason I was chosen is because of my vulnerabilities with my disability I cannot run from them I could not fight back I hardly even have the strength in my voice to be able to yell I'm an easy victim an easy target those four men were never caught I see all of the additional stigma in our society for people with disabilities I see how they are being targeted for crime and abuse and for me I felt like those experiences happen to me and I don't want to just bury them and not do anything with those experiences and people with disabilities is a huge population and I think it's important for everyone to realize that people with disabilities want to be treated fairly and equally in our society like everyone else and we want to have the same services and the same respect as everyone else in our society I am a victim of domestic violence and I think the thing that was the hardest to realize was that I really was a victim my access moment was very controlling very isolating from friends family church he monitored my coming and going he didn't let me talk on the phone you know my family was stupid and I was stupid and the things that you know the apartment that I lived in that he moved into with me it was stupid you know everything wasn't up to his par including me and so you know I was constantly in a race with myself to see you know what I could do to make it better or fix it and it just kind of snowballed from there and the crux was when he threatened to have me killed you could put on your your social face when you were outside but the thing that was most frightening was I was literally afraid to go home at the end of the day work was a comfortable setting church was a comfortable setting nobody was going to do anything but then you get in your car to go home and you start having panic attacks the daily impact once he threatened to have me killed it was like you were outside looking in because by the time that happened you know I wasn't really talking to my family because I had pretty much pushed them by the wayside they didn't like him or how he treated me because they could see it of course I was I was too involved in the relationship to see and so there was nobody to go to I kept thinking in the back of my mind that domestic violence happened to somebody else you know on TV it's it's some other person or some other background or lifestyle or age of a person you know I didn't think that it would be happening to me you go through the whole realm of emotions one minute you're mad as a hatter that you allowed yourself to do this or that he did it to you at the next minute you're so glad and relieved that you're out of it he was sexually abusive and I think of all of it that was probably the most painful and still probably the hardest to get passed you know when you're in a relationship with somebody that you love and they use sex forcefully it's devastating it's demoralizing I've gotten to the point where I know I'm better off without him and I'm moving forward me being a victim of domestic violence has really affected my whole entire family and friends structure for the longest time it was the elephant in the room they tiptoed around all of the issues the fear has eased a little but it's still there it's still fresh enough emotionally I just I can't imagine going out on a date again or getting into a relationship again I can't imagine being intimate I'm afraid that if I put myself out there it'll happen again my daughter and I were going to the grocery store in the morning in November of 1979 and she was five months old and we were hit head on by a drunk driver it was his fourth time for drunk driving he had no license he had no insurance he drank a pine a whiskey about before 10 o'clock in the morning my daughter was in a car seat and she the straps just busted on it and she came around and hit the back of her neck right here on the corner of the dashboard and crushed you have a cervical section of your spinal cord and it goes C1 through C10 to right about here and she crushed C4 5 and 6 these three vertebrae right here and they kind of twisted like this and went across and then ended back on top of her spinal cord and she was paralyzed from the neck down and I broke about 14 bones from the waist down and I have a couple of plates in my left foot and I have a rod in my right leg you know she always had pneumonia and she had atelectasis and she had bladder infections and she had tracheostomies and other kinds of infections and she had seizures I had seven years of playing tug-of-war with God and I knew that he'd win someday she died and that was in 1986 I try and have the good pictures in my head of Laura instead of the bad pictures now but the bad pictures plagued me for a long time and the hatred was just unbearable for the man that hit me I mean that was like just carrying an extra tumor you know a big tumor and so you've got the hate you know it's just intense hate and you lay in bed at night and you know I used to concoct all kinds of plans on how I was gonna kill this guy and then I thought I'm not gonna kill him I'll hit him in the back of the neck with a lead pipe I'll have somebody hold him down I'm gonna paralyze him like he did Laura and then you just go on with these scenarios and you just build this up so now you've got all this hatred for this person and you get all this pain and sorrow sometimes the people who do it even after they've been picked up for drunk driving they still don't see themselves as a problem you know because maybe somebody isn't in their face showing them a picture of their dead daughter or telling them what that felt like or how horrifying it was to have her chew her fingertips off because she couldn't feel them and was covered with blood one morning you know let's and now let's start thinking about what if it was your kid what if somebody did this to your kid let's start thinking about that a little bit you know or happened to your mom or your boyfriend or your girlfriend or your wife or whatever you know start thinking in those terms a little bit and you know maybe that'll help deter you you want to drink drink take a cab my son Anthony Dyer who's 16 years old had gotten had joined a gang that I didn't know about and the gang that he was in they murdered him my son hadn't come home and it was on my pay week and hadn't came home for two days that Friday I was going to call the the television station and asked him to air my son on the TV but that evening I heard about a body had been found and I didn't feel comfortable with that I went down to look at the body and when I what I saw it didn't look like my son because it was his face was swollen he was he was frozen it was it was a bitter cold the only way that really identified him was by his finger in a biting and it was hard it was very hard to deal with that they end up beating him then they put him wrapped him up and put him in a a towel and put him in a trash can so the leader of the gang told him to 69 of them which went meant killing so one of the guys went down down the hill and kicked him in his head until he wasn't breathing anymore and he took his gym shoes off that I had just bought him when they finally picked him up the the guy that had kicked him in his head he had his shoes on I didn't even know my son was in the game until after he passed he was only 16 he was to me he was still a baby I had a memory lost people that had known for years I couldn't remember where they were I couldn't go back to work for at least three weeks you know people would question me about different things and I don't want to deal with it I would cry all the time it's just your whole life you know you just it just turned upside down none of them showed any remorse next year three of them will get out they plead bargain some of them got seven years one of the girls that cleaned up the blood at the at the apartment that he had got beat up at she's out the leader of the gang got 15 at the 30 the one guy that had his gym shoes on he got 12 years no he got 16 years and a guy that took his clothes off and burned them he got 12 years so they all got time if you've committed a crime and it's totally shut out and you're going on with your life well if that family they're not going on because their life is forever changed is it would never never be the same and it hurts because I know my son wanted to live and it wasn't fair it was not fair name is Chi Yangon and I am the sister of Dong Yangon it was a long and difficult decision to sit and write the statement bringing up the feeling of memory is still something I avoid doing it was a Sunday and I think he was playing basketball with our church youth group Korean church youth group kids they went over to a local school court to play and five or eight white teenagers came over he said he didn't know them they asked you want to play five on five and they were they agreed they started playing basketball it seems like the white boys were purposely fouling pushing them shoveling and that happens in basketball so my brother was the oldest among the kids who went with him he said come on you know let's play let's just play a game you know why are you guys pushing and they would keep on pushing snicker about it together you know so it came up to a point where it grew into argument and my brother said I had enough we're gonna go and that's when they started kind of who the fd you think you are about five or eight more kids came so they were in total about 16 12 to 16 kids he heard from the back there's that chink standing there alone let's jump on him now when he's alone my brother turned around and they circled him and they're like chink go back to your country and we're not even from China after they spit on his face they knocked him to the ground four or five maybe even more kids started to step stomp and kick his head face and back he was lying on the ground he did not fight back all the facial cheekbone was all just cracked into pieces nose bone fracture and he lost sensation there was a nerve damage so he lost sensation on this four of his upper tooth and whole bottom all the part he doesn't have sensation till now and it's been about a year since that happened the police report was that they wrote it up as if it was a gang fight that they were playing basketball they got an argument it was a mutual fight they thought it was a Chinese gang versus American white gang and that offends me just because of the description of how I look and how we are the image of my brother falling on that concrete floor and people stepping and just kicking with shoes on his face I couldn't get that image out of my head what goes through once my when they kick and step on a living human being just covering his face and head to survive what does one have to do to deserve all this getting into an argument playing basketball I had a chance to read my victim impact statement at the court I wanted to see the kids who did this to my brother and I after I read my statement I said just because someone speaks less English than you just because someone looks a little different than you and whether it fits the same that doesn't give you any right to step to kick or spit on someone's face and the response I got from him was I'm sorry I caused you such inconvenience and but if you think I'm a racist I'm not because I don't treat people by their color hate crime you know it's not something explicit that you can see you are just hitting or you are just punching someone to your anger or your frustration but then pack the hurt that that person has they carry on for life and the people around that person who loved him or her they carry on the same pain to see someone that you really love suffer and go through pain that's not an easy thing to carry because it always stays in the back of your mind and it really hurts Joe was on the second floor the first floor apartment was empty and the basement floor was an inhabited by the man that killed her he apparently had gotten the idea that Jill was narking on drug dealers in the area and he had been dealing drugs out of the apartment she had been there too much she had no idea he was waiting for her when she returned home from work at one o'clock in the morning and he punched her in the face stunning her and got her tied up and spent six hours killing her raping and killing her eight years later it still seems like yesterday they did not want any of us seeing her because she had been so badly beaten I was allowed to hug a body bag that was on the elevator at the funeral home and I basically said the goodbyes for the entire family at that point Jill's murder left me with this huge gaping void in my gut and I felt like if I ever let anybody close enough to see that they'd either think that I'm crazy or they would be terrified by what I had to show them I became really suicidal after Jill's death and wanted very badly to be with her my oldest sister became pretty agoraphobic it's still difficult for her eight years later to leave the house without a strong family member with her my brother who had problems with alcohol prior became full-blown alcoholic now I am hyper vigilant so unless I know everything that's going on I'm not comfortable eight years later I'm still sleeping with the door locked I have insomnia now stomach problems that make it impossible for me to eat out it's like traveling grief so it just keeps remanifesting in different different areas but it's all the same pain and anger that are sitting in there I got the the nickname angry Amy when I was working at the salon and I don't think I've been showing any anger at all you know I some of my reactions you know if this guy that's in prison for my sister's homicide if he gets raped and killed I don't care and maybe that's what they were perceiving in a vanger that's I don't see it as being anger I see it as being realistic I can't care about his life he was found guilty of first-degree murder he was found guilty of rape it was death penalty plus 60 the death penalty was then overturned on appeal to a life sentence the biggest thing as far as as offenders in homicide goes is the fact that there is not just one victim you're not just stopping at that one person they are destroying many many lives my quality of life will never be the same as it was you know my innocence is completely gone there's very little that life can show me that is going to be as good as when Joe was alive my daughter was trying to stop an argument between two more girls her friend of hers and the young lady that stabbed her and she walked up to her and tried to you know protect and well how do you say stop the fight so it wouldn't start rather and the girl stabbed her in the neck and it hit her a order and she bled to death you see my daughter suffered from MS she couldn't fight she couldn't walk straight on a straight line when I got to the hospital they did tell me that she had a pulse and of course that made me feel better because I knew she was you know she had life but then a doctor came out and told me she didn't make it and that's when I kind of went to pieces I guess you might say I do know that there are a lot of people who commit these crimes and think that they should be shouldn't be held responsible but they should and they should be punished because you can't go around taking people's lives and not be punished I think the girl got put 10 years she thought she should get out because she had a son at home who needed her and I wanted to jump up and say something but that big son of mine was with me and he held me down because we wasn't supposed to talk really and I wanted to tell yes my daughter had a mother at home that needed her but she couldn't have her if she ever comes to court again or tried to get out on parole again I wanted to be there too because even though I know I won't get my daughter again I miss her if people just realize how it hurts the family of these people that they hurt Kio and maybe they could understand I wouldn't want that to happen to me so I can't do it but we have some people with no conscience I guess one year later that my son I lost my youngest son and that didn't help matters either but God has been with me and I'm doing the best I can and I'm sure they wouldn't want me crying every day or you know suffering because of them I can hear them and I'm like you got to go on you have to live so that's what I'm trying to do I was carrying on doing routine housework and I had gone outside for a few minutes to check a dryer vent had come back in left a door unlocked just for a matter of moments and before I could go back to close that door to lock that door man came in through that door came up from behind me threatened me took me out to the woods behind my home where he robbed and raped me I really feared that I'd never see my husband or children again but he did let me go but with the words you remember that I know where you live and if you tell anyone I'm gonna come back and I'm gonna kill you and in a small town like we live in to relocate would have been you know of no use at all especially my husband's a police officer he'd been upstairs asleep during that time that the man came in but he'd been up for over 30 hours and I knew that if I screamed then I was afraid that it would the end result would be not only my death but his death as well I'm the protector I'm the the husband and I felt like I had failed and as a police officer especially and here this happens not only in my own town but in my own home my husband called the police I begged him not to I had I knew that this man meant what he said that if I had told anyone that he was going to come and kill me of course I went into immediate shock I was like a zombie it was like this can't have really happened to me you know I've got to be dreaming and I just can't wake up I couldn't sleep when I did finally sleep there were nightmares I couldn't eat I couldn't think I couldn't focus the kids and I would be having dinner with Debbie in the evening and she would just explode seemingly for no reason and you know it would shock us and then we'd realize okay something was just said or there was some reference that that flashed her back and we had to learn how to accept that and deal with it anytime I was in a crowd I was looking wondering you know is he following me is he looking at my children when I would kiss my children goodbye in the morning I'd wonder are they gonna come back through that door in the afternoon because I just that really didn't truly felt that if he couldn't get to me that he especially would probably grab my daughter a lot of people told me after I was attacked at Debbie at least you're alive and I remember thinking you know I'm not alive I felt like I couldn't trust anybody especially of course strangers I never felt comfortable anywhere I never felt safe anywhere you never get over this I see an anger sometimes in my son whenever he hears about a woman that's happening to another woman because he knows firsthand what it does to the entire family it's not just the primary victim that's involved here it's each and every person that touches her life and my husband of course he felt guilty because here he felt like he was able to protect the whole city of Williamsburg but yet he laid asleep while his own wife was taken out of her home in the middle of the day so the guilt was phenomenal there's multiple victims I was a victim both of my kids suffered my daughter was afraid to go out from the house to the car at night my son both of them were actually bullied at school over this because we did go public with it it was six and a half years after the rape that he was found and he was found because he had robbed two other women Virginia has a law where they will take a sample from all convicted felons they do a DNA typing on them testing on them put it in the data bank the computer immediately does a cross check with other evidence that has been entered and because he was there for another robbery he got caught I want to be able to meet face to face with him I guess in some ways it's like facing your fear I want to look at him and I want to tell him I'm not afraid of you anymore I need to be able to look at him eye-to-eye and say you can't hurt me anymore it's over and it's done and I need that for me I was walking home from a dinner party it's 11 o'clock at night walking down Pennsylvania Avenue in our nation's capital and was accosted by three gentlemen that grabbed me and drug me behind a dimsy dumpster and beat me and kicked me they knocked out my front tooth bruised a couple of ribs and all they really got out of the attack was $20 I literally gave them my bill fall they took 20 bucks out that's what it was in there threw it back at me and they took off I got up and I ran I ran home for the rest of the blocks during that entire night I didn't sleep I didn't bathe I just remember laying in my bed staring at the wall and the ceiling and thinking God I'm so thrilled to be at home and so thrilled to be alive we called my parents after the police officer had left and I had one friend on one phone and I was on another and I just wanted to assure my mother that that I was first of all okay that I was going to be okay but I told her and she was on one phone my dad was on another and so it was kind of hectic and crazy and they were both very upset and my mother was very emotional and crying and you know you never want to hear your parents be that just so sad you know I had a great doctor I had a great dentist they worked with me but financially it was very difficult my parents were extremely helpful in that situation if not I don't know what would have happened I still think about it when I'm walking down the street whether it's you know six o'clock at night or nine o'clock at night I really don't walk after nine I know that sounds crazy but I take cabs everywhere now long term I just don't think that you ever ever recover from it it makes you so much aware and it makes you a little bit more jaded about people that you pass on the street you never know what's going to happen there were three individuals that were captured that were doing random acts of violence roaming Capitol Hill I think that they need to take responsibility for their actions I think that certainly so they can't do this to anyone else I think that monetary damages should be a consideration also counseling I mean just all these different all these different factors but first of all I'd really just want to know why I don't understand what makes people that way


It is a pleasure to be here. I think this is my seventh time I think here. It is always nice to be here. I think you already heard a lot about sub-signal predictability and different ways of making sub-signal forecasts yesterday from Fredrik and Ajay Lois-Adrian. And today, together with my colleague Doisan from Jamstick, we are going to introduce something about the seasonal forecast. How we do seasonal forecast? The basis for the seasonal forecasts and also design some of the designs used for seasonal forecasts. I think each center has a different way of doing forecasts as we hear about that yesterday. ECMWF has very complicated way of making initializations and then do the forecasts both for sub-signal as well as seasonal. Our center we do it much simpler way. I think Doisan is going to introduce that later. Before that I will tell you something the basis on what we make the seasonal forecasts. I think this diagram already we saw several times. This shows different scales of processes from weather to climate change and as we as we know the predictability of weather systems is pretty high. The line here is showing you the predictability, skill of predictability and purposely I have not put the label here. It is quite qualitative. You can think like if this is pretty high the sub-signal is somewhere sitting here and seasonal is coming closer to weather predictions not at that stage yet. But we are doing quite well and mainly because we are doing well mainly because of some of the tropical climate phenomena and most important them is the Elino and the next one is the Indian Ocean Dipole and some other phenomena like here. Sub-tropical dipoles, the Atlantic Nino, the Marital Mode, NAO, AO and Southern Alginal Mode. As I said the most dominant one is the Elino Southern Oscillation and the predictability lies in the ocean as shown by this Birkenis feedback method. Actually his father started all those equations which is the basis for today's numerical weather prediction as well as climate predictions. He combined the Southern Oscillation which was discovered by Gilbert Walker trying to understand the droughts in India. He found that the sea oscillation between Tahiti and Darwin is linked to droughts and floods in India. Later Birkenis combined that with the already known fact that some years the Peruvian coast experience warmer than normal condition and then he linked that with the Southern Oscillation to say that this is part of the same phenomena coupled phenomena which can transit between two stages between Elino and La Nina through this normal condition. Normal condition and La Nina conditions are basically similar. La Nina is kind of strong of manifestation of the normal condition when you have strong easterlies and that can cause upwelling and cooling of the eastern tropical peak. The Elino is just the opposite of that and that happens because either easterlies become weak or we have strong easterlies from the west and that causes downwelling Kelvin waves, warm Kelvin waves which are coupled to those winds propagate eastward and call the Elino. The transition between these two phases are not clearly explained by Birkenis feedback process. Birkenis feedback process only says once we have a system like this, this can continue for some time and that gives us the predictability. Once we have some system like that, we know that after six months we will get the Elino and if we can observe that and put that into the model, we can clearly say when that transition phase will happen and when that will end into Elino. But the problem is then how we go back to La Nina and that's where the dynamical model comes to the picture and those can give us predictability for transition between Elino and La Nina. Why you want to learn Elino and La Nina? Because of the large influence we have from these tropical phenomenon like one is the Enso influence. You can see that Enso influences most part of eastern Pacific and also western Pacific, maritime continent, India, even Africa. And also we have teleconnexion to North America as well as South America. And because of that many people try to understand Elino and try to improve the predictability of Elino. Besides Elino we have also several basin scale phenomena. One of them is the Indian Ocean Dipole. Indian Ocean Dipole is kind of mirror image of Elino in which we have like warm anomaly happen on the western side of the basin. Usually eastern side is warm but some years the winds become weak and we have strong south easterlies and that can help upwelling on the eastern side and then downwelling Kelvin wave propagate westward and then we have warming on the western side to create this kind of dipole like structure in the in the SST anomaly is coupled to the atmosphere. Again because of those downwelling Kelvin waves and upwelling in eastern eastern Indian Ocean near Sumatra we can expect some kind of predictability because once we have a downwelling Kelvin wave we know that it takes some time to reach Sumali coast and that gives us the predictability and that's how the model gets the predictability. Again it has its influence. The western side is warm so that's why Kenya and East Africa gets lot of rain during positive Indian Ocean Dipole years. The maritime continent like Elino becomes dry and cool during positive Indian Ocean Dipole years. Opposite thing happens when you have a negative Indian Ocean Dipole. Of course also like Elino, the Indian Ocean Dipole also has teleconnexions going to the East Asia, Australia and South America. Good question. Usually the Elino as you know takes almost a year to transit from western Pacific to eastern Pacific and then coming back. The IOD is not so long it takes about three to six months. Yes, very much seasonal and very much locked to monsoon season actually. It starts somewhere between May and June when you have transition to some Indian summer monsoon and then it continues through the summer monsoon and through the fall and then towards November, December when the transition goes to the maritime continent monsoon the IOD gets terminated. Mostly coupled to the maritime continent winds. The southeast alleys are very important here. Like to maintain this upwelling near Sumatra we need these strong southeast alleys rates and that can continue until we have the winter monsoon. Once winter monsoon sets in the northerly comes in so that's why southeast alleys dies and the phenomenon terminates. Monsoon and this yes yes yes it is. And then later we identified this is our boss from Jamstek. So together with him we worked and identified this new not so new but we call it Elino modoki. Modoki is a Japanese word which means something which look like but not quite like the Elino. So it's a kind of fake Elino in other words. It looks like Elino. If you are on the western side like if you're in Japan and maritime continent this is kind of Elino. The east side is warm the west side is cold but if you are on the South American coast this is not Elino because during Elino year South American coast will become very warm and you expect a lot of fish mortality and many other problems. Of course we get a lot of rain but during Elino modoki years when central Pacific is warm eastern Pacific is not warm it's like a lanina condition. So that's why for people in South America and even North America it's like lanina but people in maritime continent and East Asia maybe it's like Elino. That's why you call it as Elino modoki. What happens is like on western side we have westerlies which kicks in the Kelvin waves, warm Kelvin waves but they don't propagate all the way to the eastern Pacific because on the eastern side the studies are still strong so they don't allow the warm Kelvin wave to go all the way to the eastern side. So that's why we have warming in the central Pacific. It's kind of Elino but doesn't go all the way to the eastern Pacific and this also has its own life cycle like three to six months not one year like Elino and its influence is different compared to Elino. The opposite phase is lanina modoki. This one? So this means we still have downwelling on both sides upwelling in the central Pacific and this means upwelling on eastern side western side but downwelling in the central Pacific. The thermocline gets depressed in the central Pacific not so much on the eastern side or western side. It's more like lanina condition but central Pacific is warm and we are interested to know about Elino modoki and its predictability because the influence is quite different particularly on the west coast of US. You can see here this is the climatological rain for Japan, China and US. This one is these three plots are related to Elino modoki and the bottom three plots are related to Elino. You can see that during Elino modoki years the west coast become very dry simply because it's like lanina. Eastern side is still cold so they don't get so much of rain whereas during Elino year because the eastern side is quite warm they get a lot of rain like Peruvian coast. So that's why it's very important to know whether it's Elino or Elino modoki for those regions and also southern Japan is very dry during Elino modoki years not so dry during Elino years and Angjidiver valley here gets a lot of rain during Elino modoki years not so much during Elino year.  Similarly recently we found a coastal phenomenon which we call the Ningalu Elino. Ningalu is a Ningalu reef here of west coast of Australia and in some years we observe a lot of coral bleaching and fish mortality and those are the year when you have warm anomalies here and those we call as Ningalu Nino years. Opposite thing happens you also have Ningalu Nino when you have strong cooling and good fish productions in west coast of Australia and that kind of regional phenomenon also very important for regional rainfall variability as well as fisheries and other societal activities. So that's why as you can see through all those climate phenomena it's very important to understand the air sea interaction, ocean atmosphere interaction and that is the basis for the predictability of seasonal climate forecasts. If you don't have dynamics ocean wave dynamics coupled to the atmosphere we don't get the potential predictability source from the observations to get into the model and predict them on seasonal time scales. This is what was done in early 80s to try to predict Elino. Now Elino is a kind of linear phenomenon in tropical Pacific where the heat content in the operation is coupled to the atmospheric wind and that coupled process moved from west to east to give you Elino and then return back to give you Lanina. For example if you for some reason you have Westerlies, strong Westerliebrost in western Pacific that can cause like the the downwelling Kelvin wave to propagate from west to east at the same time because of the wind stress call we get negative anomalies on both sides of the equator. The warm anomalies Kelvin wave anomalies go eastward at the same time cold anomalies move westward and these cold anomalies after some time gets reflected on the western boundaries and come back to to eastern coast to initiate the Lanina condition. That is the potential source of predictability in the Elino phenomena and that was exploited in 80s by simple coupled model and one of the well-known coupled model is Kenjabek model where one layer of the atmosphere was coupled to two layer of the ocean and it was very good in providing predictions on several seasons ahead to two years ahead which was then replaced by GCNs. GCNs are more complex we have the ocean model which has all its components and the ocean models are on usually spin up from initial state of rest and then and then we have the data assimilation some of the models don't have data assimilation like the syntax frontier model which will be presented by those and later is not doesn't have a data assimilation only takes SSD nosing and some models also do the atmospheric initialization for even seasonal forecasts but we don't do that in syntax frontier model it's not so essential for seasonal climate forecasts to initialize the atmosphere model because once you provide the SSD or the subsurface conditions to the ocean the ocean will feed back to the atmosphere and then atmosphere will adjust to that SSD to provide the seasonal climate predictions but some models are also some centers are also doing atmospheric initializations and once we initialize both then we coupled them and ocean model runs and then exchange the flux fluxes with the atmosphere and atmosphere returns back wind strength and heat flux heat fluxes and in that sense we provide the forecasts. There are several WMO centers which are giving now the forecasts these are the designated WMO centers Environment Canada we have I think several representative here from some of the centers Environment Canada and then the KMA from Sea of Beijing ECMWF and the Moscow Washington CP Tech is the Brazilian Center then the Pretoria South African Weather Service Poama Melbourne Bureau of Meteorology and JMA from Tokyo and Meteor France Toulouse. So all these centers are designated center for providing climate forecasts global producing centers for providing seasonal climate forecasts but to get that information we must be one of the member of this. Either it should be member of one of those GPCs or the regional centers or RCOPs or NMHS. At the moment the data is restricted to those users. These are some of the samples from those prediction centers. This is a 2014 Lino predictions by ECMWF and the Met Office. You can see some differences in the predictions but usually the predictions are close to each other. 2015 Lino predictions when it was predicted as you might be knowing 2015 was followed by 2014 Lino which is very rare. Two consecutive Lino's are very rare and most models were not getting the 2015 Lino until February of this year. So the triggering also is an important factor in the models and it's important to observe when the model captures the signal. Most model gets around February March the following years the coming Lino of that year. Now if you are not able to get the forecasts from those global producing centers you need not worry because there are several other centers like IRI, AFRA climate center even in Jamstack we provide the forecast online for users. Like here we are comparing the 2015-16 NSO outlooks from IRI plumes. There are several models available, model predictions available from the IRI site. APCC also has several models. Jamstack we have only one model and then we can compare that with ECMWF model. For the 2015-16 NSO outlooks we expect this NSO will terminate around January February this year and then return back to Lannina's days somewhere towards the December 2016 to January 2017. A little bit about our prediction system the Syntax Frontier model. You can see here the Syntax Frontier model actually originated from Italy. There is a center INGV not far away from here in Bologna and they started this model and then we borrowed that model and tried to improve it using the R-simulator. At that time this was the R-simulator number one computer in 2002 but now I think in top 500 and the atmosphere model is T106 with 19 level. The OSEN model equatorial enhanced to half a degree but usually it's around two degrees away from the equator and both models are coupled every two hours. We have a second version now. Doshan is going to present a little bit about that. Yes we have more number of labels now and uniform half-degree global. Before we go to the prediction the first thing we do we try to understand if the model is actually capturing the Elino, the Dipole and some of the tropical phenomena besides of course the extra tropical phenomenon. As you can see here the model was able to simulate the Elino, the Dipole together. This is one of the model years not necessarily related to any of the actual calendar years but nevertheless it was simulating the IOD and the Dipole very well. So we had some confidence but not all the Dipoles are related to Elinos. So that's why we wanted to see if the model is able to capture the Indian Ocean Dipoles together with Lanina. So this is one of the years when the model is capturing one of the Indian Ocean Dipole phenomenon together with Lanina. So we had some confidence that this model has basics to capture the Elino, Lanina and Dipoles on different phases. Then before we go into the predictions we try to do the verifications which is one of the very important process in seasonal climate forecasts. I think Andy Robertson is going to talk about that later next week. So this is the simple skill score of the Jamstex-Sintax Frontier model. At 3 months lead you can see that the model surface temperature, sea surface temperature predictability is quite high. The correlation is 0.9 between model predictions and the observations. At 6 month lead we still retain very high predictability in the tropical Pacific but started losing predictability in the Indian Ocean. At 9 month lead we have still good predictability in the tropical Pacific. So ends of predictability remains even at 9 months lead time but we are losing the predictability in the Indian Ocean. At 12 months lead we have almost no predictability in the Indian Ocean. We have quite high predictability in the tropical Pacific which means the model is pretty good to predict Elino one year ahead. Now the new model is able to predict even two years ahead. However the predictability is not so high in the Indian Ocean mainly because the Indian Ocean is having several scales of phenomena and their interaction is not so easily captured by the model. So that's why at longer lead time the predictability in the Indian Ocean is not so high. So as you heard from Adrian and Frederick yesterday we can improve the predictability. This is just a semi-multi-model ensemble. So I think he is going to talk about that. What we did in this like we had three different coupling physics. The same model but we employ three different coupling physics. So in essence they are quite different because the coupling is different. So that's why you call it semi-multi-model ensemble. Although the model is same we have different coupling physics for different ensemble members. I think he is going to talk more about that. So we also participated in multi-model ensembles to see if we have any improvements in predictability skills by combining our predictions with several other predictions. And this was done by Bin Wang in IPRC using the APCC, Apec Climate Center models. They had I think eight models. And from that again we find that they separated the June-July August predictability from December-January February predictability. And we can see that the predictability is quite high. I think this is three months lead quite high for both December-January-February and June-July-August. They had a marginal improvements at 12 months lead but basically the syntax of predictability remain quite high among all the model members. This is another example where we try to understand the predictability again, the skills of the predictability. The black line here is persistent line. So we think that this month's SST is same next month and the following months. These are the lead months 1 to 6 months ahead and these are the anomaly correlations. So you can see that the the syntax predictability remain quite high above 0.9 even at 6 months lead time much above the persistence level here. And most of the other models we are doing quite well as well. So most of the models are doing quite well to predict a lead six months ahead. And we find that if we can add the trends in the global warming, the global warming trend itself gives some predictability. The problem is to capture that trend, the problem is to capture that trend in the model is not so easy. So if you just take the observed trend and add that to the climate predictions, we find there is some improvement almost 0.2 correlation improved at one month's lead time. Compared to Elina predictability the dipole predictability is not so high. We also have two barriers. For Elina we have only one barrier spring barrier but for dipole we have both spring barrier as well as winter barrier. So that's why the predictability of dipole doesn't go very well beyond six months lead time. And once we have those predictability we try to apply some of those as Adrienne was mentioning about this. We had a project in South Africa, Babatunde is here I think. So he was part of that project. For the first two three years we tried to understand the climate variability in Southern Africa and then the predictability skills of syntax model and also the models available in South Africa. And in this phase starting in 2014 last year it will continue until 19. What we are trying to do is using those climate predictions we are trying to develop an early warning system for infectious diseases like malaria, diarrhea and pneumonia. Several centers are involved from both sides and most importantly we are going to use the vector model which Adrienne has developed. And this is some of the preliminary results as you can see here. The bottom figure here is showing you the malaria prevalences in South Africa. As you can see here the Limpopo province and the coastal belt gets lot of malaria incidences. Mostly those are important from Mozambique and the model was doing quite well actually to capture that. And we are very confident that this model can be used together with the climate model predictions to provide the early warning system. So we understand that models are doing well but models also have biases and models also are missing some of the the the transition phases of Elino and other climate phenomena. And to improve that we have to improve model resolutions we have to improve model physics. In fact some of the models are models are now trying to dissolve clouds so that we don't have to have cloud physics in the model. Going into 3 to 5 kilometer resolution so we can we can get rid of cloud physics. Besides all those things at the WCRP working group for seasonal to internal predictions we have taken up some of the projects to improve the model predictions and to reduce the model biases. The the first project led by Bill Merrifield from Environment Canada and also Mikhail Toltsky from Russian Atmospheric Sciences. So in that project what we are trying to do is like we know that most models are actually having problem for longer term predictions. When you go from multi-year to decayal predictions most models are problem to to to have the drift from from observed climate to model climate. And to avoid that drift they are trying to initialize the model at every one year or two years so that the model stays around the observed climatology. In addition to that for subsistional predictions we know that the model shock when we initialize the atmosphere and ocean model we have a lot of shock in the initial state. And Mikhail is trying to improve that initial shock by by improving the initialization schemes. And we hope that through that we can reduce some of the biases and shock so that we can improve predictability both for subsistional as well as decayal scale predictions. The second project we are taking now is the snow cover how to initialize snow in the models. In last 3-4 years we had a project called GLES Global Land Atmosphere Couple Experiments. In that the soil initialization was very important and many many centers participated in that to improve soil moisture initialization and that was quite successful. Now now what we are trying to do is to initialize snow both land snow as well as the sea ice and polar snow in the models and it is led by John from Seoul and even from Norway. Then of course we have the problem in teleconnection although we are getting the Elino dipole and other climate tropical climate phenomena very well the teleconnection from that those climate to extra tropics are not well captured by the models. So we have the third project to to understand that the the projection of tropical climate to extra tropics and the the atmospheric gross we are propagating around the globe taking those signal from one region to another region. To understand those variability in the model and the biases in the model this project is going to work on that. Besides those three projects as Adrienne was mentioning yesterday we also have the database climate system historical forecast project in this we are going to archive all the hind cast results at the moment we have already several models 1 2 3 4 5 or 15 models here and all these model results will be archived not only for from for the present state but also all the future states. So we have one of the archives where you can understand why one model went from bad state to a good state what kind of model physics they change over the time so that we can we can replicate those things in other models that's one of the ideas where why we are archiving all the data. At the moment most of the monthly data are available and now they are trying to archive the daily data. This will be a good point if you want to understand or try to to to work with the seasonal forecasts before going to forecast you can try to understand the the the model physics using those models. I'll stop there and maybe Doison will take over from here. Any questions to me? You can ask up. Okay good okay I will talk about the syntax of seasonal prediction system. So first three slide I'd like to run over the basic information about the seasonal prediction so you know that there's a difference between seasonal prediction and weather prediction so seasonal prediction is a kind of climate prediction so it's a target is to predict the climate so climate is a statistic of weather for example the monthly average as a number of any day in a month and the number of typhoon in season so so weather prediction is try to predict the weather itself a few days later and so this is an inter-season time scale this is important so S2S project but my talk is a target is a seasonal so target is a monthly average or three months average and read time is three to sometimes up to nine months read time so as the beheaders are already explained the potential source of seasonal predictability is mainly due to answer predictions so because contribute for success of seasonal predictions the contribution from ocean is important because ocean variability is very slow relativity atmosphere and the ocean have a large heat content relativity atmosphere those character of oceans can work as a seasonal potential source of seasonal predictability in particular tropical ocean is crucial because topical ocean is very warm and it can drive the global atmospheric circulation so here I would like to introduce the two pioneering pioneering work by Dr. B. Hackness so he found the AC couple phenomena in the tropical Pacific and also in 1964 and three years later he found the teleconnection from tropics to meet Russia this is a fundamental theory of the seasonal predictions so so we need to the numerical numerical seasonal prediction system should be based on ocean atmosphere couple model so the numerical weather prediction mostly employed the standalone atmospheric model because on the assumption that the oceans do not change in the relatively short prediction period for example one week however for prediction of the answer and it's induced seasonal anomaly we need to application on ocean atmosphere couple model so this is a schematic diagram for the numerical prediction system as a first step we know the current we have to know the current state of the climate in particular ocean state is important for seasonal prediction so we need to the observational system for example morning buoy or satellite observation and those information should be assimilated in the model this is in other word it is called the initialization and also we will conduct the numerical integration by a couple GCM using the supercomputer so by the way this is our new supercomputer called the action rate so we have a basically three step for the numerical seasonal prediction the question is which step is the most critical for prediction scale actually this here is the shows the relative reduction in SST error SST forecast error over the NINIO 3 actually NINIO 3 is a L NINIO index by the ECMWF seasonal prediction system so ECMWF successful improve the seasonal prediction scale for L NINIO actually total gain is shows by yellow column so about the 35% relative to the probably 1996 operational original one and this red column is a contribution from the ocean initialization and this blue column shows the contribution from model development so this figure shows the model development and ocean initialization are equally important for improving the seasonal prediction scale so I would like to focus on our seasonal prediction system index F so Bayhara already shows this slide so this model is developed at JAMstack under the use of collaboration so here I would like to introduce how we developing this model and its initialization scheme so first about the model development so actually the in classical method modeler try to tune to the individual uncoupled GCM separately so tune the atmospheric model and change the ocean model and try to couple between between two that's in contrast to the classical method our model development we tune the it directly by improving the AC couple physics so we focus the potential impact of the strong ocean current on wind stress actually this is important to simulation of the climatology and the acid viability so this figure shows the linearly regressed SST and the surface wind anomalies map on the linear theory SST index and this figure is from observation so we can find to the El Nino structure right but and this is a control run by the syntax F but this is the effect of an ocean surface current on wind stress totally neglected in the control run and this F C P L run in this one the surface wind stress is calculated by like this so this is a density of air and CD is a drug coefficient and we are is a surface wind speed and we were the surface ocean current so this key is considering the impact of the ocean surface current on wind stress so you know this model and focusing on the warm water pool region and this is actually the warmest ocean in the world and it's very important for their connection so if focusing this area F C P L run it's much similar to the real ocean right so this is the one example of our model development and also for about the initializations so we use the SST matching scheme and this scheme is a syntax F model is a couple model and OGCM SST is strongly matched towards the observed SST in a couple mode so in a couple mode the AGCM forced by such generated OGCM SST and then the OGCM forced by the AGCM simulated front but with matching to observed SST this is the SST matching scheme and this is one of the simplest approach for the initialization but it can provide a compatible initial condition between the atmosphere and ocean this compatible initial condition is very important because of this the balance between the ocean and atmosphere can reduce the initial shock you are in forecast and also this simple schemes can capture the elliptical subsurface ocean structure in the tropical Pacific this figure shows the Hockmiller diagram you know the time devolutions and longitude and you know the shows the 20 degree iso-sum steps and normally along the equatorial Pacific and left column is from the soda a soda is the ocean simulation data is including the subsurface information but left column is the SST matching run with syntax F so you know that we are just using the SST information so you know this is very similar between two so we can say to the SST matching our SST matching run can successfully capture the subsurface structure in the tropical Pacific actually this success depend on the performance of the AGCM and OGCM and also how do we generate ensemble member in our system so yesterday Tomkinson already explains our necessary of the ensemble member because the atmosphere ocean couple system involves a strong non-linearity so variation in initial condition and the physical schemes needed to diverse solution so need ensemble prediction to reduce the prediction uncertainty so we generate the ensemble member associated with the different initial condition and different physical schemes so I have three strengths of SST matching initialization and we have a three coupling physics scheme for considering the effect of the ocean surface current on wind stress so three times three times we have a totally nine ensemble member employed for seasonal prediction and the initiated every month in 1982 to present okay this is a summary of our system and this shows a schematic here if we start the prediction from May 1st 2050 so we have a continuous SST matching run with a syntax F and if we start the prediction from May 1st we can use this to restart fire from the SST matching run and we can run the freedom actually this is a focus run and running to the up to the target season okay so how skillful is our system for El Nino prediction so this is a time series of NINI 3.4 NINI 3.4 is an index of El Nino it defines the sea surface temperature normally average the in this region and this black line shows the time series of NINI 3.4 and generally speaking when the NINI 3.4 beyond the 0.5 degree we can say the El Nino is occurring so we have a several El Nino event but this event is the strongest event in El Nino in 1997 and 1998 actually WMO estimates the 34 billion US dollar loss in the world due to this the strongest El Nino so as a prediction it's very important from not from scientific viewpoint but also the economical and societal viewpoint so first I'll try to focus at this event and show the prediction scale and this is just focusing on the NINI 3.4 in 1997 to 1999 to 1998 so black observations and this blue line shows our prediction from the 1997 April 1st initialization here and this red line is an ensemble mean so when the model initialize at the point the other point so you know the tropical Pacific was almost neutral state when the prediction started at that point our model success or predict of El Nino occurrence actually the all nine member is beyond the 0.5 degree so we can say the our model success or predict El Nino occurrence from the neutral states however unfortunately the amplitude is rather underestimated this one oh yeah it's a prediction that is the April 1st and prediction end by match so it's about 12 months predictions okay and and the next so when the model sorry initialized okay sorry at that point actually at that point we El tropical Pacific was already El Nino like state but actually this is a moderate El Nino state when the model initialize at that point you know our nine ensemble member predict those El Nino like condition enhanced in the coming six months so actually I already said the 1997 event was the strongest event so Nino 3.4 beyond the about the 2 degree so now is some research of course this extremely strong El Nino as a super El Nino so I can say the our model is successful predicted the occurrence of the extreme strong El Nino from a moderate El Nino state okay this is for the 1997 and 1998 event so next question the how skillful is our model for other ends event to answer this question I'd like to explain the first is about the three months read prediction line and the next few years so this is also Nino 3.4 index and this green line is the ensemble mean prediction from the 1997 April 1st initialization right and so April match April May June and just a three month read prediction I brought it this red cycle and also this purple line the prediction from the May 1st 1997 so May June July I brought it the three month predictions here and also blue green blue color shows the June first initialization so I also brought it to the three month read prediction and this connected this wine and this wet lines cause a three month read prediction and same as this six month read prediction is shown by blue line so this is a fear of the time series of Nino 3.4 black is observation and the red is our three month read prediction and blue line is a six month read prediction so after first grant so it looks similar right and our model is very skillful to predict El Nino actually correlation between observation and three month read prediction is close to the point nine and also observation correlation between observation and the blue six month this time also beyond the point eight five no it's very high however not good for the timing of initiation for example here we have some failure for initiation of El Nino right and also we have failure of the termination phase of El Nino so our system have a problem to predict the timing of initiation and termination okay anyway our system is very skillful for answer prediction relative to other model so this figure is also already Bayhadasan shows but I will explain the detail so this is a correlation between observation and prediction so wine is a perfect point five is a relatively low scale and X axis shows the forecast read month from one month to six months and this line is a SSD persistence line so this shows a lagout correlation and this is a each model prediction system and actually this is just for the Nino 3.4 index in 98 to 2004 so that line is our model so our model is shows a very good scale relative to other model and question is this is up to six months how about predictions beyond six months this time so actually our system is a skillful for the two-year answer prediction this figure also similar to previous one but up to 24 months read time so this is also SSD persistence and this is a nine ensemble members prediction by syntax F so up to 24 months still it's close to correlation close between the observation and prediction close to point six so this is a skillful from a statistical analysis significance okay this is an ensemble member yeah each member yeah each member is below the mean okay so this is a each ensemble members prediction and this black line is a bit average in the nine ensemble and calculate the correlation so sometimes there's a ensemble means can reduce the uncertainty of predictions okay so by the way how about this year's answer predictions this is also Nino 3.4 and blue is our observation of the DCS so now is a strong El Nino is occurring actually this year's El Nino is almost similar to the strongest El Nino in 1997 1998 and actually this wet line is a prediction from the May 1st initialization this year so our mother nicely predicted the super El Nino go in this winter from the May 1st and now is a way we are here so we have a strong El Nino now and also what will happen next two years so I we predicted the this strong El Nino may turn to a La Nina in next year so this year may be similar to the strongest El Nino in 1997 1998 other time also strong El Nino as quickly phase transition and to turn to the La Nina I sorry model predict to the probably this year's El Nino also phase transition to La Nina in next year and also this is an example for our prediction about the coming winter coming December January February average by our model and this is a sea surface temperature anomaly and we can find to the very strong El Nino we would pass it really persist in the coming winter and this is a surface air temperature anomaly and most of the world we experience the warmer the normal condition in the coming winter and this is the rainfall predictions and green colors of the wetter than normal and gray three the brown color shows a drier than normal so probably the is a western euro so Western US will be drier than normal but for Brazil is a will be drier than normal due to the mainly due to the El Nino okay so this is my summary so syntax F1 is now is a very skillful to predict El Nino however I show the there is a room of improvement for the timing of initiation and termination prediction so how should we improve our system so I already explained the model development and also initialization I call important for that so strategy one I'm another developing the model the previous one version of the syntax F1 and I'm not preparing the second version so updating the model updating version of the model and enhance the vertical resolution in atmosphere model and enhance the horizontal resolution in ocean model and include the sea ice model so I'm no writing paper about that and but I want to show the preliminary result about the syntax F2 so this is also prediction scale actually based on the correlation for the December January February averaged between observation and prediction from November first initialization so you know prediction from November first initialization and target is a December January February so it's about read month is about the two or three months read time and left column shows prediction scale for two meter air temperature normally and right column for the prediction scale for rainfall anomaly and upper panel for the syntax F1 and lower panel syntax F2 so we can find some improvement in the southern hemisphere by syntax F2 and also some improvements of the rainfall prediction in syntax F2 okay so about and also strategy to about the ocean initialization I said the success of the SST matching initialization scheme is that over a region where ocean variability is strongly constrained by the couple ash interaction so actually this figure is from the Arun Kumar papers in 2013 shows the local simultaneous SST and rainfall anomaly correlations and point by point correlation and it so correlations for each season and for example if the correlation between the SST and rainfall anomaly is highly positive that means a warm SST is correlated with a more rainfall so that means a warm or SST drives a conviction as a more rainfall that situation there's a ocean drives atmosphere and this is good for SST matching so for example in tropical Pacific we can hide we can show the high positive correlation between SST and rainfall so that means that tropical Pacific AC couple is strong however for Indian ocean we can find the negative correlation right so negative correlation means a cold SST is correlated with a more rainfall because a more rainfall is less sunshine it's cool sea surface temperature so that means the atmosphere drives the ocean temperature so in that case is a atmosphere is driver so and the AC couple feedback is weak so SST matching is good for the capturing the subsurface structure in tropical Pacific but not enough for the tropical Indian ocean and also tropical Atlantic this is the one problem of SST matching system and another one that this scheme cannot resolve high-frequency variability related to the mud injury and oscillation or a westerly wind burst etc so this event can have strong implications for the timing of initiation and termination of answer event so we have to include those information of a system so I know that developing the new scheme based on SST matching that's using the three lever collections and collaborate it with Dr. Andrea Strollt, OCMCC and Bologna. Okay so this is a two strategy and actually we have another way for the improving the seasonal prediction that's a strategy 3 to discovery of new potential source of seasonal predictability I already explained the traditional approach for seasonal prediction to predict the tropical climate variation and then to predict their pair connection to the mid-ratch that's another possible way discovery of other potential source of predictability for example regional air-sea couple phenomena in mid-ratch due because mid-ratch due roughly speaking mid-ratch due is an atmosphere-derived ocean but sometimes in mid-ratch due we have a regional air-sea couple field market and also soil moisture overland and stratosphere, snow cover, sea ice and ozone okay many other we have other possible potential source of seasonal predictability. Here I would like to introduce the one example for the regional air-sea couple phenomena because I recently published a two paper about that so we found to the new potential source of seasonal prediction for West Australia this is named the Ningal Minyo so actually after late 1990s global warming and the negative phase of the inter-decadal Pacific Ocean can let the warming oceans of the west coast of Australia. So absolute SST values is warm-ups and here is actually the mid-ratch due but it's kind of the topics region and new climate phenomena was born that's the Ningal Minyo. This is very similar to the Pacific El Minyo but this is a close off the west coast of Australia and it directly influenced on the rainfall over West Australia. So actually for Ningal Minyos so Kataokaetowal is a pioneering park for about that he calculated the EOF first mode of the year-to-year SST variability and defines the index for Ningal Minyos as an SST anomaly averaged in this region and this is a time series of the Ningal Minyos index and this is a one degree line so from 1984 to the late 1990s so no event beyond the one degree for the Ningal Minyos index but the recent 50 years we have a four event beyond the one degree line right so that means in recent 50 years we have experienced a frequent occurrence of Ningal Minyos. Actually our model is nicely predicted this one because the duties are linear prediction skills and this is published by my paper and also this is important for the potential source of seasonal predictability of western Australia. I also calculated the simultaneous correlation between sea surface temperature and the rainfall. This is a previous period and this is a recent 50 years period. In the period one no correlation between the local sea surface temperature and the local rainfall. However in recent 50 years we have a high correlation between sea surface temperature and rainfall so roughly speaking we can say to the local SST can drive local rainfall in the recent 50 years and also I checked through the prediction scale for rainfall. Actually this is a correlation coefficient between observation and prediction from September 1st. Sorry target is the austral winter, austral summer. This is the rainy season in Australia and our model have no skill to predict the rainfall, seasonal rainfall over western Australia in the period one. Recently our model shows enhancement of seasonal prediction skills of rainfall over west australia so that's why the Ningal Minyos can work as a new potential source of seasonal prediction for rainfall over western Australia. So detail is published in these papers. Okay so this is a take home message. Our system is very skillful but still it's not good predicting the timing of initiation and termination of the Ningal. So how should we improve this system? The model development and ocean initialization are equally important and also another way to the discovery of new potential source of seasonal predictability. Thank you.


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